77 FR 76411 - Security Zone; 25th Annual North American International Auto Show, Detroit River, Detroit, MI

Science.gov (United States)

2012-12-28

...-AA87 Security Zone; 25th Annual North American International Auto Show, Detroit River, Detroit, MI..., visitors, and public officials at the 25th Annual North American International Auto Show (NAIAS), which is... Purpose The 25th Annual North American International Auto Show (NAIAS) will be held at Cobo Hall in...

77 FR 2453 - Security Zone; 24th Annual North American International Auto Show, Detroit River, Detroit, MI

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-18

...-AA87 Security Zone; 24th Annual North American International Auto Show, Detroit River, Detroit, MI..., visitors, and public officials at the 24th Annual North American International Auto Show (NAIAS), which is... The 24th Annual North American International Auto Show (NAIAS) will be held at Cobo Hall in downtown...

Optimizing estimates of annual variations and trends in geocenter motion and J2 from a combination of GRACE data and geophysical models

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Yu; Riva, Riccardo; Ditmar, Pavel

2016-11-01

The focus of the study is optimizing the technique for estimating geocenter motion and variations in J2 by combining data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission with output from an Ocean Bottom Pressure model and a Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) model. First, we conduct an end-to-end numerical simulation study. We generate input time-variable gravity field observations by perturbing a synthetic Earth model with realistically simulated errors. We show that it is important to avoid large errors at short wavelengths and signal leakage from land to ocean, as well as to account for self-attraction and loading effects. Second, the optimal implementation strategy is applied to real GRACE data. We show that the estimates of annual amplitude in geocenter motion are in line with estimates from other techniques, such as satellite laser ranging (SLR) and global GPS inversion. At the same time, annual amplitudes of C10 and C11 are increased by about 50% and 20%, respectively, compared to estimates based on Swenson et al. (2008). Estimates of J2 variations are by about 15% larger than SLR results in terms of annual amplitude. Linear trend estimates are dependent on the adopted GIA model but still comparable to some SLR results.

Challenges of estimating the annual caseload of severe acute malnutrition

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Deconinck, Hedwig; Pesonen, Anaïs; Hallarou, Mahaman

2016-01-01

Introduction: Reliable prospective estimates of annual severe acute malnutrition (SAM) caseloads for treatment are needed for policy decisions and planning of quality services in the context of competing public health priorities and limited resources. This paper compares the reliability of SAM...

Estimates of annual survival probabilities for adult Florida manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris)

Science.gov (United States)

Langtimm, C.A.; O'Shea, T.J.; Pradel, R.; Beck, C.A.

1998-01-01

The population dynamics of large, long-lived mammals are particularly sensitive to changes in adult survival. Understanding factors affecting survival patterns is therefore critical for developing and testing theories of population dynamics and for developing management strategies aimed at preventing declines or extinction in such taxa. Few studies have used modern analytical approaches for analyzing variation and testing hypotheses about survival probabilities in large mammals. This paper reports a detailed analysis of annual adult survival in the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris), an endangered marine mammal, based on a mark-recapture approach. Natural and boat-inflicted scars distinctively 'marked' individual manatees that were cataloged in a computer-based photographic system. Photo-documented resightings provided 'recaptures.' Using open population models, annual adult-survival probabilities were estimated for manatees observed in winter in three areas of Florida: Blue Spring, Crystal River, and the Atlantic coast. After using goodness-of-fit tests in Program RELEASE to search for violations of the assumptions of mark-recapture analysis, survival and sighting probabilities were modeled under several different biological hypotheses with Program SURGE. Estimates of mean annual probability of sighting varied from 0.948 for Blue Spring to 0.737 for Crystal River and 0.507 for the Atlantic coast. At Crystal River and Blue Spring, annual survival probabilities were best estimated as constant over the study period at 0.96 (95% CI = 0.951-0.975 and 0.900-0.985, respectively). On the Atlantic coast, where manatees are impacted more by human activities, annual survival probabilities had a significantly lower mean estimate of 0.91 (95% CI = 0.887-0.926) and varied unpredictably over the study period. For each study area, survival did not differ between sexes and was independent of relative adult age. The high constant adult-survival probabilities estimated

Estimation of peak discharge quantiles for selected annual exceedance probabilities in northeastern Illinois

Science.gov (United States)

Over, Thomas M.; Saito, Riki J.; Veilleux, Andrea G.; Sharpe, Jennifer B.; Soong, David T.; Ishii, Audrey L.

2016-06-28

This report provides two sets of equations for estimating peak discharge quantiles at annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) of 0.50, 0.20, 0.10, 0.04, 0.02, 0.01, 0.005, and 0.002 (recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years, respectively) for watersheds in Illinois based on annual maximum peak discharge data from 117 watersheds in and near northeastern Illinois. One set of equations was developed through a temporal analysis with a two-step least squares-quantile regression technique that measures the average effect of changes in the urbanization of the watersheds used in the study. The resulting equations can be used to adjust rural peak discharge quantiles for the effect of urbanization, and in this study the equations also were used to adjust the annual maximum peak discharges from the study watersheds to 2010 urbanization conditions.The other set of equations was developed by a spatial analysis. This analysis used generalized least-squares regression to fit the peak discharge quantiles computed from the urbanization-adjusted annual maximum peak discharges from the study watersheds to drainage-basin characteristics. The peak discharge quantiles were computed by using the Expected Moments Algorithm following the removal of potentially influential low floods defined by a multiple Grubbs-Beck test. To improve the quantile estimates, regional skew coefficients were obtained from a newly developed regional skew model in which the skew increases with the urbanized land use fraction. The drainage-basin characteristics used as explanatory variables in the spatial analysis include drainage area, the fraction of developed land, the fraction of land with poorly drained soils or likely water, and the basin slope estimated as the ratio of the basin relief to basin perimeter.This report also provides the following: (1) examples to illustrate the use of the spatial and urbanization-adjustment equations for estimating peak discharge quantiles at ungaged

Estimated annual cost of arterial hypertension treatment in Brazil.

Science.gov (United States)

Dib, Murilo W; Riera, Rachel; Ferraz, Marcos B

2010-02-01

To estimate the direct annual cost of systemic arterial hypertension (SAH) treatment in Brazil's public and private health care systems, assess its economic impact on the total health care budget, and determine its proportion of the 2005 gross domestic product (GDP). A decision tree model was used to determine direct costs based on estimated use of various resources in SAH diagnosis and care, including treatment (medication and non-medication), complementary exams, doctor visits, nutritional assessments, and emergency room visits. Estimated direct annual cost of SAH treatment was approximately US$ 398.9 million for the public health care system and US$ 272.7 million for the private system, representing 0.08% of the 2005 GDP (ranging from 0.05% to 0.16%). With total health care expenses comprising about 7.6% of Brazil's GDP, this cost represented 1.11% of overall health care costs (0.62% to 2.06%)-1.43% of total expenses for the Unified Healthcare System (Sistema Unico de Saúde, SUS) (0.79% to 2.75%) and 0.83% of expenses for the private health care system (0.47% to 1.48%). Conclusion. To guarantee public or private health care based on the principles of universality and equality, with limited available resources, efforts must be focused on educating the population on prevention and treatment compliance in diseases such as SAH that require significant health resources.

Gap filling strategies and error in estimating annual soil respiration

Science.gov (United States)

Soil respiration (Rsoil) is one of the largest CO2 fluxes in the global carbon (C) cycle. Estimation of annual Rsoil requires extrapolation of survey measurements or gap-filling of automated records to produce a complete time series. While many gap-filling methodologies have been employed, there is ...

R&W Club Frederick Hosts Second Annual Car Show | Poster

Science.gov (United States)

A 1994 Ford Thunderbird, a 2006 Porsche 911-S, and a 1996 Chevy Camaro Z28 were just a few of the rides on display this summer at R&W Club Frederick’s second annual Car and Motorcycle Show. “It’s a chance to raise money for a good cause,” said Geoff Seidel, one of the organizers of the event and program director for the Coordinating Center for Clinical Trials, NCI Office of

Identifying the Correlation between Water Quality Data and LOADEST Model Behavior in Annual Sediment Load Estimations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Youn Shik Park

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Water quality samples are typically collected less frequently than flow since water quality sampling is costly. Load Estimator (LOADEST, provided by the United States Geological Survey, is used to predict water quality concentration (or load on days when flow data are measured so that the water quality data are sufficient for annual pollutant load estimation. However, there is a need to identify water quality data requirements for accurate pollutant load estimation. Measured daily sediment data were collected from 211 streams. Estimated annual sediment loads from LOADEST and subsampled data were compared to the measured annual sediment loads (true load. The means of flow for calibration data were correlated to model behavior. A regression equation was developed to compute the required mean of flow in calibration data to best calibrate the LOADEST regression model coefficients. LOADEST runs were performed to investigate the correlation between the mean flow in calibration data and model behaviors as daily water quality data were subsampled. LOADEST calibration data used sediment concentration data for flows suggested by the regression equation. Using the mean flow calibrated by the regression equation reduced errors in annual sediment load estimation from −39.7% to −10.8% compared to using all available data.

Estimating distribution parameters of annual maximum streamflows in Johor, Malaysia using TL-moments approach

Science.gov (United States)

Mat Jan, Nur Amalina; Shabri, Ani

2017-01-01

TL-moments approach has been used in an analysis to identify the best-fitting distributions to represent the annual series of maximum streamflow data over seven stations in Johor, Malaysia. The TL-moments with different trimming values are used to estimate the parameter of the selected distributions namely: Three-parameter lognormal (LN3) and Pearson Type III (P3) distribution. The main objective of this study is to derive the TL-moments ( t 1,0), t 1 = 1,2,3,4 methods for LN3 and P3 distributions. The performance of TL-moments ( t 1,0), t 1 = 1,2,3,4 was compared with L-moments through Monte Carlo simulation and streamflow data over a station in Johor, Malaysia. The absolute error is used to test the influence of TL-moments methods on estimated probability distribution functions. From the cases in this study, the results show that TL-moments with four trimmed smallest values from the conceptual sample (TL-moments [4, 0]) of LN3 distribution was the most appropriate in most of the stations of the annual maximum streamflow series in Johor, Malaysia.

Estimate of Annual Ultraviolet-A Exposures in Cars in Australia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parisi, A.V.; Kimlin, M.G.

2000-01-01

The annual solar UVA exposures in four cars were estimated by measuring the UVA irradiances in the vehicles in each of the four seasons and in the morning, noon and afternoon. For the cars with untinted windows the maximum UVA irradiances in cars do not necessarily occur at noon when the outside irradiances are at their highest. Additionally, they do not occur in summer. The range of annual UVA exposures between 9:00 and 15:00 EST is 1918 to 6177 J.cm -2 for the cars without the after-market window tint. These correspond to 5% to 17% of the ambient UVA on a horizontal plane over the same period outside the cars. The range is for the different sites in the car. For the car with the after-market window tint, the range of the annual UVA exposures was 489 to 2969 J.cm -2 or 1% to 8% of the ambient UVA. (author)

Methods to estimate annual mean spring discharge to the Snake River between Milner Dam and King Hill, Idaho

Science.gov (United States)

Kjelstrom, L.C.

1995-01-01

Many individual springs and groups of springs discharge water from volcanic rocks that form the north canyon wall of the Snake River between Milner Dam and King Hill. Previous estimates of annual mean discharge from these springs have been used to understand the hydrology of the eastern part of the Snake River Plain. Four methods that were used in previous studies or developed to estimate annual mean discharge since 1902 were (1) water-budget analysis of the Snake River; (2) correlation of water-budget estimates with discharge from 10 index springs; (3) determination of the combined discharge from individual springs or groups of springs by using annual discharge measurements of 8 springs, gaging-station records of 4 springs and 3 sites on the Malad River, and regression equations developed from 5 of the measured springs; and (4) a single regression equation that correlates gaging-station records of 2 springs with historical water-budget estimates. Comparisons made among the four methods of estimating annual mean spring discharges from 1951 to 1959 and 1963 to 1980 indicated that differences were about equivalent to a measurement error of 2 to 3 percent. The method that best demonstrates the response of annual mean spring discharge to changes in ground-water recharge and discharge is method 3, which combines the measurements and regression estimates of discharge from individual springs.

Intra-annual patterns in adult band-tailed pigeon survival estimates

Science.gov (United States)

Casazza, Michael L.; Coates, Peter S.; Overton, Cory T.; Howe, Kristy H.

2015-01-01

Context: The band-tailed pigeon (Patagioenas fasciata) is a migratory species occurring in western North America with low recruitment potential and populations that have declined an average of 2.4% per year since the 1960s. Investigations into band-tailed pigeon demographic rates date back to the early 1900s, and existing annual survival rate estimates were derived in the 1970s using band return data.

Precipitation areal-reduction factor estimation using an annual-maxima centered approach

Science.gov (United States)

Asquith, W.H.; Famiglietti, J.S.

2000-01-01

The adjustment of precipitation depth of a point storm to an effective (mean) depth over a watershed is important for characterizing rainfall-runoff relations and for cost-effective designs of hydraulic structures when design storms are considered. A design storm is the precipitation point depth having a specified duration and frequency (recurrence interval). Effective depths are often computed by multiplying point depths by areal-reduction factors (ARF). ARF range from 0 to 1, vary according to storm characteristics, such as recurrence interval; and are a function of watershed characteristics, such as watershed size, shape, and geographic location. This paper presents a new approach for estimating ARF and includes applications for the 1-day design storm in Austin, Dallas, and Houston, Texas. The approach, termed 'annual-maxima centered,' specifically considers the distribution of concurrent precipitation surrounding an annual-precipitation maxima, which is a feature not seen in other approaches. The approach does not require the prior spatial averaging of precipitation, explicit determination of spatial correlation coefficients, nor explicit definition of a representative area of a particular storm in the analysis. The annual-maxima centered approach was designed to exploit the wide availability of dense precipitation gauge data in many regions of the world. The approach produces ARF that decrease more rapidly than those from TP-29. Furthermore, the ARF from the approach decay rapidly with increasing recurrence interval of the annual-precipitation maxima. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V.The adjustment of precipitation depth of a point storm to an effective (mean) depth over a watershed is important for characterizing rainfall-runoff relations and for cost-effective designs of hydraulic structures when design storms are considered. A design storm is the precipitation point depth having a specified duration and frequency (recurrence interval). Effective depths are

Methods for estimating flow-duration and annual mean-flow statistics for ungaged streams in Oklahoma

Science.gov (United States)

Esralew, Rachel A.; Smith, S. Jerrod

2010-01-01

Flow statistics can be used to provide decision makers with surface-water information needed for activities such as water-supply permitting, flow regulation, and other water rights issues. Flow statistics could be needed at any location along a stream. Most often, streamflow statistics are needed at ungaged sites, where no flow data are available to compute the statistics. Methods are presented in this report for estimating flow-duration and annual mean-flow statistics for ungaged streams in Oklahoma. Flow statistics included the (1) annual (period of record), (2) seasonal (summer-autumn and winter-spring), and (3) 12 monthly duration statistics, including the 20th, 50th, 80th, 90th, and 95th percentile flow exceedances, and the annual mean-flow (mean of daily flows for the period of record). Flow statistics were calculated from daily streamflow information collected from 235 streamflow-gaging stations throughout Oklahoma and areas in adjacent states. A drainage-area ratio method is the preferred method for estimating flow statistics at an ungaged location that is on a stream near a gage. The method generally is reliable only if the drainage-area ratio of the two sites is between 0.5 and 1.5. Regression equations that relate flow statistics to drainage-basin characteristics were developed for the purpose of estimating selected flow-duration and annual mean-flow statistics for ungaged streams that are not near gaging stations on the same stream. Regression equations were developed from flow statistics and drainage-basin characteristics for 113 unregulated gaging stations. Separate regression equations were developed by using U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations in regions with similar drainage-basin characteristics. These equations can increase the accuracy of regression equations used for estimating flow-duration and annual mean-flow statistics at ungaged stream locations in Oklahoma. Streamflow-gaging stations were grouped by selected drainage

Proceedings of the 20. annual CanWEA conference and trade show

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2000-01-01

Wind energy is the most competitive large-scale electricity alternative to hydro-electricity and natural gas. Approximately 10,000 MW of wind energy energy may be required in order to meet demand in Canada by 2010. This annual conference provided a forum for decision-makers, industry leaders, power marketers, and regulatory administrators to discuss methods of meeting Canada's future energy supplies. Financial and industrial challenges to the growth of the wind power industry were discussed. Market drivers for wind development in Canada were reviewed, as well as the global status of the wind power industry. Technological advances in wind power were assessed, and issues related to grid integration and reliability were discussed. The conference was divided into 3 sessions: (1) global status and future prospects; (2) the Canadian challenge and opportunity; and (3) the Canadian Wind Energy Association annual general meeting. The conference included a trade show with exhibitions of new technologies related to wind power. The conference featured 31 presentations, of which 3 have been catalogued separately for inclusion in this database. refs., tabs., figs

Annual sediment flux estimates in a tidal strait using surrogate measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Ganju, N.K.; Schoellhamer, D.H.

2006-01-01

Annual suspended-sediment flux estimates through Carquinez Strait (the seaward boundary of Suisun Bay, California) are provided based on surrogate measurements for advective, dispersive, and Stokes drift flux. The surrogates are landward watershed discharge, suspended-sediment concentration at one location in the Strait, and the longitudinal salinity gradient. The first two surrogates substitute for tidally averaged discharge and velocity-weighted suspended-sediment concentration in the Strait, thereby providing advective flux estimates, while Stokes drift is estimated with suspended-sediment concentration alone. Dispersive flux is estimated using the product of longitudinal salinity gradient and the root-mean-square value of velocity-weighted suspended-sediment concentration as an added surrogate variable. Cross-sectional measurements validated the use of surrogates during the monitoring period. During high freshwater flow advective and dispersive flux were in the seaward direction, while landward dispersive flux dominated and advective flux approached zero during low freshwater flow. Stokes drift flux was consistently in the landward direction. Wetter than average years led to net export from Suisun Bay, while dry years led to net sediment import. Relatively low watershed sediment fluxes to Suisun Bay contribute to net export during the wet season, while gravitational circulation in Carquinez Strait and higher suspended-sediment concentrations in San Pablo Bay (seaward end of Carquinez Strait) are responsible for the net import of sediment during the dry season. Annual predictions of suspended-sediment fluxes, using these methods, will allow for a sediment budget for Suisun Bay, which has implications for marsh restoration and nutrient/contaminant transport. These methods also provide a general framework for estimating sediment fluxes in estuarine environments, where temporal and spatial variability of transport are large. ?? 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights

Annual survival estimation of migratory songbirds confounded by incomplete breeding site-fidelity: study designs that may help

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marshall, M. R.

2004-06-01

surrounding areas to minimize bias. Therefore, as an alternative protocol, we analyzed the data with subsets of three progressively larger areas surrounding the core. The data subsets provided four estimates of apparent survival that asymptotically approached true survival. This study design and analytical approach is likely to be logistically feasible in field settings and yields estimates of true survival unbiased (bias < 0.03 by incomplete breeding site–fidelity over a range of inter–annual territory movement patterns. The third approach we investigated used a robust design data collection and analysis approach. This approach resulted in estimates of survival that were unbiased (bias < 0.02, but were very imprecise and likely would not yield reliable estimates in field situations. The fourth approach utilized a fixed study area size, but modeled detection probability as a function of bird proximity to the study plot boundary (e.g., those birds closest to the edge are more likely to emigrate. This approach also resulted in estimates of survival that were unbiased (bias < 0.02, but because the individual covariates were normalized, the average capture probability was 0.50, and thus did not provide an accurate estimate of the true capture probability. Our results show that the core–area with surrounding resight–only can provide estimates of survival that are not biased by the effects of incomplete breeding site–fidelity.

Annual global tree cover estimated by fusing optical and SAR satellite observations

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, M.; Sexton, J. O.; Channan, S.; Townshend, J. R.

2017-12-01

Tree cover defined structurally as the proportional, vertically projected area of vegetation (including leaves, stems, branches, etc.) of woody plants above a given height affects terrestrial energy and water exchanges, photosynthesis and transpiration, net primary production, and carbon and nutrient fluxes. Tree cover provides a measurable attribute upon which forest cover may be defined. Changes in tree cover over time can be used to monitor and retrieve site-specific histories of forest disturbance, succession, and degradation. Measurements of Earth's tree cover have been produced at regional, national, and global extents. However, most representations are static, and those for which multiple time periods have been produced are neither intended nor adequate for consistent, long-term monitoring. Moreover, although a substantial proportion of change has been shown to occur at resolutions below 250 m, existing long-term, Landsat-resolution datasets are either produced as static layers or with annual, five- or ten-year temporal resolution. We have developed an algorithms to retrieve seamless and consistent, sub-hectare resolution estimates of tree-canopy from optical and radar satellite data sources (e.g., Landsat, Sentinel-2, and ALOS-PALSAR). Our approach to estimation enables assimilation of multiple data sources and produces estimates of both cover and its uncertainty at the scale of pixels. It has generated the world's first Landsat-based percent tree cover dataset in 2013. Our previous algorithms are being adapted to produce prototype percent-tree and water-cover layers globally in 2000, 2005, and 2010—as well as annually over North and South America from 2010 to 2015—from passive-optical (Landsat and Sentinel-2) and SAR measurements. Generating a global, annual dataset is beyond the scope of this support; however, North and South America represent all of the world's major biomes and so offer the complete global range of environmental sources of error and

Estimating the whole-body exposure annual dose of radiation workers of petroleum nuclear well logging

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tian Yizong; Gao Jianzheng; Liu Wenhong

2006-01-01

Objective: By imitating experiment of radioactive sources being installed, to estimate the annual whole-body exposure dose of radiation workers of petroleum nuclear determining wells; Methods: To compre the values of the theory, imitating experiment and γ individual dose monitor calculations. Results: The three values measured above tally with one anather. Conclusion: The annual whole-body exposure doses of radiation workers of petroleum nuclear determining wells are no more than 5 mSv. (authors)

Estimation of the annual flow and stock of marine debris in South Korea for management purposes.

Science.gov (United States)

Jang, Yong Chang; Lee, Jongmyoung; Hong, Sunwook; Mok, Jin Yong; Kim, Kyoung Shin; Lee, Yun Jeong; Choi, Hyun-Woo; Kang, Hongmook; Lee, Sukhui

2014-09-15

The annual flow and stock of marine debris in the Sea of Korea was estimated by summarizing previous survey results and integrating them with other relevant information to underpin the national marine debris management plan. The annual inflow of marine debris was estimated to be 91,195 tons [32,825 tons (36% of the total) from sources on land and 58,370 tons (64%) from ocean sources]. As of the end of 2012, the total stock of marine debris on all South Korean coasts (12,029 tons), the seabed (137,761 tons), and in the water column (2451 tons) was estimated to be 152,241 tons. In 2012, 42,595 tons of marine debris was collected from coasts, seabeds, and the water column. This is a very rare case study that estimated the amount of marine debris at a national level, the results of which provide essential information for the development of efficient marine debris management policies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimates of Annual Soil Loss Rates in the State of São Paulo, Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Grasiela de Oliveira Rodrigues Medeiros

Full Text Available ABSTRACT: Soil is a natural resource that has been affected by human pressures beyond its renewal capacity. For this reason, large agricultural areas that were productive have been abandoned due to soil degradation, mainly caused by the erosion process. The objective of this study was to apply the Universal Soil Loss Equation to generate more recent estimates of soil loss rates for the state of São Paulo using a database with information from medium resolution (30 m. The results showed that many areas of the state have high (critical levels of soil degradation due to the predominance of consolidated human activities, especially in growing sugarcane and pasture use. The average estimated rate of soil loss is 30 Mg ha-1 yr-1 and 59 % of the area of the state (except for water bodies and urban areas had estimated rates above 12 Mg ha-1 yr-1, considered as the average tolerance limit in the literature. The average rates of soil loss in areas with annual agricultural crops, semi-perennial agricultural crops (sugarcane, and permanent agricultural crops were 118, 78, and 38 Mg ha-1 yr-1 respectively. The state of São Paulo requires attention to conservation of soil resources, since most soils led to estimates beyond the tolerance limit.

Evaluating Annual Maximum and Partial Duration Series for Estimating Frequency of Small Magnitude Floods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fazlul Karim

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Understanding the nature of frequent floods is important for characterising channel morphology, riparian and aquatic habitat, and informing river restoration efforts. This paper presents results from an analysis on frequency estimates of low magnitude floods using the annual maximum and partial series data compared to actual flood series. Five frequency distribution models were fitted to data from 24 gauging stations in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR lagoon catchments in north-eastern Australia. Based on the goodness of fit test, Generalised Extreme Value, Generalised Pareto and Log Pearson Type 3 models were used to estimate flood frequencies across the study region. Results suggest frequency estimates based on a partial series are better, compared to an annual series, for small to medium floods, while both methods produce similar results for large floods. Although both methods converge at a higher recurrence interval, the convergence recurrence interval varies between catchments. Results also suggest frequency estimates vary slightly between two or more partial series, depending on flood threshold, and the differences are large for the catchments that experience less frequent floods. While a partial series produces better frequency estimates, it can underestimate or overestimate the frequency if the flood threshold differs largely compared to bankfull discharge. These results have significant implications in calculating the dependency of floodplain ecosystems on the frequency of flooding and their subsequent management.

Estimated average annual rate of change of CD4(+) T-cell counts in patients on combination antiretroviral therapy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mocroft, Amanda; Phillips, Andrew N; Ledergerber, Bruno

2010-01-01

BACKGROUND: Patients receiving combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) might continue treatment with a virologically failing regimen. We sought to identify annual change in CD4(+) T-cell count according to levels of viraemia in patients on cART. METHODS: A total of 111,371 CD4(+) T-cell counts...... and viral load measurements in 8,227 patients were analysed. Annual change in CD4(+) T-cell numbers was estimated using mixed models. RESULTS: After adjustment, the estimated average annual change in CD4(+) T-cell count significantly increased when viral load was cells/mm(3), 95......% confidence interval [CI] 26.6-34.3), was stable when viral load was 500-9,999 copies/ml (3.1 cells/mm(3), 95% CI -5.3-11.5) and decreased when viral load was >/=10,000 copies/ml (-14.8 cells/mm(3), 95% CI -4.5--25.1). Patients taking a boosted protease inhibitor (PI) regimen had more positive annual CD4(+) T-cell...

Annual survival rate estimate of satellite transmitter–marked eastern population greater sandhill cranes

Science.gov (United States)

Fronczak, David L.; Andersen, David E.; Hanna, Everett E.; Cooper, Thomas R.

2015-01-01

Several surveys have documented the increasing population size and geographic distribution of Eastern Population greater sandhill cranes Grus canadensis tabida since the 1960s. Sport hunting of this population of sandhill cranes started in 2012 following the provisions of the Eastern Population Sandhill Crane Management Plan. However, there are currently no published estimates of Eastern Population sandhill crane survival rate that can be used to inform harvest management. As part of two studies of Eastern Population sandhill crane migration, we deployed solar-powered global positioning system platform transmitting terminals on Eastern Population sandhill cranes (n  =  42) at key concentration areas from 2009 to 2012. We estimated an annual survival rate for Eastern Population sandhill cranes from data resulting from monitoring these cranes by using the known-fates model in the MARK program. Estimated annual survival rate for adult Eastern Population sandhill cranes was 0.950 (95% confidence interval  =  0.885–0.979) during December 2009–August 2014. All fatalities (n  =  5) occurred after spring migration in late spring and early summer. We were unable to determine cause of death for crane fatalities in our study. Our survival rate estimate will be useful when combined with other population parameters such as the population index derived from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service fall survey, harvest, and recruitment rates to assess the effects of harvest on population size and trend and evaluate the effectiveness of management strategies.

Calibration and Evaluation of Different Estimation Models of Daily Solar Radiation in Seasonally and Annual Time Steps in Shiraz Region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hamid Reza Fooladmand

2017-06-01

2006 to 2008 were used for calibrating fourteen estimated models of solar radiation in seasonally and annual time steps and the measured data of years 2009 and 2010 were used for evaluating the obtained results. The equations were used in this study divided into three groups contains: 1 The equations based on only sunshine hours. 2 The equations based on only air temperature. 3 The equations based on sunshine hours and air temperature together. On the other hand, statistical comparison must be done to select the best equation for estimating solar radiation in seasonally and annual time steps. For this purpose, in validation stage the combination of statistical equations and linear correlation was used, and then the value of mean square deviation (MSD was calculated to evaluate the different models for estimating solar radiation in mentioned time steps. Results and Discussion: The mean values of mean square deviation (MSD of fourteen models for estimating solar radiation were equal to 24.16, 20.42, 4.08 and 16.19 for spring to winter respectively, and 15.40 in annual time step. Therefore, the results showed that using the equations for autumn enjoyed high accuracy, however for other seasons had low accuracy. So, using the equations for annual time step were appropriate more than the equations for seasonally time steps. Also, the mean values of mean square deviation (MSD of the equations based on only sunshine hours, the equations based on only air temperature, and the equations based on the combination of sunshine hours and air temperature for estimating solar radiation were equal to 14.82, 17.40 and 14.88, respectively. Therefore, the results indicated that the models based on only air temperature were the worst conditions for estimating solar radiation in Shiraz region, and therefore, using the sunshine hours for estimating solar radiation is necessary. Conclusions: In this study for estimating solar radiation in seasonally and annual time steps in Shiraz region

The impact of inter-annual variability of annual cycle on long-term persistence of surface air temperature in long historical records

Science.gov (United States)

Deng, Qimin; Nian, Da; Fu, Zuntao

2018-02-01

Previous studies in the literature show that the annual cycle of surface air temperature (SAT) is changing in both amplitude and phase, and the SAT departures from the annual cycle are long-term correlated. However, the classical definition of temperature anomalies is based on the assumption that the annual cycle is constant, which contradicts the fact of changing annual cycle. How to quantify the impact of the changing annual cycle on the long-term correlation of temperature anomaly variability still remains open. In this paper, a recently developed data adaptive analysis tool, the nonlinear mode decomposition (NMD), is used to extract and remove time-varying annual cycle to reach the new defined temperature anomalies in which time-dependent amplitude of annual cycle has been considered. By means of detrended fluctuation analysis, the impact induced by inter-annual variability from the time-dependent amplitude of annual cycle has been quantified on the estimation of long-term correlation of long historical temperature anomalies in Europe. The results show that the classical climatology annual cycle is supposed to lack inter-annual fluctuation which will lead to a maximum artificial deviation centering around 600 days. This maximum artificial deviation is crucial to defining the scaling range and estimating the long-term persistence exponent accurately. Selecting different scaling range could lead to an overestimation or underestimation of the long-term persistence exponent. By using NMD method to extract the inter-annual fluctuations of annual cycle, this artificial crossover can be weakened to extend a wider scaling range with fewer uncertainties.

A sampling strategy for estimating plot average annual fluxes of chemical elements from forest soils

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brus, D.J.; Gruijter, de J.J.; Vries, de W.

2010-01-01

A sampling strategy for estimating spatially averaged annual element leaching fluxes from forest soils is presented and tested in three Dutch forest monitoring plots. In this method sampling locations and times (days) are selected by probability sampling. Sampling locations were selected by

U.S. Census Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for Selected Age Groups by Sex for the United States

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — 2010-2015. U.S. Census Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for Selected Age Groups by Sex for the United States. The estimates are based on the 2010 Census...

Radiation dose to technologists per nuclear medicine examination and estimation of annual dose.

Science.gov (United States)

Bayram, Tuncay; Yilmaz, A Hakan; Demir, Mustafa; Sonmez, Bircan

2011-03-01

Conventional diagnostic nuclear medicine applications have been continuously increasing in most nuclear medicine departments in Turkey, but to our knowledge no one has studied the doses to technologists who perform nuclear medicine procedures. Most nuclear medicine laboratories do not have separate control rooms for technologists, who are quite close to the patient during data acquisition. Technologists must therefore stay behind lead shields while performing their task if they are to reduce the radiation dose received. The aim of this study was to determine external radiation doses to technologists during nuclear medicine procedures with and without a lead shield. Another aim was to investigate the occupational annual external radiation doses to Turkish technologists. This study used a Geiger-Müller detector to measure dose rates to technologists at various distances from patients (0.25, 0.50, 1, and 2 m and behind a lead shield) and determined the average time spent by technologists at these distances. Deep-dose equivalents to technologists were obtained. The following conventional nuclear medicine procedures were considered: thyroid scintigraphy performed using (99m)Tc pertechnetate, whole-body bone scanning performed using (99m)Tc-methylene diphosphonate, myocardial perfusion scanning performed using (99m)Tc-methoxyisobutyl isonitrile, and (201)Tl (thallous chloride) and renal scanning performed using (99m)Tc-dimercaptosuccinic acid. The measured deep-dose equivalent to technologists per procedure was within the range of 0.13 ± 0.05 to 0.43 ± 0.17 μSv using a lead shield and 0.21 ± 0.07 to 1.01 ± 0.46 μSv without a lead shield. Also, the annual individual dose to a technologist performing only a particular scintigraphic procedure throughout a year was estimated. For a total of 95 clinical cases (71 patients), effective external radiation doses to technologists were found to be within the permissible levels. This study showed that a 2-mm lead shield

Estimation of annual suspended-sediment fluxes, 1931-95, and evaluation of geomorphic changes, 1950-2010, in the Arkansas River near Tulsa, Oklahoma

Science.gov (United States)

Lewis, Jason M.; Smith, S. Jerrod; Buck, Stephanie D.; Strong, Scott A.

2011-01-01

An understanding of fluvial sediment transport and changing channel morphology can assist planners in making responsible decisions with future riverine development or restoration projects. Sediment rating curves can serve as simple models and can provide predictive tools to estimate annual sediment fluxes. Sediment flux models can aid in the design of river projects by providing insight to past and potential future sediment fluxes. Historical U.S. Geological Survey suspended-sediment and discharge data were evaluated to estimate annual suspended-sediment fluxes for two stations on the Arkansas River located downstream from Keystone Dam in Tulsa County. Annual suspended-sediment fluxes were estimated from 1931-95 for the Arkansas River at Tulsa streamflow-gaging station (07164500) and from 1973-82 for the Arkansas River near Haskell streamflow-gaging station (07165570). The annual flow-weighted suspended-sediment concentration decreased from 1,970 milligrams per liter to 350 milligrams per liter after the completion of Keystone Dam at the Tulsa station. The streambed elevation at the Arkansas River at Tulsa station has changed less than 1 foot from 1970 to 2005, but the thalweg has shifted from a location near the right bank to a position near the left bank. There was little change in the position of most of the banks of the Arkansas River channel from 1950 to 2009. The most substantial change evident from visual inspection of aerial photographs was an apparent decrease in sediment storage in the form of mid-channel and meander bars. The Arkansas River channel between Keystone Dam and the Tulsa-Wagoner County line showed a narrowing and lengthening (increase in sinuosity) over the transition period 1950-77 followed by a steady widening and shortening of the river channel (decrease in sinuosity) during the post-dam (Keystone) periods 1977-85, 1985-2003, and 2003-10.

Simulation of annual electric lighting demand using various occupancy profiles

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Iversen, Anne; Andersen, Philip Hvidthøft Delff; Svendsen, Svend

2013-01-01

This paper describes an investigation of the effect on electric lighting demand of applying occupancy models of various resolution to climate-based daylight modelling. The lighting demand was evaluated for a building zone with the occupant always present, with occupancy corresponding to absence...... factors, based on an estimated annual mean occupancy, based on estimated 1-hour mean occupancy, and based on 2-min occupancy intervals. The results showed little difference in the annual electric lighting demand when the same occupancy profile was used every day, as opposed to when profiles were used...... where occupancy varied every day. Furthermore, the results showed that annual electric lighting demand was evaluated slightly conservatively when a mean absence factor was applied as opposed to using dynamic occupancy profiles....

Use of Annual Phosphorus Loss Estimator (APLE) Model to Evaluate a Phosphorus Index.

Science.gov (United States)

Fiorellino, Nicole M; McGrath, Joshua M; Vadas, Peter A; Bolster, Carl H; Coale, Frank J

2017-11-01

The Phosphorus (P) Index was developed to provide a relative ranking of agricultural fields according to their potential for P loss to surface water. Recent efforts have focused on updating and evaluating P Indices against measured or modeled P loss data to ensure agreement in magnitude and direction. Following a recently published method, we modified the Maryland P Site Index (MD-PSI) from a multiplicative to a component index structure and evaluated the MD-PSI outputs against P loss data estimated by the Annual P Loss Estimator (APLE) model, a validated, field-scale, annual P loss model. We created a theoretical dataset of fields to represent Maryland conditions and scenarios and created an empirical dataset of soil samples and management characteristics from across the state. Through the evaluation process, we modified a number of variables within the MD-PSI and calculated weighting coefficients for each P loss component. We have demonstrated that our methods can be used to modify a P Index and increase correlation between P Index output and modeled P loss data. The methods presented here can be easily applied in other states where there is motivation to update an existing P Index. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Incorporation of Finite Element Analysis into Annual Energy Loss Estimation for Permanent Magnet Wind Turbine Generators

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Henriksen, Matthew Lee; Jensen, Bogi Bech

2013-01-01

Several methods of estimating the annual energy losses for wind turbine generators are investigated in this paper. Utilizing a high amount of transient simulations with motion is first demonstrated. Usage of a space-time transformation for prediction of iron losses is also explored. The methods, ...

Methods for estimating annual exceedance-probability discharges and largest recorded floods for unregulated streams in rural Missouri.

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

Regression analysis techniques were used to develop a : set of equations for rural ungaged stream sites for estimating : discharges with 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent : annual exceedance probabilities, which are equivalent to : ann...

Investigating organic matter in Fanno Creek, Oregon, Part 1 of 3: estimating annual foliar biomass for a deciduous-dominant urban riparian corridor

Science.gov (United States)

Sobieszczyk, Steven; Keith, Mackenzie K.; Rounds, Stewart A.; Goldman, Jami H.

2014-01-01

For this study, we explored the amount, type, and distribution of foliar biomass that is deposited annually as leaf litter to Fanno Creek and its floodplain in Portland, Oregon, USA. Organic matter is a significant contributor to the decreased dissolved oxygen concentrations observed in Fanno Creek each year and leaf litter is amongst the largest sources of organic matter to the stream channel and floodplain. Using a combination of field measurements and light detection and ranging (LiDAR) point cloud data, the annual foliar biomass was estimated for 13 stream reaches along the creek. Biomass estimates were divided into two sets: (1) the annual foliage available from the entire floodplain overstory canopy, and (2) the annual foliage overhanging the stream, which likely contributes leaf litter directly to the creek each year. Based on these computations, an estimated 991 (±22%) metric tons (tonnes, t) of foliar biomass is produced annually above the floodplain, with about 136 t (±24%) of that foliage falling directly into Fanno Creek. The distribution of foliar biomass varies by reach, with between 150 and 640 t/km2 produced along the floodplain and between 400 and 1100 t/km2 available over the channel. Biomass estimates vary by reach based primarily on the density of tree cover, with forest-dominant reaches containing more mature deciduous trees with broader tree canopies than either wetland or urban-dominant reaches, thus supplying more organic material to the creek. By quantifying the foliar biomass along Fanno Creek we have provided a reach-scale assessment of terrestrial organic matter loading, thereby providing land managers useful information for planning future restoration efforts.

Comparison of calculation methods for estimating annual carbon stock change in German forests under forest management in the German greenhouse gas inventory.

Science.gov (United States)

Röhling, Steffi; Dunger, Karsten; Kändler, Gerald; Klatt, Susann; Riedel, Thomas; Stümer, Wolfgang; Brötz, Johannes

2016-12-01

The German greenhouse gas inventory in the land use change sector strongly depends on national forest inventory data. As these data were collected periodically 1987, 2002, 2008 and 2012, the time series on emissions show several "jumps" due to biomass stock change, especially between 2001 and 2002 and between 2007 and 2008 while within the periods the emissions seem to be constant due to the application of periodical average emission factors. This does not reflect inter-annual variability in the time series, which would be assumed as the drivers for the carbon stock changes fluctuate between the years. Therefore additional data, which is available on annual basis, should be introduced into the calculations of the emissions inventories in order to get more plausible time series. This article explores the possibility of introducing an annual rather than periodical approach to calculating emission factors with the given data and thus smoothing the trajectory of time series for emissions from forest biomass. Two approaches are introduced to estimate annual changes derived from periodic data: the so-called logging factor method and the growth factor method. The logging factor method incorporates annual logging data to project annual values from periodic values. This is less complex to implement than the growth factor method, which additionally adds growth data into the calculations. Calculation of the input variables is based on sound statistical methodologies and periodically collected data that cannot be altered. Thus a discontinuous trajectory of the emissions over time remains, even after the adjustments. It is intended to adopt this approach in the German greenhouse gas reporting in order to meet the request for annually adjusted values.

Development of an Estimating Procedure for the Annual PLAN Process - with Special Emphasis on the Estimating Group

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lichtenberg, Steen

2003-01-01

This research study deals with the PLAN 2000 procedure. This complex annual estimating procedure is based on the Swedish law on financing, 1992:1537. It requires the Swedish Nuclear Power inspectorate, SKI, to submit to the Government a fully supported annual proposal for the following year's unit fee for nuclear generated electricity to be paid by the owners of the Swedish nuclear power plants. The function of this Fund, KAF, is to finance the future Swedish decommissioning programme. The underlying reason for the study is current criticism of the existing procedure, not least of the composition and working conditions of the analysis group. The purpose of the study is to improve the procedure. The aim is (1) to maximise the realism and neutrality of the necessary estimates in order to allow the KAF Fund to grow steadily at the current rate to the desired target size, allowing it to pay all relevant costs associated with this large decommissioning programme; (2) to do this with a controlled degree of safety; (3) to improve the transparency of the whole procedure in order to avoid any distrust of the procedure and its results. The scope covers all technical and statistical issues; and to some degree also the directly related organisational aspects, notably in respect of the present law and its administration. However, some details are dealt with which seem contrary to the aim of the law. Since 1996, SKI has delegated to the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., SKB, the task of performing the basic part of the necessary annual estimating procedure. SKI has then evaluated and supplemented the base estimate before the drafting of the final proposals for the Government and the Board of the Fund, KAFS. Some basic requirements are crucial to the quality of the result of the study: (1) full identification of all potential sources of major uncertainty and the subsequent correct handling of these, (2) balanced and unbiased quantitative evaluation of uncertain

Randomization of grab-sampling strategies for estimating the annual exposure of U miners to Rn daughters.

Science.gov (United States)

Borak, T B

1986-04-01

Periodic grab sampling in combination with time-of-occupancy surveys has been the accepted procedure for estimating the annual exposure of underground U miners to Rn daughters. Temporal variations in the concentration of potential alpha energy in the mine generate uncertainties in this process. A system to randomize the selection of locations for measurement is described which can reduce uncertainties and eliminate systematic biases in the data. In general, a sample frequency of 50 measurements per year is sufficient to satisfy the criteria that the annual exposure be determined in working level months to within +/- 50% of the true value with a 95% level of confidence. Suggestions for implementing this randomization scheme are presented.

The Regional Differences of Gpp Estimation by Solar Induced Fluorescence

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, X.; Lu, S.

2018-04-01

Estimating gross primary productivity (GPP) at large spatial scales is important for studying the global carbon cycle and global climate change. In this study, the relationship between solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) and GPP is analysed in different levels of annual average temperature and annual total precipitation respectively using simple linear regression analysis. The results showed high correlation between SIF and GPP, when the area satisfied annual average temperature in the range of -5 °C to 15 °C and the annual total precipitation is higher than 200 mm. These results can provide a basis for future estimation of GPP research.

THE REGIONAL DIFFERENCES OF GPP ESTIMATION BY SOLAR INDUCED FLUORESCENCE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

X. Wang

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Estimating gross primary productivity (GPP at large spatial scales is important for studying the global carbon cycle and global climate change. In this study, the relationship between solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF and GPP is analysed in different levels of annual average temperature and annual total precipitation respectively using simple linear regression analysis. The results showed high correlation between SIF and GPP, when the area satisfied annual average temperature in the range of −5 °C to 15 °C and the annual total precipitation is higher than 200 mm. These results can provide a basis for future estimation of GPP research.

Soil respiration at mean annual temperature predicts annual total across vegetation types and biomes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Bahn

2010-07-01

Full Text Available Soil respiration (SR constitutes the largest flux of CO₂ from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere. However, there still exist considerable uncertainties as to its actual magnitude, as well as its spatial and interannual variability. Based on a reanalysis and synthesis of 80 site-years for 57 forests, plantations, savannas, shrublands and grasslands from boreal to tropical climates we present evidence that total annual SR is closely related to SR at mean annual soil temperature (SR_MAT, irrespective of the type of ecosystem and biome. This is theoretically expected for non water-limited ecosystems within most of the globally occurring range of annual temperature variability and sensitivity (Q₁₀. We further show that for seasonally dry sites where annual precipitation (P is lower than potential evapotranspiration (PET, annual SR can be predicted from wet season SR_MAT corrected for a factor related to P/PET. Our finding indicates that it can be sufficient to measure SR_MAT for obtaining a well constrained estimate of its annual total. This should substantially increase our capacity for assessing the spatial distribution of soil CO₂ emissions across ecosystems, landscapes and regions, and thereby contribute to improving the spatial resolution of a major component of the global carbon cycle.

Annual Gross Primary Production from Vegetation Indices: A Theoretically Sound Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

María Amparo Gilabert

2017-02-01

Full Text Available A linear relationship between the annual gross primary production (GPP and a PAR-weighted vegetation index is theoretically derived from the Monteith equation. A semi-empirical model is then proposed to estimate the annual GPP from commonly available vegetation indices images and a representative PAR, which does not require actual meteorological data. A cross validation procedure is used to calibrate and validate the model predictions against reference data. As the calibration/validation process depends on the reference GPP product, the higher the quality of the reference GPP, the better the performance of the semi-empirical model. The annual GPP has been estimated at 1-km scale from MODIS NDVI and EVI images for eight years. Two reference data sets have been used: an optimized GPP product for the study area previously obtained and the MOD17A3 product. Different statistics show a good agreement between the estimates and the reference GPP data, with correlation coefficient around 0.9 and relative RMSE around 20%. The annual GPP is overestimated in semiarid areas and slightly underestimated in dense forest areas. With the above limitations, the model provides an excellent compromise between simplicity and accuracy for the calculation of long time series of annual GPP.

Evaluation of soil-plant transfer factors of iodine. Estimation of annual ingestion for iodine from the diet

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saas, Arsene.

1980-11-01

The author presents the iodine middle contents of the soils and vegetables. A synthesis on the iodine evolution in the soils and vegetables allows to conclude that the vegetable absorption of this isotope is correlated with the isotopiquely exchangeable iodine of the soil. The soil-plant transfer-factors are calculated for the vegetables, cereals, fruits from the stable iodine quantitative analysis. The annual iodine ingestion has been estimated from the dietary of the European Communites areas. This one is a little different of the quantity estimated by CRESTA-LACOURLY-R 2979, yet the contribution by consummation unity is different [fr

Estimating inter-annual variability in winter wheat sowing dates from satellite time series in Camargue, France

Science.gov (United States)

Manfron, Giacinto; Delmotte, Sylvestre; Busetto, Lorenzo; Hossard, Laure; Ranghetti, Luigi; Brivio, Pietro Alessandro; Boschetti, Mirco

2017-05-01

Crop simulation models are commonly used to forecast the performance of cropping systems under different hypotheses of change. Their use on a regional scale is generally constrained, however, by a lack of information on the spatial and temporal variability of environment-related input variables (e.g., soil) and agricultural practices (e.g., sowing dates) that influence crop yields. Satellite remote sensing data can shed light on such variability by providing timely information on crop dynamics and conditions over large areas. This paper proposes a method for analyzing time series of MODIS satellite data in order to estimate the inter-annual variability of winter wheat sowing dates. A rule-based method was developed to automatically identify a reliable sample of winter wheat field time series, and to infer the corresponding sowing dates. The method was designed for a case study in the Camargue region (France), where winter wheat is characterized by vernalization, as in other temperate regions. The detection criteria were chosen on the grounds of agronomic expertise and by analyzing high-confidence time-series vegetation index profiles for winter wheat. This automatic method identified the target crop on more than 56% (four-year average) of the cultivated areas, with low commission errors (11%). It also captured the seasonal variability in sowing dates with errors of ±8 and ±16 days in 46% and 66% of cases, respectively. Extending the analysis to the years 2002-2012 showed that sowing in the Camargue was usually done on or around November 1st (±4 days). Comparing inter-annual sowing date variability with the main local agro-climatic drivers showed that the type of preceding crop and the weather conditions during the summer season before the wheat sowing had a prominent role in influencing winter wheat sowing dates.

7 CFR 1435.301 - Annual estimates and quarterly re-estimates.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... CORPORATION, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE LOANS, PURCHASES, AND OTHER OPERATIONS SUGAR PROGRAM Flexible Marketing..., estimates, and re-estimates in this subpart will use available USDA statistics and estimates of production, consumption, and stocks, taking into account, where appropriate, data supplied in reports submitted pursuant...

Comparisons of estimates of annual exceedance-probability discharges for small drainage basins in Iowa, based on data through water year 2013.

Science.gov (United States)

2015-01-01

Traditionally, the Iowa Department of Transportation : has used the Iowa Runoff Chart and single-variable regional-regression equations (RREs) from a U.S. Geological Survey : report (published in 1987) as the primary methods to estimate : annual exce...

Estimating the annual risk of HIV transmission within HIV sero-discordant couples in sub-Saharan Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Awad, Susanne F; Chemaitelly, Hiam; Abu-Raddad, Laith J

2018-01-01

To estimate the annual risk of HIV transmission (ϕ) within HIV sero-discordant couples in 23 countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), by utilizing newly available national population-based data and accounting for factors known to potentially affect this estimation. We used a recently developed pair-based mathematical model that accommodates for HIV-dynamics temporal variation, sexual risk-behavior heterogeneity, and antiretroviral therapy (ART) scale-up. Estimated country-specific ϕ (in absence of ART) ranged between 4.2% (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 1.9%-6.3%) and 47.4% (95% UI: 37.2%-69.0%) per person-year (ppy), with a median of 12.4%. ϕ was strongly associated with HIV prevalence, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.92, and was larger in high- versus low-HIV-prevalence countries. ϕ increased by 1.31% (95% confidence interval: 1.00%-1.55%) ppy for every 1% increase in HIV prevalence. ϕ estimates were similar to earlier estimates, and suggested considerable heterogeneity in HIV infectiousness across SSA. This heterogeneity may explain, partly, the differences in epidemic scales. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Estimation of evapotranspiration in the Mu Us Sandland of China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Liu

2010-03-01

Full Text Available Evapotranspiration (ET was estimated from 1981–2005 over Wushen County located in the Mu Us Sandland, China, by applying the Advection-Aridity model, which is based on the complementary relationship hypothesis. We used National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS, and meteorological data. Our results show that the estimated daily ET was about 4.5% higher than measurements using an Eddy Covariance (EC system after forcing energy balance closure over an alfalfa field from 22 July 2004 to 23 August 2004. At a regional scale, the estimated monthly ET was about 8.7% lower than measurements using the EC system after forcing energy balance closure over an alfalfa field in August 2004. These results were about 3.0% higher than ET measurements by microlysimeter over sand dunes during June 1988. From 1981 to 2005, the average annual ET and precipitation levels were 287 mm and 336 mm, respectively, in Wushen County. The average annual ET varied from 230 mm in western parts of Wushen County to 350 mm in eastern parts of the county. Both inter-annual and seasonal variations in ET were substantial in Wushen County. The annual ET was 200–400 mm from 1981–2005, and the seasonal pattern of ET showed a single peak distribution. The cumulative ET during the June–September 2004 period was 250 mm, which was 87% of the total annual ET. The annual ET, precipitation, and the maximum Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI_max showed positive correlations temporally and spatially.

Evaluation of precipitation estimates over CONUS derived from satellite, radar, and rain gauge data sets at daily to annual scales (2002-2012)

Science.gov (United States)

Prat, O. P.; Nelson, B. R.

2015-04-01

We use a suite of quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) derived from satellite, radar, and surface observations to derive precipitation characteristics over the contiguous United States (CONUS) for the period 2002-2012. This comparison effort includes satellite multi-sensor data sets (bias-adjusted TMPA 3B42, near-real-time 3B42RT), radar estimates (NCEP Stage IV), and rain gauge observations. Remotely sensed precipitation data sets are compared with surface observations from the Global Historical Climatology Network-Daily (GHCN-D) and from the PRISM (Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model). The comparisons are performed at the annual, seasonal, and daily scales over the River Forecast Centers (RFCs) for CONUS. Annual average rain rates present a satisfying agreement with GHCN-D for all products over CONUS (±6%). However, differences at the RFC are more important in particular for near-real-time 3B42RT precipitation estimates (-33 to +49%). At annual and seasonal scales, the bias-adjusted 3B42 presented important improvement when compared to its near-real-time counterpart 3B42RT. However, large biases remained for 3B42 over the western USA for higher average accumulation (≥ 5 mm day-1) with respect to GHCN-D surface observations. At the daily scale, 3B42RT performed poorly in capturing extreme daily precipitation (> 4 in. day-1) over the Pacific Northwest. Furthermore, the conditional analysis and a contingency analysis conducted illustrated the challenge in retrieving extreme precipitation from remote sensing estimates.

Global Annual Final AC Yield Comparison between HCPV and c-Si PV

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Juan Pablo Ferrer-Rodríguez

2015-01-01

Full Text Available A worldwide comparison of the annual yield between conventional c-Si photovoltaic (PV technology and high concentrated photovoltaic (HCPV technology is presented. The idea of this paper is to find the most appropriate locations for HCPV systems in terms of the annual energy produced when comparing to fixed tilt PV systems and two-axis oriented PY systems. For estimating the annual energy generation, the method of the Performance Ratio is used. For some locations with high annual direct normal irradiation values, which are distributed around the world, HCPV systems are found to be more advantageous than fixed tilt PV systems. World maps showing this comparison are presented.

Estimating Loess Plateau Average Annual Precipitation with Multiple Linear Regression Kriging and Geographically Weighted Regression Kriging

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qiutong Jin

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Estimating the spatial distribution of precipitation is an important and challenging task in hydrology, climatology, ecology, and environmental science. In order to generate a highly accurate distribution map of average annual precipitation for the Loess Plateau in China, multiple linear regression Kriging (MLRK and geographically weighted regression Kriging (GWRK methods were employed using precipitation data from the period 1980–2010 from 435 meteorological stations. The predictors in regression Kriging were selected by stepwise regression analysis from many auxiliary environmental factors, such as elevation (DEM, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI, solar radiation, slope, and aspect. All predictor distribution maps had a 500 m spatial resolution. Validation precipitation data from 130 hydrometeorological stations were used to assess the prediction accuracies of the MLRK and GWRK approaches. Results showed that both prediction maps with a 500 m spatial resolution interpolated by MLRK and GWRK had a high accuracy and captured detailed spatial distribution data; however, MLRK produced a lower prediction error and a higher variance explanation than GWRK, although the differences were small, in contrast to conclusions from similar studies.

Comparisons of estimates of annual exceedance-probability discharges for small drainage basins in Iowa, based on data through water year 2013 : [summary].

Science.gov (United States)

2015-01-01

Traditionally, the Iowa DOT has used the Iowa Runoff Chart and single-variable regional regression equations (RREs) from a USGS report : (published in 1987) as the primary methods to estimate annual exceedance-probability discharge : (AEPD) for small...

Estimation of annual effective dose from 226Ra and 228Ra due to consumption of foodstuffs by inhabitants of Ramsar city, Iran

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Asefi, M.; Fathivand, A. A.; Amidi, J.

2005-01-01

226 Ra and 228 Ra contents in foodstuffs of Ramsar which is a coastal city in the northern part of lran were determined by gamma spectrometry. Measurement results together with food consumption rates were used to estimate annual effective dose from 226 Ra and 228 Ra, due to consumption of food stuffs by inhabitants of Ramsar city. Materials and methods: a total of 33 samples from 11 different foodstuffs including root vegetables (beetroot), leafy vegetables (lettuce, parsley and spinach) and tea, meat, chicken, pea, broad bean, rice, and cheese were purchased from markets of Ramsar city and were analyzed for their 226 Ra and 228 Ra concentration. 1-8 kg of fresh weight sample was placed in Marinnelli beaker and sealed. The measurement of natural radioactivity levels as performed by gamma-spectrometry system, using a high purity germanium detector with 40% relative efficiency. Results: The highest concentrations of 226 Ra and 228 Ra were determined in tea samples with 1570 and 1140 mBq/kg, respectively, and the lowest concentration of 226 Ra was in pea, cheese, chicken, broad bean, and beetroot. Conclusion:The maximum estimated annual effective dose from 226 Ra and 228 Ra due to consumption, foodstuffs were determined to be 19.22 and 0.71 mSv from rice and meat samples respectively, where as, minimum estimated annual effective dose for 226 Ra was 0.017, 0.018 and 0.019 mSv from beetroot, cheese and pea samples respectively

Is annual recharge coefficient a valid concept in arid and semi-arid regions?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Cheng

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Deep soil recharge (DSR (at depth greater than 200 cm is an important part of water circulation in arid and semi-arid regions. Quantitative monitoring of DSR is of great importance to assess water resources and to study water balance in arid and semi-arid regions. This study used a typical bare land on the eastern margin of Mu Us Sandy Land in the Ordos Basin of China as an example to illustrate a new lysimeter method of measuring DSR to examine if the annual recharge coefficient is valid or not in the study site, where the annual recharge efficient is the ratio of annual DSR over annual total precipitation. Positioning monitoring was done on precipitation and DSR measurements underneath mobile sand dunes from 2013 to 2015 in the study area. Results showed that use of an annual recharge coefficient for estimating DSR in bare sand land in arid and semi-arid regions is questionable and could lead to considerable errors. It appeared that DSR in those regions was influenced by precipitation pattern and was closely correlated with spontaneous strong precipitation events (with precipitation greater than 10 mm other than the total precipitation. This study showed that as much as 42 % of precipitation in a single strong precipitation event can be transformed into DSR. During the observation period, the maximum annual DSR could make up 24.33 % of the annual precipitation. This study provided a reliable method of estimating DSR in sandy areas of arid and semi-arid regions, which is valuable for managing groundwater resources and ecological restoration in those regions. It also provided strong evidence that the annual recharge coefficient was invalid for calculating DSR in arid and semi-arid regions. This study shows that DSR is closely related to the strong precipitation events, rather than to the average annual precipitation, as well as the precipitation patterns.

Annual Estimates of Water-Budget Components Based on Hydrograph Separation and PRISM Precipitation for Gaged Basins in the Appalachian Plateaus Region, 1900-2011

Data.gov (United States)

Department of the Interior — As part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Groundwater Resources Program study of the Appalachian Plateaus aquifers, estimates of annual water-budget components were...

Parameterization of vertical chlorophyll a in the Arctic Ocean: impact of the subsurface chlorophyll maximum on regional, seasonal, and annual primary production estimates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Ardyna

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Predicting water-column phytoplankton biomass from near-surface measurements is a common approach in biological oceanography, particularly since the advent of satellite remote sensing of ocean color (OC. In the Arctic Ocean, deep subsurface chlorophyll maxima (SCMs that significantly contribute to primary production (PP are often observed. These are neither detected by ocean color sensors nor accounted for in the primary production models applied to the Arctic Ocean. Here, we assemble a large database of pan-Arctic observations (i.e., 5206 stations and develop an empirical model to estimate vertical chlorophyll a (Chl a according to (1 the shelf–offshore gradient delimited by the 50 m isobath, (2 seasonal variability along pre-bloom, post-bloom, and winter periods, and (3 regional differences across ten sub-Arctic and Arctic seas. Our detailed analysis of the dataset shows that, for the pre-bloom and winter periods, as well as for high surface Chl a concentration (Chl asurf; 0.7–30 mg m−3 throughout the open water period, the Chl a maximum is mainly located at or near the surface. Deep SCMs occur chiefly during the post-bloom period when Chl asurf is low (0–0.5 mg m−3. By applying our empirical model to annual Chl asurf time series, instead of the conventional method assuming vertically homogenous Chl a, we produce novel pan-Arctic PP estimates and associated uncertainties. Our results show that vertical variations in Chl a have a limited impact on annual depth-integrated PP. Small overestimates found when SCMs are shallow (i.e., pre-bloom, post-bloom > 0.7 mg m−3, and the winter period somehow compensate for the underestimates found when SCMs are deep (i.e., post-bloom −3. SCMs are, however, important seasonal features with a substantial impact on depth-integrated PP estimates, especially when surface nitrate is exhausted in the Arctic Ocean and where highly stratified and oligotrophic conditions prevail.

An analysis of annual maximum streamflows in Terengganu, Malaysia using TL-moments approach

Science.gov (United States)

Ahmad, Ummi Nadiah; Shabri, Ani; Zakaria, Zahrahtul Amani

2013-02-01

TL-moments approach has been used in an analysis to determine the best-fitting distributions to represent the annual series of maximum streamflow data over 12 stations in Terengganu, Malaysia. The TL-moments with different trimming values are used to estimate the parameter of the selected distributions namely: generalized pareto (GPA), generalized logistic, and generalized extreme value distribution. The influence of TL-moments on estimated probability distribution functions are examined by evaluating the relative root mean square error and relative bias of quantile estimates through Monte Carlo simulations. The boxplot is used to show the location of the median and the dispersion of the data, which helps in reaching the decisive conclusions. For most of the cases, the results show that TL-moments with one smallest value was trimmed from the conceptual sample (TL-moments (1,0)), of GPA distribution was the most appropriate in majority of the stations for describing the annual maximum streamflow series in Terengganu, Malaysia.

Using Annual Data to Estimate the Public Health Impact of Extreme Temperatures.

Science.gov (United States)

Goggins, William B; Yang, Chunyuh; Hokama, Tomiko; Law, Lewis S K; Chan, Emily Y Y

2015-07-01

Short-term associations between both hot and cold ambient temperatures and higher mortality have been found worldwide. Few studies have examined these associations on longer time scales. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) were calculated for 1976-2012 for Hong Kong SAR, People's Republic of China, defining "annual" time periods in 2 ways: from May through April of the following year and from November through October. Annual frequency and severity of extreme temperatures were summarized by using a degree-days approach with extreme heat expressed as annual degree-days >29.3°C and cold as annual degree-days ASMR, with adjustment for long-term trends. Increases of 10 hot or 200 cold degree-days in an annual period, the approximate interquartile ranges for these variables, were significantly (all P's ≤ 0.011) associated with 1.9% or 3.1% increases, respectively, in the annual ASMR for the May-April analyses and with 2.2% or 2.8% increases, respectively, in the November-October analyses. Associations were stronger for noncancer and elderly mortality. Mortality increases associated with extreme temperature are not simply due to short-term forward displacement of deaths that would have occurred anyway within a few weeks. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Trend Change Detection in NDVI Time Series: Effects of Inter-Annual Variability and Methodology

Science.gov (United States)

Forkel, Matthias; Carvalhais, Nuno; Verbesselt, Jan; Mahecha, Miguel D.; Neigh, Christopher S.R.; Reichstein, Markus

2013-01-01

Changing trends in ecosystem productivity can be quantified using satellite observations of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). However, the estimation of trends from NDVI time series differs substantially depending on analyzed satellite dataset, the corresponding spatiotemporal resolution, and the applied statistical method. Here we compare the performance of a wide range of trend estimation methods and demonstrate that performance decreases with increasing inter-annual variability in the NDVI time series. Trend slope estimates based on annual aggregated time series or based on a seasonal-trend model show better performances than methods that remove the seasonal cycle of the time series. A breakpoint detection analysis reveals that an overestimation of breakpoints in NDVI trends can result in wrong or even opposite trend estimates. Based on our results, we give practical recommendations for the application of trend methods on long-term NDVI time series. Particularly, we apply and compare different methods on NDVI time series in Alaska, where both greening and browning trends have been previously observed. Here, the multi-method uncertainty of NDVI trends is quantified through the application of the different trend estimation methods. Our results indicate that greening NDVI trends in Alaska are more spatially and temporally prevalent than browning trends. We also show that detected breakpoints in NDVI trends tend to coincide with large fires. Overall, our analyses demonstrate that seasonal trend methods need to be improved against inter-annual variability to quantify changing trends in ecosystem productivity with higher accuracy.

A Web-Based Model to Estimate the Impact of Best Management Practices

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Youn Shik Park

2014-03-01

Full Text Available The Spreadsheet Tool for the Estimation of Pollutant Load (STEPL can be used for Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL processes, since the model is capable of simulating the impacts of various best management practices (BMPs and low impact development (LID practices. The model computes average annual direct runoff using the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN method with average rainfall per event, which is not a typical use of the SCS-CN method. Five SCS-CN-based approaches to compute average annual direct runoff were investigated to explore estimated differences in average annual direct runoff computations using daily precipitation data collected from the National Climate Data Center and generated by the CLIGEN model for twelve stations in Indiana. Compared to the average annual direct runoff computed for the typical use of the SCS-CN method, the approaches to estimate average annual direct runoff within EPA STEPL showed large differences. A web-based model (STEPL WEB was developed with a corrected approach to estimate average annual direct runoff. Moreover, the model was integrated with the Web-based Load Duration Curve Tool, which identifies the least cost BMPs for each land use and optimizes BMP selection to identify the most cost-effective BMP implementations. The integrated tools provide an easy to use approach for performing TMDL analysis and identifying cost-effective approaches for controlling nonpoint source pollution.

Do agrometeorological data improve optical satellite-based estimations of the herbaceous yield in Sahelian semi-arid ecosystems?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Diouf, Abdoul Aziz; Hiernaux, Pierre; Brandt, Martin Stefan

2016-01-01

evapotranspiration satellite gridded data to estimate the annual herbaceous yield in the semi-arid areas of Senegal. It showed that a machine-learning model combining FAPAR seasonal metrics with various agrometeorological data provided better estimations of the in situ annual herbaceous yield (R2 = 0.69; RMSE = 483...... kg·DM/ha) than models based exclusively on FAPAR metrics (R2 = 0.63; RMSE = 550 kg·DM/ha) or agrometeorological variables (R2 = 0.55; RMSE = 585 kg·DM/ha). All the models provided reasonable outputs and showed a decrease in the mean annual yield with increasing latitude, together with an increase...

ESTIMATING ANNUAL SOIL LOSS BY WATER EROSION IN THE MIDDLE PRUT PLAIN, REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

TUDOR CASTRAVEŢ

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Estimating annual soil loss by water erosion in the middle Prut Plain, Republic of Moldova. Modern technology has provided efficient tools such as advanced models and Geographic Information Systems to facilitate decision making for environmental management. Studies at this subject are available in literature, ranging from those that use a simple model such as USLE to others of a more sophisticated nature. In this study the model selected (modified Universal Soil Loss Equation – USLE and the case itself is kept simple due to significant limitations in data on land processes. An effective investigation of soil loss by using GIS – USLE integration requires spatially distributed data on several parameters describing the terrain surface. Such parameters include topography, rainfall characteristics, soil types, vegetation, land use, and the similar. In Republic of Moldova data on most of these parameters are collected often on a local or individual basis, and therefore, a well-organized regional or basin-wide database is not available. In the Republic of Moldova soil erosion is often as high as 30 tons/ha/year and more than 1.4*106 ha run a potential risk of erosion (Summer & Diernhof, 2003. The model estimated an annual quantity of soil eroded ranging over the Prut River tributaries watersheds between the mean values of 6.2 and 20.4 t/ha/yr. Much of the areas are within the range 10-20 t/ha/yr. The highest values of the quantity of eroded soil is carried out on strong inclined slopes corresponding to areas with agricultural lands and herbaceous vegetation. The results have shown that GIS can be effectively used to investigate critical regions within a basin with respect to erosion.

The effect of water storage change in ET estimation in humid catchments based on water balance models and Budyko framework

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Tingting; Sun, Fubao; Liu, Changming; Liu, Wenbin; Wang, Hong

2017-04-01

An accurate estimation of ET in humid catchments is essential in water-energy budget research and water resource management etc, while it remains a huge challenge and there is no well accepted explanation for the difficulty of annual ET estimation in humid catchments so far. Here we presents the ET estimation in 102 humid catchments over China based on the Budyko framework and two hydrological models: abcd model and Xin'anjiang mdoel, in comparison with ET calculated from the water balance equation (ETwb) on the ground that the ΔS is approximately zero at multiannual and annual time scale. We provides a possible explanation for this poorly annual ET estimation in humid catchments as well. The results show that at multi-annual timescale, the Budyko framework works fine in ET estimation in humid catchments, while at annual time scale, neither the Budyko framework nor the hydrological models can estimate ET well. The major cause for this poorly estimated annual ET in humid catchments is the neglecting of the ΔS in ETwb since it enlarge the variability of real actual evapotranspiration. Much improvement has been made when compared estimated ET + ΔS with those ETwb, and the bigger the catchment area is, the better this improvement is. It provides a reasonable explanation for the poorly estimated annual ET in humid catchments and reveals the important role of the ΔS in ET estimation and validation. We highlight that the annual ΔS shouldn't be taken as zero in water balance equation in humid catchments.

Risk estimation and annual fluxes of emerging contaminants from a Scottish priority catchment to the estuary and North Sea.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Zulin; Lebleu, Melanie; Osprey, Mark; Kerr, Christine; Courtot, Estelle

2017-06-28

Emerging contaminants (ECs) such as endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) and pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) attracted global concern during the last decades due to their potential adverse effects on humans and ecosystems. This work is the first study to assess the spatiotemporal changes, annual fluxes and ecological risk of ECs (4 EDCs and 6 PPCPs) by different monitoring strategies (spot and passive sampling) over 12 months in a Scottish priority catchment (River Ugie, Scotland, 335 km 2 ). Overall, the total concentration in water ranged from contaminants in the River Ugie. The total annual fluxes of 4 EDCs transported to the Ugie estuary and North Sea were estimated to be 409 and 294 g based on the spot and passive sampling data, respectively, while they were 4636 and 4517 g for 6 PPCPs by spot and passive sampling, respectively. The spatiotemporal trend suggested that human activities and medication usages were the primary source of the contaminants. The overall comparison of the two sampling strategies supported the hypothesis that passive sampling tends to integrate the contaminants over a period of exposure and allows quantification of contamination at low concentration. The ecological risk assessment showed that bisphenol A posed the highest risks with 21.5% of the spot samples, resulting in a risk quotient >1. This suggests that mitigation measures might need to be taken to reduce the input of emerging contaminants into the river and its adjacent estuary and sea.

Estimating Green Water Footprints in a Temperate Environment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tim Hess

2010-07-01

Full Text Available The “green” water footprint (GWF of a product is often considered less important than the “blue” water footprint (BWF as “green” water generally has a low, or even negligible, opportunity cost. However, when considering food, fibre and tree products, is not only a useful indicator of the total appropriation of a natural resource, but from a methodological perspective, blue water footprints are frequently estimated as the residual after green water is subtracted from total crop water use. In most published studies, green water use (ETgreen has been estimated from the FAO CROPWAT model using the USDA method for effective rainfall. In this study, four methods for the estimation of the ETgreen of pasture were compared. Two were based on effective rainfall estimated from monthly rainfall and potential evapotranspiration, and two were based on a simulated water balance using long-term daily, or average monthly, weather data from 11 stations in England. The results show that the effective rainfall methods significantly underestimate the annual ETgreen in all cases, as they do not adequately account for the depletion of stored soil water during the summer. A simplified model, based on annual rainfall and reference evapotranspiration (ETo has been tested and used to map the average annual ETgreen of pasture in England.

Estimation of optimal biomass fraction measuring cycle formunicipal solid waste incineration facilities in Korea.

Science.gov (United States)

Kang, Seongmin; Cha, Jae Hyung; Hong, Yoon-Jung; Lee, Daekyeom; Kim, Ki-Hyun; Jeon, Eui-Chan

2018-01-01

This study estimates the optimum sampling cycle using a statistical method for biomass fraction. More than ten samples were collected from each of the three municipal solid waste (MSW) facilities between June 2013 and March 2015 and the biomass fraction was analyzed. The analysis data were grouped into monthly, quarterly, semi-annual, and annual intervals and the optimum sampling cycle for the detection of the biomass fraction was estimated. Biomass fraction data did not show a normal distribution. Therefore, the non-parametric Kruskal-Wallis test was applied to compare the average values for each sample group. The Kruskal-Wallis test results showed that the average monthly, quarterly, semi-annual, and annual values for all three MSW incineration facilities were equal. Therefore, the biomass fraction at the MSW incineration facilities should be calculated on a yearly cycle which is the longest period of the temporal cycles tested. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Unauthorized Immigration to the United States: Annual Estimates and Components of Change, by State, 1990 to 2010

Science.gov (United States)

Warren, Robert; Warren, John Robert

2013-01-01

We describe a method for producing annual estimates of the unauthorized immigrant population in the United Sates and components of population change, for each state and D.C., for 1990 to 2010. We quantify a sharp drop in the number of unauthorized immigrants arriving since 2000, and we demonstrate the role of departures from the population (emigration, adjustment to legal status, removal by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), and deaths) in reducing population growth from one million in 2000 to population losses in 2008 and 2009. The number arriving in the U.S. peaked at more than one million in 1999 to 2001, and then declined rapidly through 2009. We provide evidence that population growth stopped after 2007 primarily because entries declined and not because emigration increased during the economic crisis. Our estimates of the total unauthorized immigrant population in the U.S. and in the top ten states are comparable to those produced by DHS and the Pew Hispanic Center. For the remaining states and D.C., our data and methods produce estimates with smaller ranges of sampling error. PMID:23956482

Unauthorized Immigration to the United States: Annual Estimates and Components of Change, by State, 1990 to 2010.

Science.gov (United States)

Warren, Robert; Warren, John Robert

2013-06-01

We describe a method for producing annual estimates of the unauthorized immigrant population in the United Sates and components of population change, for each state and D.C., for 1990 to 2010. We quantify a sharp drop in the number of unauthorized immigrants arriving since 2000, and we demonstrate the role of departures from the population (emigration, adjustment to legal status, removal by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), and deaths) in reducing population growth from one million in 2000 to population losses in 2008 and 2009. The number arriving in the U.S. peaked at more than one million in 1999 to 2001, and then declined rapidly through 2009. We provide evidence that population growth stopped after 2007 primarily because entries declined and not because emigration increased during the economic crisis. Our estimates of the total unauthorized immigrant population in the U.S. and in the top ten states are comparable to those produced by DHS and the Pew Hispanic Center. For the remaining states and D.C., our data and methods produce estimates with smaller ranges of sampling error.

Plant Distribution Data Show Broader Climatic Limits than Expert-Based Climatic Tolerance Estimates.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Caroline A Curtis

Full Text Available Although increasingly sophisticated environmental measures are being applied to species distributions models, the focus remains on using climatic data to provide estimates of habitat suitability. Climatic tolerance estimates based on expert knowledge are available for a wide range of plants via the USDA PLANTS database. We aim to test how climatic tolerance inferred from plant distribution records relates to tolerance estimated by experts. Further, we use this information to identify circumstances when species distributions are more likely to approximate climatic tolerance.We compiled expert knowledge estimates of minimum and maximum precipitation and minimum temperature tolerance for over 1800 conservation plant species from the 'plant characteristics' information in the USDA PLANTS database. We derived climatic tolerance from distribution data downloaded from the Global Biodiversity and Information Facility (GBIF and corresponding climate from WorldClim. We compared expert-derived climatic tolerance to empirical estimates to find the difference between their inferred climate niches (ΔCN, and tested whether ΔCN was influenced by growth form or range size.Climate niches calculated from distribution data were significantly broader than expert-based tolerance estimates (Mann-Whitney p values << 0.001. The average plant could tolerate 24 mm lower minimum precipitation, 14 mm higher maximum precipitation, and 7° C lower minimum temperatures based on distribution data relative to expert-based tolerance estimates. Species with larger ranges had greater ΔCN for minimum precipitation and minimum temperature. For maximum precipitation and minimum temperature, forbs and grasses tended to have larger ΔCN while grasses and trees had larger ΔCN for minimum precipitation.Our results show that distribution data are consistently broader than USDA PLANTS experts' knowledge and likely provide more robust estimates of climatic tolerance, especially for

Effect of the Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation Estimation Error on Net Primary Production Estimation - A Study with MODIS FPAR and TOMS Ultraviolet Reflective Products

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kobayashi, H.; Matsunaga, T.; Hoyano, A.

2002-01-01

Absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (APAR), which is defined as downward solar radiation in 400-700 nm absorbed by vegetation, is one of the significant variables for Net Primary Production (NPP) estimation from satellite data. Toward the reduction of the uncertainties in the global NPP estimation, it is necessary to clarify the APAR accuracy. In this paper, first we proposed the improved PAR estimation method based on Eck and Dye's method in which the ultraviolet (UV) reflectivity data derived from Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) at the top of atmosphere were used for clouds transmittance estimation. The proposed method considered the variable effects of land surface UV reflectivity on the satellite-observed UV data. Monthly mean PAR comparisons between satellite-derived and ground-based data at various meteorological stations in Japan indicated that the improved PAR estimation method reduced the bias errors in the summer season. Assuming the relative error of the fraction of PAR (FPAR) derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to be 10%, we estimated APAR relative errors to be 10-15%. Annual NPP is calculated using APAR derived from MODIS/ FPAR and the improved PAR estimation method. It is shown that random and bias errors of annual NPP in a 1 km resolution pixel are less than 4% and 6% respectively. The APAR bias errors due to the PAR bias errors also affect the estimated total NPP. We estimated the most probable total annual NPP in Japan by subtracting the bias PAR errors. It amounts about 248 MtC/yr. Using the improved PAR estimation method, and Eck and Dye's method, total annual NPP is 4% and 9% difference from most probable value respectively. The previous intercomparison study among using fifteen NPP models4) showed that global NPP estimations among NPP models are 44.4-66.3 GtC/yr (coefficient of variation = 14%). Hence we conclude that the NPP estimation uncertainty due to APAR estimation error is small

Annual national direct and indirect cost estimates of the prevention and treatment of cervical cancer in Brazil

Science.gov (United States)

Novaes, Hillegonda Maria Dutilh; Itria, Alexander; Silva, Gulnar Azevedo e; Sartori, Ana Marli Christovam; Rama, Cristina Helena; de Soárez, Patrícia Coelho

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the annual direct and indirect costs of the prevention and treatment of cervical cancer in Brazil. METHODS: This cost description study used a "gross-costing" methodology and adopted the health system and societal perspectives. The estimates were grouped into sets of procedures performed in phases of cervical cancer care: the screening, diagnosis and treatment of precancerous lesions and the treatment of cervical cancer. The costs were estimated for the public and private health systems, using data from national health information systems, population surveys, and literature reviews. The cost estimates are presented in 2006 USD. RESULTS: From the societal perspective, the estimated total costs of the prevention and treatment of cervical cancer amounted to USD $1,321,683,034, which was categorized as follows: procedures (USD $213,199,490), visits (USD $325,509,842), transportation (USD $106,521,537) and productivity losses (USD $676,452,166). Indirect costs represented 51% of the total costs, followed by direct medical costs (visits and procedures) at 41% and direct non-medical costs (transportation) at 8%. The public system represented 46% of the total costs, and the private system represented 54%. CONCLUSION: Our national cost estimates of cervical cancer prevention and treatment, indicating the economic importance of cervical cancer screening and care, will be useful in monitoring the effect of the HPV vaccine introduction and are of interest in research and health care management. PMID:26017797

The estimated cost of "no-shows" in an academic pediatric neurology clinic.

Science.gov (United States)

Guzek, Lindsay M; Gentry, Shelley D; Golomb, Meredith R

2015-02-01

Missed appointments ("no-shows") represent an important source of lost revenue for academic medical centers. The goal of this study was to examine the costs of "no-shows" at an academic pediatric neurology outpatient clinic. This was a retrospective cohort study of patients who missed appointments at an academic pediatric neurology outpatient clinic during 1 academic year. Revenue lost was estimated based on average reimbursement for different insurance types and visit types. The yearly "no-show" rate was 26%. Yearly revenue lost from missed appointments was $257,724.57, and monthly losses ranged from $15,652.33 in October 2013 to $27,042.44 in January 2014. The yearly revenue lost from missed appointments at the academic pediatric neurology clinic represents funds that could have been used to improve patient access and care. Further work is needed to develop strategies to decrease the no-show rate to decrease lost revenue and improve patient care and access. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimated annual economic loss from organ condemnation ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

as a basis for the analysis of estimation of the economic significance of bovine .... percent involvement of each organ were used in the estimation of the financial loss from organ .... DVM thesis, Addis Ababa University, Faculty of Veterinary.

Annual nitrate drawdown observed by SOCCOM profiling floats and the relationship to annual net community production

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Kenneth S.; Plant, Joshua N.; Dunne, John P.; Talley, Lynne D.; Sarmiento, Jorge L.

2017-08-01

Annual nitrate cycles have been measured throughout the pelagic waters of the Southern Ocean, including regions with seasonal ice cover and southern hemisphere subtropical zones. Vertically resolved nitrate measurements were made using in situ ultraviolet spectrophotometer (ISUS) and submersible ultraviolet nitrate analyzer (SUNA) optical nitrate sensors deployed on profiling floats. Thirty-one floats returned 40 complete annual cycles. The mean nitrate profile from the month with the highest winter nitrate minus the mean profile from the month with the lowest nitrate yields the annual nitrate drawdown. This quantity was integrated to 200 m depth and converted to carbon using the Redfield ratio to estimate annual net community production (ANCP) throughout the Southern Ocean south of 30°S. A well-defined, zonal mean distribution is found with highest values (3-4 mol C m-2 yr-1) from 40 to 50°S. Lowest values are found in the subtropics and in the seasonal ice zone. The area weighted mean was 2.9 mol C m-2 yr-1 for all regions south of 40°S. Cumulative ANCP south of 50°S is 1.3 Pg C yr-1. This represents about 13% of global ANCP in about 14% of the global ocean area.Plain Language SummaryThis manuscript reports on 40 annual cycles of nitrate observed by chemical sensors on SOCCOM profiling floats. The annual drawdown in nitrate concentration by phytoplankton is used to assess the spatial variability of annual net community production in the Southern Ocean. This ANCP is a key component of the global carbon cycle and it exerts an important control on atmospheric carbon dioxide. We show that the results are consistent with our prior understanding of Southern Ocean ANCP, which has required decades of observations to accumulate. The profiling floats now enable annual resolution of this key process. The results also highlight spatial variability in ANCP in the Southern Ocean.

An automated approach for annual layer counting in ice cores

Science.gov (United States)

Winstrup, M.; Svensson, A.; Rasmussen, S. O.; Winther, O.; Steig, E.; Axelrod, A.

2012-04-01

and their differences discussed. Within the estimated uncertainties, the two methodologies agree. This shows the potential for a fully automated annual layer counting method to be operational for data sections where the annual layering is unknown.

Uranium industry annual 1998

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1999-01-01

The Uranium Industry Annual 1998 (UIA 1998) provides current statistical data on the US uranium industry's activities relating to uranium raw materials and uranium marketing. It contains data for the period 1989 through 2008 as collected on the Form EIA-858, ''Uranium Industry Annual Survey.'' Data provides a comprehensive statistical characterization of the industry's activities for the survey year and also include some information about industry's plans and commitments for the near-term future. Data on uranium raw materials activities for 1989 through 1998, including exploration activities and expenditures, EIA-estimated reserves, mine production of uranium, production of uranium concentrate, and industry employment, are presented in Chapter 1. Data on uranium marketing activities for 1994 through 2008, including purchases of uranium and enrichment services, enrichment feed deliveries, uranium fuel assemblies, filled and unfilled market requirements, and uranium inventories, are shown in Chapter 2. The methodology used in the 1998 survey, including data edit and analysis, is described in Appendix A. The methodologies for estimation of resources and reserves are described in Appendix B. A list of respondents to the ''Uranium Industry Annual Survey'' is provided in Appendix C. The Form EIA-858 ''Uranium Industry Annual Survey'' is shown in Appendix D. For the readers convenience, metric versions of selected tables from Chapters 1 and 2 are presented in Appendix E along with the standard conversion factors used. A glossary of technical terms is at the end of the report. 24 figs., 56 tabs

Estimation of base temperatures for nine weed species.

Science.gov (United States)

Steinmaus, S J; Prather, T S; Holt, J S

2000-02-01

Experiments were conducted to test several methods for estimating low temperature thresholds for seed germination. Temperature responses of nine weeds common in annual agroecosystems were assessed in temperature gradient experiments. Species included summer annuals (Amaranthus albus, A. palmeri, Digitaria sanguinalis, Echinochloa crus-galli, Portulaca oleracea, and Setaria glauca), winter annuals (Hirschfeldia incana and Sonchus oleraceus), and Conyza canadensis, which is classified as a summer or winter annual. The temperature below which development ceases (Tbase) was estimated as the x-intercept of four conventional germination rate indices regressed on temperature, by repeated probit analysis, and by a mathematical approach. An overall Tbase estimate for each species was the average across indices weighted by the reciprocal of the variance associated with the estimate. Germination rates increased linearly with temperature between 15 degrees C and 30 degrees C for all species. Consistent estimates of Tbase were obtained for most species using several indices. The most statistically robust and biologically relevant method was the reciprocal time to median germination, which can also be used to estimate other biologically meaningful parameters. The mean Tbase for summer annuals (13.8 degrees C) was higher than that for winter annuals (8.3 degrees C). The two germination response characteristics, Tbase and slope (rate), influence a species' germination behaviour in the field since the germination inhibiting effects of a high Tbase may be offset by the germination promoting effects of a rapid germination response to temperature. Estimates of Tbase may be incorporated into predictive thermal time models to assist weed control practitioners in making management decisions.

Long term estimation of carbon dynamic and sequestration for Iranian agro-ecosystem: I- Net primary productivity and annual carbon input for common agricultural crops

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M Nassiri Mahalati

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Evaluation of carbon input is one of the most important factors for estimating soil carbon changes and potential for carbon sequestration. To evaluate the net primary productivity (NPP and soil carbon input in agricultural eco-systems of Iran, data for yield, cultivated area, harvest index (HI and shoot /root ratio in different crops including: wheat, barley, maize, cotton, rice, alfalfa and chickpea were obtained for different provinces. Then, allocated carbon to different organs of plant were calculated based on carbon allocation coefficients and finally, the net primary productivity based on carbon (NPPc was calculated. The ratio of NPPc that was annually returned to soil was considered as carbon annual input. The results showed that the maximum amount of NPPc for wheat, barely and alfalfa were obtained in Khazari climate for rice, chickpea and cotton was achieved in warm-wet climate and for maize was gained in warm-dry climate. In all regions of Iran, chickpea had the lowest effect on NPPc and consequently on carbon sequestration. The highest amount of carbon input per unit area among studied crops and different regions were observed in Khazari region for alfalfa whereas, the lowest carbon input per unit area was relation to chickpea in cold region. The lowest gap between actual and potential of carbon sequestration was observed in alfalfa whereas wheat, rice and cotton showed the most gap by 0.4, 0.38 and 0.37, respectively.

An automated approach for annual layer counting in ice cores

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Winstrup

2012-11-01

Full Text Available A novel method for automated annual layer counting in seasonally-resolved paleoclimate records has been developed. It relies on algorithms from the statistical framework of hidden Markov models (HMMs, which originally was developed for use in machine speech recognition. The strength of the layer detection algorithm lies in the way it is able to imitate the manual procedures for annual layer counting, while being based on statistical criteria for annual layer identification. The most likely positions of multiple layer boundaries in a section of ice core data are determined simultaneously, and a probabilistic uncertainty estimate of the resulting layer count is provided, ensuring an objective treatment of ambiguous layers in the data. Furthermore, multiple data series can be incorporated and used simultaneously. In this study, the automated layer counting algorithm has been applied to two ice core records from Greenland: one displaying a distinct annual signal and one which is more challenging. The algorithm shows high skill in reproducing the results from manual layer counts, and the resulting timescale compares well to absolute-dated volcanic marker horizons where these exist.

Estimation of Annual Average Soil Loss, Based on Rusle Model in Kallar Watershed, Bhavani Basin, Tamil Nadu, India

Science.gov (United States)

Rahaman, S. Abdul; Aruchamy, S.; Jegankumar, R.; Ajeez, S. Abdul

2015-10-01

Soil erosion is a widespread environmental challenge faced in Kallar watershed nowadays. Erosion is defined as the movement of soil by water and wind, and it occurs in Kallar watershed under a wide range of land uses. Erosion by water can be dramatic during storm events, resulting in wash-outs and gullies. It can also be insidious, occurring as sheet and rill erosion during heavy rains. Most of the soil lost by water erosion is by the processes of sheet and rill erosion. Land degradation and subsequent soil erosion and sedimentation play a significant role in impairing water resources within sub watersheds, watersheds and basins. Using conventional methods to assess soil erosion risk is expensive and time consuming. A comprehensive methodology that integrates Remote sensing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS), coupled with the use of an empirical model (Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation- RUSLE) to assess risk, can identify and assess soil erosion potential and estimate the value of soil loss. GIS data layers including, rainfall erosivity (R), soil erodability (K), slope length and steepness (LS), cover management (C) and conservation practice (P) factors were computed to determine their effects on average annual soil loss in the study area. The final map of annual soil erosion shows a maximum soil loss of 398.58 t/ h-1/ y-1. Based on the result soil erosion was classified in to soil erosion severity map with five classes, very low, low, moderate, high and critical respectively. Further RUSLE factors has been broken into two categories, soil erosion susceptibility (A=RKLS), and soil erosion hazard (A=RKLSCP) have been computed. It is understood that functions of C and P are factors that can be controlled and thus can greatly reduce soil loss through management and conservational measures.

Estimating the proportion of groundwater recharge from flood events in relation to total annual recharge in a karst aquifer

Science.gov (United States)

Dvory, N. Z.; Ronen, A.; Livshitz, Y.; Adar, E.; Kuznetsov, M.; Yakirevich, A.

2017-12-01

Sustainable groundwater production from karstic aquifers is primarily dictated by its recharge rate. Therefore, in order to limit over-exploitation, it is essential to accurately quantify groundwater recharge. Infiltration during erratic floods in karstic basins may contribute substantial amount to aquifer recharge. However, the complicated nature of karst systems, which are characterized in part by multiple springs, sinkholes, and losing/gaining streams, present a large obstacle to accurately assess the actual contribution of flood water to groundwater recharge. In this study, we aim to quantify the proportion of groundwater recharge during flood events in relation to the annual recharge for karst aquifers. The role of karst conduits on flash flood infiltration was examined during four flood and artificial runoff events in the Sorek creek near Jerusalem, Israel. The events were monitored in short time steps (four minutes). This high resolution analysis is essential to accurately estimating surface flow volumes, which are of particular importance in arid and semi-arid climate where ephemeral flows may provide a substantial contribution to the groundwater reservoirs. For the present investigation, we distinguished between direct infiltration, percolation through karst conduits and diffused infiltration, which is most affected by evapotranspiration. A water balance was then calculated for the 2014/15 hydrologic year using the Hydrologic Engineering Center - Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS). Simulations show that an additional 8% to 24% of the annual recharge volume is added from runoff losses along the creek that infiltrate through the karst system into the aquifer. The results improve the understanding of recharge processes and support the use of the proposed methodology for quantifying groundwater recharge.

Applying ARIMA model for annual volume time series of the Magdalena River

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gloria Amaris

2017-04-01

Conclusions: The simulated results obtained with the ARIMA model compared to the observed data showed a fairly good adjustment of the minimum and maximum magnitudes. This allows concluding that it is a good tool for estimating minimum and maximum volumes, even though this model is not capable of simulating the exact behaviour of an annual volume time series.

Estimates of global, regional, and national annual CO{sub 2} emissions from fossil-fuel burning, hydraulic cement production, and gas flaring: 1950--1992

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boden, T.A.; Marland, G. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Andres, R.J. [University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States). Inst. of Northern Engineering

1995-12-01

This document describes the compilation, content, and format of the most comprehensive C0{sub 2}-emissions database currently available. The database includes global, regional, and national annual estimates of C0{sub 2} emissions resulting from fossil-fuel burning, cement manufacturing, and gas flaring in oil fields for 1950--92 as well as the energy production, consumption, and trade data used for these estimates. The methods of Marland and Rotty (1983) are used to calculate these emission estimates. For the first time, the methods and data used to calculate CO, emissions from gas flaring are presented. This C0{sub 2}-emissions database is useful for carbon-cycle research, provides estimates of the rate at which fossil-fuel combustion has released C0{sub 2} to the atmosphere, and offers baseline estimates for those countries compiling 1990 C0{sub 2}-emissions inventories.

Climate reconstruction analysis using coexistence likelihood estimation (CRACLE): a method for the estimation of climate using vegetation.

Science.gov (United States)

Harbert, Robert S; Nixon, Kevin C

2015-08-01

• Plant distributions have long been understood to be correlated with the environmental conditions to which species are adapted. Climate is one of the major components driving species distributions. Therefore, it is expected that the plants coexisting in a community are reflective of the local environment, particularly climate.• Presented here is a method for the estimation of climate from local plant species coexistence data. The method, Climate Reconstruction Analysis using Coexistence Likelihood Estimation (CRACLE), is a likelihood-based method that employs specimen collection data at a global scale for the inference of species climate tolerance. CRACLE calculates the maximum joint likelihood of coexistence given individual species climate tolerance characterization to estimate the expected climate.• Plant distribution data for more than 4000 species were used to show that this method accurately infers expected climate profiles for 165 sites with diverse climatic conditions. Estimates differ from the WorldClim global climate model by less than 1.5°C on average for mean annual temperature and less than ∼250 mm for mean annual precipitation. This is a significant improvement upon other plant-based climate-proxy methods.• CRACLE validates long hypothesized interactions between climate and local associations of plant species. Furthermore, CRACLE successfully estimates climate that is consistent with the widely used WorldClim model and therefore may be applied to the quantitative estimation of paleoclimate in future studies. © 2015 Botanical Society of America, Inc.

Estimating Climate Trends: Application to United States Plant Hardiness Zones

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nir Y. Krakauer

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The United States Department of Agriculture classifies plant hardiness zones based on mean annual minimum temperatures over some past period (currently 1976–2005. Since temperatures are changing, these values may benefit from updating. I outline a multistep methodology involving imputation of missing station values, geostatistical interpolation, and time series smoothing to update a climate variable’s expected value compared to a climatology period and apply it to estimating annual minimum temperature change over the coterminous United States. I show using hindcast experiments that trend estimation gives more accurate predictions of minimum temperatures 1-2 years in advance compared to the previous 30 years’ mean alone. I find that annual minimum temperature increased roughly 2.5 times faster than mean temperature (~2.0 K versus ~0.8 K since 1970, and is already an average of 1.2  0.5 K (regionally up to ~2 K above the 1976–2005 mean, so that much of the country belongs to warmer hardiness zones compared to the current map. The methods developed may also be applied to estimate changes in other climate variables and geographic regions.

Estimating annual soil carbon loss in agricultural peatland soils using a nitrogen budget approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Kirk, Emilie R; van Kessel, Chris; Horwath, William R; Linquist, Bruce A

2015-01-01

Around the world, peatland degradation and soil subsidence is occurring where these soils have been converted to agriculture. Since initial drainage in the mid-1800s, continuous farming of such soils in the California Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (the Delta) has led to subsidence of up to 8 meters in places, primarily due to soil organic matter (SOM) oxidation and physical compaction. Rice (Oryza sativa) production has been proposed as an alternative cropping system to limit SOM oxidation. Preliminary research on these soils revealed high N uptake by rice in N fertilizer omission plots, which we hypothesized was the result of SOM oxidation releasing N. Testing this hypothesis, we developed a novel N budgeting approach to assess annual soil C and N loss based on plant N uptake and fallow season N mineralization. Through field experiments examining N dynamics during growing season and winter fallow periods, a complete annual N budget was developed. Soil C loss was calculated from SOM-N mineralization using the soil C:N ratio. Surface water and crop residue were negligible in the total N uptake budget (3 - 4 % combined). Shallow groundwater contributed 24 - 33 %, likely representing subsurface SOM-N mineralization. Assuming 6 and 25 kg N ha-1 from atmospheric deposition and biological N2 fixation, respectively, our results suggest 77 - 81 % of plant N uptake (129 - 149 kg N ha-1) was supplied by SOM mineralization. Considering a range of N uptake efficiency from 50 - 70 %, estimated net C loss ranged from 1149 - 2473 kg C ha-1. These findings suggest that rice systems, as currently managed, reduce the rate of C loss from organic delta soils relative to other agricultural practices.

Annual trace-metal load estimates and flow-weighted concentrations of cadmium, lead, and zinc in the Spokane River basin, Idaho and Washington, 1999-2004

Science.gov (United States)

Donato, Mary M.

2006-01-01

Streamflow and trace-metal concentration data collected at 10 locations in the Spokane River basin of northern Idaho and eastern Washington during 1999-2004 were used as input for the U.S. Geological Survey software, LOADEST, to estimate annual loads and mean flow-weighted concentrations of total and dissolved cadmium, lead, and zinc. Cadmium composed less than 1 percent of the total metal load at all stations; lead constituted from 6 to 42 percent of the total load at stations upstream from Coeur d'Alene Lake and from 2 to 4 percent at stations downstream of the lake. Zinc composed more than 90 percent of the total metal load at 6 of the 10 stations examined in this study. Trace-metal loads were lowest at the station on Pine Creek below Amy Gulch, where the mean annual total cadmium load for 1999-2004 was 39 kilograms per year (kg/yr), the mean estimated total lead load was about 1,700 kg/yr, and the mean annual total zinc load was 14,000 kg/yr. The trace-metal loads at stations on North Fork Coeur d'Alene River at Enaville, Ninemile Creek, and Canyon Creek also were relatively low. Trace-metal loads were highest at the station at Coeur d'Alene River near Harrison. The mean annual total cadmium load was 3,400 kg/yr, the mean total lead load was 240,000 kg/yr, and the mean total zinc load was 510,000 kg/yr for 1999-2004. Trace-metal loads at the station at South Fork Coeur d'Alene River near Pinehurst and the three stations on the Spokane River downstream of Coeur d'Alene Lake also were relatively high. Differences in metal loads, particularly lead, between stations upstream and downstream of Coeur d'Alene Lake likely are due to trapping and retention of metals in lakebed sediments. LOADEST software was used to estimate loads for water years 1999-2001 for many of the same sites discussed in this report. Overall, results from this study and those from a previous study are in good agreement. Observed differences between the two studies are attributable to streamflow

Petroleum supply annual 1992

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-01-01

The Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA) contains information on the supply and disposition of crude oil and petroleum products. The publication reflects data that were collected from the petroleum industry during 1992 through annual and monthly surveys. The PSA is divided into two volumes. The first volume contains four sections: Summary Statistics, Detailed Statistics, Refinery Capacity, and Oxygenate Capacity each with final annual data. This second volume contains final statistics for each month of 1992, and replaces data previously published in the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM). The tables in Volumes 1 and 2 are similarly numbered to facilitate comparison between them. Explanatory Notes, located at the end of this publication, present information describing data collection, sources, estimation methodology, data quality control procedures, modifications to reporting requirements and interpretation of tables. Industry terminology and product definitions are listed alphabetically in the Glossary

First-Annual Global Clean Energy Manufacturing Report Shows Strong Domestic Benefits for the United States

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

EERE Office of Strategic Programs, Strategic Priorities and Impact Analysis Team

2017-02-01

The Energy Department’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) commissioned the Clean Energy Manufacturing Analysis Center to conduct the first-ever annual assessment of the economic state of global clean energy manufacturing. The report, Benchmarks of Global Clean Energy Manufacturing, makes economic data on clean energy technology widely available.

Modelling of extreme rainfall events in Peninsular Malaysia based on annual maximum and partial duration series

Science.gov (United States)

Zin, Wan Zawiah Wan; Shinyie, Wendy Ling; Jemain, Abdul Aziz

2015-02-01

In this study, two series of data for extreme rainfall events are generated based on Annual Maximum and Partial Duration Methods, derived from 102 rain-gauge stations in Peninsular from 1982-2012. To determine the optimal threshold for each station, several requirements must be satisfied and Adapted Hill estimator is employed for this purpose. A semi-parametric bootstrap is then used to estimate the mean square error (MSE) of the estimator at each threshold and the optimal threshold is selected based on the smallest MSE. The mean annual frequency is also checked to ensure that it lies in the range of one to five and the resulting data is also de-clustered to ensure independence. The two data series are then fitted to Generalized Extreme Value and Generalized Pareto distributions for annual maximum and partial duration series, respectively. The parameter estimation methods used are the Maximum Likelihood and the L-moment methods. Two goodness of fit tests are then used to evaluate the best-fitted distribution. The results showed that the Partial Duration series with Generalized Pareto distribution and Maximum Likelihood parameter estimation provides the best representation for extreme rainfall events in Peninsular Malaysia for majority of the stations studied. Based on these findings, several return values are also derived and spatial mapping are constructed to identify the distribution characteristic of extreme rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia.

Annual electricity consumption forecasting by neural network in high energy consuming industrial sectors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Azadeh, A.; Ghaderi, S.F.; Sohrabkhani, S.

2008-01-01

This paper presents an artificial neural network (ANN) approach for annual electricity consumption in high energy consumption industrial sectors. Chemicals, basic metals and non-metal minerals industries are defined as high energy consuming industries. It is claimed that, due to high fluctuations of energy consumption in high energy consumption industries, conventional regression models do not forecast energy consumption correctly and precisely. Although ANNs have been typically used to forecast short term consumptions, this paper shows that it is a more precise approach to forecast annual consumption in such industries. Furthermore, the ANN approach based on a supervised multi-layer perceptron (MLP) is used to show it can estimate the annual consumption with less error. Actual data from high energy consuming (intensive) industries in Iran from 1979 to 2003 is used to illustrate the applicability of the ANN approach. This study shows the advantage of the ANN approach through analysis of variance (ANOVA). Furthermore, the ANN forecast is compared with actual data and the conventional regression model through ANOVA to show its superiority. This is the first study to present an algorithm based on the ANN and ANOVA for forecasting long term electricity consumption in high energy consuming industries

Economic consequences of incident disease: the effect on loss of annual income

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rayce, Signe L; Christensen, Ulla; Hougaard, Charlotte Ø

2008-01-01

AIMS: To estimate the effect of incident disease on loss of annual income on an individual level, to analyse whether loss of job mediates the effect on loss of annual income, to analyse whether an association is modified by socioeconomic position, and to determine whether the effect on annual inc...... on annual income. This might be interpreted as a buffering effect of the welfare policies in relation to the more discriminating demands of the labour market.......AIMS: To estimate the effect of incident disease on loss of annual income on an individual level, to analyse whether loss of job mediates the effect on loss of annual income, to analyse whether an association is modified by socioeconomic position, and to determine whether the effect on annual...... with an increased and equally strong risk for experiencing a loss of annual income corresponding to one income decile (>25,000 DKK) in the year following disease (odds ratio (OR) from 1.37 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.09-1.72) to 1.57 (95% CI 1.21-2.04)). No significant effect of female AMI was found...

Linking annual N2O emission in organic soils to mineral nitrogen input as estimated by heterotrophic respiration and soil C/N ratio.

Science.gov (United States)

Mu, Zhijian; Huang, Aiying; Ni, Jiupai; Xie, Deti

2014-01-01

Organic soils are an important source of N2O, but global estimates of these fluxes remain uncertain because measurements are sparse. We tested the hypothesis that N2O fluxes can be predicted from estimates of mineral nitrogen input, calculated from readily-available measurements of CO2 flux and soil C/N ratio. From studies of organic soils throughout the world, we compiled a data set of annual CO2 and N2O fluxes which were measured concurrently. The input of soil mineral nitrogen in these studies was estimated from applied fertilizer nitrogen and organic nitrogen mineralization. The latter was calculated by dividing the rate of soil heterotrophic respiration by soil C/N ratio. This index of mineral nitrogen input explained up to 69% of the overall variability of N2O fluxes, whereas CO2 flux or soil C/N ratio alone explained only 49% and 36% of the variability, respectively. Including water table level in the model, along with mineral nitrogen input, further improved the model with the explanatory proportion of variability in N2O flux increasing to 75%. Unlike grassland or cropland soils, forest soils were evidently nitrogen-limited, so water table level had no significant effect on N2O flux. Our proposed approach, which uses the product of soil-derived CO2 flux and the inverse of soil C/N ratio as a proxy for nitrogen mineralization, shows promise for estimating regional or global N2O fluxes from organic soils, although some further enhancements may be warranted.

Spatial and temporal estimation of runoff in a semi-arid microwatershed of Southern India.

Science.gov (United States)

Rejani, R; Rao, K V; Osman, M; Chary, G R; Pushpanjali; Reddy, K Sammi; Rao, Ch Srinivasa

2015-08-01

In a semi-arid microwatershed of Warangal district in Southern India, daily runoff was estimated spatially using Soil Conservation Service (SCS)-curve number (CN) method coupled with GIS. The groundwater status in this region is over-exploited, and precise estimation of runoff is very essential to plan interventions for this ungauged microwatershed. Rainfall is the most important factor governing runoff, and 75.8% of the daily rainfall and 92.1% of the rainy days which occurred were below 25 mm/day. The declines in rainfall and rainy days observed in recent years were 9.8 and 8.4%, respectively. The surface runoff estimated from crop land for a period of 57 years varied from 0 to 365 mm with a mean annual runoff of 103.7 mm or 14.1% of the mean annual rainfall. The mean annual runoff showed a significant reduction from 108.7 to 82.9 mm in recent years. The decadal variation of annual runoff from crop land over the years varied from 49.2 to 89.0% which showed the caution needed while planning watershed management works in this microwatershed. Among the four land use land cover conditions prevailing in the area, the higher runoff (20% of the mean annual rainfall) was observed from current fallow in clayey soil and lower runoff of 8.7% from crop land in loamy soil due to the increased canopy coverage. The drought years which occurred during recent years (1991-2007) in crop land have increased by 3.5%, normal years have increased by 15.6%, and the above normal years have decreased by 19.1%. This methodology can be adopted for estimating the runoff potential from similar ungauged watersheds with deficient data. It is concluded that in order to ensure long-term and sustainable groundwater utilization in the region, proper estimation of runoff and implementation of suitable water harvesting measures are the need of the hour.

International energy annual 1996

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1998-02-01

The International Energy Annual presents an overview of key international energy trends for production, consumption, imports, and exports of primary energy commodities in over 220 countries, dependencies, and areas of special sovereignty. Also included are population and gross domestic product data, as well as prices for crude oil and petroleum products in selected countries. Renewable energy reported in the International Energy Annual includes hydroelectric power, geothermal, solar, and wind electric power, biofuels energy for the US, and biofuels electric power for Brazil. New in the 1996 edition are estimates of carbon dioxide emissions from the consumption of petroleum and coal, and the consumption and flaring of natural gas. 72 tabs.

Estimating long-term statistics for annual precipitation for six regions of the United States from tree-ring data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fritts, H.C.; DeWitt, E.; Gordon, G.A.; Hunt, J.H.; Lofgren, G.R.

1979-12-01

Spatial anomalies of seasonal precipitation for the United States and southwestern Canada have been reconstructed from 1602 through 1961 using dendrochronological and multivariate techniques on 65 arid-site tree-ring chronologies from western North America. Seasonal reconstructions are averaged to obtain mean annual precipitation values for six regions of importance to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Nuclear Waste Management Program (NWMP). Statistics calculated from the regionally averaged annual values for 25-year and longer intervals show annual precipitation in the seventeenth through nineteenth centuries to be lower than in the twentieth century for three regions in the American Southwest and higher for one region in the Northwest and two regions in the East. The variability of precipitation generally was higher in the past three centuries than in the present century. Twenty-five-year intervals with noteworthy statistics are identified and important results are summarized and tabulated for use in the hydrologic modeling of the NWMP. Additional research is recommended to incorporate temperature and precipitation into a single hydrologic parameter

Estimating annual soil carbon loss in agricultural peatland soils using a nitrogen budget approach.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emilie R Kirk

Full Text Available Around the world, peatland degradation and soil subsidence is occurring where these soils have been converted to agriculture. Since initial drainage in the mid-1800s, continuous farming of such soils in the California Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (the Delta has led to subsidence of up to 8 meters in places, primarily due to soil organic matter (SOM oxidation and physical compaction. Rice (Oryza sativa production has been proposed as an alternative cropping system to limit SOM oxidation. Preliminary research on these soils revealed high N uptake by rice in N fertilizer omission plots, which we hypothesized was the result of SOM oxidation releasing N. Testing this hypothesis, we developed a novel N budgeting approach to assess annual soil C and N loss based on plant N uptake and fallow season N mineralization. Through field experiments examining N dynamics during growing season and winter fallow periods, a complete annual N budget was developed. Soil C loss was calculated from SOM-N mineralization using the soil C:N ratio. Surface water and crop residue were negligible in the total N uptake budget (3 - 4 % combined. Shallow groundwater contributed 24 - 33 %, likely representing subsurface SOM-N mineralization. Assuming 6 and 25 kg N ha-1 from atmospheric deposition and biological N2 fixation, respectively, our results suggest 77 - 81 % of plant N uptake (129 - 149 kg N ha-1 was supplied by SOM mineralization. Considering a range of N uptake efficiency from 50 - 70 %, estimated net C loss ranged from 1149 - 2473 kg C ha-1. These findings suggest that rice systems, as currently managed, reduce the rate of C loss from organic delta soils relative to other agricultural practices.

MODIS Based Estimation of Forest Aboveground Biomass in China.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guodong Yin

Full Text Available Accurate estimation of forest biomass C stock is essential to understand carbon cycles. However, current estimates of Chinese forest biomass are mostly based on inventory-based timber volumes and empirical conversion factors at the provincial scale, which could introduce large uncertainties in forest biomass estimation. Here we provide a data-driven estimate of Chinese forest aboveground biomass from 2001 to 2013 at a spatial resolution of 1 km by integrating a recently reviewed plot-level ground-measured forest aboveground biomass database with geospatial information from 1-km Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS dataset in a machine learning algorithm (the model tree ensemble, MTE. We show that Chinese forest aboveground biomass is 8.56 Pg C, which is mainly contributed by evergreen needle-leaf forests and deciduous broadleaf forests. The mean forest aboveground biomass density is 56.1 Mg C ha-1, with high values observed in temperate humid regions. The responses of forest aboveground biomass density to mean annual temperature are closely tied to water conditions; that is, negative responses dominate regions with mean annual precipitation less than 1300 mm y-1 and positive responses prevail in regions with mean annual precipitation higher than 2800 mm y-1. During the 2000s, the forests in China sequestered C by 61.9 Tg C y-1, and this C sink is mainly distributed in north China and may be attributed to warming climate, rising CO2 concentration, N deposition, and growth of young forests.

MODIS Based Estimation of Forest Aboveground Biomass in China

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Yan; Wang, Tao; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Piao, Shilong

2015-01-01

Accurate estimation of forest biomass C stock is essential to understand carbon cycles. However, current estimates of Chinese forest biomass are mostly based on inventory-based timber volumes and empirical conversion factors at the provincial scale, which could introduce large uncertainties in forest biomass estimation. Here we provide a data-driven estimate of Chinese forest aboveground biomass from 2001 to 2013 at a spatial resolution of 1 km by integrating a recently reviewed plot-level ground-measured forest aboveground biomass database with geospatial information from 1-km Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) dataset in a machine learning algorithm (the model tree ensemble, MTE). We show that Chinese forest aboveground biomass is 8.56 Pg C, which is mainly contributed by evergreen needle-leaf forests and deciduous broadleaf forests. The mean forest aboveground biomass density is 56.1 Mg C ha−1, with high values observed in temperate humid regions. The responses of forest aboveground biomass density to mean annual temperature are closely tied to water conditions; that is, negative responses dominate regions with mean annual precipitation less than 1300 mm y−1 and positive responses prevail in regions with mean annual precipitation higher than 2800 mm y−1. During the 2000s, the forests in China sequestered C by 61.9 Tg C y−1, and this C sink is mainly distributed in north China and may be attributed to warming climate, rising CO2 concentration, N deposition, and growth of young forests. PMID:26115195

MODIS Based Estimation of Forest Aboveground Biomass in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Yin, Guodong; Zhang, Yuan; Sun, Yan; Wang, Tao; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Piao, Shilong

2015-01-01

Accurate estimation of forest biomass C stock is essential to understand carbon cycles. However, current estimates of Chinese forest biomass are mostly based on inventory-based timber volumes and empirical conversion factors at the provincial scale, which could introduce large uncertainties in forest biomass estimation. Here we provide a data-driven estimate of Chinese forest aboveground biomass from 2001 to 2013 at a spatial resolution of 1 km by integrating a recently reviewed plot-level ground-measured forest aboveground biomass database with geospatial information from 1-km Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) dataset in a machine learning algorithm (the model tree ensemble, MTE). We show that Chinese forest aboveground biomass is 8.56 Pg C, which is mainly contributed by evergreen needle-leaf forests and deciduous broadleaf forests. The mean forest aboveground biomass density is 56.1 Mg C ha-1, with high values observed in temperate humid regions. The responses of forest aboveground biomass density to mean annual temperature are closely tied to water conditions; that is, negative responses dominate regions with mean annual precipitation less than 1300 mm y-1 and positive responses prevail in regions with mean annual precipitation higher than 2800 mm y-1. During the 2000s, the forests in China sequestered C by 61.9 Tg C y-1, and this C sink is mainly distributed in north China and may be attributed to warming climate, rising CO2 concentration, N deposition, and growth of young forests.

2015-2016 Palila abundance estimates

Science.gov (United States)

Camp, Richard J.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Banko, Paul C.

2016-01-01

The palila (Loxioides bailleui) population was surveyed annually during 1998−2016 on Mauna Kea Volcano to determine abundance, population trend, and spatial distribution. In the latest surveys, the 2015 population was estimated at 852−1,406 birds (point estimate: 1,116) and the 2016 population was estimated at 1,494−2,385 (point estimate: 1,934). Similar numbers of palila were detected during the first and subsequent counts within each year during 2012−2016; the proportion of the total annual detections in each count ranged from 46% to 56%; and there was no difference in the detection probability due to count sequence. Furthermore, conducting repeat counts improved the abundance estimates by reducing the width of the confidence intervals between 9% and 32% annually. This suggests that multiple counts do not affect bird or observer behavior and can be continued in the future to improve the precision of abundance estimates. Five palila were detected on supplemental survey stations in the Ka‘ohe restoration area, outside the core survey area but still within Palila Critical Habitat (one in 2015 and four in 2016), suggesting that palila are present in habitat that is recovering from cattle grazing on the southwest slope. The average rate of decline during 1998−2016 was 150 birds per year. Over the 18-year monitoring period, the estimated rate of change equated to a 58% decline in the population.

Assessing the Adequacy of Probability Distributions for Estimating the Extreme Events of Air Temperature in Dabaa Region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

El-Shanshoury, Gh.I.

2015-01-01

Assessing the adequacy of probability distributions for estimating the extreme events of air temperature in Dabaa region is one of the pre-requisite s for any design purpose at Dabaa site which can be achieved by probability approach. In the present study, three extreme value distributions are considered and compared to estimate the extreme events of monthly and annual maximum and minimum temperature. These distributions include the Gumbel/Frechet distributions for estimating the extreme maximum values and Gumbel /Weibull distributions for estimating the extreme minimum values. Lieblein technique and Method of Moments are applied for estimating the distribution para meters. Subsequently, the required design values with a given return period of exceedance are obtained. Goodness-of-Fit tests involving Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson-Darling are used for checking the adequacy of fitting the method/distribution for the estimation of maximum/minimum temperature. Mean Absolute Relative Deviation, Root Mean Square Error and Relative Mean Square Deviation are calculated, as the performance indicators, to judge which distribution and method of parameters estimation are the most appropriate one to estimate the extreme temperatures. The present study indicated that the Weibull distribution combined with Method of Moment estimators gives the highest fit, most reliable, accurate predictions for estimating the extreme monthly and annual minimum temperature. The Gumbel distribution combined with Method of Moment estimators showed the highest fit, accurate predictions for the estimation of the extreme monthly and annual maximum temperature except for July, August, October and November. The study shows that the combination of Frechet distribution with Method of Moment is the most accurate for estimating the extreme maximum temperature in July, August and November months while t he Gumbel distribution and Lieblein technique is the best for October

Genetic parameters and estimated genetic gains in young rubber tree progenies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cecília Khusala Verardi

2013-04-01

Full Text Available The objective of this work was to assess the genetic parameters and to estimate genetic gains in young rubber tree progenies. The experiments were carried out during three years, in a randomized block design, with six replicates and ten plants per plot, in three representative Hevea crop regions of the state of São Paulo, Brazil. Twenty-two progenies were evaluated, from three to five years old, for rubber yield and annual girth growth. Genetic gain was estimated with the multi-effect index (MEI. Selection by progenies means provided greater estimated genetic gain than selection based on individuals, since heritability values of progeny means were greater than the ones of individual heritability, for both evaluated variables, in all the assessment years. The selection of the three best progenies for rubber yield provided a selection gain of 1.28 g per plant. The genetic gains estimated with MEI using data from early assessments (from 3 to 5-year-old were generally high for annual girth growth and rubber yield. The high genetic gains for annual girth growth in the first year of assessment indicate that progenies can be selected at the beginning of the breeding program. Population effective size was consistent with the three progenies selected, showing that they were not related and that the population genetic variability is ensured. Early selection with the genetic gains estimated by MEI can be made on rubber tree progenies.

A new NDVI measure that overcomes data sparsity in cloud-covered regions predicts annual variation in ground-based estimates of high arctic plant productivity

Science.gov (United States)

Rune Karlsen, Stein; Anderson, Helen B.; van der Wal, René; Bremset Hansen, Brage

2018-02-01

Efforts to estimate plant productivity using satellite data can be frustrated by the presence of cloud cover. We developed a new method to overcome this problem, focussing on the high-arctic archipelago of Svalbard where extensive cloud cover during the growing season can prevent plant productivity from being estimated over large areas. We used a field-based time-series (2000-2009) of live aboveground vascular plant biomass data and a recently processed cloud-free MODIS-Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data set (2000-2014) to estimate, on a pixel-by-pixel basis, the onset of plant growth. We then summed NDVI values from onset of spring to the average time of peak NDVI to give an estimate of annual plant productivity. This remotely sensed productivity measure was then compared, at two different spatial scales, with the peak plant biomass field data. At both the local scale, surrounding the field data site, and the larger regional scale, our NDVI measure was found to predict plant biomass (adjusted R 2 = 0.51 and 0.44, respectively). The commonly used ‘maximum NDVI’ plant productivity index showed no relationship with plant biomass, likely due to some years having very few cloud-free images available during the peak plant growing season. Thus, we propose this new summed NDVI from onset of spring to time of peak NDVI as a proxy of large-scale plant productivity for regions such as the Arctic where climatic conditions restrict the availability of cloud-free images.

Redefinition and global estimation of basal ecosystem respiration rate

Science.gov (United States)

Yuan, W.; Luo, Y.; Li, X.; Liu, S.; Yu, G.; Zhou, T.; Bahn, M.; Black, A.; Desai, A.R.; Cescatti, A.; Marcolla, B.; Jacobs, C.; Chen, J.; Aurela, M.; Bernhofer, C.; Gielen, B.; Bohrer, G.; Cook, D.R.; Dragoni, D.; Dunn, A.L.; Gianelle, D.; Grnwald, T.; Ibrom, A.; Leclerc, M.Y.; Lindroth, A.; Liu, H.; Marchesini, L.B.; Montagnani, L.; Pita, G.; Rodeghiero, M.; Rodrigues, A.; Starr, G.; Stoy, Paul C.

2011-01-01

Basal ecosystem respiration rate (BR), the ecosystem respiration rate at a given temperature, is a common and important parameter in empirical models for quantifying ecosystem respiration (ER) globally. Numerous studies have indicated that BR varies in space. However, many empirical ER models still use a global constant BR largely due to the lack of a functional description for BR. In this study, we redefined BR to be ecosystem respiration rate at the mean annual temperature. To test the validity of this concept, we conducted a synthesis analysis using 276 site-years of eddy covariance data, from 79 research sites located at latitudes ranging from ∼3°S to ∼70°N. Results showed that mean annual ER rate closely matches ER rate at mean annual temperature. Incorporation of site-specific BR into global ER model substantially improved simulated ER compared to an invariant BR at all sites. These results confirm that ER at the mean annual temperature can be considered as BR in empirical models. A strong correlation was found between the mean annual ER and mean annual gross primary production (GPP). Consequently, GPP, which is typically more accurately modeled, can be used to estimate BR. A light use efficiency GPP model (i.e., EC-LUE) was applied to estimate global GPP, BR and ER with input data from MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications) and MODIS (Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer). The global ER was 103 Pg C yr −1, with the highest respiration rate over tropical forests and the lowest value in dry and high-latitude areas.

26 CFR 1.6655-2 - Annualized income installment method.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... TAX (CONTINUED) INCOME TAXES Additions to the Tax, Additional Amounts, and Assessable Penalties § 1... equal to 100 percent of the tax computed on the annualized income for the 2-month period, the following... estimated tax were equal to 100 percent of the tax computed on the annualized income for the 4-month period...

Black sea annual and inter-annual water mass variations from space

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Yildiz, H.; Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Simav, M.

2011-01-01

influenced by the leakage of hydrological signals from the surrounding land. After applying the corresponding correction, we found a good agreement with water mass variations derived from steric-corrected satellite altimetry observations. Both GRACE and altimetry show significant annual water mass variations......This study evaluates the performance of two widely used GRACE solutions (CNES/GRGS RL02 and CSR RL04) in deriving annual and inter-annual water mass variations in the Black Sea for the period 2003–2007. It is demonstrated that the GRACE derived water mass variations in the Black Sea are heavily...

Survival Estimates for the Passage of Juvenile Salmonids through Snake River Dams and Reservoirs, 1997 Annual Report.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hockersmith, Eric E.

1999-03-01

This report consists of two parts describing research activities completed during 1997 under Bonneville Power Administration Project Number 93-29. Part 1 provides reach survival and travel time estimates for 1997 for PIT-tagged hatchery steelhead and yearling chinook salmon in the Snake and Columbia Rivers. The results are reported primarily in the form of tables and figures with a minimum of text. More detailed information on methodology and the statistical models used in the analysis are provided in previous annual reports cited in the text. Analysis of the relationships among travel time, survival, and environmental factors for 1997 and previous years of the study will be reported elsewhere. Part 2 of this report describes research to determine areas of loss and delay for juvenile hatchery salmonids above Lower Granite Reservoir.

Monthly paleostreamflow reconstruction from annual tree-ring chronologies

Science.gov (United States)

J. H. Stagge; D. E. Rosenberg; R. J. DeRose; T. M. Rittenour

2018-01-01

Paleoclimate reconstructions are increasingly used to characterize annual climate variability prior to the instrumental record, to improve estimates of climate extremes, and to provide a baseline for climate change projections. To date, paleoclimate records have seen limited engineering use to estimate hydrologic risks because water systems models and managers usually...

Feasibility of estimating generalized extreme-value distribution of floods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferreira de Queiroz, Manoel Moises

2004-01-01

Flood frequency analysis by generalized extreme-value probability distribution (GEV) has found increased application in recent years, given its flexibility in dealing with the three asymptotic forms of extreme distribution derived from different initial probability distributions. Estimation of higher quantiles of floods is usually accomplished by extrapolating one of the three inverse forms of GEV distribution fitted to the experimental data for return periods much higher than those actually observed. This paper studies the feasibility of fitting GEV distribution by moments of linear combinations of higher order statistics (LH moments) using synthetic annual flood series with varying characteristics and lengths. As the hydrologic events in nature such as daily discharge occur with finite values, their annual maximums are expected to follow the asymptotic form of the limited GEV distribution. Synthetic annual flood series were thus obtained from the stochastic sequences of 365 daily discharges generated by Monte Carlo simulation on the basis of limited probability distribution underlying the limited GEV distribution. The results show that parameter estimation by LH moments of this distribution, fitted to annual flood samples of less than 100-year length derived from initial limited distribution, may indicate any form of extreme-value distribution, not just the limited form as expected, and with large uncertainty in fitted parameters. A frequency analysis, on the basis of GEV distribution and LH moments, of annual flood series of lengths varying between 13 and 73 years observed at 88 gauge stations on Parana River in Brazil, indicated all the three forms of GEV distribution.(Author)

Use of eddy-covariance methods to "calibrate" simple estimators of evapotranspiration

Science.gov (United States)

Sumner, David M.; Geurink, Jeffrey S.; Swancar, Amy

2017-01-01

Direct measurement of actual evapotranspiration (ET) provides quantification of this large component of the hydrologic budget, but typically requires long periods of record and large instrumentation and labor costs. Simple surrogate methods of estimating ET, if “calibrated” to direct measurements of ET, provide a reliable means to quantify ET. Eddy-covariance measurements of ET were made for 12 years (2004-2015) at an unimproved bahiagrass (Paspalum notatum) pasture in Florida. These measurements were compared to annual rainfall derived from rain gage data and monthly potential ET (PET) obtained from a long-term (since 1995) U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) statewide, 2-kilometer, daily PET product. The annual proportion of ET to rainfall indicates a strong correlation (r2=0.86) to annual rainfall; the ratio increases linearly with decreasing rainfall. Monthly ET rates correlated closely (r2=0.84) to the USGS PET product. The results indicate that simple surrogate methods of estimating actual ET show positive potential in the humid Florida climate given the ready availability of historical rainfall and PET.

Kootenai River fisheries investigations: rainbow and bull trout recruitment: annual progress report 1999; ANNUAL

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Walters, Jody P.; Downs, Christopher Charles

2001-01-01

Our 1999 objectives were to determine sources of rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss and bull trout Salvelinus confluentus spawning and recruitment in the Idaho reach of the Kootenai River. We used a rotary-screw trap to capture juvenile trout to determine age at out-migration and to estimate total out-migration from the Boundary Creek drainage to the Kootenai River. The out-migrant estimate for March through August 1999 was 1,574 (95% C. I.= 825-3,283) juvenile rainbow trout. Most juveniles out-migrated at age-2 and age-3. No out-migrating bull trout were caught. Five of 17 rainbow trout radio-tagged in Idaho migrated upstream into Montana waters during the spawning season. Five bull trout originally radio-tagged in O'Brien Creek, Montana in early October moved downstream into Idaho and British Columbia by mid-October. Annual angler exploitation for the rainbow trout population upstream of Bonners Ferry, Idaho was estimated to be 58%. Multi-pass depletion estimates for index reaches of Caboose, Curley, and Debt creeks showed 0.20, 0.01, and 0.13 rainbow trout juveniles/m(sup 2), respectively. We estimated rainbow trout (180-415 mm TL) standing stock of 1.6 kg/ha for the Hemlock Bar reach (29.4 ha) of the Kootenai River, similar to the 1998 estimate. Recruitment of juvenile rainbow and bull trout from Idaho tributaries is not sufficient to be the sole source of subsequent older fish in the mainstem Kootenai River. These populations are at least partly dependent on recruitment from Montana waters. The low recruitment and high exploitation rate may be indicators of a rainbow trout population in danger of further decline

Proceedings of CanWEA's 24. annual conference and trade show : fast forward to wind

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

The Canadian Wind Energy Association's conference and trade show provides an annual forum for wind developers, wind turbine manufacturers, component suppliers and electric utility operators to discuss issues currently facing the wind industry and measures that must be taken to ensure its future growth in Canada. As part of a range of renewable energy initiatives designed to help Canada reach its target commitments for the Kyoto Protocol, the expansion of the wind industry is expected to reduce the country's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and provide significant economic benefits to local communities. However, the wind industry is facing a number of challenges and constraints due to a lack of clear policies from provincial and federal governments. Significant infrastructure investments and financial incentives will need to be put in place in order to provide a secure foundation for future growth. The conference was divided into 3 tracks: (1) wind energy enhancement in Canada; (2) trends in wind research and development; and (3) the business of wind. Presentations examined solutions related to wind energy integration with electricity grids and discussed methods of building social acceptance of wind projects in communities. Advances in forecasting and computerized simulations were presented, and methods of negotiating environmental assessments and planning permit requirements were discussed. The conference also included a small wind pre-conference that addressed issues related to the growth and manufacturing of small wind turbines in Canada. The conference featured 88 presentations, of which 69 have been catalogued separately for inclusion in this database. tabs., figs

Estimated radiation dose from timepieces containing tritium

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McDowell-Boyer, L.M.

1980-01-01

Luminescent timepieces containing radioactive tritium, either in elemental form or incorporated into paint, are available to the general public. The purpose of this study was to estimate potential radiation dose commitments received by the public annually as a result of exposure to tritium which may escape from the timepieces during their distribution, use, repair, and disposal. Much uncertainty is associated with final dose estimates due to limitations of empirical data from which exposure parameters were derived. Maximum individual dose estimates were generally less than 3 μSv/yr, but ranged up to 2 mSv under worst-case conditions postulated. Estimated annual collective (population) doses were less than 5 person/Sv per million timepieces distributed

Annual dose distribution of Nuclear Malaysia radiation workers for monitoring period from year 2003 to 2007

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hairul Nizam Idris; Azimawati Ahmad; Norain Ab Rahman

2008-08-01

Estimation of radiation dose (external exposure) received by Nuklear Malaysia's radiation workers are measured by using personal dosimetry device which are provided by SSDL-Nuklear Malaysia. Dose assessment report for monitoring period from year 2003 - 2007 shows that almost all radiation workers received annual doses less than 20 mSv, only in very small percentage of radiation workers received annual doses between 20.1 to 50 mSv and none of the workers received doses higher than 50 mSv/year. Exposure dose below 20 mSv/year (the new annual dose limit to be used in Malaysia soon) could be fully achieved by improving the compliance with the safety regulations and enhancing the awareness about radiation safety among the workers. (Author)

Thermal requirements and estimate of the annual number of generations of Frankliniella occidentalis (Pergande) (Thysanoptera: Thripidae) on strawberry crop

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nondillo, Aline; Redaelli, Luiza R.; Pinent, Silvia M.J.; Gitz, Rogerio

2008-01-01

Frankliniella occidentalis (Pergande) is one of the major strawberry pests in southern Brazil. The insect causes russeting and wither in flowers and fruits reducing commercial value. In this work, the thermal requirements of the eggs, larvae and pupae of F. occidentalis were estimated. Thrips development was studied in folioles of strawberry plants at six constant temperatures (16, 19, 22, 25, 28 and 31 deg C) in controlled conditions (70 +- 10% R.H. and 12:12 L:D). The number of annual generations of F. occidentalis was estimated for six strawberry production regions of Rio Grande do Sul State based on its thermal requirements. Developmental time of each F. occidentalis stages was proportional to the temperature increase. The best development rate was obtained when insects were reared at 25 deg C and 28 deg C. The lower threshold and the thermal requirements for the egg to adult stage were 9.9 deg C and 211.9 degree-days, respectively. Considering the thermal requirements of F. occidentalis, 10.7, 12.6, 13.1, 13.6, 16.5 and 17.9 generations/year were estimated, respectively, for Vacaria, Caxias do Sul, Farroupilha, Pelotas, Porto Alegre and Taquari producing regions located in Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil. (author)

Determination of major elements in annual tree rings by acid extraction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Belacy, N.; Abou EL-Nour, F.; Simpson, H.J.

1991-01-01

A method utilizing acid extraction of Na, K, Ca and Mg from the wood of annual growth rings of egyptian trees was executed. The method was applied on a Morus Alba tree located at Nile delta, northern of egypt. The acid extraction method includes the use of dilute nitric acid to extract the elements of the wood. The wood was soaked for one hour with continuous stirring at room temperature. Element contents of both leachant and ash of the extracted wood dissolved in 2N HNO 3 , were then estimated using an atomic absorption spectrophotometer. The method was optimized and led to an accurate determination of the elements in the wood of the examined tree rings. The results showed a difference in the level of these elements along the annual rings of the examined tree. The data obtained in this work can help in understanding the correlation between the concentration of these elements in the annual growth rings of the egyptian trees and the expected changes in the salinity of water of irrigation before and after the high dam project

Probabilistic estimates of drought impacts on agricultural production

Science.gov (United States)

Madadgar, Shahrbanou; AghaKouchak, Amir; Farahmand, Alireza; Davis, Steven J.

2017-08-01

Increases in the severity and frequency of drought in a warming climate may negatively impact agricultural production and food security. Unlike previous studies that have estimated agricultural impacts of climate condition using single-crop yield distributions, we develop a multivariate probabilistic model that uses projected climatic conditions (e.g., precipitation amount or soil moisture) throughout a growing season to estimate the probability distribution of crop yields. We demonstrate the model by an analysis of the historical period 1980-2012, including the Millennium Drought in Australia (2001-2009). We find that precipitation and soil moisture deficit in dry growing seasons reduced the average annual yield of the five largest crops in Australia (wheat, broad beans, canola, lupine, and barley) by 25-45% relative to the wet growing seasons. Our model can thus produce region- and crop-specific agricultural sensitivities to climate conditions and variability. Probabilistic estimates of yield may help decision-makers in government and business to quantitatively assess the vulnerability of agriculture to climate variations. We develop a multivariate probabilistic model that uses precipitation to estimate the probability distribution of crop yields. The proposed model shows how the probability distribution of crop yield changes in response to droughts. During Australia's Millennium Drought precipitation and soil moisture deficit reduced the average annual yield of the five largest crops.

Renewable energy annual 1995

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-12-01

The Renewable Energy Annual 1995 is the first in an expected series of annual reports the Energy Information Administration (EIA) intends to publish to provide a comprehensive assessment of renewable energy. This report presents the following information on the history, status, and prospects of renewable energy data: estimates of renewable resources; characterizations of renewable energy technologies; descriptions of industry infrastructures for individual technologies; evaluations of current market status; and assessments of near-term prospects for market growth. An international section is included, as well as two feature articles that discuss issues of importance for renewable energy as a whole. The report also contains a number of technical appendices and a glossary. The renewable energy sources included are biomass (wood), municipal solid waste, biomass-derived liquid fuels, geothermal, wind, and solar and photovoltaic

Renewable energy annual 1995

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1995-12-01

The Renewable Energy Annual 1995 is the first in an expected series of annual reports the Energy Information Administration (EIA) intends to publish to provide a comprehensive assessment of renewable energy. This report presents the following information on the history, status, and prospects of renewable energy data: estimates of renewable resources; characterizations of renewable energy technologies; descriptions of industry infrastructures for individual technologies; evaluations of current market status; and assessments of near-term prospects for market growth. An international section is included, as well as two feature articles that discuss issues of importance for renewable energy as a whole. The report also contains a number of technical appendices and a glossary. The renewable energy sources included are biomass (wood), municipal solid waste, biomass-derived liquid fuels, geothermal, wind, and solar and photovoltaic.

Petroleum supply annual 1994, Volume 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-06-01

The Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA) contains information on the supply and disposition of crude oil and petroleum products. The publication reflects data that were collected from the petroleum industry during 1994 through annual and monthly surveys. The PSA is divided into two volumes. This first volume contains four sections: Summary Statistics, Detailed Statistics, Refinery Capacity, and Oxygenate Capacity each with final annual data. The second volume contains final statistics for each month of 1994, and replaces data previously published in the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM). The tables in Volumes 1 and 2 are similarly numbered to facilitate comparison between them. Explanatory Notes, located at the end of this publication, present information describing data collection, sources, estimation methodology, data quality control procedures, modifications to reporting requirements and interpretation of tables. Industry terminology and product definitions are listed alphabetically in the Glossary

Climatic driving forces in inter-annual variation of global FPAR

Science.gov (United States)

Peng, Dailiang; Liu, Liangyun; Yang, Xiaohua; Zhou, Bin

2012-09-01

Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FPAR) characterizes vegetation canopy functioning and its energy absorption capacity. In this paper, we focus on climatic driving forces in inter-annual variation of global FPAR from 1982 to 2006 by Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN-Monthly) data. Using FPAR-Simple Ratio Vegetation Index (SR) relationship, Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was used to estimate FPAR at the global scale. The correlation between inter-annual variation of FPAR and temperature, precipitation derived from GHCN-Monthly was examined, during the periods of March-May (MAM), June-August (JJA), September-November (SON), and December-February (DJF) over from 1982 to 2006. The analysis of climatic influence on global FPAR revealed the significant correlation with temperature and precipitation in some meteorological stations area, and a more significant correlation with precipitation was found than which with temperature. Some stations in the regions between 30° N and 60° N and around 30° S in South America, where the annual FPAR variation showed a significant positive correlation with temperature (P forest of Africa and Amazon during the dry season of JJA and SON.

Estimation Terrestrial Net Primary Productivity Based on CASA Model: a Case Study in Minnan Urban Agglomeration, China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hua, L Z; Liu, H; Zhang, X L; Zheng, Y; Man, W; Yin, K

2014-01-01

Net Primary Productivity (NPP) is a key component of the terrestrial carbon cycle. The research of net primary productivity will help in understanding the amount of carbon fixed by terrestrial vegetation and its influencing factors. Model simulation is considered as a cost-effective and time-efficient method for the estimation of regional and global NPP. In the paper, a terrestrial biosphere model, CASA (Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach), was applied to estimate monthly NPP in Minnan urban agglomeration (i.e. Xiamen, Zhangzhou and Quanzhou cities) of Fujian province, China, in 2009 and 2010, by incorporating satellite observation of SPOT Vegetation NDVI data together with other climatic parameters and landuse map. The model estimates average annual terrestrial NPP of Minnan area as 16.3 million Mg C. NPP decreased from southwest to the northeast. The higher NPP values exceeding 720 gC·m − 2 ·a −1 showed in North Zhangzhou city and lower values under 500 gC·m − 2 ·a −1 showed in the some areas of northeast Quanzhou city. Seasonal variations of NPP were large. It was about 45% of the total annual NPP in the three months in summer, and the NPP values were very low in winter. From 2009 to 2010, the value of annual NPP showed a slightly decrease trend, approximately 7.8% because the annual temperature for 2010 decline 13.6% compared with 2009 in despite of an increase in rainfall of about 34.3%. The results indicate that temperature was a main limiting factor on vegetation growth, but water is not a limiting factor in the rainy area

Exploring the correlation between annual precipitation and potential evaporation

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, X.; Buchberger, S. G.

2017-12-01

The interdependence between precipitation and potential evaporation is closely related to the classic Budyko framework. In this study, a systematic investigation of the correlation between precipitation and potential evaporation at the annual time step is conducted at both point scale and watershed scale. The point scale precipitation and potential evaporation data over the period of 1984-2015 are collected from 259 weather stations across the United States. The watershed scale precipitation data of 203 watersheds across the United States are obtained from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) dataset from 1983 to 2002; and potential evaporation data of these 203 watersheds in the same period are obtained from a remote-sensing algorithm. The results show that majority of the weather stations (77%) and watersheds (79%) exhibit a statistically significant negative correlation between annual precipitation and annual potential evaporation. The aggregated data cloud of precipitation versus potential evaporation follows a curve based on the combination of the Budyko-type equation and Bouchet's complementary relationship. Our result suggests that annual precipitation and potential evaporation are not independent when both Budyko's hypothesis and Bouchet's hypothesis are valid. Furthermore, we find that the wet surface evaporation, which is controlled primarily by short wave radiation as defined in Bouchet's hypothesis, exhibits less dependence on precipitation than the potential evaporation. As a result, we suggest that wet surface evaporation is a better representation of energy supply than potential evaporation in the Budyko framework.

Exploring Simple Algorithms for Estimating Gross Primary Production in Forested Areas from Satellite Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ramakrishna R. Nemani

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Algorithms that use remotely-sensed vegetation indices to estimate gross primary production (GPP, a key component of the global carbon cycle, have gained a lot of popularity in the past decade. Yet despite the amount of research on the topic, the most appropriate approach is still under debate. As an attempt to address this question, we compared the performance of different vegetation indices from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS in capturing the seasonal and the annual variability of GPP estimates from an optimal network of 21 FLUXNET forest towers sites. The tested indices include the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI, Leaf Area Index (LAI, and Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation absorbed by plant canopies (FPAR. Our results indicated that single vegetation indices captured 50–80% of the variability of tower-estimated GPP, but no one index performed universally well in all situations. In particular, EVI outperformed the other MODIS products in tracking seasonal variations in tower-estimated GPP, but annual mean MODIS LAI was the best estimator of the spatial distribution of annual flux-tower GPP (GPP = 615 × LAI − 376, where GPP is in g C/m2/year. This simple algorithm rehabilitated earlier approaches linking ground measurements of LAI to flux-tower estimates of GPP and produced annual GPP estimates comparable to the MODIS 17 GPP product. As such, remote sensing-based estimates of GPP continue to offer a useful alternative to estimates from biophysical models, and the choice of the most appropriate approach depends on whether the estimates are required at annual or sub-annual temporal resolution.

Estimated cost of overactive bladder in Thailand.

Science.gov (United States)

Prasopsanti, Kriangsak; Santi-Ngamkun, Apirak; Pornprasit, Kanokwan

2007-11-01

To estimate the annual direct and indirect costs of overactive bladder (OAB) in indigenous Thai people aged 18 years and over in the year 2005. Economically based models using diagnostic and treatment algorithms from clinical practice guidelines and current disease prevalence data were used to estimate direct and indirect costs of OAB. Prevalence and event probability estimates were obtained from the literature, national data sets, and expert opinion. Costs were estimated from a small survey using a cost questionnaire and from unit costs of King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital. The annual cost of OAB in Thailand is estimated as 1.9 billion USD. It is estimated to consume 1.14% of national GDP The cost includes 0.33 billion USD for direct medical costs, 1.3 billion USD for direct, nonmedical costs and 0.29 billion USD for indirect costs of lost productivity. The largest costs category was direct treatment costs of comorbidities associated with OAB. Costs of OAB medication accountedfor 14% of the total costs ofOAB.

Monthly paleostreamflow reconstruction from annual tree-ring chronologies

Science.gov (United States)

Stagge, J. H.; Rosenberg, D. E.; DeRose, R. J.; Rittenour, T. M.

2018-02-01

Paleoclimate reconstructions are increasingly used to characterize annual climate variability prior to the instrumental record, to improve estimates of climate extremes, and to provide a baseline for climate-change projections. To date, paleoclimate records have seen limited engineering use to estimate hydrologic risks because water systems models and managers usually require streamflow input at the monthly scale. This study explores the hypothesis that monthly streamflows can be adequately modeled by statistically decomposing annual flow reconstructions. To test this hypothesis, a multiple linear regression model for monthly streamflow reconstruction is presented that expands the set of predictors to include annual streamflow reconstructions, reconstructions of global circulation, and potential differences among regional tree-ring chronologies related to tree species and geographic location. This approach is used to reconstruct 600 years of monthly streamflows at two sites on the Bear and Logan rivers in northern Utah. Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiencies remain above zero (0.26-0.60) for all months except April and Pearson's correlation coefficients (R) are 0.94 and 0.88 for the Bear and Logan rivers, respectively, confirming that the model can adequately reproduce monthly flows during the reference period (10/1942 to 9/2015). Incorporating a flexible transition between the previous and concurrent annual reconstructed flows was the most important factor for model skill. Expanding the model to include global climate indices and regional tree-ring chronologies produced smaller, but still significant improvements in model fit. The model presented here is the only approach currently available to reconstruct monthly streamflows directly from tree-ring chronologies and climate reconstructions, rather than using resampling of the observed record. With reasonable estimates of monthly flow that extend back in time many centuries, water managers can challenge systems models with a

Influence of sampling frequency and load calculation methods on quantification of annual river nutrient and suspended solids loads.

Science.gov (United States)

Elwan, Ahmed; Singh, Ranvir; Patterson, Maree; Roygard, Jon; Horne, Dave; Clothier, Brent; Jones, Geoffrey

2018-01-11

Better management of water quality in streams, rivers and lakes requires precise and accurate estimates of different contaminant loads. We assessed four sampling frequencies (2 days, weekly, fortnightly and monthly) and five load calculation methods (global mean (GM), rating curve (RC), ratio estimator (RE), flow-stratified (FS) and flow-weighted (FW)) to quantify loads of nitrate-nitrogen (NO 3 - -N), soluble inorganic nitrogen (SIN), total nitrogen (TN), dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP), total phosphorus (TP) and total suspended solids (TSS), in the Manawatu River, New Zealand. The estimated annual river loads were compared to the reference 'true' loads, calculated using daily measurements of flow and water quality from May 2010 to April 2011, to quantify bias (i.e. accuracy) and root mean square error 'RMSE' (i.e. accuracy and precision). The GM method resulted into relatively higher RMSE values and a consistent negative bias (i.e. underestimation) in estimates of annual river loads across all sampling frequencies. The RC method resulted in the lowest RMSE for TN, TP and TSS at monthly sampling frequency. Yet, RC highly overestimated the loads for parameters that showed dilution effect such as NO 3 - -N and SIN. The FW and RE methods gave similar results, and there was no essential improvement in using RE over FW. In general, FW and RE performed better than FS in terms of bias, but FS performed slightly better than FW and RE in terms of RMSE for most of the water quality parameters (DRP, TP, TN and TSS) using a monthly sampling frequency. We found no significant decrease in RMSE values for estimates of NO 3 - N, SIN, TN and DRP loads when the sampling frequency was increased from monthly to fortnightly. The bias and RMSE values in estimates of TP and TSS loads (estimated by FW, RE and FS), however, showed a significant decrease in the case of weekly or 2-day sampling. This suggests potential for a higher sampling frequency during flow peaks for more precise

Recharge estimation in semi-arid karst catchments: Central West Bank, Palestine

Science.gov (United States)

Jebreen, Hassan; Wohnlich, Stefan; Wisotzky, Frank; Banning, Andre; Niedermayr, Andrea; Ghanem, Marwan

2018-03-01

Knowledge of groundwater recharge constitutes a valuable tool for sustainable management in karst systems. In this respect, a quantitative evaluation of groundwater recharge can be considered a pre-requisite for the optimal operation of groundwater resources systems, particular for semi-arid areas. This paper demonstrates the processes affecting recharge in Palestine aquifers. The Central Western Catchment is one of the main water supply sources in the West Bank. Quantification of potential recharge rates are estimated using chloride mass balance (CMB) and empirical recharge equations over the catchment. The results showing the spatialized recharge rate, which ranges from 111-216 mm/year, representing 19-37% of the long-term mean annual rainfall. Using Water Balance models and climatological data (e. g. solar radiation, monthly temperature, average monthly relative humidity and precipitation), actual evapotranspiration (AET) is estimated. The mean annual actual evapotranspiration was about 66-70% of precipitation.

Multi-annual changes of NOx emissions in megacity regions: nonlinear trend analysis of satellite measurement based estimates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. P. Burrows

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Hazardous impact of air pollutant emissions from megacities on atmospheric composition on regional and global scales is currently an important issue in atmospheric research. However, the quantification of emissions and related effects is frequently a difficult task, especially in the case of developing countries, due to the lack of reliable data and information. This study examines possibilities to retrieve multi-annual NOx emissions changes in megacity regions from satellite measurements of nitrogen dioxide and to quantify them in terms of linear and nonlinear trends. By combining the retrievals of the GOME and SCIAMACHY satellite instrument data with simulations performed by the CHIMERE chemistry transport model, we obtain the time series of NOx emission estimates for the 12 largest urban agglomerations in Europe and the Middle East in the period from 1996 to 2008. We employ then a novel method allowing estimation of a nonlinear trend in a noisy time series of an observed variable. The method is based on the probabilistic approach and the use of artificial neural networks; it does not involve any quantitative a priori assumptions. As a result, statistically significant nonlinearities in the estimated NOx emission trends are detected in 5 megacities (Bagdad, Madrid, Milan, Moscow and Paris. Statistically significant upward linear trends are detected in Istanbul and Tehran, while downward linear trends are revealed in Berlin, London and the Ruhr agglomeration. The presence of nonlinearities in NOx emission changes in Milan, Paris and Madrid is confirmed by comparison of simulated NOx concentrations with independent air quality monitoring data. A good quantitative agreement between the linear trends in the simulated and measured near surface NOx concentrations is found in London.

Revised estimates of the annual net flux of carbon to the atmosphere from changes in land use and land management 1850-2000

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Houghton, R.A.

2003-01-01

Recent analyses of land-use change in the US and China, together with the latest estimates of tropical deforestation and afforestation from the FAO, were used to calculate a portion of the annual flux of carbon between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. The calculated flux includes only that portion of the flux resulting from direct human activity. In most regions, activities included the conversion of natural ecosystems to cultivated lands and pastures, including shifting cultivation, harvest of wood (for timber and fuel) and the establishment of tree plantations. In the US, woody encroachment and woodland thickening as a result of fire suppression were also included. The calculated flux of carbon does not include increases or decreases in carbon storage as a result of environmental changes (e.g.; increasing concentrations of CO 2 , N deposition, climatic change or pollution). Globally, the long-term (1850-2000) flux of carbon from changes in land use and management released 156 PgC to the atmosphere, about 60% of it from the tropics. Average annual fluxes during the 1980s and 1990s were 2.0 and 2.2 PgC/yr, respectively, dominated by releases of carbon from the tropics. Outside the tropics, the average net flux of carbon attributable to land-use change and management decreased from a source of 0.06 PgC/yr during the 1980s to a sink of 0.02 PgC/yr during the 1990s. According to the analyses summarized here, changes in land use were responsible for sinks in North America and Europe and for small sources in other non-tropical regions. The revisions were as large as 0.3 PgC/yr in individual regions but were largely offsetting, so that the global estimate for the 1980s was changed little from an earlier estimate. Uncertainties and recent improvements in the data used to calculate the flux of carbon from land-use change are reviewed, and the results are compared to other estimates of flux to evaluate the extent to which processes other than land-use change and

Natural radionuclides in the South Indian foods and their annual dose

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shanthi, G.; Thampi Thanka Kumaran, J.; Gnana Raj, G. Allan; Maniyan, C.G

2010-01-01

The study was carried out to evaluate the radioactivity concentration in the food crops grown in high-level natural radioactive area (HLNRA) in south west India. Food samples collected were analysed by means of a gamma spectroscopy and estimated annual dietary intakes of the radioisotopes 226 Ra, 228 Ra, 228 Th and 40 K. The annual intake of the food stuffs was estimated on the basis of their average annual consumption. Calculations were also made to determine the effective dose to an individual consuming such diets. The intakes of these radionuclides were calculated using the concentrations in south Indian foods and daily consumption rates of these foods. Daily intakes of these radionuclides were as follows: 226 Ra, 0.001-1.87; 228 Ra, 0.0023-1.26, 228 Th, 0.01-14.09 40 K, 0.46-49.39 Bq/day. The daily internal dose resulting from ingestion of radionuclides in food was 4.92 μSv/day and the annual dose was 1.79 mSv/yr. The radionuclides with highest consumption is 40 K.

Standardized ultrasound templates for diagnosing appendicitis reduce annual imaging costs.

Science.gov (United States)

Nordin, Andrew B; Sales, Stephen; Nielsen, Jason W; Adler, Brent; Bates, David Gregory; Kenney, Brian

2018-01-01

Ultrasound is preferred over computed tomography (CT) for diagnosing appendicitis in children to avoid undue radiation exposure. We previously reported our experience in instituting a standardized appendicitis ultrasound template, which decreased CT rates by 67.3%. In this analysis, we demonstrate the ongoing cost savings associated with using this template. Retrospective chart review for the time period preceding template implementation (June 2012-September 2012) was combined with prospective review through December 2015 for all patients in the emergency department receiving diagnostic imaging for appendicitis. The type of imaging was recorded, and imaging rates and ultrasound test statistics were calculated. Estimated annual imaging costs based on pretemplate ultrasound and CT utilization rates were compared with post-template annual costs to calculate annual and cumulative savings. In the pretemplate period, ultrasound and CT rates were 80.2% and 44.3%, respectively, resulting in a combined annual cost of $300,527.70. Similar calculations were performed for each succeeding year, accounting for changes in patient volume. Using pretemplate rates, our projected 2015 imaging cost was $371,402.86; however, our ultrasound rate had increased to 98.3%, whereas the CT rate declined to 9.6%, yielding an annual estimated cost of $224,853.00 and a savings of $146,549.86. Since implementation, annual savings have steadily increased for a cumulative cost savings of $336,683.83. Standardizing ultrasound reports for appendicitis not only reduces the use of CT scans and the associated radiation exposure but also decreases annual imaging costs despite increased numbers of imaging studies. Continued cost reduction may be possible by using diagnostic algorithms. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A neural network-based estimate of the seasonal to inter-annual variability of the Atlantic Ocean carbon sink

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Landschützer, P.; Gruber, N.; Bakker, D.C.E.

2013-01-01

The Atlantic Ocean is one of the most important sinks for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), but this sink is known to vary substantially in time. Here we use surface ocean CO2 observations to estimate this sink and the temporal variability from 1998 to 2007 in the Atlantic Ocean. We benefit from ......, leading to a substantial trend toward a stronger CO2 sink for the entire South Atlantic (–0.14 Pg C yr–1 decade–1). The Atlantic carbon sink varies relatively little on inter-annual time-scales (±0.04 Pg C yr–1; 1σ)......The Atlantic Ocean is one of the most important sinks for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), but this sink is known to vary substantially in time. Here we use surface ocean CO2 observations to estimate this sink and the temporal variability from 1998 to 2007 in the Atlantic Ocean. We benefit from (i...... poleward of 40° N, but many other parts of the North Atlantic increased more slowly, resulting in a barely changing Atlantic carbon sink north of the equator (–0.007 Pg C yr–1 decade–1). Surface ocean pCO2 was also increasing less than that of the atmosphere over most of the Atlantic south of the equator...

Inter-annual variations in water yield to lakes in northeastern Alberta: implications for estimating critical loads of acidity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roderick HAZEWINKEL

2010-08-01

Full Text Available Stable isotopes of water were applied to estimate water yield to fifty lakes in northeastern Alberta as part of an acid sensitivity study underway since 2002 in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region (AOSR. Herein, we apply site-specific water yields for each lake to calculate critical loads of acidity using water chemistry data and a steady-state water chemistry model. The main goal of this research was to improve site-specific critical load estimates and to understand the sensitivity to hydrologic variability across a Boreal Plains region under significant oil sands development pressure. Overall, catchment water yields were found to vary significantly over the seven year monitoring period, with distinct variations among lakes and between different regions, overprinted by inter-annual climate-driven shifts. Analysis of critical load estimates based on site-specific water yields suggests that caution must be applied to establish hydrologic conditions and define extremes at specific sites in order to protect more sensitive ecosystems. In general, lakes with low (high water yield tended to be more (less acid sensitive but were typically less (more affected by interannual hydrological variations. While it has been customary to use long-term water yields to define a static critical load for lakes, we find that spatial and temporal variability in water yield may limit effectiveness of this type of assessment in areas of the Boreal Plain characterized by heterogeneous runoff and without a long-term lake-gauging network. Implications for predicting acidification risk are discussed for the AOSR.

Estimating actual evapotranspiration for forested sites: modifications to the Thornthwaite Model

Science.gov (United States)

Randall K. Kolka; Ann T. Wolf

1998-01-01

A previously coded version of the Thornthwaite water balance model was used to estimate annual actual evapotranspiration (AET) for 29 forested sites between 1900 and 1993 in the Upper Great Lakes area. Approximately 8 percent of the data sets calculated AET in error. Errors were detected in months when estimated AET was greater than potential evapotranspiration. Annual...

A comparison of estimates of basin-scale soil-moisture evapotranspiration and estimates of riparian groundwater evapotranspiration with implications for water budgets in the Verde Valley, Central Arizona, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Tillman, Fred; Wiele, Stephen M.; Pool, Donald R.

2015-01-01

Population growth in the Verde Valley in Arizona has led to efforts to better understand water availability in the watershed. Evapotranspiration (ET) is a substantial component of the water budget and a critical factor in estimating groundwater recharge in the area. In this study, four estimates of ET are compared and discussed with applications to the Verde Valley. Higher potential ET (PET) rates from the soil-water balance (SWB) recharge model resulted in an average annual ET volume about 17% greater than for ET from the basin characteristics (BCM) recharge model. Annual BCM PET volume, however, was greater by about a factor of 2 or more than SWB actual ET (AET) estimates, which are used in the SWB model to estimate groundwater recharge. ET also was estimated using a method that combines MODIS-EVI remote sensing data and geospatial information and by the MODFLOW-EVT ET package as part of a regional groundwater-flow model that includes the study area. Annual ET volumes were about same for upper-bound MODIS-EVI ET for perennial streams as for the MODFLOW ET estimates, with the small differences between the two methods having minimal impact on annual or longer groundwater budgets for the study area.

An Annual Plant Growth Proxy in the Mojave Desert Using MODIS-EVI Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Wallace, Cynthia S A; Thomas, Kathryn A

2008-12-03

In the arid Mojave Desert, the phenological response of vegetation is largely dependent upon the timing and amount of rainfall, and maps of annual plant cover at any one point in time can vary widely. Our study developed relative annual plant growth models as proxies for annual plant cover using metrics that captured phenological variability in Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) satellite images. We used landscape phenologies revealed in MODIS data together with ecological knowledge of annual plant seasonality to develop a suite of metrics to describe annual growth on a yearly basis. Each of these metrics was applied to temporally-composited MODIS-EVI images to develop a relative model of annual growth. Each model was evaluated by testing how well it predicted field estimates of annual cover collected during 2003 and 2005 at the Mojave National Preserve. The best performing metric was the spring difference metric, which compared the average of three spring MODIS-EVI composites of a given year to that of 2002, a year of record drought. The spring difference metric showed correlations with annual plant cover of R² = 0.61 for 2005 and R² = 0.47 for 2003. Although the correlation is moderate, we consider it supportive given the characteristics of the field data, which were collected for a different study in a localized area and are not ideal for calibration to MODIS pixels. A proxy for annual growth potential was developed from the spring difference metric of 2005 for use as an environmental data layer in desert tortoise habitat modeling. The application of the spring difference metric to other imagery years presents potential for other applications such as fuels, invasive species, and dust-emission monitoring in the Mojave Desert.

An Annual Plant Growth Proxy in the Mojave Desert Using MODIS-EVI Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kathryn A. Thomas

2008-12-01

Full Text Available In the arid Mojave Desert, the phenological response of vegetation is largely dependent upon the timing and amount of rainfall, and maps of annual plant cover at any one point in time can vary widely. Our study developed relative annual plant growth models as proxies for annual plant cover using metrics that captured phenological variability in Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI satellite images. We used landscape phenologies revealed in MODIS data together with ecological knowledge of annual plant seasonality to develop a suite of metrics to describe annual growth on a yearly basis. Each of these metrics was applied to temporally-composited MODIS-EVI images to develop a relative model of annual growth. Each model was evaluated by testing how well it predicted field estimates of annual cover collected during 2003 and 2005 at the Mojave National Preserve. The best performing metric was the spring difference metric, which compared the average of three spring MODIS-EVI composites of a given year to that of 2002, a year of record drought. The spring difference metric showed correlations with annual plant cover of R2 = 0.61 for 2005 and R2 = 0.47 for 2003. Although the correlation is moderate, we consider it supportive given the characteristics of the field data, which were collected for a different study in a localized area and are not ideal for calibration to MODIS pixels. A proxy for annual growth potential was developed from the spring difference metric of 2005 for use as an environmental data layer in desert tortoise habitat modeling. The application of the spring difference metric to other imagery years presents potential for other applications such as fuels, invasive species, and dust-emission monitoring in the Mojave Desert.

Estimating the cost of a smoking employee.

Science.gov (United States)

Berman, Micah; Crane, Rob; Seiber, Eric; Munur, Mehmet

2014-09-01

We attempted to estimate the excess annual costs that a US private employer may attribute to employing an individual who smokes tobacco as compared to a non-smoking employee. Reviewing and synthesising previous literature estimating certain discrete costs associated with smoking employees, we developed a cost estimation approach that approximates the total of such costs for U.S. employers. We examined absenteeism, presenteesim, smoking breaks, healthcare costs and pension benefits for smokers. Our best estimate of the annual excess cost to employ a smoker is $5816. This estimate should be taken as a general indicator of the extent of excess costs, not as a predictive point value. Employees who smoke impose significant excess costs on private employers. The results of this study may help inform employer decisions about tobacco-related policies. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Areva, annual report 2004

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2004-07-01

This annual report contains information on AREVA objectives, prospects and strategies, particularly in chapters 4 and 7. This information is a not meant as a presentation of past performance data and should not be interpreted as a guarantee that events or data set forth herein are assured or that objectives will be met. Forward looking statements made in this document also address known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that could, were they to translate into fact, cause AREVA future financial performance, operating performance and production to differ significantly from the objectives presented or suggested herein. Those factors include, in particular, changes in international, economic or market conditions, as well as risk factors presented in Section 4.14.3. Neither AREVA nor the AREVA group is committing to updating forward looking statements or information contained in the annual report. This annual report contains information on the markets, market shares and competitive position of the AREVA group. Unless otherwise indicated, all historical data and forward looking information are based on Group estimates (source: AREVA) and are provided as examples only. To AREVA knowledge, no report is available on the AREVA group markets that is sufficiently complete or objective to serve as a sole reference source. The AREVA group developed estimates based on several sources, including in-house studies and reports, statistics provided by international organizations and professional associations, data published by competitors and information collected by AREVA subsidiaries. The main sources, studies and reports used include (i) the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the International Energy Agency (IEA), the World Nuclear Association (WNA), the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEA), Nuclear Assurance Corporation (NAC), the European Atomic Energy Community (Euratom) and the Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique (CEA) for the nuclear business; and (ii) the

Areva, annual report 2004

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-01-01

This annual report contains information on AREVA objectives, prospects and strategies, particularly in chapters 4 and 7. This information is a not meant as a presentation of past performance data and should not be interpreted as a guarantee that events or data set forth herein are assured or that objectives will be met. Forward looking statements made in this document also address known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that could, were they to translate into fact, cause AREVA future financial performance, operating performance and production to differ significantly from the objectives presented or suggested herein. Those factors include, in particular, changes in international, economic or market conditions, as well as risk factors presented in Section 4.14.3. Neither AREVA nor the AREVA group is committing to updating forward looking statements or information contained in the annual report. This annual report contains information on the markets, market shares and competitive position of the AREVA group. Unless otherwise indicated, all historical data and forward looking information are based on Group estimates (source: AREVA) and are provided as examples only. To AREVA knowledge, no report is available on the AREVA group markets that is sufficiently complete or objective to serve as a sole reference source. The AREVA group developed estimates based on several sources, including in-house studies and reports, statistics provided by international organizations and professional associations, data published by competitors and information collected by AREVA subsidiaries. The main sources, studies and reports used include (i) the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the International Energy Agency (IEA), the World Nuclear Association (WNA), the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEA), Nuclear Assurance Corporation (NAC), the European Atomic Energy Community (Euratom) and the Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique (CEA) for the nuclear business; and (ii) the

Areva, annual report 2004

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2004-07-01

This annual report contains information on AREVA objectives, prospects and strategies, particularly in chapters 4 and 7. This information is a not meant as a presentation of past performance data and should not be interpreted as a guarantee that events or data set forth herein are assured or that objectives will be met. Forward looking statements made in this document also address known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that could, were they to translate into fact, cause AREVA future financial performance, operating performance and production to differ significantly from the objectives presented or suggested herein. Those factors include, in particular, changes in international, economic or market conditions, as well as risk factors presented in Section 4.14.3. Neither AREVA nor the AREVA group is committing to updating forward looking statements or information contained in the annual report. This annual report contains information on the markets, market shares and competitive position of the AREVA group. Unless otherwise indicated, all historical data and forward looking information are based on Group estimates (source: AREVA) and are provided as examples only. To AREVA knowledge, no report is available on the AREVA group markets that is sufficiently complete or objective to serve as a sole reference source. The AREVA group developed estimates based on several sources, including in-house studies and reports, statistics provided by international organizations and professional associations, data published by competitors and information collected by AREVA subsidiaries. The main sources, studies and reports used include (i) the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the International Energy Agency (IEA), the World Nuclear Association (WNA), the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEA), Nuclear Assurance Corporation (NAC), the European Atomic Energy Community (Euratom) and the Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique (CEA) for the nuclear business; and (ii

Summary of groundwater-recharge estimates for Pennsylvania

Science.gov (United States)

Stuart O. Reese,; Risser, Dennis W.

2010-01-01

Groundwater recharge is water that infiltrates through the subsurface to the zone of saturation beneath the water table. Because recharge is a difficult parameter to quantify, it is typically estimated from measurements of other parameters like streamflow and precipitation. This report provides a general overview of processes affecting recharge in Pennsylvania and presents estimates of recharge rates from studies at various scales.The most common method for estimating recharge in Pennsylvania has been to estimate base flow from measurements of streamflow and assume that base flow (expressed in inches over the basin) approximates recharge. Statewide estimates of mean annual groundwater recharge were developed by relating base flow to basin characteristics of HUC10 watersheds (a fifth-level classification that uses 10 digits to define unique hydrologic units) using a regression equation. The regression analysis indicated that mean annual precipitation, average daily maximum temperature, percent of sand in soil, percent of carbonate rock in the watershed, and average stream-channel slope were significant factors in the explaining the variability of groundwater recharge across the Commonwealth.Several maps are included in this report to illustrate the principal factors affecting recharge and provide additional information about the spatial distribution of recharge in Pennsylvania. The maps portray the patterns of precipitation, temperature, prevailing winds across Pennsylvania’s varied physiography; illustrate the error associated with recharge estimates; and show the spatial variability of recharge as a percent of precipitation. National, statewide, regional, and local values of recharge, based on numerous studies, are compiled to allow comparison of estimates from various sources. Together these plates provide a synopsis of groundwater-recharge estimations and factors in Pennsylvania.Areas that receive the most recharge are typically those that get the most

Assessing the effects of land-use changes on annual average gross erosion

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Armando Brath

2002-01-01

Full Text Available The effects of land-use changes on potential annual gross erosion in the uplands of the Emilia-Romagna administrative region, a broad geographical area of some 22 000 km2 in northern-central Italy, have been analysed by application of the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE. The presence of an extended mountain chain, particularly subject to soil erosion, makes the estimation of annual gross erosion relevant in defining regional soil-conservation strategies. The USLE, derived empirically for plots, is usually applied at the basin scale. In the present study, the method is implemented in a distributed framework for the hilly and mountainous portion of Emilia-Romagna through a discretisation of the region into elementary square cells. The annual gross erosion is evaluated by combining morphological, pedological and climatic information. The stream network and the tributary area drained by each elementary cell, which are needed for the local application of the USLE, are derived automatically from a Digital Elevation Model (DEM of grid size 250 x 250 m. The rainfall erosivity factor is evaluated from local estimates of rainfall of six-hour storm duration and two-year return period. The soil erodibility and slope length-steepness factors are derived from digital maps of land use, pedology and geomorphology. Furthermore, historical land-use maps of the district of Bologna (a large portion — 3720 km2 — of the area under study, allow the effect of actual land use changes on the soil erosion process to be assessed. The analysis shows the influence of land-use changes on annual gross erosion as well as the increasing vulnerability of upland areas to soil erosion processes during recent decades. Keywords: USLE, gross erosion, distributed modelling, land use changes, northern-central Italy

Petroleum marketing annual 1994

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1995-08-24

The Petroleum Marketing Annual (PMA) provides information and statistical data on a variety of crude oils and refined petroleum products. The publication presents statistics on crude oil costs and refined petroleum products sales for use by industry, government, private sector analysis, educational institutions, and consumers. Data on crude oil include the domestic first purchase price, the fob and landed cost of imported crude oil, and the refiners` acquisition cost of crude oil. Refined petroleum product sales data include motor gasoline, distillates, residuals, aviation fuels, kerosene, and propane. The Petroleum Marketing Division, Office of Oil and Gas, Energy Information Administration ensures the accuracy, quality, and confidentiality of the published data in the Petroleum Marketing Annual. For this production, all estimates have been recalculated since their earlier publication in the Petroleum Marketing Monthly (PMM). These calculations made use of additional data and corrections that were received after the PMM publication date.

Petroleum marketing annual 1994

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-01-01

The Petroleum Marketing Annual (PMA) provides information and statistical data on a variety of crude oils and refined petroleum products. The publication presents statistics on crude oil costs and refined petroleum products sales for use by industry, government, private sector analysis, educational institutions, and consumers. Data on crude oil include the domestic first purchase price, the fob and landed cost of imported crude oil, and the refiners' acquisition cost of crude oil. Refined petroleum product sales data include motor gasoline, distillates, residuals, aviation fuels, kerosene, and propane. The Petroleum Marketing Division, Office of Oil and Gas, Energy Information Administration ensures the accuracy, quality, and confidentiality of the published data in the Petroleum Marketing Annual. For this production, all estimates have been recalculated since their earlier publication in the Petroleum Marketing Monthly (PMM). These calculations made use of additional data and corrections that were received after the PMM publication date

Estimating the cost to U.S. health departments to conduct HIV surveillance.

Science.gov (United States)

Shrestha, Ram K; Sansom, Stephanie L; Laffoon, Benjamin T; Farnham, Paul G; Shouse, R Luke; MacMaster, Karen; Hall, H Irene

2014-01-01

HIV case surveillance is a primary source of information for monitoring HIV burden in the United States and guiding the allocation of prevention and treatment funds. While the number of people living with HIV and the need for surveillance data have increased, little is known about the cost of surveillance. We estimated the economic cost to health departments of conducting high-quality HIV case surveillance. We collected primary data on the unit cost and quantity of resources used to operate the HIV case surveillance program in Michigan, where HIV burden (i.e., the number of HIV cases) is moderate to high (n=14,864 cases). Based on Michigan's data, we projected the expected annual HIV surveillance cost for U.S., state, local, and territorial health departments. We based our cost projection on the variation in the number of new and established cases, area-specific wages, and potential economies of scale. We estimated the annual total HIV surveillance cost to the Michigan health department to be $1,286,524 ($87/case), the annual total cost of new cases to be $108,657 ($133/case), and the annual total cost of established cases to be $1,177,867 ($84/case). Our projected median annual HIV surveillance cost per health department ranged from $210,600 in low-HIV burden sites to $1,835,000 in high-HIV burden sites. Our analysis shows that a systematic approach to costing HIV surveillance at the health department level is feasible. For HIV surveillance, a substantial portion of total surveillance costs is attributable to maintaining established cases.

A flexible fuzzy regression algorithm for forecasting oil consumption estimation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Azadeh, A.; Khakestani, M.; Saberi, M.

2009-01-01

Oil consumption plays a vital role in socio-economic development of most countries. This study presents a flexible fuzzy regression algorithm for forecasting oil consumption based on standard economic indicators. The standard indicators are annual population, cost of crude oil import, gross domestic production (GDP) and annual oil production in the last period. The proposed algorithm uses analysis of variance (ANOVA) to select either fuzzy regression or conventional regression for future demand estimation. The significance of the proposed algorithm is three fold. First, it is flexible and identifies the best model based on the results of ANOVA and minimum absolute percentage error (MAPE), whereas previous studies consider the best fitted fuzzy regression model based on MAPE or other relative error results. Second, the proposed model may identify conventional regression as the best model for future oil consumption forecasting because of its dynamic structure, whereas previous studies assume that fuzzy regression always provide the best solutions and estimation. Third, it utilizes the most standard independent variables for the regression models. To show the applicability and superiority of the proposed flexible fuzzy regression algorithm the data for oil consumption in Canada, United States, Japan and Australia from 1990 to 2005 are used. The results show that the flexible algorithm provides accurate solution for oil consumption estimation problem. The algorithm may be used by policy makers to accurately foresee the behavior of oil consumption in various regions.

Annual Status Report (FY2014) 200 West and 200 East Performance Assessments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nichols, W. E. [CH2M Hill Plateau Remediation Company, Richland, WA (United States); Khaleel, R. [INTERA, Inc., Austin, TX (United States); Mehta, S. [CH2M Hill Plateau Remediation Company, Richland, WA (United States)

2015-03-24

This annual review provides the projected dose estimates of radionuclide inventories disposed in the active Low-Level Waste Burial Grounds (LLBGs) since September 26, 1988. These estimates are calculated using the original does methodology developed in the performance assessment analyses.

Effect of quantity and composition of waste on the prediction of annual methane potential from landfills.

Science.gov (United States)

Cho, Han Sang; Moon, Hee Sun; Kim, Jae Young

2012-04-01

A study was conducted to investigate the effect of waste composition change on the methane production in landfills. An empirical equation for the methane potential of the mixed waste is derived based on the methane potential values of individual waste components and the compositional ratio of waste components. A correction factor was introduced in the equation and was determined from the BMP and lysimeter tests. The equation and LandGEM were applied for a full size landfill and the annual methane potential was estimated. Results showed that the changes in quantity of waste affected the annual methane potential from the landfill more than the changes of waste composition. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Natural radionuclides in the South Indian foods and their annual dose

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shanthi, G., E-mail: shanthidickson@gmail.co [Department of Physics, Women' s Christian College, Nagercoil 629001, Tamil Nadu (India); Thampi Thanka Kumaran, J. [Department of Physics, NM Christian College, Marthandam 629165, Tamil Nadu (India); Gnana Raj, G. Allan [Department of Chemistry and Research Centre, Scott Christian College, Nagercoil 629003, Tamil Nadu (India); Maniyan, C.G [Health Physics Unit, Indian Rare Earths, Manavalakurichi 629252, Tamil Nadu (India)

2010-07-21

The study was carried out to evaluate the radioactivity concentration in the food crops grown in high-level natural radioactive area (HLNRA) in south west India. Food samples collected were analysed by means of a gamma spectroscopy and estimated annual dietary intakes of the radioisotopes {sup 226}Ra, {sup 228}Ra, {sup 228}Th and {sup 40}K. The annual intake of the food stuffs was estimated on the basis of their average annual consumption. Calculations were also made to determine the effective dose to an individual consuming such diets. The intakes of these radionuclides were calculated using the concentrations in south Indian foods and daily consumption rates of these foods. Daily intakes of these radionuclides were as follows: {sup 226}Ra, 0.001-1.87; {sup 228}Ra, 0.0023-1.26, {sup 228}Th, 0.01-14.09 {sup 40}K, 0.46-49.39 Bq/day. The daily internal dose resulting from ingestion of radionuclides in food was 4.92 {mu}Sv/day and the annual dose was 1.79 mSv/yr. The radionuclides with highest consumption is {sup 40}K.

Average monthly and annual climate maps for Bolivia

KAUST Repository

Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M.

2015-02-24

This study presents monthly and annual climate maps for relevant hydroclimatic variables in Bolivia. We used the most complete network of precipitation and temperature stations available in Bolivia, which passed a careful quality control and temporal homogenization procedure. Monthly average maps at the spatial resolution of 1 km were modeled by means of a regression-based approach using topographic and geographic variables as predictors. The monthly average maximum and minimum temperatures, precipitation and potential exoatmospheric solar radiation under clear sky conditions are used to estimate the monthly average atmospheric evaporative demand by means of the Hargreaves model. Finally, the average water balance is estimated on a monthly and annual scale for each 1 km cell by means of the difference between precipitation and atmospheric evaporative demand. The digital layers used to create the maps are available in the digital repository of the Spanish National Research Council.

Multichannel Singular Spectrum Analysis in the Estimates of Common Environmental Effects Affecting GPS Observations

Science.gov (United States)

Gruszczynska, Marta; Rosat, Severine; Klos, Anna; Gruszczynski, Maciej; Bogusz, Janusz

2018-03-01

We described a spatio-temporal analysis of environmental loading models: atmospheric, continental hydrology, and non-tidal ocean changes, based on multichannel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA). We extracted the common annual signal for 16 different sections related to climate zones: equatorial, arid, warm, snow, polar and continents. We used the loading models estimated for a set of 229 ITRF2014 (International Terrestrial Reference Frame) International GNSS Service (IGS) stations and discussed the amount of variance explained by individual modes, proving that the common annual signal accounts for 16, 24 and 68% of the total variance of non-tidal ocean, atmospheric and hydrological loading models, respectively. Having removed the common environmental MSSA seasonal curve from the corresponding GPS position time series, we found that the residual station-specific annual curve modelled with the least-squares estimation has the amplitude of maximum 2 mm. This means that the environmental loading models underestimate the seasonalities observed by the GPS system. The remaining signal present in the seasonal frequency band arises from the systematic errors which are not of common environmental or geophysical origin. Using common mode error (CME) estimates, we showed that the direct removal of environmental loading models from the GPS series causes an artificial loss in the CME power spectra between 10 and 80 cycles per year. When environmental effect is removed from GPS series with MSSA curves, no influence on the character of spectra of CME estimates was noticed.

A Global Geospatial Ecosystem Services Estimate of Urban Agriculture

Science.gov (United States)

Clinton, Nicholas; Stuhlmacher, Michelle; Miles, Albie; Uludere Aragon, Nazli; Wagner, Melissa; Georgescu, Matei; Herwig, Chris; Gong, Peng

2018-01-01

Though urban agriculture (UA), defined here as growing of crops in cities, is increasing in popularity and importance globally, little is known about the aggregate benefits of such natural capital in built-up areas. Here, we introduce a quantitative framework to assess global aggregate ecosystem services from existing vegetation in cities and an intensive UA adoption scenario based on data-driven estimates of urban morphology and vacant land. We analyzed global population, urban, meteorological, terrain, and Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) datasets in Google Earth Engine to derive global scale estimates, aggregated by country, of services provided by UA. We estimate the value of four ecosystem services provided by existing vegetation in urban areas to be on the order of 33 billion annually. We project potential annual food production of 100-180 million tonnes, energy savings ranging from 14 to 15 billion kilowatt hours, nitrogen sequestration between 100,000 and 170,000 tonnes, and avoided storm water runoff between 45 and 57 billion cubic meters annually. In addition, we estimate that food production, nitrogen fixation, energy savings, pollination, climate regulation, soil formation and biological control of pests could be worth as much as 80-160 billion annually in a scenario of intense UA implementation. Our results demonstrate significant country-to-country variability in UA-derived ecosystem services and reduction of food insecurity. These estimates represent the first effort to consistently quantify these incentives globally, and highlight the relative spatial importance of built environments to act as change agents that alleviate mounting concerns associated with global environmental change and unsustainable development.

Tropical dendrochemistry: A novel approach to estimate age and growth from ringless trees

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Poussart, P.; Myneni, S.; Lanzirotti, A.

2006-01-01

Although tropical forests play an active role in the global carbon cycle and climate, their growth history remains poorly characterized compared to other ecosystems on the planet. Trees are prime candidates for the extraction of paleoclimate archives as they can be probed sub-annually, are widely distributed and can live for over 1400 years. However, dendrochronological techniques have found limited applications in the tropics because trees often lack visible growth rings. Alternative methods exist (dendrometry, radio- and stable isotopes), but the derived records are either of short-duration, lack seasonal resolution or are prohibitively labor intensive to produce. Here, we show the first X-ray microprobe synchrotron record of calcium (Ca) from a ringless Miliusa velutina tree from Thailand and use it to estimate the tree's age and growth history. The Ca age model agrees within (le)2 years of bomb-radiocarbon age estimates and confirms that the cycles are seasonal. The amplitude of the Ca annual cycle is correlated significantly with growth and annual Ca maxima correlate with the amount of dry season rainfall. Synchrotron measurements are fast and producing sufficient numbers of replicated multi-century tropical dendrochemical climate records now seems analytically feasible

Effect on the annual atmospheric dispersion factor of different diffusion parameters and meteorological data at nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hu Erbang; Yan Jiangyu; Wang Han; Xin Cuntian

2003-01-01

Based on the hourly metrological observing data of 100 m high tower during 1997-1999 at Tianwan Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) site and 1995-1997 in Fujian Huian NPP site, the effect on the annual atmospheric dispersion factor (AADF) of four different diffusion parameters (on-site measuring values, IAEA's, Briggs's and Pasquill's) are estimated. The analysis shows that the deviation between the results from IAEA's, Briggs's and on-site measured diffusion parameters is less than 20%. The effect on the AADF from different years' meteorological data also is estimated. (authors)

Annual, semi-annual and ter-annual variations of gravity wave momentum flux in 13 years of SABER data

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Dan; Preusse, Peter; Ern, Manfred; Strube, Cornelia

2017-04-01

In this study, the variations at different time scales such as the annual cycle, the semiannual oscillation (SAO), the ter-annual cycle (about four monthly) and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in zonal mean GW amplitudes and GW momentum flux (GWMF) have been investigated using satellite observations from 2002-2014 and combining ECMWF high resolution data with the GORGRAT model. The global distribution (patterns) of spectral amplitudes of GW momentum flux in stratosphere and mesosphere (from 30 km to 90 km) show that the annual cycle is the most predominant variation, and then are SAO, ter-annual cycle and QBO. For annual components, two relatively isolated amplitude maxima appear in each hemisphere: a subtropical maximum is associated with convective sources in summer, a mid and high latitude maximum is associated with the polar vortex in winter. In the subtropics, GWs propagate upward obliquely to the higher latitudes. The winter maximum in the southern hemisphere has larger momentum flux than that one in the northern hemisphere. While on the SH the phase (i.e. time corresponding to the maximum GWMF) continuously descends with the maximum in July in the upper mesosphere and in September in the lower stratosphere, on the northern hemisphere, the phase has no visible altitude dependence with a maximum in December. For semiannual variations, in the MLT (70-80 km) region, there is an obvious enhancement of spectral amplitude at equatorial latitudes which relate to the dissipation of convectively forced GWs. The SAO in absolute momentum flux and the annual cycle in zonal momentum flux indicated that the variations at mid-latitudes (about from 30°-40°) are not a SAO signals but rather an annual cycle when the direction of GWMF is considered. The ter-annual cycle may be related to the duration of active convection in subtropical latitudes (from June to Sep. in north hemisphere) Indications for QBO are found latitude extension to mid-latitudes in stratosphere of

Exploring Mean Annual Precipitation Values (2003–2012 in a Specific Area (36°N–43°N, 113°E–120°E Using Meteorological, Elevational, and the Nearest Distance to Coastline Variables

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fushen Zhang

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Gathering very accurate spatially explicit data related to the distribution of mean annual precipitation is required when laying the groundwork for the prevention and mitigation of water-related disasters. In this study, four Bayesian maximum entropy (BME models were compared to estimate the spatial distribution of mean annual precipitation of the selected areas. Meteorological data from 48 meteorological stations were used, and spatial correlations between three meteorological factors and two topological factors were analyzed to improve the mapping results including annual precipitation, average temperature, average water vapor pressure, elevation, and distance to coastline. Some missing annual precipitation data were estimated based on their historical probability distribution and were assimilated as soft data in the BME method. Based on this, the univariate BME, multivariate BME, univariate BME with soft data, and multivariate BME with soft data analysis methods were compared. The estimation accuracy was assessed by cross-validation with the mean error (ME, mean absolute error (MAE, and root mean square error (RMSE. The results showed that multivariate BME with soft data outperformed the other methods, indicating that adding the spatial correlations between multivariate factors and soft data can help improve the estimation performance.

Continuous Estimates of Surface Density and Annual Snow Accumulation with Multi-Channel Snow/Firn Penetrating Radar in the Percolation Zone, Western Greenland Ice Sheet

Science.gov (United States)

Meehan, T.; Marshall, H. P.; Bradford, J.; Hawley, R. L.; Osterberg, E. C.; McCarthy, F.; Lewis, G.; Graeter, K.

2017-12-01

A priority of ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB) prediction is ascertaining the surface density and annual snow accumulation. These forcing data can be supplied into firn compaction models and used to tune Regional Climate Models (RCM). RCMs do not accurately capture subtle changes in the snow accumulation gradient. Additionally, leading RCMs disagree among each other and with accumulation studies in regions of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) over large distances and temporal scales. RCMs tend to yield inconsistencies over GrIS because of sparse and outdated validation data in the reanalysis pool. Greenland Traverse for Accumulation and Climate Studies (GreenTrACS) implemented multi-channel 500 MHz Radar in multi-offset configuration throughout two traverse campaigns totaling greater than 3500 km along the western percolation zone of GrIS. The multi-channel radar has the capability of continuously estimating snow depth, average density, and annual snow accumulation, expressed at 95% confidence (+-) 0.15 m, (+-) 17 kgm-3, (+-) 0.04 m w.e. respectively, by examination of the primary reflection return from the previous year's summer surface.

Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE): 2010 Highlights

Science.gov (United States)

US Census Bureau, 2011

2011-01-01

This document presents 2010 data from the Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE) program of the U.S. Census Bureau. The SAIPE program produces poverty estimates for the total population and median household income estimates annually for all counties and states. SAIPE data also produces single-year poverty estimates for the school-age…

Climatic and biotic controls on annual carbon storage in Amazonian ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Tian, H.; Melillo, J.M.; Kicklighter, D.W.; McGuire, A.D.; Helfrich, J.; Moore, B.; Vorosmarty, C.J.

2000-01-01

1 The role of undisturbed tropical land ecosystems in the global carbon budget is not well understood. It has been suggested that inter-annual climate variability can affect the capacity of these ecosystems to store carbon in the short term. In this paper, we use a transient version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) to estimate annual carbon storage in undisturbed Amazonian ecosystems during the period 1980-94, and to understand the underlying causes of the year-to-year variations in net carbon storage for this region. 2 We estimate that the total carbon storage in the undisturbed ecosystems of the Amazon Basin in 1980 was 127.6 Pg C, with about 94.3 Pg C in vegetation and 33.3 Pg C in the reactive pool of soil organic carbon. About 83% of the total carbon storage occurred in tropical evergreen forests. Based on our model's results, we estimate that, over the past 15 years, the total carbon storage has increased by 3.1 Pg C (+ 2%), with a 1.9-Pg C (+2%) increase in vegetation carbon and a 1.2-Pg C (+4%) increase in reactive soil organic carbon. The modelled results indicate that the largest relative changes in net carbon storage have occurred in tropical deciduous forests, but that the largest absolute changes in net carbon storage have occurred in the moist and wet forests of the Basin. 3 Our results show that the strength of interannual variations in net carbon storage of undisturbed ecosystems in the Amazon Basin varies from a carbon source of 0.2 Pg C/year to a carbon sink of 0.7 Pg C/year. Precipitation, especially the amount received during the drier months, appears to be a major controller of annual net carbon storage in the Amazon Basin. Our analysis indicates further that changes in precipitation combine with changes in temperature to affect net carbon storage through influencing soil moisture and nutrient availability. 4 On average, our results suggest that the undisturbed Amazonian ecosystems accumulated 0.2 Pg C/year as a result of climate

Annualized TASAR Benefits for Virgin America Operations

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

The Traffic Aware Strategic Aircrew Request (TASAR) concept offers onboard automation for the purpose of advising the pilot of traffic compatible trajectory changes that would be beneficial to the flight. A fast-time simulation study was conducted to assess the benefits of TASAR to Virgin America. The simulation compares historical trajectories without TASAR to trajectories developed with TASAR and evaluated by controllers against their objectives. It was estimated that about 25,000 gallons of fuel and about 2,500 minutes could be saved annually per aircraft. These savings were applied fleet-wide to produce an estimated annual cost savings to Virgin America in excess of $5 million due to fuel, maintenance, and depreciation cost savings. Switching to a more wind-optimal trajectory was found to be the use case that generated the highest benefits out of the three TASAR use cases analyzed. Virgin America TASAR requests peaked at two to four requests per hour per sector in high-altitude Oakland and Salt Lake City center sectors east of San Francisco.

Uranium industry annual 1994

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-01-01

The Uranium Industry Annual 1994 (UIA 1994) provides current statistical data on the US uranium industry's activities relating to uranium raw materials and uranium marketing during that survey year. The UIA 1994 is prepared for use by the Congress, Federal and State agencies, the uranium and nuclear electric utility industries, and the public. It contains data for the 10-year period 1985 through 1994 as collected on the Form EIA-858, ''Uranium Industry Annual Survey.'' Data collected on the ''Uranium Industry Annual Survey'' (UIAS) provide a comprehensive statistical characterization of the industry's activities for the survey year and also include some information about industry's plans and commitments for the near-term future. Where aggregate data are presented in the UIA 1994, care has been taken to protect the confidentiality of company-specific information while still conveying accurate and complete statistical data. A feature article, ''Comparison of Uranium Mill Tailings Reclamation in the United States and Canada,'' is included in the UIA 1994. Data on uranium raw materials activities including exploration activities and expenditures, EIA-estimated resources and reserves, mine production of uranium, production of uranium concentrate, and industry employment are presented in Chapter 1. Data on uranium marketing activities, including purchases of uranium and enrichment services, and uranium inventories, enrichment feed deliveries (actual and projected), and unfilled market requirements are shown in Chapter 2

Estimating Runoff and Soil Moisture Deficit in Guinea Savannah Region of Nigeria using Water Balance Method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. R. Adesiji

2012-12-01

Full Text Available The estimation of runoff and soil moisture deficit in Guinea Savannah region using semi arid model based on soil water balance technique (SAMBA was carried out. The input to the SAMBA model are daily rainfall, daily evapotranspiration, type and date of planting of crop, and soil parameters. The estimated runoff was validated with field measurement taken in a 67.23 ha catchment in the study area. The annual rainfall for the year under study (2009 is 1356.2 mm, the estimated annual evapotranspiration. runoff and recharge are 638mm, 132.93mm, and 447.8mm respectively. Recharge was experienced 23 days after a significant depth of rainfall was recorded. For the crop growth in the catchment, the soil was cropped with a pepper and the growth monitored from the planting to the harvesting. The crop enjoyed so much moisture throughout the growing period as Total Available Water in the soil is greater than Soil Moisture Deficit (TAW>SMD. The model results show that the larger percentage of the total annual rainfall was lost to evaporation and recharge during the growing season. The low runoff and high recharge are attributed to soil characteristics of the area and moderate terrain of the study area.

Flood frequency analysis for nonstationary annual peak records in an urban drainage basin

Science.gov (United States)

Villarini, Gabriele; Smith, James A.; Serinaldi, Francesco; Bales, Jerad; Bates, Paul D.; Krajewski, Witold F.

2009-08-01

Flood frequency analysis in urban watersheds is complicated by nonstationarities of annual peak records associated with land use change and evolving urban stormwater infrastructure. In this study, a framework for flood frequency analysis is developed based on the Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape parameters (GAMLSS), a tool for modeling time series under nonstationary conditions. GAMLSS is applied to annual maximum peak discharge records for Little Sugar Creek, a highly urbanized watershed which drains the urban core of Charlotte, North Carolina. It is shown that GAMLSS is able to describe the variability in the mean and variance of the annual maximum peak discharge by modeling the parameters of the selected parametric distribution as a smooth function of time via cubic splines. Flood frequency analyses for Little Sugar Creek (at a drainage area of 110km) show that the maximum flow with a 0.01-annual probability (corresponding to 100-year flood peak under stationary conditions) over the 83-year record has ranged from a minimum unit discharge of 2.1mskm to a maximum of 5.1mskm. An alternative characterization can be made by examining the estimated return interval of the peak discharge that would have an annual exceedance probability of 0.01 under the assumption of stationarity (3.2mskm). Under nonstationary conditions, alternative definitions of return period should be adapted. Under the GAMLSS model, the return interval of an annual peak discharge of 3.2mskm ranges from a maximum value of more than 5000 years in 1957 to a minimum value of almost 8 years for the present time (2007). The GAMLSS framework is also used to examine the links between population trends and flood frequency, as well as trends in annual maximum rainfall. These analyses are used to examine evolving flood frequency over future decades.

Method of estimating investment decisions effectiveness in power engineering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kamrat, W.

1996-01-01

A new concept of determining efficient power plants investment decision-making is proposed.The results of research on capital expenditures for building and modernization of power plants are presented. The model introduced is based on the well-known Annual Cost Model which is modified by adding annual risk costs. So the formula for annual costs is: K = K f + K v + K r , where: K f are annual fixed costs, K v - annual variables costs, K r -annual risk costs. The annual risk costs can be calculated by the expression: K r = e i x K c , where e i is the investment risk factor, and K c - leveled capital investment. The risk factor was created on the basis of some elements of the taxonometric method with a high level of estimation probability. The essential problem is the selection of risk investment variables, most important of which are economic, financial, technical, social, political, legal. These variables create a multidimensional space. A so called 'ideal' model of the power plant is created taking into account capacity, type, fuel used, etc. The values of the multidimensional risk factor e i lie within limit and make it possible to rank the planned plants in series according to the estimated level of risk. This method can be used not only for risk evaluation in power engineering but also for investment efficiency studies in different industrial branches

Estimation of the Radon-induced Dose for Russia's Population: Methods and Results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marenny, A.M.; Savkin, M.N.; Shinkarev, S.M.

2000-01-01

A model is proposed for inferring the radon-induced annual average collective and personal doses, as well as the dose distribution of the population, all over Russia from selective radon monitoring in some regions of Russia. The model assumptions and the selective radon monitoring results that underlie the numerical estimates obtained for different population groups are presented. The current estimate of the collective radon-induced dose received by the population of Russia (148,100,000 as of 1996) is about 130,000 man Sv, of which 55,000 man Sv is for the rural population (27% of the total population) and 75,000 man Sv for the urban population (73% of the total). The average radon-induced personal dose in Russia is estimated to be about 0.87 mSv. About 1,000,000 people receive annual doses above 10 mSv, including some 200,000 people who receive doses above 20 mSv annually. The ways of making the current estimates more accurate are outlined. (author)

Estimation of annual heat flux balance at the sea surface from sst (NOAA-satellite and ships drift data off southeast Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yoshimine Ikeda

1985-01-01

Full Text Available The objective of this work is to study the possibility of estimating the heat flux balance at the sea surface from GOSSTCOMP (Global Ocean Sea Surface Temperature Computation developed by NOAA/NESS, USA, and sea surface current data based from ships drift information obtained from Pilot Charts, published by the Diretoria de Hidrografia e Navegação (DHN, Brazilian Navy. The annual mean value of the heat flux balance at the sea surface off southeast Brazil for 1977, is estimated from data on the balance between the heat transported by the currents and that transported by eddy diffusion for each volume defined as 2º x 2º (Lat. x Long. square with a constant depth equivalent to an oceanic mixed layer, 100 m thick. Results show several oceanic areas where there are net flows of heat from atmosphere towards the sea surface. In front of Rio de Janeiro the heat flow was downward and up to 70 ly day-1 and is probably related to the upwellirug phenomenon normally occurring in that area. Another coastal area between Lat. 25ºS to 28ºS indicated an downward flow up to 50 ly day-1; and for an area south of Lat. 27ºS, Long. 040ºW - 048ºW an downward flow up to 200 ly day-1, where the transfer was probably due to the cold water of a nortward flux from the Falkland (Malvinas Current. Results also show several oceanic areas where net flows of heat (of about -100 ly day-1 were toward the atmosphere. In the oceanic areas Lat. 19ºS - 23ºS and Lat. 24ºS - 30ºS, the flows were probably due to the warm water of a southward flux of the Brazil Current. The resulting fluxes from the warm waters of the Brazil Current when compared with those from warm waters of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio, indicate that the Gulf Stream carries about 3.3 times and the Kuroshio 1.7 times more heat than the Brazil Current. These values agree with those of data available on the heat fluxes of the above mentioned Currents calculated by different methods (Budyko, 1974.

Estimation of frequency, population doses and stochastic risks in brachytherapy in Japan, 1983

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maruyama, Takashi; Kumamoto, Yoshikazu; Noda, Yutaka; Nishizawa, Kanae; Furuya, Yoshiro; Iwai, Kazuo.

1988-01-01

Based on the replies to a questionnaire distributed throughout Japan in 1983, genetically significant dose (GSD), per Caput mean bone marrow dose (CMD), leukemogenically significant dose (LSD), malignantly significant dose (MSD), and per Caput effective dose equivalent (EDE) from using small sealed radiation sources for radiotherapy were estimated. Annual frequencies of brachytherapy were estimated to be 2.6 x 10 3 for men and 36.3 x 10 3 for women, with a total of 38.9 x 10 3 . The annual frequencies of using afterloading technique were 0.3 x 10 3 for men and 18.8 x 10 3 for women, with a total of 19.1 x 10 3 . The annual population doses per person were 7.9 nGy for GSD, 118 μGy for CMD, 19.3 μGy for LSD, 172 μGy for MSD, and 428 μGy for EDE. The annual collective effective dose equivalent was estimated to be 5.13 x 10 4 man Sv. (Namekawa, K.)

Estimating extreme losses for the Florida Public Hurricane Model—part II

Science.gov (United States)

Gulati, Sneh; George, Florence; Hamid, Shahid

2018-02-01

Rising global temperatures are leading to an increase in the number of extreme events and losses (http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/indicators/). Accurate estimation of these extreme losses with the intention of protecting themselves against them is critical to insurance companies. In a previous paper, Gulati et al. (2014) discussed probable maximum loss (PML) estimation for the Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model (FPHLM) using parametric and nonparametric methods. In this paper, we investigate the use of semi-parametric methods to do the same. Detailed analysis of the data shows that the annual losses from FPHLM do not tend to be very heavy tailed, and therefore, neither the popular Hill's method nor the moment's estimator work well. However, Pickand's estimator with threshold around the 84th percentile provides a good fit for the extreme quantiles for the losses.

Estimation and Projection of Lung Cancer Incidence and Mortality in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaonong ZOU

2010-05-01

Full Text Available Background and objective The aim of this study is to analyze lung cancer epidemiological trend and estimate lung cancer burden in China. Methods Lung cancer age specific mortality and incidence rate ratios in different areas and sexes were obtained from national cancer registration database in 2004 and 2005. Cancer crude mortalities were retrieved from the database of the third national death survey, 2004-2005. Age specific incidence rates of lung cancer were calculated using mortality and M/I ratios. Annual percent change (APC was estimated by log regression model using Joint Point software by analyzing pooled lung cancer incidence data from 10 cancer registries from 1988 to 2005. Results The total estimated new cases and deaths of lung cancer in 2005 were 536 407 and 475 768 which were higher in male than in female. There was 1.63% increase of lung cancer incidence per year from 1988 to 2005, however, the trend showed a slowdown by 0.55% annually after adjusted by age. Conclusion Lung cancer is one of major health issues in China and the burden is getting serious. Ageing population is main cause for increasing incidence and mortality of lung cancer. Effective cancer prevention and control is imperative. Especially, tobacco control should be carried out in statewide.

Annual effective dose due to residential radon progeny in Sweden: Evaluations based on current risk projections models and on risk estimates from a nation-wide Swedish epidemiological study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Doi, M [National Inst. of Radiological Sciences, Chiba (Japan); Lagarde, F [Karolinska Inst., Stockholm (Sweden). Inst. of Environmental Medicine; Falk, R; Swedjemark, G A [Swedish Radiation Protection Inst., Stockholm (Sweden)

1996-12-01

Effective dose per unit radon progeny exposure to Swedish population in 1992 is estimated by the risk projection model based on the Swedish epidemiological study of radon and lung cancer. The resulting values range from 1.29 - 3.00 mSv/WLM and 2.58 - 5.99 mSv/WLM, respectively. Assuming a radon concentration of 100 Bq/m{sup 3}, an equilibrium factor of 0.4 and an occupancy factor of 0.6 in Swedish houses, the annual effective dose for the Swedish population is estimated to be 0.43 - 1.98 mSv/year, which should be compared to the value of 1.9 mSv/year, according to the UNSCEAR 1993 report. 27 refs, tabs, figs.

Annual effective dose due to residential radon progeny in Sweden: Evaluations based on current risk projections models and on risk estimates from a nation-wide Swedish epidemiological study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doi, M.; Lagarde, F.

1996-12-01

Effective dose per unit radon progeny exposure to Swedish population in 1992 is estimated by the risk projection model based on the Swedish epidemiological study of radon and lung cancer. The resulting values range from 1.29 - 3.00 mSv/WLM and 2.58 - 5.99 mSv/WLM, respectively. Assuming a radon concentration of 100 Bq/m 3 , an equilibrium factor of 0.4 and an occupancy factor of 0.6 in Swedish houses, the annual effective dose for the Swedish population is estimated to be 0.43 - 1.98 mSv/year, which should be compared to the value of 1.9 mSv/year, according to the UNSCEAR 1993 report. 27 refs, tabs, figs

Cost estimating Brayton and Stirling engines

Science.gov (United States)

Fortgang, H. R.

1980-01-01

Brayton and Stirling engines were analyzed for cost and selling price for production quantities ranging from 1000 to 400,000 units per year. Parts and components were subjected to indepth scrutiny to determine optimum manufacturing processes coupled with make or buy decisions on materials and small parts. Tooling and capital equipment costs were estimated for each detail and/or assembly. For low annual production volumes, the Brayton engine appears to have a lower cost and selling price than the Stirling Engine. As annual production quantities increase, the Stirling becomes a lower cost engine than the Brayton. Both engines could benefit cost wise if changes were made in materials, design and manufacturing process as annual production quantities increase.

Acquisition Workforce Annual Report 2006

Data.gov (United States)

General Services Administration — This is the Federal Acquisition Institute's (FAI's) Annual demographic report on the Federal acquisition workforce, showing trends by occupational series, employment...

Acquisition Workforce Annual Report 2008

Data.gov (United States)

General Services Administration — This is the Federal Acquisition Institute's (FAI's) Annual demographic report on the Federal acquisition workforce, showing trends by occupational series, employment...

Quarterly, Bi-annual and Annual Reports

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Quarterly, Bi-annual and Annual Reports are periodic reports issued for public release. For the deep set fishery these reports are issued quarterly and anually....

Spatially explicit estimation of heat stress-related impacts of climate change on the milk production of dairy cows in the United Kingdom

Science.gov (United States)

Topp, Cairistiona F. E.; Moorby, Jon M.; Pásztor, László; Foyer, Christine H.

2018-01-01

Dairy farming is one the most important sectors of United Kingdom (UK) agriculture. It faces major challenges due to climate change, which will have direct impacts on dairy cows as a result of heat stress. In the absence of adaptations, this could potentially lead to considerable milk loss. Using an 11-member climate projection ensemble, as well as an ensemble of 18 milk loss estimation methods, temporal changes in milk production of UK dairy cows were estimated for the 21st century at a 25 km resolution in a spatially-explicit way. While increases in UK temperatures are projected to lead to relatively low average annual milk losses, even for southern UK regions (cow), the ‘hottest’ 25×25 km grid cell in the hottest year in the 2090s, showed an annual milk loss exceeding 1300 kg/cow. This figure represents approximately 17% of the potential milk production of today’s average cow. Despite the potential considerable inter-annual variability of annual milk loss, as well as the large differences between the climate projections, the variety of calculation methods is likely to introduce even greater uncertainty into milk loss estimations. To address this issue, a novel, more biologically-appropriate mechanism of estimating milk loss is proposed that provides more realistic future projections. We conclude that South West England is the region most vulnerable to climate change economically, because it is characterised by a high dairy herd density and therefore potentially high heat stress-related milk loss. In the absence of mitigation measures, estimated heat stress-related annual income loss for this region by the end of this century may reach £13.4M in average years and £33.8M in extreme years. PMID:29738581

Spatially explicit estimation of heat stress-related impacts of climate change on the milk production of dairy cows in the United Kingdom.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nándor Fodor

Full Text Available Dairy farming is one the most important sectors of United Kingdom (UK agriculture. It faces major challenges due to climate change, which will have direct impacts on dairy cows as a result of heat stress. In the absence of adaptations, this could potentially lead to considerable milk loss. Using an 11-member climate projection ensemble, as well as an ensemble of 18 milk loss estimation methods, temporal changes in milk production of UK dairy cows were estimated for the 21st century at a 25 km resolution in a spatially-explicit way. While increases in UK temperatures are projected to lead to relatively low average annual milk losses, even for southern UK regions (<180 kg/cow, the 'hottest' 25×25 km grid cell in the hottest year in the 2090s, showed an annual milk loss exceeding 1300 kg/cow. This figure represents approximately 17% of the potential milk production of today's average cow. Despite the potential considerable inter-annual variability of annual milk loss, as well as the large differences between the climate projections, the variety of calculation methods is likely to introduce even greater uncertainty into milk loss estimations. To address this issue, a novel, more biologically-appropriate mechanism of estimating milk loss is proposed that provides more realistic future projections. We conclude that South West England is the region most vulnerable to climate change economically, because it is characterised by a high dairy herd density and therefore potentially high heat stress-related milk loss. In the absence of mitigation measures, estimated heat stress-related annual income loss for this region by the end of this century may reach £13.4M in average years and £33.8M in extreme years.

Bioenergetics modeling of the annual consumption of zooplankton by pelagic fish feeding in the Northeast Atlantic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bachiller, Eneko; Utne, Kjell Rong; Jansen, Teunis

2018-01-01

The present study uses bioenergetics modeling to estimate the annual consumption of the main zooplankton groups by some of the most commercially important planktivorous fish stocks in the Northeast Atlantic, namely Norwegian spring-spawning (NSS) herring (Clupea harengus), blue whiting (Micromesi......The present study uses bioenergetics modeling to estimate the annual consumption of the main zooplankton groups by some of the most commercially important planktivorous fish stocks in the Northeast Atlantic, namely Norwegian spring-spawning (NSS) herring (Clupea harengus), blue whiting...

US forest carbon calculation tool: forest-land carbon stocks and net annual stock change

Science.gov (United States)

James E. Smith; Linda S. Heath; Michael C. Nichols

2007-01-01

The Carbon Calculation Tool 4.0, CCTv40.exe, is a computer application that reads publicly available forest inventory data collected by the U.S. Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis Program (FIA) and generates state-level annualized estimates of carbon stocks on forest land based on FORCARB2 estimators. Estimates can be recalculated as...

State energy data report 1994: Consumption estimates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1996-10-01

This document provides annual time series estimates of State-level energy consumption by major economic sector. The estimates are developed in the State Energy Data System (SEDS), operated by EIA. SEDS provides State energy consumption estimates to members of Congress, Federal and State agencies, and the general public, and provides the historical series needed for EIA`s energy models. Division is made for each energy type and end use sector. Nuclear electric power is included.

State energy data report 1994: Consumption estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1996-10-01

This document provides annual time series estimates of State-level energy consumption by major economic sector. The estimates are developed in the State Energy Data System (SEDS), operated by EIA. SEDS provides State energy consumption estimates to members of Congress, Federal and State agencies, and the general public, and provides the historical series needed for EIA's energy models. Division is made for each energy type and end use sector. Nuclear electric power is included

Residual risk over-estimated

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1982-01-01

The way nuclear power plants are built practically excludes accidents with serious consequences. This is attended to by careful selection of material, control of fabrication and regular retesting as well as by several safety systems working independently. But the remaining risk, a 'hypothetic' uncontrollable incident with catastrophic effects is the main subject of the discussion on the peaceful utilization of nuclear power. The this year's 'Annual Meeting on Nuclear Engineering' in Mannheim and the meeting 'Reactor Safety Research' in Cologne showed, that risk studies so far were too pessimistic. 'Best estimate' calculations suggest that core melt-down accidents only occur if almost all safety systems fail, that accidents take place much more slowly, and that the release of radioactive fission products is by several magnitudes lower than it was assumed until now. (orig.) [de

Estimating Energy Consumption of Transport Modes in China Using DEA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Weibin Lin

2015-04-01

Full Text Available The rapid growth of transport requirements in China will incur increasing transport energy demands and associated environmental pressures. In this paper, we employ a generalized data envelopment analysis (DEA to evaluate the relative energy efficiency of rail, road, aviation and water transport from 1971 to 2011 by considering the energy input and passenger-kilometers (PKM and freight ton-kilometers (TKM outputs. The results show that the optimal energy efficiencies observed in 2011 are for rail and water transport, with the opposite observed for the energy efficiencies of aviation and road transport. In addition, we extend the DEA model to estimate future transport energy consumption in China. If each transport mode in 2020 is optimized throughout the observed period, the national transport energy consumption in 2020 will reach 497,701 kilotons coal equivalent (ktce, whereas the annual growth rate from 2011 to 2020 will be 5.7%. Assuming that efficiency improvements occur in this period, the estimated national transport energy consumption in 2020 will be 443,126 ktce, whereas the annual growth rate from 2011 to 2020 will be 4.4%, which is still higher than that of the national total energy consumption (3.8%.

Petroleum supply annual 1998: Volume 2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1999-06-01

The Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA) contains information on the supply and disposition of crude oil and petroleum products. The publication reflects data that were collected from the petroleum industry during 1998 through monthly surveys. The PSA is divided into two volumes. The first volume contains three sections: Summary Statistics, Detailed Statistics, and Refinery Statistics; each with final annual data. This second volume contains final statistics for each month of 1998, and replaces data previously published in the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM). The tables in Volumes 1 and 2 are similarly numbered to facilitate comparison between them. Explanatory Notes, located at the end of this publication, present information describing data collection, sources, estimation methodology, data quality control procedures, modifications to reporting requirements and interpretation of tables. Industry terminology and product definitions are listed alphabetically in the Glossary. 35 tabs.

Petroleum supply annual, 1997. Volume 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1998-06-01

The Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA) contains information on the supply and disposition of crude oil and petroleum products. The publication reflects data that were collected from the petroleum industry during 1997 through monthly surveys. The PSA is divided into two volumes. The first volume contains three sections: Summary Statistics, Detailed Statistics, and Refinery Statistics; each with final annual data. The second volume contains final statistics for each month of 1997, and replaces data previously published in the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM). The tables in Volumes 1 and 2 are similarly numbered to facilitate comparison between them. Explanatory Notes, located at the end of this publication, present information describing data collection, sources, estimation methodology, data quality control procedures, modifications to reporting requirements and interpretation of tables. Industry terminology and product definitions are listed alphabetically in the Glossary. 35 tabs

Petroleum supply annual 1996: Volume 2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1997-06-01

The Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA) contains information on the supply and disposition of crude oil and petroleum products. The publication reflects data that were collected from the petroleum industry during 1996 through monthly surveys. The PSA is divided into two volumes. The first volume contains three sections: Summary Statistics, Detailed Statistics, and Refinery Capacity; each with final annual data. The second volume contains final statistics for each month of 1996, and replaces data previously published in the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM). The tables in Volumes 1 and 2 are similarly numbered to facilitate comparison between them. Explanatory Notes, located at the end of this publication, present information describing data collection, sources, estimation methodology, data quality control procedures, modifications to reporting requirements and interpretation of tables. Industry terminology and product definitions are listed alphabetically in the Glossary. 35 tabs.

Petroleum supply annual, 1997. Volume 2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1998-06-01

The Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA) contains information on the supply and disposition of crude oil and petroleum products. The publication reflects data that were collected from the petroleum industry during 1997 through monthly surveys. The PSA is divided into two volumes. The first volume contains three sections: Summary Statistics, Detailed Statistics, and Refinery Statistics; each with final annual data. The second volume contains final statistics for each month of 1997, and replaces data previously published in the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM). The tables in Volumes 1 and 2 are similarly numbered to facilitate comparison between them. Explanatory Notes, located at the end of this publication, present information describing data collection, sources, estimation methodology, data quality control procedures, modifications to reporting requirements and interpretation of tables. Industry terminology and product definitions are listed alphabetically in the Glossary. 35 tabs.

Petroleum supply annual 1996: Volume 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-06-01

The Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA) contains information on the supply and disposition of crude oil and petroleum products. The publication reflects data that were collected from the petroleum industry during 1996 through monthly surveys. The PSA is divided into two volumes. The first volume contains three sections: Summary Statistics, Detailed Statistics, and Refinery Capacity; each with final annual data. The second volume contains final statistics for each month of 1996, and replaces data previously published in the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM). The tables in Volumes 1 and 2 are similarly numbered to facilitate comparison between them. Explanatory Notes, located at the end of this publication, present information describing data collection, sources, estimation methodology, data quality control procedures, modifications to reporting requirements and interpretation of tables. Industry terminology and product definitions are listed alphabetically in the Glossary. 35 tabs

Petroleum supply annual 1995: Volume 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1996-06-01

The Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA) contains information on the supply and disposition of crude oil and petroleum products. The publication reflects data that were collected from the petroleum industry during 1995 through monthly surveys. The PSA is divided into two volumes. This first volume contains three sections: Summary Statistics, Detailed Statistics, and selected Refinery Statistics each with final annual data. The second volume contains final statistics for each month of 1995, and replaces data previously published in the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM). The tables in Volumes 1 and 2 are similarly numbered to facilitate comparison between them. Explanatory Notes, located at the end of this publication, present information describing data collection, sources, estimation methodology, data quality control procedures, modifications to reporting requirements and interpretation of tables. Industry terminology and product definitions are listed alphabetically in the Glossary

Petroleum supply annual 1998. Volume 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1999-06-01

The Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA) contains information on the supply and disposition of crude oil and petroleum products. The publication reflects data that were collected from the petroleum industry during 1998 through monthly surveys. The PSA is divided into two volumes. The first volume contains three sections: Summary Statistics, Detailed Statistics, and Refinery Statistics; each with final annual data. This second volume contains final statistics for each month of 1998, and replaces data previously published in the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM). The tables in Volumes 1 and 2 are similarly numbered to facilitate comparison between them. Explanatory Notes, located at the end of this publication, present information describing data collection, sources, estimation methodology, data quality control procedures, modifications to reporting requirements and interpretation of tables. Industry terminology and product definitions are listed alphabetically in the Glossary. 35 tabs

Estimating the health and economic benefits associated with reducing air pollution in the Barcelona metropolitan area (Spain).

Science.gov (United States)

Pérez, Laura; Sunyer, Jordi; Künzli, Nino

2009-01-01

To estimate the health and economic benefits that would result from two scenarios of improved air quality in 57 municipalities of the metropolitan area of Barcelona. We used attributable fractions and life tables to quantify the benefits for selected health outcomes, based on published concentration-response functions and economic unit values. The mean weighted concentration of PM(10) for the study population was estimated through concentration surface maps developed by the local government. The annual mean health benefits of reducing the mean PM(10) exposure estimated for the population in the study area (50microg/m(3)) to the annual mean value recommended by the World Health Organization (20microg/m(3)) were estimated to be 3,500 fewer deaths (representing an average increase in life expectancy of 14 months), 1,800 fewer hospitalizations for cardio-respiratory diseases, 5,100 fewer cases of chronic bronchitis among adults, 31,100 fewer cases of acute bronchitis among children, and 54,000 fewer asthma attacks among children and adults. The mean total monetary benefits were estimated to be 6,400 million euros per year. Reducing PM(10) to comply with the current European Union regulatory annual mean level (40microg/m(3)) would yield approximately one third of these benefits. This study shows that reducing air pollution in the metropolitan area of Barcelona would result in substantial health and economic benefits. The benefits are probably underestimated due to the assumptions made in this study. Assessment of the health impact of local air pollution is a useful tool in public health.

Inferring uncertainty from interval estimates: Effects of alpha level and numeracy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luke F. Rinne

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Interval estimates are commonly used to descriptively communicate the degree of uncertainty in numerical values. Conventionally, low alpha levels (e.g., .05 ensure a high probability of capturing the target value between interval endpoints. Here, we test whether alpha levels and individual differences in numeracy influence distributional inferences. In the reported experiment, participants received prediction intervals for fictitious towns' annual rainfall totals (assuming approximately normal distributions. Then, participants estimated probabilities that future totals would be captured within varying margins about the mean, indicating the approximate shapes of their inferred probability distributions. Results showed that low alpha levels (vs. moderate levels; e.g., .25 more frequently led to inferences of over-dispersed approximately normal distributions or approximately uniform distributions, reducing estimate accuracy. Highly numerate participants made more accurate estimates overall, but were more prone to inferring approximately uniform distributions. These findings have important implications for presenting interval estimates to various audiences.

Nevada Test Site annual site environmental report, 1989

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wruble, D T; McDowell, E M [eds.

1990-11-01

Prior to 1989 annual reports of environmental monitoring and assessment results for the Nevada Test Site (NTS) were prepared in two separate parts. Onsite effluent monitoring and environmental monitoring results were reported in an onsite report prepared by the US Department of Energy, Nevada Operations Office (DOE/NV). Results of the offsite radiological surveillance program conducted by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Environmental Monitoring Systems Laboratory, Las Vegas, Nevada, were reported separately by that Agency. Beginning with this 1989 annual Site environmental report for the NTS, these two documents are being combined into a single report to provide a more comprehensive annual documentation of the environmental protection program conducted for the nuclear testing program and other nuclear and non-nuclear activities at the Site. The two agencies have coordinated preparation of this combined onsite and offsite report through sharing of information on environmental releases and meteorological, hydrological, and other supporting data used in dose-estimate calculations. 57 refs., 52 figs., 65 tabs.

Blending Multiple Nitrogen Dioxide Data Sources for Neighborhood Estimates of Long-Term Exposure for Health Research.

Science.gov (United States)

Hanigan, Ivan C; Williamson, Grant J; Knibbs, Luke D; Horsley, Joshua; Rolfe, Margaret I; Cope, Martin; Barnett, Adrian G; Cowie, Christine T; Heyworth, Jane S; Serre, Marc L; Jalaludin, Bin; Morgan, Geoffrey G

2017-11-07

Exposure to traffic related nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) air pollution is associated with adverse health outcomes. Average pollutant concentrations for fixed monitoring sites are often used to estimate exposures for health studies, however these can be imprecise due to difficulty and cost of spatial modeling at the resolution of neighborhoods (e.g., a scale of tens of meters) rather than at a coarse scale (around several kilometers). The objective of this study was to derive improved estimates of neighborhood NO 2 concentrations by blending measurements with modeled predictions in Sydney, Australia (a low pollution environment). We implemented the Bayesian maximum entropy approach to blend data with uncertainty defined using informative priors. We compiled NO 2 data from fixed-site monitors, chemical transport models, and satellite-based land use regression models to estimate neighborhood annual average NO 2 . The spatial model produced a posterior probability density function of estimated annual average concentrations that spanned an order of magnitude from 3 to 35 ppb. Validation using independent data showed improvement, with root mean squared error improvement of 6% compared with the land use regression model and 16% over the chemical transport model. These estimates will be used in studies of health effects and should minimize misclassification bias.

Estimating the incidence of colorectal cancer in Sub–Saharan Africa: A systematic analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alice Graham

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Nearly two–thirds of annual mortality worldwide is attributable to non–communicable diseases (NCDs, with 70% estimated to occur in low– and middle–income countries (LMIC. Colorectal cancer (CRC accounts for over 600 000 deaths annually, but data concerning cancer rates in LMIC is very poor. This study analyses the data available to produce an estimate of the incidence of colorectal cancer in Sub–Saharan Africa (SSA.

Annual coded wire tag program, Washington: Missing production groups. Annual report for 1998

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Byrne, J.; Fuss, H.

1999-01-01

The Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) funds the ''Annual Coded Wire Tag Program--Missing Production Groups for Columbia River Hatcheries'' project. The WDFW project has three main objectives: (1) coded-wire tag at least one production group of each species at each Columbia Basin hatchery to enable evaluation of survival and catch distribution over time, (2) recover coded-wire tags from the snouts of fish tagged under objective 1 and estimate survival, contribution, and stray rates for each group, and (3) report the findings under objective 2 for all broods of chinook, and coho released from WDFW Columbia Basin hatcheries

Annual evapotranspiration of a forested wetland watershed, SC

Science.gov (United States)

Devendra M. Amatya; Carl Trettin

2007-01-01

In this study, hydro-meteorological data collected from 1 964 to 1 9 76 on an approximately 5, 000 ha predominantly forested coastal watershed (Turkey Creek) at the Francis Marion National Forest near Charleston, SC were analyzed to estimate annual evapotranspiration (E T) using four different empirical methods. The first one, reported by Zhang et a/. (2001), that...

Preliminary ITER cost and schedule estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1990-01-01

The cost, manpower requirements, and schedule estimates for the realization of the ITER tokamak have been studied during the Conceptual Design Activities, as a result of work by the ITER Management Committee. This work was completed during the January-March, 1990 joint work session, and is presented in this report. A possible schedule shows completion of the engineering design phase in 1995, with 180 professionals, at a cost of about $250M. The construction would be completed in 2004 with a rise in professional staff to 300, and a total cost of $4900M. The machine would be operable over an 18-year period, at an annual operating cost averaging $290M. 2 figs

Sustainability Annual Report 2013

OpenAIRE

2013-01-01

Every year, Virginia Tech releases a sustainability annual report to show the university’s progress in meeting the sustainability goals. The key sustainability metrics these reports cover include: greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, energy use intensity, alternative transportation use, recycling, and water consumption.

Sustainability Annual Report 2014

OpenAIRE

2014-01-01

Every year, Virginia Tech releases a sustainability annual report to show the university’s progress in meeting the sustainability goals. The key sustainability metrics these reports cover include: greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, energy use intensity, alternative transportation use, recycling, and water consumption.

Sustainability Annual Report 2017

OpenAIRE

2017-01-01

Every year, Virginia Tech releases a sustainability annual report to show the university’s progress in meeting the sustainability goals. The key sustainability metrics these reports cover include: greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, energy use intensity, alternative transportation use, recycling, and water consumption.

Sustainability Annual Report 2011

OpenAIRE

2011-01-01

Every year, Virginia Tech releases a sustainability annual report to show the university’s progress in meeting the sustainability goals. The key sustainability metrics these reports cover include: greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, energy use intensity, alternative transportation use, recycling, and water consumption.

Sustainability Annual Report 2012

OpenAIRE

2012-01-01

Every year, Virginia Tech releases a sustainability annual report to show the university’s progress in meeting the sustainability goals. The key sustainability metrics these reports cover include: greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, energy use intensity, alternative transportation use, recycling, and water consumption.

Sustainability Annual Report 2015

OpenAIRE

2015-01-01

Every year, Virginia Tech releases a sustainability annual report to show the university’s progress in meeting the sustainability goals. The key sustainability metrics these reports cover include: greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, energy use intensity, alternative transportation use, recycling, and water consumption.

Sustainability Annual Report 2016

OpenAIRE

2016-01-01

Every year, Virginia Tech releases a sustainability annual report to show the university’s progress in meeting the sustainability goals. The key sustainability metrics these reports cover include: greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, energy use intensity, alternative transportation use, recycling, and water consumption.

Estimating the Biogenic Non-Methane Hydrocarbon Emissions over Greece

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ermioni Dimitropoulou

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Biogenic emissions affect the urban air quality as they are ozone and secondary organic aerosol (SOA precursors and should be taken into account when applying photochemical pollution models. The present study presents an estimation of the magnitude of non-methane volatile organic compounds (BNMVOCs emitted by vegetation over Greece. The methodology is based on computation developed with the aid of a Geographic Information System (GIS and theoretical equations in order to produce an emission inventory on a 6 × 6 km2 spatial resolution, in a temporal resolution of 1 h covering one year (2016. For this purpose, a variety of input data was used: updated satellite land-use data, land-use specific emission potentials, foliar biomass densities, temperature, and solar radiation data. Hourly, daily, and annual isoprene, monoterpenes, and other volatile organic compounds (OVOCs were estimated. In the area under study, the annual biogenic emissions were estimated up to 472 kt, consisting of 46.6% isoprene, 28% monoterpenes, and 25.4% OVOCs. Results delineate an annual cycle with increasing values from March to April, while maximum emissions were observed from May to September, followed by a decrease from October to January.

Revised estimates of abundance of South African sardine and ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Hydro-acoustic surveys have been used to provide annual estimates of May recruitment and November spawner biomass of the South African sardine Sardinops sagax and anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus resources since 1984. These time-series of abundance estimates form the backbone of the assessment of these ...

Annual and life-time doses from acute and chronic intakes of 239Pu

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bhati, Sharda; Rudran, Kamala

1994-01-01

A procedure to estimate annual, committed and life time doses from acute and chronic intakes of a long-lived radionuclide 239 Pu, is described. Annual dose computations, presented for 239 Pu of 5μm activity median aerodynamic diameter (AMAD), takes into account contribution from previous years intakes. Annual limits on intakes (ALI) for W and Y class of 239 Pu are computed as per the new internal dose limitation system of ICRP-61. Life time doses, corresponding to chronic intakes of 1 ALI/y for working periods of 40 and 50 years are presented for life span of 70 years of a radiation worker. These results are useful in assigning annual doses for occupational workers handling 239 Pu. (author). 5 refs., 2 tabs

A new method to estimate genetic gain in annual crops

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Flávio Breseghello

1998-12-01

Full Text Available The genetic gain obtained by breeding programs to improve quantitative traits may be estimated by using data from regional trials. A new statistical method for this estimate is proposed and includes four steps: a joint analysis of regional trial data using a generalized linear model to obtain adjusted genotype means and covariance matrix of these means for the whole studied period; b calculation of the arithmetic mean of the adjusted genotype means, exclusively for the group of genotypes evaluated each year; c direct year comparison of the arithmetic means calculated, and d estimation of mean genetic gain by regression. Using the generalized least squares method, a weighted estimate of mean genetic gain during the period is calculated. This method permits a better cancellation of genotype x year and genotype x trial/year interactions, thus resulting in more precise estimates. This method can be applied to unbalanced data, allowing the estimation of genetic gain in series of multilocational trials.Os ganhos genéticos obtidos pelo melhoramento de caracteres quantitativos podem ser estimados utilizando resultados de ensaios regionais de avaliação de linhagens e cultivares. Um novo método estatístico para esta estimativa é proposto, o qual consiste em quatro passos: a análise conjunta da série de dados dos ensaios regionais através de um modelo linear generalizado de forma a obter as médias ajustadas dos genótipos e a matriz de covariâncias destas médias; b para o grupo de genótipos avaliados em cada ano, cálculo da média aritmética das médias ajustadas obtidas na análise conjunta; c comparação direta dos anos, conforme as médias aritméticas obtidas, e d estimativa de um ganho genético médio, por regressão. Aplicando-se o método de quadrados mínimos generalizado, é calculada uma estimativa ponderada do ganho genético médio no período. Este método permite um melhor cancelamento das interações genótipo x ano e gen

Estimations of evapotranspiration in an age sequence of Eucalyptus plantations in subtropical China.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wenfei Liu

Full Text Available Eucalyptus species are widely planted for reforestation in subtropical China. However, the effects of Eucalyptus plantations on the regional water use remain poorly understood. In an age sequence of 2-, 4- and 6-year-old Eucalyptus plantations, the tree water use and soil evaporation were examined by linking model estimations and field observations. Results showed that annual evapotranspiration of each age sequence Eucalyptus plantations was 876.7, 944.1 and 1000.7 mm, respectively, accounting for 49.81%, 53.64% and 56.86% of the annual rainfall. In addition, annual soil evaporations of 2-, 4- and 6-year-old were 318.6, 336.1, and 248.7 mm of the respective Eucalyptus plantations. Our results demonstrated that Eucalyptus plantations would potentially reduce water availability due to high evapotranspiration in subtropical regions. Sustainable management strategies should be implemented to reduce water consumption in Eucalyptus plantations in the context of future climate change scenarios such as drought and warming.

A method for estimating the local area economic damages of Superfund waste sites

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Walker, D.R.

1992-01-01

National Priority List (NPL) sites, or more commonly called Superfund sites, are hazardous waste sites (HWS) deemed by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to impose the greatest risks to human health or welfare or to the environment. HWS are placed and ranked for cleanup on the NPL based on a score derived from the Hazard Ranking System (HRS), which is a scientific assessment of the health and environmental risks posed by HWS. A concern of the HRS is that the rank of sites is not based on benefit-cost analysis. The main objective of this dissertation is to develop a method for estimating the local area economic damages associated with Superfund waste sites. Secondarily, the model is used to derive county-level damage estimates for use in ranking the county level damages from Superfund sites. The conceptual model used to describe the damages associated with Superfund sites is a household-firm location decision model. In this model assumes that households and firms make their location choice based on the local level of wages, rents and amenities. The model was empirically implemented using 1980 census microdata on households and workers in 253 counties across the US. The household sample includes data on the value and structural characteristics of homes. The worker sample includes the annual earnings of workers and a vector worker attributes. The microdata was combined with county level amenity data, including the number of Superfund sites. The hedonic pricing technique was used to estimate the effect of Superfund sites on average annual wages per household and on monthly expenditures on housing. The results show that Superfund sites impose statistically significant damages on households. The annual county damages from Superfund sites for a sample of 151 counties was over 14 billion dollars. The ranking of counties using the damage estimates is correlated with the rank of counties using the HRS

Revised methane emissions factors and spatially distributed annual carbon fluxes for global livestock.

Science.gov (United States)

Wolf, Julie; Asrar, Ghassem R; West, Tristram O

2017-09-29

Livestock play an important role in carbon cycling through consumption of biomass and emissions of methane. Recent research suggests that existing bottom-up inventories of livestock methane emissions in the US, such as those made using 2006 IPCC Tier 1 livestock emissions factors, are too low. This may be due to outdated information used to develop these emissions factors. In this study, we update information for cattle and swine by region, based on reported recent changes in animal body mass, feed quality and quantity, milk productivity, and management of animals and manure. We then use this updated information to calculate new livestock methane emissions factors for enteric fermentation in cattle, and for manure management in cattle and swine. Using the new emissions factors, we estimate global livestock emissions of 119.1 ± 18.2 Tg methane in 2011; this quantity is 11% greater than that obtained using the IPCC 2006 emissions factors, encompassing an 8.4% increase in enteric fermentation methane, a 36.7% increase in manure management methane, and notable variability among regions and sources. For example, revised manure management methane emissions for 2011 in the US increased by 71.8%. For years through 2013, we present (a) annual livestock methane emissions, (b) complete annual livestock carbon budgets, including carbon dioxide emissions, and (c) spatial distributions of livestock methane and other carbon fluxes, downscaled to 0.05 × 0.05 degree resolution. Our revised bottom-up estimates of global livestock methane emissions are comparable to recently reported top-down global estimates for recent years, and account for a significant part of the increase in annual methane emissions since 2007. Our results suggest that livestock methane emissions, while not the dominant overall source of global methane emissions, may be a major contributor to the observed annual emissions increases over the 2000s to 2010s. Differences at regional and local scales may help

Evaluating direct medical expenditures estimation methods of adults using the medical expenditure panel survey: an example focusing on head and neck cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Coughlan, Diarmuid; Yeh, Susan T; O'Neill, Ciaran; Frick, Kevin D

2014-01-01

To inform policymakers of the importance of evaluating various methods for estimating the direct medical expenditures for a low-incidence condition, head and neck cancer (HNC). Four methods of estimation have been identified: 1) summing all health care expenditures, 2) estimating disease-specific expenditures consistent with an attribution approach, 3) estimating disease-specific expenditures by matching, and 4) estimating disease-specific expenditures by using a regression-based approach. A literature review of studies (2005-2012) that used the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) was undertaken to establish the most popular expenditure estimation methods. These methods were then applied to a sample of 120 respondents with HNC, derived from pooled data (2003-2008). The literature review shows that varying expenditure estimation methods have been used with MEPS but no study compared and contrasted all four methods. Our estimates are reflective of the national treated prevalence of HNC. The upper-bound estimate of annual direct medical expenditures of adult respondents with HNC between 2003 and 2008 was $3.18 billion (in 2008 dollars). Comparable estimates arising from methods focusing on disease-specific and incremental expenditures were all lower in magnitude. Attribution yielded annual expenditures of $1.41 billion, matching method of $1.56 billion, and regression method of $1.09 billion. This research demonstrates that variation exists across and within expenditure estimation methods applied to MEPS data. Despite concerns regarding aspects of reliability and consistency, reporting a combination of the four methods offers a degree of transparency and validity to estimating the likely range of annual direct medical expenditures of a condition. © 2013 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) Published by International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) All rights reserved.

Estimating water storage changes and sink terms in Volta Basin from satellite missions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vagner G. Ferreira

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The insufficiency of distributed in situ hydrological measurements is a major challenge for hydrological studies in many regions of the world. Satellite missions such as the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE and the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM can be used to improve our understanding of water resources beyond surface water in poorly gauged basins. In this study we combined GRACE and TRMM to investigate monthly estimates of evaporation plus runoff (sink terms using the water balance equation for the period from January 2005 to December 2010 within the Volta Basin. These estimates have been validated by comparison with time series of sink terms (evaporation plus surface and subsurface runoff from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS. The results, for the period under consideration, show strong agreement between both time series, with a root mean square error (RMSE of 20.2 mm/month (0.67 mm/d and a correlation coefficient of 0.85. This illustrates the ability of GRACE to predict hydrological quantities, e.g. evaporation, in the Volta Basin. The water storage change data from GRACE and precipitation data from TRMM all show qualitative agreement, with evidence of basin saturation at approximately 73 mm in the equivalent water column at the annual and semi-annual time scales.

State-Level Estimates of Cancer-Related Absenteeism Costs

Science.gov (United States)

Tangka, Florence K.; Trogdon, Justin G.; Nwaise, Isaac; Ekwueme, Donatus U.; Guy, Gery P.; Orenstein, Diane

2016-01-01

Background Cancer is one of the top five most costly diseases in the United States and leads to substantial work loss. Nevertheless, limited state-level estimates of cancer absenteeism costs have been published. Methods In analyses of data from the 2004–2008 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, the 2004 National Nursing Home Survey, the U.S. Census Bureau for 2008, and the 2009 Current Population Survey, we used regression modeling to estimate annual state-level absenteeism costs attributable to cancer from 2004 to 2008. Results We estimated that the state-level median number of days of absenteeism per year among employed cancer patients was 6.1 days and that annual state-level cancer absenteeism costs ranged from $14.9 million to $915.9 million (median = $115.9 million) across states in 2010 dollars. Absenteeism costs are approximately 6.5% of the costs of premature cancer mortality. Conclusions The results from this study suggest that lost productivity attributable to cancer is a substantial cost to employees and employers and contributes to estimates of the overall impact of cancer in a state population. PMID:23969498

Estimation of the hydric supply with scarce information in strategic ecosystems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Otaya Burbano, Leodan Andres; Vasquez Velasquez, Guillermo Leon; Bustamante Carmona, Guillermo de Jesus

2008-01-01

This study was conducted in the Paramo and High Andean Forest System of the Middle Northwest of Antioquia Special Management Area (SMA), located in the Department of Antioquia, Colombia. The SMA has a total extension of 34.358,74 ha. The main object of this investigation was to estimate the environmental supply of hydric resource that originate in this system and with secondary objectives the estimation of monthly and annual average originate in the system, as well as to estimate the annual minimal volume for different periods of return. To achieve these objectives the water accounting procedure to accomplish a detailed water balance according to Holdridge and the regionalization of the mean characteristics method were used. As results for the SMA, a precipitation of 665.288.946,00 m3 year 1 , a real evapo-transpiration of 242.363.796,00 m 3 year 1 and an annual run-off average of 422.925.149,57 m 3 year 1 . A run-off coefficient of 63,6% was obtained, which signifies that 63,6% of the precipitation becomes run-off and the 36,4% remainder is lost by evapotranspiration. As conclusion the study area has an annual precipitation mean, (1.847,4 mm), that is less than the annual precipitation average for Colombia (3.000 mm) and greater than the annual average of South America (1.600 mm); and the hydric availability (39,032 L s 1 km 2 ) of the studied system is less than the hydric availability mean for Colombia (58 L s 1 km 2 ) and greater than the hydric availability mean for South America (21 L s-1 km 2 )

Flood frequency analysis for nonstationary annual peak records in an urban drainage basin

Science.gov (United States)

Villarini, G.; Smith, J.A.; Serinaldi, F.; Bales, J.; Bates, P.D.; Krajewski, W.F.

2009-01-01

Flood frequency analysis in urban watersheds is complicated by nonstationarities of annual peak records associated with land use change and evolving urban stormwater infrastructure. In this study, a framework for flood frequency analysis is developed based on the Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape parameters (GAMLSS), a tool for modeling time series under nonstationary conditions. GAMLSS is applied to annual maximum peak discharge records for Little Sugar Creek, a highly urbanized watershed which drains the urban core of Charlotte, North Carolina. It is shown that GAMLSS is able to describe the variability in the mean and variance of the annual maximum peak discharge by modeling the parameters of the selected parametric distribution as a smooth function of time via cubic splines. Flood frequency analyses for Little Sugar Creek (at a drainage area of 110 km2) show that the maximum flow with a 0.01-annual probability (corresponding to 100-year flood peak under stationary conditions) over the 83-year record has ranged from a minimum unit discharge of 2.1 m3 s- 1 km- 2 to a maximum of 5.1 m3 s- 1 km- 2. An alternative characterization can be made by examining the estimated return interval of the peak discharge that would have an annual exceedance probability of 0.01 under the assumption of stationarity (3.2 m3 s- 1 km- 2). Under nonstationary conditions, alternative definitions of return period should be adapted. Under the GAMLSS model, the return interval of an annual peak discharge of 3.2 m3 s- 1 km- 2 ranges from a maximum value of more than 5000 years in 1957 to a minimum value of almost 8 years for the present time (2007). The GAMLSS framework is also used to examine the links between population trends and flood frequency, as well as trends in annual maximum rainfall. These analyses are used to examine evolving flood frequency over future decades. ?? 2009 Elsevier Ltd.

Satellite-based estimates of surface water dynamics in the Congo River Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Becker, M.; Papa, F.; Frappart, F.; Alsdorf, D.; Calmant, S.; da Silva, J. Santos; Prigent, C.; Seyler, F.

2018-04-01

In the Congo River Basin (CRB), due to the lack of contemporary in situ observations, there is a limited understanding of the large-scale variability of its present-day hydrologic components and their link with climate. In this context, remote sensing observations provide a unique opportunity to better characterize those dynamics. Analyzing the Global Inundation Extent Multi-Satellite (GIEMS) time series, we first show that surface water extent (SWE) exhibits marked seasonal patterns, well distributed along the major rivers and their tributaries, and with two annual maxima located: i) in the lakes region of the Lwalaba sub-basin and ii) in the "Cuvette Centrale", including Tumba and Mai-Ndombe Lakes. At an interannual time scale, we show that SWE variability is influenced by ENSO and the Indian Ocean dipole events. We then estimate water level maps and surface water storage (SWS) in floodplains, lakes, rivers and wetlands of the CRB, over the period 2003-2007, using a multi-satellite approach, which combines the GIEMS dataset with the water level measurements derived from the ENVISAT altimeter heights. The mean annual variation in SWS in the CRB is 81 ± 24 km3 and contributes to 19 ± 5% of the annual variations of GRACE-derived terrestrial water storage (33 ± 7% in the Middle Congo). It represents also ∼6 ± 2% of the annual water volume that flows from the Congo River into the Atlantic Ocean.

Estimation of groundwater recharge from the subsurface to the rock mass. A case study of Tono Mine Area, Gifu Prefecture

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kobayashi, Koichi; Nakano, Katushi; Koide, Kaoru

1996-01-01

The groundwater flow analysis involve the groundwater recharge from the subsurface to the rock mass. According to water balance method, annual groundwater recharge is calculated by the remainder of annual evapotranspirator and river flow from annual precipitation. In this estimation, hydrological and meteorological data observed for 5 years on the watershed in Tono mine area is used. Annual precipitation ranges from 1,000 to 1,900 mm and annual river flow ranges from 400 to 1,300 mm, then river flow depends critically on precipitation. Annual evapotranspiration calculated by Penman method ranges from 400 to 500 mm. It is less fluctuant than annual precipitation. As the result of examination of water balance in subsurface zone estimated, annual ground water recharge ranges from 10 to 200 mm in this watershed. (author)

Occupational dose estimates for a monitored retrievable storage facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harty, R.; Stoetzel, G.A.

1986-06-01

Occupational doses were estimated for radiation workers at the monitored retrievable storage (MRS) facility. This study provides an estimate of the occupational dose based on the current MRS facility design, examines the extent that various design parameters and assumptions affect the dose estimates, and identifies the areas and activities where exposures can be reduced most effectively. Occupational doses were estimated for both the primary storage concept and the alternate storage concept. The dose estimates indicate the annual dose to all radiation workers will be below the 5 rem/yr federal dose equivalent limit. However, the estimated dose to most of the receiving and storage crew (the workers responsible for the receipt, storage, and surveillance of the spent fuel and its subsequent retrieval), to the crane maintenance technicians, and to the cold and remote maintenance technicians is above the design objective of 1 rem/yr. The highest annual dose is received by the riggers (4.7 rem) in the receiving and storage crew. An indication of the extent to which various design parameters and assumptions affect the dose estimates was obtained by changing various design-based assumptions such as work procedures, background dose rates in radiation zones, and the amount of fuel received and stored annually. The study indicated that a combination of remote operations, increased shielding, and additional personnel (for specific jobs) or changes in operating procedures will be necessary to reduce worker doses below 1.0 rem/yr. Operations that could be made at least partially remote include the removal and replacement of the tiedowns, impact limiters, and personnel barriers from the shipping casks and the removal or installation of the inner closure bolts. Reductions of the background dose rates in the receiving/shipping and the transfer/discharge areas may be accomplished with additional shielding

An assessment of annual whole-body occupational radiation exposure in Ireland (1996-2005)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Colgan, P. A.; Currivan, L.; Fenton, D.

2008-01-01

mine and in three show caves indicate an annual collective dose of 75 man mSv from these work activities. By comparison, previous estimates of exposure of Irish air crew to cosmic radiation have given rise to an estimated collective dose of 12 000 man mSv. It can be concluded therefore that the natural radioactivity sources account for well >90% of all occupational exposure in Ireland. This evaluation does not include an estimate of exposure to radon in above-ground workplaces - these data are currently being evaluated and their inclusion will increase both the total occupational collective dose as well as the percentage of that dose due to natural radiation. (authors)

Distribution load estimation - DLE

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Seppaelae, A. [VTT Energy, Espoo (Finland)

1996-12-31

The load research project has produced statistical information in the form of load models to convert the figures of annual energy consumption to hourly load values. The reliability of load models is limited to a certain network because many local circumstances are different from utility to utility and time to time. Therefore there is a need to make improvements in the load models. Distribution load estimation (DLE) is the method developed here to improve load estimates from the load models. The method is also quite cheap to apply as it utilises information that is already available in SCADA systems

Distribution load estimation - DLE

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Seppaelae, A [VTT Energy, Espoo (Finland)

1997-12-31

The load research project has produced statistical information in the form of load models to convert the figures of annual energy consumption to hourly load values. The reliability of load models is limited to a certain network because many local circumstances are different from utility to utility and time to time. Therefore there is a need to make improvements in the load models. Distribution load estimation (DLE) is the method developed here to improve load estimates from the load models. The method is also quite cheap to apply as it utilises information that is already available in SCADA systems

Annual survival and site fidelity of northern pintails banded on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Nicolai, Christopher A.; Flint, Paul L.; Wege, Michael L.

2005-01-01

We banded northern pintails (Anas acuta; n = 13,645) at a single site on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (YKD), Alaska, USA, from 1990 to 2001. We used recaptures from our site in combination with hunter recoveries to model annual survival, recovery rates, and fidelity to our capture location. Most recoveries (>90%) occurred in the Pacific Flyway with 64% reported from California's Central Valley. Our top candidate models allowed survival to vary by sex but not by age or year. Estimated annual survival was 77.6% (95% CI: 73.9-81.0%) for males and 60.2% (95% CI: 53.2-67.0%) for females. Reporting rates varied by age, sex, and year; estimates for adult males exceeded those for adult females by 3.5 times. Within sexes, reporting rates of hatch-year pintails exceeded those of adults. Estimated recovery rates were considerably lower than those estimated during the 1950s-1970s for winter banded pintails (Hestbeck 1993b), but there were no differences in survival rates. This suggests that changes in harvest regulations may not have influenced annual survival in this population. The propensity of banded pintails to return to our capture site (fidelity rate) varied between sexes and was positively correlated with water conditions in prairie Canada. Our estimates of fidelity rates varied from 77.4% to 87.2% for males and 89.8% to 94.3% for females. Our fidelity estimates suggest that some level of subpopulation structuring may exist for northern pintails. Additionally, our estimates of fidelity support previous observations of northern pintails overflying poor wetland habitat conditions on the Canadian prairies.

Annual and inter-annual variations of 6.5-day-planetary-waves in MLT observed by TIMED/SABER

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Yingying; Li, Huijun; Li, Chongyin; Zhang, Shaodong

2017-04-01

Annual and inter-annual variations of 6.5DWs in 20-110 km, 52°S-52°N, 2002-2016 are studied by using v2.0 TIMED/SABER kinetic temperature data. Firstly, global annual variations of 6.5DW's spectral power and amplitudes are obtained. Strong wave amplitudes emerge in 30°S/N-50°S/N, and peaks in altitude separate in stratosphere (40-50 km), mesosphere (80-90 km) and the lower thermosphere (100-110 km), respectively. Their annual variations are similar in both hemispheres, but different in altitude. In 40-50 km, the annual maximums emerge mostly in winters: Dec.-Jan. in the NH and Jul.-Aug. in the SH. In MLT, annual peaks arise twice in each half of year. In 80-90 km, they're mainly in equinoctial seasons and winters: May, Aug.-Sep. and Jan. in the NH and Feb., Nov. and May in the SH. In 100-110 km, they emerge mainly in equinoctial seasons: Apr.-May and Aug.-Sep. in the NH and Feb.-Mar. and Oct.-Nov. in the SH. Then, inter-annual variations of 6.5DW amplitudes during the 14-year period are studied. Frequency spectra of monthly-mean amplitudes show that, main dynamics in long-term variations of 6.5DWs are AO and SAO in both hemispheres. Besides, QBO are visible in both hemispheres and 4-month period signals are noticed in the NH in MLT. Amplitudes of SAO, AO and QBO are obtained by bandpass filter. Their amplitudes are comparable in stratosphere and mesosphere, and QBO signals are weaker than the others in the LT. Vertical variations both of SAO and AO amplitudes are very stable. AO structures have little inter-annual changes, while inter-annual variations of SAO are significant and are related with 6.5DW. It means that annual and inter-annual variations of 6.5DW are mainly controlled by AO and SAO, respectively. Although QBO signals are weaker and their variations are less regular than AO and SAO, their phases seems to relate with inter-annual variations of 6.5DW as well.

A case study of cost-efficient staffing under annualized hours.

Science.gov (United States)

van der Veen, Egbert; Hans, Erwin W; Veltman, Bart; Berrevoets, Leo M; Berden, Hubert J J M

2015-09-01

We propose a mathematical programming formulation that incorporates annualized hours and shows to be very flexible with regard to modeling various contract types. The objective of our model is to minimize salary cost, thereby covering workforce demand, and using annualized hours. Our model is able to address various business questions regarding tactical workforce planning problems, e.g., with regard to annualized hours, subcontracting, and vacation planning. In a case study for a Dutch hospital two of these business questions are addressed, and we demonstrate that applying annualized hours potentially saves up to 5.2% in personnel wages annually.

Annual patient and caregiver burden of oncology clinic visits for granulocyte-colony stimulating factor therapy in the US.

Science.gov (United States)

Stephens, J Mark; Li, Xiaoyan; Reiner, Maureen; Tzivelekis, Spiros

2016-01-01

Prophylactic treatment with granulocyte-colony stimulating factors (G-CSFs) is indicated for chemotherapy patients with a significant risk of febrile neutropenia. This study estimates the annual economic burden on patients and caregivers of clinic visits for prophylactic G-CSF injections in the US. Annual clinic visits for prophylactic G-CSF injections (all cancers) were estimated from national cancer incidence, chemotherapy treatment and G-CSF utilization data, and G-CSF sales and pricing information. Patient travel times, plus time spent in the clinic, were estimated from patient survey responses collected during a large prospective cohort study (the Prospective Study of the Relationship between Chemotherapy Dose Intensity and Mortality in Early-Stage (I-III) Breast Cancer Patients). Economic models were created to estimate travel costs, patient co-pays and the economic value of time spent by patients and caregivers in G-CSF clinic visits. Estimated total clinic visits for prophylactic G-CSF injections in the US were 1.713 million for 2015. Mean (SD) travel time per visit was 62 (50) min; mean (SD) time in the clinic was 41 (68) min. Total annual time for travel to and from the clinic, plus time at the clinic, is estimated at 4.9 million hours, with patient and caregiver time valued at $91.8 million ($228 per patient). The estimated cumulative annual travel distance for G-CSF visits is 60.2 million miles, with a total transportation cost of $28.9 million ($72 per patient). Estimated patient co-pays were $61.1 million, ∼$36 per visit, $152 per patient. The total yearly economic impact on patients and caregivers is $182 million, ∼$450 per patient. Data to support model parameters were limited. Study estimates are sensitive to the assumptions used. The burden of clinic visits for G-CSF therapy is a significant addition to the total economic burden borne by cancer patients and their families.

Analysis of data on radon monitoring and dose estimates for uranium mines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khan, A.H.; Srivastava, G.K.; Jha, Shankar; Sagar, D.V.

1994-01-01

Radon progeny are the major contributors to the radiation dose to uranium miners. Monitoring for radon and gamma radiation is an integral part of radiation protection in such mines. Data for equilibrium equivalent radon and the estimated mean annual doses are presented in this paper for Jaduguda uranium mine from 1986 to 1992. The 1992 data for Jaduguda and Bhatin mines are compared. The average annual effective dose for uranium miners is estimated at around 15.5 mSv. (author). 1 ref., 2 figs

State energy data report 1995 - consumption estimates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1997-12-01

The State Energy Data Report (SEDR) provides annual time series estimates of State-level energy consumption by major economic sectors. The estimates are developed in the State Energy Data System (SEDS), which is maintained and operated by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The goal in maintaining SEDS exists for two principal reasons: (1) to provide State energy consumption estimates to Members of Congress, Federal and State agencies, and the general public, and (2) to provide the historical series necessary for EIA`s energy models.

Magnitude of flood flows for selected annual exceedance probabilities for streams in Massachusetts

Science.gov (United States)

Zarriello, Phillip J.

2017-05-11

significant at the 95-percent confidence level for any of the AEPs examined. The effect of urbanization on flood flows indicates a complex interaction with other basin characteristics. Another complicating factor is the assumption of stationarity, that is, the assumption that annual peak flows exhibit no significant trend over time. The results of the analysis show that stationarity does not prevail at all of the streamgages. About 27 percent of streamgages in Massachusetts and about 42 percent of streamgages in adjacent States with 20 or more years of systematic record used in the study show a significant positive trend at the 95-percent confidence level. The remaining streamgages had both positive and negative trends, but the trends were not statistically significant. Trends were shown to vary over time. In particular, during the past decade (2004–2013), peak flows were persistently above normal, which may give the impression of positive trends. Only continued monitoring will provide the information needed to determine whether recent increases in annual peak flows are a normal oscillation or a true trend.The analysis used 37 years of additional data obtained since the last comprehensive study of flood flows in Massa­chusetts. In addition, new methods for computing flood flows at streamgages and regionalization improved estimates of flood magnitudes at gaged and ungaged locations and better defined the uncertainty of the estimates of AEP floods.

The Annual Dose for Qena Generative Population Due to Consume the Animal Products

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harb, S.; Sahalel Din, K.; Abbady, A.; Saad, N.

2010-01-01

Several kinds of cattle and poultry fodder samples collected from South Valley University and Qena governorate farm, Qena, Upper Egypt were estimated for their natural radioactivity concentrations due to Ra-226, Ra-228, Th-232 and K-40 radionuclides. Twenty nine fodder samples were analyzed by using low-level gamma-spectrometric. Based on radionuclides concentrations in animal fodder and annual consumption rate, the human health risk from irradiation due to indirect ingestion can be assessed. The annual effective dose from these radionuclides, which may reach the local consumer through beef, milk, poultry and eggs consumption have been estimated as 2.7 E +00, 1.4 E +01, 1.0 E -01 and 1.4 E -01 μSv/y, respectively

Modelling spatial and temporal variations of annual suspended sediment yields from small agricultural catchments.

Science.gov (United States)

Rymszewicz, A; Bruen, M; O'Sullivan, J J; Turner, J N; Lawler, D M; Harrington, J R; Conroy, E; Kelly-Quinn, M

2018-04-01

Estimates of sediment yield are important for ecological and geomorphological assessment of fluvial systems and for assessment of soil erosion within a catchment. Many regulatory frameworks, such as the Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment of the North-East Atlantic, derived from the Oslo and Paris Commissions (OSPAR) require reporting of annual sediment fluxes. While they may be measured in large rivers, sediment flux is rarely measured in smaller rivers. Measurements of sediment transport at a national scale can be also challenging and therefore, sediment yield models are often utilised by water resource managers for the predictions of sediment yields in the ungauged catchments. Regression based models, calibrated to field measurements, can offer an advantage over complex and computational models due to their simplicity, easy access to input data and due to the additional insights into factors controlling sediment export in the study sites. While traditionally calibrated to long-term average values of sediment yields such predictions cannot represent temporal variations. This study addresses this issue in a novel way by taking account of the variation from year to year in hydrological variables in the developed models (using annual mean runoff, annual mean flow, flows exceeded in five percentage of the time (Q5) and seasonal rainfall estimated separately for each year of observations). Other parameters included in the models represent spatial differences influenced by factors such as soil properties (% poorly drained soils and % peaty soils), land-use (% pasture or % arable lands), channel slope (S1085) and drainage network properties (drainage density). Catchment descriptors together with year-specific hydrological variables can explain both spatial differences and inter-annual variability of suspended sediment yields. The methodology is demonstrated by deriving equations from Irish data-sets (compiled in this study) with the best model

The estimation of probable maximum precipitation: the case of Catalonia.

Science.gov (United States)

Casas, M Carmen; Rodríguez, Raül; Nieto, Raquel; Redaño, Angel

2008-12-01

A brief overview of the different techniques used to estimate the probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is presented. As a particular case, the 1-day PMP over Catalonia has been calculated and mapped with a high spatial resolution. For this purpose, the annual maximum daily rainfall series from 145 pluviometric stations of the Instituto Nacional de Meteorología (Spanish Weather Service) in Catalonia have been analyzed. In order to obtain values of PMP, an enveloping frequency factor curve based on the actual rainfall data of stations in the region has been developed. This enveloping curve has been used to estimate 1-day PMP values of all the 145 stations. Applying the Cressman method, the spatial analysis of these values has been achieved. Monthly precipitation climatological data, obtained from the application of Geographic Information Systems techniques, have been used as the initial field for the analysis. The 1-day PMP at 1 km(2) spatial resolution over Catalonia has been objectively determined, varying from 200 to 550 mm. Structures with wavelength longer than approximately 35 km can be identified and, despite their general concordance, the obtained 1-day PMP spatial distribution shows remarkable differences compared to the annual mean precipitation arrangement over Catalonia.

Estimation of adult antiretroviral treatment coverage in South Africa ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The unmet need for treatment in adults is estimated using a Markov model of HIV progression in adults, combined with estimates of annual new HIV infections from a national AIDS and demographic model. Results. By the middle of 2008, 568 000 adults and children were receiving antiretroviral treatment in South Africa, ...

Estimation of Global Vegetation Productivity from Global LAnd Surface Satellite Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tao Yu

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Accurately estimating vegetation productivity is important in research on terrestrial ecosystems, carbon cycles and climate change. Eight-day gross primary production (GPP and annual net primary production (NPP are contained in MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS products (MOD17, which are considered the first operational datasets for monitoring global vegetation productivity. However, the cloud-contaminated MODIS leaf area index (LAI and Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FPAR retrievals may introduce some considerable errors to MODIS GPP and NPP products. In this paper, global eight-day GPP and eight-day NPP were first estimated based on Global LAnd Surface Satellite (GLASS LAI and FPAR products. Then, GPP and NPP estimates were validated by FLUXNET GPP data and BigFoot NPP data and were compared with MODIS GPP and NPP products. Compared with MODIS GPP, a time series showed that estimated GLASS GPP in our study was more temporally continuous and spatially complete with smoother trajectories. Validated with FLUXNET GPP and BigFoot NPP, we demonstrated that estimated GLASS GPP and NPP achieved higher precision for most vegetation types.

Estimated incremental costs for NRC licensees to implement the US/IAEA safeguards agreement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clark, R.G.; Brouns, R.J.; Chockie, A.D.; Davenport, L.C.; Merrill, J.A.

1979-01-01

A study was recently completed for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commision (NRC) by the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) to identify the incremental cost of implementing the US/IAEA safeguards treaty agreement to eligible NRC licensees. Sources for the study were cost estimates from several licensees who will be affected by the agreement and cost analyses by PNL staff. The initial cost to all eligible licensees to implement the agreement is estimated by PNL to range from $1.9 to $7.2 million. The annual cost to these same licensees for the required accounting and reporting activities is estimated at $0.5 to $1.5 million. Annual inspection costs to the industry for the limited IAEA inspection being assumed is estimated at $80,000 to $160,000

Annual direct cost of dry eye in Japan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mizuno Y

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Yoshinobu Mizuno, Masakazu Yamada, Chika ShigeyasuDivision for Vision Research, National Institute of Sensory Organs, National Tokyo Medical Center, Tokyo, JapanOn behalf of The Dry Eye Survey Group, National Hospital Organization of JapanBackground: This study was performed to estimate the annual direct cost incurred by dry eye patients, which includes expenses for treatment and drugs, as well as the cost of punctal plugs.Methods: The study group consisted of 118 dry eye patients aged 20 years or older who visited any of the 15 medical care facilities that participated in this prospective cohort dry eye study. We estimated annual direct costs from outpatient medical records and survey questionnaires obtained from patients. Results: Of the total patients enrolled, 10 were men and 108 women, and their average age was 64.1 ± 11.2 years. The number of hospital visits made by patients was 5.8 ± 3.6 per year. Among those who used ophthalmic solutions, the numbers of bottles used per year were as follows: 32.1 ± 20.8 bottles of hyaluronic acid ophthalmic solution (87 patients, 53.1 ± 42.2 bottles of artificial tears (40 patients, and 33.2 ± 23.2 bottles of over-the-counter eyedrops (15 patients. In patients with punctal plugs, 4.1 ± 3.9 plugs were used annually. The annual drug cost was 32,000 ± 21,675 Japanese yen (323 ± 219 US dollars. The clinical cost was 16,318 ± 9961 Japanese yen (165 ± 101 US dollars. The total direct costs including punctal plug treatment amounted to 52,467 ± 38,052 Japanese yen (530 ± 384 US dollars. Conclusion: Although treatment modalities for dry eye in Japan were different from those in the US and in European countries, the direct cost of dry eye patients in Japan was comparable with that reported in those countries. Considering the high prevalence of dry eye, the direct cost of this chronic condition may be significant.Keywords: burden of disease, cost, dry eye, eyedrops, quality of life

Assessment of Antarctic Ice-Sheet Mass Balance Estimates: 1992 - 2009

Science.gov (United States)

Zwally, H. Jay; Giovinetto, Mario B.

2011-01-01

Published mass balance estimates for the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) lie between approximately +50 to -250 Gt/year for 1992 to 2009, which span a range equivalent to 15% of the annual mass input and 0.8 mm/year Sea Level Equivalent (SLE). Two estimates from radar-altimeter measurements of elevation change by European Remote-sensing Satellites (ERS) (+28 and -31 Gt/year) lie in the upper part, whereas estimates from the Input-minus-Output Method (IOM) and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) lie in the lower part (-40 to -246 Gt/year). We compare the various estimates, discuss the methodology used, and critically assess the results. Although recent reports of large and accelerating rates of mass loss from GRACE=based studies cite agreement with IOM results, our evaluation does not support that conclusion. We find that the extrapolation used in the published IOM estimates for the 15 % of the periphery for which discharge velocities are not observed gives twice the rate of discharge per unit of associated ice-sheet area than the 85% faster-moving parts. Our calculations show that the published extrapolation overestimates the ice discharge by 282 Gt/yr compared to our assumption that the slower moving areas have 70% as much discharge per area as the faster moving parts. Also, published data on the time-series of discharge velocities and accumulation/precipitation do not support mass output increases or input decreases with time, respectively. Our modified IOM estimate, using the 70% discharge assumption and substituting input from a field-data compilation for input from an atmospheric model over 6% of area, gives a loss of only 13 Gt/year (versus 136 Gt/year) for the period around 2000. Two ERS-based estimates, our modified IOM, and a GRACE-based estimate for observations within 1992 to 2005 lie in a narrowed range of +27 to - 40 Gt/year, which is about 3% of the annual mass input and only 0.2 mm/year SLE. Our preferred estimate for 1992-2001 is - 47 Gt

Estimation of annual effective dose from 226Ra 228Ra due to consumption of foodstuffs by inhabitants of high level natural radiation of Ramsar, Iran

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fathivand, A.A.; Asefi, M.; Amidi, A.

2005-01-01

Full text: A knowledge of natural radioactivity in man and his environment is important since naturally occurring radionuclides are the major source of radiation exposure to man. Radioactive nuclides present in the natural environment enter the human body mainly through food and water.Besides, measurement of naturally occurring radionuclides in the environment can be used not only as a reference when routine releases from nuclear installation or accidental radiation exposures are assessed, but also as a baseline to evaluate the impact caused by non-nuclear activities. In Iran, measurement of natural and artificial radionuclides in environmental samples in normal and high-background radiation areas have been performed by some investigators but no information has been available on 226 Ra and 228 Ra in foodstuffs. Therefore we have started measurements of 226 Ra and 228 Ra in foodstuffs of Ramsar which is a coastal city in the north part of Iran and has been known as one of the world's high level natural radiation areas, using low level gamma spectrometry measurement system .The results from our measurements and food consumption rates for inhabitants of Ramsar city have been used for the estimation of annual effective dose due to consumption of foodstuffs by inhabitants of Ramsar city. A total of 33 samples from 11 different foodstuffs including root vegetables (beetroot), leafy vegetables (lettuce, parsley and spinach) and tea, meat,chicken, pea,broad bean, rice, and cheese were purchased from markets and were analyzed for their 226 Ra and 228 Ra concentrations. The highest concentrations of 226 Ra and 228 Ra were determined in tea samples with 1570 and 1140 mBq kg -1 respectively and the maximum estimated annual effective dose from 226 Ra and Ra due to consumption foodstuffs were determined to be 19.22 and 0.71 μSv from rice and meat samples respectively

Regional crop gross primary production and yield estimation using fused Landsat-MODIS data

Science.gov (United States)

He, M.; Kimball, J. S.; Maneta, M. P.; Maxwell, B. D.; Moreno, A.

2017-12-01

Accurate crop yield assessments using satellite-based remote sensing are of interest for the design of regional policies that promote agricultural resiliency and food security. However, the application of current vegetation productivity algorithms derived from global satellite observations are generally too coarse to capture cropland heterogeneity. Merging information from sensors with reciprocal spatial and temporal resolution can improve the accuracy of these retrievals. In this study, we estimate annual crop yields for seven important crop types -alfalfa, barley, corn, durum wheat, peas, spring wheat and winter wheat over Montana, United States (U.S.) from 2008 to 2015. Yields are estimated as the product of gross primary production (GPP) and a crop-specific harvest index (HI) at 30 m spatial resolution. To calculate GPP we used a modified form of the MOD17 LUE algorithm driven by a 30 m 8-day fused NDVI dataset constructed by blending Landsat (5 or 7) and MODIS Terra reflectance data. The fused 30-m NDVI record shows good consistency with the original Landsat and MODIS data, but provides better spatiotemporal information on cropland vegetation growth. The resulting GPP estimates capture characteristic cropland patterns and seasonal variations, while the estimated annual 30 m crop yield results correspond favorably with county-level crop yield data (r=0.96, pcrop yield performance was generally lower, but still favorable in relation to field-scale crop yield surveys (r=0.42, p<0.01). Our methods and results are suitable for operational applications at regional scales.

Estimated suspended-sediment loads and yields in the French and Brandywine Creek Basins, Chester County, Pennsylvania, water years 2008-09

Science.gov (United States)

Sloto, Ronald A.; Olson, Leif E.

2011-01-01

Turbidity and suspended-sediment concentration data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) at four stream stations--French Creek near Phoenixville, West Branch Brandywine Creek near Honey Brook, West Branch Brandywine Creek at Modena, and East Branch Brandywine Creek below Downingtown--in Chester County, Pa. Sedimentation and siltation is the leading cause of stream impairment in Chester County, and these data are critical for quantifying sediment transport. This study was conducted by the USGS in cooperation with the Chester County Water Resources Authority and the Chester County Health Department. Data from optical turbidity sensors deployed at the four stations were recorded at 15- or 30-minute intervals by a data logger and uploaded every 1 to 4 hours to the USGS database. Most of the suspended-sediment samples were collected using automated samplers. The use of optical sensors to continuously monitor turbidity provided an accurate estimate of sediment fluctuations without the collection and analysis costs associated with intensive sampling during storms. Turbidity was used as a surrogate for suspended-sediment concentration (SSC), which is a measure of sedimentation and siltation. Regression models were developed between SSC and turbidity for each of the monitoring stations using SSC data collected from the automated samplers and turbidity data collected at each station. Instantaneous suspended-sediment loads (SSL) were computed from time-series turbidity and discharge data for the 2008 and 2009 water years using the regression equations. The instantaneous computations of SSL were summed to provide daily, storm, and water year annual loads. The annual SSL contributed from each basin was divided by the upstream drainage area to estimate the annual sediment yield. For all four basins, storms provided more than 96 percent of the annual SSL. In each basin, four storms generally provided over half the annual SSL each water year. Stormflows with the

Estimate of annual daily maximum rainfall and intense rain equation for the Formiga municipality, MG, Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giovana Mara Rodrigues Borges

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Knowledge of the probabilistic behavior of rainfall is extremely important to the design of drainage systems, dam spillways, and other hydraulic projects. This study therefore examined statistical models to predict annual daily maximum rainfall as well as models of heavy rain for the city of Formiga - MG. To do this, annual maximum daily rainfall data were ranked in decreasing order that best describes the statistical distribution by exceedance probability. Daily rainfall disaggregation methodology was used for the intense rain model studies and adjusted with Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF and Exponential models. The study found that the Gumbel model better adhered to the data regarding observed frequency as indicated by the Chi-squared test, and that the exponential model best conforms to the observed data to predict intense rains.

Trends in Healthcare Expenditures Among US Adults With Hypertension: National Estimates, 2003-2014.

Science.gov (United States)

Kirkland, Elizabeth B; Heincelman, Marc; Bishu, Kinfe G; Schumann, Samuel O; Schreiner, Andrew; Axon, R Neal; Mauldin, Patrick D; Moran, William P

2018-05-30

One in 3 US adults has high blood pressure, or hypertension. As prior projections suggest hypertension is the costliest of all cardiovascular diseases, it is important to define the current state of healthcare expenditures related to hypertension. We used a nationally representative database, the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, to calculate the estimated annual healthcare expenditure for patients with hypertension and to measure trends in expenditure longitudinally over a 12-year period. A 2-part model was used to estimate adjusted incremental expenditures for individuals with hypertension versus those without hypertension. Sex, race/ethnicity, education, insurance status, census region, income, marital status, Charlson Comorbidity Index, and year category were included as covariates. The 2003-2014 pooled data include a total sample of 224 920 adults, of whom 36.9% had hypertension. Unadjusted mean annual medical expenditure attributable to patients with hypertension was $9089. Relative to individuals without hypertension, individuals with hypertension had $1920 higher annual adjusted incremental expenditure, 2.5 times the inpatient cost, almost double the outpatient cost, and nearly triple the prescription medication expenditure. Based on the prevalence of hypertension in the United States, the estimated adjusted annual incremental cost is $131 billion per year higher for the hypertensive adult population compared with the nonhypertensive population. Individuals with hypertension are estimated to face nearly $2000 higher annual healthcare expenditure compared with their nonhypertensive peers. This trend has been relatively stable over 12 years. Healthcare costs associated with hypertension account for about $131 billion. This warrants intense effort toward hypertension prevention and management. © 2018 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Cost and price estimate of Brayton and Stirling engines in selected production volumes

Science.gov (United States)

Fortgang, H. R.; Mayers, H. F.

1980-01-01

The methods used to determine the production costs and required selling price of Brayton and Stirling engines modified for use in solar power conversion units are presented. Each engine part, component and assembly was examined and evaluated to determine the costs of its material and the method of manufacture based on specific annual production volumes. Cost estimates are presented for both the Stirling and Brayton engines in annual production volumes of 1,000, 25,000, 100,000 and 400,000. At annual production volumes above 50,000 units, the costs of both engines are similar, although the Stirling engine costs are somewhat lower. It is concluded that modifications to both the Brayton and Stirling engine designs could reduce the estimated costs.

The role of hydrology in annual organic carbon loads and terrestrial organic matter export from a midwestern agricultural watershed

Science.gov (United States)

Dalzell, Brent J.; Filley, Timothy R.; Harbor, Jon M.

2007-03-01

Defining the control that hydrology exerts on organic carbon (OC) export at the watershed scale is important for understanding how the source and quantity of OC in streams and rivers is influenced by climate change or by landscape drainage. To this end, molecular (lignin phenol), stable carbon isotope, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) data were collected over a range of flow conditions to examine the influence of hydrology on annual OC export from an 850 km 2 Midwestern United States agricultural watershed located in west central Indiana. In years 2002 and 2003, modeled annual DOC loads were 19.5 and 14.1 kg ha -1yr -1, while 71% and 85%, respectively, of the total annual OC was exported in flow events occurring during less than 20% of that time. These results highlight the importance of short-duration, high-discharge events (common in smaller watersheds) in controlling annual OC export. Based on reported increases in annual stream discharge coupled with current estimates of DOC export, annual DOC loads in this watershed may have increased by up to 40% over the past 50 years. Molecular (lignin phenol) characterization of quantity and relative degradation state of terrestrial OC shows as much temporal variability of lignin parameters (in high molecular weight dissolved organic carbon) in this one watershed as that demonstrated in previously published studies of dissolved organic matter in the Mississippi and Amazon Rivers. These results suggest that hydrologic variability is at least as important in determining the nature and extent of OC export as geographic variability. Moreover, molecular and bulk stable carbon isotope data from high molecular weight dissolved organic carbon and colloidal organic carbon showed that increased stream flow from the study watershed was responsible for increased export of agriculturally derived OC. When considered in the context of results from other studies that show the importance of flood events and in-stream processing of

Annual intake of 137Cs and 90Sr from ingestion of main foodstuffs in Taiwan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Chih-Jung; Lai, Shu-Ying; Huang, Ching-Chung; Lin, Yu-ming

1996-01-01

The radioactivities of eight main foodstuffs were investigated during 1985-1994 to evaluate the annual intake from the ingestion of 137 Cs and 90 Sr for the residents of Taiwan. The evaluation of annual intake was based on the results of radiochemical analysis of 90 Sr and gamma-ray spectrometry of 137 Cs as well as annual consumption rates of those foodstuffs in Taiwan. The annual intake 90 Sr and 137 Cs per capita is 13 and 60 Bq, respectively. Among the eight foodstuffs, fruit contributed the most to the annual intake of 90 Sr, vegetable second, rice the third and egg the least. For 137 Cs, rice contributed the most, then fruit, meat the third and flour the least. Based on the new conversion factors from ICRP 60, the annual committed effective doses of Taiwanese due to the ingestion of radionuclides 90 Sr and 137 Cs were estimated to be 3.7 x 10 -7 and 7.8 x 10 -7 Sv, respectively. (author)

Radon and radon daughters indoors, problems in the determination of the annual average

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Swedjemark, G.A.

1984-01-01

The annual average of the concentration of radon and radon daughters in indoor air is required both in studies such as determining the collective dose to a population and at comparing with limits. Measurements are often carried out during a time period shorter than a year for practical reasons. Methods for estimating the uncertainties due to temporal variations in an annual average calculated from measurements carried out during various lengths of the sampling periods. These methods have been applied to the results from long-term measurements of radon-222 in a few houses. The possibilities to use correction factors in order to get a more adequate annual average have also been studied and some examples have been given. (orig.)

A robust estimate of the number and characteristics of persons released from prison in Australia.

Science.gov (United States)

Avery, Alex; Kinner, Stuart A

2015-08-01

To estimate the number and characteristics of adults released from prison in Australia. We calculated ratios, stratified by age, sex and Indigenous status, by comparing the number of persons released from prison in New South Wales (NSW), with the number in NSW prisons on 30 June of the corresponding year. These stratified ratios were applied to Australia-wide prison data to estimate the number and characteristics of persons released annually. We estimated that in 2013, 38,576 persons were released from prison in Australia - 25.3% more than the daily prison population. Young people, Indigenous people and women were over-represented among those released. We estimated that 3.69 Indigenous women aged 18-24 were released annually for each equivalent person in prison; and 2.75 non-Indigenous women aged 18-24 were released annually for each equivalent person in prison. The annual 'flow' through Australia's prisons is well in excess of the daily number, but information on those moving through prison systems is not yet publicly available. The characteristics of those released from prison differ meaningfully from those of people in prison. Routine, national reporting of prison separations is critical to informing upscaling and targeting of Throughcare services for this profoundly vulnerable population. © 2015 Public Health Association of Australia.

Natural gas annual 1992: Supplement: Company profiles

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1994-01-01

The data for the Natural Gas Annual 1991 Supplement : Company Profiles are taken from Form EIA-176, (open quotes) Annual Report of Natural and Supplemental Gas Supply and Disposition (close quotes). Other sources include industry literature and corporate annual reports to shareholders. The companies appearing in this report are major interstate natural gas pipeline companies, large distribution companies, or combination companies with both pipeline and distribution operations. The report contains profiles of 45 corporate families. The profiles describe briefly each company, where it operates, and any important issues that the company faces. The purpose of this report is to show the movement of natural gas through the various States served by the 45 large companies profiled.

Radon continuous monitoring in Altamira Cave (northern Spain) to assess user's annual effective dose

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lario, J.; Sanchez-Moral, S.; Canaveras, J.C.; Cuezva, S.; Soler, V.

2005-01-01

In this work, we present the values of radon concentration, measured by continuous monitoring during a complete annual cycle in the Polychromes Hall of Altamira Cave in order to undertake more precise calculations of annual effective dose for guides and visitors in tourist caves. The 222 Rn levels monitored inside the cave ranges from 186 Bq m -3 to 7120 Bq m -3 , with an annual average of 3562 Bq m -3 . In order to more accurately estimate effective dose we use three scenarios with different equilibrium factors (F=0.5, 0.7 and 1.0) together with different dose conversion factors proposed in the literature. Neither effective dose exceeds international recommendations. Moreover, with an automatic radon monitoring system the time remaining to reach the maximum annual dose recommended could be automatically updated

Approximated EU GHG inventory: Early estimates for 2011

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Herold, A. [Oeko-Institut (Oeko), Freiburg (Germany); Fernandez, R. [European Environment Agency (EEA), Copenhagen (Denmark)

2012-10-15

The objective of this report is to provide an early estimate of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the EU-15 and EU-27 for the year 2011. The official submission of 2011 data to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will occur in 2013. In recent years, the EEA and its European Topic Centre on Air Pollution and Climate Change Mitigation have developed a methodology to estimate GHG emissions using a bottom up approach - based on data or estimates for individual countries, sectors and gases - to derive EU GHG estimates in the preceding year (t-1). For transparency, this report shows the country-level GHG estimates from which the EU estimates have been derived. The 2011 estimates are based on the latest activity data available at country level and assume no change in emission factors or methodologies as compared to the official 2012 submissions to UNFCCC (which relate to emissions in 2010). Some Member States estimate and publish their own early estimates of GHG emissions for the preceding year. Where such estimates exist they are clearly referenced in this report in order to ensure complete transparency regarding the different GHG estimates available. Member State early estimates were also used for quality assurance and quality control of the EEA's GHG early estimates for 2011. Finally, the EEA has also used the early estimates of 2011 GHG emissions produced by EEA member countries to assess progress towards the Kyoto targets in its annual trends and projections report (due to be published alongside the present report). In that report, the EEA's early estimates for 2011 were only used for countries that lack their own early estimates to track progress towards national and EU targets. (LN)

Approximated EU GHG inventory: Early estimates for 2010

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Herold, A.; Busche, J.; Hermann, H.; Joerss, W.; Scheffler, M. (OEko-Institut, Freiburg (Germany))

2011-10-15

The objective of this report is to provide an early estimate of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the EU-15 and EU-27 for the year 2010. The official submission of 2010 data to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will occur in 2012. In recent years, the EEA and its European Topic Centre on Air Pollution and Climate Change Mitigation have developed a methodology to estimate GHG emissions using a bottom up approach - based on data or estimates for individual countries, sectors and gases - to derive EU GHG estimates in the preceding year (t-1). For transparency, this report shows the country-level GHG estimates from which the EU estimates have been derived. The 2010 estimates are based on the latest activity data available at country level and assume no change in emission factors or methodologies as compared to the official 2011 submissions to UNFCCC (which re-late to emissions in 2009). Some Member States estimate and publish their own early estimates of GHG emissions for the preceding year. Where such estimates exist they are clearly referenced in this report in order to ensure complete transparency regarding the different GHG estimates available. Member State early estimates were also used for quality assurance and quality control of the EEA's GHG early estimates for 2010. Finally, EEA has also used the early estimates of 2010 GHG emissions produced by EEA member countries to assess progress towards the Kyoto targets in its annual trends and projections report (due to be published alongside the present report). In that report, the EEA's early estimates for 2010 were only used for countries that lack their own early estimates to track progress towards national and EU targets. (Author)

Theory and design of an Annual Cycle Energy System (ACES) for residences

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nephew, E.A.; Abbatiello, L.A.; Ballou, M.L.

1980-05-01

The basic concept of the Annual Cycle Energy System (ACES) - an integrated system for supplying space heating, hot water, and air conditioning to a building - and the theory underlying its design and operation are described. Practical procedures for designing an ACES for a single-family residence, together with recommended guidelines for the construction and installation of system components, are presented. Methods are discussed for estimating the life-cycle cost, component sizes, and annual energy consumption of the system for residential applications in different climatic regions of the US.

Estimation of survival of adult Florida manatees in the Crystal River, at Blue Spring, and on the Atlantic Coast

Science.gov (United States)

O'Shea, Thomas J.; Langtimm, Catherine A.; O'Shea, Thomas J.; Ackerman, B.B.; Percival, H. Franklin

1995-01-01

We applied Cormack-Jolly-Seber open population models to manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) photo-identification databases to estimate adult survival probabilities. The computer programs JOLLY and RECAPCO were used to estimate survival of 677 individuals in three study areas: Crystal River (winters 1977-78 to 1990-91), Blue Spring (winters 1977-78 to 1990-91), and the Atlantic Coast (winters 1984-85 to 1990-91). We also estimated annual survival from observations of 111 manatees tagged for studies with radiotelemetry. Survival estimated from observations with telemetry had broader confidence intervals than survival estimated with the Cormack-Jolly-Seber models. Annual probabilities of capture based on photo-identification records were generally high. The mean annual adult survival estimated from sighting-resighting records was 0.959-0.962 in the Crystal River and 0.936-0.948 at Blue Spring and may be high enough to permit population growth, given the values of other life-history parameters. On the Atlantic Coast, the estimated annual adult survival (range of means = 0.877-0.885) may signify a declining population. However, for several reasons, interpretation of data from the latter study group should be tempered with caution. Adult survivorship seems to be constant with age in all three study groups. No strong differences were apparent between adult survival ofmales and females in the Crystal River or at Blue Spring; the basis of significant differences between sexes on the Atlantic Coast is unclear. Future research into estimating survival with photo-identification and the Cormack-Jolly-Seber models should be vigorously pursued. Estimates of annual survival can provide an additional indication of Florida manatee population status with a stronger statistical basis than aerial counts and carcass totals.

1999 Annual Cathodic Protection Survey Report for PFP

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

BOWMAN, T.J.

2000-01-01

This cathodic protection (CP) report documents the results of the 1999 annual CP survey of the underground piping within PFP property. An annual survey of CP systems is required by Washington Administrative Code (WAC). A spreadsheet to document the 1999 annual survey polarization data is included in this report. Graphs are included to trend the cathodic voltages and the polarization voltages at each test station on PFP property. The trending spans from 1994 to 1999. Graphs are also included to trend voltage and amperage outputs of each rectifier during the annual surveys. During the annual survey, resistance testing between the underground piping was conducted at each test station. The testing showed that all piping (with test leads into the test stations) was continuous with every pipe represented in the test stations. The resistance data is not documented in this report but can be accessed in work package 22-99-01003. During the annual survey, the wiring configurations of anode junction boxes AJB(R45-1) and AJB(45-1) were documented. The sketches can be accessed from the JCS work record of work package 22-99-01003. Analysis, conclusions, and recommendations of the 1999 annual CP survey results are included in this report

Annual reconstruction of the solar cycle from atmospheric 14C variations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murphy, J.O.

1990-01-01

Initially, the rise and fall components of the 11-year solar sunspot cycle are approximated by separate least-squares polynomials for four cycle classifications, which are determined by the magnitude of the average of the annual sunspot numbers per cycle. Following a method is formulated to generate detailed reconstruction of the annual variation of a solar cycle based on this cycle average, and the results obtained for cycles -4 through to 21 are compared with the annual Zurich values. This procedure is then employed to establish annual sunspot numbers using published average cycle values obtained from atmospheric carbon 14 variations, which have been derived from the chemical analysis of tree ring sections. The reconstructed sequences are correlated with the observed cycle values and with tree ring width index chronologies which exhibit a significant 11-year periodicity. It is anticipated that the long carbon 14 records and parallel dendrochronological data could be employed to obtain a more detailed portrayal of previous periods of strong solar activity than that given by current estimates based on historical records. 17 refs., 2 tabs., 9 figs

Estimates of US biofuels consumption, 1990

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-10-01

This report is the sixth in the series of publications developed by the Energy Information Administration to quantify the amount of biofuel-derived primary energy used by the US economy. It provides preliminary estimates of 1990 US biofuels energy consumption by sector and by biofuels energy resource type. The objective of this report is to provide updated annual estimates of biofuels energy consumption for use by congress, federal and state agencies, and other groups involved in activities related to the use of biofuels. 5 figs., 10 tabs

Estimates of US biofuels consumption, 1990

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1991-10-01

This report is the sixth in the series of publications developed by the Energy Information Administration to quantify the amount of biofuel-derived primary energy used by the US economy. It provides preliminary estimates of 1990 US biofuels energy consumption by sector and by biofuels energy resource type. The objective of this report is to provide updated annual estimates of biofuels energy consumption for use by congress, federal and state agencies, and other groups involved in activities related to the use of biofuels. 5 figs., 10 tabs.

A direct estimate of evapotranspiration over the Amazon basin and implications for our understanding of carbon and water cycling

Science.gov (United States)

Swann, A. L. S.; Koven, C.; Lombardozzi, D.; Bonan, G. B.

2017-12-01

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a critical term in the surface energy budget as well as the water cycle. There are few direct measurements of ET, and thus the magnitude and variability is poorly constrained at large spatial scales. Estimates of the annual cycle of ET over the Amazon are critical because they influence predictions of the seasonal cycle of carbon fluxes, as well as atmospheric dynamics and circulation. We estimate ET for the Amazon basin using a water budget approach, by differencing rainfall, discharge, and time-varying storage from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment. We find that the climatological annual cycle of ET over the Amazon basin upstream of Óbidos shows suppression of ET during the wet season, and higher ET during the dry season, consistent with flux tower based observations in seasonally dry forests. We also find a statistically significant decrease in ET over the time period 2002-2015 of -1.46 mm/yr. Our direct estimate of the seasonal cycle of ET is largely consistent with previous indirect estimates, including energy budget based approaches, an up-scaled station based estimate, and land surface model estimates, but suggests that suppression of ET during the wet season is underestimated by existing products. We further quantify possible contributors to the phasing of the seasonal cycle and downward time trend using land surface models.

EPR researches of tree cuts for estimating radio - ecological situation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bitenbayev, M.I.; Polyakov, A.I.

2007-01-01

Full text: The basic aim of present work is to study a possibility of nature object application, in this case the annual rings of trees, for reveal of the effects of post - radiation action for them by EPR method. The cuts of poplars at the age 70 years and older grown in various regions of Kazakhstan with increased level of radiation background were selected as the research objects. EPR spectra were registered for every annual ring separately at the room temperatures. On the basis of EPR experimental results it was ascertained that the EPR spectra of annual rings may be symbolically divided for two groups every of which is possessed of its own definite kind of the spectrum. The first group are the spectra of the annual rings relating to 1981 - 1999 years (in 1999 the trees were cut), and the second group are these of the rings relating 1934 - 1980 years. At that it has been showed that an additional exposure to γ-ray of Co 60 transforms the first group spectrum to the form typical for the second group, i.e. the radiation effect becomes apparent in these experiments. The analyses of EPR spectra parameters has been performed and a correlation between the dependences of intensity of certain components in the spectrum on gamma - irradiation dose and the age of the annul rings has been showed. One can suppose that the intensity changing of these spectrum components in the second group, concerned with free radical accumulation, was the results of long-term action to the object by ionizing radiations. The studied effects can be used for average estimation of absorbed doses of ionizing radiation by environment objects, in particular, by residents of regions surveyed

Methods for estimating annual exceedance-probability streamflows for streams in Kansas based on data through water year 2015

Science.gov (United States)

Painter, Colin C.; Heimann, David C.; Lanning-Rush, Jennifer L.

2017-08-14

A study was done by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Kansas Department of Transportation and the Federal Emergency Management Agency to develop regression models to estimate peak streamflows of annual exceedance probabilities of 50, 20, 10, 4, 2, 1, 0.5, and 0.2 percent at ungaged locations in Kansas. Peak streamflow frequency statistics from selected streamgages were related to contributing drainage area and average precipitation using generalized least-squares regression analysis. The peak streamflow statistics were derived from 151 streamgages with at least 25 years of streamflow data through 2015. The developed equations can be used to predict peak streamflow magnitude and frequency within two hydrologic regions that were defined based on the effects of irrigation. The equations developed in this report are applicable to streams in Kansas that are not substantially affected by regulation, surface-water diversions, or urbanization. The equations are intended for use for streams with contributing drainage areas ranging from 0.17 to 14,901 square miles in the nonirrigation effects region and, 1.02 to 3,555 square miles in the irrigation-affected region, corresponding to the range of drainage areas of the streamgages used in the development of the regional equations.

State Energy Data Report, 1991: Consumption estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-05-01

The State Energy Data Report (SEDR) provides annual time series estimates of State-level energy consumption by major economic sector. The estimates are developed in the State Energy Data System (SEDS), which is maintained and operated by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The goal in maintaining SEDS is to create historical time series of energy consumption by State that are defined as consistently as possible over time and across sectors. SEDS exists for two principal reasons: (1) to provide State energy consumption estimates to the Government, policy makers, and the public; and (2) to provide the historical series necessary for EIA's energy models

A case study of cost-efficient staffing under annualized hours

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Veen, Egbert; Hans, Elias W.; Veltman, Bart; Berrevoets, Leo M.; Berden, Hubert J.J.M.

2014-01-01

We propose a mathematical programming formulation that incorporates annualized hours and shows to be very flexible with regard to modeling various contract types. The objective of our model is to minimize salary cost, thereby covering workforce demand, and using annualized hours. Our model is able

A case study of cost-efficient staffing under annualized hours

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Veen, Egbert; Hans, Elias W.; Veltman, Bart; Berrevoets, L.M.; Berden, H.J.J.M.

We propose a mathematical programming formulation that incorporates annualized hours and shows to be very flexible with regard to modeling various contract types. The objective of our model is to minimize salary cost, thereby covering workforce demand, and using annualized hours. Our model is able

Status of annual plant species in the Baneberry fallout pattern first and sixth years after initial irradiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rhoads, W.A.

1977-01-01

At Project Baneberry on December 18, 1970, there was an accidental venting of radioactive debris into the environment which resulted in the irradiation of vegetation about 1.5 km to the north with doses estimated to reach a maximum of 6.2 K rads, beta plus gamma. At the highest doses, 35 percent of the dominant shrub in the area, Coleogyne (black brush), were killed and 65% severely damaged; and at lesser doses there was correspondingly less damage. Other species of shrubs were also affected. Grayia spinosa showed a low frequency of stem fasciation at the higher doses as well as other manifestations of radiation damage. In June 1971, the annual plant species which were probably small seedlings at fallout time were more frequently absent from the higher radiation areas than in the lower. At the same time, there was a greater frequency of higher dry weights produced by annuals at the higher radiation exposures. The frequency of occurrence of annuals varied from means of 8.5/m 2 at the higher doses to 24.3/m 2 at the lower doses. In June 1976, five years after irradiation, there were 300 to 400 plants/m 2 . By extrapolating the plants/m 2 against dose back to zero plants/m 2 , some indication of radiation doses which might destroy all annuals was derived

Using Mobile Device Samples to Estimate Traffic Volumes

Science.gov (United States)

2017-12-01

In this project, TTI worked with StreetLight Data to evaluate a beta version of its traffic volume estimates derived from global positioning system (GPS)-based mobile devices. TTI evaluated the accuracy of average annual daily traffic (AADT) volume :...

Cost estimating relationships for nuclear power plant operationa and maintenance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bowers, H.I.; Fuller, L.C.; Myers, M.L.

1987-11-01

Revised cost estimating relationships for 1987 are presented for estimating annual nonfuel operation and maintenance (O and M) costs for light-water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants, which update guidelines published previously in 1982. The purpose of these cost estimating relationships is for use in long range planning and evaluations of the economics of nuclear energy for electric power generation. A listing of a computer program, LWROM, implementing the cost estimating relationships and written in advanced BASIC for IBM personal computers, is included

Population based estimates of non-fatal injuries in the capital of Iran.

Science.gov (United States)

Saadat, Soheil; Mafi, Mostafa; Sharif-Alhoseini, Mahdi

2011-07-31

Fatal injuries are at the top of the injury pyramid; however, non-fatal injuries are quite common and impose huge medical expenses on the population. Relying on hospital data will underestimate the incidence of non-fatal injuries. The aim of this study was to estimate the annual incidence and out of pocket medical expenses of all injuries in urban population of Tehran (the capital city of Iran). Using the cluster random sampling approach, a household survey of residents of greater Tehran was performed on April 2008. At randomly selected residential locations, interviewers asked one adult person to report all injuries which have occurred during the past year for all household members, as well as the type of injury, place of occurrence, the activity, cause of accidents resulting in injuries, the amount of out of pocket medical expenses for injury, and whether they referred to hospital. This study included 2,450 households residing in Tehran during 2007-8. The annual incidence of all injuries was 188.7 (180.7-196.9), significant injuries needing any medical care was 68.8 (63.7-74.2), fractures was 19.3 (16.6 - 22.4), and injuries resulted in hospitalization was 16.7 (14.2 - 19.6) per 1000 population. The annual incidence of fatal injuries was 33 (7-96) per 100,000 Population. In children aged 15 or less, the annual incidence of all injuries was 137.2 (120.0 - 155.9), significant injuries needing any medical care was 64.2 (52.2 - 78.0), fractures was 21.8 (15.0 - 30.7), and injuries resulted in hospitalization was 6.8 (3.3 - 12.5) per 1000 population. The mean out of pocket medical expense for injuries was 19.9 USD. This population based study showed that the real incidence of non-fatal injuries in the capital of Iran is more than the formal hospital-based estimates. These injuries impose non trivial medical and indirect cost on the community. The out of pocket medical expense of non-fatal injuries to Tehran population is estimated as 27 million USD per year. Effective

Aircraft ground damage and the use of predictive models to estimate costs

Science.gov (United States)

Kromphardt, Benjamin D.

Aircraft are frequently involved in ground damage incidents, and repair costs are often accepted as part of doing business. The Flight Safety Foundation (FSF) estimates ground damage to cost operators $5-10 billion annually. Incident reports, documents from manufacturers or regulatory agencies, and other resources were examined to better understand the problem of ground damage in aviation. Major contributing factors were explained, and two versions of a computer-based model were developed to project costs and show what is possible. One objective was to determine if the models could match the FSF's estimate. Another objective was to better understand cost savings that could be realized by efforts to further mitigate the occurrence of ground incidents. Model effectiveness was limited by access to official data, and assumptions were used if data was not available. However, the models were determined to sufficiently estimate the costs of ground incidents.

Assessment of annual effective dose from 238U and 226Ra due to consumption of foodstuffs by inhabitants of Tehran city (IR)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hosseini, T.; Fathivand, A. A.; Abbasisiar, F.; Karimi, M.; Barati, H.

2006-01-01

The concentrations of 238 U and 226 Ra were determined in different foodstuffs purchased from markets in Tehran. Determinations of the radionuclides have been carried out using alpha spectrometry technique, on samples of egg, lentil, potato, rice, soya, spinach, tea and wheat. Average concentrations of natural radionuclides and foodstuff consumption rate were used to assess annual intake and based on intake values, the annual effective ingestion dose has been estimated for Tehran city residents. The measurement results show that soya has the maximum concentration of 238 U equal to 15.6 ± 2.6 mBq kg -1 and tea has the maximum concentration of 226 Ra equal to 1153.3 ± 265.3 mBq kg -1 . Besides, the maximum annual effective dose from 238 U and 226 Ra were assessed to be 2.88 x 10 -2 ±7.20 x 10 -3 and 2.15 ± 0.54 μSv, respectively, from wheat samples. (authors)

Hydroacoustic estimates of fish biomass and spatial distributions in shallow lakes

Science.gov (United States)

Lian, Yuxi; Huang, Geng; Godlewska, Małgorzata; Cai, Xingwei; Li, Chang; Ye, Shaowen; Liu, Jiashou; Li, Zhongjie

2018-03-01

We conducted acoustical surveys with a horizontal beam transducer to detect fish and with a vertical beam transducer to detect depth and macrophytes in two typical shallow lakes along the middle and lower reaches of the Changjiang (Yangtze) River in November 2013. Both lakes are subject to active fish management with annual stocking and removal of large fish. The purpose of the study was to compare hydroacoustic horizontal beam estimates with fish landings. The preliminary results show that the fish distribution patterns differed in the two lakes and were affected by water depth and macrophyte coverage. The hydroacoustically estimated fish biomass matched the commercial catch very well in Niushan Lake, but it was two times higher in Kuilei Lake. However, acoustic estimates included all fish, whereas the catch included only fish >45 cm (smaller ones were released). We were unable to determine the proper regression between acoustic target strength and fish length for the dominant fish species in the two lakes.

Environmental isotope balance of Lake Kinneret as a tool in evaporation rate estimation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lewis, S.

1979-01-01

The balance of environmental isotopes in Lake Kinneret has been used to obtain an independent estimate of the mean monthly evaporation rate. Direct calculation was precluded by the inadequacy of the isotope data in uniquely representing the system behaviour throughout the annual cycle. The approach adopted uses an automatic algorithm to seek an objective best fit of the isotope balance model to measured oxygen-18 data by optimizing the evaporation rate as a parameter. To this end, evaporation is described as a periodic function with two parameters. The sensitivity of the evaporation rate estimates to parameter uncertainty and data errors is stressed. Error analysis puts confidence limits on the estimates obtained. Projected improvements in data collection and analysis show that a significant reduction in uncertainty can be realized. Relative to energy balance estimates, currently obtainable data result in about 30% uncertainty. The most optimistic scenario would yield about 15% relative uncertainty. (author)

Comparing Methods of Calculating Expected Annual Damage in Urban Pluvial Flood Risk Assessments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skovgård Olsen, Anders; Zhou, Qianqian; Linde, Jens Jørgen

2015-01-01

Estimating the expected annual damage (EAD) due to flooding in an urban area is of great interest for urban water managers and other stakeholders. It is a strong indicator for a given area showing how vulnerable it is to flood risk and how much can be gained by implementing e.g., climate change...... adaptation measures. This study identifies and compares three different methods for estimating the EAD based on unit costs of flooding of urban assets. One of these methods was used in previous studies and calculates the EAD based on a few extreme events by assuming a log-linear relationship between cost...... of an event and the corresponding return period. This method is compared to methods that are either more complicated or require more calculations. The choice of method by which the EAD is calculated appears to be of minor importance. At all three case study areas it seems more important that there is a shift...

Annual Costs of Care for Pediatric Irritable Bowel Syndrome, Functional Abdominal Pain, and Functional Abdominal Pain Syndrome.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoekman, Daniël R; Rutten, Juliette M T M; Vlieger, Arine M; Benninga, Marc A; Dijkgraaf, Marcel G W

2015-11-01

To estimate annual medical and nonmedical costs of care for children diagnosed with irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) or functional abdominal pain (syndrome; FAP/FAPS). Baseline data from children with IBS or FAP/FAPS who were included in a multicenter trial (NTR2725) in The Netherlands were analyzed. Patients' parents completed a questionnaire concerning usage of healthcare resources, travel costs, out-of-pocket expenses, productivity loss of parents, and supportive measures at school. Use of abdominal pain related prescription medication was derived from case reports forms. Total annual costs per patient were calculated as the sum of direct and indirect medical and nonmedical costs. Costs of initial diagnostic investigations were not included. A total of 258 children, mean age 13.4 years (±5.5), were included, and 183 (70.9%) were female. Total annual costs per patient were estimated to be €2512.31. Inpatient and outpatient healthcare use were major cost drivers, accounting for 22.5% and 35.2% of total annual costs, respectively. Parental productivity loss accounted for 22.2% of total annual costs. No difference was found in total costs between children with IBS or FAP/FAPS. Pediatric abdominal pain related functional gastrointestinal disorders impose a large economic burden on patients' families and healthcare systems. More than one-half of total annual costs of IBS and FAP/FAPS consist of inpatient and outpatient healthcare use. Netherlands Trial Registry: NTR2725. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Morphological and agronomical characterization and estimates of genetic parameters of sesbania Scop. (Leguminosae accessions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Veasey E.A.

1999-01-01

Full Text Available Twenty-two accessions of seven Sesbania (Leguminosae species: S. emerus, S. rostrata, S. tetraptera, S. exasperata (annuals, S. grandiflora, S. sesban and S. virgata (perennials, used for ruminant fodder, firewood, wood products, soil improvement, and human food, were investigated, with the aim of characterizing both inter- and intraspecific genetic variability, estimating genetic parameters for the characters evaluated and appraising the forage potential of the accessions. These were planted at the Instituto de Zootecnia, Nova Odessa, SP, Brazil, in a randomized complete block design with 22 treatments and four replications. Seventeen morphological and 17 agronomic characters were evaluated. Genetic parameters coefficient of intraspecific genetic diversity (bi and coefficient of intraspecific genetic variation (CVgi were obtained for the species represented by more than one accession. Highly significant differences were observed among as well as within species for most characters, showing considerable genetic variability. S. exasperata showed intraspecific genetic variability for the largest number of morphological characters. The same was observed for S. sesban for the agronomic characters. Most of the characters gave high bi values, above 0.80, indicating the possibility of selecting superior genotypes. The CVgi values, on the other hand, which indicate the magnitude of the existing genetic variability relative to the character mean, varied according to the species and character evaluated. Differences between annual and perennial species were observed, with higher biomass yields presented by the annuals at the first cut and by the perennials after the second cut, reaching the highest yield at the third cut. The annual species had higher seed production. Accession NO 934 of S. sesban gave the highest biomass yields and regrowth vigor, showing promise as a forage legume plant.

Preventing land loss in coastal Louisiana: estimates of WTP and WTA.

Science.gov (United States)

Petrolia, Daniel R; Kim, Tae-Goun

2011-03-01

A dichotomous-choice contingent-valuation survey was conducted in the State of Louisiana (USA) to estimate compensating surplus (CS) and equivalent surplus (ES) welfare measures for the prevention of future coastal wetland losses in Louisiana. Valuations were elicited using both willingness to pay (WTP) and willingness to accept compensation (WTA) payment vehicles. Mean CS (WTP) estimates based on a probit model using a Box-Cox specification on income was $825 per household annually, and mean ES (WTA) was estimated at $4444 per household annually. Regression results indicate that the major factors influencing support for land-loss prevention were income (positive, WTP model only), perceived hurricane protection benefits (positive), environmental and recreation protection (positive), distrust of government (negative), age (positive, WTA model only), and race (positive for whites). Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Methodology for estimation of potential for solar water heating in a target area

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pillai, Indu R.; Banerjee, Rangan

2007-01-01

Proper estimation of potential of any renewable energy technology is essential for planning and promotion of the technology. The methods reported in literature for estimation of potential of solar water heating in a target area are aggregate in nature. A methodology for potential estimation (technical, economic and market potential) of solar water heating in a target area is proposed in this paper. This methodology links the micro-level factors and macro-level market effects affecting the diffusion or adoption of solar water heating systems. Different sectors with end uses of low temperature hot water are considered for potential estimation. Potential is estimated at each end use point by simulation using TRNSYS taking micro-level factors. The methodology is illustrated for a synthetic area in India with an area of 2 sq. km and population of 10,000. The end use sectors considered are residential, hospitals, nursing homes and hotels. The estimated technical potential and market potential are 1700 m 2 and 350 m 2 of collector area, respectively. The annual energy savings for the technical potential in the area is estimated as 110 kW h/capita and 0.55 million-kW h/sq. km. area, with an annual average peak saving of 1 MW. The annual savings is 650-kW h per m 2 of collector area and accounts for approximately 3% of the total electricity consumption of the target area. Some of the salient features of the model are the factors considered for potential estimation; estimation of electrical usage pattern for typical day, amount of electricity savings and savings during the peak load. The framework is general and enables accurate estimation of potential of solar water heating for a city, block. Energy planners and policy makers can use this framework for tracking and promotion of diffusion of solar water heating systems. (author)

Petroleum marketing annual, 1991

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-08-01

The Petroleum Marketing Annual contains statistical data on a variety of crude oils and refined petroleum products. The publication provides statistics on crude oil costs and refined petroleum products sales for use by industry, government, private sector analysts, educational institutions, and consumers. Data on crude oil include the domestic first purchase price, the free-on-board and landed cost of imported crude oil, and the refiners' acquisition cost of crude oil. Sales data for motor gasoline, distillates, residuals, aviation fuels, kerosene, and propane are presented. For this publication, all estimates have been recalculated since their earlier publication in the Petroleum Marketing Monthly (PMM). These calculations made use of additional data and corrections that were received after the PMM publication dates

Petroleum marketing annual 1993

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-01-01

The Petroleum Marketing Annual (PMA) contains statistical data on a variety of crude oils and refined petroleum products. The publication provides statistics on crude oil costs and refined petroleum products sales for use by industry, government, private sector analysts, educational institutions, and consumers. Data on crude oil include the domestic first purchase price, the free-on-board (f.o.b.) and landed cost of imported crude oil, and the refiners acquisition cost of crude oil. Sales data for motor gasoline, distillates, residuals, aviation fuels, kerosene, and propane are presented. For this publication, all estimates have been recalculated since their earlier publication in the Petroleum Marketing Monthly (PMM). These calculations made use of additional data and corrections that were received after the PMM publication dates

Coal industry annual 1993

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1994-12-06

Coal Industry Annual 1993 replaces the publication Coal Production (DOE/FIA-0125). This report presents additional tables and expanded versions of tables previously presented in Coal Production, including production, number of mines, Productivity, employment, productive capacity, and recoverable reserves. This report also presents data on coal consumption, coal distribution, coal stocks, coal prices, coal quality, and emissions for a wide audience including the Congress, Federal and State agencies, the coal industry, and the general public. In addition, Appendix A contains a compilation of coal statistics for the major coal-producing States. This report does not include coal consumption data for nonutility Power Producers who are not in the manufacturing, agriculture, mining, construction, or commercial sectors. This consumption is estimated to be 5 million short tons in 1993.

Coal industry annual 1993

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-01-01

Coal Industry Annual 1993 replaces the publication Coal Production (DOE/FIA-0125). This report presents additional tables and expanded versions of tables previously presented in Coal Production, including production, number of mines, Productivity, employment, productive capacity, and recoverable reserves. This report also presents data on coal consumption, coal distribution, coal stocks, coal prices, coal quality, and emissions for a wide audience including the Congress, Federal and State agencies, the coal industry, and the general public. In addition, Appendix A contains a compilation of coal statistics for the major coal-producing States. This report does not include coal consumption data for nonutility Power Producers who are not in the manufacturing, agriculture, mining, construction, or commercial sectors. This consumption is estimated to be 5 million short tons in 1993

Petroleum marketing annual 1993

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1995-01-01

The Petroleum Marketing Annual (PMA) contains statistical data on a variety of crude oils and refined petroleum products. The publication provides statistics on crude oil costs and refined petroleum products sales for use by industry, government, private sector analysts, educational institutions, and consumers. Data on crude oil include the domestic first purchase price, the free-on-board (f.o.b.) and landed cost of imported crude oil, and the refiners acquisition cost of crude oil. Sales data for motor gasoline, distillates, residuals, aviation fuels, kerosene, and propane are presented. For this publication, all estimates have been recalculated since their earlier publication in the Petroleum Marketing Monthly (PMM). These calculations made use of additional data and corrections that were received after the PMM publication dates.

Radiative transfer model for estimation of global solar radiation; Modelo de transferencia radiativa para la estimacion de la radiacion solar global

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pettazzi, A.; Sabon, C. S.; Souto, G. J. A.

2004-07-01

In this work, the efficiency of a radiative transfer model in estimating the annual solar global radiation has been evaluated, over different locations at Galicia, Spain, in clear sky periods. Due to its quantitative significance, special attention has been focused on the analysis of the influence of visibility over the global radiation. By comparison of both estimated and measured global solar radiation along year 2002, a typical annual visibility series was obtained over every location. These visibility values has been analysed in order to identify patterns and typical values, in order to be used to estimate the global solar radiation along a different year. Validation was done over the year 2003, obtaining an annual estimation less than 10 % different to the measured value. (Author)

Healthcare Coinsurance Elasticity Coefficient Estimation Using Monthly Cross-sectional, Time-series Claims Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Scoggins, John F; Weinberg, Daniel A

2017-06-01

Published estimates of the healthcare coinsurance elasticity coefficient have typically relied on annual observations of individual healthcare expenditures even though health plan membership and expenditures are traditionally reported in monthly units and several studies have stressed the need for demand models to recognize the episodic nature of healthcare. Summing individual healthcare expenditures into annual observations complicates two common challenges of statistical inference, heteroscedasticity, and regressor endogeneity. This paper estimates the elasticity coefficient using a monthly panel data model that addresses the heteroscedasticity and endogeneity problems with relative ease. Healthcare claims data from employees of King County, Washington, during 2005 to 2011 were used to estimate the mean point elasticity coefficient: -0.314 (0.015 standard error) to -0.145 (0.015 standard error) depending on model specification. These estimates bracket the -0.2 point estimate (range: -0.22 to -0.17) derived from the famous Rand Health Insurance Experiment. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Evaluating estimators for numbers of females with cubs-of-the-year in the Yellowstone grizzly bear population

Science.gov (United States)

Cherry, S.; White, G.C.; Keating, K.A.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Schwartz, Charles C.

2007-01-01

Current management of the grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) population in Yellowstone National Park and surrounding areas requires annual estimation of the number of adult female bears with cubs-of-the-year. We examined the performance of nine estimators of population size via simulation. Data were simulated using two methods for different combinations of population size, sample size, and coefficient of variation of individual sighting probabilities. We show that the coefficient of variation does not, by itself, adequately describe the effects of capture heterogeneity, because two different distributions of capture probabilities can have the same coefficient of variation. All estimators produced biased estimates of population size with bias decreasing as effort increased. Based on the simulation results we recommend the Chao estimator for model M h be used to estimate the number of female bears with cubs of the year; however, the estimator of Chao and Shen may also be useful depending on the goals of the research.

Estimating the Threshold Level of Inflation for Thailand

OpenAIRE

Jiranyakul, Komain

2017-01-01

Abstract. This paper analyzes the relationship between inflation and economic growth in Thailand using annual dataset during 1990 and 2015. The threshold model is estimated for different levels of threshold inflation rate. The results suggest that the threshold level of inflation above which inflation significantly slow growth is estimated at 3 percent. The negative relationship between inflation and growth is apparent above this threshold level of inflation. In other words, the inflation rat...

EnviroAtlas - Average Annual Precipitation 1981-2010 by HUC12 for the Conterminous United States

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This EnviroAtlas dataset provides the average annual precipitation by 12-digit Hydrologic Unit (HUC). The values were estimated from maps produced by the PRISM...

Annual coded wire tag program (Washington) missing production groups: annual report for 1997; ANNUAL

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Byrne, J.; Fuss, H.; Ashbrook, C.

1998-01-01

The Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) funds the ''Annual Coded Wire Tag Program - Missing Production Groups for Columbia River Hatcheries'' project. The Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW), Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife (ODFW) and the United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) all operate salmon and steelhead rearing programs in the Columbia River basin. The intent of the funding is to coded-wire tag at least one production group of each species at each Columbia Basin hatchery to provide a holistic assessment of survival and catch distribution over time and to meet various measures of the Northwest Power Planning Councils (NWPPC) Fish and Wildlife Program. The WDFW project has three main objectives: (1) coded-wire tag at least one production group of each species at each Columbia Basin hatchery to enable evaluation of survival and catch distribution over time, (2) recover coded-wire tags from the snouts of fish tagged under objective 1 and estimate survival, contribution, and stray rates for each group, and (3) report the findings under objective 2 for all broods of chinook, and coho released from WDFW Columbia Basin hatcheries. Objective 1 for FY-97 was met with few modifications to the original FY-97 proposal. Under Objective 2, snouts containing coded-wire tags that were recovered during FY-97 were decoded. Under Objective 3, survival, contribution and stray rate estimates for the 1991-96 broods of chinook and 1993-96 broods of coho have not been made because recovery data for 1996-97 fisheries and escapement are preliminary. This report summarizes recovery information through 1995

Annual accumulation over the Greenland ice sheet interpolated from historical and newly compiled observation data

Science.gov (United States)

Shen, Dayong; Liu, Yuling; Huang, Shengli

2012-01-01

The estimation of ice/snow accumulation is of great significance in quantifying the mass balance of ice sheets and variation in water resources. Improving the accuracy and reducing uncertainty has been a challenge for the estimation of annual accumulation over the Greenland ice sheet. In this study, we kriged and analyzed the spatial pattern of accumulation based on an observation data series including 315 points used in a recent research, plus 101 ice cores and snow pits and newly compiled 23 coastal weather station data. The estimated annual accumulation over the Greenland ice sheet is 31.2 g cm−2 yr−1, with a standard error of 0.9 g cm−2 yr−1. The main differences between the improved map developed in this study and the recently published accumulation maps are in the coastal areas, especially southeast and southwest regions. The analysis of accumulations versus elevation reveals the distribution patterns of accumulation over the Greenland ice sheet.

Estimation of evaporation from open water - A review of selected studies, summary of U.S. Army Corps of Engineers data collection and methods, and evaluation of two methods for estimation of evaporation from five reservoirs in Texas

Science.gov (United States)

Harwell, Glenn R.

2012-01-01

Organizations responsible for the management of water resources, such as the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), are tasked with estimation of evaporation for water-budgeting and planning purposes. The USACE has historically used Class A pan evaporation data (pan data) to estimate evaporation from reservoirs but many USACE Districts have been experimenting with other techniques for an alternative to collecting pan data. The energy-budget method generally is considered the preferred method for accurate estimation of open-water evaporation from lakes and reservoirs. Complex equations to estimate evaporation, such as the Penman, DeBruin-Keijman, and Priestley-Taylor, perform well when compared with energy-budget method estimates when all of the important energy terms are included in the equations and ideal data are collected. However, sometimes nonideal data are collected and energy terms, such as the change in the amount of stored energy and advected energy, are not included in the equations. When this is done, the corresponding errors in evaporation estimates are not quantifiable. Much simpler methods, such as the Hamon method and a method developed by the U.S. Weather Bureau (USWB) (renamed the National Weather Service in 1970), have been shown to provide reasonable estimates of evaporation when compared to energy-budget method estimates. Data requirements for the Hamon and USWB methods are minimal and sometimes perform well with remotely collected data. The Hamon method requires average daily air temperature, and the USWB method requires daily averages of air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation. Estimates of annual lake evaporation from pan data are frequently within 20 percent of energy-budget method estimates. Results of evaporation estimates from the Hamon method and the USWB method were compared against historical pan data at five selected reservoirs in Texas (Benbrook Lake, Canyon Lake, Granger Lake, Hords Creek Lake, and Sam

Satellite Global and Hemispheric Lower Tropospheric Temperature Annual Temperature Cycle

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael A. Brunke

2010-11-01

Full Text Available Previous analyses of the Earth’s annual cycle and its trends have utilized surface temperature data sets. Here we introduce a new analysis of the global and hemispheric annual cycle using a satellite remote sensing derived data set during the period 1979–2009, as determined from the lower tropospheric (LT channel of the MSU satellite. While the surface annual cycle is tied directly to the heating and cooling of the land areas, the tropospheric annual cycle involves additionally the gain or loss of heat between the surface and atmosphere. The peak in the global tropospheric temperature in the 30 year period occurs on 10 July and the minimum on 9 February in response to the larger land mass in the Northern Hemisphere. The actual dates of the hemispheric maxima and minima are a complex function of many variables which can change from year to year thereby altering these dates.Here we examine the time of occurrence of the global and hemispheric maxima and minima lower tropospheric temperatures, the values of the annual maxima and minima, and the slopes and significance of the changes in these metrics.  The statistically significant trends are all relatively small. The values of the global annual maximum and minimum showed a small, but significant trend. Northern and Southern Hemisphere maxima and minima show a slight trend toward occurring later in the year. Most recent analyses of trends in the global annual cycle using observed surface data have indicated a trend toward earlier maxima and minima.

Annual Energy Review 1993

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1994-07-14

This twelfth edition of the Annual Energy Review (AER) presents the Energy Information Administration`s historical energy statistics. For most series, statistics are given for every year from 1949 through 1993. Because coverage spans four and a half decades, the statistics in this report are well-suited to long-term trend analyses. The AER is comprehensive. It covers all major energy activities, including consumption, production, trade, stocks, and prices, for all major energy commodities, including fossil fuels and electricity. The AER also presents Energy Information Administration (EIA) statistics on some renewable energy sources. EIA estimates that its consumption series include about half of the renewable energy used in the United States. For a more complete discussion of EIA`s renewables data, see p. xix, ``Introducing Expanded Coverage of Renewable Energy Data Into the Historical Consumption Series.`` Copies of the 1993 edition of the Annual Energy Review may be obtained by using the order form in the back of this publication. Most of the data in the 1993 edition also are available on personal computer diskette. For more information about the diskettes, see the back of this publication. In addition, the data are available as part of the National Economic, Social, and Environmental Data Bank on a CD-ROM. For more information about the data bank, contact the US Department of Commerce Economics and Statistics Administration, on 202-482-1986.

Annual Energy Review 1993

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-01-01

This twelfth edition of the Annual Energy Review (AER) presents the Energy Information Administration's historical energy statistics. For most series, statistics are given for every year from 1949 through 1993. Because coverage spans four and a half decades, the statistics in this report are well-suited to long-term trend analyses. The AER is comprehensive. It covers all major energy activities, including consumption, production, trade, stocks, and prices, for all major energy commodities, including fossil fuels and electricity. The AER also presents Energy Information Administration (EIA) statistics on some renewable energy sources. EIA estimates that its consumption series include about half of the renewable energy used in the United States. For a more complete discussion of EIA's renewables data, see p. xix, ''Introducing Expanded Coverage of Renewable Energy Data Into the Historical Consumption Series.'' Copies of the 1993 edition of the Annual Energy Review may be obtained by using the order form in the back of this publication. Most of the data in the 1993 edition also are available on personal computer diskette. For more information about the diskettes, see the back of this publication. In addition, the data are available as part of the National Economic, Social, and Environmental Data Bank on a CD-ROM. For more information about the data bank, contact the US Department of Commerce Economics and Statistics Administration, on 202-482-1986

Estimation of Streamflow Characteristics for Charles M. Russell National Wildlife Refuge, Northeastern Montana

Science.gov (United States)

Sando, Steven K.; Morgan, Timothy J.; Dutton, DeAnn M.; McCarthy, Peter M.

2009-01-01

Charles M. Russell National Wildlife Refuge (CMR) encompasses about 1.1 million acres (including Fort Peck Reservoir on the Missouri River) in northeastern Montana. To ensure that sufficient streamflow remains in the tributary streams to maintain the riparian corridors, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is negotiating water-rights issues with the Reserved Water Rights Compact Commission of Montana. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, conducted a study to gage, for a short period, selected streams that cross CMR, and analyze data to estimate long-term streamflow characteristics for CMR. The long-term streamflow characteristics of primary interest include the monthly and annual 90-, 80-, 50-, and 20-percent exceedance streamflows and mean streamflows (Q.90, Q.80, Q.50, Q.20, and QM, respectively), and the 1.5-, 2-, and 2.33- year peak flows (PK1.5, PK2, and PK2.33, respectively). The Regional Adjustment Relationship (RAR) was investigated for estimating the monthly and annual Q.90, Q.80, Q.50, Q.20, and QM, and the PK1.5, PK2, and PK2.33 for the short-term CMR gaging stations (hereinafter referred to as CMR stations). The RAR was determined to provide acceptable results for estimating the long-term Q.90, Q.80, Q.50, Q.20, and QM on a monthly basis for the months of March through June, and also on an annual basis. For the months of September through January, the RAR regression equations did not provide acceptable results for any long-term streamflow characteristic. For the month of February, the RAR regression equations provided acceptable results for the long-term Q.50 and QM, but poor results for the long-term Q.90, Q.80, and Q.20. For the months of July and August, the RAR provided acceptable results for the long-term Q.50, Q.20, and QM, but poor results for the long-term Q.90 and Q.80. Estimation coefficients were developed for estimating the long-term streamflow characteristics for which the RAR did not provide

Uncertainty estimation of the velocity model for the TrigNet GPS network

Science.gov (United States)

Hackl, Matthias; Malservisi, Rocco; Hugentobler, Urs; Wonnacott, Richard

2010-05-01

Satellite based geodetic techniques - above all GPS - provide an outstanding tool to measure crustal motions. They are widely used to derive geodetic velocity models that are applied in geodynamics to determine rotations of tectonic blocks, to localize active geological features, and to estimate rheological properties of the crust and the underlying asthenosphere. However, it is not a trivial task to derive GPS velocities and their uncertainties from positioning time series. In general time series are assumed to be represented by linear models (sometimes offsets, annual, and semi-annual signals are included) and noise. It has been shown that models accounting only for white noise tend to underestimate the uncertainties of rates derived from long time series and that different colored noise components (flicker noise, random walk, etc.) need to be considered. However, a thorough error analysis including power spectra analyses and maximum likelihood estimates is quite demanding and are usually not carried out for every site, but the uncertainties are scaled by latitude dependent factors. Analyses of the South Africa continuous GPS network TrigNet indicate that the scaled uncertainties overestimate the velocity errors. So we applied a method similar to the Allan Variance that is commonly used in the estimation of clock uncertainties and is able to account for time dependent probability density functions (colored noise) to the TrigNet time series. Finally, we compared these estimates to the results obtained by spectral analyses using CATS. Comparisons with synthetic data show that the noise can be represented quite well by a power law model in combination with a seasonal signal in agreement with previous studies.

Nongrowing season methane emissions-a significant component of annual emissions across northern ecosystems.

Science.gov (United States)

Treat, Claire C; Bloom, A Anthony; Marushchak, Maija E

2018-03-22

Wetlands are the single largest natural source of atmospheric methane (CH 4 ), a greenhouse gas, and occur extensively in the northern hemisphere. Large discrepancies remain between "bottom-up" and "top-down" estimates of northern CH 4 emissions. To explore whether these discrepancies are due to poor representation of nongrowing season CH 4 emissions, we synthesized nongrowing season and annual CH 4 flux measurements from temperate, boreal, and tundra wetlands and uplands. Median nongrowing season wetland emissions ranged from 0.9 g/m 2 in bogs to 5.2 g/m 2 in marshes and were dependent on moisture, vegetation, and permafrost. Annual wetland emissions ranged from 0.9 g m -2  year -1 in tundra bogs to 78 g m -2  year -1 in temperate marshes. Uplands varied from CH 4 sinks to CH 4 sources with a median annual flux of 0.0 ± 0.2 g m -2  year -1 . The measured fraction of annual CH 4 emissions during the nongrowing season (observed: 13% to 47%) was significantly larger than that was predicted by two process-based model ensembles, especially between 40° and 60°N (modeled: 4% to 17%). Constraining the model ensembles with the measured nongrowing fraction increased total nongrowing season and annual CH 4 emissions. Using this constraint, the modeled nongrowing season wetland CH 4 flux from >40° north was 6.1 ± 1.5 Tg/year, three times greater than the nongrowing season emissions of the unconstrained model ensemble. The annual wetland CH 4 flux was 37 ± 7 Tg/year from the data-constrained model ensemble, 25% larger than the unconstrained ensemble. Considering nongrowing season processes is critical for accurately estimating CH 4 emissions from high-latitude ecosystems, and necessary for constraining the role of wetland emissions in a warming climate. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Economics of trees versus annual crops on marginal agricultural lands

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gupta, T.; Mohan, D.

1982-01-01

The results of a study conducted by the CMA in Rajasthan, selected as one of the major problem states because of its hot, arid and drought-prone character, and its present declining agricultural, livestock and fuelwood production coupled with an expansion of the area under annual crops. The present situation in Rajasthan is described and estimates made of returns from current land based enterprises (annual crops and livestock rearing) in comparison with the expected costs and returns of establishing suitable tree crops in the area. The financial and social feasibility of changing land use from annual to tree crops (while maintaining livestock production) is discussed, together with a consideration of some management and policy issues. Six tree species (Acacia tortilis, Albizzia (Albizia) lebbek, Prosopis cineraria, P. juliflora, Zizyphus species and Leucaena leucocephala) were identified as adaptable for the region and the economics of raising each over 1 felling cycle calculated. Depending on the species and cycle length, net annual returns were Rs 360-3270/ha (using a discount factor of 11%), with an expected return of Rs1680/ha if the species were allocated equally; this is considerably better than the expected returns from annual crops and standing farm trees (Rs-40 to Rs30/ha, with or without including the costs of family labor). Fifteen tables in the text and 9 in appendices give detailed breakdowns of costs and returns. 104 references.

FY 1999 annual work plan for infrastructure program WBS 6

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Donley, C.D.

1998-08-27

The Fiscal Year (FY) 1999 DynCorp Annual Work Plan (AWP) relates DOE-RL work breakdown structure (WBS) to Cost Accounts and to Organizational Structure. Each Cost Account includes a workscope narrative and justification performance and service standards, goals, and deliverables. Basis of estimates are included within each Cost Account to demonstrate the relationship of budget to defined workscope. The FY 1999 AWP reflects the planning assumptions and initiatives that are included in the PHMC Strategic Plan for Infrastructure Optimization which was established in FY 1998. Development of the FY 1999 AWP was in accordance with a sequential series of events and efforts described in the Infrastructure Annual Work Planning and Budget Cycle which was developed and established in conjunction with the Strategic Plan. The Strategic Plan covers a rolling five year span of time and is updated at the start of each fiscal year as the beginning of the annual work planning and budget cycle for the following fiscal year. Accordingly the planning for the FY 1999 AWP began in January 1998. Also included in the annual work planning and budget cycle, and the basis for the budget in this AWP, is the development of a requirements-based budget.

Empirical Study on Annual Energy-Saving Performance of Energy Performance Contracting in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hongquan Ruan

2018-05-01

Full Text Available A lack of trust in Energy Service Company (ESCo is the most critical factor affecting the development of Energy Performance Contracting (EPC in China, compared with other constraints. One cannot easily estimate the energy-saving performance of an EPC project. Under that condition, lack of trust may cause the Energy-Consuming Unit (ECU to suspect the energy-saving performance promised by the ESCo, thus leaving potentially profitable projects without necessary funding. Currently, specific studies taking an across-projects viewpoint on annual energy-saving performance of EPC projects in multiple subsectors, objectively and quantitatively, are lacking. This paper studies the regression relationships of annual energy-saving quantity in terms of revamping cost and the regression relationships of annual cost saving in terms of revamping cost. The regression results show that there are statistically significant correlations in the above relationships in the nine subsectors investigated. This is significant for ESCos and ECUs, because knowledge on energy-saving performance could contribute to EPC investment decisions and trust relationships between ESCos and ECUs. Then, a multiple linear regression model of revamping cost is set up to analyze its influencing factors. The model indicates that the subsector the sample belongs to, financing, registered capital of the ESCo, and contract period have significant effects on revamping cost. Thus, policy implications regarding innovation of EE promotion technology, clarifying ESCos’ exit mechanism, innovation of financing mechanism, and improving the market credit environment for promoting investment in EPC projects, are provided.

Aerial estimation of the size of gull breeding colonies

Science.gov (United States)

Kadlec, J.A.; Drury, W.H.

1968-01-01

Counts on photographs and visual estimates of the numbers of territorial gulls are usually reliable indicators of the number of gull nests, but single visual estimates are not adequate to measure the number of nests in individual colonies. To properly interpret gull counts requires that several islands with known numbers of nests be photographed to establish the ratio of gulls to nests applicable for a given local census. Visual estimates are adequate to determine total breeding gull numbers by regions. Neither visual estimates nor photography will reliably detect annual changes of less than about 2.5 percent.

State energy data report 1993: Consumption estimates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1995-07-01

The State Energy Data Report (SEDR) provides annual time series estimates of State-level energy consumption by major economic sector. The estimates are developed in the State Energy Data System (SEDS), which is maintained and operated by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The goal in maintaining SEDS is to create historical time series of energy consumption by State that are defined as consistently as possible over time and across sectors. SEDS exists for two principal reasons: (1) to provide State energy consumption estimates to Members of Congress, Federal and State agencies, and the general public; and (2) to provide the historical series necessary for EIA`s energy models.

Estimates of radionclide export by animals-migrants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frantsevich, L.I.; Komissar, A.D.; Ermakov, A.A.; Kryzhanovskij, V.I.; Sabinevskij, B.V.; Gajchenko, V.A.; Arkhipchuk, V.A.; Panov, G.M.; Mikityuk, A.Yu.; Kolesnik, A.D.

1989-01-01

For estimation of zoogenic radionuclide export from the emergency ChNPP area the following aspects were studied: biomass of dry land animals withing the 30 km area; radionuclide amount in zoomass of settled animals; annual radionuclide export by migrants, a collective dose for a direct take-in way by people. It is revealed that a major part of radionuclides is dispersed to the south and south-east of the accident place. Annual export does not exceed a Curie unit. The upper value of radiocesium absorbed by a man with bird's meat (ducks) was up to 0.1 Ci/yr, the lower value was up to 1400 BER. refs. 7; tabs. 6

AIRDOS-II computer code for estimating radiation dose to man from airborne radionuclides in areas surrouding nuclear facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moore, R.E.

1977-04-01

The AIRDOS-II computer code estimates individual and population doses resulting from the simultaneous atmospheric release of as many as 36 radionuclides from a nuclear facility. This report describes the meteorological and environmental models used is the code, their computer implementation, and the applicability of the code to assessments of radiological impact. Atmospheric dispersion and surface deposition of released radionuclides are estimated as a function of direction and distance from a nuclear power plant or fuel-cycle facility, and doses to man through inhalation, air immersion, exposure to contaminated ground, food ingestion, and water immersion are estimated in the surrounding area. Annual doses are estimated for total body, GI tract, bone, thyroid, lungs, muscle, kidneys, liver, spleen, testes, and ovaries. Either the annual population doses (man-rems/year) or the highest annual individual doses in the assessment area (rems/year), whichever are applicable, are summarized in output tables in several ways--by nuclides, modes of exposure, and organs. The location of the highest individual doses for each reference organ estimated for the area is specified in the output data

Risø annual report 2000

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

2001-01-01

of Governors in November 2000. The new strategy serves as a beacon for the transformation process Risø is undergoing in 2001. This Annual Report shows that we produce ahealthy return on the research funds invested in us, and it is our ambition for this return to grow over the next few years....

Measurement of annual dose on porcelain using surface TLD method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xia Junding; Wang Weida; Leung, P.L.

2001-01-01

In order to improve accuracy of TL authentication test for porcelain, a method of measurement of annual dose using ultrathin (CaSO 4 :Tm) dosage layer on porcelain was studied. The TLD was placed on the part of porcelain without glaze. A comparison of measurement of annual dose for surface TLD, inside TLD and alpha counting on porcelain was made. The results show that this technique is suitable for measuring annual dose and improving accuracy of TL authentication test for both porcelain and pottery

ORIGINAL ARTICLE Estimation of annual occupational effective ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Nagasaki nuclear bomb survivors, who have demonstrated increased ... atomic numbers as soft tissue, and their energy responses to absorbed radiation show little ... suitable thermal treatment, making them cost-effective and viable in the long ...

Mid-Piacensian mean annual sea surface temperature: an analysis for data-model comparisons

Science.gov (United States)

Dowsett, Harry J.; Robinson, Marci M.; Foley, Kevin M.; Stoll, Danielle K.

2010-01-01

Numerical models of the global climate system are the primary tools used to understand and project climate disruptions in the form of future global warming. The Pliocene has been identified as the closest, albeit imperfect, analog to climate conditions expected for the end of this century, making an independent data set of Pliocene conditions necessary for ground truthing model results. Because most climate model output is produced in the form ofmean annual conditions, we present a derivative of the USGS PRISM3 Global Climate Reconstruction which integrates multiple proxies of sea surface temperature (SST) into single surface temperature anomalies. We analyze temperature estimates from faunal and floral assemblage data,Mg/Ca values and alkenone unsaturation indices to arrive at a single mean annual SST anomaly (Pliocene minus modern) best describing each PRISM site, understanding that multiple proxies should not necessarily show concordance. The power of themultiple proxy approach lies within its diversity, as no two proxies measure the same environmental variable. This data set can be used to verify climate model output, to serve as a starting point for model inter-comparisons, and for quantifying uncertainty in Pliocene model prediction in perturbed physics ensembles.

Application of Artificial Neural Networks for estimating index floods

Science.gov (United States)

Šimor, Viliam; Hlavčová, Kamila; Kohnová, Silvia; Szolgay, Ján

2012-12-01

This article presents an application of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and multiple regression models for estimating mean annual maximum discharge (index flood) at ungauged sites. Both approaches were tested for 145 small basins in Slovakia in areas ranging from 20 to 300 km2. Using the objective clustering method, the catchments were divided into ten homogeneous pooling groups; for each pooling group, mutually independent predictors (catchment characteristics) were selected for both models. The neural network was applied as a simple multilayer perceptron with one hidden layer and with a back propagation learning algorithm. Hyperbolic tangents were used as an activation function in the hidden layer. Estimating index floods by the multiple regression models were based on deriving relationships between the index floods and catchment predictors. The efficiencies of both approaches were tested by the Nash-Sutcliffe and a correlation coefficients. The results showed the comparative applicability of both models with slightly better results for the index floods achieved using the ANNs methodology.

Nevada Test Site annual site environmental report for calendar year 1998

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Black, S.C.; Townsend, Y.E.

1999-01-01

Prior to 1989, annual reports of environmental monitoring and assessment results for the Nevada Test Site (NTS) were prepared in two separate parts. Onsite effluent monitoring and environmental monitoring results were reported in an onsite report prepared by the US Department of Energy, Nevada Operations Office (DOE/NV). Results of the Offsite Radiological Surveillance and Long-Term Hydrological Monitoring Programs conducted by the US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Laboratory (various names) in Las Vegas, Nevada, were reported separately by that Agency. Beginning with the 1989 Annual Site Environmental Report for the NTS, these two documents were combined into a single report to provide a more comprehensive annual documentation of the environmental protection activities conducted for the nuclear testing program and other nuclear and non-nuclear operations at the NTS. The two agencies have coordinated preparation of this tenth combined onsite and offsite report through sharing of information on environmental surveillance and releases as well as meteorological, hydrological, and other supporting data used in dose-estimation calculations

Flood frequency estimation by national-scale continuous hydrological simulations: an application in Great Britain

Science.gov (United States)

Formetta, Giuseppe; Stewart, Elizabeth; Bell, Victoria; Reynard, Nick

2017-04-01

Estimation of peak discharge for an assigned return period is a crucial issue in engineering hydrology. It is required for designing and managing hydraulic infrastructure such as dams, reservoirs and bridges. In the UK, the Flood Estimation Handbook (FEH) recommends the use of the index flood method to estimate the design flood as the product of a local scale factor (the index flood, IF) and a dimensionless regional growth factor (GF). For gauged catchments the IF is usually estimated as the median annual maximum flood (QMED), while for ungauged catchments it is computed through multiple linear regression models based on a set of morpho-climatic indices of the basin. The GF is estimated by fitting the annual maxima with the generalised logistic distribution (GL) using two methods depending on the record length and the target return period: single-site or pooled analysis. The single site-analysis estimates the GF from the annual maxima of the subject site alone; the pooled analysis uses data from a set of catchments hydrologically similar to the subject site. In this work estimates of floods up to 100-year return period obtained from the FEH approach are compared to those obtained using Grid-to-Grid, a continuous physically-based hydrological model. The model converts rainfall and potential evapotranspiration into river flows by modelling surface/sub-surface runoff, lateral water movements, and snow-pack. It is configured on a 1km2 grid resolution and it uses spatial datasets of topography, soil, and land cover. It was set up in Great Britain and has been evaluated for the period 1960-2014 in forward-mode (i.e. without parameter calibration) using daily meteorological forcing data. The modelled floods with a given return period (5,10, 30, 50, and 100 years) were computed from the modelled discharge annual maxima and compared to the FEH estimates for 100 catchments in Great Britain. Preliminary results suggest that there is a good agreement between modelled and

Estimates of present and future flood risk in the conterminous United States

Science.gov (United States)

Wing, Oliver E. J.; Bates, Paul D.; Smith, Andrew M.; Sampson, Christopher C.; Johnson, Kris A.; Fargione, Joseph; Morefield, Philip

2018-03-01

Past attempts to estimate rainfall-driven flood risk across the US either have incomplete coverage, coarse resolution or use overly simplified models of the flooding process. In this paper, we use a new 30 m resolution model of the entire conterminous US with a 2D representation of flood physics to produce estimates of flood hazard, which match to within 90% accuracy the skill of local models built with detailed data. These flood depths are combined with exposure datasets of commensurate resolution to calculate current and future flood risk. Our data show that the total US population exposed to serious flooding is 2.6-3.1 times higher than previous estimates, and that nearly 41 million Americans live within the 1% annual exceedance probability floodplain (compared to only 13 million when calculated using FEMA flood maps). We find that population and GDP growth alone are expected to lead to significant future increases in exposure, and this change may be exacerbated in the future by climate change.

Global Analysis of Empirical Relationships Between Annual Climate and Seasonality of NDVI

Science.gov (United States)

Potter, C. S.

1997-01-01

This study describes the use of satellite data to calibrate a new climate-vegetation greenness function for global change studies. We examined statistical relationships between annual climate indexes (temperature, precipitation, and surface radiation) and seasonal attributes of the AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series for the mid-1980s in order to refine our empirical understanding of intraannual patterns and global abiotic controls on natural vegetation dynamics. Multiple linear regression results using global l(sup o) gridded data sets suggest that three climate indexes: growing degree days, annual precipitation total, and an annual moisture index together can account to 70-80 percent of the variation in the NDVI seasonal extremes (maximum and minimum values) for the calibration year 1984. Inclusion of the same climate index values from the previous year explained no significant additional portion of the global scale variation in NDVI seasonal extremes. The monthly timing of NDVI extremes was closely associated with seasonal patterns in maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall, with lag times of 1 to 2 months. We separated well-drained areas from l(sup o) grid cells mapped as greater than 25 percent inundated coverage for estimation of both the magnitude and timing of seasonal NDVI maximum values. Predicted monthly NDVI, derived from our climate-based regression equations and Fourier smoothing algorithms, shows good agreement with observed NDVI at a series of ecosystem test locations from around the globe. Regions in which NDVI seasonal extremes were not accurately predicted are mainly high latitude ecosystems and other remote locations where climate station data are sparse.

Estimating Sustainable Live-Coral Harvest at Kamiali Wildlife Management Area, Papua New Guinea.

Science.gov (United States)

Longenecker, Ken; Bolick, Holly; Langston, Ross

2015-01-01

Live coral is harvested throughout the Indo-West Pacific to make lime, used in the consumption of the world's fourth-most consumed drug, betel nut. Coral harvesting is an environmental concern; however, because lime-making is one of the few sources of income in some areas of Papua New Guinea (PNG), the practice is unlikely to stop. To better manage coral harvest, we used standard fishery-yield methods to generate sustainable-harvest guidelines for corymbose Acropora species found on the reef flat and crest at Lababia, PNG. We constructed a yield curve (weight-specific net annual-dry-weight production) by: 1) describing the allometric relationship between colony size and dry weight, and using that relationship to estimate the dry weight of Acropora colonies in situ; 2) estimating annual growth of Acropora colonies by estimating in situ, and describing the relationship between, colony dry weight at the beginning and end of one year; and 3) conducting belt-transect surveys to describe weight-frequencies and ultimately to predict annual weight change per square meter for each weight class. Reef habitat covers a total 2,467,550 m2 at Lababia and produces an estimated 248,397 kg/y (dry weight) of corymbose Acropora, of which 203,897 kg is produced on the reef flat/crest. We conservatively estimate that 30,706.6 kg of whole, dry, corymbose, Acropora can be sustainably harvested from the reef flat/crest habitat each year provided each culled colony weighs at least 1805 g when dry (or is at least 46 cm along its major axis). Artisanal lime-makers convert 24.8% of whole-colony weight into marketable lime, thus we estimate 7615.2 g of lime can be sustainably produced annually from corymbose Acropora. This value incorporates several safety margins, and should lead to proper management of live coral harvest. Importantly, the guideline recognizes village rights to exploit its marine resources, is consistent with village needs for income, and balances an equally strong village

Estimating Sustainable Live-Coral Harvest at Kamiali Wildlife Management Area, Papua New Guinea.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ken Longenecker

Full Text Available Live coral is harvested throughout the Indo-West Pacific to make lime, used in the consumption of the world's fourth-most consumed drug, betel nut. Coral harvesting is an environmental concern; however, because lime-making is one of the few sources of income in some areas of Papua New Guinea (PNG, the practice is unlikely to stop. To better manage coral harvest, we used standard fishery-yield methods to generate sustainable-harvest guidelines for corymbose Acropora species found on the reef flat and crest at Lababia, PNG. We constructed a yield curve (weight-specific net annual-dry-weight production by: 1 describing the allometric relationship between colony size and dry weight, and using that relationship to estimate the dry weight of Acropora colonies in situ; 2 estimating annual growth of Acropora colonies by estimating in situ, and describing the relationship between, colony dry weight at the beginning and end of one year; and 3 conducting belt-transect surveys to describe weight-frequencies and ultimately to predict annual weight change per square meter for each weight class. Reef habitat covers a total 2,467,550 m2 at Lababia and produces an estimated 248,397 kg/y (dry weight of corymbose Acropora, of which 203,897 kg is produced on the reef flat/crest. We conservatively estimate that 30,706.6 kg of whole, dry, corymbose, Acropora can be sustainably harvested from the reef flat/crest habitat each year provided each culled colony weighs at least 1805 g when dry (or is at least 46 cm along its major axis. Artisanal lime-makers convert 24.8% of whole-colony weight into marketable lime, thus we estimate 7615.2 g of lime can be sustainably produced annually from corymbose Acropora. This value incorporates several safety margins, and should lead to proper management of live coral harvest. Importantly, the guideline recognizes village rights to exploit its marine resources, is consistent with village needs for income, and balances an equally

Sea level anomaly on the Patagonian continental shelf: Trends, annual patterns and geostrophic flows

Science.gov (United States)

Saraceno, M.; Piola, A. R.; Strub, P. T.

2016-01-01

Abstract We study the annual patterns and linear trend of satellite sea level anomaly (SLA) over the southwest South Atlantic continental shelf (SWACS) between 54ºS and 36ºS. Results show that south of 42°S the thermal steric effect explains nearly 100% of the annual amplitude of the SLA, while north of 42°S it explains less than 60%. This difference is due to the halosteric contribution. The annual wind variability plays a minor role over the whole continental shelf. The temporal linear trend in SLA ranges between 1 and 5 mm/yr (95% confidence level). The largest linear trends are found north of 39°S, at 42°S and at 50°S. We propose that in the northern region the large positive linear trends are associated with local changes in the density field caused by advective effects in response to a southward displacement of the South Atlantic High. The causes of the relative large SLA trends in two southern coastal regions are discussed as a function meridional wind stress and river discharge. Finally, we combined the annual cycle of SLA with the mean dynamic topography to estimate the absolute geostrophic velocities. This approach provides the first comprehensive description of the seasonal component of SWACS circulation based on satellite observations. The general circulation of the SWACS is northeastward with stronger/weaker geostrophic currents in austral summer/winter. At all latitudes, geostrophic velocities are larger (up to 20 cm/s) close to the shelf‐break and decrease toward the coast. This spatio‐temporal pattern is more intense north of 45°S. PMID:27840784

Manitoba Energy and Mines annual report 1998-1999

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1999-03-01

This annual report states the objectives and achievements of each of the Department of Energy and Mines branches in the same sequence as in the Dept.'s appropriation structure in the Main Estimates of the Expenditure for the Province. Details of the Dept.'s financial performance, together with a 5 year historical table of departmental spending and staffing levels, are provided in the Financial Information Section. Manitoba's oil and gas sector, though small by regional or international standards, is a significant part of the provincial economy. In 1998, Manitoba produced 634,071 cubic m of oil having a total value of about 27% of the province's refined petroleum products needs. In 1998, the petroleum industry spend more than $61 million in Manitoba to explore and develop new oil pools, and to operate the approximately 1,900 active wells in the province. The petroleum industry employs directly and indirectly over 600 people. In 1998/99, royalties, production taxes and revenue from the leasing of Crown owned oil and gas rights added $34 million to the Provincial treasury. The Petroleum and Energy Branch administers the Oil and Gas Act regulations governing the exploration, development, production, transportation and storage of crude oil and natural gas. The Dept. in conjunction with the Manitoba Oil Museum hosted the 1998 Manitoba Oil Show. Manitobans spend about $2.8 billion annually to heat and light their homes, power business, industry and agriculture and fuel their transportation needs. The installed provincial electrical generating capacity is 5,137 megawatts, and the Branch administers the Energy Act. refs

Groundwater recharge estimation under semi arid climate: Case of Northern Gafsa watershed, Tunisia

Science.gov (United States)

Melki, Achraf; Abdollahi, Khodayar; Fatahi, Rouhallah; Abida, Habib

2017-08-01

Natural groundwater recharge under semi arid climate, like rainfall, is subjected to large variations in both time and space and is therefore very difficult to predict. Nevertheless, in order to set up any strategy for water resources management in such regions, understanding the groundwater recharge variability is essential. This work is interested in examining the impact of rainfall on the aquifer system recharge in the Northern Gafsa Plain in Tunisia. The study is composed of two main parts. The first is interested in the analysis of rainfall spatial and temporal variability in the study basin while the second is devoted to the simulation of groundwater recharge. Rainfall analysis was performed based on annual precipitation data recorded in 6 rainfall stations over a period of 56 years (1960-2015). Potential evapotranspiration data were also collected from 1960 to 2011 (52 years). The hydrologic distributed model WetSpass was used for the estimation of groundwater recharge. Model calibration was performed based on an assessment of the agreement between the sum of recharge and runoff values estimated by the WetSpass hydrological model and those obtained by the climatic method. This latter is based on the difference calculated between rainfall and potential evapotranspiration recorded at each rainy day. Groundwater recharge estimation, on monthly scale, showed that average annual precipitation (183.3 mm/year) was partitioned to 5, 15.3, 36.8, and 42.8% for interception, runoff, actual evapotranspiration and recharge respectively.

How does the terrestrial carbon exchange respond to inter-annual climatic variations? A quantification based on atmospheric CO2 data

Science.gov (United States)

Rödenbeck, Christian; Zaehle, Sönke; Keeling, Ralph; Heimann, Martin

2018-04-01

The response of the terrestrial net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 to climate variations and trends may crucially determine the future climate trajectory. Here we directly quantify this response on inter-annual timescales by building a linear regression of inter-annual NEE anomalies against observed air temperature anomalies into an atmospheric inverse calculation based on long-term atmospheric CO2 observations. This allows us to estimate the sensitivity of NEE to inter-annual variations in temperature (seen as a climate proxy) resolved in space and with season. As this sensitivity comprises both direct temperature effects and the effects of other climate variables co-varying with temperature, we interpret it as inter-annual climate sensitivity. We find distinct seasonal patterns of this sensitivity in the northern extratropics that are consistent with the expected seasonal responses of photosynthesis, respiration, and fire. Within uncertainties, these sensitivity patterns are consistent with independent inferences from eddy covariance data. On large spatial scales, northern extratropical and tropical inter-annual NEE variations inferred from the NEE-T regression are very similar to the estimates of an atmospheric inversion with explicit inter-annual degrees of freedom. The results of this study offer a way to benchmark ecosystem process models in more detail than existing effective global climate sensitivities. The results can also be used to gap-fill or extrapolate observational records or to separate inter-annual variations from longer-term trends.

Annual report 1992-93

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-01-01

Activities of the various constituent units of the Department of Atomic Energy (DAE) and also of the institutions financially aided by DAE during the financial year 1992-93 are reported. The various constituent Units of DAE consist of research establishments, public sector undertakings and industrial organisations. These activities cover the gamut of nuclear fuel cycle, research and development in nuclear science and reactor technology, applications of radiation and radioisotopes, radiation protection, research and development in frontline areas such as robotics, lasers, parallel processing etc. The activities are described under the headings : General Survey, Research and Development, Public Sector Undertakings, Industrial Organisations, Aided Institutions, Other Activities, and Services. Other activities of DAE include international relations, emergency planning, training, technology transfer etc. Service activities include materials management, construction work, publicity and information work etc. Some of the highlights of the year's work are: (1)Unit-1 of the Kakrapar Atomic Power Project (KAPP) attained criticality and was synchronised with the western grid, (2) Unit-2 of the Narora Atomic Power Station (NAPS) began commercial production, (3) the heavy water enrichment plant at Hazira was commissioned (4) thorium bundles were used in KAPP-1 to achieve an efficient power flattening, (5) a thorium plant was commissioned at Chhatrapur, Orissa, and (6) the annual gross generation of electricity by nuclear power stations during 1992-93 is estimated to reach about 6600 MUs. The text is illustrated with a number of coloured photographs. A chart showing the organisational structure of atomic energy administration of the country and a map of India showing locations of various atomic energy establishments, spread all over the country are also given. (M.G.B.)

Report on some methods of determining the state of convergence of Monte Carlo risk estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Orford, J.L.; Hufton, D.; Johnson, K.

1991-05-01

The Department of the Environment is developing a methodology for assessing potential sites for the disposal of low and intermediate level radioactive wastes. Computer models are used to simulate the groundwater transport of radioactive materials from a disposal facility back to man. Monte Carlo methods are being employed to conduct a probabilistic risk assessment (pra) of potential sites. The models calculate time histories of annual radiation dose to the critical group population. The annual radiation dose to the critical group in turn specifies the annual individual risk. The distribution of dose is generally highly skewed and many simulation runs are required to predict the level of confidence in the risk estimate i.e. to determine whether the risk estimate is converged. This report describes some statistical methods for determining the state of convergence of the risk estimate. The methods described include the Shapiro-Wilk test, calculation of skewness and kurtosis and normal probability plots. A method for forecasting the number of samples needed before the risk estimate is converged is presented. Three case studies were conducted to examine the performance of some of these techniques. (author)

Inter-annual Variations in Snow/Firn Density over the Greenland Ice Sheet by Combining GRACE gravimetry and Envisat Altimetry

Science.gov (United States)

Su, X.; Shum, C. K.; Guo, J.; Howat, I.; Jezek, K. C.; Luo, Z.; Zhou, Z.

2017-12-01

Satellite altimetry has been used to monitor elevation and volume change of polar ice sheets since the 1990s. In order to derive mass change from the measured volume change, different density assumptions are commonly used in the research community, which may cause discrepancies on accurately estimating ice sheets mass balance. In this study, we investigate the inter-annual anomalies of mass change from GRACE gravimetry and elevation change from Envisat altimetry during years 2003-2009, with the objective of determining inter-annual variations of snow/firn density over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS). High positive correlations (0.6 or higher) between these two inter-annual anomalies at are found over 93% of the GrIS, which suggests that both techniques detect the same geophysical process at the inter-annual timescale. Interpreting the two anomalies in terms of near surface density variations, over 80% of the GrIS, the inter-annual variation in average density is between the densities of snow and pure ice. In particular, at the Summit of Central Greenland, we validate the satellite data estimated density with the in situ data available from 75 snow pits and 9 ice cores. This study provides constraints on the currently applied density assumptions for the GrIS.

Estimates of ground-water pumpage from the Yakima River Basin aquifer system, Washington, 1960-2000

Science.gov (United States)

Vaccaro, J.J.; Sumioka, S.S.

2006-01-01

Ground-water pumpage in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, was estimated for eight categories of use for 1960-2000 as part of an investigation to assess groundwater availability in the basin. Methods used, pumpage estimates, reliability of the estimates, and a comparison with appropriated quantities are described. The eight categories of pumpage were public water supply, self-supplied domestic (exempt wells), irrigation, frost protection, livestock and dairy operations, industrial and commercial, fish and wildlife propagation, and ground-water claims. Pumpage estimates were based on methods that varied by the category and primarily represent pumpage for groundwater rights. Washington State Department of Ecology’s digital database has 2,874 active ground-water rights in the basin that can withdraw an annual quantity of about 529,231 acre-feet during dry years. Irrigation rights are for irrigation of about 129,570 acres. All but 220 of the rights were associated with well drillers’ logs, allowing for a spatial representation of the pumpage. Five-hundred and sixty of the irrigation rights were estimated to be standby/reserve rights. During this study, another 30 rights were identified that were not in the digital database. These rights can withdraw an annual quantity of about 20,969 acre-feet; about 6,700 acre-feet of these rights are near but outside the basin. In 1960, total annual pumpage in the basin, excluding standby/reserve pumpage, was about 115,776 acre-feet. By 2000, total annual pumpage was estimated to be 395,096 acre-feet, and excluding the standby/reserve rights, the total was 312,284 acre-feet. Irrigation accounts for about 60 percent of the pumpage, followed by public water supply at about 12 percent. The smallest category of pumpage was for livestock use with pumpage estimated to be 6,726 acre-feet. Total annual pumpage in 2000 was about 430 cubic feet per second, which is about 11 percent of the surface-water demand. Maximum pumpage is in July

Measuring hospital-acquired pressure injuries: A surveillance programme for monitoring performance improvement and estimating annual prevalence.

Science.gov (United States)

Jull, Andrew; McCall, Elaine; Chappell, Matt; Tobin, Sam

2016-06-01

To describe a surveillance approach for monitoring the effect of improvement initiatives on hospital-acquired pressure injuries and findings arising from that surveillance. Random sampling of patients on the same day of each successive month from a campus of child and adult hospitals using a standard audit tool to identify presence of hospital-acquired pressure injury. Where multiple pressure injuries were present, the most severe grade injury contributed to prevalence. Statistical process control charts were used to monitor monthly performance and Maximum Likelihood Estimation to determine timing of step change. 8274 patients were assessed over 3 years from an eligible population of 32,259 hospitalised patients. 517 patients had hospital-acquired pressure injuries giving an overall prevalence of 6.2% (95% CI 5.7-6.8%). Annual prevalence was 8.4% (95% CI 7.4-9.5%) in the first year, falling to 5.6% (95% CI 4.7-6.4%) in the second year and 4.8% (95% CI 4.0-5.6%) in the third year. A step change was signalled with mean prevalence up to July 2013 being 7.9% (95% CI 7.1-8.8%) and mean prevalence thereafter 4.8% (95% CI 4.2-5.4%). Hospital-acquired pressure injuries were found in all age ranges, but were more frequent in children up to 14 years (17.4%) and those aged 75 years or older (38.7%). Monthly random sampling of patients within clinical units can be used to monitor performance improvement. This approach represents a rational alternative to cross-sectional prevalence surveys especially if the focus is on performance improvement. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sub-annual paleoenvironmental information evaluated from intensity variations of fluorescent annual layers in a stalagmite from Ryuo-do Cave, Nagasaki Prefecture, western Japan

Science.gov (United States)

Sasaki, Hana; Onishi, Yuri; Ishihara, Yoshiro; Yoshimura, Kazuhisa

2017-04-01

vary stratigraphically, and multiple types of fluorescence intensity pattern are observed in the stalagmite. When the co-precipitation of FA is governed by the hiatus model, it is suggested that a gradual increase in the annual layers will result from a large accumulation of calcite after the annual peak in the FA concentration, whereas there will be a gradual decrease if the main growth occurs before the annual peak in FA concentration. However, in the case of the PC model, a gradually increasing type of pattern is formed if the main growth occurs before the annual peak in FA concentration, and a gradually decreasing type is formed if the main growth occurs afterwards. If the annual peak of FA concentration occurs several months after high summer, it is suggested that intervals showing a gradually increasing type were formed in winter, and intervals showing a gradually decreasing type were formed in the early summer, in the case of the hiatus model. In the case of PC model, the seasons are reversed. In the climatic environment around the Ryuo-do Cave, the growth rates of stalagmites are affected by cave air circulation in winter and by rainfall (rainy season) in early summer.

Global inter-annual gravity changes from GRACE: Early results

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Hinderer, J.

2005-01-01

with an accuracy of 0.4 muGal corresponding to 9 mm water thickness on spatial scales longer than 1300 km. Four of the most widely used global hydrological models have been investigated for their spatial comparison with GRACE observations of inter-annual gravity field variations due to changes in continental water...... storage. The Global Land Data Assimilation System model has a spatial correlation coefficient with GRACE observations of 0.65 over the northern hemisphere. This demonstrates that the observed gravity field changes on these scales are largely related to changes in continental water storage.......Fifteen monthly gravity field solutions from the GRACE twin satellites launched more than two years ago have been studied to estimate gravity field changes between 2002 and 2003. The results demonstrate that GRACE is capable of capturing the changes in ground water on inter-annual scales...

The role of storage dynamics in annual wheat prices

Science.gov (United States)

Schewe, Jacob; Otto, Christian; Frieler, Katja

2017-05-01

Identifying the drivers of global crop price fluctuations is essential for estimating the risks of unexpected weather-induced production shortfalls and for designing optimal response measures. Here we show that with a consistent representation of storage dynamics, a simple supply-demand model can explain most of the observed variations in wheat prices over the last 40 yr solely based on time series of annual production and long term demand trends. Even the most recent price peaks in 2007/08 and 2010/11 can be explained by additionally accounting for documented changes in countries’ trade policies and storage strategies, without the need for external drivers such as oil prices or speculation across different commodity or stock markets. This underlines the critical sensitivity of global prices to fluctuations in production. The consistent inclusion of storage into a dynamic supply-demand model closes an important gap when it comes to exploring potential responses to future crop yield variability under climate and land-use change.

An Innovative Method for Estimating Soil Retention at a ...

Science.gov (United States)

Planning for a sustainable future should include an accounting of services currently provided by ecosystems such as erosion control. Retention of soil improves fertility, increases water retention, and decreases sedimentation in streams and rivers. Landscapes patterns that facilitate these services could help reduce costs for flood control, dredging of reservoirs and waterways, while maintaining habitat for fish and other species important to recreational and tourism industries. Landscape scale geospatial data available for the continental United States was leveraged to estimate sediment erosion (RUSLE-based, Renard, et al. 1997) employing recent geospatial techniques of sediment delivery ratio (SDR) estimation (Cavalli, et al. 2013). The approach was designed to derive a quantitative approximation of the ecological services provided by vegetative cover, management practices, and other surface features with respect to protecting soils from the erosion processes of detachment, transport, and deposition. Quantities of soil retained on the landscape and potential erosion for multiple land cover scenarios relative to current (NLCD 2011) conditions were calculated for each calendar month, and summed to yield annual estimations at a 30-meter grid cell. Continental-scale data used included MODIS NDVI data (2000-2014) to estimate monthly USLE C-factors, gridded soil survey geographic (gSSURGO) soils data (annual USLE K factor), PRISM rainfall data (monthly USLE

Annual report 1973

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1973-01-01

The GKSS scientific annual report summarizes the problems and results of the research and development projects of 1973. In contrast to earlier annual reports, a comprehensive description of the research facilities is not included. The annual report was extended by the paragraph 'Financial Report 1973' in the chapter 'Development of Geesthacht Research Centre'. The financial report gives a survey of the financial transactions and the major operations of the year under review. (orig./AK) [de

The annual cycle of African climate and its variability | Jury | Water SA

African Journals Online (AJOL)

low) annual cycle correspond with La Nina (El Nino) and increased (decreased) inter-annual fluctuations of the African climate. A composite analysis shows that the South Atlantic Hadley cell and standing waves in the subtropical jet may connect ...

Annual earnings announcements and market reaction: The case of a small capital market

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lønroth, Helle Langhoff; Møller, Peder Fredslund; Thinggaard, Frank

suggest that only a model based on reported IBES-estimates of earnings per share shortly before earnings release is descriptive of the market´s expectations. Some of these findings contradict the results in the only published 17 year old Danish event study on annual earnings announcements...

Estimating mountain basin-mean precipitation from streamflow using Bayesian inference

Science.gov (United States)

Henn, Brian; Clark, Martyn P.; Kavetski, Dmitri; Lundquist, Jessica D.

2015-10-01

Estimating basin-mean precipitation in complex terrain is difficult due to uncertainty in the topographical representativeness of precipitation gauges relative to the basin. To address this issue, we use Bayesian methodology coupled with a multimodel framework to infer basin-mean precipitation from streamflow observations, and we apply this approach to snow-dominated basins in the Sierra Nevada of California. Using streamflow observations, forcing data from lower-elevation stations, the Bayesian Total Error Analysis (BATEA) methodology and the Framework for Understanding Structural Errors (FUSE), we infer basin-mean precipitation, and compare it to basin-mean precipitation estimated using topographically informed interpolation from gauges (PRISM, the Parameter-elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model). The BATEA-inferred spatial patterns of precipitation show agreement with PRISM in terms of the rank of basins from wet to dry but differ in absolute values. In some of the basins, these differences may reflect biases in PRISM, because some implied PRISM runoff ratios may be inconsistent with the regional climate. We also infer annual time series of basin precipitation using a two-step calibration approach. Assessment of the precision and robustness of the BATEA approach suggests that uncertainty in the BATEA-inferred precipitation is primarily related to uncertainties in hydrologic model structure. Despite these limitations, time series of inferred annual precipitation under different model and parameter assumptions are strongly correlated with one another, suggesting that this approach is capable of resolving year-to-year variability in basin-mean precipitation.

Use of a forest sapwood area index to explain long-term variability in mean annual evapotranspiration and streamflow in moist eucalypt forests

Science.gov (United States)

Benyon, Richard G.; Lane, Patrick N. J.; Jaskierniak, Dominik; Kuczera, George; Haydon, Shane R.

2015-07-01

Mean sapwood thickness, measured in fifteen 73 year old Eucalyptus regnans and E. delegatensis stands, correlated strongly with forest overstorey stocking density (R2 0.72). This curvilinear relationship was used with routine forest stocking density and basal area measurements to estimate sapwood area of the forest overstorey at various times in 15 research catchments in undisturbed and disturbed forests located in the Great Dividing Range, Victoria, Australia. Up to 45 years of annual precipitation and streamflow data available from the 15 catchments were used to examine relationships between mean annual loss (evapotranspiration estimated as mean annual precipitation minus mean annual streamflow), and sapwood area. Catchment mean sapwood area correlated strongly (R2 0.88) with catchment mean annual loss. Variation in sapwood area accounted for 68% more variation in mean annual streamflow than precipitation alone (R2 0.90 compared with R2 0.22). Changes in sapwood area accounted for 96% of the changes in mean annual loss observed after forest thinning or clear-cutting and regeneration. We conclude that forest inventory data can be used reliably to predict spatial and temporal variation in catchment annual losses and streamflow in response to natural and imposed disturbances in even-aged forests. Consequently, recent advances in mapping of sapwood area using airborne light detection and ranging will enable high resolution spatial and temporal mapping of mean annual loss and mean annual streamflow over large areas of forested catchment. This will be particularly beneficial in management of water resources from forested catchments subject to disturbance but lacking reliable long-term (years to decades) streamflow records.

Characteristics and Impact Factors of Parameter Alpha in the Nonlinear Advection-Aridity Method for Estimating Evapotranspiration at Interannual Scale in the Loess Plateau

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, H.; Liu, W.; Ning, T.

2017-12-01

Land surface actual evapotranspiration plays a key role in the global water and energy cycles. Accurate estimation of evapotranspiration is crucial for understanding the interactions between the land surface and the atmosphere, as well as for managing water resources. The nonlinear advection-aridity approach was formulated by Brutsaert to estimate actual evapotranspiration in 2015. Subsequently, this approach has been verified, applied and developed by many scholars. The estimation, impact factors and correlation analysis of the parameter alpha (αe) of this approach has become important aspects of the research. According to the principle of this approach, the potential evapotranspiration (ETpo) (taking αe as 1) and the apparent potential evapotranspiration (ETpm) were calculated using the meteorological data of 123 sites of the Loess Plateau and its surrounding areas. Then the mean spatial values of precipitation (P), ETpm and ETpo for 13 catchments were obtained by a CoKriging interpolation algorithm. Based on the runoff data of the 13 catchments, actual evapotranspiration was calculated using the catchment water balance equation at the hydrological year scale (May to April of the following year) by ignoring the change of catchment water storage. Thus, the parameter was estimated, and its relationships with P, ETpm and aridity index (ETpm/P) were further analyzed. The results showed that the general range of annual parameter value was 0.385-1.085, with an average value of 0.751 and a standard deviation of 0.113. The mean annual parameter αe value showed different spatial characteristics, with lower values in northern and higher values in southern. The annual scale parameter linearly related with annual P (R2=0.89) and ETpm (R2=0.49), while it exhibited a power function relationship with the aridity index (R2=0.83). Considering the ETpm is a variable in the nonlinear advection-aridity approach in which its effect has been incorporated, the relationship of

Using the soil and water assessment tool to estimate dissolved inorganic nitrogen water pollution abatement cost functions in central portugal.

Science.gov (United States)

Roebeling, P C; Rocha, J; Nunes, J P; Fidélis, T; Alves, H; Fonseca, S

2014-01-01

Coastal aquatic ecosystems are increasingly affected by diffuse source nutrient water pollution from agricultural activities in coastal catchments, even though these ecosystems are important from a social, environmental and economic perspective. To warrant sustainable economic development of coastal regions, we need to balance marginal costs from coastal catchment water pollution abatement and associated marginal benefits from coastal resource appreciation. Diffuse-source water pollution abatement costs across agricultural sectors are not easily determined given the spatial heterogeneity in biophysical and agro-ecological conditions as well as the available range of best agricultural practices (BAPs) for water quality improvement. We demonstrate how the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) can be used to estimate diffuse-source water pollution abatement cost functions across agricultural land use categories based on a stepwise adoption of identified BAPs for water quality improvement and corresponding SWAT-based estimates for agricultural production, agricultural incomes, and water pollution deliveries. Results for the case of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) surface water pollution by the key agricultural land use categories ("annual crops," "vineyards," and "mixed annual crops & vineyards") in the Vouga catchment in central Portugal show that no win-win agricultural practices are available within the assessed BAPs for DIN water quality improvement. Estimated abatement costs increase quadratically in the rate of water pollution abatement, with largest abatement costs for the "mixed annual crops & vineyards" land use category (between 41,900 and 51,900 € tDIN yr) and fairly similar abatement costs across the "vineyards" and "annual crops" land use categories (between 7300 and 15,200 € tDIN yr). Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Annual layering in the NGRIP ice core during the Eemian

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Svensson

2011-12-01

Full Text Available The Greenland NGRIP ice core continuously covers the period from present day back to 123 ka before present, which includes several thousand years of ice from the previous interglacial period, MIS 5e or the Eemian. In the glacial part of the core, annual layers can be identified from impurity records and visual stratigraphy, and stratigraphic layer counting has been performed back to 60 ka. In the deepest part of the core, however, the ice is close to the pressure melting point, the visual stratigraphy is dominated by crystal boundaries, and annual layering is not visible to the naked eye. In this study, we apply a newly developed setup for high-resolution ice core impurity analysis to produce continuous records of dust, sodium and ammonium concentrations as well as conductivity of melt water. We analyzed three 2.2 m sections of ice from the Eemian and the glacial inception. In all of the analyzed ice, annual layers can clearly be recognized, most prominently in the dust and conductivity profiles. Part of the samples is, however, contaminated in dust, most likely from drill liquid. It is interesting that the annual layering is preserved despite a very active crystal growth and grain boundary migration in the deep and warm NGRIP ice. Based on annual layer counting of the new records, we determine a mean annual layer thickness close to 11 mm for all three sections, which, to first order, confirms the modeled NGRIP time scale (ss09sea. The counting does, however, suggest a longer duration of the climatically warmest part of the NGRIP record (MIS5e of up to 1 ka as compared to the model estimate. Our results suggest that stratigraphic layer counting is possible basically throughout the entire NGRIP ice core, provided sufficiently highly-resolved profiles become available.

Quantification of Impact of Orbital Drift on Inter-Annual Trends in AVHRR NDVI Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jyoteshwar R. Nagol

2014-07-01

Full Text Available The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI time-series data derived from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR have been extensively used for studying inter-annual dynamics of global and regional vegetation. However, there can be significant uncertainties in the data due to incomplete atmospheric correction and orbital drift of the satellites through their active life. Access to location specific quantification of uncertainty is crucial for appropriate evaluation of the trends and anomalies. This paper provides per pixel quantification of orbital drift related spurious trends in Long Term Data Record (LTDR AVHRR NDVI data product. The magnitude and direction of the spurious trends was estimated by direct comparison with data from MODerate resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS Aqua instrument, which has stable inter-annual sun-sensor geometry. The maps show presence of both positive as well as negative spurious trends in the data. After application of the BRDF correction, an overall decrease in positive trends and an increase in number of pixels with negative spurious trends were observed. The mean global spurious inter-annual NDVI trend before and after BRDF correction was 0.0016 and −0.0017 respectively. The research presented in this paper gives valuable insight into the magnitude of orbital drift related trends in the AVHRR NDVI data as well as the degree to which it is being rectified by the MODIS BRDF correction algorithm used by the LTDR processing stream.

Annual tree rings in Piptadenia gonoacantha (Mart. J.F.Macbr. in a restoration experiment in the Atlantic Forest: potential for dendroecological research

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Arno Fritz das Neves Brandes

2016-01-01

Full Text Available ABSTRACT The tree Piptadenia gonoachantha is widely used in forestry and in forest restoration projects, which require methods for evaluating tree growth. Long-term studies are necessary to determine patterns and detect changes in species growth rhythms. Tree ring analysis provides a precise method for determining age and documenting long-term growth trends in tropical tree species. The present study evaluated the periodicity of tree ring formation and radial growth dynamics of P. gonoachantha from a population of known age in the Poço das Antas Biological Reserve. Two radii from six trees were sampled using non-destructive methods. Tree rings were counted and measured to estimate age and to calculate diametric increment. All samples had 16 tree rings, which matched the known plantation age and confirmed the annual formation of rings. The individuals sampled had a mean annual diametric increment of 9.5 mm / year. Results showed a trend towards decreasing growth rate with increasing age. Individuals of P. gonoachantha in Ombrophilous Dense Forest produce annual tree rings, which holds potential for future dendroecological studies.

Risø annual report 2001

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

2002-01-01

In this annual report, we present a small selection of Risø’s achievements in 2001. A more detailed review of Risø’s projects can be found in the Risø Annual Accounts for 2001 as well as in the annual progress reports prepared by the individual researchdepartments.......In this annual report, we present a small selection of Risø’s achievements in 2001. A more detailed review of Risø’s projects can be found in the Risø Annual Accounts for 2001 as well as in the annual progress reports prepared by the individual researchdepartments....

Estimates of nitrate loads and yields from groundwater to streams in the Chesapeake Bay watershed based on land use and geology

Science.gov (United States)

Terziotti, Silvia; Capel, Paul D.; Tesoriero, Anthony J.; Hopple, Jessica A.; Kronholm, Scott C.

2018-03-07

The water quality of the Chesapeake Bay may be adversely affected by dissolved nitrate carried in groundwater discharge to streams. To estimate the concentrations, loads, and yields of nitrate from groundwater to streams for the Chesapeake Bay watershed, a regression model was developed based on measured nitrate concentrations from 156 small streams with watersheds less than 500 square miles (mi2 ) at baseflow. The regression model has three predictive variables: geologic unit, percent developed land, and percent agricultural land. Comparisons of estimated and actual values within geologic units were closely matched. The coefficient of determination (R2 ) for the model was 0.6906. The model was used to calculate baseflow nitrate concentrations at over 83,000 National Hydrography Dataset Plus Version 2 catchments and aggregated to 1,966 total 12-digit hydrologic units in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. The modeled output geospatial data layers provided estimated annual loads and yields of nitrate from groundwater into streams. The spatial distribution of annual nitrate yields from groundwater estimated by this method was compared to the total watershed yields of all sources estimated from a Chesapeake Bay SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) water-quality model. The comparison showed similar spatial patterns. The regression model for groundwater contribution had similar but lower yields, suggesting that groundwater is an important source of nitrogen for streams in the Chesapeake Bay watershed.

Inter-annual variation of carbon uptake by a plantation oak woodland in south-eastern England

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Wilkinson

2012-12-01

Full Text Available The carbon balance of an 80-yr-old deciduous oak plantation in the temperate oceanic climate of the south-east of Great Britain was measured by eddy covariance over 12 yr (1999–2010. The mean annual net ecosystem productivity (NEP was 486 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹ (95% CI of ±73 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹, and this was partitioned into a gross primary productivity (GPP of 2034 ± 145 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹, over a 165 (±6 day growing season, and an annual loss of carbon through respiration and decomposition (ecosystem respiration, R_eco of 1548 ± 122 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹. Although the maximum variation of NEP between years was large (333 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹, the ratio of R_eco/GPP remained relatively constant (0.76 ± 0.02 CI. Some anomalies in the annual patterns of the carbon balance could be linked to particular weather events, such as low summer solar radiation and low soil moisture content (values below 30% by volume. The European-wide heat wave and drought of 2003 did not reduce the NEP of this woodland because of good water supply from the surface-water gley soil. The inter-annual variation in estimated intercepted radiation only accounted for ~ 47% of the variation in GPP, although a significant relationship (p < 0.001 was found between peak leaf area index and annual GPP, which modified the efficiency with which incident radiation was used in net CO₂ uptake. Whilst the spring start and late autumn end of the net CO₂ uptake period varied substantially (range of 24 and 27 days respectively, annual GPP was not related to growing season length. Severe outbreaks of defoliating moth caterpillars, mostly Tortrix viridana L. and Operophtera brumata L., caused considerable damage to the forest canopy in 2009 and 2010, resulting in reduced GPP in these two years. Inter-annual variation in

Inter-annual Variability in Global Suspended Particulate Inorganic Carbon Inventory Using Space-based Measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Hopkins, J.; Balch, W. M.; Henson, S.; Poulton, A. J.; Drapeau, D.; Bowler, B.; Lubelczyk, L.

2016-02-01

Coccolithophores, the single celled phytoplankton that produce an outer covering of calcium carbonate coccoliths, are considered to be the greatest contributors to the global oceanic particulate inorganic carbon (PIC) pool. The reflective coccoliths scatter light back out from the ocean surface, enabling PIC concentration to be quantitatively estimated from ocean color satellites. Here we use datasets of AQUA MODIS PIC concentration from 2003-2014 (using the recently-revised PIC algorithm), as well as statistics on coccolithophore vertical distribution derived from cruises throughout the world ocean, to estimate the average global (surface and integrated) PIC standing stock and its associated inter-annual variability. In addition, we divide the global ocean into Longhurst biogeochemical provinces, update the PIC biomass statistics and identify those regions that have the greatest inter-annual variability and thus may exert the greatest influence on global PIC standing stock and the alkalinity pump.

Estimates of economic burden of providing inpatient care in childhood rotavirus gastroenteritis from Malaysia.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Way Seah; Poo, Muhammad Izzuddin; Nagaraj, Shyamala

2007-12-01

To estimate the cost of an episode of inpatient care and the economic burden of hospitalisation for childhood rotavirus gastroenteritis (GE) in Malaysia. A 12-month prospective, hospital-based study on children less than 14 years of age with rotavirus GE, admitted to University of Malaya Medical Centre, Kuala Lumpur, was conducted in 2002. Data on human resource expenditure, costs of investigations, treatment and consumables were collected. Published estimates on rotavirus disease incidence in Malaysia were searched. Economic burden of hospital care for rotavirus GE in Malaysia was estimated by multiplying the cost of each episode of hospital admission for rotavirus GE with national rotavirus incidence in Malaysia. In 2002, the per capita health expenditure by Malaysian Government was US$71.47. Rotavirus was positive in 85 (22%) of the 393 patients with acute GE admitted during the study period. The median cost of providing inpatient care for an episode of rotavirus GE was US$211.91 (range US$68.50-880.60). The estimated average cases of children hospitalised for rotavirus GE in Malaysia (1999-2000) was 8571 annually. The financial burden of providing inpatient care for rotavirus GE in Malaysian children was estimated to be US$1.8 million (range US$0.6 million-7.5 million) annually. The cost of providing inpatient care for childhood rotavirus GE in Malaysia was estimated to be US$1.8 million annually. The financial burden of rotavirus disease would be higher if cost of outpatient visits, non-medical and societal costs are included.

Annual Report 2010-2011

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

... 2013-2014 Annual Report 2013-2014 Rapport annuel 2013-2014 Annual Report 2014-2015 Annual Report 2014-2015 Rapport annuel 2014-2015 Investing in Solutions Strategic Plan 2015-2020 Investing in Solutions Strategic Plan 2015-2020 Investir dans des solutions Plan stratégique 2015-2020 Financial statements ...

FISH PRODUCTION ESTIMATES FOR GBEDIKERE LAKE, BASSA, KOGI STATE, NIGERIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Samuel Olusegun Adeyemi

2013-10-01

Full Text Available Annual estimates of the fish caught by local fishermen in randomly selected fishing villages adjacent to Gbedikere Lake were determined using Catch Assessment (CAS. The studies were carried out within two seasons of low water (February and high water (September periods between 2006 to 2008. Annual fish catch varied from 537.4 mts to 576.9 mts at high water. Mean catch per boat ranged from 7.40 kg to 10.60 kg among the landing sites. A total of 12 fish species were identified belonging to ten families. The catches were dominated by the cichlids with Orechromis niloticus dominating the overall catch compositions. Production estimate was compared with the catches obtained through experimental gill-net sampling and potential fish yield estimates using Ryder’s Morpho - Edaphic Index (MEI as modified by Henderson and Welcomme (1974. Contributions of the gears in use were also done with cast nets ranking above others (29%, followed by the set net (25%, hook and lines (16.6%, traps (16.6%, clap net (8.3%. Management measures were suggested.

NUKEM annual report 1981

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The annual report of this important undertaking in the German nuclear industry informs about its structure, holdings and activities in 1981. The report of the management is followed by remarks on the annual statement of accounts (annual balance, profit-loss accounting) and the report of the Supervisory Board. In the annex the annual balance of NUKEM GmbH/HOBEG mbH as per December 31, 1981, and the profit-loss accounting of NUKEM GmbH/HOBEG mbH for the business year 1981 are presented. (UA) [de

Distribution load estimation (DLE)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Seppaelae, A; Lehtonen, M [VTT Energy, Espoo (Finland)

1998-08-01

The load research has produced customer class load models to convert the customers` annual energy consumption to hourly load values. The reliability of load models applied from a nation-wide sample is limited in any specific network because many local circumstances are different from utility to utility and time to time. Therefore there is a need to find improvements to the load models or, in general, improvements to the load estimates. In Distribution Load Estimation (DLE) the measurements from the network are utilized to improve the customer class load models. The results of DLE will be new load models that better correspond to the loading of the distribution network but are still close to the original load models obtained by load research. The principal data flow of DLE is presented

Groundwater Modelling For Recharge Estimation Using Satellite Based Evapotranspiration

Science.gov (United States)

Soheili, Mahmoud; (Tom) Rientjes, T. H. M.; (Christiaan) van der Tol, C.

2017-04-01

Groundwater movement is influenced by several factors and processes in the hydrological cycle, from which, recharge is of high relevance. Since the amount of aquifer extractable water directly relates to the recharge amount, estimation of recharge is a perquisite of groundwater resources management. Recharge is highly affected by water loss mechanisms the major of which is actual evapotranspiration (ETa). It is, therefore, essential to have detailed assessment of ETa impact on groundwater recharge. The objective of this study was to evaluate how recharge was affected when satellite-based evapotranspiration was used instead of in-situ based ETa in the Salland area, the Netherlands. The Methodology for Interactive Planning for Water Management (MIPWA) model setup which includes a groundwater model for the northern part of the Netherlands was used for recharge estimation. The Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) based actual evapotranspiration maps from Waterschap Groot Salland were also used. Comparison of SEBAL based ETa estimates with in-situ abased estimates in the Netherlands showed that these SEBAL estimates were not reliable. As such results could not serve for calibrating root zone parameters in the CAPSIM model. The annual cumulative ETa map produced by the model showed that the maximum amount of evapotranspiration occurs in mixed forest areas in the northeast and a portion of central parts. Estimates ranged from 579 mm to a minimum of 0 mm in the highest elevated areas with woody vegetation in the southeast of the region. Variations in mean seasonal hydraulic head and groundwater level for each layer showed that the hydraulic gradient follows elevation in the Salland area from southeast (maximum) to northwest (minimum) of the region which depicts the groundwater flow direction. The mean seasonal water balance in CAPSIM part was evaluated to represent recharge estimation in the first layer. The highest recharge estimated flux was for autumn

Economic analysis of solar industrial process heat systems: A methodology to determine annual required revenue and internal rate of return

Science.gov (United States)

Dickinson, W. C.; Brown, K. C.

1981-08-01

An economic evaluation of solar industrial process heat systems, is developed to determine the annual required revenue and the internal rate of return. First, a format is provided to estimate the solar system's installed cost, annual operating and maintenance expenses, and net annual solar energy delivered to the industrial process. The annual required revenue and the price of solar is calculated. The economic attractiveness of the potential solar investment can be determined by comparing the price of solar energy with the price of fossilfuel, both expressed in levelized terms. This requires calcuation of the internal rate of return on the solar investment or, in certain cases, the growth rate of return.

Variations in return value estimate of ocean surface waves - a study based on measured buoy data and ERA-Interim reanalysis data

Science.gov (United States)

Muhammed Naseef, T.; Sanil Kumar, V.

2017-10-01

An assessment of extreme wave characteristics during the design of marine facilities not only helps to ensure their safety but also assess the economic aspects. In this study, return levels of significant wave height (Hs) for different periods are estimated using the generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) based on the Waverider buoy data spanning 8 years and the ERA-Interim reanalysis data spanning 38 years. The analysis is carried out for wind-sea, swell and total Hs separately for buoy data. Seasonality of the prevailing wave climate is also considered in the analysis to provide return levels for short-term activities in the location. The study shows that the initial distribution method (IDM) underestimates return levels compared to GPD. The maximum return levels estimated by the GPD corresponding to 100 years are 5.10 m for the monsoon season (JJAS), 2.66 m for the pre-monsoon season (FMAM) and 4.28 m for the post-monsoon season (ONDJ). The intercomparison of return levels by block maxima (annual, seasonal and monthly maxima) and the r-largest method for GEV theory shows that the maximum return level for 100 years is 7.20 m in the r-largest series followed by monthly maxima (6.02 m) and annual maxima (AM) (5.66 m) series. The analysis is also carried out to understand the sensitivity of the number of observations for the GEV annual maxima estimates. It indicates that the variations in the standard deviation of the series caused by changes in the number of observations are positively correlated with the return level estimates. The 100-year return level results of Hs using the GEV method are comparable for short-term (2008 to 2016) buoy data (4.18 m) and long-term (1979 to 2016) ERA-Interim shallow data (4.39 m). The 6 h interval data tend to miss high values of Hs, and hence there is a significant difference in the 100-year return level Hs obtained using 6 h interval data compared to data at 0.5 h interval. The

Analytical estimation show low depth-independent water loss due to vapor flux from deep aquifers

Science.gov (United States)

Selker, John S.

2017-06-01

Recent articles have provided estimates of evaporative flux from water tables in deserts that span 5 orders of magnitude. In this paper, we present an analytical calculation that indicates aquifer vapor flux to be limited to 0.01 mm/yr for sites where there is negligible recharge and the water table is well over 20 m below the surface. This value arises from the geothermal gradient, and therefore, is nearly independent of the actual depth of the aquifer. The value is in agreement with several numerical studies, but is 500 times lower than recently reported experimental values, and 100 times larger than an earlier analytical estimate.

Source-Sink Estimates of Genetic Introgression Show Influence of Hatchery Strays on Wild Chum Salmon Populations in Prince William Sound, Alaska

OpenAIRE

Jasper, James R.; Habicht, Christopher; Moffitt, Steve; Brenner, Rich; Marsh, Jennifer; Lewis, Bert; Creelman Fox, Elisabeth; Grauvogel, Zac; Rogers Olive, Serena D.; Grant, W. Stewart

2013-01-01

The extent to which stray, hatchery-reared salmon affect wild populations is much debated. Although experiments show that artificial breeding and culture influence the genetics of hatchery salmon, little is known about the interaction between hatchery and wild salmon in a natural setting. Here, we estimated historical and contemporary genetic population structures of chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) in Prince William Sound (PWS), Alaska, with 135 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers. H...

Estimating extreme river discharges in Europe through a Bayesian network

Science.gov (United States)

Paprotny, Dominik; Morales-Nápoles, Oswaldo

2017-06-01

Large-scale hydrological modelling of flood hazards requires adequate extreme discharge data. In practise, models based on physics are applied alongside those utilizing only statistical analysis. The former require enormous computational power, while the latter are mostly limited in accuracy and spatial coverage. In this paper we introduce an alternate, statistical approach based on Bayesian networks (BNs), a graphical model for dependent random variables. We use a non-parametric BN to describe the joint distribution of extreme discharges in European rivers and variables representing the geographical characteristics of their catchments. Annual maxima of daily discharges from more than 1800 river gauges (stations with catchment areas ranging from 1.4 to 807 000 km2) were collected, together with information on terrain, land use and local climate. The (conditional) correlations between the variables are modelled through copulas, with the dependency structure defined in the network. The results show that using this method, mean annual maxima and return periods of discharges could be estimated with an accuracy similar to existing studies using physical models for Europe and better than a comparable global statistical model. Performance of the model varies slightly between regions of Europe, but is consistent between different time periods, and remains the same in a split-sample validation. Though discharge prediction under climate change is not the main scope of this paper, the BN was applied to a large domain covering all sizes of rivers in the continent both for present and future climate, as an example. Results show substantial variation in the influence of climate change on river discharges. The model can be used to provide quick estimates of extreme discharges at any location for the purpose of obtaining input information for hydraulic modelling.

Annual balances of CH4 and N2O from a managed fen meadow using eddy covariance flux measurements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schrier-Uijl, A.P.; Veenendaal, E.M.; Kroon, P.S.; Hensen, A.; Jonker, H.J.J.

2010-10-01

Annual terrestrial balances of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) are presented for a managed fen meadow in the Netherlands for 2006, 2007 and 2008, using eddy covariance (EC) flux measurements. Annual emissions derived from different methods are compared. The most accurate annual CH4 flux is achieved by gap filling EC fluxes with an empirical multivariate regression model, with soil temperature and mean wind velocity as driving variables. This model explains about 60% of the variability in observed daily CH4 fluxes. Annual N2O emissions can be separated into background emissions and event emissions due to fertilization. The background emission is estimated using a multivariate regression model also based on EC flux data, with soil temperature and mean wind velocity as driving variables. The event emissions are estimated using emission factors. The minimum direct emission factor is derived for six fertilization events by subtracting the background emission, and the IPCC default emission factor of 1% is used for the other events. In addition, the maximum direct emission factors are determined for the six events without subtracting the background emission. The average direct emission factor ranges from 1.2 to 2.8%, which is larger than the IPCC default value. Finally, the total terrestrial greenhouse gas balance is estimated at 16 Mg ha -1 year -1 in CO2-equivalents with contributions of 30, 25 and 45% by CO2, CH4 and N2O, respectively.

Mean annual and collective radiation doses of Perm' province personnel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Poplavskij, K.K.; Rotenberg, L.I.

1978-01-01

The average annual and collective doses of radiation received by personnel of radiologic facilities and by the population of the region under study as a whole are estimated. Tabular data on radiation loads are presented according to the age and sex of personnel and to the type of radiation sources used. The procedure employed in this study allows one to evaluate objectively the conditions of work with sources of ionizing radiation

Uranium industry annual 1996

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-04-01

The Uranium Industry Annual 1996 (UIA 1996) provides current statistical data on the US uranium industry's activities relating to uranium raw materials and uranium marketing. The UIA 1996 is prepared for use by the Congress, Federal and State agencies, the uranium and nuclear electric utility industries, and the public. Data on uranium raw materials activities for 1987 through 1996 including exploration activities and expenditures, EIA-estimated reserves, mine production of uranium, production of uranium concentrate, and industry employment are presented in Chapter 1. Data on uranium marketing activities for 1994 through 2006, including purchases of uranium and enrichment services, enrichment feed deliveries, uranium fuel assemblies, filled and unfilled market requirements, uranium imports and exports, and uranium inventories are shown in Chapter 2. A feature article, The Role of Thorium in Nuclear Energy, is included. 24 figs., 56 tabs

Uranium industry annual 1996

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1997-04-01

The Uranium Industry Annual 1996 (UIA 1996) provides current statistical data on the US uranium industry`s activities relating to uranium raw materials and uranium marketing. The UIA 1996 is prepared for use by the Congress, Federal and State agencies, the uranium and nuclear electric utility industries, and the public. Data on uranium raw materials activities for 1987 through 1996 including exploration activities and expenditures, EIA-estimated reserves, mine production of uranium, production of uranium concentrate, and industry employment are presented in Chapter 1. Data on uranium marketing activities for 1994 through 2006, including purchases of uranium and enrichment services, enrichment feed deliveries, uranium fuel assemblies, filled and unfilled market requirements, uranium imports and exports, and uranium inventories are shown in Chapter 2. A feature article, The Role of Thorium in Nuclear Energy, is included. 24 figs., 56 tabs.

Mechanisms Controlling Global Mean Sea Surface Temperature Determined From a State Estimate

Science.gov (United States)

Ponte, R. M.; Piecuch, C. G.

2018-04-01

Global mean sea surface temperature (T¯) is a variable of primary interest in studies of climate variability and change. The temporal evolution of T¯ can be influenced by surface heat fluxes (F¯) and by diffusion (D¯) and advection (A¯) processes internal to the ocean, but quantifying the contribution of these different factors from data alone is prone to substantial uncertainties. Here we derive a closed T¯ budget for the period 1993-2015 based on a global ocean state estimate, which is an exact solution of a general circulation model constrained to most extant ocean observations through advanced optimization methods. The estimated average temperature of the top (10-m thick) level in the model, taken to represent T¯, shows relatively small variability at most time scales compared to F¯, D¯, or A¯, reflecting the tendency for largely balancing effects from all the latter terms. The seasonal cycle in T¯ is mostly determined by small imbalances between F¯ and D¯, with negligible contributions from A¯. While D¯ seems to simply damp F¯ at the annual period, a different dynamical role for D¯ at semiannual period is suggested by it being larger than F¯. At periods longer than annual, A¯ contributes importantly to T¯ variability, pointing to the direct influence of the variable ocean circulation on T¯ and mean surface climate.

A hybrid self-adaptive Particle Swarm Optimization–Genetic Algorithm–Radial Basis Function model for annual electricity demand prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu, Shiwei; Wang, Ke; Wei, Yi-Ming

2015-01-01

Highlights: • A hybrid self-adaptive PSO–GA-RBF model is proposed for electricity demand prediction. • Each mixed-coding particle is composed by two coding parts of binary and real. • Five independent variables have been selected to predict future electricity consumption in Wuhan. • The proposed model has a simpler structure or higher estimating precision than other ANN models. • No matter what the scenario, the electricity consumption of Wuhan will grow rapidly. - Abstract: The present study proposes a hybrid Particle Swarm Optimization and Genetic Algorithm optimized Radial Basis Function (PSO–GA-RBF) neural network for prediction of annual electricity demand. In the model, each mixed-coding particle (or chromosome) is composed of two coding parts, binary and real, which optimizes the structure of the RBF by GA operation and the parameters of the basis and weights by a PSO–GA implementation. Five independent variables have been selected to predict future electricity consumption in Wuhan by using optimized networks. The results shows that (1) the proposed PSO–GA-RBF model has a simpler network structure (fewer hidden neurons) or higher estimation precision than other selected ANN models; and (2) no matter what the scenario, the electricity consumption of Wuhan will grow rapidly at average annual growth rates of about 9.7–11.5%. By 2020, the electricity demand in the planning scenario, the highest among the scenarios, will be 95.85 billion kW h. The lowest demand is estimated for the business-as-usual scenario, and will be 88.45 billion kW h

Assessing damage cost estimation of urban pluvial flood risk as a mean of improving climate change adaptations investments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skovgård Olsen, Anders; Zhou, Qianqian; Linde, Jens Jørgen

Estimating the expected annual damage (EAD) due to flooding in an urban area is of great interest for urban water managers and other stakeholders. It is a strong indicator for a given area showing how it will be affected by climate change and how much can be gained by implementing adaptation...... measures. This study investigates three different methods for estimating the EAD based on a loglinear relation between the damage costs and the return periods, one of which has been used in previous studies. The results show with the increased amount of data points there appears to be a shift in the log......-linear relation which could be contributed by the Danish design standards for drainage systems. Three different methods for estimating the EAD were tested and the choice of method is less important than accounting for the log-linear shift. This then also means that the statistical approximation of the EAD used...

Uncertainty estimation of the velocity model for stations of the TrigNet GPS network

Science.gov (United States)

Hackl, M.; Malservisi, R.; Hugentobler, U.

2010-12-01

Satellite based geodetic techniques - above all GPS - provide an outstanding tool to measure crustal motions. They are widely used to derive geodetic velocity models that are applied in geodynamics to determine rotations of tectonic blocks, to localize active geological features, and to estimate rheological properties of the crust and the underlying asthenosphere. However, it is not a trivial task to derive GPS velocities and their uncertainties from positioning time series. In general time series are assumed to be represented by linear models (sometimes offsets, annual, and semi-annual signals are included) and noise. It has been shown that error models accounting only for white noise tend to underestimate the uncertainties of rates derived from long time series and that different colored noise components (flicker noise, random walk, etc.) need to be considered. However, a thorough error analysis including power spectra analyses and maximum likelihood estimates is computationally expensive and is usually not carried out for every site, but the uncertainties are scaled by latitude dependent factors. Analyses of the South Africa continuous GPS network TrigNet indicate that the scaled uncertainties overestimate the velocity errors. So we applied a method similar to the Allan Variance that is commonly used in the estimation of clock uncertainties and is able to account for time dependent probability density functions (colored noise) to the TrigNet time series. Comparisons with synthetic data show that the noise can be represented quite well by a power law model in combination with a seasonal signal in agreement with previous studies, which allows for a reliable estimation of the velocity error. Finally, we compared these estimates to the results obtained by spectral analyses using CATS. Small differences may originate from non-normal distribution of the noise.

Satellite altimetry and GRACE gravimetry for studies of annual water storage variations in Bangladesh

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Berry, P.; Freeman, J.

2008-01-01

Four different data sources have been compared with respect to observations of the annual water storage variations in the region of Bangladesh. Data from satellite altimeters and river gauges estimates the variation in surface water storage in the major rivers of Bangladesh. The GRACE satellites ...

8. annual report of RADMIL 1992/93

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-01-01

The eighth RADMIL (Radioactivity monitoring in Lancashire) annual report covers the period 1992-1993. It is self-contained, with data on monitoring systems held in the text rather than referenced. It summarizes the UK radiological protection system and the standards against which public exposure is assessed. It uses the data from RADMIL monitoring to indicate doses to Lancastrians from all sources (environmental gamma dose rate, atmospheric particulates, seafood and seaweed monitoring, other food monitoring, intertidal sediment and house, and external dust) and discusses risk and estimates doses to specific groups in relation to occupations and personal habits. (UK)

On Selection of the Probability Distribution for Representing the Maximum Annual Wind Speed in East Cairo, Egypt

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

El-Shanshoury, Gh. I.; El-Hemamy, S.T.

2013-01-01

The main objective of this paper is to identify an appropriate probability model and best plotting position formula which represent the maximum annual wind speed in east Cairo. This model can be used to estimate the extreme wind speed and return period at a particular site as well as to determine the radioactive release distribution in case of accident occurrence at a nuclear power plant. Wind speed probabilities can be estimated by using probability distributions. An accurate determination of probability distribution for maximum wind speed data is very important in expecting the extreme value . The probability plots of the maximum annual wind speed (MAWS) in east Cairo are fitted to six major statistical distributions namely: Gumbel, Weibull, Normal, Log-Normal, Logistic and Log- Logistic distribution, while eight plotting positions of Hosking and Wallis, Hazen, Gringorten, Cunnane, Blom, Filliben, Benard and Weibull are used for determining exceedance of their probabilities. A proper probability distribution for representing the MAWS is selected by the statistical test criteria in frequency analysis. Therefore, the best plotting position formula which can be used to select appropriate probability model representing the MAWS data must be determined. The statistical test criteria which represented in: the probability plot correlation coefficient (PPCC), the root mean square error (RMSE), the relative root mean square error (RRMSE) and the maximum absolute error (MAE) are used to select the appropriate probability position and distribution. The data obtained show that the maximum annual wind speed in east Cairo vary from 44.3 Km/h to 96.1 Km/h within duration of 39 years . Weibull plotting position combined with Normal distribution gave the highest fit, most reliable, accurate predictions and determination of the wind speed in the study area having the highest value of PPCC and lowest values of RMSE, RRMSE and MAE

Development of cancer risk estimates from epidemiologic studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Webster, E.W.

1983-01-01

Radiation risk estimates may be made for an increase in mortality from, or for an increase in incidence of, particular types of disease. For both endpoints, two numerical systems of risk expression are used: the absolute risk system (usually the excess deaths or cases per million persons per year per rad), and the relative risk system (usually excess deaths or cases per year per rad expressed as a percentage of those normally expected). Risks may be calculated for specific age groups or for a general population. An alternative in both risk systems is the estimation of cumulative of lifetime risk rather than annual risk (e.g. in excess deaths per million per rad over a specified long period including the remainder of lifespan). The derivation of both absolute and relative risks is illustrated by examples. The effects on risk estimates of latent period, follow-up time, age at exposure and age standardization within dose groups are illustrated. The dependence of the projected cumulative (lifetime) risk on the adoption of a constant absolute risk or constant relative risk is noted. The use of life-table data in the adjustment of cumulative risk for normal mortality following single or annual doses is briefly discussed

Responding to bioterror concerns by increasing milk pasteurization temperature would increase estimated annual deaths from listeriosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Stasiewicz, Matthew J; Martin, Nicole; Laue, Shelley; Gröhn, Yrjo T; Boor, Kathryn J; Wiedmann, Martin

2014-05-01

In a 2005 analysis of a potential bioterror attack on the food supply involving a botulinum toxin release into the milk supply, the authors recommended adopting a toxin inactivation step during milk processing. In response, some dairy processors increased the times and temperatures of pasteurization well above the legal minimum for high temperature, short time pasteurization (72 °C for 15 s), with unknown implications for public health. The present study was conducted to determine whether an increase in high temperature, short time pasteurization temperature would affect the growth of Listeria monocytogenes, a potentially lethal foodborne pathogen normally eliminated with proper pasteurization but of concern when milk is contaminated postpasteurization. L. monocytogenes growth during refrigerated storage was higher in milk pasteurized at 82 °C than in milk pasteurized at 72 °C. Specifically, the time lag before exponential growth was decreased and the maximum population density was increased. The public health impact of this change in pasteurization was evaluated using a quantitative microbial risk assessment of deaths from listeriosis attributable to consumption of pasteurized fluid milk that was contaminated postprocessing. Conservative estimates of the effect of pasteurizing all fluid milk at 82 °C rather than 72 °C are that annual listeriosis deaths from consumption of this milk would increase from 18 to 670, a 38-fold increase (8.7- to 96-fold increase, 5th and 95th percentiles). These results exemplify a situation in which response to a rare bioterror threat may have the unintended consequence of putting the public at increased risk of a known, yet severe harm and illustrate the need for a paradigm shift toward multioutcome risk benefit analyses when proposing changes to established food safety practices.

Estimating Climatological Bias Errors for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP)

Science.gov (United States)

Adler, Robert; Gu, Guojun; Huffman, George

2012-01-01

A procedure is described to estimate bias errors for mean precipitation by using multiple estimates from different algorithms, satellite sources, and merged products. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly product is used as a base precipitation estimate, with other input products included when they are within +/- 50% of the GPCP estimates on a zonal-mean basis (ocean and land separately). The standard deviation s of the included products is then taken to be the estimated systematic, or bias, error. The results allow one to examine monthly climatologies and the annual climatology, producing maps of estimated bias errors, zonal-mean errors, and estimated errors over large areas such as ocean and land for both the tropics and the globe. For ocean areas, where there is the largest question as to absolute magnitude of precipitation, the analysis shows spatial variations in the estimated bias errors, indicating areas where one should have more or less confidence in the mean precipitation estimates. In the tropics, relative bias error estimates (s/m, where m is the mean precipitation) over the eastern Pacific Ocean are as large as 20%, as compared with 10%-15% in the western Pacific part of the ITCZ. An examination of latitudinal differences over ocean clearly shows an increase in estimated bias error at higher latitudes, reaching up to 50%. Over land, the error estimates also locate regions of potential problems in the tropics and larger cold-season errors at high latitudes that are due to snow. An empirical technique to area average the gridded errors (s) is described that allows one to make error estimates for arbitrary areas and for the tropics and the globe (land and ocean separately, and combined). Over the tropics this calculation leads to a relative error estimate for tropical land and ocean combined of 7%, which is considered to be an upper bound because of the lack of sign-of-the-error canceling when integrating over different areas with a

Nevada Test Site Annual Site Environmental Report for Calendar Year - 1999

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Townsend, Y.E.; Grossman, R.F.

2000-01-01

Prior to 1989, annual reports of environmental monitoring and assessment results for the Nevada Test Site (NTS) were prepared in two separate parts. Onsite effluent monitoring and environmental monitoring results were reported in an onsite report prepared by the U.S. Department of Energy, Nevada Operations Office (DOE/NV). Results of the Offsite Radiological Surveillance and Long-Term Hydrological Monitoring programs conducted by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) Laboratory (various names) in Las Vegas, Nevada, were reported separately by that Agency. Beginning with the 1989 Annual Site Environmental Report for the NTS, these two documents were combined into a single report to provide a more comprehensive annual documentation of the environmental protection activities conducted for the nuclear testing program and other nuclear and non-nuclear operations at the NTS. The two agencies have coordinated preparation of this eleventh combined onsite and offsite report through sharing of information on environmental surveillance and releases as well as meteorological, hydrological, and other supporting data used in dose-estimation calculations

Nevada Test Site Annual Site Environmental Report for Calendar Year - 1999

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Townsend, Y.E.; Grossman, R.F.

2000-10-01

Prior to 1989, annual reports of environmental monitoring and assessment results for the Nevada Test Site (NTS) were prepared in two separate parts. Onsite effluent monitoring and environmental monitoring results were reported in an onsite report prepared by the U.S. Department of Energy, Nevada Operations Office (DOE/NV). Results of the Offsite Radiological Surveillance and Long-Term Hydrological Monitoring programs conducted by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) Laboratory (various names) in Las Vegas, Nevada, were reported separately by that Agency. Beginning with the 1989 Annual Site Environmental Report for the NTS, these two documents were combined into a single report to provide a more comprehensive annual documentation of the environmental protection activities conducted for the nuclear testing program and other nuclear and non-nuclear operations at the NTS. The two agencies have coordinated preparation of this eleventh combined onsite and offsite report through sharing of information on environmental surveillance and releases as well as meteorological, hydrological, and other supporting data used in dose-estimation calculations.

Nevada Test Site annual site environmental report for calendar year 1998

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Black, S.C.; Townsend, Y.E.

1999-10-01

Prior to 1989, annual reports of environmental monitoring and assessment results for the Nevada Test Site (NTS) were prepared in two separate parts. Onsite effluent monitoring and environmental monitoring results were reported in an onsite report prepared by the US Department of Energy, Nevada Operations Office (DOE/NV). Results of the Offsite Radiological Surveillance and Long-Term Hydrological Monitoring Programs conducted by the US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Laboratory (various names) in Las Vegas, Nevada, were reported separately by that Agency. Beginning with the 1989 Annual Site Environmental Report for the NTS, these two documents were combined into a single report to provide a more comprehensive annual documentation of the environmental protection activities conducted for the nuclear testing program and other nuclear and non-nuclear operations at the NTS. The two agencies have coordinated preparation of this tenth combined onsite and offsite report through sharing of information on environmental surveillance and releases as well as meteorological, hydrological, and other supporting data used in dose-estimation calculations.

A GIS wind resource map with tabular printout of monthly and annual wind speeds for 2,000 towns in Iowa

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brower, M.C. [Brower & Company, Andover, MA (United States); Factor, T. [Iowa Wind Energy Institute, Fairfield, IA (United States)

1997-12-31

The Iowa Wind Energy Institute, under a grant from the Iowa Energy Center, undertook in 1994 to map wind resources in Iowa. Fifty-meter met towers were erected at 13 locations across the state deemed promising for utility-scale wind farm development. Two years of summarized wind speed, direction, and temperature data were used to create wind resource maps incorporating effects of elevation, relative exposure, terrain roughness, and ground cover. Maps were produced predicting long-term mean monthly and annual wind speeds on a one-kilometer grid. The estimated absolute standard error in the predicted annual average wind speeds at unobstructed locations is 9 percent. The relative standard error between points on the annual map is estimated to be 3 percent. These maps and tabular data for 2,000 cities and towns in Iowa are now available on the Iowa Energy Center`s web site (http.//www.energy.iastate.edu).

The estimation of radiation effective dose from diagnostic medical procedures in general population of northern Iran

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shabestani Monfared, A.; Abdi, R.

2006-01-01

The risks of low-dose Ionizing radiation from radiology and nuclear medicine are not clearly determined. Effective dose to population is a very important factor in risk estimation. The study aimed to determine the effective dose from diagnostic radiation medicine in a northern province of Iran. Materials and Methods: Data about various radiologic and nuclear medicine procedures were collected from all radiology and nuclear medicine departments In Mazandaran Province (population = 2,898,031); and using the standard dosimetry tables, the total dose, dose per examination, and annual effective dose per capita as well as the annual gonadal dose per capita were estimated. Results: 655,730 radiologic examinations in a year's period, lead to 1.45 mSv, 0.33 mSv and 0.31 mGy as average effective dose per examination, annual average effective dose to member of the public, and annual average gonadal dose per capita, respectively. The frequency of medical radiologic examinations was 2,262 examinations annually per 10,000 members of population. However, the total number of nuclear medicine examinations in the same period was 7074, with 4.37 mSv, 9.6 μSv and 9.8 μGy, as average effective dose per examination, annual average effective dose to member of the public and annual average gonadal dose per caput, respectively. The frequency of nuclear medicine examination was 24 examinations annually per 10,000 members of population. Conclusion: The average effective dose per examination was nearly similar to other studies. However, the average annual effective dose and annual average gonadal dose per capita were less than the similar values in other reports, which could be due to lesser number of radiation medicine examinations in the present study

Phosphorus and suspended sediment load estimates for the Lower Boise River, Idaho, 1994-2002

Science.gov (United States)

Donato, Mary M.; MacCoy, Dorene E.

2004-01-01

. Estimated annual loads of TP ranged from less than 8 tons at Diversion to 570 tons at Parma. Annual loads of dissolved OP peaked in 1997 at all sites and were consistently higher at Parma than at the other sites. The ratio of OP to TP varied considerably throughout the year at all sites. Peaks in the OP:TP ratio occurred primarily when flows were at their lowest annual stages; estimated seasonal OP:TP ratios were highest in autumn at all sites. Conversely, when flows were high, the ratio was low, reflecting increased TP associated with particulate matter during high flows. Parma exhibited the highest OP:TP ratio during all seasons, at least 0.60 in spring and nearly 0.90 in autumn. Similar OP:TP ratios were estimated at Glenwood. Whereas the OP:TP ratio for Parma and Glenwood peaked in November or December, decreased from January through May, and increased again after June, estimates for Diversion showed nearly the opposite pattern ? ratios were highest in July and lowest in January and February. This difference might reflect complex biological and geochemical processes involving nutrient cycling in Lucky Peak Lake, but further data are needed to substantiate this hypothesis. Estimated monthly average SS loads were highest at Diversion, about 400 tons per day (ton/d). Average annual loads from 1994 through 2002 were 144,000 tons at Diversion, 33,000 tons at Glenwood, and 88,000 tons at Parma. Estimated SS loads peaked in the spring at all sites, coinciding with high flows. Increases in TP in the reach from Diversion to Glenwood ranged from 200 to 350 lb/d. Decreases in TP were small in this reach only during high flows in January and February 1997. Decreases in SS, were large during high-flow conditions indicating sediment deposition in the reach. Intermittent data at Middleton indicated that increases and decreases in TP in the reach from Glenwood to Middleton were during low- and high-flow conditions, respectively. All constituents increased in the r

Summary of annual site Environmental Monitoring Reports, January-December 1983

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hawley, K.A.; Washburn, D.K.

1984-01-01

This summary presents information obtained from 35 annual Environmental Monitoring Reports submitted to the US Department of Energy (DOE). These reports, covering calendar year 1983, contain data on 44 separate sites where work is conducted for DOE. The purpose of each document is to provide an assessment of the overall potential impact of DOE operations on people and the environment in the vicinity of each site. This summary document provides a general overview of the sites, their operations, and their potential impact on the environment, based on data in those annual reports. During the 1983 calendar year, estimated potential radiation exposures to offsite populations from Department of Energy nuclear facilities were consistently within DOE limits. The maximum reported invidual whole-body dose to a member of the public from any DOE nuclear site was calculated to be 34 mrem for the year. The combined population dose estimates for individuals living within an 80-km (50-mile) radius of these sites in 1983 was about 300 person-rem from DOE nuclear operations. Releases of nonradioactive pollutants in DOE nuclear or nonnuclear site effluents were generally within EPA regulatory and/or state limits. Several facilities had pollution abatement projects planned or under construction to ensure compliance with regulations. 8 figures, 9 tables

Circumpolar assessment of rhizosphere priming shows limited increase in carbon loss estimates for permafrost soils but large regional variability

Science.gov (United States)

Wild, B.; Keuper, F.; Kummu, M.; Beer, C.; Blume-Werry, G.; Fontaine, S.; Gavazov, K.; Gentsch, N.; Guggenberger, G.; Hugelius, G.; Jalava, M.; Koven, C.; Krab, E. J.; Kuhry, P.; Monteux, S.; Richter, A.; Shazhad, T.; Dorrepaal, E.

2017-12-01

Predictions of soil organic carbon (SOC) losses in the northern circumpolar permafrost area converge around 15% (± 3% standard error) of the initial C pool by 2100 under the RCP 8.5 warming scenario. Yet, none of these estimates consider plant-soil interactions such as the rhizosphere priming effect (RPE). While laboratory experiments have shown that the input of plant-derived compounds can stimulate SOC losses by up to 1200%, the magnitude of RPE in natural ecosystems is unknown and no methods for upscaling exist so far. We here present the first spatial and depth explicit RPE model that allows estimates of RPE on a large scale (PrimeSCale). We combine available spatial data (SOC, C/N, GPP, ALT and ecosystem type) and new ecological insights to assess the importance of the RPE at the circumpolar scale. We use a positive saturating relationship between the RPE and belowground C allocation and two ALT-dependent rooting-depth distribution functions (for tundra and boreal forest) to proportionally assign belowground C allocation and RPE to individual soil depth increments. The model permits to take into account reasonable limiting factors on additional SOC losses by RPE including interactions between spatial and/or depth variation in GPP, plant root density, SOC stocks and ALT. We estimate potential RPE-induced SOC losses at 9.7 Pg C (5 - 95% CI: 1.5 - 23.2 Pg C) by 2100 (RCP 8.5). This corresponds to an increase of the current permafrost SOC-loss estimate from 15% of the initial C pool to about 16%. If we apply an additional molar C/N threshold of 20 to account for microbial C limitation as a requirement for the RPE, SOC losses by RPE are further reduced to 6.5 Pg C (5 - 95% CI: 1.0 - 16.8 Pg C) by 2100 (RCP 8.5). Although our results show that current estimates of permafrost soil C losses are robust without taking into account the RPE, our model also highlights high-RPE risk in Siberian lowland areas and Alaska north of the Brooks Range. The small overall impact of

Annual and Seasonal Mean Net Evaporation Rates of the Red Sea Water during Jan 1958 - Dec 2007

OpenAIRE

Nassir, Sahbaldeen Abdulaziz

2012-01-01

Data set including sea level, temperature, salinity, and current from Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) is used in this study to estimate the mean net annually and seasonally evaporation rates. Then wind data is used to examine its impact on the evaporation. This work calculated the seasonal and annual evaporation rates based on assumption of that there is no net mass transport (balanced). Hence, the difference in the transport supposed to be equal to the water that has eva...

Estimating water equivalent snow depth from related meteorological variables

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Steyaert, L.T.; LeDuc, S.K.; Strommen, N.D.; Nicodemus, M.L.; Guttman, N.B.

1980-05-01

Engineering design must take into consideration natural loads and stresses caused by meteorological elements, such as, wind, snow, precipitation and temperature. The purpose of this study was to determine a relationship of water equivalent snow depth measurements to meteorological variables. Several predictor models were evaluated for use in estimating water equivalent values. These models include linear regression, principal component regression, and non-linear regression models. Linear, non-linear and Scandanavian models are used to generate annual water equivalent estimates for approximately 1100 cooperative data stations where predictor variables are available, but which have no water equivalent measurements. These estimates are used to develop probability estimates of snow load for each station. Map analyses for 3 probability levels are presented

Remotely sensed forest cover loss shows high spatial and temporal variation across Sumatera and Kalimantan, Indonesia 2000-2008

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Broich, Mark; Hansen, Matthew; Potapov, Peter; Margono, Belinda Arunarwati; Adusei, Bernard; Stolle, Fred

2011-01-01

The Indonesian islands of Sumatera and Kalimantan (the Indonesian part of the island of Borneo) are a center of significant and rapid forest cover loss in the humid tropics with implications for carbon dynamics, biodiversity conservation, and local livelihoods. The aim of our research was to analyze and interpret annual trends of forest cover loss for different sub-regions of the study area. We mapped forest cover loss for 2000-2008 using multi-resolution remote sensing data from the Landsat enhanced thematic mapper plus (ETM +) and moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors and analyzed annual trends per island, province, and official land allocation zone. The total forest cover loss for Sumatera and Kalimantan 2000-2008 was 5.39 Mha, which represents 5.3% of the land area and 9.2% of the year 2000 forest cover of these two islands. At least 6.5% of all mapped forest cover loss occurred in land allocation zones prohibiting clearing. An additional 13.6% of forest cover loss occurred where clearing is legally restricted. The overall trend of forest cover loss increased until 2006 and decreased thereafter. The trends for Sumatera and Kalimantan were distinctly different, driven primarily by the trends of Riau and Central Kalimantan provinces, respectively. This analysis shows that annual mapping of forest cover change yields a clearer picture than a one-time overall national estimate. Monitoring forest dynamics is important for national policy makers, especially given the commitment of Indonesia to reducing greenhouse gas emissions as part of the reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries initiative (REDD +). The improved spatio-temporal detail of forest change monitoring products will make it possible to target policies and projects in meeting this commitment. Accurate, annual forest cover loss maps will be integral to many REDD + objectives, including policy formulation, definition of baselines, detection

Estimated medical cost reductions for paliperidone palmitate vs placebo in a randomized, double-blind relapse-prevention trial of patients with schizoaffective disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

Joshi, K; Lin, J; Lingohr-Smith, M; Fu, D J

2015-01-01

The objective of this economic model was to estimate the difference in medical costs among patients treated with paliperidone palmitate once-monthly injectable antipsychotic (PP1M) vs placebo, based on clinical event rates reported in the 15-month randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel-group study of paliperidone palmitate evaluating time to relapse in subjects with schizoaffective disorder. Rates of psychotic, depressive, and/or manic relapses and serious and non-serious treatment-emergent adverse events (TEAEs) were obtained from the long-term paliperidone palmitate vs placebo relapse prevention study. The total annual medical cost for a relapse from a US payer perspective was obtained from published literature and the costs for serious and non-serious TEAEs were based on Common Procedure Terminology codes. Total annual medical cost differences for patients treated with PP1M vs placebo were then estimated. Additionally, one-way and Monte Carlo sensitivity analyses were conducted. Lower rates of relapse (-18.3%) and serious TEAEs (-3.9%) were associated with use of PP1M vs placebo as reported in the long-term paliperidone palmitate vs placebo relapse prevention study. As a result of the reduction in these clinical event rates, the total annual medical cost was reduced by $7140 per patient treated with PP1M vs placebo. One-way sensitivity analysis showed that variations in relapse rates had the greatest impact on the estimated medical cost differences (range: -$9786, -$4670). Of the 10,000 random cycles of Monte Carlo simulations, 100% showed a medical cost difference schizoaffective disorder was associated with a significantly lower rate of relapse and a reduction in medical costs compared to placebo. Further evaluation in the real-world setting is warranted.

Estimating road transport fuel consumption in Ecuador

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sierra, Jaime Cevallos

2016-01-01

Road transport is one of the sectors with highest energy consumptions in the planet, with large dependence of fossil fuels, and contribution for global greenhouse gas emissions. Although, Latin America is not a high-energy consumer, its share in global consumption is expected to grow, especially in the transportation sector. This make essential for developing countries the adoption of better policies to identify the vehicle groups with largest fuel demands. The present study describes the VKT technique to disaggregate road transport energy consumption by vehicle type, applied to the road transportation system of Ecuador. It also describes the procedures performed to estimate the variables required to run the model, and some of the practical applications that be used to create public policies. Results show as the biggest fuel consumers the heavy-duty freight cargo, followed by light duty vehicles. The estimation of greenhouse gas emissions evidence that road transport released 14.3 million tons of CO_2 in 2012. When fuel consumption is compared by it costs, it can be confirmed that Ecuadorean Government covered, through subsidies, for 68% of the annual fuel costs of national road transport, demonstrating the importance of restructuring these expenditures in order to achieve an efficient road transport system. - Highlights: •The vehicle-kilometers traveled has been estimated from local info. •The fuel economy has been calculated from national and international data. •The groups with higher fuel consumption has been located. •The fuel-type dependency has been estimated for each vehicle group. •Greenhouse gas emission, and fuel costs, has been estimated for local road transport.

Assessment of Annual Effective Dose for Natural Radioactivity of Gamma Emitters in Biscuit Samples in Iraq.

Science.gov (United States)

Abojassim, Ali Abid; Al-Alasadi, Lubna A; Shitake, Ahmed R; Al-Tememie, Faeq A; Husain, Afnan A

2015-09-01

Biscuits are an important type of food, widely consumed by babies in Iraq and other countries. This work uses gamma spectroscopy to measure the natural radioactivity due to long-lived gamma emitters in children's biscuits; it also estimates radiation hazard indices, that is, the radium equivalent activity, the representative of gamma level index, the internal hazard index, and the annual effective dose in children. Ten samples were collected from the Iraqi market from different countries of origin. The average specific activities for (226)Ra, (232)Th, and (40)K were 9.390, 3.1213, and 214.969 Bq/kg, respectively, but the average of the radium equivalent activity and the internal hazard index were 33.101 Bq/kg and 0.107, respectively. The total average annual effective dose from consumption by adults, children, and infants is estimated to be 0.655, 1.009, and 0.875 mSv, respectively. The values found for specific activity, radiation hazard indices, and annual effective dose in all samples in this study were lower than worldwide median values for all groups; therefore, these values are found to be safe.

Herbarium specimens show contrasting phenological responses to Himalayan climate.

Science.gov (United States)

Hart, Robbie; Salick, Jan; Ranjitkar, Sailesh; Xu, Jianchu

2014-07-22

Responses by flowering plants to climate change are complex and only beginning to be understood. Through analyses of 10,295 herbarium specimens of Himalayan Rhododendron collected by plant hunters and botanists since 1884, we were able to separate these responses into significant components. We found a lack of directional change in mean flowering time over the past 45 y of rapid warming. However, over the full 125 y of collections, mean flowering time shows a significant response to year-to-year changes in temperature, and this response varies with season of warming. Mean flowering advances with annual warming (2.27 d earlier per 1 °C warming), and also is delayed with fall warming (2.54 d later per 1 °C warming). Annual warming may advance flowering through positive effects on overwintering bud formation, whereas fall warming may delay flowering through an impact on chilling requirements. The lack of a directional response suggests that contrasting phenological responses to temperature changes may obscure temperature sensitivity in plants. By drawing on large collections from multiple herbaria, made over more than a century, we show how these data may inform studies even of remote localities, and we highlight the increasing value of these and other natural history collections in understanding long-term change.

Seasonal and annual plant production of a southern Manitoba old-field

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Turner, B.N.; Iverson, S.L.

1980-06-01

The amount of natural variation in vegetation production during Project ZEUS (an investigation of long-term gamma radiation on meadow voles) will constitute an important habitat variable for the meadow vole population. To quantify this variation, annual and seasonal plant production of a nearby old-field was estimated by monthly harvests of aboveground vegetation between April and October for five consecutive years. The amount of dry green vegetation varied significantly both among years and months, peaking at a mean of nearly 300 G. M -2 in late July and late August. Mean rates of production were maximum in late May to late June, reaching 4.45 g.m -2 .d -1 . Dead vegetation varied significantly among months, but not among years, with peak amounts of nearly 800 G. M -2 in May and October. Moss quantities varied among years, but not among months, and showed a general trend to increase as the field aged. Monthly production of green vegetation showed some relationships to precipitation and temperature, and particularly indicated that hot dry springs impeded growth. Both amount and rate of green production were greater than that on most similar old-fields reported in the literature, and generally exceeded levels on all native grasslands except tallgrass prairie. Annual variability in peak green production was similar to that on other grasslands and old-fields. Variability in green production was greatest in April, and least in June, at the time when production was greatest. Greatest variation in green production occurred at the same time as greatest variation in temperature. Low precipitation may limit production, but the amount of precipitation does not appear to have an effect above a certain minimum level. (auth)

Investigation of error sources in regional inverse estimates of greenhouse gas emissions in Canada

Science.gov (United States)

Chan, E.; Chan, D.; Ishizawa, M.; Vogel, F.; Brioude, J.; Delcloo, A.; Wu, Y.; Jin, B.

2015-08-01

Inversion models can use atmospheric concentration measurements to estimate surface fluxes. This study is an evaluation of the errors in a regional flux inversion model for different provinces of Canada, Alberta (AB), Saskatchewan (SK) and Ontario (ON). Using CarbonTracker model results as the target, the synthetic data experiment analyses examined the impacts of the errors from the Bayesian optimisation method, prior flux distribution and the atmospheric transport model, as well as their interactions. The scaling factors for different sub-regions were estimated by the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation and cost function minimization (CFM) methods. The CFM method results are sensitive to the relative size of the assumed model-observation mismatch and prior flux error variances. Experiment results show that the estimation error increases with the number of sub-regions using the CFM method. For the region definitions that lead to realistic flux estimates, the numbers of sub-regions for the western region of AB/SK combined and the eastern region of ON are 11 and 4 respectively. The corresponding annual flux estimation errors for the western and eastern regions using the MCMC (CFM) method are -7 and -3 % (0 and 8 %) respectively, when there is only prior flux error. The estimation errors increase to 36 and 94 % (40 and 232 %) resulting from transport model error alone. When prior and transport model errors co-exist in the inversions, the estimation errors become 5 and 85 % (29 and 201 %). This result indicates that estimation errors are dominated by the transport model error and can in fact cancel each other and propagate to the flux estimates non-linearly. In addition, it is possible for the posterior flux estimates having larger differences than the prior compared to the target fluxes, and the posterior uncertainty estimates could be unrealistically small that do not cover the target. The systematic evaluation of the different components of the inversion

Annual ecosystem respiration budget for a Pinus sylvestris stand in central Siberia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shibistova, O.; Zrazhevskaya, G.; Astrakhantceva, N.; Shijneva, I.; Lloyd, J.; Arneth, A.; Kolle, J.; Knohl, A.; Schmerler, J.

2002-01-01

Using a ground-based and an above-canopy eddy covariance system in addition to stem respiration measurements, the annual respiratory fluxes attributable to soil, stems and foliage were determined for a Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) forest growing in central Siberia. Night-time foliar respiration was estimated on the basis of the difference between fluxes measured below and above the canopy and the stem respiration measurements. Comparison of the effects of night-time turbulence on measured CO 2 fluxes showed flux loss above the canopy at low wind speeds, but no such effect was observed for the ground-based eddy system. This suggests that problems with flow homogeneity or flux divergence (both of which would be expected to be greater above the canopy than below) were responsible for above-canopy losses under these conditions. After correcting for this, a strong seasonality in foliar respiration was observed. This was not solely attributable to temperature variations, with intrinsic foliar respiratory capacities being much greater in spring and autumn. The opposite pattern was observed for stem respiration, with the intrinsic respiratory capacity being lower from autumn through early spring. Maximum respiratory activity was observed in early summer. This was not simply associated with a response to higher temperatures but seemed closely linked with cambial activity and the development of new xylem elements. Soil respiration rates exhibited an apparent high sensitivity to temperature, with seasonal data implying a Q 10 of about 7. We interpret this as reflecting covarying changes in soil microbial activity and soil temperatures throughout the snow-free season. Averaged over the two study years (1999 and 2000), the annual respiratory flux was estimated at 38.3 mol C/m 2 /a. Of this 0.61 was attributable to soil respiration, with stem respiration accounting for 0.21 and foliar respiration 0.18

Modern Estimates of Global Water Cycle Fluxes

Science.gov (United States)

Rodell, M.; Beaudoing, H. K.; L'Ecuyer, T. S.; Olson, W. S.

2014-12-01

The goal of the first phase of the NASA Energy and Water Cycle Study (NEWS) Water and Energy Cycle Climatology project was to develop "state of the global water cycle" and "state of the global energy cycle" assessments based on data from modern ground and space based observing systems and data integrating models. Here we describe results of the water cycle assessment, including mean annual and monthly fluxes over continents and ocean basins during the first decade of the millennium. To the extent possible, the water flux estimates are based on (1) satellite measurements and (2) data-integrating models. A careful accounting of uncertainty in each flux was applied within a routine that enforced multiple water and energy budget constraints simultaneously in a variational framework, in order to produce objectively-determined, optimized estimates. Simultaneous closure of the water and energy budgets caused the ocean evaporation and precipitation terms to increase by about 10% and 5% relative to the original estimates, mainly because the energy budget required turbulent heat fluxes to be substantially larger in order to balance net radiation. In the majority of cases, the observed annual, surface and atmospheric water budgets over the continents and oceans close with much less than 10% residual. Observed residuals and optimized uncertainty estimates are considerably larger for monthly surface and atmospheric water budget closure, often nearing or exceeding 20% in North America, Eurasia, Australia and neighboring islands, and the Arctic and South Atlantic Oceans. The residuals in South America and Africa tend to be smaller, possibly because cold land processes are a non-issue. Fluxes are poorly observed over the Arctic Ocean, certain seas, Antarctica, and the Australasian and Indonesian Islands, leading to reliance on atmospheric analysis estimates. Other details of the study and future directions will be discussed.

Sensitivity of isoprene emissions estimated using MEGAN to the time resolution of input climate data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Ashworth

2010-02-01

Full Text Available We evaluate the effect of varying the temporal resolution of the input climate data on isoprene emission estimates generated by the community emissions model MEGAN (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature. The estimated total global annual emissions of isoprene is reduced from 766 Tg y⁻¹ when using hourly input data to 746 Tg y⁻¹ (a reduction of 3% for daily average input data and 711 Tg y⁻¹ (down 7% for monthly average input data. The impact on a local scale can be more significant with reductions of up to 55% at some locations when using monthly average data compared with using hourly data. If the daily and monthly average temperature data are used without the imposition of a diurnal cycle the global emissions estimates fall by 27–32%, and local annual emissions by up to 77%. A similar pattern emerges if hourly isoprene fluxes are considered. In order to better simulate and predict isoprene emission rates using MEGAN, we show it is necessary to use temperature and radiation data resolved to one hour. Given the importance of land-atmosphere interactions in the Earth system and the low computational cost of the MEGAN algorithms, we recommend that chemistry-climate models and the new generation of Earth system models input biogenic emissions at the highest temporal resolution possible.

Determination of indoor radon concentration levels and the associated annual effective dose rate in some Ghanaian dwellings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nsiah-Akoto, I.

2010-01-01

cancer risk increased with indoor radon concentration. The odds ratio for the present study at 95% confidence interval was 7 (CI 0.92 - 53.16). 0.13(CI 0.02 - 0.73), 0.20 (CI0.02 - 2.39), 5.5 (CI 0.88 - 34.46), 0.25 (CI 0.05 - 1.26), 0.38(CI 0.12 - 1.22) were ORs and 95% confidence interval for the previous studies respectively. Using the BEIR III model, 5 cases of lung cancer was estimated. These results show that the indoor radon level in the present study has increased tremendously as compared to the same study area 20years ago. Though most of the houses have radon activity in the range of intervention level (200-600) Bq/m3 as recommended by ICRP (1993) and the annual effective dose in the ICRP recommendations (3mSv/y-l0mSv/y), a lot more studies needs to be done to come out with a national reference level. The radon activity has not only been found to vary with the construction mode of houses but also with the ventilation conditions and the geology of the area. The results obtained also give a correlation between indoor radon levels and the associated level of risk. (au)

Regional analysis of annual maximum rainfall using TL-moments method

Science.gov (United States)

Shabri, Ani Bin; Daud, Zalina Mohd; Ariff, Noratiqah Mohd

2011-06-01

Information related to distributions of rainfall amounts are of great importance for designs of water-related structures. One of the concerns of hydrologists and engineers is the probability distribution for modeling of regional data. In this study, a novel approach to regional frequency analysis using L-moments is revisited. Subsequently, an alternative regional frequency analysis using the TL-moments method is employed. The results from both methods were then compared. The analysis was based on daily annual maximum rainfall data from 40 stations in Selangor Malaysia. TL-moments for the generalized extreme value (GEV) and generalized logistic (GLO) distributions were derived and used to develop the regional frequency analysis procedure. TL-moment ratio diagram and Z-test were employed in determining the best-fit distribution. Comparison between the two approaches showed that the L-moments and TL-moments produced equivalent results. GLO and GEV distributions were identified as the most suitable distributions for representing the statistical properties of extreme rainfall in Selangor. Monte Carlo simulation was used for performance evaluation, and it showed that the method of TL-moments was more efficient for lower quantile estimation compared with the L-moments.

Determination of radon concentration in drinking water resources of villages nearby Lalehzar fault and evaluation the annual effective dose

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mohammad Malakootian; Zahra Darabi Fard; Mojtaba Rahimi

2015-01-01

The radon concentration has been measured in 44 drinking water resources, in villages nearby Lalehzar fault in winter 2014. Some samples showed a higher concentration of radon surpassing limit set by EPA. Further, a sample was taken from water distribution networks for these sources of water. Soluble radon concentration was measured by RAD7 device. Range radon concentration was 26.88 and 0.74 BqL -1 respectively. The maximum and minimum annual effective dose for adults was estimated at 52.7 and 2.29 µSvY -1 , respectively. Reducing radon from water before use is recommended to improve public health. (author)

Correlation between Annual Corn Crop per Hectare in Croatia and Drought Indices for Zagreb-Gric Observatory

Science.gov (United States)

Pandzic, Kreso; Likso, Tanja

2017-04-01

Correlation coefficients between annual corn crop per hectare in Croatia and 9-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for Zagreb - Gric for August are shown as significant. The results indicate that there is also a significant correlation between those drought indices and drought damages. Thus a forecast of the indices for August could be used for estimation e.g. annual corn crop per hectare in Croatia. Better results could be expected if statistical relationship between annual corn crops per hectare will be considered on county level instead the whole Croatia and indices calculated for weather stations for the same county. Effective way for reduction of drought damages is irrigation which need to be significantly improved in future in Croatia

Estimated annual incomes of South African traditional healers as generated by their practices and sales of their pre-modern traditional health products for 2015/2016

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gabriel Louw

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Background In South Africa, it is an accepted fact that the main role players in the manufacturing and selling of so called traditional medicine (TAM are traditional healers. The Traditional Health Practitioners Act No 22 not only strengthened this perception in 2007 by giving statutory recognition to traditional healers as traditional health practitioners, but also with its various definitions as they are reflected in the Act. There is an estimation that South African research on traditional healing that TAM, specifically under the guardianship of the traditional healers, generates in excess of R2 billion (R2,000 million annually. The idea also exists that the traditional healers offer a widespread indispensable medical service, specifically through their medical and health products, which contributes to a further R1 billion (R1,000 million or more in income. Aims The study aims to estimate the annual income generated by South African traditional healers in their practices and with the manufacturing, prescription and selling of their traditional health products for the period 2015/2016. Methods This is an exploratory and descriptive study that makes use of an historical approach by means of investigation and a literature review. The emphasis is on using current documentation like articles, books and newspapers as primary sources to reflect on the South African traditional healers’ estimated annual incomes as generated by their practices and the manufacturing, prescription and selling of their health and medical products for the period 2015/2016. The findings are offered in narrative form. Results Over the years, it seems that a misconception was established in South Africa about what traditional medicines really are and who the specific manufacturers and sellers are. There is no differentiation between the traditional medicines offered and marketed in the South African retail and commercial market, and those prepared by traditional healers

78 FR 36117 - Fisheries Off West Coast States; Coastal Pelagic Species Fisheries; Annual Specifications

Science.gov (United States)

2013-06-17

... which directed fishing is stopped), with the annual biomass estimate being the primary determinant in... action is based on the average Pacific sardine ex-vessel price per mt. NMFS used average Pacific sardine ex-vessel price per mt to conduct a profitability analysis because cost data for the harvesting...

The Influence of Mark-Recapture Sampling Effort on Estimates of Rock Lobster Survival.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ziya Kordjazi

Full Text Available Five annual capture-mark-recapture surveys on Jasus edwardsii were used to evaluate the effect of sample size and fishing effort on the precision of estimated survival probability. Datasets of different numbers of individual lobsters (ranging from 200 to 1,000 lobsters were created by random subsampling from each annual survey. This process of random subsampling was also used to create 12 datasets of different levels of effort based on three levels of the number of traps (15, 30 and 50 traps per day and four levels of the number of sampling-days (2, 4, 6 and 7 days. The most parsimonious Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS model for estimating survival probability shifted from a constant model towards sex-dependent models with increasing sample size and effort. A sample of 500 lobsters or 50 traps used on four consecutive sampling-days was required for obtaining precise survival estimations for males and females, separately. Reduced sampling effort of 30 traps over four sampling days was sufficient if a survival estimate for both sexes combined was sufficient for management of the fishery.

The Influence of Mark-Recapture Sampling Effort on Estimates of Rock Lobster Survival

Science.gov (United States)

Kordjazi, Ziya; Frusher, Stewart; Buxton, Colin; Gardner, Caleb; Bird, Tomas

2016-01-01

Five annual capture-mark-recapture surveys on Jasus edwardsii were used to evaluate the effect of sample size and fishing effort on the precision of estimated survival probability. Datasets of different numbers of individual lobsters (ranging from 200 to 1,000 lobsters) were created by random subsampling from each annual survey. This process of random subsampling was also used to create 12 datasets of different levels of effort based on three levels of the number of traps (15, 30 and 50 traps per day) and four levels of the number of sampling-days (2, 4, 6 and 7 days). The most parsimonious Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model for estimating survival probability shifted from a constant model towards sex-dependent models with increasing sample size and effort. A sample of 500 lobsters or 50 traps used on four consecutive sampling-days was required for obtaining precise survival estimations for males and females, separately. Reduced sampling effort of 30 traps over four sampling days was sufficient if a survival estimate for both sexes combined was sufficient for management of the fishery. PMID:26990561

The cost of Alzheimer's disease in China and re-estimation of costs worldwide.

Science.gov (United States)

Jia, Jianping; Wei, Cuibai; Chen, Shuoqi; Li, Fangyu; Tang, Yi; Qin, Wei; Zhao, Lina; Jin, Hongmei; Xu, Hui; Wang, Fen; Zhou, Aihong; Zuo, Xiumei; Wu, Liyong; Han, Ying; Han, Yue; Huang, Liyuan; Wang, Qi; Li, Dan; Chu, Changbiao; Shi, Lu; Gong, Min; Du, Yifeng; Zhang, Jiewen; Zhang, Junjian; Zhou, Chunkui; Lv, Jihui; Lv, Yang; Xie, Haiqun; Ji, Yong; Li, Fang; Yu, Enyan; Luo, Benyan; Wang, Yanjiang; Yang, Shanshan; Qu, Qiumin; Guo, Qihao; Liang, Furu; Zhang, Jintao; Tan, Lan; Shen, Lu; Zhang, Kunnan; Zhang, Jinbiao; Peng, Dantao; Tang, Muni; Lv, Peiyuan; Fang, Boyan; Chu, Lan; Jia, Longfei; Gauthier, Serge

2018-04-01

The socioeconomic costs of Alzheimer's disease (AD) in China and its impact on global economic burden remain uncertain. We collected data from 3098 patients with AD in 81 representative centers across China and estimated AD costs for individual patient and total patients in China in 2015. Based on this data, we re-estimated the worldwide costs of AD. The annual socioeconomic cost per patient was US $19,144.36, and total costs were US $167.74 billion in 2015. The annual total costs are predicted to reach US $507.49 billion in 2030 and US $1.89 trillion in 2050. Based on our results, the global estimates of costs for dementia were US $957.56 billion in 2015, and will be US $2.54 trillion in 2030, and US $9.12 trillion in 2050, much more than the predictions by the World Alzheimer Report 2015. China bears a heavy burden of AD costs, which greatly change the estimates of AD cost worldwide. Copyright © 2017 the Alzheimer's Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The growth of government annual budget through taxes collection

Science.gov (United States)

Maiga, Sekou; Xu, Feng Ju

2017-09-01

In this case study we examine the relationship between the collection of taxes and the growth of government annual revenues (case of republic of Mali). Taxation is the most important source of revenue for modern governments, typically accounting for ninety percent or more of their income, Taxes revenues has contributed a big chunk of funds to the Malian Treasury, about 40%, with our focus being on the years (2012-2017). The primary economic goals of developing countries are to increase the rate of economic growth and hence per capita income, which leads to a higher standard of living. Government needs money to be able to execute its social obligations to the public and these social obligations include but not limited to the provision of infrastructure and social services. Progressive tax rate can be employed to achieve equitable distribution of resources. After economic modeling and estimation, we realized that there is a positive correlation between taxes collection changes and the government annual revenue.

Estimation model of soil freeze-thaw erosion in Silingco watershed wetland of Northern Tibet.

Science.gov (United States)

Kong, Bo; Yu, Huan

2013-01-01

The freeze-thaw (FT) erosion is a type of soil erosion like water erosion and wind erosion. Limited by many factors, the grading evaluation of soil FT erosion quantities is not well studied. Based on the comprehensive analysis of the evaluation indices of soil FT erosion, we for the first time utilized the sensitivity of microwave remote sensing technology to soil moisture for identification of FT state. We established an estimation model suitable to evaluate the soil FT erosion quantity in Silingco watershed wetland of Northern Tibet using weighted summation method of six impact factors including the annual FT cycle days, average diurnal FT phase-changed water content, average annual precipitation, slope, aspect, and vegetation coverage. Finally, with the support of GIS, we classified soil FT erosion quantity in Silingco watershed wetland. The results showed that soil FT erosion are distributed in broad areas of Silingco watershed wetland. Different soil FT erosions with different intensities have evidently different spatial and geographical distributions.

Application of at-site peak-streamflow frequency analyses for very low annual exceedance probabilities

Science.gov (United States)

Asquith, William H.; Kiang, Julie E.; Cohn, Timothy A.

2017-07-17

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, has investigated statistical methods for probabilistic flood hazard assessment to provide guidance on very low annual exceedance probability (AEP) estimation of peak-streamflow frequency and the quantification of corresponding uncertainties using streamgage-specific data. The term “very low AEP” implies exceptionally rare events defined as those having AEPs less than about 0.001 (or 1 × 10–3 in scientific notation or for brevity 10–3). Such low AEPs are of great interest to those involved with peak-streamflow frequency analyses for critical infrastructure, such as nuclear power plants. Flood frequency analyses at streamgages are most commonly based on annual instantaneous peak streamflow data and a probability distribution fit to these data. The fitted distribution provides a means to extrapolate to very low AEPs. Within the United States, the Pearson type III probability distribution, when fit to the base-10 logarithms of streamflow, is widely used, but other distribution choices exist. The USGS-PeakFQ software, implementing the Pearson type III within the Federal agency guidelines of Bulletin 17B (method of moments) and updates to the expected moments algorithm (EMA), was specially adapted for an “Extended Output” user option to provide estimates at selected AEPs from 10–3 to 10–6. Parameter estimation methods, in addition to product moments and EMA, include L-moments, maximum likelihood, and maximum product of spacings (maximum spacing estimation). This study comprehensively investigates multiple distributions and parameter estimation methods for two USGS streamgages (01400500 Raritan River at Manville, New Jersey, and 01638500 Potomac River at Point of Rocks, Maryland). The results of this study specifically involve the four methods for parameter estimation and up to nine probability distributions, including the generalized extreme value, generalized

Estimation of individual doses from external exposures and dose-group classification of cohort members in high background radiation area in Yangjiang, China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yuan Yongling; Shen Hong; Sun Quanfu; Wei Luxin

1999-01-01

Objective: In order to estimate annual effective doses from external exposures in the high background radiation area (HBRA) and in the control area (CA) , the authors measured absorbed dose rates in air from terrestrial gamma radiation with different dosimeters. A dose group classification was an important step for analyzing the dose effects relationship among the cohort members in the investigated areas. The authors used the hamlet specific average annual effective doses of all the 526 hamlets in the investigated areas. A classification of four dose groups was made for the cohort members (high, moderate, low and control) . Methods: For the purpose of studying the dose effect relationships among the cohort members in HBRA and CA, it would be ideal that each subject has his own record of individual accumulated doses received before the evaluation. However, rt is difficult to realize it in practice (each of 106517 persons should wear TLD for a long time) . Thus the authors planned two sets of measurements. Firstly, to measure the environmental dose rates (outdoor, indoor, over the bed) in every hamlet of the investigated area (526 hamlets) , considering the occupancy factors for males and females of different age groups to convert to the annual effective dose from the data of dose rates. Secondly, to measure the individual cumulative dose with TLD for part of the subjects in the investigated areas. Results: Based on the two sets of measurements, the estimates of average annual effective doses in HBRA were 211.86 and 206.75 x 10 -5 Sv/a, respectively, 68.60 and 67.11 x 10 -5 Sv/a, respectively(gamma radiation only) . The intercomparison between these two sets of measurement showed that they were in good correlation. Thus the authors are able to yield the equations of linear regression: Y = 0.9937 + 6.0444, r = 0.9949. Conclusions: The authors took the value obtained from direct measurement as 'standard' , and 15 % for uncertainty of measurement. Since the estimates of

The SRTR/OPTN Annual Data Report

Science.gov (United States)

... Annual Data Report The SRTR/OPTN Annual Data Report Statistics on donation and transplantation in the United ... US in 2015. The SRTR/OPTN Annual Data Report SRTR/OPTN Annual Data Report Learn more from ...

Average annual doses, lifetime doses and associated risk of cancer death for radiation workers in various fuel fabrication facilities in India

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iyer, P.S.; Dhond, R.V.

1980-01-01

Lifetime doses based on average annual doses are estimated for radiation workers in various fuel fabrication facilities in India. For such cumulative doses, the risk of radiation-induced cancer death is computed. The methodology for arriving at these estimates and the assumptions made are discussed. Based on personnel monitoring records from 1966 to 1978, the average annual dose equivalent for radiation workers is estimated as 0.9 mSv (90 mrem), and the maximum risk of cancer death associated with this occupational dose as 1.35x10 -5 a -1 , as compared with the risk of death due to natural causes of 7x10 -4 a -1 and the risk of death due to background radiation alone of 1.5x10 -5 a -1 . (author)

Annual all-cause mortality rate for patients with diabetic kidney disease in Singapore

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yee Gary Ang

2016-06-01

Conclusion: Our study estimated the annual all-cause mortality rate for Singaporean patients with diabetic kidney disease by CKD stages and identified predictors of all-cause mortality. This study has affirmed the poor prognosis of these patients and an urgency to intervene early so as to retard the progression to later stages of CKD.

Petroleum supply annual 1996: Volume 1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1997-06-01

The Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA) contains information on the supply and disposition of crude oil and petroleum products. The publication reflects data that were collected from the petroleum industry during 1996 through annual and monthly surveys. The PSA is divided into two volumes. This first volume contains three sections: Summary Statistics, Detailed Statistics, and Refinery Capacity; each with final annual data. The summary statistics section show 16 years of data depicting the balance between supply, disposition and ending stocks for various commodities including crude oil, motor gasoline, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, jet fuel propane/propylene, and liquefied petroleum gases. The detailed statistics section provide 1996 detailed statistics on supply and disposition, refinery operations, imports and exports, stocks, and transportation of crude oil and petroleum products. The refinery capacity contain listings of refineries and associated crude oil distillation and downstream capacities by State, as of January 1, 1997, as well as summaries of corporate refinery capacities and refinery storage capacities. In addition, refinery receipts of crude oil by method of transportation for 1996 are provided. Also included are fuels consumed at refineries, and lists of shutdowns, sales, reactivations, and mergers during 1995 and 1996. 16 figs., 59 tabs.

Petroleum supply annual 1996: Volume 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-06-01

The Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA) contains information on the supply and disposition of crude oil and petroleum products. The publication reflects data that were collected from the petroleum industry during 1996 through annual and monthly surveys. The PSA is divided into two volumes. This first volume contains three sections: Summary Statistics, Detailed Statistics, and Refinery Capacity; each with final annual data. The summary statistics section show 16 years of data depicting the balance between supply, disposition and ending stocks for various commodities including crude oil, motor gasoline, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, jet fuel propane/propylene, and liquefied petroleum gases. The detailed statistics section provide 1996 detailed statistics on supply and disposition, refinery operations, imports and exports, stocks, and transportation of crude oil and petroleum products. The refinery capacity contain listings of refineries and associated crude oil distillation and downstream capacities by State, as of January 1, 1997, as well as summaries of corporate refinery capacities and refinery storage capacities. In addition, refinery receipts of crude oil by method of transportation for 1996 are provided. Also included are fuels consumed at refineries, and lists of shutdowns, sales, reactivations, and mergers during 1995 and 1996. 16 figs., 59 tabs

Short-term energy outlook annual supplement, 1993

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-01-01

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. (See Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement, DOE/EIA-0202.) The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the third quarter of 1993 through the fourth quarter of 1994. Values for the second quarter of 1993, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data are EIA data published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding

Forecasting overhaul or replacement intervals based on estimated system failure intensity

Science.gov (United States)

Gannon, James M.

1994-12-01

System reliability can be expressed in terms of the pattern of failure events over time. Assuming a nonhomogeneous Poisson process and Weibull intensity function for complex repairable system failures, the degree of system deterioration can be approximated. Maximum likelihood estimators (MLE's) for the system Rate of Occurrence of Failure (ROCOF) function are presented. Evaluating the integral of the ROCOF over annual usage intervals yields the expected number of annual system failures. By associating a cost of failure with the expected number of failures, budget and program policy decisions can be made based on expected future maintenance costs. Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the range and the distribution of the net present value and internal rate of return of alternative cash flows based on the distributions of the cost inputs and confidence intervals of the MLE's.

Estimates of long-term mean-annual nutrient loads considered for use in SPARROW models of the Midcontinental region of Canada and the United States, 2002 base year

Science.gov (United States)

Saad, David A.; Benoy, Glenn A.; Robertson, Dale M.

2018-05-11

Streamflow and nutrient concentration data needed to compute nitrogen and phosphorus loads were compiled from Federal, State, Provincial, and local agency databases and also from selected university databases. The nitrogen and phosphorus loads are necessary inputs to Spatially Referenced Regressions on Watershed Attributes (SPARROW) models. SPARROW models are a way to estimate the distribution, sources, and transport of nutrients in streams throughout the Midcontinental region of Canada and the United States. After screening the data, approximately 1,500 sites sampled by 34 agencies were identified as having suitable data for calculating the long-term mean-annual nutrient loads required for SPARROW model calibration. These final sites represent a wide range in watershed sizes, types of nutrient sources, and land-use and watershed characteristics in the Midcontinental region of Canada and the United States.

Estimated annual cost of arterial hypertension treatment in Brazil Costo estimado anual del tratamiento de la hipertensión arterial en Brasil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Murilo W. Dib

2010-02-01

Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: To estimate the direct annual cost of systemic arterial hypertension (SAH treatment in Brazil's public and private health care systems, assess its economic impact on the total health care budget, and determine its proportion of the 2005 gross domestic product (GDP. METHODS: A decision tree model was used to determine direct costs based on estimated use of various resources in SAH diagnosis and care, including treatment (medication and non-medication, complementary exams, doctor visits, nutritional assessments, and emergency room visits. RESULTS: Estimated direct annual cost of SAH treatment was approximately US$ 398.9 million for the public health care system and US$ 272.7 million for the private system, representing 0.08% of the 2005 GDP (ranging from 0.05% to 0.16%. With total health care expenses comprising about 7.6% of Brazil's GDP, this cost represented 1.11% of overall health care costs (0.62% to 2.06%-1.43% of total expenses for the Unified Healthcare System (Sistema Único de Saúde, SUS (0.79% to 2.75% and 0.83% of expenses for the private health care system (0.47% to 1.48%. Conclusion. To guarantee public or private health care based on the principles of universality and equality, with limited available resources, efforts must be focused on educating the population on prevention and treatment compliance in diseases such as SAH that require significant health resources.OBJETIVOS: Estimar el costo directo anual del tratamiento de la hipertensión arterial sistémica (HAS en los sistemas sanitarios público y privado de Brasil, evaluar su impacto económico en el presupuesto total de salud y determinar la proporción del producto interno bruto (PIB que ocupó en 2005. MÉTODOS: Se empleó un modelo de árbol de decisión para determinar los costos directos según el uso estimado de varios recursos en el diagnóstico y la atención de la HAS, incluidos el tratamiento (con medicamentos y sin ellos, los exámenes complementarios

Estimating the amount and distribution of radon flux density from the soil surface in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhuo Weihai; Guo Qiuju; Chen Bo; Cheng Guan

2008-01-01

Based on an idealized model, both the annual and the seasonal radon ( 222 Rn) flux densities from the soil surface at 1099 sites in China were estimated by linking a database of soil 226 Ra content and a global ecosystems database. Digital maps of the 222 Rn flux density in China were constructed in a spatial resolution of 25 km x 25 km by interpolation among the estimated data. An area-weighted annual average 222 Rn flux density from the soil surface across China was estimated to be 29.7 ± 9.4 mBq m -2 s -1 . Both regional and seasonal variations in the 222 Rn flux densities are significant in China. Annual average flux densities in the southeastern and northwestern China are generally higher than those in other regions of China, because of high soil 226 Ra content in the southeastern area and high soil aridity in the northwestern one. The seasonal average flux density is generally higher in summer/spring than winter, since relatively higher soil temperature and lower soil water saturation in summer/spring than other seasons are common in China

Annual Carbon Emissions from Deforestation in the Amazon Basin between 2000 and 2010.

Science.gov (United States)

Song, Xiao-Peng; Huang, Chengquan; Saatchi, Sassan S; Hansen, Matthew C; Townshend, John R

2015-01-01

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) is considered one of the most cost-effective strategies for mitigating climate change. However, historical deforestation and emission rates-critical inputs for setting reference emission levels for REDD+-are poorly understood. Here we use multi-source, time-series satellite data to quantify carbon emissions from deforestation in the Amazon basin on a year-to-year basis between 2000 and 2010. We first derive annual deforestation indicators by using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Vegetation Continuous Fields (MODIS VCF) product. MODIS indicators are calibrated by using a large sample of Landsat data to generate accurate deforestation rates, which are subsequently combined with a spatially explicit biomass dataset to calculate committed annual carbon emissions. Across the study area, the average deforestation and associated carbon emissions were estimated to be 1.59 ± 0.25 M ha•yr(-1) and 0.18 ± 0.07 Pg C•yr(-1) respectively, with substantially different trends and inter-annual variability in different regions. Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon increased between 2001 and 2004 and declined substantially afterwards, whereas deforestation in the Bolivian Amazon, the Colombian Amazon, and the Peruvian Amazon increased over the study period. The average carbon density of lost forests after 2005 was 130 Mg C•ha(-1), ~11% lower than the average carbon density of remaining forests in year 2010 (144 Mg C•ha(-1)). Moreover, the average carbon density of cleared forests increased at a rate of 7 Mg C•ha(-1)•yr(-1) from 2005 to 2010, suggesting that deforestation has been progressively encroaching into high-biomass lands in the Amazon basin. Spatially explicit, annual deforestation and emission estimates like the ones derived in this study are useful for setting baselines for REDD+ and other emission mitigation programs, and for evaluating the performance of such efforts.

Housing wealth and US money demand : A panel estimation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Arnold, I.J.M.; Roelands, S.

2011-01-01

This article estimates a panel model for U.S. money demand using annual state-level data for the period from 1977 to 2008. We incorporate housing wealth in the demand-for-money function and find strong evidence of a relationship between a broad monetary aggregate and housing wealth. This finding is

The complementary relationship in estimation of regional evapotranspiration: An enhanced Advection-Aridity model

Science.gov (United States)

Michael T. Hobbins; Jorge A. Ramirez; Thomas C. Brown

2001-01-01

Long-term monthly evapotranspiration estimates from Brutsaert and Stricker’s Advection-Aridity model were compared with independent estimates of evapotranspiration derived from long-term water balances for 139 undisturbed basins across the conterminous United States. On an average annual basis for the period 1962-1988 the original model, which uses a Penman wind...

78 FR 64912 - Annual Retail Trade Survey

Science.gov (United States)

2013-10-30

... collect data covering annual sales, annual e-commerce sales, year-end inventories held inside and outside... provides, on a comparable classification basis, annual sales, annual e-commerce sales, year-end inventories... firms selected will provide, with measurable reliability, statistics on annual sales, annual e-commerce...

Annual site environmental report for calendar year 1994

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-01-01

The Western Area Power Administration (Western) has established a formal environmental protection, auditing, monitoring, and planning program that has been in effect since 1978. The significant environmental projects and issues Western was involved with in 1994 are discussed in this annual site environmental report. It is written to show the nature and effectiveness of the environmental protection program. The Department of Energy order 5400.1, Chapter II.4, requires the preparation of an annual site environmental report. Because Western has facilities located in 15 states, this report addresses the environmental activities in all the facilities as one ''site.''

A Web-Based Tool to Estimate Pollutant Loading Using LOADEST

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Youn Shik Park

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Collecting and analyzing water quality samples is costly and typically requires significant effort compared to streamflow data, thus water quality data are typically collected at a low frequency. Regression models, identifying a relationship between streamflow and water quality data, are often used to estimate pollutant loads. A web-based tool using LOAD ESTimator (LOADEST as a core engine with four modules was developed to provide user-friendly interfaces and input data collection via web access. The first module requests and receives streamflow and water quality data from the U.S. Geological Survey. The second module retrieves watershed area for computation of pollutant loads per unit area. The third module examines potential error of input datasets for LOADEST runs, and the last module computes estimated and allowable annual average pollutant loads and provides tabular and graphical LOADEST outputs. The web-based tool was applied to two watersheds in this study, one agriculturally-dominated and one urban-dominated. It was found that annual sediment load at the urban-dominant watershed exceeded the target load; therefore, the web-based tool identified correctly the watershed requiring best management practices to reduce pollutant loads.