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Sample records for estimating population od

  1. Estimating Bus Loads and OD Flows Using Location-Stamped Farebox and Wi-Fi Signal Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuxiong Ji

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Electronic fareboxes integrated with Automatic Vehicle Location (AVL systems can provide location-stamped records to infer passenger boarding at individual stops. However, bus loads and Origin-Destination (OD flows, which are useful for route planning, design, and real-time controls, cannot be derived directly from farebox data. Recently, Wi-Fi sensors have been used to collect passenger OD flow information. But the data are insufficient to capture the variation of passenger demand across bus trips. In this study, we propose a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate trip-level OD flow matrices and a period-level OD flow matrix using sampled OD flow data collected by Wi-Fi sensors and boarding data provided by fareboxes. Bus loads on each bus trip are derived directly from the estimated trip-level OD flow matrices. The proposed method is evaluated empirically on an operational bus route and the results demonstrate that it provides good and detailed transit route-level passenger demand information by combining farebox and Wi-Fi signal data.

  2. Bridged Race Population Estimates

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Population estimates from "bridging" the 31 race categories used in Census 2000, as specified in the 1997 Office of Management and Budget (OMB) race and ethnicity...

  3. Efficient real time OD matrix estimation based on principal component analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Djukic, T.; Flötteröd, G.; Van Lint, H.; Hoogendoorn, S.P.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we explore the idea of dimensionality reduction and approximation of OD demand based on principal component analysis (PCA). First, we show how we can apply PCA to linearly transform the high dimensional OD matrices into the lower dimensional space without significant loss of accuracy.

  4. Multi-Path OD-Matrix Estimation (MPME) based on Stochastic User Equilibrium Traffic Assignment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Otto Anker

    1997-01-01

    Most conventional methods for estimating trip matrices from traffic counts assume either that the counts are error-free, determin-istic variables or they use a simplified traffic assignment model. Without these assumptions, the methods often demand prohibitive calculation times. The paper present...

  5. Global Population Density Grid Time Series Estimates

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Population Density Grid Time Series Estimates provide a back-cast time series of population density grids based on the year 2000 population grid from SEDAC's...

  6. Estimated population near uranium tailings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bloomster, C.H.; Brown, D.R.; Bruno, G.A.; Craig, S.N.; Dirks, J.A.; Griffin, E.A.; Reis, J.W.; Young, J.K.

    1984-01-01

    Population studies, which took place during the months of April, May, and June 1983, were performed for 27 active and 25 inactive mill sites. For each mill site, a table showing population by radius (1/2, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 km) in 16 compass directions was generated. 22 references, 6 tables

  7. Density Estimation in Several Populations With Uncertain Population Membership

    KAUST Repository

    Ma, Yanyuan

    2011-09-01

    We devise methods to estimate probability density functions of several populations using observations with uncertain population membership, meaning from which population an observation comes is unknown. The probability of an observation being sampled from any given population can be calculated. We develop general estimation procedures and bandwidth selection methods for our setting. We establish large-sample properties and study finite-sample performance using simulation studies. We illustrate our methods with data from a nutrition study.

  8. Estimation of population mean under systematic sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noor-ul-amin, Muhammad; Javaid, Amjad

    2017-11-01

    In this study we propose a generalized ratio estimator under non-response for systematic random sampling. We also generate a class of estimators through special cases of generalized estimator using different combinations of coefficients of correlation, kurtosis and variation. The mean square errors and mathematical conditions are also derived to prove the efficiency of proposed estimators. Numerical illustration is included using three populations to support the results.

  9. Density Estimation in Several Populations With Uncertain Population Membership

    KAUST Repository

    Ma, Yanyuan; Hart, Jeffrey D.; Carroll, Raymond J.

    2011-01-01

    sampled from any given population can be calculated. We develop general estimation procedures and bandwidth selection methods for our setting. We establish large-sample properties and study finite-sample performance using simulation studies. We illustrate

  10. Estimating salt intake in a Caucasian population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toft, Ulla; Cerqueira, Charlotte; Andreasen, Anne Helms

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: A simple and valid alternative for 24-hour urine collection to estimate populational 24-hour urinary sodium excretion would be desirable for monitoring sodium intake in populations. AIM: To assess the validity of the predicted 24-hour urinary sodium excretion using spot urine and two ...

  11. Population estimation techniques for routing analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sathisan, S.K.; Chagari, A.K.

    1994-01-01

    A number of on-site and off-site factors affect the potential siting of a radioactive materials repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Transportation related issues such route selection and design are among them. These involve evaluation of potential risks and impacts, including those related to population. Population characteristics (total population and density) are critical factors in the risk assessment, emergency preparedness and response planning, and ultimately in route designation. This paper presents an application of Geographic Information System (GIS) technology to facilitate such analyses. Specifically, techniques to estimate critical population information are presented. A case study using the highway network in Nevada is used to illustrate the analyses. TIGER coverages are used as the basis for population information at a block level. The data are then synthesized at tract, county and state levels of aggregation. Of particular interest are population estimates for various corridor widths along transport corridors -- ranging from 0.5 miles to 20 miles in this paper. A sensitivity analysis based on the level of data aggregation is also presented. The results of these analysis indicate that specific characteristics of the area and its population could be used as indicators to aggregate data appropriately for the analysis

  12. CDC WONDER: Population - Bridged-Race July 1st Estimates

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Population - Bridged-Race July 1st Estimates online databases report bridged-race population estimates of the July 1st resident population of the United States,...

  13. ODS iron aluminides

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wright, I.G.; Pint, B.A.; Ohriner, E.K.; Tortorelli, P.F. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)

    1996-08-01

    The overall goal of this program is to develop an oxide dispersion-strengthened (ODS) version of Fe{sub 3}Al that has sufficient creep strength and resistance to oxidation at temperatures in the range 1000 to 1200{degrees}C to be suitable for application as heat exchanger tubing in advanced power generation cycles. The program has two main thrusts: (a) alloy processing, which involves mechanical alloying and thermomechanical processing to achieve the desired size and distribution of the oxide dispersoid, and (b) optimization of the oxidation behavior to provide increased service life compared to ODS-FeCrAl alloys intended for the same applications. Control of the grain size and shape in the final alloy is very dependent on the homogeneity of the alloy powder, in terms of the size and distribution of the dispersed oxide particles, and on the level of strain and temperature applied in the recrystallization step. Studies of the effects of these variables are being made using mechanically-alloyed powder from two sources: a commercial powder metallurgy alloy vendor and an in-house, controlled environment high-energy mill. The effects of milling parameters on the microstructure and composition of the powder and consolidated alloy are described. Comparison of the oxidation kinetics of ODS-Fe{sub 3}Al alloys with commercial ODS-FeCrAl alloys in air at 1000-1300{degrees}C indicated that the best Fe{sub 3}Al-based alloys oxidized isothermally at the same rate as the ODS-FeCrAl alloys but, under thermal cycling conditions, the oxidation rate of ODS-Fe{sub 3}Al was faster. The main difference was that the ODS-Fe{sub 3}Al experienced significantly more scale spallation above 1000{degrees}C. The differences in oxidation behavior were translated into expected lifetimes which indicated that, for an alloy section thickness of 2.5 mm, the scale spallation of ODS-Fe{sub 3}Al leads to an expected service lifetime similar to that for the INCO alloy MA956 at 1100 to 1300{degrees}C.

  14. Stature Estimation for Bosnian Male Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nermin Sarajlić

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available Since 1996, the Trotter and Gleser formulae to determine the stature of recovered missing persons in Bosnia and Herzegovina have been used. The purpose of this study is to develop appropriate stature estimation formulae from the length of the femur, tibia and fibula for use in the Bosnia and Herzegovina to help in identifications of the victims. Research was undertaken on 50 male cadavers, of individuals who died between the ages of 23 to 54 years. The cadaver length was measured and the length of the long bones was obtained from X-ray photographs. The length of the cadavers of the individuals who died after age of 45 years was corrected according to Giles' table. This study established that using Trotter and Gleser's formulae underestimate stature of tall people in the current population of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Smallest standard error of estimate is observed in the formula that uses the sum of the length of femur and fibula. There are no statistically significant differences between the length of the bones from the left and right sides of the body. Therefore, formulae developed from the average length of bone pairs are recommended for use.

  15. Population: Census Bureau Total Estimates (2010-2012)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — Total population estimates are estimates of the total number of residents living in an area on July 1 of each year. The Census Bureau’s Population Division produces...

  16. On population size estimators in the Poisson mixture model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, Chang Xuan; Yang, Nan; Zhong, Jinhua

    2013-09-01

    Estimating population sizes via capture-recapture experiments has enormous applications. The Poisson mixture model can be adopted for those applications with a single list in which individuals appear one or more times. We compare several nonparametric estimators, including the Chao estimator, the Zelterman estimator, two jackknife estimators and the bootstrap estimator. The target parameter of the Chao estimator is a lower bound of the population size. Those of the other four estimators are not lower bounds, and they may produce lower confidence limits for the population size with poor coverage probabilities. A simulation study is reported and two examples are investigated. © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

  17. The Improved Estimation of Ratio of Two Population Proportions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solanki, Ramkrishna S.; Singh, Housila P.

    2016-01-01

    In this article, first we obtained the correct mean square error expression of Gupta and Shabbir's linear weighted estimator of the ratio of two population proportions. Later we suggested the general class of ratio estimators of two population proportions. The usual ratio estimator, Wynn-type estimator, Singh, Singh, and Kaur difference-type…

  18. Comparison of distance sampling estimates to a known population ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Line-transect sampling was used to obtain abundance estimates of an Ant-eating Chat Myrmecocichla formicivora population to compare these with the true size of the population. The population size was determined by a long-term banding study, and abundance estimates were obtained by surveying line transects.

  19. Estimates of the Legal Permanent Resident Population: 2009

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — This report presents estimates of the legal permanent resident (LPR) population living in the United States on January 1, 2009. The LPR population includes persons...

  20. Estimates of the Legal Permanent Resident Population: 2011

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — This report presents estimates of the legal permanent resident (LPR) population living in the United States on January 1, 2011. The LPR population includes persons...

  1. Estimates of the Legal Permanent Resident Population: 2012

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — This report presents estimates of the legal permanent resident (LPR) population living in the United States on January 1, 2012. The LPR population includes persons...

  2. Estimation of population dose from all sources in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kusama, Tomoko; Nakagawa, Takeo; Kai, Michiaki; Yoshizawa, Yasuo

    1988-01-01

    The purposes of estimation of population doses are to understand the per-caput doses of the public member from each artificial radiation source and to determine the proportion contributed of the doses from each individual source to the total irradiated population. We divided the population doses into two categories: individual-related and source-related population doses. The individual-related population dose is estimated based on the maximum assumption for use in allocation of the dose limits for members of the public. The source-related population dose is estimated both to justify the sources and practices and to optimize radiation protection. The source-related population dose, therefore, should be estimated as realistically as possible. We investigated all sources that caused exposure to the population in Japan from the above points of view

  3. Estimating population age structure using otolith morphometrics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Doering-Arjes, P.; Cardinale, M.; Mosegaard, Henrik

    2008-01-01

    known-age fish individuals. Here we used known-age Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) from the Faroe Bank and Faroe Plateau stocks. Cod populations usually show quite large variation in growth rates and otolith shape. We showed that including otolith morphometrics into ageing processes has the potential...... populations. The intercalibration method was successful but generalization from one stock to another remains problematic. The development of an otolith growth model is needed for generalization if an operational method for different populations is required in the future....... to make ageing objective, accurate, and fast. Calibration analysis indicated that a known-age sample from the same population and environment is needed to obtain robust calibration; using a sample from a different stock more than doubles the error rate, even in the case of genetically highly related...

  4. The use of 65Zn for estimating populations of carnivores

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kruuk, H.; Parrish, T.

    1980-01-01

    Carnivore populations are difficult to measure by conventional methods. We have developed a new method which involves catching one or more individuals from a population and injecting them with the isotope 65 Zn. The radio-isotope appears in the faeces and assuming that the proportion of labelled to unlabelled faeces will equal the proportion of labelled to unlabelled individuals it is possible to estimate the size of the population. We have shown that the method gives an accurate estimate for a population of captive badgers of known size and we have used it in the field to estimate the size of wild badger populations. (author)

  5. Estimating Aquatic Insect Populations. Introduction to Sampling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chihuahuan Desert Research Inst., Alpine, TX.

    This booklet introduces high school and junior high school students to the major groups of aquatic insects and to population sampling techniques. Chapter 1 consists of a short field guide which can be used to identify five separate orders of aquatic insects: odonata (dragonflies and damselflies); ephemeroptera (mayflies); diptera (true flies);…

  6. A modified procedure for estimating the population mean in two ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A modified procedure for estimating the population mean in two-occasion successive samplings. Housila Prasad Singh, Suryal Kant Pal. Abstract. This paper addresses the problem of estimating the current population mean in two occasion successive sampling. Utilizing the readily available information on two auxiliary ...

  7. 78 FR 255 - Resumption of the Population Estimates Challenge Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-03

    ... commenter would like the Census Bureau to continue to leave open the option for a challenging county-level... Challenging Certain Population and Income Estimates'' to ``Procedure for Challenging Population Estimates'' to... governmental unit. In those instances where a non-functioning county-level government or statistical equivalent...

  8. Multi-population Genomic Relationships for Estimating Current Genetic Variances Within and Genetic Correlations Between Populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wientjes, Yvonne C J; Bijma, Piter; Vandenplas, Jérémie; Calus, Mario P L

    2017-10-01

    Different methods are available to calculate multi-population genomic relationship matrices. Since those matrices differ in base population, it is anticipated that the method used to calculate genomic relationships affects the estimate of genetic variances, covariances, and correlations. The aim of this article is to define the multi-population genomic relationship matrix to estimate current genetic variances within and genetic correlations between populations. The genomic relationship matrix containing two populations consists of four blocks, one block for population 1, one block for population 2, and two blocks for relationships between the populations. It is known, based on literature, that by using current allele frequencies to calculate genomic relationships within a population, current genetic variances are estimated. In this article, we theoretically derived the properties of the genomic relationship matrix to estimate genetic correlations between populations and validated it using simulations. When the scaling factor of across-population genomic relationships is equal to the product of the square roots of the scaling factors for within-population genomic relationships, the genetic correlation is estimated unbiasedly even though estimated genetic variances do not necessarily refer to the current population. When this property is not met, the correlation based on estimated variances should be multiplied by a correction factor based on the scaling factors. In this study, we present a genomic relationship matrix which directly estimates current genetic variances as well as genetic correlations between populations. Copyright © 2017 by the Genetics Society of America.

  9. Estimation of thyroid gland state of voles natural populations from increased radioactive background territories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raskosha, O.; Ermakova, O.; Kaneva, A. [Institute of Biology of Komi Scientific Center, Ural Division of Russian Academy of Science (Russian Federation)

    2014-07-01

    Investigation of effects caused in biological objects by chronic low-intensity radiation in their natural habitats is one of the most important problems of modern radioecology. The aim of our work - complex estimation of state of thyroid gland of voles inhabiting increased radioactive background territories. We investigated tundra voles (Microtus oeconomus Pall.) that were sampled at different stages of population cycle from the experimental and the control sites in the Uhta region of the Komi Republic, Russia. Experimental site contamination resulted from commercial extraction od radium between the 1930's and 1950's. Irradiation exposure dose at the site was 50-2000 mR/h (at the control site 10-15 mR/h). Complex estimation of thyroid was made by histological, morpho-metrical, radioimmunological and cytogenetic methods. Results showed high sensitivity of thyroid gland of tundra voles from chronically irradiated natural populations. We found reliable changes in morphological features of thyroid, in the level of thyroidal hormones and increased frequency of cells with micro-nucleuses in animals sampled from the experimental site as compared with the control ones. It was also showed, that chronic exposure of ionizing irradiation at the same range of absorbed doses can cause different effects in animals depending on sex, age and the stage of population cycle. This confirms the need of including these biological factors to analysis of low doses effects in the natural populations during radioecological studies. Investigations were supported by RFBR grants No. 13-04-01750? and No. 13-04-90351-RBUa. Document available in abstract form only. (authors)

  10. Ozone-depleting Substances (ODS)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This site includes all of the ozone-depleting substances (ODS) recognized by the Montreal Protocol. The data include ozone depletion potentials (ODP), global warming...

  11. Restoration of coral populations in light of genetic diversity estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shearer, T. L.; Porto, I.; Zubillaga, A. L.

    2009-09-01

    Due to the importance of preserving the genetic integrity of populations, strategies to restore damaged coral reefs should attempt to retain the allelic diversity of the disturbed population; however, genetic diversity estimates are not available for most coral populations. To provide a generalized estimate of genetic diversity (in terms of allelic richness) of scleractinian coral populations, the literature was surveyed for studies describing the genetic structure of coral populations using microsatellites. The mean number of alleles per locus across 72 surveyed scleractinian coral populations was 8.27 (±0.75 SE). In addition, population genetic datasets from four species ( Acropora palmata, Montastraea cavernosa, Montastraea faveolata and Pocillopora damicornis) were analyzed to assess the minimum number of donor colonies required to retain specific proportions of the genetic diversity of the population. Rarefaction analysis of the population genetic datasets indicated that using 10 donor colonies randomly sampled from the original population would retain >50% of the allelic diversity, while 35 colonies would retain >90% of the original diversity. In general, scleractinian coral populations are genetically diverse and restoration methods utilizing few clonal genotypes to re-populate a reef will diminish the genetic integrity of the population. Coral restoration strategies using 10-35 randomly selected local donor colonies will retain at least 50-90% of the genetic diversity of the original population.

  12. Estimation of effective population size in continuously distributed populations: There goes the neighborhood

    Science.gov (United States)

    M. C. Neel; K. McKelvey; N. Ryman; M. W. Lloyd; R. Short Bull; F. W. Allendorf; M. K. Schwartz; R. S. Waples

    2013-01-01

    Use of genetic methods to estimate effective population size (Ne) is rapidly increasing, but all approaches make simplifying assumptions unlikely to be met in real populations. In particular, all assume a single, unstructured population, and none has been evaluated for use with continuously distributed species. We simulated continuous populations with local mating...

  13. Ever Enrolled Medicare Population Estimates from the MCBS..

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Findings reported in Ever Enrolled Medicare Population Estimates from the MCBS Access to Care (ATC) Files, published in Volume 4, Issue 2 of the Medicare and...

  14. Population Exposure Estimates in Proximity to Nuclear Power Plants, Locations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Population Exposure Estimates in Proximity to Nuclear Power Plants, Locations data set combines information from a global data set developed by Declan Butler of...

  15. Plastic deformation behavior and bonding strength of an EBW joint between 9Cr-ODS and JLF-1 estimated by symmetric four-point bend tests combined with FEM analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fu, Haiying; Nagasaka, Takuya; Muroga, Takeo; Guan, Wenhai; Nogami, Shuhei; Serizawa, Hisashi; Geng, Shaofei; Yabuuchi, Kiyohiro; Kimura, Akihiko

    2016-01-01

    The joint between 9Cr-ODS and JLF-1 made by electron beam welding (EBW) fractured at the JLF-1 base metal (BM) during uniaxial tensile tests. Thus, the bonding strength of the joint was not determined and was estimated as more than the ultimate tensile strength of the BM in this case. Symmetric four-point bend tests which concentrate the stress inside the inner span including the weld metal (WM) were carried out at room temperature (RT) and 550 °C to investigate how the bonding strength is more than the ultimate tensile strength of the BM. The normal stress at the center of the weld bead can be calculated with elastic theory up to only 0.25% in strain, though the joint showed more than 10% in strain due to plastic deformation. Thus, finite element method (FEM) was utilized to simulate the plastic deformation behavior of the joint during bend tests. According to the fitting of the FEM output, such as load and displacement of the upper jig contacting the specimens, to the experimental results, the bonding strength of the joint at RT and 550 °C were estimated as 854 MPa and 505 MPa, respectively.

  16. Plastic deformation behavior and bonding strength of an EBW joint between 9Cr-ODS and JLF-1 estimated by symmetric four-point bend tests combined with FEM analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fu, Haiying [SOKENDAI (The Graduate University for Advanced Studies), 322-6 Oroshi-cho, Toki 509-5292 (Japan); Nagasaka, Takuya; Muroga, Takeo [SOKENDAI (The Graduate University for Advanced Studies), 322-6 Oroshi-cho, Toki 509-5292 (Japan); National Institute for Fusion Science, 322-6 Oroshi-cho, Toki 509-5292 (Japan); Guan, Wenhai; Nogami, Shuhei [Tohoku University, 6-6-01-2 Aramaki-aza-Aoba, Aoba-ku, Sendai 980-8578 (Japan); Serizawa, Hisashi [Joining and Welding Research Institute, Osaka University, 11-1 Mihogaoka, Ibaraki 567-0047 (Japan); Geng, Shaofei [SOKENDAI (The Graduate University for Advanced Studies), 322-6 Oroshi-cho, Toki 509-5292 (Japan); Yabuuchi, Kiyohiro; Kimura, Akihiko [Institute of Advanced Energy, Kyoto University, Uji 611-0011 (Japan)

    2016-01-15

    The joint between 9Cr-ODS and JLF-1 made by electron beam welding (EBW) fractured at the JLF-1 base metal (BM) during uniaxial tensile tests. Thus, the bonding strength of the joint was not determined and was estimated as more than the ultimate tensile strength of the BM in this case. Symmetric four-point bend tests which concentrate the stress inside the inner span including the weld metal (WM) were carried out at room temperature (RT) and 550 °C to investigate how the bonding strength is more than the ultimate tensile strength of the BM. The normal stress at the center of the weld bead can be calculated with elastic theory up to only 0.25% in strain, though the joint showed more than 10% in strain due to plastic deformation. Thus, finite element method (FEM) was utilized to simulate the plastic deformation behavior of the joint during bend tests. According to the fitting of the FEM output, such as load and displacement of the upper jig contacting the specimens, to the experimental results, the bonding strength of the joint at RT and 550 °C were estimated as 854 MPa and 505 MPa, respectively.

  17. Microstructural stability of 11Cr ODS steel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yamashiro, Tetsuya, E-mail: fgsjkr@eng.hokudai.ac.jp [Materials Science and Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, Hokkaido University, N13, W-8, Kita-ku, Sapporo 060-8628 (Japan); Ukai, Shigeharu; Oono, Naoko [Materials Science and Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Hokkaido University, N13, W-8, Kita-ku, Sapporo 060-8628 (Japan); Ohtsuka, Satoshi; Kaito, Takeji [Advanced Nuclear System R& D Directorate, Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA), 4002, Narita, Oarai, Ibaraki-pref. 311-1393 (Japan)

    2016-04-15

    Aiming at further improvement of high-temperature oxidation and corrosion resistance, 11CrODS steel with martensitic base structure has been previously developed, as a candidate fuel cladding material for 4th generation advanced nuclear reactors. In this study, the microstructure of 11CrODS steel was characterized by means of EBSD and nanoindentation hardness measurement. The continuous cooling transformation (CCT) diagram was constructed. Upper critical cooling rate, which is minimum cooling rate necessary to form martensitic structure, was derived to be 60 °C/min (3600 °C/h). In contrast, lower critical cooling rate preventing from martensite formation, was derived to be 10 °C/min (600 °C/h). An area fraction of so called residual ferrite was estimated by image processing of EBSD-IQ map to be 21% of the total area. This fraction of the residual ferrite in 11CrODS steel was evaluated by considering the driving force for α to γ reverse transformation.

  18. SECPOP90: Sector population, land fraction, and economic estimation program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Humphreys, S.L.; Rollstin, J.A.; Ridgely, J.N.

    1997-09-01

    In 1973 Mr. W. Athey of the Environmental Protection Agency wrote a computer program called SECPOP which calculated population estimates. Since that time, two things have changed which suggested the need for updating the original program - more recent population censuses and the widespread use of personal computers (PCs). The revised computer program uses the 1990 and 1992 Population Census information and runs on current PCs as {open_quotes}SECPOP90.{close_quotes} SECPOP90 consists of two parts: site and regional. The site provides population and economic data estimates for any location within the continental United States. Siting analysis is relatively fast running. The regional portion assesses site availability for different siting policy decisions; i.e., the impact of available sites given specific population density criteria within the continental United States. Regional analysis is slow. This report compares the SECPOP90 population estimates and the nuclear power reactor licensee-provided information. Although the source, and therefore the accuracy, of the licensee information is unknown, this comparison suggests SECPOP90 makes reasonable estimates. Given the total uncertainty in any current calculation of severe accidents, including the potential offsite consequences, the uncertainty within SECPOP90 population estimates is expected to be insignificant. 12 refs., 55 figs., 7 tabs.

  19. SECPOP90: Sector population, land fraction, and economic estimation program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Humphreys, S.L.; Rollstin, J.A.; Ridgely, J.N.

    1997-09-01

    In 1973 Mr. W. Athey of the Environmental Protection Agency wrote a computer program called SECPOP which calculated population estimates. Since that time, two things have changed which suggested the need for updating the original program - more recent population censuses and the widespread use of personal computers (PCs). The revised computer program uses the 1990 and 1992 Population Census information and runs on current PCs as open-quotes SECPOP90.close quotes SECPOP90 consists of two parts: site and regional. The site provides population and economic data estimates for any location within the continental United States. Siting analysis is relatively fast running. The regional portion assesses site availability for different siting policy decisions; i.e., the impact of available sites given specific population density criteria within the continental United States. Regional analysis is slow. This report compares the SECPOP90 population estimates and the nuclear power reactor licensee-provided information. Although the source, and therefore the accuracy, of the licensee information is unknown, this comparison suggests SECPOP90 makes reasonable estimates. Given the total uncertainty in any current calculation of severe accidents, including the potential offsite consequences, the uncertainty within SECPOP90 population estimates is expected to be insignificant. 12 refs., 55 figs., 7 tabs

  20. Estimation of the lion ( Panthera leo ) population in the southwestern ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A previous estimate of the lion (Panthera leo) population in the southwestern Kgalagadi Transfrontier Park (KTP) was made over 20 years ago. This together with increased fears regarding the viability of the population as a result of recent killings of roaming animals, an observed increase in non-violent mortalities during ...

  1. Od psihoterapije do utopije

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josip Ćirić

    2015-06-01

    -metodu, Milgram (Obedience to Authority 30-31 skupio je procjene stručnjaka i nestručnjaka o očekivanu ponašanju ispitanika i one su pokazale zapanjujuću razliku naspram empirijskih ishoda – procijenjeno je da će 0,1% ispitanika elektrošokove zadavati do kraja, dok su ispitivanja pokazala da taj postotak raste do 65% (33. Logički biheviorizam u filozofiji znanosti, problem odnosa um-tijelo (za detaljnu sistematizaciju logičkog prostora ovog problema vidi Ludwig 10-11 ili pitanja vezana uz umjetnu inteligenciju u filozofiji uma samo su neke od ilustracija utjecaja filozofskih teorija na psihologiju. Fokus je našeg istraživanja na politikama koje proizlaze iz psihoterapijske teorije i prelaženju granica koje postavlja znanstveni diskurs.

  2. ODS Alloys for Nuclear Applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jang, Jin Sung

    2006-01-01

    ODS (oxide dispersion strengthening) alloy is one of the potential candidate alloys for the cladding or in reactor components of Generation IV reactors and for the structural material even for fusion reactors. It is widely accepted as very resistant material to neutron irradiation as well as strong material at high temperature due to its finely distributed and stable oxide particles. Among Generation IV reactors SFR and SCWR are anticipated in general to run in the temperature range between 300 and 550 .deg. C, and the peak cladding temperature is supposed to reach at about 620 .deg. C during the normal operation. Therefore Zr.base alloys, which have been widely known and adopted for the cladding material due to their excellent neutron economics, are no more adequate at these operating conditions. Fe-base ODS alloys in general has a good high temperature strength at the above high temperature as well as the neutron resistance. In this study a range of commercial grade ODS alloys and their applications are reviewed, including an investigation of the stability of a commercial grade 20% Cr Fe-base ODS alloy(MA956). The alloy was evaluated in terms of the fracture toughness change along with the aging treatment. Also an attempt of the development of 9% Cr Fe-base ODS alloys is introduced

  3. Estimating Traveler Populations at Airport and Cruise Terminals for Population Distribution and Dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jochem, Warren C [ORNL; Sims, Kelly M [ORNL; Bright, Eddie A [ORNL; Urban, Marie L [ORNL; Rose, Amy N [ORNL; Coleman, Phil R [ORNL; Bhaduri, Budhendra L [ORNL

    2013-01-01

    In recent years, uses of high-resolution population distribution databases are increasing steadily for environmental, socioeconomic, public health, and disaster-related research and operations. With the development of daytime population distribution, temporal resolution of such databases has been improved. However, the lack of incorporation of transitional population, namely business and leisure travelers, leaves a significant population unaccounted for within the critical infrastructure networks, such as at transportation hubs. This paper presents two general methodologies for estimating passenger populations in airport and cruise port terminals at a high temporal resolution which can be incorporated into existing population distribution models. The methodologies are geographically scalable and are based on, and demonstrate how, two different transportation hubs with disparate temporal population dynamics can be modeled utilizing publicly available databases including novel data sources of flight activity from the Internet which are updated in near-real time. The airport population estimation model shows great potential for rapid implementation for a large collection of airports on a national scale, and the results suggest reasonable accuracy in the estimated passenger traffic. By incorporating population dynamics at high temporal resolutions into population distribution models, we hope to improve the estimates of populations exposed to or at risk to disasters, thereby improving emergency planning and response, and leading to more informed policy decisions.

  4. Population estimates of extended family structure and size.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garceau, Anne; Wideroff, Louise; McNeel, Timothy; Dunn, Marsha; Graubard, Barry I

    2008-01-01

    Population-based estimates of biological family size can be useful for planning genetic studies, assessing how distributions of relatives affect disease associations with family history and estimating prevalence of potential family support. Mean family size per person is estimated from a population-based telephone survey (n = 1,019). After multivariate adjustment for demographic variables, older and non-White respondents reported greater mean numbers of total, first- and second-degree relatives. Females reported more total and first-degree relatives, while less educated respondents reported more second-degree relatives. Demographic differences in family size have implications for genetic research. Therefore, periodic collection of family structure data in representative populations would be useful. Copyright 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  5. Estimation of the effective population size (Ne) and its application in the management of small populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jimenez Mena, Belen

    2016-01-01

    Effective population size (Ne) is an important concept to understand the evolution of a population. In conservation, Ne is used to assess the threat status of a population, evaluate its genetic viability in the future and set conservation priorities. An accurate estimation of Ne is thus essential....... The main objective of this thesis was to better understand how the estimation of Ne using molecular markers can be improved for use in conservation genetics. As a first step, we undertook a simulation study where three different methods to estimate Ne were investigated. We explored how well these three...... methods performed under different scenarios. This study showed that all three methods performed better when the number of unlinked loci used to make the estimation increased and the minimum number of loci need for an accurate estimation of Ne was 100 SNPs. A general assumption in the estimation of Ne...

  6. Dutch population specific sex estimation formulae using the proximal femur.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colman, K L; Janssen, M C L; Stull, K E; van Rijn, R R; Oostra, R J; de Boer, H H; van der Merwe, A E

    2018-05-01

    Sex estimation techniques are frequently applied in forensic anthropological analyses of unidentified human skeletal remains. While morphological sex estimation methods are able to endure population differences, the classification accuracy of metric sex estimation methods are population-specific. No metric sex estimation method currently exists for the Dutch population. The purpose of this study is to create Dutch population specific sex estimation formulae by means of osteometric analyses of the proximal femur. Since the Netherlands lacks a representative contemporary skeletal reference population, 2D plane reconstructions, derived from clinical computed tomography (CT) data, were used as an alternative source for a representative reference sample. The first part of this study assesses the intra- and inter-observer error, or reliability, of twelve measurements of the proximal femur. The technical error of measurement (TEM) and relative TEM (%TEM) were calculated using 26 dry adult femora. In addition, the agreement, or accuracy, between the dry bone and CT-based measurements was determined by percent agreement. Only reliable and accurate measurements were retained for the logistic regression sex estimation formulae; a training set (n=86) was used to create the models while an independent testing set (n=28) was used to validate the models. Due to high levels of multicollinearity, only single variable models were created. Cross-validated classification accuracies ranged from 86% to 92%. The high cross-validated classification accuracies indicate that the developed formulae can contribute to the biological profile and specifically in sex estimation of unidentified human skeletal remains in the Netherlands. Furthermore, the results indicate that clinical CT data can be a valuable alternative source of data when representative skeletal collections are unavailable. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Population Estimation with Mark and Recapture Method Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Limohpasmanee, W.; Kaewchoung, W.

    1998-01-01

    Population estimation is the important information which required for the insect control planning especially the controlling with SIT. Moreover, It can be used to evaluate the efficiency of controlling method. Due to the complexity of calculation, the population estimation with mark and recapture methods were not used widely. So that, this program is developed with Qbasic on the purpose to make it accuracy and easier. The program evaluation consists with 6 methods; follow Seber's, Jolly-seber's, Jackson's Ito's, Hamada's and Yamamura's methods. The results are compared with the original methods, found that they are accuracy and more easier to applied

  8. Estimating spatio-temporal dynamics of size-structured populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Kasper; Thygesen, Uffe Høgsbro; Andersen, Ken Haste

    2014-01-01

    with simple stock dynamics, to estimate simultaneously how size distributions and spatial distributions develop in time. We demonstrate the method for a cod population sampled by trawl surveys. Particular attention is paid to correlation between size classes within each trawl haul due to clustering...... of individuals with similar size. The model estimates growth, mortality and reproduction, after which any aspect of size-structure, spatio-temporal population dynamics, as well as the sampling process can be probed. This is illustrated by two applications: 1) tracking the spatial movements of a single cohort...

  9. Methods of estimating population exposures from Plowshare applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaye, S V; Rohwer, P S [Health Physics Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    1969-07-01

    When estimating doses to populations it is necessary to divide the total population into groups that have parameters of similar type and magnitude in order to identify critical population groups. Age groups constitute the most basic and generally useful way of dividing the total population for estimating dose. Models for estimating dose, particularly the internal dose from inhalation and ingestion of radioactivity, should be written as a function of age. The importance of considering age-dependency is emphasized by the fact that some of the internal dose parameters change by much as a factor of ten for some radionuclides when comparing a one year old with an adult. A computer code called INREM has been written which can consider all internal dose parameters as a function of age. The major imitation in using this computer code for all radionuclides is the paucity of age-dependent input data for many radionuclides. Tritium, iodine, cesium, and strontium have been studied in detail with INREM and the results and interpretations are discussed. Another code, EXREM, computes the external dose rates and cumulative doses from both beta particles and gamma photons from submersion in a radioactive cloud, submersion in contaminated water and exposure above a contaminated land surface. This code can consider up to 25 Plowshare detonations and a variety of combinations for calculating doses and dose rates in relation to a detonation schedule. The importance of using both INREM and EXREM to estimate the total dose to a population group is stressed. (author)

  10. Methods of estimating population exposures from Plowshare applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaye, S.V.; Rohwer, P.S.

    1969-01-01

    When estimating doses to populations it is necessary to divide the total population into groups that have parameters of similar type and magnitude in order to identify critical population groups. Age groups constitute the most basic and generally useful way of dividing the total population for estimating dose. Models for estimating dose, particularly the internal dose from inhalation and ingestion of radioactivity, should be written as a function of age. The importance of considering age-dependency is emphasized by the fact that some of the internal dose parameters change by much as a factor of ten for some radionuclides when comparing a one year old with an adult. A computer code called INREM has been written which can consider all internal dose parameters as a function of age. The major imitation in using this computer code for all radionuclides is the paucity of age-dependent input data for many radionuclides. Tritium, iodine, cesium, and strontium have been studied in detail with INREM and the results and interpretations are discussed. Another code, EXREM, computes the external dose rates and cumulative doses from both beta particles and gamma photons from submersion in a radioactive cloud, submersion in contaminated water and exposure above a contaminated land surface. This code can consider up to 25 Plowshare detonations and a variety of combinations for calculating doses and dose rates in relation to a detonation schedule. The importance of using both INREM and EXREM to estimate the total dose to a population group is stressed. (author)

  11. Estimating and mapping the population at risk of sleeping sickness.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pere P Simarro

    Full Text Available Human African trypanosomiasis (HAT, also known as sleeping sickness, persists as a public health problem in several sub-Saharan countries. Evidence-based, spatially explicit estimates of population at risk are needed to inform planning and implementation of field interventions, monitor disease trends, raise awareness and support advocacy. Comprehensive, geo-referenced epidemiological records from HAT-affected countries were combined with human population layers to map five categories of risk, ranging from "very high" to "very low," and to estimate the corresponding at-risk population.Approximately 70 million people distributed over a surface of 1.55 million km(2 are estimated to be at different levels of risk of contracting HAT. Trypanosoma brucei gambiense accounts for 82.2% of the population at risk, the remaining 17.8% being at risk of infection from T. b. rhodesiense. Twenty-one million people live in areas classified as moderate to very high risk, where more than 1 HAT case per 10,000 inhabitants per annum is reported.Updated estimates of the population at risk of sleeping sickness were made, based on quantitative information on the reported cases and the geographic distribution of human population. Due to substantial methodological differences, it is not possible to make direct comparisons with previous figures for at-risk population. By contrast, it will be possible to explore trends in the future. The presented maps of different HAT risk levels will help to develop site-specific strategies for control and surveillance, and to monitor progress achieved by ongoing efforts aimed at the elimination of sleeping sickness.

  12. Estimating Effects of Species Interactions on Populations of Endangered Species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roth, Tobias; Bühler, Christoph; Amrhein, Valentin

    2016-04-01

    Global change causes community composition to change considerably through time, with ever-new combinations of interacting species. To study the consequences of newly established species interactions, one available source of data could be observational surveys from biodiversity monitoring. However, approaches using observational data would need to account for niche differences between species and for imperfect detection of individuals. To estimate population sizes of interacting species, we extended N-mixture models that were developed to estimate true population sizes in single species. Simulations revealed that our model is able to disentangle direct effects of dominant on subordinate species from indirect effects of dominant species on detection probability of subordinate species. For illustration, we applied our model to data from a Swiss amphibian monitoring program and showed that sizes of expanding water frog populations were negatively related to population sizes of endangered yellow-bellied toads and common midwife toads and partly of natterjack toads. Unlike other studies that analyzed presence and absence of species, our model suggests that the spread of water frogs in Central Europe is one of the reasons for the decline of endangered toad species. Thus, studying population impacts of dominant species on population sizes of endangered species using data from biodiversity monitoring programs should help to inform conservation policy and to decide whether competing species should be subject to population management.

  13. Estimating a population cumulative incidence under calendar time trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Stefan N; Overgaard, Morten; Andersen, Per K

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The risk of a disease or psychiatric disorder is frequently measured by the age-specific cumulative incidence. Cumulative incidence estimates are often derived in cohort studies with individuals recruited over calendar time and with the end of follow-up governed by a specific date...... by calendar time trends, the total sample Kaplan-Meier and Aalen-Johansen estimators do not provide useful estimates of the general risk in the target population. We present some alternatives to this type of analysis. RESULTS: We show how a proportional hazards model may be used to extrapolate disease risk...... estimates if proportionality is a reasonable assumption. If not reasonable, we instead advocate that a more useful description of the disease risk lies in the age-specific cumulative incidence curves across strata given by time of entry or perhaps just the end of follow-up estimates across all strata...

  14. Parameter Estimates in Differential Equation Models for Population Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkel, Brian J.

    2011-01-01

    We estimate the parameters present in several differential equation models of population growth, specifically logistic growth models and two-species competition models. We discuss student-evolved strategies and offer "Mathematica" code for a gradient search approach. We use historical (1930s) data from microbial studies of the Russian biologist,…

  15. Estimating population size of Saddle-billed Storks Ephippiorhynchus ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The aim of this study was to estimate the population size within associated confidence limits using a modified mark–recapture field method. The vehicle survey, conducted shortly after rainfall in the area, did not produce results with known precision under these conditions. A repeat of this census in spring, after the peak ...

  16. Negative binomial models for abundance estimation of multiple closed populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyce, Mark S.; MacKenzie, Darry I.; Manly, Bryan F.J.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Moody, David W.

    2001-01-01

    Counts of uniquely identified individuals in a population offer opportunities to estimate abundance. However, for various reasons such counts may be burdened by heterogeneity in the probability of being detected. Theoretical arguments and empirical evidence demonstrate that the negative binomial distribution (NBD) is a useful characterization for counts from biological populations with heterogeneity. We propose a method that focuses on estimating multiple populations by simultaneously using a suite of models derived from the NBD. We used this approach to estimate the number of female grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) with cubs-of-the-year in the Yellowstone ecosystem, for each year, 1986-1998. Akaike's Information Criteria (AIC) indicated that a negative binomial model with a constant level of heterogeneity across all years was best for characterizing the sighting frequencies of female grizzly bears. A lack-of-fit test indicated the model adequately described the collected data. Bootstrap techniques were used to estimate standard errors and 95% confidence intervals. We provide a Monte Carlo technique, which confirms that the Yellowstone ecosystem grizzly bear population increased during the period 1986-1998.

  17. Estimating the size of the homeless population in Budapest, Hungary

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    David, B; Snijders, TAB

    In this study we try to estimate the size of the homeless population in Budapest by using two - non-standard - sampling methods: snowball sampling and capture-recapture method. Using two methods and three different data sets we are able to compare the methods as well as the results, and we also

  18. Sampling strategies for estimating brook trout effective population size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew R. Whiteley; Jason A. Coombs; Mark Hudy; Zachary Robinson; Keith H. Nislow; Benjamin H. Letcher

    2012-01-01

    The influence of sampling strategy on estimates of effective population size (Ne) from single-sample genetic methods has not been rigorously examined, though these methods are increasingly used. For headwater salmonids, spatially close kin association among age-0 individuals suggests that sampling strategy (number of individuals and location from...

  19. An alternative covariance estimator to investigate genetic heterogeneity in populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heslot, Nicolas; Jannink, Jean-Luc

    2015-11-26

    For genomic prediction and genome-wide association studies (GWAS) using mixed models, covariance between individuals is estimated using molecular markers. Based on the properties of mixed models, using available molecular data for prediction is optimal if this covariance is known. Under this assumption, adding individuals to the analysis should never be detrimental. However, some empirical studies showed that increasing training population size decreased prediction accuracy. Recently, results from theoretical models indicated that even if marker density is high and the genetic architecture of traits is controlled by many loci with small additive effects, the covariance between individuals, which depends on relationships at causal loci, is not always well estimated by the whole-genome kinship. We propose an alternative covariance estimator named K-kernel, to account for potential genetic heterogeneity between populations that is characterized by a lack of genetic correlation, and to limit the information flow between a priori unknown populations in a trait-specific manner. This is similar to a multi-trait model and parameters are estimated by REML and, in extreme cases, it can allow for an independent genetic architecture between populations. As such, K-kernel is useful to study the problem of the design of training populations. K-kernel was compared to other covariance estimators or kernels to examine its fit to the data, cross-validated accuracy and suitability for GWAS on several datasets. It provides a significantly better fit to the data than the genomic best linear unbiased prediction model and, in some cases it performs better than other kernels such as the Gaussian kernel, as shown by an empirical null distribution. In GWAS simulations, alternative kernels control type I errors as well as or better than the classical whole-genome kinship and increase statistical power. No or small gains were observed in cross-validated prediction accuracy. This alternative

  20. Estimating population effects of vaccination using large, routinely collected data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halloran, M Elizabeth; Hudgens, Michael G

    2018-01-30

    Vaccination in populations can have several kinds of effects. Establishing that vaccination produces population-level effects beyond the direct effects in the vaccinated individuals can have important consequences for public health policy. Formal methods have been developed for study designs and analysis that can estimate the different effects of vaccination. However, implementing field studies to evaluate the different effects of vaccination can be expensive, of limited generalizability, or unethical. It would be advantageous to use routinely collected data to estimate the different effects of vaccination. We consider how different types of data are needed to estimate different effects of vaccination. The examples include rotavirus vaccination of young children, influenza vaccination of elderly adults, and a targeted influenza vaccination campaign in schools. Directions for future research are discussed. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  1. The study to estimate the floating population in Seoul, Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Geon Woo; Lee, Yong Jin; Kim, Youngeun; Hong, Seung-Han; Kim, Soohwaun; Kim, Jeong Soo; Lee, Jong Tae; Shin, Dong Chun; Lim, Youngwook

    2017-01-01

    Traffic-related pollutants have been reported to increase the morbidity of respiratory diseases. In order to apply management policies related to motor vehicles, studies of the floating population living in cities are important. The rate of metro rail transit system use by passengers residing in Seoul is about 54% of total public transportation use. Through the rate of metro use, the people-flow ratios in each administrative area were calculated. By applying a people-flow ratio based on the official census count, the floating population in 25 regions was calculated. The reduced level of deaths among the floating population in 14 regions having the roadside monitoring station was calculated as assuming a 20% reduction of mobile emission based on the policy. The hourly floating population size was calculated by applying the hourly population ratio to the regional population size as specified in the official census count. The number of people moving from 5 a.m. to next day 1 a.m. could not be precisely calculated when the population size was applied, but no issue was observed that would trigger a sizable shift in the rate of population change. The three patterns of increase, decrease, and no change of population in work hours were analyzed. When the concentration of particulate matter less than 10 μm in aerodynamic diameter was reduced by 20%, the number of excess deaths varied according to the difference of the floating population. The effective establishment of directions to manage the pollutants in cities should be carried out by considering the floating population. Although the number of people using the metro system is only an estimate, this disadvantage was supplemented by calculating inflow and outflow ratio of metro users per time in the total floating population in each region. Especially, 54% of metro usage in public transport causes high reliability in application.

  2. The study to estimate the floating population in Seoul, Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Geon Woo Lee

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Traffic-related pollutants have been reported to increase the morbidity of respiratory diseases. In order to apply management policies related to motor vehicles, studies of the floating population living in cities are important. The rate of metro rail transit system use by passengers residing in Seoul is about 54% of total public transportation use. Through the rate of metro use, the people-flow ratios in each administrative area were calculated. By applying a people-flow ratio based on the official census count, the floating population in 25 regions was calculated. The reduced level of deaths among the floating population in 14 regions having the roadside monitoring station was calculated as assuming a 20% reduction of mobile emission based on the policy. The hourly floating population size was calculated by applying the hourly population ratio to the regional population size as specified in the official census count. The number of people moving from 5 a.m. to next day 1 a.m. could not be precisely calculated when the population size was applied, but no issue was observed that would trigger a sizable shift in the rate of population change. The three patterns of increase, decrease, and no change of population in work hours were analyzed. When the concentration of particulate matter less than 10 μm in aerodynamic diameter was reduced by 20%, the number of excess deaths varied according to the difference of the floating population. The effective establishment of directions to manage the pollutants in cities should be carried out by considering the floating population. Although the number of people using the metro system is only an estimate, this disadvantage was supplemented by calculating inflow and outflow ratio of metro users per time in the total floating population in each region. Especially, 54% of metro usage in public transport causes high reliability in application.

  3. Evaluation of cost reduction method for manufacturing ODS ferritic claddings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fujiwara, Masayuki; Mizuta, Shunji; Ukai, Shigeharu

    2000-04-01

    For evaluating the fast reactor system technology, it is important to evaluate the practical feasibility of ODS ferritic claddings, which is the most promising materials to attain the goal of high coolant temperature and more than 150 GWd/t. Based on the results of their technology development, mass production process with highly economically benefit as well as manufacturing cost estimation of ODS ferritic claddings were preliminarily conducted. From the view point of future utility scale, the cost for manufacturing mother tubes has a dominant factor in the total manufacturing cost. The method to reduce the cost of mother tube manufacturing was also preliminarily investigated. (author)

  4. High temperature oxidation behavior of ODS steels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaito, T.; Narita, T.; Ukai, S.; Matsuda, Y.

    2004-08-01

    Oxide dispersion strengthened (ODS) steels are being developing for application as advanced fast reactor cladding and fusion blanket materials, in order to allow increased operation temperature. Oxidation testing of ODS steel was conducted under a controlled dry air atmosphere to evaluate the high temperature oxidation behavior. This showed that 9Cr-ODS martensitic steels and 12Cr-ODS ferritic steels have superior high temperature oxidation resistance compared to 11 mass% Cr PNC-FMS and 17 mass% Cr ferritic stainless steel. This high temperature resistance is attributed to earlier formation of the protective α-Cr 2O 3 on the outer surface of ODS steels.

  5. A NEW MODIFIED RATIO ESTIMATOR FOR ESTIMATION OF POPULATION MEAN WHEN MEDIAN OF THE AUXILIARY VARIABLE IS KNOWN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jambulingam Subramani

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The present paper deals with a modified ratio estimator for estimation of population mean of the study variable when the population median of the auxiliary variable is known. The bias and mean squared error of the proposed estimator are derived and are compared with that of existing modified ratio estimators for certain known populations. Further we have also derived the conditions for which the proposed estimator performs better than the existing modified ratio estimators. From the numerical study it is also observed that the proposed modified ratio estimator performs better than the existing modified ratio estimators for certain known populations.

  6. Can genetic estimators provide robust estimates of the effective number of breeders in small populations?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marion Hoehn

    Full Text Available The effective population size (N(e is proportional to the loss of genetic diversity and the rate of inbreeding, and its accurate estimation is crucial for the monitoring of small populations. Here, we integrate temporal studies of the gecko Oedura reticulata, to compare genetic and demographic estimators of N(e. Because geckos have overlapping generations, our goal was to demographically estimate N(bI, the inbreeding effective number of breeders and to calculate the N(bI/N(a ratio (N(a =number of adults for four populations. Demographically estimated N(bI ranged from 1 to 65 individuals. The mean reduction in the effective number of breeders relative to census size (N(bI/N(a was 0.1 to 1.1. We identified the variance in reproductive success as the most important variable contributing to reduction of this ratio. We used four methods to estimate the genetic based inbreeding effective number of breeders N(bI(gen and the variance effective populations size N(eV(gen estimates from the genotype data. Two of these methods - a temporal moment-based (MBT and a likelihood-based approach (TM3 require at least two samples in time, while the other two were single-sample estimators - the linkage disequilibrium method with bias correction LDNe and the program ONeSAMP. The genetic based estimates were fairly similar across methods and also similar to the demographic estimates excluding those estimates, in which upper confidence interval boundaries were uninformative. For example, LDNe and ONeSAMP estimates ranged from 14-55 and 24-48 individuals, respectively. However, temporal methods suffered from a large variation in confidence intervals and concerns about the prior information. We conclude that the single-sample estimators are an acceptable short-cut to estimate N(bI for species such as geckos and will be of great importance for the monitoring of species in fragmented landscapes.

  7. Hygienic estimation of population doses due to stratospheric fallout

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marej, A.N.; Knizhnikov, V.A.

    1980-01-01

    The hygienic estimation of external and internal irradiation of the USSR population due to stratospheric global fallouts of fission products after nuclear explosions and weapon tests, is carried out. Numerical values which characterize the dose-effect dependence in the case of radiation of marrow, bone tissue and whole body are presented. Values of mean individual and population doses of irradiation due to global fallouts within 1963-1975, types of injury and the number of mortal cases due to malignant neoplasms are presented. A conclusion is made that the contribution of radiation due to stratospheric fallouts in the mortality due to malignant neoplasms is insignificant. Annual radiation doses, conditioned by global fallouts within the period of 1963-1975 constitute but several percent from the dose of radiation of the natural radiation background. Results of estimation of genetic consequences of irradiation due to atmospheric fallouts are presented

  8. The effects of spatial population dataset choice on estimates of population at risk of disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gething Peter W

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The spatial modeling of infectious disease distributions and dynamics is increasingly being undertaken for health services planning and disease control monitoring, implementation, and evaluation. Where risks are heterogeneous in space or dependent on person-to-person transmission, spatial data on human population distributions are required to estimate infectious disease risks, burdens, and dynamics. Several different modeled human population distribution datasets are available and widely used, but the disparities among them and the implications for enumerating disease burdens and populations at risk have not been considered systematically. Here, we quantify some of these effects using global estimates of populations at risk (PAR of P. falciparum malaria as an example. Methods The recent construction of a global map of P. falciparum malaria endemicity enabled the testing of different gridded population datasets for providing estimates of PAR by endemicity class. The estimated population numbers within each class were calculated for each country using four different global gridded human population datasets: GRUMP (~1 km spatial resolution, LandScan (~1 km, UNEP Global Population Databases (~5 km, and GPW3 (~5 km. More detailed assessments of PAR variation and accuracy were conducted for three African countries where census data were available at a higher administrative-unit level than used by any of the four gridded population datasets. Results The estimates of PAR based on the datasets varied by more than 10 million people for some countries, even accounting for the fact that estimates of population totals made by different agencies are used to correct national totals in these datasets and can vary by more than 5% for many low-income countries. In many cases, these variations in PAR estimates comprised more than 10% of the total national population. The detailed country-level assessments suggested that none of the datasets was

  9. Estimate of consumption of phenolic compounds by Brazilian population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vanesa Gesser Corrêa

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Estimate the intake of phenolic compounds by the Brazilian population. METHODS: To estimate the average per capita food consumption, micro data from the National Dietary Survey and from the Household Budget Survey from 2008 to 2009 was analyzed. The phenolic content in food was estimated from the base of Phenol-Explorer. It was chosen according to compatibility and variety of food items and usual method of preparation. RESULTS: The Brazilian population consumed, on average, 460.15 mg/day of total phenolic compounds, derived mainly from beverages (48.9%, especially coffee and legumes (19.5%. Since this analysis of classes of phenolics it was possible to observe an intake of 314 mg/day of phenolic acids, 138.92 mg/day of flavonoids and 7.16 mg/ day of other kinds of phenolics. Regarding the variables studied this present study shows that those men who live in the countryside and in the northeastern region of the country had a higher consumption of phenolic compounds. Besides, consumption was higher by adults and the elderly, the medium income classes, the population with incomplete and complete primary education and those with adequate nutrition and also overweight status. CONCLUSION: The intake of phenolic compounds can be considered low, especially where consumption of fruit and vegetables is insufficient. We can conclude that coffee and black beans were the best contributors to phenolic intake.

  10. Approximate maximum likelihood estimation for population genetic inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertl, Johanna; Ewing, Gregory; Kosiol, Carolin; Futschik, Andreas

    2017-11-27

    In many population genetic problems, parameter estimation is obstructed by an intractable likelihood function. Therefore, approximate estimation methods have been developed, and with growing computational power, sampling-based methods became popular. However, these methods such as Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) can be inefficient in high-dimensional problems. This led to the development of more sophisticated iterative estimation methods like particle filters. Here, we propose an alternative approach that is based on stochastic approximation. By moving along a simulated gradient or ascent direction, the algorithm produces a sequence of estimates that eventually converges to the maximum likelihood estimate, given a set of observed summary statistics. This strategy does not sample much from low-likelihood regions of the parameter space, and is fast, even when many summary statistics are involved. We put considerable efforts into providing tuning guidelines that improve the robustness and lead to good performance on problems with high-dimensional summary statistics and a low signal-to-noise ratio. We then investigate the performance of our resulting approach and study its properties in simulations. Finally, we re-estimate parameters describing the demographic history of Bornean and Sumatran orang-utans.

  11. Estimating trends in alligator populations from nightlight survey data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujisaki, Ikuko; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Dorazio, Robert M.; Rice, Kenneth G.; Cherkiss, Michael; Jeffery, Brian

    2011-01-01

    Nightlight surveys are commonly used to evaluate status and trends of crocodilian populations, but imperfect detection caused by survey- and location-specific factors makes it difficult to draw population inferences accurately from uncorrected data. We used a two-stage hierarchical model comprising population abundance and detection probability to examine recent abundance trends of American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) in subareas of Everglades wetlands in Florida using nightlight survey data. During 2001–2008, there were declining trends in abundance of small and/or medium sized animals in a majority of subareas, whereas abundance of large sized animals had either demonstrated an increased or unclear trend. For small and large sized class animals, estimated detection probability declined as water depth increased. Detection probability of small animals was much lower than for larger size classes. The declining trend of smaller alligators may reflect a natural population response to the fluctuating environment of Everglades wetlands under modified hydrology. It may have negative implications for the future of alligator populations in this region, particularly if habitat conditions do not favor recruitment of offspring in the near term. Our study provides a foundation to improve inferences made from nightlight surveys of other crocodilian populations.

  12. Ambit determination method in estimating rice plant population density

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abu Bakar, B.,

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Rice plant population density is a key indicator in determining the crop setting and fertilizer application rate. It is therefore essential that the population density is monitored to ensure that a correct crop management decision is taken. The conventional method of determining plant population is by manually counting the total number of rice plant tillers in a 25 cm x 25 cm square frame. Sampling is done by randomly choosing several different locations within a plot to perform tiller counting. This sampling method is time consuming, labour intensive and costly. An alternative fast estimating method was developed to overcome this issue. The method relies on measuring the outer circumference or ambit of the contained rice plants in a 25 cm x 25 cm square frame to determine the number of tillers within that square frame. Data samples of rice variety MR219 were collected from rice plots in the Muda granary area, Sungai Limau Dalam, Kedah. The data were taken at 50 days and 70 days after seeding (DAS. A total of 100 data samples were collected for each sampling day. A good correlation was obtained for the variety of 50 DAS and 70 DAS. The model was then verified by taking 100 samples with the latching strap for 50 DAS and 70 DAS. As a result, this technique can be used as a fast, economical and practical alternative to manual tiller counting. The technique can potentially be used in the development of an electronic sensing system to estimate paddy plant population density.

  13. Nutrient load estimates for Manila Bay, Philippines using population data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sotto, Lara Patricia A.; Beusen, Arthur H. W.; Villanoy, Cesar L.; Bouwman, Lex F.; Jacinto, Gil S.

    2015-06-01

    A major source of nutrient load to periodically hypoxic Manila Bay is the urban nutrient waste water flow from humans and industries to surface water. In Manila alone, the population density is as high as 19,137 people/km2. A model based on a global point source model by Morée et al. (2013) was used to estimate the contribution of the population to nitrogen and phosphorus emissions which was then used in a water transport model to estimate the nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) loads to Manila Bay. Seven scenarios for 2050 were tested, with varying degrees and amounts for extent of sewage treatment, and population growth rates were also included. In scenario 1, the sewage connection and treatment remains the same as 2010; in scenario 2, sewage connection is improved but the treatment is the same; in scenario 3, the sewage connection as well as treatment is improved (70% tertiary); and in scenario 4, a more realistic situation of 70% primary treatment achieved with 100% connection to pipes is tested. Scenarios 5, 6, and 7 have the same parameters as 1, 2, and 3 respectively, but with the population growth rate per province reduced to half of what was used in 1, 2, and 3. In all scenarios, a significant increase in N and P loads was observed (varying from 27% to 469% relative to 2010 values). This was found even in scenario 3 where 70% of the waste water undergoes tertiary treatment which removes 80% N and 90% P. However, the lowest increase in N and P load into the bay was achieved in scenarios 5 to 7 where population growth rate is reduced to half of 2010 values. The results suggest that aside from improving sewage treatment, the continued increase of the human population in Manila at current growth rates will be an important determinant of N and P load into Manila Bay.

  14. Estimating population salt intake in India using spot urine samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersen, Kristina S; Johnson, Claire; Mohan, Sailesh; Rogers, Kris; Shivashankar, Roopa; Thout, Sudhir Raj; Gupta, Priti; He, Feng J; MacGregor, Graham A; Webster, Jacqui; Santos, Joseph Alvin; Krishnan, Anand; Maulik, Pallab K; Reddy, K Srinath; Gupta, Ruby; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj; Neal, Bruce

    2017-11-01

    To compare estimates of mean population salt intake in North and South India derived from spot urine samples versus 24-h urine collections. In a cross-sectional survey, participants were sampled from slum, urban and rural communities in North and in South India. Participants provided 24-h urine collections, and random morning spot urine samples. Salt intake was estimated from the spot urine samples using a series of established estimating equations. Salt intake data from the 24-h urine collections and spot urine equations were weighted to provide estimates of salt intake for Delhi and Haryana, and Andhra Pradesh. A total of 957 individuals provided a complete 24-h urine collection and a spot urine sample. Weighted mean salt intake based on the 24-h urine collection, was 8.59 (95% confidence interval 7.73-9.45) and 9.46 g/day (8.95-9.96) in Delhi and Haryana, and Andhra Pradesh, respectively. Corresponding estimates based on the Tanaka equation [9.04 (8.63-9.45) and 9.79 g/day (9.62-9.96) for Delhi and Haryana, and Andhra Pradesh, respectively], the Mage equation [8.80 (7.67-9.94) and 10.19 g/day (95% CI 9.59-10.79)], the INTERSALT equation [7.99 (7.61-8.37) and 8.64 g/day (8.04-9.23)] and the INTERSALT equation with potassium [8.13 (7.74-8.52) and 8.81 g/day (8.16-9.46)] were all within 1 g/day of the estimate based upon 24-h collections. For the Toft equation, estimates were 1-2 g/day higher [9.94 (9.24-10.64) and 10.69 g/day (9.44-11.93)] and for the Kawasaki equation they were 3-4 g/day higher [12.14 (11.30-12.97) and 13.64 g/day (13.15-14.12)]. In urban and rural areas in North and South India, most spot urine-based equations provided reasonable estimates of mean population salt intake. Equations that did not provide good estimates may have failed because specimen collection was not aligned with the original method.

  15. Learning to Estimate Dynamical State with Probabilistic Population Codes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph G Makin

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Tracking moving objects, including one's own body, is a fundamental ability of higher organisms, playing a central role in many perceptual and motor tasks. While it is unknown how the brain learns to follow and predict the dynamics of objects, it is known that this process of state estimation can be learned purely from the statistics of noisy observations. When the dynamics are simply linear with additive Gaussian noise, the optimal solution is the well known Kalman filter (KF, the parameters of which can be learned via latent-variable density estimation (the EM algorithm. The brain does not, however, directly manipulate matrices and vectors, but instead appears to represent probability distributions with the firing rates of population of neurons, "probabilistic population codes." We show that a recurrent neural network-a modified form of an exponential family harmonium (EFH-that takes a linear probabilistic population code as input can learn, without supervision, to estimate the state of a linear dynamical system. After observing a series of population responses (spike counts to the position of a moving object, the network learns to represent the velocity of the object and forms nearly optimal predictions about the position at the next time-step. This result builds on our previous work showing that a similar network can learn to perform multisensory integration and coordinate transformations for static stimuli. The receptive fields of the trained network also make qualitative predictions about the developing and learning brain: tuning gradually emerges for higher-order dynamical states not explicitly present in the inputs, appearing as delayed tuning for the lower-order states.

  16. Population-based absolute risk estimation with survey data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovalchik, Stephanie A.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.

    2013-01-01

    Absolute risk is the probability that a cause-specific event occurs in a given time interval in the presence of competing events. We present methods to estimate population-based absolute risk from a complex survey cohort that can accommodate multiple exposure-specific competing risks. The hazard function for each event type consists of an individualized relative risk multiplied by a baseline hazard function, which is modeled nonparametrically or parametrically with a piecewise exponential model. An influence method is used to derive a Taylor-linearized variance estimate for the absolute risk estimates. We introduce novel measures of the cause-specific influences that can guide modeling choices for the competing event components of the model. To illustrate our methodology, we build and validate cause-specific absolute risk models for cardiovascular and cancer deaths using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Our applications demonstrate the usefulness of survey-based risk prediction models for predicting health outcomes and quantifying the potential impact of disease prevention programs at the population level. PMID:23686614

  17. Estimating radiation risk induced by CT screening for Korean population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Won Seok; Yang, Hye Jeong; Min, Byung In

    2017-02-01

    The purposes of this study are to estimate the radiation risks induced by chest/abdomen computed tomography (CT) screening for healthcare and to determine the cancer risk level of the Korean population compared to other populations. We used an ImPACT CT Patient Dosimetry Calculator to compute the organ effective dose induced by CT screening (chest, low-dose chest, abdomen/pelvis, and chest/abdomen/pelvis CT). A risk model was applied using principles based on the BEIR VII Report in order to estimate the lifetime attributable risk (LAR) using the Korean Life Table 2010. In addition, several countries including Hong Kong, the United States (U.S.), and the United Kingdom, were selected for comparison. Herein, each population exposed radiation dose of 100 mSv was classified according to country, gender and age. For each CT screening the total organ effective dose calculated by ImPACT was 6.2, 1.5, 5.2 and 11.4 mSv, respectively. In the case of Korean female LAR, it was similar to Hong Kong female but lower than those of U.S. and U.K. females, except for those in their twenties. The LAR of Korean males was the highest for all types of CT screening. However, the difference of the risk level was negligible because of the quite low value.

  18. The Knossos Od Series. An Epigraphical Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nosch, Marie-Louise Bech

    This study is an epigraphical investigation of the Linear B records from the West Wing in the palace of Knossos. Its focus is the group of 61 unclassified Od tablets with the ideogram for wool. The author presents a new classification of the Od tablets by identifying new sets, and by integrating...... unclassified Od tablets into existing Od sets or into other series recording wool, such as the two well known and thoroughly researched "bureaux", the textile and the sheep administration. Recent work by FIRTH on find-places has provided new insights for this study. In the present study, 29 prefix changes...... are suggested. Only few unclassified Od tablets, however, can be associated with the initial parts of textile production in which scribes 103 and 113 set targets and manage the production. Rather, many unclassified Od tablets belong to the final stages of the textile production, that is, the finishing...

  19. ZASEBNOST OD RABE DO ZLORABE

    OpenAIRE

    Flegerič, Tamara

    2012-01-01

    Nastanek interneta in njegova popularizacija s pojavom svetovnega spleta je povzročil veliko revolucijo. Najpopularnejše orodje spleta 2.0 in s tem najpomembnejši medij spletne komunikacije so postala spletna socialna omrežja. Spletno socialno omrežje, ki je postalo pravi fenomen in kateremu smo se posvetili v pričujoči diplomski nalogi, je Facebook. V diplomskem delu z naslovom »Zasebnost od rabe do zlorabe« sta predstavljeni zasebnost in varnost na Facebooku. V teoretičnem delu se bomo posv...

  20. The oxidation and corrosion of ODS alloys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowell, Carl E.; Barrett, Charles A.

    1990-01-01

    The oxidation and hot corrosion of high temperature oxide dispersion strengthened (ODS) alloys are reviewed. The environmental resistance of such alloys are classified by oxide growth rate, oxide volatility, oxide spalling, and hot corrosion limitations. Also discussed are environmentally resistant coatings for ODS materials. It is concluded that ODS NiCrAl and FeCrAl alloys are highly oxidation and corrosion resistant and can probably be used uncoated.

  1. Oxidation And Hot Corrosion Of ODS Alloy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowell, Carl E.; Barrett, Charles A.

    1993-01-01

    Report reviews oxidation and hot corrosion of oxide-dispersion-strengthened (ODS) alloys, intended for use at high temperatures. Classifies environmental resistances of such alloys by rates of growth of oxides, volatilities of oxides, spalling of oxides, and limitations imposed by hot corrosion. Also discusses environmentally resistant coatings for ODS materials. Concludes ODS NICrAl and FeCrAl alloys highly resistant to oxidation and corrosion and can be used uncoated.

  2. Density estimation in tiger populations: combining information for strong inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopalaswamy, Arjun M.; Royle, J. Andrew; Delampady, Mohan; Nichols, James D.; Karanth, K. Ullas; Macdonald, David W.

    2012-01-01

    A productive way forward in studies of animal populations is to efficiently make use of all the information available, either as raw data or as published sources, on critical parameters of interest. In this study, we demonstrate two approaches to the use of multiple sources of information on a parameter of fundamental interest to ecologists: animal density. The first approach produces estimates simultaneously from two different sources of data. The second approach was developed for situations in which initial data collection and analysis are followed up by subsequent data collection and prior knowledge is updated with new data using a stepwise process. Both approaches are used to estimate density of a rare and elusive predator, the tiger, by combining photographic and fecal DNA spatial capture–recapture data. The model, which combined information, provided the most precise estimate of density (8.5 ± 1.95 tigers/100 km2 [posterior mean ± SD]) relative to a model that utilized only one data source (photographic, 12.02 ± 3.02 tigers/100 km2 and fecal DNA, 6.65 ± 2.37 tigers/100 km2). Our study demonstrates that, by accounting for multiple sources of available information, estimates of animal density can be significantly improved.

  3. Pressure dependence of hydrogen bonding in metal deuteroxides: a neutron powder diffraction study of Mn(OD)2 and β-Co(OD)2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parise, J.B.; Theroux, B.; Li, R.; Loveday, J.S.; Marshall, W.G.; Klotz, S.

    1998-01-01

    The structures of deuterated pyrochroite, Mn(OD) 2 and β-Co(OD) 2 have been refined using the Rietveld method and neutron powder diffraction data collected in an opposed-anvil high pressure (Paris-Edinburgh) cell from room pressure to 9 GPa. The equation of state for Mn(OD) 2 was determined (K=41(3) GPa for fixed K'=4.7) and found to be consistent with previous studies of the isostructural brucite, Mg(OD) 2 . The compressibility of β-Co(OD) 2 on the other hand is apparently anomalous. The c-axis initially decreases at 3 times the rate of decrease of the a-axis; the ratio decreases to about 1.5 at an estimated 6 GPa before increasing again beyond this pressure. There is no obvious corresponding anomaly in the details of the atomic structure. In both materials there is an increase in the D-site disorder with pressure. A split-site model for the D-positions best fits the data at pressures above 8 GPa. There is no statistically significant increase in the O-D interatomic distance at increased pressure while the hydrogen bonding interaction D..O appears to increase as this distance decreases and the O-D..O angle increases. The intramolecular O-D bond valences, determined indirectly from the intermolecular D..O distances, decrease steadily for both materials as pressure is increased. (orig.)

  4. A major locus on mouse chromosome 18 controls XX sex reversal in Odd Sex (Ods) mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, Yangjun; Poirier, Christophe; Truong, Cavatina; Schumacher, Armin; Agoulnik, Alexander I; Bishop, Colin E

    2003-03-01

    We have previously reported a dominant mouse mutant, Odd sex (Ods), in which XX Ods/+ mice on the FVB/N background show complete sex reversal, associated with expression of Sox9 in the fetal gonads. Remarkably, when crossed to the A/J strain approximately 95% of the (AXFVB) F(1) XX Ods/+ mice developed as fully fertile, phenotypic females, the remainder developing as males or hermaphrodites. Using a (AXFVB) F(2) population, we conducted a genome-wide linkage scan to identify the number and chromosomal location of potential Ods modifier genes. A single major locus termed Odsm1 was mapped to chromosome 18, tightly linked to D18Mit189 and D18Mit210. Segregation at this locus could account for the presence of sex reversal in 100% of XX Ods/+ mice which develop as males, for the absence of sex reversal in approximately 92% of XX Ods/+ mice which develop as females, and for the mixed sexual phenotype in approximately 72% of XX Ods/+ mice that develop with ambiguous genitalia. We propose that homozygosity for the FVB-derived allele strongly favors Ods sex reversal, whereas homozygosity for the A/J-derived allele inhibits it. In mice heterozygous at Odsm1, the phenotypic outcome, male, female or hermaphrodite, is determined by a complex interaction of several minor modifying loci. The close proximity of Smad2, Smad7 and Smad4 to D18Mit189/210 provides a potential mechanism through which Odsm1 might act.

  5. Estimating glomerular filtration rate in a population-based study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anoop Shankar

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Anoop Shankar1, Kristine E Lee2, Barbara EK Klein2, Paul Muntner3, Peter C Brazy4, Karen J Cruickshanks2,5, F Javier Nieto5, Lorraine G Danforth2, Carla R Schubert2,5, Michael Y Tsai6, Ronald Klein21Department of Community Medicine, West Virginia University School of Medicine, Morgantown, WV, USA; 2Department of Ophthalmology and Visual Sciences, 4Department of Medicine, 5Department of Population Health Sciences, University of Wisconsin, School of Medicine and Public Health, Madison, WI, USA; 3Department of Community Medicine, Mount Sinai School of Medicine, NY, USA; 6Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USABackground: Glomerular filtration rate (GFR-estimating equations are used to determine the prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD in population-based studies. However, it has been suggested that since the commonly used GFR equations were originally developed from samples of patients with CKD, they underestimate GFR in healthy populations. Few studies have made side-by-side comparisons of the effect of various estimating equations on the prevalence estimates of CKD in a general population sample.Patients and methods: We examined a population-based sample comprising adults from Wisconsin (age, 43–86 years; 56% women. We compared the prevalence of CKD, defined as a GFR of <60 mL/min per 1.73 m2 estimated from serum creatinine, by applying various commonly used equations including the modification of diet in renal disease (MDRD equation, Cockcroft–Gault (CG equation, and the Mayo equation. We compared the performance of these equations against the CKD definition of cystatin C >1.23 mg/L.Results: We found that the prevalence of CKD varied widely among different GFR equations. Although the prevalence of CKD was 17.2% with the MDRD equation and 16.5% with the CG equation, it was only 4.8% with the Mayo equation. Only 24% of those identified to have GFR in the range of 50–59 mL/min per 1

  6. Estimated impact of global population growth on future wilderness extent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumont, E.

    2012-06-01

    Wilderness areas in the world are threatened by the environmental impacts of the growing global human population. This study estimates the impact of birth rate on the future surface area of biodiverse wilderness and on the proportion of this area without major extinctions. The following four drivers are considered: human population growth (1), agricultural efficiency (2), groundwater drawdown by irrigation (3), and non-agricultural space used by humans (buildings, gardens, roads, etc.) (4). This study indicates that the surface area of biodiverse unmanaged land will reduce with about 5.4% between 2012 and 2050. Further, it indicates that the biodiverse land without major extinctions will reduce with about 10.5%. These percentages are based on a commonly used population trajectory which assumes that birth rates across the globe will reduce in a similar way as has occurred in the past in many developed countries. Future birth rate is however very uncertain. Plausible future birth rates lower than the expected rates lead to much smaller reductions in surface area of biodiverse unmanaged land (0.7% as opposed to 5.4%), and a reduction in the biodiverse land without major extinctions of about 5.6% (as opposed to 10.5%). This indicates that birth rate is an important factor influencing the quality and quantity of wilderness remaining in the future.

  7. Daily intake estimation of phenolic compounds in the Spanish population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inma Navarro González

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Phenolic compounds are a large group of molecules present in plants with a diversity of chemical structures and biological activity. The objective of this study was to quantify the intake of phenolic compounds of the Spanish population. Material and Methods: The most consumed foods from vegetal origin in Spain were selected. These were picked up in the National Survey of Spanish Dietary Intake (ENIDE of 2011, edited by AESAN (Spanish Agency for Food Safety and Nutrition as a basis for quantifying the intake of phenolic compounds of Spaniards using the Phenol-Explorer database. Results: This database has allowed to estimate the average intake of polyphenols per day of Spaniards, which is 1365.1mg. Conclusions: The average intake of total polyphenols of Spaniards could have a protective effect against the mortality rate and exercise a preventive function on some chronic diseases along with other healthy lifestyle habits.

  8. Spatially disaggregated population estimates in the absence of national population and housing census data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wardrop, N. A.; Jochem, W. C.; Bird, T. J.; Chamberlain, H. R.; Clarke, D.; Kerr, D.; Bengtsson, L.; Juran, S.; Seaman, V.; Tatem, A. J.

    2018-01-01

    Population numbers at local levels are fundamental data for many applications, including the delivery and planning of services, election preparation, and response to disasters. In resource-poor settings, recent and reliable demographic data at subnational scales can often be lacking. National population and housing census data can be outdated, inaccurate, or missing key groups or areas, while registry data are generally lacking or incomplete. Moreover, at local scales accurate boundary data are often limited, and high rates of migration and urban growth make existing data quickly outdated. Here we review past and ongoing work aimed at producing spatially disaggregated local-scale population estimates, and discuss how new technologies are now enabling robust and cost-effective solutions. Recent advances in the availability of detailed satellite imagery, geopositioning tools for field surveys, statistical methods, and computational power are enabling the development and application of approaches that can estimate population distributions at fine spatial scales across entire countries in the absence of census data. We outline the potential of such approaches as well as their limitations, emphasizing the political and operational hurdles for acceptance and sustainable implementation of new approaches, and the continued importance of traditional sources of national statistical data. PMID:29555739

  9. Estimating population health risk from low-level environmental radon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisher, D.R.

    1980-01-01

    Although incidence of respiratory cancer is directly related to inhalation of radon and radon daughters, the magnitude of the actual risk is uncertain for members of the general population exposed for long periods to low-level concentrations. Currently, any such estimate of the risk must rely on data obtained through previous studies of underground-miner populations. Several methods of risk analysis have resulted from these studies. Since the breathing atmospheres, smoking patterns, and physiology are different between miners and the general public, overestimates of lung cancer risk to the latter may have resulted. Strong evidence exists to support the theory of synergistic action between alpha radiation and other agents, and therefore a modified relative risk model was developed to predict lung cancer risks to the general public. The model considers latent period, observation period, age dependency, and inherent risks from smoking or geographical location. A test of the model showed excellent agreement with results of the study of Czechoslovakian uranium miners, for which the necessary time factors were available. The risk model was also used to predict lung cancer incidence among residents of homes on reclaimed Florida phosphate lands, and results of this analysis indicate that over the space of many years, the increased incidence of lung cancer due to elevated radon levels may be indisgtinguishable from those due to other causes

  10. Estimation of population doses from stomach mass screening, 1975

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hashizume, T; Kato, Y; Maruyama, T [National Inst. of Radiological Sciences, Chiba (Japan); Kamata, R; Urahashi, S

    1977-06-01

    The population dose from mass photofluorography of stomach have been estimated on the basis of nation wide radiological survey. The number of photofluorographic examinations was 2.38 million for male and 1.74 million for female, with a total of 4.12 million. The gonad doses were determined with an ionization chamber, using a tissue equivalent phantom. The gonad dose for male was 10.4 mrad per examination and for female was 150 mrad per examination. The active bone marrow doses at 32 points of bone marrow in the whole body were measured with thermoluminescent dosimeter. The mean marrow dose per photofluorographic examination was 450 mrad for male and 390 mrad for female. The child expectancy factor and the leukemia significant factor were calculated based on the Vital Statistics 1975. The genetically significant dose (GSD) and per caput mean marrow dose (CMD) were calculated by the formulae presented from the United Nations Scientific Comittee of Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR). The resultant GSD was 0.15 mrad per person per year. The CMD was 16.5 mrad per person per year. The leukemia significant dose (LSD) was determined by adopting a weight factor, that is leukemia significant factor. The resultant LSD was 14.5 mrad per person per year. These population doses were compared with those from diagnostic medical x-ray examinations in 1974.

  11. Estimates of genetic variability in mutated population of triticum aestivum

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larik, A.S.; Siddiqui, K.A.; Soomoro, A.H.

    1980-01-01

    M 2 populations of four cultivars of Mexican origin (Mexipak-65, Nayab, Pak-70 and 6134 x C-271) and two locally bred cultivars (H-68 and C-591) of bread wheat, triticum aestivum (2n = 6x = AA BB DD) derived from six irradiation treatments (gamma rays 60sub(Co); 10, 15 and 20 kR and fast neutrons; 300, 600 and 900 RADS) were critically examined for spike length, spikelets per spike, grains per spike and grain yield. Genotypes varied significantly (p>=0.01) for all the characters. Irradiation treatment were instrumental in creating significant variability for all the characters, indicating that varieties did not perform uniformly across different gamma rays as well as fast neutron treatments. In the M 2 generation there was a considerable increase in variance for all the four metrical traits. Comparisons were made between controls and treated populations. Mutagenic treatments shifted the mean values mostly towards the negative direction, but the shift was not unidirectional nor equally effective for all the characters. The differences in mean values and the nature of variability observed in M 2 indicated a possible preference of selection M 3 generation. In general, estimates of genetic variability and heritability (b.s) increased with increasing doses of gamma rays and fast neutrons. Genetic advance also exhibited similar trend. The observed variability can be utilized in the evolution of new varieties. (authors)

  12. Estimation of exposure to furan in the Spanish population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mesías, Marta; Guerra-Hernández, Eduardo; García-Villanova, Belén

    2012-02-01

    The presence of furan in foods has received recent attention because of its association with harmful effects to human health. This compound, which is originated as a consequence of thermal treatment, is mainly found in canned, jarred, toasted and fried foods. The aim of this study was to estimate the exposure to furan in the Spanish population and to study the evolution of furan content in the main categories of foods in recent years, taking into account changes in dietary patterns. With respect to exposure to furan in the Spanish population from 2001 to 2009, no large differences were found. The maximum furan exposure recorded in this study (1.95 μg/kg bw/day) is lower than the 'no observable adverse effect level' of 0.08 mg/kg bw/day determined in the studies of experimental animals, and is close to the reported acceptable daily intake of 2 μg/kg bw/day.

  13. Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ) Urban-Rural Population and Land Area Estimates, Version 2

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ) Urban-Rural Population and Land Area Estimates, Version 2 data set consists of country-level estimates of urban population,...

  14. Evaluation of mechanical properties and nano-meso structures of 9–11%Cr ODS steels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tanno, Takashi, E-mail: tanno.takashi@jaea.go.jp [Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Oarai, Ibaraki 311-1393 (Japan); Ohtsuka, Satoshi; Yano, Yasuhide; Kaito, Takeji [Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Oarai, Ibaraki 311-1393 (Japan); Oba, Yojiro; Ohnuma, Masato [National Institute for Materials Science, Tsukuba 305-1195 (Japan); Koyama, Shinichi; Tanaka, Kenya [Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Oarai, Ibaraki 311-1393 (Japan)

    2013-09-15

    Highlights: • We successfully manufactured 11Cr-ODS steels with residual α-ferrite controlled. • Dispersion conditions of nano oxide particles were quantitatively characterized. • Tungsten solid solution could improve only tensile strength of ODS steels at 973 K. • Oxide dispersion strengthening was dominant in creep strength of ODS steels at 973 K. -- Abstract: This study carried out mechanical tests and microstructural characterizations of several 9Cr and 11Cr-ODS tempered martensitic steels. From those results, the appropriate chemical composition range of 11Cr-ODS tempered martensitic steel was discussed from the viewpoint of high temperature strength improvement. It was shown that the residual α-ferrite fraction in 11Cr-ODS steel was successfully controlled to the same level as the 9Cr-ODS steel, which has excellent high temperature strength, by selecting the chemical compositions on the basis of the multi-component phase diagram. The tensile strength decreased with decreasing W content from 2.0 to 1.4 wt%. On the other hand, creep strength at 973 K did not degrade by the decreasing W content. Both tensile strength and creep strength increased with increasing population of the nano-sized oxide particles. Small angle X-ray scattering analysis revealed that titanium and excess oxygen contents were key parameters in order to improve the dispersion conditions of nano-sized oxide particles.

  15. Effects of social organization, trap arrangement and density, sampling scale, and population density on bias in population size estimation using some common mark-recapture estimators.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manan Gupta

    Full Text Available Mark-recapture estimators are commonly used for population size estimation, and typically yield unbiased estimates for most solitary species with low to moderate home range sizes. However, these methods assume independence of captures among individuals, an assumption that is clearly violated in social species that show fission-fusion dynamics, such as the Asian elephant. In the specific case of Asian elephants, doubts have been raised about the accuracy of population size estimates. More importantly, the potential problem for the use of mark-recapture methods posed by social organization in general has not been systematically addressed. We developed an individual-based simulation framework to systematically examine the potential effects of type of social organization, as well as other factors such as trap density and arrangement, spatial scale of sampling, and population density, on bias in population sizes estimated by POPAN, Robust Design, and Robust Design with detection heterogeneity. In the present study, we ran simulations with biological, demographic and ecological parameters relevant to Asian elephant populations, but the simulation framework is easily extended to address questions relevant to other social species. We collected capture history data from the simulations, and used those data to test for bias in population size estimation. Social organization significantly affected bias in most analyses, but the effect sizes were variable, depending on other factors. Social organization tended to introduce large bias when trap arrangement was uniform and sampling effort was low. POPAN clearly outperformed the two Robust Design models we tested, yielding close to zero bias if traps were arranged at random in the study area, and when population density and trap density were not too low. Social organization did not have a major effect on bias for these parameter combinations at which POPAN gave more or less unbiased population size estimates

  16. Estimation of population doses from chest mass screening, 1975

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hashizume, Tadashi; Maruyama, Takashi

    1977-01-01

    The population doses in mass photofluorography of the chest were estimated on the basis of nation-wide radiological survey. A total frequency of photofluorographic examinations for the chest mass survey was 18.3 million for males and 15.0 million for females, with a total of 33.3 million. Mass surveys of the chest during the school age are carried out only at the time of admission into the primary school (5 or 6 years old) and at the second class of the junior high school (13 or 14 years old). The gonad doses were determined with an ionization chamber placed at the position of gonad in tissue-equivalent phantoms. The active bone marrow was subdivided into 72 elements. The dose contribution to the marrow arising from the particular exposure conditions was calculated at each site within the elements, using the depth-dose curves experimentally determined and the proportion of the total active bone marrow present at that site. The resultant genetically significant dose for males and females was 0.07 and 0.025 mrad per person per year, respectively, with a total of 0.032 mrad per person per year. The per Caput mean marrow dose for male and female was 5.5 and 4.2 mrad per year, respectively, with a total of 9.7 mrad per year. The leukemia significant dose was calculated from the per Caput mean marrow dose by adopting weighting factor, that is leukemia significant factor. The resultant leukemia significant factor for male and female was 5.2 and 4.1 mrad per person per year, respectively. (auth.)

  17. Reliability of different mark-recapture methods for population size estimation tested against reference population sizes constructed from field data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annegret Grimm

    Full Text Available Reliable estimates of population size are fundamental in many ecological studies and biodiversity conservation. Selecting appropriate methods to estimate abundance is often very difficult, especially if data are scarce. Most studies concerning the reliability of different estimators used simulation data based on assumptions about capture variability that do not necessarily reflect conditions in natural populations. Here, we used data from an intensively studied closed population of the arboreal gecko Gehyra variegata to construct reference population sizes for assessing twelve different population size estimators in terms of bias, precision, accuracy, and their 95%-confidence intervals. Two of the reference populations reflect natural biological entities, whereas the other reference populations reflect artificial subsets of the population. Since individual heterogeneity was assumed, we tested modifications of the Lincoln-Petersen estimator, a set of models in programs MARK and CARE-2, and a truncated geometric distribution. Ranking of methods was similar across criteria. Models accounting for individual heterogeneity performed best in all assessment criteria. For populations from heterogeneous habitats without obvious covariates explaining individual heterogeneity, we recommend using the moment estimator or the interpolated jackknife estimator (both implemented in CAPTURE/MARK. If data for capture frequencies are substantial, we recommend the sample coverage or the estimating equation (both models implemented in CARE-2. Depending on the distribution of catchabilities, our proposed multiple Lincoln-Petersen and a truncated geometric distribution obtained comparably good results. The former usually resulted in a minimum population size and the latter can be recommended when there is a long tail of low capture probabilities. Models with covariates and mixture models performed poorly. Our approach identified suitable methods and extended options to

  18. RATIO ESTIMATORS FOR THE CO-EFFICIENT OF VARIATION IN A FINITE POPULATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Archana V

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available The Co-efficient of variation (C.V is a relative measure of dispersion and is free from unit of measurement. Hence it is widely used by the scientists in the disciplines of agriculture, biology, economics and environmental science. Although a lot of work has been reported in the past for the estimation of population C.V in infinite population models, they are not directly applicable for the finite populations. In this paper we have proposed six new estimators of the population C.V in finite population using ratio and product type estimators. The bias and mean square error of these estimators are derived for the simple random sampling design. The performance of the estimators is compared using a real life dataset. The ratio estimator using the information on the population C.V of the auxiliary variable emerges as the best estimator

  19. APPLYING THIESSEN POLYGON CATCHMENT AREAS AND GRIDDED POPULATION WEIGHTS TO ESTIMATE CONFLICT-DRIVEN POPULATION CHANGES IN SOUTH SUDAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Jordan

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Recent violence in South Sudan produced significant levels of conflict-driven migration undermining the accuracy and utility of both national and local level population forecasts commonly used in demographic estimates, public health metrics and food security proxies. This article explores the use of Thiessen Polygons and population grids (Gridded Population of the World, WorldPop and LandScan as weights for estimating the catchment areas for settlement locations that serve large populations of internally displaced persons (IDP, in order to estimate the county-level in- and out-migration attributable to conflict-driven displacement between 2014-2015. Acknowledging IDP totals improves internal population estimates presented by global population databases. Unlike other forecasts, which produce spatially uniform increases in population, accounting for displaced population reveals that 15 percent of counties (n = 12 increased in population over 20 percent, and 30 percent of counties (n = 24 experienced zero or declining population growth, due to internal displacement and refugee out-migration. Adopting Thiessen Polygon catchment zones for internal migration estimation can be applied to other areas with United Nations IDP settlement data, such as Yemen, Somalia, and Nigeria.

  20. Applying Thiessen Polygon Catchment Areas and Gridded Population Weights to Estimate Conflict-Driven Population Changes in South Sudan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordan, L.

    2017-10-01

    Recent violence in South Sudan produced significant levels of conflict-driven migration undermining the accuracy and utility of both national and local level population forecasts commonly used in demographic estimates, public health metrics and food security proxies. This article explores the use of Thiessen Polygons and population grids (Gridded Population of the World, WorldPop and LandScan) as weights for estimating the catchment areas for settlement locations that serve large populations of internally displaced persons (IDP), in order to estimate the county-level in- and out-migration attributable to conflict-driven displacement between 2014-2015. Acknowledging IDP totals improves internal population estimates presented by global population databases. Unlike other forecasts, which produce spatially uniform increases in population, accounting for displaced population reveals that 15 percent of counties (n = 12) increased in population over 20 percent, and 30 percent of counties (n = 24) experienced zero or declining population growth, due to internal displacement and refugee out-migration. Adopting Thiessen Polygon catchment zones for internal migration estimation can be applied to other areas with United Nations IDP settlement data, such as Yemen, Somalia, and Nigeria.

  1. Cerium Titanate Nano dispersoids in Ni-base ODS Alloy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Suk Hoon; Chun, Young-Bum; Rhee, Chang-Kyu; Jang, Jinsung [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Chung, Hee-Suk [Korea Basic Science Institute, Jeonju (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    Oxide-dispersion-strengthened (ODS) nickel-base alloys have potential for use in rather demanding elevated-temperature environments, such as aircraft turbine engines, heat exchanger of nuclear reactor. For improved high temperature performance, several ODS alloys were developed which possess good elevated temperature strength and over-temperature capacity plus excellent static oxidation resistance. The high temperature strength of ODS alloys is due to the presence of a uniform dispersion of fine, inert particles. Ceria mixed oxides have been studied because of their application potential in the formation of nanoclusters. By first principle study, it was estimated that the formation energy of the Ce-O dimer with voids in the nickel base alloy is lower than other candidates. The result suggests that the dispersion of the Ceria mixed oxides can suppress the voiding or swelling behavior of nickel base alloy during neutron irradiation. In this study, the evolution of cerium titanate nano particles was investigated using in-situ TEM. It was found that the Ce{sub 2}Ti{sub 3}O{sub 9} phase was easily formed rather than remain as CeO{sub 2} during annealing; Ti was effective to form the finer oxide particles. Ce{sub 2}Ti{sub 3}O{sub 9} is expected to do the great roll as dispersoids in Ni-base alloy, contribute to achieve the better high temperature property, high swelling resistance during neutron radiation.

  2. Model-based estimation of finite population total in stratified sampling

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The work presented in this paper concerns the estimation of finite population total under model – based framework. Nonparametric regression approach as a method of estimating finite population total is explored. The asymptotic properties of the estimators based on nonparametric regression are also developed under ...

  3. When are genetic methods useful for estimating contemporary abundance and detecting population trends?

    Science.gov (United States)

    David A. Tallmon; Dave Gregovich; Robin S. Waples; C. Scott Baker; Jennifer Jackson; Barbara L. Taylor; Eric Archer; Karen K. Martien; Fred W. Allendorf; Michael K. Schwartz

    2010-01-01

    The utility of microsatellite markers for inferring population size and trend has not been rigorously examined, even though these markers are commonly used to monitor the demography of natural populations. We assessed the ability of a linkage disequilibrium estimator of effective population size (Ne) and a simple capture-recapture estimator of abundance (N) to quantify...

  4. Estimating population sizes for elusive animals: the forest elephants of Kakum National Park, Ghana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eggert, L S; Eggert, J A; Woodruff, D S

    2003-06-01

    African forest elephants are difficult to observe in the dense vegetation, and previous studies have relied upon indirect methods to estimate population sizes. Using multilocus genotyping of noninvasively collected samples, we performed a genetic survey of the forest elephant population at Kakum National Park, Ghana. We estimated population size, sex ratio and genetic variability from our data, then combined this information with field observations to divide the population into age groups. Our population size estimate was very close to that obtained using dung counts, the most commonly used indirect method of estimating the population sizes of forest elephant populations. As their habitat is fragmented by expanding human populations, management will be increasingly important to the persistence of forest elephant populations. The data that can be obtained from noninvasively collected samples will help managers plan for the conservation of this keystone species.

  5. "Capture" Me if You Can: Estimating Abundance of Dolphin Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Jessica; Curran, Mary Carla; Cox, Tara

    2016-01-01

    Animal populations are monitored over time to assess the effects of environmental disaster and disease, as well as the efficacy of laws designed to protect them. Determining the abundance of a species within a defined area is one method of monitoring a population. In "Capture" Me if You Can, middle school students will use data collected…

  6. An alternative procedure for estimating the population mean in simple random sampling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Housila P. Singh

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the problem of estimating the finite population mean using auxiliary information in simple random sampling. Firstly we have suggested a correction to the mean squared error of the estimator proposed by Gupta and Shabbir [On improvement in estimating the population mean in simple random sampling. Jour. Appl. Statist. 35(5 (2008, pp. 559-566]. Later we have proposed a ratio type estimator and its properties are studied in simple random sampling. Numerically we have shown that the proposed class of estimators is more efficient than different known estimators including Gupta and Shabbir (2008 estimator.

  7. [Study on the correlation between PMI and OD changes in rat's plasma].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Wei; Ke, Yong; He, Guang-she; Xu, Yong-cheng; Wang, Zhen-yuan

    2008-12-01

    We chose the UV-Vis spectrophotometry as a new way to investigate the postmortem interval (PMI). One hundred fifty Sprague-Dawley female rats (weight 260 g +/- 10 g, from Xi'an Jiaotong University Animal Center) were chosen and sacrificed by cervical dislocation. The bodies were kept in a controlled environmental chamber set at (20 +/- 2) degrees C. The plasma was harvested in course of 0 to 24 hours after death. The optical density (OD) at different wavelengths was measured with an UV-Vis spectrophotometer (type-UV250). It was shown that the OD changes of plasma at 577, 416 and 275 nm in 24 hours were dramatically related to PMI, and the R-indexes were 0.969, 0.97 and 0.898. The regression formulae of these indexes were worked out taking OD as independent variable, and PMI as variable. The quadratic equations were: PMI = 231.2270D(plasma at wavelength of 577 nm) - 501.160D(plasma at wavelength of 577 nm)2 - 3.0809(R2 = 0.945), PMI = 31.7426OD(plasma at wavelength of 416 nm) - 9.1847OD(plasma at wavelength of 416 nm)2 - 31837(R2 = 0.94), and PMI = 95.2388OD(plasma at wavelength of 275 nm) - 39.343OD(plama at wavelength of 275 nm)2 - 32.408(R2 = 0.795). It was concluded that the OD changes of rat's plasma are good and potential markers for the estimation of PMI and should be very useful in forensic practice.

  8. Reduction in Defect Content in ODS Alloys

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ritherdon, J.; Jones, A.R.

    2000-02-01

    The work detailed within this report is a continuation of earlier work that was carried out under contract number IDX-SY382V. The earlier work comprised a literature review of the sources and types of defects found principally in Fe-based ODS alloys together with a series of experiments designed to identify defects in ODS Fe{sub 3}Al material and recommend methods of defect reduction. Defects found in the Mechanically Alloyed (MA) ODS Fe{sub 3}Al included regions of incomplete MA, porosity, intrusions and fine-grained stringers. Some defects tended to be found in association with one another e.g. intrusions and fine-grained stringers. Preliminary powder separation experiments were also performed. The scope and objectives of the present work were laid out in the technical proposal ``Reduction in Defect Content in ODS Alloys--II'' which formed the basis of amendment 3 of the current contract. The current studies were devised in the context of the preceding work with a view to extending and concluding certain experiments while exploring new avenues of investigation of defect control and reduction where appropriate. All work proposed was within the context of achieving an ODS Fe{sub 3}Al alloy of improved overall quality and potential creep performance (particularly) in the consolidated, release condition. The interim outturn of the experimental work performed is also reported.

  9. ODS alloys for structures subjected to irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlan, Y. de

    2010-01-01

    ODS (oxide-dispersion-strengthened) materials are considered for cladding purposes for the fourth-generation sodium-cooled fast reactors. ODS materials afford many benefits. Indeed, these high-performance materials combine, at the same time, remarkable mechanical strength, in hot conditions, and outstanding irradiation behavior. New ODS steel grades, exhibiting better performance levels than the last-generation austenitic steels, afford not only negligible swelling under irradiation, owing to their 'ferritic' body-centered cubic structure - by contrast to austenitic grades, which feature a face-centered cubic structure - but equally outstanding creep properties, owing to the nano-reinforcements present in the matrix. ODS materials are obtained by powder metallurgy, the first fabrication step involves co-grinding a metal powder together with yttrium oxide (Y 2 O 3 ) powder. At this stage, an iron oxide may also be added, or an yttrium-rich intermetallic compound in order to provide the amounts of yttrium, and oxygen required for the formation of nano-oxides. The metal powder consists of a powder pre-alloyed to the chemical composition of the desired material. Once the powder has been obtained, consolidation of the ODS materials is achieved either by hot extrusion, or by hot isostatic pressing. (A.C.)

  10. Estimates of the Resident Nonimmigrant Population in the United States: 2008

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — This report presents estimates on the size and characteristics of the resident nonimmigrant population in the United States in 2008.1 The estimates were based on...

  11. Estimates of the Lawful Permanent Resident Population in the United States: January 2013

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — This report presents estimates of the lawful permanent resident (LPR) population living in the United States on January 1, 2013. The LPR population includes persons...

  12. Estimates of the Lawful Permanent Resident Population in the United States: January 2014

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — This report presents estimates of the lawful permanent resident (LPR) population living in the United States on January 1, 2014. The LPR population includes persons...

  13. Estimating a population cumulative incidence under calendar time trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Stefan N; Overgaard, Morten; Andersen, Per K

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The risk of a disease or psychiatric disorder is frequently measured by the age-specific cumulative incidence. Cumulative incidence estimates are often derived in cohort studies with individuals recruited over calendar time and with the end of follow-up governed by a specific date....... It is common practice to apply the Kaplan-Meier or Aalen-Johansen estimator to the total sample and report either the estimated cumulative incidence curve or just a single point on the curve as a description of the disease risk. METHODS: We argue that, whenever the disease or disorder of interest is influenced...

  14. Experimental design and estimation of growth rate distributions in size-structured shrimp populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Banks, H T; Davis, Jimena L; Ernstberger, Stacey L; Hu, Shuhua; Artimovich, Elena; Dhar, Arun K

    2009-01-01

    We discuss inverse problem results for problems involving the estimation of probability distributions using aggregate data for growth in populations. We begin with a mathematical model describing variability in the early growth process of size-structured shrimp populations and discuss a computational methodology for the design of experiments to validate the model and estimate the growth-rate distributions in shrimp populations. Parameter-estimation findings using experimental data from experiments so designed for shrimp populations cultivated at Advanced BioNutrition Corporation are presented, illustrating the usefulness of mathematical and statistical modeling in understanding the uncertainty in the growth dynamics of such populations

  15. Are rapid population estimates accurate? A field trial of two different assessment methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grais, Rebecca F; Coulombier, Denis; Ampuero, Julia; Lucas, Marcelino E S; Barretto, Avertino T; Jacquier, Guy; Diaz, Francisco; Balandine, Serge; Mahoudeau, Claude; Brown, Vincent

    2006-09-01

    Emergencies resulting in large-scale displacement often lead to populations resettling in areas where basic health services and sanitation are unavailable. To plan relief-related activities quickly, rapid population size estimates are needed. The currently recommended Quadrat method estimates total population by extrapolating the average population size living in square blocks of known area to the total site surface. An alternative approach, the T-Square, provides a population estimate based on analysis of the spatial distribution of housing units taken throughout a site. We field tested both methods and validated the results against a census in Esturro Bairro, Beira, Mozambique. Compared to the census (population: 9,479), the T-Square yielded a better population estimate (9,523) than the Quadrat method (7,681; 95% confidence interval: 6,160-9,201), but was more difficult for field survey teams to implement. Although applicable only to similar sites, several general conclusions can be drawn for emergency planning.

  16. The BGO-OD experiment. Status

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hannappel, Juergen [Physikalisches Institut der Universitaet Bonn (Germany); Collaboration: BGO-OD-Collaboration

    2015-07-01

    In the framework of an international collaboration a new detector is set up at the accelerator facility ELSA in Bonn, the BGO-OD experiment. It aims at systematic investigation of nonstrange and strange meson photoproduction, in particular t-channel processes at low momentum transfer. The setup uniquely combines a central almost 4π acceptance BGO crystal calorimeter with a large aperture forward magnetic spectrometer providing good detection of both neutral and charged particles, complementary to other setups like CB, LEPS or CLAS. An overview of the BGO-OD detector is presented. Preliminary data from the first data takings will be shown and discussed.

  17. A handbook of statistical graphics using SAS ODS

    CERN Document Server

    Der, Geoff

    2014-01-01

    An Introduction to Graphics: Good Graphics, Bad Graphics, Catastrophic Graphics and Statistical GraphicsThe Challenger DisasterGraphical DisplaysA Little History and Some Early Graphical DisplaysGraphical DeceptionAn Introduction to ODS GraphicsGenerating ODS GraphsODS DestinationsStatistical Graphics ProceduresODS Graphs from Statistical ProceduresControlling ODS GraphicsControlling Labelling in GraphsODS Graphics EditorGraphs for Displaying the Characteristics of Univariate Data: Horse Racing, Mortality Rates, Forearm Lengths, Survival Times and Geyser EruptionsIntroductionPie Chart, Bar Cha

  18. Detecting population recovery using gametic disequilibrium-based effective population size estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    David A. Tallmon; Robin S. Waples; Dave Gregovich; Michael K. Schwartz

    2012-01-01

    Recovering populations often must meet specific growth rate or abundance targets before their legal status can be changed from endangered or threatened. While the efficacy, power, and performance of population metrics to infer trends in declining populations has received considerable attention, how these same metrics perform when populations are increasing is less...

  19. Metallurgical comparison between the experimental ED-ODS and commercial ODS steels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fernandez, P.; Serrano, M.; Lapena, J.

    2007-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: Recently, reduced activation oxide dispersion strengthened ferritic/martensitic steels have been identified as potential structural material candidates for first wall and blanket structures of fusion devices. These steels allow to increase the operation temperature of the fusion reactor, around of 100 deg. C or even more, because of their excellent thermal creep resistance. ODS steels are being developed and investigated for nuclear fission and fusion applications in Japan, Europe and the United States. Commercial ODS products, such as MA956 and PM2000 are available and are being used for high temperature applications. Since no reduced activation ferritic/martensitic steels are commercially available at present, the European Materials Fusion Programme has considered in the last years initiate adequate research activities to produce and characterize these materials to evaluate the feasibility of their use in the different blanket designs. Nowadays, the ODS steel that are being extensively investigated in Europe is the denominated EU-ODS. This alloy has the basic composition of the Eurofer'97 with 0.3% of Y 2 O 3 particles. In this paper, the metallurgical properties (microstructural, Charpy, etc) of the newly developed EU-ODS steel are presented and discussed together with the properties of the commercial MA956 and PM2000 ODS steels, also studied in this work, in order to show the differences and similarities between these ODS alloys. (authors)

  20. Estimating sequestered parasite population dynamics in cerebral malaria

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gravenor, M. B.; van Hensbroek, M. B.; Kwiatkowski, D.

    1998-01-01

    Clinical investigation of malaria is hampered by the lack of a method for estimating the number of parasites that are sequestered in the tissues, for it is these parasites that are thought to be crucial to the pathogenesis of life-threatening complications such as cerebral malaria. We present a

  1. Nutrient load estimates for Manila Bay, Philippines using population data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sotto, Lara Patricia A; Beusen, Arthur H W; Villanoy, Cesar L.; Bouwman, Lex F.; Jacinto, Gil S.

    2015-01-01

    A major source of nutrient load to periodically hypoxic Manila Bay is the urban nutrient waste water flow from humans and industries to surface water. In Manila alone, the population density is as high as 19,137 people/km2. A model based on a global point source model by Morée et al. (2013) was used

  2. Radiation response of ODS ferritic steels with different oxide particles under ion-irradiation at 550 °C

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Peng; Morrall, Daniel; Zhang, Zhexian; Yabuuchi, Kiyohiro; Kimura, Akihiko

    2018-04-01

    In order to investigate the effects of oxide particles on radiation response such as hardness change and microstructural evolution, three types of oxide dispersion strengthened (ODS) ferritic steels (named Y-Ti-ODS, Y-Al-ODS and Y-Al-Zr-ODS), mostly strengthened by Y-Ti-O, Y-Al-O and Y-Zr-O dispersoids, respectively, were simultaneously irradiated with iron and helium ions at 550 °C up to a damage of 30 dpa and a corresponding helium (He) concentration of ∼3500 appm to a depth of 1000-1300 nm. A single iron ion beam irradiation was also performed for reference. Transmission electron microscopy revealed that after the dual ion irradiation helium bubbles of 2.8, 6.6 and 4.5 nm in mean diameter with the corresponding number densities of 1.1 × 1023, 2.7 × 1022 and 3.6 × 1022 m-3 were observed in Y-Ti-ODS, Y-Al-ODS and Y-Al-Zr-ODS, respectively, while no such bubbles were observed after single ion irradiation. About 80% of intragranular He bubbles were adjacent to oxide particles in the ODS ferritic steels. Although the high number density He bubbles were observed in the ODS steels, the void swelling in Y-Ti-ODS, Y-Al-ODS and Y-Al-Zr-ODS was still small and estimated to be 0.13%, 0.53% and 0.20%, respectively. The excellent swelling resistance is dominantly attributed to the high sink strength of oxide particles that depends on the morphology of particle dispersion rather than the crystal structure of the particles. In contrast, no dislocation loops were produced in any of the irradiated steels. Nanoindentation measurements showed that no irradiation hardening but softening was found in the ODS ferritic steels, which was probably due to irradiation induced dislocation recovery. The helium bubbles in high number density never contributed to the irradiation hardening of the ODS steels at these irradiation conditions.

  3. Bridging the gaps between non-invasive genetic sampling and population parameter estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francesca Marucco; Luigi Boitani; Daniel H. Pletscher; Michael K. Schwartz

    2011-01-01

    Reliable estimates of population parameters are necessary for effective management and conservation actions. The use of genetic data for capture­recapture (CR) analyses has become an important tool to estimate population parameters for elusive species. Strong emphasis has been placed on the genetic analysis of non-invasive samples, or on the CR analysis; however,...

  4. Counting and confusion: Bayesian rate estimation with multiple populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farr, Will M.; Gair, Jonathan R.; Mandel, Ilya; Cutler, Curt

    2015-01-01

    We show how to obtain a Bayesian estimate of the rates or numbers of signal and background events from a set of events when the shapes of the signal and background distributions are known, can be estimated, or approximated; our method works well even if the foreground and background event distributions overlap significantly and the nature of any individual event cannot be determined with any certainty. We give examples of determining the rates of gravitational-wave events in the presence of background triggers from a template bank when noise parameters are known and/or can be fit from the trigger data. We also give an example of determining globular-cluster shape, location, and density from an observation of a stellar field that contains a nonuniform background density of stars superimposed on the cluster stars.

  5. ESTIMATION OF THE BURDEN OF PESTICIDE RESIDUES IN SLOVAK POPULATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jozef Sokol

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Pesticides used in the agriculture have to be applied according to the requirements of good agricultural practice and appropriate law. Pesticides leave detectable residues in agricultural crops, raw materials and ecosystem components. Pesticides reach the human population through the food chain. Information on the type and concentration of pesticide residues in food is in Slovakia collected trough the monitoring programs. Health risks associated with pesticides contaminants in human nutrition are very important and are recently studied by several expert groups. Prerequisite programs are necessary to protect public health. Risk analysis and monitoring of the population burden by pesticide contaminants have to be performed in expert level. The general strategy for assessment of toxicity of pesticides is listed by the World health Organisation. Scientific risk assessment is the basis for taking action and making the legislation at national and European community level.doi:10.5219/69

  6. Field Test of Gopher Tortoise (Gopherus Polyphemus) Population Estimation Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-04-01

    Web (WWW) at URL: http://www.cecer.army.mil ERDC/CERL TR-08-7 4 2 Field Tests The gopher tortoise is a species of conservation concern in the... ncv D ⎛ ⎞⎛ ⎞ = ⎜ ⎟⎜ ⎟ ⎝ ⎠⎝ ⎠ (4) where: L = estimate of line length to be sampled b = dispersion parameter 2ˆ( )tcv D = desired coefficient of

  7. The study to estimate the floating population in Seoul, Korea

    OpenAIRE

    Lee, Geon Woo; Lee, Yong Jin; Kim, Youngeun; Hong, Seung-Han; Kim, Soohwaun; Kim, Jeong Soo; Lee, Jong Tae; Shin, Dong Chun; Lim, Youngwook

    2017-01-01

    Traffic-related pollutants have been reported to increase the morbidity of respiratory diseases. In order to apply management policies related to motor vehicles, studies of the floating population living in cities are important. The rate of metro rail transit system use by passengers residing in Seoul is about 54% of total public transportation use. Through the rate of metro use, the people-flow ratios in each administrative area were calculated. By applying a people-flow ratio based on the o...

  8. Estimating cancer risks induced by CT screening for Korea population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Hye Jeong; Yang, Won Seok

    2016-01-01

    Computed Tomography(CT) has been used to diagnose early stages of cancer and other diseases. Since the number of CT screening has been increasing, there is now a debate about the possible benefits and risks of CT screening on asymptomatic individuals. CT screening has definite benefits, however the radiation risk of screening an asymptomatic individual is a serious problem that cannot be overlooked. Despite its potential risks, CT screening for asymptomatic individual has been gradually increased in Korea and it is attributed to increase collective effective dose. Therefore, we reported the risk level of each organ which is included in scan field for CT screening and analyzed and then evaluated the risk level of Korean population comparison to others, Hong Kong, U.S. and U.K. populations. LARs are lower with older ages for all populations of both sexes. We recommend CT screening after the age of 40 because from that age, LAR decreases and the danger of top 5 cancer increases.

  9. Estimating demographic contributions to effective population size in an age-structured wild population experiencing environmental and demographic stochasticity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trask, Amanda E; Bignal, Eric M; McCracken, Davy I; Piertney, Stuart B; Reid, Jane M

    2017-09-01

    A population's effective size (N e ) is a key parameter that shapes rates of inbreeding and loss of genetic diversity, thereby influencing evolutionary processes and population viability. However, estimating N e , and identifying key demographic mechanisms that underlie the N e to census population size (N) ratio, remains challenging, especially for small populations with overlapping generations and substantial environmental and demographic stochasticity and hence dynamic age-structure. A sophisticated demographic method of estimating N e /N, which uses Fisher's reproductive value to account for dynamic age-structure, has been formulated. However, this method requires detailed individual- and population-level data on sex- and age-specific reproduction and survival, and has rarely been implemented. Here, we use the reproductive value method and detailed demographic data to estimate N e /N for a small and apparently isolated red-billed chough (Pyrrhocorax pyrrhocorax) population of high conservation concern. We additionally calculated two single-sample molecular genetic estimates of N e to corroborate the demographic estimate and examine evidence for unobserved immigration and gene flow. The demographic estimate of N e /N was 0.21, reflecting a high total demographic variance (σ2dg) of 0.71. Females and males made similar overall contributions to σ2dg. However, contributions varied among sex-age classes, with greater contributions from 3 year-old females than males, but greater contributions from ≥5 year-old males than females. The demographic estimate of N e was ~30, suggesting that rates of increase of inbreeding and loss of genetic variation per generation will be relatively high. Molecular genetic estimates of N e computed from linkage disequilibrium and approximate Bayesian computation were approximately 50 and 30, respectively, providing no evidence of substantial unobserved immigration which could bias demographic estimates of N e . Our analyses identify

  10. Reduction in Defect Content of ODS Alloys

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ritherdon, J

    2001-05-15

    The work detailed within this report is a continuation of earlier work carried out under contract number 1DX-SY382V. The earlier work comprises a literature review of the sources and types of defects found principally in Fe-based ODS alloys as well as experimental work designed to identify defects in the prototype ODS-Fe{sub 3}Al alloy, deduce their origins and to recommend methods of defect reduction. The present work is an extension of the experimental work already reported and concentrates on means of reduction of defects already identified rather than the search for new defect types. This report also includes results gathered during powder separation trials, conducted by the University of Groningen, Netherlands and coordinated by the University of Liverpool, involving the separation of different metallic powders in terms of their differing densities. The scope and objectives of the present work were laid out in the technical proposal ''Reduction in Defect Content in ODS Alloys-III''. All the work proposed in the ''Statement of Work'' section of the technical proposal has been carried out and all work extra to the ''Statement of Work'' falls within the context of an ODS-Fe{sub 3}Al alloy of improved overall quality and potential creep performance in the consolidated form. The outturn of the experimental work performed is reported in the following sections.

  11. Development of high performance ODS alloys

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shao, Lin [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States); Gao, Fei [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States); Garner, Frank [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States)

    2018-01-29

    This project aims to capitalize on insights developed from recent high-dose self-ion irradiation experiments in order to develop and test the next generation of optimized ODS alloys needed to meet the nuclear community's need for high strength, radiation-tolerant cladding and core components, especially with enhanced resistance to void swelling. Two of these insights are that ferrite grains swell earlier than tempered martensite grains, and oxide dispersions currently produced only in ferrite grains require a high level of uniformity and stability to be successful. An additional insight is that ODS particle stability is dependent on as-yet unidentified compositional combinations of dispersoid and alloy matrix, such as dispersoids are stable in MA957 to doses greater than 200 dpa but dissolve in MA956 at doses less than 200 dpa. These findings focus attention on candidate next-generation alloys which address these concerns. Collaboration with two Japanese groups provides this project with two sets of first-round candidate alloys that have already undergone extensive development and testing for unirradiated properties, but have not yet been evaluated for their irradiation performance. The first set of candidate alloys are dual phase (ferrite + martensite) ODS alloys with oxide particles uniformly distributed in both ferrite and martensite phases. The second set of candidate alloys are ODS alloys containing non-standard dispersoid compositions with controllable oxide particle sizes, phases and interfaces.

  12. Irradiation response of ODS Eurofer97 steel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luzginova, N.V., E-mail: luzginova@nrg.eu [Nuclear Research and Consultancy Group, Petten (Netherlands); Nolles, H.S.; Pierick, P. ten; Bakker, T.; Mutnuru, R.K.; Jong, M.; Blagoeva, D.T. [Nuclear Research and Consultancy Group, Petten (Netherlands)

    2012-09-15

    Oxide dispersion strengthened (ODS) Eurofer97 steel (EU batch, 0.3 wt.% of Y{sub 2}O{sub 3} particles), produced by mechanical alloying followed by hot rolling, is irradiated in the High Flux Reactor in Petten, The Netherlands at three different irradiation temperatures (300, 450 and 550 Degree-Sign C) up to nominal doses of 1 dpa and 3 dpa. The effect of neutron irradiation on the mechanical properties of ODS Eurofer97 material is investigated. It is shown that the irradiation hardening of ODS Eurofer97 steel occurs at 300 Degree-Sign C, whereas during irradiation at 450 and 550 Degree-Sign C no changes in mechanical properties are observed compared to the unirradiated material. This effect is possibly a result of the annealing of the irradiation damage at temperatures higher than 300 Degree-Sign C. The observed shifts in the Ductile to Brittle Transition Temperatures due to irradiation at different temperatures are discussed and compared with non-ODS Eurofer97 steel.

  13. OD structures in crystallography - basic concepts

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Ďurovič, S.; Hybler, Jiří

    2006-01-01

    Roč. 221, - (2006), s. 63-76 ISSN 0044-2968 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA205/03/0439 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10100521 Keywords : OD structures * polytypism * cronstedtite * kermesite * Fourier synthesis Subject RIV: BM - Solid Matter Physics ; Magnetism Impact factor: 1.897, year: 2006

  14. Understanding and estimating effective population size for practical application in marine species management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hare, Matthew P; Nunney, Leonard; Schwartz, Michael K; Ruzzante, Daniel E; Burford, Martha; Waples, Robin S; Ruegg, Kristen; Palstra, Friso

    2011-06-01

    Effective population size (N(e)) determines the strength of genetic drift in a population and has long been recognized as an important parameter for evaluating conservation status and threats to genetic health of populations. Specifically, an estimate of N(e) is crucial to management because it integrates genetic effects with the life history of the species, allowing for predictions of a population's current and future viability. Nevertheless, compared with ecological and demographic parameters, N(e) has had limited influence on species management, beyond its application in very small populations. Recent developments have substantially improved N(e) estimation; however, some obstacles remain for the practical application of N(e) estimates. For example, the need to define the spatial and temporal scale of measurement makes the concept complex and sometimes difficult to interpret. We reviewed approaches to estimation of N(e) over both long-term and contemporary time frames, clarifying their interpretations with respect to local populations and the global metapopulation. We describe multiple experimental factors affecting robustness of contemporary N(e) estimates and suggest that different sampling designs can be combined to compare largely independent measures of N(e) for improved confidence in the result. Large populations with moderate gene flow pose the greatest challenges to robust estimation of contemporary N(e) and require careful consideration of sampling and analysis to minimize estimator bias. We emphasize the practical utility of estimating N(e) by highlighting its relevance to the adaptive potential of a population and describing applications in management of marine populations, where the focus is not always on critically endangered populations. Two cases discussed include the mechanisms generating N(e) estimates many orders of magnitude lower than census N in harvested marine fishes and the predicted reduction in N(e) from hatchery-based population

  15. Annual survival rate estimate of satellite transmitter–marked eastern population greater sandhill cranes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fronczak, David L.; Andersen, David E.; Hanna, Everett E.; Cooper, Thomas R.

    2015-01-01

    Several surveys have documented the increasing population size and geographic distribution of Eastern Population greater sandhill cranes Grus canadensis tabida since the 1960s. Sport hunting of this population of sandhill cranes started in 2012 following the provisions of the Eastern Population Sandhill Crane Management Plan. However, there are currently no published estimates of Eastern Population sandhill crane survival rate that can be used to inform harvest management. As part of two studies of Eastern Population sandhill crane migration, we deployed solar-powered global positioning system platform transmitting terminals on Eastern Population sandhill cranes (n  =  42) at key concentration areas from 2009 to 2012. We estimated an annual survival rate for Eastern Population sandhill cranes from data resulting from monitoring these cranes by using the known-fates model in the MARK program. Estimated annual survival rate for adult Eastern Population sandhill cranes was 0.950 (95% confidence interval  =  0.885–0.979) during December 2009–August 2014. All fatalities (n  =  5) occurred after spring migration in late spring and early summer. We were unable to determine cause of death for crane fatalities in our study. Our survival rate estimate will be useful when combined with other population parameters such as the population index derived from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service fall survey, harvest, and recruitment rates to assess the effects of harvest on population size and trend and evaluate the effectiveness of management strategies.

  16. B-graph sampling to estimate the size of a hidden population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spreen, M.; Bogaerts, S.

    2015-01-01

    Link-tracing designs are often used to estimate the size of hidden populations by utilizing the relational links between their members. A major problem in studies of hidden populations is the lack of a convenient sampling frame. The most frequently applied design in studies of hidden populations is

  17. Long-term monitoring of endangered Laysan ducks: Index validation and population estimates 1998–2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, Michelle H.; Courtot, Karen; Brinck, Kevin W.; Rehkemper, Cynthia; Hatfield, Jeffrey

    2015-01-01

    Monitoring endangered wildlife is essential to assessing management or recovery objectives and learning about population status. We tested assumptions of a population index for endangered Laysan duck (or teal; Anas laysanensis) monitored using mark–resight methods on Laysan Island, Hawai’i. We marked 723 Laysan ducks between 1998 and 2009 and identified seasonal surveys through 2012 that met accuracy and precision criteria for estimating population abundance. Our results provide a 15-y time series of seasonal population estimates at Laysan Island. We found differences in detection among seasons and how observed counts related to population estimates. The highest counts and the strongest relationship between count and population estimates occurred in autumn (September–November). The best autumn surveys yielded population abundance estimates that ranged from 674 (95% CI = 619–730) in 2003 to 339 (95% CI = 265–413) in 2012. A population decline of 42% was observed between 2010 and 2012 after consecutive storms and Japan’s To¯hoku earthquake-generated tsunami in 2011. Our results show positive correlations between the seasonal maximum counts and population estimates from the same date, and support the use of standardized bimonthly counts of unmarked birds as a valid index to monitor trends among years within a season at Laysan Island.

  18. Estimation of mortality rates in stage-structured population

    CERN Document Server

    Wood, Simon N

    1991-01-01

    The stated aims of the Lecture Notes in Biomathematics allow for work that is "unfinished or tentative". This volume is offered in that spirit. The problem addressed is one of the classics of statistical ecology, the estimation of mortality rates from stage-frequency data, but in tackling it we found ourselves making use of ideas and techniques very different from those we expected to use, and in which we had no previous experience. Specifically we drifted towards consideration of some rather specific curve and surface fitting and smoothing techniques. We think we have made some progress (otherwise why publish?), but are acutely aware of the conceptual and statistical clumsiness of parts of the work. Readers with sufficient expertise to be offended should regard the monograph as a challenge to do better. The central theme in this book is a somewhat complex algorithm for mortality estimation (detailed at the end of Chapter 4). Because of its complexity, the job of implementing the method is intimidating. Any r...

  19. Population and antenatal-based HIV prevalence estimates in a high contracepting female population in rural South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barnighausen Till

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background To present and compare population-based and antenatal-care (ANC sentinel surveillance HIV prevalence estimates among women in a rural South African population where both provision of ANC services and family planning is prevalent and fertility is declining. With a need, in such settings, to understand how to appropriately adjust ANC sentinel surveillance estimates to represent HIV prevalence in general populations, and with evidence of possible biases inherent to both surveillance systems, we explore differences between the two systems. There is particular emphasis on unrepresentative selection of ANC clinics and unrepresentative testing in the population. Methods HIV sero-prevalence amongst blood samples collected from women consenting to test during the 2005 annual longitudinal population-based serological survey was compared to anonymous unlinked HIV sero-prevalence amongst women attending antenatal care (ANC first visits in six clinics (January to May 2005. Both surveillance systems were conducted as part of the Africa Centre Demographic Information System. Results Population-based HIV prevalence estimates for all women (25.2% and pregnant women (23.7% were significantly lower than that for ANC attendees (37.7%. A large proportion of women attending urban or peri-urban clinics would be predicted to be resident within rural areas. Although overall estimates remained significantly different, presenting and standardising estimates by age and location (clinic for ANC-based estimates and individual-residence for population-based estimates made some group-specific estimates from the two surveillance systems more predictive of one another. Conclusion It is likely that where ANC coverage and contraceptive use is widespread and fertility is low, population-based surveillance under-estimates HIV prevalence due to unrepresentative testing by age, residence and also probably by HIV status, and that ANC sentinel surveillance over-estimates

  20. Uncertainty in Population Estimates for Endangered Animals and Improving the Recovery Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janet L. Rachlow

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available United States recovery plans contain biological information for a species listed under the Endangered Species Act and specify recovery criteria to provide basis for species recovery. The objective of our study was to evaluate whether recovery plans provide uncertainty (e.g., variance with estimates of population size. We reviewed all finalized recovery plans for listed terrestrial vertebrate species to record the following data: (1 if a current population size was given, (2 if a measure of uncertainty or variance was associated with current estimates of population size and (3 if population size was stipulated for recovery. We found that 59% of completed recovery plans specified a current population size, 14.5% specified a variance for the current population size estimate and 43% specified population size as a recovery criterion. More recent recovery plans reported more estimates of current population size, uncertainty and population size as a recovery criterion. Also, bird and mammal recovery plans reported more estimates of population size and uncertainty compared to reptiles and amphibians. We suggest the use of calculating minimum detectable differences to improve confidence when delisting endangered animals and we identified incentives for individuals to get involved in recovery planning to improve access to quantitative data.

  1. The effect of organisational context on organisational development (OD) interventions

    OpenAIRE

    Sanjana Brijball Parumasur

    2012-01-01

    Orientation: Systematic and congruent organisational structures, systems, strategies and designs are necessary for the successful implementation of organisational development (OD) interventions. Research purpose: This article examines national and international OD practices. It assesses the effect of diverse cultures and cultural values for determining the effectiveness of OD interventions. Motivation for the study: Most organisational change and development programmes fail and only a ...

  2. 46 CFR 280.4 - Standards governing payment of ODS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 8 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Standards governing payment of ODS. 280.4 Section 280.4... Standards governing payment of ODS. (a) Full payment. Except to the extent otherwise provided in § 280.8, ODS shall be paid in full to the operator for vessel operations on the inbound and outbound legs of...

  3. A method for estimating abundance of mobile populations using telemetry and counts of unmarked animals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clement, Matthew; O'Keefe, Joy M; Walters, Brianne

    2015-01-01

    While numerous methods exist for estimating abundance when detection is imperfect, these methods may not be appropriate due to logistical difficulties or unrealistic assumptions. In particular, if highly mobile taxa are frequently absent from survey locations, methods that estimate a probability of detection conditional on presence will generate biased abundance estimates. Here, we propose a new estimator for estimating abundance of mobile populations using telemetry and counts of unmarked animals. The estimator assumes that the target population conforms to a fission-fusion grouping pattern, in which the population is divided into groups that frequently change in size and composition. If assumptions are met, it is not necessary to locate all groups in the population to estimate abundance. We derive an estimator, perform a simulation study, conduct a power analysis, and apply the method to field data. The simulation study confirmed that our estimator is asymptotically unbiased with low bias, narrow confidence intervals, and good coverage, given a modest survey effort. The power analysis provided initial guidance on survey effort. When applied to small data sets obtained by radio-tracking Indiana bats, abundance estimates were reasonable, although imprecise. The proposed method has the potential to improve abundance estimates for mobile species that have a fission-fusion social structure, such as Indiana bats, because it does not condition detection on presence at survey locations and because it avoids certain restrictive assumptions.

  4. 75 FR 44 - Temporary Suspension of the Population Estimates and Income Estimates Challenge Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-04

    ... final rule may be submitted to Dr. Enrique Lamas, Chief of the Population Division, through any of the...-mailed to: Enrique.Lamas@census.gov . Mail: Correspondence may be mailed to: Dr. Enrique Lamas, Chief...

  5. Comparison of Three Plot Selection Methods for Estimating Change in Temporally Variable, Spatially Clustered Populations.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thompson, William L. [Bonneville Power Administration, Portland, OR (US). Environment, Fish and Wildlife

    2001-07-01

    Monitoring population numbers is important for assessing trends and meeting various legislative mandates. However, sampling across time introduces a temporal aspect to survey design in addition to the spatial one. For instance, a sample that is initially representative may lose this attribute if there is a shift in numbers and/or spatial distribution in the underlying population that is not reflected in later sampled plots. Plot selection methods that account for this temporal variability will produce the best trend estimates. Consequently, I used simulation to compare bias and relative precision of estimates of population change among stratified and unstratified sampling designs based on permanent, temporary, and partial replacement plots under varying levels of spatial clustering, density, and temporal shifting of populations. Permanent plots produced more precise estimates of change than temporary plots across all factors. Further, permanent plots performed better than partial replacement plots except for high density (5 and 10 individuals per plot) and 25% - 50% shifts in the population. Stratified designs always produced less precise estimates of population change for all three plot selection methods, and often produced biased change estimates and greatly inflated variance estimates under sampling with partial replacement. Hence, stratification that remains fixed across time should be avoided when monitoring populations that are likely to exhibit large changes in numbers and/or spatial distribution during the study period. Key words: bias; change estimation; monitoring; permanent plots; relative precision; sampling with partial replacement; temporary plots.

  6. Use of the superpopulation approach to estimate breeding population size: An example in asynchronously breeding birds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, K.A.; Frederick, P.C.; Nichols, J.D.

    2011-01-01

    Many populations of animals are fluid in both space and time, making estimation of numbers difficult. Much attention has been devoted to estimation of bias in detection of animals that are present at the time of survey. However, an equally important problem is estimation of population size when all animals are not present on all survey occasions. Here, we showcase use of the superpopulation approach to capture-recapture modeling for estimating populations where group membership is asynchronous, and where considerable overlap in group membership among sampling occasions may occur. We estimate total population size of long-legged wading bird (Great Egret and White Ibis) breeding colonies from aerial observations of individually identifiable nests at various times in the nesting season. Initiation and termination of nests were analogous to entry and departure from a population. Estimates using the superpopulation approach were 47-382% larger than peak aerial counts of the same colonies. Our results indicate that the use of the superpopulation approach to model nesting asynchrony provides a considerably less biased and more efficient estimate of nesting activity than traditional methods. We suggest that this approach may also be used to derive population estimates in a variety of situations where group membership is fluid. ?? 2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

  7. The laser beam welding test of ODS fuel claddings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uwaba, Tomoyuki; Ukai, Shigeharu

    2004-06-01

    As a alternative method of pressurized resistance welding being currently developed, integrity evaluations for a laser beam welding joint between a ODS cladding tube and a FMS end plug were conducted for the purpose of studying the applicability of the laser beam welding technique to the welding with the lower end plug. The laser beam welding causes blowholes in the welding zone, whose effect on the high cycle fatigue strength of the joint is essential because of the flow-induced vibration during irradiation. The rotary bending tests using specimens with laser beam welding between ODS cladding tubes and FMS end plugs were carried out to evaluate the fatigue strength of the welding joint containing blowholes. The fatigue limit of stress amplitude about 200 MPa from 10 6 -10 7 cycles suggested that the laser beam welding joint had enough strength against the flow-induced vibration. Sizing of blowholes in the welding zone by using a micro X ray CT technique estimated the rate of defect areas due to blowholes at 1-2%. It is likely that the fatigue strength remained nearly unaffected by blowholes because of the no correlation between the breach of the rotary bending test specimen and the rate of defect area. Based on results of tensile test, internal burst test, Charpy impact test and fatigue test of welded zone, including study of allowable criteria of blowholes in the inspection, it is concluded that the laser beam welding can be probably applied to the welding between the ODS cladding tube and the FMS lower end plug. (author)

  8. Precipitates and boundaries interaction in ferritic ODS steels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sallez, Nicolas, E-mail: nicolas.sallez@simap.grenoble-inp.fr [Univ. Grenoble Alpes, SIMAP, F-38000 Grenoble (France); Hatzoglou, Constantinos [Groupe de Physique des Matériaux, Université et INSA de Rouen, UMR CNRS 6634, Normandie Université (France); Delabrouille, Fredéric [EDF–EDF R& D, Les Renardières, 77818 Moret-sur-Loing (France); Sornin, Denis; Chaffron, Laurent [CEA, DEN, Service de Recherches Métallurgiques Appliqué, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Blat-Yrieix, Martine [EDF–EDF R& D, Les Renardières, 77818 Moret-sur-Loing (France); Radiguet, Bertrand; Pareige, Philippe [Groupe de Physique des Matériaux, Université et INSA de Rouen, UMR CNRS 6634, Normandie Université (France); Donnadieu, Patricia; Bréchet, Yves [Univ. Grenoble Alpes, SIMAP, F-38000 Grenoble (France)

    2016-04-15

    In the course of a recrystallization study of Oxide Dispersion Strengthened (ODS) ferritic steels during extrusion, particular interest was paid to the (GB) Grain Boundaries interaction with precipitates. Complementary and corresponding characterization experiments using Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM), Energy Dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDX) and Atom Probe Tomography (APT) have been carried out on a voluntarily interrupted extrusion or extruded samples. Microscopic observations of Precipitate Free Zones (PFZ) and precipitates alignments suggest precipitate interaction with migrating GB involving dissolution and Oswald ripening of the precipitates. This is consistent with the local chemical information gathered by EDX and APT. This original mechanism for ODS steels is similar to what had been proposed in the late 80s for similar observation made on Ti alloys reinforced by nanosized yttrium oxides: An interaction mechanism between grain boundaries and precipitates involving a diffusion controlled process of precipitates dissolution at grain boundaries. It is believed that this mechanism can be of primary importance to explain the mechanical behaviour of such steels. - Highlights: • To study the microstructural evolution of a ferritic ODS steel during its extrusion, observations have been carried on samples resulting from a voluntarily interrupted extrusion and extruded materials. • A highly heterogeneous precipitate population have been observed. Nanosized coherent precipitates (2–5 nm) on both sides of the grain boundaries despite grain boundary migration after precipitation due to further thermo-mechanical processing as well as coarse precipitates (10–40 nm) alignments are observed on the grain boundaries and within the grains, parallel to the grain boundaries. • Asymmetrical PFZs can be observed around precipitates alignments and grain boundaries. Using TEM with EDX and APT we have been able to ensure that the PFZs are chemically depleted.

  9. Estimation of the size of the female sex worker population in Rwanda using three different methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mutagoma, Mwumvaneza; Kayitesi, Catherine; Gwiza, Aimé; Ruton, Hinda; Koleros, Andrew; Gupta, Neil; Balisanga, Helene; Riedel, David J; Nsanzimana, Sabin

    2015-10-01

    HIV prevalence is disproportionately high among female sex workers compared to the general population. Many African countries lack useful data on the size of female sex worker populations to inform national HIV programmes. A female sex worker size estimation exercise using three different venue-based methodologies was conducted among female sex workers in all provinces of Rwanda in August 2010. The female sex worker national population size was estimated using capture-recapture and enumeration methods, and the multiplier method was used to estimate the size of the female sex worker population in Kigali. A structured questionnaire was also used to supplement the data. The estimated number of female sex workers by the capture-recapture method was 3205 (95% confidence interval: 2998-3412). The female sex worker size was estimated at 3348 using the enumeration method. In Kigali, the female sex worker size was estimated at 2253 (95% confidence interval: 1916-2524) using the multiplier method. Nearly 80% of all female sex workers in Rwanda were found to be based in the capital, Kigali. This study provided a first-time estimate of the female sex worker population size in Rwanda using capture-recapture, enumeration, and multiplier methods. The capture-recapture and enumeration methods provided similar estimates of female sex worker in Rwanda. Combination of such size estimation methods is feasible and productive in low-resource settings and should be considered vital to inform national HIV programmes. © The Author(s) 2015.

  10. Radiation Stability of Nanoclusters in Nano-structured Oxide Dispersion Strengthened (ODS) Steels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Certain, Alicia G.; Kuchibhatla, Satyanarayana; Shutthanandan, V.; Allen, T. R.

    2013-01-01

    Nanostructured oxide dispersion strengthened (ODS) steels are considered candidates for nuclear fission and fusion applications at high temperature and dose. The complex oxide nanoclusters in these alloys provide high-temperature strength and are expected to afford better radiation resistance. Proton, heavy ion, and neutron irradiations have been performed to evaluate cluster stability in 14YWT and 9CrODS steel under a range of irradiation conditions. Energy-filtered transmission electron microscopy and atom probe tomography were used in this work to analyze the evolution of the oxide population.

  11. Worldwide F(ST) estimates relative to five continental-scale populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steele, Christopher D; Court, Denise Syndercombe; Balding, David J

    2014-11-01

    We estimate the population genetics parameter FST (also referred to as the fixation index) from short tandem repeat (STR) allele frequencies, comparing many worldwide human subpopulations at approximately the national level with continental-scale populations. FST is commonly used to measure population differentiation, and is important in forensic DNA analysis to account for remote shared ancestry between a suspect and an alternative source of the DNA. We estimate FST comparing subpopulations with a hypothetical ancestral population, which is the approach most widely used in population genetics, and also compare a subpopulation with a sampled reference population, which is more appropriate for forensic applications. Both estimation methods are likelihood-based, in which FST is related to the variance of the multinomial-Dirichlet distribution for allele counts. Overall, we find low FST values, with posterior 97.5 percentiles estimates, and are also about half the magnitude of STR-based estimates from population genetics surveys that focus on distinct ethnic groups rather than a general population. Our findings support the use of FST up to 3% in forensic calculations, which corresponds to some current practice.

  12. Facing the estimation of effective population size based on molecular markers: comparison of estimators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jimenez Mena, Belen; Verrier, Etienne; Hospital, Frederic

    an increase in the variability of values over time. The distance from the mean and the median to the true Ne increased over time too. This was caused by the fixation of alleles through time due to genetic drift and the changes in the distribution of allele frequencies. We compared the three estimators of Ne...

  13. Use of Mobile Device Data To Better Estimate Dynamic Population Size for Wastewater-Based Epidemiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Kevin V; Amador, Arturo; Baz-Lomba, Jose Antonio; Reid, Malcolm

    2017-10-03

    Wastewater-based epidemiology is an established approach for quantifying community drug use and has recently been applied to estimate population exposure to contaminants such as pesticides and phthalate plasticizers. A major source of uncertainty in the population weighted biomarker loads generated is related to estimating the number of people present in a sewer catchment at the time of sample collection. Here, the population quantified from mobile device-based population activity patterns was used to provide dynamic population normalized loads of illicit drugs and pharmaceuticals during a known period of high net fluctuation in the catchment population. Mobile device-based population activity patterns have for the first time quantified the high degree of intraday, week, and month variability within a specific sewer catchment. Dynamic population normalization showed that per capita pharmaceutical use remained unchanged during the period when static normalization would have indicated an average reduction of up to 31%. Per capita illicit drug use increased significantly during the monitoring period, an observation that was only possible to measure using dynamic population normalization. The study quantitatively confirms previous assessments that population estimates can account for uncertainties of up to 55% in static normalized data. Mobile device-based population activity patterns allow for dynamic normalization that yields much improved temporal and spatial trend analysis.

  14. Estimating effective population size from linkage disequilibrium between unlinked loci: theory and application to fruit fly outbreak populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John A Sved

    Full Text Available There is a substantial literature on the use of linkage disequilibrium (LD to estimate effective population size using unlinked loci. The Ne estimates are extremely sensitive to the sampling process, and there is currently no theory to cope with the possible biases. We derive formulae for the analysis of idealised populations mating at random with multi-allelic (microsatellite loci. The 'Burrows composite index' is introduced in a novel way with a 'composite haplotype table'. We show that in a sample of diploid size S, the mean value of x2 or r2 from the composite haplotype table is biased by a factor of 1-1/(2S-12, rather than the usual factor 1+1/(2S-1 for a conventional haplotype table. But analysis of population data using these formulae leads to Ne estimates that are unrealistically low. We provide theory and simulation to show that this bias towards low Ne estimates is due to null alleles, and introduce a randomised permutation correction to compensate for the bias. We also consider the effect of introducing a within-locus disequilibrium factor to r2, and find that this factor leads to a bias in the Ne estimate. However this bias can be overcome using the same randomised permutation correction, to yield an altered r2 with lower variance than the original r2, and one that is also insensitive to null alleles. The resulting formulae are used to provide Ne estimates on 40 samples of the Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera tryoni, from populations with widely divergent Ne expectations. Linkage relationships are known for most of the microsatellite loci in this species. We find that there is little difference in the estimated Ne values from using known unlinked loci as compared to using all loci, which is important for conservation studies where linkage relationships are unknown.

  15. Estimating effective population size from linkage disequilibrium between unlinked loci: theory and application to fruit fly outbreak populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sved, John A; Cameron, Emilie C; Gilchrist, A Stuart

    2013-01-01

    There is a substantial literature on the use of linkage disequilibrium (LD) to estimate effective population size using unlinked loci. The Ne estimates are extremely sensitive to the sampling process, and there is currently no theory to cope with the possible biases. We derive formulae for the analysis of idealised populations mating at random with multi-allelic (microsatellite) loci. The 'Burrows composite index' is introduced in a novel way with a 'composite haplotype table'. We show that in a sample of diploid size S, the mean value of x2 or r2 from the composite haplotype table is biased by a factor of 1-1/(2S-1)2, rather than the usual factor 1+1/(2S-1) for a conventional haplotype table. But analysis of population data using these formulae leads to Ne estimates that are unrealistically low. We provide theory and simulation to show that this bias towards low Ne estimates is due to null alleles, and introduce a randomised permutation correction to compensate for the bias. We also consider the effect of introducing a within-locus disequilibrium factor to r2, and find that this factor leads to a bias in the Ne estimate. However this bias can be overcome using the same randomised permutation correction, to yield an altered r2 with lower variance than the original r2, and one that is also insensitive to null alleles. The resulting formulae are used to provide Ne estimates on 40 samples of the Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera tryoni, from populations with widely divergent Ne expectations. Linkage relationships are known for most of the microsatellite loci in this species. We find that there is little difference in the estimated Ne values from using known unlinked loci as compared to using all loci, which is important for conservation studies where linkage relationships are unknown.

  16. Estimates of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population Residing in the United States: January 2012

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — This report provides estimates of the size of the unauthorized immigrant population residing in the United States as of January 2012 by period of entry, region and...

  17. Estimates of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population Residing in the United States: January 2011

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — This report provides estimates of the size of the unauthorized immigrant population residing in the United States as of January 2011 by period of entry, region and...

  18. Sanitary and hygienic state estimation of population determined by cancer morbidity level

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coretchi, L.; Cucereanu, A.

    2009-01-01

    The European recommendations of Cancer Register elaboration are presented in this paper. A short literature review about sanitary and hygienic estimation status of population thru determination of cancer morbidity level also has been performed. (authors)

  19. Semiparametric efficient and robust estimation of an unknown symmetric population under arbitrary sample selection bias

    KAUST Repository

    Ma, Yanyuan

    2013-09-01

    We propose semiparametric methods to estimate the center and shape of a symmetric population when a representative sample of the population is unavailable due to selection bias. We allow an arbitrary sample selection mechanism determined by the data collection procedure, and we do not impose any parametric form on the population distribution. Under this general framework, we construct a family of consistent estimators of the center that is robust to population model misspecification, and we identify the efficient member that reaches the minimum possible estimation variance. The asymptotic properties and finite sample performance of the estimation and inference procedures are illustrated through theoretical analysis and simulations. A data example is also provided to illustrate the usefulness of the methods in practice. © 2013 American Statistical Association.

  20. Estimating the Population-Level Effectiveness of Vaccination Programs in the Netherlands.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Wijhe, Maarten; McDonald, Scott A; de Melker, Hester E; Postma, Maarten J; Wallinga, Jacco

    There are few estimates of the effectiveness of long-standing vaccination programs in developed countries. To fill this gap, we investigate the direct and indirect effectiveness of childhood vaccination programs on mortality at the population level in the Netherlands.

  1. Estimates of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population Residing in the United States: January 2010

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — This report provides estimates of the size of the unauthorized immigrant population residing in the United States as of January 2010 by period of entry, region and...

  2. Development of Austenitic ODS Strengthened Alloys for Very High Temperature Applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stubbins, James [Univ. of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL (United States); Heuser, Brent [Univ. of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL (United States); Robertson, Ian [Kyushu Univ. (Japan); Sehitoglu, Huseyin [Univ. of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL (United States); Sofronis, Petros [Kyushu Univ. (Japan); Gewirth, Andrew [Kyushu Univ. (Japan)

    2015-04-22

    overall properties. With this understanding, the major materials development challenge is to provide a high uniformly distributed population of very fine ODS particles to be able to realize the full promise of dispersion strengthening. This should be a major goal of future work. This program had the further goal to develop graduate student researcher with the experience and capabilities to move this field forward. The support in this program was used for graduate student support and for research expenses; none of the program funds directly supported the faculty in the program. In this sense, the program was successful in supporting several very promising graduate researchers. Four of the graduate students supported here will complete their PhDs in 2015.

  3. New population and life expectancy estimates for the Indigenous population of Australia's Northern Territory, 1966-2011.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tom Wilson

    Full Text Available The Indigenous population of Australia suffers considerable disadvantage across a wide range of socio-economic indicators, and is therefore the focus of many policy initiatives attempting to 'close the gap' between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians. Unfortunately, past population estimates have proved unreliable as denominators for these indicators. The aim of the paper is to contribute more robust estimates for the Northern Territory Indigenous population for the period 1966-2011, and hence estimate one of the most important of socio-economic indicators, life expectancy at birth.A consistent time series of population estimates from 1966 to 2011, based off the more reliable 2011 official population estimates, was created by a mix of reverse and forward cohort survival. Adjustments were made to ensure sensible sex ratios and consistency with recent birth registrations. Standard life table methods were employed to estimate life expectancy. Drawing on an approach from probabilistic forecasting, confidence intervals surrounding population numbers and life expectancies were estimated.The Northern Territory Indigenous population in 1966 numbered between 23,800 and 26,100, compared to between 66,100 and 73,200 in 2011. In 1966-71 Indigenous life expectancy at birth lay between 49.1 and 56.9 years for males and between 49.7 and 57.9 years for females, whilst by 2006-11 it had increased to between 60.5 and 66.2 years for males and between 65.4 and 70.8 for females. Over the last 40 years the gap with all-Australian life expectancy has not narrowed, fluctuating at about 17 years for both males and females. Whilst considerable progress has been made in closing the gap in under-five mortality, at most other ages the mortality rate differential has increased.A huge public health challenge remains. Efforts need to be redoubled to reduce the large gap in life expectancy between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians.

  4. Population Estimation in Singapore Based on Remote Sensing and Open Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, H.; Cao, K.; Wang, P.

    2017-09-01

    Population estimation statistics are widely used in government, commercial and educational sectors for a variety of purposes. With growing emphases on real-time and detailed population information, data users nowadays have switched from traditional census data to more technology-based data source such as LiDAR point cloud and High-Resolution Satellite Imagery. Nevertheless, such data are costly and periodically unavailable. In this paper, the authors use West Coast District, Singapore as a case study to investigate the applicability and effectiveness of using satellite image from Google Earth for extraction of building footprint and population estimation. At the same time, volunteered geographic information (VGI) is also utilized as ancillary data for building footprint extraction. Open data such as Open Street Map OSM could be employed to enhance the extraction process. In view of challenges in building shadow extraction, this paper discusses several methods including buffer, mask and shape index to improve accuracy. It also illustrates population estimation methods based on building height and number of floor estimates. The results show that the accuracy level of housing unit method on population estimation can reach 92.5 %, which is remarkably accurate. This paper thus provides insights into techniques for building extraction and fine-scale population estimation, which will benefit users such as urban planners in terms of policymaking and urban planning of Singapore.

  5. POPULATION ESTIMATION IN SINGAPORE BASED ON REMOTE SENSING AND OPEN DATA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Guo

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Population estimation statistics are widely used in government, commercial and educational sectors for a variety of purposes. With growing emphases on real-time and detailed population information, data users nowadays have switched from traditional census data to more technology-based data source such as LiDAR point cloud and High-Resolution Satellite Imagery. Nevertheless, such data are costly and periodically unavailable. In this paper, the authors use West Coast District, Singapore as a case study to investigate the applicability and effectiveness of using satellite image from Google Earth for extraction of building footprint and population estimation. At the same time, volunteered geographic information (VGI is also utilized as ancillary data for building footprint extraction. Open data such as Open Street Map(OSM)could be employed to enhance the extraction process. In view of challenges in building shadow extraction, this paper discusses several methods including buffer, mask and shape index to improve accuracy. It also illustrates population estimation methods based on building height and number of floor estimates. The results show that the accuracy level of housing unit method on population estimation can reach 92.5 %, which is remarkably accurate. This paper thus provides insights into techniques for building extraction and fine-scale population estimation, which will benefit users such as urban planners in terms of policymaking and urban planning of Singapore.

  6. On estimation of time-dependent attributable fraction from population-based case-control studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Wei; Chen, Ying Qing; Hsu, Li

    2017-09-01

    Population attributable fraction (PAF) is widely used to quantify the disease burden associated with a modifiable exposure in a population. It has been extended to a time-varying measure that provides additional information on when and how the exposure's impact varies over time for cohort studies. However, there is no estimation procedure for PAF using data that are collected from population-based case-control studies, which, because of time and cost efficiency, are commonly used for studying genetic and environmental risk factors of disease incidences. In this article, we show that time-varying PAF is identifiable from a case-control study and develop a novel estimator of PAF. Our estimator combines odds ratio estimates from logistic regression models and density estimates of the risk factor distribution conditional on failure times in cases from a kernel smoother. The proposed estimator is shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal with asymptotic variance that can be estimated empirically from the data. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed estimator performs well in finite sample sizes. Finally, the method is illustrated by a population-based case-control study of colorectal cancer. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

  7. Estimation of daily food usage factors for assessing radionuclide intakes in the US population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Y.Y.; Nelson, C.B.

    1986-01-01

    We have statistically analyzed data from the 1977-78 USDA Nationwide Food Consumption Survey to estimate the daily average food intakes by individuals in the general population and various subpopulations of the United States. These estimates are intended for use in assessing radionuclide intake by individuals through food consumption. We have also compared our results with those from other studies

  8. Differential estimates of southern flying squirrel (Glaucomys volans) population structure based on capture method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevin S. Laves; Susan C. Loeb

    2005-01-01

    It is commonly assumed that population estimates derived from trapping small mammals are accurate and unbiased or that estimates derived from different capture methods are comparable. We captured southern flying squirrels (Glaucmrtys volam) using two methods to study their effect on red-cockaded woodpecker (Picoides bumah) reproductive success. Southern flying...

  9. Inverse sampled Bernoulli (ISB) procedure for estimating a population proportion, with nuclear material applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wright, T.

    1982-01-01

    A new sampling procedure is introduced for estimating a population proportion. The procedure combines the ideas of inverse binomial sampling and Bernoulli sampling. An unbiased estimator is given with its variance. The procedure can be viewed as a generalization of inverse binomial sampling

  10. Estimation of the ancestral effective population sizes of African great apes under different selection regimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schrago, Carlos G

    2014-08-01

    Reliable estimates of ancestral effective population sizes are necessary to unveil the population-level phenomena that shaped the phylogeny and molecular evolution of the African great apes. Although several methods have previously been applied to infer ancestral effective population sizes, an analysis of the influence of the selective regime on the estimates of ancestral demography has not been thoroughly conducted. In this study, three independent data sets under different selective regimes were used were composed to tackle this issue. The results showed that selection had a significant impact on the estimates of ancestral effective population sizes of the African great apes. The inference of the ancestral demography of African great apes was affected by the selection regime. The effects, however, were not homogeneous along the ancestral populations of great apes. The effective population size of the ancestor of humans and chimpanzees was more impacted by the selection regime when compared to the same parameter in the ancestor of humans, chimpanzees and gorillas. Because the selection regime influenced the estimates of ancestral effective population size, it is reasonable to assume that a portion of the discrepancy found in previous studies that inferred the ancestral effective population size may be attributable to the differential action of selection on the genes sampled.

  11. Effects of sample size on estimates of population growth rates calculated with matrix models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian J Fiske

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Matrix models are widely used to study the dynamics and demography of populations. An important but overlooked issue is how the number of individuals sampled influences estimates of the population growth rate (lambda calculated with matrix models. Even unbiased estimates of vital rates do not ensure unbiased estimates of lambda-Jensen's Inequality implies that even when the estimates of the vital rates are accurate, small sample sizes lead to biased estimates of lambda due to increased sampling variance. We investigated if sampling variability and the distribution of sampling effort among size classes lead to biases in estimates of lambda. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using data from a long-term field study of plant demography, we simulated the effects of sampling variance by drawing vital rates and calculating lambda for increasingly larger populations drawn from a total population of 3842 plants. We then compared these estimates of lambda with those based on the entire population and calculated the resulting bias. Finally, we conducted a review of the literature to determine the sample sizes typically used when parameterizing matrix models used to study plant demography. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We found significant bias at small sample sizes when survival was low (survival = 0.5, and that sampling with a more-realistic inverse J-shaped population structure exacerbated this bias. However our simulations also demonstrate that these biases rapidly become negligible with increasing sample sizes or as survival increases. For many of the sample sizes used in demographic studies, matrix models are probably robust to the biases resulting from sampling variance of vital rates. However, this conclusion may depend on the structure of populations or the distribution of sampling effort in ways that are unexplored. We suggest more intensive sampling of populations when individual survival is low and greater sampling of stages with high

  12. Effects of sample size on estimates of population growth rates calculated with matrix models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiske, Ian J; Bruna, Emilio M; Bolker, Benjamin M

    2008-08-28

    Matrix models are widely used to study the dynamics and demography of populations. An important but overlooked issue is how the number of individuals sampled influences estimates of the population growth rate (lambda) calculated with matrix models. Even unbiased estimates of vital rates do not ensure unbiased estimates of lambda-Jensen's Inequality implies that even when the estimates of the vital rates are accurate, small sample sizes lead to biased estimates of lambda due to increased sampling variance. We investigated if sampling variability and the distribution of sampling effort among size classes lead to biases in estimates of lambda. Using data from a long-term field study of plant demography, we simulated the effects of sampling variance by drawing vital rates and calculating lambda for increasingly larger populations drawn from a total population of 3842 plants. We then compared these estimates of lambda with those based on the entire population and calculated the resulting bias. Finally, we conducted a review of the literature to determine the sample sizes typically used when parameterizing matrix models used to study plant demography. We found significant bias at small sample sizes when survival was low (survival = 0.5), and that sampling with a more-realistic inverse J-shaped population structure exacerbated this bias. However our simulations also demonstrate that these biases rapidly become negligible with increasing sample sizes or as survival increases. For many of the sample sizes used in demographic studies, matrix models are probably robust to the biases resulting from sampling variance of vital rates. However, this conclusion may depend on the structure of populations or the distribution of sampling effort in ways that are unexplored. We suggest more intensive sampling of populations when individual survival is low and greater sampling of stages with high elasticities.

  13. Mercury and methylmercury intake estimation due to seafood products for the Catalonian population (Spain)

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    Abstract This study estimates mercury and methylmercury levels in fish and fishery products commercialized in the city of Barcelona from 2001 to 2007. Combining food levels data with the consumption data of 2158 people (as the median of two 24-hour-recall), the total Mercury intake of the Catalonian population was calculated. Mercury was detected in 32,8% of analyses samples. The general population average weekly intake of total mercury in Catalonian population was 0.783 ?g/k...

  14. Multiple data sources improve DNA-based mark-recapture population estimates of grizzly bears.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boulanger, John; Kendall, Katherine C; Stetz, Jeffrey B; Roon, David A; Waits, Lisette P; Paetkau, David

    2008-04-01

    A fundamental challenge to estimating population size with mark-recapture methods is heterogeneous capture probabilities and subsequent bias of population estimates. Confronting this problem usually requires substantial sampling effort that can be difficult to achieve for some species, such as carnivores. We developed a methodology that uses two data sources to deal with heterogeneity and applied this to DNA mark-recapture data from grizzly bears (Ursus arctos). We improved population estimates by incorporating additional DNA "captures" of grizzly bears obtained by collecting hair from unbaited bear rub trees concurrently with baited, grid-based, hair snag sampling. We consider a Lincoln-Petersen estimator with hair snag captures as the initial session and rub tree captures as the recapture session and develop an estimator in program MARK that treats hair snag and rub tree samples as successive sessions. Using empirical data from a large-scale project in the greater Glacier National Park, Montana, USA, area and simulation modeling we evaluate these methods and compare the results to hair-snag-only estimates. Empirical results indicate that, compared with hair-snag-only data, the joint hair-snag-rub-tree methods produce similar but more precise estimates if capture and recapture rates are reasonably high for both methods. Simulation results suggest that estimators are potentially affected by correlation of capture probabilities between sample types in the presence of heterogeneity. Overall, closed population Huggins-Pledger estimators showed the highest precision and were most robust to sparse data, heterogeneity, and capture probability correlation among sampling types. Results also indicate that these estimators can be used when a segment of the population has zero capture probability for one of the methods. We propose that this general methodology may be useful for other species in which mark-recapture data are available from multiple sources.

  15. Precision and accuracy of commonly used dental age estimation charts for the New Zealand population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baylis, Stephanie; Bassed, Richard

    2017-08-01

    Little research has been undertaken for the New Zealand population in the field of dental age estimation. This research to date indicates there are differences in dental developmental rates between the New Zealand population and other global population groups, and within the New Zealand population itself. Dental age estimation methods range from dental development charts to complex biometric analysis. Dental development charts are not the most accurate method of dental age estimation, but are time saving in their use. They are an excellent screening tool, particularly for post-mortem identification purposes, and for assessing variation from population norms in living individuals. The aim of this study was to test the precision and accuracy of three dental development charts (Schour and Massler, Blenkin and Taylor, and the London Atlas), used to estimate dental age of a sample of New Zealand juveniles between the ages of 5 and 18 years old (n=875). Percentage 'best fit' to correct age category and to expected chart stage were calculated to determine which chart was the most precise for the sample. Chronological ages were compared to estimated dental ages using a two-tailed paired t-test (Pcharts tested against the New Zealand population sample, the Blenkin and Taylor Australian charts performed best overall. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Water corrosion test of oxide dispersion strengthened (ODS) steel claddings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narita, Takeshi; Ukai, Shigeharu; Kaito, Takeji; Ohtsuka, Satoshi; Matsuda, Yasushi

    2006-07-01

    As a part of feasibility study of ODS steel cladding, its water corrosion resistance was examined under water pool condition. Although addition of Cr is effective for preventing water corrosion, excessive Cr addition leads to embrittlement due to the Cr-rich α' precipitate formation. In the ODS steel developed by the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA), the Cr content is controlled in 9Cr-ODS martensite and 12Cr-ODS ferrite. In this study, water corrosion test was conducted for these ODS steels, and their results were compared with that of conventional austenitic stainless steel and ferritic-martensitic stainless steel. Following results were obtained in this study. (1) Corrosion rate of 9Cr-ODS martensitic and 12Cr-ODS ferritic steel are significantly small and no pitting was observed. Thus, these ODS steels have superior resistance for water corrosion under the condition of 60degC and pH8-12. (2) It was showed that 9Cr-ODS martensitic steel and 12Cr-ODS ferritic steel have comparable water corrosion resistance to that of PNC316 and PNC-FMS at 60degC for 1,000h under varying pH of 8, 10. Water corrosion resistance of these alloys is slightly larger than that of PNC316 and PNC-FMS at pH12 without significant difference of appearance and uneven condition. (author)

  17. Set-membership estimations for the evolution of infectious diseases in heterogeneous populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsachev, Tsvetomir; Veliov, Vladimir M; Widder, Andreas

    2017-04-01

    The paper presents an approach for set-membership estimation of the state of a heterogeneous population in which an infectious disease is spreading. The population state may consist of susceptible, infected, recovered, etc. groups, where the individuals are heterogeneous with respect to traits, relevant to the particular disease. Set-membership estimations in this context are reasonable, since only vague information about the distribution of the population along the space of heterogeneity is available in practice. The presented approach comprises adapted versions of methods which are known in estimation and control theory, and involve solving parametrized families of optimization problems. Since the models of disease spreading in heterogeneous populations involve distributed systems (with non-local dynamics and endogenous boundary conditions), these problems are non-standard. The paper develops the needed theoretical instruments and a solution scheme. SI and SIR models of epidemic diseases are considered as case studies and the results reveal qualitative properties that may be of interest.

  18. Bayesian estimates of male and female African lion mortality for future use in population management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barthold, Julia A; Loveridge, Andrew; Macdonald, David

    2016-01-01

    1. The global population size of African lions is plummeting, and many small fragmented populations face local extinction. Extinction risks are amplified through the common practice of trophy hunting for males, which makes setting sustainable hunting quotas a vital task. 2. Various demographic...... models evaluate consequences of hunting on lion population growth. However, none of the models use unbiased estimates of male age-specific mortality because such estimates do not exist. Until now, estimating mortality from resighting records of marked males has been impossible due to the uncertain fates...... of disappeared individuals: dispersal or death. 3. We develop a new method and infer mortality for male and female lions from two popula- tions that are typical with respect to their experienced levels of human impact. 4. We found that mortality of both sexes differed between the populations and that males had...

  19. Estimating changes in urban land and urban population using refined areal interpolation techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zoraghein, Hamidreza; Leyk, Stefan

    2018-05-01

    The analysis of changes in urban land and population is important because the majority of future population growth will take place in urban areas. U.S. Census historically classifies urban land using population density and various land-use criteria. This study analyzes the reliability of census-defined urban lands for delineating the spatial distribution of urban population and estimating its changes over time. To overcome the problem of incompatible enumeration units between censuses, regular areal interpolation methods including Areal Weighting (AW) and Target Density Weighting (TDW), with and without spatial refinement, are implemented. The goal in this study is to estimate urban population in Massachusetts in 1990 and 2000 (source zones), within tract boundaries of the 2010 census (target zones), respectively, to create a consistent time series of comparable urban population estimates from 1990 to 2010. Spatial refinement is done using ancillary variables such as census-defined urban areas, the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) and the Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) as well as different combinations of them. The study results suggest that census-defined urban areas alone are not necessarily the most meaningful delineation of urban land. Instead, it appears that alternative combinations of the above-mentioned ancillary variables can better depict the spatial distribution of urban land, and thus make it possible to reduce the estimation error in transferring the urban population from source zones to target zones when running spatially-refined temporal areal interpolation.

  20. A comparison of methods for calculating population exposure estimates of daily weather for health research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dear Keith BG

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background To explain the possible effects of exposure to weather conditions on population health outcomes, weather data need to be calculated at a level in space and time that is appropriate for the health data. There are various ways of estimating exposure values from raw data collected at weather stations but the rationale for using one technique rather than another; the significance of the difference in the values obtained; and the effect these have on a research question are factors often not explicitly considered. In this study we compare different techniques for allocating weather data observations to small geographical areas and different options for weighting averages of these observations when calculating estimates of daily precipitation and temperature for Australian Postal Areas. Options that weight observations based on distance from population centroids and population size are more computationally intensive but give estimates that conceptually are more closely related to the experience of the population. Results Options based on values derived from sites internal to postal areas, or from nearest neighbour sites – that is, using proximity polygons around weather stations intersected with postal areas – tended to include fewer stations' observations in their estimates, and missing values were common. Options based on observations from stations within 50 kilometres radius of centroids and weighting of data by distance from centroids gave more complete estimates. Using the geographic centroid of the postal area gave estimates that differed slightly from the population weighted centroids and the population weighted average of sub-unit estimates. Conclusion To calculate daily weather exposure values for analysis of health outcome data for small areas, the use of data from weather stations internal to the area only, or from neighbouring weather stations (allocated by the use of proximity polygons, is too limited. The most

  1. Linking resource selection and mortality modeling for population estimation of mountain lions in Montana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Hugh S.; Ruth, Toni K.; Gude, Justin A.; Choate, David; DeSimone, Rich; Hebblewhite, Mark; Matchett, Marc R.; Mitchell, Michael S.; Murphy, Kerry; Williams, Jim

    2015-01-01

    To be most effective, the scale of wildlife management practices should match the range of a particular species’ movements. For this reason, combined with our inability to rigorously or regularly census mountain lion populations, several authors have suggested that mountain lions be managed in a source-sink or metapopulation framework. We used a combination of resource selection functions, mortality estimation, and dispersal modeling to estimate cougar population levels in Montana statewide and potential population level effects of planned harvest levels. Between 1980 and 2012, 236 independent mountain lions were collared and monitored for research in Montana. From these data we used 18,695 GPS locations collected during winter from 85 animals to develop a resource selection function (RSF), and 11,726 VHF and GPS locations from 142 animals along with the locations of 6343 mountain lions harvested from 1988–2011 to validate the RSF model. Our RSF model validated well in all portions of the State, although it appeared to perform better in Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks (MFWP) Regions 1, 2, 4 and 6, than in Regions 3, 5, and 7. Our mean RSF based population estimate for the total population (kittens, juveniles, and adults) of mountain lions in Montana in 2005 was 3926, with almost 25% of the entire population in MFWP Region 1. Estimates based on a high and low reference population estimates produce a possible range of 2784 to 5156 mountain lions statewide. Based on a range of possible survival rates we estimated the mountain lion population in Montana to be stable to slightly increasing between 2005 and 2010 with lambda ranging from 0.999 (SD = 0.05) to 1.02 (SD = 0.03). We believe these population growth rates to be a conservative estimate of true population growth. Our model suggests that proposed changes to female harvest quotas for 2013–2015 will result in an annual statewide population decline of 3% and shows that, due to reduced dispersal, changes to

  2. A probabilistic method for testing and estimating selection differences between populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Yungang; Wang, Minxian; Huang, Xin; Li, Ran; Xu, Hongyang; Xu, Shuhua; Jin, Li

    2015-12-01

    Human populations around the world encounter various environmental challenges and, consequently, develop genetic adaptations to different selection forces. Identifying the differences in natural selection between populations is critical for understanding the roles of specific genetic variants in evolutionary adaptation. Although numerous methods have been developed to detect genetic loci under recent directional selection, a probabilistic solution for testing and quantifying selection differences between populations is lacking. Here we report the development of a probabilistic method for testing and estimating selection differences between populations. By use of a probabilistic model of genetic drift and selection, we showed that logarithm odds ratios of allele frequencies provide estimates of the differences in selection coefficients between populations. The estimates approximate a normal distribution, and variance can be estimated using genome-wide variants. This allows us to quantify differences in selection coefficients and to determine the confidence intervals of the estimate. Our work also revealed the link between genetic association testing and hypothesis testing of selection differences. It therefore supplies a solution for hypothesis testing of selection differences. This method was applied to a genome-wide data analysis of Han and Tibetan populations. The results confirmed that both the EPAS1 and EGLN1 genes are under statistically different selection in Han and Tibetan populations. We further estimated differences in the selection coefficients for genetic variants involved in melanin formation and determined their confidence intervals between continental population groups. Application of the method to empirical data demonstrated the outstanding capability of this novel approach for testing and quantifying differences in natural selection. © 2015 He et al.; Published by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press.

  3. Self-ion Irradiation Damage of F/M and ODS steels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Suk Hoon; Chun, Young-Bum; Noh, Sanghoon; Jang, Jinsung; Kim, Tae Kyu

    2014-01-01

    Oxide dispersion strengthened (ODS) ferritic steels are potential high-temperature materials that are stabilized by dispersed particles at elevated temperatures. These dispersed particles improve the tensile strength and creep rupture strength, they are expected to increase the operation temperature up to approximately 650 .deg. C and also enhance the energy efficiency of the fusion reactor. Some reports described that the nano-clusters are strongly resistant to coarsening by annealing up to 1000 .deg. C, and nanoclusters do not change after ion irradiation up to 0.7 dpa at 300 .deg. C. ODS steels will be inevitably exposed to neutron irradiation condition; the irradiation damages, creep and swelling are always great concern. The dispersed oxide particles are believed to determine the performance of the steel, even the radiation resistance. In this study, F/M and ODS model alloys of Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) were irradiated by Fe 3+ self-ion to emulate the neutron irradiation effect. In this study, Fe 3+ self-ion irradiation is used as means of introducing radiation damage in F/M steel and ODS steel. The ion accelerator named DuET (in Kyoto University, Japan) was used for irradiation of Fe 3+ ion by 6.4 MeV at 300 .deg. C. The maximum damage rate in F/M and ODS steels were estimated roughly 6 dpa. After radiation, point or line defects were dominantly observed in F/M steel, on the other hands, small circular cavities were typically observed in ODS steel. Nanoindentation is a useful tool to determine the irradiationinduced hardness change in the damage layer of ionirradiated iron base alloys

  4. Estimation of the collective dose in the Portuguese population due to medical procedures in 2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teles, Pedro; Vaz, Pedro; Sousa, M. Carmen de; Paulo, Graciano; Santos, Joana; Pascoal, Ana; Cardoso, Gabriela; Santos, Ana Isabel; Lanca, Isabel; Matela, Nuno; Janeiro, Luis; Sousa, Patrick; Carvoeiras, Pedro; Parafita, Rui; Simaozinho, Paula

    2013-01-01

    In a wide range of medical fields, technological advancements have led to an increase in the average collective dose in national populations worldwide. Periodic estimations of the average collective population dose due to medical exposure is, therefore of utmost importance, and is now mandatory in countries within the European Union (article 12 of EURATOM directive 97/ 43). Presented in this work is a report on the estimation of the collective dose in the Portuguese population due to nuclear medicine diagnostic procedures and the Top 20 diagnostic radiology examinations, which represent the 20 exams that contribute the most to the total collective dose in diagnostic radiology and interventional procedures in Europe. This work involved the collaboration of a multidisciplinary taskforce comprising representatives of all major Portuguese stakeholders (universities, research institutions, public and private health care providers, administrative services of the National Healthcare System, scientific and professional associations and private service providers). This allowed us to gather a comprehensive amount of data necessary for a robust estimation of the collective effective dose to the Portuguese population. The methodology used for data collection and dose estimation was based on European Commission recommendations, as this work was performed in the framework of the European wide Dose Datamed II project. This is the first study estimating the collective dose for the population in Portugal, considering such a wide national coverage and range of procedures and consisting of important baseline reference data. The taskforce intends to continue developing periodic collective dose estimations in the future. The estimated annual average effective dose for the Portuguese population was of 0.080±0.017 mSv caput -1 for nuclear medicine exams and of 0.96±0.68 mSv caput -1 for the Top 20 diagnostic radiology exams. (authors)

  5. The Bgo-Od Experiment at Elsa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bantes, B.; Bayadilov, D.; Beck, R.; Becker, M.; Bella, A.; Bieling, J.; Böse, S.; Braglieri, A.; Brinkmann, K.; Burdeynyi, D.; Curciarello, F.; de Leo, V.; di Salvo, R.; Dutz, H.; Elsner, D.; Fantini, A.; Frese, T.; Friedrick, S.; Frommberger, F.; Ganenko, V.; Gervino, G.; Ghio, F.; Giardina, G.; Girolami, B.; Glazier, D.; Goertz, S.; Gridnev, A.; Gutz, E.; Hammann, D.; Hannappel, J.; Hillert, W.; Ignatov, A.; Jahn, O.; Jahn, R.; Joosten, R.; Jude, T. C.; Klein, F.; Koop, K.; Krusche, B.; Lapik, A.; Levi Sandri, P.; Lopatin, I.; Mandaglio, G.; Messi, F.; Messi, R.; Metag, V.; Moricciani, D.; Nanova, M.; Nedorezov, V.; Noviskiy, D.; Pedroni, P.; Romaniuk, M.; Rostomyan, T.; Schaerf, C.; Schmieden, H.; Sumachev, V.; Tarakonov, V.; Vegna, V.; Vlasov, P.; Walther, D.; Watts, D.; Zaunick, H.-G.; Zimmermann, T.

    2014-01-01

    Meson photoproduction is a key tool for the experimental investigation of the nucleon excitation spectrum. To disentangle the specific couplings of resonances, in addition to the rather well measured pion and eta photoproduction channels it is mandatory to obtain information on channels involving strange and vector mesons and higher mass pseudoscalar mesons, and the associated multi-particle final states with both charged and neutral particles. In this respect, the new BGO-OD experiment at the ELSA accelerator of the University of Bonn's Physikalisches Institut provides unique instrumentation. We describe the experiment, present its status and the initial program of measurements.

  6. Behaviour of ODS Steels in Cyclic Loading

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kuběna, Ivo; Kruml, Tomáš; Polák, Jaroslav

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 69, č. 2 (2016), s. 309-313 ISSN 0972-2815. [International Conference on CREEP , FATIGUE and CREEP -FATIGUE INTERACTION /7./. Kalpakkam, 19.01.2016-22.01.2016] R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0068; GA ČR GA15-08826S Institutional support: RVO:68081723 Keywords : ODS steels * low cycle fatigue * small fatigue crack * microstructure Subject RIV: JL - Materials Fatigue, Friction Mechanics Impact factor: 0.533, year: 2016 http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12666-015-0814-3

  7. Population estimate of Chinese mystery snail (Bellamya chinensis) in a Nebraska reservoir

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaine, Noelle M.; Allen, Craig R.; Fricke, Kent A.; Haak, Danielle M.; Hellman, Michelle L.; Kill, Robert A.; Nemec, Kristine T.; Pope, Kevin L.; Smeenk, Nicholas A.; Stephen, Bruce J.; Uden, Daniel R.; Unstad, Kody M.; VanderHam, Ashley E.

    2012-01-01

    The Chinese mystery snail (Bellamya chinensis) is an aquatic invasive species in North America. Little is known regarding this species' impacts on freshwater ecosystems. It is be lieved that population densities can be high, yet no population estimates have been reported. We utilized a mark-recapture approach to generate a population estimate for Chinese mystery snail in Wild Plum Lake, a 6.47-ha reservoir in southeast Nebraska. We calculated, using bias-adjusted Lincoln-Petersen estimation, that there were approximately 664 adult snails within a 127 m2 transect (5.2 snails/m2). If this density was consistent throughout the littoral zone (Chinese mystery snail wet biomass is estimated to be 3,119 kg (643 kg/ha). If this density is confined to the depth sampled in this study (1.46 m), then the adult population is estimated to be 169,400 snails, and wet biomass is estimated to be 2,084 kg (643 kg/ha). Additional research is warranted to further test the utility of mark-recapture methods for aquatic snails and to better understand Chinese mystery snail distributions within reservoirs.

  8. Estimation of walrus populations on sea ice with infrared imagery and aerial photography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Udevitz, M.S.; Burn, D.M.; Webber, M.A.

    2008-01-01

    Population sizes of ice-associated pinnipeds have often been estimated with visual or photographic aerial surveys, but these methods require relatively slow speeds and low altitudes, limiting the area they can cover. Recent developments in infrared imagery and its integration with digital photography could allow substantially larger areas to be surveyed and more accurate enumeration of individuals, thereby solving major problems with previous survey methods. We conducted a trial survey in April 2003 to estimate the number of Pacific walruses (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) hauled out on sea ice around St. Lawrence Island, Alaska. The survey used high altitude infrared imagery to detect groups of walruses on strip transects. Low altitude digital photography was used to determine the number of walruses in a sample of detected groups and calibrate the infrared imagery for estimating the total number of walruses. We propose a survey design incorporating this approach with satellite radio telemetry to estimate the proportion of the population in the water and additional low-level flights to estimate the proportion of the hauled-out population in groups too small to be detected in the infrared imagery. We believe that this approach offers the potential for obtaining reliable population estimates for walruses and other ice-associated pinnipeds. ?? 2007 by the Society for Marine Mammalogy.

  9. Fine-Scale Population Estimation by 3D Reconstruction of Urban Residential Buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Shixin; Tian, Ye; Zhou, Yi; Liu, Wenliang; Lin, Chenxi

    2016-01-01

    Fine-scale population estimation is essential in emergency response and epidemiological applications as well as urban planning and management. However, representing populations in heterogeneous urban regions with a finer resolution is a challenge. This study aims to obtain fine-scale population distribution based on 3D reconstruction of urban residential buildings with morphological operations using optical high-resolution (HR) images from the Chinese No. 3 Resources Satellite (ZY-3). Specifically, the research area was first divided into three categories when dasymetric mapping was taken into consideration. The results demonstrate that the morphological building index (MBI) yielded better results than built-up presence index (PanTex) in building detection, and the morphological shadow index (MSI) outperformed color invariant indices (CIIT) in shadow extraction and height retrieval. Building extraction and height retrieval were then combined to reconstruct 3D models and to estimate population. Final results show that this approach is effective in fine-scale population estimation, with a mean relative error of 16.46% and an overall Relative Total Absolute Error (RATE) of 0.158. This study gives significant insights into fine-scale population estimation in complicated urban landscapes, when detailed 3D information of buildings is unavailable. PMID:27775670

  10. Fine-Scale Population Estimation by 3D Reconstruction of Urban Residential Buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shixin Wang

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Fine-scale population estimation is essential in emergency response and epidemiological applications as well as urban planning and management. However, representing populations in heterogeneous urban regions with a finer resolution is a challenge. This study aims to obtain fine-scale population distribution based on 3D reconstruction of urban residential buildings with morphological operations using optical high-resolution (HR images from the Chinese No. 3 Resources Satellite (ZY-3. Specifically, the research area was first divided into three categories when dasymetric mapping was taken into consideration. The results demonstrate that the morphological building index (MBI yielded better results than built-up presence index (PanTex in building detection, and the morphological shadow index (MSI outperformed color invariant indices (CIIT in shadow extraction and height retrieval. Building extraction and height retrieval were then combined to reconstruct 3D models and to estimate population. Final results show that this approach is effective in fine-scale population estimation, with a mean relative error of 16.46% and an overall Relative Total Absolute Error (RATE of 0.158. This study gives significant insights into fine-scale population estimation in complicated urban landscapes, when detailed 3D information of buildings is unavailable.

  11. Estimation of the Radon-induced Dose for Russia's Population: Methods and Results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marenny, A.M.; Savkin, M.N.; Shinkarev, S.M.

    2000-01-01

    A model is proposed for inferring the radon-induced annual average collective and personal doses, as well as the dose distribution of the population, all over Russia from selective radon monitoring in some regions of Russia. The model assumptions and the selective radon monitoring results that underlie the numerical estimates obtained for different population groups are presented. The current estimate of the collective radon-induced dose received by the population of Russia (148,100,000 as of 1996) is about 130,000 man Sv, of which 55,000 man Sv is for the rural population (27% of the total population) and 75,000 man Sv for the urban population (73% of the total). The average radon-induced personal dose in Russia is estimated to be about 0.87 mSv. About 1,000,000 people receive annual doses above 10 mSv, including some 200,000 people who receive doses above 20 mSv annually. The ways of making the current estimates more accurate are outlined. (author)

  12. Estimation of Finite Population Ratio When Other Auxiliary Variables are Available in the Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jehad Al-Jararha

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The estimation of the population total $t_y,$ by using one or moreauxiliary variables, and the population ratio $\\theta_{xy}=t_y/t_x,$$t_x$ is the population total for the auxiliary variable $X$, for afinite population are heavily discussed in the literature. In thispaper, the idea of estimation the finite population ratio$\\theta_{xy}$ is extended to use the availability of auxiliaryvariable $Z$ in the study, such auxiliary variable  is not used inthe definition of the population ratio. This idea may be  supported by the fact that the variable $Z$  is highly correlated with the interest variable $Y$ than the correlation between the variables $X$ and $Y.$ The availability of such auxiliary variable can be used to improve the precision of the estimation of the population ratio.  To our knowledge, this idea is not discussed in the literature.  The bias, variance and the mean squares error  are given for our approach. Simulation from real data set,  the empirical relative bias and  the empirical relative mean squares error are computed for our approach and different estimators proposed in the literature  for estimating the population ratio $\\theta_{xy}.$ Analytically and the simulation results show that, by suitable choices, our approach gives negligible bias and has less mean squares error.  

  13. Genetic variation in Danish populations of Erysiphe graminis f.sp. hordei: estimation of gene diversity and effective population size using RFLP data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Damgaard, C.; Giese, Nanna Henriette

    1996-01-01

    Genetic variation of the barley powdery mildew fungus (Erysiphe graminis f.sp. hordei) was estimated in three Danish local populations. Genetic variation was estimated from the variation amongst clones of Egh, and was therefore an estimate of the maximum genetic variation in the local populations...

  14. Multi-locus estimates of population structure and migration in a fence lizard hybrid zone.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam D Leaché

    Full Text Available A hybrid zone between two species of lizards in the genus Sceloporus (S. cowlesi and S. tristichus on the Mogollon Rim in Arizona provides a unique opportunity to study the processes of lineage divergence and merging. This hybrid zone involves complex interactions between 2 morphologically and ecologically divergent subspecies, 3 chromosomal groups, and 4 mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA clades. The spatial patterns of divergence between morphology, chromosomes and mtDNA are discordant, and determining which of these character types (if any reflects the underlying population-level lineages that are of interest has remained impeded by character conflict. The focus of this study is to estimate the number of populations interacting in the hybrid zone using multi-locus nuclear data, and to then estimate the migration rates and divergence time between the inferred populations. Multi-locus estimates of population structure and gene flow were obtained from 12 anonymous nuclear loci sequenced for 93 specimens of Sceloporus. Population structure estimates support two populations, and this result is robust to changes to the prior probability distribution used in the Bayesian analysis and the use of spatially-explicit or non-spatial models. A coalescent analysis of population divergence suggests that gene flow is high between the two populations, and that the timing of divergence is restricted to the Pleistocene. The hybrid zone is more accurately described as involving two populations belonging to S. tristichus, and the presence of S. cowlesi mtDNA haplotypes in the hybrid zone is an anomaly resulting from mitochondrial introgression.

  15. The effect of organisational context on organisational development (OD interventions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanjana Brijball Parumasur

    2012-05-01

    Research purpose: This article examines national and international OD practices. It assesses the effect of diverse cultures and cultural values for determining the effectiveness of OD interventions. Motivation for the study: Most organisational change and development programmes fail and only a few result in increased competitiveness, improvements and profitability. This emphasises the need for change interventions to give sufficient attention to leadership, cultures, managing change and adopting context-based OD interventions. Research design, approach and method: This article is a literature review of the current trends and research in the area of OD interventions. It synthesises the influence that cultures and cultural orientations have on determining which OD intervention strategies organisations should adopt in different cultures. Main findings: The analysis emphasises how important it is to achieve congruence between the OD interventions organisations select and their local cultures. Practical/managerial implications: It is important to note the evolving nature of the political and economic climates that influence national cultures and that they emphasise that interventions that reflect OD values, which are tailor-made and shaped to the needs of local cultures, are necessary. Contribution/value-add: This study links various OD interventions to Hofstede’s dimensions for differentiating national cultures. It provides guidelines for aligning the practices and techniques of OD to the values and cultures of the organisations and societies in which they are to be implemented.

  16. Validity and feasibility of a satellite imagery-based method for rapid estimation of displaced populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Checchi, Francesco; Stewart, Barclay T; Palmer, Jennifer J; Grundy, Chris

    2013-01-23

    Estimating the size of forcibly displaced populations is key to documenting their plight and allocating sufficient resources to their assistance, but is often not done, particularly during the acute phase of displacement, due to methodological challenges and inaccessibility. In this study, we explored the potential use of very high resolution satellite imagery to remotely estimate forcibly displaced populations. Our method consisted of multiplying (i) manual counts of assumed residential structures on a satellite image and (ii) estimates of the mean number of people per structure (structure occupancy) obtained from publicly available reports. We computed population estimates for 11 sites in Bangladesh, Chad, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Haiti, Kenya and Mozambique (six refugee camps, three internally displaced persons' camps and two urban neighbourhoods with a mixture of residents and displaced) ranging in population from 1,969 to 90,547, and compared these to "gold standard" reference population figures from census or other robust methods. Structure counts by independent analysts were reasonably consistent. Between one and 11 occupancy reports were available per site and most of these reported people per household rather than per structure. The imagery-based method had a precision relative to reference population figures of layout. For each site, estimates were produced in 2-5 working person-days. In settings with clearly distinguishable individual structures, the remote, imagery-based method had reasonable accuracy for the purposes of rapid estimation, was simple and quick to implement, and would likely perform better in more current application. However, it may have insurmountable limitations in settings featuring connected buildings or shelters, a complex pattern of roofs and multi-level buildings. Based on these results, we discuss possible ways forward for the method's development.

  17. Activation volume of martensitic ODS steel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, D. W.; Noh, S.; Kim, T. K. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    Apparent activation volume as a function of temperature is 86b{sup 3}-42b{sup 3}. Activation volume decreases with increasing temperature. Activation volume changes scarcely with decreasing strain rate. Strain rate sensitivity increases with increasing temperature and decreasing strain rate. Nano-sized oxide dispersion strengthened (ODS) martensitic steel has a high strength, low thermal expansion coefficient, high thermal conductivity, and a good swelling resistance. Martensitic ODS steel is a candidate material for fuel cladding of sodium cooled fast breeder reactor (SFR). The plastic flow stress is determined through the interaction of dislocations with the obstacles encountered inside lattice. Dislocation movement through the lattice or past an obstacle requires surmounting of the energy barrier by a combination of applied stress and thermal activation. The plastic deformation of materials is a thermally activated process dependent upon time, temperature, and strain rate. Characterization of the rate controlling mechanism for plastic deformation due to dislocation motion in crystalline materials is done by the assessment of activation volume based on thermal activation analysis.

  18. Estimation of small area populations using remote sensing and other approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Honea, R.B.; Shumpert, B.L.; Edwards, R.G.; Margle, S.M.; Coleman, P.R.; Smyre, J.L.; Rush, R.M.; Durfee, R.C.

    1983-01-01

    This paper documents the results of an assessment of a variety of techniques for estimating residential population for a five-mile radial grid around a nuclear power plant. The study area surrounded the proposed Limerick Nuclear Power Plant located near Philadelphia, PA. Techniques evaluated ranged from the use of air photos to infer population from housing distributions to the use of Landsat data to characterize probable residential population around the plant site. Although the techniques involving the use of Landsat data provided good results, a simple proportional area allocation method and the current procedure used by Oak Ridge National Laboratory for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission were among the best techniques. Further research using other sites and better resolution satellite data is recommended to investigate the possible refinement of population estimates using remote sensing media. 34 references, 10 figures, 2 tables

  19. Population Estimates for Chum Salmon Spawning in the Mainstem Columbia River, 2002 Technical Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rawding, Dan; Hillson, Todd D. (Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, Olympia, WA)

    2003-11-15

    Accurate and precise population estimates of chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) spawning in the mainstem Columbia River are needed to provide a basis for informed water allocation decisions, to determine the status of chum salmon listed under the Endangered Species Act, and to evaluate the contribution of the Duncan Creek re-introduction program to mainstem spawners. Currently, mark-recapture experiments using the Jolly-Seber model provide the only framework for this type of estimation. In 2002, a study was initiated to estimate mainstem Columbia River chum salmon populations using seining data collected while capturing broodstock as part of the Duncan Creek re-introduction. The five assumptions of the Jolly-Seber model were examined using hypothesis testing within a statistical framework, including goodness of fit tests and secondary experiments. We used POPAN 6, an integrated computer system for the analysis of capture-recapture data, to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of standard model parameters, derived estimates, and their precision. A more parsimonious final model was selected using Akaike Information Criteria. Final chum salmon escapement estimates and (standard error) from seining data for the Ives Island, Multnomah, and I-205 sites are 3,179 (150), 1,269 (216), and 3,468 (180), respectively. The Ives Island estimate is likely lower than the total escapement because only the largest two of four spawning sites were sampled. The accuracy and precision of these estimates would improve if seining was conducted twice per week instead of weekly, and by incorporating carcass recoveries into the analysis. Population estimates derived from seining mark-recapture data were compared to those obtained using the current mainstem Columbia River salmon escapement methodologies. The Jolly-Seber population estimate from carcass tagging in the Ives Island area was 4,232 adults with a standard error of 79. This population estimate appears reasonable and precise but batch

  20. Estimation of age structure of fish populations from length-frequency data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumar, K.D.; Adams, S.M.

    1977-01-01

    A probability model is presented to determine the age structure of a fish population from length-frequency data. It is shown that when the age-length key is available, maximum-likelihood estimates of the age structure can be obtained. When the key is not available, approximate estimates of the age structure can be obtained. The model is used for determination of the age structure of populations of channel catfish and white crappie. Practical applications of the model to impact assessment are discussed

  1. Estimating population extinction thresholds with categorical classification trees for Louisiana black bears.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laufenberg, Jared S; Clark, Joseph D; Chandler, Richard B

    2018-01-01

    Monitoring vulnerable species is critical for their conservation. Thresholds or tipping points are commonly used to indicate when populations become vulnerable to extinction and to trigger changes in conservation actions. However, quantitative methods to determine such thresholds have not been well explored. The Louisiana black bear (Ursus americanus luteolus) was removed from the list of threatened and endangered species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act in 2016 and our objectives were to determine the most appropriate parameters and thresholds for monitoring and management action. Capture mark recapture (CMR) data from 2006 to 2012 were used to estimate population parameters and variances. We used stochastic population simulations and conditional classification trees to identify demographic rates for monitoring that would be most indicative of heighted extinction risk. We then identified thresholds that would be reliable predictors of population viability. Conditional classification trees indicated that annual apparent survival rates for adult females averaged over 5 years ([Formula: see text]) was the best predictor of population persistence. Specifically, population persistence was estimated to be ≥95% over 100 years when [Formula: see text], suggesting that this statistic can be used as threshold to trigger management intervention. Our evaluation produced monitoring protocols that reliably predicted population persistence and was cost-effective. We conclude that population projections and conditional classification trees can be valuable tools for identifying extinction thresholds used in monitoring programs.

  2. Estimating population extinction thresholds with categorical classification trees for Louisiana black bears.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jared S Laufenberg

    Full Text Available Monitoring vulnerable species is critical for their conservation. Thresholds or tipping points are commonly used to indicate when populations become vulnerable to extinction and to trigger changes in conservation actions. However, quantitative methods to determine such thresholds have not been well explored. The Louisiana black bear (Ursus americanus luteolus was removed from the list of threatened and endangered species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act in 2016 and our objectives were to determine the most appropriate parameters and thresholds for monitoring and management action. Capture mark recapture (CMR data from 2006 to 2012 were used to estimate population parameters and variances. We used stochastic population simulations and conditional classification trees to identify demographic rates for monitoring that would be most indicative of heighted extinction risk. We then identified thresholds that would be reliable predictors of population viability. Conditional classification trees indicated that annual apparent survival rates for adult females averaged over 5 years ([Formula: see text] was the best predictor of population persistence. Specifically, population persistence was estimated to be ≥95% over 100 years when [Formula: see text], suggesting that this statistic can be used as threshold to trigger management intervention. Our evaluation produced monitoring protocols that reliably predicted population persistence and was cost-effective. We conclude that population projections and conditional classification trees can be valuable tools for identifying extinction thresholds used in monitoring programs.

  3. Estimating population extinction thresholds with categorical classification trees for Louisiana black bears

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laufenberg, Jared S.; Clark, Joseph D.; Chandler, Richard B.

    2018-01-01

    Monitoring vulnerable species is critical for their conservation. Thresholds or tipping points are commonly used to indicate when populations become vulnerable to extinction and to trigger changes in conservation actions. However, quantitative methods to determine such thresholds have not been well explored. The Louisiana black bear (Ursus americanus luteolus) was removed from the list of threatened and endangered species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act in 2016 and our objectives were to determine the most appropriate parameters and thresholds for monitoring and management action. Capture mark recapture (CMR) data from 2006 to 2012 were used to estimate population parameters and variances. We used stochastic population simulations and conditional classification trees to identify demographic rates for monitoring that would be most indicative of heighted extinction risk. We then identified thresholds that would be reliable predictors of population viability. Conditional classification trees indicated that annual apparent survival rates for adult females averaged over 5 years () was the best predictor of population persistence. Specifically, population persistence was estimated to be ≥95% over 100 years when , suggesting that this statistic can be used as threshold to trigger management intervention. Our evaluation produced monitoring protocols that reliably predicted population persistence and was cost-effective. We conclude that population projections and conditional classification trees can be valuable tools for identifying extinction thresholds used in monitoring programs.

  4. The influence of population characteristics on variation in general practice based morbidity estimations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    van den Dungen C

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background General practice based registration networks (GPRNs provide information on morbidity rates in the population. Morbidity rate estimates from different GPRNs, however, reveal considerable, unexplained differences. We studied the range and variation in morbidity estimates, as well as the extent to which the differences in morbidity rates between general practices and networks change if socio-demographic characteristics of the listed patient populations are taken into account. Methods The variation in incidence and prevalence rates of thirteen diseases among six Dutch GPRNs and the influence of age, gender, socio economic status (SES, urbanization level, and ethnicity are analyzed using multilevel logistic regression analysis. Results are expressed in median odds ratios (MOR. Results We observed large differences in morbidity rate estimates both on the level of general practices as on the level of networks. The differences in SES, urbanization level and ethnicity distribution among the networks' practice populations are substantial. The variation in morbidity rate estimates among networks did not decrease after adjusting for these socio-demographic characteristics. Conclusion Socio-demographic characteristics of populations do not explain the differences in morbidity estimations among GPRNs.

  5. Uncertainty in population growth rates: determining confidence intervals from point estimates of parameters.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eleanor S Devenish Nelson

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Demographic models are widely used in conservation and management, and their parameterisation often relies on data collected for other purposes. When underlying data lack clear indications of associated uncertainty, modellers often fail to account for that uncertainty in model outputs, such as estimates of population growth. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We applied a likelihood approach to infer uncertainty retrospectively from point estimates of vital rates. Combining this with resampling techniques and projection modelling, we show that confidence intervals for population growth estimates are easy to derive. We used similar techniques to examine the effects of sample size on uncertainty. Our approach is illustrated using data on the red fox, Vulpes vulpes, a predator of ecological and cultural importance, and the most widespread extant terrestrial mammal. We show that uncertainty surrounding estimated population growth rates can be high, even for relatively well-studied populations. Halving that uncertainty typically requires a quadrupling of sampling effort. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results compel caution when comparing demographic trends between populations without accounting for uncertainty. Our methods will be widely applicable to demographic studies of many species.

  6. Estimating population size in wastewater-based epidemiology. Valencia metropolitan area as a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rico, María; Andrés-Costa, María Jesús; Picó, Yolanda

    2017-02-05

    Wastewater can provide a wealth of epidemiologic data on common drugs consumed and on health and nutritional problems based on the biomarkers excreted into community sewage systems. One of the biggest uncertainties of these studies is the estimation of the number of inhabitants served by the treatment plants. Twelve human urine biomarkers -5-hydroxyindoleacetic acid (5-HIAA), acesulfame, atenolol, caffeine, carbamazepine, codeine, cotinine, creatinine, hydrochlorothiazide (HCTZ), naproxen, salicylic acid (SA) and hydroxycotinine (OHCOT)- were determined by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) to estimate population size. The results reveal that populations calculated from cotinine, 5-HIAA and caffeine are commonly in agreement with those calculated by the hydrochemical parameters. Creatinine is too unstable to be applicable. HCTZ, naproxen, codeine, OHCOT and carbamazepine, under or overestimate the population compared to the hydrochemical population estimates but showed constant results through the weekdays. The consumption of cannabis, cocaine, heroin and bufotenine in Valencia was estimated for a week using different population calculations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. A Systematic Evaluation of Ultrasound-based Fetal Weight Estimation Models on Indian Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sujitkumar S. Hiwale

    2017-12-01

    Conclusion: We found that the existing fetal weight estimation models have high systematic and random errors on Indian population, with a general tendency of overestimation of fetal weight in the LBW category and underestimation in the HBW category. We also observed that these models have a limited ability to predict babies at a risk of either low or high birth weight. It is recommended that the clinicians should consider all these factors, while interpreting estimated weight given by the existing models.

  8. An emperor penguin population estimate: the first global, synoptic survey of a species from space.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fretwell, Peter T; Larue, Michelle A; Morin, Paul; Kooyman, Gerald L; Wienecke, Barbara; Ratcliffe, Norman; Fox, Adrian J; Fleming, Andrew H; Porter, Claire; Trathan, Phil N

    2012-01-01

    Our aim was to estimate the population of emperor penguins (Aptenodytes fosteri) using a single synoptic survey. We examined the whole continental coastline of Antarctica using a combination of medium resolution and Very High Resolution (VHR) satellite imagery to identify emperor penguin colony locations. Where colonies were identified, VHR imagery was obtained in the 2009 breeding season. The remotely-sensed images were then analysed using a supervised classification method to separate penguins from snow, shadow and guano. Actual counts of penguins from eleven ground truthing sites were used to convert these classified areas into numbers of penguins using a robust regression algorithm.We found four new colonies and confirmed the location of three previously suspected sites giving a total number of emperor penguin breeding colonies of 46. We estimated the breeding population of emperor penguins at each colony during 2009 and provide a population estimate of ~238,000 breeding pairs (compared with the last previously published count of 135,000-175,000 pairs). Based on published values of the relationship between breeders and non-breeders, this translates to a total population of ~595,000 adult birds.There is a growing consensus in the literature that global and regional emperor penguin populations will be affected by changing climate, a driver thought to be critical to their future survival. However, a complete understanding is severely limited by the lack of detailed knowledge about much of their ecology, and importantly a poor understanding of their total breeding population. To address the second of these issues, our work now provides a comprehensive estimate of the total breeding population that can be used in future population models and will provide a baseline for long-term research.

  9. Estimation of demographic parameters in a tiger population from long-term camera trap data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karanth, K. Ullas; Nichols, James D.; O'Connell, Allan F.; Nichols, James D.; Karanth, K. Ullas

    2011-01-01

    Chapter 7 (Karanth et al.) illustrated the use of camera trapping in combination with closed population capture–recapture (CR) models to estimate densities of tigers Panthera tigris. Such estimates can be very useful for investigating variation across space for a particular species (e.g., Karanth et al. 2004) or variation among species at a specific location. In addition, estimates of density continued at the same site(s) over multiple years are very useful for understanding and managing populations of large carnivores. Such multi-year studies can yield estimates of rates of change in abundance. Additionally, because the fates of marked individuals are tracked through time, biologists can delve deeper into factors driving changes in abundance such as rates of survival, recruitment and movement (Williams et al. 2002). Fortunately, modern CR approaches permit the modeling of populations that change between sampling occasions as a result of births, deaths, immigration and emigration (Pollock et al. 1990; Nichols 1992). Some of these early “open population” models focused on estimation of survival rates and, to a lesser extent, abundance, but more recent models permit estimation of recruitment and movement rates as well.

  10. Sex estimation from the scapula in a contemporary Thai population: Applications for forensic anthropology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peckmann, Tanya R; Scott, Shelby; Meek, Susan; Mahakkanukrauh, Pasuk

    2017-07-01

    The impact of climate change is estimated to be particularly severe in Thailand. Overall, the country faces an increase in surface temperatures, severe storms and floods, and a possible increase in the number of mass disasters in the region. It is extremely important that forensic scientists have access to sex estimation methods developed for use on a Thai population. The goal of this project is to evaluate the accuracy of sex estimation discriminant functions, created using contemporary Mexican and Greek populations, when applied to a contemporary Thai sample. The length of the glenoid cavity (LGC) and breadth of the glenoid cavity (BGC) were measured. The sample included 191 individuals (95 males and 96 females) with age ranges from 19 to 96years old. Overall, when the Mexican and Greek discriminant functions were applied to the Thai sample they showed higher accuracy rates for sexing female scapulae (83% to 99%) than for sexing male scapulae (53% to 92%). Size comparisons were made to Chilean, Mexican, Guatemalan, White American, and Greek populations. Overall, in males and females of the Thai sample, the scapulae were smaller than in the Chilean, Mexican, White American, and Greek populations. However, the male and female Thai scapulae were larger than in the Guatemalan sample. Population-specific discriminant functions were created for the Thai population with an overall sex classification accuracy rate of 83% to 88%. Copyright © 2017 The Chartered Society of Forensic Sciences. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Effects of insecticide exposure on movement and population size estimates of predatory ground beetles (Coleoptera: Carabidae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasifka, Jarrad R; Lopez, Miriam D; Hellmich, Richard L; Prasifka, Patricia L

    2008-01-01

    Estimates of arthropod population size may paradoxically increase following insecticide applications. Research with ground beetles (Coleoptera: Carabidae) suggests that such unusual results reflect increased arthropod movement and capture in traps rather than real changes in population size. However, it is unclear whether direct (hyperactivity) or indirect (prey-mediated) mechanisms produce increased movement. Video tracking of Scarites quadriceps Chaudior indicated that brief exposure to lambda-cyhalothrin or tefluthrin increased total distance moved, maximum velocity and percentage of time moving. Repeated measurements on individual beetles indicated that movement decreased 240 min after initial lambda-cyhalothrin exposure, but increased again following a second exposure, suggesting hyperactivity could lead to increased trap captures in the field. Two field experiments in which ground beetles were collected after lambda-cyhalothrin or permethrin application attempted to detect increases in population size estimates as a result of hyperactivity. Field trials used mark-release-recapture methods in small plots and natural carabid populations in larger plots, but found no significant short-term (<6 day) increases in beetle trap captures. The disagreement between laboratory and field results suggests mechanisms other than hyperactivity may better explain unusual changes in population size estimates. When traps are used as a primary sampling tool, unexpected population-level effects should be interpreted carefully or with additional data less influenced by arthropod activity.

  12. Quantitative estimation of the cost of parasitic castration in a Helisoma anceps population using a matrix population model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Negovetich, N J; Esch, G W

    2008-10-01

    Larval trematodes frequently castrate their snail intermediate hosts. When castrated, the snails do not contribute offspring to the population, yet they persist and compete with the uninfected individuals for the available food resources. Parasitic castration should reduce the population growth rate lambda, but the magnitude of this decrease is unknown. The present study attempted to quantify the cost of parasitic castration at the level of the population by mathematically modeling the population of the planorbid snail Helisoma anceps in Charlie's Pond, North Carolina. Analysis of the model identified the life-history trait that most affects lambda, and the degree to which parasitic castration can lower lambda. A period matrix product model was constructed with estimates of fecundity, survival, growth rates, and infection probabilities calculated in a previous study. Elasticity analysis was performed by increasing the values of the life-history traits by 10% and recording the percentage change in lambda. Parasitic castration resulted in a 40% decrease in lambda of H. anceps. Analysis of the model suggests that decreasing the size at maturity was more effective at reducing the cost of castration than increasing survival or growth rates of the snails. The current matrix model was the first to mathematically describe a snail population, and the predictions of the model are in agreement with published research.

  13. Integrated analysis for population estimation, management impact evaluation, and decision-making for a declining species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawford, Brian A.; Moore, Clinton; Norton, Terry M.; Maerz, John C.

    2018-01-01

    A challenge for making conservation decisions is predicting how wildlife populations respond to multiple, concurrent threats and potential management strategies, usually under substantial uncertainty. Integrated modeling approaches can improve estimation of demographic rates necessary for making predictions, even for rare or cryptic species with sparse data, but their use in management applications is limited. We developed integrated models for a population of diamondback terrapins (Malaclemys terrapin) impacted by road-associated threats to (i) jointly estimate demographic rates from two mark-recapture datasets, while directly estimating road mortality and the impact of management actions deployed during the study; and (ii) project the population using population viability analysis under simulated management strategies to inform decision-making. Without management, population extirpation was nearly certain due to demographic impacts of road mortality, predators, and vegetation. Installation of novel flashing signage increased survival of terrapins that crossed roads by 30%. Signage, along with small roadside barriers installed during the study, increased population persistence probability, but the population was still predicted to decline. Management strategies that included actions targeting multiple threats and demographic rates resulted in the highest persistence probability, and roadside barriers, which increased adult survival, were predicted to increase persistence more than other actions. Our results support earlier findings showing mitigation of multiple threats is likely required to increase the viability of declining populations. Our approach illustrates how integrated models may be adapted to use limited data efficiently, represent system complexity, evaluate impacts of threats and management actions, and provide decision-relevant information for conservation of at-risk populations.

  14. Estimation of mussel population response to hydrologic alteration in a southeastern U.S. stream

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, J.T.; Wisniewski, J.M.; Shea, C.P.; Rhett, Jackson C.

    2011-01-01

    The southeastern United States has experienced severe, recurrent drought, rapid human population growth, and increasing agricultural irrigation during recent decades, resulting in greater demand for the water resources. During the same time period, freshwater mussels (Unioniformes) in the region have experienced substantial population declines. Consequently, there is growing interest in determining how mussel population declines are related to activities associated with water resource development. Determining the causes of mussel population declines requires, in part, an understanding of the factors influencing mussel population dynamics. We developed Pradel reverse-time, tag-recapture models to estimate survival, recruitment, and population growth rates for three federally endangered mussel species in the Apalachicola- Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin, Georgia. The models were parameterized using mussel tag-recapture data collected over five consecutive years from Sawhatchee Creek, located in southwestern Georgia. Model estimates indicated that mussel survival was strongly and negatively related to high flows during the summer, whereas recruitment was strongly and positively related to flows during the spring and summer. Using these models, we simulated mussel population dynamics under historic (1940-1969) and current (1980-2008) flow regimes and under increasing levels of water use to evaluate the relative effectiveness of alternative minimum flow regulations. The simulations indicated that the probability of simulated mussel population extinction was at least 8 times greater under current hydrologic regimes. In addition, simulations of mussel extinction under varying levels of water use indicated that the relative risk of extinction increased with increased water use across a range of minimum flow regulations. The simulation results also indicated that our estimates of the effects of water use on mussel extinction were influenced by the assumptions about the

  15. 46 CFR 280.9 - Special rules for last year of ODS agreement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 8 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Special rules for last year of ODS agreement. 280.9... LINER OPERATORS § 280.9 Special rules for last year of ODS agreement. (a) Reduction in payment of ODS. ODS payable during the last year of any ODS agreement shall be reduced, as provided in paragraph (b...

  16. Asian elephants in China: estimating population size and evaluating habitat suitability.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Zhang

    Full Text Available We monitored the last remaining Asian elephant populations in China over the past decade. Using DNA tools and repeat genotyping, we estimated the population sizes from 654 dung samples collected from various areas. Combined with morphological individual identifications from over 6,300 elephant photographs taken in the wild, we estimated that the total Asian elephant population size in China is between 221 and 245. Population genetic structure and diversity were examined using a 556-bp fragment of mitochondrial DNA, and 24 unique haplotypes were detected from DNA analysis of 178 individuals. A phylogenetic analysis revealed two highly divergent clades of Asian elephants, α and β, present in Chinese populations. Four populations (Mengla, Shangyong, Mengyang, and Pu'Er carried mtDNA from the α clade, and only one population (Nangunhe carried mtDNA belonging to the β clade. Moreover, high genetic divergence was observed between the Nangunhe population and the other four populations; however, genetic diversity among the five populations was low, possibly due to limited gene flow because of habitat fragmentation. The expansion of rubber plantations, crop cultivation, and villages along rivers and roads had caused extensive degradation of natural forest in these areas. This had resulted in the loss and fragmentation of elephant habitats and had formed artificial barriers that inhibited elephant migration. Using Geographic Information System, Global Positioning System, and Remote Sensing technology, we found that the area occupied by rubber plantations, tea farms, and urban settlements had dramatically increased over the past 40 years, resulting in the loss and fragmentation of elephant habitats and forming artificial barriers that inhibit elephant migration. The restoration of ecological corridors to facilitate gene exchange among isolated elephant populations and the establishment of cross-boundary protected areas between China and Laos to secure

  17. Population estimation and trappability of the European badger (Meles meles: implications for tuberculosis management.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew W Byrne

    Full Text Available Estimates of population size and trappability inform vaccine efficacy modelling and are required for adaptive management during prolonged wildlife vaccination campaigns. We present an analysis of mark-recapture data from a badger vaccine (Bacille Calmette-Guérin study in Ireland. This study is the largest scale (755 km(2 mark-recapture study ever undertaken with this species. The study area was divided into three approximately equal-sized zones, each with similar survey and capture effort. A mean badger population size of 671 (SD: 76 was estimated using a closed-subpopulation model (CSpM based on data from capturing sessions of the entire area and was consistent with a separate multiplicative model. Minimum number alive estimates calculated from the same data were on average 49-51% smaller than the CSpM estimates, but these are considered severely negatively biased when trappability is low. Population densities derived from the CSpM estimates were 0.82-1.06 badgers km(-2, and broadly consistent with previous reports for an adjacent area. Mean trappability was estimated to be 34-35% per session across the population. By the fifth capture session, 79% of the adult badgers caught had been marked previously. Multivariable modelling suggested significant differences in badger trappability depending on zone, season and age-class. There were more putatively trap-wary badgers identified in the population than trap-happy badgers, but wariness was not related to individual's sex, zone or season of capture. Live-trapping efficacy can vary significantly amongst sites, seasons, age, or personality, hence monitoring of trappability is recommended as part of an adaptive management regime during large-scale wildlife vaccination programs to counter biases and to improve efficiencies.

  18. Striped bass ichthyoplankton abundance, mortality, and production estimation for the Potomac River population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Polgar, T.T.

    1977-01-01

    Methods are developed for estimating, from field survey data, the mortality rate and production for each successive ichthyoplanktonic stage. The abundance estimators used in the computation of these quantities are also derived. An age-dependent, ichthyoplankton population model is developed assuming either a uniform age distribution or an exponential age distribution within each stage. Striped bass egg and larval data from a 1974 ichthyoplankton survey in the Potomac River are used in model computations. The various model estimates are evaluated qualitatively, and the usefulness and limitations of the models are discussed

  19. Estimation of North American population doses resulting from radon-222 release in western United States: methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fields, D.E.; Travis, C.C.; Watson, A.P.; McDowell-Boyer, L.M.

    1979-12-01

    The report represents a compilation of computer codes used to estimate potential human exposures and inhalation doses due to unit releases of 222 Rn from uranium milling sites in western United States. The populations considered for potential exposure to risk from 222 Rn and associated daughters are the inhabitants of North America between 20 0 and 60 0 North latitude. The primary function of these codes is to integrate spatially atmospheric radionuclide concentrations with current population data for the geographic area under consideration. It is expected that these codes will be of assistance to anyone interested in assessing nuclear or nonnuclear population exposures over large geographic areas

  20. Estimation of kinship coefficient in structured and admixed populations using sparse sequencing data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinzhuang Dou

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge of biological relatedness between samples is important for many genetic studies. In large-scale human genetic association studies, the estimated kinship is used to remove cryptic relatedness, control for family structure, and estimate trait heritability. However, estimation of kinship is challenging for sparse sequencing data, such as those from off-target regions in target sequencing studies, where genotypes are largely uncertain or missing. Existing methods often assume accurate genotypes at a large number of markers across the genome. We show that these methods, without accounting for the genotype uncertainty in sparse sequencing data, can yield a strong downward bias in kinship estimation. We develop a computationally efficient method called SEEKIN to estimate kinship for both homogeneous samples and heterogeneous samples with population structure and admixture. Our method models genotype uncertainty and leverages linkage disequilibrium through imputation. We test SEEKIN on a whole exome sequencing dataset (WES of Singapore Chinese and Malays, which involves substantial population structure and admixture. We show that SEEKIN can accurately estimate kinship coefficient and classify genetic relatedness using off-target sequencing data down sampled to ~0.15X depth. In application to the full WES dataset without down sampling, SEEKIN also outperforms existing methods by properly analyzing shallow off-target data (~0.75X. Using both simulated and real phenotypes, we further illustrate how our method improves estimation of trait heritability for WES studies.

  1. Interpreting surveys to estimate the size of the monarch butterfly population: Pitfalls and prospects.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John M Pleasants

    Full Text Available To assess the change in the size of the eastern North American monarch butterfly summer population, studies have used long-term data sets of counts of adult butterflies or eggs per milkweed stem. Despite the observed decline in the monarch population as measured at overwintering sites in Mexico, these studies found no decline in summer counts in the Midwest, the core of the summer breeding range, leading to a suggestion that the cause of the monarch population decline is not the loss of Midwest agricultural milkweeds but increased mortality during the fall migration. Using these counts to estimate population size, however, does not account for the shift of monarch activity from agricultural fields to non-agricultural sites over the past 20 years, as a result of the loss of agricultural milkweeds due to the near-ubiquitous use of glyphosate herbicides. We present the counter-hypotheses that the proportion of the monarch population present in non-agricultural habitats, where counts are made, has increased and that counts reflect both population size and the proportion of the population observed. We use data on the historical change in the proportion of milkweeds, and thus monarch activity, in agricultural fields and non-agricultural habitats to show why using counts can produce misleading conclusions about population size. We then separate out the shifting proportion effect from the counts to estimate the population size and show that these corrected summer monarch counts show a decline over time and are correlated with the size of the overwintering population. In addition, we present evidence against the hypothesis of increased mortality during migration. The milkweed limitation hypothesis for monarch decline remains supported and conservation efforts focusing on adding milkweeds to the landscape in the summer breeding region have a sound scientific basis.

  2. Real-time estimation of small-area populations with human biomarkers in sewage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daughton, Christian G., E-mail: daughton.christian@epa.gov

    2012-01-01

    account for urine dilution), the biomarker with the most potential for the SCIM concept for real-time measurement of population was determined to be coprostanol - the major sterol produced by microbial reduction of cholesterol in the colon. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer New concept proposed for estimating small-area human populations. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Sewage Chemical-Information Mining (SCIM) measures biomarkers in sewage. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Real-time estimation of populations (accommodating influx and efflux) is possible. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Coprostanol is identified as a candidate biomarker for estimating population size. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Composite biomarkers having complementary properties could improve accuracy.

  3. Real-time estimation of small-area populations with human biomarkers in sewage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daughton, Christian G.

    2012-01-01

    urine dilution), the biomarker with the most potential for the SCIM concept for real-time measurement of population was determined to be coprostanol - the major sterol produced by microbial reduction of cholesterol in the colon. - Highlights: ► New concept proposed for estimating small-area human populations. ► Sewage Chemical-Information Mining (SCIM) measures biomarkers in sewage. ► Real-time estimation of populations (accommodating influx and efflux) is possible. ► Coprostanol is identified as a candidate biomarker for estimating population size. ► Composite biomarkers having complementary properties could improve accuracy.

  4. Probabilistic estimation of residential air exchange rates for population-based human exposure modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Residential air exchange rates (AERs) are a key determinant in the infiltration of ambient air pollution indoors. Population-based human exposure models using probabilistic approaches to estimate personal exposure to air pollutants have relied on input distributions from AER meas...

  5. Systematic sampling of discrete and continuous populations: sample selection and the choice of estimator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harry T. Valentine; David L. R. Affleck; Timothy G. Gregoire

    2009-01-01

    Systematic sampling is easy, efficient, and widely used, though it is not generally recognized that a systematic sample may be drawn from the population of interest with or without restrictions on randomization. The restrictions or the lack of them determine which estimators are unbiased, when using the sampling design as the basis for inference. We describe the...

  6. DNA-based population density estimation of black bear at northern ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The analysis of deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) microsatellites from hair samples obtained by the non-invasive method of traps was used to estimate the population density of black bears (Ursus americanus eremicus) in a mountain located at the county of Lampazos, Nuevo Leon, Mexico. The genotyping of bears was ...

  7. Improved sampling for airborne surveys to estimate wildlife population parameters in the African Savannah

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Khaemba, W.; Stein, A.

    2002-01-01

    Parameter estimates, obtained from airborne surveys of wildlife populations, often have large bias and large standard errors. Sampling error is one of the major causes of this imprecision and the occurrence of many animals in herds violates the common assumptions in traditional sampling designs like

  8. 77 FR 4000 - Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-26

    ... AGENCY: Office of the Secretary, Commerce. ACTION: General Notice Announcing Population Estimates... the District of Columbia. We are providing this notice in accordance with the 1976 amendment to the Federal Election Campaign Act, Title 2, United States Code, Section 441a(e). FOR FURTHER INFORMATION...

  9. 76 FR 37314 - Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-27

    ... AGENCY: Office of the Secretary, Commerce. ACTION: General Notice Announcing Population Estimates... the District of Columbia. We are providing this notice in accordance with the 1976 amendment to the Federal Election Campaign Act, Title 2, United States Code, Section 441a(e). It is important to note that...

  10. 75 FR 4343 - Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-27

    ... AGENCY: Office of the Secretary, Commerce. ACTION: General Notice Announcing Population Estimates... the District of Columbia. We are providing this notice in accordance with the 1976 amendment to the Federal Election Campaign Act, Title 2, United States Code, Section 441a(e). FOR FURTHER INFORMATION...

  11. Estimation of Sex From Index and Ring Finger Lengths in An Indigenous Population of Eastern India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sen, Jaydip; Ghosh, Ahana; Mondal, Nitish; Krishan, Kewal

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Forensic anthropology involves the identification of human remains for medico-legal purposes. Estimation of sex is an essential element of medico-legal investigations when identification of unknown dismembered remains is involved. Aim The present study was conducted with an aim to estimate sex from index and ring finger lengths of adult individuals belonging to an indigenous population of eastern India. Materials and Methods A total of 500 unrelated adult individuals (18-60 years) from the Rajbanshi population (males: 250, females: 250) took part in the study. A total of 400 (males: 200, 200 female) participants were randomly used to develop sex estimation models using Binary Logistic Regression Analysis (BLR). A separate group of 200 adults (18-60 years) from the Karbi tribal population (males 100, females 100) were included to validate the results obtained on the Rajbanshi population. The univarate and bivariate models derived on the study group (n=400) were tested on hold-out sample of Rajbanshi participants (n=100) and the other test population of the Karbi (n=200) participants. Results The results indicate that Index Finger Length (IFL) and Ring Finger Length (RFL) of both hands were significantly longer in males as compared to females. The ring finger was longer than the index finger in both sexes. The study successfully highlights the existence of sex differences in IFL and RFL (p<0.05). No sex differences were however, observed for the index and ring finger ratio. The predictive accuracy of IFL and RFL in sex estimation ranged between 70%-75% (in the hold out sample from the Rajbanshi population) and 60-66% (in the test sample from the Karbi population). A Receiver Operating Curve (ROC) analysis was performed to test the predictive accuracy after predicting the probability of IFL and RFL in sex estimation. The predicted probabilities using ROC analysis were observed to be higher on the left side and in multivariate analysis. Conclusion The

  12. Genotyping faecal samples of Bengal tiger Panthera tigris tigris for population estimation: A pilot study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Singh Lalji

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Bengal tiger Panthera tigris tigris the National Animal of India, is an endangered species. Estimating populations for such species is the main objective for designing conservation measures and for evaluating those that are already in place. Due to the tiger's cryptic and secretive behaviour, it is not possible to enumerate and monitor its populations through direct observations; instead indirect methods have always been used for studying tigers in the wild. DNA methods based on non-invasive sampling have not been attempted so far for tiger population studies in India. We describe here a pilot study using DNA extracted from faecal samples of tigers for the purpose of population estimation. Results In this study, PCR primers were developed based on tiger-specific variations in the mitochondrial cytochrome b for reliably identifying tiger faecal samples from those of sympatric carnivores. Microsatellite markers were developed for the identification of individual tigers with a sibling Probability of Identity of 0.005 that can distinguish even closely related individuals with 99.9% certainty. The effectiveness of using field-collected tiger faecal samples for DNA analysis was evaluated by sampling, identification and subsequently genotyping samples from two protected areas in southern India. Conclusion Our results demonstrate the feasibility of using tiger faecal matter as a potential source of DNA for population estimation of tigers in protected areas in India in addition to the methods currently in use.

  13. Correcting for Systematic Bias in Sample Estimates of Population Variances: Why Do We Divide by n-1?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mittag, Kathleen Cage

    An important topic presented in introductory statistics courses is the estimation of population parameters using samples. Students learn that when estimating population variances using sample data, we always get an underestimate of the population variance if we divide by n rather than n-1. One implication of this correction is that the degree of…

  14. Experimental estimation of mutation rates in a wheat population with a gene genealogy approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raquin, Anne-Laure; Depaulis, Frantz; Lambert, Amaury; Galic, Nathalie; Brabant, Philippe; Goldringer, Isabelle

    2008-08-01

    Microsatellite markers are extensively used to evaluate genetic diversity in natural or experimental evolving populations. Their high degree of polymorphism reflects their high mutation rates. Estimates of the mutation rates are therefore necessary when characterizing diversity in populations. As a complement to the classical experimental designs, we propose to use experimental populations, where the initial state is entirely known and some intermediate states have been thoroughly surveyed, thus providing a short timescale estimation together with a large number of cumulated meioses. In this article, we derived four original gene genealogy-based methods to assess mutation rates with limited bias due to relevant model assumptions incorporating the initial state, the number of new alleles, and the genetic effective population size. We studied the evolution of genetic diversity at 21 microsatellite markers, after 15 generations in an experimental wheat population. Compared to the parents, 23 new alleles were found in generation 15 at 9 of the 21 loci studied. We provide evidence that they arose by mutation. Corresponding estimates of the mutation rates ranged from 0 to 4.97 x 10(-3) per generation (i.e., year). Sequences of several alleles revealed that length polymorphism was only due to variation in the core of the microsatellite. Among different microsatellite characteristics, both the motif repeat number and an independent estimation of the Nei diversity were correlated with the novel diversity. Despite a reduced genetic effective size, global diversity at microsatellite markers increased in this population, suggesting that microsatellite diversity should be used with caution as an indicator in biodiversity conservation issues.

  15. Estimating population size of a nocturnal burrow-nesting seabird using acoustic monitoring and habitat mapping

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steffen Oppel

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Population size assessments for nocturnal burrow-nesting seabirds are logistically challenging because these species are active in colonies only during darkness and often nest on remote islands where manual inspections of breeding burrows are not feasible. Many seabird species are highly vocal, and recent technological innovations now make it possible to record and quantify vocal activity in seabird colonies. Here we test the hypothesis that remotely recorded vocal activity in Cory’s shearwater (Calonectris borealis breeding colonies in the North Atlantic increases with nest density, and combined this relationship with cliff habitat mapping to estimate the population size of Cory’s shearwaters on the island of Corvo (Azores. We deployed acoustic recording devices in 9 Cory’s shearwater colonies of known size to establish a relationship between vocal activity and local nest density (slope = 1.07, R2 = 0.86, p < 0.001. We used this relationship to predict the nest density in various cliff habitat types and produced a habitat map of breeding cliffs to extrapolate nest density around the island of Corvo. The mean predicted nest density on Corvo ranged from 6.6 (2.1–16.2 to 27.8 (19.5–36.4 nests/ha. Extrapolation of habitat-specific nest densities across the cliff area of Corvo resulted in an estimate of 6326 Cory’s shearwater nests (95% confidence interval: 3735–10,524. This population size estimate is similar to previous assessments, but is too imprecise to detect moderate changes in population size over time. While estimating absolute population size from acoustic recordings may not be sufficiently precise, the strong positive relationship that we found between local nest density and recorded calling rate indicates that passive acoustic monitoring may be useful to document relative changes in seabird populations over time.

  16. Using cohort change ratios to estimate life expectancy in populations with negligible migration: A new approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David A. Swanson

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Census survival methods are the oldest and most widely applicable methods of estimating adult mortality, and for populations with negligible migration they can provide excellent results. The reason for this ubiquity is threefold: (1 their data requirements are minimal in that only two successive age distributions are needed; (2 the two successive age distributions are usually easily obtained from census counts; and (3 the method is straightforward in that it requires neither a great deal of judgment nor “data-fitting” techniques to implement. This ubiquity is in contrast to other methods, which require more data, as well as judgment and, often, data fitting. In this short note, the new approach we demonstrate is that life expectancy at birth can be computed by using census survival rates in combination with an identity whereby the radix of a life table is equal to 1 (l0 = 1.00. We point out that our suggested method is less involved than the existing approach. We compare estimates using our approach against other estimates, and find it works reasonably well. As well as some nuances and cautions, we discuss the benefits of using this approach to estimate life expectancy, including the ability to develop estimates of average remaining life at any age. We believe that the technique is worthy of consideration for use in estimating life expectancy in populations that experience negligible migration.

  17. Using cohort change ratios to estimate life expectancy in populations with negligible migration: A new approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucky Tedrow

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Census survival methods are the oldest and most widely applicable methods of estimating adult mortality, and for populations with negligible migration they can provide excellent results. The reason for this ubiquity is threefold: (1 their data requirements are minimal in that only two successive age distributions are needed; (2 the two successive age distributions are usually easily obtained from census counts; and (3 the method is straightforward in that it requires neither a great deal of judgment nor “data-fitting” techniques to implement. This ubiquity is in contrast to other methods, which require more data, as well as judgment and, often, data fitting. In this short note, the new approach we demonstrate is that life expectancy at birth can be computed by using census survival rates in combination with an identity whereby the radix of a life table is equal to 1 (l0 = 1.00. We point out that our suggested method is less involved than the existing approach. We compare estimates using our approach against other estimates, and find it works reasonably well. As well as some nuances and cautions, we discuss the benefits of using this approach to estimate life expectancy, including the ability to develop estimates of average remaining life at any age. We believe that the technique is worthy of consideration for use in estimating life expectancy in populations that experience negligible migration.

  18. Estimating population parameters of longsnout seahorses, Hippocampus reidi (Teleostei: Syngnathidae through mark-recapture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandre C. Siqueira

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Estimating population parameters is essential for understanding the ecology of species, which ultimately helps to assess their conservation status. The seahorse Hippocampus reidi is directly exposed to anthropogenic threats along the Brazilian coast, but the species still figures as Data Deficient (DD at IUCN’s Red List. To provide better information on the ecology of this species, we studied how population parameters vary over time in a natural subtropical environment. By combing mark-recapture models for open and closed populations, we estimated abundance, survival rate, emigration probability, and capture probability. We marked 111 individuals, which showed a 1:1 sex ratio, and an average size of 10.5 cm. The population showed high survival rate, low temporary emigration probability and variable capture probability and abundance. Our models considering relevant biological criteria illuminate the relatively poorly known population ecology and life history of seahorses. It is our hope that this study inspires the use of mark-recapture methods in other populations of H. reidi in a collective effort to properly assess their conservation status.

  19. Estimating open population site occupancy from presence-absence data lacking the robust design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dail, D; Madsen, L

    2013-03-01

    Many animal monitoring studies seek to estimate the proportion of a study area occupied by a target population. The study area is divided into spatially distinct sites where the detected presence or absence of the population is recorded, and this is repeated in time for multiple seasons. However, when occupied sites are detected with probability p Ecology 84, 2200-2207) developed a multiseason model for estimating seasonal site occupancy (ψt ) while accounting for unknown p. Their model performs well when observations are collected according to the robust design, where multiple sampling occasions occur during each season; the repeated sampling aids in the estimation p. However, their model does not perform as well when the robust design is lacking. In this paper, we propose an alternative likelihood model that yields improved seasonal estimates of p and Ψt in the absence of the robust design. We construct the marginal likelihood of the observed data by conditioning on, and summing out, the latent number of occupied sites during each season. A simulation study shows that in cases without the robust design, the proposed model estimates p with less bias than the MacKenzie et al. model and hence improves the estimates of Ψt . We apply both models to a data set consisting of repeated presence-absence observations of American robins (Turdus migratorius) with yearly survey periods. The two models are compared to a third estimator available when the repeated counts (from the same study) are considered, with the proposed model yielding estimates of Ψt closest to estimates from the point count model. Copyright © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

  20. Counting Cats: Spatially Explicit Population Estimates of Cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus Using Unstructured Sampling Data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Femke Broekhuis

    Full Text Available Many ecological theories and species conservation programmes rely on accurate estimates of population density. Accurate density estimation, especially for species facing rapid declines, requires the application of rigorous field and analytical methods. However, obtaining accurate density estimates of carnivores can be challenging as carnivores naturally exist at relatively low densities and are often elusive and wide-ranging. In this study, we employ an unstructured spatial sampling field design along with a Bayesian sex-specific spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR analysis, to provide the first rigorous population density estimates of cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus in the Maasai Mara, Kenya. We estimate adult cheetah density to be between 1.28 ± 0.315 and 1.34 ± 0.337 individuals/100km2 across four candidate models specified in our analysis. Our spatially explicit approach revealed 'hotspots' of cheetah density, highlighting that cheetah are distributed heterogeneously across the landscape. The SECR models incorporated a movement range parameter which indicated that male cheetah moved four times as much as females, possibly because female movement was restricted by their reproductive status and/or the spatial distribution of prey. We show that SECR can be used for spatially unstructured data to successfully characterise the spatial distribution of a low density species and also estimate population density when sample size is small. Our sampling and modelling framework will help determine spatial and temporal variation in cheetah densities, providing a foundation for their conservation and management. Based on our results we encourage other researchers to adopt a similar approach in estimating densities of individually recognisable species.

  1. Counting Cats: Spatially Explicit Population Estimates of Cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) Using Unstructured Sampling Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broekhuis, Femke; Gopalaswamy, Arjun M

    2016-01-01

    Many ecological theories and species conservation programmes rely on accurate estimates of population density. Accurate density estimation, especially for species facing rapid declines, requires the application of rigorous field and analytical methods. However, obtaining accurate density estimates of carnivores can be challenging as carnivores naturally exist at relatively low densities and are often elusive and wide-ranging. In this study, we employ an unstructured spatial sampling field design along with a Bayesian sex-specific spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) analysis, to provide the first rigorous population density estimates of cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus) in the Maasai Mara, Kenya. We estimate adult cheetah density to be between 1.28 ± 0.315 and 1.34 ± 0.337 individuals/100km2 across four candidate models specified in our analysis. Our spatially explicit approach revealed 'hotspots' of cheetah density, highlighting that cheetah are distributed heterogeneously across the landscape. The SECR models incorporated a movement range parameter which indicated that male cheetah moved four times as much as females, possibly because female movement was restricted by their reproductive status and/or the spatial distribution of prey. We show that SECR can be used for spatially unstructured data to successfully characterise the spatial distribution of a low density species and also estimate population density when sample size is small. Our sampling and modelling framework will help determine spatial and temporal variation in cheetah densities, providing a foundation for their conservation and management. Based on our results we encourage other researchers to adopt a similar approach in estimating densities of individually recognisable species.

  2. Water corrosion resistance of ODS ferritic-martensitic steel tubes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narita, Takeshi; Ukai, Shigeharu; Kaito, Takeji; Ohtsuka, Satoshi; Matsuda, Yasuji

    2008-01-01

    Oxide dispersion strengthened (ODS) ferritic-martensitic steels have superior radiation resistance; it is possible to achieve a service temperature of up to around 973 K because of their superior creep strength. These advantages of ODS steels facilities their application to long-life cladding tubes in advanced fast reactor fuel elements. In addition to neutron radiation resistance, sufficient general corrosion resistance to maintain the strength of the cladding, and the stress corrosion cracking (SCC) resistance for spent-fuel-pool cooling systems and high-temperature oxidation for the fuel-clad chemical interaction (FCCI) of ODS ferritic steel are required. Although the addition of Cr to ODS is effective in preventing water corrosion and high-temperature oxidation, an excessively high amount of Cr leads to embrittlement due to the formation of a Cr-rich α' precipitate. The Cr content in 9Cr-ODS martensite and 12Cr-ODS ferrite, the ODS steels developed by the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA), is controlled. In a previous paper, it has been demonstrated that the resistances of 9Cr- and 12Cr-ODS ferritic-martensitic steels for high-temperature oxidation are superior to those of conventional 12Cr ferritic steel. However, the water corrosion data of ODS ferritic-martensitic steels are very limited. In this study, a water corrosion test was conducted on ODS steels in consideration of the spent-fuel-pool cooling condition, and the results were compared with those of conventional austenitic stainless steel and ferritic-martensitic stainless steel. (author)

  3. Positron annihilation characteristics of ODS and non-ODS EUROFER isochronally annealed

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ortega, Y.; Castro, V. de; Monge, M.A.; Munoz, A.; Leguey, T.; Pareja, R.

    2008-01-01

    Yttrium oxide dispersion strengthened (ODS) and non-ODS EUROFER produced by mechanical alloying and hot isostatic pressing have been subjected to isochronal annealing up to 1523 K, and the evolution of the open-volume defects and their thermal stability have been investigated using positron lifetime and coincidence Doppler broadening (CDB) techniques. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) observations have also been performed on the studied samples to verify the characteristics of the surviving defects after annealing at 1523 K. The CDB spectra of ODS EUROFER exhibit a characteristic signature that is attributed to positron annihilation in Ar-decorated cavities at the oxide particle/matrix interfaces. The variation of the positron annihilation parameters with the annealing temperature shows three stages: up to 623 K, between 823 and 1323 K, and above 1323 K. Three-dimensional vacancy clusters, or voids, are detected in either materials in as-HIPed condition and after annealing at T ≤ 623 K. In the temperature range 823-1323 K, these voids' growth and nucleation and the growth of other new species of voids take place. Above 1323 K, some unstable cavities start to anneal out, and cavities associated to oxide particles and other small precipitates survive to annealing at 1523 K. The TEM observations and the positron annihilation results indicate that these cavities should be decorated with Ar atoms absorbed during the mechanical alloying process

  4. Positron annihilation characteristics of ODS and non-ODS EUROFER isochronally annealed

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ortega, Y. [Departamento de Fisica, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, 28911 Leganes (Spain)], E-mail: yanicet@fis.ucm.es; Castro, V. de; Monge, M.A.; Munoz, A.; Leguey, T.; Pareja, R. [Departamento de Fisica, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, 28911 Leganes (Spain)

    2008-05-31

    Yttrium oxide dispersion strengthened (ODS) and non-ODS EUROFER produced by mechanical alloying and hot isostatic pressing have been subjected to isochronal annealing up to 1523 K, and the evolution of the open-volume defects and their thermal stability have been investigated using positron lifetime and coincidence Doppler broadening (CDB) techniques. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) observations have also been performed on the studied samples to verify the characteristics of the surviving defects after annealing at 1523 K. The CDB spectra of ODS EUROFER exhibit a characteristic signature that is attributed to positron annihilation in Ar-decorated cavities at the oxide particle/matrix interfaces. The variation of the positron annihilation parameters with the annealing temperature shows three stages: up to 623 K, between 823 and 1323 K, and above 1323 K. Three-dimensional vacancy clusters, or voids, are detected in either materials in as-HIPed condition and after annealing at T {<=} 623 K. In the temperature range 823-1323 K, these voids' growth and nucleation and the growth of other new species of voids take place. Above 1323 K, some unstable cavities start to anneal out, and cavities associated to oxide particles and other small precipitates survive to annealing at 1523 K. The TEM observations and the positron annihilation results indicate that these cavities should be decorated with Ar atoms absorbed during the mechanical alloying process.

  5. Effects of lek count protocols on greater sage-grouse population trend estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monroe, Adrian; Edmunds, David; Aldridge, Cameron L.

    2016-01-01

    Annual counts of males displaying at lek sites are an important tool for monitoring greater sage-grouse populations (Centrocercus urophasianus), but seasonal and diurnal variation in lek attendance may increase variance and bias of trend analyses. Recommendations for protocols to reduce observation error have called for restricting lek counts to within 30 minutes of sunrise, but this may limit the number of lek counts available for analysis, particularly from years before monitoring was widely standardized. Reducing the temporal window for conducting lek counts also may constrain the ability of agencies to monitor leks efficiently. We used lek count data collected across Wyoming during 1995−2014 to investigate the effect of lek counts conducted between 30 minutes before and 30, 60, or 90 minutes after sunrise on population trend estimates. We also evaluated trends across scales relevant to management, including statewide, within Working Group Areas and Core Areas, and for individual leks. To further evaluate accuracy and precision of trend estimates from lek count protocols, we used simulations based on a lek attendance model and compared simulated and estimated values of annual rate of change in population size (λ) from scenarios of varying numbers of leks, lek count timing, and count frequency (counts/lek/year). We found that restricting analyses to counts conducted within 30 minutes of sunrise generally did not improve precision of population trend estimates, although differences among timings increased as the number of leks and count frequency decreased. Lek attendance declined >30 minutes after sunrise, but simulations indicated that including lek counts conducted up to 90 minutes after sunrise can increase the number of leks monitored compared to trend estimates based on counts conducted within 30 minutes of sunrise. This increase in leks monitored resulted in greater precision of estimates without reducing accuracy. Increasing count

  6. OD in Schools: The State of the Art. Vol. II: Review of Research on OD. Final Report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fullan, Michael; And Others

    The purpose of this document, the second of a five-volume series, was to analyze the various reviews of organizational development (OD) in general, and case studies of school districts in particular, in order to synthesize information about OD as it applies to schools. The review is organized into four main categories: (1) values, themes, and…

  7. Dose-to-the-population exposure estimates for use of plutonium-238-powered artificial hearts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McKee, R.W.; Clark, L.L.; Cole, B.M.

    1976-09-01

    Estimates of dose to the population from /sup 238/Pu-powered artificial hearts were developed using a calculational model called REPRIEVE. This model develops the projected user population by incorporating assumptions regarding future heart disease death rates, the fraction dying who would be eligible candidates for artificial hearts, population projections, beginning implant rates, death rates after implant due to natural causes, and deaths caused by device failure. The user population was characterized by age, sex, household description, employment status and occupation. Census data on household descriptions and special surveys in selected cities provided the information necessary to describe persons exposed during both household and public activities. These surveys further defined distance and time of contact factors for these persons. Calculations using a dosemetry computer code defined the relationships between distance and dose. The validity of these calculations has been substantiated by experimental measurements.

  8. Dose-to-the-population exposure estimates for use of plutonium-238-powered artificial hearts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McKee, R.W.; Clark, L.L.; Cole, B.M.

    1976-09-01

    Estimates of dose to the population from 238 Pu-powered artificial hearts were developed using a calculational model called REPRIEVE. This model develops the projected user population by incorporating assumptions regarding future heart disease death rates, the fraction dying who would be eligible candidates for artificial hearts, population projections, beginning implant rates, death rates after implant due to natural causes, and deaths caused by device failure. The user population was characterized by age, sex, household description, employment status and occupation. Census data on household descriptions and special surveys in selected cities provided the information necessary to describe persons exposed during both household and public activities. These surveys further defined distance and time of contact factors for these persons. Calculations using a dosemetry computer code defined the relationships between distance and dose. The validity of these calculations has been substantiated by experimental measurements

  9. Dental age estimation from the developmental stage of the third molars in western Chinese population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Guo; Ren, Jiayin; Zhao, Shuping; Liu, Yuanyuan; Li, Na; Wu, Wanhong; Yuan, Shanshan; Wang, Hu

    2012-06-10

    The purpose of this study is to provide reference data about estimating dental age from third molars of the western Chinese population for comparing with other populations and being applied to the age estimation of western Chinese juveniles and adolescents. A total of 2078 digital panoramic radiographs of 989 male and 1089 female Chinese subjects aged between 5 and 23 years were examined. The mineralization status of the third molars was assessed using the formation stages described by Demirjian et al. with two modifications. The results showed that the development of third molars in the western Chinese population was likely to begin at age 5 in both males and females. The third molars 28 and 48 showed significantly higher frequency in females than in males. The third molars 18 in the stage 1, 38 in the stages 1, A and G, and 48 in the stage H showed significantly older average age in females than in males. The Demirjian's stages C and D could be used as a reference stage to determine dichotomously whether a western Chinese is more likely to be under or above age 14 or 16, respectively. This study provided reference data for the age estimation of western Chinese juveniles and adolescents by the mineralization stages of the third molar. Apart from forensic age determination in living subjects, the presented reference data can also be used for age estimations of unidentified corpses and skeletons. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Estimation of stature from different anthropometric measurements in Kori population of North India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renu Kamal

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In medico-legal cases, most often the personal identity of the deceased is a mystery. The stature, sex and other parameters in such scenarios are ascertained using the physical evidence present at the crime scene. One of the key methods of ascertaining the sex and stature is by using the human bones. The method of achieving accuracy in estimation of stature from bones has been well established in past. There are several regression formulae for conducting such estimation. However, it must be kept in mind that these regression equations can vary depending upon the population and region. Thus, it is very necessary to study a particular population thoroughly before formulating regression equations for that specific population patch. In this paper, we have penned down the study of KORI POPULATION, who are native to Kanpur region of Uttar Pradesh state, in India. In this study, we have observed the statistics of 202 individuals (106 females and 96 males. In totality, eight bone dimensions including stature, total arm length, length of the middle finger, knee length, foot length, foot breadth, maximum head length and maximum head breadth have been recorded in this research paper. The regression formulae for females and males have been derived separately. Further, there are various parameters that have been compared to find which parameter provides the best results in terms of accuracy in stature estimation.

  11. Estimating the Population Size and Genetic Diversity of Amur Tigers in Northeast China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hailong Dou

    Full Text Available Over the past century, the endangered Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica has experienced a severe contraction in demography and geographic range because of habitat loss, poaching, and prey depletion. In its historical home in Northeast China, there appears to be a single tiger population that includes tigers in Southwest Primorye and Northeast China; however, the current demographic status of this population is uncertain. Information on the abundance, distribution and genetic diversity of this population for assessing the efficacy of conservation interventions are scarce. We used noninvasive genetic detection data from scats, capture-recapture models and an accumulation curve method to estimate the abundance of Amur tigers in Northeast China. We identified 11 individual tigers (6 females and 5 males using 10 microsatellite loci in three nature reserves between April 2013 and May 2015. These tigers are confined primarily to a Hunchun Nature Reserve along the border with Russia, with an estimated population abundance of 9-11 tigers during the winter of 2014-2015. They showed a low level of genetic diversity. The mean number of alleles per locus was 2.60 and expected and observed heterozygosity were 0.42 and 0.49, respectively. We also documented long-distance dispersal (~270 km of a male Amur tiger to Huangnihe Nature Reserve from the border, suggesting that the expansion of neighboring Russian populations may eventually help sustain Chinese populations. However, the small and isolated population recorded by this study demonstrate that there is an urgent need for more intensive regional management to create a tiger-permeable landscape and increased genetic connectivity with other populations.

  12. Estimating the Population Size and Genetic Diversity of Amur Tigers in Northeast China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dou, Hailong; Yang, Haitao; Feng, Limin; Mou, Pu; Wang, Tianming; Ge, Jianping

    2016-01-01

    Over the past century, the endangered Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) has experienced a severe contraction in demography and geographic range because of habitat loss, poaching, and prey depletion. In its historical home in Northeast China, there appears to be a single tiger population that includes tigers in Southwest Primorye and Northeast China; however, the current demographic status of this population is uncertain. Information on the abundance, distribution and genetic diversity of this population for assessing the efficacy of conservation interventions are scarce. We used noninvasive genetic detection data from scats, capture-recapture models and an accumulation curve method to estimate the abundance of Amur tigers in Northeast China. We identified 11 individual tigers (6 females and 5 males) using 10 microsatellite loci in three nature reserves between April 2013 and May 2015. These tigers are confined primarily to a Hunchun Nature Reserve along the border with Russia, with an estimated population abundance of 9-11 tigers during the winter of 2014-2015. They showed a low level of genetic diversity. The mean number of alleles per locus was 2.60 and expected and observed heterozygosity were 0.42 and 0.49, respectively. We also documented long-distance dispersal (~270 km) of a male Amur tiger to Huangnihe Nature Reserve from the border, suggesting that the expansion of neighboring Russian populations may eventually help sustain Chinese populations. However, the small and isolated population recorded by this study demonstrate that there is an urgent need for more intensive regional management to create a tiger-permeable landscape and increased genetic connectivity with other populations.

  13. Revealing life-history traits by contrasting genetic estimations with predictions of effective population size.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenbaum, Gili; Renan, Sharon; Templeton, Alan R; Bouskila, Amos; Saltz, David; Rubenstein, Daniel I; Bar-David, Shirli

    2017-12-22

    Effective population size, a central concept in conservation biology, is now routinely estimated from genetic surveys and can also be theoretically predicted from demographic, life-history, and mating-system data. By evaluating the consistency of theoretical predictions with empirically estimated effective size, insights can be gained regarding life-history characteristics and the relative impact of different life-history traits on genetic drift. These insights can be used to design and inform management strategies aimed at increasing effective population size. We demonstrated this approach by addressing the conservation of a reintroduced population of Asiatic wild ass (Equus hemionus). We estimated the variance effective size (N ev ) from genetic data (N ev =24.3) and formulated predictions for the impacts on N ev of demography, polygyny, female variance in lifetime reproductive success (RS), and heritability of female RS. By contrasting the genetic estimation with theoretical predictions, we found that polygyny was the strongest factor affecting genetic drift because only when accounting for polygyny were predictions consistent with the genetically measured N ev . The comparison of effective-size estimation and predictions indicated that 10.6% of the males mated per generation when heritability of female RS was unaccounted for (polygyny responsible for 81% decrease in N ev ) and 19.5% mated when female RS was accounted for (polygyny responsible for 67% decrease in N ev ). Heritability of female RS also affected N ev ; hf2=0.91 (heritability responsible for 41% decrease in N ev ). The low effective size is of concern, and we suggest that management actions focus on factors identified as strongly affecting Nev, namely, increasing the availability of artificial water sources to increase number of dominant males contributing to the gene pool. This approach, evaluating life-history hypotheses in light of their impact on effective population size, and contrasting

  14. [Population estimates and conservation of felids (Carnivora: Felidae) in Northern Quintana Roo, Mexico].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ávila-Nájera, Dulce María; Chávez, Cuauhtémoc; Lazcano-Barrero, Marco A; Pérez-Elizalde, Sergio; Alcántara-Carbajal, José Luis

    2015-09-01

    Wildlife density estimates provide an idea of the current state of populations, and in some cases, reflect the conservation status of ecosystems, essential aspects for effective management actions. In Mexico, several regions have been identified as high priority areas for the conservation of species that have some level of risk, like the Yucatan Peninsula (YP), where the country has the largest population of jaguars. However, little is known about the current status of threatened and endangered felids, which coexist in the Northeastern portion of the Peninsula. Our objective was to estimate the wild cats' density population over time at El Eden Ecological Reserve (EEER) and its surrounding areas. Camera trap surveys over four years (2008, 2010, 2011 and 2012) were conducted, and data were obtained with the use of capture-recapture models for closed populations (CAPTURE + MMDM or 1/2 MMDM), and the spatially explicit capture-recapture model (SPACECAP). The species studied were jaguar (Panthera onca), puma (Puma concolor), ocelot (Leopardus pardalis), jaguarundi (Puma yaguaroundi) and margay (Leopardus wiedii). Capture frequency was obtained for all five species and the density for three (individuals/100km2). The density estimated with The Mean Maximum Distance Moved (MMDM), CAPTURE, ranged from 1.2 to 2.6 for jaguars, from 1.7 to 4.3 for pumas and from 1.4 to 13.8 for ocelots. The density estimates in SPACECAP ranged from 0.7 to 3.6 for jaguars, from 1.8 to 5.2 for pumas and 2.1 to 5.1 for ocelots. Spatially explicit capture recapture (SECR) methods in SPACECAP were less likely to overestimate densities, making it a useful tool in the planning and decision making process for the conservation of these species. The Northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula maintains high populations of cats, the EEER and its surrounding areas are valuable sites for the conservation of this group of predators. Rev. Biol.

  15. Collective effective dose equivalent, population doses and risk estimates from occupational exposures in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maruyama, Takashi; Nishizawa, Kanae; Kumamoto, Yoshikazu; Iwai, Kazuo; Mase, Naomichi.

    1993-01-01

    Collective dose equivalent and population dose from occupational exposures in Japan, 1988 were estimated on the basis of a nationwide survey. The survey was conducted on annual collective dose equivalents by sex, age group and type of radiation work for about 0.21 million workers except for the workers in nuclear power stations. The data on the workers in nuclear power stations were obtained from the official report of the Japan Nuclear Safety Commission. The total number of workers including nuclear power stations was estimated to be about 0.26 million. Radiation works were subdivided as follows: medical works including dental; non-atomic energy industry; research and education; atomic energy industry and nuclear power station. For the determination of effective dose equivalent and population dose, organ or tissue doses were measured with a phantom experiment. The resultant doses were compared with the doses previously calculated using a chord length technique and with data from ICRP publications. The annual collective effective dose equivalent were estimated to be about 21.94 person·Sv for medical workers, 7.73 person·Sv for industrial workers, 0.75 person·Sv for research and educational workers, 2.48 person·Sv for atomic energy industry and 84.4 person ·Sv for workers in nuclear power station. The population doses were calculated to be about 1.07 Sv for genetically significant dose, 0.89 Sv for leukemia significant dose and 0.42 Sv for malignant significant dose. The population risks were estimated using these population doses. (author)

  16. Efficacy of using data from angler-caught Burbot to estimate population rate functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brauer, Tucker A.; Rhea, Darren T.; Walrath, John D.; Quist, Michael C.

    2018-01-01

    The effective management of a fish population depends on the collection of accurate demographic data from that population. Since demographic data are often expensive and difficult to obtain, developing cost‐effective and efficient collection methods is a high priority. This research evaluates the efficacy of using angler‐supplied data to monitor a nonnative population of Burbot Lota lota. Age and growth estimates were compared between Burbot collected by anglers and those collected in trammel nets from two Wyoming reservoirs. Collection methods produced different length‐frequency distributions, but no difference was observed in age‐frequency distributions. Mean back‐calculated lengths at age revealed that netted Burbot grew faster than angled Burbot in Fontenelle Reservoir. In contrast, angled Burbot grew slightly faster than netted Burbot in Flaming Gorge Reservoir. Von Bertalanffy growth models differed between collection methods, but differences in parameter estimates were minor. Estimates of total annual mortality (A) of Burbot in Fontenelle Reservoir were comparable between angled (A = 35.4%) and netted fish (33.9%); similar results were observed in Flaming Gorge Reservoir for angled (29.3%) and netted fish (30.5%). Beverton–Holt yield‐per‐recruit models were fit using data from both collection methods. Estimated yield differed by less than 15% between data sources and reservoir. Spawning potential ratios indicated that an exploitation rate of 20% would be required to induce recruitment overfishing in either reservoir, regardless of data source. Results of this study suggest that angler‐supplied data are useful for monitoring Burbot population dynamics in Wyoming and may be an option to efficiently monitor other fish populations in North America.

  17. Assessment and comparison of oxides grown on 304l ods steel and 304l ss in water environment in supercritical conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mihalache, M.; Dinu, A.; Fulger, M.; Zhou, Z.; Mihalache, M.

    2013-01-01

    In order to fulfil superior cladding for new reactor generation G IV, the austenitic 3 04 L stainless steel was improved by oxide dispersion strengthening (ODS), using two nano-oxides: titanium and yttrium oxides. The behaviour of the new material resulted, 304 ODS, in water at supercritical temperature of about 550 O C and 25 MPa pressure, was considered. The oxidation kinetics by weigh gain measurements for both materials have been estimated and compared. The weight gain of ODS samples is higher than basic austenitic steel up to 1320 hours. The oxides developed on the ODS samples in SCPW are layered and more uniform than in 304 L SS. The protectively character of oxide films was estimated by different techniques. The morphology of oxide surface, the layering and chemical formula of oxides films were investigated by scanning electron microscopy (SEM), Energy Dispersion X-Ray Spectrometry (EDS), electrochemical impedance spectrometry (EIS) and by Small Angle X-ray Diffraction (SAXD). 1. (authors)

  18. U.S. Census Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for Selected Age Groups by Sex for the United States

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — 2010-2015. U.S. Census Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for Selected Age Groups by Sex for the United States. The estimates are based on the 2010 Census...

  19. Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ) Urban-Rural Population Estimates, Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project (GRUMP), Alpha Version

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ) Urban-Rural Estimates consists of country-level estimates of urban, rural and total population and land area country-wide and...

  20. Estimates of the Size and Characteristics of the Resident Nonimmigrant Population in the United States: January 2011

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — This report presents estimates of the size and characteristics of the resident nonimmigrant population in the United States. The estimates are daily averages for the...

  1. Spatially explicit population estimates for black bears based on cluster sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humm, J.; McCown, J. Walter; Scheick, B.K.; Clark, Joseph D.

    2017-01-01

    We estimated abundance and density of the 5 major black bear (Ursus americanus) subpopulations (i.e., Eglin, Apalachicola, Osceola, Ocala-St. Johns, Big Cypress) in Florida, USA with spatially explicit capture-mark-recapture (SCR) by extracting DNA from hair samples collected at barbed-wire hair sampling sites. We employed a clustered sampling configuration with sampling sites arranged in 3 × 3 clusters spaced 2 km apart within each cluster and cluster centers spaced 16 km apart (center to center). We surveyed all 5 subpopulations encompassing 38,960 km2 during 2014 and 2015. Several landscape variables, most associated with forest cover, helped refine density estimates for the 5 subpopulations we sampled. Detection probabilities were affected by site-specific behavioral responses coupled with individual capture heterogeneity associated with sex. Model-averaged bear population estimates ranged from 120 (95% CI = 59–276) bears or a mean 0.025 bears/km2 (95% CI = 0.011–0.44) for the Eglin subpopulation to 1,198 bears (95% CI = 949–1,537) or 0.127 bears/km2 (95% CI = 0.101–0.163) for the Ocala-St. Johns subpopulation. The total population estimate for our 5 study areas was 3,916 bears (95% CI = 2,914–5,451). The clustered sampling method coupled with information on land cover was efficient and allowed us to estimate abundance across extensive areas that would not have been possible otherwise. Clustered sampling combined with spatially explicit capture-recapture methods has the potential to provide rigorous population estimates for a wide array of species that are extensive and heterogeneous in their distribution.

  2. Estimation of mortality for stage-structured zooplankton populations: What is to be done?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohman, Mark D.

    2012-05-01

    Estimation of zooplankton mortality rates in field populations is a challenging task that some contend is inherently intractable. This paper examines several of the objections that are commonly raised to efforts to estimate mortality. We find that there are circumstances in the field where it is possible to sequentially sample the same population and to resolve biologically caused mortality, albeit with error. Precision can be improved with sampling directed by knowledge of the physical structure of the water column, combined with adequate sample replication. Intercalibration of sampling methods can make it possible to sample across the life history in a quantitative manner. Rates of development can be constrained by laboratory-based estimates of stage durations from temperature- and food-dependent functions, mesocosm studies of molting rates, or approximation of development rates from growth rates, combined with the vertical distributions of organisms in relation to food and temperature gradients. Careful design of field studies guided by the assumptions of specific estimation models can lead to satisfactory mortality estimates, but model uncertainty also needs to be quantified. We highlight additional issues requiring attention to further advance the field, including the need for linked cooperative studies of the rates and causes of mortality of co-occurring holozooplankton and ichthyoplankton.

  3. GONe: Software for estimating effective population size in species with generational overlap

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coombs, J.A.; Letcher, B.H.; Nislow, K.H.

    2012-01-01

    GONe is a user-friendly, Windows-based program for estimating effective size (N e) in populations with overlapping generations. It uses the Jorde-Ryman modification to the temporal method to account for age structure in populations. This method requires estimates of age-specific survival and birth rate and allele frequencies measured in two or more consecutive cohorts. Allele frequencies are acquired by reading in genotypic data from files formatted for either GENEPOP or TEMPOFS. For each interval between consecutive cohorts, N e is estimated at each locus and over all loci. Furthermore, N e estimates are output for three different genetic drift estimators (F s, F c and F k). Confidence intervals are derived from a chi-square distribution with degrees of freedom equal to the number of independent alleles. GONe has been validated over a wide range of N e values, and for scenarios where survival and birth rates differ between sexes, sex ratios are unequal and reproductive variances differ. GONe is freely available for download at. ?? 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  4. Estimating mutation parameters, population history and genealogy simultaneously from temporally spaced sequence data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drummond, Alexei J; Nicholls, Geoff K; Rodrigo, Allen G; Solomon, Wiremu

    2002-07-01

    Molecular sequences obtained at different sampling times from populations of rapidly evolving pathogens and from ancient subfossil and fossil sources are increasingly available with modern sequencing technology. Here, we present a Bayesian statistical inference approach to the joint estimation of mutation rate and population size that incorporates the uncertainty in the genealogy of such temporally spaced sequences by using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) integration. The Kingman coalescent model is used to describe the time structure of the ancestral tree. We recover information about the unknown true ancestral coalescent tree, population size, and the overall mutation rate from temporally spaced data, that is, from nucleotide sequences gathered at different times, from different individuals, in an evolving haploid population. We briefly discuss the methodological implications and show what can be inferred, in various practically relevant states of prior knowledge. We develop extensions for exponentially growing population size and joint estimation of substitution model parameters. We illustrate some of the important features of this approach on a genealogy of HIV-1 envelope (env) partial sequences.

  5. Estimation of the target stem-cell population size in chronic myeloid leukemogenesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Radivoyevitch, T.; Ramsey, M.J.; Tucker, J.D.

    1999-01-01

    Estimation of the number of hematopoietic stem cells capable of causing chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) is relevant to the development of biologically based risk models of radiation-induced CML. Through a comparison of the age structure of CML incidence data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program and the age structure of chromosomal translocations found in healthy subjects, the number of CML target stem cells is estimated for individuals above 20 years of age. The estimation involves three steps. First, CML incidence among adults is fit to an exponentially increasing function of age. Next, assuming a relatively short waiting time distribution between BCR-ABL induction and the appearance of CML, an exponential age function with rate constants fixed to the values found for CML is fitted to the translocation data. Finally, assuming that translocations are equally likely to occur between any two points in the genome, the parameter estimates found in the first two steps are used to estimate the number of target stem cells for CML. The population-averaged estimates of this number are found to be 1.86 x 10 8 for men and 1.21 x 10 8 for women; the 95% confidence intervals of these estimates are (1.34 x 10 8 , 2.50 x 10 8 ) and (0.84 x 10 8 , 1.83 x 10 8 ), respectively. (orig.)

  6. Results and evaluation of a survey to estimate Pacific walrus population size, 2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Speckman, Suzann G.; Chernook, Vladimir I.; Burn, Douglas M.; Udevitz, Mark S.; Kochnev, Anatoly A.; Vasilev, Alexander; Jay, Chadwick V.; Lisovsky, Alexander; Fischbach, Anthony S.; Benter, R. Bradley

    2011-01-01

    In spring 2006, we conducted a collaborative U.S.-Russia survey to estimate abundance of the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens). The Bering Sea was partitioned into survey blocks, and a systematic random sample of transects within a subset of the blocks was surveyed with airborne thermal scanners using standard strip-transect methodology. Counts of walruses in photographed groups were used to model the relation between thermal signatures and the number of walruses in groups, which was used to estimate the number of walruses in groups that were detected by the scanner but not photographed. We also modeled the probability of thermally detecting various-sized walrus groups to estimate the number of walruses in groups undetected by the scanner. We used data from radio-tagged walruses to adjust on-ice estimates to account for walruses in the water during the survey. The estimated area of available habitat averaged 668,000 km2 and the area of surveyed blocks was 318,204 km2. The number of Pacific walruses within the surveyed area was estimated at 129,000 with 95% confidence limits of 55,000 to 507,000 individuals. This value can be used by managers as a minimum estimate of the total population size.

  7. Estimating the contribution of genetic variants to difference in incidence of disease between population groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moonesinghe, Ramal; Ioannidis, John P A; Flanders, W Dana; Yang, Quanhe; Truman, Benedict I; Khoury, Muin J

    2012-08-01

    Genome-wide association studies have identified multiple genetic susceptibility variants to several complex human diseases. However, risk-genotype frequency at loci showing robust associations might differ substantially among different populations. In this paper, we present methods to assess the contribution of genetic variants to the difference in the incidence of disease between different population groups for different scenarios. We derive expressions for the contribution of a single genetic variant, multiple genetic variants, and the contribution of the joint effect of a genetic variant and an environmental factor to the difference in the incidence of disease. The contribution of genetic variants to the difference in incidence increases with increasing difference in risk-genotype frequency, but declines with increasing difference in incidence between the two populations. The contribution of genetic variants also increases with increasing relative risk and the contribution of joint effect of genetic and environmental factors increases with increasing relative risk of the gene-environmental interaction. The contribution of genetic variants to the difference in incidence between two populations can be expressed as a function of the population attributable risks of the genetic variants in the two populations. The contribution of a group of genetic variants to the disparity in incidence of disease could change considerably by adding one more genetic variant to the group. Any estimate of genetic contribution to the disparity in incidence of disease between two populations at this stage seems to be an elusive goal.

  8. Estimating the contribution of genetic variants to difference in incidence of disease between population groups

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moonesinghe, Ramal; Ioannidis, John PA; Flanders, W Dana; Yang, Quanhe; Truman, Benedict I; Khoury, Muin J

    2012-01-01

    Genome-wide association studies have identified multiple genetic susceptibility variants to several complex human diseases. However, risk-genotype frequency at loci showing robust associations might differ substantially among different populations. In this paper, we present methods to assess the contribution of genetic variants to the difference in the incidence of disease between different population groups for different scenarios. We derive expressions for the contribution of a single genetic variant, multiple genetic variants, and the contribution of the joint effect of a genetic variant and an environmental factor to the difference in the incidence of disease. The contribution of genetic variants to the difference in incidence increases with increasing difference in risk-genotype frequency, but declines with increasing difference in incidence between the two populations. The contribution of genetic variants also increases with increasing relative risk and the contribution of joint effect of genetic and environmental factors increases with increasing relative risk of the gene–environmental interaction. The contribution of genetic variants to the difference in incidence between two populations can be expressed as a function of the population attributable risks of the genetic variants in the two populations. The contribution of a group of genetic variants to the disparity in incidence of disease could change considerably by adding one more genetic variant to the group. Any estimate of genetic contribution to the disparity in incidence of disease between two populations at this stage seems to be an elusive goal. PMID:22333905

  9. Estimates of effective equivalent dose commitments for Slovene population following the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanduc, M.; Jovanowic, O.; Kuhar, B.

    2004-01-01

    This paper shows the estimates of effective equivalent dose commitments for the two groups of Slovene population, 5 years old children and adults. Doses were calculated on the basis of the ICRP 30 methodology, first from the measurements of the concentrations of the radionuclides in air, water and food samples and then compared with the results of the measurements of radionuclides in composite samples of the prepared food, taken in the kindergarten nearby. Results show that there is certain degree of conservatism hidden in the calculation of the doses on the basis of measurements of the activity concentration in the elements of the biosphere and is estimated to be roughly 50%. (author)

  10. Estimation of the population dose from medical X-ray diagnostic examination in Shandong province, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Su Xieming

    1985-01-01

    The exposure doses on the examinated body surface for verious types of X-ray diagnostic examanition in Shandong Province were surveyed. The collective effective dose equivalent in per million population were calculated with the measured results, the ratios of orga absorbed doses to irradiated surface exposure doses and the frequencies of X-ray examination in Shandong Province. The result was 326 man.Sv per million total population in 1980, of which chest fluoroscopies. lumbar spine radiographies and G.I. examination were estimated to be about 78, 9 and 5 precent, respectively

  11. Mark-resight approach as a tool to estimate population size of one of the world’s smallest goose populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clausen, Kevin Kuhlmann; Fælled, Casper Cæsar; Clausen, Preben

    2013-01-01

    The present study investigates the use of a mark–resight procedure to estimate total population size in a local goose population. Using colour-ring sightings of the increasingly scattered population of Light-bellied Brent Geese Branta bernicla hrota from their Danish staging areas, we estimate...... a total population size of 7845 birds (95% CI: 7252–8438). This is in good agreement with numbers obtained from total counts, emphasizing that this population, although steadily increasing, is still small compared with historic numbers....

  12. Accuracy of an equation for estimating age from mandibular third molar development in a Thai population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verochana, Karune; Prapayasatok, Sangsom; Janhom, Apirum; Mahasantipiya, Phattaranant May; Korwanich, Narumanas

    2016-01-01

    This study assessed the accuracy of age estimates produced by a regression equation derived from lower third molar development in a Thai population. The first part of this study relied on measurements taken from panoramic radiographs of 614 Thai patients aged from 9 to 20. The stage of lower left and right third molar development was observed in each radiograph and a modified Gat score was assigned. Linear regression on this data produced the following equation: Y=9.309+1.673 mG+0.303S (Y=age; mG=modified Gat score; S=sex). In the second part of this study, the predictive accuracy of this equation was evaluated using data from a second set of panoramic radiographs (539 Thai subjects, 9 to 24 years old). Each subject's age was estimated using the above equation and compared against age calculated from a provided date of birth. Estimated and known age data were analyzed using the Pearson correlation coefficient and descriptive statistics. Ages estimated from lower left and lower right third molar development stage were significantly correlated with the known ages (r=0.818, 0.808, respectively, P≤0.01). 50% of age estimates in the second part of the study fell within a range of error of ±1 year, while 75% fell within a range of error of ±2 years. The study found that the equation tends to estimate age accurately when individuals are 9 to 20 years of age. The equation can be used for age estimation for Thai populations when the individuals are 9 to 20 years of age

  13. Accuracy of an equation for estimating age from mandibular third molar development in a Thai population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verochana, Karune; Prapayasatok, Sangsom; Janhom, Apirum; Mahasantipiya, Phattaranant May; Korwanich, Narumanas

    2016-03-01

    This study assessed the accuracy of age estimates produced by a regression equation derived from lower third molar development in a Thai population. The first part of this study relied on measurements taken from panoramic radiographs of 614 Thai patients aged from 9 to 20. The stage of lower left and right third molar development was observed in each radiograph and a modified Gat score was assigned. Linear regression on this data produced the following equation: Y=9.309+1.673 mG+0.303S (Y=age; mG=modified Gat score; S=sex). In the second part of this study, the predictive accuracy of this equation was evaluated using data from a second set of panoramic radiographs (539 Thai subjects, 9 to 24 years old). Each subject's age was estimated using the above equation and compared against age calculated from a provided date of birth. Estimated and known age data were analyzed using the Pearson correlation coefficient and descriptive statistics. Ages estimated from lower left and lower right third molar development stage were significantly correlated with the known ages (r=0.818, 0.808, respectively, P≤0.01). 50% of age estimates in the second part of the study fell within a range of error of ±1 year, while 75% fell within a range of error of ±2 years. The study found that the equation tends to estimate age accurately when individuals are 9 to 20 years of age. The equation can be used for age estimation for Thai populations when the individuals are 9 to 20 years of age.

  14. Accuracy of an equation for estimating age from mandibular third molar development in a Thai population

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Verochana, Karune; Prapayasatok, Sangsom; Janhom, Apirum; Mahasantipiya, Phattaranant May; Korwanich, Narumanas [Faculty of Dentistry, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai (Thailand)

    2016-03-15

    This study assessed the accuracy of age estimates produced by a regression equation derived from lower third molar development in a Thai population. The first part of this study relied on measurements taken from panoramic radiographs of 614 Thai patients aged from 9 to 20. The stage of lower left and right third molar development was observed in each radiograph and a modified Gat score was assigned. Linear regression on this data produced the following equation: Y=9.309+1.673 mG+0.303S (Y=age; mG=modified Gat score; S=sex). In the second part of this study, the predictive accuracy of this equation was evaluated using data from a second set of panoramic radiographs (539 Thai subjects, 9 to 24 years old). Each subject's age was estimated using the above equation and compared against age calculated from a provided date of birth. Estimated and known age data were analyzed using the Pearson correlation coefficient and descriptive statistics. Ages estimated from lower left and lower right third molar development stage were significantly correlated with the known ages (r=0.818, 0.808, respectively, P≤0.01). 50% of age estimates in the second part of the study fell within a range of error of ±1 year, while 75% fell within a range of error of ±2 years. The study found that the equation tends to estimate age accurately when individuals are 9 to 20 years of age. The equation can be used for age estimation for Thai populations when the individuals are 9 to 20 years of age.

  15. A robust new metric of phenotypic distance to estimate and compare multiple trait differences among populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rebecca SAFRAN, Samuel FLAXMAN, Michael KOPP, Darren E. IRWIN, Derek BRIGGS, Matthew R. EVANS, W. Chris FUNK, David A. GRAY, Eileen A. HEBE

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Whereas a rich literature exists for estimating population genetic divergence, metrics of phenotypic trait divergence are lacking, particularly for comparing multiple traits among three or more populations. Here, we review and analyze via simulation Hedges’ g, a widely used parametric estimate of effect size. Our analyses indicate that g is sensitive to a combination of unequal trait variances and unequal sample sizes among populations and to changes in the scale of measurement. We then go on to derive and explain a new, non-parametric distance measure, “Δp”, which is calculated based upon a joint cumulative distribution function (CDF from all populations under study. More precisely, distances are measured in terms of the percentiles in this CDF at which each population’s median lies. Δp combines many desirable features of other distance metrics into a single metric; namely, compared to other metrics, p is relatively insensitive to unequal variances and sample sizes among the populations sampled. Furthermore, a key feature of Δp—and our main motivation for developing it—is that it easily accommodates simultaneous comparisons of any number of traits across any number of populations. To exemplify its utility, we employ Δp to address a question related to the role of sexual selection in speciation: are sexual signals more divergent than ecological traits in closely related taxa? Using traits of known function in closely related populations, we show that traits predictive of reproductive performance are, indeed, more divergent and more sexually dimorphic than traits related to ecological adaptation [Current Zoology 58 (3: 423-436, 2012].

  16. Validation of a physical anthropology methodology using mandibles for gender estimation in a Brazilian population

    Science.gov (United States)

    CARVALHO, Suzana Papile Maciel; BRITO, Liz Magalhães; de PAIVA, Luiz Airton Saavedra; BICUDO, Lucilene Arilho Ribeiro; CROSATO, Edgard Michel; de OLIVEIRA, Rogério Nogueira

    2013-01-01

    Validation studies of physical anthropology methods in the different population groups are extremely important, especially in cases in which the population variations may cause problems in the identification of a native individual by the application of norms developed for different communities. Objective This study aimed to estimate the gender of skeletons by application of the method of Oliveira, et al. (1995), previously used in a population sample from Northeast Brazil. Material and Methods The accuracy of this method was assessed for a population from Southeast Brazil and validated by statistical tests. The method used two mandibular measurements, namely the bigonial distance and the mandibular ramus height. The sample was composed of 66 skulls and the method was applied by two examiners. The results were statistically analyzed by the paired t test, logistic discriminant analysis and logistic regression. Results The results demonstrated that the application of the method of Oliveira, et al. (1995) in this population achieved very different outcomes between genders, with 100% for females and only 11% for males, which may be explained by ethnic differences. However, statistical adjustment of measurement data for the population analyzed allowed accuracy of 76.47% for males and 78.13% for females, with the creation of a new discriminant formula. Conclusion It was concluded that methods involving physical anthropology present high rate of accuracy for human identification, easy application, low cost and simplicity; however, the methodologies must be validated for the different populations due to differences in ethnic patterns, which are directly related to the phenotypic aspects. In this specific case, the method of Oliveira, et al. (1995) presented good accuracy and may be used for gender estimation in Brazil in two geographic regions, namely Northeast and Southeast; however, for other regions of the country (North, Central West and South), previous methodological

  17. Validation of a physical anthropology methodology using mandibles for gender estimation in a Brazilian population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suzana Papile Maciel Carvalho

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Validation studies of physical anthropology methods in the different population groups are extremely important, especially in cases in which the population variations may cause problems in the identification of a native individual by the application of norms developed for different communities. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to estimate the gender of skeletons by application of the method of Oliveira, et al. (1995, previously used in a population sample from Northeast Brazil. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The accuracy of this method was assessed for a population from Southeast Brazil and validated by statistical tests. The method used two mandibular measurements, namely the bigonial distance and the mandibular ramus height. The sample was composed of 66 skulls and the method was applied by two examiners. The results were statistically analyzed by the paired t test, logistic discriminant analysis and logistic regression. RESULTS: The results demonstrated that the application of the method of Oliveira, et al. (1995 in this population achieved very different outcomes between genders, with 100% for females and only 11% for males, which may be explained by ethnic differences. However, statistical adjustment of measurement data for the population analyzed allowed accuracy of 76.47% for males and 78.13% for females, with the creation of a new discriminant formula. CONCLUSION: It was concluded that methods involving physical anthropology present high rate of accuracy for human identification, easy application, low cost and simplicity; however, the methodologies must be validated for the different populations due to differences in ethnic patterns, which are directly related to the phenotypic aspects. In this specific case, the method of Oliveira, et al. (1995 presented good accuracy and may be used for gender estimation in Brazil in two geographic regions, namely Northeast and Southeast; however, for other regions of the country (North, Central West and South

  18. Estimating mean change in population salt intake using spot urine samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersen, Kristina S; Wu, Jason H Y; Webster, Jacqui; Grimes, Carley; Woodward, Mark; Nowson, Caryl A; Neal, Bruce

    2017-10-01

    Spot urine samples are easier to collect than 24-h urine samples and have been used with estimating equations to derive the mean daily salt intake of a population. Whether equations using data from spot urine samples can also be used to estimate change in mean daily population salt intake over time is unknown. We compared estimates of change in mean daily population salt intake based upon 24-h urine collections with estimates derived using equations based on spot urine samples. Paired and unpaired 24-h urine samples and spot urine samples were collected from individuals in two Australian populations, in 2011 and 2014. Estimates of change in daily mean population salt intake between 2011 and 2014 were obtained directly from the 24-h urine samples and by applying established estimating equations (Kawasaki, Tanaka, Mage, Toft, INTERSALT) to the data from spot urine samples. Differences between 2011 and 2014 were calculated using mixed models. A total of 1000 participants provided a 24-h urine sample and a spot urine sample in 2011, and 1012 did so in 2014 (paired samples n = 870; unpaired samples n = 1142). The participants were community-dwelling individuals living in the State of Victoria or the town of Lithgow in the State of New South Wales, Australia, with a mean age of 55 years in 2011. The mean (95% confidence interval) difference in population salt intake between 2011 and 2014 determined from the 24-h urine samples was -0.48g/day (-0.74 to -0.21; P spot urine samples was -0.24 g/day (-0.42 to -0.06; P = 0.01) using the Tanaka equation, -0.42 g/day (-0.70 to -0.13; p = 0.004) using the Kawasaki equation, -0.51 g/day (-1.00 to -0.01; P = 0.046) using the Mage equation, -0.26 g/day (-0.42 to -0.10; P = 0.001) using the Toft equation, -0.20 g/day (-0.32 to -0.09; P = 0.001) using the INTERSALT equation and -0.27 g/day (-0.39 to -0.15; P  0.058). Separate analysis of the unpaired and paired data showed that detection of

  19. Estimation of natural radiation background level and population dose in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pan Ziqiang

    1992-01-01

    The authors describe in general the natural radiation background level in China, and based on available data present an estimated annual effective dose equivalent of the population to natural radiation that is some 2.3 mSv, of which about 0.54 mSv is from original γ radiation and about 0.8 mSv from radon and its short-lived daughters

  20. Estimation of Potential Population Level Effects of Contaminants on Wildlife; FINAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loar, J.M.

    2001-01-01

    The objective of this project is to provide DOE with improved methods to assess risks from contaminants to wildlife populations. The current approach for wildlife risk assessment consists of comparison of contaminant exposure estimates for individual animals to literature-derived toxicity test endpoints. These test endpoints are assumed to estimate thresholds for population-level effects. Moreover, species sensitivities to contaminants is one of several criteria to be considered when selecting assessment endpoints (EPA 1997 and 1998), yet data on the sensitivities of many birds and mammals are lacking. The uncertainties associated with this approach are considerable. First, because toxicity data are not available for most potential wildlife endpoint species, extrapolation of toxicity data from test species to the species of interest is required. There is no consensus on the most appropriate extrapolation method. Second, toxicity data are represented as statistical measures (e.g., NOAEL s or LOAELs) that provide no information on the nature or magnitude of effects. The level of effect is an artifact of the replication and dosing regime employed, and does not indicate how effects might increase with increasing exposure. Consequently, slight exceedance of a LOAEL is not distinguished from greatly exceeding it. Third, the relationship of toxic effects on individuals to effects on populations is poorly estimated by existing methods. It is assumed that if the exposure of individuals exceeds levels associated with impaired reproduction, then population level effects are likely. Uncertainty associated with this assumption is large because depending on the reproductive strategy of a given species, comparable levels of reproductive impairment may result in dramatically different population-level responses. This project included several tasks to address these problems: (1) investigation of the validity of the current allometric scaling approach for interspecies extrapolation

  1. Estimated population exposure from nuclear power production and other radiation sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pochin, E.E.

    1976-01-01

    Estimates are given of the total radiation dose from all forms of ionizing radiation resulting from nuclear power reduction. A power consumption of 1kW per head of population, derived entirely from nuclear energy, would increase the average radiation exposure of the whole population from 100mrem per year from natural sources (plus about 40mrem per year from medical procedures and other artificial causes) by about 6mrem per year. The genetically signifificant component of this increase would be about 4mrem per year. Available estimates of harm from radiation would indicate that this would give a risk per year per million of population of about 1 fatal induced malignancy, about the same number of malignancies fully treatable by operation, and, after many generations, about the same number of inherited defects, of greater or less severity, per year. Accidental injuries, particularly in constructional and mining work, would cause an estimated 1 fatality and 50 other accidents annually. Indications are given of the number of fatalities and accidents involved in equal power production by alternative methods, and of the value and limitations of such numerical comparisons in reaching decisions on the development of future power programmes

  2. Comparison of different methods to estimate BMR in adoloscent student population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patil, Suchitra R; Bharadwaj, Jyoti

    2011-01-01

    There is a growing clinical emphasis for the measurement of BMR and energy expenditure in clinical and research investigation such as obesity, exercise, cancer, under-nutrition, trauma and infections. Hence, there is a motivation towards calculating basal metabolic rate using standard equations. The objective of the present work is to identify an appropriate equation in Indian environment for the estimation of calorie needs and basal metabolic rate using the measured height, weight, age and skin fold parameters of an individual. Basal metabolic rates of adolescent male and female population aged between 17-20 years were estimated using equations proposed by FAO, ICMR, Cunningham, Harris Benedict, Fredrix and Miffin. Calorie needs were calculated using factorial approach which involves the multiplication of basal metabolic rate with appropriate physical activity factor. Basal metabolic rates estimated by FAO, Cunningham, Harris-Benedict, Fredrix and Miffin are reduced by 5%. These reduced basal metabolic rates and calorie needs are compared with that obtained by Cunningham's equation which is considered as accurate equation. Comparison of the basal metabolic rates and calorie needs obtained by Cunningham equation with all equations such as Harris-Benedict, FAO, Fredrix and Miffin after 5% reduction and ICMR equation without reduction indicates that Harris-Benedict, Fredrix, Miffin and FAO equations can be used for male and female adolescent populations for Indian environment. In conclusion, Harris-Benedict equation is an appropriate equation for both male and female adolescent population for Indian environment.

  3. Estimating the size of the homeless adolescent population across seven cities in Cambodia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lindsay Stark

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Government of Cambodia has committed to supporting family care for vulnerable children, including homeless populations. Collecting baseline data on the numbers and characteristics of homeless adolescents was prioritized to illuminate the scope of the issue, mobilize resources and direct the response. Methods Administrative zones across seven cities were purposively selected to cover the main urban areas known to have homeless populations in Cambodia. A complete enumeration of homeless individuals between the ages of 13 and 17 was attempted in the selected areas. In addition, a second independent count was conducted to enable a statistical estimation of completeness based on overlap across counts. This technique is known as capture-recapture. Adolescents were also interviewed about their schooling, health and other circumstances. Results After adjustment by the capture-recapture corrective multipliers (range: 3.53 -27.08, the study yielded an estimate of 2,697 13–17 year old homeless adolescents across all seven cities. The total number of homeless boys counted was significantly greater than homeless girls, especially in older ages. Conclusions To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first time capture-recapture methods have been applied to a homeless estimation of this scale in a resource-limited setting. Findings suggest the number of homeless adolescents in Cambodia is much greater than one would expect if relying on single count data alone and that this population faces many hardships.

  4. Estimating small area health-related characteristics of populations: a methodological review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Azizur Rahman

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Estimation of health-related characteristics at a fine local geographic level is vital for effective health promotion programmes, provision of better health services and population-specific health planning and management. Lack of a micro-dataset readily available for attributes of individuals at small areas negatively impacts the ability of local and national agencies to manage serious health issues and related risks in the community. A solution to this challenge would be to develop a method that simulates reliable small-area statistics. This paper provides a significant appraisal of the methodologies for estimating health-related characteristics of populations at geographical limited areas. Findings reveal that a range of methodologies are in use, which can be classified as three distinct set of approaches: i indirect standardisation and individual level modelling; ii multilevel statistical modelling; and iii micro-simulation modelling. Although each approach has its own strengths and weaknesses, it appears that microsimulation- based spatial models have significant robustness over the other methods and also represent a more precise means of estimating health-related population characteristics over small areas.

  5. Sampling Error in Relation to Cyst Nematode Population Density Estimation in Small Field Plots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Župunski, Vesna; Jevtić, Radivoje; Jokić, Vesna Spasić; Župunski, Ljubica; Lalošević, Mirjana; Ćirić, Mihajlo; Ćurčić, Živko

    2017-06-01

    Cyst nematodes are serious plant-parasitic pests which could cause severe yield losses and extensive damage. Since there is still very little information about error of population density estimation in small field plots, this study contributes to the broad issue of population density assessment. It was shown that there was no significant difference between cyst counts of five or seven bulk samples taken per each 1-m 2 plot, if average cyst count per examined plot exceeds 75 cysts per 100 g of soil. Goodness of fit of data to probability distribution tested with χ 2 test confirmed a negative binomial distribution of cyst counts for 21 out of 23 plots. The recommended measure of sampling precision of 17% expressed through coefficient of variation ( cv ) was achieved if the plots of 1 m 2 contaminated with more than 90 cysts per 100 g of soil were sampled with 10-core bulk samples taken in five repetitions. If plots were contaminated with less than 75 cysts per 100 g of soil, 10-core bulk samples taken in seven repetitions gave cv higher than 23%. This study indicates that more attention should be paid on estimation of sampling error in experimental field plots to ensure more reliable estimation of population density of cyst nematodes.

  6. Mourning dove population trend estimates from Call-Count and North American Breeding Bird Surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, J.R.; Dolton, D.D.; Droege, S.

    1994-01-01

    The mourning dove (Zenaida macroura) Callcount Survey and the North American Breeding Bird Survey provide information on population trends of mourning doves throughout the continental United States. Because surveys are an integral part of the development of hunting regulations, a need exists to determine which survey provides precise information. We estimated population trends from 1966 to 1988 by state and dove management unit, and assessed the relative efficiency of each survey. Estimates of population trend differ (P lt 0.05) between surveys in 11 of 48 states; 9 of 11 states with divergent results occur in the Eastern Management Unit. Differences were probably a consequence of smaller sample sizes in the Callcount Survey. The Breeding Bird Survey generally provided trend estimates with smaller variances than did the Callcount Survey. Although the Callcount Survey probably provides more withinroute accuracy because of survey methods and timing, the Breeding Bird Survey has a larger sample size of survey routes and greater consistency of coverage in the Eastern Unit.

  7. A new approach on seismic mortality estimations based on average population density

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Xiaoxin; Sun, Baiqing; Jin, Zhanyong

    2016-12-01

    This study examines a new methodology to predict the final seismic mortality from earthquakes in China. Most studies established the association between mortality estimation and seismic intensity without considering the population density. In China, however, the data are not always available, especially when it comes to the very urgent relief situation in the disaster. And the population density varies greatly from region to region. This motivates the development of empirical models that use historical death data to provide the path to analyze the death tolls for earthquakes. The present paper employs the average population density to predict the final death tolls in earthquakes using a case-based reasoning model from realistic perspective. To validate the forecasting results, historical data from 18 large-scale earthquakes occurred in China are used to estimate the seismic morality of each case. And a typical earthquake case occurred in the northwest of Sichuan Province is employed to demonstrate the estimation of final death toll. The strength of this paper is that it provides scientific methods with overall forecast errors lower than 20 %, and opens the door for conducting final death forecasts with a qualitative and quantitative approach. Limitations and future research are also analyzed and discussed in the conclusion.

  8. Estimated collective effective dose to the population from nuclear medicine examinations in Slovenia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skrk, Damijan; Zontar, Dejan

    2013-01-01

    A national survey of patient exposure from nuclear medicine diagnostic procedures was performed by Slovenian Radiation Protection Administration in order to estimate their contribution to the collective effective dose to the population of Slovenia. A set of 36 examinations with the highest contributions to the collective effective dose was identified. Data about frequencies and average administered activities of radioisotopes used for those examinations were collected from all nuclear medicine departments in Slovenia. A collective effective dose to the population and an effective dose per capita were estimated from the collected data using dose conversion factors. The total collective effective dose to the population from nuclear medicine diagnostic procedures in 2011 was estimated to 102 manSv, giving an effective dose per capita of 0.05 mSv. The comparison of results of this study with studies performed in other countries indicates that the nuclear medicine providers in Slovenia are well aware of the importance of patient protection measures and of optimisation of procedures

  9. Estimation of genetic structure of a Mycosphaerella musicola population using inter-simple sequence repeat markers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peixouto, Y S; Dórea Bragança, C A; Andrade, W B; Ferreira, C F; Haddad, F; Oliveira, S A S; Darosci Brito, F S; Miller, R N G; Amorim, E P

    2015-07-17

    Among the diseases affecting banana (Musa sp), yellow Sigatoka, caused by the fungal pathogen Mycosphaerella musicola Leach, is considered one of the most important in Brazil, causing losses throughout the year. Understanding the genetic structure of pathogen populations will provide insight into the life history of pathogens, including the evolutionary processes occurring in agrosystems. Tools for estimating the possible emergence of pathogen variants with altered pathogenicity, virulence, or aggressiveness, as well as resistance to systemic fungicides, can also be developed from such data. The objective of this study was to analyze the genetic diversity and population genetics of M. musicola in the main banana-producing regions in Brazil. A total of 83 isolates collected from different banana cultivars in the Brazilian states of Bahia, Rio Grande do Norte, and Minas Gerais were evaluated using inter-simple sequence repeat markers. High variability was detected between the isolates, and 85.5% of the haplotypes were singletons in the populations. The highest source of genetic diversity (97.22%) was attributed to variations within populations. Bayesian cluster analysis revealed the presence of 2 probable ancestral groups, however, showed no relationship to population structure in terms of collection site, state of origin, or cultivar. Similarly, we detected noevidence of genetic recombination between individuals within different states, indicating that asexual cycles play a major role in M. musicola reproduction and that long-distance dispersal of the pathogen is the main factor contributing to the lack of population structure in the fungus.

  10. Estimates of population genetic diversity in brown bullhead catfish by DNA fingerprinting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roth, A.C.; Wessendarp, T.K.; Gordon, D.A.; Smith, M.K. [Environmental Protection Agency, Cincinnati, OH (United States); Lattier, D.L. [Oak Ridge Inst. for Science and Education, Cincinnati, OH (United States); Hertzberg, V.; Leonard, A. [Univ. of Cincinnati, OH (United States). Dept. of Environmental Health

    1994-12-31

    Estimates of population genetic diversity may be a sensitive indicator of environmental impact, since limiting the effective breeding population by any means will result in loss of some variant genotypes, as has been demonstrated by allozyme analysis. DNA fingerprinting techniques are also coming into use for population analyses, and the authors chose to apply fingerprinting analysis three populations of brown bullhead catfish collected in Northern Ohio. DNA was isolated from the red blood cells of individual fish. Purified DNAs were digested with EcoR1 restriction enzyme; the digests were then sized on a 1% agarose gel, transferred to nylon membranes and probed with a radiolabeled M13 probe using the Westneat hybridization protocol (Southern blotting). This method effects fragments containing VNTR (variable number of tandem repeat) sequences complementary to the M13, which are highly variable among individual catfish. Hybridized bands were visualized by a Molecular Dynamics phosphorimager and recorded and analyzed with its proprietary Imagequant image analysis program, Excel and SAS. A total of 10 variable bands were identified and their presence or absence scored in each individual. These data were analyzed to determine between and within-population similarity indices as well as population heterozygosity and genetic diversity measures.

  11. Evaluating estimators for numbers of females with cubs-of-the-year in the Yellowstone grizzly bear population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherry, S.; White, G.C.; Keating, K.A.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Schwartz, Charles C.

    2007-01-01

    Current management of the grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) population in Yellowstone National Park and surrounding areas requires annual estimation of the number of adult female bears with cubs-of-the-year. We examined the performance of nine estimators of population size via simulation. Data were simulated using two methods for different combinations of population size, sample size, and coefficient of variation of individual sighting probabilities. We show that the coefficient of variation does not, by itself, adequately describe the effects of capture heterogeneity, because two different distributions of capture probabilities can have the same coefficient of variation. All estimators produced biased estimates of population size with bias decreasing as effort increased. Based on the simulation results we recommend the Chao estimator for model M h be used to estimate the number of female bears with cubs of the year; however, the estimator of Chao and Shen may also be useful depending on the goals of the research.

  12. Population size estimation in Yellowstone wolves with error-prone noninvasive microsatellite genotypes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creel, Scott; Spong, Goran; Sands, Jennifer L; Rotella, Jay; Zeigle, Janet; Joe, Lawrence; Murphy, Kerry M; Smith, Douglas

    2003-07-01

    Determining population sizes can be difficult, but is essential for conservation. By counting distinct microsatellite genotypes, DNA from noninvasive samples (hair, faeces) allows estimation of population size. Problems arise because genotypes from noninvasive samples are error-prone, but genotyping errors can be reduced by multiple polymerase chain reaction (PCR). For faecal genotypes from wolves in Yellowstone National Park, error rates varied substantially among samples, often above the 'worst-case threshold' suggested by simulation. Consequently, a substantial proportion of multilocus genotypes held one or more errors, despite multiple PCR. These genotyping errors created several genotypes per individual and caused overestimation (up to 5.5-fold) of population size. We propose a 'matching approach' to eliminate this overestimation bias.

  13. Fast admixture analysis and population tree estimation for SNP and NGS data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cheng, Jade Yu; Mailund, Thomas; Nielsen, Rasmus

    2017-01-01

    assumption for identifying ancestry components correctly and for inferring the correct tree. In most cases, ancestry components are inferred correctly, although sample sizes and times since admixture can influence the results. We show that the popular Gaussian approximation tends to perform poorly under......-calling associated with Next Generation Sequencing (NGS) data. We also present a new method for estimating population trees from ancestry components using a Gaussian approximation. Using coalescence simulations of diverging populations, we explore the adequacy of the STRUCTURE-style models and the Gaussian...... extreme divergence scenarios e.g. with very long branch lengths, but the topologies of the population trees are accurately inferred in all scenarios explored. The new methods are implemented together with appropriate visualization tools in the software package Ohana....

  14. Development of a practical modeling framework for estimating the impact of wind technology on bird populations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morrison, M.L. [California State Univ., Sacramento, CA (United States); Pollock, K.H. [North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC (United States)

    1997-11-01

    One of the most pressing environmental concerns related to wind project development is the potential for avian fatalities caused by the turbines. The goal of this project is to develop a useful, practical modeling framework for evaluating potential wind power plant impacts that can be generalized to most bird species. This modeling framework could be used to get a preliminary understanding of the likelihood of significant impacts to birds, in a cost-effective way. The authors accomplish this by (1) reviewing the major factors that can influence the persistence of a wild population; (2) briefly reviewing various models that can aid in estimating population status and trend, including methods of evaluating model structure and performance; (3) reviewing survivorship and population projections; and (4) developing a framework for using models to evaluate the potential impacts of wind development on birds.

  15. Development of a practical modeling framework for estimating the impact of wind technology on bird populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morrison, M.L.; Pollock, K.H.

    1997-11-01

    One of the most pressing environmental concerns related to wind project development is the potential for avian fatalities caused by the turbines. The goal of this project is to develop a useful, practical modeling framework for evaluating potential wind power plant impacts that can be generalized to most bird species. This modeling framework could be used to get a preliminary understanding of the likelihood of significant impacts to birds, in a cost-effective way. The authors accomplish this by (1) reviewing the major factors that can influence the persistence of a wild population; (2) briefly reviewing various models that can aid in estimating population status and trend, including methods of evaluating model structure and performance; (3) reviewing survivorship and population projections; and (4) developing a framework for using models to evaluate the potential impacts of wind development on birds

  16. Estimating population density and connectivity of American mink using spatial capture-recapture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuller, Angela K; Sutherland, Chris S; Royle, J Andrew; Hare, Matthew P

    2016-06-01

    Estimating the abundance or density of populations is fundamental to the conservation and management of species, and as landscapes become more fragmented, maintaining landscape connectivity has become one of the most important challenges for biodiversity conservation. Yet these two issues have never been formally integrated together in a model that simultaneously models abundance while accounting for connectivity of a landscape. We demonstrate an application of using capture-recapture to develop a model of animal density using a least-cost path model for individual encounter probability that accounts for non-Euclidean connectivity in a highly structured network. We utilized scat detection dogs (Canis lupus familiaris) as a means of collecting non-invasive genetic samples of American mink (Neovison vison) individuals and used spatial capture-recapture models (SCR) to gain inferences about mink population density and connectivity. Density of mink was not constant across the landscape, but rather increased with increasing distance from city, town, or village centers, and mink activity was associated with water. The SCR model allowed us to estimate the density and spatial distribution of individuals across a 388 km² area. The model was used to investigate patterns of space usage and to evaluate covariate effects on encounter probabilities, including differences between sexes. This study provides an application of capture-recapture models based on ecological distance, allowing us to directly estimate landscape connectivity. This approach should be widely applicable to provide simultaneous direct estimates of density, space usage, and landscape connectivity for many species.

  17. Estimating population density and connectivity of American mink using spatial capture-recapture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuller, Angela K.; Sutherland, Christopher S.; Royle, Andy; Hare, Matthew P.

    2016-01-01

    Estimating the abundance or density of populations is fundamental to the conservation and management of species, and as landscapes become more fragmented, maintaining landscape connectivity has become one of the most important challenges for biodiversity conservation. Yet these two issues have never been formally integrated together in a model that simultaneously models abundance while accounting for connectivity of a landscape. We demonstrate an application of using capture–recapture to develop a model of animal density using a least-cost path model for individual encounter probability that accounts for non-Euclidean connectivity in a highly structured network. We utilized scat detection dogs (Canis lupus familiaris) as a means of collecting non-invasive genetic samples of American mink (Neovison vison) individuals and used spatial capture–recapture models (SCR) to gain inferences about mink population density and connectivity. Density of mink was not constant across the landscape, but rather increased with increasing distance from city, town, or village centers, and mink activity was associated with water. The SCR model allowed us to estimate the density and spatial distribution of individuals across a 388 km2 area. The model was used to investigate patterns of space usage and to evaluate covariate effects on encounter probabilities, including differences between sexes. This study provides an application of capture–recapture models based on ecological distance, allowing us to directly estimate landscape connectivity. This approach should be widely applicable to provide simultaneous direct estimates of density, space usage, and landscape connectivity for many species.

  18. Estimated collective effective dose to the population from radiological examinations in Slovenia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zontar, Dejan; Zdesar, Urban; Kuhelj, Dimitrij; Pekarovic, Dean; Skrk, Damijan

    2015-01-01

    Background The aim of the study was to systematically evaluate population exposure from diagnostic and interventional radiological procedures in Slovenia. Methods The study was conducted in scope of the “Dose Datamed 2” project. A standard methodology based on 20 selected radiological procedures was adopted. Frequencies of the procedures were determined via questionnaires that were sent to all providers of radiological procedures while data about patient exposure per procedure were collected from existing databases. Collective effective dose to the population and effective dose per capita were estimated from the collected data (DLP for CT, MGD for mammography and DAP for other procedures) using dose conversion factors. Results The total collective effective dose to the population from radiological in 2011 was estimated to 1300 manSv and an effective dose per capita to 0.6 mSv of which approximately 2/3 are due to CT procedures. Conclusions The first systematic study of population exposure to ionising radiation from radiological procedures in Slovenia was performed. The results show that the exposure in Slovenia is under the European average. It confirmed large contributions of computed tomography and interventional procedures, identifying them as the areas that deserve special attention when it comes to justification and optimisation. PMID:25810709

  19. Use of flow cytometry for high-throughput cell population estimates in fixed brain tissue

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicole A Young

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The numbers and types of cells in an area of cortex define its function. Therefore it is essential to characterize the numbers and distributions of total cells in areas of the cortex, as well as to identify numbers of subclasses of neurons and glial cells. To date, the large size of the primate brain and the lack of innovation in cell counting methods have been a roadblock to obtaining high-resolution maps of cell and neuron density across the cortex in humans and non-human primates. Stereological counting methods and the isotropic fractionator are valuable tools for estimating cell numbers, but are better suited to smaller, well-defined brain structures or to cortex as a whole. In the present study, we have extended our flow-cytometry based counting method, the flow fractionator (Collins et al., 2010a, to include high-throughput total cell population estimates in homogenized cortical samples. We demonstrate that our method produces consistent, accurate and repeatable cell estimates quickly. The estimates we report are in excellent agreement with estimates for the same samples obtained using a Neubauer chamber and a fluorescence microscope. We show that our flow cytometry-based method for total cell estimation in homogenized brain tissue is more efficient and more precise than manual counting methods. The addition of automated nuclei counting to our flow fractionator method allows for a fully automated, rapid characterization of total cells and neuronal and non-neuronal populations in human and non-human primate brains, providing valuable data to further our understanding of the functional organization of normal, aging and diseased brains.

  20. Estimating demographic parameters from large-scale population genomic data using Approximate Bayesian Computation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Sen

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC approach has been used to infer demographic parameters for numerous species, including humans. However, most applications of ABC still use limited amounts of data, from a small number of loci, compared to the large amount of genome-wide population-genetic data which have become available in the last few years. Results We evaluated the performance of the ABC approach for three 'population divergence' models - similar to the 'isolation with migration' model - when the data consists of several hundred thousand SNPs typed for multiple individuals by simulating data from known demographic models. The ABC approach was used to infer demographic parameters of interest and we compared the inferred values to the true parameter values that was used to generate hypothetical "observed" data. For all three case models, the ABC approach inferred most demographic parameters quite well with narrow credible intervals, for example, population divergence times and past population sizes, but some parameters were more difficult to infer, such as population sizes at present and migration rates. We compared the ability of different summary statistics to infer demographic parameters, including haplotype and LD based statistics, and found that the accuracy of the parameter estimates can be improved by combining summary statistics that capture different parts of information in the data. Furthermore, our results suggest that poor choices of prior distributions can in some circumstances be detected using ABC. Finally, increasing the amount of data beyond some hundred loci will substantially improve the accuracy of many parameter estimates using ABC. Conclusions We conclude that the ABC approach can accommodate realistic genome-wide population genetic data, which may be difficult to analyze with full likelihood approaches, and that the ABC can provide accurate and precise inference of demographic parameters from

  1. A Class of Estimators for Finite Population Mean in Double Sampling under Nonresponse Using Fractional Raw Moments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manzoor Khan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents new classes of estimators in estimating the finite population mean under double sampling in the presence of nonresponse when using information on fractional raw moments. The expressions for mean square error of the proposed classes of estimators are derived up to the first degree of approximation. It is shown that a proposed class of estimators performs better than the usual mean estimator, ratio type estimators, and Singh and Kumar (2009 estimator. An empirical study is carried out to demonstrate the performance of a proposed class of estimators.

  2. Logo-od: The applicability of Logotherapy as an organisation development intervention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel H. Burger

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available the study investigated the relationship between “resistance to or readiness for change” (ror-change and “meaning seeking”, and whether a logotherapy-based intervention – Logo-OD – would impact on resistance to change. A quasi-experimental design and various statistical procedures were applied to test formulated hypotheses. of a survey population of 1 637 individuals, 193 and 76 respondents formed part of the pre- and post-test samples respectively. Whereas a signifcant relationship was established between said constructs, no signifcant effect of Logo-OD was observed. These results supported the primary conclusions emanating from the literature: the role of logo-oD is one of a positive trigger event for organisational change.

  3. Accuracy of height estimation and tidal volume setting using anthropometric formulas in an ICU Caucasian population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    L'her, Erwan; Martin-Babau, Jérôme; Lellouche, François

    2016-12-01

    Knowledge of patients' height is essential for daily practice in the intensive care unit. However, actual height measurements are unavailable on a daily routine in the ICU and measured height in the supine position and/or visual estimates may lack consistency. Clinicians do need simple and rapid methods to estimate the patients' height, especially in short height and/or obese patients. The objectives of the study were to evaluate several anthropometric formulas for height estimation on healthy volunteers and to test whether several of these estimates will help tidal volume setting in ICU patients. This was a prospective, observational study in a medical intensive care unit of a university hospital. During the first phase of the study, eight limb measurements were performed on 60 healthy volunteers and 18 height estimation formulas were tested. During the second phase, four height estimates were performed on 60 consecutive ICU patients under mechanical ventilation. In the 60 healthy volunteers, actual height was well correlated with the gold standard, measured height in the erect position. Correlation was low between actual and calculated height, using the hand's length and width, the index, or the foot equations. The Chumlea method and its simplified version, performed in the supine position, provided adequate estimates. In the 60 ICU patients, calculated height using the simplified Chumlea method was well correlated with measured height (r = 0.78; ∂ ventilation, alternative anthropometric methods to obtain patient's height based on lower leg and on forearm measurements could be useful to facilitate the application of protective mechanical ventilation in a Caucasian ICU population. The simplified Chumlea method is easy to achieve in a bed-ridden patient and provides accurate height estimates, with a low bias.

  4. Crossed beam studies of O-+D2→OD-+D

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, S.G.; Kremer, L.N.; Metral, C.J.; Cross, R.J.

    1978-01-01

    Using the crossed-beam machine EVA we have measured the product angular and energy distributions of the reaction O - +D 2 →OD - +D in the relative energy range of 1.2-4.7 eV (5.7-23.1 eV LAB). Below 2.5 eV the product distribution is centered about the center of mass, indicating a long-lived complex. Above 2.5 eV the distribution slowly moves forward. Most of the available energy goes into internal energy of the products

  5. Integrating citizen-science data with movement models to estimate the size of a migratory golden eagle population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew J. Dennhardt; Adam E. Duerr; David Brandes; Todd E. Katzner

    2015-01-01

    Estimating population size is fundamental to conservation and management. Population size is typically estimated using survey data, computer models, or both. Some of the most extensive and often least expensive survey data are those collected by citizen-scientists. A challenge to citizen-scientists is that the vagility of many organisms can complicate data collection....

  6. Population based estimates of non-fatal injuries in the capital of Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saadat, Soheil; Mafi, Mostafa; Sharif-Alhoseini, Mahdi

    2011-07-31

    Fatal injuries are at the top of the injury pyramid; however, non-fatal injuries are quite common and impose huge medical expenses on the population. Relying on hospital data will underestimate the incidence of non-fatal injuries. The aim of this study was to estimate the annual incidence and out of pocket medical expenses of all injuries in urban population of Tehran (the capital city of Iran). Using the cluster random sampling approach, a household survey of residents of greater Tehran was performed on April 2008. At randomly selected residential locations, interviewers asked one adult person to report all injuries which have occurred during the past year for all household members, as well as the type of injury, place of occurrence, the activity, cause of accidents resulting in injuries, the amount of out of pocket medical expenses for injury, and whether they referred to hospital. This study included 2,450 households residing in Tehran during 2007-8. The annual incidence of all injuries was 188.7 (180.7-196.9), significant injuries needing any medical care was 68.8 (63.7-74.2), fractures was 19.3 (16.6 - 22.4), and injuries resulted in hospitalization was 16.7 (14.2 - 19.6) per 1000 population. The annual incidence of fatal injuries was 33 (7-96) per 100,000 Population. In children aged 15 or less, the annual incidence of all injuries was 137.2 (120.0 - 155.9), significant injuries needing any medical care was 64.2 (52.2 - 78.0), fractures was 21.8 (15.0 - 30.7), and injuries resulted in hospitalization was 6.8 (3.3 - 12.5) per 1000 population. The mean out of pocket medical expense for injuries was 19.9 USD. This population based study showed that the real incidence of non-fatal injuries in the capital of Iran is more than the formal hospital-based estimates. These injuries impose non trivial medical and indirect cost on the community. The out of pocket medical expense of non-fatal injuries to Tehran population is estimated as 27 million USD per year. Effective

  7. Estimating population exposure to power plant emissions using CALPUFF: a case study in Beijing, China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ying Zhou; Levy, J.I. [Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA (United States); Hammitt, J.K.; Evans, J.S. [Harvard Center for Risk Analysis, Boston, MA (United States)

    2003-02-01

    Epidemiological studies have shown a significant association between ambient particulate matter (PM) exposures and increased mortality and morbidity risk. Power plants are significant emitters of precursor gases of fine particulate matter. To evaluate the public health risk posed by power plants, it is necessary to evaluate population exposure to different pollutants. The concept of intake fraction (the fraction of a pollutant emitted that is eventually inhaled or ingested by a population) has been proposed to provide a simple summary measure of the relationship between emissions and exposure. Currently available intake fraction estimates from developing countries used models that look only at the near field impacts, which may not capture the full impact of a pollution source. This case study demonstrated how the intake fraction of power plant emissions in China can be calculated using a detailed long-range atmospheric dispersion model-CALPUFF. We found that the intake fraction of primary fine particles is roughly on the order of 10{sup -5}, while the intake fractions of sulfur dioxide, sulfate and nitrate are on the order of 10{sup -6}. These estimates are an order of magnitude higher than the US estimates. We also tested how sensitive the results were to key assumptions within the model. The size distribution of primary particles has a large impact on the intake fraction for primary particles while the background ammonia concentration is an important factor influencing the intake fraction of nitrate. The background ozone concentration has a moderate impact on the intake fraction of sulfate and nitrate. Our analysis shows that this approach is applicable to a developing country and it provides reasonable population exposure estimates. (author)

  8. Factors Affecting Community Participation in O and OD Planning ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Factors Affecting Community Participation in O and OD Planning and ... great success at start but later dropped in number of cattle taken for dipping. ... and to establish the measures taken by the district leadership in addressing the problems.

  9. Mechanical behaviour of ferritic ODS steels - Temperature dependancy and history

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Fournier, B.; Steckmeyer, A.; Rouffié, A.-L.; Malaplate, J.; Garnier, J.; Ratti, M.; Wident, P.; Ziolek, L.; Tournie, I.; Rabeau, V.; Gentzbittel, J.M.; Kruml, Tomáš; Kuběna, Ivo

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 430, 1-3 (2012), s. 142-149 ISSN 0022-3115 Institutional support: RVO:68081723 Keywords : ODS steels * fatigue * fracture mechanics Subject RIV: JL - Materials Fatigue, Friction Mechanics Impact factor: 1.211, year: 2012

  10. Estimating average alcohol consumption in the population using multiple sources: the case of Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sordo, Luis; Barrio, Gregorio; Bravo, María J; Villalbí, Joan R; Espelt, Albert; Neira, Montserrat; Regidor, Enrique

    2016-01-01

    National estimates on per capita alcohol consumption are provided regularly by various sources and may have validity problems, so corrections are needed for monitoring and assessment purposes. Our objectives were to compare different alcohol availability estimates for Spain, to build the best estimate (actual consumption), characterize its time trend during 2001-2011, and quantify the extent to which other estimates (coverage) approximated actual consumption. Estimates were: alcohol availability from the Spanish Tax Agency (Tax Agency availability), World Health Organization (WHO availability) and other international agencies, self-reported purchases from the Spanish Food Consumption Panel, and self-reported consumption from population surveys. Analyses included calculating: between-agency discrepancy in availability, multisource availability (correcting Tax Agency availability by underestimation of wine and cider), actual consumption (adjusting multisource availability by unrecorded alcohol consumption/purchases and alcohol losses), and coverage of selected estimates. Sensitivity analyses were undertaken. Time trends were characterized by joinpoint regression. Between-agency discrepancy in alcohol availability remained high in 2011, mainly because of wine and spirits, although some decrease was observed during the study period. The actual consumption was 9.5 l of pure alcohol/person-year in 2011, decreasing 2.3 % annually, mainly due to wine and spirits. 2011 coverage of WHO availability, Tax Agency availability, self-reported purchases, and self-reported consumption was 99.5, 99.5, 66.3, and 28.0 %, respectively, generally with downward trends (last three estimates, especially self-reported consumption). The multisource availability overestimated actual consumption by 12.3 %, mainly due to tourism imbalance. Spanish estimates of per capita alcohol consumption show considerable weaknesses. Using uncorrected estimates, especially self-reported consumption, for

  11. Estimating disperser abundance using open population models that incorporate data from continuous detection PIT arrays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dzul, Maria C.; Yackulic, Charles B.; Korman, Josh

    2017-01-01

    Autonomous passive integrated transponder (PIT) tag antenna systems continuously detect individually marked organisms at one or more fixed points over long time periods. Estimating abundance using data from autonomous antennae can be challenging, because these systems do not detect unmarked individuals. Here we pair PIT antennae data from a tributary with mark-recapture sampling data in a mainstem river to estimate the number of fish moving from the mainstem to the tributary. We then use our model to estimate abundance of non-native rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss that move from the Colorado River to the Little Colorado River (LCR), the latter of which is important spawning and rearing habitat for federally-endangered humpback chub Gila cypha. We estimate 226 rainbow trout (95% CI: 127-370) entered the LCR from October 2013-April 2014. We discuss the challenges of incorporating detections from autonomous PIT antenna systems into mark-recapture population models, particularly in regards to using information about spatial location to estimate movement and detection probabilities.

  12. Estimation of population pharmacokinetic parameters of saquinavir in HIV patients with the MONOLIX software.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavielle, Marc; Mentré, France

    2007-04-01

    In nonlinear mixed-effects models, estimation methods based on a linearization of the likelihood are widely used although they have several methodological drawbacks. Kuhn and Lavielle (Comput. Statist. Data Anal. 49:1020-1038 (2005)) developed an estimation method which combines the SAEM (Stochastic Approximation EM) algorithm, with a MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) procedure for maximum likelihood estimation in nonlinear mixed-effects models without linearization. This method is implemented in the Matlab software MONOLIX which is available at http://www.math.u-psud.fr/~lavielle/monolix/logiciels. In this paper we apply MONOLIX to the analysis of the pharmacokinetics of saquinavir, a protease inhibitor, from concentrations measured after single dose administration in 100 HIV patients, some with advance disease. We also illustrate how to use MONOLIX to build the covariate model using the Bayesian Information Criterion. Saquinavir oral clearance (CL/F) was estimated to be 1.26 L/h and to increase with body mass index, the inter-patient variability for CL/F being 120%. Several methodological developments are ongoing to extend SAEM which is a very promising estimation method for population pharmacockinetic/pharmacodynamic analyses.

  13. Oxide Evolution in ODS Steel Resulting From Friction Stir Welding

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-01

    the SZ on both the AS and RS of 304L stainless steel , from [16]. ...........................................12  Figure 7.  Past research conditions...being done on void swelling and embrittlement effects. Reduced activation ferritic/ martensitic (RAFM) steels and oxide dispersion strengthened (ODS...growth by grain boundary pinning at higher temperatures. Another type of ODS steel is 9-Cr martensitic steel , which is not considered in this research

  14. Photodissociation of the OD radical at 226 and 243 nm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Radenovic, Dragana C.; Roij, Andre J.A. van; Chestakov, Dmitri A.; Eppink, Andre T.J.B.; Meulen, J.J. ter; Parker, David H.; Loo, Mark P.J. van der; Groenenboom, Gerrit C.; Greenslade, Margaret E.; Lester, Marsha I.

    2003-01-01

    The photodissociation dynamics of state selected OD radicals has been examined at 243 and 226 nm using velocity map imaging to probe the angle-speed distributions of the D( 2 S) and O( 3 P 2 ) products. Both experiment and complementary first principle calculations demonstrate that photodissociation occurs by promotion of OD from high vibrational levels of the ground X 2 Π state to the repulsive 1 2 Σ - state

  15. High yttria ferritic ODS steels through powder forging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kumar, Deepak [Department of Metallurgical and Materials Engineering, I.I.T-Roorkee, Uttarakhand 247667 (India); Prakash, Ujjwal, E-mail: ujwalfmt@iitr.ac.in [Department of Metallurgical and Materials Engineering, I.I.T-Roorkee, Uttarakhand 247667 (India); Dabhade, Vikram V. [Department of Metallurgical and Materials Engineering, I.I.T-Roorkee, Uttarakhand 247667 (India); Laha, K.; Sakthivel, T. [Mechanical Metallurgy Group, IGCAR, Kalpakkam, Tamilnadu 603102 (India)

    2017-05-15

    Oxide dispersion strengthened (ODS) steels are being developed for future nuclear reactors. ODS Fe-18%Cr-2%W-0.2%Ti steels with 0, 0.35, 0.5, 1 and 1.5% Y{sub 2}O{sub 3} (all compositions in weight%) dispersion were fabricated by mechanical alloying of elemental powders. The powders were placed in a mild steel can and forged in a stream of hydrogen gas at 1473 K. The steels were forged again to final density. The strength of ODS steel increased with yttria content. Though this was accompanied by a decrease in tensile elongation, all the steels showed significant ductility. The ductility in high yttria alloys may be attributed to improved inter-particle bonding between milled powders due to reduction of surface oxides by hydrogen. This may permit development of ODS steels with yttria contents higher than the conventional limit of 0.5%. It is suggested that powder forging is a promising route to fabricate ODS steels with high yttria contents and improved ductility. - Highlights: •ODS steels with yttria contents beyond the conventional limit of 0.5 wt% were fabricated by powder forging in a hydrogen atmosphere. •All the alloys exhibited significant ductility. •This may be attributed to improved inter-particle bonding due to reduction of surface oxides by hydrogen. •Strength in excess of 300 MPa was obtained at 973 K for 0.5%, 1% and 1.5% yttria ODS alloys. •Powder forging is a promising route to fabricate ODS steels and permits development of compositions with up to 1.5% yttria.

  16. Estimation of sex from the anthropometric ear measurements of a Sudanese population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, Altayeb Abdalla; Omer, Nosyba

    2015-09-01

    The external ear and its prints have multifaceted roles in medico-legal practice, e.g., identification and facial reconstruction. Furthermore, its norms are essential in the diagnosis of congenital anomalies and the design of hearing aids. Body part dimensions vary in different ethnic groups, so the most accurate statistical estimations of biological attributes are developed using population-specific standards. Sudan lacks comprehensive data about ear norms; moreover, there is a universal rarity in assessing the possibility of sex estimation from ear dimensions using robust statistical techniques. Therefore, this study attempts to establish data for normal adult Sudanese Arabs, assessing the existence of asymmetry and developing a population-specific equation for sex estimation. The study sample comprised 200 healthy Sudanese Arab volunteers (100 males and 100 females) in the age range of 18-30years. The physiognomic ear length and width, lobule length and width, and conchal length and width measurements were obtained by direct anthropometry, using a digital sliding caliper. Moreover, indices and asymmetry were assessed. Data were analyzed using basic descriptive statistics and discriminant function analyses employing jackknife validations of classification results. All linear dimensions used were sexually dimorphic except lobular lengths. Some of the variables and indices show asymmetry. Ear dimensions showed cross-validated sex classification accuracy ranging between 60.5% and 72%. Hence, the ear measurements cannot be used as an effective tool in the estimation of sex. However, in the absence of other more reliable means, it still can be considered a supportive trait in sex estimation. Further, asymmetry should be considered in identification from the ear measurements. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Analytic Investigation Into Effect of Population Heterogeneity on Parameter Ratio Estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schinkel, Colleen; Carlone, Marco; Warkentin, Brad; Fallone, B. Gino

    2007-01-01

    Purpose: A homogeneous tumor control probability (TCP) model has previously been used to estimate the α/β ratio for prostate cancer from clinical dose-response data. For the ratio to be meaningful, it must be assumed that parameter ratios are not sensitive to the type of tumor control model used. We investigated the validity of this assumption by deriving analytic relationships between the α/β estimates from a homogeneous TCP model, ignoring interpatient heterogeneity, and those of the corresponding heterogeneous (population-averaged) model that incorporated heterogeneity. Methods and Materials: The homogeneous and heterogeneous TCP models can both be written in terms of the geometric parameters D 50 and γ 50 . We show that the functional forms of these models are similar. This similarity was used to develop an expression relating the homogeneous and heterogeneous estimates for the α/β ratio. The expression was verified numerically by generating pseudo-data from a TCP curve with known parameters and then using the homogeneous and heterogeneous TCP models to estimate the α/β ratio for the pseudo-data. Results: When the dominant form of interpatient heterogeneity is that of radiosensitivity, the homogeneous and heterogeneous α/β estimates differ. This indicates that the presence of this heterogeneity affects the value of the α/β ratio derived from analysis of TCP curves. Conclusions: The α/β ratio estimated from clinical dose-response data is model dependent-a heterogeneous TCP model that accounts for heterogeneity in radiosensitivity will produce a greater α/β estimate than that resulting from a homogeneous TCP model

  18. The estimation of Adonis vernalis populations in chosen patches of Lublin Upland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bożena Denisow

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The number of Adonis vernalis populations, their size and abundance in xerothermic communities of the Lublin Upland have decreased significantly in the last 40-50 years, which indicates that there is a real risk of species extinction in the studied area. The paper is an attempt to indicate the possible factors which influence the decrease of Adonis vernalis populations. Detailed studies were carried out in six sites differing habitat conditions, land use and the size of Adonis vernalis populations. Observations were made of the abundance of blooming and the number of anthers per flower. The ability for reproduction was estimated indirectly by the mass of pollen delivered and its biological value. The populations of Adonis vernalis differ in number of anthers per flower (94.4 - 131.5, on average, the mass of pollen delivered (0.83 mg - 3.18 mg per 100 anthers, on average, the biological value of pollen and the size of pollen grains. Generally, stronger populations were characterized by better quality and a higher quantity of pollen. Potential energy of pollen in flowers from Pliszczyn and Łabunie was 69-72%, compared to 36%-47% in the remaining populations. Grass burning did not cause a reduction of potential biological value of Adonis vernalis pollen. Xerothermic swards in Pliszczyn and Kąty regularly burnt developed strong, most abundant populations of Adonis vernalis with favorable pollen. The development of the shrub layer, if it is out of control, stands in the way of satisfactory reproduction of halophilous Adonis vernalis.

  19. Estimation of population doses from diagnostic medical examinations in Japan, 1974. II. Estimation of genetically significant dose

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hashizume, T; Maruyama, T; Kumamoto, Y [National Inst. of Radiological Sciences, Chiba (Japan)

    1976-03-01

    The genetically significant dose from radiographic and fluoroscopic examination in Japan has been estimated based on a 1974 nation wide survey of randomly sampled hospitals and clinics. The gonad dose during x-ray diagnosis was determined with an ionization chamber placed at the positions of ovary and testis in a Rando phantom. The instrumented phantom was irradiated with medical diagnostic x-rays on the basis of the exposure data on the patients selected in the nation wide survey. In the calculation of the genetically significant dose, the child expectancy of the patients that undergo each particular type of examination was assumed to be same as that of the general population. The resultant genetically significant dose was 11.1 and 5.43 mrad per person per year for radiography and fluoroscopy, respectively. These values were compared with those of 1960 and 1969. Though the number of examinations per year shows a yearly increase, the genetically significant dose is gradually on the decrease. This may be due to technical improvements in medical radiological practices.

  20. Estimating population exposure to power plant emissions using CALPUFF: a case study in Beijing, China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Y.; Levy, J.I.; Hammitt, J.K.; Evans, J.S. [Harvard University, Boston, MA (USA). School of Public Health, Landmark Center

    2003-02-01

    Power plants are significant emitters of precursor gases of fine particulate matter. To evaluate the public health risk posed by power plants, it is necessary to evaluate population exposure to different pollutants. The concept of intake fraction (the fraction of a pollutant emitted that is eventually inhaled or ingested by a population) has been proposed to provide a simple summary measure of the relationship between emissions and exposure. Currently available intake fraction estimates from developing countries used models that look only at the near field impacts, which may not capture the full impact of a pollution source. This case study demonstrated how the intake fraction of power plant emissions in China can be calculated using a detailed long-range atmospheric dispersion model, CALPUFF. It was found that the intake fraction of primary fine particles is roughly on the order of 10{sup -5}, while the intake fractions of sulfur dioxide, sulfate and nitrate are on the order of 10{sup -6}. These estimates are an order of magnitude higher than the US estimates. The authors also tested how sensitive the results were to key assumptions within the model. The size distribution of primary particles has a large impact on the intake fraction for primary particles while the background ammonia concentration is an important factor influencing the intake fraction of nitrate. The background ozone concentration has a moderate impact on the intake fraction of sulfate and nitrate.

  1. Comparison of Various Databases for Estimation of Dietary Polyphenol Intake in the Population of Polish Adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna M. Witkowska

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The primary aim of the study was to estimate the consumption of polyphenols in a population of 6661 subjects aged between 20 and 74 years representing a cross-section of the Polish society, and the second objective was to compare the intakes of flavonoids calculated on the basis of the two commonly used databases. Daily food consumption data were collected in 2003–2005 using a single 24-hour dietary recall. Intake of total polyphenols was estimated using an online Phenol-Explorer database, and flavonoid intake was determined using following data sources: the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA database combined of flavonoid and isoflavone databases, and the Phenol-Explorer database. Total polyphenol intake, which was calculated with the Phenol-Explorer database, was 989 mg/day with the major contributions of phenolic acids 556 mg/day and flavonoids 403.5 mg/day. The flavonoid intake calculated on the basis of the USDA databases was 525 mg/day. This study found that tea is the primary source of polyphenols and flavonoids for the studied population, including mainly flavanols, while coffee is the most important contributor of phenolic acids, mostly hydroxycinnamic acids. Our study also demonstrated that flavonoid intakes estimated according to various databases may substantially differ. Further work should be undertaken to expand polyphenol databases to better reflect their food contents.

  2. Are individual based models a suitable approach to estimate population vulnerability? - a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eva Maria Griebeler

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available European populations of the Large Blue Butterfly Maculinea arion have experienced severe declines in the last decades, especially in the northern part of the species range. This endangered lycaenid butterfly needs two resources for development: flower buds of specific plants (Thymus spp., Origanum vulgare, on which young caterpillars briefly feed, and red ants of the genus Myrmica, whose nests support caterpillars during a prolonged final instar. I present an analytically solvable deterministic model to estimate the vulnerability of populations of M. arion. Results obtained from the sensitivity analysis of this mathematical model (MM are contrasted to the respective results that had been derived from a spatially explicit individual based model (IBM for this butterfly. I demonstrate that details in landscape configuration which are neglected by the MM but are easily taken into consideration by the IBM result in a different degree of intraspecific competition of caterpillars on flower buds and within host ant nests. The resulting differences in mortalities of caterpillars lead to erroneous estimates of the extinction risk of a butterfly population living in habitat with low food plant coverage and low abundance in host ant nests. This observation favors the use of an individual based modeling approach over the deterministic approach at least for the management of this threatened butterfly.

  3. Comparing population exposure to multiple Washington earthquake scenarios for prioritizing loss estimation studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Nathan J.; Ratliff, Jamie L.; Schelling, John; Weaver, Craig S.

    2014-01-01

    Scenario-based, loss-estimation studies are useful for gauging potential societal impacts from earthquakes but can be challenging to undertake in areas with multiple scenarios and jurisdictions. We present a geospatial approach using various population data for comparing earthquake scenarios and jurisdictions to help emergency managers prioritize where to focus limited resources on data development and loss-estimation studies. Using 20 earthquake scenarios developed for the State of Washington (USA), we demonstrate how a population-exposure analysis across multiple jurisdictions based on Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) classes helps emergency managers understand and communicate where potential loss of life may be concentrated and where impacts may be more related to quality of life. Results indicate that certain well-known scenarios may directly impact the greatest number of people, whereas other, potentially lesser-known, scenarios impact fewer people but consequences could be more severe. The use of economic data to profile each jurisdiction’s workforce in earthquake hazard zones also provides additional insight on at-risk populations. This approach can serve as a first step in understanding societal impacts of earthquakes and helping practitioners to efficiently use their limited risk-reduction resources.

  4. OD Matrix Acquisition Based on Mobile Phone Positioning Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoqing ZUO

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Dynamic OD matrix is basic data of traffic travel guidance, traffic control, traffic management and traffic planning, and reflects the basic needs of travelers on the traffic network. With the rising popularity of positioning technology and the communication technology and the generation of huge mobile phone users, the mining and use of mobile phone positioning data, can get more traffic intersections and import and export data. These data will be integrated into obtaining the regional OD matrix, which is bound to bring convenience. In this article, mobile phone positioning data used in the data acquisition of intelligent transportation system, research a kind of regional dynamic OD matrix acquisition method based on the mobile phone positioning data. The method based on purpose of transportation, using time series similarity classification algorithm based on piecewise linear representation of the corner point (CP-PLR, mapping each base station cell to traffic zone of different traffic characteristics, and through a series of mapping optimization of base station cell to traffic zone to realize city traffic zone division based on mobile phone traffic data, on the basis, adjacency matrix chosen as the physical data structure of OD matrix storage, the principle of obtaining regional dynamic OD matrix based on the mobile phone positioning data are expounded, and the algorithm of obtaining regional dynamic OD matrix based on mobile phone positioning data are designed and verified.

  5. Simulation of the BGO-OD experiment at ELSA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnstone, Russell [University of Bonn, Physikalisches Institut, Bonn (Germany); Collaboration: BGO-OD-Collaboration

    2011-07-01

    The goal of the BGO Open-Dipole (BGO-OD) project is the systematic investigation of the photoproduction of mesons off the nucleon. These processes are related to the structure of both the mesons and the baryons involved in reactions typical of low-energy hadronic physics. In order to fully understand and accurately interpret the results of the BGO-OD experiment it will be necessary to have a full detector and reaction simulation so that effects from detector resolution and acceptance can be accounted for in the final results. The simulation of the BGO-OD will be be undertaken with the Explora Virtual Monte-Carlo (VMC) software framework. This allows for one common user code to be implemented under Geant4, Geant3 and Fluka. The simulation software is also an analysis tool and such flexibility will be key to an efficient final analysis of the data from the BGO-OD experiment. Presented here are current status of the simulation software for the BGO-OD project and the relevant geometry of the BGO-OD, including the central BGO rugby ball detector with the dual-layer Multiwire Proportional Chambers (MWPCs) and the forward spectrometer, consisting of a large dipole magnet, tracking detectors and the Time-of-Flight walls. Simulation of the magnetic field will also be covered.

  6. Inhibited Aluminization of an ODS FeCr Alloy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vande Put Ep Rouaix, Aurelie; Pint, Bruce A.

    2012-01-01

    Aluminide coatings are of interest for fusion energy applications both for compatibility with liquid Pb-Li and to form an alumina layer that acts as a tritium permeation barrier. Oxide dispersion strengthened (ODS) ferritic steels are a structural material candidate for commercial reactor concepts expected to operate above 600 C. Aluminizing was conducted in a laboratory scale chemical vapor deposition reactor using accepted conditions for coating Fe- and Ni-base alloys. However, the measured mass gains on the current batch of ODS Fe-14Cr were extremely low compared to other conventional and ODS alloys. After aluminizing at two different Al activities at 900 C and at 1100 C, characterization showed that the ODS Fe-14Cr specimens formed a dense, primarily AlN layer that prevented Al uptake. This alloy batch contained a higher (> 5000 ppma) N content than the other alloys coated and this is the most likely reason for the inhibited aluminization. Other factors such as the high O content, small (∼ 140 nm) grain size and Y-Ti oxide nano-clusters in ODS Fe-14Cr also could have contributed to the observed behavior. Examples of typical aluminide coatings formed on conventional and ODS Fe- and Ni-base alloys are shown for comparison.

  7. Modification of the Strength Anisotropy in an Austenitic ODS Steel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, T. K.; Jang, J.; Kim, S. H.; Lee, C. B.; Bae, C. S.; Kim, D. H.

    2007-01-01

    Among many candidate alloys for Gen IV reactors, the oxide dispersion strengthened (ODS) alloy is widely considered as a good candidate material for the in-reactor component, like cladding tube. The ODS alloy is well known due to its good high temperature strength, and excellent irradiation resistance. For the previous two decades in the nuclear community, the ODS alloy developments have been mostly focused on the ferritic martensitic (F-M) steel-based ones. On the other hand, the austenitic stainless steels (e.g. 316L or 316LN) have been used as a structural material due to its good high temperature strength and a good compatibility with a media. However, the austenitic stainless steel showed unfavorable characteristics in the dimensional stability under neutron irradiation and cracking behavior with the media. It is thus expected that the austenitic ODS steels restrain the dimension stability under neutron irradiation. However, the ODS alloys usually reveal the anisotropic characteristic in mechanical strength in the hoop and longitudinal directions, which is attributed to the grain morphology strongly developed parallel to the rolling direction with a high aspect ratio. This study focuses on a modification of the strength anisotropy of an austenitic ODS alloy by a recrystallization heat treatment

  8. Preliminary investigation on reliability of genomic estimated breeding values in the Danish and Swedish Holstein Population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Su, G; Guldbrandtsen, B; Gregersen, V R

    2010-01-01

    or no effects, and a single prior distribution common for all SNP. It was found that, in general, the model with a common prior distribution of scaling factors had better predictive ability than any mixture prior models. Therefore, a common prior model was used to estimate SNP effects and breeding values......Abstract This study investigated the reliability of genomic estimated breeding values (GEBV) in the Danish Holstein population. The data in the analysis included 3,330 bulls with both published conventional EBV and single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers. After data editing, 38,134 SNP markers...... were available. In the analysis, all SNP were fitted simultaneously as random effects in a Bayesian variable selection model, which allows heterogeneous variances for different SNP markers. The response variables were the official EBV. Direct GEBV were calculated as the sum of individual SNP effects...

  9. Estimated values of the genetic and somatic radiation exposure of the Bulgarian population in 1976

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poppitz, R.; Dobrev, D.

    1979-01-01

    The genetically and leukemia-significant doses (GSD and LSD) were calculated from the average gonad and bone marrow doses caused by the most frequently applied radiopharmaceuticals in Bulgaria in 1976. Because of the lack of information about the age groups of the patients examined assumptions have been made which led to estimated values of 0.97 mrad for GSD and 2.0 mrad for LSD which must be considered as the upper limit of the real GSD and LSD. The influence of the different radiopharmaceuticals on the average radiation exposure of the population is discussed. (author)

  10. Estimation of the genetic diversity in tetraploid alfalfa populations based on RAPD markers for breeding purposes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagl, Nevena; Taski-Ajdukovic, Ksenija; Barac, Goran; Baburski, Aleksandar; Seccareccia, Ivana; Milic, Dragan; Katic, Slobodan

    2011-01-01

    Alfalfa is an autotetraploid, allogamous and heterozygous forage legume, whose varieties are synthetic populations. Due to the complex nature of the species, information about genetic diversity of germplasm used in any alfalfa breeding program is most beneficial. The genetic diversity of five alfalfa varieties, involved in progeny tests at Institute of Field and Vegetable Crops, was characterized based on RAPD markers. A total of 60 primers were screened, out of which 17 were selected for the analysis of genetic diversity. A total of 156 polymorphic bands were generated, with 10.6 bands per primer. Number and percentage of polymorphic loci, effective number of alleles, expected heterozygosity and Shannon's information index were used to estimate genetic variation. Variety Zuzana had the highest values for all tested parameters, exhibiting the highest level of variation, whereas variety RSI 20 exhibited the lowest. Analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) showed that 88.39% of the total genetic variation was attributed to intra-varietal variance. The cluster analysis for individual samples and varieties revealed differences in their population structures: variety Zuzana showed a very high level of genetic variation, Banat and Ghareh were divided in subpopulations, while Pecy and RSI 20 were relatively uniform. Ways of exploiting the investigated germplasm in the breeding programs are suggested in this paper, depending on their population structure and diversity. The RAPD analysis shows potential to be applied in analysis of parental populations in semi-hybrid alfalfa breeding program in both, development of new homogenous germplasm, and identification of promising, complementary germplasm.

  11. The estimation of radiation effective dose from diagnostic medical procedures in general population of northern Iran

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shabestani Monfared, A.; Abdi, R.

    2006-01-01

    The risks of low-dose Ionizing radiation from radiology and nuclear medicine are not clearly determined. Effective dose to population is a very important factor in risk estimation. The study aimed to determine the effective dose from diagnostic radiation medicine in a northern province of Iran. Materials and Methods: Data about various radiologic and nuclear medicine procedures were collected from all radiology and nuclear medicine departments In Mazandaran Province (population = 2,898,031); and using the standard dosimetry tables, the total dose, dose per examination, and annual effective dose per capita as well as the annual gonadal dose per capita were estimated. Results: 655,730 radiologic examinations in a year's period, lead to 1.45 mSv, 0.33 mSv and 0.31 mGy as average effective dose per examination, annual average effective dose to member of the public, and annual average gonadal dose per capita, respectively. The frequency of medical radiologic examinations was 2,262 examinations annually per 10,000 members of population. However, the total number of nuclear medicine examinations in the same period was 7074, with 4.37 mSv, 9.6 μSv and 9.8 μGy, as average effective dose per examination, annual average effective dose to member of the public and annual average gonadal dose per caput, respectively. The frequency of nuclear medicine examination was 24 examinations annually per 10,000 members of population. Conclusion: The average effective dose per examination was nearly similar to other studies. However, the average annual effective dose and annual average gonadal dose per capita were less than the similar values in other reports, which could be due to lesser number of radiation medicine examinations in the present study

  12. Population parameters for dose calculations: initial estimates of municipal, city and provincial age group population within 20, 50 and 80 kilometers of the PNPP-1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramirez, R.A.

    1985-01-01

    The study attempts to determine the total population and population growth rates of four (4) age groups per municipality/city within twenty (20), fifty (50) and eighty (80) kilometers from the Philippine Nuclear Power Plant (PNPP-1). The population estimates were done at five (5) year intervals covering the next fifty years. The latest National Census and Statistics Office (NCSO) population projections at the provincial level under the assumption of moderate fertility and moderate mentality decline (series no. 2) were used to derive the estimates of the total population and population growth rates at the minicipality/city levels. The Bureau of Coastal and Geodetic Survey (BCGS) and the NCSO maps served as the bases for delineating the geographic and political boundaries covered by the study. The results will complement the findings of the PAEC project on agricultural parameters for radiation dose calculations and useful for related environmental studies. (author)

  13. Hardening of ODS ferritic steels under irradiation with high-energy heavy ions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Z. N.; Zhang, C. H.; Yang, Y. T.; Song, Y.; Kimura, A.; Jang, J.

    2017-09-01

    Influence of the nanoscale oxide particles on mechanical properties and irradiation resistance of oxide-dispersion-strengthened (ODS) ferritic steels is of critical importance for the use of the material in fuel cladding or blanket components in advanced nuclear reactors. In the present work, impact of structures of oxide dispersoids on the irradiation hardening of ODS ferritic steels was studied. Specimens of three high-Cr ODS ferritic steels containing oxide dispersoids with different number density and average size were irradiated with high-energy Ni ions at about -50 °C. The energy of the incident Ni ions was varied from 12.73 MeV to 357.86 MeV by using an energy degrader at the terminal so that a plateau of atomic displacement damage (∼0.8 dpa) was produced from the near surface to a depth of 24 μm in the specimens. A nanoindentor (in constant stiffness mode with a diamond Berkovich indenter) and a Vickers micro-hardness tester were used to measure the hardeness of the specimens. The Nix-Gao model taking account of the indentation size effect (ISE) was used to fit the hardness data. It is observed that the soft substrate effect (SSE) can be diminished substantially in the irradiated specimens due to the thick damaged regions produced by the Ni ions. A linear correlation between the nano-hardeness and the micro-hardness was found. It is observed that a higher number density of oxide dispersoids with a smaller average diameter corresponds to an increased resistance to irradiation hardening, which can be ascribed to the increased sink strength of oxides/matrix interfaces to point defects. The rate equation approach and the conventional hardening model were used to analyze the influence of defect clusters on irradiation hardening in ODS ferritic steels. The numerical estimates show that the hardening caused by the interstitial type dislocation loops follows a similar trend with the experiment data.

  14. Demonstrating the robustness of population surveillance data: implications of error rates on demographic and mortality estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fottrell, Edward; Byass, Peter; Berhane, Yemane

    2008-03-25

    As in any measurement process, a certain amount of error may be expected in routine population surveillance operations such as those in demographic surveillance sites (DSSs). Vital events are likely to be missed and errors made no matter what method of data capture is used or what quality control procedures are in place. The extent to which random errors in large, longitudinal datasets affect overall health and demographic profiles has important implications for the role of DSSs as platforms for public health research and clinical trials. Such knowledge is also of particular importance if the outputs of DSSs are to be extrapolated and aggregated with realistic margins of error and validity. This study uses the first 10-year dataset from the Butajira Rural Health Project (BRHP) DSS, Ethiopia, covering approximately 336,000 person-years of data. Simple programmes were written to introduce random errors and omissions into new versions of the definitive 10-year Butajira dataset. Key parameters of sex, age, death, literacy and roof material (an indicator of poverty) were selected for the introduction of errors based on their obvious importance in demographic and health surveillance and their established significant associations with mortality. Defining the original 10-year dataset as the 'gold standard' for the purposes of this investigation, population, age and sex compositions and Poisson regression models of mortality rate ratios were compared between each of the intentionally erroneous datasets and the original 'gold standard' 10-year data. The composition of the Butajira population was well represented despite introducing random errors, and differences between population pyramids based on the derived datasets were subtle. Regression analyses of well-established mortality risk factors were largely unaffected even by relatively high levels of random errors in the data. The low sensitivity of parameter estimates and regression analyses to significant amounts of

  15. Demonstrating the robustness of population surveillance data: implications of error rates on demographic and mortality estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Berhane Yemane

    2008-03-01

    estimates and regression analyses to significant amounts of randomly introduced errors indicates a high level of robustness of the dataset. This apparent inertia of population parameter estimates to simulated errors is largely due to the size of the dataset. Tolerable margins of random error in DSS data may exceed 20%. While this is not an argument in favour of poor quality data, reducing the time and valuable resources spent on detecting and correcting random errors in routine DSS operations may be justifiable as the returns from such procedures diminish with increasing overall accuracy. The money and effort currently spent on endlessly correcting DSS datasets would perhaps be better spent on increasing the surveillance population size and geographic spread of DSSs and analysing and disseminating research findings.

  16. Impact of risk factors on cardiovascular risk: a perspective on risk estimation in a Swiss population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chrubasik, Sigrun A; Chrubasik, Cosima A; Piper, Jörg; Schulte-Moenting, Juergen; Erne, Paul

    2015-01-01

    In models and scores for estimating cardiovascular risk (CVR), the relative weightings given to blood pressure measurements (BPMs), and biometric and laboratory variables are such that even large differences in blood pressure lead to rather low differences in the resulting total risk when compared with other concurrent risk factors. We evaluated this phenomenon based on the PROCAM score, using BPMs made by volunteer subjects at home (HBPMs) and automated ambulatory BPMs (ABPMs) carried out in the same subjects. A total of 153 volunteers provided the data needed to estimate their CVR by means of the PROCAM formula. Differences (deltaCVR) between the risk estimated by entering the ABPM and that estimated with the HBPM were compared with the differences (deltaBPM) between the ABPM and the corresponding HBPM. In addition to the median values (= second quartile), the first and third quartiles of blood pressure profiles were also considered. PROCAM risk values were converted to European Society of Cardiology (ESC) risk values and all participants were assigned to the risk groups low, medium and high. Based on the PROCAM score, 132 participants had a low risk for suffering myocardial infarction, 16 a medium risk and 5 a high risk. The calculated ESC scores classified 125 participants into the low-risk group, 26 into the medium- and 2 into the high-risk group for death from a cardiovascular event. Mean ABPM tended to be higher than mean HBPM. Use of mean systolic ABPM or HBPM in the PROCAM formula had no major impact on the risk level. Our observations are in agreement with the rather low weighting of blood pressure as risk determinant in the PROCAM score. BPMs assessed with different methods had relatively little impact on estimation of cardiovascular risk in the given context of other important determinants. The risk calculations in our unselected population reflect the given classification of Switzerland as a so-called cardiovascular "low risk country".

  17. Low-level radiation: a review of current estimates of hazards to human populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Myers, D.K.

    1977-12-01

    Mankind has always lived with low levels of ionizing radiation from natural sources. This ionizing radiation may induce cancers in irradiated persons and genetic defects in the descendents of irradiated persons. The internationally accepted estimates of risks suggest that the numbers of cancers and genetic defects induced in the general population by natural background radiation are not more than about 1% of the numbers of cancers and genetic defects normally present in the general population. The added risks to the general public due to any prospective nuclear power program are minute compared to those from background radiation. At the maximum permissible levels of radiation exposures for occupational workers, the predicted number of fatal cancers induced would lead to a reduction in average life-span from 73.0 years to about 72.7 years. Since occupational exposures are usually much less than maximum permissible levels, the risks are correspondingly reduced. These occupational risks are comparable to those in most other industries and occupations. Some areas of uncertainty in the accepted risk estimates are discussed in detail in this review. (author)

  18. Total Body Capacitance for Estimating Human Basal Metabolic Rate in an Egyptian Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    M. Abdel-Mageed, Samir; I. Mohamed, Ehab

    2016-01-01

    Determining basal metabolic rate (BMR) is important for estimating total energy needs in the human being yet, concerns have been raised regarding the suitability of sex-specific equations based on age and weight for its calculation on an individual or population basis. It has been shown that body cell mass (BCM) is the body compartment responsible for BMR. The objectives of this study were to investigate the relationship between total body capacitance (TBC), which is considered as an expression for BCM, and BMR and to develop a formula for calculating BMR in comparison with widely used equations. Fifty healthy nonsmoking male volunteers [mean age (± SD): 24.93 ± 4.15 year and body mass index (BMI): 25.63 ± 3.59 kg/m2] and an equal number of healthy nonsmoking females matched for age and BMI were recruited for the study. TBC and BMR were measured for all participants using octopolar bioelectric impedance analysis and indirect calorimetry techniques, respectively. A significant regressing equation based on the covariates: sex, weight, and TBC for estimating BMR was derived (R=0.96, SEE=48.59 kcal, and P<0.0001), which will be useful for nutritional and health status assessment for both individuals and populations. PMID:27127453

  19. Reliability of third molar development for age estimation in Gujarati population: A comparative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gandhi, Neha; Jain, Sandeep; Kumar, Manish; Rupakar, Pratik; Choyal, Kanaram; Prajapati, Seema

    2015-01-01

    Age assessment may be a crucial step in postmortem profiling leading to confirmative identification. In children, Demirjian's method based on eight developmental stages was developed to determine maturity scores as a function of age and polynomial functions to determine age as a function of score. Of this study was to evaluate the reliability of age estimation using Demirjian's eight teeth method following the French maturity scores and Indian-specific formula from developmental stages of third molar with the help of orthopantomograms using the Demirjian method. Dental panoramic tomograms from 30 subjects each of known chronological age and sex were collected and were evaluated according to Demirjian's criteria. Age calculations were performed using Demirjian's formula and Indian formula. Statistical analysis used was Chi-square test and ANOVA test and the P values obtained were statistically significant. There was an average underestimation of age with both Indian and Demirjian's formulas. The mean absolute error was lower using Indian formula hence it can be applied for age estimation in present Gujarati population. Also, females were ahead of achieving dental maturity than males thus completion of dental development is attained earlier in females. Greater accuracy can be obtained if population-specific formulas considering the ethnic and environmental variation are derived performing the regression analysis.

  20. The chronological age estimation of third molar mineralization of Han population in southwestern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qing, Maofeng; Qiu, Lihua; Gao, Zhi; Bhandari, Kishor

    2014-05-01

    The purpose of the study was to estimate the chronology of third molar mineralization in Han population of southwestern China and find its unique characteristics so that it would provide a reference in several legal cases like forensic age estimation. The study used Demirjian's staging method to study 2192 orthopantomograms of 984 male and 1208 female subjects aged between 8 and 25 years. The statistical data was analyzed by Student's t test and ANOVA. The conclusions of the study are: (1) The chronological mineralization age of third molars of Han population in Southwestern China is similar to the Turkish and the Japanese, was earlier than the Austrian and Han of South China, but later than the Spanish. (2) The mineralization timing of the third molars between two sides in maxilla or mandible has no significant differences in the same gender group. (3) There is no significant difference in mineralization of third molars between male and female, except for tooth 48 in Demirjian's stage E. (4) The mineralization of third molar in maxilla is earlier than mandible. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

  1. Bomb survivor selection and consequences for estimates of population cancer risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Little, M.P.; Charles, M.W.

    1990-01-01

    Health records of the Japanese bomb survivor population [with the 1965 (T65D) and 1986 (DS86) dosimetry systems] have been analyzed and some evidence found for the selection effect hypothesized by Stewart and Kneale. This is found to be significant in only the first of the periods examined (1950-1958), and the effect diminishes in magnitude thereafter. There are indications that the effect might be an artifact of the T65D dosimetry, in which it is observed more strongly than in the DS86 data. There is no evidence to suggest that selection on this basis might confer correspondingly reduced susceptibility to radiation-induced cancer. If, however, one makes this assumption, as suggested by Stewart and Kneale, then current estimates of population cancer risks might need to be inflated by between 5% and 35% (for excess cancer deaths, Gy-1) or between 8% and 40% (for years of life lost, Gy-1) to account for this. It is likely that these figures, even assuming them not to be simply an artifact of the T65D dosimetry, overestimate the degree of adjustment required to the risk estimates

  2. Estimation of Disability Weights in the General Population of South Korea Using a Paired Comparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ock, Minsu; Ahn, Jeonghoon; Yoon, Seok-Jun; Jo, Min-Woo

    2016-01-01

    We estimated the disability weights in the South Korean population by using a paired comparison-only model wherein ‘full health’ and ‘being dead’ were included as anchor points, without resorting to a cardinal method, such as person trade-off. The study was conducted via 2 types of survey: a household survey involving computer-assisted face-to-face interviews and a web-based survey (similar to that of the GBD 2010 disability weight study). With regard to the valuation methods, paired comparison, visual analogue scale (VAS), and standard gamble (SG) were used in the household survey, whereas paired comparison and population health equivalence (PHE) were used in the web-based survey. Accordingly, we described a total of 258 health states, with ‘full health’ and ‘being dead’ designated as anchor points. In the analysis, 4 models were considered: a paired comparison-only model; hybrid model between paired comparison and PHE; VAS model; and SG model. A total of 2,728 and 3,188 individuals participated in the household and web-based survey, respectively. The Pearson correlation coefficients of the disability weights of health states between the GBD 2010 study and the current models were 0.802 for Model 2, 0.796 for Model 1, 0.681 for Model 3, and 0.574 for Model 4 (all P-valuesdisability weights in South Korea, and for maintaining simplicity in the analysis. Thus, disability weights can be more easily estimated by using paired comparison alone, with ‘full health’ and ‘being dead’ as one of the health states. As noted in our study, we believe that additional evidence regarding the universality of disability weight can be observed by using a simplified methodology of estimating disability weights. PMID:27606626

  3. Estimation of Disability Weights in the General Population of South Korea Using a Paired Comparison.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ock, Minsu; Ahn, Jeonghoon; Yoon, Seok-Jun; Jo, Min-Woo

    2016-01-01

    We estimated the disability weights in the South Korean population by using a paired comparison-only model wherein 'full health' and 'being dead' were included as anchor points, without resorting to a cardinal method, such as person trade-off. The study was conducted via 2 types of survey: a household survey involving computer-assisted face-to-face interviews and a web-based survey (similar to that of the GBD 2010 disability weight study). With regard to the valuation methods, paired comparison, visual analogue scale (VAS), and standard gamble (SG) were used in the household survey, whereas paired comparison and population health equivalence (PHE) were used in the web-based survey. Accordingly, we described a total of 258 health states, with 'full health' and 'being dead' designated as anchor points. In the analysis, 4 models were considered: a paired comparison-only model; hybrid model between paired comparison and PHE; VAS model; and SG model. A total of 2,728 and 3,188 individuals participated in the household and web-based survey, respectively. The Pearson correlation coefficients of the disability weights of health states between the GBD 2010 study and the current models were 0.802 for Model 2, 0.796 for Model 1, 0.681 for Model 3, and 0.574 for Model 4 (all P-valuesdisability weights in South Korea, and for maintaining simplicity in the analysis. Thus, disability weights can be more easily estimated by using paired comparison alone, with 'full health' and 'being dead' as one of the health states. As noted in our study, we believe that additional evidence regarding the universality of disability weight can be observed by using a simplified methodology of estimating disability weights.

  4. Estimation of a Killer Whale (Orcinus orca Population's Diet Using Sequencing Analysis of DNA from Feces.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael J Ford

    Full Text Available Estimating diet composition is important for understanding interactions between predators and prey and thus illuminating ecosystem function. The diet of many species, however, is difficult to observe directly. Genetic analysis of fecal material collected in the field is therefore a useful tool for gaining insight into wild animal diets. In this study, we used high-throughput DNA sequencing to quantitatively estimate the diet composition of an endangered population of wild killer whales (Orcinus orca in their summer range in the Salish Sea. We combined 175 fecal samples collected between May and September from five years between 2006 and 2011 into 13 sample groups. Two known DNA composition control groups were also created. Each group was sequenced at a ~330bp segment of the 16s gene in the mitochondrial genome using an Illumina MiSeq sequencing system. After several quality controls steps, 4,987,107 individual sequences were aligned to a custom sequence database containing 19 potential fish prey species and the most likely species of each fecal-derived sequence was determined. Based on these alignments, salmonids made up >98.6% of the total sequences and thus of the inferred diet. Of the six salmonid species, Chinook salmon made up 79.5% of the sequences, followed by coho salmon (15%. Over all years, a clear pattern emerged with Chinook salmon dominating the estimated diet early in the summer, and coho salmon contributing an average of >40% of the diet in late summer. Sockeye salmon appeared to be occasionally important, at >18% in some sample groups. Non-salmonids were rarely observed. Our results are consistent with earlier results based on surface prey remains, and confirm the importance of Chinook salmon in this population's summer diet.

  5. Accurate and fast methods to estimate the population mutation rate from error prone sequences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miyamoto Michael M

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The population mutation rate (θ remains one of the most fundamental parameters in genetics, ecology, and evolutionary biology. However, its accurate estimation can be seriously compromised when working with error prone data such as expressed sequence tags, low coverage draft sequences, and other such unfinished products. This study is premised on the simple idea that a random sequence error due to a chance accident during data collection or recording will be distributed within a population dataset as a singleton (i.e., as a polymorphic site where one sampled sequence exhibits a unique base relative to the common nucleotide of the others. Thus, one can avoid these random errors by ignoring the singletons within a dataset. Results This strategy is implemented under an infinite sites model that focuses on only the internal branches of the sample genealogy where a shared polymorphism can arise (i.e., a variable site where each alternative base is represented by at least two sequences. This approach is first used to derive independently the same new Watterson and Tajima estimators of θ, as recently reported by Achaz 1 for error prone sequences. It is then used to modify the recent, full, maximum-likelihood model of Knudsen and Miyamoto 2, which incorporates various factors for experimental error and design with those for coalescence and mutation. These new methods are all accurate and fast according to evolutionary simulations and analyses of a real complex population dataset for the California seahare. Conclusion In light of these results, we recommend the use of these three new methods for the determination of θ from error prone sequences. In particular, we advocate the new maximum likelihood model as a starting point for the further development of more complex coalescent/mutation models that also account for experimental error and design.

  6. Injuries in Aleppo, Syria; first population-based estimates and characterization of predominant types

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maziak Wasim

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Despite the growing burden of injuries worldwide, Syria and many other Arab countries still lack population-based estimates of different types of injuries. This study aims toprovide first population-based estimates of major injuries in Syria and characterize groups at increased risk. Methods An interviewer-administered population-based survey of adults 18–65 years residing in Aleppo, Syria was conducted in 2004. The study sample involved 2038 household representatives in Aleppo (45.2% men, mean age 35.3 ± 12.1, response rate 86%. We inquired about participants self-reported injuries in the past year that required medical attention as well as injuries among their household members. When reported, injuries were further assessed according to type, place, and outcome. Results Overall, there was 153 self-reported injuries in the past year (77.3 per 1000 adult respondents, 93.1 per 1000 in men and 64.4 per 1000 in women, p = 0.02. Other than gender, injuries differed by age (the older age group being least affected, and place of occurrence, as men were more likely to sustain traffic injuries and be injured outside the home. Injuries were reported among 236 household members (21.0 per 1000, and were slightly more frequent in children than adults (22.0 per 1000 for children, and 19.7 per 1000 for adults, p = 0.2. Traffic injuries, falls, and poisoning (food were by far the most common types of injury experienced by participants as well as their household members. Falls and traffic injuries seem to have caused most morbidity for the injured, while burns, although not frequently reported, were associated with an unfavorable outcome in the majority of cases. Conclusion This information provides baseline information about the burden of different injuries in Syria, and the sociodemographic factors related to them.

  7. Population size estimation of men who have sex with men through the network scale-up method in Japan.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Satoshi Ezoe

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Men who have sex with men (MSM are one of the groups most at risk for HIV infection in Japan. However, size estimates of MSM populations have not been conducted with sufficient frequency and rigor because of the difficulty, high cost and stigma associated with reaching such populations. This study examined an innovative and simple method for estimating the size of the MSM population in Japan. We combined an internet survey with the network scale-up method, a social network method for estimating the size of hard-to-reach populations, for the first time in Japan. METHODS AND FINDINGS: An internet survey was conducted among 1,500 internet users who registered with a nationwide internet-research agency. The survey participants were asked how many members of particular groups with known population sizes (firepersons, police officers, and military personnel they knew as acquaintances. The participants were also asked to identify the number of their acquaintances whom they understood to be MSM. Using these survey results with the network scale-up method, the personal network size and MSM population size were estimated. The personal network size was estimated to be 363.5 regardless of the sex of the acquaintances and 174.0 for only male acquaintances. The estimated MSM prevalence among the total male population in Japan was 0.0402% without adjustment, and 2.87% after adjusting for the transmission error of MSM. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated personal network size and MSM prevalence seen in this study were comparable to those from previous survey results based on the direct-estimation method. Estimating population sizes through combining an internet survey with the network scale-up method appeared to be an effective method from the perspectives of rapidity, simplicity, and low cost as compared with more-conventional methods.

  8. Comparison of sampling methodologies and estimation of population parameters for a temporary fish ectoparasite

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.M. Artim

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Characterizing spatio-temporal variation in the density of organisms in a community is a crucial part of ecological study. However, doing so for small, motile, cryptic species presents multiple challenges, especially where multiple life history stages are involved. Gnathiid isopods are ecologically important marine ectoparasites, micropredators that live in substrate for most of their lives, emerging only once during each juvenile stage to feed on fish blood. Many gnathiid species are nocturnal and most have distinct substrate preferences. Studies of gnathiid use of habitat, exploitation of hosts, and population dynamics have used various trap designs to estimate rates of gnathiid emergence, study sensory ecology, and identify host susceptibility. In the studies reported here, we compare and contrast the performance of emergence, fish-baited and light trap designs, outline the key features of these traps, and determine some life cycle parameters derived from trap counts for the Eastern Caribbean coral-reef gnathiid, Gnathia marleyi. We also used counts from large emergence traps and light traps to estimate additional life cycle parameters, emergence rates, and total gnathiid density on substrate, and to calibrate the light trap design to provide estimates of rate of emergence and total gnathiid density in habitat not amenable to emergence trap deployment.

  9. Estimation of frequency, population doses and stochastic risks in brachytherapy in Japan, 1983

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maruyama, Takashi; Kumamoto, Yoshikazu; Noda, Yutaka; Nishizawa, Kanae; Furuya, Yoshiro; Iwai, Kazuo.

    1988-01-01

    Based on the replies to a questionnaire distributed throughout Japan in 1983, genetically significant dose (GSD), per Caput mean bone marrow dose (CMD), leukemogenically significant dose (LSD), malignantly significant dose (MSD), and per Caput effective dose equivalent (EDE) from using small sealed radiation sources for radiotherapy were estimated. Annual frequencies of brachytherapy were estimated to be 2.6 x 10 3 for men and 36.3 x 10 3 for women, with a total of 38.9 x 10 3 . The annual frequencies of using afterloading technique were 0.3 x 10 3 for men and 18.8 x 10 3 for women, with a total of 19.1 x 10 3 . The annual population doses per person were 7.9 nGy for GSD, 118 μGy for CMD, 19.3 μGy for LSD, 172 μGy for MSD, and 428 μGy for EDE. The annual collective effective dose equivalent was estimated to be 5.13 x 10 4 man Sv. (Namekawa, K.)

  10. Spatially explicit inference for open populations: estimating demographic parameters from camera-trap studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardner, Beth; Reppucci, Juan; Lucherini, Mauro; Royle, J Andrew

    2010-11-01

    We develop a hierarchical capture-recapture model for demographically open populations when auxiliary spatial information about location of capture is obtained. Such spatial capture-recapture data arise from studies based on camera trapping, DNA sampling, and other situations in which a spatial array of devices records encounters of unique individuals. We integrate an individual-based formulation of a Jolly-Seber type model with recently developed spatially explicit capture-recapture models to estimate density and demographic parameters for survival and recruitment. We adopt a Bayesian framework for inference under this model using the method of data augmentation which is implemented in the software program WinBUGS. The model was motivated by a camera trapping study of Pampas cats Leopardus colocolo from Argentina, which we present as an illustration of the model in this paper. We provide estimates of density and the first quantitative assessment of vital rates for the Pampas cat in the High Andes. The precision of these estimates is poor due likely to the sparse data set. Unlike conventional inference methods which usually rely on asymptotic arguments, Bayesian inferences are valid in arbitrary sample sizes, and thus the method is ideal for the study of rare or endangered species for which small data sets are typical.

  11. Estimation of genomic prediction accuracy from reference populations with varying degrees of relationship.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S Hong Lee

    Full Text Available Genomic prediction is emerging in a wide range of fields including animal and plant breeding, risk prediction in human precision medicine and forensic. It is desirable to establish a theoretical framework for genomic prediction accuracy when the reference data consists of information sources with varying degrees of relationship to the target individuals. A reference set can contain both close and distant relatives as well as 'unrelated' individuals from the wider population in the genomic prediction. The various sources of information were modeled as different populations with different effective population sizes (Ne. Both the effective number of chromosome segments (Me and Ne are considered to be a function of the data used for prediction. We validate our theory with analyses of simulated as well as real data, and illustrate that the variation in genomic relationships with the target is a predictor of the information content of the reference set. With a similar amount of data available for each source, we show that close relatives can have a substantially larger effect on genomic prediction accuracy than lesser related individuals. We also illustrate that when prediction relies on closer relatives, there is less improvement in prediction accuracy with an increase in training data or marker panel density. We release software that can estimate the expected prediction accuracy and power when combining different reference sources with various degrees of relationship to the target, which is useful when planning genomic prediction (before or after collecting data in animal, plant and human genetics.

  12. Nanostructure evolution in ODS steels under ion irradiation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Rogozhkin

    2016-12-01

    In this work, we carried out atom probe tomography (APT and transmission electron microscopy (TEM studies of three different ODS steels produced by mechanical alloying: ODS Eurofer, 13.5Cr ODS and 13.5Cr-0.3Ti ODS. These materials were investigated after irradiation with Fe (5.6MeV or Ti (4.8MeV ions up to 1015ion/cm2 and part of them up to 3×1015ion/cm2. In all cases, areas for TEM investigation were cut at a depth of ∼ 1.3µm from the irradiated surface corresponding to the peak of the radiation damage dose. It was shown that after irradiation at RT and at 300°С the number density of oxide particles in all the samples grew up. Meanwhile, the fraction of small particles in the size distribution has increased. APT revealed an essential increase in nanoclusters number and a change of their chemical composition at the same depth. The nanostructure was the most stable in 13.5Cr-0.3Ti ODS irradiated at 300°С: the increase of the fraction of small oxides was minimal and no change of nanocluster chemical composition was detected.

  13. [Development and integration of the Oncological Documentation System ODS].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raab, G; van Den Bergh, M

    2001-08-01

    To simplify clinical routine and to improve medical quality without exceeding the existing resources. Intensifying communication and cooperation between all institutions of patients' health care. The huge amount of documentation work of physicians can no longer be done without modern tools of paperless data processing. The development of ODS was a tight cooperation between physician and technician which resulted in a mutual understanding and led to a high level of user convenience. - At present all cases of gynecology, especially gynecologic oncology can be documented and processed by ODS. Users easily will adopt the system as data entry within different program areas follows the same rules. In addition users can choose between an individual input of data and assistants guiding them through highly specific areas of documentation. ODS is a modern, modular structured and very fast multiuser database environment for in- and outpatient documentation. It automatically generates a lot of reports for clinical day to day business. Statistical routines will help the user reflecting his work and its quality. Documentation of clinical trials according to the GCP guidelines can be done by ODS using the internet or offline datasharing. As ODS is the synthesis of a computer based patient administration system and an oncological documentation database, it represents the basis for the construction of the electronical patient chart as well as the digital documentation of clinical trials. The introduction of this new technology to physicians and nurses has to be done slowly and carefully, in order to increase motivation and to improve the results.

  14. High yttria ferritic ODS steels through powder forging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Deepak; Prakash, Ujjwal; Dabhade, Vikram V.; Laha, K.; Sakthivel, T.

    2017-05-01

    Oxide dispersion strengthened (ODS) steels are being developed for future nuclear reactors. ODS Fe-18%Cr-2%W-0.2%Ti steels with 0, 0.35, 0.5, 1 and 1.5% Y2O3 (all compositions in weight%) dispersion were fabricated by mechanical alloying of elemental powders. The powders were placed in a mild steel can and forged in a stream of hydrogen gas at 1473 K. The steels were forged again to final density. The strength of ODS steel increased with yttria content. Though this was accompanied by a decrease in tensile elongation, all the steels showed significant ductility. The ductility in high yttria alloys may be attributed to improved inter-particle bonding between milled powders due to reduction of surface oxides by hydrogen. This may permit development of ODS steels with yttria contents higher than the conventional limit of 0.5%. It is suggested that powder forging is a promising route to fabricate ODS steels with high yttria contents and improved ductility.

  15. Census 2012 Core Based Statistical Area (CBSAs) Polygons with Population Estimates, US EPA Region 9, 2014, USCB

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) from the US Census Bureau's TIGER files download website, joined with 2014 population estimate data downloaded from the US...

  16. Estimation of the Genetic Diversity in Tetraploid Alfalfa Populations Based on RAPD Markers for Breeding Purposes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Slobodan Katic

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Alfalfa is an autotetraploid, allogamous and heterozygous forage legume, whose varieties are synthetic populations. Due to the complex nature of the species, information about genetic diversity of germplasm used in any alfalfa breeding program is most beneficial. The genetic diversity of five alfalfa varieties, involved in progeny tests at Institute of Field and Vegetable Crops, was characterized based on RAPD markers. A total of 60 primers were screened, out of which 17 were selected for the analysis of genetic diversity. A total of 156 polymorphic bands were generated, with 10.6 bands per primer. Number and percentage of polymorphic loci, effective number of alleles, expected heterozygosity and Shannon’s information index were used to estimate genetic variation. Variety Zuzana had the highest values for all tested parameters, exhibiting the highest level of variation, whereas variety RSI 20 exhibited the lowest. Analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA showed that 88.39% of the total genetic variation was attributed to intra-varietal variance. The cluster analysis for individual samples and varieties revealed differences in their population structures: variety Zuzana showed a very high level of genetic variation, Banat and Ghareh were divided in subpopulations, while Pecy and RSI 20 were relatively uniform. Ways of exploiting the investigated germplasm in the breeding programs are suggested in this paper, depending on their population structure and diversity. The RAPD analysis shows potential to be applied in analysis of parental populations in semi-hybrid alfalfa breeding program in both, development of new homogenous germplasm, and identification of promising, complementary germplasm.

  17. Estimation of Disability Weights in the General Population of South Korea Using a Paired Comparison.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minsu Ock

    Full Text Available We estimated the disability weights in the South Korean population by using a paired comparison-only model wherein 'full health' and 'being dead' were included as anchor points, without resorting to a cardinal method, such as person trade-off. The study was conducted via 2 types of survey: a household survey involving computer-assisted face-to-face interviews and a web-based survey (similar to that of the GBD 2010 disability weight study. With regard to the valuation methods, paired comparison, visual analogue scale (VAS, and standard gamble (SG were used in the household survey, whereas paired comparison and population health equivalence (PHE were used in the web-based survey. Accordingly, we described a total of 258 health states, with 'full health' and 'being dead' designated as anchor points. In the analysis, 4 models were considered: a paired comparison-only model; hybrid model between paired comparison and PHE; VAS model; and SG model. A total of 2,728 and 3,188 individuals participated in the household and web-based survey, respectively. The Pearson correlation coefficients of the disability weights of health states between the GBD 2010 study and the current models were 0.802 for Model 2, 0.796 for Model 1, 0.681 for Model 3, and 0.574 for Model 4 (all P-values<0.001. The discrimination of values according to health state severity was most suitable in Model 1. Based on these results, the paired comparison-only model was selected as the best model for estimating disability weights in South Korea, and for maintaining simplicity in the analysis. Thus, disability weights can be more easily estimated by using paired comparison alone, with 'full health' and 'being dead' as one of the health states. As noted in our study, we believe that additional evidence regarding the universality of disability weight can be observed by using a simplified methodology of estimating disability weights.

  18. Burden of diabetes mellitus estimated with a longitudinal population-based study using administrative databases.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luciana Scalone

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To assess the epidemiologic and economic burden of diabetes mellitus (DM from a longitudinal population-based study. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Lombardy Region includes 9.9 million individuals. Its DM population was identified through a data warehouse (DENALI, which matches with a probabilistic linkage demographic, clinical and economic data of different Healthcare Administrative databases. All individuals, who, during the year 2000 had an hospital discharge with a IDC-9 CM code 250.XX, and/or two consecutive prescriptions of drugs for diabetes (ATC code A10XXXX within one year, and/or an exemption from co-payment healthcare costs specific for DM, were selected and followed up to 9 years. We calculated prevalence, mortality and healthcare costs (hospitalizations, drugs and outpatient examinations/visits from the National Health Service's perspective. RESULTS: We identified 312,223 eligible subjects. The study population (51% male had a mean age of 66 (from 0.03 to 105.12 years at the index date. Prevalence ranged from 0.4% among subjects aged ≤45 years to 10.1% among those >85 years old. Overall 43.4 deaths per 1,000 patients per year were estimated, significantly (p<0.001 higher in men than women. Overall, 3,315€/patient-year were spent on average: hospitalizations were the cost driver (54.2% of total cost. Drugs contributed to 31.5%, outpatient claims represented 14.3% of total costs. Thirty-five percent of hospital costs were attributable to cerebro-/cardiovascular reasons, 6% to other complications of DM, and 4% to DM as a main diagnosis. Cardiovascular drugs contributed to 33.5% of total drug costs, 21.8% was attributable to class A (16.7% to class A10 and 4.3% to class B (2.4% to class B01 drugs. CONCLUSIONS: Merging different administrative databases can provide with many data from large populations observed for long time periods. DENALI shows to be an efficient instrument to obtain accurate estimates of burden of

  19. Sample Size Calculations for Population Size Estimation Studies Using Multiplier Methods With Respondent-Driven Sampling Surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fearon, Elizabeth; Chabata, Sungai T; Thompson, Jennifer A; Cowan, Frances M; Hargreaves, James R

    2017-09-14

    While guidance exists for obtaining population size estimates using multiplier methods with respondent-driven sampling surveys, we lack specific guidance for making sample size decisions. To guide the design of multiplier method population size estimation studies using respondent-driven sampling surveys to reduce the random error around the estimate obtained. The population size estimate is obtained by dividing the number of individuals receiving a service or the number of unique objects distributed (M) by the proportion of individuals in a representative survey who report receipt of the service or object (P). We have developed an approach to sample size calculation, interpreting methods to estimate the variance around estimates obtained using multiplier methods in conjunction with research into design effects and respondent-driven sampling. We describe an application to estimate the number of female sex workers in Harare, Zimbabwe. There is high variance in estimates. Random error around the size estimate reflects uncertainty from M and P, particularly when the estimate of P in the respondent-driven sampling survey is low. As expected, sample size requirements are higher when the design effect of the survey is assumed to be greater. We suggest a method for investigating the effects of sample size on the precision of a population size estimate obtained using multipler methods and respondent-driven sampling. Uncertainty in the size estimate is high, particularly when P is small, so balancing against other potential sources of bias, we advise researchers to consider longer service attendance reference periods and to distribute more unique objects, which is likely to result in a higher estimate of P in the respondent-driven sampling survey. ©Elizabeth Fearon, Sungai T Chabata, Jennifer A Thompson, Frances M Cowan, James R Hargreaves. Originally published in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance (http://publichealth.jmir.org), 14.09.2017.

  20. Estimating Population Turnover Rates by Relative Quantification Methods Reveals Microbial Dynamics in Marine Sediment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevorkian, Richard; Bird, Jordan T; Shumaker, Alexander; Lloyd, Karen G

    2018-01-01

    The difficulty involved in quantifying biogeochemically significant microbes in marine sediments limits our ability to assess interspecific interactions, population turnover times, and niches of uncultured taxa. We incubated surface sediments from Cape Lookout Bight, North Carolina, USA, anoxically at 21°C for 122 days. Sulfate decreased until day 68, after which methane increased, with hydrogen concentrations consistent with the predicted values of an electron donor exerting thermodynamic control. We measured turnover times using two relative quantification methods, quantitative PCR (qPCR) and the product of 16S gene read abundance and total cell abundance (FRAxC, which stands for "fraction of read abundance times cells"), to estimate the population turnover rates of uncultured clades. Most 16S rRNA reads were from deeply branching uncultured groups, and ∼98% of 16S rRNA genes did not abruptly shift in relative abundance when sulfate reduction gave way to methanogenesis. Uncultured Methanomicrobiales and Methanosarcinales increased at the onset of methanogenesis with population turnover times estimated from qPCR at 9.7 ± 3.9 and 12.6 ± 4.1 days, respectively. These were consistent with FRAxC turnover times of 9.4 ± 5.8 and 9.2 ± 3.5 days, respectively. Uncultured Syntrophaceae , which are possibly fermentative syntrophs of methanogens, and uncultured Kazan-3A-21 archaea also increased at the onset of methanogenesis, with FRAxC turnover times of 14.7 ± 6.9 and 10.6 ± 3.6 days. Kazan-3A-21 may therefore either perform methanogenesis or form a fermentative syntrophy with methanogens. Three genera of sulfate-reducing bacteria, Desulfovibrio , Desulfobacter , and Desulfobacterium , increased in the first 19 days before declining rapidly during sulfate reduction. We conclude that population turnover times on the order of days can be measured robustly in organic-rich marine sediment, and the transition from sulfate-reducing to methanogenic conditions stimulates

  1. Fatigue characteristics of ODS surface treated Zircaloy-4

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Sun Han; Jung, Yan gIl; Park, Dong Jun; Park, Jung Hwan; Kim, Hyun Gil; Yang, Jae Ho; Koo, Yang Hyun [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    Various accident tolerant fuel (ATF) cladding concepts are considered and have being developed to increase the oxidation resistance and ballooning/ rupture resistance of current Zr-based cladding material under accident conditions. One concept is to form an oxidation-resistant layer on Zr cladding surface. The other is to increase high temperature mechanical strength of Zr tube. The oxide dispersion strengthened (ODS) zirconium was proposed to increase the strength of the Zr-based alloy up to high temperatures. ODS treatment is a way of improve the high temperature- oxidation resistant and mechanical stress by disperse the hardened particles inside of metal to interrupt the movement of the electric potential. In this study, the accident tolerance improved zirconium alloy by the ODS surface treatment was evaluated for the fatigue characteristics which is one of the significant items of the integrity assessment.

  2. Void formation in ODS EUROFER produced by hot isostatic pressing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ortega, Y.; Monge, M.A.; Castro, V. de; Munoz, A.; Leguey, T.; Pareja, R.

    2009-01-01

    Positron annihilation experiments were performed on oxide dispersion strengthened (ODS) and non-ODS EUROFER prepared by mechanical alloying and hot isostatic pressing. The results revealed the presence of small voids in these materials in the as-HIPed conditions. Their evolution under isochronal annealing experiments was investigated. The coincidence Doppler broadening spectra of ODS EUROFER exhibited a characteristic signature attributed to positron annihilation in Ar-decorated voids at the oxide particle/matrix interfaces. The variation of the positron annihilation parameters with the annealing temperature showed three stages: up to 623 K, between 823 and 1323 K, and above 1323 K. In the temperature range 823-1323 K void coarsening had effect. Above 1323 K some voids annealed out, but others, associated to oxide particles and small precipitates, survived to annealing at 1523 K. Transmission electron microscopy observations were also performed to verify the characteristics of the surviving defects after annealing at 1523 K.

  3. Void formation in ODS EUROFER produced by hot isostatic pressing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ortega, Y. [Departamento de Fisica, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, 28911 Leganes (Spain)], E-mail: yanicet@fis.ucm.es; Monge, M.A. [Departamento de Fisica, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, 28911 Leganes (Spain); Castro, V. de [Department of Materials, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3PH (United Kingdom); Munoz, A.; Leguey, T.; Pareja, R. [Departamento de Fisica, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, 28911 Leganes (Spain)

    2009-04-30

    Positron annihilation experiments were performed on oxide dispersion strengthened (ODS) and non-ODS EUROFER prepared by mechanical alloying and hot isostatic pressing. The results revealed the presence of small voids in these materials in the as-HIPed conditions. Their evolution under isochronal annealing experiments was investigated. The coincidence Doppler broadening spectra of ODS EUROFER exhibited a characteristic signature attributed to positron annihilation in Ar-decorated voids at the oxide particle/matrix interfaces. The variation of the positron annihilation parameters with the annealing temperature showed three stages: up to 623 K, between 823 and 1323 K, and above 1323 K. In the temperature range 823-1323 K void coarsening had effect. Above 1323 K some voids annealed out, but others, associated to oxide particles and small precipitates, survived to annealing at 1523 K. Transmission electron microscopy observations were also performed to verify the characteristics of the surviving defects after annealing at 1523 K.

  4. Zircaloy cladding ID/OD oxidation studies. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Westerman, R.E.; Hesson, G.M.

    1977-11-01

    The ID/OD oxide ratio that forms on Zircaloy tubing at temperatures relevant to postulated LOCA conditions was measured as a function of time, temperature, and distance from the rupture. The average ratio at the rupture position was less than unity, and decreased with decreasing test time and increasing distance from the point of rupture. The maximum observed ID/OD oxide ratio was 1.4. Ratios in excess of unity were typically found to be a consequence of the OD oxide being thinner than would have been anticipated from the nominal test conditions. Confirmatory data were also obtained on the isothermal oxidation kinetics of Zircaloy. These data are in good agreement with those obtained by other investigators and confirm the conservative nature of the Baker-Just equation that is required for use in licensing calculations

  5. STS-74 view of ODS from Payload Changout Room

    Science.gov (United States)

    1995-01-01

    Workers at Launch Pad 39A are preparing to close the payload bay doors on the Space Shuttle Atlantis for its upcoming launch on Mission STS-74 and the second docking with the Russian Space Station Mir. Uppermost in the payload bay is the Orbiter Docking System (ODS), which also flew on the first docking flight between the Space Shuttle and MIR. Lowermost is the primary payload of STS-74, the Russian-built Docking Module. During the mission, the Docking Module will first be attached to ODS and then to Mir. It will be left attached to Mir to become a permanent extension that will afford adequate clearance between the orbiter and the station during future dockings. At left in the payload bay, looking like a very long pole, is the Canadian-built Remote Manipulator System arm that will be used by the crew to hoist the Docking Module and attach it to the ODS.

  6. Supplemental report on population estimates for Hanford high-level defense waste draft programmatic environmental impact statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yandon, K.E.; Landstrom, D.K.

    1980-06-01

    Current and revised population projections based on those previously published in the document Population Distribution in 90-mile Radius of Hanford Meteorological Station and Projections to Year 2300 by Compass Sector and 10 Mile Radii are presented. In addition, there was a need to extend the population estimates out to 1000 and 10,000 years into the future to permit estimation of population radiation doses from accidents affecting the Hanford Facilities directly related to the defense high-level waste disposal alternatives. The methodology used in making the estimates is presented along with the detailed population matrix data required for performing the dose calculations. Although the near-term overall population projections are probably reasonably correct, no claim is made for the accuracy of the detailed data within each individual sector. Long-term estimates are made using reasonable assumptions about the growth potential and possibilities in the Hanford area. No claim of accuracy of these figures is made since they are so highly dependent on actions and conditions that are not predictable. For example, if a major climate change were to occur, the entire Hanford area might be uninhabited at 10,000 years in the future. To provide conservative dose estimates, it was assumed that the Hanford population will experience reasonable and continuous growth throughout the 10,000 year period

  7. The dynamics of the reaction of 16O(1D)+D218O→16OD+18OD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guillory, W.A.; Gericke, K.H.; Comes, F.J.

    1983-01-01

    The detailed energy partitioning in the reaction of a metastable oxygen atom O( 1 D) with D 2 O proceeding to two OD molecules has been studied. In order to distinguish the product state distribution between the two chemically identical product molecules OD, the oxygen atom in the heavy water molecule was labeled isotopically. The use of spectroscopic methods allows a complete analysis of the products' state distribution including such fine details as the distribution of the different #betta# components and of the electron spin. The vibrational energy is almost exclusively channeled into the new ( 16 OD) bond, whereas the original ( 18 OD) bond is produced (>90%) in the ground vibrational state. Both OD radicals show a broad rotational excitation and the rotational energy is equally partitioned among the two bonds. The energy distribution over the rovibrational levels strongly reflects the influence of coincident product molecules emerging from this chemical reaction. The reaction is very direct and must proceed on a time scale which does not allow for efficient energy transfer into all the available phase space

  8. Atom probe characterization of yttria particles in ODS Eurofer steel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aleev, A.A.; Zaluzhny, A.G.; Nikitin, A.A.; Rogozhkin, S.V.; Iskandarov, N.A.; Vladimirov, P.; Moeslang, A.; Lindau, R.; Klimenkov, M.

    2009-01-01

    Oxide dispersion strengthened steels exhibit higher temperature and radiation resistance than conventionally produced ferritic/martensitic steels. Such behaviour, as believed, is mainly caused by presence of highly dispersed and extremely stable oxide particles with sizes of few nanometers. It was shown that the most promising oxide additive was yttria (Y 2 O 3 ) and as mechanical parameters were strongly depended on size and number density of formed peculiarities it is required to reduce their dimensions to few nanometers and drastically increase their number. At present, considerable effort is focused on investigation of behaviour and properties of such particles. Recent studies of Eurofer ODS steel (9%-CrWVTa) by SANS and PoAS revealed the presence of high number density structural peculiarities with size approximately one nanometer. At the same time, previous studies by TEM identified only high number of small (5-10 nm) Y 2 O 3 particles. So, the purpose of this work was to look into this material by means of tomographic atom probe and find out the chemistry and origin of peculiarities with sizes less than 5 nm. These investigations revealed fine (∼ 2 nm) particles that were enriched not only in yttrium and oxygen but also in vanadium and nitrogen. Concentration of vanadium in them is approximately at the same level as yttrium. Moreover, some particles were found to be enriched in only three or even two elements mentioned above. However, total concentration of chemical elements in these particles is considerably less than that of iron. Estimated number density for detected particles is (1 / 5) x 10 23 m -3 . (author)

  9. Lifetime ultraviolet exposure estimates for selected population groups in south-east Queensland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parisi, A.V.; Meldrum, L.R.; Wong, J.C.F.; Fleming, R.A.; Aitken, J.

    1999-01-01

    The lifetime erythemal UV exposures received by selected population groups in south-east Queensland from birth up to an age of 55 years have been quantitatively estimated. A representative sample of teachers and other school workers received (64±22)x10 5 J m -2 to the neck compared with (4.1±1.4)x10 5 Jm -2 to the upper leg. A sample of indoor workers (bank officers, solicitors and psychologists) received approximately 2% less and a sample of outdoor workers (carpenters, tilers, electricians and labourers) received approximately 10% more to the neck than the school workers. These differences in erythemal UV exposures may influence the risk of non-melanoma skin cancer. (author)

  10. Estimates of population distributions and tailings areas around licensed uranium mill sites. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hans, J.M.; Hall, J.B.; Moore, W.E.

    1986-08-01

    Population distributions and tailings areas were estimated from aerial photography for each of 21 licensed uranium millsites. Approximately 11,600 persons live within 5 kilometers of the tailings impoundments at the millsites. About 82% of these persons live near five of the millsites. No persons were found living within 5 kilometers of six of the millsites. Tailings area measurements include the surface area of tailings in impoundments, heap-leached ore, and carryover tailings in evaporation ponds. Approximately 4,000 acres of tailings surfaces were measured for the 21 millsites. About 55% of the tailings surfaces were dry, 11% wet, and the remainder ponded. The average tailings surface area for the millsites is about 200 acres and ranges from 7 to 813 acres

  11. Effect of water resource development and management on lymphatic filariasis, and estimates of populations at risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erlanger, Tobias E; Keiser, Jennifer; Caldas De Castro, Marcia; Bos, Robert; Singer, Burton H; Tanner, Marcel; Utzinger, Jürg

    2005-09-01

    Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a debilitating disease overwhelmingly caused by Wuchereria bancrofti, which is transmitted by various mosquito species. Here, we present a systematic literature review with the following objectives: (i) to establish global and regional estimates of populations at risk of LF with particular consideration of water resource development projects, and (ii) to assess the effects of water resource development and management on the frequency and transmission dynamics of the disease. We estimate that globally, 2 billion people are at risk of LF. Among them, there are 394.5 million urban dwellers without access to improved sanitation and 213 million rural dwellers living in close proximity to irrigation. Environmental changes due to water resource development and management consistently led to a shift in vector species composition and generally to a strong proliferation of vector populations. For example, in World Health Organization (WHO) subregions 1 and 2, mosquito densities of the Anopheles gambiae complex and Anopheles funestus were up to 25-fold higher in irrigated areas when compared with irrigation-free sites. Although the infection prevalence of LF often increased after the implementation of a water project, there was no clear association with clinical symptoms. Concluding, there is a need to assess and quantify changes of LF transmission parameters and clinical manifestations over the entire course of water resource developments. Where resources allow, integrated vector management should complement mass drug administration, and broad-based monitoring and surveillance of the disease should become an integral part of large-scale waste management and sanitation programs, whose basic rationale lies in a systemic approach to city, district, and regional level health services and disease prevention.

  12. Distribution of Estimated 10-Year Risk of Recurrent Vascular Events and Residual Risk in a Secondary Prevention Population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kaasenbrood, Lotte; Boekholdt, S. Matthijs; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Ray, Kausik K.; Peters, Ron J. G.; Kastelein, John J. P.; Amarenco, Pierre; LaRosa, John C.; Cramer, Maarten J. M.; Westerink, Jan; Kappelle, L. Jaap; de Borst, Gert J.; Visseren, Frank L. J.

    2016-01-01

    Among patients with clinically manifest vascular disease, the risk of recurrent vascular events is likely to vary. We assessed the distribution of estimated 10-year risk of recurrent vascular events in a secondary prevention population. We also estimated the potential risk reduction and residual

  13. Distribution of Estimated 10-Year Risk of Recurrent Vascular Events and Residual Risk in a Secondary Prevention Population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kaasenbrood, Lotte; Boekholdt, S. Matthijs; Van Der Graaf, Yolanda; Ray, Kausik K.; Peters, Ron J G; Kastelein, John J P; Amarenco, Pierre; Larosa, John C.; Cramer, Maarten J M; Westerink, Jan; Kappelle, L. Jaap; De Borst, Gert J.; Visseren, Frank L J

    2016-01-01

    Background: Among patients with clinically manifest vascular disease, the risk of recurrent vascular events is likely to vary. We assessed the distribution of estimated 10-year risk of recurrent vascular events in a secondary prevention population. We also estimated the potential risk reduction and

  14. The filler powders laser welding of ODS ferritic steels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liang, Shenyong, E-mail: s_y_liang@126.com; Lei, Yucheng; Zhu, Qiang

    2015-01-15

    Laser welding was performed on Oxide Dispersion Strengthened (ODS) ferritic steel with the self-designed filler powders. The filler powders were added to weld metal to produce nano-particles (Y–M–O and TiC), submicron particles (Y–M–O) and dislocation rings. The generated particles were evenly distributed in the weld metal and their forming mechanism and behavior were analyzed. The results of the tests showed that the nano-particles, submicron particles and dislocation rings were able to improve the micro-hardness and tensile strength of welded joint, and the filler powders laser welding was an effective welding method of ODS ferritic steel.

  15. Scoring the Icecap-A Capability Instrument. Estimation of a UK General Population Tariff†

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flynn, Terry N; Huynh, Elisabeth; Peters, Tim J; Al-Janabi, Hareth; Clemens, Sam; Moody, Alison; Coast, Joanna

    2015-01-01

    This paper reports the results of a best–worst scaling (BWS) study to value the Investigating Choice Experiments Capability Measure for Adults (ICECAP-A), a new capability measure among adults, in a UK setting. A main effects plan plus its foldover was used to estimate weights for each of the four levels of all five attributes. The BWS study was administered to 413 randomly sampled individuals, together with sociodemographic and other questions. Scale-adjusted latent class analyses identified two preference and two (variance) scale classes. Ability to characterize preference and scale heterogeneity was limited, but data quality was good, and the final model exhibited a high pseudo-r-squared. After adjusting for heterogeneity, a population tariff was estimated. This showed that ‘attachment’ and ‘stability’ each account for around 22% of the space, and ‘autonomy’, ‘achievement’ and ‘enjoyment’ account for around 18% each. Across all attributes, greater value was placed on the difference between the lowest levels of capability than between the highest. This tariff will enable ICECAP-A to be used in economic evaluation both within the field of health and across public policy generally. © 2013 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. PMID:24254584

  16. Estimation of background radiation doses for the Peninsular Malaysia's population by ESR dosimetry of tooth enamel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodzi, Mohd; Zhumadilov, Kassym; Ohtaki, Megu; Ivannikov, Alexander; Bhattacharjee, Deborshi; Fukumura, Akifumi; Hoshi, Masaharu

    2011-08-01

    Background radiation dose is used in dosimetry for estimating occupational doses of radiation workers or determining radiation dose of an individual following accidental exposure. In the present study, the absorbed dose and the background radiation level are determined using the electron spin resonance (ESR) method on tooth samples. The effect of using different tooth surfaces and teeth exposed with single medical X-rays on the absorbed dose are also evaluated. A total of 48 molars of position 6-8 were collected from 13 district hospitals in Peninsular Malaysia. Thirty-six teeth had not been exposed to any excessive radiation, and 12 teeth had been directly exposed to a single X-ray dose during medical treatment prior to extraction. There was no significant effect of tooth surfaces and exposure with single X-rays on the measured absorbed dose of an individual. The mean measured absorbed dose of the population is 34 ± 6.2 mGy, with an average tooth enamel age of 39 years. From the slope of a regression line, the estimated annual background dose for Peninsular Malaysia is 0.6 ± 0.3 mGy y(-1). This value is slightly lower than the yearly background dose for Malaysia, and the radiation background dose is established by ESR tooth measurements on samples from India and Russia.

  17. Scoring the Icecap-a capability instrument. Estimation of a UK general population tariff.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flynn, Terry N; Huynh, Elisabeth; Peters, Tim J; Al-Janabi, Hareth; Clemens, Sam; Moody, Alison; Coast, Joanna

    2015-03-01

    This paper reports the results of a best-worst scaling (BWS) study to value the Investigating Choice Experiments Capability Measure for Adults (ICECAP-A), a new capability measure among adults, in a UK setting. A main effects plan plus its foldover was used to estimate weights for each of the four levels of all five attributes. The BWS study was administered to 413 randomly sampled individuals, together with sociodemographic and other questions. Scale-adjusted latent class analyses identified two preference and two (variance) scale classes. Ability to characterize preference and scale heterogeneity was limited, but data quality was good, and the final model exhibited a high pseudo-r-squared. After adjusting for heterogeneity, a population tariff was estimated. This showed that 'attachment' and 'stability' each account for around 22% of the space, and 'autonomy', 'achievement' and 'enjoyment' account for around 18% each. Across all attributes, greater value was placed on the difference between the lowest levels of capability than between the highest. This tariff will enable ICECAP-A to be used in economic evaluation both within the field of health and across public policy generally. © 2013 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Dental age estimation in a Brazilian adult population using Cameriere’s method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alana de Cássia Silva AZEVEDO

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The objectives of this study were to develop a specific formula to estimate age in a Brazilian adult population and to compare the original formula from Cameriere to this Brazilian formula. The sample comprised 1,772 periapical radiographs from 443 subjects (219 men, 224 women that were organized into 12 groups according to sex (men or women and age (20-29, 30-39, 40-49, 50-59, 60-69, and 70 years and older. The films were analyzed using the criteria described by Cameriere et al. (2004 and Adobe Photoshop®. We obtained a mean error of 8.56 (SD = 5.80 years for tooth 13, 7.99 (SD = 5.78 years for tooth 23, 8.38 (SD = 6.26 years for tooth 33, and 8.20 (SD = 6.54 years for tooth 43. When teeth were combined in the analysis, we observed lower mean errors. The Brazilian formula developed from this sample group was more accurate than Cameriere’s formula. However, other factors must be considered to improve age estimates in adults.

  19. Estimating the population dose from nuclear medicine examinations towards establishing diagnostic reference levels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niksirat, Fatemeh; Monfared, Ali Shabestani; Deevband, Mohammad Reza; Amiri, Mehrangiz; Gholami, Amir

    2016-01-01

    This study conducted a review on nuclear medicine (NM) services in Mazandaran Province with a view to establish adult diagnostic reference levels (DRLs) and provide updated data on population radiation exposure resulting from diagnostic NM procedures. The data were collected from all centers in all cities of Mazandaran Province in the North of Iran from March 2014 to February 2015. The 75 th percentile of the distribution and the average administered activity (AAA) were calculated and the average effective dose per examination, collective effective dose to the population and annual effective dose per capita were estimated using dose conversion factors. The gathered data were analyzed via SPSS (version 18) software using descriptive statistics. Based on the data of this study, the collective effective dose was 95.628 manSv, leading to a mean effective dose of 0.03 mSv per capita. It was also observed that the myocardial perfusion was the most common procedure (50%). The 75 th percentile of the distribution of administered activity (AA) represents the DRL. The AAA and the 75 th percentile of the distribution of AA are slightly higher than DRL of most European countries. Myocardial perfusion is responsible for most of the collective effective dose and it is better to establish national DRLs for myocardial perfusion and review some DRL values through the participation of NM specialists in the future

  20. Population-based estimate of urinary stones from Ballabgarh, northern India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lohiya, Ayush; Kant, Shashi; Kapil, Arti; Gupta, Sanjeev Kumar; Misra, Puneet; Rai, Sanjay K

    2017-01-01

    Stones in the urinary tract are a common condition but there is paucity of data on their population-based estimates in India. We describe our findings of the burden of urinary stones during a cross-sectional study with another primary goal. We conducted the study at Ballabgarh Health and Demographic Surveillance System, Haryana, among residents aged 18 years or above. We used simple random sampling to enrol participants. Self-reported history of urinary stones was elicited through an interview schedule. Results of the descriptive analysis were described as proportions with 95% confidence intervals (CI) or as mean wherever applicable. Bivariate analysis was done using t-test and chi-square test as applicable. The response rate for our study was 86.6%; lifetime prevalence (95% CI) of urinary stones was 7.9% (5.7, 10.8). In a majority of participants, urinary stones were diagnosed at an age of 20-40 years (55.9%), mostly by an ultrasonography examination (94.1%). A high burden of urinary stones is indicated in the working-age population in northern India at the community level. Untreated urinary stones can lead to an acute emergency (colic) or may have long-term adverse consequences, e.g. hydronephrosis, which have implications for the healthcare delivery system.

  1. Genetic admixture estimates by Alu elements in Afro-Colombian and Mestizo populations from Antioquia, Colombia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez-Pérez, Luis; Alfonso-Sánchez, Miguel A; Pérez-Miranda, Ana M; García-Obregón, Susana; Builes, Juan J; Bravo, Maria L; De Pancorbo, Marian M; Peña, José A

    2010-08-01

    This work was intended to gain insights into the admixture processes occurring in Latin American populations by examining the genetic profiles of two ethnic groups from Antioquia (Colombia). To analyse the genetic variability, eight Alu insertions were typed in 64 Afro-Colombians and a reference group of 34 Hispanics (Mestizos). Admixture proportions were estimated using the Weighted Least Squares and the Gene Identity methods. The usefulness of the Alu elements as Ancestry Informative Markers (AIMs) was evaluated through differences in weighted allelic frequencies (delta values) and by hierarchical analysis of the molecular variance (AMOVA). The Afro-Colombian gene pool was largely determined by the African component (88.5-88.8%), but the most prominent feature was the null contribution of European genes. Mestizos were characterized by a major European component (60.0-63.8%) and a comparatively low proportion of Amerindian (19.2-20.7%) and African (17.0-19.3%) genes. Five of the Alu loci examined (ACE, APO, FXIIIB, PV92 and TPA25) showed an adequate resolving power to differentiate between continental groups, as indicated by delta values and AMOVA results. The peculiarity of the Afro-Colombian gene pool seems to be associated with intense genetic drift episodes that occurred in isolated communities founded by small groups of runaway slaves. ACE, APO, FXIIIB, PV92 and TPA25 could be efficiently utilized in studies dealing with demographic history and biogeographical ancestry in human populations.

  2. Estimated ventricle size using Evans index: reference values from a population-based sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaraj, D; Rabiei, K; Marlow, T; Jensen, C; Skoog, I; Wikkelsø, C

    2017-03-01

    Evans index is an estimate of ventricular size used in the diagnosis of idiopathic normal-pressure hydrocephalus (iNPH). Values >0.3 are considered pathological and are required by guidelines for the diagnosis of iNPH. However, there are no previous epidemiological studies on Evans index, and normal values in adults are thus not precisely known. We examined a representative sample to obtain reference values and descriptive data on Evans index. A population-based sample (n = 1235) of men and women aged ≥70 years was examined. The sample comprised people living in private households and residential care, systematically selected from the Swedish population register. Neuropsychiatric examinations, including head computed tomography, were performed between 1986 and 2000. Evans index ranged from 0.11 to 0.46. The mean value in the total sample was 0.28 (SD, 0.04) and 20.6% (n = 255) had values >0.3. Among men aged ≥80 years, the mean value of Evans index was 0.3 (SD, 0.03). Individuals with dementia had a mean value of Evans index of 0.31 (SD, 0.05) and those with radiological signs of iNPH had a mean value of 0.36 (SD, 0.04). A substantial number of subjects had ventricular enlargement according to current criteria. Clinicians and researchers need to be aware of the range of values among older individuals. © 2017 EAN.

  3. Flavonoids in vegetable foods commonly consumed in Brazil and estimated ingestion by the Brazilian population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arabbi, Paola R; Genovese, Maria Inés; Lajolo, Franco M

    2004-03-10

    The objective of this work was to quantify the flavonoids present in foods most commonly consumed by the Brazilian population. The predominant flavonoids found in largest abundance in all of the analyzed vegetables were glycosides of quercetin. In lettuce, a small amount of luteolin was also detected. In sweet pepper, quercetin and luteolin were both present. White onion [48-56 mg/100 g of fresh weight (FW), expressed as aglycon], red onion (40-100 mg/100 g of FW), red lettuce (67-67.2 mg/100 g of FW), arugula (41-118 mg/100 g of FW), and chicory (18-38 mg/100 g of FW) were highest in total flavonoids. In fruits, the highest concentrations of flavonoids were found in the peel (125-170 mg/100 g of FW) and pulp (35-44 mg/100 g of FW) of oranges and in some apple varieties (14-36 mg/100 g of FW). Variability in flavonoid content due to time of harvesting was high for leafy vegetables and red onions. The estimated ingestion by Brazilian population ranged from 60 to 106 mg/day.

  4. Estimation of beverage consumption and associated caloric intake in adult Czech population. An observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adámková, Věra; Hubáček, Jaroslav A; Zimmelová, Petra; Velemínský, Miloš

    2011-01-01

    Food intake is a commonly monitored issue in many studies. In contrast, almost no information has been published on beverage intake in adults. To evaluate beverage intake, we studied a population of 1, 200 adults (656 males and 544 females, aged 18-54 years). The volumes and types of beverages were obtained from self-reported questionnaires. The mean beverage intake was highly variable, with a minimum of 450 mL/day and a maximum of 5,330 mL/day. A mean of 1,575 mL/day was found in the entire population (2,300 mL in males and 840 mL in females). Different patterns in the consumption of beverage types were observed between the males and females. For both males and females, the most common beverage consumed was water followed by tea. The next preferable beverages were alcoholic beer, coffee, and non-alcoholic beer in males and coffee, milk, and alcoholic beer in females. The estimated caloric intake from beverages covers, in most individuals, 10-30% of the recommended daily caloric intake. There is substantial variation among individuals, both in beverage intake and in caloric intake through beverages. The caloric intake from beverages reaches, in some individuals, one-third of the recommended daily caloric rate. © 2011 Neuroendocrinology Letters

  5. Estimating the effects of 17α-ethinylestradiol on stochastic population growth rate of fathead minnows: a population synthesis of empirically derived vital rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwindt, Adam R.; Winkelman, Dana L.

    2016-01-01

    Urban freshwater streams in arid climates are wastewater effluent dominated ecosystems particularly impacted by bioactive chemicals including steroid estrogens that disrupt vertebrate reproduction. However, more understanding of the population and ecological consequences of exposure to wastewater effluent is needed. We used empirically derived vital rate estimates from a mesocosm study to develop a stochastic stage-structured population model and evaluated the effect of 17α-ethinylestradiol (EE2), the estrogen in human contraceptive pills, on fathead minnow Pimephales promelas stochastic population growth rate. Tested EE2 concentrations ranged from 3.2 to 10.9 ng L−1 and produced stochastic population growth rates (λ S ) below 1 at the lowest concentration, indicating potential for population decline. Declines in λ S compared to controls were evident in treatments that were lethal to adult males despite statistically insignificant effects on egg production and juvenile recruitment. In fact, results indicated that λ S was most sensitive to the survival of juveniles and female egg production. More broadly, our results document that population model results may differ even when empirically derived estimates of vital rates are similar among experimental treatments, and demonstrate how population models integrate and project the effects of stressors throughout the life cycle. Thus, stochastic population models can more effectively evaluate the ecological consequences of experimentally derived vital rates.

  6. Gauging the threat: the first population estimate for white sharks in South Africa using photo identification and automated software.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alison V Towner

    Full Text Available South Africa is reputed to host the world's largest remaining population of white sharks, yet no studies have accurately determined a population estimate based on mark-recapture of live individuals. We used dorsal fin photographs (fin IDs to identify white sharks in Gansbaai, South Africa, from January 2007-December 2011. We used the computer programme DARWIN to catalogue and match fin IDs of individuals; this is the first study to successfully use the software for white shark identification. The programme performed well despite a number of individual fins showing drastic changes in dorsal fin shape over time. Of 1682 fin IDs used, 532 unique individuals were identified. We estimated population size using the open-population POPAN parameterisation in Program MARK, which estimated the superpopulation size at 908 (95% confidence interval 808-1008. This estimated population size is considerably larger than those described at other aggregation areas of the species and is comparable to a previous South African population estimate conducted 16 years prior. Our assessment suggests the species has not made a marked recovery since being nationally protected in 1991. As such, additional international protection may prove vital for the long-term conservation of this threatened species.

  7. Population Estimates and Projections: Projections of the Population of the United States, 1975 to 2050. Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 601.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibson, Campbell; Wetrogan, Signe

    This report presents population projections of the United States by age, sex, and the components of population changes, births, deaths, and net immigration. These projections are shown annually by race--white and black--from 1975 to 2000 and in less detail for the total population from 2000 to 2050. In 1974, the population of the United States,…

  8. Multinomial N-mixture models improve the applicability of electrofishing for developing population estimates of stream-dwelling Smallmouth Bass

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mollenhauer, Robert; Brewer, Shannon K.

    2017-01-01

    Failure to account for variable detection across survey conditions constrains progressive stream ecology and can lead to erroneous stream fish management and conservation decisions. In addition to variable detection’s confounding long-term stream fish population trends, reliable abundance estimates across a wide range of survey conditions are fundamental to establishing species–environment relationships. Despite major advancements in accounting for variable detection when surveying animal populations, these approaches remain largely ignored by stream fish scientists, and CPUE remains the most common metric used by researchers and managers. One notable advancement for addressing the challenges of variable detection is the multinomial N-mixture model. Multinomial N-mixture models use a flexible hierarchical framework to model the detection process across sites as a function of covariates; they also accommodate common fisheries survey methods, such as removal and capture–recapture. Effective monitoring of stream-dwelling Smallmouth Bass Micropterus dolomieu populations has long been challenging; therefore, our objective was to examine the use of multinomial N-mixture models to improve the applicability of electrofishing for estimating absolute abundance. We sampled Smallmouth Bass populations by using tow-barge electrofishing across a range of environmental conditions in streams of the Ozark Highlands ecoregion. Using an information-theoretic approach, we identified effort, water clarity, wetted channel width, and water depth as covariates that were related to variable Smallmouth Bass electrofishing detection. Smallmouth Bass abundance estimates derived from our top model consistently agreed with baseline estimates obtained via snorkel surveys. Additionally, confidence intervals from the multinomial N-mixture models were consistently more precise than those of unbiased Petersen capture–recapture estimates due to the dependency among data sets in the

  9. Screening effects on thyroid cancer risk estimates for populations affected by the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacob, P.; Kaiser, J. C.; Vavilov, S.E.; Bogdanova, T.; Tronko, N. D.

    2004-01-01

    considerably lower than what can be expected for the cohort study. Assuming less expressed screening effects for radiation induced cancer, excess relativerisks in the populationa re considerably higher than what would be the outcome of the cohort study. Results of ecologic studies are useful for estimations of populations risks due to accidental releases of radioiodine to the environment, results of cohort studies have the potential ti improve the understanding of the carcinogenesis after incorporation of radioiodine. (Author)

  10. Using dynamic stochastic modelling to estimate population risk factors in infectious disease: the example of FIV in 15 cat populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Fouchet

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In natural cat populations, Feline Immunodeficiency Virus (FIV is transmitted through bites between individuals. Factors such as the density of cats within the population or the sex-ratio can have potentially strong effects on the frequency of fight between individuals and hence appear as important population risk factors for FIV. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To study such population risk factors, we present data on FIV prevalence in 15 cat populations in northeastern France. We investigate five key social factors of cat populations; the density of cats, the sex-ratio, the number of males and the mean age of males and females within the population. We overcome the problem of dependence in the infective status data using sexually-structured dynamic stochastic models. Only the age of males and females had an effect (p = 0.043 and p = 0.02, respectively on the male-to-female transmission rate. Due to multiple tests, it is even likely that these effects are, in reality, not significant. Finally we show that, in our study area, the data can be explained by a very simple model that does not invoke any risk factor. CONCLUSION: Our conclusion is that, in host-parasite systems in general, fluctuations due to stochasticity in the transmission process are naturally very large and may alone explain a larger part of the variability in observed disease prevalence between populations than previously expected. Finally, we determined confidence intervals for the simple model parameters that can be used to further aid in management of the disease.

  11. Behaviour of new ODS alloys under single and multiple deformation

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Mašek, B.; Khalaj, O.; Nový, Z.; Kubina, T.; Jirková, H.; Svoboda, Jiří; Stadler, C.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 50, č. 6 (2016), s. 891-898 ISSN 1580-2949 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA14-24252S Institutional support: RVO:68081723 Keywords : ODS alloys * composite * steel * Fe-Al Subject RIV: JI - Composite Materials Impact factor: 0.436, year: 2016

  12. Reactions of Three Lactones with Cl, OD, and O3

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ausmeel, Stina; Andersen, C.; Nielsen, Ole John

    2017-01-01

    -methyl-γ-crotonolactone (3M-2(5H)-F) with Cl, OD, and O3 were investigated in a static chamber at 700 Torr and 298 ± 2 K. The relative rate method was used to determine kGVL+Cl = (4.56 ± 0.51) × 10-11, kGVL+OD = (2.94 ± 0.41) × 10-11, k2(5H)-F+Cl = (2.94 ± 0.41) × 10-11, k2(5H)-F+OD = (4.06 ± 0.073) × 10-12, k3M-2(5H......)-F+Cl = (16.1 ± 1.8) × 10-11, and k3M-2(5H)-F+OD = (12.6 ± 0.52) × 10-12, all rate coefficients in units of cm3 molecule-1 s-1. An absolute rate method was used to determine k2(5H)-F+O3 = (6.73 ± 0.18) × 10-20 and k3M-2(5H)-F+O3 = (5.42 ± 1.23) × 10-19 in units of cm3 molecule-1 s-1. Products were identified...

  13. High temperature deformation mechanisms in the 14% Cr ODS alloy

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šiška, Filip; Stratil, Luděk; Hadraba, Hynek; Fintová, Stanislava; Kuběna, Ivo; Záležák, Tomáš; Bártková, Denisa

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 689, MAR (2017), s. 34-39 ISSN 0921-5093 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA14-25246S; GA ČR GJ15-21292Y Institutional support: RVO:68081723 Keywords : ODS steel * Plastic ity * Stress relaxation * Dislocations Subject RIV: JG - Metallurgy OBOR OECD: Materials engineering Impact factor: 3.094, year: 2016

  14. Region-wide and ecotype-specific differences in demographic histories of threespine stickleback populations, estimated from whole genome sequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Shenglin; Hansen, Michael M; Jacobsen, Magnus W

    2016-10-01

    We analysed 81 whole genome sequences of threespine sticklebacks from Pacific North America, Greenland and Northern Europe, representing 16 populations. Principal component analysis of nuclear SNPs grouped populations according to geographical location, with Pacific populations being more divergent from each other relative to European and Greenlandic populations. Analysis of mitogenome sequences showed Northern European populations to represent a single phylogeographical lineage, whereas Greenlandic and particularly Pacific populations showed admixture between lineages. We estimated demographic history using a genomewide coalescence with recombination approach. The Pacific populations showed gradual population expansion starting >100 Kya, possibly reflecting persistence in cryptic refuges near the present distributional range, although we do not rule out possible influence of ancient admixture. Sharp population declines ca. 14-15 Kya were suggested to reflect founding of freshwater populations by marine ancestors. In Greenland and Northern Europe, demographic expansion started ca. 20-25 Kya coinciding with the end of the Last Glacial Maximum. In both regions, marine and freshwater populations started to show different demographic trajectories ca. 8-9 Kya, suggesting that this was the time of recolonization. In Northern Europe, this estimate was surprisingly late, but found support in subfossil evidence for presence of several freshwater fish species but not sticklebacks 12 Kya. The results demonstrate distinctly different demographic histories across geographical regions with potential consequences for adaptive processes. They also provide empirical support for previous assumptions about freshwater populations being founded independently from large, coherent marine populations, a key element in the Transporter Hypothesis invoked to explain the widespread occurrence of parallel evolution across freshwater stickleback populations. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Friction Stir Processing of ODS and FM Steels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Suk Hoon; Chun, Young Bum; Noh, Sang Hoon; Jang, Jin Sung; Kim, Tae Kyu [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-10-15

    In ODS steels, it is well known that uniform nano-oxide dispersoids act as pinning points to obstruct dislocation and grain boundary motion, however, those advantages will be disappeared while the material is subjected to the high temperature of conventional fusion welding. Rotary friction welding, also referred to as friction stir welding (FSW), has shown great promise as a method for welding traditionally difficult to weld materials such as aluminum alloys. This relatively new technology has more recently been applied to higher melting temperature alloys such as steels, nickel-based and titanium alloys. Friction stir processing (FSP) is a method of changing the properties of a metal through intense, localized plastic deformation. FSW is the precursor of the FSP technique. When ideally implemented, this process mixes the material without changing the phase and creates a microstructure with fine, equiaxed grains. This homogeneous grain structure, separated by high-angle boundaries, allows some alloys to take on superplastic properties. In this study, FSW is used as a substitutive welding process between FMS tube and ODS parts. The dimension of tube is 7.0 OD, 0.5 T. During the FSW, dynamic-recrystallized grains are developed; the uniform oxides dispersion is preserved in the metal matrix. The microstructure and microtexture of the material near the stir zone is found to be influenced by the rotational behavior of the tool. The additive effect from FSP on sample surface is considered. Since the mechanical alloying (MA) and FSP commonly apply extreme shear deformation on materials, the dispersion of oxide particle in ODS steels is very active during both processes. Friction stir welding appears to be a very promising technique for the welding of FMS and ODS steels in the form of sheet and tube. FSW could successfully produce defect-free welds on FMS tubes and ODS ring assembly. FSW produces a fine grain structure consisting of ferrite and martensite, and the oxide

  16. Friction Stir Processing of ODS and FM Steels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Suk Hoon; Chun, Young Bum; Noh, Sang Hoon; Jang, Jin Sung; Kim, Tae Kyu

    2013-01-01

    In ODS steels, it is well known that uniform nano-oxide dispersoids act as pinning points to obstruct dislocation and grain boundary motion, however, those advantages will be disappeared while the material is subjected to the high temperature of conventional fusion welding. Rotary friction welding, also referred to as friction stir welding (FSW), has shown great promise as a method for welding traditionally difficult to weld materials such as aluminum alloys. This relatively new technology has more recently been applied to higher melting temperature alloys such as steels, nickel-based and titanium alloys. Friction stir processing (FSP) is a method of changing the properties of a metal through intense, localized plastic deformation. FSW is the precursor of the FSP technique. When ideally implemented, this process mixes the material without changing the phase and creates a microstructure with fine, equiaxed grains. This homogeneous grain structure, separated by high-angle boundaries, allows some alloys to take on superplastic properties. In this study, FSW is used as a substitutive welding process between FMS tube and ODS parts. The dimension of tube is 7.0 OD, 0.5 T. During the FSW, dynamic-recrystallized grains are developed; the uniform oxides dispersion is preserved in the metal matrix. The microstructure and microtexture of the material near the stir zone is found to be influenced by the rotational behavior of the tool. The additive effect from FSP on sample surface is considered. Since the mechanical alloying (MA) and FSP commonly apply extreme shear deformation on materials, the dispersion of oxide particle in ODS steels is very active during both processes. Friction stir welding appears to be a very promising technique for the welding of FMS and ODS steels in the form of sheet and tube. FSW could successfully produce defect-free welds on FMS tubes and ODS ring assembly. FSW produces a fine grain structure consisting of ferrite and martensite, and the oxide

  17. Estimating population cause-specific mortality fractions from in-hospital mortality: validation of a new method.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher J L Murray

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Cause-of-death data for many developing countries are not available. Information on deaths in hospital by cause is available in many low- and middle-income countries but is not a representative sample of deaths in the population. We propose a method to estimate population cause-specific mortality fractions (CSMFs using data already collected in many middle-income and some low-income developing nations, yet rarely used: in-hospital death records.For a given cause of death, a community's hospital deaths are equal to total community deaths multiplied by the proportion of deaths occurring in hospital. If we can estimate the proportion dying in hospital, we can estimate the proportion dying in the population using deaths in hospital. We propose to estimate the proportion of deaths for an age, sex, and cause group that die in hospital from the subset of the population where vital registration systems function or from another population. We evaluated our method using nearly complete vital registration (VR data from Mexico 1998-2005, which records whether a death occurred in a hospital. In this validation test, we used 45 disease categories. We validated our method in two ways: nationally and between communities. First, we investigated how the method's accuracy changes as we decrease the amount of Mexican VR used to estimate the proportion of each age, sex, and cause group dying in hospital. Decreasing VR data used for this first step from 100% to 9% produces only a 12% maximum relative error between estimated and true CSMFs. Even if Mexico collected full VR information only in its capital city with 9% of its population, our estimation method would produce an average relative error in CSMFs across the 45 causes of just over 10%. Second, we used VR data for the capital zone (Distrito Federal and Estado de Mexico and estimated CSMFs for the three lowest-development states. Our estimation method gave an average relative error of 20%, 23%, and 31% for

  18. Estimating Finite Rate of Population Increase for Sharks Based on Vital Parameters.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kwang-Ming Liu

    Full Text Available The vital parameter data for 62 stocks, covering 38 species, collected from the literature, including parameters of age, growth, and reproduction, were log-transformed and analyzed using multivariate analyses. Three groups were identified and empirical equations were developed for each to describe the relationships between the predicted finite rates of population increase (λ' and the vital parameters, maximum age (Tmax, age at maturity (Tm, annual fecundity (f/Rc, size at birth (Lb, size at maturity (Lm, and asymptotic length (L∞. Group (1 included species with slow growth rates (0.034 yr(-1 < k < 0.103 yr(-1 and extended longevity (26 yr < Tmax < 81 yr, e.g., shortfin mako Isurus oxyrinchus, dusky shark Carcharhinus obscurus, etc.; Group (2 included species with fast growth rates (0.103 yr(-1 < k < 0.358 yr(-1 and short longevity (9 yr < Tmax < 26 yr, e.g., starspotted smoothhound Mustelus manazo, gray smoothhound M. californicus, etc.; Group (3 included late maturing species (Lm/L∞ ≧ 0.75 with moderate longevity (Tmax < 29 yr, e.g., pelagic thresher Alopias pelagicus, sevengill shark Notorynchus cepedianus. The empirical equation for all data pooled was also developed. The λ' values estimated by these empirical equations showed good agreement with those calculated using conventional demographic analysis. The predictability was further validated by an independent data set of three species. The empirical equations developed in this study not only reduce the uncertainties in estimation but also account for the difference in life history among groups. This method therefore provides an efficient and effective approach to the implementation of precautionary shark management measures.

  19. Estimated percentage of typhoid fever in adult pakistani population (TAP) study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mehboob, F.; Arshad, A.; Firdous, S.; Ahmed, S.; Rehma, S.

    2013-01-01

    Typhoid fever is a serious infection with high morbidity and mortality in untreated cases. It is one of the very common infections in developing countries due to various factors involving hygiene and sanitation. Objective: To determine the estimated percentage of typhoid fever in Pakistani population and to find the commonly prescribed antibiotics for the disease. Material and Methods: This cross sectional study was conducted on 1036 patients, selected from forty five general practitioner clinics, between June to October 2010. Patients of > 18 years of age with > 3 days history of fever (> 100 degree F) and high index of suspicion for typhoid fever were tested for typhoid fever using Typhidot kits and positive cases were recruited for monitoring response to treatment. The febrile patients with clear cut history of urinary or respiratory infect-ion, hypovolemic shock or hepatobiliary disease were excluded and not tested by typhidot kit. The antibiotics prescribed to study population by various general practitioners were noted. Data was analysed on SPSS. Results were expressed in percentages and proportions. Results: Total 1036 patients were recruited. Typhoidot test was negative in 63.9% and positive in 36.1% patients with highest percentages of positive cases in Karachi, Rawalpindi and Hyderabad. The maximum number of cases were reported in summer season especially from June to August. Most of the patients were between ages of 19 - 39 years. The commonest anti-biotics prescribed were Ofloxacin, Ciprofloxacin and Levofloxacin. Conclusion: Typhoid fever is very common infection in Pakistan caused by Salmonella typhi which is transmitted among humans through faecooral route. Disease can be controlled not only by antibiotics like fluoroquinolones but by patient education, improvement in hygiene and sanitation, safe supply of clean drinking water and prophylactic vaccination as well. However, timely diagnosis and appropriate management with proper antibiotics is the key

  20. Estimated percentage of typhoid fever in adult pakistani population (TAP) study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mehboob, F.; Arshad, A.; Firdous, S.; Ahmed, S.; Rehma, S. [Mayo Hospital, Lahore (Pakistan). Dept. of Medicine

    2013-01-15

    Typhoid fever is a serious infection with high morbidity and mortality in untreated cases. It is one of the very common infections in developing countries due to various factors involving hygiene and sanitation. Objective: To determine the estimated percentage of typhoid fever in Pakistani population and to find the commonly prescribed antibiotics for the disease. Material and Methods: This cross sectional study was conducted on 1036 patients, selected from forty five general practitioner clinics, between June to October 2010. Patients of > 18 years of age with > 3 days history of fever (> 100 degree F) and high index of suspicion for typhoid fever were tested for typhoid fever using Typhidot kits and positive cases were recruited for monitoring response to treatment. The febrile patients with clear cut history of urinary or respiratory infect-ion, hypovolemic shock or hepatobiliary disease were excluded and not tested by typhidot kit. The antibiotics prescribed to study population by various general practitioners were noted. Data was analysed on SPSS. Results were expressed in percentages and proportions. Results: Total 1036 patients were recruited. Typhoidot test was negative in 63.9% and positive in 36.1% patients with highest percentages of positive cases in Karachi, Rawalpindi and Hyderabad. The maximum number of cases were reported in summer season especially from June to August. Most of the patients were between ages of 19 - 39 years. The commonest anti-biotics prescribed were Ofloxacin, Ciprofloxacin and Levofloxacin. Conclusion: Typhoid fever is very common infection in Pakistan caused by Salmonella typhi which is transmitted among humans through faecooral route. Disease can be controlled not only by antibiotics like fluoroquinolones but by patient education, improvement in hygiene and sanitation, safe supply of clean drinking water and prophylactic vaccination as well. However, timely diagnosis and appropriate management with proper antibiotics is the key

  1. Age estimation using development of third molars in South Indian population: A radiological study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Priyadharshini, K Indra; Idiculla, Jose Joy; Sivapathasundaram, B; Mohanbabu, V; Augustine, Dominic; Patil, Shankargouda

    2015-05-01

    To assess the estimation of chronological age based on the stages of third molar development following the eight stages (A-H) method of Demirjian et al. in Chennai population of South India. A sample consisting of 848 individuals (471 males and 377 females) aged between 14 and 30 years was randomly selected for the clinical evaluation and 323 orthopantomograms with clinically missing third molars were taken for radiological evaluation using Demirjian's method from a Chennai population of known chronological age and sex. Statistical analysis was performed using Pearson's Chi-square test and mean values were compared between the study groups using t-test or analysis of variance (ANOVA) followed by Tukey's highly significant difference (HSD). In the present study, P age of having clinically completely erupted maxillary third molars was 22.41 years in male subjects and 23.81 years in female subjects and that of mandibular third molars was 21.49 years in male subjects and 23.34 years in female subjects. Mandibular third molars were clinically missing more often in females than in males. Eruption of mandibular third molars was generally ahead of the emergence of maxillary third molars into the oral cavity. Third molar development between male and female subjects showed statistically significant differences at calcification stage F and stage G in maxillary third molars and stage F in mandibular third molars (P third molar eruption reached Demirjian's formation stages earlier in males than in females. It is suggested that in future studies, to increase the accuracy of age determination, indications of sexual maturity and ossification should also be evaluated in addition to third molar mineralization.

  2. Hydrogen Transport and Trapping in ODS-EUROFER

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Esteban, G.A.; Pena, A.; Legarda, F.; Lindau, R.

    2006-01-01

    Oxide Dispersion Strengthened (ODS) EUROFER is a candidate structural material to be used in the design of several blanket options [R. Lindau et al. Fusion Eng. Des. 75 - 79 (2005) 989]. This type of material allows higher temperature performance (650 o C) than standard RAFM steels and shows improved mechanical properties like superior tensile and creep properties in comparison to the base material EUROFER [R. Lindau, A. Moeslang, M. Schirra, P. Schlossmacher, M. Klimenkov, J. Nucl. Mater. 307-311 (2002) 769]. Together with mechanical and activation properties, the characterization of hydrogen isotope transport properties in any fusion technology material is compulsory because they affect important issues of the blanket concept using a specific collection of materials, such as the fuel economy, plasma stability and the radiological security of the fusion reactor. The hydrogen interaction properties of permeability, diffusivity and Sieverts' constant in ODS-EUROFER are experimentally evaluated by using the gas evolution permeation technique. The results are analysed together with the properties of the base material in order to study the influence of the particular microstructure of ODS in the hydrogen transport. Higher permeability of hydrogen in ODS-EUROFER has been obtained in comparison to the base material EUROFER. The effect of trapping showing a high time lag for non steady-state permeation has been noticed in the low temperature range. The trapping phenomena is identified to be the cause of such effect and the presence of nanoparticles of Yttria the reason for the source of additional trapping sites. The concluding remark is a decrease in the diffusivity and an increase in the solubility of hydrogen in the material at low temperature. All the hydrogen transport parameters obtained for ODS-EUROFER are compared to the properties of base material and available data corresponding to other RAFM steels of the same kind. (author)

  3. Population estimates and monitoring guidelines for endangered Laysan Teal, Anas Laysanensis, at Midway Atoll: Pilot study results 2008-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, Michelle H.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Laniawe, Leona

    2011-01-01

    Accurate estimates of population size are often crucial to determining status and planning recovery of endangered species. The ability to detect trends in survival and population size over time enables conservation managers to make effective decisions for species and refuge management. During 2004–2007, the translocated population of endangered Laysan Teal (Anas laysanensis; also Laysan Duck) was fitted with radio transmitters providing known (―gold standard‖) measures of survival and reproduction. However, as the population grew, statistically rigorous monitoring protocols were needed that were less labor intensive than radio telemetry. A population die-off and alarmingly high number of carcasses (181) were recorded during a botulism epizootic in August–October 2008, which further reinforced the need for effective monitoring protocols since this endangered species is vulnerable to catastrophic population declines. In fall 2008, we initiated a pilot study using standardized surveys with uniquely marked birds to monitor abundance and estimate the population growth rate of the reintroduced Laysan Teal. Since few birds carried marks (leg bands) after the 2008 botulism die-off (only about 15% of the population), and standardized surveys were not yet implemented, the magnitude of the die-off on the population size was unknown.

  4. Precision of Nest Method in Estimating Orangutan Population and Determination of Important Ecological Factors for Management of Conservation Forest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanto Santosa

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Orangutan as an umbrella species is closely interlinked with sustainable forest management meaning that the protection of this species has implications on the protection of other species and maintain ecosystem stability.  The total natural habitat required to support orangutan’s population could only be determined by the appropriate population size. It is associated with the carrying capacity to accommodate or fulfill the habitat requirements of a wildlife population. Selection and delineation of core and wilderness zones as habitat preference should be based on the results of preference test shown by the spatial distribution of orangutan population. Value of the coefficient  of  variation (CV was used to observe the precision of the population estimation and to identify important ecological factors in selection of nesting trees.  The study resulted in varied CV spatial values for various habitat types: 22.60%,  11.20%, and 13.30% for heath, lowland dipterocarp, and peat swamp forest, respectively. In the other side, CV temporal values for various habitat types were 5.35%, 22.60%, and 17.60% for heath, lowland dipterocarp, and peat swamp forest, respectively. This indicated that the population density in each type of forest ecosystems had a variation based on location and did not varied according to time of survey.  The use of  nest survey technique showed good reliable results in estimating orangutan population density.  Efforts to improve the precision of estimation can be done by formulating r value as the harmonic average of nest production rates and t as the average of nest decay time per nest category. Selection of habitat preference and nest trees were influenced by food availability thus should form important consideration in conducting nest survey to avoid bias in estimating orangutan populations.Keywords: conservation forest management, nest survey, orangutan, population size, ecological factors

  5. Estimating abundance of an open population with an N-mixture model using auxiliary data on animal movements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ketz, Alison C; Johnson, Therese L; Monello, Ryan J; Mack, John A; George, Janet L; Kraft, Benjamin R; Wild, Margaret A; Hooten, Mevin B; Hobbs, N Thompson

    2018-04-01

    Accurate assessment of abundance forms a central challenge in population ecology and wildlife management. Many statistical techniques have been developed to estimate population sizes because populations change over time and space and to correct for the bias resulting from animals that are present in a study area but not observed. The mobility of individuals makes it difficult to design sampling procedures that account for movement into and out of areas with fixed jurisdictional boundaries. Aerial surveys are the gold standard used to obtain data of large mobile species in geographic regions with harsh terrain, but these surveys can be prohibitively expensive and dangerous. Estimating abundance with ground-based census methods have practical advantages, but it can be difficult to simultaneously account for temporary emigration and observer error to avoid biased results. Contemporary research in population ecology increasingly relies on telemetry observations of the states and locations of individuals to gain insight on vital rates, animal movements, and population abundance. Analytical models that use observations of movements to improve estimates of abundance have not been developed. Here we build upon existing multi-state mark-recapture methods using a hierarchical N-mixture model with multiple sources of data, including telemetry data on locations of individuals, to improve estimates of population sizes. We used a state-space approach to model animal movements to approximate the number of marked animals present within the study area at any observation period, thereby accounting for a frequently changing number of marked individuals. We illustrate the approach using data on a population of elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni) in Northern Colorado, USA. We demonstrate substantial improvement compared to existing abundance estimation methods and corroborate our results from the ground based surveys with estimates from aerial surveys during the same seasons. We develop a

  6. Semivariogram models for estimating fig fly population density throughout the year

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauricio Paulo Batistella Pasini

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this work was to select semivariogram models to estimate the population density of fig fly (Zaprionus indianus; Diptera: Drosophilidae throughout the year, using ordinary kriging. Nineteen monitoring sites were demarcated in an area of 8,200 m2, cropped with six fruit tree species: persimmon, citrus, fig, guava, apple, and peach. During a 24 month period, 106 weekly evaluations were done in these sites. The average number of adult fig flies captured weekly per trap, during each month, was subjected to the circular, spherical, pentaspherical, exponential, Gaussian, rational quadratic, hole effect, K-Bessel, J-Bessel, and stable semivariogram models, using ordinary kriging interpolation. The models with the best fit were selected by cross-validation. Each data set (months has a particular spatial dependence structure, which makes it necessary to define specific models of semivariograms in order to enhance the adjustment to the experimental semivariogram. Therefore, it was not possible to determine a standard semivariogram model; instead, six theoretical models were selected: circular, Gaussian, hole effect, K-Bessel, J-Bessel, and stable.

  7. Farm Population Estimates for 1977. Rural Development Research Report No. 4.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banks, Vera J.

    The U.S. farm population continued its long-term downward trend during 1977, indicating that the population growth characteristic of nonmetropolitan counties since 1970 has not extended to population living on farms. In the 12-month period centered on April 1977, the farm population was 7,806,000, or 450,000 fewer farm residents (5.4%) than in…

  8. 75 FR 9232 - Office of Dietary Supplements (ODS) 2010-2014 Strategic Plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-01

    ... completed a strategic planning process resulting in the development of the ODS Strategic Plan for 2010-2014, entitled Strengthening Knowledge and Understanding of Dietary Supplements. The strategic plan is available... Supplements (ODS) 2010-2014 Strategic Plan ACTION: Notice of availability of the ODS Strategic Plan for 2010...

  9. 46 CFR 280.3 - Standards governing award of an ODS agreement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 8 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Standards governing award of an ODS agreement. 280.3 Section 280.3 Shipping MARITIME ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION REGULATIONS AFFECTING... LINER OPERATORS § 280.3 Standards governing award of an ODS agreement. No ODS agreement, including any...

  10. An epidemiological modelling study to estimate the composition of HIV-positive populations including migrants from endemic settings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nakagawa, F; Delpech, V; Albert, J

    2017-01-01

    were undiagnosed respectively. CONCLUSION: We have shown a working example to characterize the HIV population in a European context which incorporates migrants from countries with generalized epidemics. Despite all aspects of HIV care being free and widely available to anyone in need in the UK......OBJECTIVE: Migrants account for a significant number of people living with HIV in Europe, and it is important to fully consider this population in national estimates. Using a novel approach with the UK as an example, we present key public health measures of the HIV epidemic, taking into account...... of these people, 24 600 (15 000-36 200) were estimated to be undiagnosed; this number has remained stable over the last decade. An estimated 32% of the total undiagnosed population had CD4 cell count less than 350 cells/μl in 2013. Twenty-five and 23% of black African men and women heterosexuals living with HIV...

  11. Estimating Population Parameters using the Structured Serial Coalescent with Bayesian MCMC Inference when some Demes are Hidden

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Allen Rodrigo

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Using the structured serial coalescent with Bayesian MCMC and serial samples, we estimate population size when some demes are not sampled or are hidden, ie ghost demes. It is found that even with the presence of a ghost deme, accurate inference was possible if the parameters are estimated with the true model. However with an incorrect model, estimates were biased and can be positively misleading. We extend these results to the case where there are sequences from the ghost at the last time sample. This case can arise in HIV patients, when some tissue samples and viral sequences only become available after death. When some sequences from the ghost deme are available at the last sampling time, estimation bias is reduced and accurate estimation of parameters associated with the ghost deme is possible despite sampling bias. Migration rates for this case are also shown to be good estimates when migration values are low.

  12. Study design and the estimation of the size of key populations at risk of HIV: lessons from Viet Nam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safarnejad, Ali; Groot, Wim; Pavlova, Milena

    2018-01-30

    Estimation of the size of populations at risk of HIV is a key activity in the surveillance of the HIV epidemic. The existing framework for considering future research needs may provide decision-makers with a basis for a fair process of deciding on the methods of the estimation of the size of key populations at risk of HIV. This study explores the extent to which stakeholders involved with population size estimation agree with this framework, and thus, the study updates the framework. We conducted 16 in-depth interviews with key informants from city and provincial governments, NGOs, research institutes, and the community of people at risk of HIV. Transcripts were analyzed and reviewed for significant statements pertaining to criteria. Variations and agreement around criteria were analyzed, and emerging criteria were validated against the existing framework. Eleven themes emerged which are relevant to the estimation of the size of populations at risk of HIV in Viet Nam. Findings on missing criteria, inclusive participation, community perspectives and conflicting weight and direction of criteria provide insights for an improved framework for the prioritization of population size estimation methods. The findings suggest that the exclusion of community members from decision-making on population size estimation methods in Viet Nam may affect the validity, use, and efficiency of the evidence generated. However, a wider group of decision-makers, including community members among others, may introduce diverse definitions, weight and direction of criteria. Although findings here may not apply to every country with a transitioning economy or to every emerging epidemic, the principles of fair decision-making, value of community participation in decision-making and the expected challenges faced, merit consideration in every situation.

  13. Estimating grizzly and black bear population abundance and trend in Banff National Park using noninvasive genetic sampling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael A Sawaya

    Full Text Available We evaluated the potential of two noninvasive genetic sampling methods, hair traps and bear rub surveys, to estimate population abundance and trend of grizzly (Ursus arctos and black bear (U. americanus populations in Banff National Park, Alberta, Canada. Using Huggins closed population mark-recapture models, we obtained the first precise abundance estimates for grizzly bears (N= 73.5, 95% CI = 64-94 in 2006; N= 50.4, 95% CI = 49-59 in 2008 and black bears (N= 62.6, 95% CI = 51-89 in 2006; N= 81.8, 95% CI = 72-102 in 2008 in the Bow Valley. Hair traps had high detection rates for female grizzlies, and male and female black bears, but extremely low detection rates for male grizzlies. Conversely, bear rubs had high detection rates for male and female grizzlies, but low rates for black bears. We estimated realized population growth rates, lambda, for grizzly bear males (λ= 0.93, 95% CI = 0.74-1.17 and females (λ= 0.90, 95% CI = 0.67-1.20 using Pradel open population models with three years of bear rub data. Lambda estimates are supported by abundance estimates from combined hair trap/bear rub closed population models and are consistent with a system that is likely driven by high levels of human-caused mortality. Our results suggest that bear rub surveys would provide an efficient and powerful means to inventory and monitor grizzly bear populations in the Central Canadian Rocky Mountains.

  14. Estimating grizzly and black bear population abundance and trend in Banff National Park using noninvasive genetic sampling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sawaya, Michael A; Stetz, Jeffrey B; Clevenger, Anthony P; Gibeau, Michael L; Kalinowski, Steven T

    2012-01-01

    We evaluated the potential of two noninvasive genetic sampling methods, hair traps and bear rub surveys, to estimate population abundance and trend of grizzly (Ursus arctos) and black bear (U. americanus) populations in Banff National Park, Alberta, Canada. Using Huggins closed population mark-recapture models, we obtained the first precise abundance estimates for grizzly bears (N= 73.5, 95% CI = 64-94 in 2006; N= 50.4, 95% CI = 49-59 in 2008) and black bears (N= 62.6, 95% CI = 51-89 in 2006; N= 81.8, 95% CI = 72-102 in 2008) in the Bow Valley. Hair traps had high detection rates for female grizzlies, and male and female black bears, but extremely low detection rates for male grizzlies. Conversely, bear rubs had high detection rates for male and female grizzlies, but low rates for black bears. We estimated realized population growth rates, lambda, for grizzly bear males (λ= 0.93, 95% CI = 0.74-1.17) and females (λ= 0.90, 95% CI = 0.67-1.20) using Pradel open population models with three years of bear rub data. Lambda estimates are supported by abundance estimates from combined hair trap/bear rub closed population models and are consistent with a system that is likely driven by high levels of human-caused mortality. Our results suggest that bear rub surveys would provide an efficient and powerful means to inventory and monitor grizzly bear populations in the Central Canadian Rocky Mountains.

  15. Multiple estimates of effective population size for monitoring a long-lived vertebrate: an application to Yellowstone grizzly bears.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamath, Pauline L; Haroldson, Mark A; Luikart, Gordon; Paetkau, David; Whitman, Craig; van Manen, Frank T

    2015-11-01

    Effective population size (N(e)) is a key parameter for monitoring the genetic health of threatened populations because it reflects a population's evolutionary potential and risk of extinction due to genetic stochasticity. However, its application to wildlife monitoring has been limited because it is difficult to measure in natural populations. The isolated and well-studied population of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem provides a rare opportunity to examine the usefulness of different N(e) estimators for monitoring. We genotyped 729 Yellowstone grizzly bears using 20 microsatellites and applied three single-sample estimators to examine contemporary trends in generation interval (GI), effective number of breeders (N(b)) and N(e) during 1982-2007. We also used multisample methods to estimate variance (N(eV)) and inbreeding N(e) (N(eI)). Single-sample estimates revealed positive trajectories, with over a fourfold increase in N(e) (≈100 to 450) and near doubling of the GI (≈8 to 14) from the 1980s to 2000s. N(eV) (240-319) and N(eI) (256) were comparable with the harmonic mean single-sample N(e) (213) over the time period. Reanalysing historical data, we found N(eV) increased from ≈80 in the 1910s-1960s to ≈280 in the contemporary population. The estimated ratio of effective to total census size (N(e) /N(c)) was stable and high (0.42-0.66) compared to previous brown bear studies. These results support independent demographic evidence for Yellowstone grizzly bear population growth since the 1980s. They further demonstrate how genetic monitoring of N(e) can complement demographic-based monitoring of N(c) and vital rates, providing a valuable tool for wildlife managers. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Multiple estimates of effective population size for monitoring a long-lived vertebrate: An application to Yellowstone grizzly bears

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamath, Pauline L.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Luikart, Gordon; Paetkau, David; Whitman, Craig L.; van Manen, Frank T.

    2015-01-01

    Effective population size (Ne) is a key parameter for monitoring the genetic health of threatened populations because it reflects a population's evolutionary potential and risk of extinction due to genetic stochasticity. However, its application to wildlife monitoring has been limited because it is difficult to measure in natural populations. The isolated and well-studied population of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem provides a rare opportunity to examine the usefulness of different Ne estimators for monitoring. We genotyped 729 Yellowstone grizzly bears using 20 microsatellites and applied three single-sample estimators to examine contemporary trends in generation interval (GI), effective number of breeders (Nb) and Ne during 1982–2007. We also used multisample methods to estimate variance (NeV) and inbreeding Ne (NeI). Single-sample estimates revealed positive trajectories, with over a fourfold increase in Ne (≈100 to 450) and near doubling of the GI (≈8 to 14) from the 1980s to 2000s. NeV (240–319) and NeI (256) were comparable with the harmonic mean single-sample Ne (213) over the time period. Reanalysing historical data, we found NeV increased from ≈80 in the 1910s–1960s to ≈280 in the contemporary population. The estimated ratio of effective to total census size (Ne/Nc) was stable and high (0.42–0.66) compared to previous brown bear studies. These results support independent demographic evidence for Yellowstone grizzly bear population growth since the 1980s. They further demonstrate how genetic monitoring of Ne can complement demographic-based monitoring of Nc and vital rates, providing a valuable tool for wildlife managers.

  17. PEDIC - A COMPUTER PROGRAM TO ESTIMATE THE EFFECT OF EVACUATION ON POPULATION EXPOSURE FOLLOWING ACUTE RADIONUCLIDE RELEASES TO THE ATOMSPHERE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Strenge, D. L.; Peloquin, R. A.

    1981-01-01

    The computer program PEDIC is described for estimation of the effect of evacuation on population exposure. The program uses joint frequency, annual average meteorological data and a simple population evacuation model to estimate exposure reduction due to movement of people away from radioactive plumes following an acute release of activity. Atmospheric dispersion is based on a sector averaged Gaussian model with consideration of plume rise and building wake effects. Appendices to the report provide details of the computer program design, a program listing, input card preparation instructions and sample problems.

  18. Estimates of Total Dietary Folic Acid Intake in the Australian Population Following Mandatory Folic Acid Fortification of Bread

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacinta Dugbaza

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Mandatory folic acid fortification of wheat flour for making bread was implemented in Australia in September 2009, to improve the dietary folate status of women of child-bearing age, and help reduce the incidence of neural tube defects in the population. This paper presents estimates of folic acid intake in the target population and other subgroups of the Australian population following implementation of the mandatory folic acid fortification standard. In June/July 2010 one hundred samples from seven bread categories were purchased from around the country and individually analysed for the amount of folic acid they contained. A modification to the triple enzyme microbiological method was used to measure folic acid in the individual bread samples. The folic acid analytical values together with national food consumption data were used to generate estimates of the population’s folic acid intake from fortified foods. Food Standards Australia New Zealand’s (FSANZ custom-built dietary modelling program (DIAMOND was used for the estimates. The mean amount of folic acid found in white bread was 200 μg/100 g which demonstrated that folic-acid-fortified wheat flour was used to bake the bread. The intake estimates indicated an increase in mean folic acid intake of 159 μg per day for the target group. Other sub-groups of the population also showed increases in estimated mean daily intake of folic acid.

  19. The estimation of the dose from cosmic radiation received by the population living at mainland areas of China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jin Hua; Yue Qingyu

    1989-01-01

    According to the distribution of cosmic ray ionization with altitude and latitude as well as the census information in all of our country (the end of the year 1986), the population-weighted mean annual effective dose equivalent received by the population living at mainland areas of China is estimated to be about 278 μSv, in which the ionizing component and the neutron component are 252 μSv and 26 μSv, respectively

  20. Development of ODS-Fe{sub 3}Al alloys

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wright, I.G.; Pint, B.A.; Tortorelli, P.F.; McKamey, C.G. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)

    1997-12-01

    The overall goal of this program is to develop an oxide dispersion-strengthened (ODS) version of Fe{sub 3}Al that has sufficient creep strength and resistance to oxidation at temperatures in the range 1000 to 1200 C to be suitable for application as heat exchanger tubing in advanced power generation cycles. The main areas being addressed are: (a) alloy processing to achieve the desired alloy grain size and shape, and (b) optimization of the oxidation behavior to provide increased service life compared to semi-commercial ODS-FeCrAl alloys intended for the same applications. The recent studies have focused on mechanically-alloyed powder from a commercial alloy vendor. These starting alloy powders were very clean in terms of oxygen content compared to ORNL-produced powders, but contained similar levels of carbon picked up during the milling process. The specific environment used in milling the powder appears to exert a considerable influence on the post-consolidation recrystallization behavior of the alloy. A milling environment which produced powder particles having a high surface carbon content resulted in a consolidated alloy which readily recrystallized, whereas powder with a low surface carbon level after milling resulted in no recrystallization even at 1380 C. A feature of these alloys was the appearance of voids or porosity after the recrystallization anneal, as had been found with ORNL-produced alloys. Adjustment of the recrystallization parameters did not reveal any range of conditions where recrystallization could be accomplished without the formation of voids. Initial creep tests of specimens of the recrystallized alloys indicated a significant increase in creep strength compared to cast or wrought Fe{sub 3}Al, but the specimens failed prematurely by a mechanism that involved brittle fracture of one of the two grains in the test cross section, followed by ductile fracture of the remaining grain. The reasons for this behavior are not yet understood. The

  1. Population estimates of Dendrobates tinctorius (Anura: Dendrobatidae at three sites in French Guiana and first record of chytrid infection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elodie A. Courtois

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The Neotropics shelter the highest number of frog species on Earth and is also one of the regions where anurans are most threatened. Nonetheless, few data are available to assess the population status of Neotropical anurans. We studied three populations (Tresor, Favard, and Nouragues of the poison frog, Dendrobates tinctorius, in French Guiana and used Capture-Mark-Recapture (CMR to make robust estimations of the species’ density at these three sites. In addition, we assessed the prevalence of the pathogen fungal Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd in two populations (Favard and Nouragues. Based on the CMR protocol, the densities of frogs was 8.43 individuals/100 m² at Favard, 4.28 individuals/100 m² at Nouragues and from 2.30 to 4.67 individuals/100 m² at Tresor (depending on the CMR model used; these data provide a baseline for population densities of D. tinctorius in French Guiana, against which future population estimates can be compared. We found that 25 encounter events may be sufficient for stable population estimates, if the captures are concentrated in time. Bd was detected at both sites (Favard 7/152; Nouragues 3/18.

  2. [Overweight and obesity prevalence estimates in a population from Zaragoza by using different growth references].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lasarte-Velillas, J J; Hernández-Aguilar, M T; Martínez-Boyero, T; Soria-Cabeza, G; Soria-Ruiz, D; Bastarós-García, J C; Gil-Hernández, I; Pastor-Arilla, C; Lasarte-Sanz, I

    2015-03-01

    To investigate the prevalence of overweight and obesity among our pediatric population and observe whether the use of different growth references for classification produce significant differences. A total of 35824 boys and girls aged between 2 and 14 years were included. Body mass index (BMI) was used to calculate the prevalence of overweight-obesity by age and sex. Prevalence was obtained by using a set of national references (Hernández's standards) and the references of World Health Organization (WHO standards). Prevalences were compared for each age and sex subset, as well as with the percentage of patients who had an overweight-obesity diagnosis in the clinical record. The overall prevalence of overweight-obesity among children aged 2 to 14 years was 17.0% (95% CI; 16.1%-18.0%) according to the Hernández standards vs 30.8% (95% CI; 29.9%-31.7%) according to WHO standards (10.1% vs 12.2% obese, and 6.9% vs 18.6% overweight). It was significantly higher in boys, by both standards, due to the higher prevalence of obesity. By using the Hernández standards the prevalence was significantly lower than by using WHO standards for all ages and for both sexes. A low percentage of patients were found to have an obesity-overweight diagnosis in the clinical record (from 3% to 22% at the ages of 2 and 14 years, respectively). The prevalence of overweight-obesity in our population is high, especially among boys. Using Hernández standards leads to an under-estimation of the problem, especially because it detects less overweight patients, thus we recommend using the WHO standards in our daily practice. The low number of overweight-obesity diagnoses in the clinical records might reflect that there is little awareness of the problem by the professionals. Copyright © 2013 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  3. Genetic potential and heritability estimates of yield traits in F3 segregating populations of bread wheat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soshma Jan

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available An experiment comprising of 24 wheat genotypes was undertaken during 2011-12, at New Developmental Research Farm, The University of Agriculture Peshawar, to elucidate information on the nature and magnitude of genetic variability, index of transmissibility and assessing the level of genetic improvement of the quantitative characters. The experimental material comprising 19 F3 populations along with their 5 parents of bread wheat were evaluated in randomized complete block design (RCBD with three replications. Analysis of variance exhibited highly significant (P ≤ 0.01 differences among genotypes for all the traits studied. F3 population Ghaznavi-98 x Pirsabak-05 showed maximum mean value for 1000-grain weight (47.3 g and biological yield (11474.9 kg ha-1, whereas, maximum values for grain yield (4027.3 kg ha-1, and harvest index (48.1% were observed for Pirsabak-05 x AUP-4006. Moreover, maximum spike length (11 cm was recorded for cross combination Pirsabak-05 x Pirsabak-04 and Janbaz x Pirsabak-05, respectively. In addition, Pirsabak-04 showed maximum value for number of grains spike-1 (55.0. Genetic variances were of greater magnitude than environmental variances for all the traits except for spike length and 1000-grain weight. Heritability estimates were of higher magnitude ranged from 0.64 to 0.92 for harvest index, biological yield, grain yield, and grains spike-1. Moderate to low heritability (0.40-0.46 was observed for 1000-grain weight, and spike length, respectively. Genetic gain was for spike length (0.48 cm, grains spike-1 (8.57, 1000-grain weight (2.93 g, grain yield (639.87 kg ha-1, biological yield (1790.03 kg ha-1, and harvest index (5.32 %. From high values of heritability and genetic advance, it could be concluded that selection for traits like grains spike-1 suggested good selection criteria and could be effective for future breeding programs. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/ije.v4i2.12630 International Journal of Environment

  4. Comparison of Drive Counts and Mark-Resight As Methods of Population Size Estimation of Highly Dense Sika Deer (Cervus nippon Populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kazutaka Takeshita

    Full Text Available Assessing temporal changes in abundance indices is an important issue in the management of large herbivore populations. The drive counts method has been frequently used as a deer abundance index in mountainous regions. However, despite an inherent risk for observation errors in drive counts, which increase with deer density, evaluations of the utility of drive counts at a high deer density remain scarce. We compared the drive counts and mark-resight (MR methods in the evaluation of a highly dense sika deer population (MR estimates ranged between 11 and 53 individuals/km2 on Nakanoshima Island, Hokkaido, Japan, between 1999 and 2006. This deer population experienced two large reductions in density; approximately 200 animals in total were taken from the population through a large-scale population removal and a separate winter mass mortality event. Although the drive counts tracked temporal changes in deer abundance on the island, they overestimated the counts for all years in comparison to the MR method. Increased overestimation in drive count estimates after the winter mass mortality event may be due to a double count derived from increased deer movement and recovery of body condition secondary to the mitigation of density-dependent food limitations. Drive counts are unreliable because they are affected by unfavorable factors such as bad weather, and they are cost-prohibitive to repeat, which precludes the calculation of confidence intervals. Therefore, the use of drive counts to infer the deer abundance needs to be reconsidered.

  5. A population-based estimate of the economic burden of influenza in Peru, 2009-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinoco, Yeny O; Azziz-Baumgartner, Eduardo; Rázuri, Hugo; Kasper, Matthew R; Romero, Candice; Ortiz, Ernesto; Gomez, Jorge; Widdowson, Marc-Alain; Uyeki, Timothy M; Gilman, Robert H; Bausch, Daniel G; Montgomery, Joel M

    2016-07-01

    Influenza disease burden and economic impact data are needed to assess the potential value of interventions. Such information is limited from resource-limited settings. We therefore studied the cost of influenza in Peru. We used data collected during June 2009-December 2010 from laboratory-confirmed influenza cases identified through a household cohort in Peru. We determined the self-reported direct and indirect costs of self-treatment, outpatient care, emergency ward care, and hospitalizations through standardized questionnaires. We recorded costs accrued 15-day from illness onset. Direct costs represented medication, consultation, diagnostic fees, and health-related expenses such as transportation and phone calls. Indirect costs represented lost productivity during days of illness by both cases and caregivers. We estimated the annual economic cost and the impact of a case of influenza on a household. There were 1321 confirmed influenza cases, of which 47% sought health care. Participants with confirmed influenza illness paid a median of $13 [interquartile range (IQR) 5-26] for self-treatment, $19 (IQR 9-34) for ambulatory non-medical attended illness, $29 (IQR 14-51) for ambulatory medical attended illness, and $171 (IQR 113-258) for hospitalizations. Overall, the projected national cost of an influenza illness was $83-$85 millions. Costs per influenza illness represented 14% of the monthly household income of the lowest income quartile (compared to 3% of the highest quartile). Influenza virus infection causes an important economic burden, particularly among the poorest families and those hospitalized. Prevention strategies such as annual influenza vaccination program targeting SAGE population at risk could reduce the overall economic impact of seasonal influenza. © 2015 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Likelihood Estimation of the Systemic Poison-Induced Morbidity in an Adult North Eastern Romanian Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cătălina Lionte

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Acute exposure to a systemic poison represents an important segment of medical emergencies. We aimed to estimate the likelihood of systemic poison-induced morbidity in a population admitted in a tertiary referral center from North East Romania, based on the determinant factors. Methodology: This was a prospective observational cohort study on adult poisoned patients. Demographic, clinical and laboratory characteristics were recorded in all patients. We analyzed three groups of patients, based on the associated morbidity during hospitalization. We identified significant differences between groups and predictors with significant effects on morbidity using multiple multinomial logistic regressions. ROC analysis proved that a combination of tests could improve diagnostic accuracy of poison-related morbidity. Main findings: Of the 180 patients included, aged 44.7 ± 17.2 years, 51.1% males, 49.4% had no poison-related morbidity, 28.9% developed a mild morbidity, and 21.7% had a severe morbidity, followed by death in 16 patients (8.9%. Multiple complications and deaths were recorded in patients aged 53.4 ± 17.6 years (p .001, with a lower Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS score upon admission and a significantly higher heart rate (101 ± 32 beats/min, p .011. Routine laboratory tests were significantly higher in patients with a recorded morbidity. Multiple logistic regression analysis demonstrated that a GCS < 8, a high white blood cells count (WBC, alanine aminotransferase (ALAT, myoglobin, glycemia and brain natriuretic peptide (BNP are strongly predictive for in-hospital severe morbidity. Originality: This is the first Romanian prospective study on adult poisoned patients, which identifies the factors responsible for in-hospital morbidity using logistic regression analyses, with resulting receiver operating characteristic (ROC curves. Conclusion: In acute intoxication with systemic poisons, we identified several clinical and laboratory variables

  7. Population estimates of Australian children's exposure to food and beverage sponsorship of sports clubs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, Bridget; Bauman, Adrian E; Baur, Louise A

    2014-07-01

    Sponsorship by manufacturers of unhealthy food can undermine the health promoting goals of sport. This study aimed to describe Australian children's exposure to organised sport, and compare time spent in specific sports with patterns of sponsorship of children's sport identified in previous studies. Cross-sectional survey on children's sport participation collected by proxy report using a random-digit-dialling survey of 3416 parents. Data from the 2009/10 Australian Sports Commission's Exercise, Recreation and Sport Survey were used to calculate weekly total person-time exposure to sports for Australian children, as a product of median weekly exposure (minutes) and the number of children participating. Exposures for children in NSW were calculated based on population distribution. Based on a previous survey of sport clubs in NSW, cumulative weekly exposure to food/beverage sponsorship at sports clubs was estimated for children living in NSW. 77.3% of Australian children aged 5-14 participated in organised sport. In NSW, weekly total person-time exposure for children was highest for outdoor soccer (91,200 children×median frequency of 2 sessions per week of 1h duration=182,400h/week). Considering rates of sponsorship at different sports, children would be exposed to food/beverage sponsorship to the greatest extent for rugby league and outdoor cricket. Children's high frequency of participation in organised sport and time spent engaging in these activities highlights the potentially huge reach of food/beverage sponsorship promotions. Policy interventions to limit children's exposure to this sponsorship should target those sports that have both the highest levels of children's participation and food/beverage sponsorship arrangements. Copyright © 2013 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. A Comparison of Grizzly Bear Demographic Parameters Estimated from Non-Spatial and Spatial Open Population Capture-Recapture Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whittington, Jesse; Sawaya, Michael A

    2015-01-01

    Capture-recapture studies are frequently used to monitor the status and trends of wildlife populations. Detection histories from individual animals are used to estimate probability of detection and abundance or density. The accuracy of abundance and density estimates depends on the ability to model factors affecting detection probability. Non-spatial capture-recapture models have recently evolved into spatial capture-recapture models that directly include the effect of distances between an animal's home range centre and trap locations on detection probability. Most studies comparing non-spatial and spatial capture-recapture biases focussed on single year models and no studies have compared the accuracy of demographic parameter estimates from open population models. We applied open population non-spatial and spatial capture-recapture models to three years of grizzly bear DNA-based data from Banff National Park and simulated data sets. The two models produced similar estimates of grizzly bear apparent survival, per capita recruitment, and population growth rates but the spatial capture-recapture models had better fit. Simulations showed that spatial capture-recapture models produced more accurate parameter estimates with better credible interval coverage than non-spatial capture-recapture models. Non-spatial capture-recapture models produced negatively biased estimates of apparent survival and positively biased estimates of per capita recruitment. The spatial capture-recapture grizzly bear population growth rates and 95% highest posterior density averaged across the three years were 0.925 (0.786-1.071) for females, 0.844 (0.703-0.975) for males, and 0.882 (0.779-0.981) for females and males combined. The non-spatial capture-recapture population growth rates were 0.894 (0.758-1.024) for females, 0.825 (0.700-0.948) for males, and 0.863 (0.771-0.957) for both sexes. The combination of low densities, low reproductive rates, and predominantly negative population growth

  9. A Comparison of Grizzly Bear Demographic Parameters Estimated from Non-Spatial and Spatial Open Population Capture-Recapture Models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesse Whittington

    Full Text Available Capture-recapture studies are frequently used to monitor the status and trends of wildlife populations. Detection histories from individual animals are used to estimate probability of detection and abundance or density. The accuracy of abundance and density estimates depends on the ability to model factors affecting detection probability. Non-spatial capture-recapture models have recently evolved into spatial capture-recapture models that directly include the effect of distances between an animal's home range centre and trap locations on detection probability. Most studies comparing non-spatial and spatial capture-recapture biases focussed on single year models and no studies have compared the accuracy of demographic parameter estimates from open population models. We applied open population non-spatial and spatial capture-recapture models to three years of grizzly bear DNA-based data from Banff National Park and simulated data sets. The two models produced similar estimates of grizzly bear apparent survival, per capita recruitment, and population growth rates but the spatial capture-recapture models had better fit. Simulations showed that spatial capture-recapture models produced more accurate parameter estimates with better credible interval coverage than non-spatial capture-recapture models. Non-spatial capture-recapture models produced negatively biased estimates of apparent survival and positively biased estimates of per capita recruitment. The spatial capture-recapture grizzly bear population growth rates and 95% highest posterior density averaged across the three years were 0.925 (0.786-1.071 for females, 0.844 (0.703-0.975 for males, and 0.882 (0.779-0.981 for females and males combined. The non-spatial capture-recapture population growth rates were 0.894 (0.758-1.024 for females, 0.825 (0.700-0.948 for males, and 0.863 (0.771-0.957 for both sexes. The combination of low densities, low reproductive rates, and predominantly negative

  10. Estimate of the Effective Dose Equivalent to the Cypriot Population due to Diagnostic Nuclear Medicine Procedures in the Public Sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Christofides, S [Medical Physics Department, Nicosia General Hospital (Cyprus)

    1994-12-31

    The Effective Dose Equivalent (EDE) to the Cypriot population due to Diagnostic Nuclear Medicine procedures has been estimated from data published by the Government of Cyprus, in its Health and Hospital Statistics Series for the years 1990, 1991, and 1992. The average EDE per patient was estimated to be 3,09, 3,75 and 4,01 microSievert for 1990, 1991 and 1992 respectively, while the per caput EDE was estimated to be 11,75, 15,16 and 17,09 microSieverts for 1990, 1991 and 1992 respectively, from the procedures in the public sector. (author). 11 refs, 4 tabs.

  11. Estimate of the Effective Dose Equivalent to the Cypriot Population due to Diagnostic Nuclear Medicine Procedures in the Public Sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Christofides, S.

    1994-01-01

    The Effective Dose Equivalent (EDE) to the Cypriot population due to Diagnostic Nuclear Medicine procedures has been estimated from data published by the Government of Cyprus, in its Health and Hospital Statistics Series for the years 1990, 1991, and 1992. The average EDE per patient was estimated to be 3,09, 3,75 and 4,01 microSievert for 1990, 1991 and 1992 respectively, while the per caput EDE was estimated to be 11,75, 15,16 and 17,09 microSieverts for 1990, 1991 and 1992 respectively, from the procedures in the public sector. (author)

  12. Risk estimation and decision making: the health effects on populations of exposure to low levels of ionizing radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fabrikant, J.I.

    1982-01-01

    Presented is a background for an understanding of the potential health effects in populations exposed to low-level radiation. Discussed is the knowledge about the health effects of low-level radiation. Comments on how the risks of radiation-induced cancer and genetically-related ill-health in man may be estimated, the sources of the scientific and epidemiological data, the dose-response models used, and the uncertainties which limit precise estimates of excess risks from radiation. Also discussed are the implications of numerical risk estimation for radiation protection and decision-making for public health policy

  13. Free-Roaming Dog Population Estimation and Status of the Dog Population Management and Rabies Control Program in Dhaka City, Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tenzin, Tenzin; Ahmed, Rubaiya; Debnath, Nitish C.; Ahmed, Garba; Yamage, Mat

    2015-01-01

    Beginning January 2012, a humane method of dog population management using a Catch-Neuter-Vaccinate-Release (CNVR) program was implemented in Dhaka City, Bangladesh as part of the national rabies control program. To enable this program, the size and distribution of the free-roaming dog population needed to be estimated. We present the results of a dog population survey and a pilot assessment of the CNVR program coverage in Dhaka City. Free-roaming dog population surveys were undertaken in 18 wards of Dhaka City on consecutive days using mark-resight methods. Data was analyzed using Lincoln-Petersen index-Chapman correction methods. The CNVR program was assessed over the two years (2012–2013) whilst the coverage of the CNVR program was assessed by estimating the proportion of dogs that were ear-notched (processed dogs) via dog population surveys. The free-roaming dog population was estimated to be 1,242 (95 % CI: 1205–1278) in the 18 sampled wards and 18,585 dogs in Dhaka City (52 dogs/km2) with an estimated human-to-free-roaming dog ratio of 828:1. During the two year CNVR program, a total of 6,665 dogs (3,357 male and 3,308 female) were neutered and vaccinated against rabies in 29 of the 92 city wards. A pilot population survey indicated a mean CNVR coverage of 60.6% (range 19.2–79.3%) with only eight wards achieving > 70% coverage. Given that the coverage in many neighborhoods was below the WHO-recommended threshold level of 70% for rabies eradications and since the CNVR program takes considerable time to implement throughout the entire Dhaka City area, a mass dog vaccination program in the non-CNVR coverage area is recommended to create herd immunity. The findings from this study are expected to guide dog population management and the rabies control program in Dhaka City and elsewhere in Bangladesh. PMID:25978406

  14. An Evaluation of Population Density Mapping and Built up Area Estimates in Sri Lanka Using Multiple Methodologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engstrom, R.; Soundararajan, V.; Newhouse, D.

    2017-12-01

    In this study we examine how well multiple population density and built up estimates that utilize satellite data compare in Sri Lanka. The population relationship is examined at the Gram Niladhari (GN) level, the lowest administrative unit in Sri Lanka from the 2011 census. For this study we have two spatial domains, the whole country and a 3,500km2 sub-sample, for which we have complete high spatial resolution imagery coverage. For both the entire country and the sub-sample we examine how consistent are the existing publicly available measures of population constructed from satellite imagery at predicting population density? For just the sub-sample we examine how well do a suite of values derived from high spatial resolution satellite imagery predict population density and how does our built up area estimate compare to other publicly available estimates. Population measures were obtained from the Sri Lankan census, and were downloaded from Facebook, WorldPoP, GPW, and Landscan. Percentage built-up area at the GN level was calculated from three sources: Facebook, Global Urban Footprint (GUF), and the Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL). For the sub-sample we have derived a variety of indicators from the high spatial resolution imagery. Using deep learning convolutional neural networks, an object oriented, and a non-overlapping block, spatial feature approach. Variables calculated include: cars, shadows (a proxy for building height), built up area, and buildings, roof types, roads, type of agriculture, NDVI, Pantex, and Histogram of Oriented Gradients (HOG) and others. Results indicate that population estimates are accurate at the higher, DS Division level but not necessarily at the GN level. Estimates from Facebook correlated well with census population (GN correlation of 0.91) but measures from GPW and WorldPop are more weakly correlated (0.64 and 0.34). Estimates of built-up area appear to be reliable. In the 32 DSD-subsample, Facebook's built- up area measure

  15. Projections of the Size and Composition of the U.S. Population: 2014 to 2060. Population Estimates and Projections. Current Population Reports. P25-1143

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colby, Sandra L.; Ortman, Jennifer M.

    2015-01-01

    Between 2014 and 2060, the U.S. population is projected to increase from 319 million to 417 million, reaching 400 million in 2051. The U.S. population is projected to grow more slowly in future decades than in the recent past, as these projections assume that fertility rates will continue to decline and that there will be a modest decline in the…

  16. Zaburzenia odżywiania – dylematy diagnozy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maciej Wojciech Pilecki

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Celem badania było przedstawienie dylematów dotyczących diagnozy zaburzeń odżywiania się na przykładzie alternatywnego do kryteriów klinicznych podziału grupy dziewcząt z rozpoznaniem tych zaburzeń, uwzględniającego wyniki kwestionariuszy samooceny. Badaniem objęto 116 dziewcząt z rozpoznaniem któregoś z zaburzeń odżywiania się według DSM-IV, konsultowanych po raz pierwszy w latach 2002–2004 w ambulatorium Oddziału Klinicznego Psychiatrii Dzieci i Młodzieży Szpitala Uniwersyteckiego w Krakowie. Z uwagi na ograniczenia statystyczne modelu jedynie zmienne zależne, takie jak: samoocena obecności objawów depresyjnych (Kwestionariusz Depresji Becka, BDI, samoocena obecności problemów z odżywianiem się (Kwestionariusz Postaw wobec Odżywiania, EAT26, obraz siebie (Ja Społeczne Kwestionariusza Obrazu Siebie Offera, JaSpoł QSIA i relacje rodzinne (skala Intymności Skali Rodziny Pochodzenia, INT FOS, zostały poddane analizie skupień metodą k-średnich. Przeprowadzone analizy doprowadziły do wyłonienia pięciu skupień niepokrywających się z podziałem na poszczególne diagnozy kliniczne. Wszystkie skupienia różnią się wynikami tworzących je skal kwestionariuszowych. Pierwsze skupienie okazało się charakteryzować osoby o niskim w swojej ocenie nasileniu występowania problemów z odżywianiem się i depresyjności oraz korzystnym obrazie swojego funkcjonowania społecznego i relacji rodzinnych. Zależność obserwowana w skupieniu 5. była odwrotna. Przeważająca liczba pacjentek w skupieniu 1. miała rozpoznaną anoreksję restrykcyjną, a w skupieniu 5. bulimię. Najbardziej odmienne od pozostałych okazało się skupienie 3. Pozytywnemu obrazowi siebie, relacji rodzinnych w badanych obszarach towarzyszyło duże nasilenie występowania problemów z odżywianiem się i niskie depresyjności w samoocenie. Otrzymane wyniki wskazują, iż podział kliniczny zaburzeń odżywania się proponowany w ICD i

  17. Casting technology for ODS steels - the internal oxidation approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miran, S.; Franke, P.; Möslang, A.; Seifert, H. J.

    2017-07-01

    The formation of stainless ODS steel by internal oxidation of as-cast steel has been investigated. An alloy (Fe-16Cr-0.2Al-0.05Y, wt.%) was embedded in a (VO/V2O3) powder mixture serving as an oxygen activity buffer and heat treated at 1450 °C for 20 h. After this procedure no oxide scale was present on the surface of the sample but a zone of internal oxidation with a depth of about 2000 μm was formed in its interior. The precipitates within this zone consisted of two types of oxides. Discrete aluminium oxide particles with a size of a few micrometres were formed in outer regions of the specimen. Finer aluminium-yttrium oxides with a size of some hundred nanometres were mainly precipitated in inner regions of the sample. The results can be considered as a promising step towards an alternative production route for ODS steels.

  18. High temperature oxidation test of oxide dispersion strengthened (ODS) steel claddings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narita, Takeshi; Ukai, Shigeharu; Kaito, Takeji; Ohtsuka, Satoshi; Matsuda, Yasushi

    2006-07-01

    In a feasibility study of ODS steel cladding, its high temperature oxidation resistance was evaluated. Although addition of Cr is effective for preventing high temperature oxidation, excessively higher amount of Cr leads to embrittlement due to the Cr-rich α' precipitate formation. In the ODS steel developed by the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA), the Cr content is controlled in 9Cr-ODS martensite and 12Cr-ODS ferrite. In this study, high temperature oxidation test was conducted for ODS steels, and their results were compared with that of conventional austenitic stainless steel and ferritic-martensitic stainless steel. Following results were obtained in this study. (1) 9Cr-ODS martensitic and 12Cr-ODS ferritic steel have superior high temperature oxidation resistance compared to 11mass%Cr PNC-FMS and even 17mass% SUS430 and equivalent to austenitic PNC316. (2) The superior oxidation resistance of ODS steel was attributed to earlier formation of the protective alpha-Cr 2 O 3 layer at the matrix and inner oxide scale interface. The grain size of ODS steel is finer than that of PNC-FMS, so the superior oxidation resistance of ODS steel can be attributed to the enhanced Cr-supplying rate throughout the accelerated grain boundary diffusion. Finely dispersed Y 2 O 3 oxide particles in the ODS steel matrix may also stabilized the adherence between the protective alpha-Cr 2 O 3 layer and the matrix. (author)

  19. Integrating temperature-dependent life table data into a matrix projection model for Drosophila suzukii population estimation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nik G Wiman

    Full Text Available Temperature-dependent fecundity and survival data was integrated into a matrix population model to describe relative Drosophila suzukii Matsumura (Diptera: Drosophilidae population increase and age structure based on environmental conditions. This novel modification of the classic Leslie matrix population model is presented as a way to examine how insect populations interact with the environment, and has application as a predictor of population density. For D. suzukii, we examined model implications for pest pressure on crops. As case studies, we examined model predictions in three small fruit production regions in the United States (US and one in Italy. These production regions have distinctly different climates. In general, patterns of adult D. suzukii trap activity broadly mimicked seasonal population levels predicted by the model using only temperature data. Age structure of estimated populations suggest that trap and fruit infestation data are of limited value and are insufficient for model validation. Thus, we suggest alternative experiments for validation. The model is advantageous in that it provides stage-specific population estimation, which can potentially guide management strategies and provide unique opportunities to simulate stage-specific management effects such as insecticide applications or the effect of biological control on a specific life-stage. The two factors that drive initiation of the model are suitable temperatures (biofix and availability of a suitable host medium (fruit. Although there are many factors affecting population dynamics of D. suzukii in the field, temperature-dependent survival and reproduction are believed to be the main drivers for D. suzukii populations.

  20. Fracture behavior of the ODS steels prepared by internal oxidation

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Stratil, Luděk; Šiška, Filip; Hadraba, Hynek; Bártková, Denisa; Fintová, Stanislava; Puchý, V.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 124, NOV (2017), s. 1108-1111 ISSN 0920-3796 R&D Projects: GA ČR GJ15-21292Y; GA ČR(CZ) GA14-25246S Institutional support: RVO:68081723 Keywords : ODS * Internal oxidation * Fracture toughness * J-R curve * Fracture analysis Subject RIV: JG - Metallurgy OBOR OECD: Materials engineering Impact factor: 1.319, year: 2016

  1. An econometric method for estimating population parameters from non-random samples: An application to clinical case finding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burger, Rulof P; McLaren, Zoë M

    2017-09-01

    The problem of sample selection complicates the process of drawing inference about populations. Selective sampling arises in many real world situations when agents such as doctors and customs officials search for targets with high values of a characteristic. We propose a new method for estimating population characteristics from these types of selected samples. We develop a model that captures key features of the agent's sampling decision. We use a generalized method of moments with instrumental variables and maximum likelihood to estimate the population prevalence of the characteristic of interest and the agents' accuracy in identifying targets. We apply this method to tuberculosis (TB), which is the leading infectious disease cause of death worldwide. We use a national database of TB test data from South Africa to examine testing for multidrug resistant TB (MDR-TB). Approximately one quarter of MDR-TB cases was undiagnosed between 2004 and 2010. The official estimate of 2.5% is therefore too low, and MDR-TB prevalence is as high as 3.5%. Signal-to-noise ratios are estimated to be between 0.5 and 1. Our approach is widely applicable because of the availability of routinely collected data and abundance of potential instruments. Using routinely collected data to monitor population prevalence can guide evidence-based policy making. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  2. An estimate of the veteran population in England: based on data from the 2007 Adult Psychiatric Morbidity Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodhead, Charlotte; Sloggett, Andy; Bray, Issy; Bradbury, Jason; McManus, Sally; Meltzer, Howard; Brugha, Terry; Jenkins, Rachel; Greenberg, Neil; Wessely, Simon; Fear, Nicola

    2009-01-01

    The health and well-being of military veterans has recently generated much media and political interest. Estimating the current and future size of the veteran population is important to the planning and allocation of veteran support services. Data from a 2007 nationally representative residential survey of England (the Adult Psychiatric Morbidity Survey) were extrapolated to the whole population to estimate the number of veterans currently residing in private households in England. This population was projected forward in two ten-year blocks up to 2027 using a current life table. It was estimated that in 2007, 3,771,534 (95% CI: 2,986,315-4,910,205) veterans were living in residential households in England. By 2027, this figure was predicted to decline by 50.4 per cent, mainly due to large reductions in the number of veterans in the older age groups (65-74 and 75+ years). Approximately three to five million veterans are currently estimated to be living in the community in England. As the proportion of National Service veterans reduces with time, the veteran population is expected to halve over the next 20 years.

  3. Estimation of population dose and risk to holding assistants from veterinary X-ray examination in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hashizume, Tadashi; Suganuma, Tunenori; Shida, Takuo

    1989-01-01

    For the estimation of the population doses and risks of stochastic effects to assistants who hold animals during veterinary X-ray examination, a random survey of hospitals and clinics was carried out concerning age distribution of such assistants by groups of facilities. The average organ and tissue dose per examination was evaluated from the experimental data using mean technical factors such as X-ray tube voltage, tube current and field size based on the results of a nationwide survey. The population doses to the assistants were calculated to be about 14 nSv per person per year for the genetically significant dose, 3.5 nSv per person per year for per caput mean marrow dose, 3.3 nSv for the leukemia significant dose and 4.5 nSv for the malignant significant dose, respectively. The total risk of stochastic effects to the Japanese population from holding assistants was estimated using population data and it was estimated to be less than one person per year, but the cancer risks to a number of the assistants were estimated to be more than 4 x 10 -5 . (author)

  4. Comparison of ArcGIS and SAS Geostatistical Analyst to Estimate Population-Weighted Monthly Temperature for US Counties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiaopeng, Q I; Liang, Wei; Barker, Laurie; Lekiachvili, Akaki; Xingyou, Zhang

    Temperature changes are known to have significant impacts on human health. Accurate estimates of population-weighted average monthly air temperature for US counties are needed to evaluate temperature's association with health behaviours and disease, which are sampled or reported at the county level and measured on a monthly-or 30-day-basis. Most reported temperature estimates were calculated using ArcGIS, relatively few used SAS. We compared the performance of geostatistical models to estimate population-weighted average temperature in each month for counties in 48 states using ArcGIS v9.3 and SAS v 9.2 on a CITGO platform. Monthly average temperature for Jan-Dec 2007 and elevation from 5435 weather stations were used to estimate the temperature at county population centroids. County estimates were produced with elevation as a covariate. Performance of models was assessed by comparing adjusted R 2 , mean squared error, root mean squared error, and processing time. Prediction accuracy for split validation was above 90% for 11 months in ArcGIS and all 12 months in SAS. Cokriging in SAS achieved higher prediction accuracy and lower estimation bias as compared to cokriging in ArcGIS. County-level estimates produced by both packages were positively correlated (adjusted R 2 range=0.95 to 0.99); accuracy and precision improved with elevation as a covariate. Both methods from ArcGIS and SAS are reliable for U.S. county-level temperature estimates; However, ArcGIS's merits in spatial data pre-processing and processing time may be important considerations for software selection, especially for multi-year or multi-state projects.

  5. Nose profile morphology and accuracy study of nose profile estimation method in Scottish subadult and Indonesian adult populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarilita, Erli; Rynn, Christopher; Mossey, Peter A; Black, Sue; Oscandar, Fahmi

    2018-05-01

    This study investigated nose profile morphology and its relationship to the skull in Scottish subadult and Indonesian adult populations, with the aim of improving the accuracy of forensic craniofacial reconstruction. Samples of 86 lateral head cephalograms from Dundee Dental School (mean age, 11.8 years) and 335 lateral head cephalograms from the Universitas Padjadjaran Dental Hospital, Bandung, Indonesia (mean age 24.2 years), were measured. The method of nose profile estimation based on skull morphology previously proposed by Rynn and colleagues in 2010 (FSMP 6:20-34) was tested in this study. Following this method, three nasal aperture-related craniometrics and six nose profile dimensions were measured from the cephalograms. To assess the accuracy of the method, six nose profile dimensions were estimated from the three craniometric parameters using the published method and then compared to the actual nose profile dimensions.In the Scottish subadult population, no sexual dimorphism was evident in the measured dimensions. In contrast, sexual dimorphism of the Indonesian adult population was evident in all craniometric and nose profile dimensions; notably, males exhibited statistically significant larger values than females. The published method by Rynn and colleagues (FSMP 6:20-34, 2010) performed better in the Scottish subadult population (mean difference of maximum, 2.35 mm) compared to the Indonesian adult population (mean difference of maximum, 5.42 mm in males and 4.89 mm in females).In addition, regression formulae were derived to estimate nose profile dimensions based on the craniometric measurements for the Indonesian adult population. The published method is not sufficiently accurate for use on the Indonesian population, so the derived method should be used. The accuracy of the published method by Rynn and colleagues (FSMP 6:20-34, 2010) was sufficiently reliable to be applied in Scottish subadult population.

  6. Strangeness photoproduction at the BGO-OD experiment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jude, Thomas [Physikalisches Institut, Bonn University (Germany); Collaboration: BGO-OD-Collaboration

    2016-07-01

    The BGO-OD experiment at the ELSA accelerator facility uses an energy tagged bremstrahlung photon beam to investigate the internal structure of the nucleon. The setup consists of a highly segmented BGO calorimeter surrounding the target, with a particle tracking magnetic spectrometer at forward angles. Compared to constituent quark models (CQMs), models including psuedoscalar meson-baryon interactions have had improved success in describing baryon excitation spectra. For example, the Λ(1405) appears to be dynamically generated from meson-baryon interactions at least to some extent. Vector-meson baryon interactions have also been predicted to dynamically generate states, which may have been observed in photoproduction reactions. BGO-OD is ideal for investigating low momentum transfer processes due to the acceptance and high momentum resolution at forward angles. This enables the investigation of degrees of freedom not derived from CQMs, and in particular, strangeness photoproduction where t-channel exchange mechanisms play a dominant role. With the first major data taking periods for BGO-OD complete, an extensive programme for the investigation of associated strangeness photoproduction has begun.

  7. Evaluation of Ion Irradiation Behavior of ODS Alloys

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jang, Jin Sung; Kim, Min Chul; Hong, Jun Hwa; Han, Chang Hee; Chang, Young Mun; Bae, Chang Soo; Bae, Yoon Young; Chang, Moon Hee

    2006-08-15

    FM steel (Grade 92) and ODS alloy(MA956) specimens were ion irradiated with 122 MeV Ne ions. Irradiation temperatures were about 450 and 550 .deg. C and the peak dose was 1, 5, and 10 dpa. Cross-sectional TEM samples were prepared by the electrolytic Ni-plating after pre-treatment of the irradiated specimens. Irradiation cavities in FM steel and ODS alloy specimens were not much different in size; about 20 nm in diameter in both specimens irradiated at around 450 .deg. C. However, the size distribution of cavities in FM steel specimens was broader than that in ODS alloy specimen, indicating that the cavity growth probably via coalescence). It was noticeable that the location and the preferential growth of the cavities in FM steel specimens: cavities on the PAGB (prior austenite grain boundary) was significantly larger than those within the grains. This could be an important issue for the mechanical properties, especially high temperature creep, fracture toughness, and so on. The dependency of the dose threshold and swelling on the ratio of the inert gas concentration/dpa was analysed for the various irradiation source, including He, Ne, Fe/He, and fast neutron, and the empirical correlation was established.

  8. Evaluation of Ion Irradiation Behavior of ODS Alloys

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jang, Jin Sung; Kim, Min Chul; Hong, Jun Hwa; Han, Chang Hee; Chang, Young Mun; Bae, Chang Soo; Bae, Yoon Young; Chang, Moon Hee

    2006-08-01

    FM steel (Grade 92) and ODS alloy(MA956) specimens were ion irradiated with 122 MeV Ne ions. Irradiation temperatures were about 450 and 550 .deg. C and the peak dose was 1, 5, and 10 dpa. Cross-sectional TEM samples were prepared by the electrolytic Ni-plating after pre-treatment of the irradiated specimens. Irradiation cavities in FM steel and ODS alloy specimens were not much different in size; about 20 nm in diameter in both specimens irradiated at around 450 .deg. C. However, the size distribution of cavities in FM steel specimens was broader than that in ODS alloy specimen, indicating that the cavity growth probably via coalescence). It was noticeable that the location and the preferential growth of the cavities in FM steel specimens: cavities on the PAGB (prior austenite grain boundary) was significantly larger than those within the grains. This could be an important issue for the mechanical properties, especially high temperature creep, fracture toughness, and so on. The dependency of the dose threshold and swelling on the ratio of the inert gas concentration/dpa was analysed for the various irradiation source, including He, Ne, Fe/He, and fast neutron, and the empirical correlation was established

  9. Effect of Trait Heritability, Training Population Size and Marker Density on Genomic Prediction Accuracy Estimation in 22 bi-parental Tropical Maize Populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ao; Wang, Hongwu; Beyene, Yoseph; Semagn, Kassa; Liu, Yubo; Cao, Shiliang; Cui, Zhenhai; Ruan, Yanye; Burgueño, Juan; San Vicente, Felix; Olsen, Michael; Prasanna, Boddupalli M; Crossa, José; Yu, Haiqiu; Zhang, Xuecai

    2017-01-01

    Genomic selection is being used increasingly in plant breeding to accelerate genetic gain per unit time. One of the most important applications of genomic selection in maize breeding is to predict and select the best un-phenotyped lines in bi-parental populations based on genomic estimated breeding values. In the present study, 22 bi-parental tropical maize populations genotyped with low density SNPs were used to evaluate the genomic prediction accuracy ( r MG ) of the six trait-environment combinations under various levels of training population size (TPS) and marker density (MD), and assess the effect of trait heritability ( h 2 ), TPS and MD on r MG estimation. Our results showed that: (1) moderate r MG values were obtained for different trait-environment combinations, when 50% of the total genotypes was used as training population and ~200 SNPs were used for prediction; (2) r MG increased with an increase in h 2 , TPS and MD, both correlation and variance analyses showed that h 2 is the most important factor and MD is the least important factor on r MG estimation for most of the trait-environment combinations; (3) predictions between pairwise half-sib populations showed that the r MG values for all the six trait-environment combinations were centered around zero, 49% predictions had r MG values above zero; (4) the trend observed in r MG differed with the trend observed in r MG / h , and h is the square root of heritability of the predicted trait, it indicated that both r MG and r MG / h values should be presented in GS study to show the accuracy of genomic selection and the relative accuracy of genomic selection compared with phenotypic selection, respectively. This study provides useful information to maize breeders to design genomic selection workflow in their breeding programs.

  10. Effect of Trait Heritability, Training Population Size and Marker Density on Genomic Prediction Accuracy Estimation in 22 bi-parental Tropical Maize Populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ao Zhang

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Genomic selection is being used increasingly in plant breeding to accelerate genetic gain per unit time. One of the most important applications of genomic selection in maize breeding is to predict and select the best un-phenotyped lines in bi-parental populations based on genomic estimated breeding values. In the present study, 22 bi-parental tropical maize populations genotyped with low density SNPs were used to evaluate the genomic prediction accuracy (rMG of the six trait-environment combinations under various levels of training population size (TPS and marker density (MD, and assess the effect of trait heritability (h2, TPS and MD on rMG estimation. Our results showed that: (1 moderate rMG values were obtained for different trait-environment combinations, when 50% of the total genotypes was used as training population and ~200 SNPs were used for prediction; (2 rMG increased with an increase in h2, TPS and MD, both correlation and variance analyses showed that h2 is the most important factor and MD is the least important factor on rMG estimation for most of the trait-environment combinations; (3 predictions between pairwise half-sib populations showed that the rMG values for all the six trait-environment combinations were centered around zero, 49% predictions had rMG values above zero; (4 the trend observed in rMG differed with the trend observed in rMG/h, and h is the square root of heritability of the predicted trait, it indicated that both rMG and rMG/h values should be presented in GS study to show the accuracy of genomic selection and the relative accuracy of genomic selection compared with phenotypic selection, respectively. This study provides useful information to maize breeders to design genomic selection workflow in their breeding programs.

  11. Reliable Quantification of the Potential for Equations Based on Spot Urine Samples to Estimate Population Salt Intake

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Huang, Liping; Crino, Michelle; Wu, Jason Hy

    2016-01-01

    to a standard format. Individual participant records will be compiled and a series of analyses will be completed to: (1) compare existing equations for estimating 24-hour salt intake from spot urine samples with 24-hour urine samples, and assess the degree of bias according to key demographic and clinical......BACKGROUND: Methods based on spot urine samples (a single sample at one time-point) have been identified as a possible alternative approach to 24-hour urine samples for determining mean population salt intake. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to identify a reliable method for estimating mean...... population salt intake from spot urine samples. This will be done by comparing the performance of existing equations against one other and against estimates derived from 24-hour urine samples. The effects of factors such as ethnicity, sex, age, body mass index, antihypertensive drug use, health status...

  12. IODES, Calculating the Estimation of Dose to the World Population from Releases of Iodine-129 to the Environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    1 - Description of program or function: IODES is a dynamic linear compartment model of the global iodine cycle which estimates long-term doses and dose commitments to the world population from releases of 129 I to the environment. The global environment is divided into different compartments comprising the atmosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, and terrestrial biosphere. The global transport of iodine is described by means of time-invariant fractional transfer rates between the environmental compartments. The fractional transfer rates for 129 I are determined primarily from available data on compartment inventories and fluxes for naturally occurring stable iodine and from data on the global hydrologic cycle. The dose to the world population is estimated from the calculated compartment inventories of 129 I, the known compartment inventories of stable iodine, a pathway analysis of the intake of iodine by a reference individual, dose conversion factors for inhalation and ingestion, and an estimate of the world population. For an assumed constant population of 12.21 billion beyond the year 2075, the estimated population dose commitment is 2 x 105 man-rem/Ci. 2 - Methods: IODES calculates 129 I inventories in the different environmental compartments and individual and population doses as a function of time after a release to the environment by solving a set of simultaneous first-order linear differential equations using numerical methods. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: - The subroutine LSODE for solving the differential equations is provided online at the ORNL computer center and, thus, is not included in the IODES code package. If the LSODE routine is not available to the user, then an appropriate differential equation routine must be supplied by the user, and the initialization of parameters and the call statement for LSODE in the main program must be changed accordingly

  13. Effect of Broadband Nature of Marine Mammal Echolocation Clicks on Click-Based Population Density Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-30

    No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing...will be applied also to other species such as sperm whale (Physeter macrocephalus) (whose high source level assures long range detection and amplifies...improve the accuracy of marine mammal density estimation based on counting echolocation clicks, and will be applicable to density estimates obtained

  14. Terrestrial gamma tracking: estimation of population exposition to radioactivity in urban areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Souza, Elder Magalhães de

    2017-01-01

    In this work, measurements of Ambient Dose Equivalent, H⁎(10) in urban and rural areas is proposed to assess and estimate the dose and external dose in cases of radiological or nuclear accidents. These measurements will enable the calculation and estimation of population exposure to environmental and urban radioactivity to be performed within the parameters proposed by the IAEA and UNSCEAR. To take into account the influence of background gamma radiation on radiometric measurements, all the detectors used, AT6101C, SPARCS A1 and SPARCS M1 systems, were calibrated using IRD's extensive set of planar sources. Also, a methodology for the gamma radiation terrestrial survey is proposed to use the gamma in situ spectrometry systems in H⁎(10) measurements. Shielding effects due to the use of detection systems inside vehicles were evaluated and the corresponding corrections factors calculated are 1.45 for the AT6101C detector, 1.77 for SPARCS A1 and 1.82 for SPARCS M1. The terrestrial survey to determine the value of Ambient Dose Equivalent was performed in areas not subject to intense radioactive anomalies. Among these areas are included the cities: Angra dos Reis and Paraty (State of Rio de Janeiro), Abadia de Goiás, Goiânia, Cristalina and Itumbiara (State of Goiás), Ribeirão Preto and Campinas (State of São Paulo), Brasília-DF (Federal District), Belo Horizonte, Ubá and cities of Zona da Mata (State of Minas Gerais) and Manaus (State of Amazonas). The average altitude of the cities ranged from the sea level in the cities of Angra dos Reis and Paraty to 1100 meters in Brasilia. The number of inhabitants ranged from 3,000 in Divinésia to 3 million in Brasília-DF. The mean values of H⁎(10) ranged from 63 nSv/h in Itumbiara to 170 nSv/h in Ubá. The minimum and maximum values found ranged from 25 nSv/h in Manaus to 347 nSv/h in Belo Horizonte. The average altitude of the cities ranged from the sea level in the cities of Angra dos Reis and Paraty to 1100

  15. Estimating population heat exposure and impacts on working people in conjunction with climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kjellstrom, Tord; Freyberg, Chris; Lemke, Bruno; Otto, Matthias; Briggs, David

    2018-03-01

    Increased environmental heat levels as a result of climate change present a major challenge to the health, wellbeing and sustainability of human communities in already hot parts of this planet. This challenge has many facets from direct clinical health effects of daily heat exposure to indirect effects related to poor air quality, poor access to safe drinking water, poor access to nutritious and safe food and inadequate protection from disease vectors and environmental toxic chemicals. The increasing environmental heat is a threat to environmental sustainability. In addition, social conditions can be undermined by the negative effects of increased heat on daily work and life activities and on local cultural practices. The methodology we describe can be used to produce quantitative estimates of the impacts of climate change on work activities in countries and local communities. We show in maps the increasing heat exposures in the shade expressed as the occupational heat stress index Wet Bulb Globe Temperature. Some tropical and sub-tropical areas already experience serious heat stress, and the continuing heating will substantially reduce work capacity and labour productivity in widening parts of the world. Southern parts of Europe and the USA will also be affected. Even the lowest target for climate change (average global temperature change = 1.5 °C at representative concentration pathway (RCP2.6) will increase the loss of daylight work hour output due to heat in many tropical areas from less than 2% now up to more than 6% at the end of the century. A global temperature change of 2.7 °C (at RCP6.0) will double this annual heat impact on work in such areas. Calculations of this type of heat impact at country level show that in the USA, the loss of work capacity in moderate level work in the shade will increase from 0.17% now to more than 1.3% at the end of the century based on the 2.7 °C temperature change. The impact is naturally mainly occurring in the southern

  16. Estimating the inbreeding depression on cognitive behavior: a population based study of child cohort.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohd Fareed

    Full Text Available Cognitive ability tests are widely assumed to measure maximal intellectual performance and predictive associations between intelligence quotient (IQ scores and later mental health problems. Very few epidemiologic studies have been done to demonstrate the relationship between familial inbreeding and modest cognitive impairments in children.We aimed to estimate the effect of inbreeding on children's cognitive behavior in comparison with non-inbred children.A cohort of 408 children (6 to 15 years of age was selected from inbred and non-inbred families of five Muslim populations of Jammu region. The Wechsler Intelligence Scales for Children (WISC was used to measure the verbal IQ (VIQ, performance IQ (PIQ and full scale IQ (FSIQ. Family pedigrees were drawn to access the family history and children's inbred status in terms of coefficient of inbreeding (F.We found significant decline in child cognitive abilities due to inbreeding and high frequency of mental retardation among offspring from inbred families. The mean differences (95% C.I. were reported for the VIQ, being -22.00 (-24.82, -19.17, PIQ -26.92 (-29.96, -23.87 and FSIQ -24.47 (-27.35,-21.59 for inbred as compared to non-inbred children (p<0.001 [corrected].The higher risk of being mentally retarded was found to be more obvious among inbred categories corresponding to the degree of inbreeding and the same accounts least for non-inbred children (p<0.0001. We observed an increase in the difference in mean values for VIQ, PIQ and FSIQ with the increase of inbreeding coefficient and these were found to be statistically significant (p<0.05. The regression analysis showed a fitness decline (depression for VIQ (R2 = 0.436, PIQ (R2 = 0.468 and FSIQ (R2 = 0.464 with increasing inbreeding coefficients (p<0.01.Our comprehensive assessment provides the evidence for inbreeding depression on cognitive abilities among children.

  17. Effects of population variability on the accuracy of detection probability estimates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ordonez Gloria, Alejandro

    2011-01-01

    Observing a constant fraction of the population over time, locations, or species is virtually impossible. Hence, quantifying this proportion (i.e. detection probability) is an important task in quantitative population ecology. In this study we determined, via computer simulations, the ef- fect of...

  18. Influence of Erroneous Patient Records on Population Pharmacokinetic Modeling and Individual Bayesian Estimation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Meer, Aize Franciscus; Touw, Daniel J.; Marcus, Marco A. E.; Neef, Cornelis; Proost, Johannes H.

    2012-01-01

    Background: Observational data sets can be used for population pharmacokinetic (PK) modeling. However, these data sets are generally less precisely recorded than experimental data sets. This article aims to investigate the influence of erroneous records on population PK modeling and individual

  19. Estimating 24-hour urinary sodium excretion from casual urinary sodium concentrations in Western populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brown, Ian J; Dyer, Alan R; Chan, Queenie

    2013-01-01

    High intakes of dietary sodium are associated with elevated blood pressure levels and an increased risk of cardiovascular disease. National and international guidelines recommend reduced sodium intake in the general population, which necessitates population-wide surveillance. We assessed the util...

  20. Estimating Divergence Time and Ancestral Effective Population Size of Bornean and Sumatran Orangutan Subspecies Using a Coalescent Hidden Markov Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mailund, Thomas; Dutheil, Julien; Hobolth, Asger

    2011-01-01

    event has occurred to split them apart. The size of these segments of constant divergence depends on the recombination rate, but also on the speciation time, the effective population size of the ancestral population, as well as demographic effects and selection. Thus, inference of these parameters may......, and the ancestral effective population size. The model is efficient enough to allow inference on whole-genome data sets. We first investigate the power and consistency of the model with coalescent simulations and then apply it to the whole-genome sequences of the two orangutan sub-species, Bornean (P. p. pygmaeus......) and Sumatran (P. p. abelii) orangutans from the Orangutan Genome Project. We estimate the speciation time between the two sub-species to be thousand years ago and the effective population size of the ancestral orangutan species to be , consistent with recent results based on smaller data sets. We also report...

  1. Estimating the HIV undiagnosed population in Catalonia, Spain: descriptive and comparative data analysis to identify differences in MSM stratified by migrant and Spanish-born population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Colin N J; Vives, Núria; Esteve, Anna; Ambrosioni, Juan; Tural, Cristina; Ferrer, Elena; Navarro, Gemma; Force, Lluis; García, Isabel; Masabeu, Àngels; Vilaró, Josep M; García de Olalla, Patricia; Caylà, Joan Artur; Miró, Josep M; Casabona, Jordi

    2018-01-01

    Objective Undiagnosed HIV continues to be a hindrance to efforts aimed at reducing incidence of HIV. The objective of this study was to provide an estimate of the HIV undiagnosed population in Catalonia and compare the HIV care cascade with this step included between high-risk populations. Methods To estimate HIV incidence, time between infection and diagnosis and the undiagnosed population stratified by CD4 count, we used the ECDC HIV Modelling Tool V.1.2.2. This model uses data on new HIV and AIDS diagnoses from the Catalan HIV/AIDS surveillance system from 2001 to 2013. Data used to estimate the proportion of people enrolled, on ART and virally suppressed in the HIV care cascade were derived from the PISCIS cohort. Results The total number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) in Catalonia in 2013 was 34 729 (32 740 to 36 827), with 12.3% (11.8 to 18.1) of whom were undiagnosed. By 2013, there were 8458 (8101 to 9079) Spanish-born men who have sex with men (MSM) and 2538 (2334 to 2918) migrant MSM living with HIV in Catalonia. A greater proportion of migrant MSM than local MSM was undiagnosed (32% vs 22%). In the subsequent steps of the HIV care cascade, migrants MSM experience greater losses than the Spanish-born MSM: in retention in care (74% vs 55%), in the proportion on combination antiretroviral treatment (70% vs 50%) and virally suppressed (65% vs 46%). Conclusions By the end of 2013, there were an estimated 34 729 PLHIV in Catalonia, of whom 4271 were still undiagnosed. This study shows that the Catalan epidemic of HIV has continued to expand with the key group sustaining HIV transmission being MSM living with undiagnosed HIV. PMID:29490955

  2. Estimating the HIV undiagnosed population in Catalonia, Spain: descriptive and comparative data analysis to identify differences in MSM stratified by migrant and Spanish-born population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyes-Urueña, Juliana Maria; Campbell, Colin N J; Vives, Núria; Esteve, Anna; Ambrosioni, Juan; Tural, Cristina; Ferrer, Elena; Navarro, Gemma; Force, Lluis; García, Isabel; Masabeu, Àngels; Vilaró, Josep M; García de Olalla, Patricia; Caylà, Joan Artur; Miró, Josep M; Casabona, Jordi

    2018-02-28

    Undiagnosed HIV continues to be a hindrance to efforts aimed at reducing incidence of HIV. The objective of this study was to provide an estimate of the HIV undiagnosed population in Catalonia and compare the HIV care cascade with this step included between high-risk populations. To estimate HIV incidence, time between infection and diagnosis and the undiagnosed population stratified by CD4 count, we used the ECDC HIV Modelling Tool V.1.2.2. This model uses data on new HIV and AIDS diagnoses from the Catalan HIV/AIDS surveillance system from 2001 to 2013. Data used to estimate the proportion of people enrolled, on ART and virally suppressed in the HIV care cascade were derived from the PISCIS cohort. The total number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) in Catalonia in 2013 was 34 729 (32 740 to 36 827), with 12.3% (11.8 to 18.1) of whom were undiagnosed. By 2013, there were 8458 (8101 to 9079) Spanish-born men who have sex with men (MSM) and 2538 (2334 to 2918) migrant MSM living with HIV in Catalonia. A greater proportion of migrant MSM than local MSM was undiagnosed (32% vs 22%). In the subsequent steps of the HIV care cascade, migrants MSM experience greater losses than the Spanish-born MSM: in retention in care (74% vs 55%), in the proportion on combination antiretroviral treatment (70% vs 50%) and virally suppressed (65% vs 46%). By the end of 2013, there were an estimated 34 729 PLHIV in Catalonia, of whom 4271 were still undiagnosed. This study shows that the Catalan epidemic of HIV has continued to expand with the key group sustaining HIV transmission being MSM living with undiagnosed HIV. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  3. Estimating the population density of the Asian tapir (Tapirus indicus) in a selectively logged forest in Peninsular Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rayan, D Mark; Mohamad, Shariff Wan; Dorward, Leejiah; Aziz, Sheema Abdul; Clements, Gopalasamy Reuben; Christopher, Wong Chai Thiam; Traeholt, Carl; Magintan, David

    2012-12-01

    The endangered Asian tapir (Tapirus indicus) is threatened by large-scale habitat loss, forest fragmentation and increased hunting pressure. Conservation planning for this species, however, is hampered by a severe paucity of information on its ecology and population status. We present the first Asian tapir population density estimate from a camera trapping study targeting tigers in a selectively logged forest within Peninsular Malaysia using a spatially explicit capture-recapture maximum likelihood based framework. With a trap effort of 2496 nights, 17 individuals were identified corresponding to a density (standard error) estimate of 9.49 (2.55) adult tapirs/100 km(2) . Although our results include several caveats, we believe that our density estimate still serves as an important baseline to facilitate the monitoring of tapir population trends in Peninsular Malaysia. Our study also highlights the potential of extracting vital ecological and population information for other cryptic individually identifiable animals from tiger-centric studies, especially with the use of a spatially explicit capture-recapture maximum likelihood based framework. © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd, ISZS and IOZ/CAS.

  4. Estimating the population size and colony boundary of subterranean termites by using the density functions of directionally averaged capture probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Nan-Yao; Lee, Sang-Hee

    2008-04-01

    Marked termites were released in a linear-connected foraging arena, and the spatial heterogeneity of their capture probabilities was averaged for both directions at distance r from release point to obtain a symmetrical distribution, from which the density function of directionally averaged capture probability P(x) was derived. We hypothesized that as marked termites move into the population and given sufficient time, the directionally averaged capture probability may reach an equilibrium P(e) over the distance r and thus satisfy the equal mixing assumption of the mark-recapture protocol. The equilibrium capture probability P(e) was used to estimate the population size N. The hypothesis was tested in a 50-m extended foraging arena to simulate the distance factor of field colonies of subterranean termites. Over the 42-d test period, the density functions of directionally averaged capture probability P(x) exhibited four phases: exponential decline phase, linear decline phase, equilibrium phase, and postequilibrium phase. The equilibrium capture probability P(e), derived as the intercept of the linear regression during the equilibrium phase, correctly projected N estimates that were not significantly different from the known number of workers in the arena. Because the area beneath the probability density function is a constant (50% in this study), preequilibrium regression parameters and P(e) were used to estimate the population boundary distance 1, which is the distance between the release point and the boundary beyond which the population is absent.

  5. Effect of zirconium addition on the microstructure and mechanical properties of ODS ferritic steels containing aluminum

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao, R.; Zhang, T.; Wang, X.P.; Fang, Q.F.; Liu, C.S.

    2014-01-01

    The oxide dispersion strengthened (ODS) ferritic steels with nominal composition of Fe–16Cr–2W–0.5Ti–0.4Y 2 O 3 –4Al–1Zr (16Cr–4Al–Zr–ODS) were fabricated by a sol–gel method combining with mechanical alloying and spark plasma sintering (SPS) technique, and the 16Cr–ODS and 16Cr–4Al–ODS steels were prepared for comparison in the same way. Microstructure characterization reveals that in the 16Cr–4Al–ODS steel coarse Y–Al–O particles were formed while in the 16Cr–4Al–Zr–ODS steel finer Y–Zr–O particles were formed. The mean size and number density of the nano-oxide particles in the 16Cr–4Al–Zr–ODS steel are about 25 nm and 2.6 × 10 21 /m 3 , respectively. The ultimate tensile strength (UTS) of the 16Cr–ODS steel is about 1045 MPa, but UTS of the 16Cr–4Al–ODS steel decreases to 974 MPa. However, UTS of the 16Cr–4Al–Zr–ODS steel increases to 1180 MPa while keeping a large uniform elongation up to 23%, indicating the enhancement of mechanical properties by Zr addition

  6. Long-term response to genomic selection: effects of estimation method and reference population structure for different genetic architectures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bastiaansen, John W M; Coster, Albart; Calus, Mario P L; van Arendonk, Johan A M; Bovenhuis, Henk

    2012-01-24

    Genomic selection has become an important tool in the genetic improvement of animals and plants. The objective of this study was to investigate the impacts of breeding value estimation method, reference population structure, and trait genetic architecture, on long-term response to genomic selection without updating marker effects. Three methods were used to estimate genomic breeding values: a BLUP method with relationships estimated from genome-wide markers (GBLUP), a Bayesian method, and a partial least squares regression method (PLSR). A shallow (individuals from one generation) or deep reference population (individuals from five generations) was used with each method. The effects of the different selection approaches were compared under four different genetic architectures for the trait under selection. Selection was based on one of the three genomic breeding values, on pedigree BLUP breeding values, or performed at random. Selection continued for ten generations. Differences in long-term selection response were small. For a genetic architecture with a very small number of three to four quantitative trait loci (QTL), the Bayesian method achieved a response that was 0.05 to 0.1 genetic standard deviation higher than other methods in generation 10. For genetic architectures with approximately 30 to 300 QTL, PLSR (shallow reference) or GBLUP (deep reference) had an average advantage of 0.2 genetic standard deviation over the Bayesian method in generation 10. GBLUP resulted in 0.6% and 0.9% less inbreeding than PLSR and BM and on average a one third smaller reduction of genetic variance. Responses in early generations were greater with the shallow reference population while long-term response was not affected by reference population structure. The ranking of estimation methods was different with than without selection. Under selection, applying GBLUP led to lower inbreeding and a smaller reduction of genetic variance while a similar response to selection was

  7. Racemization of aspartic acid in root dentin as a tool for age estimation in a Kuwaiti population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elfawal, Mohamed Amin; Alqattan, Sahib Issa; Ghallab, Noha Ayman

    2015-01-01

    Estimation of age is one of the most significant tasks in forensic practice. Amino acid racemization is considered one of the most reliable and accurate methods of age estimation and aspartic acid shows a high racemization reaction rate. The present study has investigated the application of aspartic acid racemization in age estimation in a Kuwaiti population using root dentin from a total of 89 upper first premolar teeth. The D/L ratio of aspartic acid was obtained by HPLC technique in a test group of 50 subjects and a linear regression line was established between aspartic acid racemization and age. The correlation coefficient (r) was 0.97, and the standard error of estimation was ±1.26 years. The racemization age "t" of each subject was calculated by applying the following formula: ln [(1 + D/L)/(1 - D/L)] = 0.003181 t + (-0.01591). When the proposed formula "estimated age t = ln [(1 + D/L)/(1 - D/L)] + 0.01591/0.003181" was applied to a validation group of 39 subjects, the range of error was less than one year in 82.1% of the cases and the standard error of estimation was ±1.12. The current work has established a reasonably significant correlation of the D-/L-aspartic acid ratio with age, and proposed an apparently reliable formula for calculating the age in Kuwaiti populations through aspartic acid racemization. Further research is required to find out whether similar findings are applicable to other ethnic populations. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

  8. Microstructure characterization and strengthening mechanisms of oxide dispersion strengthened (ODS) Fe-9%Cr and Fe-14%Cr extruded bars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chauhan, A.; Bergner, F.; Etienne, A.; Aktaa, J.; de Carlan, Y.; Heintze, C.; Litvinov, D.; Hernandez-Mayoral, M.; Oñorbe, E.; Radiguet, B.; Ulbricht, A.

    2017-11-01

    The collaborative study is focused on the relationship between microstructure and yield stress for an ODS Fe-9%Cr-based transformable alloy and an ODS Fe-14%Cr-based ferritic alloy. The contributions to the total room temperature yield stress arising from various strengthening mechanisms are addressed on the basis of a comprehensive description of the microstructures uncovered by means of transmission electron microscopy (TEM), electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD), small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) and atom probe tomography (APT). While these methods provide a high degree of complementarity, a reasonable agreement was found in cases of overlap of information. The derived set of microstructure parameters along with reported strengthening equations was used to calculate the room temperature yield stress. The estimates were critically compared with the measured yield stress for an extended set of alloys including data reported for Fe-Cr model alloys and steels thus covering one order of magnitude or more in grain size, dislocation density, particle density and yield stress. The comparison shows that particle strengthening, dislocation forest strengthening, and Hall-Petch strengthening are the major contributions and that a mixed superposition rule reproduces the measured yield stress within experimental scatter for the whole extended set of alloys. The wide variation of microstructures additionally underpins the conclusions and goes beyond previous work, in which one or few ODS steels and narrow microstructure variations were typically covered.

  9. Estimation of stature from the foot and its segments in a sub-adult female population of North India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krishan Kewal

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Establishing personal identity is one of the main concerns in forensic investigations. Estimation of stature forms a basic domain of the investigation process in unknown and co-mingled human remains in forensic anthropology case work. The objective of the present study was to set up standards for estimation of stature from the foot and its segments in a sub-adult female population. Methods The sample for the study constituted 149 young females from the Northern part of India. The participants were aged between 13 and 18 years. Besides stature, seven anthropometric measurements that included length of the foot from each toe (T1, T2, T3, T4, and T5 respectively, foot breadth at ball (BBAL and foot breadth at heel (BHEL were measured on both feet in each participant using standard methods and techniques. Results The results indicated that statistically significant differences (p p-value Conclusions The present study concluded that foot measurements have a strong relationship with stature in the sub-adult female population of North India. Hence, the stature of an individual can be successfully estimated from the foot and its segments using different regression models derived in the study. The regression models derived in the study may be applied successfully for the estimation of stature in sub-adult females, whenever foot remains are brought for forensic examination. Stepwise multiple regression models tend to estimate stature more accurately than linear regression models in female sub-adults.

  10. Pair and triplet approximation of a spatial lattice population model with multiscale dispersal using Markov chains for estimating spatial autocorrelation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiebeler, David E; Millett, Nicholas E

    2011-06-21

    We investigate a spatial lattice model of a population employing dispersal to nearest and second-nearest neighbors, as well as long-distance dispersal across the landscape. The model is studied via stochastic spatial simulations, ordinary pair approximation, and triplet approximation. The latter method, which uses the probabilities of state configurations of contiguous blocks of three sites as its state variables, is demonstrated to be greatly superior to pair approximations for estimating spatial correlation information at various scales. Correlations between pairs of sites separated by arbitrary distances are estimated by constructing spatial Markov processes using the information from both approximations. These correlations demonstrate why pair approximation misses basic qualitative features of the model, such as decreasing population density as a large proportion of offspring are dropped on second-nearest neighbors, and why triplet approximation is able to include them. Analytical and numerical results show that, excluding long-distance dispersal, the initial growth rate of an invading population is maximized and the equilibrium population density is also roughly maximized when the population spreads its offspring evenly over nearest and second-nearest neighboring sites. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. [The dose estimation to the population as a result of radioactive contamination of the Semipalatinsk Test area].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spiridonova, S I; Mukusheva, M K; Shubina, O A; Solomatin, V M; Epifanova, I E

    2008-01-01

    The results are presented from estimation of spatial distribution of 137Cs and 90Sr contamination densities in the areas of horses and sheep grazing within the Semipalatinsk Test Site. Dose burdens to various cohorts of the population living within the STS and consuming contaminated animal products are predicted. Doses of shepherds in the most contaminated pasture areas have been found to exceed the accepted limit (1 mSv/y). The conclusion is made about the need for further studies on the risk assessment of the STS population exposure above the accepted limits.

  12. Estimates of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population Residing in the United States: January 2008

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — This report provides estimates of the number of unauthorized immigrants residing in the United States as of January 2008 by period of entry, region and country of...

  13. Estimates of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population Residing in the United States: January 2007

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — This report provides estimates of the number of unauthorized immigrants residing in the United States as of January 2007 by period of entry, region and country of...

  14. Estimates of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population Residing in the United States: January 2009

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — This report provides estimates of the number of unauthorized immigrants residing in the United States as of January 2009 by period of entry, region and country of...

  15. Estimates of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population Residing in the United States: January 2006

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — This report provides estimates of the number of unauthorized immigrants residing in the United States as of January 2006 by period of entry, region and country of...

  16. Collective dose estimation in Portuguese population due to medical exams of diagnostic radiology and nuclear medicine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teles, Pedro; Vaz, Pedro; Paulo, Graciano; Santos, Joana; Pascoal, Ana; Lanca, Isabel; Matela, Nuno; Sousa, Patrick; Carvoeiras, Pedro; Parafita, Rui; Simaozinho, Paula

    2013-01-01

    In order to assess the exposure of the Portuguese population to ionizing radiation due to medical examinations of diagnostic radiology and nuclear medicine, a working group, consisting of 40 institutions, public and private, was created to evaluation the coletive dose in the Portuguese population in 2010. This work was conducted in collaboration with the Dose Datamed European consortium, which aims to assess the exposure of the European population to ionizing radiation due to 20 diagnostic radiology examinations most frequent in Europe (the 'TOP 20') and nuclear medicine examinations. We obtained an average value of collective dose of ≈ 1 mSv/caput, which puts Portugal in the category of countries medium to high exposure to Europe. We hope that this work can be a starting point to bridge the persistent lack of studies in the areas referred to in Portugal, and to enable the characterization periodic exposure of the Portuguese population to ionizing radiation in the context of medical applications

  17. Influence of hot rolling and high speed hydrostatic extrusion on the microstructure and mechanical properties of an ODS RAF steel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oksiuta, Z., E-mail: oksiuta@pb.edu.pl [Bialystok Technical University, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Wiejska 45c, 15-352 Bialystok (Poland); Lewandowska, M.; Kurzydlowski, K.J. [Warsaw University of Technology, Faculty of Materials Science and Engineering, Woloska 141, 02-504 Warsaw (Poland); Baluc, N. [Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne (EPFL), Centre de Recherches en Physique des Plasmas, Association Euratom-Confederation Suisse, 5232 Villigen PSI (Switzerland)

    2011-02-15

    An argon gas atomized, pre-alloyed Fe-14Cr-2W-0.3Ti (wt.%) reduced activation ferritic (RAF) steel powder was mechanically alloyed with 0.3wt.% Y{sub 2}O{sub 3} nano-particles in an attritor ball mill and consolidated by hot isostatic pressing at 1150 {sup o}C under a pressure of 200 MPa for 3 h. In the aim to improve its mechanical properties the ODS steel was then submitted to a thermo-mechanical treatment (TMT): hot rolling (HR) at 850 deg. C or high speed hydrostatic extrusion (HSHE) at 900 deg. C, followed by heat treatment (HT). Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) observations of the ODS alloys after TMT and heat treatment revealed the presence of elongated grains in the longitudinal direction, with an average width of 8 {mu}m and an average length of 75 {mu}m, and equiaxed grains, a few microns in diameter, in the transverse direction. Two populations of oxide particles were observed by TEM: large Ti-Al-O particles, up to 250 nm in diameter, usually located at the grain boundaries and small Y-Ti-O nanoclusters, about 2.5 nm in diameter, uniformly distributed in the matrix. Charpy impact tests revealed that the HSHE material exhibits a larger upper shelf energy (5.8 J) than the HR material (2.9 J). The ductile-to-brittle transition temperature of both alloys is relatively high, in the range of 55-72 deg. C. Tensile mechanical properties of both ODS alloys were found satisfactory over the full range of investigated temperatures (23-750 deg. C). The HSHE material exhibits better tensile strength and ductility than the HR material. These results indicate that HSHE can be considered as a promising TMT method for improving the mechanical properties of ODS RAF steels.

  18. Estimating the size of juvenile fish populations in southeastern coastal-plain estuaries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kjelson, M.A.

    1977-01-01

    Understanding the ecological significance of man's activities upon fishery resources requires information on the size of affected fish stocks. The objective of this paper is to provide information to evaluate and plan sampling programs designed to obtain accurate and precise estimates of fish abundance. Nursery habitats, as marsh--tidal creeks and submerged grass beds, offer the optimal conditions for estimating natural mortality rates for young-of-the-year fish in Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coast estuaries. The area-density method of abundance estimation using quantitative gears is more feasible than either mark-recapture or direct-count techniques. The blockage method provides the most accurate estimates, while encircling devices enable highly mobile species found in open water to be captured. Drop nets and lift nets allow samples to be taken in obstructed sites, but trawls and seines are the most economical gears. Replicate samples are necessary to improve the precision of density estimates, while evaluation and use of gear-catch efficiencies is feasible and required to improve the accuracy of density estimates. Coefficients of variation for replicate trawl samples range from 50 to 150 percent, while catch efficiencies for both trawls and seines for many juvenile fishes range from approximately 30 to 70 percent

  19. Uterotonic use immediately following birth: using a novel methodology to estimate population coverage in four countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricca, Jim; Dwivedi, Vikas; Varallo, John; Singh, Gajendra; Pallipamula, Suranjeen Prasad; Amade, Nazir; de Luz Vaz, Maria; Bishanga, Dustan; Plotkin, Marya; Al-Makaleh, Bushra; Suhowatsky, Stephanie; Smith, Jeffrey Michael

    2015-01-22

    Postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) is the leading cause of maternal mortality in developing countries. While incidence of PPH can be dramatically reduced by uterotonic use immediately following birth (UUIFB) in both community and facility settings, national coverage estimates are rare. Most national health systems have no indicator to track this, and community-based measurements are even more scarce. To fill this information gap, a methodology for estimating national coverage for UUIFB was developed and piloted in four settings. The rapid estimation methodology consisted of convening a group of national technical experts and using the Delphi method to come to consensus on key data elements that were applied to a simple algorithm, generating a non-precise national estimate of coverage of UUIFB. Data elements needed for the calculation were the distribution of births by location and estimates of UUIFB in each of those settings, adjusted to take account of stockout rates and potency of uterotonics. This exercise was conducted in 2013 in Mozambique, Tanzania, the state of Jharkhand in India, and Yemen. Available data showed that deliveries in public health facilities account for approximately half of births in Mozambique and Tanzania, 16% in Jharkhand and 24% of births in Yemen. Significant proportions of births occur in private facilities in Jharkhand and faith-based facilities in Tanzania. Estimated uterotonic use for facility births ranged from 70 to 100%. Uterotonics are not used routinely for PPH prevention at home births in any of the settings. National UUIFB coverage estimates of all births were 43% in Mozambique, 40% in Tanzania, 44% in Jharkhand, and 14% in Yemen. This methodology for estimating coverage of UUIFB was found to be feasible and acceptable. While the exercise produces imprecise estimates whose validity cannot be assessed objectively in the absence of a gold standard estimate, stakeholders felt they were accurate enough to be actionable. The exercise

  20. Burden of Six Healthcare-Associated Infections on European Population Health: Estimating Incidence-Based Disability-Adjusted Life Years through a Population Prevalence-Based Modelling Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandro Cassini

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Estimating the burden of healthcare-associated infections (HAIs compared to other communicable diseases is an ongoing challenge given the need for good quality data on the incidence of these infections and the involved comorbidities. Based on the methodology of the Burden of Communicable Diseases in Europe (BCoDE project and 2011-2012 data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC point prevalence survey (PPS of HAIs and antimicrobial use in European acute care hospitals, we estimated the burden of six common HAIs.The included HAIs were healthcare-associated pneumonia (HAP, healthcare-associated urinary tract infection (HA UTI, surgical site infection (SSI, healthcare-associated Clostridium difficile infection (HA CDI, healthcare-associated neonatal sepsis, and healthcare-associated primary bloodstream infection (HA primary BSI. The burden of these HAIs was measured in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs. Evidence relating to the disease progression pathway of each type of HAI was collected through systematic literature reviews, in order to estimate the risks attributable to HAIs. For each of the six HAIs, gender and age group prevalence from the ECDC PPS was converted into incidence rates by applying the Rhame and Sudderth formula. We adjusted for reduced life expectancy within the hospital population using three severity groups based on McCabe score data from the ECDC PPS. We estimated that 2,609,911 new cases of HAI occur every year in the European Union and European Economic Area (EU/EEA. The cumulative burden of the six HAIs was estimated at 501 DALYs per 100,000 general population each year in EU/EEA. HAP and HA primary BSI were associated with the highest burden and represented more than 60% of the total burden, with 169 and 145 DALYs per 100,000 total population, respectively. HA UTI, SSI, HA CDI, and HA primary BSI ranked as the third to sixth syndromes in terms of burden of disease. HAP and HA primary BSI were

  1. Burden of Six Healthcare-Associated Infections on European Population Health: Estimating Incidence-Based Disability-Adjusted Life Years through a Population Prevalence-Based Modelling Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eckmanns, Tim; Abu Sin, Muna; Ducomble, Tanja; Harder, Thomas; Sixtensson, Madlen; Velasco, Edward; Weiß, Bettina; Kramarz, Piotr; Monnet, Dominique L.; Kretzschmar, Mirjam E.; Suetens, Carl

    2016-01-01

    Background Estimating the burden of healthcare-associated infections (HAIs) compared to other communicable diseases is an ongoing challenge given the need for good quality data on the incidence of these infections and the involved comorbidities. Based on the methodology of the Burden of Communicable Diseases in Europe (BCoDE) project and 2011–2012 data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) point prevalence survey (PPS) of HAIs and antimicrobial use in European acute care hospitals, we estimated the burden of six common HAIs. Methods and Findings The included HAIs were healthcare-associated pneumonia (HAP), healthcare-associated urinary tract infection (HA UTI), surgical site infection (SSI), healthcare-associated Clostridium difficile infection (HA CDI), healthcare-associated neonatal sepsis, and healthcare-associated primary bloodstream infection (HA primary BSI). The burden of these HAIs was measured in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Evidence relating to the disease progression pathway of each type of HAI was collected through systematic literature reviews, in order to estimate the risks attributable to HAIs. For each of the six HAIs, gender and age group prevalence from the ECDC PPS was converted into incidence rates by applying the Rhame and Sudderth formula. We adjusted for reduced life expectancy within the hospital population using three severity groups based on McCabe score data from the ECDC PPS. We estimated that 2,609,911 new cases of HAI occur every year in the European Union and European Economic Area (EU/EEA). The cumulative burden of the six HAIs was estimated at 501 DALYs per 100,000 general population each year in EU/EEA. HAP and HA primary BSI were associated with the highest burden and represented more than 60% of the total burden, with 169 and 145 DALYs per 100,000 total population, respectively. HA UTI, SSI, HA CDI, and HA primary BSI ranked as the third to sixth syndromes in terms of burden of disease

  2. Quantification of deaths attributed to air pollution in Sweden using estimated population exposure to nitrogen dioxide as indicator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Forsberg, Bertil; Sjoeberg, Karin

    2005-08-01

    In the previous phase of this project a model was provided for quantifying the general population exposure to air pollution. From that work interpolated yearly mean concentrations of nitrogen dioxide were provided for the Swedish population. To be applied in the health impact assessment we selected an ecological study from Auckland, New Zealand, which reported a 13 % increase in non-accidental mortality (all ages) for 10 μg/m 3 increase in NO 2 . Based on official national data we assumed a baseline rate of 1,010 deaths per 100,000 persons and year at the population weighted mean level of approximately 10 μg NO 2 /m 3 . We then calculated the death rate and the yearly number of deaths expected at the population weighted mean exposure in each of four exposure classes above 10 μg/m 3 . Using the modelled levels of NO 2 as an indicator of air pollution levels from transportation and combustion, and calculating effects on mortality only above the yearly mean 10 μg/m 3 , we