WorldWideScience

Sample records for estimate daily solar

  1. A method for daily global solar radiation estimation from two instantaneous values using MODIS atmospheric products

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu, Xiaojun; Du, Huaqiang; Zhou, Guomo; Mao, Fangjie; Li, Pingheng; Fan, Weiliang; Zhu, Dien

    2016-01-01

    Accurate information on the temporal and spatial distributions of solar radiation is very important in many scientific fields. In this study, instantaneous solar irradiances on a horizontal surface at 10:30 and 13:30 local time (LT) were calculated from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) atmospheric data products with relatively high spatial resolution using a solar radiation model. These solar irradiances were combined to derive half-hourly averages of solar irradiance (HASI) and daily global solar radiation (GSR) on a horizontal surface using linear interpolation, piecewise linear regression, and quadratic polynomial regression. Compared with field observations, the HASI were estimated accurately when the total cloud fraction (TCF) was 0.6. Overall, the daily GSR estimated in this study was better than that estimated by the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis of NASA. The daily GSR estimated in this study was underestimated, whereas it was overestimated by MERRA. The combination of the daily GSR estimates of this study and MERRA offers a simple and feasible technique for reducing uncertainty in daily GSR estimates. - Highlights: • Daily GSR is integrated from two observations from the MODIS products. • Daily GSR from the MODIS products is underestimated. • Biases were attributed primarily to variations in the total cloud percent. • Combining daily GSR estimates from the MODIS and the MERRA increases accuracy.

  2. Applicability of Daily Solar Radiation Estimated by Mountain Microclimate Simulation Model (MT-CLIM) in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shim, K.M.; Kim, Y.S.; Lee, D.B.; Kang, K.K.; So, K.H.

    2012-01-01

    Accuracy of daily solar radiation estimated from a Mountain Microclimate Simulation Model (MT-CLIM) was assessed for seven observation sites with complex topography in Uiseong County. The coefficient of determination () between the observed and the estimated daily solar radiation was 0.52 for 7 sites for the study period from 1 August to 30 September 2009. Overall, the MT-CLIM overestimated the solar radiation with root mean square error (RMSE) of which is about 25% of the mean daily solar radiation () for the study period. Considering that the pyranometer's tolerance is of standard sensor, the RMSE of MT-CLIM was too large to accept for a direct application for agricultural sector. The reliability of solar radiation estimated by MT-CLIM must be improved by considering additional ways such as using a topography correction coefficient

  3. A critical review on the estimation of daily global solar radiation from sunshine duration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yorukoglu, Mehmet; Celik, Ali Naci

    2006-01-01

    Models such as the Angstroem-Prescott equation are used to estimate global solar radiation from sunshine duration. In the literature, researchers investigate either the goodness of the model itself or the goodness of the estimation of global solar radiation based on a set of statistical parameters such as R 2 , RMSE, MBE, MABE, MPE and MAPE. If the former is the objective, then the statistical analysis should naturally be based on H/H o - S/S o (the ratio of daily solar radiation to extraterrestrial daily solar radiation vs. the ratio of sunshine duration to day length). If the latter is investigated, then the statistical analysis should be based on H c - H m (calculated daily solar radiation vs. measured daily solar radiation). A literature survey undertaken in the present article showed that these two data sets are apt to be confused, drawing the statistical parameters to be used in assessment of the estimation model from the latter data set or the vice versa set. The statistical parameters are clearly derived from the basics for both of the data sets, and the inconsistencies caused by this confusion and other factors are exposed. A case study of the estimation models and global solar radiation estimation from sunshine duration is presented using five different models (linear, quadratic, cubic, logarithmic and exponential), which are the most common models used in the literature, based on 6 years long measured hourly global solar radiation data

  4. Assessing the potential of support vector machine for estimating daily solar radiation using sunshine duration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Ji-Long; Li, Guo-Sheng; Wu, Sheng-Jun

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Support vector machine is used to estimate daily solar radiation from sunshine duration. • Seven SVM models using different input attributes are evaluated using 35 years long term data. • SVM models significantly outperform the empirical models. • The optimal SVM model is proposed. - Abstract: Estimation of solar radiation from sunshine duration offers an important alternative in the absence of measured solar radiation. However, due to the dynamic nature of atmosphere, accurate estimation of daily solar radiation has been being a challenging task. This paper presents an application of Support vector machine (SVM) to estimation of daily solar radiation using sunshine duration. Seven SVM models using different input attributes and five empirical sunshine-based models are evaluated using meteorological data at three stations in Liaoning province in China. All the SVM models give good performances and significantly outperform the empirical models. The newly developed model, SVM1 using sunshine ratio as input attribute, is preferred due to its greater accuracy and simple input attribute. It performs better in winter, while highest root mean square error and relative root mean square error are obtained in summer. The season-dependent SVM model is superior to the fixed model in estimation of daily solar radiation for winter, while consideration of seasonal variation of the data sets cannot improve the results for spring, summer and autumn. Moreover, daily solar radiation could be well estimated by SVM1 using the data from nearby stations. The results indicate that the SVM method would be a promising alternative over the traditional approaches for estimation of daily solar radiation

  5. Estimation of daily solar radiation from routinely observed meteorological data in Chongqing, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Maofen; Liu Hongbin; Guo Pengtao; Wu Wei

    2010-01-01

    Solar radiation is a very important and major variable in crop simulation models. However, it is measured at a very limited number of meteorological stations worldwide. Models were developed to estimate daily solar radiation in Chongqing, one of the most important agricultural areas in China. Several routinely observed meteorological variables including daily maximum and minimum temperatures, daily mean dew point temperature, fog and rainfall had been obtained, investigated and analyzed from 1986 to 2000 for Chongqing. The monthly mean daily solar radiation at this location ranged from a maximum of 15.082 MJ m -2 day -1 in August and a minimum of 3.042 MJ m -2 day -1 in December. A newly developed model that included all selected variables proved the best method with a RMSE value of 2.522 MJ m -2 day -1 . The best performed models for different seasons were further evaluated according to divide-and-conquer principle. The model using all selected variables provided the best estimates of daily solar radiation in winter and autumn with RMSE values of 1.491 and 2.037 MJ m -2 day -1 , respectively. The method involving temperatures and rainfall information could be used to estimate daily solar radiation in summer with a RMSE value of 3.163 MJ m -2 day -1 . The model using temperature, rainfall and dew point data performed better than other models in spring with a RMSE value of 2.910 MJ m -2 day -1 .

  6. Estimation of daily global solar radiation as a function of the solar energy potential at soil surface

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pereira, A.B.; Vrisman, A.L.; Galvani, E.

    2002-01-01

    The solar radiation received at the surface of the earth, apart from its relevance to several daily human activities, plays an important role in the growth and development of plants. The aim of the current work was to develop and gauge an estimation model for the evaluation of the global solar radiation flux density as a function of the solar energy potential at soil surface. Radiometric data were collected at Ponta Grossa, PR, Brazil (latitude 25°13' S, longitude 50°03' W, altitude 880 m). Estimated values of solar energy potential obtained as a function of only one measurement taken at solar noon time were confronted with those measured by a Robitzsch bimetalic actinograph, for days that presented insolation ratios higher than 0.85. This data set was submitted to a simple linear regression analysis, having been obtained a good adjustment between observed and calculated values. For the estimation of the coefficients a and b of Angström's equation, the method based on the solar energy potential at soil surface was used for the site under study. The methodology was efficient to assess the coefficients, aiming at the determination of the global solar radiation flux density, whith quickness and simplicity, having also found out that the criterium for the estimation of the solar energy potential is equivalent to that of the classical methodology of Angström. Knowledge of the available solar energy potential and global solar radiation flux density is of great importance for the estimation of the maximum atmospheric evaporative demand, of water consumption by irrigated crops, and also for building solar engineering equipment, such as driers, heaters, solar ovens, refrigerators, etc [pt

  7. Estimation of monthly-mean daily global solar radiation based on MODIS and TRMM products

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qin, Jun; Chen, Zhuoqi; Yang, Kun; Liang, Shunlin; Tang, Wenjun

    2011-01-01

    Global solar radiation (GSR) is required in a large number of fields. Many parameterization schemes are developed to estimate it using routinely measured meteorological variables, since GSR is directly measured at a limited number of stations. Even so, meteorological stations are sparse, especially, in remote areas. Satellite signals (radiance at the top of atmosphere in most cases) can be used to estimate continuous GSR in space. However, many existing remote sensing products have a relatively coarse spatial resolution and these inversion algorithms are too complicated to be mastered by experts in other research fields. In this study, the artificial neural network (ANN) is utilized to build the mathematical relationship between measured monthly-mean daily GSR and several high-level remote sensing products available for the public, including Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) monthly averaged land surface temperature (LST), the number of days in which the LST retrieval is performed in 1 month, MODIS enhanced vegetation index, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite (TRMM) monthly precipitation. After training, GSR estimates from this ANN are verified against ground measurements at 12 radiation stations. Then, comparisons are performed among three GSR estimates, including the one presented in this study, a surface data-based estimate, and a remote sensing product by Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA). Validation results indicate that the ANN-based method presented in this study can estimate monthly-mean daily GSR at a spatial resolution of about 5 km with high accuracy.

  8. A simple and efficient algorithm to estimate daily global solar radiation from geostationary satellite data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu, Ning; Qin, Jun; Yang, Kun; Sun, Jiulin

    2011-01-01

    Surface global solar radiation (GSR) is the primary renewable energy in nature. Geostationary satellite data are used to map GSR in many inversion algorithms in which ground GSR measurements merely serve to validate the satellite retrievals. In this study, a simple algorithm with artificial neural network (ANN) modeling is proposed to explore the non-linear physical relationship between ground daily GSR measurements and Multi-functional Transport Satellite (MTSAT) all-channel observations in an effort to fully exploit information contained in both data sets. Singular value decomposition is implemented to extract the principal signals from satellite data and a novel method is applied to enhance ANN performance at high altitude. A three-layer feed-forward ANN model is trained with one year of daily GSR measurements at ten ground sites. This trained ANN is then used to map continuous daily GSR for two years, and its performance is validated at all 83 ground sites in China. The evaluation result demonstrates that this algorithm can quickly and efficiently build the ANN model that estimates daily GSR from geostationary satellite data with good accuracy in both space and time. -- Highlights: → A simple and efficient algorithm to estimate GSR from geostationary satellite data. → ANN model fully exploits both the information from satellite and ground measurements. → Good performance of the ANN model is comparable to that of the classical models. → Surface elevation and infrared information enhance GSR inversion.

  9. Estimation of daily global solar irradiation by coupling ground measurements of bright sunshine hours to satellite imagery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ener Rusen, Selmin; Hammer, Annette; Akinoglu, Bulent G.

    2013-01-01

    In this work, the current version of the satellite-based HELIOSAT method and ground-based linear Ångström–Prescott type relations are used in combination. The first approach is based on the use of a correlation between daily bright sunshine hours (s) and cloud index (n). In the second approach a new correlation is proposed between daily solar irradiation and daily data of s and n which is based on a physical parameterization. The performances of the proposed two combined models are tested against conventional methods. We test the use of obtained correlation coefficients for nearby locations. Our results show that the use of sunshine duration together with the cloud index is quite satisfactory in the estimation of daily horizontal global solar irradiation. We propose to use the new approaches to estimate daily global irradiation when the bright sunshine hours data is available for the location of interest, provided that some regression coefficients are determined using the data of a nearby station. In addition, if surface data for a close location does not exist then it is recommended to use satellite models like HELIOSAT or the new approaches instead the Ångström type models. - Highlights: • Satellite imagery together with surface measurements in solar radiation estimation. • The new coupled and conventional models (satellite and ground-based) are analyzed. • New models result in highly accurate estimation of daily global solar irradiation

  10. Development and evaluation of neural network models to estimate daily solar radiation at Córdoba, Argentina

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bocco, M.

    2006-01-01

    The objective of this work was to develop neural network models of backpropagation type to estimate solar radiation based on extraterrestrial radiation data, daily temperature range, precipitation, cloudiness and relative sunshine duration. Data from Córdoba, Argentina, were used for development and validation. The behaviour and adjustment between values observed and estimates obtained by neural networks for different combinations of input were assessed. These estimations showed root mean square error between 3.15 and 3.88 MJ m -2 d -1 . The latter corresponds to the model that calculates radiation using only precipitation and daily temperature range. In all models, results show good adjustment to seasonal solar radiation. These results allow inferring the adequate performance and pertinence of this methodology to estimate complex phenomena, such as solar radiation [pt

  11. Estimating the daily global solar radiation spatial distribution from diurnal temperature ranges over the Tibetan Plateau in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pan, Tao; Wu, Shaohong; Dai, Erfu; Liu, Yujie

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► Bristow–Campbell model was calibrated and validated over the Tibetan Plateau. ► Develop a simple method to rasterise the daily global solar radiation and get gridded information. ► The daily global solar radiation spatial distribution over the Tibetan Plateau was estimated. - Abstract: Daily global solar radiation is fundamental to most ecological and biophysical processes because it plays a key role in the local and global energy budget. However, gridded information about the spatial distribution of solar radiation is limited. This study aims to parameterise the Bristow–Campbell model for the daily global solar radiation estimation in the Tibetan Plateau and propose a method to rasterise the daily global solar radiation. Observed daily solar radiation and diurnal temperature data from eleven stations over the Tibetan Plateau during 1971–2010 were used to calibrate and validate the Bristow–Campbell radiation model. The extra-terrestrial radiation and clear sky atmospheric transmittance were calculated on a Geographic Information System (GIS) platform. Results show that the Bristow–Campbell model performs well after adjusting the parameters, the average Pearson’s correlation coefficients (r), Nash–Sutcliffe equation (NSE), ratio of the root mean square error to the standard deviation of measured data (RSR), and root mean-square error (RMSE) of 11 stations are 0.85, 2.81 MJ m −2 day −1 , 0.3 and 0.77 respectively. Gridded maximum and minimum average temperature data were obtained using Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) and validated by the Chinese Ecosystem Research Network (CERN) stations’ data. The spatial daily global solar radiation distribution pattern was estimated and analysed by combining the solar radiation model (Bristow–Campbell model) and meteorological interpolation model (PRISM). Based on the overall results, it can be concluded that a calibrated Bristow–Campbell performs well

  12. Comparison of artificial intelligence methods and empirical equations to estimate daily solar radiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehdizadeh, Saeid; Behmanesh, Javad; Khalili, Keivan

    2016-08-01

    In the present research, three artificial intelligence methods including Gene Expression Programming (GEP), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) as well as, 48 empirical equations (10, 12 and 26 equations were temperature-based, sunshine-based and meteorological parameters-based, respectively) were used to estimate daily solar radiation in Kerman, Iran in the period of 1992-2009. To develop the GEP, ANN and ANFIS models, depending on the used empirical equations, various combinations of minimum air temperature, maximum air temperature, mean air temperature, extraterrestrial radiation, actual sunshine duration, maximum possible sunshine duration, sunshine duration ratio, relative humidity and precipitation were considered as inputs in the mentioned intelligent methods. To compare the accuracy of empirical equations and intelligent models, root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute relative error (MARE) and determination coefficient (R2) indices were used. The results showed that in general, sunshine-based and meteorological parameters-based scenarios in ANN and ANFIS models presented high accuracy than mentioned empirical equations. Moreover, the most accurate method in the studied region was ANN11 scenario with five inputs. The values of RMSE, MAE, MARE and R2 indices for the mentioned model were 1.850 MJ m-2 day-1, 1.184 MJ m-2 day-1, 9.58% and 0.935, respectively.

  13. Estimating the daily solar irradiation on building roofs and facades using Blender Cycles path tracing algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ilba Mateusz

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the development of an daily solar irradiation algorithm with application of the free software Blender. Considerable attention was paid to the possibilities of simulation of reflections of direct and diffuse solar radiation. For this purpose, the rendering algorithm “Cycles” was used, based on the principle of bi-directional path tracing – tracing random paths of light beams. The value of global radiation in this study is the sum of four components: direct beam radiation, reflected beam radiation, diffuse radiation and reflected diffuse radiation. The developed algorithm allows calculation of solar irradiation for all elements of the 3D model created in Blender, or imported from an external source. One minute is the highest possible time resolution of the analysis, while the accuracy is dependent on the resolution of textures defined for each element of a 3D object. The analysed data is stored in the form of textures that in the algorithm are converted to the value of solar radiance. The result of the analysis is visualization, which shows the distribution of daily solar irradiation on all defined elements of the 3D model.

  14. Estimation of daily flow rate of photovoltaic water pumping systems using solar radiation data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Benghanem

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a simple model which allows us to contribute in the studies of photovoltaic (PV water pumping systems sizing. The nonlinear relation between water flow rate and solar power has been obtained experimentally in a first step and then used for performance prediction. The model proposed enables us to simulate the water flow rate using solar radiation data for different heads (50 m, 60 m, 70 m and 80 m and for 8S × 3P PV array configuration. The experimental data are obtained with our pumping test facility located at Madinah site (Saudi Arabia. The performances are calculated using the measured solar radiation data of different locations in Saudi Arabia. Knowing the solar radiation data, we have estimated with a good precision the water flow rate Q in five locations (Al-Jouf, Solar Village, AL-Ahsa, Madinah and Gizan in Saudi Arabia. The flow rate Q increases with the increase of pump power for different heads following the nonlinear model proposed. Keywords: Photovoltaic water pumping system, Solar radiation data, Simulation, Flow rate

  15. Estimation of daily flow rate of photovoltaic water pumping systems using solar radiation data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benghanem, M.; Daffallah, K. O.; Almohammedi, A.

    2018-03-01

    This paper presents a simple model which allows us to contribute in the studies of photovoltaic (PV) water pumping systems sizing. The nonlinear relation between water flow rate and solar power has been obtained experimentally in a first step and then used for performance prediction. The model proposed enables us to simulate the water flow rate using solar radiation data for different heads (50 m, 60 m, 70 m and 80 m) and for 8S × 3P PV array configuration. The experimental data are obtained with our pumping test facility located at Madinah site (Saudi Arabia). The performances are calculated using the measured solar radiation data of different locations in Saudi Arabia. Knowing the solar radiation data, we have estimated with a good precision the water flow rate Q in five locations (Al-Jouf, Solar Village, AL-Ahsa, Madinah and Gizan) in Saudi Arabia. The flow rate Q increases with the increase of pump power for different heads following the nonlinear model proposed.

  16. Calibration and Evaluation of Different Estimation Models of Daily Solar Radiation in Seasonally and Annual Time Steps in Shiraz Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamid Reza Fooladmand

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Solar radiation on the earth surface has a wide range of applications in hydrology, agriculture and meteorology. Solar radiation is an important parameter of estimated models of reference crop potential evapotranspiration such as the Penman–Monteith equation. Also, total sunshine hours are one of the most important factors affecting climate and environment, and its long-term variation is of much concern in climate studies. Reference crop potential evapotranspiration is one of the most important parts of water cycle in the nature but, direct measurement of this crop parameter is so difficult and not practical. Therefore, equations that can estimate the value of evapotranspiration only by using meteorological data are necessary. As mentioned before, the Penman–Monteith equation can be used for estimating reference crop potential evapotranspiration, however this equation needs solar radiation data, and the measurement of solar radiation is done in a limited numbers of weather stations in Iran, and also in Fars province, south of Iran. Since, the measurement of solar radiation is expensive, therefore many models have been derived for its estimation in different climates of the world., Many investigators also have been tried to estimate solar radiation for different locations of the world based on more simple measured weather data such as air temperature (minimum, maximum or mean and sunshine hours. Hence, the derived equations for estimating solar radiation based on other weather data can be used for estimating reference crop potential evapotranspiration with the Penman–Monteith equation. Materials and Methods: In this study, solar radiation was estimated in Shiraz, central part of the Fars province in south of Iran. For this purpose, the daily measured of solar radiation data in Shiraz synoptic station were used. Also, other needed weather data were used. All available data was for the years 2006 to 2010. Measured data of years

  17. Effect of Estimated Daily Global Solar Radiation Data on the Results of Crop Growth Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Herbert Formayer

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available The results of previous studies have suggested that estimated daily globalradiation (RG values contain an error that could compromise the precision of subsequentcrop model applications. The following study presents a detailed site and spatial analysis ofthe RG error propagation in CERES and WOFOST crop growth models in Central Europeanclimate conditions. The research was conducted i at the eight individual sites in Austria andthe Czech Republic where measured daily RG values were available as a reference, withseven methods for RG estimation being tested, and ii for the agricultural areas of the CzechRepublic using daily data from 52 weather stations, with five RG estimation methods. In thelatter case the RG values estimated from the hours of sunshine using the ångström-Prescottformula were used as the standard method because of the lack of measured RG data. At thesite level we found that even the use of methods based on hours of sunshine, which showedthe lowest bias in RG estimates, led to a significant distortion of the key crop model outputs.When the ångström-Prescott method was used to estimate RG, for example, deviationsgreater than ±10 per cent in winter wheat and spring barley yields were noted in 5 to 6 percent of cases. The precision of the yield estimates and other crop model outputs was lowerwhen RG estimates based on the diurnal temperature range and cloud cover were used (mean bias error 2.0 to 4.1 per cent. The methods for estimating RG from the diurnal temperature range produced a wheat yield bias of more than 25 per cent in 12 to 16 per cent of the seasons. Such uncertainty in the crop model outputs makes the reliability of any seasonal yield forecasts or climate change impact assessments questionable if they are based on this type of data. The spatial assessment of the RG data uncertainty propagation over the winter wheat yields also revealed significant differences within the study area. We

  18. A comparison of methods to estimate daily global solar irradiation from other climatic variables on the Canadian prairies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barr, A.G.; McGinn, S.M.; Cheng, S.B.

    1996-01-01

    Historic estimates of daily global solar irradiation are often required for climatic impact studies. Regression equations with daily global solar irradiation, H, as the dependent variable and other climatic variables as the independent variables provide a practical way to estimate H at locations where it is not measured. They may also have potential to estimate H before 1953, the year of the first routine H measurements in Canada. This study compares several regression equations for calculating H on the Canadian prairies. Simple linear regression with daily bright sunshine duration as the dependent variable accounted for 90% of the variation of H in summer and 75% of the variation of H in winter. Linear regression with the daily air temperature range as the dependent variable accounted for 45% of the variation of H in summer and only 6% of the variation of H in winter. Linear regression with precipitation status (wet or dry) as the dependent variable accounted for only 35% of the summer-time variation in H, but stratifying other regression analyses into wet and dry days reduced their root-mean-squared errors. For periods with sufficiently dense bright sunshine observations (i.e. after 1960), however, H was more accurately estimated from spatially interpolated bright sunshine duration than from locally observed air temperature range or precipitation status. The daily air temperature range and precipitation status may have utility for estimating H for periods before 1953, when they are the only widely available climatic data on the Canadian prairies. Between 1953 and 1989, a period of large climatic variation, the regression coefficients did not vary significantly between contrasting years with cool-wet, intermediate and warm-dry summers. They should apply equally well earlier in the century. (author)

  19. A Simple Method Using a Topography Correction Coefficient for Estimating Daily Distribution of Solar Irradiance in Complex Terrain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yun, J.I.

    2009-01-01

    Accurate solar radiation data are critical to evaluate major physiological responses of plants. For most upland crops and orchard plants growing in complex terrain, however, it is not easy for farmers or agronomists to access solar irradiance data. Here we suggest a simple method using a sun-slope geometry based topographical coefficient to estimate daily solar irradiance on any sloping surfaces from global solar radiation measured at a nearby weather station. An hourly solar irradiance ratio (W i ) between sloping and horizontal surface is defined as multiplication of the relative solar intensity (k i ) and the slope irradiance ratio (r i ) at an hourly interval. The k i is the ratio of hourly solar radiation to the 24 hour cumulative radiation on a horizontal surface under clear sky conditions. The r i is the ratio of clear sky radiation on a given slope to that on a horizontal reference. Daily coefficient for slope correction is simply the sum of W i on each date. We calculated daily solar irradiance at 8 side slope locations circumventing a cone-shaped parasitic volcano (c.a., 570 m diameter for the bottom circle and 90 m bottom-to-top height) by multiplying these coefficients to the global solar radiation measured horizontally. Comparison with the measured slope irradiance from April 2007 to March 2008 resulted in the root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.61 MJ m −2 for the whole period but the RMSE for April to October (i.e., major cropping season in Korea) was much lower and satisfied the 5% error tolerance for radiation measurement. The RMSE was smallest in October regardless of slope aspect, and the aspect dependent variation of RMSE was greatest in November. Annual variation in RMSE was greatest on north and south facing slopes, followed by southwest, southeast, and northwest slopes in decreasing order. Once the coefficients are prepared, global solar radiation data from nearby stations can be easily converted to the solar irradiance map at landscape

  20. Multi-location model for the estimation of the horizontal daily diffuse fraction of solar radiation in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bortolini, Marco; Gamberi, Mauro; Graziani, Alessandro; Manzini, Riccardo; Mora, Cristina

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► A multi-location model to estimate solar radiation components is proposed. ► Proposed model joins solar radiation data from several weather stations. ► Clearness index is correlated to the diffuse component through analytic functions. ► Third degree polynomial function best fits data for annual and seasonal scenarios. ► A quality control procedure and independent datasets strength model performances. - Abstract: Hourly and daily solar radiation data are crucial for the design of energy systems based on the solar source. Global irradiance, measured on the horizontal plane, is, generally, available from weather station databases. The direct and diffuse fractions are measured rarely and should be analytically calculated for many geographical locations. Aim of this paper is to present a multi-location model to estimate the expected profiles of the horizontal daily diffuse component of solar radiation. It focuses on the European (EU) geographical area joining data from 44 weather stations located in 11 countries. Data are collected by the World Radiation Data Centre (WRDC) between 2004 and 2007. Different analytic functions, correlating the daily diffuse fraction of solar radiation to the clearness index, are calculated and compared to outline the analytic expressions of the best fitting curves. The effect of seasonality on solar irradiance is considered developing summer and winter scenarios together with annual models. Similarities among the trends for the 4 years are, further, discussed. The most adopted statistical indices are used as key performance factors. Finally, data from three locations not included in the dataset considered for model development allow to test the proposed approach against an independent dataset. Obtained results show the effectiveness of adopting a multi-location approach to estimate solar radiation components on the horizontal surface instead of developing several single location models. This is due to the increase

  1. Estimation of the daily global solar radiation based on the Gaussian process regression methodology in the Saharan climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guermoui, Mawloud; Gairaa, Kacem; Rabehi, Abdelaziz; Djafer, Djelloul; Benkaciali, Said

    2018-06-01

    Accurate estimation of solar radiation is the major concern in renewable energy applications. Over the past few years, a lot of machine learning paradigms have been proposed in order to improve the estimation performances, mostly based on artificial neural networks, fuzzy logic, support vector machine and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system. The aim of this work is the prediction of the daily global solar radiation, received on a horizontal surface through the Gaussian process regression (GPR) methodology. A case study of Ghardaïa region (Algeria) has been used in order to validate the above methodology. In fact, several combinations have been tested; it was found that, GPR-model based on sunshine duration, minimum air temperature and relative humidity gives the best results in term of mean absolute bias error (MBE), root mean square error (RMSE), relative mean square error (rRMSE), and correlation coefficient ( r) . The obtained values of these indicators are 0.67 MJ/m2, 1.15 MJ/m2, 5.2%, and 98.42%, respectively.

  2. Comparison of Gene Expression Programming with neuro-fuzzy and neural network computing techniques in estimating daily incoming solar radiation in the Basque Country (Northern Spain)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Landeras, Gorka; López, José Javier; Kisi, Ozgur; Shiri, Jalal

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Solar radiation estimation based on Gene Expression Programming is unexplored. ► This approach is evaluated for the first time in this study. ► Other artificial intelligence models (ANN and ANFIS) are also included in the study. ► New alternatives for solar radiation estimation based on temperatures are provided. - Abstract: Surface incoming solar radiation is a key variable for many agricultural, meteorological and solar energy conversion related applications. In absence of the required meteorological sensors for the detection of global solar radiation it is necessary to estimate this variable. Temperature based modeling procedures are reported in this study for estimating daily incoming solar radiation by using Gene Expression Programming (GEP) for the first time, and other artificial intelligence models such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). A comparison was also made among these techniques and traditional temperature based global solar radiation estimation equations. Root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) RMSE-based skill score (SS RMSE ), MAE-based skill score (SS MAE ) and r 2 criterion of Nash and Sutcliffe criteria were used to assess the models’ performances. An ANN (a four-input multilayer perceptron with 10 neurons in the hidden layer) presented the best performance among the studied models (2.93 MJ m −2 d −1 of RMSE). The ability of GEP approach to model global solar radiation based on daily atmospheric variables was found to be satisfactory.

  3. Estimation of the monthly average daily solar radiation using geographic information system and advanced case-based reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koo, Choongwan; Hong, Taehoon; Lee, Minhyun; Park, Hyo Seon

    2013-05-07

    The photovoltaic (PV) system is considered an unlimited source of clean energy, whose amount of electricity generation changes according to the monthly average daily solar radiation (MADSR). It is revealed that the MADSR distribution in South Korea has very diverse patterns due to the country's climatic and geographical characteristics. This study aimed to develop a MADSR estimation model for the location without the measured MADSR data, using an advanced case based reasoning (CBR) model, which is a hybrid methodology combining CBR with artificial neural network, multiregression analysis, and genetic algorithm. The average prediction accuracy of the advanced CBR model was very high at 95.69%, and the standard deviation of the prediction accuracy was 3.67%, showing a significant improvement in prediction accuracy and consistency. A case study was conducted to verify the proposed model. The proposed model could be useful for owner or construction manager in charge of determining whether or not to introduce the PV system and where to install it. Also, it would benefit contractors in a competitive bidding process to accurately estimate the electricity generation of the PV system in advance and to conduct an economic and environmental feasibility study from the life cycle perspective.

  4. Solar constant values for estimating solar radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Huashan; Lian, Yongwang; Wang, Xianlong; Ma, Weibin; Zhao, Liang

    2011-01-01

    There are many solar constant values given and adopted by researchers, leading to confusion in estimating solar radiation. In this study, some solar constant values collected from literature for estimating solar radiation with the Angstroem-Prescott correlation are tested in China using the measured data between 1971 and 2000. According to the ranking method based on the t-statistic, a strategy to select the best solar constant value for estimating the monthly average daily global solar radiation with the Angstroem-Prescott correlation is proposed. -- Research highlights: → The effect of the solar constant on estimating solar radiation is investigated. → The investigation covers a diverse range of climate and geography in China. → A strategy to select the best solar constant for estimating radiation is proposed.

  5. Solar Radiation Forecasting, Accounting for Daily Variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto Langella

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Radiation forecast accounting for daily and instantaneous variability was pursued by means of a new bi-parametric statistical model that builds on a model previously proposed by the same authors. The statistical model is developed with direct reference to the Liu-Jordan clear sky theoretical expression but is not bound by a specific clear sky model; it accounts separately for the mean daily variability and for the variation of solar irradiance during the day by means of two corrective parameters. This new proposal allows for a better understanding of the physical phenomena and improves the effectiveness of statistical characterization and subsequent simulation of the introduced parameters to generate a synthetic solar irradiance time series. Furthermore, the analysis of the experimental distributions of the two parameters’ data was developed, obtaining opportune fittings by means of parametric analytical distributions or mixtures of more than one distribution. Finally, the model was further improved toward the inclusion of weather prediction information in the solar irradiance forecasting stage, from the perspective of overcoming the limitations of purely statistical approaches and implementing a new tool in the frame of solar irradiance prediction accounting for weather predictions over different time horizons.

  6. TCTE Level 3 Total Solar Irradiance Daily Means V002

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) Calibration Transfer Experiment (TCTE) data set TCTE3TSID contains daily averaged total solar irradiance (a.k.a solar constant) data...

  7. Solar radiation estimation based on the insolation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Assis, F.N. de; Steinmetz, S.; Martins, S.R.; Mendez, M.E.G.

    1998-01-01

    A series of daily global solar radiation data measured by an Eppley pyranometer was used to test PEREIRA and VILLA NOVA’s (1997) model to estimate the potential of radiation based on the instantaneous values measured at solar noon. The model also allows to estimate the parameters of PRESCOTT’s equation (1940) assuming a = 0,29 cosj. The results demonstrated the model’s validity for the studied conditions. Simultaneously, the hypothesis of generalizing the use of the radiation estimative formulas based on insolation, and using K = Ko (0,29 cosj + 0,50 n/N), was analysed and confirmed [pt

  8. [Comparison of three daily global solar radiation models].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jin-Ming; Fan, Wen-Yi; Zhao, Ying-Hui

    2014-08-01

    Three daily global solar radiation estimation models ( Å-P model, Thornton-Running model and model provided by Liu Ke-qun et al.) were analyzed and compared using data of 13 weather stations from 1982 to 2012 from three northeastern provinces and eastern Inner Mongolia. After cross-validation analysis, the result showed that mean absolute error (MAE) for each model was 1.71, 2.83 and 1.68 MJ x m(-2) x d(-1) respectively, showing that Å-P model and model provided by Liu Ke-qun et al. which used percentage of sunshine had an advantage over Thornton-Running model which didn't use percentage of sunshine. Model provided by Liu Ke-qun et al. played a good effect on the situation of non-sunshine, and its MAE and bias percentage were 18.5% and 33.8% smaller than those of Å-P model, respectively. High precision results could be obtained by using the simple linear model of Å-P. Å-P model, Thornton-Running model and model provided by Liu Ke-qun et al. overvalued daily global solar radiation by 12.2%, 19.2% and 9.9% respectively. MAE for each station varied little with the spatial change of location, and annual MAE decreased with the advance of years. The reason for this might be that the change of observation accuracy caused by the replacement of radiation instrument in 1993. MAEs for rainy days, non-sunshine days and warm seasons of the three models were greater than those for days without rain, sunshine days and cold seasons respectively, showing that different methods should be used for different weather conditions on estimating solar radiation with meteorological elements.

  9. Estimating solar radiation in Ghana

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anane-Fenin, K.

    1986-04-01

    The estimates of global radiation on a horizontal surface for 9 towns in Ghana, West Africa, are deduced from their sunshine data using two methods developed by Angstrom and Sabbagh. An appropriate regional parameter is determined with the first method and used to predict solar irradiation in all the 9 stations with an accuracy better than 15%. Estimation of diffuse solar irradiation by Page, Lin and Jordan and three other authors' correlation are performed and the results examined. (author)

  10. TRENDS IN ESTIMATED MIXING DEPTH DAILY MAXIMUMS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buckley, R; Amy DuPont, A; Robert Kurzeja, R; Matt Parker, M

    2007-11-12

    Mixing depth is an important quantity in the determination of air pollution concentrations. Fireweather forecasts depend strongly on estimates of the mixing depth as a means of determining the altitude and dilution (ventilation rates) of smoke plumes. The Savannah River United States Forest Service (USFS) routinely conducts prescribed fires at the Savannah River Site (SRS), a heavily wooded Department of Energy (DOE) facility located in southwest South Carolina. For many years, the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) has provided forecasts of weather conditions in support of the fire program, including an estimated mixing depth using potential temperature and turbulence change with height at a given location. This paper examines trends in the average estimated mixing depth daily maximum at the SRS over an extended period of time (4.75 years) derived from numerical atmospheric simulations using two versions of the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). This allows for differences to be seen between the model versions, as well as trends on a multi-year time frame. In addition, comparisons of predicted mixing depth for individual days in which special balloon soundings were released are also discussed.

  11. A new simple parameterization of daily clear-sky global solar radiation including horizon effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopez, Gabriel; Javier Batlles, F.; Tovar-Pescador, Joaquin

    2007-01-01

    Estimation of clear-sky global solar radiation is usually an important previous stage for calculating global solar radiation under all sky conditions. This is, for instance, a common procedure to derive incoming solar radiation from remote sensing or by using digital elevation models. In this work, we present a new model to calculate daily values of clear-sky global solar irradiation. The main goal is the simple parameterization in terms of atmospheric temperature and relative humidity, Angstroem's turbidity coefficient, ground albedo and site elevation, including a factor to take into account horizon obstructions. This allows us to obtain estimates even though a free horizon is not present as is the case of mountainous locations. Comparisons of calculated daily values with measured data show that this model is able to provide a good level of accurate estimates using either daily or mean monthly values of the input parameters. This new model has also been shown to improve daily estimates against those obtained using the clear-sky model from the European Solar Radiation Atlas and other accurate parameterized daily irradiation models. The introduction of Angstroem's turbidity coefficient and ground albedo should allow us to use the increasing worldwide aerosol information available and to consider those sites affected by snow covers in an easy and fast way. In addition, the proposed model is intended to be a useful tool to select clear-sky conditions

  12. Global solar irradiation in Italy during 1994 : monthly average daily values for 1614 sites estimated from Meteosat images; Radiazione solare globale al suolo in Italia nel 1994 : valori medi mensili per 1.614 localita` italiane stimate a partire dalle immagini fornite dal satellite Meteosat

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cogliani, E; Mancini, M; Petrarca, S; Spinelli, F [ENEA, Centro Ricerche Casaccia, Rome (Italy). Dip. Energia

    1995-10-01

    The global solar radiation over Italy is estimated from Meteosat secondary images in the visible band. The stimation method relies on the fact that the cloud cover on a given area of the Earth`s surface statistically determines the amount of solar radiation falling on that area. Estimated values of the monthly average daily global radiation on a horizontal surface for the 1994 have been compared with values computed from data measured by the stations of the two Italian radiation networks: the Meteorological Service of the Italian Air Force and the National Agrometeorological Network (a total of 36 stations have been considered). The mean percentage difference between estimated and computed values over the year is 6 per cent. In the present report, the monthly maps of radiation over Italy and the estimated monthly average daily values for over 1600 sites (having more than 10,000 inhabitants) are given. In the yearly reports to be issued in the years to come, maps and mean values over the period starting with 1994 will be given as well.

  13. Development and evaluation of neural network models to estimate daily solar radiation at Córdoba, Argentina Desenvolvimento e avaliação de modelos de redes neurais para estimação da irradiação solar diária em Córdoba, Argentina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mónica Bocco

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this work was to develop neural network models of backpropagation type to estimate solar radiation based on extraterrestrial radiation data, daily temperature range, precipitation, cloudiness and relative sunshine duration. Data from Córdoba, Argentina, were used for development and validation. The behaviour and adjustment between values observed and estimates obtained by neural networks for different combinations of input were assessed. These estimations showed root mean square error between 3.15 and 3.88 MJ m-2 d-1 . The latter corresponds to the model that calculates radiation using only precipitation and daily temperature range. In all models, results show good adjustment to seasonal solar radiation. These results allow inferring the adequate performance and pertinence of this methodology to estimate complex phenomena, such as solar radiation.O objetivo deste trabalho foi desenvolver modelos de redes neuronais, do tipo retropropagação, para a estimação da irradiação solar, a partir de dados de irradiação solar extraterrestre, amplitude térmica, precipitação, nebulosidade e razão de insolação. O treinamento e a validação foram realizados com dados correspondentes a Córdoba, Argentina. O comportamento e ajuste entre os valores observados e os estimados pelas redes foram avaliados para diferentes combinações das variáveis de entrada, que apresentaram valores do erro quadrático médio entre 3,15 e 3,88 MJ m-2 d-1 . Este último valor corresponde ao modelo que calcula a irradiação somente utilizando precipitação e amplitude térmica diária. Os resultados exibem em todos os modelos um ajuste apropriado ao comportamento sazonal da irradiação solar e permitem concluir a pertinência e o adequado desempenho desse método para estimar fenômenos complexos como a irradiação solar.

  14. Prediction of Daily Global Solar Radiation by Daily Temperatures and Artificial Neural Networks in Different Climates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. I Saedi

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction Global solar radiation is the sum of direct, diffuse, and reflected solar radiation. Weather forecasts, agricultural practices, and solar equipment development are three major fields that need proper information about solar radiation. Furthermore, sun in regarded as a huge source of renewable and clean energy which can be used in numerous applications to get rid of environmental impacts of non-renewable fossil fuels. Therefore, easy and fast estimation of daily global solar radiation would play an effective role is these affairs. Materials and Methods This study aimed at predicting the daily global solar radiation by means of artificial neural network (ANN method, based on easy-to-gain weather data i.e. daily mean, minimum and maximum temperatures. Having a variety of climates with long-term valid weather data, Washington State, located at the northwestern part of USA was chosen for this purpose. It has a total number of 19 weather stations to cover all the State climates. First, a station with the largest number of valid historical weather data (Lind was chosen to develop, validate, and test different ANN models. Three training algorithms i.e. Levenberg – Marquardt (LM, Scaled Conjugate Gradient (SCG, and Bayesian regularization (BR were tested in one and two hidden layer networks each with up to 20 neurons to derive six best architectures. R, RMSE, MAPE, and scatter plots were considered to evaluate each network in all steps. In order to investigate the generalizability of the best six models, they were tested in other Washington State weather stations. The most accurate and general models was evaluated in an Iran sample weather station which was chosen to be Mashhad. Results and Discussion The variation of MSE for the three training functions in one hidden layer models for Lind station indicated that SCG converged weights and biases in shorter time than LM, and LM did that faster than BR. It means that SCG provided the fastest

  15. NEW MODEL FOR SOLAR RADIATION ESTIMATION FROM ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    NEW MODEL FOR SOLAR RADIATION ESTIMATION FROM MEASURED AIR TEMPERATURE AND ... Nigerian Journal of Technology ... Solar radiation measurement is not sufficient in Nigeria for various reasons such as maintenance and ...

  16. Estimation of daily albedo on Tottori sand surface

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gu, S.; Otsuki, K.; Kamichika, M.

    2001-01-01

    Daily albedos of a bare sand surface were measured with a solarimeter (Eko MS-62) between 23 August and 30 November in 1997 at Tottori sand dune, Japan. These quickly decreased on rainy days, and recovered during dry spells (days between rainfalls). A strong exponential relationship was found between daily albedos and the number of dry days. The daily albedos on dry days also showed a direct relationship with daily transmissivities in the range less than 0.55. Two simple models were developed to estimate daily albedos for dry spell days on bare Tottori sand surface using routine meteorological data. Daily albedos were calculated using these two models, and compared with the measured daily albedos. For Model #1, the daily albedos were successfully predicted only using the number of dry spell days; the correlation coefficient between the estimated and measured albedo was 0.73, and the standard error was 1.2%. For Model #2, the number of dry spell days and transmissivity were considered in order to calculate the daily albedo on dry spell days; the correlation coefficient was 0.85, and the standard error was 0.9%. Estimated albedos were in good agreement with measured albedos. (author)

  17. GIS Tools to Estimate Average Annual Daily Traffic

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-06-01

    This project presents five tools that were created for a geographical information system to estimate Annual Average Daily : Traffic using linear regression. Three of the tools can be used to prepare spatial data for linear regression. One tool can be...

  18. Empirical Models for the Estimation of Global Solar Radiation in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Empirical Models for the Estimation of Global Solar Radiation in Yola, Nigeria. ... and average daily wind speed (WS) for the interval of three years (2010 – 2012) measured using various instruments for Yola of recorded data collected from the Center for Atmospheric Research (CAR), Anyigba are presented and analyzed.

  19. A Model for Hourly Solar Radiation Data Generation from Daily Solar Radiation Data Using a Generalized Regression Artificial Neural Network

    OpenAIRE

    Khatib, Tamer; Elmenreich, Wilfried

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a model for predicting hourly solar radiation data using daily solar radiation averages. The proposed model is a generalized regression artificial neural network. This model has three inputs, namely, mean daily solar radiation, hour angle, and sunset hour angle. The output layer has one node which is mean hourly solar radiation. The training and development of the proposed model are done using MATLAB and 43800 records of hourly global solar radiation. The results show that...

  20. Daily global solar radiation modelling using multi-layer perceptron neural networks in semi-arid region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mawloud GUERMOUI

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Accurate estimation of Daily Global Solar Radiation (DGSR has been a major goal for solar energy application. However, solar radiation measurements are not a simple task for several reasons. In the cases where data are not available, it is very common the use of computational models to estimate the missing data, which are based mainly of the search for relationships between weather variables, such as temperature, humidity, sunshine duration, etc. In this respect, the present study focuses on the development of artificial neural network (ANN model for estimation of daily global solar radiation on horizontal surface in Ghardaia city (South Algeria. In this analysis back-propagation algorithm is applied. Daily mean air temperature, relative humidity and sunshine duration was used as climatic inputs parameters, while the daily global solar radiation (DGSR was the only output of the ANN. We have evaluated Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP models to estimate DGSR using three year of measurement (2005-2008. It was found that MLP-model based on sunshine duration and mean air temperature give accurate results in term of Mean Absolute Bias Error, Root Mean Square Error, Relative Square Error and Correlation Coefficient. The obtained values of these indicators are 0.67 MJ/m², 1.28 MJ/m², 6.12%and 98.18%, respectively which shows that MLP is highly qualified for DGSR estimation in semi-arid climates.

  1. Combining Radar and Daily Precipitation Data to Estimate Meaningful Sub-daily Precipitation Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pegram, G. G. S.; Bardossy, A.

    2016-12-01

    Short duration extreme rainfalls are important for design. The purpose of this presentation is not to improve the day by day estimation of precipitation, but to obtain reasonable statistics for the subdaily extremes at gauge locations. We are interested specifically in daily and sub-daily extreme values of precipitation at gauge locations. We do not employ the common procedure of using time series of control station to determine the missing data values in a target. We are interested in individual rare events, not sequences. The idea is to use radar to disaggregate daily totals to sub-daily amounts. In South Arica, an S-band radar operated relatively continuously at Bethlehem from 1998 to 2003, whose scan at 1.5 km above ground [CAPPI] overlapped a dense (10 km spacing) set of 45 pluviometers recording in the same 6-year period. Using this valuable set of data, we are only interested in rare extremes, therefore small to medium values of rainfall depth were neglected, leaving 12 days of ranked daily maxima in each set per year, whose sum typically comprised about 50% of each annual rainfall total. The method presented here uses radar for disaggregating daily gauge totals in subdaily intervals down to 15 minutes in order to extract the maxima of sub-hourly through to daily rainfall at each of 37 selected radar pixels [1 km square in plan] which contained one of the 45 pluviometers not masked out by the radar foot-print. The pluviometer data were aggregated to daily totals, to act as if they were daily read gauges; their only other task was to help in the cross-validation exercise. The extrema were obtained as quantiles by ordering the 12 daily maxima of each interval per year. The unusual and novel goal was not to obtain the reproduction of the precipitation matching in space and time, but to obtain frequency distributions of the gauge and radar extremes, by matching their ranks, which we found to be stable and meaningful in cross-validation tests. We provide and

  2. Determination of daily solar ultraviolet radiation using statistical models and artificial neural networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. J. Barbero

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available In this study, two different methodologies are used to develop two models for estimating daily solar UV radiation. The first is based on traditional statistical techniques whereas the second is based on artificial neural network methods. Both models use daily solar global broadband radiation as the only measured input. The statistical model is derived from a relationship between the daily UV and the global clearness indices but modulated by the relative optical air mass. The inputs to the neural network model were determined from a large number of radiometric and atmospheric parameters using the automatic relevance determination method, although only the daily solar global irradiation, daily global clearness index and relative optical air mass were shown to be the optimal input variables. Both statistical and neural network models were developed using data measured at Almería (Spain, a semiarid and coastal climate, and tested against data from Table Mountain (Golden, CO, USA, a mountainous and dry environment. Results show that the statistical model performs adequately in both sites for all weather conditions, especially when only snow-free days at Golden were considered (RMSE=4.6%, MBE= –0.1%. The neural network based model provides the best overall estimates in the site where it has been trained, but presents an inadequate performance for the Golden site when snow-covered days are included (RMSE=6.5%, MBE= –3.0%. This result confirms that the neural network model does not adequately respond on those ranges of the input parameters which were not used for its development.

  3. Estimating autotrophic respiration in streams using daily metabolism data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knowing the fraction of gross primary production (GPP) that is immediately respired by autotrophs and their closely associated heterotrophs (ARf) is necessary to understand the trophic base and carbon spiraling in streams. We show a means to estimate ARf from daily metabolism da...

  4. Estimating solar irradiation in the Arctic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Babar Bilal

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Solar radiation data plays an important role in pre-feasibility studies of solar electricity and/or thermal system installations. Measured solar radiation data is scarcely available due to the high cost of installing and maintaining high quality solar radiation sensors (pyranometers. Indirect measured radiation data received from geostationary satellites is unreliable at latitudes above 60 degrees due to the resulting flat viewing angle. In this paper, an empirical method to estimate solar radiation based on minimum climatological data is proposed. Eight sites in Norway are investigated, all of which lie above 60 N. The estimations by the model are compared to the ground measured values and a correlation coefficient of 0.88 was found while over all percentage error was −1.1%. The proposed models is 0.2% efficient on diurnal and 10.8% better in annual estimations than previous models.

  5. Generation of daily global solar irradiation with support vector machines for regression

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antonanzas-Torres, F.; Urraca, R.; Antonanzas, J.; Fernandez-Ceniceros, J.; Martinez-de-Pison, F.J.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • New methodology for estimation of daily solar irradiation with SVR. • Automatic procedure for training models and selecting meteorological features. • This methodology outperforms other well-known parametric and numeric techniques. - Abstract: Solar global irradiation is barely recorded in isolated rural areas around the world. Traditionally, solar resource estimation has been performed using parametric-empirical models based on the relationship of solar irradiation with other atmospheric and commonly measured variables, such as temperatures, rainfall, and sunshine duration, achieving a relatively high level of certainty. Considerable improvement in soft-computing techniques, which have been applied extensively in many research fields, has lead to improvements in solar global irradiation modeling, although most of these techniques lack spatial generalization. This new methodology proposes support vector machines for regression with optimized variable selection via genetic algorithms to generate non-locally dependent and accurate models. A case of study in Spain has demonstrated the value of this methodology. It achieved a striking reduction in the mean absolute error (MAE) – 41.4% and 19.9% – as compared to classic parametric models; Bristow & Campbell and Antonanzas-Torres et al., respectively

  6. SORCE Level 3 Total Solar Irradiance Daily Average V016

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) data set SOR3TSID contains the total solar irradiance (a.k.a solar constant) data collected by the Total Irradiance Monitor (TIM)...

  7. The problem of multicollinearity in horizontal solar radiation estimation models and a new model for Turkey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demirhan, Haydar

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Impacts of multicollinearity on solar radiation estimation models are discussed. • Accuracy of existing empirical models for Turkey is evaluated. • A new non-linear model for the estimation of average daily horizontal global solar radiation is proposed. • Estimation and prediction performance of the proposed and existing models are compared. - Abstract: Due to the considerable decrease in energy resources and increasing energy demand, solar energy is an appealing field of investment and research. There are various modelling strategies and particular models for the estimation of the amount of solar radiation reaching at a particular point over the Earth. In this article, global solar radiation estimation models are taken into account. To emphasize severity of multicollinearity problem in solar radiation estimation models, some of the models developed for Turkey are revisited. It is observed that these models have been identified as accurate under certain multicollinearity structures, and when the multicollinearity is eliminated, the accuracy of these models is controversial. Thus, a reliable model that does not suffer from multicollinearity and gives precise estimates of global solar radiation for the whole region of Turkey is necessary. A new nonlinear model for the estimation of average daily horizontal solar radiation is proposed making use of the genetic programming technique. There is no multicollinearity problem in the new model, and its estimation accuracy is better than the revisited models in terms of numerous statistical performance measures. According to the proposed model, temperature, precipitation, altitude, longitude, and monthly average daily extraterrestrial horizontal solar radiation have significant effect on the average daily global horizontal solar radiation. Relative humidity and soil temperature are not included in the model due to their high correlation with precipitation and temperature, respectively. While altitude has

  8. Estimating wheat and maize daily evapotranspiration using artificial neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abrishami, Nazanin; Sepaskhah, Ali Reza; Shahrokhnia, Mohammad Hossein

    2018-02-01

    In this research, artificial neural network (ANN) is used for estimating wheat and maize daily standard evapotranspiration. Ten ANN models with different structures were designed for each crop. Daily climatic data [maximum temperature (T max), minimum temperature (T min), average temperature (T ave), maximum relative humidity (RHmax), minimum relative humidity (RHmin), average relative humidity (RHave), wind speed (U 2), sunshine hours (n), net radiation (Rn)], leaf area index (LAI), and plant height (h) were used as inputs. For five structures of ten, the evapotranspiration (ETC) values calculated by ETC = ET0 × K C equation (ET0 from Penman-Monteith equation and K C from FAO-56, ANNC) were used as outputs, and for the other five structures, the ETC values measured by weighing lysimeter (ANNM) were used as outputs. In all structures, a feed forward multiple-layer network with one or two hidden layers and sigmoid transfer function and BR or LM training algorithm was used. Favorite network was selected based on various statistical criteria. The results showed the suitable capability and acceptable accuracy of ANNs, particularly those having two hidden layers in their structure in estimating the daily evapotranspiration. Best model for estimation of maize daily evapotranspiration is «M»ANN1 C (8-4-2-1), with T max, T min, RHmax, RHmin, U 2, n, LAI, and h as input data and LM training rule and its statistical parameters (NRMSE, d, and R2) are 0.178, 0.980, and 0.982, respectively. Best model for estimation of wheat daily evapotranspiration is «W»ANN5 C (5-2-3-1), with T max, T min, Rn, LAI, and h as input data and LM training rule, its statistical parameters (NRMSE, d, and R 2) are 0.108, 0.987, and 0.981 respectively. In addition, if the calculated ETC used as the output of the network for both wheat and maize, higher accurate estimation was obtained. Therefore, ANN is suitable method for estimating evapotranspiration of wheat and maize.

  9. Characteristics of seasonal variation and solar activity dependence of the geomagnetic solar quiet daily variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinbori, A.; Koyama, Y.; Nose, M.; Hori, T.

    2017-12-01

    Characteristics of seasonal variation and solar activity dependence of the X- and Y-components of the geomagnetic solar quiet (Sq) daily variation at Memanbetsu in mid-latitudes and Guam near the equator have been investigated using long-term geomagnetic field data with 1-h time resolution from 1957 to 2016. In this analysis, we defined the quiet day when the maximum value of the Kp index is less than 3 for that day. In this analysis, we used the monthly average of the adjusted daily F10.7 corresponding to geomagnetically quiet days. For identification of the monthly mean Sq variation in the X and Y components (Sq-X and Sq-Y), we first determined the baseline of the X and Y components from the average value from 22 to 2 h (LT: local time) for each quiet day. Next, we calculated a deviation from the baseline of the X- and Y-components of the geomagnetic field for each quiet day, and computed the monthly mean value of the deviation for each local time. As a result, Sq-X and Sq-Y shows a clear seasonal variation and solar activity dependence. The amplitude of seasonal variation increases significantly during high solar activities, and is proportional to the solar F10.7 index. The pattern of the seasonal variation is quite different between Sq-X and Sq-Y. The result of the correlation analysis between the solar F10.7 index and Sq-X and Sq-Y shows almost the linear relationship, but the slope and intercept of the linear fitted line varies as function of local time and month. This implies that the sensitivity of Sq-X and Sq-Y to the solar activity is different for different local times and seasons. The local time dependence of the offset value of Sq-Y at Guam and its seasonal variation suggest a magnetic field produced by inter-hemispheric field-aligned currents (FACs). From the sign of the offset value of Sq-Y, it is infer that the inter-hemispheric FACs flow from the summer to winter hemispheres in the dawn and dusk sectors and from the winter to summer hemispheres in

  10. Mathematical approach to the characterization of daily energy balance in autonomous photovoltaic solar systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Casares, F.J.; Lopez-Luque, R.; Posadillo, R.; Varo-Martinez, M.

    2014-01-01

    Sizing SAPV techniques try to assess the reliability of the system from the stochastic simulation of the energy balance. This stochastic simulation implies the generation, for an extended period of time, of the main state variables of the physical equations describing the energy balance of the system, that is, the energy delivered to the load and the energy stored in the batteries. Most of these methods consider the daily load as a constant over the year and control the variables indicating the reliability associated with the supply of power to the load. Furthermore, these methods rely on previous random models for generating solar radiation data and, since the approximations of the simulation methods are asymptotic, when more precise reliability indicators are required, the simulation period needs to be extended. This paper presents a mathematical methodology to address the daily energy balance without resorting to simulation methods. This method is directly based on daily solar radiation series modelled according to Markov stochastic processes and Aguiar matrices. The characterization presented is the base of a rational method in which reliability does not depend on the number of iterations but on the precision of the conditional probabilities included in Aguiar matrices. - Highlights: • A new SAPV sizing method is presented and validated. • This model relates the PV sizing methods to the autocorrelative Aguiar model. • This statistical approach is only limited by Markov matrixes. • It permits the study of PV systems with variable daily demands or solar tracking. • LLP for a SAPV can be estimated quickly and in an analytic and precise way

  11. Estimation of daily net radiation from synoptic meteorological data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, B.W.; Myung, E.J.; Kim, B.C.

    1991-01-01

    Five models for net radiation estimation reported by Linacre (1968), Berljand(1956), Nakayama et al. (1983), Chang (1970) and Doorenbos et al. (1977) were tested for the adaptability to Korea. A new model with effective longwave radiation term parameterized by air temperature, solar radiation and vapor pressure was formulated and tested for its accuracy. Above five models with original parameter values showed large absolute mean deviations ranging from 0.86 to 1.64 MJ/m 2 /day. The parameters of the above five models were reestimated by using net radiation and meteorological elements measured in Suwon, Korea

  12. Estimation of global solar radiation by means of sunshine duration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luis, Mazorra Aguiar; Felipe, Diaz Reyes [Electrical Engineering Dept., Las Palmas de Gran Canaria Univ. (U.L.P.G.C.), Campus Univ. Tafira (Spain); Pilar, Navarro Rivero [Canary Islands Technological Inst. (I.T.C.), Gran Canaria (Spain)

    2008-07-01

    This paper analyses the relationship between global solar irradiation and sunshine duration with different estimation models for the island of Gran Canaria (Spain). These parameters were taken from six measurement stations around the Island, and selected for their reliability and the long period of time they covered. All data used in this paper were handed over by the Canary Islands Technological Institute (I.T.C.). As a first approach, it was decided to study the Angstrom lineal model. In order to improve the knowledge on solar resources, a Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) was created from all daily data. TMY shows differences between southern and northern locations, where Trade Winds generate clouds during the summer months. TMY resumes a data bank much longer than a year in duration, generating the characteristics for a year series of each location, for both irradiation and sunshine duration. To create the TMY, weighted means have been used to smooth high or low values. At first, Angstrom lineal model has been used to estimate solar global irradiation from sunshine duration values, using TMY. But the lineal model didn't reproduce satisfactory results when used to obtain global solar radiation from all daily sunshine duration data. For this reason, different models based in both parameters were used. The parameters estimation of this model was achieved both from TMY daily and monthly series and from all daily data for every location. Because of the weather stability all over the year in the Island, most of the daily data are concentrated in a close range, occasioning a deviation in the lineal equations. To avoid this deviation it was proposed to consider a limit condition data, taking into account values out of the main cloud of data. Additionally, different models were proposed (quadratic, cubic, logarithmic and exponential) to make a regression from all daily data. The best results were obtained with the exponential model proposed in this paper. The

  13. Diffuse solar radiation estimation models for Turkey's big cities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ulgen, Koray; Hepbasli, Arif

    2009-01-01

    A reasonably accurate knowledge of the availability of the solar resource at any place is required by solar engineers, architects, agriculturists, and hydrologists in many applications of solar energy such as solar furnaces, concentrating collectors, and interior illumination of buildings. For this purpose, in the past, various empirical models (or correlations) have been developed in order to estimate the solar radiation around the world. This study deals with diffuse solar radiation estimation models along with statistical test methods used to statistically evaluate their performance. Models used to predict monthly average daily values of diffuse solar radiation are classified in four groups as follows: (i) From the diffuse fraction or cloudness index, function of the clearness index, (ii) From the diffuse fraction or cloudness index, function of the relative sunshine duration or sunshine fraction, (iii) From the diffuse coefficient, function of the clearness index, and (iv) From the diffuse coefficient, function of the relative sunshine duration or sunshine fraction. Empirical correlations are also developed to establish a relationship between the monthly average daily diffuse fraction or cloudness index (K d ) and monthly average daily diffuse coefficient (K dd ) with the monthly average daily clearness index (K T ) and monthly average daily sunshine fraction (S/S o ) for the three big cities by population in Turkey (Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir). Although the global solar radiation on a horizontal surface and sunshine duration has been measured by the Turkish State Meteorological Service (STMS) over all country since 1964, the diffuse solar radiation has not been measured. The eight new models for estimating the monthly average daily diffuse solar radiation on a horizontal surface in three big cites are validated, and thus, the most accurate model is selected for guiding future projects. The new models are then compared with the 32 models available in the

  14. Estimation of solar radiation energy of Ethiopia from sunshine data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Argaw, N. [Tampere Univ., Dep. of Civil Engineering, Tampere (Finland)

    1996-12-31

    Measurements of global solar radiation on a horizontal surface, for nine meteorological stations in Ethiopia, are compared with their corresponding values computed based on Angstroem relations. Regression coefficients are obtained and correlation equations are determined to predict the global solar radiation. The results shows that Angstroem relations are valid for Ethiopian locations, and the correlation equations can be used to predict the monthly mean daily global solar radiation in the locations considered in this study. This study also proves that the results made by ENEC et al, using the generalised Frere`s coefficients, is unsatisfactory for the prediction of monthly mean daily global solar radiation. On the other hand, the work of Dogniaux and Lemoine, using the regression coefficients a and b as a function of latitude and atmospheric turbidity and grouping large range latitudes to extend the application, can give better estimation. However, for more accurate estimation, several additional meteorological stations have to be evaluated and their regression coefficients have to be determined before grouping in to one relationship to express the variations of a and b under any conditions of equipment and location. (author) 1 fig., 11 tabs., 22 refs.

  15. Estimation of global daily irradiation in complex topography zones using digital elevation models and meteosat images: Comparison of the results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinez-Durban, M.; Zarzalejo, L.F.; Bosch, J.L.; Rosiek, S.; Polo, J.; Batlles, F.J.

    2009-01-01

    The knowledge of the solar irradiation in a certain place is fundamental for the suitable location of solar systems, both thermal and photovoltaic. On the local scale, the topography is the most important modulating factor of the solar irradiation on the surface. In this work the global daily irradiation is estimated concerning various sky conditions, in zones of complex topography. In order to estimate the global daily irradiation we use a methodology based on a Digital Terrain Model (DTM), on one hand making use of pyranometer measurements and on the other hand utilizing satellite images. We underline that DTM application employing pyranometer measurements produces better results than estimation using satellite images, though accuracy of the same order is obtained in both cases for Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Bias Error (MBE).

  16. Estimation of global daily irradiation in complex topography zones using digital elevation models and meteosat images: Comparison of the results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martinez-Durban, M. [Dpto. de Lenguajes y Computacion, Universidad de Almeria, 04120 Almeria (Spain); Zarzalejo, L.F.; Polo, J. [Dpto. de Energia, CIEMAT, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Bosch, J.L.; Rosiek, S.; Batlles, F.J. [Dpto. Fisica Aplicada, Universidad de Almeria, 04120 Almeria (Spain)

    2009-09-15

    The knowledge of the solar irradiation in a certain place is fundamental for the suitable location of solar systems, both thermal and photovoltaic. On the local scale, the topography is the most important modulating factor of the solar irradiation on the surface. In this work the global daily irradiation is estimated concerning various sky conditions, in zones of complex topography. In order to estimate the global daily irradiation we use a methodology based on a Digital Terrain Model (DTM), on one hand making use of pyranometer measurements and on the other hand utilizing satellite images. We underline that DTM application employing pyranometer measurements produces better results than estimation using satellite images, though accuracy of the same order is obtained in both cases for Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Bias Error (MBE). (author)

  17. Comparison of several databases of downward solar daily irradiation data at ocean surface with PIRATA measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trolliet, Mélodie; Wald, Lucien

    2017-04-01

    The solar radiation impinging at sea surface is an essential variable in climate system. There are several means to assess the daily irradiation at surface, such as pyranometers aboard ship or on buoys, meteorological re-analyses and satellite-derived databases. Among the latter, assessments made from the series of geostationary Meteosat satellites offer synoptic views of the tropical and equatorial Atlantic Ocean every 15 min with a spatial resolution of approximately 5 km. Such Meteosat-derived databases are fairly recent and the quality of the estimates of the daily irradiation must be established. Efforts have been made for the land masses and must be repeated for the Atlantic Ocean. The Prediction and Research Moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic (PIRATA) network of moorings in the Tropical Atlantic Ocean is considered as a reference for oceanographic data. It consists in 17 long-term Autonomous Temperature Line Acquisition System (ATLAS) buoys equipped with sensors to measure near-surface meteorological and subsurface oceanic parameters, including downward solar irradiation. Corrected downward solar daily irradiation from PIRATA were downloaded from the NOAA web site and were compared to several databases: CAMS RAD, HelioClim-1, HelioClim-3 v4 and HelioClim-3 v5. CAMS-RAD, the CAMS radiation service, combines products of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) on gaseous content and aerosols in the atmosphere together with cloud optical properties deduced every 15 min from Meteosat imagery to supply estimates of the solar irradiation. Part of this service is the McClear clear sky model that provides estimates of the solar irradiation that should be observed in cloud-free conditions. The second and third databases are HelioClim-1 and HelioClim-3 v4 that are derived from Meteosat images using the Heliosat-2 method and the ESRA clear sky model, based on the Linke turbidity factor. HelioClim-3 v5 is the fourth database and differs from v4 by the

  18. Forecast daily indices of solar activity, F10.7, using support vector regression method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang Cong; Liu Dandan; Wang Jingsong

    2009-01-01

    The 10.7 cm solar radio flux (F10.7), the value of the solar radio emission flux density at a wavelength of 10.7 cm, is a useful index of solar activity as a proxy for solar extreme ultraviolet radiation. It is meaningful and important to predict F10.7 values accurately for both long-term (months-years) and short-term (days) forecasting, which are often used as inputs in space weather models. This study applies a novel neural network technique, support vector regression (SVR), to forecasting daily values of F10.7. The aim of this study is to examine the feasibility of SVR in short-term F10.7 forecasting. The approach, based on SVR, reduces the dimension of feature space in the training process by using a kernel-based learning algorithm. Thus, the complexity of the calculation becomes lower and a small amount of training data will be sufficient. The time series of F10.7 from 2002 to 2006 are employed as the data sets. The performance of the approach is estimated by calculating the norm mean square error and mean absolute percentage error. It is shown that our approach can perform well by using fewer training data points than the traditional neural network. (research paper)

  19. Performance of Sayigh's universal formula in the estimation of global solar radiation in Ghana

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oduro Afriyie, K.

    1995-10-01

    The performance of Sayigh's universal formula for the estimation of global solar radiation is tested against that of Angstrom-Black model for 13 stations in Ghana, using monthly mean daily global solar radiation averaged over the years 1957-1981. Sayigh's model is found not to perform as credibility as the Angstrom-Black model in the estimation of monthly global solar radiation in Ghana. Of the 156 values of monthly global solar radiation estimated by Sayigh's model, 123 (or 78.8%) had discrepancies of more than 10% with the measured values. The corresponding value for the Angstrom-Black model was 7 (or 4.5%). (author). 5 refs

  20. A Comparison of Satellite Based, Modeled Derived Daily Solar Radiation Data with Observed Data for the Continental US

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Jeffrey W.; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Wilkens, Paul W.; Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.; Hoell, James M.

    2010-01-01

    Many applications of simulation models and related decision support tools for agriculture and natural resource management require daily meteorological data as inputs. Availability and quality of such data, however, often constrain research and decision support activities that require use of these tools. Daily solar radiation (SRAD) data are especially problematic because the instruments require electronic integrators, accurate sensors are expensive, and calibration standards are seldom available. The Prediction Of Worldwide Energy Resources (NASA/POWER; power.larc.nasa.gov) project at the NASA Langley Research Center estimates daily solar radiation based on data that are derived from satellite observations of outgoing visible radiances and atmospheric parameters based upon satellite observations and assimilation models. The solar data are available for a global 1 degree x 1 degree coordinate grid. SRAD can also be estimated based on attenuation of extraterrestrial radiation (Q0) using daily temperature and rainfall data to estimate the optical thickness of the atmosphere. This study compares daily solar radiation data from NASA/POWER (SRADNP) with instrument readings from 295 stations (SRADOB), as well as with values that were estimated with the WGENR solar generator. WGENR was used both with daily temperature and precipitation records from the stations reporting solar data and records from the NOAA Cooperative Observer Program (COOP), thus providing two additional sources of solar data, SRADWG and SRADCO. Values of SRADNP for different grid cells consistently showed higher correlations (typically 0.85 to 0.95) with SRADOB data than did SRADWG or SRADCO for sites within the corresponding cells. Mean values of SRADOB, SRADWG and SRADNP for sites within a grid cell usually were within 1 MJm-2d-1 of each other, but NASA/POWER values averaged 1.1 MJm-2d-1 lower than SRADOB. The magnitude of this bias was greater at lower latitudes and during summer months and may be at

  1. Daily sums of solar radiation during summer period in Felin near Lublin and their relationship with sushine duration and cloudiness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kossowski, J.; Łykowski, B.

    2007-01-01

    The paper presents the relationships between daily sums of global solar radiation and real sunshine duration and separately, mean for a day amount of total cloudiness (computed from three standard observation terms) within 11 May - 31 July period in Felin (Poland). This period is approximated to the insolation summer one and is characterized by a long day (at least 15.5) and slight differentiation in time. The relationships were obtained on the basis of mean decade data and a stretch of single days during five seasons (but not successive). They were described with two types of equation regressions: linear and curvilinear (a 2-degree polynomial). Additionally, the same relationships were determined regarding the days without and with precipitation during the examined summer periods. The analysis performed in relation to effectiveness of each of these equations application to estimate daily sums of global solar radiation (the relative and standard errors) showed that better results are obtained from the equations concerning relations of the solar radiation with sunshine duration than cloudiness. It also revealed that to describe both types of the relationships, a polynomial is more efficient than linear regression (particularly in the case of daily data examination). Moreover, it was stated that determination of these relationships for some specific days (eg. days without precipitation) is appropriate as it allows to estimate the daily sum of solar radiation with smaller errors [pl

  2. Evaluation of different methods to estimate daily reference evapotranspiration in ungauged basins in Southern Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribeiro Fontoura, Jessica; Allasia, Daniel; Herbstrith Froemming, Gabriel; Freitas Ferreira, Pedro; Tassi, Rutineia

    2016-04-01

    Evapotranspiration is a key process of hydrological cycle and a sole term that links land surface water balance and land surface energy balance. Due to the higher information requirements of the Penman-Monteith method and the existing data uncertainty, simplified empirical methods for calculating potential and actual evapotranspiration are widely used in hydrological models. This is especially important in Brazil, where the monitoring of meteorological data is precarious. In this study were compared different methods for estimating evapotranspiration for Rio Grande do Sul, the Southernmost State of Brazil, aiming to suggest alternatives to the recommended method (Penman-Monteith-FAO 56) for estimate daily reference evapotranspiration (ETo) when meteorological data is missing or not available. The input dataset included daily and hourly-observed data from conventional and automatic weather stations respectively maintained by the National Weather Institute of Brazil (INMET) from the period of 1 January 2007 to 31 January 2010. Dataset included maximum temperature (Tmax, °C), minimum temperature (Tmin, °C), mean relative humidity (%), wind speed at 2 m height (u2, m s-1), daily solar radiation (Rs, MJ m- 2) and atmospheric pressure (kPa) that were grouped at daily time-step. Was tested the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) Penman-Monteith method (PM) at its full form, against PM assuming missing several variables not normally available in Brazil in order to calculate daily reference ETo. Missing variables were estimated as suggested in FAO56 publication or from climatological means. Furthermore, PM was also compared against the following simplified empirical methods: Hargreaves-Samani, Priestley-Taylor, Mccloud, McGuiness-Bordne, Romanenko, Radiation-Temperature, Tanner-Pelton. The statistical analysis indicates that even if just Tmin and Tmax are available, it is better to use PM estimating missing variables from syntetic data than

  3. Global solar radiation estimation in Lavras region, Minas Gerais

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dantas, A.A.A.; Carvalho, L.G. de; Ferreira, E.

    2003-01-01

    The objective of this work was the determination of the ''a'' and '' b'' constants of the Angstrom linear model in order to estimate the global solar radiation in Lavras, MG. The work was carried out in the Climatological Station of Lavras (ECP/INMET/UFLA), at the Federal University of Lavras, from December 2001 to November 2002, through insolation daily data and global solar radiation daily records. The ''a'' and '' b'' constants, that express the atmospheric transmitance, were obtained by regression analysis of those data. The obtained equation, Qg/Qt = 0,23 + 0,49 presented a determination coefficient of 0,89. The results are smaller than those suggested by the recommendations that uses the local latitude. According to the results, its possible to indicate the values of 0,23 and 0,49 to be used as the ''a'' and '' b'' constants on the Angstrom equation to estimate the global solar radiation in Lavras, MG. (author) [pt

  4. Using the Nearest Neighbour method to substitute missing daily solar radiation data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bezuidenhout, C.N.

    2002-01-01

    Ground level solar radiation reflects the amount of energy that reaches the earth's surface and is utilised by people, animals and plants. Biological models often require such radiation records for long periods of time, however, a lack of radiation data is common to many countries. Consequently various methods were developed to estimate daily radiation from other meteorological measurements. These methods normally need site specific calibration, require a fixed amount of input variables and do not include uncertainties introduced by global climate change. In this paper an attempt was made to develop a station independent substitution method without sacrificing accuracy. Meteorological data from different climatic regions in South Africa were used to assess the suitability of the Nearest Neighbour (NN) method. This method is based on the re-occurrence of events similar to those in the past. Different statistical approaches were assessed to calibrate the distance equation. An attempt was made to find suitable weights, calibrated universally, for the distance equation that would still produce good estimates for individual stations. The universally calibrated NN method outperformed previously developed equations (locally calibrated) by as much as 20% and overcomes various shortcomings identified in these equations. More detailed analyses also confirmed that the NN approach generates more representative statistical distributions and estimates extreme instances of solar radiation more accurately. (author)

  5. Dose Estimation from Daily and Weekly Dosimetry Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ostrouchov, G.

    2001-11-16

    Statistical analyses of data from epidemiologic studies of workers exposed to radiation have been based on recorded annual radiation doses (yearly dose of record). It is usually assumed that the dose values are known exactly, although it is generally recognized that the data contain uncertainty due to measurement error and bias. In our previous work with weekly data, a probability distribution was used to describe an individual's dose during a specific period of time and statistical methods were developed for estimating it from weekly film dosimetry data. This study showed that the yearly dose of record systematically underestimates doses for Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) workers. This could result in biased estimates of dose-response coefficients and their standard errors. The results of this evaluation raise serious questions about the suitability of the yearly dose of record for direct use in low-dose studies of nuclear industry workers. Here, we extend our previous work to use full information in Pocket meter data and develop the Data Synthesis for Individual Dose Estimation (DSIDE) methodology. Although the DSIDE methodology in this study is developed in the context of daily and weekly data to produce a cumulative yearly dose estimate, in principle it is completely general and can be extended to other time period and measurement combinations. The new methodology takes into account the ''measurement error'' that is produced by the film and pocket-meter dosimetry systems, the biases introduced by policies that lead to recording left-censored doses as zeros, and other measurement and recording practices. The DSIDE method is applied to a sample of dose histories obtained from hard copy dosimetry records at ORNL for the years 1945 to 1955. First, the rigorous addition of daily pocket-meter information shows that the negative bias is generally more severe than was reported in our work based on weekly film data only, however, the

  6. Dose Estimation from Daily and Weekly Dosimetry Data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ostrouchov, G.

    2001-01-01

    Statistical analyses of data from epidemiologic studies of workers exposed to radiation have been based on recorded annual radiation doses (yearly dose of record). It is usually assumed that the dose values are known exactly, although it is generally recognized that the data contain uncertainty due to measurement error and bias. In our previous work with weekly data, a probability distribution was used to describe an individual's dose during a specific period of time and statistical methods were developed for estimating it from weekly film dosimetry data. This study showed that the yearly dose of record systematically underestimates doses for Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) workers. This could result in biased estimates of dose-response coefficients and their standard errors. The results of this evaluation raise serious questions about the suitability of the yearly dose of record for direct use in low-dose studies of nuclear industry workers. Here, we extend our previous work to use full information in Pocket meter data and develop the Data Synthesis for Individual Dose Estimation (DSIDE) methodology. Although the DSIDE methodology in this study is developed in the context of daily and weekly data to produce a cumulative yearly dose estimate, in principle it is completely general and can be extended to other time period and measurement combinations. The new methodology takes into account the ''measurement error'' that is produced by the film and pocket-meter dosimetry systems, the biases introduced by policies that lead to recording left-censored doses as zeros, and other measurement and recording practices. The DSIDE method is applied to a sample of dose histories obtained from hard copy dosimetry records at ORNL for the years 1945 to 1955. First, the rigorous addition of daily pocket-meter information shows that the negative bias is generally more severe than was reported in our work based on weekly film data only, however, the amount of bias also varies

  7. SORCE SIM Level 3 Solar Spectral Irradiance Daily Means V020

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The SORCE SIM Solar Spectral Irradiance (SSI) data product SOR3SIMD is constructed using measurements from the SIM instruments, which are combined into merged daily...

  8. SORCE SIM Level 3 Solar Spectral Irradiance Daily Means V022

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The SORCE SIM Solar Spectral Irradiance (SSI) data product SOR3SIMD is constructed using measurements from the SIM instruments, which are combined into merged daily...

  9. Response of noctilucent cloud brightness to daily solar variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalin, P.; Pertsev, N.; Perminov, V.; Dubietis, A.; Zadorozhny, A.; Zalcik, M.; McEachran, I.; McEwan, T.; Černis, K.; Grønne, J.; Taustrup, T.; Hansen, O.; Andersen, H.; Melnikov, D.; Manevich, A.; Romejko, V.; Lifatova, D.

    2018-04-01

    For the first time, long-term data sets of ground-based observations of noctilucent clouds (NLC) around the globe have been analyzed in order to investigate a response of NLC to solar UV irradiance variability on a day-to-day scale. NLC brightness has been considered versus variations of solar Lyman-alpha flux. We have found that day-to-day solar variability, whose effect is generally masked in the natural NLC variability, has a statistically significant effect when considering large statistics for more than ten years. Average increase in day-to-day solar Lyman-α flux results in average decrease in day-to-day NLC brightness that can be explained by robust physical mechanisms taking place in the summer mesosphere. Average time lags between variations of Lyman-α flux and NLC brightness are short (0-3 days), suggesting a dominant role of direct solar heating and of the dynamical mechanism compared to photodissociation of water vapor by solar Lyman-α flux. All found regularities are consistent between various ground-based NLC data sets collected at different locations around the globe and for various time intervals. Signatures of a 27-day periodicity seem to be present in the NLC brightness for individual summertime intervals; however, this oscillation cannot be unambiguously retrieved due to inevitable periods of tropospheric cloudiness.

  10. Cosmic Ray Daily Variation And SOLAR Activity On Anomalous Days

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mishra, Rajesh Kumar; Mishra, Rekha Agarwal

    2008-01-01

    A study is carried out on the long-term changes in the diurnal anisotropy of cosmic rays using the ground based Deep River neutron monitor data during significantly low amplitude anisotropic wave train events in cosmic ray intensity for the period 1981-94. It has been observed that the phase of the diurnal anisotropy for majority of the low amplitude anisotropic wave train events significantly shifts towards earlier hours as compared to the co-rotational direction. The long-term behaviour of the amplitude of the diurnal anisotropy can be explained in terms of the occurrence of low amplitude anisotropic wave train events. The occurrence of these events is dominant during solar activity minimum years. The amplitude of the diurnal anisotropy is well correlated with the solar cycle but the direction of the anisotropy is not correlated with the solar cycle and shows a systematic shift to earlier hours. (authors)

  11. Solar wind velocity and daily variation of cosmic rays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahluwalia, H.S.; Riker, J.F.

    1985-01-01

    Recently parameters applicable to the solar wind and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) have become much better defined. Superior quality of data bases that are now available, particularly for the post-1971 period, make it possible to believe the long-term trends in the data. These data are correlated with the secular changes observed in the diurnal variation parameters obtained from neutron monitor data at Deep River and underground muon telescope data at Embudo (30 MEW) and Socorro (82 MWE). The annual mean amplitudes appear to have large values during the epochs of high speed solar wind streams. Results are discussed

  12. Daily Discharge Estimation in Talar River Using Lazy Learning Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zahra Abdollahi

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: River discharge as one of the most important hydrology factors has a vital role in physical, ecological, social and economic processes. So, accurate and reliable prediction and estimation of river discharge have been widely considered by many researchers in different fields such as surface water management, design of hydraulic structures, flood control and ecological studies in spetialand temporal scale. Therefore, in last decades different techniques for short-term and long-term estimation of hourly, daily, monthly and annual discharge have been developed for many years. However, short-term estimation models are less sophisticated and more accurate.Various global and local algorithms have been widely used to estimate hydrologic variables. The current study effort to use Lazy Learning approach to evaluate the adequacy of input data in order to follow the variation of discharge and also simulate next-day discharge in Talar River in KasilianBasinwhere is located in north of Iran with an area of 66.75 km2. Lazy learning is a local linear modelling approach in which generalization beyond the training data is delayed until a query is made to the system, as opposed to in eager learning, where the system tries to generalize the training data before receiving queries Materials and Methods: The current study was conducted in Kasilian Basin, where is located in north of Iran with an area of 66.75 km2. The main river of this basin joins to Talar River near Valicbon village and then exit from the watershed. Hydrometric station located near Valicbon village is equipped with Parshall flume and Limnogragh which can record river discharge of about 20 cubic meters per second.In this study, daily data of discharge recorded in Valicbon station related to 2002 to 2012 was used to estimate the discharge of 19 September 2012. The mean annual discharge of considered river was also calculated by using available data about 0.441 cubic meters per second. To

  13. Solar Irradiance and Pan Evaporation Estimation from Meteorological Satellite Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming-Ren Syu

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge about spatial and temporal variations in surface global solar radiation (GSR and evaporative water loss from the ground are important issues to many researches and applications. In this study empirical relationships suitable for Taiwan were established for GSR retrieval from geostationary satellite images using the Heliosat method for the period from 2011 - 2013. The derived GSR data has been used to generate consecutive maps of 10-day averaged pan evaporation (Epan as the basis to produce regional ET estimation using a strategy that does not require remote sensed land surface temperatures (LST. The retrieved daily GSR and the derived 10-day averaged Epan were validated against pyranometer and class-A pan measurements at selected Central Weather Bureau (CWB stations spread across various climatic regions in Taiwan. Compared with the CWB observed data the overall relative mean bias deviations (MBD% and root mean square differences (RMSD% in daily solar irradiance retrieval were about 5 and 15%, respectively. Seasonally, the largest MBD% and RMSD% of retrieved daily solar irradiance occur in spring (9.5 and 21.3% on average, while the least MBD% (-0.3% on average and RMSD% (9.7% on average occur in autumn and winter, respectively. For 10-day averaged Epan estimation, the mean MBD% and RMSD% for stations located in the coastal plain areas were 0.1 and 16.9%, respectively. However, in mountainous areas the mean MBD% and RMSD% increased to 30.2 and 34.5%, respectively. This overestimation was due mainly to the large differences in surrounding micro-environments between the mountainous and plain areas.

  14. Estimating the horizontal diffuse solar radiation over the Central Anatolia Region of Turkey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aras, Haydar; Balli, Ozgur; Hepbasli, Arif

    2006-01-01

    The main objective of the present study is to develop new hybrid models to predict the monthly average daily diffuse solar radiation on a horizontal surface over Turkey's Central Anatolia Region (CAR), which covers the 12 provinces (Afyon, Ankara, Cankiri, Corum, Eskisehir, Kayseri, Kirsehir, Konya, Nevsehir, Nigde, Sivas and Yozgat), as an example. The models proposed by many investigators to estimate the diffuse solar radiation were reviewed. Although the global solar radiation and sunshine duration have been measured by the Turkish State Meteorological Service (DMI) over all the country since 1964, the diffuse solar radiation has not been measured. The twelve new hybrid models for estimating the monthly average daily diffuse solar radiation on a horizontal surface in the CAR were validated, and thus, the most accurate model was selected for guiding future projects

  15. Methods and strategy for modeling daily global solar radiation with measured meteorological data - A case study in Nanchang station, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Guofeng; Liu, Yaolin; Wang, Tiejun

    2007-01-01

    Solar radiation is a primary driver for many physical, chemical and biological processes on the earth's surface, and complete and accurate solar radiation data at a specific region are quite indispensable to the solar energy related researches. This study, with Nanchang station, China, as a case study, aimed to calibrate existing models and develop new models for estimating missing global solar radiation data using commonly measured meteorological data and to propose a strategy for selecting the optimal models under different situations of available meteorological data. Using daily global radiation, sunshine hours, temperature, total precipitation and dew point data covering the years from 1994 to 2005, we calibrated or developed and evaluated seven existing models and two new models. Validation criteria included intercept, slope, coefficient of determination, mean bias error and root mean square error. The best result (R 2 = 0.93) was derived from Chen model 2, which uses sunshine hours and temperature as predictors. The Bahel model, which only uses sunshine hours, was almost as good, explaining 92% of the solar radiation variance. Temperature based models (Bristow and Campbell, Allen, Hargreaves and Chen 1 models) provided less accurate results, of which the best one (R 2 = 0.69) is the Bristow and Campbell model. The temperature based models were improved by adding other variables (daily mean total precipitation and mean dew point). Two such models could explain 77% (Wu model 1) and 80% (Wu model 2) of the solar radiation variance. We, thus, propose a strategy for selecting an optimal method for calculating missing daily values of global solar radiation: (1) when sunshine hour and temperature data are available, use Chen model 2; (2) when only sunshine hour data are available, use Bahel model; (3) when temperature, total precipitation and dew point data are available but not sunshine hours, use Wu model 2; (4) when only temperature and total precipitation are

  16. Solar and lunar daily geomagnetic variations at Dourbes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Meyer, F.

    1980-01-01

    Spectral analysis of the Dourbes H component hourly data from the period 1960-1978 revealed the existence of a number of minor terms, in addition to the main solar and lunar peaks. The relative amplitudes of oscillations in the geomagnetic spectrum are unrelated with those predicted through lunar tide theory. The minor terms agree more closely with the 27-day amplitude modulation mechanism. A high frequency resolution power spectrum clearly shows the splitting of the solar diurnal and semi-diurnal line, and even of the lunar semi-diurnal line by the annual variation and its harmonics. The correlation between the amplitude of the M 2 wave and the mean sunspot number is of no significance. (author)

  17. The relationship between incoming solar radiation and daily air temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kpeglo, Daniel Kwasi

    2013-07-01

    Solar radiation is the ultimate source of energy for the planet. To predict the values of temperature and instant solar radiation when equipment are not readily available from obtained equations, a good knowledge and understanding of the disposition and distribution of solar radiation is a requirement for modelling earth’s weather and climate change variables. A pyranometer (CM3) in series with a PHYWE amplifier and a voltmeter were experimentally set-up and used to study the amount of solar radiation received at the Physics Department of the University of Ghana during the day. The temperature of the study area as well as the Relative Humidity was also recorded. Data was collected over a period of one month (from 2nd to 24th April, 2012). Days for which rain was recorded were ignored because rain could damage the pyranometer. The data obtained by the set-up were therefore used to compare with data obtained by a wireless weather station (Davis Vintage Pro). The data from these separate set-ups indicated that a perfect correlation existed between the solar radiation and temperature of the place. The data obtained by the experimental set-up was split into two separate sessions as morning and evening sessions. It was observed that the experimental set-up had a good correlation with that of the weather station on a particular day 11th April, 2012. The various Regression Coefficient (R"2) values for morning session were respectively R"2 = 0.96 and R"2 = 0.95 with their respective equations as I_W =136.22T_W - 40623 and I_p = 2.3198T_p - 678.14. The evening session also had good Regression Coefficient values of R"2 = 0.81 and R"2 = 0.97 with equations of 2.1098T_p - 625 and I_W = 161.31T_w - 4876.9. Similar analysis of the data from the separate set-ups gave a better correlation for that of the experimental set-up than that of the wireless station. The range of values of Regression Coefficient (R"2) for the experimental set-up was between 0.82 − 0.99 for the morning

  18. Effects in atmospheric electricity daily variation controlled by solar wind

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ptitsyna, N.G.; Tyasto, M.I.; Levitin, A.E.; Gromova, L.A.; Tuomi, T.; AN SSSR, Moscow

    1995-01-01

    An analysis of fair weather atmospheric electricity, one of the environmental factors which affects the biosphere, is conducted. A distinct difference in the diurnal variation of atmospheric electric field at Helsinki is found between disturbed and extremely quiet conditions in the magnetosphere in winter before midnight. The comparison with the numerical model of the ionospheric electric field based on the solar wind parameters reveals that the maximum contribution of the magnetospheric-ionospheric generator to atmospheric electric field is about 100-150 v/m which assumes values of about 30% of the surface field. 8 refs.; 2 figs

  19. Generation of daily solar irradiation by means of artificial neural net works

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Siqueira, Adalberto N.; Tiba, Chigueru; Fraidenraich, Naum [Departamento de Energia Nuclear, da Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Av. Prof. Luiz Freire, 1000 - CDU, CEP 50.740-540 Recife, Pernambuco (Brazil)

    2010-11-15

    The present study proposes the utilization of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) as an alternative for generating synthetic series of daily solar irradiation. The sequences were generated from the use of daily temporal series of a group of meteorological variables that were measured simultaneously. The data used were measured between the years of 1998 and 2006 in two temperate climate localities of Brazil, Ilha Solteira (Sao Paulo) and Pelotas (Rio Grande do Sul). The estimates were taken for the months of January, April, July and October, through two models which are distinguished regarding the use or nonuse of measured bright sunshine hours as an input variable. An evaluation of the performance of the 56 months of solar irradiation generated by way of ANN showed that by using the measured bright sunshine hours as an input variable (model 1), the RMSE obtained were less or equal to 23.2% being that of those, although 43 of those months presented RMSE less or equal to 12.3%. In the case of the model that did not use the measured bright sunshine hours but used a daylight length (model 2), RMSE were obtained that varied from 8.5% to 37.5%, although 38 of those months presented RMSE less or equal to 20.0%. A comparison of the monthly series for all of the years, achieved by means of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (to a confidence level of 99%), demonstrated that of the 16 series generated by ANN model only two, obtained by model 2 for the months of April and July in Pelotas, presented significant difference in relation to the distributions of the measured series and that all mean deviations obtained were inferior to 0.39 MJ/m{sup 2}. It was also verified that the two ANN models were able to reproduce the principal statistical characteristics of the frequency distributions of the measured series such as: mean, mode, asymmetry and Kurtosis. (author)

  20. Prediction of monthly mean daily global solar radiation using ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    a 4-layer MLFF network was developed and the average value of the mean absolute percentage error ... and sunshine hours to estimate the monthly mean .... work. The outputs of the layers are com- puted using the equations (1) and (2).

  1. Temperature based daily incoming solar radiation modeling based on gene expression programming, neuro-fuzzy and neural network computing techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landeras, G.; López, J. J.; Kisi, O.; Shiri, J.

    2012-04-01

    The correct observation/estimation of surface incoming solar radiation (RS) is very important for many agricultural, meteorological and hydrological related applications. While most weather stations are provided with sensors for air temperature detection, the presence of sensors necessary for the detection of solar radiation is not so habitual and the data quality provided by them is sometimes poor. In these cases it is necessary to estimate this variable. Temperature based modeling procedures are reported in this study for estimating daily incoming solar radiation by using Gene Expression Programming (GEP) for the first time, and other artificial intelligence models such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). Traditional temperature based solar radiation equations were also included in this study and compared with artificial intelligence based approaches. Root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) RMSE-based skill score (SSRMSE), MAE-based skill score (SSMAE) and r2 criterion of Nash and Sutcliffe criteria were used to assess the models' performances. An ANN (a four-input multilayer perceptron with ten neurons in the hidden layer) presented the best performance among the studied models (2.93 MJ m-2 d-1 of RMSE). A four-input ANFIS model revealed as an interesting alternative to ANNs (3.14 MJ m-2 d-1 of RMSE). Very limited number of studies has been done on estimation of solar radiation based on ANFIS, and the present one demonstrated the ability of ANFIS to model solar radiation based on temperatures and extraterrestrial radiation. By the way this study demonstrated, for the first time, the ability of GEP models to model solar radiation based on daily atmospheric variables. Despite the accuracy of GEP models was slightly lower than the ANFIS and ANN models the genetic programming models (i.e., GEP) are superior to other artificial intelligence models in giving a simple explicit equation for the

  2. Sensitivity of APSIM/ORYZA model due to estimation errors in solar radiation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandre Bryan Heinemann

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Crop models are ideally suited to quantify existing climatic risks. However, they require historic climate data as input. While daily temperature and rainfall data are often available, the lack of observed solar radiation (Rs data severely limits site-specific crop modelling. The objective of this study was to estimate Rs based on air temperature solar radiation models and to quantify the propagation of errors in simulated radiation on several APSIM/ORYZA crop model seasonal outputs, yield, biomass, leaf area (LAI and total accumulated solar radiation (SRA during the crop cycle. The accuracy of the 5 models for estimated daily solar radiation was similar, and it was not substantially different among sites. For water limited environments (no irrigation, crop model outputs yield, biomass and LAI was not sensitive for the uncertainties in radiation models studied here.

  3. Sensitivity of APSIM/ORYZA model due to estimation errors in solar radiation

    OpenAIRE

    Alexandre Bryan Heinemann; Pepijn A.J. van Oort; Diogo Simões Fernandes; Aline de Holanda Nunes Maia

    2012-01-01

    Crop models are ideally suited to quantify existing climatic risks. However, they require historic climate data as input. While daily temperature and rainfall data are often available, the lack of observed solar radiation (Rs) data severely limits site-specific crop modelling. The objective of this study was to estimate Rs based on air temperature solar radiation models and to quantify the propagation of errors in simulated radiation on several APSIM/ORYZA crop model seasonal outputs, yield, ...

  4. Estimating the Open Market Desk's Daily Reaction Function.

    OpenAIRE

    Feinman, Joshua N

    1993-01-01

    This paper presents the results of an empirical investigation into the proximate determinants of the Federal Reserve's daily open market operations. Using information available each morning at the Fed conference call, the author models the Open Market Desk's choice of both the quantity and the type of operation, using a friction model for the former and a multinomial logit framework for the latter. Different types of operations are shown to send different signals to the market about the under...

  5. Solar cycle 22 control on daily geomagnetic variation at Terra Nova Bay (Antarctica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Palangio

    1998-06-01

    Full Text Available Nine summer geomagnetic observatory data (1986-1995 from Terra Nova Bay Base, Antarctica (Lat.74.690S, Long. 164.120E, 80.040S magnetic latitude are used to investigate the behaviour of the daily variation of the geomagnetic field at polar latitude. The instrumentation includes a proton precession magnetometer for total intensity |F| digital recordings; DI magnetometers for absolute measuring of the angular elements D and I and a three axis flux-gate system for acquiring H,D Z time variation data. We find that the magnetic time variation amplitude follows the solar cycle evolution and that the ratio between minimum solar median and maximum solar median is between 2-3 for intensive elements (H and Z and 1.7 for declination(D. The solar cycle effect on geomagnetic daily variation elements amplitude in Antarctica, in comparison with previous studies, is then probably larger than expected. As a consequence, the electric current system that causes the daily magnetic field variation reveals a quite large solar cycle effect at Terra Nova Bay.

  6. Precise estimation of total solar radiation on tilted surface

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    rajeev

    rarely available required for precise sizing of energy systems. The total solar radiation at different orientation and slope is needed to calculate the efficiency of the installed solar energy systems. To calculate clearness index (Kt) used by Gueymard (2000) for estimating solar irradiation H, irradiation at the earth's surface has ...

  7. Estimating Daily Inflation Using Scanner Data: A Progress Report

    OpenAIRE

    Kota Watanabe; Tsutomu Watanabe

    2014-01-01

    We construct a Törnqvist daily price index using Japanese point of sale (POS) scanner data spanning from 1988 to 2013. We find the following. First, the POS based inflation rate tends to be about 0.5 percentage points lower than the CPI inflation rate, although the difference between the two varies over time. Second, the difference between the two measures is greatest from 1992 to 1994, when, following the burst of bubble economy in 1991, the POS inflation rate drops rapidly and turns negati...

  8. Assessing the potential of random forest method for estimating solar radiation using air pollution index

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Huaiwei; Gui, Dongwei; Yan, Baowei; Liu, Yi; Liao, Weihong; Zhu, Yan; Lu, Chengwei; Zhao, Na

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Models based on random forests for daily solar radiation estimation are proposed. • Three sites within different air pollution index conditions are considered. • Performance of random forests is better than that of empirical methodologies. • Special attention is given to the use of air pollution index. • The potential of air pollution index is assessed by random forest models. - Abstract: Simulations of solar radiation have become increasingly common in recent years because of the rapid global development and deployment of solar energy technologies. The effect of air pollution on solar radiation is well known. However, few studies have attempting to evaluate the potential of the air pollution index in estimating solar radiation. In this study, meteorological data, solar radiation, and air pollution index data from three sites having different air pollution index conditions are used to develop random forest models. We propose different random forest models with and without considering air pollution index data, and then compare their respective performance with that of empirical methodologies. In addition, a variable importance approach based on random forest is applied in order to assess input variables. The results show that the performance of random forest models with air pollution index data is better than that of the empirical methodologies, generating 9.1–17.0% lower values of root-mean-square error in a fitted period and 2.0–17.4% lower values of root-mean-square error in a predicted period. Both the comparative results of different random forest models and variance importance indicate that applying air pollution index data is improves estimation of solar radiation. Also, although the air pollution index values varied largely from season to season, the random forest models appear more robust performances in different seasons than different models. The findings can act as a guide in selecting used variables to estimate daily solar

  9. Retrospective forecast of ETAS model with daily parameters estimate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falcone, Giuseppe; Murru, Maura; Console, Rodolfo; Marzocchi, Warner; Zhuang, Jiancang

    2016-04-01

    We present a retrospective ETAS (Epidemic Type of Aftershock Sequence) model based on the daily updating of free parameters during the background, the learning and the test phase of a seismic sequence. The idea was born after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. The CSEP (Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability) Center in Japan provided an appropriate testing benchmark for the five 1-day submitted models. Of all the models, only one was able to successfully predict the number of events that really happened. This result was verified using both the real time and the revised catalogs. The main cause of the failure was in the underestimation of the forecasted events, due to model parameters maintained fixed during the test. Moreover, the absence in the learning catalog of an event similar to the magnitude of the mainshock (M9.0), which drastically changed the seismicity in the area, made the learning parameters not suitable to describe the real seismicity. As an example of this methodological development we show the evolution of the model parameters during the last two strong seismic sequences in Italy: the 2009 L'Aquila and the 2012 Reggio Emilia episodes. The achievement of the model with daily updated parameters is compared with that of same model where the parameters remain fixed during the test time.

  10. Lunar and solar daily variations of ionospheric electron content at Delhi

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhuyan, P.K.; Tyagi, T.R.

    1986-01-01

    Ionospheric electron content measurements obtained at Delhi during the period 1975-1980 have been analysed by the Chapman-Miller method to compute lunar and solar daily variations. The results show that the magnitude of the lunar harmonic components is about one-tenth that of the solar harmonic components. Significant seasonal and solar cycle variations were observed for both the lunar and the solar terms. The lunar semi-diurnal component, the most significant term, can be explained as due to the additional 'fountain' effect caused by the lunar semi-diurnal variation of the electric field at the equatorial region. The lunar semi-diurnal variations were found to have significant oceanic and ionospheric components. (author)

  11. Inter-comparison of different models for estimating clear sky solar global radiation for the Negev region of Israel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ianetz, Amiran; Lyubansky, Vera; Setter, Ilan; Kriheli, Boris; Evseev, Efim G.; Kudish, Avraham I.

    2007-01-01

    Solar global radiation is a function of solar altitude, site altitude, albedo, atmospheric transparency and cloudiness, whereas solar global radiation on a clear day is defined such that it is a function of all the abovementioned parameters except cloudiness. Consequently, analysis of the relative magnitudes of solar global radiation and solar global radiation on a clear day provides a platform for studying the influence of cloudiness on solar global radiation. The Iqbal filter for determining the day type has been utilized to calculate the monthly average clear day solar global radiation at three sites in the Negev region of Israel. An inter-comparison between four models for estimating clear sky solar global radiation at the three sites was made. The relative accuracy of the four models was determined by comparing the monthly average daily clear sky solar global radiation to that determined using the Iqbal filter. The analysis was performed on databases consisting of measurements made during the time interval of January 1991 to December 2004. The monthly average daily clear sky solar global radiation determined by the Berlynd model was found to give the best agreement with that determined using the Iqbal filter. The Berlynd model was then utilized to calculate a daily clear day index, K c , which is defined as the ratio of the daily solar global radiation to the daily clear day solar global radiation. It is suggested that this index be used as an indication of the degree of cloudiness. Linear regression analysis was performed on the individual monthly databases for each site to determine the correlation between the daily clear day index and the daily clearness index, K T

  12. Comparison of Artificial Neural Networks and GIS Based Solar Analysis for Solar Potential Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konakoǧlu, Berkant; Usta, Ziya; Cömert, Çetin; Gökalp, Ertan

    2016-04-01

    Nowadays, estimation of solar potential plays an important role in planning process for sustainable cities. The use of solar panels, which produces electricity directly from the sun, has become popular in accordance with developing technologies. Since the use of solar panels enables the users to decrease costs and increase yields, the use of solar panels will be more popular in the future. Production of electricity is not convenient for all circumstances. Shading effects, massive clouds and rainy weather are some factors that directly affect the production of electricity from solar energy. Hence, before the installation of solar panels, it is crucial to conduct spatial analysis and estimate the solar potential of the place that the solar panel will be installed. There are several approaches to determine the solar potential. Examination of the applications in the literature reveals that the applications conducted for determining the solar potential are divided into two main categories. Solar potential is estimated either by using artificial neural network approach in which statistical parameters such as the duration of sun shine, number of clear days, solar radiation etc. are used, or by spatial analysis conducted in GIS approaches in which spatial parameters such as, latitude, longitude, slope, aspect etc. are used. In the literature, there are several studies that use both approaches but the literature lacks of a study related to the comparison of these approaches. In this study, Karadeniz Technical University campus has been selected as study area. Monthly average values of the number of clear sky days, air temperature, atmospheric pressure, relative humidity, sunshine duration and solar radiation parameters obtained for the years between 2005 and 2015 will be used to perform artificial neural network analysis to estimate the solar potential of the study area. The solar potential will also be estimated by using GIS-based solar analysis modules. The results of

  13. Daily efficiency of flat-plate solar air collectors for grain drying

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ting, K.C.; Shove, G.C.

    1983-01-01

    Single cover flat-plate solar collectors incorporated into walls and roofs of farm buildings have been used to heat ambient air for low temperature grain drying systems. Large surface area and high airflow rate are common features of these collectors. The drying period may range from several days to several weeks. Therefore, a knowledge of the variations of the collectors' daily efficiencies with respect to their design parameters would be helpful in applying solar collectors to grain drying. The objective of this study was to develop a simpler means of direct calculation of a collector's daily efficiency based on its design parameters. Many factors, such as configuration of the collector, airflow rate, weather conditions, etc. will affect the performance of solar collectors. A large number of varied conditions need to be tested in order to investigate the effect of different parameters on the collector performance. To facilitate this investigation, a computer simulation model developed by Ting was used to calculate the daily efficiencies of collectors under different operating conditions. The computer model was verified by Morrison's experimental data. Based on the simulation results, a functional relationship was developed between the daily efficiencies of collectors and their design parameters.

  14. Long-term energy output estimation for photovoltaic energy systems using synthetic solar irradiation data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Celik, A.N.

    2003-01-01

    A general methodology is presented to estimate the monthly average daily energy output from photovoltaic energy systems. Energy output is estimated from synthetically generated solar radiation data. The synthetic solar radiation data are generated based on the cumulative frequency distribution of the daily clearness index, given as a function of the monthly clearness index. Two sets of synthetic solar irradiation data are generated: 3- and 4-day months. In the 3-day month, each month is represented by 3 days and in the 4-day month, by 4 days. The 3- and 4-day solar irradiation data are synthetically generated for each month and the corresponding energy outputs are calculated. A total of 8-year long measured hourly solar irradiation data, from five different locations in the world, is used to validate the new model. The monthly energy output values calculated from the synthetic solar irradiation data are compared to those calculated from the measured hour-by-hour data. It is shown that when the measured solar radiation data do not exist for a particular location or reduced data set is advantageous, the energy output from photovoltaic converters could be correctly calculated

  15. Estimation of solar radiation over Cambodia from long-term satellite data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Janjai, S.; Pankaew, P.; Laksanaboonsong, J. [Solar Energy Research Laboratory, Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Silpakorn University, Nakhon Pathom 73000 (Thailand); Kitichantaropas, P. [Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency, Ministry of Energy, 17 Rama 1 Road, Patumwan, Bangkok 10330 (Thailand)

    2011-04-15

    In this work, monthly average daily global solar irradiation over Cambodia was estimated from a long-term satellite data. A 14-year period (1995-2008) of visible channel data from GMS5, GOES9 and MTSAT-1R satellites were used to provide earth-atmospheric reflectivity. A satellite-based solar radiation model developed for a tropical environment was used to estimate surface solar radiation. The model relates the satellite-derived earth-atmospheric reflectivity to absorption and scattering coefficients of various atmospheric constituents. The absorption of solar radiation due to water vapour was calculated from precipitable water derived from ambient relative humidity and temperature. Ozone data from the TOMS and OMI satellite data were employed to compute the solar radiation absorption by ozone. The depletion of radiation due to aerosols was estimated from the visibility data. Five new solar radiation measuring stations were established at Cambodian cities, namely Siem Reap (13.87 N, 103.85 E), Kompong Thom (12.68 N, 104.88 E), Phnom Penh (11.55 N, 104.83 E), Sihanouke Ville (10.67 N, 103.63 E) and Kampot (10.70 N, 104.28 E). Global solar radiation measured at these stations was used to validate the model. The validation was also carried out by using solar radiation measured at four Thai meteorological stations. These stations are situated near the Cambodian border. Monthly average daily global irradiation from these stations was compared with that calculated from the model. The measured and calculated irradiation is in good agreement, with the root mean square difference of 6.3%, with respect to the mean values. After the validation, the model was used to calculate monthly average daily global solar irradiation over Cambodia. Based on this satellite-derived irradiation, solar radiation maps for Cambodia were generated. These maps show that solar radiation climate of this country is strongly influenced by the monsoons. A solar radiation database was also generated

  16. Daily intake estimation of phenolic compounds in the Spanish population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inma Navarro González

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Phenolic compounds are a large group of molecules present in plants with a diversity of chemical structures and biological activity. The objective of this study was to quantify the intake of phenolic compounds of the Spanish population. Material and Methods: The most consumed foods from vegetal origin in Spain were selected. These were picked up in the National Survey of Spanish Dietary Intake (ENIDE of 2011, edited by AESAN (Spanish Agency for Food Safety and Nutrition as a basis for quantifying the intake of phenolic compounds of Spaniards using the Phenol-Explorer database. Results: This database has allowed to estimate the average intake of polyphenols per day of Spaniards, which is 1365.1mg. Conclusions: The average intake of total polyphenols of Spaniards could have a protective effect against the mortality rate and exercise a preventive function on some chronic diseases along with other healthy lifestyle habits.

  17. The Multi-Layered Perceptrons Neural Networks for the Prediction of Daily Solar Radiation

    OpenAIRE

    Radouane Iqdour; Abdelouhab Zeroual

    2007-01-01

    The Multi-Layered Perceptron (MLP) Neural networks have been very successful in a number of signal processing applications. In this work we have studied the possibilities and the met difficulties in the application of the MLP neural networks for the prediction of daily solar radiation data. We have used the Polack-Ribière algorithm for training the neural networks. A comparison, in term of the statistical indicators, with a linear model most used in literature, is also perfo...

  18. An adaptive wavelet-network model for forecasting daily total solar-radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mellit, A.; Benghanem, M.; Kalogirou, S.A.

    2006-01-01

    The combination of wavelet theory and neural networks has lead to the development of wavelet networks. Wavelet-networks are feed-forward networks using wavelets as activation functions. Wavelet-networks have been used successfully in various engineering applications such as classification, identification and control problems. In this paper, the use of adaptive wavelet-network architecture in finding a suitable forecasting model for predicting the daily total solar-radiation is investigated. Total solar-radiation is considered as the most important parameter in the performance prediction of renewable energy systems, particularly in sizing photovoltaic (PV) power systems. For this purpose, daily total solar-radiation data have been recorded during the period extending from 1981 to 2001, by a meteorological station in Algeria. The wavelet-network model has been trained by using either the 19 years of data or one year of the data. In both cases the total solar radiation data corresponding to year 2001 was used for testing the model. The network was trained to accept and handle a number of unusual cases. Results indicate that the model predicts daily total solar-radiation values with a good accuracy of approximately 97% and the mean absolute percentage error is not more than 6%. In addition, the performance of the model was compared with different neural network structures and classical models. Training algorithms for wavelet-networks require smaller numbers of iterations when compared with other neural networks. The model can be used to fill missing data in weather databases. Additionally, the proposed model can be generalized and used in different locations and for other weather data, such as sunshine duration and ambient temperature. Finally, an application using the model for sizing a PV-power system is presented in order to confirm the validity of this model

  19. Estimation of daily evapotranspiration over Africa using MODIS/Terra and SEVIRI/MSG data

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Sun, Z

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available , daily ET is more meaningful and useful in applications. In this study, daily ET estimates are obtained by combining data from the MODIS sensor aboard the polar-orbiting Terra satellite and the SEVIRI sensor aboard the geostationary-orbiting MSG satellite...

  20. Evaluation of different models to estimate the global solar radiation on inclined surface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demain, C.; Journée, M.; Bertrand, C.

    2012-04-01

    Global and diffuse solar radiation intensities are, in general, measured on horizontal surfaces, whereas stationary solar conversion systems (both flat plate solar collector and solar photovoltaic) are mounted on inclined surface to maximize the amount of solar radiation incident on the collector surface. Consequently, the solar radiation incident measured on a tilted surface has to be determined by converting solar radiation from horizontal surface to tilted surface of interest. This study evaluates the performance of 14 models transposing 10 minutes, hourly and daily diffuse solar irradiation from horizontal to inclined surface. Solar radiation data from 8 months (April to November 2011) which include diverse atmospheric conditions and solar altitudes, measured on the roof of the radiation tower of the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium in Uccle (Longitude 4.35°, Latitude 50.79°) were used for validation purposes. The individual model performance is assessed by an inter-comparison between the calculated and measured solar global radiation on the south-oriented surface tilted at 50.79° using statistical methods. The relative performance of the different models under different sky conditions has been studied. Comparison of the statistical errors between the different radiation models in function of the clearness index shows that some models perform better under one type of sky condition. Putting together different models acting under different sky conditions can lead to a diminution of the statistical error between global measured solar radiation and global estimated solar radiation. As models described in this paper have been developed for hourly data inputs, statistical error indexes are minimum for hourly data and increase for 10 minutes and one day frequency data.

  1. Sunshine-based estimation of global solar radiation on horizontal surface at Lake Van region (Turkey)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duzen, Hacer; Aydin, Harun

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► The global solar radiation at Lake Van region is estimated. ► This study is unique for the Lake Van region. ► Solar radiation around Lake Van has the highest value at the east-southeast region. ► The annual average solar energy potential is obtained as 750–2458 kWh/m 2 . ► Results can be used to estimate evaporation. - Abstract: In this study several sunshine-based regression models have been evaluated to estimate monthly average daily global solar radiation on horizontal surface of Lake Van region in the Eastern Anatolia region in Turkey by using data obtained from seven different meteorological stations. These models are derived from Angström–Prescott linear regression model and its derivatives such as quadratic, cubic, logarithmic and exponential. The performance of this regression models were evaluated by comparing the calculated clearness index and the measured clearness index. Several statistical tests were used to control the validation and goodness of the regression models in terms of the coefficient of determination, mean percent error, mean absolute percent error, mean biased error, mean absolute biased error, root mean square error and t-statistic. The results of all the regression models are within acceptable limits according to the statistical tests. However, the best performances are obtained by cubic regression model for Bitlis, Gevaş, Hakkari, Muş stations and by quadratic regression model for Malazgirt, Tatvan and Van stations to predict global solar radiation. The spatial distributions of the monthly average daily global solar radiation around the Lake Van region were obtained with interpolation of calculated solar radiation data that acquired from best fit models of the stations. The annual average solar energy potential for Lake Van region is obtained between 750 kWh/m 2 and 2485 kWh/m 2 with annual average of 1610 kWh/m 2 .

  2. Estimation of global solar radiation on horizontal surfaces in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Sebaii, A.A.; Al-Ghamdi, A.A.; Al-Hazmi, F.S.; Faidah, Adel S.

    2009-01-01

    The measured data of global solar radiation on a horizontal surface, as well as the number of sunshine hours, mean daily ambient temperature, maximum and minimum ambient temperatures, relative humidity and amount of cloud cover, for Jeddah (latitude 21 deg. 42'37''N, longitude 39 deg. 11'12''E), Saudi Arabia for the period 1996-2006 are analyzed. The data are divided into two sets. The sub-data set 1 (1996-2004) are employed to develop empirical correlations between the monthly average of daily global solar radiation fraction (H/H 0 ) and various meteorological parameters. The nonlinear Angstroem type model developed by Sen and the trigonometric function model proposed by Bulut and Bueyuekalaca are also evaluated. New empirical constants for these two models have been obtained for Jeddah. The sub-data set 2 (2005, 2006) are then used to evaluate the derived correlations. Comparisons between measured and calculated values of H have been performed. It is indicated that, the Sen and Bulut and Bueyuekalaca models satisfactorily describe the horizontal global solar radiation for Jeddah. All the proposed correlations are found to be able to predict the annual average of daily global solar radiation with excellent accuracy. Therefore, the long term performance of solar energy devices can be estimated.

  3. Study of hourly and daily solar irradiation forecast using diagonal recurrent wavelet neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cao Jiacong; Lin Xingchun

    2008-01-01

    An accurate forecast of solar irradiation is required for various solar energy applications and environmental impact analyses in recent years. Comparatively, various irradiation forecast models based on artificial neural networks (ANN) perform much better in accuracy than many conventional prediction models. However, the forecast precision of most existing ANN based forecast models has not been satisfactory to researchers and engineers so far, and the generalization capability of these networks needs further improving. Combining the prominent dynamic properties of a recurrent neural network (RNN) with the enhanced ability of a wavelet neural network (WNN) in mapping nonlinear functions, a diagonal recurrent wavelet neural network (DRWNN) is newly established in this paper to perform fine forecasting of hourly and daily global solar irradiance. Some additional steps, e.g. applying historical information of cloud cover to sample data sets and the cloud cover from the weather forecast to network input, are adopted to help enhance the forecast precision. Besides, a specially scheduled two phase training algorithm is adopted. As examples, both hourly and daily irradiance forecasts are completed using sample data sets in Shanghai and Macau, and comparisons between irradiation models show that the DRWNN models are definitely more accurate

  4. A fuzzy regression with support vector machine approach to the estimation of horizontal global solar radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baser, Furkan; Demirhan, Haydar

    2017-01-01

    Accurate estimation of the amount of horizontal global solar radiation for a particular field is an important input for decision processes in solar radiation investments. In this article, we focus on the estimation of yearly mean daily horizontal global solar radiation by using an approach that utilizes fuzzy regression functions with support vector machine (FRF-SVM). This approach is not seriously affected by outlier observations and does not suffer from the over-fitting problem. To demonstrate the utility of the FRF-SVM approach in the estimation of horizontal global solar radiation, we conduct an empirical study over a dataset collected in Turkey and applied the FRF-SVM approach with several kernel functions. Then, we compare the estimation accuracy of the FRF-SVM approach to an adaptive neuro-fuzzy system and a coplot supported-genetic programming approach. We observe that the FRF-SVM approach with a Gaussian kernel function is not affected by both outliers and over-fitting problem and gives the most accurate estimates of horizontal global solar radiation among the applied approaches. Consequently, the use of hybrid fuzzy functions and support vector machine approaches is found beneficial in long-term forecasting of horizontal global solar radiation over a region with complex climatic and terrestrial characteristics. - Highlights: • A fuzzy regression functions with support vector machines approach is proposed. • The approach is robust against outlier observations and over-fitting problem. • Estimation accuracy of the model is superior to several existent alternatives. • A new solar radiation estimation model is proposed for the region of Turkey. • The model is useful under complex terrestrial and climatic conditions.

  5. Solar radiation estimation using sunshine hour and air pollution index in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, Na; Zeng, Xiaofan; Han, Shumin

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Aerosol can affect coefficients of A–P equation to estimate solar radiation. • Logarithmic model performed best, according to MBE, MABE, MPE, MAPE, RMSE and NSE. • Parameters of A–P model can be adjusted by API, geographical position and altitude. • A general equation to estimate solar radiation was established in China. - Abstract: Angström–Prescott (A–P) equation is the most widely used empirical relationship to estimate global solar radiation from sunshine hours. A new approach based on Air Pollution Index (API) data is introduced to adjust the coefficients of A–P equation in this study. Based on daily solar radiation, sunshine hours and API data at nine meteorological stations from 2001 to 2011 in China, linear, exponential and logarithmic models are developed and validated. When evaluated by performance indicators of mean bias error, mean absolute bias error, mean percentage error, mean absolute percentage error, root mean square error, and Nash–Sutcliffe Equation, it is demonstrated that logarithmic model performed better than the other models. Then empirical coefficients for three models are given for each station and the variations of these coefficients are affected by API, geographical position, and altitude. This indicates that aerosol can play an important role in estimation solar radiation from sunshine hours, especially in those highly polluted regions. Finally, a countrywide general equation is established based on the sunshine hour data, API and geographical parameters, which can be used to estimate the daily solar radiation in areas where the radiation data is not available

  6. Energy parameter estimation in solar powered wireless sensor networks

    KAUST Repository

    Mousa, Mustafa

    2014-02-24

    The operation of solar powered wireless sensor networks is associated with numerous challenges. One of the main challenges is the high variability of solar power input and battery capacity, due to factors such as weather, humidity, dust and temperature. In this article, we propose a set of tools that can be implemented onboard high power wireless sensor networks to estimate the battery condition and capacity as well as solar power availability. These parameters are very important to optimize sensing and communications operations and maximize the reliability of the complete system. Experimental results show that the performance of typical Lithium Ion batteries severely degrades outdoors in a matter of weeks or months, and that the availability of solar energy in an urban solar powered wireless sensor network is highly variable, which underlines the need for such power and energy estimation algorithms.

  7. Energy parameter estimation in solar powered wireless sensor networks

    KAUST Repository

    Mousa, Mustafa; Claudel, Christian G.

    2014-01-01

    The operation of solar powered wireless sensor networks is associated with numerous challenges. One of the main challenges is the high variability of solar power input and battery capacity, due to factors such as weather, humidity, dust and temperature. In this article, we propose a set of tools that can be implemented onboard high power wireless sensor networks to estimate the battery condition and capacity as well as solar power availability. These parameters are very important to optimize sensing and communications operations and maximize the reliability of the complete system. Experimental results show that the performance of typical Lithium Ion batteries severely degrades outdoors in a matter of weeks or months, and that the availability of solar energy in an urban solar powered wireless sensor network is highly variable, which underlines the need for such power and energy estimation algorithms.

  8. A simple formula for estimating global solar radiation in central arid deserts of Iran

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sabziparvar, Ali A.

    2008-01-01

    Over the last two decades, using simple radiation models has been an interesting task to estimate daily solar radiation in arid and semi-arid deserts such as those in Iran, where the number of solar observation sites is poor. In Iran, most of the models used so far, have been validated for a few specific locations based on short-term solar observations. In this work, three different radiation models (Sabbagh, Paltridge, Daneshyar) have been revised to predict the climatology of monthly average daily solar radiation on horizontal surfaces in various cities in central arid deserts of Iran. The modifications are made by the inclusion of altitude, monthly total number of dusty days and seasonal variation of Sun-Earth distance. A new height-dependent formula is proposed based on MBE, MABE, MPE and RMSE statistical analysis. It is shown that the revised Sabbagh method can be a good estimator for the prediction of global solar radiation in arid and semi-arid deserts with an average error of less than 2%, that performs a more accurate prediction than those in the previous studies. The required data for the suggested method are usually available in most meteorological sites. For the locations, where some of the input data are not reported, an alternative approach is presented. (author)

  9. Estimation of daily food usage factors for assessing radionuclide intakes in the US population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Y.Y.; Nelson, C.B.

    1986-01-01

    We have statistically analyzed data from the 1977-78 USDA Nationwide Food Consumption Survey to estimate the daily average food intakes by individuals in the general population and various subpopulations of the United States. These estimates are intended for use in assessing radionuclide intake by individuals through food consumption. We have also compared our results with those from other studies

  10. Prediction of daily UV-A from daily global solar irradiance using the Ktuv and Kt clearness index; Prediccion de valores diarios de radiacion solar UV-A (295-385 nm) utilizando los indices de transparencia K{sub t}uv y K{sub t} y tecnicas de resdes neuronales artificiales

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barbero, F. J.; Lopez, G.; Batlles, F. J.

    2004-07-01

    In this work we compare two methodologies in order to estimate daily UV-A from daily global solar irradiance measurements. The first one is based on standard statistical procedures for relating the daily clearness indices Ktuv and Kt and the relative air mass, whereas the second methodology is based on the novel techniques of artificial neuronal networks. In both cases, we employed data recorded at the radiometric station located at the University of Almeria between 1993 and 1996. Both models are checked against data for years not previously used. (Author)

  11. Development of a Greek solar map based on solar model estimations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kambezidis, H. D.; Psiloglou, B. E.; Kavadias, K. A.; Paliatsos, A. G.; Bartzokas, A.

    2016-05-01

    The realization of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) for power generation as the only environmentally friendly solution, moved solar systems to the forefront of the energy market in the last decade. The capacity of the solar power doubles almost every two years in many European countries, including Greece. This rise has brought the need for reliable predictions of meteorological data that can easily be utilized for proper RES-site allocation. The absence of solar measurements has, therefore, raised the demand for deploying a suitable model in order to create a solar map. The generation of a solar map for Greece, could provide solid foundations on the prediction of the energy production of a solar power plant that is installed in the area, by providing an estimation of the solar energy acquired at each longitude and latitude of the map. In the present work, the well-known Meteorological Radiation Model (MRM), a broadband solar radiation model, is engaged. This model utilizes common meteorological data, such as air temperature, relative humidity, barometric pressure and sunshine duration, in order to calculate solar radiation through MRM for areas where such data are not available. Hourly values of the above meteorological parameters are acquired from 39 meteorological stations, evenly dispersed around Greece; hourly values of solar radiation are calculated from MRM. Then, by using an integrated spatial interpolation method, a Greek solar energy map is generated, providing annual solar energy values all over Greece.

  12. Estimating daily climatologies for climate indices derived from climate model data and observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahlstein, Irina; Spirig, Christoph; Liniger, Mark A; Appenzeller, Christof

    2015-01-01

    Climate indices help to describe the past, present, and the future climate. They are usually closer related to possible impacts and are therefore more illustrative to users than simple climate means. Indices are often based on daily data series and thresholds. It is shown that the percentile-based thresholds are sensitive to the method of computation, and so are the climatological daily mean and the daily standard deviation, which are used for bias corrections of daily climate model data. Sample size issues of either the observed reference period or the model data lead to uncertainties in these estimations. A large number of past ensemble seasonal forecasts, called hindcasts, is used to explore these sampling uncertainties and to compare two different approaches. Based on a perfect model approach it is shown that a fitting approach can improve substantially the estimates of daily climatologies of percentile-based thresholds over land areas, as well as the mean and the variability. These improvements are relevant for bias removal in long-range forecasts or predictions of climate indices based on percentile thresholds. But also for climate change studies, the method shows potential for use. Key Points More robust estimates of daily climate characteristics Statistical fitting approach Based on a perfect model approach PMID:26042192

  13. Detecting photovoltaic solar panels using hyperspectral imagery and estimating solar power production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czirjak, Daniel

    2017-04-01

    Remote sensing platforms have consistently demonstrated the ability to detect, and in some cases identify, specific targets of interest, and photovoltaic solar panels are shown to have a unique spectral signature that is consistent across multiple manufacturers and construction methods. Solar panels are proven to be detectable in hyperspectral imagery using common statistical target detection methods such as the adaptive cosine estimator, and false alarms can be mitigated through the use of a spectral verification process that eliminates pixels that do not have the key spectral features of photovoltaic solar panel reflectance spectrum. The normalized solar panel index is described and is a key component in the false-alarm mitigation process. After spectral verification, these solar panel arrays are confirmed on openly available literal imagery and can be measured using numerous open-source algorithms and tools. The measurements allow for the assessment of overall solar power generation capacity using an equation that accounts for solar insolation, the area of solar panels, and the efficiency of the solar panels conversion of solar energy to power. Using a known location with readily available information, the methods outlined in this paper estimate the power generation capabilities within 6% of the rated power.

  14. Estimating hourly direct and diffuse solar radiation for the compilation of solar radiation distribution maps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ueyama, H.

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents a new method for estimating hourly direct and diffuse solar radiation. The essence of the method is the estimation of two important factors related to solar radiation, atmospheric transmittance and a dimensionless parameter, using empirical and physical equations and data from general meteorological observation stations. An equation for atmospheric transmittance of direct solar radiation and a dimensionless parameter representing diffuse solar radiation are developed. The equation is based on multiple regression analysis and uses three parameters as explanatory variates: calculated hourly extraterrestrial solar radiation on a horizontal plane, observed hourly sunshine duration and hourly precipitation as observed at a local meteorological observatory. The dimensionless parameter for estimating a diffuse solar radiation is then determined by linear least squares using observed hourly solar radiation at a local meteorological observatory. The estimated root mean square error (RMSE) of hourly direct and diffuse solar radiation is about 0.0-0.2 MJ¥m(-2)¥h(-1) in each mean period. The RMSE of the ten-day and monthly means of these quantities is about 0.0-0.2 MJ¥m(-2)¥h(-1), based on comparisons with AMeDAS station data, located at a distance of 6 km

  15. Estimating surface solar radiation from upper-air humidity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kun Yang [Telecommunications Advancement Organization of Japan, Tokyo (Japan); Koike, Toshio [University of Tokyo (Japan). Dept. of Civil Engineering

    2002-07-01

    A numerical model is developed to estimate global solar irradiance from upper-air humidity. In this model, solar radiation under clear skies is calculated through a simple model with radiation-damping processes under consideration. A sky clearness indicator is parameterized from relative humidity profiles within three atmospheric sublayers, and the indicator is used to connect global solar radiation under clear skies and that under cloudy skies. Model inter-comparisons at 18 sites in Japan suggest (1) global solar radiation strongly depends on the sky clearness indicator, (2) the new model generally gives better estimation to hourly-mean solar irradiance than the other three methods used in numerical weather predictions, and (3) the new model may be applied to estimate long-term solar radiation. In addition, a study at one site in the Tibetan Plateau shows vigorous convective activities in the region may cause some uncertainties to radiation estimations due to the small-scale and short life of convective systems. (author)

  16. Artificial neural network optimisation for monthly average daily global solar radiation prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alsina, Emanuel Federico; Bortolini, Marco; Gamberi, Mauro; Regattieri, Alberto

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Prediction of the monthly average daily global solar radiation over Italy. • Multi-location Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model: 45 locations considered. • Optimal ANN configuration with 7 input climatologic/geographical parameters. • Statistical indicators: MAPE, NRMSE, MPBE. - Abstract: The availability of reliable climatologic data is essential for multiple purposes in a wide set of anthropic activities and operative sectors. Frequently direct measures present spatial and temporal lacks so that predictive approaches become of interest. This paper focuses on the prediction of the Monthly Average Daily Global Solar Radiation (MADGSR) over Italy using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). Data from 45 locations compose the multi-location ANN training and testing sets. For each location, 13 input parameters are considered, including the geographical coordinates and the monthly values for the most frequently adopted climatologic parameters. A subset of 17 locations is used for ANN training, while the testing step is against data from the remaining 28 locations. Furthermore, the Automatic Relevance Determination method (ARD) is used to point out the most relevant input for the accurate MADGSR prediction. The ANN best configuration includes 7 parameters, only, i.e. Top of Atmosphere (TOA) radiation, day length, number of rainy days and average rainfall, latitude and altitude. The correlation performances, expressed through statistical indicators as the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), range between 1.67% and 4.25%, depending on the number and type of the chosen input, representing a good solution compared to the current standards.

  17. Estimating the real world daily usage and cost for exenatide twice daily and liraglutide in Germany, the Netherlands, and the UK based on volumes dispensed by pharmacies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    McDonell AL

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Amanda L McDonell,1 Urpo Kiiskinen,2 Danielle C Zammit,3 Robert W Kotchie,1 Per-Olof Thuresson,3 Claudia Nicolay,4 Thomas Haslam,1 Michiel Bruinsma,5 Anne-Jeanine Janszen-Van Oosterhout,6 Thorsten Otto41IMS Health, London, UK; 2Eli Lilly and Company, Helsinki, Finland; 3IMS Health, Basel, Switzerland; 4Eli Lilly and Company, Bad Homburg, Germany; 5IMS Health, Rotterdam, the Netherlands; 6Eli Lilly Nederland, Houten, the NetherlandsBackground: Glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1 receptor agonists are indicated for improvement of glycemic control in adults with type 2 diabetes. Cost is one aspect of treatment to be considered, in addition to clinical benefits, when selecting optimal therapy for a patient. The objective of this study was to estimate the average dose usage and real world daily cost of the GLP-1 receptor agonists, exenatide twice daily and liraglutide once daily, in Germany, the Netherlands, and the UK.Methods: Administrative databases were used to source the data from longitudinal records of dispensed prescriptions. Data were extracted from the IMS Longitudinal Prescription database which captures details of prescriptions dispensed in pharmacies. Information on the dispensed quantity of each product was used to estimate average daily usage per patient. Daily dose usage was multiplied by the public price per unit to estimate daily cost.Results: The dispensed volume in Germany corresponded to a mean dispensed daily dose of 16.81 µg for exenatide twice daily and 1.37 mg for liraglutide (mean daily cost €4.02 and €4.54, respectively. In the Netherlands, average dispensed daily doses of 17.07 µg and 1.49 mg were observed for exenatide twice daily and liraglutide (mean daily cost €3.05 and €3.97, respectively. In the UK, the mean dispensed volume corresponded to a daily usage of 20.49 µg for exenatide twice daily and 1.50 mg for liraglutide (mean daily cost £2.53 and £3.28, respectively.Conclusion: Estimates of average daily

  18. Estimation of monthly solar radiation distribution for solar energy system analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coskun, C.; Oktay, Z.; Dincer, I.

    2011-01-01

    The concept of probability density frequency, which is successfully used for analyses of wind speed and outdoor temperature distributions, is now modified and proposed for estimating solar radiation distributions for design and analysis of solar energy systems. In this study, global solar radiation distribution is comprehensively analyzed for photovoltaic (PV) panel and thermal collector systems. In this regard, a case study is conducted with actual global solar irradiation data of the last 15 years recorded by the Turkish State Meteorological Service. It is found that intensity of global solar irradiance greatly affects energy and exergy efficiencies and hence the performance of collectors. -- Research highlights: → The first study to apply global solar radiation distribution in solar system analyzes. → The first study showing global solar radiation distribution as a parameter of the solar irradiance intensity. → Time probability intensity frequency and probability power distribution do not have similar distribution patterns for each month. → There is no relation between the distribution of annual time lapse and solar energy with the intensity of solar irradiance.

  19. New horizontal global solar radiation estimation models for Turkey based on robust coplot supported genetic programming technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demirhan, Haydar; Kayhan Atilgan, Yasemin

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Precise horizontal global solar radiation estimation models are proposed for Turkey. • Genetic programming technique is used to construct the models. • Robust coplot analysis is applied to reduce the impact of outlier observations. • Better estimation and prediction properties are observed for the models. - Abstract: Renewable energy sources have been attracting more and more attention of researchers due to the diminishing and harmful nature of fossil energy sources. Because of the importance of solar energy as a renewable energy source, an accurate determination of significant covariates and their relationships with the amount of global solar radiation reaching the Earth is a critical research problem. There are numerous meteorological and terrestrial covariates that can be used in the analysis of horizontal global solar radiation. Some of these covariates are highly correlated with each other. It is possible to find a large variety of linear or non-linear models to explain the amount of horizontal global solar radiation. However, models that explain the amount of global solar radiation with the smallest set of covariates should be obtained. In this study, use of the robust coplot technique to reduce the number of covariates before going forward with advanced modelling techniques is considered. After reducing the dimensionality of model space, yearly and monthly mean daily horizontal global solar radiation estimation models for Turkey are built by using the genetic programming technique. It is observed that application of robust coplot analysis is helpful for building precise models that explain the amount of global solar radiation with the minimum number of covariates without suffering from outlier observations and the multicollinearity problem. Consequently, over a dataset of Turkey, precise yearly and monthly mean daily global solar radiation estimation models are introduced using the model spaces obtained by robust coplot technique and

  20. Estimation of the mechanical loading of the shoulder joint in daily conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Vries, W.H.K.

    2015-01-01

    The goal of this thesis is to assemble a method to estimate shoulder joint reaction forces, in daily conditions, based on long term collection of ambulatory measurable variables, to obtain the desired long term mechanical load profile of the shoulder. Chapter 2 examines, and discusses one of the

  1. An artificial neural network ensemble model for estimating global solar radiation from Meteosat satellite images

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linares-Rodriguez, Alvaro; Ruiz-Arias, José Antonio; Pozo-Vazquez, David; Tovar-Pescador, Joaquin

    2013-01-01

    An optimized artificial neural network ensemble model is built to estimate daily global solar radiation over large areas. The model uses clear-sky estimates and satellite images as input variables. Unlike most studies using satellite imagery based on visible channels, our model also exploits all information within infrared channels of the Meteosat 9 satellite. A genetic algorithm is used to optimize selection of model inputs, for which twelve are selected – eleven 3-km Meteosat 9 channels and one clear-sky term. The model is validated in Andalusia (Spain) from January 2008 through December 2008. Measured data from 83 stations across the region are used, 65 for training and 18 independent ones for testing the model. At the latter stations, the ensemble model yields an overall root mean square error of 6.74% and correlation coefficient of 99%; the generated estimates are relatively accurate and errors spatially uniform. The model yields reliable results even on cloudy days, improving on current models based on satellite imagery. - Highlights: • Daily solar radiation data are generated using an artificial neural network ensemble. • Eleven Meteosat channels observations and a clear sky term are used as model inputs. • Model exploits all information within infrared Meteosat channels. • Measured data for a year from 83 ground stations are used. • The proposed approach has better performance than existing models on daily basis

  2. Estimated daily intake and hazard quotients and indices of phthtalate diesters for young danish men

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kranich, Selma K; Frederiksen, Hanne; Andersson, Anna-Maria

    2014-01-01

    Because of wide exposure to phthalates, we investigated whether simultaneous exposure to several phthalates reached levels that might cause adverse antiandrogenic effects. Thirty three healthy young Danish men each delivered three 24-h urine samples during a three months period. The daily intakes...... of the sum of di-n-butyl and di-iso-butyl phthalate, di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate, di-iso-nonyl phthalate, and butylbenzyl phthalate were estimated based on urinary excretion of the metabolites. Based on a hazard quotient (HQ) of the individual phthalate (i.e., the ratio between the daily intake...

  3. Estimated daily salt intake in relation to blood pressure and blood lipids

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thuesen, Betina H; Toft, Ulla; Buhelt, Lone P

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Excessive salt intake causes increased blood pressure which is considered the leading risk for premature death. One major challenge when evaluating associations between daily salt intake and markers of non-communicable diseases is that a high daily salt intake correlates with obesity...... 3294 men and women aged 18-69 years from a general population based study in Copenhagen, Denmark. Estimated 24-hour sodium excretion was calculated by measurements of creatinine and sodium concentration in spot urine in combination with information of sex, age, height and weight. The relations...

  4. Determination of Semivariogram Models to Krige Hourly and Daily Solar Irradiance in Western Nebraska(.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merino, G. G.; Jones, D.; Stooksbury, D. E.; Hubbard, K. G.

    2001-06-01

    In this paper, linear and spherical semivariogram models were determined for use in kriging hourly and daily solar irradiation for every season of the year. The data used to generate the models were from 18 weather stations in western Nebraska. The models generated were tested using cross validation. The performance of the spherical and linear semivariogram models were compared with each other and also with the semivariogram models based on the best fit to the sample semivariogram of a particular day or hour. There were no significant differences in the performance of the three models. This result and the comparable errors produced by the models in kriging indicated that the linear and spherical models could be used to perform kriging at any hour and day of the year without deriving an individual semivariogram model for that day or hour.The seasonal mean absolute errors associated with kriging, within the network, when using the spherical or the linear semivariograms models were between 10% and 13% of the mean irradiation for daily irradiation and between 12% and 20% for hourly irradiation. These errors represent an improvement of 1%-2% when compared with replacing data at a given site with the data of the nearest weather station.

  5. Temperature-based estimation of global solar radiation using soft computing methodologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammadi, Kasra; Shamshirband, Shahaboddin; Danesh, Amir Seyed; Abdullah, Mohd Shahidan; Zamani, Mazdak

    2016-07-01

    Precise knowledge of solar radiation is indeed essential in different technological and scientific applications of solar energy. Temperature-based estimation of global solar radiation would be appealing owing to broad availability of measured air temperatures. In this study, the potentials of soft computing techniques are evaluated to estimate daily horizontal global solar radiation (DHGSR) from measured maximum, minimum, and average air temperatures ( T max, T min, and T avg) in an Iranian city. For this purpose, a comparative evaluation between three methodologies of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), radial basis function support vector regression (SVR-rbf), and polynomial basis function support vector regression (SVR-poly) is performed. Five combinations of T max, T min, and T avg are served as inputs to develop ANFIS, SVR-rbf, and SVR-poly models. The attained results show that all ANFIS, SVR-rbf, and SVR-poly models provide favorable accuracy. Based upon all techniques, the higher accuracies are achieved by models (5) using T max- T min and T max as inputs. According to the statistical results, SVR-rbf outperforms SVR-poly and ANFIS. For SVR-rbf (5), the mean absolute bias error, root mean square error, and correlation coefficient are 1.1931 MJ/m2, 2.0716 MJ/m2, and 0.9380, respectively. The survey results approve that SVR-rbf can be used efficiently to estimate DHGSR from air temperatures.

  6. Estimating Causal Effects of Local Air Pollution on Daily Deaths: Effect of Low Levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Joel; Bind, Marie-Abele; Koutrakis, Petros

    2017-01-01

    Although many time-series studies have established associations of daily pollution variations with daily deaths, there are fewer at low concentrations, or focused on locally generated pollution, which is becoming more important as regulations reduce regional transport. Causal modeling approaches are also lacking. We used causal modeling to estimate the impact of local air pollution on mortality at low concentrations. Using an instrumental variable approach, we developed an instrument for variations in local pollution concentrations that is unlikely to be correlated with other causes of death, and examined its association with daily deaths in the Boston, Massachusetts, area. We combined height of the planetary boundary layer and wind speed, which affect concentrations of local emissions, to develop the instrument for particulate matter ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5), black carbon (BC), or nitrogen dioxide (NO2) variations that were independent of year, month, and temperature. We also used Granger causality to assess whether omitted variable confounding existed. We estimated that an interquartile range increase in the instrument for local PM2.5 was associated with a 0.90% increase in daily deaths (95% CI: 0.25, 1.56). A similar result was found for BC, and a weaker association with NO2. The Granger test found no evidence of omitted variable confounding for the instrument. A separate test confirmed the instrument was not associated with mortality independent of pollution. Furthermore, the association remained when all days with PM2.5 concentrations > 30 μg/m3 were excluded from the analysis (0.84% increase in daily deaths; 95% CI: 0.19, 1.50). We conclude that there is a causal association of local air pollution with daily deaths at concentrations below U.S. EPA standards. The estimated attributable risk in Boston exceeded 1,800 deaths during the study period, indicating that important public health benefits can follow from further control efforts. Citation: Schwartz J, Bind MA

  7. Estimating Daily Reference Evapotranspiration in a Semi-Arid Region Using Remote Sensing Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peshawa M. Najmaddin

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Estimating daily evapotranspiration is challenging when ground observation data are not available or scarce. Remote sensing can be used to estimate the meteorological data necessary for calculating reference evapotranspiration ETₒ. Here, we assessed the accuracy of daily ETₒ estimates derived from remote sensing (ETₒ-RS compared with those derived from four ground-based stations (ETₒ-G in Kurdistan (Iraq over the period 2010–2014. Near surface air temperature, relative humidity and cloud cover fraction were derived from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder/Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AIRS/AMSU, and wind speed at 10 m height from MERRA (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application. Four methods were used to estimate ETₒ: Hargreaves–Samani (HS, Jensen–Haise (JH, McGuinness–Bordne (MB and the FAO Penman Monteith equation (PM. ETₒ-G (PM was adopted as the main benchmark. HS underestimated ETₒ by 2%–3% (R2 = 0.86 to 0.90; RMSE = 0.95 to 1.2 mm day−1 at different stations. JH and MB overestimated ETₒ by 8% to 40% (R2= 0.85 to 0.92; RMSE from 1.18 to 2.18 mm day−1. The annual average values of ETₒ estimated using RS data and ground-based data were similar to one another reflecting low bias in daily estimates. They ranged between 1153 and 1893 mm year−1 for ETₒ-G and between 1176 and 1859 mm year−1 for ETₒ-RS for the different stations. Our results suggest that ETₒ-RS (HS can yield accurate and unbiased ETₒ estimates for semi-arid regions which can be usefully employed in water resources management.

  8. Methods to estimate historical daily streamflow for ungaged stream locations in Minnesota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenz, David L.; Ziegeweid, Jeffrey R.

    2016-03-14

    Effective and responsible management of water resources relies on a thorough understanding of the quantity and quality of available water; however, streamgages cannot be installed at every location where streamflow information is needed. Therefore, methods for estimating streamflow at ungaged stream locations need to be developed. This report presents a statewide study to develop methods to estimate the structure of historical daily streamflow at ungaged stream locations in Minnesota. Historical daily mean streamflow at ungaged locations in Minnesota can be estimated by transferring streamflow data at streamgages to the ungaged location using the QPPQ method. The QPPQ method uses flow-duration curves at an index streamgage, relying on the assumption that exceedance probabilities are equivalent between the index streamgage and the ungaged location, and estimates the flow at the ungaged location using the estimated flow-duration curve. Flow-duration curves at ungaged locations can be estimated using recently developed regression equations that have been incorporated into StreamStats (http://streamstats.usgs.gov/), which is a U.S. Geological Survey Web-based interactive mapping tool that can be used to obtain streamflow statistics, drainage-basin characteristics, and other information for user-selected locations on streams.

  9. estimation of global solar radiation from sunshine hours for warri

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DJFLEX

    Multiple linear regression models were developed to estimate the monthly daily sunshine hours using four parameters during a period of eleven years (1997 to 2007) for Warri, Nigeria (Latitude of 5o. 34' 21.0''); the parameters include, Relative Humidity, Maximum and Minimum Temperature, Rainfall and Wind Speed.

  10. Estimation of global solar radiation from sunshine hours for Warri ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Multiple linear regression models were developed to estimate the monthly daily sunshine hours using four parameters during a period of eleven years (1997 to 2007) for Warri, Nigeria (Latitude of 5o 34' 21.0''); the parameters include, Relative Humidity, Maximum and Minimum Temperature, Rainfall and Wind Speed.

  11. Satellite Estimation of Daily Land Surface Water Vapor Pressure Deficit from AMSR- E

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, L. A.; Kimball, J. S.; McDonald, K. C.; Chan, S. K.; Njoku, E. G.; Oechel, W. C.

    2007-12-01

    Vapor pressure deficit (VPD) is a key variable for monitoring land surface water and energy exchanges, and estimating plant water stress. Multi-frequency day/night brightness temperatures from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer on EOS Aqua (AMSR-E) were used to estimate daily minimum and average near surface (2 m) air temperatures across a North American boreal-Arctic transect. A simple method for determining daily mean VPD (Pa) from AMSR-E air temperature retrievals was developed and validated against observations across a regional network of eight study sites ranging from boreal grassland and forest to arctic tundra. The method assumes that the dew point and minimum daily air temperatures tend to equilibrate in areas with low night time temperatures and relatively moist conditions. This assumption was tested by comparing the VPD algorithm results derived from site daily temperature observations against results derived from AMSR-E retrieved temperatures alone. An error analysis was conducted to determine the amount of error introduced in VPD estimates given known levels of error in satellite retrieved temperatures. Results indicate that the assumption generally holds for the high latitude study sites except for arid locations in mid-summer. VPD estimates using the method with AMSR-E retrieved temperatures compare favorably with site observations. The method can be applied to land surface temperature retrievals from any sensor with day and night surface or near-surface thermal measurements and shows potential for inferring near-surface wetness conditions where dense vegetation may hinder surface soil moisture retrievals from low-frequency microwave sensors. This work was carried out at The University of Montana, at San Diego State University, and at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under contract to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

  12. Prediction equation for estimating total daily energy requirements of special operations personnel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barringer, N D; Pasiakos, S M; McClung, H L; Crombie, A P; Margolis, L M

    2018-01-01

    Special Operations Forces (SOF) engage in a variety of military tasks with many producing high energy expenditures, leading to undesired energy deficits and loss of body mass. Therefore, the ability to accurately estimate daily energy requirements would be useful for accurate logistical planning. Generate a predictive equation estimating energy requirements of SOF. Retrospective analysis of data collected from SOF personnel engaged in 12 different SOF training scenarios. Energy expenditure and total body water were determined using the doubly-labeled water technique. Physical activity level was determined as daily energy expenditure divided by resting metabolic rate. Physical activity level was broken into quartiles (0 = mission prep, 1 = common warrior tasks, 2 = battle drills, 3 = specialized intense activity) to generate a physical activity factor (PAF). Regression analysis was used to construct two predictive equations (Model A; body mass and PAF, Model B; fat-free mass and PAF) estimating daily energy expenditures. Average measured energy expenditure during SOF training was 4468 (range: 3700 to 6300) Kcal·d- 1 . Regression analysis revealed that physical activity level ( r  = 0.91; P  plan appropriate feeding regimens to meet SOF nutritional requirements across their mission profile.

  13. Estimation of daily maximum and minimum air temperatures in urban landscapes using MODIS time series satellite data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoo, Cheolhee; Im, Jungho; Park, Seonyoung; Quackenbush, Lindi J.

    2018-03-01

    Urban air temperature is considered a significant variable for a variety of urban issues, and analyzing the spatial patterns of air temperature is important for urban planning and management. However, insufficient weather stations limit accurate spatial representation of temperature within a heterogeneous city. This study used a random forest machine learning approach to estimate daily maximum and minimum air temperatures (Tmax and Tmin) for two megacities with different climate characteristics: Los Angeles, USA, and Seoul, South Korea. This study used eight time-series land surface temperature (LST) data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), with seven auxiliary variables: elevation, solar radiation, normalized difference vegetation index, latitude, longitude, aspect, and the percentage of impervious area. We found different relationships between the eight time-series LSTs with Tmax/Tmin for the two cities, and designed eight schemes with different input LST variables. The schemes were evaluated using the coefficient of determination (R2) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) from 10-fold cross-validation. The best schemes produced R2 of 0.850 and 0.777 and RMSE of 1.7 °C and 1.2 °C for Tmax and Tmin in Los Angeles, and R2 of 0.728 and 0.767 and RMSE of 1.1 °C and 1.2 °C for Tmax and Tmin in Seoul, respectively. LSTs obtained the day before were crucial for estimating daily urban air temperature. Estimated air temperature patterns showed that Tmax was highly dependent on the geographic factors (e.g., sea breeze, mountains) of the two cities, while Tmin showed marginally distinct temperature differences between built-up and vegetated areas in the two cities.

  14. Estimation of solar radiation over Turkey using artificial neural network and satellite data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Senkal, Ozan; Kuleli, Tuncay

    2009-01-01

    This study introduces artificial neural networks (ANNs) for the estimation of solar radiation in Turkey (26-45 E and 36-42 N). Resilient propagation (RP), Scale conjugate gradient (SCG) learning algorithms and logistic sigmoid transfer function were used in the network. In order to train the neural network, meteorological data for the period from August 1997 to December 1997 for 12 cities (Antalya, Artvin, Edirne, Kayseri, Kuetahya, Van, Adana, Ankara, Istanbul, Samsun, Izmir, Diyarbakir) spread over Turkey were used as training (nine stations) and testing (three stations) data. Meteorological and geographical data (latitude, longitude, altitude, month, mean diffuse radiation and mean beam radiation) are used in the input layer of the network. Solar radiation is the output. However, solar radiation has been estimated as monthly mean daily sum by using Meteosat-6 satellite C3 D data in the visible range over 12 cities in Turkey. Digital counts of satellite data were converted into radiances and these are used to calculate the albedos. Using the albedo, the cloud cover index of each pixel was constructed. Diffuse and direct component of horizontal irradiation were calculated as a function of optical air mass, turbidity factor and Rayleigh optical thickness for clear-sky. Using the relation between clear-sky index and cloud cover index, the solar irradiance for any pixel is calculated for Physical method. RMS between the estimated and ground values for monthly mean daily sum with ANN and Physical method values have been found as 2.32 MJ m -2 (54 W/m 2 ) and 2.75 MJ m -2 (64 W/m 2 ) (training cities), 3.94 MJ m -2 (91 W/m 2 ) and 5.37 MJ m -2 (125 W/m 2 ) (testing cities), respectively

  15. Estimation of clear sky hourly global solar radiation in Iraq

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Al-Jumaily, Kais J.; Al-Zuhairi, Munya F.; Mahdi, Zahraa S. [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, College of Science, Al-Mustansiriyah University, Baghdad (Iraq)

    2012-07-01

    The availability of hourly solar radiation data is very important for applications utilizing solar energy and for climate and environmental aspects. The aim of this work is to use a simple model for estimating hourly global solar radiation under clear sky condition in Iraq. Calculations were compared with measurements obtained from local station in Baghdad city and from Meteosat satellite data for different locations in Iraq. The statistical test methods of the mean bias error (MBE), root mean square error (RMSE) and t-test were used to evaluate the performance of the model. Results indicated that a fairly good agreement exists between calculated and measured values for all locations in Iraq. Since the model is independent of any meteorological variable, it would be of a practical use for rural areas where no meteorological data are available.

  16. Summary of daily observational results of solar phenomena, cosmic ray, geomagnetic variation, ionosphere, radio wave propagation and airglow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1976-01-01

    The diagrams in this section of the publication illustrate the summary of daily observational results of solar phenomena, cosmic ray, geomagnetic variation, ionosphere, radio wave propagation and airglow observed in Japan. For convenience, the observational results are arranged by the solar rotation number. The aim of this illustration is to disseminate an outline of daily events observed in Japan for the benefit of active research workers who plan to make detailed study of the specific solar and terrestrial events. Therefore, the illustrations do not show all observational results in Japan but only representative ones at some key stations in Japan. They will suffice for the present purpose. The method of illustration shown in the instruction on the next page is still a preliminary one, and it is subject to change resulting from the kind advice of the users of this part of the publication. We welcome any advice for making the data arrangement and expression better and more convenient. (auth.)

  17. A comparison of methods for calculating population exposure estimates of daily weather for health research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dear Keith BG

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background To explain the possible effects of exposure to weather conditions on population health outcomes, weather data need to be calculated at a level in space and time that is appropriate for the health data. There are various ways of estimating exposure values from raw data collected at weather stations but the rationale for using one technique rather than another; the significance of the difference in the values obtained; and the effect these have on a research question are factors often not explicitly considered. In this study we compare different techniques for allocating weather data observations to small geographical areas and different options for weighting averages of these observations when calculating estimates of daily precipitation and temperature for Australian Postal Areas. Options that weight observations based on distance from population centroids and population size are more computationally intensive but give estimates that conceptually are more closely related to the experience of the population. Results Options based on values derived from sites internal to postal areas, or from nearest neighbour sites – that is, using proximity polygons around weather stations intersected with postal areas – tended to include fewer stations' observations in their estimates, and missing values were common. Options based on observations from stations within 50 kilometres radius of centroids and weighting of data by distance from centroids gave more complete estimates. Using the geographic centroid of the postal area gave estimates that differed slightly from the population weighted centroids and the population weighted average of sub-unit estimates. Conclusion To calculate daily weather exposure values for analysis of health outcome data for small areas, the use of data from weather stations internal to the area only, or from neighbouring weather stations (allocated by the use of proximity polygons, is too limited. The most

  18. Hour-Glass Neural Network Based Daily Money Flow Estimation for Automatic Teller Machines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karungaru, Stephen; Akashi, Takuya; Nakano, Miyoko; Fukumi, Minoru

    Monetary transactions using Automated Teller Machines (ATMs) have become a normal part of our daily lives. At ATMs, one can withdraw, send or debit money and even update passbooks among many other possible functions. ATMs are turning the banking sector into a ubiquitous service. However, while the advantages for the ATM users (financial institution customers) are many, the financial institution side faces an uphill task in management and maintaining the cash flow in the ATMs. On one hand, too much money in a rarely used ATM is wasteful, while on the other, insufficient amounts would adversely affect the customers and may result in a lost business opportunity for the financial institution. Therefore, in this paper, we propose a daily cash flow estimation system using neural networks that enables better daily forecasting of the money required at the ATMs. The neural network used in this work is a five layered hour glass shaped structure that achieves fast learning, even for the time series data for which seasonality and trend feature extraction is difficult. Feature extraction is carried out using the Akamatsu Integral and Differential transforms. This work achieves an average estimation accuracy of 92.6%.

  19. Sequential estimation of surface water mass changes from daily satellite gravimetry data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramillien, G. L.; Frappart, F.; Gratton, S.; Vasseur, X.

    2015-03-01

    We propose a recursive Kalman filtering approach to map regional spatio-temporal variations of terrestrial water mass over large continental areas, such as South America. Instead of correcting hydrology model outputs by the GRACE observations using a Kalman filter estimation strategy, regional 2-by-2 degree water mass solutions are constructed by integration of daily potential differences deduced from GRACE K-band range rate (KBRR) measurements. Recovery of regional water mass anomaly averages obtained by accumulation of information of daily noise-free simulated GRACE data shows that convergence is relatively fast and yields accurate solutions. In the case of cumulating real GRACE KBRR data contaminated by observational noise, the sequential method of step-by-step integration provides estimates of water mass variation for the period 2004-2011 by considering a set of suitable a priori error uncertainty parameters to stabilize the inversion. Spatial and temporal averages of the Kalman filter solutions over river basin surfaces are consistent with the ones computed using global monthly/10-day GRACE solutions from official providers CSR, GFZ and JPL. They are also highly correlated to in situ records of river discharges (70-95 %), especially for the Obidos station where the total outflow of the Amazon River is measured. The sparse daily coverage of the GRACE satellite tracks limits the time resolution of the regional Kalman filter solutions, and thus the detection of short-term hydrological events.

  20. Estimating Daily Evapotranspiration Based on A Model of Evapotranspiration Fraction (EF) for Mixed Pixels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xin, X.; Li, F.; Peng, Z.; Qinhuo, L.

    2017-12-01

    Land surface heterogeneities significantly affect the reliability and accuracy of remotely sensed evapotranspiration (ET), and it gets worse for lower resolution data. At the same time, temporal scale extrapolation of the instantaneous latent heat flux (LE) at satellite overpass time to daily ET are crucial for applications of such remote sensing product. The purpose of this paper is to propose a simple but efficient model for estimating daytime evapotranspiration considering heterogeneity of mixed pixels. In order to do so, an equation to calculate evapotranspiration fraction (EF) of mixed pixels was derived based on two key assumptions. Assumption 1: the available energy (AE) of each sub-pixel equals approximately to that of any other sub-pixels in the same mixed pixel within acceptable margin of bias, and as same as the AE of the mixed pixel. It's only for a simpification of the equation, and its uncertainties and resulted errors in estimated ET are very small. Assumption 2: EF of each sub-pixel equals to the EF of the nearest pure pixel(s) of same land cover type. This equation is supposed to be capable of correcting the spatial scale error of the mixed pixels EF and can be used to calculated daily ET with daily AE data.The model was applied to an artificial oasis in the midstream of Heihe River. HJ-1B satellite data were used to estimate the lumped fluxes at the scale of 300 m after resampling the 30-m resolution datasets to 300 m resolution, which was used to carry on the key step of the model. The results before and after correction were compare to each other and validated using site data of eddy-correlation systems. Results indicated that the new model is capable of improving accuracy of daily ET estimation relative to the lumped method. Validations at 12 sites of eddy-correlation systems for 9 days of HJ-1B overpass showed that the R² increased to 0.82 from 0.62; the RMSE decreased to 1.60 MJ/m² from 2.47MJ/m²; the MBE decreased from 1.92 MJ/m² to 1

  1. Inconing solar radiation estimates at terrestrial surface using meteorological satellite

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arai, N.; Almeida, F.C. de.

    1982-11-01

    By using the digital images of the visible channel of the GOES-5 meteorological satellite, and a simple radiative transfer model of the earth's atmosphere, the incoming solar radiation reaching ground is estimated. A model incorporating the effects of Rayleigh scattering and water vapor absorption, the latter parameterized using the surface dew point temperature value, is used. Comparisons with pyranometer observations, and parameterization versus radiosonde water vapor absorption calculation are presented. (Author) [pt

  2. A comparative study of satellite estimation for solar insolation in Albania with ground measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitrushi, Driada; Berberi, Pëllumb; Muda, Valbona; Buzra, Urim; Bërdufi, Irma; Topçiu, Daniela

    2016-01-01

    The main objective of this study is to compare data provided by Database of NASA with available ground data for regions covered by national meteorological net NASA estimates that their measurements of average daily solar radiation have a root-mean-square deviation RMSD error of 35 W/m"2 (roughly 20% inaccuracy). Unfortunately valid data from meteorological stations for regions of interest are quite rare in Albania. In these cases, use of Solar Radiation Database of NASA would be a satisfactory solution for different case studies. Using a statistical method allows to determine most probable margins between to sources of data. Comparison of mean insulation data provided by NASA with ground data of mean insulation provided by meteorological stations show that ground data for mean insolation results, in all cases, to be underestimated compared with data provided by Database of NASA. Converting factor is 1.149.

  3. Solar resources estimation combining digital terrain models and satellite images techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bosch, J.L.; Batlles, F.J. [Universidad de Almeria, Departamento de Fisica Aplicada, Ctra. Sacramento s/n, 04120-Almeria (Spain); Zarzalejo, L.F. [CIEMAT, Departamento de Energia, Madrid (Spain); Lopez, G. [EPS-Universidad de Huelva, Departamento de Ingenieria Electrica y Termica, Huelva (Spain)

    2010-12-15

    One of the most important steps to make use of any renewable energy is to perform an accurate estimation of the resource that has to be exploited. In the designing process of both active and passive solar energy systems, radiation data is required for the site, with proper spatial resolution. Generally, a radiometric stations network is used in this evaluation, but when they are too dispersed or not available for the study area, satellite images can be utilized as indirect solar radiation measurements. Although satellite images cover wide areas with a good acquisition frequency they usually have a poor spatial resolution limited by the size of the image pixel, and irradiation must be interpolated to evaluate solar irradiation at a sub-pixel scale. When pixels are located in flat and homogeneous areas, correlation of solar irradiation is relatively high, and classic interpolation can provide a good estimation. However, in complex topography zones, data interpolation is not adequate and the use of Digital Terrain Model (DTM) information can be helpful. In this work, daily solar irradiation is estimated for a wide mountainous area using a combination of Meteosat satellite images and a DTM, with the advantage of avoiding the necessity of ground measurements. This methodology utilizes a modified Heliosat-2 model, and applies for all sky conditions; it also introduces a horizon calculation of the DTM points and accounts for the effect of snow covers. Model performance has been evaluated against data measured in 12 radiometric stations, with results in terms of the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 10%, and a Mean Bias Error (MBE) of +2%, both expressed as a percentage of the mean value measured. (author)

  4. THE REGIONAL DIFFERENCES OF GPP ESTIMATION BY SOLAR INDUCED FLUORESCENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Wang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Estimating gross primary productivity (GPP at large spatial scales is important for studying the global carbon cycle and global climate change. In this study, the relationship between solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF and GPP is analysed in different levels of annual average temperature and annual total precipitation respectively using simple linear regression analysis. The results showed high correlation between SIF and GPP, when the area satisfied annual average temperature in the range of −5 °C to 15 °C and the annual total precipitation is higher than 200 mm. These results can provide a basis for future estimation of GPP research.

  5. The Regional Differences of Gpp Estimation by Solar Induced Fluorescence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, X.; Lu, S.

    2018-04-01

    Estimating gross primary productivity (GPP) at large spatial scales is important for studying the global carbon cycle and global climate change. In this study, the relationship between solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) and GPP is analysed in different levels of annual average temperature and annual total precipitation respectively using simple linear regression analysis. The results showed high correlation between SIF and GPP, when the area satisfied annual average temperature in the range of -5 °C to 15 °C and the annual total precipitation is higher than 200 mm. These results can provide a basis for future estimation of GPP research.

  6. Estimating daily minimum, maximum, and mean near surface air temperature using hybrid satellite models across Israel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenfeld, Adar; Dorman, Michael; Schwartz, Joel; Novack, Victor; Just, Allan C; Kloog, Itai

    2017-11-01

    Meteorological stations measure air temperature (Ta) accurately with high temporal resolution, but usually suffer from limited spatial resolution due to their sparse distribution across rural, undeveloped or less populated areas. Remote sensing satellite-based measurements provide daily surface temperature (Ts) data in high spatial and temporal resolution and can improve the estimation of daily Ta. In this study we developed spatiotemporally resolved models which allow us to predict three daily parameters: Ta Max (day time), 24h mean, and Ta Min (night time) on a fine 1km grid across the state of Israel. We used and compared both the Aqua and Terra MODIS satellites. We used linear mixed effect models, IDW (inverse distance weighted) interpolations and thin plate splines (using a smooth nonparametric function of longitude and latitude) to first calibrate between Ts and Ta in those locations where we have available data for both and used that calibration to fill in neighboring cells without surface monitors or missing Ts. Out-of-sample ten-fold cross validation (CV) was used to quantify the accuracy of our predictions. Our model performance was excellent for both days with and without available Ts observations for both Aqua and Terra (CV Aqua R 2 results for min 0.966, mean 0.986, and max 0.967; CV Terra R 2 results for min 0.965, mean 0.987, and max 0.968). Our research shows that daily min, mean and max Ta can be reliably predicted using daily MODIS Ts data even across Israel, with high accuracy even for days without Ta or Ts data. These predictions can be used as three separate Ta exposures in epidemiology studies for better diurnal exposure assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. A new method for estimating insolation based on PV-module currents in a cluster of stand-alone solar systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nieuwenhout, F; van der Borg, N; van Sark, W.G.J.H.M.; Turkenburg, W.C.

    2007-01-01

    In order to evaluate the performance of solar home systems (SHSs), data on local insolation is a prerequisite. We present a new method to estimate insolation if direct measurements are unavailable. This method comprises estimation of daily irradiation by correlating photovoltaic (PV) module currents

  8. Estimating insolation based on PV-module currents in a cluster of stand-alone solar systems: Introduction of a new method

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nieuwenhout, F; van den Borg, N.; van Sark, W.G.J.H.M.; Turkenburg, W.C.

    In order to evaluate the performance of solar home systems (SHS), data on local insolation is a prerequisite. We present the outline of a new method to estimate insolation if direct measurements are unavailable. This method comprises estimation of daily irradiation by correlating photovoltaic

  9. Estimating microalgae Synechococcus nidulans daily biomass concentration using neuro-fuzzy network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vitor Badiale Furlong

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available In this study, a neuro-fuzzy estimator was developed for the estimation of biomass concentration of the microalgae Synechococcus nidulans from initial batch concentrations, aiming to predict daily productivity. Nine replica experiments were performed. The growth was monitored daily through the culture medium optic density and kept constant up to the end of the exponential phase. The network training followed a full 3³ factorial design, in which the factors were the number of days in the entry vector (3,5 and 7 days, number of clusters (10, 30 and 50 clusters and internal weight softening parameter (Sigma (0.30, 0.45 and 0.60. These factors were confronted with the sum of the quadratic error in the validations. The validations had 24 (A and 18 (B days of culture growth. The validations demonstrated that in long-term experiments (Validation A the use of a few clusters and high Sigma is necessary. However, in short-term experiments (Validation B, Sigma did not influence the result. The optimum point occurred within 3 days in the entry vector, 10 clusters and 0.60 Sigma and the mean determination coefficient was 0.95. The neuro-fuzzy estimator proved a credible alternative to predict the microalgae growth.

  10. Campbell-Bristow development Model for Estimating Global Solar radiation in the Region of Junin, Perú

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dr. Becquer Frauberth Camayo-Lapa

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available In order to have a tool to estimate the monthly and annual solar radiation on the horizontal surface in Junín region, in which is not available with this information, adapted Bristow-Campbell (1984 model for estimating global solar radiation monthly average.   To develop the model of Bristow-Campbell that estimates the average daily global solar radiation monthly modeling technique proposed by Espinoza (2010, were recorded daily maximum and minimum temperatures of 19 weather stations and the equations proposed  by the Solar High Peru 2003 was adapted to this model.  The Bristow-Campbell model was developed with data recorded in stations: Santa Ana, Tarma and Satipo belonging to Sierra and Selva, respectively. The performance of applications calculated solar radiation was determined by considering the OLADE (1992 that solar radiation over 4,0 kWh/m2/day are profitable and 5,0 kWh/m2/day very profitable. The results indicate that the monthly average global solar radiation in Junín  region is 5,3  kWh/m2/day corresponding to the  4,2 Forest and the Sierra 5,6 kWh/m2/day kWh/m2/day. Profitability is determined for the less profitable Selva and Sierra is very profitable. In addition, the operating model is simple and available to all users. We conclude that application of the Bristow-Campbell model adapted, it is an instrument of great utility to generate a comprehensive database of available solar radiation in Junín region.

  11. Comparative studies of measured and estimated values of global solar radiation using Eppley pyranometer and Hargreaves Samani-model at Nsukka under varying climatic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anikpa, P.O.; Osuji, R.U.

    2005-12-01

    This study uses the Hargreaves and Samani (HS) modified model in estimating daily global solar radiation at Nsukka. The model equation was based on daily air temperature range and extraterrestrial solar radiation. The estimated results obtained for six months, staring from 25th August, 2003 to 20th February, 2004 were compared to measured values obtained with standard Eppley pyranometer. The measurements were taken manually within the same period. The comparison indicates that in the dry season months under consideration (December, 2003; January, 2004 and February, 2004) the model clearly gave higher insolation values of the daily global solar radiation. In the wet season months considered (i.e., part of August, 2003 through November, 2003) the model showed neither a clear pattern of higher nor a lower insolation. Further correlation analysis produced neither bias for the wet season nor dry season months. This indicates that on a monthly basis, the monthly average for estimated and measured values correlated well. (author)

  12. Uncertainty Model for Total Solar Irradiance Estimation on Australian Rooftops

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Saadi, Hassan; Zivanovic, Rastko; Al-Sarawi, Said

    2017-11-01

    The installations of solar panels on Australian rooftops have been in rise for the last few years, especially in the urban areas. This motivates academic researchers, distribution network operators and engineers to accurately address the level of uncertainty resulting from grid-connected solar panels. The main source of uncertainty is the intermittent nature of radiation, therefore, this paper presents a new model to estimate the total radiation incident on a tilted solar panel. Where a probability distribution factorizes clearness index, the model is driven upon clearness index with special attention being paid for Australia with the utilization of best-fit-correlation for diffuse fraction. The assessment of the model validity is achieved with the adoption of four goodness-of-fit techniques. In addition, the Quasi Monte Carlo and sparse grid methods are used as sampling and uncertainty computation tools, respectively. High resolution data resolution of solar irradiations for Adelaide city were used for this assessment, with an outcome indicating a satisfactory agreement between actual data variation and model.

  13. 1/f noise as a reliability estimation for solar panels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alabedra, R.; Orsal, B.

    The purpose of this work is a study of the 1/f noise from a forward biased dark solar cell as a nondestructive reliability estimation of solar panels. It is shown that one cell with a given defect can be detected in a solar panel by low frequency noise measurements at obscurity. One real solar panel of 5 cells in parallel and 5 cells in series is tested by this method. The cells for space application are n(+)p monocrystalline silicon junction with an area of 8 sq cm and a base resistivity of 10 ohm/cm. In the first part of this paper the I-V, Rd=f(1) characteristics of one cell or of a panel are not modified when a small defect is introduced by a mechanical constraint. In the second part, the theoretical results on the 1/f noise in a p-n junction under forward bias are recalled. It is shown that the noise of the cell with a defect is about 10 to 15 times higher than that of a good cell. If one good cell is replaced by a cell with defect in the panel 5 x 5, this leads to an increase of about 30 percent of the noise level of the panel.

  14. An estimation of impact of anthropogenic aerosols in atmosphere of Tirana on solar insolation. Part II: Modification of solar energy potential

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buzra, Urim, E-mail: rimibuzra@yahoo.com; Berberi, Pellumb; Mitrushi, Driada; Muda, Valbona [Department of Engineering Physics, FIMIF, PUT, Tirana (Albania); Halili, Daniela [Department of physics, FNS, AXHU, Elbasan (Albania); Berdufi, Irma [Institute of Nuclear Physics, INP, TU, Tirana (Albania)

    2016-03-25

    Change of irradiative properties of the atmosphere during clear days is an indicator, among others, of existence of atmospheric aerosols and can be used as an indicator for assessment both air pollution and local modifications of solar energy potentials. The main objective of this study is estimation of influence of anthropogenic aerosols on solar energy falling in a horizontal surface during a cloudless day. We have analyzed and quantified the effect of aerosols on reducing the amount of solar energy that falls on the horizontal ground surface in cloudless sky conditions, estimating temporal evolution, both in daily and hour scale, considering also, side effects caused by relative humidity of the air wind speed and geometric factor. As an indicator of concentration of aerosols in atmosphere, we agreed to use the attenuation of solar radiation after the last rainy day. All data were corrected by factors such as, variations of relative humidity, wind speed and daily change of incident angle of solar radiation. We studied the change of solar insolation in three sites with different traffic intensity, one in city of Shkodra and two in city of Tirana. Fifteen days after last rainy day, approximate time needed to achieve saturation, the insolation drops only 3.1% in the city of Shkodra, while in two sites in city of Tirana are 8.5 % and 18.4%. These data show that reduction of solar insolation is closely related with anthropogenic activity, mainly traffic around the site of the meteorological station. The day to day difference tends to decrease with increasing of number of days passed from the last rainy day, which is an evidence of a trend toward a dynamic equilibrium between decantation process of aerosols during the night and their generation during the day.

  15. Estimation of diffuse from measured global solar radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moriarty, W.W.

    1991-01-01

    A data set of quality controlled radiation observations from stations scattered throughout Australia was formed and further screened to remove residual doubtful observations. It was then divided into groups by solar elevation, and used to find average relationships for each elevation group between relative global radiation (clearness index - the measured global radiation expressed as a proportion of the radiation on a horizontal surface at the top of the atmosphere) and relative diffuse radiation. Clear-cut relationships were found, which were then fitted by polynomial expressions giving the relative diffuse radiation as a function of relative global radiation and solar elevation. When these expressions were used to estimate the diffuse radiation from the global, the results had a slightly smaller spread of errors than those from an earlier technique given by Spencer. It was found that the errors were related to cloud amount, and further relationships were developed giving the errors as functions of global radiation, solar elevation, and the fraction of sky obscured by high cloud and by opaque (low and middle level) cloud. When these relationships were used to adjust the first estimates of diffuse radiation, there was a considerable reduction in the number of large errors

  16. Estimation of solar radiation from Australian meterological observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moriarty, W.W.

    1991-01-01

    A carefully prepared set of Australian radiation and meteorological data was used to develop a system for estimating hourly or instantaneous broad band direct, diffuse and global radiation from meteorological observations. For clear sky conditions relationships developed elsewhere were adapted to Australian data. For cloudy conditions the clouds were divided into two groups, high clouds and opaque (middle and low) clouds, and corrections were made to compensate for the bias due to reporting practices for almost clear and almost overcast skies. Careful consideration was given to the decrease of visible sky toward the horizon caused by the vertical extent of opaque clouds. Equations relating cloud and other meteorological observations to the direct and diffuse radiation contained four unknown quantities, functions of cloud amount and of solar elevation, which were estimated from the data. These were the proportions of incident solar radiation passed on as direct and as diffuse radiation by high clouds, and as diffuse radiation by opaque clouds, and a factor to describe the elevation dependence of the fraction of sky not obscured by opaque clouds. When the resulting relationships were used to estimate global, direct and diffuse radiation on a horizontal surface, the results were good, especially for global radiation. Some discrepancies between estimates and measurements of diffuse and direct radiation were probably due to erroneously high measurements of diffuse radiation

  17. Validation of a spectrophotometer-based method for estimating daily sperm production and deferent duct transit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Froman, D P; Rhoads, D D

    2012-10-01

    The objectives of the present work were 3-fold. First, a new method for estimating daily sperm production was validated. This method, in turn, was used to evaluate testis output as well as deferent duct throughput. Next, this analytical approach was evaluated in 2 experiments. The first experiment compared left and right reproductive tracts within roosters. The second experiment compared reproductive tract throughput in roosters from low and high sperm mobility lines. Standard curves were constructed from which unknown concentrations of sperm cells and sperm nuclei could be predicted from observed absorbance. In each case, the independent variable was based upon hemacytometer counts, and absorbance was a linear function of concentration. Reproductive tracts were excised, semen recovered from each duct, and the extragonadal sperm reserve determined by multiplying volume by sperm cell concentration. Testicular sperm nuclei were procured by homogenization of a whole testis, overlaying a 20-mL volume of homogenate upon 15% (wt/vol) Accudenz (Accurate Chemical and Scientific Corporation, Westbury, NY), and then washing nuclei by centrifugation through the Accudenz layer. Daily sperm production was determined by dividing the predicted number of sperm nuclei within the homogenate by 4.5 d (i.e., the time sperm with elongated nuclei spend within the testis). Sperm transit through the deferent duct was estimated by dividing the extragonadal reserve by daily sperm production. Neither the efficiency of sperm production (sperm per gram of testicular parenchyma per day) nor deferent duct transit differed between left and right reproductive tracts (P > 0.05). Whereas efficiency of sperm production did not differ (P > 0.05) between low and high sperm mobility lines, deferent duct transit differed between lines (P < 0.001). On average, this process required 2.2 and 1.0 d for low and high lines, respectively. In summary, we developed and then tested a method for quantifying male

  18. Estimation and prediction of maximum daily rainfall at Sagar Island using best fit probability models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandal, S.; Choudhury, B. U.

    2015-07-01

    Sagar Island, setting on the continental shelf of Bay of Bengal, is one of the most vulnerable deltas to the occurrence of extreme rainfall-driven climatic hazards. Information on probability of occurrence of maximum daily rainfall will be useful in devising risk management for sustaining rainfed agrarian economy vis-a-vis food and livelihood security. Using six probability distribution models and long-term (1982-2010) daily rainfall data, we studied the probability of occurrence of annual, seasonal and monthly maximum daily rainfall (MDR) in the island. To select the best fit distribution models for annual, seasonal and monthly time series based on maximum rank with minimum value of test statistics, three statistical goodness of fit tests, viz. Kolmogorove-Smirnov test (K-S), Anderson Darling test ( A 2 ) and Chi-Square test ( X 2) were employed. The fourth probability distribution was identified from the highest overall score obtained from the three goodness of fit tests. Results revealed that normal probability distribution was best fitted for annual, post-monsoon and summer seasons MDR, while Lognormal, Weibull and Pearson 5 were best fitted for pre-monsoon, monsoon and winter seasons, respectively. The estimated annual MDR were 50, 69, 86, 106 and 114 mm for return periods of 2, 5, 10, 20 and 25 years, respectively. The probability of getting an annual MDR of >50, >100, >150, >200 and >250 mm were estimated as 99, 85, 40, 12 and 03 % level of exceedance, respectively. The monsoon, summer and winter seasons exhibited comparatively higher probabilities (78 to 85 %) for MDR of >100 mm and moderate probabilities (37 to 46 %) for >150 mm. For different recurrence intervals, the percent probability of MDR varied widely across intra- and inter-annual periods. In the island, rainfall anomaly can pose a climatic threat to the sustainability of agricultural production and thus needs adequate adaptation and mitigation measures.

  19. System for the Automatic Estimation of the Tilt Angle of a Flat Solar Collector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Fonseca-Campos

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available In this work, a compact system for the automatic estimation of the tilt angle at any location of the world is presented. The system components are one computer, one GPS receiver and one Python program. The tilt angle is calculated through the maximization of the flux of direct radiation incident upon a flat solar collector. An estimation of the adjustments of this angle at different time periods are obtained. This angle is calculated in steps of six minutes during a whole year. Daily, monthly, biannually and yearly averages of this value are obtained. A comparison of the energetic gain when the tilt angle changes at the different time periods is made as well. Because, the algorithm doesn’t receive as an input the solar radiation incident upon a surface at the location of the calculation, a comparison was made between the results obtained and the results reported for the monthly tilt angle of 22 different places. The root mean square error obtained with this comparison was between 1.5 and 9.5 degrees. The monthly tilt angle estimated deviated in average for less than 6.3° with respect to the values reported for the different locations. Finally, the application of a correction factor in the monthly estimated angles is proposed, which might increase the collected energy.

  20. Support vector regression methodology for estimating global solar radiation in Algeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guermoui, Mawloud; Rabehi, Abdelaziz; Gairaa, Kacem; Benkaciali, Said

    2018-01-01

    Accurate estimation of Daily Global Solar Radiation (DGSR) has been a major goal for solar energy applications. In this paper we show the possibility of developing a simple model based on the Support Vector Regression (SVM-R), which could be used to estimate DGSR on the horizontal surface in Algeria based only on sunshine ratio as input. The SVM model has been developed and tested using a data set recorded over three years (2005-2007). The data was collected at the Applied Research Unit for Renewable Energies (URAER) in Ghardaïa city. The data collected between 2005-2006 are used to train the model while the 2007 data are used to test the performance of the selected model. The measured and the estimated values of DGSR were compared during the testing phase statistically using the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Relative Square Error (rRMSE), and correlation coefficient (r2), which amount to 1.59(MJ/m2), 8.46 and 97,4%, respectively. The obtained results show that the SVM-R is highly qualified for DGSR estimation using only sunshine ratio.

  1. Global Performance of a Fast Parameterization Scheme for Estimating Surface Solar Radiation from MODIS data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, W.; Yang, K.; Sun, Z.; Qin, J.; Niu, X.

    2016-12-01

    A fast parameterization scheme named SUNFLUX is used in this study to estimate instantaneous surface solar radiation (SSR) based on products from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor onboard both Terra and Aqua platforms. The scheme mainly takes into account the absorption and scattering processes due to clouds, aerosols and gas in the atmosphere. The estimated instantaneous SSR is evaluated against surface observations obtained from seven stations of the Surface Radiation Budget Network (SURFRAD), four stations in the North China Plain (NCP) and 40 stations of the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN). The statistical results for evaluation against these three datasets show that the relative root-mean-square error (RMSE) values of SUNFLUX are less than 15%, 16% and 17%, respectively. Daily SSR is derived through temporal upscaling from the MODIS-based instantaneous SSR estimates, and is validated against surface observations. The relative RMSE values for daily SSR estimates are about 16% at the seven SURFRAD stations, four NCP stations, 40 BSRN stations and 90 China Meteorological Administration (CMA) radiation stations.

  2. SOLAR RADIATION ESTIMATION ON BUILDING ROOFS AND WEB-BASED SOLAR CADASTRE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Agugiaro

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is the estimation of solar irradiance on building roofs in complex Alpine landscapes. Very high resolution geometric models of the building roofs are generated by means of advanced automated image matching methods. Models are combined with raster and vector data sources to estimate the incoming solar radiation hitting the roofs. The methodology takes into account for atmospheric effects, site latitude and elevation, slope and aspect of the terrain as well as the effects of shadows cast by surrounding buildings, chimneys, dormers, vegetation and terrain topography. An open source software solution has been developed and applied to a study area located in a mountainous site and containing some 1250 residential, commercial and industrial buildings. The method has been validated by data collected with a pyranometer and results made available through a prototype WebGIS platform.

  3. Estimating daily forest carbon fluxes using a combination of ground and remotely sensed data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chirici, Gherardo; Chiesi, Marta; Corona, Piermaria; Salvati, Riccardo; Papale, Dario; Fibbi, Luca; Sirca, Costantino; Spano, Donatella; Duce, Pierpaolo; Marras, Serena; Matteucci, Giorgio; Cescatti, Alessandro; Maselli, Fabio

    2016-02-01

    Several studies have demonstrated that Monteith's approach can efficiently predict forest gross primary production (GPP), while the modeling of net ecosystem production (NEP) is more critical, requiring the additional simulation of forest respirations. The NEP of different forest ecosystems in Italy was currently simulated by the use of a remote sensing driven parametric model (modified C-Fix) and a biogeochemical model (BIOME-BGC). The outputs of the two models, which simulate forests in quasi-equilibrium conditions, are combined to estimate the carbon fluxes of actual conditions using information regarding the existing woody biomass. The estimates derived from the methodology have been tested against daily reference GPP and NEP data collected through the eddy correlation technique at five study sites in Italy. The first test concerned the theoretical validity of the simulation approach at both annual and daily time scales and was performed using optimal model drivers (i.e., collected or calibrated over the site measurements). Next, the test was repeated to assess the operational applicability of the methodology, which was driven by spatially extended data sets (i.e., data derived from existing wall-to-wall digital maps). A good estimation accuracy was generally obtained for GPP and NEP when using optimal model drivers. The use of spatially extended data sets worsens the accuracy to a varying degree, which is properly characterized. The model drivers with the most influence on the flux modeling strategy are, in increasing order of importance, forest type, soil features, meteorology, and forest woody biomass (growing stock volume).

  4. Estimating solar resources in Mexico using cloud cover data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Renne, David; George, Ray; Brady, Liz; Marion, Bill [National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Colorado (United States); Estrada Cajigal, Vicente [Cuernavaca, Morelos (Mexico)

    2000-07-01

    This paper presents the results of applying the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) Climatological Solar Radiation (CSR) model to Mexico to develop solar resource data. A major input to the CSR model is a worldwide surface and satellite-derived cloud cover database, called the Real Time Nephanalysis (RTNEPH). The RTNEPH is developed by the U.S. Air Force and distributed by the U.S. National Climatic Data Center. The RTNEPH combines routine ground-based cloud cover observations made every three hours at national weather centers throughout the world with satellite-derived cloud cover information developed from polar orbiting weather satellites. The data are geospatially digitized so that multilayerd cloud cover information is available on a grid of approximately 40-km to a side. The development of this database is an ongoing project that now covers more than twenty years of observations. For the North America analysis (including Mexico) we used an 8-year summarized histogram of the RTNEPH that provides monthly average cloud cover information for the period 1985-1992. The CSR model also accounts for attenuation of the solar beam due to aerosols, atmospheric trace gases, and water vapor. The CSR model outputs monthly average direct normal, global horizontal and diffuse solar information for each of the 40-km grid cells. From this information it is also possible to produce solar resource estimates for various solar collector types and orientations, such as flat plate collectors oriented at latitude tilt, or concentrating solar power collectors. Model results are displayed using Geographic Information System software. CSR model results for Mexico are presented here, along with a discussion of earlier solar resource assessment studies for Mexico, where both modeling approaches and measurement analyses have been used. [Spanish] Este articulo presenta los resultados de aplicar el modelo Radiacion Solar Climatologica CSR del NREL (National Renewable Energy

  5. Assessment of laboratory and daily energy expenditure estimates from consumer multi-sensor physical activity monitors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowdhury, Enhad A; Western, Max J; Nightingale, Thomas E; Peacock, Oliver J; Thompson, Dylan

    2017-01-01

    Wearable physical activity monitors are growing in popularity and provide the opportunity for large numbers of the public to self-monitor physical activity behaviours. The latest generation of these devices feature multiple sensors, ostensibly similar or even superior to advanced research instruments. However, little is known about the accuracy of their energy expenditure estimates. Here, we assessed their performance against criterion measurements in both controlled laboratory conditions (simulated activities of daily living and structured exercise) and over a 24 hour period in free-living conditions. Thirty men (n = 15) and women (n = 15) wore three multi-sensor consumer monitors (Microsoft Band, Apple Watch and Fitbit Charge HR), an accelerometry-only device as a comparison (Jawbone UP24) and validated research-grade multi-sensor devices (BodyMedia Core and individually calibrated Actiheart™). During discrete laboratory activities when compared against indirect calorimetry, the Apple Watch performed similarly to criterion measures. The Fitbit Charge HR was less consistent at measurement of discrete activities, but produced similar free-living estimates to the Apple Watch. Both these devices underestimated free-living energy expenditure (-394 kcal/d and -405 kcal/d, respectively; P<0.01). The multi-sensor Microsoft Band and accelerometry-only Jawbone UP24 devices underestimated most laboratory activities and substantially underestimated free-living expenditure (-1128 kcal/d and -998 kcal/d, respectively; P<0.01). None of the consumer devices were deemed equivalent to the reference method for daily energy expenditure. For all devices, there was a tendency for negative bias with greater daily energy expenditure. No consumer monitors performed as well as the research-grade devices although in some (but not all) cases, estimates were close to criterion measurements. Thus, whilst industry-led innovation has improved the accuracy of consumer monitors, these devices

  6. Assessment of laboratory and daily energy expenditure estimates from consumer multi-sensor physical activity monitors.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enhad A Chowdhury

    Full Text Available Wearable physical activity monitors are growing in popularity and provide the opportunity for large numbers of the public to self-monitor physical activity behaviours. The latest generation of these devices feature multiple sensors, ostensibly similar or even superior to advanced research instruments. However, little is known about the accuracy of their energy expenditure estimates. Here, we assessed their performance against criterion measurements in both controlled laboratory conditions (simulated activities of daily living and structured exercise and over a 24 hour period in free-living conditions. Thirty men (n = 15 and women (n = 15 wore three multi-sensor consumer monitors (Microsoft Band, Apple Watch and Fitbit Charge HR, an accelerometry-only device as a comparison (Jawbone UP24 and validated research-grade multi-sensor devices (BodyMedia Core and individually calibrated Actiheart™. During discrete laboratory activities when compared against indirect calorimetry, the Apple Watch performed similarly to criterion measures. The Fitbit Charge HR was less consistent at measurement of discrete activities, but produced similar free-living estimates to the Apple Watch. Both these devices underestimated free-living energy expenditure (-394 kcal/d and -405 kcal/d, respectively; P<0.01. The multi-sensor Microsoft Band and accelerometry-only Jawbone UP24 devices underestimated most laboratory activities and substantially underestimated free-living expenditure (-1128 kcal/d and -998 kcal/d, respectively; P<0.01. None of the consumer devices were deemed equivalent to the reference method for daily energy expenditure. For all devices, there was a tendency for negative bias with greater daily energy expenditure. No consumer monitors performed as well as the research-grade devices although in some (but not all cases, estimates were close to criterion measurements. Thus, whilst industry-led innovation has improved the accuracy of consumer monitors

  7. Estimation of daily minimum land surface air temperature using MODIS data in southern Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Didari, Shohreh; Norouzi, Hamidreza; Zand-Parsa, Shahrokh; Khanbilvardi, Reza

    2017-11-01

    Land surface air temperature (LSAT) is a key variable in agricultural, climatological, hydrological, and environmental studies. Many of their processes are affected by LSAT at about 5 cm from the ground surface (LSAT5cm). Most of the previous studies tried to find statistical models to estimate LSAT at 2 m height (LSAT2m) which is considered as a standardized height, and there is not enough study for LSAT5cm estimation models. Accurate measurements of LSAT5cm are generally acquired from meteorological stations, which are sparse in remote areas. Nonetheless, remote sensing data by providing rather extensive spatial coverage can complement the spatiotemporal shortcomings of meteorological stations. The main objective of this study was to find a statistical model from the previous day to accurately estimate spatial daily minimum LSAT5cm, which is very important in agricultural frost, in Fars province in southern Iran. Land surface temperature (LST) data were obtained using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard Aqua and Terra satellites at daytime and nighttime periods with normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data. These data along with geometric temperature and elevation information were used in a stepwise linear model to estimate minimum LSAT5cm during 2003-2011. The results revealed that utilization of MODIS Aqua nighttime data of previous day provides the most applicable and accurate model. According to the validation results, the accuracy of the proposed model was suitable during 2012 (root mean square difference ( RMSD) = 3.07 °C, {R}_{adj}^2 = 87 %). The model underestimated (overestimated) high (low) minimum LSAT5cm. The accuracy of estimation in the winter time was found to be lower than the other seasons ( RMSD = 3.55 °C), and in summer and winter, the errors were larger than in the remaining seasons.

  8. Estimation of the oxalate content of foods and daily oxalate intake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, R. P.; Kennedy, M.

    2000-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The amount of oxalate ingested may be an important risk factor in the development of idiopathic calcium oxalate nephrolithiasis. Reliable food tables listing the oxalate content of foods are currently not available. The aim of this research was to develop an accurate and reliable method to measure the food content of oxalate. METHODS: Capillary electrophoresis (CE) and ion chromatography (IC) were compared as direct techniques for the estimation of the oxalate content of foods. Foods were thoroughly homogenized in acid, heat extracted, and clarified by centrifugation and filtration before dilution in water for analysis. Five individuals consuming self-selected diets maintained food records for three days to determine their mean daily oxalate intakes. RESULTS: Both techniques were capable of adequately measuring the oxalate in foods with a significant oxalate content. With foods of very low oxalate content (choice over IC for estimating the oxalate content of foods with a medium (>10 mg/100 g) to high oxalate content due to a faster analysis time and lower running costs, whereas IC may be better suited for the analysis of foods with a low oxalate content. Accurate estimates of the oxalate content of foods should permit the role of dietary oxalate in urinary oxalate excretion and stone formation to be clarified. Other factors, apart from the amount of oxalate ingested, appear to exert a major influence over the amount of oxalate excreted in the urine.

  9. Estimated daily intake of Fe, Cu, Ca and Zn through common cereals in Tehran, Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kashian, S; Fathivand, A A

    2015-06-01

    This paper presents the findings of study undertaken to estimate the dietary intake of iron (Fe), copper (Cu), calcium (Ca) and zinc (Zn) through common cereals in Tehran, Iran. 100 samples of rice, wheat and barley were collected from various brands between August and October 2013. The samples were analyzed performing instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA). The dietary intake for adults was estimated by a total cereal study. Calculations were carried out on the basis of the reported adults' average food consumption rate data. The total daily intake estimated in mgd(-1) for Tehran population were 3.6 (Fe), 10.2 (Zn), 0.3 (Cu) and 234.5 (Ca). Wheat showed the highest contribution to Zn, Cu and Ca intakes. Furthermore, intakes were compared with recommended dietary allowance (RDA). Zn total intake (10.2mgd(-1)) was comparable with RDA values for males (11mgd(-1)) and was higher than recommended value for females (8mgd(-1)). The intakes of other studied elements were below the respective RDAs. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Estimating Daily Global Evapotranspiration Using Penman–Monteith Equation and Remotely Sensed Land Surface Temperature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roozbeh Raoufi

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Daily evapotranspiration (ET is modeled globally for the period 2000–2013 based on the Penman–Monteith equation with radiation and vapor pressures derived using remotely sensed Land Surface Temperature (LST from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS on the Aqua and Terra satellites. The ET for a given land area is based on four surface conditions: wet/dry and vegetated/non-vegetated. For each, the ET resistance terms are based on land cover, leaf area index (LAI and literature values. The vegetated/non-vegetated fractions of the land surface are estimated using land cover, LAI, a simplified version of the Beer–Lambert law for describing light transition through vegetation and newly derived light extension coefficients for each MODIS land cover type. The wet/dry fractions of the land surface are nonlinear functions of LST derived humidity calibrated using in-situ ET measurements. Results are compared to in-situ measurements (average of the root mean squared errors and mean absolute errors for 39 sites are 0.81 mm day−1 and 0.59 mm day−1, respectively and the MODIS ET product, MOD16, (mean bias during 2001–2013 is −0.2 mm day−1. Although the mean global difference between MOD16 and ET estimates is only 0.2 mm day−1, local temperature derived vapor pressures are the likely contributor to differences, especially in energy and water limited regions. The intended application for the presented model is simulating ET based on long-term climate forecasts (e.g., using only minimum, maximum and mean daily or monthly temperatures.

  11. Estimation of hourly ultraviolet solar irradiance in the semi-arid northeast region of Brasil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andrade, Ricardo C. de; Tiba, Chigueru [Dept. de Energia Nuclear da Univ. Federal de Pernambuco, Recife, Pernambuco (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    Two computational codes, SPCTRAL2 and SMARTS2, were used for estimating ultraviolet solar irradiance in a locality of the semi-arid region of the Northeast of Brazil. The softwares presented simplicity of use, precision and relative ease in obtaining the input variables: zenith angle, atmospheric pressure in relation to sea level, relative humidity of the air, amount of precipitable water, total ozone and the aerosol optic depths (AOD). All these variables are measured in conventional meteorological stations, except for the aerosol optic depth. The AOD was measured with an apparatus that was constructed with a narrow band LED sensor, centered in 555nm which measures the monochromatic radiation transmission through the terrestrial atmosphere, which can be described by Beer's law. The measurements for obtaining the AOD were carried out during the months of December, 2006 and January, 2007 for Pesqueira-PE (Longitude -36.77 and Latitude 8.4 ) semi-arid region of Pernambuco, at intervals of 10 and 10 minutes, simultaneously. The ultraviolet solar irradiation was measured with a TURV (Total Ultraviolet Radiometer) Eppley Pyranometer on a minute scale. The computational simulations with SPCTRAL2 and SMARTS2 were made considering the following cases: (a) obtention of daily AOD, or be it, coming from the linear extrapolation of all the data along the day (b) obtention of hourly AOD, or be it the linearization by parts (piecewise). In the first case, the results of the simulations of ultraviolet solar irradiance and ultraviolet radiation index show an error of 4% and 13% for solar midday, and 78% at end of afternoon, when compared with the values measured with the TURV pyranometer. These results were significantly improved when using the AOD obtained on hourly bases: an error of 6.7 % for solar midday, a maximum error of 10% between 11 and 13 h, a maximum error of 20% between 10 and 14h and finally a maximum error of 30% between 9 and 15h. (orig.)

  12. Applicability of empirical correlations for estimating global solar radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gopinathan, K.K.; Baholo, M.

    1987-01-01

    Three empirical models suggested by different investigators, for estimating monthly mean daily global radiation on a horizontal surface, are compared statistically to test their universal applicability. The models thus compared are those suggested by Rietveld, Glover and McCulloch and Gopinathan. The models are compared by calculating the root mean square error, mean bias error and mean relative percentage error values. The model suggested by Gopinathan yields the best results in terms of root mean square, mean bias and mean percentage errors. The model by Rietveld is the second best and the model by Glover and McCulloch comes at third place. However, the differences in the magnitude of errors among the three models are very small and all the three models can be considered to be accurate for global radiation estimation for any location in the world

  13. Solar Energy Potential Estimation in Perak Using Clearness Index and Artificial Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Assadi Morteza Khalaji

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper solar energy potential has been estimated by two methods which are clearness index and artificial network (ANN methods. The selected region is Seri Iskandar, Perak (4°24´latitude, 100°58´E longitude, 24 m altitude. Experimental data (monthly average daily radiation on horizontal surface was obtained from UTP solar research site in UTP campus. The data include the period of 2010 to 2012 and were used for testing the artificial neural network model and also for determination of clearness index. Also the experimental data of the three meteorological, Ipoh, Bayan Lepas & KLIA were used in calculating the clearness index and for training the neural network. Result shows that clearness index for Seri Iskandar is 0.52, the highest radiation is on February (20.45 MJ/m2/day, annual average is 18.25 MJ/m2/day and clearness index is more accurate than ANN when there is limited data supply. In general, Perak states show strong potential for solar energy application.

  14. Potential for improvement in estimation of solar diffuse irradiance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muneer, T.; Munawwar, S.

    2006-01-01

    Most of the meteorological stations around the world measure global irradiation and provide information on weather elements. Diffuse radiation measurement, however, is unavailable for many of those sites. This accentuates the need to estimate it whereupon it can be used for the simulation of solar applications. This paper explores the role of synoptic information, e.g. sunshine fraction, cloud cover and air mass on the basic k-k t relationship for nine sites across the globe. The influence on the k-k t regressions is studied qualitatively, and the inclusion of these parameters is suggested based on that. Thus, it is recommended to use the complementary data usually provided with the database apart from the global irradiation in order to estimate the diffuse irradiation more accurately. It was found by analysing each synoptic parameter individually that while the sunshine fraction showed a strong bearing, it was followed closely by cloud cover. Air mass, on the other hand, was found to be a weak parameter for general estimation of diffuse radiation. It was concluded that air mass if coupled with other synoptic parameters might improve the estimation accuracy, but it does not show much promise on its own when used with the global irradiation

  15. Impact of sampling resolution on estimation of community-wide daily illicit drug use

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ramin, Pedram; Baz Lomba, J. A.; Reid, M.

    It is a common approach to report daily community-wide drug consumption, based on single daily measurements of the influent from a treatment plant. This article suggests that neglecting diurnal variations of loads and flow can result in misestimating daily drug consumption.......It is a common approach to report daily community-wide drug consumption, based on single daily measurements of the influent from a treatment plant. This article suggests that neglecting diurnal variations of loads and flow can result in misestimating daily drug consumption....

  16. SORCE SOLSTICE FUV Level 3 Solar Spectral Irradiance Daily Means V012

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The SORCE SOLSTICE Far-UV Solar Spectral Irradiance (SSI) data product SOR3SOLFUVD is constructed using measurements from the SOLSTICE FUV instrument, which are...

  17. Estimation of the total daily oral intake of NDMA attributable to drinking water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fristachi, Anthony; Rice, Glenn

    2007-09-01

    Disinfection with chlorine and chloramine leads to the formation of many disinfection by-products including N-Nitrosodimethylamine (NDMA). Because NDMA is a probable human carcinogen, public health officials are concerned with its occurrence in drinking water. The goal of this study was to estimate NDMA concentrations from exogenous (i.e., drinking water and food) and endogenous (i.e., formed in the human body) sources, calculate average daily doses for ingestion route exposures and estimate the proportional oral intake (POI) of NDMA attributable to the consumption of drinking water relative to other ingestion sources of NDMA. The POI is predicted to be 0.02% relative to exogenous and endogenous NDMA sources combined. When only exogenous sources are considered, the POI was predicted to be 2.7%. The exclusion of endogenously formed NDMA causes the POI to increase dramatically, reflecting its importance as a potentially major source of exposure and uncertainty in the model. Although concentrations of NDMA in foods are small and human exposure to NDMA from foods is quite low, the contribution from food is predicted to be high relative to that of drinking water. The mean concentration of NDMA in drinking water would need to increase from 2.1 x 10(-3) microg/L to 0.10 microg/L, a 47-fold increase, for the POI to reach 1%, relative to all sources of NDMA considered in our model, suggesting that drinking water consumption is most likely a minor source of NDMA exposure.

  18. Intraspecies variation in BMR does not affect estimates of early hominin total daily energy expenditure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Froehle, Andrew W; Schoeninger, Margaret J

    2006-12-01

    We conducted a meta-analysis of 45 studies reporting basal metabolic rate (BMR) data for Homo sapiens and Pan troglodytes to determine the effects of sex, age, and latitude (a proxy for climate, in humans only). BMR was normalized for body size using fat-free mass in humans and body mass in chimpanzees. We found no effect of sex in either species and no age effect in chimpanzees. In humans, juveniles differed significantly from adults (ANCOVA: P BMR and body size, and used them to predict total daily energy expenditure (TEE) in four early hominin species. Our predictions concur with previous TEE estimates (i.e. Leonard and Robertson: Am J Phys Anthropol 102 (1997) 265-281), and support the conclusion that TEE increased greatly with H. erectus. Our results show that intraspecific variation in BMR does not affect TEE estimates for interspecific comparisons. Comparisons of more closely related groups such as humans and Neandertals, however, may benefit from consideration of this variation. 2006 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  19. Estimated Daily Intake and Seasonal Food Sources of Quercetin in Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haruno Nishimuro

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Quercetin is a promising food component, which can prevent lifestyle related diseases. To understand the dietary intake of quercetin in the subjects of a population-based cohort study and in the Japanese population, we first determined the quercetin content in foods available in the market during June and July in or near a town in Hokkaido, Japan. Red leaf lettuce, asparagus, and onions contained high amounts of quercetin derivatives. We then estimated the daily quercetin intake by 570 residents aged 20–92 years old in the town using a food frequency questionnaire (FFQ. The average and median quercetin intakes were 16.2 and 15.5 mg day−1, respectively. The quercetin intakes by men were lower than those by women; the quercetin intakes showed a low correlation with age in both men and women. The estimated quercetin intake was similar during summer and winter. Quercetin was mainly ingested from onions and green tea, both in summer and in winter. Vegetables, such as asparagus, green pepper, tomatoes, and red leaf lettuce, were good sources of quercetin in summer. Our results will help to elucidate the association between quercetin intake and risks of lifestyle-related diseases by further prospective cohort study and establish healthy dietary requirements with the consumption of more physiologically useful components from foods.

  20. Combined equations for estimating global solar radiation: Projection of radiation field over Japan under global warming conditions by statistical downscaling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iizumi, T.; Nishimori, M.; Yokozawa, M.

    2008-01-01

    For this study, we developed a new statistical model to estimate the daily accumulated global solar radiation on the earth's surface and used the model to generate a high-resolution climate change scenario of the radiation field in Japan. The statistical model mainly relies on precipitable water vapor calculated from air temperature and relative humidity on the surface to estimate seasonal changes in global solar radiation. On the other hand, to estimate daily radiation fluctuations, the model uses either a diurnal temperature range or relative humidity. The diurnal temperature range, calculated from the daily maximum and minimum temperatures, and relative humidity is a general output of most climate models, and pertinent observation data are comparatively easy to access. The statistical model performed well when estimating the monthly mean value, daily fluctuation statistics, and regional differences in the radiation field in Japan. To project the change in the radiation field for the years 2081 to 2100, we applied the statistical model to the climate change scenario of a high-resolution Regional Climate Model with a 20-km mesh size (RCM20) developed at the Meteorological Research Institute based on the Special Report for Emission Scenario (SRES)-A2. The projected change shows the following tendency: global solar radiation will increase in the warm season and decrease in the cool season in many areas of Japan, indicating that global warming may cause changes in the radiation field in Japan. The generated climate change scenario for the radiation field is linked to long-term and short-term changes in air temperature and relative humidity obtained from the RCM20 and, consequently, is expected to complement the RCM20 datasets for an impact assessment study in the agricultural sector

  1. Soil temperature synchronisation improves estimation of daily variation of ecosystem respiration in Sphagnum peatlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Angelo, Benoît; Gogo, Sébastien; Le Moing, Franck; Jégou, Fabrice; Guimbaud, Christophe; Laggoun, Fatima

    2015-04-01

    Ecosystem respiration (ER) is a key process in the global C cycle and thus, plays an important role in the climate regulation. Peatlands contain a third of the world soil C in spite of their relatively low global area (3% of land area). Although these ecosystems represent potentially a significant source of C under global change, they are still not taken into account accordingly in global climatic models. Therefore, ER variations have to be accounted for, especially by estimating its dependence to temperature.s The relationship between ER and temperature often relies only on one soil temperature depth and the latter is generally taken in the first 10 centimetres. Previous studies showed that the temperature dependence of ER depends on the depth at which the temperature is recorded. The depth selection for temperature measurement is thus a predominant issue. A way to deal with this is to analyse the time-delay between ER and temperature. The aim of this work is to assess whether using synchronised data in models leads to a better ER daily variation estimation than using non-synchronised data. ER measurements were undertaken in 2013 in 4 Sphagnum peatlands across France: La Guette (N 47°19'44', E 2°17'04', 154m) in July, Landemarais (N 48°26'30', E -1°10'54', 145m) in August, Frasne (N 46°49'35', E 6°10'20', 836m) in September, and Bernadouze (N 42°48'09', E 1°25'24', 1500m) in October. A closed method chamber was used to measure ER hourly during 72 hours in each of the 4 replicates installed in each site. Average ER ranged from 1.75 μmol m-2 s-1 to 6.13 μmol m-2 s-1. A weather station was used to record meteorological data and soil temperature profiles (5, 10, 20 and 30 cm). Synchronised data were determined for each depth by selecting the time-delay leading to the best correlation between ER and soil temperature. The data were used to simulate ER according to commonly used equations: linear, exponential with Q10, Arrhenius, Lloyd and Taylor. Models

  2. Development of software for estimating clear sky solar radiation in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ambarita, H.

    2017-01-01

    Research on solar energy applications in Indonesia has come under scrutiny in recent years. Solar radiation is harvested by solar collector or solar cell and convert the energy into useful energy such as heat and or electricity. In order to provide a better configuration of a solar collector or a solar cell, clear sky radiation should be estimated properly. In this study, an in-house software for estimating clear sky radiation is developed. The governing equations are solved simultaneously. The software is tested in Medan city by performing a solar radiation measurements. For clear sky radiation, the results of the software and measurements ones show a good agreement. However, for the cloudy sky condition it cannot predict the solar radiation. This software can be used to estimate the clear sky radiation in Indonesia.

  3. Extreme daily increases in peak electricity demand: Tail-quantile estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sigauke, Caston; Verster, Andréhette; Chikobvu, Delson

    2013-01-01

    A Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) is used to model extreme daily increases in peak electricity demand. The model is fitted to years 2000–2011 recorded data for South Africa to make a comparative analysis with the Generalized Pareto-type (GP-type) distribution. Peak electricity demand is influenced by the tails of probability distributions as well as by means or averages. At times there is a need to depart from the average thinking and exploit information provided by the extremes (tails). Empirical results show that both the GP-type and the GPD are a good fit to the data. One of the main advantages of the GP-type is the estimation of only one parameter. Modelling of extreme daily increases in peak electricity demand helps in quantifying the amount of electricity which can be shifted from the grid to off peak periods. One of the policy implications derived from this study is the need for day-time use of electricity billing system similar to the one used in the cellular telephone/and fixed line-billing technology. This will result in the shifting of electricity demand on the grid to off peak time slots as users try to avoid high peak hour charges. - Highlights: ► Policy makers should design demand response strategies to save electricity. ► Peak electricity demand is influenced by tails of probability distributions. ► Both the GSP and the GPD are a good fit to the data. ► Accurate assessment of level and frequency of extreme load forecasts is important.

  4. Models in the estimate of the diffuse solar radiation; Modelos de estimativa da radiacao solar difusa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Recieri, Reinaldo Prandini; Ferruzzi, Yuri; Silva, Suedemio de Lima [Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Parana (UNIOESTE/FAG), Cascavel, PR (Brazil). Curso de Mestrado em Engenharia Agricola; Quallio, Silvana [Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Parana (UNIOESTE/FAG), Cascavel, PR (Brazil). Curso de Biologia; Batista, Vitor Roberto Lourenco [Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Parana (UNIOESTE/FAG), Cascavel, PR (Brazil). Curso de Graduacao em Engenharia Eletrica

    2004-07-01

    In this work we evaluate, by means of polynomial regression analysis, several models that relate the diffuse fraction of the global radiation (K{sub d}) with the clearness index (K{sub t}). The experiment was conducted in the Solar Radiometry Station of Cascavel/PR from the first of January to the 31st of December, in the year of 2001. The solar radiation components were monitored by the following manufactured instruments: pyranometer (KIPP and ZONEN CM3) and pirheliometer (EPPLEY NIP) connected in a sun tracker (ST-1 model). A datalogger CR10X from the CAMPBELL SCIENTIFIC was used in the data acquisition. This datalogger was programmed in the frequency of 1 Hz storing an average of 5 minutes of collected data. Among the equations the best values of RMSE an MBE were find in the fourth and third degrees, respectively. We also find that the fourth degree polynomial equation (K{sub d}=1,172-1,001K{sub t}+3,992K{sub t}{sup 2}-11,742K{sub t}{sup 3}+7,698K{sub t}{sup 4}) generalizes the utilization of equations for diffuse solar radiation estimation. This means that this equation probably can be applied for any place and climatic conditions. (author)

  5. Towards a publicly available, map-based regional software tool to estimate unregulated daily streamflow at ungauged rivers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Archfield

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Streamflow information is critical for addressing any number of hydrologic problems. Often, streamflow information is needed at locations that are ungauged and, therefore, have no observations on which to base water management decisions. Furthermore, there has been increasing need for daily streamflow time series to manage rivers for both human and ecological functions. To facilitate negotiation between human and ecological demands for water, this paper presents the first publicly available, map-based, regional software tool to estimate historical, unregulated, daily streamflow time series (streamflow not affected by human alteration such as dams or water withdrawals at any user-selected ungauged river location. The map interface allows users to locate and click on a river location, which then links to a spreadsheet-based program that computes estimates of daily streamflow for the river location selected. For a demonstration region in the northeast United States, daily streamflow was, in general, shown to be reliably estimated by the software tool. Estimating the highest and lowest streamflows that occurred in the demonstration region over the period from 1960 through 2004 also was accomplished but with more difficulty and limitations. The software tool provides a general framework that can be applied to other regions for which daily streamflow estimates are needed.

  6. Towards a publicly available, map-based regional software tool to estimate unregulated daily streamflow at ungauged rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Archfield, Stacey A.; Steeves, Peter A.; Guthrie, John D.; Ries, Kernell G.

    2013-01-01

    Streamflow information is critical for addressing any number of hydrologic problems. Often, streamflow information is needed at locations that are ungauged and, therefore, have no observations on which to base water management decisions. Furthermore, there has been increasing need for daily streamflow time series to manage rivers for both human and ecological functions. To facilitate negotiation between human and ecological demands for water, this paper presents the first publicly available, map-based, regional software tool to estimate historical, unregulated, daily streamflow time series (streamflow not affected by human alteration such as dams or water withdrawals) at any user-selected ungauged river location. The map interface allows users to locate and click on a river location, which then links to a spreadsheet-based program that computes estimates of daily streamflow for the river location selected. For a demonstration region in the northeast United States, daily streamflow was, in general, shown to be reliably estimated by the software tool. Estimating the highest and lowest streamflows that occurred in the demonstration region over the period from 1960 through 2004 also was accomplished but with more difficulty and limitations. The software tool provides a general framework that can be applied to other regions for which daily streamflow estimates are needed.

  7. A regressive methodology for estimating missing data in rainfall daily time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barca, E.; Passarella, G.

    2009-04-01

    the multivariate approach. Another approach follows the paradigm of the "multiple imputation" (Rubin, 1987; Rubin, 1988), which consists in using a set of "similar stations" instead than the most similar. This way, a sort of estimation range can be determined allowing the introduction of uncertainty. Finally, time series can be grouped on the basis of monthly rainfall rates defining classes of wetness (i.e.: dry, moderately rainy and rainy), in order to achieve the estimation using homogeneous data subsets. We expect that integrating the methodology with these enhancements will certainly improve its reliability. The methodology was applied to the daily rainfall time series data registered in the Candelaro River Basin (Apulia - South Italy) from 1970 to 2001. REFERENCES D.B., Rubin, 1976. Inference and Missing Data. Biometrika 63 581-592 D.B. Rubin, 1987. Multiple Imputation for Nonresponce in Surveys, New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. D.B. Rubin, 1988. An overview of multiple imputation. In Survey Research Section, pp. 79-84, American Statistical Association, 1988. J.L., Schafer, 1997. Analysis of Incomplete Multivariate Data, Chapman & Hall. J., Scheffer, 2002. Dealing with Missing Data. Res. Lett. Inf. Math. Sci. 3, 153-160. Available online at http://www.massey.ac.nz/~wwiims/research/letters/ H. Theil, 1950. A rank-invariant method of linear and polynomial regression analysis. Indicationes Mathematicae, 12, pp.85-91.

  8. Physical activity patterns and estimated daily energy expenditures in normal and overweight tunisian schoolchildren.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zarrouk, Fayçal; Bouhlel, Ezdine; Feki, Youssef; Amri, Mohamed; Shephard, Roy J

    2009-01-01

    Our aim was to test the normality of physical activity patterns and energy expenditures in normal weight and overweight primary school students. Heart rate estimates of total daily energy expenditure (TEE), active energy expenditure (AEE), and activity patterns were made over 3 consecutive school days in healthy middle-class Tunisian children (46 boys, 44 girls, median age (25(th)-75(th)) percentile, 9.2 (8.8-9.9) years. Our cross-section included 52 students with a normal body mass index (BMI) and 38 who exceeded age-specific BMI limits. TEE, AEE and overall physical activity level (PAL) were not different between overweight children and those with a normal BMI [median values (25(th)-75(th)) 9.20 (8.20-9.84) vs. 8.88 (7.42-9.76) MJ/d; 3.56 (2.59-4.22) vs. 3.85 (2.77-4.78) MJ/d and 1.74 (1.54-2.04) vs. 1.89 (1.66-2.15) respectively]. Physical activity intensities (PAI) were expressed as percentages of the individual's heart rate reserve (%HRR). The median PAI for the entire day (PAI24) and for the waking part of day (PAIw) were lower in overweight than in normal weight individuals [16.3 (14.2-18.9) vs. 20.6 (17.9-22.3) %HRR, p spend more time in moderate activity and less time in sedentary pursuits than overweight children.

  9. Estimation of wind and solar resources in Mali

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Badger, J.; Kamissoko, F.; Olander Rasmussen, M.; Larsen, Soeren; Guidon, N.; Boye Hansen, L.; Dewilde, L.; Alhousseini, M.; Noergaard, P.; Nygaard, I.

    2012-11-15

    The wind resource has been estimated for all of Mali at 7.5 km resolution using the KAMM/WAsP numerical wind atlas methodology. Three domains were used to cover entire country and three sets of wind classes used to capture change in large scale forcing over country. The final output includes generalized climate statistics for any location in Mali, giving wind direction and wind speed distribution. The modelled generalized climate statistics can be used directly in the WAsP software. The preliminary results show a wind resource, which is relatively low, but which under certain conditions may be economically feasible, i.e. at favourably exposed sites, giving enhanced winds, and where practical utilization is possible, given consideration to grid connection or replacement or augmentation of diesel-based electricity systems. The solar energy resource for Mali was assessed for the period between July 2008 and June 2011 using a remote sensing based estimate of the down-welling surface shortwave flux. The remote sensing estimates were adjusted on a month-by-month basis to account for seasonal differences between the remote sensing estimates and in situ data. Calibration was found to improve the coefficient of determination as well as decreasing the mean error both for the calibration and validation data. Compared to the results presented in the ''Renewable energy resources in Mali - preliminary mapping''-report that showed a tendency for underestimation compared to data from the NASA PPOWER/SSE database, the presented results show a very good agreement with the in situ data (after calibration) with no significant bias. Unfortunately, the NASA-database only contains data up until 2005, so a similar comparison could not be done for the time period analyzed in this study, although the agreement with the historic NASA data is still useful as reference. (LN)

  10. An empirical model for estimating solar radiation in the Algerian Sahara

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benatiallah, Djelloul; Benatiallah, Ali; Bouchouicha, Kada; Hamouda, Messaoud; Nasri, Bahous

    2018-05-01

    The present work aims to determine the empirical model R.sun that will allow us to evaluate the solar radiation flues on a horizontal plane and in clear-sky on the located Adrar city (27°18 N and 0°11 W) of Algeria and compare with the results measured at the localized site. The expected results of this comparison are of importance for the investment study of solar systems (solar power plants for electricity production, CSP) and also for the design and performance analysis of any system using the solar energy. Statistical indicators used to evaluate the accuracy of the model where the mean bias error (MBE), root mean square error (RMSE) and coefficient of determination. The results show that for global radiation, the daily correlation coefficient is 0.9984. The mean absolute percentage error is 9.44 %. The daily mean bias error is -7.94 %. The daily root mean square error is 12.31 %.

  11. Best Practices of Uncertainty Estimation for the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB 1998-2015): Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Habte, Aron M [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sengupta, Manajit [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-12-19

    It is essential to apply a traceable and standard approach to determine the uncertainty of solar resource data. Solar resource data are used for all phases of solar energy conversion projects, from the conceptual phase to routine solar power plant operation, and to determine performance guarantees of solar energy conversion systems. These guarantees are based on the available solar resource derived from a measurement station or modeled data set such as the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB). Therefore, quantifying the uncertainty of these data sets provides confidence to financiers, developers, and site operators of solar energy conversion systems and ultimately reduces deployment costs. In this study, we implemented the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) 1 to quantify the overall uncertainty of the NSRDB data. First, we start with quantifying measurement uncertainty, then we determine each uncertainty statistic of the NSRDB data, and we combine them using the root-sum-of-the-squares method. The statistics were derived by comparing the NSRDB data to the seven measurement stations from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Surface Radiation Budget Network, National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Solar Radiation Research Laboratory, and the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program's Southern Great Plains Central Facility, in Billings, Oklahoma. The evaluation was conducted for hourly values, daily totals, monthly mean daily totals, and annual mean monthly mean daily totals. Varying time averages assist to capture the temporal uncertainty of the specific modeled solar resource data required for each phase of a solar energy project; some phases require higher temporal resolution than others. Overall, by including the uncertainty of measurements of solar radiation made at ground stations, bias, and root mean square error, the NSRDB data demonstrated expanded uncertainty of 17 percent - 29 percent on hourly

  12. Estimation of Daily Air Temperature Based on MODIS Land Surface Temperature Products over the Corn Belt in the US

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linglin Zeng

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Air temperature (Ta is a key input in a wide range of agroclimatic applications. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS Ts (Land Surface Temperature (LST products are widely used to estimate daily Ta. However, only daytime LST (Ts-day or nighttime LST (Ts-night data have been used to estimate Tmax/Tmin (daily maximum or minimum air temperature, respectively. The relationship between Tmax and Ts-night, and the one between Tmin and Ts-day has not been studied. In this study, both the ability of Ts-night data to estimate Tmax and the ability of Ts-day data to estimate Tmin were tested and studied in the Corn Belt during the growing season (May–September from 2008 to 2012, using MODIS daily LST products from both Terra and Aqua. The results show that using Ts-night for estimating Tmax could result in a higher accuracy than using Ts-day for a similar estimate. Combining Ts-day and Ts-night, the estimation of Tmax was improved by 0.19–1.85, 0.37–1.12 and 0.26–0.93 °C for crops, deciduous forest and developed areas, respectively, when compared with using only Ts-day or Ts-night data. The main factors influencing the Ta estimation errors spatially and temporally were analyzed and discussed, such as satellite overpassing time, air masses, irrigation, etc.

  13. Analysis of a resistance-energy balance method for estimating daily evaporation from wheat plots using one-time-of-day infrared temperature observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choudhury, B. J.; Idso, S. B.; Reginato, R. J.

    1986-01-01

    Accurate estimates of evaporation over field-scale or larger areas are needed in hydrologic studies, irrigation scheduling, and meteorology. Remotely sensed surface temperature might be used in a model to calculate evaporation. A resistance-energy balance model, which combines an energy balance equation, the Penman-Monteith (1981) evaporation equation, and van den Honert's (1948) equation for water extraction by plant roots, is analyzed for estimating daily evaporation from wheat using postnoon canopy temperature measurements. Additional data requirements are half-hourly averages of solar radiation, air and dew point temperatures, and wind speed, along with reasonable estimates of canopy emissivity, albedo, height, and leaf area index. Evaporation fluxes were measured in the field by precision weighing lysimeters for well-watered and water-stressed wheat. Errors in computed daily evaporation were generally less than 10 percent, while errors in cumulative evaporation for 10 clear sky days were less than 5 percent for both well-watered and water-stressed wheat. Some results from sensitivity analysis of the model are also given.

  14. Technical and economic assessment of solar hybrid repowering: conceptual design and cost estimate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1978-09-01

    This volume contains the appendix to the conceptual design and cost estimate report on solar repowering the Reeves Unit No. 2 power plant in Albuquerque, New Mexico. Included are the engineering drawings and the work breakdown structure estimate report. (WHK)

  15. Daily heat storage for a concentrating solar cooker; Tages-Hitzespeicher fuer einen konzentrierenden Solarkocher

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goetz, M.

    2002-07-01

    This report for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) describes a project that concerned the development and testing of two storage heating elements for automatic parabolic solar cookers. The first variant is made of solid aluminium and stores sensible heat; the second one is filled with tin and uses the latent heat of the solid-liquid phase-change of the tin as well as the storage of sensible heat, too. Various materials for use in heat storage - metals and salts - were examined. Tin was finally chosen for further experiments. The author concludes that the storage units work well, whereby the tin variant was more flexible for changing-weather conditions because of its latent heat storage. Because of their weight, however, the mobile use of the units is restricted. Suggestions for further development are made, including the integration of the units in the bases of solar cookers and the simplification of their construction. The article also reviews the development and application of concentrating-mirror solar cooking systems in India, where large-scale use can be found.

  16. Solar Irradiance Measurements Using Smart Devices: A Cost-Effective Technique for Estimation of Solar Irradiance for Sustainable Energy Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hussein Al-Taani

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Solar irradiance measurement is a key component in estimating solar irradiation, which is necessary and essential to design sustainable energy systems such as photovoltaic (PV systems. The measurement is typically done with sophisticated devices designed for this purpose. In this paper we propose a smartphone-aided setup to estimate the solar irradiance in a certain location. The setup is accessible, easy to use and cost-effective. The method we propose does not have the accuracy of an irradiance meter of high precision but has the advantage of being readily accessible on any smartphone. It could serve as a quick tool to estimate irradiance measurements in the preliminary stages of PV systems design. Furthermore, it could act as a cost-effective educational tool in sustainable energy courses where understanding solar radiation variations is an important aspect.

  17. Solar and Net Radiation for Estimating Potential Evaporation from Three Vegetation Canopies

    Science.gov (United States)

    D.M. Amatya; R.W. Skaggs; G.W. Cheschier; G.P. Fernandez

    2000-01-01

    Solar and net radiation data are frequent/y used in estimating potential evaporation (PE) from various vegetative surfaces needed for water balance and hydrologic modeling studies. Weather parameters such as air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, solar radiation, and net radiation have been continuously monitored using automated sensors to estimate PE for...

  18. Estimation of rectal dose using daily megavoltage cone-beam computed tomography and deformable image registration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akino, Yuichi; Yoshioka, Yasuo; Fukuda, Shoichi; Maruoka, Shintaroh; Takahashi, Yutaka; Yagi, Masashi; Mizuno, Hirokazu; Isohashi, Fumiaki; Ogawa, Kazuhiko

    2013-11-01

    The actual dose delivered to critical organs will differ from the simulated dose because of interfractional organ motion and deformation. Here, we developed a method to estimate the rectal dose in prostate intensity modulated radiation therapy with consideration to interfractional organ motion using daily megavoltage cone-beam computed tomography (MVCBCT). Under exemption status from our institutional review board, we retrospectively reviewed 231 series of MVCBCT of 8 patients with prostate cancer. On both planning CT (pCT) and MVCBCT images, the rectal contours were delineated and the CT value within the contours was replaced by the mean CT value within the pelvis, with the addition of 100 Hounsfield units. MVCBCT images were rigidly registered to pCT and then nonrigidly registered using B-Spline deformable image registration (DIR) with Velocity AI software. The concordance between the rectal contours on MVCBCT and pCT was evaluated using the Dice similarity coefficient (DSC). The dose distributions normalized for 1 fraction were also deformed and summed to estimate the actual total dose. The DSC of all treatment fractions of 8 patients was improved from 0.75±0.04 (mean ±SD) to 0.90 ±0.02 by DIR. Six patients showed a decrease of the generalized equivalent uniform dose (gEUD) from total dose compared with treatment plans. Although the rectal volume of each treatment fraction did not show any correlation with the change in gEUD (R(2)=0.18±0.13), the displacement of the center of gravity of rectal contours in the anterior-posterior (AP) direction showed an intermediate relationship (R(2)=0.61±0.16). We developed a method for evaluation of rectal dose using DIR and MVCBCT images and showed the necessity of DIR for the evaluation of total dose. Displacement of the rectum in the AP direction showed a greater effect on the change in rectal dose compared with the rectal volume. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Estimation of Rectal Dose Using Daily Megavoltage Cone-Beam Computed Tomography and Deformable Image Registration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Akino, Yuichi, E-mail: akino@radonc.med.osaka-u.ac.jp [Department of Radiation Oncology, Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine, Suita, Osaka (Japan); Department of Radiology, Osaka University Hospital, Suita, Osaka (Japan); Yoshioka, Yasuo [Department of Radiation Oncology, Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine, Suita, Osaka (Japan); Fukuda, Shoichi [Department of Radiation Oncology, Osaka General Medical Center, Osaka (Japan); Maruoka, Shintaroh [Department of Radiation Oncology, Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine, Suita, Osaka (Japan); Takahashi, Yutaka [Department of Radiation Oncology, Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine, Suita, Osaka (Japan); Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota (United States); Yagi, Masashi [Department of Radiation Oncology, Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine, Suita, Osaka (Japan); Mizuno, Hirokazu [Department of Radiology, Osaka University Hospital, Suita, Osaka (Japan); Isohashi, Fumiaki [Oncology Center, Osaka University Hospital, Suita, Osaka (Japan); Ogawa, Kazuhiko [Department of Radiation Oncology, Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine, Suita, Osaka (Japan)

    2013-11-01

    Purpose: The actual dose delivered to critical organs will differ from the simulated dose because of interfractional organ motion and deformation. Here, we developed a method to estimate the rectal dose in prostate intensity modulated radiation therapy with consideration to interfractional organ motion using daily megavoltage cone-beam computed tomography (MVCBCT). Methods and Materials: Under exemption status from our institutional review board, we retrospectively reviewed 231 series of MVCBCT of 8 patients with prostate cancer. On both planning CT (pCT) and MVCBCT images, the rectal contours were delineated and the CT value within the contours was replaced by the mean CT value within the pelvis, with the addition of 100 Hounsfield units. MVCBCT images were rigidly registered to pCT and then nonrigidly registered using B-Spline deformable image registration (DIR) with Velocity AI software. The concordance between the rectal contours on MVCBCT and pCT was evaluated using the Dice similarity coefficient (DSC). The dose distributions normalized for 1 fraction were also deformed and summed to estimate the actual total dose. Results: The DSC of all treatment fractions of 8 patients was improved from 0.75±0.04 (mean ±SD) to 0.90 ±0.02 by DIR. Six patients showed a decrease of the generalized equivalent uniform dose (gEUD) from total dose compared with treatment plans. Although the rectal volume of each treatment fraction did not show any correlation with the change in gEUD (R{sup 2}=0.18±0.13), the displacement of the center of gravity of rectal contours in the anterior-posterior (AP) direction showed an intermediate relationship (R{sup 2}=0.61±0.16). Conclusion: We developed a method for evaluation of rectal dose using DIR and MVCBCT images and showed the necessity of DIR for the evaluation of total dose. Displacement of the rectum in the AP direction showed a greater effect on the change in rectal dose compared with the rectal volume.

  20. Using high-resolution satellite aerosol optical depth to estimate daily PM2.5 geographical distribution in Mexico City

    OpenAIRE

    Just, Allan C.; Wright, Robert O.; Schwartz, Joel; Coull, Brent A.; Baccarelli, Andrea A.; Tellez-Rojo, Martha María; Moody, Emily; Wang, Yujie; Lyapustin, Alexei; Kloog, Itai

    2015-01-01

    Recent advances in estimating fine particle (PM2.5) ambient concentrations use daily satellite measurements of aerosol optical depth (AOD) for spatially and temporally resolved exposure estimates. Mexico City is a dense megacity that differs from other previously modeled regions in several ways: it has bright land surfaces, a distinctive climatological cycle, and an elevated semi-enclosed air basin with a unique planetary boundary layer dynamic. We extend our previous satellite methodology to...

  1. Estimation of daily protein intake based on spot urine urea nitrogen concentration in chronic kidney disease patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanno, Hiroko; Kanda, Eiichiro; Sato, Asako; Sakamoto, Kaori; Kanno, Yoshihiko

    2016-04-01

    Determination of daily protein intake in the management of chronic kidney disease (CKD) requires precision. Inaccuracies in recording dietary intake occur, and estimation from total urea excretion presents hurdles owing to the difficulty of collecting whole urine for 24 h. Spot urine has been used for measuring daily sodium intake and urinary protein excretion. In this cross-sectional study, we investigated whether urea nitrogen (UN) concentration in spot urine can be used to predict daily protein intake instead of the 24-h urine collection in 193 Japanese CKD patients (Stages G1-G5). After patient randomization into 2 datasets for the development and validation of models, bootstrapping was used to develop protein intake estimation models. The parameters for the candidate multivariate regression models were male gender, age, body mass index (BMI), diabetes mellitus, dyslipidemia, proteinuria, estimated glomerular filtration rate, serum albumin level, spot urinary UN and creatinine level, and spot urinary UN/creatinine levels. The final model contained BMI and spot urinary UN level. The final model was selected because of the higher correlation between the predicted and measured protein intakes r = 0.558 (95 % confidence interval 0.400, 0.683), and the smaller distribution of the difference between the measured and predicted protein intakes than those of the other models. The results suggest that UN concentration in spot urine may be used to estimate daily protein intake and that a prediction formula would be useful for nutritional control in CKD patients.

  2. Estimation of unaltered daily mean streamflow at ungaged streams of New York, excluding Long Island, water years 1961-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gazoorian, Christopher L.

    2015-01-01

    The lakes, rivers, and streams of New York State provide an essential water resource for the State. The information provided by time series hydrologic data is essential to understanding ways to promote healthy instream ecology and to strengthen the scientific basis for sound water management decision making in New York. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with The Nature Conservancy and the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority, has developed the New York Streamflow Estimation Tool to estimate a daily mean hydrograph for the period from October 1, 1960, to September 30, 2010, at ungaged locations across the State. The New York Streamflow Estimation Tool produces a complete estimated daily mean time series from which daily flow statistics can be estimated. In addition, the New York Streamflow Estimation Tool provides a means for quantitative flow assessments at ungaged locations that can be used to address the objectives of the Clean Water Act—to restore and maintain the chemical, physical, and biological integrity of the Nation’s waters.

  3. SAFARI 2000 Daily Rainfall Estimates, 0.1-Deg, Southern Africa, 1993-2001

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: The Microwave InfraRed Algorithm (MIRA) is used to produce an imagery data set of daily mean rain rates at 0.1 degree spatial resolution over southern...

  4. Estimation of Solar Radiation using Artificial Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Slamet Suprayogi

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The solar radiation is the most important fator affeccting evapotranspiration, the mechanism of transporting the vapor from the water surface has also a great effect. The main objectives of this study were to investigate the potential of using Artificial Neural Network (ANN to predict solar radiation related to temperature. The three-layer backpropagation were developed, trained, and tested to forecast solar radiation for Ciriung sub Cachment. Result revealed that the ANN were able to well learn the events they were trained to recognize. Moreover, they were capable of effecctively generalize their training by predicting solar radiation for sets unseen cases.

  5. Estimation of monthly solar exposure on horizontal surface by Angstrom-type regression equation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ravanshid, S.H.

    1981-01-01

    To obtain solar flux intensity, solar radiation measuring instruments are the best. In the absence of instrumental data there are other meteorological measurements which are related to solar energy and also it is possible to use empirical relationships to estimate solar flux intensit. One of these empirical relationships to estimate monthly averages of total solar radiation on a horizontal surface is the modified angstrom-type regression equation which has been employed in this report in order to estimate the solar flux intensity on a horizontal surface for Tehran. By comparing the results of this equation with four years measured valued by Tehran's meteorological weather station the values of meteorological constants (a,b) in the equation were obtained for Tehran. (author)

  6. Topographic effects on solar radiation distribution in mountainous watersheds and their influence on reference evapotranspiration estimates at watershed scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Aguilar

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Distributed energy and water balance models require time-series surfaces of the climatological variables involved in hydrological processes. Among them, solar radiation constitutes a key variable to the circulation of water in the atmosphere. Most of the hydrological GIS-based models apply simple interpolation techniques to data measured at few weather stations disregarding topographic effects. Here, a topographic solar radiation algorithm has been included for the generation of detailed time-series solar radiation surfaces using limited data and simple methods in a mountainous watershed in southern Spain. The results show the major role of topography in local values and differences between the topographic approximation and the direct interpolation to measured data (IDW of up to +42% and −1800% in the estimated daily values. Also, the comparison of the predicted values with experimental data proves the usefulness of the algorithm for the estimation of spatially-distributed radiation values in a complex terrain, with a good fit for daily values (R2 = 0.93 and the best fits under cloudless skies at hourly time steps. Finally, evapotranspiration fields estimated through the ASCE-Penman-Monteith equation using both corrected and non-corrected radiation values address the hydrologic importance of using topographically-corrected solar radiation fields as inputs to the equation over uniform values with mean differences in the watershed of 61 mm/year and 142 mm/year of standard deviation. High speed computations in a 1300 km2 watershed in the south of Spain with up to a one-hour time scale in 30 × 30 m2 cells can be easily carried out on a desktop PC.

  7. The use of a sky camera for solar radiation estimation based on digital image processing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alonso-Montesinos, J.; Batlles, F.J.

    2015-01-01

    The necessary search for a more sustainable global future means using renewable energy sources to generate pollutant-free electricity. CSP (Concentrated solar power) and PV (photovoltaic) plants are the systems most in demand for electricity production using solar radiation as the energy source. The main factors affecting final electricity generation in these plants are, among others, atmospheric conditions; therefore, knowing whether there will be any change in the solar radiation hitting the plant's solar field is of fundamental importance to CSP and PV plant operators in adapting the plant's operation mode to these fluctuations. Consequently, the most useful technology must involve the study of atmospheric conditions. This is the case for sky cameras, an emerging technology that allows one to gather sky information with optimal spatial and temporal resolution. Hence, in this work, a solar radiation estimation using sky camera images is presented for all sky conditions, where beam, diffuse and global solar radiation components are estimated in real-time as a novel way to evaluate the solar resource from a terrestrial viewpoint. - Highlights: • Using a sky camera, the solar resource has been estimated for one minute periods. • The sky images have been processed to estimate the solar radiation at pixel level. • The three radiation components have been estimated under all sky conditions. • Results have been presented for cloudless, partially-cloudy and overcast conditions. • For beam and global radiation, the nRMSE value is of about 11% under overcast skies.

  8. Estimating capacity of solar thermoelectric generator (STEG) panels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kokhova, I.I.; Malevskii, Yu.N.; Tsvetkov, A.I.

    1979-01-01

    Energy characteristics of a solar thermoelectric generator (STEG) panel without solar-flux concentration are considered. The design of such devices is no simple task. Several fully justified assumptions have been introduced in an attempt to obtain a solution convenient for engineering calculations

  9. ARIMA representation for daily solar irradiance and surface air temperature time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kärner, Olavi

    2009-06-01

    Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models are used to compare long-range temporal variability of the total solar irradiance (TSI) at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and surface air temperature series. The comparison shows that one and the same type of the model is applicable to represent the TSI and air temperature series. In terms of the model type surface air temperature imitates closely that for the TSI. This may mean that currently no other forcing to the climate system is capable to change the random walk type variability established by the varying activity of the rotating Sun. The result should inspire more detailed examination of the dependence of various climate series on short-range fluctuations of TSI.

  10. The Impact of the Processing Batch Length in GNSS Data Analysis on the Estimates of Earth Rotation Parameters with Daily and Subdaily Time Resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meindl, M.; Dach, R.; Thaller, D.; Schaer, S.; Beutler, G.; Jaeggi, A.

    2012-04-01

    Microwave observations from GNSS are traditionally analyzed in the post-processing mode using (solar) daily data batches. The 24-hour session length differs by only about four minutes from two revolution periods of a GPS satellite (corresponding to one sidereal day). The deep 2:1 resonance of the GPS revolution period with the length of the sidereal day may cause systematic effects in parameter estimates and spurious periodic signals in the resulting parameter time series. The selection of other (than daily) session lengths may help to identify systematic effects and to study their impact on GNSS-derived products. Such investigations are of great interest in a combined multi-GNSS analysis because of substantial differences in the satellites' revolution periods. Three years (2008-2010) of data from a global network of about 90 combined GPS/GLONASS receivers have been analyzed. Four different session lengths were used, namely the traditional 24 hours (UTC), two revolutions of a GLONASS satellite (16/17 sidereal days), two revolutions of a GPS satellite (one sidereal day), and a session length of 18/17 sidereal days, which does not correspond to either two GPS or two GLONASS revolution periods. GPS-only, GLONASS-only, and GPS/GLONASS-combined solution are established for each of the session lengths. Special care was taken to keep the GPS and GLONASS solutions fully consistent and comparable in particular where the station selection is concerned. We generate ERPs with a subdaily time resolution of about 1.4 hours (1/17 sidereal day). Using the session-specific normal equation systems (NEQs) containing the Earth rotation parameters with the 1.4 hours time resolution we derive in addition ERPs with a (sidereal) daily resolution. Note that this step requires the combination of the daily NEQs and a subsequent re-binning of 17 consecutive ERPs with 1/17 day time resolution into one (sidereal) daily parameter. These tests will reveal the impact of the session length on ERP

  11. Estimate of annual daily maximum rainfall and intense rain equation for the Formiga municipality, MG, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovana Mara Rodrigues Borges

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge of the probabilistic behavior of rainfall is extremely important to the design of drainage systems, dam spillways, and other hydraulic projects. This study therefore examined statistical models to predict annual daily maximum rainfall as well as models of heavy rain for the city of Formiga - MG. To do this, annual maximum daily rainfall data were ranked in decreasing order that best describes the statistical distribution by exceedance probability. Daily rainfall disaggregation methodology was used for the intense rain model studies and adjusted with Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF and Exponential models. The study found that the Gumbel model better adhered to the data regarding observed frequency as indicated by the Chi-squared test, and that the exponential model best conforms to the observed data to predict intense rains.

  12. Estimation solar irradiance maps in Extremadura (Spain) by means of meteorological parameters; Mapas de radiacion solar de Extremadura estimada a partir de otros parametros meteorologicos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramiro, A.; Nunez, M.; Reyes, J. J.; Gonzalez, J. F.; Sabio, E.; Gonzalez-Garcia, C. M.; Ganan, J.; Roman, S.

    2004-07-01

    In a previous work, we have found correlation expressions that permit to estimate the mean monthly values of daily diffuse and direct solar irradiation on a horizontal surface in function of some weather parameters. In this work, the incident radiation on a horizontal surface has been estimated in thirty zones of Extremadura by means of weather data from existing stations located in these zones and its orography. The weather data used have been the monthly average values of the highest temperatures and the sunshine fraction. These monthly average values have been obtained from measurements carried out in the weather stations during the period 1985-2002. The results are presented as interactive maps in Arc view language, associated to a conventional data base. (Author)

  13. Estimating Monthly Solar Radiation in South-Central Chile Estimación de Radiación Solar Mensual en la Zona Centro Sur de Chile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Álvarez

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Solar radiation is a key component in process-based models. The amount of this energy depends on the location, time of the year, and atmospheric conditions. Several equations and models have been developed for different conditions using historical data from weather station networks or satellite measurements. However, solar radiation estimates are too local since they rely on weather stations or have a resolution that is too coarse when working with satellites. In this study, we estimated monthly global solar radiation for the south-central region of Chile using the r.sun model and validated it with observations from automatic weather stations. We analyzed the performance of global radiation results with the Hargreaves-Samani (HS and Bristow-Campbell (BC models. Estimates from a calibrated rsun model accounted for 89% of the variance (r² = 0.89 in monthly mean values for 15 locations in the research area. The model performed very well for a wide area and conditions in Chile when we compared it with the HS and BC models. Our estimates of global solar radiation using the rsun model could be improved through calibration of ground measurements and more precise cloudiness estimates as they become available. With additional procedures, the rsun model could be used to provide spatial estimates of daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly solar radiation.La radiación solar es un componente clave en los modelos basados en procesos. La cantidad de esta energía depende de la ubicación, época del año, y también de las condiciones atmosféricas. Varias ecuaciones y modelos han sido desarrollados para diferentes condiciones, utilizando datos históricos de las redes de estaciones meteorológicas o de las mediciones por satélite. Sin embargo, las estimaciones de la radiación solar son demasiado locales con estaciones meteorológicas, o con una resolución muy gruesa cuando se trabaja con satélites. En el presente estudio se estimó radiación solar global

  14. A new hybrid support vector machine–wavelet transform approach for estimation of horizontal global solar radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohammadi, Kasra; Shamshirband, Shahaboddin; Tong, Chong Wen; Arif, Muhammad; Petković, Dalibor; Ch, Sudheer

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Horizontal global solar radiation (HGSR) is predicted based on a new hybrid approach. • Support Vector Machines and Wavelet Transform algorithm (SVM–WT) are combined. • Different sets of meteorological elements are used to predict HGSR. • The precision of SVM–WT is assessed thoroughly against ANN, GP and ARMA. • SVM–WT would be an appealing approach to predict HGSR and outperforms others. - Abstract: In this paper, a new hybrid approach by combining the Support Vector Machine (SVM) with Wavelet Transform (WT) algorithm is developed to predict horizontal global solar radiation. The predictions are conducted on both daily and monthly mean scales for an Iranian coastal city. The proposed SVM–WT method is compared against other existing techniques to demonstrate its efficiency and viability. Three different sets of parameters are served as inputs to establish three models. The results indicate that the model using relative sunshine duration, difference between air temperatures, relative humidity, average temperature and extraterrestrial solar radiation as inputs shows higher performance than other models. The statistical analysis demonstrates that SVM–WT approach enjoys very good performance and outperforms other approaches. For the best SVM–WT model, the obtained statistical indicators of mean absolute percentage error, mean absolute bias error, root mean square error, relative root mean square error and coefficient of determination for daily estimation are 6.9996%, 0.8405 MJ/m 2 , 1.4245 MJ/m 2 , 7.9467% and 0.9086, respectively. Also, for monthly mean estimation the values are 3.2601%, 0.5104 MJ/m 2 , 0.6618 MJ/m 2 , 3.6935% and 0.9742, respectively. Based upon relative percentage error, for the best SVM–WT model, 88.70% of daily predictions fall within the acceptable range of −10% to +10%

  15. The impact of the mode of survey administration on estimates of daily smoking for mobile phone only users

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph Hanna

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Over the past decade, there have been substantial changes in landline and mobile phone ownership, with a substantial increase in the proportion of mobile-only households. Estimates of daily smoking rates for the mobile phone only (MPO population have been found to be substantially higher than the rest of the population and telephone surveys that use a dual sampling frame (landline and mobile phones are now considered best practice. Smoking is seen as an undesirable behaviour; measuring such behaviours using an interviewer may lead to lower estimates when using telephone based surveys compared to self-administered approaches. This study aims to assess whether higher daily smoking estimates observed for the mobile phone only population can be explained by administrative features of surveys, after accounting for differences in the phone ownership population groups. Methods Data on New South Wales (NSW residents aged 18 years or older from the NSW Population Health Survey (PHS, a telephone survey, and the National Drug Strategy Household Survey (NDSHS, a self-administered survey, were combined, with weights adjusted to match the 2013 population. Design-adjusted prevalence estimates and odds ratios were calculated using survey analysis procedures available in SAS 9.4. Results Both the PHS and NDSHS gave the same estimates for daily smoking (12% and similar estimates for MPO users (20% and 18% respectively. Pooled data showed that daily smoking was 19% for MPO users, compared to 10% for dual phone owners, and 12% for landline phone only users. Prevalence estimates for MPO users across both surveys were consistently higher than other phone ownership groups. Differences in estimates for the MPO population compared to other phone ownership groups persisted even after adjustment for the mode of collection and demographic factors. Conclusions Daily smoking rates were consistently higher for the mobile phone only population and this was

  16. On-farm welfare and estimated daily carcass gain of slaughtered bulls

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Herva, T.; Virtala, A.M.; Huuskonen, A.; Saatkamp, H.W.; Peltoniemi, O.

    2009-01-01

    Welfare of growing bulls was evaluated using on-farm scoring modified by well-described test theory methods. Production parameters of the bulls were collected at slaughter. A positive relationship was observed between on-farm welfare, using the full A-Index score, and daily carcass gain of bulls.

  17. Estimating Solar Energy Potential in Buildings on a Global Level

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petrichenko, Ksenia

    2015-01-01

    This chapter contributes to the debate around net-zero energy concept from a global perspective. By means of comprehensive modelling, it analyses how much global building energy consumption could be reduced through utilisation of building-integrated solar energy technologies and energy......-efficiency improvements. Valuable insights on the locations and building types, in which it is feasible to achieve a net-zero level of energy performance through solar energy utilisation, are presented in world maps....

  18. Influence of daily setup measurements and corrections on the estimated delivered dose during IMRT treatment of prostate cancer patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haaren, Paul M.A. van; Bel, Arjan; Hofman, Pieter; Vulpen, Marco van; Kotte, Alexis N.T.J.; Heide, Uulke A. van der

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the impact of marker-based position verification, using daily imaging and an off-line correction protocol, by calculating the delivered dose to prostate, rectum and bladder. Methods: Prostate cancer patients (n = 217) were treated with IMRT, receiving 35 daily fractions. Plans with five beams were optimized taking target coverage (CTV, boost) and organs-at-risk (rectum and bladder) into account. PTV margins were 8 mm. Prostate position was verified daily using implanted fiducial gold markers by imaging the first segment of all the five beams on an EPID. Setup deviations were corrected off-line using an adapted shrinking-action-level protocol. The estimated delivered dose, including daily organ movements, was calculated using a version of PLATO's dose engine, enabling batch processing of large numbers of patients. The dose was calculated ± inclusion of setup corrections, and was evaluated relative to the original static plan. The marker-based measurements were considered representative for all organs. Results: Daily organ movements would result in an underdosage of 2-3 Gy to CTV and boost volume relative to the original plan, which was prevented by daily setup corrections. The dose to rectum and bladder was on average unchanged, but a large spread was introduced by organ movements, which was reduced by including setup corrections. Conclusions: Without position verification and setup corrections, margins of 8mm would be insufficient to account for position uncertainties during IMRT of prostate cancer. With the daily off-line correction protocol, the remaining variations are accommodated adequately

  19. Evaluation of sub daily satellite rainfall estimates through flash flood modelling in the Lower Middle Zambezi Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Matingo

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Flash floods are experienced almost annually in the ungauged Mbire District of the Middle Zambezi Basin. Studies related to hydrological modelling (rainfall-runoff and flood forecasting require major inputs such as precipitation which, due to shortage of observed data, are increasingly using indirect methods for estimating precipitation. This study therefore evaluated performance of CMORPH and TRMM satellite rainfall estimates (SREs for 30 min, 1 h, 3 h and daily intensities through hydrologic and flash flood modelling in the Lower Middle Zambezi Basin for the period 2013–2016. On a daily timestep, uncorrected CMORPH and TRMM show Probability of Detection (POD of 61 and 59 %, respectively, when compared to rain gauge observations. The best performance using Correlation Coefficient (CC was 70 and 60 % on daily timesteps for CMORPH and TRMM, respectively. The best RMSE for CMORPH was 0.81 % for 30 min timestep and for TRMM was 2, 11 % on 3 h timestep. For the year 2014 to 2015, the HEC-HMS (Hydrological Engineering Centre-Hydrological Modelling System daily model calibration Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE for Musengezi sub catchment was 59 % whilst for Angwa it was 55 %. Angwa sub-catchment daily NSE results for the period 2015–2016 was 61 %. HEC-RAS flash flood modeling at 100, 50 and 25 year return periods for Angwa sub catchment, inundated 811 and 867 ha for TRMM rainfall simulated discharge at 3 h and daily timesteps, respectively. For CMORPH generated rainfall, the inundation was 818, 876, 890 and 891 ha at daily, 3 h, 1 h and 30 min timesteps. The 30 min time step for CMORPH effectively captures flash floods with the measure of agreement between simulated flood extent and ground control points of 69 %. For TRMM, the 3 h timestep effectively captures flash floods with coefficient of 67 %. The study therefore concludes that satellite products are most effective in capturing localized

  20. Sensitivity of APSIM/ORYZA model due to estimation errors in solar radiation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heinemann, A.B.; Oort, van P.A.J.; Simoes Fernandes, D.; Maia, A.H.N.

    2012-01-01

    Crop models are ideally suited to quantify existing climatic risks. However, they require historic climate data as input. While daily temperature and rainfall data are often available, the lack of observed solar radiation (Rs) data severely limits site-specific crop modelling. The objective of this

  1. Using High-Resolution Satellite Aerosol Optical Depth To Estimate Daily PM2.5 Geographical Distribution in Mexico City.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Just, Allan C; Wright, Robert O; Schwartz, Joel; Coull, Brent A; Baccarelli, Andrea A; Tellez-Rojo, Martha María; Moody, Emily; Wang, Yujie; Lyapustin, Alexei; Kloog, Itai

    2015-07-21

    Recent advances in estimating fine particle (PM2.5) ambient concentrations use daily satellite measurements of aerosol optical depth (AOD) for spatially and temporally resolved exposure estimates. Mexico City is a dense megacity that differs from other previously modeled regions in several ways: it has bright land surfaces, a distinctive climatological cycle, and an elevated semi-enclosed air basin with a unique planetary boundary layer dynamic. We extend our previous satellite methodology to the Mexico City area, a region with higher PM2.5 than most U.S. and European urban areas. Using a novel 1 km resolution AOD product from the MODIS instrument, we constructed daily predictions across the greater Mexico City area for 2004-2014. We calibrated the association of AOD to PM2.5 daily using municipal ground monitors, land use, and meteorological features. Predictions used spatial and temporal smoothing to estimate AOD when satellite data were missing. Our model performed well, resulting in an out-of-sample cross-validation R(2) of 0.724. Cross-validated root-mean-squared prediction error (RMSPE) of the model was 5.55 μg/m(3). This novel model reconstructs long- and short-term spatially resolved exposure to PM2.5 for epidemiological studies in Mexico City.

  2. A mathematical procedure to estimate solar absorptance of shallow water ponds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu Hongbo; Tang Runsheng; Li Zhimin; Zhong Hao

    2009-01-01

    In this article, a mathematical procedure is developed for estimating solar absorption of shallow water ponds with different pond floor based on the fact that the solar radiation trapped inside the water layer undergoes multiplicative reflection and absorption and on that the solar absorption of water is selective. Theoretical model indicates that the solar absorption of a water pond is related to the reflectivity of the pond floor, the solar spectrum and the water depth. To validate the mathematical model, a concrete water pond measuring 3 x 3 x 0.24 m was constructed. Experimental results indicate that solar reflectivity calculated based on the mathematical model proposed in this work were in good agreement with those measured. For water ponds with a water-permeable floor, such as concrete floor, theoretical calculations of the solar absorptance of a water pond should be done based on the reflectivity of full wet floor, whereas for water ponds with a non-water-permeable floor, theoretical calculations should be done based on the fact that solar reflection on the floor is neither perfect specular reflection nor prefect isotropic diffuse reflection. Results of numerical calculation show that theoretical calculations of solar absorption of a water pond by dividing solar spectrum into six bands were pretty agreement with those by dividing solar spectrum into 20 bands.

  3. Effect of Estimated Daily Global Solar Radiation Data on the Results of Crop Growth Models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Trnka, M.; Eitzinger, J.; Kapler, P.; Dubrovský, Martin; Semerádová, Daniela; Žalud, Z.; Formayer, H.

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 7, č. 10 (2007), s. 2330-2362 ISSN 1424-8220 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA205/05/2265 Grant - others:ADAGIO(XE) SSPE-CT-2006-044210 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : crop yields * spring barley * winter wheat * CERES-Barley * CERES-Wheat * WOFOST Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.573, year: 2007 http://www.mdpi.org/sensors/papers/s7102330.pdf

  4. Evaluation of estimated daily intake (EDI) of cadmium and lead for rice (Oryza sativa L.) in calcareous soils.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chamannejadian, Ali; Sayyad, Gholamabbas; Moezzi, Abdolamir; Jahangiri, Alireza

    2013-04-08

    The excessive amounts of cadmium and lead in food chain can cause health problems for humans and ecosystem. Rice is an important food in human diet. Therefore this study was conducted in order to investigate cadmium and Lead concentrations in seed rice (Oryza saliva) of paddy fields in southwest of Iran. A total of 70 rice seed samples were collected from paddy fields in five regions of Khuzestan province, Southwest Iran, during harvesting time. In the samples cadmium and Lead concentrations were measured. To assess the daily intake of Cadmium and Lead by rice, daily consumption of rice was calculated. The results showed that average concentrations of Cadmium and Lead in rice seeds were 273.6 and 121.8 μg/kg, respectively. Less than 72% of rice seed samples had Cadmium concentrations above 200 μg/kg (i.e. Guide value for cadmium); and less than 3% had Lead concentrations above 150 μg/kg (i.e. Guide value for Lead). The estimated daily intakes of cadmium by the local population was calculated to 0.59 μg/day kg bw, which corresponds to 59% of the tolerable daily intakes (i.e. 1 μg/day kg bw). Eleven out of 70 samples (15.71%) exceed the tolerable daily intakes. The dietary intakes for Lead in the local population ranged from 0.22 to 0.47 μg/day kg bw. Tolerable daily intakes for Lead is 3.6 μg/day kg bw. As a whole, long term consumption of the local rice may bear high risk of heavy metal exposure to the consumer in the study region.

  5. Solar Tyrol project: using climate data for energy production estimation. The good practice of Tyrol in conceptualizing climate services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petitta, Marcello; Wagner, Jochen; Costa, Armin; Monsorno, Roberto; Innerebner, Markus; Moser, David; Zebisch, Marc

    2014-05-01

    The scientific community in the last years is largely discussing the concept of "Climate services". Several definitions have been used, but it still remains a rather open concept. We used climate data from analysis and reanalysis to create a daily and hourly model of atmospheric turbidity in order to account the effect of the atmosphere on incoming solar radiation with the final aim of estimating electric production from Photovoltaic (PV) Modules in the Alps. Renewable Energy production in the Alpine Region is dominated by hydroelectricity, but the potential for photovoltaic energy production is gaining momentum. Especially the southern part of the Alps and inner Alpine regions offer good conditions for PV energy production. The combination of high irradiance values and cold air temperature in mountainous regions is well suited for solar cells. To enable more widespread currency of PV plants, PV has to become an important part in regional planning. To provide regional authorities and also private stakeholders with high quality PV energy yield climatology in the provinces of Bolzano/Bozen South Tirol (Italy) and Tyrol (Austria), the research project Solar Tyrol was inaugurated in 2012. Several methods are used to calculate very high resolution maps of solar radiation. Most of these approaches use climatological values. In this project we reconstructed the last 10 years of atmospheric turbidity using reanalysis and operational data in order to better estimate incoming solar radiation in the alpine region. Our method is divided into three steps: i) clear sky radiation: to estimate the atmospheric effect on solar radiation we calculated Linke Turbidity factor using aerosols optical depth (AOD), surface albedo, atmospheric pressure, and total water content from ECMWF and MACC analysis. ii) shadows: we calculated shadows of mountains and buildings using a 2 meter-resolution digital elevation model of the area and GIS module r.sun modified to fit our specific needs. iii

  6. Daily TRMM and Others Rainfall Estimate (3B42 V7 derived) V7

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) is a joint U.S.-Japan satellite mission to monitor tropical and subtropical precipitation and to estimate its...

  7. Daily GPS-Derived Estimates Of Axis Of Rotation Of Earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindqwister, Ulf J.; Blewitt, Geoffrey; Freedman, Adam

    1994-01-01

    Report describes study in which data gathered by worldwide network of 21 Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers during 3-week experiment in January and February 1991 used to estimate location of axis of rotation of Earth.

  8. Selenium content in selected foods from the Greek market and estimation of the daily intake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pappa, Eleni C.; Pappas, Athanasios C.; Surai, Peter F.

    2006-01-01

    The total selenium content of foods purchased from the North West part of Greece was determined using hydride generation atomic fluorescence spectroscopy. The results of this study were within the range from other countries. The overall mean average of selenium concentration of the foods examined, in decreasing order, was found in sesame seeds (783.1 ng g -1 ), fish (246 ng g -1 ), legumes (162.5 ng g -1 ), eggs (123 ng g -1 ), bread (91.9 ng g -1 ), meat (71.7 ng g -1 ), cheese (69.8 ng g -1 ), yoghurt (23.6 ng g -1 ), nuts (19.6 ng g -1 ), milk (15.4 ng g -1 ), vegetables (6.5 ng g -1 ) and fruits (3.4 ng g -1 ). Considering the average daily individual consumption of these foods by Greeks, the average daily dietary intake of selenium supplied by this source is 39.3 μg per capita

  9. Selenium content in selected foods from the Greek market and estimation of the daily intake

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pappa, Eleni C. [National Agricultural Research Foundation, Dairy Research Institute, Katsikas 45221, Ioannina (Greece)]. E-mail: instgala@otenet.gr; Pappas, Athanasios C. [Avian Science Research Centre, Animal Health Group, SAC, Auchincruive, Ayr KA6 5HW (United Kingdom); Surai, Peter F. [Avian Science Research Centre, Animal Health Group, SAC, Auchincruive, Ayr KA6 5HW (United Kingdom); Division of Environmental and Evolutionary Biology, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G12 8QQ, Scotland (United Kingdom)

    2006-12-15

    The total selenium content of foods purchased from the North West part of Greece was determined using hydride generation atomic fluorescence spectroscopy. The results of this study were within the range from other countries. The overall mean average of selenium concentration of the foods examined, in decreasing order, was found in sesame seeds (783.1 ng g{sup -1}), fish (246 ng g{sup -1}), legumes (162.5 ng g{sup -1}), eggs (123 ng g{sup -1}), bread (91.9 ng g{sup -1}), meat (71.7 ng g{sup -1}), cheese (69.8 ng g{sup -1}), yoghurt (23.6 ng g{sup -1}), nuts (19.6 ng g{sup -1}), milk (15.4 ng g{sup -1}), vegetables (6.5 ng g{sup -1}) and fruits (3.4 ng g{sup -1}). Considering the average daily individual consumption of these foods by Greeks, the average daily dietary intake of selenium supplied by this source is 39.3 {mu}g per capita.

  10. Selenium content in wheat and estimation of the selenium daily intake in different regions of Algeria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beladel, B.; Nedjimi, B.; Mansouri, A.; Tahtat, D.; Belamri, M.; Tchanchane, A.; Khelfaoui, F.; Benamar, M.E.A.

    2013-01-01

    In this work, we have measured the selenium content in wheat produced locally in eight different regions of Algeria from east to west, and we have established the annual consumption of selenium for five socio-professional categories. Instrumental neutron activation analysis is used. The selenium levels in wheat samples varied from 21 (Tiaret) to 153 μg/kg (Khroub), with a mean value about 52 μg/kg. The mean of selenium daily consumption from ingestion of wheat per person in the eight regions varied from 32 to 52 μg/day which is close to the minimal FAO recommendation. - Highlights: ► Cereals and cereal products represent a staple food in Algeria. ► The objective of this study is to determine the Se intake in wheat produced locally. ► The concentration of Se in the wheat reflects the level of the Se in regional soils. ► The mean of Se daily consumption is close to the minimal WHO/FAO recommendation.

  11. new model for solar radiation estimation from measured air

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    HOD

    RMSE) and correlation ... countries due to the unavailability of measured data in place [3-5]. ... models were used to predict solar radiation in Nigeria by. [12-15]. However ..... "Comparison of Gene Expression Programming with neuro-fuzzy and ...

  12. Summary of daily observational results of solar phenomena, cosmic ray, geomagnetic variation, ionosphere, radio wave propagation and airglow. During October 1973 through September 1975

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1976-12-01

    The diagrams in this section of the publication illustrate the summary of daily observational results of solar phenomena, cosmic ray, geomagnetic variation, ionosphere, radio wave propagation and airglow observed in Japan. For convenience, the observational results are arranged by the solar rotation number. The aim of this illustration is to disseminate an outline of daily events observed in Japan for the benefit of active research workers who plan to make detailed study of the specific solar and terrestrial events. Therefore, the illustrations do not show all observational results in Japan but only representative ones at some key stations in Japan. They will suffice for the present purpose. The method of illustration shown in the instruction on the next page is still a preliminary one, and it is subject to change resulting from the kind advice of the users of this part of the publication.

  13. Global cross-station assessment of neuro-fuzzy models for estimating daily reference evapotranspiration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiri, Jalal; Nazemi, Amir Hossein; Sadraddini, Ali Ashraf; Landeras, Gorka; Kisi, Ozgur; Fard, Ahmad Fakheri; Marti, Pau

    2013-02-01

    SummaryAccurate estimation of reference evapotranspiration is important for irrigation scheduling, water resources management and planning and other agricultural water management issues. In the present paper, the capabilities of generalized neuro-fuzzy models were evaluated for estimating reference evapotranspiration using two separate sets of weather data from humid and non-humid regions of Spain and Iran. In this way, the data from some weather stations in the Basque Country and Valencia region (Spain) were used for training the neuro-fuzzy models [in humid and non-humid regions, respectively] and subsequently, the data from these regions were pooled to evaluate the generalization capability of a general neuro-fuzzy model in humid and non-humid regions. The developed models were tested in stations of Iran, located in humid and non-humid regions. The obtained results showed the capabilities of generalized neuro-fuzzy model in estimating reference evapotranspiration in different climatic zones. Global GNF models calibrated using both non-humid and humid data were found to successfully estimate ET0 in both non-humid and humid regions of Iran (the lowest MAE values are about 0.23 mm for non-humid Iranian regions and 0.12 mm for humid regions). non-humid GNF models calibrated using non-humid data performed much better than the humid GNF models calibrated using humid data in non-humid region while the humid GNF model gave better estimates in humid region.

  14. Clinical utility of spot urine protein-to-creatinine ratio modified by estimated daily creatinine excretion in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Eun Mi; Yoon, Bo Ae; Kim, Soo Wan; Kim, Chan Jong

    2017-06-01

    The spot urine protein-to-creatinine ratio (UPCR) is widely used to predict 24-h urine protein (24-h UP) excretion. In patients with low daily urine creatinine excretion (UCr), however, the UPCR may overestimate 24-h UP. The aim of this study was to predict 24-h UP using UPCR adjusted by estimated 24-h UCr in children. This study included 442 children whose 24-h UP and spot UPCR were measured concomitantly. Estimated 24-h UCr was calculated using three previously existing equations. We estimated the 24-h UP excretion from UPCR by multiplying the estimated UCr. The results were compared with the measured 24-h UP. There was a strong correlation between UPCR and 24-h UP (r = 0.801, P < 0.001), and the correlation improved after multiplying the UPCR by the measured UCr (r = 0.847, P < 0.001). Using the estimated UCr rather than the measured UCr, there was high accuracy and strong correlation between the estimated UPCR weighted by the Cockcroft-Gault equation and 24-h UP. Improvement was also observed in the subgroup (proteinuria vs. non-proteinuria) analysis, particularly in the proteinuria group. The spot UPCR multiplied by the estimated UCr improved the accuracy of prediction of the 24-h UP in children.

  15. Estimation of the effectivity of gamma teletherapy with fractionated daily doses in inoperable malignant tumors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mardynskij, Yu.S.; Leskov, V.P.

    1982-01-01

    131 patients with lung, esophagus, rectum and mandibulofacial tumors, most of them being inoperable, were treated with fractionated gamma teletherapy. The daily focus dose of 2-2.2 Gy was applied in 2 fractions with an interval of 4-6 h. The total focus dose of one course of treatment was 40-70 Gy. In 56 patients (42.7%) a complete regression of the tumors and of the increased regional lymph nodes was obtained. The irradiation by the mentioned technique showed the highest effectivity for tumors of the lung and the esophagus. The diminished frequency and an easier progress of the radiation reactions are important because they often prevent to carry out a radical therapy. (author)

  16. Considerations for estimating daily intake values of non-persistent environmental endocrine disruptors based on urinary biomonitoring data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søeborg, Tue; Frederiksen, Hanne; Andersson, Anna-Maria

    2014-01-01

    into daily intake values for bisphenol A, phthalates, parabens and triclosan, and to identify knowledge gaps.MethodsHuman data was evaluated and supplied with relevant animal data. Focus was on recovery of the administered dose, the route of administration and on differences between humans and animals......-calculation of parabens in humans. The recovery of both oral and dermal triclosan in humans has been studied, but due to background levels of triclosan, the back-calculation is difficult to perform.ConclusionDue to limited data, reasonable estimates of daily intake values based on urinary data are often not possible...... to obtain. Several knowledge gaps were identified and new studies were suggested. The route of administration used in toxicokinetic studies often does not match realistic scenarios....

  17. Toward an estimation of daily european CO2 fluxes at high spatial resolution by inversion of atmospheric transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carouge, C.

    2006-04-01

    Since the end of the 1980's, measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide have been used to estimate global and regional fluxes of CO 2 . This is possible because CO 2 concentration variation is directly linked to flux variation by atmospheric transport. We can find the spatial and temporal distribution of fluxes from concentration measurements by 'inverting' the atmospheric transport. Until recently, most CO 2 inversions have used monthly mean CO 2 atmospheric concentration measurements to infer monthly fluxes. Considering the sparseness of the global CO 2 measurement network, fluxes were a priori aggregated on sub-continental regions and distributed on a fixed spatial pattern within these regions. Only one flux coefficient per month for each region was optimized. With this strong constraint, estimated fluxes can be biased by non-perfect distribution of fluxes within each region (aggregation error). Therefore, flux estimation at model resolution is being developed where the hard constraint of a fixed distribution within a region is replaced by a soft constraint of covariances between flux uncertainties. The use of continuous observations from an increasing number of measurement sites offers a new challenge for inverse modelers. We investigate the use of daily averaged observations to infer daily CO 2 fluxes at model resolution over Europe. We have developed a global synthesis Bayesian inversion to invert daily fluxes at model resolution (50 x 50 km over Europe) from daily averaged CO 2 concentrations. We have obtained estimated fluxes for the year 2001 over Europe using the 10 European continuous sites from the AEROCARB network. The global atmospheric model LMDZt is used with a nested grid over Europe. It is necessary to add a priori spatial and temporal correlations between flux errors to constrain the Bayesian inversion. We present the impact on estimated fluxes of three different spatial correlations based on distance between pixels, climate and vegetation

  18. Source term boundary adaptive estimation in a first-order 1D hyperbolic PDE: Application to a one loop solar collector through

    KAUST Repository

    Mechhoud, Sarra; Laleg-Kirati, Taous-Meriem

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, boundary adaptive estimation of solar radiation in a solar collector plant is investigated. The solar collector is described by a 1D first-order hyperbolic partial differential equation where the solar radiation models the source term

  19. Developing Daily Quantitative Damage Estimates From Geospatial Layers To Support Post Event Recovery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woods, B. K.; Wei, L. H.; Connor, T. C.

    2014-12-01

    With the growth of natural hazard data available in near real-time it is increasingly feasible to deliver damage estimates caused by natural disasters. These estimates can be used in disaster management setting or by commercial entities to optimize the deployment of resources and/or routing of goods and materials. This work outlines an end-to-end, modular process to generate estimates of damage caused by severe weather. The processing stream consists of five generic components: 1) Hazard modules that provide quantitate data layers for each peril. 2) Standardized methods to map the hazard data to an exposure layer based on atomic geospatial blocks. 3) Peril-specific damage functions that compute damage metrics at the atomic geospatial block level. 4) Standardized data aggregators, which map damage to user-specific geometries. 5) Data dissemination modules, which provide resulting damage estimates in a variety of output forms. This presentation provides a description of this generic tool set, and an illustrated example using HWRF-based hazard data for Hurricane Arthur (2014). In this example, the Python-based real-time processing ingests GRIB2 output from the HWRF numerical model, dynamically downscales it in conjunctions with a land cover database using a multiprocessing pool, and a just-in-time compiler (JIT). The resulting wind fields are contoured, and ingested into a PostGIS database using OGR. Finally, the damage estimates are calculated at the atomic block level and aggregated to user-defined regions using PostgreSQL queries to construct application specific tabular and graphics output.

  20. An approach estimating the short-term effect of NO2 on daily mortality in Spanish cities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linares, Cristina; Falcón, Isabel; Ortiz, Cristina; Díaz, Julio

    2018-04-07

    Road traffic is the most significant source of urban air pollution. PM 2.5 is the air pollutant whose health effects have been most closely studied, and is the variable most commonly used as a proxy indicator of exposure to air pollution, whereas evidence on NO 2 concentrations per se is still under study. In the case of Spain, there are no specific updated studies which calculate short-term NO 2 -related mortality. To quantify the relative risks (RRs) and attributable risks (ARs) of daily mortality associated with NO 2 concentrations recorded in Spain across the study period, 2000-2009; and to calculate the number of NO 2 -related deaths. We calculated daily mortality due to natural causes (ICD-10: A00 R99), circulatory causes (ICD-10: I00 I99) and respiratory causes (ICD-10: J00 J99) for each province across the period 2000-2009, using data supplied by the National Statistics Institute. Mean daily NO 2 concentrations in μg/m 3 for each provincial capital were furnished by the Ministry of Agriculture & Environment, along with the equivalent figures for the control pollutants (PM 10 ). To estimate RRs and ARs, we used generalised linear models with a Poisson link, controlling for maximum and minimum daily temperature, trend of the series, seasonalities, and the autoregressive nature of the series. A meta-analysis with random effects was used to estimate RRs and ARs nationwide. The overall RRs obtained for Spain, corresponding to increases of 10 μg/m 3 in NO 2 concentrations were 1.012 (95% CI: 1.010 1.014) for natural-cause mortality, 1.028 (95% CI: 1.019 1.037) for respiratory-cause mortality, and 1.016 (95% CI: 1.012 1.021) for circulatory-cause mortality. This amounted to an annual overall 6085 deaths (95% CI: 3288 9427) due to natural causes, 1031 (95% CI: 466 1585) due to respiratory causes, and 1978 (95% CI: 828 3197) due to circulatory causes. By virtue of the number of cities involved and the nature of the analysis performed, with quantification of the

  1. Potential of Solar Energy in Kota Kinabalu, Sabah: An Estimate Using a Photovoltaic System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markos, F. M.; Sentian, J.

    2016-04-01

    Solar energy is becoming popular as an alternative renewable energy to conventional energy source, particularly in the tropics, where duration and intensity of solar radiation are longer. This study is to assess the potential of solar energy generated from solar for Kota Kinabalu, a rapidly developing city in the State of Sabah, Malaysia. A year data of solar radiation was obtained using pyranometer, which was located at Universiti Malaysia Sabah (6.0367° N, 116.1186° E). It was concluded that the annual average solar radiation received in Kota Kinabalu was 182 W/m2. In estimating the potential energy generated from solar for Kota Kinabalu city area, a photovoltaic (PV) system model was used. The results showed that, Kota Kinabalu is estimated to produce 29,794 kWh/m2 of electricity from the solar radiation received in a year. This is equivalent to 0.014 MW of electricity produced just by using one solar panel. Considering the power demand in Sabah by 2020 is 1,331 MW, this model showed that the solar energy can contribute around 4% of energy for power demand, with 1 MW capacity of the PV system. 1 MW of PV system installation will require about 0.0328% from total area of the city. This assessment could suggest that, exploration for solar power energy as an alternative source of renewable energy in the city can be optimised and designed to attain significant higher percentage of contribution to the energy demand in the state.

  2. Potential of Solar Energy in Kota Kinabalu, Sabah: An Estimate Using a Photovoltaic System Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Markos, F M; Sentian, J

    2016-01-01

    Solar energy is becoming popular as an alternative renewable energy to conventional energy source, particularly in the tropics, where duration and intensity of solar radiation are longer. This study is to assess the potential of solar energy generated from solar for Kota Kinabalu, a rapidly developing city in the State of Sabah, Malaysia. A year data of solar radiation was obtained using pyranometer, which was located at Universiti Malaysia Sabah (6.0367° N, 116.1186° E). It was concluded that the annual average solar radiation received in Kota Kinabalu was 182 W/m 2 . In estimating the potential energy generated from solar for Kota Kinabalu city area, a photovoltaic (PV) system model was used. The results showed that, Kota Kinabalu is estimated to produce 29,794 kWh/m 2 of electricity from the solar radiation received in a year. This is equivalent to 0.014 MW of electricity produced just by using one solar panel. Considering the power demand in Sabah by 2020 is 1,331 MW, this model showed that the solar energy can contribute around 4% of energy for power demand, with 1 MW capacity of the PV system. 1 MW of PV system installation will require about 0.0328% from total area of the city. This assessment could suggest that, exploration for solar power energy as an alternative source of renewable energy in the city can be optimised and designed to attain significant higher percentage of contribution to the energy demand in the state. (paper)

  3. Developing a new solar radiation estimation model based on Buckingham theorem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ekici, Can; Teke, Ismail

    2018-06-01

    While the value of solar radiation can be expressed physically in the days without clouds, this expression becomes difficult in cloudy and complicated weather conditions. In addition, solar radiation measurements are often not taken in developing countries. In such cases, solar radiation estimation models are used. Solar radiation prediction models estimate solar radiation using other measured meteorological parameters those are available in the stations. In this study, a solar radiation estimation model was obtained using Buckingham theorem. This theory has been shown to be useful in predicting solar radiation. In this study, Buckingham theorem is used to express the solar radiation by derivation of dimensionless pi parameters. This derived model is compared with temperature based models in the literature. MPE, RMSE, MBE and NSE error analysis methods are used in this comparison. Allen, Hargreaves, Chen and Bristow-Campbell models in the literature are used for comparison. North Dakota's meteorological data were used to compare the models. Error analysis were applied through the comparisons between the models in the literature and the model that is derived in the study. These comparisons were made using data obtained from North Dakota's agricultural climate network. In these applications, the model obtained within the scope of the study gives better results. Especially, in terms of short-term performance, it has been found that the obtained model gives satisfactory results. It has been seen that this model gives better accuracy in comparison with other models. It is possible in RMSE analysis results. Buckingham theorem was found useful in estimating solar radiation. In terms of long term performances and percentage errors, the model has given good results.

  4. On a relation of geomagnetic activity, solar wind velocity and irregularity of daily rotation of the Earth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kalinin, Yu.D.; Kiselev, V.M.

    1980-01-01

    A possibility of the presence of statistic relation between the changes of the Earth rotation regime and the mean velocity of solar wind is discussed. The ratio between the solar wind velocity observed and planetary index of geomagnetic activity am is used to determine the annual average values of solar wind velocity beyond the twentieth cycle of solar activity. The restored changes of solar wind velocity are compared with solar conditioned variations of the Earth day duration and it is shown that the correspondence takes place only at frequencies lower the frequency of 11-year cycle [ru

  5. Estimating Solar Irradiation Absorbed by Photovoltaic Panels with Low Concentration Located in Craiova, Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ionel L. Alboteanu

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Solar irradiation is one of the important parameters that should be taken into consideration for the design and utilization of a photovoltaic system. Usually, the input parameters of a photovoltaic system are solar irradiation, the ambient environment temperature and the wind speed, and as a consequence most photovoltaic systems are equipped with sensors for measuring these parameters. This paper presents several mathematical models for solar irradiation assessment. The starting point is represented by the mathematical model of extraterrestrial irradiation, and resulting finally in the model for solar irradiation, absorbed by a low concentration photovoltaic panel. These estimating models of solar irradiation have been particularized for the Craiova, Romania, and have been verified through numerical simulation. Regarding terrestrial solar irradiation, four mathematical models have been adopted, namely Adnot, Haurwitz, Kasten and Empirical (EIM. Of these, the most appropriate for the Craiova location were the models Adnot and Empirical. Consequently, for the calculation of the solar irradiation absorbed by the photovoltaic (PV panels with low concentration, these models have been taken into consideration. In this study, a comparative analysis was also carried out with respect to the solar irradiation absorbed by the PV panels without concentration and those with collectedness of the solar radiation. This analysis was based on the results of numerical simulation and experimental tests.

  6. Daily thanatomicrobiome changes in soil as an approach of postmortem interval estimation: An ecological perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adserias-Garriga, Joe; Hernández, Marta; Quijada, Narciso M; Rodríguez Lázaro, David; Steadman, Dawnie; Garcia-Gil, Jesús

    2017-09-01

    Understanding human decomposition is critical for its use in postmortem interval (PMI) estimation, having a significant impact on forensic investigations. In recognition of the need to establish the scientific basis for PMI estimation, several studies on decomposition have been carried out in the last years. The aims of the present study were: (i) to identify soil microbiota communities involved in human decomposition through high-throughput sequencing (HTS) of DNA sequences from the different bacteria, (ii) to monitor quantitatively and qualitatively the decay of such signature species, and (iii) to describe succesional changes in bacterial populations from the early putrefaction state until skeletonization. Three donated individuals to the University of Tennessee FAC were studied. Soil samples around the body were taken from the placement of the donor until advanced decay/dry remains stage. Bacterial DNA extracts were obtained from the samples, HTS techniques were applied and bioinformatic data analysis was performed. The three cadavers showed similar overall successional changes. At the beginning of the decomposition process the soil microbiome consisted of diverse indigenous soil bacterial communities. As decomposition advanced, Firmicutes community abundance increased in the soil during the bloat stage. The growth curve of Firmicutes from human remains can be used to estimate time since death during Tennessee summer conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Evaluation of Various Methods for Estimating Global Solar Radiation in the Southeastern United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Woli, Prem; Paz, Joel O.

    2012-05-01

    Global solar radiation Rg is an important input for crop models to simulate crop responses. Because the scarcity of long and continuous records of Rg is a serious limitation in many countries, Rg is estimated using models. For crop-model application, empirical Rg models that use commonly measured meteorological variables, such as temperature and precipitation, are generally preferred. Although a large number of models of this kind exist, few have been evaluated for conditions in the United States. This study evaluated the performances of 16 empirical, temperature- and/or precipitation-based Rg models for the southeastern United States. By taking into account spatial distribution and data availability, 30 locations in the region were selected and their daily weather data spanning eight years obtained. One-half of the data was used for calibrating the models, and the other half was used for evaluation. For each model, location-specific parameter values were estimated through regressions. Models were evaluated for each location using the root-mean-square error and the modeling efficiency as goodness-of-fit measures. Among the models that use temperature or precipitation as the input variable, the Mavromatis model showed the best performance. The piecewise linear regression based Wu et al. model (WP) performed best not only among the models that use both temperature and precipitation but also among the 16 models evaluated, mainly because it has separate relationships for low and high radiation levels. The modeling efficiency of WP was from ~5% to more than 100% greater than those of the other models, depending on models and locations.

  8. Bayesian estimation of extreme flood quantiles using a rainfall-runoff model and a stochastic daily rainfall generator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Veber; Fernandes, Wilson

    2017-11-01

    Extreme flood estimation has been a key research topic in hydrological sciences. Reliable estimates of such events are necessary as structures for flood conveyance are continuously evolving in size and complexity and, as a result, their failure-associated hazards become more and more pronounced. Due to this fact, several estimation techniques intended to improve flood frequency analysis and reducing uncertainty in extreme quantile estimation have been addressed in the literature in the last decades. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian framework for the indirect estimation of extreme flood quantiles from rainfall-runoff models. In the proposed approach, an ensemble of long daily rainfall series is simulated with a stochastic generator, which models extreme rainfall amounts with an upper-bounded distribution function, namely, the 4-parameter lognormal model. The rationale behind the generation model is that physical limits for rainfall amounts, and consequently for floods, exist and, by imposing an appropriate upper bound for the probabilistic model, more plausible estimates can be obtained for those rainfall quantiles with very low exceedance probabilities. Daily rainfall time series are converted into streamflows by routing each realization of the synthetic ensemble through a conceptual hydrologic model, the Rio Grande rainfall-runoff model. Calibration of parameters is performed through a nonlinear regression model, by means of the specification of a statistical model for the residuals that is able to accommodate autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity and nonnormality. By combining the outlined steps in a Bayesian structure of analysis, one is able to properly summarize the resulting uncertainty and estimating more accurate credible intervals for a set of flood quantiles of interest. The method for extreme flood indirect estimation was applied to the American river catchment, at the Folsom dam, in the state of California, USA. Results show that most floods

  9. Estimating total maximum daily loads with the Stochastic Empirical Loading and Dilution Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granato, Gregory; Jones, Susan Cheung

    2017-01-01

    The Massachusetts Department of Transportation (DOT) and the Rhode Island DOT are assessing and addressing roadway contributions to total maximum daily loads (TMDLs). Example analyses for total nitrogen, total phosphorus, suspended sediment, and total zinc in highway runoff were done by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with FHWA to simulate long-term annual loads for TMDL analyses with the stochastic empirical loading and dilution model known as SELDM. Concentration statistics from 19 highway runoff monitoring sites in Massachusetts were used with precipitation statistics from 11 long-term monitoring sites to simulate long-term pavement yields (loads per unit area). Highway sites were stratified by traffic volume or surrounding land use to calculate concentration statistics for rural roads, low-volume highways, high-volume highways, and ultraurban highways. The median of the event mean concentration statistics in each traffic volume category was used to simulate annual yields from pavement for a 29- or 30-year period. Long-term average yields for total nitrogen, phosphorus, and zinc from rural roads are lower than yields from the other categories, but yields of sediment are higher than for the low-volume highways. The average yields of the selected water quality constituents from high-volume highways are 1.35 to 2.52 times the associated yields from low-volume highways. The average yields of the selected constituents from ultraurban highways are 1.52 to 3.46 times the associated yields from high-volume highways. Example simulations indicate that both concentration reduction and flow reduction by structural best management practices are crucial for reducing runoff yields.

  10. Validation of satellite daily rainfall estimates in complex terrain of Bali Island, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahmawati, Novi; Lubczynski, Maciek W.

    2017-11-01

    Satellite rainfall products have different performances in different geographic regions under different physical and climatological conditions. In this study, the objective was to select the most reliable and accurate satellite rainfall products for specific, environmental conditions of Bali Island. The performances of four spatio-temporal satellite rainfall products, i.e., CMORPH25, CMORPH8, TRMM, and PERSIANN, were evaluated at the island, zonation (applying elevation and climatology as constraints), and pixel scales, using (i) descriptive statistics and (ii) categorical statistics, including bias decomposition. The results showed that all the satellite products had low accuracy because of spatial scale effect, daily resolution and the island complexity. That accuracy was relatively lower in (i) dry seasons and dry climatic zones than in wet seasons and wet climatic zones; (ii) pixels jointly covered by sea and mountainous land than in pixels covered by land or by sea only; and (iii) topographically diverse than uniform terrains. CMORPH25, CMORPH8, and TRMM underestimated and PERSIANN overestimated rainfall when comparing them to gauged rain. The CMORPH25 had relatively the best performance and the PERSIANN had the worst performance in the Bali Island. The CMORPH25 had the lowest statistical errors, the lowest miss, and the highest hit rainfall events; it also had the lowest miss rainfall bias and was relatively the most accurate in detecting, frequent in Bali, ≤ 20 mm day-1 rain events. Lastly, the CMORPH25 coarse grid better represented rainfall events from coastal to inlands areas than other satellite products, including finer grid CMORPH8.

  11. Estimating shortwave solar radiation using net radiation and meteorological measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shortwave radiation has a wide variety of uses in land-atmosphere interactions research. Actual evapotranspiration estimation that involves stomatal conductance models like Jarvis and Ball-Berry require shortwave radiation to estimate photon flux density. However, in most weather stations, shortwave...

  12. Speciation of arsenic in rice and estimation of daily intake of different arsenic species by Brazilians through rice consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batista, Bruno L; Souza, Juliana M O; De Souza, Samuel S; Barbosa, Fernando

    2011-07-15

    Rice is an important source of essential elements. However, rice may also contain toxic elements such as arsenic. Therefore, in the present study, the concentration of total arsenic and five main chemical species of arsenic (As(3+), As(5+), DMA, MMA and AsB) were evaluated in 44 different rice samples (white, parboiled white, brown, parboiled brown, parboiled organic and organic white) from different Brazilian regions using high-performance liquid chromatography hyphenated to inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (HPLC-ICP-MS). The mean level of total arsenic was 222.8 ng g(-1) and the daily intake of inorganic arsenic (the most toxic form) from rice consumption was estimated as 10% of the Provisional Tolerable Daily Intake (PTDI) with a daily ingestion of 88 g of rice. Inorganic arsenic (As(3+), As(5+)) and dimethylarsinic acid (DMA) are the predominant forms in all samples. The percentages of species were 38.7; 39.7; 3.7 and 17.8% for DMA, As(3+), MMA and As(5+), respectively. Moreover, rice samples harvested in the state of Rio Grande do Sul presented more fractions of inorganic arsenic than rice in Minas Gerais or Goiás, which could lead to different risks of arsenic exposure. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Estimates of Sputter Yields of Solar-Wind Heavy Ions of Lunar Regolith Materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barghouty, Abdulmasser F.; Adams, James H., Jr.

    2008-01-01

    At energies of approximately 1 keV/amu, solar-wind protons and heavy ions interact with the lunar surface materials via a number of microscopic interactions that include sputtering. Solar-wind induced sputtering is a main mechanism by which the composition of the topmost layers of the lunar surface can change, dynamically and preferentially. This work concentrates on sputtering induced by solar-wind heavy ions. Sputtering associated with slow (speeds the electrons speed in its first Bohr orbit) and highly charged ions are known to include both kinetic and potential sputtering. Potential sputtering enjoys some unique characteristics that makes it of special interest to lunar science and exploration. Unlike the yield from kinetic sputtering where simulation and approximation schemes exist, the yield from potential sputtering is not as easy to estimate. This work will present a preliminary numerical scheme designed to estimate potential sputtering yields from reactions relevant to this aspect of solar-wind lunar-surface coupling.

  14. Methodology for estimation of potential for solar water heating in a target area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pillai, Indu R.; Banerjee, Rangan

    2007-01-01

    Proper estimation of potential of any renewable energy technology is essential for planning and promotion of the technology. The methods reported in literature for estimation of potential of solar water heating in a target area are aggregate in nature. A methodology for potential estimation (technical, economic and market potential) of solar water heating in a target area is proposed in this paper. This methodology links the micro-level factors and macro-level market effects affecting the diffusion or adoption of solar water heating systems. Different sectors with end uses of low temperature hot water are considered for potential estimation. Potential is estimated at each end use point by simulation using TRNSYS taking micro-level factors. The methodology is illustrated for a synthetic area in India with an area of 2 sq. km and population of 10,000. The end use sectors considered are residential, hospitals, nursing homes and hotels. The estimated technical potential and market potential are 1700 m 2 and 350 m 2 of collector area, respectively. The annual energy savings for the technical potential in the area is estimated as 110 kW h/capita and 0.55 million-kW h/sq. km. area, with an annual average peak saving of 1 MW. The annual savings is 650-kW h per m 2 of collector area and accounts for approximately 3% of the total electricity consumption of the target area. Some of the salient features of the model are the factors considered for potential estimation; estimation of electrical usage pattern for typical day, amount of electricity savings and savings during the peak load. The framework is general and enables accurate estimation of potential of solar water heating for a city, block. Energy planners and policy makers can use this framework for tracking and promotion of diffusion of solar water heating systems. (author)

  15. Estimation of potential solar radiation using 50m grid digital terrain model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kurose, Y.; Nagata, K.; Ohba, K.; Maruyama, A.

    1999-01-01

    To clarify the spatial distribution of solar radiation, a model to estimate the potential incoming solar radiation with 50m grid size was developed. The model is based on individual calculation of direct and diffuse solar radiation accounting for the effect of topographic shading. Using the elevation data in the area with radius 25km, which was offered by the Digital Map 50m Grid, the effect of topographic shading is estimated as angle of elevation for surrounding configuration to 72 directions. The estimated sunshine duration under clear sky conditions agreed well with observed values at AMeDAS points of Kyushu and Shikoku region. Similarly, there is a significant agreement between estimated and observed variation of solar radiation for monthly mean conditions over complex terrain. These suggest that the potential incoming solar radiation can be estimated well over complex terrain using the model. Locations of large fields over complex terrain agreed well with the area of the abundant insolation condition, which is defined by the model. The model is available for the investigation of agrometeorological resources over complex terrain. (author)

  16. Estimation of available global solar radiation using sunshine duration over South Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Amrita; Park, Jin-ki; Park, Jong-hwa

    2015-11-01

    Besides designing a solar energy system, accurate insolation data is also a key component for many biological and atmospheric studies. But solar radiation stations are not widely available due to financial and technical limitations; this insufficient number affects the spatial resolution whenever an attempt is made to construct a solar radiation map. There are several models in literature for estimating incoming solar radiation using sunshine fraction. Seventeen of such models among which 6 are linear and 11 non-linear, have been chosen for studying and estimating solar radiation on a horizontal surface over South Korea. The better performance of a non-linear model signifies the fact that the relationship between sunshine duration and clearness index does not follow a straight line. With such a model solar radiation over 79 stations measuring sunshine duration is computed and used as input for spatial interpolation. Finally monthly solar radiation maps are constructed using the Ordinary Kriging method. The cross validation results show good agreement between observed and predicted data.

  17. Performance of five surface energy balance models for estimating daily evapotranspiration in high biomass sorghum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagle, Pradeep; Bhattarai, Nishan; Gowda, Prasanna H.; Kakani, Vijaya G.

    2017-06-01

    Robust evapotranspiration (ET) models are required to predict water usage in a variety of terrestrial ecosystems under different geographical and agrometeorological conditions. As a result, several remote sensing-based surface energy balance (SEB) models have been developed to estimate ET over large regions. However, comparison of the performance of several SEB models at the same site is limited. In addition, none of the SEB models have been evaluated for their ability to predict ET in rain-fed high biomass sorghum grown for biofuel production. In this paper, we evaluated the performance of five widely used single-source SEB models, namely Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL), Mapping ET with Internalized Calibration (METRIC), Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS), Simplified Surface Energy Balance Index (S-SEBI), and operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop), for estimating ET over a high biomass sorghum field during the 2012 and 2013 growing seasons. The predicted ET values were compared against eddy covariance (EC) measured ET (ETEC) for 19 cloud-free Landsat image. In general, S-SEBI, SEBAL, and SEBS performed reasonably well for the study period, while METRIC and SSEBop performed poorly. All SEB models substantially overestimated ET under extremely dry conditions as they underestimated sensible heat (H) and overestimated latent heat (LE) fluxes under dry conditions during the partitioning of available energy. METRIC, SEBAL, and SEBS overestimated LE regardless of wet or dry periods. Consequently, predicted seasonal cumulative ET by METRIC, SEBAL, and SEBS were higher than seasonal cumulative ETEC in both seasons. In contrast, S-SEBI and SSEBop substantially underestimated ET under too wet conditions, and predicted seasonal cumulative ET by S-SEBI and SSEBop were lower than seasonal cumulative ETEC in the relatively wetter 2013 growing season. Our results indicate the necessity of inclusion of soil moisture or plant water stress

  18. Geospatial tools effectively estimate nonexceedance probabilities of daily streamflow at ungauged and intermittently gauged locations in Ohio

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William H. Farmer

    2017-10-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: Several methods for estimating nonexceedance probabilities of daily mean streamflows are explored, including single-index methodologies (nearest-neighboring index and geospatial tools (kriging and topological kriging. These methods were evaluated by conducting leave-one-out cross-validations based on analyses of nearly 7 years of daily streamflow data from 79 unregulated streamgages in Ohio and neighboring states. The pooled, ordinary kriging model, with a median Nash–Sutcliffe performance of 0.87, was superior to the single-site index methods, though there was some bias in the tails of the probability distribution. Incorporating network structure through topological kriging did not improve performance. The pooled, ordinary kriging model was applied to 118 locations without systematic streamgaging across Ohio where instantaneous streamflow measurements had been made concurrent with water-quality sampling on at least 3 separate days. Spearman rank correlations between estimated nonexceedance probabilities and measured streamflows were high, with a median value of 0.76. In consideration of application, the degree of regulation in a set of sample sites helped to specify the streamgages required to implement kriging approaches successfully.

  19. Polyamines: total daily intake in adolescents compared to the intake estimated from the Swedish Nutrition Recommendations Objectified (SNO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Atiya Ali

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Dietary polyamines have been shown to give a significant contribution to the body pool of polyamines. Knowing the levels of polyamines (putrescine, spermidine, and spermine in different foods and the contribution of daily food choice to polyamine intake is of interest, due to the association of these bioactive amines to health and disease. Objective: To estimate polyamine intake and food contribution to this intake in adolescents compared to a diet fulfilling the Swedish Nutrition Recommendations. Design: A cross-sectional study of dietary intake in adolescents and an ‘ideal diet’ (Swedish nutrition recommendations objectified [SNO] list of foods was used to compute polyamine intake using a database of polyamine contents of foods. For polyamine intake estimation, 7-day weighed food records collected from 93 adolescents were entered into dietetic software (Dietist XP including data on polyamine contents of foods. The content of polyamines in foods recommended according to SNO was entered in the same way. Results: The adolescents’ mean daily polyamine intake was 316±170 µmol/day, while the calculated contribution according to SNO was considerably higher with an average polyamine intake of 541 µmol/day. In both adolescent's intake and SNO, fruits contributed to almost half of the total polyamine intake. The reason why the intake among the adolescents was lower than the one calculated from SNO was mainly due to the low vegetable consumption in the adolescents group. Conclusions: The average daily total polyamine intake was similar to that previously reported in Europe. With an ‘ideal’ diet according to Swedish nutrition recommendations, the intake of this bioactive non-nutrient would be higher than that reported by our adolescents and also higher than that previously reported from Europe.

  20. Perfluorinated carboxylic acids in human breast milk from Spain and estimation of infant's daily intake

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Motas Guzmàn, Miguel [Área de Toxicología, Universidad de Murcia, Campus de Espinardo, 30100 Murcia (Spain); Clementini, Chiara [University of Siena, Department of Physical Sciences, Earth and Environment, Via Mattioli, 4, 53100 Siena (Italy); Pérez-Cárceles, Maria Dolores; Jiménez Rejón, Sandra [Department of Legal Medicine, School of Medicine, University of Murcia & Instituto Murciano de Investigacion Biomedica (IMIB), (IMIB-VIRGEN DE LA ARRIXACA), Murcia (Spain); Cascone, Aurora; Martellini, Tania [Department of Chemistry “Ugo Schiff”, via della Lastruccia 3, 50019 Sesto Fiorentino, Firenze (Italy); Guerranti, Cristiana [University of Siena, Department of Physical Sciences, Earth and Environment, Via Mattioli, 4, 53100 Siena (Italy); Bioscience Research Center, Via Aurelia Vecchia 32, 58015 Orbetello, GR (Italy); Cincinelli, Alessandra, E-mail: acincinelli@unifi.it [Department of Chemistry “Ugo Schiff”, via della Lastruccia 3, 50019 Sesto Fiorentino, Firenze (Italy)

    2016-02-15

    Human milk samples were collected from 67 mothers in 2014 at a Primary Care Centre in Murcia (Spain) and analyzed for perfluorinated carboxylic acids (PFCAs). Concentrations measured for perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), perfluorononanoic acid (PFNA), perfluorodecanoic acid (PFDA), perfluoroundecanoic acid (PFUnDA) and perfluorododecanoic acid (PFDoDA) ranged from < LOQ (< 10 ng/L) to 397 ng/L with a mean concentration of 66 ± 68 ng/L and a median of 29 ng/L. The presence of these compounds was revealed in 50 samples out of 67 analyzed. Influence of number of pregnancies and food habits on PFCAs concentrations was also investigated. Statistically significant differences in PFCA levels were found when the women were divided into maternal age classes and into the categories primiparae and multiparae. A greater transfer of PFC during breastfeeding by primiparous was evidenced and thus a higher exposure to these contaminants for the first child. Moreover, it was possible to hypothesize that the content of PFCs is in general correlated to the eating habits of donors and, in particular, with the fish consumption. Finally, PFOA daily intakes and risk index (RI) were estimated for the first six months of life and we found that ingestion rates of PFOA did not exceed the tolerable daily intake (TDI) recommended by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). - Graphical abstract: Figure SI 1. Concentrations (ng/L) of PFCs recovered in 67 samples of human breast milk. - Highlights: • Perfluorinated carboxylic acids were analyzed in a set of 67 breast milk samples collected from Spanish women. • PFOA appeared as the major contributor to the total perfluorinated carboxylic acids. • PFOA concentrations were significantly higher in milk of primiparous participants. • PFOA daily intake and risk index were estimated for the firsts six month of life.

  1. Perfluorinated carboxylic acids in human breast milk from Spain and estimation of infant's daily intake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Motas Guzmàn, Miguel; Clementini, Chiara; Pérez-Cárceles, Maria Dolores; Jiménez Rejón, Sandra; Cascone, Aurora; Martellini, Tania; Guerranti, Cristiana; Cincinelli, Alessandra

    2016-01-01

    Human milk samples were collected from 67 mothers in 2014 at a Primary Care Centre in Murcia (Spain) and analyzed for perfluorinated carboxylic acids (PFCAs). Concentrations measured for perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), perfluorononanoic acid (PFNA), perfluorodecanoic acid (PFDA), perfluoroundecanoic acid (PFUnDA) and perfluorododecanoic acid (PFDoDA) ranged from < LOQ (< 10 ng/L) to 397 ng/L with a mean concentration of 66 ± 68 ng/L and a median of 29 ng/L. The presence of these compounds was revealed in 50 samples out of 67 analyzed. Influence of number of pregnancies and food habits on PFCAs concentrations was also investigated. Statistically significant differences in PFCA levels were found when the women were divided into maternal age classes and into the categories primiparae and multiparae. A greater transfer of PFC during breastfeeding by primiparous was evidenced and thus a higher exposure to these contaminants for the first child. Moreover, it was possible to hypothesize that the content of PFCs is in general correlated to the eating habits of donors and, in particular, with the fish consumption. Finally, PFOA daily intakes and risk index (RI) were estimated for the first six months of life and we found that ingestion rates of PFOA did not exceed the tolerable daily intake (TDI) recommended by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). - Graphical abstract: Figure SI 1. Concentrations (ng/L) of PFCs recovered in 67 samples of human breast milk. - Highlights: • Perfluorinated carboxylic acids were analyzed in a set of 67 breast milk samples collected from Spanish women. • PFOA appeared as the major contributor to the total perfluorinated carboxylic acids. • PFOA concentrations were significantly higher in milk of primiparous participants. • PFOA daily intake and risk index were estimated for the firsts six month of life.

  2. The estimation of phenological thresholds of Saffron cultivation in Isfahan province based on the daily temperature statistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gholamabbas Fallahghalhary

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available In this research, the statistics of daily temperature of meteorology stations for estimating the probable occurrence of the first and last frost temperature, the phonological thresholds of saffron and its flowering and irrigation dates were explored. Furthermore, by applying different methods, the probabilities of the attained dates in different probability levels were fit in Smada software. The estimated probability level of 95 percent, as the optimum date, was donated for the entire Isfahan province in ArcGIS9/3 software environment using the interpolation method of Cokriging. The time of occurrence of minimum temperatures is under the influence of the geographical and height condition of each region and the first fall season frost occurs in high regions of the eastern half of Isfahan province at the beginning of November and in the low-lying eastern regions in the late December. The occurrence of daily temperature is changeable from the first half of October and the second half of November. From the west to the east of Isfahan, the time of occurrence of this threshold has a delay of about one month. The optimum flowering date of saffron, based on climatic conditions, is from the first half of October to the late of November. By considering the flowering date and daily temperature requirement of saffron, the irrigation date prior to flowering continues from the second half of September in the western parts and the beginning of November in the eastern regions. From the perspective of thermal condition, the western, central, northern and eastern parts of Isfahan province are more suited to the cultivation and development of saffron product. The amount of water requirement in the study area based on evapotranspiration and crop coefficients of saffron occurred in the mid-season, late season and Initial.

  3. Estimating random transverse velocities in the fast solar wind from EISCAT Interplanetary Scintillation measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Canals

    2002-09-01

    Full Text Available Interplanetary scintillation measurements can yield estimates of a large number of solar wind parameters, including bulk flow speed, variation in bulk velocity along the observing path through the solar wind and random variation in transverse velocity. This last parameter is of particular interest, as it can indicate the flux of low-frequency Alfvén waves, and the dissipation of these waves has been proposed as an acceleration mechanism for the fast solar wind. Analysis of IPS data is, however, a significantly unresolved problem and a variety of a priori assumptions must be made in interpreting the data. Furthermore, the results may be affected by the physical structure of the radio source and by variations in the solar wind along the scintillation ray path. We have used observations of simple point-like radio sources made with EISCAT between 1994 and 1998 to obtain estimates of random transverse velocity in the fast solar wind. The results obtained with various a priori assumptions made in the analysis are compared, and we hope thereby to be able to provide some indication of the reliability of our estimates of random transverse velocity and the variation of this parameter with distance from the Sun.Key words. Interplanetary physics (MHD waves and turbulence; solar wind plasma; instruments and techniques

  4. Estimating random transverse velocities in the fast solar wind from EISCAT Interplanetary Scintillation measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Canals

    Full Text Available Interplanetary scintillation measurements can yield estimates of a large number of solar wind parameters, including bulk flow speed, variation in bulk velocity along the observing path through the solar wind and random variation in transverse velocity. This last parameter is of particular interest, as it can indicate the flux of low-frequency Alfvén waves, and the dissipation of these waves has been proposed as an acceleration mechanism for the fast solar wind. Analysis of IPS data is, however, a significantly unresolved problem and a variety of a priori assumptions must be made in interpreting the data. Furthermore, the results may be affected by the physical structure of the radio source and by variations in the solar wind along the scintillation ray path. We have used observations of simple point-like radio sources made with EISCAT between 1994 and 1998 to obtain estimates of random transverse velocity in the fast solar wind. The results obtained with various a priori assumptions made in the analysis are compared, and we hope thereby to be able to provide some indication of the reliability of our estimates of random transverse velocity and the variation of this parameter with distance from the Sun.

    Key words. Interplanetary physics (MHD waves and turbulence; solar wind plasma; instruments and techniques

  5. Models for the estimation of diffuse solar radiation for typical cities in Turkey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bakirci, Kadir

    2015-01-01

    In solar energy applications, diffuse solar radiation component is required. Solar radiation data particularly in terms of diffuse component are not readily affordable, because of high price of measurements as well as difficulties in their maintenance and calibration. In this study, new empirical models for predicting the monthly mean diffuse solar radiation on a horizontal surface for typical cities in Turkey are established. Therefore, fifteen empirical models from studies in the literature are used. Also, eighteen diffuse solar radiation models are developed using long term sunshine duration and global solar radiation data. The accuracy of the developed models is evaluated in terms of different statistical indicators. It is found that the best performance is achieved for the third-order polynomial model based on sunshine duration and clearness index. - Highlights: • Diffuse radiation is given as a function of clearness index and sunshine fraction. • The diffuse radiation is an important parameter in solar energy applications. • The diffuse radiation measurement is for limited periods and it is very rare. • The new models can be used to estimate monthly average diffuse solar radiation. • The accuracy of the models is evaluated on the basis of statistical indicators

  6. A Fundamental Study on Spectrum Center Estimation of Solar Spectral Irradiation by the Statistical Pattern Recognition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iijima, Aya; Suzuki, Kazumi; Wakao, Shinji; Kawasaki, Norihiro; Usami, Akira

    With a background of environmental problems and energy issues, it is expected that PV systems will be introduced rapidly and connected with power grids on a large scale in the future. For this reason, the concern to which PV power generation will affect supply and demand adjustment in electric power in the future arises and the technique of correctly grasping the PV power generation becomes increasingly important. The PV power generation depends on solar irradiance, temperature of a module and solar spectral irradiance. Solar spectral irradiance is distribution of the strength of the light for every wavelength. As the spectrum sensitivity of solar cell depends on kind of solar cell, it becomes important for exact grasp of PV power generation. Especially the preparation of solar spectral irradiance is, however, not easy because the observational instrument of solar spectral irradiance is expensive. With this background, in this paper, we propose a new method based on statistical pattern recognition for estimating the spectrum center which is representative index of solar spectral irradiance. Some numerical examples obtained by the proposed method are also presented.

  7. Methylmercury determination in fish and seafood products and estimated daily intake for the Spanish population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahuquillo, I; Lagarda, M J; Silvestre, M D; Farré, R

    2007-08-01

    The mercury content of 25 samples of fish and seafood products most frequently consumed in Spain was determined. A simple method comprising cold vapour and atomic absorption spectrometry was used to determine separately inorganic and organic mercury. In all samples inorganic mercury content was below 50 microg kg(-1). There was wide variability, among not only the mercury levels of different fish species, but also for different samples of the same species - with the methylmercury content ranging from below 54 to 662 microg kg(-1). The highest mean methylmercury content was found in fresh tuna. Based on an average total fish consumption of 363 g/person week(-1), the methylmercury intake was estimated to be 46.2 microg/person week(-1). Therefore, the mercury intake of Spanish people with a body weight Food Additives (JECFA) provisional tolerable weekly intake (PTWI) of 1.6 microg kg(-1) body weight, but exceeds the US National Research Council (NRC) limit of 0.7 microg kg(-1) body weight week(-1) based on a benchmark dose.

  8. A biophysical approach using water deficit factor for daily estimations of evapotranspiration and CO2 uptake in Mediterranean environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helman, David; Lensky, Itamar M.; Osem, Yagil; Rohatyn, Shani; Rotenberg, Eyal; Yakir, Dan

    2017-09-01

    Estimations of ecosystem-level evapotranspiration (ET) and CO2 uptake in water-limited environments are scarce and scaling up ground-level measurements is not straightforward. A biophysical approach using remote sensing (RS) and meteorological data (RS-Met) is adjusted to extreme high-energy water-limited Mediterranean ecosystems that suffer from continuous stress conditions to provide daily estimations of ET and CO2 uptake (measured as gross primary production, GPP) at a spatial resolution of 250 m. The RS-Met was adjusted using a seasonal water deficit factor (fWD) based on daily rainfall, temperature and radiation data. We validated our adjusted RS-Met with eddy covariance flux measurements using a newly developed mobile lab system and the single active FLUXNET station operating in this region (Yatir pine forest station) at a total of seven forest and non-forest sites across a climatic transect in Israel (280-770 mm yr-1). RS-Met was also compared to the satellite-borne MODIS-based ET and GPP products (MOD16 and MOD17, respectively) at these sites.Results show that the inclusion of the fWD significantly improved the model, with R = 0.64-0.91 for the ET-adjusted model (compared to 0.05-0.80 for the unadjusted model) and R = 0.72-0.92 for the adjusted GPP model (compared to R = 0.56-0.90 of the non-adjusted model). The RS-Met (with the fWD) successfully tracked observed changes in ET and GPP between dry and wet seasons across the sites. ET and GPP estimates from the adjusted RS-Met also agreed well with eddy covariance estimates on an annual timescale at the FLUXNET station of Yatir (266 ± 61 vs. 257 ± 58 mm yr-1 and 765 ± 112 vs. 748 ± 124 gC m-2 yr-1 for ET and GPP, respectively). Comparison with MODIS products showed consistently lower estimates from the MODIS-based models, particularly at the forest sites. Using the adjusted RS-Met, we show that afforestation significantly increased the water use efficiency (the ratio of carbon uptake to ET) in this region

  9. Analysis of solar radiation transfer: A method to estimate the porosity of a plastic shading net

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdel-Ghany, A.M.; Al-Helal, I.M.

    2011-01-01

    Plastic nets with opaque threads are frequently used for shading agricultural structures under high solar radiation conditions. A parameter that is often used to define a net is the net porosity (Π). Value of Π is usually estimated by one of three methods: image processing, direct beam transmittance, or solar radiation balance (hereafter radiation balance). Image processing is a rather slow process because it requires scanning the net sample at high resolution. The direct beam transmittance and radiation balance methods greatly overestimate Π because some of the solar radiation incident on the thread surfaces is forward scattered and add a considerable amount of radiation to that transmitted from the net pores directly. In this study, the radiation balance method was modified to estimate Π precisely. The amount of solar radiation scattered forward on the thread surfaces was estimated separately. Thus, the un-scattered solar radiation transmitted from the net pores directly, which describes the net porosity, Π could be estimated. This method, in addition to the image processing and the direct beam transmittance methods were used to estimate Π for different types of nets that are commonly used for shading structures in summer. Values of Π estimated by using the proposed method were in good accordance with those measured by the image processing method at a resolution of 4800 dpi. The direct beam transmittance and the radiation balance methods resulted in overestimation errors in the values of Π. This error strongly depends on the color of the net. The estimated errors were +14% for a green net and +37% for a white net when using the radiation balance method, and were +16% and +38%, respectively, when using the direct beam transmittance method. In the image processing method, a resolution of 2400 dpi is sufficient to estimate Π precisely and the higher resolutions showed no significant effect on the value of Π.

  10. Estimation of the temperature, heat gain and heat loss by solar parabolic trough collector under Algerian climate using different thermal oils

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ouagued, Malika; Khellaf, Abdallah; Loukarfi, Larbi

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Estimation of direct solar radiations for different tracking systems at six typical locations in Algeria. • PTC thermal model uses energy balances from the HTF to the atmosphere. • The model depends on the collector type, nature of HTF, optical properties, and ambient conditions. • Estimation of temperature, heat gain and energy cost of thermal oils used in the model. • Comparison between monthly mean heat gain of the various thermal oils for six Algerian locations. - Abstract: Algeria is blessed with a very important renewable, and more particularly solar, energy potential. This potential opens for Algeria reel opportunities to cope with the increasing energy demand and the growing environmental problems link to the use of fossil fuel. In order to develop and to promote concrete actions in the areas of renewable energy and energy efficiency, Algeria has introduced a national daring program for the period 2011–2030. In this program, solar energy, and more particularly solar thermal energy plays an important role. In this paper, the potential of direct solar irradiance in Algeria and the performance of solar parabolic trough collector (PTC) are estimated under the climate conditions of the country. These two factors are treated as they play an important role in the design of solar thermal plant. In order to determine the most promising solar sites in Algeria, monthly mean daily direct solar radiation have been estimated and compared for different locations corresponding to different climatic region. Different tilted and tracking collectors are considered so as to determine the most efficient system for the PTC. In order to evaluate the performance of a tracking solar parabolic trough collector, a heat transfer model is developed. The receiver, heat collector element (HCE), is divided into several segments and heat balance is applied in each segment over a section of the solar receiver. Different oils are considered to determine the thermal

  11. Scaling analysis and model estimation of solar corona index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ray, Samujjwal; Ray, Rajdeep; Khondekar, Mofazzal Hossain; Ghosh, Koushik

    2018-04-01

    A monthly average solar green coronal index time series for the period from January 1939 to December 2008 collected from NOAA (The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) has been analysed in this paper in perspective of scaling analysis and modelling. Smoothed and de-noising have been done using suitable mother wavelet as a pre-requisite. The Finite Variance Scaling Method (FVSM), Higuchi method, rescaled range (R/S) and a generalized method have been applied to calculate the scaling exponents and fractal dimensions of the time series. Autocorrelation function (ACF) is used to find autoregressive (AR) process and Partial autocorrelation function (PACF) has been used to get the order of AR model. Finally a best fit model has been proposed using Yule-Walker Method with supporting results of goodness of fit and wavelet spectrum. The results reveal an anti-persistent, Short Range Dependent (SRD), self-similar property with signatures of non-causality, non-stationarity and nonlinearity in the data series. The model shows the best fit to the data under observation.

  12. Intercomparison of PERSIANN-CDR and TRMM-3B42V7 precipitation estimates at monthly and daily time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katiraie-Boroujerdy, Pari-Sima; Akbari Asanjan, Ata; Hsu, Kuo-lin; Sorooshian, Soroosh

    2017-09-01

    In the first part of this paper, monthly precipitation data from Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B42 algorithm Version 7 (TRMM-3B42V7) are evaluated over Iran using the Generalized Three-Cornered Hat (GTCH) method which is self-sufficient of reference data as input. Climate Data Unit (CRU) is added to the GTCH evaluations as an independent gauge-based dataset thus, the minimum requirement of three datasets for the model is satisfied. To ensure consistency of all datasets, the two satellite products were aggregated to 0.5° spatial resolution, which is the minimum resolution of CRU. The results show that the PERSIANN-CDR has higher Signal to Noise Ratio (SNR) than TRMM-3B42V7 for the monthly rainfall estimation, especially in the northern half of the country. All datasets showed low SNR in the mountainous area of southwestern Iran, as well as the arid parts in the southeast region of the country. Additionally, in order to evaluate the efficacy of PERSIANN-CDR and TRMM-3B42V7 in capturing extreme daily-precipitation amounts, an in-situ rain-gauge dataset collected by the Islamic Republic of the Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO) was employed. Given the sparsity of the rain gauges, only 0.25° pixels containing three or more gauges were used for this evaluation. There were 228 such pixels where daily and extreme rainfall from PERSIANN-CDR and TRMM-3B42V7 could be compared. However, TRMM-3B42V7 overestimates most of the intensity indices (correlation coefficients; R between 0.7648-0.8311, Root Mean Square Error; RMSE between 3.29mm/day-21.2mm/5day); PERSIANN-CDR underestimates these extremes (R between 0.6349-0.7791 and RMSE between 3.59mm/day-30.56mm/5day). Both satellite products show higher correlation coefficients and lower RMSEs for the annual mean of consecutive dry spells than wet spells. The results show that TRMM-3B42V7

  13. A hybrid computational approach to estimate solar global radiation: An empirical evidence from Iran

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mostafavi, Elham Sadat; Ramiyani, Sara Saeidi; Sarvar, Rahim; Moud, Hashem Izadi; Mousavi, Seyyed Mohammad

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents an innovative hybrid approach for the estimation of the solar global radiation. New prediction equations were developed for the global radiation using an integrated search method of genetic programming (GP) and simulated annealing (SA), called GP/SA. The solar radiation was formulated in terms of several climatological and meteorological parameters. Comprehensive databases containing monthly data collected for 6 years in two cities of Iran were used to develop GP/SA-based models. Separate models were established for each city. The generalization of the models was verified using a separate testing database. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to investigate the contribution of the parameters affecting the solar radiation. The derived models make accurate predictions of the solar global radiation and notably outperform the existing models. -- Highlights: ► A hybrid approach is presented for the estimation of the solar global radiation. ► The proposed method integrates the capabilities of GP and SA. ► Several climatological and meteorological parameters are included in the analysis. ► The GP/SA models make accurate predictions of the solar global radiation.

  14. A mathematical correlation between variations in solar radiation parameters - I: Daily sums of global radiation and midday global radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Njau, E.C.

    1987-11-01

    An equation that simply relates variations in the daily sums of global radiation and the corresponding midday global radiation data over an arbitrarily chosen location on the Earth is derived from first principles. Although this equation is specifically tailored for periods incorporating only cloudless days, it is modified slightly in order also to suit any period that incorporates either cloudless days or consistently cloudy days or days characterised by consistently distributed cloud patches or any combination of these. Global radiation data for Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, calculated on the basis of the slightly modified version of the equation mentioned above agree with actual measurements to at least 89% if each of the days involved is either fairly cloudless or consistently cloudy or is characterised by fairly consistent cloud patches from sunrise to sunset. This clearly demonstrates that it is quite possible to work out reasonable estimates of the overall global radiation incident on a given area using only the corresponding midday global radiation data for that particular area. (author). 6 refs, 1 fig, 3 tabs

  15. Urinary excretion of phthalate metabolites in 129 healthy Danish children and adolescents: Estimation of daily phthalate intake

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frederiksen, Hanne; Aksglaede, Lise; Sørensen, Kaspar

    2011-01-01

    Background Phthalates are a group of chemicals with widespread use in the industrial production of numerous consumer products. They are suspected to be involved in male reproductive health problems and have also been associated with several other health problems in children including obesity...... and asthma. Objectives To study the urinary excretion of phthalate metabolites in Danish children recruited from the general population, and to estimate the daily intake of phthalates in this segment of the population. Method One 24 h urine sample and to consecutive first morning urine samples were collected...... from 129 healthy Danish children and adolescents (range 6–21 yrs). The concentrations of 11 phthalate metabolites of 5 different phthalate diesters were analyzed by liquid chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry. Results The analyzed metabolites were detectable in almost all 24 h urine samples...

  16. Solar energy estimated from geostationary satellites and its application on the energy management system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakajima, T. Y.; Takamatsu, T.; Funayama, T.; Yamamoto, Y.; Takenaka, H.; Nakajima, T.; Irie, H.; Higuchi, A.

    2017-12-01

    Recently, estimating and forecasting the solar radiation in terms of the electric power generation by photovoltaic (PV) systems is needed for the energy management system (EMS). The estimation technique depends on the latest atmospheric sciences. For instance, when one like to estimate solar radiation reached to ground surface, one will focus on the existence of clouds and their properties, because clouds exert an important influence to the radiative transfer. Visible-to-infared imaging radiometer aboard the geostationary satellites, Himawari, GOES, and Meteosat are useful for such objective, since they observe clouds for full disk of the Earth with high temporal frequency and moderately spatial resolution. Estimation of solar radiation at the ground surface from satellite imagery consists of two steps. The first step is retrieval of cloud optical and microphysical properties by use of the multispectral imaging data. Indeed, we retrieve cloud optical thickness, cloud particle sizes, and cloud top height from visible, near-infrared, and thermal infrared wavelength of the satellite imageries, respectively. The second step is the radiative transfer calculation. We will obtain solar radiation reached to the ground surface, using cloud properties retrieved from the first step, and radiative transfer calculations. We have built a system for near-real time estimation of solar radiation for global scale, named the AMATERASS system, under the support of JST (Japan Science and Technology Agency), CREST/EMS (Energy Management System). The AMATERASS dataset has been used for several researches. For example, Waseda University group applied the AMATERASS data in the electric power system, considering accidental blackout in the electric system for local scale. They made it clear that when AMATERASS data exists the chance of electric voltage deviancy is mitigated when the blackout is over. We have supported a solar car race in Australia, named World Solar Challenge (WSC) 2013

  17. Methodology to estimate variations in solar radiation reaching densely forested slopes in mountainous terrain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sypka, Przemysław; Starzak, Rafał; Owsiak, Krzysztof

    2016-12-01

    Solar radiation reaching densely forested slopes is one of the main factors influencing the water balance between the atmosphere, tree stands and the soil. It also has a major impact on site productivity, spatial arrangement of vegetation structure as well as forest succession. This paper presents a methodology to estimate variations in solar radiation reaching tree stands in a small mountain valley. Measurements taken in three inter-forest meadows unambiguously showed the relationship between the amount of solar insolation and the shading effect caused mainly by the contour of surrounding tree stands. Therefore, appropriate knowledge of elevation, aspect and tilt angles of the analysed planes had to be taken into consideration during modelling. At critical times, especially in winter, the diffuse and reflected components of solar radiation only reached some of the sites studied as the beam component of solar radiation was totally blocked by the densely forested mountain slopes in the neighbourhood. The cross-section contours and elevation angles of all obstructions are estimated from a digital surface model including both digital elevation model and the height of tree stands. All the parameters in a simplified, empirical model of the solar insolation reaching a given horizontal surface within the research valley are dependent on the sky view factor (SVF). The presented simplified, empirical model and its parameterisation scheme should be easily adaptable to different complex terrains or mountain valleys characterised by diverse geometry or spatial orientation. The model was developed and validated (R 2  = 0.92 , σ = 0.54) based on measurements taken at research sites located in the Silesian Beskid Mountain Range. A thorough understanding of the factors determining the amount of solar radiation reaching woodlands ought to considerably expand the knowledge of the water exchange balance within forest complexes as well as the estimation of site

  18. Estimation and analysis of spectral solar radiation over Cairo

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdel Wahab, M.M.; Omran, M.

    1994-05-01

    This work presents a methodology to estimate spectral diffuse and global radiation on horizontal surface. This method is validated by comparing with measured direct and global spectral radiation in four bands. The results show a good performance in cloudless conditions. The analysis of the ratio of surface values to extraterrestrial ones revealed an over-all depletion in the summer months. Also there was no evidence for any tendency for conversion of radiational components through different bands. The model presents excellent agreement with the measured values for (UV/G) ratio. (author). 7 refs, 4 figs, 3 tabs

  19. Lowland rice yield estimates based on air temperature and solar radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pedro Júnior, M.J.; Sentelhas, P.C.; Moraes, A.V.C.; Villela, O.V.

    1995-01-01

    Two regression equations were developed to estimate lowland rice yield as a function of air temperature and incoming solar radiation, during the crop yield production period in Pindamonhangaba, SP, Brazil. The following rice cultivars were used: IAC-242, IAC-100, IAC-101 and IAC-102. The value of optimum air temperature obtained was 25.0°C and of optimum global solar radiation was 475 cal.cm -2 , day -1 . The best agrometeorological model was the one that related least deviation of air temperature and solar radiation in relation to the optimum value obtained through a multiple linear regression. The yield values estimated by the model showed good fit to actual yields of lowland rice (less than 10%). (author) [pt

  20. Estimating Roof Solar Energy Potential in the Downtown Area Using a GPU-Accelerated Solar Radiation Model and Airborne LiDAR Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Huang

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Solar energy, as a clean and renewable resource is becoming increasingly important in the global context of climate change and energy crisis. Utilization of solar energy in urban areas is of great importance in urban energy planning, environmental conservation, and sustainable development. However, available spaces for solar panel installation in cities are quite limited except for building roofs. Furthermore, complex urban 3D morphology greatly affects sunlit patterns on building roofs, especially in downtown areas, which makes the determination of roof solar energy potential a challenging task. The object of this study is to estimate the solar radiation on building roofs in an urban area in Shanghai, China, and select suitable spaces for installing solar panels that can effectively utilize solar energy. A Graphic Processing Unit (GPU-based solar radiation model named SHORTWAVE-C simulating direct and non-direct solar radiation intensity was developed by adding the capability of considering cloud influence into the previous SHORTWAVE model. Airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR data was used as the input of the SHORTWAVE-C model and to investigate the morphological characteristics of the study area. The results show that the SHORTWAVE-C model can accurately estimate the solar radiation intensity in a complex urban environment under cloudy conditions, and the GPU acceleration method can reduce the computation time by up to 46%. Two sites with different building densities and rooftop structures were selected to illustrate the influence of urban morphology on the solar radiation and solar illumination duration. Based on the findings, an object-based method was implemented to identify suitable places for rooftop solar panel installation that can fully utilize the solar energy potential. Our study provides useful strategic guidelines for the selection and assessment of roof solar energy potential for urban energy planning.

  1. Sensitivity of APSIM/ORYZA model due to estimation errors in solar radiation Análise de sensibilidade do modelo APSIM/ORYZA na estimava de erros na radiação solar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandre Bryan Heinemann

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Crop models are ideally suited to quantify existing climatic risks. However, they require historic climate data as input. While daily temperature and rainfall data are often available, the lack of observed solar radiation (Rs data severely limits site-specific crop modelling. The objective of this study was to estimate Rs based on air temperature solar radiation models and to quantify the propagation of errors in simulated radiation on several APSIM/ORYZA crop model seasonal outputs, yield, biomass, leaf area (LAI and total accumulated solar radiation (SRA during the crop cycle. The accuracy of the 5 models for estimated daily solar radiation was similar, and it was not substantially different among sites. For water limited environments (no irrigation, crop model outputs yield, biomass and LAI was not sensitive for the uncertainties in radiation models studied here.Modelos de simulação de culturas são importantes para quantificar riscos climáticos. Esses modelos necessitam de dados climáticos como dados de entrada. Entretanto, dados diários de precipitação pluvial e temperatura são facilmente encontrados, enquanto dados de radiação solar (Rs limitam-se à aplicação de modelos de simulação de culturas. O objetivo deste estudo foi estimar a Rs utilizando cinco modelos de estimativa de radiação solar com base na temperatura do ar e quantificar a propagação de erros na radiação simulada na produtividade, biomassa, área foliar e radiação solar acumulada durante o ciclo da cultura do arroz de terras altas simulados pelo modelo de simulação ORYZA/APSIM. A acurácia dos cinco modelos de estimativa da radiação solar foi similar e não foi diferente entre os diferentes locais. Para ambientes que ocorre estresse hídrico, as saídas do modelo ORYZA/APSIM produtividade, biomassa e índice de área foliar não foram sensíveis às incertezas provenientes da radiação solar estimadas neste estudo.

  2. Estimating the contribution of strong daily export events to total pollutant export from the United States in summer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Yuanyuan; Fiore, Arlene M.; Horowitz, Larry W.; Gnanadesikan, Anand; Levy, Hiram; Hu, Yongtao; Russell, Armistead G.

    2009-12-01

    While the export of pollutants from the United States exhibits notable variability from day to day and is often considered to be "episodic," the contribution of strong daily export events to total export has not been quantified. We use carbon monoxide (CO) as a tracer of anthropogenic pollutants in the Model of OZone And Related Tracers (MOZART) to estimate this contribution. We first identify the major export pathway from the United States to be through the northeast boundary (24-48°N along 67.5°W and 80-67.5°W along 48°N), and then analyze 15 summers of daily CO export fluxes through this boundary. These daily CO export fluxes have a nearly Gaussian distribution with a mean of 1100 Gg CO day-1 and a standard deviation of 490 Gg CO day-1. To focus on the synoptic variability, we define a "synoptic background" export flux equal to the 15 day moving average export flux and classify strong export days according to their fluxes relative to this background. As expected from Gaussian statistics, 16% of summer days are "strong export days," classified as those days when the CO export flux exceeds the synoptic background by one standard deviation or more. Strong export days contributes 25% to the total export, a value determined by the relative standard deviation of the CO flux distribution. Regressing the anomalies of the CO export flux through the northeast U.S. boundary relative to the synoptic background on the daily anomalies in the surface pressure field (also relative to a 15 day running mean) suggests that strong daily export fluxes are correlated with passages of midlatitude cyclones over the Gulf of Saint Lawrence. The associated cyclonic circulation and Warm Conveyor Belts (WCBs) that lift surface pollutants over the northeastern United States have been shown previously to be associated with long-range transport events. Comparison with observations from the 2004 INTEX-NA field campaign confirms that our model captures the observed enhancements in CO outflow

  3. Random Forests (RFs) for Estimation, Uncertainty Prediction and Interpretation of Monthly Solar Potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assouline, Dan; Mohajeri, Nahid; Scartezzini, Jean-Louis

    2017-04-01

    Solar energy is clean, widely available, and arguably the most promising renewable energy resource. Taking full advantage of solar power, however, requires a deep understanding of its patterns and dependencies in space and time. The recent advances in Machine Learning brought powerful algorithms to estimate the spatio-temporal variations of solar irradiance (the power per unit area received from the Sun, W/m2), using local weather and terrain information. Such algorithms include Deep Learning (e.g. Artificial Neural Networks), or kernel methods (e.g. Support Vector Machines). However, most of these methods have some disadvantages, as they: (i) are complex to tune, (ii) are mainly used as a black box and offering no interpretation on the variables contributions, (iii) often do not provide uncertainty predictions (Assouline et al., 2016). To provide a reasonable solar mapping with good accuracy, these gaps would ideally need to be filled. We present here simple steps using one ensemble learning algorithm namely, Random Forests (Breiman, 2001) to (i) estimate monthly solar potential with good accuracy, (ii) provide information on the contribution of each feature in the estimation, and (iii) offer prediction intervals for each point estimate. We have selected Switzerland as an example. Using a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) along with monthly solar irradiance time series and weather data, we build monthly solar maps for Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI), Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance (GHI), and Extraterrestrial Irradiance (EI). The weather data include monthly values for temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration, and cloud cover. In order to explain the impact of each feature on the solar irradiance of each point estimate, we extend the contribution method (Kuz'min et al., 2011) to a regression setting. Contribution maps for all features can then be computed for each solar map. This provides precious information on the spatial variation of the features impact all

  4. UD-WCMA: An Energy Estimation and Forecast Scheme for Solar Powered Wireless Sensor Networks

    KAUST Repository

    Dehwah, Ahmad H.; Elmetennani, Shahrazed; Claudel, Christian

    2017-01-01

    -WCMA) to estimate and predict the variations of the solar power in a wireless sensor network. The presented approach combines the information from the real-time measurement data and a set of stored profiles representing the energy patterns in the WSNs location

  5. Estimating the geoeffectiveness of halo CMEs from associated solar and IP parameters using neural networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Uwamahoro

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Estimating the geoeffectiveness of solar events is of significant importance for space weather modelling and prediction. This paper describes the development of a neural network-based model for estimating the probability occurrence of geomagnetic storms following halo coronal mass ejection (CME and related interplanetary (IP events. This model incorporates both solar and IP variable inputs that characterize geoeffective halo CMEs. Solar inputs include numeric values of the halo CME angular width (AW, the CME speed (Vcme, and the comprehensive flare index (cfi, which represents the flaring activity associated with halo CMEs. IP parameters used as inputs are the numeric peak values of the solar wind speed (Vsw and the southward Z-component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF or Bs. IP inputs were considered within a 5-day time window after a halo CME eruption. The neural network (NN model training and testing data sets were constructed based on 1202 halo CMEs (both full and partial halo and their properties observed between 1997 and 2006. The performance of the developed NN model was tested using a validation data set (not part of the training data set covering the years 2000 and 2005. Under the condition of halo CME occurrence, this model could capture 100% of the subsequent intense geomagnetic storms (Dst ≤ −100 nT. For moderate storms (−100 < Dst ≤ −50, the model is successful up to 75%. This model's estimate of the storm occurrence rate from halo CMEs is estimated at a probability of 86%.

  6. Comparative Study of Regional Estimation Methods for Daily Maximum Temperature (A Case Study of the Isfahan Province

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghamar Fadavi

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: As the statistical time series are in short period and the meteorological station are not distributed well in mountainous area determining of climatic criteria are complex. Therefore, in recent years interpolation methods for establishment of continuous climatic data have been considered. Continuous daily maximum temperature data are a key factor for climate-crop modeling which is fundamental for water resources management, drought, and optimal use from climatic potentials of different regions. The main objective of this study is to evaluate different interpolation methods for estimation of regional maximum temperature in the Isfahan province. Materials and Methods: Isfahan province has about 937,105 square kilometers, between 30 degree and 43 minutes to 34 degree and 27 minutes North latitude equator line and 49 degree and 36 minutes to 55 degree and 31 minutes east longitude Greenwich. It is located in the center of Iran and it's western part extend to eastern footage of the Zagros mountain range. It should be mentioned that elevation range of meteorological stations are between 845 to 2490 in the study area. This study was done using daily maximum temperature data of 1992 and 2007 years of synoptic and climatology stations of I.R. of Iran meteorological organization (IRIMO. In order to interpolate temperature data, two years including 1992 and 2007 with different number of meteorological stations have been selected the temperature data of thirty meteorological stations (17 synoptic and 13 climatologically stations for 1992 year and fifty four meteorological stations (31 synoptic and 23 climatologically stations for 2007 year were used from Isfahan province and neighboring provinces. In order to regionalize the point data of daily maximum temperature, the interpolation methods, including inverse distance weighted (IDW, Kriging, Co-Kriging, Kriging-Regression, multiple regression and Spline were used. Therefore, for this allocated

  7. Implications of applying solar industry best practice resource estimation on project financing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pacudan, Romeo

    2016-01-01

    Solar resource estimation risk is one of the main solar PV project risks that influences lender’s decision in providing financing and in determining the cost of capital. More recently, a number of measures have emerged to mitigate this risk. The study focuses on solar industry’s best practice energy resource estimation and assesses its financing implications to the 27 MWp solar PV project study in Brunei Darussalam. The best practice in resource estimation uses multiple data sources through the measure-correlate-predict (MCP) technique as compared with the standard practice that rely solely on modelled data source. The best practice case generates resource data with lower uncertainty and yields superior high-confidence energy production estimate than the standard practice case. Using project financial parameters in Brunei Darussalam for project financing and adopting the international debt-service coverage ratio (DSCR) benchmark rates, the best practice case yields DSCRs that surpass the target rates while those of standard practice case stay below the reference rates. The best practice case could also accommodate higher debt share and have lower levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) while the standard practice case would require a lower debt share but having a higher LCOE. - Highlights: •Best practice solar energy resource estimation uses multiple datasets. •Multiple datasets are combined through measure-correlate-predict technique. •Correlated data have lower uncertainty and yields superior high-confidence energy production. •Best practice case yields debt-service coverage ratios (DSCRs) that surpass the benchmark rates. •Best practice case accommodates high debt share and have low levelized cost of electricity.

  8. A biophysical approach using water deficit factor for daily estimations of evapotranspiration and CO2 uptake in Mediterranean environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Helman

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Estimations of ecosystem-level evapotranspiration (ET and CO2 uptake in water-limited environments are scarce and scaling up ground-level measurements is not straightforward. A biophysical approach using remote sensing (RS and meteorological data (RS–Met is adjusted to extreme high-energy water-limited Mediterranean ecosystems that suffer from continuous stress conditions to provide daily estimations of ET and CO2 uptake (measured as gross primary production, GPP at a spatial resolution of 250 m. The RS–Met was adjusted using a seasonal water deficit factor (fWD based on daily rainfall, temperature and radiation data. We validated our adjusted RS–Met with eddy covariance flux measurements using a newly developed mobile lab system and the single active FLUXNET station operating in this region (Yatir pine forest station at a total of seven forest and non-forest sites across a climatic transect in Israel (280–770 mm yr−1. RS–Met was also compared to the satellite-borne MODIS-based ET and GPP products (MOD16 and MOD17, respectively at these sites.Results show that the inclusion of the fWD significantly improved the model, with R =  0.64–0.91 for the ET-adjusted model (compared to 0.05–0.80 for the unadjusted model and R =  0.72–0.92 for the adjusted GPP model (compared to R =  0.56–0.90 of the non-adjusted model. The RS–Met (with the fWD successfully tracked observed changes in ET and GPP between dry and wet seasons across the sites. ET and GPP estimates from the adjusted RS–Met also agreed well with eddy covariance estimates on an annual timescale at the FLUXNET station of Yatir (266 ± 61 vs. 257 ± 58 mm yr−1 and 765 ± 112 vs. 748 ± 124 gC m−2 yr−1 for ET and GPP, respectively. Comparison with MODIS products showed consistently lower estimates from the MODIS-based models, particularly at the forest sites. Using the adjusted RS–Met, we show that afforestation

  9. Controlling confounding by frailty when estimating influenza vaccine effectiveness using predictors of dependency in activities of daily living.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Henry T; McGrath, Leah J; Wyss, Richard; Ellis, Alan R; Stürmer, Til

    2017-12-01

    To improve control of confounding by frailty when estimating the effect of influenza vaccination on all-cause mortality by controlling for a published set of claims-based predictors of dependency in activities of daily living (ADL). Using Medicare claims data, a cohort of beneficiaries >65 years of age was followed from September 1, 2007, to April 12, 2008, with covariates assessed in the 6 months before follow-up. We estimated Cox proportional hazards models of all-cause mortality, with influenza vaccination as a time-varying exposure. We controlled for common demographics, comorbidities, and health care utilization variables and then added 20 ADL dependency predictors. To gauge residual confounding, we estimated pre-influenza season hazard ratios (HRs) between September 1, 2007 and January 5, 2008, which should be 1.0 in the absence of bias. A cohort of 2 235 140 beneficiaries was created, with a median follow-up of 224 days. Overall, 52% were vaccinated and 4% died during follow-up. During the pre-influenza season period, controlling for demographics, comorbidities, and health care use resulted in a HR of 0.66 (0.64, 0.67). Adding the ADL dependency predictors moved the HR to 0.68 (0.67, 0.70). Controlling for demographics and ADL dependency predictors alone resulted in a HR of 0.68 (0.66, 0.70). Results were consistent with those in the literature, with significant uncontrolled confounding after adjustment for demographics, comorbidities, and health care use. Adding ADL dependency predictors moved HRs slightly closer to the null. Of the comorbidities, health care use variables, and ADL dependency predictors, the last set reduced confounding most. However, substantial uncontrolled confounding remained. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  10. Estimated daily intake and safety of FD&C food-colour additives in the US population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bastaki, Maria; Farrell, Thomas; Bhusari, Sachin; Bi, Xiaoyu; Scrafford, Carolyn

    2017-06-01

    A refined exposure assessment was undertaken to calculate the estimated daily intake (EDI) of the seven FD&C straight-colour additives and five FD&C colour lakes ('synthetic' food colours) approved in the United States. The EDIs were calculated for the US population as a whole and specific age groups, including children aged 2-5 and 6-12 years, adolescents aged 13-18 years, and adults aged 19 or more y. Actual use data were collected from an industry survey of companies that are users of these colour additives in a variety of products, with additional input from food colour manufacturers. Food-consumption data were obtained from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). The assessment was further refined by adjusting the intake to more realistic scenarios based on the fraction of products containing colour within specific food categories using data provided by the Mintel International Group Ltd. The results of the analysis indicate that (1) the use levels reported by the industry are consistent with the concentrations measured analytically by the US Food and Drug Administration; and (2) exposure to food-colour additives in the United States by average and high-intake consumers is well below the acceptable daily intake (ADI) of each colour additive as published by the Joint WHO/FAO Committee on Food Additives (JECFA) and allows wide margins of safety. It is concluded that food colour use as currently practised in the United States is safe and does not result in excessive exposure to the population, even at conservative ranges of food consumption and levels of use.

  11. Short-term light and leaf photosynthetic dynamics affect estimates of daily understory photosynthesis in four tree species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naumburg, Elke; Ellsworth, David S

    2002-04-01

    Instantaneous measurements of photosynthesis are often implicitly or explicitly scaled to longer time frames to provide an understanding of plant performance in a given environment. For plants growing in a forest understory, results from photosynthetic light response curves in conjunction with diurnal light data are frequently extrapolated to daily photosynthesis (A(day)), ignoring dynamic photosynthetic responses to light. In this study, we evaluated the importance of two factors on A(day) estimates: dynamic physiological responses to photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD); and time-resolution of the PPFD data used for modeling. We used a dynamic photosynthesis model to investigate how these factors interact with species-specific photosynthetic traits, forest type, and sky conditions to affect the accuracy of A(day) predictions. Increasing time-averaging of PPFD significantly increased the relative overestimation of A(day) similarly for all study species because of the nonlinear response of photosynthesis to PPFD (15% with 5-min PPFD means). Depending on the light environment characteristics and species-specific dynamic responses to PPFD, understory tree A(day) can be overestimated by 6-42% for the study species by ignoring these dynamics. Although these overestimates decrease under cloudy conditions where direct sunlight and consequently understory sunfleck radiation is reduced, they are still significant. Within a species, overestimation of A(day) as a result of ignoring dynamic responses was highly dependent on daily sunfleck PPFD and the frequency and irradiance of sunflecks. Overall, large overestimates of A(day) in understory trees may cause misleading inferences concerning species growth and competition in forest understories with sunlight. We conclude that comparisons of A(day) among co-occurring understory species in deep shade will be enhanced by consideration of sunflecks by using high-resolution PPFD data and understanding the physiological

  12. Empirical models for the estimation of global solar radiation with sunshine hours on horizontal surface in various cities of Pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gadiwala, M.S.; Usman, A.; Akhtar, M.; Jamil, K.

    2013-01-01

    In developing countries like Pakistan the global solar radiation and its components is not available for all locations due to which there is a requirement of using different models for the estimation of global solar radiation that use climatological parameters of the locations. Only five long-period locations data of solar radiation data is available in Pakistan (Karachi, Quetta, Lahore, Multan and Peshawar). These locations almost encompass the different geographical features of Pakistan. For this reason in this study the Mean monthly global solar radiation has been estimated using empirical models of Angstrom, FAO, Glover Mc-Culloch, Sangeeta & Tiwari for the diversity of approach and use of climatic and geographical parameters. Empirical constants for these models have been estimated and the results obtained by these models have been tested statistically. The results show encouraging agreement between estimated and measured values. The outcome of these empirical models will assist the researchers working on solar energy estimation of the location having similar conditions

  13. The Solar Twin Planet Search. III. The [Y/Mg] clock: estimating stellar ages of solar-type stars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucci Maia, M.; Ramírez, I.; Meléndez, J.; Bedell, M.; Bean, J. L.; Asplund, M.

    2016-05-01

    Context. Solar twins are stars with similar stellar (surface) parameters to the Sun that can have a wide range of ages. This provides an opportunity to analyze the variation of their chemical abundances with age. Nissen (2015, A&A, 579, A52) recently suggested that the abundances of the s-process element Y and the α-element Mg could be used to estimate stellar ages. Aims: This paper aims to determine with high precision the Y, Mg, and Fe abundances for a sample of 88 solar twins that span a broad age range (0.3-10.0 Gyr) and investigate their use for estimating ages. Methods: We obtained high-quality Magellan Inamori Kyocera Echelle (MIKE) spectra and determined Y and Mg abundances using equivalent widths and a line-by-line differential method within a 1D LTE framework. Stellar parameters and iron abundances were measured in Paper I of this series for all stars, but a few (three) required a small revision. Results: The [Y/Mg] ratio shows a strong correlation with age. It has a slope of -0.041 ± 0.001 dex/Gyr and a significance of 41σ. This is in excellent agreement with the relation first proposed by Nissen (2015). We found some outliers that turned out to be binaries where mass transfer may have enhanced the yttrium abundance. Given a precise measurement of [Y/Mg] with typical error of 0.02 dex in solar twins, our formula can be used to determine a stellar age with ~0.8 Gyr precision in the 0 to 10 Gyr range. Based on observations obtained at the Clay Magellan Telescopes at Las Campanas Observatory, Chile and at the 3.6 m Telescope at the La Silla ESO Observatory, Chile (program ID 188.C-0265).

  14. A nonlinear support vector machine model with hard penalty function based on glowworm swarm optimization for forecasting daily global solar radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang, He; Dong, Yao

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Eclat data mining algorithm is used to determine the possible predictors. • Support vector machine is converted into a ridge regularization problem. • Hard penalty selects the number of radial basis functions to simply the structure. • Glowworm swarm optimization is utilized to determine the optimal parameters. - Abstract: For a portion of the power which is generated by grid connected photovoltaic installations, an effective solar irradiation forecasting approach must be crucial to ensure the quality and the security of power grid. This paper develops and investigates a novel model to forecast 30 daily global solar radiation at four given locations of the United States. Eclat data mining algorithm is first presented to discover association rules between solar radiation and several meteorological factors laying a theoretical foundation for these correlative factors as input vectors. An effective and innovative intelligent optimization model based on nonlinear support vector machine and hard penalty function is proposed to forecast solar radiation by converting support vector machine into a regularization problem with ridge penalty, adding a hard penalty function to select the number of radial basis functions, and using glowworm swarm optimization algorithm to determine the optimal parameters of the model. In order to illustrate our validity of the proposed method, the datasets at four sites of the United States are split to into training data and test data, separately. The experiment results reveal that the proposed model delivers the best forecasting performances comparing with other competitors.

  15. A hybrid numerical prediction scheme for solar radiation estimation in un-gauged catchments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shamim, M. A.; Bray, M.; Ishak, A. M.; Remesan, R.; Han, D.

    2009-09-01

    The importance of solar radiation on earth's surface is depicted in its wide range of applications in the fields of meteorology, agricultural sciences, engineering, hydrology, crop water requirements, climatic changes and energy assessment. It is quite random in nature as it has to go through different processes of assimilation and dispersion while on its way to earth. Compared to other meteorological parameters, solar radiation is quite infrequently measured, for example, the worldwide ratio of stations collecting solar radiation to those collecting temperature is 1:500 (Badescu, 2008). Researchers, therefore, have to rely on indirect techniques of estimation that include nonlinear models, artificial intelligence (e.g. neural networks), remote sensing and numerical weather predictions (NWP). This study proposes a hybrid numerical prediction scheme for solar radiation estimation in un-gauged catchments. It uses the PSU/NCAR's Mesoscale Modelling system (MM5) (Grell et al., 1995) to parameterise the cloud effect on extraterrestrial radiation by dividing the atmosphere into four layers of very high (6-12 km), high (3-6 km), medium (1.5-3) and low (0-1.5) altitudes from earth. It is believed that various cloud forms exist within each of these layers. An hourly time series of upper air pressure and relative humidity data sets corresponding to all of these layers is determined for the Brue catchment, southwest UK, using MM5. Cloud Index (CI) was then determined using (Yang and Koike, 2002): 1 p?bi [ (Rh - Rh )] ci =------- max 0.0,---------cri dp pbi - ptipti (1- Rhcri) where, pbi and pti represent the air pressure at the top and bottom of each layer and Rhcri is the critical value of relative humidity at which a certain cloud type is formed. Output from a global clear sky solar radiation model (MRM v-5) (Kambezidis and Psiloglu, 2008) is used along with meteorological datasets of temperature and precipitation and astronomical information. The analysis is aided by the

  16. Three-Dimensional Reconstruction and Solar Energy Potential Estimation of Buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Y.; Li, M.; Cheng, L.; Xu, H.; Li, S.; Liu, X.

    2017-12-01

    In the context of the construction of low-carbon cities, green cities and eco-cities, the ability of the airborne and mobile LiDAR should be explored in urban renewable energy research. As the main landscape in urban environment, buildings have large regular envelopes could receive a huge amount of solar radiation. In this study, a relatively complete calculation scheme about building roof and façade solar utilization potential is proposed, using building three-dimensional geometric feature information. For measuring the city-level building solar irradiance, the precise three-dimensional building roof and façade models should be first reconstructed from the airborne and mobile LiDAR, respectively. In order to obtaining the precise geometric structure of building facades from the mobile LiDAR data, a new method for structure detection and the three-dimensional reconstruction of building façades from mobile LiDAR data is proposed. The method consists of three steps: the preprocessing of façade points, the detection of façade structure, the restoration and reconstruction of building façade. As a result, the reconstruction method can effectively deal with missing areas caused by occlusion, viewpoint limitation, and uneven point density, as well as realizing the highly complete 3D reconstruction of a building façade. Furthermore, the window areas can be excluded for more accurate estimation of solar utilization potential. After then, the solar energy utilization potential of global building roofs and facades is estimate by using the solar irradiance model, which combine the analysis of the building shade and sky diffuse, based on the analysis of the geometrical structure of buildings.

  17. Phytosterol oxidation products (POP) in foods with added phytosterols and estimation of their daily intake: A literature review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yuguang; Knol, Diny; Trautwein, Elke A

    2016-10-01

    1To evaluate the content of phytosterol oxidation products (POP) of foods with added phytosterols, in total 14 studies measuring POP contents of foods with added phytosterols were systematically reviewed. In non-heated or stored foods, POP contents were low, ranging from (medians) 0.03-3.6 mg/100 g with corresponding oxidation rates of phytosterols (ORP) of 0.03-0.06%. In fat-based foods with 8% of added free plant sterols (FPS), plant sterol esters (PSE) or plant stanol esters (PAE) pan-fried at 160-200°C for 5-10 min, median POP contents were 72.0, 38.1, and 4.9 mg/100 g, respectively, with a median ORP of 0.90, 0.48, and 0.06%. Hence resistance to thermal oxidation was in the order of PAE > PSE > FPS. POP formation was highest in enriched butter followed by margarine and rapeseed oil. In margarines with 7.5-10.5% added PSE oven-heated at 140-200°C for 5-30 min, median POP content was 0.3 mg/100 g. Further heating under same temperature conditions but for 60-120 min markedly increased POP formation to 384.3 mg/100 g. Estimated daily upper POP intake was 47.7 mg/d (equivalent to 0.69 mg/kg BW/d) for foods with added PSE and 78.3 mg/d (equivalent to 1.12 mg/kg BW/d) for foods with added FPS as calculated by multiplying the advised upper daily phytosterol intake of 3 g/d with the 90% quantile values of ORP. In conclusion, heating temperature and time, chemical form of phytosterols added and the food matrix are determinants of POP formation in foods with added phytosterols, leading to an increase in POP contents. Practical applications: Phytosterol oxidation products (POP) are formed in foods containing phytosterols especially when exposed to heat treatment. This review summarising POP contents in foods with added phytosterols in their free and esterified forms reveals that heating temperature and time, the chemical form of phytosterols added and the food matrix itself are determinants of POP formation with heating

  18. Estimate of the atmospheric turbidity from three broad-band solar radiation algorithms. A comparative study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. López

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric turbidity is an important parameter for assessing the air pollution in local areas, as well as being the main parameter controlling the attenuation of solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface under cloudless sky conditions. Among the different turbidity indices, the Ångström turbidity coefficient β is frequently used. In this work, we analyse the performance of three methods based on broad-band solar irradiance measurements in the estimation of β. The evaluation of the performance of the models was undertaken by graphical and statistical (root mean square errors and mean bias errors means. The data sets used in this study comprise measurements of broad-band solar irradiance obtained at eight radiometric stations and aerosol optical thickness measurements obtained at one co-located radiometric station. Since all three methods require estimates of precipitable water content, three common methods for calculating atmospheric precipitable water content from surface air temperature and relative humidity are evaluated. Results show that these methods exhibit significant differences for low values of precipitable water. The effect of these differences in precipitable water estimates on turbidity algorithms is discussed. Differences in hourly turbidity estimates are later examined. The effects of random errors in pyranometer measurements and cloud interferences on the performance of the models are also presented. Examination of the annual cycle of monthly mean values of β for each location has shown that all three turbidity algorithms are suitable for analysing long-term trends and seasonal patterns.

  19. Estimate of the atmospheric turbidity from three broad-band solar radiation algorithms. A comparative study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. López

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric turbidity is an important parameter for assessing the air pollution in local areas, as well as being the main parameter controlling the attenuation of solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface under cloudless sky conditions. Among the different turbidity indices, the Ångström turbidity coefficient β is frequently used. In this work, we analyse the performance of three methods based on broad-band solar irradiance measurements in the estimation of β. The evaluation of the performance of the models was undertaken by graphical and statistical (root mean square errors and mean bias errors means. The data sets used in this study comprise measurements of broad-band solar irradiance obtained at eight radiometric stations and aerosol optical thickness measurements obtained at one co-located radiometric station. Since all three methods require estimates of precipitable water content, three common methods for calculating atmospheric precipitable water content from surface air temperature and relative humidity are evaluated. Results show that these methods exhibit significant differences for low values of precipitable water. The effect of these differences in precipitable water estimates on turbidity algorithms is discussed. Differences in hourly turbidity estimates are later examined. The effects of random errors in pyranometer measurements and cloud interferences on the performance of the models are also presented. Examination of the annual cycle of monthly mean values of β for each location has shown that all three turbidity algorithms are suitable for analysing long-term trends and seasonal patterns.

  20. Estimate of the atmospheric turbidity from three broad-band solar radiation algorithms. A comparative study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lopez, G.; Batlles, F.J. [Dept. de Ingenieria Electrica y Termica, EPS La Rabida, Univ. de Huelva, Huelva (Spain)

    2004-07-01

    Atmospheric turbidity is an important parameter for assessing the air pollution in local areas, as well as being the main parameter controlling the attenuation of solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface under cloudless sky conditions. Among the different turbidity indices, the Aangstroem turbidity coefficient {beta} is frequently used. In this work, we analyse the performance of three methods based on broadband solar irradiance measurements in the estimation of {beta}. The evaluation of the performance of the models was undertaken by graphical and statistical (root mean square errors and mean bias errors) means. The data sets used in this study comprise measurements of broad-band solar irradiance obtained at eight radiometric stations and aerosol optical thickness measurements obtained at one co-located radiometric station. Since all three methods require estimates of precipitable water content, three common methods for calculating atmospheric precipitable water content from surface air temperature and relative humidity are evaluated. Results show that these methods exhibit significant differences for low values of precipitable water. The effect of these differences in precipitable water estimates on turbidity algorithms is discussed. Differences in hourly turbidity estimates are later examined. The effects of random errors in pyranometer measurements and cloud interferences on the performance of the models are also presented. Examination of the annual cycle of monthly mean values of {beta} for each location has shown that all three turbidity algorithms are suitable for analysing long-term trends and seasonal patterns. (orig.)

  1. A Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous (NARX Neural Network Model for the Prediction of the Daily Direct Solar Radiation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zina Boussaada

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The solar photovoltaic (PV energy has an important place among the renewable energy sources. Therefore, several researchers have been interested by its modelling and its prediction, in order to improve the management of the electrical systems which include PV arrays. Among the existing techniques, artificial neural networks have proved their performance in the prediction of the solar radiation. However, the existing neural network models don’t satisfy the requirements of certain specific situations such as the one analyzed in this paper. The aim of this research work is to supply, with electricity, a race sailboat using exclusively renewable sources. The developed solution predicts the direct solar radiation on a horizontal surface. For that, a Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous (NARX neural network is used. All the specific conditions of the sailboat operation are taken into account. The results show that the best prediction performance is obtained when the training phase of the neural network is performed periodically.

  2. Estimation of daily aluminum intake in Japan based on food consumption inspection results: impact of food additives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, Kyoko; Suzuki, Ippei; Kubota, Hiroki; Furusho, Noriko; Inoue, Tomoyuki; Yasukouchi, Yoshikazu; Akiyama, Hiroshi

    2014-01-01

    Dietary aluminum (Al) intake by young children, children, youths, and adults in Japan was estimated using the market basket method. The Al content of food category (I–VII) samples for each age group was determined by inductively coupled plasma-atomic emission spectrometry (ICP-AES). The Al content in processed foods and unprocessed foods ranged from 0.40 to 21.7 mg/kg and from 0.32 to 0.54 mg/kg, respectively. For processed foods in all age groups, the Al content in food category VI samples, sugar and confections/savories, was the highest, followed by those in category II, cereals. The daily dietary Al intake from processed foods was much larger than that from unprocessed foods. The mean weekly percentages of the provisional tolerable weekly intake (PTWI, established by the joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives in 2011) from processed foods for all age groups are 43.1, 22.4, 17.6 and 15.1%, respectively. Only the highest consumer Al exposure value (>P95) of the young children group exceeded the PTWI. PMID:25473496

  3. A comparison of the Angstrom-type correlations and the estimation of monthly average daily global irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jain, S.; Jain, P.C.

    1985-12-01

    Linear regression analysis of the monthly average daily global irradiation and the sunshine duration data of 8 Zambian locations has been performed using the least square technique. Good correlation (r>0.95) is obtained in all the cases showing that the Angstrom equation is valid for Zambian locations. The values of the correlation parameters thus obtained show substantial unsystematic scatter. The analysis was repeated after incorporating the effects of (i) multiple reflections of radiation between the ground and the atmosphere, and (ii) not burning of the sunshine recorder chart, into the Angstrom equation. The surface albedo measurements at Lusaka were used. The scatter in the correlation parameters was investigated by graphical representation, by regression analysis of the data of the individual stations as well as the combined data of the 8 stations. The results show that the incorporation of none of the two effects reduces the scatter significantly. A single linear equation obtained from the regression analysis of the combined data of the 8 stations is found to be appropriate for estimating the global irradiation over Zambian locations with reasonable accuracy from the sunshine duration data. (author)

  4. Occurrence of Methylmercury in Rice-Based Infant Cereals and Estimation of Daily Dietary Intake of Methylmercury for Infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Wenbin; Liu, Guangliang; Bezerra, Mayara; Lagos, Danielle A; Li, Yanbin; Cai, Yong

    2017-11-08

    Recent reports of elevated levels of methylmercury (MeHg) in rice revealed the possible occurrence of MeHg in infant rice cereals, leading to potential MeHg exposure through cereal consumption. Total mercury (THg) and MeHg levels in 119 infant cereal samples commonly marketed in the United States and China and estimated daily intake of MeHg through cereal consumption were determined. Concentrations of THg and MeHg in the tested cereal samples ranged from 0.35 to 15.9 μg/kg and from 0.07 to 13.9 μg/kg with means of 2.86 and 1.61 μg/kg, respectively. Rice-based cereals contained MeHg levels significantly higher than those of nonrice cereals, indicating that MeHg in rice could be source of MeHg in cereals. Cereal consumption could be a potential pathway of MeHg exposure for infants, as the EDI through cereal consumption amounted to 4-122% of the MeHg reference dose, suggesting the necessity of further evaluation of the potential health risk of dietary MeHg exposure to infants.

  5. Predictive Control Applied to a Solar Desalination Plant Connected to a Greenhouse with Daily Variation of Irrigation Water Demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lidia Roca

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The water deficit in the Mediterranean area is a known matter severely affecting agriculture. One way to avoid the aquifers’ exploitation is to supply water to crops by using thermal desalination processes. Moreover, in order to guarantee long-term sustainability, the required thermal energy for the desalination process can be provided by solar energy. This paper shows simulations for a case study in which a solar multi-effect distillation plant produces water for irrigation purposes. Detailed models of the involved systems are the base of a predictive controller to operate the desalination plant and fulfil the water demanded by the crops.

  6. Estimation of the Global Solar Energy Potential and Photovoltaic Cost with the use of Open Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Athina Korfiati

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available There is an increasing demand for renewable electricity sources, due to the global efforts to reduce CO2 emissions. Despite the promising effects, only a limited amount of electricity is currently produced globally from solar power. In order to help countries realize the importance of tapping into solar energy, it is crucial to reveal the potential amount of electricity that could be thus produced. For this reason, open data were used to produce an interactive web map of the global solar energy potential. For the calculation of the potential, the top-down approach, generally used in the literature, was modified by introducing a better way of calculating rooftop areas, and accounting for temperature, which highly reduces PV panels’ efficiency. Mean annual temperature data were introduced to improve its accuracy, and an approach to estimate rooftop and façade areas as a function of GDP was developed. The current global solar potential technically available was estimated at about 613 PWh/y. Furthermore, the cost of photovoltaic generation was computed and extremely low values, 0.03 - 0.2 $/kWh, were derived.

  7. Empirical models validation to estimate global solar irradiance on a horizontal plan in Ouargla, Algeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gougui, Abdelmoumen; Djafour, Ahmed; Khelfaoui, Narimane; Boutelli, Halima

    2018-05-01

    In this paper a comparison between three models for predicting the total solar flux falling on a horizontal surface has been processed. Capderou, Perrin & Brichambaut and Hottel models used to estimate the global solar radiation, the models are identified and evaluated using MATLAB environment. The recorded data have been obtained from a small weather station installed at the LAGE laboratory of Ouargla University, Algeria. Solar radiation data have been recorded using four sample days, every 15thday of the month, (March, April, May and October). The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Correlation Coefficient (CC) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) have been also calculated so as that to test the reliability of the proposed models. A comparisons between the measured and the calculated values have been made. The results obtained in this study depict that Perrin & Brichambaut and Capderou models are more effective to estimate the total solar intensity on a horizontal surface for clear sky over Ouargla city (Latitude of 31° 95' N, Longitude of 5° 24' E, and Altitude of 0.141km above Mean Sea Level), these models dedicated from meteorological parameters, geographical location and number of days since the first January. Perrin & Brichambaut and Capderou models give the best tendency with a CC of 0.985-0.999 and 0.932-0.995 consecutively further, Hottel give's a CC of 0.617-0.942.

  8. Measurement of Global Solar Radiation data using Raspberry Pi and its estimation using Genetic Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Priya S.Shanmuga

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The demand for more efficient and environmentally benign, non-conventional sources of energy came into picture due to increasing demands for human comforts. Solar energy is now the ultimate option. In this paper, the instruments used to measure the solar radiation at Innovation Centre, MIT Manipal were connected to a Raspberry Pi to access the data remotely. Genetic Algorithms were formulated, so that the monthly mean global solar radiation in Manipal can be effectively estimated. Meteorological data such as humidity, temperature, wind speed, etc. were used as inputs to train the networks. A successful network was made between the data loggers and the Raspberry Pi. The data collected by the data loggers from the devices are transmitted to the Raspberry Pi which in turn sends the data to an internal server. The Raspberry Pi can be accessed using any SSH client such as PuTTY. The meteorological data was collected for the years 2010-2014 in order to formulate the Artificial Intelligence models. The validity of the formulated models were checked by comparing the measured data with the estimated data using tools such as RMSE, correlation coefficient, etc. The modelling of solar radiation using GA was carried out in GeneXpro tools version 5.0.

  9. Open solar flux estimates from near-Earth measurements of the interplanetary magnetic field: comparison of the first two perihelion passes of the Ulysses spacecraft

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Lockwood

    2004-04-01

    Full Text Available Results from all phases of the orbits of the Ulysses spacecraft have shown that the magnitude of the radial component of the heliospheric field is approximately independent of heliographic latitude. This result allows the use of near-Earth observations to compute the total open flux of the Sun. For example, using satellite observations of the interplanetary magnetic field, the average open solar flux was shown to have risen by 29% between 1963 and 1987 and using the aa geomagnetic index it was found to have doubled during the 20th century. It is therefore important to assess fully the accuracy of the result and to check that it applies to all phases of the solar cycle. The first perihelion pass of the Ulysses spacecraft was close to sunspot minimum, and recent data from the second perihelion pass show that the result also holds at solar maximum. The high level of correlation between the open flux derived from the various methods strongly supports the Ulysses discovery that the radial field component is independent of latitude. We show here that the errors introduced into open solar flux estimates by assuming that the heliospheric field's radial component is independent of latitude are similar for the two passes and are of order 25% for daily values, falling to 5% for averaging timescales of 27 days or greater. We compare here the results of four methods for estimating the open solar flux with results from the first and second perehelion passes by Ulysses. We find that the errors are lowest (1–5% for averages over the entire perehelion passes lasting near 320 days, for near-Earth methods, based on either interplanetary magnetic field observations or the aa geomagnetic activity index. The corresponding errors for the Solanki et al. (2000 model are of the order of 9–15% and for the PFSS method, based on solar magnetograms, are of the order of 13–47%. The model of Solanki et al. is based on the continuity equation of open flux, and uses the

  10. A Novel Method for Age Estimation in Solar-Type Stars Through GALEX FUV Magnitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Kelly; Subramonian, Arjun; Smith, Graeme; Shouru Shieh

    2018-01-01

    Utilizing an inverse association known to exist between Galaxy Evolution Explorer (GALEX) far ultraviolet (FUV) magnitudes and the chromospheric activity of F, G, and K dwarfs, we explored a method of age estimation in solar-type stars through GALEX FUV magnitudes. Sample solar-type star data were collected from refereed publications and filtered by B-V and absolute visual magnitude to ensure similarities in temperature and luminosity to the Sun. We determined FUV-B and calculated a residual index Q for all the stars, using the temperature-induced upper bound on FUV-B as the fiducial. Plotting current age estimates for the stars against Q, we discovered a strong and significant association between the variables. By applying a log-linear transformation to the data to produce a strong correlation between Q and loge Age, we confirmed the association between Q and age to be exponential. Thus, least-squares regression was used to generate an exponential model relating Q to age in solar-type stars, which can be used by astronomers. The Q-method of stellar age estimation is simple and more efficient than existing spectroscopic methods and has applications to galactic archaeology and stellar chemical composition analysis.

  11. UD-WCMA: An Energy Estimation and Forecast Scheme for Solar Powered Wireless Sensor Networks

    KAUST Repository

    Dehwah, Ahmad H.

    2017-04-11

    Energy estimation and forecast represents an important role for energy management in solar-powered wireless sensor networks (WSNs). In general, the energy in such networks is managed over a finite time horizon in the future based on input solar power forecasts to enable continuous operation of the WSNs and achieve the sensing objectives while ensuring that no node runs out of energy. In this article, we propose a dynamic version of the weather conditioned moving average technique (UD-WCMA) to estimate and predict the variations of the solar power in a wireless sensor network. The presented approach combines the information from the real-time measurement data and a set of stored profiles representing the energy patterns in the WSNs location to update the prediction model. The UD-WCMA scheme is based on adaptive weighting parameters depending on the weather changes which makes it flexible compared to the existing estimation schemes without any precalibration. A performance analysis has been performed considering real irradiance profiles to assess the UD-WCMA prediction accuracy. Comparative numerical tests to standard forecasting schemes (EWMA, WCMA, and Pro-Energy) shows the outperformance of the new algorithm. The experimental validation has proven the interesting features of the UD-WCMA in real time low power sensor nodes.

  12. Development of an Advanced Grid-Connected PV-ECS System Considering Solar Energy Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Md. Habibur; Yamashiro, Susumu; Nakamura, Koichi

    In this paper, the development and the performance of a viable distributed grid-connected power generation system of Photovoltaic-Energy Capacitor System (PV-ECS) considering solar energy estimation have been described. Instead of conventional battery Electric Double Layer Capacitors (EDLC) are used as storage device and Photovoltaic (PV) panel to generate power from solar energy. The system can generate power by PV, store energy when the demand of load is low and finally supply the stored energy to load during the period of peak demand. To realize the load leveling function properly the system will also buy power from grid line when load demand is high. Since, the power taken from grid line depends on the PV output power, a procedure has been suggested to estimate the PV output power by calculating solar radiation. In order to set the optimum value of the buy power, a simulation program has also been developed. Performance of the system has been studied for different load patterns in different weather conditions by using the estimated PV output power with the help of the simulation program.

  13. Soil moisture estimation using reflected solar and emitted thermal infrared radiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, R. D.; Cihlar, J.; Estes, J. E.; Heilman, J. L.; Kahle, A.; Kanemasu, E. T.; Millard, J.; Price, J. C.; Wiegand, C. L.

    1978-01-01

    Classical methods of measuring soil moisture such as gravimetric sampling and the use of neutron moisture probes are useful for cases where a point measurement is sufficient to approximate the water content of a small surrounding area. However, there is an increasing need for rapid and repetitive estimations of soil moisture over large areas. Remote sensing techniques potentially have the capability of meeting this need. The use of reflected-solar and emitted thermal-infrared radiation, measured remotely, to estimate soil moisture is examined.

  14. Evaluating the use of sharpened land surface temperature for daily evapotranspiration estimation over irrigated crops in arid lands

    KAUST Repository

    Rosas, Jorge

    2014-12-01

    Satellite remote sensing provides data on land surface characteristics, useful for mapping land surface energy fluxes and evapotranspiration (ET). Land-surface temperature (LST) derived from thermal infrared (TIR) satellite data has been reliably used as a remote indicator of ET and surface moisture status. However, TIR imagery usually operates at a coarser resolution than that of shortwave sensors on the same satellite platform, making it sometimes unsuitable for monitoring of field-scale crop conditions. This study applies the data mining sharpener (DMS; Gao et al., 2012) technique to data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), which sharpens the 1 km thermal data down to the resolution of the optical data (250-500 m) based on functional LST and reflectance relationships established using a flexible regression tree approach. The DMS approach adopted here has been enhanced/refined for application over irrigated farming areas located in harsh desert environments in Saudi Arabia. The sharpened LST data is input to an integrated modeling system that uses the Atmosphere-Land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) model and associated flux disaggregation scheme (DisALEXI) in conjunction with model reanalysis data and remotely sensed data from polar orbiting (MODIS) and geostationary (MSG; Meteosat Second Generation) satellite platforms to facilitate daily estimates of evapotranspiration. Results are evaluated against available flux tower observations over irrigated maize near Riyadh in Saudi Arabia. Successful monitoring of field-scale changes in surface fluxes are of importance towards an efficient water use in areas where fresh water resources are scarce and poorly monitored. Gao, F.; Kustas, W.P.; Anderson, M.C. A Data Mining Approach for Sharpening Thermal Satellite Imagery over Land. Remote Sens. 2012, 4, 3287-3319.

  15. Pyrethroids in chicken eggs from commercial farms and home production in Rio de Janeiro: Estimated daily intake and diastereomeric selectivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parente, Cláudio E T; Lestayo, Julliana; Guida, Yago S; Azevedo-Silva, Claudio E; Torres, João Paulo M; Meire, Rodrigo O; Malm, Olaf

    2017-10-01

    In this study, pyrethroids were determined in chicken eggs from commercial farm (n = 60) and home egg production (n = 30). These pyrethroids were investigated: bifenthrin, phenothrin, permethrin, cyfluthrin, cypermethrin and fenvalerate, including most diastereomers. Quantification was done using GC-MS in a negative chemical ionization mode. Pyrethroids residues were found in 79% of the analyzed samples. Cypermethrin presented the highest occurrence, being quantified in 62 samples (69%) in concentrations (lipid weight - l w.) varying between 0.29 and 6408 ng g -1 , followed by phenothrin (24%), 21-3910 ng g -1 , permethrin (14%), 2.96-328 ng g -1 , and bifenthrin (11%), 3.77-16.7 ng g -1 . Cyfluthrin and fenvalerate were not detected. Home-produced eggs had a higher occurrence of pyrethroids (97%), with a greater predominance of phenothrin. In commercial production, 70% of the samples presented pyrethroid residues (predominantly cypermethrin). This is the first report about the presence of pyrethroids in home-produced eggs and the first description of a selectivity pattern with the predominance of cis diastereomers in chicken eggs. In general, estimated daily intake does not present a risk to human consumption, according to Brazilian and international standards (FAO/WHO). However, one third of the samples (30 eggs) had concentrations above the maximum residue limits (MRLs). The maximum cypermethrin concentration was 66 times the MRL, while the maximum phenothrin concentration was 11 times the limit. Further studies about transfer dynamics, bioaccumulation and metabolic degradation of stereoisomers are required, as well as determining if this selectivity pattern in food can increase consumer's health risk. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. The importance of the chosen technique to estimate diffuse solar radiation by means of regression

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arslan, Talha; Altyn Yavuz, Arzu [Department of Statistics. Science and Literature Faculty. Eskisehir Osmangazi University (Turkey)], email: mtarslan@ogu.edu.tr, email: aaltin@ogu.edu.tr; Acikkalp, Emin [Department of Mechanical and Manufacturing Engineering. Engineering Faculty. Bilecik University (Turkey)], email: acikkalp@gmail.com

    2011-07-01

    The Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method is one of the most frequently used for estimation of diffuse solar radiation. The data set must provide certain assumptions for the OLS method to work. The most important is that the regression equation offered by OLS error terms must fit within the normal distribution. Utilizing an alternative robust estimator to get parameter estimations is highly effective in solving problems where there is a lack of normal distribution due to the presence of outliers or some other factor. The purpose of this study is to investigate the value of the chosen technique for the estimation of diffuse radiation. This study described alternative robust methods frequently used in applications and compared them with the OLS method. Making a comparison of the data set analysis of the OLS and that of the M Regression (Huber, Andrews and Tukey) techniques, it was study found that robust regression techniques are preferable to OLS because of the smoother explanation values.

  17. Radiative transfer model for estimation of global solar radiation; Modelo de transferencia radiativa para la estimacion de la radiacion solar global

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pettazzi, A.; Sabon, C. S.; Souto, G. J. A.

    2004-07-01

    In this work, the efficiency of a radiative transfer model in estimating the annual solar global radiation has been evaluated, over different locations at Galicia, Spain, in clear sky periods. Due to its quantitative significance, special attention has been focused on the analysis of the influence of visibility over the global radiation. By comparison of both estimated and measured global solar radiation along year 2002, a typical annual visibility series was obtained over every location. These visibility values has been analysed in order to identify patterns and typical values, in order to be used to estimate the global solar radiation along a different year. Validation was done over the year 2003, obtaining an annual estimation less than 10 % different to the measured value. (Author)

  18. Estimation of solar collector area for water heating in buildings of Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manoj Kumar, Nallapaneni; Sudhakar, K.; Samykano, M.

    2018-04-01

    Solar thermal energy (STE) utilization for water heating at various sectorial levels became popular and still growing especially for buildings in the residential area. This paper aims to study and identify the solar collector area needed based on the user requirements in an efficient manner. A step by step mathematical approach is followed to estimate the area in Sq. m. Four different cases each having different hot water temperatures (45°, 50°C, 55°C, and 60°C) delivered by the solar water heating system (SWHS) for typical residential application at Kuala Lumpur City, Malaysia is analysed for the share of hot and cold water mix. As the hot water temperature levels increased the share of cold water mix is increased to satisfy the user requirement temperature, i.e. 40°C. It is also observed that as the share of hot water mix is reduced, the collector area can also be reduced. Following this methodology at the installation stage would help both the user and installers in the effective use of the solar resource.

  19. Assessing the transferability of support vector machine model for estimation of global solar radiation from air temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Ji-Long; Li, Guo-Sheng; Xiao, Bei-Bei; Wen, Zhao-Fei; Lv, Ming-Quan; Chen, Chun-Di; Jiang, Yi; Wang, Xiao-Xiao; Wu, Sheng-Jun

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Transferability of SVM in estimation of solar radiation is investigated. • Radiation at estimation site could be well estimated by SVM developed at source site. • A strategy for selecting a suitable source site is presented. • SVM accuracy is affected by distance and temperature difference between two sites. • RMSE of SVM shows logarithm or linearly relationship with altitude of source site. - Abstract: Exploring novel methods for estimation of global solar radiation from air temperature has been being a focus in many studies. This paper evaluates the transferability of support vector machines (SVM) for estimation of solar radiation in subtropical zone in China. Results suggest that solar radiation at one site (estimation site) could be well estimated by SVM model developed at another site (source site). The accuracy of estimation is affected by the distance and temperature difference between two sites, and altitude of source site. Higher correlations between RMSE of SVM and distance, and temperature differences are observed in northeastern region, increasing the reliability and confidence of SVM model developed at nearby stations. While lower correlations between RMSE and distance, and temperature differences are observed in southwest plateau region. When the altitude of estimation site is lower than 1200 m, RMSE show logarithm relationship with altitude of source sites where the altitude are lower than that of estimation site. Otherwise, RMSE show linearly relationship with altitude of source sites where the altitude are higher than 200 m but lower than that of the estimation site. This result suggests that solar radiation could be also estimated using SVM model developed at the site with similar but lower altitude. Based on these results, a strategy that takes into account the climatic conditions, topography, distance, and altitude for selecting a suitable source site is presented. The findings can guide and ease the appropriate choice of

  20. A comparison of daily water use estimates derived from constant-heat sap-flow probe values and gravimetric measurements in pot-grown saplings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    K.A. McCulloh; K. Winter; F.C. Meinzer; M. Garcia; J. Aranda; Lachenbruch B.

    2007-01-01

    The use of Granier-style heat dissipation sensors to measure sap flow is common in plant physiology, ecology, and hydrology. There has been concern that any change to the original Granier design invalidates the empirical relationship between sap flux density and the temperature difference between the probes. We compared daily water use estimates from gravimetric...

  1. Optical losses due to tracking error estimation for a low concentrating solar collector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sallaberry, Fabienne; García de Jalón, Alberto; Torres, José-Luis; Pujol-Nadal, Ramón

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A solar thermal collector with low concentration and one-axis tracking was tested. • A quasi-dynamic testing procedure for IAM was defined for tracking collector. • The adequation between the concentrator optics and the tracking was checked. • The maximum and long-term optical losses due to tracking error were calculated. - Abstract: The determination of the accuracy of a solar tracker used in domestic hot water solar collectors is not yet standardized. However, while using optical concentration devices, it is important to use a solar tracker with adequate precision with regard to the specific optical concentration factor. Otherwise, the concentrator would sustain high optical losses due to the inadequate focusing of the solar radiation onto its receiver, despite having a good quality. This study is focused on the estimation of long-term optical losses due to the tracking error of a low-temperature collector using low-concentration optics. For this purpose, a testing procedure for the incidence angle modifier on the tracking plane is proposed to determinate the acceptance angle of its concentrator even with different longitudinal incidence angles along the focal line plane. Then, the impact of maximum tracking error angle upon the optical efficiency has been determined. Finally, the calculation of the long-term optical error due to the tracking errors, using the design angular tracking error declared by the manufacturer, is carried out. The maximum tracking error calculated for this collector imply an optical loss of about 8.5%, which is high, but the average long-term optical loss calculated for one year was about 1%, which is reasonable for such collectors used for domestic hot water

  2. An intercomparison of satellite-based daily evapotranspiration estimates under different eco-climatic regions in South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Majozi, Nobuhle P

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available ), while windspeed and direction were measured at 2.5 m height using an RM Young wind sentry (Mod l 03001—Campbell Scientific Ltd., Logan, UT, USA), a d solar irradiance was monitored using a pyranometer (Apogee Instru ents, Lo an, UT, USA). R infall... a CS500 probe (Vaisala, Helsinki, Finland), while windspeed and direction were measured at 2.5 m height using an RM Young wind sentry (Model 03001—Campbell Scientific Ltd., Logan, UT, USA), and solar irradiance was monitored using a pyranometer...

  3. Monitoring programme on nitrates in vegetables and vegetable-based baby foods marketed in the Region of Valencia, Spain: levels and estimated daily intake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pardo-Marín, O; Yusà-Pelechà, V; Villalba-Martín, P; Perez-Dasí, J A

    2010-04-01

    This study was carried out to determine the current levels of nitrates in vegetables and vegetable-based baby foods (a total of 1150 samples) marketed in the Region of Valencia, Spain, over the period 2000-2008, and to estimate the toxicological risk associated with their intake. Average (median) levels of nitrate in lettuce, iceberg-type lettuce and spinach (1156, 798 and 1410 mg kg(-1) w/w, respectively) were lower than the maximum limits established by European Union legislation. Thirteen fresh spinach samples exceeded the regulatory limits. Median nitrate values in other vegetables for which a maximum limit has not been fixed by the European Commission were 196, 203, 1597, 96, 4474 and 2572 mg kg(-1) w/w (for potato, carrot, chard, artichoke, rucola and lamb's lettuce, respectively). The estimated nitrate daily intakes through vegetables consumption for adult, extreme consumers and children were found to be about 29%, 79.8% and 15.1%, respectively, of the acceptable daily intake (3.7 mg kg(-1)). The levels (median = 60.4 mg kg(-1) w/w) found in vegetable-based baby foods were, in all cases, lower the maximum level proposed by European Union legislation. The estimated nitrate daily intake through baby foods for infants between 0-1 and 1-2 years of age were 13% and 18%, respectively, of the acceptable daily intake.

  4. Using smart meter data to estimate demand response potential, with application to solar energy integration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dyson, Mark E.H.; Borgeson, Samuel D.; Tabone, Michaelangelo D.; Callaway, Duncan S.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a new method for estimating the demand response potential of residential air conditioning (A/C), using hourly electricity consumption data (“smart meter” data) from 30,000 customer accounts in Northern California. We apply linear regression and unsupervised classification methods to hourly, whole-home consumption and outdoor air temperature data to determine the hours, if any, that each home's A/C is active, and the temperature dependence of consumption when it is active. When results from our sample are scaled up to the total population, we find a maximum of 270–360 MW (95% c.i.) of demand response potential over a 1-h duration with a 4 °F setpoint change, and up to 3.2–3.8 GW of short-term curtailment potential. The estimated resource correlates well with the evening decline of solar production on hot, summer afternoons, suggesting that demand response could potentially act as reserves for the grid during these periods in the near future with expected higher adoption rates of solar energy. Additionally, the top 5% of homes in the sample represent 40% of the total MW-hours of DR resource, suggesting that policies and programs to take advantage of this resource should target these high users to maximize cost-effectiveness. - Highlights: • We use hourly electricity use data to estimate residential demand response (DR) potential. • The residential cooling DR resource is large and well-matched to solar variability. • Customer heterogeneity is large; programs should target high potential customers

  5. A High Rated Solar Water Distillation Unit for Solar Homes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abhishek Saxena

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available India is presently focusing on complete utilization of solar energy and saving fossil fuels, which are limited. Various solar energy systems like solar cookers, solar water heaters, solar lanterns, solar PV lights, and solar lamps are continuously availing by the people of India at a low cost and on good subsidies. Apart from this, India is a solar energy promising country with a good number of solar homes (carrying solar energy systems in its various locations. The present paper focuses on a unique combination of solar dish cooker (SDC and solar water heater (SWH to produce distilled water with a high distillate and a high daily productivity. The procedure has been discussed on the basis of experimental testing to produce distilled water by combining an evacuated type SWH and a SDC. Experimentation has been carried out in MIT, Moradabad (longitude, 28.83°N, and latitude, 78.78°E by developing the same experimental setup on behalf of solar homes. The daily productivity of distilled water was found around 3.66 litres per day in full sunshine hours for an approximated pH value of 7.7 and a ppm value of 21. The payback period (PBP has been estimated around 1.16 years of the present system.

  6. Estimating the potential for solar thermal applications in the industrial process heat market 1990-2030

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demeter, C.P.; Gray, E.E.; Carwile, C.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports the results of a preliminary evaluation of the potential domestic market for solar thermal energy supply technologies matched to industrial process heat applications. The study estimates current and projects future industrial process heat demand to the year 2030 by two-digit standard industrial classification code for the manufacturing industrial sector and discusses the potential to displace conventional fossil fuel sources such as natural gas with alternative sources of supply. The PC Industrial Model, used by DOE's Energy Information Administration in support of the National Energy Strategy (NES) is used for forecast industrial energy demand. Demand is disaggregated by census region to account for geographic variations in solar insolation, and by heat medium and temperature to facilitate end-use matching with appropriate solar energy supply technologies. Levelized energy costs (LEC) are calculated for flat plate collectors for low- temperature preheat applications, parabolic troughs for intermediate temperature process steam and direct heat, and parabolic dish technologies for high-temperature, direct heat applications. LEC is also developed for a conventional natural gas-fueled Industrial Process Heat (IPH) supply source assuming natural gas price escalation consistent with NES forecasts to develop a relative figure of merit used in a market penetration model

  7. Estimation of hourly global solar irradiation on tilted planes from horizontal one using artificial neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Notton, Gilles; Paoli, Christophe; Vasileva, Siyana; Nivet, Marie Laure; Canaletti, Jean-Louis; Cristofari, Christian

    2012-01-01

    Calculating global solar irradiation from global horizontal irradiation only is a difficult task, especially when the time step is small and the data are not averaged. We used an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to realize this conversion. The ANN is optimized and tested on the basis of five years of solar data; the accuracy of the optimal configuration is around 6% for the RRMSE (relative root mean square error) and around 3.5% for the RMAE (relative mean absolute value) i.e. a better performance than the empirical correlations available in the literature. -- Highlights: ► ANN (Artificial Neural Network) methodology applied to hourly global solar irradiation in order to estimate tilted irradiations. ► Model validation with more than 23,000 data. ► Comparison with “conventional” models. ► The precision in the results is better than with empirical correlations. ► 6% for the RMSE (root means square error) and around 3.5% for the RMAE (Relative Mean Absolute Value).

  8. Methodology for predicting sequences of mean monthly clearness index and daily solar radiation data in remote areas: Application for sizing a stand-alone PV system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mellit, A. [Department of Electronics, Institute of Sciences Engineering, Centre University of Medea, Medea 26000 (Algeria); Department of Electronics, Faculty of Science Engineering, Blida University, Blida 09000 (Algeria); Kalogirou, S.A. [Higher Technical Institute, P.O. Box 20423, Nicosia 2152 (Cyprus); Shaari, S. [Faculty of Applied Sciences, Universiti Teknologi MARA 40450 Shah Alam, Selangor (Malaysia); Salhi, H. [Department of Electronics, Faculty of Science Engineering, Blida University, Blida 09000 (Algeria); Hadj Arab, A. [Development Centre of Renewable Energy (CDER), P.O. Box 62, Bouzareah, Algiers 16000 (Algeria); Departamento de Energias Renerables, CIEMAT, Arda Complutense, 22, Madrid 28040 (Spain)

    2008-07-15

    In this paper, a suitable adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model is presented for estimating sequences of mean monthly clearness index (anti K{sub t}) and total solar radiation data in isolated sites based on geographical coordinates. The magnitude of solar radiation is the most important parameter for sizing photovoltaic (PV) systems. The ANFIS model is trained by using a multi-layer perceptron (MLP) based on fuzzy logic (FL) rules. The inputs of the ANFIS are the latitude, longitude, and altitude, while the outputs are the 12-values of mean monthly clearness index anti K{sub t}. These data have been collected from 60 locations in Algeria. The results show that the performance of the proposed approach in the prediction of mean monthly clearness index anti K{sub t} is favorably compared to the measured values. The root mean square error (RMSE) between measured and estimated values varies between 0.0215 and 0.0235 and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is less than 2.2%. In addition, a comparison between the results obtained by the ANFIS model and artificial neural network (ANN) models, is presented in order to show the advantage of the proposed method. An example for sizing a stand-alone PV system is also presented. This technique has been applied to Algerian locations, but it can be generalized for any geographical position. It can also be used for estimating other meteorological parameters such as temperature, humidity and wind speed. (author)

  9. RIEGER-TYPE PERIODICITY DURING SOLAR CYCLES 14–24: ESTIMATION OF DYNAMO MAGNETIC FIELD STRENGTH IN THE SOLAR INTERIOR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gurgenashvili, Eka; Zaqarashvili, Teimuraz V.; Kukhianidze, Vasil; Ramishvili, Giorgi; Shergelashvili, Bidzina [Abastumani Astrophysical Observatory at Ilia State University, Tbilisi, Georgia (United States); Oliver, Ramon; Ballester, Jose Luis [Departament de Física, Universitat de les Illes Balears, E-07122, Palma de Mallorca (Spain); Hanslmeier, Arnold [IGAM, Institute of Physics, University of Graz, Universitätsplatz 5, A-8010 Graz (Austria); Poedts, Stefaan, E-mail: teimuraz.zaqarashvili@uni-graz.at [Centre for Mathematical Plasma Astrophysics, Department of Mathematics, KU Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 200B, B-3001, Leuven (Belgium)

    2016-07-20

    Solar activity undergoes a variation over timescales of several months known as Rieger-type periodicity, which usually occurs near maxima of sunspot cycles. An early analysis showed that the periodicity appears only in some cycles and is absent in other cycles. But the appearance/absence during different cycles has not been explained. We performed a wavelet analysis of sunspot data from the Greenwich Royal Observatory and the Royal Observatory of Belgium during cycles 14–24. We found that the Rieger-type periods occur in all cycles, but they are cycle dependent: shorter periods occur during stronger cycles. Our analysis revealed a periodicity of 185–195 days during the weak cycles 14–15 and 24 and a periodicity of 155–165 days during the stronger cycles 16–23. We derived the dispersion relation of the spherical harmonics of the magnetic Rossby waves in the presence of differential rotation and a toroidal magnetic field in the dynamo layer near the base of the convection zone. This showed that the harmonics of fast Rossby waves with m = 1 and n = 4, where m ( n ) indicates the toroidal (poloidal) wavenumbers, perfectly fit with the observed periodicity. The variation of the toroidal field strength from weaker to stronger cycles may lead to the different periods found in those cycles, which explains the observed enigmatic feature of the Rieger-type periodicity. Finally, we used the observed periodicity to estimate the dynamo field strength during cycles 14–24. Our estimations suggest a field strength of ∼40 kG for the stronger cycles and ∼20 kG for the weaker cycles.

  10. Identification of Solar Events Responsible for ICMEs at 1AU - Estimation of Chirality and Helicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulrich, Roger K.; tran, Tham; Riley, Pete

    2017-08-01

    We start with the table of identified interplanetary magnetic clouds provided by the WIND/SWI project at https://wind.gsfc.nasa.gov/mfi/mag_cloud_S1.html .Our procedure uses the following steps:1) We take candidates observed during the HMI era from the above catalogue.2) We average cloud start and end times.3) We subtract an estimated travel time to get an origin time.4) We find a halo or partial halo CME near the origin time using the CDAW catalogue.5) We estimate a quadrant for the solar event from the CME shape.6) We use the jHelioviewer on AIA 173 differences with a 5 minute cadence to find an ejected loop near the origin time.7) We place the foot points near the locations of maxima and minima of Br (i.e. the strongest fields of opposite sign).8) We find the field gradients such as (curl B)r at these points.The above steps have been applied to the 37 clouds listed in the MFI table for the period 2011 to 2012 with the result that only 7 clouds could be identified and clearly associated with solar surface origination points. The MFI table includes an estimation of the cloud chirality. Transverse magnetic fields on the solar surface can be determinedfrom the observations of the HMI instrument on the SDO spacecraft in two different ways: the standard HMI pipeline or the Ulrich - Boyden method. The Ulrich - Boyden method gives the correct chirality for all 7 cases while the standard pipeline gives the correct chirality for 6 of the 7 clouds.The clouds are belowAR Solar Source HelicityMFI Number Source Day/Hr Coord Pred Obs129 11158 11/02/15:02:24 S22W09-S18W18 L L133 11226 11/06/01:18:36 S21E19-S19E15 R R134 11226-11227 11/06/02:07:41 S20E26-S21E16 R R138 11289-11293 11/09/13:23:12 N23W13-N17W23 L L148 11504 12/06/14:14:12 S16E11-S16E03 R R154 11560-11561 12/09/02:04:00 N01W04-N05W11 L L161 11610 12/11/10:05:12 S24E11-S20E07 R RThis research has been supported by NASA through award NNX15AF39G to Predictive Science, Inc. and subaward to UCLA

  11. Estimation of solar energy resources for low salinity water desalination in several regions of Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarasenko, A. B.; Kiseleva, S. V.; Shakun, V. P.; Gabderakhmanova, T. S.

    2018-01-01

    This paper focuses on estimation of demanded photovoltaic (PV) array areas and capital expenses to feed a reverse osmosis desalination unit (1 m3/day fresh water production rate). The investigation have been made for different climatic conditions of Russia using regional data on ground water salinity from different sources and empirical dependence of specific energy consumption on salinity and temperature. The most optimal results were obtained for Krasnodar, Volgograd, Crimea Republic and some other southern regions. Combination of salinity, temperature and solar radiation level there makes reverse osmosis coupled with photovoltaics very attractive to solve infrastructure problems in rural areas. Estimation results are represented as maps showing PV array areas and capital expenses for selected regions.

  12. An estimation of global solar p-mode frequencies from IRIS network data: 1989-1996

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serebryanskiy, A.; Ehgamberdiev, Sh.; Kholikov, Sh.; Fossat, E.; Gelly, B.; Schmider, F. X.; Grec, G.; Cacciani, A.; Palle, P. L.; Lazrek, M.; Hoeksema, J. T.

    2001-06-01

    The IRIS network has accumulated full disk helioseismological data since July 1989, i.e. a complete 11-year solar cycle. Since the last paper publishing a frequency list [A&A 317 (1997) L71], not only has the network acquired new data, but has also developed new co-operative programs with compatible instruments [Abstr. SOHO 6/GONG 98 Workshop (1998) 51], so that merging IRIS files with these co-operative program data sets has made possible the improvement of the overall duty cycle. This paper presents new estimations of low degree p-mode frequencies obtained from this IRIS++ data bank covering the period 1989-1996, as well as the variation of their main parameters along the total range of magnetic activity, from before the last maximum to the very minimum. A preliminary estimation of the peak profile asymmetries is also included.

  13. Fumonisins B1 and B2 in the corn-milling process and corn-based products, and evaluation of estimated daily intake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savi, Geovana D; Piacentini, Karim C; Marchi, Djeini; Scussel, Vildes M

    2016-01-01

    The distribution of fumonisins (FBs: FB1 and FB2) in the corn-milling process and in corn-based products, as well as daily intake estimates for the Brazilian population were evaluated. Among corn fractions samples, corn meal had the highest mean concentration of FB1 (1305 µg kg(-1)) and FB2 (651 µg kg(-1)) and a distribution factors of 452% and 256% in relation to corn grain, respectively. On the other hand, the distribution factor of FB1 and FB2 in corn flour was found to be 144% and 88% respectively, which demonstrates that fumonisins in this fraction were reduced compared with corn grain. As a result, almost half the corn meal samples (47%) would be non-compliant with future Brazilian regulation (2017) for fumonisins. However, corn-based products, such as corn flakes and popcorn, were in compliance with the regulation. The average probable daily intake and maximum probable daily intake of fumonisins estimated for the Santa Catarina state (Brazil) population were below the provisional maximum tolerable daily intake of 2 µg kg(-1) body weight day(-1) for all corn samples. Despite this, the adoption of practices to control the occurrence of fumonisins should be applied to the corn-milling fractions that may contain a higher concentration of this toxin, such as corn meal, often used for animal feed in Brazil.

  14. A new approach to estimate the spatial distribution of solar radiation using topographic factor and sunshine duration in South Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Jin-Ki; Das, Amrita; Park, Jong-Hwa

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Our goal is to create a map of solar radiation using sunshine hours and topography. • We found the empirical models based on sunshine hours performs significantly well. • The effect of topography on radiation is more significant in winter than summer. • Topographical impact is totally opposite in north and south facing terrain. • Though the extraterrestrial solar radiation flux is highest in June, at ground observed radiation is higher in May. - Abstract: Solar radiation is one of the important renewable resources, currently scientists are taking their interest in. Accurate solar radiation data is not only required for solar-power management but also is a vital input parameter in different biogeochemical and atmospheric models. But there are inadequate number of stations measuring solar radiation in comparison to stations dedicated for sunshine duration, temperature, humidity etc. Therefore, to overcome this problem, an empirical model is developed to estimate solar radiation from sunshine duration data over South Korea. As more than 50% of the area in Korean peninsula have a complex terrain, a topographical factor is applied to modeled data. Thereafter a map presenting monthly mean variation in incoming solar insolation is constructed using ordinary kriging method. The influence of topographical features like slope and aspect is found to be higher in winter than summer. Solar radiation is highest in May and lowest in December over Korea. Spatial variation of incoming radiation is mainly influenced by topographical and atmospheric features whereas latitudinal gradient is almost insignificant

  15. Calculation of solar irradiation prediction intervals combining volatility and kernel density estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trapero, Juan R.

    2016-01-01

    In order to integrate solar energy into the grid it is important to predict the solar radiation accurately, where forecast errors can lead to significant costs. Recently, the increasing statistical approaches that cope with this problem is yielding a prolific literature. In general terms, the main research discussion is centred on selecting the “best” forecasting technique in accuracy terms. However, the need of the users of such forecasts require, apart from point forecasts, information about the variability of such forecast to compute prediction intervals. In this work, we will analyze kernel density estimation approaches, volatility forecasting models and combination of both of them in order to improve the prediction intervals performance. The results show that an optimal combination in terms of prediction interval statistical tests can achieve the desired confidence level with a lower average interval width. Data from a facility located in Spain are used to illustrate our methodology. - Highlights: • This work explores uncertainty forecasting models to build prediction intervals. • Kernel density estimators, exponential smoothing and GARCH models are compared. • An optimal combination of methods provides the best results. • A good compromise between coverage and average interval width is shown.

  16. Estimation of the charge quantity from solar cell to battery; Taiyo denchi ni yoru chikudenchi eno juden yosoku

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tsutsumi, K; Nishitani, M [Daiichi University, College of Technology, Kagoshima (Japan)

    1996-10-27

    In performing an experiment of running a small electric vehicle by installing solar cells in it and by charging the storage battery at a specific voltage, an estimation was made on the charge quantity to the battery for each solar altitude and inclination of a module at different hours. The solar altitude was determined at Daiichi University, College of Technology, according to the month and the time of day from a formula using day-declination and time equation of a chronological table of science. The quantity of global solar radiation was determined by resolving the solar radiation into its direct and diffuse components on the basis of the extra-terrestrial solar radiation quantity with the change in radius vector taken into consideration; and then, the global solar radiation on the inclined face was obtained from the angle of inclination and incidence. On the roof of a Daiichi University building, solar cell modules were installed facing north and south at 0{degree}, 30{degree}, 45{degree}, 60{degree} and 90{degree} each, so that a short-circuit current was measured for each differently inclined angle. As a result of the experiment, shown in an regression formula is a relation between the temperature conversion value of the maximum output of the solar cell at the standard temperature of 25{degree}C and the quantity of solar radiation on the inclined surface. Consequently, it enabled the prediction of a charging quantity, in the case of running a small vehicle with solar cells installed, from the quantity of solar radiation on the inclined surface in the clear weather. 2 refs., 4 figs., 2 tabs.

  17. Evaluation of precipitation estimates over CONUS derived from satellite, radar, and rain gauge data sets at daily to annual scales (2002-2012)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prat, O. P.; Nelson, B. R.

    2015-04-01

    We use a suite of quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) derived from satellite, radar, and surface observations to derive precipitation characteristics over the contiguous United States (CONUS) for the period 2002-2012. This comparison effort includes satellite multi-sensor data sets (bias-adjusted TMPA 3B42, near-real-time 3B42RT), radar estimates (NCEP Stage IV), and rain gauge observations. Remotely sensed precipitation data sets are compared with surface observations from the Global Historical Climatology Network-Daily (GHCN-D) and from the PRISM (Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model). The comparisons are performed at the annual, seasonal, and daily scales over the River Forecast Centers (RFCs) for CONUS. Annual average rain rates present a satisfying agreement with GHCN-D for all products over CONUS (±6%). However, differences at the RFC are more important in particular for near-real-time 3B42RT precipitation estimates (-33 to +49%). At annual and seasonal scales, the bias-adjusted 3B42 presented important improvement when compared to its near-real-time counterpart 3B42RT. However, large biases remained for 3B42 over the western USA for higher average accumulation (≥ 5 mm day-1) with respect to GHCN-D surface observations. At the daily scale, 3B42RT performed poorly in capturing extreme daily precipitation (> 4 in. day-1) over the Pacific Northwest. Furthermore, the conditional analysis and a contingency analysis conducted illustrated the challenge in retrieving extreme precipitation from remote sensing estimates.

  18. Comparison of Regression and Neural Networks Models to Estimate Solar Radiation Comparación de Regresión y Modelos de Redes Neuronales para Estimar la Radiación Solar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mónica Bocco

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The incident solar radiation on soil is an important variable used in agricultural applications; it is also relevant in hydrology, meteorology and soil physics, among others. To estimate this variable, empirical models have been developed using several parameters and, recently, prognostic and prediction models based on artificial intelligence techniques such as neural networks. The aim of this work was to develop linear models and neural networks, multilayer perceptron, to estimate daily global solar radiation and compare their efficiency in its application to a region of the Province of Salta, Argentina. Relative sunshine duration, maximum and minimum temperature, rainfall, binary rainfall and extraterrestrial solar radiation data for the period 1996-2002, were used. All data were supplied by Experimental Station Salta, Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA, Argentina. For both, neural networks models and linear regressions, three alternative combinations of meteorological parameters were considered. Good results with both prediction methods were obtained, with root mean square error (RMSE values between 1.99 and 1.66 MJ m-2 d-1 for linear regressions and neural networks, and coefficients of correlation (r² between 0.88 and 0.92, respectively. Even though neural networks and linear regression models can be used to predict the daily global solar radiation appropriately, neural networks produced better estimates.La radiación solar incidente en el suelo es una variable importante usada en aplicaciones agronómicas, además es relevante en hidrología, meteorología y física del suelo, entre otros. Para estimarla se han desarrollado modelos empíricos que utilizan distintos parámetros meteorológicos y, recientemente, modelos de pronóstico y predicción basados en técnicas de inteligencia artificial tales como redes neuronales. El objetivo de este trabajo fue desarrollar modelos lineales y de redes neuronales, del tipo perceptr

  19. Estimating daily surface NO2 concentrations from satellite data - a case study over Hong Kong using land use regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anand, Jasdeep S.; Monks, Paul S.

    2017-07-01

    Land use regression (LUR) models have been used in epidemiology to determine the fine-scale spatial variation in air pollutants such as nitrogen dioxide (NO2) in cities and larger regions. However, they are often limited in their temporal resolution, which may potentially be rectified by employing the synoptic coverage provided by satellite measurements. In this work a mixed-effects LUR model is developed to model daily surface NO2 concentrations over the Hong Kong SAR during the period 2005-2015. In situ measurements from the Hong Kong Air Quality Monitoring Network, along with tropospheric vertical column density (VCD) data from the OMI, GOME-2A, and SCIAMACHY satellite instruments were combined with fine-scale land use parameters to provide the spatiotemporal information necessary to predict daily surface concentrations. Cross-validation with the in situ data shows that the mixed-effects LUR model using OMI data has a high predictive power (adj. R2 = 0. 84), especially when compared with surface concentrations derived using the MACC-II reanalysis model dataset (adj. R2 = 0. 11). Time series analysis shows no statistically significant trend in NO2 concentrations during 2005-2015, despite a reported decline in NOx emissions. This study demonstrates the utility in combining satellite data with LUR models to derive daily maps of ambient surface NO2 for use in exposure studies.

  20. Estimation of Daily Proteinuria in Patients with Amyloidosis by Using the Protein-To-Creatinine ratio in Random Urine Samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Talamo, Giampaolo; Mir Muhammad, A; Pandey, Manoj K; Zhu, Junjia; Creer, Michael H; Malysz, Jozef

    2015-02-11

    Measurement of daily proteinuria in patients with amyloidosis is recommended at the time of diagnosis for assessing renal involvement, and for monitoring disease activity. Renal involvement is usually defined by proteinuria >500 mg/day. We evaluated the accuracy of the random urine protein-to-creatinine ratio (Pr/Cr) in predicting 24 hour proteinuria in patient with amyloidosis. We compared results of random urine Pr/Cr ratio and concomitant 24-hour urine collections in 44 patients with amyloidosis. We found a strong correlation (Spearman's ρ=0.874) between the Pr/Cr ratio and the 24 hour urine protein excretion. For predicting renal involvement, the optimal cut-off point of the Pr/Cr ratio was 715 mg/g. The sensitivity and specificity for this point were 91.8% and 95.5%, respectively, and the area under the curve value was 97.4%. We conclude that the random urine Pr/Cr ratio could be useful in the screening of renal involvement in patients with amyloidosis. If validated in a prospective study, the random urine Pr/Cr ratio could replace the 24 hour urine collection for the assessment of daily proteinuria and presence of nephrotic syndrome in patients with amyloidosis.

  1. Estimation of daily proteinuria in patients with amyloidosis by using the protein-to-creatinine ratio in random urine sample

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giampaolo Talamo

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Measurement of daily proteinuria in patients with amyloidosis is recommended at the time of diagnosis for assessing renal involvement, and for monitoring disease activity. Renal involvement is usually defined by proteinuria >500 mg/day. We evaluated the accuracy of the random urine protein-to-creatinine ratio (Pr/Cr in predicting 24 hour proteinuria in patient with amyloidosis. We com- pared results of random urine Pr/Cr ratio and concomitant 24-hour urine collections in 44 patients with amyloidosis. We found a strong correlation (Spearman’s ρ=0.874 between the Pr/Cr ratio and the 24 hour urine protein excretion. For predicting renal involvement, the optimal cut-off point of the Pr/Cr ratio was 715 mg/g. The sensitivity and specificity for this point were 91.8% and 95.5%, respectively, and the area under the curve value was 97.4%. We conclude that the random urine Pr/Cr ratio could be useful in the screening of renal involvement in patients with amyloidosis. If validated in a prospective study, the random urine Pr/Cr ratio could replace the 24 hour urine collection for the assessment of daily proteinuria and presence of nephrotic syndrome in patients with amyloidosis.

  2. Estimates of leaf area index from spectral reflectance of wheat under different cultural practices and solar angle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asrar, G.; Kanemasu, E. T.; Yoshida, M.

    1985-01-01

    The influence of management practices and solar illumination angle on the leaf area index (LAI) was estimated from measurements of wheat canopy reflectance evaluated by two methods, a regression formula and an indirect technique. The date of planting and the time of irrigation in relation to the stage of plant growth were found to have significant effects on the development of leaves in spring wheat. A reduction in soil moisture adversely affected both the duration and magnitude of the maximum LAI for late planting dates. In general, water stress during vegetative stages resulted in a reduction in maximum LAI, while water stress during the reproductive period shortened the duration of green LAI in spring wheat. Canopy geometry and solar angle also affected the spectral properties of the canopies, and hence the estimated LAI. Increase in solar zenith angles resulted in a general increase in estimated LAI obtained from both methods.

  3. ESTIMATING THE DEEP SOLAR MERIDIONAL CIRCULATION USING MAGNETIC OBSERVATIONS AND A DYNAMO MODEL: A VARIATIONAL APPROACH

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hung, Ching Pui; Jouve, Laurène; Brun, Allan Sacha; Fournier, Alexandre; Talagrand, Olivier

    2015-01-01

    We show how magnetic observations of the Sun can be used in conjunction with an axisymmetric flux-transport solar dynamo model in order to estimate the large-scale meridional circulation throughout the convection zone. Our innovative approach rests on variational data assimilation, whereby the distance between predictions and observations (measured by an objective function) is iteratively minimized by means of an optimization algorithm seeking the meridional flow that best accounts for the data. The minimization is performed using a quasi-Newton technique, which requires knowledge of the sensitivity of the objective function to the meridional flow. That sensitivity is efficiently computed via the integration of the adjoint flux-transport dynamo model. Closed-loop (also known as twin) experiments using synthetic data demonstrate the validity and accuracy of this technique for a variety of meridional flow configurations, ranging from unicellular and equatorially symmetric to multicellular and equatorially asymmetric. In this well-controlled synthetic context, we perform a systematic study of the behavior of our variational approach under different observational configurations by varying their spatial density, temporal density, and noise level, as well as the width of the assimilation window. We find that the method is remarkably robust, leading in most cases to a recovery of the true meridional flow to within better than 1%. These encouraging results are a first step toward using this technique to (i) better constrain the physical processes occurring inside the Sun and (ii) better predict solar activity on decadal timescales

  4. ESTIMATING THE DEEP SOLAR MERIDIONAL CIRCULATION USING MAGNETIC OBSERVATIONS AND A DYNAMO MODEL: A VARIATIONAL APPROACH

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hung, Ching Pui; Jouve, Laurène; Brun, Allan Sacha [Laboratoire AIM Paris-Saclay, CEA/IRFU Université Paris-Diderot CNRS/INSU, F-91191 Gif-Sur-Yvette (France); Fournier, Alexandre [Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Université Paris Diderot UMR 7154 CNRS, F-75005 Paris (France); Talagrand, Olivier [Laboratoire de météorologie dynamique, UMR 8539, Ecole Normale Supérieure, Paris Cedex 05 (France)

    2015-12-01

    We show how magnetic observations of the Sun can be used in conjunction with an axisymmetric flux-transport solar dynamo model in order to estimate the large-scale meridional circulation throughout the convection zone. Our innovative approach rests on variational data assimilation, whereby the distance between predictions and observations (measured by an objective function) is iteratively minimized by means of an optimization algorithm seeking the meridional flow that best accounts for the data. The minimization is performed using a quasi-Newton technique, which requires knowledge of the sensitivity of the objective function to the meridional flow. That sensitivity is efficiently computed via the integration of the adjoint flux-transport dynamo model. Closed-loop (also known as twin) experiments using synthetic data demonstrate the validity and accuracy of this technique for a variety of meridional flow configurations, ranging from unicellular and equatorially symmetric to multicellular and equatorially asymmetric. In this well-controlled synthetic context, we perform a systematic study of the behavior of our variational approach under different observational configurations by varying their spatial density, temporal density, and noise level, as well as the width of the assimilation window. We find that the method is remarkably robust, leading in most cases to a recovery of the true meridional flow to within better than 1%. These encouraging results are a first step toward using this technique to (i) better constrain the physical processes occurring inside the Sun and (ii) better predict solar activity on decadal timescales.

  5. SPADER - Science Planning Analysis and Data Estimation Resource for the NASA Parker Solar Probe Mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodgers, D. J.; Fox, N. J.; Kusterer, M. B.; Turner, F. S.; Woleslagle, A. B.

    2017-12-01

    Scheduled to launch in July 2018, the Parker Solar Probe (PSP) will orbit the Sun for seven years, making a total of twenty-four extended encounters inside a solar radial distance of 0.25 AU. During most orbits, there are extended periods of time where PSP-Sun-Earth geometry dramatically reduces PSP-Earth communications via the Deep Space Network (DSN); there is the possibility that multiple orbits will have little to no high-rate downlink available. Science and housekeeping data taken during an encounter may reside on the spacecraft solid state recorder (SSR) for multiple orbits, potentially running the risk of overflowing the SSR in the absence of mitigation. The Science Planning Analysis and Data Estimation Resource (SPADER) has been developed to provide the science and operations teams the ability to plan operations accounting for multiple orbits in order to mitigate the effects caused by the lack of high-rate downlink. Capabilities and visualizations of SPADER are presented; further complications associated with file downlink priority and high-speed data transfers between instrument SSRs and the spacecraft SSR are discussed, as well as the long-term consequences of variations in DSN downlink parameters on the science data downlink.

  6. Size of the coming solar cycle 24 based on Ohl's Precursor Method, final estimate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. P. Kane

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available In Ohl's Precursor Method (Ohl, 1966, 1976, the geomagnetic activity during the declining phase of a sunspot cycle is shown to be well correlated with the size (maximum sunspot number Rz(max of the next cycle. For solar cycle 24, Kane (2007a used aa(min=15.5 (12-month running mean, which occurred during March–May of 2006 and made a preliminary estimate Rz(max=124±26 (12-month running mean. However, in the next few months, the aa index first increased and then decreased to a new low value of 14.8 in July 2007. With this new low value, the prediction was Rz(max=117±26 (12-month running mean. However, even this proved a false signal. Since then, the aa values have decreased considerably and the last 12-monthly value is 8.7, centered at May 2009. For solar cycle 24, using aa(min=8.7, the latest prediction is, Rz(max=58.0±25.0.

  7. Advantage of multiple spot urine collections for estimating daily sodium excretion: comparison with two 24-h urine collections as reference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uechi, Ken; Asakura, Keiko; Ri, Yui; Masayasu, Shizuko; Sasaki, Satoshi

    2016-02-01

    Several estimation methods for 24-h sodium excretion using spot urine sample have been reported, but accurate estimation at the individual level remains difficult. We aimed to clarify the most accurate method of estimating 24-h sodium excretion with different numbers of available spot urine samples. A total of 370 participants from throughout Japan collected multiple 24-h urine and spot urine samples independently. Participants were allocated randomly into a development and a validation dataset. Two estimation methods were established in the development dataset using the two 24-h sodium excretion samples as reference: the 'simple mean method' estimated by multiplying the sodium-creatinine ratio by predicted 24-h creatinine excretion, whereas the 'regression method' employed linear regression analysis. The accuracy of the two methods was examined by comparing the estimated means and concordance correlation coefficients (CCC) in the validation dataset. Mean sodium excretion by the simple mean method with three spot urine samples was closest to that by 24-h collection (difference: -1.62  mmol/day). CCC with the simple mean method increased with an increased number of spot urine samples at 0.20, 0.31, and 0.42 using one, two, and three samples, respectively. This method with three spot urine samples yielded higher CCC than the regression method (0.40). When only one spot urine sample was available for each study participant, CCC was higher with the regression method (0.36). The simple mean method with three spot urine samples yielded the most accurate estimates of sodium excretion. When only one spot urine sample was available, the regression method was preferable.

  8. DeepVel: Deep learning for the estimation of horizontal velocities at the solar surface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asensio Ramos, A.; Requerey, I. S.; Vitas, N.

    2017-07-01

    Many phenomena taking place in the solar photosphere are controlled by plasma motions. Although the line-of-sight component of the velocity can be estimated using the Doppler effect, we do not have direct spectroscopic access to the components that are perpendicular to the line of sight. These components are typically estimated using methods based on local correlation tracking. We have designed DeepVel, an end-to-end deep neural network that produces an estimation of the velocity at every single pixel, every time step, and at three different heights in the atmosphere from just two consecutive continuum images. We confront DeepVel with local correlation tracking, pointing out that they give very similar results in the time and spatially averaged cases. We use the network to study the evolution in height of the horizontal velocity field in fragmenting granules, supporting the buoyancy-braking mechanism for the formation of integranular lanes in these granules. We also show that DeepVel can capture very small vortices, so that we can potentially expand the scaling cascade of vortices to very small sizes and durations. The movie attached to Fig. 3 is available at http://www.aanda.org

  9. Generation of common coefficients to estimate global solar radiation over different locations of India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samanta, Suman; Patra, Pulak Kumar; Banerjee, Saon; Narsimhaiah, Lakshmi; Sarath Chandran, M. A.; Vijaya Kumar, P.; Bandyopadhyay, Sanjib

    2018-06-01

    In developing countries like India, global solar radiation (GSR) is measured at very few locations due to non-availability of radiation measuring instruments. To overcome the inadequacy of GSR measurements, scientists developed many empirical models to estimate location-wise GSR. In the present study, three simple forms of Angstrom equation [Angstrom-Prescott (A-P), Ogelman, and Bahel] were used to estimate GSR at six geographically and climatologically different locations across India with an objective to find out a set of common constants usable for whole country. Results showed that GSR values varied from 9.86 to 24.85 MJ m-2 day-1 for different stations. It was also observed that A-P model showed smaller errors than Ogelman and Bahel models. All the models well estimated GSR, as the 1:1 line between measured and estimated values showed Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) values ≥ 0.81 for all locations. Measured data of GSR pooled over six selected locations was analyzed to obtain a new set of constants for A-P equation which can be applicable throughout the country. The set of constants (a = 0.29 and b = 0.40) was named as "One India One Constant (OIOC)," and the model was named as "MOIOC." Furthermore, the developed constants are validated statistically for another six locations of India and produce close estimation. High R 2 values (≥ 76%) along with low mean bias error (MBE) ranging from - 0.64 to 0.05 MJ m-2 day-1 revealed that the new constants are able to predict GSR with lesser percentage of error.

  10. Solar thermal technology development: Estimated market size and energy cost savings. Volume 1: Executive summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gates, W. R.

    1983-02-01

    Estimated future energy cost savings associated with the development of cost-competitive solar thermal technologies (STT) are discussed. Analysis is restricted to STT in electric applications for 16 high-insolation/high-energy-price states. The fuel price scenarios and three 1990 STT system costs are considered, reflecting uncertainty over future fuel prices and STT cost projections. STT R&D is found to be unacceptably risky for private industry in the absence of federal support. Energy cost savings were projected to range from $0 to $10 billion (1990 values in 1981 dollars), dependng on the system cost and fuel price scenario. Normal R&D investment risks are accentuated because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel can artificially manipulate oil prices and undercut growth of alternative energy sources. Federal participation in STT R&D to help capture the potential benefits of developing cost-competitive STT was found to be in the national interest.

  11. Solar thermal technology development: Estimated market size and energy cost savings. Volume 1: Executive summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gates, W. R.

    1983-01-01

    Estimated future energy cost savings associated with the development of cost-competitive solar thermal technologies (STT) are discussed. Analysis is restricted to STT in electric applications for 16 high-insolation/high-energy-price states. The fuel price scenarios and three 1990 STT system costs are considered, reflecting uncertainty over future fuel prices and STT cost projections. STT R&D is found to be unacceptably risky for private industry in the absence of federal support. Energy cost savings were projected to range from $0 to $10 billion (1990 values in 1981 dollars), dependng on the system cost and fuel price scenario. Normal R&D investment risks are accentuated because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel can artificially manipulate oil prices and undercut growth of alternative energy sources. Federal participation in STT R&D to help capture the potential benefits of developing cost-competitive STT was found to be in the national interest.

  12. Estimativa da radiação solar global a partir dos dados de insolação, para Santa Maria - RS Estimation of global radiation from insolation data for Santa Maria, RS, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Galileo Adeli Buriol

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Foram determinados os coeficientes a e b da equação de Angströn-Prescott para a estimativa da radiação solar global para Santa Maria, RS. Utilizaram-se os dados diários da intensidade de fluxo de radiação solar global e de insolação (brilho solar registrados na Estação Meteorológica pertencente ao 8° Distrito de Meteorologia, localizada no Campus da Universidade Federal de Santa Maria - UFSM, período 2002-2008. Os dados foram copiados no banco de dados do 8° Distrito de Meteorologia - 8° DISME, em Porto Alegre, e calculados os valores diários de radiação solar global no topo da atmosfera e de insolação máxima possível, considerando a latitude local. Com esses dados, foram determinadas as equações mensais e estacionais de regressão para a estimativa da radiação solar global em função da insolação. Constatou-se que existe alta correlação entre os dados de radiação solar global com aqueles de insolação, sendo, assim, possível estimar a radiação solar global em função da insolação.Coefficients a and b of the Angströn - Prescott equation to estimate global solar radiation for Santa Maria, RS were determined. Daily data of global solar radiation and sunshine, were obtained from the Meteorological Station which belongs to the 8th District of Meteorology, located on the campus of the Federal University of Santa Maria - UFSM, period from 2002 to 2008. The mentioned data were copied from the database of the 8th District of Meteorology - 8th DISME in Porto Alegre. Top of atmosphere radiation and possible maximum sunshine were calculated considering local latitude. With such elements, monthly regression equations were determined for the estimation of solar radiation as a function of insolation. We found a high correlation between insolation and global solar radiation and it's possible to estimate the solar radiation depending on the measured insolation.

  13. Rationale and design of the worldwide prospective multicenter registry on radiation dose estimates of cardiac CT angiography in daily practice in 2017 (PROTECTION VI)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stocker, Thomas J; Deseive, Simon; Chen, Marcus

    2018-01-01

    -randomized and randomized studies have been performed to reduce the associated radiation exposure. Currently, it is unclear if the advances in technology and knowledge about radiation reduction translated into reduced levels of cardiac CTA radiation dose in daily clinical practice as well as a wide utilization of dose......-saving strategies. METHODS: The PROTECTION VI study is a multicenter, prospective, worldwide registry designed to evaluate radiation dose exposure, utilization of dose-saving strategies and diagnostic image quality during cardiac CTA in current daily practice. Assessment of image quality will be addressed...... median radiation dose levels, image quality, frequency of use and efficacy of algorithms for dose reduction, and patient and study-related predictors associated with radiation dose. CONCLUSIONS: The PROTECTION VI study is designed to provide a reliable estimate of current radiation dose for cardiac CTA...

  14. A devil in the detail: parameter cross-talk from the solar cycle and estimation of solar p-mode frequencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaplin, W. J.; Jiménez-Reyes, S. J.; Eff-Darwich, A.; Elsworth, Y.; New, R.

    2008-04-01

    Frequencies, powers and damping rates of the solar p modes are all observed to vary over the 11-yr solar activity cycle. Here, we show that simultaneous variations in these parameters give rise to a subtle cross-talk effect, which we call the `devil in the detail', that biases p-mode frequencies estimated from analysis of long power frequency spectra. We also show that the resonant peaks observed in the power frequency spectra show small distortions due to the effect. Most of our paper is devoted to a study of the effect for Sun-as-a-star observations of the low-l p modes. We show that for these data the significance of the effect is marginal. We also touch briefly on the likely l dependence of the effect, and discuss the implications of these results for solar structure inversions.

  15. Predictive model accuracy in estimating last Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) intake from plasma and whole blood cannabinoid concentrations in chronic, daily cannabis smokers administered subchronic oral THC.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karschner, Erin L; Schwope, David M; Schwilke, Eugene W; Goodwin, Robert S; Kelly, Deanna L; Gorelick, David A; Huestis, Marilyn A

    2012-10-01

    Determining time since last cannabis/Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) exposure is important in clinical, workplace, and forensic settings. Mathematical models calculating time of last exposure from whole blood concentrations typically employ a theoretical 0.5 whole blood-to-plasma (WB/P) ratio. No studies previously evaluated predictive models utilizing empirically-derived WB/P ratios, or whole blood cannabinoid pharmacokinetics after subchronic THC dosing. Ten male chronic, daily cannabis smokers received escalating around-the-clock oral THC (40-120 mg daily) for 8 days. Cannabinoids were quantified in whole blood and plasma by two-dimensional gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. Maximum whole blood THC occurred 3.0 h after the first oral THC dose and 103.5h (4.3 days) during multiple THC dosing. Median WB/P ratios were THC 0.63 (n=196), 11-hydroxy-THC 0.60 (n=189), and 11-nor-9-carboxy-THC (THCCOOH) 0.55 (n=200). Predictive models utilizing these WB/P ratios accurately estimated last cannabis exposure in 96% and 100% of specimens collected within 1-5h after a single oral THC dose and throughout multiple dosing, respectively. Models were only 60% and 12.5% accurate 12.5 and 22.5h after the last THC dose, respectively. Predictive models estimating time since last cannabis intake from whole blood and plasma cannabinoid concentrations were inaccurate during abstinence, but highly accurate during active THC dosing. THC redistribution from large cannabinoid body stores and high circulating THCCOOH concentrations create different pharmacokinetic profiles than those in less than daily cannabis smokers that were used to derive the models. Thus, the models do not accurately predict time of last THC intake in individuals consuming THC daily. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

  16. An estimation of US horse-owner/caregiver willingness-to-pay for daily use and infectious upper respiratory disease treatment options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kibler, M L; Pendell, D L; Costanigro, M; Traub-Dargatz, J

    2018-07-01

    Equine injury and disease cause two types of costs for those financially responsible for treating and caring for the infected horse(s); direct costs of treating the horse and indirect cost of lost use of the horse for a period of time to the user of the horse (daily horse use). Indirect costs are more difficult to estimate but pose significant financial implications for equine-owners/caregivers. Additionally, there exists a gap in existing research regarding the valuation of infectious treatment options in horses. To estimate the value a US horse-owner/caregiver places on daily horse use and describe respondents' willingness-to-pay for various attributes of equine treatment options. Online questionnaire survey. An online questionnaire was provided to equine-owners and caretakers, and owner demographic, horse care and horse use information from respondents were requested. Additionally, respondents were presented with hypothetical disease treatment options with the following attributes: daily dosage, number of days of rest required, route of administration and out-of-pocket cost to the owner/caretaker through a choice experiment. Data were analysed using a rank-ordered logit analysis and willingness-to-pay estimates for daily use and treatment options were calculated. Results suggest that the average horse-owner with an uninsured and insured horse is willing to pay $12.07 (95% confidence interval: -$15.01, -$9.69) and $17.95 (95% confidence interval: -$25.30, -$11.20) per day to reduce lost use days required (due to need for rest) respectively. Respondents showed preferences for oral administration over treatments requiring i.m. injections. As this study employed an online survey it was subjected to self-selection bias and a sample size calculation was not performed. Veterinarians and pharmaceutical companies may use these results when promoting various treatment options to horse-owners/caregivers and in product development. Additionally, promotion efforts may be

  17. INTERGRATION OF LiDAR DATA WITH AERIAL IMAGERY FOR ESTIMATING ROOFTOP SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC POTENTIALS IN CITY OF CAPE TOWN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. K. Adeleke

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Apart from the drive to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by carbon-intensive economies like South Africa, the recent spate of electricity load shedding across most part of the country, including Cape Town has left electricity consumers scampering for alternatives, so as to rely less on the national grid. Solar energy, which is adequately available in most part of Africa and regarded as a clean and renewable source of energy, makes it possible to generate electricity by using photovoltaics technology. However, before time and financial resources are invested into rooftop solar photovoltaic systems in urban areas, it is important to evaluate the potential of the building rooftop, intended to be used in harvesting the solar energy. This paper presents methodologies making use of LiDAR data and other ancillary data, such as high-resolution aerial imagery, to automatically extract building rooftops in City of Cape Town and evaluate their potentials for solar photovoltaics systems. Two main processes were involved: (1 automatic extraction of building roofs using the integration of LiDAR data and aerial imagery in order to derive its’ outline and areal coverage; and (2 estimating the global solar radiation incidence on each roof surface using an elevation model derived from the LiDAR data, in order to evaluate its solar photovoltaic potential. This resulted in a geodatabase, which can be queried to retrieve salient information about the viability of a particular building roof for solar photovoltaic installation.

  18. An Estimate of Solar Wind Velocity Profiles in a Coronal Hole and a Coronal Streamer Area (6-40 R(radius symbol)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patzold, M.; Tsurutani, B. T.; Bird, M. K.

    1995-01-01

    Total electron content data obtained from the Ulysses Solar Corona Experiment (SCE) in 1991 were used to select two data sets, one associated with a coronal hole and the other with coronal streamer crossings. (This is largely equatorial data shortly after solar maximum.) The solar wind velocity profile is estimated for these areas.

  19. LARGE-SCALE MAGNETIC HELICITY FLUXES ESTIMATED FROM MDI MAGNETIC SYNOPTIC CHARTS OVER THE SOLAR CYCLE 23

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang Shangbin; Zhang Hongqi

    2012-01-01

    To investigate the characteristics of large-scale and long-term evolution of magnetic helicity with solar cycles, we use the method of Local Correlation Tracking to estimate the magnetic helicity evolution over solar cycle 23 from 1996 to 2009 using 795 MDI magnetic synoptic charts. The main results are as follows: the hemispheric helicity rule still holds in general, i.e., the large-scale negative (positive) magnetic helicity dominates the northern (southern) hemisphere. However, the large-scale magnetic helicity fluxes show the same sign in both hemispheres around 2001 and 2005. The global, large-scale magnetic helicity flux over the solar disk changes from a negative value at the beginning of solar cycle 23 to a positive value at the end of the cycle, while the net accumulated magnetic helicity is negative in the period between 1996 and 2009.

  20. LARGE-SCALE MAGNETIC HELICITY FLUXES ESTIMATED FROM MDI MAGNETIC SYNOPTIC CHARTS OVER THE SOLAR CYCLE 23

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang Shangbin; Zhang Hongqi, E-mail: yangshb@nao.cas.cn [Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100012 Beijing (China)

    2012-10-10

    To investigate the characteristics of large-scale and long-term evolution of magnetic helicity with solar cycles, we use the method of Local Correlation Tracking to estimate the magnetic helicity evolution over solar cycle 23 from 1996 to 2009 using 795 MDI magnetic synoptic charts. The main results are as follows: the hemispheric helicity rule still holds in general, i.e., the large-scale negative (positive) magnetic helicity dominates the northern (southern) hemisphere. However, the large-scale magnetic helicity fluxes show the same sign in both hemispheres around 2001 and 2005. The global, large-scale magnetic helicity flux over the solar disk changes from a negative value at the beginning of solar cycle 23 to a positive value at the end of the cycle, while the net accumulated magnetic helicity is negative in the period between 1996 and 2009.

  1. Wavelength-dependent ability of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence to estimate GPP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, L.

    2017-12-01

    Recent studies have demonstrated that solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) can offer a new way for directly estimating the terrestrial gross primary production (GPP). In this paper, the wavelength-dependent ability of SIF to estimate GPP was investigated using both simulations by SCOPE model (Soil Canopy Observation, Photochemistry and Energy fluxes) and observations at the canopy level. Firstly, the response of the remotely sensed SIF at the canopy level to the absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (APAR ) was investigated. Both the simulations and observations confirm a linear relationship between canopy SIF and APAR, while it is species-specific and affected by biochemical components and canopy structure. The ratio of SIF to APAR varies greatly for different vegetation types, which is significant larger for canopy with horizontal structure than it with vertical structure. At red band, the ratio also decreases noticeable when chlorophyll content increases. Then, the performance of SIF to estimate GPP was investigated using diurnal observations of winter wheat at different grow stages. The results showed that the diurnal GPP could be robustly estimated from the SIF spectra for winter wheat at each growth stage, while the correlation weakened greatly at red band if all the observations made at different growth stages or all simulations with different LAI values were pooled together - a situation which did not occur at the far-red band. Finally, the SIF-based GPP models derived from the 2016 observations on winter wheat were well validated using the dataset from 2015, which give better performance for SIF at far-red band than that at red band. Therefore, it is very important to correct for reabsorption and scattering of the SIF radiative transfer from the photosystem to the canopy level before the remotely sensed SIF is linked to the GPP, especially at red band.

  2. A machine learning approach to estimation of downward solar radiation from satellite-derived data products: An application over a semi-arid ecosystem in the U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Qingtao; Flores, Alejandro; Glenn, Nancy F; Walters, Reggie; Han, Bangshuai

    2017-01-01

    Shortwave solar radiation is an important component of the surface energy balance and provides the principal source of energy for terrestrial ecosystems. This paper presents a machine learning approach in the form of a random forest (RF) model for estimating daily downward solar radiation flux at the land surface over complex terrain using MODIS (MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) remote sensing data. The model-building technique makes use of a unique network of 16 solar flux measurements in the semi-arid Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed and Critical Zone Observatory, in southwest Idaho, USA. Based on a composite RF model built on daily observations from all 16 sites in the watershed, the model simulation of downward solar radiation matches well with the observation data (r2 = 0.96). To evaluate model performance, RF models were built from 12 of 16 sites selected at random and validated against the observations at the remaining four sites. Overall root mean square errors (RMSE), bias, and mean absolute error (MAE) are small (range: 37.17 W/m2-81.27 W/m2, -48.31 W/m2-15.67 W/m2, and 26.56 W/m2-63.77 W/m2, respectively). When extrapolated to the entire watershed, spatiotemporal patterns of solar flux are largely consistent with expected trends in this watershed. We also explored significant predictors of downward solar flux in order to reveal important properties and processes controlling downward solar radiation. Based on the composite RF model built on all 16 sites, the three most important predictors to estimate downward solar radiation include the black sky albedo (BSA) near infrared band (0.858 μm), BSA visible band (0.3-0.7 μm), and clear day coverage. This study has important implications for improving the ability to derive downward solar radiation through a fusion of multiple remote sensing datasets and can potentially capture spatiotemporally varying trends in solar radiation that is useful for land surface hydrologic and terrestrial

  3. Estimation of daily PM10 concentrations in Italy (2006-2012) using finely resolved satellite data, land use variables and meteorology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stafoggia, Massimo; Schwartz, Joel; Badaloni, Chiara; Bellander, Tom; Alessandrini, Ester; Cattani, Giorgio; De' Donato, Francesca; Gaeta, Alessandra; Leone, Gianluca; Lyapustin, Alexei; Sorek-Hamer, Meytar; de Hoogh, Kees; Di, Qian; Forastiere, Francesco; Kloog, Itai

    2017-02-01

    Health effects of air pollution, especially particulate matter (PM), have been widely investigated. However, most of the studies rely on few monitors located in urban areas for short-term assessments, or land use/dispersion modelling for long-term evaluations, again mostly in cities. Recently, the availability of finely resolved satellite data provides an opportunity to estimate daily concentrations of air pollutants over wide spatio-temporal domains. Italy lacks a robust and validated high resolution spatio-temporally resolved model of particulate matter. The complex topography and the air mixture from both natural and anthropogenic sources are great challenges difficult to be addressed. We combined finely resolved data on Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) from the Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm, ground-level PM 10 measurements, land-use variables and meteorological parameters into a four-stage mixed model framework to derive estimates of daily PM 10 concentrations at 1-km2 grid over Italy, for the years 2006-2012. We checked performance of our models by applying 10-fold cross-validation (CV) for each year. Our models displayed good fitting, with mean CV-R2=0.65 and little bias (average slope of predicted VS observed PM 10 =0.99). Out-of-sample predictions were more accurate in Northern Italy (Po valley) and large conurbations (e.g. Rome), for background monitoring stations, and in the winter season. Resulting concentration maps showed highest average PM 10 levels in specific areas (Po river valley, main industrial and metropolitan areas) with decreasing trends over time. Our daily predictions of PM 10 concentrations across the whole Italy will allow, for the first time, estimation of long-term and short-term effects of air pollution nationwide, even in areas lacking monitoring data. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Estimation of daily reference evapotranspiration (ETo) using artificial intelligence methods: Offering a new approach for lagged ETo data-based modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehdizadeh, Saeid

    2018-04-01

    Evapotranspiration (ET) is considered as a key factor in hydrological and climatological studies, agricultural water management, irrigation scheduling, etc. It can be directly measured using lysimeters. Moreover, other methods such as empirical equations and artificial intelligence methods can be used to model ET. In the recent years, artificial intelligence methods have been widely utilized to estimate reference evapotranspiration (ETo). In the present study, local and external performances of multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) and gene expression programming (GEP) were assessed for estimating daily ETo. For this aim, daily weather data of six stations with different climates in Iran, namely Urmia and Tabriz (semi-arid), Isfahan and Shiraz (arid), Yazd and Zahedan (hyper-arid) were employed during 2000-2014. Two types of input patterns consisting of weather data-based and lagged ETo data-based scenarios were considered to develop the models. Four statistical indicators including root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), coefficient of determination (R2), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were used to check the accuracy of models. The local performance of models revealed that the MARS and GEP approaches have the capability to estimate daily ETo using the meteorological parameters and the lagged ETo data as inputs. Nevertheless, the MARS had the best performance in the weather data-based scenarios. On the other hand, considerable differences were not observed in the models' accuracy for the lagged ETo data-based scenarios. In the innovation of this study, novel hybrid models were proposed in the lagged ETo data-based scenarios through combination of MARS and GEP models with autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) time series model. It was concluded that the proposed novel models named MARS-ARCH and GEP-ARCH improved the performance of ETo modeling compared to the single MARS and GEP. In addition, the external

  5. The estimation of daily intake and organ content of Cs, I, Sr, Th and U in Indian population: Application to the study of their biokinetics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dang, H.S.; Jaiswal, D.D.; Pullat, V.R.; Parameswaran, M.; Krishnamony, S.

    1998-01-01

    The analytical methods involving both instrumental and radiochemical neutron activation techniques (INAA and RNAA) are being standardised for the determination of the elements Cs, I, Sr, Th and U in various kinds of biological samples. The sampling method proposed to be adopted for the estimation of the daily dietary intake, of the above elements is described. Also reported in this paper are the preliminary results on the concentrations of these elements in the food ingredients which form important components of the diet of Indian population. (author)

  6. A rapid method of estimating the solar irradiance spectra with potential lighting applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gao, Y.; Dong, J.; Isabella, O.; Zeman, M.; Zhang, G

    2016-01-01

    Diverse solar irradiance spectra can be observed under different conditions of time, date, location, weather, etc. Since the solar irradiance spectrum is required by certain scientific and engineering applications, obtaining accurate spectral data is essential. Measurements by spectrophotometers are

  7. Estimating the Global Agricultural Impact of Solar Radiation Management using Volcanic Eruptions as Natural Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Proctor, J.; Hsiang, S. M.; Burney, J. A.; Burke, M.; Schlenker, W.

    2017-12-01

    Solar radiation management (SRM) is increasingly considered an option for managing global temperatures, yet the economic impacts of ameliorating climatic changes by scattering sunlight back to space remain largely unknown. Though SRM may increase crop yields by reducing heat stress, its impacts from concomitant changes in available sunlight have never been empirically estimated. Here we use the volcanic eruptions that inspired modern SRM proposals as natural experiments to provide the first estimates of how the stratospheric sulfate aerosols (SS) created by the eruptions of El Chichon and Pinatubo altered the quantity and quality of global sunlight, how those changes in sunlight impacted global crop yields, and the total effect that SS may have on yields in an SRM scenario when the climatic and sunlight effects are jointly considered. We find that the sunlight-mediated impact of SS on yields is negative for both C4 (maize) and C3 (soy, rice, wheat) crops. Applying our yield model to a geoengineering scenario using SS-based SRM from 2050-2069, we find that SRM damages due to scattering sunlight are roughly equal in magnitude to SRM benefits from cooling. This suggests that SRM - if deployed using SS similar to those emitted by the volcanic eruptions it seeks to mimic - would attenuate little of the damages from climate change to global agriculture on net. Our approach could be extended to study SRM impacts on other global systems, such as human health or ecosystem function.

  8. Magnetic Helicity Estimations in Models and Observations of the Solar Magnetic Field. III. Twist Number Method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guo, Y. [School of Astronomy and Space Science and Key Laboratory of Modern Astronomy and Astrophysics in Ministry of Education, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023 (China); Pariat, E.; Moraitis, K. [LESIA, Observatoire de Paris, PSL Research University, CNRS, Sorbonne Université, UPMC Univ. Paris 06, Univ. Paris Diderot, Sorbonne Paris Cité, F-92190 Meudon (France); Valori, G. [University College London, Mullard Space Science Laboratory, Holmbury St. Mary, Dorking, Surrey, RH5 6NT (United Kingdom); Anfinogentov, S. [Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics SB RAS 664033, Irkutsk, P.O. box 291, Lermontov Street, 126a (Russian Federation); Chen, F. [Max-Plank-Institut für Sonnensystemforschung, D-37077 Göttingen (Germany); Georgoulis, M. K. [Research Center for Astronomy and Applied Mathematics of the Academy of Athens, 4 Soranou Efesiou Street, 11527 Athens (Greece); Liu, Y. [W. W. Hansen Experimental Physics Laboratory, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305 (United States); Thalmann, J. K. [Institute of Physics, Univeristy of Graz, Universitätsplatz 5/II, A-8010 Graz (Austria); Yang, S., E-mail: guoyang@nju.edu.cn [Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100012 (China)

    2017-05-01

    We study the writhe, twist, and magnetic helicity of different magnetic flux ropes, based on models of the solar coronal magnetic field structure. These include an analytical force-free Titov–Démoulin equilibrium solution, non-force-free magnetohydrodynamic simulations, and nonlinear force-free magnetic field models. The geometrical boundary of the magnetic flux rope is determined by the quasi-separatrix layer and the bottom surface, and the axis curve of the flux rope is determined by its overall orientation. The twist is computed by the Berger–Prior formula, which is suitable for arbitrary geometry and both force-free and non-force-free models. The magnetic helicity is estimated by the twist multiplied by the square of the axial magnetic flux. We compare the obtained values with those derived by a finite volume helicity estimation method. We find that the magnetic helicity obtained with the twist method agrees with the helicity carried by the purely current-carrying part of the field within uncertainties for most test cases. It is also found that the current-carrying part of the model field is relatively significant at the very location of the magnetic flux rope. This qualitatively explains the agreement between the magnetic helicity computed by the twist method and the helicity contributed purely by the current-carrying magnetic field.

  9. Estimating Water Footprints of Vegetable Crops: Influence of Growing Season, Solar Radiation Data and Functional Unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Betsie le Roux

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Water footprint (WF accounting as proposed by the Water Footprint Network (WFN can potentially provide important information for water resource management, especially in water scarce countries relying on irrigation to help meet their food requirements. However, calculating accurate WFs of short-season vegetable crops such as carrots, cabbage, beetroot, broccoli and lettuce presented some challenges. Planting dates and inter-annual weather conditions impact WF results. Joining weather datasets of just rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature with ones that include solar radiation and wind-speed affected crop model estimates and WF results. The functional unit selected can also have a major impact on results. For example, WFs according to the WFN approach do not account for crop residues used for other purposes, like composting and animal feed. Using yields in dry matter rather than fresh mass also impacts WF metrics, making comparisons difficult. To overcome this, using the nutritional value of crops as a functional unit can connect water use more directly to potential benefits derived from different crops and allow more straightforward comparisons. Grey WFs based on nitrogen only disregards water pollution caused by phosphates, pesticides and salinization. Poor understanding of the fate of nitrogen complicates estimation of nitrogen loads into the aquifer.

  10. Solar Radiation Pressure Estimation and Analysis of a GEO Class of High Area-to-Mass Ratio Debris Objects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelecy, Tom; Payne, Tim; Thurston, Robin; Stansbery, Gene

    2007-01-01

    A population of deep space objects is thought to be high area-to-mass ratio (AMR) debris having origins from sources in the geosynchronous orbit (GEO) belt. The typical AMR values have been observed to range anywhere from 1's to 10's of m(sup 2)/kg, and hence, higher than average solar radiation pressure effects result in long-term migration of eccentricity (0.1-0.6) and inclination over time. However, the nature of the debris orientation-dependent dynamics also results time-varying solar radiation forces about the average which complicate the short-term orbit determination processing. The orbit determination results are presented for several of these debris objects, and highlight their unique and varied dynamic attributes. Estimation or the solar pressure dynamics over time scales suitable for resolving the shorter term dynamics improves the orbit estimation, and hence, the orbit predictions needed to conduct follow-up observations.

  11. Daily estimates of the migrating tide and zonal mean temperature in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere derived from SABER data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortland, David A.

    2017-04-01

    Satellites provide a global view of the structure in the fields that they measure. In the mesosphere and lower thermosphere, the dominant features in these fields at low zonal wave number are contained in the zonal mean, quasi-stationary planetary waves, and tide components. Due to the nature of the satellite sampling pattern, stationary, diurnal, and semidiurnal components are aliased and spectral methods are typically unable to separate the aliased waves over short time periods. This paper presents a data processing scheme that is able to recover the daily structure of these waves and the zonal mean state. The method is validated by using simulated data constructed from a mechanistic model, and then applied to Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) temperature measurements. The migrating diurnal tide extracted from SABER temperatures for 2009 has a seasonal variability with peak amplitude (20 K at 95 km) in February and March and minimum amplitude (less than 5 K at 95 km) in early June and early December. Higher frequency variability includes a change in vertical structure and amplitude during the major stratospheric warming in January. The migrating semidiurnal tide extracted from SABER has variability on a monthly time scale during January through March, minimum amplitude in April, and largest steady amplitudes from May through September. Modeling experiments were performed that show that much of the variability on seasonal time scales in the migrating tides is due to changes in the mean flow structure and the superposition of the tidal responses to water vapor heating in the troposphere and ozone heating in the stratosphere and lower mesosphere.

  12. Vertical profiles of aerosol optical properties and the solar heating rate estimated by combining sky radiometer and lidar measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kudo, Rei; Nishizawa, Tomoaki; Aoyagi, Toshinori

    2016-07-01

    The SKYLIDAR algorithm was developed to estimate vertical profiles of aerosol optical properties from sky radiometer (SKYNET) and lidar (AD-Net) measurements. The solar heating rate was also estimated from the SKYLIDAR retrievals. The algorithm consists of two retrieval steps: (1) columnar properties are retrieved from the sky radiometer measurements and the vertically mean depolarization ratio obtained from the lidar measurements and (2) vertical profiles are retrieved from the lidar measurements and the results of the first step. The derived parameters are the vertical profiles of the size distribution, refractive index (real and imaginary parts), extinction coefficient, single-scattering albedo, and asymmetry factor. Sensitivity tests were conducted by applying the SKYLIDAR algorithm to the simulated sky radiometer and lidar data for vertical profiles of three different aerosols, continental average, transported dust, and pollution aerosols. The vertical profiles of the size distribution, extinction coefficient, and asymmetry factor were well estimated in all cases. The vertical profiles of the refractive index and single-scattering albedo of transported dust, but not those of transported pollution aerosol, were well estimated. To demonstrate the performance and validity of the SKYLIDAR algorithm, we applied the SKYLIDAR algorithm to the actual measurements at Tsukuba, Japan. The detailed vertical structures of the aerosol optical properties and solar heating rate of transported dust and smoke were investigated. Examination of the relationship between the solar heating rate and the aerosol optical properties showed that the vertical profile of the asymmetry factor played an important role in creating vertical variation in the solar heating rate. We then compared the columnar optical properties retrieved with the SKYLIDAR algorithm to those produced with the more established scheme SKYRAD.PACK, and the surface solar irradiance calculated from the SKYLIDAR

  13. An improved Ångström-type model for estimating solar radiation over the Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sunshine- and temperature-based empirical models are widely used for solar radiation estimation over the world, but the coefficients of the models are mostly site-dependent. The coefficients are expected to vary more under complex terrain conditions than under flat terrains. To test this hypothesis,...

  14. Numerical model for the thermal yield estimation of unglazed photovoltaic-thermal collectors using indoor solar simulator testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Katiyar, M.; van Balkom, M.W.; Rindt, C.C.M.; de Keizer, C.; Zondag, H.A.

    2017-01-01

    It is a common practice to test solar thermal and photovoltaic-thermal (PVT) collectors outdoors. This requires testing over several weeks to account for different weather conditions encountered throughout the year, which is costly and time consuming. The outcome of these tests is an estimation of

  15. Statistical comparison of models for estimating the monthly average daily diffuse radiation at a subtropical African site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bashahu, M.

    2003-01-01

    Nine correlations have been developed in this paper to estimate the monthly average diffuse radiation for Dakar, Senegal. A 16-year period data on the global (H) and diffuse (H d ) radiation, together with data on the bright sunshine hours (N), the fraction of the sky's (Ne/8), the water vapour pressure in the air (e) and the ambient temperature (T) have been used for that purpose. A model inter-comparison based on the MBE, RMSE and t statistical tests has shown that estimates in any of the obtained correlations are not significantly different from their measured counterparts, thus all the nine models are recommended for the aforesaid location. Three of them should be particularly selected for their simplicity, universal applicability and high accuracy. Those are simple linear correlations between K d and N/N d , Ne/8 or K t . Even presenting adequate performance, the remaining correlations are either simple but less accurate, or multiple or nonlinear regressions needing one or two input variables. (author)

  16. Statistical comparison of models for estimating the monthly average daily diffuse radiation at a subtropical African site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bashahu, M. [University of Burundi, Bujumbura (Burundi). Institute of Applied Pedagogy, Department of Physics and Technology

    2003-07-01

    Nine correlations have been developed in this paper to estimate the monthly average diffuse radiation for Dakar, Senegal. A 16-year period data on the global (H) and diffuse (H{sub d}) radiation, together with data on the bright sunshine hours (N), the fraction of the sky's (Ne/8), the water vapour pressure in the air (e) and the ambient temperature (T) have been used for that purpose. A model inter-comparison based on the MBE, RMSE and t statistical tests has shown that estimates in any of the obtained correlations are not significantly different from their measured counterparts, thus all the nine models are recommended for the aforesaid location. Three of them should be particularly selected for their simplicity, universal applicability and high accuracy. Those are simple linear correlations between K{sub d} and N/N{sub d}, Ne/8 or K{sub t}. Even presenting adequate performance, the remaining correlations are either simple but less accurate, or multiple or nonlinear regressions needing one or two input variables. (author)

  17. Estimate of thermal fatigue lifetime for the INCONEL 625lCF plate while exposed to concentrated solar radiation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rojas-Morín, A.

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available A system for testing the thermal cycling of materials and components has been developed and installed at the DISTAL-I parabolic dish facility located at the Plataforma Solar de Almería (PSA in Spain. This system allows us to perform abrupt heating/cooling tests by exposing central solar receiver materials to concentrated solar radiation. These tests are performed to simulate both the normal and critical operational conditions of the central solar receiver. The thermal fatigue life for the INCONEL 625LCF® plate when subjected to concentrated solar radiation has been estimated with this system. We have also developed a numerical model that evaluates the thermal behavior of the plate material; additionally, the model yields the tensile-compressive stresses on the plate, which allow the estimation of the Stress-Life (S-N fatigue curves. These curves show that the lifetime of the plate is within the High Cycle Fatigue (HCF region at the operational temperatures of both 650 °C and 900 °C.

    En el concentrador solar de disco parabólico DISTAL-I, situado en la Plataforma Solar de Almería (PSA, en España, se ha instalado un sistema para pruebas de ciclado térmico de materiales. Este sistema permite realizar pruebas abruptas de calentamiento y enfriamiento, en materiales para receptores solares de torre central, al exponerlos a radiación solar concentrada. Estas pruebas se realizan para simular las condiciones de operación de un receptor solar, las condiciones críticas y las condiciones normales. Con este sistema se ha estimado el tiempo de vida bajo fatiga térmica, en una placa de INCONEL 626LCF®, cuando es sometida a radiación solar concentrada. Asimismo, hemos desarrollado un modelo numérico que evalúa el desarrollo térmico en el material de la placa: adicionalmente, el modelo obtiene los esfuerzos de tensión-compresión en la placa, los cuales permiten la estimaciónde las curvas de fatiga vidaesfuerzo (S-N. Estas curvas

  18. Source term boundary adaptive estimation in a first-order 1D hyperbolic PDE: Application to a one loop solar collector through

    KAUST Repository

    Mechhoud, Sarra

    2016-08-04

    In this paper, boundary adaptive estimation of solar radiation in a solar collector plant is investigated. The solar collector is described by a 1D first-order hyperbolic partial differential equation where the solar radiation models the source term and only boundary measurements are available. Using boundary injection, the estimator is developed in the Lyapunov approach and consists of a combination of a state observer and a parameter adaptation law which guarantee the asymptotic convergence of the state and parameter estimation errors. Simulation results are provided to illustrate the performance of the proposed identifier.

  19. Estimating total solar radiation in different climatological of region in Iran using cloud factor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jafarpour, Kh.; Karshenas, M.

    2002-01-01

    Iran is among the countries located on the belt pertaining to lands with a high rate of solar insolation. Statistics shows that, for instance, the solar energy which hi ted the Iranian contention al land just in the year of 1990, was more than 1600 times that of the energy exported by Iran in the same year. This high rate of solar insolation, on the one hand and the limitation of fossil-fuel reservoirs (specially, utilizing energy from such sources is polluting the environment) on the other hand, show that harnessing the solar energy is not anymore a choice of decision but rather on obligation. To fulfill this obligation one needs solar insolation data to be able to design and evaluate solar energy utilizing systems and other uses under different climatological conditions of Iran. As a first step, this article provides total solar radiation data for various cities in Iran under different climatological conditions using cloud factor as a parameter

  20. Estimation of missing values in solar radiation data using piecewise interpolation methods: Case study at Penang city

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zainudin, Mohd Lutfi; Saaban, Azizan; Bakar, Mohd Nazari Abu

    2015-01-01

    The solar radiation values have been composed by automatic weather station using the device that namely pyranometer. The device is functions to records all the radiation values that have been dispersed, and these data are very useful for it experimental works and solar device’s development. In addition, for modeling and designing on solar radiation system application is needed for complete data observation. Unfortunately, lack for obtained the complete solar radiation data frequently occur due to several technical problems, which mainly contributed by monitoring device. Into encountering this matter, estimation missing values in an effort to substitute absent values with imputed data. This paper aimed to evaluate several piecewise interpolation techniques likes linear, splines, cubic, and nearest neighbor into dealing missing values in hourly solar radiation data. Then, proposed an extendable work into investigating the potential used of cubic Bezier technique and cubic Said-ball method as estimator tools. As result, methods for cubic Bezier and Said-ball perform the best compare to another piecewise imputation technique

  1. Estimation of missing values in solar radiation data using piecewise interpolation methods: Case study at Penang city

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zainudin, Mohd Lutfi; Saaban, Azizan; Bakar, Mohd Nazari Abu

    2015-12-01

    The solar radiation values have been composed by automatic weather station using the device that namely pyranometer. The device is functions to records all the radiation values that have been dispersed, and these data are very useful for it experimental works and solar device's development. In addition, for modeling and designing on solar radiation system application is needed for complete data observation. Unfortunately, lack for obtained the complete solar radiation data frequently occur due to several technical problems, which mainly contributed by monitoring device. Into encountering this matter, estimation missing values in an effort to substitute absent values with imputed data. This paper aimed to evaluate several piecewise interpolation techniques likes linear, splines, cubic, and nearest neighbor into dealing missing values in hourly solar radiation data. Then, proposed an extendable work into investigating the potential used of cubic Bezier technique and cubic Said-ball method as estimator tools. As result, methods for cubic Bezier and Said-ball perform the best compare to another piecewise imputation technique.

  2. Estimation of missing values in solar radiation data using piecewise interpolation methods: Case study at Penang city

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zainudin, Mohd Lutfi, E-mail: mdlutfi07@gmail.com [School of Quantitative Sciences, UUMCAS, Universiti Utara Malaysia, 06010 Sintok, Kedah (Malaysia); Institut Matematik Kejuruteraan (IMK), Universiti Malaysia Perlis, 02600 Arau, Perlis (Malaysia); Saaban, Azizan, E-mail: azizan.s@uum.edu.my [School of Quantitative Sciences, UUMCAS, Universiti Utara Malaysia, 06010 Sintok, Kedah (Malaysia); Bakar, Mohd Nazari Abu, E-mail: mohdnazari@perlis.uitm.edu.my [Faculty of Applied Science, Universiti Teknologi Mara, 02600 Arau, Perlis (Malaysia)

    2015-12-11

    The solar radiation values have been composed by automatic weather station using the device that namely pyranometer. The device is functions to records all the radiation values that have been dispersed, and these data are very useful for it experimental works and solar device’s development. In addition, for modeling and designing on solar radiation system application is needed for complete data observation. Unfortunately, lack for obtained the complete solar radiation data frequently occur due to several technical problems, which mainly contributed by monitoring device. Into encountering this matter, estimation missing values in an effort to substitute absent values with imputed data. This paper aimed to evaluate several piecewise interpolation techniques likes linear, splines, cubic, and nearest neighbor into dealing missing values in hourly solar radiation data. Then, proposed an extendable work into investigating the potential used of cubic Bezier technique and cubic Said-ball method as estimator tools. As result, methods for cubic Bezier and Said-ball perform the best compare to another piecewise imputation technique.

  3. Adjusted NIEL calculations for estimating proton-induced degradation of GaInP/GaAs/Ge space solar cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu Ming; Wang Rong; Liu Yunhong; Hu Wentao; Feng Zhao; Han Zhaolei

    2011-01-01

    The non-ionizing energy loss (NIEL) values for protons in solar cells should be modified by taking into account the distribution of the Bragg damage peak in the active region to calculate the corresponding displacement damage dose. In this paper, based upon a thin target approximation, a new approach is presented to modify NIEL values for protons on a GaAs sub-cell. Adjusted NIEL values can be used to estimate the degradation induced by protons on GaInP/GaAs/Ge triple-junction space solar cells.

  4. Decadal variations in estimated surface solar radiation over Switzerland since the late 19th century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Sanchez-Lorenzo

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Our knowledge on trends in surface solar radiation (SSR involves uncertainties due to the scarcity of long-term time series of SSR, especially with records before the second half of the 20th century. Here we study the trends of all-sky SSR from 1885 to 2010 in Switzerland, which have been estimated using a homogenous dataset of sunshine duration series. This variable is shown to be a useful proxy data of all-sky SSR, which can help to solve some of the current open issues in the dimming/brightening phenomenon. All-sky SSR has been fairly stable with little variations in the first half of the 20th century, unlike the second half of the 20th century that is characterized also in Switzerland by a dimming from the 1950s to the 1980s and a subsequent brightening. Cloud cover changes seem to explain the major part of the decadal variability observed in all-sky SSR, at least from 1885 to the 1970s; at this point, a discrepancy in the sign of the trend is visible in the all-sky SSR and cloud cover series from the 1970s to the present. Finally, an attempt to estimate SSR series for clear-sky conditions, based also on sunshine duration records since the 1930s, has been made for the first time. The mean clear-sky SSR series shows no relevant changes between the 1930s to the 1950s, then a decrease, smaller than the observed in the all-sky SSR, from the 1960s to 1970s, and ends with a strong increase from the 1980s up to the present. During the three decades from 1981 to 2010 the estimated clear-sky SSR trends reported in this study are in line with previous findings over Switzerland based on direct radiative flux measurements. Moreover, the signal of the El Chichón and Pinatubo volcanic eruption visible in the estimated clear-sky SSR records further demonstrates the potential to infer aerosol-induced radiation changes from sunshine duration observations.

  5. A New Hybrid Spatio-temporal Model for Estimating Daily Multi-year PM2.5 Concentrations Across Northeastern USA Using High Resolution Aerosol Optical Depth Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kloog, Itai; Chudnovsky, Alexandra A.; Just, Allan C.; Nordio, Francesco; Koutrakis, Petros; Coull, Brent A.; Lyapustin, Alexei; Wang, Yujie; Schwartz, Joel

    2014-01-01

    The use of satellite-based aerosol optical depth (AOD) to estimate fine particulate matter PM(sub 2.5) for epidemiology studies has increased substantially over the past few years. These recent studies often report moderate predictive power, which can generate downward bias in effect estimates. In addition, AOD measurements have only moderate spatial resolution, and have substantial missing data. We make use of recent advances in MODIS satellite data processing algorithms (Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC), which allow us to use 1 km (versus currently available 10 km) resolution AOD data.We developed and cross validated models to predict daily PM(sub 2.5) at a 1X 1 km resolution across the northeastern USA (New England, New York and New Jersey) for the years 2003-2011, allowing us to better differentiate daily and long term exposure between urban, suburban, and rural areas. Additionally, we developed an approach that allows us to generate daily high-resolution 200 m localized predictions representing deviations from the area 1 X 1 km grid predictions. We used mixed models regressing PM(sub 2.5) measurements against day-specific random intercepts, and fixed and random AOD and temperature slopes. We then use generalized additive mixed models with spatial smoothing to generate grid cell predictions when AOD was missing. Finally, to get 200 m localized predictions, we regressed the residuals from the final model for each monitor against the local spatial and temporal variables at each monitoring site. Our model performance was excellent (mean out-of-sample R(sup 2) = 0.88). The spatial and temporal components of the out-of-sample results also presented very good fits to the withheld data (R(sup 2) = 0.87, R(sup)2 = 0.87). In addition, our results revealed very little bias in the predicted concentrations (Slope of predictions versus withheld observations = 0.99). Our daily model results show high predictive accuracy at high spatial resolutions

  6. A Gridded Daily Min/Max Temperature Dataset With 0.1° Resolution for the Yangtze River Valley and its Error Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiong, Qiufen; Hu, Jianglin

    2013-05-01

    The minimum/maximum (Min/Max) temperature in the Yangtze River valley is decomposed into the climatic mean and anomaly component. A spatial interpolation is developed which combines the 3D thin-plate spline scheme for climatological mean and the 2D Barnes scheme for the anomaly component to create a daily Min/Max temperature dataset. The climatic mean field is obtained by the 3D thin-plate spline scheme because the relationship between the decreases in Min/Max temperature with elevation is robust and reliable on a long time-scale. The characteristics of the anomaly field tend to be related to elevation variation weakly, and the anomaly component is adequately analyzed by the 2D Barnes procedure, which is computationally efficient and readily tunable. With this hybridized interpolation method, a daily Min/Max temperature dataset that covers the domain from 99°E to 123°E and from 24°N to 36°N with 0.1° longitudinal and latitudinal resolution is obtained by utilizing daily Min/Max temperature data from three kinds of station observations, which are national reference climatological stations, the basic meteorological observing stations and the ordinary meteorological observing stations in 15 provinces and municipalities in the Yangtze River valley from 1971 to 2005. The error estimation of the gridded dataset is assessed by examining cross-validation statistics. The results show that the statistics of daily Min/Max temperature interpolation not only have high correlation coefficient (0.99) and interpolation efficiency (0.98), but also the mean bias error is 0.00 °C. For the maximum temperature, the root mean square error is 1.1 °C and the mean absolute error is 0.85 °C. For the minimum temperature, the root mean square error is 0.89 °C and the mean absolute error is 0.67 °C. Thus, the new dataset provides the distribution of Min/Max temperature over the Yangtze River valley with realistic, successive gridded data with 0.1° × 0.1° spatial resolution and

  7. Estimating Daily Maximum and Minimum Land Air Surface Temperature Using MODIS Land Surface Temperature Data and Ground Truth Data in Northern Vietnam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Phan Thanh Noi

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to evaluate quantitatively the land surface temperature (LST derived from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer MOD11A1 and MYD11A1 Collection 5 products for daily land air surface temperature (Ta estimation over a mountainous region in northern Vietnam. The main objective is to estimate maximum and minimum Ta (Ta-max and Ta-min using both TERRA and AQUA MODIS LST products (daytime and nighttime and auxiliary data, solving the discontinuity problem of ground measurements. There exist no studies about Vietnam that have integrated both TERRA and AQUA LST of daytime and nighttime for Ta estimation (using four MODIS LST datasets. In addition, to find out which variables are the most effective to describe the differences between LST and Ta, we have tested several popular methods, such as: the Pearson correlation coefficient, stepwise, Bayesian information criterion (BIC, adjusted R-squared and the principal component analysis (PCA of 14 variables (including: LST products (four variables, NDVI, elevation, latitude, longitude, day length in hours, Julian day and four variables of the view zenith angle, and then, we applied nine models for Ta-max estimation and nine models for Ta-min estimation. The results showed that the differences between MODIS LST and ground truth temperature derived from 15 climate stations are time and regional topography dependent. The best results for Ta-max and Ta-min estimation were achieved when we combined both LST daytime and nighttime of TERRA and AQUA and data from the topography analysis.

  8. Estimating solar radiation using NOAA/AVHRR and ground measurement data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fallahi, Somayeh; Amanollahi, Jamil; Tzanis, Chris G.; Ramli, Mohammad Firuz

    2018-01-01

    Solar radiation (SR) data are commonly used in different areas of renewable energy research. Researchers are often compelled to predict SR at ground stations for areas with no proper equipment. The objective of this study was to test the accuracy of the artificial neural network (ANN) and multiple linear regression (MLR) models for estimating monthly average SR over Kurdistan Province, Iran. Input data of the models were two data series with similar longitude, latitude, altitude, and month (number of months) data, but there were differences between the monthly mean temperatures in the first data series obtained from AVHRR sensor of NOAA satellite (DS1) and in the second data series measured at ground stations (DS2). In order to retrieve land surface temperature (LST) from AVHRR sensor, emissivity of the area was considered and for that purpose normalized vegetation difference index (NDVI) calculated from channels 1 and 2 of AVHRR sensor was utilized. The acquired results showed that the ANN model with DS1 data input with R2 = 0.96, RMSE = 1.04, MAE = 1.1 in the training phase and R2 = 0.96, RMSE = 1.06, MAE = 1.15 in the testing phase achieved more satisfactory performance compared with MLR model. It can be concluded that ANN model with remote sensing data has the potential to predict SR in locations with no ground measurement stations.

  9. Comparison of hourly surface downwelling solar radiation estimated from MSG-SEVIRI and forecast by the RAMS model with pyranometers over Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Federico, Stefano; Torcasio, Rosa Claudia; Sanò, Paolo; Casella, Daniele; Campanelli, Monica; Fokke Meirink, Jan; Wang, Ping; Vergari, Stefania; Diémoz, Henri; Dietrich, Stefano

    2017-06-01

    In this paper, we evaluate the performance of two global horizontal solar irradiance (GHI) estimates, one derived from Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) and another from the 1-day forecast of the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) mesoscale model. The horizontal resolution of the MSG-GHI is 3 × 5 km2 over Italy, which is the focus area of this study. For this paper, RAMS has the horizontal resolution of 4 km.The performances of the MSG-GHI estimate and RAMS-GHI 1-day forecast are evaluated for 1 year (1 June 2013-31 May 2014) against data of 12 ground-based pyranometers over Italy spanning a range of climatic conditions, i.e. from maritime Mediterranean to Alpine climate.Statistics for hourly GHI and daily integrated GHI are presented for the four seasons and the whole year for all the measurement sites. Different sky conditions are considered in the analysisResults for hourly data show an evident dependence on the sky conditions, with the root mean square error (RMSE) increasing from clear to cloudy conditions. The RMSE is substantially higher for Alpine stations in all the seasons, mainly because of the increase of the cloud coverage for these stations, which is not well represented at the satellite and model resolutions. Considering the yearly statistics computed from hourly data for the RAMS model, the RMSE ranges from 152 W m-2 (31 %) obtained for Cozzo Spadaro, a maritime station, to 287 W m-2 (82 %) for Aosta, an Alpine site. Considering the yearly statistics computed from hourly data for MSG-GHI, the minimum RMSE is for Cozzo Spadaro (71 W m-2, 14 %), while the maximum is for Aosta (181 W m-2, 51 %). The mean bias error (MBE) shows the tendency of RAMS to over-forecast the GHI, while no specific behaviour is found for MSG-GHI.Results for daily integrated GHI show a lower RMSE compared to hourly GHI evaluation for both RAMS-GHI 1-day forecast and MSG-GHI estimate. Considering the yearly evaluation, the RMSE of daily integrated GHI is at least 9

  10. Toward an estimation of daily european CO{sub 2} fluxes at high spatial resolution by inversion of atmospheric transport; Vers une estimation des flux de CO{sub 2} journaliers europeens a haute resolution par inversion du transport atmospherique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carouge, C

    2006-04-15

    Since the end of the 1980's, measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide have been used to estimate global and regional fluxes of CO{sub 2}. This is possible because CO{sub 2} concentration variation is directly linked to flux variation by atmospheric transport. We can find the spatial and temporal distribution of fluxes from concentration measurements by 'inverting' the atmospheric transport. Until recently, most CO{sub 2} inversions have used monthly mean CO{sub 2} atmospheric concentration measurements to infer monthly fluxes. Considering the sparseness of the global CO{sub 2} measurement network, fluxes were a priori aggregated on sub-continental regions and distributed on a fixed spatial pattern within these regions. Only one flux coefficient per month for each region was optimized. With this strong constraint, estimated fluxes can be biased by non-perfect distribution of fluxes within each region (aggregation error). Therefore, flux estimation at model resolution is being developed where the hard constraint of a fixed distribution within a region is replaced by a soft constraint of covariances between flux uncertainties. The use of continuous observations from an increasing number of measurement sites offers a new challenge for inverse modelers. We investigate the use of daily averaged observations to infer daily CO{sub 2} fluxes at model resolution over Europe. We have developed a global synthesis Bayesian inversion to invert daily fluxes at model resolution (50 x 50 km over Europe) from daily averaged CO{sub 2} concentrations. We have obtained estimated fluxes for the year 2001 over Europe using the 10 European continuous sites from the AEROCARB network. The global atmospheric model LMDZt is used with a nested grid over Europe. It is necessary to add a priori spatial and temporal correlations between flux errors to constrain the Bayesian inversion. We present the impact on estimated fluxes of three different spatial correlations based on

  11. Quantifying the impact of daily and seasonal variation in sap pH on xylem dissolved inorganic carbon estimates in plum trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erda, F G; Bloemen, J; Steppe, K

    2014-01-01

    In studies on internal CO2 transport, average xylem sap pH (pH(x)) is one of the factors used for calculation of the concentration of dissolved inorganic carbon in the xylem sap ([CO2 *]). Lack of detailed pH(x) measurements at high temporal resolution could be a potential source of error when evaluating [CO2*] dynamics. In this experiment, we performed continuous measurements of CO2 concentration ([CO2]) and stem temperature (T(stem)), complemented with pH(x) measurements at 30-min intervals during the day at various stages of the growing season (Day of the Year (DOY): 86 (late winter), 128 (mid-spring) and 155 (early summer)) on a plum tree (Prunus domestica L. cv. Reine Claude d'Oullins). We used the recorded pH(x) to calculate [CO2*] based on T(stem) and the corresponding measured [CO2]. No statistically significant difference was found between mean [CO2*] calculated with instantaneous pH(x) and daily average pH(x). However, using an average pH(x) value from a different part of the growing season than the measurements of [CO2] and T(stem) to estimate [CO2*] led to a statistically significant error. The error varied between 3.25 ± 0.01% under-estimation and 3.97 ± 0.01% over-estimation, relative to the true [CO2*] data. Measured pH(x) did not show a significant daily variation, unlike [CO2], which increased during the day and declined at night. As the growing season progressed, daily average [CO2] (3.4%, 5.3%, 7.4%) increased and average pH(x) (5.43, 5.29, 5.20) decreased. Increase in [CO2] will increase its solubility in xylem sap according to Henry's law, and the dissociation of [CO2*] will negatively affect pH(x). Our results are the first quantifying the error in [CO2*] due to the interaction between [CO2] and pH(x) on a seasonal time scale. We found significant changes in pH(x) across the growing season, but overall the effect on the calculation of [CO2*] remained within an error range of 4%. However, it is possible that the error could be more

  12. A simple daily soil-water balance model for estimating the spatial and temporal distribution of groundwater recharge in temperate humid areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dripps, W.R.; Bradbury, K.R.

    2007-01-01

    Quantifying the spatial and temporal distribution of natural groundwater recharge is usually a prerequisite for effective groundwater modeling and management. As flow models become increasingly utilized for management decisions, there is an increased need for simple, practical methods to delineate recharge zones and quantify recharge rates. Existing models for estimating recharge distributions are data intensive, require extensive parameterization, and take a significant investment of time in order to establish. The Wisconsin Geological and Natural History Survey (WGNHS) has developed a simple daily soil-water balance (SWB) model that uses readily available soil, land cover, topographic, and climatic data in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) to estimate the temporal and spatial distribution of groundwater recharge at the watershed scale for temperate humid areas. To demonstrate the methodology and the applicability and performance of the model, two case studies are presented: one for the forested Trout Lake watershed of north central Wisconsin, USA and the other for the urban-agricultural Pheasant Branch Creek watershed of south central Wisconsin, USA. Overall, the SWB model performs well and presents modelers and planners with a practical tool for providing recharge estimates for modeling and water resource planning purposes in humid areas. ?? Springer-Verlag 2007.

  13. Estimation of the economical and ecological efficiency of the solar heat supply in Russia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marchenko, O.V.; Solomin, S.V.

    2001-01-01

    One carried out numerical study of application efficiency of solar heat supply systems in the climatic conditions of Russia with regard to their economical competitiveness with organic fuel heat conventional sources and role in reduction of greenhouse gas releases. One defined the regions where (under certain conditions) application of solar energy to generate low-potential heat may be reasonable [ru

  14. A theoretical framework for Ångström equation. Its virtues and liabilities in solar energy estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stefu, Nicoleta; Paulescu, Marius; Blaga, Robert; Calinoiu, Delia; Pop, Nicolina; Boata, Remus; Paulescu, Eugenia

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A self-consistent derivation of the Ångström equation is carried out. • The theoretical assessment on its performance is well supported by the measured data. • The variability in cloud transmittance is a major source of uncertainty for estimates. • The degradation in time and space of the empirical equations calibration is assessed. - Abstract: The relation between solar irradiation and sunshine duration was investigated from the very beginning of solar radiation measurements. Many studies were devoted to this topic aiming to include the complex influence of clouds on solar irradiation into equations. This study is focused on the linear relationship between the clear sky index and the relative sunshine proposed by the pioneering work of Ångström. A full semi-empirical derivation of the equation, highlighting its virtues and liabilities, is presented. Specific Ångström – type equations for beam and diffuse solar irradiation were derived separately. The sum of the two components recovers the traditional form of the Ångström equation. The physical meaning of the Ångström parameter, as the average of the clouds transmittance, emerges naturally. The theoretical results on the Ångström equation performance are well supported by the tests against measured data. Using long-term records of global solar irradiation and sunshine duration from thirteen European radiometric stations, the influence of the Ångström constraint (slope equals one minus intercept) on the accuracy of the estimates is analyzed. Another focus is on the assessment of the degradation of the equation calibration. The temporal variability in cloud transmittance (both long-term trend and fluctuations) is a major source of uncertainty for Ångström equation estimates.

  15. Improving HelioClim-3 estimates of surface solar irradiance using the McClear clear-sky model and recent advances in atmosphere composition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Qu

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The HelioClim-3 database (HC3v3 provides records of surface solar irradiation every 15 min, estimated by processing images from the geostationary meteorological Meteosat satellites using climatological data sets of the atmospheric Linke turbidity factor. This technical note proposes a method to improve a posteriori HC3v3 by combining it with data records of the irradiation under clear skies from the new McClear clear-sky model, whose inputs are the advanced global aerosol property forecasts and physically consistent total column content in water vapour and ozone produced by the MACC (Monitoring Atmosphere Composition and Climate projects. The method is validated by comparison with a series of ground measurements for 15 min and 1 h for 6 stations and for daily irradiation for 23 stations. The correlation coefficient is large, greater than respectively 0.92, 0.94, and 0.97, for 15 min, 1 h and daily irradiation. The bias ranges from −4 to 4% of the mean observed irradiation for most sites. The relative root mean square difference (RMSD varies between 14 and 38% for 15 min, 12 and 33% for 1 h irradiation, and 6 and 20% for daily irradiation. As a rule of thumb, the farther from the nadir of the Meteosat satellite located at latitude 0° and longitude 0°, and the greater the occurrence of fragmented cloud cover, the greater the relative RMSD. The method improves HC3v3 in most cases, and with no degradation in the others. A systematic correction of HC3v3 with McClear is recommended.

  16. Estimating option values of solar radiation management assuming that climate sensitivity is uncertain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arino, Yosuke; Akimoto, Keigo; Sano, Fuminori; Homma, Takashi; Oda, Junichiro; Tomoda, Toshimasa

    2016-05-24

    Although solar radiation management (SRM) might play a role as an emergency geoengineering measure, its potential risks remain uncertain, and hence there are ethical and governance issues in the face of SRM's actual deployment. By using an integrated assessment model, we first present one possible methodology for evaluating the value arising from retaining an SRM option given the uncertainty of climate sensitivity, and also examine sensitivities of the option value to SRM's side effects (damages). Reflecting the governance challenges on immediate SRM deployment, we assume scenarios in which SRM could only be deployed with a limited degree of cooling (0.5 °C) only after 2050, when climate sensitivity uncertainty is assumed to be resolved and only when the sensitivity is found to be high (T2x = 4 °C). We conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis with constraining temperature rise as the objective. The SRM option value is originated from its rapid cooling capability that would alleviate the mitigation requirement under climate sensitivity uncertainty and thereby reduce mitigation costs. According to our estimates, the option value during 1990-2049 for a +2.4 °C target (the lowest temperature target level for which there were feasible solutions in this model study) relative to preindustrial levels were in the range between $2.5 and $5.9 trillion, taking into account the maximum level of side effects shown in the existing literature. The result indicates that lower limits of the option values for temperature targets below +2.4 °C would be greater than $2.5 trillion.

  17. Influence of the spectral distribution of a solar simulator and of the outer diffuse radiation in the estimation of the optical yield of a thermal solar receiver; Influencia de la distribucion espectral de un simulador solar y de la radiacion difusa exterior en la estimacion del rendimiento optico de un captador solar termico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sallaberry, F.; Garcia de Jalon, A.; Ramirez, L.; Olano, X.; Bernad, I.; Erice, R.

    2008-07-01

    In this paper we will show the results of the analysis of factors that influence the estimation of optical efficiency of solar thermal collectors testes according to the European standard UNE-EN 12975-2. Indoor tests with solar simulator involve control of the spectrum of its lamps to ensure that the difference with the Sun one does not change the optical efficiency {eta}{sub 0} of the collector. For outdoor tests, the diffuse radiation should be control as well. In the laboratory (LCS) of CENER, solar collectors tests are done according to part 6.1 of the standard UNE{sub E}N 12975-2 in continuous solar simulator. This study estimated the spectral correction applied to the estimation of optical efficiency of some solar collectors, with different selective materials. Likewise, we will weight the influence of terms related to diffuse radiation and spectral distribution. (Author)

  18. Estimating the solar radiation environment on the soil surface between rows using crop canopy architectural models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuge, K.; Haraguchi, T.; Nakano, Y.; Kuroda, M.; Funakoshi, T.

    2002-01-01

    The objective of this study is quantification of the solar radiation in the farmland located in the hilly and mountainous areas, considering the effect of the shelter adjacent to the field, such as the forest (This effect is called as the edge-effect in this study.). To evaluate the edge-effect on the solar radiation environment in the farmland, solar radiations are measured at the center and edge of the study site adjacent to the forest. The simulation model is composed, coupling with the fish-eye projection method and procedure for the separating direct and diffuse solar radiations. Using this model, the diurnal solar radiations are simulated at the center and edge of the study site. The simulation result showed good agreement with the observation. The spatial distribution of the solar radiation in an observational field is quantified by this method, considering the edge-effect. The simulation result indicated that the solar radiation environment on the field surface is affected by the shelter adjacent to the field and the field direction. (author)

  19. Estimation of solar potential in Turkey by artificial neural networks using meteorological and geographical data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soezen, Adnan; Arcaklioglu, Erol; Oezalp, Mehmet

    2004-01-01

    Turkey is located at the Mediterranean at 36 deg. and 42 deg. N latitudes and has a typical Mediterranean climate. The solar energy potential is very high in Turkey. The yearly average solar radiation is 3.6 kW h/m 2 day, and the total yearly radiation period is ∼2610 h. This study consists of two cases. Firstly, the main focus of this study is to put forward the solar energy potential in Turkey using artificial neural networks (ANNs). Secondly, in this study, the best approach was investigated for each station by using different learning algorithms and a logistic sigmoid transfer function in the neural network with developed software. In order to train the neural network, meteorological data for last three years (2000-2002) from 17 stations (Ankara, Samsun, Edirne, Istanbul-Goeztepe, Van, Izmir, Denizli, Sanliurfa, Mersin, Adana, Gaziantep, Aydin, Bursa, Diyarbakir, Yozgat, Antalya and Mugla) spread over Turkey were used as training (11 stations) and testing (6 stations) data. Meteorological and geographical data (latitude, longitude, altitude, month, mean sunshine duration and mean temperature) are used in the input layer of the network. Solar radiation is in the output layer. The maximum mean absolute percentage error was found to be less than 6.735% and R 2 values were found to be about 99.893% for the testing stations. However, these values were found to be 4.398% and 99.965% for the training stations. The trained and tested ANN models show greater accuracy for evaluating the solar resource possibilities in regions where a network of monitoring stations has not been established in Turkey. The predicted solar potential values from the ANN are given in the form of monthly maps. These maps are of prime importance for different working disciplines, like scientists, architects, meteorologists and solar engineers, in Turkey. The predictions from the ANN models could enable scientists to locate and design solar energy systems in Turkey and determine the best solar

  20. MAGNETIC QUENCHING OF TURBULENT DIFFUSIVITY: RECONCILING MIXING-LENGTH THEORY ESTIMATES WITH KINEMATIC DYNAMO MODELS OF THE SOLAR CYCLE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Munoz-Jaramillo, Andres; Martens, Petrus C. H.; Nandy, Dibyendu

    2011-01-01

    The turbulent magnetic diffusivity in the solar convection zone is one of the most poorly constrained ingredients of mean-field dynamo models. This lack of constraint has previously led to controversy regarding the most appropriate set of parameters, as different assumptions on the value of turbulent diffusivity lead to radically different solar cycle predictions. Typically, the dynamo community uses double-step diffusivity profiles characterized by low values of diffusivity in the bulk of the convection zone. However, these low diffusivity values are not consistent with theoretical estimates based on mixing-length theory, which suggest much higher values for turbulent diffusivity. To make matters worse, kinematic dynamo simulations cannot yield sustainable magnetic cycles using these theoretical estimates. In this work, we show that magnetic cycles become viable if we combine the theoretically estimated diffusivity profile with magnetic quenching of the diffusivity. Furthermore, we find that the main features of this solution can be reproduced by a dynamo simulation using a prescribed (kinematic) diffusivity profile that is based on the spatiotemporal geometric average of the dynamically quenched diffusivity. This bridges the gap between dynamically quenched and kinematic dynamo models, supporting their usage as viable tools for understanding the solar magnetic cycle.

  1. Effects of correcting missing daily feed intake values on the genetic parameters and estimated breeding values for feeding traits in pigs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ito, Tetsuya; Fukawa, Kazuo; Kamikawa, Mai; Nikaidou, Satoshi; Taniguchi, Masaaki; Arakawa, Aisaku; Tanaka, Genki; Mikawa, Satoshi; Furukawa, Tsutomu; Hirose, Kensuke

    2018-01-01

    Daily feed intake (DFI) is an important consideration for improving feed efficiency, but measurements using electronic feeder systems contain many missing and incorrect values. Therefore, we evaluated three methods for correcting missing DFI data (quadratic, orthogonal polynomial, and locally weighted (Loess) regression equations) and assessed the effects of these missing values on the genetic parameters and the estimated breeding values (EBV) for feeding traits. DFI records were obtained from 1622 Duroc pigs, comprising 902 individuals without missing DFI and 720 individuals with missing DFI. The Loess equation was the most suitable method for correcting the missing DFI values in 5-50% randomly deleted datasets among the three equations. Both variance components and heritability for the average DFI (ADFI) did not change because of the missing DFI proportion and Loess correction. In terms of rank correlation and information criteria, Loess correction improved the accuracy of EBV for ADFI compared to randomly deleted cases. These findings indicate that the Loess equation is useful for correcting missing DFI values for individual pigs and that the correction of missing DFI values could be effective for the estimation of breeding values and genetic improvement using EBV for feeding traits. © 2017 The Authors. Animal Science Journal published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Japanese Society of Animal Science.

  2. Estimation of total as well as bioaccessible levels and average daily dietary intake of iodine from Japanese edible seaweeds by epithermal neutron activation analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fukushima, M.; Chatt, A.

    2012-01-01

    An epi-thermal instrumental neutron activation analysis (EINAA) method in conjunction with Compton suppression spectrometry (EINAA-CSS) was used for the determination of total iodine in eight different species of edible seaweeds from Japan. This method gave an absolute detection limit of about 2 μg. The accuracy of the method was evaluated using various reference materials and found to be generally in agreement within ±6% of the certified values. The longitudinal distributions of iodine at different growing stages in Japanese sea mustard and tangle seaweeds were investigated. For a 150-cm-high tangle, the highest concentration (5,360 mg/kg) of iodine was found at the root, then decreased slowly to 780 mg/kg in the middle portion (60-75 cm), and increased to 2,300 mg/kg at the apex. On the other hand, for a 190-cm-high sea mustard the highest levels of iodine were found both at the roots (164 mg/kg) and apex (152 mg/kg) with lower values (98 mg/kg) in the middle section. In order to estimate the bioaccessible fraction of iodine, seaweeds were digested by an in vitro enzymolysis method, dietary fibre separated from residue, and both fractions analyzed by EINAA-CSS. The average daily dietary intakes of total (0.14 mg) as well as bioaccessible fraction (0.12 mg) of iodine from the consumption of sea mustards were estimated. (author)

  3. Estimating daily time series of streamflow using hydrological model calibrated based on satellite observations of river water surface width: Toward real world applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Wenchao; Ishidaira, Hiroshi; Bastola, Satish; Yu, Jingshan

    2015-05-01

    Lacking observation data for calibration constrains applications of hydrological models to estimate daily time series of streamflow. Recent improvements in remote sensing enable detection of river water-surface width from satellite observations, making possible the tracking of streamflow from space. In this study, a method calibrating hydrological models using river width derived from remote sensing is demonstrated through application to the ungauged Irrawaddy Basin in Myanmar. Generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) is selected as a tool for automatic calibration and uncertainty analysis. Of 50,000 randomly generated parameter sets, 997 are identified as behavioral, based on comparing model simulation with satellite observations. The uncertainty band of streamflow simulation can span most of 10-year average monthly observed streamflow for moderate and high flow conditions. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency is 95.7% for the simulated streamflow at the 50% quantile. These results indicate that application to the target basin is generally successful. Beyond evaluating the method in a basin lacking streamflow data, difficulties and possible solutions for applications in the real world are addressed to promote future use of the proposed method in more ungauged basins. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Estimated solar wind-implanted helium-3 distribution on the Moon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, J. R.; Swindle, T.D.; Lucey, P.G.

    1999-01-01

    Among the solar wind-implanted volatiles present in the lunar regolith, 3 He is possibly the most valuable resource because of its potential as a fusion fuel. The abundance of 3 He in the lunar regolith at a given location depends on surface maturity, the amount of solar wind fluence, and titanium content, because ilmenite (FeTiO3) retains helium much better than other major lunar minerals. Surface maturity and TiO2 maps from Clementine multispectral data sets are combined here with a solar wind fluence model to produce a 3He abundance map of the Moon. Comparison of the predicted 3He values to landing site observations shows good correlation. The highest 3He abundances occur in the farside maria (due to greater solar wind fluence received) and in higher TiO2 nearside mare regions.

  5. Estimates of the price of hydrogen as a medium for wind and solar sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bockris, John O'M.; Veziroglu, T. Nejat

    2007-01-01

    The rejection of hydrogen as a solution to global warming by becoming the medium of wind and solar was made when gasoline was priced at $1/gallon. From wind, H 2 would now cost (by electrolysis of water and steam) less than $3 for an amount equivalent in energy to that in a gallon of gasoline ('equivalent'). From solar photovoltaics (pv), H 2 would be sinking in price between $8 toward $5 equivalent as the efficiency of solar pv increases toward 20%. Solar thermal's present prices offer about one-half the solar pv prices. Prediction of the maximum of the delivery rate of world oil is [Laherre's Oil Production Forecast, 1950-2150. Reprinted with permission from correspondence with William Horvath, U.S. Department of Energy, March 29, 2001] 2010. Future energy sources will develop inexhaustible energies from wind, solar, geothermal, tidal, and wave sources. The common media will be hydrogen and electricity. These sources yield energy at around one-half the cost of nuclear fission. Growing corn to make alcohol involves a net loss of energy and need for a heating mechanism. It may increase the Greenhouse. (author)

  6. Estimated Daily Average Per Capita Water Ingestion by Child and Adult Age Categories Based on USDA's 1994-96 and 1998 Continuing Survey of Food Intakes by Individuals (Journal Article)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Current water ingestion estimates are important for the assessment of risk to human populations of exposure to water-borne pollutants. This paper reports mean and percentile estimates of the distributions of daily average per capita water ingestion for 12 age range groups. The a...

  7. Estimativas das componentes da radiação solar incidente em superfícies inclinadas baseadas na radiação global horizontal Estimates of solar radiation components on a tilted surface based on global horizontal radiation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adilson P. Souza

    2011-03-01

    clearness index for inclined and horizontal surfaces. In annual groups, the lower performances were observed in the estimation of inclined daily diffuse radiation, with maximum Root Mean Square Error to 3.89 MJ m-2 d-1 (43.65% and adjustments around 62%. In estimates of global and direct components of solar radiation on inclined planes, both annual and monthly equations can be applied, with performance dependents to climatic conditions.

  8. Estimate of the upper limit of amplitude of Solar Cycle No. 23

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silbergleit, V. M; Larocca, P. A [Departamento de Fisica, UBA (Argentina)

    2001-07-01

    AA* indices of values greater than 60 10{sup -9} Tesla are considered in order to characterize geomagnetic storms since the available series of these indices comprise the years from 1868 to 1998 (The longest existing interval of geomagnetic activity). By applying the precursor technique we have performed an analysis of the storm periods and the solar activity, obtaining a good correlation between the number of storms ({alpha})(characterized by the AA* indices) and the amplitudes of each solar cycle ({zeta}) and those of the next ({mu}). Using the multiple regression method applied to {alpha}=A+B{zeta} +C{mu}, the constants are calculated and the values found are: A=-33 {+-}18, B= 0.74{+-}0.13 y C= 0.56{+-}0.13. The present statistical method indicates that the current solar cycle (number 23) would have an upper limit of 202{+-}57 monthy mean sunspots. This value indicates that the solar activity would be high causing important effects on the Earth's environment. [Spanish] Se consideran los valores de los indices AA* de valor mayor que 60 10{sup -9} Tesla para caracterizar tormentas geomagneticas ya que las series disponibles de estos indices van desde 1868 hasta 1998 (el mas largo intervalo de la actividad geomagnetica existente). Aplicando la tecnica del precursor hemos realizado un analisis de los periodos de tormentas y la actividad solar obteniendo una buena correlacion entre el numero de tormentas ({alpha}) (caracterizado por los indices AA*) y las amplitudes de los ciclos solares corriente ({zeta}) y el proximo ({mu}). Usando el metodo de regresion multiple aplicado a {alpha}=A+B{zeta} +C{mu}, las consonantes resultaron: A=-33 {+-}18, B= 0.74{+-}0.13 y C= 0.56{+-}0.13. El metodo estadistico presentado indica que el ciclo actual (numero 23) tendria un pico de 202{+-} 57 manchas mensuales promedio. Este valor indica que la actividad solar seria alta produciendo importantes efectos en el medio ambiente terrestre.

  9. Estimativa do saldo de radiação em girassol como função da radiação solar global Estimation of net radiation in sunflower as a function of solar radiation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arno B Heldwein

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Objetivou-se com este trabalho a obtenção de modelos para a estimativa do saldo de radiação (Q* a partir da radiação solar global incidente (Rg sobre dosseis de plantas de girassol. Os experimentos foram conduzidos na área experimental da Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, nos anos de 2007, 2008 e 2009. O Q* foi medido com saldos radiômetros instalados acima das plantas e a Rg em estações meteorológicas automáticas. Para fins de cálculo foram efetuadas as somas diárias de Q* e de Rg, obtendo-se a relação entre Q* e Rg para cada dia. Obtiveram-se, então, modelos com elevado coeficiente de determinação e baixo RQME no teste entre valores medidos e estimados de um banco de dados independente, indicando precisão na estimativa do saldo de radiação em dosseis de girassol, independendo da época de cultivo no ano. A função linear geral obtida com dados de diferentes épocas de cultivo foi: Q* = 0,5285 Rg (R² = 0,95, que no teste apresentou RQME = 1,04 MJ m-2 d-1. Conclui-se que o saldo de radiação (Q* pode ser estimado utilizando-se a radiação solar global medida em estações automáticas, com precisão suficiente para os diferentes fins na agrometeorologia do girassol.This study aimed to develop models for estimating the net radiation (Q * from the incident solar radiation (Rg on canopies of sunflower plants. The experiments were conducted at the Plant Science Department of the Federal University of Santa Maria in 2007, 2008 and 2009 years. Q* was measured by net radiometers above the plants and Rg by automatic weather stations. For purposes of calculation, daily sums of Q* and Rg were performed, obtaining the relationship between Q* and Rg for each day. Models with high coefficient of determination and low RQME were obtained in test between measured and estimated values from an independent database, indicating precision to estimate net radiation in sunflower canopies, regardless of cultivation time in year. The general

  10. Estimation of monthly global solar radiation in the eastern Mediterranean region in Turkey by using artificial neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sahan, Muhittin; Yakut, Emre

    2016-01-01

    In this study, an artificial neural network (ANN) model was used to estimate monthly average global solar radiation on a horizontal surface for selected 5 locations in Mediterranean region for period of 18 years (1993-2010). Meteorological and geographical data were taken from Turkish State Meteorological Service. The ANN architecture designed is a feed-forward back-propagation model with one-hidden layer containing 21 neurons with hyperbolic tangent sigmoid as the transfer function and one output layer utilized a linear transfer function (purelin). The training algorithm used in ANN model was the Levenberg Marquand back propagation algorith (trainlm). Results obtained from ANN model were compared with measured meteorological values by using statistical methods. A correlation coefficient of 97.97 (~98%) was obtained with root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.852 MJ/m 2 , mean square error (MSE) of 0.725 MJ/m 2 , mean absolute bias error (MABE) 10.659MJ/m 2 , and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 4.8%. Results show good agreement between the estimated and measured values of global solar radiation. We suggest that the developed ANN model can be used to predict solar radiation another location and conditions

  11. Estimation of solar potential in Turkey by artificial neural networks using meteorological and geographical data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sozen, Adnan; Ozalp, Mehmet [Gazi Univ., Mechanical Education Dept., Ankara (Turkey); Arcaklioglu, Erol [Krkkale Univ., Mechanical Engineering Dept., Krkkale (Turkey)

    2004-11-01

    Turkey is located at the Mediterranean at 36 deg and 42 deg N latitudes and has a typical Mediterranean climate. The solar energy potential is very high in Turkey. The yearly average solar radiation is 3.6 kW h/m{sup 2} day, and the total yearly radiation period is {approx}2610 h. This study consists of two cases. Firstly, the main focus of this study is to put forward the solar energy potential in Turkey using artificial neural networks (ANNs). Secondly, in this study, the best approach was investigated for each station by using different learning algorithms and a logistic sigmoid transfer function in the neural network with developed software. In order to train the neural network, meteorological data for last three years (2000-2002) from 17 stations (Ankara, Samsun, Edirne, Istanbul-Goztepe, Van, Izmir, Denizli, Sanl urfa, Mersin, Adana, Gaziantep, Ayd n, Bursa, Diyarbak r, Yozgat, Antalya and Mugla) spread over Turkey were used as training (11 stations) and testing (6 stations) data. Meteorological and geographical data (latitude, longitude, altitude, month, mean sunshine duration and mean temperature) are used in the input layer of the network. Solar radiation is in the output layer. The maximum mean absolute percentage error was found to be less than 6.735% and R{sup 2} values were found to be about 99.893% for the testing stations. However, these values were found to be 4.398% and 99.965% for the training stations. The trained and tested ANN models show greater accuracy for evaluating the solar resource possibilities in regions where a network of monitoring stations has not been established in Turkey. The predicted solar potential values from the ANN are given in the form of monthly maps. These maps are of prime importance for different working disciplines, like scientists, architects, meteorologists and solar engineers, in Turkey. The predictions from the ANN models could enable scientists to locate and design solar energy systems in Turkey and determine the

  12. Thermal performance parameters estimation of hot box type solar cooker by using artificial neural network

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kurt, Hueseyin; Atik, Kemal; Oezkaymak, Mehmet; Recebli, Ziyaddin [Zonguldak Karaelmas University, Karabuk Technical Education Faculty, 78200 Karabuk (Turkey)

    2008-02-15

    Work to date has shown that Artificial Neural Network (ANN) has not been used for predicting thermal performance parameters of a solar cooker. The objective of this study is to predict thermal performance parameters such as absorber plate, enclosure air and pot water temperatures of the experimentally investigated box type solar cooker by using the ANN. Data set is obtained from the box type solar cooker which was tested under various experimental conditions. A feed-forward neural network based on back propagation algorithm was developed to predict the thermal performance of solar cooker with and without reflector. Mathematical formulations derived from the ANN model are presented for each predicting temperatures. The experimental data set consists of 126 values. These were divided into two groups, of which the 96 values were used for training/learning of the network and the rest of the data (30 values) for testing/validation of the network performance. The performance of the ANN predictions was evaluated by comparing the prediction results with the experimental results. The results showed a good regression analysis with the correlation coefficients in the range of 0.9950-0.9987 and mean relative errors (MREs) in the range of 3.925-7.040% for the test data set. The regression coefficients indicated that the ANN model can successfully be used for the prediction of the thermal performance parameters of a box type solar cooker with a high degree of accuracy. (author)

  13. Estimation of the effects of an intensive solar intervention in the historical centre of Jaen (Spain)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Almonacid, G.; Nofuentes, G.; Aguilar, J.D.; Casa, J. de la; Garrido, A.

    1995-01-01

    This paper is directed at evaluating the theoretical potential of an intensive solar intervention in the historical centre of the city of Jaen (Spain). Using the outputs of a solar intervention proposal comprising biomass, photovoltaics and solar thermal domestic hot water (DHW) over a 50-building sample (in which those suitable for solar measures have been selected by evaluating each one over a collection of parameters), energy savings, environmental benefits and economic aspects of the envisaged actions are extrapolated over the entire historical centre. A saving of about 70% of conventional source energy annual consumption and a decrease of some 70% and 73% of CO 2 and SO x annual releases, respectively, could be reached with respect to the present situation. Besides, an amount of conventionally generated electricity equivalent to the yearly photovoltaic-generated electricity would require 131 500 m 3 of water a year, which is a rather significant feature for a dry climate like that of the city. The unitary cost of energy in the new scenario would be 60.7 pta kWh -1 for photovoltaics, 329.9 pta m -3 for DHW using solar thermal installations and 4.6 Pta kWh -1 for biomass heating (1 USdollars = 132.7 pta; 1 ECU 160.9 pta). (author)

  14. ESTIMATION OF SOLAR ENERGY ON VERTICAL 3D BUILDING WALLS ON CITY QUARTER SCALE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Jaugsch

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available In urban areas, solar energy is one promising source of renewable energy to achieve the EU parliament’s goal of reducing CO2 emissions by 20 % compared to 1990. Although annual radiation on vertical walls is lower than that on roof surfaces, they are larger in area and, therefore may contribute to energy production. On the other hand, the modelling of shadowing effects is cost intensive in an complex urban environment. Here we present a method for the calculation of solar potential on vertical walls for simple 2D maps with additional building height information. We introduced observer point columns that enable a fast decision whether a whole vertical set of observer points is illuminated or not. By the introduction of a maximum shade length, we reduce processing time in ArcGIS. 206,291 points of 130 buildings have been analysed in time steps of 15 minutes resulting in 15 769 pairs of solar angles. Results disprove the potential of vertical walls serving to fill the winter gap of roof mounted solar energy plants. Best wall orientation for the deployment of solar panels are west and east in summer, whereas it is southeast in winter.

  15. Probability Estimates of Solar Proton Doses During Periods of Low Sunspot Number for Short Duration Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atwell, William; Tylka, Allan J.; Dietrich, William F.; Rojdev, Kristina; Matzkind, Courtney

    2016-01-01

    In an earlier paper presented at ICES in 2015, we investigated solar particle event (SPE) radiation exposures (absorbed dose) to small, thinly-shielded spacecraft during a period when the monthly smoothed sunspot number (SSN) was less than 30. Although such months are generally considered "solar-quiet", SPEs observed during these months even include Ground Level Events, the most energetic type of SPE. In this paper, we add to previous study those SPEs that occurred in 1973-2015 when the SSN was greater than 30 but less than 50. Based on the observable energy range of the solar protons, we classify the event as GLEs, sub-GLEs, and sub-sub-GLEs, all of which are potential contributors to the radiation hazard. We use the spectra of these events to construct a probabilistic model of the absorbed dose due to solar protons when SSN < 50 at various confidence levels for various depths of shielding and for various mission durations. We provide plots and tables of solar proton-induced absorbed dose as functions of confidence level, shielding thickness, and mission-duration that will be useful to system designers.

  16. Evaluation of global solar radiation models for Shanghai, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yao, Wanxiang; Li, Zhengrong; Wang, Yuyan; Jiang, Fujian; Hu, Lingzhou

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • 108 existing models are compared and analyzed by 42 years meteorological data. • Fitting models based on measured data are established according to 42 years data. • All models are compared by recently 10 years meteorological data. • The results show that polynomial models are the most accurate models. - Abstract: In this paper, 89 existing monthly average daily global solar radiation models and 19 existing daily global solar radiation models are compared and analyzed by 42 years meteorological data. The results show that for existing monthly average daily global solar radiation models, linear models and polynomial models have been able to estimate global solar radiation accurately, and complex equation types cannot obviously improve the precision. Considering direct parameters such as latitude, altitude, solar altitude and sunshine duration can help improve the accuracy of the models, but indirect parameters cannot. For existing daily global solar radiation models, multi-parameter models are more accurate than single-parameter models, polynomial models are more accurate than linear models. Then measured data fitting monthly average daily global solar radiation models (MADGSR models) and daily global solar radiation models (DGSR models) are established according to 42 years meteorological data. Finally, existing models and fitting models based on measured data are comparative analysis by recent 10 years meteorological data, and the results show that polynomial models (MADGSR model 2, DGSR model 2 and Maduekwe model 2) are the most accurate models

  17. Solar Radiation and Cloud Radiative Forcing in the Pacific Warm Pool Estimated Using TOGA COARE Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, Ming-Dah; Chou, Shu-Hsien; Zhao, Wenzhong

    1999-01-01

    The energy budget of the tropical western Pacific (TWP) is particularly important because this is one of the most energetic convection regions on the Earth. Nearly half of the solar radiation incident at the top of atmosphere is absorbed at the surface and only about 22% absorbed in the atmosphere. A large portion of the excess heat absorbed at the surface is transferred to the atmosphere through evaporation, which provides energy and water for convection and precipitation. The western equatorial Pacific is characterized by the highest sea surface temperature (SST) and heaviest rainfall in the world ocean. A small variation of SST associated with the eastward shift of the warm pool during El-Nino/Souther Oscillation changes the atmospheric circulation pattern and affects the global climate. In a study of the TWP surface heat and momentum fluxes during the Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE) Intensive observing period (IOP) from November 1992 to February have found that the solar radiation is the most important component of the surface energy budget, which undergoes significant temporal and spatial variation. The variations are influenced by the two 40-50 days Madden Julian Oscillations (MJOs) which propagated eastward from the Indian Ocean to the Central Pacific during the IOP. The TWP surface solar radiation during the COARE IOP was investigated by a number of studies. In addition, the effects of clouds on the solar heating of the atmosphere in the TWP was studied using energy budget analysis. In this study, we present some results of the TWP surface solar shortwave or SW radiation budget and the effect of clouds on the atmospheric solar heating using the surface radiation measurements and Japan's Geostationary Meteorological Satellite 4 radiance measurements during COARE IOP.

  18. Can we measure daily tobacco consumption in remote indigenous communities? Comparing self-reported tobacco consumption with community-level estimates in an Arnhem Land study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clough, Alan R; MacLaren, David J; Robertson, Jan A; Ivers, Rowena G; Conigrave, Katherine M

    2011-03-01

    In remote Indigenous Australian communities measuring individual tobacco use can be confounded by cultural expectations, including sharing. We compared self-reported tobacco consumption with community-level estimates in Arnhem Land (Northern Territory). In a cross-sectional survey in three communities (population 2319 Indigenous residents, aged ≥16 years), 400 Indigenous residents were interviewed (206 men, 194 women). Eight community stores provided information about tobacco sold during the survey. To gauge the impact of 255 non-Indigenous residents on tobacco turnover, 10 were interviewed (five men, five women). Breath carbon monoxide levels confirmed self-reported smoking. Self-reported number of cigarettes smoked per day was compared with daily tobacco consumption per user estimated using amounts of tobacco sold during 12 months before the survey (2007-2008). 'Lighter smokers' (Indigenous study participants, 305 (76%) used tobacco; four chewed tobacco. Of 301 Indigenous smokers, 177 (58%) provided self-reported consumption information; a median of 11-11.5 cigarettes per day in men and 5.5-10 cigarettes per day in women. Men were three times (odds ratio=2.9) more likely to be 'heavier smokers'. Store turnover data indicated that Indigenous tobacco users consumed the equivalent of 9.2-13.1 cigarettes per day; very similar to self-reported levels. Sixty per cent (=6/10) of non-Indigenous residents interviewed were smokers, but with little impact on tobacco turnover overall (2-6%). Smoking levels reported by Indigenous Australians in this study, when sharing tobacco was considered, closely reflected quantities of tobacco sold in community stores. © 2010 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

  19. Estimation of the potential efficiency of a multijunction solar cell at a limit balance of photogenerated currents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mintairov, M. A., E-mail: mamint@mail.ioffe.ru; Evstropov, V. V.; Mintairov, S. A.; Shvarts, M. Z.; Timoshina, N. Kh.; Kalyuzhnyy, N. A. [Russian Academy of Sciences, Ioffe Physical-Technical Institute (Russian Federation)

    2015-05-15

    A method is proposed for estimating the potential efficiency which can be achieved in an initially unbalanced multijunction solar cell by the mutual convergence of photogenerated currents: to extract this current from a relatively narrow band-gap cell and to add it to a relatively wide-gap cell. It is already known that the properties facilitating relative convergence are inherent to such objects as bound excitons, quantum dots, donor-acceptor pairs, and others located in relatively wide-gap cells. In fact, the proposed method is reduced to the problem of obtaining such a required light current-voltage (I–V) characteristic which corresponds to the equality of all photogenerated short-circuit currents. Two methods for obtaining the required light I–V characteristic are used. The first one is selection of the spectral composition of the radiation incident on the multijunction solar cell from an illuminator. The second method is a double shift of the dark I–V characteristic: a current shift J{sub g} (common set photogenerated current) and a voltage shift (−J{sub g}R{sub s}), where R{sub s} is the series resistance. For the light and dark I–V characteristics, a general analytical expression is derived, which considers the effect of so-called luminescence coupling in multijunction solar cells. The experimental I–V characteristics are compared with the calculated ones for a three-junction InGaP/GaAs/Ge solar cell with R{sub s} = 0.019 Ω cm{sup 2} and a maximum factual efficiency of 36.9%. Its maximum potential efficiency is estimated as 41.2%.

  20. Analysis of imidacloprid residues in fruits, vegetables, cereals, fruit juices, and baby foods, and daily intake estimation in and around Lucknow, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kapoor, Upasana; Srivastava, M K; Srivastava, Ashutosh Kumar; Patel, D K; Garg, Veena; Srivastava, L P

    2013-03-01

    A total of 250 samples-including fruits, fruit juices, and baby foods (50 samples each), vegetables (70 samples), and cereals (30 samples)-were collected from Lucknow, India, and analyzed for the presence of imidacloprid residues. The QuEChERS (quick, easy, cheap, effective, rugged, and safe) method of extraction coupled with high-performance liquid chromatographic analysis were carried out, and imidacloprid residues were qualitatively confirmed by liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry. Imidacloprid was not detected in samples of fruit juices and baby foods. It was, however, detected in 38 samples of fruits, vegetables, and cereals, which is about 15.20% of the total samples. Of samples of fruits, 22% showed the presence of imidacloprid, and 2% of samples showed residues above the maximal residue limit. Although imidacloprid was detected in 24% of vegetable samples, only 5.71% showed the presence of imidacloprid above the maximal residue limit. However, 33% of cereal samples showed the presence of imidacloprid, and about 3% of samples were above the maximal residue limit. The calculated estimated daily intake ranged between 0.004 and 0.131 µg/kg body weight, and the hazard indices ranged from 0.007 to 0.218 for these food commodities. It is therefore indicated that lifetime consumption of vegetables, fruits, fruit juices, baby foods, wheat, rice, and pulses may not pose a health hazard for the population of Lucknow because the hazard indices for imidacloprid residues were below one. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

  1. Estimating solar ultraviolet irradiance (290-385 nm by means of the spectral parametric models: SPCTRAL2 and SMARTS2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Foyo-Moreno

    2000-11-01

    Full Text Available Since the discovery of the ozone depletion in Antarctic and the globally declining trend of stratospheric ozone concentration, public and scientific concern has been raised in the last decades. A very important consequence of this fact is the increased broadband and spectral UV radiation in the environment and the biological effects and heath risks that may take place in the near future. The absence of widespread measurements of this radiometric flux has lead to the development and use of alternative estimation procedures such as the parametric approaches. Parametric models compute the radiant energy using available atmospheric parameters. Some parametric models compute the global solar irradiance at surface level by addition of its direct beam and diffuse components. In the present work, we have developed a comparison between two cloudless sky parametrization schemes. Both methods provide an estimation of the solar spectral irradiance that can be integrated spectrally within the limits of interest. For this test we have used data recorded in a radiometric station located at Granada (37.180°N, 3.580°W, 660 m a.m.s.l., an inland location. The database includes hourly values of the relevant variables covering the years 1994-95. The performance of the models has been tested in relation to their predictive capability of global solar irradiance in the UV range (290–385 nm. After our study, it appears that information concerning the aerosol radiative effects is fundamental in order to obtain a good estimation. The original version of SPCTRAL2 provides estimates of the experimental values with negligible mean bias deviation. This suggests not only the appropriateness of the model but also the convenience of the aerosol features fixed in it to Granada conditions. SMARTS2 model offers increased flexibility concerning the selection of different aerosol models included in the code and provides the best results when the selected models are those

  2. Estimating solar ultraviolet irradiance (290-385 nm by means of the spectral parametric models: SPCTRAL2 and SMARTS2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Foyo-Moreno

    Full Text Available Since the discovery of the ozone depletion in Antarctic and the globally declining trend of stratospheric ozone concentration, public and scientific concern has been raised in the last decades. A very important consequence of this fact is the increased broadband and spectral UV radiation in the environment and the biological effects and heath risks that may take place in the near future. The absence of widespread measurements of this radiometric flux has lead to the development and use of alternative estimation procedures such as the parametric approaches. Parametric models compute the radiant energy using available atmospheric parameters. Some parametric models compute the global solar irradiance at surface level by addition of its direct beam and diffuse components. In the present work, we have developed a comparison between two cloudless sky parametrization schemes. Both methods provide an estimation of the solar spectral irradiance that can be integrated spectrally within the limits of interest. For this test we have used data recorded in a radiometric station located at Granada (37.180°N, 3.580°W, 660 m a.m.s.l., an inland location. The database includes hourly values of the relevant variables covering the years 1994-95. The performance of the models has been tested in relation to their predictive capability of global solar irradiance in the UV range (290–385 nm. After our study, it appears that information concerning the aerosol radiative effects is fundamental in order to obtain a good estimation. The original version of SPCTRAL2 provides estimates of the experimental values with negligible mean bias deviation. This suggests not only the appropriateness of the model but also the convenience of the aerosol features fixed in it to Granada conditions. SMARTS2 model offers increased flexibility concerning the selection of different aerosol models included in the code and provides the best results when the selected models are those

  3. Surface Net Solar Radiation Estimated from Satellite Measurements: Comparisons with Tower Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhanqing; Leighton, H. G.; Cess, Robert D.

    1993-01-01

    A parameterization that relates the reflected solar flux at the top of the atmosphere to the net solar flux at the surface in terms of only the column water vapor amount and the solar zenith angle was tested against surface observations. Net surface fluxes deduced from coincidental collocated satellite-measured radiances and from measurements from towers in Boulder during summer and near Saskatoon in winter have mean differences of about 2 W/sq m, regardless of whether the sky is clear or cloudy. Furthermore, comparisons between the net fluxes deduced from the parameterization and from surface measurements showed equally good agreement when the data were partitioned into morning and afternoon observations. This is in contrast to results from an empirical clear-sky algorithm that is unable to account adequately for the effects of clouds and that shows, at Boulder, a distinct morning to afternoon variation, which is presumably due to the predominance of different cloud types throughout the day. It is also demonstrated that the parameterization may be applied to irradiances at the top of the atmosphere that have been temporally averaged by using the temporally averaged column water vapor amount and the temporally averaged cosine of the solar zenith angle. The good agreement between the results of the parameterization and surface measurements suggests that the algorithm is a useful tool for a variety of climate studies.

  4. Estimating the Quantity of Wind and Solar Required To Displace Storage-Induced Emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hittinger, Eric; Azevedo, Inês M L

    2017-11-07

    The variable and nondispatchable nature of wind and solar generation has been driving interest in energy storage as an enabling low-carbon technology that can help spur large-scale adoption of renewables. However, prior work has shown that adding energy storage alone for energy arbitrage in electricity systems across the U.S. routinely increases system emissions. While adding wind or solar reduces electricity system emissions, the emissions effect of both renewable generation and energy storage varies by location. In this work, we apply a marginal emissions approach to determine the net system CO 2 emissions of colocated or electrically proximate wind/storage and solar/storage facilities across the U.S. and determine the amount of renewable energy required to offset the CO 2 emissions resulting from operation of new energy storage. We find that it takes between 0.03 MW (Montana) and 4 MW (Michigan) of wind and between 0.25 MW (Alabama) and 17 MW (Michigan) of solar to offset the emissions from a 25 MW/100 MWh storage device, depending on location and operational mode. Systems with a realistic combination of renewables and storage will result in net emissions reductions compared with a grid without those systems, but the anticipated reductions are lower than a renewable-only addition.

  5. Estimating the p-mode frequencies of the solar twin 18 Scorpii

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bazot, M.; Campante, T. L.; Chaplin, W. J.

    2012-01-01

    Solar twins have been a focus of attention for more than a decade, because their structure is extremely close to that of the Sun. Today, thanks to high-precision spectrometers, it is possible to use asteroseismology to probe their interiors. Our goal is to use time series obtained from the HARPS ...

  6. Full-Coverage High-Resolution Daily PM(sub 2.5) Estimation using MAIAC AOD in the Yangtze River Delta of China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Qingyang; Wang, Yujie; Chang, Howard H.; Meng, Xia; Geng, Guannan; Lyapustin, Alexei Ivanovich; Liu, Yang

    2017-01-01

    Satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) has been used to assess population exposure to fine particulate matter (PM (sub 2.5)). The emerging high-resolution satellite aerosol product, Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction(MAIAC), provides a valuable opportunity to characterize local-scale PM(sub 2.5) at 1-km resolution. However, non-random missing AOD due to cloud snow cover or high surface reflectance makes this task challenging. Previous studies filled the data gap by spatially interpolating neighboring PM(sub 2.5) measurements or predictions. This strategy ignored the effect of cloud cover on aerosol loadings and has been shown to exhibit poor performance when monitoring stations are sparse or when there is seasonal large-scale missngness. Using the Yangtze River Delta of China as an example, we present a Multiple Imputation (MI) method that combines the MAIAC high-resolution satellite retrievals with chemical transport model (CTM) simulations to fill missing AOD. A two-stage statistical model driven by gap-filled AOD, meteorology and land use information was then fitted to estimate daily ground PM(sub 2.5) concentrations in 2013 and 2014 at 1 km resolution with complete coverage in space and time. The daily MI models have an average R(exp 2) of 0.77, with an inter-quartile range of 0.71 to 0.82 across days. The overall Ml model 10-fold cross-validation R(exp 2) (root mean square error) were 0.81 (25 gm(exp 3)) and 0.73 (18 gm(exp 3)) for year 2013 and 2014, respectively. Predictions with only observational AOD or only imputed AOD showed similar accuracy.Comparing with previous gap-filling methods, our MI method presented in this study performed bette rwith higher coverage, higher accuracy, and the ability to fill missing PM(sub 2.5) predictions without ground PM(sub 2.5) measurements. This method can provide reliable PM(sub 2.5)predictions with complete coverage that can reduce biasin exposure assessment in air pollution and health studies.

  7. DOE/NASA SIMS Prototype Solar System, no. 4. Part 1: Market analysis. Part 2: Modular manufacturing cost estimate

    Science.gov (United States)

    1979-01-01

    The findings of the IIT Research Institute (IITRI) market study of the SIMS Prototype System 4, a hot water (DHW) system are documented. The feasibility of prepackaging currently available solar heating components into modular subsystems for site assembly is addressed. A documented design and installation procedure and a performance test report were prepared. The potential markets and applications for this particular system in the nonfederal market are profiled by assessing the needs and requirements of potential users and specifiers, by characterizing the nature of the market and the competitive environment, by identifying the barriers to commercial acceptance, and by estimating the size of the potential market.

  8. Asteroseismic estimate of helium abundance of a solar analog binary system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Verma, Kuldeep; Antia, H. M. [Tata Institute of Fundamental Research, Homi Bhabha Road, Mumbai 400005 (India); Faria, João P.; Monteiro, Mário J. P. F. G. [Centro de Astrofísica da Universidade do Porto, Rua das Estrelas, 4150-762 Porto (Portugal); Basu, Sarbani [Astronomy Department, Yale University, P. O. Box 208101, New Haven, CT 065208101 (United States); Mazumdar, Anwesh [Homi Bhabha Centre for Science Education, TIFR, V. N. Purav Marg, Mankhurd, Mumbai 400088 (India); Appourchaux, Thierry [Institut d' Astrophysique Spatiale, Université Paris XI-CNRS (UMR8617), Batiment 121, F-91405 Orsay Cedex (France); Chaplin, William J. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Birmingham, B15 2TT (United Kingdom); García, Rafael A. [Laboratoire AIM, CEA/DSM, CNRS, Université Paris Diderot, IRFU/SAp, Centre de Saclay, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Metcalfe, Travis S. [Stellar Astrophysics Centre, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Aarhus University, Ny Munkegade 120, DK-8000 Aarhus C (Denmark)

    2014-08-01

    16 Cyg A and B are among the brightest stars observed by Kepler. What makes these stars more interesting is that they are solar analogs. 16 Cyg A and B exhibit solar-like oscillations. In this work we use oscillation frequencies obtained using 2.5 yr of Kepler data to determine the current helium abundance of these stars. For this we use the fact that the helium ionization zone leaves a signature on the oscillation frequencies and that this signature can be calibrated to determine the helium abundance of that layer. By calibrating the signature of the helium ionization zone against models of known helium abundance, the helium abundance in the envelope of 16 Cyg A is found to lie in the range of 0.231 to 0.251 and that of 16 Cyg B lies in the range of 0.218 to 0.266.

  9. Surface net solar radiation estimated from satellite measurements - Comparisons with tower observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhanqing; Leighton, H. G.; Cess, Robert D.

    1993-01-01

    A parameterization that relates the reflected solar flux at the top of the atmosphere to the net solar flux at the surface in terms of only the column water vapor amount and the solar zenith angle was tested against surface observations. Net surface fluxes deduced from coincidental collocated satellite-measured radiances and from measurements from towers in Boulder during summer and near Saskatoon in winter have mean differences of about 2 W/sq m, regardless of whether the sky is clear or cloudy. Furthermore, comparisons between the net fluxes deduced from the parameterization and from surface measurements showed equally good agreement when the data were partitioned into morning and afternoon observations. This is in contrast to results from an empirical clear-sky algorithm that is unable to account adequately for the effects of clouds and that shows, at Boulder, a distinct morning to afternoon variation. It is also demonstrated that the parameterization may be applied to irradiances at the top of the atmosphere that have been temporally averaged. The good agreement between the results of the parameterization and surface measurements suggests that the algorithm is a useful tool for a variety of climate studies.

  10. Estimated dietary intakes of nitrates in vegetarians compared to a traditional diet in Poland and acceptable daily intakes: is there a risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitek, Marta; Anyzewska, Anna; Wawrzyniak, Agata

    2013-01-01

    Vegetarian diets, by definition, are rich in vegetables and so may have high levels of nitrates, that can elicit both positive or negative effects on the human body. Exposure to nitrates can thus be potentially higher for this population group. To estimate dietary nitrates intakes in Polish vegetarians and compare these with the Polish average. A sample of 86 vegetarians were surveyed via a questionnaire to determine nitrate intake for those adopting a vegetarian diet. Nitrate intakes for the average Pole were obtained from the Central Statistical Office. The domestic intake of nitrate, per average person, during 2000-2009, ranged from 115.5 to 133.7 mg NaNO3 with a mean of 125 mg NaNO3 of which 35.4% constituted the Acceptable Daily Intake (ADI). For vegetarians, the corresponding levels ranged from 37.3 to 2054.3 mg NaNO3 with a mean intake of 340.1 mg NaNO3 of which 95.8% represented the ADI. This was almost twice more than values obtained from calculating nitrate intakes of a typical 7-day vegetarian menu; 104.5 to 277.6 mg NaNO3, with a mean 175.9 mg NaNO3 with the 49.1% making up the ADI. The nitrate intakes in the tested vegetarians were 140 to 270% higher than ones for the average Pole, however in both cases the ADI was not exceeded. Nevertheless, the higher intake of nitrates so observed in vegetarians can be hazardous to some from this population group.

  11. Determination of total vanadium and vanadium(V) in groundwater from Mt. Etna and estimate of daily intake of vanadium(V) through drinking water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arena, Giovanni; Copat, Chiara; Dimartino, Angela; Grasso, Alfina; Fallico, Roberto; Sciacca, Salvatore; Fiore, Maria; Ferrante, Margherita

    2015-06-01

    Vanadium(V) can be found in natural waters in the form of V(IV) and V(V) species, which have different biological properties and toxicity. The purpose of this study was to determine the concentrations of total V and V(V) in groundwater from the area of Mt. Etna and to assess the estimated daily intake (EDI) of V(V) of adults and children through drinking water. Water was sampled monthly at 21 sites in 2011. Total vanadium was determined by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) and speciation by ion chromatography-ICP-MS (IC-ICP-MS). The concentration of V(V) species ranged from 62.8 to 98.9% of total V, with significantly higher concentrations in samples from the S/SW slope of Mt. Etna. The annual mean concentrations of total V exceeded the Italian legal limit of 140 μg/L at four sites on the S/SW slope. In the absence of thresholds for V(V) intake, only the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has calculated a reference dose. Children's EDI of V(V) at the sites with the higher V concentrations exceeded EPA thresholds (9 μg/kg/day). In particular, we found in Camporotondo, Mascalucia, Ragalna and San Pietro Clarenza sites children's EDIs of 11, 9.3, 11 and 9.9, respectively. The EDI of V(V) was significantly higher than the literature range (0.09-0.34 μg/kg/day).

  12. Methods to Estimate Solar Radiation Dosimetry in Coral Reefs Using Remote Sensed, Modeled, and in Situ Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solar irradiance has been increasingly recognized as an important determinant of bleaching in coral reefs, but measurements of solar radiation exposure within coral reefs have been relatively limited. Solar irradiance and diffuse down welling attenuation coefficients (Kd, m-1) we...

  13. Method to allow the estimation of heat transfer coefficients in solar stills; Metodo para determinar coeficientes locales de transferencia de calor en destiladores solares

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rubio Cerda, Eduardo; Porta Gandara, Miguel A [CIBNOR, Mexico D.F (Mexico); Fernandez Zayas, Jose Luis [UNAM Mexico, D.F. (Mexico)

    2000-07-01

    This work reports an experimental method that allows to estimate the heat transfer coefficients in the neighborhood of walls or flat plates subject to convective transport phenomena. This method can be applied to a great variety of thermal systems since it is based on the knowledge of the border condition for the temperature at the surface of the plate, and the temperature profile that characterize the dimensionless coefficient of heat transfer in the fluid, according to its definition given by the Nusselt number. The approach of this work are the foundations of the method and the system that has been developed to apply it, that incorporates automatic acquisition equipment for continuos monitoring of the information and elements to control the parameters of interest. In addition, the experimental cavities on which the method will be evaluated are discussed, considering two different scales, as well as experiments in cavities filled with air, and with a mixture of air and steam water, as is the case for solar distillation. [Spanish] En este trabajo se presenta un metodo que permite determinar de manera experimental coeficientes de transferencia de calor por conveccion. Este metodo puede ser aplicado a una gran variedad de sistemas termicos ya que se fundamenta en el conocimiento de la condicion de frontera para la temperatura en la superficie de la placa, y del perfil de temperaturas que caracteriza el coeficiente adimensional de transferencia de calor en el fluido, de acuerdo a la definicion de este, dada por el numero de Nusselt. El trabajo que aqui se reporta esta enfocado a la fundamentacion del metodo y al equipamiento que se ha desarrollado para instrumentarlo, que incorpora equipos automaticos de adquisicion continua de informacion y elementos de control para los parametros de interes. Se presentan ademas, las cavidades experimentales sobre las que sera evaluado el metodo, que considera dos escalas diferentes, asi como experimentos en cavidades llenas de aire

  14. Comparison of the Gen Expression Programming, Nonlinear Time Series and Artificial Neural Network in Estimating the River Daily Flow (Case Study: The Karun River

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Zamani

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Today, the daily flow forecasting of rivers is an important issue in hydrology and water resources and thus can be used the results of daily river flow modeling in water resources management, droughts and floods monitoring. In this study, due to the importance of this issue, using nonlinear time series models and artificial intelligence (Artificial Neural Network and Gen Expression Programming, the daily flow modeling has been at the time interval (1981-2012 in the Armand hydrometric station on the Karun River. Armand station upstream basin is one of the most basins in the North Karun basin and includes four sub basins (Vanak, Middle Karun, Beheshtabad and Kohrang.The results of this study shown that artificial intelligence models have superior than nonlinear time series in flow daily simulation in the Karun River. As well as, modeling and comparison of artificial intelligence models showed that the Gen Expression Programming have evaluation criteria better than artificial neural network.

  15. Estimation of incident solar radiation on the roof of the cultural and sports university centre of the Foundation University Los Libertadores

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiménez, S A; Carrillo, V M; Rátiva, L C

    2016-01-01

    This document shows the estimate of the total solar irradiance incident for the set of solar collectors to be located on the roof of cultural and sports university centre (CSUC) of the Foundation University Los Libertadores (FULL) in Bogotá, Colombia, and they will be part of the climate control system of the pool built inside. The calculation was based on experimental data of global solar radiation on the horizontal surface on March, July, October, November and December, through the three most commonly models used to determine the total solar radiation on tilted surfaces: isotropic sky, HDKR and Perez. The results show differences of less than 5% between the values calculated by the three models for December, the month with lower irradiance. For this month, reductions up to 15% and 19% were observed in the estimated irradiance, relative to those obtained on a horizontal surface on a surface under ideal orientation and inclination, respectively. (paper)

  16. Estimation of incident solar radiation on the roof of the cultural and sports university centre of the Foundation University Los Libertadores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiménez, S. A.; Carrillo, V. M.; Rátiva, L. C.

    2016-02-01

    This document shows the estimate of the total solar irradiance incident for the set of solar collectors to be located on the roof of cultural and sports university centre (CSUC) of the Foundation University Los Libertadores (FULL) in Bogotá, Colombia, and they will be part of the climate control system of the pool built inside. The calculation was based on experimental data of global solar radiation on the horizontal surface on March, July, October, November and December, through the three most commonly models used to determine the total solar radiation on tilted surfaces: isotropic sky, HDKR and Perez. The results show differences of less than 5% between the values calculated by the three models for December, the month with lower irradiance. For this month, reductions up to 15% and 19% were observed in the estimated irradiance, relative to those obtained on a horizontal surface on a surface under ideal orientation and inclination, respectively.

  17. Design and Fabrication of Solar Updraft Tower and Estimation of Power Generation; Initially Focused on Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayub, F.; Akhand, S.; Khan, A. S.; Saklayen, G.

    2018-05-01

    In our studies we focused on area of sourcing, converting and delivering sustainable energy, concentrating at the potential role of solar power. Power generation through a solar updraft tower (SUT) has been a promising approach for sustainable generation of renewable energy. Developing nations are faced with many challenges. Conventional sources are insufficient to meet the increasing demand of a developing, industrious nation (e.g. Bangladesh). Our project aims in reducing electricity crisis and forming a solution for our country, Bangladesh. The electricity generated can be supplied to the national grid. This will mean reduced cost for the government in the long run and also allow the government to reduce its dependency on costly and unsustainable fossil fuel. This cost reduction benefit can be passed on to the public as reduced energy cost or preferably through nationwide energy infrastructure development. This technology will not only help with the energy concern of Bangladesh but also will help to improve the situations of other developing countries alike Bangladesh. All in all implementing this technology will pave the way towards a better world and form a part of an integrated ecosystem of sustainable energy technology.

  18. Estimation and optimization of thermal performance of evacuated tube solar collector system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dikmen, Erkan; Ayaz, Mahir; Ezen, H. Hüseyin; Küçüksille, Ecir U.; Şahin, Arzu Şencan

    2014-05-01

    In this study, artificial neural networks (ANNs) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy (ANFIS) in order to predict the thermal performance of evacuated tube solar collector system have been used. The experimental data for the training and testing of the networks were used. The results of ANN are compared with ANFIS in which the same data sets are used. The R2-value for the thermal performance values of collector is 0.811914 which can be considered as satisfactory. The results obtained when unknown data were presented to the networks are satisfactory and indicate that the proposed method can successfully be used for the prediction of the thermal performance of evacuated tube solar collectors. In addition, new formulations obtained from ANN are presented for the calculation of the thermal performance. The advantages of this approaches compared to the conventional methods are speed, simplicity, and the capacity of the network to learn from examples. In addition, genetic algorithm (GA) was used to maximize the thermal performance of the system. The optimum working conditions of the system were determined by the GA.

  19. Estimation of Solar Radiation, Management of Energy Flow and Development of a New Approach for the Optimisation of the Sizing of Photovoltaic System; Application to Algeria

    OpenAIRE

    Bouzid, Zakaria; Ghellai, Nassera; Benmedjahed, Miloud

    2016-01-01

    The design of photovoltaic systems is an important step, its optimization, as well as the optimization of different parameters, is a crucial operation. In our work, after estimating hourly solar radiation, we developed energy flow models for photovoltaic power based on the concept of solar usability. Then, we used a genetic algorithm to develop our own computer program (with Python) to find the best configuration (total surface of the panels, PV efficiency and total capacity of batteries) amo...

  20. Effectiveness estimation of camouflage measures with solar radiation and longwave radiation considered

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jung, J.S. [LG Electronics Corporation (Korea); Kauh, S.K. [Seoul National University, Seoul (Korea); Yoo, H.S. [Soongsil University, Seoul (Korea)

    1998-11-01

    Camouflage measures in military purpose utilizes the apparent temperature difference between the target and background, so it is essential to develop thermal analysis program for apparent temperature predictions and to apply some camouflage measures to real military targets for camouflage purpose. In this study, a thermal analysis program including conduction, convection and radiation is developed and the validity of radiation heat transfer terms is examined. The results show that longwave radiation along with solar radiation should be included in order to predict apparent temperature as well as physical temperature exactly. Longwave emissivity variation as an effective camouflage measures is applied to a real M2 tank. From the simulation results, it is found that an effective surface treatment, such as painting of a less emissive material or camouflage, clothing, may provide a temperature similarity or a spatial similarity, resulting in an effective camouflage. (author). 12 refs., 6 figs., 1 tab.

  1. A new hybrid bee pollinator flower pollination algorithm for solar PV parameter estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ram, J. Prasanth; Babu, T. Sudhakar; Dragicevic, Tomislav; Rajasekar, N.

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • A new Bee Pollinator Flower Pollination Algorithm (BPFPA) is proposed for Solar PV Parameter extraction. • Standard RTC France data is used for the experimentation of BPFPA algorithm. • Four different PV modules are successfully tested via double diode model. • The BPFPA method is highly convincing in accuracy to convergence at faster rate. • The proposed BPFPA provides the best performance among the other recent techniques. - Abstract: The inaccurate I-V curve generation in solar PV modeling introduces less efficiency and on the other hand, accurate simulation of PV characteristics becomes a mandatory obligation before experimental validation. Although many optimization methods in literature have attempted to extract accurate PV parameters, all of these methods do not guarantee their convergence to the global optimum. Hence, the authors of this paper have proposed a new hybrid Bee pollinator Flower Pollination Algorithm (BPFPA) for the PV parameter extraction problem. The PV parameters for both single diode and double diode are extracted and tested under different environmental conditions. For brevity, the I_0_1, I_0_2, I_p_v for double diode and I_0_,I_p_v for single diode models are calculated analytically where the remaining parameters ‘R_s, R_p, a_1, a_2’ are optimized using BPFPA method. It is found that, the proposed Bee Pollinator method has all the scope to create exploration and exploitation in the control variable to yield a less RMSE value even under lower irradiated conditions. Further for performance validation, the parameters arrived via BPFPA method is compared with Genetic Algorithm (GA), Pattern Search (PS), Harmony Search (HS), Flower Pollination Algorithm (FPA) and Artificial Bee Swarm Optimization (ABSO). In addition, various outcomes of PV modeling and different parameters influencing the accurate PV modeling are critically analyzed.

  2. A simple approach to estimate daily loads of total, refractory, and labile organic carbon from their seasonal loads in a watershed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouyang, Ying; Grace, Johnny M; Zipperer, Wayne C; Hatten, Jeff; Dewey, Janet

    2018-05-22

    Loads of naturally occurring total organic carbons (TOC), refractory organic carbon (ROC), and labile organic carbon (LOC) in streams control the availability of nutrients and the solubility and toxicity of contaminants and affect biological activities through absorption of light and complex metals with production of carcinogenic compounds. Although computer models have become increasingly popular in understanding and management of TOC, ROC, and LOC loads in streams, the usefulness of these models hinges on the availability of daily data for model calibration and validation. Unfortunately, these daily data are usually insufficient and/or unavailable for most watersheds due to a variety of reasons, such as budget and time constraints. A simple approach was developed here to calculate daily loads of TOC, ROC, and LOC in streams based on their seasonal loads. We concluded that the predictions from our approach adequately match field measurements based on statistical comparisons between model calculations and field measurements. Our approach demonstrates that an increase in stream discharge results in increased stream TOC, ROC, and LOC concentrations and loads, although high peak discharge did not necessarily result in high peaks of TOC, ROC, and LOC concentrations and loads. The approach developed herein is a useful tool to convert seasonal loads of TOC, ROC, and LOC into daily loads in the absence of measured daily load data.

  3. Signal noise ratio analysis and on-orbit performance estimation of a solar occultation Fourier transform spectrometer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Bicen; Xu, Pengmei; Hou, Lizhou; Wang, Caiqin

    2017-10-01

    Taking the advantages of high spectral resolution, high sensitivity and wide spectral coverage, space borne Fourier transform infrared spectrometer (FTS) plays more and more important role in atmospheric composition sounding. The combination of solar occultation and FTS technique improves the sensitivity of instrument. To achieve both high spectral resolution and high signal to noise ratio (SNR), reasonable allocation and optimization for instrument parameters are the foundation and difficulty. The solar occultation FTS (SOFTS) is a high spectral resolution (0.03 cm-1) FTS operating from 2.4 to 13.3 μm (750-4100cm-1), which will determine the altitude profile information of typical 10-100km for temperature, pressure, and the volume mixing ratios for several dozens of atmospheric compositions. As key performance of SOFTS, SNR is crucially important to high accuracy retrieval of atmospheric composition, which is required to be no less than 100:1 at the radiance of 5800K blackbody. Based on the study of various parameters and its interacting principle, according to interference theory and operation principle of time modulated FTS, a simulation model of FTS SNR has been built, which considers satellite orbit, spectral radiometric features of sun and atmospheric composition, optical system, interferometer and its control system, measurement duration, detector sensitivity, noise of detector and electronic system and so on. According to the testing results of SNR at the illuminating of 1000 blackbody, the on-orbit SNR performance of SOFTS is estimated, which can meet the mission requirement.

  4. Solar thermal technology development: Estimated market size and energy cost savings. Volume 2: Assumptions, methodology and results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gates, W. R.

    1983-02-01

    Estimated future energy cost savings associated with the development of cost-competitive solar thermal technologies (STT) are discussed. Analysis is restricted to STT in electric applications for 16 high-insolation/high-energy-price states. Three fuel price scenarios and three 1990 STT system costs are considered, reflecting uncertainty over future fuel prices and STT cost projections. Solar thermal technology research and development (R&D) is found to be unacceptably risky for private industry in the absence of federal support. Energy cost savings were projected to range from $0 to $10 billion (1990 values in 1981 dollars), depending on the system cost and fuel price scenario. Normal R&D investment risks are accentuated because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel can artificially manipulate oil prices and undercut growth of alternative energy sources. Federal participation in STT R&D to help capture the potential benefits of developing cost-competitive STT was found to be in the national interest. Analysis is also provided regarding two federal incentives currently in use: The Federal Business Energy Tax Credit and direct R&D funding.

  5. Solar thermal technology development: Estimated market size and energy cost savings. Volume 2: Assumptions, methodology and results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gates, W. R.

    1983-01-01

    Estimated future energy cost savings associated with the development of cost-competitive solar thermal technologies (STT) are discussed. Analysis is restricted to STT in electric applications for 16 high-insolation/high-energy-price states. Three fuel price scenarios and three 1990 STT system costs are considered, reflecting uncertainty over future fuel prices and STT cost projections. Solar thermal technology research and development (R&D) is found to be unacceptably risky for private industry in the absence of federal support. Energy cost savings were projected to range from $0 to $10 billion (1990 values in 1981 dollars), depending on the system cost and fuel price scenario. Normal R&D investment risks are accentuated because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel can artificially manipulate oil prices and undercut growth of alternative energy sources. Federal participation in STT R&D to help capture the potential benefits of developing cost-competitive STT was found to be in the national interest. Analysis is also provided regarding two federal incentives currently in use: The Federal Business Energy Tax Credit and direct R&D funding.

  6. An evaluation of a solar radiation/delta-T method for estimating Pasquill-Gifford (P-G) stability categories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coulter, C.T. [Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States)

    1994-12-31

    There has been a continuing need to develop robust methods for determining Pasquill-Gifford (P-G) stability categories using solely on-site meteorological instrumentation. The Revised EPA Guideline on Air Quality Models recommends several such methods. Experience with these suggests that, since they rely on turbulence measurements, they can be unduly influenced by local effects such as mesoscale circulation (e.g., upslope/downslope flows, land/sea breeze), wakes from tree barriers or buildings, etc. to such an extent as to diminish their practical usefulness. In the following discussion, a methodology is proposed for estimating P-G stability categories that employs on-site meteorological measurements (10m wind speed coupled with solar radiation during the day and temperature difference, {Delta}T, at night) in lieu of cloud cover and ceiling height observations. The proposed method was adapted from Bowen and is herein referred to as the solar radiation/delta-T (SRDT) method. To evaluate the method, an attempt was made to acquire data bases from diverse geographical areas. Data bases with {Delta}T measurements from 2-10m above ground level were of primary interest for characterizing the boundary layer; other intervals were considered for evaluation, as available. To document the consequence of implementing the method in practical applications, an analysis was needed of the effect on design concentration ratios.

  7. Evaluation of two MM5-PBL parameterization for solar radiation and temperature estimation in the South-Eastern area of the Iberian Peninsula

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruiz-Arias, J.A.; Pozo-Vasquez, D.; Sanchez-Sanchez, N.; Hayas-Barru, A.; Tovar-Pescador, J.; Montavez, J.P.

    2008-01-01

    We study the relative performance of two different MM5-PBL parametrizations (Blackadar and MRF) simulating hourly values of solar irradiance and temperature in the south-eastern part of the Iberian Peninsula. The evaluation was carried out throughout the different season of the year 2005 and for three different sky conditions: clear-sky, broken-clouds and overcast conditions. Two integrations, one per PBL parameterization, were carried out for every sky condition and season of the year and results were compared with observational data. Overall, the MM5 model, both using the Blackadar or MRF PBL parameterization, revealed to be a valid tool to estimate hourly values of solar radiation and temperature over the study area. The influence of the PBL parameterization on the model estimates was found to be more important for the solar radiation than for the temperature and highly dependent on the season and sky conditions. Particularly, a detailed analysis revealed that, during broken-clouds conditions, the ability of the model to reproduce hourly changes in the solar radiation strongly depends upon the selected PBL parameterization. Additionally, it was found that solar radiation RMSE values are about one order of magnitude higher during broken-clouds and overcast conditions compared to clear-sky conditions. For the temperature, the two PBL parameterizations provide very similar estimates. Only under overcast conditions and during the autumn, the MRF provides significantly better estimates.

  8. Estimating Hourly Beam and Diffuse Solar Radiation in an Alpine Valley: A Critical Assessment of Decomposition Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lavinia Laiti

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Accurate solar radiation estimates in Alpine areas represent a challenging task, because of the strong variability arising from orographic effects and mountain weather phenomena. These factors, together with the scarcity of observations in elevated areas, often cause large modelling uncertainties. In the present paper, estimates of hourly mean diffuse fraction values from global radiation data, provided by a number (13 of decomposition models (chosen among the most widely tested in the literature, are evaluated and compared with observations collected near the city of Bolzano, in the Adige Valley (Italian Alps. In addition, the physical factors influencing diffuse fraction values in such a complex orographic context are explored. The average accuracy of the models were found to be around 27% and 14% for diffuse and beam radiation respectively, the largest errors being observed under clear sky and partly cloudy conditions, respectively. The best performances were provided by the more complex models, i.e., those including a predictor specifically explaining the radiation components’ variability associated with scattered clouds. Yet, these models return non-negligible biases. In contrast, the local calibration of a single-equation logistical model with five predictors allows perfectly unbiased estimates, as accurate as those of the best-performing models (20% and 12% for diffuse and beam radiation, respectively, but at much smaller computational costs.

  9. Study of solar radiation prediction and modeling of relationships between solar radiation and meteorological variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Huaiwei; Zhao, Na; Zeng, Xiaofan; Yan, Dong

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We investigate relationships between solar radiation and meteorological variables. • A strong relationship exists between solar radiation and sunshine duration. • Daily global radiation can be estimated accurately with ARMAX–GARCH models. • MGARCH model was applied to investigate time-varying relationships. - Abstract: The traditional approaches that employ the correlations between solar radiation and other measured meteorological variables are commonly utilized in studies. It is important to investigate the time-varying relationships between meteorological variables and solar radiation to determine which variables have the strongest correlations with solar radiation. In this study, the nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous variable–generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARMAX–GARCH) and multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) time-series approaches were applied to investigate the associations between solar radiation and several meteorological variables. For these investigations, the long-term daily global solar radiation series measured at three stations from January 1, 2004 until December 31, 2007 were used in this study. Stronger relationships were observed to exist between global solar radiation and sunshine duration than between solar radiation and temperature difference. The results show that 82–88% of the temporal variations of the global solar radiation were captured by the sunshine-duration-based ARMAX–GARCH models and 55–68% of daily variations were captured by the temperature-difference-based ARMAX–GARCH models. The advantages of the ARMAX–GARCH models were also confirmed by comparison of Auto-Regressive and Moving Average (ARMA) and neutral network (ANN) models in the estimation of daily global solar radiation. The strong heteroscedastic persistency of the global solar radiation series was revealed by the AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and Generalized Auto

  10. Theoretical, observational, and isotopic estimates of the lifetime of the solar nebula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Podosek, Frank A.; Cassen, Patrick

    1994-01-01

    There are a variety of isotopic data for meteorites which suggest that the protostellar nebula existed and was involved in making planetary materials for some 10(exp 7) yr or more. Many cosmochemists, however, advocate alternative interpretations of such data in order to comply with a perceived constraint, from theoretical considerations, that the nebula existed only for a much shorter time, usually stated as less than or equal to 10(exp 6) yr. In this paper, we review evidence relevant to solar nebula duration which is available through three different disciplines: theoretical modeling of star formation, isotopic data from meteorites, and astronomical observations of T Tauri stars. Theoretical models based on observations of present star-forming regions indicate that stars like the Sun form by dynamical gravitational collapse of dense cores of cold molcular clouds in the interstellar clouds in the interstellar medium. The collapse to a star and disk occurs rapidly, on a time scale of the order 10(exp 5) yr. Disks evolve by dissipating energy while redistributing angular momentum, but it is difficult to predict the rate of evolution, particularly for low mass (compared to the star) disks which nonetheless still contain enough material to account for the observed planetary system. There is no compelling evidence, from available theories of disk structure and evolution, that the solar nebula must have evolved rapidly and could not have persisted for more than 1 Ma. In considering chronoloically relevant isotopic data for meteorites, we focus on three methodologies: absolute ages by U-Pb/Pb-Pb, and relative ages by short-lived radionuclides (especially Al-26) and by evolution of Sr-87/Sr-86. Two kinds of meteoritic materials-refractory inclusions such as CAIs and differential meteorites (eucrites and augrites) -- appear to have experienced potentially dateable nebular events. In both cases, the most straightforward interpretations of the available data indicate

  11. North error estimation based on solar