WorldWideScience

Sample records for environmental studies uncertainty

  1. Uncertainties in environmental impact assessments due to expert opinion. Case study. Radioactive waste in Slovenia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kontic, B.; Ravnik, M.

    1998-01-01

    A comprehensive study was done at the J. Stefan Institute in Ljubljana and the School of Environmental Sciences in Nova Gorica in relation to sources of uncertainties in long-term environmental impact assessment (EIA). Under the research two main components were examined: first, methodology of the preparation of an EIA, and second validity of an expert opinion. Following the findings of the research a survey was performed in relation to assessing acceptability of radioactive waste repository by the regulatory. The components of dose evaluation in different time frames were examined in terms of susceptibility to uncertainty. Uncertainty associated to human exposure in the far future is so large that dose and risk, as individual numerical indicators of safety, by our opinion, should not be used in compliance assessment for radioactive waste repository. On the other hand, results of the calculations on the amount and activity of low and intermediate level waste and the spent fuel from the Krsko NPP show that expert's understanding of the treated questions can be expressed in transparent way giving credible output of the models used.(author)

  2. Uncertainty analysis of environmental models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monte, L.

    1990-01-01

    In the present paper an evaluation of the output uncertainty of an environmental model for assessing the transfer of 137 Cs and 131 I in the human food chain are carried out on the basis of a statistical analysis of data reported by the literature. The uncertainty analysis offers the oppotunity of obtaining some remarkable information about the uncertainty of models predicting the migration of non radioactive substances in the environment mainly in relation to the dry and wet deposition

  3. Uncertainty quantification for environmental models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Mary C.; Lu, Dan; Kavetski, Dmitri; Clark, Martyn P.; Ye, Ming

    2012-01-01

    Environmental models are used to evaluate the fate of fertilizers in agricultural settings (including soil denitrification), the degradation of hydrocarbons at spill sites, and water supply for people and ecosystems in small to large basins and cities—to mention but a few applications of these models. They also play a role in understanding and diagnosing potential environmental impacts of global climate change. The models are typically mildly to extremely nonlinear. The persistent demand for enhanced dynamics and resolution to improve model realism [17] means that lengthy individual model execution times will remain common, notwithstanding continued enhancements in computer power. In addition, high-dimensional parameter spaces are often defined, which increases the number of model runs required to quantify uncertainty [2]. Some environmental modeling projects have access to extensive funding and computational resources; many do not. The many recent studies of uncertainty quantification in environmental model predictions have focused on uncertainties related to data error and sparsity of data, expert judgment expressed mathematically through prior information, poorly known parameter values, and model structure (see, for example, [1,7,9,10,13,18]). Approaches for quantifying uncertainty include frequentist (potentially with prior information [7,9]), Bayesian [13,18,19], and likelihood-based. A few of the numerous methods, including some sensitivity and inverse methods with consequences for understanding and quantifying uncertainty, are as follows: Bayesian hierarchical modeling and Bayesian model averaging; single-objective optimization with error-based weighting [7] and multi-objective optimization [3]; methods based on local derivatives [2,7,10]; screening methods like OAT (one at a time) and the method of Morris [14]; FAST (Fourier amplitude sensitivity testing) [14]; the Sobol' method [14]; randomized maximum likelihood [10]; Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) [10

  4. Operational Flexibility Responses to Environmental Uncertainties

    OpenAIRE

    Miller, Kent D.

    1994-01-01

    This study develops and tests a behavioral model of organizational changes in operational flexibility. Regression results using an international data set provide strong support for the general proposition that uncertainties associated with different environmental components--poitical, government policy, macroeconomic, competitive, input and product demand uncertainties--have different implications for firm internal, locational, and supploer flexibility. Slack acts as a buffer attenuating, a...

  5. Uncertainty-accounting environmental policy and management of water systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baresel, Christian; Destouni, Georgia

    2007-05-15

    Environmental policies for water quality and ecosystem management do not commonly require explicit stochastic accounts of uncertainty and risk associated with the quantification and prediction of waterborne pollutant loads and abatement effects. In this study, we formulate and investigate a possible environmental policy that does require an explicit stochastic uncertainty account. We compare both the environmental and economic resource allocation performance of such an uncertainty-accounting environmental policy with that of deterministic, risk-prone and risk-averse environmental policies under a range of different hypothetical, yet still possible, scenarios. The comparison indicates that a stochastic uncertainty-accounting policy may perform better than deterministic policies over a range of different scenarios. Even in the absence of reliable site-specific data, reported literature values appear to be useful for such a stochastic account of uncertainty.

  6. Uncertainties of nanotechnology: environmental and health risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delgado Ramos, Giancarlo

    2007-01-01

    The nanotechnology, as any leading edge technology, develops in the border of the unknown thing and, as such, it provokes a degree of uncertainty. On having manipulated the matter to a nanometric scale (thousand millionth of a meter), the potential risks suggest to be not only relatively unpredictable, but also imperceptible to our senses. In such a tenor, evaluating the eventual implications of the nanotechnological progress is a very complex task. And even more if we take into consideration all ethic, legal, socioeconomic, environmental and health issues. The present article evaluates studies and discourses related to promises about the use of nanostructures and their environmental impact. It also treats health impact by evaluating nanotechnology to medicine application, nano make-up and new cancer treatment.

  7. Health, safety and environmental unit performance assessment model under uncertainty (case study: steel industry).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shamaii, Azin; Omidvari, Manouchehr; Lotfi, Farhad Hosseinzadeh

    2017-01-01

    Performance assessment is a critical objective of management systems. As a result of the non-deterministic and qualitative nature of performance indicators, assessments are likely to be influenced by evaluators' personal judgments. Furthermore, in developing countries, performance assessments by the Health, Safety and Environment (HSE) department are based solely on the number of accidents. A questionnaire is used to conduct the study in one of the largest steel production companies in Iran. With respect to health, safety, and environment, the results revealed that control of disease, fire hazards, and air pollution are of paramount importance, with coefficients of 0.057, 0.062, and 0.054, respectively. Furthermore, health and environment indicators were found to be the most common causes of poor performance. Finally, it was shown that HSE management systems can affect the majority of performance safety indicators in the short run, whereas health and environment indicators require longer periods of time. The objective of this study is to present an HSE-MS unit performance assessment model in steel industries. Moreover, we seek to answer the following question: what are the factors that affect HSE unit system in the steel industry? Also, for each factor, the extent of impact on the performance of the HSE management system in the organization is determined.

  8. Quantifying the measurement uncertainty of results from environmental analytical methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moser, J; Wegscheider, W; Sperka-Gottlieb, C

    2001-07-01

    The Eurachem-CITAC Guide Quantifying Uncertainty in Analytical Measurement was put into practice in a public laboratory devoted to environmental analytical measurements. In doing so due regard was given to the provisions of ISO 17025 and an attempt was made to base the entire estimation of measurement uncertainty on available data from the literature or from previously performed validation studies. Most environmental analytical procedures laid down in national or international standards are the result of cooperative efforts and put into effect as part of a compromise between all parties involved, public and private, that also encompasses environmental standards and statutory limits. Central to many procedures is the focus on the measurement of environmental effects rather than on individual chemical species. In this situation it is particularly important to understand the measurement process well enough to produce a realistic uncertainty statement. Environmental analytical methods will be examined as far as necessary, but reference will also be made to analytical methods in general and to physical measurement methods where appropriate. This paper describes ways and means of quantifying uncertainty for frequently practised methods of environmental analysis. It will be shown that operationally defined measurands are no obstacle to the estimation process as described in the Eurachem/CITAC Guide if it is accepted that the dominating component of uncertainty comes from the actual practice of the method as a reproducibility standard deviation.

  9. Uncertainty associated with selected environmental transport models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Little, C.A.; Miller, C.W.

    1979-11-01

    A description is given of the capabilities of several models to predict accurately either pollutant concentrations in environmental media or radiological dose to human organs. The models are discussed in three sections: aquatic or surface water transport models, atmospheric transport models, and terrestrial and aquatic food chain models. Using data published primarily by model users, model predictions are compared to observations. This procedure is infeasible for food chain models and, therefore, the uncertainty embodied in the models input parameters, rather than the model output, is estimated. Aquatic transport models are divided into one-dimensional, longitudinal-vertical, and longitudinal-horizontal models. Several conclusions were made about the ability of the Gaussian plume atmospheric dispersion model to predict accurately downwind air concentrations from releases under several sets of conditions. It is concluded that no validation study has been conducted to test the predictions of either aquatic or terrestrial food chain models. Using the aquatic pathway from water to fish to an adult for 137 Cs as an example, a 95% one-tailed confidence limit interval for the predicted exposure is calculated by examining the distributions of the input parameters. Such an interval is found to be 16 times the value of the median exposure. A similar one-tailed limit for the air-grass-cow-milk-thyroid for 131 I and infants was 5.6 times the median dose. Of the three model types discussed in this report,the aquatic transport models appear to do the best job of predicting observed concentrations. However, this conclusion is based on many fewer aquatic validation data than were availaable for atmospheric model validation

  10. Embracing uncertainties: The paradox of environmental education ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper is a pair of binoculars which I have used to scan the last two years that I have been studying environmental education, the focus being on the research I did on Theatre for Development for environmental education in formal education. The paper aims to bring into view some on the paradoxes of doing ...

  11. Collective behaviour, uncertainty and environmental change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bentley, R Alexander; O'Brien, Michael J

    2015-11-28

    A central aspect of cultural evolutionary theory concerns how human groups respond to environmental change. Although we are painting with a broad brush, it is fair to say that prior to the twenty-first century, adaptation often happened gradually over multiple human generations, through a combination of individual and social learning, cumulative cultural evolution and demographic shifts. The result was a generally resilient and sustainable population. In the twenty-first century, however, considerable change happens within small portions of a human generation, on a vastly larger range of geographical and population scales and involving a greater degree of horizontal learning. As a way of gauging the complexity of societal response to environmental change in a globalized future, we discuss several theoretical tools for understanding how human groups adapt to uncertainty. We use our analysis to estimate the limits of predictability of future societal change, in the belief that knowing when to hedge bets is better than relying on a false sense of predictability. © 2015 The Author(s).

  12. Uncertainty, learning and international environmental policy coordination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ulph, A.; Maddison, D.

    1997-01-01

    In this paper we construct a simple model of global warming which captures a number of key features of the global warming problem: (1) environmental damages are related to the stock of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere; (2) the global commons nature of the problem means that these are strategic interactions between the emissions policies of the governments of individual nation states; (3) there is uncertainty about the extent of the future damages that will be incurred by each country from any given level of concentration of greenhouse gases but there is the possibility that at a future date better information about the true extent of environmental damages may become available; an important aspect of the problem is the extent to which damages in different countries may be correlated. In the first part of the paper we consider a simple model with two symmetric countries and show that the value of perfect information is an increasing function of the correlation between damages in the two countries in both the cooperative and non-cooperative equilibria. However, while the value of perfect information is always non-negative in the cooperative equilibrium, in the non- cooperative equilibrium there is a critical value of the correlation coefficient below which the value of perfect information will be negative. In the second part of the paper we construct an empirical model of global warming distinguishing between OECD and non-OECD countries and show that in the non-cooperative equilibrium the value of perfect information for OECD countries is negative when the correlation coefficient between environmental damages for OECD and non-OECD countries is negative. The implications of these results for international agreements are discussed. 3 tabs., 26 refs

  13. A pseudo-optimal inexact stochastic interval T2 fuzzy sets approach for energy and environmental systems planning under uncertainty: A case study for Xiamen City of China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jin, L.; Huang, G.H.; Fan, Y.R.; Wang, L.; Wu, T.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Propose a new energy PIS-IT2FSLP model for Xiamen City under uncertainties. • Analyze the energy supply, demand, and its flow structure of this city. • Use real energy statistics to prove the superiority of PIS-IT2FSLP method. • Obtain optimal solutions that reflect environmental requirements. • Help local authorities devise an optimal energy strategy for this local area. - Abstract: In this study, a new Pseudo-optimal Inexact Stochastic Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Sets Linear Programming (PIS-IT2FSLP) energy model is developed to support energy system planning and environment requirements under uncertainties for Xiamen City. The PIS-IT2FSLP model is based on an integration of interval Type 2 (T2) Fuzzy Sets (FS) boundary programming and stochastic linear programming techniques, enables it to have robust abilities to the tackle uncertainties expressed as T2 FS intervals and probabilistic distributions within a general optimization framework. This new model can sophisticatedly facilitate system analysis of energy supply and energy conversion processes, and environmental requirements as well as provide capacity expansion options with multiple periods. The PIS-IT2FSLP model was applied to a real case study of Xiamen energy systems. Based on a robust two-step solution algorithm, reasonable solutions have been obtained, which reflect tradeoffs between economic and environmental requirements, and among seasonal volatility energy demands of the right hand side constraints of Xiamen energy system. Thus, the lower and upper solutions of PIS-IT2FSLP would then help local energy authorities adjust current energy patterns, and discover an optimal energy strategy for the development of Xiamen City

  14. Coping with uncertainty in environmental impact assessments: Open techniques

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chivatá Cárdenas, Ibsen; Halman, Johannes I.M.

    2016-01-01

    Uncertainty is virtually unavoidable in environmental impact assessments (EIAs). From the literature related to treating and managing uncertainty, we have identified specific techniques for coping with uncertainty in EIAs. Here, we have focused on basic steps in the decision-making process that take

  15. Treatment and reporting of uncertainties for environmental radiation measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colle, R.

    1980-01-01

    Recommendations for a practical and uniform method for treating and reporting uncertainties in environmental radiation measurements data are presented. The method requires that each reported measurement result include the value, a total propagated random uncertainty expressed as the standard deviation, and a combined overall uncertainty. The uncertainty assessment should be based on as nearly a complete assessment as possible and should include every conceivable or likely source of inaccuracy in the result. Guidelines are given for estimating random and systematic uncertainty components, and for propagating and combining them to form an overall uncertainty

  16. Report of Policy Laboratory Session on Uncertainty Information in the Dutch Environmental Balance 2005

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kloprogge, P.; Van der Sluijs, J.P.

    2005-06-01

    In 2003 recommendations were formulated how to deal with uncertainties in scientific studies. Currently a so-called 'Styleguide for Uncertainty Communication' is under development to report on information about uncertainties. The guide is based on literature survey and knowledge from experts in the field. Also a few communication experiments were carried out in a laboratory environment, focusing on the uncertainties in the information, presented in the Dutch Environmental Balance 2005 study [nl

  17. Dealing with uncertainties in environmental burden of disease assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    van der Sluijs Jeroen P

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs combine the number of people affected by disease or mortality in a population and the duration and severity of their condition into one number. The environmental burden of disease is the number of DALYs that can be attributed to environmental factors. Environmental burden of disease estimates enable policy makers to evaluate, compare and prioritize dissimilar environmental health problems or interventions. These estimates often have various uncertainties and assumptions which are not always made explicit. Besides statistical uncertainty in input data and parameters – which is commonly addressed – a variety of other types of uncertainties may substantially influence the results of the assessment. We have reviewed how different types of uncertainties affect environmental burden of disease assessments, and we give suggestions as to how researchers could address these uncertainties. We propose the use of an uncertainty typology to identify and characterize uncertainties. Finally, we argue that uncertainties need to be identified, assessed, reported and interpreted in order for assessment results to adequately support decision making.

  18. Uncertainty communication in the Environmental Balance 2005. Results of the User Group Policy Makers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wardekker, J.A.; Van der Sluijs, J.P.; Janssen, P.H.M.

    2006-02-01

    In 2003 recommendations were formulated how to deal with uncertainties in scientific studies. Currently a so-called 'Styleguide for Uncertainty Communication' is under development to report on information about uncertainties. The guide is based on literature survey and knowledge from experts in the field. A group of users of the Dutch Environmental Balance 2005 was set up to communicate and inform about uncertainties with respect to the Balance [nl

  19. A study on antimony determination in environmental samples by neutron activation analysis: validation of the methodology and determination of the uncertainty of the measurement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsubara, Tassiane Cristina Martins

    2011-01-01

    detection. The analysis of CRM indicated that the accuracy and precision of the results depend on the type of matrix analyzed, its concentration in the sample, radioisotope measured and of the decay time used for the measurements. The analysis of the components that contribute to the uncertainty of the Sb concentration indicated that the largest uncertainty contribution is given by statistical counting of the sample. The findings also showed that the value of combined standard uncertainty depends on the radioisotopes of Sb measured and the decay time used for counting. This study showed that NAA is a very adequate method for Sb determinations in environmental samples furnishing results with low uncertainty values. (author)

  20. Avoiding climate change uncertainties in Strategic Environmental Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen; Kørnøv, Lone; Driscoll, Patrick Arthur

    2013-01-01

    This article is concerned with how Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) practice handles climate change uncertainties within the Danish planning system. First, a hypothetical model is set up for how uncertainty is handled and not handled in decision-making. The model incorporates the strategies...

  1. Evaluation of uncertainties in benefit-cost studies of electrical power plants. II. Development and application of a procedure for quantifying environmental uncertainties of a nuclear power plant. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sullivan, W.G.

    1977-07-01

    Steam-electric generation plants are evaluated on a benefit-cost basis. Non-economic factors in the development and application of a procedure for quantifying environmental uncertainties of a nuclear power plant are discussed. By comparing monetary costs of a particular power plant assessed in Part 1 with non-monetary values arrived at in Part 2 and using an evaluation procedure developed in this study, a proposed power plant can be selected as a preferred alternative. This procedure enables policymakers to identify the incremental advantages and disadvantages of different power plants in view of their geographic locations. The report presents the evaluation procedure on a task by task basis and shows how it can be applied to a particular power plant. Because of the lack of objective data, it draws heavily on subjectively-derived inputs of individuals who are knowledgeable about the plant being investigated. An abbreviated study at another power plant demonstrated the transferability of the general evaluation procedure. Included in the appendices are techniques for developing scoring functions and a user's manual for the Fortran IV Program

  2. embracing uncertainties: the paradox of environmental education ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    intellectual thought. I ask whether a critical approach to environmental education can exist within the current .... us free, give us a better life, a better job, a better world. Orr (1990, 351) .... although participatory, (in the sense that everyone was.

  3. embracing uncertainties: the paradox of environmental education

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    intellectual thought. I ask whether a critical approach to environmental education can exist within the current ... modern intellectual movement, identified by Bubules, surfacing. ..... traditional values and principles and this pattern of power is not ...

  4. Investigating the Effect of Environmental Uncertainty on the Selection of Knowledge Management Strategies in the Field of Product (Case Study: Universities and Higher Educational Institutes in Khorasan-e-Razavi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alireza Bafandeh Zendeh

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated the effect of environmental uncertainty on the selection of knowledge management strategies in the domain of product. However we investigated the effect of environmental uncertainty on the selection of knowledge detection strategies and knowledge revenue by testing three hypotheses. The statistical universe included chancellors and assistants of universities of Khorasan-e-Razavi that 28 universities and 48 repliers were selected as the sample of study. This study with the view of quarry was sort in applied researches and with the view of method was sort in causal researches. Hypotheses were tested by using regression model and results showed that environmental uncertainty had positive impact on knowledge detection strategies and knowledge revenue in domain of product. Also results cleared the role of knowledge management strategies in the domain of product and prepared perspectives to chancellors of universities to improve their education and research

  5. Environmental studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohd Tadza Abd Rahman

    2003-01-01

    Nuclear Technology offers unique method, yet effective for environmental research. Nuclear techniques are invented to carry out research activities on environmental pollutions, erosion and slope stability, landslide ground water studies and water pollution

  6. Avoiding climate change uncertainties in Strategic Environmental Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen, E-mail: sannevl@plan.aau.dk [The Danish Centre for Environmental Assessment, Aalborg University-Copenhagen, A.C. Meyers Vænge 15, 2450 København SV (Denmark); Kørnøv, Lone, E-mail: lonek@plan.aau.dk [The Danish Centre for Environmental Assessment, Aalborg University, Skibbrogade 5, 1. Sal, 9000 Aalborg (Denmark); Driscoll, Patrick, E-mail: patrick@plan.aau.dk [The Danish Centre for Environmental Assessment, Aalborg University-Copenhagen, A.C. Meyers Vænge 15, 2450 København SV (Denmark)

    2013-11-15

    This article is concerned with how Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) practice handles climate change uncertainties within the Danish planning system. First, a hypothetical model is set up for how uncertainty is handled and not handled in decision-making. The model incorporates the strategies ‘reduction’ and ‘resilience’, ‘denying’, ‘ignoring’ and ‘postponing’. Second, 151 Danish SEAs are analysed with a focus on the extent to which climate change uncertainties are acknowledged and presented, and the empirical findings are discussed in relation to the model. The findings indicate that despite incentives to do so, climate change uncertainties were systematically avoided or downplayed in all but 5 of the 151 SEAs that were reviewed. Finally, two possible explanatory mechanisms are proposed to explain this: conflict avoidance and a need to quantify uncertainty.

  7. Avoiding climate change uncertainties in Strategic Environmental Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen; Kørnøv, Lone; Driscoll, Patrick

    2013-01-01

    This article is concerned with how Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) practice handles climate change uncertainties within the Danish planning system. First, a hypothetical model is set up for how uncertainty is handled and not handled in decision-making. The model incorporates the strategies ‘reduction’ and ‘resilience’, ‘denying’, ‘ignoring’ and ‘postponing’. Second, 151 Danish SEAs are analysed with a focus on the extent to which climate change uncertainties are acknowledged and presented, and the empirical findings are discussed in relation to the model. The findings indicate that despite incentives to do so, climate change uncertainties were systematically avoided or downplayed in all but 5 of the 151 SEAs that were reviewed. Finally, two possible explanatory mechanisms are proposed to explain this: conflict avoidance and a need to quantify uncertainty

  8. Uncertainty related to Environmental Data and Estimated Extreme Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Burcharth, H. F.

    The design loads on rubble mound breakwaters are almost entirely determined by the environmental conditions, i.e. sea state, water levels, sea bed characteristics, etc. It is the objective of sub-group B to identify the most important environmental parameters and evaluate the related uncertainties...... including those corresponding to extreme estimates typically used for design purposes. Basically a design condition is made up of a set of parameter values stemming from several environmental parameters. To be able to evaluate the uncertainty related to design states one must know the corresponding joint....... Consequently this report deals mainly with each parameter separately. Multi parameter problems are briefly discussed in section 9. It is important to notice that the quantified uncertainties reported in section 7.7 represent what might be regarded as typical figures to be used only when no more qualified...

  9. Coping with uncertainty in environmental impact assessments: Open techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cardenas, Ibsen C., E-mail: c.cardenas@utwente.nl [IceBridge Research Institutea, Universiteit Twente, P.O. Box 217, 7500 AE Enschede (Netherlands); Halman, Johannes I.M., E-mail: J.I.M.Halman@utwente.nl [Universiteit Twente, P.O. Box 217, 7500 AE Enschede (Netherlands)

    2016-09-15

    Uncertainty is virtually unavoidable in environmental impact assessments (EIAs). From the literature related to treating and managing uncertainty, we have identified specific techniques for coping with uncertainty in EIAs. Here, we have focused on basic steps in the decision-making process that take place within an EIA setting. More specifically, we have identified uncertainties involved in each decision-making step and discussed the extent to which these can be treated and managed in the context of an activity or project that may have environmental impacts. To further demonstrate the relevance of the techniques identified, we have examined the extent to which the EIA guidelines currently used in Colombia consider and provide guidance on managing the uncertainty involved in these assessments. Some points that should be considered in order to provide greater robustness in impact assessments in Colombia have been identified. These include the management of stakeholder values, the systematic generation of project options, and their associated impacts as well as the associated management actions, and the evaluation of uncertainties and assumptions. We believe that the relevant and specific techniques reported here can be a reference for future evaluations of other EIA guidelines in different countries. - Highlights: • uncertainty is unavoidable in environmental impact assessments, EIAs; • we have identified some open techniques to EIAs for treating and managing uncertainty in these assessments; • points for improvement that should be considered in order to provide greater robustness in EIAs in Colombia have been identified; • the paper provides substantiated a reference for possible examinations of EIAs guidelines in other countries.

  10. Coping with uncertainty in environmental impact assessments: Open techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cardenas, Ibsen C.; Halman, Johannes I.M.

    2016-01-01

    Uncertainty is virtually unavoidable in environmental impact assessments (EIAs). From the literature related to treating and managing uncertainty, we have identified specific techniques for coping with uncertainty in EIAs. Here, we have focused on basic steps in the decision-making process that take place within an EIA setting. More specifically, we have identified uncertainties involved in each decision-making step and discussed the extent to which these can be treated and managed in the context of an activity or project that may have environmental impacts. To further demonstrate the relevance of the techniques identified, we have examined the extent to which the EIA guidelines currently used in Colombia consider and provide guidance on managing the uncertainty involved in these assessments. Some points that should be considered in order to provide greater robustness in impact assessments in Colombia have been identified. These include the management of stakeholder values, the systematic generation of project options, and their associated impacts as well as the associated management actions, and the evaluation of uncertainties and assumptions. We believe that the relevant and specific techniques reported here can be a reference for future evaluations of other EIA guidelines in different countries. - Highlights: • uncertainty is unavoidable in environmental impact assessments, EIAs; • we have identified some open techniques to EIAs for treating and managing uncertainty in these assessments; • points for improvement that should be considered in order to provide greater robustness in EIAs in Colombia have been identified; • the paper provides substantiated a reference for possible examinations of EIAs guidelines in other countries.

  11. Where do uncertainties reside within environmental risk assessments? Expert opinion on uncertainty distributions for pesticide risks to surface water organisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skinner, Daniel J C; Rocks, Sophie A; Pollard, Simon J T

    2016-12-01

    A reliable characterisation of uncertainties can aid uncertainty identification during environmental risk assessments (ERAs). However, typologies can be implemented inconsistently, causing uncertainties to go unidentified. We present an approach based on nine structured elicitations, in which subject-matter experts, for pesticide risks to surface water organisms, validate and assess three dimensions of uncertainty: its level (the severity of uncertainty, ranging from determinism to ignorance); nature (whether the uncertainty is epistemic or aleatory); and location (the data source or area in which the uncertainty arises). Risk characterisation contains the highest median levels of uncertainty, associated with estimating, aggregating and evaluating the magnitude of risks. Regarding the locations in which uncertainty is manifest, data uncertainty is dominant in problem formulation, exposure assessment and effects assessment. The comprehensive description of uncertainty described will enable risk analysts to prioritise the required phases, groups of tasks, or individual tasks within a risk analysis according to the highest levels of uncertainty, the potential for uncertainty to be reduced or quantified, or the types of location-based uncertainty, thus aiding uncertainty prioritisation during environmental risk assessments. In turn, it is expected to inform investment in uncertainty reduction or targeted risk management action. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Evaluation of the uncertainty of environmental measurements of radioactivity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heydorn, K.

    2003-01-01

    Full text: The almost universal acceptance of the concept of uncertainty has led to its introduction into the ISO 17025 standard for general requirements to testing and calibration laboratories. This means that not only scientists, but also legislators, politicians, the general population - and perhaps even the press - expect to see all future results associated with an expression of their uncertainty. Results obtained by measurement of radioactivity have routinely been associated with an expression of their uncertainty, based on the so-called counting statistics. This is calculated together with the actual result on the assumption that the number of counts observed has a Poisson distribution with equal mean and variance. Most of the nuclear scientific community has therefore assumed that it already complied with the latest ISO 17025 requirements. Counting statistics, however, express only the variability observed among repeated measurements of the same sample under the same counting conditions, which is equivalent to the term repeatability used in quantitative analysis. Many other sources of uncertainty need to be taken into account before a statement of the uncertainty of the actual result can be made. As the first link in the traceability chain calibration is always an important uncertainty component in any kind of measurement. For radioactivity measurements in particular we find that counting geometry assumes the greatest importance, because it is often not possible to measure a standard and a control sample under exactly the same conditions. In the case of large samples we have additional uncertainty components associated with sample heterogeneity and its influence on self-absorption and counting efficiency. In low-level environmental measurements we have an additional risk of sample contamination, but the most important contribution to uncertainty is usually the representativity of the sample being analysed. For uniform materials this can be expressed by the

  13. Davis-Besse uncertainty study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, C.B.

    1987-08-01

    The uncertainties of calculations of loss-of-feedwater transients at Davis-Besse Unit 1 were determined to address concerns of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission relative to the effectiveness of feed and bleed cooling. Davis-Besse Unit 1 is a pressurized water reactor of the raised-loop Babcock and Wilcox design. A detailed, quality-assured RELAP5/MOD2 model of Davis-Besse was developed at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. The model was used to perform an analysis of the loss-of-feedwater transient that occurred at Davis-Besse on June 9, 1985. A loss-of-feedwater transient followed by feed and bleed cooling was also calculated. The evaluation of uncertainty was based on the comparisons of calculations and data, comparisons of different calculations of the same transient, sensitivity calculations, and the propagation of the estimated uncertainty in initial and boundary conditions to the final calculated results

  14. Uncertainties in environmental radiological assessment models and their implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoffman, F.O.; Miller, C.W.

    1983-01-01

    Environmental radiological assessments rely heavily on the use of mathematical models. The predictions of these models are inherently uncertain because these models are inexact representations of real systems. The major sources of this uncertainty are related to biases in model formulation and parameter estimation. The best approach for estimating the actual extent of over- or underprediction is model validation, a procedure that requires testing over the range of the intended realm of model application. Other approaches discussed are the use of screening procedures, sensitivity and stochastic analyses, and model comparison. The magnitude of uncertainty in model predictions is a function of the questions asked of the model and the specific radionuclides and exposure pathways of dominant importance. Estimates are made of the relative magnitude of uncertainty for situations requiring predictions of individual and collective risks for both chronic and acute releases of radionuclides. It is concluded that models developed as research tools should be distinguished from models developed for assessment applications. Furthermore, increased model complexity does not necessarily guarantee increased accuracy. To improve the realism of assessment modeling, stochastic procedures are recommended that translate uncertain parameter estimates into a distribution of predicted values. These procedures also permit the importance of model parameters to be ranked according to their relative contribution to the overall predicted uncertainty. Although confidence in model predictions can be improved through site-specific parameter estimation and increased model validation, risk factors and internal dosimetry models will probably remain important contributors to the amount of uncertainty that is irreducible

  15. Approaches to handling uncertainty when setting environmental exposure standards

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Budtz-Jørgensen, Esben; Keiding, Niels; Grandjean, Philippe

    2009-01-01

    attempts for the first time to cover the full range of issues related to model uncertainties, from the subjectivity of setting up a conceptual model of a given system, all the way to communicating the nature of model uncertainties to non-scientists and accounting for model uncertainties in policy decisions....... Theoretical chapters, providing background information on specific steps in the modelling process and in the adoption of models by end-users, are complemented by illustrative case studies dealing with soils and global climate change. All the chapters are authored by recognized experts in their respective...

  16. Environmental policy and environment-saving technologies. Economic aspects of policy making under uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ossokina, I.

    2003-07-01

    It is generally known that natural environment is profoundly influenced by technological change. The direction and the size of this influence are, however, surrounded by uncertainties, which substantially complicate environmental policy making. This dissertation uses game-theoretical models to study policy making under uncertainty about (a) the costs of technological advances in pollution control, (b) the preferences of the policy maker and the voters, and (c) the consequences of policy measures. From a positive point of view the analysis provides explanations for environmental policies in modern democracies. From a normative point of view it gives a number of recommendations to improve environmental policies.

  17. Visual Semiotics & Uncertainty Visualization: An Empirical Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacEachren, A M; Roth, R E; O'Brien, J; Li, B; Swingley, D; Gahegan, M

    2012-12-01

    This paper presents two linked empirical studies focused on uncertainty visualization. The experiments are framed from two conceptual perspectives. First, a typology of uncertainty is used to delineate kinds of uncertainty matched with space, time, and attribute components of data. Second, concepts from visual semiotics are applied to characterize the kind of visual signification that is appropriate for representing those different categories of uncertainty. This framework guided the two experiments reported here. The first addresses representation intuitiveness, considering both visual variables and iconicity of representation. The second addresses relative performance of the most intuitive abstract and iconic representations of uncertainty on a map reading task. Combined results suggest initial guidelines for representing uncertainty and discussion focuses on practical applicability of results.

  18. Report on the uncertainty methods study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-06-01

    The Uncertainty Methods Study (UMS) Group, following a mandate from CSNI, has compared five methods for calculating the uncertainty in the predictions of advanced 'best estimate' thermal-hydraulic codes: the Pisa method (based on extrapolation from integral experiments) and four methods identifying and combining input uncertainties. Three of these, the GRS, IPSN and ENUSA methods, use subjective probability distributions, and one, the AEAT method, performs a bounding analysis. Each method has been used to calculate the uncertainty in specified parameters for the LSTF SB-CL-18 5% cold leg small break LOCA experiment in the ROSA-IV Large Scale Test Facility (LSTF). The uncertainty analysis was conducted essentially blind and the participants did not use experimental measurements from the test as input apart from initial and boundary conditions. Participants calculated uncertainty ranges for experimental parameters including pressurizer pressure, primary circuit inventory and clad temperature (at a specified position) as functions of time

  19. An introductory guide to uncertainty analysis in environmental and health risk assessment. Environmental Restoration Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hammonds, J.S.; Hoffman, F.O.; Bartell, S.M.

    1994-12-01

    This report presents guidelines for evaluating uncertainty in mathematical equations and computer models applied to assess human health and environmental risk. Uncertainty analyses involve the propagation of uncertainty in model parameters and model structure to obtain confidence statements for the estimate of risk and identify the model components of dominant importance. Uncertainty analyses are required when there is no a priori knowledge about uncertainty in the risk estimate and when there is a chance that the failure to assess uncertainty may affect the selection of wrong options for risk reduction. Uncertainty analyses are effective when they are conducted in an iterative mode. When the uncertainty in the risk estimate is intolerable for decision-making, additional data are acquired for the dominant model components that contribute most to uncertainty. This process is repeated until the level of residual uncertainty can be tolerated. A analytical and numerical methods for error propagation are presented along with methods for identifying the most important contributors to uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulation with either Simple Random Sampling (SRS) or Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) is proposed as the most robust method for propagating uncertainty through either simple or complex models. A distinction is made between simulating a stochastically varying assessment endpoint (i.e., the distribution of individual risks in an exposed population) and quantifying uncertainty due to lack of knowledge about a fixed but unknown quantity (e.g., a specific individual, the maximally exposed individual, or the mean, median, or 95%-tile of the distribution of exposed individuals). Emphasis is placed on the need for subjective judgement to quantify uncertainty when relevant data are absent or incomplete

  20. Robust environmental closed-loop supply chain design under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MA, Ruimin; YAO, Lifei; JIN, Maozhu; REN, Peiyu; LV, Zhihan

    2016-01-01

    With the fast developments in product remanufacturing to improve economic and environmental performance, an environmental closed-loop supply (ECLSC) chain is important for enterprises' competitiveness. In this paper, a robust ECLSC network is investigated which includes multiple plants, collection centers, demand zones, and products, and consists of both forward and reverse supply chains. First, a robust multi-objective mixed integer nonlinear programming model is proposed to deal with ECLSC considering two conflicting objectives simultaneously, as well as the uncertain nature of the supply chain. Cost parameters of the supply chain and demand fluctuations are subject to uncertainty. The first objective function aims to minimize the economical cost and the second objective function is to minimize the environmental influence. Then, the proposed model is solved as a single-objective mixed integer programming model applying the LP-metrics method. Finally, numerical example has been presented to test the model. The results indicate that the proposed model is applicable in practice.

  1. Modeling for waste management associated with environmental-impact abatement under uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, P; Li, Y P; Huang, G H; Zhang, J L

    2015-04-01

    Municipal solid waste (MSW) treatment can generate significant amounts of pollutants, and thus pose a risk on human health. Besides, in MSW management, various uncertainties exist in the related costs, impact factors, and objectives, which can affect the optimization processes and the decision schemes generated. In this study, a life cycle assessment-based interval-parameter programming (LCA-IPP) method is developed for MSW management associated with environmental-impact abatement under uncertainty. The LCA-IPP can effectively examine the environmental consequences based on a number of environmental impact categories (i.e., greenhouse gas equivalent, acid gas emissions, and respiratory inorganics), through analyzing each life cycle stage and/or major contributing process related to various MSW management activities. It can also tackle uncertainties existed in the related costs, impact factors, and objectives and expressed as interval numbers. Then, the LCA-IPP method is applied to MSW management for the City of Beijing, the capital of China, where energy consumptions and six environmental parameters [i.e., CO2, CO, CH4, NOX, SO2, inhalable particle (PM10)] are used as systematic tool to quantify environmental releases in entire life cycle stage of waste collection, transportation, treatment, and disposal of. Results associated with system cost, environmental impact, and the related policy implication are generated and analyzed. Results can help identify desired alternatives for managing MSW flows, which has advantages in providing compromised schemes under an integrated consideration of economic efficiency and environmental impact under uncertainty.

  2. Evaluation of uncertainties in selected environmental dispersion models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Little, C.A.; Miller, C.W.

    1979-01-01

    Compliance with standards of radiation dose to the general public has necessitated the use of dispersion models to predict radionuclide concentrations in the environment due to releases from nuclear facilities. Because these models are only approximations of reality and because of inherent variations in the input parameters used in these models, their predictions are subject to uncertainty. Quantification of this uncertainty is necessary to assess the adequacy of these models for use in determining compliance with protection standards. This paper characterizes the capabilities of several dispersion models to predict accurately pollutant concentrations in environmental media. Three types of models are discussed: aquatic or surface water transport models, atmospheric transport models, and terrestrial and aquatic food chain models. Using data published primarily by model users, model predictions are compared to observations

  3. Anger and retribution after collective overuse: the role of blaming and environmental uncertainty in social dilemmas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Kwaadsteniet, Erik W; van Dijk, Eric; Wit, Arjaan; De Cremer, David

    2010-01-01

    This article investigates how group members respond to one another when collective overuse occurs. The authors argue that interpersonal reactions after overuse in a common-resource dilemma are largely determined by the environmental characteristics of the social dilemma. More specifically, under environmental certainty they expect people to show more anger to group members than under uncertainty (Study 1). Additionally, they expect stronger retributive reactions to high harvesters than to moderate harvesters, and they expect this difference to be larger under certainty than under uncertainty (Study 2 and 3). Moreover, they predict that these effects are mediated by blaming. The results of three experiments corroborate these predictions.

  4. Uncertainty analysis and validation of environmental models. The empirically based uncertainty analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monte, Luigi; Hakanson, Lars; Bergstroem, Ulla; Brittain, John; Heling, Rudie

    1996-01-01

    The principles of Empirically Based Uncertainty Analysis (EBUA) are described. EBUA is based on the evaluation of 'performance indices' that express the level of agreement between the model and sets of empirical independent data collected in different experimental circumstances. Some of these indices may be used to evaluate the confidence limits of the model output. The method is based on the statistical analysis of the distribution of the index values and on the quantitative relationship of these values with the ratio 'experimental data/model output'. Some performance indices are described in the present paper. Among these, the so-called 'functional distance' (d) between the logarithm of model output and the logarithm of the experimental data, defined as d 2 =Σ n 1 ( ln M i - ln O i ) 2 /n where M i is the i-th experimental value, O i the corresponding model evaluation and n the number of the couplets 'experimental value, predicted value', is an important tool for the EBUA method. From the statistical distribution of this performance index, it is possible to infer the characteristics of the distribution of the ratio 'experimental data/model output' and, consequently to evaluate the confidence limits for the model predictions. This method was applied to calculate the uncertainty level of a model developed to predict the migration of radiocaesium in lacustrine systems. Unfortunately, performance indices are affected by the uncertainty of the experimental data used in validation. Indeed, measurement results of environmental levels of contamination are generally associated with large uncertainty due to the measurement and sampling techniques and to the large variability in space and time of the measured quantities. It is demonstrated that this non-desired effect, in some circumstances, may be corrected by means of simple formulae

  5. A python framework for environmental model uncertainty analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Jeremy; Fienen, Michael N.; Doherty, John E.

    2016-01-01

    We have developed pyEMU, a python framework for Environmental Modeling Uncertainty analyses, open-source tool that is non-intrusive, easy-to-use, computationally efficient, and scalable to highly-parameterized inverse problems. The framework implements several types of linear (first-order, second-moment (FOSM)) and non-linear uncertainty analyses. The FOSM-based analyses can also be completed prior to parameter estimation to help inform important modeling decisions, such as parameterization and objective function formulation. Complete workflows for several types of FOSM-based and non-linear analyses are documented in example notebooks implemented using Jupyter that are available in the online pyEMU repository. Example workflows include basic parameter and forecast analyses, data worth analyses, and error-variance analyses, as well as usage of parameter ensemble generation and management capabilities. These workflows document the necessary steps and provides insights into the results, with the goal of educating users not only in how to apply pyEMU, but also in the underlying theory of applied uncertainty quantification.

  6. Stochastic fuzzy environmental risk characterization of uncertainty and variability in risk assessments: A case study of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in soil at a petroleum-contaminated site in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu, Yan; Wang, Zesen; Wen, Jingya; Li, Yu

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Deal with environmental quality guidelines absence in risk characterization. • Quantitative represention of uncertainty from environmental quality guidelines. • Quantitative represention of variability from contaminant exposure concentrations. • Establishment of stochastic-fuzzy environmental risk characterization approach framework. - Abstract: Better decisions are made using risk assessment models when uncertainty and variability are explicitly acknowledged. Uncertainty caused by a lack of uniform and scientifically supported environmental quality guidelines and variability in the degree of exposure of environmental systems to contaminants are here incorporated in a stochastic fuzzy environmental risk characterization (SFERC) approach. The approach is based on quotient probability distribution and environmental risk level fuzzy membership function methods. The SFERC framework was used to characterize the environmental risks posed by 16 priority polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in soil at a typical petroleum-contaminated site in China. This relied on integrating data from the literature and field and laboratory experiments. The environmental risk levels posed by the PAHs under four risk scenarios were determined using the SFERC approach, using “residential land” and “industrial land” environmental quality guidelines under “loose” and “strict” strictness parameters. The results showed that environmental risks posed by PAHs in soil are primarily caused by oil exploitation, traffic emissions, and coal combustion. The SFERC approach is an effective tool for characterizing uncertainty and variability in environmental risk assessments and for managing contaminated sites.

  7. Stochastic fuzzy environmental risk characterization of uncertainty and variability in risk assessments: A case study of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in soil at a petroleum-contaminated site in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu, Yan [MOE Key Laboratory of Regional Energy Systems Optimization, Resources and Environmental Research Academy, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206 (China); State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, Chinese Research Academy of Environment Sciences, Beijing 100012 (China); Wang, Zesen [MOE Key Laboratory of Regional Energy Systems Optimization, Resources and Environmental Research Academy, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206 (China); Wen, Jingya [MOE Key Laboratory of Regional Energy Systems Optimization, Resources and Environmental Research Academy, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206 (China); Institute of Hydropower and Environment Research, Beijing 100012 (China); Li, Yu, E-mail: liyuxx8@hotmail.com [MOE Key Laboratory of Regional Energy Systems Optimization, Resources and Environmental Research Academy, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206 (China)

    2016-10-05

    Highlights: • Deal with environmental quality guidelines absence in risk characterization. • Quantitative represention of uncertainty from environmental quality guidelines. • Quantitative represention of variability from contaminant exposure concentrations. • Establishment of stochastic-fuzzy environmental risk characterization approach framework. - Abstract: Better decisions are made using risk assessment models when uncertainty and variability are explicitly acknowledged. Uncertainty caused by a lack of uniform and scientifically supported environmental quality guidelines and variability in the degree of exposure of environmental systems to contaminants are here incorporated in a stochastic fuzzy environmental risk characterization (SFERC) approach. The approach is based on quotient probability distribution and environmental risk level fuzzy membership function methods. The SFERC framework was used to characterize the environmental risks posed by 16 priority polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in soil at a typical petroleum-contaminated site in China. This relied on integrating data from the literature and field and laboratory experiments. The environmental risk levels posed by the PAHs under four risk scenarios were determined using the SFERC approach, using “residential land” and “industrial land” environmental quality guidelines under “loose” and “strict” strictness parameters. The results showed that environmental risks posed by PAHs in soil are primarily caused by oil exploitation, traffic emissions, and coal combustion. The SFERC approach is an effective tool for characterizing uncertainty and variability in environmental risk assessments and for managing contaminated sites.

  8. Economic–Environmental Sustainability in Building Projects: Introducing Risk and Uncertainty in LCCE and LCCA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Fregonara

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to propose a methodology for supporting decision-making in the design stages of new buildings or in the retrofitting of existing heritages. The focus is on the evaluation of economic–environmental sustainability, considering the presence of risk and uncertainty. An application of risk analysis in conjunction with Life-Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA is proposed for selecting the preferable solution between technological options, which represents a recent and poorly explored context of analysis. It is assumed that there is a presence of uncertainty in cost estimating, in terms of the Life-Cycle Cost Estimates (LCCEs and uncertainty in the technical performance of the life-cycle cost analysis. According to the probability analysis, which was solved through stochastic simulation and the Monte Carlo Method (MCM, risk and uncertainty are modeled as stochastic variables or as “stochastic relevant cost drivers”. Coherently, the economic–financial and energy–environmental sustainability is analyzed through the calculation of a conjoint “economic–environmental indicator”, in terms of the stochastic global cost. A case study of the multifunctional building glass façade project in Northern Italy is proposed. The application demonstrates that introducing flexibility into the input data and the duration of the service lives of components and the economic and environmental behavior of alternative scenarios can lead to opposite results compared to a deterministic analysis. The results give full evidence of the environmental variables’ capacity to significantly perturb the model output.

  9. Policy uncertainty and corporate performance in government-sponsored voluntary environmental programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ning; Tang, Shui-Yan; Zhan, Xueyong; Lo, Carlos Wing-Hung

    2018-08-01

    This study combines insights from the policy uncertainty literature and neo-institutional theory to examine corporate performance in implementing a government-sponsored voluntary environmental program (VEP) during 2004-2012 in Guangzhou, China. In this regulatory context, characterized by rapid policy changes, corporate performance in VEPs is affected by government surveillance, policy uncertainty, and peer pressures. Specifically, if VEP participants have experienced more government surveillance, they tend to perform better in program implementation. Such positive influence of government surveillance is particularly evident among those joining under high and low, rather than moderate uncertainty. Participants also perform better if they belong to an industry with more certified VEP firms, but worse if they are located in a regulatory jurisdiction with more certified VEP firms. At a moderate level of policy uncertainty, within-industry imitation is most likely to occur but within-jurisdiction imitation is least likely to occur. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. [Status Quo, Uncertainties and Trends Analysis of Environmental Risk Assessment for PFASs].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Xue-wen; Li, Li; Wang, Jie; Cao, Yan; Liu, Jian-guo

    2015-08-01

    This study systematically combed the definition and change of terms, category and application of perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) in international academic, focusing on the environmental risk and exposure assessment of PFASs, to comprehensively analyze the current status, uncertainties and trends of PFASs' environmental risk assessment. Overall, the risk assessment of PFASs is facing a complicated situation involving complex substance pedigrees, various types, complex derivative relations, confidential business information and risk uncertainties. Although the environmental risk of long-chain PFASs has been widely recognized, the short-chain PFASs and short-chain fluorotelomers as their alternatives still have many research gaps and uncertainties in environmental hazards, environmental fate and exposure risk. The scope of risk control of PFASs in the international community is still worth discussing. Due to trade secrets and market competition, the chemical structure and risk information of PFASs' alternatives are generally lack of openness and transparency. The environmental risk of most fluorinated and non-fluorinated alternatives is not clear. In total, the international research on PFASs risk assessment gradually transfer from long-chain perfluoroalkyl acids (PFAAs) represented by perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS) and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) to short-chain PFAAs, and then extends to other PFASs. The main problems to be solved urgently and researched continuously are: the environmental hazardous assessment indexes, such as bioaccumulation and environmental migration, optimization method, the environmental release and multimedia environmental fate of short-chain PFASs; the environmental fate of neutral PFASs and the transformation and contribution as precursors of short-chain PFASs; the risk identification and assessment of fluorinated and non-fluorinated alternatives of PFASs.

  11. Parameter uncertainty in CGE Modeling of the environmental impacts of economic policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abler, D.G.; Shortle, J.S. [Agricultural Economics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA (United States); Rodriguez, A.G. [University of Costa Rica, San Jose (Costa Rica)

    1999-07-01

    This study explores the role of parameter uncertainty in Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modeling of the environmental impacts of macroeconomic and sectoral policies, using Costa Rica as a case for study. A CGE model is constructed which includes eight environmental indicators covering deforestation, pesticides, overfishing, hazardous wastes, inorganic wastes, organic wastes, greenhouse gases, and air pollution. The parameters are treated as random variables drawn from prespecified distributions. Evaluation of each policy option consists of a Monte Carlo experiment. The impacts of the policy options on the environmental indicators are relatively robust to different parameter values, in spite of the wide range of parameter values employed. 33 refs.

  12. Parameter uncertainty in CGE Modeling of the environmental impacts of economic policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abler, D.G.; Shortle, J.S.; Rodriguez, A.G.

    1999-01-01

    This study explores the role of parameter uncertainty in Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modeling of the environmental impacts of macroeconomic and sectoral policies, using Costa Rica as a case for study. A CGE model is constructed which includes eight environmental indicators covering deforestation, pesticides, overfishing, hazardous wastes, inorganic wastes, organic wastes, greenhouse gases, and air pollution. The parameters are treated as random variables drawn from prespecified distributions. Evaluation of each policy option consists of a Monte Carlo experiment. The impacts of the policy options on the environmental indicators are relatively robust to different parameter values, in spite of the wide range of parameter values employed. 33 refs

  13. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of environmental transport models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Margulies, T.S.; Lancaster, L.E.

    1985-01-01

    An uncertainty and sensitivity analysis has been made of the CRAC-2 (Calculations of Reactor Accident Consequences) atmospheric transport and deposition models. Robustness and uncertainty aspects of air and ground deposited material and the relative contribution of input and model parameters were systematically studied. The underlying data structures were investigated using a multiway layout of factors over specified ranges generated via a Latin hypercube sampling scheme. The variables selected in our analysis include: weather bin, dry deposition velocity, rain washout coefficient/rain intensity, duration of release, heat content, sigma-z (vertical) plume dispersion parameter, sigma-y (crosswind) plume dispersion parameter, and mixing height. To determine the contributors to the output variability (versus distance from the site) step-wise regression analyses were performed on transformations of the spatial concentration patterns simulated. 27 references, 2 figures, 3 tables

  14. Review of studies related to uncertainty in risk analsis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rish, W.R.; Marnicio, R.J.

    1988-08-01

    The Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) is responsible for regulating on a national level the risks associated with technological sources of ionizing radiation in the environment. A critical activity of the ORP is analyzing and evaluating risk. The ORP believes that the analysis of uncertainty should be an integral part of any risk assessment; therefore, the ORP has initiated a project to develop framework for the treatment of uncertainty in risk analysis. Summaries of recent studies done in five areas of study are presented

  15. Review of studies related to uncertainty in risk analsis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rish, W.R.; Marnicio, R.J.

    1988-08-01

    The Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) is responsible for regulating on a national level the risks associated with technological sources of ionizing radiation in the environment. A critical activity of the ORP is analyzing and evaluating risk. The ORP believes that the analysis of uncertainty should be an integral part of any risk assessment; therefore, the ORP has initiated a project to develop framework for the treatment of uncertainty in risk analysis. Summaries of recent studies done in five areas of study are presented.

  16. Influence of short-term sampling parameters on the uncertainty of the Lden environmental noise indicator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mateus, M; Carrilho, J Dias; Da Silva, M Gameiro

    2015-01-01

    The present study deals with the influence of the sampling parameters on the uncertainty of noise equivalent level in environmental noise measurements. The study has been carried out through the test of different sampling strategies doing resampling trials over continuous monitoring noise files obtained previously in an urban location in the city of Coimbra, in Portugal. On short term measurements, not only the duration of the sampling episodes but also its number have influence on the uncertainty of the result. This influence is higher for the time periods where sound levels suffer a greater variation, such as during the night period. In this period, in case both parameters (duration and number of sampling episodes) are not carefully selected, the uncertainty level can reach too high values contributing to a loss of precision of the measurements. With the obtained data it was investigated the sampling parameters influence on the long term noise indicator uncertainty, calculated according the Draft 1st CD ISO 1996-2:2012 proposed method. It has been verified that this method allows the possibility of defining a general methodology which enables the setting of the parameters once the precision level is fixed. For the three reference periods defined for environmental noise (day, evening and night), it was possible to derive a two variable power law representing the uncertainty of the determined values as a function of the two sampling parameters: duration of sampling episode and number of episodes

  17. Dissertation Defense Computational Fluid Dynamics Uncertainty Analysis for Payload Fairing Spacecraft Environmental Control Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groves, Curtis Edward

    2014-01-01

    predictions. The method accounts for all uncertainty terms from both numerical and input variables. Objective three is to compile a table of uncertainty parameters that could be used to estimate the error in a Computational Fluid Dynamics model of the Environmental Control System /spacecraft system. Previous studies have looked at the uncertainty in a Computational Fluid Dynamics model for a single output variable at a single point, for example the re-attachment length of a backward facing step. For the flow regime being analyzed (turbulent, three-dimensional, incompressible), the error at a single point can propagate into the solution both via flow physics and numerical methods. Calculating the uncertainty in using Computational Fluid Dynamics to accurately predict airflow speeds around encapsulated spacecraft in is imperative to the success of future missions.

  18. Dissertation Defense: Computational Fluid Dynamics Uncertainty Analysis for Payload Fairing Spacecraft Environmental Control Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groves, Curtis Edward

    2014-01-01

    . The method accounts for all uncertainty terms from both numerical and input variables. Objective three is to compile a table of uncertainty parameters that could be used to estimate the error in a Computational Fluid Dynamics model of the Environmental Control System spacecraft system.Previous studies have looked at the uncertainty in a Computational Fluid Dynamics model for a single output variable at a single point, for example the re-attachment length of a backward facing step. For the flow regime being analyzed (turbulent, three-dimensional, incompressible), the error at a single point can propagate into the solution both via flow physics and numerical methods. Calculating the uncertainty in using Computational Fluid Dynamics to accurately predict airflow speeds around encapsulated spacecraft in is imperative to the success of future missions.

  19. Quality in environmental science for policy: assessing uncertainty as a component of policy analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maxim, L.; van der Sluijs, J.P.

    2011-01-01

    The sheer number of attempts to define and classify uncertainty reveals an awareness of its importance in environmental science for policy, though the nature of uncertainty is often misunderstood. The interdisciplinary field of uncertainty analysis is unstable; there are currently several incomplete

  20. The effect of environmental uncertainty and budgetary participation on performance and job satisfaction – evidence from the hotel industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Ali Boujelbene

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This study empirically examined the effect of budget participation on managerial performance and job satisfaction using a contingency theory approach. Perceived environmental uncertainty presents the contingent variable investigated. The responses of 41 managers, drawn from Tunisian hotels to a questionnaire survey were analyzed by using a moderated regression analysis. The results have indicated that environmental uncertainty moderates the effect of budgetary participation on both perceived managerial performance and job satisfaction. Our results suggest that the hotels should encourage the participation of managers in the budget setting process mainly in the current environment in Tunisia which is broadly characterized by a high level of uncertainty.

  1. Environmental studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1976-01-01

    The utility of high-resolution liquid chromatography for separating organophosphorus compounds from natural waters and effluents from coal processing plants was investigated. The procedures were optimized for the separation of phenol-type compounds from aqueous effluents from coal liquefaction processes. Preliminary results are reported from applications for the analysis of marine waters from estuaries and municipal drinking water. An automated analytical system, using a bifurcated, fiber-optic fluorometer, was developed for the isolation and identification of trace polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons for the continuous monitoring of coal liquefaction and coal gasification liquid effluents. The practice of chlorinating cooling waters was evaluated with respect to the formation of toxic chlorinated organic compounds of environmental importance

  2. ESFR core optimization and uncertainty studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rineiski, A.; Vezzoni, B.; Zhang, D.; Marchetti, M.; Gabrielli, F.; Maschek, W.; Chen, X.-N.; Buiron, L.; Krepel, J.; Sun, K.; Mikityuk, K.; Polidoro, F.; Rochman, D.; Koning, A.J.; DaCruz, D.F.; Tsige-Tamirat, H.; Sunderland, R.

    2015-01-01

    In the European Sodium Fast Reactor (ESFR) project supported by EURATOM in 2008-2012, a concept for a large 3600 MWth sodium-cooled fast reactor design was investigated. In particular, reference core designs with oxide and carbide fuel were optimized to improve their safety parameters. Uncertainties in these parameters were evaluated for the oxide option. Core modifications were performed first to reduce the sodium void reactivity effect. Introduction of a large sodium plenum with an absorber layer above the core and a lower axial fertile blanket improve the total sodium void effect appreciably, bringing it close to zero for a core with fresh fuel, in line with results obtained worldwide, while not influencing substantially other core physics parameters. Therefore an optimized configuration, CONF2, with a sodium plenum and a lower blanket was established first and used as a basis for further studies in view of deterioration of safety parameters during reactor operation. Further options to study were an inner fertile blanket, introduction of moderator pins, a smaller core height, special designs for pins, such as 'empty' pins, and subassemblies. These special designs were proposed to facilitate melted fuel relocation in order to avoid core re-criticality under severe accident conditions. In the paper further CONF2 modifications are compared in terms of safety and fuel balance. They may bring further improvements in safety, but their accurate assessment requires additional studies, including transient analyses. Uncertainty studies were performed by employing a so-called Total Monte-Carlo method, for which a large number of nuclear data files is produced for single isotopes and then used in Monte-Carlo calculations. The uncertainties for the criticality, sodium void and Doppler effects, effective delayed neutron fraction due to uncertainties in basic nuclear data were assessed for an ESFR core. They prove applicability of the available nuclear data for ESFR

  3. Evaluation of Parameter Uncertainty Reduction in Groundwater Flow Modeling Using Multiple Environmental Tracers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, B. W.; Gardner, P.

    2013-12-01

    Calibration of groundwater flow models for the purpose of evaluating flow and aquifer heterogeneity typically uses observations of hydraulic head in wells and appropriate boundary conditions. Environmental tracers have a wide variety of decay rates and input signals in recharge, resulting in a potentially broad source of additional information to constrain flow rates and heterogeneity. A numerical study was conducted to evaluate the reduction in uncertainty during model calibration using observations of various environmental tracers and combinations of tracers. A synthetic data set was constructed by simulating steady groundwater flow and transient tracer transport in a high-resolution, 2-D aquifer with heterogeneous permeability and porosity using the PFLOTRAN software code. Data on pressure and tracer concentration were extracted at well locations and then used as observations for automated calibration of a flow and transport model using the pilot point method and the PEST code. Optimization runs were performed to estimate parameter values of permeability at 30 pilot points in the model domain for cases using 42 observations of: 1) pressure, 2) pressure and CFC11 concentrations, 3) pressure and Ar-39 concentrations, and 4) pressure, CFC11, Ar-39, tritium, and He-3 concentrations. Results show significantly lower uncertainty, as indicated by the 95% linear confidence intervals, in permeability values at the pilot points for cases including observations of environmental tracer concentrations. The average linear uncertainty range for permeability at the pilot points using pressure observations alone is 4.6 orders of magnitude, using pressure and CFC11 concentrations is 1.6 orders of magnitude, using pressure and Ar-39 concentrations is 0.9 order of magnitude, and using pressure, CFC11, Ar-39, tritium, and He-3 concentrations is 1.0 order of magnitude. Data on Ar-39 concentrations result in the greatest parameter uncertainty reduction because its half-life of 269

  4. Uncertainty sources in radiopharmaceuticals clinical studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Degenhardt, Aemilie Louize; Oliveira, Silvia Maria Velasques de

    2014-01-01

    The radiopharmaceuticals should be approved for consumption by evaluating their quality, safety and efficacy. Clinical studies are designed to verify the pharmacodynamics, pharmacological and clinical effects in humans and are required for assuring safety and efficacy. The Bayesian analysis has been used for clinical studies effectiveness evaluation. This work aims to identify uncertainties associated with the process of production of the radionuclide and radiopharmaceutical labelling as well as the radiopharmaceutical administration and scintigraphy images acquisition and processing. For the development of clinical studies in the country, the metrological chain shall assure the traceability of the surveys performed in all phases. (author)

  5. Results from the Application of Uncertainty Methods in the CSNI Uncertainty Methods Study (UMS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glaeser, H.

    2008-01-01

    Within licensing procedures there is the incentive to replace the conservative requirements for code application by a - best estimate - concept supplemented by an uncertainty analysis to account for predictive uncertainties of code results. Methods have been developed to quantify these uncertainties. The Uncertainty Methods Study (UMS) Group, following a mandate from CSNI, has compared five methods for calculating the uncertainty in the predictions of advanced -best estimate- thermal-hydraulic codes. Most of the methods identify and combine input uncertainties. The major differences between the predictions of the methods came from the choice of uncertain parameters and the quantification of the input uncertainties, i.e. the wideness of the uncertainty ranges. Therefore, suitable experimental and analytical information has to be selected to specify these uncertainty ranges or distributions. After the closure of the Uncertainty Method Study (UMS) and after the report was issued comparison calculations of experiment LSTF-SB-CL-18 were performed by University of Pisa using different versions of the RELAP 5 code. It turned out that the version used by two of the participants calculated a 170 K higher peak clad temperature compared with other versions using the same input deck. This may contribute to the differences of the upper limit of the uncertainty ranges.

  6. Uncertainties

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    To reflect this uncertainty in the climate scenarios, the use of AOGCMs that explicitly simulate the carbon cycle and chemistry of all the substances are needed. The Hadley Centre has developed a version of the climate model that allows the effect of climate change on the carbon cycle and its feedback into climate, to be ...

  7. Uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, T.A. da

    1988-01-01

    The comparison between the uncertainty method recommended by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the and the International Weight and Measure Commitee (CIPM) are showed, for the calibration of clinical dosimeters in the secondary standard Dosimetry Laboratory (SSDL). (C.G.C.) [pt

  8. Uncertainty management, spatial and temporal reasoning, and validation of intelligent environmental decision support systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sànchez-Marrè, Miquel; Gilbert, Karina; Sojda, Rick S.; Steyer, Jean Philippe; Struss, Peter; Rodríguez-Roda, Ignasi; Voinov, A.A.; Jakeman, A.J.; Rizzoli, A.E.

    2006-01-01

    There are inherent open problems arising when developing and running Intelligent Environmental Decision Support Systems (IEDSS). During daily operation of IEDSS several open challenge problems appear. The uncertainty of data being processed is intrinsic to the environmental system, which is being monitored by several on-line sensors and off-line data. Thus, anomalous data values at data gathering level or even uncertain reasoning process at later levels such as in diagnosis or decision support or planning can lead the environmental process to unsafe critical operation states. At diagnosis level or even at decision support level or planning level, spatial reasoning or temporal reasoning or both aspects can influence the reasoning processes undertaken by the IEDSS. Most of Environmental systems must take into account the spatial relationships between the environmental goal area and the nearby environmental areas and the temporal relationships between the current state and the past states of the environmental system to state accurate and reliable assertions to be used within the diagnosis process or decision support process or planning process. Finally, a related issue is a crucial point: are really reliable and safe the decisions proposed by the IEDSS? Are we sure about the goodness and performance of proposed solutions? How can we ensure a correct evaluation of the IEDSS? Main goal of this paper is to analyse these four issues, review some possible approaches and techniques to cope with them, and study new trends for future research within the IEDSS field.

  9. On the use of uncertainty analyses to test hypotheses regarding deterministic model predictions of environmental processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilbert, R.O.; Bittner, E.A.; Essington, E.H.

    1995-01-01

    This paper illustrates the use of Monte Carlo parameter uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to test hypotheses regarding predictions of deterministic models of environmental transport, dose, risk and other phenomena. The methodology is illustrated by testing whether 238 Pu is transferred more readily than 239+240 Pu from the gastrointestinal (GI) tract of cattle to their tissues (muscle, liver and blood). This illustration is based on a study wherein beef-cattle grazed for up to 1064 days on a fenced plutonium (Pu)-contaminated arid site in Area 13 near the Nevada Test Site in the United States. Periodically, cattle were sacrificed and their tissues analyzed for Pu and other radionuclides. Conditional sensitivity analyses of the model predictions were also conducted. These analyses indicated that Pu cattle tissue concentrations had the largest impact of any model parameter on the pdf of predicted Pu fractional transfers. Issues that arise in conducting uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of deterministic models are discussed. (author)

  10. Uncertainty modelling and analysis of environmental systems: a river sediment yield example

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keesman, K.J.; Koskela, J.; Guillaume, J.H.; Norton, J.P.; Croke, B.; Jakeman, A.

    2011-01-01

    Abstract: Throughout the last decades uncertainty analysis has become an essential part of environmental model building (e.g. Beck 1987; Refsgaard et al., 2007). The objective of the paper is to introduce stochastic and setmembership uncertainty modelling concepts, which basically differ in the

  11. 'spup' - An R package for uncertainty propagation in spatial environmental modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sawicka, K.; Heuvelink, G.B.M.

    2016-01-01

    Computer models are crucial tools in engineering and environmental sciences for simulating the behaviour of complex systems. While many models are deterministic, the uncertainty in their predictions needs to be estimated before they are used for decision support. Advances in uncertainty analysis

  12. Fuzzy ABC: modeling the uncertainty in environmental cost allocation

    OpenAIRE

    Borba, José Alonso; Murcia, Fernando Dal Ri; Maior, Cesar Duarte Souto

    2007-01-01

    In many cases, preventing pollution and environmental destruction is cheaper than remedying these damages. In this sense, environmental cost allocation enables a better visualization and analysis of a product's profitability. However, the environmental allocation process involves estimated information and assumes linearity between activity consumption and product that is not real in many cases. In order to handle this not-linearity, this research presents a methodology based on fuzzy logic co...

  13. Evaluation of uncertainty in the measurement of environmental electromagnetic fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vulevic, B.; Osmokrovic, P.

    2010-01-01

    With regard to Non-ionising radiation protection, the relationship between human exposure to electromagnetic fields and health is controversial. Electromagnetic fields have become omnipresent in the daily environment. This paper assesses the problem of how to compare a measurement result with a limit fixed by the standard for human exposure to electric, magnetic and electromagnetic fields (0 Hz-300 GHz). The purpose of the paper is an appropriate representation of the basic information about evaluation of measurement uncertainty. (authors)

  14. Communication about scientific uncertainty in environmental nanoparticle research - a comparison of scientific literature and mass media

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heidmann, Ilona; Milde, Jutta

    2014-05-01

    The research about the fate and behavior of engineered nanoparticles in the environment is despite its wide applications still in the early stages. 'There is a high level of scientific uncertainty in nanoparticle research' is often stated in the scientific community. Knowledge about these uncertainties might be of interest to other scientists, experts and laymen. But how could these uncertainties be characterized and are they communicated within the scientific literature and the mass media? To answer these questions, the current state of scientific knowledge about scientific uncertainty through the example of environmental nanoparticle research was characterized and the communication of these uncertainties within the scientific literature is compared with its media coverage in the field of nanotechnologies. The scientific uncertainty within the field of environmental fate of nanoparticles is by method uncertainties and a general lack of data concerning the fate and effects of nanoparticles and their mechanisms in the environment, and by the uncertain transferability of results to the environmental system. In the scientific literature, scientific uncertainties, their sources, and consequences are mentioned with different foci and to a different extent. As expected, the authors in research papers focus on the certainty of specific results within their specific research question, whereas in review papers, the uncertainties due to a general lack of data are emphasized and the sources and consequences are discussed in a broader environmental context. In the mass media, nanotechnology is often framed as rather certain and positive aspects and benefits are emphasized. Although reporting about a new technology, only in one-third of the reports scientific uncertainties are mentioned. Scientific uncertainties are most often mentioned together with risk and they arise primarily from unknown harmful effects to human health. Environmental issues itself are seldom mentioned

  15. Prediction uncertainty of environmental change effects on temperate European biodiversity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dormann, C.; Schweiger, O.; Arens, P.F.P.; Augenstein, I.; Aviron, S.; Bailey, D.; Baudry, J.; Billeter, R.; Bugter, R.J.F.; Bukacek, R.; Burel, F.; Cerny, M.; Cock, de R.; Blust, de G.; DeFilippi, R.; Diekotter, T.; Dirksen, J.; Durka, W.; Edwards, P.J.; Frenzel, M.; Hamersky, R.; Hendrickx, F.; Herzog, F.; Klotz, S.; Koolstra, B.J.H.; Lausch, A.; Coeur, Le D.; Liira, J.; Maelfait, J.P.; Opdam, P.; Roubalova, M.; Schermann, A.; Schermann, N.; Schmidt, T.; Smulders, M.J.M.; Speelmans, M.; Simova, P.; Verboom, J.; Wingerden, van W.K.R.E.; Zobel, M.

    2008-01-01

    Observed patterns of species richness at landscape scale (gamma diversity) cannot always be attributed to a specific set of explanatory variables, but rather different alternative explanatory statistical models of similar quality may exist. Therefore predictions of the effects of environmental

  16. Metal oxide nanoparticle transport in porous media – an analysis about (un)certainties in environmental research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heidmann, I

    2013-01-01

    Research about the fate and behavior of engineered nanoparticles in the environment is despite its wide applications still in the early stages. The fast-growing area of nanoparticle research and the high level of uncertainty create a big challenge for describing clearly the recent state of the current scientific knowledge. Therefore, in this study the certain knowledge, the known uncertainties and the identified knowledge gaps concerning mobility of engineered metal oxide nanoparticles in porous media are analyzed. The mobility of nanoparticles is mainly investigated in model laboratory studies under well-defined conditions, which are often not realistic for natural systems. In these model systems, nanoparticles often retain in the pore system due to aggregation and sedimentation. However, under environmental conditions, the presence of natural organic matter may cause stabilization or disaggregation of nanoparticles and favors therefore higher mobility of nanoparticles. Additionally, potential higher mobility of particles using preferential flow paths is not considered. Knowledge of the long-term behavior of nanoparticles concerning disaggregation, dissolution or remobilization in soils under environmental conditions is scarce. Scientific uncertainty itself is rarely mentioned in the research papers. Seldom known methodically uncertainties in nanoparticle characterization are referred to. The uncertainty about the transferability of the results to environmental conditions is discussed more often. Due to the sparse studies concerning natural material or natural pore systems, certain conclusions concerning the mobility of nanoparticles in the soil environment are not possible to drawn.

  17. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of environmental and health risks of nanomaterials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Hansen, Steffen Foss; Baun, Anders

    Scientific uncertainty about the environmental, health and safety issues (EHS) of nanomaterials has been recognized by scientists, regulators, NGO’s as well as industry as a possible barrier towards nanotechnology reaching its full potential. Historically, research efforts tend to be directed...... within EHS knowledge and research for the sake of science itself, it is also crucial that these research efforts are strategically focused and prioritized in order to assist regulators, industry, as well as scientists in the EHS challenges that face them in developing nanomaterials. Therefore, this study...... characterisation of engineered nanoparticles according to several reports. This includes establishing, developing and standardising reference materials, monitoring and detection equipment and estimating human and environmental exposure concentrations. These issues ultimately lead to significant challenges...

  18. Justifying decisions in social dilemmas: justification pressures and tacit coordination under environmental uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Kwaadsteniet, Erik W; van Dijk, Eric; Wit, Arjaan; De Cremer, David; de Rooij, Mark

    2007-12-01

    This article investigates how justification pressures influence harvesting decisions in common resource dilemmas. The authors argue that when a division rule prescribes a specific harvest level, such as under environmental certainty, people adhere more strongly to this division rule when they have to justify their decisions to fellow group members. When a division rule does not prescribe a specific harvest level, such as under environmental uncertainty, people restrict their harvests when they have to justify their decisions to fellow group members. The results of two experimental studies corroborate this line of reasoning. The findings are discussed in terms of tacit coordination. The authors specify conditions under which justification pressures may or may not facilitate efficient coordination.

  19. Study on Uncertainty and Contextual Modelling

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Klimešová, Dana; Ocelíková, E.

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 1, č. 1 (2007), s. 12-15 ISSN 1998-0140 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Knowledge * contextual modelling * temporal modelling * uncertainty * knowledge management Subject RIV: BD - Theory of Information

  20. Developing methodology and tools for integrated assessment of the risks of global environmental change: Analyzing uncertainty, risk assessment, risk perception, expert judgment, and a case study on sea level rise. Report of collaborative research, July 1991--June 1993: Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lancaster, J.; Shlyakhter, A.; Wilson, R.

    1993-01-01

    Members of Congress, federal administrators, state regulators, city planners, corporate strategists and private citizens face decisions that may or may not warrant considering the potential impacts of climate change. The extent to which the global warming issue will weigh in these many decisions will be determined by (a) expert scientific judgement about global warming and its potential impacts, (b) public perception of the global warming problem, (c) uncertainties, and (d) other legal and political factors controlling the entry of a large-scale environmental issue into many avenues of decision making. The complexity and uncertainty surrounding the problem of climate change present new challenges to our ability to formulate rational decisions. The authors provide a methodical approach to characterizing the risks of global warming in a way that will be useful to decision makers

  1. Fed-batch and perfusion culture processes: economic, environmental, and operational feasibility under uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollock, James; Ho, Sa V; Farid, Suzanne S

    2013-01-01

    This article evaluates the current and future potential of batch and continuous cell culture technologies via a case study based on the commercial manufacture of monoclonal antibodies. The case study compares fed-batch culture to two perfusion technologies: spin-filter perfusion and an emerging perfusion technology utilizing alternating tangential flow (ATF) perfusion. The operational, economic, and environmental feasibility of whole bioprocesses based on these systems was evaluated using a prototype dynamic decision-support tool built at UCL encompassing process economics, discrete-event simulation and uncertainty analysis, and combined with a multi-attribute decision-making technique so as to enable a holistic assessment. The strategies were compared across a range of scales and titres so as to visualize how their ranking changes in different industry scenarios. The deterministic analysis indicated that the ATF perfusion strategy has the potential to offer cost of goods savings of 20% when compared to conventional fed-batch manufacturing processes when a fivefold increase in maximum viable cell densities was assumed. Savings were also seen when the ATF cell density dropped to a threefold increase over the fed-batch strategy for most combinations of titres and production scales. In contrast, the fed-batch strategy performed better in terms of environmental sustainability with a lower water and consumable usage profile. The impact of uncertainty and failure rates on the feasibility of the strategies was explored using Monte Carlo simulation. The risk analysis results demonstrated the enhanced robustness of the fed-batch process but also highlighted that the ATF process was still the most cost-effective option even under uncertainty. The multi-attribute decision-making analysis provided insight into the limited use of spin-filter perfusion strategies in industry. The resulting sensitivity spider plots enabled identification of the critical ratio of weightings of

  2. Quality in environmental science for policy: Assessing uncertainty as a component of policy analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maxim, Laura; Sluijs, Jeroen P. van der

    2011-01-01

    The sheer number of attempts to define and classify uncertainty reveals an awareness of its importance in environmental science for policy, though the nature of uncertainty is often misunderstood. The interdisciplinary field of uncertainty analysis is unstable; there are currently several incomplete notions of uncertainty leading to different and incompatible uncertainty classifications. One of the most salient shortcomings of present-day practice is that most of these classifications focus on quantifying uncertainty while ignoring the qualitative aspects that tend to be decisive in the interface between science and policy. Consequently, the current practices of uncertainty analysis contribute to increasing the perceived precision of scientific knowledge, but do not adequately address its lack of socio-political relevance. The 'positivistic' uncertainty analysis models (like those that dominate the fields of climate change modelling and nuclear or chemical risk assessment) have little social relevance, as they do not influence negotiations between stakeholders. From the perspective of the science-policy interface, the current practices of uncertainty analysis are incomplete and incorrectly focused. We argue that although scientific knowledge produced and used in a context of political decision-making embodies traditional scientific characteristics, it also holds additional properties linked to its influence on social, political, and economic relations. Therefore, the significance of uncertainty cannot be assessed based on quality criteria that refer to the scientific content only; uncertainty must also include quality criteria specific to the properties and roles of this scientific knowledge within political, social, and economic contexts and processes. We propose a conceptual framework designed to account for such substantive, contextual, and procedural criteria of knowledge quality. At the same time, the proposed framework includes and synthesizes the various

  3. Social and Environmental Determinants of Risk and Uncertainties Reporting

    OpenAIRE

    Camelia Iuliana LUNGU; Chiraţa CARAIANI; Cornelia DASCĂLU; Gina Raluca GUŞE

    2009-01-01

    Recently, risk reporting has gained interest in financial reporting practice, regulation, and international research. Social and environmental reporting is seen to benefit shareholders more by reducing risk than by increasing return. The researchers showed that the annual report is the most favoured channel of disclosure, along with presentation to investors. The general message is that, as far as annual reports go, quantified, verifiable disclosures have the most credibility and relevance. O...

  4. Integrating uncertainties to the combined environmental and economic assessment of algal biorefineries: A Monte Carlo approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-López, Paula; Montazeri, Mahdokht; Feijoo, Gumersindo; Moreira, María Teresa; Eckelman, Matthew J

    2018-06-01

    The economic and environmental performance of microalgal processes has been widely analyzed in recent years. However, few studies propose an integrated process-based approach to evaluate economic and environmental indicators simultaneously. Biodiesel is usually the single product and the effect of environmental benefits of co-products obtained in the process is rarely discussed. In addition, there is wide variation of the results due to inherent variability of some parameters as well as different assumptions in the models and limited knowledge about the processes. In this study, two standardized models were combined to provide an integrated simulation tool allowing the simultaneous estimation of economic and environmental indicators from a unique set of input parameters. First, a harmonized scenario was assessed to validate the joint environmental and techno-economic model. The findings were consistent with previous assessments. In a second stage, a Monte Carlo simulation was applied to evaluate the influence of variable and uncertain parameters in the model output, as well as the correlations between the different outputs. The simulation showed a high probability of achieving favorable environmental performance for the evaluated categories and a minimum selling price ranging from $11gal -1 to $106gal -1 . Greenhouse gas emissions and minimum selling price were found to have the strongest positive linear relationship, whereas eutrophication showed weak correlations with the other indicators (namely greenhouse gas emissions, cumulative energy demand and minimum selling price). Process parameters (especially biomass productivity and lipid content) were the main source of variation, whereas uncertainties linked to the characterization methods and economic parameters had limited effect on the results. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. An introductory guide to uncertainty analysis in environmental and health risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoffman, F.O.; Hammonds, J.S.

    1992-10-01

    To compensate for the potential for overly conservative estimates of risk using standard US Environmental Protection Agency methods, an uncertainty analysis should be performed as an integral part of each risk assessment. Uncertainty analyses allow one to obtain quantitative results in the form of confidence intervals that will aid in decision making and will provide guidance for the acquisition of additional data. To perform an uncertainty analysis, one must frequently rely on subjective judgment in the absence of data to estimate the range and a probability distribution describing the extent of uncertainty about a true but unknown value for each parameter of interest. This information is formulated from professional judgment based on an extensive review of literature, analysis of the data, and interviews with experts. Various analytical and numerical techniques are available to allow statistical propagation of the uncertainty in the model parameters to a statement of uncertainty in the risk to a potentially exposed individual. Although analytical methods may be straightforward for relatively simple models, they rapidly become complicated for more involved risk assessments. Because of the tedious efforts required to mathematically derive analytical approaches to propagate uncertainty in complicated risk assessments, numerical methods such as Monte Carlo simulation should be employed. The primary objective of this report is to provide an introductory guide for performing uncertainty analysis in risk assessments being performed for Superfund sites

  6. Environmental Uncertainty, Performance Measure Variety and Perceived Performance in Icelandic Companies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rikhardsson, Pall; Sigurjonsson, Throstur Olaf; Arnardottir, Audur Arna

    and the perceived performance of the company. The sample was the 300 largest companies in Iceland and the response rate was 27%. Compared to other studies the majority of the respondents use a surprisingly high number of different measures – both financial and non-financial. This made testing of the three......The use of performance measures and performance measurement frameworks has increased significantly in recent years. The type and variety of performance measures in use has been researched in various countries and linked to different variables such as the external environment, performance...... measurement frameworks, and management characteristics. This paper reports the results of a study carried out at year end 2013 of the use of performance measures by Icelandic companies and the links to perceived environmental uncertainty, management satisfaction with the performance measurement system...

  7. An Extended Chemical Plant Environmental Protection Game on Addressing Uncertainties of Human Adversaries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Zhengqiu; Chen, Bin; Qiu, Sihang; Wang, Rongxiao; Chen, Feiran; Wang, Yiping; Qiu, Xiaogang

    2018-03-27

    Chemical production activities in industrial districts pose great threats to the surrounding atmospheric environment and human health. Therefore, developing appropriate and intelligent pollution controlling strategies for the management team to monitor chemical production processes is significantly essential in a chemical industrial district. The literature shows that playing a chemical plant environmental protection (CPEP) game can force the chemical plants to be more compliant with environmental protection authorities and reduce the potential risks of hazardous gas dispersion accidents. However, results of the current literature strictly rely on several perfect assumptions which rarely hold in real-world domains, especially when dealing with human adversaries. To address bounded rationality and limited observability in human cognition, the CPEP game is extended to generate robust schedules of inspection resources for inspection agencies. The present paper is innovative on the following contributions: (i) The CPEP model is extended by taking observation frequency and observation cost of adversaries into account, and thus better reflects the industrial reality; (ii) Uncertainties such as attackers with bounded rationality, attackers with limited observation and incomplete information (i.e., the attacker's parameters) are integrated into the extended CPEP model; (iii) Learning curve theory is employed to determine the attacker's observability in the game solver. Results in the case study imply that this work improves the decision-making process for environmental protection authorities in practical fields by bringing more rewards to the inspection agencies and by acquiring more compliance from chemical plants.

  8. An Extended Chemical Plant Environmental Protection Game on Addressing Uncertainties of Human Adversaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Rongxiao; Chen, Feiran; Wang, Yiping; Qiu, Xiaogang

    2018-01-01

    Chemical production activities in industrial districts pose great threats to the surrounding atmospheric environment and human health. Therefore, developing appropriate and intelligent pollution controlling strategies for the management team to monitor chemical production processes is significantly essential in a chemical industrial district. The literature shows that playing a chemical plant environmental protection (CPEP) game can force the chemical plants to be more compliant with environmental protection authorities and reduce the potential risks of hazardous gas dispersion accidents. However, results of the current literature strictly rely on several perfect assumptions which rarely hold in real-world domains, especially when dealing with human adversaries. To address bounded rationality and limited observability in human cognition, the CPEP game is extended to generate robust schedules of inspection resources for inspection agencies. The present paper is innovative on the following contributions: (i) The CPEP model is extended by taking observation frequency and observation cost of adversaries into account, and thus better reflects the industrial reality; (ii) Uncertainties such as attackers with bounded rationality, attackers with limited observation and incomplete information (i.e., the attacker’s parameters) are integrated into the extended CPEP model; (iii) Learning curve theory is employed to determine the attacker’s observability in the game solver. Results in the case study imply that this work improves the decision-making process for environmental protection authorities in practical fields by bringing more rewards to the inspection agencies and by acquiring more compliance from chemical plants. PMID:29584679

  9. An Extended Chemical Plant Environmental Protection Game on Addressing Uncertainties of Human Adversaries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhengqiu Zhu

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Chemical production activities in industrial districts pose great threats to the surrounding atmospheric environment and human health. Therefore, developing appropriate and intelligent pollution controlling strategies for the management team to monitor chemical production processes is significantly essential in a chemical industrial district. The literature shows that playing a chemical plant environmental protection (CPEP game can force the chemical plants to be more compliant with environmental protection authorities and reduce the potential risks of hazardous gas dispersion accidents. However, results of the current literature strictly rely on several perfect assumptions which rarely hold in real-world domains, especially when dealing with human adversaries. To address bounded rationality and limited observability in human cognition, the CPEP game is extended to generate robust schedules of inspection resources for inspection agencies. The present paper is innovative on the following contributions: (i The CPEP model is extended by taking observation frequency and observation cost of adversaries into account, and thus better reflects the industrial reality; (ii Uncertainties such as attackers with bounded rationality, attackers with limited observation and incomplete information (i.e., the attacker’s parameters are integrated into the extended CPEP model; (iii Learning curve theory is employed to determine the attacker’s observability in the game solver. Results in the case study imply that this work improves the decision-making process for environmental protection authorities in practical fields by bringing more rewards to the inspection agencies and by acquiring more compliance from chemical plants.

  10. Uncertainties in human health risk assessment of environmental contaminants: A review and perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Zhaomin; Liu, Yanju; Duan, Luchun; Bekele, Dawit; Naidu, Ravi

    2015-12-01

    Addressing uncertainties in human health risk assessment is a critical issue when evaluating the effects of contaminants on public health. A range of uncertainties exist through the source-to-outcome continuum, including exposure assessment, hazard and risk characterisation. While various strategies have been applied to characterising uncertainty, classical approaches largely rely on how to maximise the available resources. Expert judgement, defaults and tools for characterising quantitative uncertainty attempt to fill the gap between data and regulation requirements. The experiences of researching 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) illustrated uncertainty sources and how to maximise available information to determine uncertainties, and thereby provide an 'adequate' protection to contaminant exposure. As regulatory requirements and recurring issues increase, the assessment of complex scenarios involving a large number of chemicals requires more sophisticated tools. Recent advances in exposure and toxicology science provide a large data set for environmental contaminants and public health. In particular, biomonitoring information, in vitro data streams and computational toxicology are the crucial factors in the NexGen risk assessment, as well as uncertainties minimisation. Although in this review we cannot yet predict how the exposure science and modern toxicology will develop in the long-term, current techniques from emerging science can be integrated to improve decision-making. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Estimation of uncertainties in predictions of environmental transfer models: evaluation of methods and application to CHERPAC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koch, J.; Peterson, S-R.

    1995-10-01

    Models used to simulate environmental transfer of radionuclides typically include many parameters, the values of which are uncertain. An estimation of the uncertainty associated with the predictions is therefore essential. Difference methods to quantify the uncertainty in the prediction parameter uncertainties are reviewed. A statistical approach using random sampling techniques is recommended for complex models with many uncertain parameters. In this approach, the probability density function of the model output is obtained from multiple realizations of the model according to a multivariate random sample of the different input parameters. Sampling efficiency can be improved by using a stratified scheme (Latin Hypercube Sampling). Sample size can also be restricted when statistical tolerance limits needs to be estimated. Methods to rank parameters according to their contribution to uncertainty in the model prediction are also reviewed. Recommended are measures of sensitivity, correlation and regression coefficients that can be calculated on values of input and output variables generated during the propagation of uncertainties through the model. A parameter uncertainty analysis is performed for the CHERPAC food chain model which estimates subjective confidence limits and intervals on the predictions at a 95% confidence level. A sensitivity analysis is also carried out using partial rank correlation coefficients. This identified and ranks the parameters which are the main contributors to uncertainty in the predictions, thereby guiding further research efforts. (author). 44 refs., 2 tabs., 4 figs

  12. Estimation of uncertainties in predictions of environmental transfer models: evaluation of methods and application to CHERPAC

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koch, J. [Israel Atomic Energy Commission, Yavne (Israel). Soreq Nuclear Research Center; Peterson, S-R.

    1995-10-01

    Models used to simulate environmental transfer of radionuclides typically include many parameters, the values of which are uncertain. An estimation of the uncertainty associated with the predictions is therefore essential. Difference methods to quantify the uncertainty in the prediction parameter uncertainties are reviewed. A statistical approach using random sampling techniques is recommended for complex models with many uncertain parameters. In this approach, the probability density function of the model output is obtained from multiple realizations of the model according to a multivariate random sample of the different input parameters. Sampling efficiency can be improved by using a stratified scheme (Latin Hypercube Sampling). Sample size can also be restricted when statistical tolerance limits needs to be estimated. Methods to rank parameters according to their contribution to uncertainty in the model prediction are also reviewed. Recommended are measures of sensitivity, correlation and regression coefficients that can be calculated on values of input and output variables generated during the propagation of uncertainties through the model. A parameter uncertainty analysis is performed for the CHERPAC food chain model which estimates subjective confidence limits and intervals on the predictions at a 95% confidence level. A sensitivity analysis is also carried out using partial rank correlation coefficients. This identified and ranks the parameters which are the main contributors to uncertainty in the predictions, thereby guiding further research efforts. (author). 44 refs., 2 tabs., 4 figs.

  13. Vehicle navigation in populated areas using predictive control with environmental uncertainty handling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Skrzypczyk Krzysztof

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses the problem of navigating an autonomous vehicle using environmental dynamics prediction. The usefulness of the Game Against Nature formalism adapted to modelling environmental prediction uncertainty is discussed. The possibility of the control law synthesis on the basis of strategies against Nature is presented. The properties and effectiveness of the approach presented are verified by simulations carried out in MATLAB.

  14. Rational consensus under uncertainty: Expert judgment in the EC-USNRC uncertainty study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cooke, R.; Kraan, B.; Goossens, L.

    1999-01-01

    Governmental bodies are confronted with the problem of achieving rational consensus in the face of substantial uncertainties. The area of accident consequence management for nuclear power plants affords a good example. Decisions with regard to evacuation, decontamination, and food bans must be taken on the basis of predictions of environmental transport of radioactive material, contamination through the food chain, cancer induction, and the like. These predictions use mathematical models containing scores of uncertain parameters. Decision makers want to take, and want to be perceived to take, these decisions in a rational manner. The question is, how can this be accomplished in the face of large uncertainties? Indeed, the very presence of uncertainty poses a threat to rational consensus. Decision makers will necessarily base their actions on the judgments of experts. The experts, however, will not agree among themselves, as otherwise we would not speak of large uncertainties. Any given expert's viewpoint will be favorable to the interests of some stakeholders, and hostile to the interests of others. If a decision maker bases his/her actions on the views of one single expert, then (s)he is invariably open to charges of partiality toward the interests favored by this viewpoint. An appeal to 'impartial' or 'disinterested' experts will fail for two reasons. First, experts have interests; they have jobs, mortgages and professional reputations. Second, even if expert interests could somehow be quarantined, even then the experts would disagree. Expert disagreement is not explained by diverging interests, and consensus cannot be reached by shielding the decision process from expert interests. If rational consensus requires expert agreement, then rational consensus is simply not possible in the face of uncertainty. If rational consensus under uncertainty is to be achieved, then evidently the views of a diverse set of experts must be taken into account. The question is how

  15. Scientific Uncertainties in Climate Change Detection and Attribution Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santer, B. D.

    2017-12-01

    It has been claimed that the treatment and discussion of key uncertainties in climate science is "confined to hushed sidebar conversations at scientific conferences". This claim is demonstrably incorrect. Climate change detection and attribution studies routinely consider key uncertainties in observational climate data, as well as uncertainties in model-based estimates of natural variability and the "fingerprints" in response to different external forcings. The goal is to determine whether such uncertainties preclude robust identification of a human-caused climate change fingerprint. It is also routine to investigate the impact of applying different fingerprint identification strategies, and to assess how detection and attribution results are impacted by differences in the ability of current models to capture important aspects of present-day climate. The exploration of the uncertainties mentioned above will be illustrated using examples from detection and attribution studies with atmospheric temperature and moisture.

  16. Validation of methodology and uncertainty assessment of antimony determination in environmental materials using Neutron Activation Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsubara, Tassiane C.M.; Saiki, Mitiko; Zahn, Guilherme S.; Moreira, Edson G.

    2013-01-01

    Antimony is an element found in low concentrations in the environment. However, its determination has attracted great interest because of the knowledge of its toxicity and increasing application. Neutron activation analysis (NAA) is a suitable method for the determination of several elements in different types, but in case of Sb, the analysis presents some difficulties due to spectral interferences. The objective of this research was to validate the method of NAA and uncertainty assessment for Sb determination in environmental samples. The experimental procedure consisted of irradiating twelve certified reference samples of different kind of matrices. The samples were irradiated in the nuclear research reactor IEA R1 IPEN/CNEN/SP followed by measurement of induced radioactivity, using a hyperpure germanium detector coupled to a gamma ray spectrometry. The radioisotopes 122 Sb and 124 Sb were measured and the Sb concentrations with their respective uncertainties were obtained by the comparative method. Relative errors and values of Z scores were calculated to evaluate the accuracy of the results for Sb determination in certified reference materials. The evaluation of the components that contribute to uncertainty measurement of the Sb concentration, showed that the major uncertainty contribution is due to statistical counting. The results also indicated that the uncertainty value of the combined standard uncertainty depends on the radioisotope measured and the decay time used for counting. (author)

  17. THE EFFECTS OF DEVELOPMENTAL AND RATIONAL SUBCULTURES ON ENTREPRENEURIAL BEHAVIORS: THE MEDIATING ROLE OF PERCEIVED ENVIRONMENTAL UNCERTAINTY

    OpenAIRE

    Irfan Akkoc; Abdullah Caliskan; Omer Turunc

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of developmental and rational culture on the employees’ entrepreneurial behaviors and the mediating role of the perceived environmental uncertainty on this effect. The relationship between the aforementioned variables is analyzed by using a set of statistical techniques, i.e., factor analysis, regression analysis, and sobel tests. The data used in the analysis is obtained through questionnaires filled out by 651 employees of the private firms...

  18. Calculation of uncertainties associated to environmental radioactivity measurements and their functions. Practical Procedure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gasco Leonarte, C; Anton Mateos, M. P.

    1995-01-01

    This report summarizes the procedure used to calculate the uncertainties associated to environmental radioactivity measurements, focusing on those obtained by radiochemical separation in which tracers have been added. Uncertainties linked to activity concentration calculations, isotopic rat iso, inventories, sequential leaching data, chronology dating by using C.R.S. model and duplicate analysis are described in detail. The objective of this article is to serve as a guide to people not familiarized with this kind of calculations, showing clear practical examples. The input of the formulas and all the data needed to achieve these calculations into the Lotus 1, 2, 3 WTN is outlined as well. (Author) 13 refs

  19. Calculation of uncertainties associated to environmental radioactivity measurements and their functions. Practical Procedure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gasco Leonarte, C.; Anton Mateos, M.P.

    1995-12-01

    This report summarizes the procedure used to calculate the uncertainties associated to environmental radioactivity measurements. focusing on those obtained by radiochemical separation in which tracers have been added. Uncertainties linked to activity concentration calculations, isotopic ratio, inventories, sequential leaching data, chronology dating by using C.R.S model and duplicate analysis are described in detail. The objective of this article is to serve as a guide to people not familiarized with this kind of calculations, showing clear practical examples. The input of the formulas and all the data needed to achieve these calculations into the Lotus 1,2,3, WIN is outlined as well. (Author)

  20. Quantification of uncertainty in gamma spectrometric analysis of food and environmental samples

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yii Mei Wo; Zaharudin Ahmad; Norfaizal Mohamed

    2005-01-01

    Gamma Spectrometry is widely used to determine the activity of gamma-ray emitter radionuclide inside a sample. Reporting the activity of the measurement for a sample should not be a single value only but it shall be associated with a reasonable uncertainty value since disintegration of radionuclide is a random/spontaneous process. This paper will focus on how the uncertainty was estimated, quantified and calculated, when measuring the activity of Cs-134 and Cs-137 in food and Ra-226, Ra-228 and K-40 in the environmental samples. (Author)

  1. Jabiluka environmental studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morley, A.W.; Koontz, D.V.; Sanderson, N.T. (Pancontinental Mining Ltd., Sydney (Australia))

    1984-02-01

    Environmental baseline studies associated with development of the Jabiluka uranium deposits are described. Some basic characteristics of the area local to the deposits are reported and a brief explanation is provided of the nature of, and philosophy behind the environmental studies. The major findings from this program are discussed.

  2. Jabiluka environmental studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morley, A.W.; Koontz, D.V.; Sanderson, N.T.

    1984-01-01

    Environmental baseline studies associated with development of the Jabiluka uranium deposits are described. Some basic characteristics of the area local to the deposits are reported and a brief explanation is provided of the nature of, and philosophy behind the environmental studies. The major findings from this program are discussed. (author)

  3. Environmental pollution studies

    CERN Document Server

    Best, Gerry

    1999-01-01

    This book examines a number of important contemporary environmental issues in an informative and easy-to-read style. The topics covered include sewage treatment, eutrophication, air pollution, acid rain, global warming and pollution from farming. A particularly valuable section of the book describes a range of tests that can be carried out on various environmental parameters. The procedures require relatively simple equipment and they have been pre-tested in a school laboratory. "Environmental Pollution Studies" will be of value to senior school pupils and students at college or university embarking on courses in environmental science.

  4. Modelling and propagation of uncertainties in the German Risk Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hofer, E.; Krzykacz, B.

    1982-01-01

    Risk assessments are generally subject to uncertainty considerations. This is because of the various estimates that are involved. The paper points out those estimates in the so-called phase A of the German Risk Study, for which uncertainties were quantified. It explains the probabilistic models applied in the assessment to their impact on the findings of the study. Finally the resulting subjective confidence intervals of the study results are presented and their sensitivity to these probabilistic models is investigated

  5. Determination of radionuclides in environmental test items at CPHR: traceability and uncertainty calculation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrazana González, J; Fernández, I M; Capote Ferrera, E; Rodríguez Castro, G

    2008-11-01

    Information about how the laboratory of Centro de Protección e Higiene de las Radiaciones (CPHR), Cuba establishes its traceability to the International System of Units for the measurement of radionuclides in environmental test items is presented. A comparison among different methodologies of uncertainty calculation, including an analysis of the feasibility of using the Kragten-spreadsheet approach, is shown. In the specific case of the gamma spectrometric assay, the influence of each parameter, and the identification of the major contributor, in the relative difference between the methods of uncertainty calculation (Kragten and partial derivative) is described. The reliability of the uncertainty calculation results reported by the commercial software Gamma 2000 from Silena is analyzed.

  6. Determination of radionuclides in environmental test items at CPHR: Traceability and uncertainty calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrazana Gonzalez, J.; Fernandez, I.M.; Capote Ferrera, E.; Rodriguez Castro, G.

    2008-01-01

    Information about how the laboratory of Centro de Proteccion e Higiene de las Radiaciones (CPHR), Cuba establishes its traceability to the International System of Units for the measurement of radionuclides in environmental test items is presented. A comparison among different methodologies of uncertainty calculation, including an analysis of the feasibility of using the Kragten-spreadsheet approach, is shown. In the specific case of the gamma spectrometric assay, the influence of each parameter, and the identification of the major contributor, in the relative difference between the methods of uncertainty calculation (Kragten and partial derivative) is described. The reliability of the uncertainty calculation results reported by the commercial software Gamma 2000 from Silena is analyzed

  7. Calculation of uncertainties associated to environmental radioactivity measurements and their functions. Practical Procedure II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gascon, C.; Anton, M.P.

    1997-01-01

    Environmental radioactivity measurements are mainly affected by counting uncertainties. In this report the uncertainties associated to certain functions related to activity concentration calculations are determined. Some practical exercise are presented to calculate the uncertainties associated to: a) Chemical recovery of a radiochemical separation when employing tracers (i.e. Pu and Am purification from a sediment sample). b) Indirect determination of a mother radionuclide through one of its daughters (i. e. ''210 Pb quantification following its daughter ''210 Po building-up activity). c) Time span from last separation date of one of the components of a disintegration chain (i.e. Am last purification date from a nuclear weapons following ''241 Am and ''241 Pu measurements). Calculations concerning example b) and c) are based on Baterman equations, regulating radioactive equilibria. Although the exercises here presented are performed with certain radionuclides, they could be applied as generic procedures for other alpha-emitting radioelements

  8. Quantifying uncertainties in precipitation: a case study from Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Anagnostopoulou

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of the present study was the examination and the quantification of the uncertainties in the precipitation time series over the Greek area, for a 42-year time period. The uncertainty index applied to the rainfall data is a combination (total of the departures of the rainfall season length, of the median data of the accumulated percentages and of the total amounts of rainfall. Results of the study indicated that all the stations are characterized, on an average basis, by medium to high uncertainty. The stations that presented an increasing rainfall uncertainty were the ones located mainly to the continental parts of the study region. From the temporal analysis of the uncertainty index, it was demonstrated that the greatest percentage of the years, for all the stations time-series, was characterized by low to high uncertainty (intermediate categories of the index. Most of the results of the uncertainty index for the Greek region are similar to the corresponding results of various stations all over the European region.

  9. Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty - A Joint CEC/USNRC Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gregory, Julie J.; Harper, Frederick T.

    1999-01-01

    The joint USNRC/CEC consequence uncertainty study was chartered after the development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS in the U.S. and COSYMA in Europe. Both the USNRC and CEC had a vested interest in expanding the knowledge base of the uncertainty associated with consequence modeling, and teamed up to co-sponsor a consequence uncertainty study. The information acquired from the study was expected to provide understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of current models as well as a basis for direction of future research. This paper looks at the elicitation process implemented in the joint study and discusses some of the uncertainty distributions provided by eight panels of experts from the U.S. and Europe that were convened to provide responses to the elicitation. The phenomenological areas addressed by the expert panels include atmospheric dispersion and deposition, deposited material and external doses, food chain, early health effects, late health effects and internal dosimetry

  10. Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty - A Joint CEC/USNRC Study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gregory, Julie J.; Harper, Frederick T.

    1999-07-28

    The joint USNRC/CEC consequence uncertainty study was chartered after the development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS in the U.S. and COSYMA in Europe. Both the USNRC and CEC had a vested interest in expanding the knowledge base of the uncertainty associated with consequence modeling, and teamed up to co-sponsor a consequence uncertainty study. The information acquired from the study was expected to provide understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of current models as well as a basis for direction of future research. This paper looks at the elicitation process implemented in the joint study and discusses some of the uncertainty distributions provided by eight panels of experts from the U.S. and Europe that were convened to provide responses to the elicitation. The phenomenological areas addressed by the expert panels include atmospheric dispersion and deposition, deposited material and external doses, food chain, early health effects, late health effects and internal dosimetry.

  11. Building Transdisciplinary Environmental Studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm, Jesper

    We will in this paper approach the challenge of building integrated environmental studies by presenting a crude frame of analysis which take into account both the physical aspects and the social-discursive articulations of environmental problems. This framework partly mirrors the approach of our...... department (Dept. of Environment, Technology and Social Studies, Roskilde University), and has originally in another version been presented in the book “Miljøregulering - tværvidenskabelige studier (Environmental Regulation. Interdisciplinary Studies)” (Holm, Kjærgård & Pedersen eds. 1997, in Danish) written...

  12. On backstops and boomerangs. Environmental R and D under technological uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goeschl, Timo; Perino, Grischa

    2009-01-01

    In areas such as climate change, the recent economic literature has been emphasizing and addressing the pervasive presence of uncertainty. This paper considers a new and salient form of uncertainty, namely uncertainty regarding the environmental characteristics of 'green' innovations. Here, R and D may generate both backstop technologies and technologies that turn out to involve a new pollution problem ('boomerangs'). In the optimum, R and D will therefore typically be undertaken more than once. Extending results from multi-stage optimal control theory, we present a tractable model with a full characterization of the optimal pollution and R and D policies and the role of uncertainty. In this setting, (i) the optimal R and D program is defined by a research trigger condition in which the decision-maker's belief about the probability of finding a backstop enters in an intuitive way; (2) a decreasing probability of finding a backstop leads to the toleration of higher pollution levels, slower R and D, a slower turnover of technologies, and an ambiguous effect on the expected number of innovations; (3) learning about the probability of a backstop is driven by failures only and leads to decreasing research incentives; and (4) small to moderate delays in the resolution of technological uncertainty do not affect the optimal policy. (author)

  13. A probabilistic approach to cost and duration uncertainties in environmental decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boak, D.M.; Painton, L.

    1996-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories has developed a method for analyzing life-cycle costs using probabilistic cost forecasting and utility theory to determine the most cost-effective alternatives for safe interim storage of radioactive materials. The method explicitly incorporates uncertainties in cost and storage duration by (1) treating uncertain component costs as random variables represented by probability distributions, (2) treating uncertain durations as chance nodes in a decision tree, and (3) using stochastic simulation tools to generate life-cycle cost forecasts for each storage alternative. The method applies utility functions to the forecasted costs to incorporate the decision maker's risk preferences, making it possible to compare alternatives on the basis of both cost and cost utility. Finally, the method is used to help identify key contributors to the uncertainty in forecasted costs to focus efforts aimed at reducing cost uncertainties. Where significant cost and duration uncertainties exist, and where programmatic decisions must be made despite these uncertainties, probabilistic forecasting techniques can yield important insights into decision alternatives, especially when used as part of a larger decision analysis framework and when properly balanced with deterministic analyses. Although the method is built around an interim storage example, it is potentially applicable to many other environmental decision problems

  14. Environmental impact and risk assessments and key factors contributing to the overall uncertainties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salbu, Brit

    2016-01-01

    There is a significant number of nuclear and radiological sources that have contributed, are still contributing, or have the potential to contribute to radioactive contamination of the environment in the future. To protect the environment from radioactive contamination, impact and risk assessments are performed prior to or during a release event, short or long term after deposition or prior and after implementation of countermeasures. When environmental impact and risks are assessed, however, a series of factors will contribute to the overall uncertainties. To provide environmental impact and risk assessments, information on processes, kinetics and a series of input variables is needed. Adding problems such as variability, questionable assumptions, gaps in knowledge, extrapolations and poor conceptual model structures, a series of factors are contributing to large and often unacceptable uncertainties in impact and risk assessments. Information on the source term and the release scenario is an essential starting point in impact and risk models; the source determines activity concentrations and atom ratios of radionuclides released, while the release scenario determine the physico-chemical forms of released radionuclides such as particle size distribution, structure and density. Releases will most often contain other contaminants such as metals, and due to interactions, contaminated sites should be assessed as a multiple stressor scenario. Following deposition, a series of stressors, interactions and processes will influence the ecosystem transfer of radionuclide species and thereby influence biological uptake (toxicokinetics) and responses (toxicodynamics) in exposed organisms. Due to the variety of biological species, extrapolation is frequently needed to fill gaps in knowledge e.g., from effects to no effects, from effects in one organism to others, from one stressor to mixtures. Most toxtests are, however, performed as short term exposure of adult organisms

  15. An interval-based possibilistic programming method for waste management with cost minimization and environmental-impact abatement under uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Y P; Huang, G H

    2010-09-15

    Considerable public concerns have been raised in the past decades since a large amount of pollutant emissions from municipal solid waste (MSW) disposal of processes pose risks on surrounding environment and human health. Moreover, in MSW management, various uncertainties exist in the related costs, impact factors and objectives, which can affect the optimization processes and the decision schemes generated. In this study, an interval-based possibilistic programming (IBPP) method is developed for planning the MSW management with minimized system cost and environmental impact under uncertainty. The developed method can deal with uncertainties expressed as interval values and fuzzy sets in the left- and right-hand sides of constraints and objective function. An interactive algorithm is provided for solving the IBPP problem, which does not lead to more complicated intermediate submodels and has a relatively low computational requirement. The developed model is applied to a case study of planning a MSW management system, where mixed integer linear programming (MILP) technique is introduced into the IBPP framework to facilitate dynamic analysis for decisions of timing, sizing and siting in terms of capacity expansion for waste-management facilities. Three cases based on different waste-management policies are examined. The results obtained indicate that inclusion of environmental impacts in the optimization model can change the traditional waste-allocation pattern merely based on the economic-oriented planning approach. The results obtained can help identify desired alternatives for managing MSW, which has advantages in providing compromised schemes under an integrated consideration of economic efficiency and environmental impact under uncertainty. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Nordic reference study on uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirschberg, S.; Jacobsson, P.; Pulkkinen, U.; Porn, K.

    1989-01-01

    This paper provides a review of the first phase of Nordic reference study on uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. The main objective of this study is to use experiences form previous Nordic Benchmark Exercises and reference studies concerning critical modeling issues such as common cause failures and human interactions, and to demonstrate the impact of associated uncertainties on the uncertainty of the investigated accident sequence. This has been done independently by three working groups which used different approaches to modeling and to uncertainty analysis. The estimated uncertainty interval for the analyzed accident sequence is large. Also the discrepancies between the groups are substantial but can be explained. Sensitivity analyses which have been carried out concern e.g. use of different CCF-quantification models, alternative handling of CCF-data, time windows for operator actions and time dependences in phase mission operation, impact of state-of-knowledge dependences and ranking of dominating uncertainty contributors. Specific findings with respect to these issues are summarized in the paper

  17. Environmental impact and risk assessments and key factors contributing to the overall uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salbu, Brit

    2016-01-01

    There is a significant number of nuclear and radiological sources that have contributed, are still contributing, or have the potential to contribute to radioactive contamination of the environment in the future. To protect the environment from radioactive contamination, impact and risk assessments are performed prior to or during a release event, short or long term after deposition or prior and after implementation of countermeasures. When environmental impact and risks are assessed, however, a series of factors will contribute to the overall uncertainties. To provide environmental impact and risk assessments, information on processes, kinetics and a series of input variables is needed. Adding problems such as variability, questionable assumptions, gaps in knowledge, extrapolations and poor conceptual model structures, a series of factors are contributing to large and often unacceptable uncertainties in impact and risk assessments. Information on the source term and the release scenario is an essential starting point in impact and risk models; the source determines activity concentrations and atom ratios of radionuclides released, while the release scenario determine the physico-chemical forms of released radionuclides such as particle size distribution, structure and density. Releases will most often contain other contaminants such as metals, and due to interactions, contaminated sites should be assessed as a multiple stressor scenario. Following deposition, a series of stressors, interactions and processes will influence the ecosystem transfer of radionuclide species and thereby influence biological uptake (toxicokinetics) and responses (toxicodynamics) in exposed organisms. Due to the variety of biological species, extrapolation is frequently needed to fill gaps in knowledge e.g., from effects to no effects, from effects in one organism to others, from one stressor to mixtures. Most toxtests are, however, performed as short term exposure of adult organisms

  18. A fuzzy stochastic framework for managing hydro-environmental and socio-economic interactions under uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subagadis, Yohannes Hagos; Schütze, Niels; Grundmann, Jens

    2014-05-01

    An amplified interconnectedness between a hydro-environmental and socio-economic system brings about profound challenges of water management decision making. In this contribution, we present a fuzzy stochastic approach to solve a set of decision making problems, which involve hydrologically, environmentally, and socio-economically motivated criteria subjected to uncertainty and ambiguity. The proposed methodological framework combines objective and subjective criteria in a decision making procedure for obtaining an acceptable ranking in water resources management alternatives under different type of uncertainty (subjective/objective) and heterogeneous information (quantitative/qualitative) simultaneously. The first step of the proposed approach involves evaluating the performance of alternatives with respect to different types of criteria. The ratings of alternatives with respect to objective and subjective criteria are evaluated by simulation-based optimization and fuzzy linguistic quantifiers, respectively. Subjective and objective uncertainties related to the input information are handled through linking fuzziness and randomness together. Fuzzy decision making helps entail the linguistic uncertainty and a Monte Carlo simulation process is used to map stochastic uncertainty. With this framework, the overall performance of each alternative is calculated using an Order Weighted Averaging (OWA) aggregation operator accounting for decision makers' experience and opinions. Finally, ranking is achieved by conducting pair-wise comparison of management alternatives. This has been done on the basis of the risk defined by the probability of obtaining an acceptable ranking and mean difference in total performance for the pair of management alternatives. The proposed methodology is tested in a real-world hydrosystem, to find effective and robust intervention strategies for the management of a coastal aquifer system affected by saltwater intrusion due to excessive groundwater

  19. Accounting for uncertainty factors in biodiversity impact assessment: lessons from a case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geneletti, D.; Beinat, E.; Chung, C.F.; Fabbri, A.G.; Scholten, H.J.

    2003-01-01

    For an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) to effectively contribute to decision-making, it must include one crucial step: the estimation of the uncertainty factors affecting the impact evaluation and of their effect on the evaluation results. Knowledge of the uncertainties better orients the strategy of the decision-makers and underlines the most critical data or methodological steps of the procedure. Accounting for uncertainty factors is particularly relevant when dealing with ecological impacts, whose forecasts are typically affected by a high degree of simplification. By means of a case study dealing with the evaluation of road alternatives, this paper explores and discusses the main uncertainties that are related to the typical stages of a biodiversity impact assessment: uncertainty in the data that are used, in the methodologies that are applied, and in the value judgments provided by the experts. Subsequently, the effects of such uncertainty factors are tracked back to the result of the evaluation, i.e., to the relative performance of the project alternatives under consideration. This allows to test the sensitivity of the results, and consequently to provide a more informative ranking of the alternatives. The papers concludes by discussing the added-value for decision-making provided by uncertainty analysis within EIA

  20. An analysis of combined standard uncertainty for radiochemical measurements of environmental samples

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berne, A.

    1996-01-01

    It is anticipated that future data acquisitions intended for use in radiological risk assessments will require the incorporation of uncertainty analysis. Often, only one aliquot of the sample is taken and a single determination is made. Under these circumstances, the total uncertainty is calculated using the open-quotes propagation of errorsclose quotes approach. However, there is no agreement in the radioanalytical community as to the exact equations to use. The Quality Assurance/Metrology Division of the Environmental Measurements Laboratory has developed a systematic process to compute uncertainties in constituent components of the analytical procedure, as well as the combined standard uncertainty (CSU). The equations for computation are presented here, with examples of their use. They have also been incorporated into a code for use in the spreadsheet application, QuattroPro trademark. Using the spreadsheet with appropriate inputs permits an analysis of the variations in the CSU as a function of several different variables. The relative importance of the open-quotes counting uncertaintyclose quotes can also be ascertained

  1. Impact of Hydrogeological Uncertainty on Estimation of Environmental Risks Posed by Hydrocarbon Transportation Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciriello, V.; Lauriola, I.; Bonvicini, S.; Cozzani, V.; Di Federico, V.; Tartakovsky, Daniel M.

    2017-11-01

    Ubiquitous hydrogeological uncertainty undermines the veracity of quantitative predictions of soil and groundwater contamination due to accidental hydrocarbon spills from onshore pipelines. Such predictions, therefore, must be accompanied by quantification of predictive uncertainty, especially when they are used for environmental risk assessment. We quantify the impact of parametric uncertainty on quantitative forecasting of temporal evolution of two key risk indices, volumes of unsaturated and saturated soil contaminated by a surface spill of light nonaqueous-phase liquids. This is accomplished by treating the relevant uncertain parameters as random variables and deploying two alternative probabilistic models to estimate their effect on predictive uncertainty. A physics-based model is solved with a stochastic collocation method and is supplemented by a global sensitivity analysis. A second model represents the quantities of interest as polynomials of random inputs and has a virtually negligible computational cost, which enables one to explore any number of risk-related contamination scenarios. For a typical oil-spill scenario, our method can be used to identify key flow and transport parameters affecting the risk indices, to elucidate texture-dependent behavior of different soils, and to evaluate, with a degree of confidence specified by the decision-maker, the extent of contamination and the correspondent remediation costs.

  2. Method validation and uncertainty evaluation of organically bound tritium analysis in environmental sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yan-Jun; Zeng, Fan; Zhang, Bing; Chen, Chao-Feng; Qin, Hong-Juan; Wu, Lian-Sheng; Guo, Gui-Yin; Yang, Li-Tao; Shang-Guan, Zhi-Hong

    2014-08-01

    The analytical method for organically bound tritium (OBT) was developed in our laboratory. The optimized operating conditions and parameters were established for sample drying, special combustion, distillation, and measurement on a liquid scintillation spectrometer (LSC). Selected types of OBT samples such as rice, corn, rapeseed, fresh lettuce and pork were analyzed for method validation of recovery rate reproducibility, the minimum detection concentration, and the uncertainty for typical low level environmental sample was evaluated. The combustion water recovery rate of different dried environmental sample was kept at about 80%, the minimum detection concentration of OBT ranged from 0.61 to 0.89 Bq/kg (dry weight), depending on the hydrogen content. It showed that this method is suitable for OBT analysis of environmental sample with stable recovery rate, and the combustion water yield of a sample with weight about 40 g would provide sufficient quantity for measurement on LSC. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. The treatment of climate-driven environmental change and associated uncertainty in post-closure assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.D.

    1993-01-01

    The post-closure performance of radioactive waste repositories is influenced by a range of processes such as groundwater flow and fracture movement which are in turn affected by conditions in the surface environment. For deep repositories the period for which an assessment must be performed is in the order of 10 6 years. The geological record of the last 10 6 years shows that surface environmental conditions have varied considerably over such time-scales. A model of surface environmental change, known as TIME4, has been developed on behalf of the UK Department of the Environment for use with the probabilistic risk assessment code VANDAL. This paper describes the extent of surface environmental change, discusses possible driving mechanisms for such changes and summarises the processes which have been incorporated within the TIME4 model. The underlying cause of change in surface environment sub-systems is inferred to be climate change but considerable uncertainty remains over the mechanisms of such change. Methods for treating these uncertainties are described. (author)

  4. Robust stochastic fuzzy possibilistic programming for environmental decision making under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Xiaodong; Huang, Guo H.; Nie, Xianghui

    2009-01-01

    Nonpoint source (NPS) water pollution is one of serious environmental issues, especially within an agricultural system. This study aims to propose a robust chance-constrained fuzzy possibilistic programming (RCFPP) model for water quality management within an agricultural system, where solutions for farming area, manure/fertilizer application amount, and livestock husbandry size under different scenarios are obtained and interpreted. Through improving upon the existing fuzzy possibilistic programming, fuzzy robust programming and chance-constrained programming approaches, the RCFPP can effectively reflect the complex system features under uncertainty, where implications of water quality/quantity restrictions for achieving regional economic development objectives are studied. By delimiting the uncertain decision space through dimensional enlargement of the original fuzzy constraints, the RCFPP enhances the robustness of the optimization processes and resulting solutions. The results of the case study indicate that useful information can be obtained through the proposed RCFPP model for providing feasible decision schemes for different agricultural activities under different scenarios (combinations of different p-necessity and p i levels). A p-necessity level represents the certainty or necessity degree of the imprecise objective function, while a p i level means the probabilities at which the constraints will be violated. A desire to acquire high agricultural income would decrease the certainty degree of the event that maximization of the objective be satisfied, and potentially violate water management standards; willingness to accept low agricultural income will run into the risk of potential system failure. The decision variables under combined p-necessity and p i levels were useful for the decision makers to justify and/or adjust the decision schemes for the agricultural activities through incorporation of their implicit knowledge. The results also suggest that

  5. Punta Higuero environmental studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wood, E.D.; Youngbluth, M.J.; Nutt, M.E.; Yeaman, M.N.; Yoshioka, P.; Canoy, M.J.

    1975-01-01

    Site selection surveys and environmental research studies of seven coastal sites in Puerto Rico for construction of power generating facilities were carried out. Data are presented on the physical, chemical, and geological parameters of the Punta Higuero site, and the ecological parameters of zooplankton, benthic invertebrates, and fish communities. Plant associations are included. (U.S.)

  6. Risk assessment and uncertainty of the shrimp trawl fishery in the Gulf of California considering environmental variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis César Almendarez-Hernández

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The shrimp fishery off the Mexican Pacific coast is the country's most important fishery from the economic standpoint. However, it faces serious problems, including the fleet's overcapitalization and age, in addition to the environmental variability that affects the size of catches. Thus, this activity depends on a variety of factors that add uncertainty to the profitability of fishing vessels. This study aims to estimate the probability of success and economic risk of "type vessels" under two different environmental variability scenarios in the Gulf of California. The results from the economic simulation pointed to the vessel type used in Guaymas (Sonora as the most efficient one under a neutral climate change scenario, showing a homogeneous behaviour in physical characteristics and mode of operation. By contrast, under a scenario of a monotonic rise in sea surface temperature, the shrimp fishery faces a greater risk of incurring economic losses. The simulated climate behaviour scenarios revealed that the activity involves a moderate economic profitability under the neutral scenario; however, under the warming scenario, profitability may be low or even nil due to the risks and uncertainty resulting from the influence of environmental phenomena.

  7. Measuring the environmental benefits of hydrogen transportation fuel cycles under uncertainty about external costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chernyavs'ka, Liliya; Gulli, Francesco

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we attempt to measure the environmental benefits of hydrogen deployment in the transportation sector. We compare the hydrogen pathways to the conventional transportation fuel cycles in terms of external costs, estimated using the results of the most accurate methodologies available in this field. The central values of performed analysis bring us ambiguous results. The external cost of the best conventional solution ('oil to diesel hybrid internal-combustion engine') in some cases is just higher and in others just lower than that of the best fossil fuel to hydrogen solution ('natural gas to hydrogen fuel cell'). Nevertheless, by accounting for the uncertainty about external costs, we are able to remove this ambiguity highlighting that the hydrogen pathway provides significant environmental benefits ,especially in densely populated areas, assuming 100% city driving.

  8. [Environmental uncertainty and arousal/stress as the direct determinants of animal behaviour].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popov, S V

    2010-01-01

    A model of direct behavioural mechanisms is suggested. The suggestion is founded on the following prerequisites: the law of optimum arousal by Yerkes-Dodson; the data on animals' purposeful striving towards the optimum; and the data on effect of stimuli uncertainty (unpredictability and/or uncontrollability) on susceptibility to the stimuli. The key postulate of the model is animals' ability to affect the environment uncertainty with their behaviour and, hence, to change their susceptibility to various stimuli and optimize their stress/arousal level. This function of behaviour had never been discussed and seems to be rather important for proximal behavioural mechanisms and for forming direct motives of behaviour. Optimization of arousal level may be viewed as "universal benefit" at the level of direct behavioural mechanisms (similar to "joint genetic fitness" at the level of evolutional mechanisms). Within the model framework it is possible to take up some sophisticated aspects of ethology such as social relations forming, "begging for punishment", "zoo stereotypy", and so on. Among verifiable predictions that can be derived from its analysis, the following ones are worthwhile: (1) the stronger of two similar social relations cannot be more stressful than the weaker one; (2) the intensity of marking activity never increases as arousal/stress level decreases; (3) stress/arousal level of an animal having been experienced "zoo stereotypy" for a long time can never be higher than that of a conspecific individual showing the behaviour for the first time; (4) the rate of "begging for punishment" behaviour of an individual should positively correlate with environmental uncertainty; (5) arousal/stress level of an individual looking for novelty can never be higher than arousal/stress level of the same individual when avoiding novelty; (6) the striving of a specimen for displaying the behaviour promoting an increase in uncertainty can be suppressed by raising the

  9. The influence of uncertainties of measurements in laboratory performance evaluation by intercomparison program in radionuclide analyses of environmental samples

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tauhata, L.; Vianna, M.E.; Oliveira, A.E. de; Clain, A.F.; Ferreira, A.C.M.; Bernardes, E.M.

    2000-01-01

    The accuracy and precision of results of the radionuclide analyses in environmental samples are widely claimed internationally due to its consequences in the decision process coupled to evaluation of environmental pollution, impact, internal and external population exposure. These characteristics of measurement of the laboratories can be shown clearly using intercomparison data, due to the existence of a reference value and the need of three determinations for each analysis. In intercomparison studies accuracy in radionuclide assays in low-level environmental samples has usually been the main focus in performance evaluation and it can be estimated by taking into account the deviation between the experimental laboratory mean value and the reference value. The laboratory repeatability of measurements or their standard deviation is seldom included in performance evaluation. In order to show the influence of the uncertainties in performance evaluation of the laboratories, data of 22 intercomparison runs which distributed 790 spiked environmental samples to 20 Brazilian participant laboratories were compared, using the 'Normalised Standard Deviation' as statistical criteria for performance evaluation of U.S.EPA. It mainly takes into account the laboratory accuracy and the performance evaluation using the same data classified by normalised standard deviation modified by a weight reactor that includes the individual laboratory uncertainty. The results show a relative decrease in laboratory performance in each radionuclide assay: 1.8% for 65 Zn, 2.8% for 40 K, 3.4 for 60 Co, 3.7% for 134 Cs, 4.0% for 137 Cs, 4.4% for Th and U nat , 4.5% for 3 H, 6.3% for 133 Ba, 8.6% for 90 Sr, 10.6% for Gross Alpha, 10.9% for 106 Ru, 11.1% for 226 Ra, 11.5% for Gross Beta and 13.6% for 228 Ra. The changes in the parameters of the statistical distribution function were negligible and the distribution remained as Gaussian type for all radionuclides analysed. Data analyses in terms of

  10. Numerical Continuation Methods for Intrusive Uncertainty Quantification Studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Safta, Cosmin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Najm, Habib N. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Phipps, Eric Todd [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2014-09-01

    Rigorous modeling of engineering systems relies on efficient propagation of uncertainty from input parameters to model outputs. In recent years, there has been substantial development of probabilistic polynomial chaos (PC) Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) methods, enabling studies in expensive computational models. One approach, termed ”intrusive”, involving reformulation of the governing equations, has been found to have superior computational performance compared to non-intrusive sampling-based methods in relevant large-scale problems, particularly in the context of emerging architectures. However, the utility of intrusive methods has been severely limited due to detrimental numerical instabilities associated with strong nonlinear physics. Previous methods for stabilizing these constructions tend to add unacceptably high computational costs, particularly in problems with many uncertain parameters. In order to address these challenges, we propose to adapt and improve numerical continuation methods for the robust time integration of intrusive PC system dynamics. We propose adaptive methods, starting with a small uncertainty for which the model has stable behavior and gradually moving to larger uncertainty where the instabilities are rampant, in a manner that provides a suitable solution.

  11. Monte Carlo parameter studies and uncertainty analyses with MCNP5

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, F. B.; Sweezy, J. E.; Hayes, R.

    2004-01-01

    A software tool called mcnp p study has been developed to automate the setup, execution, and collection of results from a series of MCNP5 Monte Carlo calculations. This tool provides a convenient means of performing parameter studies, total uncertainty analyses, parallel job execution on clusters, stochastic geometry modeling, and other types of calculations where a series of MCNP5 jobs must be performed with varying problem input specifications. (authors)

  12. Sensitivity and uncertainty studies of the CRAC2 computer code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kocher, D.C.; Ward, R.C.; Killough, G.G.; Dunning, D.E. Jr.; Hicks, B.B.; Hosker, R.P. Jr.; Ku, J.Y.; Rao, K.S.

    1987-01-01

    The authors have studied the sensitivity of health impacts from nuclear reactor accidents, as predicted by the CRAC2 computer code, to the following sources of uncertainty: (1) the model for plume rise, (2) the model for wet deposition, (3) the meteorological bin-sampling procedure for selecting weather sequences with rain, (4) the dose conversion factors for inhalation as affected by uncertainties in the particle size of the carrier aerosol and the clearance rates of radionuclides from the respiratory tract, (5) the weathering half-time for external ground-surface exposure, and (6) the transfer coefficients for terrestrial foodchain pathways. Predicted health impacts usually showed little sensitivity to use of an alternative plume-rise model or a modified rain-bin structure in bin-sampling. Health impacts often were quite sensitive to use of an alternative wet-deposition model in single-trial runs with rain during plume passage, but were less sensitive to the model in bin-sampling runs. Uncertainties in the inhalation dose conversion factors had important effects on early injuries in single-trial runs. Latent cancer fatalities were moderately sensitive to uncertainties in the weathering half-time for ground-surface exposures, but showed little sensitivity to the transfer coefficients for terrestrial foodchain pathways. Sensitivities of CRAC2 predictions to uncertainties in the models and parameters also depended on the magnitude of the source term, and some of the effects on early health effects were comparable to those that were due only to selection of different sets of weather sequences in bin-sampling

  13. How Environmental Uncertainty Moderates the Effect of Relative Advantage and Perceived Credibility on the Adoption of Mobile Health Services by Chinese Organizations in the Big Data Era.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xing; Zhang, Xing

    2016-01-01

    Despite the importance of adoption of mobile health services by an organization on the diffusion of mobile technology in the big data era, it has received minimal attention in literature. This study investigates how relative advantage and perceived credibility affect an organization's adoption of mobile health services, as well as how environmental uncertainty changes the relationship of relative advantage and perceived credibility with adoption. A research model that integrates relative advantage, perceived credibility, environmental uncertainty, and an organization's intention to use mobile health service is developed. Quantitative data are collected from senior managers and information systems managers in 320 Chinese healthcare organizations. The empirical findings show that while relative advantage and perceived credibility both have positive effects on an organization's intention to use mobile health services, relative advantage plays a more important role than perceived credibility. Moreover, environmental uncertainty positively moderates the effect of relative advantage on an organization's adoption of mobile health services. Thus, mobile health services in environments characterized with high levels of uncertainty are more likely to be adopted because of relative advantage than in environments with low levels of uncertainty.

  14. How Environmental Uncertainty Moderates the Effect of Relative Advantage and Perceived Credibility on the Adoption of Mobile Health Services by Chinese Organizations in the Big Data Era

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xing Chen

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Despite the importance of adoption of mobile health services by an organization on the diffusion of mobile technology in the big data era, it has received minimal attention in literature. This study investigates how relative advantage and perceived credibility affect an organization’s adoption of mobile health services, as well as how environmental uncertainty changes the relationship of relative advantage and perceived credibility with adoption. A research model that integrates relative advantage, perceived credibility, environmental uncertainty, and an organization’s intention to use mobile health service is developed. Quantitative data are collected from senior managers and information systems managers in 320 Chinese healthcare organizations. The empirical findings show that while relative advantage and perceived credibility both have positive effects on an organization’s intention to use mobile health services, relative advantage plays a more important role than perceived credibility. Moreover, environmental uncertainty positively moderates the effect of relative advantage on an organization’s adoption of mobile health services. Thus, mobile health services in environments characterized with high levels of uncertainty are more likely to be adopted because of relative advantage than in environments with low levels of uncertainty.

  15. Sensitivity and uncertainty studies of the CRAC2 computer code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kocher, D.C.; Ward, R.C.; Killough, G.G.; Dunning, D.E. Jr.; Hicks, B.B.; Hosker, R.P. Jr.; Ku, J.Y.; Rao, K.S.

    1985-05-01

    This report presents a study of the sensitivity of early fatalities, early injuries, latent cancer fatalities, and economic costs for hypothetical nuclear reactor accidents as predicted by the CRAC2 computer code (CRAC = Calculation of Reactor Accident Consequences) to uncertainties in selected models and parameters used in the code. The sources of uncertainty that were investigated in the CRAC2 sensitivity studies include (1) the model for plume rise, (2) the model for wet deposition, (3) the procedure for meteorological bin-sampling involving the selection of weather sequences that contain rain, (4) the dose conversion factors for inhalation as they are affected by uncertainties in the physical and chemical form of the released radionuclides, (5) the weathering half-time for external ground-surface exposure, and (6) the transfer coefficients for estimating exposures via terrestrial foodchain pathways. The sensitivity studies were performed for selected radionuclide releases, hourly meteorological data, land-use data, a fixed non-uniform population distribution, a single evacuation model, and various release heights and sensible heat rates. Two important general conclusions from the sensitivity and uncertainty studies are as follows: (1) The large effects on predicted early fatalities and early injuries that were observed in some of the sensitivity studies apparently are due in part to the presence of thresholds in the dose-response models. Thus, the observed sensitivities depend in part on the magnitude of the radionuclide releases. (2) Some of the effects on predicted early fatalities and early injuries that were observed in the sensitivity studies were comparable to effects that were due only to the selection of different sets of weather sequences in bin-sampling runs. 47 figs., 50 tabs

  16. Measurement uncertainties of long-term 222Rn averages at environmental levels using alpha track detectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, R.A.

    1987-01-01

    More than 250 replicate measurements of outdoor Rn concentration integrated over quarterly periods were made to estimate the random component of the measurement uncertainty of Track Etch detectors (type F) under outdoor conditions. The measurements were performed around three U mill tailings piles to provide a range of environmental concentrations. The measurement uncertainty was typically greater than could be accounted for by Poisson counting statistics. Average coefficients of variation of the order of 20% for all measured concentrations were found. It is concluded that alpha track detectors can be successfully used to determine annual average outdoor Rn concentrations through the use of careful quality control procedures. These include rapid deployment and collection of detectors to minimize unintended Rn exposure, careful packaging and shipping to and from the manufacturer, use of direct sunlight shields for all detectors and careful and secure mounting of all detectors in as similar a manner as possible. The use of multiple (at least duplicate) detectors at each monitoring location and an exposure period of no less than one quarter are suggested

  17. Software Uncertainty in Integrated Environmental Modelling: the role of Semantics and Open Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Rigo, Daniele

    2013-04-01

    Computational aspects increasingly shape environmental sciences [1]. Actually, transdisciplinary modelling of complex and uncertain environmental systems is challenging computational science (CS) and also the science-policy interface [2-7]. Large spatial-scale problems falling within this category - i.e. wide-scale transdisciplinary modelling for environment (WSTMe) [8-10] - often deal with factors (a) for which deep-uncertainty [2,11-13] may prevent usual statistical analysis of modelled quantities and need different ways for providing policy-making with science-based support. Here, practical recommendations are proposed for tempering a peculiar - not infrequently underestimated - source of uncertainty. Software errors in complex WSTMe may subtly affect the outcomes with possible consequences even on collective environmental decision-making. Semantic transparency in CS [2,8,10,14,15] and free software [16,17] are discussed as possible mitigations (b) . Software uncertainty, black-boxes and free software. Integrated natural resources modelling and management (INRMM) [29] frequently exploits chains of nontrivial data-transformation models (D- TM), each of them affected by uncertainties and errors. Those D-TM chains may be packaged as monolithic specialized models, maybe only accessible as black-box executables (if accessible at all) [50]. For end-users, black-boxes merely transform inputs in the final outputs, relying on classical peer-reviewed publications for describing the internal mechanism. While software tautologically plays a vital role in CS, it is often neglected in favour of more theoretical aspects. This paradox has been provocatively described as "the invisibility of software in published science. Almost all published papers required some coding, but almost none mention software, let alone include or link to source code" [51]. Recently, this primacy of theory over reality [52-54] has been challenged by new emerging hybrid approaches [55] and by the

  18. Evaluation of Uncertainty and Sensitivity in Environmental Modeling at a Radioactive Waste Management Site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stockton, T. B.; Black, P. K.; Catlett, K. M.; Tauxe, J. D.

    2002-05-01

    Environmental modeling is an essential component in the evaluation of regulatory compliance of radioactive waste management sites (RWMSs) at the Nevada Test Site in southern Nevada, USA. For those sites that are currently operating, further goals are to support integrated decision analysis for the development of acceptance criteria for future wastes, as well as site maintenance, closure, and monitoring. At these RWMSs, the principal pathways for release of contamination to the environment are upward towards the ground surface rather than downwards towards the deep water table. Biotic processes, such as burrow excavation and plant uptake and turnover, dominate this upward transport. A combined multi-pathway contaminant transport and risk assessment model was constructed using the GoldSim modeling platform. This platform facilitates probabilistic analysis of environmental systems, and is especially well suited for assessments involving radionuclide decay chains. The model employs probabilistic definitions of key parameters governing contaminant transport, with the goals of quantifying cumulative uncertainty in the estimation of performance measures and providing information necessary to perform sensitivity analyses. This modeling differs from previous radiological performance assessments (PAs) in that the modeling parameters are intended to be representative of the current knowledge, and the uncertainty in that knowledge, of parameter values rather than reflective of a conservative assessment approach. While a conservative PA may be sufficient to demonstrate regulatory compliance, a parametrically honest PA can also be used for more general site decision-making. In particular, a parametrically honest probabilistic modeling approach allows both uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to be explicitly coupled to the decision framework using a single set of model realizations. For example, sensitivity analysis provides a guide for analyzing the value of collecting more

  19. Environmental health studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Easterly, C.E.; Shank, K.E.

    1978-01-01

    The two major thrusts of the environmental health studies have been in the areas of health physics aspects of fusion power and methodology for assessing health effects related to nuclear facilities. Researchers were unable to discern a dose-response relationship or to find adverse health effects in the local population around nuclear facilities which might be related to radiation exposure. A second study analyzed the trends in incidence of cancer, congenital malformation, and fetal and infant mortality for Oak Ridge, Anderson County, and Roane County relative to Tennessee. Finally, a more in-depth study on congenital malformations and fetal mortality trends for nine East Tennessee counties surrounding Oak Ridge was completed. The objective of the Health Physics Aspects of Fusion Power Program is to provide, on a timely basis, scientific information and technical evaluations on the potential impacts of fusion power to occupational workers and to members of the public. The primary areas of study in this program during the past year have been (1) factors affecting calculations of dose resulting from a release of tritium, (2) an assessment of the potential for reducing occupational risk from exposures to tritium, and (3) experimental studies of tritium conversion from molecular hydrogen to tritiated water

  20. Uncertainty propagation in probabilistic risk assessment: A comparative study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmed, S.; Metcalf, D.R.; Pegram, J.W.

    1982-01-01

    Three uncertainty propagation techniques, namely method of moments, discrete probability distribution (DPD), and Monte Carlo simulation, generally used in probabilistic risk assessment, are compared and conclusions drawn in terms of the accuracy of the results. For small uncertainty in the basic event unavailabilities, the three methods give similar results. For large uncertainty, the method of moments is in error, and the appropriate method is to propagate uncertainty in the discrete form either by DPD method without sampling or by Monte Carlo. (orig.)

  1. An integrated, probabilistic model for improved seasonal forecasting of agricultural crop yield under environmental uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nathaniel K. Newlands

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available We present a novel forecasting method for generating agricultural crop yield forecasts at the seasonal and regional-scale, integrating agroclimate variables and remotely-sensed indices. The method devises a multivariate statistical model to compute bias and uncertainty in forecasted yield at the Census of Agricultural Region (CAR scale across the Canadian Prairies. The method uses robust variable-selection to select the best predictors within spatial subregions. Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC simulation and random forest-tree machine learning techniques are then integrated to generate sequential forecasts through the growing season. Cross-validation of the model was performed by hindcasting/backcasting it and comparing its forecasts against available historical data (1987-2011 for spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.. The model was also validated for the 2012 growing season by comparing its forecast skill at the CAR, provincial and Canadian Prairie region scales against available statistical survey data. Mean percent departures between wheat yield forecasted were under-estimated by 1-4 % in mid-season and over-estimated by 1 % at the end of the growing season. This integrated methodology offers a consistent, generalizable approach for sequentially forecasting crop yield at the regional-scale. It provides a statistically robust, yet flexible way to concurrently adjust to data-rich and data-sparse situations, adaptively select different predictors of yield to changing levels of environmental uncertainty, and to update forecasts sequentially so as to incorporate new data as it becomes available. This integrated method also provides additional statistical support for assessing the accuracy and reliability of model-based crop yield forecasts in time and space.

  2. A risk explicit interval linear programming model for uncertainty-based environmental economic optimization in the Lake Fuxian watershed, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiaoling; Huang, Kai; Zou, Rui; Liu, Yong; Yu, Yajuan

    2013-01-01

    The conflict of water environment protection and economic development has brought severe water pollution and restricted the sustainable development in the watershed. A risk explicit interval linear programming (REILP) method was used to solve integrated watershed environmental-economic optimization problem. Interval linear programming (ILP) and REILP models for uncertainty-based environmental economic optimization at the watershed scale were developed for the management of Lake Fuxian watershed, China. Scenario analysis was introduced into model solution process to ensure the practicality and operability of optimization schemes. Decision makers' preferences for risk levels can be expressed through inputting different discrete aspiration level values into the REILP model in three periods under two scenarios. Through balancing the optimal system returns and corresponding system risks, decision makers can develop an efficient industrial restructuring scheme based directly on the window of "low risk and high return efficiency" in the trade-off curve. The representative schemes at the turning points of two scenarios were interpreted and compared to identify a preferable planning alternative, which has the relatively low risks and nearly maximum benefits. This study provides new insights and proposes a tool, which was REILP, for decision makers to develop an effectively environmental economic optimization scheme in integrated watershed management.

  3. A Risk Explicit Interval Linear Programming Model for Uncertainty-Based Environmental Economic Optimization in the Lake Fuxian Watershed, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoling Zhang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The conflict of water environment protection and economic development has brought severe water pollution and restricted the sustainable development in the watershed. A risk explicit interval linear programming (REILP method was used to solve integrated watershed environmental-economic optimization problem. Interval linear programming (ILP and REILP models for uncertainty-based environmental economic optimization at the watershed scale were developed for the management of Lake Fuxian watershed, China. Scenario analysis was introduced into model solution process to ensure the practicality and operability of optimization schemes. Decision makers’ preferences for risk levels can be expressed through inputting different discrete aspiration level values into the REILP model in three periods under two scenarios. Through balancing the optimal system returns and corresponding system risks, decision makers can develop an efficient industrial restructuring scheme based directly on the window of “low risk and high return efficiency” in the trade-off curve. The representative schemes at the turning points of two scenarios were interpreted and compared to identify a preferable planning alternative, which has the relatively low risks and nearly maximum benefits. This study provides new insights and proposes a tool, which was REILP, for decision makers to develop an effectively environmental economic optimization scheme in integrated watershed management.

  4. Modeling the effects of uncertainty on fear of nuclear waste: Differences among science, business and environmental group members

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bassett, G.; Jenkins-Smith, H.

    1992-10-01

    This paper analyzes the relationships between the subjective assessment of riskiness of managing nuclear waste and the level of certainty regarding the assessment. Uncertainty can be operationalized in two ways. The direct approach asks a person to assess their own subjective beliefs about a potential hazard. The indirect approach assesses how readily an individual will change his or her beliefs when confronted with new information that conflicts with prior beliefs. This paper tests for the relationships between these two distinct operationalizations of uncertainty and overall assessments of the risks posed by radioactive wastes. First we analyze the relationships between stated levels of uncertainty about the effects of radiation on the level of perceived risks from radioactive wastes. Second, we assess the linkage between willingness to alter prior beliefs about the risks of radioactive wastes in response to new information provided by ''a neutral source'' (or responsiveness of beliefs) and uncertainty. Using data taken from random mail surveys of members of scientific, business, and environmental groups in Colorado and New Mexico in the summer of 1990, we test hypotheses that (a) greater uncertainty is associated with greater perceived risks, and (b) greater responsiveness of beliefs to new information is associated with greater uncertainty. The import of these hypotheses concerns the dynamics of uncertainty in controversial technical policy issues, wherein perceived risks are a primary ingredient in policy positions taken by participants in policy disputes

  5. Modeling the effects of uncertainty on fear of nuclear waste: Differences among science, business and environmental group members

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bassett, G. [Illinois Univ., Chicago, IL (United States). Dept. of Economics]|[Argonne National Lab., IL (United States); Jenkins-Smith, H. [New Mexico Univ., Albuquerque, NM (United States). Dept. of Political Science]|[Argonne National Lab., IL (United States)

    1992-10-01

    This paper analyzes the relationships between the subjective assessment of riskiness of managing nuclear waste and the level of certainty regarding the assessment. Uncertainty can be operationalized in two ways. The direct approach asks a person to assess their own subjective beliefs about a potential hazard. The indirect approach assesses how readily an individual will change his or her beliefs when confronted with new information that conflicts with prior beliefs. This paper tests for the relationships between these two distinct operationalizations of uncertainty and overall assessments of the risks posed by radioactive wastes. First we analyze the relationships between stated levels of uncertainty about the effects of radiation on the level of perceived risks from radioactive wastes. Second, we assess the linkage between willingness to alter prior beliefs about the risks of radioactive wastes in response to new information provided by ``a neutral source`` (or responsiveness of beliefs) and uncertainty. Using data taken from random mail surveys of members of scientific, business, and environmental groups in Colorado and New Mexico in the summer of 1990, we test hypotheses that (a) greater uncertainty is associated with greater perceived risks, and (b) greater responsiveness of beliefs to new information is associated with greater uncertainty. The import of these hypotheses concerns the dynamics of uncertainty in controversial technical policy issues, wherein perceived risks are a primary ingredient in policy positions taken by participants in policy disputes.

  6. Modeling the effects of uncertainty on fear of nuclear waste: Differences among science, business and environmental group members

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bassett, G. (Illinois Univ., Chicago, IL (United States). Dept. of Economics Argonne National Lab., IL (United States)); Jenkins-Smith, H. (New Mexico Univ., Albuquerque, NM (United States). Dept. of Political Science Argonne National Lab., IL (United States))

    1992-10-01

    This paper analyzes the relationships between the subjective assessment of riskiness of managing nuclear waste and the level of certainty regarding the assessment. Uncertainty can be operationalized in two ways. The direct approach asks a person to assess their own subjective beliefs about a potential hazard. The indirect approach assesses how readily an individual will change his or her beliefs when confronted with new information that conflicts with prior beliefs. This paper tests for the relationships between these two distinct operationalizations of uncertainty and overall assessments of the risks posed by radioactive wastes. First we analyze the relationships between stated levels of uncertainty about the effects of radiation on the level of perceived risks from radioactive wastes. Second, we assess the linkage between willingness to alter prior beliefs about the risks of radioactive wastes in response to new information provided by a neutral source'' (or responsiveness of beliefs) and uncertainty. Using data taken from random mail surveys of members of scientific, business, and environmental groups in Colorado and New Mexico in the summer of 1990, we test hypotheses that (a) greater uncertainty is associated with greater perceived risks, and (b) greater responsiveness of beliefs to new information is associated with greater uncertainty. The import of these hypotheses concerns the dynamics of uncertainty in controversial technical policy issues, wherein perceived risks are a primary ingredient in policy positions taken by participants in policy disputes.

  7. Variations in environmental tritium doses due to meteorological data averaging and uncertainties in pathway model parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kock, A.

    1996-05-01

    The objectives of this research are: (1) to calculate and compare off site doses from atmospheric tritium releases at the Savannah River Site using monthly versus 5 year meteorological data and annual source terms, including additional seasonal and site specific parameters not included in present annual assessments; and (2) to calculate the range of the above dose estimates based on distributions in model parameters given by uncertainty estimates found in the literature. Consideration will be given to the sensitivity of parameters given in former studies.

  8. Variations in environmental tritium doses due to meteorological data averaging and uncertainties in pathway model parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kock, A.

    1996-05-01

    The objectives of this research are: (1) to calculate and compare off site doses from atmospheric tritium releases at the Savannah River Site using monthly versus 5 year meteorological data and annual source terms, including additional seasonal and site specific parameters not included in present annual assessments; and (2) to calculate the range of the above dose estimates based on distributions in model parameters given by uncertainty estimates found in the literature. Consideration will be given to the sensitivity of parameters given in former studies

  9. Estimating the uncertainty from sampling in pollution crime investigation: The importance of metrology in the forensic interpretation of environmental data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barazzetti Barbieri, Cristina; de Souza Sarkis, Jorge Eduardo

    2018-07-01

    The forensic interpretation of environmental analytical data is usually challenging due to the high geospatial variability of these data. The measurements' uncertainty includes contributions from the sampling and from the sample handling and preparation processes. These contributions are often disregarded in analytical techniques results' quality assurance. A pollution crime investigation case was used to carry out a methodology able to address these uncertainties in two different environmental compartments, freshwater sediments and landfill leachate. The methodology used to estimate the uncertainty was the duplicate method (that replicates predefined steps of the measurement procedure in order to assess its precision) and the parameters used to investigate the pollution were metals (Cr, Cu, Ni, and Zn) in the leachate, the suspect source, and in the sediment, the possible sink. The metal analysis results were compared to statutory limits and it was demonstrated that Cr and Ni concentrations in sediment samples exceeded the threshold levels at all sites downstream the pollution sources, considering the expanded uncertainty U of the measurements and a probability of contamination >0.975, at most sites. Cu and Zn concentrations were above the statutory limits at two sites, but the classification was inconclusive considering the uncertainties of the measurements. Metal analyses in leachate revealed that Cr concentrations were above the statutory limits with a probability of contamination >0.975 in all leachate ponds while the Cu, Ni and Zn probability of contamination was below 0.025. The results demonstrated that the estimation of the sampling uncertainty, which was the dominant component of the combined uncertainty, is required for a comprehensive interpretation of the environmental analyses results, particularly in forensic cases. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Parameter uncertainty in simulations of extreme precipitation and attribution studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timmermans, B.; Collins, W. D.; O'Brien, T. A.; Risser, M. D.

    2017-12-01

    The attribution of extreme weather events, such as heavy rainfall, to anthropogenic influence involves the analysis of their probability in simulations of climate. The climate models used however, such as the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), employ approximate physics that gives rise to "parameter uncertainty"—uncertainty about the most accurate or optimal values of numerical parameters within the model. In particular, approximate parameterisations for convective processes are well known to be influential in the simulation of precipitation extremes. Towards examining the impact of this source of uncertainty on attribution studies, we investigate the importance of components—through their associated tuning parameters—of parameterisations relating to deep and shallow convection, and cloud and aerosol microphysics in CAM. We hypothesise that as numerical resolution is increased the change in proportion of variance induced by perturbed parameters associated with the respective components is consistent with the decreasing applicability of the underlying hydrostatic assumptions. For example, that the relative influence of deep convection should diminish as resolution approaches that where convection can be resolved numerically ( 10 km). We quantify the relationship between the relative proportion of variance induced and numerical resolution by conducting computer experiments that examine precipitation extremes over the contiguous U.S. In order to mitigate the enormous computational burden of running ensembles of long climate simulations, we use variable-resolution CAM and employ both extreme value theory and surrogate modelling techniques ("emulators"). We discuss the implications of the relationship between parameterised convective processes and resolution both in the context of attribution studies and progression towards models that fully resolve convection.

  11. Generic uncertainty model for DETRA for environmental consequence analyses. Application and sample outputs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suolanen, V.; Ilvonen, M.

    1998-10-01

    Computer model DETRA applies a dynamic compartment modelling approach. The compartment structure of each considered application can be tailored individually. This flexible modelling method makes it possible that the transfer of radionuclides can be considered in various cases: aquatic environment and related food chains, terrestrial environment, food chains in general and food stuffs, body burden analyses of humans, etc. In the former study on this subject, modernization of the user interface of DETRA code was carried out. This new interface works in Windows environment and the usability of the code has been improved. The objective of this study has been to further develop and diversify the user interface so that also probabilistic uncertainty analyses can be performed by DETRA. The most common probability distributions are available: uniform, truncated Gaussian and triangular. The corresponding logarithmic distributions are also available. All input data related to a considered case can be varied, although this option is seldomly needed. The calculated output values can be selected as monitored values at certain simulation time points defined by the user. The results of a sensitivity run are immediately available after simulation as graphical presentations. These outcomes are distributions generated for varied parameters, density functions of monitored parameters and complementary cumulative density functions (CCDF). An application considered in connection with this work was the estimation of contamination of milk caused by radioactive deposition of Cs (10 kBq(Cs-137)/m 2 ). The multi-sequence calculation model applied consisted of a pasture modelling part and a dormant season modelling part. These two sequences were linked periodically simulating the realistic practice of care taking of domestic animals in Finland. The most important parameters were varied in this exercise. The performed diversifying of the user interface of DETRA code seems to provide an easily

  12. Cross-section uncertainty study of the NET shielding blanket

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaeger, J.F.

    1990-11-01

    The Next European Torus (NET) is foreseen as the next step in the European development towards the controlled use of thermonuclear fusion. Detail design of the shielding blanket protecting the peripherals, more especially the super-conducting coils, is well advanced. A cross-section uncertainty, i.e. a study of the expected inaccuracy due to the nuclear cross-section data, has been done for the neutron-gamma reactions in the insulation of the coils for such a design. As an extension of previous work on the NET shielding blanket (e.g. MCNP calculations), it was deemed necessary to estimate the accuracy attainable with transport codes in view of the uncertainties in microscopic cross-sections. The code used, SENSIBL, is based on perturbation theory and uses covariance files, COVFILS-2, for the cross-section data. This necessitates forward and adjoint flux calculations with a transport code (e.g. ONEDANT, TRISM) and folding the information contained in these coupled fluxes with the accuracy estimates of the evaluators of the ENDF/B-V files. Transport, P 5 S 12 , calculations were done with the ONEDANT code, for a shielding blanket design with 714 MW plasma fusion power. Several runs were done to obtain well converged forward and adjoint fluxes (ca. 1%). The forward and adjoint integral responses agree to 2%, which is consistent with the above accuracy. The n-γ response was chosen as it is typical of the general accuracy and is available for all materials considered. The present version of SENSIBL allows direct use of the geometric files of ONEDANT (or TRISM) which simplifies the input. Covariance data is not available at present in COVFILS-2 for all of the materials considered. Only H, C, N, O, Al, Si, Fe, Ni, and Pb could be considered, the big absentee being copper. The resulting uncertainty for the neutron-gamma reactions in the insulation of the coil was found to be 17%. Simulating copper by aluminium produces a negligible increase in the uncertainty, mainly

  13. Planning uncertainties, market risks and new environmental choices: Winning least cost planning combinations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Violette, D.; Lang, C.

    1990-01-01

    Utility demand and supply-side planners will face new challenges from environmental regulations. Under current proposals, every ton of pollutant will have a cost to utilities, not just the tons that put them over the allowable limit. Planners will have to account for these new costs. To do this, planners need to start tracking emissions implementation actions today, and begin strategies for future regulatory changes. Current legislative proposals include a tax on the carbon content of fuels to curb emissions of greenhouse gases and substantial reductions in sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide emissions. The important issue for planners is the flexible compliance requirements within these regulatory changes. The acid rain proposals, for example, include a market-based emissions trading system for emissions allowances. Whenever there is a competitive market, there are market risks, and potential winners and losers. Utilities need to be prepared to analyze and mitigate these risks. Integrated least cost planing is one way a utility will have to meet this challenge. Planning involves uncertainty and risk. The wide array of compliance choices create countless combinations of strategies for utilities to comply with the new emissions regulations. This paper discusses new compliance strategies, demand-side management (DSM) as a compliance strategy, solutions to DSM traps, and the compliance strategy game

  14. Application of an uncertainty analysis approach to strategic environmental assessment for urban planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yi; Chen, Jining; He, Weiqi; Tong, Qingyuan; Li, Wangfeng

    2010-04-15

    Urban planning has been widely applied as a regulatory measure to guide a city's construction and management. It represents official expectations on future population and economic growth and land use over the urban area. No doubt, significant variations often occur between planning schemes and actual development; in particular in China, the world's largest developing country experiencing rapid urbanization and industrialization. This in turn leads to difficulty in estimating the environmental consequences of the urban plan. Aiming to quantitatively analyze the uncertain environmental impacts of the urban plan's implementation, this article developed an integrated methodology combining a scenario analysis approach and a stochastic simulation technique for strategic environmental assessment (SEA). Based on industrial development scenarios, Monte Carlo sampling is applied to generate all possibilities of the spatial distribution of newly emerged industries. All related environmental consequences can be further estimated given the industrial distributions as input to environmental quality models. By applying a HSY algorithm, environmentally unacceptable urban growth, regarding both economic development and land use spatial layout, can be systematically identified, providing valuable information to urban planners and decision makers. A case study in Dalian Municipality, Northeast China, is used to illustrate applicability of this methodology. The impacts of Urban Development Plan for Dalian Municipality (2003-2020) (UDP) on atmospheric environment are also discussed in this article.

  15. A Preliminary Study on Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis with Statistic Method: Uncertainty Analysis with Cross Section Sampling from Lognormal Distribution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Song, Myung Sub; Kim, Song Hyun; Kim, Jong Kyung [Hanyang Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Noh, Jae Man [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-10-15

    The uncertainty evaluation with statistical method is performed by repetition of transport calculation with sampling the directly perturbed nuclear data. Hence, the reliable uncertainty result can be obtained by analyzing the results of the numerous transport calculations. One of the problems in the uncertainty analysis with the statistical approach is known as that the cross section sampling from the normal (Gaussian) distribution with relatively large standard deviation leads to the sampling error of the cross sections such as the sampling of the negative cross section. Some collection methods are noted; however, the methods can distort the distribution of the sampled cross sections. In this study, a sampling method of the nuclear data is proposed by using lognormal distribution. After that, the criticality calculations with sampled nuclear data are performed and the results are compared with that from the normal distribution which is conventionally used in the previous studies. In this study, the statistical sampling method of the cross section with the lognormal distribution was proposed to increase the sampling accuracy without negative sampling error. Also, a stochastic cross section sampling and writing program was developed. For the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, the cross section sampling was pursued with the normal and lognormal distribution. The uncertainties, which are caused by covariance of (n,.) cross sections, were evaluated by solving GODIVA problem. The results show that the sampling method with lognormal distribution can efficiently solve the negative sampling problem referred in the previous studies. It is expected that this study will contribute to increase the accuracy of the sampling-based uncertainty analysis.

  16. A Preliminary Study on Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis with Statistic Method: Uncertainty Analysis with Cross Section Sampling from Lognormal Distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song, Myung Sub; Kim, Song Hyun; Kim, Jong Kyung; Noh, Jae Man

    2013-01-01

    The uncertainty evaluation with statistical method is performed by repetition of transport calculation with sampling the directly perturbed nuclear data. Hence, the reliable uncertainty result can be obtained by analyzing the results of the numerous transport calculations. One of the problems in the uncertainty analysis with the statistical approach is known as that the cross section sampling from the normal (Gaussian) distribution with relatively large standard deviation leads to the sampling error of the cross sections such as the sampling of the negative cross section. Some collection methods are noted; however, the methods can distort the distribution of the sampled cross sections. In this study, a sampling method of the nuclear data is proposed by using lognormal distribution. After that, the criticality calculations with sampled nuclear data are performed and the results are compared with that from the normal distribution which is conventionally used in the previous studies. In this study, the statistical sampling method of the cross section with the lognormal distribution was proposed to increase the sampling accuracy without negative sampling error. Also, a stochastic cross section sampling and writing program was developed. For the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, the cross section sampling was pursued with the normal and lognormal distribution. The uncertainties, which are caused by covariance of (n,.) cross sections, were evaluated by solving GODIVA problem. The results show that the sampling method with lognormal distribution can efficiently solve the negative sampling problem referred in the previous studies. It is expected that this study will contribute to increase the accuracy of the sampling-based uncertainty analysis

  17. Updating Environmental Media Concentration Limits and Uncertainty factors in the ERICA Tool

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, J.E.; Hosseini, A. [Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority, P.O. Box 55, N-1332 Oesteraas (Norway); Alfonso, B.; Avila, R. [Facilia AB, S-167 51 Bromma (Sweden); Beresford, N.A. [Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, CEH-Lancaster, Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Avenue, Bailrigg, Lancaster LA 1 4AP (United Kingdom); Copplestone, D. [Dept. Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Stirling, Stirling, FK9 4LA (United Kingdom)

    2014-07-01

    Tiered approaches have become a standard means of structuring information in the process of conducting environmental risk assessments. For cases involving the assessment of impacts on wildlife from ionising radiation, the ERICA integrated approach and its supporting software (The ERICA Tool) provides such a structure, splitting the system into two generic screening tiers and a third site-specific tier. The first Tier is very simple, based around Environmental Media Concentration Limits, EMCLs, and requires minimal input from the assessor. The second Tier, although still a screening tier, calculates dose rates and requires more detailed input from the assessor allowing for scrutiny and editing of default parameters in the process. A key element of Tier 2 involves the application of Uncertainty Factors, UFs. Such factors reflect our knowledge concerning probability distribution functions and provide a way of incorporating conservatism into the assessment by considering high percentile values in underlying parameters. Following its launch in 2007, there have been significant developments regarding certain components of the ERICA integrated approach. Most notably, an extended international collation of concentration ratio data has precipitated the need to update parameter values in the Tools databases. In addition, more considered guidance has been developed with regards to filling knowledge gaps in the absence of transfer data. Furthermore, the efficacy of the methods used in assigning probability distribution functions has been questioned leading to an acknowledgement from the developers that the methods were not described in enough detail nor were the justifications for applying the selected approach provided in a convincing way. This has implications for the EMCL values which are derived probabilistically using parameters including concentration ratios. Furthermore, there are implications for UF derivation that relies upon a robust consideration of underlying

  18. Interlaboratory analytical performance studies; a way to estimate measurement uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    El¿bieta £ysiak-Pastuszak

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available Comparability of data collected within collaborative programmes became the key challenge of analytical chemistry in the 1990s, including monitoring of the marine environment. To obtain relevant and reliable data, the analytical process has to proceed under a well-established Quality Assurance (QA system with external analytical proficiency tests as an inherent component. A programme called Quality Assurance in Marine Monitoring in Europe (QUASIMEME was established in 1993 and evolved over the years as the major provider of QA proficiency tests for nutrients, trace metals and chlorinated organic compounds in marine environment studies. The article presents an evaluation of results obtained in QUASIMEME Laboratory Performance Studies by the monitoring laboratory of the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (Gdynia, Poland in exercises on nutrient determination in seawater. The measurement uncertainty estimated from routine internal quality control measurements and from results of analytical performance exercises is also presented in the paper.

  19. Environmental characteristics comparison of Li-ion batteries and Ni–MH batteries under the uncertainty of cycle performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, Yajuan; Wang, Xiang; Wang, Dong; Huang, Kai; Wang, Lijing; Bao, Liying; Wu, Feng

    2012-01-01

    An environmental impact assessment model for secondary batteries under uncertainty is proposed, which is a combination of the life cycle assessment (LCA), Eco-indicator 99 system and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). The LCA can describe the environmental impact mechanism of secondary batteries, whereas the cycle performance was simulated through MCS. The composite LCA–MCS model was then carried out to estimate the environmental impact of two kinds of experimental batteries. Under this kind of standard assessment system, a comparison between different batteries could be accomplished. The following results were found: (1) among the two selected batteries, the environmental impact of the Li-ion battery is lower than the nickel–metal hydride (Ni–MH) battery, especially with regards to resource consumption and (2) the lithium ion (Li-ion) battery is less sensitive to cycle uncertainty, its environmental impact fluctuations are small when compared with the selected Ni–MH battery and it is more environmentally friendly. The assessment methodology and model proposed in this paper can also be used for any other secondary batteries and they can be helpful in the development of environmentally friendly secondary batteries.

  20. Uncertainty and sensitivity studies supporting the interpretation of the results of TVO I/II PRA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmberg, J.

    1992-01-01

    A comprehensive Level 1 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has been performed for the TVO I/II nuclear power units. As a part of the PRA project, uncertainties of risk models and methods were systematically studied in order to describe them and to demonstrate their impact by way of results. The uncertainty study was divided into two phases: a qualitative and a quantitative study. The qualitative study contained identification of uncertainties and qualitative assessments of their importance. The PRA was introduced, and identified assumptions and uncertainties behind the models were documented. The most significant uncertainties were selected by importance measures or other judgements for further quantitative studies. The quantitative study included sensitivity studies and propagation of uncertainty ranges. In the sensitivity studies uncertain assumptions or parameters were varied in order to illustrate the sensitivity of the models. The propagation of the uncertainty ranges demonstrated the impact of the statistical uncertainties of the parameter values. The Monte Carlo method was used as a propagation method. The most significant uncertainties were those involved in modelling human interactions, dependences and common cause failures (CCFs), loss of coolant accident (LOCA) frequencies and pressure suppression. The qualitative mapping out of the uncertainty factors turned out to be useful in planning quantitative studies. It also served as internal review of the assumptions made in the PRA. The sensitivity studies were perhaps the most advantageous part of the quantitative study because they allowed individual analyses of the significance of uncertainty sources identified. The uncertainty study was found reasonable in systematically and critically assessing uncertainties in a risk analysis. The usefulness of this study depends on the decision maker (power company) since uncertainty studies are primarily carried out to support decision making when uncertainties are

  1. Incorporating forecast uncertainties into EENS for wind turbine studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Toh, G.K.; Gooi, H.B. [School of EEE, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798 (Singapore)

    2011-02-15

    The rapid increase in wind power generation around the world has stimulated the development of applicable technologies to model the uncertainties of wind power resulting from the stochastic nature of wind and fluctuations of demand for integration of wind turbine generators (WTGs). In this paper the load and wind power forecast errors are integrated into the expected energy not served (EENS) formulation through determination of probabilities using the normal distribution approach. The effects of forecast errors and wind energy penetration in the power system are traversed. The impact of wind energy penetration on system reliability, total cost for energy and reserve procurement is then studied for a conventional power system. The results show a degradation of system reliability with significant wind energy penetration in the generation system. This work provides a useful insight into system reliability and economics for the independent system operator (ISO) to deploy energy/reserve providers when WTGs are integrated into the existing power system. (author)

  2. Uncertainties in the fate of nitrogen I: An overview of sources of uncertainty illustrated with a Dutch case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kroeze, C.; Aerts, R.; Breemen, van N.; Dam, van D.; Hoek, van der K.; Hofschreuder, P.; Hoosbeek, M.R.; Klein, de J.; Kros, H.; Oene, van H.; Oenema, O.; Tietema, A.; Veeren, van der R.; Verhoeven, H.; Vries, de W.

    2003-01-01

    This study focuses on the uncertainties in the fate of nitrogen (N) in the Netherlands. Nitrogen inputs into the Netherlands in products, by rivers, and by atmospheric deposition, and microbial and industrial fixation of atmospheric N2 amount to about 4450 Gg N y¿1. About 60% of this N is

  3. Comparative study of the uncertainties in parton distribution functions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alekhin, S.I.

    2003-01-01

    Comparison of the methods used to extract the uncertainties in parton distributions is given, including their statistical properties and practical issues of implementation. Advantages and disadvantages of different methods are illustrated using the examples based on the analysis of real data. Available PDFs sets with associated uncertainties are reviewed and critically compared

  4. Uncertainty in the environmental modelling process – A framework and guidance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Refsgaard, J.C.; van der Sluijs, J.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073427489; Hojberg, A.L.; Vanrolleghem, P.

    2007-01-01

    A terminology and typology of uncertainty is presented together with a framework for the modelling process, its interaction with the broader water management process and the role of uncertainty at different stages in the modelling processes. Brief reviews have been made of 14 different (partly

  5. Toward a definition of intolerance of uncertainty: a review of factor analytical studies of the Intolerance of Uncertainty Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birrell, Jane; Meares, Kevin; Wilkinson, Andrew; Freeston, Mark

    2011-11-01

    Since its emergence in the early 1990s, a narrow but concentrated body of research has developed examining the role of intolerance of uncertainty (IU) in worry, and yet we still know little about its phenomenology. In an attempt to clarify our understanding of this construct, this paper traces the way in which our understanding and definition of IU have evolved throughout the literature. This paper also aims to further our understanding of IU by exploring the latent variables measures by the Intolerance of Uncertainty Scale (IUS; Freeston, Rheaume, Letarte, Dugas & Ladouceur, 1994). A review of the literature surrounding IU confirmed that the current definitions are categorical and lack specificity. A critical review of existing factor analytic studies was carried out in order to determine the underlying factors measured by the IUS. Systematic searches yielded 9 papers for review. Two factors with 12 consistent items emerged throughout the exploratory studies, and the stability of models containing these two factors was demonstrated in subsequent confirmatory studies. It is proposed that these factors represent (i) desire for predictability and an active engagement in seeking certainty, and (ii) paralysis of cognition and action in the face of uncertainty. It is suggested that these factors may represent approach and avoidance responses to uncertainty. Further research is required to confirm the construct validity of these factors and to determine the stability of this structure within clinical samples. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. An inquiry into the potential of scenario analysis for dealing with uncertainty in strategic environmental assessment in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu Zhixi; Bai, Hongtao; Xu He; Zhu Tan

    2011-01-01

    Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) inherently needs to address greater levels of uncertainty in the formulation and implementation processes of strategic decisions, compared with project environmental impact assessment. The range of uncertainties includes internal and external factors of the complex system that is concerned in the strategy. Scenario analysis is increasingly being used to cope with uncertainty in SEA. Following a brief introduction of scenarios and scenario analysis, this paper examines the rationale for scenario analysis in SEA in the context of China. The state of the art associated with scenario analysis applied to SEA in China was reviewed through four SEA case analyses. Lessons learned from these cases indicated the word 'scenario' appears to be abused and the scenario-based methods appear to be misused due to the lack of understanding of an uncertain future and scenario analysis. However, good experiences were also drawn on, regarding how to integrate scenario analysis into the SEA process in China, how to cope with driving forces including uncertainties, how to combine qualitative scenario storylines with quantitative impact predictions, and how to conduct assessments and propose recommendations based on scenarios. Additionally, the ways to improve the application of this tool in SEA were suggested. We concluded by calling for further methodological research on this issue and more practices.

  7. Assessment of global phase uncertainty in case-control studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    van Houwelingen Hans C

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In haplotype-based candidate gene studies a problem is that the genotype data are unphased, which results in haplotype ambiguity. The measure 1 quantifies haplotype predictability from genotype data. It is computed for each individual haplotype, and for a measure of global relative efficiency a minimum value is suggested. Alternatively, we developed methods directly based on the information content of haplotype frequency estimates to obtain global relative efficiency measures: and based on A- and D-optimality, respectively. All three methods are designed for single populations; they can be applied in cases only, controls only or the whole data. Therefore they are not necessarily optimal for haplotype testing in case-control studies. Results A new global relative efficiency measure was derived to maximize power of a simple test statistic that compares haplotype frequencies in cases and controls. Application to real data showed that our proposed method gave a clear and summarizing measure for the case-control study conducted. Additionally this measure might be used for selection of individuals, who have the highest potential for improving power by resolving phase ambiguity. Conclusion Instead of using relative efficiency measure for cases only, controls only or their combined data, we link uncertainty measure to case-control studies directly. Hence, our global efficiency measure might be useful to assess whether data are informative or have enough power for estimation of a specific haplotype risk.

  8. Building Transdisciplinary Environmental Studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm, Jesper

    2006-01-01

    Conceptual analytical-methodological conceptualization of crossdisciplinary sustainability studies......Conceptual analytical-methodological conceptualization of crossdisciplinary sustainability studies...

  9. Energy assessment of peri-urban horticulture and its uncertainty: Case study for Bogota, Colombia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bojaca, C.R. [Centro de Investigaciones y Asesorias Agroindustriales, Facultad de Ciencias Naturales, Universidad de Bogota Jorge Tadeo Lozano, P.O. Box: 140196, Chia (Colombia); Schrevens, E. [Department of Biosystems, Faculty of Applied Bioscience Engineering, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Geo-Institute, Celestijnenlaan 200 E, 3001 Heverlee (Belgium)

    2010-05-15

    Scarce information is available about the energy use pattern of horticultural commodities in general and more specifically for peri-urban horticulture. Peri-urban horticulture in the outskirts of Bogota is an important source of vegetables for Colombia's capital city. Based on detailed follow-ups and periodic field measurements an output-input energy balance was performed with the main objective to study the energy use efficiency of those systems. An uncertainty analysis on the input factors and on the energy equivalents was then applied. Over a measurement period of 18-month, the energy use for coriander, lettuce, radish and spinach was investigated, respectively 12.1, 18.8, 6.6 and 10.7 GJ ha{sup -1} were consumed in these cropping systems. Negative balances were observed for all species exception made for spinach where an output:input ratio of 1.16 was found. The two-way uncertainty analysis showed the highest uncertainty for N-based fertilization while no significant effect was observed for seeds in direct sowing crops. Sustainability of peri-urban horticulture around Bogota is compromised not only because of the city expansion but also due to its inefficient energy use. Technical improvements are required to ensure the environmental subsistence of this important sector for the metropolitan area of the city. (author)

  10. Lived Experiences of "Illness Uncertainty" of Iranian Cancer Patients: A Phenomenological Hermeneutic Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sajjadi, Moosa; Rassouli, Maryam; Abbaszadeh, Abbas; Brant, Jeannine; Majd, Hamid Alavi

    2016-01-01

    For cancer patients, uncertainty is a pervasive experience and a major psychological stressor that affects many aspects of their lives. Uncertainty is a multifaceted concept, and its understanding for patients depends on many factors, including factors associated with various sociocultural contexts. Unfortunately, little is known about the concept of uncertainty in Iranian society and culture. This study aimed to clarify the concept and explain lived experiences of illness uncertainty in Iranian cancer patients. In this hermeneutic phenomenological study, 8 cancer patients participated in semistructured in-depth interviews about their experiences of uncertainty in illness. Interviews continued until data saturation was reached. All interviews were recorded, transcribed, analyzed, and interpreted using 6 stages of the van Manen phenomenological approach. Seven main themes emerged from patients' experiences of illness uncertainty of cancer. Four themes contributed to uncertainty including "Complexity of Cancer," "Confusion About Cancer," "Contradictory Information," and "Unknown Future." Two themes facilitated coping with uncertainty including "Seeking Knowledge" and "Need for Spiritual Peace." One theme, "Knowledge Ambivalence," revealed the struggle between wanting to know and not wanting to know, especially if bad news was delivered. Uncertainty experience for cancer patients in different societies is largely similar. However, some experiences (eg, ambiguity in access to medical resources) seemed unique to Iranian patients. This study provided an outlook of cancer patients' experiences of illness uncertainty in Iran. Cancer patients' coping ability to deal with uncertainty can be improved.

  11. Calibration Uncertainty in Ocean Color Satellite Sensors and Trends in Long-term Environmental Records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turpie, Kevin R.; Eplee, Robert E., Jr.; Franz, Bryan A.; Del Castillo, Carlos

    2014-01-01

    Launched in late 2011, the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) aboard the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) spacecraft is being evaluated by NASA to determine whether this sensor can continue the ocean color data record established through the Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) and the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). To this end, Goddard Space Flight Center generated evaluation ocean color data products using calibration techniques and algorithms established by NASA during the SeaWiFS and MODIS missions. The calibration trending was subjected to some initial sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. Here we present an introductory assessment of how the NASA-produced time series of ocean color is influenced by uncertainty in trending instrument response over time. The results help quantify the uncertainty in measuring regional and global biospheric trends in the ocean using satellite remote sensing, which better define the roles of such records in climate research.

  12. Determination of a PWR key neutron parameters uncertainties and conformity studies applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernard, D.

    2002-01-01

    The aim of this thesis was to evaluate uncertainties of key neutron parameters of slab reactors. Uncertainties sources have many origins, technologic origin for parameters of fabrication and physical origin for nuclear data. First, each contribution of uncertainties is calculated and finally, a factor of uncertainties is associated to key slab parameter like reactivity, isotherm reactivity coefficient, control rod efficiency, power form factor before irradiation and lifetime. This factors of uncertainties were computed by Generalized Perturbations Theory in case of step 0 and by directs calculations in case of irradiation problems. One of neutronic conformity applications was about fabrication and nuclear data targets precision adjustments. Statistic (uncertainties) and deterministic (deviations) approaches were studied. Then neutronics key slab parameters uncertainties were reduced and so nuclear performances were optimised. (author)

  13. Biotechnology and environmental studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1978-01-01

    This program is concerned with the development of biochemical engineering technology whereby individual process steps, at least one of which utilizes a biological entity, can be integrated to result in a highly useful overall process. Areas of concern to DOE that will benefit directly from this technology include energy production and conservation, resource recovery, and pollution abatement. Investigations specific to problems in nuclear waste management include the removal of radionuclides and chemical contaminants from aqueous process and effluent streams. Bioengineering research activities were focused on three areas during this reporting period: enzyme catalysis; treatment of aqueous effluents from coal conversion processes; and bioreactor scale-up and process modeling studies

  14. Geologic environmental study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Chun Soo; Bae, Dae Seok; Kim, Kyung Su; Park, Byung Yoon; Koh, Young Kown; Chun, Kwan Sik; Kim, Jhin Wung

    2000-05-01

    The geoscience research works are focused on the production of geologic basic data accompanying with the technical development of geology and hydrogeologic characterization. The lithology of the Korean peninsula consists of a complex structure of 29 rock types from Archean to Quaternary. The wide distribution of Mesozoic plutonic rock is an important consideration as a potential host rock allowing flexibility of siting. The recent tectonic activities are limited to localized particular area, which can be avoided by excluding in the early stage of siting. Three rock types such as plutonic rocks, crystalline gneisses and massive volcanic rocks were suggested as the preferred host rocks for the further study on HLW disposal system. This report contains grouping of regional faults, and on the distributional characteristics of faults and fractures(zones) in terms of lithological domain and tectonical provinces. The regional groundwater regime can be grouped into 3 regimes by tectonic setting and four groundwater regions based on an altitute. Groundwaters can be grouped by their chemistry and host rocks. The origin of groundwater was proposed by isotope ({sup 1}8O, {sup 2}H, {sup 1}3C, {sup 3}4S, {sup 8}7Sr, {sup 1}5N) studies and the residence time of groundwater was inferred from their tritium contents. Based on the geochemical and isotope characteristics, the geochemical evolutions of each types of groundwater were simulated using SOLVEQ/CHILLER and PHREEQC programs.

  15. Geologic environmental study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Chun Soo; Bae, Dae Seok; Kim, Kyung Su; Park, Byung Yoon; Koh, Young Kown; Chun, Kwan Sik; Kim, Jhin Wung

    2000-05-01

    The geoscience research works are focused on the production of geologic basic data accompanying with the technical development of geology and hydrogeologic characterization. The lithology of the Korean peninsula consists of a complex structure of 29 rock types from Archean to Quaternary. The wide distribution of Mesozoic plutonic rock is an important consideration as a potential host rock allowing flexibility of siting. The recent tectonic activities are limited to localized particular area, which can be avoided by excluding in the early stage of siting. Three rock types such as plutonic rocks, crystalline gneisses and massive volcanic rocks were suggested as the preferred host rocks for the further study on HLW disposal system. This report contains grouping of regional faults, and on the distributional characteristics of faults and fractures(zones) in terms of lithological domain and tectonical provinces. The regional groundwater regime can be grouped into 3 regimes by tectonic setting and four groundwater regions based on an altitute. Groundwaters can be grouped by their chemistry and host rocks. The origin of groundwater was proposed by isotope ( 1 8O, 2 H, 1 3C, 3 4S, 8 7Sr, 1 5N) studies and the residence time of groundwater was inferred from their tritium contents. Based on the geochemical and isotope characteristics, the geochemical evolutions of each types of groundwater were simulated using SOLVEQ/CHILLER and PHREEQC programs

  16. Understanding uncertainty

    CERN Document Server

    Lindley, Dennis V

    2013-01-01

    Praise for the First Edition ""...a reference for everyone who is interested in knowing and handling uncertainty.""-Journal of Applied Statistics The critically acclaimed First Edition of Understanding Uncertainty provided a study of uncertainty addressed to scholars in all fields, showing that uncertainty could be measured by probability, and that probability obeyed three basic rules that enabled uncertainty to be handled sensibly in everyday life. These ideas were extended to embrace the scientific method and to show how decisions, containing an uncertain element, could be rationally made.

  17. Managing uncertainty during r&d projects: a case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wouters, Marc; Roorda, Berend; Gal, Ruud

    2011-01-01

    Firms make signifi cant investments in R&D projects, yet the economic return is often diffi cult to predict because of signifi cant technological and commercial uncertainty. We present an innovative and practical method for managing R&D projects, and we discuss its application to a large R&D

  18. Perceived environmental uncertainty in Dutch dairy farming: The effect of external farm context on strategic choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ondersteijn, C.J.M.; Giesen, G.W.J.; Huirne, R.B.M.

    2006-01-01

    This paper explores the way in which dairy farmers perceive their environment (PE), i.e., the external context of their farm, and the uncertainty (PEU) this poses to them. The environment is defined using the STEP concept (society, technology, economy and politics) and Porter¿s five forces model.

  19. The formation of boards of directors as a contingent response to environmental uncertainty – Evidence from emerging economies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Rice

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides some strong support for existing literature in an under-researched context (the emerging economies of the former Soviet Union and Central and Eastern Europe. We develop and apply a model linking Board formation and environmental uncertainty, finding some partial support for our anticipated relationships in the area of Board establishment and perceived financial sector uncertainly, although no support for our anticipated relationship between governmental sector uncertainty and Board formation. research is supportive of the broad assertion that strategy in emerging economies is different and a ‘one size fits all’ (generally American approach to the questions we ask regarding strategy in emerging regions will rarely provide accurate insights for management academics and practitioners with an interest in understanding and improving management decisions in the context of emerging economies

  20. Uncertainties in assessing the environmental impact of amine emissions from a CO2 capture plant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Karl

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available In this study, a new model framework that couples the atmospheric chemistry transport model system Weather Research and Forecasting–European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (WRF-EMEP and the multimedia fugacity level III model was used to assess the environmental impact of in-air amine emissions from post-combustion carbon dioxide capture. The modelling framework was applied to a typical carbon capture plant artificially placed at Mongstad, on the west coast of Norway. The study region is characterized by high precipitation amounts, relatively few sunshine hours, predominantly westerly winds from the North Atlantic and complex topography. Mongstad can be considered as moderately polluted due to refinery activities. WRF-EMEP enables a detailed treatment of amine chemistry in addition to atmospheric transport and deposition. Deposition fluxes of WRF-EMEP simulations were used as input to the fugacity model in order to derive concentrations of nitramines and nitrosamine in lake water. Predicted concentrations of nitramines and nitrosamines in ground-level air and drinking water were found to be highly sensitive to the description of amine chemistry, especially of the night-time chemistry with the nitrate (NO3 radical. Sensitivity analysis of the fugacity model indicates that catchment characteristics and chemical degradation rates in soil and water are among the important factors controlling the fate of these compounds in lake water. The study shows that realistic emission of commonly used amines result in levels of the sum of nitrosamines and nitramines in ground-level air (0.6–10 pg m−3 and drinking water (0.04–0.25 ng L−1 below the current safety guideline for human health that is enforced by the Norwegian Environment Agency. The modelling framework developed in this study can be used to evaluate possible environmental impacts of emissions of amines from post-combustion capture in other regions of the world.

  1. Uncertainties in assessing the environmental impact of amine emissions from a CO_2 capture plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karl, M.; Castell, N.; Solberg, S.; Svendby, T.; Walker, S.E.; Simpson, D.; Chalmers Univ. Technology, Gothenburg; Starrfelt, J.; Wright, R.F.

    2014-01-01

    In this study, a new model framework that couples the atmospheric chemistry transport model system Weather Research and Forecasting-European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (WRF-EMEP) and the multimedia fugacity level III model was used to assess the environmental impact of in-air amine emissions from post-combustion carbon dioxide capture. The modelling framework was applied to a typical carbon capture plant artificially placed at Mongstad, on the west coast of Norway. The study region is characterized by high precipitation amounts, relatively few sunshine hours, predominantly westerly winds from the North Atlantic and complex topography. Mongstad can be considered as moderately polluted due to refinery activities. WRF-EMEP enables a detailed treatment of amine chemistry in addition to atmospheric transport and deposition. Deposition fluxes of WRF-EMEP simulations were used as input to the fugacity model in order to derive concentrations of nitramines and nitrosamine in lake water. Predicted concentrations of nitramines and nitrosamines in ground-level air and drinking water were found to be highly sensitive to the description of amine chemistry, especially of the night-time chemistry with the nitrate (NO_3) radical. Sensitivity analysis of the fugacity model indicates that catchment characteristics and chemical degradation rates in soil and water are among the important factors controlling the fate of these compounds in lake water. The study shows that realistic emission of commonly used amines result in levels of the sum of nitrosamines and nitramines in ground-level air (0.6-10 pg m"-"3) and drinking water (0.04-0.25 ng L"-"1) below the current safety guideline for human health that is enforced by the Norwegian Environment Agency. The modelling framework developed in this study can be used to evaluate possible environmental impacts of emissions of amines from post-combustion capture in other regions of the world.

  2. Enabling UAV Navigation with Sensor and Environmental Uncertainty in Cluttered and GPS-Denied Environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Vanegas

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV can navigate with low risk in obstacle-free environments using ground control stations that plan a series of GPS waypoints as a path to follow. This GPS waypoint navigation does however become dangerous in environments where the GPS signal is faulty or is only present in some places and when the airspace is filled with obstacles. UAV navigation then becomes challenging because the UAV uses other sensors, which in turn generate uncertainty about its localisation and motion systems, especially if the UAV is a low cost platform. Additional uncertainty affects the mission when the UAV goal location is only partially known and can only be discovered by exploring and detecting a target. This navigation problem is established in this research as a Partially-Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP, so as to produce a policy that maps a set of motion commands to belief states and observations. The policy is calculated and updated on-line while flying with a newly-developed system for UAV Uncertainty-Based Navigation (UBNAV, to navigate in cluttered and GPS-denied environments using observations and executing motion commands instead of waypoints. Experimental results in both simulation and real flight tests show that the UAV finds a path on-line to a region where it can explore and detect a target without colliding with obstacles. UBNAV provides a new method and an enabling technology for scientists to implement and test UAV navigation missions with uncertainty where targets must be detected using on-line POMDP in real flight scenarios.

  3. Enabling UAV Navigation with Sensor and Environmental Uncertainty in Cluttered and GPS-Denied Environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanegas, Fernando; Gonzalez, Felipe

    2016-05-10

    Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) can navigate with low risk in obstacle-free environments using ground control stations that plan a series of GPS waypoints as a path to follow. This GPS waypoint navigation does however become dangerous in environments where the GPS signal is faulty or is only present in some places and when the airspace is filled with obstacles. UAV navigation then becomes challenging because the UAV uses other sensors, which in turn generate uncertainty about its localisation and motion systems, especially if the UAV is a low cost platform. Additional uncertainty affects the mission when the UAV goal location is only partially known and can only be discovered by exploring and detecting a target. This navigation problem is established in this research as a Partially-Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP), so as to produce a policy that maps a set of motion commands to belief states and observations. The policy is calculated and updated on-line while flying with a newly-developed system for UAV Uncertainty-Based Navigation (UBNAV), to navigate in cluttered and GPS-denied environments using observations and executing motion commands instead of waypoints. Experimental results in both simulation and real flight tests show that the UAV finds a path on-line to a region where it can explore and detect a target without colliding with obstacles. UBNAV provides a new method and an enabling technology for scientists to implement and test UAV navigation missions with uncertainty where targets must be detected using on-line POMDP in real flight scenarios.

  4. Data assimilation and uncertainty analysis of environmental assessment problems--an application of Stochastic Transfer Function and Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Romanowicz, Renata; Young, Peter C.

    2003-01-01

    Stochastic Transfer Function (STF) and Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) techniques are outlined and applied to an environmental problem concerned with marine dose assessment. The goal of both methods in this application is the estimation and prediction of the environmental variables, together with their associated probability distributions. In particular, they are used to estimate the amount of radionuclides transferred to marine biota from a given source: the British Nuclear Fuel Ltd (BNFL) repository plant in Sellafield, UK. The complexity of the processes involved, together with the large dispersion and scarcity of observations regarding radionuclide concentrations in the marine environment, require efficient data assimilation techniques. In this regard, the basic STF methods search for identifiable, linear model structures that capture the maximum amount of information contained in the data with a minimal parameterisation. They can be extended for on-line use, based on recursively updated Bayesian estimation and, although applicable to only constant or time-variable parameter (non-stationary) linear systems in the form used in this paper, they have the potential for application to non-linear systems using recently developed State Dependent Parameter (SDP) non-linear STF models. The GLUE based-methods, on the other hand, formulate the problem of estimation using a more general Bayesian approach, usually without prior statistical identification of the model structure. As a result, they are applicable to almost any linear or non-linear stochastic model, although they are much less efficient both computationally and in their use of the information contained in the observations. As expected in this particular environmental application, it is shown that the STF methods give much narrower confidence limits for the estimates due to their more efficient use of the information contained in the data. Exploiting Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) analysis

  5. Exploring the uncertainty in attributing sediment contributions in fingerprinting studies due to uncertainty in determining element concentrations in source areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomez, Jose Alfonso; Owens, Phillip N.; Koiter, Alex J.; Lobb, David

    2016-04-01

    One of the major sources of uncertainty in attributing sediment sources in fingerprinting studies is the uncertainty in determining the concentrations of the elements used in the mixing model due to the variability of the concentrations of these elements in the source materials (e.g., Kraushaar et al., 2015). The uncertainty in determining the "true" concentration of a given element in each one of the source areas depends on several factors, among them the spatial variability of that element, the sampling procedure and sampling density. Researchers have limited control over these factors, and usually sampling density tends to be sparse, limited by time and the resources available. Monte Carlo analysis has been used regularly in fingerprinting studies to explore the probable solutions within the measured variability of the elements in the source areas, providing an appraisal of the probability of the different solutions (e.g., Collins et al., 2012). This problem can be considered analogous to the propagation of uncertainty in hydrologic models due to uncertainty in the determination of the values of the model parameters, and there are many examples of Monte Carlo analysis of this uncertainty (e.g., Freeze, 1980; Gómez et al., 2001). Some of these model analyses rely on the simulation of "virtual" situations that were calibrated from parameter values found in the literature, with the purpose of providing insight about the response of the model to different configurations of input parameters. This approach - evaluating the answer for a "virtual" problem whose solution could be known in advance - might be useful in evaluating the propagation of uncertainty in mixing models in sediment fingerprinting studies. In this communication, we present the preliminary results of an on-going study evaluating the effect of variability of element concentrations in source materials, sampling density, and the number of elements included in the mixing models. For this study a virtual

  6. Environmental Effects on Measurement Uncertainties of Time-of-Flight Cameras

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gudmundsson, Sigurjon Arni; Aanæs, Henrik; Larsen, Rasmus

    2007-01-01

    In this paper the effect the environment has on the SwissRanger SR3000 Time-Of-Flight camera is investigated. The accuracy of this camera is highly affected by the scene it is pointed at: Such as the reflective properties, color and gloss. Also the complexity of the scene has considerable effects...... on the accuracy. To mention a few: The angle of the objects to the emitted light and the scattering effects of near objects. In this paper a general overview of known such inaccuracy factors are described, followed by experiments illustrating the additional uncertainty factors. Specifically we give a better...

  7. Hertelendi Laboratory of Environmental Studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Svingor, E.; Molnar, M.; Palcsu, L.; Futo, I.; Rinyu, L.; Mogyorosi, M.; Major, Z.; Bihari, A.; Vodila, G.; Janovics, R.; Papp, L.; Major, I.

    2010-01-01

    1. Introduction. The Hertelendi Laboratory for Environmental Studies (HEKAL) belongs to the Section of Environmental and Earth Sciences. It is a multidisciplinary laboratory dedicated to environmental research, to the development of nuclear analytical methods and to systems technology. During its existence of more than 15 years it has gained some reputation as a prime laboratory of analytical techniques, working with both radio- and stable isotopes. It has considerable expertise in isotope concentration measurements, radiocarbon dating, tritium measurements, in monitoring radioactivity around nuclear facilities and in modelling the movement of radionuclides in the environment. Many of its projects are within the scope of interest of the Paks Nuclear Power Plant. Our research activity is mainly concerned with the so-called environmental isotopes. This term denotes isotopes, both stable and radioactive, that are present in the natural environment either as a result of natural processes or of human activities. In environmental research isotopes are generally applied either as tracers or as age indicators. An ideal tracer is defined as a substance that behaves in the system studied exactly as the material to be traced as far as the examined parameters are concerned, but has at least one property that distinguishes it from the traced material. The mass number of an isotope is such an ideal indicator. In 2007 the laboratory assumed the name of Dr. Ede Hertelendi to honour the memory of the reputed environmental physicist who founded the group and headed it for many years. The current core of the laboratory staff is made up of his pupils and coworkers. This team was like a family to him. The group owes it to his fatherly figure that it did not fall apart after his death, but advanced with intense work and tenacity during the last decade. One of his first pupils, Mihaly Veres returned to the laboratory as a private entrepreneur and investor in 2005, and in the framework of

  8. Using cost/risk uncertainty spheres to make better environmental restoration decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shangraw, R.F.; Cheney, C.S.; Shangraw, W.R.

    1994-01-01

    The process of balancing cost expenditures and risk reductions during environmental restoration (ER) activities (and as part of other environmental programs such as waste management and facility transition) is the critical policy decision facing DOE site decisionmakers and associated stakeholders (including regulators). The ground rules for this process are specified formally in the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA), as amended, the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act, as amended, the subsequent regulations (e.g., National Contingency Plan) and policies that EPA and State agencies have issued to implement these programs, and (increasingly) interagency agreements and orders. Clearly, as Federal resources to meet environmental commitments become more constrained, cost and risk management tradeoffs will become even more needed and their results pronounced

  9. Managing uncertainty in integrated environmental modelling: The UncertWeb framework.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bastin, L.; Cornford, D.; Jones, R.; Heuvelink, G.B.M.; Pebesma, E.; Stasch, C.; Nativi, S.; Mazzetti, P.

    2013-01-01

    Web-based distributed modelling architectures are gaining increasing recognition as potentially useful tools to build holistic environmental models, combining individual components in complex workflows. However, existing web-based modelling frameworks currently offer no support for managing

  10. Approaches and uncertainties in nutrient budgets; Implications for nutrient management and environmental policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oenema, O.; Kros, J.; Vries, de W.

    2003-01-01

    Nutrient budgets of agroecosystems are constructed either (i) to increase the understanding of nutrient cycling, (ii) as performance indicator and awareness raiser in nutrient management and environmental policy, or (iii) as regulating policy instrument to enforce a certain nutrient management

  11. Managing Uncertainty in Runoff Estimation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency National Stormwater Calculator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency National Stormwater Calculator (NSWC) simplifies the task of estimating runoff through a straightforward simulation process based on the EPA Stormwater Management Model. The NSWC accesses localized climate and soil hydrology data, and opti...

  12. Coupling Uncertainties with Accuracy Assessment in Object-Based Slum Detections, Case Study: Jakarta, Indonesia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pratomo, J.; Kuffer, M.; Martinez, Javier; Kohli, D.

    2017-01-01

    Object-Based Image Analysis (OBIA) has been successfully used to map slums. In general, the occurrence of uncertainties in producing geographic data is inevitable. However, most studies concentrated solely on assessing the classification accuracy and neglecting the inherent uncertainties. Our

  13. A Comparative Study of Uncertainty Reduction Theory in High- and Low-Context Cultures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Myoung-Hye; Yoon, Tae-Jin

    To test the cross-cultural validity of uncertainty reduction theory, a study was conducted using students from South Korea and the United States who were chosen to represent high- and low-context cultures respectively. Uncertainty reduction theory is based upon the assumption that the primary concern of strangers upon meeting is one of uncertainty…

  14. Uncertainties in Amazon Hydropower Development: Risk Scenarios and Environmental Issues around the Belo Monte Dam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wilson Cabral de Sousa Júnior

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The Amazon region is the final frontier and central focus of Brazilian hydro development, which raises a range of environmental concerns. The largest project in the Amazon is the planned Belo Monte Complex on the Xingu river. If constructed it will be the second biggest hydroelectric plant in Brazil, third largest on earth. In this study, we analyse the private and social costs, and benefits of the Belo Monte project. Furthermore, we present risk scenarios, considering fluctuations in the project’s feasibility that would result from variations in total costs and power. For our analysis, we create three scenarios. In the first scenario Belo Monte appears feasible, with a net present value (NPV in the range of US$670 million and a rate of return in excess of the 12% discount rate used in this analysis. The second scenario, where we varied some of the project costs and assumptions based on other economic estimates, shows the project to be infeasible, with a negative NPV of about US$3 billion and external costs around US$330 million. We also conducted a risk analysis, allowing variation in several of the parameters most important to the project’s feasibility. The simulations brought together the risks of cost overruns, construction delays, lower-than-expected generation and rising social costs. The probability of a positive NPV in these circumstances was calculated to be just 28%, or there is a 72% chance that the costs of the Belo Monte dam will be greater than the benefits. Several WCD recommendations are not considered in the project, especially those related to transparency, social participation in the discussion, economic analysis and risk assessment, and licensing of the project. This study underscores the importance of forming a participatory consensus, based on clear, objective information, on whether or not to build the Belo Monte dam.

  15. A maritime decision support system to assess risk in the presence of environmental uncertainties: the REP10 experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grasso, Raffaele; Cococcioni, Marco; Mourre, Baptiste; Chiggiato, Jacopo; Rixen, Michel

    2012-03-01

    The aim of this work is to report on an activity carried out during the 2010 Recognized Environmental Picture experiment, held in the Ligurian Sea during summer 2010. The activity was the first at-sea test of the recently developed decision support system (DSS) for operation planning, which had previously been tested in an artificial experiment. The DSS assesses the impact of both environmental conditions (meteorological and oceanographic) and non-environmental conditions (such as traffic density maps) on people and assets involved in the operation and helps in deciding a course of action that allows safer operation. More precisely, the environmental variables (such as wind speed, current speed and significant wave height) taken as input by the DSS are the ones forecasted by a super-ensemble model, which fuses the forecasts provided by multiple forecasting centres. The uncertainties associated with the DSS's inputs (generally due to disagreement between forecasts) are propagated through the DSS's output by using the unscented transform. In this way, the system is not only able to provide a traffic light map ( run/ not run the operation), but also to specify the confidence level associated with each action. This feature was tested on a particular type of operation with underwater gliders: the glider surfacing for data transmission. It is also shown how the availability of a glider path prediction tool provides surfacing options along the predicted path. The applicability to different operations is demonstrated by applying the same system to support diver operations.

  16. The Findings from the OECD/NEA/CSNI UMS (Uncertainty Method Study)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    D'Auria, F.; Glaeser, H.

    2013-01-01

    Within licensing procedures there is the incentive to replace the conservative requirements for code application by a 'best estimate' concept supplemented by an uncertainty analysis to account for predictive uncertainties of code results. Methods have been developed to quantify these uncertainties. The Uncertainty Methods Study (UMS) Group, following a mandate from CSNI (Committee on the Safety of Nuclear Installations) of OECD/NEA (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development / Nuclear Energy Agency), has compared five methods for calculating the uncertainty in the predictions of advanced 'best estimate' thermal-hydraulic codes. Most of the methods identify and combine input uncertainties. The major differences between the predictions of the methods came from the choice of uncertain parameters and the quantification of the input uncertainties, i.e. the wideness of the uncertainty ranges. Therefore, suitable experimental and analytical information has to be selected to specify these uncertainty ranges or distributions. After the closure of the Uncertainty Method Study (UMS) and after the report was issued comparison calculations of experiment LSTF-SB-CL-18 were performed by University of Pisa using different versions of the RELAP 5 code. It turned out that the version used by two of the participants calculated a 170 K higher peak clad temperature compared with other versions using the same input deck. This may contribute to the differences of the upper limit of the uncertainty ranges. A 'bifurcation' analysis was also performed by the same research group also providing another way of interpreting the high temperature peak calculated by two of the participants. (authors)

  17. Integration of renewable generation uncertainties into stochastic unit commitment considering reserve and risk: A comparative study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quan, Hao; Srinivasan, Dipti; Khosravi, Abbas

    2016-01-01

    The uncertainties of renewable energy have brought great challenges to power system commitment, dispatches and reserve requirement. This paper presents a comparative study on integration of renewable generation uncertainties into SCUC (stochastic security-constrained unit commitment) considering reserve and risk. Renewable forecast uncertainties are captured by a list of PIs (prediction intervals). A new scenario generation method is proposed to generate scenarios from these PIs. Different system uncertainties are considered as scenarios in the stochastic SCUC problem formulation. Two comparative simulations with single (E1: wind only) and multiple sources of uncertainty (E2: load, wind, solar and generation outages) are investigated. Five deterministic and four stochastic case studies are performed. Different generation costs, reserve strategies and associated risks are compared under various scenarios. Demonstrated results indicate the overall costs of E2 is lower than E1 due to penetration of solar power and the associated risk in deterministic cases of E2 is higher than E1. It implies the superimposed effect of uncertainties during uncertainty integration. The results also demonstrate that power systems run a higher level of risk during peak load hours, and that stochastic models are more robust than deterministic ones. - Highlights: • An extensive comparative study for renewable integration is presented. • A novel scenario generation method is proposed. • Wind and solar uncertainties are represented by a list of prediction intervals. • Unit commitment and dispatch costs are discussed considering reserve and risk.

  18. Environmental Studies and Utilitarian Ethics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolff, Brian G.

    2009-01-01

    Environmental ethicists have focused much attention on the limits of utilitarianism and have generally defined "environmental ethics" in a manner that treats utilitarian environmental ethics as an oxymoron. This is unfortunate because utilitarian ethics can support strong environmental policies, and environmental ethicists have not yet produced a…

  19. Insights into water managers' perception and handling of uncertainties - a study of the role of uncertainty in practitioners' planning and decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Höllermann, Britta; Evers, Mariele

    2017-04-01

    Planning and decision-making under uncertainty is common in water management due to climate variability, simplified models, societal developments, planning restrictions just to name a few. Dealing with uncertainty can be approached from two sites, hereby affecting the process and form of communication: Either improve the knowledge base by reducing uncertainties or apply risk-based approaches to acknowledge uncertainties throughout the management process. Current understanding is that science more strongly focusses on the former approach, while policy and practice are more actively applying a risk-based approach to handle incomplete and/or ambiguous information. The focus of this study is on how water managers perceive and handle uncertainties at the knowledge/decision interface in their daily planning and decision-making routines. How they evaluate the role of uncertainties for their decisions and how they integrate this information into the decision-making process. Expert interviews and questionnaires among practitioners and scientists provided an insight into their perspectives on uncertainty handling allowing a comparison of diverse strategies between science and practice as well as between different types of practitioners. Our results confirmed the practitioners' bottom up approach from potential measures upwards instead of impact assessment downwards common in science-based approaches. This science-practice gap may hinder effective uncertainty integration and acknowledgement in final decisions. Additionally, the implementation of an adaptive and flexible management approach acknowledging uncertainties is often stalled by rigid regulations favouring a predict-and-control attitude. However, the study showed that practitioners' level of uncertainty recognition varies with respect to his or her affiliation to type of employer and business unit, hence, affecting the degree of the science-practice-gap with respect to uncertainty recognition. The level of working

  20. Ecosystem Services Mapping Uncertainty Assessment: A Case Study in the Fitzroy Basin Mining Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhenyu Wang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Ecosystem services mapping is becoming increasingly popular through the use of various readily available mapping tools, however, uncertainties in assessment outputs are commonly ignored. Uncertainties from different sources have the potential to lower the accuracy of mapping outputs and reduce their reliability for decision-making. Using a case study in an Australian mining region, this paper assessed the impact of uncertainties on the modelling of the hydrological ecosystem service, water provision. Three types of uncertainty were modelled using multiple uncertainty scenarios: (1 spatial data sources; (2 modelling scales (temporal and spatial and (3 parameterization and model selection. We found that the mapping scales can induce significant changes to the spatial pattern of outputs and annual totals of water provision. In addition, differences in parameterization using differing sources from the literature also led to obvious differences in base flow. However, the impact of each uncertainty associated with differences in spatial data sources were not so great. The results of this study demonstrate the importance of uncertainty assessment and highlight that any conclusions drawn from ecosystem services mapping, such as the impacts of mining, are likely to also be a property of the uncertainty in ecosystem services mapping methods.

  1. Uncertainty propagation and speculation in projective forecasts of environmental change - a lake eutrophication example.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Straten, van G.; Keesman, K.J.

    1991-01-01

    The issue of whether models developed for current conditions can yield correct predictions when used under changed control, as is often the case in environmental management, is discussed. Two models of different complexity are compared on the basis of performance criteria, but it appears that good

  2. Uncertainties in predicting species distributions under climate change: a case study using Tetranychus evansi (Acari: Tetranychidae), a widespread agricultural pest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meynard, Christine N; Migeon, Alain; Navajas, Maria

    2013-01-01

    Many species are shifting their distributions due to climate change and to increasing international trade that allows dispersal of individuals across the globe. In the case of agricultural pests, such range shifts may heavily impact agriculture. Species distribution modelling may help to predict potential changes in pest distributions. However, these modelling strategies are subject to large uncertainties coming from different sources. Here we used the case of the tomato red spider mite (Tetranychus evansi), an invasive pest that affects some of the most important agricultural crops worldwide, to show how uncertainty may affect forecasts of the potential range of the species. We explored three aspects of uncertainty: (1) species prevalence; (2) modelling method; and (3) variability in environmental responses between mites belonging to two invasive clades of T. evansi. Consensus techniques were used to forecast the potential range of the species under current and two different climate change scenarios for 2080, and variance between model projections were mapped to identify regions of high uncertainty. We revealed large predictive variations linked to all factors, although prevalence had a greater influence than the statistical model once the best modelling strategies were selected. The major areas threatened under current conditions include tropical countries in South America and Africa, and temperate regions in North America, the Mediterranean basin and Australia. Under future scenarios, the threat shifts towards northern Europe and some other temperate regions in the Americas, whereas tropical regions in Africa present a reduced risk. Analysis of niche overlap suggests that the current differential distribution of mites of the two clades of T. evansi can be partially attributed to environmental niche differentiation. Overall this study shows how consensus strategies and analysis of niche overlap can be used jointly to draw conclusions on invasive threat

  3. Uncertainties in predicting species distributions under climate change: a case study using Tetranychus evansi (Acari: Tetranychidae, a widespread agricultural pest.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine N Meynard

    Full Text Available Many species are shifting their distributions due to climate change and to increasing international trade that allows dispersal of individuals across the globe. In the case of agricultural pests, such range shifts may heavily impact agriculture. Species distribution modelling may help to predict potential changes in pest distributions. However, these modelling strategies are subject to large uncertainties coming from different sources. Here we used the case of the tomato red spider mite (Tetranychus evansi, an invasive pest that affects some of the most important agricultural crops worldwide, to show how uncertainty may affect forecasts of the potential range of the species. We explored three aspects of uncertainty: (1 species prevalence; (2 modelling method; and (3 variability in environmental responses between mites belonging to two invasive clades of T. evansi. Consensus techniques were used to forecast the potential range of the species under current and two different climate change scenarios for 2080, and variance between model projections were mapped to identify regions of high uncertainty. We revealed large predictive variations linked to all factors, although prevalence had a greater influence than the statistical model once the best modelling strategies were selected. The major areas threatened under current conditions include tropical countries in South America and Africa, and temperate regions in North America, the Mediterranean basin and Australia. Under future scenarios, the threat shifts towards northern Europe and some other temperate regions in the Americas, whereas tropical regions in Africa present a reduced risk. Analysis of niche overlap suggests that the current differential distribution of mites of the two clades of T. evansi can be partially attributed to environmental niche differentiation. Overall this study shows how consensus strategies and analysis of niche overlap can be used jointly to draw conclusions on invasive

  4. Uncertainties in Cancer Risk Coefficients for Environmental Exposure to Radionuclides. An Uncertainty Analysis for Risk Coefficients Reported in Federal Guidance Report No. 13

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pawel, David [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Leggett, Richard Wayne [ORNL; Eckerman, Keith F [ORNL; Nelson, Christopher [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

    2007-01-01

    Federal Guidance Report No. 13 (FGR 13) provides risk coefficients for estimation of the risk of cancer due to low-level exposure to each of more than 800 radionuclides. Uncertainties in risk coefficients were quantified in FGR 13 for 33 cases (exposure to each of 11 radionuclides by each of three exposure pathways) on the basis of sensitivity analyses in which various combinations of plausible biokinetic, dosimetric, and radiation risk models were used to generate alternative risk coefficients. The present report updates the uncertainty analysis in FGR 13 for the cases of inhalation and ingestion of radionuclides and expands the analysis to all radionuclides addressed in that report. The analysis indicates that most risk coefficients for inhalation or ingestion of radionuclides are determined within a factor of 5 or less by current information. That is, application of alternate plausible biokinetic and dosimetric models and radiation risk models (based on the linear, no-threshold hypothesis with an adjustment for the dose and dose rate effectiveness factor) is unlikely to change these coefficients by more than a factor of 5. In this analysis the assessed uncertainty in the radiation risk model was found to be the main determinant of the uncertainty category for most risk coefficients, but conclusions concerning the relative contributions of risk and dose models to the total uncertainty in a risk coefficient may depend strongly on the method of assessing uncertainties in the risk model.

  5. A study on the propagation of measurement uncertainties into the result on a turbine performance test

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cho, Soo Yong; Park, Chan Woo

    2004-01-01

    Uncertainties generated from the individual measured variables have an influence on the uncertainty of the experimental result through a data reduction equation. In this study, a performance test of a single stage axial type turbine is conducted, and total-to-total efficiencies are measured at the various off-design points in the low pressure and cold state. Based on an experimental apparatus, a data reduction equation for turbine efficiency is formulated and six measured variables are selected. Codes are written to calculate the efficiency, the uncertainty of the efficiency, and the sensitivity of the efficiency uncertainty by each of the measured quantities. The influence of each measured variable on the experimental result is figured out. Results show that the largest Uncertainty Magnification Factor (UMF) value is obtained by the inlet total pressure among the six measured variables, and its value is always greater than one. The UMF values of the inlet total temperature, the torque, and the RPM are always one. The Uncertainty Percentage Contribution (UPC) of the RPM shows the lowest influence on the uncertainty of the turbine efficiency, but the UPC of the torque has the largest influence to the result among the measured variables. These results are applied to find the correct direction for meeting an uncertainty requirement of the experimental result in the planning or development phase of experiment, and also to offer ideas for preparing a measurement system in the planning phase

  6. 25 CFR 211.7 - Environmental studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 25 Indians 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Environmental studies. 211.7 Section 211.7 Indians BUREAU... DEVELOPMENT General § 211.7 Environmental studies. (a) The Secretary shall ensure that all environmental studies are prepared as required by the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA) and the...

  7. 25 CFR 225.24 - Environmental studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 25 Indians 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Environmental studies. 225.24 Section 225.24 Indians... SOLID MINERALS AGREEMENTS Minerals Agreements § 225.24 Environmental studies. (a) The Secretary shall ensure that all environmental studies are prepared as required by the National Environmental Policy Act...

  8. A Study on Uncertainty Quantification of Reflood Model using CIRCE Methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeon, Seongsu; Hong, Soonjoon; Oh, Deogyeon; Bang, Youngseok

    2013-01-01

    The CIRCE method is intended to quantify the uncertainties of the correlations of a code. It may replace the expert judgment generally used. In this study, an uncertainty quantification of reflood model was performed using CIRCE methodology. In this paper, the application process of CIRCE methodology and main results are briefly described. This research is expected to be useful to improve the present audit calculation methodology, KINS-REM. In this study, an uncertainty quantification of reflood model was performed using CIRCE methodology. The application of CIRCE provided the satisfactory results. This research is expected to be useful to improve the present audit calculation methodology, KINS-REM

  9. Uncertainty in social dilemmas

    OpenAIRE

    Kwaadsteniet, Erik Willem de

    2007-01-01

    This dissertation focuses on social dilemmas, and more specifically, on environmental uncertainty in these dilemmas. Real-life social dilemma situations are often characterized by uncertainty. For example, fishermen mostly do not know the exact size of the fish population (i.e., resource size uncertainty). Several researchers have therefore asked themselves the question as to how such uncertainty influences people’s choice behavior. These researchers have repeatedly concluded that uncertainty...

  10. Case Studies of Environmental Visualization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Panagiotis Patlakas

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The performance gap between simulation and reality has been identified as a major challenge to achieving sustainability in the Built Environment. While Post-Occupancy Evaluation (POE surveys are an integral part of better understanding building performance, and thus addressing this issue, the importance of POE remains relatively unacknowledged within the wider Built Environment community. A possible reason that has been highlighted is that POE survey data is not easily understood and utilizable by non-expert stakeholders, including designers. A potential method by which to address this is the visualization method, which has well established benefits for communication of big datasets. This paper presents two case studies where EnViz (short for “Environmental Visualization”, a prototype software application developed for research purposes, was utilized and its effectiveness tested via a range of analysis tasks. The results are discussed and compared with those of previous work that utilized variations of the methods presented here. The paper concludes by presenting the lessons drawn from the five-year period of EnViz, emphasizing the potential of environmental visualization for decision support in environmental design and engineering for the built environment, and suggests directions for future development.

  11. Design multiperiod optimization model for the electricity sector under uncertainty – A case study of the Emirate of Abu Dhabi

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Betancourt-Torcat, Alberto; Almansoori, Ali

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Generic and novel multiperiod stochastic model is developed for UAE power sector. • The presented model is formulated as a mixed-integer linear programing problem. • Power infrastructure over 25 years is outlined under natural gas price uncertainty. • Low electricity prices and better social and environmental benefits were obtained. - Abstract: In this study, a multiperiod model that considers uncertainty in the gas feedstock fuel price is developed for the optimal design of electric power systems. The optimization problem was formulated as a multiperiod stochastic programming model using the GAMS® modeling system. Previous studies have analyzed the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) power infrastructure either using a deterministic point of view or simulation tools (e.g., MESSAGE and MARKAL). These previous research has demonstrated that natural gas will remain playing a significant role as key feedstock fuel in the UAE’s power sector. However, the present work is designed to be the first to consider different supply options for the natural gas feedstock (i.e., domestic, pipeline imports, and LNG imports) and electricity imports in the UAE power sector. Moreover, the natural gas supply and electricity import options are considered to be decision variables in the problem’s formulation. Additionally, the considered case studies assumed a realistically existing power infrastructure for the UAE, whereas previous works considered the planning of the UAE power infrastructure as a Greenfield project. Also, to the authors’ knowledge this is the first work to consider a robust optimization model for planning the UAE power infrastructure under uncertainty in the long term horizon. The model was used to study the planning of the power plant infrastructure in the UAE between 2015 and 2040 under uncertainty in the natural gas price. The optimization results show that the model is a valuable tool for planning the optimal power plant infrastructure of the

  12. Incorporating outcome uncertainty and prior outcome beliefs in stated preferences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundhede, Thomas; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl; Hanley, Nick

    2015-01-01

    Stated preference studies tell respondents that policies create environmental changes with varying levels of uncertainty. However, respondents may include their own a priori assessments of uncertainty when making choices among policy options. Using a choice experiment eliciting respondents......’ preferences for conservation policies under climate change, we find that higher outcome uncertainty reduces utility. When accounting for endogeneity, we find that prior beliefs play a significant role in this cost of uncertainty. Thus, merely stating “objective” levels of outcome uncertainty...

  13. Waste Acceptance Decisions and Uncertainty Analysis at the Oak Ridge Environmental Management Waste Management Facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Redus, K. S.; Patterson, J. E.; Hampshire, G. L.; Perkins, A. B.

    2003-01-01

    The Waste Acceptance Criteria (WAC) Attainment Team (AT) routinely provides the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Oak Ridge Operations with Go/No-Go decisions associated with the disposition of over 1.8 million yd3 of low-level radioactive, TSCA, and RCRA hazardous waste. This supply of waste comes from 60+ environmental restoration projects over the next 15 years planned to be dispositioned at the Oak Ridge Environmental Management Waste Management Facility (EMWMF). The EMWMF WAC AT decision making process is accomplished in four ways: (1) ensure a clearly defined mission and timeframe for accomplishment is established, (2) provide an effective organization structure with trained personnel, (3) have in place a set of waste acceptance decisions and Data Quality Objectives (DQO) for which quantitative measures are required, and (4) use validated risk-based forecasting, decision support, and modeling/simulation tools. We provide a summary of WAC AT structure and performance. We offer suggestions based on lessons learned for effective transfer to other DOE

  14. Waste Acceptance Decisions and Uncertainty Analysis at the Oak Ridge Environmental Management Waste Management Facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Redus, K. S.; Patterson, J. E.; Hampshire, G. L.; Perkins, A. B.

    2003-02-25

    The Waste Acceptance Criteria (WAC) Attainment Team (AT) routinely provides the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Oak Ridge Operations with Go/No-Go decisions associated with the disposition of over 1.8 million yd3 of low-level radioactive, TSCA, and RCRA hazardous waste. This supply of waste comes from 60+ environmental restoration projects over the next 15 years planned to be dispositioned at the Oak Ridge Environmental Management Waste Management Facility (EMWMF). The EMWMF WAC AT decision making process is accomplished in four ways: (1) ensure a clearly defined mission and timeframe for accomplishment is established, (2) provide an effective organization structure with trained personnel, (3) have in place a set of waste acceptance decisions and Data Quality Objectives (DQO) for which quantitative measures are required, and (4) use validated risk-based forecasting, decision support, and modeling/simulation tools. We provide a summary of WAC AT structure and performance. We offer suggestions based on lessons learned for effective transfer to other DOE.

  15. A Generalized Kruskal-Wallis Test Incorporating Group Uncertainty with Application to Genetic Association Studies

    OpenAIRE

    Acar, Elif F.; Sun, Lei

    2012-01-01

    Motivated by genetic association studies of SNPs with genotype uncertainty, we propose a generalization of the Kruskal-Wallis test that incorporates group uncertainty when comparing k samples. The extended test statistic is based on probability-weighted rank-sums and follows an asymptotic chi-square distribution with k-1 degrees of freedom under the null hypothesis. Simulation studies confirm the validity and robustness of the proposed test in finite samples. Application to a genome-wide asso...

  16. Treatment of uncertainty through the interval smart/swing weighting method: a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Flávio Autran Monteiro Gomes

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available An increasingly competitive market means that many decisions must be taken, quickly and with precision, in complex, high risk scenarios. This combination of factors makes it necessary to use decision aiding methods which provide a means of dealing with uncertainty in the judgement of the alternatives. This work presents the use of the MAUT method, combined with the INTERVAL SMART/SWING WEIGHTING method. Although multicriteria decision aiding was not conceived specifically for tackling uncertainty, the combined use of MAUT and the INTERVAL SMART/SWING WEIGHTING method allows approaching decision problems under uncertainty. The main concepts which are involved in these two methods are described and their joint application to the case study concerning the selection of a printing service supplier is presented. The case study makes use of the WINPRE software as a support tool for the calculation of dominance. It is then concluded that the proposed approach can be applied to decision making problems under uncertainty.

  17. Demand and generation cost uncertainty modelling in power system optimization studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gomes, Bruno Andre; Saraiva, Joao Tome [INESC Porto and Departamento de Engenharia Electrotecnica e Computadores, Faculdade de Engenharia da Universidade do Porto, FEUP, Campus da FEUP Rua Roberto Frias 378, 4200 465 Porto (Portugal)

    2009-06-15

    This paper describes the formulations and the solution algorithms developed to include uncertainties in the generation cost function and in the demand on DC OPF studies. The uncertainties are modelled by trapezoidal fuzzy numbers and the solution algorithms are based on multiparametric linear programming techniques. These models are a development of an initial formulation detailed in several publications co-authored by the second author of this paper. Now, we developed a more complete model and a more accurate solution algorithm in the sense that it is now possible to capture the widest possible range of values of the output variables reflecting both demand and generation cost uncertainties. On the other hand, when modelling simultaneously demand and generation cost uncertainties, we are representing in a more realistic way the volatility that is currently inherent to power systems. Finally, the paper includes a case study to illustrate the application of these models based on the IEEE 24 bus test system. (author)

  18. Addressing the impact of environmental uncertainty in plankton model calibration with a dedicated software system: the Marine Model Optimization Testbed (MarMOT 1.1 alpha)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hemmings, J. C. P.; Challenor, P. G.

    2012-04-01

    A wide variety of different plankton system models have been coupled with ocean circulation models, with the aim of understanding and predicting aspects of environmental change. However, an ability to make reliable inferences about real-world processes from the model behaviour demands a quantitative understanding of model error that remains elusive. Assessment of coupled model output is inhibited by relatively limited observing system coverage of biogeochemical components. Any direct assessment of the plankton model is further inhibited by uncertainty in the physical state. Furthermore, comparative evaluation of plankton models on the basis of their design is inhibited by the sensitivity of their dynamics to many adjustable parameters. Parameter uncertainty has been widely addressed by calibrating models at data-rich ocean sites. However, relatively little attention has been given to quantifying uncertainty in the physical fields required by the plankton models at these sites, and tendencies in the biogeochemical properties due to the effects of horizontal processes are often neglected. Here we use model twin experiments, in which synthetic data are assimilated to estimate a system's known "true" parameters, to investigate the impact of error in a plankton model's environmental input data. The experiments are supported by a new software tool, the Marine Model Optimization Testbed, designed for rigorous analysis of plankton models in a multi-site 1-D framework. Simulated errors are derived from statistical characterizations of the mixed layer depth, the horizontal flux divergence tendencies of the biogeochemical tracers and the initial state. Plausible patterns of uncertainty in these data are shown to produce strong temporal and spatial variability in the expected simulation error variance over an annual cycle, indicating variation in the significance attributable to individual model-data differences. An inverse scheme using ensemble-based estimates of the

  19. Regional climate change trends and uncertainty analysis using extreme indices: A case study of Hamilton, Canada

    OpenAIRE

    Razavi, Tara; Switzman, Harris; Arain, Altaf; Coulibaly, Paulin

    2016-01-01

    This study aims to provide a deeper understanding of the level of uncertainty associated with the development of extreme weather frequency and intensity indices at the local scale. Several different global climate models, downscaling methods, and emission scenarios were used to develop extreme temperature and precipitation indices at the local scale in the Hamilton region, Ontario, Canada. Uncertainty associated with historical and future trends in extreme indices and future climate projectio...

  20. The uncertainty cascade in flood risk assessment under changing climatic conditions - the Biala Tarnowska case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doroszkiewicz, Joanna; Romanowicz, Renata

    2016-04-01

    Uncertainty in the results of the hydraulic model is not only associated with the limitations of that model and the shortcomings of data. An important factor that has a major impact on the uncertainty of the flood risk assessment in a changing climate conditions is associated with the uncertainty of future climate scenarios (IPCC WG I, 2013). Future climate projections provided by global climate models are used to generate future runoff required as an input to hydraulic models applied in the derivation of flood risk maps. Biala Tarnowska catchment, situated in southern Poland is used as a case study. Future discharges at the input to a hydraulic model are obtained using the HBV model and climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. The study describes a cascade of uncertainty related to different stages of the process of derivation of flood risk maps under changing climate conditions. In this context it takes into account the uncertainty of future climate projections, an uncertainty of flow routing model, the propagation of that uncertainty through the hydraulic model, and finally, the uncertainty related to the derivation of flood risk maps. One of the aims of this study is an assessment of a relative impact of different sources of uncertainty on the uncertainty of flood risk maps. Due to the complexity of the process, an assessment of total uncertainty of maps of inundation probability might be very computer time consuming. As a way forward we present an application of a hydraulic model simulator based on a nonlinear transfer function model for the chosen locations along the river reach. The transfer function model parameters are estimated based on the simulations of the hydraulic model at each of the model cross-section. The study shows that the application of the simulator substantially reduces the computer requirements related to the derivation of flood risk maps under future climatic conditions. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the

  1. Quantifying the uncertainty of wave energy conversion device cost for policy appraisal: An Irish case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farrell, Niall; Donoghue, Cathal O’; Morrissey, Karyn

    2015-01-01

    Wave Energy Conversion (WEC) devices are at a pre-commercial stage of development with feasibility studies sensitive to uncertainties surrounding assumed input costs. This may affect decision making. This paper analyses the impact these uncertainties may have on investor, developer and policymaker decisions using an Irish case study. Calibrated to data present in the literature, a probabilistic methodology is shown to be an effective means to carry this out. Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) metrics are used to quantify the certainty of achieving a given cost or return on investment. We analyse the certainty of financial return provided by the proposed Irish Feed-in Tariff (FiT) policy. The influence of cost reduction through bulk discount is also discussed, with cost reduction targets for developers identified. Uncertainty is found to have a greater impact on the profitability of smaller installations and those subject to lower rates of cost reduction. This paper emphasises that a premium is required to account for cost uncertainty when setting FiT rates. By quantifying uncertainty, a means to specify an efficient premium is presented. - Highlights: • Probabilistic model quantifies uncertainty for wave energy feasibility analyses. • Methodology presented and applied to an Irish case study. • A feed-in tariff premium of 3–4 c/kWh required to account for cost uncertainty. • Sensitivity of uncertainty and cost to rates of technological change analysed. • Use of probabilistic model for investors and developers also demonstrated

  2. Uncertainty and Variability in Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK) Models: Key Issues and Case Studies (Final Report)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA announced the availability of the final report, Uncertainty and Variability in Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK) Models: Key Issues and Case Studies. This report summarizes some of the recent progress in characterizing uncertainty and variability in physi...

  3. [The metrology of uncertainty: a study of vital statistics from Chile and Brazil].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvajal, Yuri; Kottow, Miguel

    2012-11-01

    This paper addresses the issue of uncertainty in the measurements used in public health analysis and decision-making. The Shannon-Wiener entropy measure was adapted to express the uncertainty contained in counting causes of death in official vital statistics from Chile. Based on the findings, the authors conclude that metrological requirements in public health are as important as the measurements themselves. The study also considers and argues for the existence of uncertainty associated with the statistics' performative properties, both by the way the data are structured as a sort of syntax of reality and by exclusion of what remains beyond the quantitative modeling used in each case. Following the legacy of pragmatic thinking and using conceptual tools from the sociology of translation, the authors emphasize that by taking uncertainty into account, public health can contribute to a discussion on the relationship between technology, democracy, and formation of a participatory public.

  4. Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies and Management ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Author Guidelines; » Copyright Notice. Author Guidelines. Guide to Authors: The Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies and Management (EJESM) are based in Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Bahir Dar University, ...

  5. Archives: Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Items 1 - 50 of 54 ... Archives: Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies and Management. Journal Home > Archives: Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies and Management. Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads.

  6. Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies and Management ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies and Management: About this journal. Journal Home > Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies and Management: About this journal. Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads.

  7. 30 CFR 256.82 - Environmental studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Environmental studies. 256.82 Section 256.82... OIL AND GAS IN THE OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF Studies § 256.82 Environmental studies. (a) The Director... practicable, be designed to predict environmental impacts of pollutants introduced into the environments and...

  8. Does Environmental Uncertainty Affect Entrepreneurs’ Orientation and Performance? Empirical Evidence from Indonesian SMEs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rina Herani

    2012-01-01

    orientation dimensions are positively associated with business performance in growing in an uncertain environment. Indonesian entrepreneurs were reluctant to innovate, be proactive, and take risks when an uncertain environment exists. The present study was an endeavour to provide better insight in explaining the inconsistent and ambiguous findings from existing literature.

  9. Natural radioactivity in environmental studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heijnis, H.; Jenkinson, A.; Chisari, R.

    1998-01-01

    Full text: The use natural radioactivity in environmental studies has proven a very powerful tool to determine the dynamics of both natural and antrophogenic processes in our environment. The use of 14 C in archeology and past climate studies has led to many scientific discoveries (i.e. shroud of Turin and Utze 'the ice-man' from Austria). The use of the 238 U-decay series is of at least equal value to studies in archeology and past climates. Some of the Isotopes studied supplement 14 C (which is limited to 40,000 years) up to 350,000 years and others can be utilized to date very young sediments, which can't be dated by 14 C. The so-called 210 Pb dating method has been used over the past 3 decades to date recent sediment. The method uses the disequilibrium in the 238 U decay chain, caused by the escape of the intermediate daughter 222 Rn (a noble gas) from the earth's crust. In the atmosphere the 222 Rn decays via short-lived daughter isotopes to 210 Pb. This 210 Pb with a very convenient half-life of 22,3 years decays to stable 206 Pb. By measuring the surface activity of a sediment core and subsequent samples at regular intervals one can establish a chronology for the sediment core. By studying the trace metals in these cores, one could deduce a contamination history for the region. Examples of studies supported by AINSE and ANSTO will be given

  10. Improving uncertainty evaluation of process models by using pedigree analysis. A case study on CO2 capture with monoethanolamine

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Spek, Mijndert; Ramirez, Andrea; Faaij, André

    2016-01-01

    This article aims to improve uncertainty evaluation of process models by combining a quantitative uncertainty evaluation method (data validation) with a qualitative uncertainty evaluation method (pedigree analysis). The approach is tested on a case study of monoethanolamine based postcombustion CO2

  11. Uncertainty theory

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Baoding

    2015-01-01

    When no samples are available to estimate a probability distribution, we have to invite some domain experts to evaluate the belief degree that each event will happen. Perhaps some people think that the belief degree should be modeled by subjective probability or fuzzy set theory. However, it is usually inappropriate because both of them may lead to counterintuitive results in this case. In order to rationally deal with belief degrees, uncertainty theory was founded in 2007 and subsequently studied by many researchers. Nowadays, uncertainty theory has become a branch of axiomatic mathematics for modeling belief degrees. This is an introductory textbook on uncertainty theory, uncertain programming, uncertain statistics, uncertain risk analysis, uncertain reliability analysis, uncertain set, uncertain logic, uncertain inference, uncertain process, uncertain calculus, and uncertain differential equation. This textbook also shows applications of uncertainty theory to scheduling, logistics, networks, data mining, c...

  12. Comparative study of environmental impact assessment methods ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study aims to introduce and systematically investigate the environmental issues during important decision-making stages. Meanwhile, impacts of development on the environmental components will be also analyzed. This research studies various methods of predicting the environmental changes and determining the ...

  13. Sustainability: Environmental Studies and Public Health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miklas Scholz

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available This special issue ‘Sustainability: Environmental Studies and Public Health’ is part of the internationally leading 'International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health’. I was invited to be the guest editor, and to oversee the refereeing process and subsequent selection of timely, relevant and high quality papers highlighting particularly novel aspects concerned with sustainability issues in environmental studies. [...

  14. Sustainability: Environmental Studies and Public Health

    OpenAIRE

    Scholz, Miklas

    2009-01-01

    This special issue ‘Sustainability: Environmental Studies and Public Health’ is part of the internationally leading 'International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health’. I was invited to be the guest editor, and to oversee the refereeing process and subsequent selection of timely, relevant and high quality papers highlighting particularly novel aspects concerned with sustainability issues in environmental studies. [...

  15. A generalized Kruskal-Wallis test incorporating group uncertainty with application to genetic association studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acar, Elif F; Sun, Lei

    2013-06-01

    Motivated by genetic association studies of SNPs with genotype uncertainty, we propose a generalization of the Kruskal-Wallis test that incorporates group uncertainty when comparing k samples. The extended test statistic is based on probability-weighted rank-sums and follows an asymptotic chi-square distribution with k - 1 degrees of freedom under the null hypothesis. Simulation studies confirm the validity and robustness of the proposed test in finite samples. Application to a genome-wide association study of type 1 diabetic complications further demonstrates the utilities of this generalized Kruskal-Wallis test for studies with group uncertainty. The method has been implemented as an open-resource R program, GKW. © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

  16. Hurdling barriers through market uncertainty: Case studies ininnovative technology adoption

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Payne, Christopher T.; Radspieler Jr., Anthony; Payne, Jack

    2002-08-18

    The crisis atmosphere surrounding electricity availability in California during the summer of 2001 produced two distinct phenomena in commercial energy consumption decision-making: desires to guarantee energy availability while blackouts were still widely anticipated, and desires to avoid or mitigate significant price increases when higher commercial electricity tariffs took effect. The climate of increased consideration of these factors seems to have led, in some cases, to greater willingness on the part of business decision-makers to consider highly innovative technologies. This paper examines three case studies of innovative technology adoption: retrofit of time-and-temperature signs on an office building; installation of fuel cells to supply power, heating, and cooling to the same building; and installation of a gas-fired heat pump at a microbrewery. We examine the decision process that led to adoption of these technologies. In each case, specific constraints had made more conventional energy-efficient technologies inapplicable. We examine how these barriers to technology adoption developed over time, how the California energy decision-making climate combined with the characteristics of these innovative technologies to overcome the barriers, and what the implications of hurdling these barriers are for future energy decisions within the firms.

  17. Radiofrequency Electromagnetic Radiation and Memory Performance: Sources of Uncertainty in Epidemiological Cohort Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brzozek, Christopher; Benke, Kurt K; Zeleke, Berihun M; Abramson, Michael J; Benke, Geza

    2018-03-26

    Uncertainty in experimental studies of exposure to radiation from mobile phones has in the past only been framed within the context of statistical variability. It is now becoming more apparent to researchers that epistemic or reducible uncertainties can also affect the total error in results. These uncertainties are derived from a wide range of sources including human error, such as data transcription, model structure, measurement and linguistic errors in communication. The issue of epistemic uncertainty is reviewed and interpreted in the context of the MoRPhEUS, ExPOSURE and HERMES cohort studies which investigate the effect of radiofrequency electromagnetic radiation from mobile phones on memory performance. Research into this field has found inconsistent results due to limitations from a range of epistemic sources. Potential analytic approaches are suggested based on quantification of epistemic error using Monte Carlo simulation. It is recommended that future studies investigating the relationship between radiofrequency electromagnetic radiation and memory performance pay more attention to treatment of epistemic uncertainties as well as further research into improving exposure assessment. Use of directed acyclic graphs is also encouraged to display the assumed covariate relationship.

  18. Radiofrequency Electromagnetic Radiation and Memory Performance: Sources of Uncertainty in Epidemiological Cohort Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher Brzozek

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Uncertainty in experimental studies of exposure to radiation from mobile phones has in the past only been framed within the context of statistical variability. It is now becoming more apparent to researchers that epistemic or reducible uncertainties can also affect the total error in results. These uncertainties are derived from a wide range of sources including human error, such as data transcription, model structure, measurement and linguistic errors in communication. The issue of epistemic uncertainty is reviewed and interpreted in the context of the MoRPhEUS, ExPOSURE and HERMES cohort studies which investigate the effect of radiofrequency electromagnetic radiation from mobile phones on memory performance. Research into this field has found inconsistent results due to limitations from a range of epistemic sources. Potential analytic approaches are suggested based on quantification of epistemic error using Monte Carlo simulation. It is recommended that future studies investigating the relationship between radiofrequency electromagnetic radiation and memory performance pay more attention to treatment of epistemic uncertainties as well as further research into improving exposure assessment. Use of directed acyclic graphs is also encouraged to display the assumed covariate relationship.

  19. Integrated planning for regional development planning and water resources management under uncertainty: A case study of Xining, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Z. H.; Zhao, H. J.; Wang, H.; Lu, W. T.; Wang, J.; Guo, H. C.

    2017-11-01

    Economic restructuring, water resources management, population planning and environmental protection are subjects to inner uncertainties of a compound system with objectives which are competitive alternatives. Optimization model and water quality model are usually used to solve problems in a certain aspect. To overcome the uncertainty and coupling in reginal planning management, an interval fuzzy program combined with water quality model for regional planning and management has been developed to obtain the absolutely ;optimal; solution in this study. The model is a hybrid methodology of interval parameter programming (IPP), fuzzy programing (FP), and a general one-dimensional water quality model. The method extends on the traditional interval parameter fuzzy programming method by integrating water quality model into the optimization framework. Meanwhile, as an abstract concept, water resources carrying capacity has been transformed into specific and calculable index. Besides, unlike many of the past studies about water resource management, population as a significant factor has been considered. The results suggested that the methodology was applicable for reflecting the complexities of the regional planning and management systems within the planning period. The government policy makers could establish effective industrial structure, water resources utilization patterns and population planning, and to better understand the tradeoffs among economic, water resources, population and environmental objectives.

  20. Seismic velocity uncertainties and their effect on geothermal predictions: A case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabbel, Wolfgang; Köhn, Daniel; Bahadur Motra, Hem; Niederau, Jan; Thorwart, Martin; Wuttke, Frank; Descramble Working Group

    2017-04-01

    Geothermal exploration relies in large parts on geophysical subsurface models derived from seismic reflection profiling. These models are the framework of hydro-geothermal modeling, which further requires estimating thermal and hydraulic parameters to be attributed to the seismic strata. All petrophysical and structural properties involved in this process can be determined only with limited accuracy and thus impose uncertainties onto the resulting model predictions of temperature-depth profiles and hydraulic flow, too. In the present study we analyze sources and effects of uncertainties of the seismic velocity field, which translate directly into depth uncertainties of the hydraulically and thermally relevant horizons. Geological sources of these uncertainties are subsurface heterogeneity and seismic anisotropy, methodical sources are limitations in spread length and physical resolution. We demonstrate these effects using data of the EU-Horizon 2020 project DESCRAMBLE investigating a shallow super-critical geothermal reservoir in the Larderello area. The study is based on 2D- and 3D seismic reflection data and laboratory measurements on representative rock samples under simulated in-situ conditions. The rock samples consistently show P-wave anisotropy values of 10-20% order of magnitude. However, the uncertainty of layer depths induced by anisotropy is likely to be lower depending on the accuracy, with which the spatial orientation of bedding planes can be determined from the seismic reflection images.

  1. Uncertainties in Earthquake Loss Analysis: A Case Study From Southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahdyiar, M.; Guin, J.

    2005-12-01

    Probabilistic earthquake hazard and loss analyses play important roles in many areas of risk management, including earthquake related public policy and insurance ratemaking. Rigorous loss estimation for portfolios of properties is difficult since there are various types of uncertainties in all aspects of modeling and analysis. It is the objective of this study to investigate the sensitivity of earthquake loss estimation to uncertainties in regional seismicity, earthquake source parameters, ground motions, and sites' spatial correlation on typical property portfolios in Southern California. Southern California is an attractive region for such a study because it has a large population concentration exposed to significant levels of seismic hazard. During the last decade, there have been several comprehensive studies of most regional faults and seismogenic sources. There have also been detailed studies on regional ground motion attenuations and regional and local site responses to ground motions. This information has been used by engineering seismologists to conduct regional seismic hazard and risk analysis on a routine basis. However, one of the more difficult tasks in such studies is the proper incorporation of uncertainties in the analysis. From the hazard side, there are uncertainties in the magnitudes, rates and mechanisms of the seismic sources and local site conditions and ground motion site amplifications. From the vulnerability side, there are considerable uncertainties in estimating the state of damage of buildings under different earthquake ground motions. From an analytical side, there are challenges in capturing the spatial correlation of ground motions and building damage, and integrating thousands of loss distribution curves with different degrees of correlation. In this paper we propose to address some of these issues by conducting loss analyses of a typical small portfolio in southern California, taking into consideration various source and ground

  2. Internal dose assessments: Uncertainty studies and update of ideas guidelines and databases within CONRAD project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marsh, J. W.; Castellani, C. M.; Hurtgen, C.; Lopez, M. A.; Andrasi, A.; Bailey, M. R.; Birchall, A.; Blanchardon, E.; Desai, A. D.; Dorrian, M. D.; Doerfel, H.; Koukouliou, V.; Luciani, A.; Malatova, I.; Molokanov, A.; Puncher, M.; Vrba, T.

    2008-01-01

    The work of Task Group 5.1 (uncertainty studies and revision of IDEAS guidelines) and Task Group 5.5 (update of IDEAS databases) of the CONRAD project is described. Scattering factor (SF) values (i.e. measurement uncertainties) have been calculated for different radionuclides and types of monitoring data using real data contained in the IDEAS Internal Contamination Database. Based upon this work and other published values, default SF values are suggested. Uncertainty studies have been carried out using both a Bayesian approach as well as a frequentist (classical) approach. The IDEAS guidelines have been revised in areas relating to the evaluation of an effective AMAD, guidance is given on evaluating wound cases with the NCRP wound model and suggestions made on the number and type of measurements required for dose assessment. (authors)

  3. Study on uncertainty evaluation system for the safety evaluation of interim spent fuel storage facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Myung Hyeon; Shin, Myeong Won; Rhy, Seok Jin; Cho, Dong Keon; Park, Dong Hwan [Kyunghee Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Cheong, Beom Jin [Minstry of Science and Technology, Gwacheon (Korea, Republic of)

    1998-03-15

    The main objective os to develop a technical standards for the facility operation of the interm, spent fuel storage facility and to develop a draft for the technical criteria to be legislated. The another objective os to define a uncertainty evaluation system for burn up credit application in criticality analysis and to investigate an applicability of this topic for future regulatory activity. Investigate a status of art for the operational criteria of spent fuel interm wet storage. Collect relevant laws, decree, notices and standards related to the operation of storage facility and study on the legislation system. Develop a draft of technical standards and criteria to be legislated. Define an evaluation system for the uncertainty analysis and study on the status of art in the field of criticality safety analysis. Develop an uncertainty evaluation system in criticality analysis with burnup credit and investigate an applicability as well as its benefits of this policy.

  4. Examining uncertainties in the linkage between global climate change and potential human health impacts in the western USA -- Hexachlorobenzene (HCB) as a case study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McKone, T.E.; Daniels, J.I. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States); Goldman, M. [Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States)

    1994-09-30

    Industrial societies have altered the earth`s environment in ways that could have important, long-term ecological, economic, and health implications. In this paper the authors define, characterize, and evaluate parameter and outcome uncertainties using a model that links global climate change with predictions of chemical exposure and human health risk in the western region of the US. They illustrate the impact of uncertainty about global climate change on such potential secondary outcomes using as a case study the public health consequences related to the behavior environmentally of hexachlorobenzene (HCB), an ubiquitous multimedia pollutant. They begin by constructing a matrix that reveals the linkage between global environmental change and potential regional human-health effects that might be induced directly and/or indirectly by HCB released into the air and water. This matrix is useful for translating critical uncertainties into terms that can be understood and used by policy makers to formulate strategies against potential adverse irreversible health and economic consequences. Specifically, the authors employ a combined uncertainty/sensitivity analysis to investigate how the HCB that has been released is affected by increasing atmospheric temperature and the accompanying climate alterations that are anticipated and how such uncertainty propagates to affect the expected magnitude and calculational precision of estimates of associated potential human exposures and health effects.

  5. A Bayesian approach for evaluation of the effect of water quality model parameter uncertainty on TMDLs: A case study of Miyun Reservoir

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liang, Shidong; Jia, Haifeng; Xu, Changqing; Xu, Te; Melching, Charles

    2016-01-01

    Facing increasingly serious water pollution, the Chinese government is changing the environmental management strategy from solely pollutant concentration control to a Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) program, and water quality models are increasingly being applied to determine the allowable pollutant load in the TMDL. Despite the frequent use of models, few studies have focused on how parameter uncertainty in water quality models affect the allowable pollutant loads in the TMDL program, particularly for complicated and high-dimension water quality models. Uncertainty analysis for such models is limited by time-consuming simulation and high-dimensionality and nonlinearity in parameter spaces. In this study, an allowable pollutant load calculation platform was established using the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC), which is a widely applied hydrodynamic-water quality model. A Bayesian approach, i.e. the DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm, which is a high-efficiency, multi-chain Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, was applied to assess the effects of parameter uncertainty on the water quality model simulations and its influence on the allowable pollutant load calculation in the TMDL program. Miyun Reservoir, which is the most important surface drinking water source for Beijing, suffers from eutrophication and was selected as a case study. The relations between pollutant loads and water quality indicators are obtained through a graphical method in the simulation platform. Ranges of allowable pollutant loads were obtained according to the results of parameter uncertainty analysis, i.e. Total Organic Carbon (TOC): 581.5–1030.6 t·yr"−"1; Total Phosphorus (TP): 23.3–31.0 t·yr"−"1; and Total Nitrogen (TN): 480–1918.0 t·yr"−"1. The wide ranges of allowable pollutant loads reveal the importance of parameter uncertainty analysis in a TMDL program for allowable pollutant load calculation and margin of safety (MOS

  6. STUDY ON MODELING AND VISUALIZING THE POSITIONAL UNCERTAINTY OF REMOTE SENSING IMAGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Jiao

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available It is inevitable to bring about uncertainty during the process of data acquisition. The traditional method to evaluate the geometric positioning accuracy is usually by the statistical method and represented by the root mean square errors (RMSEs of control points. It is individual and discontinuous, so it is difficult to describe the error spatial distribution. In this paper the error uncertainty of each control point is deduced, and the uncertainty spatial distribution model of each arbitrary point is established. The error model is proposed to evaluate the geometric accuracy of remote sensing image. Then several visualization methods are studied to represent the discrete and continuous data of geometric uncertainties. The experiments show that the proposed evaluation method of error distribution model compared with the traditional method of RMSEs can get the similar results but without requiring the user to collect control points as checkpoints, and error distribution information calculated by the model can be provided to users along with the geometric image data. Additionally, the visualization methods described in this paper can effectively and objectively represents the image geometric quality, and also can help users probe the reasons of bringing the image uncertainties in some extent.

  7. Studying the effect of clinical uncertainty on physicians' decision-making using ILIAD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, J D; Jay, S J; Weng, H C; Anderson, M M

    1995-01-01

    The influence of uncertainty on physicians' practice behavior is not well understood. In this research, ILIAD, a diagnostic expert system, has been used to study physicians' responses to uncertainty and how their responses affected clinical performance. The simulation mode of ILIAD was used to standardize the presentation and scoring of two cases to 46 residents in emergency medicine, internal medicine, family practice and transitional medicine at Methodist Hospital of Indiana. A questionnaire was used to collect additional data on how physicians respond to clinical uncertainty. A structural equation model was developed, estimated, and tested. The results indicate that stress that physicians experience in dealing with clinical uncertainty has a negative effect on their clinical performance. Moreover, the way that physicians respond to uncertainty has positive and negative effects on their performance. Open discussions with patients about clinical decisions and the use of practice guidelines improves performance. However, when the physician's clinical decisions are influenced by patient demands or their peers, their performance scores decline.

  8. Decision making under uncertainty in viticulture: a case study of Port wine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Paula Lopes

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available In decision making under uncertainty individual decision makers (winegrowers must choose one of a set number of decision alternatives with ample information about their outcomes but, most of the times, have not enough knowledge or data about the probabilities of the several states of nature. This paper focuses on the classical Maximax, Maximin, Minimax Regret and Realism criteria. The different approaches are analyzed and compared in a case study of Port wine production and selling. The computational involvedness and efficacy of the criterion are also presented. The paper finishes with the results of all observed criteria and alternatives in the circumstances of uncertainty.

  9. Guidelines for uncertainty analysis developed for the participants in the BIOMOVS II study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baeverstam, U.; Davis, P.; Garcia-Olivares, A.; Henrich, E.; Koch, J.

    1993-07-01

    This report has been produced to provide guidelines for uncertainty analysis for use by participants in the BIOMOVS II study. It is hoped that others with an interest in modelling contamination in the biosphere will also find it useful. The report has been prepared by members of the Uncertainty and Validation Working Group and has been reviewed by other BIOMOVS II participants. The opinions expressed are those of the authors and should not be taken to represent the views of the BIOMOVS II sponsors or other BIOMOVS Il participating organisations

  10. Guidelines for uncertainty analysis developed for the participants in the BIOMOVS II study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baeverstam, U; Davis, P; Garcia-Olivares, A; Henrich, E; Koch, J

    1993-07-01

    This report has been produced to provide guidelines for uncertainty analysis for use by participants in the BIOMOVS II study. It is hoped that others with an interest in modelling contamination in the biosphere will also find it useful. The report has been prepared by members of the Uncertainty and Validation Working Group and has been reviewed by other BIOMOVS II participants. The opinions expressed are those of the authors and should not be taken to represent the views of the BIOMOVS II sponsors or other BIOMOVS Il participating organisations.

  11. Uncertainty study of the PWR pressure vessel fluence. Adjustment of the nuclear data base

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kodeli, I.A.

    1994-01-01

    The code system devoted to the calculation of the sensitivity and uncertainty of of the neutron flux and reaction rates calculated by the transport codes, has been developed. Adjustment of the basic data to experimental results can be performed as well. Various sources of uncertainties can be taken into account, such as those due to the uncertainties in the cross-sections, response functions, fission spectrum and space distribution of neutron source, geometry and material composition uncertainties... One -As well as two- dimensional analysis can be performed. Linear perturbation theory is applied. The code system is sufficiently general to be used for various analysis in the fields of fission and fusion. The principal objective of our studies concerns the capsule dosimetry study realized in the framework of the 900 MWe PWR pressure vessel surveillance program. The analysis indicates that the present calculations, performed by the code TRIPOLI-2, using the ENDF/B-IV based, non-perturbed neutron cross-section library in 315 energy groups, allows to estimate the neutron flux and the reaction rates in the surveillance capsules and in the most calculated and measured reaction rates permits to reduce these uncertainties. The results obtained with the adjusted iron cross-sections, response functions and fission spectrum show that the agreement between the calculation and the experiment was improved to become within 10% approximately. The neutron flux deduced from the experiment is then extrapolated from the capsule to the most exposed pressure vessel location using the calculated lead factor. The uncertainty in this factor was estimated to be about 7%. (author). 39 refs., 52 figs., 30 tabs

  12. Reader reaction on the generalized Kruskal-Wallis test for genetic association studies incorporating group uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Baolin; Guan, Weihua

    2015-06-01

    Acar and Sun (2013, Biometrics 69, 427-435) presented a generalized Kruskal-Wallis (GKW) test for genetic association studies that incorporated the genotype uncertainty and showed its robust and competitive performance compared to existing methods. We present another interesting way to derive the GKW test via a rank linear model. © 2014, The International Biometric Society.

  13. Reader Reaction On the generalized Kruskal-Wallis test for genetic association studies incorporating group uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Wu, Baolin; Guan, Weihua

    2014-01-01

    Acar and Sun (2013, Biometrics, 69, 427-435) presented a generalized Kruskal-Wallis (GKW) test for genetic association studies that incorporated the genotype uncertainty and showed its robust and competitive performance compared to existing methods. We present another interesting way to derive the GKW test via a rank linear model.

  14. Incorporating rainfall uncertainty in a SWAT model: the river Zenne basin (Belgium) case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tolessa Leta, Olkeba; Nossent, Jiri; van Griensven, Ann; Bauwens, Willy

    2013-04-01

    The European Union Water Framework Directive (EU-WFD) called its member countries to achieve a good ecological status for all inland and coastal water bodies by 2015. According to recent studies, the river Zenne (Belgium) is far from this objective. Therefore, an interuniversity and multidisciplinary project "Towards a Good Ecological Status in the river Zenne (GESZ)" was launched to evaluate the effects of wastewater management plans on the river. In this project, different models have been developed and integrated using the Open Modelling Interface (OpenMI). The hydrologic, semi-distributed Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is hereby used as one of the model components in the integrated modelling chain in order to model the upland catchment processes. The assessment of the uncertainty of SWAT is an essential aspect of the decision making process, in order to design robust management strategies that take the predicted uncertainties into account. Model uncertainty stems from the uncertainties on the model parameters, the input data (e.g, rainfall), the calibration data (e.g., stream flows) and on the model structure itself. The objective of this paper is to assess the first three sources of uncertainty in a SWAT model of the river Zenne basin. For the assessment of rainfall measurement uncertainty, first, we identified independent rainfall periods, based on the daily precipitation and stream flow observations and using the Water Engineering Time Series PROcessing tool (WETSPRO). Secondly, we assigned a rainfall multiplier parameter for each of the independent rainfall periods, which serves as a multiplicative input error corruption. Finally, we treated these multipliers as latent parameters in the model optimization and uncertainty analysis (UA). For parameter uncertainty assessment, due to the high number of parameters of the SWAT model, first, we screened out its most sensitive parameters using the Latin Hypercube One-factor-At-a-Time (LH-OAT) technique

  15. Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies and Management

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies and Management (EJESM) is based in the Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Bahir Dar University, Ethiopia. Its aim is to publish original research output in the area of Geography, Ecology, Botany, Conservation studies, Food and Nutrition, Water Resources, ...

  16. Study design considerations in evaluating environmental impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stan T. Lebow; Paul A. Cooper; Patricia Lebow

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of this chapter is to make the reader aware of how choices in study parameters may influence the outcome of treated-wood environmental impact evaluations. Evaluation of the leaching and environmental accumulation of preservatives from treated wood is a complex process. and many factors can influence the results of such studies. In laboratory studies, the...

  17. Aeroelastic Uncertainty Quantification Studies Using the S4T Wind Tunnel Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikbay, Melike; Heeg, Jennifer

    2017-01-01

    This paper originates from the joint efforts of an aeroelastic study team in the Applied Vehicle Technology Panel from NATO Science and Technology Organization, with the Task Group number AVT-191, titled "Application of Sensitivity Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification to Military Vehicle Design." We present aeroelastic uncertainty quantification studies using the SemiSpan Supersonic Transport wind tunnel model at the NASA Langley Research Center. The aeroelastic study team decided treat both structural and aerodynamic input parameters as uncertain and represent them as samples drawn from statistical distributions, propagating them through aeroelastic analysis frameworks. Uncertainty quantification processes require many function evaluations to asses the impact of variations in numerous parameters on the vehicle characteristics, rapidly increasing the computational time requirement relative to that required to assess a system deterministically. The increased computational time is particularly prohibitive if high-fidelity analyses are employed. As a remedy, the Istanbul Technical University team employed an Euler solver in an aeroelastic analysis framework, and implemented reduced order modeling with Polynomial Chaos Expansion and Proper Orthogonal Decomposition to perform the uncertainty propagation. The NASA team chose to reduce the prohibitive computational time by employing linear solution processes. The NASA team also focused on determining input sample distributions.

  18. Uncertainty, the Overbearing Lived Experience of the Elderly People Undergoing Hemodialysis: A Qualitative Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahaf, Robab; Sadat Ilali, Ehteram; Peyrovi, Hamid; Akbari Kamrani, Ahmad Ali; Spahbodi, Fatemeh

    2017-01-01

    The chronic kidney disease is a major health concern. The number of the elderly people with chronic renal failure has increased across the world. Dialysis is an appropriate therapy for the elderly, but it involves certain challenges. The present paper reports uncertainty as part of the elderly experiences of living with hemodialysis. This qualitative study applied Max van Manen interpretative phenomenological analysis to explain and explore experiences of the elderly with hemodialysis. Given the study inclusion criteria, data were collected using in-depth unstructured interviews with nine elderly undergoing hemodialysis, and then analyzed according to Van Manen 6-stage methodological approach. One of the most important findings emerging in the main study was "uncertainty", which can be important and noteworthy, given other aspects of the elderly life (loneliness, despair, comorbidity of diseases, disability, and mental and psychosocial problems). Uncertainty about the future is the most psychological concerns of people undergoing hemodialysis. The results obtained are indicative of the importance of paying attention to a major aspect in the life of the elderly undergoing hemodialysis, uncertainty. A positive outlook can be created in the elderly through education and increased knowledge about the disease, treatment and complications.

  19. Accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty in impact assessments: The example of the BRACE study

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, B. C.

    2015-12-01

    Assessing climate change impacts often requires the use of multiple scenarios, types of models, and data sources, leading to a large number of potential sources of uncertainty. For example, a single study might require a choice of a forcing scenario, climate model, bias correction and/or downscaling method, societal development scenario, model (typically several) for quantifying elements of societal development such as economic and population growth, biophysical model (such as for crop yields or hydrology), and societal impact model (e.g. economic or health model). Some sources of uncertainty are reduced or eliminated by the framing of the question. For example, it may be useful to ask what an impact outcome would be conditional on a given societal development pathway, forcing scenario, or policy. However many sources of uncertainty remain, and it is rare for all or even most of these sources to be accounted for. I use the example of a recent integrated project on the Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE) to explore useful approaches to uncertainty across multiple components of an impact assessment. BRACE comprises 23 papers that assess the differences in impacts between two alternative climate futures: those associated with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. It quantifies difference in impacts in terms of extreme events, health, agriculture, tropical cyclones, and sea level rise. Methodologically, it includes climate modeling, statistical analysis, integrated assessment modeling, and sector-specific impact modeling. It employs alternative scenarios of both radiative forcing and societal development, but generally uses a single climate model (CESM), partially accounting for climate uncertainty by drawing heavily on large initial condition ensembles. Strengths and weaknesses of the approach to uncertainty in BRACE are assessed. Options under consideration for improving the approach include the use of perturbed physics

  20. A practical approach for the assessment and illustration of uncertainty in emissions modelling: a case study using GAINS Ireland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King, Fearghal; Fu, Miao; Kelly, J. Andrew

    2011-01-01

    National outlooks of emission levels are important components of international environmental policymaking and associated national policy development. This is the case for both greenhouse gas emissions and transboundary air pollutants. However, there is uncertainty inherent in the production of forecasts. In the climate context, IPCC guidelines have been established to support national teams in quantifying uncertainty within national inventory reporting of historic emissions. These are presented to indicate the potential range of deviation from reported values and to offer added evidence for policy decisions. However, the method and practice of accounting for uncertainty amongst emission forecasts is both less clear and less common. This paper posits that the role of forecasts in setting international targets and planning policy action renders the management of ‘forecast’ uncertainty as important as addressing uncertainty in the context of inventory and compliance work. Failure to explicitly present uncertainty in forecasting delivers an implicit and misplaced confidence in a given future scenario, irrespective of parallel work on other scenarios and sensitivities. However, it is acknowledged that approaches to uncertainty analyses within the literature are often highly technical and the models used are both computationally demanding and time-intensive. This can limit broader adoption where national capacities are limited and scenario development is frequent. This paper describes an approach to presenting uncertainty, where the aim is to balance the technical and temporal demands of uncertainty estimation against a means of delivering regular and practical estimation and presentation of uncertainty for any given scenario. In turn this methodology should help formalise the recognition of the uncertainty dimension in emissions forecasts, for all stakeholders engaged.

  1. Artificial neural network surrogate development of equivalence models for nuclear data uncertainty propagation in scenario studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krivtchik Guillaume

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Scenario studies simulate the whole fuel cycle over a period of time, from extraction of natural resources to geological storage. Through the comparison of different reactor fleet evolutions and fuel management options, they constitute a decision-making support. Consequently uncertainty propagation studies, which are necessary to assess the robustness of the studies, are strategic. Among numerous types of physical model in scenario computation that generate uncertainty, the equivalence models, built for calculating fresh fuel enrichment (for instance plutonium content in PWR MOX so as to be representative of nominal fuel behavior, are very important. The equivalence condition is generally formulated in terms of end-of-cycle mean core reactivity. As this results from a physical computation, it is therefore associated with an uncertainty. A state-of-the-art of equivalence models is exposed and discussed. It is shown that the existing equivalent models implemented in scenario codes, such as COSI6, are not suited to uncertainty propagation computation, for the following reasons: (i existing analytical models neglect irradiation, which has a strong impact on the result and its uncertainty; (ii current black-box models are not suited to cross-section perturbations management; and (iii models based on transport and depletion codes are too time-consuming for stochastic uncertainty propagation. A new type of equivalence model based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN has been developed, constructed with data calculated with neutron transport and depletion codes. The model inputs are the fresh fuel isotopy, the irradiation parameters (burnup, core fractionation, etc., cross-sections perturbations and the equivalence criterion (for instance the core target reactivity in pcm at the end of the irradiation cycle. The model output is the fresh fuel content such that target reactivity is reached at the end of the irradiation cycle. Those models are built and

  2. A PROPOSED MODEL OF THE MEDIATING EFFECT OF STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT ACCOUNTING ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PERCEIVED ENVIRONMENTAL UNCERTAINTY AND FIRM PERFORMANCE

    OpenAIRE

    Somayeh Soheilirad; Saudah Sofian

    2017-01-01

    This paper investigates the relationship between contingency factors, strategic management accounting and firm performance. Due to the development and expansion of organizations and their connections to the industrial competition, it is usable that the organization rely more on non-financial information than financial. The management accounting and financial accounting literature have highlighted the important role of perceived environmental uncertainty and strategic management accounting on ...

  3. The uncertainties in estimating measurement uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, J.P.; Shull, A.H.

    1994-01-01

    All measurements include some error. Whether measurements are used for accountability, environmental programs or process support, they are of little value unless accompanied by an estimate of the measurements uncertainty. This fact is often overlooked by the individuals who need measurements to make decisions. This paper will discuss the concepts of measurement, measurements errors (accuracy or bias and precision or random error), physical and error models, measurement control programs, examples of measurement uncertainty, and uncertainty as related to measurement quality. Measurements are comparisons of unknowns to knowns, estimates of some true value plus uncertainty; and are no better than the standards to which they are compared. Direct comparisons of unknowns that match the composition of known standards will normally have small uncertainties. In the real world, measurements usually involve indirect comparisons of significantly different materials (e.g., measuring a physical property of a chemical element in a sample having a matrix that is significantly different from calibration standards matrix). Consequently, there are many sources of error involved in measurement processes that can affect the quality of a measurement and its associated uncertainty. How the uncertainty estimates are determined and what they mean is as important as the measurement. The process of calculating the uncertainty of a measurement itself has uncertainties that must be handled correctly. Examples of chemistry laboratory measurement will be reviewed in this report and recommendations made for improving measurement uncertainties

  4. 25 CFR 212.7 - Environmental studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 25 Indians 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Environmental studies. 212.7 Section 212.7 Indians BUREAU OF INDIAN AFFAIRS, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR ENERGY AND MINERALS LEASING OF ALLOTTED LANDS FOR MINERAL DEVELOPMENT General § 212.7 Environmental studies. The provisions of § 211.7 of this subchapter...

  5. The Environmental Action and Philosophy Matrix: An Exploratory Study of the Environmental Attitudes of Recreation Management and Environmental Studies Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, Jeremy R.; Simpson, Steven; Elfessi, Abdulaziz M.

    2011-01-01

    This study is a comparative analysis of the environmental philosophies of college undergraduates enrolled in a Midwestern university. Two courses were used for the research, one from a recreation management curriculum and the other from environmental studies. The study utilized a survey instrument called the Environmental Action and Philosophy…

  6. Issues related to uncertainty in projections of hazardous and mixed waste volumes in the U.S. Department of Energy's environmental restoration program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Picel, K.C.

    1995-01-01

    Projected volumes of contaminated media and debris at US Department of Energy (DOE) environmental restoration sites that are potentially subject to the hazardous waste provisions of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act are needed to support programmatic planning. Such projections have been gathered in various surveys conducted under DOE's environmental restoration and waste management programs. It is expected that reducing uncertainty in the projections through review of existing site data and process knowledge and through further site characterization will result in substantially lowered projections. If promulgated, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Hazardous Waste Identification Rule would result in potentially even greater reductions in the projections when site conditions are reviewed under the provisions of the new rule. Reducing uncertainty in projections under current and future waste identification rules may be necessary to support effective remediation planning. Further characterization efforts that may be conducted should be designed to limit uncertainty in identifying volumes of wastes to the extent needed to support alternative selection and to minimize costs of remediation

  7. Information Synthesis in Uncertainty Studies: Application to the Analysis of the BEMUSE Results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baccou, J.; Chojnacki, E.; Destercke, S.

    2013-01-01

    To demonstrate that the nuclear power plants are designed to respond safely at numerous postulated accidents computer codes are used. The models of these computer codes are an approximation of the real physical behaviour occurring during an accident. Moreover the data used to run these codes are also known with a limited accuracy. Therefore the code predictions are not exact but uncertain. To deal with these uncertainties, 'best estimate' codes with 'best estimate' input data are used to obtain a best estimate calculation and it is necessary to derive the uncertainty associated to their estimations. For this reason, regulatory authorities demand in particular to technical safety organization such as the French Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire (IRSN) to provide results taking into account all the uncertainty sources to assess safety quantities are below critical values. Uncertainty analysis can be seen as a problem of information treatment and a special effort on four methodological key issues has to be done. The first one is related to information modelling. In safety studies, one can distinguish two kinds of uncertainty. The first type, called aleatory uncertainty, is due to the natural variability of an observed phenomenon and cannot be reduced by the arrival of new information. The second type, called epistemic uncertainty, can arise from imprecision. Contrary to the previous one, this uncertainty can be reduced by increasing the state of knowledge. Performing a relevant information modelling therefore requires to work with a mathematical formalism flexible enough to faithfully treat both types of uncertainties. The second one deals with information propagation through a computer code. It requires to run the codes several times and it is usually achieved thanks to a coupling to a statistical software. The complexity of the propagation is strongly connected to the mathematical framework used for the information modelling. The more general the

  8. Deep Uncertainty Surrounding Coastal Flood Risk Projections: A Case Study for New Orleans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Tony E.; Keller, Klaus

    2017-10-01

    Future sea-level rise drives severe risks for many coastal communities. Strategies to manage these risks hinge on a sound characterization of the uncertainties. For example, recent studies suggest that large fractions of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) may rapidly disintegrate in response to rising global temperatures, leading to potentially several meters of sea-level rise during the next few centuries. It is deeply uncertain, for example, whether such an AIS disintegration will be triggered, how much this would increase sea-level rise, whether extreme storm surges intensify in a warming climate, or which emissions pathway future societies will choose. Here, we assess the impacts of these deep uncertainties on projected flooding probabilities for a levee ring in New Orleans, LA. We use 18 scenarios, presenting probabilistic projections within each one, to sample key deeply uncertain future projections of sea-level rise, radiative forcing pathways, storm surge characterization, and contributions from rapid AIS mass loss. The implications of these deep uncertainties for projected flood risk are thus characterized by a set of 18 probability distribution functions. We use a global sensitivity analysis to assess which mechanisms contribute to uncertainty in projected flood risk over the course of a 50-year design life. In line with previous work, we find that the uncertain storm surge drives the most substantial risk, followed by general AIS dynamics, in our simple model for future flood risk for New Orleans.

  9. Model uncertainty of various settlement estimation methods in shallow tunnels excavation; case study: Qom subway tunnel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khademian, Amir; Abdollahipour, Hamed; Bagherpour, Raheb; Faramarzi, Lohrasb

    2017-10-01

    In addition to the numerous planning and executive challenges, underground excavation in urban areas is always followed by certain destructive effects especially on the ground surface; ground settlement is the most important of these effects for which estimation there exist different empirical, analytical and numerical methods. Since geotechnical models are associated with considerable model uncertainty, this study characterized the model uncertainty of settlement estimation models through a systematic comparison between model predictions and past performance data derived from instrumentation. To do so, the amount of surface settlement induced by excavation of the Qom subway tunnel was estimated via empirical (Peck), analytical (Loganathan and Poulos) and numerical (FDM) methods; the resulting maximum settlement value of each model were 1.86, 2.02 and 1.52 cm, respectively. The comparison of these predicted amounts with the actual data from instrumentation was employed to specify the uncertainty of each model. The numerical model outcomes, with a relative error of 3.8%, best matched the reality and the analytical method, with a relative error of 27.8%, yielded the highest level of model uncertainty.

  10. Risk in technical and scientific studies: general introduction to uncertainty management and the concept of risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Apostolakis, G.E.

    2004-01-01

    George Apostolakis (MIT) presented an introduction to the concept of risk and uncertainty management and their use in technical and scientific studies. He noted that Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) provides support to the overall treatment of a system as an integrated socio-technical system. Specifically, QRA aims to answer the questions: - What can go wrong (e.g., accident sequences or scenarios)? - How likely are these sequences or scenarios? - What are the consequences of these sequences or scenarios? The Quantitative Risk Assessment deals with two major types of uncertainty. An assessment requires a 'model of the world', and this preferably would be a deterministic model based on underlying processes. In practice, there are uncertainties in this model of the world relating to variability or randomness that cannot be accounted for directly in a deterministic model and that may require a probabilistic or aleatory model. Both deterministic and aleatory models of the world have assumptions and parameters, and there are 'state-of-knowledge' or epistemic uncertainties associated with these. Sensitivity studies or eliciting expert opinion can be used to address the uncertainties in assumptions, and the level of confidence in parameter values can be characterised using probability distributions (pdfs). Overall, the distinction between aleatory and epistemic uncertainties is not always clear, and both can be treated mathematically in the same way. Lessons on safety assessments that can be learnt from experience at nuclear power plants are that beliefs about what is important can be wrong if a risk assessment is not performed. Also, precautionary approaches are not always conservative if failure modes are not identified. Nevertheless, it is important to recognize that uncertainties will remain despite a quantitative risk assessment: e.g., is the scenario list complete, are the models accepted as reasonable, and are parameter probability distributions representative of

  11. Incorporating uncertainties into risk assessment with an application to the exploratory studies facilities at Yucca Mountain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fathauer, P.M.

    1995-08-01

    A methodology that incorporates variability and reducible sources of uncertainty into the probabilistic and consequence components of risk was developed. The method was applied to the north tunnel of the Exploratory Studies Facility at Yucca Mountain in Nevada. In this assessment, variability and reducible sources of uncertainty were characterized and propagated through the risk assessment models using a Monte Carlo based software package. The results were then manipulated into risk curves at the 5% and 95% confidence levels for both the variability and overall uncertainty analyses, thus distinguishing between variability and reducible sources of uncertainty. In the Yucca Mountain application, the designation of the north tunnel as an item important to public safety, as defined by 10 CFR 60, was determined. Specifically, the annual frequency of a rock fall breaching a waste package causing an off-site dose of 500 mrem (5x10 -3 Sv) was calculated. The annual frequency, taking variability into account, ranged from 1.9x10 -9 per year at the 5% confidence level to 2.5x10 -9 per year at the 95% confidence level. The frequency range after including all uncertainty was 9.5x10 -10 to 1.8x10 -8 per year. The maximum observable frequency, at the 100% confidence level, was 4.9x10 -8 per year. This is below the 10 -6 per year frequency criteria of 10 CFR 60. Therefore, based on this work, the north tunnel does not fall under the items important to public safety designation for the event studied

  12. MECCA coordinated research program: analysis of climate models uncertainties used for climatic changes study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caneill, J.Y.; Hakkarinen, C.

    1992-01-01

    An international consortium, called MECCA, (Model Evaluation Consortium for Climate Assessment) has been created in 1991 by different partners including electric utilities, government and academic groups to make available to the international scientific community, a super-computer facility for climate evolution studies. The first phase of the program consists to assess uncertainties of climate model simulations in the framework of global climate change studies. Fourteen scientific projects have been accepted on an international basis in this first phase. The second phase of the program will consist in the evaluation of a set of long climate simulations realized with coupled ocean/atmosphere models, in order to study the transient aspects of climate changes and the associated uncertainties. A particular attention will be devoted, on the consequences of these assessments on climate impact studies, and on the regional aspects of climate changes

  13. Uncertainty studies and risk assessment for CO{sub 2} storage in geological formations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walter, Lena Sophie

    2013-07-01

    drinking water aquifers. The uncertainties on all three levels are investigated in three approaches with different focus. The concept can also be applied to CO{sub 2} leakage or hazards related to other technologies in the subsurface such as methane storage or atomic waste disposal. In the second part of this thesis, uncertainty studies for two realistic storage formations (the pilot site Ketzin (Germany) and a realistic storage formation in the North German Basin) are performed to investigate the related uncertainties and to reduce them as much as possible. For the Ketzin site, history matching of the measurement data, is an important task for dynamic modeling and essential for future risk assessment. A systematic approach to fit the data set using inverse modeling is presented in this work. For future risk assessment for realistic sites, e.g. for the Ketzin site, the uncertainty studies and the history matching approach provide important information. Finally, CCS is discussed in the context of risk perception and the possible input of the risk assessment concept presented in this work is discussed. This work is a first attempt to connect the technical risk assessment for CO{sub 2} storage to the social science approach for risk assessment. It is bridging the gap between engineering and social sciences by integrating the technical quantification of risk into the wider context of a comprehensive risk governance model.

  14. Uncertainty studies and risk assessment for CO2 storage in geological formations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walter, Lena Sophie

    2013-01-01

    aquifers. The uncertainties on all three levels are investigated in three approaches with different focus. The concept can also be applied to CO 2 leakage or hazards related to other technologies in the subsurface such as methane storage or atomic waste disposal. In the second part of this thesis, uncertainty studies for two realistic storage formations (the pilot site Ketzin (Germany) and a realistic storage formation in the North German Basin) are performed to investigate the related uncertainties and to reduce them as much as possible. For the Ketzin site, history matching of the measurement data, is an important task for dynamic modeling and essential for future risk assessment. A systematic approach to fit the data set using inverse modeling is presented in this work. For future risk assessment for realistic sites, e.g. for the Ketzin site, the uncertainty studies and the history matching approach provide important information. Finally, CCS is discussed in the context of risk perception and the possible input of the risk assessment concept presented in this work is discussed. This work is a first attempt to connect the technical risk assessment for CO 2 storage to the social science approach for risk assessment. It is bridging the gap between engineering and social sciences by integrating the technical quantification of risk into the wider context of a comprehensive risk governance model.

  15. Cultural diversity teaching and issues of uncertainty: the findings of a qualitative study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giordano James

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There is considerable ambiguity in the subjective dimensions that comprise much of the relational dynamic of the clinical encounter. Comfort with this ambiguity, and recognition of the potential uncertainty of particular domains of medicine (e.g. – cultural factors of illness expression, value bias in diagnoses, etc is an important facet of medical education. This paper begins by defining ambiguity and uncertainty as relevant to clinical practice. Studies have shown differing patterns of students' tolerance for ambiguity and uncertainty that appear to reflect extant attitudinal predispositions toward technology, objectivity, culture, value- and theory-ladeness, and the need for self-examination. This paper reports on those findings specifically related to the theme of uncertainty as relevant to teaching about cultural diversity. Its focus is to identify how and where the theme of certainty arose in the teaching and learning of cultural diversity, what were the attitudes toward this theme and topic, and how these attitudes and responses reflect and inform this area of medical pedagogy. Methods A semi-structured interview was undertaken with 61 stakeholders (including policymakers, diversity teachers, students and users. The data were analysed and themes identified. Results There were diverse views about what the term cultural diversity means and what should constitute the cultural diversity curriculum. There was a need to provide certainty in teaching cultural diversity with diversity teachers feeling under considerable pressure to provide information. Students discomfort with uncertainty was felt to drive cultural diversity teaching towards factual emphasis rather than reflection or taking a patient centred approach. Conclusion Students and faculty may feel that cultural diversity teaching is more about how to avoid professional, medico-legal pitfalls, rather than improving the patient experience or the patient

  16. Cultural diversity teaching and issues of uncertainty: the findings of a qualitative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dogra, Nisha; Giordano, James; France, Nicholas

    2007-04-26

    There is considerable ambiguity in the subjective dimensions that comprise much of the relational dynamic of the clinical encounter. Comfort with this ambiguity, and recognition of the potential uncertainty of particular domains of medicine (e.g.--cultural factors of illness expression, value bias in diagnoses, etc) is an important facet of medical education. This paper begins by defining ambiguity and uncertainty as relevant to clinical practice. Studies have shown differing patterns of students' tolerance for ambiguity and uncertainty that appear to reflect extant attitudinal predispositions toward technology, objectivity, culture, value- and theory-ladeness, and the need for self-examination. This paper reports on those findings specifically related to the theme of uncertainty as relevant to teaching about cultural diversity. Its focus is to identify how and where the theme of certainty arose in the teaching and learning of cultural diversity, what were the attitudes toward this theme and topic, and how these attitudes and responses reflect and inform this area of medical pedagogy. A semi-structured interview was undertaken with 61 stakeholders (including policymakers, diversity teachers, students and users). The data were analysed and themes identified. There were diverse views about what the term cultural diversity means and what should constitute the cultural diversity curriculum. There was a need to provide certainty in teaching cultural diversity with diversity teachers feeling under considerable pressure to provide information. Students discomfort with uncertainty was felt to drive cultural diversity teaching towards factual emphasis rather than reflection or taking a patient centred approach. Students and faculty may feel that cultural diversity teaching is more about how to avoid professional, medico-legal pitfalls, rather than improving the patient experience or the patient-physician relationship. There may be pressure to imbue cultural diversity issues

  17. Nuclear data requirements for the ADS conceptual design EFIT: Uncertainty and sensitivity study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia-Herranz, N., E-mail: nuria@din.upm.e [Departamento de Ingenieria Nuclear, Universidad Politecnica de Madrid (Spain); Instituto de Fusion Nuclear, Universidad Politecnica de Madrid (Spain); Cabellos, O. [Departamento de Ingenieria Nuclear, Universidad Politecnica de Madrid (Spain); Instituto de Fusion Nuclear, Universidad Politecnica de Madrid (Spain); Alvarez-Velarde, F. [CIEMAT (Spain); Sanz, J. [Instituto de Fusion Nuclear, Universidad Politecnica de Madrid (Spain); Departamento de Ingenieria Energetica, UNED (Spain); Gonzalez-Romero, E.M. [CIEMAT (Spain); Juan, J. [Laboratorio de Estadistica, Universidad Politecnica de Madrid (Spain)

    2010-11-15

    In this paper, we assess the impact of activation cross-section uncertainties on relevant fuel cycle parameters for a conceptual design of a modular European Facility for Industrial Transmutation (EFIT) with a 'double strata' fuel cycle. Next, the nuclear data requirements are evaluated so that the parameters can meet the assigned design target accuracies. Different discharge burn-up levels are considered: a low burn-up, corresponding to the equilibrium cycle, and a high burn-up level, simulating the effects on the fuel of the multi-recycling scenario. In order to perform this study, we propose a methodology in two steps. Firstly, we compute the uncertainties on the system parameters by using a Monte Carlo simulation, as it is considered the most reliable approach to address this problem. Secondly, the analysis of the results is performed by a sensitivity technique, in order to identify the relevant reaction channels and prioritize the data improvement needs. Cross-section uncertainties are taken from the EAF-2007/UN library since it includes data for all the actinides potentially present in the irradiated fuel. Relevant uncertainties in some of the fuel cycle parameters have been obtained, and we conclude with recommendations for future nuclear data measurement programs, beyond the specific results obtained with the present nuclear data files and the limited available covariance information. A comparison with the uncertainty and accuracy analysis recently published by the WPEC-Subgroup26 of the OECD using BOLNA covariance matrices is performed. Despite the differences in the transmuter reactor used for the analysis, some conclusions obtained by Subgroup26 are qualitatively corroborated, and improvements for additional cross sections are suggested.

  18. Summer Undergraduate Research Program: Environmental studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McMillan, J. [ed.

    1994-12-31

    The purpose of the summer undergraduate internship program for research in environmental studies is to provide an opportunity for well-qualified students to undertake an original research project as an apprentice to an active research scientist in basic environmental research. The students are offered research topics at the Medical University in the scientific areas of pharmacology and toxicology, epidemiology and risk assessment, environmental microbiology, and marine sciences. Students are also afforded the opportunity to work with faculty at the University of Charleston, SC, on projects with an environmental theme. Ten well-qualified students from colleges and universities throughout the eastern United States were accepted into the program.

  19. landscape incorporation in the environmental impact studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gutierrez G, Luz Angela

    2000-01-01

    A general overview on landscape analysis showing the two principal approaches to their study, the article emphasize on the need of taking landscape in consideration on the making of the environmental impact study of any project of development

  20. Policy-change Triggered Environmental Uncertainty in a Dairy Cooperative: The Case of Mila in South Tyrol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sylvain Charlebois

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available On April 1st 2015, the European Union lifted its quotas for dairy production, a system that has been in place since 1984. Prior to this, the region of South Tyrol in Northern Italy enjoyed protection from the constraints and penalties of overproduction. With the lifting of quotas in Europe, „Bergmilch Südtirol“, a dairy cooperative based in Bozen, Italy, faces significant challenges. The aim of this exploratory single case study is to gain a better understanding of how a dairy cooperative copes with uncertainty in the context of a new economic environment. The data collected included semi-structured interviews, observations, and a review of internal documents of the cooperatives. Results support claims of the cooperative’s resilience, despite new economic pressures. Recent Russian embargoes have also added to the challenges „Bergmilch Südtirol“ faces. Despite good governance practices and sound financial performance in recent years, „Bergmilch Südtirol“ may need to readjust its strategy, beginning with how the cooperative compensates its farmer-members for their milk.

  1. The Environmental Assessment Technique: An Empirical Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overall, Jesse U., IV

    The purpose of the study was to investigate the effectiveness of Alexander Astin's Environmental Assessment Technique (EAT) in describing the environmental press at a large public university, California State University at Los Angeles. Results indicate that EAT is a very economical method for broadly describing aspects of a university's…

  2. Comparisons and Uncertainty in Fat and Adipose Tissue Estimation Techniques: The Northern Elephant Seal as a Case Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisa K Schwarz

    Full Text Available Fat mass and body condition are important metrics in bioenergetics and physiological studies. They can also link foraging success with demographic rates, making them key components of models that predict population-level outcomes of environmental change. Therefore, it is important to incorporate uncertainty in physiological indicators if results will lead to species management decisions. Maternal fat mass in elephant seals (Mirounga spp can predict reproductive rate and pup survival, but no one has quantified or identified the sources of uncertainty for the two fat mass estimation techniques (labeled-water and truncated cones. The current cones method can provide estimates of proportion adipose tissue in adult females and proportion fat of juveniles in northern elephant seals (M. angustirostris comparable to labeled-water methods, but it does not work for all cases or species. We reviewed components and assumptions of the technique via measurements of seven early-molt and seven late-molt adult females. We show that seals are elliptical on land, rather than the assumed circular shape, and skin may account for a high proportion of what is often defined as blubber. Also, blubber extends past the neck-to-pelvis region, and comparisons of new and old ultrasound instrumentation indicate previous measurements of sculp thickness may be biased low. Accounting for such differences, and incorporating new measurements of blubber density and proportion of fat in blubber, we propose a modified cones method that can isolate blubber from non-blubber adipose tissue and separate fat into skin, blubber, and core compartments. Lastly, we found that adipose tissue and fat estimates using tritiated water may be biased high during the early molt. Both the tritiated water and modified cones methods had high, but reducible, uncertainty. The improved cones method for estimating body condition allows for more accurate quantification of the various tissue masses and may

  3. Interlaboratory study of a liquid chromatography method for erythromycin: determination of uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dehouck, P; Vander Heyden, Y; Smeyers-Verbeke, J; Massart, D L; Marini, R D; Chiap, P; Hubert, Ph; Crommen, J; Van de Wauw, W; De Beer, J; Cox, R; Mathieu, G; Reepmeyer, J C; Voigt, B; Estevenon, O; Nicolas, A; Van Schepdael, A; Adams, E; Hoogmartens, J

    2003-08-22

    Erythromycin is a mixture of macrolide antibiotics produced by Saccharopolyspora erythreas during fermentation. A new method for the analysis of erythromycin by liquid chromatography has previously been developed. It makes use of an Astec C18 polymeric column. After validation in one laboratory, the method was now validated in an interlaboratory study. Validation studies are commonly used to test the fitness of the analytical method prior to its use for routine quality testing. The data derived in the interlaboratory study can be used to make an uncertainty statement as well. The relationship between validation and uncertainty statement is not clear for many analysts and there is a need to show how the existing data, derived during validation, can be used in practice. Eight laboratories participated in this interlaboratory study. The set-up allowed the determination of the repeatability variance, s(2)r and the between-laboratory variance, s(2)L. Combination of s(2)r and s(2)L results in the reproducibility variance s(2)R. It has been shown how these data can be used in future by a single laboratory that wants to make an uncertainty statement concerning the same analysis.

  4. Towards a different attitude to uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guy Pe'er

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The ecological literature deals with uncertainty primarily from the perspective of how to reduce it to acceptable levels. However, the current rapid and ubiquitous environmental changes, as well as anticipated rates of change, pose novel conditions and complex dynamics due to which many sources of uncertainty are difficult or even impossible to reduce. These include both uncertainty in knowledge (epistemic uncertainty and societal responses to it. Under these conditions, an increasing number of studies ask how one can deal with uncertainty as it is. Here, we explore the question how to adopt an overall alternative attitude to uncertainty, which accepts or even embraces it. First, we show that seeking to reduce uncertainty may be counterproductive under some circumstances. It may yield overconfidence, ignoring early warning signs, policy- and societal stagnation, or irresponsible behaviour if personal certainty is offered by externalization of environmental costs. We then demonstrate that uncertainty can have positive impacts by driving improvements in knowledge, promoting cautious action, contributing to keeping societies flexible and adaptable, enhancing awareness, support and involvement of the public in nature conservation, and enhancing cooperation and communication. We discuss the risks of employing a certainty paradigm on uncertain knowledge, the potential benefits of adopting an alternative attitude to uncertainty, and the need to implement such an attitude across scales – from adaptive management at the local scale, to the evolving Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES at the global level.

  5. Quantitative Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Environmental Data and Models. Volume 1. Theory and Methodology Based Upon Bootstrap Simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frey, H. Christopher [North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC (United States); Rhodes, David S. [North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC (United States)

    1999-04-30

    This is Volume 1 of a two-volume set of reports describing work conducted at North Carolina State University sponsored by Grant Number DE-FG05-95ER30250 by the U.S. Department of Energy. The title of the project is “Quantitative Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Acid Rain Assessments.” The work conducted under sponsorship of this grant pertains primarily to two main topics: (1) development of new methods for quantitative analysis of variability and uncertainty applicable to any type of model; and (2) analysis of variability and uncertainty in the performance, emissions, and cost of electric power plant combustion-based NOx control technologies. These two main topics are reported separately in Volumes 1 and 2.

  6. A probabilistic method for species sensitivity distributions taking into account the inherent uncertainty and variability of effects to estimate environmental risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gottschalk, Fadri; Nowack, Bernd

    2013-01-01

    This article presents a method of probabilistically computing species sensitivity distributions (SSD) that is well-suited to cope with distinct data scarcity and variability. First, a probability distribution that reflects the uncertainty and variability of sensitivity is modeled for each species considered. These single species sensitivity distributions are then combined to create an SSD for a particular ecosystem. A probabilistic estimation of the risk is carried out by combining the probability of critical environmental concentrations with the probability of organisms being impacted negatively by these concentrations. To evaluate the performance of the method, we developed SSD and risk calculations for the aquatic environment exposed to triclosan. The case studies showed that the probabilistic results reflect the empirical information well, and the method provides a valuable alternative or supplement to more traditional methods for calculating SSDs based on averaging raw data and/or on using theoretical distributional forms. A comparison and evaluation with single SSD values (5th-percentile [HC5]) revealed the robustness of the proposed method. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

  7. Risk of a false decision on conformity of an environmental compartment due to measurement uncertainty of concentrations of two or more pollutants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pennecchi, Francesca R; Kuselman, Ilya; da Silva, Ricardo J N B; Hibbert, D Brynn

    2018-07-01

    Risks of false decisions in conformity assessment of an environmental compartment due to measurement uncertainty of concentrations of two or more pollutants are discussed. Even if the assessment of conformity for each pollutant in the compartment is successful, the total probability of a false decision concerning the compartment as a whole might still be significant. A model of the total probability of a false decision, formulated on the base of the law of total probability, is used, for example, for a study of test results of total suspended particulate matter (TSPM) concentration in ambient air near to three independent stone quarries located in Israel, as the sources of the air pollution. Total probabilities of underestimation of TSPM concentration (total risk of the inhabitants) and overestimation (total risk of the stone producers) are evaluated as a combination of the particular risks of air conformity assessment concerning TSPM concentration for each quarry. These probabilities characterize conformity of the TSPM concentration in the region of the quarries as a whole. Core code developed in R programming environment for the calculations is provided. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Uncertainty, the Overbearing Lived Experience of the Elderly People Undergoing Hemodialysis: A Qualitative Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robab Sahaf

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: The chronic kidney disease is a major health concern. The number of the elderly people with chronic renal failure has increased across the world. Dialysis is an appropriate therapy for the elderly, but it involves certain challenges. The present paper reports uncertainty as part of the elderly experiences of living with hemodialysis. Methods: This qualitative study applied Max van Manen interpretative phenomenological analysis to explain and explore experiences of the elderly with hemodialysis. Given the study inclusion criteria, data were collected using in-depth unstructured interviews with nine elderly undergoing hemodialysis, and then analyzed according to Van Manen 6-stage methodological approach. Results: One of the most important findings emerging in the main study was “uncertainty”, which can be important and noteworthy, given other aspects of the elderly life (loneliness, despair, comorbidity of diseases, disability, and mental and psychosocial problems. Uncertainty about the future is the most psychological concerns of people undergoing hemodialysis. Conclusion: The results obtained are indicative of the importance of paying attention to a major aspect in the life of the elderly undergoing hemodialysis, uncertainty. A positive outlook can be created in the elderly through education and increased knowledge about the disease, treatment and complications.

  9. Uncertainty, the Overbearing Lived Experience of the Elderly People Undergoing Hemodialysis: A Qualitative Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahaf, Robab; Sadat Ilali, Ehteram; Peyrovi, Hamid; Akbari Kamrani, Ahmad Ali; Spahbodi, Fatemeh

    2017-01-01

    ABSTRACT Background: The chronic kidney disease is a major health concern. The number of the elderly people with chronic renal failure has increased across the world. Dialysis is an appropriate therapy for the elderly, but it involves certain challenges. The present paper reports uncertainty as part of the elderly experiences of living with hemodialysis. Methods: This qualitative study applied Max van Manen interpretative phenomenological analysis to explain and explore experiences of the elderly with hemodialysis. Given the study inclusion criteria, data were collected using in-depth unstructured interviews with nine elderly undergoing hemodialysis, and then analyzed according to Van Manen 6-stage methodological approach. Results: One of the most important findings emerging in the main study was “uncertainty”, which can be important and noteworthy, given other aspects of the elderly life (loneliness, despair, comorbidity of diseases, disability, and mental and psychosocial problems). Uncertainty about the future is the most psychological concerns of people undergoing hemodialysis. Conclusion: The results obtained are indicative of the importance of paying attention to a major aspect in the life of the elderly undergoing hemodialysis, uncertainty. A positive outlook can be created in the elderly through education and increased knowledge about the disease, treatment and complications. PMID:28097174

  10. The influence of uncertainties of measurements in laboratory performance evaluation using an intercomparison program of radionuclide assays in environmental samples

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tauhata, Luiz; Elizabeth Couto Machado Vianna, Maria; Eduardo de Oliveira, Antonio; Cristina de Melo Ferreira, Ana; Julia Camara da Silva Braganca, Maura; Faria Clain, Almir

    2006-01-01

    To show the influence of measurement uncertainties in performance evaluation of laboratories, data from 42 comparison runs were evaluated using two statistical criteria. The normalized standard deviation, D, used by US EPA, that mainly takes into account the accuracy, and the normalized deviation, E, that includes the individual laboratory uncertainty used for performance evaluation in the key-comparisons by BIPM. The results show that data evaluated by the different criteria give a significant deviation of laboratory performance in each radionuclide assay when we analyse a large quantity of data

  11. Minimizing Uncertainties Impact in Decision Making with an Applicability Study for Economic Power Dispatch

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Hong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wang, Shaobu [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Fan, Rui [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhang, Zhuanfang [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2016-09-30

    This report summaries the work performed under the LDRD project on the preliminary study on knowledge automation, where specific focus has been made on the investigation of the impact of uncertainties of human decision making onto the optimization of the process operation. At first the statistics on signals from the Brain-Computing Interface (BCI) is analyzed so as to obtain the uncertainties characterization of human operators during the decision making phase using the electroencephalogram (EEG) signals. This is then followed by the discussions of an architecture that reveals the equivalence between optimization and closed loop feedback control design, where it has been shown that all the optimization problems can be transferred into the control design problem for closed loop systems. This has led to a “closed loop” framework, where the structure of the decision making is shown to be subjected to both process disturbances and controller’s uncertainties. The latter can well represent the uncertainties or randomness occurred during human decision making phase. As a result, a stochastic optimization problem has been formulated and a novel solution has been proposed using probability density function (PDF) shaping for both the cost function and the constraints using stochastic distribution control concept. A sufficient condition has been derived that guarantees the convergence of the optimal solution and discussions have been made for both the total probabilistic solution and chanced constrained optimization which have been well-studied in optimal power flows (OPF) area. A simple case study has been carried out for the economic dispatch of powers for a grid system when there are distributed energy resources (DERs) in the system, and encouraging results have been obtained showing that a significant savings on the generation cost can be expected.

  12. Uncertainty in social dilemmas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kwaadsteniet, Erik Willem de

    2007-01-01

    This dissertation focuses on social dilemmas, and more specifically, on environmental uncertainty in these dilemmas. Real-life social dilemma situations are often characterized by uncertainty. For example, fishermen mostly do not know the exact size of the fish population (i.e., resource size

  13. Dynamic plantwide modeling, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of a pharmaceutical upstream synthesis: Ibuprofen case study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Montes, Frederico C. C.; Gernaey, Krist; Sin, Gürkan

    2018-01-01

    A dynamic plantwide model was developed for the synthesis of the Active pharmaceutical Ingredient (API) ibuprofen, following the Hoescht synthesis process. The kinetic parameters, reagents, products and by-products of the different reactions were adapted from literature, and the different process...... operations integrated until the end process, crystallization and isolation of the ibuprofen crystals. The dynamic model simulations were validated against available measurements from literature and then used as enabling tool to analyze the robustness of design space. To this end, sensitivity of the design...... space towards input disturbances and process uncertainties (from physical and model parameters) is studied using Monte Carlo simulations. The results quantify the uncertainty of the quality of product attributes, with particular focus on crystal size distribution and ibuprofen crystalized. The ranking...

  14. Travel itinerary uncertainty and the pre-travel consultation--a pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flaherty, Gerard; Md Nor, Muhammad Najmi

    2016-01-01

    Risk assessment relies on the accuracy of the information provided by the traveller. A questionnaire was administered to 83 consecutive travellers attending a travel medicine clinic. The majority of travellers was uncertain about destinations within countries, transportation or type of accommodation. Most travellers were uncertain if they would be visiting malaria regions. The degree of uncertainty about itinerary potentially impacts on the ability of the travel medicine specialist to perform an adequate risk assessment, select appropriate vaccinations and prescribe malaria prophylaxis. This study reveals high levels of traveller uncertainty about their itinerary which may potentially reduce the effectiveness of their pre-travel consultation. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of International society of travel medicine. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  15. Using the Rosenzweig frustration picture test in the study of coping behaviour in thesituation of uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena N. L’vova

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper highlights the relation between the relevance of coping behaviour and increasing interest to phenomena of uncertainty. The reviewing of coping as complicated setting notion including several levels is offered. The relevance of studying conscious and unconscious levels of coping is validated. Using coping questionnaires’ deficit of prognosis validity and the relevancy of using projective methods that are effective and useful in diagnostics of coping’ unconscious components are discussed. Due to the changes in viewing difficult life situations’ range and focusing on subjective perception of difficulties, the frustration situations are reviewed as difficult daily life situations. The Rosenzweig Picture Frustration test could be used for diagnosing coping’ unconscious components that compose meaning set level and coping behaviour basis. The relations among personal characteristics (tolerance/intolerance to uncertainty, noetic orientations, personal anxiety, locus of control and three types and three directions of subjects’ responses in test’ situations were examined, generalized linear models were used. The subjects of the research are 199 teachers from secondary schools of Russian Federation, mean age is 40.6 years old. The results showed significant relations between particular personal characteristics and types and directions of the responses: ego-defense type and tolerance to uncertainty, obstacle-dominance type and personal anxiety, intropunitive direction and personal anxiety, obstacledominance type and noetic orientations. The common discussion of current results and results obtained in previous studies demonstrates potential existence of mediating relations between particular coping strategies and types and directions of subjects’ responses in The Rosenzweig Picture Frustration test.

  16. Study on uncertainty evaluation methodology related to hydrological parameter of regional groundwater flow analysis model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sakai, Ryutaro; Munakata, Masahiro; Ohoka, Masao; Kameya, Hiroshi

    2009-11-01

    In the safety assessment for a geological disposal of radioactive waste, it is important to develop a methodology for long-term estimation of regional groundwater flow from data acquisition to numerical analyses. In the uncertainties associated with estimation of regional groundwater flow, there are the one that concerns parameters and the one that concerns the hydrologeological evolution. The uncertainties of parameters include measurement errors and their heterogeneity. The authors discussed the uncertainties of hydraulic conductivity as a significant parameter for regional groundwater flow analysis. This study suggests that hydraulic conductivities of rock mass are controlled by rock characteristics such as fractures, porosity and test conditions such as hydraulic gradient, water quality, water temperature and that there exists variations more than ten times in hydraulic conductivity by difference due to test conditions such as hydraulic gradient or due to rock type variations such as rock fractures, porosity. In addition this study demonstrated that confining pressure change caused by uplift and subsidence and change of hydraulic gradient under the long-term evolution of hydrogeological environment could possibly produce variations more than ten times of magnitude in hydraulic conductivity. It was also shown that the effect of water quality change on hydraulic conductivity was not negligible and that the replacement of fresh water and saline water caused by sea level change could induce 0.6 times in current hydraulic conductivities in case of Horonobe site. (author)

  17. Living with uncertainty and hope: A qualitative study exploring parents' experiences of living with childhood multiple sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinton, Denise; Kirk, Susan

    2017-06-01

    Background There is growing recognition that multiple sclerosis is a possible, albeit uncommon, diagnosis in childhood. However, very little is known about the experiences of families living with childhood multiple sclerosis and this is the first study to explore this in depth. Objective Our objective was to explore the experiences of parents of children with multiple sclerosis. Methods Qualitative in-depth interviews with 31 parents using a grounded theory approach were conducted. Parents were sampled and recruited via health service and voluntary sector organisations in the United Kingdom. Results Parents' accounts of life with childhood multiple sclerosis were dominated by feelings of uncertainty associated with four sources; diagnostic uncertainty, daily uncertainty, interaction uncertainty and future uncertainty. Parents attempted to manage these uncertainties using specific strategies, which could in turn create further uncertainties about their child's illness. However, over time, ongoing uncertainty appeared to give parents hope for their child's future with multiple sclerosis. Conclusion Illness-related uncertainties appear to play a role in generating hope among parents of a child with multiple sclerosis. However, this may lead parents to avoid sources of information and support that threatens their fragile optimism. Professionals need to be sensitive to the role hope plays in supporting parental coping with childhood multiple sclerosis.

  18. The Source Inversion Validation (SIV) Initiative: A Collaborative Study on Uncertainty Quantification in Earthquake Source Inversions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mai, P. M.; Schorlemmer, D.; Page, M.

    2012-04-01

    Earthquake source inversions image the spatio-temporal rupture evolution on one or more fault planes using seismic and/or geodetic data. Such studies are critically important for earthquake seismology in general, and for advancing seismic hazard analysis in particular, as they reveal earthquake source complexity and help (i) to investigate earthquake mechanics; (ii) to develop spontaneous dynamic rupture models; (iii) to build models for generating rupture realizations for ground-motion simulations. In applications (i - iii), the underlying finite-fault source models are regarded as "data" (input information), but their uncertainties are essentially unknown. After all, source models are obtained from solving an inherently ill-posed inverse problem to which many a priori assumptions and uncertain observations are applied. The Source Inversion Validation (SIV) project is a collaborative effort to better understand the variability between rupture models for a single earthquake (as manifested in the finite-source rupture model database) and to develop robust uncertainty quantification for earthquake source inversions. The SIV project highlights the need to develop a long-standing and rigorous testing platform to examine the current state-of-the-art in earthquake source inversion, and to develop and test novel source inversion approaches. We will review the current status of the SIV project, and report the findings and conclusions of the recent workshops. We will briefly discuss several source-inversion methods, how they treat uncertainties in data, and assess the posterior model uncertainty. Case studies include initial forward-modeling tests on Green's function calculations, and inversion results for synthetic data from spontaneous dynamic crack-like strike-slip earthquake on steeply dipping fault, embedded in a layered crustal velocity-density structure.

  19. Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies and Management

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies and Management (EJESM) is based in ... Remote sensing and gis applications in determining shoreline and surface ... Assessment Of Labile Metals In Effluents From Lubricating Oil Company In ...

  20. Application of radiotracers in environmental studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rathore, V.S.

    1994-01-01

    An attempt has been made to present recently emerging trends in the applicability of radiotracers in environmental studies. Since the topic is of general interest and still in the infancy, basic aspects of sampling, instrumentation and methodology are also covered

  1. Resilience as strategy for climate adaptation under uncertainty. Case study on the area outside the dike of Rotterdam

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Jong, A.

    2008-07-01

    This study has two aims; (1) to obtain insight in the concepts resilience and uncertainty; to gain insight in how a resilience oriented approach deals with uncertainties about the future; and (2) putting the resilience oriented approach into operation in a case: the area outside the dike of Rotterdam, the Netherlands, which is designated for new buildings [nl

  2. General Practitioners' Experiences of, and Responses to, Uncertainty in Prostate Cancer Screening: Insights from a Qualitative Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristen Pickles

    Full Text Available Prostate-specific antigen (PSA testing for prostate cancer is controversial. There are unresolved tensions and disagreements amongst experts, and clinical guidelines conflict. This both reflects and generates significant uncertainty about the appropriateness of screening. Little is known about general practitioners' (GPs' perspectives and experiences in relation to PSA testing of asymptomatic men. In this paper we asked the following questions: (1 What are the primary sources of uncertainty as described by GPs in the context of PSA testing? (2 How do GPs experience and respond to different sources of uncertainty?This was a qualitative study that explored general practitioners' current approaches to, and reasoning about, PSA testing of asymptomatic men. We draw on accounts generated from interviews with 69 general practitioners located in Australia (n = 40 and the United Kingdom (n = 29. The interviews were conducted in 2013-2014. Data were analysed using grounded theory methods. Uncertainty in PSA testing was identified as a core issue.Australian GPs reported experiencing substantially more uncertainty than UK GPs. This seemed partly explainable by notable differences in conditions of practice between the two countries. Using Han et al's taxonomy of uncertainty as an initial framework, we first outline the different sources of uncertainty GPs (mostly Australian described encountering in relation to prostate cancer screening and what the uncertainty was about. We then suggest an extension to Han et al's taxonomy based on our analysis of data relating to the varied ways that GPs manage uncertainties in the context of PSA testing. We outline three broad strategies: (1 taking charge of uncertainty; (2 engaging others in managing uncertainty; and (3 transferring the responsibility for reducing or managing some uncertainties to other parties.Our analysis suggests some GPs experienced uncertainties associated with ambiguous guidance and the

  3. Modeling for regional ecosystem sustainable development under uncertainty — A case study of Dongying, China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, K., E-mail: zhangkaibetter@126.com; Li, Y.P., E-mail: yongping.li@iseis.org; Huang, G.H., E-mail: gordon.huang@uregina.ca; You, L., E-mail: youli_ncepu@126.com; Jin, S.W., E-mail: jinshuwei2014@126.com

    2015-11-15

    In this study, a superiority–inferiority two-stage stochastic programming (STSP) method is developed for planning regional ecosystem sustainable development. STSP can tackle uncertainties expressed as fuzzy sets and probability distributions; it can be used to analyze various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic penalties when the promised targets are violated. STSP is applied to a real case of planning regional ecosystem sustainable development in the City of Dongying, where ecosystem services valuation approaches are incorporated within the optimization process. Regional ecosystem can provide direct and indirect services and intangible benefits to local economy. Land trading mechanism is introduced for planning the regional ecosystem's sustainable development, where wetlands are buyers who would protect regional ecosystem components and self-organization and maintain its integrity. Results of regional ecosystem activities, land use patterns, and land trading schemes have been obtained. Results reveal that, although large-scale reclamation projects can bring benefits to the local economy development, they can also bring with negative effects to the coastal ecosystem; among all industry activities oil field is the major contributor with a large number of pollutant discharges into local ecosystem. Results also show that uncertainty has an important role in successfully launching such a land trading program and trading scheme can provide more effective manner to sustain the regional ecosystem. The findings can help decision makers to realize the sustainable development of ecological resources in the process of rapid industrialization, as well as the integration of economic and ecological benefits. - Highlights: • Superiority–inferiority two-stage stochastic programming (STSP) method is developed. • STSP can tackle uncertainties expressed as fuzzy sets and probability distributions. • STSP is applied to planning

  4. Modeling for regional ecosystem sustainable development under uncertainty — A case study of Dongying, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, K.; Li, Y.P.; Huang, G.H.; You, L.; Jin, S.W.

    2015-01-01

    In this study, a superiority–inferiority two-stage stochastic programming (STSP) method is developed for planning regional ecosystem sustainable development. STSP can tackle uncertainties expressed as fuzzy sets and probability distributions; it can be used to analyze various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic penalties when the promised targets are violated. STSP is applied to a real case of planning regional ecosystem sustainable development in the City of Dongying, where ecosystem services valuation approaches are incorporated within the optimization process. Regional ecosystem can provide direct and indirect services and intangible benefits to local economy. Land trading mechanism is introduced for planning the regional ecosystem's sustainable development, where wetlands are buyers who would protect regional ecosystem components and self-organization and maintain its integrity. Results of regional ecosystem activities, land use patterns, and land trading schemes have been obtained. Results reveal that, although large-scale reclamation projects can bring benefits to the local economy development, they can also bring with negative effects to the coastal ecosystem; among all industry activities oil field is the major contributor with a large number of pollutant discharges into local ecosystem. Results also show that uncertainty has an important role in successfully launching such a land trading program and trading scheme can provide more effective manner to sustain the regional ecosystem. The findings can help decision makers to realize the sustainable development of ecological resources in the process of rapid industrialization, as well as the integration of economic and ecological benefits. - Highlights: • Superiority–inferiority two-stage stochastic programming (STSP) method is developed. • STSP can tackle uncertainties expressed as fuzzy sets and probability distributions. • STSP is applied to planning

  5. Characterizing interspecies uncertainty using data from studies of anti-neoplastic agents in animals and humans

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Price, Paul S.; Keenan, Russell E.; Swartout, Jeffrey C.

    2008-01-01

    For most chemicals, the Reference Dose (RfD) is based on data from animal testing. The uncertainty introduced by the use of animal models has been termed interspecies uncertainty. The magnitude of the differences between the toxicity of a chemical in humans and test animals and its uncertainty can be investigated by evaluating the inter-chemical variation in the ratios of the doses associated with similar toxicological endpoints in test animals and humans. This study performs such an evaluation on a data set of 64 anti-neoplastic drugs. The data set provides matched responses in humans and four species of test animals: mice, rats, monkeys, and dogs. While the data have a number of limitations, the data show that when the drugs are evaluated on a body weight basis: 1) toxicity generally increases with a species' body weight; however, humans are not always more sensitive than test animals; 2) the animal to human dose ratios were less than 10 for most, but not all, drugs; 3) the current practice of using data from multiple species when setting RfDs lowers the probability of having a large value for the ratio. These findings provide insight into inter-chemical variation in animal to human extrapolations and suggest the need for additional collection and analysis of matched toxicity data in humans and test animals

  6. Quantifying uncertainty in Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation - A high resolution simulation study in ICBM space.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toschi, Nicola; Keck, Martin E; Welt, Tobias; Guerrisi, Maria

    2012-01-01

    Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation offers enormous potential for noninvasive brain stimulation. While it is known that brain tissue significantly "reshapes" induced field and charge distributions, most modeling investigations to-date have focused on single-subject data with limited generality. Further, the effects of the significant uncertainties which exist in the simulation (i.e. brain conductivity distributions) and stimulation (e.g. coil positioning and orientations) setup have not been quantified. In this study, we construct a high-resolution anisotropic head model in standard ICBM space, which can be used as a population-representative standard for bioelectromagnetic simulations. Further, we employ Monte-Carlo simulations in order to quantify how uncertainties in conductivity values propagate all the way to induced field and currents, demonstrating significant, regionally dependent dispersions in values which are commonly assumed "ground truth". This framework can be leveraged in order to quantify the effect of any type of uncertainty in noninvasive brain stimulation and bears relevance in all applications of TMS, both investigative and therapeutic.

  7. Uncertainty sources in radiopharmaceuticals clinical studies; Fontes de incertezas em estudos clinicos com radiofarmacos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Degenhardt, Aemilie Louize; Oliveira, Silvia Maria Velasques de, E-mail: silvia@cnen.gov.br, E-mail: amilie@bolsista.ird.gov.br [Instituto de Radioprotecao e Dosimetria, (IRD/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2014-07-01

    The radiopharmaceuticals should be approved for consumption by evaluating their quality, safety and efficacy. Clinical studies are designed to verify the pharmacodynamics, pharmacological and clinical effects in humans and are required for assuring safety and efficacy. The Bayesian analysis has been used for clinical studies effectiveness evaluation. This work aims to identify uncertainties associated with the process of production of the radionuclide and radiopharmaceutical labelling as well as the radiopharmaceutical administration and scintigraphy images acquisition and processing. For the development of clinical studies in the country, the metrological chain shall assure the traceability of the surveys performed in all phases. (author)

  8. Input Uncertainty and its Implications on Parameter Assessment in Hydrologic and Hydroclimatic Modelling Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowdhury, S.; Sharma, A.

    2005-12-01

    present. SIMEX is based on theory that the trend in alternate parameters can be extrapolated back to the notional error free zone. We illustrate the utility of SIMEX in a synthetic rainfall-runoff modelling scenario and an application to study the dependence of uncertain distributed sea surface temperature anomalies with an indicator of the El Nino Southern Oscillation, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The errors in rainfall data and its affect is explored using Sacramento rainfall runoff model. The rainfall uncertainty is assumed to be multiplicative and temporally invariant. The model used to relate the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) to the SOI is assumed to be of a linear form. The nature of uncertainty in the SSTA is additive and varies with time. The SIMEX framework allows assessment of the relationship between the error free inputs and response. Cook, J.R., Stefanski, L. A., Simulation-Extrapolation Estimation in Parametric Measurement Error Models, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 89 (428), 1314-1328, 1994.

  9. PROCEEDINGS OF THE INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON UNCERTAINTY, SENSITIVITY, AND PARAMETER ESTIMATION FOR MULTIMEDIA ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING. EPA/600/R-04/117, NUREG/CP-0187, ERDC SR-04-2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    An International Workshop on Uncertainty, Sensitivity, and Parameter Estimation for Multimedia Environmental Modeling was held August 1921, 2003, at the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Headquarters in Rockville, Maryland, USA. The workshop was organized and convened by the Fe...

  10. Radiological assessments, environmental monitoring, and study design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hansen, W.R.; Elle, D.R.

    1980-01-01

    Studies of the behavior of transuranic elements in the environment form the basic data for applied programs in radiological assessment, environmental monitoring, derivation of radiation-protection standards, and environmental impact statements. This chapter introduces some of the major information requirements of these applications of transuranic research data. Characteristics of the source terms from nuclear activities usually are needed for an analysis of environmental pathways or deployment of monitoring systems. Major inhalation and ingestion pathways are considered in assessments of hazards from transuranics and are discussed from the viewpoint of research needed

  11. The organization of nuclear plants environmental studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Marechal, M.

    1980-01-01

    The author first defines the objectives of environmental studies. Next, he describes the scope and organization of sites studies as well as biological and radioecological general studies. At last, he puts forward the available means that are used for such studies and the different offices responsible for their achievement [fr

  12. Bias analysis applied to Agricultural Health Study publications to estimate non-random sources of uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lash, Timothy L

    2007-11-26

    The associations of pesticide exposure with disease outcomes are estimated without the benefit of a randomized design. For this reason and others, these studies are susceptible to systematic errors. I analyzed studies of the associations between alachlor and glyphosate exposure and cancer incidence, both derived from the Agricultural Health Study cohort, to quantify the bias and uncertainty potentially attributable to systematic error. For each study, I identified the prominent result and important sources of systematic error that might affect it. I assigned probability distributions to the bias parameters that allow quantification of the bias, drew a value at random from each assigned distribution, and calculated the estimate of effect adjusted for the biases. By repeating the draw and adjustment process over multiple iterations, I generated a frequency distribution of adjusted results, from which I obtained a point estimate and simulation interval. These methods were applied without access to the primary record-level dataset. The conventional estimates of effect associating alachlor and glyphosate exposure with cancer incidence were likely biased away from the null and understated the uncertainty by quantifying only random error. For example, the conventional p-value for a test of trend in the alachlor study equaled 0.02, whereas fewer than 20% of the bias analysis iterations yielded a p-value of 0.02 or lower. Similarly, the conventional fully-adjusted result associating glyphosate exposure with multiple myleoma equaled 2.6 with 95% confidence interval of 0.7 to 9.4. The frequency distribution generated by the bias analysis yielded a median hazard ratio equal to 1.5 with 95% simulation interval of 0.4 to 8.9, which was 66% wider than the conventional interval. Bias analysis provides a more complete picture of true uncertainty than conventional frequentist statistical analysis accompanied by a qualitative description of study limitations. The latter approach is

  13. Bias analysis applied to Agricultural Health Study publications to estimate non-random sources of uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lash Timothy L

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The associations of pesticide exposure with disease outcomes are estimated without the benefit of a randomized design. For this reason and others, these studies are susceptible to systematic errors. I analyzed studies of the associations between alachlor and glyphosate exposure and cancer incidence, both derived from the Agricultural Health Study cohort, to quantify the bias and uncertainty potentially attributable to systematic error. Methods For each study, I identified the prominent result and important sources of systematic error that might affect it. I assigned probability distributions to the bias parameters that allow quantification of the bias, drew a value at random from each assigned distribution, and calculated the estimate of effect adjusted for the biases. By repeating the draw and adjustment process over multiple iterations, I generated a frequency distribution of adjusted results, from which I obtained a point estimate and simulation interval. These methods were applied without access to the primary record-level dataset. Results The conventional estimates of effect associating alachlor and glyphosate exposure with cancer incidence were likely biased away from the null and understated the uncertainty by quantifying only random error. For example, the conventional p-value for a test of trend in the alachlor study equaled 0.02, whereas fewer than 20% of the bias analysis iterations yielded a p-value of 0.02 or lower. Similarly, the conventional fully-adjusted result associating glyphosate exposure with multiple myleoma equaled 2.6 with 95% confidence interval of 0.7 to 9.4. The frequency distribution generated by the bias analysis yielded a median hazard ratio equal to 1.5 with 95% simulation interval of 0.4 to 8.9, which was 66% wider than the conventional interval. Conclusion Bias analysis provides a more complete picture of true uncertainty than conventional frequentist statistical analysis accompanied by a

  14. Uncertainties and novel prospects in the study of the soil carbon dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang Wang; Yuch-Ping Hsieh

    2002-01-01

    Establishment of the Kyoto Protocol has resulted in an effort to look towards living biomass and soils for carbon sequestration. In order for carbon credits to be meaningful, sustained carbon sequestration for decades or longer is required. It has been speculated that improved land management could result in sequestration of a substantial amount of carbon in soils within several decades and therefore can be an important option in reducing atmospheric CO 2 concentration. However, evaluation of soil carbon sources and sinks is difficult because the dynamics of soil carbon storage and release is complex and still not well understood. There has been rapid development of quantitative techniques over the past two decades for measuring the component fluxes of the global carbon cycle and for studying the soil carbon cycle. Most significant development in the soil carbon cycle study is the application of accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) in radiocarbon measurements. This has made it possible to unravel rates of carbon cycling in soils, by studying natural levels of radiocarbon in soil organic matter and soil CO 2 . Despite the advances in the study of the soil carbon cycle in the recent decades, tremendous uncertainties exist in the sizes and turnover times of soil carbon pools. The uncertainties result from lack of standard methods and incomplete understanding of soil organic carbon dynamics, compounded by natural variability in soil carbon and carbon isotopic content even within the same ecosystem. Many fundamental questions concerning the dynamics of the soil carbon cycle have yet to be answered. This paper reviews and synthesizes the isotopic approaches to the study of the soil carbon cycle. We will focus on uncertainties and limitations associated with these approaches and point out areas where more research is needed to improve our understanding of this important component of the global carbon cycle. (author)

  15. Managing uncertainty in advanced liver disease: a qualitative, multiperspective, serial interview study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimbell, Barbara; Boyd, Kirsty; Kendall, Marilyn; Iredale, John; Murray, Scott A

    2015-11-19

    To understand the experiences and support needs of people with advanced liver disease and those of their lay and professional carers to inform improvements in the supportive and palliative care of this rapidly growing but currently neglected patient group. Multiperspective, serial interviews. We conducted up to three qualitative in-depth interviews with each patient and lay carer over 12 months and single interviews with case-linked healthcare professionals. Data were analysed using grounded theory techniques. Patients with advanced liver disease of diverse aetiologies recruited from an inpatient hepatology ward, and their lay carers and case-linked healthcare professionals nominated by the patients. Primary and secondary care in South-East Scotland. 37 participants (15 patients, 11 lay and 11 professional carers) completed 51 individual and 13 joint patient-carer interviews. Nine patients died during the study. Uncertainty dominated experiences throughout the course of the illness, across patients' considerable physical, psychological, social and existential needs and affected patients, lay carers and professionals. This related to the nature of the condition, the unpredictability of physical deterioration and prognosis, poor communication and information-sharing, and complexities of care. The pervasive uncertainty also shaped patients' and lay carers' strategies for coping and impeded care planning. While patients' acute medical care was usually well coordinated, their ongoing care lacked structure and focus. Living, dying and caring in advanced liver disease is dominated by pervasive, enduring and universally shared uncertainty. In the face of high levels of multidimensional patient distress, professionals must acknowledge this uncertainty in constructive ways that value its contribution to the person's coping approach. Pervasive uncertainty makes anticipatory care planning in advanced liver disease challenging, but planning 'just in case' is vital to ensure

  16. Assessment and Reduction of Model Parametric Uncertainties: A Case Study with A Distributed Hydrological Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gan, Y.; Liang, X. Z.; Duan, Q.; Xu, J.; Zhao, P.; Hong, Y.

    2017-12-01

    The uncertainties associated with the parameters of a hydrological model need to be quantified and reduced for it to be useful for operational hydrological forecasting and decision support. An uncertainty quantification framework is presented to facilitate practical assessment and reduction of model parametric uncertainties. A case study, using the distributed hydrological model CREST for daily streamflow simulation during the period 2008-2010 over ten watershed, was used to demonstrate the performance of this new framework. Model behaviors across watersheds were analyzed by a two-stage stepwise sensitivity analysis procedure, using LH-OAT method for screening out insensitive parameters, followed by MARS-based Sobol' sensitivity indices for quantifying each parameter's contribution to the response variance due to its first-order and higher-order effects. Pareto optimal sets of the influential parameters were then found by the adaptive surrogate-based multi-objective optimization procedure, using MARS model for approximating the parameter-response relationship and SCE-UA algorithm for searching the optimal parameter sets of the adaptively updated surrogate model. The final optimal parameter sets were validated against the daily streamflow simulation of the same watersheds during the period 2011-2012. The stepwise sensitivity analysis procedure efficiently reduced the number of parameters that need to be calibrated from twelve to seven, which helps to limit the dimensionality of calibration problem and serves to enhance the efficiency of parameter calibration. The adaptive MARS-based multi-objective calibration exercise provided satisfactory solutions to the reproduction of the observed streamflow for all watersheds. The final optimal solutions showed significant improvement when compared to the default solutions, with about 65-90% reduction in 1-NSE and 60-95% reduction in |RB|. The validation exercise indicated a large improvement in model performance with about 40

  17. Uncertainty management in Real Estate Development: Studying the potential of SCRUM design methodology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Blokpoel, S.B.; Reymen, Isabelle; Dewulf, Geert P.M.R.; Sariyildiz, S.; Tuncer, B.

    2005-01-01

    Real estate development is all about assessing and controlling risks and uncertainties. Risk management implies making decisions based on quantified risks to execute riskresponse measures. Uncertainties, on the other hand, cannot be quantified and are therefore unpredictable. In literature, much

  18. A Study on the uncertainty and sensitivity in numerical simulation of parametric roll

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Choi, Ju-hyuck; Nielsen, Ulrik Dam; Jensen, Jørgen Juncher

    2016-01-01

    Uncertainties related to numerical modelling of parametric roll have been investigated by using a 6-DOFs model with nonlinear damping and roll restoring forces. At first, uncertainty on damping coefficients and its effect on the roll response is evaluated. Secondly, uncertainty due to the “effect...

  19. Assessing the Expected Value of Research Studies in Reducing Uncertainty and Improving Implementation Dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, Sabine E; Dixon, Simon; Stevens, John W

    2017-07-01

    With low implementation of cost-effective health technologies being a problem in many health systems, it is worth considering the potential effects of research on implementation at the time of health technology assessment. Meaningful and realistic implementation estimates must be of dynamic nature. To extend existing methods for assessing the value of research studies in terms of both reduction of uncertainty and improvement in implementation by considering diffusion based on expert beliefs with and without further research conditional on the strength of evidence. We use expected value of sample information and expected value of specific implementation measure concepts accounting for the effects of specific research studies on implementation and the reduction of uncertainty. Diffusion theory and elicitation of expert beliefs about the shape of diffusion curves inform implementation dynamics. We illustrate use of the resulting dynamic expected value of research in a preterm birth screening technology and results are compared with those from a static analysis. Allowing for diffusion based on expert beliefs had a significant impact on the expected value of research in the case study, suggesting that mistakes are made where static implementation levels are assumed. Incorporating the effects of research on implementation resulted in an increase in the expected value of research compared to the expected value of sample information alone. Assessing the expected value of research in reducing uncertainty and improving implementation dynamics has the potential to complement currently used analyses in health technology assessments, especially in recommendations for further research. The combination of expected value of research, diffusion theory, and elicitation described in this article is an important addition to the existing methods of health technology assessment.

  20. Uncertainty Determination Methodology, Sampling Maps Generation and Trend Studies with Biomass Thermogravimetric Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pazó, Jose A.; Granada, Enrique; Saavedra, Ángeles; Eguía, Pablo; Collazo, Joaquín

    2010-01-01

    This paper investigates a method for the determination of the maximum sampling error and confidence intervals of thermal properties obtained from thermogravimetric analysis (TG analysis) for several lignocellulosic materials (ground olive stone, almond shell, pine pellets and oak pellets), completing previous work of the same authors. A comparison has been made between results of TG analysis and prompt analysis. Levels of uncertainty and errors were obtained, demonstrating that properties evaluated by TG analysis were representative of the overall fuel composition, and no correlation between prompt and TG analysis exists. Additionally, a study of trends and time correlations is indicated. These results are particularly interesting for biomass energy applications. PMID:21152292

  1. Sources of uncertainty in hydrological climate impact assessment: a cross-scale study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hattermann, F. F.; Vetter, T.; Breuer, L.; Su, Buda; Daggupati, P.; Donnelly, C.; Fekete, B.; Flörke, F.; Gosling, S. N.; Hoffmann, P.; Liersch, S.; Masaki, Y.; Motovilov, Y.; Müller, C.; Samaniego, L.; Stacke, T.; Wada, Y.; Yang, T.; Krysnaova, V.

    2018-01-01

    Climate change impacts on water availability and hydrological extremes are major concerns as regards the Sustainable Development Goals. Impacts on hydrology are normally investigated as part of a modelling chain, in which climate projections from multiple climate models are used as inputs to multiple impact models, under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, which result in different amounts of global temperature rise. While the goal is generally to investigate the relevance of changes in climate for the water cycle, water resources or hydrological extremes, it is often the case that variations in other components of the model chain obscure the effect of climate scenario variation. This is particularly important when assessing the impacts of relatively lower magnitudes of global warming, such as those associated with the aspirational goals of the Paris Agreement. In our study, we use ANOVA (analyses of variance) to allocate and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in the hydrological impact modelling chain. In turn we determine the statistical significance of different sources of uncertainty. We achieve this by using a set of five climate models and up to 13 hydrological models, for nine large scale river basins across the globe, under four emissions scenarios. The impact variable we consider in our analysis is daily river discharge. We analyze overall water availability and flow regime, including seasonality, high flows and low flows. Scaling effects are investigated by separately looking at discharge generated by global and regional hydrological models respectively. Finally, we compare our results with other recently published studies. We find that small differences in global temperature rise associated with some emissions scenarios have mostly significant impacts on river discharge—however, climate model related uncertainty is so large that it obscures the sensitivity of the hydrological system.

  2. Stochastic methods for uncertainty treatment of functional variables in computer codes: application to safety studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nanty, Simon

    2015-01-01

    This work relates to the framework of uncertainty quantification for numerical simulators, and more precisely studies two industrial applications linked to the safety studies of nuclear plants. These two applications have several common features. The first one is that the computer code inputs are functional and scalar variables, functional ones being dependent. The second feature is that the probability distribution of functional variables is known only through a sample of their realizations. The third feature, relative to only one of the two applications, is the high computational cost of the code, which limits the number of possible simulations. The main objective of this work was to propose a complete methodology for the uncertainty analysis of numerical simulators for the two considered cases. First, we have proposed a methodology to quantify the uncertainties of dependent functional random variables from a sample of their realizations. This methodology enables to both model the dependency between variables and their link to another variable, called co-variate, which could be, for instance, the output of the considered code. Then, we have developed an adaptation of a visualization tool for functional data, which enables to simultaneously visualize the uncertainties and features of dependent functional variables. Second, a method to perform the global sensitivity analysis of the codes used in the two studied cases has been proposed. In the case of a computationally demanding code, the direct use of quantitative global sensitivity analysis methods is intractable. To overcome this issue, the retained solution consists in building a surrogate model or meta model, a fast-running model approximating the computationally expensive code. An optimized uniform sampling strategy for scalar and functional variables has been developed to build a learning basis for the meta model. Finally, a new approximation approach for expensive codes with functional outputs has been

  3. 846 Department of Geography and Environmental Studies

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    USER

    2015-10-23

    Oct 23, 2015 ... Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies & Management 8(Suppl. 1): 846 – 854 ... explain causes for regional variations of road development. Secondary ... stock road network was 6400 km in 1951 .... Figure 1: Growth of Rural and urban Roads in Ethiopia, 1992-2009 ..... Zone: A Case Study of Ethiopia”.

  4. Assessing the environmental sustainability of early stage design for bioprocesses under uncertainties: An analysis of glycerol bioconversion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Loureiro da Costa Lira Gargalo, Carina; Cheali, Peam; Posada, John A.

    2016-01-01

    The development of a bio-based economy is seen as a key strategy towards a sustainable society in a world facing climate change, energy security and social distress. However, since substantial uncertainty is involved in early-stage design analyses, the ranking and identification of potential......; and lastly, (v) rank the alternatives within the design space. Finally, the methodology's applicability is highlighted by screening early-stage glycerol bioconversion routes to value-added chemicals for future biorefinery concepts. Through the proposed methodology, it was demonstrated that the statistical...

  5. Stochastic, goal-oriented rapid impact modeling of uncertainty and environmental impacts in poorly-sampled sites using ex-situ priors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiaojun; Li, Yandong; Chang, Ching-Fu; Tan, Benjamin; Chen, Ziyang; Sege, Jon; Wang, Changhong; Rubin, Yoram

    2018-01-01

    Modeling of uncertainty associated with subsurface dynamics has long been a major research topic. Its significance is widely recognized for real-life applications. Despite the huge effort invested in the area, major obstacles still remain on the way from theory and applications. Particularly problematic here is the confusion between modeling uncertainty and modeling spatial variability, which translates into a (mis)conception, in fact an inconsistency, in that it suggests that modeling of uncertainty and modeling of spatial variability are equivalent, and as such, requiring a lot of data. This paper investigates this challenge against the backdrop of a 7 km, deep underground tunnel in China, where environmental impacts are of major concern. We approach the data challenge by pursuing a new concept for Rapid Impact Modeling (RIM), which bypasses altogether the need to estimate posterior distributions of model parameters, focusing instead on detailed stochastic modeling of impacts, conditional to all information available, including prior, ex-situ information and in-situ measurements as well. A foundational element of RIM is the construction of informative priors for target parameters using ex-situ data, relying on ensembles of well-documented sites, pre-screened for geological and hydrological similarity to the target site. The ensembles are built around two sets of similarity criteria: a physically-based set of criteria and an additional set covering epistemic criteria. In another variation to common Bayesian practice, we update the priors to obtain conditional distributions of the target (environmental impact) dependent variables and not the hydrological variables. This recognizes that goal-oriented site characterization is in many cases more useful in applications compared to parameter-oriented characterization.

  6. Forecasting landscape effects of Mississippi River diversions on elevation and accretion in Louisiana deltaic wetlands under future environmental uncertainty scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hongqing; Steyer, Gregory D.; Couvillion, Brady R.; John M. Rybczyk,; Beck, Holly J.; William J. Sleavin,; Ehab A. Meselhe,; Mead A. Allison,; Ronald G. Boustany,; Craig J. Fischenich,; Victor H. Rivera-Monroy,

    2014-01-01

    Large sediment diversions are proposed and expected to build new wetlands to alleviate the extensive wetland loss (5,000 km2) affecting coastal Louisiana during the last 78 years. Current assessment and prediction of the impacts of sediment diversions have focused on the capture and dispersal of both water and sediment on the adjacent river side and the immediate outfall marsh area. However, little is known about the effects of sediment diversions on existing wetland surface elevation and vertical accretion dynamics in the receiving basin at the landscape scale. In this study, we used a spatial wetland surface elevation model developed in support of Louisiana's 2012 Coastal Master Plan to examine such landscape-scale effects of sediment diversions. Multiple sediment diversion projects were incorporated in the model to simulate surface elevation and vertical accretion for the next 50 years (2010-2060) under two environmental (moderate and less optimistic) scenarios. Specifically, we examined landscape-scale surface elevation and vertical accretion trends under diversions with different geographical locations, diverted discharge rates, and geomorphic characteristics of the receiving basin. Model results indicate that small diversions ( 1,500 m3 s-1) are required to achieve landscape-level benefits to promote surface elevation via vertical accretion to keep pace with rising sea level.

  7. Ecological forecasting under climatic data uncertainty: a case study in phenological modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cook, Benjamin I; Terando, Adam; Steiner, Allison

    2010-01-01

    Forecasting ecological responses to climate change represents a challenge to the ecological community because models are often site-specific and climate data are lacking at appropriate spatial and temporal resolutions. We use a case study approach to demonstrate uncertainties in ecological predictions related to the driving climatic input data. We use observational records, derived observational datasets (e.g. interpolated observations from local weather stations and gridded data products) and output from general circulation models (GCM) in conjunction with site based phenology models to estimate the first flowering date (FFD) for three woody flowering species. Using derived observations over the modern time period, we find that cold biases and temperature trends lead to biased FFD simulations for all three species. Observational datasets resolved at the daily time step result in better FFD predictions compared to simulations using monthly resolution. Simulations using output from an ensemble of GCM and regional climate models over modern and future time periods have large intra-ensemble spreads and tend to underestimate observed FFD trends for the modern period. These results indicate that certain forcing datasets may be missing key features needed to generate accurate hindcasts at the local scale (e.g. trends, temporal resolution), and that standard modeling techniques (e.g. downscaling, ensemble mean, etc) may not necessarily improve the prediction of the ecological response. Studies attempting to simulate local ecological processes under modern and future climate forcing therefore need to quantify and propagate the climate data uncertainties in their simulations.

  8. Spatial GHG Inventory: Analysis of Uncertainty Sources. A Case Study for Ukraine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bun, R.; Gusti, M.; Kujii, L.; Tokar, O.; Tsybrivskyy, Y.; Bun, A.

    2007-01-01

    A geoinformation technology for creating spatially distributed greenhouse gas inventories based on a methodology provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and special software linking input data, inventory models, and a means for visualization are proposed. This technology opens up new possibilities for qualitative and quantitative spatially distributed presentations of inventory uncertainty at the regional level. Problems concerning uncertainty and verification of the distributed inventory are discussed. A Monte Carlo analysis of uncertainties in the energy sector at the regional level is performed, and a number of simulations concerning the effectiveness of uncertainty reduction in some regions are carried out. Uncertainties in activity data have a considerable influence on overall inventory uncertainty, for example, the inventory uncertainty in the energy sector declines from 3.2 to 2.0% when the uncertainty of energy-related statistical data on fuels combusted in the energy industries declines from 10 to 5%. Within the energy sector, the 'energy industries' subsector has the greatest impact on inventory uncertainty. The relative uncertainty in the energy sector inventory can be reduced from 2.19 to 1.47% if the uncertainty of specific statistical data on fuel consumption decreases from 10 to 5%. The 'energy industries' subsector has the greatest influence in the Donetsk oblast. Reducing the uncertainty of statistical data on electricity generation in just three regions - the Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Luhansk oblasts - from 7.5 to 4.0% results in a decline from 2.6 to 1.6% in the uncertainty in the national energy sector inventory

  9. The Harm that Underestimation of Uncertainty Does to Our Community: A Case Study Using Sunspot Area Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munoz-Jaramillo, Andres

    2017-08-01

    Data products in heliospheric physics are very often provided without clear estimates of uncertainty. From helioseismology in the solar interior, all the way to in situ solar wind measurements beyond 1AU, uncertainty estimates are typically hard for users to find (buried inside long documents that are separate from the data products), or simply non-existent.There are two main reasons why uncertainty measurements are hard to find:1. Understanding instrumental systematic errors is given a much higher priority inside instrumental teams.2. The desire to perfectly understand all sources of uncertainty postpones indefinitely the actual quantification of uncertainty in our measurements.Using the cross calibration of 200 years of sunspot area measurements as a case study, in this presentation we will discuss the negative impact that inadequate measurements of uncertainty have on users, through the appearance of toxic and unnecessary controversies, and data providers, through the creation of unrealistic expectations regarding the information that can be extracted from their data. We will discuss how empirical estimates of uncertainty represent a very good alternative to not providing any estimates at all, and finalize by discussing the bare essentials that should become our standard practice for future instruments and surveys.

  10. Use of 2D/3D data for peak cladding temperature uncertainty studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boyack, B.E.

    1988-01-01

    In August 1988, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) approved the final version of a revised rule on the acceptance of emergency core cooling systems. The revised rule allows emergency core cooling system analysis based on best-estimate methods, provided uncertainties in the prediction of prescribed acceptance limits are quantified and reported. To support the revised rule, the NRC developed the Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty (CSAU) evaluation methodology. Data from the 2D/3D program have been used in a demonstration of the CSAU methodology in two ways. First, the data were used to identify and quantify biases that are related to the implementation of selected correlations and models in the thermal-hydraulic systems code TRAC-PF1/MOD1 as it is used to calculate the demonstration transient, a large-break loss-of-coolant accident. Second, the data were used in a supportive role to provide insight into the accuracy of code calculations and to confirm conclusions that are drawn regarding specific CSAU studies. Examples are provided illustrating each of these two uses of 2D/3D data. 9 refs., 7 figs

  11. Sensitivity and uncertainty studies of the CRAC2 code for selected meteorological models and parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, R.C.; Kocher, D.C.; Hicks, B.B.; Hosker, R.P. Jr.; Ku, J.Y.; Rao, K.S.

    1985-01-01

    We have studied the sensitivity of results from the CRAC2 computer code, which predicts health impacts from a reactor-accident scenario, to uncertainties in selected meteorological models and parameters. The sources of uncertainty examined include the models for plume rise and wet deposition and the meteorological bin-sampling procedure. An alternative plume-rise model usually had little effect on predicted health impacts. In an alternative wet-deposition model, the scavenging rate depends only on storm type, rather than on rainfall rate and atmospheric stability class as in the CRAC2 model. Use of the alternative wet-deposition model in meteorological bin-sampling runs decreased predicted mean early injuries by as much as a factor of 2-3 and, for large release heights and sensible heat rates, decreased mean early fatalities by nearly an order of magnitude. The bin-sampling procedure in CRAC2 was expanded by dividing each rain bin into four bins that depend on rainfall rate. Use of the modified bin structure in conjunction with the CRAC2 wet-deposition model changed all predicted health impacts by less than a factor of 2. 9 references

  12. Jupiter Environmental Research & Field Studies Academy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huttemeyer, Bob

    1996-01-01

    Describes the development and workings of the Jupiter Environmental Research and Field Studies Academy that focuses on enabling both teachers and students to participate in real-life learning experiences. Discusses qualifications for admittance, curriculum, location, ongoing projects, students, academics, preparation for life, problem solving, and…

  13. Tortuguero Bay [Puerto Rico] environmental studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wood, E.D.; Youngbluth, M.J.; Nutt, M.E.; Yoshioka, P.; Canoy, M.J.

    1975-01-01

    Site selection surveys and environmental research studies of seven coastal sites in Puerto Rico for construction of power generating facilities were carried out. Data are presented on the physical, chemical, and geological parameters of the Tortuguero Bay site, and the ecological parameters of zooplankton, benthic invertebrates, plant and fish communities. (U.S.)

  14. Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies and Management ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies and Management: Advanced Search ... AND is implied); Combine multiple words with OR to find articles containing either term; e.g., education OR research; Use parentheses to create more complex queries; e.g., archive ((journal OR conference) NOT theses); Search for an exact ...

  15. Photometric Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Xiao-Duan; Li, Jian-Yang; Clark, Beth Ellen; Golish, Dathon

    2018-01-01

    The OSIRIS-REx spacecraft, launched in September, 2016, will study the asteroid Bennu and return a sample from its surface to Earth in 2023. Bennu is a near-Earth carbonaceous asteroid which will provide insight into the formation and evolution of the solar system. OSIRIS-REx will first approach Bennu in August 2018 and will study the asteroid for approximately two years before sampling. OSIRIS-REx will develop its photometric model (including Lommel-Seelinger, ROLO, McEwen, Minnaert and Akimov) of Bennu with OCAM and OVIRS during the Detailed Survey mission phase. The model developed during this phase will be used to photometrically correct the OCAM and OVIRS data.Here we present the analysis of the error for the photometric corrections. Based on our testing data sets, we find:1. The model uncertainties is only correct when we use the covariance matrix to calculate, because the parameters are highly correlated.2. No evidence of domination of any parameter in each model.3. And both model error and the data error contribute to the final correction error comparably.4. We tested the uncertainty module on fake and real data sets, and find that model performance depends on the data coverage and data quality. These tests gave us a better understanding of how different model behave in different case.5. L-S model is more reliable than others. Maybe because the simulated data are based on L-S model. However, the test on real data (SPDIF) does show slight advantage of L-S, too. ROLO is not reliable to use when calculating bond albedo. The uncertainty of McEwen model is big in most cases. Akimov performs unphysical on SOPIE 1 data.6. Better use L-S as our default choice, this conclusion is based mainly on our test on SOPIE data and IPDIF.

  16. Effects of Uncertainties in Hydrological Modelling. A Case Study of a Mountainous Catchment in Southern Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engeland, Kolbjorn; Steinsland, Ingelin

    2016-04-01

    The aim of this study is to investigate how the inclusion of uncertainties in inputs and observed streamflow influence the parameter estimation, streamflow predictions and model evaluation. In particular we wanted to answer the following research questions: • What is the effect of including a random error in the precipitation and temperature inputs? • What is the effect of decreased information about precipitation by excluding the nearest precipitation station? • What is the effect of the uncertainty in streamflow observations? • What is the effect of reduced information about the true streamflow by using a rating curve where the measurement of the highest and lowest streamflow is excluded when estimating the rating curve? To answer these questions, we designed a set of calibration experiments and evaluation strategies. We used the elevation distributed HBV model operating on daily time steps combined with a Bayesian formulation and the MCMC routine Dream for parameter inference. The uncertainties in inputs was represented by creating ensembles of precipitation and temperature. The precipitation ensemble were created using a meta-gaussian random field approach. The temperature ensembles were created using a 3D Bayesian kriging with random sampling of the temperature laps rate. The streamflow ensembles were generated by a Bayesian multi-segment rating curve model. Precipitation and temperatures were randomly sampled for every day, whereas the streamflow ensembles were generated from rating curve ensembles, and the same rating curve was always used for the whole time series in a calibration or evaluation run. We chose a catchment with a meteorological station measuring precipitation and temperature, and a rating curve of relatively high quality. This allowed us to investigate and further test the effect of having less information on precipitation and streamflow during model calibration, predictions and evaluation. The results showed that including uncertainty

  17. An information-theoretic basis for uncertainty analysis: application to the QUASAR severe accident study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Unwin, S.D.; Cazzoli, E.G.; Davis, R.E.; Khatib-Rahbar, M.; Lee, M.; Nourbakhsh, H.; Park, C.K.; Schmidt, E.

    1989-01-01

    The probabilistic characterization of uncertainty can be problematic in circumstances where there is a paucity of supporting data and limited experience on which to base engineering judgement. Information theory provides a framework in which to address this issue through reliance upon entropy-related principles of uncertainty maximization. We describe an application of such principles in the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission-sponsored program QUASAR (Quantification and Uncertainty Analysis of Source Terms for Severe Accidents in Light Water Reactors). (author)

  18. Measurement uncertainty and gauge capability of surface roughness measurements in the automotive industry: a case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drégelyi-Kiss, Ágota; Czifra, Árpád

    2014-01-01

    The calculation methods of the capability of measurement processes in the automotive industry differ from each other. There are three main calculation methods: MSA, VDA 5 and the international standard, ISO 22514–7. During this research our aim was to compare the capability calculation methods in a case study. Two types of automotive parts (ten pieces of each) are chosen to examine the behaviour of the manufacturing process and to measure the required characteristics of the measurement process being evaluated. The measurement uncertainty of the measuring process is calculated according to the VDA 5 and ISO 22514–7, and MSA guidelines. In this study the conformance of a measurement process in an automotive manufacturing process is determined, and the similarities and the differences between the methods used are shown. (paper)

  19. Examination of the uncertainty in contaminant fate and transport modeling: a case study in the Venice Lagoon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sommerfreund, J; Arhonditsis, G B; Diamond, M L; Frignani, M; Capodaglio, G; Gerino, M; Bellucci, L; Giuliani, S; Mugnai, C

    2010-03-01

    A Monte Carlo analysis is used to quantify environmental parametric uncertainty in a multi-segment, multi-chemical model of the Venice Lagoon. Scientific knowledge, expert judgment and observational data are used to formulate prior probability distributions that characterize the uncertainty pertaining to 43 environmental system parameters. The propagation of this uncertainty through the model is then assessed by a comparative analysis of the moments (central tendency, dispersion) of the model output distributions. We also apply principal component analysis in combination with correlation analysis to identify the most influential parameters, thereby gaining mechanistic insights into the ecosystem functioning. We found that modeled concentrations of Cu, Pb, OCDD/F and PCB-180 varied by up to an order of magnitude, exhibiting both contaminant- and site-specific variability. These distributions generally overlapped with the measured concentration ranges. We also found that the uncertainty of the contaminant concentrations in the Venice Lagoon was characterized by two modes of spatial variability, mainly driven by the local hydrodynamic regime, which separate the northern and central parts of the lagoon and the more isolated southern basin. While spatial contaminant gradients in the lagoon were primarily shaped by hydrology, our analysis also shows that the interplay amongst the in-place historical pollution in the central lagoon, the local suspended sediment concentrations and the sediment burial rates exerts significant control on the variability of the contaminant concentrations. We conclude that the probabilistic analysis presented herein is valuable for quantifying uncertainty and probing its cause in over-parameterized models, while some of our results can be used to dictate where additional data collection efforts should focus on and the directions that future model refinement should follow. (c) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Methods to estimate the between‐study variance and its uncertainty in meta‐analysis†

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Dan; Viechtbauer, Wolfgang; Bender, Ralf; Bowden, Jack; Knapp, Guido; Kuss, Oliver; Higgins, Julian PT; Langan, Dean; Salanti, Georgia

    2015-01-01

    Meta‐analyses are typically used to estimate the overall/mean of an outcome of interest. However, inference about between‐study variability, which is typically modelled using a between‐study variance parameter, is usually an additional aim. The DerSimonian and Laird method, currently widely used by default to estimate the between‐study variance, has been long challenged. Our aim is to identify known methods for estimation of the between‐study variance and its corresponding uncertainty, and to summarise the simulation and empirical evidence that compares them. We identified 16 estimators for the between‐study variance, seven methods to calculate confidence intervals, and several comparative studies. Simulation studies suggest that for both dichotomous and continuous data the estimator proposed by Paule and Mandel and for continuous data the restricted maximum likelihood estimator are better alternatives to estimate the between‐study variance. Based on the scenarios and results presented in the published studies, we recommend the Q‐profile method and the alternative approach based on a ‘generalised Cochran between‐study variance statistic’ to compute corresponding confidence intervals around the resulting estimates. Our recommendations are based on a qualitative evaluation of the existing literature and expert consensus. Evidence‐based recommendations require an extensive simulation study where all methods would be compared under the same scenarios. © 2015 The Authors. Research Synthesis Methods published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. PMID:26332144

  1. Cross section and method uncertainties: the application of sensitivity analysis to study their relationship in radiation transport benchmark problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weisbi, C.R.; Oblow, E.M.; Ching, J.; White, J.E.; Wright, R.Q.; Drischler, J.

    1975-08-01

    Sensitivity analysis is applied to the study of an air transport benchmark calculation to quantify and distinguish between cross-section and method uncertainties. The boundary detector response was converged with respect to spatial and angular mesh size, P/sub l/ expansion of the scattering kernel, and the number and location of energy grid boundaries. The uncertainty in the detector response due to uncertainties in nuclear data is 17.0 percent (one standard deviation, not including uncertainties in energy and angular distribution) based upon the ENDF/B-IV ''error files'' including correlations in energy and reaction type. Differences of approximately 6 percent can be attributed exclusively to differences in processing multigroup transfer matrices. Formal documentation of the PUFF computer program for the generation of multigroup covariance matrices is presented. (47 figures, 14 tables) (U.S.)

  2. Technology Uncertainty and Project Managers' Information Sharing - A comparative case study of two new product development projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jepsen, Lisbeth Brøde; Dietrich, Perttu

    2014-01-01

    uncertainty during various phases of new product development (NPD) projects. In this study, we compare two longitudinal NPD sub-projects that differ in uncertainty within the same large NPD project, in which the data source is the complete email exchange between a project manager and various actors...... (consisting of 3979 emails). The results show high levels of information sharing with the customer in both the early and late phases of high uncertainty. Interestingly, in the low uncertainty project, information sharing with the production department and the supplier is higher during the late phase...... of the NPD project. Unexpectedly, in both sub-projects, the project manager shares information with a wider range of both intra- and inter-organization actors in the early phases of the projects than in the late phases....

  3. Assessing Uncertainties in Gridded Emissions: A Case Study for Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide (FFCO2) Emission Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oda, T.; Ott, L.; Lauvaux, T.; Feng, S.; Bun, R.; Roman, M.; Baker, D. F.; Pawson, S.

    2017-01-01

    Fossil fuel carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions (FFCO2) are the largest input to the global carbon cycle on a decadal time scale. Because total emissions are assumed to be reasonably well constrained by fuel statistics, FFCO2 often serves as a reference in order to deduce carbon uptake by poorly understood terrestrial and ocean sinks. Conventional atmospheric CO2 flux inversions solve for spatially explicit regional sources and sinks and estimate land and ocean fluxes by subtracting FFCO2. Thus, errors in FFCO2 can propagate into the final inferred flux estimates. Gridded emissions are often based on disaggregation of emissions estimated at national or regional level. Although national and regional total FFCO2 are well known, gridded emission fields are subject to additional uncertainties due to the emission disaggregation. Assessing such uncertainties is often challenging because of the lack of physical measurements for evaluation. We first review difficulties in assessing uncertainties associated with gridded FFCO2 emission data and present several approaches for evaluation of such uncertainties at multiple scales. Given known limitations, inter-emission data differences are often used as a proxy for the uncertainty. The popular approach allows us to characterize differences in emissions, but does not allow us to fully quantify emission disaggregation biases. Our work aims to vicariously evaluate FFCO2 emission data using atmospheric models and measurements. We show a global simulation experiment where uncertainty estimates are propagated as an atmospheric tracer (uncertainty tracer) alongside CO2 in NASA's GEOS model and discuss implications of FFCO2 uncertainties in the context of flux inversions. We also demonstrate the use of high resolution urban CO2 simulations as a tool for objectively evaluating FFCO2 data over intense emission regions. Though this study focuses on FFCO2 emission data, the outcome of this study could also help improve the knowledge of similar

  4. Study of the uncertainty in estimation of the exposure of non-human biota to ionising radiation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avila, R; Beresford, N A; Agüero, A; Broed, R; Brown, J; Iospje, M; Robles, B; Suañez, A

    2004-12-01

    Uncertainty in estimations of the exposure of non-human biota to ionising radiation may arise from a number of sources including values of the model parameters, empirical data, measurement errors and biases in the sampling. The significance of the overall uncertainty of an exposure assessment will depend on how the estimated dose compares with reference doses used for risk characterisation. In this paper, we present the results of a study of the uncertainty in estimation of the exposure of non-human biota using some of the models and parameters recommended in the FASSET methodology. The study was carried out for semi-natural terrestrial, agricultural and marine ecosystems, and for four radionuclides (137Cs, 239Pu, 129I and 237Np). The parameters of the radionuclide transfer models showed the highest sensitivity and contributed the most to the uncertainty in the predictions of doses to biota. The most important ones were related to the bioavailability and mobility of radionuclides in the environment, for example soil-to-plant transfer factors, the bioaccumulation factors for marine biota and the gut uptake fraction for terrestrial mammals. In contrast, the dose conversion coefficients showed low sensitivity and contributed little to the overall uncertainty. Radiobiological effectiveness contributed to the overall uncertainty of the dose estimations for alpha emitters although to a lesser degree than a number of transfer model parameters.

  5. Critical Uncertainties and Gaps in the Environmental- and Social-Impact Assessment of the Proposed Interoceanic Canal through Nicaragua.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huete-Pérez, Jorge A; Ortega-Hegg, Manuel; Urquhart, Gerald R; Covich, Alan P; Vammen, Katherine; Rittmann, Bruce E; Miranda, Julio C; Espinoza-Corriols, Sergio; Acevedo, Adolfo; Acosta, María L; Gómez, Juan P; Brett, Michael T; Hanemann, Michael; Härer, Andreas; Incer-Barquero, Jaime; Joyce, Frank J; Lauer, J Wesley; Maes, Jean Michel; Tomson, Mason B; Meyer, Axel; Montenegro-Guillén, Salvador; Whitlow, W Lindsay; Schnoor, Jerald L; Alvarez, Pedro J J

    2016-08-01

    The proposed interoceanic canal will connect the Caribbean Sea with the Pacific Ocean, traversing Lake Nicaragua, the major freshwater reservoir in Central America. If completed, the canal would be the largest infrastructure-related excavation project on Earth. In November 2015, the Nicaraguan government approved an environmental and social impact assessment (ESIA) for the canal. A group of international experts participated in a workshop organized by the Academy of Sciences of Nicaragua to review this ESIA. The group concluded that the ESIA does not meet international standards; essential information is lacking regarding the potential impacts on the lake, freshwater and marine environments, and biodiversity. The ESIA presents an inadequate assessment of natural hazards and socioeconomic disruptions. The panel recommends that work on the canal project be suspended until an appropriate ESIA is completed. The project should be resumed only if it is demonstrated to be economically feasible, environmentally acceptable, and socially beneficial.

  6. Performance Assessment Uncertainty Analysis for Japan's HLW Program Feasibility Study (H12)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    BABA, T.; ISHIGURO, K.; ISHIHARA, Y.; SAWADA, A.; UMEKI, H.; WAKASUGI, K.; WEBB, ERIK K.

    1999-01-01

    Most HLW programs in the world recognize that any estimate of long-term radiological performance must be couched in terms of the uncertainties derived from natural variation, changes through time and lack of knowledge about the essential processes. The Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute followed a relatively standard procedure to address two major categories of uncertainty. First, a FEatures, Events and Processes (FEPs) listing, screening and grouping activity was pursued in order to define the range of uncertainty in system processes as well as possible variations in engineering design. A reference and many alternative cases representing various groups of FEPs were defined and individual numerical simulations performed for each to quantify the range of conceptual uncertainty. Second, parameter distributions were developed for the reference case to represent the uncertainty in the strength of these processes, the sequencing of activities and geometric variations. Both point estimates using high and low values for individual parameters as well as a probabilistic analysis were performed to estimate parameter uncertainty. A brief description of the conceptual model uncertainty analysis is presented. This paper focuses on presenting the details of the probabilistic parameter uncertainty assessment

  7. Environmental injustice: case studies from the South

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cifuentes, Enrique; Frumkin, Howard

    2007-01-01

    We selected three case studies to illustrate environmental injustice issues in the South. These examples relate to migrant agricultural workers, the maquiladora industry and artisanal mining, while reviewing some of the major mechanisms involved, e.g. multinational corporations, the development of free trade zones, multilateral free trade agreements and the export of hazards. A series of strategies are discussed in order to address environmental injustice and health disparities that exist on a global scale. Some of the recommendations involve policy initiatives; others, such as research and mentorship, fall within the traditional domain of public health practice. In this paper, special attention is given to concerned environmental and occupational health professionals using evidence-based data for advocacy. For lasting changes to be made, however, stronger institutions and legislation are required. Those who have the 'right to know' about environmental injustice issues include communities of concern, workers' representatives and lawyers. Government officials and company officials may eventually work on the basis of conflict resolution, compensation and remediation, to quote some examples. Systematic approaches to protect both the environment and public health must be updated

  8. Environmental injustice: case studies from the South

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cifuentes, Enrique; Frumkin, Howard

    2007-10-01

    We selected three case studies to illustrate environmental injustice issues in the South. These examples relate to migrant agricultural workers, the maquiladora industry and artisanal mining, while reviewing some of the major mechanisms involved, e.g. multinational corporations, the development of free trade zones, multilateral free trade agreements and the export of hazards. A series of strategies are discussed in order to address environmental injustice and health disparities that exist on a global scale. Some of the recommendations involve policy initiatives; others, such as research and mentorship, fall within the traditional domain of public health practice. In this paper, special attention is given to concerned environmental and occupational health professionals using evidence-based data for advocacy. For lasting changes to be made, however, stronger institutions and legislation are required. Those who have the 'right to know' about environmental injustice issues include communities of concern, workers' representatives and lawyers. Government officials and company officials may eventually work on the basis of conflict resolution, compensation and remediation, to quote some examples. Systematic approaches to protect both the environment and public health must be updated.

  9. A sensitivity study of s-process: the impact of uncertainties from nuclear reaction rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinyoles, N.; Serenelli, A.

    2016-01-01

    The slow neutron capture process (s-process) is responsible for the production of about half the elements beyond the Fe-peak. The production sites and the conditions under which the different components of s-process occur are relatively well established. A detailed quantitative understanding of s-process nucleosynthesis may yield light in physical processes, e.g. convection and mixing, taking place in the production sites. For this, it is important that the impact of uncertainties in the nuclear physics is well understood. In this work we perform a study of the sensitivity of s-process nucleosynthesis, with particular emphasis in the main component, on the nuclear reaction rates. Our aims are: to quantify the current uncertainties in the production factors of s-process elements originating from nuclear physics and, to identify key nuclear reactions that require more precise experimental determinations. In this work we studied two different production sites in which s-process occurs with very different neutron exposures: 1) a low-mass extremely metal-poor star during the He-core flash (nn reaching up to values of ∼ 1014cm-3); 2) the TP-AGB phase of a M⊙, Z=0.01 model, the typical site of the main s-process component (nn up to 108 — 109cm-3). In the first case, the main variation in the production of s-process elements comes from the neutron poisons and with relative variations around 30%-50%. In the second, the neutron poison are not as important because of the higher metallicity of the star that actually acts as a seed and therefore, the final error of the abundances are much lower around 10%-25%.

  10. Environmental Studies at the Guiana Space Centre

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard, Sandrine

    2013-09-01

    The Environmental Commitment of the French Space Agency at the Guiana Space Centre (CNES / CSG) specifies that the environmental protection is a major stake. Consequently, CNES participates in numerous space programs that contribute significantly to a better knowledge, management and protection of our environment at a global scale.The studies and researches that are done at CNES / CSG meet several objectives:* Assessment of safety and environmental effects and risk related to the effects overflowing due to a pollution caused by ground and flight activities* Improvement of the studies related to the knowledge of the environment (flora and fauna monitoring).* Risk assessment and management which may affect the safety of people , property, and protection of public health and environment * Verification of the compliance of the results of impact studies of launch vehicle in flight phase provided by the launch operator (Technical Regulation) with the French Safety Operational Acts.In this note, study and research programs are presented. They allow a better knowledge of the surrounding environment and of impacts caused by the industrial activities done in Guiana Space Center.

  11. Essays on model uncertainty in financial models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, Jing

    2018-01-01

    This dissertation studies model uncertainty, particularly in financial models. It consists of two empirical chapters and one theoretical chapter. The first empirical chapter (Chapter 2) classifies model uncertainty into parameter uncertainty and misspecification uncertainty. It investigates the

  12. Course Descriptions in Environmental Studies Part Two: Interdisciplinary Courses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunlap, Riley; And Others

    1984-01-01

    Presents descriptions (syllabi, outlines, goals) of interdisciplinary environmental studies courses. Topic areas of these courses include: environmental sociology; human ecology (politics, institutions, and the environment); humans and the environment in historical perspective; environmental management; humans, hazards, and disasters; and other…

  13. Course Descriptions in Environmental Studies Part One: Historical Courses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, Donald; And Others

    1984-01-01

    Presents descriptions (syllabi, outlines, goals) of selected environmental studies courses which approach the discipline from an historical and humanistic perspective. Areas explored in the courses include human ecology, American environmental history, environmental politics, and others. (JN)

  14. Methods and uncertainty estimations of 3-D structural modelling in crystalline rocks: a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Schneeberger

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Exhumed basement rocks are often dissected by faults, the latter controlling physical parameters such as rock strength, porosity, or permeability. Knowledge on the three-dimensional (3-D geometry of the fault pattern and its continuation with depth is therefore of paramount importance for applied geology projects (e.g. tunnelling, nuclear waste disposal in crystalline bedrock. The central Aar massif (Central Switzerland serves as a study area where we investigate the 3-D geometry of the Alpine fault pattern by means of both surface (fieldwork and remote sensing and underground ground (mapping of the Grimsel Test Site information. The fault zone pattern consists of planar steep major faults (kilometre scale interconnected with secondary relay faults (hectometre scale. Starting with surface data, we present a workflow for structural 3-D modelling of the primary faults based on a comparison of three extrapolation approaches based on (a field data, (b Delaunay triangulation, and (c a best-fitting moment of inertia analysis. The quality of these surface-data-based 3-D models is then tested with respect to the fit of the predictions with the underground appearance of faults. All three extrapolation approaches result in a close fit (> 10 % when compared with underground rock laboratory mapping. Subsequently, we performed a statistical interpolation based on Bayesian inference in order to validate and further constrain the uncertainty of the extrapolation approaches. This comparison indicates that fieldwork at the surface is key for accurately constraining the geometry of the fault pattern and enabling a proper extrapolation of major faults towards depth. Considerable uncertainties, however, persist with respect to smaller-sized secondary structures because of their limited spatial extensions and unknown reoccurrence intervals.

  15. Modeling for regional ecosystem sustainable development under uncertainty--A case study of Dongying, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, K; Li, Y P; Huang, G H; You, L; Jin, S W

    2015-11-15

    In this study, a superiority-inferiority two-stage stochastic programming (STSP) method is developed for planning regional ecosystem sustainable development. STSP can tackle uncertainties expressed as fuzzy sets and probability distributions; it can be used to analyze various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic penalties when the promised targets are violated. STSP is applied to a real case of planning regional ecosystem sustainable development in the City of Dongying, where ecosystem services valuation approaches are incorporated within the optimization process. Regional ecosystem can provide direct and indirect services and intangible benefits to local economy. Land trading mechanism is introduced for planning the regional ecosystem's sustainable development, where wetlands are buyers who would protect regional ecosystem components and self-organization and maintain its integrity. Results of regional ecosystem activities, land use patterns, and land trading schemes have been obtained. Results reveal that, although large-scale reclamation projects can bring benefits to the local economy development, they can also bring with negative effects to the coastal ecosystem; among all industry activities oil field is the major contributor with a large number of pollutant discharges into local ecosystem. Results also show that uncertainty has an important role in successfully launching such a land trading program and trading scheme can provide more effective manner to sustain the regional ecosystem. The findings can help decision makers to realize the sustainable development of ecological resources in the process of rapid industrialization, as well as the integration of economic and ecological benefits. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Methods and uncertainty estimations of 3-D structural modelling in crystalline rocks: a case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneeberger, Raphael; de La Varga, Miguel; Egli, Daniel; Berger, Alfons; Kober, Florian; Wellmann, Florian; Herwegh, Marco

    2017-09-01

    Exhumed basement rocks are often dissected by faults, the latter controlling physical parameters such as rock strength, porosity, or permeability. Knowledge on the three-dimensional (3-D) geometry of the fault pattern and its continuation with depth is therefore of paramount importance for applied geology projects (e.g. tunnelling, nuclear waste disposal) in crystalline bedrock. The central Aar massif (Central Switzerland) serves as a study area where we investigate the 3-D geometry of the Alpine fault pattern by means of both surface (fieldwork and remote sensing) and underground ground (mapping of the Grimsel Test Site) information. The fault zone pattern consists of planar steep major faults (kilometre scale) interconnected with secondary relay faults (hectometre scale). Starting with surface data, we present a workflow for structural 3-D modelling of the primary faults based on a comparison of three extrapolation approaches based on (a) field data, (b) Delaunay triangulation, and (c) a best-fitting moment of inertia analysis. The quality of these surface-data-based 3-D models is then tested with respect to the fit of the predictions with the underground appearance of faults. All three extrapolation approaches result in a close fit ( > 10 %) when compared with underground rock laboratory mapping. Subsequently, we performed a statistical interpolation based on Bayesian inference in order to validate and further constrain the uncertainty of the extrapolation approaches. This comparison indicates that fieldwork at the surface is key for accurately constraining the geometry of the fault pattern and enabling a proper extrapolation of major faults towards depth. Considerable uncertainties, however, persist with respect to smaller-sized secondary structures because of their limited spatial extensions and unknown reoccurrence intervals.

  17. Measurement Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koch, Michael

    Measurement uncertainty is one of the key issues in quality assurance. It became increasingly important for analytical chemistry laboratories with the accreditation to ISO/IEC 17025. The uncertainty of a measurement is the most important criterion for the decision whether a measurement result is fit for purpose. It also delivers help for the decision whether a specification limit is exceeded or not. Estimation of measurement uncertainty often is not trivial. Several strategies have been developed for this purpose that will shortly be described in this chapter. In addition the different possibilities to take into account the uncertainty in compliance assessment are explained.

  18. A Study on improvement of comprehensive environmental management system - activation of liberalized environmental management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chung, Hweu Sung; Kang, Chul Goo [Korea Environment Institute, Seoul (Korea)

    1998-12-01

    As a part of improvement on a comprehensive environmental management system, this study was attempted to find an activating policy for a liberalized environmental management. This study provided an activation plan of reasonable environmental regulation reform and liberalized environmental management through the analysis of foreign examples and domestic situation. Furthermore, it analyzed an institutional mechanism for a smooth operation of liberalized environmental management. 68 refs., 5 figs., 51 tabs.

  19. A Unified Approach for Reporting ARM Measurement Uncertainties Technical Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Campos, E [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Sisterson, Douglas [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2016-12-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility is observationally based, and quantifying the uncertainty of its measurements is critically important. With over 300 widely differing instruments providing over 2,500 datastreams, concise expression of measurement uncertainty is quite challenging. The ARM Facility currently provides data and supporting metadata (information about the data or data quality) to its users through a number of sources. Because the continued success of the ARM Facility depends on the known quality of its measurements, the Facility relies on instrument mentors and the ARM Data Quality Office (DQO) to ensure, assess, and report measurement quality. Therefore, an easily accessible, well-articulated estimate of ARM measurement uncertainty is needed. Note that some of the instrument observations require mathematical algorithms (retrievals) to convert a measured engineering variable into a useful geophysical measurement. While those types of retrieval measurements are identified, this study does not address particular methods for retrieval uncertainty. As well, the ARM Facility also provides engineered data products, or value-added products (VAPs), based on multiple instrument measurements. This study does not include uncertainty estimates for those data products. We propose here that a total measurement uncertainty should be calculated as a function of the instrument uncertainty (calibration factors), the field uncertainty (environmental factors), and the retrieval uncertainty (algorithm factors). The study will not expand on methods for computing these uncertainties. Instead, it will focus on the practical identification, characterization, and inventory of the measurement uncertainties already available in the ARM community through the ARM instrument mentors and their ARM instrument handbooks. As a result, this study will address the first steps towards reporting ARM measurement uncertainty

  20. Ambiguity and uncertainty tolerance, need for cognition, and their association with stress. A study among Italian practicing physicians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iannello, Paola; Mottini, Anna; Tirelli, Simone; Riva, Silvia; Antonietti, Alessandro

    2017-01-01

    Medical practice is inherently ambiguous and uncertain. The physicians' ability to tolerate ambiguity and uncertainty has been proved to have a great impact on clinical practice. The primary aim of the present study was to test the hypothesis that higher degree of physicians' ambiguity and uncertainty intolerance and higher need for cognitive closure will predict higher work stress. Two hundred and twelve physicians (mean age = 42.94 years; SD = 10.72) from different medical specialties with different levels of expertise were administered a set of questionnaires measuring perceived levels of work-related stress, individual ability to tolerate ambiguity, stress deriving from uncertainty, and personal need for cognitive closure. A linear regression analysis was performed to examine which variables predict the perceived level of stress. The regression model was statistically significant [R 2  = .32; F(10,206) = 8.78, p ≤ .001], thus showing that, after controlling for gender and medical specialty, ambiguity and uncertainty tolerance, decisiveness (a dimension included in need for closure), and the years of practice were significant predictors of perceived work-related stress. Findings from the present study have some implications for medical education. Given the great impact that the individual ability to tolerate ambiguity and uncertainty has on the physicians' level of perceived work-related stress, it would be worth paying particular attention to such a skill in medical education settings. It would be crucial to introduce or to empower educational tools and strategies that could increase medical students' ability to tolerate ambiguity and uncertainty. JSQ: Job stress questionnaire; NFCS: Need for cognitive closure scale; PRU: Physicians' reactions to uncertainty; TFA: Tolerance for ambiguity.

  1. Estimating U.S. Methane Emissions from the Natural Gas Supply Chain. Approaches, Uncertainties, Current Estimates, and Future Studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heath, Garvin [Joint Inst. for Strategic Energy Analysis, Golden, CO (United States); Warner, Ethan [Joint Inst. for Strategic Energy Analysis, Golden, CO (United States); Steinberg, Daniel [Joint Inst. for Strategic Energy Analysis, Golden, CO (United States); Brandt, Adam [Stanford Univ., CA (United States)

    2015-08-01

    A growing number of studies have raised questions regarding uncertainties in our understanding of methane (CH4) emissions from fugitives and venting along the natural gas (NG) supply chain. In particular, a number of measurement studies have suggested that actual levels of CH4 emissions may be higher than estimated by EPA" tm s U.S. GHG Emission Inventory. We reviewed the literature to identify the growing number of studies that have raised questions regarding uncertainties in our understanding of methane (CH4) emissions from fugitives and venting along the natural gas (NG) supply chain.

  2. Environmental and Social Impact Study: Final Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-04-01

    The tsetse control project (commonly known as tsetse flies) is an initiative of the Directorate of Livestock (project coordinating institution) and the ISRA (Senegalese Agricultural Research Institute) Accompaniment and diagnosis of the project. It is part of the cooperation between Senegal and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).The method of control that will be applied is the technique of sterile males.This technique of sterile males, however, is coupled with the use of deltamethrin (D6), a neurotoxic chemical (in adult insects) that is fast and fairly rapidly biodegradable in the environment.This study is carried out with the aim of taking good account of the environmental impacts of the various activities envisaged by the project. Its objective is to assess the biophysical, social and economic impacts of the project and to propose measures to mitigate or compensate for negative impacts and to reinforce positive impacts within the framework of an Environmental Management Plan and (ESMP). It also presents an environmental and social monitoring and monitoring plan to assess the effectiveness of the proposed mitigation measures.

  3. Assessing spatial uncertainties of land allocation using a scenario approach and sensitivity analysis: A study for land use in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verburg, P.H.; Tabeau, A.A.; Hatna, E.

    2013-01-01

    Land change model outcomes are vulnerable to multiple types of uncertainty, including uncertainty in input data, structural uncertainties in the model and uncertainties in model parameters. In coupled model systems the uncertainties propagate between the models. This paper assesses uncertainty of

  4. Stress From Uncertainty and Resilience Among Depressed and Burned Out Residents: A Cross-Sectional Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpkin, Arabella L; Khan, Alisa; West, Daniel C; Garcia, Briana M; Sectish, Theodore C; Spector, Nancy D; Landrigan, Christopher P

    2018-03-07

    Depression and burnout are highly prevalent among residents, but little is known about modifiable personality variables, such as resilience and stress from uncertainty, that may predispose to these conditions. Residents are routinely faced with uncertainty when making medical decisions. To determine how stress from uncertainty is related to resilience among pediatric residents and whether these attributes are associated with depression and burnout. We surveyed 86 residents in pediatric residency programs from 4 urban freestanding children's hospitals in North America in 2015. Stress from uncertainty was measured with the use of the Physicians' Reaction to Uncertainty Scale, resilience with the use of the 14-item Resilience Scale, depression with the use of the Harvard National Depression Screening Scale; and burnout with the use of single-item measures of emotional exhaustion and depersonalization from the Maslach Burnout Inventory. Fifty out of 86 residents responded to the survey (58.1%). Higher levels of stress from uncertainty correlated with lower resilience (r = -0.60; P resilience (56.6 ± 10.7 vs 85.4 ± 8.0; P resilience (76.7 ± 14.8 vs 85.0 ± 9.77; P = .02) compared with residents who were not burned out. We found high levels of stress from uncertainty, and low levels of resilience were strongly correlated with depression and burnout. Efforts to enhance tolerance of uncertainty and resilience among residents may provide opportunities to mitigate resident depression and burnout. Copyright © 2018 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Water shortage risk assessment considering large-scale regional transfers: a copula-based uncertainty case study in Lunan, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Xueping; Liu, Yinzhu; Sun, Bowen

    2018-06-05

    The risk of water shortage caused by uncertainties, such as frequent drought, varied precipitation, multiple water resources, and different water demands, brings new challenges to the water transfer projects. Uncertainties exist for transferring water and local surface water; therefore, the relationship between them should be thoroughly studied to prevent water shortage. For more effective water management, an uncertainty-based water shortage risk assessment model (UWSRAM) is developed to study the combined effect of multiple water resources and analyze the shortage degree under uncertainty. The UWSRAM combines copula-based Monte Carlo stochastic simulation and the chance-constrained programming-stochastic multiobjective optimization model, using the Lunan water-receiving area in China as an example. Statistical copula functions are employed to estimate the joint probability of available transferring water and local surface water and sampling from the multivariate probability distribution, which are used as inputs for the optimization model. The approach reveals the distribution of water shortage and is able to emphasize the importance of improving and updating transferring water and local surface water management, and examine their combined influence on water shortage risk assessment. The possible available water and shortages can be calculated applying the UWSRAM, also with the corresponding allocation measures under different water availability levels and violating probabilities. The UWSRAM is valuable for mastering the overall multi-water resource and water shortage degree, adapting to the uncertainty surrounding water resources, establishing effective water resource planning policies for managers and achieving sustainable development.

  6. The Interplay among Environmental Attitudes, Pro-Environmental Behavior, Social Identity, and Pro-Environmental Institutional Climate. A Longitudinal Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prati, Gabriele; Albanesi, Cinzia; Pietrantoni, Luca

    2017-01-01

    By using a panel design in a sample of 298 undergraduate/master students at an Italian public university, the present study aimed to test longitudinally the interplay among environmental attitudes, pro-environmental behavior, social identity, and pro-environmental institutional climate. The relationships were tested with cross-lagged analysis…

  7. Uncertainties in Early Stage Capital Cost Estimation of Process Design – A case study on biorefinery design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gurkan eSin

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Capital investment, next to the product demand, sales and production costs, is one of the key metrics commonly used for project evaluation and feasibility assessment. Estimating the investment costs of a new product/process alternative during early stage design is a challenging task. This is especially important in biorefinery research, where available information and experiences with new technologies is limited. A systematic methodology for uncertainty analysis of cost data is proposed that employs (a Bootstrapping as a regression method when cost data is available and (b the Monte Carlo technique as an error propagation method based on expert input when cost data is not available. Four well-known models for early stage cost estimation are reviewed an analyzed using the methodology. The significance of uncertainties of cost data for early stage process design is highlighted using the synthesis and design of a biorefinery as a case study. The impact of uncertainties in cost estimation on the identification of optimal processing paths is found to be profound. To tackle this challenge, a comprehensive techno-economic risk analysis framework is presented to enable robust decision making under uncertainties. One of the results using an order-of-magnitude estimate shows that the production of diethyl ether and 1,3-butadiene are the most promising with economic risks of 0.24 MM$/a and 4.6 MM$/a due to uncertainties in cost estimations, respectively.

  8. An integrated GIS-based interval-probabilistic programming model for land-use planning management under uncertainty--a case study at Suzhou, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Shasha; Zhou, Min; Guan, Xingliang; Tao, Lizao

    2015-03-01

    A large number of mathematical models have been developed for supporting optimization of land-use allocation; however, few of them simultaneously consider land suitability (e.g., physical features and spatial information) and various uncertainties existing in many factors (e.g., land availabilities, land demands, land-use patterns, and ecological requirements). This paper incorporates geographic information system (GIS) technology into interval-probabilistic programming (IPP) for land-use planning management (IPP-LUPM). GIS is utilized to assemble data for the aggregated land-use alternatives, and IPP is developed for tackling uncertainties presented as discrete intervals and probability distribution. Based on GIS, the suitability maps of different land users are provided by the outcomes of land suitability assessment and spatial analysis. The maximum area of every type of land use obtained from the suitability maps, as well as various objectives/constraints (i.e., land supply, land demand of socioeconomic development, future development strategies, and environmental capacity), is used as input data for the optimization of land-use areas with IPP-LUPM model. The proposed model not only considers the outcomes of land suitability evaluation (i.e., topography, ground conditions, hydrology, and spatial location) but also involves economic factors, food security, and eco-environmental constraints, which can effectively reflect various interrelations among different aspects in a land-use planning management system. The case study results at Suzhou, China, demonstrate that the model can help to examine the reliability of satisfying (or risk of violating) system constraints under uncertainty. Moreover, it may identify the quantitative relationship between land suitability and system benefits. Willingness to arrange the land areas based on the condition of highly suitable land will not only reduce the potential conflicts on the environmental system but also lead to a lower

  9. Systematic Evaluation of Uncertainty in Material Flow Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laner, David; Rechberger, Helmut; Astrup, Thomas Fruergaard

    2014-01-01

    Material flow analysis (MFA) is a tool to investigate material flows and stocks in defined systems as a basis for resource management or environmental pollution control. Because of the diverse nature of sources and the varying quality and availability of data, MFA results are inherently uncertain....... Uncertainty analyses have received increasing attention in recent MFA studies, but systematic approaches for selection of appropriate uncertainty tools are missing. This article reviews existing literature related to handling of uncertainty in MFA studies and evaluates current practice of uncertainty analysis......) and exploratory MFA (identification of critical parameters and system behavior). Whereas mathematically simpler concepts focusing on data uncertainty characterization are appropriate for descriptive MFAs, statistical approaches enabling more-rigorous evaluation of uncertainty and model sensitivity are needed...

  10. TRAN-STAT: statistics for environmental studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilbert, R.O.

    1984-09-01

    This issue of TRAN-STAT discusses statistical methods for assessing the uncertainty in predictions of pollutant transport models, particularly for radionuclides. Emphasis is placed on radionuclide transport models but the statistical assessment techniques also apply in general to other types of pollutants. The report begins with an outline of why an assessment of prediction uncertainties is important. This is followed by an introduction to several methods currently used in these assessments. This in turn is followed by more detailed discussion of the methods, including examples. 43 references, 2 figures

  11. Risk management of energy system for identifying optimal power mix with financial-cost minimization and environmental-impact mitigation under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nie, S.; Li, Y.P.; Liu, J.; Huang, Charley Z.

    2017-01-01

    An interval-stochastic risk management (ISRM) method is launched to control the variability of the recourse cost as well as to capture the notion of risk in stochastic programming. The ISRM method can examine various policy scenarios that are associated with economic penalties under uncertainties presented as probability distributions and interval values. An ISRM model is then formulated to identify the optimal power mix for the Beijing's energy system. Tradeoffs between risk and cost are evaluated, indicating any change in targeted cost and risk level would yield different expected costs. Results reveal that the inherent uncertainty of system components and risk attitude of decision makers have significant effects on the city's energy-supply and electricity-generation schemes as well as system cost and probabilistic penalty. Results also disclose that import electricity as a recourse action to compensate the local shortage would be enforced. The import electricity would increase with a reduced risk level; under every risk level, more electricity would be imported with an increased demand. The findings can facilitate the local authority in identifying desired strategies for the city's energy planning and management in association with financial-cost minimization and environmental-impact mitigation. - Highlights: • Interval-stochastic risk management method is launched to identify optimal power mix. • It is advantageous in capturing the notion of risk in stochastic programming. • Results reveal that risk attitudes can affect optimal power mix and financial cost. • Developing renewable energies would enhance the sustainability of energy management. • Import electricity as an action to compensate the local shortage would be enforced.

  12. A Study on Data Base for the Pyroprocessing Material Flow and MUF Uncertainty Simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sitompul, Yos Panagaman; Shin, Heesung; Han, Boyoung; Kim, Hodong

    2011-01-01

    The data base for the pyroprocessing material flow and MUF uncertainty simulation has been implemented well. There is no error in the data base processing and it is relatively fast by using OLEDB and MySQL. The important issue is the data base size. In OLEDB the data base size is limited to 2 Gb. To reduce the data base size, we give an option for users to filter the input nuclides based on their masses and activities. A simulation program called PYMUS has been developed to study the pyroprocessing material flow and MUF. In the program, there is a data base system that controls the data processing in the simulation. The data base system consists of input data base, data processing, and output data base. The data base system has been designed in such a way to be efficient. One example is using the OLEDB and MySQL. The data base system is explained in detail in this paper. The result shows that the data base system works well in the simulation

  13. Study on Material Parameters Identification of Brain Tissue Considering Uncertainty of Friction Coefficient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, Fengjiao; Zhang, Guanjun; Liu, Jie; Wang, Shujing; Luo, Xu; Zhu, Feng

    2017-10-01

    Accurate material parameters are critical to construct the high biofidelity finite element (FE) models. However, it is hard to obtain the brain tissue parameters accurately because of the effects of irregular geometry and uncertain boundary conditions. Considering the complexity of material test and the uncertainty of friction coefficient, a computational inverse method for viscoelastic material parameters identification of brain tissue is presented based on the interval analysis method. Firstly, the intervals are used to quantify the friction coefficient in the boundary condition. And then the inverse problem of material parameters identification under uncertain friction coefficient is transformed into two types of deterministic inverse problem. Finally the intelligent optimization algorithm is used to solve the two types of deterministic inverse problems quickly and accurately, and the range of material parameters can be easily acquired with no need of a variety of samples. The efficiency and convergence of this method are demonstrated by the material parameters identification of thalamus. The proposed method provides a potential effective tool for building high biofidelity human finite element model in the study of traffic accident injury.

  14. Accelerated uncertainty propagation in two-level probabilistic studies under monotony

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Limbourg, Philipp; Rocquigny, Etienne de; Andrianov, Guennadi

    2010-01-01

    Double-level probabilistic uncertainty models that separate aleatory and epistemic components enjoy significant interest in risk assessment. But the expensive computational costs associated with calculations of rare failure probabilities are still a large obstacle in practice. Computing accurately a risk lower than 10 -3 with 95% epistemic confidence usually requires 10 7 -10 8 runs in a brute-force double Monte Carlo. For single-level probabilistic studies, FORM (First Order Reliability Analysis) is a classical recipe allowing fast approximation of failure probabilities while MRM (Monotonous Reliability Method) recently proved an attractive robust alternative under monotony. This paper extends these methods to double-level probabilistic models through two novel algorithms designed to compute a set of failure probabilities or an aleatory risk level with an epistemic confidence quantile. The first, L2-FORM (level-2 FORM), allows a rapid approximation of the failure probabilities through a combination of FORM with new ideas to use similarity between computations. L2-MRM (level-2 MRM), a quadrature approach, provides 100%-guaranteed error bounds on the results. Experiments on three flood prediction problems showed that both algorithms approximate a set of 500 failure probabilities of 10 -3 -10 -2 or derived 95% epistemic quantiles with a total of only 500-1000 function evaluations, outperforming importance sampling, iterative FORM and regression splines metamodels.

  15. Dealing with Dependent Uncertainty in Modelling: A Comparative Study Case through the Airy Equation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-C. Cortés

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The consideration of uncertainty in differential equations leads to the emergent area of random differential equations. Under this approach, inputs become random variables and/or stochastic processes. Often one assumes that inputs are independent, a hypothesis that simplifies the mathematical treatment although it could not be met in applications. In this paper, we analyse, through the Airy equation, the influence of statistical dependence of inputs on the output, computing its expectation and standard deviation by Fröbenius and Polynomial Chaos methods. The results are compared with Monte Carlo sampling. The analysis is conducted by the Airy equation since, as in the deterministic scenario its solutions are highly oscillatory, it is expected that differences will be better highlighted. To illustrate our study, and motivated by the ubiquity of Gaussian random variables in numerous practical problems, we assume that inputs follow a multivariate Gaussian distribution throughout the paper. The application of Fröbenius method to solve Airy equation is based on an extension of the method to the case where inputs are dependent. The numerical results show that the existence of statistical dependence among the inputs and its magnitude entails changes on the variability of the output.

  16. A Study of the Impact of Underground Economy on Integral Tax Burden in the Proportional Growth Model under Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akif Musayev

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Economic processes are naturally characterized by imprecise and uncertain relevant information. One of the main reasons is existence of an underground economy. However, in existing works, real-world imprecision and uncertainty of economic conditions are not taken into account. In this paper we consider a problem of calculation of a taxation base to assess tax burden for proportionally growing economy under uncertainty. In order to account for imprecision and uncertainty of economic processes, we use the theory of fuzzy sets. A fuzzy integral equation is used to identify an integral tax burden taking into account the contribution of the underground economy for a certain financial (tax year. It is also assumed that dynamics of gross domestic product are modeled by fuzzy linear differential equation. An optimal value of tax burden is determined as a solution to the considered fuzzy integral equation. An example is provided to illustrate validity of the proposed study.

  17. Uncertainty in hydrological signatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMillan, Hilary; Westerberg, Ida

    2015-04-01

    Information that summarises the hydrological behaviour or flow regime of a catchment is essential for comparing responses of different catchments to understand catchment organisation and similarity, and for many other modelling and water-management applications. Such information types derived as an index value from observed data are known as hydrological signatures, and can include descriptors of high flows (e.g. mean annual flood), low flows (e.g. mean annual low flow, recession shape), the flow variability, flow duration curve, and runoff ratio. Because the hydrological signatures are calculated from observed data such as rainfall and flow records, they are affected by uncertainty in those data. Subjective choices in the method used to calculate the signatures create a further source of uncertainty. Uncertainties in the signatures may affect our ability to compare different locations, to detect changes, or to compare future water resource management scenarios. The aim of this study was to contribute to the hydrological community's awareness and knowledge of data uncertainty in hydrological signatures, including typical sources, magnitude and methods for its assessment. We proposed a generally applicable method to calculate these uncertainties based on Monte Carlo sampling and demonstrated it for a variety of commonly used signatures. The study was made for two data rich catchments, the 50 km2 Mahurangi catchment in New Zealand and the 135 km2 Brue catchment in the UK. For rainfall data the uncertainty sources included point measurement uncertainty, the number of gauges used in calculation of the catchment spatial average, and uncertainties relating to lack of quality control. For flow data the uncertainty sources included uncertainties in stage/discharge measurement and in the approximation of the true stage-discharge relation by a rating curve. The resulting uncertainties were compared across the different signatures and catchments, to quantify uncertainty

  18. A phantom-based study for assessing the error and uncertainty of a neuronavigation system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalia Izquierdo-Cifuentes

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This document describes a calibration protocol with the intention to introduce a guide to standardize the metrological vocabulary among manufacturers of image-guided surgery systems. Two stages were developed to measure the errors and estimate the uncertainty of a neuronavigator in different situations, on the first one it was determined a mechanical error on a virtual model of an acrylic phantom, on the second it was determined a coordinate error on the computerized axial tomography scan of the same phantom. Ten standard coordinates of the phantom were compared with the coordinates generated by the NeuroCPS. After measurement model was established, there were identified the sources of uncertainty and the data was processed according the guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurement.

  19. Affective decision making under uncertainty during a plausible aviation task: an fMRI study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Causse, Mickaël; Péran, Patrice; Dehais, Frédéric; Caravasso, Chiara Falletta; Zeffiro, Thomas; Sabatini, Umberto; Pastor, Josette

    2013-05-01

    In aeronautics, plan continuation error (PCE) represents failure to revise a flight plan despite emerging evidence suggesting that it is no longer safe. Assuming that PCE may be associated with a shift from cold to hot reasoning, we hypothesized that this transition may result from a large range of strong negative emotional influences linked with the decision to abort a landing and circle for a repeat attempt, referred to as a "go-around". We investigated this hypothesis by combining functional neuroimaging with an ecologically valid aviation task performed under contextual variation in incentive and situational uncertainty. Our goal was to identify regional brain activity related to the sorts of conservative or liberal decision-making strategies engaged when participants were both exposed to a financial payoff matrix constructed to bias responses in favor of landing acceptance, while they were simultaneously experiencing maximum levels of uncertainty related to high levels of stimulus ambiguity. Combined with the observed behavioral outcomes, our neuroimaging results revealed a shift from cold to hot decision making in response to high uncertainty when participants were exposed to the financial incentive. Most notably, while we observed activity increases in response to uncertainty in many frontal regions such as dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) and anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), less overall activity was observed when the reward was combined with uncertainty. Moreover, participants with poor decision making, quantified as a lower discriminability index d', exhibited riskier behavior coupled with lower activity in the right DLPFC. These outcomes suggest a disruptive effect of biased financial incentive and high uncertainty on the rational decision-making neural network, and consequently, on decision relevance. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Choice and uncertainty in a semi-subsistence economy : a study of decision making in a Philippine village

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huijsman, A.

    1986-01-01

    This study deals with the response of Philippine rice farmers to uncertainties and associated risks in the production environment. Farmers' risk behaviour is analyzed within the context of land use intensification through the adoption and utilization of the socalled 'modern seed-fertilizer'

  1. Routine for uncertainties evaluation: study case in mammography; Roteiro para avaliacao de incertezas: caso estudo em mamografia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peixoto, J.G.P. [Instituto de Radioprotecao e Dosimetria (IRD/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)]. E-mail: guiherm@ird.gov.br; Almeida, C.E.V de [Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (UERJ/LCR), RJ (Brazil). Lab. de Ciencias Radiologicas

    2005-03-15

    This paper gives a orientation in the identification of uncertainties in the measurement object and the influence magnitudes which directly affect the results of measurements. The entry magnitudes presented in this work applies exclusively for this study case, and their use depends of the professional for the choice of those entry magnitudes.

  2. Uncertainty and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Berliner, L. Mark

    2003-01-01

    Anthropogenic, or human-induced, climate change is a critical issue in science and in the affairs of humankind. Though the target of substantial research, the conclusions of climate change studies remain subject to numerous uncertainties. This article presents a very brief review of the basic arguments regarding anthropogenic climate change with particular emphasis on uncertainty.

  3. Uncertainty and simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Depres, B.; Dossantos-Uzarralde, P.

    2009-01-01

    More than 150 researchers and engineers from universities and the industrial world met to discuss on the new methodologies developed around assessing uncertainty. About 20 papers were presented and the main topics were: methods to study the propagation of uncertainties, sensitivity analysis, nuclear data covariances or multi-parameter optimisation. This report gathers the contributions of CEA researchers and engineers

  4. Application of Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis Methods to a Validation Study for Weapons-Grade Mixed-Oxide Fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dunn, M.E.

    2001-01-01

    At the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), sensitivity and uncertainty (S/U) analysis methods and a Generalized Linear Least-Squares Methodology (GLLSM) have been developed to quantitatively determine the similarity or lack thereof between critical benchmark experiments and an application of interest. The S/U and GLLSM methods provide a mathematical approach, which is less judgment based relative to traditional validation procedures, to assess system similarity and estimate the calculational bias and uncertainty for an application of interest. The objective of this paper is to gain experience with the S/U and GLLSM methods by revisiting a criticality safety evaluation and associated traditional validation for the shipment of weapons-grade (WG) MOX fuel in the MO-1 transportation package. In the original validation, critical experiments were selected based on a qualitative assessment of the MO-1 and MOX contents relative to the available experiments. Subsequently, traditional trending analyses were used to estimate the Δk bias and associated uncertainty. In this paper, the S/U and GLLSM procedures are used to re-evaluate the suite of critical experiments associated with the original MO-1 evaluation. Using the S/U procedures developed at ORNL, critical experiments that are similar to the undamaged and damaged MO-1 package are identified based on sensitivity and uncertainty analyses of the criticals and the MO-1 package configurations. Based on the trending analyses developed for the S/U and GLLSM procedures, the Δk bias and uncertainty for the most reactive MO-1 package configurations are estimated and used to calculate an upper subcritical limit (USL) for the MO-1 evaluation. The calculated bias and uncertainty from the S/U and GLLSM analyses lead to a calculational USL that supports the original validation study for the MO-1

  5. Risco, incerteza e as possibilidades de ação na saúde ambiental Risk, uncertainty and the possibilities of action in environmental health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renato Rocha Lieber

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available O conceito de risco vem tendo uso crescente no entendimento das relações entre saúde e ambiente. Uma revisão recente do seu emprego¹ mostrou que o risco é próprio da condição humana e que a exclusão da incerteza promove a manutenção do status quo. O problema que se coloca é como propor ações de melhoria na saúde ambiental sob os pressupostos da dúvida e da incerteza que caracterizam a condição de risco. Como proposta de solução, a obra de H. Arendt² prestou-se ao exame dos significados e das implicações da incerteza no campo do pensamento e no campo da ação. Os resultados mostram que o risco se insere na lacuna construída entre o passado e o futuro. Quando esta lacuna passa a ser entendida como espaço de possibilidades, a incerteza, produzida no campo do pensamento fomenta a liberdade e a participação no campo da ação. A valorização da subjetividade e o exercício do juízo promovem a configuração de novos contextos e de novas possibilidades de ação, tanto em relação à natureza como em relação aos homens. Este conhecimento novo se insere na lacuna entre passado e futuro e realimenta o processo. Conclui-se que as ações de "promoção da saúde" devem estar aptas a aceitar resultados não necessariamente idealizados. Na ação livre não existem certezas e a sua relevância não está nos fins que se possa estabelecer, mas no processo do seu exercício.The concept of risk has been increasingly used in the understanding of the relationship between health and environment. A recent review of its use¹ showed that risk belongs to the human condition and that excluding uncertainty promotes maintaining the status quo. The question is how to propose actions to improve environmental health under the assumptions of doubt and uncertainty that characterize the condition of risk. As a proposal for a solution, the work of H. Arendt² examined the meanings and implications of uncertainty in the field of thought and

  6. Environmental Studies Group progress report for 1979

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunt, D.C.; Hurley, J.D.

    1981-01-01

    The 1979 progress report gives descriptions, results, and/or status on programs involving (1) physical transport of radionuclides in blowing dust, (2) radionuclide distributions in the sediment of area water bodies, (3) management of open space lands (including a remote sensing program) at Rocky Flats, (4) the ecology and radioecology of terrestrial open space areas in Plant site lands, (5) biological pathways for radionuclide transport, (6) evaluations of environmental monitoring data on radionuclides in air and water, (7) results of a special soil sampling program on lands adjacent to the Plant site, and (8) two special programs - one concerning evaluations of epidemiological studies of health effects purported to be related to the Plant, and a second that specifies information on accumulations of material in process building filter plenums required for evaluation of potential accidents

  7. Environmental Comparative Risk Assessment: A Case Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, M.M.

    2007-01-01

    Health and environmental impacts associated with energy production and industrial activities as well as food production and agricultural activities have had great concern in the last decades. Early activities emerged in late 80s of the last century through an Inter- Agency project (lAEA, UNDY, WHO, ... ) on the comparative risk assessment from energy systems and industrial complexes. A work-shop on Risk Assessment and Management in large industrial areas was held in Alexandria Egypt on 20-33 Det 1993, sponsored by IAEA. Several conferences, experts work groups and workshops were held there of Recent trends in determining risks are: 1. Use of probabilistic risk assessment approach to identify hazardous activities and accident scenario. 2. development of data base on failure probabilities and appropriate physical models. 3. Development of related directives and regulations and criteria Comparative risk assessment case study as a tool for comparing risk is emphasized Criteria of exposure to human and ecological risks are addressed

  8. Balancing uncertainty of context in ERP project estimation: an approach and a case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Daneva, Maia

    2010-01-01

    The increasing demand for Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) solutions as well as the high rates of troubled ERP implementations and outright cancellations calls for developing effort estimation practices to systematically deal with uncertainties in ERP projects. This paper describes an approach -

  9. Monte-Carlo-based uncertainty propagation with hierarchical models—a case study in dynamic torque

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klaus, Leonard; Eichstädt, Sascha

    2018-04-01

    For a dynamic calibration, a torque transducer is described by a mechanical model, and the corresponding model parameters are to be identified from measurement data. A measuring device for the primary calibration of dynamic torque, and a corresponding model-based calibration approach, have recently been developed at PTB. The complete mechanical model of the calibration set-up is very complex, and involves several calibration steps—making a straightforward implementation of a Monte Carlo uncertainty evaluation tedious. With this in mind, we here propose to separate the complete model into sub-models, with each sub-model being treated with individual experiments and analysis. The uncertainty evaluation for the overall model then has to combine the information from the sub-models in line with Supplement 2 of the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement. In this contribution, we demonstrate how to carry this out using the Monte Carlo method. The uncertainty evaluation involves various input quantities of different origin and the solution of a numerical optimisation problem.

  10. Electricity system expansion studies to consider uncertainties and interactions in restructured markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Shan

    This dissertation concerns power system expansion planning under different market mechanisms. The thesis follows a three paper format, in which each paper emphasizes a different perspective. The first paper investigates the impact of market uncertainties on a long term centralized generation expansion planning problem. The problem is modeled as a two-stage stochastic program with uncertain fuel prices and demands, which are represented as probabilistic scenario paths in a multi-period tree. Two measurements, expected cost (EC) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), are used to minimize, respectively, the total expected cost among scenarios and the risk of incurring high costs in unfavorable scenarios. We sample paths from the scenario tree to reduce the problem scale and determine the sufficient number of scenarios by computing confidence intervals on the objective values. The second paper studies an integrated electricity supply system including generation, transmission and fuel transportation with a restructured wholesale electricity market. This integrated system expansion problem is modeled as a bi-level program in which a centralized system expansion decision is made in the upper level and the operational decisions of multiple market participants are made in the lower level. The difficulty of solving a bi-level programming problem to global optimality is discussed and three problem relaxations obtained by reformulation are explored. The third paper solves a more realistic market-based generation and transmission expansion problem. It focuses on interactions among a centralized transmission expansion decision and decentralized generation expansion decisions. It allows each generator to make its own strategic investment and operational decisions both in response to a transmission expansion decision and in anticipation of a market price settled by an Independent System Operator (ISO) market clearing problem. The model poses a complicated tri-level structure

  11. Joint HVAC transmission EMF environmental study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stormshak, F.; Thompson, J. (Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR (United States))

    1992-05-01

    This document describes the rationale, procedures, and results of a carefully controlled study conducted to establish whether chronic exposure of female (ewe) Suffolk lambs to the environment of a 500-kV 60-Hz transmission line would affect various characteristics of growth, endocrine function, and reproductive development. This experiment used identical housing and management schemes for control and line-exposed ewes, thus minimizing these factors as contributors to between-group experimental error. Further, throughout the 10-month duration of this study, changes in electric and magnetic fields, audible noise, and weather conditions were monitored continuously by a computerized system. Such measurements provided the opportunity to identify any relationship between environmental factors and biological responses. Because of reports in the literature that electric and magnetic fields alter concentrations of melatonin in laboratory animals, the primary objective of this study was to ascertain whether a similar effect occurs in lambs exposed to a 500-kV a-c line in a natural setting. In addition, onset of puberty, changes in body weight, wool growth, and behavior were monitored. To determine whether the environment of a 500-kV line caused stress in the study animals, serum levels of cortisol were measured. The study was conducted at Bonneville Power Administration's Ostrander Substation near Estacada, Oregon.

  12. Risk-based flood protection planning under climate change and modeling uncertainty: a pre-alpine case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dittes, Beatrice; Kaiser, Maria; Špačková, Olga; Rieger, Wolfgang; Disse, Markus; Straub, Daniel

    2018-05-01

    Planning authorities are faced with a range of questions when planning flood protection measures: is the existing protection adequate for current and future demands or should it be extended? How will flood patterns change in the future? How should the uncertainty pertaining to this influence the planning decision, e.g., for delaying planning or including a safety margin? Is it sufficient to follow a protection criterion (e.g., to protect from the 100-year flood) or should the planning be conducted in a risk-based way? How important is it for flood protection planning to accurately estimate flood frequency (changes), costs and damage? These are questions that we address for a medium-sized pre-alpine catchment in southern Germany, using a sequential Bayesian decision making framework that quantitatively addresses the full spectrum of uncertainty. We evaluate different flood protection systems considered by local agencies in a test study catchment. Despite large uncertainties in damage, cost and climate, the recommendation is robust for the most conservative approach. This demonstrates the feasibility of making robust decisions under large uncertainty. Furthermore, by comparison to a previous study, it highlights the benefits of risk-based planning over the planning of flood protection to a prescribed return period.

  13. Risk-based flood protection planning under climate change and modeling uncertainty: a pre-alpine case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Dittes

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Planning authorities are faced with a range of questions when planning flood protection measures: is the existing protection adequate for current and future demands or should it be extended? How will flood patterns change in the future? How should the uncertainty pertaining to this influence the planning decision, e.g., for delaying planning or including a safety margin? Is it sufficient to follow a protection criterion (e.g., to protect from the 100-year flood or should the planning be conducted in a risk-based way? How important is it for flood protection planning to accurately estimate flood frequency (changes, costs and damage? These are questions that we address for a medium-sized pre-alpine catchment in southern Germany, using a sequential Bayesian decision making framework that quantitatively addresses the full spectrum of uncertainty. We evaluate different flood protection systems considered by local agencies in a test study catchment. Despite large uncertainties in damage, cost and climate, the recommendation is robust for the most conservative approach. This demonstrates the feasibility of making robust decisions under large uncertainty. Furthermore, by comparison to a previous study, it highlights the benefits of risk-based planning over the planning of flood protection to a prescribed return period.

  14. Approaches in highly parameterized inversion—PEST++ Version 3, a Parameter ESTimation and uncertainty analysis software suite optimized for large environmental models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welter, David E.; White, Jeremy T.; Hunt, Randall J.; Doherty, John E.

    2015-09-18

    The PEST++ Version 1 object-oriented parameter estimation code is here extended to Version 3 to incorporate additional algorithms and tools to further improve support for large and complex environmental modeling problems. PEST++ Version 3 includes the Gauss-Marquardt-Levenberg (GML) algorithm for nonlinear parameter estimation, Tikhonov regularization, integrated linear-based uncertainty quantification, options of integrated TCP/IP based parallel run management or external independent run management by use of a Version 2 update of the GENIE Version 1 software code, and utilities for global sensitivity analyses. The Version 3 code design is consistent with PEST++ Version 1 and continues to be designed to lower the barriers of entry for users as well as developers while providing efficient and optimized algorithms capable of accommodating large, highly parameterized inverse problems. As such, this effort continues the original focus of (1) implementing the most popular and powerful features of the PEST software suite in a fashion that is easy for novice or experienced modelers to use and (2) developing a software framework that is easy to extend.

  15. Neural Mechanisms of Updating under Reducible and Irreducible Uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobayashi, Kenji; Hsu, Ming

    2017-07-19

    Adaptive decision making depends on an agent's ability to use environmental signals to reduce uncertainty. However, because of multiple types of uncertainty, agents must take into account not only the extent to which signals violate prior expectations but also whether uncertainty can be reduced in the first place. Here we studied how human brains of both sexes respond to signals under conditions of reducible and irreducible uncertainty. We show behaviorally that subjects' value updating was sensitive to the reducibility of uncertainty, and could be quantitatively characterized by a Bayesian model where agents ignore expectancy violations that do not update beliefs or values. Using fMRI, we found that neural processes underlying belief and value updating were separable from responses to expectancy violation, and that reducibility of uncertainty in value modulated connections from belief-updating regions to value-updating regions. Together, these results provide insights into how agents use knowledge about uncertainty to make better decisions while ignoring mere expectancy violation. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT To make good decisions, a person must observe the environment carefully, and use these observations to reduce uncertainty about consequences of actions. Importantly, uncertainty should not be reduced purely based on how surprising the observations are, particularly because in some cases uncertainty is not reducible. Here we show that the human brain indeed reduces uncertainty adaptively by taking into account the nature of uncertainty and ignoring mere surprise. Behaviorally, we show that human subjects reduce uncertainty in a quasioptimal Bayesian manner. Using fMRI, we characterize brain regions that may be involved in uncertainty reduction, as well as the network they constitute, and dissociate them from brain regions that respond to mere surprise. Copyright © 2017 the authors 0270-6474/17/376972-11$15.00/0.

  16. The Roles of Three Types of Knowledge and Perceived Uncertainty in Explaining Risk Perception, Acceptability, and Self-Protective Response—A Case Study on Endocrine Disrupting Surfactants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hien Ho

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The ubiquitous surfactants nonylphenol (NP and its ethoxylates (NPEOs, which are known as endocrine disrupters, have appeared in the lists of restricted chemical substances, monitoring programs, and environmental quality standards of many countries due to their adverse effects. Recent studies have reported alarming levels of NP, as the final metabolite of NPEOs, in Vietnamese urban waters, whilst response to this issue is negligible. With the aim of addressing how the public perceives and expects to avoid the risk of endocrine disrupting surfactants (EDSs, the study tested the hypothesized roles of specific knowledge, general knowledge, and perceived uncertainty using structural equation modelling. The findings revealed that different types of knowledge played certain roles in explaining risk perception, risk acceptability, and self-protective response, which are distinguished by experience amongst the public. Evidence of the mediating role that perceived uncertainty may play in the decrease of risk perception and the increase of risk unacceptance has been provided. The insights gained from the study may help answer why the public are in favor of taking non-diet-related self-protective measures rather than changing their dietary habits, which illustrates a comparison with the basis of health belief model. The needs for building cognitive capacity amongst the public, particularly pregnant women and young mothers, and risk communication concerning endocrine disrupting contamination linked to reproductive health are highlighted.

  17. Uncertainties in Early-Stage Capital Cost Estimation of Process Design – A Case Study on Biorefinery Design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheali, Peam; Gernaey, Krist V.; Sin, Gürkan

    2015-01-01

    Capital investment, next to the product demand, sales, and production costs, is one of the key metrics commonly used for project evaluation and feasibility assessment. Estimating the investment costs of a new product/process alternative during early-stage design is a challenging task, which is especially relevant in biorefinery research where information about new technologies and experience with new technologies is limited. A systematic methodology for uncertainty analysis of cost data is proposed that employs: (a) bootstrapping as a regression method when cost data are available; and, (b) the Monte Carlo technique as an error propagation method based on expert input when cost data are not available. Four well-known models for early-stage cost estimation are reviewed and analyzed using the methodology. The significance of uncertainties of cost data for early-stage process design is highlighted using the synthesis and design of a biorefinery as a case study. The impact of uncertainties in cost estimation on the identification of optimal processing paths is indeed found to be profound. To tackle this challenge, a comprehensive techno-economic risk analysis framework is presented to enable robust decision-making under uncertainties. One of the results using order-of-magnitude estimates shows that the production of diethyl ether and 1,3-butadiene are the most promising with the lowest economic risks (among the alternatives considered) of 0.24 MM$/a and 4.6 MM$/a, respectively.

  18. Uncertainties in Early-Stage Capital Cost Estimation of Process Design – A Case Study on Biorefinery Design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cheali, Peam; Gernaey, Krist V.; Sin, Gürkan, E-mail: gsi@kt.dtu.dk [Department of Chemical and Biochemical Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby (Denmark)

    2015-02-06

    Capital investment, next to the product demand, sales, and production costs, is one of the key metrics commonly used for project evaluation and feasibility assessment. Estimating the investment costs of a new product/process alternative during early-stage design is a challenging task, which is especially relevant in biorefinery research where information about new technologies and experience with new technologies is limited. A systematic methodology for uncertainty analysis of cost data is proposed that employs: (a) bootstrapping as a regression method when cost data are available; and, (b) the Monte Carlo technique as an error propagation method based on expert input when cost data are not available. Four well-known models for early-stage cost estimation are reviewed and analyzed using the methodology. The significance of uncertainties of cost data for early-stage process design is highlighted using the synthesis and design of a biorefinery as a case study. The impact of uncertainties in cost estimation on the identification of optimal processing paths is indeed found to be profound. To tackle this challenge, a comprehensive techno-economic risk analysis framework is presented to enable robust decision-making under uncertainties. One of the results using order-of-magnitude estimates shows that the production of diethyl ether and 1,3-butadiene are the most promising with the lowest economic risks (among the alternatives considered) of 0.24 MM$/a and 4.6 MM$/a, respectively.

  19. Estimating the uncertainty of the impact of climate change on alluvial aquifers. Case study in central Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romano, Emanuele; Camici, Stefania; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso; Pica, Federico; Preziosi, Elisabetta

    2014-05-01

    There is evidence that the precipitation pattern in Europe is trending towards more humid conditions in the northern region and drier conditions in the southern and central-eastern regions. However, a great deal of uncertainty concerns how the changes in precipitations will have an impact on water resources, particularly on groundwater, and this uncertainty should be evaluated on the basis of that coming from 1) future climate scenarios of Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and 2) modeling chains including the downscaling technique, the infiltration model and the calibration/validation procedure used to develop the groundwater flow model. With the aim of quantifying the uncertainty of these components, the Valle Umbra porous aquifer (Central Italy) has been considered as a case study. This aquifer, that is exploited for human consumption and irrigation, is mainly fed by the effective infiltration from the ground surface and partly by the inflow from the carbonate aquifers bordering the valley. A numerical groundwater flow model has been developed through the finite difference MODFLOW2005 code and it has been calibrated and validated considering the recharge regime computed through a Thornthwaite-Mather infiltration model under the climate conditions observed in the period 1956-2012. Future scenarios (2010-2070) of temperature and precipitation have been obtained from three different GMCs: ECHAM-5 (Max Planck Institute, Germany), PCM (National Centre Atmospheric Research) and CCSM3 (National Centre Atmospheric Research). Each scenario has been downscaled (DSC) to the data of temperature and precipitation collected in the baseline period 1960-1990 at the stations located in the study area through two different statistical techniques (linear rescaling and quantile mapping). Then, stochastic rainfall and temperature time series are generated through the Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulses model (NSRP) for precipitation and the Fractionally Differenced ARIMA model (FARIMA

  20. Handling uncertainty in bioenergy policy design – A case study analysis of UK and German bioelectricity policy instruments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Purkus, Alexandra; Röder, Mirjam; Gawel, Erik; Thrän, Daniela; Thornley, Patricia

    2015-01-01

    In designing policies to promote bioenergy, policy makers face challenges concerning uncertainties about the sustainability of bioenergy pathways (including greenhouse gas balances), technology and resource costs, or future energy market framework conditions. New information becomes available with time, but policy adjustments can involve high levels of adaptation costs. To enable an effective steering of technology choices and innovation, policies have to strike a balance between creating a consistent institutional framework, which establishes planning security for investors, and sufficient flexibility to adapt to new information. This paper examines implications of economic theory for handling cost and benefit uncertainty in bioelectricity policy design, focussing on choices between price and quantity instruments, technology differentiation, and policy adjustment. Findings are applied to two case studies, the UK's Renewables Obligation and the German feed-in tariff/feed-in premium scheme. Case study results show the trade-offs that are involved in instrument choice and design – depending on political priorities and a country's specific context, different options can prove more adequate. Combining market-based remuneration with sustainability criteria results in strong incentives for bioenergy producers to search for low-cost solutions; whereas cost-based price instruments with centrally steered technology and feedstock choices offer higher planning security for investors and more direct control for policy makers over what pathways are implemented. Independent of the choice of instrument type and technology differentiation mechanism, findings emphasise the importance of a careful policy design, which determines the exact balance between performance criteria such as cost control, incentive intensity, planning security and adaptive efficiency. - Highlights: • Bioelectricity policy design must deal with simultaneous cost and benefit uncertainty.

  1. Uncertainties associated to the representation of surface processes in impact studies. A study in the Mediterranean area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quéguiner, Solen; Martin, Eric; Lafont, Sébastien; Calvet, Jean-Christophe; Faroux, Stéphanie

    2010-05-01

    In the framework of the assessment of the impact of climate change, the uncertainty associated to the direct effect of CO2 on plant physiology was seldom addressed, while some other sources of uncertainties have been more studied, such as those related to climate modeling or the downscaling method. A few studies are available at global or continental scale. The purpose of this study is to quantify this effect in a regional study focussed on the Mediterranean area of France. The Safran-Isba-Modcou chain was used. This chain is composed of a meteorological analysis system (SAFRAN), a land surface model describing the exchange with the atmosphere (ISBA) and a hydrogeological model (MODCOU), and has already been used in many studies in France. The present study focuses on the uncertainties related to the representation of carbon cycle and the photosynthesis in the surface model. Two versions of ISBA were used and compared. The standard version simulates the mass and energy exchanges between the continental surface (including vegetation and snow) and the atmosphere. In this version, the LAI (Leaf Area Index) is provided by the ECOCLIMAP2 database and the vegetation is divided into 12 types. The A-gs version accounts for the process of photosynthesis taking into account the vegetation assimilation of atmospheric CO2 concentration, and simulates the evolution of the biomass and the LAI. The domain studied is the French mediterranean basin, in which a sub domain was defined (latitude < 45 °N et height < 1000m) in order to identify the low land area pertaining to a Mediterranean climate. The study focuses on the impact of the climate change on the surface variables (LAI, water balance) and the discharges. The periods chosen to compare the changes are the end of the 20th century (1995-2005) and the end of the 21st century (2090-2099). A first comparison is made for the present climate between the versions of model and the observations of discharges, using two type of

  2. Study of Monte Carlo approach to experimental uncertainty propagation with MSTW 2008 PDFs

    CERN Document Server

    Watt, G.

    2012-01-01

    We investigate the Monte Carlo approach to propagation of experimental uncertainties within the context of the established 'MSTW 2008' global analysis of parton distribution functions (PDFs) of the proton at next-to-leading order in the strong coupling. We show that the Monte Carlo approach using replicas of the original data gives PDF uncertainties in good agreement with the usual Hessian approach using the standard Delta(chi^2) = 1 criterion, then we explore potential parameterisation bias by increasing the number of free parameters, concluding that any parameterisation bias is likely to be small, with the exception of the valence-quark distributions at low momentum fractions x. We motivate the need for a larger tolerance, Delta(chi^2) > 1, by making fits to restricted data sets and idealised consistent or inconsistent pseudodata. Instead of using data replicas, we alternatively produce PDF sets randomly distributed according to the covariance matrix of fit parameters including appropriate tolerance values,...

  3. Calculation of uncertainties associated to environmental radioactivity measurements and their functions. Practical Procedure; Calculo de la incertidumbre asociada al recuento en medidas de radiactividad ambiental y funciones basadas en ella. Procedimiento practico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gasco Leonarte, C; Anton Mateos, M. P.

    1995-07-01

    This report summarizes the procedure used to calculate the uncertainties associated to environmental radioactivity measurements, focusing on those obtained by radiochemical separation in which tracers have been added. Uncertainties linked to activity concentration calculations, isotopic rat iso, inventories, sequential leaching data, chronology dating by using C.R.S. model and duplicate analysis are described in detail. The objective of this article is to serve as a guide to people not familiarized with this kind of calculations, showing clear practical examples. The input of the formulas and all the data needed to achieve these calculations into the Lotus 1, 2, 3 WTN is outlined as well. (Author) 13 refs.

  4. Host model uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing estimates: results from the AeroCom Prescribed intercomparison study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Stier

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Simulated multi-model "diversity" in aerosol direct radiative forcing estimates is often perceived as a measure of aerosol uncertainty. However, current models used for aerosol radiative forcing calculations vary considerably in model components relevant for forcing calculations and the associated "host-model uncertainties" are generally convoluted with the actual aerosol uncertainty. In this AeroCom Prescribed intercomparison study we systematically isolate and quantify host model uncertainties on aerosol forcing experiments through prescription of identical aerosol radiative properties in twelve participating models. Even with prescribed aerosol radiative properties, simulated clear-sky and all-sky aerosol radiative forcings show significant diversity. For a purely scattering case with globally constant optical depth of 0.2, the global-mean all-sky top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing is −4.47 Wm−2 and the inter-model standard deviation is 0.55 Wm−2, corresponding to a relative standard deviation of 12%. For a case with partially absorbing aerosol with an aerosol optical depth of 0.2 and single scattering albedo of 0.8, the forcing changes to 1.04 Wm−2, and the standard deviation increases to 1.01 W−2, corresponding to a significant relative standard deviation of 97%. However, the top-of-atmosphere forcing variability owing to absorption (subtracting the scattering case from the case with scattering and absorption is low, with absolute (relative standard deviations of 0.45 Wm−2 (8% clear-sky and 0.62 Wm−2 (11% all-sky. Scaling the forcing standard deviation for a purely scattering case to match the sulfate radiative forcing in the AeroCom Direct Effect experiment demonstrates that host model uncertainties could explain about 36% of the overall sulfate forcing diversity of 0.11 Wm−2 in the AeroCom Direct Radiative Effect experiment. Host model errors in aerosol radiative forcing are largest in regions of uncertain host model

  5. A simulation study of organizational decision making under conditions of uncertainty and ambiguity .

    OpenAIRE

    Athens, Arthur J.

    1983-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution in unlimited. The usual frameworks applied to the analysis of military decision making describe the decision process according to the rational model. The assumptions inherent in this model. however, are not consistent with the reality of warfare's inherent uncertainty and complexity. A better model is needed to address the ambiguilty actually confronting the combat commander. The garbage can model of organizational choice, a nonrational approach to...

  6. A phantom-based study for assessing the error and uncertainty of a neuronavigation system

    OpenAIRE

    Natalia Izquierdo-Cifuentes; Genaro Daza-Santacoloma; Walter Serna-Serna

    2017-01-01

    This document describes a calibration protocol with the intention to introduce a guide to standardize the metrological vocabulary among manufacturers of image-guided surgery systems. Two stages were developed to measure the errors and estimate the uncertainty of a neuronavigator in different situations, on the first one it was determined a mechanical error on a virtual model of an acrylic phantom, on the second it was determined a coordinate error on the computerized axial tomography scan of ...

  7. Study on the subject system of environmental radiochemistry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qiang Yi zhong

    1992-11-01

    The environmental radiochemistry is a new frontier discipline. So, it is very important to study the system of this subject. A brief introduction of its development background and history are presented. The definition of the environmental radiochemistry has been studied. Main contents containing in the subject have been classified and reviewed in accordance with different modalities. Five major features of the environmental radiochemistry are suggested. Issues to be considered recently in the environmental radiochemistry are also discussed

  8. A Study on improvement of environmental assessment system in social, economic, and environmental sectors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nam, Young Sook; Koo, Doh Wan; Keum, Kee Yong [Korea Environment Institute, Seoul (Korea)

    1998-12-01

    The environmental assessment system is assessed as a mechanism that can achieve the goal for environmental policy in 21st century. As it can evaluate social and economic feasibility of large-scale development program, this system can achieve a sustainable society by mitigating social conflicts arising from environmental problems. For making the environmental assessment system substantial, this study was implemented by the need of improvement of the system, by analyzing problems of social, economic, and environmental evaluation, which is implemented under the present system. 44 refs., 1 fig., 25 tabs.

  9. A study on the assessment of safety culture impacts on risk of nuclear power plants using common uncertainty source model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Yong Suk; Bang, Young Suk; Chung, Chang Hyun; Jeong, Ji Hwan

    2004-01-01

    Since International Safety Advisory Group (INSAG) introduced term 'safety culture', it has been widely recognized that safety culture has an important role in safety of nuclear power plants. Research on the safety culture can be divided in the following two parts. 1) Assessment of safety culture (by interview, questionnaire, etc.) 2) Assessment of link between safety culture and safety of nuclear power plants. There is a substantial body of literature that addresses the first part, but there is much less work that addresses the second part. To address the second part, most work focused on the development of model incorporating safety culture into Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA). One of the most advanced methodology in the area of incorporating safety culture quantitatively into PSA is System Dynamics (SD) model developed by Kwak et al. It can show interactions among various factors which affect employees' productivity and job quality. Also various situations in nuclear power plant can be simulated and time-dependent risk can be recalculated with this model. But this model does not consider minimal cut set (MCS) dependency and uncertainty of risk. Another well-known methodology is Work Process Analysis Model (WPAM) developed by Davoudian. It considers MCS dependency by modifying conditional probability values using SLI methodology. But we found that the modified conditional probability values in WPAM are somewhat artificial and have no sound basis. WPAM tend to overestimate conditional probability of hardware failure, because it uses SLI methodology which is normally used in Human Reliability Analysis (HRA). WPAM also does not consider uncertainty of risk. In this study, we proposed methodology to incorporate safety culture into PSA quantitatively that can deal with MCS dependency and uncertainty of risk by applying the Common Uncertainty Source (CUS) model developed by Zhang. CUS is uncertainty source that is common to basic events, and this can be physical

  10. Overlapping carbon pricing and renewable support schemes under political uncertainty: Global lessons from an Australian case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shahnazari, Mahdi; McHugh, Adam; Maybee, Bryan; Whale, Jonathan

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: •Uncertainty over overlapping energy and climate policies affects investment choices. •An integrated real options and portfolio optimisation model is used in a case study. •Interacting carbon pricing and renewable supports can create private and social hedge. •Political uncertainty may justify overlapping carbon pricing and renewable supports. -- Abstract: The translation of a greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction policy objective to the required investment in low emissions technologies may be hindered by political contest over the policy instruments employed to achieve it. Political contest may also result in enactment of overlapping policy instruments which, from a ‘policy purist’ perspective, may not appear well calibrated to a shared GHG emissions reduction objective. This paper reports insights gained from an integrated real options and portfolio optimisation model of electricity generation investment behaviour under political uncertainty over the futures of interacting carbon pricing and renewable portfolio standard (RPS) instruments. We compare modelling results and actual outcomes in Australia, where an emission reduction target has had bipartisan support but the means to achieve it has not, to test the assertion that overlapping policy instruments must always increase the social costs of GHG abatement. Results suggest that overlapping a politically contested carbon pricing policy with an RPS may result in a lower risk, renewable energy (RE) investment environment, as the overlap allows investors to hedge their portfolio against political uncertainty through RE additions. Consequently, GHG abatement objectives may be achieved at lower cost than would be the case without the policy interaction. The policies overlap can provide a ‘safety valve’ or ‘hedge’ to both private investors and policymakers when deep uncertainties over the future of energy and climate policies influence investment strategies.

  11. Uncertainty in Impact Assessment – EIA in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen

    as problematic, as this is important information for decision makers and public actors. Taking point of departure in these issues, this paper seeks to add to the discussions by presenting the results of a study on the handling of uncertainty in Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) reports in Denmark. The study...... is based on analysis of 100 EIA reports. The results will shed light on the extent to which uncertainties is addressed in EIA in Denmark and discuss how the practice can be categorised....

  12. Teaching Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duerdoth, Ian

    2009-01-01

    The subject of uncertainties (sometimes called errors) is traditionally taught (to first-year science undergraduates) towards the end of a course on statistics that defines probability as the limit of many trials, and discusses probability distribution functions and the Gaussian distribution. We show how to introduce students to the concepts of…

  13. Calibration uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heydorn, Kaj; Anglov, Thomas

    2002-01-01

    Methods recommended by the International Standardization Organisation and Eurachem are not satisfactory for the correct estimation of calibration uncertainty. A novel approach is introduced and tested on actual calibration data for the determination of Pb by ICP-AES. The improved calibration...

  14. Environmental studies using earth orbital photography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wobber, F J

    1969-01-01

    Orbital remote sensing, and particularly orbital photography, can provide immediately useful data for scientists familiar with applying aerial photographic techniques to environmental problems. Despite the expansion of analytical techniques in the earth sciences, the environmental data base has remained relatively static compared with increased information needs because of the difficulty of effective worldwide surveys and the high cost of timely data collection. Color, color infrared and black and white space photographs obtained incident to the Gemini and Apollo programs provide unique synoptic tools for analyzing modern environments and processes, and data that cannot be duplicated by aerial photographic mosaics. Principal advantages of orbital surveys include repetitious worldwide coverage promising environmental synthesis within the full spectrum of seasonal contrasts, and synoptic observations on a scale generally impossible from aircraft. The general categories of environmental data that can be extracted from orbital photography are summarized. 26 references, 37 figures, 3 tables.

  15. Comparative study of environmental impact assessment methods ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    STORAGESEVER

    2009-07-20

    Jul 20, 2009 ... 3Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Ahvaz University of Medical Sciences, Ahvaz, Iran. .... lines in a virtual place aiming at goals opportunity. .... available to show the reality of quantitative model.

  16. Quantification of structural uncertainties in multi-scale models; case study of the Lublin Basin, Poland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Małolepszy, Zbigniew; Szynkaruk, Ewa

    2015-04-01

    The multiscale static modeling of regional structure of the Lublin Basin is carried on in the Polish Geological Institute, in accordance with principles of integrated 3D geological modelling. The model is based on all available geospatial data from Polish digital databases and analogue archives. Mapped regional structure covers the area of 260x80 km located between Warsaw and Polish-Ukrainian border, along NW-SE-trending margin of the East European Craton. Within the basin, the Paleozoic beds with coalbearing Carboniferous and older formations containing hydrocarbons and unconventional prospects are covered unconformably by Permo-Mesozoic and younger rocks. Vertical extent of the regional model is set from topographic surface to 6000 m ssl and at the bottom includes some Proterozoic crystalline formations of the craton. The project focuses on internal consistency of the models built at different scales - from basin (small) scale to field-scale (large-scale). The models, nested in the common structural framework, are being constructed with regional geological knowledge, ensuring smooth transition in the 3D model resolution and amount of geological detail. Major challenge of the multiscale approach to subsurface modelling is the assessment and consistent quantification of various types of geological uncertainties tied to those various scale sub-models. Decreasing amount of information with depth and, particularly, very limited data collected below exploration targets, as well as accuracy and quality of data, all have the most critical impact on the modelled structure. In deeper levels of the Lublin Basin model, seismic interpretation of 2D surveys is sparsely tied to well data. Therefore time-to-depth conversion carries one of the major uncertainties in the modeling of structures, especially below 3000 m ssl. Furthermore, as all models at different scales are based on the same dataset, we must deal with different levels of generalization of geological structures. The

  17. Random vibration sensitivity studies of modeling uncertainties in the NIF structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swensen, E.A.; Farrar, C.R.; Barron, A.A.; Cornwell, P.

    1996-01-01

    The National Ignition Facility is a laser fusion project that will provide an above-ground experimental capability for nuclear weapons effects simulation. This facility will achieve fusion ignition utilizing solid-state lasers as the energy driver. The facility will cover an estimated 33,400 m 2 at an average height of 5--6 stories. Within this complex, a number of beam transport structures will be houses that will deliver the laser beams to the target area within a 50 microm ms radius of the target center. The beam transport structures are approximately 23 m long and reach approximately heights of 2--3 stories. Low-level ambient random vibrations are one of the primary concerns currently controlling the design of these structures. Low level ambient vibrations, 10 -10 g 2 /Hz over a frequency range of 1 to 200 Hz, are assumed to be present during all facility operations. Each structure described in this paper will be required to achieve and maintain 0.6 microrad ms laser beam pointing stability for a minimum of 2 hours under these vibration levels. To date, finite element (FE) analysis has been performed on a number of the beam transport structures. Certain assumptions have to be made regarding structural uncertainties in the FE models. These uncertainties consist of damping values for concrete and steel, compliance within bolted and welded joints, and assumptions regarding the phase coherence of ground motion components. In this paper, the influence of these structural uncertainties on the predicted pointing stability of the beam line transport structures as determined by random vibration analysis will be discussed

  18. Accounting for age uncertainty in growth modeling, the case study of yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares of the Indian Ocean.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emmanuelle Dortel

    Full Text Available Age estimates, typically determined by counting periodic growth increments in calcified structures of vertebrates, are the basis of population dynamics models used for managing exploited or threatened species. In fisheries research, the use of otolith growth rings as an indicator of fish age has increased considerably in recent decades. However, otolith readings include various sources of uncertainty. Current ageing methods, which converts an average count of rings into age, only provide periodic age estimates in which the range of uncertainty is fully ignored. In this study, we describe a hierarchical model for estimating individual ages from repeated otolith readings. The model was developed within a Bayesian framework to explicitly represent the sources of uncertainty associated with age estimation, to allow for individual variations and to include knowledge on parameters from expertise. The performance of the proposed model was examined through simulations, and then it was coupled to a two-stanza somatic growth model to evaluate the impact of the age estimation method on the age composition of commercial fisheries catches. We illustrate our approach using the sagittal otoliths of yellowfin tuna of the Indian Ocean collected through large-scale mark-recapture experiments. The simulation performance suggested that the ageing error model was able to estimate the ageing biases and provide accurate age estimates, regardless of the age of the fish. Coupled with the growth model, this approach appeared suitable for modeling the growth of Indian Ocean yellowfin and is consistent with findings of previous studies. The simulations showed that the choice of the ageing method can strongly affect growth estimates with subsequent implications for age-structured data used as inputs for population models. Finally, our modeling approach revealed particularly useful to reflect uncertainty around age estimates into the process of growth estimation and it can

  19. How risk and uncertainty is used in Supply Chain Management: a literature study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bøge Sørensen, Lars

    2004-01-01

    Keywords Supply Chain Management, Risk Management, Supply Chain Risk ManagementAbstract To comply with Supply Chain Management dogma companies have cut their inventoriesto a minimum, lead times have been shortened, new suppliers have been chosen and the customerportfolio has been reduced. All...... of these activities impose a great deal of risk on the firms,jeopardizing the survival of entire supply chains. In this article the author intends to investigateand document the use and meaning of Risk and Uncertainty within journals publishing material onSupply Chain Management and Logistics. Subsequently...... suggestions for further research areproposed - the integration of Risk Management into the discipline of Supply Chain Design....

  20. Environmental Studies and Environmental Science at GCE '0' and 'A' Level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gayford, Christopher G.

    1983-01-01

    Reports on environmental studies/science at General Certificate of Examination (GCE) ordinary ("0") and advanced ("A") levels. Questionnaires were used to survey teachers (focusing on their professional training and why they teach environmental studies/science courses) and to determine the relationship between environmental…

  1. Environmental impact study. 'Cyclical approach case study VEGA'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Setzman, E.; Braennstroem-Norberg, B.M.; Rosen-Lidholm, S.

    1993-06-01

    The aim of this study has been to identify, describe and assess the environmental factors in the fuel chain which may be of significance for the possibilities of establishing biofuel-fired plants for the production of electricity and heat. The description is based on the documentation for the planned combined heat and power plant in Eskilstuna which will utilize pressurized gasification of biofuel in a combined cycle (VEGA). The study shows that the emissions from the plant are limited and do not give rise to any identifiable environmental effects. The emissions of nitrogen oxides from transportation and from fuel production are equivalent to those from combustion. The environmental consequences of a biofuel-fired plant of this size will be primarily local. The regional effects will be limited and of little significance providing that fuel extraction is not carried out in sensitive areas, transportation by road over long distances is minimized, and the removal of important nutrients through the extraction of biofuels is compensated for, for example by returning ash to the soil. 26 refs, 29 figs, 38 tabs

  2. Demand Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nguyen, Daniel Xuyen

    This paper presents a model of trade that explains why firms wait to export and why many exporters fail. Firms face uncertain demands that are only realized after the firm enters the destination. The model retools the timing of uncertainty resolution found in productivity heterogeneity models....... This retooling addresses several shortcomings. First, the imperfect correlation of demands reconciles the sales variation observed in and across destinations. Second, since demands for the firm's output are correlated across destinations, a firm can use previously realized demands to forecast unknown demands...... in untested destinations. The option to forecast demands causes firms to delay exporting in order to gather more information about foreign demand. Third, since uncertainty is resolved after entry, many firms enter a destination and then exit after learning that they cannot profit. This prediction reconciles...

  3. Uncertainty Propagation in OMFIT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Sterling; Meneghini, Orso; Sung, Choongki

    2017-10-01

    A rigorous comparison of power balance fluxes and turbulent model fluxes requires the propagation of uncertainties in the kinetic profiles and their derivatives. Making extensive use of the python uncertainties package, the OMFIT framework has been used to propagate covariant uncertainties to provide an uncertainty in the power balance calculation from the ONETWO code, as well as through the turbulent fluxes calculated by the TGLF code. The covariant uncertainties arise from fitting 1D (constant on flux surface) density and temperature profiles and associated random errors with parameterized functions such as a modified tanh. The power balance and model fluxes can then be compared with quantification of the uncertainties. No effort is made at propagating systematic errors. A case study will be shown for the effects of resonant magnetic perturbations on the kinetic profiles and fluxes at the top of the pedestal. A separate attempt at modeling the random errors with Monte Carlo sampling will be compared to the method of propagating the fitting function parameter covariant uncertainties. Work supported by US DOE under DE-FC02-04ER54698, DE-FG2-95ER-54309, DE-SC 0012656.

  4. Tritium environmental transport studies at TFTR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ritter, P.D.; Dolan, T.J.; Longhurst, G.R.

    1993-01-01

    Environmental tritium concentrations will be measured near the Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor (TFTR) to help validate dynamic models of tritium transport in the environment. For model validation the database must contain sequential measurements of tritium concentrations in key environmental compartments. Since complete containment of tritium is an operational goal, the supplementary monitoring program should be able to glean useful data from an unscheduled acute release. Portable air samplers will be used to take samples automatically every 4 hours for a weak after an acute release, thus obtaining the time resolution needed for code validation. Samples of soil, vegetation, and foodstuffs will be gathered daily at the same locations as the active air monitors. The database may help validate the plant/soil/air part of tritium transport models and enhance environmental tritium transport understanding for the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER)

  5. Tritium environmental transport studies at TFTR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ritter, P. D.; Dolan, T. J.; Longhurst, G. R.

    1993-06-01

    Environmental tritium concentrations will be measured near the Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor (TFTR) to help validate dynamic models of tritium transport in the environment. For model validation the database must contain sequential measurements of tritium concentrations in key environmental compartments. Since complete containment of tritium is an operational goal, the supplementary monitoring program should be able to glean useful data from an unscheduled acute release. Portable air samplers will be used to take samples automatically every 4 hours for a week after an acute release, thus obtaining the time resolution needed for code validation. Samples of soil, vegetation, and foodstuffs will be gathered daily at the same locations as the active air monitors. The database may help validate the plant/soil/air part of tritium transport models and enhance environmental tritium transport understanding for the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER).

  6. Environmental management in Slovenian industrial enterprises - Empirical study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vesna Čančer

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available timulated with the firm belief that environmental management helps enterprises to achieve business success, expressed by a majority of managers in the sample enterprises, we present the results of an empirical study in the Slovene processing industry. The purpose of our research work is to identify, analyse and present the importance of the environment in business decision-making, the role of environmental management in strategic decision-making and its distribution across the business functions; environmental performance in business processes; the use of the methods for environmentally oriented business decision-making and the developmental tendencies of environmental management in Slovene enterprises of the processing industry. We define the key drivers of environmental management and their effect on the environmental behaviour of these enterprises. We present and interpret data indicating that environmental management is caused not only by compliance and regulation, but also by competition and enterprises’ own initiative.

  7. Commissioning of the double Penning trap system MLLTRAP and first studies on mass-dependent systematic uncertainties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krug, Kevin; Weber, Christine; Thirolf, Peter G.; Szerypo, Jerzy; Gartzke, Eva; Habs, Dietrich [Fakultaet fuer Physik, LMU Muenchen (Germany); Kolhinen, Veli [Fakultaet fuer Physik, LMU Muenchen (Germany); Department of Physics, University of Jyvaeskylae (Finland)

    2010-07-01

    The cylindrical double Penning trap system MLLTRAP in its commissioning phase at the Maier-Leibnitz-Laboratory (MLL) Tandem accelerator in Garching is designed to perform high-accuracy mass measurements on fusion-reaction products. As the mass uncertainty is inversely proportional to the ionic charge state, the ions of interest will be charge bred prior to injection into the Penning trap system. In the future setup, both traps are foreseen to be operated as measurement traps with a relative homogeneity of the magnetic field at the trapping sites of {delta}B/B{<=}0.3 ppm. In the commissioning phase, an offline surface ionization source is used for iterative optimization of the apparatus and studies on mass-dependent systematic uncertainties. Mass measurements via the time-of-flight ion cyclotron resonance method (TOF-ICR) of reference ions with well-known masses ({sup 85}Rb, {sup 87}Rb, {sup 39}K, {sup 133}Cs) were carried out to analyze mass-dependent systematic effects. Together with previous studies on the uncertainty due to magnetic-field fluctuations the current status with respect to the limits of mass accuracy of the apparatus is presented.

  8. Optimization of internal contamination monitoring programmes by studying uncertainties linked to dosimetric assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davesne, Estelle

    2010-01-01

    To optimise the protection of workers against ionizing radiations, the International Commission on Radiological Protection recommends the use of dose constraint and limits. To verify the compliance of the means of protection with these values when a risk of internal contamination exists, monitoring programmes formed of periodic bioassay measurements are performed. However, uncertainty in the dose evaluation arises from the variability of the activity measurement and from the incomplete knowledge of the exposure conditions. This uncertainty was taken into account by means of classical, Bayesian and possibilist statistics. The developed methodology was applied to the evaluation of the potential exposure during nuclear fuel preparation or mining; and to the analysis of the monitoring programme of workers purifying plutonium in AREVA NC La Hague reprocessing plant. From the measurement decision threshold, the minimum dose detectable (MDD) by the programme with a given confidence level can be calculated through the software OPSCI. It is shown to be a useful support in the optimisation of monitoring programmes when seeking a compromise between their sensitivity and their costs. (author)

  9. Sensitivity of Emissions to Uncertainties in Residual Gas Fraction Measurements in Automotive Engines: A Numerical Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. M. Aithal

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Initial conditions of the working fluid (air-fuel mixture within an engine cylinder, namely, mixture composition and temperature, greatly affect the combustion characteristics and emissions of an engine. In particular, the percentage of residual gas fraction (RGF in the engine cylinder can significantly alter the temperature and composition of the working fluid as compared with the air-fuel mixture inducted into the engine, thus affecting engine-out emissions. Accurate measurement of the RGF is cumbersome and expensive, thus making it hard to accurately characterize the initial mixture composition and temperature in any given engine cycle. This uncertainty can lead to challenges in accurately interpreting experimental emissions data and in implementing real-time control strategies. Quantifying the effects of the RGF can have important implications for the diagnostics and control of internal combustion engines. This paper reports on the use of a well-validated, two-zone quasi-dimensional model to compute the engine-out NO and CO emission in a gasoline engine. The effect of varying the RGF on the emissions under lean, near-stoichiometric, and rich engine conditions was investigated. Numerical results show that small uncertainties (~2–4% in the measured/computed values of the RGF can significantly affect the engine-out NO/CO emissions.

  10. A Study on Environmental Education Films.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerba, Diana

    The degree of communication between the film industry and educators and its effect on the future directions of environmental education films are the focus of this report. Separate surveys were mailed to 100 film industry producers and distributors and 150 elementary and secondary educators in Maine, Kansas, Pennsylvania, California, and Alabama.…

  11. Methods for environmental change; an exploratory study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nell Gottlieb; Robert Panne; Chris Smerecnik; Gerjo Kok

    2012-01-01

    Background: While the interest of health promotion researchers in change methods directed at the target population has a long tradition, interest in change methods directed at the environment is still developing. In this survey, the focus is on methods for environmental change; especially about how

  12. Environmental Health Ethics in Study of Children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, L. E.; Hansen, P. W.; Pedersen, M.

    2017-01-01

    Children are not small adults in relation to exposure and vulnerability. Rapid growth, development, and anatomical and physiological changes in various organs and organ systems differentiate children from adults in relation to exposure and vulnerability to environmental exposures. The unborn chil...

  13. An Environmental Unit for the Social Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroll, Claudia J.

    Based on the inquiry method of learning, this instructional unit attempts to encourage students to discover for themselves the facts, problems, values, conflicts, and potential solutions of an environmental issue. Specifically, it deals with surface mining in the United States, with special focus on surface mining in Illinois. Materials and…

  14. Nickel oxide reduction studied by environmental TEM

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeangros, Q.; Hansen, Thomas Willum; Wagner, Jakob Birkedal

    2012-01-01

    In situ reduction of an industrial NiO powder is performed under 1.3 mbar of H2 (2 mlN/min) in a differentially pumped FEI Titan 80-300 environmental transmission electron microscope (ETEM). Images, diffraction patterns and electron energy loss spectra (EELS) are acquired to monitor the structura...

  15. Methods for environmental change; an exploratory study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kok, Gerjo; Gottlieb, Nell H; Panne, Robert; Smerecnik, Chris

    2012-11-28

    While the interest of health promotion researchers in change methods directed at the target population has a long tradition, interest in change methods directed at the environment is still developing. In this survey, the focus is on methods for environmental change; especially about how these are composed of methods for individual change ('Bundling') and how within one environmental level, organizations, methods differ when directed at the management ('At') or applied by the management ('From'). The first part of this online survey dealt with examining the 'bundling' of individual level methods to methods at the environmental level. The question asked was to what extent the use of an environmental level method would involve the use of certain individual level methods. In the second part of the survey the question was whether there are differences between applying methods directed 'at' an organization (for instance, by a health promoter) versus 'from' within an organization itself. All of the 20 respondents are experts in the field of health promotion. Methods at the individual level are frequently bundled together as part of a method at a higher ecological level. A number of individual level methods are popular as part of most of the environmental level methods, while others are not chosen very often. Interventions directed at environmental agents often have a strong focus on the motivational part of behavior change.There are different approaches targeting a level or being targeted from a level. The health promoter will use combinations of motivation and facilitation. The manager will use individual level change methods focusing on self-efficacy and skills. Respondents think that any method may be used under the right circumstances, although few endorsed coercive methods. Taxonomies of theoretical change methods for environmental change should include combinations of individual level methods that may be bundled and separate suggestions for methods targeting a level

  16. Methods for environmental change; an exploratory study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kok Gerjo

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background While the interest of health promotion researchers in change methods directed at the target population has a long tradition, interest in change methods directed at the environment is still developing. In this survey, the focus is on methods for environmental change; especially about how these are composed of methods for individual change (‘Bundling’ and how within one environmental level, organizations, methods differ when directed at the management (‘At’ or applied by the management (‘From’. Methods The first part of this online survey dealt with examining the ‘bundling’ of individual level methods to methods at the environmental level. The question asked was to what extent the use of an environmental level method would involve the use of certain individual level methods. In the second part of the survey the question was whether there are differences between applying methods directed ‘at’ an organization (for instance, by a health promoter versus ‘from’ within an organization itself. All of the 20 respondents are experts in the field of health promotion. Results Methods at the individual level are frequently bundled together as part of a method at a higher ecological level. A number of individual level methods are popular as part of most of the environmental level methods, while others are not chosen very often. Interventions directed at environmental agents often have a strong focus on the motivational part of behavior change. There are different approaches targeting a level or being targeted from a level. The health promoter will use combinations of motivation and facilitation. The manager will use individual level change methods focusing on self-efficacy and skills. Respondents think that any method may be used under the right circumstances, although few endorsed coercive methods. Conclusions Taxonomies of theoretical change methods for environmental change should include combinations of individual

  17. Mechanics and uncertainty

    CERN Document Server

    Lemaire, Maurice

    2014-01-01

    Science is a quest for certainty, but lack of certainty is the driving force behind all of its endeavors. This book, specifically, examines the uncertainty of technological and industrial science. Uncertainty and Mechanics studies the concepts of mechanical design in an uncertain setting and explains engineering techniques for inventing cost-effective products. Though it references practical applications, this is a book about ideas and potential advances in mechanical science.

  18. Uncertainty: lotteries and risk

    OpenAIRE

    Ávalos, Eloy

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we develop the theory of uncertainty in a context where the risks assumed by the individual are measurable and manageable. We primarily use the definition of lottery to formulate the axioms of the individual's preferences, and its representation through the utility function von Neumann - Morgenstern. We study the expected utility theorem and its properties, the paradoxes of choice under uncertainty and finally the measures of risk aversion with monetary lotteries.

  19. Climate change adaptation under uncertainty in the developing world: A case study of sea level rise in Kiribati

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donner, S. D.; Webber, S.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change is expected to have the greatest impact in parts of the developing world. At the 2010 meeting of U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change in Cancun, industrialized countries agreed in principle to provide US$100 billion per year by 2020 to assist the developing world respond to climate change. This "Green Climate Fund" is a critical step towards addressing the challenge of climate change. However, the policy and discourse on supporting adaptation in the developing world remains highly idealized. For example, the efficacy of "no regrets" adaptation efforts or "mainstreaming" adaptation into decision-making are rarely evaluated in the real world. In this presentation, I will discuss the gap between adaptation theory and practice using a multi-year case study of the cultural, social and scientific obstacles to adapting to sea level rise in the Pacific atoll nation of Kiribati. Our field research reveals how scientific and institutional uncertainty can limit international efforts to fund adaptation and lead to spiraling costs. Scientific uncertainty about hyper-local impacts of sea level rise, though irreducible, can at times limit decision-making about adaptation measures, contrary to the notion that "good" decision-making practices can incorporate scientific uncertainty. Efforts to improve institutional capacity must be done carefully, or they risk inadvertently slowing the implementation of adaptation measures and increasing the likelihood of "mal"-adaptation.

  20. Joint USNRC/EC consequence uncertainty study: The ingestion pathway, dosimetry and health effects expert judgment elicitations and results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harper, F.; Goossens, L.; Abbott, M.

    1996-01-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) and the European Commission (EC) have conducted a formal expert judgment elicitation jointly to systematically collect the quantitative information needed to perform consequence uncertainty analyses on a broad set of commercial nuclear power plants. Information from three sets of joint US/European expert panels was collected and processed. Information from the three sets of panels was collected in the following areas: in the phenomenological areas of atmospheric dispersion and deposition, in the areas of ingestion pathways and external dosimetry, and in the areas of health effects and internal dosimetry. This exercise has demonstrated that the uncertainty for particular issues as measured by the ratio of the 95th percentile to the 5th percentile can be extremely large (orders of magnitude), or rather small (factor of two). This information has already been used by many of the experts that were involved in this process in areas other than the consequence uncertainty field. The benefit to the field of radiological consequences is just beginning as the results of this study are published and made available to the consequence community

  1. Using a Software Tool in Forecasting: a Case Study of Sales Forecasting Taking into Account Data Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fabianová, Jana; Kačmáry, Peter; Molnár, Vieroslav; Michalik, Peter

    2016-10-01

    Forecasting is one of the logistics activities and a sales forecast is the starting point for the elaboration of business plans. Forecast accuracy affects the business outcomes and ultimately may significantly affect the economic stability of the company. The accuracy of the prediction depends on the suitability of the use of forecasting methods, experience, quality of input data, time period and other factors. The input data are usually not deterministic but they are often of random nature. They are affected by uncertainties of the market environment, and many other factors. Taking into account the input data uncertainty, the forecast error can by reduced. This article deals with the use of the software tool for incorporating data uncertainty into forecasting. Proposals are presented of a forecasting approach and simulation of the impact of uncertain input parameters to the target forecasted value by this case study model. The statistical analysis and risk analysis of the forecast results is carried out including sensitivity analysis and variables impact analysis.

  2. Uncertainty, joint uncertainty, and the quantum uncertainty principle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narasimhachar, Varun; Poostindouz, Alireza; Gour, Gilad

    2016-01-01

    Historically, the element of uncertainty in quantum mechanics has been expressed through mathematical identities called uncertainty relations, a great many of which continue to be discovered. These relations use diverse measures to quantify uncertainty (and joint uncertainty). In this paper we use operational information-theoretic principles to identify the common essence of all such measures, thereby defining measure-independent notions of uncertainty and joint uncertainty. We find that most existing entropic uncertainty relations use measures of joint uncertainty that yield themselves to a small class of operational interpretations. Our notion relaxes this restriction, revealing previously unexplored joint uncertainty measures. To illustrate the utility of our formalism, we derive an uncertainty relation based on one such new measure. We also use our formalism to gain insight into the conditions under which measure-independent uncertainty relations can be found. (paper)

  3. Environmental Pricing: Studies in Policy Choices and Interactions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    areas of current practice that must be addressed. Empirical studies of policy strategies are discussed to illustrate the extent to which current climate change policy is integrated against the proposed successful policy combinations that are presented in this insightful book. Environmental pricing......Environmental taxes can be efficient tools for successful environmental policy. Their use, however, has been limited in many countries. This thoughtful book explores the scope of environmental pricing and examines a variety of national experiences in environmental policy integration, to identify...

  4. The Effects of an Environmental Studies Course on Selected Variables Related To Environmentally Responsible Behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith-Sebasto, N. J.

    1995-01-01

    Reports that students completing an environmental studies course displayed significant gains when compared with students not completing such a course. These gains were made in acquiring a more internally-oriented locus of control of reinforcement for environmentally responsible behavior, a higher perception of their knowledge of and skill in using…

  5. The relationship between environmental lead and blood lead in children : a study in environmental epidemiology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brunekreef, B.

    1985-01-01

    This study deals with the relationship between environmental lead and blood lead in children.
    Chapter 1 provides a summary of the environmental health aspects of lead. The occurrence of lead in the environment and in man is described; children are discussed as a population at

  6. Studies of environmental compatability. Umweltbundesamt - Texte

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1982-01-01

    The evaluation of the methodical quality of the examples by means of a verification pattern had the result that approaches using quantitative methods - as for example the value in use analysis obtained better results: The representation of the state of the environment and of possible impairments of the environment, which had bejudged, achieved a higher degree of representativeness and completeness. Furthermore the concreteness of the used criteria for the description of the repercussions of a plan and the possibility to quantify same had to be judged more favourable. It must critically be remarked that by using quantitative methods difficulties may appear if impairments of the environment overlap or if there are correlations between the media respectively if there are non-linear repercussions of measures causing environmental damages. The present level of research should be developed to a strenghtened inclusion of complex and dynamic correlations of effects. More exacting investigations concerning environmental compatability are on the long term integrated in administrative procedures only at few authorities. With the demand for an extension of environmental compatability assessment to all steps of planning and procedure for the realization of a plan an early and more intensive participation of the public should be connected.

  7. A study of environmental polluting factors by neutron activation method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paunoiu, C.; Doca, C.

    2004-01-01

    The paper presents: a) some importance factors of the environmental pollution; b) the theoretical aspects of the Neutron Activation Analysis (NAA) used in the study of the environmental pollution; c) the NAA specific hardware and software facilities existing at the Institute for Nuclear Research; d) a direct application of the NAA method in the study of the environmental pollution for Pitesti city by the analysis of some ground and vegetation samples; e) results and conclusions. (authors)

  8. Estimating Coastal Digital Elevation Model (DEM) Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amante, C.; Mesick, S.

    2017-12-01

    Integrated bathymetric-topographic digital elevation models (DEMs) are representations of the Earth's solid surface and are fundamental to the modeling of coastal processes, including tsunami, storm surge, and sea-level rise inundation. Deviations in elevation values from the actual seabed or land surface constitute errors in DEMs, which originate from numerous sources, including: (i) the source elevation measurements (e.g., multibeam sonar, lidar), (ii) the interpolative gridding technique (e.g., spline, kriging) used to estimate elevations in areas unconstrained by source measurements, and (iii) the datum transformation used to convert bathymetric and topographic data to common vertical reference systems. The magnitude and spatial distribution of the errors from these sources are typically unknown, and the lack of knowledge regarding these errors represents the vertical uncertainty in the DEM. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) has developed DEMs for more than 200 coastal communities. This study presents a methodology developed at NOAA NCEI to derive accompanying uncertainty surfaces that estimate DEM errors at the individual cell-level. The development of high-resolution (1/9th arc-second), integrated bathymetric-topographic DEMs along the southwest coast of Florida serves as the case study for deriving uncertainty surfaces. The estimated uncertainty can then be propagated into the modeling of coastal processes that utilize DEMs. Incorporating the uncertainty produces more reliable modeling results, and in turn, better-informed coastal management decisions.

  9. Uncertainty of forest carbon stock changes. Implications to the total uncertainty of GHG inventory of Finland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monni, S.; Savolainen, I.; Peltoniemi, M.; Lehtonen, A.; Makipaa, R.; Palosuo, T.

    2007-01-01

    Uncertainty analysis facilitates identification of the most important categories affecting greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory uncertainty and helps in prioritisation of the efforts needed for development of the inventory. This paper presents an uncertainty analysis of GHG emissions of all Kyoto sectors and gases for Finland consolidated with estimates of emissions/removals from LULUCF categories. In Finland, net GHG emissions in 2003 were around 69 Tg (±15 Tg) CO2 equivalents. The uncertainties in forest carbon sink estimates in 2003 were larger than in most other emission categories, but of the same order of magnitude as in carbon stock change estimates in other land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) categories, and in N2O emissions from agricultural soils. Uncertainties in sink estimates of 1990 were lower, due to better availability of data. Results of this study indicate that inclusion of the forest carbon sink to GHG inventories reported to the UNFCCC increases uncertainties in net emissions notably. However, the decrease in precision is accompanied by an increase in the accuracy of the overall net GHG emissions due to improved completeness of the inventory. The results of this study can be utilised when planning future GHG mitigation protocols and emission trading schemes and when analysing environmental benefits of climate conventions

  10. Uncertainty analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, R.E.

    1982-03-01

    An evaluation is made of the suitability of analytical and statistical sampling methods for making uncertainty analyses. The adjoint method is found to be well-suited for obtaining sensitivity coefficients for computer programs involving large numbers of equations and input parameters. For this purpose the Latin Hypercube Sampling method is found to be inferior to conventional experimental designs. The Latin hypercube method can be used to estimate output probability density functions, but requires supplementary rank transformations followed by stepwise regression to obtain uncertainty information on individual input parameters. A simple Cork and Bottle problem is used to illustrate the efficiency of the adjoint method relative to certain statistical sampling methods. For linear models of the form Ax=b it is shown that a complete adjoint sensitivity analysis can be made without formulating and solving the adjoint problem. This can be done either by using a special type of statistical sampling or by reformulating the primal problem and using suitable linear programming software

  11. A Study on the Uncertainty of Flow-Induced Vibration in a Cross Flow over Staggered Tubes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Ji-Su; Park, Jong-Woon [Dongguk univ, Gyeong Ju (Korea, Republic of); Choi, Hyeon-Kyeong [HanNam University, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    Cross-flow in many support columns of very high temperature reactor (VHTR) lower plenum would have FIV issues under high speed flow jetting from the core. For a group of multiple circular cylinders subjected to a cross-flow, three types of potential vibration mechanisms may exist: (1) Vortex-induced vibration (VIV), (2) Fluid-elastic vibration (FEV) and (3) Turbulence-induced vibration (TIV). Kevalahan studied the free vibration of circular cylinders in a tightly packed periodic square inline array of cylinders. Pandey et al. studied the flue gas flow distribution in the Low Temperature Super Heater (LTSH) tube bundles situated in second pass of a utility boiler and the phenomenon of flow induced vibration. Nakamura et al. studied flow instability of cylinder arrays resembling U-bend tubes in steam generators. The FIV evaluation is usually performed with computational fluid dynamic (CFD) analysis to obtain unknown frequency of oscillation of the multiple objects under turbulent flow and thus the uncertainty residing in the turbulence model used should be quantified. In this paper, potential FIV uncertainty arising from the turbulence phenomena are evaluated for a typical cross flow through staggered tube bundles resembling the VHTR lower plenum support columns. Flow induced vibration (FIV) is one of the important mechanical and fatigue issues in nuclear systems. Especially, cross-flow in many support structures of VHTR lower plenum would have FIV issues under highly turbulent jet flows from the core. The results show that the effect of turbulence parameters on FIV is not negligible and the uncertainty is 5 to 10%. Present method can be applied to future FIV evaluations of nuclear systems. More extensive studies on flow induced vibration in a plant scale by using more rigorous computational methods are under way.

  12. Uncertainty calculations made easier

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hogenbirk, A.

    1994-07-01

    The results are presented of a neutron cross section sensitivity/uncertainty analysis performed in a complicated 2D model of the NET shielding blanket design inside the ITER torus design, surrounded by the cryostat/biological shield as planned for ITER. The calculations were performed with a code system developed at ECN Petten, with which sensitivity/uncertainty calculations become relatively simple. In order to check the deterministic neutron transport calculations (performed with DORT), calculations were also performed with the Monte Carlo code MCNP. Care was taken to model the 2.0 cm wide gaps between two blanket segments, as the neutron flux behind the vacuum vessel is largely determined by neutrons streaming through these gaps. The resulting neutron flux spectra are in excellent agreement up to the end of the cryostat. It is noted, that at this position the attenuation of the neutron flux is about 1 l orders of magnitude. The uncertainty in the energy integrated flux at the beginning of the vacuum vessel and at the beginning of the cryostat was determined in the calculations. The uncertainty appears to be strongly dependent on the exact geometry: if the gaps are filled with stainless steel, the neutron spectrum changes strongly, which results in an uncertainty of 70% in the energy integrated flux at the beginning of the cryostat in the no-gap-geometry, compared to an uncertainty of only 5% in the gap-geometry. Therefore, it is essential to take into account the exact geometry in sensitivity/uncertainty calculations. Furthermore, this study shows that an improvement of the covariance data is urgently needed in order to obtain reliable estimates of the uncertainties in response parameters in neutron transport calculations. (orig./GL)

  13. Do I still want to take this? Soll ich das wirklich schlucken? Uncertainty avoidance in English and German PILs - a contrastive study

    OpenAIRE

    Verplaetse, Heidi; Wermuth, Cornelia

    2013-01-01

    Do I still want to take this? Soll ich das wirklich schlucken? Uncertainty avoidance in English and German PILs - a contrastive study Aim and focus The current study aims to compare the linguistic means used in German and English patient information leaflets (PILs) for patients’ understanding and behaviour concerning medicine intake. We focus on the expression of uncertainty avoidance. Background Three studies and a European guideline lie at the basis of the current study. ...

  14. Environmental Regulation and Food Safety: Studies of Protection ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Environmental Regulation and Food Safety: Studies of Protection and Protectionism. Book cover Environmental Regulation and Food Safety: Studies of Protection and Protectionism. Directeur(s) : Veena Jha. Maison(s) d'édition : Edward Elgar, IDRC. 1 janvier 2006. ISBN : 184542512X. 250 pages. e-ISBN : 155250185X.

  15. Environmental ethics and wilderness management: an empirical study

    Science.gov (United States)

    William A. Valliere; Robert E. Manning

    1995-01-01

    The underlying hypothesis of this study is that environmental ethics influence public attitudes toward wilderness management. To study this hypothesis, environmental ethics were defined, categorized, and measured empirically. Additionally, attitudes toward selected wilderness management issues were measured. Associations were found between beliefs in selected...

  16. Accounting for uncertainty in evaluating water quality impacts of urban development plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou Jiquan; Liu Yi; Chen Jining

    2010-01-01

    The implementation of urban development plans causes land use change, which can have significant environmental impacts. In light of this, environmental concerns should be considered sufficiently at an early stage of the planning process. However, uncertainties existing in urban development plans hamper the application of strategic environmental assessment, which is applied to evaluate the environmental impacts of policies, plans and programs. This study develops an integrated assessment method based on accounting uncertainty of environmental impacts. And the proposed method consists of four main steps: (1) designing scenarios of economic scale and industrial structure, (2) sampling for possible land use layouts, (3) evaluating each sample's environmental impact, and (4) identifying environmentally sensitive industries. In doing so, uncertainties of environmental impacts can be accounted. Then environmental risk, overall environmental pressure and potential extreme environmental impact of urban development plans can be analyzed, and environmentally sensitive factors can be identified, especially under considerations of uncertainties. It can help decision-makers enhance environmental consideration and take measures in the early stage of decision-making.

  17. Shelf life extension as solution for environmental impact mitigation: A case study for bakery products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacenetti, Jacopo; Cavaliere, Alessia; Falcone, Giacomo; Giovenzana, Valentina; Banterle, Alessandro; Guidetti, Riccardo

    2018-06-15

    Over the last years, increasing attention has been paid to environmental concerns related to food production and potential solutions to this issue. Among the different strategies being considered to reduce the impact food production has on the environment, only moderate has been paid to the extension of shelf life; a longer shelf life can reduce food losses as well as the economic and environmental impacts of the distribution logistics. The aim of this study is to assess the environmental performance of whole-wheat breadsticks with extended shelf lives and to evaluate whether the shelf-life extension is an effective mitigation solution from an environmental point of view. To this purpose, the life cycle assessment (LCA) approach was applied from a "cradle-to-grave" perspective. Rosmarinic acid was used as an antioxidant to extend the shelf life. To test the robustness of the results and to investigate the influence of the choices made in the modelling phase, a sensitivity and uncertainty analysis were carried out. The achieved results highlighted how, for 10 of the 12 evaluated impact categories, the shelf-life extension is a proper mitigation solution, and its effectiveness depends on the magnitude of product loss reduction that is achieved. The shelf-life extension doesn't allow for the reduction of environmental impact in the categories of human toxicity, cancer effects and freshwater eutrophication. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. The neurobiology of uncertainty: implications for statistical learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasson, Uri

    2017-01-05

    The capacity for assessing the degree of uncertainty in the environment relies on estimating statistics of temporally unfolding inputs. This, in turn, allows calibration of predictive and bottom-up processing, and signalling changes in temporally unfolding environmental features. In the last decade, several studies have examined how the brain codes for and responds to input uncertainty. Initial neurobiological experiments implicated frontoparietal and hippocampal systems, based largely on paradigms that manipulated distributional features of visual stimuli. However, later work in the auditory domain pointed to different systems, whose activation profiles have interesting implications for computational and neurobiological models of statistical learning (SL). This review begins by briefly recapping the historical development of ideas pertaining to the sensitivity to uncertainty in temporally unfolding inputs. It then discusses several issues at the interface of studies of uncertainty and SL. Following, it presents several current treatments of the neurobiology of uncertainty and reviews recent findings that point to principles that serve as important constraints on future neurobiological theories of uncertainty, and relatedly, SL. This review suggests it may be useful to establish closer links between neurobiological research on uncertainty and SL, considering particularly mechanisms sensitive to local and global structure in inputs, the degree of input uncertainty, the complexity of the system generating the input, learning mechanisms that operate on different temporal scales and the use of learnt information for online prediction.This article is part of the themed issue 'New frontiers for statistical learning in the cognitive sciences'. © 2016 The Author(s).

  19. Environmental impact study of Orion Nebula dust

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cardelli, J.A.; Clayton, G.C.

    1988-01-01

    In this paper, new high-quality extinction curves are presented for Theta-1 Ori A, C, and D, and Theta-2 Ori A and B, over the wavelength range 3300-6000 A. These are coupled with near-infrared and ultraviolet data to produce extinction curves from 0.12 to 3.5 microns. The Orion Nebula region is interesting in that most of the known processes of dust-grain growth, processing, and destruction may be operating nearly simultaneously in close proximity to one another. Each of these processes is considered with respect to the observed extinction curves and environmental conditions in the Orion Nebula and its associated molecular cloud. Plausible grain populations are fit to the observed extinction curves. A good fit to the average Theta Ori extinction curve can be obtained with: (1) a combination of larger than normal silicate grains produced through coagulation and accretion; (2) evaporation of volatile mantles; and (3) a reduction in the column density of small (smaller than 0.01 micron) grains responsible for the bump and far-ultraviolet extinction through differential acceleration due to radiation pressure and possible evaporation. It seems plausible to explain the observed peculiar extinction in the Orion Nebula simply by environmental effects on otherwise normal grains. 59 references

  20. Uncertainty and validation. Effect of model complexity on uncertainty estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elert, M.

    1996-09-01

    In the Model Complexity subgroup of BIOMOVS II, models of varying complexity have been applied to the problem of downward transport of radionuclides in soils. A scenario describing a case of surface contamination of a pasture soil was defined. Three different radionuclides with different environmental behavior and radioactive half-lives were considered: Cs-137, Sr-90 and I-129. The intention was to give a detailed specification of the parameters required by different kinds of model, together with reasonable values for the parameter uncertainty. A total of seven modelling teams participated in the study using 13 different models. Four of the modelling groups performed uncertainty calculations using nine different modelling approaches. The models used range in complexity from analytical solutions of a 2-box model using annual average data to numerical models coupling hydrology and transport using data varying on a daily basis. The complex models needed to consider all aspects of radionuclide transport in a soil with a variable hydrology are often impractical to use in safety assessments. Instead simpler models, often box models, are preferred. The comparison of predictions made with the complex models and the simple models for this scenario show that the predictions in many cases are very similar, e g in the predictions of the evolution of the root zone concentration. However, in other cases differences of many orders of magnitude can appear. One example is the prediction of the flux to the groundwater of radionuclides being transported through the soil column. Some issues that have come to focus in this study: There are large differences in the predicted soil hydrology and as a consequence also in the radionuclide transport, which suggests that there are large uncertainties in the calculation of effective precipitation and evapotranspiration. The approach used for modelling the water transport in the root zone has an impact on the predictions of the decline in root

  1. Making optimal investment decisions for energy service companies under uncertainty: A case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deng, Qianli; Jiang, Xianglin; Zhang, Limao; Cui, Qingbin

    2015-01-01

    Varied initial energy efficiency investments would result in different annual energy savings achievements. In order to balance the savings revenue and the potential capital loss through EPC (Energy Performance Contracting), a cost-effective investment decision is needed when selecting energy efficiency technologies. In this research, an approach is developed for the ESCO (Energy Service Company) to evaluate the potential energy savings profit, and thus make the optimal investment decisions. The energy savings revenue under uncertainties, which are derived from energy efficiency performance variation and energy price fluctuation, are first modeled as stochastic processes. Then, the derived energy savings profit is shared by the owner and the ESCO according to the contract specification. A simulation-based model is thus built to maximize the owner's profit, and at the same time, satisfy the ESCO's expected rate of return. In order to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed approach, the University of Maryland campus case is also presented. The proposed method could not only help the ESCO determine the optimal energy efficiency investments, but also assist the owner's decision in the bidding selection. - Highlights: • An optimization model is built for determining energy efficiency investment for ESCO. • Evolution of the energy savings revenue is modeled as a stochastic process. • Simulation is adopted to calculate investment balancing the owner and the ESCO's profit. • A campus case is presented to demonstrate applicability of the proposed approach

  2. Environmental Studies of Schizophrenia Through the Prism of Epigenetics

    OpenAIRE

    Oh, Gabriel; Petronis, Arturas

    2008-01-01

    Traditionally, etiological research of schizophrenia has been focused on elucidating predisposing genes and environmental risk factors. While numerous putative environmental hazards have been suggested, inconsistencies and methodological limitations of epidemiological studies have made it difficult to identify even a single exogenous cause of schizophrenia. Furthermore, there is increasing evidence that environmental risk factors may not play as much of a significant role in schizophrenia as ...

  3. Environmental radiation studies relevant to thermoluminescence dating

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murray, A.S.; Bowman, S.G.E.; Aitken, M.J.

    1980-01-01

    To determine the age of a potsherd by the thermoluminescence (TL) technique, one must have an accurate knowledge of the cosmic and environmental gamma dose rate in quartz. This is obtained by leaving a sensitive TL dosimeter buried as near as possible to the position from which the sherd was removed. The ratios of the response of a quartz-like dosimeter to those of CaF 2 and LiF have been measured. This experiment used a 1-m cube of concrete containing 3000 ppM of uranium and its daughters. Smaller, less active matrixes of 40 K and thorium and its daughters have also been constructed. A means of making direct dose-rate determinations when the site context remains but burial of a dosimeter is impractical was developed using a NaI(Tl) system. The equipment was field tested on approx. 40 Peruvian archaeological sites, and results are compared with CaF 2 measurements

  4. Uncertainty analysis in estimating Japanese ingestion of global fallout Cs-137 using health risk evaluation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimada, Yoko; Morisawa, Shinsuke

    1998-01-01

    Most of model estimation of the environmental contamination includes some uncertainty associated with the parameter uncertainty in the model. In this study, the uncertainty was analyzed in a model for evaluating the ingestion of radionuclide caused by the long-term global low-level radioactive contamination by using various uncertainty analysis methods: the percentile estimate, the robustness analysis and the fuzzy estimate. The model is mainly composed of five sub-models, which include their own uncertainty; we also analyzed the uncertainty. The major findings obtained in this study include that the possibility of the discrepancy between predicted value by the model simulation and the observed data is less than 10%; the uncertainty of the predicted value is higher before 1950 and after 1980; the uncertainty of the predicted value can be reduced by decreasing the uncertainty of some environmental parameters in the model; the reliability of the model can definitively depend on the following environmental factors: direct foliar absorption coefficient, transfer factor of radionuclide from stratosphere down to troposphere, residual rate by food processing and cooking, transfer factor of radionuclide in ocean and sedimentation in ocean. (author)

  5. Environmental studies in the Timmins area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Balsillie, D; McGovern, P C

    1973-01-01

    In 1970 the Phytotoxicology Section of the Air Management Branch initiated a pre-pollution background survey of the environmental situation in the Timmins area where Texas Gulf Sulphur was expected to construct an electrolytic zinc refinery near Hoyle (12 miles northeast of Timmins). In April 1972, the refinery began production, and during the 1972 growing season this new plant operated at a rate of 70 to 90% of the theoretical capacity. The refinery is located adjacent to the ore concentrator which has been operative since November 1966. During 1970, 1971, and 1972, Phytotoxicology personnel conducted an extensive program of environmental analysis and evaluation in the area. The information gathered to date indicates that within a 20 mile radius of the refinery, the condition of the vegetation (trees, shrubs, and ground flora) is similar to that existing in the control areas (number of species, number of plants, growth rate, crown condition etc.) which are located 50 miles from Hoyle. The lead peroxide candle survey showed that only background levels of sulfur dioxide were present in the ambient air both before and after the initiation of operations at the refinery. No SO/sub 2/ injury to vegetation has been observed in the Hoyle area. Chemical analysis of the vegetation, soil, and water samples collected at twelve established plots in 1971 shows elevated levels of metals in the soil immediately to the east and northeast of Hoyle. These same metals were elevated also in the vegetation collected at plots 1 and 2, close to the plant. Further work is planned to determine the source of this contamination. 13 tables.

  6. An interdisciplinary approach to volcanic risk reduction under conditions of uncertainty: a case study of Tristan da Cunha

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hicks, A.; Barclay, J.; Simmons, P.; Loughlin, S.

    2014-07-01

    The uncertainty brought about by intermittent volcanic activity is fairly common at volcanoes worldwide. While better knowledge of any one volcano's behavioural characteristics has the potential to reduce this uncertainty, the subsequent reduction of risk from volcanic threats is only realised if that knowledge is pertinent to stakeholders and effectively communicated to inform good decision making. Success requires integration of methods, skills and expertise across disciplinary boundaries. This research project develops and trials a novel interdisciplinary approach to volcanic risk reduction on the remote volcanic island of Tristan da Cunha (South Atlantic). For the first time, volcanological techniques, probabilistic decision support and social scientific methods were integrated in a single study. New data were produced that (1) established no spatio-temporal pattern to recent volcanic activity; (2) quantified the high degree of scientific uncertainty around future eruptive scenarios; (3) analysed the physical vulnerability of the community as a consequence of their geographical isolation and exposure to volcanic hazards; (4) evaluated social and cultural influences on vulnerability and resilience; and (5) evaluated the effectiveness of a scenario planning approach, both as a method for integrating the different strands of the research and as a way of enabling on-island decision makers to take ownership of risk identification and management, and capacity building within their community. The paper provides empirical evidence of the value of an innovative interdisciplinary framework for reducing volcanic risk. It also provides evidence for the strength that comes from integrating social and physical sciences with the development of effective, tailored engagement and communication strategies in volcanic risk reduction.

  7. ENVIRONMENTAL REPORTING AT INTERNATIONAL LEVEL (STUDY OF THE LITERATURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    IENCIU Ionel-Alin

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available One of the most important areas of development during the last 15 years, as far as accounting is concerned, has been the environmental reporting and accounting, generating interests beyond the restrictions imposed by purely academic discussions or the professional accountants community. The objective of the paper is represented by the analysis of scientific knowledge and existing practices in the area of environmental reporting. Mathews (1997, 2001 and Parker (2005 are one of the most representative studies that examine the evolution and status of researches in the area of accounting and environmental reporting. Because of the fact that reports offered by the traditional financial accounting system are insufficient for reflecting a clear and complete image of the company's environmantal impact, I monitored the frameworks or mechanisms of environmental information. Also, the paper analysis the articles treating international environmental reporting, articles publised in ISI quoted or BDI indexed journals. The collection and analysis of reporting frames, the interpretation and analysis thereof represent the main instruments used in order to bring to the forefront the main existing reporting frames for environmental information, found at international level. The quantitative, applicative research is used to reflect the current status of researches in the field of environmental reporting, using the non-participative observation to reflect the current status of researches in the field of environmental reporting, by using the non-participative observation, the collection and analysis of articles as main research instruments. The study concludes that environmental reporting continues to represent the main attraction of researchers in the field of environmental accounting. The main reason for researches on environmental reporting is represented by the description, investigation and improvement of practices on accounting and reporting environmental

  8. Environmental Studies Center Teacher Books. 4th Grade - Mangrove Communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin County Schools, Jensen Beach, FL. Environmental Studies Center.

    This teacher's guide, one of nine teacher packages developed for use in the sequential, hands-on, field-oriented, K-8 environmental education program of the Martin County Schools in Florida, was developed for use with elementary children in grade four prior to and after a visit to an environmental studies center located near an estuarine area. The…

  9. Study questions environmental impact of fuel-cell vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stafford, Ned

    2015-09-01

    Fuel-cell electric vehicles are seen by many as an environmentally friendly technology that can reduce greenhousegas emissions by producing no harmful emissions. But a new study has found that overall a fuel cell electric vehicle has about the same negative environmental impact as a luxury sports car.

  10. A Longitudinal Study of the Impact of an Environmental Action

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rioux, Liliane; Pasquier, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    In a previous study, we investigated the impact of an awareness-raising campaign on the behaviour of secondary school children in the Centre Region of France, regarding the recycling of used batteries. But, was it a question of pro-environmental behaviour or simply an environmental action? To answer this question, a three-year longitudinal study…

  11. A Software Toolkit to Study Systematic Uncertainties of the Physics Models of the Geant4 Simulation Package

    Science.gov (United States)

    Genser, Krzysztof; Hatcher, Robert; Kelsey, Michael; Perdue, Gabriel; Wenzel, Hans; Wright, Dennis H.; Yarba, Julia

    2017-10-01

    The Geant4 simulation toolkit is used to model interactions between particles and matter. Geant4 employs a set of validated physics models that span a wide range of interaction energies. These models rely on measured cross-sections and phenomenological models with the physically motivated parameters that are tuned to cover many application domains. To study what uncertainties are associated with the Geant4 physics models we have designed and implemented a comprehensive, modular, user-friendly software toolkit that allows the variation of one or more parameters of one or more Geant4 physics models involved in simulation studies. It also enables analysis of multiple variants of the resulting physics observables of interest in order to estimate the uncertainties associated with the simulation model choices. Based on modern event-processing infrastructure software, the toolkit offers a variety of attractive features, e.g. flexible run-time configurable workflow, comprehensive bookkeeping, easy to expand collection of analytical components. Design, implementation technology, and key functionalities of the toolkit are presented in this paper and illustrated with selected results.

  12. Uncertainty and Sensitivity Studies with TRACE-SUSA and TRACE-DAKOTA by Means of Transient BFBT Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wadim Jaeger

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In the present paper, an uncertainty and sensitivity study is performed for transient void fraction and pressure drop measurements. Two transients have been selected from the NUPEC BFBT database. The first one is a turbine trip without bypass and the second one is a trip of a recirculation pump. TRACE (version 5.0 patch 2 is used for the thermohydraulic study and SUSA and DAKOTA are used for the quantification of the model uncertainties and the evaluation of the sensitivities. As uncertain parameters geometrical values, hydraulic diameter, and wall roughness are considered while mass flow rate, power, pressure, and inlet subcooling (inlet temperature are chosen as boundary and input conditions. Since these parameters change with time, it is expected that the importance of them on pressure drop and void fraction will change, too. The results show that the pressure drop is mostly sensitive to geometrical variations like the hydraulic diameter and the form loss coefficient of the spacer grid. For low void fractions, the parameter of the highest importance is the inlet temperature/subcooling while at higher void fraction the power is also of importance.

  13. Bootstrap-after-bootstrap model averaging for reducing model uncertainty in model selection for air pollution mortality studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Steven; Martin, Michael A

    2010-01-01

    Concerns have been raised about findings of associations between particulate matter (PM) air pollution and mortality that have been based on a single "best" model arising from a model selection procedure, because such a strategy may ignore model uncertainty inherently involved in searching through a set of candidate models to find the best model. Model averaging has been proposed as a method of allowing for model uncertainty in this context. To propose an extension (double BOOT) to a previously described bootstrap model-averaging procedure (BOOT) for use in time series studies of the association between PM and mortality. We compared double BOOT and BOOT with Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and a standard method of model selection [standard Akaike's information criterion (AIC)]. Actual time series data from the United States are used to conduct a simulation study to compare and contrast the performance of double BOOT, BOOT, BMA, and standard AIC. Double BOOT produced estimates of the effect of PM on mortality that have had smaller root mean squared error than did those produced by BOOT, BMA, and standard AIC. This performance boost resulted from estimates produced by double BOOT having smaller variance than those produced by BOOT and BMA. Double BOOT is a viable alternative to BOOT and BMA for producing estimates of the mortality effect of PM.

  14. Distribution network design under demand uncertainty using genetic algorithm and Monte Carlo simulation approach: a case study in pharmaceutical industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Izadi, Arman; Kimiagari, Ali Mohammad

    2014-05-01

    Distribution network design as a strategic decision has long-term effect on tactical and operational supply chain management. In this research, the location-allocation problem is studied under demand uncertainty. The purposes of this study were to specify the optimal number and location of distribution centers and to determine the allocation of customer demands to distribution centers. The main feature of this research is solving the model with unknown demand function which is suitable with the real-world problems. To consider the uncertainty, a set of possible scenarios for customer demands is created based on the Monte Carlo simulation. The coefficient of variation of costs is mentioned as a measure of risk and the most stable structure for firm's distribution network is defined based on the concept of robust optimization. The best structure is identified using genetic algorithms and 14 % reduction in total supply chain costs is the outcome. Moreover, it imposes the least cost variation created by fluctuation in customer demands (such as epidemic diseases outbreak in some areas of the country) to the logistical system. It is noteworthy that this research is done in one of the largest pharmaceutical distribution firms in Iran.

  15. Uncertainties in life cycle assessment of waste management systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clavreul, Julie; Christensen, Thomas Højlund

    2011-01-01

    Life cycle assessment has been used to assess environmental performances of waste management systems in many studies. The uncertainties inherent to its results are often pointed out but not always quantified, which should be the case to ensure a good decisionmaking process. This paper proposes...... a method to assess all parameter uncertainties and quantify the overall uncertainty of the assessment. The method is exemplified in a case study, where the goal is to determine if anaerobic digestion of organic waste is more beneficial than incineration in Denmark, considering only the impact on global...... warming. The sensitivity analysis pointed out ten parameters particularly highly influencing the result of the study. In the uncertainty analysis, the distributions of these ten parameters were used in a Monte Carlo analysis, which concluded that incineration appeared more favourable than anaerobic...

  16. Environmental study of nylon flocking process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkhart, J; Piacitelli, C; Schwegler-Berry, D; Jones, W

    1999-05-14

    Environmental measurements for a variety of gas, particulate, and microbiological agents have been made in order to characterize exposures associated with the nylon flocking process. Of all agents measured, particulate is the predominant exposure. Levels of total particulate ranged from O.1 to 240 mg/m3 (x = 11.4 mg/m3). Average respirable particulate was 2.2 mg/m3, ranging from 0.5 to 39.9 mg/m3. Highest levels of particulates were found in the flocking room, and direct reading dust measurements indicate that the highest peak exposures are associated with "blowdown" (a cleaning procedure used between flocking runs). The nature of the airborne particles was investigated using polarized light and scanning electron microscopy. Air samples were found to contain flock particles (fibers nominally 10-15 microm in diameter by about 1000 microm in length) and a variety of respirable particles types, several of which were linked directly to the process. Of special interest were elongated respirable particles, which by microscopic analysis, complemented with melting-point determination, were found to be shreds of nylon.

  17. Parameter and model uncertainty in a life-table model for fine particles (PM2.5): a statistical modeling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tainio, Marko; Tuomisto, Jouni T; Hänninen, Otto; Ruuskanen, Juhani; Jantunen, Matti J; Pekkanen, Juha

    2007-08-23

    The estimation of health impacts involves often uncertain input variables and assumptions which have to be incorporated into the model structure. These uncertainties may have significant effects on the results obtained with model, and, thus, on decision making. Fine particles (PM2.5) are believed to cause major health impacts, and, consequently, uncertainties in their health impact assessment have clear relevance to policy-making. We studied the effects of various uncertain input variables by building a life-table model for fine particles. Life-expectancy of the Helsinki metropolitan area population and the change in life-expectancy due to fine particle exposures were predicted using a life-table model. A number of parameter and model uncertainties were estimated. Sensitivity analysis for input variables was performed by calculating rank-order correlations between input and output variables. The studied model uncertainties were (i) plausibility of mortality outcomes and (ii) lag, and parameter uncertainties (iii) exposure-response coefficients for different mortality outcomes, and (iv) exposure estimates for different age groups. The monetary value of the years-of-life-lost and the relative importance of the uncertainties related to monetary valuation were predicted to compare the relative importance of the monetary valuation on the health effect uncertainties. The magnitude of the health effects costs depended mostly on discount rate, exposure-response coefficient, and plausibility of the cardiopulmonary mortality. Other mortality outcomes (lung cancer, other non-accidental and infant mortality) and lag had only minor impact on the output. The results highlight the importance of the uncertainties associated with cardiopulmonary mortality in the fine particle impact assessment when compared with other uncertainties. When estimating life-expectancy, the estimates used for cardiopulmonary exposure-response coefficient, discount rate, and plausibility require careful

  18. Parameter and model uncertainty in a life-table model for fine particles (PM2.5: a statistical modeling study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jantunen Matti J

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The estimation of health impacts involves often uncertain input variables and assumptions which have to be incorporated into the model structure. These uncertainties may have significant effects on the results obtained with model, and, thus, on decision making. Fine particles (PM2.5 are believed to cause major health impacts, and, consequently, uncertainties in their health impact assessment have clear relevance to policy-making. We studied the effects of various uncertain input variables by building a life-table model for fine particles. Methods Life-expectancy of the Helsinki metropolitan area population and the change in life-expectancy due to fine particle exposures were predicted using a life-table model. A number of parameter and model uncertainties were estimated. Sensitivity analysis for input variables was performed by calculating rank-order correlations between input and output variables. The studied model uncertainties were (i plausibility of mortality outcomes and (ii lag, and parameter uncertainties (iii exposure-response coefficients for different mortality outcomes, and (iv exposure estimates for different age groups. The monetary value of the years-of-life-lost and the relative importance of the uncertainties related to monetary valuation were predicted to compare the relative importance of the monetary valuation on the health effect uncertainties. Results The magnitude of the health effects costs depended mostly on discount rate, exposure-response coefficient, and plausibility of the cardiopulmonary mortality. Other mortality outcomes (lung cancer, other non-accidental and infant mortality and lag had only minor impact on the output. The results highlight the importance of the uncertainties associated with cardiopulmonary mortality in the fine particle impact assessment when compared with other uncertainties. Conclusion When estimating life-expectancy, the estimates used for cardiopulmonary exposure

  19. Integrated waste load allocation for river water pollution control under uncertainty: a case study of Tuojiang River, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Jiuping; Hou, Shuhua; Yao, Liming; Li, Chaozhi

    2017-07-01

    This paper presents a bi-level optimization waste load allocation programming model under a fuzzy random environment to assist integrated river pollution control. Taking account of the leader-follower decision-making in the water function zones framework, the proposed approach examines the decision making feedback relationships and conflict coordination between the river basin authority and the regional Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) based on the Stackelberg-Nash equilibrium strategy. In the pollution control system, the river basin authority, as the leader, allocates equitable emissions rights to different subareas, and the then subarea EPA, as the followers, reallocates the limited resources to various functional zones to minimize pollution costs. This research also considers the uncertainty in the water pollution management, and the uncertain input information is expressed as fuzzy random variables. The proposed methodological approach is then applied to Tuojiang River in China and the bi-level linear programming model solutions are achieved using the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker condition. Based on the waste load allocation scheme results and various scenario analyses and discussion, some operational policies are proposed to assist decision makers (DMs) cope with waste load allocation problem for integrated river pollution control for the overall benefits.

  20. Uncertainty and validation. Effect of model complexity on uncertainty estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elert, M. [Kemakta Konsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden)] [ed.

    1996-09-01

    In the Model Complexity subgroup of BIOMOVS II, models of varying complexity have been applied to the problem of downward transport of radionuclides in soils. A scenario describing a case of surface contamination of a pasture soil was defined. Three different radionuclides with different environmental behavior and radioactive half-lives were considered: Cs-137, Sr-90 and I-129. The intention was to give a detailed specification of the parameters required by different kinds of model, together with reasonable values for the parameter uncertainty. A total of seven modelling teams participated in the study using 13 different models. Four of the modelling groups performed uncertainty calculations using nine different modelling approaches. The models used range in complexity from analytical solutions of a 2-box model using annual average data to numerical models coupling hydrology and transport using data varying on a daily basis. The complex models needed to consider all aspects of radionuclide transport in a soil with a variable hydrology are often impractical to use in safety assessments. Instead simpler models, often box models, are preferred. The comparison of predictions made with the complex models and the simple models for this scenario show that the predictions in many cases are very similar, e g in the predictions of the evolution of the root zone concentration. However, in other cases differences of many orders of magnitude can appear. One example is the prediction of the flux to the groundwater of radionuclides being transported through the soil column. Some issues that have come to focus in this study: There are large differences in the predicted soil hydrology and as a consequence also in the radionuclide transport, which suggests that there are large uncertainties in the calculation of effective precipitation and evapotranspiration. The approach used for modelling the water transport in the root zone has an impact on the predictions of the decline in root

  1. Uncertainties in historical pollution data from sedimentary records from an Australian urban floodplain lake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lintern, A.; Leahy, P.; Deletic, A.; Heijnis, H.; Zawadzki, A.; Gadd, P.; McCarthy, D.

    2018-05-01

    Sediment cores from aquatic environments can provide valuable information about historical pollution levels and sources. However, there is little understanding of the uncertainties associated with these findings. The aim of this study is to fill this knowledge gap by proposing a framework for quantifying the uncertainties in historical heavy metal pollution records reconstructed from sediment cores. This uncertainty framework consists of six sources of uncertainty: uncertainties in (1) metals analysis methods, (2) spatial variability of sediment core heavy metal profiles, (3) sub-sampling intervals, (4) the sediment chronology, (5) the assumption that metal levels in bed sediments reflect the magnitude of metal inputs into the aquatic system, and (6) post-depositional transformation of metals. We apply this uncertainty framework to an urban floodplain lake in South-East Australia (Willsmere Billabong). We find that for this site, uncertainties in historical dated heavy metal profiles can be up to 176%, largely due to uncertainties in the sediment chronology, and in the assumption that the settled heavy metal mass is equivalent to the heavy metal mass entering the aquatic system. As such, we recommend that future studies reconstructing historical pollution records using sediment cores from aquatic systems undertake an investigation of the uncertainties in the reconstructed pollution record, using the uncertainty framework provided in this study. We envisage that quantifying and understanding the uncertainties associated with the reconstructed pollution records will facilitate the practical application of sediment core heavy metal profiles in environmental management projects.

  2. Uncertainties in individual doses in a case-control study of thyroid cancer after the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drozdovitch, V.; Maceika, E.; Khrouch, V.; Zvonova, I.; Vlasov, O.; Bouville, A.; Cardis, E.

    2007-01-01

    Individual radiation doses to the thyroid were reconstructed for 2239 subjects of a case-control study of thyroid cancer among young people that was carried out in regions of Belarus and Russia contaminated by radioactive fallout from the Chernobyl accident. Although the process of dose reconstruction provides a point estimate of each subject's dose, it is obvious that there is uncertainty associated with these dose calculations. The following main sources of uncertainty in the estimated individual doses were identified: (1) shared and un-shared errors associated with parameters of the dosimetry model; and (2) un-shared errors that are associated with the variability, reliability and ability of information from the personal interviews. Besides setting up proper distributions for the parameters of the dosimetry model, inter-individual correlations were also defined to take into account shared errors. By the application of Monte Carlo simulations, a set of approximately log-normally distributed thyroid doses was obtained for each subject; the geometric standard deviations of the distributions are found to vary among individuals from 1.7 to 3.7. (authors)

  3. Estimates of bias and uncertainty in recorded external dose

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fix, J.J.; Gilbert, E.S.; Baumgartner, W.V.

    1994-10-01

    A study is underway to develop an approach to quantify bias and uncertainty in recorded dose estimates for workers at the Hanford Site based on personnel dosimeter results. This paper focuses on selected experimental studies conducted to better define response characteristics of Hanford dosimeters. The study is more extensive than the experimental studies presented in this paper and includes detailed consideration and evaluation of other sources of bias and uncertainty. Hanford worker dose estimates are used in epidemiologic studies of nuclear workers. A major objective of these studies is to provide a direct assessment of the carcinogenic risk of exposure to ionizing radiation at low doses and dose rates. Considerations of bias and uncertainty in the recorded dose estimates are important in the conduct of this work. The method developed for use with Hanford workers can be considered an elaboration of the approach used to quantify bias and uncertainty in estimated doses for personnel exposed to radiation as a result of atmospheric testing of nuclear weapons between 1945 and 1962. This approach was first developed by a National Research Council (NRC) committee examining uncertainty in recorded film badge doses during atmospheric tests (NRC 1989). It involved quantifying both bias and uncertainty from three sources (i.e., laboratory, radiological, and environmental) and then combining them to obtain an overall assessment. Sources of uncertainty have been evaluated for each of three specific Hanford dosimetry systems (i.e., the Hanford two-element film dosimeter, 1944-1956; the Hanford multi-element film dosimeter, 1957-1971; and the Hanford multi-element TLD, 1972-1993) used to estimate personnel dose throughout the history of Hanford operations. Laboratory, radiological, and environmental sources of bias and uncertainty have been estimated based on historical documentation and, for angular response, on selected laboratory measurements

  4. Study of the environmental cycling of mercury

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia Frades, J P; Hildebrand, S G; Huckabee, J W; Murias, B; Diaz, F S; Wilson, R H

    1977-01-01

    A study of mercury in the environment is under way near the mercury mine at Almaden, Spain. The main aspects of the project are: ecology; atmospheric monitoring; and human studies. The mercury deposit at Almaden is described. The liquid effluent from the mine and smelter contains high concentrations of mercury that pollute nearby rivers. Sample collection and analytical methods used in the ecological survey are reviewed. Ecological experiments are considered. Air monitoring studies and human studies currently being performed are assessed. (1 map)

  5. The precautionary principle as a provisional instrument in environmental policy: The Montreal Protocol case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacobs, J. Roger

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • I examine whether a policy invoked under the Precautionary Principle can move beyond provisional status. • I review the certainty of conclusions based upon the Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project. • There is high certainty that anthropogenic ozone depletion has health consequences in polar regions. • Current research focuses on long term projections of risk that perpetuates high uncertainty. • Establishment of a community to generate Assessments acts to perpetuate the period of uncertainty. - Abstract: Environmental studies identify possible threats to the health of the public or the environment when the scientific certainty of risk is low, but the potential cost is high. Governments may respond by invoking the Precautionary Principle, holding that scientific certainty is not required to take actions that reduce possible risk. EU guidelines suggest that precautionary measures remain provisional until sufficient scientific certainty is generated. Here I study the Scientific Assessments produced for the Montreal Protocol, and the scientific community that generates them, and ask whether a long-standing program of scientific investigation and monitoring can generate sufficient scientific certainty to move beyond dependence on the Precautionary Principle. When the Montreal Protocol was ratified, many scientists strongly suspected that anthropogenic substances like chlorofluorocarbons were depleting stratospheric ozone. Although the risk was uncertain, the perceived cost to public health of ozone depletion was high. A quarter century after formulating the Montreal Protocol, science can define the conditions for ozone depletion with great certainty, but uncertainty remains in determining the scale and distribution of the attributable increase in damaging ultra-violet (UV) radiation. Organisations, such as NASA, and scientists that contribute to the Scientific Assessments comprise the community in which the scientific consensus of risk is

  6. Environmental confounding in gene-environment interaction studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanderweele, Tyler J; Ko, Yi-An; Mukherjee, Bhramar

    2013-07-01

    We show that, in the presence of uncontrolled environmental confounding, joint tests for the presence of a main genetic effect and gene-environment interaction will be biased if the genetic and environmental factors are correlated, even if there is no effect of either the genetic factor or the environmental factor on the disease. When environmental confounding is ignored, such tests will in fact reject the joint null of no genetic effect with a probability that tends to 1 as the sample size increases. This problem with the joint test vanishes under gene-environment independence, but it still persists if estimating the gene-environment interaction parameter itself is of interest. Uncontrolled environmental confounding will bias estimates of gene-environment interaction parameters even under gene-environment independence, but it will not do so if the unmeasured confounding variable itself does not interact with the genetic factor. Under gene-environment independence, if the interaction parameter without controlling for the environmental confounder is nonzero, then there is gene-environment interaction either between the genetic factor and the environmental factor of interest or between the genetic factor and the unmeasured environmental confounder. We evaluate several recently proposed joint tests in a simulation study and discuss the implications of these results for the conduct of gene-environment interaction studies.

  7. Assessing Vulnerability under Uncertainty in the Colorado River Basin: The Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jerla, C.; Adams, P.; Butler, A.; Nowak, K.; Prairie, J. R.

    2013-12-01

    Spanning parts of the seven states, of Arizona, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Utah, and Wyoming, the Colorado River is one of the most critical sources of water in the western United States. Colorado River allocations exceed the long-term supply and since the 1950s, there have been a number of years when the annual water use in the Colorado River Basin exceeded the yield. The Basin is entering its second decade of drought conditions which brings challenges that will only be compounded if projections of climate change are realized. It was against this backdrop that the Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study was conducted. The Study's objectives are to define current and future imbalances in the Basin over the next 50 years and to develop and analyze adaptation and mitigation strategies to resolve those imbalances. Long-term planning in the Basin involves the integration of uncertainty with respect to a changing climate and other uncertainties such as future demand and how policies may be modified to adapt to changing reliability. The Study adopted a scenario planning approach to address this uncertainty in which thousands of scenarios were developed to encompass a wide range of plausible future water supply and demand conditions. Using Reclamation's long-term planning model, the Colorado River Simulation System, the reliability of the system to meet Basin resource needs under these future conditions was projected both with and without additional future adaptation strategies in place. System reliability metrics were developed in order to define system vulnerabilities, the conditions that lead to those vulnerabilities, and sign posts to indicate if the system is approaching a vulnerable state. Options and strategies that reduce these vulnerabilities and improve system reliability were explored through the development of portfolios. Four portfolios, each with different management strategies, were analyzed to assess their effectiveness at

  8. Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies & Management 7(2 ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Osondu

    2013-11-01

    Nov 1, 2013 ... Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies & Management 7(2): 153 – 159, 2014. ISSN:1998-0507 ... and food processing industries, battery, cement, milling and ..... risks, but can provide basic information on source of water ...

  9. Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies & Management 7(2 ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Osondu

    2013-03-27

    Mar 27, 2013 ... Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies & Management 7(2): 108 – 116, 2014. ISSN:1998- ... cement factory on a sample of 126 tenements from 11 residential settlements within Ewekoro local .... health risk but aesthetics.

  10. Environmental Regulation and Food Safety: Studies of Protection ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2006-01-01

    Jan 1, 2006 ... Book cover Environmental Regulation and Food Safety: Studies of ... are sometimes perceived in developing countries as nontariff barriers to trade. ... In some cases, products that had initially been refused access to a ...

  11. Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies & Management 7(3 ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Osondu

    2014-03-24

    Mar 24, 2014 ... by inbreeding and a weakened gene pool as the breeders tried to cross breed Asiatic and .... Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies and Management Vol. 7 no.3 2014 ..... hand gloves and face masks. This close contact.

  12. Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies & Management 7(3 ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Osondu

    2014-04-23

    Apr 23, 2014 ... Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies & Management 7(3): 289 – 297, 2014. ... heart, blood vessels and nervous system, Iron may facilitate growth of certain pathogenic .... result from incineration of metal scrap, use of.

  13. Competitiveness Implications of Environmental Regulations: Case Studies (1992- 1997)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This collection of reports is part of a series of case studies designed to examine Michael Porter’s hypothesis that innovative companies responding to environmental regulation can create competitive advantage through lower costs or higher sales.

  14. Page 1 242 Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    USER

    2015-03-17

    Mar 17, 2015 ... Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies & Management 8(3): 242 – 251, 2015. .... Central Kenya hardly used innovations on botanical pesticides. ..... science of the pests. Similarly ... Management Project in Western. Kenya ...

  15. Uncertainty Communication. Issues and good practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kloprogge, P.; Van der Sluijs, J.; Wardekker, A.

    2007-12-01

    In 2003 the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP) published the RIVM/MNP Guidance for Uncertainty Assessment and Communication. The Guidance assists in dealing with uncertainty in environmental assessments. Dealing with uncertainty is essential because assessment results regarding complex environmental issues are of limited value if the uncertainties have not been taken into account adequately. A careful analysis of uncertainties in an environmental assessment is required, but even more important is the effective communication of these uncertainties in the presentation of assessment results. The Guidance yields rich and differentiated insights in uncertainty, but the relevance of this uncertainty information may vary across audiences and uses of assessment results. Therefore, the reporting of uncertainties is one of the six key issues that is addressed in the Guidance. In practice, users of the Guidance felt a need for more practical assistance in the reporting of uncertainty information. This report explores the issue of uncertainty communication in more detail, and contains more detailed guidance on the communication of uncertainty. In order to make this a 'stand alone' document several questions that are mentioned in the detailed Guidance have been repeated here. This document thus has some overlap with the detailed Guidance. Part 1 gives a general introduction to the issue of communicating uncertainty information. It offers guidelines for (fine)tuning the communication to the intended audiences and context of a report, discusses how readers of a report tend to handle uncertainty information, and ends with a list of criteria that uncertainty communication needs to meet to increase its effectiveness. Part 2 helps writers to analyze the context in which communication takes place, and helps to map the audiences, and their information needs. It further helps to reflect upon anticipated uses and possible impacts of the uncertainty information on the

  16. Pharmacological Fingerprints of Contextual Uncertainty.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louise Marshall

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Successful interaction with the environment requires flexible updating of our beliefs about the world. By estimating the likelihood of future events, it is possible to prepare appropriate actions in advance and execute fast, accurate motor responses. According to theoretica