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Sample records for epidemic infectious gastrointestinal

  1. Impact of the infectious period on epidemics

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    Wilkinson, Robert R.; Sharkey, Kieran J.

    2018-05-01

    The duration of the infectious period is a crucial determinant of the ability of an infectious disease to spread. We consider an epidemic model that is network based and non-Markovian, containing classic Kermack-McKendrick, pairwise, message passing, and spatial models as special cases. For this model, we prove a monotonic relationship between the variability of the infectious period (with fixed mean) and the probability that the infection will reach any given subset of the population by any given time. For certain families of distributions, this result implies that epidemic severity is decreasing with respect to the variance of the infectious period. The striking importance of this relationship is demonstrated numerically. We then prove, with a fixed basic reproductive ratio (R0), a monotonic relationship between the variability of the posterior transmission probability (which is a function of the infectious period) and the probability that the infection will reach any given subset of the population by any given time. Thus again, even when R0 is fixed, variability of the infectious period tends to dampen the epidemic. Numerical results illustrate this but indicate the relationship is weaker. We then show how our results apply to message passing, pairwise, and Kermack-McKendrick epidemic models, even when they are not exactly consistent with the stochastic dynamics. For Poissonian contact processes, and arbitrarily distributed infectious periods, we demonstrate how systems of delay differential equations and ordinary differential equations can provide upper and lower bounds, respectively, for the probability that any given individual has been infected by any given time.

  2. Epidemic infectious gastrointestinal illness aboard U.S. Navy ships deployed to the Middle East during peacetime operations – 2000–2001

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    Bresee Joseph S

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Infectious gastrointestinal illness (IGI outbreaks have been reported in U.S. Navy ships and could potentially have an adverse mission impact. Studies to date have been anecdotal. Methods We conducted a retrospective analysis of weekly reported disease and non-battle injury health data collected in 2000 – 2001 from 44 U.S. Navy ships while sailing in the 5th Fleet (Persian Gulf and nearby seas. Results During this period, 11 possible IGI outbreaks were identified. Overall, we found 3.3 outbreaks per 100 ship-weeks, a mean outbreak duration of 4.4 weeks, and a mean cumulative ship population attack rate of 3.6%. Morbidity, represented by days lost due to personnel being placed on sick-in-quarters status, was higher during outbreak weeks compared to non-outbreak weeks (p = 0.002. No clear seasonal distribution was identified. Conclusion Explosive outbreaks due to viruses and bacteria with the potential of incapacitating large proportions of the crew raise serious concerns of mission impact and military readiness.

  3. Predicting and controlling infectious disease epidemics using temporal networks

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    Masuda, Naoki; Holme, Petter

    2013-01-01

    Infectious diseases can be considered to spread over social networks of people or animals. Mainly owing to the development of data recording and analysis techniques, an increasing amount of social contact data with time stamps has been collected in the last decade. Such temporal data capture the dynamics of social networks on a timescale relevant to epidemic spreading and can potentially lead to better ways to analyze, forecast, and prevent epidemics. However, they also call for extended anal...

  4. Predicting and controlling infectious disease epidemics using temporal networks.

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    Masuda, Naoki; Holme, Petter

    2013-01-01

    Infectious diseases can be considered to spread over social networks of people or animals. Mainly owing to the development of data recording and analysis techniques, an increasing amount of social contact data with time stamps has been collected in the last decade. Such temporal data capture the dynamics of social networks on a timescale relevant to epidemic spreading and can potentially lead to better ways to analyze, forecast, and prevent epidemics. However, they also call for extended analysis tools for network epidemiology, which has, to date, mostly viewed networks as static entities. We review recent results of network epidemiology for such temporal network data and discuss future developments.

  5. Protection motivation theory and social distancing behaviour in response to a simulated infectious disease epidemic.

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    Williams, Lynn; Rasmussen, Susan; Kleczkowski, Adam; Maharaj, Savi; Cairns, Nicole

    2015-01-01

    Epidemics of respiratory infectious disease remain one of the most serious health risks facing the population. Non-pharmaceutical interventions (e.g. hand-washing or wearing face masks) can have a significant impact on the course of an infectious disease epidemic. The current study investigated whether protection motivation theory (PMT) is a useful framework for understanding social distancing behaviour (i.e. the tendency to reduce social contacts) in response to a simulated infectious disease epidemic. There were 230 participants (109 males, 121 females, mean age 32.4 years) from the general population who completed self-report measures assessing the components of PMT. In addition, participants completed a computer game which simulated an infectious disease epidemic in order to provide a measure of social distancing behaviour. The regression analyses revealed that none of the PMT variables were significant predictors of social distancing behaviour during the simulation task. However, fear (β = .218, p < .001), response efficacy (β = .175, p < .01) and self-efficacy (β = .251, p < .001) were all significant predictors of intention to engage in social distancing behaviour. Overall, the PMT variables (and demographic factors) explain 21.2% of the variance in intention. The findings demonstrated that PMT was a useful framework for understanding intention to engage in social distancing behaviour, but not actual behaviour during the simulated epidemic. These findings may reflect an intention-behaviour gap in relation to social distancing behaviour.

  6. The Incidence and gastrointestinal infectious risk of functional gastrointestinal disorders in a healthy US adult population.

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    Porter, Chad K; Gormley, Robert; Tribble, David R; Cash, Brooks D; Riddle, Mark S

    2011-01-01

    Functional gastrointestinal disorders (FGDs) are recognized sequelae of infectious gastroenteritis (IGE). Within the active duty military population, a group with known high IGE rates, the population-based incidence, risk factors, and attributable burden of care referable to FGD after IGE are poorly defined. Using electronic medical encounter data (1999-2007) on active duty US military, a matched, case-control study describing the epidemiology and risk determinants of FGD (irritable bowel syndrome (IBS), functional constipation (FC), functional diarrhea (FD), dyspepsia (D)) was conducted. Incidence rates and duration of FGD-related medical care were estimated, and conditional logistic regression was utilized to evaluate FGD risk after IGE. A total of 31,866 cases of FGD identified were distributed as follows: FC 55% (n=17,538), D 21.2% (n=6,750), FD 2.1% (n=674), IBS 28.5% (n=9,091). Previous IGE episodes were distributed as follows: specific bacterial pathogen (n=65, 1.2%), bacterial, with no pathogen specified (n=2155, 38.9%), protozoal (n=38, 0.7%), viral (n=3431, 61.9%). A significant association between IGE and all FGD (odds ratio (OR) 2.64; Phigh risk for IGE. When considering effective countermeasures and mitigation strategies, attention directed toward prevention as well as the acute and chronic sequelae of these infections is needed.

  7. Real time bayesian estimation of the epidemic potential of emerging infectious diseases.

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    Luís M A Bettencourt

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Fast changes in human demographics worldwide, coupled with increased mobility, and modified land uses make the threat of emerging infectious diseases increasingly important. Currently there is worldwide alert for H5N1 avian influenza becoming as transmissible in humans as seasonal influenza, and potentially causing a pandemic of unprecedented proportions. Here we show how epidemiological surveillance data for emerging infectious diseases can be interpreted in real time to assess changes in transmissibility with quantified uncertainty, and to perform running time predictions of new cases and guide logistics allocations. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We develop an extension of standard epidemiological models, appropriate for emerging infectious diseases, that describes the probabilistic progression of case numbers due to the concurrent effects of (incipient human transmission and multiple introductions from a reservoir. The model is cast in terms of surveillance observables and immediately suggests a simple graphical estimation procedure for the effective reproductive number R (mean number of cases generated by an infectious individual of standard epidemics. For emerging infectious diseases, which typically show large relative case number fluctuations over time, we develop a bayesian scheme for real time estimation of the probability distribution of the effective reproduction number and show how to use such inferences to formulate significance tests on future epidemiological observations. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Violations of these significance tests define statistical anomalies that may signal changes in the epidemiology of emerging diseases and should trigger further field investigation. We apply the methodology to case data from World Health Organization reports to place bounds on the current transmissibility of H5N1 influenza in humans and establish a statistical basis for monitoring its evolution in real time.

  8. A stochastic SIRS epidemic model with infectious force under intervention strategies

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    Cai, Yongli; Kang, Yun; Banerjee, Malay; Wang, Weiming

    2015-12-01

    In this paper, we extend a classical SIRS epidemic model with the infectious forces under intervention strategies from a deterministic framework to a stochastic differential equation (SDE) one through introducing random fluctuations. The value of our study lies in two aspects. Mathematically, by using the Markov semigroups theory, we prove that the reproduction number R0S can be used to govern the stochastic dynamics of SDE model. If R0S 1, under mild extra conditions, it has an endemic stationary distribution which leads to the stochastical persistence of the disease. Epidemiologically, we find that random fluctuations can suppress disease outbreak, which can provide us some useful control strategies to regulate disease dynamics.

  9. The spray-drying process is sufficient to inactivate infectious porcine epidemic diarrhea virus in plasma.

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    Gerber, Priscilla F; Xiao, Chao-Ting; Chen, Qi; Zhang, Jianqiang; Halbur, Patrick G; Opriessnig, Tanja

    2014-11-07

    Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) is considered an emergent pathogen associated with high economic losses in many pig rearing areas. Recently it has been suggested that PEDV could be transmitted to naïve pig populations through inclusion of spray-dried porcine plasma (SDPP) into the nursery diet which led to a ban of SDPP in several areas in North America and Europe. To determine the effect of spray-drying on PEDV infectivity, 3-week-old pigs were intragastrically inoculated with (1) raw porcine plasma spiked with PEDV (RAW-PEDV-CONTROL), (2) porcine plasma spiked with PEDV and then spray dried (SD-PEDV-CONTROL), (3) raw plasma from PEDV infected pigs (RAW-SICK), (4) spray-dried plasma from PEDV infected pigs (SD-SICK), or (5) spray-dried plasma from PEDV negative pigs (SD-NEG-CONTROL). For the spray-drying process, a tabletop spray-dryer with industry-like settings for inlet and outlet temperatures was used. In the RAW-PEDV-CONTROL group, PEDV RNA was present in feces at day post infection (dpi) 3 and the pigs seroconverted by dpi 14. In contrast, PEDV RNA in feces was not detected in any of the pigs in the other groups including the SD-PEDV-CONTROL group and none of the pigs had seroconverted by termination of the project at dpi 28. This work provides direct evidence that the experimental spray-drying process used in this study was effective in inactivating infectious PEDV in the plasma. Additionally, plasma collected from PEDV infected pigs at peak disease did not contain infectious PEDV. These findings suggest that the risk for PEDV transmission through commercially produced SDPP is minimal. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Descriptive epidemiology of infectious gastrointestinal illnesses in Sydney, Australia, 2007-2010.

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    Fletcher, Stephanie; Sibbritt, David; Stark, Damien; Harkness, John; Rawlinson, William; Andresen, David; Van Hal, Sebastian; Merif, Juan; Ellis, John

    2015-01-01

    There is a lack of information about the prevalence of gastrointestinal illnesses in Australia. Current disease surveillance systems capture only a few pathogens. The aim of this study is to describe the epidemiology of infectious gastrointestinal illnesses in Sydney, Australia. A retrospective cross-sectional study of patients with gastrointestinal symptoms who visited tertiary public hospitals in Sydney was conducted between 2007 and 2010. Patients with diarrhoea or loose stools with an enteric pathogen detected were identified. Demographic, clinical and potential risk factor data were collected from their medical records. Measures of association, descriptive and inferential statistics were analysed. In total, 1722 patients were included in this study. Campylobacter (22.0%) and Clostridium difficile (19.2%) were the most frequently detected pathogens. Stratified analysis showed that rotavirus (22.4%), norovirus (20.7%) and adenovirus (18.1%) mainly affected children under 5 years; older children (5-12 years) were frequently infected with Campylobacter spp. (29.8%) and non-typhoid Salmonella spp. (24.4%); infections with C. difficile increased with age.Campylobacter and non-typhoid Salmonella spp. showed increased incidence in summer months (December to February), while rotavirus infections peaked in the cooler months (June to November). This study revealed that gastrointestinal illness remains a major public health issue in Sydney. Improvement of current disease surveillance and prevention and control measures are required. This study emphasizes the importance of laboratory diagnosis of enteric infections and the need for better clinical data collection to improve management of disease risk factors in the community.

  11. Descriptive epidemiology of infectious gastrointestinal illnesses in Sydney, Australia, 2007–2010

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    Stephanie Fletcher

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Objective: There is a lack of information about the prevalence of gastrointestinal illnesses in Australia. Current disease surveillance systems capture only a few pathogens. The aim of this study is to describe the epidemiology of infectious gastrointestinal illnesses in Sydney, Australia. Methods: A retrospective cross-sectional study of patients with gastrointestinal symptoms who visited tertiary public hospitals in Sydney was conducted between 2007 and 2010. Patients with diarrhoea or loose stools with an enteric pathogen detected were identified. Demographic, clinical and potential risk factor data were collected from their medical records. Measures of association, descriptive and inferential statistics were analysed. Results: In total, 1722 patients were included in this study. Campylobacter (22.0% and Clostridium difficile (19.2% were the most frequently detected pathogens. Stratified analysis showed that rotavirus (22.4%, norovirus (20.7% and adenovirus (18.1% mainly affected children under 5 years; older children (5–12 years were frequently infected with Campylobacter spp. (29.8% and non-typhoid Salmonella spp. (24.4%; infections with C. difficile increased with age. Campylobacter and non-typhoid Salmonella spp. showed increased incidence in summer months (December to February, while rotavirus infections peaked in the cooler months (June to November. Discussion: This study revealed that gastrointestinal illness remains a major public health issue in Sydney. Improvement of current disease surveillance and prevention and control measures are required. This study emphasizes the importance of laboratory diagnosis of enteric infections and the need for better clinical data collection to improve management of disease risk factors in the community.

  12. Infectious diseases epidemic threats and mass gatherings: Refocusing global attention on the continuing spread of the Middle East Respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV)

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    Zumla, A. (Alimuddin); Alagaili, A.N. (Abdulaziz N.); Cotten, M. (Matthew); Azhar, E.I. (Esam I.)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractMedia and World Health Organization (WHO) attention on Zika virus transmission at the 2016 Rio Olympic Games and the 2015 Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa diverted the attention of global public health authorities from other lethal infectious diseases with epidemic potential. Mass

  13. Ethnomedical and ethnobotanical investigations on the response capacities of Guinean traditional health practioners in the management of outbreaks of infectious diseases: The case of the Ebola virus epidemic.

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    Baldé, A M; Traoré, M S; Baldé, M A; Barry, M S; Diallo, A; Camara, M; Traoré, S; Kouyaté, M; Traoré, S; Ouo-Ouo, S; Myanthé, A L; Keita, N; Haba, N L; Goumou, K; Bah, F; Camara, A; Diallo, M S T; Sylla, M; Baldé, E S; Diané, S; Pieters, L; Oularé, K

    2016-04-22

    The recent outbreak of Ebola virus infections has mostly remained confined to the West African countries Guinea-Conakry, Sierra-Leone and Liberia. Due to intense national and international mobilizations, a significant reduction in Ebola virus transmission has been recorded. While international efforts focus on new vaccines, medicines and diagnostics, no coherent national or international approach exists to integrate the potential of the traditional health practitioners (THPs) in the management of infectious diseases epidemics. Nevertheless, the first contact of most of the Ebola infected patients is with the THPs since the symptoms are similar to those of common traditionally treated diseases or symptoms such as malaria, hemorrhagic syndrome, typhoid or other gastrointestinal diseases, fever and vomiting. In an ethnomedical survey conducted in the 4 main Guinean regions contacts were established with a total of 113 THPs. The socio-demographic characteristics, the professional status and the traditional perception of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) were recorded. The traditional treatment of the main symptoms was based on 47 vegetal recipes which were focused on the treatment of diarrhea (22 recipes), fever (22 recipes), vomiting (2 recipes), external antiseptic (2 recipes), hemorrhagic syndrome (2 recipes), convulsion and dysentery (one recipe each). An ethnobotanical survey led to the collection of 54 plant species from which 44 identified belonging to 26 families. The most represented families were Euphorbiaceae, Caesalpiniaceae and Rubiaceae. Literature data on the twelve most cited plant species tends to corroborate their traditional use and to highlight their pharmacological potential. It is worth to document all available knowledge on the traditional management of EVD-like symptoms in order to evaluate systematically the anti-Ebola potential of Guinean plant species. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Coupling effects on turning points of infectious diseases epidemics in scale-free networks.

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    Kim, Kiseong; Lee, Sangyeon; Lee, Doheon; Lee, Kwang Hyung

    2017-05-31

    Pandemic is a typical spreading phenomenon that can be observed in the human society and is dependent on the structure of the social network. The Susceptible-Infective-Recovered (SIR) model describes spreading phenomena using two spreading factors; contagiousness (β) and recovery rate (γ). Some network models are trying to reflect the social network, but the real structure is difficult to uncover. We have developed a spreading phenomenon simulator that can input the epidemic parameters and network parameters and performed the experiment of disease propagation. The simulation result was analyzed to construct a new marker VRTP distribution. We also induced the VRTP formula for three of the network mathematical models. We suggest new marker VRTP (value of recovered on turning point) to describe the coupling between the SIR spreading and the Scale-free (SF) network and observe the aspects of the coupling effects with the various of spreading and network parameters. We also derive the analytic formulation of VRTP in the fully mixed model, the configuration model, and the degree-based model respectively in the mathematical function form for the insights on the relationship between experimental simulation and theoretical consideration. We discover the coupling effect between SIR spreading and SF network through devising novel marker VRTP which reflects the shifting effect and relates to entropy.

  15. Operationalising factors that explain the emergence of infectious diseases: a case study of the human campylobacteriosis epidemic.

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    Norval J C Strachan

    Full Text Available A framework of general factors for infectious disease emergence was made operational for Campylobacter utilising explanatory variables including time series and risk factor data. These variables were generated using a combination of empirical epidemiology, case-case and case-control studies, time series analysis, and microbial sub-typing (source attribution, diversity, genetic distance to unravel the changing/emerging aetiology of human campylobacteriosis. The study focused on Scotland between 1990-2012 where there was a 75% increase in reported cases that included >300% increase in the elderly and 50% decrease in young children. During this period there were three phases 1990-2000 a 75% rise and a 20% fall to 2006, followed by a 19% resurgence. The rise coincided with expansions in the poultry industry, consumption of chicken, and a shift from rural to urban cases. The post-2000 fall occurred across all groups apart from the elderly and coincided with a drop of the prevalence of Campylobacter in chicken and a higher proportion of rural cases. The increase in the elderly was associated with uptake of proton pump inhibitors. During the resurgence the increase was predominantly in adults and the elderly, again there was increasing use of PPIs and high prevalences in chicken and ruminants. Cases associated with foreign travel during the study also increased from 9% to a peak of 16% in 2006 before falling to an estimated 10% in 2011, predominantly in adults and older children. During all three periods source attribution, genetic distance, and diversity measurements placed human isolates most similar to those in chickens. A combination of emergence factors generic for infectious diseases were responsible for the Campylobacter epidemic. It was possible to use these to obtain a putative explanation for the changes in human disease and the potential to make an informed view of how incidence rates may change in the future.

  16. The role of international migration in infectious diseases: the HIV epidemic and its trends in Japan.

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    Komatsu, Ryuichi; Sawada, Takashi

    2007-01-01

    Globalization and its associated international migrations facilitate the spread of infectious diseases. This article reports trends in and discusses the relation between international migration and HIV infection in Japan. The authors analyze relevant literature, drawing on government and other sources. Among foreigners in Japan, there were 27.0 reported HIV and 9.3 reported AIDS cases per million in 1990, and 52.9 HIV and 38.8 AIDS cases per million in 2000. These rates were initially 45 to 90 times the population prevalence of HIV and AIDS among Japanese, but are now only 10 to 20 times the prevalence among Japanese, as HIV becomes an increasing problem for the Japanese population. HIV-infected foreigners who are uninsured are at a disadvantage for diagnosis, counseling, and treatment compared with insured persons, and at a significantly higher risk for low CD4 counts. For all sections of Japan's population, counseling and testing are inadequate, and surveillance of behavioral risk, infection, and disease is limited. International migrants are at increased risk for HIV transmission and at a disadvantage for care and treatment. Japan needs both to develop policies that assist migrants and to respond to the growing threat among its nonmigrant population.

  17. Theoretical basis to measure the impact of short-lasting control of an infectious disease on the epidemic peak

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    Omori Ryosuke

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background While many pandemic preparedness plans have promoted disease control effort to lower and delay an epidemic peak, analytical methods for determining the required control effort and making statistical inferences have yet to be sought. As a first step to address this issue, we present a theoretical basis on which to assess the impact of an early intervention on the epidemic peak, employing a simple epidemic model. Methods We focus on estimating the impact of an early control effort (e.g. unsuccessful containment, assuming that the transmission rate abruptly increases when control is discontinued. We provide analytical expressions for magnitude and time of the epidemic peak, employing approximate logistic and logarithmic-form solutions for the latter. Empirical influenza data (H1N1-2009 in Japan are analyzed to estimate the effect of the summer holiday period in lowering and delaying the peak in 2009. Results Our model estimates that the epidemic peak of the 2009 pandemic was delayed for 21 days due to summer holiday. Decline in peak appears to be a nonlinear function of control-associated reduction in the reproduction number. Peak delay is shown to critically depend on the fraction of initially immune individuals. Conclusions The proposed modeling approaches offer methodological avenues to assess empirical data and to objectively estimate required control effort to lower and delay an epidemic peak. Analytical findings support a critical need to conduct population-wide serological survey as a prior requirement for estimating the time of peak.

  18. Post epidemic giardiasis and gastrointestinal symptoms among preschool children in Bergen, Norway. A cross-sectional study

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    Eide Geir E

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A surprisingly low number of children became ill with giardiasis during the large waterborne outbreak of Giardia lamblia in Bergen, Norway during autumn 2004. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the prevalence of giardiasis among exposed children one year after an outbreak and compare faecal carriage of Giardia and abdominal symptoms among exposed versus unexposed children one year after the epidemic. Methods Children between 1 and 6 years old were recruited from the local health care centres in Bergen municipality in the period between June 2005 and January 2006. One faecal sample per child was collected and examined for presence of Giardia with a rapid immunoassay antigen test, and parents were asked to answer a questionnaire. A total of 513 children participated, 378 in the group exposed to contaminated water, and 135 in the in the group not exposed. Results In the exposed group eleven children had been treated for giardiasis during the epidemic and none in the unexposed group. Giardia positive faecal tests were found in six children, all in the exposed group, but the difference between the groups did not reach statistical significance. All six Giardia positive children were asymptomatic. No differences were found between the groups regarding demographic data, nausea, vomiting, different odour from stools and eructation. However, the reported scores of abdominal symptoms (diarrhoea, bloating and stomach ache during the last year were higher in the exposed group than in the unexposed group. Conclusions A low prevalence of asymptomatic Giardia infection (1.7% was found among exposed children around one year after the epidemic (1.2% overall prevalence in the study. In the present setting, pre-school children were therefore unlikely to be an important reservoir for continued transmission in the general population.

  19. Anti-Infective Activities of Lactobacillus Strains in the Human Intestinal Microbiota: from Probiotics to Gastrointestinal Anti-Infectious Biotherapeutic Agents

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    Liévin-Le Moal, Vanessa

    2014-01-01

    SUMMARY A vast and diverse array of microbial species displaying great phylogenic, genomic, and metabolic diversity have colonized the gastrointestinal tract. Resident microbes play a beneficial role by regulating the intestinal immune system, stimulating the maturation of host tissues, and playing a variety of roles in nutrition and in host resistance to gastric and enteric bacterial pathogens. The mechanisms by which the resident microbial species combat gastrointestinal pathogens are complex and include competitive metabolic interactions and the production of antimicrobial molecules. The human intestinal microbiota is a source from which Lactobacillus probiotic strains have often been isolated. Only six probiotic Lactobacillus strains isolated from human intestinal microbiota, i.e., L. rhamnosus GG, L. casei Shirota YIT9029, L. casei DN-114 001, L. johnsonii NCC 533, L. acidophilus LB, and L. reuteri DSM 17938, have been well characterized with regard to their potential antimicrobial effects against the major gastric and enteric bacterial pathogens and rotavirus. In this review, we describe the current knowledge concerning the experimental antibacterial activities, including antibiotic-like and cell-regulating activities, and therapeutic effects demonstrated in well-conducted, placebo-controlled, randomized clinical trials of these probiotic Lactobacillus strains. What is known about the antimicrobial activities supported by the molecules secreted by such probiotic Lactobacillus strains suggests that they constitute a promising new source for the development of innovative anti-infectious agents that act luminally and intracellularly in the gastrointestinal tract. PMID:24696432

  20. The French Infectious Diseases Society's readiness and response to epidemic or biological risk-the current situation following the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus and Ebola virus disease alerts.

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    Coignard-Biehler, H; Rapp, C; Chapplain, J M; Hoen, B; Che, D; Berthelot, P; Cazenave-Roblot, F; Rabaud, C; Brouqui, P; Leport, C

    2018-03-01

    In 2012, the French Infectious Diseases Society (French acronym SPILF) initiated the "Coordination of epidemic and biological risk" (SPILF-COREB - Emergences [SCE]) group to support the readiness and response of healthcare workers (HCWs) to new alerts. To present the SCE group, its functioning, and the main support it provided for frontline HCWs. A multidisciplinary group of heads of infectious disease departments from reference hospitals was created to build a network of clinical expertise for care, training, and research in the field of epidemic and biological risk (EBR). The network developed a set of standardized operational procedures (SOPs) to guide interventions to manage EBR-suspect patients. A working group created the SOP aimed at frontline HCWs taking care of patients. Priority was given to the development of a generic procedure, which was then adapted according to the current alert. Five key steps were identified and hierarchized: detecting, protecting, caring for, alerting, and referring the EBR patient. The interaction between clinicians and those responsible for the protection of the community was crucial. The SOPs validated by the SPILF and its affiliates were disseminated to a wide range of key stakeholders through various media including workshops and the SPILF's website. SPILF can easily adapt and timely mobilize the EBR expertise in case of an alert. The present work suggests that sharing and discussing this experience, initiated at the European level, can generate a new collective expertise and needs to be further developed and strengthened. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  1. Unusual climatic conditions and infectious diseases: observations made by Hippocrates.

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    Falagas, Matthew E; Bliziotis, Ioannis A; Kosmidis, John; Daikos, George K

    2010-12-01

    About 2500 years ago, Hippocrates made noteworthy observations about the influence of climate on public health. He believed that people living in cities with different climate may suffer from different diseases. Hippocrates also observed that abrupt climatic changes or unusual weather conditions affect public health, especially the incidence and severity of various infectious diseases, including gastrointestinal infections, tuberculosis, and central nervous system infections. We believe that Hippocrates' scientific observations are great early historic examples that stress to modern infectious diseases researchers and clinicians the need to study intensively the effect of the occurring global climate changes to infectious diseases in order to help in the prevention of possible epidemics of infections. Copyright © 2009 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  2. A Full-Length Infectious cDNA Clone of Zika Virus from the 2015 Epidemic in Brazil as a Genetic Platform for Studies of Virus-Host Interactions and Vaccine Development

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    Konstantin A. Tsetsarkin

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available An arthropod-borne virus, Zika virus (ZIKV, has recently emerged as a major human pathogen. Associated with complications during perinatal development and Guillain-Barré syndrome in adults, ZIKV raises new challenges for understanding the molecular determinants of flavivirus pathogenesis. This underscores the necessity for the development of a reverse genetic system based on an epidemic ZIKV strain. Here, we describe the generation and characterization in cell cultures of an infectious cDNA clone of ZIKV isolated from the 2015 epidemic in Brazil. The cDNA-derived ZIKV replicated efficiently in a variety of cell lines, including those of both neuronal and placental origin. We observed that the growth of cDNA-derived virus was attenuated compared to the growth of the parental isolate in most cell lines, which correlates with substantial differences in sequence heterogeneity between these viruses that were determined by deep-sequencing analysis. Our findings support the role of genetic diversity in maintaining the replicative fitness of viral populations under changing conditions. Moreover, these results indicate that caution should be exercised when interpreting the results of reverse-genetics experiments in attempts to accurately predict the biology of natural viruses. Finally, a Vero cell-adapted cDNA clone of ZIKV was generated that can be used as a convenient platform for studies aimed at the development of ZIKV vaccines and therapeutics.

  3. Impact of infectious disease epidemics on tuberculosis diagnostic, management, and prevention services: experiences and lessons from the 2014–2015 Ebola virus disease outbreak in West Africa

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    Rashid Ansumana

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The World Health Organization (WHO Global Tuberculosis Report 2015 states that 28% of the world's 9.6 million new tuberculosis (TB cases are in the WHO Africa Region. The Mano River Union (MRU countries of West Africa–Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia–have made incremental sustained investments into TB control programmes over the past two decades. The devastating Ebola virus disease (EVD outbreak of 2014–2015 in West Africa impacted significantly on all sectors of the healthcare systems in the MRU countries, including the TB prevention and control programmes. The EVD outbreak also had an adverse impact on the healthcare workforce and healthcare service delivery. At the height of the EVD outbreak, numerous staff members in all MRU countries contracted EBV at the Ebola treatment units and died. Many healthcare workers were also infected in healthcare facilities that were not Ebola treatment units but were national hospitals and peripheral health units that were unprepared for receiving patients with EVD. In all three MRU countries, the disruption to TB services due to the EVD epidemic will no doubt have increased Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission, TB morbidity and mortality, and decreased patient adherence to TB treatment, and the likely impact will not be known for several years to come. In this viewpoint, the impact that the EVD outbreak had on TB diagnostic, management, and prevention services is described. Vaccination against TB with BCG in children under 5 years of age was affected adversely by the EVD epidemic. The EVD outbreak was a result of global failure and represents yet another ‘wake-up call’ to the international community, and particularly to African governments, to reach a consensus on new ways of thinking at the national, regional, and global levels for building healthcare systems that can sustain their function during outbreaks. This is necessary so that other disease control programmes (like those for TB, malaria

  4. FRED (a Framework for Reconstructing Epidemic Dynamics): an open-source software system for modeling infectious diseases and control strategies using census-based populations.

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    Grefenstette, John J; Brown, Shawn T; Rosenfeld, Roni; DePasse, Jay; Stone, Nathan T B; Cooley, Phillip C; Wheaton, William D; Fyshe, Alona; Galloway, David D; Sriram, Anuroop; Guclu, Hasan; Abraham, Thomas; Burke, Donald S

    2013-10-08

    Mathematical and computational models provide valuable tools that help public health planners to evaluate competing health interventions, especially for novel circumstances that cannot be examined through observational or controlled studies, such as pandemic influenza. The spread of diseases like influenza depends on the mixing patterns within the population, and these mixing patterns depend in part on local factors including the spatial distribution and age structure of the population, the distribution of size and composition of households, employment status and commuting patterns of adults, and the size and age structure of schools. Finally, public health planners must take into account the health behavior patterns of the population, patterns that often vary according to socioeconomic factors such as race, household income, and education levels. FRED (a Framework for Reconstructing Epidemic Dynamics) is a freely available open-source agent-based modeling system based closely on models used in previously published studies of pandemic influenza. This version of FRED uses open-access census-based synthetic populations that capture the demographic and geographic heterogeneities of the population, including realistic household, school, and workplace social networks. FRED epidemic models are currently available for every state and county in the United States, and for selected international locations. State and county public health planners can use FRED to explore the effects of possible influenza epidemics in specific geographic regions of interest and to help evaluate the effect of interventions such as vaccination programs and school closure policies. FRED is available under a free open source license in order to contribute to the development of better modeling tools and to encourage open discussion of modeling tools being used to evaluate public health policies. We also welcome participation by other researchers in the further development of FRED.

  5. Epidemic as a natural process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koivu-Jolma, Mikko; Annila, Arto

    2018-05-01

    Mathematical epidemiology is a well-recognized discipline to model infectious diseases. It also provides guidance for public health officials to limit outbreaks. Nevertheless, epidemics take societies by surprise every now and then, for example, when the Ebola virus epidemic raged seemingly unrestrained in Western Africa. We provide insight to this capricious character of nature by describing the epidemic as a natural process, i.e., a phenomenon governed by thermodynamics. Our account, based on statistical mechanics of open systems, clarifies that it is impossible to predict accurately epidemic courses because everything depends on everything else. Nonetheless, the thermodynamic theory yields a comprehensive and analytical view of the epidemic. The tenet subsumes various processes in a scale-free manner from the molecular to the societal levels. The holistic view accentuates overarching procedures in arresting and eradicating epidemics. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Percolation and epidemics in random clustered networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Joel C.

    2009-08-01

    The social networks that infectious diseases spread along are typically clustered. Because of the close relation between percolation and epidemic spread, the behavior of percolation in such networks gives insight into infectious disease dynamics. A number of authors have studied percolation or epidemics in clustered networks, but the networks often contain preferential contacts in high degree nodes. We introduce a class of random clustered networks and a class of random unclustered networks with the same preferential mixing. Percolation in the clustered networks reduces the component sizes and increases the epidemic threshold compared to the unclustered networks.

  7. Toward a generalized theory of epidemic awareness in social networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qingchu; Zhu, Wenfang

    We discuss the dynamics of a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model with local awareness in networks. Individual awareness to the infectious disease is characterized by a general function of epidemic information in its neighborhood. We build a high-accuracy approximate equation governing the spreading dynamics and derive an approximate epidemic threshold above which the epidemic spreads over the whole network. Our results extend the previous work and show that the epidemic threshold is dependent on the awareness function in terms of one infectious neighbor. Interestingly, when a pow-law awareness function is chosen, the epidemic threshold can emerge in infinite networks.

  8. Global Dynamics of Infectious Disease with Arbitrary Distributed Infectious Period on Complex Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoguang Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Most of the current epidemic models assume that the infectious period follows an exponential distribution. However, due to individual heterogeneity and epidemic diversity, these models fail to describe the distribution of infectious periods precisely. We establish a SIS epidemic model with multistaged progression of infectious periods on complex networks, which can be used to characterize arbitrary distributions of infectious periods of the individuals. By using mathematical analysis, the basic reproduction number R0 for the model is derived. We verify that the R0 depends on the average distributions of infection periods for different types of infective individuals, which extend the general theory obtained from the single infectious period epidemic models. It is proved that if R0<1, then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable; otherwise the unique endemic equilibrium exists such that it is globally asymptotically attractive. Finally numerical simulations hold for the validity of our theoretical results is given.

  9. Effects of gastrointestinal parasites on parasite burden, rectal temperature, and antibody titer responses to vaccination and infectious bovine rhinotracheitis virus challenge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schutz, J S; Carroll, J A; Gasbarre, L C; Shelton, T A; Nordstrom, S T; Hutcheson, J P; Van Campen, H; Engle, T E

    2012-06-01

    Thirty-three colostrum-deprived Holstein bull calves (initial BW of 131 ± 4 kg) were used to determine the effect of timing of anthelmintic administration relative to vaccination on antibody titer response to vaccine component antigens. When calves were at least 3 mo of age, they were sorted randomly into individual pens and assigned to 1 of 3 treatment groups, treatments consisted of 1) dewormed 2 wk before vaccination (DPV), 2) dewormed at the time of vaccination (DV), or 3) control, vaccinated but not dewormed (CONT). All calves were inoculated with infective larvae of brown stomach worms (Ostertagia ostertagi) and intestinal worms (Cooperia spp.) on d 1, 7, 10, 14, and 18 for a total dose of 235,710 infective larvae per calf. Calves (DPV and DV) were dewormed on d 21 or 35 with a 10% fenbendazole suspension at 5 mg/kg of BW. On d 35, all calves were vaccinated with a modified-live virus respiratory vaccine containing IBRV (infectious bovine rhinotracheitis virus), BVDV-1 (bovine viral diarrhea virus genotype 1), BVDV-2 (BVDV genotype 2), PI-3 (parainfluenza-3), and BRSV (bovine respiratory syncytial virus). During the 103-d experiment, weekly fecal egg counts, blood, and rectal temperatures were collected and health status was recorded daily. Blood samples were obtained weekly to determine serum neutralizing (SN) antibody titers to IBRV, BVDV-1, BVDV-2, and PI-3 and cytokine levels for IL-4, IL-6, TNF-α (tumor necrosis factor-α), and IFN-γ (interferon-gamma). There was a tendency (P parasite burden and decreased rectal temperature increase after an IBRV challenge. Deworming strategy had no effect on antibody response to vaccination or IBRV challenge.

  10. Epidemic typhus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bechah, Yassina; Capo, Christian; Mege, Jean-Louis; Raoult, Didier

    2008-07-01

    Epidemic typhus is transmitted to human beings by the body louse Pediculus humanus corporis. The disease is still considered a major threat by public-health authorities, despite the efficacy of antibiotics, because poor sanitary conditions are conducive to louse proliferation. Until recently, Rickettsia prowazekii, the causal agent, was thought to be confined to human beings and their body lice. Since 1975, R prowazekii infection in human beings has been related to contact with the flying squirrel Glaucomys volans in the USA. Moreover, Brill-Zinsser disease, a relapsed form of epidemic typhus that appears as sporadic cases many years after the initial infection, is unrelated to louse infestation. Stress or a waning immune system are likely to reactivate this earlier persistent infection, which could be the source of new epidemics when conditions facilitate louse infestation. Finally, R prowazekii is a potential category B bioterrorism agent, because it is stable in dried louse faeces and can be transmitted through aerosols. An increased understanding of the pathogenesis of epidemic typhus may be useful for protection against this bacterial threat.

  11. Household demographic determinants of Ebola epidemic risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Ben

    2016-03-07

    A salient characteristic of Ebola, and some other infectious diseases such as Tuberculosis, is intense transmission among small groups of cohabitants and relatively limited indiscriminate transmission in the wider population. Here we consider a mathematical model for an Ebola epidemic in a population structured into households of equal size. We show that household size, a fundamental demographic unit, is a critical factor that determines the vulnerability of a community to epidemics, and the effort required to control them. Our analysis is based on the household reproduction number, but we also consider the basic reproduction number, intrinsic growth rate and final epidemic size. We show that, when other epidemiological parameters are kept the same, all of these quantifications of epidemic growth and size are increased by larger households and more intense within-household transmission. We go on to model epidemic control by case detection and isolation followed by household quarantine. We show that, if household quarantine is ineffective, the critical probability with which cases must be detected to halt an epidemic increases significantly with each increment in household size and may be a very challenging target for communities composed of large households. Effective quarantine may, however, mitigate the detrimental impact of large household sizes. We conclude that communities composed of large households are fundamentally more vulnerable to epidemics of infectious diseases primarily transmitted by close contact, and any assessment of control strategies for these epidemics should take into account the demographic structure of the population. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Mitigating Infectious Disease Outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davey, Victoria

    The emergence of new, transmissible infections poses a significant threat to human populations. As the 2009 novel influenza A/H1N1 pandemic and the 2014-2015 Ebola epidemic demonstrate, we have observed the effects of rapid spread of illness in non-immune populations and experienced disturbing uncertainty about future potential for human suffering and societal disruption. Clinical and epidemiologic characteristics of a newly emerged infectious organism are usually gathered in retrospect as the outbreak evolves and affects populations. Knowledge of potential effects of outbreaks and epidemics and most importantly, mitigation at community, regional, national and global levels is needed to inform policy that will prepare and protect people. Study of possible outcomes of evolving epidemics and application of mitigation strategies is not possible in observational or experimental research designs, but computational modeling allows conduct of `virtual' experiments. Results of well-designed computer simulations can aid in the selection and implementation of strategies that limit illness and death, and maintain systems of healthcare and other critical resources that are vital to public protection. Mitigating Infectious Disease Outbreaks.

  13. Infectious Diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... But some of them can make you sick. Infectious diseases are diseases that are caused by germs. There ... many different ways that you can get an infectious disease: Through direct contact with a person who is ...

  14. Agreement between gastrointestinal panel testing and standard microbiology methods for detecting pathogens in suspected infectious gastroenteritis: Test evaluation and meta-analysis in the absence of a reference standard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeman, Karoline; Tsertsvadze, Alexander; Taylor-Phillips, Sian; McCarthy, Noel; Mistry, Hema; Manuel, Rohini; Mason, James

    2017-01-01

    Multiplex gastrointestinal pathogen panel (GPP) tests simultaneously identify bacterial, viral and parasitic pathogens from the stool samples of patients with suspected infectious gastroenteritis presenting in hospital or the community. We undertook a systematic review to compare the accuracy of GPP tests with standard microbiology techniques. Searches in Medline, Embase, Web of Science and the Cochrane library were undertaken from inception to January 2016. Eligible studies compared GPP tests with standard microbiology techniques in patients with suspected gastroenteritis. Quality assessment of included studies used tailored QUADAS-2. In the absence of a reference standard we analysed test performance taking GPP tests and standard microbiology techniques in turn as the benchmark test, using random effects meta-analysis of proportions. No study provided an adequate reference standard with which to compare the test accuracy of GPP and conventional tests. Ten studies informed a meta-analysis of positive and negative agreement. Positive agreement across all pathogens was 0.93 (95% CI 0.90 to 0.96) when conventional methods were the benchmark and 0.68 (95% CI: 0.58 to 0.77) when GPP provided the benchmark. Negative agreement was high in both instances due to the high proportion of negative cases. GPP testing produced a greater number of pathogen-positive findings than conventional testing. It is unclear whether these additional 'positives' are clinically important. GPP testing has the potential to simplify testing and accelerate reporting when compared to conventional microbiology methods. However the impact of GPP testing upon the management, treatment and outcome of patients is poorly understood and further studies are needed to evaluate the health economic impact of GPP testing compared with standard methods. The review protocol is registered with PROSPERO as CRD42016033320.

  15. Epidemic processes in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Castellano, Claudio; Van Mieghem, Piet; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2015-07-01

    In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide range of biological and sociotechnical systems. The complex properties of real-world networks have a profound impact on the behavior of equilibrium and nonequilibrium phenomena occurring in various systems, and the study of epidemic spreading is central to our understanding of the unfolding of dynamical processes in complex networks. The theoretical analysis of epidemic spreading in heterogeneous networks requires the development of novel analytical frameworks, and it has produced results of conceptual and practical relevance. A coherent and comprehensive review of the vast research activity concerning epidemic processes is presented, detailing the successful theoretical approaches as well as making their limits and assumptions clear. Physicists, mathematicians, epidemiologists, computer, and social scientists share a common interest in studying epidemic spreading and rely on similar models for the description of the diffusion of pathogens, knowledge, and innovation. For this reason, while focusing on the main results and the paradigmatic models in infectious disease modeling, the major results concerning generalized social contagion processes are also presented. Finally, the research activity at the forefront in the study of epidemic spreading in coevolving, coupled, and time-varying networks is reported.

  16. Hybrid epidemic spreading - from Internet worms to HIV infection

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, C.

    2015-01-01

    Epidemic phenomena are ubiquitous, ranging from infectious diseases, computer viruses, to information dissemination. Epidemics have traditionally been studied as a single spreading process, either in a fully mixed population or on a network. Many epidemics, however, are hybrid, employing more than one spreading mechanism. For example, the Internet worm Conficker spreads locally targeting neighbouring computers in local networks as well as globally by randomly probing any computer on the Inter...

  17. Can epidemics be non-communicable?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seeberg, Jens; Meinert, Lotte

    2015-01-01

    This article argues that the concept of communicability that is central to the distinction between communicable diseases (CDs) and noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) is poorly conceptualized. The epidemic spread of NCDs such as diabetes, depression, and eating disorders demonstrates...... that they are communicable, even if they are not infectious. We need to more critically explore how they might be communicable in specific environments. All diseases with epidemic potential, we argue, should be assumed to be commun icable in a broader sense, and that the underlying medical distinction between infectious...... and noninfectious diseases confuses our understanding of NCD epidemics when these categories are treated as synonymous with ‘communicable’ and ‘noncommunicable’ diseases, respectively. The dominant role accorded to the concept of ‘lifestyle’, with its focus on individual responsibility, is part of the problem...

  18. Parameter Scaling for Epidemic Size in a Spatial Epidemic Model with Mobile Individuals.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiyori T Urabe

    Full Text Available In recent years, serious infectious diseases tend to transcend national borders and widely spread in a global scale. The incidence and prevalence of epidemics are highly influenced not only by pathogen-dependent disease characteristics such as the force of infection, the latent period, and the infectious period, but also by human mobility and contact patterns. However, the effect of heterogeneous mobility of individuals on epidemic outcomes is not fully understood. Here, we aim to elucidate how spatial mobility of individuals contributes to the final epidemic size in a spatial susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR model with mobile individuals in a square lattice. After illustrating the interplay between the mobility parameters and the other parameters on the spatial epidemic spreading, we propose an index as a function of system parameters, which largely governs the final epidemic size. The main contribution of this study is to show that the proposed index is useful for estimating how parameter scaling affects the final epidemic size. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed index, we show that there is a positive correlation between the proposed index computed with the real data of human airline travels and the actual number of positive incident cases of influenza B in the entire world, implying that the growing incidence of influenza B is attributed to increased human mobility.

  19. Gastrointestinal infections in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mönkemüller, K E; Wilcox, C M

    2001-01-01

    Gastrointestinal infections in children are a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Children living in developing countries are particularly susceptible to infectious diarrhea because of poor standards of hygiene and sanitation. Although the magnitude of diarrheal illnesses in developed countries is less, costly hospital admissions are still frequent. The causal agent of infectious diarrhea is most frequently related to age, geographical location, lifestyle habits, use of antibiotics, associated medical conditions, social circumstances, and degree of immune competence. In this article we present some of the most important articles published in the field during the last year. The role of Helicobacter pylori in the pathogenesis of gastritis and peptic ulcer disease has been shown in adults and children. Information about the natural history of H. pylori, symptomatology, and diagnostic therapeutic approaches for children are being generated constantly; we discuss some of the most relevant information in this review.

  20. Infectious Arthritis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Most kinds of arthritis cause pain and swelling in your joints. Joints are places where two bones meet, such as your elbow or knee. Infectious arthritis is an infection in the joint. The infection ...

  1. Gastrointestinal tuberculosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galloway, D J; Scott, R N

    1986-10-01

    In the developed countries gastrointestinal tuberculosis is no longer common in clinical practice. In this setting the importance of the condition lies in the vagaries of its presentation and the fact that it is eminently treatable, usually by a combination of chemotherapy and surgery. The clinical features and complications of gastrointestinal tuberculosis are highlighted by the seven cases which we report. Diagnosis and treatment of this condition is discussed and attention is drawn to the importance of case notification. Clinicians should bear in mind the diagnosis of gastrointestinal tuberculosis when dealing with any patient with non-specific abdominal symptoms.

  2. Stochastic analysis of epidemics on adaptive time varying networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotnis, Bhushan; Kuri, Joy

    2013-06-01

    Many studies investigating the effect of human social connectivity structures (networks) and human behavioral adaptations on the spread of infectious diseases have assumed either a static connectivity structure or a network which adapts itself in response to the epidemic (adaptive networks). However, human social connections are inherently dynamic or time varying. Furthermore, the spread of many infectious diseases occur on a time scale comparable to the time scale of the evolving network structure. Here we aim to quantify the effect of human behavioral adaptations on the spread of asymptomatic infectious diseases on time varying networks. We perform a full stochastic analysis using a continuous time Markov chain approach for calculating the outbreak probability, mean epidemic duration, epidemic reemergence probability, etc. Additionally, we use mean-field theory for calculating epidemic thresholds. Theoretical predictions are verified using extensive simulations. Our studies have uncovered the existence of an “adaptive threshold,” i.e., when the ratio of susceptibility (or infectivity) rate to recovery rate is below the threshold value, adaptive behavior can prevent the epidemic. However, if it is above the threshold, no amount of behavioral adaptations can prevent the epidemic. Our analyses suggest that the interaction patterns of the infected population play a major role in sustaining the epidemic. Our results have implications on epidemic containment policies, as awareness campaigns and human behavioral responses can be effective only if the interaction levels of the infected populace are kept in check.

  3. [Modern methods application of genotyping of infectious diseases pathogens in the context of operational work of specialized anti-epidemic team during the XXII Olympic Winter Games and XI Paralympic Winter Games].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuzkin, B P; Kulichenko, A N; Volynkina, A S; Efremenko, D V; Kuznetsova, I V; Kotenev, E S; Lyamkin, G I; Kartsev, N N; Klindukhov, V P

    2015-01-01

    This paper considers the experience of genotyping and sequencing technologies in laboratories of specialized anti-epidemic team (SAET) during the XXII Olympic Winter Games and XI Paralympic Winter Games of 2014 in Sochi. The work carried out during the pre-Olympic period on performance of readiness by SAET for these studies is analyzed. The results of genotyping strains of pathogens during the Olympic Games are presented. A conclusion about the effectiveness of the use of molecular genetic techniques in terms of SAET is made.

  4. Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Guangming; Wang, Xingyuan

    2014-06-01

    The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold qc. The epidemic will survive when q > qc and die when q epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure.

  5. Gastrointestinal bleeding

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Sigmoidoscopy Alternative Names Lower GI bleeding; GI bleeding; Upper GI bleeding; Hematochezia Images GI bleeding - series Fecal occult blood test References Kovacs TO, Jensen DM. Gastrointestinal hemorrhage. In: Goldman L, Schafer AI, eds. Goldman- ...

  6. Untangling the Interplay between Epidemic Spread and Transmission Network Dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christel Kamp

    Full Text Available The epidemic spread of infectious diseases is ubiquitous and often has a considerable impact on public health and economic wealth. The large variability in the spatio-temporal patterns of epidemics prohibits simple interventions and requires a detailed analysis of each epidemic with respect to its infectious agent and the corresponding routes of transmission. To facilitate this analysis, we introduce a mathematical framework which links epidemic patterns to the topology and dynamics of the underlying transmission network. The evolution, both in disease prevalence and transmission network topology, is derived from a closed set of partial differential equations for infections without allowing for recovery. The predictions are in excellent agreement with complementarily conducted agent-based simulations. The capacity of this new method is demonstrated in several case studies on HIV epidemics in synthetic populations: it allows us to monitor the evolution of contact behavior among healthy and infected individuals and the contributions of different disease stages to the spreading of the epidemic. This gives both direction to and a test bed for targeted intervention strategies for epidemic control. In conclusion, this mathematical framework provides a capable toolbox for the analysis of epidemics from first principles. This allows for fast, in silico modeling--and manipulation--of epidemics and is especially powerful if complemented with adequate empirical data for parameterization.

  7. [Infectious diseases].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapuis-Taillard, Caroline; de Vallière, Serge; Bochud, Pierre-Yves

    2009-01-07

    In 2008, several publications have highlighted the role of climate change and globalization on the epidemiology of infectious diseases. Studies have shown the extension towards Europe of diseases such as Crimea-Congo fever (Kosovo, Turkey and Bulgaria), leismaniosis (Cyprus) and chikungunya virus infection (Italy). The article also contains comments on Plasmodium knowlesi, a newly identified cause of severe malaria in humans, as well as an update on human transmission of the H5NI avian influenza virus. It also mentions new data on Bell's palsy as well as two vaccines (varicella-zoster and pneumococcus), and provides a list of recent guidelines for the treatment of common infectious diseases.

  8. Infectious Diseases,

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-02-29

    of sufficient severity, infectious hepatitis may produce hypoglycemia or hepatic failure. Severe hypoglycemia is also a common danger in neonatal ...emergency situations geoier~3ly involve the correction of severe fluid and electrolyte or acid-base ;atbnormalities. Severe hypoglycemia or anoxia... causes widespread metabolic responses in the host and in addition, leads to nutritional deficiencies. Localized infections may also result in metabolic

  9. Eastern Canadian Gastrointestinal Cancer Consensus Conference 2016.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossé, D; Ng, T; Ahmad, C; Alfakeeh, A; Alruzug, I; Biagi, J; Brierley, J; Chaudhury, P; Cleary, S; Colwell, B; Cripps, C; Dawson, L A; Dorreen, M; Ferland, E; Galiatsatos, P; Girard, S; Gray, S; Halwani, F; Kopek, N; Mahmud, A; Martel, G; Robillard, L; Samson, B; Seal, M; Siddiqui, J; Sideris, L; Snow, S; Thirwell, M; Vickers, M; Goodwin, R; Goel, R; Hsu, T; Tsvetkova, E; Ward, B; Asmis, T

    2016-12-01

    The annual Eastern Canadian Gastrointestinal Cancer Consensus Conference 2016 was held in Montreal, Quebec, 5-7 February. Experts in radiation oncology, medical oncology, surgical oncology, and infectious diseases involved in the management of patients with gastrointestinal malignancies participated in presentations and discussion sessions for the purpose of developing the recommendations presented here. This consensus statement addresses multiple topics: ■ Follow-up and survivorship of patients with resected colorectal cancer■ Indications for liver metastasectomy■ Treatment of oligometastases by stereotactic body radiation therapy■ Treatment of borderline resectable and unresectable pancreatic cancer■ Transarterial chemoembolization in hepatocellular carcinoma■ Infectious complications of antineoplastic agents.

  10. Gastrointestinal System

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jepson, Mark A.; Bouwmeester, Hans

    2017-01-01

    The epithelial lining of the gastrointestinal tract (GIT) acts as a barrier to uptake of potentially dangerous material while allowing absorption of processed food. The gut may be exposed to a diverse range of engineered nanomaterials due to their deliberate addition to food and consumer products

  11. Influence of Media on Seasonal Influenza Epidemic Curves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saito, Satoshi; Saito, Norihiro; Itoga, Masamichi; Ozaki, Hiromi; Kimura, Toshiyuki; Okamura, Yuji; Murakami, Hiroshi; Kayaba, Hiroyuki

    2016-09-01

    Theoretical investigations predicting the epidemic curves of seasonal influenza have been demonstrated so far; however, there is little empirical research using ever accumulated epidemic curves. The effects of vaccine coverage and information distribution on influenza epidemics were evaluated. Four indices for epidemics (i.e., onset-peak duration, onset-end duration, ratio of the onset-peak duration to onset-end duration and steepness of epidemic curves) were defined, and the correlations between these indices and anti-flu drug prescription dose, vaccine coverage, the volume of media and search trend on influenza through internet were analyzed. Epidemiological data on seasonal influenza epidemics from 2002/2003 to 2013/2014 excluding 2009/2010 season were collected from National Institute of Infectious Diseases of Japan. The onset-peak duration and its ratio to onset-end duration correlated inversely with the volume of anti-flu drug prescription. Onset-peak duration correlated positively with media information volume on influenza. The steepness of the epidemic curve, and anti-flu drug prescription dose inversely correlated with the volume of media information. Pre-epidemic search trend and media volume on influenza correlated with the vaccine coverage in the season. Vaccine coverage had no strong effect on epidemic curve. Education through media has an effect on the epidemic curve of seasonal influenza. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  12. Urgent epidemic control mechanism for aviation networks

    KAUST Repository

    Peng, Chengbin; Wang, Shengbin; Shi, Meixia; Jin, Xiaogang

    2011-01-01

    In the current century, the highly developed transportation system can not only boost the economy, but also greatly accelerate the spreading of epidemics. While some epidemic diseases may infect quite a number of people ahead of our awareness, the health care resources such as vaccines and the medical staff are usually locally or even globally insufficient. In this research, with the network of major aviation routes as an example, we present a method to determine the optimal locations to allocate the medical service in order to minimize the impact of the infectious disease with limited resources. Specifically, we demonstrate that when the medical resources are insufficient, we should concentrate our efforts on the travelers with the objective of effectively controlling the spreading rate of the epidemic diseases. © 2011 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

  13. Vaccination intervention on epidemic dynamics in networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Xiao-Long; Xu, Xin-Jian; Fu, Xinchu; Zhou, Tao

    2013-02-01

    Vaccination is an important measure available for preventing or reducing the spread of infectious diseases. In this paper, an epidemic model including susceptible, infected, and imperfectly vaccinated compartments is studied on Watts-Strogatz small-world, Barabási-Albert scale-free, and random scale-free networks. The epidemic threshold and prevalence are analyzed. For small-world networks, the effective vaccination intervention is suggested and its influence on the threshold and prevalence is analyzed. For scale-free networks, the threshold is found to be strongly dependent both on the effective vaccination rate and on the connectivity distribution. Moreover, so long as vaccination is effective, it can linearly decrease the epidemic prevalence in small-world networks, whereas for scale-free networks it acts exponentially. These results can help in adopting pragmatic treatment upon diseases in structured populations.

  14. The epidemic of Tuberculosis on vaccinated population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syahrini, Intan; Sriwahyuni; Halfiani, Vera; Meurah Yuni, Syarifah; Iskandar, Taufiq; Rasudin; Ramli, Marwan

    2017-09-01

    Tuberculosis is an infectious disease which has caused a large number of mortality in Indonesia. This disease is caused by Mycrobacterium tuberculosis. Besides affecting lung, this disease also affects other organs such as lymph gland, intestine, kidneys, uterus, bone, and brain. This article discusses the epidemic of tuberculosis through employing the SEIR model. Here, the population is divided into four compartments which are susceptible, exposed, infected and recovered. The susceptible population is further grouped into two which are vaccinated group and unvaccinated group. The behavior of the epidemic is investigated through analysing the equilibrium of the model. The result shows that administering vaccine to the susceptible population contributes to the reduction of the tuberculosis epidemic rate.

  15. Inferring epidemic network topology from surveillance data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiang Wan

    Full Text Available The transmission of infectious diseases can be affected by many or even hidden factors, making it difficult to accurately predict when and where outbreaks may emerge. One approach at the moment is to develop and deploy surveillance systems in an effort to detect outbreaks as timely as possible. This enables policy makers to modify and implement strategies for the control of the transmission. The accumulated surveillance data including temporal, spatial, clinical, and demographic information, can provide valuable information with which to infer the underlying epidemic networks. Such networks can be quite informative and insightful as they characterize how infectious diseases transmit from one location to another. The aim of this work is to develop a computational model that allows inferences to be made regarding epidemic network topology in heterogeneous populations. We apply our model on the surveillance data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Hong Kong. The inferred epidemic network displays significant effect on the propagation of infectious diseases.

  16. Mechanistic movement models to understand epidemic spread.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fofana, Abdou Moutalab; Hurford, Amy

    2017-05-05

    An overlooked aspect of disease ecology is considering how and why animals come into contact with one and other resulting in disease transmission. Mathematical models of disease spread frequently assume mass-action transmission, justified by stating that susceptible and infectious hosts mix readily, and foregoing any detailed description of host movement. Numerous recent studies have recorded, analysed and modelled animal movement. These movement models describe how animals move with respect to resources, conspecifics and previous movement directions and have been used to understand the conditions for the occurrence and the spread of infectious diseases when hosts perform a type of movement. Here, we summarize the effect of the different types of movement on the threshold conditions for disease spread. We identify gaps in the literature and suggest several promising directions for future research. The mechanistic inclusion of movement in epidemic models may be beneficial for the following two reasons. Firstly, the estimation of the transmission coefficient in an epidemic model is possible because animal movement data can be used to estimate the rate of contacts between conspecifics. Secondly, unsuccessful transmission events, where a susceptible host contacts an infectious host but does not become infected can be quantified. Following an outbreak, this enables disease ecologists to identify 'near misses' and to explore possible alternative epidemic outcomes given shifts in ecological or immunological parameters.This article is part of the themed issue 'Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  17. Five challenges for stochastic epidemic models involving global transmission

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tom Britton

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The most basic stochastic epidemic models are those involving global transmission, meaning that infection rates depend only on the type and state of the individuals involved, and not on their location in the population. Simple as they are, there are still several open problems for such models. For example, when will such an epidemic go extinct and with what probability (questions depending on the population being fixed, changing or growing? How can a model be defined explaining the sometimes observed scenario of frequent mid-sized epidemic outbreaks? How can evolution of the infectious agent transmission rates be modelled and fitted to data in a robust way?

  18. Evaluating Subcriticality during the Ebola Epidemic in West Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wayne T A Enanoria

    Full Text Available The 2014-2015 Ebola outbreak is the largest and most widespread to date. In order to estimate ongoing transmission in the affected countries, we estimated the weekly average number of secondary cases caused by one individual infected with Ebola throughout the infectious period for each affected West African country using a stochastic hidden Markov model fitted to case data from the World Health Organization. If the average number of infections caused by one Ebola infection is less than 1.0, the epidemic is subcritical and cannot sustain itself. The epidemics in Liberia and Sierra Leone have approached subcriticality at some point during the epidemic; the epidemic in Guinea is ongoing with no evidence that it is subcritical. Response efforts to control the epidemic should continue in order to eliminate Ebola cases in West Africa.

  19. Infectious Tolerance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonuleit, Helmut; Schmitt, Edgar; Kakirman, Hacer; Stassen, Michael; Knop, Jürgen; Enk, Alexander H.

    2002-01-01

    Regulatory CD4+CD25+ T cells (Treg) are mandatory for maintaining immunologic self-tolerance. We demonstrate that the cell-cell contact–mediated suppression of conventional CD4+ T cells by human CD25+ Treg cells is fixation resistant, independent from membrane-bound TGF-β but requires activation and protein synthesis of CD25+ Treg cells. Coactivation of CD25+ Treg cells with Treg cell–depleted CD4+ T cells results in anergized CD4+ T cells that in turn inhibit the activation of conventional, freshly isolated CD4+ T helper (Th) cells. This infectious suppressive activity, transferred from CD25+ Treg cells via cell contact, is cell contact–independent and partially mediated by soluble transforming growth factor (TGF)-β. The induction of suppressive properties in conventional CD4+ Th cells represents a mechanism underlying the phenomenon of infectious tolerance. This explains previously published conflicting data on the role of TGF-β in CD25+ Treg cell–induced immunosuppression. PMID:12119350

  20. Learning from Ebola Virus: How to Prevent Future Epidemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander S. Kekulé

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The recent Ebola virus disease (EVD epidemic in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone demonstrated that the World Health Organization (WHO is incapable to control outbreaks of infectious diseases in less developed regions of the world. This essay analyses the causes for the failure of the international response and proposes four measures to improve resilience, early detection and response to future outbreaks of infectious diseases.

  1. Global stability of an SEIR epidemic model with constant immigration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li Guihua [Key Laboratory of Eco-environments in Three Gorges Reservoir Region (Ministry of Education), Faculty of Life Science, Southwest China Normal University, Chongqing 400715 (China) and Department of Mathematics, Southwest China Normal University, Chongqing 400715 (China) and Department of Mathematics, North University of China, Taiyuan Shanxi 030051 (China)]. E-mail: liguihua@nuc.edu.cn; Wang Wendi [Department of Mathematics, Southwest China Normal University, Chongqing 400715 (China); Jin Zhen [Department of Mathematics, North University of China, Taiyuan Shanxi 030051 (China)

    2006-11-15

    An SEIR epidemic model with the infectious force in the latent (exposed), infected and recovered period is studied. It is assumed that susceptible and exposed individuals have constant immigration rates. The model exhibits a unique endemic state if the fraction p of infectious immigrants is positive. If the basic reproduction number R is greater than 1, sufficient conditions for the global stability of the endemic equilibrium are obtained by the compound matrix theory.

  2. Global stability of an SEIR epidemic model with constant immigration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Guihua; Wang Wendi; Jin Zhen

    2006-01-01

    An SEIR epidemic model with the infectious force in the latent (exposed), infected and recovered period is studied. It is assumed that susceptible and exposed individuals have constant immigration rates. The model exhibits a unique endemic state if the fraction p of infectious immigrants is positive. If the basic reproduction number R is greater than 1, sufficient conditions for the global stability of the endemic equilibrium are obtained by the compound matrix theory

  3. Epidemics: Lessons from the past and current patterns of response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Paul

    2008-09-01

    Hippocrates gave the term 'epidemic' its medical meaning. From antiquity to modern times, the meaning of the word epidemic has continued to evolve. Over the centuries, researchers have reached an understanding of the varying aspects of epidemics and have tried to combat them. The role played by travel, trade, and human exchanges in the propagation of epidemic infectious diseases has been understood. In 1948, the World Health Organization was created and given the task of advancing ways of combating epidemics. An early warning system to combat epidemics has been implemented by the WHO. The Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (GOARN) is collaboration between existing institutions and networks that pool their human and technical resources to fight outbreaks. Avian influenza constitutes currently the most deadly epidemic threat, with fears that it could rapidly reach pandemic proportions and put several thousands of lives in jeopardy. Thanks to the WHO's support, most of the world's countries have mobilised and implemented an 'Action Plan for Pandemic Influenza'. As a result, most outbreaks of the H5N1 avian flu virus have so far been speedily contained. Cases of dengue virus introduction in countries possessing every circumstance required for its epidemic spread provide another example pertinent to the prevention of epidemics caused by vector-borne pathogens.

  4. Cooperative epidemics on multiplex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azimi-Tafreshi, N.

    2016-04-01

    The spread of one disease, in some cases, can stimulate the spreading of another infectious disease. Here, we treat analytically a symmetric coinfection model for spreading of two diseases on a two-layer multiplex network. We allow layer overlapping, but we assume that each layer is random and locally loopless. Infection with one of the diseases increases the probability of getting infected with the other. Using the generating function method, we calculate exactly the fraction of individuals infected with both diseases (so-called coinfected clusters) in the stationary state, as well as the epidemic spreading thresholds and the phase diagram of the model. With increasing cooperation, we observe a tricritical point and the type of transition changes from continuous to hybrid. Finally, we compare the coinfected clusters in the case of cooperating diseases with the so-called "viable" clusters in networks with dependencies.

  5. gastrointestinal tract

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rolandas Vaicekauskas

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Introduction : Accurate diagnosis of subepithelial lesions (SELs in the gastrointestinal tract depends on a variety of methods: endoscopy, endoscopic ultrasound and different types of biopsy. Making an error-free diagnosis is vital for the subsequent application of an appropriate treatment. Aim: To evaluate the efficacy of deep biopsy via the endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD technique for SELs in the upper gastrointestinal tract. Material and methods: It was a case series study. Deep biopsy via the ESD technique was completed in 38 patients between November 2012 and October 2014. Thirty-eight SELs in the upper gastrointestinal tract of varying size (very small ≤ 1 cm, small 1–2 cm and large ≥ 2 cm by means of the ESD technique after an incision with an electrosurgical knife of the overlying layers and revealing a small part of the lesion were biopsied under direct endoscopic view. Results: Deep biopsy via the ESD technique was diagnostic in 28 of 38 patients (73.3%; 95% CI: 59.7–89.7%. The diagnostic yield for SELs with a clear endophytic shape increased to 91.3%. An evident endophytic appearance of a subepithelial lesion, the mean number of biopsied samples (6.65 ±1.36 and the total size in length of all samples per case (19.88 ±8.07 mm were the main criteria influencing the positiveness of deep biopsy in the diagnostic group compared to the nondiagnostic one (p = 0.001; p = 0.025; p = 0.008. Conclusions : Deep biopsy via the ESD technique is an effective and safe method for the diagnosis of SELs especially with a clear endophytic appearance in a large number of biopsied samples.

  6. Outbreak or Epidemic? How Obama's Language Choice Transformed the Ebola Outbreak Into an Epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat; Shir-Raz, Yaffa; Bar-Lev, Oshrat Sassoni; James, James J; Green, Manfred S

    2016-08-01

    Our aim was to examine in what terms leading newspapers' online sites described the current Ebola crisis. We employed a quantitative content analysis of terms attributed to Ebola. We found and analyzed 582 articles published between March 23 and September 30, 2014, on the online websites of 3 newspapers: The New York Times, Daily Mail, and Ynet. Our theoretical framework drew from the fields of health communication and emerging infectious disease communication, including such concepts as framing media literacy, risk signatures, and mental models. We found that outbreak and epidemic were used interchangeably in the articles. From September 16, 2014, onward, epidemic predominated, corresponding to when President Barack Obama explicitly referred to Ebola as an epidemic. Prior to Obama's speech, 86.8% of the articles (323) used the term outbreak and only 8.6% (32) used the term epidemic. Subsequently, both terms were used almost the same amount: 53.8% of the articles (113) used the term outbreak and 53.3% (112) used the term epidemic. Effective communication is crucial during public health emergencies such as Ebola, because language framing affects the decision-making process of social judgments and actions. The choice of one term (outbreak) over another (epidemic) can create different conceptualizations of the disease, thereby influencing the risk signature. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:669-673).

  7. Modeling Epidemic Network Failures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Fagertun, Anna Manolova

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents the implementation of a failure propagation model for transport networks when multiple failures occur resulting in an epidemic. We model the Susceptible Infected Disabled (SID) epidemic model and validate it by comparing it to analytical solutions. Furthermore, we evaluate...... the SID model’s behavior and impact on the network performance, as well as the severity of the infection spreading. The simulations are carried out in OPNET Modeler. The model provides an important input to epidemic connection recovery mechanisms, and can due to its flexibility and versatility be used...... to evaluate multiple epidemic scenarios in various network types....

  8. Analysis of social network - An approach towards evaluation of spreading of epidemics in randomized social Network.

    OpenAIRE

    Rasmita Panigrahi; Trilochan Rout

    2012-01-01

    Classifying nodes in a network is a task with wide range of applications .it can be particularly useful in epidemics detection .Many resources are invested in the task of epidemics and precisely allow human investigators to work more efficiently. This work creates random and scale- free graphs the simulations with varying relative infectiousness and graph size performed. By using computer simulations it should be possible to model such epidemic Phenomena and to better understand the role play...

  9. Gastrointestinal Traumatic Injuries: Gastrointestinal Perforation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Revell, Maria A; Pugh, Marcia A; McGhee, Melanie

    2018-03-01

    The abdomen is a big place even in a small person. Gastrointestinal trauma can result in injury to the stomach, small bowel, colon, or rectum. Traumatic causes include blunt or penetrating trauma, such as gunshot wounds, stabbings, motor vehicle collisions, and crush injuries. Nontraumatic causes include appendicitis, Crohn disease, cancer, diverticulitis, ulcerative colitis, blockage of the bowel, and chemotherapy. The mechanism of injury will affect both the nature and severity of any resulting injuries. Treatment must address the critical and emergent nature of these injuries as well as issues that affect all trauma situations, which include management of hemodynamic instability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Epidemic spreading on dual-structure networks with mobile agents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Yiyang; Zhou, Yinzuo

    2017-02-01

    The rapid development of modern society continually transforms the social structure which leads to an increasingly distinct dual structure of higher population density in urban areas and lower density in rural areas. Such structure may induce distinctive spreading behavior of epidemics which does not happen in a single type structure. In this paper, we study the epidemic spreading of mobile agents on dual structure networks based on SIRS model. First, beyond the well known epidemic threshold for generic epidemic model that when the infection rate is below the threshold a pertinent infectious disease will die out, we find the other epidemic threshold which appears when the infection rate of a disease is relatively high. This feature of two thresholds for the SIRS model may lead to the elimination of infectious disease when social network has either high population density or low population density. Interestingly, however, we find that when a high density area is connected to a low density may cause persistent spreading of the infectious disease, even though the same disease will die out when it spreads in each single area. This phenomenon indicates the critical role of the connection between the two areas which could radically change the behavior of spreading dynamics. Our findings, therefore, provide new understanding of epidemiology pertinent to the characteristic modern social structure and have potential to develop controlling strategies accordingly.

  11. Dynamics of epidemics outbreaks in heterogeneous populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brockmann, Dirk; Morales-Gallardo, Alejandro; Geisel, Theo

    2007-03-01

    The dynamics of epidemic outbreaks have been investigated in recent years within two alternative theoretical paradigms. The key parameter of mean field type of models such as the SIR model is the basic reproduction number R0, the average number of secondary infections caused by one infected individual. Recently, scale free network models have received much attention as they account for the high variability in the number of social contacts involved. These models predict an infinite basic reproduction number in some cases. We investigate the impact of heterogeneities of contact rates in a generic model for epidemic outbreaks. We present a system in which both the time periods of being infectious and the time periods between transmissions are Poissonian processes. The heterogeneities are introduced by means of strongly variable contact rates. In contrast to scale free network models we observe a finite basic reproduction number and, counterintuitively a smaller overall epidemic outbreak as compared to the homogeneous system. Our study thus reveals that heterogeneities in contact rates do not necessarily facilitate the spread to infectious disease but may well attenuate it.

  12. Simulating individual-based models of epidemics in hierarchical networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Quax, R.; Bader, D.A.; Sloot, P.M.A.

    2009-01-01

    Current mathematical modeling methods for the spreading of infectious diseases are too simplified and do not scale well. We present the Simulator of Epidemic Evolution in Complex Networks (SEECN), an efficient simulator of detailed individual-based models by parameterizing separate dynamics

  13. Information Spreading in Epidemics and in Communication Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Uekermann, Florian Philipp

    The PhD thesis revolves mainly around models of disease spreading and human behavior. We present models for different epidemic patterns of infectious diseases. This includes investigations of the trajectory of the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West-Africa, influenza evolution and the seasonal dynamics...

  14. Ciguatera fish poisoning. A southern California epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barton, E D; Tanner, P; Turchen, S G; Tunget, C L; Manoguerra, A; Clark, R F

    1995-01-01

    Ciguatera fish poisoning results from the bioconcentration of a variety of toxins produced by marine dinoflagellates. Signs and symptoms vary widely, but it usually presents as gastrointestinal and neurologic complaints beginning shortly after the ingestion of fish containing the toxins. Symptoms may persist for months and sometimes even years. Although cases have been reported throughout the United States, epidemics are most common along tropical and subtropical coasts and usually involve the ingestion of large carnivorous fish. We review the literature and report the first epidemic of 25 cases of ciguatera fish poisoning presenting to area hospitals in Southern California that were successfully tracked by the Department of Health Services and isolated to fish caught off the coast of Baja California, Mexico. Images Figure 1. PMID:7667980

  15. A simple model for behaviour change in epidemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brauer Fred

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background People change their behaviour during an epidemic. Infectious members of a population may reduce the number of contacts they make with other people because of the physical effects of their illness and possibly because of public health announcements asking them to do so in order to decrease the number of new infections, while susceptible members of the population may reduce the number of contacts they make in order to try to avoid becoming infected. Methods We consider a simple epidemic model in which susceptible and infectious members respond to a disease outbreak by reducing contacts by different fractions and analyze the effect of such contact reductions on the size of the epidemic. We assume constant fractional reductions, without attempting to consider the way in which susceptible members might respond to information about the epidemic. Results We are able to derive upper and lower bounds for the final size of an epidemic, both for simple and staged progression models. Conclusions The responses of uninfected and infected individuals in a disease outbreak are different, and this difference affects estimates of epidemic size.

  16. [A prognostic model of a cholera epidemic].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boev, B V; Bondarenko, V M; Prokop'eva, N V; San Román, R T; Raygoza-Anaya, M; García de Alba, R

    1994-01-01

    A new model for the prognostication of cholera epidemic on the territory of a large city is proposed. This model reflects the characteristic feature of contacting infection by sensitive individuals due to the preservation of Vibrio cholerae in their water habitat. The mathematical model of the epidemic quantitatively reflects the processes of the spread of infection by kinetic equations describing the interaction of the streams of infected persons, the causative agents and susceptible persons. The functions and parameters of the model are linked with the distribution of individuals according to the duration of the incubation period and infectious process, as well as the period of asymptomatic carrier state. The computer realization of the model by means of IBM PC/AT made it possible to study the cholera epidemic which took place in Mexico in 1833. The verified model of the cholera epidemic was used for the prognostication of the possible spread of this infection in Guadalajara, taking into account changes in the epidemiological situation and the size of the population, as well as improvements in sanitary and hygienic conditions, in the city.

  17. New technologies in predicting, preventing and controlling emerging infectious diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christaki, Eirini

    2015-01-01

    Surveillance of emerging infectious diseases is vital for the early identification of public health threats. Emergence of novel infections is linked to human factors such as population density, travel and trade and ecological factors like climate change and agricultural practices. A wealth of new technologies is becoming increasingly available for the rapid molecular identification of pathogens but also for the more accurate monitoring of infectious disease activity. Web-based surveillance tools and epidemic intelligence methods, used by all major public health institutions, are intended to facilitate risk assessment and timely outbreak detection. In this review, we present new methods for regional and global infectious disease surveillance and advances in epidemic modeling aimed to predict and prevent future infectious diseases threats.

  18. Extinction times of epidemic outbreaks in networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holme, Petter

    2013-01-01

    In the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model of disease spreading, the time to extinction of the epidemics happens at an intermediate value of the per-contact transmission probability. Too contagious infections burn out fast in the population. Infections that are not contagious enough die out before they spread to a large fraction of people. We characterize how the maximal extinction time in SIR simulations on networks depend on the network structure. For example we find that the average distances in isolated components, weighted by the component size, is a good predictor of the maximal time to extinction. Furthermore, the transmission probability giving the longest outbreaks is larger than, but otherwise seemingly independent of, the epidemic threshold.

  19. Extinction times of epidemic outbreaks in networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petter Holme

    Full Text Available In the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR model of disease spreading, the time to extinction of the epidemics happens at an intermediate value of the per-contact transmission probability. Too contagious infections burn out fast in the population. Infections that are not contagious enough die out before they spread to a large fraction of people. We characterize how the maximal extinction time in SIR simulations on networks depend on the network structure. For example we find that the average distances in isolated components, weighted by the component size, is a good predictor of the maximal time to extinction. Furthermore, the transmission probability giving the longest outbreaks is larger than, but otherwise seemingly independent of, the epidemic threshold.

  20. Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ren, Guangming, E-mail: wangxy@dlut.edu.cn, E-mail: ren-guang-ming@163.com [School of Electronic and Information, Guangdong Polytechnic Normal University, Guangzhou 510665 (China); Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China); Wang, Xingyuan, E-mail: wangxy@dlut.edu.cn, E-mail: ren-guang-ming@163.com [Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China)

    2014-06-15

    The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold q{sub c}. The epidemic will survive when q > q{sub c} and die when q < q{sub c}. These results can help understanding the impacts of human travel on the epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure.

  1. Epidemic spread in bipartite network by considering risk awareness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, She; Sun, Mei; Ampimah, Benjamin Chris; Han, Dun

    2018-02-01

    Human awareness plays an important role in the spread of infectious diseases and the control of propagation patterns. Exploring the interplay between human awareness and epidemic spreading is a topic that has been receiving increasing attention. Considering the fact, some well-known diseases only spread between different species we propose a theoretical analysis of the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic spread from the perspective of bipartite network and risk aversion. Using mean field theory, the epidemic threshold is calculated theoretically. Simulation results are consistent with the proposed analytic model. The results show that, the final infection density is negative linear with the value of individuals' risk awareness. Therefore, the epidemic spread could be effectively suppressed by improving individuals' risk awareness.

  2. Drought and Epidemic Typhus, Central Mexico, 1655–1918

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acuna-Soto, Rudofo; Stahle, David W.

    2014-01-01

    Epidemic typhus is an infectious disease caused by the bacterium Rickettsia prowazekii and transmitted by body lice (Pediculus humanus corporis). This disease occurs where conditions are crowded and unsanitary. This disease accompanied war, famine, and poverty for centuries. Historical and proxy climate data indicate that drought was a major factor in the development of typhus epidemics in Mexico during 1655–1918. Evidence was found for 22 large typhus epidemics in central Mexico, and tree-ring chronologies were used to reconstruct moisture levels over central Mexico for the past 500 years. Below-average tree growth, reconstructed drought, and low crop yields occurred during 19 of these 22 typhus epidemics. Historical documents describe how drought created large numbers of environmental refugees that fled the famine-stricken countryside for food relief in towns. These refugees often ended up in improvised shelters in which crowding encouraged conditions necessary for spread of typhus. PMID:24564928

  3. Dynamics of epidemic diseases on a growing adaptive network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demirel, Güven; Barter, Edmund; Gross, Thilo

    2017-02-10

    The study of epidemics on static networks has revealed important effects on disease prevalence of network topological features such as the variance of the degree distribution, i.e. the distribution of the number of neighbors of nodes, and the maximum degree. Here, we analyze an adaptive network where the degree distribution is not independent of epidemics but is shaped through disease-induced dynamics and mortality in a complex interplay. We study the dynamics of a network that grows according to a preferential attachment rule, while nodes are simultaneously removed from the network due to disease-induced mortality. We investigate the prevalence of the disease using individual-based simulations and a heterogeneous node approximation. Our results suggest that in this system in the thermodynamic limit no epidemic thresholds exist, while the interplay between network growth and epidemic spreading leads to exponential networks for any finite rate of infectiousness when the disease persists.

  4. Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ren, Guangming; Wang, Xingyuan

    2014-01-01

    The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold q c . The epidemic will survive when q > q c and die when q  c . These results can help understanding the impacts of human travel on the epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure

  5. Extreme weather events and infectious disease outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMichael, Anthony J

    2015-01-01

    Human-driven climatic changes will fundamentally influence patterns of human health, including infectious disease clusters and epidemics following extreme weather events. Extreme weather events are projected to increase further with the advance of human-driven climate change. Both recent and historical experiences indicate that infectious disease outbreaks very often follow extreme weather events, as microbes, vectors and reservoir animal hosts exploit the disrupted social and environmental conditions of extreme weather events. This review article examines infectious disease risks associated with extreme weather events; it draws on recent experiences including Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the 2010 Pakistan mega-floods, and historical examples from previous centuries of epidemics and 'pestilence' associated with extreme weather disasters and climatic changes. A fuller understanding of climatic change, the precursors and triggers of extreme weather events and health consequences is needed in order to anticipate and respond to the infectious disease risks associated with human-driven climate change. Post-event risks to human health can be constrained, nonetheless, by reducing background rates of persistent infection, preparatory action such as coordinated disease surveillance and vaccination coverage, and strengthened disaster response. In the face of changing climate and weather conditions, it is critically important to think in ecological terms about the determinants of health, disease and death in human populations.

  6. Gastrointestinal tract

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    James, R.D.; Pointon, R.C.S.

    1985-01-01

    At the time of writing, radiotherapy is of only minor use in the management of adenocarcinoma of the gastrointestinal tract, for a number of reasons. First, an exploratory laparotomy is generally needed for diagnosis, and if possible the tumour is resected or by-passed. Second, radiotherapy planning in the upper abdomen is complicated by the proximity of small bowel, kidneys, and spinal cord. Third, it has been assumed that these tumours cause death largely as a result of distant metastases, so that local radiotherapy, even if effective, would contribute little to survival. The continued interest in radiotherapy for this group of tumours arises out of the poor survival rates following surgery, which have not changed for many years, and the morbidity associated with their resection. It was hoped that the addition of cytotoxic agents to radical surgery would improve survival rates in carcinoma of the stomach and intraperitoneal colon. Despite a large number of well-organised prospective trials, using a variety of cytotoxic drugs, there is so far no evidence that the addition of chemotherapy to radical surgery improves survival for either tumour site. The authors are therefore faced with a group of tumours which are not only common, but commonly fatal and many surgeons would accept that a new approach using modern radiotherapy techniques may well be justified. There is evidence that this movement is already taking place for carcinoma of the rectum, and the indications for radiotherapy in this condition will be dealt with below. Before considering these it is worth dwelling briefly on recent changes in surgical and radiological practices which, if they fulfil expectations, might allow radiotherapy to be used for carcinoma of the colon, stomach, and pancreas as it is now used for rectal cancer

  7. [Epidemiology of imported infectious diseases in China, 2013-2016].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Y L; Wang, X; Ren, R Q; Zhou, L; Tu, W W; Ni, D X; Li, Q; Feng, Z J; Zhang, Y P

    2017-11-10

    Objective: To describe the epidemic of imported infectious diseases in China between 2013 and 2016, including the kinds of infectious diseases, affected provinces, source countries and the epidemiological characteristics, and provide scientific information for the prevention and control of imported infectious diseases. Methods: Data of cases of imported infectious diseases in China from 2013 to 2016 were collected from national information reporting system of infectious diseases, Microsoft Excel 2010 and SPSS 18.0 were used to conduct data cleaning and analysis. Results: From 2013 to 2016, a total of 16 206 imported cases of infectious diseases were reported in China. Of all the cases, 83.12% (13 471 cases) were malaria cases, followed by dengue fever (2 628 cases, 16.22%). The majority of the imported cases were males (14 522 cases, 89.61%). Most cases were aged 20-50 years. Except Zika virus disease and yellow fever, which were mainly reported before and after spring festival, other imported infectious diseases mainly occurred in summer and autumn. The epidemic in affected provinces varied with the types of infectious diseases, and Yunnan reported the largest case number of imported infectious diseases, followed by Jiangsu, Guangxi and Guangdong. The imported cases were mainly from Asian countries, such as Burma, and African countries, such as Angola, Equatorial Guinea and Ghana, which also varied with the types of infectious diseases. Conclusions: We should pay more attention to imported infectious diseases and strengthen the prevention and control measures in our country. In order to reduce the incidence of imported infectious diseases, the health education should be enforced for persons who plan to travel abroad and the active surveillance should be strengthened for returned travelers.

  8. A stochastic SIS epidemic model with vaccination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Boqiang; Shan, Meijing; Zhang, Qimin; Wang, Weiming

    2017-11-01

    In this paper, we investigate the basic features of an SIS type infectious disease model with varying population size and vaccinations in presence of environment noise. By applying the Markov semigroup theory, we propose a stochastic reproduction number R0s which can be seen as a threshold parameter to utilize in identifying the stochastic extinction and persistence: If R0s disease-free absorbing set for the stochastic epidemic model, which implies that disease dies out with probability one; while if R0s > 1, under some mild extra conditions, the SDE model has an endemic stationary distribution which results in the stochastic persistence of the infectious disease. The most interesting finding is that large environmental noise can suppress the outbreak of the disease.

  9. CT evaluation of infectious colitis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horiki, Noriyuki; Maruyama, Masataka; Fujita, Yoshiyuki; Suzuki, Yuko; Tanaka, Tsuyoshi; Imoto, Ichiro; Adachi, Yukihiko

    2002-01-01

    Computed tomography (CT) is useful for evaluating the diagnosis of gastrointestinal disease, such as infectious colitis, in patients with severe pain and bloody diarrhea. During the 7 years between November 1993 and October 2000, 34 patients with infectious colitis (18 male, 16 female; mean age 42±19 yrs), received emergency CT and colonoscopy because of severe abdominal pain and dysentery. The following organisms were isolated: pathogenic Escherichia coli (12), 6 of which were O157: H7 (O-157), Salmonella species (11), Campylobacter species (5), Vibrio parahaemolyticus (3), Yersinia enterocolotica (2) and Shigella species (1). Thickening of the intestinal wall greater than 10 mm was seen in the ascending colon in the 6 cases with E. coli O157, in 5/11 cases with Salmonella, 4/5 with Campylobacter and 1/6 with non-O157 pathogenic E. Coli. marked intestinal wall thickening, greater than 20 mm, was seen in the ascending colon of the 4 of the patients with an O-157 infection. In all patients with O-157 colitis, slight ascites was noted in the pelvic space. In additions, ascites was also seen in 3/13 patients with Salmonella and 1/5 patients with Campylobacter colitis. The CT findings, in the patients with infectious colitis, are non-specific but knowledge and recognition of the findings will help in patient evaluation and proper treatment. (author)

  10. CT evaluation of infectious colitis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Horiki, Noriyuki; Maruyama, Masataka; Fujita, Yoshiyuki; Suzuki, Yuko [Saint Luke' s International Hospital, Tokyo (Japan); Tanaka, Tsuyoshi; Imoto, Ichiro [National Mie Chuo Hospital, Hisai (Japan); Adachi, Yukihiko [Mie Univ., Tsu (Japan). School of Medicine

    2002-08-01

    Computed tomography (CT) is useful for evaluating the diagnosis of gastrointestinal disease, such as infectious colitis, in patients with severe pain and bloody diarrhea. During the 7 years between November 1993 and October 2000, 34 patients with infectious colitis (18 male, 16 female; mean age 42{+-}19 yrs), received emergency CT and colonoscopy because of severe abdominal pain and dysentery. The following organisms were isolated: pathogenic Escherichia coli (12), 6 of which were O157: H7 (O-157), Salmonella species (11), Campylobacter species (5), Vibrio parahaemolyticus (3), Yersinia enterocolotica (2) and Shigella species (1). Thickening of the intestinal wall greater than 10 mm was seen in the ascending colon in the 6 cases with E. coli O157, in 5/11 cases with Salmonella, 4/5 with Campylobacter and 1/6 with non-O157 pathogenic E. Coli. marked intestinal wall thickening, greater than 20 mm, was seen in the ascending colon of the 4 of the patients with an O-157 infection. In all patients with O-157 colitis, slight ascites was noted in the pelvic space. In additions, ascites was also seen in 3/13 patients with Salmonella and 1/5 patients with Campylobacter colitis. The CT findings, in the patients with infectious colitis, are non-specific but knowledge and recognition of the findings will help in patient evaluation and proper treatment. (author)

  11. Peculiarities of infectious diseases course accompanied by quinsy syndrome in children (data from children infectious hospital

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ovchinnikova T.A.

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The research goal is to study morbidity dynamics for the period of 15 years and to determine clinical signs that accompany quinsy syndrome (diphtheria, infectious mononucleosis, scarlet fever, quinsy. Retrospective study analysis of annual reports and case-histories was carried out. 323 cases of infectious diseases accompanied by quinsy syndrome were examined. Clinical and epidemic signs of diseases were determined during the period of morbidity raise. The current clinical course of diseases was characterized in detail. The significant percentage of renal complications in case of pharyngonasal cavity lesion was shown

  12. Infectious Diseases Continued to be the World's Core Challenge

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    Plague epidemic is going on in Madagascar. Many countries are in constant worries that such deadly infectious diseases might be carried from one part of the world to them (3). Although member countries signed an international agreement to report outbreaks promptly to the. World Health Organization and take steps to.

  13. Comparing methods to quantify experimental transmission of infectious agents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Velthuis, A.G.J.; Jong, de M.C.M.; Bree, de J.

    2007-01-01

    Transmission of an infectious agent can be quantified from experimental data using the transient-state (TS) algorithm. The TS algorithm is based on the stochastic SIR model and provides a time-dependent probability distribution over the number of infected individuals during an epidemic, with no need

  14. Double burden of noncommunicable and infectious diseases in developing countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bygbjerg, I C

    2012-01-01

    On top of the unfinished agenda of infectious diseases in low- and middle-income countries, development, industrialization, urbanization, investment, and aging are drivers of an epidemic of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). Malnutrition and infection in early life increase the risk of chronic NCDs...... for limited funds, is an important policy consideration requiring new thinking and approaches....

  15. Viral shedding and emission of airborne infectious bursal disease virus from a broiler room

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhao, Y.; Aarnink, A.J.A.; Cambra-Lopez, M.; Fabri, T.

    2013-01-01

    1. The significance of airborne transmission in epidemics of infectious diseases in the livestock production industry remains unclear. The study therefore investigated the shedding route (faeces vs. exhaled air) of a vaccine strain of infectious bursal disease virus (IBDV) by broilers and the

  16. Emerging and Neglected Infectious Diseases: Insights, Advances, and Challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nii-Trebi, Nicholas Israel

    2017-01-01

    Infectious diseases are a significant burden on public health and economic stability of societies all over the world. They have for centuries been among the leading causes of death and disability and presented growing challenges to health security and human progress. The threat posed by infectious diseases is further deepened by the continued emergence of new, unrecognized, and old infectious disease epidemics of global impact. Over the past three and half decades at least 30 new infectious agents affecting humans have emerged, most of which are zoonotic and their origins have been shown to correlate significantly with socioeconomic, environmental, and ecological factors. As these factors continue to increase, putting people in increased contact with the disease causing pathogens, there is concern that infectious diseases may continue to present a formidable challenge. Constant awareness and pursuance of effective strategies for controlling infectious diseases and disease emergence thus remain crucial. This review presents current updates on emerging and neglected infectious diseases and highlights the scope, dynamics, and advances in infectious disease management with particular focus on WHO top priority emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) and neglected tropical infectious diseases.

  17. Configuring the autism epidemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seeberg, Jens; Christensen, Fie Lund Lindegaard

    2017-01-01

    Autism has been described as an epidemic, but this claim is contested and may point to an awareness epidemic, i.e. changes in the definition of what autism is and more attention being invested in diagnosis leading to a rise in registered cases. The sex ratio of children diagnosed with autism...... is skewed in favour of boys, and girls with autism tend to be diagnosed much later than boys. Building and further developing the notion of ‘configuration’ of epidemics, this article explores the configuration of autism in Denmark, with a particular focus on the health system and social support to families...... with children diagnosed with autism, seen from a parental perspective. The article points to diagnostic dynamics that contribute to explaining why girls with autism are not diagnosed as easily as boys. We unfold these dynamics through the analysis of a case of a Danish family with autism....

  18. The chronic gastrointestinal manifestations of Chagas disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nilce Mitiko Matsuda

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Chagas disease is an infectious disease caused by the protozoan Trypanosoma cruzi. The disease mainly affects the nervous system, digestive system and heart. The objective of this review is to revise the literature and summarize the main chronic gastrointestinal manifestations of Chagas disease. The chronic gastrointestinal manifestations of Chagas disease are mainly a result of enteric nervous system impairment caused by T. cruzi infection. The anatomical locations most commonly described to be affected by Chagas disease are salivary glands, esophagus, lower esophageal sphincter, stomach, small intestine, colon, gallbladder and biliary tree. Chagas disease has also been studied in association with Helicobacter pylori infection, interstitial cells of Cajal and the incidence of gastrointestinal cancer.

  19. Discrete stochastic analogs of Erlang epidemic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Getz, Wayne M; Dougherty, Eric R

    2018-12-01

    Erlang differential equation models of epidemic processes provide more realistic disease-class transition dynamics from susceptible (S) to exposed (E) to infectious (I) and removed (R) categories than the ubiquitous SEIR model. The latter is itself is at one end of the spectrum of Erlang SE[Formula: see text]I[Formula: see text]R models with [Formula: see text] concatenated E compartments and [Formula: see text] concatenated I compartments. Discrete-time models, however, are computationally much simpler to simulate and fit to epidemic outbreak data than continuous-time differential equations, and are also much more readily extended to include demographic and other types of stochasticity. Here we formulate discrete-time deterministic analogs of the Erlang models, and their stochastic extension, based on a time-to-go distributional principle. Depending on which distributions are used (e.g. discretized Erlang, Gamma, Beta, or Uniform distributions), we demonstrate that our formulation represents both a discretization of Erlang epidemic models and generalizations thereof. We consider the challenges of fitting SE[Formula: see text]I[Formula: see text]R models and our discrete-time analog to data (the recent outbreak of Ebola in Liberia). We demonstrate that the latter performs much better than the former; although confining fits to strict SEIR formulations reduces the numerical challenges, but sacrifices best-fit likelihood scores by at least 7%.

  20. Impacts of clustering on interacting epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Bing; Cao, Lang; Suzuki, Hideyuki; Aihara, Kazuyuki

    2012-07-07

    Since community structures in real networks play a major role for the epidemic spread, we therefore explore two interacting diseases spreading in networks with community structures. As a network model with community structures, we propose a random clique network model composed of different orders of cliques. We further assume that each disease spreads only through one type of cliques; this assumption corresponds to the issue that two diseases spread inside communities and outside them. Considering the relationship between the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and the bond percolation theory, we apply this theory to clique random networks under the assumption that the occupation probability is clique-type dependent, which is consistent with the observation that infection rates inside a community and outside it are different, and obtain a number of statistical properties for this model. Two interacting diseases that compete the same hosts are also investigated, which leads to a natural generalization of analyzing an arbitrary number of infectious diseases. For two-disease dynamics, the clustering effect is hypersensitive to the cohesiveness and concentration of cliques; this illustrates the impacts of clustering and the composition of subgraphs in networks on epidemic behavior. The analysis of coexistence/bistability regions provides significant insight into the relationship between the network structure and the potential epidemic prevalence. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Invited review: Epidemics on social networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. N. Kuperman

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Since its first formulations almost a century ago, mathematical models fordisease spreading contributed to understand, evaluate and control the epidemic processes.They promoted a dramatic change in how epidemiologists thought of the propagation of infectious diseases.In the last decade, when the traditional epidemiological models seemed to be exhausted, new types of models were developed.These new models incorporated concepts from graph theory to describe and model the underlying social structure.Many of these works merely produced a more detailed extension of the previous results, but some otherstriggered a completely new paradigm in the mathematical study of epidemic processes. In this review, we will introduce the basicconcepts of epidemiology, epidemic modeling and networks, to finally provide a brief description of the mostrelevant results in the field.Received: 6 April 2013, Accepted: 3 June 2013; Edited by: G. Mindlin; DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4279/PIP.050003Cite as: M N Kuperman, Papers in Physics 5, 050003 (2013

  2. Infectious mononucleosis #3 (image)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Infectious mononucleosis is caused by the Epstein-Barr virus. It is a viral infection causing high temperature, sore throat, and swollen lymph glands. Infectious mononucleosis can be contagious if the infected person comes ...

  3. Zinc and gastrointestinal disease

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Sonja; Skrovanek; Katherine; DiGuilio; Robert; Bailey; William; Huntington; Ryan; Urbas; Barani; Mayilvaganan; Giancarlo; Mercogliano; James; M; Mullin

    2014-01-01

    This review is a current summary of the role that both zinc deficiency and zinc supplementation can play in the etiology and therapy of a wide range of gastrointestinal diseases. The recent literature describing zinc action on gastrointestinal epithelial tight junctions and epithelial barrier function is described. Zinc enhancement of gastrointestinal epithelial barrier function may figure prominently in its potential therapeutic action in several gastrointestinal diseases.

  4. Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Policy The Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic The Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic Published: Nov 29, 2017 Facebook Twitter ... 2001-FY 2018 Request The Global Response to HIV/AIDS International efforts to combat HIV began in ...

  5. Networked SIS Epidemics With Awareness

    KAUST Repository

    Paarporn, Keith; Eksin, Ceyhun; Weitz, Joshua S.; Shamma, Jeff S.

    2017-01-01

    We study a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic process over a static contact network where the nodes have partial information about the epidemic state. They react by limiting their interactions with their neighbors when they believe

  6. epidemic teach us?

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    frequently brings shame, fear and guilt: dealing with this for some will begin a process of .... 'AZT treatment will have a limited effect on the epidemic, as we are targeting ... others to make the decisions that control my life. It is ironic that a society ...

  7. The Obesity Epidemic

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2011-07-18

    Learn about obesity and the community initiatives taking place to prevent and reduce this epidemic.  Created: 7/18/2011 by National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Division of Nutrition, Physical Activity and Obesity.   Date Released: 7/18/2011.

  8. Kanpur epidemic: Time course

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The first peak was related to water contamination which began in December 1990. The second peak was related to failure of municipal authorities to chlorinate water during the 2nd week of February 1991. The epidemic came under control quickly after water contamination was controlled, providing confirmation for role of ...

  9. Trauma - the malignant epidemic

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    national problem and the term 'malignant epidemic' is more applicable. These two ... In 1984 it stood at just over 400 000 per annum and today the figure is close to ... breadwinner, loss of productivity, expenses of rehabilitation and care of the ...

  10. Epidemic spreading induced by diversity of agents' mobility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Jie; Chung, Ning Ning; Chew, Lock Yue; Lai, Choy Heng

    2012-08-01

    In this paper, we study the impact of the preference of an individual for public transport on the spread of infectious disease, through a quantity known as the public mobility. Our theoretical and numerical results based on a constructed model reveal that if the average public mobility of the agents is fixed, an increase in the diversity of the agents' public mobility reduces the epidemic threshold, beyond which an enhancement in the rate of infection is observed. Our findings provide an approach to improve the resistance of a society against infectious disease, while preserving the utilization rate of the public transportation system.

  11. Cyber Epidemic Models with Dependences

    OpenAIRE

    Xu, Maochao; Da, Gaofeng; Xu, Shouhuai

    2016-01-01

    Studying models of cyber epidemics over arbitrary complex networks can deepen our understanding of cyber security from a whole-system perspective. In this paper, we initiate the investigation of cyber epidemic models that accommodate the {\\em dependences} between the cyber attack events. Due to the notorious difficulty in dealing with such dependences, essentially all existing cyber epidemic models have assumed them away. Specifically, we introduce the idea of Copulas into cyber epidemic mode...

  12. Hepatitis E epidemics in India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The first well recorded epidemic was in 1955-56 here in Delhi with nearly 30000 cases. Large outbreaks occurred in 1978 in Kashmir. My interest in this disease began in 1991 during investigations into a large epidemic of hepatitis E in Kanpur that my mentor, later Prof SR Naik, and I undertook. I will use this epidemic as an ...

  13. Infectious Risks of Traveling Abroad.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lin H; Blair, Barbra M

    2015-08-01

    A popular leisure activity, international travel can be associated with some infections. The most common travel-related illnesses appear to be gastrointestinal, dermatologic, respiratory, and systemic febrile syndromes. The pretravel medical consultation includes immunizations, malaria chemoprophylaxis, self-treatment for traveler's diarrhea, and advice on the prevention of a myriad of other infectious causes including dengue, chikungunya, rickettsiosis, leptospirosis, schistosomiasis, and strongyloidiasis. Travel to locations experiencing outbreaks such as Ebola virus disease, Middle East respiratory syndrome, avian influenza, and chikungunya call for specific alerts on preventive strategies. After travel, evaluation of an ill traveler must explore details of exposure, including destinations visited; activities; ingestion of contaminated food or drinks; contact with vectors, animals, fresh water, or blood and body fluids; and other potential exposures. Knowledge of the geographic distribution of infectious diseases is important in generating the differential diagnoses and testing accordingly. Empiric treatment is sometimes necessary when suspicion of a certain diagnosis is strong and confirmatory tests are delayed or lacking, particularly for infections that are rapidly progressive (for example, malaria) or for which timing of testing is prolonged (such as leptospirosis).

  14. Steady States in SIRS Epidemical Model of Mobile Individuals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Duanming; He Minhua; Yu Xiaoling; Pan Guijun; Sun Hongzhang; Su Xiangying; Sun Fan; Yin Yanping; Li Rui; Liu Dan

    2006-01-01

    We consider an epidemical model within socially interacting mobile individuals to study the behaviors of steady states of epidemic propagation in 2D networks. Using mean-field approximation and large scale simulations, we recover the usual epidemic behavior with critical thresholds δ c and p c below which infectious disease dies out. For the population density δ far above δ c , it is found that there is linear relationship between contact rate λ and the population density δ in the main. At the same time, the result obtained from mean-field approximation is compared with our numerical result, and it is found that these two results are similar by and large but not completely the same.

  15. Steady States in SIRS Epidemical Model of Mobile Individuals

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Duan-Ming; LIU Dan; HE Min-Hua; YU Xiao-Ling; PAN Gui-Jun; SUN Hong-Zhang; SU Xiang-Ying; SUN Fan; YIN Yan-Ping; LI Rui

    2006-01-01

    We consider an epidemical model within socially interacting mobile individuals to study the behaviors of steady statesof epidemic propagation in 2D networks. Using mean-field approximation and large scale simulations, we recover the usual epidemic behavior with critical thresholds δc and pc below which infectious disease dies out. For the population density δ far above δc, it is found that there is linear relationship between contact rate λ and the population density δ in the main. At the same time, the result obtained from mean-field approximation is compared with our numerical result, and it is found that these two results are similar by and large but not completely the same.

  16. Sensitivity analysis of an individual-based model for simulation of influenza epidemics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elaine O Nsoesie

    Full Text Available Individual-based epidemiology models are increasingly used in the study of influenza epidemics. Several studies on influenza dynamics and evaluation of intervention measures have used the same incubation and infectious period distribution parameters based on the natural history of influenza. A sensitivity analysis evaluating the influence of slight changes to these parameters (in addition to the transmissibility would be useful for future studies and real-time modeling during an influenza pandemic.In this study, we examined individual and joint effects of parameters and ranked parameters based on their influence on the dynamics of simulated epidemics. We also compared the sensitivity of the model across synthetic social networks for Montgomery County in Virginia and New York City (and surrounding metropolitan regions with demographic and rural-urban differences. In addition, we studied the effects of changing the mean infectious period on age-specific epidemics. The research was performed from a public health standpoint using three relevant measures: time to peak, peak infected proportion and total attack rate. We also used statistical methods in the design and analysis of the experiments. The results showed that: (i minute changes in the transmissibility and mean infectious period significantly influenced the attack rate; (ii the mean of the incubation period distribution appeared to be sufficient for determining its effects on the dynamics of epidemics; (iii the infectious period distribution had the strongest influence on the structure of the epidemic curves; (iv the sensitivity of the individual-based model was consistent across social networks investigated in this study and (v age-specific epidemics were sensitive to changes in the mean infectious period irrespective of the susceptibility of the other age groups. These findings suggest that small changes in some of the disease model parameters can significantly influence the uncertainty

  17. A social contagious model of the obesity epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, He; Yan, Zhijun; Chen, Yahong; Liu, Fangyan

    2016-11-01

    Obesity has been recognized as a global epidemic by WHO, followed by many empirical evidences to prove its infectiousness. However, the inter-person spreading dynamics of obesity are seldom studied. A distinguishing feature of the obesity epidemic is that it is driven by a social contagion process which cannot be perfectly described by the infectious disease models. In this paper, we propose a novel belief decision model based on the famous Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence to model obesity epidemic as the competing spread of two obesity-related behaviors: physical inactivity and physical activity. The transition of health states is described by an SIS model. Results reveal the existence of obesity epidemic threshold, above which obesity is quickly eradicated. When increasing the fading level of information spread, enlarging the clustering of initial obese seeds, or introducing small-world characteristics into the network topology, the threshold is easily met. Social discrimination against the obese people plays completely different roles in two cases: on one hand, when obesity cannot be eradicated, social discrimination can reduce the number of obese people; on the other hand, when obesity is eradicable, social discrimination may instead cause it breaking out.

  18. Epidemics on interconnected networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickison, Mark; Havlin, S.; Stanley, H. E.

    2012-06-01

    Populations are seldom completely isolated from their environment. Individuals in a particular geographic or social region may be considered a distinct network due to strong local ties but will also interact with individuals in other networks. We study the susceptible-infected-recovered process on interconnected network systems and find two distinct regimes. In strongly coupled network systems, epidemics occur simultaneously across the entire system at a critical infection strength βc, below which the disease does not spread. In contrast, in weakly coupled network systems, a mixed phase exists below βc of the coupled network system, where an epidemic occurs in one network but does not spread to the coupled network. We derive an expression for the network and disease parameters that allow this mixed phase and verify it numerically. Public health implications of communities comprising these two classes of network systems are also mentioned.

  19. Post-infectious sequelae of travelers' diarrhea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connor, Bradley A; Riddle, Mark S

    2013-01-01

    Travelers' diarrhea (TD) has generally been considered a self-limited disorder which resolves more quickly with expeditious and appropriate antibiotic therapy given bacteria are the most frequently identified cause. However, epidemiological, clinical, and basic science evidence identifying a number of chronic health conditions related to these infections has recently emerged which challenges this current paradigm. These include serious and potentially disabling enteric and extra-intestinal long-term complications. Among these are rheumatologic, neurologic, gastrointestinal, renal, and endocrine disorders. This review aims to examine and summarize the current literature pertaining to three of these post-infectious disorders: reactive arthritis, Guillain-Barré syndrome, and post-infectious irritable bowel syndrome and the relationship of these conditions to diarrhea associated with travel as well as to diarrhea associated with gastroenteritis which may not be specifically travel related but relevant by shared microbial pathogens. It is hoped this review will allow clinicians who see travelers to be aware of these post-infectious sequelae thus adding to our body of knowledge in travel medicine. Data for this article were identified by searches of PubMed and MEDLINE, and references from relevant articles using search terms "travelers' diarrhea" "reactive arthritis" "Guillain-Barré syndrome" "Post-Infectious Irritable Bowel Syndrome." Abstracts were included when related to previously published work. A review of the published literature reveals that potential consequences of travelers' diarrhea may extend beyond the acute illness and these post-infectious complications may be more common than currently recognized. In addition since TD is such a common occurrence it would be helpful to be able to identify those who might be at greater risk of post-infectious sequelae in order to target more aggressive prophylactic or therapeutic approaches to such individuals. It is

  20. (Epidemic of bacillary dysentery)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Auger, P.; Pouliot, B.; De Grace, M.; Milot, C.; Lafortune, M.; Bergeron, Z.

    1981-10-01

    An outbreak of bacillary dysentery in 1978 affecting 928 persons, most of whom were living in the village of St-Jacques, PQ, is described. An epidemiologic study suggested the water supply as the source of the infection, and it was established that the water carried by the municipal aqueduct was contaminated by feces containing the causal agent, Shigella sonnei. This epidemic, the largest mentioned in he Canadian medical literature, demonstrates how contagious this infection is.

  1. Nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burke, Stephen J.; Weldon, Derik; Sun, Shiliang; Golzarian, Jafar

    2007-01-01

    Nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NUGB) remains a major medical problem even after advances in medical therapy with gastric acid suppression and cyclooxygenase (COX-2) inhibitors. Although the incidence of upper gastrointestinal bleeding presenting to the emergency room has slightly decreased, similar decreases in overall mortality and rebleeding rate have not been experienced over the last few decades. Many causes of upper gastrointestinal bleeding have been identified and will be reviewed. Endoscopic, radiographic and angiographic modalities continue to form the basis of the diagnosis of upper gastrointestinal bleeding with new research in the field of CT angiography to diagnose gastrointestinal bleeding. Endoscopic and angiographic treatment modalities will be highlighted, emphasizing a multi-modality treatment plan for upper gastrointestinal bleeding. (orig.)

  2. Nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burke, Stephen J.; Weldon, Derik; Sun, Shiliang [University of Iowa, Department of Radiology, Iowa, IA (United States); Golzarian, Jafar [University of Iowa, Department of Radiology, Iowa, IA (United States); University of Iowa, Department of Radiology, Carver College of Medicine, Iowa, IA (United States)

    2007-07-15

    Nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NUGB) remains a major medical problem even after advances in medical therapy with gastric acid suppression and cyclooxygenase (COX-2) inhibitors. Although the incidence of upper gastrointestinal bleeding presenting to the emergency room has slightly decreased, similar decreases in overall mortality and rebleeding rate have not been experienced over the last few decades. Many causes of upper gastrointestinal bleeding have been identified and will be reviewed. Endoscopic, radiographic and angiographic modalities continue to form the basis of the diagnosis of upper gastrointestinal bleeding with new research in the field of CT angiography to diagnose gastrointestinal bleeding. Endoscopic and angiographic treatment modalities will be highlighted, emphasizing a multi-modality treatment plan for upper gastrointestinal bleeding. (orig.)

  3. Infectious diseases in cinema: virus hunters and killer microbes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pappas, Georgios; Seitaridis, Savvas; Akritidis, Nikolaos; Tsianos, Epaminondas

    2003-10-01

    The world of infectious diseases has been rarely presented in the cinema with accuracy. Apart from random biographies of scientists and retellings of stories about great epidemics from the past, most films focus on the dangers presented by outbreaks of unknown agents that originate from acts of bioterrorism, from laboratory accidents, or even from space. We review these films and underline the possible effect that they have on the public's perception of infection--a perception that, when misguided, could prove to be problematic in times of epidemics.

  4. Gastrointestinal nuclear imaging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1988-01-01

    This book contains paper grouped under the headings of: salivary scintigraphy, abscess detection with radionuclides; pediatric gastroenterology; liver spleen, and miscellaneous GI studies: gastrointestinal

  5. Susceptible-infected-recovered epidemics in random networks with population awareness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qingchu; Chen, Shufang

    2017-10-01

    The influence of epidemic information-based awareness on the spread of infectious diseases on networks cannot be ignored. Within the effective degree modeling framework, we discuss the susceptible-infected-recovered model in complex networks with general awareness and general degree distribution. By performing the linear stability analysis, the conditions of epidemic outbreak can be deduced and the results of the previous research can be further expanded. Results show that the local awareness can suppress significantly the epidemic spreading on complex networks via raising the epidemic threshold and such effects are closely related to the formulation of awareness functions. In addition, our results suggest that the recovered information-based awareness has no effect on the critical condition of epidemic outbreak.

  6. Recurrent epidemic cycles driven by intervention in a population of two susceptibility types

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Juanico, Drandreb Earl O

    2014-01-01

    Epidemics have been known to persist in the form of recurrence cycles. Despite intervention efforts through vaccination and targeted social distancing, infectious diseases like influenza continue to appear intermittently over time. I have undertaken an analysis of a stochastic epidemic model to explore the hypothesis that intervention efforts actually drive epidemic cycles. Time series from simulations of the model reveal oscillations exhibiting a similar temporal signature as influenza epidemics. The power-spectral density indicates a resonant frequency, which approximately corresponds to the apparent annual seasonality of influenza in temperate zones. Asymptotic solution to the backward Kolmogorov equation of the dynamics corresponds to an exponentially-decaying mean-exit time as a function of the intervention rate. Intervention must be implemented at a sufficiently high rate to extinguish the infection. The results demonstrate that intervention efforts can induce epidemic cycles, and that the temporal signature of cycles can provide early warning of imminent outbreaks

  7. Interplay between the local information based behavioral responses and the epidemic spreading in complex networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Can; Xie, Jia-Rong; Chen, Han-Shuang; Zhang, Hai-Feng; Tang, Ming

    2015-10-01

    The spreading of an infectious disease can trigger human behavior responses to the disease, which in turn plays a crucial role on the spreading of epidemic. In this study, to illustrate the impacts of the human behavioral responses, a new class of individuals, S(F), is introduced to the classical susceptible-infected-recovered model. In the model, S(F) state represents that susceptible individuals who take self-initiate protective measures to lower the probability of being infected, and a susceptible individual may go to S(F) state with a response rate when contacting an infectious neighbor. Via the percolation method, the theoretical formulas for the epidemic threshold as well as the prevalence of epidemic are derived. Our finding indicates that, with the increasing of the response rate, the epidemic threshold is enhanced and the prevalence of epidemic is reduced. The analytical results are also verified by the numerical simulations. In addition, we demonstrate that, because the mean field method neglects the dynamic correlations, a wrong result based on the mean field method is obtained-the epidemic threshold is not related to the response rate, i.e., the additional S(F) state has no impact on the epidemic threshold.

  8. Epidemics and dimensionality in hierarchical networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Da-Fang; Hui, P. M.; Trimper, Steffen; Zheng, Bo

    2005-07-01

    Epidemiological processes are studied within a recently proposed hierarchical network model using the susceptible-infected-refractory dynamics of an epidemic. Within the network model, a population may be characterized by H independent hierarchies or dimensions, each of which consists of groupings of individuals into layers of subgroups. Detailed numerical simulations reveal that for H>1, global spreading results regardless of the degree of homophily of the individuals forming a social circle. For H=1, a transition from global to local spread occurs as the population becomes decomposed into increasingly homophilous groups. Multiple dimensions in classifying individuals (nodes) thus make a society (computer network) highly susceptible to large-scale outbreaks of infectious diseases (viruses).

  9. Social networks and spreading of epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trimper, Steffen; Zheng, Dafang; Brandau, Marian

    2004-05-01

    Epidemiological processes are studied within a recently proposed social network model using the susceptible-infected-refractory dynamics (SIR) of an epidemic. Within the network model, a population of individuals may be characterized by H independent hierarchies or dimensions, each of which consists of groupings of individuals into layers of subgroups. Detailed numerical simulations reveals that for H > 1, the global spreading results regardless of the degree of homophily α of the individuals forming a social circle. For H = 1, a transition from a global to a local spread occurs as the population becomes decomposed into increasingly homophilous groups. Multiple dimensions in classifying individuals (nodes) thus make a society (computer network) highly susceptible to large scale outbreaks of infectious diseases (viruses). The SIR-model can be extended by the inclusion of waiting times resulting in modified distribution function of the recovered.

  10. Genealogical evidence for epidemics of selfish genes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingvarsson, Par K; Taylor, Douglas R

    2002-08-20

    Some genetic elements spread infectiously in populations by increasing their rate of genetic transmission at the expense of other genes in the genome. These so-called selfish genetic elements comprise a substantial portion of eukaryotic genomes and have long been viewed as a potent evolutionary force. Despite this view, little is known about the evolutionary history of selfish genetic elements in natural populations, or their genetic effects on other portions of the genome. Here we use nuclear and chloroplast gene genealogies in two species of Silene to show the historical pattern of selection on a well known selfish genetic element, cytoplasmic male sterility. We provide evidence that evolution of cytoplasmic male sterility has been characterized by frequent turnovers of mutations in natural populations, thus supporting an epidemic model for the evolution of selfish genes, where new mutations repeatedly arise and rapidly sweep through populations.

  11. On the Use of Human Mobility Proxies for Modeling Epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tizzoni, Michele; Bajardi, Paolo; Decuyper, Adeline; Kon Kam King, Guillaume; Schneider, Christian M.; Blondel, Vincent; Smoreda, Zbigniew; González, Marta C.; Colizza, Vittoria

    2014-01-01

    Human mobility is a key component of large-scale spatial-transmission models of infectious diseases. Correctly modeling and quantifying human mobility is critical for improving epidemic control, but may be hindered by data incompleteness or unavailability. Here we explore the opportunity of using proxies for individual mobility to describe commuting flows and predict the diffusion of an influenza-like-illness epidemic. We consider three European countries and the corresponding commuting networks at different resolution scales, obtained from (i) official census surveys, (ii) proxy mobility data extracted from mobile phone call records, and (iii) the radiation model calibrated with census data. Metapopulation models defined on these countries and integrating the different mobility layers are compared in terms of epidemic observables. We show that commuting networks from mobile phone data capture the empirical commuting patterns well, accounting for more than 87% of the total fluxes. The distributions of commuting fluxes per link from mobile phones and census sources are similar and highly correlated, however a systematic overestimation of commuting traffic in the mobile phone data is observed. This leads to epidemics that spread faster than on census commuting networks, once the mobile phone commuting network is considered in the epidemic model, however preserving to a high degree the order of infection of newly affected locations. Proxies' calibration affects the arrival times' agreement across different models, and the observed topological and traffic discrepancies among mobility sources alter the resulting epidemic invasion patterns. Results also suggest that proxies perform differently in approximating commuting patterns for disease spread at different resolution scales, with the radiation model showing higher accuracy than mobile phone data when the seed is central in the network, the opposite being observed for peripheral locations. Proxies should therefore be

  12. About Infectious Mononucleosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Infectious mononucleosis, also called “mono,” is a contagious disease. Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) is the most common cause of infectious mononucleosis, but other viruses can also cause this disease. It is common among teenagers and young adults, ...

  13. [Infectious diseases research].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carratalà, Jordi; Alcamí, José; Cordero, Elisa; Miró, José M; Ramos, José Manuel

    2008-12-01

    There has been a significant increase in research activity into infectious diseases in Spain in the last few years. The Spanish Society of Infectious Diseases and Clinical Microbiology (SEIMC) currently has ten study groups, with the cooperation of infectious diseases specialists and microbiologists from different centres, with significant research activity. The program of Redes Temáticas de Investigación Cooperativa en Salud (Special Topics Cooperative Health Research Networks) is an appropriate framework for the strategic coordination of research groups from the Spanish autonomous communities. The Spanish Network for Research in Infectious Diseases (REIPI) and the Network for Research in AIDS (RIS) integrate investigators in Infectious Diseases from multiple groups, which continuously perform important research projects. Research using different experimental models in infectious diseases, in numerous institutions, is an important activity in our country. The analysis of the recent scientific production in Infectious Diseases shows that Spain has a good position in the context of the European Union. The research activity in Infectious Diseases carried out in our country is a great opportunity for the training of specialists in this area of knowledge.

  14. Epidemics spread in heterogeneous populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capała, Karol; Dybiec, Bartłomiej

    2017-05-01

    Individuals building populations are subject to variability. This variability affects progress of epidemic outbreaks, because individuals tend to be more or less resistant. Individuals also differ with respect to their recovery rate. Here, properties of the SIR model in inhomogeneous populations are studied. It is shown that a small change in model's parameters, e.g. recovery or infection rate, can substantially change properties of final states which is especially well-visible in distributions of the epidemic size. In addition to the epidemic size and radii distributions, the paper explores first passage time properties of epidemic outbreaks.

  15. Resource allocation for epidemic control in metapopulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ndeffo Mbah, Martial L; Gilligan, Christopher A

    2011-01-01

    Deployment of limited resources is an issue of major importance for decision-making in crisis events. This is especially true for large-scale outbreaks of infectious diseases. Little is known when it comes to identifying the most efficient way of deploying scarce resources for control when disease outbreaks occur in different but interconnected regions. The policy maker is frequently faced with the challenge of optimizing efficiency (e.g. minimizing the burden of infection) while accounting for social equity (e.g. equal opportunity for infected individuals to access treatment). For a large range of diseases described by a simple SIRS model, we consider strategies that should be used to minimize the discounted number of infected individuals during the course of an epidemic. We show that when faced with the dilemma of choosing between socially equitable and purely efficient strategies, the choice of the control strategy should be informed by key measurable epidemiological factors such as the basic reproductive number and the efficiency of the treatment measure. Our model provides new insights for policy makers in the optimal deployment of limited resources for control in the event of epidemic outbreaks at the landscape scale.

  16. Resource allocation for epidemic control in metapopulations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martial L Ndeffo Mbah

    Full Text Available Deployment of limited resources is an issue of major importance for decision-making in crisis events. This is especially true for large-scale outbreaks of infectious diseases. Little is known when it comes to identifying the most efficient way of deploying scarce resources for control when disease outbreaks occur in different but interconnected regions. The policy maker is frequently faced with the challenge of optimizing efficiency (e.g. minimizing the burden of infection while accounting for social equity (e.g. equal opportunity for infected individuals to access treatment. For a large range of diseases described by a simple SIRS model, we consider strategies that should be used to minimize the discounted number of infected individuals during the course of an epidemic. We show that when faced with the dilemma of choosing between socially equitable and purely efficient strategies, the choice of the control strategy should be informed by key measurable epidemiological factors such as the basic reproductive number and the efficiency of the treatment measure. Our model provides new insights for policy makers in the optimal deployment of limited resources for control in the event of epidemic outbreaks at the landscape scale.

  17. An introduction to mathematical modeling of infectious diseases

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Michael Y

    2018-01-01

    This text provides essential modeling skills and methodology for the study of infectious diseases through a one-semester modeling course or directed individual studies.  The book includes mathematical descriptions of epidemiological concepts, and uses classic epidemic models to introduce different mathematical methods in model analysis.  Matlab codes are also included for numerical implementations. It is primarily written for upper undergraduate and beginning graduate students in mathematical sciences who have an interest in mathematical modeling of infectious diseases.  Although written in a rigorous mathematical manner, the style is not unfriendly to non-mathematicians.

  18. Gastrointestinal Infections and Diarrhea

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... parasite, Cryptosporidium , is a common culprit behind diarrhea epidemics in childcare centers and other public places. Cryptosporidium ... take prescription antibiotics to prevent the infection from spreading throughout the body. What Can I Do to ...

  19. Gastrointestinal polyposis in Cowden disease

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kullnig, P.; Steiner, H.; Porsch, G.; Smolle, J.

    1987-01-01

    A case of Cowden disease (multiple hamartoma syndrome) with marked gastrointestinal polyposis is presented. The differential diagnosis of gastrointestinal polyposis syndromes is discussed. (orig.) [de

  20. Epidemic modeling in complex realities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colizza, Vittoria; Barthélemy, Marc; Barrat, Alain; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2007-04-01

    In our global world, the increasing complexity of social relations and transport infrastructures are key factors in the spread of epidemics. In recent years, the increasing availability of computer power has enabled both to obtain reliable data allowing one to quantify the complexity of the networks on which epidemics may propagate and to envision computational tools able to tackle the analysis of such propagation phenomena. These advances have put in evidence the limits of homogeneous assumptions and simple spatial diffusion approaches, and stimulated the inclusion of complex features and heterogeneities relevant in the description of epidemic diffusion. In this paper, we review recent progresses that integrate complex systems and networks analysis with epidemic modelling and focus on the impact of the various complex features of real systems on the dynamics of epidemic spreading.

  1. Bayesian analysis for inference of an emerging epidemic: citrus canker in urban landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Outbreaks of infectious diseases require a rapid response from policy makers. The strength and efficacy of the responses depend upon available knowledge of the spatial and temporal parameters governing pathogen spread, affecting, amongst others, the predicted severity of the epidemic. Yet, when a ne...

  2. From epidemics to information propagation : Striking differences in structurally similar adaptive network models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trajanovski, S.; Guo, D.; Van Mieghem, P.F.A.

    2015-01-01

    The continuous-time adaptive susceptible-infected-susceptible (ASIS) epidemic model and the adaptive information diffusion (AID) model are two adaptive spreading processes on networks, in which a link in the network changes depending on the infectious state of its end nodes, but in opposite ways:

  3. Epidemics after Natural Disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gayer, Michelle; Connolly, Maire A.

    2007-01-01

    The relationship between natural disasters and communicable diseases is frequently misconstrued. The risk for outbreaks is often presumed to be very high in the chaos that follows natural disasters, a fear likely derived from a perceived association between dead bodies and epidemics. However, the risk factors for outbreaks after disasters are associated primarily with population displacement. The availability of safe water and sanitation facilities, the degree of crowding, the underlying health status of the population, and the availability of healthcare services all interact within the context of the local disease ecology to influence the risk for communicable diseases and death in the affected population. We outline the risk factors for outbreaks after a disaster, review the communicable diseases likely to be important, and establish priorities to address communicable diseases in disaster settings. PMID:17370508

  4. The epidemic of methylisothiazolinone

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schwensen, Jakob F; Uter, Wolfgang; Bruze, Magnus

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The use of methylisothiazolinone (MI) in cosmetic products has caused an unprecedented epidemic of MI contact allergy. Current data concerning exposures at a European level are required. OBJECTIVES: To describe demographics and MI exposures for European patients with MI contact allergy....... METHODS: Eleven European dermatology departments from eight European countries prospectively collected data between 1 May and 31 October 2015 among consecutive patients who had positive patch test reactions to MI (2000 ppm aq.). RESULTS: A total of 6.0% (205/3434; range 2.6-13.0%) of patients had positive...... patch test reactions to MI. Dermatitis most frequently affected the hands (43.4%), face (32.7%), arms (14.6%), and eyelids (11.7%); 12.7% had widespread dermatitis. For 72.7% (149/205), MI contact allergy was currently relevant mainly because of exposure to cosmetic products (83.2%; 124...

  5. epiDMS: Data Management and Analytics for Decision-Making From Epidemic Spread Simulation Ensembles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Sicong; Poccia, Silvestro; Candan, K Selçuk; Chowell, Gerardo; Sapino, Maria Luisa

    2016-12-01

    Carefully calibrated large-scale computational models of epidemic spread represent a powerful tool to support the decision-making process during epidemic emergencies. Epidemic models are being increasingly used for generating forecasts of the spatial-temporal progression of epidemics at different spatial scales and for assessing the likely impact of different intervention strategies. However, the management and analysis of simulation ensembles stemming from large-scale computational models pose challenges, particularly when dealing with multiple interdependent parameters, spanning multiple layers and geospatial frames, affected by complex dynamic processes operating at different resolutions. We describe and illustrate with examples a novel epidemic simulation data management system, epiDMS, that was developed to address the challenges that arise from the need to generate, search, visualize, and analyze, in a scalable manner, large volumes of epidemic simulation ensembles and observations during the progression of an epidemic. epiDMS is a publicly available system that facilitates management and analysis of large epidemic simulation ensembles. epiDMS aims to fill an important hole in decision-making during healthcare emergencies by enabling critical services with significant economic and health impact. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

  6. Topographic determinants of foot and mouth disease transmission in the UK 2001 epidemic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keeling Matthew J

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A key challenge for modelling infectious disease dynamics is to understand the spatial spread of infection in real landscapes. This ideally requires a parallel record of spatial epidemic spread and a detailed map of susceptible host density along with relevant transport links and geographical features. Results Here we analyse the most detailed such data to date arising from the UK 2001 foot and mouth epidemic. We show that Euclidean distance between infectious and susceptible premises is a better predictor of transmission risk than shortest and quickest routes via road, except where major geographical features intervene. Conclusion Thus, a simple spatial transmission kernel based on Euclidean distance suffices in most regions, probably reflecting the multiplicity of transmission routes during the epidemic.

  7. Epidemiological monitoring for emerging infectious diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greene, Marjorie

    2010-04-01

    The Homeland Security News Wire has been reporting on new ways to fight epidemics using digital tools such as iPhone, social networks, Wikipedia, and other Internet sites. Instant two-way communication now gives consumers the ability to complement official reports on emerging infectious diseases from health authorities. However, there is increasing concern that these communications networks could open the door to mass panic from unreliable or false reports. There is thus an urgent need to ensure that epidemiological monitoring for emerging infectious diseases gives health authorities the capability to identify, analyze, and report disease outbreaks in as timely and efficient a manner as possible. One of the dilemmas in the global dissemination of information on infectious diseases is the possibility that information overload will create inefficiencies as the volume of Internet-based surveillance information increases. What is needed is a filtering mechanism that will retrieve relevant information for further analysis by epidemiologists, laboratories, and other health organizations so they are not overwhelmed with irrelevant information and will be able to respond quickly. This paper introduces a self-organizing ontology that could be used as a filtering mechanism to increase relevance and allow rapid analysis of disease outbreaks as they evolve in real time.

  8. Association of Drought with Typhus Epidemics in Central Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acuna-Soto, R.; Stahle, D.; Villanueva Diaz, J.; Therrell, M.

    2007-05-01

    Typhus is an acute infectious disease caused by the bacteria Rickettsia prowazekii, which is transmitted among humans by the body lice (Pediculus humanus corporis). The disease is highly contagious and transmission is favored in populations living in crowded conditions. Under these circumstances, typhus transmission is facilitated by factors that favor the colonization and proliferation of body lice such as absence of personal hygiene and wearing the same clothes for long periods of time. Historically, periods of war and famine were associated with devastating epidemics with high mortality rates in many parts of the world. Central Mexico has a long record of typhus epidemics. In this region, at > 2000 meters above sea level, the disease was endemic and occurred with a seasonal pattern in winter, with occasional large epidemics. Recently, we completed a chronology of epidemics in Mexico. A total of 22 well-defined major typhus epidemics were identified between 1650 and 1920. All of them caused periods of increased mortality that lasted 2 - 4 years (more than one standard deviation from the previous ten year period). The record of typhus epidemics was evaluated against the tree-ring record of Cuauhtmoc La Fragua, Puebla. This chronology, based on Douglas fir, has demonstrated to be a faithful record of precipitation in central Mexico. The results indicate that a statistically significant drought (t test, p first year of all 22 large outbreaks of typhus in recent Mexican history. No distinction is made between times of peace and war. This indicates that drought alone was capable of inducing the social conditions for increased transmission of typhus in pre-industrial central Mexico.

  9. Dynamics of Ebola epidemics in West Africa 2014 [v2; ref status: indexed, http://f1000r.es/5fh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robin J. Evans

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the dynamics of Ebola virus transmission in West Africa during 2014. The reproduction numbers for the total period of epidemic and for different consequent time intervals are estimated based on a simple linear model. It contains one major parameter - the average infectious period that defines the dynamics of epidemics. Numerical implementations are carried out on data collected from three countries Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia as well as the total data collected worldwide. Predictions are provided by considering different scenarios involving the average times of infectiousness for the next few months and the end of the current epidemic is estimated according to each scenario.

  10. Virulence evolution at the front line of spreading epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griette, Quentin; Raoul, Gaël; Gandon, Sylvain

    2015-11-01

    Understanding and predicting the spatial spread of emerging pathogens is a major challenge for the public health management of infectious diseases. Theoretical epidemiology shows that the speed of an epidemic is governed by the life-history characteristics of the pathogen and its ability to disperse. Rapid evolution of these traits during the invasion may thus affect the speed of epidemics. Here we study the influence of virulence evolution on the spatial spread of an epidemic. At the edge of the invasion front, we show that more virulent and transmissible genotypes are expected to win the competition with other pathogens. Behind the front line, however, more prudent exploitation strategies outcompete virulent pathogens. Crucially, even when the presence of the virulent mutant is limited to the edge of the front, the invasion speed can be dramatically altered by pathogen evolution. We support our analysis with individual-based simulations and we discuss the additional effects of demographic stochasticity taking place at the front line on virulence evolution. We confirm that an increase of virulence can occur at the front, but only if the carrying capacity of the invading pathogen is large enough. These results are discussed in the light of recent empirical studies examining virulence evolution at the edge of spreading epidemics. © 2015 The Author(s). Evolution © 2015 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  11. Dynamics of cholera epidemics with impulsive vaccination and disinfection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sisodiya, Omprakash Singh; Misra, O P; Dhar, Joydip

    2018-04-01

    Waterborne diseases have a tremendous influence on human life. The contaminated drinking water causes water-borne disease like cholera. Pulse vaccination is an important and effective strategy for the elimination of infectious diseases. A waterborne disease like cholera can also be controlled by using impulse technique. In this paper, we have proposed a delayed SEIRB epidemic model with impulsive vaccination and disinfection. We have studied the pulse vaccination strategy and sanitation to control the cholera disease. The existence and stability of the disease-free and endemic periodic solution are investigated both analytically and numerically. It is shown that there exists an infection-free periodic solution, using the impulsive dynamical system defined by the stroboscopic map. It is observed that the infection-free periodic solution is globally attractive when the impulse period is less than some critical value. From the analysis of the model, we have obtained a sufficient condition for the permanence of the epidemic with pulse vaccination. The main highlight of this paper is to introduce impulse technique along with latent period into the SEIRB epidemic model to investigate the role of pulse vaccination and disinfection on the dynamics of the cholera epidemics. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Control of African swine fever epidemics in industrialized swine populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq; Bøtner, Anette; Mortensen, Sten

    2016-01-01

    , it is important to explore strategies that can effectively control an epidemic of ASF. In this study, the epidemiological and economic effects of strategies to control the spread of ASF between domestic swine herds were examined using a published model (DTU-DADS-ASF). The control strategies were the basic EU...... and national strategy (Basic), the basic strategy plus pre-emptive depopulation of neighboring swine herds, and intensive surveillance of herds in the control zones, including testing live or dead animals. Virus spread via wild boar was not modelled. Under the basic control strategy, the median epidemic......African swine fever (ASF) is a notifiable infectious disease with a high impact on swine health. The disease is endemic in certain regions in the Baltic countries and has spread to Poland constituting a risk of ASF spread toward Western Europe. Therefore, as part of contingency planning...

  13. Could viruses contribute to the worldwide epidemic of obesity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atkinson, Richard L

    2008-01-01

    The prevalence of obesity in children increased rapidly starting about 1980 in both developed and developing countries. Studies of changes in diet and physical activity, television watching, and food advertisements on television suggest that these are not sufficient to explain the epidemic. The pattern of rapid spread is suggestive of an infectious origin. The concept of virus-induced obesity is not new. Eight viruses have been shown to cause obesity in animals and there is evidence for virus-induced obesity in humans. Recent evidence on animal and human adenoviruses suggests that these adenoviruses may infect adipocytes to alter enzymes and transcription factors resulting in accumulation of triglycerides and differentiation of preadipocytes into mature adipocytes. The E4orf1 gene of Ad-36 has been shown to be responsible for the adipogenic effect. It appears that a portion of the worldwide epidemic of obesity since 1980 could be due to infections with human adenoviruses.

  14. Angiography and the gastrointestinal bleeder

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baum, S.

    1982-01-01

    The role of angiography in the diagnosis and treatment of gastrointestinal hemorrhage is discussed. Three categories of gastrointestinal bleeding are considered: upper gastrointestinal bleeding due to gastroesophageal varices, upper gastrointestinal bleeding of arterial or capillary origin, and lower gastrointestinal bleeding. The advantages and disadvantages of angiography are compared with those of radionuclide scanning and endoscopy or colonoscopy. It is anticipated that, as radionuclide scans are more widely employed, angiography will eventually be performed only in those patients with positive scans

  15. Epidemic cholera spreads like wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Manojit; Zinck, Richard D.; Bouma, Menno J.; Pascual, Mercedes

    2014-01-01

    Cholera is on the rise globally, especially epidemic cholera which is characterized by intermittent and unpredictable outbreaks that punctuate periods of regional disease fade-out. These epidemic dynamics remain however poorly understood. Here we examine records for epidemic cholera over both contemporary and historical timelines, from Africa (1990-2006) and former British India (1882-1939). We find that the frequency distribution of outbreak size is fat-tailed, scaling approximately as a power-law. This pattern which shows strong parallels with wildfires is incompatible with existing cholera models developed for endemic regions, as it implies a fundamental role for stochastic transmission and local depletion of susceptible hosts. Application of a recently developed forest-fire model indicates that epidemic cholera dynamics are located above a critical phase transition and propagate in similar ways to aggressive wildfires. These findings have implications for the effectiveness of control measures and the mechanisms that ultimately limit the size of outbreaks.

  16. [Epidemic parotiditis, a reportable disease].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boverhoff, J C; Baart, J A

    2013-01-01

    Three consecutive patients with an acute swelling of one of the cheeks, were diagnosed with epidemic parotiditis. The first phase of the diagnostic procedure for an acute cheek swelling is to eliminate the possibility of odontogenic causes. When odontogenic problems have been excluded, non-dentition-related causes may be considered. An acute, progressive swelling in the preauricular area can often be attributed to an inflammation of the parotid gland, but epidemic parotiditis should also be considered. Epidemic parotiditis, or mumps, is caused by the mumps virus. Contamination occurs aerogenically. In the Netherlands, mumps vaccine is an ingredient of the governmental combined mump-measles-rubella inoculation programme. However, in recent years several small-scale parotiditis epidemics have broken out, predominantly among young, inoculated adults. Oropharyngeal mucus and blood samples are needed to diagnose the disease. Each case of the disease should be reported to the community healthcare service.

  17. Gastrointestinal symptoms in children with acute neuroinfections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.I. Markov

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Background. In cases of severe forms of infectious di­seases, in addition to local inflammation, secondary lesions of the gastrointestinal organs may occur. We aimed to study the semiotics and epidemiology of gastrointestinal symptoms in children with acute neuroinfection. Materials and methods. This observational, retrospective, case-control study. We analyzed cases of in-patient treatment of children aged 1 month to 18 years with acute neuroinfections (meningitis, encephalitis and encephalomyelopolyneuropathy. Results. The study included 117 patients with acute central nervous system infections. Clinical symptoms of gastrointestinal infection were observed in 83 (70.9 % children. Among revealed symptoms, disorders of intestinal moti­lity, such as constipation and diarrhea, were prevalent. Manifestations of hepatobiliary system dysfunction included increased transaminase level (alanine aminotransferase (ALT, alkaline phosphatase, gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGTF and/or ultrasound changes (enlargement, diffuse structural changes and were observed in 39.1 % of patients. Among the laboratory parameters, elevated ALT level was observed in 8.3 % of patients, bilirubin was elevated in only one child, alkaline phosphatase was above the age norm in 11.8 %, an increased GGTF above the age norm was observed in 31.3 % of patients. The level of intestinal fatty acid binding protein (I-FABP was elevated in 86.4 %, and L-type fatty acid binding protein (L-FABP — in all (100 % children. Clinical manifestations of gastrointestinal dysfunction (the presence of at least one of the gastrointestinal symptoms had an inverse relationship with the child’s age (rpb = –0.19, p = 0.033, correlated with staying in intensive care unit (odds ratio (OR = +5.25; 95% confidence interval (CI 1.62–16.97, artificial ventilation (OR = +4.5; 95% CI 1.00–21.69 and level of I-FABP (rpb = 0.34, p = 0.019. Conclusions. Among gastrointestinal symptoms in children with

  18. Information content of household-stratified epidemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T.M. Kinyanjui

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Household structure is a key driver of many infectious diseases, as well as a natural target for interventions such as vaccination programs. Many theoretical and conceptual advances on household-stratified epidemic models are relatively recent, but have successfully managed to increase the applicability of such models to practical problems. To be of maximum realism and hence benefit, they require parameterisation from epidemiological data, and while household-stratified final size data has been the traditional source, increasingly time-series infection data from households are becoming available. This paper is concerned with the design of studies aimed at collecting time-series epidemic data in order to maximize the amount of information available to calibrate household models. A design decision involves a trade-off between the number of households to enrol and the sampling frequency. Two commonly used epidemiological study designs are considered: cross-sectional, where different households are sampled at every time point, and cohort, where the same households are followed over the course of the study period. The search for an optimal design uses Bayesian computationally intensive methods to explore the joint parameter-design space combined with the Shannon entropy of the posteriors to estimate the amount of information in each design. For the cross-sectional design, the amount of information increases with the sampling intensity, i.e., the designs with the highest number of time points have the most information. On the other hand, the cohort design often exhibits a trade-off between the number of households sampled and the intensity of follow-up. Our results broadly support the choices made in existing epidemiological data collection studies. Prospective problem-specific use of our computational methods can bring significant benefits in guiding future study designs.

  19. Information content of household-stratified epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinyanjui, T M; Pellis, L; House, T

    2016-09-01

    Household structure is a key driver of many infectious diseases, as well as a natural target for interventions such as vaccination programs. Many theoretical and conceptual advances on household-stratified epidemic models are relatively recent, but have successfully managed to increase the applicability of such models to practical problems. To be of maximum realism and hence benefit, they require parameterisation from epidemiological data, and while household-stratified final size data has been the traditional source, increasingly time-series infection data from households are becoming available. This paper is concerned with the design of studies aimed at collecting time-series epidemic data in order to maximize the amount of information available to calibrate household models. A design decision involves a trade-off between the number of households to enrol and the sampling frequency. Two commonly used epidemiological study designs are considered: cross-sectional, where different households are sampled at every time point, and cohort, where the same households are followed over the course of the study period. The search for an optimal design uses Bayesian computationally intensive methods to explore the joint parameter-design space combined with the Shannon entropy of the posteriors to estimate the amount of information in each design. For the cross-sectional design, the amount of information increases with the sampling intensity, i.e., the designs with the highest number of time points have the most information. On the other hand, the cohort design often exhibits a trade-off between the number of households sampled and the intensity of follow-up. Our results broadly support the choices made in existing epidemiological data collection studies. Prospective problem-specific use of our computational methods can bring significant benefits in guiding future study designs. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. The worldwide obesity epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, P T; Leach, R; Kalamara, E; Shayeghi, M

    2001-11-01

    The recent World Health Organization (WHO) agreement on the standardized classification of overweight and obese, based on body mass index (BMI), allows a comparable analysis of prevalence rates worldwide for the first time. In Asia, however, there is a demand for a more limited range for normal BMIs (i.e., 18.5 to 22.9 kg/m(2) rather than 18.5 to 24.9 kg/m(2)) because of the high prevalence of comorbidities, particularly diabetes and hypertension. In children, the International Obesity Task-Force age-, sex-, and BMI-specific cutoff points are increasingly being used. We are currently evaluating BMI data globally as part of a new millennium analysis of the Global Burden of Disease. WHO is analyzing data in terms of 20 or more principal risk factors contributing to the primary causes of disability and lost lives in the 191 countries within the WHO. The prevalence rates for overweight and obese people are different in each region, with the Middle East, Central and Eastern Europe, and North America having higher prevalence rates. In most countries, women show a greater BMI distribution with higher obesity rates than do men. Obesity is usually now associated with poverty, even in developing countries. Relatively new data suggest that abdominal obesity in adults, with its associated enhanced morbidity, occurs particularly in those who had lower birth weights and early childhood stunting. Waist measurements in nationally representative studies are scarce but will now be needed to estimate the full impact of the worldwide obesity epidemic.

  1. Infectious waste feed system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coulthard, E. James

    1994-01-01

    An infectious waste feed system for comminuting infectious waste and feeding the comminuted waste to a combustor automatically without the need for human intervention. The system includes a receptacle for accepting waste materials. Preferably, the receptacle includes a first and second compartment and a means for sealing the first and second compartments from the atmosphere. A shredder is disposed to comminute waste materials accepted in the receptacle to a predetermined size. A trough is disposed to receive the comminuted waste materials from the shredder. A feeding means is disposed within the trough and is movable in a first and second direction for feeding the comminuted waste materials to a combustor.

  2. Infectious disease modeling a hybrid system approach

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Xinzhi

    2017-01-01

    This volume presents infectious diseases modeled mathematically, taking seasonality and changes in population behavior into account, using a switched and hybrid systems framework. The scope of coverage includes background on mathematical epidemiology, including classical formulations and results; a motivation for seasonal effects and changes in population behavior, an investigation into term-time forced epidemic models with switching parameters, and a detailed account of several different control strategies. The main goal is to study these models theoretically and to establish conditions under which eradication or persistence of the disease is guaranteed. In doing so, the long-term behavior of the models is determined through mathematical techniques from switched systems theory. Numerical simulations are also given to augment and illustrate the theoretical results and to help study the efficacy of the control schemes.

  3. The severe acute respiratory syndrome epidemic in mainland China dissected.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Wu-Chun; de Vlas, Sake J; Richardus, Jan Hendrik

    2011-03-08

    This paper provides a review of a recently published series of studies that give a detailed and comprehensive documentation of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic in mainland China, which severely struck the country in the spring of 2003. The epidemic spanned a large geographical extent but clustered in two areas: first in Guangdong Province, and about 3 months later in Beijing with its surrounding areas. Reanalysis of all available epidemiological data resulted in a total of 5327 probable cases of SARS, of whom 343 died. The resulting case fatality ratio (CFR) of 6.4% was less than half of that in other SARS-affected countries or areas, and this difference could only partly be explained by younger age of patients and higher number of community acquired infections. Analysis of the impact of interventions demonstrated that strong political commitment and a centrally coordinated response was the most important factor to control SARS in mainland China, whereas the most stringent control measures were all initiated when the epidemic was already dying down. The long-term economic consequence of the epidemic was limited, much consumption was merely postponed, but for Beijing irrecoverable losses to the tourist sector were considerable. An important finding from a cohort study was that many former SARS patients currently suffer from avascular osteonecrosis, as a consequence of the treatment with corticosteroids during their infection. The SARS epidemic provided valuable information and lessons relevant in controlling outbreaks of newly emerging infectious diseases, and has led to fundamental reforms of the Chinese health system. In particular, a comprehensive nationwide internet-based disease reporting system was established.

  4. The severe acute respiratory syndrome epidemic in mainland China dissected

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wuchun Cao

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides a review of a recently published series of studies that give a detailed and comprehensive documentation of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS epidemic in mainland China, which severely struck the country in the spring of 2003. The epidemic spanned a large geographical extent but clustered in two areas: first in Guangdong Province, and about 3 months later in Beijing with its surrounding areas. Reanalysis of all available epidemiological data resulted in a total of 5327 probable cases of SARS, of whom 343 died. The resulting case fatality ratio (CFR of 6.4% was less than half of that in other SARS-affected countries or areas, and this difference could only partly be explained by younger age of patients and higher number of community acquired infections. Analysis of the impact of interventions demonstrated that strong political commitment and a centrally coordinated response was the most important factor to control SARS in mainland China, whereas the most stringent control measures were all initiated when the epidemic was already dying down. The long-term economic consequence of the epidemic was limited, much consumption was merely postponed, but for Beijing irrecoverable losses to the tourist sector were considerable. An important finding from a cohort study was that many former SARS patients currently suffer from avascular osteo­necrosis, as a consequence of the treatment with corticosteroids during their infection. The SARS epidemic provided valuable information and lessons relevant in controlling outbreaks of newly emerging infectious diseases, and has led to fundamental reforms of the Chinese health system. In particular, a comprehensive nation-wide internet-based disease reporting system was established.

  5. Review. Systems for prevention and control of epidemic emergencies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paolo Calistri

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The development of early warning systems is fundamental for preventing the spread of infectious diseases. Data collection, however, is a costly activity and it is not possible to implement early warning systems everywhere and for all possible events. Hence, tools helping to improve the focus of surveillance efforts are of paramount importance. Risk assessment methods and other provisional modelling techniques may permit to estimate the probability of introduction and spread of infectious diseases in different geographical areas. Similarly, efficient information systems must be in place to assist the veterinary services in case of epidemic emergencies in order to support the prompt application of control measures for the containment of the infection and the reduction of the magnitude of negative consequences. This review describes two recent approaches to the estimation of the probability of introduction and spread of infectious diseases based on the use of risk maps/spatial modelling and Social Network Analysis (SNA techniques. The review also describes a web application developed in Italy to help official veterinary services to trace animals in case of outbreaks of infectious diseases.

  6. Dynamics of infectious diseases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rock, Kat; Brand, Sam; Moir, Jo; Keeling, Matt J

    2014-01-01

    Modern infectious disease epidemiology has a strong history of using mathematics both for prediction and to gain a deeper understanding. However the study of infectious diseases is a highly interdisciplinary subject requiring insights from multiple disciplines, in particular a biological knowledge of the pathogen, a statistical description of the available data and a mathematical framework for prediction. Here we begin with the basic building blocks of infectious disease epidemiology—the SIS and SIR type models—before considering the progress that has been made over the recent decades and the challenges that lie ahead. Throughout we focus on the understanding that can be developed from relatively simple models, although accurate prediction will inevitably require far greater complexity beyond the scope of this review. In particular, we focus on three critical aspects of infectious disease models that we feel fundamentally shape their dynamics: heterogeneously structured populations, stochasticity and spatial structure. Throughout we relate the mathematical models and their results to a variety of real-world problems. (review article)

  7. Infectious uveitis in Virginia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Engelhard SB

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Stephanie B Engelhard,1 Zeina Haddad,1 Asima Bajwa,1 James Patrie,2 Wenjun Xin,2 Ashvini K Reddy1 1Department of Ophthalmology, 2Department of Public Health Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA Purpose: To report the causes, clinical features, and outcomes of infectious uveitis in patients managed in a mid-Atlantic tertiary care center.Methods: Retrospective, observational study of infectious uveitis patients seen at the University of Virginia from 1984 to 2014.Results: Seventy-seven of 491 patients (15.7% were diagnosed with infectious uveitis (mean age 58 years, 71.4% female, 76.6% Caucasian. The mean follow-up was 5 years. Anterior uveitis was the most common anatomic classification (39 patients, 50.6% followed by panuveitis (20 patients, 26.0% and posterior uveitis (18 patients, 23.4%. The most common infectious etiology was herpetic anterior uveitis (37 patients, 48.1% followed by toxoplasma uveitis (14 patients, 18.2%. The most prevalent viral pathogen was varicella-zoster virus (21 patients, 27.3% followed by herpes simplex virus (20 patients, 26.0%. Acute retinal necrosis (ARN was diagnosed in 14 patients (18.2%. Aqueous humor yielded an etiologic diagnosis in seven (50% of ARN patients, four of whom tested positive for cytomegalovirus and three for varicella-zoster virus. On presentation, 43 patients (55.8% had a visual acuity (VA better than 20/40 and 17 (22.1% had a VA worse than 20/200. VA at the final follow-up was better than 20/40 in 39 patients (50.6% and worse than 20/200 in 22 patients (28.6%. In all, 16 (20.8% and 10 (13.0% patients required cataract and vitrectomy surgery, respectively. A total of 14 patients (18.2% were on glaucoma topical treatment and four (5.2% required glaucoma surgery.Conclusion: The most common type of infectious uveitis seen over the study period was herpetic anterior uveitis secondary to varicella-zoster virus or herpes simplex virus, found to be most prevalent in patients

  8. Epidemic Wave Dynamics Attributable to Urban Community Structure: A Theoretical Characterization of Disease Transmission in a Large Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eggo, Rosalind M; Lenczner, Michael

    2015-01-01

    Background Multiple waves of transmission during infectious disease epidemics represent a major public health challenge, but the ecological and behavioral drivers of epidemic resurgence are poorly understood. In theory, community structure—aggregation into highly intraconnected and loosely interconnected social groups—within human populations may lead to punctuated outbreaks as diseases progress from one community to the next. However, this explanation has been largely overlooked in favor of temporal shifts in environmental conditions and human behavior and because of the difficulties associated with estimating large-scale contact patterns. Objective The aim was to characterize naturally arising patterns of human contact that are capable of producing simulated epidemics with multiple wave structures. Methods We used an extensive dataset of proximal physical contacts between users of a public Wi-Fi Internet system to evaluate the epidemiological implications of an empirical urban contact network. We characterized the modularity (community structure) of the network and then estimated epidemic dynamics under a percolation-based model of infectious disease spread on the network. We classified simulated epidemics as multiwave using a novel metric and we identified network structures that were critical to the network’s ability to produce multiwave epidemics. Results We identified robust community structure in a large, empirical urban contact network from which multiwave epidemics may emerge naturally. This pattern was fueled by a special kind of insularity in which locally popular individuals were not the ones forging contacts with more distant social groups. Conclusions Our results suggest that ordinary contact patterns can produce multiwave epidemics at the scale of a single urban area without the temporal shifts that are usually assumed to be responsible. Understanding the role of community structure in epidemic dynamics allows officials to anticipate epidemic

  9. Vasculitis and infectious diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satta, R; Biondi, G

    2015-04-01

    Vasculitis usually presents without a well-known underline cause (idiopathic vasculitis), nevertheless, it is sometimes possible to find out one or more causative agents (secondary vasculitis). Nowadays, thanks to the increasing amount of precise diagnostic tools, a piece of idiopathic vasculitis is reclassified as associated with probable etiology, which can be set off by several factors, such as infections. Infections are considered to be the most common cause of secondary vasculitis. Virtually, every infectious agent can trigger a vasculitis by different mechanisms which can be divided in two main categories: direct and indirect. In the former, infectious agents destroy directly the vascular wall leading, eventually, to a subsequent inflammatory response. In the latter, indirect form, they stimulate an immune response against blood vessels. Different infectious agents are able to directly damage the vascular wall. Among these, it is possible to recognize Staphylococcus spp, Streptococcus spp, Salmonella spp, Treponema spp, Rickettsia spp, Cytomegalovirus, Herpes Simplex Virus 1 and 2, and many others which have a peculiar tropism for endothelial cells. Conversely, another group of microbial agents, such as Mycobacterium tuberculosis, Mycobacterium leprae, Hepatits B Virus, Human Immunodeficiency Virus and others, trigger vasculitis in the indirect way. This is due to the fact that they can share epitopes with the host or modify self-antigens, thus leading to a cross-self reaction of the immune system. These mechanism, in turn, leads to immunological responses classified as type I-IV by Gell-Coombs. Nevertheless, it is difficult to strictly separate the direct and indirect forms, because most infectious agents can cause vasculitis in both ways (mixed forms). This paper will analyze the link between infectious agents and vasculitis, focusing on direct and indirect secondary vasculitis, and on a group of probable infection-related idiopathic vasculitis, and finally

  10. A generalized-growth model to characterize the early ascending phase of infectious disease outbreaks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Viboud, Cecile; Simonsen, Lone; Chowell, Gerardo

    2016-01-01

    the importance of sub-exponential growth for forecasting purposes.Results: We applied the generalized-growth model to 20 infectious disease outbreaks representing a range of transmission routes. We uncovered epidemic profiles ranging from very slow growth (p = 0.14 for the Ebola outbreak in Bomi, Liberia (2014...... African Ebola epidemic provided a unique opportunity to explore how growth profiles vary by geography; analysis of the largest district-level outbreaks revealed substantial growth variations (mean p = 0.59, range: 0.14–0.97). The districts of Margibi in Liberia and Bombali and Bo in Sierra Leone had near......-exponential growth, while the districts of Bomi in Liberia and Kenema in Sierra Leone displayed near constant incidences.Conclusions: Our findings reveal significant variation in epidemic growth patterns across different infectious disease outbreaks and highlights that sub-exponential growth is a common phenomenon...

  11. Management of gastrointestinal hemorrhage.

    OpenAIRE

    Hilsden, R. J.; Shaffer, E. A.

    1995-01-01

    Acute gastrointestinal hemorrhage is a common problem that requires prompt recognition and management to prevent serious morbidity and mortality. Management goals are stabilization of the patient with vigorous fluid resuscitation followed by investigation and definitive treatment of the bleeding source. Endoscopy is often the initial diagnostic test and allows therapeutic measures to be performed at the same time.

  12. Epidemiology and vaccine of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus in China: a mini-review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Dongbo; Wang, Xinyu; Wei, Shan; Chen, Jianfei; Feng, Li

    2016-03-01

    Porcine epidemic diarrhea (PED) is an intestinal infectious disease caused by porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV); manifestations of the disease are diarrhea, vomiting and dehydration. Starting from the end of 2010, a PED outbreak occurred in several pig-producing provinces in southern China. Subsequently, the disease spread throughout the country and caused enormous economic losses to the pork industry. Accumulating studies demonstrated that new PEDV variants that appeared in China were responsible for the PED outbreak. In the current mini-review, we summarize PEDV epidemiology and vaccination in China.

  13. Environmental Factors Influencing Epidemic Cholera

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jutla, Antarpreet; Whitcombe, Elizabeth; Hasan, Nur; Haley, Bradd; Akanda, Ali; Huq, Anwar; Alam, Munir; Sack, R. Bradley; Colwell, Rita

    2013-01-01

    Cholera outbreak following the earthquake of 2010 in Haiti has reaffirmed that the disease is a major public health threat. Vibrio cholerae is autochthonous to aquatic environment, hence, it cannot be eradicated but hydroclimatology-based prediction and prevention is an achievable goal. Using data from the 1800s, we describe uniqueness in seasonality and mechanism of occurrence of cholera in the epidemic regions of Asia and Latin America. Epidemic regions are located near regional rivers and are characterized by sporadic outbreaks, which are likely to be initiated during episodes of prevailing warm air temperature with low river flows, creating favorable environmental conditions for growth of cholera bacteria. Heavy rainfall, through inundation or breakdown of sanitary infrastructure, accelerates interaction between contaminated water and human activities, resulting in an epidemic. This causal mechanism is markedly different from endemic cholera where tidal intrusion of seawater carrying bacteria from estuary to inland regions, results in outbreaks. PMID:23897993

  14. Networked SIS Epidemics With Awareness

    KAUST Repository

    Paarporn, Keith

    2017-07-20

    We study a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic process over a static contact network where the nodes have partial information about the epidemic state. They react by limiting their interactions with their neighbors when they believe the epidemic is currently prevalent. A node\\'s awareness is weighted by the fraction of infected neighbors in their social network, and a global broadcast of the fraction of infected nodes in the entire network. The dynamics of the benchmark (no awareness) and awareness models are described by discrete-time Markov chains, from which mean-field approximations (MFAs) are derived. The states of the MFA are interpreted as the nodes\\' probabilities of being infected. We show a sufficient condition for the existence of a

  15. Understanding Ebola: the 2014 epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaner, Jolie; Schaack, Sarah

    2016-09-13

    Near the end of 2013, an outbreak of Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV) began in Guinea, subsequently spreading to neighboring Liberia and Sierra Leone. As this epidemic grew, important public health questions emerged about how and why this outbreak was so different from previous episodes. This review provides a synthetic synopsis of the 2014-15 outbreak, with the aim of understanding its unprecedented spread. We present a summary of the history of previous epidemics, describe the structure and genetics of the ebolavirus, and review our current understanding of viral vectors and the latest treatment practices. We conclude with an analysis of the public health challenges epidemic responders faced and some of the lessons that could be applied to future outbreaks of Ebola or other viruses.

  16. Infectious endocarditis caused by Escherichia coli

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauridsen, Trine Kiilerich; Arpi, Magnus; Fritz-Hansen, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    Although Escherichia coli is among the most common causes of Gram-negative bacteraemia, infectious endocarditis (IE) due to this pathogen is rare. A 67-y-old male without a previous medical history presented with a new mitral regurgitation murmur and persisting E. coli bacteraemia in spite of broad......-spectrum intravenous antibiotics. Transthoracic and transoesophageal echocardiography revealed a severe mitral endocarditis. E. coli DNA was identified from the mitral valve and the vegetation, and no other pathogen was found. The case was further complicated by spondylodiscitis and bilateral endophthalmitis. Extra......-intestinal pathogenic E. coli (ExPEC) are able to colonize tissue outside the gastrointestinal tract and contain a variety of virulence factors that may enable the pathogens to invade and induce infections in the cardiac endothelia. In these cases echocardiography as the imaging technology is of paramount importance...

  17. Spatially explicit modelling of cholera epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finger, F.; Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Knox, A. C.; Gatto, M.; Rinaldo, A.

    2013-12-01

    Epidemiological models can provide crucial understanding about the dynamics of infectious diseases. Possible applications range from real-time forecasting and allocation of health care resources to testing alternative intervention mechanisms such as vaccines, antibiotics or the improvement of sanitary conditions. We apply a spatially explicit model to the cholera epidemic that struck Haiti in October 2010 and is still ongoing. The dynamics of susceptibles as well as symptomatic and asymptomatic infectives are modelled at the scale of local human communities. Dissemination of Vibrio cholerae through hydrological transport and human mobility along the road network is explicitly taken into account, as well as the effect of rainfall as a driver of increasing disease incidence. The model is calibrated using a dataset of reported cholera cases. We further model the long term impact of several types of interventions on the disease dynamics by varying parameters appropriately. Key epidemiological mechanisms and parameters which affect the efficiency of treatments such as antibiotics are identified. Our results lead to conclusions about the influence of different intervention strategies on the overall epidemiological dynamics.

  18. Population medicine and control of epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benchaoui, Hafid

    2010-01-01

    Population medicine is an important component of veterinary care in livestock (farm animals) and companion animals (pets). This chapter covers some of the chemotherapeutic approaches undertaken at population level to control infectious diseases in domestic animals. Optimisation of health, productivity and welfare in livestock commonly entails implementation of whole-herd or whole-flock strategies to effectively counter the negative impact of infectious diseases. Gastro-intestinal and liver parasites of grazing cattle and sheep are endemic in most parts of the world and can result in significant production losses. Strategically timed anthelmintic treatments are instituted with the double objective of reducing worm burdens in infected animals and ensuring reduction of pasture contamination with infective larvae. Mastitis is another major endemic problem, particularly in cattle, which causes significant economic losses to dairy farmers globally. As a painful inflammatory condition of the cow's udder, clinical mastitis also raises animal welfare concerns. Prevention of clinical mastitis requires rigorous post-milking hygiene, identification and culling of chronically infected cows, attention to the cow's environment and therapeutic management of udder health during the dry period. A third condition that can cause high levels of morbidity and mortality is bacterial respiratory disease. Pneumonia in young livestock is often exacerbated by stressful transportation and co-mingling of animals from different herds. The welfare consequences and production losses can be significant. Antimicrobial treatment of pneumonic animals and, when appropriate, of in-contact animals living in the same air-space is an integral part of whole-herd respiratory disease management. The role of the veterinary profession is to also ensure that principles of population medicine are understood and adhered to by pet owners. The increase in pet ownership and the importance of the human-animal bond in

  19. Epidemic spreading on interconnected networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saumell-Mendiola, Anna; Serrano, M Ángeles; Boguñá, Marián

    2012-08-01

    Many real networks are not isolated from each other but form networks of networks, often interrelated in nontrivial ways. Here, we analyze an epidemic spreading process taking place on top of two interconnected complex networks. We develop a heterogeneous mean-field approach that allows us to calculate the conditions for the emergence of an endemic state. Interestingly, a global endemic state may arise in the coupled system even though the epidemics is not able to propagate on each network separately and even when the number of coupling connections is small. Our analytic results are successfully confronted against large-scale numerical simulations.

  20. Measles epidemics of variable lethality in the early 20th century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shanks, G Dennis; Hu, Zheng; Waller, Michael; Lee, Seung-eun; Terfa, Daniel; Howard, Alan; van Heyningen, Elizabeth; Brundage, John F

    2014-02-15

    Until the mid-20th century, mortality rates were often very high during measles epidemics, particularly among previously isolated populations (e.g., islanders), refugees/internees who were forcibly crowded into camps, and military recruits. Searching for insights regarding measles mortality rates, we reviewed historical records of measles epidemics on the Polynesian island of Rotuma (in 1911), in Boer War concentration camps (in 1900-1902), and in US Army mobilization camps during the First World War (in 1917-1918). Records classified measles deaths by date and clinical causes; by demographic characteristics, family relationships (for Rotuma islanders and Boer camp internees), and prior residences; and by camp (for Boer internees and US Army recruits). During the Rotuman and Boer War epidemics, measles-related mortality rates were high (up to 40%); however, mortality rates differed more than 10-fold across camps/districts, even though conditions were similar. During measles epidemics, most deaths among camp internees/military recruits were due to secondary bacterial pneumonias; in contrast, most deaths among Rotuman islanders were due to gastrointestinal complications. The clinical expressions, courses, and outcomes of measles during first-contact epidemics differ from those during camp epidemics. The degree of isolation from respiratory pathogens other than measles may significantly determine measles-related mortality risk.

  1. The narcissism epidemic is dead : Long live the narcissism epidemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wetzel, Eunike; Brown, Anna; Hill, Patrick; Chung, J.M.H.; Robins, R.W.; Roberts, B.W.

    2017-01-01

    Are recent cohorts of college students more narcissistic than their predecessors? To address debates about the so-called “narcissism epidemic,” we used data from three cohorts of students (N1990s = 1,166; N2000s = 33,647; N2010s = 25,412) to test whether narcissism levels (overall and specific

  2. Planning horizon affects prophylactic decision-making and epidemic dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nardin, Luis G; Miller, Craig R; Ridenhour, Benjamin J; Krone, Stephen M; Joyce, Paul; Baumgaertner, Bert O

    2016-01-01

    The spread of infectious diseases can be impacted by human behavior, and behavioral decisions often depend implicitly on a planning horizon-the time in the future over which options are weighed. We investigate the effects of planning horizons on epidemic dynamics. We developed an epidemiological agent-based model (along with an ODE analog) to explore the decision-making of self-interested individuals on adopting prophylactic behavior. The decision-making process incorporates prophylaxis efficacy and disease prevalence with the individuals' payoffs and planning horizon. Our results show that for short and long planning horizons individuals do not consider engaging in prophylactic behavior. In contrast, individuals adopt prophylactic behavior when considering intermediate planning horizons. Such adoption, however, is not always monotonically associated with the prevalence of the disease, depending on the perceived protection efficacy and the disease parameters. Adoption of prophylactic behavior reduces the epidemic peak size while prolonging the epidemic and potentially generates secondary waves of infection. These effects can be made stronger by increasing the behavioral decision frequency or distorting an individual's perceived risk of infection.

  3. How to make epidemiological training infectious.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steve E Bellan

    Full Text Available Modern infectious disease epidemiology builds on two independently developed fields: classical epidemiology and dynamical epidemiology. Over the past decade, integration of the two fields has increased in research practice, but training options within the fields remain distinct with few opportunities for integration in the classroom. The annual Clinic on the Meaningful Modeling of Epidemiological Data (MMED at the African Institute for Mathematical Sciences has begun to address this gap. MMED offers participants exposure to a broad range of concepts and techniques from both epidemiological traditions. During MMED 2010 we developed a pedagogical approach that bridges the traditional distinction between classical and dynamical epidemiology and can be used at multiple educational levels, from high school to graduate level courses. The approach is hands-on, consisting of a real-time simulation of a stochastic outbreak in course participants, including realistic data reporting, followed by a variety of mathematical and statistical analyses, stemming from both epidemiological traditions. During the exercise, dynamical epidemiologists developed empirical skills such as study design and learned concepts of bias while classical epidemiologists were trained in systems thinking and began to understand epidemics as dynamic nonlinear processes. We believe this type of integrated educational tool will prove extremely valuable in the training of future infectious disease epidemiologists. We also believe that such interdisciplinary training will be critical for local capacity building in analytical epidemiology as Africa continues to produce new cohorts of well-trained mathematicians, statisticians, and scientists. And because the lessons draw on skills and concepts from many fields in biology--from pathogen biology, evolutionary dynamics of host--pathogen interactions, and the ecology of infectious disease to bioinformatics, computational biology, and

  4. Surveillance of gastrointestinal disease in France using drug sales data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pivette, Mathilde; Mueller, Judith E; Crépey, Pascal; Bar-Hen, Avner

    2014-09-01

    Drug sales data have increasingly been used for disease surveillance during recent years. Our objective was to assess the value of drug sales data as an operational early detection tool for gastroenteritis epidemics at national and regional level in France. For the period 2008-2013, we compared temporal trends of drug sales for the treatment of gastroenteritis with trends of cases reported by a Sentinel Network of general practitioners. We benchmarked detection models to select the one with the best sensitivity, false alert proportion and timeliness, and developed a prospective framework to assess the operational performance of the system. Drug sales data allowed the detection of seasonal gastrointestinal epidemics occurring in winter with a distinction between prescribed and non-prescribed drugs. Sales of non-prescribed drugs allowed epidemic detection on average 2.25 weeks earlier than Sentinel data. These results confirm the value of drug sales data for real-time monitoring of gastroenteritis epidemic activity. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. NOD2/CARD15 genotype and common gastrointestinal diseases in 43 600 individuals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yazdanyar, S.; Nordestgaard, B.G.

    2010-01-01

    heterozygotes. Cumulative incidences differed by genotype for appendicitis (log-rank P = 0.02), anal fissure, fistula and abscess (P = 0.003) and gastrointestinal cancer (P = 0.004), but not for any of the other endpoints. Compared with non-carriers, age and sex adjusted hazard ratios were 2.7 (95% CI 1...... appendicitis, 646 irritable bowel syndrome, 1301 infectious diseases of the gastrointestinal tract, 681 anal fissure, fistula and abscess, 826 gastrointestinal cancer and 161 developed cancer in liver and pancreas. Results. Some 89% were non-carriers, 11% heterozygotes, 0.15% homozygotes and 0.23% compound.......4-5.5) for appendicitis amongst compound heterozygotes, 3.2 (1.3-7.8) for anal fissure, fistula and abscess amongst compound heterozygotes, and 3.8 (1.6-9.2) for gastrointestinal cancer amongst homozygotes, whilst other genotypes did not have increased risk. The increased risk of gastrointestinal cancer amongst...

  6. NOD2/CARD15 genotype and common gastrointestinal diseases in 43 600 individuals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yazdanyar, S.; Nordestgaard, B.G.

    2010-01-01

    appendicitis, 646 irritable bowel syndrome, 1301 infectious diseases of the gastrointestinal tract, 681 anal fissure, fistula and abscess, 826 gastrointestinal cancer and 161 developed cancer in liver and pancreas. Results. Some 89% were non-carriers, 11% heterozygotes, 0.15% homozygotes and 0.23% compound...... heterozygotes. Cumulative incidences differed by genotype for appendicitis (log-rank P = 0.02), anal fissure, fistula and abscess (P = 0.003) and gastrointestinal cancer (P = 0.004), but not for any of the other endpoints. Compared with non-carriers, age and sex adjusted hazard ratios were 2.7 (95% CI 1.......4-5.5) for appendicitis amongst compound heterozygotes, 3.2 (1.3-7.8) for anal fissure, fistula and abscess amongst compound heterozygotes, and 3.8 (1.6-9.2) for gastrointestinal cancer amongst homozygotes, whilst other genotypes did not have increased risk. The increased risk of gastrointestinal cancer amongst...

  7. Statistics of Epidemics in Networks by Passing Messages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrestha, Munik Kumar

    Epidemic processes are common out-of-equilibrium phenomena of broad interdisciplinary interest. In this thesis, we show how message-passing approach can be a helpful tool for simulating epidemic models in disordered medium like networks, and in particular for estimating the probability that a given node will become infectious at a particular time. The sort of dynamics we consider are stochastic, where randomness can arise from the stochastic events or from the randomness of network structures. As in belief propagation, variables or messages in message-passing approach are defined on the directed edges of a network. However, unlike belief propagation, where the posterior distributions are updated according to Bayes' rule, in message-passing approach we write differential equations for the messages over time. It takes correlations between neighboring nodes into account while preventing causal signals from backtracking to their immediate source, and thus avoids "echo chamber effects" where a pair of adjacent nodes each amplify the probability that the other is infectious. In our first results, we develop a message-passing approach to threshold models of behavior popular in sociology. These are models, first proposed by Granovetter, where individuals have to hear about a trend or behavior from some number of neighbors before adopting it themselves. In thermodynamic limit of large random networks, we provide an exact analytic scheme while calculating the time dependence of the probabilities and thus learning about the whole dynamics of bootstrap percolation, which is a simple model known in statistical physics for exhibiting discontinuous phase transition. As an application, we apply a similar model to financial networks, studying when bankruptcies spread due to the sudden devaluation of shared assets in overlapping portfolios. We predict that although diversification may be good for individual institutions, it can create dangerous systemic effects, and as a result

  8. Epidemic assistance by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: role of the Epidemic Intelligence Service, 1946-2005.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thacker, Stephen B; Stroup, Donna F; Sencer, David J

    2011-12-01

    Since 1946, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has responded to urgent requests from US states, federal agencies, and international organizations through epidemic-assistance investigations (Epi-Aids). The authors describe the first 60 years of Epi-Aids, breadth of problems addressed, evolution of methodologies, scope of activities, and impact of investigations on population health. They reviewed Epi-Aid reports and EIS Bulletins, contacted current and former Epidemic Intelligence Service staff, and systematically searched the PubMed and Web of Science databases. They abstracted information on dates, location, staff involved, health problems, methods, and impacts of investigations according to a preplanned protocol. They assessed the methods presented as well as the quality of reports. During 1946-2005, a total of 4,484 investigations of health events were initiated by 2,815 Epidemic Intelligence Service officers. In the early years, the majority were in response to infectious agents, although environmental problems emerged. Investigations in subsequent years focused on occupational conditions, birth defects, reproductive health, tobacco use, cancer, violence, legal debate, and terrorism. These Epi-Aids heralded expansion of the agency's mission and presented new methods in statistics and epidemiology. Recommendations from Epi-Aids led to policy implementation, evaluation, or modification. Epi-Aids provide the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention with the agility to respond rapidly to public health crises.

  9. GASTROINTESTINAL STROMAL TUMOR (GIST

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luigi eTornillo

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Gastrointestinal stromal tumors are the most frequent mesenchymal tumors of the gastrointestinal tract. The discovery that these tumors, formerly thought of smooth muscle origin, are indeed better characterized by specific activating mutation in genes coding for the receptor tyrosine kinases CKIT and PDGFRA and that these mutations are strongly predictive for the response to targeted therapy with receptor tyrosine kinase inhibitors has made GISTs the typical example of the integration of basic molecular knowledge in the daily clinical activity. The information on the mutational status of these tumors is essential to predict (and subsequently to plan the therapy. As resistant cases are frequently wild-type, other possible oncogenic events, defining other entities, have been discovered (e.g. succinil dehydrogenase mutation/dysregulation, insuline growth factor expression, mutations in the RAS-RAF-MAPK pathway. The classification of disease must nowadays rely on the integration of the clinico-morphological characteristics with the molecular data.

  10. Radiology illustrated. Gastrointestinal tract

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Byung Ihn

    2015-01-01

    Radiology Illustrated: Gastrointestinal Tract is the second of two volumes designed to provide clear and practical guidance on the diagnostic imaging of abdominal diseases. The book presents approximately 300 cases with 1500 carefully selected and categorized illustrations of gastrointestinal tract diseases, along with key text messages and tables that will help the reader easily to recall the relevant images as an aid to differential diagnosis., Essential points are summarized at the end of each text message to facilitate rapid review and learning. Additionally, brief descriptions of each clinical problem are provided, followed by case studies of both common and uncommon pathologies that illustrate the roles of the different imaging modalities, including ultrasound, radiography, computed tomography, and magnetic resonance imaging.

  11. Radiology illustrated. Gastrointestinal tract

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choi, Byung Ihn (ed.) [Seoul National University Hospital (Korea, Republic of). Dept. of Radiology

    2015-02-01

    Radiology Illustrated: Gastrointestinal Tract is the second of two volumes designed to provide clear and practical guidance on the diagnostic imaging of abdominal diseases. The book presents approximately 300 cases with 1500 carefully selected and categorized illustrations of gastrointestinal tract diseases, along with key text messages and tables that will help the reader easily to recall the relevant images as an aid to differential diagnosis., Essential points are summarized at the end of each text message to facilitate rapid review and learning. Additionally, brief descriptions of each clinical problem are provided, followed by case studies of both common and uncommon pathologies that illustrate the roles of the different imaging modalities, including ultrasound, radiography, computed tomography, and magnetic resonance imaging.

  12. Gastrointestinal Complications of Obesity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camilleri, Michael; Malhi, Harmeet; Acosta, Andres

    2017-01-01

    Obesity usually is associated with morbidity related to diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular diseases. However, there are many gastrointestinal and hepatic diseases for which obesity is the direct cause (eg, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease) or is a significant risk factor, such as reflux esophagitis and gallstones. When obesity is a risk factor, it may interact with other mechanisms and result in earlier presentation or complicated diseases. There are increased odds ratios or relative risks of several gastrointestinal complications of obesity: gastroesophageal reflux disease, erosive esophagitis, Barrett’s esophagus, esophageal adenocarcinoma, erosive gastritis, gastric cancer, diarrhea, colonic diverticular disease, polyps, cancer, liver disease including nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, gallstones, acute pancreatitis, and pancreatic cancer. Gastroenterologists are uniquely poised to participate in the multidisciplinary management of obesity as physicians caring for people with obesity-related diseases, in addition to their expertise in nutrition and endoscopic interventions. PMID:28192107

  13. Epidemic threshold in directed networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Cong; Wang, Huijuan; Van Mieghem, Piet

    2013-12-01

    Epidemics have so far been mostly studied in undirected networks. However, many real-world networks, such as the online social network Twitter and the world wide web, on which information, emotion, or malware spreads, are directed networks, composed of both unidirectional links and bidirectional links. We define the directionality ξ as the percentage of unidirectional links. The epidemic threshold τc for the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic is lower bounded by 1/λ1 in directed networks, where λ1, also called the spectral radius, is the largest eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix. In this work, we propose two algorithms to generate directed networks with a given directionality ξ. The effect of ξ on the spectral radius λ1, principal eigenvector x1, spectral gap (λ1-λ2), and algebraic connectivity μN-1 is studied. Important findings are that the spectral radius λ1 decreases with the directionality ξ, whereas the spectral gap and the algebraic connectivity increase with the directionality ξ. The extent of the decrease of the spectral radius depends on both the degree distribution and the degree-degree correlation ρD. Hence, in directed networks, the epidemic threshold is larger and a random walk converges to its steady state faster than that in undirected networks with the same degree distribution.

  14. Epidemic Synchronization in Robotic Swarms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schiøler, Henrik; Nielsen, Jens Frederik Dalsgaard; Ngo, Trung Dung

    2009-01-01

    Clock synchronization in swarms of networked mobile robots is studied in a probabilistic, epidemic framework. In this setting communication and synchonization is considered to be a randomized process, taking place at unplanned instants of geographical rendezvous between robots. In combination...... as an infinite-dimensional optimal controlproblem. Illustrative numerical examples are given and commented....

  15. Stochastic Processes in Epidemic Theory

    CERN Document Server

    Lefèvre, Claude; Picard, Philippe

    1990-01-01

    This collection of papers gives a representative cross-selectional view of recent developments in the field. After a survey paper by C. Lefèvre, 17 other research papers look at stochastic modeling of epidemics, both from a theoretical and a statistical point of view. Some look more specifically at a particular disease such as AIDS, malaria, schistosomiasis and diabetes.

  16. The First American Cocaine Epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Courtwright, David T.

    1991-01-01

    Discusses the wave of cocaine abuse that followed the drug's recommendation by the late nineteenth-century medical community as a cure all. Details drug addiction among ethnic and social groups at the turn of the century. Warns that drug epidemics have important social and legal consequences. Suggests legal pressure may alter the form of drug…

  17. Epidemic Synchronization in Robotic Swarms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schiøler, Henrik; Nielsen, Jens Frederik Dalsgaard; Ngo, Trung Dung

    2009-01-01

    Clock synchronization in swarms of networked mobile robots is studied in a probabilistic, epidemic framework. In this setting communication and synchonization is considered to be a randomized process, taking place at unplanned instants of geographical rendezvous between robots. In combination wit...

  18. Gastrointestinal food allergies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heine, Ralf G

    2015-01-01

    Gastrointestinal food allergies present during early childhood with a diverse range of symptoms. Cow's milk, soy and wheat are the three most common gastrointestinal food allergens. Several clinical syndromes have been described, including food protein-induced enteropathy, proctocolitis and enterocolitis. In contrast with immediate, IgE-mediated food allergies, the onset of gastrointestinal symptoms is delayed for at least 1-2 hours after ingestion in non-IgE-mediated allergic disorders. The pathophysiology of these non-IgE-mediated allergic disorders is poorly understood, and useful in vitro markers are lacking. The results of the skin prick test or measurement of the food-specific serum IgE level is generally negative, although low-positive results may occur. Diagnosis therefore relies on the recognition of a particular clinical phenotype as well as the demonstration of clear clinical improvement after food allergen elimination and the re-emergence of symptoms upon challenge. There is a significant clinical overlap between non-IgE-mediated food allergy and several common paediatric gastroenterological conditions, which may lead to diagnostic confusion. The treatment of gastrointestinal food allergies requires the strict elimination of offending food allergens until tolerance has developed. In breast-fed infants, a maternal elimination diet is often sufficient to control symptoms. In formula-fed infants, treatment usually involves the use an extensively hydrolysed or amino acid-based formula. Apart from the use of hypoallergenic formulae, the solid diets of these children also need to be kept free of specific food allergens, as clinically indicated. The nutritional progress of infants and young children should be carefully monitored, and they should undergo ongoing, regular food protein elimination reassessments by cautious food challenges to monitor for possible tolerance development. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  19. Upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feinman, Marcie; Haut, Elliott R

    2014-02-01

    Upper gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding remains a commonly encountered diagnosis for acute care surgeons. Initial stabilization and resuscitation of patients is imperative. Stable patients can have initiation of medical therapy and localization of the bleeding, whereas persistently unstable patients require emergent endoscopic or operative intervention. Minimally invasive techniques have surpassed surgery as the treatment of choice for most upper GI bleeding. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Two-stage effects of awareness cascade on epidemic spreading in multiplex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Quantong; Jiang, Xin; Lei, Yanjun; Li, Meng; Ma, Yifang; Zheng, Zhiming

    2015-01-01

    Human awareness plays an important role in the spread of infectious diseases and the control of propagation patterns. The dynamic process with human awareness is called awareness cascade, during which individuals exhibit herd-like behavior because they are making decisions based on the actions of other individuals [Borge-Holthoefer et al., J. Complex Networks 1, 3 (2013), 10.1093/comnet/cnt006]. In this paper, to investigate the epidemic spreading with awareness cascade, we propose a local awareness controlled contagion spreading model on multiplex networks. By theoretical analysis using a microscopic Markov chain approach and numerical simulations, we find the emergence of an abrupt transition of epidemic threshold βc with the local awareness ratio α approximating 0.5 , which induces two-stage effects on epidemic threshold and the final epidemic size. These findings indicate that the increase of α can accelerate the outbreak of epidemics. Furthermore, a simple 1D lattice model is investigated to illustrate the two-stage-like sharp transition at αc≈0.5 . The results can give us a better understanding of why some epidemics cannot break out in reality and also provide a potential access to suppressing and controlling the awareness cascading systems.

  1. Addressing Future Epidemics: Historical Human Rights Lessons from the AIDS Pandemic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ambar Mehta

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The Ebola epidemic in West Africa sparked many ethical and polarizing public health questions on how to adequately control transmission of the virus. These deliberations had and will continue to influence patients, healthcare workers, public perceptions of disease, and governmental responses. Such extensive and potential ramifications warranted an analysis of prior epidemics to sufficiently inform policy makers and prepare them and other authorities for future epidemics. We analyzed how the general public, medical institutions, federal government, and patients themselves responded during the early stages of the AIDS pandemic in two different countries and cultures, the United States and India. Discussion: Our analysis identified four key findings pertaining to the human rights of patients and healthcare workers and to the crucial roles of the government and medical community. The first demands that authoritative officials acknowledge the presence of high-risk behaviors and properly educate the public without stigmatizing groups of individuals. For this task, the medical community and federal government must form and display to the public a respectful and collaborative partnership towards battling the epidemic. These two synergistic endeavors will then allow appropriate officials to implement effective, yet civil, interventions for limiting transmission. Finally, the same officials must ensure that their interventions maintain the human rights of high-risk populations and of healthcare workers. Conclusions: Applying these findings to future epidemics of infectious diseases can aid policy makers in navigating complicated ethical and public health questions, and help prevent them from repeating past mistakes in handling epidemics.

  2. Infectious Diseases and Immunizations in International Adoption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obringer, Emily; Walsh, Linda

    2017-02-01

    Children who are adopted internationally have an increased risk of infectious diseases due to endemic conditions and variable access to preventive health care, such as vaccines, in their country of origin. Pediatricians and other providers who care for children should be familiar with the recommended screening for newly arrived international adoptees. Testing for gastrointestinal pathogens, tuberculosis, hepatitis, syphilis, and HIV should be routinely performed. Other endemic diseases and common skin infections may need to be assessed. Evaluation of the child's immunization record is also important, as nearly all international adoptees will require catch-up vaccines. The provider may also be asked to review medical records prior to adoption, provide travel advice, and ensure that parents and other close contacts are up-to-date on immunizations prior to the arrival of the newest family member. The pediatrician serves a unique role in facilitating the evaluation, treatment, and prevention of infectious diseases in international adoptees. [Pediatr Ann. 2017;46(2):e56-e60.]. Copyright 2017, SLACK Incorporated.

  3. Orexins and gastrointestinal functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baccari, M C

    2010-03-01

    Orexin A (OXA) and orexin B (OXB) are recently discovered neuropeptides that appear to play a role in various distinct functions such as arousal and the sleep-wake cycle as well as on appetite and regulation of feeding and energy homeostasis. Orexins were first described as neuropeptides expressed by a specific population of neurons in the lateral hypothalamic area, a region classically implicated in feeding behaviour. Orexin neurons project to numerous brain regions, where orexin receptors have been shown to be widely distributed: both OXA and OXB act through two subtypes of receptors (OX1R and OX2R) that belong to the G protein-coupled superfamily of receptors. Growing evidence indicates that orexins act in the central nervous system also to regulate gastrointestinal functions: animal studies have indeed demonstrated that centrally-injected orexins or endogenously released orexins in the brain stimulates gastric secretion and influence gastrointestinal motility. The subsequent identification of orexins and their receptors in the enteric nervous system (including the myenteric and the submucosal plexuses) as well as in mucosa and smooth muscles has suggested that these neuropeptides may also play a local action. In this view, emerging studies indicate that orexins also exert region-specific contractile or relaxant effects on isolated gut preparations. The aim of the proposed review is to summarize both centrally- and peripherally-mediated actions of orexins on gastrointestinal functions and to discuss the related physiological role on the basis of the most recent findings.

  4. Characterization and Function of the Inflammatory Response to Infection by a Gastrointestinal Nematode Parasite: New Insights into Protective Th2 Responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-01-01

    gastrointestinal nematode parasites;T. trichuris, T. muris , T suis. WT wild type. 1 Dissertation Introduction Background and Significance...and hosts2. Infectious parasites are responsible for a wide range of human diseases, including Leishmanisis, Malaria, Schistosomaisis, Giardia ...the gut to define more clearly protective mechanisms against gastrointestinal nematodes. Using a mouse whipworm model of Trichuris 81 muris

  5. Epidemics in adaptive networks with community structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, Leah; Tunc, Ilker

    2010-03-01

    Models for epidemic spread on static social networks do not account for changes in individuals' social interactions. Recent studies of adaptive networks have modeled avoidance behavior, as non-infected individuals try to avoid contact with infectives. Such models have not generally included realistic social structure. Here we study epidemic spread on an adaptive network with community structure. We model the effect of heterogeneous communities on infection levels and epidemic extinction. We also show how an epidemic can alter the community structure.

  6. Modeling the effects of social impact on epidemic spreading in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ni, Shunjiang; Weng, Wenguo; Zhang, Hui

    2011-11-01

    We investigate by mean-field analysis and extensive simulations the effects of social impact on epidemic spreading in various typical networks with two types of nodes: active nodes and passive nodes, of which the behavior patterns are modeled according to the social impact theory. In this study, nodes are not only the media to spread the virus, but also disseminate their opinions on the virus-whether there is a need for certain self-protection measures to be taken to reduce the risk of being infected. Our results indicate that the interaction between epidemic spreading and opinion dynamics can have significant influences on the spreading of infectious diseases and related applications, such as the implementation of prevention and control measures against the infectious diseases.

  7. Epidemics spreading in interconnected complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Y.; Xiao, G.

    2012-01-01

    We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. It is found that in our model the epidemic threshold of the interconnected network is always lower than that in any of the two component networks. Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. Theoretical analysis and simulation results show that, generally speaking, the epidemic size is not significantly affected by the inter-network correlation. In interdependent networks which can be viewed as a special case of interconnected networks, however, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant. -- Highlights: ► We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. ► The epidemic threshold is lower than that in any of the two networks. And Interconnection correlation has impacts on threshold and average outbreak size. ► Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. ► We demonstrated and proved that Interconnection correlation does not affect epidemic size significantly. ► In interdependent networks, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant.

  8. Epidemics spreading in interconnected complex networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Y. [School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798 (Singapore); Institute of High Performance Computing, Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A-STAR), Singapore 138632 (Singapore); Xiao, G., E-mail: egxxiao@ntu.edu.sg [School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798 (Singapore)

    2012-09-03

    We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. It is found that in our model the epidemic threshold of the interconnected network is always lower than that in any of the two component networks. Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. Theoretical analysis and simulation results show that, generally speaking, the epidemic size is not significantly affected by the inter-network correlation. In interdependent networks which can be viewed as a special case of interconnected networks, however, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant. -- Highlights: ► We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. ► The epidemic threshold is lower than that in any of the two networks. And Interconnection correlation has impacts on threshold and average outbreak size. ► Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. ► We demonstrated and proved that Interconnection correlation does not affect epidemic size significantly. ► In interdependent networks, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant.

  9. Public health interventions for epidemics: implications for multiple infection waves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wessel, Lindsay; Hua, Yi; Wu, Jianhong; Moghadas, Seyed M

    2011-02-25

    Epidemics with multiple infection waves have been documented for some human diseases, most notably during past influenza pandemics. While pathogen evolution, co-infection, and behavioural changes have been proposed as possible mechanisms for the occurrence of subsequent outbreaks, the effect of public health interventions remains undetermined. We develop mean-field and stochastic epidemiological models for disease transmission, and perform simulations to show how control measures, such as drug treatment and isolation of ill individuals, can influence the epidemic profile and generate sequences of infection waves with different characteristics. We demonstrate the impact of parameters representing the effectiveness and adverse consequences of intervention measures, such as treatment and emergence of drug resistance, on the spread of a pathogen in the population. If pathogen resistant strains evolve under drug pressure, multiple outbreaks are possible with variability in their characteristics, magnitude, and timing. In this context, the level of drug use and isolation capacity play an important role in the occurrence of subsequent outbreaks. Our simulations for influenza infection as a case study indicate that the intensive use of these interventions during the early stages of the epidemic could delay the spread of disease, but it may also result in later infection waves with possibly larger magnitudes. The findings highlight the importance of intervention parameters in the process of public health decision-making, and in evaluating control measures when facing substantial uncertainty regarding the epidemiological characteristics of an emerging infectious pathogen. Critical factors that influence population health including evolutionary responses of the pathogen under the pressure of different intervention measures during an epidemic should be considered for the design of effective strategies that address short-term targets compatible with long-term disease outcomes.

  10. Ethics, health policy, and Zika: From emergency to global epidemic?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamrozik, Euzebiusz; Selgelid, Michael J

    2018-05-01

    Zika virus was recognised in 2016 as an important vector-borne cause of congenital malformations and Guillain-Barré syndrome, during a major epidemic in Latin America, centred in Northeastern Brazil. The WHO and Pan American Health Organisation (PAHO), with partner agencies, initiated a coordinated global response including public health intervention and urgent scientific research, as well as ethical analysis as a vital element of policy design. In this paper, we summarise the major ethical issues raised during the Zika epidemic, highlighting the PAHO ethics guidance and the role of ethics in emergency responses, before turning to ethical issues that are yet to be resolved. Zika raises traditional bioethical issues related to reproduction, prenatal diagnosis of serious malformations and unjust disparities in health outcomes. But the epidemic has also highlighted important issues of growing interest in public health ethics, such as the international spread of infectious disease; the central importance of reproductive healthcare in preventing maternal and neonatal morbidity and mortality; diagnostic and reporting biases; vector control and the links between vectors, climate change, and disparities in the global burden of disease. Finally, there are controversies regarding Zika vaccine research and eventual deployment. Zika virus was a neglected disease for over 50 years before the outbreak in Brazil. As it continues to spread, public health agencies should promote gender equity and disease control efforts in Latin America, while preparing for the possibility of a global epidemic. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  11. INFECTIOUS MYXOMATOSIS OF RABBITS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smadel, Joseph E.; Ward, S. M.; Rivers, Thomas M.

    1940-01-01

    A second soluble antigen, separable from the virus, occurs in extracts of infected skin and in the serum of rabbits acutely ill with infectious myxomatosis. Like the first antigen (A), the second (B) is heat labile and has certain characteristics of a globulin. The two antigens precipitate in different concentrations of ammonium sulfate and can be separated by this method. Neither of the antigens after being heated at 56°C. precipitates in the presence of specific antibody but each is capable of inhibiting the activity of its antibody. PMID:19871012

  12. Feline infectious peritonitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodson, Teresa; Randell, Susan; Moore, Lisa

    2009-10-01

    Feline infectious peritonitis (FIP) frequently results in death in cats. It is caused by a mutated, highly contagious coronavirus, and it is more common in indoor cats in multicat households. A complex interaction between the coronavirus and the feline immune system causes disseminated vasculitis, which is the hallmark of FIP. New tests are being developed, but the antemortem diagnosis of FIP continues to be difficult and frustrating. Current treatments are crude and involve supportive care and immunosuppression. Minimizing exposure is the best method of preventing infection.

  13. [Equine Infectious Anemia (EIA)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaiser, A; Meier, H P; Straub, R; Gerber, V

    2009-04-01

    Equine Infectious Anemia (EIA) is a reportable, eradicable epizootic disease caused by the equine lentivirus of the retrovirus family which affects equids only and occurs worldwide. The virus is transmitted by blood, mainly by sanguivorous insects. The main symptoms of the disease are pyrexia, apathy, loss of body condition and weight, anemia, edema and petechia. However, infected horses can also be inapparent carriers without any overt signs. The disease is diagnosed by serological tests like the Coggins test and ELISA tests. Presently, Switzerland is offi cially free from EIA. However, Switzerland is permanently at risk of introducing the virus as cases of EIA have recently been reported in different European countries.

  14. Scale-dependent climatic drivers of human epidemics in ancient China

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Tian, H.; Yan, Ch.; Xu, L.; Büntgen, Ulf; Stenseth, N. C.; Zhang, Z.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 114, č. 49 (2017), s. 12970-12975 ISSN 0027-8424 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LO1415 Institutional support: RVO:86652079 Keywords : infectious-diseases * northern-hemisphere * cholera dynamics * time-series * 2 millennia * reconstruction * variability * management * plague * ad * epidemics * climate * scale dependent * natural disaster * disease Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour OBOR OECD: Environmental sciences (social aspects to be 5.7) Impact factor: 9.661, year: 2016

  15. Rabies epidemic model with uncertainty in parameters: crisp and fuzzy approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ndii, M. Z.; Amarti, Z.; Wiraningsih, E. D.; Supriatna, A. K.

    2018-03-01

    A deterministic mathematical model is formulated to investigate the transmission dynamics of rabies. In particular, we investigate the effects of vaccination, carrying capacity and the transmission rate on the rabies epidemics and allow for uncertainty in the parameters. We perform crisp and fuzzy approaches. We find that, in the case of crisp parameters, rabies epidemics may be interrupted when the carrying capacity and the transmission rate are not high. Our findings suggest that limiting the growth of dog population and reducing the potential contact between susceptible and infectious dogs may aid in interrupting rabies epidemics. We extend the work by considering a fuzzy carrying capacity and allow for low, medium, and high level of carrying capacity. The result confirms the results obtained by using crisp carrying capacity, that is, when the carrying capacity is not too high, the vaccination could confine the disease effectively.

  16. Evaluating neighborhood structures for modeling intercity diffusion of large-scale dengue epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Tzai-Hung; Hsu, Ching-Shun; Hu, Ming-Che

    2018-05-03

    Dengue fever is a vector-borne infectious disease that is transmitted by contact between vector mosquitoes and susceptible hosts. The literature has addressed the issue on quantifying the effect of individual mobility on dengue transmission. However, there are methodological concerns in the spatial regression model configuration for examining the effect of intercity-scale human mobility on dengue diffusion. The purposes of the study are to investigate the influence of neighborhood structures on intercity epidemic progression from pre-epidemic to epidemic periods and to compare definitions of different neighborhood structures for interpreting the spread of dengue epidemics. We proposed a framework for assessing the effect of model configurations on dengue incidence in 2014 and 2015, which were the most severe outbreaks in 70 years in Taiwan. Compared with the conventional model configuration in spatial regression analysis, our proposed model used a radiation model, which reflects population flow between townships, as a spatial weight to capture the structure of human mobility. The results of our model demonstrate better model fitting performance, indicating that the structure of human mobility has better explanatory power in dengue diffusion than the geometric structure of administration boundaries and geographic distance between centroids of cities. We also identified spatial-temporal hierarchy of dengue diffusion: dengue incidence would be influenced by its immediate neighboring townships during pre-epidemic and epidemic periods, and also with more distant neighbors (based on mobility) in pre-epidemic periods. Our findings suggest that the structure of population mobility could more reasonably capture urban-to-urban interactions, which implies that the hub cities could be a "bridge" for large-scale transmission and make townships that immediately connect to hub cities more vulnerable to dengue epidemics.

  17. [Globalization and infectious diseases].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirski, Tomasz; Bartoszcze, Michał; Bielawska-Drózd, Agata

    2011-01-01

    Globalization is a phenomenon characteristic of present times. It can be considered in various aspects: economic, environmental changes, demographic changes, as well as the development of new technologies. All these aspects of globalization have a definite influence on the emergence and spread of infectious diseases. Economic aspects ofglobalization are mainly the trade development, including food trade, which has an impact on the spread of food-borne diseases. The environmental changes caused by intensive development of industry, as a result of globalization, which in turn affects human health. The demographic changes are mainly people migration between countries and rural and urban areas, which essentially favors the global spread of many infectious diseases. While technological advances prevents the spread of infections, for example through better access to information, it may also increase the risk, for example through to create opportunities to travel into more world regions, including the endemic regions for various diseases. The phenomenon ofglobalization is also closely associated with the threat of terrorism, including bioterrorism. It forces the governments of many countries to develop effective programs to protect and fight against this threat.

  18. Equal Graph Partitioning on Estimated Infection Network as an Effective Epidemic Mitigation Measure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hadidjojo, Jeremy; Cheong, Siew Ann

    2011-01-01

    Controlling severe outbreaks remains the most important problem in infectious disease area. With time, this problem will only become more severe as population density in urban centers grows. Social interactions play a very important role in determining how infectious diseases spread, and organization of people along social lines gives rise to non-spatial networks in which the infections spread. Infection networks are different for diseases with different transmission modes, but are likely to be identical or highly similar for diseases that spread the same way. Hence, infection networks estimated from common infections can be useful to contain epidemics of a more severe disease with the same transmission mode. Here we present a proof-of-concept study demonstrating the effectiveness of epidemic mitigation based on such estimated infection networks. We first generate artificial social networks of different sizes and average degrees, but with roughly the same clustering characteristic. We then start SIR epidemics on these networks, censor the simulated incidences, and use them to reconstruct the infection network. We then efficiently fragment the estimated network by removing the smallest number of nodes identified by a graph partitioning algorithm. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of this targeted strategy, by comparing it against traditional untargeted strategies, in slowing down and reducing the size of advancing epidemics. PMID:21799777

  19. Multiple routes transmitted epidemics on multiplex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, Dawei; Li, Lixiang; Peng, Haipeng; Luo, Qun; Yang, Yixian

    2014-01-01

    This letter investigates the multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. We propose detailed theoretical analysis that allows us to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. It is found that the epidemic can spread across the multiplex network even if all the network layers are well below their respective epidemic thresholds. Strong positive degree–degree correlation of nodes in multiplex network could lead to a much lower epidemic threshold and a relatively smaller outbreak size. However, the average similarity of neighbors from different layers of nodes has no obvious effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. -- Highlights: •We studies multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. •SIR model and bond percolation theory are used to analyze the epidemic processes. •We derive equations to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •ASN has no effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •Strong positive DDC leads to a lower epidemic threshold and a smaller outbreak size.

  20. Multiple routes transmitted epidemics on multiplex networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhao, Dawei [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Computer Network, Shandong Computer Science Center, Jinan 250014 (China); Li, Lixiang [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Peng, Haipeng, E-mail: penghaipeng@bupt.edu.cn [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Luo, Qun; Yang, Yixian [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China)

    2014-02-01

    This letter investigates the multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. We propose detailed theoretical analysis that allows us to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. It is found that the epidemic can spread across the multiplex network even if all the network layers are well below their respective epidemic thresholds. Strong positive degree–degree correlation of nodes in multiplex network could lead to a much lower epidemic threshold and a relatively smaller outbreak size. However, the average similarity of neighbors from different layers of nodes has no obvious effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. -- Highlights: •We studies multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. •SIR model and bond percolation theory are used to analyze the epidemic processes. •We derive equations to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •ASN has no effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •Strong positive DDC leads to a lower epidemic threshold and a smaller outbreak size.

  1. Embolization for gastrointestinal hemorrhages

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kraemer, S.C.; Goerich, J.; Rilinger, N.; Aschoff, A.J.; Vogel, J.; Brambs, H.J.; Siech, M.

    2000-01-01

    Retrospective evaluation of interventional embolization therapy in the treatment of gastrointestinal hemorrhage over a long-term observation period from 1989 to 1997. Included in the study were 35 patients (age range 18-89 years) with gastrointestinal bleeding (GI) referred for radiological intervention either primarily or following unsuccessful endoscopy or surgery. Sources of GI bleeding included gastric and duodenal ulcers (n = 7), diverticula (n = 3), erosion of the intestinal wall secondary to malignancy (n = 6), vascular malformations (n = 4), and hemorrhoids (n = 2), as well as from postoperative (n = 6), posttraumatic (n = 2), postinflammatory (n = 4) or unknown (n = 1) causes. Ethibloc (12 cases) or metal coils (14 cases) were predominantly used as embolisates. In addition, combinations of tissue adhesive and gelfoam particles and of coils and Ethibloc were used (six cases). Finally, polyvinyl alcohol particles, a coated stent, and an arterial wire dissection were utilized in one case each. Bleeding was stopped completely in 29 of 35 cases (83 %). In one case (3 %) the source of bleeding was recognized but the corresponding vessel could not be catheterized. In five other cases (14 %) there was partial success with reduced, though still persistent, bleeding. The rate of complications was 14 %, including four instances of intestinal ischemia with fatal outcome in the first years, and, later, one partial infarction of the spleen without serious consequences. Gastrointestinal hemorrhage can be controlled in a high percentage of patients, including the seriously ill and those who had previously undergone surgery, with the use of minimally invasive interventional techniques. The availability of minicoils instead of fluid embolization agents has reduced the risk of serious complications. (orig.)

  2. Embolization for gastrointestinal hemorrhages

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kraemer, S.C.; Goerich, J.; Rilinger, N.; Aschoff, A.J.; Vogel, J.; Brambs, H.J. [Dept. of Diagnostic Radiology, University of Ulm (Germany); Siech, M. [Dept. of Abdominal Surgery, University of Ulm (Germany)

    2000-05-01

    Retrospective evaluation of interventional embolization therapy in the treatment of gastrointestinal hemorrhage over a long-term observation period from 1989 to 1997. Included in the study were 35 patients (age range 18-89 years) with gastrointestinal bleeding (GI) referred for radiological intervention either primarily or following unsuccessful endoscopy or surgery. Sources of GI bleeding included gastric and duodenal ulcers (n = 7), diverticula (n = 3), erosion of the intestinal wall secondary to malignancy (n = 6), vascular malformations (n = 4), and hemorrhoids (n = 2), as well as from postoperative (n = 6), posttraumatic (n = 2), postinflammatory (n = 4) or unknown (n = 1) causes. Ethibloc (12 cases) or metal coils (14 cases) were predominantly used as embolisates. In addition, combinations of tissue adhesive and gelfoam particles and of coils and Ethibloc were used (six cases). Finally, polyvinyl alcohol particles, a coated stent, and an arterial wire dissection were utilized in one case each. Bleeding was stopped completely in 29 of 35 cases (83 %). In one case (3 %) the source of bleeding was recognized but the corresponding vessel could not be catheterized. In five other cases (14 %) there was partial success with reduced, though still persistent, bleeding. The rate of complications was 14 %, including four instances of intestinal ischemia with fatal outcome in the first years, and, later, one partial infarction of the spleen without serious consequences. Gastrointestinal hemorrhage can be controlled in a high percentage of patients, including the seriously ill and those who had previously undergone surgery, with the use of minimally invasive interventional techniques. The availability of minicoils instead of fluid embolization agents has reduced the risk of serious complications. (orig.)

  3. in upper gastrointestinal endoscopy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sinan Uzman

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Introduction : There is increasing interest in sedation for upper gastrointestinal endoscopy (UGE. Prospective randomized studies comparing sedation properties and complications of propofol and midazolam/meperidine in upper gastrointestinal endoscopy (UGE are few. Aim: To compare propofol and midazolam/meperidine sedation for UGE in terms of cardiopulmonary side effects, patient and endoscopist satisfaction and procedure-related times. Material and methods: This was a prospective, randomized, double-blind study of propofol versus midazolam and meperidine in 100 patients scheduled for diagnostic upper gastrointestinal endoscopy. The patients were divided into propofol and midazolam/meperidine groups. Randomization was generated by a computer. Cardiopulmonary side effects (hypotension, bradycardia, hypoxemia, procedure-related times (endoscopy time, awake time, time to hospital discharge, and patient and endoscopist satisfaction were compared between groups. Results: There was no significant difference between the groups with respect to the cost, endoscopy time, or demographic and clinical characteristics of the patients. Awake time and time to hospital discharge were significantly shorter in the propofol group (6.58 ±4.72 vs. 9.32 ±4.26 min, p = 0.030 and 27.60 ±7.88 vs. 32.00 ±10.54 min, p = 0.019. Hypotension incidence was significantly higher in the propofol group (12% vs. 0%, p = 0.027. The patient and endoscopist satisfaction was better with propofol. Conclusions : Propofol may be preferred to midazolam/meperidine sedation, with a shorter awake and hospital discharge time and better patient and endoscopist satisfaction. However, hypotension risk should be considered with propofol, and careful evaluation is needed, particularly in cardiopulmonary disorders.

  4. Gastrointestinal Headache; a Narrative Review

    OpenAIRE

    Majid T Noghani; Hossein Rezaeizadeh; Sayed Mohammad Baqer Fazljoo; Mahmoud Yousefifard; Mansoor Keshavarz

    2016-01-01

    There are studies reporting primary headaches to be associated with gastrointestinal disorders, and some report resolution of headache following the treatment of the associated gastrointestinal disorder. Headache disorders are classified by The International Headache Society as primary or secondary; however, among the secondary headaches, those attributed to gastrointestinal disorders are not appreciated. Therefore, we aimed to review the literature to provide evidence for headaches, which or...

  5. Gastrointestinal and hepatobiliary radiology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Graham, R.N.J.; Perriss, R.W.; Scarsbrook, A.F.

    2006-01-01

    This is the fifth in the series of short reviews of internet-based radiological learning resources and will focus on gastrointestinal (GI) and hepatobiliary radiology. Below are details of a few of the higher quality resources currently available. Most of the sites cater for medical students and trainee or non-specialist radiologists, but may be also be of interest to specialists, especially for use in teaching. Hyperlinks are available in the electronic version of this article and were all active at the time of going to press (May 2006)

  6. Gastrointestinal stromal tumors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sufliarsky, J.

    2011-01-01

    Gastrointestinal stromal tumours (GISTs) are the most common mesenchymal tumours of the digestive tract. Better understanding of the molecular characteristics of GISTs led to the clinical development of imatinib for treating patients with this disease. New immuno markers and mechanisms of primary and secondary resistance were discovered. Adjuvant imatinib in intermediate or high risk GIST has improved the recurrence-free survival. Sunitinib in patients with intolerance or progression on imatinib demonstrated significant improvements in progression-free and overall survival versus placebo. Second-generation tyrosine kinase inhibitors, such as sorafenib, dasatinib, and nilotinib, have shown activity in patients with imatinib- and sunitinib-resistant GIST. (author)

  7. The Forgotten Plague: Psychiatric Manifestations of Ebola, Zika, and Emerging Infectious Diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucci, Veronica; Moukaddam, Nidal; Meadows, Jonathan; Shah, Suhal; Galwankar, Sagar C; Kapur, G Bobby

    2017-01-01

    The media and public health generally focus on the biological and physical ramifications of epidemics. Mental health issues that coincide with emerging diseases and epidemics are rarely examined and sometimes, even eschewed due to cultural considerations. Psychiatric manifestations of various infectious diseases, especially with a focus on Ebola Virus disease (EVD) and Zika Virus, are discussed in this commentary to illustrate the continued need of care after the resolution of the actual illness. Various infectious diseases have associations with mental illness, such as an increased risk of obsessive-compulsive disorders and Tourette syndrome in children with Group B streptococcal infection. Current EVD literature does not demonstrate a strong association of mental illness symptoms or diseases but there is a necessity of care that extends beyond the illness. Patients and their families experience depression, anxiety, trauma, suicidal ideation, panic and other manifestations. Zika virus has been associated neuronal injury, genetic alteration that affects fetal development and detrimental maternal mental health symptoms are being documented. While funding calls from the international community are present, there are no specific epidemiological data or fiscal estimates solely for mental health during or after infectious diseases epidemics or disasters that support health care providers and strengthen policies and procedures for responding to such situations. Therefore, those on the frontlines of epidemics including emergency physicians, primary care providers and infectious disease specialists should serve communicate this need and advocate for sustained and increased funding for mental health programs to heighten public awareness regarding acute psychiatric events during infectious diseases outbreaks and offer treatment and support when necessary.

  8. Epidemic processes in complex networks

    OpenAIRE

    Pastor Satorras, Romualdo; Castellano, Claudio; Van Mieghem, Piet; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2015-01-01

    In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide range of biological and sociotechnical systems. The complex properties of real-world networks have a profound impact on the behavior of equilibrium and nonequilibrium phenomena occurring in various systems, and the study of epidemic spreading is central to our understanding of the unfolding of dynamical processes in complex networks. The t...

  9. Gastrointestinal Manifestations of Cystic Fibrosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Cystic fibrosis has historically been considered a pulmonary disease, but with the increasing life expectancy of these patients, gastrointestinal manifestations are becoming more important. Furthermore, nutritional status is closely linked to pulmonary function and, thus, overall mortality. This article discusses gastrointestinal manifestations (which involve nutritional, pancreatic, hepatobiliary, and, in particular, gastrointestinal tract issues) of cystic fibrosis as well as management of the disease. In addition, the article discusses studies that have been critical to our understanding of gastrointestinal manifestations of cystic fibrosis. PMID:27330503

  10. A Highly Infectious Disease Care Network in the US Healthcare System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le, Aurora B; Biddinger, Paul D; Smith, Philip W; Herstein, Jocelyn J; Levy, Deborah A; Gibbs, Shawn G; Lowe, John J

    During the 2014-15 Ebola outbreak in West Africa, the United States responded by stratifying hospitals into 1 of 3 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)-designated categories-based on the hospital's ability to identify, isolate, assess, and provide care to patients with suspected or confirmed Ebola virus disease (EVD)-in an attempt to position the US healthcare system to safely isolate and care for potential patients. Now, with the Ebola epidemic quelled, it is crucial that we act on the lessons learned from the EVD response to broaden our national perspective on infectious disease mitigation and management, build on our newly enhanced healthcare capabilities to respond to infectious disease threats, develop a more cost-effective and sustainable model of infectious disease prevention, and continue to foster training so that the nation is not in a vulnerable position once more. We propose the formal creation of a US Highly Infectious Disease Care Network (HIDCN) modeled after 2 previous highly infectious disease consensus efforts in the United States and the European Union. A US Highly Infectious Disease Care Network can provide a common platform for the exchange of training, protocols, research, knowledge, and capability sharing among high-level isolation units. Furthermore, we envision the network will cultivate relationships among facilities and serve as a means of establishing national standards for infectious disease response, which will strengthen domestic preparedness and the nation's ability to respond to the next highly infectious disease threat.

  11. Changes of Global Infectious Disease Governance in 2000s: Rise of Global Health Security and Transformation of Infectious Disease Control System in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Eun Kyung; Lee, Jong-Koo

    2016-12-01

    This paper focus upon the changes of global infectious disease governance in 2000s and the transformation of infectious disease control system in South Korea. Traditionally, infectious disease was globally governed by the quarantine regulated by the international conventions. When an infectious disease outbreak occurred in one country, each country prevented transmission of the disease through the standardized quarantine since the installation of international sanitary convention in 1892. Republic of Korea also organized the infectious disease control system with quarantine and disease report procedure after the establishment of government. Additionally, Korea National Health Institute(KNIH) was founded as research and training institute for infectious disease. However, traditional international health regulation system faced a serious challenge by the appearance of emerging and re-emerging infectious disease in 1990s. As a result, global infectious disease governance was rapidly changed under the demand to global disease surveillance and response. Moreover, global health security frame became important after 2001 bioterror and 2003 SARS outbreak. Consequently, international health regulation was fully revised in 2005, which included not only infectious disease but also public health emergency. The new international health regime was differently characterized in several aspects; reinforcement of global cooperation and surveillance, enlargement of the role of supranational and international agencies, and reorganization of national capacity. KNIH was reorganized with epidemic control and research since late 1990s. However, in 2004 Korea Center for Disease Control and Prevention(KCDC) was established as a disease control institution with combining quarantine and other functions after 2003 SARS outbreak. KCDC unified national function against infectious disease including prevention, protection, response and research, as a national representative in disease control. The

  12. Changes of Global Infectious Disease Governance in 2000s: Rise of Global Health Security and Transformation of Infectious Disease Control System in South Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eun Kyung CHOI

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper focus upon the changes of global infectious disease governance in 2000s and the transformation of infectious disease control system in South Korea. Traditionally, infectious disease was globally governed by the quarantine regulated by the international conventions. When an infectious disease outbreak occurred in one country, each country prevented transmission of the disease through the standardized quarantine since the installation of international sanitary convention in 1892. Republic of Korea also organized the infectious disease control system with quarantine and disease report procedure after the establishment of government. Additionally, Korea National Health Institute(KNIH was founded as research and training institute for infectious disease. However, traditional international health regulation system faced a serious challenge by the appearance of emerging and re-emerging infectious disease in 1990s. As a result, global infectious disease governance was rapidly changed under the demand to global disease surveillance and response. Moreover, global health security frame became important after 2001 bioterror and 2003 SARS outbreak. Consequently, international health regulation was fully revised in 2005, which included not only infectious disease but also public health emergency. The new international health regime was differently characterized in several aspects; reinforcement of global cooperation and surveillance, enlargement of the role of supranational and international agencies, and reorganization of national capacity. KNIH was reorganized with epidemic control and research since late 1990s. However, in 2004 Korea Center for Disease Control and Prevention(KCDC was established as a disease control institution with combining quarantine and other functions after 2003 SARS outbreak. KCDC unified national function against infectious disease including prevention, protection, response and research, as a national representative in

  13. Gastrointestinal Eosinofilic Disorders

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodriguez Maria, Roberto; Bohorquez, Maria Amalia; Gonzalez, Irene; Torregroza, Gustavo

    2007-01-01

    The gastrointestinal eosinofilic disorders are little frequent diseases, of etiopatogenia little clear, that are characterized by the presence of an infiltrated eosinofilo that can affect the different layers of the wall of the alimentary canal in absence of known causes of eosinofilia. The clinical manifestations are variable and the symptoms are conditioned by the degree of eosinofilia of the wall, the number of layers affected and the segment of the gastrointestinal tract implied. The presentations symptoms vary from diarrhea, vomits, abdominal pain and loss of weigh until the acute intestinal obstruction. They are characterized to present peripherical eosinofilia, although it is not a forced criterion. Its definite diagnosis is anatomopatologic. The steroid use is considered as the angular stone of the treatment. We present two cases, with different clinical presentation forms, with initial answer to steroids and later relapse after the suspension of these, remaining without symptoms actually with dependency of low doses of steroids. Next we will do the revision of the available literature emphasizing the pathophysiologic data, the clinical evaluation and the therapeutic aspects

  14. Gastrointestinal medications and breastfeeding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagemann, T M

    1998-09-01

    Medications used to treat gastrointestinal symptoms are increasingly being used as more have been gained nonprescription status. Most of the gastrointestinal medications, such as laxatives, antacids, and antidiarrheal agents, are used short term. Women who breastfeed should be aware of the risks of taking any medications, whether prescription or nonprescription. There is little information describing transfer into breast milk for many of these products. Cimetidine, atropine, cascara, cisapride, loperamide, magnesium sulfate, and senna are the only products identified by the AAP as compatible with breast feeding. Metoclopramide is listed by the AAP as a drug whose effect on nursing infants is unknown but may be of potential concern, although studies published to date have not reported any adverse effects. The safest laxatives and antidiarrheals are those that are not absorbed and should be considered first-line therapy for conditions of constipation or loose stools. Famotidine and nizatidine are excreted into breast milk to a lesser extent than cimetidine or ranitidine and may be the preferred histamine antagonists. Despite the limited data on the use of cisapride in nursing women, it is considered safe by the AAP and may be preferred over metoclopramide for first-line prescription treatment of heartburn. Although most of these agents appear safe in the nursing infant, caretakers should be aware of the potential adverse reactions that may occur in infants whose mothers require these products.

  15. Wetlands and infectious diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert H. Zimmerman

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available There is a historical association between wetlands and infectious disease that has led to the modification of wetlands to prevent disease. At the same time there has been the development of water resources projects that increase the risk of disease. The demand for more water development projects and the increased pressure to make natural wetlands economically beneficial creates the need for an ecological approach to wetland management and health assessment. The environmental and health interactions are many. There is a need to take into account the landscape, spatial boundaries, and cross-boundary interactions in water development projects as well as alternative methods to provide water for human needs. The research challenges that need to be addressed are discussed.

  16. Economic Incentives in the Socially Optimal Management of Infectious Disease: When [Formula: see text] is Not Enough.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morin, B R; Kinzig, A P; Levin, S A; Perrings, C A

    2017-09-29

    Does society benefit from encouraging or discouraging private infectious disease-risk mitigation? Private individuals routinely mitigate infectious disease risks through the adoption of a range of precautions, from vaccination to changes in their contact with others. Such precautions have epidemiological consequences. Private disease-risk mitigation generally reduces both peak prevalence of symptomatic infection and the number of people who fall ill. At the same time, however, it can prolong an epidemic. A reduction in prevalence is socially beneficial. Prolongation of an epidemic is not. We find that for a large class of infectious diseases, private risk mitigation is socially suboptimal-either too low or too high. The social optimum requires either more or less private mitigation. Since private mitigation effort depends on the cost of mitigation and the cost of illness, interventions that change either of these costs may be used to alter mitigation decisions. We model the potential for instruments that affect the cost of illness to yield net social benefits. We find that where a disease is not very infectious or the duration of illness is short, it may be socially optimal to promote private mitigation effort by increasing the cost of illness. By contrast, where a disease is highly infectious or long lasting, it may be optimal to discourage private mitigation by reducing the cost of disease. Society would prefer a shorter, more intense, epidemic to a longer, less intense epidemic. There is, however, a region in parameter space where the relationship is more complicated. For moderately infectious diseases with medium infectious periods, the social optimum depends on interactions between prevalence and duration. Basic reproduction numbers are not sufficient to predict the social optimum.

  17. Moving Beyond Too Little, Too Late: Managing Emerging Infectious Diseases in Wild Populations Requires International Policy and Partnerships

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamie Voyles; A. Marm Kilpatrick; James P. Collins; Matthew C. Fisher; Winifred F. Frick; Hamish McCallum; Craig K. R. Willis; David S. Blehert; Kris A. Murray; Robert Puschendorf; Erica Bree Rosenblum; Benjamin M. Bolker; Tina L. Cheng; Kate E. Langwig; Daniel L. Lindner; Mary Toothman; Mark Q. Wilber; Cheryl J. Briggs

    2015-01-01

    Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) are on the rise due to multiple factors, including human facilitated movement of pathogens, broad-scale landscape changes, and perturbations to ecological systems (Jones et al. 2008; Fisher et al. 2012). Epidemics in wildlife are problematic because they can lead to pathogen spillover to new host organisms, erode biodiversity and...

  18. 75 FR 24835 - Infectious Diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-05-06

    ... and Docket Office's normal business hours, 8:15 a.m.-4:45 p.m., EST. Instructions: All submissions... infectious agents, radiation and chemicals. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports that for 2008, the... infectious diseases to patients and HCWs. This fundamental approach is set forth in the guidelines of the...

  19. Infectious Diseases in Day Care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sleator, Esther K.

    Discussed in this publication are infectious illnesses for which children attending day care appear to be at special risk. Also covered are the common cold, some infectious disease problems receiving media attention, and some other annoying but not serious diseases, such as head lice, pinworms, and contagious skin conditions. Causes,…

  20. Gastrointestinal Headache; a Narrative Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Majid T Noghani

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available There are studies reporting primary headaches to be associated with gastrointestinal disorders, and some report resolution of headache following the treatment of the associated gastrointestinal disorder. Headache disorders are classified by The International Headache Society as primary or secondary; however, among the secondary headaches, those attributed to gastrointestinal disorders are not appreciated. Therefore, we aimed to review the literature to provide evidence for headaches, which originate from the gastrointestinal system. Gastrointestinal disorders that are reported to be associated with primary headaches include dyspepsia, gastro esophageal reflux disease (GERD, constipation, functional abdominal pain, inflammatory bowel syndrome (IBS, inflammatory bowel disorders (IBD, celiac disease, and helicobacter pylori (H. Pylori infection. Some studies have demonstrated remission or improvement of headache following the treatment of the accompanying gastrointestinal disorders. Hypotheses explaining this association are considered to be central sensitization and parasympathetic referred pain, serotonin pathways, autonomic nervous system dysfunction, systemic vasculopathy, and food allergy. Traditional Persian physicians, namely Ebn-e-Sina (Avicenna and Râzi (Rhazes believed in a type of headache originating from disorders of the stomach and named it as an individual entity, the "Participatory Headache of Gastric Origin". We suggest providing a unique diagnostic entity for headaches coexisting with any gastrointestinal abnormality that are improved or cured along with the treatment of the gastrointestinal disorder.

  1. Infectious prion diseases in humans: cannibalism, iatrogenicity and zoonoses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haïk, Stéphane; Brandel, Jean-Philippe

    2014-08-01

    In contrast with other neurodegenerative disorders associated to protein misfolding, human prion diseases include infectious forms (also called transmitted forms) such as kuru, iatrogenic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease and variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease. The transmissible agent is thought to be solely composed of the abnormal isoform (PrP(Sc)) of the host-encoded prion protein that accumulated in the central nervous system of affected individuals. Compared to its normal counterpart, PrP(Sc) is β-sheet enriched and aggregated and its propagation is based on an autocatalytic conversion process. Increasing evidence supports the view that conformational variations of PrP(Sc) encoded the biological properties of the various prion strains that have been isolated by transmission studies in experimental models. Infectious forms of human prion diseases played a pivotal role in the emergence of the prion concept and in the characterization of the very unconventional properties of prions. They provide a unique model to understand how prion strains are selected and propagate in humans. Here, we review and discuss how genetic factors interplay with strain properties and route of transmission to influence disease susceptibility, incubation period and phenotypic expression in the light of the kuru epidemics due to ritual endocannibalism, the various series iatrogenic diseases secondary to extractive growth hormone treatment or dura mater graft and the epidemics of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease linked to dietary exposure to the agent of bovine spongiform encephalopathy. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Scale-dependent climatic drivers of human epidemics in ancient China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Huidong; Yan, Chuan; Xu, Lei; Büntgen, Ulf; Stenseth, Nils C; Zhang, Zhibin

    2017-12-05

    A wide range of climate change-induced effects have been implicated in the prevalence of infectious diseases. Disentangling causes and consequences, however, remains particularly challenging at historical time scales, for which the quality and quantity of most of the available natural proxy archives and written documentary sources often decline. Here, we reconstruct the spatiotemporal occurrence patterns of human epidemics for large parts of China and most of the last two millennia. Cold and dry climate conditions indirectly increased the prevalence of epidemics through the influences of locusts and famines. Our results further reveal that low-frequency, long-term temperature trends mainly contributed to negative associations with epidemics, while positive associations of epidemics with droughts, floods, locusts, and famines mainly coincided with both higher and lower frequency temperature variations. Nevertheless, unstable relationships between human epidemics and temperature changes were observed on relatively smaller time scales. Our study suggests that an intertwined, direct, and indirect array of biological, ecological, and societal responses to different aspects of past climatic changes strongly depended on the frequency domain and study period chosen.

  3. Defining epidemics in computer simulation models: How do definitions influence conclusions?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carolyn Orbann

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Computer models have proven to be useful tools in studying epidemic disease in human populations. Such models are being used by a broader base of researchers, and it has become more important to ensure that descriptions of model construction and data analyses are clear and communicate important features of model structure. Papers describing computer models of infectious disease often lack a clear description of how the data are aggregated and whether or not non-epidemic runs are excluded from analyses. Given that there is no concrete quantitative definition of what constitutes an epidemic within the public health literature, each modeler must decide on a strategy for identifying epidemics during simulation runs. Here, an SEIR model was used to test the effects of how varying the cutoff for considering a run an epidemic changes potential interpretations of simulation outcomes. Varying the cutoff from 0% to 15% of the model population ever infected with the illness generated significant differences in numbers of dead and timing variables. These results are important for those who use models to form public health policy, in which questions of timing or implementation of interventions might be answered using findings from computer simulation models.

  4. Behavioral Responses to Epidemics in an Online Experiment: Using Virtual Diseases to Study Human Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Frederick; Griffith, Amanda; Cottrell, Allin; Wong, Yue-Ling

    2013-01-01

    We report the results of a study we conducted using a simple multiplayer online game that simulates the spread of an infectious disease through a population composed of the players. We use our virtual epidemics game to examine how people respond to epidemics. The analysis shows that people's behavior is responsive to the cost of self-protection, the reported prevalence of disease, and their experiences earlier in the epidemic. Specifically, decreasing the cost of self-protection increases the rate of safe behavior. Higher reported prevalence also raises the likelihood that individuals would engage in self-protection, where the magnitude of this effect depends on how much time has elapsed in the epidemic. Individuals' experiences in terms of how often an infection was acquired when they did not engage in self-protection are another factor that determines whether they will invest in preventive measures later on. All else being equal, individuals who were infected at a higher rate are more likely to engage in self-protective behavior compared to those with a lower rate of infection. Lastly, fixing everything else, people's willingness to engage in safe behavior waxes or wanes over time, depending on the severity of an epidemic: when prevalence is high, people are more likely to adopt self-protective measures as time goes by; when prevalence is low, a ‘self-protection fatigue’ effect sets in whereby individuals are less willing to engage in safe behavior over time. PMID:23326360

  5. The Western Africa ebola virus disease epidemic exhibits both global exponential and local polynomial growth rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowell, Gerardo; Viboud, Cécile; Hyman, James M; Simonsen, Lone

    2015-01-21

    While many infectious disease epidemics are initially characterized by an exponential growth in time, we show that district-level Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreaks in West Africa follow slower polynomial-based growth kinetics over several generations of the disease. We analyzed epidemic growth patterns at three different spatial scales (regional, national, and subnational) of the Ebola virus disease epidemic in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia by compiling publicly available weekly time series of reported EVD case numbers from the patient database available from the World Health Organization website for the period 05-Jan to 17-Dec 2014. We found significant differences in the growth patterns of EVD cases at the scale of the country, district, and other subnational administrative divisions. The national cumulative curves of EVD cases in Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia show periods of approximate exponential growth. In contrast, local epidemics are asynchronous and exhibit slow growth patterns during 3 or more EVD generations, which can be better approximated by a polynomial than an exponential function. The slower than expected growth pattern of local EVD outbreaks could result from a variety of factors, including behavior changes, success of control interventions, or intrinsic features of the disease such as a high level of clustering. Quantifying the contribution of each of these factors could help refine estimates of final epidemic size and the relative impact of different mitigation efforts in current and future EVD outbreaks.

  6. Probiotics for Gastrointestinal Conditions: A Summary of the Evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkins, Thad; Sequoia, Jacqueline

    2017-08-01

    Probiotics contain microorganisms, most of which are bacteria similar to the beneficial bacteria that occur naturally in the human gut. Probiotics have been widely studied in a variety of gastrointestinal diseases. The most-studied species include Lactobacillus, Bifidobacterium, and Saccharomyces. However, a lack of clear guidelines on when to use probiotics and the most effective probiotic for different gastrointestinal conditions may be confusing for family physicians and their patients. Probiotics have an important role in the maintenance of immunologic equilibrium in the gastrointestinal tract through the direct interaction with immune cells. Probiotic effectiveness can be species-, dose-, and disease-specific, and the duration of therapy depends on the clinical indication. There is high-quality evidence that probiotics are effective for acute infectious diarrhea, antibiotic-associated diarrhea, Clostridium difficile- associated diarrhea, hepatic encephalopathy, ulcerative colitis, irritable bowel syndrome, functional gastrointestinal disorders, and necrotizing enterocolitis. Conversely, there is evidence that probiotics are not effective for acute pancreatitis and Crohn disease. Probiotics are safe for infants, children, adults, and older patients, but caution is advised in immunologically vulnerable populations.

  7. Leveraging social networks for understanding the evolution of epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background To understand how infectious agents disseminate throughout a population it is essential to capture the social model in a realistic manner. This paper presents a novel approach to modeling the propagation of the influenza virus throughout a realistic interconnection network based on actual individual interactions which we extract from online social networks. The advantage is that these networks can be extracted from existing sources which faithfully record interactions between people in their natural environment. We additionally allow modeling the characteristics of each individual as well as customizing his daily interaction patterns by making them time-dependent. Our purpose is to understand how the infection spreads depending on the structure of the contact network and the individuals who introduce the infection in the population. This would help public health authorities to respond more efficiently to epidemics. Results We implement a scalable, fully distributed simulator and validate the epidemic model by comparing the simulation results against the data in the 2004-2005 New York State Department of Health Report (NYSDOH), with similar temporal distribution results for the number of infected individuals. We analyze the impact of different types of connection models on the virus propagation. Lastly, we analyze and compare the effects of adopting several different vaccination policies, some of them based on individual characteristics -such as age- while others targeting the super-connectors in the social model. Conclusions This paper presents an approach to modeling the propagation of the influenza virus via a realistic social model based on actual individual interactions extracted from online social networks. We implemented a scalable, fully distributed simulator and we analyzed both the dissemination of the infection and the effect of different vaccination policies on the progress of the epidemics. The epidemic values predicted by our simulator match

  8. Leveraging social networks for understanding the evolution of epidemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martín Gonzalo

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background To understand how infectious agents disseminate throughout a population it is essential to capture the social model in a realistic manner. This paper presents a novel approach to modeling the propagation of the influenza virus throughout a realistic interconnection network based on actual individual interactions which we extract from online social networks. The advantage is that these networks can be extracted from existing sources which faithfully record interactions between people in their natural environment. We additionally allow modeling the characteristics of each individual as well as customizing his daily interaction patterns by making them time-dependent. Our purpose is to understand how the infection spreads depending on the structure of the contact network and the individuals who introduce the infection in the population. This would help public health authorities to respond more efficiently to epidemics. Results We implement a scalable, fully distributed simulator and validate the epidemic model by comparing the simulation results against the data in the 2004-2005 New York State Department of Health Report (NYSDOH, with similar temporal distribution results for the number of infected individuals. We analyze the impact of different types of connection models on the virus propagation. Lastly, we analyze and compare the effects of adopting several different vaccination policies, some of them based on individual characteristics -such as age- while others targeting the super-connectors in the social model. Conclusions This paper presents an approach to modeling the propagation of the influenza virus via a realistic social model based on actual individual interactions extracted from online social networks. We implemented a scalable, fully distributed simulator and we analyzed both the dissemination of the infection and the effect of different vaccination policies on the progress of the epidemics. The epidemic values

  9. Scintigraphic assessment of gastrointestinal motility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Jan Lysgård

    2014-01-01

    intestinal and colonic transit. This article reviews current imaging techniques, methods for data processing and principles for evaluating results when scintigraphy is used to assess gastrointestinal motility. Furthermore, clinical indications for performing scintigraphy are reviewed.......Gastrointestinal transit reflects overall gastrointestinal motor activity and is regulated by a complex interplay between neural and hormonal stimuli. Thus, transit measurements provide a measure of the combined effects of gastrointestinal muscular activity and feedback from the gut and brain....... Dysmotility in the different major segments of the gastrointestinal tract may give rise to similar symptoms; hence, localizing transit abnormalities to a specific segment is a valuable element of diagnostic evaluation. Scintigraphy is an effective noninvasive tool to assess gastric emptying as well as small...

  10. The immunology of the allergy epidemic and the hygiene hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambrecht, Bart N; Hammad, Hamida

    2017-09-19

    The immunology of the hygiene hypothesis of allergy is complex and involves the loss of cellular and humoral immunoregulatory pathways as a result of the adoption of a Western lifestyle and the disappearance of chronic infectious diseases. The influence of diet and reduced microbiome diversity now forms the foundation of scientific thinking on how the allergy epidemic occurred, although clear mechanistic insights into the process in humans are still lacking. Here we propose that barrier epithelial cells are heavily influenced by environmental factors and by microbiome-derived danger signals and metabolites, and thus act as important rheostats for immunoregulation, particularly during early postnatal development. Preventive strategies based on this new knowledge could exploit the diversity of the microbial world and the way humans react to it, and possibly restore old symbiotic relationships that have been lost in recent times, without causing disease or requiring a return to an unhygienic life style.

  11. Dynamical Analysis of SIR Epidemic Models with Distributed Delay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wencai Zhao

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available SIR epidemic models with distributed delay are proposed. Firstly, the dynamical behaviors of the model without vaccination are studied. Using the Jacobian matrix, the stability of the equilibrium points of the system without vaccination is analyzed. The basic reproduction number R is got. In order to study the important role of vaccination to prevent diseases, the model with distributed delay under impulsive vaccination is formulated. And the sufficient conditions of globally asymptotic stability of “infection-free” periodic solution and the permanence of the model are obtained by using Floquet’s theorem, small-amplitude perturbation skills, and comparison theorem. Lastly, numerical simulation is presented to illustrate our main conclusions that vaccination has significant effects on the dynamical behaviors of the model. The results can provide effective tactic basis for the practical infectious disease prevention.

  12. Oscillations in epidemic models with spread of awareness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Just, Winfried; Saldaña, Joan; Xin, Ying

    2018-03-01

    We study ODE models of epidemic spreading with a preventive behavioral response that is triggered by awareness of the infection. Previous studies of such models have mostly focused on the impact of the response on the initial growth of an outbreak and the existence and location of endemic equilibria. Here we study the question whether this type of response is sufficient to prevent future flare-ups from low endemic levels if awareness is assumed to decay over time. In the ODE context, such flare-ups would translate into sustained oscillations with significant amplitudes. Our results show that such oscillations are ruled out in Susceptible-Aware-Infectious-Susceptible models with a single compartment of aware hosts, but can occur if we consider two distinct compartments of aware hosts who differ in their willingness to alert other susceptible hosts.

  13. Disease Extinction Versus Persistence in Discrete-Time Epidemic Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Driessche, P; Yakubu, Abdul-Aziz

    2018-04-12

    We focus on discrete-time infectious disease models in populations that are governed by constant, geometric, Beverton-Holt or Ricker demographic equations, and give a method for computing the basic reproduction number, [Formula: see text]. When [Formula: see text] and the demographic population dynamics are asymptotically constant or under geometric growth (non-oscillatory), we prove global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium of the disease models. Under the same demographic assumption, when [Formula: see text], we prove uniform persistence of the disease. We apply our theoretical results to specific discrete-time epidemic models that are formulated for SEIR infections, cholera in humans and anthrax in animals. Our simulations show that a unique endemic equilibrium of each of the three specific disease models is asymptotically stable whenever [Formula: see text].

  14. Assessing node risk and vulnerability in epidemics on networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, T.

    2015-01-01

    Which nodes are most vulnerable to an epidemic spreading through a network, and which carry the highest risk of causing a major outbreak if they are the source of the infection? Here we show how these questions can be answered to good approximation using the cavity method. Several curious properties of node vulnerability and risk are explored: some nodes are more vulnerable than others to weaker infections, yet less vulnerable to stronger ones; a node is always more likely to be caught in an outbreak than it is to start one, except when the disease has a deterministic lifetime; the rank order of node risk depends on the details of the distribution of infectious periods.

  15. The gastrointestinal tract

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bartels, Else M.; Harrison, Adrian Paul

    2009-01-01

    The gastrointestinal tract (GIT) has always been and remains a major source of interest in terms of both its function, and its malfunction. Our current knowledge of age-related changes in this system, as well as drug-food interactions, however, remains relatively limited. Paradoxically, the GIT......-related GIT damage and dysfunction. New and novel aspects of drug delivery and drug-dietary supplement interactions are discusses and much needed areas of focus in terms of drug GIT testing are identified....... is not one of the core battery of tests that pharmaceutical companies are obliged to investigate as part of drug development. This review aims to cover the basics of GIT function before highlighting aspects of relevance for safety pharmacology in terms of age, cancerogenesis, and noth drug and diet...

  16. Estrogen and gastrointestinal malignancy.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Hogan, A M

    2012-02-01

    The concept that E2 exerts an effect on the gastrointestinal tract is not new and its actions on intestinal mucosa have been investigated for at least three decades. An attempt to consolidate results of these investigations generates more questions than answers, thus suggesting that many unexplored avenues remain and that the full capabilities of this steroid hormone are far from understood. Evidence of its role in esophageal, gastric and gallbladder cancers is confusing and often equivocal. The most compelling evidence regards the protective role conferred by estrogen (or perhaps ERbeta) against the development and proliferation of colon cancer. Not only has the effect been described but also many mechanisms of action have been explored. It is likely that, along with surgery, chemotherapy and radiotherapy, hormonal manipulation will play an integral role in colon cancer management in the very near future.

  17. Research on Modularized Design and Allocation of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Equipment in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Xin; Wang, Yun-Dou; Zhang, Xiao-Feng; Gao, Shu-Tian; Guo, Li-Jun; Sun, Li-Na

    2017-06-01

    For the prevention and control of newly emergent or sudden infectious diseases, we built an on-site, modularized prevention and control system and tested the equipment by using the clustering analysis method. On the basis of this system, we propose a modular equipment allocation method and 4 applications of this method for different types of infectious disease prevention and control. This will help to improve the efficiency and productivity of anti-epidemic emergency forces and will provide strong technical support for implementing more universal and serialized equipment in China. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;11:375-382).

  18. Developing stochastic epidemiological models to quantify the dynamics of infectious diseases in domestic livestock.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacKenzie, K; Bishop, S C

    2001-08-01

    A stochastic model describing disease transmission dynamics for a microparasitic infection in a structured domestic animal population is developed and applied to hypothetical epidemics on a pig farm. Rational decision making regarding appropriate control strategies for infectious diseases in domestic livestock requires an understanding of the disease dynamics and risk profiles for different groups of animals. This is best achieved by means of stochastic epidemic models. Methodologies are presented for 1) estimating the probability of an epidemic, given the presence of an infected animal, whether this epidemic is major (requires intervention) or minor (dies out without intervention), and how the location of the infected animal on the farm influences the epidemic probabilities; 2) estimating the basic reproductive ratio, R0 (i.e., the expected number of secondary cases on the introduction of a single infected animal) and the variability of the estimate of this parameter; and 3) estimating the total proportion of animals infected during an epidemic and the total proportion infected at any point in time. The model can be used for assessing impact of altering farm structure on disease dynamics, as well as disease control strategies, including altering farm structure, vaccination, culling, and genetic selection.

  19. Lower gastrointestinal malignancies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Minsky, Bruce D.

    1995-01-01

    Objective: This refresher course will review the current knowledge as well as ongoing and future research strategies in lower gastrointestinal malignancies. Radiation therapy has a significant role in the adjuvant treatment of lower gastrointestinal malignancies. Furthermore, there are data to suggest that radiation therapy is an integral component of the conservative management (organ preservation) of rectal and anal cancers. 1. Colon cancer. The standard adjuvant treatment for node positive or high risk transmural colon cancer is postoperative 5-FU and Levamisole. There are retrospective data to suggest that certain subsets of high risk patients may benefit from postoperative radiation therapy. 2. Rectal cancer. Randomized trials have revealed an advantage of postoperative radiation therapy plus chemotherapy in transmural and/or node positive rectal cancer. In the adjuvant setting the use of continuous infusion 5-FU may be more beneficial compared with bolus 5-FU. Despite the improvement in survival, postoperative therapies are associated with an approximately 35% incidence of grade 3+ toxicity. Recent data suggest that the use of preoperative combined modality therapy may be associated with less toxicity as well as increase the chance of sphincter preservation. New Intergroup trials addressing these issues will be presented. In patients with locally advanced unresectable rectal cancer, the addition of intraoperative radiation therapy may further improve local control. 3. Anal cancer. The use of combined 5-FU/Mitomycin-C and pelvic radiation therapy is effective in the treatment of anal carcinoma. The RTOG has recently completed a randomized trial addressing the question of the effectiveness and toxicity of Mitomycin-C. The replacement Intergroup Phase III trial will be presented

  20. Stromal gastrointestinal tumors (GIST)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balev, B.; Boykova, K.

    2015-01-01

    Full text: GIST are a heterogeneous group of mesenchymal tumors of the gastrointestinal tract with varying tumor grade and frequency of 1: 100 000 per year. Mazur and Clark introduced the term for the first time in 1983. GIST constitute approximately 2% of the tumors in the gastrointestinal tract. The average age is 60 years. The most common locations are the stomach (60%), small intestine (30%), esophagus (1%), and rectum (5%). Learning objective: to demonstrate the imaging characteristics of the disease according to the current ESMO guidelines and to present the diagnostic accuracy of different imaging modalitiesnbased on review of literature and on own observations. GIST originate from interstitial cells (of Cajal) in the GIT wall, belonging to the autonomic nervous system, which is responsible for motility. 90% of GIST show overexpression of the KIT receptor, also known as CD117 or stem cell factor receptor. those that do not express c-KIT mutations, activate mutations in PDGFRA gene. Tumor’s macromorphology determines the imaging features on different modalities. Most of these tumors are exophytic, subepithelial, reach large size and enhance inhomogeneous due to necrosis. They usually do not cause obstruction. Ultrasound as the initiation method shows low sensitivity and specificity in GIST detection, CT with intravenous contrast is the gold standard. MRI contributes with assessing the vascularisation, cellularity and pH. FDG-PET/CT registers the metabolism of intratumoral acidosis. CT is the method of choice in the early diagnosis and determination of resectability of GIST. MRI is an additional method. PET FDG-CT is useful for the monitoring of patients treated with Imatinib

  1. Lower gastrointestinal malignancies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Minsky, Bruce D.

    1996-01-01

    Objective: This refresher course will review the current knowledge as well as ongoing and future research strategies in lower gastrointestinal malignancies. Radiation therapy has a significant role in the adjuvant treatment of lower gastrointestinal malignancies. Furthermore, there are data to suggest that radiation therapy is an integral component of the conservative management (organ preservation) of rectal and anal cancers. 1. Colon cancer. The standard adjuvant treatment for node positive or high risk transmural colon cancer is postoperative 5-FU and Levamisole. There are retrospective data to suggest that certain subsets of high risk patients may benefit from postoperative radiation therapy. 2. Rectal cancer. Randomized trials have revealed an advantage of postoperative radiation therapy plus chemotherapy in transmural and/or node positive rectal cancer. In the adjuvant setting the use of continuous infusion 5-FU may be more beneficial compared with bolus 5-FU. Despite the improvement in survival, postoperative therapies are associated with an approximately 35% incidence of grade 3+ toxicity. Recent data suggest that the use of preoperative combined modality therapy may be associated with less toxicity as well as increase the chance of sphincter preservation. New Intergroup trials addressing these issues will be presented. In patients with locally advanced unresectable rectal cancer, the addition of intraoperative radiation therapy may further improve local control. 3. Anal cancer. The use of combined 5-FU/Mitomycin-C and pelvic radiation therapy is effective in the treatment of anal carcinoma. The RTOG has recently completed a randomized trial addressing the question of the effectiveness and toxicity of Mitomycin-C. The replacement Intergroup Phase III trial will be presented

  2. Climate extremes promote fatal co-infections during canine distemper epidemics in African lions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linda Munson

    Full Text Available Extreme climatic conditions may alter historic host-pathogen relationships and synchronize the temporal and spatial convergence of multiple infectious agents, triggering epidemics with far greater mortality than those due to single pathogens. Here we present the first data to clearly illustrate how climate extremes can promote a complex interplay between epidemic and endemic pathogens that are normally tolerated in isolation, but with co-infection, result in catastrophic mortality. A 1994 canine distemper virus (CDV epidemic in Serengeti lions (Panthera leo coincided with the death of a third of the population, and a second high-mortality CDV epidemic struck the nearby Ngorongoro Crater lion population in 2001. The extent of adult mortalities was unusual for CDV and prompted an investigation into contributing factors. Serological analyses indicated that at least five "silent" CDV epidemics swept through the same two lion populations between 1976 and 2006 without clinical signs or measurable mortality, indicating that CDV was not necessarily fatal. Clinical and pathology findings suggested that hemoparsitism was a major contributing factor during fatal epidemics. Using quantitative real-time PCR, we measured the magnitude of hemoparasite infections in these populations over 22 years and demonstrated significantly higher levels of Babesia during the 1994 and 2001 epidemics. Babesia levels correlated with mortalities and extent of CDV exposure within prides. The common event preceding the two high mortality CDV outbreaks was extreme drought conditions with wide-spread herbivore die-offs, most notably of Cape buffalo (Syncerus caffer. As a consequence of high tick numbers after the resumption of rains and heavy tick infestations of starving buffalo, the lions were infected by unusually high numbers of Babesia, infections that were magnified by the immunosuppressive effects of coincident CDV, leading to unprecedented mortality. Such mass mortality

  3. Climate extremes promote fatal co-infections during canine distemper epidemics in African lions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munson, Linda; Terio, Karen A; Kock, Richard; Mlengeya, Titus; Roelke, Melody E; Dubovi, Edward; Summers, Brian; Sinclair, Anthony R E; Packer, Craig

    2008-06-25

    Extreme climatic conditions may alter historic host-pathogen relationships and synchronize the temporal and spatial convergence of multiple infectious agents, triggering epidemics with far greater mortality than those due to single pathogens. Here we present the first data to clearly illustrate how climate extremes can promote a complex interplay between epidemic and endemic pathogens that are normally tolerated in isolation, but with co-infection, result in catastrophic mortality. A 1994 canine distemper virus (CDV) epidemic in Serengeti lions (Panthera leo) coincided with the death of a third of the population, and a second high-mortality CDV epidemic struck the nearby Ngorongoro Crater lion population in 2001. The extent of adult mortalities was unusual for CDV and prompted an investigation into contributing factors. Serological analyses indicated that at least five "silent" CDV epidemics swept through the same two lion populations between 1976 and 2006 without clinical signs or measurable mortality, indicating that CDV was not necessarily fatal. Clinical and pathology findings suggested that hemoparsitism was a major contributing factor during fatal epidemics. Using quantitative real-time PCR, we measured the magnitude of hemoparasite infections in these populations over 22 years and demonstrated significantly higher levels of Babesia during the 1994 and 2001 epidemics. Babesia levels correlated with mortalities and extent of CDV exposure within prides. The common event preceding the two high mortality CDV outbreaks was extreme drought conditions with wide-spread herbivore die-offs, most notably of Cape buffalo (Syncerus caffer). As a consequence of high tick numbers after the resumption of rains and heavy tick infestations of starving buffalo, the lions were infected by unusually high numbers of Babesia, infections that were magnified by the immunosuppressive effects of coincident CDV, leading to unprecedented mortality. Such mass mortality events may become

  4. Climate Extremes Promote Fatal Co-Infections during Canine Distemper Epidemics in African Lions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munson, Linda; Terio, Karen A.; Kock, Richard; Mlengeya, Titus; Roelke, Melody E.; Dubovi, Edward; Summers, Brian; Sinclair, Anthony R. E.; Packer, Craig

    2008-01-01

    Extreme climatic conditions may alter historic host-pathogen relationships and synchronize the temporal and spatial convergence of multiple infectious agents, triggering epidemics with far greater mortality than those due to single pathogens. Here we present the first data to clearly illustrate how climate extremes can promote a complex interplay between epidemic and endemic pathogens that are normally tolerated in isolation, but with co-infection, result in catastrophic mortality. A 1994 canine distemper virus (CDV) epidemic in Serengeti lions (Panthera leo) coincided with the death of a third of the population, and a second high-mortality CDV epidemic struck the nearby Ngorongoro Crater lion population in 2001. The extent of adult mortalities was unusual for CDV and prompted an investigation into contributing factors. Serological analyses indicated that at least five “silent” CDV epidemics swept through the same two lion populations between 1976 and 2006 without clinical signs or measurable mortality, indicating that CDV was not necessarily fatal. Clinical and pathology findings suggested that hemoparsitism was a major contributing factor during fatal epidemics. Using quantitative real-time PCR, we measured the magnitude of hemoparasite infections in these populations over 22 years and demonstrated significantly higher levels of Babesia during the 1994 and 2001 epidemics. Babesia levels correlated with mortalities and extent of CDV exposure within prides. The common event preceding the two high mortality CDV outbreaks was extreme drought conditions with wide-spread herbivore die-offs, most notably of Cape buffalo (Syncerus caffer). As a consequence of high tick numbers after the resumption of rains and heavy tick infestations of starving buffalo, the lions were infected by unusually high numbers of Babesia, infections that were magnified by the immunosuppressive effects of coincident CDV, leading to unprecedented mortality. Such mass mortality events may

  5. Characteristic properties of carrying out anti-epidemic arrangements during liquidation of radiation accident after-effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaposhnikov, A.A.; Konyshev, I.S.

    1995-01-01

    During liquidation of the after-effects of technogenic accidents it is necessary to maintain satisfactory sanitary and epidemiological conditions in the emergency zone and in the regions of temporary accommodation of the evacuated population, to secure epidemic safety of drinking water, edible raw materials and prepared foods, communal and other establishments. The volume and trend of anti-epidemic measures are planned depending on the type of epidemic situation. In the course of sanitary-epidemiological survey should be ascertained the prevalence of diseases among the population, epizootic among domestic animals and synanthropous rodents, the existence of natural foci of infectious diseases and their activity, the conditions of epidemically important establishments in the emergency zone, sanitary conditions of places of residence of population, the presence of transmitters of infectious diseases, the system of organization of anti-epidemic control of population and rescuers. The rehabilitation of immunological reactivity of human body up to adequate response to the antigen irritation is observed within various periods of time after recovery from radial disease (1-3 months). 17 refs.; 2 tabs

  6. Contact allergy epidemics and their controls

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thyssen, Jacob Pontoppidan; Johansen, Jeanne Duus; Menné, Torkil

    2007-01-01

    Contact dermatitis can be severe and lead to sick leave as well as significant healthcare expenses. The aim of this review is to present the published knowledge on 6 historical epidemics of contact allergy to apply this knowledge on the prevention and control of future contact allergy epidemics. ...... to prevent contact allergy epidemics. It is essential that dermatologist, scientists, administrators, and consumers organize and structure known methods to accelerate the control of emerging contact allergens....

  7. Can rewiring strategy control the epidemic spreading?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Chao; Yin, Qiuju; Liu, Wenyang; Yan, Zhijun; Shi, Tianyu

    2015-11-01

    Relation existed in the social contact network can affect individuals' behaviors greatly. Considering the diversity of relation intimacy among network nodes, an epidemic propagation model is proposed by incorporating the link-breaking threshold, which is normally neglected in the rewiring strategy. The impact of rewiring strategy on the epidemic spreading in the weighted adaptive network is explored. The results show that the rewiring strategy cannot always control the epidemic prevalence, especially when the link-breaking threshold is low. Meanwhile, as well as strong links, weak links also play a significant role on epidemic spreading.

  8. Peracute Infectious Canine Hepatitis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. H. Cheema*, I. Ahmed, G. Mustafa and A. Aslam

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Peracute infectious canine hepatitis (ICH was diagnosed in two young male dogs out of 56 dead canines presented for necropsy examination during the period of April 2009 to June 2010. These dogs were purebred, one- month old Alsatian and 5-month old Labrador. None of the dogs had received any vaccination or deworming treatment; both had died after illness lasting for six hours and twenty four hours respectively. The dogs had shown signs of depression, anorexia and fever. At necropsy, lymph nodes were swollen, edematous and congested; livers were enlarged, bright red and mottled with numerous small white foci. Petechial hemorrhages were seen in the mucosa. Excessive serosanguinous fluid was present in the abdominal cavities. Histologically, the most significant lesion was necrohemorrhagic hepatitis with single cell necrosis of hepatocytes, lacunose dilation of sinusoids filled with blood and numerous large, solid intranuclear inclusion bodies (IIBs in the hepatocytes and macrophages. Both eosinophilic and basophilic (amphophilic inclusions were seen. It has been observed that ICH is re-emerging in some endemic countries. Pet dogs should be regularly protected by effective vaccination.

  9. Homo-psychologicus: Reactionary behavioural aspects of epidemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alhaji Cherif

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available We formulate an in silico model of pathogen avoidance mechanism and investigate its impact on defensive behavioural measures (e.g., spontaneous social exclusions and distancing, crowd avoidance and voluntary vaccination adaptation. In particular, we use SIR(BS (e.g., susceptible-infected-recovered with additional behavioural component model to investigate the impact of homo-psychologicus aspects of epidemics. We focus on reactionary behavioural changes, which apply to both social distancing and voluntary vaccination participations. Our analyses reveal complex relationships between spontaneous and uncoordinated behavioural changes, the emergence of its contagion properties, and mitigation of infectious diseases. We find that the presence of effective behavioural changes can impede the persistence of disease. Furthermore, it was found that under perfect effective behavioural change, there are three regions in the response factor (e.g., imitation and/or reactionary and behavioural scale factor (e.g., global/local factors ρ–α behavioural space. Mainly, (1 disease is always endemic even in the presence of behavioural change, (2 behavioural-prevalence plasticity is observed and disease can sometimes be eradication, and (3 elimination of endemic disease under permanence of permanent behavioural change is achieved. These results suggest that preventive behavioural changes (e.g., non-pharmaceutical prophylactic measures, social distancing and exclusion, crowd avoidance are influenced by individual differences in perception of risks and are a salient feature of epidemics. Additionally, these findings indicates that care needs to be taken when considering the effect of adaptive behavioural change in predicting the course of epidemics, and as well as the interpretation and development of the public health measures that account for spontaneous behavioural changes.

  10. Homo-psychologicus: Reactionary behavioural aspects of epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherif, Alhaji; Barley, Kamal; Hurtado, Marcel

    2016-03-01

    We formulate an in silico model of pathogen avoidance mechanism and investigate its impact on defensive behavioural measures (e.g., spontaneous social exclusions and distancing, crowd avoidance and voluntary vaccination adaptation). In particular, we use SIR(B)S (e.g., susceptible-infected-recovered with additional behavioural component) model to investigate the impact of homo-psychologicus aspects of epidemics. We focus on reactionary behavioural changes, which apply to both social distancing and voluntary vaccination participations. Our analyses reveal complex relationships between spontaneous and uncoordinated behavioural changes, the emergence of its contagion properties, and mitigation of infectious diseases. We find that the presence of effective behavioural changes can impede the persistence of disease. Furthermore, it was found that under perfect effective behavioural change, there are three regions in the response factor (e.g., imitation and/or reactionary) and behavioural scale factor (e.g., global/local) factors ρ-α behavioural space. Mainly, (1) disease is always endemic even in the presence of behavioural change, (2) behavioural-prevalence plasticity is observed and disease can sometimes be eradication, and (3) elimination of endemic disease under permanence of permanent behavioural change is achieved. These results suggest that preventive behavioural changes (e.g., non-pharmaceutical prophylactic measures, social distancing and exclusion, crowd avoidance) are influenced by individual differences in perception of risks and are a salient feature of epidemics. Additionally, these findings indicates that care needs to be taken when considering the effect of adaptive behavioural change in predicting the course of epidemics, and as well as the interpretation and development of the public health measures that account for spontaneous behavioural changes. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. What Is a Pediatric Infectious Diseases Specialist?

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Text Size Email Print Share What is a Pediatric Infectious Diseases Specialist? Page Content Article Body If ... the teen years. What Kind of Training Do Pediatric Infectious Diseases Specialists Have? Pediatric infectious diseases specialists ...

  12. NON-INFECTIOUS DISORDERS OF WARMWATER FISHES

    Science.gov (United States)

    Compared with infectious diseases and disorders, few non-infectious diseases and disorders in cultured fish have severe biologic or economic impact. Culture practices, however, often establish environments that promote infectious disease by weakening the immune response or by pro...

  13. How to select a proper early warning threshold to detect infectious disease outbreaks based on the China infectious disease automated alert and response system (CIDARS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ruiping; Jiang, Yonggen; Michael, Engelgau; Zhao, Genming

    2017-06-12

    China Centre for Diseases Control and Prevention (CDC) developed the China Infectious Disease Automated Alert and Response System (CIDARS) in 2005. The CIDARS was used to strengthen infectious disease surveillance and aid in the early warning of outbreak. The CIDARS has been integrated into the routine outbreak monitoring efforts of the CDC at all levels in China. Early warning threshold is crucial for outbreak detection in the CIDARS, but CDCs at all level are currently using thresholds recommended by the China CDC, and these recommended thresholds have recognized limitations. Our study therefore seeks to explore an operational method to select the proper early warning threshold according to the epidemic features of local infectious diseases. The data used in this study were extracted from the web-based Nationwide Notifiable Infectious Diseases Reporting Information System (NIDRIS), and data for infectious disease cases were organized by calendar week (1-52) and year (2009-2015) in Excel format; Px was calculated using a percentile-based moving window (moving window [5 week*5 year], x), where x represents one of 12 centiles (0.40, 0.45, 0.50….0.95). Outbreak signals for the 12 Px were calculated using the moving percentile method (MPM) based on data from the CIDARS. When the outbreak signals generated by the 'mean + 2SD' gold standard were in line with a Px generated outbreak signal for each week during the year of 2014, this Px was then defined as the proper threshold for the infectious disease. Finally, the performance of new selected thresholds for each infectious disease was evaluated by simulated outbreak signals based on 2015 data. Six infectious diseases were selected in this study (chickenpox, mumps, hand foot and mouth diseases (HFMD), scarlet fever, influenza and rubella). Proper thresholds for chickenpox (P75), mumps (P80), influenza (P75), rubella (P45), HFMD (P75), and scarlet fever (P80) were identified. The selected proper thresholds for these

  14. Effect of non-stationary climate on infectious gastroenteritis transmission in Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onozuka, Daisuke

    2014-06-01

    Local weather factors are widely considered to influence the transmission of infectious gastroenteritis. Few studies, however, have examined the non-stationary relationships between global climatic factors and transmission of infectious gastroenteritis. We analyzed monthly data for cases of infectious gastroenteritis in Fukuoka, Japan from 2000 to 2012 using cross-wavelet coherency analysis to assess the pattern of associations between indices for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Infectious gastroenteritis cases were non-stationary and significantly associated with the IOD and ENSO (Multivariate ENSO Index [MEI], Niño 1 + 2, Niño 3, Niño 4, and Niño 3.4) for a period of approximately 1 to 2 years. This association was non-stationary and appeared to have a major influence on the synchrony of infectious gastroenteritis transmission. Our results suggest that non-stationary patterns of association between global climate factors and incidence of infectious gastroenteritis should be considered when developing early warning systems for epidemics of infectious gastroenteritis.

  15. Population Explosions of Tiger Moth Lead to Lepidopterism Mimicking Infectious Fever Outbreaks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pallara Janardhanan Wills

    Full Text Available Lepidopterism is a disease caused by the urticating scales and toxic fluids of adult moths, butterflies or its caterpillars. The resulting cutaneous eruptions and systemic problems progress to clinical complications sometimes leading to death. High incidence of fever epidemics were associated with massive outbreaks of tiger moth Asota caricae adult populations during monsoon in Kerala, India. A significant number of monsoon related fever characteristic to lepidopterism was erroneously treated as infectious fevers due to lookalike symptoms. To diagnose tiger moth lepidopterism, we conducted immunoblots for tiger moth specific IgE in fever patients' sera. We selected a cohort of patients (n = 155 with hallmark symptoms of infectious fevers but were tested negative to infectious fevers. In these cases, the total IgE was elevated and was detected positive (78.6% for tiger moth specific IgE allergens. Chemical characterization of caterpillar and adult moth fluids was performed by HPLC and GC-MS analysis and structural identification of moth scales was performed by SEM analysis. The body fluids and chitinous scales were found to be highly toxic and inflammatory in nature. To replicate the disease in experimental model, wistar rats were exposed to live tiger moths in a dose dependant manner and observed similar clinico-pathological complications reported during the fever epidemics. Further, to link larval abundance and fever epidemics we conducted cointegration test for the period 2009 to 2012 and physical presence of the tiger moths were found to be cointegrated with fever epidemics. In conclusion, our experiments demonstrate that inhalation of aerosols containing tiger moth fluids, scales and hairs cause systemic reactions that can be fatal to human. All these evidences points to the possible involvement of tiger moth disease as a major cause to the massive and fatal fever epidemics observed in Kerala.

  16. The Diabetes Epidemic in Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junghyun Noh

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Diabetes is one of the foremost public health issues worldwide that can lead to complications in many organ systems, and has become a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in Korea. According to data from the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS, about 2.7 million Koreans (8.0% aged 30 years or older had type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM in 2013. The prevalence of T2DM increased with age and rose from 5.6% in 2006 to 8.0% in 2013. Using data based on The Health Screening Service of the NHIS, 25% of Korean adults were reported to have prediabetes in 2013. The prevalence of an impaired fasting glucose tended to increase over time from 21.5% in 2006 to 25.0% in 2013. Even though nationwide health screening has been regularly conducted as a public service, the proportion of undiagnosed cases of diabetes was still reported to be on the higher side in the latest study. Based on the results of these epidemic studies, further actions will be needed to effectively implement lifestyle changes on a social level and increase measures for the early detection of diabetes to stem the tide of the epidemic.

  17. Infectious diseases in competitive sports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodman, R A; Thacker, S B; Solomon, S L; Osterholm, M T; Hughes, J M

    1994-03-16

    Participation in competitive sports is popular and widely encouraged throughout the United States. Reports of infectious disease outbreaks among competitive athletes and recent publicity regarding infectious disease concerns in sports underscore the need to better characterize the occurrence of these problems. To identify reports of infectious diseases in sports, we performed a comprehensive search of the medical literature (MEDLINE) and newspaper databases in two on-line services (NEXIS and DIALOG PAPERS). Articles selected from the literature review included those describing cases or outbreaks of disease in which exposure to an infectious agent was likely to have occurred during training for competitive sports or during actual competition. Articles from the newspaper review included reports of outbreaks, exposures, or preventive measures that directly or indirectly involved teams or spectators. The literature review identified 38 reports of infectious disease outbreaks or other instances of transmission through person-to-person (24 reports), common-source (nine reports), or airborne (five reports) routes; the newspaper search identified 28 reports. Infectious agents included predominantly viruses but also a variety of fungi and gram-positive and gram-negative bacteria. Our findings indicate that strategies to prevent transmission of infectious diseases in sports must recognize risks at three levels: the individual athlete, the team, and spectators or others who may become exposed to infectious diseases as a result of sports-related activities. Team physicians and others who are responsible for the health of athletes should be especially familiar with the features of infectious diseases that occur in sports and measures for the prevention of these problems.

  18. A generalized-growth model to characterize the early ascending phase of infectious disease outbreaks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cécile Viboud

    2016-06-01

    Conclusions: Our findings reveal significant variation in epidemic growth patterns across different infectious disease outbreaks and highlights that sub-exponential growth is a common phenomenon, especially for pathogens that are not airborne. Sub-exponential growth profiles may result from heterogeneity in contact structures or risk groups, reactive behavior changes, or the early onset of interventions strategies, and consideration of “deceleration parameters” may be useful to refine existing mathematical transmission models and improve disease forecasts.

  19. Infectious Diseases in the Homeless

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2008-08-26

    In this podcast, Ted Pestorius speaks with Dr. Marian McDonald, Associate Director for Minority and Women’s Health at CDC about an article in September 2008 issue of Emerging Infectious Diseases on infectious diseases in the homeless. There are an estimated 100 million homeless people worldwide today, and this number is likely to grow. The homeless population is vulnerable to many diseases, including HIV, hepatitis, and tuberculosis. Dr. McDonald discusses why this population is so vulnerable.  Created: 8/26/2008 by Emerging Infectious Diseases.   Date Released: 8/27/2008.

  20. The Risk of Chronic Gastrointestinal Disorders Following Acute Infection with Intestinal Parasites

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason Blitz

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Infectious gastroenteritis (IGE is caused by numerous bacterial, viral, and parasitic pathogens. A history of IGE has been shown in previous studies to increase the risk of developing chronic gastrointestinal disorders and other chronic conditions. As bacteria and viruses represent the majority of pathogen-specific causes of IGE, post-infectious studies have primarily focused on these organisms. The objective of this study was to investigate an association between a history of parasite-associated IGE and the subsequent development of chronic post-infectious gastrointestinal and non-gastrointestinal disorders in a military population.Methods: International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM diagnostic coding data for primary exposures and outcomes were obtained for a retrospective cohort study of active component military personnel from 1998 to 2013. Exposed subjects consisted of individuals with documented infection with one of ten parasitic pathogens. Unexposed subjects were matched to exposed subjects on demographic and operational deployment history parameters. Adjusted odds ratios (aORs were estimated using logistic regression for several chronic disorders previously shown to be associated with a history of IGE.Results: A total of 896 subjects with a parasitic exposure were matched to 3681 unexposed subjects for multivariate regression analysis. Individuals infected with Balantidium coli, Ascaris lumbricoides, Strongyloides stercoralis, Necator americanus/Ancylostoma duodenale, and Taenia spp. had higher aOR for development of several chronic gastrointestinal disorders when compared with unexposed subjects after controlling for various covariates.Conclusion: We found that parasite-associated enteric infection increases the risk of development of post-infectious chronic gastrointestinal disorders in a military population. These results require confirmation in similar populations and in the

  1. Clinical manifestations of gastrointestinal form of food allergy in children and approaches to its diagnosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu.R. Chernysh

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Gastrointestinal food allergy is caused by the development of allergic inflammation in the mucosa of the gastrointestinal tract. The mechanisms of this inflammation are immunogflobulin E (IgE-mediated (oral allergic syndrome, immediate gastrointestinal hypersensitivity, non-IgE-mediated (protein-induced enterocolitis syndrome, protein-induced enteropathy, protein-induced allergic proctocolitis and mixed IgE- and non-IgE-mediated reactions (eosinophilic esophagitis, eosinophilic gastritis and eosinophilic gastroenteritis. Gastrointestinal manifestations of food allergy are also combined with symptoms of atopic diseases, more often with atopic dermatitis, urticaria and angioedema. Clinical manifestations of allergic lesions of the gastrointestinal tract are different and non-specific. Common signs of gastrointestinal allergy include: vomiting (occurs from a few minutes to 4–6 hours after eating; сolic (immediately or several hours after eating; constipation; diarrhea; refusal of food (from a specific product or complete refusal to eat; abdominal pain; flatulence, the presence of mucus and eosinophils in the stool; poor appetite; headache. Differential diagnosis of gastrointestinal food allergy should be carried out with diseases such as disease and abnormalities in the development of the digestive system, mental and metabolic disorders, intoxications, infectious diseases, pancreatic endocrine gland failure, celiac disease, cystic fibrosis, immunodeficiencies, disaccharidic insufficiency, side effects of medications, endocrine pathology, irritable bowel syndrome. Methods for diagnosing gastrointestinal allergy, which currently exist, are limited and imperfect. This requires further scientific researches aimed at timely detection of this pathology, prevention in genetically predisposed children, development of optimal diagnostic algorithms, prevention of the progression of clinical manifestations, the choice of individual diet therapy and

  2. Gastrointestinal nuclear medicine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koblik, P.D.; Hornof, W.J.

    1985-01-01

    General localization of gastrointestinal bleeding through the use of labeled red blood cells may be performed in children, or (99m)Tc-pertechnetate may be used if a Meckel's diverticulum is suspected. As in adults, cholecystitis and biliary leak may be assessed in children via (99m)Tc-IDA derivatives. Gastroesophageal reflux can be evaluated by oral consumption of the child's usual diet labeled with (99m)Tc sulfur colloid. For the scintigraphic determination of pulmonary aspiration, a relatively high concentration of tracer within a drop of liquid is placed beneath the child's tongue followed by dynamic imaging of the respiratory tract. Colonic transit scintigraphy can aid in the identification and therapeutic decision-making in patients with functional fecal retention, the most common cause of chronic constipation in children. (18)F-DOPA positron emission tomography is useful for classifying pancreatic involvement in infantile hyperinsulinism as focal or diffuse, thereby differentiating between patients who should receive curative focal pancreatic resection versus those who should receive medical management. Assessment of protein-losing enteropathy can be conducted scintigraphically and, compared with fecal alpha-1 antitrypsin collection, the scintigraphic method can detect esophageal and gastric protein loss. Also, scintigraphic quantification of protein loss can be performed without the requirement for fecal collection. Intestinal inflammation in children with inflammatory bowel disease can be evaluated using (99m)Tc white blood cells. The scintigraphic method is safe, accurate, well-tolerated by children and complementary to endoscopy in most patients

  3. Gastrointestinal scanning agent

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Francis, M.D.

    1980-01-01

    An easily prepared radiolabeled gastrointestinal scanning agent is described. Technetium-99m has ideal characteristics for imaging the upper and lower GI tract and determining stomach emptying and intestinal transit time when used with an insoluble particulate material. For example, crystalline and amorphous calcium phosphate particles can be effectively labeled in a one-step process using sup(99m)TcO 4 and SnCl 2 . These labeled particles have insignificant mass and when administered orally pass through the GI tract unchanged, without affecting the handling and density of the intestinal contents. Visualization of the esophageal entry into the stomach, the greater and lesser curvatures of the stomach, ejection into the duodenum, and rates of passage through the upper and lower GI tract are obtained. The slurry of sup(99m)TC particulate can be given rectally by enema. Good images of the cecum and the ascending, transverse, and descending colon are obtained. Mucosal folds and the splenic and hepatic flexures are visualized. The resilience of the large intestine is also readily visualized by pneumocolonographic techniques. (author)

  4. Multiple Sclerosis After Infectious Mononucleosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Trine Rasmussen; Rostgaard, Klaus; Nielsen, Nete Munk

    2007-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Infectious mononucleosis caused by the Epstein-Barr virus has been associated with increased risk of multiple sclerosis. However, little is known about the characteristics of this association. OBJECTIVE: To assess the significance of sex, age at and time since infectious mononucleosis......, and attained age to the risk of developing multiple sclerosis after infectious mononucleosis. DESIGN: Cohort study using persons tested serologically for infectious mononucleosis at Statens Serum Institut, the Danish Civil Registration System, the Danish National Hospital Discharge Register, and the Danish...... Multiple Sclerosis Registry. SETTING: Statens Serum Institut. PATIENTS: A cohort of 25 234 Danish patients with mononucleosis was followed up for the occurrence of multiple sclerosis beginning on April 1, 1968, or January 1 of the year after the diagnosis of mononucleosis or after a negative Paul...

  5. Epidemic Network Failures in Optical Transport Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Katsikas, Dimitrios; Fagertun, Anna Manolova

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a failure propagation model for transport networks which are affected by epidemic failures. The network is controlled using the GMPLS protocol suite. The Susceptible Infected Disabled (SID) epidemic model is investigated and new signaling functionality of GMPLS to support...

  6. Malaria epidemic and drug resistance, Djibouti.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogier, Christophe; Pradines, Bruno; Bogreau, H; Koeck, Jean-Louis; Kamil, Mohamed-Ali; Mercereau-Puijalon, Odile

    2005-02-01

    Analysis of Plasmodium falciparum isolates collected before, during, and after a 1999 malaria epidemic in Djibouti shows that, despite a high prevalence of resistance to chloroquine, the epidemic cannot be attributed to a sudden increase in drug resistance of local parasite populations.

  7. Epidemics in interconnected small-world networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, M.; Li, D.; Qin, P.; Liu, C.; Wang, H.; Wang, F.

    2015-01-01

    Networks can be used to describe the interconnections among individuals, which play an important role in the spread of disease. Although the small-world effect has been found to have a significant impact on epidemics in single networks, the small-world effect on epidemics in interconnected networks

  8. Stemming the obesity epidemic : a tantalizing prospect

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veerman, J Lennert; Barendregt, Jan J; van Beeck, Ed F; Seidell, Jacob C; Mackenbach, Johan P

    OBJECTIVE: Obesity is a growing problem worldwide, but there are no good methods to assess the future course of the epidemic and the potential influence of interventions. We explore the behavior change needed to stop the obesity epidemic in the U.S. RESEARCH METHODS AND PROCEDURES: We modeled the

  9. Scintigraphic evaluation of gastrointestinal bleeding

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Yong Tai; Lee, Choon Keun; Lee, Sun Wha; Choi, Woo Suk; Yoon, Yup; Lim, Jae Hoon

    1988-01-01

    Gastrointestinal bleeding remains a major diagnostic problem. Although advances have been made in the medical and surgical methods of managing gastrointestinal bleeding, the commonly employed techniques of barium radiography, endoscopy, and angiography may not successfully localize the site and define the cause of gastrointestinal bleeding. Two widely available technetium-99m-labeled radiopharmaceuticals, sulfur colloid and red blood cells are currently used in the evaluation of patients who are bleeding from the gastrointestinal tract. Surgically confirmed 19 patients with use of 99m Tc-sulfur colloid (7 cases) and 99m Tc-RBC (12 cases) were retrospectively evaluated. The overall sensitivity of scintigraphy in detection of bleeding and localization of bleeding site was 68% and 84%, respectively. The authors conclude that bleeding scintigraphy is a safe, sensitive, and non-invasive method as an effective screening test before performing angiography or surgery.

  10. Sleep Dysfunction and Gastrointestinal Diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khanijow, Vikesh; Prakash, Pia; Emsellem, Helene A; Borum, Marie L; Doman, David B

    2015-12-01

    Sleep deprivation and impaired sleep quality have been associated with poor health outcomes. Many patients experience sleep disturbances, which can increase the risk of medical conditions such as hypertension, obesity, stroke, and heart disease as well as increase overall mortality. Recent studies have suggested that there is a strong association between sleep disturbances and gastrointestinal diseases. Proinflammatory cytokines, such as tumor necrosis factor, interleukin-1, and interleukin-6, have been associated with sleep dysfunction. Alterations in these cytokines have been seen in certain gastrointestinal diseases, such as gastroesophageal reflux disease, inflammatory bowel disease, liver disorders, and colorectal cancer. It is important for gastroenterologists to be aware of the relationship between sleep disorders and gastrointestinal illnesses to ensure good care for patients. This article reviews the current research on the interplay between sleep disorders, immune function, and gastrointestinal diseases.

  11. Radiological Atlas of Gastrointestinal Disease

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nolan, D.J.

    1983-01-01

    This book is a reference to gastrointestinal disease and radiographic methods. It provides complete information for diagnosis and management and includes coverage of plain radiography, barium studies, water-soluble contrast studies, and more

  12. GASTROINTESTINAL INJURIES FROM BLUNT ABDOMINAL ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    hi-tech

    2004-04-04

    Apr 4, 2004 ... Subjects: Twenty one children managed for gastrointestinal injuries from blunt trauma ... ileus, urinary tract infection and chest infection, respectively postoperatively. .... predictive value with CT scan, (9) the positive predictive.

  13. CT of acute gastrointestinal disease

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wittenberg, J.

    1991-01-01

    The application of computerized tomography in gastrointestinal tract diseases are presented, including advantages in surgical belly that are: anatomic clarity, wide survey and rapid performance. (C.G.C.)

  14. Inferring epidemic contact structure from phylogenetic trees.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel E Leventhal

    Full Text Available Contact structure is believed to have a large impact on epidemic spreading and consequently using networks to model such contact structure continues to gain interest in epidemiology. However, detailed knowledge of the exact contact structure underlying real epidemics is limited. Here we address the question whether the structure of the contact network leaves a detectable genetic fingerprint in the pathogen population. To this end we compare phylogenies generated by disease outbreaks in simulated populations with different types of contact networks. We find that the shape of these phylogenies strongly depends on contact structure. In particular, measures of tree imbalance allow us to quantify to what extent the contact structure underlying an epidemic deviates from a null model contact network and illustrate this in the case of random mixing. Using a phylogeny from the Swiss HIV epidemic, we show that this epidemic has a significantly more unbalanced tree than would be expected from random mixing.

  15. Epidemics in interconnected small-world networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Meng; Li, Daqing; Qin, Pengju; Liu, Chaoran; Wang, Huijuan; Wang, Feilong

    2015-01-01

    Networks can be used to describe the interconnections among individuals, which play an important role in the spread of disease. Although the small-world effect has been found to have a significant impact on epidemics in single networks, the small-world effect on epidemics in interconnected networks has rarely been considered. Here, we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model of epidemic spreading in a system comprising two interconnected small-world networks. We find that the epidemic threshold in such networks decreases when the rewiring probability of the component small-world networks increases. When the infection rate is low, the rewiring probability affects the global steady-state infection density, whereas when the infection rate is high, the infection density is insensitive to the rewiring probability. Moreover, epidemics in interconnected small-world networks are found to spread at different velocities that depend on the rewiring probability.

  16. Epidemics in interconnected small-world networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meng Liu

    Full Text Available Networks can be used to describe the interconnections among individuals, which play an important role in the spread of disease. Although the small-world effect has been found to have a significant impact on epidemics in single networks, the small-world effect on epidemics in interconnected networks has rarely been considered. Here, we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS model of epidemic spreading in a system comprising two interconnected small-world networks. We find that the epidemic threshold in such networks decreases when the rewiring probability of the component small-world networks increases. When the infection rate is low, the rewiring probability affects the global steady-state infection density, whereas when the infection rate is high, the infection density is insensitive to the rewiring probability. Moreover, epidemics in interconnected small-world networks are found to spread at different velocities that depend on the rewiring probability.

  17. The First Epidemic and New-emerging Human Fascioliasis in Kermanshah (Western Iran and a Ten-year Follow Up, 1998-2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hossein Hatami

    2012-01-01

    Conclusions: It was the first case of human fascioliasis in west Iran and was a real epidemic and an emerging infectious disease for this area at that time. The clinical symptoms were less severe compared with other reports. Health education to inhabitants and health care workers can lead to rapid detection of such outbreaks.

  18. Drug therapy for gastrointestinal and liver diseases

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ballinger, Anne; Farthing, M. J. G. (Michael J. G.)

    2001-01-01

    ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 Gastrointestinal bleeding Matthew R Banks, Peter D Fairclough . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 Inflammatory bowel...

  19. Antioxidant supplements for preventing gastrointestinal cancers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjelakovic, G; Nikolova, D; Simonetti, R G

    2004-01-01

    Oxidative stress may cause gastrointestinal cancers. The evidence on whether antioxidant supplements are effective in preventing gastrointestinal cancers is contradictory.......Oxidative stress may cause gastrointestinal cancers. The evidence on whether antioxidant supplements are effective in preventing gastrointestinal cancers is contradictory....

  20. Epidemic Survivability: Characterizing Networks Under Epidemic-like Failure Propagation Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manzano, Marc; Calle, Eusebi; Ripoll, Jordi

    2013-01-01

    Epidemics theory has been used in different contexts in order to describe the propagation of diseases, human interactions or natural phenomena. In computer science, virus spreading has been also characterized using epidemic models. Although in the past the use of epidemic models...... in telecommunication networks has not been extensively considered, nowadays, with the increasing computation capacity and complexity of operating systems of modern network devices (routers, switches, etc.), the study of possible epidemic-like failure scenarios must be taken into account. When epidemics occur......, such as in other multiple failure scenarios, identifying the level of vulnerability offered by a network is one of the main challenges. In this paper, we present epidemic survivability, a new network measure that describes the vulnerability of each node of a network under a specific epidemic intensity. Moreover...

  1. Foreign bodies in gastrointestinal tract

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayşe Kefeli

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective: Ingested foreign bodies in gastrointestinal tract are a common event which can cause serious morbidity and mortality in the children and adult population. For this reason, early diagnosis and treatment are crucial for preventing these life threatening complications. In this study, we aimed to analyze the characteristics of the patients with upper gastrointestinal foreign bodies that were treated in our department. Methods: Patients diagnosed with upper gastrointestinal foreign bodies who were admitted to our hospital between February 2010 and August2013 were evaluated retrospectively. The data regarding their age, gender, clinical profile, type and localization of the esophageal foreign body, performed endoscopic procedure and initial symptoms of the patients were noted and analyzed statistically. Results: Thirty-eight patients with a diagnosis of gastrointestinal foreign body were included in this study. Of these patients, 21 were male and 17 were female. The youngest patient was 17 years old and the oldest patient was 79 years old. Most of the foreign bodies (%55.3 detected in the stomach. Food waste and metallic objects in 21 and 16 patients respectively. The most common complaint was dysphagia (%50. After endoscopic intervention three of the patients were directed to surgery. Conclusion: Early recognition and treatment of gastrointestinal foreign bodies is important as their complications are life threatening. The best method of removal of foreign bodies is controversial. Early management with upper gastrointestinal endoscopy is the most efficient and safe treatment method in current conditions.

  2. Parallel Epidemics of Community-Associated Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus USA300 Infection in North and South America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Planet, Paul J; Diaz, Lorena; Kolokotronis, Sergios-Orestis; Narechania, Apurva; Reyes, Jinnethe; Xing, Galen; Rincon, Sandra; Smith, Hannah; Panesso, Diana; Ryan, Chanelle; Smith, Dylan P; Guzman, Manuel; Zurita, Jeannete; Sebra, Robert; Deikus, Gintaras; Nolan, Rathel L; Tenover, Fred C; Weinstock, George M; Robinson, D Ashley; Arias, Cesar A

    2015-12-15

    The community-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (CA-MRSA) epidemic in the United States is attributed to the spread of the USA300 clone. An epidemic of CA-MRSA closely related to USA300 has occurred in northern South America (USA300 Latin-American variant, USA300-LV). Using phylogenomic analysis, we aimed to understand the relationships between these 2 epidemics. We sequenced the genomes of 51 MRSA clinical isolates collected between 1999 and 2012 from the United States, Colombia, Venezuela, and Ecuador. Phylogenetic analysis was used to infer the relationships and times since the divergence of the major clades. Phylogenetic analyses revealed 2 dominant clades that segregated by geographical region, had a putative common ancestor in 1975, and originated in 1989, in North America, and in 1985, in South America. Emergence of these parallel epidemics coincides with the independent acquisition of the arginine catabolic mobile element (ACME) in North American isolates and a novel copper and mercury resistance (COMER) mobile element in South American isolates. Our results reveal the existence of 2 parallel USA300 epidemics that shared a recent common ancestor. The simultaneous rapid dissemination of these 2 epidemic clades suggests the presence of shared, potentially convergent adaptations that enhance fitness and ability to spread. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  3. Deriving a model for influenza epidemics from historical data.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ray, Jaideep; Lefantzi, Sophia

    2011-09-01

    In this report we describe how we create a model for influenza epidemics from historical data collected from both civilian and military societies. We derive the model when the population of the society is unknown but the size of the epidemic is known. Our interest lies in estimating a time-dependent infection rate to within a multiplicative constant. The model form fitted is chosen for its similarity to published models for HIV and plague, enabling application of Bayesian techniques to discriminate among infectious agents during an emerging epidemic. We have developed models for the progression of influenza in human populations. The model is framed as a integral, and predicts the number of people who exhibit symptoms and seek care over a given time-period. The start and end of the time period form the limits of integration. The disease progression model, in turn, contains parameterized models for the incubation period and a time-dependent infection rate. The incubation period model is obtained from literature, and the parameters of the infection rate are fitted from historical data including both military and civilian populations. The calibrated infection rate models display a marked difference in which the 1918 Spanish Influenza pandemic differed from the influenza seasons in the US between 2001-2008 and the progression of H1N1 in Catalunya, Spain. The data for the 1918 pandemic was obtained from military populations, while the rest are country-wide or province-wide data from the twenty-first century. We see that the initial growth of infection in all cases were about the same; however, military populations were able to control the epidemic much faster i.e., the decay of the infection-rate curve is much higher. It is not clear whether this was because of the much higher level of organization present in a military society or the seriousness with which the 1918 pandemic was addressed. Each outbreak to which the influenza model was fitted yields a separate set of

  4. Heterogeneous network epidemics: real-time growth, variance and extinction of infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ball, Frank; House, Thomas

    2017-09-01

    Recent years have seen a large amount of interest in epidemics on networks as a way of representing the complex structure of contacts capable of spreading infections through the modern human population. The configuration model is a popular choice in theoretical studies since it combines the ability to specify the distribution of the number of contacts (degree) with analytical tractability. Here we consider the early real-time behaviour of the Markovian SIR epidemic model on a configuration model network using a multitype branching process. We find closed-form analytic expressions for the mean and variance of the number of infectious individuals as a function of time and the degree of the initially infected individual(s), and write down a system of differential equations for the probability of extinction by time t that are numerically fast compared to Monte Carlo simulation. We show that these quantities are all sensitive to the degree distribution-in particular we confirm that the mean prevalence of infection depends on the first two moments of the degree distribution and the variance in prevalence depends on the first three moments of the degree distribution. In contrast to most existing analytic approaches, the accuracy of these results does not depend on having a large number of infectious individuals, meaning that in the large population limit they would be asymptotically exact even for one initial infectious individual.

  5. [Common pediatric infectious diseases following natural disasters].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Kai-Hu

    2013-06-01

    Natural disasters may lead to the outbreaks of infectious diseases because they increase the risk factors for infectious diseases. This paper reviews the risk factors for infectious diseases after natural disasters, especially earthquake, and the infectious diseases following disasters reported in recent years. The infectious diseases after earthquake include diarrhea, cholera, viral hepatitis, upper respiratory tract infection, tuberculosis, measles, leptospirosis, dengue fever, tetanus, and gas gangrene, as well as some rare infections. Children are vulnerable to infectious diseases, so pediatricians should pay more attention to the research on relationship between infectious diseases and natural disasters.

  6. The Incidence and Gastrointestinal Infectious Risk of Functional Gastrointestinal Disorders in a Healthy US AduIt PopuIation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    bowel syndrome. Scand J Gastroenterol 2000;35:306-11. . 26. Choudhury BK, Shi XZ, Sarna SK. Gene plasticity in colonic circular smooth muscle cells...Malik A. Din nella JE, Kwoh CK et al. Poor validation of medical record ICD-9 diagnoses of gout in a veterans affairs database. J Rheumatol 2009;36

  7. [Historical notes on Infectious Diseases Hospital Francisco Javier Muñiz in Buenos Aires, Argentina].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laval, Enrique

    2012-08-01

    The Infectious Diseases Hospital Francisco Javier Muñiz, Buenos Aires, Argentina, is the oldest in Latin America. It is over 100 years old and has a history worthy of pride. It became known as "Hospital of the pests" and was preceded by the old House of Insulation, which served as a quarantine station during epidemics of cholera, yellow fever and smallpox. The new House of Insulation, built in the neighborhood of Parque Patricios ("Barracks Hospital"), was renamed in 1904 in memory of Francisco Javier Muñiz, a former military doctor, naturalist and paleontologist. Its technical name is "Porteño Care Centre and National Reference Regional Infectious-Contagious Disease". It receives numerous national and foreign undergraduate and postgraduate students in its Departments of Infectious Diseases and Respiratory Diseases.

  8. Efficient local behavioral-change strategies to reduce the spread of epidemics in networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bu, Yilei; Gregory, Steve; Mills, Harriet L.

    2013-10-01

    It has recently become established that the spread of infectious diseases between humans is affected not only by the pathogen itself but also by changes in behavior as the population becomes aware of the epidemic, for example, social distancing. It is also well known that community structure (the existence of relatively densely connected groups of vertices) in contact networks influences the spread of disease. We propose a set of local strategies for social distancing, based on community structure, that can be employed in the event of an epidemic to reduce the epidemic size. Unlike most social distancing methods, ours do not require individuals to know the disease state (infected or susceptible, etc.) of others, and we do not make the unrealistic assumption that the structure of the entire contact network is known. Instead, the recommended behavior change is based only on an individual's local view of the network. Each individual avoids contact with a fraction of his/her contacts, using knowledge of his/her local network to decide which contacts should be avoided. If the behavior change occurs only when an individual becomes ill or aware of the disease, these strategies can substantially reduce epidemic size with a relatively small cost, measured by the number of contacts avoided.

  9. Deciphering emerging Zika and dengue viral epidemics: Implications for global maternal–child health burden

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ernest Tambo

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Summary: Since its discovery in 1947 in Uganda and control and eradication efforts have aimed at its vectors (Aedes mosquitoes in Latin America in the 1950s, an absolute neglect of Zika programs and interventions has been documented in Aedes endemic and epidemic-prone countries. The current unprecedented Zika viral epidemics and rapid spread in the Western hemisphere pose a substantial global threat, with associated anxiety and consequences. The lack of safe and effective drugs and vaccines against Zika or dengue epidemics further buttresses the realization from the West Africa Ebola outbreak that most emerging disease-prone countries are still poorly prepared for an emergency response. This paper examines knowledge gaps in both emerging and neglected arthropod-borne flavivirus infectious diseases associated with poverty and their implications for fostering local, national and regional emerging disease preparedness, effective and robust surveillance–response systems, sustained control and eventual elimination. Strengthening the regional and Global Health Flavivirus Surveillance-Response Network (GHFV-SRN with other models of socio-economic, climatic, environmental and ecological mitigation and adaptation strategies will be necessary to improve evidence-based national and global maternal–child health agenda and action plans. Keywords: Zika virus, Epidemics, Health, Preparedness, Surveillance, Maternal–child

  10. Drought and immunity determine the intensity of West Nile virus epidemics and climate change impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paull, Sara H; Horton, Daniel E; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Rastogi, Deeksha; Kramer, Laura D; Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Kilpatrick, A Marm

    2017-02-08

    The effect of global climate change on infectious disease remains hotly debated because multiple extrinsic and intrinsic drivers interact to influence transmission dynamics in nonlinear ways. The dominant drivers of widespread pathogens, like West Nile virus, can be challenging to identify due to regional variability in vector and host ecology, with past studies producing disparate findings. Here, we used analyses at national and state scales to examine a suite of climatic and intrinsic drivers of continental-scale West Nile virus epidemics, including an empirically derived mechanistic relationship between temperature and transmission potential that accounts for spatial variability in vectors. We found that drought was the primary climatic driver of increased West Nile virus epidemics, rather than within-season or winter temperatures, or precipitation independently. Local-scale data from one region suggested drought increased epidemics via changes in mosquito infection prevalence rather than mosquito abundance. In addition, human acquired immunity following regional epidemics limited subsequent transmission in many states. We show that over the next 30 years, increased drought severity from climate change could triple West Nile virus cases, but only in regions with low human immunity. These results illustrate how changes in drought severity can alter the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases. © 2017 The Author(s).

  11. Recurrent dynamics in an epidemic model due to stimulated bifurcation crossovers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Juanico, Drandreb Earl

    2015-01-01

    Epidemics are known to persist in the form of recurrence cycles. Despite intervention efforts through vaccination and targeted social distancing, peaks of activity for infectious diseases like influenza reappear over time. Analysis of a stochastic model is here undertaken to explore a proposed cycle-generating mechanism – the bifurcation crossover. Time series from simulations of the model exhibit oscillations similar to the temporal signature of influenza activity. Power-spectral density indicates a resonant frequency, which corresponds to the annual seasonality of influenza in temperate zones. The study finds that intervention actions influence the extinguishability of epidemic activity. Asymptotic solution to a backward Kolmogorov equation corresponds to a mean extinction time that is a function of both intervention efficacy and population size. Intervention efficacy must be greater than a certain threshold to increase the chances of extinguishing the epidemic. Agreement of the model with several phenomenological features of epidemic cycles lends to it a tractability that may serve as early warning of imminent outbreaks

  12. [Scabies epidemic in a sheltered workshop--what should be done?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayer, J; Wever, S; Lurz, C; Bröcker, E B

    2000-02-01

    Scabies is an infectious parasitic skin disease with a notable rising incidence in Germany. The disease is usually transmitted by close physical contact, but indirect spread e.g. by bedding is also possible. Due to its contagiousness, introduction of scabies into crowding living facilities, such as dormitories or kindergartens, can easily cause an epidemic outbreak. We describe an epidemic of scabies in a workshop for handicapped people in February 1998. A worker with severe scabies reported that numerous colleagues in both workshop and the associated hostel had complained of pruritus for months and that some of them already had undergone scabicide treatment. The number of contacts (staff, colleagues, friends, attendants, family) of our patient and the other already affected people was more than 460. The management of the workshop asked for help in handling the epidemic. We describe the cooperative efforts of the management, as well as hospital and private dermatologists, to evaluate all potential contacts and present a concept of treatment for the termination of such an epidemic outbreak of scabies.

  13. Recurrent dynamics in an epidemic model due to stimulated bifurcation crossovers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Juanico, Drandreb Earl [Department of Mathematics, Ateneo de Manila University, Loyola Heights, Quezon City, Philippines 1108 (Philippines); National Institute of Physics, University of the Philippines, Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines 1101 (Philippines)

    2015-05-15

    Epidemics are known to persist in the form of recurrence cycles. Despite intervention efforts through vaccination and targeted social distancing, peaks of activity for infectious diseases like influenza reappear over time. Analysis of a stochastic model is here undertaken to explore a proposed cycle-generating mechanism – the bifurcation crossover. Time series from simulations of the model exhibit oscillations similar to the temporal signature of influenza activity. Power-spectral density indicates a resonant frequency, which corresponds to the annual seasonality of influenza in temperate zones. The study finds that intervention actions influence the extinguishability of epidemic activity. Asymptotic solution to a backward Kolmogorov equation corresponds to a mean extinction time that is a function of both intervention efficacy and population size. Intervention efficacy must be greater than a certain threshold to increase the chances of extinguishing the epidemic. Agreement of the model with several phenomenological features of epidemic cycles lends to it a tractability that may serve as early warning of imminent outbreaks.

  14. The spatiotemporal trajectory of a dengue epidemic in a medium-sized city

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela G Morato

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases is important to allow for improvements of control measures. To investigate the spatiotemporal pattern of an epidemic dengue occurred at a medium-sized city in the Northeast Region of Brazil in 2009, we conducted an ecological study of the notified dengue cases georeferenced according to epidemiological week (EW and home address. Kernel density estimation and space-time interaction were analysed using the Knox method. The evolution of the epidemic was analysed using an animated projection technique. The dengue incidence was 6.918.7/100,000 inhabitants; the peak of the epidemic occurred from 8 February-1 March, EWs 6-9 (828.7/100,000 inhabitants. There were cases throughout the city and was identified space-time interaction. Three epicenters were responsible for spreading the disease in an expansion and relocation diffusion pattern. If the health services could detect in real time the epicenters and apply nimbly control measures, may possibly reduce the magnitude of dengue epidemics.

  15. Route prediction model of infectious diseases for 2018 Winter Olympics in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Eungyeong; Lee, Seok; Byun, Young Tae; Kim, Jae Hun; Lee, Taikjin; Lee, Hyuk-jae

    2014-01-01

    There are many types of respiratory infectious diseases caused by germs, virus, mycetes and parasites. Researchers recently have tried to develop mathematical models to predict the epidemic of infectious diseases. However, with the development of ground transportation system in modern society, the spread of infectious diseases became faster and more complicated in terms of the speed and the pathways. The route of infectious diseases during Vancouver Olympics was predicted based on the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model. In this model only the air traffic as an essential factor for the intercity migration of infectious diseases was involved. Here, we propose a multi-city transmission model to predict the infection route during 2018 Winter Olympics in Korea based on the pre-existing SIR model. Various types of transportation system such as a train, a car, a bus, and an airplane for the interpersonal contact in both inter- and intra-city are considered. Simulation is performed with assumptions and scenarios based on realistic factors including demographic, transportation and diseases data in Korea. Finally, we analyze an economic profit and loss caused by the variation of the number of tourists during the Olympics

  16. Route prediction model of infectious diseases for 2018 Winter Olympics in Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Eungyeong; Lee, Seok; Byun, Young Tae; Kim, Jae Hun; Lee, Hyuk-jae; Lee, Taikjin

    2014-03-01

    There are many types of respiratory infectious diseases caused by germs, virus, mycetes and parasites. Researchers recently have tried to develop mathematical models to predict the epidemic of infectious diseases. However, with the development of ground transportation system in modern society, the spread of infectious diseases became faster and more complicated in terms of the speed and the pathways. The route of infectious diseases during Vancouver Olympics was predicted based on the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model. In this model only the air traffic as an essential factor for the intercity migration of infectious diseases was involved. Here, we propose a multi-city transmission model to predict the infection route during 2018 Winter Olympics in Korea based on the pre-existing SIR model. Various types of transportation system such as a train, a car, a bus, and an airplane for the interpersonal contact in both inter- and intra-city are considered. Simulation is performed with assumptions and scenarios based on realistic factors including demographic, transportation and diseases data in Korea. Finally, we analyze an economic profit and loss caused by the variation of the number of tourists during the Olympics.

  17. Implementation and validation of an economic module in the Be-FAST model to predict costs generated by livestock disease epidemics: Application to classical swine fever epidemics in Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Carrión, E; Ivorra, B; Martínez-López, B; Ramos, A M; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, J M

    2016-04-01

    Be-FAST is a computer program based on a time-spatial stochastic spread mathematical model for studying the transmission of infectious livestock diseases within and between farms. The present work describes a new module integrated into Be-FAST to model the economic consequences of the spreading of classical swine fever (CSF) and other infectious livestock diseases within and between farms. CSF is financially one of the most damaging diseases in the swine industry worldwide. Specifically in Spain, the economic costs in the two last CSF epidemics (1997 and 2001) reached jointly more than 108 million euros. The present analysis suggests that severe CSF epidemics are associated with significant economic costs, approximately 80% of which are related to animal culling. Direct costs associated with control measures are strongly associated with the number of infected farms, while indirect costs are more strongly associated with epidemic duration. The economic model has been validated with economic information around the last outbreaks in Spain. These results suggest that our economic module may be useful for analysing and predicting economic consequences of livestock disease epidemics. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Modeling human gastrointestinal inflammatory diseases using microphysiological culture systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartman, Kira G; Bortner, James D; Falk, Gary W; Ginsberg, Gregory G; Jhala, Nirag; Yu, Jian; Martín, Martín G; Rustgi, Anil K; Lynch, John P

    2014-09-01

    Gastrointestinal illnesses are a significant health burden for the US population, with 40 million office visits each year for gastrointestinal complaints and nearly 250,000 deaths. Acute and chronic inflammations are a common element of many gastrointestinal diseases. Inflammatory processes may be initiated by a chemical injury (acid reflux in the esophagus), an infectious agent (Helicobacter pylori infection in the stomach), autoimmune processes (graft versus host disease after bone marrow transplantation), or idiopathic (as in the case of inflammatory bowel diseases). Inflammation in these settings can contribute to acute complaints (pain, bleeding, obstruction, and diarrhea) as well as chronic sequelae including strictures and cancer. Research into the pathophysiology of these conditions has been limited by the availability of primary human tissues or appropriate animal models that attempt to physiologically model the human disease. With the many recent advances in tissue engineering and primary human cell culture systems, it is conceivable that these approaches can be adapted to develop novel human ex vivo systems that incorporate many human cell types to recapitulate in vivo growth and differentiation in inflammatory microphysiological environments. Such an advance in technology would improve our understanding of human disease progression and enhance our ability to test for disease prevention strategies and novel therapeutics. We will review current models for the inflammatory and immunological aspects of Barrett's esophagus, acute graft versus host disease, and inflammatory bowel disease and explore recent advances in culture methodologies that make these novel microphysiological research systems possible. © 2014 by the Society for Experimental Biology and Medicine.

  19. Coupling effects on turning points of infectious diseases epidemics in scale-free networks

    OpenAIRE

    Kim, Kiseong; Lee, Sangyeon; Lee, Doheon; Lee, Kwang Hyung

    2017-01-01

    Background Pandemic is a typical spreading phenomenon that can be observed in the human society and is dependent on the structure of the social network. The Susceptible-Infective-Recovered (SIR) model describes spreading phenomena using two spreading factors; contagiousness (?) and recovery rate (?). Some network models are trying to reflect the social network, but the real structure is difficult to uncover. Methods We have developed a spreading phenomenon simulator that can input the epidemi...

  20. Transmission of infectious diseases en route to habitat hotspots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benavides, Julio; Walsh, Peter D; Meyers, Lauren Ancel; Raymond, Michel; Caillaud, Damien

    2012-01-01

    The spread of infectious diseases in wildlife populations is influenced by patterns of between-host contacts. Habitat "hotspots"--places attracting a large numbers of individuals or social groups--can significantly alter contact patterns and, hence, disease propagation. Research on the importance of habitat hotspots in wildlife epidemiology has primarily focused on how inter-individual contacts occurring at the hotspot itself increase disease transmission. However, in territorial animals, epidemiologically important contacts may primarily occur as animals cross through territories of conspecifics en route to habitat hotspots. So far, the phenomenon has received little attention. Here, we investigate the importance of these contacts in the case where infectious individuals keep visiting the hotspots and in the case where these individuals are not able to travel to the hotspot any more. We developed a simulation epidemiological model to investigate both cases in a scenario when transmission at the hotspot does not occur. We find that (i) hotspots still exacerbate epidemics, (ii) when infectious individuals do not travel to the hotspot, the most vulnerable individuals are those residing at intermediate distances from the hotspot rather than nearby, and (iii) the epidemiological vulnerability of a population is the highest when the number of hotspots is intermediate. By altering animal movements in their vicinity, habitat hotspots can thus strongly increase the spread of infectious diseases, even when disease transmission does not occur at the hotspot itself. Interestingly, when animals only visit the nearest hotspot, creating additional artificial hotspots, rather than reducing their number, may be an efficient disease control measure.

  1. Predicting extinction rates in stochastic epidemic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwartz, Ira B; Billings, Lora; Dykman, Mark; Landsman, Alexandra

    2009-01-01

    We investigate the stochastic extinction processes in a class of epidemic models. Motivated by the process of natural disease extinction in epidemics, we examine the rate of extinction as a function of disease spread. We show that the effective entropic barrier for extinction in a susceptible–infected–susceptible epidemic model displays scaling with the distance to the bifurcation point, with an unusual critical exponent. We make a direct comparison between predictions and numerical simulations. We also consider the effect of non-Gaussian vaccine schedules, and show numerically how the extinction process may be enhanced when the vaccine schedules are Poisson distributed

  2. Economic and Social Factors in Designing Disease Control Strategies for Epidemics on Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleczkowski, A.; Dybiec, B.; Gilligan, C. A.

    2006-11-01

    Models for control of epidemics on local, global and small-world networks are considered, with only partial information accessible about the status of individuals and their connections. The main goal of an effective control measure is to stop the epidemic at a lowest possible cost, including treatment and cost necessary to track the disease spread. We show that delay in detection of infectious individuals and presence of long-range links are the most important factors determining the cost. However, the details of long-range links are usually the least-known element of the social interactions due to their occasional character and potentially short life-span. We show that under some conditions on the probability of disease spread, it is advisable to attempt to track those links, even if this involves additional costs. Thus, collecting some additional knowledge about the network structure might be beneficial to ensure a successful and cost-effective control.

  3. Adding fuel to the fire: alcohol's effect on the HIV epidemic in Sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hahn, Judith A; Woolf-King, Sarah E; Muyindike, Winnie

    2011-09-01

    Alcohol consumption adds fuel to the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). SSA has the highest prevalence of HIV infection and heavy episodic drinking in the world. Alcohol consumption is associated with behaviors such as unprotected sex and poor medication adherence, and biological factors such as increased susceptibility to infection, comorbid conditions, and infectiousness, which may synergistically increase HIV acquisition and onward transmission. Few interventions to decrease alcohol consumption and alcohol-related sexual risk behaviors have been developed or implemented in SSA, and few HIV or health policies or services in SSA address alcohol consumption. Structural interventions, such as regulating the availability, price, and advertising of alcohol, are challenging to implement due to the preponderance of homemade alcohol and beverage industry resistance. This article reviews the current knowledge on how alcohol impacts the HIV epidemic in SSA, summarizes current interventions and policies, and identifies areas for increased research and development.

  4. Mathematical Analysis of an Epidemic System in the Presence of Optimal Control and Population Dispersal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nandi, Swapan Kumar; Jana, Soovoojeet; Mandal, Manotosh; Kar, T. K.

    In this paper, we proposed and analyzed a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) type epidemic model to investigate the effect of transport-related infectious diseases namely tuberculosis, measles, rubella, influenza, sexually transmitted diseases, etc. The existence and stability criteria of both the diseases include free equilibrium point and endemic equilibrium point which are established and the threshold parametric condition for which the system passes through a transcritical bifurcation is also obtained. Optimal control strategy for control parameters is formulated and solved both theoretically and numerically. Lastly, we not only illustrate our theoretical results through graphical illustrations but also computer simulation is used to show that our model would be a good model to study the SARS epidemic in 2003.

  5. Impact of individual behaviour change on the spread of emerging infectious diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Q L; Tang, S Y; Xiao, Y N

    2018-03-15

    Human behaviour plays an important role in the spread of emerging infectious diseases, and understanding the influence of behaviour changes on epidemics can be key to improving control efforts. However, how the dynamics of individual behaviour changes affects the development of emerging infectious disease is a key public health issue. To develop different formula for individual behaviour change and introduce how to embed it into a dynamic model of infectious diseases, we choose A/H1N1 and Ebola as typical examples, combined with the epidemic reported cases and media related news reports. Thus, the logistic model with the health belief model is used to determine behaviour decisions through the health belief model constructs. Furthermore, we propose 4 candidate infectious disease models without and with individual behaviour change and use approximate Bayesian computation based on sequential Monte Carlo method for model selection. The main results indicate that the classical compartment model without behaviour change and the model with average rate of behaviour change depicted by an exponential function could fit the observed data best. The results provide a new way on how to choose an infectious disease model to predict the disease prevalence trend or to evaluate the influence of intervention measures on disease control. However, sensitivity analyses indicate that the accumulated number of hospital notifications and deaths could be largely reduced as the rate of behaviour change increases. Therefore, in terms of mitigating emerging infectious diseases, both media publicity focused on how to guide people's behaviour change and positive responses of individuals are critical. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  6. Melioidosis: An emerging infectious disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raja N

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Infectious diseases account for a third of all the deaths in the developing world. Achievements in understanding the basic microbiology, pathogenesis, host defenses and expanded epidemiology of infectious diseases have resulted in better management and reduced mortality. However, an emerging infectious disease, melioidosis, is becoming endemic in the tropical regions of the world and is spreading to non-endemic areas. This article highlights the current understanding of melioidosis including advances in diagnosis, treatment and prevention. Better understanding of melioidosis is essential, as it is life-threatening and if untreated, patients can succumb to it. Our sources include a literature review, information from international consensus meetings on melioidosis and ongoing discussions within the medical and scientific community.

  7. Infectious Disease, Endangerment, and Extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacPhee, Ross D. E.; Greenwood, Alex D.

    2013-01-01

    Infectious disease, especially virulent infectious disease, is commonly regarded as a cause of fluctuation or decline in biological populations. However, it is not generally considered as a primary factor in causing the actual endangerment or extinction of species. We review here the known historical examples in which disease has, or has been assumed to have had, a major deleterious impact on animal species, including extinction, and highlight some recent cases in which disease is the chief suspect in causing the outright endangerment of particular species. We conclude that the role of disease in historical extinctions at the population or species level may have been underestimated. Recent methodological breakthroughs may lead to a better understanding of the past and present roles of infectious disease in influencing population fitness and other parameters. PMID:23401844

  8. [Epizootic and epidemic manifestation of natural foci of tularemia in Moscow region (1965-2013)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demidova, T N; Popov, V P; Polukhina, A N; Orlov, D S; Mescheryakova, I S; Mikhailova, T V

    2015-01-01

    Detection of contemporary features of tularemia focimanifestations, determination of territories of high epidemic risk in various landscape zones and creation of a map of foci territories of Moscow Region for isolation of tularemia infectious agent cultures and registered human morbidity for justified planning of prophylaxis measures. Report materials of epizootologic examinations of natural foci for 1965-2013, 156 maps of epidemiologic examination of cases of human infection with tularemia, results of studies of casting of predatory birds and dung of predatory mammals were used. Registered morbidity and isolation of tularemia infectious agent cultures from 1965 to date were applied to an electronic map of Moscow Region by sign method using modern. GIS-technologies (MapInfo 10.5 program). Electronic maps Ingit at 1:200,000 scale, as well as Google Earth program were used to search for base points. Analysis of morbidity has revealed structure change in human tularemia morbidity--an increase of the fraction of urban population and a decrease of the fraction of patients among rural inhabitants, unimmunized against this infection are mostly ill. The presence of DNA of tularemia causative agent in biological objects in the complex with serologic and bacteriological studies was shown to allow to detect flaccid epizootics even at low numbers of rodents. Cartographic reflection of registered morbidity and isolation of tularemia infectious agent cultures allowed to show territories with various degrees of epizootic activity and epidemic manifestation. Positive results of serologic and molecular-genetic studies of environmental objects gives evident on epizootic activity and constant risk of aggravation of epidemic situation for this infection.

  9. Immunochemical studies of infectious mononucleosis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fletcher, M.A.; Lo, T.M.; Levey, B.A.; Graves, W.R.

    1977-01-01

    The coated-tube method of solid-phase radioimmunoassay has been adapted to the detection of heterophile antibodies and antigens of infectious mononucleosis. Disposable plastic hemagglutination trays were coated with purified glycoprotein from horse erythrocytes and the subsequent uptake of antibody from test sera was detected by radio-iodinated horse erythrocyte glycoprotein. In a preliminary survey of sera from patients with infectious mononucleosis and sera from controls, the assay proved highly sensitive and specific. The test system was also useful in a competitive binding assay for immunochemical studies of glycoproteins from other heterophile antigen-positive species

  10. Infectious Diseases in the Homeless

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    In this podcast, Ted Pestorius speaks with Dr. Marian McDonald, Associate Director for Minority and Women’s Health at CDC about an article in September 2008 issue of Emerging Infectious Diseases on infectious diseases in the homeless. There are an estimated 100 million homeless people worldwide today, and this number is likely to grow. The homeless population is vulnerable to many diseases, including HIV, hepatitis, and tuberculosis. Dr. McDonald discusses why this population is so vulnerable.

  11. Postinfectious Functional Gastrointestinal Disorders: A Focus on Epidemiology and Research Agendas

    OpenAIRE

    Deising, Adam; Gutierrez, Ramiro L.; Porter, Chad K.; Riddle, Mark S.

    2013-01-01

    Epidemiologic research is fundamental and complementary to our understanding of disease and development of primary, secondary, and tertiary interventions. To put the current evidence into context and identify gaps and research priorities in the areas of disease attribution, burden of disease, clinical characterization, and management of postinfectious functional gastrointestinal disorders (PI-FGDs), we took a multidisciplinary approach from the domains of infectious disease, gastroenterology,...

  12. Understanding Spatio-Temporal Variability in the Reproduction Ratio of the Bluetongue (BTV-1 Epidemic in Southern Spain (Andalusia in 2007 Using Epidemic Trees.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S Napp

    Full Text Available Andalusia (Southern Spain is considered one of the main routes of introduction of bluetongue virus (BTV into Europe, evidenced by a devastating epidemic caused by BTV-1 in 2007. Understanding the pattern and the drivers of BTV-1 spread in Andalusia is critical for effective detection and control of future epidemics. A long-standing metric for quantifying the behaviour of infectious diseases is the case-reproduction ratio (Rt, defined as the average number of secondary cases arising from a single infected case at time t (for t>0. Here we apply a method using epidemic trees to estimate the between-herd case reproduction ratio directly from epidemic data allowing the spatial and temporal variability in transmission to be described. We then relate this variability to predictors describing the hosts, vectors and the environment to better understand why the epidemic spread more quickly in some regions or periods. The Rt value for the BTV-1 epidemic in Andalusia peaked in July at 4.6, at the start of the epidemic, then decreased to 2.2 by August, dropped below 1 by September (0.8, and by October it had decreased to 0.02. BTV spread was the consequence of both local transmission within established disease foci and BTV expansion to distant new areas (i.e. new foci, which resulted in a high variability in BTV transmission, not only among different areas, but particularly through time, which suggests that general control measures applied at broad spatial scales are unlikely to be effective. This high variability through time was probably due to the impact of temperature on BTV transmission, as evidenced by a reduction in the value of Rt by 0.0041 for every unit increase (day in the extrinsic incubation period (EIP, which is itself directly dependent on temperature. Moreover, within the range of values at which BTV-1 transmission occurred in Andalusia (20.6°C to 29.5°C there was a positive correlation between temperature and Rt values, although the

  13. Determinants and Drivers of Infectious Disease Threat Events in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semenza, Jan C; Lindgren, Elisabet; Balkanyi, Laszlo; Espinosa, Laura; Almqvist, My S; Penttinen, Pasi; Rocklöv, Joacim

    2016-04-01

    Infectious disease threat events (IDTEs) are increasing in frequency worldwide. We analyzed underlying drivers of 116 IDTEs detected in Europe during 2008-2013 by epidemic intelligence at the European Centre of Disease Prevention and Control. Seventeen drivers were identified and categorized into 3 groups: globalization and environment, sociodemographic, and public health systems. A combination of >2 drivers was responsible for most IDTEs. The driver category globalization and environment contributed to 61% of individual IDTEs, and the top 5 individual drivers of all IDTEs were travel and tourism, food and water quality, natural environment, global trade, and climate. Hierarchical cluster analysis of all drivers identified travel and tourism as a distinctly separate driver. Monitoring and modeling such disease drivers can help anticipate future IDTEs and strengthen control measures. More important, intervening directly on these underlying drivers can diminish the likelihood of the occurrence of an IDTE and reduce the associated human and economic costs.

  14. Phylogeography of infectious haematopoietic necrosis virus in North America

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kurath, G.; Garver, K.A.; Troyer, R.M.

    2003-01-01

    Infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV) is a rhabdoviral pathogen that infects wild and cultured salmonid fish throughout the Pacific Northwest of North America. IHNV causes severe epidemics in young fish and can cause disease or occur asymptomatically in adults. In a broad survey of 323...... IHNV field isolates, sequence analysis of a 303 nucleotide variable region within the glycoprotein gene revealed a maximum nucleotide diversity of 8(.)6%, indicating low genetic diversity overall for this virus. Phylogenetic analysis revealed three major virus genogroups, designated U, M and L, which...... varied in topography and geographical range. Intragenogroup genetic. diversity measures indicated that the M genogroup had three- to fourfold more diversity than the other genogroups and suggested relatively rapid evolution of the M genogroup and stasis within the U genogroup. We speculate that factors...

  15. Myalgic encephalomyelitis, chronic fatigue syndrome: An infectious disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Underhill, R A

    2015-12-01

    The etiology of myalgic encephalomyelitis also known as chronic fatigue syndrome or ME/CFS has not been established. Controversies exist over whether it is an organic disease or a psychological disorder and even the existence of ME/CFS as a disease entity is sometimes denied. Suggested causal hypotheses have included psychosomatic disorders, infectious agents, immune dysfunctions, autoimmunity, metabolic disturbances, toxins and inherited genetic factors. Clinical, immunological and epidemiological evidence supports the hypothesis that: ME/CFS is an infectious disease; the causal pathogen persists in patients; the pathogen can be transmitted by casual contact; host factors determine susceptibility to the illness; and there is a population of healthy carriers, who may be able to shed the pathogen. ME/CFS is endemic globally as sporadic cases and occasional cluster outbreaks (epidemics). Cluster outbreaks imply an infectious agent. An abrupt flu-like onset resembling an infectious illness occurs in outbreak patients and many sporadic patients. Immune responses in sporadic patients resemble immune responses in other infectious diseases. Contagion is shown by finding secondary cases in outbreaks, and suggested by a higher prevalence of ME/CFS in sporadic patients' genetically unrelated close contacts (spouses/partners) than the community. Abortive cases, sub-clinical cases, and carrier state individuals were found in outbreaks. The chronic phase of ME/CFS does not appear to be particularly infective. Some healthy patient-contacts show immune responses similar to patients' immune responses, suggesting exposure to the same antigen (a pathogen). The chronicity of symptoms and of immune system changes and the occurrence of secondary cases suggest persistence of a causal pathogen. Risk factors which predispose to developing ME/CFS are: a close family member with ME/CFS; inherited genetic factors; female gender; age; rest/activity; previous exposure to stress or toxins

  16. Epidemic spreading in a hierarchical social network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grabowski, A; Kosiński, R A

    2004-09-01

    A model of epidemic spreading in a population with a hierarchical structure of interpersonal interactions is described and investigated numerically. The structure of interpersonal connections is based on a scale-free network. Spatial localization of individuals belonging to different social groups, and the mobility of a contemporary community, as well as the effectiveness of different interpersonal interactions, are taken into account. Typical relations characterizing the spreading process, like a range of epidemic and epidemic curves, are discussed. The influence of preventive vaccinations on the spreading process is investigated. The critical value of preventively vaccinated individuals that is sufficient for the suppression of an epidemic is calculated. Our results are compared with solutions of the master equation for the spreading process and good agreement of the character of this process is found.

  17. Modeling Epidemics Spreading on Social Contact Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhaoyang; Wang, Honggang; Wang, Chonggang; Fang, Hua

    2015-09-01

    Social contact networks and the way people interact with each other are the key factors that impact on epidemics spreading. However, it is challenging to model the behavior of epidemics based on social contact networks due to their high dynamics. Traditional models such as susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model ignore the crowding or protection effect and thus has some unrealistic assumption. In this paper, we consider the crowding or protection effect and develop a novel model called improved SIR model. Then, we use both deterministic and stochastic models to characterize the dynamics of epidemics on social contact networks. The results from both simulations and real data set conclude that the epidemics are more likely to outbreak on social contact networks with higher average degree. We also present some potential immunization strategies, such as random set immunization, dominating set immunization, and high degree set immunization to further prove the conclusion.

  18. The prediction of epidemics through mathematical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaus, Catherine

    2014-01-01

    Mathematical models may be resorted to in an endeavor to predict the development of epidemics. The SIR model is one of the applications. Still too approximate, the use of statistics awaits more data in order to come closer to reality.

  19. The hidden epidemic: confronting sexually transmitted diseases

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Eng, Thomas R; Butler, William T

    .... In addition, STDs increase the risk of HIV transmission. The Hidden Epidemic examines the scope of sexually transmitted infections in the United States and provides a critical assessment of the nation's response to this public health crisis...

  20. Epidemic spreading on weighted complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Ye; Liu, Chuang; Zhang, Chu-Xu; Zhang, Zi-Ke

    2014-01-01

    Nowadays, the emergence of online services provides various multi-relation information to support the comprehensive understanding of the epidemic spreading process. In this Letter, we consider the edge weights to represent such multi-role relations. In addition, we perform detailed analysis of two representative metrics, outbreak threshold and epidemic prevalence, on SIS and SIR models. Both theoretical and simulation results find good agreements with each other. Furthermore, experiments show that, on fully mixed networks, the weight distribution on edges would not affect the epidemic results once the average weight of whole network is fixed. This work may shed some light on the in-depth understanding of epidemic spreading on multi-relation and weighted networks.

  1. Epidemic spreading on weighted complex networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sun, Ye [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Liu, Chuang, E-mail: liuchuang@hznu.edu.cn [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Zhang, Chu-Xu [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Zhang, Zi-Ke, E-mail: zhangzike@gmail.com [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China)

    2014-01-31

    Nowadays, the emergence of online services provides various multi-relation information to support the comprehensive understanding of the epidemic spreading process. In this Letter, we consider the edge weights to represent such multi-role relations. In addition, we perform detailed analysis of two representative metrics, outbreak threshold and epidemic prevalence, on SIS and SIR models. Both theoretical and simulation results find good agreements with each other. Furthermore, experiments show that, on fully mixed networks, the weight distribution on edges would not affect the epidemic results once the average weight of whole network is fixed. This work may shed some light on the in-depth understanding of epidemic spreading on multi-relation and weighted networks.

  2. Pains and Gains from China's Experiences with Emerging Epidemics: From SARS to H7N9

    OpenAIRE

    Wei, Pengfei; Cai, Zelang; Hua, Jinwen; Yu, Weijia; Chen, Jiajie; Kang, Kang; Qiu, Congling; Ye, Lanlan; Hu, Jiayun; Ji, Kunmei

    2016-01-01

    Over the recent decades, China experienced several emerging virus outbreaks including those caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome- (SARS-) coronavirus (Cov), H5N1 virus, and H7N9 virus. The SARS tragedy revealed faults in China’s infectious disease prevention system, propelling the Chinese government to enact reforms that enabled better combating of the subsequent H1N1 and H7N9 avian flu epidemics. The system is buttressed by three fundamental, mutually reinforcing components: (1) e...

  3. Rhodotorula Endogenous Endophthalmitis: A Novel Harbinger of the Injection Drug Epidemic in the United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Preston M. Luong

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Endogenous endophthalmitis is a rare but feared infectious ocular complication of injection drug use (IDU. The recent opioid epidemic in the United States threatens to increase the incidence of this disease. We report the first case of endogenous endophthalmitis in the United States caused by the emerging fungal pathogen Rhodotorula in an injection drug user which led to no light perception vision (NLP. Worldwide experience with Rhodotorula endogenous endophthalmitis is limited, but existing cases suggest infection by this particular fungal genus has a grim prognosis.

  4. Epidemics and rumours in complex networks

    CERN Document Server

    Draief, Moez

    2009-01-01

    Information propagation through peer-to-peer systems, online social systems, wireless mobile ad hoc networks and other modern structures can be modelled as an epidemic on a network of contacts. Understanding how epidemic processes interact with network topology allows us to predict ultimate course, understand phase transitions and develop strategies to control and optimise dissemination. This book is a concise introduction for applied mathematicians and computer scientists to basic models, analytical tools and mathematical and algorithmic results. Mathematical tools introduced include coupling

  5. Phylodynamic analysis of HIV sub-epidemics in Mochudi, Botswana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vlad Novitsky

    2015-12-01

    Real-time HIV genotyping and breaking down local HIV epidemics into phylogenetically distinct sub-epidemics may help to reveal the structure and dynamics of HIV transmission networks in communities, and aid in the design of targeted interventions for members of the acute sub-epidemics that likely fuel local HIV/AIDS epidemics.

  6. Prediction of meningococcal meningitis epidemics in western Africa by using climate information

    Science.gov (United States)

    YAKA, D. P.; Sultan, B.; Tarbangdo, F.; Thiaw, W. M.

    2013-12-01

    The variations of certain climatic parameters and the degradation of ecosystems, can affect human's health by influencing the transmission, the spatiotemporal repartition and the intensity of infectious diseases. It is mainly the case of meningococcal meningitis (MCM) whose epidemics occur particularly in Sahelo-Soudanian climatic area of Western Africa under quite particular climatic conditions. Meningococcal Meningitis (MCM) is a contagious infection disease due to the bacteria Neisseria meningitis. MCM epidemics occur worldwide but the highest incidence is observed in the "meningitis belt" of sub-Saharan Africa, stretching from Senegal to Ethiopia. In spite of standards, strategies of prevention and control of MCS epidemic from World Health Organization (WHO) and States, African Sahelo-Soudanian countries remain frequently afflicted by disastrous epidemics. In fact, each year, during the dry season (February-April), 25 to 250 thousands of cases are observed. Children under 15 are particularly affected. Among favourable conditions for the resurgence and dispersion of the disease, climatic conditions may be important inducing seasonal fluctuations in disease incidence and contributing to explain the spatial pattern of the disease roughly circumscribed to the ecological Sahelo-Sudanian band. In this study, we tried to analyse the relationships between climatic factors, ecosystems degradation and MCM for a better understanding of MCM epidemic dynamic and their prediction. We have shown that MCM epidemics, whether at the regional, national or local level, occur in a specific period of the year, mainly from January to May characterised by a dry, hot and sandy weather. We have identified both in situ (meteorological synoptic stations) and satellitales climatic variables (NCEP reanalysis dataset) whose seasonal variability is dominating in MCM seasonal transmission. Statistical analysis have measured the links between seasonal variation of certain climatic parameters

  7. Rapid simulation of spatial epidemics: a spectral method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brand, Samuel P C; Tildesley, Michael J; Keeling, Matthew J

    2015-04-07

    Spatial structure and hence the spatial position of host populations plays a vital role in the spread of infection. In the majority of situations, it is only possible to predict the spatial spread of infection using simulation models, which can be computationally demanding especially for large population sizes. Here we develop an approximation method that vastly reduces this computational burden. We assume that the transmission rates between individuals or sub-populations are determined by a spatial transmission kernel. This kernel is assumed to be isotropic, such that the transmission rate is simply a function of the distance between susceptible and infectious individuals; as such this provides the ideal mechanism for modelling localised transmission in a spatial environment. We show that the spatial force of infection acting on all susceptibles can be represented as a spatial convolution between the transmission kernel and a spatially extended 'image' of the infection state. This representation allows the rapid calculation of stochastic rates of infection using fast-Fourier transform (FFT) routines, which greatly improves the computational efficiency of spatial simulations. We demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of this fast spectral rate recalculation (FSR) method with two examples: an idealised scenario simulating an SIR-type epidemic outbreak amongst N habitats distributed across a two-dimensional plane; the spread of infection between US cattle farms, illustrating that the FSR method makes continental-scale outbreak forecasting feasible with desktop processing power. The latter model demonstrates which areas of the US are at consistently high risk for cattle-infections, although predictions of epidemic size are highly dependent on assumptions about the tail of the transmission kernel. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Modelling control of epidemics spreading by long-range interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dybiec, Bartłomiej; Kleczkowski, Adam; Gilligan, Christopher A

    2009-10-06

    We have studied the spread of epidemics characterized by a mixture of local and non-local interactions. The infection spreads on a two-dimensional lattice with the fixed nearest neighbour connections. In addition, long-range dynamical links are formed by moving agents (vectors). Vectors perform random walks, with step length distributed according to a thick-tail distribution. Two distributions are considered in this paper, an alpha-stable distribution describing self-similar vector movement, yet characterized by an infinite variance and an exponential power characterized by a large but finite variance. Such long-range interactions are hard to track and make control of epidemics very difficult. We also allowed for cryptic infection, whereby an infected individual on the lattice can be infectious prior to showing any symptoms of infection or disease. To account for such cryptic spread, we considered a control strategy in which not only detected, i.e. symptomatic, individuals but also all individuals within a certain control neighbourhood are treated upon the detection of disease. We show that it is possible to eradicate the disease by using such purely local control measures, even in the presence of long-range jumps. In particular, we show that the success of local control and the choice of the optimal strategy depend in a non-trivial way on the dispersal patterns of the vectors. By characterizing these patterns using the stability index of the alpha-stable distribution to change the power-law behaviour or the exponent characterizing the decay of an exponential power distribution, we show that infection can be successfully contained using relatively small control neighbourhoods for two limiting cases for long-distance dispersal and for vectors that are much more limited in their dispersal range.

  9. Hepatic lesions that mimic metastasis on radiological imaging during chemotherapy for gastrointestinal malignancy: Recent updates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    You, Sung Hye; Park, Beom Jin; Kim, Yeul Hong [Anam Hospital, Korea University College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-06-15

    During chemotherapy in patients with gastrointestinal malignancy, the hepatic lesions may occur as chemotherapy-induced lesions or tumor-associated lesions, with exceptions for infectious conditions and other incidentalomas. Focal hepatic lesions arising from chemotherapy-induced hepatopathies (such as chemotherapy-induced sinusoidal injury and steatosis) and tumor-associated eosinophilic abscess should be considered a mimicker of metastasis in patients with gastrointestinal malignancy. Accumulating evidence suggests that chemotherapy for gastrointestinal malignancy in the liver has roles in both the therapeutic effects for hepatic metastasis and injury to the non-tumor bearing hepatic parenchyma. In this article, we reviewed the updated concept of chemotherapy-induced hepatopathies and tumor-associated eosinophilic abscess in the liver, focusing on the pathological and radiological findings. Awareness of the causative chemo-agent, pathophysiology, and characteristic imaging findings of these mimickers is critical for accurate diagnosis and avoidance of unnecessary exposure of the patient to invasive tissue-based diagnosis and operation.

  10. African Journal of Infectious Diseases

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The African Journal of Infectious Diseases accepts original research papers on the ... Reports of research related to any aspect of the fields of microbiology, ... Vol 12, No 1S (2018) ... oxygen treatment of HIV-1 infected on Peripheral Blood Mononuclear Cells (PBMCS) · EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT

  11. Emerging Infectious Diseases Cover Art

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2017-07-26

    Byron Breedlove, managing editor of the EID Journal, discusses his approach to cover art.  Created: 7/26/2017 by National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (NCEZID).   Date Released: 7/26/2017.

  12. Facts about Infectious Diseases (ID)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... an ID Specialist? Facts about ID Pocketcard Infectious diseases are caused by microscopic organisms that penetrate the body’s natural ... from diseases such as AIDS or treatment of diseases such as cancer, may allow ... of contaminated food or water, bites from vectors such as ticks or mosquitoes ...

  13. Deforestation and avian infectious diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sehgal, R N M

    2010-03-15

    In this time of unprecedented global change, infectious diseases will impact humans and wildlife in novel and unknown ways. Climate change, the introduction of invasive species, urbanization, agricultural practices and the loss of biodiversity have all been implicated in increasing the spread of infectious pathogens. In many regards, deforestation supersedes these other global events in terms of its immediate potential global effects in both tropical and temperate regions. The effects of deforestation on the spread of pathogens in birds are largely unknown. Birds harbor many of the same types of pathogens as humans and in addition can spread infectious agents to humans and other wildlife. It is thought that avifauna have gone extinct due to infectious diseases and many are presently threatened, especially endemic island birds. It is clear that habitat degradation can pose a direct threat to many bird species but it is uncertain how these alterations will affect disease transmission and susceptibility to disease. The migration and dispersal of birds can also change with habitat degradation, and thus expose populations to novel pathogens. Some recent work has shown that the results of landscape transformation can have confounding effects on avian malaria, other haemosporidian parasites and viruses. Now with advances in many technologies, including mathematical and computer modeling, genomics and satellite tracking, scientists have tools to further research the disease ecology of deforestation. This research will be imperative to help predict and prevent outbreaks that could affect avifauna, humans and other wildlife worldwide.

  14. How infectious is SARS virus

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. How infectious is SARS virus. Influenza: 1 patient infects ten people. SARS: 1 patient infects 2-4 people. Incubation period 10 days. Are there `silent´ cases ? Is quarantine enough ? How will it behave if and when it returns ?

  15. Infectious diseases in Poland in 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadkowska-Todys, Małgorzata; Zieliński, Andrzej; Czarkowski, Mirosław P

    The aim of the study is to assess epidemiological situation of infectious and parasitic diseases in Poland in 2014, and an indication of the potential health risks from communicable diseases occurring in other areas of the globe. This paper is a summary of the analysis and evaluation of the results of epidemiological surveillance of infectious diseases in Poland in 2014, and those elements of European and global epidemiological background, which in this period had an impact on the epidemiological situation in Poland or constituted a threat. The main source of data for this study are statistical reports included in annual bulletins “Infectious diseases and poisoning in Poland in 2014” and “Immunizations in Poland in 2014” (NIPH-PZH, GIS, Warsaw 2015) and the data contained in the articles of „Epidemiological chronicle” presented in the Data on deaths are based on the statement of the Department for Demographic Research and Labour Market CSO presenting numbers of deaths from infectious and parasitic diseases registered in Poland in 2014, and in the previous years. Upper respiratory tract infection classified as “suspected flu and the flu season” in the since many years are the largest position among the diseases subject to disease surveillance. In the last decade, particularly large increase in the incidence of upper respiratory tract infection was reported in the flu season 2013., when the increase in comparison to the median of years 2008-2012 amounted to 189.8%. In 2014. Number of reported cases was 3 137 056 which represented a nonsignificant decrease of 0.8% compared with the previous year. However, compared to the median of the years 2008-2012 it was an increase of 187.4%. Better then based on calendar year is a picture obtained by examining the incidence of seasonal periods in the annual, but counted from 1 September to 31 August of the following year. In such a setup, in the 2012/2013 season were recorded 3 025 258 of cases, and in the season

  16. Scintigraphic evaluation of gastrointestinal motility disorders

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choe, Jae Gol [College of Medicine, Korea Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2001-02-01

    Current scintigraphic tests of gastrointestinal motor function provides relevant pathophysiologic information, but their clinical utility is controversial. Many scintigraphic methods are developed to investigate gastrointestinal motility from oral cavity to colon. These are esophageal transit scintigraphy, oropharyngeal transit study, gastric emptying test, small bowel transit time measurement, colon transit study and gastroesopahgeal reflux scintigraphy. Scintigraphy of gastrointestinal tract is the most physiologic and noninvasive method to evaluate gastrointestinal motility disorders. Stomach emptying test is regarded as a gold standard in motility study. Gastrointestinal transit scintigraphy also has a certain role in assessment of drug effect to GI motility and changes after theraphy of motility disorders. Scintigraphy provides noninvasive and quantitative assessment of physiological transit throughout the gastrointestinal tract, and it is extremely useful for diagnosing gastrointestinal motor dysfunction. This article reviews the current procedures, indications, significance and guidelines for gastrointestinal motility measurements by scintigraphy.

  17. Scintigraphic evaluation of gastrointestinal motility disorders

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choe, Jae Gol

    2001-01-01

    Current scintigraphic tests of gastrointestinal motor function provides relevant pathophysiologic information, but their clinical utility is controversial. Many scintigraphic methods are developed to investigate gastrointestinal motility from oral cavity to colon. These are esophageal transit scintigraphy, oropharyngeal transit study, gastric emptying test, small bowel transit time measurement, colon transit study and gastroesopahgeal reflux scintigraphy. Scintigraphy of gastrointestinal tract is the most physiologic and noninvasive method to evaluate gastrointestinal motility disorders. Stomach emptying test is regarded as a gold standard in motility study. Gastrointestinal transit scintigraphy also has a certain role in assessment of drug effect to GI motility and changes after theraphy of motility disorders. Scintigraphy provides noninvasive and quantitative assessment of physiological transit throughout the gastrointestinal tract, and it is extremely useful for diagnosing gastrointestinal motor dysfunction. This article reviews the current procedures, indications, significance and guidelines for gastrointestinal motility measurements by scintigraphy

  18. Gastrointestinal Carcinoid Tumors—Health Professional Version

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gastrointestinal carcinoid tumors are rare, slow-growing tumors that originate in the neuroendocrine cells in the GI tract. Find evidence-based information on gastrointestinal carcinoid tumors treatment and research.

  19. GASTROINTESTINAL FOOD ALLERGY IN CHILDREN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Svetlana G. Makarova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, there has been a significant increase in the prevalence  of food allergies. Pathological conditions associated  with a food intolerance are becoming an increasingly urgent problem of pediatrics. According to different researchers, allergic lesions of the gastrointestinal tract occurs in 25–50% of patients with such common pathology as an allergy to cow's milk proteins. The severity of diseases  associated  with food allergies and their prognosis  depend largely on early diagnosis and adequate treatment. Difficulties and errors  in the diagnosis  of gastrointestinal  food allergies  are associated  with both subjective  and objective  reasons,  primarily due to the fact that gastrointestinal  reactions to food are often delayed and non-IgE-mediated. The article describes clinical forms of gastrointestinal food allergy according to the existing classification. Diagnostic algorithms and modern approaches  to differential diagnosis of disease based on evidence-based  medicine and corresponding to international consensus papers are given.

  20. GASTROINTESTINAL TRACT OF CLARIAS GARIEPINUS ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DR. AMINU

    one hundred and ninety nine (199) were infested fish samples from gills and gastrointestinal tract .... Body cavity of fish were dissected using a pair of scissors and different portion of the gut (Oesophagus, stomach, intestine and rectum) were isolated and kept in .... Arme, C. and Wakey, M. (1970): The physiology of fishes.

  1. Nutritional management of gastrointestinal malignancies ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The evidence connecting food and gastrointestinal cancers from epidemiological studies, case-control studies, and prospective observational studies, indicates that determining the independent effects of specific nutrients is extremely diffi cult, given the many potential environmental factors to consider. The nutritional ...

  2. Approach to upper gastrointestinal bleeding

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage has a variety of causes (Table 1) and is the commonest complication of peptic ulceration and portal hypertension. Peptic ulceration in the duo- denum or stomach and oesophageal varices are the conditions most often responsible for patients who have the potential to present.

  3. Immunity to gastrointestinal nematode infections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sorobetea, D.; Svensson Frej, M.; Grencis, R.

    2018-01-01

    Numerous species of nematodes have evolved to inhabit the gastrointestinal tract of animals and humans, with over a billion of the world's population infected with at least one species. These large multicellular pathogens present a considerable and complex challenge to the host immune system give...

  4. Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumors: A Case Report

    OpenAIRE

    Sashidharan, Palankezhe; Matele, Apoorva; Matele, Usha; Al Felahi, Nowfel; Kassem, Khalid F.

    2014-01-01

    Advances in the identification of gastrointestinal stromal tumors, its molecular and immunohiostochemical basis, and its management have been a watershed in the treatment of gastrointestinal tumors. This paradigm shift occurred over the last two decades and gastrointestinal stromal tumors have now come to be understood as rare gastrointestinal tract tumors with predictable behavior and outcome, replacing the older terminologies like leiomyoma, schwannoma or leiomyosarcoma. This report present...

  5. The contribution of biological, mathematical, clinical, engineering and social sciences to combatting the West African Ebola epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitty, Christopher J M

    2017-05-26

    The tragic West African Ebola epidemic claimed many lives, but would have been worse still if scientific insights from many disciplines had not been integrated to create a strong technical response. Epidemiology and modelling triggered the international response and guided where response efforts were directed; virology, engineering and clinical science helped reduce deaths and transmission in and from hospitals and treatment centres; social sciences were key to reducing deaths from funerals and in the community; diagnostic and operational research made the response more efficient; immunology and vaccine research contributed to the final stages of the epidemic and will help prevent future epidemics. These varied scientific contributions had to be integrated into a combined narrative, communicated to policymakers to inform decisions, and used by courageous local and international responders in the field in real time. Not every area of science was optimal, and in particular, clinical trials of simple interventions such as fluid management were slow to be adopted and sharing of data was initially poor. This Ebola epidemic demonstrated how science can respond to a major emergency, but also has lessons for better responses in future infectious emergencies.This article is part of the themed issue 'The 2013-2016 West African Ebola epidemic: data, decision-making and disease control'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  6. Obesity and the gastrointestinal tract: you are what you eat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolfe, M Michael; Boylan, Michael O

    2014-01-01

    Obesity represents a complex multifactorial syndrome that develops from interactions among genetic and environmental factors and is a leading cause of illness and death. The prevalence of obesity in the United States has increased dramatically since 1975. Although often ignored, the gastrointestinal tract, and the gastrointestinal regulatory peptides in particular, constitutes an ideal starting point for defining and investigating obesity as it represents the route by which all nutrients are ingested, processed, and absorbed. Another important factor to consider when evaluating the etiology of obesity is the capacity for all animals to store nutrients. Insulin is the most potent anabolic hormone, and it appears to have evolved from the need to maximize energy efficiency, obviating the requirement to continuously forage for food. Organisms expressing this important peptide possessed a distinct survival advantage and flourished. During the course of evolution, insulin biosynthesis translocated from the intestine to pancreatic islets, which necessitated a messenger from the intestine to complete the "enteroinsular axis." The eventual development of glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP) and other incretins fulfilled this requirement. GIP appears to offer an additional survival benefit by not only stimulating intestinal glucose transport and maximally releasing insulin to facilitate nutrient storage but also by its insulin-mimetic properties, including enhanced uptake of glucose by adipocytes. This physiological redundancy offered by insulin and GIP ensured the survival of organisms during times when food was scarce. As food is no longer scarce, at least in the West, this survival advantage appears to have contributed to the current obesity epidemic.

  7. Using data-driven agent-based models for forecasting emerging infectious diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Srinivasan Venkatramanan

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Producing timely, well-informed and reliable forecasts for an ongoing epidemic of an emerging infectious disease is a huge challenge. Epidemiologists and policy makers have to deal with poor data quality, limited understanding of the disease dynamics, rapidly changing social environment and the uncertainty on effects of various interventions in place. Under this setting, detailed computational models provide a comprehensive framework for integrating diverse data sources into a well-defined model of disease dynamics and social behavior, potentially leading to better understanding and actions. In this paper, we describe one such agent-based model framework developed for forecasting the 2014–2015 Ebola epidemic in Liberia, and subsequently used during the Ebola forecasting challenge. We describe the various components of the model, the calibration process and summarize the forecast performance across scenarios of the challenge. We conclude by highlighting how such a data-driven approach can be refined and adapted for future epidemics, and share the lessons learned over the course of the challenge. Keywords: Emerging infectious diseases, Agent-based models, Simulation optimization, Bayesian calibration, Ebola

  8. Gastrointestinal illness linked to incidents in drinking water distribution networks in Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Säve-Söderbergh, Melle; Bylund, John; Malm, Annika; Simonsson, Magnus; Toljander, Jonas

    2017-10-01

    During recent years, knowledge gaps on drinking water-related gastrointestinal illness have been identified, especially for non-epidemic cases. Pathogen contamination of drinking water during distribution has been suggested to contribute to these cases, but the risk factors are not yet fully understood. During 2014-2015, we conducted an epidemiological study in five municipalities in Sweden, to assess whether incidents in the drinking water distribution system influence the risk of gastrointestinal illness. Telephone interviews were conducted in the affected areas and in reference areas 7-14 days after a reported incident. Symptoms of gastrointestinal illness occurring during the period were documented for each household member. The results showed a significantly elevated risk of vomiting and acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI) in the affected areas, compared to the reference areas (OR vom.  = 2.0, 95% CI: 1.2-3.3; OR AGI  = 1.9, 95% CI: 1.2-3.0). Certain conditions, or risk factors, during the incidents, such as sewage and drinking water pipelines at the same level in the trench, were associated with an elevated risk of AGI and vomiting. Safety measures taken during repair work, like flushing, were also associated with an elevated risk of AGI and vomiting. These results show that incidents in the drinking water distribution network contribute to endemic gastrointestinal illness, especially AGI and vomiting, and that external pathogen contamination of the drinking water is a likely cause of these cases of gastrointestinal illness. The results also indicate that safety measures used today may not be sufficient for eliminating the risk of gastrointestinal illness. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  9. Tumor del estroma gastrointestinal Tumor of the gastrointestinal stroma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Felipe Montero León

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Los tumores del estroma gastrointestinal, conocidos según sus siglas en inglés como GIST (gastrointestinal stromal tumors, son tumores mesenquimales que aparecen en cualquier lugar a lo largo del tracto intestinal. Este trabajo tiene el propósito de presentar una paciente de 60 años de edad que asiste a la consulta de ginecología del Instituto Nacional de Oncología y Radiobiología, por presentar dolor en el epigastrio, que se irradia al flanco derecho, con un aumento de volumen en la fosa iliaca derecha, y por ultrasonografía se plantea un tumor de ovario derecho, que se proyecta hacia el epigastrio y a hipocondrio derecho. Se describe la intervención quirúrgica y los hallazgos encontrados en estudios macro y microscópicos, así como en estudios posteriores por inmunohistoquímica de la lesión. Se concluye con un diagnóstico de tumor del estroma gastrointestinal y los resultados de las intervenciones quirúrgicas y medicamentosas realizadas. Se recomienda valorar la importancia de una estrecha relación entre cirujanos generales y ginecólogos frente a enfermedades inesperadas, por su difícil diagnóstico preoperatorio, que conllevan a un tratamiento quirúrgico adecuado, y que por la complejidad que requieren, necesitan de la competencia de ambas especialidades quirúrgicas.The tumors of the gastrointestinal stroma, known in English language as GIST (gastrointestinal stromal tumors are mesenchymal tumors appearing in any place throughout the intestinal tract. The objective of present paper is to present the case of a female patient aged 60 came to Genecology consultation of the National Institute of Oncology and Radiobiology due pain in epigastrium irradiating to right flank with increase of volume in the right iliac fossa and by ultrasonography it is a tumor of right ovarium projecting to epigastrium and the right hypochondrium. The surgical intervention is described as well as the findings noted in macro- and microscopic studies

  10. Malnutrition and Gastrointestinal and Respiratory Infections in Children: A Public Health Problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rocío Ortiz

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Infectious disease is the major cause of morbidity and mortality in developing countries, particularly in children. Increasing evidence suggests that protein-calorie malnutrition is the underlying reason for the increased susceptibility to infections observed in these areas. Moreover, certain infectious diseases also cause malnutrition, which can result in a vicious cycle. Malnutrition and bacterial gastrointestinal and respiratory infections represent a serious public health problem. The increased incidence and severity of infections in malnourished children is largely due to the deterioration of immune function; limited production and/or diminished functional capacity of all cellular components of the immune system have been reported in malnutrition. In this review, we analyze the cyclical relationship between malnutrition, immune response dysfunction, increased susceptibility to infectious disease, and metabolic responses that further alter nutritional status. The consequences of malnutrition are diverse and included: increased susceptibility to infection, impaired child development, increased mortality rate and individuals who come to function in suboptimal ways.

  11. Malnutrition and Gastrointestinal and Respiratory Infections in Children: A Public Health Problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez, Leonor; Cervantes, Elsa; Ortiz, Rocío

    2011-01-01

    Infectious disease is the major cause of morbidity and mortality in developing countries, particularly in children. Increasing evidence suggests that protein-calorie malnutrition is the underlying reason for the increased susceptibility to infections observed in these areas. Moreover, certain infectious diseases also cause malnutrition, which can result in a vicious cycle. Malnutrition and bacterial gastrointestinal and respiratory infections represent a serious public health problem. The increased incidence and severity of infections in malnourished children is largely due to the deterioration of immune function; limited production and/or diminished functional capacity of all cellular components of the immune system have been reported in malnutrition. In this review, we analyze the cyclical relationship between malnutrition, immune response dysfunction, increased susceptibility to infectious disease, and metabolic responses that further alter nutritional status. The consequences of malnutrition are diverse and included: increased susceptibility to infection, impaired child development, increased mortality rate and individuals who come to function in suboptimal ways. PMID:21695035

  12. Concurrency can drive an HIV epidemic by moving R0 across the epidemic threshold

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leung, Ka Yin; Kretzschmar, Mirjam

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to investigate whether concurrency can drive an HIV epidemic by moving R0 across the epidemic threshold. DESIGN AND METHODS: We use a mathematical framework for a dynamic partnership network and the spread of a one-stage infection to study how concurrency is

  13. Exercise and the gastro-intestinal tract

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    on perfonnance and me value of cardiovascular training in improving performance in aerobic sports is well recognised. The role of me gastro-intestinal tracr, bom as a limiting and sustaining facror in aerobic exercises, is less well appreciared. Gastro-intestinal symptoms. The spectrum of gastro-intestinal effecrs of exercise ...

  14. African Journal of Infectious Diseases: Journal Sponsorship

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    African Journal of Infectious Diseases: Journal Sponsorship. Journal Home > About the Journal > African Journal of Infectious Diseases: Journal Sponsorship. Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads.

  15. Producing infectious enterovirus type 71 in a rapid strategy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qin E-De

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Enterovirus 71 (EV71 is an etiologic agent of hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD, and recent HFMD epidemics worldwide have been associated with a severe form of brainstem encephalitis associated with pulmonary edema and high case-fatality rates. EV71 contains a positive-sense single-stranded genome RNA of approximately 7400 bp in length which encodes a polyprotein with a single open reading frame (ORF, which is flanked by untranslated regions at both the 5' and 3' ends. Results A long distance RT-PCR assay was developed to amplify the full length genome cDNA of EV71 by using specific primes carrying a SP6 promoter. Then the in vitro synthesized RNA transcripts from the RT-PCR amplicons were then transfected into RD cells to produce the rescued virus. The rescued virus was further characterized by RT-PCR and indirect fluorescent-antibody (IFA assay in comparison with the wild type virus. The rescued viruses were infectious on RD cells and neurovirulent when intracerebrally injected into suckling mice. Conclusions Thus, we established a rapid method to produce the infectious full length cDNA of EV71 directly from RNA preparations and specific mutations can be easily engineered into the rescued enterovirus genome by this method.

  16. Natural Disasters, Corpses and the Risk of Infectious Diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JM Conly

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The recent occurrence of the category 4 Hurricane Katrina devastated the United States? Gulf Coast. The hurricane caused widespread destruction and flooding, and left hundreds of thousands of people homeless. The mounting death toll was reported at almost 300 deaths as of September 8, 2005 (1,2. The unfolding events and high death toll have left an unusual situation in which there are many decomposing corpses either lying on the streets or floating in the flood waters. The presence of these corpses in open settings, such as in public places and in the water that has inundated much of the city of New Orleans, naturally raises concerns about the occurrence of infectious disease epidemics (3. In the aftermath of large natural disasters, instinctive uncertainties arise among workers and the general population with respect to the appropriate handling and disposal of dead bodies and human remains. Given the recent occurrence of Hurricane Katrina as a large natural disaster and the unprecedented setting of the numerous corpses requiring disposal, it was considered timely to review the infectious disease risks associated with the handling of dead bodies.

  17. Observed and projected drivers of emerging infectious diseases in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semenza, Jan C; Rocklöv, Joacim; Penttinen, Pasi; Lindgren, Elisabet

    2016-10-01

    Emerging infectious diseases are of international concern because of the potential for, and impact of, pandemics; however, they are difficult to predict. To identify the drivers of disease emergence, we analyzed infectious disease threat events (IDTEs) detected through epidemic intelligence collected at the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) between 2008 and 2013, and compared the observed results with a 2008 ECDC foresight study of projected drivers of future IDTEs in Europe. Among 10 categories of IDTEs, foodborne and waterborne IDTEs were the most common, vaccine-preventable IDTEs caused the highest number of cases, and airborne IDTEs caused the most deaths. Observed drivers for each IDTE were sorted into three main groups: globalization and environmental drivers contributed to 61% of all IDTEs, public health system drivers contributed to 21%, and social and demographic drivers to 18%. A multiple logistic regression analysis showed that four of the top five drivers for observed IDTEs were in the globalization and environment group. In the observational study, the globalization and environment group was related to all IDTE categories, but only to five of eight categories in the foresight study. Directly targeting these drivers with public health interventions may diminish the chances of IDTE occurrence from the outset. © 2016 New York Academy of Sciences.

  18. Infectious diseases in Poland in 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadkowska-Todys, Małgorzata; Zieliński, Andrzej; Czarkowski, Mirosław P.

    2017-01-01

    This is the next annual analysis of the situation of infectious and parasitic diseases in Poland in 2015 within the framework of the Epidemiological Chronicle of Przegląd Epidemiologiczny - Epidemiological Review. Its purpose is to identify potential threats to the health of populations from infectious diseases occurring in Poland with reference to other parts of the globe. This paper is an introduction to more detailed studies of the epidemiological situation of selected infectious diseases and summarizes the results of the surveillance of infectious diseases in Poland in 2015. References to epidemiological situation in other countries are limited to situations that may affect current or potential occurrence of the disease in Poland. The main source of epidemiological information for this summary is the data from the reports of the State Sanitary Inspection included in the annual bulletins “Infectious Diseases and Poisonings in Poland in 2015” and “Vaccination in Poland in 2015” (1, 2). The epidemiological situation of particular diseases is further elaborated in the Epidemiological Chronicle of the same issue of the Epidemiological Review. Data on deaths are based on the presentation of the Demographic and Labor Market Department of the Central Statistical Office on deaths from infectious and parasitic diseases registered in Poland in 2015 and earlier. For a long time, the most common diseases among epidemiological surveillance it is upper respiratory tract infections classified as “influenza and suspected influenza”. In 2015, the number of cases was 3,843,438 (9 994,7 / 100,000). As to compare with the 2014’s incidence, this was an increase of 22.6%. In 2015, incidence of intestinal infections with etiology of salmonella increased by 2.8% compared to the previous year, but compared to the median of 2009-2013 was 2.5% lower. A serious epidemiological problem is a strong upward trend in nosocomial infections including infections caused by

  19. Bayesian inference in an extended SEIR model with nonparametric disease transmission rate: an application to the Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frasso, Gianluca; Lambert, Philippe

    2016-10-01

    SummaryThe 2014 Ebola outbreak in Sierra Leone is analyzed using a susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) epidemic compartmental model. The discrete time-stochastic model for the epidemic evolution is coupled to a set of ordinary differential equations describing the dynamics of the expected proportions of subjects in each epidemic state. The unknown parameters are estimated in a Bayesian framework by combining data on the number of new (laboratory confirmed) Ebola cases reported by the Ministry of Health and prior distributions for the transition rates elicited using information collected by the WHO during the follow-up of specific Ebola cases. The time-varying disease transmission rate is modeled in a flexible way using penalized B-splines. Our framework represents a valuable stochastic tool for the study of an epidemic dynamic even when only irregularly observed and possibly aggregated data are available. Simulations and the analysis of the 2014 Sierra Leone Ebola data highlight the merits of the proposed methodology. In particular, the flexible modeling of the disease transmission rate makes the estimation of the effective reproduction number robust to the misspecification of the initial epidemic states and to underreporting of the infectious cases. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  20. Advances in Integrative Nanomedicine for Improving Infectious Disease Treatment in Public Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Iris R; Schwartz, Gary E; Boyer, Nancy N; Koithan, Mary; Brooks, Audrey J

    2013-04-01

    Infectious diseases present public health challenges worldwide. An emerging integrative approach to treating infectious diseases is using nanoparticle (NP) forms of traditional and alternative medicines. Advantages of nanomedicine delivery methods include better disease targeting, especially for intracellular pathogens, ability to cross membranes and enter cells, longer duration drug action, reduced side effects, and cost savings from lower doses. We searched Pubmed articles in English with keywords related to nanoparticles and nanomedicine. Nanotechnology terms were also combined with keywords for drug delivery, infectious diseases, herbs, antioxidants, homeopathy, and adaptation. NPs are very small forms of material substances, measuring 1-100 nanometers along at least one dimension. Compared with bulk forms, NPs' large ratio of surface-area-to-volume confers increased reactivity and adsorptive capacity, with unique electromagnetic, chemical, biological, and quantum properties. Nanotechnology uses natural botanical agents for green manufacturing of less toxic NPs. Nanoparticle herbs and nutriceuticals can treat infections via improved bioavailability and antiinflammatory, antioxidant, and immunomodulatory effects. Recent studies demonstrate that homeopathic medicines may contain source and/or silica nanoparticles because of their traditional manufacturing processes. Homeopathy, as a form of nanomedicine, has a promising history of treating epidemic infectious diseases, including malaria, leptospirosis and HIV/AIDS, in addition to acute upper respiratory infections. Adaptive changes in the host's complex networks underlie effects. Nanomedicine is integrative, blending modern technology with natural products to reduce toxicity and support immune function. Nanomedicine using traditional agents from alternative systems of medicine can facilitate progress in integrative public health approaches to infectious diseases.

  1. Strengthening epidemiologic investigation of infectious diseases in Korea: lessons from the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome outbreak

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    Changhwan Lee

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The recent outbreak of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS coronavirus infection in Korea resulted in large socioeconomic losses. This provoked the Korean government and the general public to recognize the importance of having a well-established system against infectious diseases. Although epidemiologic investigation is one of the most important aspects of prevention, it has been pointed out that much needs to be improved in Korea. We review here the current status of the Korean epidemiologic service and suggest possible supplementation measures. We examine the current national preventive infrastructure, including human resources such as Epidemic Intelligence Service officers, its governmental management, and related policies. In addition, we describe the practical application of these resources to the recent MERS outbreak and the progress in preventive measures. The spread of MERS demonstrated that the general readiness for emerging infectious diseases in Korea is considerably low. We believe that it is essential to increase society’s investment in disease prevention. Fostering public health personnel, legislating management policies, and establishing research centers for emerging infectious diseases are potential solutions. Evaluating international preventive systems, developing cooperative measures, and initiating improvements are necessary. We evaluated the Korean epidemiologic investigation system and the public preventive measures against infectious diseases in light of the recent MERS outbreak. We suggest that governmental authorities in Korea enforce preventive policies, foster the development of highly qualified personnel, and increase investment in the public health domain of infectious disease prevention.

  2. HIV epidemics in Shenzhen and Chongqing, China.

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    Shu Yang

    Full Text Available Men who have sex with men (MSM and heterosexuals are the populations with the fastest growing HIV infection rates in China. We characterize the epidemic growth and age patterns between these two routes from 2004 to 2015 in Chongqing and Shenzhen, China.Data were downloaded from the National HIV/ AIDS Comprehensive Response Information Management System. For the new HIV diagnoses of heterosexuals and MSM in both cities, we estimated the growth rates by fitting different sub-exponential models. Heat maps are used to show their age patterns. We used histograms to compare these patterns by birth cohort.The MSM epidemics grew significantly in both cities. Chongqing experienced quadratic growth in HIV reported cases with an estimated growth rate of 0.086 per week and a "deceleration rate" of 0.673. HIV reported cases of MSM in Shenzhen grew even more drastically with a growth rate of 0.033 per week and "deceleration rate" of 0.794. The new infections are mainly affecting the ages of 18 to 30 in Chongqing and ages of 20 to 35 in Shenzhen. They peaked in early 1990's and mid-1990's birth cohorts in Chongqing and Shenzhen respectively. The HIV epidemic among heterosexuals grew rapidly in both cities. The growth rates were estimated as 0.02 and 0.028 in Chongqing and Shenzhen respectively whereas the "deceleration rates" were 0.878 and 0.790 in these two places. It affected mostly aged 18 to 75 in males and 18 to 65 in females in Chongqing and aged 18 to 45 in males and 18 to 50 in females in Shenzhen in 2015. In Chongqing, the heterosexual female epidemics display two peaks in HIV diagnoses in the birth cohorts of early 1950's and early 1980's, with heterosexual male epidemics peaked in early 1940's and early 1960's. The heterosexual male and female epidemics display higher rates in the birth cohort 1940-1960, than the birth cohort 1960-1990. It peaked in birth cohorts of 1950's and 1980's in Shenzhen.We revealed striking differences in epidemic growth

  3. Ten Putative Contributors to the Obesity Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAllister, Emily J.; Dhurandhar, Nikhil V.; Keith, Scott W.; Aronne, Louis J.; Barger, Jamie; Baskin, Monica; Benca, Ruth M.; Biggio, Joseph; Boggiano, Mary M.; Eisenmann, Joe C.; Elobeid, Mai; Fontaine, Kevin R.; Gluckman, Peter; Hanlon, Erin C.; Katzmarzyk, Peter; Pietrobelli, Angelo; Redden, David T.; Ruden, Douglas M.; Wang, Chenxi; Waterland, Robert A.; Wright, Suzanne M.; Allison, David B.

    2010-01-01

    The obesity epidemic is a global issue and shows no signs of abating, while the cause of this epidemic remains unclear. Marketing practices of energy-dense foods and institutionally-driven declines in physical activity are the alleged perpetrators for the epidemic, despite a lack of solid evidence to demonstrate their causal role. While both may contribute to obesity, we call attention to their unquestioned dominance in program funding and public efforts to reduce obesity, and propose several alternative putative contributors that would benefit from equal consideration and attention. Evidence for microorganisms, epigenetics, increasing maternal age, greater fecundity among people with higher adiposity, assortative mating, sleep debt, endocrine disruptors, pharmaceutical iatrogenesis, reduction in variability of ambient temperatures, and intrauterine and intergenerational effects, as contributing factors to the obesity epidemic are reviewed herein. While the evidence is strong for some contributors such as pharmaceutical-induced weight gain, it is still emerging for other reviewed factors. Considering the role of such putative etiological factors of obesity may lead to comprehensive, cause specific, and effective strategies for prevention and treatment of this global epidemic. PMID:19960394

  4. A Meta-Analysis of the Association between Gender and Protective Behaviors in Response to Respiratory Epidemics and Pandemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moran, Kelly R; Del Valle, Sara Y

    2016-01-01

    Respiratory infectious disease epidemics and pandemics are recurring events that levy a high cost on individuals and society. The health-protective behavioral response of the public plays an important role in limiting respiratory infectious disease spread. Health-protective behaviors take several forms. Behaviors can be categorized as pharmaceutical (e.g., vaccination uptake, antiviral use) or non-pharmaceutical (e.g., hand washing, face mask use, avoidance of public transport). Due to the limitations of pharmaceutical interventions during respiratory epidemics and pandemics, public health campaigns aimed at limiting disease spread often emphasize both non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical behavioral interventions. Understanding the determinants of the public's behavioral response is crucial for devising public health campaigns, providing information to parametrize mathematical models, and ultimately limiting disease spread. While other reviews have qualitatively analyzed the body of work on demographic determinants of health-protective behavior, this meta-analysis quantitatively combines the results from 85 publications to determine the global relationship between gender and health-protective behavioral response. The results show that women in the general population are about 50% more likely than men to adopt/practice non-pharmaceutical behaviors. Conversely, men in the general population are marginally (about 12%) more likely than women to adopt/practice pharmaceutical behaviors. It is possible that factors other than pharmaceutical/non-pharmaceutical status not included in this analysis act as moderators of this relationship. These results suggest an inherent difference in how men and women respond to epidemic and pandemic respiratory infectious diseases. This information can be used to target specific groups when developing non-pharmaceutical public health campaigns and to parameterize epidemic models incorporating demographic information.

  5. A Meta-Analysis of the Association between Gender and Protective Behaviors in Response to Respiratory Epidemics and Pandemics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelly R Moran

    Full Text Available Respiratory infectious disease epidemics and pandemics are recurring events that levy a high cost on individuals and society. The health-protective behavioral response of the public plays an important role in limiting respiratory infectious disease spread. Health-protective behaviors take several forms. Behaviors can be categorized as pharmaceutical (e.g., vaccination uptake, antiviral use or non-pharmaceutical (e.g., hand washing, face mask use, avoidance of public transport. Due to the limitations of pharmaceutical interventions during respiratory epidemics and pandemics, public health campaigns aimed at limiting disease spread often emphasize both non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical behavioral interventions. Understanding the determinants of the public's behavioral response is crucial for devising public health campaigns, providing information to parametrize mathematical models, and ultimately limiting disease spread. While other reviews have qualitatively analyzed the body of work on demographic determinants of health-protective behavior, this meta-analysis quantitatively combines the results from 85 publications to determine the global relationship between gender and health-protective behavioral response. The results show that women in the general population are about 50% more likely than men to adopt/practice non-pharmaceutical behaviors. Conversely, men in the general population are marginally (about 12% more likely than women to adopt/practice pharmaceutical behaviors. It is possible that factors other than pharmaceutical/non-pharmaceutical status not included in this analysis act as moderators of this relationship. These results suggest an inherent difference in how men and women respond to epidemic and pandemic respiratory infectious diseases. This information can be used to target specific groups when developing non-pharmaceutical public health campaigns and to parameterize epidemic models incorporating demographic information.

  6. Role of Iranian Traditional Medicine in the Prevention of Respiratory Infectious Diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soroushzadeh, Sayed Mohammad Ali; Khiveh, Ali; Gerayelimalek, Valiollah

    2016-05-01

    In order to define appropriate plans for respiratory infectious diseases, in accordance with Iranian traditional medicine, one should cover the topic of "havae vabai". "Havae vabai" is related to the epidemics of respiratory infectious diseases. This study is a review of the role of Iranian traditional medicine in the prevention of respiratory infectious diseases .Resources of traditional medicine with the keyword "havae vabai" were reviewed in Noor digital library. The perspective of traditional medicine for the prevention of disease in "havae vabai" is based on self-recuperation and air modification. Items that are mentioned are; refine the surrounding air, move to a proper space, live in a house with no source of water like fountains and limited flow of air, air-drying, use air freshener, smell fruit sticks, use in-house plants, and place a cloth soaked with vinegar in front of the nose. For self-recuperation, reducing body moisture with proper foods and drugs or with vomiting, diarrhea, phlebotomy, wet-cupping, reduction in food and drink intake, avoiding sexual intercourse, bathing, heavy exercise, inactivity, overeating, hunger, thirst, milk, sweets, fish, fatty foods, fruits especially juicy fruits are recommended. The food that tends to have a sour taste, eating meat cooked with sour taste like vinegar is suggested. The use of the solutions offered in traditional medicine to control air is helpful as it can reduce epidemics, such as influenza; that yearly kills many patients with a heavy financial burden.

  7. Spatial spreading of infectious disease via local and national mobility networks in South Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwon, Okyu; Son, Woo-Sik

    2017-12-01

    We study the spread of infectious disease based on local- and national-scale mobility networks. We construct a local mobility network using data on urban bus services to estimate local-scale movement of people. We also construct a national mobility network from orientation-destination data of vehicular traffic between highway tollgates to evaluate national-scale movement of people. A metapopulation model is used to simulate the spread of epidemics. Thus, the number of infected people is simulated using a susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model within the administrative division, and inter-division spread of infected people is determined through local and national mobility networks. In this paper, we consider two scenarios for epidemic spread. In the first, the infectious disease only spreads through local-scale movement of people, that is, the local mobility network. In the second, it spreads via both local and national mobility networks. For the former, the simulation results show infected people sequentially spread to neighboring divisions. Yet for the latter, we observe a faster spreading pattern to distant divisions. Thus, we confirm the national mobility network enhances synchronization among the incidence profiles of all administrative divisions.

  8. The Use of Probiotics in Gastrointestinal Disease

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    Karen L Madsen

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available Probiotics are living microorganisms that can affect the host in a beneficial manner. Prebiotics are nondigestible food ingredients that stimulate the growth and activity of probiotic bacteria already established in the colon. Efficacy of probiotic compounds has been shown in a wide range of gastrointestinal diseases. Lactobacillus GG alone, or the combination of Bifidobacterium bifidum and Streptococcus thermophilus, is effective in the treatment of Clostridium difficile, as well as in preventing the frequency and severity of infectious acute diarrhea in children. Prevention of antibiotic-induced diarrhea with the concomitant administration of either Lactobacillus GG or Saccharomyces boulardii has been demonstrated. The most successful studies involve the use of Lactobacillus GG at a dose of 1×1010 viable organisms per day and the yeast boulardii at a dose of 1 g/day. A probiotic preparation (VSL#3 - 6 g/day that uses a combination of three species of Bifidobacterium, four strains of Lactobacillus and one strain of Streptocccus has shown promise in maintaining remission in ulcerative colitis and pouchitis, as well as in preventing the postoperative recurrence of Crohn's disease. The mechanism of action of probiotics may include receptor competition, effects on mucin secretion or probiotic immunomodulation of gut-associated lymphoid tissue. Oral administration of probiotic compounds has been demonstrated to be well tolerated and safe. However, while probiotics have the potential to improve human health and to prevent and treat some diseases, major improvements are needed in labelling and quality assurance procedures for probiotic compounds. In addition, well planned and controlled clinical studies are necessary to delineate fully the potential for probiotic compounds.

  9. Chemoprophylaxis of Tropical Infectious Diseases

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    William J. H. McBride

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Travelers to tropical countries are at risk for a variety of infectious diseases. In some cases effective vaccinations are available, but for other infections chemoprophylaxis can be offered. Malaria prevention has become increasingly complex as Plasmodium species become resistant to available drugs. In certain high risk settings, antibiotics can be used to prevent leptospirosis, scrub typhus and other infections. Post-exposure prophylaxis is appropriate for selected virulent infections. In this article the evidence for chemoprophylaxis will be reviewed.

  10. Emerging Infectious Diseases in Pregnancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beigi, Richard H

    2017-05-01

    It has been recognized for centuries that pregnant women have unique susceptibilities to many infectious diseases that predispose them to untoward outcomes compared with the general adult population. It is thought a combination of adaptive alterations in immunity to allow for the fetal allograft combined with changes in anatomy and physiology accompanying pregnancy underlie these susceptibilities. Emerging infectious diseases are defined as those whose incidence in humans has increased in the past two decades or threaten to increase in the near future. The past decade alone has witnessed many such outbreaks, each with its own unique implications for pregnant women and their unborn fetuses as well as lessons for the health care community regarding response and mitigation. Examples of such outbreaks include, but are not limited to, severe acute respiratory syndrome, the 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza, Ebola virus, and, most recently, the Zika virus. Although each emerging pathogen has unique features requiring specific considerations, there are many underlying principles that are shared in the recognition, communication, and mitigation of such infectious outbreaks. Some of these key principles include disease-specific delineation of transmission dynamics, understanding of pathogen-specific effects on both mothers and fetuses, and advance planning and contemporaneous management that prioritize communication among public health experts, clinicians, and patients. The productive and effective working collaboration among the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists, and the Society for Maternal-Fetal Medicine has been a key partnership in the successful communication and management of such outbreaks for women's health care providers and patients alike. Going forward, the knowledge gained over the past decade will undoubtedly continue to inform future responses and will serve to optimize the education and care given

  11. Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumors: A Case Report

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    Palankezhe Sashidharan

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Advances in the identification of gastrointestinal stromal tumors, its molecular and immunohiostochemical basis, and its management have been a watershed in the treatment of gastrointestinal tumors. This paradigm shift occurred over the last two decades and gastrointestinal stromal tumors have now come to be understood as rare gastrointestinal tract tumors with predictable behavior and outcome, replacing the older terminologies like leiomyoma, schwannoma or leiomyosarcoma. This report presents a case of gastric gastrointestinal stromal tumor operated recently in a 47-year-old female patient and the outcome, as well as literature review of the pathological identification, sites of origin, and factors predicting its behavior, prognosis and treatment.

  12. Acute tonsillitis at infectious patients

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    Y. P. Finogeev

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We examined 1824 patients with diphtheria treated in Clinical Infectious Diseases Hospital Botkin (St. Petersburg in 1993 – 1994, and more than 500 patients referred to the clinic with a diagnosis of «angina». Based on published data and our own research observations investigated the etiology of acute tonsillitis. Bacterial tonsillitis should be treated with antibiotics, and this is important aetiological interpretation of these diseases. Streptococcal tonsillitis should always be a sore throat syndrome as a diagnostic sign of support. For other forms of lymphoma lesion of the tonsils should not be defined as «angina», and called «tonsillitis». Аngina as β-hemolytic streptococcus group A infection is recognized as the leader in the development of rheumatic fever. On the basis of a large clinical material briefly analyzed the clinical manifestations of various forms of diphtheria with membranous tonsillitis. Also presented with a syndrome of infectious diseases as tonsillitis, therapeutic and surgical «mask» of infectious diseases.

  13. Worm epidemics in wireless ad hoc networks

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    Nekovee, Maziar [BT Research, Polaris 134, Adastral Park, Martlesham, Suffolk IP5 3RE (United Kingdom); Centre for Computational Science, University College London, 20 Gordon Street, London WC1H 0AJ (United Kingdom)

    2007-06-15

    A dramatic increase in the number of computing devices with wireless communication capability has resulted in the emergence of a new class of computer worms which specifically target such devices. The most striking feature of these worms is that they do not require Internet connectivity for their propagation but can spread directly from device to device using a short-range radio communication technology, such as WiFi or Bluetooth. In this paper, we develop a new model for epidemic spreading of these worms and investigate their spreading in wireless ad hoc networks via extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our studies show that the threshold behaviour and dynamics of worm epidemics in these networks are greatly affected by a combination of spatial and temporal correlations which characterize these networks, and are significantly different from the previously studied epidemics in the Internet.

  14. Worm epidemics in wireless ad hoc networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nekovee, Maziar

    2007-06-01

    A dramatic increase in the number of computing devices with wireless communication capability has resulted in the emergence of a new class of computer worms which specifically target such devices. The most striking feature of these worms is that they do not require Internet connectivity for their propagation but can spread directly from device to device using a short-range radio communication technology, such as WiFi or Bluetooth. In this paper, we develop a new model for epidemic spreading of these worms and investigate their spreading in wireless ad hoc networks via extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our studies show that the threshold behaviour and dynamics of worm epidemics in these networks are greatly affected by a combination of spatial and temporal correlations which characterize these networks, and are significantly different from the previously studied epidemics in the Internet.

  15. GENERAL: Epidemic spreading on networks with vaccination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Hong-Jing; Duan, Zhi-Sheng; Chen, Guan-Rong; Li, Rong

    2009-08-01

    In this paper, a new susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model on complex networks with imperfect vaccination is proposed. Two types of epidemic spreading patterns (the recovered individuals have or have not immunity) on scale-free networks are discussed. Both theoretical and numerical analyses are presented. The epidemic thresholds related to the vaccination rate, the vaccination-invalid rate and the vaccination success rate on scale-free networks are demonstrated, showing different results from the reported observations. This reveals that whether or not the epidemic can spread over a network under vaccination control is determined not only by the network structure but also by the medicine's effective duration. Moreover, for a given infective rate, the proportion of individuals to vaccinate can be calculated theoretically for the case that the recovered nodes have immunity. Finally, simulated results are presented to show how to control the disease prevalence.

  16. Different Epidemic Models on Complex Networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Haifeng; Small, Michael; Fu Xinchu

    2009-01-01

    Models for diseases spreading are not just limited to SIS or SIR. For instance, for the spreading of AIDS/HIV, the susceptible individuals can be classified into different cases according to their immunity, and similarly, the infected individuals can be sorted into different classes according to their infectivity. Moreover, some diseases may develop through several stages. Many authors have shown that the individuals' relation can be viewed as a complex network. So in this paper, in order to better explain the dynamical behavior of epidemics, we consider different epidemic models on complex networks, and obtain the epidemic threshold for each case. Finally, we present numerical simulations for each case to verify our results.

  17. Worm epidemics in wireless ad hoc networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nekovee, Maziar

    2007-01-01

    A dramatic increase in the number of computing devices with wireless communication capability has resulted in the emergence of a new class of computer worms which specifically target such devices. The most striking feature of these worms is that they do not require Internet connectivity for their propagation but can spread directly from device to device using a short-range radio communication technology, such as WiFi or Bluetooth. In this paper, we develop a new model for epidemic spreading of these worms and investigate their spreading in wireless ad hoc networks via extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our studies show that the threshold behaviour and dynamics of worm epidemics in these networks are greatly affected by a combination of spatial and temporal correlations which characterize these networks, and are significantly different from the previously studied epidemics in the Internet

  18. An epidemic model of rumor diffusion in online social networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Jun-Jun; Liu, Yun; Shen, Bo; Yuan, Wei-Guo

    2013-01-01

    So far, in some standard rumor spreading models, the transition probability from ignorants to spreaders is always treated as a constant. However, from a practical perspective, the case that individual whether or not be infected by the neighbor spreader greatly depends on the trustiness of ties between them. In order to solve this problem, we introduce a stochastic epidemic model of the rumor diffusion, in which the infectious probability is defined as a function of the strength of ties. Moreover, we investigate numerically the behavior of the model on a real scale-free social site with the exponent γ = 2.2. We verify that the strength of ties plays a critical role in the rumor diffusion process. Specially, selecting weak ties preferentially cannot make rumor spread faster and wider, but the efficiency of diffusion will be greatly affected after removing them. Another significant finding is that the maximum number of spreaders max( S) is very sensitive to the immune probability μ and the decay probability v. We show that a smaller μ or v leads to a larger spreading of the rumor, and their relationships can be described as the function ln(max( S)) = Av + B, in which the intercept B and the slope A can be fitted perfectly as power-law functions of μ. Our findings may offer some useful insights, helping guide the application in practice and reduce the damage brought by the rumor.

  19. An epidemic process mediated by a decaying diffusing signal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faria, Fernando P; Dickman, Ronald

    2012-01-01

    We study a stochastic epidemic model consisting of elements (organisms in a community or cells in tissue) with fixed positions, in which damage or disease is transmitted by diffusing agents ('signals') emitted by infected individuals. The signals decay as well as diffuse; since they are assumed to be produced in large numbers, the signal concentration is treated deterministically. The model, which includes four cellular states (susceptible, transformed, depleted, and removed), admits various interpretations: spread of an infection or infectious disease, or of damage in a tissue in which injured cells may themselves provoke further damage, and as a description of the so-called radiation-induced bystander effect, in which the signals are molecules capable of inducing cell damage and/or death in unirradiated cells. The model exhibits a continuous phase transition between spreading and nonspreading phases. We formulate two mean-field theory (MFT) descriptions of the model, one of which ignores correlations between the cellular state and the signal concentration, and another that treats such correlations in an approximate manner. Monte Carlo simulations of the spread of infection on the square lattice yield values for the critical exponents and the fractal dimension consistent with the dynamic percolation universality class

  20. Time evolution of predictability of epidemics on networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holme, Petter; Takaguchi, Taro

    2015-04-01

    Epidemic outbreaks of new pathogens, or known pathogens in new populations, cause a great deal of fear because they are hard to predict. For theoretical models of disease spreading, on the other hand, quantities characterizing the outbreak converge to deterministic functions of time. Our goal in this paper is to shed some light on this apparent discrepancy. We measure the diversity of (and, thus, the predictability of) outbreak sizes and extinction times as functions of time given different scenarios of the amount of information available. Under the assumption of perfect information—i.e., knowing the state of each individual with respect to the disease—the predictability decreases exponentially, or faster, with time. The decay is slowest for intermediate values of the per-contact transmission probability. With a weaker assumption on the information available, assuming that we know only the fraction of currently infectious, recovered, or susceptible individuals, the predictability also decreases exponentially most of the time. There are, however, some peculiar regions in this scenario where the predictability decreases. In other words, to predict its final size with a given accuracy, we would need increasingly more information about the outbreak.

  1. Mutually cooperative epidemics on power-law networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Peng-Bi; Colaiori, Francesca; Castellano, Claudio

    2017-08-01

    The spread of an infectious disease can, in some cases, promote the propagation of other pathogens favoring violent outbreaks, which cause a discontinuous transition to an endemic state. The topology of the contact network plays a crucial role in these cooperative dynamics. We consider a susceptible-infected-removed-type model with two mutually cooperative pathogens: An individual already infected with one disease has an increased probability of getting infected by the other. We present a heterogeneous mean-field theoretical approach to the coinfection dynamics on generic uncorrelated power-law degree-distributed networks and validate its results by means of numerical simulations. We show that, when the second moment of the degree distribution is finite, the epidemic transition is continuous for low cooperativity, while it is discontinuous when cooperativity is sufficiently high. For scale-free networks, i.e., topologies with diverging second moment, the transition is instead always continuous. In this way we clarify the effect of heterogeneity and system size on the nature of the transition, and we validate the physical interpretation about the origin of the discontinuity.

  2. Discrete-time moment closure models for epidemic spreading in populations of interacting individuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frasca, Mattia; Sharkey, Kieran J

    2016-06-21

    Understanding the dynamics of spread of infectious diseases between individuals is essential for forecasting the evolution of an epidemic outbreak or for defining intervention policies. The problem is addressed by many approaches including stochastic and deterministic models formulated at diverse scales (individuals, populations) and different levels of detail. Here we consider discrete-time SIR (susceptible-infectious-removed) dynamics propagated on contact networks. We derive a novel set of 'discrete-time moment equations' for the probability of the system states at the level of individual nodes and pairs of nodes. These equations form a set which we close by introducing appropriate approximations of the joint probabilities appearing in them. For the example case of SIR processes, we formulate two types of model, one assuming statistical independence at the level of individuals and one at the level of pairs. From the pair-based model we then derive a model at the level of the population which captures the behavior of epidemics on homogeneous random networks. With respect to their continuous-time counterparts, the models include a larger number of possible transitions from one state to another and joint probabilities with a larger number of individuals. The approach is validated through numerical simulation over different network topologies. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  3. Radiopharmaceuticals and the gastrointestinal tract

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frier, M. [Radiopharmacy Unit, Dept. of Medical Physics, Queens Medical Centre, Univ. Hospital Nottingham (United Kingdom); Perkins, A.C. [Radiopharmacy Unit, Dept. of Medical Physics, Queens Medical Centre, Univ. Hospital Nottingham (United Kingdom)

    1994-11-01

    A review is presented of the design of radiolabelled test meals for the evaluation of gastrointestinal function, including oesophageal transit, gastro-oesophageal reflux, gastric emptying, enterogastric reflux and transit through the whole bowel. Descriptions of different systems are presented, together with validations of the procedures used. Published methods for assessment of oesophageal transit show a marked degree of consistency, whereas gastric emptying studies employ a wide range of both liquid and solid test meals. Recommendations are made concerning the optimal system for investigation of each part of the gastrointestinal tract, but whichever system is adopted, it is important to employ some validation procedures, and to establish normal ranges in the population under study. (orig.)

  4. Gastrointestinal hormones and their targets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rehfeld, Jens F.

    2014-01-01

    Gastrointestinal hormones are peptides released from endocrine cells and neurons in the digestive tract. More than 30 hormone genes are currently known to be expressed in the gastrointestinal tract, which makes the gut the largest hormone producing organ in the body. Modern biology makes...... it feasible to conceive the hormones under five headings: The structural homology groups a majority of the hormones into nine families, each of which is assumed to originate from one ancestral gene. The individual hormone gene often has multiple phenotypes due to alternative splicing, tandem organization......, or differentiated maturation of the prohormone. By a combination of these mechanisms, more than 100 different hormonally active peptides are released from the gut. Gut hormone genes are also widely expressed in cells outside the gut, some only in extraintestinal endocrine cells and neurons but others also in other...

  5. Effects of the infectious period distribution on predicted transitions in childhood disease dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krylova, Olga; Earn, David J D

    2013-07-06

    The population dynamics of infectious diseases occasionally undergo rapid qualitative changes, such as transitions from annual to biennial cycles or to irregular dynamics. Previous work, based on the standard seasonally forced 'susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed' (SEIR) model has found that transitions in the dynamics of many childhood diseases result from bifurcations induced by slow changes in birth and vaccination rates. However, the standard SEIR formulation assumes that the stage durations (latent and infectious periods) are exponentially distributed, whereas real distributions are narrower and centred around the mean. Much recent work has indicated that realistically distributed stage durations strongly affect the dynamical structure of seasonally forced epidemic models. We investigate whether inferences drawn from previous analyses of transitions in patterns of measles dynamics are robust to the shapes of the stage duration distributions. As an illustrative example, we analyse measles dynamics in New York City from 1928 to 1972. We find that with a fixed mean infectious period in the susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model, the dynamical structure and predicted transitions vary substantially as a function of the shape of the infectious period distribution. By contrast, with fixed mean latent and infectious periods in the SEIR model, the shapes of the stage duration distributions have a less dramatic effect on model dynamical structure and predicted transitions. All these results can be understood more easily by considering the distribution of the disease generation time as opposed to the distributions of individual disease stages. Numerical bifurcation analysis reveals that for a given mean generation time the dynamics of the SIR and SEIR models for measles are nearly equivalent and are insensitive to the shapes of the disease stage distributions.

  6. EpiModel: An R Package for Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Disease over Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenness, Samuel M; Goodreau, Steven M; Morris, Martina

    2018-04-01

    Package EpiModel provides tools for building, simulating, and analyzing mathematical models for the population dynamics of infectious disease transmission in R. Several classes of models are included, but the unique contribution of this software package is a general stochastic framework for modeling the spread of epidemics on networks. EpiModel integrates recent advances in statistical methods for network analysis (temporal exponential random graph models) that allow the epidemic modeling to be grounded in empirical data on contacts that can spread infection. This article provides an overview of both the modeling tools built into EpiModel , designed to facilitate learning for students new to modeling, and the application programming interface for extending package EpiModel , designed to facilitate the exploration of novel research questions for advanced modelers.

  7. Precision Medicine in Gastrointestinal Pathology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, David H; Park, Jason Y

    2016-05-01

    -Precision medicine is the promise of individualized therapy and management of patients based on their personal biology. There are now multiple global initiatives to perform whole-genome sequencing on millions of individuals. In the United States, an early program was the Million Veteran Program, and a more recent proposal in 2015 by the president of the United States is the Precision Medicine Initiative. To implement precision medicine in routine oncology care, genetic variants present in tumors need to be matched with effective clinical therapeutics. When we focus on the current state of precision medicine for gastrointestinal malignancies, it becomes apparent that there is a mixed history of success and failure. -To present the current state of precision medicine using gastrointestinal oncology as a model. We will present currently available targeted therapeutics, promising new findings in clinical genomic oncology, remaining quality issues in genomic testing, and emerging oncology clinical trial designs. -Review of the literature including clinical genomic studies on gastrointestinal malignancies, clinical oncology trials on therapeutics targeted to molecular alterations, and emerging clinical oncology study designs. -Translating our ability to sequence thousands of genes into meaningful improvements in patient survival will be the challenge for the next decade.

  8. The physiological challenges of the 1952 Copenhagen poliomyelitis epidemic and a renaissance in clinical respiratory physiology

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, John B.

    2005-01-01

    The 1952 Copenhagen poliomyelitis epidemic provided extraordinary challenges in applied physiology. Over 300 patients developed respiratory paralysis within a few weeks, and the ventilator facilities at the infectious disease hospital were completely overwhelmed. The heroic solution was to call upon 200 medical students to provide round-the-clock manual ventilation using a rubber bag attached to a tracheostomy tube. Some patients were ventilated in this way for several weeks. A second challenge was to understand the gas exchange and acid-base status of these patients. At the onset of the epidemic, the only measurement routinely available in the hospital was the carbon dioxide concentration in the blood, and the high values were initially misinterpreted as a mysterious “alkalosis.” However, pH measurements were quickly instituted, the PCO2 was shown to be high, and modern clinical respiratory acid-base physiology was born. Taking a broader view, the problems highlighted by the epidemic underscored the gap between recent advances made by physiologists and their application to the clinical environment. However, the 1950s ushered in a renaissance in clinical respiratory physiology. In 1950 the coverage of respiratory physiology in textbooks was often woefully inadequate, but the decade saw major advances in topics such as mechanics and gas exchange. An important development was the translation of the new knowledge from departments of physiology to the clinical setting. In many respects, this period was therefore the beginning of modern clinical respiratory physiology. PMID:16020437

  9. Mathematical modeling, analysis and Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation of Ebola epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tulu, Thomas Wetere; Tian, Boping; Wu, Zunyou

    Ebola virus infection is a severe infectious disease with the highest case fatality rate which become the global public health treat now. What makes the disease the worst of all is no specific effective treatment available, its dynamics is not much researched and understood. In this article a new mathematical model incorporating both vaccination and quarantine to study the dynamics of Ebola epidemic has been developed and comprehensively analyzed. The existence as well as uniqueness of the solution to the model is also verified and the basic reproduction number is calculated. Besides, stability conditions are also checked and finally simulation is done using both Euler method and one of the top ten most influential algorithm known as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. Different rates of vaccination to predict the effect of vaccination on the infected individual over time and that of quarantine are discussed. The results show that quarantine and vaccination are very effective ways to control Ebola epidemic. From our study it was also seen that there is less possibility of an individual for getting Ebola virus for the second time if they survived his/her first infection. Last but not least real data has been fitted to the model, showing that it can used to predict the dynamic of Ebola epidemic.

  10. Agent-based financial dynamics model from stochastic interacting epidemic system and complexity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu, Yunfan; Wang, Jun; Niu, Hongli

    2015-01-01

    An agent-based financial stock price model is developed and investigated by a stochastic interacting epidemic system, which is one of the statistical physics systems and has been used to model the spread of an epidemic or a forest fire. Numerical and statistical analysis are performed on the simulated returns of the proposed financial model. Complexity properties of the financial time series are explored by calculating the correlation dimension and using the modified multiscale entropy method. In order to verify the rationality of the financial model, the real stock market indexes, Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index, are studied in comparison with the simulation data of the proposed model for the different infectiousness parameters. The empirical research reveals that this financial model can reproduce some important features of the real stock markets. - Highlights: • A new agent-based financial price model is developed by stochastic interacting epidemic system. • The structure of the proposed model allows to simulate the financial dynamics. • Correlation dimension and MMSE are applied to complexity analysis of financial time series. • Empirical results show the rationality of the proposed financial model

  11. FluTE, a publicly available stochastic influenza epidemic simulation model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dennis L Chao

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Mathematical and computer models of epidemics have contributed to our understanding of the spread of infectious disease and the measures needed to contain or mitigate them. To help prepare for future influenza seasonal epidemics or pandemics, we developed a new stochastic model of the spread of influenza across a large population. Individuals in this model have realistic social contact networks, and transmission and infections are based on the current state of knowledge of the natural history of influenza. The model has been calibrated so that outcomes are consistent with the 1957/1958 Asian A(H2N2 and 2009 pandemic A(H1N1 influenza viruses. We present examples of how this model can be used to study the dynamics of influenza epidemics in the United States and simulate how to mitigate or delay them using pharmaceutical interventions and social distancing measures. Computer simulation models play an essential role in informing public policy and evaluating pandemic preparedness plans. We have made the source code of this model publicly available to encourage its use and further development.

  12. From epidemics to information propagation: Striking differences in structurally similar adaptive network models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trajanovski, Stojan; Guo, Dongchao; Van Mieghem, Piet

    2015-09-01

    The continuous-time adaptive susceptible-infected-susceptible (ASIS) epidemic model and the adaptive information diffusion (AID) model are two adaptive spreading processes on networks, in which a link in the network changes depending on the infectious state of its end nodes, but in opposite ways: (i) In the ASIS model a link is removed between two nodes if exactly one of the nodes is infected to suppress the epidemic, while a link is created in the AID model to speed up the information diffusion; (ii) a link is created between two susceptible nodes in the ASIS model to strengthen the healthy part of the network, while a link is broken in the AID model due to the lack of interest in informationless nodes. The ASIS and AID models may be considered as first-order models for cascades in real-world networks. While the ASIS model has been exploited in the literature, we show that the AID model is realistic by obtaining a good fit with Facebook data. Contrary to the common belief and intuition for such similar models, we show that the ASIS and AID models exhibit different but not opposite properties. Most remarkably, a unique metastable state always exists in the ASIS model, while there an hourglass-shaped region of instability in the AID model. Moreover, the epidemic threshold is a linear function in the effective link-breaking rate in the AID model, while it is almost constant but noisy in the AID model.

  13. Agent-based financial dynamics model from stochastic interacting epidemic system and complexity analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lu, Yunfan, E-mail: yunfanlu@yeah.net; Wang, Jun; Niu, Hongli

    2015-06-12

    An agent-based financial stock price model is developed and investigated by a stochastic interacting epidemic system, which is one of the statistical physics systems and has been used to model the spread of an epidemic or a forest fire. Numerical and statistical analysis are performed on the simulated returns of the proposed financial model. Complexity properties of the financial time series are explored by calculating the correlation dimension and using the modified multiscale entropy method. In order to verify the rationality of the financial model, the real stock market indexes, Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index, are studied in comparison with the simulation data of the proposed model for the different infectiousness parameters. The empirical research reveals that this financial model can reproduce some important features of the real stock markets. - Highlights: • A new agent-based financial price model is developed by stochastic interacting epidemic system. • The structure of the proposed model allows to simulate the financial dynamics. • Correlation dimension and MMSE are applied to complexity analysis of financial time series. • Empirical results show the rationality of the proposed financial model.

  14. FluTE, a publicly available stochastic influenza epidemic simulation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Dennis L; Halloran, M Elizabeth; Obenchain, Valerie J; Longini, Ira M

    2010-01-29

    Mathematical and computer models of epidemics have contributed to our understanding of the spread of infectious disease and the measures needed to contain or mitigate them. To help prepare for future influenza seasonal epidemics or pandemics, we developed a new stochastic model of the spread of influenza across a large population. Individuals in this model have realistic social contact networks, and transmission and infections are based on the current state of knowledge of the natural history of influenza. The model has been calibrated so that outcomes are consistent with the 1957/1958 Asian A(H2N2) and 2009 pandemic A(H1N1) influenza viruses. We present examples of how this model can be used to study the dynamics of influenza epidemics in the United States and simulate how to mitigate or delay them using pharmaceutical interventions and social distancing measures. Computer simulation models play an essential role in informing public policy and evaluating pandemic preparedness plans. We have made the source code of this model publicly available to encourage its use and further development.

  15. Drinking water turbidity and emergency department visits for gastrointestinal illness in Atlanta, 1993-2004.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinker, Sarah C; Moe, Christine L; Klein, Mitchel; Flanders, W Dana; Uber, Jim; Amirtharajah, Appiah; Singer, Philip; Tolbert, Paige E

    2010-01-01

    The extent to which drinking water turbidity measurements indicate the risk of gastrointestinal illness is not well understood. Despite major advances in drinking water treatment and delivery, infectious disease can still be transmitted through drinking water in the United States, and it is important to have reliable indicators of microbial water quality to inform public health decisions. The objective of our study was to assess the relationship between gastrointestinal illness, quantified through emergency department visits, and drinking water quality, quantified as raw water and filtered water turbidity measured at the treatment plant. We examined the relationship between turbidity levels of raw and filtered surface water measured at eight major drinking water treatment plants in the metropolitan area of Atlanta, Georgia, and over 240,000 emergency department visits for gastrointestinal illness during 1993-2004 among the population served by these plants. We fit Poisson time-series statistical regression models that included turbidity in a 21-day distributed lag and that controlled for meteorological factors and long-term time trends. For filtered water turbidity, the results were consistent with no association with emergency department visits for gastrointestinal illness. We observed a modest association between raw water turbidity and emergency department visits for gastrointestinal illness. Our results suggest that source water quality may contribute modestly to endemic gastrointestinal illness in the study area. The association between turbidity and emergency department visits for gastrointestinal illness was only observed when raw water turbidity was considered; filtered water turbidity may not serve as a reliable indicator of modest pathogen risk at all treatment plants.

  16. DRINKING WATER TURBIDITY AND EMERGENCY DEPARTMENT VISITS FOR GASTROINTESTINAL ILLNESS IN ATLANTA, 1993 – 2004

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinker, Sarah C.; Moe, Christine L.; Klein, Mitchel; Flanders, W. Dana; Uber, Jim; Amirtharajah, Appiah; Singer, Philip; Tolbert, Paige E.

    2013-01-01

    Background The extent to which drinking water turbidity measurements indicate the risk of gastrointestinal illness is not well-understood. Despite major advances in drinking water treatment and delivery, infectious disease can still be transmitted through drinking water in the U.S., and it is important to have reliable indicators of microbial water quality to inform public health decisions. The objective of our study was to assess the relationship between gastrointestinal illness, quantified through emergency department visits, and drinking water quality, quantified as raw water and filtered water turbidity measured at the treatment plant. Methods We examined the relationship between turbidity levels of raw and filtered surface water measured at eight major drinking water treatment plants in the metropolitan area of Atlanta, Georgia, and over 240 000 emergency department visits for gastrointestinal illness during 1993–2004 among the population served by these plants. We fit Poisson time-series statistical regression models that included turbidity in a 21-day distributed lag and that controlled for meteorological factors and long-term time trends. Results For filtered water turbidity, the results were consistent with no association with emergency department visits for gastrointestinal illness. We observed a modest association between raw water turbidity and emergency department visits for gastrointestinal illness. This association was not observed for all treatment plants in plant-specific analyses. Conclusions Our results suggest that source water quality may contribute modestly to endemic gastrointestinal illness in the study area. The association between turbidity and emergency department visits for gastrointestinal illness was only observed when raw water turbidity was considered; filtered water turbidity may not serve as a reliable indicator of modest pathogen risk at all treatment plants. PMID:18941478

  17. Executive summary of imported infectious diseases after returning from foreign travel: Consensus document of the Spanish Society for Infectious Diseases and Clinical Microbiology (SEIMC).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-Arellano, José Luis; Górgolas-Hernández-Mora, Miguel; Salvador, Fernando; Carranza-Rodríguez, Cristina; Ramírez-Olivencia, Germán; Martín-Echeverría, Esteban; Rodríguez-Guardado, Azucena; Norman, Francesca; Velasco-Tirado, Virginia; Zubero-Sulibarría, Zuriñe; Rojo-Marcos, Gerardo; Muñoz-Gutierrez, José; Ramos-Rincón, José Manuel; Sánchez-Seco-Fariñas, M Paz; Velasco-Arribas, María; Belhassen-García, Moncef; Lago-Nuñez, Mar; Cañas García-Otero, Elías; López-Vélez, Rogelio

    2018-03-01

    In a global world, knowledge of imported infectious diseases is essential in daily practice, both for the microbiologist-parasitologist and the clinician who diagnoses and treats infectious diseases in returned travelers. Tropical and subtropical countries where there is a greater risk of contracting an infectious disease are among the most frequently visited tourist destinations. The SEIMC considers it appropriate to produce a consensus document that will be useful to primary care physicians as well as specialists in internal medicine, infectious diseases and tropical medicine who help treat travelers returning from tropical and sub-tropical areas with infections. Preventive aspects of infectious diseases and infections imported by immigrants are explicitly excluded here, since they have been dealt with in other SEIMC documents. Various types of professionals (clinicians, microbiologists, and parasitologists) have helped produce this consensus document by evaluating the available evidence-based data in order to propose a series of key facts about individual aspects of the topic. The first section of the document is a summary of some of the general aspects concerning the general assessment of travelers who return home with potential infections. The main second section contains the key facts (causative agents, diagnostic procedures and therapeutic measures) associated with the major infectious syndromes affecting returned travelers [gastrointestinal syndrome (acute or persistent diarrhea); febrile syndrome with no obvious source of infection; localized cutaneous lesions; and respiratory infections]. Finally, the characteristics of special traveler subtypes, such as pregnant women and immunocompromised travelers, are described. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and Sociedad Española de Enfermedades Infecciosas y Microbiología Clínica. All rights reserved.

  18. Development of functional gastrointestinal disorders after Giardia lamblia infection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hanevik Kurt

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Functional gastrointestinal disorders (FGID may occur following acute gastroenteritis. This long-term complication has previously not been described after infection with the non-invasive protozoan Giardia lamblia. This study aims to characterize persistent abdominal symptoms elicited by Giardia infection according to Rome II criteria and symptoms scores. Methods Structured interview and questionnaires 12–30 months after the onset of Giardia infection, and at least 6 months after Giardia eradication, among 82 patients with persisting abdominal symptoms elicited by the Giardia infection. All had been evaluated to exclude other causes. Results We found that 66 (80.5% of the 82 patients had symptoms consistent with irritable bowel syndrome (IBS and 17 (24.3% patients had functional dyspepsia (FD according to Rome II criteria. IBS was sub classified into D-IBS (47.0%, A-IBS (45.5% and C-IBS (7.6%. Bloating, diarrhoea and abdominal pain were reported to be most severe. Symptoms exacerbation related to specific foods were reported by 45 (57.7% patients and to physical or mental stress by 34 (44.7% patients. Conclusion In the presence of an IBS-subtype pattern consistent with post-infectious IBS (PI-IBS, and in the absence of any other plausible causes, we conclude that acute Giardia infection may elicit functional gastrointestinal diseases with food and stress related symptoms similar to FGID patients in general.

  19. Poverty, global health, and infectious disease: lessons from Haiti and Rwanda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alsan, Marcella M; Westerhaus, Michael; Herce, Michael; Nakashima, Koji; Farmer, Paul E

    2011-09-01

    Poverty and infectious diseases interact in complex ways. Casting destitution as intractable, or epidemics that afflict the poor as accidental, erroneously exonerates us from responsibility for caring for those most in need. Adequately addressing communicable diseases requires a biosocial appreciation of the structural forces that shape disease patterns. Most health interventions in resource-poor settings could garner support based on cost/benefit ratios with appropriately lengthy time horizons to capture the return on health investments and an adequate accounting of externalities; however, such a calculus masks the suffering of inaction and risks eroding the most powerful incentive to act: redressing inequality. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Gendered Epidemics and Systems of Power in Africa: A Feminist ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    creating an environment that increases women's vulnerability to epidemics. The article ..... to epidemics because rarely, if ever, does a single reason account for their vulnerability. ... life as a young woman. Contraception gave her freedom from.

  1. the south african hiv epidemic, reflected by nine provincial ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    the distribution and trend of the HIV epidemic in each of the ... The exponential model significantly explains the HIV epidemics in the .... such a curve is considered to be made up of three. October 199 ..... Ut: Quantitative Forecasting Methods.

  2. Phylogenetics of the Danish HIV epidemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Audelin, Anne Margrethe; Cowan, Susan A; Obel, Niels

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND:: In Denmark 300 new individuals are diagnosed with HIV every year, despite decades of public health campaigns aimed to raise awareness of potential risk behaviour for HIV transmission. It is important to identify the driving forces of the epidemic, to enable more targeted campaigns...

  3. CDC Vital Signs: Today's Heroin Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... the MMWR Science Clips Today’s Heroin Epidemic More people at risk, multiple drugs abused Language: English (US) Español Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir On This Page Overview Problem Infographics What Can Be Done Issue Details Overview Heroin use has increased across the US among men and ...

  4. The Prescription Opioid Pain Medication Overdose Epidemic

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2016-04-19

    Overdose related to prescription opioids has become an epidemic. This podcast discusses the risks of this type of drug sometimes used to treat pain, and how to protect yourself. .  Created: 4/19/2016 by National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion (NCCDPHP).   Date Released: 4/19/2016.

  5. Alternative risk financing instruments for swine epidemics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meuwissen, M.P.M.; Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Huirne, R.B.M.

    2003-01-01

    Swine epidemics can have very large devastating financial consequences. Governments generally bear the direct losses, such as the value of destroyed animals. Consequential losses, such as the losses resulting from empty buildings and movement standstills, are completely borne by the farmers (and

  6. A Weighted Configuration Model and Inhomogeneous Epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Britton, Tom; Deijfen, Maria; Liljeros, Fredrik

    2011-12-01

    A random graph model with prescribed degree distribution and degree dependent edge weights is introduced. Each vertex is independently equipped with a random number of half-edges and each half-edge is assigned an integer valued weight according to a distribution that is allowed to depend on the degree of its vertex. Half-edges with the same weight are then paired randomly to create edges. An expression for the threshold for the appearance of a giant component in the resulting graph is derived using results on multi-type branching processes. The same technique also gives an expression for the basic reproduction number for an epidemic on the graph where the probability that a certain edge is used for transmission is a function of the edge weight (reflecting how closely `connected' the corresponding vertices are). It is demonstrated that, if vertices with large degree tend to have large (small) weights on their edges and if the transmission probability increases with the edge weight, then it is easier (harder) for the epidemic to take off compared to a randomized epidemic with the same degree and weight distribution. A recipe for calculating the probability of a large outbreak in the epidemic and the size of such an outbreak is also given. Finally, the model is fitted to three empirical weighted networks of importance for the spread of contagious diseases and it is shown that R 0 can be substantially over- or underestimated if the correlation between degree and weight is not taken into account.

  7. Epidemic spreading on preferred degree adaptive networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jolad, Shivakumar; Liu, Wenjia; Schmittmann, B; Zia, R K P

    2012-01-01

    We study the standard SIS model of epidemic spreading on networks where individuals have a fluctuating number of connections around a preferred degree κ. Using very simple rules for forming such preferred degree networks, we find some unusual statistical properties not found in familiar Erdös-Rényi or scale free networks. By letting κ depend on the fraction of infected individuals, we model the behavioral changes in response to how the extent of the epidemic is perceived. In our models, the behavioral adaptations can be either 'blind' or 'selective'--depending on whether a node adapts by cutting or adding links to randomly chosen partners or selectively, based on the state of the partner. For a frozen preferred network, we find that the infection threshold follows the heterogeneous mean field result λ(c)/μ = / and the phase diagram matches the predictions of the annealed adjacency matrix (AAM) approach. With 'blind' adaptations, although the epidemic threshold remains unchanged, the infection level is substantially affected, depending on the details of the adaptation. The 'selective' adaptive SIS models are most interesting. Both the threshold and the level of infection changes, controlled not only by how the adaptations are implemented but also how often the nodes cut/add links (compared to the time scales of the epidemic spreading). A simple mean field theory is presented for the selective adaptations which capture the qualitative and some of the quantitative features of the infection phase diagram.

  8. [Notes about other epidemics in Colonial Chile].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laval, Enrique

    2015-10-01

    In chronicles or in the historiography of the Colony in Chile there are few references about epidemics different to smallpox; like typhus, typhoid fever, dysentery, etc. Almost all, fast spreading in the country and some with high lethality, which led to overflowing the capacity of hospitals in the Chilean colonial period.

  9. Epidemic spreading through direct and indirect interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganguly, Niloy; Krueger, Tyll; Mukherjee, Animesh; Saha, Sudipta

    2014-09-01

    In this paper we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic dynamics, considering a specialized setting where popular places (termed passive entities) are visited by agents (termed active entities). We consider two types of spreading dynamics: direct spreading, where the active entities infect each other while visiting the passive entities, and indirect spreading, where the passive entities act as carriers and the infection is spread via them. We investigate in particular the effect of selection strategy, i.e., the way passive entities are chosen, in the spread of epidemics. We introduce a mathematical framework to study the effect of an arbitrary selection strategy and derive formulas for prevalence, extinction probabilities, and epidemic thresholds for both indirect and direct spreading. We also obtain a very simple relationship between the extinction probability and the prevalence. We pay special attention to preferential selection and derive exact formulas. The analysis reveals that an increase in the diversity in the selection process lowers the epidemic thresholds. Comparing the direct and indirect spreading, we identify regions in the parameter space where the prevalence of the indirect spreading is higher than the direct one.

  10. Cholera Epidemic Control | Zachariah | Malawi Medical Journal

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Malawi Medical Journal. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL · Advanced Search · Current Issue · Archives · Journal Home > Vol 13, No 1 (2001) >. Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads. Username, Password, Remember me, or Register. Cholera Epidemic Control. R Zachariah. Full Text: EMAIL FREE ...

  11. Social epidemics in the aftermath of disasters.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    IJzermans, C.J.

    2002-01-01

    Issue/problem: After disasters, terrorist attacks and wars social epidemics of medically unexplained physical symptoms/syndromes (ups) are often seen. In modern times people feel more vulnerable and especially under pressure of those incidents, everyday symptoms are interpreted as disease and

  12. Update in Infectious Diseases 2017.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Candel, F J; Peñuelas, M; Lejárraga, C; Emilov, T; Rico, C; Díaz, I; Lázaro, C; Viñuela-Prieto, J M; Matesanz, M

    2017-09-01

    Antimicrobial resistance in complex models of continuous infection is a current issue. The update 2017 course addresses about microbiological, epidemiological and clinical aspects useful for a current approach to infectious disease. During the last year, nosocomial pneumonia approach guides, recommendations for management of yeast and filamentous fungal infections, review papers on the empirical approach to peritonitis and extensive guidelines on stewardship have been published. HIV infection is being treated before and more intensively. The implementation of molecular biology, spectrometry and inmunology to traditional techniques of staining and culture achieve a better and faster microbiological diagnosis. Finally, the infection is increasingly integrated, assessing non-antibiotic aspects in the treatment.

  13. Parameterizing Spatial Models of Infectious Disease Transmission that Incorporate Infection Time Uncertainty Using Sampling-Based Likelihood Approximations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajat Malik

    Full Text Available A class of discrete-time models of infectious disease spread, referred to as individual-level models (ILMs, are typically fitted in a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC framework. These models quantify probabilistic outcomes regarding the risk of infection of susceptible individuals due to various susceptibility and transmissibility factors, including their spatial distance from infectious individuals. The infectious pressure from infected individuals exerted on susceptible individuals is intrinsic to these ILMs. Unfortunately, quantifying this infectious pressure for data sets containing many individuals can be computationally burdensome, leading to a time-consuming likelihood calculation and, thus, computationally prohibitive MCMC-based analysis. This problem worsens when using data augmentation to allow for uncertainty in infection times. In this paper, we develop sampling methods that can be used to calculate a fast, approximate likelihood when fitting such disease models. A simple random sampling approach is initially considered followed by various spatially-stratified schemes. We test and compare the performance of our methods with both simulated data and data from the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease (FMD epidemic in the U.K. Our results indicate that substantial computation savings can be obtained--albeit, of course, with some information loss--suggesting that such techniques may be of use in the analysis of very large epidemic data sets.

  14. The use of convalescent plasma to treat emerging infectious diseases: focus on Ebola virus disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkler, Anne M; Koepsell, Scott A

    2015-11-01

    The purpose of this review is to discuss the use of convalescent plasma for the treatment of emerging infectious diseases, focusing on the recent use for the treatment of Ebola virus disease (EVD). Ebola convalescent plasma has been used as a therapy for treatment of EVD during the 2014 West Africa epidemic. Several cases from the United States and Europe have been recently published, in addition to multiple ongoing clinical trials in the United States and West Africa. Even more recently, convalescent plasma has been used for treatment of individuals with Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infection. Although the first reports of successful treatment with passive immune therapy date back to the early 1900s, convalescent plasma has materialized as a possible therapy for patients who develop infection from one of the emerging infectious diseases such as EVD or MERS-CoV, although the efficacy of such therapy has yet to be proven in clinical trials.

  15. Economic cost and burden of dengue during epidemics and non-epidemic years in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dih-Ling Luh

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Determining the disease and economic burden of dengue is critical for the allocation of public health resources. Several studies have used disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs to estimate the disease burden of dengue in different regions. However, there are no published studies discussing the estimates of dengue-related economic and disease burden specifically in Taiwan. Objectives: We assessed the economic cost and disease burden of dengue infections in Taiwan for the period 1998–2014, and compared these during epidemic and non-epidemic years. Methods: We estimated the annual DALYs per million population using the disability weights for dengue fever (DF, dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF, dengue shock syndrome (DSS, and death cases. Economic costs were estimated and divided into direct (medical costs and indirect costs (lost work days and caregiver fees. Results: For the period 1998–2014, a mean of 115.3 (range: 6.3–934.3 DALYs per million population annually were lost to dengue. In epidemic years, direct costs associated with dengue resulted mostly from hospitalization (86.09%, emergency (7.77%, outpatient (6.10%, and drug costs (0.03%. For indirect costs, lost productivity due to death (70.76% was the dominant contributor. Overall, the costs were 12.3 times higher in epidemic years than in non-epidemic years (Wilcoxon rank sum test, p < 0.05. Conclusions: This study is the first to evaluate the economic costs and disease burden of dengue infections for this period in Taiwan, and reveals significant differences in economic impact between epidemic and non-epidemic years. Keywords: Economic cost of disease, Disease burden, Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs, Dengue, Epidemic

  16. Transferring the Malaria Epidemic Prediction Model to Users in East ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Transferring the Malaria Epidemic Prediction Model to Users in East Africa. In the highlands of East Africa, epidemic malaria is an emerging climate-related hazard that urgently needs addressing. Malaria incidence increased by 337% during the 1987 epidemic in Rwanda. In Tanzania, Uganda and Kenya, malaria incidence ...

  17. Integrated travel network model for studying epidemics: Interplay between journeys and epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruan, Zhongyuan; Wang, Chaoqing; Ming Hui, Pak; Liu, Zonghua

    2015-06-01

    The ease of travelling between cities has contributed much to globalization. Yet, it poses a threat on epidemic outbreaks. It is of great importance for network science and health control to understand the impact of frequent journeys on epidemics. We stress that a new framework of modelling that takes a traveller’s viewpoint is needed. Such integrated travel network (ITN) model should incorporate the diversity among links as dictated by the distances between cities and different speeds of different modes of transportation, diversity among nodes as dictated by the population and the ease of travelling due to infrastructures and economic development of a city, and round-trip journeys to targeted destinations via the paths of shortest travel times typical of human journeys. An example is constructed for 116 cities in China with populations over one million that are connected by high-speed train services and highways. Epidemic spread on the constructed network is studied. It is revealed both numerically and theoretically that the traveling speed and frequency are important factors of epidemic spreading. Depending on the infection rate, increasing the traveling speed would result in either an enhanced or suppressed epidemic, while increasing the traveling frequency enhances the epidemic spreading.

  18. GRAPHICAL USER INTERFACE WITH APPLICATIONS IN SUSCEPTIBLE-INFECTIOUS-SUSCEPTIBLE MODELS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ilea, M; Turnea, M; Arotăriţei, D; Rotariu, Mariana; Popescu, Marilena

    2015-01-01

    Practical significance of understanding the dynamics and evolution of infectious diseases increases continuously in contemporary world. The mathematical study of the dynamics of infectious diseases has a long history. By incorporating statistical methods and computer-based simulations in dynamic epidemiological models, it could be possible for modeling methods and theoretical analyses to be more realistic and reliable, allowing a more detailed understanding of the rules governing epidemic spreading. To provide the basis for a disease transmission, the population of a region is often divided into various compartments, and the model governing their relation is called the compartmental model. To present all of the information available, a graphical user interface provides icons and visual indicators. The graphical interface shown in this paper is performed using the MATLAB software ver. 7.6.0. MATLAB software offers a wide range of techniques by which data can be displayed graphically. The process of data viewing involves a series of operations. To achieve it, I had to make three separate files, one for defining the mathematical model and two for the interface itself. Considering a fixed population, it is observed that the number of susceptible individuals diminishes along with an increase in the number of infectious individuals so that in about ten days the number of individuals infected and susceptible, respectively, has the same value. If the epidemic is not controlled, it will continue for an indefinite period of time. By changing the global parameters specific of the SIS model, a more rapid increase of infectious individuals is noted. Using the graphical user interface shown in this paper helps achieving a much easier interaction with the computer, simplifying the structure of complex instructions by using icons and menus, and, in particular, programs and files are much easier to organize. Some numerical simulations have been presented to illustrate theoretical

  19. Using prediction markets of market scoring rule to forecast infectious diseases: a case study in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tung, Chen-yuan; Chou, Tzu-chuan; Lin, Jih-wen

    2015-08-11

    The Taiwan CDC relied on the historical average number of disease cases or rate (AVG) to depict the trend of epidemic diseases in Taiwan. By comparing the historical average data with prediction markets, we show that the latter have a better prediction capability than the former. Given the volatility of the infectious diseases in Taiwan, historical average is unlikely to be an effective prediction mechanism. We designed and built the Epidemic Prediction Markets (EPM) system based upon the trading mechanism of market scoring rule. By using this system, we aggregated dispersed information from various medical professionals to predict influenza, enterovirus, and dengue fever in Taiwan. EPM was more accurate in 701 out of 1,085 prediction events than the traditional baseline of historical average and the winning ratio of EPM versus AVG was 64.6 % for the target week. For the absolute prediction error of five diseases indicators of three infectious diseases, EPM was more accurate for the target week than AVG except for dengue fever confirmed cases. The winning ratios of EPM versus AVG for the confirmed cases of severe complicated influenza case, the rate of enterovirus infection, and the rate of influenza-like illness in the target week were 69.6 %, 83.9 and 76.0 %, respectively; instead, for the prediction of the confirmed cases of dengue fever and the confirmed cases of severe complicated enterovirus infection, the winning ratios of EPM were all below 50 %. Except confirmed cases of dengue fever, EPM provided accurate, continuous and real-time predictions of four indicators of three infectious diseases for the target week in Taiwan and outperformed the historical average data of infectious diseases.

  20. Upper gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with CKD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Chih-Chia; Wang, Su-Ming; Kuo, Huey-Liang; Chang, Chiz-Tzung; Liu, Jiung-Hsiun; Lin, Hsin-Hung; Wang, I-Kuan; Yang, Ya-Fei; Lu, Yueh-Ju; Chou, Che-Yi; Huang, Chiu-Ching

    2014-08-07

    Patients with CKD receiving maintenance dialysis are at risk for upper gastrointestinal bleeding. However, the risk of upper gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with early CKD who are not receiving dialysis is unknown. The hypothesis was that their risk of upper gastrointestinal bleeding is negatively linked to renal function. To test this hypothesis, the association between eGFR and risk of upper gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with stages 3-5 CKD who were not receiving dialysis was analyzed. Patients with stages 3-5 CKD in the CKD program from 2003 to 2009 were enrolled and prospectively followed until December of 2012 to monitor the development of upper gastrointestinal bleeding. The risk of upper gastrointestinal bleeding was analyzed using competing-risks regression with time-varying covariates. In total, 2968 patients with stages 3-5 CKD who were not receiving dialysis were followed for a median of 1.9 years. The incidence of upper gastrointestinal bleeding per 100 patient-years was 3.7 (95% confidence interval, 3.5 to 3.9) in patients with stage 3 CKD, 5.0 (95% confidence interval, 4.8 to 5.3) in patients with stage 4 CKD, and 13.9 (95% confidence interval, 13.1 to 14.8) in patients with stage 5 CKD. Higher eGFR was associated with a lower risk of upper gastrointestinal bleeding (P=0.03), with a subdistribution hazard ratio of 0.93 (95% confidence interval, 0.87 to 0.99) for every 5 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) higher eGFR. A history of upper gastrointestinal bleeding (Pupper gastrointestinal bleeding risk. In patients with CKD who are not receiving dialysis, lower renal function is associated with higher risk for upper gastrointestinal bleeding. The risk is higher in patients with previous upper gastrointestinal bleeding history and low serum albumin. Copyright © 2014 by the American Society of Nephrology.

  1. Gastrointestinal helminths in migratory Camel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S G Rewatkar

    Full Text Available Survey of gastrointestinal helminth parasites in camel migrated from U.P., M.P., and Rajasthan at Nagpur region was carried out in early summer, 2008. Total 28 samples (12 males and 16 females were collected from different places of Nagpur region. They revealed parasites as Trichuris sp.(50%, Strongyloides sp.(32.14%, Trichostrongylus sp.(10.71%, Nematodirus sp.(10.71%, Haemonchus sp.(14.28%, Eurytrema sp.(21.42% ,Eimeria sp.(25%, Entamoeba sp.(17.85% and Balantidium sp.(7.14%.All were found positive for mixed helminthic infection. [Vet World 2009; 2(7.000: 258-258

  2. Gastrointestinal obstruction in penguin chicks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perpiñán, David; Curro, Thomas G

    2009-12-01

    A 7-day-old gentoo penguin (Pygoscelis papua) was found dead and postmortem examination revealed impaction of the ventriculus with feathers. A review of mortality in gentoo penguin chicks from 1997 to 2007 at that institution revealed another case of feather impaction of the ventriculus in a 4-week-old chick, a sibling of the previous chick. A third case of gastrointestinal impaction occurred in a 24-day-old king penguin (Aptenodytes patagonicus) with omphallitis and enteritis. In this chick, a fibrin mat produced a complete obstruction of the intestine at the level of Meckel's diverticulum.

  3. Fraccionando la microbiota gastrointestinal humana

    OpenAIRE

    Peris Bondia, Francisco

    2012-01-01

    La microbiota gastrointestinal humana es una de las comunidades microbianas más diversa y compleja que se puede encontrar en la naturaleza. Las nuevas tecnologías de secuenciación permiten obtener una amplia visión de la diversidad microbiana, lo que ha revelado una gran cantidad de bacterias no cultivables. A pesar del potencial de estas tecnologías de alto rendimiento la metagenómica no muestra la imagen completa. La citometría de flujo es una metodología que permite describir y/o separa...

  4. [Infectious diseases - a specialty of internal medicine].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fätkenheuer, G; Jung, N; Kern, W V; Fölsch, U R; Salzberger, B

    2018-04-01

    Infectious diseases have recently gained wide public interest. Emerging infections and rising rates of antibiotic resistance are determining this trend. Both challenges will need to be addressed in international and local collaborations between different specialties in medicine and basic science. Infectious diseases as a clinical specialty in this scenario is directly responsible for the care of patients with infectious diseases. Its involvement in the care of patients with complicated infections has proved to be highly effective. Antibiotic stewardship programmes are effective measures in slowing the development of antibiotic resistance and have been widely implemented. But antibiotic stewardship specialists should not be confused with or taken as an alternative to infectious disease experts. Infectious diseases requires appropriate and specific training. It mainly uses the instrumentarium of internal medicine. With the current challenges in modern medicine, infectious diseases in Germany should thus be upgraded from a subspecialty to a clinical specialty, ideally within Internal Medicine.

  5. Some Observations on Naso-pharyngeal Epidemics in Public Schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glover, J A

    1928-07-01

    Over 80 per cent. of school sickness, whether judged by the number of cases or by the time lost, is transmitted by "droplet" infection.The alleged increase in sickness in public schools is partly apparent, due to increased attention to minor febricula and partly real, due (1) to increased influenza prevalence, the aftermath of the great epidemic of 1918, and (2) to the increased demand for public school education leading to pressure upon accommodation, and especially to overcrowding in dormitories.The bulk of the droplet infections are accounted for by (1) influenza; (2) feverish cold, chill, or P.U.O.; (3) tonsillitis; regular infectious diseases make a comparatively small showing. The incidence and bacteriological findings and the variations in the incidence of pneumonia and otitis media are discussed. Are these complications really secondary epidemics? Tonsillitis, bacteriological findings, milk.Prophylaxis.-Efficacy of vaccines uncertain. Some evidence that they may diminish the onset of complications. If given vaccines should be administered before the danger period, i.e., not later than November.Intensive prophylaxia other than vaccines during the first half of the Lent term would probably amply repay any trouble. It should include:-(a) Special efforts to prevent boys returning to school after the Christmas holidays infected with influenza or febricula.(b) Temperature taking for three weeks.(c) Immediate isolation of all pyrexias and catarrhs.(d) No work before breakfast for at least the first six weeks of the term.(e) All hot baths and showers taken during the day or after games to be followed by cold showers.(f) Prevention of chill in watching games, etc.(g) Increased provision for drying clothes, uniforms and boots.Infection mainly takes place in sleeping quarters, and proper spacing out of beds and thorough "cross" ventilation in dormitories is of paramount importance; instances of cross infection due to proximity of beds; illustrated by bed charts and

  6. Development and Characterization of Recombinant Virus Generated from a New World Zika Virus Infectious Clone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weger-Lucarelli, James; Duggal, Nisha K; Bullard-Feibelman, Kristen; Veselinovic, Milena; Romo, Hannah; Nguyen, Chilinh; Rückert, Claudia; Brault, Aaron C; Bowen, Richard A; Stenglein, Mark; Geiss, Brian J; Ebel, Gregory D

    2017-01-01

    Zika virus (ZIKV; family Flaviviridae, genus Flavivirus) is a rapidly expanding global pathogen that has been associated with severe clinical manifestations, including devastating neurological disease in infants. There are currently no molecular clones of a New World ZIKV available that lack significant attenuation, hindering progress toward understanding determinants of transmission and pathogenesis. Here we report the development and characterization of a novel ZIKV reverse genetics system based on a 2015 isolate from Puerto Rico (PRVABC59). We generated a two-plasmid infectious clone system from which infectious virus was rescued that replicates in human and mosquito cells with growth kinetics representative of wild-type ZIKV. Infectious clone-derived virus initiated infection and transmission rates in Aedes aegypti mosquitoes comparable to those of the primary isolate and displayed similar pathogenesis in AG129 mice. This infectious clone system provides a valuable resource to the research community to explore ZIKV molecular biology, vaccine development, antiviral development, diagnostics, vector competence, and disease pathogenesis. ZIKV is a rapidly spreading mosquito-borne pathogen that has been linked to Guillain-Barré syndrome in adults and congenital microcephaly in developing fetuses and infants. ZIKV can also be sexually transmitted. The viral molecular determinants of any of these phenotypes are not well understood. There is no reverse genetics system available for the current epidemic virus that will allow researchers to study ZIKV immunity, develop novel vaccines, or develop antiviral drugs. Here we provide a novel infectious clone system generated from a recent ZIKV isolated from a patient infected in Puerto Rico. This infectious clone produces virus with in vitro and in vivo characteristics similar to those of the primary isolate, providing a critical tool to study ZIKV infection and disease. Copyright © 2016 American Society for Microbiology.

  7. Infectious Disease Clinical Research Program (IDCRP)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — Our mission is to conduct infectious disease clinical research of importance to the military through a unique, adaptive, and collaborative network, to inform health...

  8. Ghrelin and gastrointestinal stromal tumors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Chang-Zhen; Liu, Dong; Kang, Wei-Ming; Yu, Jian-Chun; Ma, Zhi-Qiang; Ye, Xin; Li, Kang

    2017-03-14

    Ghrelin, as a kind of multifunctional protein polypeptide, is mainly produced in the fundus of the stomach and can promote occurrence and development of many tumors, including gastrointestinal tumors, which has been proved by the relevant researches. Most gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs, about 80%), as the most common mesenchymal tumor, also develop in the fundus. Scientific research has confirmed that ghrelin, its receptors and mRNA respectively can be found in GISTs, which demonstrated the existence of a ghrelin autocrine/paracrine loop in GIST tissues. However, no reports to date have specified the mechanism whether ghrelin can promote the occurrence and development of GISTs. Studies of pulmonary artery endothelial cells in a low-oxygen environment and cardiac muscle cells in an ischemic environment have shown that ghrelin can activate the phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase/AKT/mammalian target of rapamycin (PI3K/AKT/mTOR) signaling pathway. Moreover, some studies of GISTs have confirmed that activation of the PI3K/AKT/mTOR pathway can indeed promote the growth and progression of GISTs. Whether ghrelin is involved in the development or progression of GISTs through certain pathways remains unknown. Can we find a new target for the treatment of GISTs? This review explores and summaries the relationship among ghrelin, the PI3K/AKT/mTOR pathway and the development of GISTs.

  9. Does Hypothyroidism Affect Gastrointestinal Motility?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olga Yaylali

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Gastrointestinal motility and serum thyroid hormone levels are closely related. Our aim was to analyze whether there is a disorder in esophagogastric motor functions as a result of hypothyroidism. Materials and Methods. The study group included 30 females (mean age ± SE 45.17 ± 2.07 years with primary hypothyroidism and 10 healthy females (mean age ± SE 39.40 ± 3.95 years. All cases underwent esophagogastric endoscopy and scintigraphy. For esophageal scintigraphy, dynamic imaging of esophagus motility protocol, and for gastric emptying scintigraphy, anterior static gastric images were acquired. Results. The mean esophageal transit time (52.56 ± 4.07 sec for patients; 24.30 ± 5.88 sec for controls; P=.02 and gastric emptying time (49.06 ± 4.29 min for the hypothyroid group; 30.4 ± 4.74 min for the control group; P=.01 were markedly increased in cases of hypothyroidism. Conclusion. Hypothyroidism prominently reduces esophageal and gastric motor activity and can cause gastrointestinal dysfunction.

  10. Radiological diagnosis of gastrointestinal bleeding

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neufang, K.F.R.; Gross-Fengels, W.; Lorenz, R.

    1990-01-01

    In the diagnosis of acute gastrointestinal bleeding, endoscopy holds the first place today. Radiological investigations are indispensable whenever endoscopy cannot precisely localise the bleeding site, whenever a tumour is present or suspected, in all cases of lower gastrointestinal bleeding, and in haemobilia. A tailored radiological approach is recommended. The radiological basis programme should be at least a complete abdominal ultrasound study and plain abdominal radiograms. CT and ERCP scans may become necessary in selected cases. As a rule, angiographical localisation of the bleeding site will be successful only in the acute stage; selective visceral arteriograms have to be obtained, which may be executed in the digital subtraction technique in patients who are cooperating and clinically stable. Angiodysplasias and aneurysms, however, may be demonstrated angiographically in the interval as well. Upper and/or lower G.I. tract studies with barium or water-soluble contrast media may be indicated in the interval in order to demonstrate tumours, metastatic lesions, diverticula and gut malformations. (orig.) [de

  11. Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2001-06-01

    We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold defining a critical point below that the infection prevalence is null. On the contrary, on a wide range of scale-free networks we observe the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior. This implies that scale-free networks are prone to the spreading and the persistence of infections whatever spreading rate the epidemic agents might possess. These results can help understanding computer virus epidemics and other spreading phenomena on communication and social networks.

  12. Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2001-01-01

    We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold defining a critical point below that the infection prevalence is null. On the contrary, on a wide range of scale-free networks we observe the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior. This implies that scale-free networks are prone to the spreading and the persistence of infections whatever spreading rate the epidemic agents might possess. These results can help understanding computer virus epidemics and other spreading phenomena on communication and social networks

  13. Politics and pellagra: the epidemic of pellagra in the U.S. in the early twentieth century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bollet, A. J.

    1992-01-01

    The epidemic of pellagra in the first half of this century at its peak produced at least 250,000 cases and caused 7,000 deaths a year for several decades in 15 southern states. It also filled hospital wards in other states, which had a similar incidence but refused to report their cases. Political influences interfered, not only with surveillance of the disease, but also in its study, recognition of its cause, and the institution of preventive measures when they became known. Politicians and the general public felt that it was more acceptable for pellagra to be infectious than for it to be a form of malnutrition, a result of poverty and thus an embarrassing social problem. Retrospectively, a change in the method of milling cornmeal, degermination, which began shortly after 1900, probably accounted for the appearance of the epidemic; such a process was suggested at the time, but the suggestion was ignored. PMID:1285449

  14. Rationale for an HIV / AIDS prevention and mitigation strategy for Africa: combatting the multisectoral impact of the epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyerly, W H

    1996-01-01

    Unlike most infectious diseases in Africa, HIV/AIDS affects the urban elite as well as the rural poor, and generally during their most economically productive years. An increase in deaths among young adults of the magnitude predicted is likely to have substantial adverse effects on economic, political, and military/security stability throughout Africa. AIDS is causing increased stress on fragile African economic infrastructures as labor productivity declines, particularly in agricultural, labor-dependent economies. AIDS is causing obstacles to trade, foreign investment and tourism. Health systems and social coping mechanisms already are overburdened. High rates of HIV infection among police and military personnel threaten internal security. Furthermore, the demobilization of military forces in Africa may exacerbate the epidemic when HIV-infected soldiers return home and spread the virus. This presentation will illustrate why African AIDS Programs must be expanded to mitigate the multisectoral impact of the epidemic while preserving its spread.

  15. Prevalence of infectious and non-infectious diseases in cattle population in Moulvibazar district of Bangladesh

    OpenAIRE

    Chowdhury, Q M Monzur Kader; Roy, Sawrab; Alam, Shahrul; Ahmed, Juned

    2018-01-01

    Infectious and non-infectious diseases of cattle cause great economic losses of farmers as well as country every year by reducing growth, production and mortality of cattle population. The objective of this research work was to find out the prevalence of infectious and non-infectious diseases of cattle at Moulvibazar, Sylhet, Bangladesh. A total of 2285 clinical cases were diagnosed at District Veterinary Hospital in Moulvibazar, Bangladesh during January to June, 2016. Disease diagnosis was ...

  16. The book of infectious diseases—a living document

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashfaq Hasan

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Planet Earth continues to be pillaged by its dominant species. Man’s incursions into forests have resulted in denudation of massive tracts of land, and the displaced inhabitants—vectors carrying exotic infectious agents—have begun to wander deeper into man’s territory. In 1993, in South-Western United States, the Sin Nombre virus (the first Hantavirus normally a pathogen of mice, developed its first taste for Homo sapiens. In 1997, the avian influenza H5N1 virus, jumped species to man. In 2002, a virus of civet cats in the Guangdong Province in Southern China transformed itself into the lethal SARS virus. In 2009, two swine strains, one human strain, and one bird strain of influenza all combined them-selves into a new deadly strain—the H1N1 Swine Flu virus. And only last year, the MERS-Coronavirus became a new player in the changea-ble game of infectious disease. Almost as soon as the world comes stumblingly to terms with one new epidemic, another unleashes itself. Lessons were clearly not learnt after the Ebola epidemic in 1976 which was followed by another major outbreak in Zaire in 1995. This year, confronted with a death-count that ex-ceeds the combined tally of all previous Ebola epidemics, the WHO has finally declared the Ebola outbreak in West Africa as an “extraordinary event” and admitted that it is indeed a “public health risk to other countries.” As a human pathogen, the Ebola virus is four dec-ades old. True to form, the little-affected developed nations—the countries with the resources to tackle emerging infections—have taken no great interest in the matter. Forty precious years have ticked by. The CDC admits: “We do not know how to treat Ebola or vaccinate against it—and it will be a long time before we do.” As with the other major infectious killers that ravage the developing world, the profit margin for a drug against Ebola is slender. The Zaire Ebola virus though, is special—it is the most deadly

  17. Cardiac imaging in infectious endocarditis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruun, Niels Eske; Habib, Gilbert; Thuny, Franck

    2014-01-01

    Infectious endocarditis remains both a diagnostic and a treatment challenge. A positive outcome depends on a rapid diagnosis, accurate risk stratification, and a thorough follow-up. Imaging plays a key role in each of these steps and echocardiography remains the cornerstone of the methods in use....... The technique of both transthoracic echocardiography and transoesophageal echocardiography has been markedly improved across the last decades and most recently three-dimensional real-time echocardiography has been introduced in the management of endocarditis patients. Echocardiography depicts structural changes...... with conventional CT (SPECT/CT). Of these methods, (18)F-FDG PET-CT carries the best promise for a future role in endocarditis. But there are distinct limitations with both SPECT/CT and (18)F-FDG PET-CT which should not be neglected. MRI and spiral CT are methods primarily used in the search for extra cardial...

  18. Epidemic Spreading with Heterogeneous Awareness on Human Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanling Lu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The spontaneous awareness behavioral responses of individuals have a significant impact on epidemic spreading. In this paper, a modified Susceptible-Alert-Infected-Susceptible (SAIS epidemic model with heterogeneous awareness is presented to study epidemic spreading in human networks and the impact of heterogeneous awareness on epidemic dynamics. In this model, when susceptible individuals receive awareness information about the presence of epidemic from their infected neighbor nodes, they will become alert individuals with heterogeneous awareness rate. Theoretical analysis and numerical simulations show that heterogeneous awareness can enhance the epidemic threshold with certain conditions and reduce the scale of virus outbreaks compared with no awareness. What is more, for the same awareness parameter, it also shows that heterogeneous awareness can slow effectively the spreading size and does not delay the arrival time of epidemic spreading peak compared with homogeneous awareness.

  19. The return of infectious disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrett, L

    1996-11-01

    This article presents the history of efforts to control the spread of infectious disease from the post-antibiotic era to 1995. Since World War II, public health strategy has focused on the eradication of microbes using powerful medical weaponry. The goal was to push humanity through a ¿health transition,¿ leaving the age of infectious disease permanently behind. But recent developments have shown that this grandiose optimism was premature. As people move across international borders, unwanted microbial hitch-hikers tag along, as happened in the case of Ebola. In large cities, sex industries arise and multiple-partner sex becomes more common, prompting rapid increases in sexually transmitted disease. Moreover, the practice of sharing syringes is a ready vehicle for the transmission of microbes while unhygienic health facilities become centers for the dissemination of disease rather than its control. Black market access to antimicrobials has led to overuse or outright misuse of the drugs and the emergence of resistant bacteria and parasites. Consequently, old organisms, aided by mankind's misuse of disinfectants and drugs, may take on new and more lethal forms. Even when allegations of biological warfare are not flying, it is often difficult to obtain accurate information about outbreaks of disease, particularly in countries dependent on foreign investment or tourism or both. Unfortunately, only 6 laboratories in the world meet security and safety standards that would make them suitable sites for research on the world's deadliest microbes. National security warrants bolder steps involving focusing not only on microbes directly dangerous to humans, but also on those that could pose major threats to crops or livestock. Unfortunately, economic crises have led to budget cuts, particularly in health care, at all levels of government in the US.

  20. Epidemic extinction paths in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hindes, Jason; Schwartz, Ira B.

    2017-05-01

    We study the extinction of long-lived epidemics on finite complex networks induced by intrinsic noise. Applying analytical techniques to the stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible model, we predict the distribution of large fluctuations, the most probable or optimal path through a network that leads to a disease-free state from an endemic state, and the average extinction time in general configurations. Our predictions agree with Monte Carlo simulations on several networks, including synthetic weighted and degree-distributed networks with degree correlations, and an empirical high school contact network. In addition, our approach quantifies characteristic scaling patterns for the optimal path and distribution of large fluctuations, both near and away from the epidemic threshold, in networks with heterogeneous eigenvector centrality and degree distributions.

  1. Spread of epidemic disease on networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, M. E.

    2002-07-01

    The study of social networks, and in particular the spread of disease on networks, has attracted considerable recent attention in the physics community. In this paper, we show that a large class of standard epidemiological models, the so-called susceptible/infective/removed (SIR) models can be solved exactly on a wide variety of networks. In addition to the standard but unrealistic case of fixed infectiveness time and fixed and uncorrelated probability of transmission between all pairs of individuals, we solve cases in which times and probabilities are nonuniform and correlated. We also consider one simple case of an epidemic in a structured population, that of a sexually transmitted disease in a population divided into men and women. We confirm the correctness of our exact solutions with numerical simulations of SIR epidemics on networks.

  2. A break in the obesity epidemic?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Visscher, T L S; Heitmann, B L; Rissanen, A

    2015-01-01

    Recent epidemiologic papers are presenting prevalence data suggesting breaks and decreases in obesity rates. However, before concluding that the obesity epidemic is not increasing anymore, the validity of the presented data should be discussed more thoroughly. We had a closer look into the litera......, focusing on trends in waist circumference rather than BMI leads to a less optimistic conclusion: the public health problem of obesity is still increasing.International Journal of Obesity advance online publication, 22 July 2014; doi:10.1038/ijo.2014.98....... into the literature presented in recent reviews to address the major potential biases and distortions, and to develop insights about how to interpret the presented suggestions for a potential break in the obesity epidemic. Decreasing participation rates, the use of reported rather than measured data and small sample...

  3. Eight challenges for network epidemic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorenzo Pellis

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Networks offer a fertile framework for studying the spread of infection in human and animal populations. However, owing to the inherent high-dimensionality of networks themselves, modelling transmission through networks is mathematically and computationally challenging. Even the simplest network epidemic models present unanswered questions. Attempts to improve the practical usefulness of network models by including realistic features of contact networks and of host–pathogen biology (e.g. waning immunity have made some progress, but robust analytical results remain scarce. A more general theory is needed to understand the impact of network structure on the dynamics and control of infection. Here we identify a set of challenges that provide scope for active research in the field of network epidemic models.

  4. Computational algebraic geometry of epidemic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez Vega, Martín.

    2014-06-01

    Computational Algebraic Geometry is applied to the analysis of various epidemic models for Schistosomiasis and Dengue, both, for the case without control measures and for the case where control measures are applied. The models were analyzed using the mathematical software Maple. Explicitly the analysis is performed using Groebner basis, Hilbert dimension and Hilbert polynomials. These computational tools are included automatically in Maple. Each of these models is represented by a system of ordinary differential equations, and for each model the basic reproductive number (R0) is calculated. The effects of the control measures are observed by the changes in the algebraic structure of R0, the changes in Groebner basis, the changes in Hilbert dimension, and the changes in Hilbert polynomials. It is hoped that the results obtained in this paper become of importance for designing control measures against the epidemic diseases described. For future researches it is proposed the use of algebraic epidemiology to analyze models for airborne and waterborne diseases.

  5. Emergence of epidemics in rapidly varying networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kohar, Vivek; Sinha, Sudeshna

    2013-01-01

    We describe a simple model mimicking disease spreading on a network with dynamically varying connections, and investigate the dynamical consequences of switching links in the network. Our central observation is that the disease cycles get more synchronized, indicating the onset of epidemics, as the underlying network changes more rapidly. This behavior is found for periodically switched links, as well as links that switch randomly in time. We find that the influence of changing links is more pronounced in networks where the nodes have lower degree, and the disease cycle has a longer infective stage. Further, when the switching of links is periodic we observe finer dynamical features, such as beating patterns in the emergent oscillations and resonant enhancement of synchronization, arising from the interplay between the time-scales of the connectivity changes and that of the epidemic outbreaks

  6. [The depression epidemic does not exist].

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Feltz-Cornelis, Christina M

    2009-01-01

    There has been much discussion in the media about the question of the existence of a depression epidemic. This leads on to the questions of whether the social and economic approaches are adequate, and what the alternatives are. The concept of the disease 'depression' can be defined using a medical model, or from a patient's or a societal perspective. From a medical perspective, indeed a depression epidemic has ensued from the increased prosperity and the associated decompression of the mortality rate. Society responded with preventative measures and policies aimed at improving functioning in the workplace. However, patients with a major depressive disorder (MDD) who are eligible for treatment are often not motivated to take it up, or are undertreated. Research is necessary in order to explore what patients think about the identification and treatment of depression. The confusion regarding the concept of depression found in the media, needs to be cleared.

  7. New Approaches to the Methamphetamine Epidemic

    OpenAIRE

    Zusman, Mara B.

    2004-01-01

    Methamphetamine abuse has become an epidemic in the United States. As methamphetamine becomes increasingly available, more and more people are trying – and becoming addicted to – this potent drug. But although methamphetamine is made using over-the-counter (OTC) drugs containing pseudoephedrine, shifting OTC drugs containing pseudoephedrine to prescription status is not the solution to the methamphetamine crisis. Rather, society must adopt a comprehensive...

  8. The 1982 epidemic--roller skating injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunker, T. D.

    1983-01-01

    A series of 100 roller skating injuries is presented. Roller skating injuries have been occurring at a higher rate than the previously reported skateboarding epidemic of 1977. The severity of injury has been lower, 32% fractures and dislocations occurring whilst roller skating, compared to 60% whilst skateboarding. In particular a striking reduction is seen in ankle fractures. Fifty questionnaires detailing method of injury were analysed. Images p205-a Fig. 1 Fig. 2 PMID:6652406

  9. INFECTIOUS DISEASES IN CHILDREN: THE ROLE IN THE OCCURRENCE OF SOMATIC PATHOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. N. Mazankova

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The article examines the relationship of infectious diseases, especially opportunistic and viral infections, with the formation of chronic and physical illness. Scientific meta-analysis of the effect of infections on the start of autoimmune disease, chronic diseases of broncho-pulmonary and cardiovascular system, gastrointestinal tract, urinary and other systems is carried out. Special attention is given to the role of fetal viral infection in the development of congenital malformations and intrauterine pathology. The article discusses the prevention measures taken for controlling certain somatic diseases.

  10. Adaptive contact networks change effective disease infectiousness and dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Segbroeck, Sven; Santos, Francisco C; Pacheco, Jorge M

    2010-08-19

    Human societies are organized in complex webs that are constantly reshaped by a social dynamic which is influenced by the information individuals have about others. Similarly, epidemic spreading may be affected by local information that makes individuals aware of the health status of their social contacts, allowing them to avoid contact with those infected and to remain in touch with the healthy. Here we study disease dynamics in finite populations in which infection occurs along the links of a dynamical contact network whose reshaping may be biased based on each individual's health status. We adopt some of the most widely used epidemiological models, investigating the impact of the reshaping of the contact network on the disease dynamics. We derive analytical results in the limit where network reshaping occurs much faster than disease spreading and demonstrate numerically that this limit extends to a much wider range of time scales than one might anticipate. Specifically, we show that from a population-level description, disease propagation in a quickly adapting network can be formulated equivalently as disease spreading on a well-mixed population but with a rescaled infectiousness. We find that for all models studied here--SI, SIS and SIR--the effective infectiousness of a disease depends on the population size, the number of infected in the population, and the capacity of healthy individuals to sever contacts with the infected. Importantly, we indicate how the use of available information hinders disease progression, either by reducing the average time required to eradicate a disease (in case recovery is possible), or by increasing the average time needed for a disease to spread to the entire population (in case recovery or immunity is impossible).

  11. [Epidemiology of toxic and infectious risk related to shellfish consumption].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desenclos, J C

    1996-10-01

    For feeding purposes shellfish filter large amounts of water but also concentrate infectious agents and toxins that are present in the marine environment either naturally or because of pollution. Thus, the consumption of raw or undercooked shellfish is a substantial source of foodborne poisoning, mostly epidemic and sometimes sporadic. Most of shellfish-borne infectious diseases are linked to fecal contamination of the marine environment; they include: thyphoid fever, salmonellosis, shigellosis, campylobacteriosis, cholera, Norwalk or Norwalk-like gastroenteritis and hepatitis A. In warm climates, shellfish contains naturally occurring halopilic Vibrios and may cause severe sporadic infections (septicemias) among very susceptible consumers (immunocompromised). Shellfish also causes outbreaks of paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP) and diarrheic shellfish poisoning (DSP) when they are contaminated by toxins produced when Dinophisis, a marine plancton, proliferates. Chemical compounds (heavy metals and organic toxins) that are dumped in the environment (soil, air, and water) also reach shellfish harvesting waters where they are cocentrated. Although acute or chronic effects of the chemical contamination of shellfish have not been clearly documented, the cadmium pollution of some shellfish harvesting waters raises a serious problem. Since it is impossible to prevent completely the contamination of coastal waters by any of the agents cited above, the prevention of shellfish-borne diseases requires monitoring of the marine environment and shellfish flesh (coliform count, Dinophysis toxins, heavy metals...). This surveillance allows the classification of growing areas as suitable or not for harvesting and distribution of shellfish. However, this surveillance is not always sensitive enough. Indicators of fecal pollution are particularly not reliable for shellfish viral contamination. A better knowledge of marine biology, the limitation of coastal waters pollution, improved

  12. Connecting the obesity and the narcissism epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemaitre, Bruno

    2016-10-01

    Obesity and metabolic syndromes are major threats to health in both developed and developing countries. This opinion article is a holistic attempt to understand the obesity epidemic, by connecting it to the widespread narcissism in society. The narcissism epidemic refers to an increased prevalence of status-striving individualism and a decreased sense of community, observed in Westerns populations and spreading worldwide. Based on social personality and evolutionary psychology approaches, I speculate that this rise of narcissism underlies a steep social hierarchy resulting in increase of social stress. This social stress markedly affects individuals who are sensitive to social hierarchy dominance due to their personality, yet are relegated at a lower social position. I speculate that over-eating is one major mechanism for coping with this stress, and discuss the possibility that visceral fat may constitute an adaptive behaviour to the lower social hierarchy position, which is perceived as unjust. Connecting the prevalence of obesity to the narcissism epidemic allows for a more thorough examination of factors, which contribute to obesity, which includes early difficult childhood experience, lower rank, and the overall competitive framework of the society. Copyright © 2016 The Author. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  13. Epidemic risk from cholera introductions into Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Sean M; Shannon, Kerry L; Zelaya, Carla E; Azman, Andrew S; Lessler, Justin

    2014-02-21

    Stemming from the 2010 cholera outbreak in Haiti, cholera transmission in Hispaniola continues with over 40,000 cases in 2013. The presence of an ongoing cholera outbreak in the region poses substantial risks to countries throughout the Americas, particularly in areas with poor infrastructure. Since September 9, 2013 nearly 200 cholera cases have been reported in Mexico, as a result of introductions from Hispaniola or Cuba. There appear to have been multiple introductions into Mexico resulting in outbreaks of 2 to over 150 people. Using publicly available data, we attempt to estimate the reproductive number (R) of cholera in Mexico, and thereby assess the potential of continued introductions to establish a sustained epidemic. We estimate R for cholera in Mexico to be between 0.8 to 1.1, depending on the number of introductions, with the confidence intervals for the most plausible estimates crossing 1. These results suggest that the efficiency of cholera transmission in some regions of Mexico is near that necessary for a large epidemic. Intensive surveillance, evaluation of water and sanitation infrastructure, and planning for rapid response are warranted steps to avoid potential large epidemics in the region.

  14. Cyanobacteria facilitate parasite epidemics in Daphnia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tellenbach, C; Tardent, N; Pomati, F; Keller, B; Hairston, N G; Wolinska, J; Spaak, P

    2016-12-01

    The seasonal dominance of cyanobacteria in the phytoplankton community of lake ecosystems can have severe implications for higher trophic levels. For herbivorous zooplankton such as Daphnia, cyanobacteria have poor nutritional value and some species can produce toxins affecting zooplankton survival and reproduction. Here we present another, hitherto largely unexplored aspect of cyanobacteria, namely that they can increase Daphnia susceptibility to parasites. In a 12-yr monthly time-series analysis of the Daphnia community in Greifensee (Switzerland), we observed that cyanobacteria density correlated significantly with the epidemics of a common gut parasite of Daphnia, Caullerya mesnili, regardless of what cyanobacteria species was present or whether it was colonial or filamentous. The temperature from the previous month also affected the occurrence of Caullerya epidemics, either directly or indirectly by the promotion of cyanobacterial growth. A laboratory experiment confirmed that cyanobacteria increase the susceptibility of Daphnia to Caullerya, and suggested a possible involvement of cyanotoxins or other chemical traits of cyanobacteria in this process. These findings expand our understanding of the consequences of toxic cyanobacterial blooms for lake ecosystems and might be relevant for epidemics experienced by other aquatic species. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

  15. [Fight against epidemics: Austrian prisoners in Troyes].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hetzel, Géraldine

    2014-01-01

    The victories near Ulm and Elchingen, where the Napoleonic army took 60000 prisoners between 15th and 20th of October 1805, lead to the arrival at Troyes (county "Aube") of nearly 2000 Austrian soldiers to be held inside former monasteries among whose, mainly the Jacobinians casern where more than half of them stayed. At the beginning of 1806, the government sent the epidemics medical practitioner Dr Desgenettes on an inspection tour to control the state of health of the populations of places where foreign prisoners were held, which lead him through several counties of the North-eastern part of France, where he surveyed several diseases ranging from all kinds offevers up to dysentery, scabies or gangrenes. With the means of acid fumigations invented by the chemist Guyton Morveau from Dijon, the authorities took care of combating and preventing the epidemics in the caserns. As soon as October 1805, the epidemics medical practitioner Dr Pigeotte from Troyes wrote to the county governor his observations recommending a better diet, airing of the rooms and also calls to take some exercise. All these precepts showed an astonishing modernity.

  16. Epidemics in partially overlapped multiplex networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camila Buono

    Full Text Available Many real networks exhibit a layered structure in which links in each layer reflect the function of nodes on different environments. These multiple types of links are usually represented by a multiplex network in which each layer has a different topology. In real-world networks, however, not all nodes are present on every layer. To generate a more realistic scenario, we use a generalized multiplex network and assume that only a fraction [Formula: see text] of the nodes are shared by the layers. We develop a theoretical framework for a branching process to describe the spread of an epidemic on these partially overlapped multiplex networks. This allows us to obtain the fraction of infected individuals as a function of the effective probability that the disease will be transmitted [Formula: see text]. We also theoretically determine the dependence of the epidemic threshold on the fraction [Formula: see text] of shared nodes in a system composed of two layers. We find that in the limit of [Formula: see text] the threshold is dominated by the layer with the smaller isolated threshold. Although a system of two completely isolated networks is nearly indistinguishable from a system of two networks that share just a few nodes, we find that the presence of these few shared nodes causes the epidemic threshold of the isolated network with the lower propagating capacity to change discontinuously and to acquire the threshold of the other network.

  17. Computed tomography of the gastrointestinal tract

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fishman, E.K.; Jones, B.

    1988-01-01

    This book contains 11 chapters and five case studies. Some of the chapter titles are: CT of the Stomach; CT and Other Inflammatory Bowel Disease; Evaluation of Crohn's Disease; Periotoneal Metastasis; CT and MRI Correlation of the Gastrointestinal Tract; CT of Acute Gastrointestinal Abnormlities; and CT of Colorectal Cancer

  18. Possible Waardenburg syndrome with gastrointestinal anomalies.

    OpenAIRE

    Nutman, J; Steinherz, R; Sivan, Y; Goodman, R M

    1986-01-01

    We describe a patient with possible Waardenburg syndrome associated with anal atresia and oesophageal atresia with tracheooesophageal fistula. Three other published cases with atretic gastrointestinal anomalies associated with the Waardenburg syndrome are reviewed. We conclude that the association between atretic lesions of the gastrointestinal tract and the Waardenburg syndrome may be a significant one.

  19. Possible Waardenburg syndrome with gastrointestinal anomalies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nutman, J; Steinherz, R; Sivan, Y; Goodman, R M

    1986-01-01

    We describe a patient with possible Waardenburg syndrome associated with anal atresia and oesophageal atresia with tracheooesophageal fistula. Three other published cases with atretic gastrointestinal anomalies associated with the Waardenburg syndrome are reviewed. We conclude that the association between atretic lesions of the gastrointestinal tract and the Waardenburg syndrome may be a significant one. Images PMID:3712396

  20. Unsedated Flexible Upper Gastrointestinal Endoscopy: Need for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: To determine the incidence of oxygen desaturation and whether routine oxygen monitoring is necessary during unsedated diagnostic flexible upper gastrointestinal endoscopy. Methods: A prospective study involving 54 consecutive in and out patients who had diagnostic upper gastrointestinal endoscopy at ...

  1. Peptide Hormones in the Gastrointestinal Tract

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rehfeld, Jens F.

    2015-01-01

    Gastrointestinal hormones are peptides released from endocrine cells and neurons in the digestive tract. More than 30 hormone genes are currently known to be expressed in the gastrointestinal tract, which makes the gut the largest hormone-producing organ in the body. Modern biology makes it feasi...

  2. Mammalian gastrointestinal parasites in rainforest remnants

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Here, we studied the gastrointestinal parasites of nonhuman mammalian hosts living in 10 rainforest patches of the Anamalai Tiger Reserve, India. We examined 349 faecal samples of 17 mammalian species and successfully identified 24 gastroin-testinal parasite taxa including 1 protozoan, 2 trematode, 3 cestode and 18 ...

  3. Biophysical, infrastructural and social heterogeneities explain spatial distribution of waterborne gastrointestinal disease burden in Mexico City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baeza, Andrés; Estrada-Barón, Alejandra; Serrano-Candela, Fidel; Bojórquez, Luis A.; Eakin, Hallie; Escalante, Ana E.

    2018-06-01

    Due to unplanned growth, large extension and limited resources, most megacities in the developing world are vulnerable to hydrological hazards and infectious diseases caused by waterborne pathogens. Here we aim to elucidate the extent of the relation between the spatial heterogeneity of physical and socio-economic factors associated with hydrological hazards (flooding and scarcity) and the spatial distribution of gastrointestinal disease in Mexico City, a megacity with more than 8 million people. We applied spatial statistics and multivariate regression analyses to high resolution records of gastrointestinal diseases during two time frames (2007–2009 and 2010–2014). Results show a pattern of significant association between water flooding events and disease incidence in the city center (lowlands). We also found that in the periphery (highlands), higher incidence is generally associated with household infrastructure deficiency. Our findings suggest the need for integrated and spatially tailored interventions by public works and public health agencies, aimed to manage socio-hydrological vulnerability in Mexico City.

  4. Atypical Pyoderma Gangrenosum Mimicking an Infectious Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Derek To

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a patient with atypical pyoderma gangrenosum (APG, which involved the patient’s arm and hand. Hemorrhagic bullae and progressive ulcerations were initially thought to be secondary to an infectious process, but a biopsy revealed PG. Awareness of APG by infectious disease services may prevent unnecessary use of broad-spectrum antibiotics.

  5. Atypical pyoderma gangrenosum mimicking an infectious process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    To, Derek; Wong, Aaron; Montessori, Valentina

    2014-01-01

    We present a patient with atypical pyoderma gangrenosum (APG), which involved the patient's arm and hand. Hemorrhagic bullae and progressive ulcerations were initially thought to be secondary to an infectious process, but a biopsy revealed PG. Awareness of APG by infectious disease services may prevent unnecessary use of broad-spectrum antibiotics.

  6. 25 CFR 140.26 - Infectious plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 25 Indians 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Infectious plants. 140.26 Section 140.26 Indians BUREAU... Infectious plants. Traders shall not introduce into, sell, or spread within Indian reservations any plant, plant product, seed, or any type of vegetation, which is infested, or infected or which might act as a...

  7. Applications of Molecular Diagnostic Techniques for Infectious ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    That outcome, if accurate, would help the clinician in disease management, or the epidemiologist in identifying trends of diseases or the administrator in policy and decision making. Traditionally, infectious disease diagnosis involves identifying the causative agents of infectious diseases through the direct examination, ...

  8. Tickborne infectious diseases: diagnosis and management

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Cunha, Burke A

    2000-01-01

    ... to particular flora and fauna. The purpose of Tickborne Infectious Diseases: Diagnosis and Management is to condense in a single book different approaches and paradigms of tickborne infectious diseases. Three chapters are devoted to background information, including the natural history of ticks, the diagnostic procedures of tickborne diseases, and the new tick-transm...

  9. Breeding against infectious diseases in animals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rashidi, H.

    2016-01-01

    Infectious diseases in farm animals are of major concern because of animal welfare, production costs, and public health. Farms undergo huge economic losses due to infectious disease. The costs of infections in farm animals are mainly due to production losses, treatment of infected animals, and

  10. Emerging Infectious Disease Journal Cover Art

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2012-04-04

    Polyxeni Potter discusses the art used on the covers of the Emerging Infectious Diseases journal.  Created: 4/4/2012 by National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (NCEZID).   Date Released: 4/5/2012.

  11. Review of the role of probiotics in gastrointestinal diseases in adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebastián Domingo, Juan José

    Probiotics may act as biological agents that modify the intestinal microbiota and certain cytokine profiles, which can lead to an improvement in certain gastrointestinal diseases. To conduct a review of the evidence of the role of probiotics in certain gastrointestinal diseases in adults. Review conducted using appropriate descriptors, filters and limits in the PubMed database (MEDLINE). The MeSH terms used were Probiotics [in the title] AND Gastrointestinal Diseases, with the following limits or filters: Types of study: Systematic Reviews, Meta-Analysis, Guideline, Practice Guideline, Consensus Development Conference (and Consensus Development Conference NIH), Randomized Controlled Trial, Controlled Clinical Trial and Clinical Trial; age: adults (19 or older); language: English and Spanish; in humans, and with at least one abstract. Full texts of all the Systematic Reviews and meta-analyses directly related to the review's objective were obtained, as well as the Randomised Controlled Trials of the studies that were considered relevant and of sufficient quality for this review. Certain probiotics, different for each process, have proven to be effective and beneficial in cases of acute infectious diarrhoea, antibiotic-associated diarrhoea, Clostridium difficile-associated diarrhoea, pouchitis and Helicobacter pylori infection eradication. Although some probiotics have not demonstrated any benefit, there are certain gastrointestinal diseases in which the use of probiotics, true biological agents, can be recommended. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier España, S.L.U., AEEH y AEG. All rights reserved.

  12. Detection of intestinal protozoa in paediatric patients with gastrointestinal symptoms by multiplex real-time PCR.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maas, L; Dorigo-Zetsma, J W; de Groot, C J; Bouter, S; Plötz, F B; van Ewijk, B E

    2014-06-01

    The performance of a multiplex real-time PCR for the detection of Blastocystis, Dientamoeba fragilis, Giardia lamblia, Cryptosporidium species and Entamoeba species in faecal samples was evaluated in an observational prospective study. Paediatric patients (0-18 years) presenting with gastrointestinal symptoms and suspected of having enteroparasitic disease were included. A questionnaire on gastrointestinal symptoms and the chosen treatment was completed at the start of the study and after 6 weeks. Of 163 paediatric patients (mean age, 7.8 years), 114 (70%) had a PCR-positive faecal sample. D. fragilis was detected most frequently, in 101 patients, followed by Blastocystis in 49. In faecal samples of 47 patients, more than one protozoan was detected, mainly the combination of D. fragilis and Blastocystis. Reported gastrointestinal symptoms were abdominal pain (78%), nausea (30%), and altered bowel habits (28%). Eighty-nine of the PCR-positive patients were treated with antibiotics. A significant reduction in abdominal pain was observed both in treated and in untreated patients. This study demonstrated that multiplex real-time PCR detects a high percentage of intestinal protozoa in paediatric patients with gastrointestinal symptoms. However, interpretation and determination of the clinical relevance of a positive PCR result in this population are still difficult. © 2013 The Authors Clinical Microbiology and Infection © 2013 European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases.

  13. Powerful colloidal silver nanoparticles for the prevention of gastrointestinal bacterial infections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le, Anh-Tuan; Le, Thi Tam; Nguyen, Van Quy; Tran, Huy Hoang; Dang, Duc Anh; Tran, Quang Huy; Vu, Dinh Lam

    2012-01-01

    In this work we have demonstrated a powerful disinfectant ability of colloidal silver nanoparticles (NPs) for the prevention of gastrointestinal bacterial infections. The silver NPs colloid was synthesized by a UV-enhanced chemical precipitation. Two gastrointestinal bacterial strains of Escherichia coli (ATCC 43888-O157:k-:H7) and Vibrio cholerae (O1) were used to verify the antibacterial activity of the as-prepared silver NPs colloid by means of surface disinfection assay in agar plates and turbidity assay in liquid media. Transmission electron microscopy was also employed to analyze the ultrastructural changes of bacterial cells caused by silver NPs. Noticeably, our silver NPs colloid displayed a highly effective bactericidal effect against two tested gastrointestinal bacterial strains at a silver concentration as low as ∼3 mg l −1 . More importantly, the silver NPs colloid showed an enhancement of antibacterial activity and long-lasting disinfectant effect as compared to conventional chloramin B (5%) disinfection agent. These advantages of the as-prepared colloidal silver NPs make them very promising for environmental treatments contaminated with gastrointestinal bacteria and other infectious pathogens. Moreover, the powerful disinfectant activity of silver-containing materials can also help in controlling and preventing further outbreak of diseases. (paper)

  14. One Health: The global challenge of epidemic and endemic leishmaniasis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Day Michael J

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract 'One Health' proposes the unification of medical and veterinary sciences with the establishment of collaborative ventures in clinical care, surveillance and control of cross-species disease, education, and research into disease pathogenesis, diagnosis, therapy and vaccination. The concept encompasses the human population, domestic animals and wildlife, and the impact that environmental changes ('environmental health' such as global warming will have on these populations. Visceral leishmaniasis is a perfect example of a small companion animal disease for which prevention and control might abolish or decrease the suffering of canine and human patients, and which aligns well with the One Health approach. In this review we discuss how surveillance for leishmaniases is undertaken globally through the control of anthroponootic visceral leishmaniasis (AVL and zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis (ZVL. The ZVL epidemic has been managed to date by the culling of infected dogs, treatment of human cases and control of the sandfly vector by insecticidal treatment of human homes and the canine reservoir. Recently, preventive vaccination of dogs in Brazil has led to reduction in the incidence of the canine and human disease. Vaccination permits greater dog owner compliance with control measures than a culling programme. Another advance in disease control in Africa is provided by a surveillance programme that combines remote satellite sensing, ecological modelling, vector surveillance and geo-spatial mapping of the distribution of vectors and of the animal-to-animal or animal-to-human pathogen transmission. This coordinated programme generates advisory notices and alerts on emerging infectious disease outbreaks that may impede or avoid the spreading of visceral leishmaniasis to new areas of the planet as a consequence of global warming.

  15. Antidepressants and gastrointestinal symptoms in the general Dutch adult population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schurink, B.; Tielemans, M.M.; Aaldering, B.R.; Eikendal, T.; Jaspers Focks, J.; Laheij, R.J.F.; Jansen, J.B.M.J.; Rossum, L.G.M. van; Oijen, M.G.H. van

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Gastrointestinal symptoms are frequently reported adverse effects of antidepressants, but antidepressants are also a treatment modality in functional gastrointestinal disorders. We aimed to assess the association between antidepressant use and gastrointestinal symptoms in the general

  16. Certainties and Uncertainties Facing Emerging Respiratory Infectious Diseases: Lessons from SARS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yee-Chun Chen

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Every emerging infectious disease is a challenge to the whole of mankind. There are uncertainties regarding whether there will be a pandemic, if it will be caused by the highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza virus, when or where it will occur, how imminent or how severe it will be. No one can accurately predict if and when a given virus will become a pandemic virus. Pandemic prevention strategies must be based on preparing for the unexpected and being capable of reacting accordingly. There is growing evidence that infection control measures were helpful in containment of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS as well as avian influenza. Compliance of standard infection control measures, intensive promotion of hand and respiratory hygiene, vigilance and triage of patients with febrile illness, and specific infection control measures are key components to contain a highly contagious disease in hospital and to protect healthcare workers, patients and visitors. The importance of standard precautions for any patient and cleaning and disinfection for the healthcare environment cannot be overemphasized. SARS illustrated dramatically the potential of air travel and globalization for the dissemination of an emerging infectious disease. To prevent the potential serious consequences of pandemic influenza, timely implementation of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions locally within the outbreak area is the key to minimizing global spread. Herein, we relate our perspective on useful lessons derived from a review of the SARS epidemic that may be useful to physicians, especially when looking ahead to the next epidemic.

  17. HIV-Associated Gastrointestinal Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Björn E-O; Oette, Mark; Haes, Johannes; Häussinger, Dieter

    2017-01-01

    People living nowadays with HIV and AIDS may be treated effectively regarding virus replication and immunology. However, non-AIDS-defining cancer is of growing relevance due to high incidence and unfavorable outcome. The aim of this review is to summarize current knowledge on gastrointestinal (GI) carcinoma. Although literature on GI cancer is rare, an increased incidence of esophageal, gastric, pancreatic, hepatocellular, and colorectal carcinoma has been demonstrated. However, there are only few reports on therapy strategies and outcome, so that, despite increased occurrence of many GI carcinomas, only little is known about individualized treatment options and outcome in HIV-positive patients. More efforts have to be undertaken to close this gap. © 2017 S. Karger GmbH, Freiburg.

  18. Malignant tumors of gastrointestinal tract

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1989-01-01

    International histological classification and classification according to TNM systems, domestic clinical classification according to stages of carcinoma of stomach, large intestine and rectum are presented. Diagnosis of tumoral processes of the given localizations should be based on complex application of diagnostic methods: clinical, ultrasonic, radiological and others. Surgical method and variants of surgical method with preoperative radiotherapy play a leading role in treatment of mentioned tumors. Combined method of treatment-surgical intervention with postoperation intravenous injection of colloid 198 Au - is applied for preventing propagation of stomach cancer metastases. Advisability of combining operations with radiological and antitumoral medicamentous therapy is shown. Reliable results of treatment of malignant tumors of gastrointestinal tract are presented

  19. Epidemic optic neuropathy in Cuba. Eye findings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadun, A A; Martone, J F; Muci-Mendoza, R; Reyes, L; DuBois, L; Silva, J C; Roman, G; Caballero, B

    1994-05-01

    To characterize and establish a clinical definition of the optic neuropathy that appeared in epidemic form in Cuba in 1992 and 1993. At the invitation of the Cuban Ministry of Health, Havana, members of ORBIS International and the Pan American Health Organization, assembled teams that traveled to Cuba in May 1993. We were initially briefed by Cuban national experts in the areas of virology, nutrition, toxicology, ophthalmology, neurology, and public health. We then examined 20 patients on our own. Thirteen of these patients underwent a comprehensive neuro-ophthalmologic examination, including neurologic examination, ophthalmologic examination, visual fields, optic nerve function studies, contrast sensitivity studies, and funduscopy. We returned 4 months later to perform an additional 12 comprehensive neuro-ophthalmologic and follow-up examinations. Only seven of the 13 patients who were alleged to have the optic form of the epidemic and who were rigorously and systematically examined on the first visit demonstrated a bilateral optic neuropathy. These seven patients had several features that included decreased visual acuity, poor color vision, central scotomas, decreased contrast sensitivity, saccadic eye movements, and most prominent and distinctive of all, nerve fiber layer wedge defects of the papillomacular bundle. Our clinical definition was then implemented by the Cuban ophthalmologists and epidemiologists. On returning 4 months later, we found that all newly presented patients were correctly diagnosed to have the epidemic disease. With the new case definition and the application of a few simple psychophysical tests, the false-positive rate of diagnosis became much lower. After vitamin therapy, we reexamined the patients seen on our initial visit, and all showed marked improvement. The Cuban epidemic was characterized by an optic neuropathy with features that were similar to those of tobacco/alcohol amblyopia and Leber's optic atrophy. Recent political

  20. Contiguous spinal metastasis mimicking infectious spondylodiscitis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Chul Min; Lee, Seung Hun; Bae, Ji Yoon

    2015-01-01

    Differential diagnosis between spinal metastasis and infectious spondylodiscitis is one of the occasional challenges in daily clinical practice. We encountered an unusual case of spinal metastasis in a 75-year-old female breast cancer patient that mimicked infectious spondylodiscitis. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) showed diffuse bone marrow infiltrations with paraspinal soft tissue infiltrative changes in 5 contiguous cervical vertebrae without significant compression fracture or cortical destruction. These MRI findings made it difficult to differentiate between spinal metastasis and infectious spondylodiscitis. Infectious spondylodiscitis such as tuberculous spondylodiscitis was regarded as the more appropriate diagnosis due to the continuous involvement of > 5 cervical vertebrae. The patient's clinical presentation also supported the presumptive diagnosis of infectious spondylodiscitis rather than spinal metastasis. Intravenous antibiotics were administered, but clinical symptoms worsened despite treatment. After pathologic confirmation by computed tomography-guided biopsy, we were able to confirm a final diagnosis of spinal metastasis