WorldWideScience

Sample records for environmental screening model

  1. Using model-based screening to help discover unknown environmental contaminants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLachlan, Michael S; Kierkegaard, Amelie; Radke, Michael; Sobek, Anna; Malmvärn, Anna; Alsberg, Tomas; Arnot, Jon A; Brown, Trevor N; Wania, Frank; Breivik, Knut; Xu, Shihe

    2014-07-01

    Of the tens of thousands of chemicals in use, only a small fraction have been analyzed in environmental samples. To effectively identify environmental contaminants, methods to prioritize chemicals for analytical method development are required. We used a high-throughput model of chemical emissions, fate, and bioaccumulation to identify chemicals likely to have high concentrations in specific environmental media, and we prioritized these for target analysis. This model-based screening was applied to 215 organosilicon chemicals culled from industrial chemical production statistics. The model-based screening prioritized several recognized organosilicon contaminants and generated hypotheses leading to the selection of three chemicals that have not previously been identified as potential environmental contaminants for target analysis. Trace analytical methods were developed, and the chemicals were analyzed in air, sewage sludge, and sediment. All three substances were found to be environmental contaminants. Phenyl-tris(trimethylsiloxy)silane was present in all samples analyzed, with concentrations of ∼50 pg m(-3) in Stockholm air and ∼0.5 ng g(-1) dw in sediment from the Stockholm archipelago. Tris(trifluoropropyl)trimethyl-cyclotrisiloxane and tetrakis(trifluoropropyl)tetramethyl-cyclotetrasiloxane were found in sediments from Lake Mjøsa at ∼1 ng g(-1) dw. The discovery of three novel environmental contaminants shows that models can be useful for prioritizing chemicals for exploratory assessment.

  2. Risk-Screening Environmental Indicators (RSEI)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — EPA’s Risk-Screening Environmental Indicators (RSEI) is a geographically-based model that helps policy makers and communities explore data on releases of toxic...

  3. Cosmic web and environmental dependence of screening: Vainshtein vs. chameleon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Falck, Bridget; Koyama, Kazuya; Zhao, Gong-Bo, E-mail: bridget.falck@port.ac.uk, E-mail: kazuya.koyama@port.ac.uk, E-mail: gong-bo.zhao@port.ac.uk [Institute of Cosmology and Gravitation, University of Portsmouth, Burnaby Road, Portsmouth (United Kingdom)

    2015-07-01

    Theories which modify general relativity to explain the accelerated expansion of the Universe often use screening mechanisms to satisfy constraints on Solar System scales. We investigate the effects of the cosmic web and the local environmental density of dark matter halos on the screening properties of the Vainshtein and chameleon screening mechanisms. We compare the cosmic web morphology of dark matter particles, mass functions of dark matter halos, mass and radial dependence of screening, velocity dispersions and peculiar velocities, and environmental dependence of screening mechanisms in f(R) and nDGP models. Using the ORIGAMI cosmic web identification routine we find that the Vainshtein mechanism depends on the cosmic web morphology of dark matter particles, since these are defined according to the dimensionality of their collapse, while the chameleon mechanism shows no morphology dependence. The chameleon screening of halos and their velocity dispersions depend on halo mass, and small halos and subhalos can be environmentally screened in the chameleon mechanism. On the other hand, the screening of halos in the Vainshtein mechanism does not depend on mass nor environment, and their velocity dispersions are suppressed. The peculiar velocities of halos in the Vainshtein mechanism are enhanced because screened objects can still feel the fifth force generated by external fields, while peculiar velocities of chameleon halos are suppressed when the halo centers are screened.

  4. Cosmic web and environmental dependence of screening: Vainshtein vs. chameleon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Falck, Bridget; Koyama, Kazuya; Zhao, Gong-Bo

    2015-01-01

    Theories which modify general relativity to explain the accelerated expansion of the Universe often use screening mechanisms to satisfy constraints on Solar System scales. We investigate the effects of the cosmic web and the local environmental density of dark matter halos on the screening properties of the Vainshtein and chameleon screening mechanisms. We compare the cosmic web morphology of dark matter particles, mass functions of dark matter halos, mass and radial dependence of screening, velocity dispersions and peculiar velocities, and environmental dependence of screening mechanisms in f(R) and nDGP models. Using the ORIGAMI cosmic web identification routine we find that the Vainshtein mechanism depends on the cosmic web morphology of dark matter particles, since these are defined according to the dimensionality of their collapse, while the chameleon mechanism shows no morphology dependence. The chameleon screening of halos and their velocity dispersions depend on halo mass, and small halos and subhalos can be environmentally screened in the chameleon mechanism. On the other hand, the screening of halos in the Vainshtein mechanism does not depend on mass nor environment, and their velocity dispersions are suppressed. The peculiar velocities of halos in the Vainshtein mechanism are enhanced because screened objects can still feel the fifth force generated by external fields, while peculiar velocities of chameleon halos are suppressed when the halo centers are screened

  5. OBGYN screening for environmental exposures: A call for action

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allshouse, A. A.; Jungheim, E.; Powell, T. L.; Jansson, T.; Polotsky, A. J.

    2018-01-01

    Background Prenatal exposures have known adverse effects on maternal and neonatal outcomes. Professional societies recommend routine screening for environmental, occupational, and dietary exposures to reduce exposures and their associated sequelae. Objective Our objective was to determine the frequency of environmental exposure screening by obstetricians and gynecologists (OBGYNs) at initial patient visits. Study design Practicing OBGYNs were approached at the University of Colorado and by social media. The survey instrument queried demographics, environmental literacy, and screening practices. Statistical analysis was performed using Chi-square and two-sample t-test. Results We received 312 online survey responses (response rate of 12%). Responding OBGYNs were predominantly female (96%), board-certified (78%), generalists (65%) with a mean age of 37.1 years. Fewer than half of physicians screened for the following factors: occupational exposures, environmental chemicals, air pollution, pesticide use, personal care products, household cleaners, water source, use of plastics for food storage, and lead and mercury exposure. Eighty five percent of respondents reported that they did not feel comfortable obtaining an environmental history and 58% respondents reported that they performed no regular screening of environmental exposures. A higher frequency of screening was associated with > 4 years of practice (p = 0.001), and having read the environmental committee opinion (p = <0.001). Conclusion The majority of OBGYNs did not incorporate screening for known environmental exposures into routine practice. Reading the environmental committee opinions was strongly and significantly associated with a higher rate of screening. Improving physician comfort in counseling patients may enhance screening for exposures that affect reproductive health. PMID:29768418

  6. OBGYN screening for environmental exposures: A call for action.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grindler, N M; Allshouse, A A; Jungheim, E; Powell, T L; Jansson, T; Polotsky, A J

    2018-01-01

    Prenatal exposures have known adverse effects on maternal and neonatal outcomes. Professional societies recommend routine screening for environmental, occupational, and dietary exposures to reduce exposures and their associated sequelae. Our objective was to determine the frequency of environmental exposure screening by obstetricians and gynecologists (OBGYNs) at initial patient visits. Practicing OBGYNs were approached at the University of Colorado and by social media. The survey instrument queried demographics, environmental literacy, and screening practices. Statistical analysis was performed using Chi-square and two-sample t-test. We received 312 online survey responses (response rate of 12%). Responding OBGYNs were predominantly female (96%), board-certified (78%), generalists (65%) with a mean age of 37.1 years. Fewer than half of physicians screened for the following factors: occupational exposures, environmental chemicals, air pollution, pesticide use, personal care products, household cleaners, water source, use of plastics for food storage, and lead and mercury exposure. Eighty five percent of respondents reported that they did not feel comfortable obtaining an environmental history and 58% respondents reported that they performed no regular screening of environmental exposures. A higher frequency of screening was associated with > 4 years of practice (p = 0.001), and having read the environmental committee opinion (p = counseling patients may enhance screening for exposures that affect reproductive health.

  7. Environmental impact assessment screening tool

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-05-01

    An environmental assessment and impact planning software, SCREENER, was tested at a pilot project at the Cameco site (Port Hope). SCREENER was used to screen the impacts of a new construction project in accordance with the process and reporting requirements laid out in the Canadian Environmental Assessment Act. The software test concentrated on the activities that are directly involved with the structure construction and site preparation activities. In addition, a two and one half day training course was given to three AECB staff using the test case as a hands on example. The conclusion of this project is that an automated tool such as SCREENER (or Calyx, the new generation of environmental assessment tools from ESSA Software Ltd.), will help the AECB to standardize the approach to environmental assessment, assist in project planning, and save resources in the screening process. The new approach could allow to allocate AECB limited resources to the detailed assessments required for maximum impact activities. 2 figs. 7 refs.

  8. Environmental impact assessment screening tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-05-01

    An environmental assessment and impact planning software, SCREENER, was tested at a pilot project at the Cameco site (Port Hope). SCREENER was used to screen the impacts of a new construction project in accordance with the process and reporting requirements laid out in the Canadian Environmental Assessment Act. The software test concentrated on the activities that are directly involved with the structure construction and site preparation activities. In addition, a two and one half day training course was given to three AECB staff using the test case as a hands on example. The conclusion of this project is that an automated tool such as SCREENER (or Calyx, the new generation of environmental assessment tools from ESSA Software Ltd.), will help the AECB to standardize the approach to environmental assessment, assist in project planning, and save resources in the screening process. The new approach could allow to allocate AECB limited resources to the detailed assessments required for maximum impact activities

  9. Reevaluation of 1999 Health-Based Environmental Screening Levels (HBESLs) for Chemical Warfare Agents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Watson, Annetta Paule [ORNL; Dolislager, Fredrick G [ORNL

    2007-05-01

    This report evaluates whether new information and updated scientific models require that changes be made to previously published health-based environmental soil screening levels (HBESLs) and associated environmental fate/breakdown information for chemical warfare agents (USACHPPM 1999). Specifically, the present evaluation describes and compares changes that have been made since 1999 to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) risk assessment models, EPA exposure assumptions, as well as to specific chemical warfare agent parameters (e.g., toxicity values). Comparison was made between screening value estimates recalculated with current assumptions and earlier health-based environmental screening levels presented in 1999. The chemical warfare agents evaluated include the G-series and VX nerve agents and the vesicants sulfur mustard (agent HD) and Lewisite (agent L). In addition, key degradation products of these agents were also evaluated. Study findings indicate that the combined effect of updates and/or changes to EPA risk models, EPA default exposure parameters, and certain chemical warfare agent toxicity criteria does not result in significant alteration to the USACHPPM (1999) health-based environmental screening level estimates for the G-series and VX nerve agents or the vesicant agents HD and L. Given that EPA's final position on separate Tier 1 screening levels for indoor and outdoor worker screening assessments has not yet been released as of May 2007, the study authors find that the 1999 screening level estimates (see Table ES.1) are still appropriate and protective for screening residential as well as nonresidential sites. As such, risk management decisions made on the basis of USACHPPM (1999) recommendations do not require reconsideration. While the 1999 HBESL values are appropriate for continued use as general screening criteria, the updated '2007' estimates (presented below) that follow the new EPA protocols currently under development

  10. The Center for Environmental Technology Innovative Technology Screening Process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bertrand, C.M.

    1995-02-01

    The Center for Environmental Technology's (CET) mission is to provide a fully integrated system for accelerated evaluation, development, commercialization, and public acceptance of creative environmental solutions which match the foremost demands in today's environmentally sensitive world. In short, CET will create a means to provide quick, effective solutions for environmental needs. To meet this mission objective, CET has created a unique and innovative approach to eliminating the usual barriers in developing and testing environmental technologies. The approach paves the way for these emerging, cutting-edge technologies by coordinating environmental restoration and waste management activities of industry, universities, and the government to: efficiently and effectively transfer technology to these users, provide market-driven, cost-effective technology programs to the public and DOE, and aid in developing innovative ideas by initiating efforts between DOE facilities and private industry. The central part to this mission is selecting and evaluating specific innovative technologies for demonstration and application at United States Department of Energy (DOE) installations. The methodology and criteria used for this selection, which is called the CET Innovative Technology Screening Process, is the subject of this paper. The selection criteria used for the screening process were modeled after other DOE technology transfer programs and were further developed by CET's Technology Screening and Evaluation Board (TSEB). The process benefits both CET and the proposing vendors by providing objective selection procedures based on predefined criteria. The selection process ensures a rapid response to proposing vendors, all technologies will have the opportunity to enter the selection process, and all technologies are evaluated on the same scale and with identical criteria

  11. Greening the Screen: An Environmental Challenge

    OpenAIRE

    Ekin Gündüz Özdemirci

    2016-01-01

    Environmental themes and representations on screen are examined as a part of environmental social studies and can be considered a way of creating awareness of environmental issues. However, how often do we consider the environmental impact of a film or television shoot as an industrial process? In this article, I examine the sustainability practices in the motion picture industry and challenges to that by focusing on the British film and television industry as a case study. Using the intervie...

  12. A screening model for depleted uranium testing using environmental radiation monitoring data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dunfrund, F.L.; Ebinger, M.H.; Hansen, W.R.

    1996-01-01

    Information from an ecological risk assessment of depleted uranium test areas at Yuma Proving Ground (YPG) was used to update the required environmental radiation monitoring (ERM) plan. Data to be collected for the ERM can also be used to evaluate the potential for adverse radiological and toxicological effects to terrestrial reptiles and mammals in the affected areas. We developed a spreadsheet-based screening model that incorporates the ERM data and associated uncertainties. The purpose of the model is to provide a conservative estimate of radiological exposure of terrestrial, biota to DU using the ERM data. The uncertainty in the estimate is also predicted so that the variation in the radiological exposure can be used in assessing potential adverse effects from DU testing. Toxicological effects are evaluated as well as radiological effects in the same program using the same data. Our presentation shows an example data set, model calculations, and the report of expected radiation dose rates and probable kidney burdens of select mammals and reptiles. The model can also be used in an inverse mode to calculate the soil concentration required to give either a radiological dose that would produce a potential adverse effect such as fatal cancer or a toxicological dose that would result in nephrotoxic effects in mammals

  13. An in vitro model for screening estrogen activity of environmental samples after metabolism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chahbane, N.; Schramm, K.W. [GSF - Forschungszentrum fuer Umwelt und Gesundheit Neuherberg GmbH, Oberschleissheim (Germany). Inst. fuer Oekologische Chemie; Kettrup, A. [Technische Univ. Muenchen, Freising (Germany). Lehrstuhl fuer Oekologische Chemie

    2004-09-15

    For a few years, yeast estrogen assay (YES) was accepted as a reliable and economic model for screening of environmental estrogens. Though the chemicals directly act with estrogen receptor (ER) can be filtered out by this model, there are still chemicals act with ER only after metabolism and some chemicals eliminate their estrogen activities after metabolism. That is to say, their metabolites exert or have stronger estrogen activities than themselves, which can be called bio-activation. In this case, for the lack of the metabolism enzyme system as human and other animals, only the assay with recombinant yeast cells is insufficient. So, it is necessary to combine the YES with metabolism procedure to evaluate the estrogen activities of these chemicals. The most common method used currently for in vitro metabolic activation in mutagenicity testing and also be applied to the estrogen screening field is S-9 mixture. Also, there is an attempt to develop a chemical model for cytochrome P450 as a bio-mimetic metabolic activation system. All these methods can be used as in vitro models for metabolism. Compare with these models, using whole H4II E cells for metabolism is an alternative and with superiorities. It has the excellence of short experiment period as all other in vitro models, but is much more close to the real surroundings as in vivo. Furthermore, the activity of 7-ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase (EROD) can be easily measured during the whole incubation period for us to discuss the metabolic activities in a quantitative foundation, not only in qualitative. Methoxychlor is one of the chemicals with bio-activation ability. When directly used in the YES, it shows weak estrogen activity. But a main metabolite of methoxychlor, 2,2-bis (p-hydroxyphenyl) - 1,1,1-trichloroethane (HPTE) is a known estrogen mimic. For the long time using methoxychlor as a pesticide and its clear background, it is an ideal chemical to establish this in vitro system.

  14. Greening the Screen: An Environmental Challenge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ekin Gündüz Özdemirci

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Environmental themes and representations on screen are examined as a part of environmental social studies and can be considered a way of creating awareness of environmental issues. However, how often do we consider the environmental impact of a film or television shoot as an industrial process? In this article, I examine the sustainability practices in the motion picture industry and challenges to that by focusing on the British film and television industry as a case study. Using the interviews with industry representatives and some case studies, I discuss the possibilities of creating a change in behavior in the film industry, not only in terms of embedding green measures but also reconstituting industrial mechanisms on behalf of environmental sustainability.

  15. Are screening processes effective instruments and what are the environmental benefits?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Eskild Holm; Christensen, Per; Kørnøv, Lone

    2003-01-01

    Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA)is the process by which the effects that proposed projects are likely to have with respect to a number of environmental criteria is evaluated. Screening is an activity carried out in advance of an EIA to determine whether, in fact, it is necessary to undertake...... a full assessment.The paper discuss the extent of changes due to the screening process, and ask questions like what kind of environmental considerations do the changes reflect? And are they in line with EIA's holistic environmental approach?...

  16. Disposable Screen Printed Electrochemical Sensors: Tools for Environmental Monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akhtar Hayat

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Screen printing technology is a widely used technique for the fabrication of electrochemical sensors. This methodology is likely to underpin the progressive drive towards miniaturized, sensitive and portable devices, and has already established its route from “lab-to-market” for a plethora of sensors. The application of these sensors for analysis of environmental samples has been the major focus of research in this field. As a consequence, this work will focus on recent important advances in the design and fabrication of disposable screen printed sensors for the electrochemical detection of environmental contaminants. Special emphasis is given on sensor fabrication methodology, operating details and performance characteristics for environmental applications.

  17. SCREENING OF ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF POLLUTION WITH THE QGIS PLUGIN ENVIFATE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Geri

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Public and academic interest in environmental pollution caused by toxic substances and other sources, like noise, is constantly raising. To protect public health and ecosystems it is necessary to maintain the concentrations of pollutants below a safety threshold. In this context the development of models able to assess environmental pollution impact has been identified as a priority for future research. Scientific community has therefore produced many predictive models in the field. The vast majority of them needs to be run by specialists with a deep technical knowledge of the modeled phenomena in order to process the data and understand the results and it is not feasible to use this models for simple prescreening activities. Planners, evaluators and technical operators need reliable, usable and simple tools in order to carry out screening analysis of impact assessment. The ENVIFATE software is currently under development by the Department of Civil, environmental and mechanical engineering of the University of Trento, Italy, in the frame of a project funded by the Italian Veneto Region with the aim to make available to nonspecialists screening analysis to assess the risks of a set of possible environmental pollution sources in protected areas. The development of ENVIFATE follows these basic requirements: i Open-Source ii multiplatform iii user friendly iv GIS oriented. In order to respect these principles we have chosen to develop a plugin of QGIS, using python as a development language and creating a module for each environmental compartment analyzed: rivers, lakes, atmospheric dispersion, dispersion in groundwater and noise. The plugin architecture is composed of a series of core functions characterized by command line interfaces that can be called from third-party applications (such as Grass GIS, connectable in custom data flows and with a high level of modularity and scalability. The base of the different models are highly tested and

  18. In Vitro Screening of Environmental Chemicals for Targeted Testing Prioritization: The ToxCast Project

    OpenAIRE

    Judson, Richard S.; Houck, Keith A.; Kavlock, Robert J.; Knudsen, Thomas B.; Martin, Matthew T.; Mortensen, Holly M.; Reif, David M.; Rotroff, Daniel M.; Shah, Imran; Richard, Ann M.; Dix, David J.

    2009-01-01

    Background Chemical toxicity testing is being transformed by advances in biology and computer modeling, concerns over animal use, and the thousands of environmental chemicals lacking toxicity data. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency?s ToxCast program aims to address these concerns by screening and prioritizing chemicals for potential human toxicity using in vitro assays and in silico approaches. Objectives This project aims to evaluate the use of in vitro assays for understanding the ty...

  19. Retooling CalEnviroScreen: Cumulative Pollution Burden and Race-Based Environmental Health Vulnerabilities in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-01

    The California Community Environmental Health Screening Tool (CalEnviroScreen) advances research and policy pertaining to environmental health vulnerability. However, CalEnviroScreen departs from its historical foundations and comparable screening tools by no longer considering racial status as an indicator of environmental health vulnerability and predictor of cumulative pollution burden. This study used conceptual frameworks and analytical techniques from environmental health and inequality literature to address the limitations of CalEnviroScreen, especially its inattention to race-based environmental health vulnerabilities. It developed an adjusted measure of cumulative pollution burden from the CalEnviroScreen 2.0 data that facilitates multivariate analyses of the effect of neighborhood racial composition on cumulative pollution burden, net of other indicators of population vulnerability, traffic density, industrial zoning, and local and regional clustering of pollution burden. Principal component analyses produced three new measures of population vulnerability, including Latina/o cumulative disadvantage that represents the spatial concentration of Latinas/os, economic disadvantage, limited English-speaking ability, and health vulnerability. Spatial error regression analyses demonstrated that concentrations of Latinas/os, followed by Latina/o cumulative disadvantage, are the strongest demographic determinants of adjusted cumulative pollution burden. Findings have implications for research and policy pertaining to cumulative impacts and race-based environmental health vulnerabilities within and beyond California. PMID:29659481

  20. Retooling CalEnviroScreen: Cumulative Pollution Burden and Race-Based Environmental Health Vulnerabilities in California

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raoul S. Liévanos

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The California Community Environmental Health Screening Tool (CalEnviroScreen advances research and policy pertaining to environmental health vulnerability. However, CalEnviroScreen departs from its historical foundations and comparable screening tools by no longer considering racial status as an indicator of environmental health vulnerability and predictor of cumulative pollution burden. This study used conceptual frameworks and analytical techniques from environmental health and inequality literature to address the limitations of CalEnviroScreen, especially its inattention to race-based environmental health vulnerabilities. It developed an adjusted measure of cumulative pollution burden from the CalEnviroScreen 2.0 data that facilitates multivariate analyses of the effect of neighborhood racial composition on cumulative pollution burden, net of other indicators of population vulnerability, traffic density, industrial zoning, and local and regional clustering of pollution burden. Principal component analyses produced three new measures of population vulnerability, including Latina/o cumulative disadvantage that represents the spatial concentration of Latinas/os, economic disadvantage, limited English-speaking ability, and health vulnerability. Spatial error regression analyses demonstrated that concentrations of Latinas/os, followed by Latina/o cumulative disadvantage, are the strongest demographic determinants of adjusted cumulative pollution burden. Findings have implications for research and policy pertaining to cumulative impacts and race-based environmental health vulnerabilities within and beyond California.

  1. Retooling CalEnviroScreen: Cumulative Pollution Burden and Race-Based Environmental Health Vulnerabilities in California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liévanos, Raoul S

    2018-04-16

    The California Community Environmental Health Screening Tool (CalEnviroScreen) advances research and policy pertaining to environmental health vulnerability. However, CalEnviroScreen departs from its historical foundations and comparable screening tools by no longer considering racial status as an indicator of environmental health vulnerability and predictor of cumulative pollution burden. This study used conceptual frameworks and analytical techniques from environmental health and inequality literature to address the limitations of CalEnviroScreen, especially its inattention to race-based environmental health vulnerabilities. It developed an adjusted measure of cumulative pollution burden from the CalEnviroScreen 2.0 data that facilitates multivariate analyses of the effect of neighborhood racial composition on cumulative pollution burden, net of other indicators of population vulnerability, traffic density, industrial zoning, and local and regional clustering of pollution burden. Principal component analyses produced three new measures of population vulnerability, including Latina/o cumulative disadvantage that represents the spatial concentration of Latinas/os, economic disadvantage, limited English-speaking ability, and health vulnerability. Spatial error regression analyses demonstrated that concentrations of Latinas/os, followed by Latina/o cumulative disadvantage, are the strongest demographic determinants of adjusted cumulative pollution burden. Findings have implications for research and policy pertaining to cumulative impacts and race-based environmental health vulnerabilities within and beyond California.

  2. Life-Stage Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK) Model Applications to Screen Environmental Hazards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    This presentation discusses methods used to extrapolate from in vitro high-throughput screening (HTS) toxicity data for an endocrine pathway to in vivo for early life stages in humans, and the use of a life stage PBPK model to address rapidly changing physiological parameters. A...

  3. Environmental fate and transport of chemical signatures from buried landmines -- Screening model formulation and initial simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Phelan, J.M.; Webb, S.W.

    1997-06-01

    The fate and transport of chemical signature molecules that emanate from buried landmines is strongly influenced by physical chemical properties and by environmental conditions of the specific chemical compounds. Published data have been evaluated as the input parameters that are used in the simulation of the fate and transport processes. A one-dimensional model developed for screening agricultural pesticides was modified and used to simulate the appearance of a surface flux above a buried landmine, estimate the subsurface total concentration, and show the phase specific concentrations at the ground surface. The physical chemical properties of TNT cause a majority of the mass released to the soil system to be bound to the solid phase soil particles. The majority of the transport occurs in the liquid phase with diffusion and evaporation driven advection of soil water as the primary mechanisms for the flux to the ground surface. The simulations provided herein should only be used for initial conceptual designs of chemical pre-concentration subsystems or complete detection systems. The physical processes modeled required necessary simplifying assumptions to allow for analytical solutions. Emerging numerical simulation tools will soon be available that should provide more realistic estimates that can be used to predict the success of landmine chemical detection surveys based on knowledge of the chemical and soil properties, and environmental conditions where the mines are buried. Additional measurements of the chemical properties in soils are also needed before a fully predictive approach can be confidently applied.

  4. Screening of IAEA environmental samples for fissile material content

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hembree, Doyle M. Jr.; Carter, Joel A.; Devault, Gerald L.; Whitaker, J. Michael; Glasgow, David

    2001-01-01

    Full text: Analysis of environmental samples for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Strengthened Safeguards Systems program requires that stringent measures be taken to control contamination. To facilitate contamination control, it is extremely useful to have some estimate of the fissile content of a given sample prior to beginning sample preparation and analysis. This is particularly true for laboratories that employ clean rooms during sample preparation. A review of the analytical results for samples submitted between January 1, 1999 and September 1, 2000 revealed that the total uranium content values ranged from 0.2 to greater than 500,000 ng/sample. Poor estimates of the uranium or plutonium content in the samples have caused some of the laboratories in the IAEA Network of Analytical Laboratories (NWAL) to experience clean laboratory contamination, sample cross contamination, and non-ideal uranium spike additions. This has led to significant increases in analysis costs (e.g., recertification of clean rooms after removing contamination, and rerunning samples) and degradation in data quality. A number of methods have been proposed for screening environmental samples for fissile material content, including gamma spectrometry, x-ray fluorescence, kinetic phosphorimetry (KPA), and inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). Gamma spectrometry and x-ray fluorescence are suitable for screening samples with microgram or greater quantities of uranium. ICP-MS and KPA are used successfully in some DOE NWAL laboratories to screen environmental samples. A neutron activation analysis (NAA) method that offers numerous advantages over other screening techniques for environmental samples has recently been proposed. Fissile materials such as 239 Pu and 235 U can be made to undergo fission in the intense neutron field to which they are exposed during neutron activation analysis (NAA). Some of the fission products emit neutrons referred to as 'delayed

  5. Using environmental tracers in modeling flow in a complex shallow aquifer system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Troldborg, Lars; Jensen, Karsten Høgh; Engesgaard, Peter Knudegaard

    2008-01-01

    shapes and sizes without being similar to the assumed age distributions used in the analytical approach. The shape of age distribution to some extent depends on sampling size and on whether the system is modeled in a transient or in a steady state, but shape and size were largely driven......Using environmental tracers in groundwater dating partly relies on the assumption that groundwater age distribution can be described analytically. To investigate the applicability of age dating in complex multiaquifer systems, a methodology for simulating well specific groundwater age distribution...... was developed. Using a groundwater model and particle tracking we modeled age distributions at screen locations. By enveloping modeled age distributions and estimated recharge concentrations, environmental tracer breakthroughs were simulated for specific screens. Simulated age distributions are of irregular...

  6. Environmental concern-based site screening of carbon dioxide geological storage in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Bofeng; Li, Qi; Liu, Guizhen; Liu, Lancui; Jin, Taotao; Shi, Hui

    2017-08-08

    Environmental impacts and risks related to carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) capture and storage (CCS) projects may have direct effects on the decision-making process during CCS site selection. This paper proposes a novel method of environmental optimization for CCS site selection using China's ecological red line approach. Moreover, this paper established a GIS based spatial analysis model of environmental optimization during CCS site selection by a large database. The comprehensive data coverage of environmental elements and fine 1 km spatial resolution were used in the database. The quartile method was used for value assignment for specific indicators including the prohibited index and restricted index. The screening results show that areas classified as having high environmental suitability (classes III and IV) in China account for 620,800 km 2 and 156,600 km 2 , respectively, and are mainly distributed in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai and Xinjiang. The environmental suitability class IV areas of Bayingol Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture, Hotan Prefecture, Aksu Prefecture, Hulunbuir, Xilingol League and other prefecture-level regions not only cover large land areas, but also form a continuous area in the three provincial-level administrative units. This study may benefit the national macro-strategic deployment and implementation of CCS spatial layout and environmental management in China.

  7. School Locations and Traffic Emissions — Environmental (InJustice Findings Using a New Screening Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philine Gaffron

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available It has been shown that the location of schools near heavily trafficked roads can have detrimental effects on the health of children attending those schools. It is therefore desirable to screen both existing school locations and potential new school sites to assess either the need for remedial measures or suitability for the intended use. Current screening tools and public guidance on school siting are either too coarse in their spatial resolution for assessing individual sites or are highly resource intensive in their execution (e.g., through dispersion modeling. We propose a new method to help bridge the gap between these two approaches. Using this method, we also examine the public K-12 schools in the Sacramento Area Council of Governments Region, California (USA from an environmental justice perspective. We find that PM2.5 emissions from road traffic affecting a school site are significantly positively correlated with the following metrics: percent share of Black, Hispanic and multi-ethnic students, percent share of students eligible for subsidized meals. The emissions metric correlates negatively with the schools’ Academic Performance Index, the share of White students and average parental education levels. Our PM2.5 metric also correlates with the traffic related, census tract level screening indicators from the California Communities Environmental Health Screening Tool and the tool’s tract level rate of asthma related emergency department visits.

  8. Environmental screening report : Harrow Wind Farm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-04-01

    AIM PowerGen Corporation is proposing to develop a wind energy project located on the northern shores of Lake Erie, Ontario called the Harrow Wind Farm. The wind energy project would consist of 24 wind turbines having a total capacity of 39.6 megawatts and comprise four small projects of six wind turbines each to be submitted to the standard offer program. The purpose of the project is to supply clean energy to the Ontario energy system using state-of-the-art wind energy technology. This report presented an environmental screening of the Harrow Wind Farm, as required by the Canadian Environmental Assessment Act and the Ontario Environmental Assessment Act. The report provided a detailed description of the Harrow Wind Farm location, optimization process and schedule as well as a detailed characterization of the natural and socio-economic environment. The report also provided a description of the regulatory agencies, as well as public and First Nations consultation activities. The effects on natural and socio-economic components were evaluated and an accidents and malfunction plan was also presented. Last, the report included a discussion of the effects of the environment on the Harrow Wind Farm; a summary of mitigation, impact management, and monitoring commitments of AIM PowerGen; and an overview of environmental advantages and disadvantages. It was concluded that the project design has benefited from several consultations with local authorities, lot owners and local residents, as well as federal and provincial agencies to ensure that environmental and social impacts are minimized while maximizing energy generation. refs., tabs., figs

  9. Modeling a point-source release of 1,1,1-trichloroethane using EPA's SCREEN model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henriques, W.D.; Dixon, K.R.

    1994-01-01

    Using data from the Environmental Protection Agency's Toxic Release Inventory 1988 (EPA TRI88), pollutant concentration estimates were modeled for a point source air release of 1,1,1-trichloroethane at the Savannah River Plant located in Aiken, South Carolina. Estimates were calculating using the EPA's SCREEN model utilizing typical meteorological conditions to determine maximum impact of the plume under different mixing conditions for locations within 100 meters of the stack. Input data for the SCREEN model were then manipulated to simulate the impact of the release under urban conditions (for the purpose of assessing future landuse considerations) and under flare release options to determine if these parameters lessen or increase the probability of human or wildlife exposure to significant concentrations. The results were then compared to EPA reference concentrations (RfC) in order to assess the size of the buffer around the stack which may potentially have levels that exceed this level of safety

  10. Generic Screening Models for Assessing Exposures to the Public and ICRP Reference Animals and Plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yankovich, Tamara L.; Proehl, Gerhard; Telleria, Diego [International Atomic Energy Agency, P.O. Box 100, 1400 Vienna (Austria); Berkovskyy, Volodymyr [Ukrainian Radiation Protection Institute (RPI), 53, Melnikova Street, 04050, Kiev (Ukraine)

    2014-07-01

    With the update of the IAEA Fundamental Safety Principles (SF-1) stating the objective to protect people and the environment from harmful effects of ionizing radiation, it has been necessary to update International Basic Safety Standards (BSS) on Radiation Protection and Safety of Radiation Sources and the underlying safety guides and technical documents to provide guidance on how this could be achieved in practice. The current paper provides an update on the status and plans to revise the IAEA Safety Report 'Generic Models for Use in Assessing the Impact of Discharges of Radioactive Substances to the Environment' (SRS 19) that was published in 2001. The models of SRS 19 (2001), which was focused on assessment of exposures to the public, is being expanded into three volumes that provide methodologies for screening assessments for the public, as well as for flora and fauna. The revised SRS 19 guide will ultimately facilitate the application of screening models for different levels of assessment using updated parameter values from database that have been developed as part of the IAEA's EMRAS (Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety) and EMRAS II international model validation programmes. The scope of the revised SRS 19 covers prospective screening assessment of doses to the representative person and Reference Animals and Plants (RAPs), and will provide simple and robust assessment methods for radiological assessment related to planning and design, applying a graded approach. Tabulated screening coefficients and environmental dilution factors will be included for 825 radionuclides. The screening coefficients are developed assuming equilibrium conditions; they can be used to assess radiological impacts arising from routine discharges of radionuclides to terrestrial and aquatic receptors for planned exposure situations. Volumes 1 and 2 of the revised SRS 19 are at an advanced stage of completion and are focused on 'Screening Assessment of Public

  11. Screening for Prediabetes Using Machine Learning Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soo Beom Choi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The global prevalence of diabetes is rapidly increasing. Studies support the necessity of screening and interventions for prediabetes, which could result in serious complications and diabetes. This study aimed at developing an intelligence-based screening model for prediabetes. Data from the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES were used, excluding subjects with diabetes. The KNHANES 2010 data (n=4685 were used for training and internal validation, while data from KNHANES 2011 (n=4566 were used for external validation. We developed two models to screen for prediabetes using an artificial neural network (ANN and support vector machine (SVM and performed a systematic evaluation of the models using internal and external validation. We compared the performance of our models with that of a screening score model based on logistic regression analysis for prediabetes that had been developed previously. The SVM model showed the areas under the curve of 0.731 in the external datasets, which is higher than those of the ANN model (0.729 and the screening score model (0.712, respectively. The prescreening methods developed in this study performed better than the screening score model that had been developed previously and may be more effective method for prediabetes screening.

  12. Wind turbine environmental assessment -- Vol 1: Screening document

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-04-01

    The environmental effects of the proposed construction and operation of up to three wind turbines on the Toronto waterfront are evaluated in accordance with the requirements of the Canadian Environmental Assessment Act (CEAA) and Regulations. The nine sections of the report provide background on the environmental assessment and the wind turbine project; provide justification for the project and describes alternative sites and wind turbine technologies; outlines the scope of the project; sketches the biophysical and socio-economic environment; presents an evaluation of the environmental impacts and proposed mitigating measures; describes the public consultation program that was carried out; summarizes the comments received from interested parties; presents the conclusion of the environmental impact assessment; and responds to the public comments received on the draft screening document. Most of the concerns raised involved avoidance reactions by birds, disruption or fragmentation of wildlife, the potential for high kill rate of small nocturnal migrants and young birds, and the effect of noise on breeding birds. The overall recommendation of the consultants is that the project is not likely to cause significant adverse environmental effects and its construction and operations should be authorized. 115 refs., 8 tabs., 2 figs. (14 appendices are in volume 2)

  13. Mechanistic modeling for mammography screening risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bijwaard, Harmen

    2008-01-01

    Full text: Western populations show a very high incidence of breast cancer and in many countries mammography screening programs have been set up for the early detection of these cancers. Through these programs large numbers of women (in the Netherlands, 700.000 per year) are exposed to low but not insignificant X-ray doses. ICRP based risk estimates indicate that the number of breast cancer casualties due to mammography screening can be as high as 50 in the Netherlands per year. The number of lives saved is estimated to be much higher, but for an accurate calculation of the benefits of screening a better estimate of these risks is indispensable. Here it is attempted to better quantify the radiological risks of mammography screening through the application of a biologically based model for breast tumor induction by X-rays. The model is applied to data obtained from the National Institutes of Health in the U.S. These concern epidemiological data of female TB patients who received high X-ray breast doses in the period 1930-1950 through frequent fluoroscopy of their lungs. The mechanistic model that is used to describe the increased breast cancer incidence is based on an earlier study by Moolgavkar et al. (1980), in which the natural background incidence of breast cancer was modeled. The model allows for a more sophisticated extrapolation of risks to the low dose X-ray exposures that are common in mammography screening and to the higher ages that are usually involved. Furthermore, it allows for risk transfer to other (non-western) populations. The results have implications for decisions on the frequency of screening, the number of mammograms taken at each screening, minimum and maximum ages for screening and the transfer to digital equipment. (author)

  14. The Environmental Protection Agency's Community-Focused Exposure and Risk Screening Tool (C-FERST) and its potential use for environmental justice efforts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zartarian, Valerie G; Schultz, Bradley D; Barzyk, Timothy M; Smuts, Marybeth; Hammond, Davyda M; Medina-Vera, Myriam; Geller, Andrew M

    2011-12-01

    Our primary objective was to provide higher quality, more accessible science to address challenges of characterizing local-scale exposures and risks for enhanced community-based assessments and environmental decision-making. After identifying community needs, priority environmental issues, and current tools, we designed and populated the Community-Focused Exposure and Risk Screening Tool (C-FERST) in collaboration with stakeholders, following a set of defined principles, and considered it in the context of environmental justice. C-FERST is a geographic information system and resource access Web tool under development for supporting multimedia community assessments. Community-level exposure and risk research is being conducted to address specific local issues through case studies. C-FERST can be applied to support environmental justice efforts. It incorporates research to develop community-level data and modeled estimates for priority environmental issues, and other relevant information identified by communities. Initial case studies are under way to refine and test the tool to expand its applicability and transferability. Opportunities exist for scientists to address the many research needs in characterizing local cumulative exposures and risks and for community partners to apply and refine C-FERST.

  15. Environmental screening of dark matter haloes in f(R) gravity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Difu; Li, Baojiu; Han, Jiaxin

    2017-07-01

    In certain theories of modified gravity, Solar system constraints on deviations from general relativity (GR) are satisfied by virtue of a so-called screening mechanism, which enables the theory to revert to GR in regions where the matter density is high or the gravitational potential is deep. In the case of chameleon theories, the screening has two contributions - self-screening, which is due to the mass of an object itself, and environmental screening, which is caused by the surrounding matter - which are often entangled, with the second contribution being more crucial for less massive objects. A quantitative understanding of the effect of the environment on the screening can prove critical in observational tests of such theories using systems such as the Local Group and dwarf galaxies, for which the environment may be inferred in various ways. We use the high-resolution liminality simulation of Shi et al. to test the fidelity of different definitions of environment. We find that, although the different ways to define environment in practice do not agree with one another perfectly, they can provide useful guidance, and cross checks about how well a dark matter halo is screened. In addition, the screening of subhaloes in dark matter haloes is primarily determined by the environment, with the subhalo mass playing a minor role, which means that lower resolution simulations where subhaloes are not well resolved can still be useful for understanding the modification of gravity inside subhaloes.

  16. The German cervical cancer screening model: development and validation of a decision-analytic model for cervical cancer screening in Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siebert, Uwe; Sroczynski, Gaby; Hillemanns, Peter; Engel, Jutta; Stabenow, Roland; Stegmaier, Christa; Voigt, Kerstin; Gibis, Bernhard; Hölzel, Dieter; Goldie, Sue J

    2006-04-01

    We sought to develop and validate a decision-analytic model for the natural history of cervical cancer for the German health care context and to apply it to cervical cancer screening. We developed a Markov model for the natural history of cervical cancer and cervical cancer screening in the German health care context. The model reflects current German practice standards for screening, diagnostic follow-up and treatment regarding cervical cancer and its precursors. Data for disease progression and cervical cancer survival were obtained from the literature and German cancer registries. Accuracy of Papanicolaou (Pap) testing was based on meta-analyses. We performed internal and external model validation using observed epidemiological data for unscreened women from different German cancer registries. The model predicts life expectancy, incidence of detected cervical cancer cases, lifetime cervical cancer risks and mortality. The model predicted a lifetime cervical cancer risk of 3.0% and a lifetime cervical cancer mortality of 1.0%, with a peak cancer incidence of 84/100,000 at age 51 years. These results were similar to observed data from German cancer registries, German literature data and results from other international models. Based on our model, annual Pap screening could prevent 98.7% of diagnosed cancer cases and 99.6% of deaths due to cervical cancer in women completely adherent to screening and compliant to treatment. Extending the screening interval from 1 year to 2, 3 or 5 years resulted in reduced screening effectiveness. This model provides a tool for evaluating the long-term effectiveness of different cervical cancer screening tests and strategies.

  17. Global Sensitivity Analysis of Environmental Models: Convergence, Robustness and Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarrazin, Fanny; Pianosi, Francesca; Khorashadi Zadeh, Farkhondeh; Van Griensven, Ann; Wagener, Thorsten

    2015-04-01

    Global Sensitivity Analysis aims to characterize the impact that variations in model input factors (e.g. the parameters) have on the model output (e.g. simulated streamflow). In sampling-based Global Sensitivity Analysis, the sample size has to be chosen carefully in order to obtain reliable sensitivity estimates while spending computational resources efficiently. Furthermore, insensitive parameters are typically identified through the definition of a screening threshold: the theoretical value of their sensitivity index is zero but in a sampling-base framework they regularly take non-zero values. There is little guidance available for these two steps in environmental modelling though. The objective of the present study is to support modellers in making appropriate choices, regarding both sample size and screening threshold, so that a robust sensitivity analysis can be implemented. We performed sensitivity analysis for the parameters of three hydrological models with increasing level of complexity (Hymod, HBV and SWAT), and tested three widely used sensitivity analysis methods (Elementary Effect Test or method of Morris, Regional Sensitivity Analysis, and Variance-Based Sensitivity Analysis). We defined criteria based on a bootstrap approach to assess three different types of convergence: the convergence of the value of the sensitivity indices, of the ranking (the ordering among the parameters) and of the screening (the identification of the insensitive parameters). We investigated the screening threshold through the definition of a validation procedure. The results showed that full convergence of the value of the sensitivity indices is not necessarily needed to rank or to screen the model input factors. Furthermore, typical values of the sample sizes that are reported in the literature can be well below the sample sizes that actually ensure convergence of ranking and screening.

  18. 78 FR 77153 - Environmental Action Statement Screening Form and Proposed Amendment to the Candidate...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-12-20

    ... the information necessary to determine impacts in the environmental action statement screening form... authorized for 25 years in Alfalfa, Beaver, Beckham, Cimarron, Custer, Dewey, Ellis, Harper, Major, Roger... discussion of the impacts, both positive and negative, can be found in the Final Environmental Assessment and...

  19. Initial Screening of Environmentally Sustainable Surface Pretreatments for Adhesive Bonding Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-05-17

    13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT A methacrylate adhesive marketed for high-temperature applications was screened in combination with...conditioning = RT. Mode-of-failure = mixed - mode (MM). ........................................................................................ 26 Fig. B-3...moisture exposure conditions. Additionally, as environmental regulations force various chemicals from the commercial market , the pretreatments and

  20. Screening Analysis for the Environmental Risk Evaluation System Fiscal Year 2011 Report Environmental Effects of Offshore Wind Energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Copping, Andrea E.; Hanna, Luke A.

    2011-11-01

    Potential environmental effects of offshore wind (OSW) energy development are not well understood, and yet regulatory agencies are required to make decisions in spite of substantial uncertainty about environmental impacts and their long-term consequences. An understanding of risks associated with interactions between OSW installations and avian and aquatic receptors, including animals, habitats, and ecosystems, can help define key uncertainties and focus regulatory actions and scientific studies on interactions of most concern. During FY 2011, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) scientists adapted and applied the Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES), first developed to examine the effects of marine and hydrokinetic energy devices on aquatic environments, to offshore wind development. PNNL scientists conducted a risk screening analysis on two initial OSW cases: a wind project in Lake Erie and a wind project off the Atlantic coast of the United States near Atlantic City, New Jersey. The screening analysis revealed that top-tier stressors in the two OSW cases were the dynamic effects of the device (e.g., strike), accidents/disasters, and effects of the static physical presence of the device, such as alterations in bottom habitats. Receptor interactions with these stressors at the highest tiers of risk were dominated by threatened and endangered animals. Risk to the physical environment from changes in flow regime also ranked high. Peer review of this process and results will be conducted during FY 2012. The ERES screening analysis provides an assessment of the vulnerability of environmental receptors to stressors associated with OSW installations; a probability analysis is needed to determine specific risk levels to receptors. As more data become available that document effects of offshore wind farms on specific receptors in U.S. coastal and Great Lakes waters, probability analyses will be performed.

  1. In vitro screening of environmental chemicals for targeted testing prioritization: the ToxCast project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Judson, Richard S; Houck, Keith A; Kavlock, Robert J; Knudsen, Thomas B; Martin, Matthew T; Mortensen, Holly M; Reif, David M; Rotroff, Daniel M; Shah, Imran; Richard, Ann M; Dix, David J

    2010-04-01

    Chemical toxicity testing is being transformed by advances in biology and computer modeling, concerns over animal use, and the thousands of environmental chemicals lacking toxicity data. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's ToxCast program aims to address these concerns by screening and prioritizing chemicals for potential human toxicity using in vitro assays and in silico approaches. This project aims to evaluate the use of in vitro assays for understanding the types of molecular and pathway perturbations caused by environmental chemicals and to build initial prioritization models of in vivo toxicity. We tested 309 mostly pesticide active chemicals in 467 assays across nine technologies, including high-throughput cell-free assays and cell-based assays, in multiple human primary cells and cell lines plus rat primary hepatocytes. Both individual and composite scores for effects on genes and pathways were analyzed. Chemicals displayed a broad spectrum of activity at the molecular and pathway levels. We saw many expected interactions, including endocrine and xenobiotic metabolism enzyme activity. Chemicals ranged in promiscuity across pathways, from no activity to affecting dozens of pathways. We found a statistically significant inverse association between the number of pathways perturbed by a chemical at low in vitro concentrations and the lowest in vivo dose at which a chemical causes toxicity. We also found associations between a small set of in vitro assays and rodent liver lesion formation. This approach promises to provide meaningful data on the thousands of untested environmental chemicals and to guide targeted testing of environmental contaminants.

  2. Modeling environmental policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, W.E.; McDonald, L.A.

    1997-01-01

    The eight book chapters demonstrate the link between the physical models of the environment and the policy analysis in support of policy making. Each chapter addresses an environmental policy issue using a quantitative modeling approach. The volume addresses three general areas of environmental policy - non-point source pollution in the agricultural sector, pollution generated in the extractive industries, and transboundary pollutants from burning fossil fuels. The book concludes by discussing the modeling efforts and the use of mathematical models in general. Chapters are entitled: modeling environmental policy: an introduction; modeling nonpoint source pollution in an integrated system (agri-ecological); modeling environmental and trade policy linkages: the case of EU and US agriculture; modeling ecosystem constraints in the Clean Water Act: a case study in Clearwater National Forest (subject to discharge from metal mining waste); costs and benefits of coke oven emission controls; modeling equilibria and risk under global environmental constraints (discussing energy and environmental interrelations); relative contribution of the enhanced greenhouse effect on the coastal changes in Louisiana; and the use of mathematical models in policy evaluations: comments. The paper on coke area emission controls has been abstracted separately for the IEA Coal Research CD-ROM

  3. Systematic review of model-based cervical screening evaluations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendes, Diana; Bains, Iren; Vanni, Tazio; Jit, Mark

    2015-05-01

    Optimising population-based cervical screening policies is becoming more complex due to the expanding range of screening technologies available and the interplay with vaccine-induced changes in epidemiology. Mathematical models are increasingly being applied to assess the impact of cervical cancer screening strategies. We systematically reviewed MEDLINE®, Embase, Web of Science®, EconLit, Health Economic Evaluation Database, and The Cochrane Library databases in order to identify the mathematical models of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and cervical cancer progression used to assess the effectiveness and/or cost-effectiveness of cervical cancer screening strategies. Key model features and conclusions relevant to decision-making were extracted. We found 153 articles meeting our eligibility criteria published up to May 2013. Most studies (72/153) evaluated the introduction of a new screening technology, with particular focus on the comparison of HPV DNA testing and cytology (n = 58). Twenty-eight in forty of these analyses supported HPV DNA primary screening implementation. A few studies analysed more recent technologies - rapid HPV DNA testing (n = 3), HPV DNA self-sampling (n = 4), and genotyping (n = 1) - and were also supportive of their introduction. However, no study was found on emerging molecular markers and their potential utility in future screening programmes. Most evaluations (113/153) were based on models simulating aggregate groups of women at risk of cervical cancer over time without accounting for HPV infection transmission. Calibration to country-specific outcome data is becoming more common, but has not yet become standard practice. Models of cervical screening are increasingly used, and allow extrapolation of trial data to project the population-level health and economic impact of different screening policy. However, post-vaccination analyses have rarely incorporated transmission dynamics. Model calibration to country

  4. Screen or not to screen for peripheral arterial disease: guidance from a decision model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaidya, Anil; Joore, Manuela A; Ten Cate-Hoek, Arina J; Ten Cate, Hugo; Severens, Johan L

    2014-01-29

    Asymptomatic Peripheral Arterial Disease (PAD) is associated with greater risk of acute cardiovascular events. This study aims to determine the cost-effectiveness of one time only PAD screening using Ankle Brachial Index (ABI) test and subsequent anti platelet preventive treatment (low dose aspirin or clopidogrel) in individuals at high risk for acute cardiovascular events compared to no screening and no treatment using decision analytic modelling. A probabilistic Markov model was developed to evaluate the life time cost-effectiveness of the strategy of selective PAD screening and consequent preventive treatment compared to no screening and no preventive treatment. The analysis was conducted from the Dutch societal perspective and to address decision uncertainty, probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed. Results were based on average values of 1000 Monte Carlo simulations and using discount rates of 1.5% and 4% for effects and costs respectively. One way sensitivity analyses were performed to identify the two most influential model parameters affecting model outputs. Then, a two way sensitivity analysis was conducted for combinations of values tested for these two most influential parameters. For the PAD screening strategy, life years and quality adjusted life years gained were 21.79 and 15.66 respectively at a lifetime cost of 26,548 Euros. Compared to no screening and treatment (20.69 life years, 15.58 Quality Adjusted Life Years, 28,052 Euros), these results indicate that PAD screening and treatment is a dominant strategy. The cost effectiveness acceptability curves show 88% probability of PAD screening being cost effective at the Willingness To Pay (WTP) threshold of 40000 Euros. In a scenario analysis using clopidogrel as an alternative anti-platelet drug, PAD screening strategy remained dominant. This decision analysis suggests that targeted ABI screening and consequent secondary prevention of cardiovascular events using low dose aspirin or

  5. Performance of the flow cytometric E-screen assay in screening estrogenicity of pure compounds and environmental samples

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vanparys, Caroline, E-mail: caroline.vanparys@ua.ac.be [Laboratory of Ecophysiology, Biochemistry and Toxicology, University of Antwerp, Antwerp (Belgium); Depiereux, Sophie; Nadzialek, Stephanie [Research Unit in Organismal Biology (URBO), University of Namur (FUNDP), Namur (Belgium); Robbens, Johan; Blust, Ronny [Laboratory of Ecophysiology, Biochemistry and Toxicology, University of Antwerp, Antwerp (Belgium); Kestemont, Patrick [Research Unit in Organismal Biology (URBO), University of Namur (FUNDP), Namur (Belgium); De Coen, Wim [Laboratory of Ecophysiology, Biochemistry and Toxicology, University of Antwerp, Antwerp (Belgium); European Chemicals Agency (ECHA), Helsinki (Finland)

    2010-09-15

    In vitro estrogenicity screens are believed to provide a first prioritization step in hazard characterization of endocrine disrupting chemicals. When applied to complex environmental matrices or mixture samples, they have been indicated valuable in estimating the overall estrogen-mimicking load. In this study, the performance of an adapted format of the classical E-screen or MCF-7 cell proliferation assay was profoundly evaluated to rank pure compounds as well as influents and effluents of sewage treatment plants (STPs) according to estrogenic activity. In this adapted format, flow cytometric cell cycle analysis was used to allow evaluation of the MCF-7 cell proliferative effects after only 24 h of exposure. With an average EC{sub 50} value of 2 pM and CV of 22%, this assay appears as a sensitive and reproducible system for evaluation of estrogenic activity. Moreover, estrogenic responses of 17 pure compounds corresponded well, qualitatively and quantitatively, with other in vitro and in vivo estrogenicity screens, such as the classical E-screen (R{sup 2} = 0.98), the estrogen receptor (ER) binding (R{sup 2} = 0.84) and the ER transcription activation assay (R{sup 2} = 0.87). To evaluate the applicability of this assay for complex samples, influents and effluents of 10 STPs covering different treatment processes, were compared and ranked according to estrogenic removal efficiencies. Activated sludge treatment with phosphorus and nitrogen removal appeared most effective in eliminating estrogenic activity, followed by activated sludge, lagoon and filter bed. This is well in agreement with previous findings based on chemical analysis or biological activity screens. Moreover, ER blocking experiments indicated that cell proliferative responses were mainly ER mediated, illustrating that the complexity of the end point, cell proliferation, compared to other ER screens, does not hamper the interpretation of the results. Therefore, this study, among other E-screen studies

  6. Performance of the flow cytometric E-screen assay in screening estrogenicity of pure compounds and environmental samples

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vanparys, Caroline; Depiereux, Sophie; Nadzialek, Stephanie; Robbens, Johan; Blust, Ronny; Kestemont, Patrick; De Coen, Wim

    2010-01-01

    In vitro estrogenicity screens are believed to provide a first prioritization step in hazard characterization of endocrine disrupting chemicals. When applied to complex environmental matrices or mixture samples, they have been indicated valuable in estimating the overall estrogen-mimicking load. In this study, the performance of an adapted format of the classical E-screen or MCF-7 cell proliferation assay was profoundly evaluated to rank pure compounds as well as influents and effluents of sewage treatment plants (STPs) according to estrogenic activity. In this adapted format, flow cytometric cell cycle analysis was used to allow evaluation of the MCF-7 cell proliferative effects after only 24 h of exposure. With an average EC 50 value of 2 pM and CV of 22%, this assay appears as a sensitive and reproducible system for evaluation of estrogenic activity. Moreover, estrogenic responses of 17 pure compounds corresponded well, qualitatively and quantitatively, with other in vitro and in vivo estrogenicity screens, such as the classical E-screen (R 2 = 0.98), the estrogen receptor (ER) binding (R 2 = 0.84) and the ER transcription activation assay (R 2 = 0.87). To evaluate the applicability of this assay for complex samples, influents and effluents of 10 STPs covering different treatment processes, were compared and ranked according to estrogenic removal efficiencies. Activated sludge treatment with phosphorus and nitrogen removal appeared most effective in eliminating estrogenic activity, followed by activated sludge, lagoon and filter bed. This is well in agreement with previous findings based on chemical analysis or biological activity screens. Moreover, ER blocking experiments indicated that cell proliferative responses were mainly ER mediated, illustrating that the complexity of the end point, cell proliferation, compared to other ER screens, does not hamper the interpretation of the results. Therefore, this study, among other E-screen studies, supports the use of

  7. Unifying screening processes within the PROSPR consortium: a conceptual model for breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaber, Elisabeth F; Kim, Jane J; Schapira, Marilyn M; Tosteson, Anna N A; Zauber, Ann G; Geiger, Ann M; Kamineni, Aruna; Weaver, Donald L; Tiro, Jasmin A

    2015-06-01

    General frameworks of the cancer screening process are available, but none directly compare the process in detail across different organ sites. This limits the ability of medical and public health professionals to develop and evaluate coordinated screening programs that apply resources and population management strategies available for one cancer site to other sites. We present a trans-organ conceptual model that incorporates a single screening episode for breast, cervical, and colorectal cancers into a unified framework based on clinical guidelines and protocols; the model concepts could be expanded to other organ sites. The model covers four types of care in the screening process: risk assessment, detection, diagnosis, and treatment. Interfaces between different provider teams (eg, primary care and specialty care), including communication and transfer of responsibility, may occur when transitioning between types of care. Our model highlights across each organ site similarities and differences in steps, interfaces, and transitions in the screening process and documents the conclusion of a screening episode. This model was developed within the National Cancer Institute-funded consortium Population-based Research Optimizing Screening through Personalized Regimens (PROSPR). PROSPR aims to optimize the screening process for breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer and includes seven research centers and a statistical coordinating center. Given current health care reform initiatives in the United States, this conceptual model can facilitate the development of comprehensive quality metrics for cancer screening and promote trans-organ comparative cancer screening research. PROSPR findings will support the design of interventions that improve screening outcomes across multiple cancer sites. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  8. Environmental and risk screening for prioritizing pollution prevention opportunities in the U.S. printed wiring board manufacturing industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Carl W; Lim, Seong-Rin; Schoenung, Julie M

    2011-05-15

    Modern manufacturing of printed wiring boards (PWBs) involves extensive use of various hazardous chemicals in different manufacturing steps such as board preparation, circuit design transfer, etching and plating processes. Two complementary environmental screening methods developed by the U.S. EPA, namely: (i) the Tool for the Reduction and Assessment of Chemical and Other Environmental Impacts (TRACI) and (ii) Risk-Screening Environmental Indicators (RSEI), are used to quantify geographic and chemical environmental impacts in the U.S. PWB manufacturing industry based on Toxics Release Inventory (TRI) data. Although the release weight percentages of industrial chemicals such as methanol, glycol ethers and dimethylformamide comprise the larger fraction of reported air and water emissions, results indicate that lead, copper and their compounds' releases correspond to the highest environmental impact from toxicity potentials and risk-screening scores. Combining these results with further knowledge of PWB manufacturing, select alternative chemical processes and materials for pollution prevention are discussed. Examples of effective pollution prevention options in the PWB industry include spent etchant recovery technologies, and process and material substitutions. In addition, geographic assessment of environmental burden highlights states where promotion of pollution prevention strategies and emissions regulations can have the greatest effect to curb the PWB industry's toxic release impacts. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Environmental screening tools for assessment of infrastructure plans based on biodiversity preservation and global warming (PEIT, Spain)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia-Montero, Luis G.; Lopez, Elena; Monzon, Andres; Otero Pastor, Isabel

    2010-01-01

    Most Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) research has been concerned with SEA as a procedure, and there have been relatively few developments and tests of analytical methodologies. The first stage of the SEA is the 'screening', which is the process whereby a decision is taken on whether or not SEA is required for a particular programme or plan. The effectiveness of screening and SEA procedures will depend on how well the assessment fits into the planning from the early stages of the decision-making process. However, it is difficult to prepare the environmental screening for an infrastructure plan involving a whole country. To be useful, such methodologies must be fast and simple. We have developed two screening tools which would make it possible to estimate promptly the overall impact an infrastructure plan might have on biodiversity and global warming for a whole country, in order to generate planning alternatives, and to determine whether or not SEA is required for a particular infrastructure plan.

  10. Screening fifth forces in k-essence and DBI models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brax, Philippe [Institut de Physique Théorique, CEA, IPhT, CNRS, URA2306, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette cédex (France); Burrage, Clare [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Nottingham, Nottingham NG7 2RD (United Kingdom); Davis, Anne-Christine, E-mail: Philippe.Brax@cea.fr, E-mail: Clare.Burrage@nottingham.ac.uk, E-mail: A.C.Davis@damtp.cam.ac.uk [Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, Centre for Mathematical Sciences, Cambridge CB3 0WA (United Kingdom)

    2013-01-01

    New fifth forces have not yet been detected in the laboratory or in the solar system, hence it is typically difficult to introduce new light scalar fields that would mediate such forces. In recent years it has been shown that a number of non-linear scalar field theories allow for a dynamical mechanism, such as the Vainshtein and chameleon ones, that suppresses the strength of the scalar fifth force in experimental environments. This is known as screening, however it is unclear how common screening is within non-linear scalar field theories. k-essence models are commonly studied examples of non-linear models, with DBI as the best motivated example, and so we ask whether these non-linearities are able to screen a scalar fifth force. We find that a Vainshtein-like screening mechanism exists for such models although with limited applicability. For instance, we cannot find a screening mechanism for DBI models. On the other hand, we construct a large class of k-essence models which lead to the acceleration of the Universe in the recent past for which the fifth force mediated by the scalar can be screened.

  11. Methodological Considerations in Screening for Cumulative Environmental Health Impacts: Lessons Learned from a Pilot Study in California

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lauren Zeise

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Polluting facilities and hazardous sites are often concentrated in low-income communities of color already facing additional stressors to their health. The influence of socioeconomic status is not considered in traditional models of risk assessment. We describe a pilot study of a screening method that considers both pollution burden and population characteristics in assessing the potential for cumulative impacts. The goal is to identify communities that warrant further attention and to thereby provide actionable guidance to decision- and policy-makers in achieving environmental justice. The method uses indicators related to five components to develop a relative cumulative impact score for use in comparing communities: exposures, public health effects, environmental effects, sensitive populations and socioeconomic factors. Here, we describe several methodological considerations in combining disparate data sources and report on the results of sensitivity analyses meant to guide future improvements in cumulative impact assessments. We discuss criteria for the selection of appropriate indicators, correlations between them, and consider data quality and the influence of choices regarding model structure. We conclude that the results of this model are largely robust to changes in model structure.

  12. Melancthon Grey Wind Project environmental screening report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    Canadian Hydro has proposed that the Melancthon and Grey Highlands Townships in Dufferin County, Ontario are ideally suited for the installation of a 240 MW wind farm. Assuming a turbine rating of 1.5 MW each, a total of 160 turbines could be installed. The utility has decided to undertake the project in up to 4 phases. This paper focuses on the construction and operation of a 75 MW wind turbine array (50, 1.5 MW turbines) dispersed over an area of about 3,511 hectares in the Melancthon Township. The total expected cost of the first phase is $130 million, with construction scheduled to begin in April 2005 for an in-service date of no later than March 31, 2006 to meet the Wind Power Production Incentive (WPPI) funding requirements. This environmental screening report (ESR) was completed to help Canadian Hydro fulfill regulatory requirements. It presented the project summary, the estimated capacity of the wind farm, and construction schedule. The environmental setting was also presented along with power line routing. This ESR addressed issues that may impact surface and ground water quality, air quality, soil erosion, environmental noise and disposal of waste materials. Issues affecting migratory birds, agricultural resources, community characteristics, construction related traffic, public health, historical resources and viewscapes were also addressed. The general conclusion of the ESR is that the project can be constructed, operated and decommissioned in such a manner as to minimize potentially adverse effects on the environment while enhancing the positive effects both locally and provincially. Migratory bird deaths due to collision with turbines are expected to be negligible and the effects of breeding bird habitat have been minimized through proposed mitigation measures. Environmental noise levels are expected to be within the applicable noise criteria. There will be no negative effect on property values within the viewshed of the turbines. There are many net

  13. Screening Analysis for the Environmental Risk Evaluation System Task 2.1.1.2: Evaluating Effects of Stressors Fiscal Year 2011 Progress Report - Environmental Effects of Marine and Hydrokinetic Energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Copping, Andrea E.; Blake, Kara M.; Anderson, Richard M.; Zdanski, Laura C.; Gill, Gary A.; Ward, Jeffrey A.

    2011-09-01

    Potential environmental effects of marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) energy development are not well understood, and yet regulatory agencies are required to make decisions in spite of substantial uncertainty about environmental impacts and their long-term consequences. An understanding of risks associated with interactions between MHK installations and aquatic receptors, including animals, habitats, and ecosystems, can help define key uncertainties and focus regulatory actions and scientific studies on interactions of most concern. As a first step in developing the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES), PNNL scientists conducted a preliminary risk screening analysis on three initial MHK cases. During FY 2011, two additional cases were added: a tidal project in the Gulf of Maine using Ocean Renewable Power Company TidGenTM turbines and a wave project planned for the coast of Oregon using Aquamarine Oyster surge devices. Through an iterative process, the screening analysis revealed that top-tier stressors in the two FY 2011 cases were the dynamic effects of the device (e.g., strike), accidents/disasters, and effects of the static physical presence of the device (e.g., habitat alteration). Receptor interactions with these stressors at the highest tiers of risk were dominated by threatened and endangered animals. Risk to the physical environment from changes in flow regime also ranked high. Peer review of this process and results will be conducted in early FY 2012. The ERES screening analysis provides an analysis of vulnerability of environmental receptors to stressors associated with MHK installations, probability analysis is needed to determine specific risk levels to receptors. “Risk” has two components: (1) The likelihood, or “probability”, of the occurrence of a given interaction or event, and (2) the potential “consequence” if that interaction or event were to occur. During FY 2011, the ERES screening

  14. On various metrics used for validation of predictive QSAR models with applications in virtual screening and focused library design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Kunal; Mitra, Indrani

    2011-07-01

    Quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs) have important applications in drug discovery research, environmental fate modeling, property prediction, etc. Validation has been recognized as a very important step for QSAR model development. As one of the important objectives of QSAR modeling is to predict activity/property/toxicity of new chemicals falling within the domain of applicability of the developed models and QSARs are being used for regulatory decisions, checking reliability of the models and confidence of their predictions is a very important aspect, which can be judged during the validation process. One prime application of a statistically significant QSAR model is virtual screening for molecules with improved potency based on the pharmacophoric features and the descriptors appearing in the QSAR model. Validated QSAR models may also be utilized for design of focused libraries which may be subsequently screened for the selection of hits. The present review focuses on various metrics used for validation of predictive QSAR models together with an overview of the application of QSAR models in the fields of virtual screening and focused library design for diverse series of compounds with citation of some recent examples.

  15. Uncertainty quantification for environmental models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Mary C.; Lu, Dan; Kavetski, Dmitri; Clark, Martyn P.; Ye, Ming

    2012-01-01

    Environmental models are used to evaluate the fate of fertilizers in agricultural settings (including soil denitrification), the degradation of hydrocarbons at spill sites, and water supply for people and ecosystems in small to large basins and cities—to mention but a few applications of these models. They also play a role in understanding and diagnosing potential environmental impacts of global climate change. The models are typically mildly to extremely nonlinear. The persistent demand for enhanced dynamics and resolution to improve model realism [17] means that lengthy individual model execution times will remain common, notwithstanding continued enhancements in computer power. In addition, high-dimensional parameter spaces are often defined, which increases the number of model runs required to quantify uncertainty [2]. Some environmental modeling projects have access to extensive funding and computational resources; many do not. The many recent studies of uncertainty quantification in environmental model predictions have focused on uncertainties related to data error and sparsity of data, expert judgment expressed mathematically through prior information, poorly known parameter values, and model structure (see, for example, [1,7,9,10,13,18]). Approaches for quantifying uncertainty include frequentist (potentially with prior information [7,9]), Bayesian [13,18,19], and likelihood-based. A few of the numerous methods, including some sensitivity and inverse methods with consequences for understanding and quantifying uncertainty, are as follows: Bayesian hierarchical modeling and Bayesian model averaging; single-objective optimization with error-based weighting [7] and multi-objective optimization [3]; methods based on local derivatives [2,7,10]; screening methods like OAT (one at a time) and the method of Morris [14]; FAST (Fourier amplitude sensitivity testing) [14]; the Sobol' method [14]; randomized maximum likelihood [10]; Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) [10

  16. Environmental Satellite Models for a Macroeconomic Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moeller, F.; Grinderslev, D.; Werner, M.

    2003-01-01

    To support national environmental policy, it is desirable to forecast and analyse environmental indicators consistently with economic variables. However, environmental indicators are physical measures linked to physical activities that are not specified in economic models. One way to deal with this is to develop environmental satellite models linked to economic models. The system of models presented gives a frame of reference where emissions of greenhouse gases, acid gases, and leaching of nutrients to the aquatic environment are analysed in line with - and consistently with - macroeconomic variables. This paper gives an overview of the data and the satellite models. Finally, the results of applying the model system to calculate the impacts on emissions and the economy are reviewed in a few illustrative examples. The models have been developed for Denmark; however, most of the environmental data used are from the CORINAIR system implemented in numerous countries

  17. Environmental Justice Screening Method (EJSM) Score, San Joaquin Valley CA, 2013, Occidental College and UC Berkeley

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Cumulative Impacts (CI) screening method is jointly being developed by Manuel Pastor, Jim Sadd (Occidental College), and Rachel Morello-Frosch (UC Berkeley) ....

  18. Modeling granular phosphor screens by Monte Carlo methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liaparinos, Panagiotis F.; Kandarakis, Ioannis S.; Cavouras, Dionisis A.; Delis, Harry B.; Panayiotakis, George S.

    2006-01-01

    The intrinsic phosphor properties are of significant importance for the performance of phosphor screens used in medical imaging systems. In previous analytical-theoretical and Monte Carlo studies on granular phosphor materials, values of optical properties, and light interaction cross sections were found by fitting to experimental data. These values were then employed for the assessment of phosphor screen imaging performance. However, it was found that, depending on the experimental technique and fitting methodology, the optical parameters of a specific phosphor material varied within a wide range of values, i.e., variations of light scattering with respect to light absorption coefficients were often observed for the same phosphor material. In this study, x-ray and light transport within granular phosphor materials was studied by developing a computational model using Monte Carlo methods. The model was based on the intrinsic physical characteristics of the phosphor. Input values required to feed the model can be easily obtained from tabulated data. The complex refractive index was introduced and microscopic probabilities for light interactions were produced, using Mie scattering theory. Model validation was carried out by comparing model results on x-ray and light parameters (x-ray absorption, statistical fluctuations in the x-ray to light conversion process, number of emitted light photons, output light spatial distribution) with previous published experimental data on Gd 2 O 2 S:Tb phosphor material (Kodak Min-R screen). Results showed the dependence of the modulation transfer function (MTF) on phosphor grain size and material packing density. It was predicted that granular Gd 2 O 2 S:Tb screens of high packing density and small grain size may exhibit considerably better resolution and light emission properties than the conventional Gd 2 O 2 S:Tb screens, under similar conditions (x-ray incident energy, screen thickness)

  19. Environmental Toxin Screening Using Human-Derived 3D Bioengineered Liver and Cardiac Organoids

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven D. Forsythe

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available IntroductionEnvironmental toxins, such as lead and other heavy metals, pesticides, and other compounds, represent a significant health concern within the USA and around the world. Even in the twenty-first century, a plethora of cities and towns in the U.S. have suffered from exposures to lead in drinking water or other heavy metals in food or the earth, while there is a high possibility of further places to suffer such exposures in the near future.MethodsWe employed bioengineered 3D human liver and cardiac organoids to screen a panel of environmental toxins (lead, mercury, thallium, and glyphosate, and charted the response of the organoids to these compounds. Liver and cardiac organoids were exposed to lead (10 µM–10 mM, mercury (200 nM–200 µM, thallium (10 nM–10 µM, or glyphosate (25 µM–25 mM for a duration of 48 h. The impacts of toxin exposure were then assessed by LIVE/DEAD viability and cytotoxicity staining, measuring ATP activity and determining IC50 values, and determining changes in cardiac organoid beating activity.ResultsAs expected, all of the toxins induced toxicity in the organoids. Both ATP and LIVE/DEAD assays showed toxicity in both liver and cardiac organoids. In particular, thallium was the most toxic, with IC50 values of 13.5 and 1.35 µM in liver and cardiac organoids, respectively. Conversely, glyphosate was the least toxic of the four compounds, with IC50 values of 10.53 and 10.85 mM in liver and cardiac organoids, respectively. Additionally, toxins had a negative influence on cardiac organoid beating activity as well. Thallium resulting in the most significant decreases in beating rate, followed by mercury, then glyphosate, and finally, lead. These results suggest that the 3D organoids have significant utility to be deployed in additional toxicity screening applications, and future development of treatments to mitigate exposures.Conclusion3D organoids have significant utility to be

  20. Sensitivity of ecological soil-screening levels for metals to exposure model parameterization and toxicity reference values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sample, Bradley E; Fairbrother, Anne; Kaiser, Ashley; Law, Sheryl; Adams, Bill

    2014-10-01

    Ecological soil-screening levels (Eco-SSLs) were developed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) for the purposes of setting conservative soil screening values that can be used to eliminate the need for further ecological assessment for specific analytes at a given site. Ecological soil-screening levels for wildlife represent a simplified dietary exposure model solved in terms of soil concentrations to produce exposure equal to a no-observed-adverse-effect toxicity reference value (TRV). Sensitivity analyses were performed for 6 avian and mammalian model species, and 16 metals/metalloids for which Eco-SSLs have been developed. The relative influence of model parameters was expressed as the absolute value of the range of variation observed in the resulting soil concentration when exposure is equal to the TRV. Rank analysis of variance was used to identify parameters with greatest influence on model output. For both birds and mammals, soil ingestion displayed the broadest overall range (variability), although TRVs consistently had the greatest influence on calculated soil concentrations; bioavailability in food was consistently the least influential parameter, although an important site-specific variable. Relative importance of parameters differed by trophic group. Soil ingestion ranked 2nd for carnivores and herbivores, but was 4th for invertivores. Different patterns were exhibited, depending on which parameter, trophic group, and analyte combination was considered. The approach for TRV selection was also examined in detail, with Cu as the representative analyte. The underlying assumption that generic body-weight-normalized TRVs can be used to derive protective levels for any species is not supported by the data. Whereas the use of site-, species-, and analyte-specific exposure parameters is recommended to reduce variation in exposure estimates (soil protection level), improvement of TRVs is more problematic. © 2014 The Authors

  1. SCREENING CHEMICALS FOR ESTROGEN RECEPTOR BIOACTIVITY USING A COMPUTATIONAL MODEL

    Science.gov (United States)

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is considering the use high-throughput and computational methods for regulatory applications in the Endocrine Disruptor Screening Program (EDSP). To use these new tools for regulatory decision making, computational methods must be a...

  2. ToxCast Workflow: High-throughput screening assay data processing, analysis and management (SOT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    US EPA’s ToxCast program is generating data in high-throughput screening (HTS) and high-content screening (HCS) assays for thousands of environmental chemicals, for use in developing predictive toxicity models. Currently the ToxCast screening program includes over 1800 unique c...

  3. High-throughput screening (HTS) and modeling of the retinoid ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Presentation at the Retinoids Review 2nd workshop in Brussels, Belgium on the application of high throughput screening and model to the retinoid system Presentation at the Retinoids Review 2nd workshop in Brussels, Belgium on the application of high throughput screening and model to the retinoid system

  4. Genetic screens in Caenorhabditis elegans models for neurodegenerative diseases

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alvarenga Fernandes Sin, Olga; Michels, Helen; Nollen, Ellen A. A.

    2014-01-01

    Caenorhabditis elegans comprises unique features that make it an attractive model organism in diverse fields of biology. Genetic screens are powerful to identify genes and C. elegans can be customized to forward or reverse genetic screens and to establish gene function. These genetic screens can be

  5. Can data science inform environmental justice and community risk screening for type 2 diabetes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, J Allen; Burgoon, Lyle D

    2015-01-01

    Having the ability to scan the entire country for potential "hotspots" with increased risk of developing chronic diseases due to various environmental, demographic, and genetic susceptibility factors may inform risk management decisions and enable better environmental public health policies. Develop an approach for community-level risk screening focused on identifying potential genetic susceptibility hotpots. Our approach combines analyses of phenotype-genotype data, genetic prevalence of single nucleotide polymorphisms, and census/geographic information to estimate census tract-level population attributable risks among various ethnicities and total population for the state of California. We estimate that the rs13266634 single nucleotide polymorphism, a type 2 diabetes susceptibility genotype, has a genetic prevalence of 56.3%, 47.4% and 37.0% in Mexican Mestizo, Caucasian, and Asian populations. Looking at the top quintile for total population attributable risk, 16 California counties have greater than 25% of their population living in hotspots of genetic susceptibility for developing type 2 diabetes due to this single genotypic susceptibility factor. This study identified counties in California where large portions of the population may bear additional type 2 diabetes risk due to increased genetic prevalence of a susceptibility genotype. This type of screening can easily be extended to include information on environmental contaminants of interest and other related diseases, and potentially enables the rapid identification of potential environmental justice communities. Other potential uses of this approach include problem formulation in support of risk assessments, land use planning, and prioritization of site cleanup and remediation actions.

  6. Macro-economic environmental models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wier, M.

    1993-01-01

    In the present report, an introduction to macro-economic environmental models is given. The role of the models as a tool for policy analysis is discussed. Future applications, as well as the limitations given by the data, are brought into focus. The economic-ecological system is described. A set of guidelines for implementation of the system in a traditional economic macro-model is proposed. The characteristics of empirical national and international environmental macro-economic models so far are highlighted. Special attention is paid to main economic causalities and their consequences for the environmental policy recommendations sat by the models. (au) (41 refs.)

  7. Adolescent idiopathic scoliosis screening for school, community, and clinical health promotion practice utilizing the PRECEDE-PROCEED model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wyatt Lawrence A

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Screening for adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS is a commonly performed procedure for school children during the high risk years. The PRECEDE-PROCEDE (PP model is a health promotion planning model that has not been utilized for the clinical diagnosis of AIS. The purpose of this research is to study AIS in the school age population using the PP model and its relevance for community, school, and clinical health promotion. Methods MEDLINE was utilized to locate AIS data. Studies were screened for relevance and applicability under the auspices of the PP model. Where data was unavailable, expert opinion was utilized based on consensus. Results The social assessment of quality of life is limited with few studies approaching the long-term effects of AIS. Epidemiologically, AIS is the most common form of scoliosis and leading orthopedic problem in children. Behavioral/environmental studies focus on discovering etiologic relationships yet this data is confounded because AIS is not a behavioral. Illness and parenting health behaviors can be appreciated. The educational diagnosis is confounded because AIS is an orthopedic disorder and not behavioral. The administration/policy diagnosis is hindered in that scoliosis screening programs are not considered cost-effective. Policies are determined in some schools because 26 states mandate school scoliosis screening. There exists potential error with the Adam's test. The most widely used measure in the PP model, the Health Belief Model, has not been utilized in any AIS research. Conclusion The PP model is a useful tool for a comprehensive study of a particular health concern. This research showed where gaps in AIS research exist suggesting that there may be problems to the implementation of school screening. Until research disparities are filled, implementation of AIS screening by school, community, and clinical health promotion will be compromised. Lack of data and perceived importance by

  8. Lung Cancer Screening Participation: Developing a Conceptual Model to Guide Research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter-Harris, Lisa; Davis, Lorie L; Rawl, Susan M

    2016-11-01

    To describe the development of a conceptual model to guide research focused on lung cancer screening participation from the perspective of the individual in the decision-making process. Based on a comprehensive review of empirical and theoretical literature, a conceptual model was developed linking key psychological variables (stigma, medical mistrust, fatalism, worry, and fear) to the health belief model and precaution adoption process model. Proposed model concepts have been examined in prior research of either lung or other cancer screening behavior. To date, a few studies have explored a limited number of variables that influence screening behavior in lung cancer specifically. Therefore, relationships among concepts in the model have been proposed and future research directions presented. This proposed model is an initial step to support theoretically based research. As lung cancer screening becomes more widely implemented, it is critical to theoretically guide research to understand variables that may be associated with lung cancer screening participation. Findings from future research guided by the proposed conceptual model can be used to refine the model and inform tailored intervention development.

  9. A Multiscale Model Evaluates Screening for Neoplasia in Barrett's Esophagus.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kit Curtius

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Barrett's esophagus (BE patients are routinely screened for high grade dysplasia (HGD and esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC through endoscopic screening, during which multiple esophageal tissue samples are removed for histological analysis. We propose a computational method called the multistage clonal expansion for EAC (MSCE-EAC screening model that is used for screening BE patients in silico to evaluate the effects of biopsy sampling, diagnostic sensitivity, and treatment on disease burden. Our framework seamlessly integrates relevant cell-level processes during EAC development with a spatial screening process to provide a clinically relevant model for detecting dysplastic and malignant clones within the crypt-structured BE tissue. With this computational approach, we retain spatio-temporal information about small, unobserved tissue lesions in BE that may remain undetected during biopsy-based screening but could be detected with high-resolution imaging. This allows evaluation of the efficacy and sensitivity of current screening protocols to detect neoplasia (dysplasia and early preclinical EAC in the esophageal lining. We demonstrate the clinical utility of this model by predicting three important clinical outcomes: (1 the probability that small cancers are missed during biopsy-based screening, (2 the potential gains in neoplasia detection probabilities if screening occurred via high-resolution tomographic imaging, and (3 the efficacy of ablative treatments that result in the curative depletion of metaplastic and neoplastic cell populations in BE in terms of the long-term impact on reducing EAC incidence.

  10. SUPER-screening

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brax, Philippe, E-mail: Philippe.Brax@cea.fr [Institut de Physique Theorique, CEA, IPhT, CNRS, URA 2306, F-91191Gif/Yvette Cedex (France); Davis, Anne-Christine, E-mail: A.C.Davis@damtp.cam.ac.uk [DAMTP, Centre for Mathematical Sciences, University of Cambridge, Wilberforce Road, Cambridge CB3 0WA (United Kingdom); Sakstein, Jeremy, E-mail: J.A.Sakstein@damtp.cam.ac.uk [DAMTP, Centre for Mathematical Sciences, University of Cambridge, Wilberforce Road, Cambridge CB3 0WA (United Kingdom)

    2013-02-26

    We present a framework for embedding scalar–tensor models of screened modified gravity such as chameleons, symmetrons and environmental dilatons into global supersymmetry. This achieved by secluding the dark sector from both the observable and supersymmetry breaking sectors. We examine the resulting supersymmetric features in a model-independent manner and find that, when the theory follows from an underlying supergravity, the mediation of supersymmetry breaking to the dark sector induces a soft mass for the scalar of order the gravitino mass. This is enough to forbid the construction of supersymmetric symmetrons and ensures that when other screening mechanisms operate, no object in the Universe is unscreened thereby precluding any observable signatures. In view of a possible origin of modified gravity within fundamental physics, we find that only no-scale models can circumvent these features. We also present a novel mechanism where the coupling of the scalar to two other scalars charged under U(1) can dynamically generate a small cosmological constant at late times in the form of a Fayet–Iliopoulos term.

  11. Socio-demographic, psychosocial and home-environmental attributes associated with adults' domestic screen time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Owen Neville

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Sedentary behaviors (involving prolonged sitting time are associated with deleterious health consequences, independent of (lack of physical activity. To inform interventions, correlates of prevalent sedentary behaviors need to be identified. We examined associations of socio-demographic, home-environmental and psychosocial factors with adults' TV viewing time and leisure-time Internet use; and whether psychosocial and environmental correlates differed according to gender, age and educational attainment. Methods This cross-sectional study was conducted in Ghent, Belgium, between March and May 2010. Respondents to a mail-out survey (n = 419; 20-65 years; mean age 48.5 [12.1] years; 47.3% men completed a questionnaire on sedentary behaviors and their potential socio-demographic, psychosocial and home environmental correlates. Statistical analyses were performed using multiple linear regression models. Results The independent variables explained 31% of the variance in TV viewing time and 38% of the variance in leisure-time Internet use. Higher education, greater perceived pros of and confidence about reducing TV time were negatively associated with TV viewing time; older age, higher body mass index, larger TV set size and greater perceived cons of reducing TV time showed positive associations. Perceived pros of and confidence about reducing Internet use were negatively associated with leisure-time Internet use; higher education, number of computers in the home, positive family social norms about Internet use and perceived cons of reducing Internet use showed positive associations. None of the socio-demographic factors moderated these associations. Conclusions Educational level, age, self-efficacy and pros/cons were the most important correlates identified in this study. If further cross-sectional and longitudinal research can confirm these findings, tailored interventions focusing on both psychosocial and environmental factors in

  12. A DPSIR model for ecological security assessment through indicator screening: a case study at Dianchi Lake in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhen Wang

    Full Text Available Given the important role of lake ecosystems in social and economic development, and the current severe environmental degradation in China, a systematic diagnosis of the ecological security of lakes is essential for sustainable development. A Driving-force, Pressure, Status, Impact, and Risk (DPSIR model, combined with data screening for lake ecological security assessment was developed to overcome the disadvantages of data selection in existing assessment methods. Correlation and principal component analysis were used to select independent and representative data. The DPSIR model was then applied to evaluate the ecological security of Dianchi Lake in China during 1988-2007 using an ecological security index. The results revealed a V-shaped trend. The application of the DPSIR model with data screening provided useful information regarding the status of the lake's ecosystem, while ensuring information efficiency and eliminating multicollinearity. The modeling approach described here is practical and operationally efficient, and provides an attractive alternative approach to assess the ecological security of lakes.

  13. The Effect of Lead Intensification Screens on Film: Modeling and Experiment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wendt, S.; Gray, J.; Zhou, C.

    2004-01-01

    A physics-based, intensification screen model, using lead as an example, has been developed. Comparisons to experimental results are shown. The dominant effect in producing the intensification is from photoelectrons ejected from a 24 - 40 micron layer of lead near the film with Compton electrons and the lead fluorescence x-rays contributing less than 10% to the intensification for settings below 300 kvp. The thickness of lead screen for optimal intensification is between 15 and 70 microns depending upon the energy of the photon. This is less than the traditional practice of a 130 microns front screen and 260 microns back screen. The model computes the intensifying effect of lead screens placed in front or in back of a sheet of radiographic film and accounts for the strong energy dependent effects contributing to the intensification. The lead screen model is independent of film type, so the user can select any type of film and any combination of lead thickness for the front and back screens. The model uses energy dependent x-ray photon absorption cross-sections to compute the production of electrons in the lead. A Monte Carlo calculation was used to determine energy dependent electron penetration in the lead and the film. The model calculates electron attenuation in the film emulsion, the film substrate and both front and back lead screens and determines the intensification effect as a function of the energy deposited in the film. For model validation, lead screen intensification was studied with x-ray generator settings ranging from 75 to 320 kvp and using various thicknesses of aluminum and iron attenuators to filter the x-ray beam. A high precision motion control system coupled with a high purity germanium detector was used to study the energy spectra

  14. Do social and environmental screens influence ethical portfolio performance? Evidence from Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Ortas

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This work aims to test whether social and environmental screening processes could determine the financial performance of ethical or Socially Responsible Investment (SRI strategies in the European context. We compare the risk-adjusted returns and systematic risk levels obtained by the two mainstream SRI equity indexes in Europe with those achieved by their official benchmarks. We find that, although these SRI indexes do not underperform their benchmarks in terms of risk-adjusted returns, they experience higher levels of risk. Additionally, the results show that higher screening intensity results in higher risk for the SRI indexes. Furthermore, the underperformance in terms of risk associated with the SRI indexes is worse in periods when there is a market downturn. This may indicate that SRI indexes are more sensitive to changes in the market cycle, because SRI indexes include companies that are more affected by market fluctuations.

  15. Quantifying environmental performance of Jali screen facades for contemporary buildings in Lahore, Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batool, Ayesha

    Jali screens are traditional window treatments in vernacular buildings throughout South Asia and the Middle East. Contemporary builders are starting to incorporate Jali screens as decorative facade elements; however, architects and scholars have largely ignored the impact of Jali screens on overall building energy and day-lighting performance. This research evaluates the effect of Jali screens, across a range of perforation ratios, on energy utilization and day-lighting quality in contemporary office buildings. The data collection and analysis is through fieldwork in Lahore, Pakistan, as well as through computational energy modeling. Results demonstrate that Jali screens have a promising positive impact on cooling loads and may improve visual comfort. The findings suggest a holistic perspective combining traditional architecture and performance enhancement by architects and designers.

  16. Screening compounds for early warnings about environmental pollution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Metcalf, R.L.

    1974-01-01

    A laboratory model ecosystem with a terrestrial-aquatic interface has been used to evaluate the potential environmental effects of nearly 100 micropollutants including insecticides, fungicides, plasticizers, heat transfer agents, flame retardants, pharmaceuticals, industrial chemicals and heavy metals. These have been evaluated largely by radiotracer techniques but atomic absorption spectrometry has also been used. Emphasis has been placed upon degradation pathways in a variety of organisms and upon quantitative data on biodegradation and bioaccumulation. The laboratory model ecosystem has substantial value as an environmental early warning element in evaluating the pollutant potential of various chemicals which may enter into the environment in trace amounts either purposely in various use patterns or accidentally from effluents of manufacture or waste products. (U.S.)

  17. Environmental Modeling Center

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Environmental Modeling Center provides the computational tools to perform geostatistical analysis, to model ground water and atmospheric releases for comparison...

  18. EIA screening in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Eskild Holm; Christensen, Per; Kørnøv, Lone

    2005-01-01

    The article points out that EIA screening is effectively a regulatory instrument and it can be a cost-effective instrument with environmental benefits.......The article points out that EIA screening is effectively a regulatory instrument and it can be a cost-effective instrument with environmental benefits....

  19. Efficient screening of environmental isolates for Saccharomyces cerevisiae strains that are suitable for brewing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujihara, Hidehiko; Hino, Mika; Takashita, Hideharu; Kajiwara, Yasuhiro; Okamoto, Keiko; Furukawa, Kensuke

    2014-01-01

    We developed an efficient screening method for Saccharomyces cerevisiae strains from environmental isolates. MultiPlex PCR was performed targeting four brewing S. cerevisiae genes (SSU1, AWA1, BIO6, and FLO1). At least three genes among the four were amplified from all S. cerevisiae strains. The use of this method allowed us to successfully obtain S. cerevisiae strains.

  20. [Economic impact of lung cancer screening in France: A modeling study].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gendarme, S; Perrot, É; Reskot, F; Bhoowabul, V; Fourre, G; Souquet, P-J; Milleron, B; Couraud, S

    2017-09-01

    The National Lung Screening Trial found that, in a selected population with a high risk of lung cancer, an annual low-dose CT-scan decreased lung cancer mortality by 20% and overall mortality by 7% compared to annual chest X-Ray. In France, a work group stated that individual screening should be considered in this setting. However, the economic impact of an organized and generalized (to all eligible individuals) screening in France was never reported. This is a modeling study using French population demographic data and published data from randomized screening trials. We used the same selection criteria as NLST: 55-74-year-old smokers for at least 30 pack-years, current smoker or quit less than 15 years. We computed a second model including also 50-54-year-old individuals. Then, we used different participation rates: 65%, 45%, and 32%. According to the considered model, there would be 1,650,588 to 2,283,993 subjects eligible to screening in France. According to the model and participation rate, lung cancer screening would diagnose 3600 to 10,118 stages 1/2 lung cancer each year. There would be 5991 to 16,839 false-positives, of whom 1416 to 3981 would undergo unnecessary surgery. Screening policy would cost 105 to 215 € million per year. However, increasing the price of a cigarette pack by 0.05 to 0.10 € would fully cover the screening costs. Participation rate is a key point for screening impact. Screening could be easily funded by a small increase in cigarette prices. Copyright © 2015 SPLF. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  1. Environmental model for a capital city

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Eugenia Toca Torres

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available From a review of the various options for modeling a sustainable development in its environmental dimension, this research proposes a model of environmental impact for Bogota, using the Vensim PLE software to model the pollution, the pollution load and soil contamination. The model includes a limited number of endogenous variables, as well as a greater number of exogenous variables. This modeling allows us to anticipate the environmental situation in the capital, in order to support public policies for addressing issues such as economic sanctions and moral regulations on emissions, discharges and waste, environmental measures and environmentally friendly practices

  2. Air Pollution Dispersion Modeling of Abadan oil Refinery Using SCREEN3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hedayati Rad, F.; Salman-Mahini, A.; Mirkarimi, H.

    2016-01-01

    Air pollution is a major problem that has been recognized throughout the world. Refineriers normally create environmental pollution through emissions of pollutants gaseous from a variety of sources. Analysing air pollution distribution and dispersion can help in reducing the negative effects. In this study NO_X and SO_2 emissions and distributions were investigated for Abadan oil refinery using SCREEN3 software. In this softweare, wind speed and direction, air temperature, location and physical characteristics of chimnies and atmospheric stability were taken into consideration.The concentration of pollutants in different distances from the stacks in the range 25 km were predicted and mapped in Idrisi software. The output from software SCREEN3 for emissions from stacks were also examined and compared with the standard output of the refineries. According to our results, the concentration of pollutants in summer and autumn seasons exceeds of the environmental standards.

  3. Isolation, Characterization and Identification of Environmental Bacterial Isolates with Screening for Antagonism Against Three Bacterial Targets

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-04-01

    ISOLATES WITH SCREENING FOR ANTAGONISM AGAINST THREE BACTERIAL TARGETS 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S...Identification of environmental isolates followed the flowchart from “Bergey’s Manual of Determinative Bacteriology” (Holt et al. 1994), which

  4. The application of system dynamics modelling to environmental health decision-making and policy - a scoping review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Currie, Danielle J; Smith, Carl; Jagals, Paul

    2018-03-27

    Policy and decision-making processes are routinely challenged by the complex and dynamic nature of environmental health problems. System dynamics modelling has demonstrated considerable value across a number of different fields to help decision-makers understand and predict the dynamic behaviour of complex systems in support the development of effective policy actions. In this scoping review we investigate if, and in what contexts, system dynamics modelling is being used to inform policy or decision-making processes related to environmental health. Four electronic databases and the grey literature were systematically searched to identify studies that intersect the areas environmental health, system dynamics modelling, and decision-making. Studies identified in the initial screening were further screened for their contextual, methodological and application-related relevancy. Studies deemed 'relevant' or 'highly relevant' according to all three criteria were included in this review. Key themes related to the rationale, impact and limitation of using system dynamics in the context of environmental health decision-making and policy were analysed. We identified a limited number of relevant studies (n = 15), two-thirds of which were conducted between 2011 and 2016. The majority of applications occurred in non-health related sectors (n = 9) including transportation, public utilities, water, housing, food, agriculture, and urban and regional planning. Applications were primarily targeted at micro-level (local, community or grassroots) decision-making processes (n = 9), with macro-level (national or international) decision-making to a lesser degree. There was significant heterogeneity in the stated rationales for using system dynamics and the intended impact of the system dynamics model on decision-making processes. A series of user-related, technical and application-related limitations and challenges were identified. None of the reported limitations or challenges

  5. Simulation models in population breast cancer screening: A systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koleva-Kolarova, Rositsa G; Zhan, Zhuozhao; Greuter, Marcel J W; Feenstra, Talitha L; De Bock, Geertruida H

    2015-08-01

    The aim of this review was to critically evaluate published simulation models for breast cancer screening of the general population and provide a direction for future modeling. A systematic literature search was performed to identify simulation models with more than one application. A framework for qualitative assessment which incorporated model type; input parameters; modeling approach, transparency of input data sources/assumptions, sensitivity analyses and risk of bias; validation, and outcomes was developed. Predicted mortality reduction (MR) and cost-effectiveness (CE) were compared to estimates from meta-analyses of randomized control trials (RCTs) and acceptability thresholds. Seven original simulation models were distinguished, all sharing common input parameters. The modeling approach was based on tumor progression (except one model) with internal and cross validation of the resulting models, but without any external validation. Differences in lead times for invasive or non-invasive tumors, and the option for cancers not to progress were not explicitly modeled. The models tended to overestimate the MR (11-24%) due to screening as compared to optimal RCTs 10% (95% CI - 2-21%) MR. Only recently, potential harms due to regular breast cancer screening were reported. Most scenarios resulted in acceptable cost-effectiveness estimates given current thresholds. The selected models have been repeatedly applied in various settings to inform decision making and the critical analysis revealed high risk of bias in their outcomes. Given the importance of the models, there is a need for externally validated models which use systematical evidence for input data to allow for more critical evaluation of breast cancer screening. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. A Model for determination of screening levels for radioactive elements in soil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peres, Ana C.; Hiromoto, Goro

    2008-01-01

    Full text: At the present, decision about clean-up of Brazilian sites contaminated with radioactive isotopes is addressed on a case-by-case basis, since there is no general guidance or recommendation to support actions in early phases of the problem identification. For chemicals, CETESB - the governmental organization responsible for preventing and controlling environmental pollution in Sao Paulo State - established quality reference values for prevention and intervention, as the first step to implement a remediation policy based on human health risk assessment. The aim of this study is to develop a methodology for the establishment of target values for radioactive soil contamination, as far as possible consistent and compatible with the approach adopted by CETESB for sites contaminated with chemicals. The following steps have been addressed in this study: conceptual scenario and model development; codification of the equations in an electronic spreadsheet; selection of proper input values; derivation of the intervention levels for selected radionuclides using Monte Carlo methods. The mathematical model developed was mainly based on the equations used by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements for soil screening purposes. Results are presented for selected natural and man-made radioactive isotopes. (author)

  7. COSMO-RS-based extractant screening for phenol extraction as model system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Burghoff, B.; Goetheer, E.L.V.; Haan, A.B. de

    2008-01-01

    The focus of this investigation is the development of a fast and reliable extractant screening approach. Phenol extraction is selected as the model process. A quantum chemical conductor-like screening model for real solvents (COSMO-RS) is combined with molecular design considerations. For this

  8. ScreenBEAM: a novel meta-analysis algorithm for functional genomics screens via Bayesian hierarchical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Jiyang; Silva, Jose; Califano, Andrea

    2016-01-15

    Functional genomics (FG) screens, using RNAi or CRISPR technology, have become a standard tool for systematic, genome-wide loss-of-function studies for therapeutic target discovery. As in many large-scale assays, however, off-target effects, variable reagents' potency and experimental noise must be accounted for appropriately control for false positives. Indeed, rigorous statistical analysis of high-throughput FG screening data remains challenging, particularly when integrative analyses are used to combine multiple sh/sgRNAs targeting the same gene in the library. We use large RNAi and CRISPR repositories that are publicly available to evaluate a novel meta-analysis approach for FG screens via Bayesian hierarchical modeling, Screening Bayesian Evaluation and Analysis Method (ScreenBEAM). Results from our analysis show that the proposed strategy, which seamlessly combines all available data, robustly outperforms classical algorithms developed for microarray data sets as well as recent approaches designed for next generation sequencing technologies. Remarkably, the ScreenBEAM algorithm works well even when the quality of FG screens is relatively low, which accounts for about 80-95% of the public datasets. R package and source code are available at: https://github.com/jyyu/ScreenBEAM. ac2248@columbia.edu, jose.silva@mssm.edu, yujiyang@gmail.com Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  9. Smokes and obscurants: A health and environmental effects data base assessment: A first-order, environmental screening and ranking of Army smokes and obscurants: Phase 1 report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shinn, J.H.; Martins, S.A.; Cederwall, P.L.; Gratt, L.B.

    1985-03-01

    An initial environmental screening and ranking is provided for each Army smoke and obscurant (S and O) depending on smoke type and smoke-generating device. This was done according to the magnitude of the impact area, the characteristic environmental concentration, the relative inhalation toxicity, the relative toxicity when ingested by animals, the aquatic toxicity, the environmental mobility when freshly deposited, and the ultimate mobility and fate in the environment. The major smoke types considered were various forms of white phosphorus (WP), red phosphorus (RP), hexachloroethane-derived smokes (HC), fog oil (SGF-2), diesel fuel smokes (DF), and some infrared obscuring agents (IR).

  10. The Dynamics of an HIV/AIDS Model with Screened Disease Carriers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. D. Hove-Musekwa

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The presence of carriers usually complicates the dynamics and prevention of a disease. They are not recognized as disease cases themselves unless they are screened and they usually spread the infection without them being aware. We argue that this has been one of the major causes of the spread of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV. We propose, in this paper, a model for the heterogeneous transmission of HIV/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome in the presence of disease carriers. The model allows us to assess the role of screening, as an intervention program that can slow the epidemic. A threshold value ψ*, for the screening rate is obtained. It is shown numerically that if 80% or more of the carrier population is screened, the epidemic can be contained. The qualitative analysis is done in terms of the model reproduction number R. The model has two equilibria, the disease free equilibrium and a unique endemic equilibrium. The disease free equilibrium is globally stable of R  1. A detailed discussion of the model reproduction number is given and numerical simulations are done to show the role of some of the important model parameters.

  11. Cost Effective Community Based Dementia Screening: A Markov Model Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erin Saito

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Given the dementia epidemic and the increasing cost of healthcare, there is a need to assess the economic benefit of community based dementia screening programs. Materials and Methods. Markov model simulations were generated using data obtained from a community based dementia screening program over a one-year period. The models simulated yearly costs of caring for patients based on clinical transitions beginning in pre dementia and extending for 10 years. Results. A total of 93 individuals (74 female, 19 male were screened for dementia and 12 meeting clinical criteria for either mild cognitive impairment (n=7 or dementia (n=5 were identified. Assuming early therapeutic intervention beginning during the year of dementia detection, Markov model simulations demonstrated 9.8% reduction in cost of dementia care over a ten-year simulation period, primarily through increased duration in mild stages and reduced time in more costly moderate and severe stages. Discussion. Community based dementia screening can reduce healthcare costs associated with caring for demented individuals through earlier detection and treatment, resulting in proportionately reduced time in more costly advanced stages.

  12. Characterising performance of environmental models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bennett, N.D.; Croke, B.F.W.; Guariso, G.; Guillaume, J.H.A.; Hamilton, S.H.; Jakeman, A.J.; Marsili-Libelli, S.; Newham, L.T.H.; Norton, J.; Perrin, C.; Pierce, S.; Robson, B.; Seppelt, R.; Voinov, A.; Fath, B.D.; Andreassian, V.

    2013-01-01

    In order to use environmental models effectively for management and decision-making, it is vital to establish an appropriate level of confidence in their performance. This paper reviews techniques available across various fields for characterising the performance of environmental models with focus

  13. Screening preschool children for fine motor skills: environmental influence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comuk-Balci, Nilay; Bayoglu, Birgul; Tekindal, Agah; Kerem-Gunel, Mintaze; Anlar, Banu

    2016-03-01

    [Purpose] The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of gender and family factors on performance in the fine motor domain of the Denver II developmental screening test. [Subjects and Methods] Data were obtained from 2038 healthy children, 999 boys (49%) and 1039 girls (51%) in four age groups: 0-24 months (57%), 25-40 months (21.1%), 41-56 months (10.4%), and 57-82 months (11.5%). [Results] Female gender, higher maternal age, especially in children older than 24 months, and higher maternal education were associated with earlier accomplishment of fine motor items. Higher socioeconomic status was correlated with fine motor skills more noticeably at young ages. [Conclusion] The results of this study support the role of environmental factors in the interpretation of fine motor test results and point to target groups for intervention, such as infants in the low socioeconomic group and preschool children of less educated mothers. Studies in different populations may reveal particular patterns that affect child development.

  14. QSAR Methods to Screen Endocrine Disruptors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicola Porta

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The identification of endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs is one of the important goals of environmental chemical hazard screening. We report on in silico methods addressing toxicological studies about EDCs with a special focus on the application of QSAR models for screening purpose. Since Estrogen-like (ER activity has been extensively studied, the majority of the available models are based on ER-related endpoints. Some of these models are here reviewed and described. As example for their application, we screen an assembled dataset of candidate substitutes for some known EDCs belonging to the chemical classes of phthalates, bisphenols and parabens, selected considering their toxicological relevance and broad application, with the general aim of preliminary assessing their ED potential. The goal of the substitution processes is to advance inherently safer chemicals and products, consistent with the principles of green chemistry. Results suggest that the integration of a family of different models accounting for different endpoints can be a convenient way to describe ED as properly as possible and allow also both to increase the confidence of the predictions and to maximize the probability that most active compounds are correctly found.

  15. Hazard screening application guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-06-01

    The basic purpose of hazard screening is to group precesses, facilities, and proposed modifications according to the magnitude of their hazards so as to determine the need for and extent of follow on safety analysis. A hazard is defined as a material, energy source, or operation that has the potential to cause injury or illness in human beings. The purpose of this document is to give guidance and provide standard methods for performing hazard screening. Hazard screening is applied to new and existing facilities and processes as well as to proposed modifications to existing facilities and processes. The hazard screening process evaluates an identified hazards in terms of the effects on people, both on-site and off-site. The process uses bounding analyses with no credit given for mitigation of an accident with the exception of certain containers meeting DOT specifications. The process is restricted to human safety issues only. Environmental effects are addressed by the environmental program. Interfaces with environmental organizations will be established in order to share information

  16. In Vivo RNAi-Based Screens: Studies in Model Organisms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miki Yamamoto-Hino

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available RNA interference (RNAi is a technique widely used for gene silencing in organisms and cultured cells, and depends on sequence homology between double-stranded RNA (dsRNA and target mRNA molecules. Numerous cell-based genome-wide screens have successfully identified novel genes involved in various biological processes, including signal transduction, cell viability/death, and cell morphology. However, cell-based screens cannot address cellular processes such as development, behavior, and immunity. Drosophila and Caenorhabditis elegans are two model organisms whose whole bodies and individual body parts have been subjected to RNAi-based genome-wide screening. Moreover, Drosophila RNAi allows the manipulation of gene function in a spatiotemporal manner when it is implemented using the Gal4/UAS system. Using this inducible RNAi technique, various large-scale screens have been performed in Drosophila, demonstrating that the method is straightforward and valuable. However, accumulated results reveal that the results of RNAi-based screens have relatively high levels of error, such as false positives and negatives. Here, we review in vivo RNAi screens in Drosophila and the methods that could be used to remove ambiguity from screening results.

  17. Modeling Environmental Literacy of University Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teksoz, Gaye; Sahin, Elvan; Tekkaya-Oztekin, Ceren

    2012-01-01

    The present study proposed an Environmental Literacy Components Model to explain how environmental attitudes, environmental responsibility, environmental concern, and environmental knowledge as well as outdoor activities related to each other. A total of 1,345 university students responded to an environmental literacy survey (Kaplowitz and Levine…

  18. Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. A. Wasiolek

    2003-06-27

    ], Section 6.2). Parameter values developed in this report, and the related FEPs, are listed in Table 1-1. The relationship between the parameters and FEPs was based on a comparison of the parameter definition and the FEP descriptions as presented in BSC (2003 [160699], Section 6.2). The parameter values developed in this report support the biosphere model and are reflected in the TSPA through the biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). Biosphere modeling focuses on radionuclides screened for the TSPA-LA (BSC 2002 [160059]). The same list of radionuclides is used in this analysis (Section 6.1.4). The analysis considers two human exposure scenarios (groundwater and volcanic ash) and climate change (Section 6.1.5). This analysis combines and revises two previous reports, ''Transfer Coefficient Analysis'' (CRWMS M&O 2000 [152435]) and ''Environmental Transport Parameter Analysis'' (CRWMS M&O 2001 [152434]), because the new ERMYN biosphere model requires a redefined set of input parameters. The scope of this analysis includes providing a technical basis for the selection of radionuclide- and element-specific biosphere parameters (except for Kd) that are important for calculating BDCFs based on the available radionuclide inventory abstraction data. The environmental transport parameter values were developed specifically for use in the biosphere model and may not be appropriate for other applications.

  19. Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wasiolek, M. A.

    2003-01-01

    developed in this report, and the related FEPs, are listed in Table 1-1. The relationship between the parameters and FEPs was based on a comparison of the parameter definition and the FEP descriptions as presented in BSC (2003 [160699], Section 6.2). The parameter values developed in this report support the biosphere model and are reflected in the TSPA through the biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). Biosphere modeling focuses on radionuclides screened for the TSPA-LA (BSC 2002 [160059]). The same list of radionuclides is used in this analysis (Section 6.1.4). The analysis considers two human exposure scenarios (groundwater and volcanic ash) and climate change (Section 6.1.5). This analysis combines and revises two previous reports, ''Transfer Coefficient Analysis'' (CRWMS MandO 2000 [152435]) and ''Environmental Transport Parameter Analysis'' (CRWMS MandO 2001 [152434]), because the new ERMYN biosphere model requires a redefined set of input parameters. The scope of this analysis includes providing a technical basis for the selection of radionuclide- and element-specific biosphere parameters (except for Kd) that are important for calculating BDCFs based on the available radionuclide inventory abstraction data. The environmental transport parameter values were developed specifically for use in the biosphere model and may not be appropriate for other applications

  20. Validation of Models Used to Inform Colorectal Cancer Screening Guidelines: Accuracy and Implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rutter, Carolyn M; Knudsen, Amy B; Marsh, Tracey L; Doria-Rose, V Paul; Johnson, Eric; Pabiniak, Chester; Kuntz, Karen M; van Ballegooijen, Marjolein; Zauber, Ann G; Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris

    2016-07-01

    Microsimulation models synthesize evidence about disease processes and interventions, providing a method for predicting long-term benefits and harms of prevention, screening, and treatment strategies. Because models often require assumptions about unobservable processes, assessing a model's predictive accuracy is important. We validated 3 colorectal cancer (CRC) microsimulation models against outcomes from the United Kingdom Flexible Sigmoidoscopy Screening (UKFSS) Trial, a randomized controlled trial that examined the effectiveness of one-time flexible sigmoidoscopy screening to reduce CRC mortality. The models incorporate different assumptions about the time from adenoma initiation to development of preclinical and symptomatic CRC. Analyses compare model predictions to study estimates across a range of outcomes to provide insight into the accuracy of model assumptions. All 3 models accurately predicted the relative reduction in CRC mortality 10 years after screening (predicted hazard ratios, with 95% percentile intervals: 0.56 [0.44, 0.71], 0.63 [0.51, 0.75], 0.68 [0.53, 0.83]; estimated with 95% confidence interval: 0.56 [0.45, 0.69]). Two models with longer average preclinical duration accurately predicted the relative reduction in 10-year CRC incidence. Two models with longer mean sojourn time accurately predicted the number of screen-detected cancers. All 3 models predicted too many proximal adenomas among patients referred to colonoscopy. Model accuracy can only be established through external validation. Analyses such as these are therefore essential for any decision model. Results supported the assumptions that the average time from adenoma initiation to development of preclinical cancer is long (up to 25 years), and mean sojourn time is close to 4 years, suggesting the window for early detection and intervention by screening is relatively long. Variation in dwell time remains uncertain and could have important clinical and policy implications. © The

  1. Printer model for dot-on-dot halftone screens

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balasubramanian, Raja

    1995-04-01

    A printer model is described for dot-on-dot halftone screens. For a given input CMYK signal, the model predicts the resulting spectral reflectance of the printed patch. The model is derived in two steps. First, the C, M, Y, K dot growth functions are determined which relate the input digital value to the actual dot area coverages of the colorants. Next, the reflectance of a patch is predicted as a weighted combination of the reflectances of the four solid C, M, Y, K patches and their various overlays. This approach is analogous to the Neugebauer model, with the random mixing equations being replaced by dot-on-dot mixing equations. A Yule-Neilsen correction factor is incorporated to account for light scattering within the paper. The dot area functions and Yule-Neilsen parameter are chosen to optimize the fit to a set of training data. The model is also extended to a cellular framework, requiring additional measurements. The model is tested with a four color xerographic printer employing a line-on-line halftone screen. CIE L*a*b* errors are obtained between measurements and model predictions. The Yule-Neilsen factor significantly decreases the model error. Accuracy is also increased with the use of a cellular framework.

  2. Reliability and validity of psychosocial and environmental correlates measures of physical activity and screen-based behaviors among Chinese children in Hong Kong

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salmon Jo

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Insufficient participation in physical activity and excessive screen time have been observed among Chinese children. The role of social and environmental factors in shaping physical activity and sedentary behaviors among Chinese children is under-investigated. The purpose of the present study was to assess the reliability and validity of a questionnaire to measure child- and parent-reported psychosocial and environmental correlates of physical activity and screen-based behaviors among Chinese children in Hong Kong. Methods A total of 303 schoolchildren aged 9-14 years and their parents volunteered to participate in this study and 160 of them completed the questionnaire twice within an interval of 10 days. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs, kappa statistics, and percent agreement were performed to evaluate test-retest reliability of the continuous and categorical variables, respectively. Exploratory factor analyses (EFAs were conducted to assess convergent validity of the emergent scales. Cronbach's alpha and ICCs were performed to assess internal and test-retest reliability of the emergent scales. Criterion validity was assessed by correlating psychosocial and environmental measures with self-reported physical activity and screen-based behaviors, measured by a validated questionnaire. Results Reliability statistics for both child- and parent-reported continuous variables showed acceptable consistency for all of the ICC values greater than 0.70. Kappa statistics showed fair to perfect test-retest reliability for the categorical items. Adequate internal consistency and test-retest reliability were observed in most of the emergent scales. Criterion validity assessed by correlating psychosocial and environmental measures with child-reported physical activity found associations with physical activity in the self-efficacy scale (r = 0.25, P r = 0.25, P r = 0.14, P r = -0.22, P r = 0.12, P = 0.053. Conclusions The findings

  3. Life cycle assessment of intensive striped catfish farming in the Mekong Delta for screening hotspots as input to environmental policy and research agenda

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bosma, R.H.; Pham Thi Ahn,; Potting, J.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose Intensive striped catfish production in the Mekong Delta has, in recent years, raised environmental concerns. We conducted a stakeholder-based screening life cycle assessment (LCA) of the intensive farming system to determine the critical environmental impact and their causative processes in

  4. Suomi NPP VIIRS solar diffuser screen transmittance model and its applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lei, Ning; Xiong, Xiaoxiong; Mcintire, Jeff

    2017-11-01

    The visible infrared imaging radiometer suite on the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite calibrates its reflective solar bands through observations of a sunlit solar diffuser (SD) panel. Sunlight passes through a perforated plate, referred to as the SD screen, before reaching the SD. It is critical to know whether the SD screen transmittance measured prelaunch is accurate. Several factors such as misalignments of the SD panel and the measurement apparatus could lead to errors in the measured transmittance and thus adversely impact on-orbit calibration quality through the SD. We develop a mathematical model to describe the transmittance as a function of the angles that incident light makes with the SD screen, and apply the model to fit the prelaunch measured transmittance. The results reveal that the model does not reproduce the measured transmittance unless the size of the apertures in the SD screen is quite different from the design value. We attribute the difference to the orientation alignment errors for the SD panel and the measurement apparatus. We model the alignment errors and apply our transmittance model to fit the prelaunch transmittance to retrieve the "true" transmittance. To use this model correctly, we also examine the finite source size effect on the transmittance. Furthermore, we compare the product of the retrieved "true" transmittance and the prelaunch SD bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) value to the value derived from on-orbit data to determine whether the prelaunch SD BRDF value is relatively accurate. The model is significant in that it can evaluate whether the SD screen transmittance measured prelaunch is accurate and help retrieve the true transmittance from the transmittance with measurement errors, consequently resulting in a more accurate sensor data product by the same amount.

  5. Implications of Nine Risk Prediction Models for Selecting Ever-Smokers for Computed Tomography Lung Cancer Screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katki, Hormuzd A; Kovalchik, Stephanie A; Petito, Lucia C; Cheung, Li C; Jacobs, Eric; Jemal, Ahmedin; Berg, Christine D; Chaturvedi, Anil K

    2018-05-15

    Lung cancer screening guidelines recommend using individualized risk models to refer ever-smokers for screening. However, different models select different screening populations. The performance of each model in selecting ever-smokers for screening is unknown. To compare the U.S. screening populations selected by 9 lung cancer risk models (the Bach model; the Spitz model; the Liverpool Lung Project [LLP] model; the LLP Incidence Risk Model [LLPi]; the Hoggart model; the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial Model 2012 [PLCOM2012]; the Pittsburgh Predictor; the Lung Cancer Risk Assessment Tool [LCRAT]; and the Lung Cancer Death Risk Assessment Tool [LCDRAT]) and to examine their predictive performance in 2 cohorts. Population-based prospective studies. United States. Models selected U.S. screening populations by using data from the National Health Interview Survey from 2010 to 2012. Model performance was evaluated using data from 337 388 ever-smokers in the National Institutes of Health-AARP Diet and Health Study and 72 338 ever-smokers in the CPS-II (Cancer Prevention Study II) Nutrition Survey cohort. Model calibration (ratio of model-predicted to observed cases [expected-observed ratio]) and discrimination (area under the curve [AUC]). At a 5-year risk threshold of 2.0%, the models chose U.S. screening populations ranging from 7.6 million to 26 million ever-smokers. These disagreements occurred because, in both validation cohorts, 4 models (the Bach model, PLCOM2012, LCRAT, and LCDRAT) were well-calibrated (expected-observed ratio range, 0.92 to 1.12) and had higher AUCs (range, 0.75 to 0.79) than 5 models that generally overestimated risk (expected-observed ratio range, 0.83 to 3.69) and had lower AUCs (range, 0.62 to 0.75). The 4 best-performing models also had the highest sensitivity at a fixed specificity (and vice versa) and similar discrimination at a fixed risk threshold. These models showed better agreement on size of the

  6. Preliminary Screening Analysis for the Environmental Risk Evaluation System: Task 2.1.1: Evaluating Effects of Stressors – Fiscal Year 2010 Progress Report: Environmental Effects of Marine and Hydrokinetic Energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Richard M.; Copping, Andrea E.; Van Cleve, Frances B.

    2010-11-15

    Possible environmental effects of marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) energy development are not well understood, and yet regulatory agencies are required to make decisions in spite of substantial uncertainty about environmental impacts and their long-term effects. An understanding of risk associated with likely interactions between MHK installations and aquatic receptors, including animals, habitats, and ecosystems, can help reduce the level of uncertainty and focus regulatory actions and scientific studies on interactions of most concern. As a first step in developing the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES), PNNL scientists conducted a preliminary risk screening analysis on three initial MHK cases - a tidal project in Puget Sound using Open Hydro turbines, a wave project off the coast of Oregon using Ocean Power Technologies point attenuator buoys, and a riverine current project in the Mississippi River using Free Flow turbines. Through an iterative process, the screening analysis revealed that top-tier stressors in all three cases were the effects of the dynamic physical presence of the device (e.g., strike), accidents, and effects of the static physical presence of the device (e.g., habitat alteration). Receptor interactions with these stressors at the four highest tiers of risk were dominated by marine mammals (cetaceans and pinnipeds) and birds (diving and non-diving); only the riverine case (Free Flow) included different receptors in the third tier (fish) and the fourth tier (benthic invertebrates). Although this screening analysis provides a preliminary analysis of vulnerability of environmental receptors to stressors associated with MHK installations, probability analysis, especially of risk associated with chemical toxicity and accidents such as oil spills or lost gear, will be necessary to further understand high-priority risks. Subject matter expert review of this process and results is required and is

  7. Model evaluation methodology applicable to environmental assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaeffer, D.L.

    1979-08-01

    A model evaluation methodology is presented to provide a systematic framework within which the adequacy of environmental assessment models might be examined. The necessity for such a tool is motivated by the widespread use of models for predicting the environmental consequences of various human activities and by the reliance on these model predictions for deciding whether a particular activity requires the deployment of costly control measures. Consequently, the uncertainty associated with prediction must be established for the use of such models. The methodology presented here consists of six major tasks: model examination, algorithm examination, data evaluation, sensitivity analyses, validation studies, and code comparison. This methodology is presented in the form of a flowchart to show the logical interrelatedness of the various tasks. Emphasis has been placed on identifying those parameters which are most important in determining the predictive outputs of a model. Importance has been attached to the process of collecting quality data. A method has been developed for analyzing multiplicative chain models when the input parameters are statistically independent and lognormally distributed. Latin hypercube sampling has been offered as a promising candidate for doing sensitivity analyses. Several different ways of viewing the validity of a model have been presented. Criteria are presented for selecting models for environmental assessment purposes

  8. Suspect screening of large numbers of emerging contaminants in environmental waters using artificial neural networks for chromatographic retention time prediction and high resolution mass spectrometry data analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bade, Richard; Bijlsma, Lubertus; Miller, Thomas H; Barron, Leon P; Sancho, Juan Vicente; Hernández, Felix

    2015-12-15

    The recent development of broad-scope high resolution mass spectrometry (HRMS) screening methods has resulted in a much improved capability for new compound identification in environmental samples. However, positive identifications at the ng/L concentration level rely on analytical reference standards for chromatographic retention time (tR) and mass spectral comparisons. Chromatographic tR prediction can play a role in increasing confidence in suspect screening efforts for new compounds in the environment, especially when standards are not available, but reliable methods are lacking. The current work focuses on the development of artificial neural networks (ANNs) for tR prediction in gradient reversed-phase liquid chromatography and applied along with HRMS data to suspect screening of wastewater and environmental surface water samples. Based on a compound tR dataset of >500 compounds, an optimized 4-layer back-propagation multi-layer perceptron model enabled predictions for 85% of all compounds to within 2min of their measured tR for training (n=344) and verification (n=100) datasets. To evaluate the ANN ability for generalization to new data, the model was further tested using 100 randomly selected compounds and revealed 95% prediction accuracy within the 2-minute elution interval. Given the increasing concern on the presence of drug metabolites and other transformation products (TPs) in the aquatic environment, the model was applied along with HRMS data for preliminary identification of pharmaceutically-related compounds in real samples. Examples of compounds where reference standards were subsequently acquired and later confirmed are also presented. To our knowledge, this work presents for the first time, the successful application of an accurate retention time predictor and HRMS data-mining using the largest number of compounds to preliminarily identify new or emerging contaminants in wastewater and surface waters. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights

  9. Modeling fiber motion in a pulp pressure screen: the effect of slot shape

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dong, S.; Salcudean, M.; Gartshore, I.

    2003-01-01

    A pressure screen is a piece of equipment in the pulp and paper industry used either to remove contaminants from the pulp suspension or to separate fibers having different properties. Contaminants such as fiber bundles, bark and plastic specks are introduced when fibers are separated from the wood by mechanical or chemical pulping processes. Contaminants significantly affect the strength and smoothness of the paper and must be removed before the final paper is produced. The screen plate is a critical part of the pressure screen and its design is the key to screen performance. This paper uses a new and comprehensive CFD simulation tool to examine the flow and fiber behavior in a single slot screen having any reasonable slot shape. -This simulation tool includes three coupled models: first, the flow model solves the Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equation using the standard k - ε turbulence model to predict the flow field in the equipment. Second, a three-dimensional flexible fiber model is used to track the fiber trajectory in the screen. Third, a very general wall model is used to deal with the case when a fiber touches the equipment wall. The simulated results show that the slot shape has a critical influence on fiber behavior and screen performance. Three general slot shapes were investigated: the smooth slot, the step-step contour slot and slope-slope contour slot. Of these the slope-slope contour slot provides the best passage for the fibers with a length of 1mm and 3mm. (author)

  10. An experimental investigation of head loss through a triangular “V- shaped” screen

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahmoud Zayed

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Common traditional screens (screens perpendicular and vertical to the flow direction face extensive problems with screen blockage, which can result in adverse hydraulic, environmental, and economic consequences. Experimentally, this paper presents an advanced trash screen concept to reduce traditional screen problems and improve the hydraulic performance of screens. The traditional screen is re-developed using a triangular V shape with circular bars in the flow direction. Triangular V-shaped screen models with different angles, blockage ratios, circular bar designs, and flow discharges were tested in a scaled physical model. The analyses provide promising results. The findings showed that the head loss coefficients were effectively reduced by using the triangular V-shaped screens with circular bars (α < 90° in comparison with the traditional trash screen (α = 90. Additionally, the results indicated that the head loss across the screen increased with increasing flow discharge and blockage ratio. The losses considerably increase by large percentages when the screen becomes blocked by 40%. Low head losses were recorded at low screen angles for the circular bars. A new head loss equation is recommended for triangular screens with circular bars.

  11. Bioprospecting of Thermostable Cellulolytic Enzymes through Modeling and Virtual Screening Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Navanietha Krishnaraj

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Cellulolytic enzymes are promising candidates for the use of cellulose in any bioprocess operations and for the disposal of the cellulosic wastes in an environmentally benign manner. Cellulases from thermophiles have the advantage of hydrolyzing cellulose at wider range of operating conditions unlike the normal enzymes. Herein we report the modeled structures of cellulolytic enzymes (endoglucanase, cellobiohydrolase and ß-glucosidase from a thermophilic bacterium,Clostridium thermocellumand their validation using Root Mean Square Deviation (RMSD and Ramachandran plot analyses. Further, the molecular interactions of the modeled enzyme with cellulose were analyzed using molecular docking technique. The results of molecular docking showed that the endoglucanase, cellobiohydrolase and ß-glucosidase had the binding affinities of -10.7, -9.0 and -10.8 kcal/mol, respectively. A correlation between the binding affinity of the endoglucanase with cellulose and the enzyme activity was also demonstrated. The results showed that the binding affinities of cellulases with cellulose could be used as a tool to assess the hydrolytic activity of cellulases. The results obtained could be used in virtual screening of cellulolytic enzymes based on the molecular interactions with the substrate, and aid in developing systems biology models of thermophiles for industrial biotechnology applications.

  12. Mathematic model analysis of Gaussian beam propagation through an arbitrary thickness random phase screen.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Yuzhen; Guo, Jin; Wang, Rui; Wang, Tingfeng

    2011-09-12

    In order to research the statistical properties of Gaussian beam propagation through an arbitrary thickness random phase screen for adaptive optics and laser communication application in the laboratory, we establish mathematic models of statistical quantities, which are based on the Rytov method and the thin phase screen model, involved in the propagation process. And the analytic results are developed for an arbitrary thickness phase screen based on the Kolmogorov power spectrum. The comparison between the arbitrary thickness phase screen and the thin phase screen shows that it is more suitable for our results to describe the generalized case, especially the scintillation index.

  13. Discrete Event Simulation for Decision Modeling in Health Care: Lessons from Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Screening

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Edmund; Masconi, Katya L.; Sweeting, Michael J.; Thompson, Simon G.; Powell, Janet T.

    2018-01-01

    Markov models are often used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of new healthcare interventions but they are sometimes not flexible enough to allow accurate modeling or investigation of alternative scenarios and policies. A Markov model previously demonstrated that a one-off invitation to screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) for men aged 65 y in the UK and subsequent follow-up of identified AAAs was likely to be highly cost-effective at thresholds commonly adopted in the UK (£20,000 to £30,000 per quality adjusted life-year). However, new evidence has emerged and the decision problem has evolved to include exploration of the circumstances under which AAA screening may be cost-effective, which the Markov model is not easily able to address. A new model to handle this more complex decision problem was needed, and the case of AAA screening thus provides an illustration of the relative merits of Markov models and discrete event simulation (DES) models. An individual-level DES model was built using the R programming language to reflect possible events and pathways of individuals invited to screening v. those not invited. The model was validated against key events and cost-effectiveness, as observed in a large, randomized trial. Different screening protocol scenarios were investigated to demonstrate the flexibility of the DES. The case of AAA screening highlights the benefits of DES, particularly in the context of screening studies.

  14. Uncertainties in environmental radiological assessment models and their implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoffman, F.O.; Miller, C.W.

    1983-01-01

    Environmental radiological assessments rely heavily on the use of mathematical models. The predictions of these models are inherently uncertain because these models are inexact representations of real systems. The major sources of this uncertainty are related to biases in model formulation and parameter estimation. The best approach for estimating the actual extent of over- or underprediction is model validation, a procedure that requires testing over the range of the intended realm of model application. Other approaches discussed are the use of screening procedures, sensitivity and stochastic analyses, and model comparison. The magnitude of uncertainty in model predictions is a function of the questions asked of the model and the specific radionuclides and exposure pathways of dominant importance. Estimates are made of the relative magnitude of uncertainty for situations requiring predictions of individual and collective risks for both chronic and acute releases of radionuclides. It is concluded that models developed as research tools should be distinguished from models developed for assessment applications. Furthermore, increased model complexity does not necessarily guarantee increased accuracy. To improve the realism of assessment modeling, stochastic procedures are recommended that translate uncertain parameter estimates into a distribution of predicted values. These procedures also permit the importance of model parameters to be ranked according to their relative contribution to the overall predicted uncertainty. Although confidence in model predictions can be improved through site-specific parameter estimation and increased model validation, risk factors and internal dosimetry models will probably remain important contributors to the amount of uncertainty that is irreducible

  15. Disease modeling and phenotypic drug screening for diabetic cardiomyopathy using human induced pluripotent stem cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drawnel, Faye M; Boccardo, Stefano; Prummer, Michael; Delobel, Frédéric; Graff, Alexandra; Weber, Michael; Gérard, Régine; Badi, Laura; Kam-Thong, Tony; Bu, Lei; Jiang, Xin; Hoflack, Jean-Christophe; Kiialainen, Anna; Jeworutzki, Elena; Aoyama, Natsuyo; Carlson, Coby; Burcin, Mark; Gromo, Gianni; Boehringer, Markus; Stahlberg, Henning; Hall, Benjamin J; Magnone, Maria Chiara; Kolaja, Kyle; Chien, Kenneth R; Bailly, Jacques; Iacone, Roberto

    2014-11-06

    Diabetic cardiomyopathy is a complication of type 2 diabetes, with known contributions of lifestyle and genetics. We develop environmentally and genetically driven in vitro models of the condition using human-induced-pluripotent-stem-cell-derived cardiomyocytes. First, we mimic diabetic clinical chemistry to induce a phenotypic surrogate of diabetic cardiomyopathy, observing structural and functional disarray. Next, we consider genetic effects by deriving cardiomyocytes from two diabetic patients with variable disease progression. The cardiomyopathic phenotype is recapitulated in the patient-specific cells basally, with a severity dependent on their original clinical status. These models are incorporated into successive levels of a screening platform, identifying drugs that preserve cardiomyocyte phenotype in vitro during diabetic stress. In this work, we present a patient-specific induced pluripotent stem cell (iPSC) model of a complex metabolic condition, showing the power of this technique for discovery and testing of therapeutic strategies for a disease with ever-increasing clinical significance. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Disease Modeling and Phenotypic Drug Screening for Diabetic Cardiomyopathy using Human Induced Pluripotent Stem Cells

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faye M. Drawnel

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Diabetic cardiomyopathy is a complication of type 2 diabetes, with known contributions of lifestyle and genetics. We develop environmentally and genetically driven in vitro models of the condition using human-induced-pluripotent-stem-cell-derived cardiomyocytes. First, we mimic diabetic clinical chemistry to induce a phenotypic surrogate of diabetic cardiomyopathy, observing structural and functional disarray. Next, we consider genetic effects by deriving cardiomyocytes from two diabetic patients with variable disease progression. The cardiomyopathic phenotype is recapitulated in the patient-specific cells basally, with a severity dependent on their original clinical status. These models are incorporated into successive levels of a screening platform, identifying drugs that preserve cardiomyocyte phenotype in vitro during diabetic stress. In this work, we present a patient-specific induced pluripotent stem cell (iPSC model of a complex metabolic condition, showing the power of this technique for discovery and testing of therapeutic strategies for a disease with ever-increasing clinical significance.

  17. Proposing an Environmental Excellence Self-Assessment Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meulengracht Jensen, Peter; Johansen, John; Wæhrens, Brian Vejrum

    2013-01-01

    that the EEA model can be used in global organizations to differentiate environmental efforts depending on the maturity stage of the individual sites. Furthermore, the model can be used to support the decision-making process regarding when organizations should embark on more complex environmental efforts......This paper presents an Environmental Excellence Self-Assessment (EEA) model based on the structure of the European Foundation of Quality Management Business Excellence Framework. Four theoretical scenarios for deploying the model are presented as well as managerial implications, suggesting...

  18. CHAM: a fast algorithm of modelling non-linear matter power spectrum in the sCreened HAlo Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Bin; Liu, Xue-Wen; Cai, Rong-Gen

    2018-05-01

    We present a fast numerical screened halo model algorithm (CHAM, which stands for the sCreened HAlo Model) for modelling non-linear power spectrum for the alternative models to Λ cold dark matter. This method has three obvious advantages. First of all, it is not being restricted to a specific dark energy/modified gravity model. In principle, all of the screened scalar-tensor theories can be applied. Secondly, the least assumptions are made in the calculation. Hence, the physical picture is very easily understandable. Thirdly, it is very predictable and does not rely on the calibration from N-body simulation. As an example, we show the case of the Hu-Sawicki f(R) gravity. In this case, the typical CPU time with the current parallel PYTHON script (eight threads) is roughly within 10 min. The resulting spectra are in a good agreement with N-body data within a few percentage accuracy up to k ˜ 1 h Mpc-1.

  19. Screen-printed electrodes for environmental monitoring of heavy metal ions: a review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barton, John; González García, María Begoña; Hernández Santos, David; Fanjul-Bolado, Pablo; Ribotti, Alberto; Magni, Paolo; McCaul, Margaret; Diamond, Dermot

    2016-01-01

    Heavy metals such as lead, mercury, cadmium, zinc and copper are among the most important pollutants because of their non-biodegradability and toxicity above certain thresholds. Here, we review methods for sensing heavy metal ions (HMI) in water samples using screen-printed electrodes (SPEs) as transducers. The review (with 107 refs.) starts with an introduction into the topic, and this is followed by sections on (a) mercury-coated SPEs, (b) bismuth-coated SPEs, (c) gold-coated SPEs (d) chemically modified and non-modified carbon SPEs, (e) enzyme inhibition-based SPEs, and (f) an overview of commercially available electrochemical portable heavy metal analyzers. The review reveals the significance of SPEs in terms of decentralized and of in situ analysis of heavy metal ions in environmental monitoring. (author)

  20. Sites Pre-Screened for Wind Energy

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The RE-Powering Screening Dataset spreadsheet contains detailed site information on over 80,000 contaminated lands, landfills, and mine sites with screening results...

  1. Sites Pre-Screened for Solar Energy

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The RE-Powering Screening Dataset spreadsheet contains detailed site information on over 80,000 contaminated lands, landfills, and mine sites with screening results...

  2. Towards policy relevant environmental modeling: contextual validity and pragmatic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miles, Scott B.

    2000-01-01

    "What makes for a good model?" In various forms, this question is a question that, undoubtedly, many people, businesses, and institutions ponder with regards to their particular domain of modeling. One particular domain that is wrestling with this question is the multidisciplinary field of environmental modeling. Examples of environmental models range from models of contaminated ground water flow to the economic impact of natural disasters, such as earthquakes. One of the distinguishing claims of the field is the relevancy of environmental modeling to policy and environment-related decision-making in general. A pervasive view by both scientists and decision-makers is that a "good" model is one that is an accurate predictor. Thus, determining whether a model is "accurate" or "correct" is done by comparing model output to empirical observations. The expected outcome of this process, usually referred to as "validation" or "ground truthing," is a stamp on the model in question of "valid" or "not valid" that serves to indicate whether or not the model will be reliable before it is put into service in a decision-making context. In this paper, I begin by elaborating on the prevailing view of model validation and why this view must change. Drawing from concepts coming out of the studies of science and technology, I go on to propose a contextual view of validity that can overcome the problems associated with "ground truthing" models as an indicator of model goodness. The problem of how we talk about and determine model validity has much to do about how we perceive the utility of environmental models. In the remainder of the paper, I argue that we should adopt ideas of pragmatism in judging what makes for a good model and, in turn, developing good models. From such a perspective of model goodness, good environmental models should facilitate communication, convey—not bury or "eliminate"—uncertainties, and, thus, afford the active building of consensus decisions, instead

  3. Effects of screening and partner notification on Chlamydia positivity in the United States: a modeling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kretzschmar, Mirjam; Satterwhite, Catherine; Leichliter, Jami; Berman, Stuart

    2012-05-01

    Model impact of increasing screening and partner notification (PN) on chlamydia positivity. We used a stochastic simulation model describing pair formation and dissolution in an age-structured heterosexual population. The model accounts for steady, casual, and concurrent partnerships and a highly sexually active core group. The model used existing sexual behavior data from the United States and was validated using chlamydia positivity data from Region X (Alaska, Idaho, Oregon, Washington). A screening program with a coverage rate of 20% was implemented among women aged 15 to 24 years. After 10 years, we increased screening coverage to 35%, 50%, and 65% and partner treatment rates from 20% to 40% and 55%. Finally, we included male screening (aged 15-24, screening coverage: 20% and 35%, partner treatment: 25% and 40%). We analyzed the effects on chlamydia positivity in women and the frequency of reinfection 6 months after treatment. The model described the decline in positivity observed from 1988 to 1997 in Region X, given screening coverage of 20% and a 25% partner treatment rate. Increasing screening coverage from 35% to 65% resulted in incremental decreases in positivity as did increasing the PN rate; a 23% reduction in positivity was achieved by either increasing screening by 3-fold or PN by 2-fold. Adding male screening to the program had less impact than increasing screening coverage or PN among women. Increased PN and treatment reduced reinfection rates considerably. Increasing efforts in PN may contribute at least as much to control of chlamydia infection as increasing screening coverage rates.

  4. Predictions of models for environmental radiological assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peres, Sueli da Silva; Lauria, Dejanira da Costa; Mahler, Claudio Fernando

    2011-01-01

    In the field of environmental impact assessment, models are used for estimating source term, environmental dispersion and transfer of radionuclides, exposure pathway, radiation dose and the risk for human beings Although it is recognized that the specific information of local data are important to improve the quality of the dose assessment results, in fact obtaining it can be very difficult and expensive. Sources of uncertainties are numerous, among which we can cite: the subjectivity of modelers, exposure scenarios and pathways, used codes and general parameters. The various models available utilize different mathematical approaches with different complexities that can result in different predictions. Thus, for the same inputs different models can produce very different outputs. This paper presents briefly the main advances in the field of environmental radiological assessment that aim to improve the reliability of the models used in the assessment of environmental radiological impact. The intercomparison exercise of model supplied incompatible results for 137 Cs and 60 Co, enhancing the need for developing reference methodologies for environmental radiological assessment that allow to confront dose estimations in a common comparison base. The results of the intercomparison exercise are present briefly. (author)

  5. Evaluation of Quantitative Environmental Stress Screening (ESS) Methods. Volume 1

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-11-01

    required information on screening strength from the curvefitting parameters. The underlying theory and approach taken are discussed in Appendix A. To...in field 1020 arm St.,Vas AJ Ptr 0.4i Currpnt. c- ugt ~ing DU?/SYS 2.7264 Wll/IY.3 at Factory Stress- NaxiLMw outgoing W?is’ys 0.288 DrW/5?S at Field...182 125 K.W.Fertig and V.X. Murthy, Models for Reliability Growth During Burn-in: Theory and Applicat’ons,Proceedings 1978 Annual Reliability and

  6. Modeling screening, prevention, and delaying of Alzheimer's disease: an early-stage decision analytic model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Siemers Eric R

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Alzheimer's Disease (AD affects a growing proportion of the population each year. Novel therapies on the horizon may slow the progress of AD symptoms and avoid cases altogether. Initiating treatment for the underlying pathology of AD would ideally be based on biomarker screening tools identifying pre-symptomatic individuals. Early-stage modeling provides estimates of potential outcomes and informs policy development. Methods A time-to-event (TTE simulation provided estimates of screening asymptomatic patients in the general population age ≥55 and treatment impact on the number of patients reaching AD. Patients were followed from AD screen until all-cause death. Baseline sensitivity and specificity were 0.87 and 0.78, with treatment on positive screen. Treatment slowed progression by 50%. Events were scheduled using literature-based age-dependent incidences of AD and death. Results The base case results indicated increased AD free years (AD-FYs through delays in onset and a reduction of 20 AD cases per 1000 screened individuals. Patients completely avoiding AD accounted for 61% of the incremental AD-FYs gained. Total years of treatment per 1000 screened patients was 2,611. The number-needed-to-screen was 51 and the number-needed-to-treat was 12 to avoid one case of AD. One-way sensitivity analysis indicated that duration of screening sensitivity and rescreen interval impact AD-FYs the most. A two-way sensitivity analysis found that for a test with an extended duration of sensitivity (15 years the number of AD cases avoided was 6,000-7,000 cases for a test with higher sensitivity and specificity (0.90,0.90. Conclusions This study yielded valuable parameter range estimates at an early stage in the study of screening for AD. Analysis identified duration of screening sensitivity as a key variable that may be unavailable from clinical trials.

  7. Modeling screening, prevention, and delaying of Alzheimer's disease: an early-stage decision analytic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furiak, Nicolas M; Klein, Robert W; Kahle-Wrobleski, Kristin; Siemers, Eric R; Sarpong, Eric; Klein, Timothy M

    2010-04-30

    Alzheimer's Disease (AD) affects a growing proportion of the population each year. Novel therapies on the horizon may slow the progress of AD symptoms and avoid cases altogether. Initiating treatment for the underlying pathology of AD would ideally be based on biomarker screening tools identifying pre-symptomatic individuals. Early-stage modeling provides estimates of potential outcomes and informs policy development. A time-to-event (TTE) simulation provided estimates of screening asymptomatic patients in the general population age > or =55 and treatment impact on the number of patients reaching AD. Patients were followed from AD screen until all-cause death. Baseline sensitivity and specificity were 0.87 and 0.78, with treatment on positive screen. Treatment slowed progression by 50%. Events were scheduled using literature-based age-dependent incidences of AD and death. The base case results indicated increased AD free years (AD-FYs) through delays in onset and a reduction of 20 AD cases per 1000 screened individuals. Patients completely avoiding AD accounted for 61% of the incremental AD-FYs gained. Total years of treatment per 1000 screened patients was 2,611. The number-needed-to-screen was 51 and the number-needed-to-treat was 12 to avoid one case of AD. One-way sensitivity analysis indicated that duration of screening sensitivity and rescreen interval impact AD-FYs the most. A two-way sensitivity analysis found that for a test with an extended duration of sensitivity (15 years) the number of AD cases avoided was 6,000-7,000 cases for a test with higher sensitivity and specificity (0.90,0.90). This study yielded valuable parameter range estimates at an early stage in the study of screening for AD. Analysis identified duration of screening sensitivity as a key variable that may be unavailable from clinical trials.

  8. Modeling Accessibility of Screening and Treatment Facilities for Older Adults using Transportation Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qiuyi; Northridge, Mary E; Jin, Zhu; Metcalf, Sara S

    2018-04-01

    Increased lifespans and population growth have resulted in an older U.S. society that must reckon with the complex oral health needs that arise as adults age. Understanding accessibility to screening and treatment facilities for older adults is necessary in order to provide them with preventive and restorative services. This study uses an agent-based model to examine the accessibility of screening and treatment facilities via transportation networks for older adults living in the neighborhoods of northern Manhattan, New York City. Older adults are simulated as socioeconomically distinct agents who move along a GIS-based transportation network using transportation modes that mediate their access to screening and treatment facilities. This simulation model includes four types of mobile agents as a simplifying assumption: walk, by car, by bus, or by van (i.e., a form of transportation assistance for older adults). These mobile agents follow particular routes: older adults who travel by car, bus, and van follow street roads, whereas pedestrians follow walkways. The model enables the user to focus on one neighborhood at a time for analysis. The spatial dimension of an older adult's accessibility to screening and treatment facilities is simulated through the travel costs (indicated by travel time or distance) incurred in the GIS-based model environment, where lower travel costs to screening and treatment facilities imply better access. This model provides a framework for representing health-seeking behavior that is contextualized by a transportation network in a GIS environment.

  9. A nutritional risk screening model for patients with liver cirrhosis established using discriminant analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ZHU Binghua

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available ObjectiveTo establish a nutritional risk screening model for patients with liver cirrhosis using discriminant analysis. MethodsThe clinical data of 273 patients with liver cirrhosis who were admitted to Shuguang Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine from August 2015 to March 2016 were collected. Body height, body weight, upper arm circumference, triceps skinfold thickness, subscapular skinfold thickness, and hand grip strength were measured and recorded, and then body mass index (BMI and upper arm muscle circumference were calculated. Laboratory markers including liver function parameters, renal function parameters, and vitamins were measured. The patients were asked to complete Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 and Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool (MUST, and a self-developed nutritional risk screening pathway was used for nutritional risk classification. Observation scales of the four diagnostic methods in traditional Chinese medicine were used to collect patients′ symptoms and signs. Continuous data were expressed as mean±SD (x±s; an analysis of variance was used for comparison between multiple groups, and the least significant difference t-test was used for further comparison between two groups. Discriminant analysis was used for model establishment, and cross validation was used for model verification. ResultsThe nutritional risk screening pathway for patients with liver cirrhosis was used for the screening of respondents, and there were 49 patients (17.95% in non-risk group, 49 (17.95% in possible-risk group, and 175 (64.10% in risk group. The distance criterion function was used to establish the nutritional risk screening model for patients with liver cirrhosis: D1=-11.885+0.310×BMI+0150×MAC+0.005×P-Alb-0.001×Vit B12+0.103×Vit D-0.89×ascites-0.404×weakness-0.560×hypochondriac pain+0035×dysphoria with feverish sensation (note: if a patient has ascites, weakness, hypochondriac pain

  10. Energy and externality environmental regional model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baldi, L.; Bianchi, A.; Peri, M.

    2000-01-01

    The use of environmental externalities in both territorial management and the direction of energy and environment, faces the difficulties arising from their calculation. The so-called MACBET regional model, which has been constructed for Lombardy, is a first brand new attempt to overcome them. MACBET is a calculation model to assess environmental and employment externalities connected to energy use [it

  11. Independent screening for single-index hazard rate models with ultrahigh dimensional features

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gorst-Rasmussen, Anders; Scheike, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    can be viewed as the natural survival equivalent of correlation screening. We state conditions under which the method admits the sure screening property within a class of single-index hazard rate models with ultrahigh dimensional features and describe the generally detrimental effect of censoring...

  12. Communication models in environmental health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guidotti, Tee L

    2013-01-01

    Communication models common in environmental health are not well represented in the literature on health communication. Risk communication is a systematic approach to conveying essential information about a specific environmental issue and a framework for thinking about community risk and the alternatives for dealing with it. Crisis communication is intended to provide essential information to people facing an emergency in order to mitigate its effects and to enable them to make appropriate decisions, and it is primarily used in emergency management. Corporate communication is intended to achieve a change in attitude or perception of an organization, and its role in environmental health is usually public relations or to rehabilitate a damaged reputation. Environmental health education is a more didactic approach to science education with respect to health and the environment. Social marketing uses conventional marketing methods to achieve a socially desirable purpose but is more heavily used in health promotion generally. Communication models and styles in environmental health are specialized to serve the needs of the field in communicating with the community. They are highly structured and executed in different ways but have in common a relative lack of emphasis on changing personal or lifestyle behavior compared with health promotion and public health in general and a tendency to emphasize content on specific environmental issues and decision frameworks for protecting oneself or the community through collective action.

  13. Screening models for releases of radionuclides to atmosphere, surface water, and ground -- Work sheets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-01-01

    Three levels of screening for the atmospheric transport pathways and two levels for surface water are presented. The ground has only one screening level. Level 1 is the simplest approach and incorporates a high degree of conservatism. The estimate of the effective dose for this level assumes a concentration based upon the radionuclide concentration at the point of emission to the environment, i.e., at the stack for atmospheric emissions, at the end of the effluent pipe for liquid effluent releases, and at a well because of the buried radioactive material. Levels 2 and 3 are presented for atmospheric releases, and Level 2 for surface water releases only and are more detailed and correspondingly less conservative. Level 2 screening accounts for dispersion in the atmosphere and in surface waters and combines all recognized pathways into the screening factor. For the atmospheric pathway, Level 3 screening includes more definitive pathways analysis. Should the user be found in compliance on the basis of Level 1 screening, no further calculations are required. If the user fails Level 1, the user proceeds to the next level and checks for compliance. This process is repeated until the user passes screening (is in compliance) or no further screening levels exist. If the user fails the final level, professional assistance should be obtained in environmental radiological assessment. Work sheets are designed to lead the user through screening in a step-by-step manner until compliance is demonstrated or it is determined that more sophisticated methods or expertise are needed. Flow diagrams are provided as a guide to identify key steps in the screening process

  14. Current levels of gonorrhoea screening in MSM in Belgium may have little effect on prevalence: a modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buyze, J; Vanden Berghe, W; Hens, N; Kenyon, C

    2018-02-01

    There is considerable uncertainty as to the effectiveness of Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) screening in men who have sex with men. It is important to ensure that screening has benefits that outweigh the risks of increased antibiotics resistance. We develop a mathematical model to estimate the effectiveness of screening on prevalence. Separable Temporal Exponential family Random Graph Models are used to model the sexual relationships network, both with main and casual partners. Next, the transmission of Gonorrhoea is simulated on this network. The models are implemented using the R package 'statnet', which we adapted among other things to incorporate infection status at the pharynx, urethra and rectum separately and to distinguish between anal sex, oral sex and rimming. The different screening programmes compared are no screening, 3.5% of the population screened, 32% screened and 50% screened. The model simulates day-by-day evolution for 10 years of a population of 10 000. If half of the population would be screened, the prevalence in the pharynx decreases from 11.9% to 10.2%. We conclude that the limited impact of screening on NG prevalence may not outweigh the increased risk of antibiotic resistance.

  15. Estimation of the applicability domain of kernel-based machine learning models for virtual screening

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fechner Nikolas

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The virtual screening of large compound databases is an important application of structural-activity relationship models. Due to the high structural diversity of these data sets, it is impossible for machine learning based QSAR models, which rely on a specific training set, to give reliable results for all compounds. Thus, it is important to consider the subset of the chemical space in which the model is applicable. The approaches to this problem that have been published so far mostly use vectorial descriptor representations to define this domain of applicability of the model. Unfortunately, these cannot be extended easily to structured kernel-based machine learning models. For this reason, we propose three approaches to estimate the domain of applicability of a kernel-based QSAR model. Results We evaluated three kernel-based applicability domain estimations using three different structured kernels on three virtual screening tasks. Each experiment consisted of the training of a kernel-based QSAR model using support vector regression and the ranking of a disjoint screening data set according to the predicted activity. For each prediction, the applicability of the model for the respective compound is quantitatively described using a score obtained by an applicability domain formulation. The suitability of the applicability domain estimation is evaluated by comparing the model performance on the subsets of the screening data sets obtained by different thresholds for the applicability scores. This comparison indicates that it is possible to separate the part of the chemspace, in which the model gives reliable predictions, from the part consisting of structures too dissimilar to the training set to apply the model successfully. A closer inspection reveals that the virtual screening performance of the model is considerably improved if half of the molecules, those with the lowest applicability scores, are omitted from the screening

  16. Estimation of the applicability domain of kernel-based machine learning models for virtual screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fechner, Nikolas; Jahn, Andreas; Hinselmann, Georg; Zell, Andreas

    2010-03-11

    The virtual screening of large compound databases is an important application of structural-activity relationship models. Due to the high structural diversity of these data sets, it is impossible for machine learning based QSAR models, which rely on a specific training set, to give reliable results for all compounds. Thus, it is important to consider the subset of the chemical space in which the model is applicable. The approaches to this problem that have been published so far mostly use vectorial descriptor representations to define this domain of applicability of the model. Unfortunately, these cannot be extended easily to structured kernel-based machine learning models. For this reason, we propose three approaches to estimate the domain of applicability of a kernel-based QSAR model. We evaluated three kernel-based applicability domain estimations using three different structured kernels on three virtual screening tasks. Each experiment consisted of the training of a kernel-based QSAR model using support vector regression and the ranking of a disjoint screening data set according to the predicted activity. For each prediction, the applicability of the model for the respective compound is quantitatively described using a score obtained by an applicability domain formulation. The suitability of the applicability domain estimation is evaluated by comparing the model performance on the subsets of the screening data sets obtained by different thresholds for the applicability scores. This comparison indicates that it is possible to separate the part of the chemspace, in which the model gives reliable predictions, from the part consisting of structures too dissimilar to the training set to apply the model successfully. A closer inspection reveals that the virtual screening performance of the model is considerably improved if half of the molecules, those with the lowest applicability scores, are omitted from the screening. The proposed applicability domain formulations

  17. Screening-level assays for potentially human-infectious environmental Legionella spp.

    Science.gov (United States)

    In spite of the fact that Legionella species can be isolated from nonclinical settings, there is no standard method to determine whether environmental legionellae may be infectious to humans. In this study, an in vivo murine model of pneumonia and three in vitro proliferation as...

  18. Modelling environmental change in Europe: towards a model inventory (SEIS/Forward)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaeger, Annekathrin; Henrichs, Thomas

    This technical report provides a non-exhaustive overview of modelling tools currently available to simulate future environmental change at a European scale. Modelling tools have become an important cornerstone of environmental assessments, and play an important role in providing the data......, many of which have been used by the European Environment Agency in its recent environmental assessments and reports, a limited number of which are described in more detail. This review identifies gaps in the availability, accessibility and applicability of current modelling tools, and stresses the need...

  19. Economic model of a birth cohort screening program for hepatitis C virus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGarry, Lisa J; Pawar, Vivek S; Panchmatia, Hemangi R; Rubin, Jaime L; Davis, Gary L; Younossi, Zobair M; Capretta, James C; O'Grady, Michael J; Weinstein, Milton C

    2012-05-01

    Recent research has identified high hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence among older U.S. residents who contracted HCV decades ago and may no longer be recognized as high risk. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of screening 100% of U.S. residents born 1946-1970 over 5 years (birth-cohort screening), compared with current risk-based screening, by projecting costs and outcomes of screening over the remaining lifetime of this birth cohort. A Markov model of the natural history of HCV was developed using data synthesized from surveillance data, published literature, expert opinion, and other secondary sources. We assumed eligible patients were treated with pegylated interferon plus ribavirin, with genotype 1 patients receiving a direct-acting antiviral in combination. The target population is U.S. residents born 1946-1970 with no previous HCV diagnosis. Among the estimated 102 million (1.6 million chronically HCV infected) eligible for screening, birth-cohort screening leads to 84,000 fewer cases of decompensated cirrhosis, 46,000 fewer cases of hepatocellular carcinoma, 10,000 fewer liver transplants, and 78,000 fewer HCV-related deaths. Birth-cohort screening leads to higher overall costs than risk-based screening ($80.4 billion versus $53.7 billion), but yields lower costs related to advanced liver disease ($31.2 billion versus $39.8 billion); birth-cohort screening produces an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $37,700 per quality-adjusted life year gained versus risk-based screening. Sensitivity analyses showed that reducing the time horizon during which health and economic consequences are evaluated increases the ICER; similarly, decreasing the treatment rates and efficacy increases the ICER. Model results were relatively insensitive to other inputs. Birth-cohort screening for HCV is likely to provide important health benefits by reducing lifetime cases of advanced liver disease and HCV-related deaths and is cost-effective at conventional willingness

  20. Modeling the cost-benefit of nerve conduction studies in pre-employment screening for carpal tunnel syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evanoff, Bradley; Kymes, Steve

    2010-06-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the costs associated with pre-employment nerve conduction testing as a screening tool for carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) in the workplace. We used a Markov decision analysis model to compare the costs associated with a strategy of screening all prospective employees for CTS and not hiring those with abnormal nerve conduction, versus a strategy of not screening for CTS. The variables included in our model included employee turnover rate, the incidence of CTS, the prevalence of median nerve conduction abnormalities, the relative risk of developing CTS conferred by abnormal nerve conduction screening, the costs of pre-employment screening, and the worker's compensation costs to the employer for each case of CTS. In our base case, total employer costs for CTS from the perspective of the employer (cost of screening plus costs for workers' compensation associated with CTS) were higher when screening was used. Median costs per employee position over five years were US$503 for the screening strategy versus US$200 for a no-screening strategy. A sensitivity analysis showed that a strategy of screening was cost-beneficial from the perspective of the employer only under a few circumstances. Using Monte Carlo simulation varying all parameters, we found a 30% probability that screening would be cost-beneficial. A strategy of pre-employment screening for CTS should be carefully evaluated for yield and social consequences before being implemented. Our model suggests such screening is not appropriate for most employers.

  1. Abnormal screening in the quantum disordered phases of nonlinear σ-models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wen, X.G.; Zee, A.

    1989-01-01

    We study some properties of the quantum disordered phase of nonlinear σ-models, focussing on the quantum numbers of the quasi-particles and possible experimental implications. We find that the quasi-particles in the quantum disordered phase may, in many cases, carry new quantum numbers which do not appear in any finite combination of the fundamental fields. We call this phenomenon abnormal screening. Abnormal screening is shown to appear in (1+1)-dimensional systems. Using a large N mean field approach to the quantum disordered state, we show that abnormal screening may also appear in (1+2)-dimensional nonlinear σ-models. In 1+2 dimensions abnormal screening is closely related to spin-charge separation, which was proposed to occur in the spin liquid state relevant in some theories of high T c superconductivity. We compare the mean field approach with bosonization and other exact results for (1+1)-dimensional systems and find exact agreement for the quantum numbers of the quasi-particles. This suggests that mean field analysis of high T c superconductivity may yield a qualitatively reliable picture. Our result also gives an alternative way of understanding some novel properties of the antiferromagnetic spin chain. We estimate the density and temperature at which deconfinement and abnormal screening occur. Finally, we suggest some experimental signatures for this phenomenon. (orig.)

  2. An actor-based model of social network influence on adolescent body size, screen time, and playing sports.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David A Shoham

    Full Text Available Recent studies suggest that obesity may be "contagious" between individuals in social networks. Social contagion (influence, however, may not be identifiable using traditional statistical approaches because they cannot distinguish contagion from homophily (the propensity for individuals to select friends who are similar to themselves or from shared environmental influences. In this paper, we apply the stochastic actor-based model (SABM framework developed by Snijders and colleagues to data on adolescent body mass index (BMI, screen time, and playing active sports. Our primary hypothesis was that social influences on adolescent body size and related behaviors are independent of friend selection. Employing the SABM, we simultaneously modeled network dynamics (friendship selection based on homophily and structural characteristics of the network and social influence. We focused on the 2 largest schools in the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health and held the school environment constant by examining the 2 school networks separately (N = 624 and 1151. Results show support in both schools for homophily on BMI, but also for social influence on BMI. There was no evidence of homophily on screen time in either school, while only one of the schools showed homophily on playing active sports. There was, however, evidence of social influence on screen time in one of the schools, and playing active sports in both schools. These results suggest that both homophily and social influence are important in understanding patterns of adolescent obesity. Intervention efforts should take into consideration peers' influence on one another, rather than treating "high risk" adolescents in isolation.

  3. Does brain slices from pentylenetetrazole-kindled mice provide a more predictive screening model for antiepileptic drugs?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Suzanne L.; Sterjev, Zoran; Werngreen, Marie

    2012-01-01

    The cortical wedge is a commonly applied model for in vitro screening of new antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) and has been extensively used in characterization of well-known AEDs. However, the predictive validity of this model as a screening model has been questioned as, e.g., carbamazepine has been...... screening model for AEDs. To this end, we compared the in vitro and in vivo pharmacological profile of several selected AEDs (phenobarbital, phenytoin, tiagabine, fosphenytoin, valproate, and carbamazepine) along with citalopram using the PTZ-kindled model and brain slices from naïve, saline...

  4. Sites Pre-Screened for Geothermal Energy Potential

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The RE-Powering Screening Dataset spreadsheet contains detailed site information on over 80,000 contaminated lands, landfills, and mine sites with screening results...

  5. Maternal Serologic Screening to Prevent Congenital Toxoplasmosis: A Decision-Analytic Economic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stillwaggon, Eileen; Carrier, Christopher S.; Sautter, Mari; McLeod, Rima

    2011-01-01

    Objective To determine a cost-minimizing option for congenital toxoplasmosis in the United States. Methodology/Principal Findings A decision-analytic and cost-minimization model was constructed to compare monthly maternal serological screening, prenatal treatment, and post-natal follow-up and treatment according to the current French (Paris) protocol, versus no systematic screening or perinatal treatment. Costs are based on published estimates of lifetime societal costs of developmental disabilities and current diagnostic and treatment costs. Probabilities are based on published results and clinical practice in the United States and France. One- and two-way sensitivity analyses are used to evaluate robustness of results. Universal monthly maternal screening for congenital toxoplasmosis with follow-up and treatment, following the French protocol, is found to be cost-saving, with savings of $620 per child screened. Results are robust to changes in test costs, value of statistical life, seroprevalence in women of childbearing age, fetal loss due to amniocentesis, and to bivariate analysis of test costs and incidence of primary T. gondii infection in pregnancy. Given the parameters in this model and a maternal screening test cost of $12, screening is cost-saving for rates of congenital infection above 1 per 10,000 live births. If universal testing generates economies of scale in diagnostic tools—lowering test costs to about $2 per test—universal screening is cost-saving at rates of congenital infection well below the lowest reported rates in the United States of 1 per 10,000 live births. Conclusion/Significance Universal screening according to the French protocol is cost saving for the US population within broad parameters for costs and probabilities. PMID:21980546

  6. Environmental scan of anal cancer screening practices: worldwide survey results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patel, Jigisha; Salit, Irving E; Berry, Michael J; Pokomandy, Alexandra de; Nathan, Mayura; Fishman, Fred; Palefsky, Joel; Tinmouth, Jill

    2014-01-01

    Anal squamous cell carcinoma is rare in the general population but certain populations, such as persons with HIV, are at increased risk. High-risk populations can be screened for anal cancer using strategies similar to those used for cervical cancer. However, little is known about the use of such screening practices across jurisdictions. Data were collected using an online survey. Health care professionals currently providing anal cancer screening services were invited to complete the survey via email and/or fax. Information was collected on populations screened, services and treatments offered, and personnel. Over 300 invitations were sent; 82 providers from 80 clinics around the world completed the survey. Fourteen clinics have each examined more than 1000 patients. Over a third of clinics do not restrict access to screening; in the rest, eligibility is most commonly based on HIV status and abnormal anal cytology results. Fifty-three percent of clinics require abnormal anal cytology prior to performing high-resolution anoscopy (HRA) in asymptomatic patients. Almost all clinics offer both anal cytology and HRA. Internal high-grade anal intraepithelial neoplasia (AIN) is most often treated with infrared coagulation (61%), whereas external high-grade AIN is most commonly treated with imiquimod (49%). Most procedures are performed by physicians, followed by nurse practitioners. Our study is the first description of global anal cancer screening practices. Our findings may be used to inform practice and health policy in jurisdictions considering anal cancer screening

  7. Modelling of hysteresis in thin superconducting screens for mixed-mu suspension systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asher, G.M.; Williams, J.T.; Walters, C.R.; Joyce, H.; Paul, R.J.A.

    1982-01-01

    Mixed-mu levitation is the principle whereby iron is levitated in a magnetic field and stabilized by the proximity of diamagnetic superconducting screens. In a dynamic environment, the screens are subject to changing magnetic fields thus causing hysteresis losses in the superconducting material. This paper is concerned with the modeling of such hysteresis. A finite difference approximation to the current and field distributions is employed, the current distribution being made consistent with critical current values by iteration. Square and disc shaped screen samples are studied and hysteresis curves computed. It is shown that the method represents a fair approximation to the hysteresis behavior of thin superconducting screens. 8 refs

  8. A System Dynamics Model of Serum Prostate-Specific Antigen Screening for Prostate Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palma, Anton; Lounsbury, David W; Schlecht, Nicolas F; Agalliu, Ilir

    2016-02-01

    Since 2012, US guidelines have recommended against prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening for prostate cancer. However, evidence of screening benefit from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening trial and the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer has been inconsistent, due partly to differences in noncompliance and contamination. Using system dynamics modeling, we replicated the PLCO trial and extrapolated follow-up to 20 years. We then simulated 3 scenarios correcting for contamination in the PLCO control arm using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) incidence and survival data collected prior to the PSA screening era (scenario 1), SEER data collected during the PLCO trial period (1993-2001) (scenario 2), and data from the European trial's control arm (1991-2005) (scenario 3). In all scenarios, noncompliance was corrected using incidence and survival rates for men with screen-detected cancer in the PLCO screening arm. Scenarios 1 and 3 showed a benefit of PSA screening, with relative risks of 0.62 (95% confidence interval: 0.53, 0.72) and 0.70 (95% confidence interval: 0.59, 0.83) for cancer-specific mortality after 20 years, respectively. In scenario 2, however, there was no benefit of screening. This simulation showed that after correcting for noncompliance and contamination, there is potential benefit of PSA screening in reducing prostate cancer mortality. It also demonstrates the utility of system dynamics modeling for synthesizing epidemiologic evidence to inform public policy. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  9. Selection of low-level radioactive waste disposal sites using screening models versus more complex methodologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uslu, I.; Fields, D.E.

    1993-01-01

    The task of choosing a waste-disposal site from a set of candidate sites requires an approach capable of objectively handling many environmental variables for each site. Several computer methodologies have been developed to assist in the process of choosing a site for the disposal of low-level radioactive waste; however, most of these models are costly to apply, in terms of computer resources and the time and effort required by professional modelers, geologists, and waste-disposal experts. The authors describe how the relatively simple DRASTIC methodology (a standardized system for evaluating groundwater pollution potential using hydrogeologic settings) may be used for open-quotes pre-screeningclose quotes of sites to determine which subset of candidate sites is worthy of more detailed screening. Results of site comparisons made with DRASTIC are compared with results obtained using PRESTO-II methodology, which is representative of the more complex release-transport-human exposure methodologies. 6 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

  10. Leisure time physical activity, screen time, social background, and environmental variables in adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mota, Jorge; Gomes, Helena; Almeida, Mariana; Ribeiro, José Carlos; Santos, Maria Paula

    2007-08-01

    This study analyzes the relationships between leisure time physical activity (LTPA), sedentary behaviors, socioeconomic status, and perceived environmental variables. The sample comprised 815 girls and 746 boys. In girls, non-LTPA participants reported significantly more screen time. Girls with safety concerns were more likely to be in the non-LTPA group (OR = 0.60) and those who agreed with the importance of aesthetics were more likely to be in the active-LTPA group (OR = 1.59). In girls, an increase of 1 hr of TV watching was a significant predictor of non-LTPA (OR = 0.38). LTPA for girls, but not for boys, seems to be influenced by certain modifiable factors of the built environment, as well as by time watching TV.

  11. Screening report : Municipality of Leamington : Leamington Pollution Control Centre stand-by emergency power class environmental assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2009-03-15

    The Leamington Pollution Control Centre (PCC) is located in Ontario and treats residential and commercial wastewater collected from the Municipality of Leamington. The Leamington PCC currently has one standby diesel generator with a rated capacity of 545 kW. This generator provides power to the plant's disinfection facilities to reduce the risk of back-up into the collection system during power failures. The Municipality of Leamington plans to provide treatment in addition to disinfection during power outages. In order to achieve this, additional standby power is required to run the primary clarifiers, the aeration system and the secondary clarifiers. This document presented a screening report for the new standby generator, whose installation is considered a Schedule B under the Municipal Class Environmental Assessment process. The report reviewed background information on the proposed project; Ontario's Environmental Assessment Act; and the Class Environmental Assessment Act. It outlined the problem statement; identification of solutions; existing conditions; impacts and mitigation during construction and operation; and public consultation procedures. 2 refs., 4 figs., 1 appendix.

  12. Predicting People's Environmental Behaviour: Theory of Planned Behaviour and Model of Responsible Environmental Behaviour

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Yu-Long

    2012-01-01

    Using different measures of self-reported and other-reported environmental behaviour (EB), two important theoretical models explaining EB--Hines, Hungerford and Tomera's model of responsible environmental behaviour (REB) and Ajzen's theory of planned behaviour (TPB)--were compared regarding the fit between model and data, predictive ability,…

  13. In vitro cardiotoxicity assessment of environmental chemicals using an organotypic human induced pluripotent stem cell-derived model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sirenko, Oksana, E-mail: oksana.sirenko@moldev.com [Molecular Devices, LLC, Sunnyvale, CA (United States); Grimm, Fabian A. [Department of Veterinary Integrative Biosciences, Texas A& M University, College Station, TX (United States); Ryan, Kristen R. [Division of the National Toxicology Program, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States); Iwata, Yasuhiro; Chiu, Weihsueh A. [Department of Veterinary Integrative Biosciences, Texas A& M University, College Station, TX (United States); Parham, Frederick [Division of the National Toxicology Program, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States); Wignall, Jessica A. [ICF, Fairfax, VA (United States); Anson, Blake [Cellular Dynamics International, Madison, WI (United States); Cromwell, Evan F. [Protein Fluidics, Inc., Burlingame, CA (United States); Behl, Mamta [Division of the National Toxicology Program, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States); Rusyn, Ivan [Department of Veterinary Integrative Biosciences, Texas A& M University, College Station, TX (United States); Tice, Raymond R. [Division of the National Toxicology Program, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States)

    2017-05-01

    An important target area for addressing data gaps through in vitro screening is the detection of potential cardiotoxicants. Despite the fact that current conservative estimates relate at least 23% of all cardiovascular disease cases to environmental exposures, the identities of the causative agents remain largely uncharacterized. Here, we evaluate the feasibility of a combinatorial in vitro/in silico screening approach for functional and mechanistic cardiotoxicity profiling of environmental hazards using a library of 69 representative environmental chemicals and drugs. Human induced pluripotent stem cell-derived cardiomyocytes were exposed in concentration-response for 30 min or 24 h and effects on cardiomyocyte beating and cellular and mitochondrial toxicity were assessed by kinetic measurements of intracellular Ca{sup 2+} flux and high-content imaging using the nuclear dye Hoechst 33342, the cell viability marker Calcein AM, and the mitochondrial depolarization probe JC-10. More than half of the tested chemicals exhibited effects on cardiomyocyte beating after 30 min of exposure. In contrast, after 24 h, effects on cell beating without concomitant cytotoxicity were observed in about one third of the compounds. Concentration-response data for in vitro bioactivity phenotypes visualized using the Toxicological Prioritization Index (ToxPi) showed chemical class-specific clustering of environmental chemicals, including pesticides, flame retardants, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. For environmental chemicals with human exposure predictions, the activity-to-exposure ratios between modeled blood concentrations and in vitro bioactivity were between one and five orders of magnitude. These findings not only demonstrate that some ubiquitous environmental pollutants might have the potential at high exposure levels to alter cardiomyocyte function, but also indicate similarities in the mechanism of these effects both within and among chemicals and classes. - Highlights:

  14. In vitro cardiotoxicity assessment of environmental chemicals using an organotypic human induced pluripotent stem cell-derived model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sirenko, Oksana; Grimm, Fabian A.; Ryan, Kristen R.; Iwata, Yasuhiro; Chiu, Weihsueh A.; Parham, Frederick; Wignall, Jessica A.; Anson, Blake; Cromwell, Evan F.; Behl, Mamta; Rusyn, Ivan; Tice, Raymond R.

    2017-01-01

    An important target area for addressing data gaps through in vitro screening is the detection of potential cardiotoxicants. Despite the fact that current conservative estimates relate at least 23% of all cardiovascular disease cases to environmental exposures, the identities of the causative agents remain largely uncharacterized. Here, we evaluate the feasibility of a combinatorial in vitro/in silico screening approach for functional and mechanistic cardiotoxicity profiling of environmental hazards using a library of 69 representative environmental chemicals and drugs. Human induced pluripotent stem cell-derived cardiomyocytes were exposed in concentration-response for 30 min or 24 h and effects on cardiomyocyte beating and cellular and mitochondrial toxicity were assessed by kinetic measurements of intracellular Ca 2+ flux and high-content imaging using the nuclear dye Hoechst 33342, the cell viability marker Calcein AM, and the mitochondrial depolarization probe JC-10. More than half of the tested chemicals exhibited effects on cardiomyocyte beating after 30 min of exposure. In contrast, after 24 h, effects on cell beating without concomitant cytotoxicity were observed in about one third of the compounds. Concentration-response data for in vitro bioactivity phenotypes visualized using the Toxicological Prioritization Index (ToxPi) showed chemical class-specific clustering of environmental chemicals, including pesticides, flame retardants, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. For environmental chemicals with human exposure predictions, the activity-to-exposure ratios between modeled blood concentrations and in vitro bioactivity were between one and five orders of magnitude. These findings not only demonstrate that some ubiquitous environmental pollutants might have the potential at high exposure levels to alter cardiomyocyte function, but also indicate similarities in the mechanism of these effects both within and among chemicals and classes. - Highlights:

  15. Withdrawing low risk women from cervical screening programmes: mathematical modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherlaw-Johnson, C; Gallivan, S; Jenkins, D

    1999-02-06

    To evaluate the impact of policies for removing women before the recommended age of 64 from screening programmes for cervical cancer in the United Kingdom. A mathematical model of the clinical course of precancerous lesions which accounts for the influence of infection with the human papillomavirus, the effects of screening on the progression of disease, and the accuracy of the testing procedures. Two policies are compared: one in which women are withdrawn from the programme if their current smear is negative and they have a recent history of regular, negative results and one in which women are withdrawn if their current smear test is negative and a simultaneous test is negative for exposure to high risk types of human papillomavirus. United Kingdom cervical screening programme. The incidence of invasive cervical cancer and the use of resources. Early withdrawal of selected women from the programme is predicted to give rise to resource savings of up to 25% for smear tests and 18% for colposcopies when withdrawal occurs from age 50, the youngest age considered in the study. An increase in the incidence of invasive cervical cancer, by up to 2 cases/100 000 women each year is predicted. Testing for human papillomavirus infection to determine which women should be withdrawn from the programme makes little difference to outcome. This model systematically analyses the consequences of screening options using available data and the clinical course of precancerous lesions. If further audit studies confirm the model's forecasts, a policy of early withdrawal might be considered. This would be likely to release substantial resources which could be channelled into other aspects of health care or may be more effectively used within the cervical screening programme to counteract the possible increase in cancer incidence that early withdrawal might bring.

  16. Environmental Screening of Electrode Materials for a Rechargeable Aluminum Battery with an AlCl3/EMIMCl Electrolyte

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linda Ager-Wick Ellingsen

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Recently, rechargeable aluminum batteries have received much attention due to their low cost, easy operation, and high safety. As the research into rechargeable aluminum batteries with a room-temperature ionic liquid electrolyte is relatively new, research efforts have focused on finding suitable electrode materials. An understanding of the environmental aspects of electrode materials is essential to make informed and conscious decisions in aluminum battery development. The purpose of this study was to evaluate and compare the relative environmental performance of electrode material candidates for rechargeable aluminum batteries with an AlCl3/EMIMCl (1-ethyl-3-methylimidazolium chloride room-temperature ionic liquid electrolyte. To this end, we used a lifecycle environmental screening framework to evaluate 12 candidate electrode materials. We found that all of the studied materials are associated with one or more drawbacks and therefore do not represent a “silver bullet” for the aluminum battery. Even so, some materials appeared more promising than others did. We also found that aluminum battery technology is likely to face some of the same environmental challenges as Li-ion technology but also offers an opportunity to avoid others. The insights provided here can aid aluminum battery development in an environmentally sustainable direction.

  17. Modelling environmental dynamics. Advances in goematic solutions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paegelow, Martin [Toulouse-2 Univ., 31 (France). GEODE UMR 5602 CNRS; Camacho Olmedo, Maria Teresa (eds.) [Granada Univ (Spain). Dpto. de Analisis Geografico Regional y Geografia Fisica

    2008-07-01

    Modelling environmental dynamics is critical to understanding and predicting the evolution of the environment in response to the large number of influences including urbanisation, climate change and deforestation. Simulation and modelling provide support for decision making in environmental management. The first chapter introduces terminology and provides an overview of methodological modelling approaches which may be applied to environmental and complex dynamics. Based on this introduction this book illustrates various models applied to a large variety of themes: deforestation in tropical regions, fire risk, natural reforestation in European mountains, agriculture, biodiversity, urbanism, climate change and land management for decision support, etc. These case studies, provided by a large international spectrum of researchers and presented in a uniform structure, focus particularly on methods and model validation so that this book is not only aimed at researchers and graduates but also at professionals. (orig.)

  18. A software engineering perspective on environmental modeling framework design: The object modeling system

    Science.gov (United States)

    The environmental modeling community has historically been concerned with the proliferation of models and the effort associated with collective model development tasks (e.g., code generation, data provisioning and transformation, etc.). Environmental modeling frameworks (EMFs) have been developed to...

  19. Predicting soil, water and air concentrations of environmental contaminants locally and regionally; multimedia transport and transformation models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McKone, T.E.; Daniels, J.I.

    1991-01-01

    Environmental scientists recognize that the environment functions as a complex, interconnected system. A realistic risk-management strategy for many contaminants requires a comprehensive and integrated assessment of local and regional transport and transformation processes. In response to this need, we have developed multimedia models that simulate the movement and transformation of chemicals as they spread through air, water, biota, soils, sediments, surface water and ground water. Each component of the environment is treated as a homogeneous subsystem that can exchange water, nutrients, and chemical contaminants with other adjacent compartments. In this paper, we illustrate the use of multimedia models and measurements as tools for screening the potential risks of contaminants released to air and deposited onto soil and plants. The contaminant list includes the volatile organic compounds (VOCs) tetrachloroethylene (PCE) and trichloroethylene (TCE), the semi-volatile organic compound benzo(a)pyrene, and the radionuclides tritium and uranium-238. We examine how chemical properties effect both the ultimate route and quantity of human and ecosystem contact and identify sensitivities and uncertainties in the model results. We consider the advantages of multimedia models relative to environmental monitoring data. (au)

  20. Screening Level Risk Assessment for the New Waste Calcining Facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. L. Abbott; K. N. Keck; R. E. Schindler; R. L. VanHorn; N. L. Hampton; M. B. Heiser

    1999-05-01

    This screening level risk assessment evaluates potential adverse human health and ecological impacts resulting from continued operations of the calciner at the New Waste Calcining Facility (NWCF) at the Idaho Nuclear Technology and Engineering Center (INTEC), Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). The assessment was conducted in accordance with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report, Guidance for Performing Screening Level Risk Analyses at Combustion Facilities Burning Hazardous Waste. This screening guidance is intended to give a conservative estimate of the potential risks to determine whether a more refined assessment is warranted. The NWCF uses a fluidized-bed combustor to solidify (calcine) liquid radioactive mixed waste from the INTEC Tank Farm facility. Calciner off volatilized metal species, trace organic compounds, and low-levels of radionuclides. Conservative stack emission rates were calculated based on maximum waste solution feed samples, conservative assumptions for off gas partitioning of metals and organics, stack gas sampling for mercury, and conservative measurements of contaminant removal (decontamination factors) in the off gas treatment system. Stack emissions were modeled using the ISC3 air dispersion model to predict maximum particulate and vapor air concentrations and ground deposition rates. Results demonstrate that NWCF emissions calculated from best-available process knowledge would result in maximum onsite and offsite health and ecological impacts that are less then EPA-established criteria for operation of a combustion facility.

  1. Tailoring Breast Cancer Screening Intervals by Breast Density and Risk for Women Aged 50 Years or Older: Collaborative Modeling of Screening Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trentham-Dietz, Amy; Kerlikowske, Karla; Stout, Natasha K; Miglioretti, Diana L; Schechter, Clyde B; Ergun, Mehmet Ali; van den Broek, Jeroen J; Alagoz, Oguzhan; Sprague, Brian L; van Ravesteyn, Nicolien T; Near, Aimee M; Gangnon, Ronald E; Hampton, John M; Chandler, Young; de Koning, Harry J; Mandelblatt, Jeanne S; Tosteson, Anna N A

    2016-11-15

    Biennial screening is generally recommended for average-risk women aged 50 to 74 years, but tailored screening may provide greater benefits. To estimate outcomes for various screening intervals after age 50 years based on breast density and risk for breast cancer. Collaborative simulation modeling using national incidence, breast density, and screening performance data. United States. Women aged 50 years or older with various combinations of breast density and relative risk (RR) of 1.0, 1.3, 2.0, or 4.0. Annual, biennial, or triennial digital mammography screening from ages 50 to 74 years (vs. no screening) and ages 65 to 74 years (vs. biennial digital mammography from ages 50 to 64 years). Lifetime breast cancer deaths, life expectancy and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), false-positive mammograms, benign biopsy results, overdiagnosis, cost-effectiveness, and ratio of false-positive results to breast cancer deaths averted. Screening benefits and overdiagnosis increase with breast density and RR. False-positive mammograms and benign results on biopsy decrease with increasing risk. Among women with fatty breasts or scattered fibroglandular density and an RR of 1.0 or 1.3, breast cancer deaths averted were similar for triennial versus biennial screening for both age groups (50 to 74 years, median of 3.4 to 5.1 vs. 4.1 to 6.5 deaths averted; 65 to 74 years, median of 1.5 to 2.1 vs. 1.8 to 2.6 deaths averted). Breast cancer deaths averted increased with annual versus biennial screening for women aged 50 to 74 years at all levels of breast density and an RR of 4.0, and those aged 65 to 74 years with heterogeneously or extremely dense breasts and an RR of 4.0. However, harms were almost 2-fold higher. Triennial screening for the average-risk subgroup and annual screening for the highest-risk subgroup cost less than $100 000 per QALY gained. Models did not consider women younger than 50 years, those with an RR less than 1, or other imaging methods. Average-risk women

  2. Overview of the Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Whelan, G.; Buck, J.W.; Strenge, D.L.; Droppo, J.G.; Hoopes, B.L.; Aiken, R.J.

    1992-01-01

    The Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS) is a physics-based risk computation code that integrates source-term, transport, and exposure models. Developed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory for screening and ranking of environmental problems, MEPAS is designed for site-specific assessments using readily available information to estimate potential health impacts. Risk values are computed for chemical and radioactive carcinogens; while hazard quotients, based on reference doses, are computed for noncarcinogens. This system has wide applicability to a range of environmental problems using air, groundwater, surface-water, overland, and exposure models. Whenever available and appropriate, EPA guidance and models were used to facilitate compatibility and acceptance. Although based on relatively standard transport and exposure computation approaches, the unique feature of MEPAS is that these approaches are integrated into a single system. The use of a single system provides a consistent basis for evaluating health impacts for a large number of problems and sites. Implemented on a desktop computer, a user-friendly shell allows the user to define the problem, input the required data, and execute the appropriate models. The MEPAS guidance documents include sources of information. MEPAS can be used for both screening and assessment applications for the remedial investigation/risk assessment/feasibility study and environment restoration processes

  3. Toxicological benchmarks for screening contaminants of potential concern for effects on sediment-associated biota: 1994 Revision. Environmental Restoration Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hull, R.N.; Suter, G.W. II

    1994-06-01

    Because a hazardous waste site may contain hundreds of chemicals, it is important to screen contaminants of potential concern for the ecological risk assessment. Often this screening is done as part of a Screening Assessment, the purpose of which is to evaluate the available data, identify data gaps, and screen contaminants of potential concern. Screening may be accomplished by using a set of toxicological benchmarks. These benchmarks are helpful in determining whether contaminants warrant further assessment or are at a level that requires no further attention. If a chemical concentration or the reported detection limit exceeds a proposed lower benchmark, more analysis is needed to determine the hazards posed by that chemical. If, however, the chemical concentration falls below the lower benchmark value, the chemical may be eliminated from further study. This report briefly describes three categories of approaches to the development of sediment quality benchmarks. These approaches are based on analytical chemistry, toxicity test and field survey data. A fourth integrative approach incorporates all three types of data. The equilibrium partitioning approach is recommended for screening nonpolar organic contaminants of concern in sediments. For inorganics, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has developed benchmarks that may be used for screening. There are supplemental benchmarks from the province of Ontario, the state of Wisconsin, and US Environmental Protection Agency Region V. Pore water analysis is recommended for polar organic compounds; comparisons are then made against water quality benchmarks. This report is an update of a prior report. It contains revised ER-L and ER-M values, the five EPA proposed sediment quality criteria, and benchmarks calculated for several nonionic organic chemicals using equilibrium partitioning

  4. Cellular and molecular modifier pathways in tauopathies: the big picture from screening invertebrate models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannan, Shabab B; Dräger, Nina M; Rasse, Tobias M; Voigt, Aaron; Jahn, Thomas R

    2016-04-01

    Abnormal tau accumulations were observed and documented in post-mortem brains of patients affected by Alzheimer's disease (AD) long before the identification of mutations in the Microtubule-associated protein tau (MAPT) gene, encoding the tau protein, in a different neurodegenerative disease called Frontotemporal dementia and Parkinsonism linked to chromosome 17 (FTDP-17). The discovery of mutations in the MAPT gene associated with FTDP-17 highlighted that dysfunctions in tau alone are sufficient to cause neurodegeneration. Invertebrate models have been diligently utilized in investigating tauopathies, contributing to the understanding of cellular and molecular pathways involved in disease etiology. An important discovery came with the demonstration that over-expression of human tau in Drosophila leads to premature mortality and neuronal dysfunction including neurodegeneration, recapitulating some key neuropathological features of the human disease. The simplicity of handling invertebrate models combined with the availability of a diverse range of experimental resources make these models, in particular Drosophila a powerful invertebrate screening tool. Consequently, several large-scale screens have been performed using Drosophila, to identify modifiers of tau toxicity. The screens have revealed not only common cellular and molecular pathways, but in some instances the same modifier has been independently identified in two or more screens suggesting a possible role for these modifiers in regulating tau toxicity. The purpose of this review is to discuss the genetic modifier screens on tauopathies performed in Drosophila and C. elegans models, and to highlight the common cellular and molecular pathways that have emerged from these studies. Here, we summarize results of tau toxicity screens providing mechanistic insights into pathological alterations in tauopathies. Key pathways or modifiers that have been identified are associated with a broad range of processes

  5. Stem cells: a model for screening, discovery and development of drugs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kitambi SS

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Satish Srinivas Kitambi1, Gayathri Chandrasekar21Department of Medical Biochemistry and Biophysics; 2Department of Biosciences, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, SwedenAbstract: The identification of normal and cancerous stem cells and the recent advances made in isolation and culture of stem cells have rapidly gained attention in the field of drug discovery and regenerative medicine. The prospect of performing screens aimed at proliferation, directed differentiation, and toxicity and efficacy studies using stem cells offers a reliable platform for the drug discovery process. Advances made in the generation of induced pluripotent stem cells from normal or diseased tissue serves as a platform to perform drug screens aimed at developing cell-based therapies against conditions like Parkinson's disease and diabetes. This review discusses the application of stem cells and cancer stem cells in drug screening and their role in complementing, reducing, and replacing animal testing. In addition to this, target identification and major advances in the field of personalized medicine using induced pluripotent cells are also discussed.Keywords: therapeutics, stem cells, cancer stem cells, screening models, drug development, high throughput screening

  6. An integrated model of environmental factors in adult asthma lung function and disease severity: a cross-sectional study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katz Patricia P

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Diverse environmental exposures, studied separately, have been linked to health outcomes in adult asthma, but integrated multi-factorial effects have not been modeled. We sought to evaluate the contribution of combined social and physical environmental exposures to adult asthma lung function and disease severity. Methods Data on 176 subjects with asthma and/or rhinitis were collected via telephone interviews for sociodemographic factors and asthma severity (scored on a 0-28 point range. Dust, indoor air quality, antigen-specific IgE antibodies, and lung function (percent predicted FEV1 were assessed through home visits. Neighborhood socioeconomic status, proximity to traffic, land use, and ambient air quality data were linked to the individual-level data via residential geocoding. Multiple linear regression separately tested the explanatory power of five groups of environmental factors for the outcomes, percent predicted FEV1 and asthma severity. Final models retained all variables statistically associated (p Results Mean FEV1 was 85.0 ± 18.6%; mean asthma severity score was 6.9 ± 5.6. Of 29 variables screened, 13 were retained in the final model of FEV1 (R2 = 0.30; p 2 = 0.16; p 1 as an independent variable to the severity model further increased its explanatory power (R2 = 0.25. Conclusions Multivariate models covering a range of individual and environmental factors explained nearly a third of FEV1 variability and, taking into account lung function, one quarter of variability in asthma severity. These data support an integrated approach to modeling adult asthma outcomes, including both the physical and the social environment.

  7. Choosing algorithms for TB screening: a modelling study to compare yield, predictive value and diagnostic burden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van't Hoog, Anna H; Onozaki, Ikushi; Lonnroth, Knut

    2014-10-19

    To inform the choice of an appropriate screening and diagnostic algorithm for tuberculosis (TB) screening initiatives in different epidemiological settings, we compare algorithms composed of currently available methods. Of twelve algorithms composed of screening for symptoms (prolonged cough or any TB symptom) and/or chest radiography abnormalities, and either sputum-smear microscopy (SSM) or Xpert MTB/RIF (XP) as confirmatory test we model algorithm outcomes and summarize the yield, number needed to screen (NNS) and positive predictive value (PPV) for different levels of TB prevalence. Screening for prolonged cough has low yield, 22% if confirmatory testing is by SSM and 32% if XP, and a high NNS, exceeding 1000 if TB prevalence is ≤0.5%. Due to low specificity the PPV of screening for any TB symptom followed by SSM is less than 50%, even if TB prevalence is 2%. CXR screening for TB abnormalities followed by XP has the highest case detection (87%) and lowest NNS, but is resource intensive. CXR as a second screen for symptom screen positives improves efficiency. The ideal algorithm does not exist. The choice will be setting specific, for which this study provides guidance. Generally an algorithm composed of CXR screening followed by confirmatory testing with XP can achieve the lowest NNS and highest PPV, and is the least amenable to setting-specific variation. However resource requirements for tests and equipment may be prohibitive in some settings and a reason to opt for symptom screening and SSM. To better inform disease control programs we need empirical data to confirm the modeled yield, cost-effectiveness studies, transmission models and a better screening test.

  8. Mathematical Models of the Sinusoidal Screen Family

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tajana Koren

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we will define a family of sinusoidal screening elements and explore the possibilities of their application in graphic arts, securities printing and design solutions in photography and typography editing. For this purpose mathematical expressions of sinusoidal families were converted into a Postscript language. The introduction of a random variable results in a countless number of various mutations which cannot be repeated without knowing the programming code itself. The use of the family of screens in protection of securities is thus of great importance. Other possible application of modulated sinusoidal screens is related to the large format color printing. This paper will test the application of sinusoidal screens in vector graphics, pixel graphics and typography. The development of parameters in the sinusoidal screen element algorithms gives new forms defined within screening cells with strict requirements of coverage implementation. Individual solutions include stochastic algorithms, as well as the autonomy of screening forms in regard to multicolor printing channels.

  9. A Knowledge-Based Representation Scheme for Environmental Science Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, Richard M.; Dungan, Jennifer L.; Lum, Henry, Jr. (Technical Monitor)

    1994-01-01

    One of the primary methods available for studying environmental phenomena is the construction and analysis of computational models. We have been studying how artificial intelligence techniques can be applied to assist in the development and use of environmental science models within the context of NASA-sponsored activities. We have identified several high-utility areas as potential targets for research and development: model development; data visualization, analysis, and interpretation; model publishing and reuse, training and education; and framing, posing, and answering questions. Central to progress on any of the above areas is a representation for environmental models that contains a great deal more information than is present in a traditional software implementation. In particular, a traditional software implementation is devoid of any semantic information that connects the code with the environmental context that forms the background for the modeling activity. Before we can build AI systems to assist in model development and usage, we must develop a representation for environmental models that adequately describes a model's semantics and explicitly represents the relationship between the code and the modeling task at hand. We have developed one such representation in conjunction with our work on the SIGMA (Scientists' Intelligent Graphical Modeling Assistant) environment. The key feature of the representation is that it provides a semantic grounding for the symbols in a set of modeling equations by linking those symbols to an explicit representation of the underlying environmental scenario.

  10. The screening and scoping of Environmental Impact Assessment and Strategic Environmental Assessment of Carbon Capture and Storage in the Netherlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koornneef, Joris; Faaij, Andre; Turkenburg, Wim

    2008-01-01

    The Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) are procedural tools which have as goal to assess and evaluate possible environmental effects of, respectively, a proposed project or policy plan. The goal of this article is to explore possible bottlenecks in applying both the EIA and SEA procedures on Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) activities in the Netherlands, as experience is currently minimal or lacking. In this study we focus mainly on the institutional and procedural aspects of the screening and scoping phases of both procedures. This is achieved by reviewing EIA and SEA procedures for analogue projects for the three distinctive process steps of a CCS project, namely the power plant with capture, the transport and finally the underground storage of the CO 2 . Additionally, EIA and SEA or similar procedures on CCS in other countries are reviewed and the legal framework for the Dutch EIA and SEA is studied. This article shows a concise overview of the EIA and SEA procedure in the Netherlands and the relation between both procedures. Based on our findings we have constructed a conceptual taxonomy for the scope of both procedures for CCS in the Netherlands. This taxonomy conceptualizes the possible integration of assessing the environmental impacts for tiered levels of decision making. This integration might be needed for first CCS projects as decisions on the strategic (spatial planning) level are currently absent for CCS in the Netherlands. Perpendicular to such integration is the integration of linked activities in the CCS chain and their alternatives, into one procedure. We argue that it would be beneficial to combine the separate EIA procedures for CCS activities into one procedure or at least provide close linkage between them. This issue should be carefully considered by regulators, competent authorities and project initiators in an early stage to avoid delaying legal procedures in the future. For the same reason

  11. Printed and tablet e-paper newspaper from an environmental perspective - A screening life cycle assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moberg, Asa; Johansson, Martin; Finnveden, Goeran; Jonsson, Alex

    2010-01-01

    Viable alternatives to conventional newspapers, such as electronic papers, e-papers or e-readers, are intended to have many of the qualities of paper, such as reading using reflective light, high resolution, 180 deg. viewing angle. It has been suggested that the environmental impact of e-paper can be lower than for printed and internet-based newspapers. However, in order to find the facts of the matter, a thorough life cycle perspective covering raw material acquisition, production, use and disposal should preferably be used to study the environmental performance of the different products. A screening life cycle assessment was performed to describe the potential environmental impacts of two product systems; printed on paper and tablet e-paper newspapers. Results show that the most significant phase of the life cycle for both product systems was the production of substrate or platform. Accordingly, key aspects that may affect the resulting environmental performance of newspaper product systems were for the printed newspaper number of readers per copy and number of pages per issue and for the tablet e-paper newspaper lifetime and multi-use of the device. The printed newspaper in general had a higher energy use, higher emissions of gases contributing to climate change and several other impact categories than the tablet e-paper newspaper. It was concluded that tablet e-paper has the potential to decrease the environmental impact of newspaper consumption. However, further studies regarding the environmental impact of production and waste management of electronic devices and internet use, as well as more comprehensive assessment of toxicological impacts are needed. As the data on the electronic devices becomes more comprehensive this may prove to be a major limitation of electronic newspaper systems. Developers are suggested to strive towards minimisation of toxic and rare substances in production.

  12. Sites Pre-Screened for Biomass and Biofuel Potential

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The RE-Powering Screening Dataset spreadsheet contains detailed site information on over 80,000 contaminated lands, landfills, and mine sites with screening results...

  13. Knowledge-Based Environmental Context Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pukite, P. R.; Challou, D. J.

    2017-12-01

    As we move from the oil-age to an energy infrastructure based on renewables, the need arises for new educational tools to support the analysis of geophysical phenomena and their behavior and properties. Our objective is to present models of these phenomena to make them amenable for incorporation into more comprehensive analysis contexts. Starting at the level of a college-level computer science course, the intent is to keep the models tractable and therefore practical for student use. Based on research performed via an open-source investigation managed by DARPA and funded by the Department of Interior [1], we have adapted a variety of physics-based environmental models for a computer-science curriculum. The original research described a semantic web architecture based on patterns and logical archetypal building-blocks (see figure) well suited for a comprehensive environmental modeling framework. The patterns span a range of features that cover specific land, atmospheric and aquatic domains intended for engineering modeling within a virtual environment. The modeling engine contained within the server relied on knowledge-based inferencing capable of supporting formal terminology (through NASA JPL's Semantic Web for Earth and Environmental Technology (SWEET) ontology and a domain-specific language) and levels of abstraction via integrated reasoning modules. One of the key goals of the research was to simplify models that were ordinarily computationally intensive to keep them lightweight enough for interactive or virtual environment contexts. The breadth of the elements incorporated is well-suited for learning as the trend toward ontologies and applying semantic information is vital for advancing an open knowledge infrastructure. As examples of modeling, we have covered such geophysics topics as fossil-fuel depletion, wind statistics, tidal analysis, and terrain modeling, among others. Techniques from the world of computer science will be necessary to promote efficient

  14. COLA with scale-dependent growth: applications to screened modified gravity models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Winther, Hans A.; Koyama, Kazuya; Wright, Bill S. [Institute of Cosmology and Gravitation, University of Portsmouth, Dennis Sciama Building, Burnaby Road, Portsmouth, PO1 3FX (United Kingdom); Manera, Marc [Centre for Theoretical Cosmology, Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge, Wilberforce Road, Cambridge CB3 0WA (United Kingdom); Zhao, Gong-Bo, E-mail: hans.a.winther@gmail.com, E-mail: kazuya.koyama@port.ac.uk, E-mail: manera.work@gmail.com, E-mail: bill.wright@port.ac.uk, E-mail: gong-bo.Zhao@port.ac.uk [National Astronomy Observatories, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing, 100012 (China)

    2017-08-01

    We present a general parallelized and easy-to-use code to perform numerical simulations of structure formation using the COLA (COmoving Lagrangian Acceleration) method for cosmological models that exhibit scale-dependent growth at the level of first and second order Lagrangian perturbation theory. For modified gravity theories we also include screening using a fast approximate method that covers all the main examples of screening mechanisms in the literature. We test the code by comparing it to full simulations of two popular modified gravity models, namely f ( R ) gravity and nDGP, and find good agreement in the modified gravity boost-factors relative to ΛCDM even when using a fairly small number of COLA time steps.

  15. Correlates of screen time among 8-19-year-old students in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Sunyue; Chen, Lijian; Wang, Qineng; Li, Qinggong

    2018-04-10

    Previous studies have shown that prolonged time spent on screen-based sedentary behavior was significantly associated with lower health status in children, independent of physical activity levels. The study aimed to explore the individual and environmental correlates of screen time (ST) among 8-19-year-old students in China. The study surveyed ST using a self-administered questionnaire in Chinese students aged 8-19 years; 1063 participants were included in the final analysis. Individual and environmental correlates of ST were assessed using a mixed-effects model (for continuous outcome variables) and multiple logistic regression model (for binary outcome variables). Prolonged ST was observed in 14.7% of boys and 8.9% of girls. Of the ST, weekend and mobile phone/tablet use represented 80% and 40%, respectively. A positive relationship was observed between media accessibility and ST in both boys and girls (p negative factor for longer ST (p mobile phone/tablet or a computer rather than viewing a TV, along with increased media accessibility, increased ST. These results indicate that greater media accessibility was positively associated and the presence of parents/others was negatively associated with prolonged ST in both Chinese boys and girls. Development of new and effective strategies against prolonged ST are required, especially for small screen device-based ST on weekends.

  16. Models of Community-Based Hepatitis B Surface Antigen Screening Programs in the U.S. and Their Estimated Outcomes and Costs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rein, David B.; Lesesne, Sarah B.; Smith, Bryce D.; Weinbaum, Cindy M.

    2011-01-01

    Objectives Information on the process and method of service delivery is sparse for hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) testing, and no systematic study has evaluated the relative effectiveness or cost-effectiveness of different HBsAg screening models. To address this need, we compared five specific community-based screening programs. Methods We funded five HBsAg screening programs to collect information on their design, costs, and outcomes of participants during a six-month observation period. We categorized programs into four types of models. For each model, we calculated the number screened, the number screened as per Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommendations, and the cost per screening. Results The models varied by cost per person screened and total number of people screened, but they did not differ meaningfully in the proportion of people screened following CDC recommendations, the proportion of those screened who tested positive, or the proportion of those who newly tested positive. Conclusions Integrating screening into outpatient service settings is the most cost-effective method but may not reach all people needing to be screened. Future research should examine cost-effective methods that expand the reach of screening into communities in outpatient settings. PMID:21800750

  17. Application of a predictive Bayesian model to environmental accounting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anex, R P; Englehardt, J D

    2001-03-30

    Environmental accounting techniques are intended to capture important environmental costs and benefits that are often overlooked in standard accounting practices. Environmental accounting methods themselves often ignore or inadequately represent large but highly uncertain environmental costs and costs conditioned by specific prior events. Use of a predictive Bayesian model is demonstrated for the assessment of such highly uncertain environmental and contingent costs. The predictive Bayesian approach presented generates probability distributions for the quantity of interest (rather than parameters thereof). A spreadsheet implementation of a previously proposed predictive Bayesian model, extended to represent contingent costs, is described and used to evaluate whether a firm should undertake an accelerated phase-out of its PCB containing transformers. Variability and uncertainty (due to lack of information) in transformer accident frequency and severity are assessed simultaneously using a combination of historical accident data, engineering model-based cost estimates, and subjective judgement. Model results are compared using several different risk measures. Use of the model for incorporation of environmental risk management into a company's overall risk management strategy is discussed.

  18. Quality assurance target for community-based breast cancer screening in China: a model simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Lan; Wang, Jing; Cheng, Juan; Wang, Yuan; Lu, Wenli

    2018-03-07

    We aimed to clarify the feasibility of a community-based screening strategy for breast cancer in Tianjin, China; to identify the factors that most significantly influenced its feasibility; and to identify the reference range for quality control. A state-transition Markov model simulated a hypothetical cohort of 100,000 healthy women, the start aged was set at 35 years and the time horizon was set to 50 years. The primary outcome for the model was the incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR), defined as the program's cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Three screening strategies providing by community health service for women aged 35 to 69 years was compared regarding to different intervals. The probability of the ICUR being below 20 272USD (i.e., triple the annual gross domestic product [3 GDPs]) per QALY saved was 100% for annual screening strategy and screening every three years. Only when the attendance rate was > 50%, the probability for annual screening would be cost effective > 95%. The probability for the annual screening strategy being cost effective could reach to 95% for a willingness-to-pay (WTP) of 2 GDPs when the compliance rate for transfer was > 80%. When 10% stage I tumors were detected by screening, the probability of the annual screening strategy being cost effective would be up to 95% for a WTP > 3 GDPs. Annual community-based breast cancer screening was cost effective for a WTP of 3 GDP based on the incidence of breast cancer in Tianjin, China. Measures are needed to ensure performance indicators to a desirable level for the cost-effectiveness of breast cancer screening.

  19. Environmental indicators and international models for making decision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Polanco, Camilo

    2006-01-01

    The last international features proposed by the Organization for Economic Cooperation Development (OECD) and United Nations (UN) are analyzed in the use of the environmental indicators, in typology, selection criteria, and models, for organizing the information for management, environmental performance, and decision making. The advantages and disadvantages of each model are analyzed, as well as their environmental index characteristics. The analyzed models are Pressure - State - Response (PSR) and its conceptual developments: Driving Force - State Response (DSR), Driving Force - Pressure - State - Impact - Response (DPSIR), Model- Flow-Quality (MFQ), Pressure - State - Impact - Effect - Response (PSIER), and, finally, Pressure-State - Impact - Effect - Response - Management (PSIERM). The use of one or another model will depend on the quality of the available information, as well as on the proposed objectives

  20. Cost-Effectiveness of HBV and HCV Screening Strategies – A Systematic Review of Existing Modelling Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geue, Claudia; Wu, Olivia; Xin, Yiqiao; Heggie, Robert; Hutchinson, Sharon; Martin, Natasha K.; Fenwick, Elisabeth; Goldberg, David

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Studies evaluating the cost-effectiveness of screening for Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) and Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) are generally heterogeneous in terms of risk groups, settings, screening intervention, outcomes and the economic modelling framework. It is therefore difficult to compare cost-effectiveness results between studies. This systematic review aims to summarise and critically assess existing economic models for HBV and HCV in order to identify the main methodological differences in modelling approaches. Methods A structured search strategy was developed and a systematic review carried out. A critical assessment of the decision-analytic models was carried out according to the guidelines and framework developed for assessment of decision-analytic models in Health Technology Assessment of health care interventions. Results The overall approach to analysing the cost-effectiveness of screening strategies was found to be broadly consistent for HBV and HCV. However, modelling parameters and related structure differed between models, producing different results. More recent publications performed better against a performance matrix, evaluating model components and methodology. Conclusion When assessing screening strategies for HBV and HCV infection, the focus should be on more recent studies, which applied the latest treatment regimes, test methods and had better and more complete data on which to base their models. In addition to parameter selection and associated assumptions, careful consideration of dynamic versus static modelling is recommended. Future research may want to focus on these methodological issues. In addition, the ability to evaluate screening strategies for multiple infectious diseases, (HCV and HIV at the same time) might prove important for decision makers. PMID:26689908

  1. Validation of periodontitis screening model using sociodemographic, systemic, and molecular information in a Korean population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hyun-Duck; Sukhbaatar, Munkhzaya; Shin, Myungseop; Ahn, Yoo-Been; Yoo, Wook-Sung

    2014-12-01

    This study aims to evaluate and validate a periodontitis screening model that includes sociodemographic, metabolic syndrome (MetS), and molecular information, including gingival crevicular fluid (GCF), matrix metalloproteinase (MMP), and blood cytokines. The authors selected 506 participants from the Shiwha-Banwol cohort: 322 participants from the 2005 cohort for deriving the screening model and 184 participants from the 2007 cohort for its validation. Periodontitis was assessed by dentists using the community periodontal index. Interleukin (IL)-6, IL-8, and tumor necrosis factor-α in blood and MMP-8, -9, and -13 in GCF were assayed using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. MetS was assessed by physicians using physical examination and blood laboratory data. Information about age, sex, income, smoking, and drinking was obtained by interview. Logistic regression analysis was applied to finalize the best-fitting model and validate the model using sensitivity, specificity, and c-statistics. The derived model for periodontitis screening had a sensitivity of 0.73, specificity of 0.85, and c-statistic of 0.86 (P validated model were 0.64, 0.91, and 0.83 (P <0.001), respectively. The model that included age, sex, income, smoking, drinking, and blood and GCF biomarkers could be useful in screening for periodontitis. A future prospective study is indicated for evaluating this model's ability to predict the occurrence of periodontitis.

  2. A model for determination of screening level for radioactive elements in soil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peres, Ana Claudia

    2007-01-01

    At the present, decision about clean-up of Brazilian sites contaminated with radioactive isotopes is addressed on a case-by-case basis, since there is no general guidance or recommendation to support actions in early phases of the problem identification. For chemicals, CETESB - the governmental organization responsible for preventing and controlling environmental pollution in Sao Paulo State - established background values, prevention and intervention, as the first step to implement a remediation actions based on human health risk assessment. The aim of this study was to develop a methodology for the establishment of target values for radioactive soil contamination, as far as possible consistent and compatible with the approach adopted by CETESB for sites contaminated with chemicals. The following steps have been addressed in this study: conceptual scenario and model development; codification of the equations in an electronic spreadsheet; selection of proper range and statistical distribution of the input values; derivation of the intervention levels for selected radionuclides using Monte Carlo methods. The mathematical model developed was mainly based on the equations used by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) for soil screening purposes. Intervention and prevention values are presented for adult and 10 years old child, for each 3 exposure scenarios: agricultural, residential and industrial; the following radionuclides were considered: 3 H, 14 C, 32 P, 35 S, 45 Ca, 51 Cr, 90 Sr, 125 I, 131 I, 134 Cs, 137 Cs, 210 Pb, 226 Ra, 228 Ra, 232 Th, 238 U, 239 Pu and 241 Am. Quality reference values were determined for 40 K, 137 Cs, 210 Pb, 226 Ra, 228 Ra, 228 Th, Th-nat e U-nat. Results obtained in this study showed a good agreement with those reported by NCRP, considering that the equations and the input data used in both models are not the same ones.(author)

  3. A review of mathematical models in economic environmental problems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nahorski, Z.; Ravn, H.F.

    2000-01-01

    The paper presents a review of mathematical models used,in economic analysis of environmental problems. This area of research combines macroeconomic models of growth, as dependent on capital, labour, resources, etc., with environmental models describing such phenomena like natural resources...... exhaustion or pollution accumulation and degradation. In simpler cases the models can be treated analytically and the utility function can be optimized using, e.g., such tools as the maximum principle. In more complicated cases calculation of the optimal environmental policies requires a computer solution....

  4. A partial exponential lumped parameter model to evaluate groundwater age distributions and nitrate trends in long-screened wells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jurgens, Bryant; Böhlke, John Karl; Kauffman, Leon J.; Belitz, Kenneth; Esser, Bradley K.

    2016-01-01

    A partial exponential lumped parameter model (PEM) was derived to determine age distributions and nitrate trends in long-screened production wells. The PEM can simulate age distributions for wells screened over any finite interval of an aquifer that has an exponential distribution of age with depth. The PEM has 3 parameters – the ratio of saturated thickness to the top and bottom of the screen and mean age, but these can be reduced to 1 parameter (mean age) by using well construction information and estimates of the saturated thickness. The PEM was tested with data from 30 production wells in a heterogeneous alluvial fan aquifer in California, USA. Well construction data were used to guide parameterization of a PEM for each well and mean age was calibrated to measured environmental tracer data (3H, 3He, CFC-113, and 14C). Results were compared to age distributions generated for individual wells using advective particle tracking models (PTMs). Age distributions from PTMs were more complex than PEM distributions, but PEMs provided better fits to tracer data, partly because the PTMs did not simulate 14C accurately in wells that captured varying amounts of old groundwater recharged at lower rates prior to groundwater development and irrigation. Nitrate trends were simulated independently of the calibration process and the PEM provided good fits for at least 11 of 24 wells. This work shows that the PEM, and lumped parameter models (LPMs) in general, can often identify critical features of the age distributions in wells that are needed to explain observed tracer data and nonpoint source contaminant trends, even in systems where aquifer heterogeneity and water-use complicate distributions of age. While accurate PTMs are preferable for understanding and predicting aquifer-scale responses to water use and contaminant transport, LPMs can be sensitive to local conditions near individual wells that may be inaccurately represented or missing in an aquifer-scale flow model.

  5. Risk prediction models for selection of lung cancer screening candidates: A retrospective validation study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin Ten Haaf

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Selection of candidates for lung cancer screening based on individual risk has been proposed as an alternative to criteria based on age and cumulative smoking exposure (pack-years. Nine previously established risk models were assessed for their ability to identify those most likely to develop or die from lung cancer. All models considered age and various aspects of smoking exposure (smoking status, smoking duration, cigarettes per day, pack-years smoked, time since smoking cessation as risk predictors. In addition, some models considered factors such as gender, race, ethnicity, education, body mass index, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, emphysema, personal history of cancer, personal history of pneumonia, and family history of lung cancer.Retrospective analyses were performed on 53,452 National Lung Screening Trial (NLST participants (1,925 lung cancer cases and 884 lung cancer deaths and 80,672 Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO ever-smoking participants (1,463 lung cancer cases and 915 lung cancer deaths. Six-year lung cancer incidence and mortality risk predictions were assessed for (1 calibration (graphically by comparing the agreement between the predicted and the observed risks, (2 discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] between individuals with and without lung cancer (death, and (3 clinical usefulness (net benefit in decision curve analysis by identifying risk thresholds at which applying risk-based eligibility would improve lung cancer screening efficacy. To further assess performance, risk model sensitivities and specificities in the PLCO were compared to those based on the NLST eligibility criteria. Calibration was satisfactory, but discrimination ranged widely (AUCs from 0.61 to 0.81. The models outperformed the NLST eligibility criteria over a substantial range of risk thresholds in decision curve analysis, with a higher sensitivity for all models and a

  6. A comparison of scoring models for computerised mental health screening for federal prison inmates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Michael S; Wamboldt, Ashley D; O'Connor, Shannon L; Fortier, Julie; Simpson, Alexander I F

    2013-02-01

    There are high rates of mental disorder in correctional environments, so effective mental health screening is needed. Implementation of the computerised mental health screen of the Correctional Service of Canada has led to improved identification of offenders with mental health needs but with high rates of false positives. The goal of this study is to evaluate the use of an iterative classification tree (ICT) approach to mental health screening compared with a simple binary approach using cut-off scores on screening tools. A total of 504 consecutive admissions to federal prison completed the screen and were also interviewed by a mental health professional. Relationships between screening results and more extended assessment and clinical team discussion were tested. The ICT was more parsimonious in identifying probable 'cases' than standard binary screening. ICT was also highly accurate at detecting mental health needs (AUC=0.87, 95% CI 0.84-0.90). The model identified 118 (23.4%) offenders as likely to need further assessment or treatment, 87% of whom were confirmed cases at clinical interview. Of the 244 (48.4%) offenders who were screened out, only 9% were clinically assessed as requiring further assessment or treatment. Standard binary screening was characterised by more false positives and a comparable false negative rate. The use of ICTs to interpret screening data on the mental health of prisoners needs further evaluation in independent samples in Canada and elsewhere. This first evaluation of the application of such an approach offers the prospect of more effective and efficient use of the scarce resource of mental health services in prisons. Although not required, the use of computers can increase the ease of implementing an ICT model. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  7. Cost-effectiveness of community screening for glaucoma in rural India: a decision analytical model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    John, D; Parikh, R

    2018-02-01

    Studies in several countries have demonstrated the cost-effectiveness of population-based screening for glaucoma when targeted at high-risk groups such as older adults and with familial history of disease. This study conducts a cost-effective analysis of a hypothetical community screening and subsequent treatment programme in comparison to opportunistic case finding for glaucoma in rural India. A hypothetical screening programme for both primary open-angle glaucoma and angle-closure disease was built for a population aged between 40 and 69 years in rural areas of India. A decision analytical model was built to model events, costs and treatment pathways with and without a hypothetical screening programme for glaucoma for a rural-based population aged between 40 and 69 years in India. The treatment pathway included both primary open-angle glaucoma and angle-closure disease. The data on costs of screening and treatment were provided by an administrator of a tertiary eye hospital in Eastern India. The probabilities for the screening and treatment pathway were derived from published literature and a glaucoma specialist. The glaucoma prevalence rates were adapted from the Chennai Glaucoma Study findings. An incremental cost-effectiveness ratio value of ₹7292.30 per quality-adjusted life-year was calculated for a community-screening programme for glaucoma in rural India. The community screening for glaucoma would treat an additional 2872 cases and prevent 2190 person-years of blindness over a 10-year period. Community screening for glaucoma in rural India appears to be cost-effective when judged by a ratio of willingness-to-pay thresholds as per WHO-CHOICE guidelines. For community screening to be cost-effective, adequate resources, such as trained medical personnel and equipment would need to be made available. Copyright © 2017 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Screening-Level Ecological Risk Assessment Methods, Revision 3

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mirenda, Richard J. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2012-08-16

    This document provides guidance for screening-level assessments of potential adverse impacts to ecological resources from release of environmental contaminants at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL or the Laboratory). The methods presented are based on two objectives, namely: to provide a basis for reaching consensus with regulators, managers, and other interested parties on how to conduct screening-level ecological risk investigations at the Laboratory; and to provide guidance for ecological risk assessors under the Environmental Programs (EP) Directorate. This guidance promotes consistency, rigor, and defensibility in ecological screening investigations and in reporting those investigation results. The purpose of the screening assessment is to provide information to the risk managers so informed riskmanagement decisions can be made. This document provides examples of recommendations and possible risk-management strategies.

  9. A resource oriented webs service for environmental modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferencik, Ioan

    2013-04-01

    Environmental modeling is a largely adopted practice in the study of natural phenomena. Environmental models can be difficult to build and use and thus sharing them within the community is an important aspect. The most common approach to share a model is to expose it as a web service. In practice the interaction with this web service is cumbersome due to lack of standardized contract and the complexity of the model being exposed. In this work we investigate the use of a resource oriented approach in exposing environmental models as web services. We view a model as a layered resource build atop the object concept from Object Oriented Programming, augmented with persistence capabilities provided by an embedded object database to keep track of its state and implementing the four basic principles of resource oriented architectures: addressability, statelessness, representation and uniform interface. For implementation we use exclusively open source software: Django framework, dyBase object oriented database and Python programming language. We developed a generic framework of resources structured into a hierarchy of types and consequently extended this typology with recurses specific to the domain of environmental modeling. To test our web service we used cURL, a robust command-line based web client.

  10. Comparing deep learning models for population screening using chest radiography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivaramakrishnan, R.; Antani, Sameer; Candemir, Sema; Xue, Zhiyun; Abuya, Joseph; Kohli, Marc; Alderson, Philip; Thoma, George

    2018-02-01

    According to the World Health Organization (WHO), tuberculosis (TB) remains the most deadly infectious disease in the world. In a 2015 global annual TB report, 1.5 million TB related deaths were reported. The conditions worsened in 2016 with 1.7 million reported deaths and more than 10 million people infected with the disease. Analysis of frontal chest X-rays (CXR) is one of the most popular methods for initial TB screening, however, the method is impacted by the lack of experts for screening chest radiographs. Computer-aided diagnosis (CADx) tools have gained significance because they reduce the human burden in screening and diagnosis, particularly in countries that lack substantial radiology services. State-of-the-art CADx software typically is based on machine learning (ML) approaches that use hand-engineered features, demanding expertise in analyzing the input variances and accounting for the changes in size, background, angle, and position of the region of interest (ROI) on the underlying medical imagery. More automatic Deep Learning (DL) tools have demonstrated promising results in a wide range of ML applications. Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), a class of DL models, have gained research prominence in image classification, detection, and localization tasks because they are highly scalable and deliver superior results with end-to-end feature extraction and classification. In this study, we evaluated the performance of CNN based DL models for population screening using frontal CXRs. The results demonstrate that pre-trained CNNs are a promising feature extracting tool for medical imagery including the automated diagnosis of TB from chest radiographs but emphasize the importance of large data sets for the most accurate classification.

  11. Environmental Measurement While Drilling System for Real-Time Field Screening of Contaminants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lockwood, G.J.; Normann, R.A.; Williams, C.V.

    1999-01-01

    Sampling during environmental drilling is essential to fully characterize the spatial distribution and migration of subsurface contaminants. However, analysis of the samples is expensive and time-consuming: off-site laboratory analysis can take weeks or months. Real-time information on environmental conditions, drill bit location and temperature during drilling is valuable in many environmental restoration operations. This type of information can be used to provide field screening data and improved efficiency of site characterization activities. The Environmental Measurement-While-Drilling (EMWD) System represents an innovative blending of new and existing technology in order to obtain real-time data during drilling. The system consists of two subsystems. The down-hole subsystem (at the drill bit) consists of sensors, a power supply, a signal conditioning and transmitter board, and a radio-frequency (RF) coaxial cable. The up-hole subsystem consists of a battery pack/coil, pickup coil, receiver, and personal computer. The system is compatible with fluid miser drill pipe, a directional drilling technique that uses minimal drilling fluids and generates little to no secondary waste. In EMWD, downhole sensors are located behind the drill bit and linked by a high-speed data transmission system to a computer at the surface. Sandia-developed Windowstrademark-based software is used for data display and storage. As drilling is conducted, data is collected on the nature and extent of contamination, enabling on-the-spot decisions regarding drilling and sampling strategies. Initially, the downhole sensor consisted of a simple gamma radiation detector, a Geiger-Mueller tube (GMT). The design includes data assurance techniques to increase safety by reducing the probability of giving a safe indication when an unsafe condition exists. The EMWD system has been improved by the integration of a Gamma Ray Spectrometer (GRS) in place of the GMT. The GRS consists of a sodium iodide

  12. Benefits and harms of prostate cancer screening – predictions of the ONCOTYROL prostate cancer outcome and policy model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikolai Mühlberger

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A recent recalibration of the ONCOTYROL Prostate Cancer Outcome and Policy (PCOP Model, assuming that latent prostate cancer (PCa detectable at autopsy might be detectable by screening as well, resulted in considerable worsening of the benefit-harm balance of screening. In this study, we used the recalibrated model to assess the effects of familial risk, quality of life (QoL preferences, age, and active surveillance. Methods Men with average and elevated familial PCa risk were simulated in separate models, differing in familial risk parameters. Familial risk was assumed to affect PCa onset and progression simultaneously in the base-case, and separately in scenario analyses. Evaluated screening strategies included one-time screening at different ages, and screening at different intervals and age ranges. Optimal screening strategies were identified depending on age and individual QoL preferences. Strategies were additionally evaluated with active surveillance by biennial re-biopsy delaying treatment of localized cancer until grade progression to Gleason score ≥ 7. Results Screening men with average PCa risk reduced quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE even under favorable assumptions. Men with elevated familial risk, depending on age and disutilities, gained QALE. While for men with familial risk aged 55 and 60 years annual screening to age 69 was the optimal strategy over most disutility ranges, no screening was the preferred option for 65 year-old men with average and above disutilities. Active surveillance greatly reduced overtreatment, but QALE gains by averted adverse events were opposed by losses due to delayed treatment and additional biopsies. The effect of active surveillance on the benefit-harm balance of screening differed between populations, as net losses and gains in QALE predicted for screening without active surveillance in men with average and familial PCa risk, respectively, were both reduced

  13. A scoring model for predicting advanced colorectal neoplasia in a screened population of asymptomatic Japanese individuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sekiguchi, Masau; Kakugawa, Yasuo; Matsumoto, Minori; Matsuda, Takahisa

    2018-01-22

    Risk stratification of screened populations could help improve colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. Use of the modified Asia-Pacific Colorectal Screening (APCS) score has been proposed in the Asia-Pacific region. This study was performed to build a new useful scoring model for CRC screening. Data were reviewed from 5218 asymptomatic Japanese individuals who underwent their first screening colonoscopy. Multivariate logistic regression was used to investigate risk factors for advanced colorectal neoplasia (ACN), and a new scoring model for the prediction of ACN was developed based on the results. The discriminatory capability of the new model and the modified APCS score were assessed and compared. Internal validation was also performed. ACN was detected in 225 participants. An 8-point scoring model for the prediction of ACN was developed using five independent risk factors for ACN (male sex, higher age, presence of two or more first-degree relatives with CRC, body mass index of > 22.5 kg/m 2 , and smoking history of > 18.5 pack-years). The prevalence of ACN was 1.6% (34/2172), 5.3% (127/2419), and 10.2% (64/627) in participants with scores of statistic of the scoring model was 0.70 (95% confidence interval, 0.67-0.73) in both the development and internal validation sets, and this value was higher than that of the modified APCS score [0.68 (95% confidence interval, 0.65-0.71), P = 0.03]. We built a new simple scoring model for prediction of ACN in a Japanese population that could stratify the screened population into low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups.

  14. Creation of a National, At-home Model for Ashkenazi Jewish Carrier Screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grinzaid, Karen Arnovitz; Page, Patricia Zartman; Denton, Jessica Johnson; Ginsberg, Jessica

    2015-06-01

    Ethnicity-based carrier screening for the Ashkenazi Jewish population has been available and encouraged by advocacy and community groups since the early 1970's. Both the American College of Medical Genetics and the American Congress of Obstetricians and Gynecologists recommend carrier screening for this population (Obstetrics and Gynecology, 114(4), 950-953, 2009; Genetics in Medicine, 10(1), 55-56, 2008). While many physicians inquire about ethnic background and offer appropriate carrier screening, studies show that a gap remains in implementing recommendations (Genetic testing and molecular biomarkers, 2011). In addition, education and outreach efforts targeting Jewish communities have had limited success in reaching this at-risk population. Despite efforts by the medical and Jewish communities, many Jews of reproductive age are not aware of screening, and remain at risk for having children with preventable diseases. Reaching this population, preferably pre-conception, and facilitating access to screening is critically important. To address this need, genetic counselors at Emory University developed JScreen, a national Jewish genetic disease screening program. The program includes a national marketing and PR campaign, online education, at-home saliva-based screening, post-test genetic counseling via telephone or secure video conferencing, and referrals for face-to-face genetic counseling as needed. Our goals are to create a successful education and screening program for this population and to develop a model that could potentially be used for other at-risk populations.

  15. Development of a Clinical Forecasting Model to Predict Comorbid Depression Among Diabetes Patients and an Application in Depression Screening Policy Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Haomiao; Wu, Shinyi; Di Capua, Paul

    2015-09-03

    Depression is a common but often undiagnosed comorbid condition of people with diabetes. Mass screening can detect undiagnosed depression but may require significant resources and time. The objectives of this study were 1) to develop a clinical forecasting model that predicts comorbid depression among patients with diabetes and 2) to evaluate a model-based screening policy that saves resources and time by screening only patients considered as depressed by the clinical forecasting model. We trained and validated 4 machine learning models by using data from 2 safety-net clinical trials; we chose the one with the best overall predictive ability as the ultimate model. We compared model-based policy with alternative policies, including mass screening and partial screening, on the basis of depression history or diabetes severity. Logistic regression had the best overall predictive ability of the 4 models evaluated and was chosen as the ultimate forecasting model. Compared with mass screening, the model-based policy can save approximately 50% to 60% of provider resources and time but will miss identifying about 30% of patients with depression. Partial-screening policy based on depression history alone found only a low rate of depression. Two other heuristic-based partial screening policies identified depression at rates similar to those of the model-based policy but cost more in resources and time. The depression prediction model developed in this study has compelling predictive ability. By adopting the model-based depression screening policy, health care providers can use their resources and time better and increase their efficiency in managing their patients with depression.

  16. The value of models in informing resource allocation in colorectal cancer screening – 1 the case of the Netherlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Hees, Frank; Zauber, Ann G.; van Veldhuizen, Harriët; Heijnen, Marie-Louise A.; Penning, Corine; de Koning, Harry J.; van Ballegooijen, Marjolein; Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris

    2015-01-01

    In May 2011, the Dutch government decided to implement a national programme for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening using biennial faecal immunochemical test (FIT) screening between ages 55 and 75.[1] Decision modelling played an important role in informing this decision, as well as in the planning and implementation of the programme afterwards. In this overview, we illustrate the value of models in informing resource allocation in CRC screening, using the role that decision modelling has played in the Dutch CRC screening programme as an example. PMID:26063755

  17. Environmental Parametric Cost Model in Oil and Gas EPC Contracts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Madjid Abbaspour

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aims at identifying the parameters that govern the environmental costs in oil and gas projects. An initial conceptual model was proposed. Next, the costs of environmental management work packages were estimated, separately and were applied in project control tools (WBS/CBS. Then, an environmental parametric cost model was designed to determine the environmental costs and relevant weighting factors. The suggested model can be considered as an innovative approach to designate the environmental indicators in oil and gas projects. The validity of variables was investigated based on Delphi method. The results indicated that the project environmental management’s weighting factor is 0.87% of total project’s weighting factor.

  18. Screening of pollution control and clean-up materials for river chemical spills using the multiple case-based reasoning method with a difference-driven revision strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Rentao; Jiang, Jiping; Guo, Liang; Shi, Bin; Liu, Jie; Du, Zhaolin; Wang, Peng

    2016-06-01

    In-depth filtering of emergency disposal technology (EDT) and materials has been required in the process of environmental pollution emergency disposal. However, an urgent problem that must be solved is how to quickly and accurately select the most appropriate materials for treating a pollution event from the existing spill control and clean-up materials (SCCM). To meet this need, the following objectives were addressed in this study. First, the material base and a case base for environment pollution emergency disposal were established to build a foundation and provide material for SCCM screening. Second, the multiple case-based reasoning model method with a difference-driven revision strategy (DDRS-MCBR) was applied to improve the original dual case-based reasoning model method system, and screening and decision-making was performed for SCCM using this model. Third, an actual environmental pollution accident from 2012 was used as a case study to verify the material base, case base, and screening model. The results demonstrated that the DDRS-MCBR method was fast, efficient, and practical. The DDRS-MCBR method changes the passive situation in which the choice of SCCM screening depends only on the subjective experience of the decision maker and offers a new approach to screening SCCM.

  19. A goal programming model for environmental policy analysis: Application to Spain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    San Cristóbal, José Ramón

    2012-01-01

    Sustainable development has become an important part of international and national approaches to integrate economic, environmental, social and ethical considerations so that a good quality of life can be enjoyed by current and future generations for as long as possible. However, nowadays sustainable development is threatened by industrial pollution emissions which cause serious environmental problems. Due to a lack of adequate quantitative models for environmental policy analysis, there is a strong need for analytical models in order to know the effects of environmental policies. In the present paper, a goal programming model, based on an environmental/input–output linear programming model, is developed and applied to the Spanish economy. The model combines relations between economic, energy, social and environmental effects, providing valuable information for policy-makers in order to define and examine the different goals that must be implemented to reach sustainability. - Highlights: ► In this paper a goal programming model is developed. ► The model considers environmental, energy, social and economic goals. ► The model shows the effects of a reduction in greenhouse gasses emission and energy requirements. ► The model is applied to the Spanish economy.

  20. Environmental Management Model for Road Maintenance Operation Involving Community Participation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Triyono, A. R. H.; Setyawan, A.; Sobriyah; Setiono, P.

    2017-07-01

    Public expectations of Central Java, which is very high on demand fulfillment, especially road infrastructure as outlined in the number of complaints and community expectations tweeter, Short Mail Massage (SMS), e-mail and public reports from various media, Highways Department of Central Java province requires development model of environmental management in the implementation of a routine way by involving the community in order to fulfill the conditions of a representative, may serve road users safely and comfortably. This study used survey method with SEM analysis and SWOT with Latent Independent Variable (X), namely; Public Participation in the regulation, development, construction and supervision of road (PSM); Public behavior in the utilization of the road (PMJ) Provincial Road Service (PJP); Safety in the Provincial Road (KJP); Integrated Management System (SMT) and latent dependent variable (Y) routine maintenance of the provincial road that is integrated with the environmental management system and involve the participation of the community (MML). The result showed the implementation of routine maintenance of road conditions in Central Java province has yet to implement an environmental management by involving the community; Therefore developed environmental management model with the results of H1: Community Participation (PSM) has positive influence on the Model of Environmental Management (MML); H2: Behavior Society in Jalan Utilization (PMJ) positive effect on Model Environmental Management (MML); H3: Provincial Road Service (PJP) positive effect on Model Environmental Management (MML); H4: Safety in the Provincial Road (KJP) positive effect on Model Environmental Management (MML); H5: Integrated Management System (SMT) has positive influence on the Model of Environmental Management (MML). From the analysis obtained formulation model describing the relationship / influence of the independent variables PSM, PMJ, PJP, KJP, and SMT on the dependent variable

  1. Screening Risk Assessment for Possible Radionuclides in the Amchitka Marine Environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NNSA/NV

    2002-10-31

    As part of its environmental stewardship program the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is reevaluating three sites where underground nuclear tests were conducted in the deep subsurface of Amchitka Island, Alaska. The tests (i.e., Long Shot, Milrow, and Cannikin) were conducted in 1965, 1969, and 1971, respectively. Extensive investigations were conducted on these tests and their effect on the environment. Evaluations at the time of testing indicated limited release of radionuclides and absence of risk related to the testing; however, these are being reevaluated under the current DOE environmental stewardship program. A screening risk assessment of potential radionuclide release into the marine environment is an important part of this reevaluation. The risk assessment is one of three interrelated activities: a groundwater model and this screening risk assessment, both of which guide the decisions in the third activity, the site closure plan. Thus, the overall objective of the work is to understand, and subsequently manage, any risk to humans and the environment through a closure and long-term stewardship plan. The objective of this screening risk assessment is to predict whether possible releases of radionuclides at the ocean floor would represent potential risks to Native Alaskans by consumption of marine subsistence species. In addition, risks were predicted for consumers of commercial catches of marine organisms. These risks were calculated beginning with estimates of possible radionuclide release at the seafloor (from a groundwater modeling study), into the seawater, through possible uptake by marine organisms, and finally possible consumption by humans. The risk assessment model has 11 elements, progressing from potential release at the seafloor through water and food chains to human intake. Data for each of these elements were systematically found and synthesized from many sources, and represent the best available knowledge. Whenever precise data were lacking

  2. In vivo DNA mismatch repair measurement in zebrafish embryos and its use in screening of environmental carcinogens

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Yuanhong; Huang, Changjiang; Bai, Chenglian; Du, Changchun; Liao, Junhua; Dong, Qiaoxiang

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • We developed an in vivo DNA mismatch repair (MMR) measurement assay in zebrafish embryos. • This assay involves microinjection of homo- and heteroduplex EGFP plasmids into zebrafish embryos. • This novel assay was validated with embryos from the MMR-deficient mlh1 mutant fish. • We successfully applied this assay for detecting environmental chemicals with carcinogenic effect. • This novel assay can be used for screening of environmental carcinogens. - Abstract: Impairment of DNA mismatch repair (MMR) function leads to the development and progression of certain cancers. Many environmental contaminants can target DNA MMR system. Currently, measurement of MMR activity is limited to in vitro or in vivo methods at the cell line level, and reports on measurement of MMR activity at the live organism level are lacking. Here, we report an efficient method to measure DNA MMR activity in zebrafish embryos. A G-T mismatch was introduced into enhanced green fluorescent protein (EGFP) gene. Repair of the G-T mismatch to G-C in the heteroduplex plasmid generates a functional EGFP expression. The heteroduplex plasmid and a similarly constructed homoduplex plasmid were injected in parallel into the same batch of embryos at 1-cell stage and EGFP expression in EGFP positive embryos was quantified at 24 h after injection. MMR efficiency was calculated as the total fluorescence intensity of embryos injected with the heteroduplex construct divided by that of embryos injected with the homoduplex construct. Our results showed 73% reduction of MMR activity in embryos derived from MMR-deficient mlh1 mutant fish (positive control) when compared with embryos from MMR-competent wild type AB line fish, indicating feasibility of in vivo MMR activity measurement in zebrafish embryos. We further applied this novel assay for measurement of MMR efficiency in embryos exposed to environmental chemicals such as cadmium chloride (CdCl_2), benzo[a]pyrene (BaP), and

  3. In vivo DNA mismatch repair measurement in zebrafish embryos and its use in screening of environmental carcinogens

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Yuanhong [Institute of Environmental Safety and Human Health, Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou 325035 (China); Huang, Changjiang, E-mail: cjhuang5711@163.com [Institute of Environmental Safety and Human Health, Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou 325035 (China); Bai, Chenglian; Du, Changchun; Liao, Junhua [Institute of Environmental Safety and Human Health, Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou 325035 (China); Dong, Qiaoxiang, E-mail: dqxdong@163.com [Institute of Environmental Safety and Human Health, Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou 325035 (China); School of Laboratory Medicine and Life Science, Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou 325035 (China)

    2016-01-25

    Highlights: • We developed an in vivo DNA mismatch repair (MMR) measurement assay in zebrafish embryos. • This assay involves microinjection of homo- and heteroduplex EGFP plasmids into zebrafish embryos. • This novel assay was validated with embryos from the MMR-deficient mlh1 mutant fish. • We successfully applied this assay for detecting environmental chemicals with carcinogenic effect. • This novel assay can be used for screening of environmental carcinogens. - Abstract: Impairment of DNA mismatch repair (MMR) function leads to the development and progression of certain cancers. Many environmental contaminants can target DNA MMR system. Currently, measurement of MMR activity is limited to in vitro or in vivo methods at the cell line level, and reports on measurement of MMR activity at the live organism level are lacking. Here, we report an efficient method to measure DNA MMR activity in zebrafish embryos. A G-T mismatch was introduced into enhanced green fluorescent protein (EGFP) gene. Repair of the G-T mismatch to G-C in the heteroduplex plasmid generates a functional EGFP expression. The heteroduplex plasmid and a similarly constructed homoduplex plasmid were injected in parallel into the same batch of embryos at 1-cell stage and EGFP expression in EGFP positive embryos was quantified at 24 h after injection. MMR efficiency was calculated as the total fluorescence intensity of embryos injected with the heteroduplex construct divided by that of embryos injected with the homoduplex construct. Our results showed 73% reduction of MMR activity in embryos derived from MMR-deficient mlh1 mutant fish (positive control) when compared with embryos from MMR-competent wild type AB line fish, indicating feasibility of in vivo MMR activity measurement in zebrafish embryos. We further applied this novel assay for measurement of MMR efficiency in embryos exposed to environmental chemicals such as cadmium chloride (CdCl{sub 2}), benzo[a]pyrene (BaP), and

  4. Lead-Time Models Should Not Be Used to Estimate Overdiagnosis in Cancer Screening

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zahl, Per-Henrik; Jørgensen, Karsten Juhl; Gøtzsche, Peter C

    2014-01-01

    screening--the excess-incidence approach and the lead-time approach--that rely on two different lead-time definitions. Overdiagnosis when screening with mammography has varied from 0 to 75 %. We have explained that these differences are mainly caused by using different definitions and methods......Lead-time can mean two different things: Clinical lead-time is the lead-time for clinically relevant tumors; that is, those that are not overdiagnosed. Model-based lead-time is a theoretical construct where the time when the tumor would have caused symptoms is not limited by the person's death....... It is the average time at which the diagnosis is brought forward for both clinically relevant and overdiagnosed cancers. When screening for breast cancer, clinical lead-time is about 1 year, while model-based lead-time varies from 2 to 7 years. There are two different methods to calculate overdiagnosis in cancer...

  5. Environmental sub models for a macroeconomic model: Agricultural contribution to climate change and acidification in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, T.S.; Jensen, J.D.; Hasler, B.

    2007-01-01

    Integrated modelling of the interaction between environmental pressure and economic development is a useful tool for evaluating the progress towards sustainable development by analysing the effects on sustainability indicators of the general economic growth and implementation of national action...... economic model, environmental satellite models of energy and waste related emissions contributing to climate change and acidification. The model extension allows the main Danish contribution to climate change and acidification to be modelled. The existing model system is extended by environmental satellite...... models, in which emission coefficients are linked to economic activity variables as modelled by the agricultural sector model ESMERALDA. Agricultural emission sources related to the activity variables in ESMERALDA are mapped in order to develop the environmental satellite models and the development...

  6. Environmental noise and noise modelling-some aspects in Malaysian development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leong, Mohd Salman; Mohd Shafiek bin Hj Yaacob

    1994-01-01

    Environmental noise is of growing concern in Malaysia with the increasing awareness of the need for an environmental quality consistent with improved quality of life. While noise is one of the several elements in an Environmental Impact Assessment report, the degree of emphasis in the assessment is not as thorough as other aspects in the EIA study. The measurements, prediction (if at all any), and evaluation tended to be superficial. The paper presents a summary of correct noise descriptors and annoyance assessment parameters appropriate for the evaluation of environmental noise. The paper further highlights current inadequacies in the Environmental Quality Act for noise pollution, and annoyance assessment. Some examples of local noise pollution are presented. A discussion on environmental noise modelling is presented. Examples illustrating environmental noise modelling for a mining operation and a power station are given. It is the authors' recommendation that environmental noise modelling be made mandatory in all EIA studies such that a more definitive assessment could be realised

  7. Hazard screening application guide. Safety Analysis Report Update Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1992-06-01

    The basic purpose of hazard screening is to group precesses, facilities, and proposed modifications according to the magnitude of their hazards so as to determine the need for and extent of follow on safety analysis. A hazard is defined as a material, energy source, or operation that has the potential to cause injury or illness in human beings. The purpose of this document is to give guidance and provide standard methods for performing hazard screening. Hazard screening is applied to new and existing facilities and processes as well as to proposed modifications to existing facilities and processes. The hazard screening process evaluates an identified hazards in terms of the effects on people, both on-site and off-site. The process uses bounding analyses with no credit given for mitigation of an accident with the exception of certain containers meeting DOT specifications. The process is restricted to human safety issues only. Environmental effects are addressed by the environmental program. Interfaces with environmental organizations will be established in order to share information.

  8. Environmental screening and evaluation of energy-using products (EuP). Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wesnaes, M. (2.-0 LCA consultants ApS, Aalborg, (Denmark)); Thestrup, J. (In-JeT ApS, Birkeroed (Denmark)); Remmen, A. (Aalborg Univ., Aalborg (Denmark))

    2009-07-01

    , existing Ecolabelling and related regulations, market access and growth, technology trends, etc. The memorandum is structured so that overall conclusions and comments are provided first followed by a detailed description of each product group or cluster of product groups. Following this structure, chapter 2 provides an executive summary with the main conclusions and findings from the work performed up till now. Chapter 3 provides an overview of the methodology used in the environmental screening. Hereafter, chapters 4 through 19 provides the background data and individual conclusions for each product group or cluster of product groups. Finally, chapter 20 through 22 provides references to all the Preparatory Studies and other literature references. (LN)

  9. Environmental challenges and opportunities of the evolving North American electricity market : Modeling techniques and estimating environmental outcomes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patterson, Z.

    2002-06-01

    Background information and results of the different models publicly available used for the evaluation of environmental effects of electricity market restructuring in the various jurisdictions in North America were included in this working paper. It comprised the description of eleven models and twelve modeling exercises. The information on each model varied greatly, as it is proprietary. The models described were: (1) the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), (2) the Department of Energy's Policy Office Electricity Modeling System (POEMS), (3) the Integrated Planning Model (IPM) utilized by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA), (4) Resources for the Future's (RFF) Haiku model, (5) the Canadian Energy Research Institute's Energy 2020 Model, (6) the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's (FERC) use of ICF's Coal and Electric Utilities Model, (7) the Center for Clean Air Policy's use of General Electric's Market Assessment and Portfolio Strategies (GE MAPS) model, (8) the Center for Clean Air Policy's use of GE MAPS in combination with New Energy Associates' Proscreen II, (9) the Commission for Environmental Cooperation use of the Front of Envelope Model, (10) Ontario Power Generation's use of the Utility Fuel Economics Model and National Power Model, and (11) New York State Department of Public Service's (NYDPS) Final Generic Environmental Impact Statement using New Energy Associates' PROMOD. Also included in this working paper was a comparison of the results of models and modeling exercises on which the estimation of the environmental effects of electricity market restructuring in the United States was based. 18 refs., 5 tabs

  10. Nonlinear Model of Vibrating Screen to Determine Permissible Spring Deterioration for Proper Separation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristian G. Rodriguez

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Springs of vibrating screens are prone to fatigue induced failure because they operate in a heavy duty environment, with abrasive dust and under heavy cyclic loads. If a spring breaks, the stiffness at supporting positions changes, and therefore the amplitude of motion and the static and dynamic angular inclination of deck motion also change. This change in the amplitude and in the inclination of motion produces a reduction in separation efficiency. Available models are useful to determine motion under nominal operating conditions when angular displacement is not significant. However in practice there is significant angular motion during startup, during shutdown, or under off-design operating conditions. In this article, a two-dimensional three-degree-of-freedom nonlinear model that considers significant angular motion and damping is developed. The proposed model allows the prediction of vibrating screen behavior when there is a reduction in spring stiffness. Making use of this model for an actual vibrating screen in operation in industry has permitted determining a limit for spring’s failure before separation efficiency is affected. This information is of practical value for operation and maintenance staff helping to determine whether or not it is necessary to change springs, and hence optimizing stoppage time.

  11. MONNIE 2000: A description of a model to calculate environmental costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanemaaijer, A.H.; Kirkx, M.C.A.P.

    2001-02-01

    A new model (MONNIE 2000) was developed by the RIVM in the Netherlands in 2000 to calculate environmental costs on a macro level. The model, it's theoretical backgrounds and the technical aspects are described, making it attractive to both the user and the designer of the model. A user manual on how to calculate with the model is included. The basic principle of the model is the use of a harmonised method for calculating environmental costs, which provides the user with an output that can easily be compared with and used in other economic statistics and macro-economic models in the Netherlands. Input for the model are yearly figures on operational costs, investments and savings from environmental measures. With MONNIE 2000 calculated environmental costs per policy target group, economic sector and theme can be shown, With this model the burden of environmental measures on the economic sectors and the environmental expenditures of the government can be presented as well. MONNIE 2000 is developed in Visual Basic and by using Excel as input and output a user-friendly data exchange is realised. 12 refs

  12. Prediction of environmental parameters of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons with COSMO-RS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schröder, B.; Santos, L.M.N.B.F.; Alves da Rocha, M.A.; Oliveira, M.B.; Marrucho, I.M.; Coutinho, J.A.P.

    2010-01-01

    The methodology for the prediction of properties of environmental relevance of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons based on the conductor-like screening model for real solvents (COSMO-RS/COSMOtherm) is presented and evaluated, with a special focus on the aqueous solubility of polycyclic aromatic

  13. Model to Evaluate Pro-Environmental Consumer Practices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wendolyn Aguilar-Salinas

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The consumer plays a key role in resource conservation; therefore, it is important to know consumer behavior to identify consumer profiles and to promote pro-environmental practices in society that encourage resource conservation and reductions in waste generation. The purpose of this paper is to implement a fuzzy model to evaluate consumer behavior in relation to three pro-environmental practices that can be implemented at the household level, including reductions in resource consumption (reduce, reuse of resources (reuse, and recycling (recycle. To identify socio-demographic profiles that characterize an environmentally responsible consumer, 2831 surveys were applied on a representative sample of consumers residing in a Mexican city. Fuzzy logic and neural networks were applied using a Sugeno-type subtractive clustering to determine each profile. The model input variables were socioeconomic status, age, education level, monthly income, occupation and the type of organizations with which the consumer is affiliated. The output variables were represented by pro-environmental practices. Results show that the consumer practices are performed independently of each other, with the most frequent pro-environmental consumer practices being reduction and reuse.

  14. Process of Integrating Screening and Detailed Risk-based Modeling Analyses to Ensure Consistent and Scientifically Defensible Results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buck, John W.; McDonald, John P.; Taira, Randal Y.

    2002-01-01

    To support cleanup and closure of these tanks, modeling is performed to understand and predict potential impacts to human health and the environment. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory developed a screening tool for the United States Department of Energy, Office of River Protection that estimates the long-term human health risk, from a strategic planning perspective, posed by potential tank releases to the environment. This tool is being conditioned to more detailed model analyses to ensure consistency between studies and to provide scientific defensibility. Once the conditioning is complete, the system will be used to screen alternative cleanup and closure strategies. The integration of screening and detailed models provides consistent analyses, efficiencies in resources, and positive feedback between the various modeling groups. This approach of conditioning a screening methodology to more detailed analyses provides decision-makers with timely and defensible information and increases confidence in the results on the part of clients, regulators, and stakeholders

  15. The use of models to assess environmental impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gustafson, P.F.

    1978-01-01

    Environmental impacts will include the effects on man as well as on other major segments of the natural or indigenous ecosystems. In their present state of development, the models used for environmental impact analysis give at least a semiquantitative estimate of the magnitude of such impacts. The methods used in the development of models are given, and their strengths and weaknesses are described. The relationship between predictive, before-the-fact models, and monitoring programs conducted during facility operation are also discussed

  16. STABILITY OF INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL AGREEMENTS IN LEADERSHIP MODEL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jin ZHANG; Shouyang WANG; Lei ZU

    2008-01-01

    International Environmental Agreements (IEAs) are a form of cooperation ratified by countries which can improve the management of shared environmental resources. The authors analyze the stability of International Environmental Agreements in leadership model. In 2006, Diamantoudi & Sartzetakis found that a stable coalition consists of either 2, 3, or 4 members if the number of countries is greater than 4. Their model is reconsidered. It is shown that the size of stable IEAs decreases from 3 to 2 when the total number of countries involved increases. However, a situation that can guarantee 4 to be the size of stable IEAs could not be found.

  17. Knowledgeable Neighbors: a mobile clinic model for disease prevention and screening in underserved communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Caterina; Zurakowski, David; Bennet, Jennifer; Walker-White, Rainelle; Osman, Jamie L; Quarles, Aaron; Oriol, Nancy

    2012-03-01

    The Family Van mobile health clinic uses a "Knowledgeable Neighbor" model to deliver cost-effective screening and prevention activities in underserved neighborhoods in Boston, MA. We have described the Knowledgeable Neighbor model and used operational data collected from 2006 to 2009 to evaluate the service. The Family Van successfully reached mainly minority low-income men and women. Of the clients screened, 60% had previously undetected elevated blood pressure, 14% had previously undetected elevated blood glucose, and 38% had previously undetected elevated total cholesterol. This represents an important model for reaching underserved communities to deliver proven cost-effective prevention activities, both to help control health care costs and to reduce health disparities.

  18. On the Estimation of Disease Prevalence by Latent Class Models for Screening Studies Using Two Screening Tests with Categorical Disease Status Verified in Test Positives Only

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Haitao; Zhou, Yijie; Cole, Stephen R.; Ibrahim, Joseph G.

    2010-01-01

    Summary To evaluate the probabilities of a disease state, ideally all subjects in a study should be diagnosed by a definitive diagnostic or gold standard test. However, since definitive diagnostic tests are often invasive and expensive, it is generally unethical to apply them to subjects whose screening tests are negative. In this article, we consider latent class models for screening studies with two imperfect binary diagnostic tests and a definitive categorical disease status measured only for those with at least one positive screening test. Specifically, we discuss a conditional independent and three homogeneous conditional dependent latent class models and assess the impact of misspecification of the dependence structure on the estimation of disease category probabilities using frequentist and Bayesian approaches. Interestingly, the three homogeneous dependent models can provide identical goodness-of-fit but substantively different estimates for a given study. However, the parametric form of the assumed dependence structure itself is not “testable” from the data, and thus the dependence structure modeling considered here can only be viewed as a sensitivity analysis concerning a more complicated non-identifiable model potentially involving heterogeneous dependence structure. Furthermore, we discuss Bayesian model averaging together with its limitations as an alternative way to partially address this particularly challenging problem. The methods are applied to two cancer screening studies, and simulations are conducted to evaluate the performance of these methods. In summary, further research is needed to reduce the impact of model misspecification on the estimation of disease prevalence in such settings. PMID:20191614

  19. Specification and Aggregation Errors in Environmentally Extended Input-Output Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouwmeester, Maaike C.; Oosterhaven, Jan

    This article considers the specification and aggregation errors that arise from estimating embodied emissions and embodied water use with environmentally extended national input-output (IO) models, instead of with an environmentally extended international IO model. Model specification errors result

  20. Analysis of risk indicators and issues associated with applications of screening model for hazardous and radioactive waste sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buck, J.W.; Strenge, D.L.; Droppo, J.G. Jr.

    1990-12-01

    Risk indicators, such as population risk, maximum individual risk, time of arrival of contamination, and maximum water concentrations, were analyzed to determine their effect on results from a screening model for hazardous and radioactive waste sites. The analysis of risk indicators is based on calculations resulting from exposure to air and waterborne contamination predicted with Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS) model. The different risk indicators were analyzed, based on constituent type and transport and exposure pathways. Three of the specific comparisons that were made are (1) population-based versus maximum individual-based risk indicators, (2) time of arrival of contamination, and (3) comparison of different threshold assumptions for noncarcinogenic impacts. Comparison of indicators for population- and maximum individual-based human health risk suggests that these two parameters are highly correlated, but for a given problem, one may be more important than the other. The results indicate that the arrival distribution for different levels of contamination reaching a receptor can also be helpful in decisions regarding the use of resources for remediating short- and long-term environmental problems. The addition of information from a linear model for noncarcinogenic impacts allows interpretation of results below the reference dose (RfD) levels that might help in decisions for certain applications. The analysis of risk indicators suggests that important information may be lost by the use of a single indicator to represent public health risk and that multiple indicators should be considered. 15 refs., 8 figs., 1 tab

  1. Model Fusion Tool - the Open Environmental Modelling Platform Concept

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kessler, H.; Giles, J. R.

    2010-12-01

    The vision of an Open Environmental Modelling Platform - seamlessly linking geoscience data, concepts and models to aid decision making in times of environmental change. Governments and their executive agencies across the world are facing increasing pressure to make decisions about the management of resources in light of population growth and environmental change. In the UK for example, groundwater is becoming a scarce resource for large parts of its most densely populated areas. At the same time river and groundwater flooding resulting from high rainfall events are increasing in scale and frequency and sea level rise is threatening the defences of coastal cities. There is also a need for affordable housing, improved transport infrastructure and waste disposal as well as sources of renewable energy and sustainable food production. These challenges can only be resolved if solutions are based on sound scientific evidence. Although we have knowledge and understanding of many individual processes in the natural sciences it is clear that a single science discipline is unable to answer the questions and their inter-relationships. Modern science increasingly employs computer models to simulate the natural, economic and human system. Management and planning requires scenario modelling, forecasts and ‘predictions’. Although the outputs are often impressive in terms of apparent accuracy and visualisation, they are inherently not suited to simulate the response to feedbacks from other models of the earth system, such as the impact of human actions. Geological Survey Organisations (GSO) are increasingly employing advances in Information Technology to visualise and improve their understanding of geological systems. Instead of 2 dimensional paper maps and reports many GSOs now produce 3 dimensional geological framework models and groundwater flow models as their standard output. Additionally the British Geological Survey have developed standard routines to link geological

  2. How Participatory Should Environmental Governance Be? Testing the Applicability of the Vroom-Yetton-Jago Model in Public Environmental Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lührs, Nikolas; Jager, Nicolas W.; Challies, Edward; Newig, Jens

    2018-02-01

    Public participation is potentially useful to improve public environmental decision-making and management processes. In corporate management, the Vroom-Yetton-Jago normative decision-making model has served as a tool to help managers choose appropriate degrees of subordinate participation for effective decision-making given varying decision-making contexts. But does the model recommend participatory mechanisms that would actually benefit environmental management? This study empirically tests the improved Vroom-Jago version of the model in the public environmental decision-making context. To this end, the key variables of the Vroom-Jago model are operationalized and adapted to a public environmental governance context. The model is tested using data from a meta-analysis of 241 published cases of public environmental decision-making, yielding three main sets of findings: (1) The Vroom-Jago model proves limited in its applicability to public environmental governance due to limited variance in its recommendations. We show that adjustments to key model equations make it more likely to produce meaningful recommendations. (2) We find that in most of the studied cases, public environmental managers (implicitly) employ levels of participation close to those that would have been recommended by the model. (3) An ANOVA revealed that such cases, which conform to model recommendations, generally perform better on stakeholder acceptance and environmental standards of outputs than those that diverge from the model. Public environmental management thus benefits from carefully selected and context-sensitive modes of participation.

  3. A mathematical model for environmental risk assessment in manufacturing industry

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    何莉萍; 徐盛明; 陈大川; 党创寅

    2002-01-01

    Environmental conscious manufacturing has become an important issue in industry because of market pressure and environmental regulations. An environmental risk assessment model was developed based on the network analytic method and fuzzy set theory. The "interval analysis method" was applied to deal with the on-site monitoring data as basic information for assessment. In addition, the fuzzy set theory was employed to allow uncertain, interactive and dynamic information to be effectively incorporated into the environmental risk assessment. This model is a simple, practical and effective tool for evaluating the environmental risk of manufacturing industry and for analyzing the relative impacts of emission wastes, which are hazardous to both human and ecosystem health. Furthermore, the model is considered useful for design engineers and decision-maker to design and select processes when the costs, environmental impacts and performances of a product are taken into consideration.

  4. The 'grey' assessment practice of IA screening

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bidstrup, Morten

    2017-01-01

    Research focusing on the practices surrounding screening in Impact Assessment (IA) is limited. Yet, it has been found that development proposals sometimes are adjusted through an informal dialog with IA practitioners prior to or during screening. Such practice is often referred to as ‘grey IA......’ in Denmark. This article explores the prevalence, influence and applied rationale of grey IA. Through a questionnaire, data was collected from 121 IA practitioners working within the fields of environmental impact assessment and strategic environmental assessment. It was found that grey IA is a common...... practice, which influences the outcomes of formal screening procedures through consideration of impacts on neighbours and spatial zones of protection. Grey IA is to some extent motivated by the opportunity to save the resources required for full-scale IA, but an additional ‘green’ rationale also exists...

  5. Formalize clinical processes into electronic health information systems: Modelling a screening service for diabetic retinopathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eguzkiza, Aitor; Trigo, Jesús Daniel; Martínez-Espronceda, Miguel; Serrano, Luis; Andonegui, José

    2015-08-01

    Most healthcare services use information and communication technologies to reduce and redistribute the workload associated with follow-up of chronic conditions. However, the lack of normalization of the information handled in and exchanged between such services hinders the scalability and extendibility. The use of medical standards for modelling and exchanging information, especially dual-model based approaches, can enhance the features of screening services. Hence, the approach of this paper is twofold. First, this article presents a generic methodology to model patient-centered clinical processes. Second, a proof of concept of the proposed methodology was conducted within the diabetic retinopathy (DR) screening service of the Health Service of Navarre (Spain) in compliance with a specific dual-model norm (openEHR). As a result, a set of elements required for deploying a model-driven DR screening service has been established, namely: clinical concepts, archetypes, termsets, templates, guideline definition rules, and user interface definitions. This model fosters reusability, because those elements are available to be downloaded and integrated in any healthcare service, and interoperability, since from then on such services can share information seamlessly. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Drug delivery to solid tumors: the predictive value of the multicellular tumor spheroid model for nanomedicine screening

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Millard M

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Marie Millard,1,2 Ilya Yakavets,1–3 Vladimir Zorin,3,4 Aigul Kulmukhamedova,1,2,5 Sophie Marchal,1,2 Lina Bezdetnaya1,2 1Centre de Recherche en Automatique de Nancy, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique UMR 7039, Université de Lorraine, 2Research Department, Institut de Cancérologie de Lorraine, Vandœuvre-lès-Nancy, France; 3Laboratory of Biophysics and Biotechnology, 4International Sakharov Environmental Institute, Belarusian State University, Minsk, Belarus; 5Department of Radiology, Medical Company Sunkar, Almaty, Kazakhstan Abstract: The increasing number of publications on the subject shows that nanomedicine is an attractive field for investigations aiming to considerably improve anticancer chemotherapy. Based on selective tumor targeting while sparing healthy tissue, carrier-mediated drug delivery has been expected to provide significant benefits to patients. However, despite reduced systemic toxicity, most nanodrugs approved for clinical use have been less effective than previously anticipated. The gap between experimental results and clinical outcomes demonstrates the necessity to perform comprehensive drug screening by using powerful preclinical models. In this context, in vitro three-dimensional models can provide key information on drug behavior inside the tumor tissue. The multicellular tumor spheroid (MCTS model closely mimics a small avascular tumor with the presence of proliferative cells surrounding quiescent cells and a necrotic core. Oxygen, pH and nutrient gradients are similar to those of solid tumor. Furthermore, extracellular matrix (ECM components and stromal cells can be embedded in the most sophisticated spheroid design. All these elements together with the physicochemical properties of nanoparticles (NPs play a key role in drug transport, and therefore, the MCTS model is appropriate to assess the ability of NP to penetrate the tumor tissue. This review presents recent developments in MCTS models for a

  7. Sparse modeling of spatial environmental variables associated with asthma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Timothy S; Gangnon, Ronald E; David Page, C; Buckingham, William R; Tandias, Aman; Cowan, Kelly J; Tomasallo, Carrie D; Arndt, Brian G; Hanrahan, Lawrence P; Guilbert, Theresa W

    2015-02-01

    Geographically distributed environmental factors influence the burden of diseases such as asthma. Our objective was to identify sparse environmental variables associated with asthma diagnosis gathered from a large electronic health record (EHR) dataset while controlling for spatial variation. An EHR dataset from the University of Wisconsin's Family Medicine, Internal Medicine and Pediatrics Departments was obtained for 199,220 patients aged 5-50years over a three-year period. Each patient's home address was geocoded to one of 3456 geographic census block groups. Over one thousand block group variables were obtained from a commercial database. We developed a Sparse Spatial Environmental Analysis (SASEA). Using this method, the environmental variables were first dimensionally reduced with sparse principal component analysis. Logistic thin plate regression spline modeling was then used to identify block group variables associated with asthma from sparse principal components. The addresses of patients from the EHR dataset were distributed throughout the majority of Wisconsin's geography. Logistic thin plate regression spline modeling captured spatial variation of asthma. Four sparse principal components identified via model selection consisted of food at home, dog ownership, household size, and disposable income variables. In rural areas, dog ownership and renter occupied housing units from significant sparse principal components were associated with asthma. Our main contribution is the incorporation of sparsity in spatial modeling. SASEA sequentially added sparse principal components to Logistic thin plate regression spline modeling. This method allowed association of geographically distributed environmental factors with asthma using EHR and environmental datasets. SASEA can be applied to other diseases with environmental risk factors. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Including ethical considerations in models for first-trimester screening for pre-eclampsia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Jennifer Maureen; Hedley, Paula L.; Gjerris, Mickey

    2014-01-01

    Recent efforts to develop reliable and efficient early pregnancy screening programmes for pre-eclampsia have focused on com-bining clinical, biochemical and biophysical markers. The same model has been used for first-trimester screening for fetal aneuploidies i.e. prenatal diagnosis (PD), which...... is routinely offered to all pregnant women in many developed countries. Some studies suggest combining PD and pre-eclampsia screening, so women can be offered testing for a number of conditions at the same clinical visit. A combination of these tests may be practical in terms of saving time and resources......; however, the combination raises ethical issues. First-trimester PD and pre-eclampsia screening entail qualitative differences which alter the requirements for disclosure, non-directedness and consent with regard to the informed consent process. This article explores the differences related to the ethical...

  9. Developing a Screening Model to Establish Human Risk from Glacial Meltwater Release of Legacy Organochlorine Pollutants at the Silvretta Glacier in the Swiss Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miner, K. R.

    2017-12-01

    Organochlorine pollutants (OCPs) banned globally by the Stockholm Convention in 2004 are reemerging from melting glaciers in numerous alpine ecosystems. Despite the known OCP influx from glaciers, a study of human risk from uptake of pesticides in glacial meltwater has never been attempted. Our study qualifies human uptake routes and quantifies risk utilizing published meltwater data from the Silvretta Glacier in the Swiss Alps in combination with methodology established by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Relatively high concentrations of OCPs in Silvretta glacier meltwater reflect proximity to use near high density populations and provide the best estimate of a 95th percentile human risk scenario. This screening level model assesses direct PCB risk to humans through consumption of fish tissue and meltwater. Our model shows a risk for both cancer and non-cancer disease impacts to children with lifetime exposure to glacial meltwater and an average local fish consumption. For adults with an abbreviated 30 year exposure timeframe, the risk for non-cancer effects is negligible and cancer effects are only barely above screening level. Populations that consume higher quantities of local fish are at greater risk, with additional challenges borne by children. Further direct study into the individual level risk to Swiss residents from glacial meltwater pollution is deemed necessary by our screening study.

  10. Models in environmental regulatory decision making

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Committee on Models in the Regulatory Decision Process, National Research Council

    2007-01-01

    .... Models help EPA explain environmental phenomena in settings where direct observations are limited or unavailable, and anticipate the effects of agency policies on the environment, human health and the economy...

  11. Revised draft: Northeastern Regional environmental characterization report. Volume 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-11-01

    This report presents available environmental information pertinent to siting a repository for high-level nuclear waste in crystalline rock in Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, northeastern and southeastern New York, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, northern New Jersey, and eastern Pennsylvania. For each of the states within the Northeastern Region, information is provided on those environmental disqualifying factors and regional screening variables to be used in region-to-area screening. These environmental factors and variables include existing and proposed federal protected lands, proximity to federal protected lands, existing state protected lands, proximity to state protected lands, population density and distribution, proximity to highly populated areas, national and state forest lands, state wildlife lands, designated critical habitats for threatened and endangered species, surface water bodies, and wetlands. In addition, supplementary descriptive information providing a general characterization of the region is presented, as is information on environmental parameters that may be of use at later phases of screening. Also included is a discussion of the relationship between the US Department of Energy (DOE) Siting Guidelines and those environmental disqualifying factors and regional screening variables to be used in the region-to-area screening process

  12. Revised draft: Southeastern Regional environmental characterization report. Volume 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-11-01

    This report presents available environmental information pertinent to siting a repository for high-level nuclear waste in crystalline rock in central Maryland; noncoastal Virginia, North Carolina, and South Carolina; and northern Georgia. For each of the states within the Southeastern Region, information is provided on those environmental disqualifying factors and regional screening variables to be used in region-to-area screening. These environmental factors and variables include existing and proposed federal protected lands, proximity to federal protected lands, existing state protected lands, proximity to state protected lands, population density and distribution, proximity to highly populated areas, national and state forest lands, state wild-life lands, designated critical habitats for threatened and endangered species, surface water bodies, and wetlands. In addition, supplementary descriptive information providing a general characterization of the region is presented, as is information on environmental parameters that may be of use at later phases of screening. Also included is a discussion of the relationship between the US Department of Energy (DOE) Siting Guidelines and those environmental disqualifying factors and regional screening variables to be used in the region-to-area screening process

  13. Southeastern Regional Environmental Characterization Report. Volume 1. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-08-01

    This report presents available environmental information pertinent to siting a repository for high-level nuclear waste in crystalline rock in central Maryland; noncoastal Virginia, North Carolina, and South Carolina; and northern Georgia. For each of the States within the Southeastern Region, information is provided on those environmental disqualifying factors and regional screening variables to be used in region-to-area screening. These environmental factors and variables include existing and proposd Federal-protected lands, components of National Forest Lands, proximity to Federal-protected lands, existing State-protected lands, proximity to State-protected lands, population density and distribution, proximity to highly populated areas, or to 1-mile-square areas with 1000 or more persons, national and State forest lands, designated critical habitats for threatened and endangered species, surface water bodies, and wetlands. In addition, supplementary descriptive information providing a general characterization of the region is presented, as is information on environmental parameters that will be of use at later phases of screening. Also included is a discussion of the relationship between the US Department of Energy Siting Guidelines (10 CFR 960) and those environmental disqualifying factors and regional screening variables to be used in the region-to-area screening process

  14. Revised draft: North Central Regional environmental characterization report. Volume 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-11-01

    This report presents available environmental information pertinent to siting a repository for high-level nuclear waste in crystalline rock in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. For each of the states within the North Central Region, information is provided on those environmental disqualifying factors and regional screening variables to be used in region-to-area screening. These environmental factors and variables include existing and proposed federal protected lands, proximity to federal protected lands, existing state protected lands, proximity to state protected lands, population density and distribution, proximity to highly populated areas, national and state forest lands, state wildlife lands, designated critical habitats for threatened and endangered species, surface water bodies, and wetlands. In addition, supplementary descriptive information providing a general characterization of the region is presented, as is information on environmental parameters that may be of use at later phases of screening. Also included is a discussion of the relationship between the DOE Siting Guidelines and those environmental disqualifying factors and regional screening variables to be used in the region-to-area screening process

  15. Measurement and Monte Carlo modeling of the spatial response of scintillation screens

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pistrui-Maximean, S.A. [CNDRI (NDT using Ionizing Radiation) Laboratory, INSA-Lyon, 69621 Villeurbanne (France)], E-mail: spistrui@gmail.com; Letang, J.M. [CNDRI (NDT using Ionizing Radiation) Laboratory, INSA-Lyon, 69621 Villeurbanne (France)], E-mail: jean-michel.letang@insa-lyon.fr; Freud, N. [CNDRI (NDT using Ionizing Radiation) Laboratory, INSA-Lyon, 69621 Villeurbanne (France); Koch, A. [Thales Electron Devices, 38430 Moirans (France); Walenta, A.H. [Detectors and Electronics Department, FB Physik, Siegen University, 57068 Siegen (Germany); Montarou, G. [Corpuscular Physics Laboratory, Blaise Pascal University, 63177 Aubiere (France); Babot, D. [CNDRI (NDT using Ionizing Radiation) Laboratory, INSA-Lyon, 69621 Villeurbanne (France)

    2007-11-01

    In this article, we propose a detailed protocol to carry out measurements of the spatial response of scintillation screens and to assess the agreement with simulated results. The experimental measurements have been carried out using a practical implementation of the slit method. A Monte Carlo simulation model of scintillator screens, implemented with the toolkit Geant4, has been used to study the influence of the acquisition setup parameters and to compare with the experimental results. An algorithm of global stochastic optimization based on a localized random search method has been implemented to adjust the optical parameters (optical scattering and absorption coefficients). The algorithm has been tested for different X-ray tube voltages (40, 70 and 100 kV). A satisfactory convergence between the results simulated with the optimized model and the experimental measurements is obtained.

  16. Flexible Environmental Modeling with Python and Open - GIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pryet, Alexandre; Atteia, Olivier; Delottier, Hugo; Cousquer, Yohann

    2015-04-01

    Numerical modeling now represents a prominent task of environmental studies. During the last decades, numerous commercial programs have been made available to environmental modelers. These software applications offer user-friendly graphical user interfaces that allow an efficient management of many case studies. However, they suffer from a lack of flexibility and closed-source policies impede source code reviewing and enhancement for original studies. Advanced modeling studies require flexible tools capable of managing thousands of model runs for parameter optimization, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. In addition, there is a growing need for the coupling of various numerical models associating, for instance, groundwater flow modeling to multi-species geochemical reactions. Researchers have produced hundreds of open-source powerful command line programs. However, there is a need for a flexible graphical user interface allowing an efficient processing of geospatial data that comes along any environmental study. Here, we present the advantages of using the free and open-source Qgis platform and the Python scripting language for conducting environmental modeling studies. The interactive graphical user interface is first used for the visualization and pre-processing of input geospatial datasets. Python scripting language is then employed for further input data processing, call to one or several models, and post-processing of model outputs. Model results are eventually sent back to the GIS program, processed and visualized. This approach combines the advantages of interactive graphical interfaces and the flexibility of Python scripting language for data processing and model calls. The numerous python modules available facilitate geospatial data processing and numerical analysis of model outputs. Once input data has been prepared with the graphical user interface, models may be run thousands of times from the command line with sequential or parallel calls. We

  17. Environmental sub models for a macroeconomic model: agricultural contribution to climate change and acidification in Denmark.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Trine S; Jensen, Jørgen D; Hasler, Berit; Illerup, Jytte B; Andersen, Frits M

    2007-01-01

    Integrated modelling of the interaction between environmental pressure and economic development is a useful tool to evaluate environmental consequences of policy initiatives. However, the usefulness of such models is often restricted by the fact that these models only include a limited set of environmental impacts, which are often energy-related emissions. In order to evaluate the development in the overall environmental pressure correctly, these model systems must be extended. In this article an integrated macroeconomic model system of the Danish economy with environmental modules of energy related emissions is extended to include the agricultural contribution to climate change and acidification. Next to the energy sector, the agricultural sector is the most important contributor to these environmental themes and subsequently the extended model complex calculates more than 99% of the contribution to both climate change and acidification. Environmental sub-models are developed for agriculture-related emissions of CH(4), N(2)O and NH(3). Agricultural emission sources related to the production specific activity variables are mapped and emission dependent parameters are identified in order to calculate emission coefficients. The emission coefficients are linked to the economic activity variables of the Danish agricultural production. The model system is demonstrated by projections of agriculture-related emissions in Denmark under two alternative sets of assumptions: a baseline projection of the general economic development and a policy scenario for changes in the husbandry sector within the agricultural sector.

  18. Environmental concentrations of engineered nanomaterials: Review of modeling and analytical studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gottschalk, Fadri; Sun, TianYin; Nowack, Bernd

    2013-01-01

    Scientific consensus predicts that the worldwide use of engineered nanomaterials (ENM) leads to their release into the environment. We reviewed the available literature concerning environmental concentrations of six ENMs (TiO 2 , ZnO, Ag, fullerenes, CNT and CeO 2 ) in surface waters, wastewater treatment plant effluents, biosolids, sediments, soils and air. Presently, a dozen modeling studies provide environmental concentrations for ENM and a handful of analytical works can be used as basis for a preliminary validation. There are still major knowledge gaps (e.g. on ENM production, application and release) that affect the modeled values, but over all an agreement on the order of magnitude of the environmental concentrations can be reached. True validation of the modeled values is difficult because trace analytical methods that are specific for ENM detection and quantification are not available. The modeled and measured results are not always comparable due to the different forms and sizes of particles that these two approaches target. -- Highlights: •Modeled environmental concentrations of engineered nanomaterials are reviewed. •Measured environmental concentrations of engineered nanomaterials are reviewed. •Possible validation of modeled data by measurements is critically evaluated. •Different approaches in modeling and measurement methods complicate validation. -- Modeled and measured environmental concentrations of engineered nanomaterials are reviewed and critically discussed

  19. Smartphone-Based Hearing Screening in Noisy Environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Youngmin Na

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available It is important and recommended to detect hearing loss as soon as possible. If it is found early, proper treatment may help improve hearing and reduce the negative consequences of hearing loss. In this study, we developed smartphone-based hearing screening methods that can ubiquitously test hearing. However, environmental noise generally results in the loss of ear sensitivity, which causes a hearing threshold shift (HTS. To overcome this limitation in the hearing screening location, we developed a correction algorithm to reduce the HTS effect. A built-in microphone and headphone were calibrated to provide the standard units of measure. The HTSs in the presence of either white or babble noise were systematically investigated to determine the mean HTS as a function of noise level. When the hearing screening application runs, the smartphone automatically measures the environmental noise and provides the HTS value to correct the hearing threshold. A comparison to pure tone audiometry shows that this hearing screening method in the presence of noise could closely estimate the hearing threshold. We expect that the proposed ubiquitous hearing test method could be used as a simple hearing screening tool and could alert the user if they suffer from hearing loss.

  20. LOUISIANA ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING SYSTEM FOR HYPOXIA RELATED ISSUES

    Science.gov (United States)

    An environmental assessment tool to evaluate the impacts of nonpoint source (NPS) pollutants discharged from Mississippi River basins into the Gulf of Mexico and to assess their effects on receiving water quality will be described. This system (Louisiana Environmental Modeling S...

  1. Risk modeling and screening for BRCA1 mutations among Filipino breast cancer patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nato, Alejandro Q. Jr.

    2003-03-01

    Breast cancer susceptibility gene, type 1(BRCA1) has been thought to be responsible for ∼45% of families with multiple breast carcinomas and for ∼80% of breast and ovarian cancer families. In this study, we investigated 34 familial Filipino breast cancer (BC) patients to: (a) estimate breast cancer risks and BRCA1/2 mutation carrier probabilities using risk assessment and prior probability models, respectively; (b) screen for putative polymorphisms at selected smaller exons of BRCA1 by single-strand conformation polymorphism (SSCP) analysis; (c) screen for truncated mutations at BRCA1 exon 11 by radioactive protein truncation test (PTT); and (d) estimate posterior probabilities upon incorporation of screening results. SSCP analysis revealed 8 unique putative polymorphisms. Low prevalence of unique putative polymorphisms at exon 2, 5, 17, and 22 may indicate probable mutations. Contrastingly, high prevalence of unique putative polymorphisms at exons 13, 15, and 16 may suggest true polymorphisms which are biologically insignificant. PTT, DHPLC, and sequence analyses revealed a novel mutation in exon 11 involving GT insertion that resulted to a stop codon which generated a 29.7 kDa truncated protein product. This is the second documented mutation in BRCA1 exon 11 in a Filipino BC patient since 1998. Initial genotype-phenotype correlations in Filipino BC patients may be elucidated based on screening tests performed. Our results corroborate the findings of a study on unselected incident Filipino BC cases where the reported prevalence of BRCA1 mutation is low. The higher prevalence of putative polypmorphisms may be attributed to the increased stringency in patient prospecting. The Gail, Claus, and BRCAPRO models can be utilized to estimate BC risk in unaffected high-risk individuals but validation is needed. Most of the BRCAPRO and Myriad.com prior probability estimates coincide with the presence of BRCA1 mutation and/or putative polymorphisms. This pioneering

  2. Risk modeling and screening for BRCA1 mutations among Filipino breast cancer patients

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nato, Jr, Alejandro Q

    2003-03-01

    Breast cancer susceptibility gene, type 1(BRCA1) has been thought to be responsible for {approx}45% of families with multiple breast carcinomas and for {approx}80% of breast and ovarian cancer families. In this study, we investigated 34 familial Filipino breast cancer (BC) patients to: (a) estimate breast cancer risks and BRCA1/2 mutation carrier probabilities using risk assessment and prior probability models, respectively; (b) screen for putative polymorphisms at selected smaller exons of BRCA1 by single-strand conformation polymorphism (SSCP) analysis; (c) screen for truncated mutations at BRCA1 exon 11 by radioactive protein truncation test (PTT); and (d) estimate posterior probabilities upon incorporation of screening results. SSCP analysis revealed 8 unique putative polymorphisms. Low prevalence of unique putative polymorphisms at exon 2, 5, 17, and 22 may indicate probable mutations. Contrastingly, high prevalence of unique putative polymorphisms at exons 13, 15, and 16 may suggest true polymorphisms which are biologically insignificant. PTT, DHPLC, and sequence analyses revealed a novel mutation in exon 11 involving GT insertion that resulted to a stop codon which generated a 29.7 kDa truncated protein product. This is the second documented mutation in BRCA1 exon 11 in a Filipino BC patient since 1998. Initial genotype-phenotype correlations in Filipino BC patients may be elucidated based on screening tests performed. Our results corroborate the findings of a study on unselected incident Filipino BC cases where the reported prevalence of BRCA1 mutation is low. The higher prevalence of putative polypmorphisms may be attributed to the increased stringency in patient prospecting. The Gail, Claus, and BRCAPRO models can be utilized to estimate BC risk in unaffected high-risk individuals but validation is needed. Most of the BRCAPRO and Myriad.com prior probability estimates coincide with the presence of BRCA1 mutation and/or putative polymorphisms. This

  3. An Analysis of Mass Screening Strategies Using a Mathematical Model: Comparison of Breast Cancer Screening in Japan and the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsunematsu, Miwako; Kakehashi, Masayuki

    2015-01-01

    Background Although the United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) downgraded their recommendation for breast cancer screening for women aged 40–49 years in 2009, Japanese women in their 40s have been encouraged to attend breast cancer screenings since 2004. The aim of this study is to examine whether these different mass-screening strategies are justifiable by the different situations of these countries and to provide evidence for suitable judgment. Methods Performance of screening strategies (annual/biennial intervals; initiating/terminating ages) was evaluated using a mathematical model based on the natural history of breast cancer and the transition between its stages. Benefits (reduced number of deaths and extended average life expectancy) and harm (false-positives) associated with these strategies were calculated. Results Additional average life expectancy by including women in their 40s as participants were 13 days (26%) and 25 days (22%) in Japan and the United States, respectively, under the biennial screening condition; however, the respective increases in numbers of false-positive cases were 65% and 53% in Japan and the United States. Moreover, the number of screenings needed to detect one diagnosis or to avert one death was smaller when participants were limited to women of age 50 or over than when women in their 40s were included. The validity of including women in their 40s in Japan could not be determined without specifying the weight of harms compared to benefits. Conclusions Whether screening of women in their 40s in Japan is justifiable must be carefully determined based the quantitative balance of benefits and harms. PMID:25483105

  4. Innovative Research on Teaching Model of Environmental Law Courses in China

    OpenAIRE

    Yuling Li

    2013-01-01

    At present, the teaching model of environmental law courses in China is mainly lecture-based learning (LBL) teaching model whose disadvantages are closeness, unidirection and weak teaching practice. This model does not fit in with the characteristics of environmental law courses and the objective changes of ecological civilized society for the demand of talents of environmental law. Therefore, we should actively reform the current single teaching model, learn from foreign advanced teaching co...

  5. National Environmental Policy Act guidance: A model process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Angle, B.M.; Lockhart, V.A.T.; Sema, B.; Tuott, L.C.; Irving, J.S.

    1995-04-01

    The ''Model National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Process'' includes: References to regulations, guidance documents, and plans; training programs; procedures; and computer databases. Legislative Acts and reference documents from Congress, US Department of Energy, and Lockheed Idaho Technologies Company provide the bases for conducting NEPA at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL). Lockheed Idaho Technologies Company (LITCO) NEPA / Permitting Department, the Contractor Environmental Organization (CEO) is responsible for developing and maintaining LITCO NEPA and permitting policies, guidance, and procedures. The CEO develops procedures to conduct environmental evaluations based on NEPA, Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) regulations, and DOE guidance. This procedure includes preparation or support of environmental checklists, categorical exclusion determinations, environmental assessment determinations, environmental assessments, and environmental impact statements. In addition, the CEO uses this information to train personnel conducting environmental evaluations at the INEL. Streamlining these procedures fosters efficient use of resources, quality documents, and better decisions on proposed actions

  6. Modeling adaptive and non-adaptive responses to environmental change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Coulson, Tim; Kendall, Bruce E; Barthold, Julia A.

    2017-01-01

    , with plastic responses being either adaptive or non-adaptive. We develop an approach that links quantitative genetic theory with data-driven structured models to allow prediction of population responses to environmental change via plasticity and adaptive evolution. After introducing general new theory, we...... construct a number of example models to demonstrate that evolutionary responses to environmental change over the short-term will be considerably slower than plastic responses, and that the rate of adaptive evolution to a new environment depends upon whether plastic responses are adaptive or non-adaptive....... Parameterization of the models we develop requires information on genetic and phenotypic variation and demography that will not always be available, meaning that simpler models will often be required to predict responses to environmental change. We consequently develop a method to examine whether the full...

  7. THE HYDROCARBON SPILL SCREENING MODEL (HSSM), VOLUME 2: THEORETICAL BACKGROUND AND SOURCE CODES

    Science.gov (United States)

    A screening model for subsurface release of a nonaqueous phase liquid which is less dense than water (LNAPL) is presented. The model conceptualizes the release as consisting of 1) vertical transport from near the surface to the capillary fringe, 2) radial spreading of an LNAPL l...

  8. Uncertainty analysis of environmental models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monte, L.

    1990-01-01

    In the present paper an evaluation of the output uncertainty of an environmental model for assessing the transfer of 137 Cs and 131 I in the human food chain are carried out on the basis of a statistical analysis of data reported by the literature. The uncertainty analysis offers the oppotunity of obtaining some remarkable information about the uncertainty of models predicting the migration of non radioactive substances in the environment mainly in relation to the dry and wet deposition

  9. Modeling the Environmental Impact of Air Traffic Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Neil

    2011-01-01

    There is increased interest to understand and mitigate the impacts of air traffic on the climate, since greenhouse gases, nitrogen oxides, and contrails generated by air traffic can have adverse impacts on the climate. The models described in this presentation are useful for quantifying these impacts and for studying alternative environmentally aware operational concepts. These models have been developed by leveraging and building upon existing simulation and optimization techniques developed for the design of efficient traffic flow management strategies. Specific enhancements to the existing simulation and optimization techniques include new models that simulate aircraft fuel flow, emissions and contrails. To ensure that these new models are beneficial to the larger climate research community, the outputs of these new models are compatible with existing global climate modeling tools like the FAA's Aviation Environmental Design Tool.

  10. Monitoring And Modeling Environmental Water Quality To Support Environmental Water Purchase Decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Null, S. E.; Elmore, L.; Mouzon, N. R.; Wood, J. R.

    2016-12-01

    More than 25 million cubic meters (20,000 acre feet) of water has been purchased from willing agricultural sellers for environmental flows in Nevada's Walker River to improve riverine habitat and connectivity with downstream Walker Lake. Reduced instream flows limit native fish populations, like Lahontan cutthroat trout, through warm daily stream temperatures and low dissolved oxygen concentrations. Environmental water purchases maintain instream flows, although effects on water quality are more varied. We use multi-year water quality monitoring and physically-based hydrodynamic and water quality modeling to estimate streamflow, water temperature, and dissolved oxygen concentrations with alternative environmental water purchases. We simulate water temperature and dissolved oxygen changes from increased streamflow to prioritize the time periods and locations that environmental water purchases most enhance trout habitat as a function of water quality. Monitoring results indicate stream temperature and dissolved oxygen limitations generally exist in the 115 kilometers upstream of Walker Lake (about 37% of the study area) from approximately May through September, and this reach acts as a water quality barrier for fish passage. Model results indicate that low streamflows generally coincide with critically warm stream temperatures, water quality refugia exist on a tributary of the Walker River, and environmental water purchases may improve stream temperature and dissolved oxygen conditions for some reaches and seasons, especially in dry years and prolonged droughts. This research supports environmental water purchase decision-making and allows water purchase decisions to be prioritized with other river restoration alternatives.

  11. Model of environmental management system for environmentally sustainable universities training in Colombia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rivas Marin, Maria Isabel

    2011-01-01

    Sustainable campuses have become one of the main objectives of the Agendas University as a result of the impacts generated by the activities developed there and affect the environment. Given this, there are environmental management systems which are the set of practices, procedures, processes and resources needed to meet environmental regulations on business and are focused on reducing the impacts on the environment and the efficiency of processes. College- level companies still being considered, these systems do not work efficiently, it is necessary and urgent that the adequacy of a model environmental management system and that, through education and research, will help society to achieve the transition to sustainable lifestyles.

  12. A joint model of persistent human papillomavirus infection and cervical cancer risk: Implications for cervical cancer screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katki, Hormuzd A; Cheung, Li C; Fetterman, Barbara; Castle, Philip E; Sundaram, Rajeshwari

    2015-10-01

    New cervical cancer screening guidelines in the US and many European countries recommend that women get tested for human papillomavirus (HPV). To inform decisions about screening intervals, we calculate the increase in precancer/cancer risk per year of continued HPV infection. However, both time to onset of precancer/cancer and time to HPV clearance are interval-censored, and onset of precancer/cancer strongly informatively censors HPV clearance. We analyze this bivariate informatively interval-censored data by developing a novel joint model for time to clearance of HPV and time to precancer/cancer using shared random-effects, where the estimated mean duration of each woman's HPV infection is a covariate in the submodel for time to precancer/cancer. The model was fit to data on 9,553 HPV-positive/Pap-negative women undergoing cervical cancer screening at Kaiser Permanente Northern California, data that were pivotal to the development of US screening guidelines. We compare the implications for screening intervals of this joint model to those from population-average marginal models of precancer/cancer risk. In particular, after 2 years the marginal population-average precancer/cancer risk was 5%, suggesting a 2-year interval to control population-average risk at 5%. In contrast, the joint model reveals that almost all women exceeding 5% individual risk in 2 years also exceeded 5% in 1 year, suggesting that a 1-year interval is better to control individual risk at 5%. The example suggests that sophisticated risk models capable of predicting individual risk may have different implications than population-average risk models that are currently used for informing medical guideline development.

  13. Innovative mathematical modeling in environmental remediation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yeh, Gour T. [Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute (Taiwan); National Central Univ. (Taiwan); Univ. of Central Florida (United States); Gwo, Jin Ping [Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), Rockville, MD (United States); Siegel, Malcolm D. [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Li, Ming-Hsu [National Central Univ. (Taiwan); ; Fang, Yilin [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhang, Fan [Inst. of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (China); Luo, Wensui [Inst. of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (China); Yabusaki, Steven B. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2013-05-01

    There are two different ways to model reactive transport: ad hoc and innovative reaction-based approaches. The former, such as the Kd simplification of adsorption, has been widely employed by practitioners, while the latter has been mainly used in scientific communities for elucidating mechanisms of biogeochemical transport processes. It is believed that innovative mechanistic-based models could serve as protocols for environmental remediation as well. This paper reviews the development of a mechanistically coupled fluid flow, thermal transport, hydrologic transport, and reactive biogeochemical model and example-applications to environmental remediation problems. Theoretical bases are sufficiently described. Four example problems previously carried out are used to demonstrate how numerical experimentation can be used to evaluate the feasibility of different remediation approaches. The first one involved the application of a 56-species uranium tailing problem to the Melton Branch Subwatershed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) using the parallel version of the model. Simulations were made to demonstrate the potential mobilization of uranium and other chelating agents in the proposed waste disposal site. The second problem simulated laboratory-scale system to investigate the role of natural attenuation in potential off-site migration of uranium from uranium mill tailings after restoration. It showed inadequacy of using a single Kd even for a homogeneous medium. The third example simulated laboratory experiments involving extremely high concentrations of uranium, technetium, aluminum, nitrate, and toxic metals (e.g.,Ni, Cr, Co).The fourth example modeled microbially-mediated immobilization of uranium in an unconfined aquifer using acetate amendment in a field-scale experiment. The purposes of these modeling studies were to simulate various mechanisms of mobilization and immobilization of radioactive wastes and to illustrate how to apply reactive transport models

  14. Innovative mathematical modeling in environmental remediation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yeh, Gour T.; Gwo, Jin Ping; Siegel, Malcolm D.; Li, Ming-Hsu; Fang, Yilin; Zhang, Fan; Luo, Wensui; Yabusaki, Steven B.

    2013-01-01

    There are two different ways to model reactive transport: ad hoc and innovative reaction-based approaches. The former, such as the Kd simplification of adsorption, has been widely employed by practitioners, while the latter has been mainly used in scientific communities for elucidating mechanisms of biogeochemical transport processes. It is believed that innovative mechanistic-based models could serve as protocols for environmental remediation as well. This paper reviews the development of a mechanistically coupled fluid flow, thermal transport, hydrologic transport, and reactive biogeochemical model and example-applications to environmental remediation problems. Theoretical bases are sufficiently described. Four example problems previously carried out are used to demonstrate how numerical experimentation can be used to evaluate the feasibility of different remediation approaches. The first one involved the application of a 56-species uranium tailing problem to the Melton Branch Subwatershed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) using the parallel version of the model. Simulations were made to demonstrate the potential mobilization of uranium and other chelating agents in the proposed waste disposal site. The second problem simulated laboratory-scale system to investigate the role of natural attenuation in potential off-site migration of uranium from uranium mill tailings after restoration. It showed inadequacy of using a single Kd even for a homogeneous medium. The third example simulated laboratory experiments involving extremely high concentrations of uranium, technetium, aluminum, nitrate, and toxic metals (e.g.,Ni, Cr, Co). The fourth example modeled microbially-mediated immobilization of uranium in an unconfined aquifer using acetate amendment in a field-scale experiment. The purposes of these modeling studies were to simulate various mechanisms of mobilization and immobilization of radioactive wastes and to illustrate how to apply reactive transport models

  15. Cumulative Risk and Impact Modeling on Environmental Chemical and Social Stressors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Hongtai; Wang, Aolin; Morello-Frosch, Rachel; Lam, Juleen; Sirota, Marina; Padula, Amy; Woodruff, Tracey J

    2018-03-01

    The goal of this review is to identify cumulative modeling methods used to evaluate combined effects of exposures to environmental chemicals and social stressors. The specific review question is: What are the existing quantitative methods used to examine the cumulative impacts of exposures to environmental chemical and social stressors on health? There has been an increase in literature that evaluates combined effects of exposures to environmental chemicals and social stressors on health using regression models; very few studies applied other data mining and machine learning techniques to this problem. The majority of studies we identified used regression models to evaluate combined effects of multiple environmental and social stressors. With proper study design and appropriate modeling assumptions, additional data mining methods may be useful to examine combined effects of environmental and social stressors.

  16. High-throughput migration modelling for estimating exposure to chemicals in food packaging in screening and prioritization tools

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ernstoff, Alexi S; Fantke, Peter; Huang, Lei

    2017-01-01

    Specialty software and simplified models are often used to estimate migration of potentially toxic chemicals from packaging into food. Current models, however, are not suitable for emerging applications in decision-support tools, e.g. in Life Cycle Assessment and risk-based screening and prioriti...... to uncertainty and dramatically decreased model performance (R2 = 0.4, Se = 1). In all, this study provides a rapid migration modelling approach to estimate exposure to chemicals in food packaging for emerging screening and prioritization approaches....

  17. Simple model for taking into account the effects of plasma screening in thermonuclear reactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shalybkov, D.A.; Yakovlev, D.G.

    1988-01-01

    In the Thomas-Fermi model of high-density matter analytic calculation is made of the factor by which the rate of the thermonuclear reactions is enhanced by the effects of plasma screening in a degenerate weakly non-ideal electron gas and a strongly nonideal two-component ion liquid with large charge of the ions. The regions of densities and temperatures in which screening due to compressibility of the electron gas plays an important part are found. It is noted that the screening due to this compressibility may be influenced by strong magnetic fields B /approximately/ 10 12 -10 13 G, which quantize the motion of the electrons and change the electron charge screening length in the plasma. The results can be used for the degenerate cores of white dwarfs and shells of neutron stars

  18. A model of the environmental impacts of hydropower projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kemppainen, T.; Haemaelaeinen, I.

    1992-01-01

    The aim was to create a model of the effects of hydropower modernization and extension projects in Finland. To illustrate the effects of hydropower projects a checklist in the form of matrice was constructed. In this matrice all issues that could be significant in future hydropower projects were collected. Stable physical environmental changes are the starting-point for this matrice. The temporary change of hydropower constructions have also been under consideration. These are mainly environmental changes during construction. In chapter two the effects of hydropower modernization and extension projects physical environmental changes were examined. In chapter three the matrice was applied to some example cases. The cases were chosen to represent future hydropower projects. In addition these example cases represent urban areas, rural areas and uninhabited areas. The example cases were the extension of Tainionkoski hydropower plant at Vuoksi river, the modernization of Aeetsae power plant at Kokemaeenjoki river, the modernization of Stadsfors power plant at Lapuanjoki river in the centre of Uusikaarlepyy town and the construction of Kaitfors power plant at Perhonjoki river. Conclusions from usability of the model can be drawn on the ground of the example cases. The purpose of the model is to produce a checklist of estimated environmental effects in hydropower project of various kinds. Examination of issues within the model depends on local circumstances. Endangered animal and plant species, for example, can be studied and estimated only if endangered animal and plant species exist in the area of hydropower plant. Furthermore, the direction and extent of environmental effects depend on the local circumstances. The model is mainly a checklist of environmental effects caused by hydropower plant projects

  19. Radiation-Induced Breast Cancer Incidence and Mortality From Digital Mammography Screening: A Modeling Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miglioretti, Diana L; Lange, Jane; van den Broek, Jeroen J; Lee, Christoph I; van Ravesteyn, Nicolien T; Ritley, Dominique; Kerlikowske, Karla; Fenton, Joshua J; Melnikow, Joy; de Koning, Harry J; Hubbard, Rebecca A

    2016-02-16

    Estimates of risk for radiation-induced breast cancer from mammography screening have not considered variation in dose exposure or diagnostic work-up after abnormal screening results. To estimate distributions of radiation-induced breast cancer incidence and mortality from digital mammography screening while considering exposure from screening and diagnostic mammography and dose variation among women. 2 simulation-modeling approaches. U.S. population. Women aged 40 to 74 years. Annual or biennial digital mammography screening from age 40, 45, or 50 years until age 74 years. Lifetime breast cancer deaths averted (benefits) and radiation-induced breast cancer incidence and mortality (harms) per 100,000 women screened. Annual screening of 100,000 women aged 40 to 74 years was projected to induce 125 breast cancer cases (95% CI, 88 to 178) leading to 16 deaths (CI, 11 to 23), relative to 968 breast cancer deaths averted by early detection from screening. Women exposed at the 95th percentile were projected to develop 246 cases of radiation-induced breast cancer leading to 32 deaths per 100,000 women. Women with large breasts requiring extra views for complete examination (8% of population) were projected to have greater radiation-induced breast cancer risk (266 cancer cases and 35 deaths per 100,000 women) than other women (113 cancer cases and 15 deaths per 100,000 women). Biennial screening starting at age 50 years reduced risk for radiation-induced cancer 5-fold. Life-years lost from radiation-induced breast cancer could not be estimated. Radiation-induced breast cancer incidence and mortality from digital mammography screening are affected by dose variability from screening, resultant diagnostic work-up, initiation age, and screening frequency. Women with large breasts may have a greater risk for radiation-induced breast cancer. Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, U.S. Preventive Services Task Force, National Cancer Institute.

  20. Methodological considerations for economic modelling of latent tuberculous infection screening in migrants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shedrawy, J; Siroka, A; Oxlade, O; Matteelli, A; Lönnroth, K

    2017-09-01

    Tuberculosis (TB) in migrants from endemic to low-incidence countries results mainly from the reactivation of latent tuberculous infection (LTBI). LTBI screening policies for migrants vary greatly between countries, and the evidence on the cost-effectiveness of the different approaches is weak and heterogeneous. The aim of this review was to assess the methodology used in published economic evaluations of LTBI screening among migrants to identify critical methodological options that must be considered when using modelling to determine value for money from different economic perspectives. Three electronic databases were searched and 10 articles were included. There was considerable variation across this small number of studies with regard to economic perspective, main outcomes, modelling technique, screening options and target populations considered, as well as in parameterisation of the epidemiological situation, test accuracy, efficacy, safety and programme performance. Only one study adopted a societal perspective; others adopted a health care or wider government perspective. Parameters representing the cascade of screening and treating LTBI varied widely, with some studies using highly aspirational scenarios. This review emphasises the need for a more harmonised approach for economic analysis, and better transparency in how policy options and economic perspectives influence methodological choices. Variability is justifiable for some parameters. However, sufficient data are available to standardise others. A societal perspective is ideal, but can be challenging due to limited data. Assumptions about programme performance should be based on empirical data or at least realistic assumptions. Results should be interpreted within specific contexts and policy options, with cautious generalisations.

  1. Identification and Prioritization of Analysis Cases for Marine and Hydrokinetic Energy Risk Screening

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Richard M.; Unwin, Stephen D.; Van Cleve, Frances B.

    2010-06-16

    In this report we describe the development of the Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES), a risk-informed analytical process for estimating the environmental risks associated with the construction and operation of marine and hydrokinetic energy generation projects. The development process consists of two main phases of analysis. In the first phase, preliminary risk analyses will take the form of screening studies in which key environmental impacts and the uncertainties that create risk are identified, leading to a better-focused characterization of the relevant environmental effects. Existence of critical data gaps will suggest areas in which specific modeling and/or data collection activities should take place. In the second phase, more detailed quantitative risk analyses will be conducted, with residual uncertainties providing the basis for recommending risk mitigation and monitoring activities. We also describe the process used for selecting three cases for fiscal year 2010 risk screening analysis using the ERES. A case is defined as a specific technology deployed in a particular location involving certain environmental receptors specific to that location. The three cases selected satisfy a number of desirable criteria: 1) they correspond to real projects whose deployment is likely to take place in the foreseeable future; 2) the technology developers are willing to share technology and project-related data; 3) the projects represent a diversity of technology-site-receptor characteristics; 4) the projects are of national interest, and 5) environmental effects data may be available for the projects.

  2. Northeastern Regional environmental characterization report. Volume 1. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-08-01

    This report presents available environmental information pertinent to siting a repository for high-level nuclear waste in crystalline rock in Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, northeastern and southeastern New York, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, northern New Jersey, and eastern Pennsylvania. For each of the States within the Northeastern Region, information is provided on those environmental disqualifying factors and regional screening variables to be used in region-to-area screening. These environmental factors and variables include existing and proposed Federal-protected lands, components of National Forest Lands, proximity to Federal-protected lands, existing State-protected lands, proximity to State-protected lands, population density and distribution, proximity to highly populated areas, or to 1-mile-square areas with 1000 or more persons, National and State forest lands, designated critical habitats for threatened and endangered species, surface water bodies, and wetlands. In addition, supplementary descriptive information providing a general characterization of the region is presented, as is information on environmental parameters that will be of use at later phases of screening. Also included is a discussion of the relationship between the US Department of Energy Siting Guidelines (10 CFR 960) and those environmental disqualifying factors and regional screening variables to be used in the region-to-area screening process

  3. Working Group 1: Software System Design and Implementation for Environmental Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    ISCMEM Working Group One Presentation, presentation with the purpose of fostering the exchange of information about environmental modeling tools, modeling frameworks, and environmental monitoring databases.

  4. A Survey of Precipitation Data for Environmental Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    This report explores the types of precipitation data available for environmental modeling. Precipitation is the main driver in the hydrological cycle and modelers use this information to understand water quality and water availability. Models use observed precipitation informatio...

  5. METHOD FOR NUMERICAL MODELING OF UNSTEADY SEPARATED FLOW AROUND AIRFOILS MOVING CLOSE TO FLAT SCREEN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Pogrebnaya Tamara

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this article an attempt is made to explain the nature of differences in measurements of forces and moments, which influence an aircraft at take-off and landing when testing on different types of stands. An algorithm for numerical simulation of unsteady separated flow around airfoil is given. The algorithm is based on the combination of discrete vortex method and turbulent boundary layer equations. An unsteady flow separation modeling has been used. At each interval vortex method was used to calculate the potential flow around airfoils located near a screen. Calculated pressures and velocities were then used in boundary layer calculations to determine flow separation points and separated vortex in- tensities. After that calculation were made to determine free vortex positions to next time step and the process was fulfilled for next time step. The proposed algorithm allows using numeric visualization to understand physical picture of flow around airfoil moving close to screen. Three different ways of flow modeling (mirror method, fixed or movable screens were tested. In each case the flow separation process, which determines pressure distribution over airfoil surface and influ- ences aerodynamic performance, was viewed. The results of the calculations showed that at low atitudes of airfoil over screen mirror method over predicts lift force compared with movable screen, while fixed screen under predicts it. The data obtained can be used when designing equipment for testing in wind tunnels.

  6. Which risk models perform best in selecting ever-smokers for lung cancer screening?

    Science.gov (United States)

    A new analysis by scientists at NCI evaluates nine different individualized lung cancer risk prediction models based on their selections of ever-smokers for computed tomography (CT) lung cancer screening.

  7. Frontier models for evaluating environmental efficiency: an overview

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Wall, A.

    2014-01-01

    Our aim in this paper is to provide a succinct overview of frontier-based models used to evaluate environmental efficiency, with a special emphasis on agricultural activity. We begin by providing a brief, up-to-date review of the main approaches used to measure environmental efficiency, with

  8. North Central Regional environmental characterization report. Volume 1. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-08-01

    This report presents available environmental information pertinent to siting a repository for high-level nuclear waste in crystalline rock in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. For each of the states within the North Central Region, information is provided on those environmental disqualifying factors and regional screening variables to be used in region-to-area screening. These environmental factors and variables include existing and proposed Federal-protected lands, proximity to Federal-protected lands, components of national forest lands, existing state-protected lands, proximity to state-protected lands, population density and distribution, proximity to highly populated areas or to 1-mile square areas with 1000 or more persons, national and state forest lands, designated critical habitats for threatened and endangered spcies, surface water bodies, and wetlands. In addition, supplementary descriptive information providing a general characterization of the region is presented, as is information on environmental parameters that will be of use at later phases of screening. Also included is a discussion of the relationship between the US Department of Energy Siting Guidelines (10CFR 960) and those environmental disqualifying factors and regional screening variables to be used in the region-to-area screening process

  9. Modelling consumers' preferences for Novel Protein Foods and environmental quality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhu, X.; Ierland, van E.C.

    2005-01-01

    We develop a theoretical Applied General Equilibrium (AGE) model that explicitly includes the environmental input in production functions and the consumers' preferences for environmental quality in utility functions. We empirically apply the model to provide some insights into the effects of the

  10. An objective decision model of power grid environmental protection based on environmental influence index and energy-saving and emission-reducing index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Jun-shu; Jin, Yan-ming; Hao, Wei-hua

    2017-01-01

    Based on modelling the environmental influence index of power transmission and transformation project and energy-saving and emission-reducing index of source-grid-load of power system, this paper establishes an objective decision model of power grid environmental protection, with constraints of power grid environmental protection objectives being legal and economical, and considering both positive and negative influences of grid on the environmental in all-life grid cycle. This model can be used to guide the programming work of power grid environmental protection. A numerical simulation of Jiangsu province’s power grid environmental protection objective decision model has been operated, and the results shows that the maximum goal of energy-saving and emission-reducing benefits would be reached firstly as investment increasing, and then the minimum goal of environmental influence.

  11. Human iPSC-derived cardiomyocytes and tissue engineering strategies for disease modeling and drug screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Alec S T; Macadangdang, Jesse; Leung, Winnie; Laflamme, Michael A; Kim, Deok-Ho

    Improved methodologies for modeling cardiac disease phenotypes and accurately screening the efficacy and toxicity of potential therapeutic compounds are actively being sought to advance drug development and improve disease modeling capabilities. To that end, much recent effort has been devoted to the development of novel engineered biomimetic cardiac tissue platforms that accurately recapitulate the structure and function of the human myocardium. Within the field of cardiac engineering, induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs) are an exciting tool that offer the potential to advance the current state of the art, as they are derived from somatic cells, enabling the development of personalized medical strategies and patient specific disease models. Here we review different aspects of iPSC-based cardiac engineering technologies. We highlight methods for producing iPSC-derived cardiomyocytes (iPSC-CMs) and discuss their application to compound efficacy/toxicity screening and in vitro modeling of prevalent cardiac diseases. Special attention is paid to the application of micro- and nano-engineering techniques for the development of novel iPSC-CM based platforms and their potential to advance current preclinical screening modalities. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  12. Simulation modeling for stratified breast cancer screening - a systematic review of cost and quality of life assumptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, Matthias

    2017-12-02

    The economic evaluation of stratified breast cancer screening gains momentum, but produces also very diverse results. Systematic reviews so far focused on modeling techniques and epidemiologic assumptions. However, cost and utility parameters received only little attention. This systematic review assesses simulation models for stratified breast cancer screening based on their cost and utility parameters in each phase of breast cancer screening and care. A literature review was conducted to compare economic evaluations with simulation models of personalized breast cancer screening. Study quality was assessed using reporting guidelines. Cost and utility inputs were extracted, standardized and structured using a care delivery framework. Studies were then clustered according to their study aim and parameters were compared within the clusters. Eighteen studies were identified within three study clusters. Reporting quality was very diverse in all three clusters. Only two studies in cluster 1, four studies in cluster 2 and one study in cluster 3 scored high in the quality appraisal. In addition to the quality appraisal, this review assessed if the simulation models were consistent in integrating all relevant phases of care, if utility parameters were consistent and methodological sound and if cost were compatible and consistent in the actual parameters used for screening, diagnostic work up and treatment. Of 18 studies, only three studies did not show signs of potential bias. This systematic review shows that a closer look into the cost and utility parameter can help to identify potential bias. Future simulation models should focus on integrating all relevant phases of care, using methodologically sound utility parameters and avoiding inconsistent cost parameters.

  13. Screening for EIA in India: enhancing effectiveness through ecological carrying capacity approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajaram, T; Das, Ashutosh

    2011-01-01

    Developing countries across the world have embraced the policy of high economic growth as a means to reduce poverty. This economic growth largely based on industrial output is fast degrading the ecosystems, jeopardizing their long term sustainability. Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) has long been recognized as a tool which can help in protecting the ecosystems and aid sustainable development. The Screening guidelines for EIA reflect the level of commitment the nation displays towards tightening its environmental protection system. The paper analyses the screening process for EIA in India and dissects the rationale behind the exclusions and thresholds set in the screening process. The screening process in India is compared with that of the European Union with the aim of understanding the extent of deviations from a screening approach in the context of better economic development. It is found that the Indian system excludes many activities from the purview of screening itself when compared to the EU. The constraints responsible for these exclusions are discussed and the shortcomings of the current command and control system of environmental management in India are also explained. It is suggested that an ecosystem carrying capacity based management system can provide significant inputs to enhance the effectiveness of EIA process from screening to monitoring. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Primary care colorectal cancer screening correlates with breast cancer screening: implications for colorectal cancer screening improvement interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, Jennifer M; Pandhi, Nancy; Kraft, Sally; Potvien, Aaron; Carayon, Pascale; Smith, Maureen A

    2018-04-25

    National colorectal cancer (CRC) screening rates have plateaued. To optimize interventions targeting those unscreened, a better understanding is needed of how this preventive service fits in with multiple preventive and chronic care needs managed by primary care providers (PCPs). This study examines whether PCP practices of other preventive and chronic care needs correlate with CRC screening. We performed a retrospective cohort study of 90 PCPs and 33,137 CRC screening-eligible patients. Five PCP quality metrics (breast cancer screening, cervical cancer screening, HgbA1c and LDL testing, and blood pressure control) were measured. A baseline correlation test was performed between these metrics and PCP CRC screening rates. Multivariable logistic regression with clustering at the clinic-level estimated odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for these PCP quality metrics, patient and PCP characteristics, and their relationship to CRC screening. PCP CRC screening rates have a strong correlation with breast cancer screening rates (r = 0.7414, p < 0.001) and a weak correlation with the other quality metrics. In the final adjusted model, the only PCP quality metric that significantly predicted CRC screening was breast cancer screening (OR 1.25; 95% CI 1.11-1.42; p < 0.001). PCP CRC screening rates are highly concordant with breast cancer screening. CRC screening is weakly concordant with cervical cancer screening and chronic disease management metrics. Efforts targeting PCPs to increase CRC screening rates could be bundled with breast cancer screening improvement interventions to increase their impact and success.

  15. EASETECH – A LCA model for assessment of environmental technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Damgaard, Anders; Baumeister, Hubert; Astrup, Thomas Fruergaard

    2014-01-01

    EASETECH is a new model for the environmental assessment of environmental technologies developed in collaboration between DTU Environment and DTU Compute. EASETECH is based on experience gained in the field of waste management modelling over the last decade and applies the same concepts to systems...

  16. Data Sources Available for Modeling Environmental Exposures in Older Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    This report, “Data Sources Available for Modeling Environmental Exposures in Older Adults,” focuses on information sources and data available for modeling environmental exposures in the older U.S. population, defined here to be people 60 years and older, with an emphasis on those...

  17. Socio-Environmental Resilience and Complex Urban Systems Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deal, Brian; Petri, Aaron; Pan, Haozhi; Goldenberg, Romain; Kalantari, Zahra; Cvetkovic, Vladimir

    2017-04-01

    The increasing pressure of climate change has inspired two normative agendas; socio-technical transitions and socio-ecological resilience, both sharing a complex-systems epistemology (Gillard et al. 2016). Socio-technical solutions include a continuous, massive data gathering exercise now underway in urban places under the guise of developing a 'smart'(er) city. This has led to the creation of data-rich environments where large data sets have become central to monitoring and forming a response to anomalies. Some have argued that these kinds of data sets can help in planning for resilient cities (Norberg and Cumming 2008; Batty 2013). In this paper, we focus on a more nuanced, ecologically based, socio-environmental perspective of resilience planning that is often given less consideration. Here, we broadly discuss (and model) the tightly linked, mutually influenced, social and biophysical subsystems that are critical for understanding urban resilience. We argue for the need to incorporate these sub system linkages into the resilience planning lexicon through the integration of systems models and planning support systems. We make our case by first providing a context for urban resilience from a socio-ecological and planning perspective. We highlight the data needs for this type of resilient planning and compare it to currently collected data streams in various smart city efforts. This helps to define an approach for operationalizing socio-environmental resilience planning using robust systems models and planning support systems. For this, we draw from our experiences in coupling a spatio-temporal land use model (the Landuse Evolution and impact Assessment Model (LEAM)) with water quality and quantity models in Stockholm Sweden. We describe the coupling of these systems models using a robust Planning Support System (PSS) structural framework. We use the coupled model simulations and PSS to analyze the connection between urban land use transformation (social) and water

  18. Screening important inputs in models with strong interaction properties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saltelli, Andrea; Campolongo, Francesca; Cariboni, Jessica

    2009-01-01

    We introduce a new method for screening inputs in mathematical or computational models with large numbers of inputs. The method proposed here represents an improvement over the best available practice for this setting when dealing with models having strong interaction effects. When the sample size is sufficiently high the same design can also be used to obtain accurate quantitative estimates of the variance-based sensitivity measures: the same simulations can be used to obtain estimates of the variance-based measures according to the Sobol' and the Jansen formulas. Results demonstrate that Sobol' is more efficient for the computation of the first-order indices, while Jansen performs better for the computation of the total indices.

  19. Screening important inputs in models with strong interaction properties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saltelli, Andrea [European Commission, Joint Research Centre, 21020 Ispra, Varese (Italy); Campolongo, Francesca [European Commission, Joint Research Centre, 21020 Ispra, Varese (Italy)], E-mail: francesca.campolongo@jrc.it; Cariboni, Jessica [European Commission, Joint Research Centre, 21020 Ispra, Varese (Italy)

    2009-07-15

    We introduce a new method for screening inputs in mathematical or computational models with large numbers of inputs. The method proposed here represents an improvement over the best available practice for this setting when dealing with models having strong interaction effects. When the sample size is sufficiently high the same design can also be used to obtain accurate quantitative estimates of the variance-based sensitivity measures: the same simulations can be used to obtain estimates of the variance-based measures according to the Sobol' and the Jansen formulas. Results demonstrate that Sobol' is more efficient for the computation of the first-order indices, while Jansen performs better for the computation of the total indices.

  20. Using the Cascade Model to Improve Antenatal Screening for the Hemoglobin Disorders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gould, Dinah; Papadopoulos, Irena; Kelly, Daniel

    2012-01-01

    Introduction: The inherited hemoglobin disorders constitute a major public health problem. Facilitators (experienced hemoglobin counselors) were trained to deliver knowledge and skills to "frontline" practitioners to enable them to support parents during antenatal screening via a cascade (train-the-trainer) model. Objectives of…

  1. International Summit on Integrated Environmental Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    This report describes the International Summit on Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM), held in Washington, DC 7th-9th December 2010. The meeting brought together 57 scientists and managers from leading US and European government and non-governmental organizations, universitie...

  2. The Tox21 robotic platform for the assessment of environmental chemicals--from vision to reality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attene-Ramos, Matias S; Miller, Nicole; Huang, Ruili; Michael, Sam; Itkin, Misha; Kavlock, Robert J; Austin, Christopher P; Shinn, Paul; Simeonov, Anton; Tice, Raymond R; Xia, Menghang

    2013-08-01

    Since its establishment in 2008, the US Tox21 inter-agency collaboration has made great progress in developing and evaluating cellular models for the evaluation of environmental chemicals as a proof of principle. Currently, the program has entered its production phase (Tox21 Phase II) focusing initially on the areas of modulation of nuclear receptors and stress response pathways. During Tox21 Phase II, the set of chemicals to be tested has been expanded to nearly 10,000 (10K) compounds and a fully automated screening platform has been implemented. The Tox21 robotic system combined with informatics efforts is capable of screening and profiling the collection of 10K environmental chemicals in triplicate in a week. In this article, we describe the Tox21 screening process, compound library preparation, data processing, and robotic system validation. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  3. A motivational model for environmentally responsible behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabernero, Carmen; Hernández, Bernardo

    2012-07-01

    This paper presents a study examining whether self-efficacy and intrinsic motivation are related to environmentally responsible behavior (ERB). The study analysed past environmental behavior, self-regulatory mechanisms (self-efficacy, satisfaction, goals), and intrinsic and extrinsic motivation in relation to ERBs in a sample of 156 university students. Results show that all the motivational variables studied are linked to ERB. The effects of self-efficacy on ERB are mediated by the intrinsic motivation responses of the participants. A theoretical model was created by means of path analysis, revealing the power of motivational variables to predict ERB. Structural equation modeling was used to test and fit the research model. The role of motivational variables is discussed with a view to creating adequate learning contexts and experiences to generate interest and new sensations in which self-efficacy and affective reactions play an important role.

  4. BALANCED SCORECARDS EVALUATION MODEL THAT INCLUDES ELEMENTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT SYSTEM USING AHP MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jelena Jovanović

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available The research is oriented on improvement of environmental management system (EMS using BSC (Balanced Scorecard model that presents strategic model of measurem ents and improvement of organisational performance. The research will present approach of objectives and environmental management me trics involvement (proposed by literature review in conventional BSC in "Ad Barska plovi dba" organisation. Further we will test creation of ECO-BSC model based on business activities of non-profit organisations in order to improve envir onmental management system in parallel with other systems of management. Using this approach we may obtain 4 models of BSC that includ es elements of environmen tal management system for AD "Barska plovidba". Taking into acc ount that implementation and evaluation need long period of time in AD "Barska plovidba", the final choice will be based on 14598 (Information technology - Software product evaluation and ISO 9126 (Software engineering - Product quality using AHP method. Those standards are usually used for evaluation of quality software product and computer programs that serve in organisation as support and factors for development. So, AHP model will be bas ed on evolution criteria based on suggestion of ISO 9126 standards and types of evaluation from two evaluation teams. Members of team & will be experts in BSC and environmental management system that are not em ployed in AD "Barska Plovidba" organisation. The members of team 2 will be managers of AD "Barska Plovidba" organisation (including manage rs from environmental department. Merging results based on previously cr eated two AHP models, one can obtain the most appropriate BSC that includes elements of environmental management system. The chosen model will present at the same time suggestion for approach choice including ecological metrics in conventional BSC model for firm that has at least one ECO strategic orientation.

  5. An outbreak of vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium in an acute care pediatric hospital: Lessons from environmental screening and a case-control study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drews, Steven J; Richardson, Susan E; Wray, Rick; Freeman, Renee; Goldman, Carol; Streitenberger, Laurie; Stevens, Derek; Goia, Cristina; Kovach, Danuta; Brophy, Jason; Matlow, Anne G

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND The present study describes a vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE) outbreak investigation and a case-control study to identify risk factors for VRE acquisition in a tertiary care pediatric hospital. OBJECTIVE To report an outbreak investigation and a case-control study to identify risk factors for VRE colonization or infection in hospitalized children. METHODS Screening for VRE cases was performed by culture or polymerase chain reaction. A case-control study of VRE-colonized patients was undertaken. Environmental screening was performed using standard culture and susceptibility methods, with pulsed-field gel electrophoresis to determine relationships between VRE isolates. Statistical analysis was performed using SAS version 9.0 (SAS Institute Inc, USA). RESULTS Thirty-four VRE-positive cases were identified on 10 wards between February 28, 2005, and May 27, 2005. Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis analysis confirmed a single outbreak strain that was also isolated from a video game found on one affected ward. Multivariate analysis identified cephalosporin use as the major risk factor for VRE colonization. CONCLUSIONS In the present study outbreak, VRE colonization was significantly associated with cephalosporin use. Because shared recreational items and environmental surfaces may be colonized by VRE, they warrant particular attention in housekeeping protocols, particularly in pediatric institutions. PMID:19412380

  6. Which strategies reduce breast cancer mortality most? Collaborative modeling of optimal screening, treatment, and obesity prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandelblatt, Jeanne; van Ravesteyn, Nicolien; Schechter, Clyde; Chang, Yaojen; Huang, An-Tsun; Near, Aimee M; de Koning, Harry; Jemal, Ahmedin

    2013-07-15

    US breast cancer mortality is declining, but thousands of women still die each year. Two established simulation models examine 6 strategies that include increased screening and/or treatment or elimination of obesity versus continuation of current patterns. The models use common national data on incidence and obesity prevalence, competing causes of death, mammography characteristics, treatment effects, and survival/cure. Parameters are modified based on obesity (defined as BMI  ≥  30 kg/m(2) ). Outcomes are presented for the year 2025 among women aged 25+ and include numbers of cases, deaths, mammograms and false-positives; age-adjusted incidence and mortality; breast cancer mortality reduction and deaths averted; and probability of dying of breast cancer. If current patterns continue, the models project that there would be about 50,100-57,400 (range across models) annual breast cancer deaths in 2025. If 90% of women were screened annually from ages 40 to 54 and biennially from ages 55 to 99 (or death), then 5100-6100 fewer deaths would occur versus current patterns, but incidence, mammograms, and false-positives would increase. If all women received the indicated systemic treatment (with no screening change), then 11,400-14,500 more deaths would be averted versus current patterns, but increased toxicity could occur. If 100% received screening plus indicated therapy, there would be 18,100-20,400 fewer deaths. Eliminating obesity yields 3300-5700 fewer breast cancer deaths versus continuation of current obesity levels. Maximal reductions in breast cancer deaths could be achieved through optimizing treatment use, followed by increasing screening use and obesity prevention. © 2013 American Cancer Society.

  7. Model of environmental life cycle assessment for coal mining operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burchart-Korol, Dorota; Fugiel, Agata; Czaplicka-Kolarz, Krystyna; Turek, Marian

    2016-08-15

    This paper presents a novel approach to environmental assessment of coal mining operations, which enables assessment of the factors that are both directly and indirectly affecting the environment and are associated with the production of raw materials and energy used in processes. The primary novelty of the paper is the development of a computational environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) model for coal mining operations and the application of the model for coal mining operations in Poland. The LCA model enables the assessment of environmental indicators for all identified unit processes in hard coal mines with the life cycle approach. The proposed model enables the assessment of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) based on the IPCC method and the assessment of damage categories, such as human health, ecosystems and resources based on the ReCiPe method. The model enables the assessment of GHGs for hard coal mining operations in three time frames: 20, 100 and 500years. The model was used to evaluate the coal mines in Poland. It was demonstrated that the largest environmental impacts in damage categories were associated with the use of fossil fuels, methane emissions and the use of electricity, processing of wastes, heat, and steel supports. It was concluded that an environmental assessment of coal mining operations, apart from direct influence from processing waste, methane emissions and drainage water, should include the use of electricity, heat and steel, particularly for steel supports. Because the model allows the comparison of environmental impact assessment for various unit processes, it can be used for all hard coal mines, not only in Poland but also in the world. This development is an important step forward in the study of the impacts of fossil fuels on the environment with the potential to mitigate the impact of the coal industry on the environment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Determinants of Consumers’ Pro-Environmental Behavior – Toward an Integrated Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Octav-Ionuţ Macovei

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims at constructing a model which will explain consumers’ pro-environmental behavior by analyzing its direct and indirect predictors. To achieve this, variables from wellestablished models and theories were employed, such as Schwartz’s Norm Activation Theory (NAT, Stern’s Value-belief-norms Theory (VBN and Ajzen’s Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB. Important variables like perceived behavioral control, normative beliefs, awareness of the consequences of environmental problems, Compatibility with a pro-environmental behaviour, attitude towards a proenvironmental behavior and intention to behave in a pro-environmental manner are considered to be determinants of consumers’ pro-environmental behavior. All these variables were discussed and assembled in an integrated research model which can be validated through a quantitative survey. Each variable was described at a conceptual and operational level, items and scales being proposed for each one The proposed model will offer to organizations a valuable green marketing tool which can be used in the fight for environment protection. The proposed model is unique can be used as a solid based for future research.

  9. iScreen: Image-Based High-Content RNAi Screening Analysis Tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Rui; Dong, Xiaonan; Levine, Beth; Xie, Yang; Xiao, Guanghua

    2015-09-01

    High-throughput RNA interference (RNAi) screening has opened up a path to investigating functional genomics in a genome-wide pattern. However, such studies are often restricted to assays that have a single readout format. Recently, advanced image technologies have been coupled with high-throughput RNAi screening to develop high-content screening, in which one or more cell image(s), instead of a single readout, were generated from each well. This image-based high-content screening technology has led to genome-wide functional annotation in a wider spectrum of biological research studies, as well as in drug and target discovery, so that complex cellular phenotypes can be measured in a multiparametric format. Despite these advances, data analysis and visualization tools are still largely lacking for these types of experiments. Therefore, we developed iScreen (image-Based High-content RNAi Screening Analysis Tool), an R package for the statistical modeling and visualization of image-based high-content RNAi screening. Two case studies were used to demonstrate the capability and efficiency of the iScreen package. iScreen is available for download on CRAN (http://cran.cnr.berkeley.edu/web/packages/iScreen/index.html). The user manual is also available as a supplementary document. © 2014 Society for Laboratory Automation and Screening.

  10. Modeling Environmental Literacy of Malaysian Pre-University Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shamuganathan, Sheila; Karpudewan, Mageswary

    2015-01-01

    In this study attempt was made to model the environmental literacy of Malaysian pre-university students enrolled in a matriculation college. Students enrolled in the matriculation colleges in Malaysia are the top notch students in the country. Environmental literacy of this group is perceived important because in the future these students will be…

  11. NNWSI environmental characterization prior to the exploratory shaft

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bertram, S.G.; Everett, J.J.

    1982-01-01

    The primary objective of the environmental characterization is to ensure that the site characterization and selection are in compliance with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) and with applicable federal, state and local environmental laws and regulations. This paper describes the overview of the screening area and the Yucca Mountain biological and archaeological field studies. No further environmetal data will be collected for the 970 km 2 screening area because the NNWSI Project has selected the Yucca Mountain location for site characterization

  12. Advanced aviation environmental modeling tools to inform policymakers

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-19

    Aviation environmental models which conform to international guidance have advanced : over the past several decades. Enhancements to algorithms and databases have increasingly : shown these models to compare well with gold standard measured data. The...

  13. Developing models that analyze the economic/environmental trade-offs implicit in water resource management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howitt, R. E.

    2016-12-01

    Hydro-economic models have been used to analyze optimal supply management and groundwater use for the past 25 years. They are characterized by an objective function that usually maximizes economic measures such as consumer and producer surplus subject to hydrologic equations of motion or water distribution systems. The hydrologic and economic components are sometimes fully integrated. Alternatively they may use an iterative interactive process. Environmental considerations have been included in hydro-economic models as inequality constraints. Representing environmental requirements as constraints is a rigid approximation of the range of management alternatives that could be used to implement environmental objectives. The next generation of hydro-economic models, currently being developed, require that the environmental alternatives be represented by continuous or semi-continuous functions which relate water resource use allocated to the environment with the probabilities of achieving environmental objectives. These functions will be generated by process models of environmental and biological systems which are now advanced to the state that they can realistically represent environmental systems and flexibility to interact with economic models. Examples are crop growth models, climate modeling, and biological models of forest, fish, and fauna systems. These process models can represent environmental outcomes in a form that is similar to economic production functions. When combined with economic models the interacting process models can reproduce a range of trade-offs between economic and environmental objectives, and thus optimize social value of many water and environmental resources. Some examples of this next-generation of hydro-enviro- economic models are reviewed. In these models implicit production functions for environmental goods are combined with hydrologic equations of motion and economic response functions. We discuss models that show interaction between

  14. More comprehensive discussion of CRC screening associated with higher screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosen, David M; Feldstein, Adrianne C; Perrin, Nancy A; Rosales, A Gabriella; Smith, David H; Liles, Elizabeth G; Schneider, Jennifer L; Meyers, Ronald E; Elston-Lafata, Jennifer

    2013-04-01

    Examine association of comprehensiveness of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening discussion by primary care physicians (PCPs) with completion of CRC screening. Observational study in Kaiser Permanente Northwest, a group-model health maintenance organization. A total of 883 participants overdue for CRC screening received an automated telephone call (ATC) between April and June 2009 encouraging CRC screening. Between January and March 2010, participants completed a survey on PCPs' discussion of CRC screening and patient beliefs regarding screening. receipt of CRC screening (assessed by electronic medical record [EMR], 9 months after ATC). Primary independent variable: comprehensiveness of CRC screening discussion by PCPs (7-item scale). Secondary independent variables: perceived benefits of screening (4-item scale assessing respondents' agreement with benefits of timely screening) and primary care utilization (EMR; 9 months after ATC). The independent association of variables with CRC screening was assessed with logistic regression. Average scores for comprehensiveness of CRC discussion and perceived benefits were 0.4 (range 0-1) and 4.0 (range 1-5), respectively. A total of 28.2% (n = 249) completed screening, 84% of whom had survey assessments after their screening date. Of screeners, 95.2% completed the fecal immunochemical test. More comprehensive discussion of CRC screening was associated with increased screening (odds ratio [OR] = 1.51, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.03-2.21). Higher perceived benefits (OR = 1.46, 95% CI = 1.13-1.90) and 1 or more PCP visits (OR = 5.82, 95% CI = 3.87-8.74) were also associated with increased screening. More comprehensive discussion of CRC screening was independently associated with increased CRC screening. Primary care utilization was even more strongly associated with CRC screening, irrespective of discussion of CRC screening.

  15. Health seeking behavioral analysis associated with breast cancer screening among Asian American women

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ma GX

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Grace X Ma,1 Wanzhen Gao,1 Sunmin Lee,2 MinQi Wang,3 Yin Tan,1 Steven E Shive,1,41Department of Public Health, Center for Asian Health, College of Health Professions, Temple University, Philadelphia, PA, USA; 2Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA; 3Department of Public and Community Health, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, MD, USA; 4East Stroudsburg University, East Stroudsburg, PA, USAObjective: The purpose of this community-based study was to apply a Sociocultural Health Behavior Model to determine the association of factors proposed in the model with breast cancer screening behaviors among Asian American women.Methods: A cross-sectional design included a sample of 682 Chinese, Korean, and Vietnamese women aged 40 years and older. The frequency distribution analysis and Chi-square analysis were used for the initial screening of the following variables: sociodemographic, cultural, enabling, environmental, and social support. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted on factors for breast cancer screening using multinomial logistic regression analysis.Results: Correlates to positive breast cancer screening included demographics (ethnicity, cultural factors (living in the United States for 15 years or more, speaking English well, enabling factors (having a regular physician to visit, health insurance covering the screening, and family/social support factors (those who had a family/friend receiving a mammogram.Conclusions: The results of this study suggest that breast cancer screening programs will be more effective if they include the cultural and health beliefs, enabling, and social support factors associated with breast cancer screening. The use of community organizations may play a role in helping to increase breast cancer screening rates among Asian American women.Keywords: breast cancer screening, Vietnamese, Korean, Chinese, breast

  16. A Study on the development of macro environmental economic model(I)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chung, Young Keun; Han, Min Jung [Korea Environment Institute, Seoul (Korea)

    1998-12-01

    This study is the first year study of the two year research project for developing a macro environmental economic model to analyze environment and economics. By using this model, the economic effects of investment on pollution reduction and on energy conservation are analyzed. Also, a comprehensive modeling of analyzing effects of environmental tax, reduction on greenhouse gas emission, and problems on foreign exchange on environment and economy is a main goal of this study. It is planned to develop a simulation program for the estimation of model and policies using environmental and economic data. 126 refs., 2 figs., 5 tabs.

  17. The Effect of Treatment Advances on the Mortality Results of Breast Cancer Screening Trials: A Microsimulation Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birnbaum, Jeanette; Gadi, Vijayakrishna K; Markowitz, Elan; Etzioni, Ruth

    2016-02-16

    Mammography trials, which are the primary sources of evidence for screening benefit, were conducted decades ago. Whether advances in systemic therapies have rendered previously observed benefits of screening less significant is unknown. To compare the outcomes of breast cancer screening trials had they been conducted using contemporary systemic treatments with outcomes of trials conducted with previously used treatments. Computer simulation model of 3 virtual screening trials with similar reductions in advanced-stage cancer cases but reflecting treatment patterns in 1975 (prechemotherapy era), 1999, or 2015 (treatment according to receptor status). Meta-analyses of screening and treatment trials; study of dissemination of primary systemic treatments; SEER (Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results) registry. U.S. women aged 50 to 74 years. 10 and 25 years. Population. Mammography, chemotherapy, tamoxifen, aromatase inhibitors, and trastuzumab. Breast cancer mortality rate ratio (MRR) and absolute risk reduction (ARR) obtained by the difference in cumulative breast cancer mortality between control and screening groups. At 10 years, screening in a 1975 trial yielded an MRR of 90% and an ARR of 5 deaths per 10,000 women. A 2015 screening trial yielded a 10-year MRR of 90% and an ARR of 3 deaths per 10,000 women. Greater reductions in advanced-stage disease yielded a greater screening effect, but MRRs remained similar across trials. However, ARRs were consistently lower under contemporary treatments. When contemporary treatments were available only for early-stage cases, the MRR was 88%. Disease models simplify reality and cannot capture all breast cancer subtypes. Advances in systemic therapies for breast cancer have not substantively reduced the relative benefits of screening but have likely reduced the absolute benefits because of their positive effect on breast cancer survival. University of Washington and National Cancer Institute.

  18. Region-to-area screening methodology for the Crystalline Repository Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-04-01

    The purpose of this document is to describe the Crystalline Repository Project's (CRP) process for region-to-area screening of exposed and near-surface crystalline rock bodies in the three regions of the conterminous United States where crystalline rock is being evaluated as a potential host for the second nuclear waste repository (i.e., in the North Central, Northeastern, and Southeastern Regions). This document indicates how the US Department of Energy's (DOE) General Guidelines for the Recommendation of Sites for Nuclear Waste Repositories (10 CFR 960) were used to select and apply factors and variables for the region-to-area screening, explains how these factors and variable are to be applied in the region-to-area screening, and indicates how this methodology relates to the decision process leading to the selection of candidate areas. A brief general discussion of the screening process from the national survey through area screening and site recommendation is presented. This discussion sets the scene for detailed discussions which follow concerning the region-to-area screening process, the guidance provided by the DOE Siting Guidelines for establishing disqualifying factors and variables for screening, and application of the disqualifying factors and variables in the screening process. This document is complementary to the regional geologic and environmental characterization reports to be issued in the summer of 1985 as final documents. These reports will contain the geologic and environmental data base that will be used in conjunction with the methodology to conduct region-to-area screening

  19. Northeastern Regional Environmental Characterization Report. Executive summary. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-08-01

    This Executive Summary of the final Northeastern Regional Environmental Characterization Report (RECR) is issued primarily for public information purposes and provides a general overview of the report. The complete RECR presents available regional environmental information pertinent to siting a repository for high-level nuclear waste in crystalline rock in Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Vermont. For each of the states within the Northeastern Region, information is provided on the environmental disqualifying factors and the environmental regional screening variables to be used in region-to-area screening

  20. North Central regional environmental characterization report: executive summary - final

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-08-01

    This Executive Summary of the final North Central Regional Environmental Characterization Report (RECR) is issued primarily for public information purposes and provides a general overview of the report. The complete RECR presents available regional environmental information pertinent to siting a repository for high-level nuclear waste in crystalline rock in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. For each of the States within the North Central Region, information is provided on the environmental disqualifying factors and the environmental regional screening variables to be used in region-to-area screening

  1. Southeastern Regional Environmental Characterization Report: executive summary. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-08-01

    This Executive Summary of the final ''Southeastern Regional Environmental Characterization Report'' (RECR) is issued primarily for public information purposes and provides a general overview of the report. The complete RECR presents available regional environmental information pertinent to siting a repository or high-level nuclear waste in crystalline rock in central Maryland; noncoastal Virginia, North Carolina, and South Carolina; and northern Georgia. For each of the states within the Southeastern Region, information is provided on the environmental disqualifying factors and the environmental regional screening variables to be used in region-to-area screening

  2. A groundwater mass flux model for screening the groundwater-to-indoor-air exposure pathway

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McHugh, T.; Blanc, P.C. de; Connor, J. [Groundwater Services Inc, Houston, TX (United States)

    2003-07-01

    The potential for human exposure via volatilisation of groundwater contaminants into indoor air has been a focus of increasing concern in recent years. At a small number of sites, elevated indoor vapour concentrations have been measured within buildings overlying shallow groundwater contaminated with chlorinated solvents, causing public concern over the potential for similar problems at other corrective action sites. In addition, use of the screening-levelmodel developed by Johnson and Ettinger (1991) for the groundwater-to-indoor-air exposure pathway has suggested that low microgram per litre (ug/L)-range concentrations of either chlorinated or non-chlorinated volatile organic compounds dissolved in groundwater could result in indoor vapour concentrations in excess of applicable risk-based exposure limits. As an alternative screening tool, this paper presents a groundwater mass flux model for evaluation of transport to indoor air. The mass flux model is intended to serve as a highly conservative screening tool that over-predicts groundwater-to-indoor-air mass flux, yet still provides sufficient sensitivity to identify sites for which the groundwater-to-indoor air exposure pathway is not a concern. (orig.)

  3. Prioritizing Environmental Chemicals for Obesity and Diabetes ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Background: Diabetes and obesity are major threats to public health in the US and abroad. Understanding the role chemicals in our environment play in the development of these conditions is an emerging issue in environmental health, although identifying and prioritizing chemicals for testing beyond those already implicated in the literature is a challenge. This review is intended to help researchers generate hypotheses about chemicals potentially contributing to diabetes and obesity-related health outcomes by summarizing relevant findings from the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) ToxCast high-throughput screening (HTS) program. Objectives: To develop new hypotheses around environmental chemicals of potential interest for diabetes- or obesity-related outcomes using high throughput screening data. Methods: Identify ToxCast assay targets relevant to several biological processes related to diabetes and obesity (insulin sensitivity in peripheral tissue, pancreatic islet and beta cell function, adipocyte dierentiation, and feeding behavior) and present chemical screening data against those assay targets to identify chemicals of potential interest. Discussion: Results of this screening-level analysis suggest that the spectrum of environmental chemicals to consider in research related to diabetes and obesity is much broader than indicated from research papers and reviews published in the peer-reviewed literature. Testing of hypotheses based on ToxCast data will a

  4. Cost-effectiveness of HIV and syphilis antenatal screening: a modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bristow, Claire C; Larson, Elysia; Anderson, Laura J; Klausner, Jeffrey D

    2016-08-01

    The WHO called for the elimination of maternal-to-child transmission (MTCT) of HIV and syphilis, a harmonised approach for the improvement of health outcomes for mothers and children. Testing early in pregnancy, treating seropositive pregnant women and preventing syphilis reinfection can prevent MTCT of HIV and syphilis. We assessed the health and economic outcomes of a dual testing strategy in a simulated cohort of 100 000 antenatal care patients in Malawi. We compared four screening algorithms: (1) HIV rapid test only, (2) dual HIV and syphilis rapid tests, (3) single rapid tests for HIV and syphilis and (4) HIV rapid and syphilis laboratory tests. We calculated the expected number of adverse pregnancy outcomes, the expected costs and the expected newborn disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for each screening algorithm. The estimated costs and DALYs for each screening algorithm were assessed from a societal perspective using Markov progression models. Additionally, we conducted a Monte Carlo multiway sensitivity analysis, allowing for ranges of inputs. Our cohort decision model predicted the lowest number of adverse pregnancy outcomes in the dual HIV and syphilis rapid test strategy. Additionally, from the societal perspective, the costs of prevention and care using a dual HIV and syphilis rapid testing strategy was both the least costly ($226.92 per pregnancy) and resulted in the fewest DALYs (116 639) per 100 000 pregnancies. In the Monte Carlo simulation the dual HIV and syphilis algorithm was always cost saving and almost always reduced DALYs compared with HIV testing alone. The results of the cost-effectiveness analysis showed that a dual HIV and syphilis test was cost saving compared with all other screening strategies. Updating existing prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission programmes in Malawi and similar countries to include dual rapid testing for HIV and syphilis is likely to be advantageous. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group

  5. Neutron stars in screened modified gravity: Chameleon versus dilaton

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brax, Philippe; Davis, Anne-Christine; Jha, Rahul

    2017-04-01

    We consider the scalar field profile around relativistic compact objects such as neutron stars for a range of modified gravity models with screening mechanisms of the chameleon and Damour-Polyakov types. We focus primarily on inverse power law chameleons and the environmentally dependent dilaton as examples of both mechanisms. We discuss the modified Tolman-Oppenheimer-Volkoff equation and then implement a relaxation algorithm to solve for the scalar profiles numerically. We find that chameleons and dilatons behave in a similar manner and that there is a large degeneracy between the modified gravity parameters and the neutron star equation of state. This is exemplified by the modifications to the mass-radius relationship for a variety of model parameters.

  6. Identification of putative estrogen receptor-mediated endocrine disrupting chemicals using QSAR- and structure-based virtual screening approaches

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Liying; Sedykh, Alexander; Tripathi, Ashutosh [Eshelman School of Pharmacy, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC (United States); Zhu, Hao [The Rutgers Center for Computational and Integrative Biology, Rutgers University, Camden, NJ (United States); Department of Chemistry, Rutgers University, Camden, NJ (United States); Afantitis, Antreas; Mouchlis, Varnavas D.; Melagraki, Georgia [NovaMechanics Ltd., Nicosia (Cyprus); Rusyn, Ivan, E-mail: iir@unc.edu [Department of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC (United States); Tropsha, Alexander, E-mail: alex_tropsha@unc.edu [Eshelman School of Pharmacy, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC (United States)

    2013-10-01

    Identification of endocrine disrupting chemicals is one of the important goals of environmental chemical hazard screening. We report on the development of validated in silico predictors of chemicals likely to cause estrogen receptor (ER)-mediated endocrine disruption to facilitate their prioritization for future screening. A database of relative binding affinity of a large number of ERα and/or ERβ ligands was assembled (546 for ERα and 137 for ERβ). Both single-task learning (STL) and multi-task learning (MTL) continuous quantitative structure–activity relationship (QSAR) models were developed for predicting ligand binding affinity to ERα or ERβ. High predictive accuracy was achieved for ERα binding affinity (MTL R{sup 2} = 0.71, STL R{sup 2} = 0.73). For ERβ binding affinity, MTL models were significantly more predictive (R{sup 2} = 0.53, p < 0.05) than STL models. In addition, docking studies were performed on a set of ER agonists/antagonists (67 agonists and 39 antagonists for ERα, 48 agonists and 32 antagonists for ERβ, supplemented by putative decoys/non-binders) using the following ER structures (in complexes with respective ligands) retrieved from the Protein Data Bank: ERα agonist (PDB ID: 1L2I), ERα antagonist (PDB ID: 3DT3), ERβ agonist (PDB ID: 2NV7), and ERβ antagonist (PDB ID: 1L2J). We found that all four ER conformations discriminated their corresponding ligands from presumed non-binders. Finally, both QSAR models and ER structures were employed in parallel to virtually screen several large libraries of environmental chemicals to derive a ligand- and structure-based prioritized list of putative estrogenic compounds to be used for in vitro and in vivo experimental validation. - Highlights: • This is the largest curated dataset inclusive of ERα and β (the latter is unique). • New methodology that for the first time affords acceptable ERβ models. • A combination of QSAR and docking enables prediction of affinity and function.

  7. Identification of putative estrogen receptor-mediated endocrine disrupting chemicals using QSAR- and structure-based virtual screening approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Liying; Sedykh, Alexander; Tripathi, Ashutosh; Zhu, Hao; Afantitis, Antreas; Mouchlis, Varnavas D.; Melagraki, Georgia; Rusyn, Ivan; Tropsha, Alexander

    2013-01-01

    Identification of endocrine disrupting chemicals is one of the important goals of environmental chemical hazard screening. We report on the development of validated in silico predictors of chemicals likely to cause estrogen receptor (ER)-mediated endocrine disruption to facilitate their prioritization for future screening. A database of relative binding affinity of a large number of ERα and/or ERβ ligands was assembled (546 for ERα and 137 for ERβ). Both single-task learning (STL) and multi-task learning (MTL) continuous quantitative structure–activity relationship (QSAR) models were developed for predicting ligand binding affinity to ERα or ERβ. High predictive accuracy was achieved for ERα binding affinity (MTL R 2 = 0.71, STL R 2 = 0.73). For ERβ binding affinity, MTL models were significantly more predictive (R 2 = 0.53, p < 0.05) than STL models. In addition, docking studies were performed on a set of ER agonists/antagonists (67 agonists and 39 antagonists for ERα, 48 agonists and 32 antagonists for ERβ, supplemented by putative decoys/non-binders) using the following ER structures (in complexes with respective ligands) retrieved from the Protein Data Bank: ERα agonist (PDB ID: 1L2I), ERα antagonist (PDB ID: 3DT3), ERβ agonist (PDB ID: 2NV7), and ERβ antagonist (PDB ID: 1L2J). We found that all four ER conformations discriminated their corresponding ligands from presumed non-binders. Finally, both QSAR models and ER structures were employed in parallel to virtually screen several large libraries of environmental chemicals to derive a ligand- and structure-based prioritized list of putative estrogenic compounds to be used for in vitro and in vivo experimental validation. - Highlights: • This is the largest curated dataset inclusive of ERα and β (the latter is unique). • New methodology that for the first time affords acceptable ERβ models. • A combination of QSAR and docking enables prediction of affinity and function. • The results

  8. Evaluation of Groundwater Impacts to Support the National Environmental Policy Act Environmental Assessment for the INL Remote-Handled Low-Level Waste Disposal Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Annette Schafer, Arthur S. Rood, A. Jeffrey Sondrup

    2011-12-23

    Groundwater impacts have been analyzed for the proposed remote-handled low-level waste disposal facility. The analysis was prepared to support the National Environmental Policy Act environmental assessment for the top two ranked sites for the proposed disposal facility. A four-phase screening and analysis approach was documented and applied. Phase I screening was site independent and applied a radionuclide half-life cut-off of 1 year. Phase II screening applied the National Council on Radiation Protection analysis approach and was site independent. Phase III screening used a simplified transport model and site-specific geologic and hydrologic parameters. Phase III neglected the infiltration-reducing engineered cover, the sorption influence of the vault system, dispersion in the vadose zone, vertical dispersion in the aquifer, and the release of radionuclides from specific waste forms. These conservatisms were relaxed in the Phase IV analysis which used a different model with more realistic parameters and assumptions. Phase I screening eliminated 143 of the 246 radionuclides in the inventory from further consideration because each had a half-life less than 1 year. An additional 13 were removed because there was no ingestion dose coefficient available. Of the 90 radionuclides carried forward from Phase I, 57 radionuclides had simulated Phase II screening doses exceeding 0.4 mrem/year. Phase III and IV screening compared the maximum predicted radionuclide concentration in the aquifer to maximum contaminant levels. Of the 57 radionuclides carried forward from Phase II, six radionuclides were identified in Phase III as having simulated future aquifer concentrations exceeding maximum contaminant limits. An additional seven radionuclides had simulated Phase III groundwater concentrations exceeding 1/100th of their respective maximum contaminant levels and were also retained for Phase IV analysis. The Phase IV analysis predicted that none of the thirteen remaining

  9. Cyanobacterial Xenobiotics as Evaluated by a Caenorhabditis elegans Neurotoxicity Screening Test

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ju, Jingjuan; Saul, Nadine; Kochan, Cindy; Putschew, Anke; Pu, Yuepu; Yin, Lihong; Steinberg, Christian E. W.

    2014-01-01

    In fresh waters cyanobacterial blooms can produce a variety of toxins, such as microcystin variants (MCs) and anatoxin-a (ANA). ANA is a well-known neurotoxin, whereas MCs are hepatotoxic and, to a lesser degree, also neurotoxic. Neurotoxicity applies especially to invertebrates lacking livers. Current standardized neurotoxicity screening methods use rats or mice. However, in order to minimize vertebrate animal experiments as well as experimental time and effort, many investigators have proposed the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans as an appropriate invertebrate model. Therefore, four known neurotoxic compounds (positive compounds: chlorpyrifos, abamectin, atropine, and acrylamide) were chosen to verify the expected impacts on autonomic (locomotion, feeding, defecation) and sensory (thermal, chemical, and mechanical sensory perception) functions in C. elegans. This study is another step towards successfully establishing C. elegans as an alternative neurotoxicity model. By using this protocol, anatoxin-a adversely affected locomotive behavior and pharyngeal pumping frequency and, most strongly, chemotactic and thermotactic behavior, whereas MC-LR impacted locomotion, pumping, and mechanical behavior, but not chemical sensory behavior. Environmental samples can also be screened in this simple and fast way for neurotoxic characteristics. The filtrate of a Microcystis aeruginosa culture, known for its hepatotoxicity, also displayed mild neurotoxicity (modulated short-term thermotaxis). These results show the suitability of this assay for environmental cyanotoxin-containing samples. PMID:24776722

  10. Use of environmental health-risk analysis for managing toxic substances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McKone, T.E.

    1985-03-01

    This paper presents a set of simple models used to assess health risks based on toxicity, environmental mobility and persistence. These models use a representative landscape in order to describe the steady-state distribution of arsenic, tritiated water, and TCDD as a result of continuous additions to soil. This information is used to assess potential exposures. Application of the screening model to three chemically different carcinogens reveals that the environmental health risk does not scale with direct measures of toxicity. As estimated here, the environmental health risk of TCDD relative to tritiated water and arsenic is roughly an order of magnitude less than its cancer potency relative to these compounds. The difference is attributable in large part to the immobility of TCDD relative to tritium and the lower persistence of TCDD compared to arsenic. The purpose is to present a simple procedure for using the relative behavior of toxic species under prototype conditions as a basis for risk management. 21 refs., 4 tabs

  11. Development of Dynamic Spent Nuclear Fuel Environmental Effect Analysis Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, Chang Joon; Ko, Won Il; Lee, Ho Hee; Cho, Dong Keun; Park, Chang Je

    2010-07-01

    The dynamic environmental effect evaluation model for spent nuclear fuel has been developed and incorporated into the system dynamic DANESS code. First, the spent nuclear fuel isotope decay model was modeled. Then, the environmental effects were modeled through short-term decay heat model, short-term radioactivity model, and long-term heat load model. By using the developed model, the Korean once-through nuclear fuel cycles was analyzed. The once-through fuel cycle analysis was modeled based on the Korean 'National Energy Basic Plan' up to 2030 and a postulated nuclear demand growth rate until 2150. From the once-through results, it is shown that the nuclear power demand would be ∼70 GWe and the total amount of the spent fuel accumulated by 2150 would be ∼168000 t. If the disposal starts from 2060, the short-term decay heat of Cs-137 and Sr-90 isotopes are W and 1.8x10 6 W in 2100. Also, the total long-term heat load in 2100 will be 4415 MW-y. From the calculation results, it was found that the developed model is very convenient and simple for evaluation of the environmental effect of the spent nuclear fuel

  12. Hybrid LCA model for assessing the embodied environmental impacts of buildings in South Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jang, Minho; Hong, Taehoon; Ji, Changyoon

    2015-01-01

    The assessment of the embodied environmental impacts of buildings can help decision-makers plan environment-friendly buildings and reduce environmental impacts. For a more comprehensive assessment of the embodied environmental impacts of buildings, a hybrid life cycle assessment model was developed in this study. The developed model can assess the embodied environmental impacts (global warming, ozone layer depletion, acidification, eutrophication, photochemical ozone creation, abiotic depletion, and human toxicity) generated directly and indirectly in the material manufacturing, transportation, and construction phases. To demonstrate the application and validity of the developed model, the environmental impacts of an elementary school building were assessed using the developed model and compared with the results of a previous model used in a case study. The embodied environmental impacts from the previous model were lower than those from the developed model by 4.6–25.2%. Particularly, human toxicity potential (13 kg C 6 H 6 eq.) calculated by the previous model was much lower (1965 kg C 6 H 6 eq.) than what was calculated by the developed model. The results indicated that the developed model can quantify the embodied environmental impacts of buildings more comprehensively, and can be used by decision-makers as a tool for selecting environment-friendly buildings. - Highlights: • The model was developed to assess the embodied environmental impacts of buildings. • The model evaluates GWP, ODP, AP, EP, POCP, ADP, and HTP as environmental impacts. • The model presents more comprehensive results than the previous model by 4.6–100%. • The model can present the HTP of buildings, which the previous models cannot do. • Decision-makers can use the model for selecting environment-friendly buildings

  13. Environmental Models as a Service: Enabling Interoperability ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achieving interoperability in environmental modeling has evolved as software technology has progressed. The recent rise of cloud computing and proliferation of web services initiated a new stage for creating interoperable systems. Scientific programmers increasingly take advantage of streamlined deployment processes and affordable cloud access to move algorithms and data to the web for discoverability and consumption. In these deployments, environmental models can become available to end users through RESTful web services and consistent application program interfaces (APIs) that consume, manipulate, and store modeling data. RESTful modeling APIs also promote discoverability and guide usability through self-documentation. Embracing the RESTful paradigm allows models to be accessible via a web standard, and the resulting endpoints are platform- and implementation-agnostic while simultaneously presenting significant computational capabilities for spatial and temporal scaling. RESTful APIs present data in a simple verb-noun web request interface: the verb dictates how a resource is consumed using HTTP methods (e.g., GET, POST, and PUT) and the noun represents the URL reference of the resource on which the verb will act. The RESTful API can self-document in both the HTTP response and an interactive web page using the Open API standard. This lets models function as an interoperable service that promotes sharing, documentation, and discoverability. Here, we discuss the

  14. Evaluation of Cannabidiol in Animal Seizure Models by the Epilepsy Therapy Screening Program (ETSP).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Brian D; Jacobson, Catherine A; Metcalf, Cameron S; Smith, Misty D; Wilcox, Karen S; Hampson, Aidan J; Kehne, John H

    2017-07-01

    Cannabidiol (CBD) is a cannabinoid component of marijuana that has no significant activity at cannabinoid receptors or psychoactive effects. There is considerable interest in CBD as a therapy for epilepsy. Almost a third of epilepsy patients are not adequately controlled by clinically available anti-seizure drugs (ASDs). Initial studies appear to demonstrate that CBD preparations may be a useful treatment for pharmacoresistant epilepsy. The National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke (NINDS) funded Epilepsy Therapy Screening Program (ETSP) investigated CBD in a battery of seizure models using a refocused screening protocol aimed at identifying pharmacotherapies to address the unmet need in pharmacoresistant epilepsy. Applying this new screening workflow, CBD was investigated in mouse 6 Hz 44 mA, maximal electroshock (MES), corneal kindling models and rat MES and lamotrigine-resistant amygdala kindling models. Following intraperitoneal (i.p.) pretreatment, CBD produced dose-dependent protection in the acute seizure models; mouse 6 Hz 44 mA (ED 50 164 mg/kg), mouse MES (ED 50 83.5 mg/kg) and rat MES (ED 50 88.9 mg/kg). In chronic models, CBD produced dose-dependent protection in the corneal kindled mouse (ED 50 119 mg/kg) but CBD (up to 300 mg/kg) was not protective in the lamotrigine-resistant amygdala kindled rat. Motor impairment assessed in conjunction with the acute seizure models showed that CBD exerted seizure protection at non-impairing doses. The ETSP investigation demonstrates that CBD exhibits anti-seizure properties in acute seizure models and the corneal kindled mouse. However, further preclinical and clinical studies are needed to determine the potential for CBD to address the unmet needs in pharmacoresistant epilepsy.

  15. SEA screening of voluntary climate change plans: A story of non-compliant discretion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kørnøv, Lone; Wejs, Anja

    2013-01-01

    Screening within Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) is the first critical stage involving considerations on whether an assessment is carried out or not. Although legislation and guidance offer practitioners a legal and logical approach to the screening process, it is inevitable that discretionary judgement takes place and will impact on the screening decision. This article examines the results of discretion involved in screening of climate change plans (CCPs) in a Danish context. These years voluntary CCPs are developed as a response to the global and local emergence of both mitigation and adaptation, and the voluntary commitment by the local authorities is an indication of an emerging norm of climate change as an important issue. This article takes its point of departure in the observation that SEA is not undertaken for these voluntary CCPs. The critical analysis of this phenomenon rests upon a documentary study of Danish CCPs, interviews with a lawyer and ministerial key person and informal discussions between researchers, practitioners and lawyers on whether climate change plans are covered by SEA legislation and underlying reasons for the present practice. Based on a critical analysis of mandatory SEA and/or obligation to screen CCPs according to significance criteria, the authors find that 18 out of the 48 CCPs are mandatory to SEA and 9 would require a screening of significance and thereby potentially be followed by a SEA. In practice only one plan was screened and one was environmentally assessed. The legal, democratic and environmental consequences of this SEA practice are critically discussed. Hereunder is the missed opportunity to use the broad environmental scope of SEA to avoid a narrow focus on energy and CO 2 in CCPs, and the question whether this practice in Denmark complies with the EU Directive. -- Highlights: ► It is inevitable that discretionary judgement takes place and will impact on the screening decision. ► The article hereby calls

  16. SEA screening of voluntary climate change plans: A story of non-compliant discretion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kørnøv, Lone, E-mail: lonek@plan.aau.dk; Wejs, Anja

    2013-07-15

    Screening within Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) is the first critical stage involving considerations on whether an assessment is carried out or not. Although legislation and guidance offer practitioners a legal and logical approach to the screening process, it is inevitable that discretionary judgement takes place and will impact on the screening decision. This article examines the results of discretion involved in screening of climate change plans (CCPs) in a Danish context. These years voluntary CCPs are developed as a response to the global and local emergence of both mitigation and adaptation, and the voluntary commitment by the local authorities is an indication of an emerging norm of climate change as an important issue. This article takes its point of departure in the observation that SEA is not undertaken for these voluntary CCPs. The critical analysis of this phenomenon rests upon a documentary study of Danish CCPs, interviews with a lawyer and ministerial key person and informal discussions between researchers, practitioners and lawyers on whether climate change plans are covered by SEA legislation and underlying reasons for the present practice. Based on a critical analysis of mandatory SEA and/or obligation to screen CCPs according to significance criteria, the authors find that 18 out of the 48 CCPs are mandatory to SEA and 9 would require a screening of significance and thereby potentially be followed by a SEA. In practice only one plan was screened and one was environmentally assessed. The legal, democratic and environmental consequences of this SEA practice are critically discussed. Hereunder is the missed opportunity to use the broad environmental scope of SEA to avoid a narrow focus on energy and CO{sub 2} in CCPs, and the question whether this practice in Denmark complies with the EU Directive. -- Highlights: ► It is inevitable that discretionary judgement takes place and will impact on the screening decision. ► The article hereby

  17. Parametric Linear Hybrid Automata for Complex Environmental Systems Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samar Hayat Khan Tareen

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Environmental systems, whether they be weather patterns or predator-prey relationships, are dependent on a number of different variables, each directly or indirectly affecting the system at large. Since not all of these factors are known, these systems take on non-linear dynamics, making it difficult to accurately predict meaningful behavioral trends far into the future. However, such dynamics do not warrant complete ignorance of different efforts to understand and model close approximations of these systems. Towards this end, we have applied a logical modeling approach to model and analyze the behavioral trends and systematic trajectories that these systems exhibit without delving into their quantification. This approach, formalized by René Thomas for discrete logical modeling of Biological Regulatory Networks (BRNs and further extended in our previous studies as parametric biological linear hybrid automata (Bio-LHA, has been previously employed for the analyses of different molecular regulatory interactions occurring across various cells and microbial species. As relationships between different interacting components of a system can be simplified as positive or negative influences, we can employ the Bio-LHA framework to represent different components of the environmental system as positive or negative feedbacks. In the present study, we highlight the benefits of hybrid (discrete/continuous modeling which lead to refinements among the fore-casted behaviors in order to find out which ones are actually possible. We have taken two case studies: an interaction of three microbial species in a freshwater pond, and a more complex atmospheric system, to show the applications of the Bio-LHA methodology for the timed hybrid modeling of environmental systems. Results show that the approach using the Bio-LHA is a viable method for behavioral modeling of complex environmental systems by finding timing constraints while keeping the complexity of the model

  18. Coupling model of energy consumption with changes in environmental utility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He Hongming; Jim, C.Y.

    2012-01-01

    This study explores the relationships between metropolis energy consumption and environmental utility changes by a proposed Environmental Utility of Energy Consumption (EUEC) model. Based on the dynamic equilibrium of input–output economics theory, it considers three simulation scenarios: fixed-technology, technological-innovation, and green-building effect. It is applied to analyse Hong Kong in 1980–2007. Continual increase in energy consumption with rapid economic growth degraded environmental utility. First, energy consumption at fixed-technology was determined by economic outcome. In 1990, it reached a critical balanced state when energy consumption was 22×10 9 kWh. Before 1990 (x 1 9 kWh), rise in energy consumption improved both economic development and environmental utility. After 1990 (x 1 >22×10 9 kWh), expansion of energy consumption facilitated socio-economic development but suppressed environmental benefits. Second, technological-innovation strongly influenced energy demand and improved environmental benefits. The balanced state remained in 1999 when energy consumption reached 32.33×10 9 kWh. Technological-innovation dampened energy consumption by 12.99%, exceeding the fixed-technology condition. Finally, green buildings reduced energy consumption by an average of 17.5% in 1990–2007. They contributed significantly to energy saving, and buffered temperature fluctuations between external and internal environment. The case investigations verified the efficiency of the EUEC model, which can effectively evaluate the interplay of energy consumption and environmental quality. - Highlights: ► We explore relationships between metropolis energy consumption and environmental utility. ► An Environmental Utility of Energy Consumption (EUEC) model is proposed. ► Technological innovation mitigates energy consumption impacts on environmental quality. ► Technological innovation decreases demand of energy consumption more than fixed technology scenario

  19. Using the Larval Zebrafish Locomotor Assay in Functional Neurotoxicity Screening: Light Intensity and the Order of Stimulus Presentation Affect the Outcome

    Science.gov (United States)

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is evaluating methods to screen and prioritize large numbers of chemicals using 6 day old zebrafish (Danio rerio) as an alternative test model for detecting neurotoxic chemicals. We use a behavioral testing paradigm that simultaneously tes...

  20. Screening for a Chronic Disease: A Multiple Stage Duration Model with Partial Observability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mroz, Thomas A; Picone, Gabriel; Sloan, Frank; Yashkin, Arseniy P

    2016-08-01

    We estimate a dynamic multi-stage duration model to investigate how early detection of diabetes can delay the onset of lower extremity complications and death. We allow for partial observability of the disease stage, unmeasured heterogeneity, and endogenous timing of diabetes screening. Timely diagnosis appears important. We evaluate the effectiveness of two potential policies to reduce the monetary costs of frequent screening in terms of lost longevity. Compared to the status quo, the more restrictive policy yields an implicit value for an additional year of life of about $50,000, while the less restrictive policy implies a value of about $120,000.

  1. Environmental Justice (EJSCREEN) Block Group Data (USEPA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — EJSCREEN is an environmental justice (EJ) screening and mapping tool that provides EPA with a nationally consistent dataset and methodology for calculating "EJ...

  2. Empirical study of supervised gene screening

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ma Shuangge

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Microarray studies provide a way of linking variations of phenotypes with their genetic causations. Constructing predictive models using high dimensional microarray measurements usually consists of three steps: (1 unsupervised gene screening; (2 supervised gene screening; and (3 statistical model building. Supervised gene screening based on marginal gene ranking is commonly used to reduce the number of genes in the model building. Various simple statistics, such as t-statistic or signal to noise ratio, have been used to rank genes in the supervised screening. Despite of its extensive usage, statistical study of supervised gene screening remains scarce. Our study is partly motivated by the differences in gene discovery results caused by using different supervised gene screening methods. Results We investigate concordance and reproducibility of supervised gene screening based on eight commonly used marginal statistics. Concordance is assessed by the relative fractions of overlaps between top ranked genes screened using different marginal statistics. We propose a Bootstrap Reproducibility Index, which measures reproducibility of individual genes under the supervised screening. Empirical studies are based on four public microarray data. We consider the cases where the top 20%, 40% and 60% genes are screened. Conclusion From a gene discovery point of view, the effect of supervised gene screening based on different marginal statistics cannot be ignored. Empirical studies show that (1 genes passed different supervised screenings may be considerably different; (2 concordance may vary, depending on the underlying data structure and percentage of selected genes; (3 evaluated with the Bootstrap Reproducibility Index, genes passed supervised screenings are only moderately reproducible; and (4 concordance cannot be improved by supervised screening based on reproducibility.

  3. MODEL OF IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT SYSTEM BY MULTI - SOFTWARE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jelena Jovanovic

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper is based on doctoral dissertation which is oriented on improving environmental management system using multi - software. In this doctoral dissertation will be used key results of master thesis which is oriented on quantification environmental aspects and impacts by artificial neural network in organizations. This paper recommend improving environmental management system in organization using Balanced scorecard model and MCDM method - AHP (Analytic hierarchy process based on group decision. BSC would be spread with elements of Environmental management system and used in area of strategic management system in organization and AHP would be used in area of checking results getting by quantification environmental aspects and impacts.

  4. Playing It Safe: Assessing Cumulative Impact and Social Vulnerability through an Environmental Justice Screening Method in the South Coast Air Basin, California

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justin Scoggins

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Regulatory agencies, including the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA and state authorities like the California Air Resources Board (CARB, have sought to address the concerns of environmental justice (EJ advocates who argue that chemical-by-chemical and source-specific assessments of potential health risks of environmental hazards do not reflect the multiple environmental and social stressors faced by vulnerable communities. We propose an Environmental Justice Screening Method (EJSM as a relatively simple, flexible and transparent way to examine the relative rank of cumulative impacts and social vulnerability within metropolitan regions and determine environmental justice areas based on more than simply the demographics of income and race. We specifically organize 23 indicator metrics into three categories: (1 hazard proximity and land use; (2 air pollution exposure and estimated health risk; and (3 social and health vulnerability. For hazard proximity, the EJSM uses GIS analysis to create a base map by intersecting land use data with census block polygons, and calculates hazard proximity measures based on locations within various buffer distances. These proximity metrics are then summarized to the census tract level where they are combined with tract centroid-based estimates of pollution exposure and health risk and socio-economic status (SES measures. The result is a cumulative impacts (CI score for ranking neighborhoods within regions that can inform diverse stakeholders seeking to identify local areas that might need targeted regulatory strategies to address environmental justice concerns.

  5. Predicting soil, water, and air concentrations of environmental contaminants locally and regionally: Multimedia transport and transformation models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McKone, T.E.; Daniels, J.I.

    1991-10-01

    Environmental scientists recognize that the environment functions as a complex, interconnected system. A realistic risk-management strategy for many contaminants requires a comprehensive and integrated assessment of local and regional transport and transformation processes. In response to this need, we have developed multimedia models that simulate the movement and transformation of chemicals as they spread through air, water, biota, soils, sediments, surface water, and ground water. Each component of the environment is treated as a homogeneous subsystem that can exchange water, nutrients, and chemical contaminants with other adjacent compartments. In this paper, we illustrate the use of multimedia models and measurements as tools for screening the potential risks of contaminants released to air and deposited onto soil and plants. The contaminant list includes the volatile organic compounds (VOCs) tetrachloroethylene (PCE) and trichloroethylene (TCE), the semi-volatile organic compound benzo(a)pyrene, and the radionuclides tritium and uranium-238. We examine how chemical properties effect both the ultimate route and quantity of human and ecosystem contact and identify sensitivities and uncertainties in the model results

  6. Phenotypic Screening Identifies Modulators of Amyloid Precursor Protein Processing in Human Stem Cell Models of Alzheimer’s Disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip W. Brownjohn

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Summary: Human stem cell models have the potential to provide platforms for phenotypic screens to identify candidate treatments and cellular pathways involved in the pathogenesis of neurodegenerative disorders. Amyloid precursor protein (APP processing and the accumulation of APP-derived amyloid β (Aβ peptides are key processes in Alzheimer's disease (AD. We designed a phenotypic small-molecule screen to identify modulators of APP processing in trisomy 21/Down syndrome neurons, a complex genetic model of AD. We identified the avermectins, commonly used as anthelmintics, as compounds that increase the relative production of short Aβ peptides at the expense of longer, potentially more toxic peptides. Further studies demonstrated that this effect is not due to an interaction with the core γ-secretase responsible for Aβ production. This study demonstrates the feasibility of phenotypic drug screening in human stem cell models of Alzheimer-type dementia, and points to possibilities for indirectly modulating APP processing, independently of γ-secretase modulation. : In this article, Livesey and colleagues perform a phenotypic drug screen in a human stem cell model of Alzheimer's disease. The anthelminthic avermectins are identified as a family of compounds that increase the production of short Aβ peptides over longer more toxic Aβ forms. The effect is analogous to existing γ-secretase modulators, but is independent of the core γ-secretase complex. Keywords: neural stem cells, Alzheimer's disease, phenotypic screening, iPSCs, human neurons, dementia, Down syndrome, amyloid beta, ivermectin, selamectin

  7. A Computational model for compressed sensing RNAi cellular screening

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tan Hua

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background RNA interference (RNAi becomes an increasingly important and effective genetic tool to study the function of target genes by suppressing specific genes of interest. This system approach helps identify signaling pathways and cellular phase types by tracking intensity and/or morphological changes of cells. The traditional RNAi screening scheme, in which one siRNA is designed to knockdown one specific mRNA target, needs a large library of siRNAs and turns out to be time-consuming and expensive. Results In this paper, we propose a conceptual model, called compressed sensing RNAi (csRNAi, which employs a unique combination of group of small interfering RNAs (siRNAs to knockdown a much larger size of genes. This strategy is based on the fact that one gene can be partially bound with several small interfering RNAs (siRNAs and conversely, one siRNA can bind to a few genes with distinct binding affinity. This model constructs a multi-to-multi correspondence between siRNAs and their targets, with siRNAs much fewer than mRNA targets, compared with the conventional scheme. Mathematically this problem involves an underdetermined system of equations (linear or nonlinear, which is ill-posed in general. However, the recently developed compressed sensing (CS theory can solve this problem. We present a mathematical model to describe the csRNAi system based on both CS theory and biological concerns. To build this model, we first search nucleotide motifs in a target gene set. Then we propose a machine learning based method to find the effective siRNAs with novel features, such as image features and speech features to describe an siRNA sequence. Numerical simulations show that we can reduce the siRNA library to one third of that in the conventional scheme. In addition, the features to describe siRNAs outperform the existing ones substantially. Conclusions This csRNAi system is very promising in saving both time and cost for large-scale RNAi

  8. ENVIRONMENTAL RESPONSIBILITY MODEL BASED ON ISO 14000 MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catalina SITNIKOV

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Worldwide corporations, as well as their stakeholders, are more conscious of the need for environmental management, SR behaviour, and sustainable growth and development. International Standards are becoming more significant for corporations to work towards common environmental management practices. ISO 14001 is the first and the broadest standard intended at a more responsible approach of corporations and the world’s most acknowledged framework for environmental management systems that assists corporations to better manage the effect of their activities on the environment. This article aims to study ISO 14001 implementation and its effects on the environmental responsibility. A model will be built, which covers the environmental management system, the components of organizational culture, being able to influence environmental standards implementation.

  9. Hybrid LCA model for assessing the embodied environmental impacts of buildings in South Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jang, Minho, E-mail: minmin40@hanmail.net [Asset Management Division, Mate Plus Co., Ltd., 9th Fl., Financial News Bldg. 24-5 Yeouido-dong, Yeongdeungpo-gu, Seoul, 150-877 (Korea, Republic of); Hong, Taehoon, E-mail: hong7@yonsei.ac.kr [Department of Architectural Engineering, Yonsei University, Seoul, 120-749 (Korea, Republic of); Ji, Changyoon, E-mail: chnagyoon@yonsei.ac.kr [Department of Architectural Engineering, Yonsei University, Seoul, 120-749 (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-01-15

    The assessment of the embodied environmental impacts of buildings can help decision-makers plan environment-friendly buildings and reduce environmental impacts. For a more comprehensive assessment of the embodied environmental impacts of buildings, a hybrid life cycle assessment model was developed in this study. The developed model can assess the embodied environmental impacts (global warming, ozone layer depletion, acidification, eutrophication, photochemical ozone creation, abiotic depletion, and human toxicity) generated directly and indirectly in the material manufacturing, transportation, and construction phases. To demonstrate the application and validity of the developed model, the environmental impacts of an elementary school building were assessed using the developed model and compared with the results of a previous model used in a case study. The embodied environmental impacts from the previous model were lower than those from the developed model by 4.6–25.2%. Particularly, human toxicity potential (13 kg C{sub 6}H{sub 6} eq.) calculated by the previous model was much lower (1965 kg C{sub 6}H{sub 6} eq.) than what was calculated by the developed model. The results indicated that the developed model can quantify the embodied environmental impacts of buildings more comprehensively, and can be used by decision-makers as a tool for selecting environment-friendly buildings. - Highlights: • The model was developed to assess the embodied environmental impacts of buildings. • The model evaluates GWP, ODP, AP, EP, POCP, ADP, and HTP as environmental impacts. • The model presents more comprehensive results than the previous model by 4.6–100%. • The model can present the HTP of buildings, which the previous models cannot do. • Decision-makers can use the model for selecting environment-friendly buildings.

  10. Methodologies of environmental impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schroll, H.

    1994-01-01

    This article gives a brief introduction covering the objectives of environmental impact assessment (EIA) and sustainable development, before going on to describe the screening procedure to define the environmental and socio-economic impacts of projects. The EIA procedure outlined encompasses a description of the project, examination of all environmental effects (scoping), identification of existing and predicted environmental conditions and impacts, alternative measures and mitigating measures, co-ordination, with environmental regulations, public participation, and monitoring and approval of the EIA. (UK)

  11. Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    K. Rasmuson; K. Rautenstrauch

    2004-09-14

    This analysis is one of 10 technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) (i.e., the biosphere model). It documents development of agricultural and environmental input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters.

  12. Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    K. Rasmuson; K. Rautenstrauch

    2004-01-01

    This analysis is one of 10 technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) (i.e., the biosphere model). It documents development of agricultural and environmental input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters

  13. Atmospheric dispersion models for environmental pollution applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gifford, F.A.

    1976-01-01

    Pollutants are introduced into the air by many of man's activities. The potentially harmful effects these can cause are, broadly speaking, of two kinds: long-term, possibly large-scale and wide-spread chronic effects, including long-term effects on the earth's climate; and acute, short-term effects such as those associated with urban air pollution. This section is concerned with mathematical cloud or plume models describing the role of the atmosphere, primarily in relation to the second of these, the acute effects of air pollution, i.e., those arising from comparatively high concentration levels. The need for such air pollution modeling studies has increased spectacularly as a result of the National Environmental Policy Act of 1968 and, especially, two key court decisions; the Calvert Cliffs decision, and the Sierra Club ruling on environmental non-degradation

  14. Integration of Life-Stage Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Models with Adverse Outcome Pathways and Environmental Exposure Models to Screen for Environmental Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    A Life-stage Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model was developed to include descriptions of several life-stage events such as pregnancy, fetal development, the neonate and child growth. The overall modeling strategy was used for in vitro to in vivo (IVIVE) extrapolat...

  15. Impact of screening and early detection of impaired fasting glucose tolerance and type 2 diabetes in Canada: a Markov model simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Badawi A

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Soroush Mortaz*, Christine Wessman*, Ross Duncan, Rachel Gray, Alaa Badawi Office of Biotechnology Genomics and Population Health, Public Health Agency of Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada*Both authors contributed equally to this workBackground: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM is a major global health problem. An estimated 20%–50% of diabetic subjects in Canada are currently undiagnosed, and around 20%–30% have already developed complications. Screening for high blood glucose levels can identify people with prediabetic conditions and permit introduction of timely and effective prevention. This study examines the benefit of screening for impaired fasting glucose (IFG and T2DM. If intervention is introduced at this prediabetic stage, it can be most effective in delaying the onset and complications of T2DM.Methods: Using a Markov model simulation, we compare the cost-effectiveness of screening for prediabetes (IFG and T2DM with the strategy of no screening. An initial cohort of normoglycemic, prediabetic, or undiagnosed diabetic adults with one or more T2DM risk factors was used to model the strategies mentioned over a 10-year period. Subjects without known prediabetes or diabetes are screened every 3 years and persons with prediabetes were tested for diabetes on an annual basis. The model weighs the increase in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs associated with early detection of prediabetes and earlier diagnosis of T2DM due to lifestyle intervention and early treatment in asymptomatic subjects.Results: Costs for each QALY gained were $2281 for conventional screening compared with $2890 for no screening. Thus, in this base-case analysis, conventional screening with a frequency of once every 3 years was favored over no screening. Furthermore, conventional screening was more favorable compared with no screening over a wide range of willingness-to-pay thresholds. Changing the frequency of screening did not affect the overall results. Screening

  16. Guidance Manual for Conducting Screening Level Ecological Risk Assessments at the INEL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    R. L. VanHorn; N. L. Hampton; R. C. Morris

    1995-06-01

    This document presents reference material for conducting screening level ecological risk assessments (SLERAs)for the waste area groups (WAGs) at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. Included in this document are discussions of the objectives of and processes for conducting SLERAs. The Environmental Protection Agency ecological risk assessment framework is closely followed. Guidance for site characterization, stressor characterization, ecological effects, pathways of contaminant migration, the conceptual site model, assessment endpoints, measurement endpoints, analysis guidance, and risk characterization are included.

  17. Photoprotection in Plants Optical Screening-based Mechanisms

    CERN Document Server

    Solovchenko, Alexei

    2010-01-01

    Optical screening of excessive and potentially harmful solar radiation is an important photoprotective mechanism, though it has received much less attention in comparison with other systems preventing photooxidative damage to photoautotrophic organisms. This photoprotection in the form of screening appears to be especially important for juvenile and senescing plants as well as under environmental stresses—i.e. in situations where the efficiency of enzymatic ROS elimination, DNA repair and other ‘classical’ photoprotective systems could be impaired. This book represents an attempt to develop an integral view of optical screening-based photoprotection in microalgae and higher plants. Towards this end, the key groups of pigments involved in the screening of ultraviolet and visible components of solar radiation in microalgae and higher plants, and the patterns of their accumulation and distribution within plant cells and tissues, are described. Special attention is paid to the manifestations of screening pi...

  18. Dose-response relationships for environmentally mediated infectious disease transmission models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew F Brouwer

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Environmentally mediated infectious disease transmission models provide a mechanistic approach to examining environmental interventions for outbreaks, such as water treatment or surface decontamination. The shift from the classical SIR framework to one incorporating the environment requires codifying the relationship between exposure to environmental pathogens and infection, i.e. the dose-response relationship. Much of the work characterizing the functional forms of dose-response relationships has used statistical fit to experimental data. However, there has been little research examining the consequences of the choice of functional form in the context of transmission dynamics. To this end, we identify four properties of dose-response functions that should be considered when selecting a functional form: low-dose linearity, scalability, concavity, and whether it is a single-hit model. We find that i middle- and high-dose data do not constrain the low-dose response, and different dose-response forms that are equally plausible given the data can lead to significant differences in simulated outbreak dynamics; ii the choice of how to aggregate continuous exposure into discrete doses can impact the modeled force of infection; iii low-dose linear, concave functions allow the basic reproduction number to control global dynamics; and iv identifiability analysis offers a way to manage multiple sources of uncertainty and leverage environmental monitoring to make inference about infectivity. By applying an environmentally mediated infectious disease model to the 1993 Milwaukee Cryptosporidium outbreak, we demonstrate that environmental monitoring allows for inference regarding the infectivity of the pathogen and thus improves our ability to identify outbreak characteristics such as pathogen strain.

  19. Human health and the environment: Predicting plasma protein binding and metabolic clearance rates of environmentally relevant chemicals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    In silico methods provide a rapid, inexpensive means of screening a wide array of environmentally relevant pollutants, pesticides, fungicides and consumer products for further toxicity testing. Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models bridge the gap between in vitro as...

  20. Environmental, structural and process barriers in breast cancer screening for women with physical disability: A qualitative study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peters, K.; Cotton, A.

    2016-01-01

    Breast cancer is the most common cancer in women internationally and is responsible for the deaths of thousands of women annually. Early detection of breast cancer is integral to ensure early intervention which increases survival rates and health outcomes for women. Despite the availability of breast cancer screening (BCS), previous research has identified that women with physical disability are less likely to access BCS and when they do, they encounter substantial barriers to these services. This paper presents the environmental, systemic and process barriers that women with physical disability face in undertaking BCS in New South Wales, Australia. A qualitative design was used to collect data via in-depth interviews which were audio-recorded, transcribed verbatim and thematically analysed. Twelve women with physical disability participated in interviews to share their experiences of BCS. Findings revealed that participants had both negative and positive experiences during BCS and are presented in the following four themes: Needing better access, Feeling like the machines aren't made for people like me; Experiencing health workers as being clinical and detached and; Facilitating and improving the experience of breast screening. Participants encountered substantial difficulties with the inflexibility of the diagnostic equipment. Further some conveyed that negative experiences of the procedure and interactions with staff while accessing mammography would deter them from returning for BCS. Informed and individualised care is required to enhance the experience of women with physical disability and thus increase uptake rates of this service. - Highlights: • Women with physical disabilities have unique needs in accessing mammography. • Significant difficulties were reported in accessing and negotiating equipment. • Staff attitudes considerably influenced participants' breast screening experience. • Participants recommend changes to mammography to

  1. Model of environmental life cycle assessment for coal mining operations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burchart-Korol, Dorota, E-mail: dburchart@gig.eu; Fugiel, Agata, E-mail: afugiel@gig.eu; Czaplicka-Kolarz, Krystyna, E-mail: kczaplicka@gig.eu; Turek, Marian, E-mail: mturek@gig.eu

    2016-08-15

    This paper presents a novel approach to environmental assessment of coal mining operations, which enables assessment of the factors that are both directly and indirectly affecting the environment and are associated with the production of raw materials and energy used in processes. The primary novelty of the paper is the development of a computational environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) model for coal mining operations and the application of the model for coal mining operations in Poland. The LCA model enables the assessment of environmental indicators for all identified unit processes in hard coal mines with the life cycle approach. The proposed model enables the assessment of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) based on the IPCC method and the assessment of damage categories, such as human health, ecosystems and resources based on the ReCiPe method. The model enables the assessment of GHGs for hard coal mining operations in three time frames: 20, 100 and 500 years. The model was used to evaluate the coal mines in Poland. It was demonstrated that the largest environmental impacts in damage categories were associated with the use of fossil fuels, methane emissions and the use of electricity, processing of wastes, heat, and steel supports. It was concluded that an environmental assessment of coal mining operations, apart from direct influence from processing waste, methane emissions and drainage water, should include the use of electricity, heat and steel, particularly for steel supports. Because the model allows the comparison of environmental impact assessment for various unit processes, it can be used for all hard coal mines, not only in Poland but also in the world. This development is an important step forward in the study of the impacts of fossil fuels on the environment with the potential to mitigate the impact of the coal industry on the environment. - Highlights: • A computational LCA model for assessment of coal mining operations • Identification of

  2. Model of environmental life cycle assessment for coal mining operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burchart-Korol, Dorota; Fugiel, Agata; Czaplicka-Kolarz, Krystyna; Turek, Marian

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a novel approach to environmental assessment of coal mining operations, which enables assessment of the factors that are both directly and indirectly affecting the environment and are associated with the production of raw materials and energy used in processes. The primary novelty of the paper is the development of a computational environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) model for coal mining operations and the application of the model for coal mining operations in Poland. The LCA model enables the assessment of environmental indicators for all identified unit processes in hard coal mines with the life cycle approach. The proposed model enables the assessment of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) based on the IPCC method and the assessment of damage categories, such as human health, ecosystems and resources based on the ReCiPe method. The model enables the assessment of GHGs for hard coal mining operations in three time frames: 20, 100 and 500 years. The model was used to evaluate the coal mines in Poland. It was demonstrated that the largest environmental impacts in damage categories were associated with the use of fossil fuels, methane emissions and the use of electricity, processing of wastes, heat, and steel supports. It was concluded that an environmental assessment of coal mining operations, apart from direct influence from processing waste, methane emissions and drainage water, should include the use of electricity, heat and steel, particularly for steel supports. Because the model allows the comparison of environmental impact assessment for various unit processes, it can be used for all hard coal mines, not only in Poland but also in the world. This development is an important step forward in the study of the impacts of fossil fuels on the environment with the potential to mitigate the impact of the coal industry on the environment. - Highlights: • A computational LCA model for assessment of coal mining operations • Identification of

  3. The Clinical and Economic Benefits of Co-Testing Versus Primary HPV Testing for Cervical Cancer Screening: A Modeling Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felix, Juan C; Lacey, Michael J; Miller, Jeffrey D; Lenhart, Gregory M; Spitzer, Mark; Kulkarni, Rucha

    2016-06-01

    Consensus United States cervical cancer screening guidelines recommend use of combination Pap plus human papillomavirus (HPV) testing for women aged 30 to 65 years. An HPV test was approved by the Food and Drug Administration in 2014 for primary cervical cancer screening in women age 25 years and older. Here, we present the results of clinical-economic comparisons of Pap plus HPV mRNA testing including genotyping for HPV 16/18 (co-testing) versus DNA-based primary HPV testing with HPV 16/18 genotyping and reflex cytology (HPV primary) for cervical cancer screening. A health state transition (Markov) model with 1-year cycling was developed using epidemiologic, clinical, and economic data from healthcare databases and published literature. A hypothetical cohort of one million women receiving triennial cervical cancer screening was simulated from ages 30 to 70 years. Screening strategies compared HPV primary to co-testing. Outcomes included total and incremental differences in costs, invasive cervical cancer (ICC) cases, ICC deaths, number of colposcopies, and quality-adjusted life years for cost-effectiveness calculations. Comprehensive sensitivity analyses were performed. In a simulation cohort of one million 30-year-old women modeled up to age 70 years, the model predicted that screening with HPV primary testing instead of co-testing could lead to as many as 2,141 more ICC cases and 2,041 more ICC deaths. In the simulation, co-testing demonstrated a greater number of lifetime quality-adjusted life years (22,334) and yielded $39.0 million in savings compared with HPV primary, thereby conferring greater effectiveness at lower cost. Model results demonstrate that co-testing has the potential to provide improved clinical and economic outcomes when compared with HPV primary. While actual cost and outcome data are evaluated, these findings are relevant to U.S. healthcare payers and women's health policy advocates seeking cost-effective cervical cancer screening

  4. Feasibility and patient acceptability of a novel artificial intelligence-based screening model for diabetic retinopathy at endocrinology outpatient services: a pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keel, Stuart; Lee, Pei Ying; Scheetz, Jane; Li, Zhixi; Kotowicz, Mark A; MacIsaac, Richard J; He, Mingguang

    2018-03-12

    The purpose of this study is to evaluate the feasibility and patient acceptability of a novel artificial intelligence (AI)-based diabetic retinopathy (DR) screening model within endocrinology outpatient settings. Adults with diabetes were recruited from two urban endocrinology outpatient clinics and single-field, non-mydriatic fundus photographs were taken and graded for referable DR ( ≥ pre-proliferative DR). Each participant underwent; (1) automated screening model; where a deep learning algorithm (DLA) provided real-time reporting of results; and (2) manual model where retinal images were transferred to a retinal grading centre and manual grading outcomes were distributed to the patient within 2 weeks of assessment. Participants completed a questionnaire on the day of examination and 1-month following assessment to determine overall satisfaction and the preferred model of care. In total, 96 participants were screened for DR and the mean assessment time for automated screening was 6.9 minutes. Ninety-six percent of participants reported that they were either satisfied or very satisfied with the automated screening model and 78% reported that they preferred the automated model over manual. The sensitivity and specificity of the DLA for correct referral was 92.3% and 93.7%, respectively. AI-based DR screening in endocrinology outpatient settings appears to be feasible and well accepted by patients.

  5. PESTEL Model Analysis and Legal Guarantee of Tourism Environmental Protection in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhiyong, Xian

    2017-08-01

    On the basis of summarizing the general situation of tourism environmental protection in China, this paper analyses the macro factors of tourism environmental protection by using PESTEL model. On this basis, this paper explores the improvement paths of tourism environmental protection based on PESTEL model. Finally, it puts forward the legal guarantee suggestion of tourism environment protection.

  6. Generalized Linear Mixed Model Analysis of Urban-Rural Differences in Social and Behavioral Factors for Colorectal Cancer Screening

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ke-Sheng; Liu, Xuefeng; Ategbole, Muyiwa; Xie, Xin; Liu, Ying; Xu, Chun; Xie, Changchun; Sha, Zhanxin

    2017-09-27

    Objective: Screening for colorectal cancer (CRC) can reduce disease incidence, morbidity, and mortality. However, few studies have investigated the urban-rural differences in social and behavioral factors influencing CRC screening. The objective of the study was to investigate the potential factors across urban-rural groups on the usage of CRC screening. Methods: A total of 38,505 adults (aged ≥40 years) were selected from the 2009 California Health Interview Survey (CHIS) data - the latest CHIS data on CRC screening. The weighted generalized linear mixed-model (WGLIMM) was used to deal with this hierarchical structure data. Weighted simple and multiple mixed logistic regression analyses in SAS ver. 9.4 were used to obtain the odds ratios (ORs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results: The overall prevalence of CRC screening was 48.1% while the prevalence in four residence groups - urban, second city, suburban, and town/rural, were 45.8%, 46.9%, 53.7% and 50.1%, respectively. The results of WGLIMM analysis showed that there was residence effect (pregression analysis revealed that age, race, marital status, education level, employment stats, binge drinking, and smoking status were associated with CRC screening (p<0.05). Stratified by residence regions, age and poverty level showed associations with CRC screening in all four residence groups. Education level was positively associated with CRC screening in second city and suburban. Infrequent binge drinking was associated with CRC screening in urban and suburban; while current smoking was a protective factor in urban and town/rural groups. Conclusions: Mixed models are useful to deal with the clustered survey data. Social factors and behavioral factors (binge drinking and smoking) were associated with CRC screening and the associations were affected by living areas such as urban and rural regions. Creative Commons Attribution License

  7. Stochastic, goal-oriented rapid impact modeling of uncertainty and environmental impacts in poorly-sampled sites using ex-situ priors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiaojun; Li, Yandong; Chang, Ching-Fu; Tan, Benjamin; Chen, Ziyang; Sege, Jon; Wang, Changhong; Rubin, Yoram

    2018-01-01

    Modeling of uncertainty associated with subsurface dynamics has long been a major research topic. Its significance is widely recognized for real-life applications. Despite the huge effort invested in the area, major obstacles still remain on the way from theory and applications. Particularly problematic here is the confusion between modeling uncertainty and modeling spatial variability, which translates into a (mis)conception, in fact an inconsistency, in that it suggests that modeling of uncertainty and modeling of spatial variability are equivalent, and as such, requiring a lot of data. This paper investigates this challenge against the backdrop of a 7 km, deep underground tunnel in China, where environmental impacts are of major concern. We approach the data challenge by pursuing a new concept for Rapid Impact Modeling (RIM), which bypasses altogether the need to estimate posterior distributions of model parameters, focusing instead on detailed stochastic modeling of impacts, conditional to all information available, including prior, ex-situ information and in-situ measurements as well. A foundational element of RIM is the construction of informative priors for target parameters using ex-situ data, relying on ensembles of well-documented sites, pre-screened for geological and hydrological similarity to the target site. The ensembles are built around two sets of similarity criteria: a physically-based set of criteria and an additional set covering epistemic criteria. In another variation to common Bayesian practice, we update the priors to obtain conditional distributions of the target (environmental impact) dependent variables and not the hydrological variables. This recognizes that goal-oriented site characterization is in many cases more useful in applications compared to parameter-oriented characterization.

  8. Screening of metal-organic frameworks for carbon dioxide capture from flue gas using a combined experimental and modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yazaydin, A Ozgür; Snurr, Randall Q; Park, Tae-Hong; Koh, Kyoungmoo; Liu, Jian; Levan, M Douglas; Benin, Annabelle I; Jakubczak, Paulina; Lanuza, Mary; Galloway, Douglas B; Low, John J; Willis, Richard R

    2009-12-30

    A diverse collection of 14 metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) was screened for CO(2) capture from flue gas using a combined experimental and modeling approach. Adsorption measurements are reported for the screened MOFs at room temperature up to 1 bar. These data are used to validate a generalized strategy for molecular modeling of CO(2) and other small molecules in MOFs. MOFs possessing a high density of open metal sites are found to adsorb significant amounts of CO(2) even at low pressure. An excellent correlation is found between the heat of adsorption and the amount of CO(2) adsorbed below 1 bar. Molecular modeling can aid in selection of adsorbents for CO(2) capture from flue gas by screening a large number of MOFs.

  9. A model for evaluating the environmental benefits of elementary school facilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Changyoon; Hong, Taehoon; Jeong, Kwangbok; Leigh, Seung-Bok

    2014-01-01

    In this study, a model that is capable of evaluating the environmental benefits of a new elementary school facility was developed. The model is composed of three steps: (i) retrieval of elementary school facilities having similar characteristics as the new elementary school facility using case-based reasoning; (ii) creation of energy consumption and material data for the benchmark elementary school facility using the retrieved similar elementary school facilities; and (iii) evaluation of the environmental benefits of the new elementary school facility by assessing and comparing the environmental impact of the new and created benchmark elementary school facility using life cycle assessment. The developed model can present the environmental benefits of a new elementary school facility in terms of monetary values using Environmental Priority Strategy 2000, a damage-oriented life cycle impact assessment method. The developed model can be used for the following: (i) as criteria for a green-building rating system; (ii) as criteria for setting the support plan and size, such as the government's incentives for promoting green-building projects; and (iii) as criteria for determining the feasibility of green building projects in key business sectors. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Lessons from patents. Using patents to measure technological change in environmental models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Popp, David

    2005-01-01

    When studying solutions to long-term environmental problems such as climate change, it is important to consider the role that technological change may play. Nonetheless, to date few economic models of environmental policy explicitly model the link between policy and technological change. There is a growing body of evidence that the incentives offered by prices and environmental regulations have a strong influence on both the creation and adoption of new technologies. In several recent papers, I have used patent data to examine the links between environmental policy and technological change. In addition, I have used the results of this research to calibrate the ENTICE model (for ENdogenous Technological change) of climate change, which links energy-related R and D to changes in the price of carbon. Drawing on my experiences from empirical studies on innovation and from modeling the climate change problem, in this paper I review some of the key lessons from recent empirical work using patents to study environmental innovation and diffusion, and discuss its implications for modeling climate change policy. I conclude by offering suggestions for future research

  11. Development of a Clinical Forecasting Model to Predict Comorbid Depression Among Diabetes Patients and an Application in Depression Screening Policy Making

    OpenAIRE

    Jin, Haomiao; Wu, Shinyi; Di Capua, Paul

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Depression is a common but often undiagnosed comorbid condition of people with diabetes. Mass screening can detect undiagnosed depression but may require significant resources and time. The objectives of this study were 1) to develop a clinical forecasting model that predicts comorbid depression among patients with diabetes and 2) to evaluate a model-based screening policy that saves resources and time by screening only patients considered as depressed by the clinical forecasting...

  12. Application of neural networks to waste site screening

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dabiri, A.E.; Garrett, M.; Kraft, T.; Hilton, J.; VanHammersveld, M.

    1993-02-01

    Waste site screening requires knowledge of the actual concentrations of hazardous materials and rates of flow around and below the site with time. The present approach consists primarily of drilling boreholes near contaminated sites and chemically analyzing the extracted physical samples and processing the data. This is expensive and time consuming. The feasibility of using neural network techniques to reduce the cost of waste site screening was investigated. Two neural network techniques, gradient descent back propagation and fully recurrent back propagation were utilized. The networks were trained with data received from Westinghouse Hanford Corporation. The results indicate that the network trained with the fully recurrent technique shows satisfactory generalization capability. The predicted results are close to the results obtained from a mathematical flow prediction model. It is possible to develop a new tool to predict the waste plume, thus substantially reducing the number of the bore sites and samplings. There are a variety of applications for this technique in environmental site screening and remediation. One of the obvious applications would be for optimum well siting. A neural network trained from the existing sampling data could be utilized to decide where would be the best position for the next bore site. Other applications are discussed in the report

  13. Working Group Reports: Working Group 1 - Software Systems Design and Implementation for Environmental Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    The purpose of the Interagency Steering Committee on Multimedia Environmental Modeling (ISCMEM) is to foster the exchange of information about environmental modeling tools, modeling frameworks, and environmental monitoring databases that are all in the public domain. It is compos...

  14. Predictive models for anti-tubercular molecules using machine learning on high-throughput biological screening datasets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Periwal, Vinita; Rajappan, Jinuraj K; Jaleel, Abdul Uc; Scaria, Vinod

    2011-11-18

    Tuberculosis is a contagious disease caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb), affecting more than two billion people around the globe and is one of the major causes of morbidity and mortality in the developing world. Recent reports suggest that Mtb has been developing resistance to the widely used anti-tubercular drugs resulting in the emergence and spread of multi drug-resistant (MDR) and extensively drug-resistant (XDR) strains throughout the world. In view of this global epidemic, there is an urgent need to facilitate fast and efficient lead identification methodologies. Target based screening of large compound libraries has been widely used as a fast and efficient approach for lead identification, but is restricted by the knowledge about the target structure. Whole organism screens on the other hand are target-agnostic and have been now widely employed as an alternative for lead identification but they are limited by the time and cost involved in running the screens for large compound libraries. This could be possibly be circumvented by using computational approaches to prioritize molecules for screening programmes. We utilized physicochemical properties of compounds to train four supervised classifiers (Naïve Bayes, Random Forest, J48 and SMO) on three publicly available bioassay screens of Mtb inhibitors and validated the robustness of the predictive models using various statistical measures. This study is a comprehensive analysis of high-throughput bioassay data for anti-tubercular activity and the application of machine learning approaches to create target-agnostic predictive models for anti-tubercular agents.

  15. Predictive models for anti-tubercular molecules using machine learning on high-throughput biological screening datasets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Periwal Vinita

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Tuberculosis is a contagious disease caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb, affecting more than two billion people around the globe and is one of the major causes of morbidity and mortality in the developing world. Recent reports suggest that Mtb has been developing resistance to the widely used anti-tubercular drugs resulting in the emergence and spread of multi drug-resistant (MDR and extensively drug-resistant (XDR strains throughout the world. In view of this global epidemic, there is an urgent need to facilitate fast and efficient lead identification methodologies. Target based screening of large compound libraries has been widely used as a fast and efficient approach for lead identification, but is restricted by the knowledge about the target structure. Whole organism screens on the other hand are target-agnostic and have been now widely employed as an alternative for lead identification but they are limited by the time and cost involved in running the screens for large compound libraries. This could be possibly be circumvented by using computational approaches to prioritize molecules for screening programmes. Results We utilized physicochemical properties of compounds to train four supervised classifiers (Naïve Bayes, Random Forest, J48 and SMO on three publicly available bioassay screens of Mtb inhibitors and validated the robustness of the predictive models using various statistical measures. Conclusions This study is a comprehensive analysis of high-throughput bioassay data for anti-tubercular activity and the application of machine learning approaches to create target-agnostic predictive models for anti-tubercular agents.

  16. Development of an environmental impact model for the steel industry in Libya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaghinin, Mansur Salem

    The global demand for steel is rising due to the infrastructural development of emergent economies in countries such as India, China, Thailand and Libya. Consequently, global steel production has increased dramatically and is expected to grow further in the future. Processing iron and steel is associated with a number of sustainable development challenges, including various economic, environmental and social issues. The increasing prominence of environmental issues in international and national political discourse, including the developing countries, means that stakeholders demand that manufacturers minimise the negative impacts of their operations.The steel industry must be able to measure and assess its environmental impacts and demonstrate continuous improvements. This requires an environmental management strategy to manage and minimise impacts on the environment. This study focuses on developing an environmental impacts model in steel industry to investigate the most important environmental parameters and their importance in order to mitigate environmental impacts.Based on the literature review and the elements that are considered as waste (derived from the waste survey in Libyan iron and steel industry), the potential environmental impacts of the steel industry are identified as criteria and sub-criteria. Then, a model is built using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) software based on the identified criteria and sub-criteria.The model also illustrates the overall goal which is creating environmental impacts model for steel industry, in addition, criteria and sub-criteria are listed to clarify the situation and make the analysis clearer and understandable. Pair wise comparisons are used to derive accurate ratio scale priorities.The results are analysed and presented as prioritised list of environmental impacts. Moreover, a series of sensitivity analyses are conducted to investigate the impact of changing the priority of the criteria on the alternatives

  17. In vitro microfluidic models of tumor microenvironment to screen transport of drugs and nanoparticles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozcelikkale, Altug; Moon, Hye-Ran; Linnes, Michael; Han, Bumsoo

    2017-09-01

    Advances in nanotechnology have enabled numerous types of nanoparticles (NPs) to improve drug delivery to tumors. While many NP systems have been proposed, their clinical translation has been less than anticipated primarily due to failure of current preclinical evaluation techniques to adequately model the complex interactions between the NP and physiological barriers of tumor microenvironment. This review focuses on microfluidic tumor models for characterization of delivery efficacy and toxicity of cancer nanomedicine. Microfluidics offer significant advantages over traditional macroscale cell cultures by enabling recapitulation of tumor microenvironment through precise control of physiological cues such as hydrostatic pressure, shear stress, oxygen, and nutrient gradients. Microfluidic systems have recently started to be adapted for screening of drugs and NPs under physiologically relevant settings. So far the two primary application areas of microfluidics in this area have been high-throughput screening using traditional culture settings such as single cells or multicellular tumor spheroids, and mimicry of tumor microenvironment for study of cancer-related cell-cell and cell-matrix interactions. These microfluidic technologies are also useful in modeling specific steps in NP delivery to tumor and characterize NP transport properties and outcomes by systematic variation of physiological conditions. Ultimately, it will be possible to design drug-screening platforms uniquely tailored for individual patient physiology using microfluidics. These in vitro models can contribute to development of precision medicine by enabling rapid and patient-specific evaluation of cancer nanomedicine. WIREs Nanomed Nanobiotechnol 2017, 9:e1460. doi: 10.1002/wnan.1460 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  18. Model comparisons and genetic and environmental parameter ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    arc

    Model comparisons and genetic and environmental parameter estimates of growth and the ... breeding strategies and for accurate breeding value estimation. The objectives ...... Sci. 23, 72-76. Van Wyk, J.B., Fair, M.D. & Cloete, S.W.P., 2003.

  19. Modelling food-web mediated effects of hydrological variability and environmental flows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robson, Barbara J; Lester, Rebecca E; Baldwin, Darren S; Bond, Nicholas R; Drouart, Romain; Rolls, Robert J; Ryder, Darren S; Thompson, Ross M

    2017-11-01

    Environmental flows are designed to enhance aquatic ecosystems through a variety of mechanisms; however, to date most attention has been paid to the effects on habitat quality and life-history triggers, especially for fish and vegetation. The effects of environmental flows on food webs have so far received little attention, despite food-web thinking being fundamental to understanding of river ecosystems. Understanding environmental flows in a food-web context can help scientists and policy-makers better understand and manage outcomes of flow alteration and restoration. In this paper, we consider mechanisms by which flow variability can influence and alter food webs, and place these within a conceptual and numerical modelling framework. We also review the strengths and weaknesses of various approaches to modelling the effects of hydrological management on food webs. Although classic bioenergetic models such as Ecopath with Ecosim capture many of the key features required, other approaches, such as biogeochemical ecosystem modelling, end-to-end modelling, population dynamic models, individual-based models, graph theory models, and stock assessment models are also relevant. In many cases, a combination of approaches will be useful. We identify current challenges and new directions in modelling food-web responses to hydrological variability and environmental flow management. These include better integration of food-web and hydraulic models, taking physiologically-based approaches to food quality effects, and better representation of variations in space and time that may create ecosystem control points. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Prediction of Phase Behavior of Spray-Dried Amorphous Solid Dispersions: Assessment of Thermodynamic Models, Standard Screening Methods and a Novel Atomization Screening Device with Regard to Prediction Accuracy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aymeric Ousset

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The evaluation of drug–polymer miscibility in the early phase of drug development is essential to ensure successful amorphous solid dispersion (ASD manufacturing. This work investigates the comparison of thermodynamic models, conventional experimental screening methods (solvent casting, quench cooling, and a novel atomization screening device based on their ability to predict drug–polymer miscibility, solid state properties (Tg value and width, and adequate polymer selection during the development of spray-dried amorphous solid dispersions (SDASDs. Binary ASDs of four drugs and seven polymers were produced at 20:80, 40:60, 60:40, and 80:20 (w/w. Samples were systematically analyzed using modulated differential scanning calorimetry (mDSC and X-ray powder diffraction (XRPD. Principal component analysis (PCA was used to qualitatively assess the predictability of screening methods with regards to SDASD development. Poor correlation was found between theoretical models and experimentally-obtained results. Additionally, the limited ability of usual screening methods to predict the miscibility of SDASDs did not guarantee the appropriate selection of lead excipient for the manufacturing of robust SDASDs. Contrary to standard approaches, our novel screening device allowed the selection of optimal polymer and drug loading and established insight into the final properties and performance of SDASDs at an early stage, therefore enabling the optimization of the scaled-up late-stage development.

  1. Screening sensitivity theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oblow, E.M.; Perey, F.G.

    1984-01-01

    A comprehensive rigorous theory is developed for screening sensitivity coefficients in largescale modeling applications. The theory uses Bayesian inference and group theory to establish a probabilistic framework for solving an underdetermined system of linear equations. The underdetermined problem is directly related to statistical screening sensitivity theory as developed in recent years. Several examples of the new approach to screening are worked out in detail and comparisons are made with statistical approaches to the problem. The drawbacks of these latter methods are discussed at some length

  2. Collaborative Modeling of the Benefits and Harms Associated With Different U.S. Breast Cancer Screening Strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandelblatt, Jeanne S; Stout, Natasha K; Schechter, Clyde B; van den Broek, Jeroen J; Miglioretti, Diana L; Krapcho, Martin; Trentham-Dietz, Amy; Munoz, Diego; Lee, Sandra J; Berry, Donald A; van Ravesteyn, Nicolien T; Alagoz, Oguzhan; Kerlikowske, Karla; Tosteson, Anna N A; Near, Aimee M; Hoeffken, Amanda; Chang, Yaojen; Heijnsdijk, Eveline A; Chisholm, Gary; Huang, Xuelin; Huang, Hui; Ergun, Mehmet Ali; Gangnon, Ronald; Sprague, Brian L; Plevritis, Sylvia; Feuer, Eric; de Koning, Harry J; Cronin, Kathleen A

    2016-02-16

    Controversy persists about optimal mammography screening strategies. To evaluate screening outcomes, taking into account advances in mammography and treatment of breast cancer. Collaboration of 6 simulation models using national data on incidence, digital mammography performance, treatment effects, and other-cause mortality. United States. Average-risk U.S. female population and subgroups with varying risk, breast density, or comorbidity. Eight strategies differing by age at which screening starts (40, 45, or 50 years) and screening interval (annual, biennial, and hybrid [annual for women in their 40s and biennial thereafter]). All strategies assumed 100% adherence and stopped at age 74 years. Benefits (breast cancer-specific mortality reduction, breast cancer deaths averted, life-years, and quality-adjusted life-years); number of mammograms used; harms (false-positive results, benign biopsies, and overdiagnosis); and ratios of harms (or use) and benefits (efficiency) per 1000 screens. Biennial strategies were consistently the most efficient for average-risk women. Biennial screening from age 50 to 74 years avoided a median of 7 breast cancer deaths versus no screening; annual screening from age 40 to 74 years avoided an additional 3 deaths, but yielded 1988 more false-positive results and 11 more overdiagnoses per 1000 women screened. Annual screening from age 50 to 74 years was inefficient (similar benefits, but more harms than other strategies). For groups with a 2- to 4-fold increased risk, annual screening from age 40 years had similar harms and benefits as screening average-risk women biennially from 50 to 74 years. For groups with moderate or severe comorbidity, screening could stop at age 66 to 68 years. Other imaging technologies, polygenic risk, and nonadherence were not considered. Biennial screening for breast cancer is efficient for average-risk populations. Decisions about starting ages and intervals will depend on population characteristics and the

  3. Screening for gestational diabetes mellitus by a model based on risk indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Dorte Møller; Mølsted-Pedersen, Lars; Beck-Nielsen, Henning

    2003-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: This study was performed to prospectively evaluate a screening model for gestational diabetes mellitus on the basis of clinical risk indicators. STUDY DESIGN: In a prospective multicenter study with 5235 consecutive pregnant women, diagnostic testing with a 2-hour 75-g oral glucose...... of the results from tested women to the whole group in question, a 2.4% prevalence of gestational diabetes mellitus was calculated. Sensitivity and specificity of the model was 80.6 (73.7-87.6) and 64.8 (63.5-66.1), respectively (95% CIs). CONCLUSION: Under ideal conditions, sensitivity of the model...

  4. Population Screening for Hereditary Haemochromatosis in Australia: Construction and Validation of a State-Transition Cost-Effectiveness Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Graaff, Barbara; Si, Lei; Neil, Amanda L; Yee, Kwang Chien; Sanderson, Kristy; Gurrin, Lyle C; Palmer, Andrew J

    2017-03-01

    HFE-associated haemochromatosis, the most common monogenic disorder amongst populations of northern European ancestry, is characterised by iron overload. Excess iron is stored in parenchymal tissues, leading to morbidity and mortality. Population screening programmes are likely to improve early diagnosis, thereby decreasing associated disease. Our aim was to develop and validate a health economics model of screening using utilities and costs from a haemochromatosis cohort. A state-transition model was developed with Markov states based on disease severity. Australian males (aged 30 years) and females (aged 45 years) of northern European ancestry were the target populations. The screening strategy was the status quo approach in Australia; the model was run over a lifetime horizon. Costs were estimated from the government perspective and reported in 2015 Australian dollars ($A); costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were discounted at 5% annually. Model validity was assessed using goodness-of-fit analyses. Second-order Monte-Carlo simulation was used to account for uncertainty in multiple parameters. For validity, the model reproduced mortality, life expectancy (LE) and prevalence rates in line with published data. LE for C282Y homozygote males and females were 49.9 and 40.2 years, respectively, slightly lower than population rates. Mean (95% confidence interval) QALYS were 15.7 (7.7-23.7) for males and 14.4 (6.7-22.1) for females. Mean discounted lifetime costs for C282Y homozygotes were $A22,737 (3670-85,793) for males and $A13,840 (1335-67,377) for females. Sensitivity analyses revealed discount rates and prevalence had the greatest impacts on outcomes. We have developed a transparent, validated health economics model of C282Y homozygote haemochromatosis. The model will be useful to decision makers to identify cost-effective screening strategies.

  5. The application of DEA model in enterprise environmental performance auditing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, F.; Zhu, L. Y.; Zhang, J. D.; Liu, C. Y.; Qu, Z. G.; Xiao, M. S.

    2017-01-01

    As a part of society, enterprises have an inescapable responsibility for environmental protection and governance. This article discusses the feasibility and necessity of enterprises environmental performance auditing and uses DEA model calculate the environmental performance of Haier for example. The most of reference data are selected and sorted from Haier’s environmental reportspublished in 2008, 2009, 2011 and 2015, and some of the data from some published articles and fieldwork. All the calculation results are calculated by DEAP software andhave a high credibility. The analysis results of this article can give corporate managements an idea about using environmental performance auditing to adjust their corporate environmental investments capital quota and change their company’s environmental strategies.

  6. Modeling Of Construction Noise For Environmental Impact Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed F. Hamoda

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available This study measured the noise levels generated at different construction sites in reference to the stage of construction and the equipment used, and examined the methods to predict such noise in order to assess the environmental impact of noise. It included 33 construction sites in Kuwait and used artificial neural networks (ANNs for the prediction of noise. A back-propagation neural network (BPNN model was compared with a general regression neural network (GRNN model. The results obtained indicated that the mean equivalent noise level was 78.7 dBA which exceeds the threshold limit. The GRNN model was superior to the BPNN model in its accuracy of predicting construction noise due to its ability to train quickly on sparse data sets. Over 93% of the predictions were within 5% of the observed values. The mean absolute error between the predicted and observed data was only 2 dBA. The ANN modeling proved to be a useful technique for noise predictions required in the assessment of environmental impact of construction activities.

  7. Application of Environmental Input-Output Analysis for Corporate and Product Environmental Footprints—Learnings from Three Cases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louise Laumann Kjaer

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available An increasing number of companies are expanding their environmental impact reduction targets and strategies to include their supply chains or whole product life cycles. In this paper, we demonstrate and evaluate an approach, where we used a hybrid Environmental Input-Output (EIO database as a basis for corporate and product environmental footprint accounts, including the entire supply chain. We present three cases, where this approach was applied. Case study 1 describes the creation of total corporate carbon footprint accounts for three Danish regional healthcare organisations. In case study 2, the approach was used as basis for an Environmental Profit and Loss account for the healthcare company, Novo Nordisk A/S. Case study 3 used the approach for life cycle assessment of a tanker ship. We conclude that EIO-based analyses offer a holistic view of environmental performance, provide a foundation for decision-making within reasonable time and cost, and for companies with a large upstream environmental footprint, the analysis supports advancing their sustainability agenda to include supply chain impacts. However, there are implications when going from screening to implementing the results, including how to measure and monitor the effect of the different actions. Thus, future research should include more detailed models to support decision-making.

  8. An Environmental Management Maturity Model of Construction Programs Using the AHP-Entropy Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Libiao Bai

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The accelerating process of urbanization in China has led to considerable opportunities for the development of construction projects, however, environmental issues have become an important constraint on the implementation of these projects. To quantitatively describe the environmental management capabilities of such projects, this paper proposes a 2-dimensional Environmental Management Maturity Model of Construction Program (EMMMCP based on an analysis of existing projects, group management theory and a management maturity model. In this model, a synergetic process was included to compensate for the lack of consideration of synergies in previous studies, and it was involved in the construction of the first dimension, i.e., the environmental management index system. The second dimension, i.e., the maturity level of environment management, was then constructed by redefining the hierarchical characteristics of construction program (CP environmental management maturity. Additionally, a mathematical solution to this proposed model was derived via the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP-entropy approach. To verify the effectiveness and feasibility of this proposed model, a computational experiment was conducted, and the results show that this approach could not only measure the individual levels of different processes, but also achieve the most important objective of providing a reference for stakeholders when making decisions on the environmental management of construction program, which reflects this model is reasonable for evaluating the level of environmental management maturity in CP. To our knowledge, this paper is the first study to evaluate the environmental management maturity levels of CP, which would fill the gap between project program management and environmental management and provide a reference for relevant management personnel to enhance their environmental management capabilities.

  9. Environmental Measurement-While-Drilling system for real-time field screening of contaminants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lockwood, G.J.; Normann, R.A.; Bishop, L.B.; Floran, R.J.; Williams, C.V.

    1995-01-01

    Sampling during environmental drilling is essential to fully characterize the spatial distribution and migration of near surface contaminants. However, the analysis of these samples is not only expensive, but can take weeks or months when sent to an off-site laboratory. In contrast, measurement-while-drilling (MWD) screening capability could save money and valuable time by quickly distinguishing between contaminated and uncontaminated areas. Real-time measurements provided by a MVM system would enable on-the-spot decisions to be made regarding sampling strategies, enhance worker safety, and provide the added flexibility of being able to ''steer'' the drill bit in or out hazardous zones. During measurement-while-drilling, down-hole sensors are located behind the drill bit and linked by a rapid data transmission system to a computer at the surface. As drilling proceeds, data are collected on the nature and extent of the subsurface contamination in real-time. The down-hole sensor is a Geiger-Mueller tube (GMT) gamma radiation detector. In addition to the GMT signal, the MWD system monitors these required down-hole voltages and two temperatures associated with the detector assembly. The Gamma Ray Detection System (GRDS) and electronics package are discussed in as well as the results of the field test. Finally, our conclusions and discussion of future work are presented

  10. Digital I and C systems in nuclear power plants. Risk-screening of environmental stressors and a comparison of hardware unavailability with an existing analog system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hassan, M.; Vesely, W.E.

    1998-01-01

    In this report, we present a screening study to identify environmental stressors for digital instrumentation and control (I ampersand C) systems in a nuclear power plant (NPP) which can be potentially risk-significant, and compare the hardware unavailability of such a system with that of its existing analog counterpart. The stressors evaluated are temperature, humidity, vibration, radiation, electro-magnetic interference (EMI), and smoke. The results of risk-screening for an example plant, subject to some bounding assumptions and based on relative changes in plant risk (core damage frequency impacts of the stressors), indicate that humidity, EMI from lightning, and smoke can be potentially risk-significant. Risk from other sources of EMI could not be evaluated for a lack of data. Risk from temperature appears to be insignificant as that from the assumed levels of vibrations. A comparison of the hardware unavailability of the existing analog Safety Injection Actuation System (SIAS) in the example plant with that of an assumed digital upgrade of the system indicates that system unavailability may be more sensitive to the level of redundancy in elements of the digital system than to the environmental and operational variations involved. The findings of this study can be used to focus activities relating to the regulatory basis for digital I ampersand C upgrades in NPPs, including identification of dominant stressors, data-gathering, equipment qualification, and requirements to limit the effects of environmental stressors. 30 refs., 8 figs., 26 tabs

  11. Integrative Models in Environmental Planning and Policy Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kyler, David Clinton

    1984-01-01

    Discusses conceptual models of thought that have recently emerged to confront the conventional approaches to analysis and solution to complex environmental problems. In addition to a critical attack on the tradition of specialization and reductionism, several models are summarized that originated from ecology, cybernetics, and system theory. (BC)

  12. Cost Effectiveness of Screening Colonoscopy Depends on Adequate Bowel Preparation Rates - A Modeling Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James Kingsley

    Full Text Available Inadequate bowel preparation during screening colonoscopy necessitates repeating colonoscopy. Studies suggest inadequate bowel preparation rates of 20-60%. This increases the cost of colonoscopy for our society.The aim of this study is to determine the impact of inadequate bowel preparation rate on the cost effectiveness of colonoscopy compared to other screening strategies for colorectal cancer (CRC.A microsimulation model of CRC screening strategies for the general population at average risk for CRC. The strategies include fecal immunochemistry test (FIT every year, colonoscopy every ten years, sigmoidoscopy every five years, or stool DNA test every 3 years. The screening could be performed at private practice offices, outpatient hospitals, and ambulatory surgical centers.At the current assumed inadequate bowel preparation rate of 25%, the cost of colonoscopy as a screening strategy is above society's willingness to pay (<$50,000/QALY. Threshold analysis demonstrated that an inadequate bowel preparation rate of 13% or less is necessary before colonoscopy is considered more cost effective than FIT. At inadequate bowel preparation rates of 25%, colonoscopy is still more cost effective compared to sigmoidoscopy and stool DNA test. Sensitivity analysis of all inputs adjusted by ±10% showed incremental cost effectiveness ratio values were influenced most by the specificity, adherence, and sensitivity of FIT and colonoscopy.Screening colonoscopy is not a cost effective strategy when compared with fecal immunochemical test, as long as the inadequate bowel preparation rate is greater than 13%.

  13. Streamlining environmental product declarations: a stage model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lefebvre, Elisabeth; Lefebvre, Louis A.; Talbot, Stephane; Le Hen, Gael

    2001-02-01

    General public environmental awareness and education is increasing, therefore stimulating the demand for reliable, objective and comparable information about products' environmental performances. The recently published standard series ISO 14040 and ISO 14025 are normalizing the preparation of Environmental Product Declarations (EPDs) containing comprehensive information relevant to a product's environmental impact during its life cycle. So far, only a few environmentally leading manufacturing organizations have experimented the preparation of EPDs (mostly from Europe), demonstrating its great potential as a marketing weapon. However the preparation of EPDs is a complex process, requiring collection and analysis of massive amounts of information coming from disparate sources (suppliers, sub-contractors, etc.). In a foreseeable future, the streamlining of the EPD preparation process will require product manufacturers to adapt their information systems (ERP, MES, SCADA) in order to make them capable of gathering, and transmitting the appropriate environmental information. It also requires strong functional integration all along the product supply chain in order to ensure that all the information is made available in a standardized and timely manner. The goal of the present paper is two fold: first to propose a transitional model towards green supply chain management and EPD preparation; second to identify key technologies and methodologies allowing to streamline the EPD process and subsequently the transition toward sustainable product development

  14. A model to evaluate the costs and clinical effectiveness of human papilloma virus screening compared with annual papanicolaou cytology in Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petry, Karl Ulrich; Barth, Cordula; Wasem, Jürgen; Neumann, Anja

    2017-05-01

    We modelled human papilloma virus (HPV) primary screening scenarios compared with Pap cytology to evaluate clinical effectiveness and projected annual costs in Germany. A Markov cohort model was built to compare the budget impact of annual Pap cytology with different 5-yearly HPV screening scenarios: (1) a positive HPV test followed by Pap cytology; (2) a positive HPV test followed by p16/Ki-67 dual-stained cytology; (3) a positive HPV test followed by colposcopy if HPV-16/18-positive or p16/Ki-67 dual-stained cytology if positive for other subtypes; (4) co-testing with HPV and Pap. Screening scenarios were based on a 10-year horizon. All HPV screening scenarios in the model were associated with fewer deaths from missed diagnosis of cervical cancer compared with Pap screening; 10-year totals n=172-344 (1.5-3 per 100,000) versus n=477 (4.1 per 100,000), respectively. Total annual costs were lower with HPV screening than Pap cytology. The projected average annual cost for HPV screening ranged from €117 million to €136 million compared with €177 million for Pap screening, representing annual savings of €41-60 million. The greatest clinical impact was achieved with primary HPV screening (with genotyping) followed by colposcopy for HPV 16/18-positive women or p16/Ki-67 dual-stained cytology for women positive for other HPV subtypes. Screening strategies including primary HPV testing for high-risk subtypes (HPV-16/18) in conjunction with p16/Ki-67 dual-stained cytology can improve the detection of cervical cancer at a lower total annual cost than conventional Pap cytology screening. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  15. High-resolution modeling of thermal thresholds and environmental influences on coral bleaching for local and regional reef management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumagai, Naoki H; Yamano, Hiroya

    2018-01-01

    Coral reefs are one of the world's most threatened ecosystems, with global and local stressors contributing to their decline. Excessive sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) can cause coral bleaching, resulting in coral death and decreases in coral cover. A SST threshold of 1 °C over the climatological maximum is widely used to predict coral bleaching. In this study, we refined thermal indices predicting coral bleaching at high-spatial resolution (1 km) by statistically optimizing thermal thresholds, as well as considering other environmental influences on bleaching such as ultraviolet (UV) radiation, water turbidity, and cooling effects. We used a coral bleaching dataset derived from the web-based monitoring system Sango Map Project, at scales appropriate for the local and regional conservation of Japanese coral reefs. We recorded coral bleaching events in the years 2004-2016 in Japan. We revealed the influence of multiple factors on the ability to predict coral bleaching, including selection of thermal indices, statistical optimization of thermal thresholds, quantification of multiple environmental influences, and use of multiple modeling methods (generalized linear models and random forests). After optimization, differences in predictive ability among thermal indices were negligible. Thermal index, UV radiation, water turbidity, and cooling effects were important predictors of the occurrence of coral bleaching. Predictions based on the best model revealed that coral reefs in Japan have experienced recent and widespread bleaching. A practical method to reduce bleaching frequency by screening UV radiation was also demonstrated in this paper.

  16. Environmental Control Subsystem Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laidlaw, Jacob; Zelik, Jonathan

    2017-01-01

    Kennedy Space Center's Launch Pad 39B, part of Launch Complex 39, is currently undergoing construction to prepare it for NASA's Space Launch System missions. The Environmental Control Subsystem, which provides the vehicle with an air or nitrogen gas environment, required development of its local and remote display screens. The remote displays, developed by NASA contractors and previous interns, were developed without complete functionality; the remote displays were revised, adding functionality to over 90 displays. For the local displays, multiple test procedures were developed to assess the functionality of the screens, as well as verify requirements. One local display screen was also developed.

  17. Study on the development of geological environmental model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsujimoto, Keiichi; Shinohara, Yoshinori; Ueta, Shinzo; Saito, Shigeyuki; Kawamura, Yuji; Tomiyama, Shingo; Ohashi, Toyo

    2002-03-01

    The safety performance assessment was carried out in potential geological environment in the conventional research and development of geological disposal, but the importance of safety assessment based on the repository design and scenario considering the concrete geological environment will increase in the future. The research considering the link of the major three fields of geological disposal, investigation of geological environment, repository design, and safety performance assessment, is the contemporary worldwide research theme. Hence it is important to organize information flow that contains the series of information process form the data production to analysis in the three fields, and to systemize the knowledge base that unifies the information flow hierarchically. The purpose of the research is to support the development of the unified analysis system for geological disposal. The development technology for geological environmental model studied for the second progress report by JNC are organized and examined for the purpose of developing database system with considering the suitability for the deep underground research facility. The geological environmental investigation technology and building methodology for geological structure and hydro geological structure models are organized and systemized. Furthermore, the quality assurance methods in building geological environment models are examined. Information which is used and stored in the unified analysis system are examined to design database structure of the system based on the organized methodology for building geological environmental model. The graphic processing function for data stored in the unified database are examined. furthermore, future research subjects for the development of detail models for geological disposal are surveyed to organize safety performance system. (author)

  18. The dynamic modeling and design improvement of a piezoelectric exciter of a touch screen device for efficient tactile feedback

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Young-Min; Kim, Kwang-Joon

    2011-01-01

    Piezoelectric exciters have been receiving greater attention recently as a vibration source for tactile feedback in devices with touch screens, such as a mobile phones, in place of DC motors due to lower energy consumption and smaller volume. Their insufficient excitation level, however, still remains a problem. In this paper, dynamic modeling and design improvement of a piezoelectric exciter are presented. The excitation performance is defined as the acceleration response at the center of a touch screen per electric power and to be maximized around 250 Hz where the index finger is most sensitive. The piezoelectric exciter consists of a z-shaped metal beam, a piezoelectric layer on the long horizontal segment and an adhesive layer between the short horizontal segment and the touch screen. Assuming that the piezoelectric exciter is attached onto a rigid ground due to its low mechanical impedance compared with that of the touch screen, the piezoelectric exciter is dynamically modeled by applying Hamilton's principle, where the adhesive layer is treated as a distributed stiffness. The touch screen is modeled approximately as a simply supported beam such that it may have the same fundamental natural frequency and bending stiffness as the screen based on measurements. The performance improvement is focused on the change of five geometric parameters of the piezoelectric exciter: length of the long horizontal segment, thickness of the piezoelectric layer, thickness of the elastic metal layer, width of the beams and tip mass. The procedure to improve the performance of the piezoelectric exciter via dynamic modeling is presented together with experimental results on a prototype. Effectiveness of the design modification and limitations in practice are further discussed as well

  19. Mutation-Guided Unbiased Modeling of the Fat Sensor GPR119 for High-Yield Agonist Screening

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Norn, Christoffer; Pedersen, Maria Hauge; Engelstoft, Maja S.

    2015-01-01

    and is consistent with the structure-activity relationship for a large no. of AR231453 analogs. Another key property of the refined models is their success in sepg. active ligands from decoys in a large-scale virtual screening. These results demonstrate that mutation-guided receptor modeling can provide predictions...

  20. An integrated model for the Environmental Impact Assessment of Highways in China

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cai, Hao

    2011-01-01

    In China, environmental issues caused by construction and operation of highway catch more and more attention, and thus environmental impact assessment of highway has become an important part of feasibility study. According to the Specifications for Environmental Impact Assessment of Highways...... in the People's Republic of China, this paper proposes an integrated model for Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) of highway. The model has two main characteristics. Firstly, the whole highway is divided into several sections, and then weight of each section is distributed by its importance. Secondly...

  1. A theoretical model predicting the intensity of emitted light per unit of x-ray exposure in radiographic screens

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tsoukos, S; Kateris, A; Kalivas, N; Spyrou, G; Panayiotakis, G [Department of Medical Physics, School of Medicine, University of Patras, 265 00 pAtras (Greece); Kandarakis, I; Gavouras, D [Department of Medical Instrumentation Technology, Technological Educational Institution of Athens (Greece)

    1999-12-31

    A theoretical model predicting the intensity of light emitted by x-ray imaging phosphor screens per unit of area and time over incident x-ray flux (absolute efficiency) was developed. The model takes into account : A) the structure of the screens which consists of luminescent grains embedded in a binding matrix. B) the direct deposition of energy by x-ray absorption effects.. C) the re-absorption of K fluorescence characteristic x-rays produced when the x-ray energy exceeds the energy of the K absorption edge of the phosphor material. To test the model a set of (Gd,La)2O2S:Tb phosphor screens was prepared by sedimentation in the laboratory. Experimental absolute efficiency data were obtained at x-ray tube voltage range from 40 to 160 kVp. The coincidence between experimental and theoretical results were satisfactory. (authors) 7 refs., 4 figs.

  2. A discrete-space urban model with environmental amenities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liaila Tajibaeva; Robert G. Haight; Stephen Polasky

    2008-01-01

    This paper analyzes the effects of providing environmental amenities associated with open space in a discrete-space urban model and characterizes optimal provision of open space across a metropolitan area. The discrete-space model assumes distinct neighborhoods in which developable land is homogeneous within a neighborhood but heterogeneous across neighborhoods. Open...

  3. Concepts, methods and models to assess environmental impact

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pentreath, R.J.

    2002-01-01

    The environmental impact of chemicals generally in the environment is a subject that has been approached in recent years in ways that are different in concept and practice. They range from chemical 'toxicity' and 'residual' risk assessments based on individuals, to broader based, ecological risk assessments. At the same time, approaches to considering what in the environment should be protected, and how, has also changed. Approaches to this subject vary from strict conservation of identified species and areas, to the more general concepts of wishing to maintain the biological diversity within and amongst all species and habitats, and of protecting large habitat areas against irreversible human damage. Against this background, approaches to the issue of the possible impact of radionuclides in the environment over the last decade or so have centred around the various statements made by the ICRP; either attempting to support them, or seeking to compensate for their perceived deficiencies. There have been arguments that, because man is an integral part of 'the environment', and is afforded such a high level of protection, then all other components of it would be axiomatically protected. There have also been calculations to demonstrate that, in hypothetical situations, if radionuclide concentrations in the environment were such that the 1 mSv a -1 dose limit to man was not exceeded, then the concentrations of radionuclides in the animals and plants in their food chain would therefore receive dose-rates less than those likely to cause them 'harm' at the population level. Some countries have been more direct. In the USA, dose 'standards' for the protection of populations of all aquatic animals have been introduced, and consideration is being given to the introduction of dose 'standards' for populations of all terrestrial plants and animals. The introduction of a set of 'no effects' dose-rate screening reference levels for different types of fauna, to be applied to

  4. Environmental Pathway Models-Ground-Water Modeling in Support of Remedial Decision Making at Sites Contaminated with Radioactive Material

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Joint Interagency Environmental Pathway Modeling Working Group wrote this report to promote appropriate and consistent use of mathematical environmental models in the remediation and restoration of sites contaminated by radioactive substances.

  5. Environmental Governance as a Model of Environmental Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Budi Kristianto

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The concept of environmental governance does not promise practical solutions and provides short guidance in solving intertwined environmental problems in Indonesia. But at least environmental concept is useful when we try to realize environmental management in Indonesia currently. The worst is that the mistake has become routine manifesting in pragmatism in environmental management. Before it all too late, it is better that we keep in mind a German proverb in the beginning of this writing, which more or less, means “ we do not know what the future brings, but we know that we should act.”

  6. The ‘grey’ assessment practice of IA screening: Prevalence, influence and applied rationale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bidstrup, Morten

    2017-01-01

    Research focusing on the practices surrounding screening in Impact Assessment (IA) is limited. Yet, it has been found that development proposals sometimes are adjusted through an informal dialog with IA practitioners prior to or during screening. Such practice is often referred to as ‘grey IA’ in Denmark. This article explores the prevalence, influence and applied rationale of grey IA. Through a questionnaire, data was collected from 121 IA practitioners working within the fields of environmental impact assessment and strategic environmental assessment. It was found that grey IA is a common practice, which influences the outcomes of formal screening procedures through consideration of impacts on neighbours and spatial zones of protection. Grey IA is to some extent motivated by the opportunity to save the resources required for full-scale IA, but an additional ‘green’ rationale also exists. Grey IA may influence the effectiveness of IA systems, but further research is needed before any conclusions can be made. - Highlights: • Screening procedures may function as an informal, ‘grey’ assessment. • Grey assessment is common and influences formal screening outcomes. • Grey assessment is motivated by an opportunity to cut IA costs. • Yet, an environmental, ‘green’ rationale for grey assessment also exists.

  7. The ‘grey’ assessment practice of IA screening: Prevalence, influence and applied rationale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bidstrup, Morten, E-mail: Bidstrup@plan.aau.dk

    2017-01-15

    Research focusing on the practices surrounding screening in Impact Assessment (IA) is limited. Yet, it has been found that development proposals sometimes are adjusted through an informal dialog with IA practitioners prior to or during screening. Such practice is often referred to as ‘grey IA’ in Denmark. This article explores the prevalence, influence and applied rationale of grey IA. Through a questionnaire, data was collected from 121 IA practitioners working within the fields of environmental impact assessment and strategic environmental assessment. It was found that grey IA is a common practice, which influences the outcomes of formal screening procedures through consideration of impacts on neighbours and spatial zones of protection. Grey IA is to some extent motivated by the opportunity to save the resources required for full-scale IA, but an additional ‘green’ rationale also exists. Grey IA may influence the effectiveness of IA systems, but further research is needed before any conclusions can be made. - Highlights: • Screening procedures may function as an informal, ‘grey’ assessment. • Grey assessment is common and influences formal screening outcomes. • Grey assessment is motivated by an opportunity to cut IA costs. • Yet, an environmental, ‘green’ rationale for grey assessment also exists.

  8. Associations between screen time and physical activity among Spanish adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serrano-Sanchez, Jose A; Martí-Trujillo, Sara; Lera-Navarro, Angela; Dorado-García, Cecilia; González-Henríquez, Juan J; Sanchís-Moysi, Joaquín

    2011-01-01

    Excessive time in front of a single or several screens could explain a displacement of physical activity. The present study aimed at determining whether screen-time is associated with a reduced level of moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) in Spanish adolescents living in favorable environmental conditions. A multi-stage stratified random sampling method was used to select 3503 adolescents (12-18 years old) from the school population of Gran Canaria, Spain. MVPA, screen-time in front of television, computer, video game console and portable console was assessed in the classroom by fulfilling a standardized questionnaire. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses adjusted by a set of social-environmental variables were carried out. Forty-six percent of girls (95% CI±2.3%) and 26% of boys (95% CI±2.1%) did not meet the MVPA recommendations for adolescents. Major gender differences were observed in the time devoted to vigorous PA, video games and the total time spent on screen-based activities. Boys who reported 4 hours•week(-1) or more to total screen-time showed a 64% (OR = 0.61, 95% CI, 0.44-0.86) increased risk of failing to achieve the recommended adolescent MVPA level. Participation in organized physical activities and sports competitions were more strongly associated with MVPA than screen-related behaviors. No single screen-related behavior explained the reduction of MVPA in adolescents. However, the total time accumulated through several screen-related behaviors was negatively associated with MVPA level in boys. This association could be due to lower availability of time for exercise as the time devoted to sedentary screen-time activities increases. Participation in organized physical activities seems to counteract the negative impact of excessive time in front of screens on physical activity.

  9. Associations between screen time and physical activity among Spanish adolescents.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose A Serrano-Sanchez

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Excessive time in front of a single or several screens could explain a displacement of physical activity. The present study aimed at determining whether screen-time is associated with a reduced level of moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA in Spanish adolescents living in favorable environmental conditions. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A multi-stage stratified random sampling method was used to select 3503 adolescents (12-18 years old from the school population of Gran Canaria, Spain. MVPA, screen-time in front of television, computer, video game console and portable console was assessed in the classroom by fulfilling a standardized questionnaire. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses adjusted by a set of social-environmental variables were carried out. Forty-six percent of girls (95% CI±2.3% and 26% of boys (95% CI±2.1% did not meet the MVPA recommendations for adolescents. Major gender differences were observed in the time devoted to vigorous PA, video games and the total time spent on screen-based activities. Boys who reported 4 hours•week(-1 or more to total screen-time showed a 64% (OR = 0.61, 95% CI, 0.44-0.86 increased risk of failing to achieve the recommended adolescent MVPA level. Participation in organized physical activities and sports competitions were more strongly associated with MVPA than screen-related behaviors. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: No single screen-related behavior explained the reduction of MVPA in adolescents. However, the total time accumulated through several screen-related behaviors was negatively associated with MVPA level in boys. This association could be due to lower availability of time for exercise as the time devoted to sedentary screen-time activities increases. Participation in organized physical activities seems to counteract the negative impact of excessive time in front of screens on physical activity.

  10. Competing risks model in screening for preeclampsia by maternal characteristics and medical history.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, David; Syngelaki, Argyro; Akolekar, Ranjit; Poon, Leona C; Nicolaides, Kypros H

    2015-07-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop a model for preeclampsia based on maternal demographic characteristics and medical history. This was a screening study of 120,492 singleton pregnancies at 11-13 weeks' gestation, including 2704 pregnancies (2.2%) that experienced preeclampsia. A survival-time model for the gestational age at delivery with preeclampsia was developed from variables of maternal characteristics and history. This approach assumes that, if the pregnancy was to continue indefinitely, all women would experience preeclampsia and that whether they do so or not before a specified gestational age depends on competition between delivery before or after development of preeclampsia. A 5-fold cross validation study was conducted to compare the performance of the new model with the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) guidelines. In the new model, increased risk for preeclampsia, with a consequent shift in the Gaussian distribution of the gestational age at delivery with preeclampsia to the left, is provided by advancing maternal age, increasing weight, Afro-Caribbean and South Asian racial origin, medical history of chronic hypertension, diabetes mellitus and systemic lupus erythematosus or antiphospholipid syndrome, family history and personal history of preeclampsia, and conception by in vitro fertilization. The risk for preeclampsia decreases with increasing maternal height and in parous women with no previous preeclampsia; in the latter, the protective effect, which is related inversely to the interpregnancy interval, persists beyond 15 years. At a screen-positive rate of 11%, as defined by NICE, the new model predicted 40%, 48%, and 54% of cases of total preeclampsia and preeclampsia requiring delivery at preeclampsia. Such estimation of the a priori risk for preeclampsia is an essential first step in the use of Bayes theorem to combine maternal factors with biomarkers for the continuing development of more effective methods of

  11. The cumulative risk of false-positive screening results across screening centres in the Norwegian Breast Cancer Screening Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roman, M., E-mail: Marta.Roman@kreftregisteret.no [Cancer Registry of Norway, Oslo (Norway); Department of Women and Children’s Health, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo (Norway); Skaane, P., E-mail: PERSK@ous-hf.no [Department of Radiology, Oslo University Hospital Ullevaal, University of Oslo, Oslo (Norway); Hofvind, S., E-mail: Solveig.Hofvind@kreftregisteret.no [Cancer Registry of Norway, Oslo (Norway); Oslo and Akershus University College of Applied Sciences, Faculty of Health Science, Oslo (Norway)

    2014-09-15

    Highlights: • We found variation in early performance measures across screening centres. • Radiologists’ performance may play a key role in the variability. • Potential to improve the effectiveness of breast cancer screening programs. • Continuous surveillance of screening centres and radiologists is essential. - Abstract: Background: Recall for assessment in mammographic screening entails an inevitable number of false-positive screening results. This study aimed to investigate the variation in the cumulative risk of a false positive screening result and the positive predictive value across the screening centres in the Norwegian Breast Cancer Screening Program. Methods: We studied 618,636 women aged 50–69 years who underwent 2,090,575 screening exams (1996–2010. Recall rate, positive predictive value, rate of screen-detected cancer, and the cumulative risk of a false positive screening result, without and with invasive procedures across the screening centres were calculated. Generalized linear models were used to estimate the probability of a false positive screening result and to compute the cumulative false-positive risk for up to ten biennial screening examinations. Results: The cumulative risk of a false-positive screening exam varied from 10.7% (95% CI: 9.4–12.0%) to 41.5% (95% CI: 34.1–48.9%) across screening centres, with a highest to lowest ratio of 3.9 (95% CI: 3.7–4.0). The highest to lowest ratio for the cumulative risk of undergoing an invasive procedure with a benign outcome was 4.3 (95% CI: 4.0–4.6). The positive predictive value of recall varied between 12.0% (95% CI: 11.0–12.9%) and 19.9% (95% CI: 18.3–21.5%), with a highest to lowest ratio of 1.7 (95% CI: 1.5–1.9). Conclusions: A substantial variation in the performance measures across the screening centres in the Norwegian Breast Cancer Screening Program was identified, despite of similar administration, procedures, and quality assurance requirements. Differences in the

  12. The cumulative risk of false-positive screening results across screening centres in the Norwegian Breast Cancer Screening Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roman, M.; Skaane, P.; Hofvind, S.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • We found variation in early performance measures across screening centres. • Radiologists’ performance may play a key role in the variability. • Potential to improve the effectiveness of breast cancer screening programs. • Continuous surveillance of screening centres and radiologists is essential. - Abstract: Background: Recall for assessment in mammographic screening entails an inevitable number of false-positive screening results. This study aimed to investigate the variation in the cumulative risk of a false positive screening result and the positive predictive value across the screening centres in the Norwegian Breast Cancer Screening Program. Methods: We studied 618,636 women aged 50–69 years who underwent 2,090,575 screening exams (1996–2010. Recall rate, positive predictive value, rate of screen-detected cancer, and the cumulative risk of a false positive screening result, without and with invasive procedures across the screening centres were calculated. Generalized linear models were used to estimate the probability of a false positive screening result and to compute the cumulative false-positive risk for up to ten biennial screening examinations. Results: The cumulative risk of a false-positive screening exam varied from 10.7% (95% CI: 9.4–12.0%) to 41.5% (95% CI: 34.1–48.9%) across screening centres, with a highest to lowest ratio of 3.9 (95% CI: 3.7–4.0). The highest to lowest ratio for the cumulative risk of undergoing an invasive procedure with a benign outcome was 4.3 (95% CI: 4.0–4.6). The positive predictive value of recall varied between 12.0% (95% CI: 11.0–12.9%) and 19.9% (95% CI: 18.3–21.5%), with a highest to lowest ratio of 1.7 (95% CI: 1.5–1.9). Conclusions: A substantial variation in the performance measures across the screening centres in the Norwegian Breast Cancer Screening Program was identified, despite of similar administration, procedures, and quality assurance requirements. Differences in the

  13. MODEL PENGELOLAAN LINGKUNGAN TAMAN WISATA ALAM GUNUNG MEJA MANOKWARI PAPUA BARAT (Model Environmental Management of Meja Mountain Natural Manokwari West Papua (Model Environmental Management of Meja Mountain Natural Manokwari West Papua

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalsen Basna

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRAK Model pengelolaan lingkungan hutan Taman Wisata Alam Gunung Meja mencapai lingkungan keberkelanjutan apabila aspek ekologis, ekonornis, dan sosial budaya yang dinarnis diperlukan suatu konsep model lingkungan yang permanen dalam pengelolaannya. Model lingkungan adalah perwakilan sebuah objek dalam bentuk aktual atau situasi rill yang ditentukan secara sadar dan terencana. Penelitian ini bertujuan (i menganalisis model sistem blok, (2 mengontruksi model rekayasa struktur hutan tanaman lokal campuran sebagai pengedalian lingkungan masa kini, (3 mengonstuksi model arahan lingkungan pengelolaan wisata alam yang berbasis bisnis konservasi.Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah memadukan sumber informasi lingkungan dari data penginderaan jauh, peta tematik, sistem informasi geografis (SIG, dan survei lapangan. Populasi sampel mengenai kerusakan lingkungan dipilih dari peta satuan lahan sesuai dengan liputan citra lansat thematic mapper (TM atau enhanced thematic mapper (ETM seluruh kawasan dan survei lapangan.Hasil penelitian, adalah (1 perumusan model berdasarkan kondisi permasalahan yang terdiri atas model sistem blok berdasarkan blok daerah datar, daerah tangkapan air satu atau daerah dengan kerapatan hutan yang tinggi, blok kerapatan sedang atau daerah tangkapan air dua, blok daerah pernanfaatan dan blok rehabilitasi; (2 mengontruksi model rekayasa struktur hutan tanaman lokal campuran untuk pengendalian lingkungan masa kini berdasarkan stratifikasi tajuk; dan (3 menginstruksi model arahan pengelolaan lingkungan wisata alam yang berbasis bisnis konservasi berdasarkan pada pengembagan jalur pariwisata dan model pengembangan bisnis konservasi. ABSTRACT Model environmental management of forests Meja Mountain Natural Park has achieved thenvironmental aspects of sustainability where ecological, economic and socio-cultural dynamic. At present a concept model of the environment, that can be permanently implied in its management is

  14. Enhanced hexose fermentation by Saccharomyces cerevisiae through integration of stoichiometric modeling and genetic screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quarterman, Josh; Kim, Soo Rin; Kim, Pan-Jun; Jin, Yong-Su

    2015-01-20

    In order to determine beneficial gene deletions for ethanol production by the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae, we performed an in silico gene deletion experiment based on a genome-scale metabolic model. Genes coding for two oxidative phosphorylation reactions (cytochrome c oxidase and ubiquinol cytochrome c reductase) were identified by the model-based simulation as potential deletion targets for enhancing ethanol production and maintaining acceptable overall growth rate in oxygen-limited conditions. Since the two target enzymes are composed of multiple subunits, we conducted a genetic screening study to evaluate the in silico results and compare the effect of deleting various portions of the respiratory enzyme complexes. Over two-thirds of the knockout mutants identified by the in silico study did exhibit experimental behavior in qualitative agreement with model predictions, but the exceptions illustrate the limitation of using a purely stoichiometric model-based approach. Furthermore, there was a substantial quantitative variation in phenotype among the various respiration-deficient mutants that were screened in this study, and three genes encoding respiratory enzyme subunits were identified as the best knockout targets for improving hexose fermentation in microaerobic conditions. Specifically, deletion of either COX9 or QCR9 resulted in higher ethanol production rates than the parental strain by 37% and 27%, respectively, with slight growth disadvantages. Also, deletion of QCR6 led to improved ethanol production rate by 24% with no growth disadvantage. The beneficial effects of these gene deletions were consistently demonstrated in different strain backgrounds and with four common hexoses. The combination of stoichiometric modeling and genetic screening using a systematic knockout collection was useful for narrowing a large set of gene targets and identifying targets of interest. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. The health system and population health implications of large-scale diabetes screening in India: a microsimulation model of alternative approaches.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanjay Basu

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Like a growing number of rapidly developing countries, India has begun to develop a system for large-scale community-based screening for diabetes. We sought to identify the implications of using alternative screening instruments to detect people with undiagnosed type 2 diabetes among diverse populations across India.We developed and validated a microsimulation model that incorporated data from 58 studies from across the country into a nationally representative sample of Indians aged 25-65 y old. We estimated the diagnostic and health system implications of three major survey-based screening instruments and random glucometer-based screening. Of the 567 million Indians eligible for screening, depending on which of four screening approaches is utilized, between 158 and 306 million would be expected to screen as "high risk" for type 2 diabetes, and be referred for confirmatory testing. Between 26 million and 37 million of these people would be expected to meet international diagnostic criteria for diabetes, but between 126 million and 273 million would be "false positives." The ratio of false positives to true positives varied from 3.9 (when using random glucose screening to 8.2 (when using a survey-based screening instrument in our model. The cost per case found would be expected to be from US$5.28 (when using random glucose screening to US$17.06 (when using a survey-based screening instrument, presenting a total cost of between US$169 and US$567 million. The major limitation of our analysis is its dependence on published cohort studies that are unlikely fully to capture the poorest and most rural areas of the country. Because these areas are thought to have the lowest diabetes prevalence, this may result in overestimation of the efficacy and health benefits of screening.Large-scale community-based screening is anticipated to produce a large number of false-positive results, particularly if using currently available survey-based screening

  16. Breast Cancer Screening in an Era of Personalized Regimens

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onega, Tracy; Beaber, Elisabeth F.; Sprague, Brian L.; Barlow, William E.; Haas, Jennifer S.; Tosteson, Anna N.A.; Schnall, Mitchell D.; Armstrong, Katrina; Schapira, Marilyn M.; Geller, Berta; Weaver, Donald L.; Conant, Emily F.

    2014-01-01

    Breast cancer screening holds a prominent place in public health, health care delivery, policy, and women’s health care decisions. Several factors are driving shifts in how population-based breast cancer screening is approached, including advanced imaging technologies, health system performance measures, health care reform, concern for “overdiagnosis,” and improved understanding of risk. Maximizing benefits while minimizing the harms of screening requires moving from a “1-size-fits-all” guideline paradigm to more personalized strategies. A refined conceptual model for breast cancer screening is needed to align women’s risks and preferences with screening regimens. A conceptual model of personalized breast cancer screening is presented herein that emphasizes key domains and transitions throughout the screening process, as well as multilevel perspectives. The key domains of screening awareness, detection, diagnosis, and treatment and survivorship are conceptualized to function at the level of the patient, provider, facility, health care system, and population/policy arena. Personalized breast cancer screening can be assessed across these domains with both process and outcome measures. Identifying, evaluating, and monitoring process measures in screening is a focus of a National Cancer Institute initiative entitled PROSPR (Population-based Research Optimizing Screening through Personalized Regimens), which will provide generalizable evidence for a risk-based model of breast cancer screening, The model presented builds on prior breast cancer screening models and may serve to identify new measures to optimize benefits-to-harms tradeoffs in population-based screening, which is a timely goal in the era of health care reform. PMID:24830599

  17. Feasibility of interdisciplinary community-based fall risk screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliott, Sharon J; Ivanescu, Andrada; Leland, Natalie E; Fogo, Jennifer; Painter, Jane A; Trujillo, Leonard G

    2012-01-01

    This pilot study examined the feasibility of (1) conducting interdisciplinary fall risk screens at a communitywide adult fall prevention event and (2) collecting preliminary follow-up data from people screened at the event about balance confidence and home and activity modifications made after receiving educational information at the event. We conducted a pilot study with pre- and posttesting (4-mo follow-up) with 35 community-dwelling adults ≥55 yr old. Approximately half the participants were at risk for falls. Most participants who anticipated making environmental or activity changes to reduce fall risk initiated changes (n = 8/11; 72.7%) during the 4-mo follow-up period. We found no significant difference in participants' balance confidence between baseline (median = 62.81) and follow-up (median = 64.06) as measured by the Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale. Conducting interdisciplinary fall risk screens at an adult fall prevention event is feasible and can facilitate environmental and behavior changes to reduce fall risk. Copyright © 2012 by the American Occupational Therapy Association, Inc.

  18. Inventory of environmental impact models related to energy technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Owen, P.T.; Dailey, N.S.; Johnson, C.A.; Martin, F.M. (eds.)

    1979-02-01

    The purpose of this inventory is to identify and collect data on computer simulations and computational models related to the environmental effects of energy source development, energy conversion, or energy utilization. Information for 33 data fields was sought for each model reported. All of the information which could be obtained within the time alloted for completion of the project is presented for each model listed. Efforts will be continued toward acquiring the needed information. Readers who are interested in these particular models are invited to contact ESIC for assistance in locating them. In addition to the standard bibliographic information, other data fields of interest to modelers, such as computer hardware and software requirements, algorithms, applications, and existing model validation information, are included. Indexes are provided for contact person, acronym, keyword, and title. The models are grouped into the following categories: atmospheric transport, air quality, aquatic transport, terrestrial food chains, soil transport, aquatic food chains, water quality, dosimetry, and human effects, animal effects, plant effects, and generalized environmental transport. Within these categories, the models are arranged alphabetically by last name of the contact person.

  19. Inventory of environmental impact models related to energy technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owen, P.T.; Dailey, N.S.; Johnson, C.A.; Martin, F.M.

    1979-02-01

    The purpose of this inventory is to identify and collect data on computer simulations and computational models related to the environmental effects of energy source development, energy conversion, or energy utilization. Information for 33 data fields was sought for each model reported. All of the information which could be obtained within the time alloted for completion of the project is presented for each model listed. Efforts will be continued toward acquiring the needed information. Readers who are interested in these particular models are invited to contact ESIC for assistance in locating them. In addition to the standard bibliographic information, other data fields of interest to modelers, such as computer hardware and software requirements, algorithms, applications, and existing model validation information, are included. Indexes are provided for contact person, acronym, keyword, and title. The models are grouped into the following categories: atmospheric transport, air quality, aquatic transport, terrestrial food chains, soil transport, aquatic food chains, water quality, dosimetry, and human effects, animal effects, plant effects, and generalized environmental transport. Within these categories, the models are arranged alphabetically by last name of the contact person

  20. Debye screening and a Thomas - Fermi model of a dyonic atom in a two potential theory of electromagnetism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wolf, C.

    1993-01-01

    We study the screening of a central Abelian dyon by a surrounding dyon cloud in a two potential theory of electromagnetism. A generalized formula for the Debye screening length is obtained and a Thomas - Fermi Model for a charged cloud surrounding a central Dyonic Core is studied. 20 refs

  1. Dose assessment in environmental radiological protection: State of the art and perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stark, Karolina; Goméz-Ros, José M; Vives I Batlle, Jordi; Lindbo Hansen, Elisabeth; Beaugelin-Seiller, Karine; Kapustka, Lawrence A; Wood, Michael D; Bradshaw, Clare; Real, Almudena; McGuire, Corynne; Hinton, Thomas G

    2017-09-01

    Exposure to radiation is a potential hazard to humans and the environment. The Fukushima accident reminded the world of the importance of a reliable risk management system that incorporates the dose received from radiation exposures. The dose to humans from exposure to radiation can be quantified using a well-defined system; its environmental equivalent, however, is still in a developmental state. Additionally, the results of several papers published over the last decade have been criticized because of poor dosimetry. Therefore, a workshop on environmental dosimetry was organized by the STAR (Strategy for Allied Radioecology) Network of Excellence to review the state of the art in environmental dosimetry and prioritize areas of methodological and guidance development. Herein, we report the key findings from that international workshop, summarise parameters that affect the dose animals and plants receive when exposed to radiation, and identify further research needs. Current dosimetry practices for determining environmental protection are based on simple screening dose assessments using knowledge of fundamental radiation physics, source-target geometry relationships, the influence of organism shape and size, and knowledge of how radionuclide distributions in the body and in the soil profile alter dose. In screening model calculations that estimate whole-body dose to biota the shapes of organisms are simply represented as ellipsoids, while recently developed complex voxel phantom models allow organ-specific dose estimates. We identified several research and guidance development priorities for dosimetry. For external exposures, the uncertainty in dose estimates due to spatially heterogeneous distributions of radionuclide contamination is currently being evaluated. Guidance is needed on the level of dosimetry that is required when screening benchmarks are exceeded and how to report exposure in dose-effect studies, including quantification of uncertainties. Further

  2. Field screening procedures for determining the presence of volatile organic compounds in soil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crockett, A.B.; DeHaan, M.S.

    1991-01-01

    Many field screening procedures have been used to detect the presence of volatile organic compounds (VOC) in soils but almost none have been documented and verified. Users of these procedures have not really known whether their objectives in screening were met. A reliable VOC screening procedure could significantly reduce the number of samples currently being submitted to laboratories, thereby reducing costs and improving site characterization. The Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Monitoring Systems Laboratory in Las Vegas (EMSL-LV) has therefore sponsored a research effort to evaluate and improve headspace methods for screening soils for VOC in the field. The research involved comparing several extraction procedures using soils from actual waste sites, and determining the agitation and mixing necessary to achieve equilibrium. Headspace was analyzed using a relatively simple portable gas chromatograph with a short column. The results were variable and show that several procedures should be attempted and the results evaluated before selecting a screening procedure. 10 refs., 6 tabs

  3. Potential Environmental Justice Areas - (EJSCREEN) Block Group Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — These data are from EJSCREEN, an environmental justice (EJ) screening and mapping tool that provides EPA with a nationally consistent dataset and methodology for...

  4. Principle Guided Investing: The Use of Exclusionary Screens and Its Implications for Green Investors

    OpenAIRE

    Urs von Arx

    2007-01-01

    This paper examines how "green" investors can induce firms to invest in clean production technology. The 1-period model incorporates heterogeneous agents - Markowitz investors and green investors – and two groups of firms working either with clean or polluting technology. Since green investors apply exclusionary environmental screens, some firms will invest in abatement technology in order to switch to a clean technology and thereby raising firm value. The number of firms working with clean t...

  5. High Throughput Screen for Novel Antimicrobials using a Whole Animal Infection Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moy, Terence I.; Conery, Annie L.; Larkins-Ford, Jonah; Wu, Gang; Mazitschek, Ralph; Casadei, Gabriele; Lewis, Kim; Carpenter, Anne E.; Ausubel, Frederick M.

    2009-01-01

    The nematode Caenorhabditis elegans is a unique whole animal model system for identifying small molecules with in vivo anti-infective properties. C. elegans can be infected with a broad range of human pathogens, including Enterococcus faecalis, an important human nosocomial pathogen with a mortality rate of up to 37% that is increasingly acquiring resistance to antibiotics. Here, we describe an automated, high throughput screen of 37,200 compounds and natural product extracts for those that enhance survival of C. elegans infected with E. faecalis. The screen uses a robot to accurately dispense live, infected animals into 384-well plates, and automated microscopy and image analysis to generate quantitative, high content data. We identified 28 compounds and extracts that were not previously reported to have antimicrobial properties, including 6 structural classes that cure infected C. elegans animals but do not affect the growth of the pathogen in vitro, thus acting by a mechanism of action distinct from antibiotics currently in clinical use. Our versatile and robust screening system can be easily adapted for other whole animal assays to probe a broad range of biological processes. PMID:19572548

  6. Environmental Warning System Based on the DPSIR Model: A Practical and Concise Method for Environmental Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenqi Wang

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Though we are in urgent need of environmental warnings to slow environmental deterioration, currently, there is no internationally concise method for environmental warnings. In addition, the existing approaches do not combine the three aspects of ecology, resources, and environment. At the same time, the three elements of the environment (air, water, and soil are separated in most environmental warning systems. Thus, the method this paper gives is an innovative attempt and aims to make environmental assessment more practical. This paper establishes the index system of an environmental early warning based on the Driving–Pressure–State–Influence–Response (DPSIR model. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP method was used to determine the weights. Next, single and integrated index methods further assess the environmental warning state, in which the weighted summation method is used to summarize the data and results. The case of Tianjin is used to confirm the applicability of this method. In conclusion, the method in this paper is more well-behaved and, therefore, more suitable to assist cities in their environmental assessment.

  7. Computer-Aided Evaluation of Screening Mammograms Based on Local Texture Models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Grim, Jiří; Somol, Petr; Haindl, Michal; Daneš, J.

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 18, č. 4 (2009), s. 765-773 ISSN 1057-7149 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA102/07/1594; GA ČR GA102/08/0593; GA MŠk 1M0572 Grant - others:GA MŠk(CZ) 2C06019 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Screening mammography * texture information * local statistical model * Gaussian mixture Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 2.848, year: 2009

  8. Recommendations for successful sensory screening in older adults with dementia in long-term care: a qualitative environmental scan of Canadian specialists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wittich, Walter; Höbler, Fiona; Jarry, Jonathan; McGilton, Katherine S

    2018-01-26

    This study aimed to identify screening tools, technologies and strategies that vision and hearing care specialists recommend to front-line healthcare professionals for the screening of older adults in long-term care homes who have dementia. An environmental scan of healthcare professionals took place via telephone interviews between December 2015 and March 2016. All interviews were audio recorded, transcribed, proofed for accuracy, and their contents thematically analysed by two members of the research team. A convenience sample of 11 professionals from across Canada specialising in the fields of vision and hearing healthcare and technology for older adults with cognitive impairment were included in the study. As part of a larger mixed-methods project, this qualitative study used semistructured interviews and their subsequent content analysis. Following a two-step content analysis of interview data, coded citations were grouped into three main categories: (1) barriers, (2) facilitators and (3) tools and strategies that do or do not work for sensory screening of older adults with dementia. We report on the information offered by participants within each of these themes, along with a summary of tools and strategies that work for screening older adults with dementia. Recommendations from sensory specialists to nurses working in long-term care included the need for improved interprofessional communication and collaboration, as well as flexibility, additional time and strategic use of clinical intuition and ingenuity. These suggestions at times contradicted the realities of service provision or the need for standardised and validated measures. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  9. Implications of movement for species distribution models - Rethinking environmental data tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruneel, Stijn; Gobeyn, Sacha; Verhelst, Pieterjan; Reubens, Jan; Moens, Tom; Goethals, Peter

    2018-07-01

    Movement is considered an essential process in shaping the distributions of species. Nevertheless, most species distribution models (SDMs) still focus solely on environment-species relationships to predict the occurrence of species. Furthermore, the currently used indirect estimates of movement allow to assess habitat accessibility, but do not provide an accurate description of movement. Better proxies of movement are needed to assess the dispersal potential of individual species and to gain a more practical insight in the interconnectivity of communities. Telemetry techniques are rapidly evolving and highly capable to provide explicit descriptions of movement, but their usefulness for SDMs will mainly depend on the ability of these models to deal with hitherto unconsidered ecological processes. More specifically, the integration of movement is likely to affect the environmental data requirements as the connection between environmental and biological data is crucial to provide reliable results. Mobility implies the occupancy of a continuum of space, hence an adequate representation of both geographical and environmental space is paramount to study mobile species distributions. In this context, environmental models, remote sensing techniques and animal-borne environmental sensors are discussed as potential techniques to obtain suitable environmental data. In order to provide an in-depth review of the aforementioned methods, we have chosen to use the modelling of fish distributions as a case study. The high mobility of fish and the often highly variable nature of the aquatic environment generally complicate model development, making it an adequate subject for research. Furthermore, insight into the distribution of fish is of great interest for fish stock assessments and water management worldwide, underlining its practical relevance. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Evaluation of a Stratified National Breast Screening Program in the United Kingdom: An Early Model-Based Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, Ewan; Donten, Anna; Karssemeijer, Nico; van Gils, Carla; Evans, D Gareth; Astley, Sue; Payne, Katherine

    2017-09-01

    To identify the incremental costs and consequences of stratified national breast screening programs (stratified NBSPs) and drivers of relative cost-effectiveness. A decision-analytic model (discrete event simulation) was conceptualized to represent four stratified NBSPs (risk 1, risk 2, masking [supplemental screening for women with higher breast density], and masking and risk 1) compared with the current UK NBSP and no screening. The model assumed a lifetime horizon, the health service perspective to identify costs (£, 2015), and measured consequences in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Multiple data sources were used: systematic reviews of effectiveness and utility, published studies reporting costs, and cohort studies embedded in existing NBSPs. Model parameter uncertainty was assessed using probabilistic sensitivity analysis and one-way sensitivity analysis. The base-case analysis, supported by probabilistic sensitivity analysis, suggested that the risk stratified NBSPs (risk 1 and risk-2) were relatively cost-effective when compared with the current UK NBSP, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of £16,689 per QALY and £23,924 per QALY, respectively. Stratified NBSP including masking approaches (supplemental screening for women with higher breast density) was not a cost-effective alternative, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of £212,947 per QALY (masking) and £75,254 per QALY (risk 1 and masking). When compared with no screening, all stratified NBSPs could be considered cost-effective. Key drivers of cost-effectiveness were discount rate, natural history model parameters, mammographic sensitivity, and biopsy rates for recalled cases. A key assumption was that the risk model used in the stratification process was perfectly calibrated to the population. This early model-based cost-effectiveness analysis provides indicative evidence for decision makers to understand the key drivers of costs and QALYs for exemplar stratified NBSP. Copyright

  11. Screening of nanoparticulate delivery systems for the photodetection of cancer in a simple and cost-effective model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeisser-Labouèbe, Magali; Delie, Florence; Gurny, Robert; Lange, Norbert

    2009-02-01

    In urology, fluorescence-based imaging methods have been proven to significantly improve the detection of small, barely visible tumors and reduce the recurrence rate. Under ethical and economical pressure, new effective screening systems have to be developed to exploit and assess novel strategies for fluorescence photodetection in other areas. For this purpose, the chorioallantoic membrane (CAM) of the developing chick embryo is an attractive alternative model to the mammalian models. Hypericin encapsulated into nanoparticles for the photodetection of ovarian metastases was evaluated in the CAM model with respect to vascular extravazation and tumor targeting and compared with free drug following intravenous administration. To validate the CAM model as a valuable screening system for photodetection of cancer, we drew a comparison with results obtained on a conventional rodent model. Rodent and CAM models led to the same conclusion regarding the benefits of nanoencapsulation to improve selective accumulation of drug in ovarian micrometastases.

  12. 15. Experts' meeting on monitoring environmental radioactivity. Data - models - information. Proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2014-01-01

    The proceedings of the 15. Experts' meeting on monitoring environmental radioactivity include contributions o the following topics: environmental monitoring in Germany; developments in emergency protection and environmental monitoring; implementation of model and information systems; measuring programs during events and exercises; public information during local and global events; fast and (new) analytical methods; measures of the quality management systems; European and international environmental monitoring harmonization.

  13. The cost-effectiveness of neonatal screening for Cystic Fibrosis: an analysis of alternative scenarios using a decision model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tu Karen

    2005-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The use of neonatal screening for cystic fibrosis is widely debated in the United Kingdom and elsewhere, but the evidence available to inform policy is limited. This paper explores the cost-effectiveness of adding screening for cystic fibrosis to an existing routine neonatal screening programme for congenital hypothyroidism and phenylketonuria, under alternative scenarios and assumptions. Methods The study is based on a decision model comparing screening to no screening in terms of a number of outcome measures, including diagnosis of cystic fibrosis, life-time treatment costs, life years and QALYs gained. The setting is a hypothetical UK health region without an existing neonatal screening programme for cystic fibrosis. Results Under initial assumptions, neonatal screening (using an immunoreactive trypsin/DNA two stage screening protocol costs £5,387 per infant diagnosed, or £1.83 per infant screened (1998 costs. Neonatal screening for cystic fibrosis produces an incremental cost-effectiveness of £6,864 per QALY gained, in our base case scenario (an assumed benefit of a 6 month delay in the emergence of symptoms. A difference of 11 months or more in the emergence of symptoms (and mean survival means neonatal screening is both less costly and produces better outcomes than no screening. Conclusion Neonatal screening is expensive as a method of diagnosis. Neonatal screening may be a cost-effective intervention if the hypothesised delays in the onset of symptoms are confirmed. Implementing both antenatal and neonatal screening would undermine potential economic benefits, since a reduction in the birth incidence of cystic fibrosis would reduce the cost-effectiveness of neonatal screening.

  14. Development of a product screening protocol to minimize marine environmental impacts of oil production chemicals used offshore

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vik, E.A.; Berg, J.D.; Bakke, S.; Oefjord, G.D.; Reinhard, M.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents the initial results of a research project initiated by Conoco Norway, Inc. (CNI) late in 1989. The objective of the project is to develop a screening protocol for determining the potential environmental impacts of five types of chemicals typically used in offshore oil and gas production operations in the North Sea. The protocol includes tests for determination of bioaccumulation potential, oil-water distribution factor, biodegradation potential, and toxicity. When fully developed, the protocol represents one possible approach to implementing the proposed PARCOM standard testing program. Only the results for the bioaccumulation potential and oil-water distribution factor are presented here. For determination of bioaccumulation potential, the High Performance Liquid Chromotography (HPLC) is recommended. The oil-water distribution factor can be determined by surrogate parameters as total organic carbon (TOC), UV-absorption or gas chromatography (GC). (Author)

  15. The use and acceptance of Other Scientifically Relevant Information (OSRI) in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Endocrine Disruptor Screening Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bishop, Patricia L; Willett, Catherine E

    2014-02-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Endocrine Disruptor Screening Program (EDSP) currently relies on an initial screening battery (Tier 1) consisting of five in vitro and six in vivo assays to evaluate a chemical's potential to interact with the endocrine system. Chemical companies may request test waivers based on Other Scientifically Relevant Information (OSRI) that is functionally equivalent to data gathered in the screening battery or that provides information on a potential endocrine effect. Respondents for 47 of the first 67 chemicals evaluated in the EDSP submitted OSRI in lieu of some or all Tier 1 tests, seeking 412 waivers, of which EPA granted only 93. For 20 of the 47 chemicals, EPA denied all OSRI and required the entire Tier 1 battery. Often, the OSRI accepted was either identical to data generated by the Tier 1 assay or indicated a positive result. Although identified as potential sources of OSRI in EPA guidance, Part 158 guideline studies for pesticide registration were seldom accepted by EPA. The 93 waivers reduced animal use by at least 3325 animals. We estimate 27,731 animals were used in the actual Tier 1 tests, with additional animals being used in preparation for testing. Even with EPA's shift toward applying 21st-century toxicology tools to screening of endocrine disruptors in the future, acceptance of OSRI will remain a primary means for avoiding duplicative testing and reducing use of animals in the EDSP. Therefore, it is essential that EPA develop a consistent and transparent basis for accepting OSRI. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  16. Environmental problems and economic development in an endogenous fertility model

    OpenAIRE

    Frank Joest; Martin Quaas; Johannes Schiller

    2006-01-01

    Population growth is often viewed as a most oppressive global problem with respect to environmental deterioration, but the relationships between population development, economic dynamics and environmental pollution are complex due to various feedback mechanisms. We analyze society’s economic decisions on birth rates, investment into human and physical capital, and polluting emissions within an optimal control model of the coupled demographic-economic-environmental system. We show that a long-...

  17. Managing uncertainty in integrated environmental modelling: The UncertWeb framework.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bastin, L.; Cornford, D.; Jones, R.; Heuvelink, G.B.M.; Pebesma, E.; Stasch, C.; Nativi, S.; Mazzetti, P.

    2013-01-01

    Web-based distributed modelling architectures are gaining increasing recognition as potentially useful tools to build holistic environmental models, combining individual components in complex workflows. However, existing web-based modelling frameworks currently offer no support for managing

  18. Ecological Screening Values for Surface Water, Sediment, and Soil: 2005 Update

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Friday, G. P.

    2005-07-18

    One of the principal components of the environmental remediation program at the Savannah River Site (SRS) is the assessment of ecological risk. Used to support CERCLA, RCRA, and DOE orders, the ecological risk assessment (ERA) can identify environmental hazards and evaluate remedial action alternatives. Ecological risk assessment is also an essential means for achieving DOE's risk based end state vision for the disposition of nuclear material and waste hazards, the decommissioning of facilities, and the remediation of inactive waste units at SRS. The complexity of an ERA ranges from a screening level ERA (SLERA) to a full baseline ERA. A screening level ecological risk assessments, although abbreviated from a baseline risk assessment, is nonetheless considered a complete risk assessment (EPA, 2001a). One of the initial tasks of any ERA is to identify constituents that potentially or adversely affect the environment. Typically, this is accomplished by comparing a constituent's maximum concentration in surface water, sediment, or soil with an ecological screening value (ESV). The screening process can eliminate many constituents from further consideration in the risk assessment, but it also identifies those that require additional evaluation. This document is an update of a previous compilation (Friday, 1998) and provides a comprehensive listing of ecological screening values for surface water, sediment, and soil. It describes how the screening values were derived and recommends benchmarks that can be used for ecological risk assessment. The sources of these updated benchmarks include the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), the State of Florida, the Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment (CCME), the Dutch Ministry of the Environment (RIVM), and the scientific literature. It

  19. Integrating environmental component models. Development of a software framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schmitz, O.

    2014-01-01

    Integrated models consist of interacting component models that represent various natural and social systems. They are important tools to improve our understanding of environmental systems, to evaluate cause–effect relationships of human–natural interactions, and to forecast the behaviour of

  20. Cost Analysis of Universal Screening vs. Risk Factor-Based Screening for Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Virginia R Roth

    Full Text Available The literature remains conflicted regarding the most effective way to screen for MRSA. This study was designed to assess costs associated with universal versus risk factor-based screening for the reduction of nosocomial MRSA transmission.The study was conducted at The Ottawa Hospital, a large multi-centre tertiary care facility with approximately 47,000 admissions annually. From January 2006-December 2007, patients underwent risk factor-based screening for MRSA on admission. From January 2008 to August 2009 universal MRSA screening was implemented. A comparison of costs incurred during risk factor-based screening and universal screening was conducted. The model incorporated probabilities relating to the likelihood of being tested and the results of polymerase chain reaction (PCR testing with associated effects in terms of MRSA bacteremia and true positive and negative test results. Inputted costs included laboratory testing, contact precautions and infection control, private room costs, housekeeping, and length of hospital stay. Deterministic sensitivity analyses were conducted.The risk factor-based MRSA screening program screened approximately 30% of admitted patients and cost the hospital over $780 000 annually. The universal screening program screened approximately 83% of admitted patients and cost over $1.94 million dollars, representing an excess cost of $1.16 million per year. The estimated additional cost per patient screened was $17.76.This analysis demonstrated that a universal MRSA screening program was costly from a hospital perspective and was previously known to not be clinically effective at reducing MRSA transmission. These results may be useful to inform future model-based economic analyses of MRSA interventions.

  1. Evaluation of a screening system for obesogenic compounds: screening of endocrine disrupting compounds and evaluation of the PPAR dependency of the effect.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Pereira-Fernandes

    Full Text Available Recently the environmental obesogen hypothesis has been formulated, proposing a role for endocrine disrupting compounds (EDCs in the development of obesity. To evaluate this hypothesis, a screening system for obesogenic compounds is urgently needed. In this study, we suggest a standardised protocol for obesogen screening based on the 3T3-L1 cell line, a well-characterised adipogenesis model, and direct fluorescent measurement using Nile red lipid staining technique. In a first phase, we characterised the assay using the acknowledged obesogens rosiglitazone and tributyltin. Based on the obtained dose-response curves for these model compounds, a lipid accumulation threshold value was calculated to ensure the biological relevance and reliability of statistically significant effects. This threshold based method was combined with the well described strictly standardized mean difference (SSMD method for classification of non-, weak- or strong obesogenic compounds. In the next step, a range of EDCs, used in personal and household care products (parabens, musks, phthalates and alkylphenol compounds, were tested to further evaluate the obesogenicity screening assay for its discriminative power and sensitivity. Additionally, the peroxisome proliferator activated receptor γ (PPARγ dependency of the positive compounds was evaluated using PPARγ activation and antagonist experiments. Our results showed the adipogenic potential of all tested parabens, several musks and phthalate compounds and bisphenol A (BPA. PPARγ activation was associated with adipogenesis for parabens, phthalates and BPA, however not required for obesogenic effects induced by Tonalide, indicating the role of other obesogenic mechanisms for this compound.

  2. Does screen size matter for smartphones? Utilitarian and hedonic effects of screen size on smartphone adoption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Ki Joon; Sundar, S Shyam

    2014-07-01

    This study explores the psychological effects of screen size on smartphone adoption by proposing an extended Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) that integrates an empirical comparison between large and small screens with perceived control, affective quality, and the original TAM constructs. A structural equation modeling analysis was conducted on data collected from a between-subjects experiment (N=130) in which users performed a web-based task on a smartphone with either a large (5.3 inches) or a small (3.7 inches) screen. Results show that a large screen, compared to a small screen, is likely to lead to higher smartphone adoption by simultaneously promoting both the utilitarian and hedonic qualities of smartphones, which in turn positively influence perceived ease of use of-and attitude toward-the device respectively. Implications and directions for future research are discussed.

  3. Modeling of environmentally significant interfaces: Two case studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williford, R.E.

    2006-01-01

    When some parameters cannot be easily measured experimentally, mathematical models can often be used to deconvolute or interpret data collected on complex systems, such as those characteristic of many environmental problems. These models can help quantify the contributions of various physical or chemical phenomena that contribute to the overall behavior, thereby enabling the scientist to control and manipulate these phenomena, and thus to optimize the performance of the material or device. In the first case study presented here, a model is used to test the hypothesis that oxygen interactions with hydrogen on the catalyst particles of solid oxide fuel cell anodes can sometimes occur a finite distance away from the triple phase boundary (TPB), so that such reactions are not restricted to the TPB as normally assumed. The model may help explain a discrepancy between the observed structure of SOFCs and their performance. The second case study develops a simple physical model that allows engineers to design and control the sizes and shapes of mesopores in silica thin films. Such pore design can be useful for enhancing the selectivity and reactivity of environmental sensors and catalysts. This paper demonstrates the mutually beneficial interactions between experiment and modeling in the solution of a wide range of problems

  4. Screening model for nanowire surface-charge sensors in liquid

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Martin Hedegård; Mortensen, Asger; Brandbyge, Mads

    2007-01-01

    The conductance change of nanowire field-effect transistors is considered a highly sensitive probe for surface charge. However, Debye screening of relevant physiological liquid environments challenge device performance due to competing screening from the ionic liquid and nanowire charge carriers....

  5. Vibration characteristics of an inclined flip-flow screen panel in banana flip-flow screens

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiong, Xiaoyan; Niu, Linkai; Gu, Chengxiang; Wang, Yinhua

    2017-12-01

    A banana flip-flow screen is an effective solution for the screening of high-viscosity, high-water and fine materials. As one of the key components, the vibration characteristics of the inclined flip-flow screen panel largely affects the screen performance and the processing capacity. In this paper, a mathematical model for the vibration characteristic of the inclined flip-flow screen panel is proposed based on Catenary theory. The reasonability of Catenary theory in analyzing the vibration characteristic of flip-flow screen panels is verified by a published experiment. Moreover, the effects of the rotation speed of exciters, the incline angle, the slack length and the characteristics of the screen on the vertical deflection, the vertical velocity and the vertical acceleration of the screen panel are investigated parametrically. The results show that the rotation speed of exciters, the incline angle, the slack length and the characteristics of the screen have significant effects on the vibrations of an inclined flip-flow screen panel, and these parameters should be optimized.

  6. Development of a Human Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK Toolkit for Environmental Pollutants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patricia Ruiz

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK models can be used to determine the internal dose and strengthen exposure assessment. Many PBPK models are available, but they are not easily accessible for field use. The Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (ATSDR has conducted translational research to develop a human PBPK model toolkit by recoding published PBPK models. This toolkit, when fully developed, will provide a platform that consists of a series of priority PBPK models of environmental pollutants. Presented here is work on recoded PBPK models for volatile organic compounds (VOCs and metals. Good agreement was generally obtained between the original and the recoded models. This toolkit will be available for ATSDR scientists and public health assessors to perform simulations of exposures from contaminated environmental media at sites of concern and to help interpret biomonitoring data. It can be used as screening tools that can provide useful information for the protection of the public.

  7. Modeling sequential context effects in diagnostic interpretation of screening mammograms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alamudun, Folami; Paulus, Paige; Yoon, Hong-Jun; Tourassi, Georgia

    2018-07-01

    Prior research has shown that physicians' medical decisions can be influenced by sequential context, particularly in cases where successive stimuli exhibit similar characteristics when analyzing medical images. This type of systematic error is known to psychophysicists as sequential context effect as it indicates that judgments are influenced by features of and decisions about the preceding case in the sequence of examined cases, rather than being based solely on the peculiarities unique to the present case. We determine if radiologists experience some form of context bias, using screening mammography as the use case. To this end, we explore correlations between previous perceptual behavior and diagnostic decisions and current decisions. We hypothesize that a radiologist's visual search pattern and diagnostic decisions in previous cases are predictive of the radiologist's current diagnostic decisions. To test our hypothesis, we tasked 10 radiologists of varied experience to conduct blind reviews of 100 four-view screening mammograms. Eye-tracking data and diagnostic decisions were collected from each radiologist under conditions mimicking clinical practice. Perceptual behavior was quantified using the fractal dimension of gaze scanpath, which was computed using the Minkowski-Bouligand box-counting method. To test the effect of previous behavior and decisions, we conducted a multifactor fixed-effects ANOVA. Further, to examine the predictive value of previous perceptual behavior and decisions, we trained and evaluated a predictive model for radiologists' current diagnostic decisions. ANOVA tests showed that previous visual behavior, characterized by fractal analysis, previous diagnostic decisions, and image characteristics of previous cases are significant predictors of current diagnostic decisions. Additionally, predictive modeling of diagnostic decisions showed an overall improvement in prediction error when the model is trained on additional information about

  8. Cost-effectiveness analysis of neonatal hearing screening program in china: should universal screening be prioritized?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huang Li-Hui

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Neonatal hearing screening (NHS has been routinely offered as a vital component of early childhood care in developed countries, whereas such a screening program is still at the pilot or preliminary stage as regards its nationwide implementation in developing countries. To provide significant evidence for health policy making in China, this study aims to determine the cost-effectiveness of NHS program implementation in case of eight provinces of China. Methods A cost-effectiveness model was conducted and all neonates annually born from 2007 to 2009 in eight provinces of China were simulated in this model. The model parameters were estimated from the established databases in the general hospitals or maternal and child health hospitals of these eight provinces, supplemented from the published literature. The model estimated changes in program implementation costs, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs, average cost-effectiveness ratio (ACER, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER for universal screening compared to targeted screening in eight provinces. Results and discussion A multivariate sensitivity analysis was performed to determine uncertainty in health effect estimates and cost-effectiveness ratios using a probabilistic modeling technique. Targeted strategy trended to be cost-effective in Guangxi, Jiangxi, Henan, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Hebei, Shandong, and Beijing from the level of 9%, 9%, 8%, 4%, 3%, 7%, 5%, and 2%, respectively; while universal strategy trended to be cost-effective in those provinces from the level of 70%, 70%, 48%, 10%, 8%, 28%, 15%, 4%, respectively. This study showed although there was a huge disparity in the implementation of the NHS program in the surveyed provinces, both universal strategy and targeted strategy showed cost-effectiveness in those relatively developed provinces, while neither of the screening strategy showed cost-effectiveness in those relatively developing provinces. This

  9. Hazard and Pollution Hotspots of Environmental Screening Methods, San Joaquin Valley CA, 2013, Occidental College of Los Angeles

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This layer combines the highest values of the CES, CEVA, and EJSM layers for hazard and pollution which is the burden component of the models. These models combine...

  10. FieldChopper, a new tool for automatic model generation and virtual screening based on molecular fields.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalliokoski, Tuomo; Ronkko, Toni; Poso, Antti

    2008-06-01

    Algorithms were developed for ligand-based virtual screening of molecular databases. FieldChopper (FC) is based on the discretization of the electrostatic and van der Waals field into three classes. A model is built from a set of superimposed active molecules. The similarity of the compounds in the database to the model is then calculated using matrices that define scores for comparing field values of different categories. The method was validated using 12 publicly available data sets by comparing the method to the electrostatic similarity comparison program EON. The results suggest that FC is competitive with more complex descriptors and could be used as a molecular sieve in virtual screening experiments when multiple active ligands are known.

  11. Open source large-scale high-resolution environmental modelling with GEMS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baarsma, R.J.; Alberti, K.; Marra, W.A.; Karssenberg, D.J.

    2016-01-01

    Many environmental, topographic and climate data sets are freely available at a global scale, creating the opportunities to run environmental models for every location on Earth. Collection of the data necessary to do this and the consequent conversion into a useful format is very demanding however,

  12. Calculation of radiative opacity of plasma mixtures using a relativistic screened hydrogenic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendoza, M.A.; Rubiano, J.G.; Gil, J.M.; Rodríguez, R.; Florido, R.; Espinosa, G.; Martel, P.; Mínguez, E.

    2014-01-01

    We present the code ATMED based on an average atom model and conceived for fast computing the population distribution and radiative properties of hot and dense single and multicomponent plasmas under LTE conditions. A relativistic screened hydrogenic model (RSHM), built on a new set of universal constants considering j-splitting, is used to calculate the required atomic data. The opacity model includes radiative bound–bound, bound–free, free–free, and scattering processes. Bound–bound line-shape function has contributions from natural, Doppler and electron-impact broadenings. An additional dielectronic broadening to account for fluctuations in the average level populations has been included, which improves substantially the Rosseland mean opacity results. To illustrate the main features of the code and its capabilities, calculations of several fundamental quantities of one-component plasmas and mixtures are presented, and a comparison with previously published data is performed. Results are satisfactorily compared with those predicted by more elaborate codes. - Highlights: • A new opacity code, ATMED, based on the average atom approximation is presented. • Atomic data are computed by means of a relativistic screened hydrogenic model. • An effective bound level degeneracy is included for accounting pressure ionization. • A new dielectronic line broadening is included to improve the mean opacities. • ATMED has the possibility to handle with single element and multicomponent plasmas

  13. Invited review: A position on the Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model (GLEAM).

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacLeod, M J; Vellinga, T; Opio, C; Falcucci, A; Tempio, G; Henderson, B; Makkar, H; Mottet, A; Robinson, T; Steinfeld, H; Gerber, P J

    2018-02-01

    The livestock sector is one of the fastest growing subsectors of the agricultural economy and, while it makes a major contribution to global food supply and economic development, it also consumes significant amounts of natural resources and alters the environment. In order to improve our understanding of the global environmental impact of livestock supply chains, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has developed the Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model (GLEAM). The purpose of this paper is to provide a review of GLEAM. Specifically, it explains the model architecture, methods and functionality, that is the types of analysis that the model can perform. The model focuses primarily on the quantification of greenhouse gases emissions arising from the production of the 11 main livestock commodities. The model inputs and outputs are managed and produced as raster data sets, with spatial resolution of 0.05 decimal degrees. The Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model v1.0 consists of five distinct modules: (a) the Herd Module; (b) the Manure Module; (c) the Feed Module; (d) the System Module; (e) the Allocation Module. In terms of the modelling approach, GLEAM has several advantages. For example spatial information on livestock distributions and crops yields enables rations to be derived that reflect the local availability of feed resources in developing countries. The Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model also contains a herd model that enables livestock statistics to be disaggregated and variation in livestock performance and management to be captured. Priorities for future development of GLEAM include: improving data quality and the methods used to perform emissions calculations; extending the scope of the model to include selected additional environmental impacts and to enable predictive modelling; and improving the utility of GLEAM output.

  14. ILP-2 modeling and virtual screening of an FDA-approved library:a possible anticancer therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khalili, Saeed; Mohammadpour, Hemn; Shokrollahi Barough, Mahideh; Kokhaei, Parviz

    2016-06-23

    The members of the inhibitors of apoptosis protein (IAP) family inhibit diverse components of the caspase signaling pathway, notably caspase 3, 7, and 9. ILP-2 (BIRC-8) is the most recently identified member of the IAPs, mainly interacting with caspase 9. This interaction would eventually lead to death resistance in the case of cancerous cells. Therefore, structural modeling of ILP-2 and finding applicable inhibitors of its interaction with caspase 9 are a compelling challenge. Three main protein modeling approaches along with various model refinement measures were harnessed to achieve a reliable 3D model, using state-of-the-art software. Thereafter, the selected model was employed to perform virtual screening of an FDA approved library. A model built by a combinatorial approach (homology and ab initio approaches) was chosen as the best model. Model refinement processes successfully bolstered the model quality. Virtual screening of the compound library introduced several high affinity inhibitor candidates that interact with functional residues of ILP2. Given the 3D structure of the ILP2 molecule, we found promising inhibitory molecules. In addition to high affinity towards the ILP2 molecule, these molecules interact with residues that play pivotal rules in ILP2-caspase interaction. These molecules would inhibit ILP2-caspase interaction and consequently would lead to reactivated cell apoptosis through the caspases pathway.

  15. Costs and cost effectiveness of different strategies for chlamydia screening and partner notification: an economic and mathematical modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Katy; Adams, Elisabeth; Grant, Arabella; Macleod, John; Bell, Gill; Clarke, Jan; Horner, Paddy

    2011-01-04

    To compare the cost, cost effectiveness, and sex equity of different intervention strategies within the English National Chlamydia Screening Programme. To develop a tool for calculating cost effectiveness of chlamydia control programmes at a local, national, or international level. An economic and mathematical modelling study with cost effectiveness analysis. Costs were restricted to those of screening and partner notification from the perspective of the NHS and excluded patient costs, the costs of reinfection, and costs of complications arising from initial infection. England. Population Individuals eligible for the National Chlamydia Screening Programme. Cost effectiveness of National Chlamydia Screening Programme in 2008-9 (as cost per individual tested, cost per positive diagnosis, total cost of screening, number screened, number infected, sex ratio of those tested and treated). Comparison of baseline programme with two different interventions-(i) increased coverage of primary screening in men and (ii) increased efficacy of partner notification. In 2008-9 screening was estimated to cost about £46.3m in total and £506 per infection treated. Provision for partner notification within the screening programme cost between £9 and £27 per index case, excluding treatment and testing. The model results suggest that increasing male screening coverage from 8% (baseline value) to 24% (to match female coverage) would cost an extra £22.9m and increase the cost per infection treated to £528. In contrast, increasing partner notification efficacy from 0.4 (baseline value) to 0.8 partners per index case would cost an extra £3.3m and would reduce the cost per infection diagnosed to £449. Increasing screening coverage to 24% in men would cost over six times as much as increasing partner notification to 0.8 but only treat twice as many additional infections. In the English National Chlamydia Screening Programme increasing the effectiveness of partner notification is likely

  16. Color screening effect in the quark potential model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Zongye; Yu Youwen; Shen Pengnian; Shen Xiaoyan; Dong Yubin

    1993-01-01

    By using the color confinement potential which includes the color screening effect, we studied the baryon spectra and the nucleon-nucleon interaction. The results show that the color screening effect not only improves the baryon spectrum calculation, but also can solve the long-tail problem of the color Van der Waals force. A part of the medium attraction of the nuclear force can be obtained from the color Van der Waals force. (orig.)

  17. Modeling impact of environmental factors on photovoltaic array performance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Jie; Sun, Yize; Xu, Yang [College of Mechanical Engineering, Donghua University NO.2999, North Renmin Road, Shanghai (China)

    2013-07-01

    It is represented in this paper that a methodology to model and quantify the impact of the three environmental factors, the ambient temperature, the incident irradiance and the wind speed, upon the performance of photovoltaic array operating under outdoor conditions. First, A simple correlation correlating operating temperature with the three environmental variables is validated for a range of wind speed studied, 2-8, and for irradiance values between 200 and 1000. Root mean square error (RMSE) between modeled operating temperature and measured values is 1.19% and the mean bias error (MBE) is -0.09%. The environmental factors studied influence I-V curves, P-V curves, and maximum-power outputs of photovoltaic array. The cell-to-module-to-array mathematical model for photovoltaic panels is established in this paper and the method defined as segmented iteration is adopted to solve the I-V curve expression to relate model I-V curves. The model I-V curves and P-V curves are concluded to coincide well with measured data points. The RMSE between numerically calculated maximum-power outputs and experimentally measured ones is 0.2307%, while the MBE is 0.0183%. In addition, a multivariable non-linear regression equation is proposed to eliminate the difference between numerically calculated values and measured ones of maximum power outputs over the range of high ambient temperature and irradiance at noon and in the early afternoon. In conclusion, the proposed method is reasonably simple and accurate.

  18. Purpose, Processes, Partnerships, and Products: 4Ps to advance Participatory Socio-Environmental Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, S. G.; Voinov, A. A.; Jordan, R.; Paolisso, M.

    2016-12-01

    Model-based reasoning is a basic part of human understanding, decision-making, and communication. Including stakeholders in environmental model building and analysis is an increasingly popular approach to understanding environmental change since stakeholders often hold valuable knowledge about socio-environmental dynamics and since collaborative forms of modeling produce important boundary objects used to collectively reason about environmental problems. Although the number of participatory modeling (PM) case studies and the number of researchers adopting these approaches has grown in recent years, the lack of standardized reporting and limited reproducibility have prevented PM's establishment and advancement as a cohesive field of study. We suggest a four dimensional framework that includes reporting on dimensions of: (1) the Purpose for selecting a PM approach (the why); (2) the Process by which the public was involved in model building or evaluation (the how); (3) the Partnerships formed (the who); and (4) the Products that resulted from these efforts (the what). We highlight four case studies that use common PM software-based approaches (fuzzy cognitive mapping, agent-based modeling, system dynamics, and participatory geospatial modeling) to understand human-environment interactions and the consequences of environmental changes, including bushmeat hunting in Tanzania and Cameroon, agricultural production and deforestation in Zambia, and groundwater management in India. We demonstrate how standardizing communication about PM case studies can lead to innovation and new insights about model-based reasoning in support of environmental policy development. We suggest that our 4P framework and reporting approach provides a way for new hypotheses to be identified and tested in the growing field of PM.

  19. AN INTEGRATED MODELING FRAMEWORK FOR ENVIRONMENTALLY EFFICIENT CAR OWNERSHIP AND TRIP BALANCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tao FENG

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Urban transport emissions generated by automobile trips are greatly responsible for atmospheric pollution in both developed and developing countries. To match the long-term target of sustainable development, it seems to be important to specify the feasible level of car ownership and travel demand from environmental considerations. This research intends to propose an integrated modeling framework for optimal construction of a comprehensive transportation system by taking into consideration environmental constraints. The modeling system is actually a combination of multiple essential models and illustrated by using a bi-level programming approach. In the upper level, the maximization of both total car ownership and total number of trips by private and public travel modes is set as the objective function and as the constraints, the total emission levels at all the zones are set to not exceed the relating environmental capacities. Maximizing the total trips by private and public travel modes allows policy makers to take into account trip balance to meet both the mobility levels required by travelers and the environmentally friendly transportation system goals. The lower level problem is a combined trip distribution and assignment model incorporating traveler's route choice behavior. A logit-type aggregate modal split model is established to connect the two level problems. In terms of the solution method for the integrated model, a genetic algorithm is applied. A case study is conducted using road network data and person-trip (PT data collected in Dalian city, China. The analysis results showed that the amount of environmentally efficient car ownership and number of trips by different travel modes could be obtained simultaneously when considering the zonal control of environmental capacity within the framework of the proposed integrated model. The observed car ownership in zones could be increased or decreased towards the macroscopic optimization

  20. Risk prediction models for selection of lung cancer screening candidates: A retrospective validation study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    K. ten Haaf (Kevin); J. Jeon (Jihyoun); M.C. Tammemagi (Martin); S.S. Han (Summer); C.Y. Kong (Chung Yin); S.K. Plevritis (Sylvia); E. Feuer (Eric); H.J. de Koning (Harry); E.W. Steyerberg (Ewout W.); R. Meza (Rafael)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractBackground: Selection of candidates for lung cancer screening based on individual risk has been proposed as an alternative to criteria based on age and cumulative smoking exposure (pack-years). Nine previously established risk models were assessed for their ability to identify those most

  1. Performance of third-trimester combined screening model for prediction of adverse perinatal outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miranda, J; Triunfo, S; Rodriguez-Lopez, M; Sairanen, M; Kouru, H; Parra-Saavedra, M; Crovetto, F; Figueras, F; Crispi, F; Gratacós, E

    2017-09-01

    To explore the potential value of third-trimester combined screening for the prediction of adverse perinatal outcome (APO) in the general population and among small-for-gestational-age (SGA) fetuses. This was a nested case-control study within a prospective cohort of 1590 singleton gestations undergoing third-trimester evaluation (32 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation). Maternal baseline characteristics, mean arterial blood pressure, fetoplacental ultrasound and circulating biochemical markers (placental growth factor (PlGF), lipocalin-2, unconjugated estriol and inhibin A) were assessed in all women who subsequently had an APO (n = 148) and in a control group without perinatal complications (n = 902). APO was defined as the occurrence of stillbirth, umbilical artery cord blood pH < 7.15, 5-min Apgar score < 7 or emergency operative delivery for fetal distress. Logistic regression models were developed for the prediction of APO in the general population and among SGA cases (defined as customized birth weight < 10 th centile). The prevalence of APO was 9.3% in the general population and 27.4% among SGA cases. In the general population, a combined screening model including a-priori risk (maternal characteristics), estimated fetal weight (EFW) centile, umbilical artery pulsatility index (UA-PI), estriol and PlGF achieved a detection rate for APO of 26% (area under receiver-operating characteristics curve (AUC), 0.59 (95% CI, 0.54-0.65)), at a 10% false-positive rate (FPR). Among SGA cases, a model including a-priori risk, EFW centile, UA-PI, cerebroplacental ratio, estriol and PlGF predicted 62% of APO (AUC, 0.86 (95% CI, 0.80-0.92)) at a FPR of 10%. The use of fetal ultrasound and maternal biochemical markers at 32-36 weeks provides a poor prediction of APO in the general population. Although it remains limited, the performance of the screening model is improved when applied to fetuses with suboptimal fetal growth. Copyright © 2016 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons

  2. The Integration of Environmental Education in Science Materials by Using "MOTORIC" Learning Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sukarjita, I. Wayan; Ardi, Muhammad; Rachman, Abdul; Supu, Amiruddin; Dirawan, Gufran Darma

    2015-01-01

    The research of the integration of Environmental Education in science subject matter by application of "MOTORIC" Learning models has carried out on Junior High School Kupang Nusa Tenggara Timur Indonesia. "MOTORIC" learning model is an Environmental Education (EE) learning model that collaborate three learning approach i.e.…

  3. Pharmacophore modeling, virtual screening and molecular docking of ATPase inhibitors of HSP70.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sangeetha, K; Sasikala, R P; Meena, K S

    2017-10-01

    Heat shock protein 70 is an effective anticancer target as it influences many signaling pathways. Hence the study investigated the important pharmacophore feature required for ATPase inhibitors of HSP70 by generating a ligand based pharmacophore model followed by virtual based screening and subsequent validation by molecular docking in Discovery studio V4.0. The most extrapolative pharmacophore model (hypotheses 8) consisted of four hydrogen bond acceptors. Further validation by external test set prediction identified 200 hits from Mini Maybridge, Drug Diverse, SCPDB compounds and Phytochemicals. Consequently, the screened compounds were refined by rule of five, ADMET and molecular docking to retain the best competitive hits. Finally Phytochemical compounds Muricatetrocin B, Diacetylphiladelphicalactone C, Eleutheroside B and 5-(3-{[1-(benzylsulfonyl)piperidin-4-yl]amino}phenyl)- 4-bromo-3-(carboxymethoxy)thiophene-2-carboxylic acid were obtained as leads to inhibit the ATPase activity of HSP70 in our findings and thus can be proposed for further in vitro and in vivo evaluation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Environmental Modeling and Bayesian Analysis for Assessing Human Health Impacts from Radioactive Waste Disposal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stockton, T.; Black, P.; Tauxe, J.; Catlett, K.

    2004-12-01

    Bayesian decision analysis provides a unified framework for coherent decision-making. Two key components of Bayesian decision analysis are probability distributions and utility functions. Calculating posterior distributions and performing decision analysis can be computationally challenging, especially for complex environmental models. In addition, probability distributions and utility functions for environmental models must be specified through expert elicitation, stakeholder consensus, or data collection, all of which have their own set of technical and political challenges. Nevertheless, a grand appeal of the Bayesian approach for environmental decision- making is the explicit treatment of uncertainty, including expert judgment. The impact of expert judgment on the environmental decision process, though integral, goes largely unassessed. Regulations and orders of the Environmental Protection Agency, Department Of Energy, and Nuclear Regulatory Agency orders require assessing the impact on human health of radioactive waste contamination over periods of up to ten thousand years. Towards this end complex environmental simulation models are used to assess "risk" to human and ecological health from migration of radioactive waste. As the computational burden of environmental modeling is continually reduced probabilistic process modeling using Monte Carlo simulation is becoming routinely used to propagate uncertainty from model inputs through model predictions. The utility of a Bayesian approach to environmental decision-making is discussed within the context of a buried radioactive waste example. This example highlights the desirability and difficulties of merging the cost of monitoring, the cost of the decision analysis, the cost and viability of clean up, and the probability of human health impacts within a rigorous decision framework.

  5. A comprehensive environmental impact assessment method for shale gas development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renjin Sun

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The great success of US commercial shale gas exploitation stimulates the shale gas development in China, subsequently, the corresponding supporting policies were issued in the 12th Five-Year Plan. But from the experience in the US shale gas development, we know that the resulted environmental threats are always an unavoidable issue, but no uniform and standard evaluation system has yet been set up in China. The comprehensive environment refers to the combination of natural ecological environment and external macro-environment. In view of this, we conducted a series of studies on how to set up a comprehensive environmental impact assessment system as well as the related evaluation methodology and models. First, we made an in-depth investigation into shale gas development procedures and any possible environmental impacts, and then compared, screened and modified environmental impact assessment methods for shale gas development. Also, we established an evaluating system and assessment models according to different status of the above two types of environment: the correlation matrix method was employed to assess the impacts on natural ecological environment and the optimization distance method was modified to evaluate the impacts on external macro-environment. Finally, we substitute the two subindexes into the comprehensive environmental impact assessment model and achieved the final numerical result of environmental impact assessment. This model can be used to evaluate if a shale gas project has any impact on environment, compare the impacts before and after a shale gas development project, or the impacts of different projects.

  6. Active versus passive transportation to school-differences in screen time, socio-economic position and perceived environmental characteristics in adolescent girls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mota, Jorge; Gomes, Helena; Almeida, Mariana; Ribeiro, José Carlos; Carvalho, Joana; Santos, Maria Paula

    2007-01-01

    The aims of this study were (1) to assess the relationships between transport to and from school (active vs. passive), sedentary behaviours, measures of socio-economic position and perceived environmental variables, and (2) to determine which, if any, variables were predictors of active transportation. The sample comprised 705 girls with mean age of 14.7 (SD = 1.6) years old. Questionnaires were used to describe travel mode to school and to estimate weekly television and computer use (screen time). Girls were assigned to active transportation (AT) or passive transportation (PT) groups depending on whether they walked or bicycled (AT) to and from school or travelled by car or bus (PT). Screen time was determined by the number of hours they reported watching television and using computers in the week preceding the examination, including weekends. Socio-economic position was established by parental occupation and educational level. A questionnaire assessed Perceived Neighbourhood Environments. No statistically significant differences were seen for screen time between travel groups. Occupational status of both mother (r = -0.17) and father (r = -0.15) and father's educational level (r = -0.10) were significantly and negatively associated with AT, while street connectivity (r = 0.10) was positively and significantly associated with AT. Logistic regression analysis showed that the likelihood of active commuting decreased by around 50% with increasing father's occupation (odds ratio (OR) = 0.51; p active (OR = 1.63; p active commuting to school and that street connectivity is a predictor of active transportation in adolescent girls.

  7. Breast cancer screening in an era of personalized regimens: a conceptual model and National Cancer Institute initiative for risk-based and preference-based approaches at a population level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onega, Tracy; Beaber, Elisabeth F; Sprague, Brian L; Barlow, William E; Haas, Jennifer S; Tosteson, Anna N A; D Schnall, Mitchell; Armstrong, Katrina; Schapira, Marilyn M; Geller, Berta; Weaver, Donald L; Conant, Emily F

    2014-10-01

    Breast cancer screening holds a prominent place in public health, health care delivery, policy, and women's health care decisions. Several factors are driving shifts in how population-based breast cancer screening is approached, including advanced imaging technologies, health system performance measures, health care reform, concern for "overdiagnosis," and improved understanding of risk. Maximizing benefits while minimizing the harms of screening requires moving from a "1-size-fits-all" guideline paradigm to more personalized strategies. A refined conceptual model for breast cancer screening is needed to align women's risks and preferences with screening regimens. A conceptual model of personalized breast cancer screening is presented herein that emphasizes key domains and transitions throughout the screening process, as well as multilevel perspectives. The key domains of screening awareness, detection, diagnosis, and treatment and survivorship are conceptualized to function at the level of the patient, provider, facility, health care system, and population/policy arena. Personalized breast cancer screening can be assessed across these domains with both process and outcome measures. Identifying, evaluating, and monitoring process measures in screening is a focus of a National Cancer Institute initiative entitled PROSPR (Population-based Research Optimizing Screening through Personalized Regimens), which will provide generalizable evidence for a risk-based model of breast cancer screening, The model presented builds on prior breast cancer screening models and may serve to identify new measures to optimize benefits-to-harms tradeoffs in population-based screening, which is a timely goal in the era of health care reform. © 2014 American Cancer Society.

  8. CDC’s Newborn Screening Program - Role of Laboratories

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2013-09-03

    When newborn screening started in the U.S. 50 years ago, many questioned whether it was even possible to test every baby born in every state. Today, all states screen babies for at least 29 disorders that can be detected through laboratory testing. In this podcast, Dr. Carla Cuthbert talks about CDC’s Newborn Screening Quality Assurance Program and the role laboratories play in keeping babies healthy.  Created: 9/3/2013 by National Center for Environmental Health (NCEH).   Date Released: 9/3/2013.

  9. Luminescence studies on phosphor screens

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Panayiotakis, G.; Nomikos, C.; Bakas, A.; Proimos, B.

    1994-01-01

    We report our results on x-ray phosphor screens prepared of some new materials focusing attention on their efficiency under fluoroscopy conditions, on optimization conditions and on comparisons among the various materials. All data are presented in absolute values. A theoretical model is presented, that takes into account the granular structure of the screens, permitting the explanation and prediction of the luminescence properties of the screens. (authors)

  10. High throughput ADME screening: practical considerations, impact on the portfolio and enabler of in silico ADME models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hop, Cornelis E C A; Cole, Mark J; Davidson, Ralph E; Duignan, David B; Federico, James; Janiszewski, John S; Jenkins, Kelly; Krueger, Suzanne; Lebowitz, Rebecca; Liston, Theodore E; Mitchell, Walter; Snyder, Mark; Steyn, Stefan J; Soglia, John R; Taylor, Christine; Troutman, Matt D; Umland, John; West, Michael; Whalen, Kevin M; Zelesky, Veronica; Zhao, Sabrina X

    2008-11-01

    Evaluation and optimization of drug metabolism and pharmacokinetic data plays an important role in drug discovery and development and several reliable in vitro ADME models are available. Recently higher throughput in vitro ADME screening facilities have been established in order to be able to evaluate an appreciable fraction of synthesized compounds. The ADME screening process can be dissected in five distinct steps: (1) plate management of compounds in need of in vitro ADME data, (2) optimization of the MS/MS method for the compounds, (3) in vitro ADME experiments and sample clean up, (4) collection and reduction of the raw LC-MS/MS data and (5) archival of the processed ADME data. All steps will be described in detail and the value of the data on drug discovery projects will be discussed as well. Finally, in vitro ADME screening can generate large quantities of data obtained under identical conditions to allow building of reliable in silico models.

  11. Competing risks model in screening for preeclampsia by maternal factors and biomarkers at 11-13 weeks gestation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Gorman, Neil; Wright, David; Syngelaki, Argyro; Akolekar, Ranjit; Wright, Alan; Poon, Leona C; Nicolaides, Kypros H

    2016-01-01

    Preeclampsia affects approximately 3% of all pregnancies and is a major cause of maternal and perinatal morbidity and death. In the last decade, extensive research has been devoted to early screening for preeclampsia with the aim of reducing the prevalence of the disease through pharmacologic intervention in the high-risk group starting from the first trimester of pregnancy. The purpose of this study was to develop a model for preeclampsia based on maternal demographic characteristics and medical history (maternal factors) and biomarkers. The data for this study were derived from prospective screening for adverse obstetric outcomes in women who attended for their routine first hospital visit at 11-13 weeks gestation in 2 maternity hospitals in England. We screened 35,948 singleton pregnancies that included 1058 pregnancies (2.9%) that experienced preeclampsia. Bayes theorem was used to combine the a priori risk from maternal factors with various combinations of uterine artery pulsatility index, mean arterial pressure, serum pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A, and placental growth factor multiple of the median values. Five-fold cross validation was used to assess the performance of screening for preeclampsia that delivered at preeclampsia) and ≥37 weeks gestation (term-preeclampsia) by models that combined maternal factors with individual biomarkers and their combination with screening by maternal factors alone. In pregnancies that experienced preeclampsia, the values of uterine artery pulsatility index and mean arterial pressure were increased, and the values of serum pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A and placental growth factor were decreased. For all biomarkers, the deviation from normal was greater for early than late preeclampsia; therefore, the performance of screening was related inversely to the gestational age at which delivery became necessary for maternal and/or fetal indications. Combined screening by maternal factors, uterine artery pulsatility

  12. Environmental modelling of use of treated organic waste on agricultural land

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Trine Lund; Christensen, Thomas Højlund; Schmidt, S.

    2006-01-01

    Modelling of environmental impacts from the application of treated organic municipal solid waste (MSW) in agriculture differs widely between different models for environmental assessment of waste systems. In this comparative study five models were examined concerning quantification and impact......, Denmark). DST and IWM are life cycle inventory (LCI) models, thus not performing actual impact assessment. The DST model includes only one water emission (biological oxygen demand) from compost leaching in the results and IWM considers only air emissions from avoided production of commercial fertilizers...... the different models and investigate the origin of any difference in type or magnitude of the results. The contributions from the LCI models were limited and did not depend on waste composition or local agricultural conditions. The three LCA models use the same overall approach for quantifying the impacts...

  13. Risk Profiling May Improve Lung Cancer Screening

    Science.gov (United States)

    A new modeling study suggests that individualized, risk-based selection of ever-smokers for lung cancer screening may prevent more lung cancer deaths and improve the effectiveness and efficiency of screening compared with current screening recommendations

  14. Screening diagnostic program breast cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Portnoj, L.M.; Zhakova, I.I.; Budnikova, N.V.; Rukhlyadko, E.D.

    1995-01-01

    The authors propose their screening program for detection of breast cancer. It includes the entire complex of present-day screening diagnostic methods, starting from an original system for the formation of groups at risk of breast cancer and completed by the direct diagnostic model of detection of the condition, oriented at a differentiated approach to the use of mammographic techniques. The proposed organizational and methodologic screening measures are both economic and diagnostically effective, thus meeting the principal requirements to screening programs. Screening of 8541 risk-groups patients helped detect 867 nodular formations, 244 of which were cancer and 623 benign formations. 8 refs., 3 figs.,

  15. Novel gene function revealed by mouse mutagenesis screens for models of age-related disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potter, Paul K; Bowl, Michael R; Jeyarajan, Prashanthini; Wisby, Laura; Blease, Andrew; Goldsworthy, Michelle E; Simon, Michelle M; Greenaway, Simon; Michel, Vincent; Barnard, Alun; Aguilar, Carlos; Agnew, Thomas; Banks, Gareth; Blake, Andrew; Chessum, Lauren; Dorning, Joanne; Falcone, Sara; Goosey, Laurence; Harris, Shelley; Haynes, Andy; Heise, Ines; Hillier, Rosie; Hough, Tertius; Hoslin, Angela; Hutchison, Marie; King, Ruairidh; Kumar, Saumya; Lad, Heena V; Law, Gemma; MacLaren, Robert E; Morse, Susan; Nicol, Thomas; Parker, Andrew; Pickford, Karen; Sethi, Siddharth; Starbuck, Becky; Stelma, Femke; Cheeseman, Michael; Cross, Sally H; Foster, Russell G; Jackson, Ian J; Peirson, Stuart N; Thakker, Rajesh V; Vincent, Tonia; Scudamore, Cheryl; Wells, Sara; El-Amraoui, Aziz; Petit, Christine; Acevedo-Arozena, Abraham; Nolan, Patrick M; Cox, Roger; Mallon, Anne-Marie; Brown, Steve D M

    2016-08-18

    Determining the genetic bases of age-related disease remains a major challenge requiring a spectrum of approaches from human and clinical genetics to the utilization of model organism studies. Here we report a large-scale genetic screen in mice employing a phenotype-driven discovery platform to identify mutations resulting in age-related disease, both late-onset and progressive. We have utilized N-ethyl-N-nitrosourea mutagenesis to generate pedigrees of mutagenized mice that were subject to recurrent screens for mutant phenotypes as the mice aged. In total, we identify 105 distinct mutant lines from 157 pedigrees analysed, out of which 27 are late-onset phenotypes across a range of physiological systems. Using whole-genome sequencing we uncover the underlying genes for 44 of these mutant phenotypes, including 12 late-onset phenotypes. These genes reveal a number of novel pathways involved with age-related disease. We illustrate our findings by the recovery and characterization of a novel mouse model of age-related hearing loss.

  16. In silico environmental chemical science: properties and processes from statistical and computational modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tratnyek, P. G.; Bylaska, Eric J.; Weber, Eric J.

    2017-01-01

    Quantitative structure–activity relationships (QSARs) have long been used in the environmental sciences. More recently, molecular modeling and chemoinformatic methods have become widespread. These methods have the potential to expand and accelerate advances in environmental chemistry because they complement observational and experimental data with “in silico” results and analysis. The opportunities and challenges that arise at the intersection between statistical and theoretical in silico methods are most apparent in the context of properties that determine the environmental fate and effects of chemical contaminants (degradation rate constants, partition coefficients, toxicities, etc.). The main example of this is the calibration of QSARs using descriptor variable data calculated from molecular modeling, which can make QSARs more useful for predicting property data that are unavailable, but also can make them more powerful tools for diagnosis of fate determining pathways and mechanisms. Emerging opportunities for “in silico environmental chemical science” are to move beyond the calculation of specific chemical properties using statistical models and toward more fully in silico models, prediction of transformation pathways and products, incorporation of environmental factors into model predictions, integration of databases and predictive models into more comprehensive and efficient tools for exposure assessment, and extending the applicability of all the above from chemicals to biologicals and materials.

  17. In silico environmental chemical science: properties and processes from statistical and computational modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tratnyek, Paul G; Bylaska, Eric J; Weber, Eric J

    2017-03-22

    Quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs) have long been used in the environmental sciences. More recently, molecular modeling and chemoinformatic methods have become widespread. These methods have the potential to expand and accelerate advances in environmental chemistry because they complement observational and experimental data with "in silico" results and analysis. The opportunities and challenges that arise at the intersection between statistical and theoretical in silico methods are most apparent in the context of properties that determine the environmental fate and effects of chemical contaminants (degradation rate constants, partition coefficients, toxicities, etc.). The main example of this is the calibration of QSARs using descriptor variable data calculated from molecular modeling, which can make QSARs more useful for predicting property data that are unavailable, but also can make them more powerful tools for diagnosis of fate determining pathways and mechanisms. Emerging opportunities for "in silico environmental chemical science" are to move beyond the calculation of specific chemical properties using statistical models and toward more fully in silico models, prediction of transformation pathways and products, incorporation of environmental factors into model predictions, integration of databases and predictive models into more comprehensive and efficient tools for exposure assessment, and extending the applicability of all the above from chemicals to biologicals and materials.

  18. Modeling and Simulation of Multi-scale Environmental Systems with Generalized Hybrid Petri Nets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mostafa eHerajy

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Predicting and studying the dynamics and properties of environmental systems necessitates the construction and simulation of mathematical models entailing different levels of complexities. Such type of computational experiments often require the combination of discrete and continuous variables as well as processes operating at different time scales. Furthermore, the iterative steps of constructing and analyzing environmental models might involve researchers with different background. Hybrid Petri nets may contribute in overcoming such challenges as they facilitate the implementation of systems integrating discrete and continuous dynamics. Additionally, the visual depiction of model components will inevitably help to bridge the gap between scientists with distinct expertise working on the same problem. Thus, modeling environmental systems with hybrid Petri nets enables the construction of complex processes while keeping the models comprehensible for researchers working on the same project with significantly divergent education path. In this paper we propose the utilization of a special class of hybrid Petri nets, Generalized Hybrid Petri Nets (GHPN, to model and simulate environmental systems exposing processes interacting at different time-scales. GHPN integrate stochastic and deterministic semantics as well as other types of special basic events. Moreover, a case study is presented to illustrate the use of GHPN in constructing and simulating multi-timescale environmental scenarios.

  19. Improving virtual screening predictive accuracy of Human kallikrein 5 inhibitors using machine learning models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Xingang; Bagui, Sikha; Bagui, Subhash

    2017-08-01

    The readily available high throughput screening (HTS) data from the PubChem database provides an opportunity for mining of small molecules in a variety of biological systems using machine learning techniques. From the thousands of available molecular descriptors developed to encode useful chemical information representing the characteristics of molecules, descriptor selection is an essential step in building an optimal quantitative structural-activity relationship (QSAR) model. For the development of a systematic descriptor selection strategy, we need the understanding of the relationship between: (i) the descriptor selection; (ii) the choice of the machine learning model; and (iii) the characteristics of the target bio-molecule. In this work, we employed the Signature descriptor to generate a dataset on the Human kallikrein 5 (hK 5) inhibition confirmatory assay data and compared multiple classification models including logistic regression, support vector machine, random forest and k-nearest neighbor. Under optimal conditions, the logistic regression model provided extremely high overall accuracy (98%) and precision (90%), with good sensitivity (65%) in the cross validation test. In testing the primary HTS screening data with more than 200K molecular structures, the logistic regression model exhibited the capability of eliminating more than 99.9% of the inactive structures. As part of our exploration of the descriptor-model-target relationship, the excellent predictive performance of the combination of the Signature descriptor and the logistic regression model on the assay data of the Human kallikrein 5 (hK 5) target suggested a feasible descriptor/model selection strategy on similar targets. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Multiwalled Carbon Nanotube Deposition on Model Environmental Surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deposition of multiwalled carbon nanotubes (MWNTs) on model environmental surfaces was investigated using a quartz crystal microbalance with dissipation monitoring (QCM-D). Deposition behaviors of MWNTs on positively and negatively charged surfaces were in good agreement with Der...

  1. Development of Laboratory Model Ecosystems as Early Warning Elements of Environmental Pollution

    Science.gov (United States)

    1974-12-01

    AD-AOll 851 DEVELOPMENT OF LABORATORY MODEL ECOSYSTEMS AS EARLY WARNING ELEMENTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION Robert L. Metcalf... ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION Robert L. Metcalf, Ph. D. University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Illinois INTRODUCTION Problems of environmental pollution with...house dust is unsafe to breathe (Ewing and Pearson, 1974). Most of the source of our concern about environmental pollution by trace substances relates

  2. Nuclear clustering and the electron screening puzzle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertulani, C. A.; Spitaleri, C.

    2018-01-01

    Electron screening changes appreciably the magnitude of astrophysical nuclear reactions within stars. This effect is also observed in laboratory experiments on Earth, where atomic electrons are present in the nuclear targets. Theoretical models were developed over the past 30 years and experimental measurements have been carried out to study electron screening in thermonuclear reactions. None of the theoretical models were able to explain the high values of the experimentally determined screening potentials. We explore the possibility that the "electron screening puzzle" is due to nuclear clusterization and polarization e_ects in the fusion reactions. We will discuss the supporting arguments for this scenario.

  3. Understanding the Harms and Benefits of Cancer Screening: A Model of Factors That Shape Informed Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrova, Dafina; Garcia-Retamero, Rocio; Cokely, Edward T

    2015-10-01

    Decisions about cancer screenings often involve the consideration of complex and counterintuitive evidence. We investigated psychological factors that promote the comprehension of benefits and harms associated with common cancer screenings and their influence on shared decision making. In experiment 1, 256 men received information about PSA-based prostate cancer screening. In experiment 2, 355 women received information about mammography-based breast cancer screening. In both studies, information about potential screening outcomes was provided in 1 of 3 formats: text, a fact box, or a visual aid (e.g., mortality with and without screening and rate of overdiagnosis). We modeled the interplay of comprehension, perceived risks and benefits, intention to participate in screening, and desire for shared decision making. Generally, visual aids were the most effective format, increasing comprehension by up to 18%. Improved comprehension was associated with 1) superior decision making (e.g., fewer intentions to participate in screening when it offered no benefit) and 2) more desire to share in decision making. However, comprehension of the evidence had a limited effect on experienced emotions, risk perceptions, and decision making among those participants who felt that the consequences of cancer were extremely severe. Even when information is counterintuitive and requires the integration of complex harms and benefits, user-friendly risk communications can facilitate comprehension, improve high-stakes decisions, and promote shared decision making. However, previous beliefs about the effectiveness of screening or strong fears about specific cancers may interfere with comprehension and informed decision making. © The Author(s) 2015.

  4. The Importance of Non-neuronal Cell Types in hiPSC-Based Disease Modeling and Drug Screening

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David M. Gonzalez

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Current applications of human induced pluripotent stem cell (hiPSC technologies in patient-specific models of neurodegenerative and neuropsychiatric disorders tend to focus on neuronal phenotypes. Here, we review recent efforts toward advancing hiPSCs toward non-neuronal cell types of the central nervous system (CNS and highlight their potential use for the development of more complex in vitro models of neurodevelopment and disease. We present evidence from previous works in both rodents and humans of the importance of these cell types (oligodendrocytes, microglia, astrocytes in neurological disease and highlight new hiPSC-based models that have sought to explore these relationships in vitro. Lastly, we summarize efforts toward conducting high-throughput screening experiments with hiPSCs and propose methods by which new screening platforms could be designed to better capture complex relationships between neural cell populations in health and disease.

  5. Cost-effectiveness and budget impact analyses of a colorectal cancer screening programme in a high adenoma prevalence scenario using MISCAN-Colon microsimulation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arrospide, Arantzazu; Idigoras, Isabel; Mar, Javier; de Koning, Harry; van der Meulen, Miriam; Soto-Gordoa, Myriam; Martinez-Llorente, Jose Miguel; Portillo, Isabel; Arana-Arri, Eunate; Ibarrondo, Oliver; Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris

    2018-04-25

    The Basque Colorectal Cancer Screening Programme began in 2009 and the implementation has been complete since 2013. Faecal immunological testing was used for screening in individuals between 50 and 69 years old. Colorectal Cancer in Basque country is characterized by unusual epidemiological features given that Colorectal Cancer incidence is similar to other European countries while adenoma prevalence is higher. The object of our study was to economically evaluate the programme via cost-effectiveness and budget impact analyses with microsimulation models. We applied the Microsimulation Screening Analysis (MISCAN)-Colon model to predict trends in Colorectal Cancer incidence and mortality and to quantify the short- and long-term effects and costs of the Basque Colorectal Cancer Screening Programme. The model was calibrated to the Basque demographics in 2008 and age-specific Colorectal Cancer incidence data in the Basque Cancer Registry from 2005 to 2008 before the screening begun. The model was also calibrated to the high adenoma prevalence observed for the Basque population in a previously published study. The multi-cohort approach used in the model included all the cohorts in the programme during 30 years of implementation, with lifetime follow-up. Unit costs were obtained from the Basque Health Service and both cost-effectiveness analysis and budget impact analysis were carried out. The goodness-of-fit of the model adaptation to observed programme data was evidence of validation. In the cost-effectiveness analysis, the savings from treatment were larger than the added costs due to screening. Thus, the Basque programme was dominant compared to no screening, as life expectancy increased by 29.3 days per person. The savings in the budget analysis appeared 10 years after the complete implementation of the programme. The average annual budget was €73.4 million from year 2023 onwards. This economic evaluation showed a screening intervention with a major health gain

  6. Staged anticonvulsant screening for chronic epilepsy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berdichevsky, Yevgeny; Saponjian, Yero; Park, Kyung-Il; Roach, Bonnie; Pouliot, Wendy; Lu, Kimberly; Swiercz, Waldemar; Dudek, F Edward; Staley, Kevin J

    2016-12-01

    Current anticonvulsant screening programs are based on seizures evoked in normal animals. One-third of epileptic patients do not respond to the anticonvulsants discovered with these models. We evaluated a tiered program based on chronic epilepsy and spontaneous seizures, with compounds advancing from high-throughput in vitro models to low-throughput in vivo models. Epileptogenesis in organotypic hippocampal slice cultures was quantified by lactate production and lactate dehydrogenase release into culture media as rapid assays for seizure-like activity and cell death, respectively. Compounds that reduced these biochemical measures were retested with in vitro electrophysiological confirmation (i.e., second stage). The third stage involved crossover testing in the kainate model of chronic epilepsy, with blinded analysis of spontaneous seizures after continuous electrographic recordings. We screened 407 compound-concentration combinations. The cyclooxygenase inhibitor, celecoxib, had no effect on seizures evoked in normal brain tissue but demonstrated robust antiseizure activity in all tested models of chronic epilepsy. The use of organotypic hippocampal cultures, where epileptogenesis occurs on a compressed time scale, and where seizure-like activity and seizure-induced cell death can be easily quantified with biomarker assays, allowed us to circumvent the throughput limitations of in vivo chronic epilepsy models. Ability to rapidly screen compounds in a chronic model of epilepsy allowed us to find an anticonvulsant that would be missed by screening in acute models.

  7. Luminescence studies on phosphor screens

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Panayiotakis, G; Nomikos, C; Bakas, A; Proimos, B [Medical Physics Department, University of Patras, 265 00 Patras, Greece (Greece)

    1994-12-31

    We report our results on x-ray phosphor screens prepared of some new materials focusing attention on their efficiency under fluoroscopy conditions, on optimization conditions and on comparisons among the various materials. All data are presented in absolute values. A theoretical model is presented, that takes into account the granular structure of the screens, permitting the explanation and prediction of the luminescence properties of the screens. (authors). 12 refs, 3 figs.

  8. FOOTPRINT: A Screening Model for Estimating the Area of a Plume Produced From Gasoline Containing Ethanol

    Science.gov (United States)

    FOOTPRINT is a screening model used to estimate the length and surface area of benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene (BTEX) plumes in groundwater, produced from a gasoline spill that contains ethanol.

  9. Simulation of reactive geochemical transport in groundwater using a semi-analytical screening model

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNab, Walt W.

    1997-10-01

    A reactive geochemical transport model, based on a semi-analytical solution to the advective-dispersive transport equation in two dimensions, is developed as a screening tool for evaluating the impact of reactive contaminants on aquifer hydrogeochemistry. Because the model utilizes an analytical solution to the transport equation, it is less computationally intensive than models based on numerical transport schemes, is faster, and it is not subject to numerical dispersion effects. Although the assumptions used to construct the model preclude consideration of reactions between the aqueous and solid phases, thermodynamic mineral saturation indices are calculated to provide qualitative insight into such reactions. Test problems involving acid mine drainage and hydrocarbon biodegradation signatures illustrate the utility of the model in simulating essential hydrogeochemical phenomena.

  10. Geo-inspired model: Agents vectors naturals inspired by the environmental management (AVNG of water tributaries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edwin Eduardo Millán Rojas

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Context: Management to care for the environment and the Earth (geo can be source of inspiration for developing models that allow addressing complexity issues; the objective of this research was to develop an additional aspect of the inspired models. The geoinspired model has two features, the first covering aspects related to environmental management and the behavior of natural resources, and the second has a component of spatial location associated with existing objects on the Earth's surface. Method: The approach developed in the research is descriptive and its main objective is the representation or characterization of a case study within a particular context. Results: The result was the design of a model to emulate the natural behavior of the water tributaries of the Amazon foothills, in order to extend the application of the inspired models and allow the use of elements such as geo-referencing and environmental management. The proposed geoinspired model is called “natural vectors agents inspired in environmental management”. Conclusions: The agents vectors naturals inspired by the environmental are polyform elements that can assume the behavior of environmental entities, which makes it possible to achieve progress in other fields of environmental management (use of soil, climate, flora, fauna, and link environmental issues with the structure of the proposed model.

  11. Integrated environmental modeling: a vision and roadmap for the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laniak, Gerard F.; Olchin, Gabriel; Goodall, Jonathan; Voinov, Alexey; Hill, Mary; Glynn, Pierre; Whelan, Gene; Geller, Gary; Quinn, Nigel; Blind, Michiel; Peckham, Scott; Reaney, Sim; Gaber, Noha; Kennedy, Philip R.; Hughes, Andrew

    2013-01-01

    Integrated environmental modeling (IEM) is inspired by modern environmental problems, decisions, and policies and enabled by transdisciplinary science and computer capabilities that allow the environment to be considered in a holistic way. The problems are characterized by the extent of the environmental system involved, dynamic and interdependent nature of stressors and their impacts, diversity of stakeholders, and integration of social, economic, and environmental considerations. IEM provides a science-based structure to develop and organize relevant knowledge and information and apply it to explain, explore, and predict the behavior of environmental systems in response to human and natural sources of stress. During the past several years a number of workshops were held that brought IEM practitioners together to share experiences and discuss future needs and directions. In this paper we organize and present the results of these discussions. IEM is presented as a landscape containing four interdependent elements: applications, science, technology, and community. The elements are described from the perspective of their role in the landscape, current practices, and challenges that must be addressed. Workshop participants envision a global scale IEM community that leverages modern technologies to streamline the movement of science-based knowledge from its sources in research, through its organization into databases and models, to its integration and application for problem solving purposes. Achieving this vision will require that the global community of IEM stakeholders transcend social, and organizational boundaries and pursue greater levels of collaboration. Among the highest priorities for community action are the development of standards for publishing IEM data and models in forms suitable for automated discovery, access, and integration; education of the next generation of environmental stakeholders, with a focus on transdisciplinary research, development, and

  12. Ultrafast protein structure-based virtual screening with Panther

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niinivehmas, Sanna P.; Salokas, Kari; Lätti, Sakari; Raunio, Hannu; Pentikäinen, Olli T.

    2015-10-01

    Molecular docking is by far the most common method used in protein structure-based virtual screening. This paper presents Panther, a novel ultrafast multipurpose docking tool. In Panther, a simple shape-electrostatic model of the ligand-binding area of the protein is created by utilizing the protein crystal structure. The features of the possible ligands are then compared to the model by using a similarity search algorithm. On average, one ligand can be processed in a few minutes by using classical docking methods, whereas using Panther processing takes Panther protocol can be used in several applications, such as speeding up the early phases of drug discovery projects, reducing the number of failures in the clinical phase of the drug development process, and estimating the environmental toxicity of chemicals. Panther-code is available in our web pages (http://www.jyu.fi/panther) free of charge after registration.

  13. A social identity model of pro-environmental action (SIMPEA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fritsche, Immo; Barth, Markus; Jugert, Philipp; Masson, Torsten; Reese, Gerhard

    2018-03-01

    Large-scale environmental crises are genuinely collective phenomena: they usually result from collective, rather than personal, behavior and how they are cognitively represented and appraised is determined by collectively shared interpretations (e.g., differing across ideological groups) and based on concern for collectives (e.g., humankind, future generations) rather than for individuals. Nevertheless, pro-environmental action has been primarily investigated as a personal decision-making process. We complement this research with a social identity perspective on pro-environmental action. Social identity is the human capacity to define the self in terms of "We" instead of "I," enabling people to think and act as collectives, which should be crucial given personal insufficiency to appraise and effectively respond to environmental crises. We propose a Social Identity Model of Pro-Environmental Action (SIMPEA) of how social identity processes affect both appraisal of and behavioral responses to large-scale environmental crises. We review related and pertinent research providing initial evidence for the role of 4 social identity processes hypothesized in SIMPEA. Specifically, we propose that ingroup identification, ingroup norms and goals, and collective efficacy determine environmental appraisals as well as both private and public sphere environmental action. These processes are driven by personal and collective emotions and motivations that arise from environmental appraisal and operate on both a deliberate and automatic processing level. Finally, we discuss SIMPEA's implications for the research agenda in environmental and social psychology and for interventions fostering pro-environmental action. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  14. Effects of Interventions Based on Health Behavior Models on Breast Cancer Screening Behaviors of Migrant Women in Turkey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuzcu, Ayla; Bahar, Zuhal; Gözüm, Sebahat

    2016-01-01

    Antalya is a city receiving internal and external migration in Turkey, including migrant women in need of developing breast cancer screening behaviors. The aim of this study was to develop breast cancer screening behaviors of migrant women through nursing interventions based on the Health Belief Model and the Health Promotion Model. This quasi-experimental study was conducted with 200 women (100 women in the intervention group, 100 women in the control group) in Antalya. The intervention group received training, consultancy service, and reminders and was followed up at 3 and 6 months after interventions. The rates of breast self-examination, clinical breast examination and mammography were higher at months 3 and 6 in women in the intervention group compared with the women in the control group. In the intervention group, perceptions of susceptibility and barriers decreased after the interventions, and benefit, health motivation, and self-efficacy perceptions increased. According to month 6 data, in the intervention group, the decrease of each unit in perception of barriers increased the rate of breast self-examination 0.8 times and the rate of mammography 0.7 times. An increase of each unit in health motivation increased the rate of clinical breast examination 1.3 times and the rate of mammography 1.5 times. Interventions based on health behavior models positively affected breast cancer screening behaviors of migrant women. Health motivations and perceptions of barriers are determinants in performing the screening behaviors. Migrant women should be supported more by healthcare professionals regarding recognition of breast health and disease and in transportation to screening centers in their new location.

  15. Information-sharing to promote informed choice in prenatal screening in the spirit of the SOGC clinical practice guideline: a proposal for an alternative model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanstone, Meredith; Kinsella, Elizabeth Anne; Nisker, Jeff

    2012-03-01

    The 2011 SOGC clinical practice guideline "Prenatal Screening for Fetal Aneuploidy in Singleton Pregnancies" recommends that clinicians offer prenatal screening to all pregnant women and provide counselling in a non-directive manner. Non-directive counselling is intended to facilitate autonomous decision-making and remove the clinician's views regarding a particular course of action. However, recent research in genetic counselling raises concerns that non-directive counselling is neither possible nor desirable, and that it may not be the best way to facilitate informed choice. We propose an alternative model of information-sharing specific to prenatal screening that combines attributes of the models of informative decision-making and shared decision-making. Our proposed model is intended to provide clinicians with a strategy to communicate information about prenatal screening in a way that facilitates a shared deliberative process and autonomous decision-making. Our proposed model may better prepare a pregnant woman to make an informed choice about participating in prenatal screening on the basis of her consideration of the medical information provided by her clinician and her particular circumstances and values.

  16. Astrophysical black holes in screened modified gravity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Davis, Anne-Christine; Jha, Rahul; Muir, Jessica [Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, Centre for Mathematical Sciences, University of Cambridge, Wilberforce Road, Cambridge, CB3 0WA (United Kingdom); Gregory, Ruth, E-mail: acd@damtp.cam.ac.uk, E-mail: r.a.w.gregory@durham.ac.uk, E-mail: r.jha@damtp.cam.ac.uk, E-mail: jlmuir@umich.edu [Centre for Particle Theory, South Road, Durham, DH1 3LE (United Kingdom)

    2014-08-01

    Chameleon, environmentally dependent dilaton, and symmetron gravity are three models of modified gravity in which the effects of the additional scalar degree of freedom are screened in dense environments. They have been extensively studied in laboratory, cosmological, and astrophysical contexts. In this paper, we present a preliminary investigation into whether additional constraints can be provided by studying these scalar fields around black holes. By looking at the properties of a static, spherically symmetric black hole, we find that the presence of a non-uniform matter distribution induces a non-constant scalar profile in chameleon and dilaton, but not necessarily symmetron gravity. An order of magnitude estimate shows that the effects of these profiles on in-falling test particles will be sub-leading compared to gravitational waves and hence observationally challenging to detect.

  17. Astrophysical black holes in screened modified gravity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, Anne-Christine; Jha, Rahul; Muir, Jessica; Gregory, Ruth

    2014-01-01

    Chameleon, environmentally dependent dilaton, and symmetron gravity are three models of modified gravity in which the effects of the additional scalar degree of freedom are screened in dense environments. They have been extensively studied in laboratory, cosmological, and astrophysical contexts. In this paper, we present a preliminary investigation into whether additional constraints can be provided by studying these scalar fields around black holes. By looking at the properties of a static, spherically symmetric black hole, we find that the presence of a non-uniform matter distribution induces a non-constant scalar profile in chameleon and dilaton, but not necessarily symmetron gravity. An order of magnitude estimate shows that the effects of these profiles on in-falling test particles will be sub-leading compared to gravitational waves and hence observationally challenging to detect

  18. Data for Environmental Modeling (D4EM): Background and Applications of Data Automation

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Data for Environmental Modeling (D4EM) project demonstrates the development of a comprehensive set of open source software tools that overcome obstacles to accessing data needed by automating the process of populating model input data sets with environmental data available fr...

  19. Evaluation of uncertainties in selected environmental dispersion models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Little, C.A.; Miller, C.W.

    1979-01-01

    Compliance with standards of radiation dose to the general public has necessitated the use of dispersion models to predict radionuclide concentrations in the environment due to releases from nuclear facilities. Because these models are only approximations of reality and because of inherent variations in the input parameters used in these models, their predictions are subject to uncertainty. Quantification of this uncertainty is necessary to assess the adequacy of these models for use in determining compliance with protection standards. This paper characterizes the capabilities of several dispersion models to predict accurately pollutant concentrations in environmental media. Three types of models are discussed: aquatic or surface water transport models, atmospheric transport models, and terrestrial and aquatic food chain models. Using data published primarily by model users, model predictions are compared to observations

  20. 1987 Oak Ridge model conference: Proceedings: Volume 2, Environmental protection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1987-01-01

    See the abstract for Volume I for general information on the conference. Topics discussed in Volume II include data management techiques for environmental protection efforts, the use of models in environmental auditing, in emergency plans, chemical accident emergency response, risk assessment, monitoring of waste sites, air and water monitoring of waste sites, and in training programs. (TEM)

  1. 1987 Oak Ridge model conference: Proceedings: Volume 2, Environmental protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-01-01

    See the abstract for Volume I for general information on the conference. Topics discussed in Volume II include data management techiques for environmental protection efforts, the use of models in environmental auditing, in emergency plans, chemical accident emergency response, risk assessment, monitoring of waste sites, air and water monitoring of waste sites, and in training programs

  2. Acquisition system environmental effects study. [for capillary-screen propellant retention devices

    Science.gov (United States)

    1975-01-01

    The effects of vibration, warm gas exposure, and feed system startup/shutdown fluid dynamics on capillary-screen propellant retention capabilities are quantified. The existing technology is extended to the point where quantitative conlusions in terms of design criteria may be drawn.

  3. A prediction model-based algorithm for computer-assisted database screening of adverse drug reactions in the Netherlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scholl, Joep H G; van Hunsel, Florence P A M; Hak, Eelko; van Puijenbroek, Eugène P

    2018-02-01

    The statistical screening of pharmacovigilance databases containing spontaneously reported adverse drug reactions (ADRs) is mainly based on disproportionality analysis. The aim of this study was to improve the efficiency of full database screening using a prediction model-based approach. A logistic regression-based prediction model containing 5 candidate predictors was developed and internally validated using the Summary of Product Characteristics as the gold standard for the outcome. All drug-ADR associations, with the exception of those related to vaccines, with a minimum of 3 reports formed the training data for the model. Performance was based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results were compared with the current method of database screening based on the number of previously analyzed associations. A total of 25 026 unique drug-ADR associations formed the training data for the model. The final model contained all 5 candidate predictors (number of reports, disproportionality, reports from healthcare professionals, reports from marketing authorization holders, Naranjo score). The AUC for the full model was 0.740 (95% CI; 0.734-0.747). The internal validity was good based on the calibration curve and bootstrapping analysis (AUC after bootstrapping = 0.739). Compared with the old method, the AUC increased from 0.649 to 0.740, and the proportion of potential signals increased by approximately 50% (from 12.3% to 19.4%). A prediction model-based approach can be a useful tool to create priority-based listings for signal detection in databases consisting of spontaneous ADRs. © 2017 The Authors. Pharmacoepidemiology & Drug Safety Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    M. Wasiolek

    2004-01-01

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment for the license application (TSPA-LA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA-LA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]) (TWP). This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA). This report is one of the five reports that develop input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the conceptual model and the mathematical model. The input parameter reports, shown to the right of the Biosphere Model Report in Figure 1-1, contain detailed description of the model input parameters. The output of this report is used as direct input in the ''Nominal Performance Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' and in the ''Disruptive Event Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' that calculate the values of biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the groundwater and volcanic ash exposure scenarios, respectively. The purpose of this analysis was to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or in volcanic ash). The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573])

  5. Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. Wasiolek

    2004-09-10

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment for the license application (TSPA-LA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA-LA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]) (TWP). This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA). This report is one of the five reports that develop input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the conceptual model and the mathematical model. The input parameter reports, shown to the right of the Biosphere Model Report in Figure 1-1, contain detailed description of the model input parameters. The output of this report is used as direct input in the ''Nominal Performance Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' and in the ''Disruptive Event Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' that calculate the values of biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the groundwater and volcanic ash exposure scenarios, respectively. The purpose of this analysis was to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or in volcanic ash). The analysis

  6. Curcumin Based Drug Screening for Inhibitors of NF kappa B in a Cell Model of Prostate Cancer Progression

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-02-01

    identify new and structurally diverse chemical analogs of the polyphenolic phytochemical Curcumin from the Indian herb Curcuma longa (family...AD_________________ Award Number: W81XWH-07-1-0081 TITLE: Curcumin Based Drug Screening for... Curcumin Based Drug Screening for Inhibitors of NF kappa B in a Cell Model of Prostate Cancer Progression 5b. GRANT NUMBER W81XWH-07-1-0081 5c

  7. THE EVALUATION OF DIVERSITY OF EDUCATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL MODELS OF LATVIAN RURAL SCHOOLS

    OpenAIRE

    Katane, Irēna; Laizāne, Anna

    2015-01-01

    Under conditions of changes and instability in any state rural schools are faced to look for different directions of development in order to manage in the rural areas. Thus the inner structure of rural schools becomes complex and causes formation of new educational environmental models of Latvian rural schools. The aims of the article: 1) to give substantiation of the concept model; 2) to give classification of educational environmental models of rural schools; 3) to emphasize the advantages ...

  8. A proposed model for the transfer of environmental tritium to man and tritium metabolism in model animals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saito, Masahiro; Ishida, M.R.

    1987-01-01

    To evaluate the accumulated dose in human bodies due to the environmental tritium, it is of required to establish an adequate model for the tritium transfer from the environment to man and to obtain enough information on the metabolic behaviour of tritium in animal bodies using model animal system. In this report, first we describe about a proposed model for the transfer of environmental tritium to man and secondly mention briefly about the recent works on the tritium metabolism in newborn animals which have been treated as a model system of tritium intake through food chain. (author)

  9. Evaluating the impacts of screening and smoking cessation programmes on lung cancer in a high-burden region of the USA: a simulation modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tramontano, Angela C; Sheehan, Deirdre F; McMahon, Pamela M; Dowling, Emily C; Holford, Theodore R; Ryczak, Karen; Lesko, Samuel M; Levy, David T; Kong, Chung Yin

    2016-02-29

    While the US Preventive Services Task Force has issued recommendations for lung cancer screening, its effectiveness at reducing lung cancer burden may vary at local levels due to regional variations in smoking behaviour. Our objective was to use an existing model to determine the impacts of lung cancer screening alone or in addition to increased smoking cessation in a US region with a relatively high smoking prevalence and lung cancer incidence. Computer-based simulation model. Simulated population of individuals 55 and older based on smoking prevalence and census data from Northeast Pennsylvania. Hypothetical lung cancer control from 2014 to 2050 through (1) screening with CT, (2) intensified smoking cessation or (3) a combination strategy. Primary outcomes were lung cancer mortality rates. Secondary outcomes included number of people eligible for screening and number of radiation-induced lung cancers. Combining lung cancer screening with increased smoking cessation would yield an estimated 8.1% reduction in cumulative lung cancer mortality by 2050. Our model estimated that the number of screening-eligible individuals would progressively decrease over time, indicating declining benefit of a screening-only programme. Lung cancer screening achieved a greater mortality reduction in earlier years, but was later surpassed by smoking cessation. Combining smoking cessation programmes with lung cancer screening would provide the most benefit to a population, especially considering the growing proportion of patients ineligible for screening based on current recommendations. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  10. Environmental Contamination as an Important Route for the Transmission of the Hospital Pathogen VRE: Modeling and Prediction of Classical Interventions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Wolkewitz

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Background In addition to the close contact between patients and medical staff, the contamination of surfaces plays an important role in the transmission of pathogens such as vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE. Mathematical modeling is a very convenient tool for hospital infection control as it allows the quantitative prediction of the effects of special hygiene and control interventions. Methods We present a compartmental model which describes the dynamics of transmission from patient to patient, also taking into account the interaction with medical staff and environmental contamination. Empirical data from a VRE outbreak in the onco-haematological unit at the University Medical Center Freiburg (Germany were collected with 100 consecutive admissions being followed up for 90 days. Stochastical simulations were used to predict the prevalence of patients colonised with VRE at the time when at least one of the following interventions were introduced: hand hygiene, disinfection of surfaces, cohorting, screening and antibiotic reduction. Results Graphical figures show the temporal dynamics of several simulation scenarios. If no prevention or intervention is present, simulations based on transmission models predict an expected endemic prevalence per ward of 0.83 (95% CI:0.66, 1.00 after the first infected person enters the unit. Interventions may reduce this prevalence, but only the combination of several interventions can control a VRE outbreak. Conclusions The model predicts that only the combination of several interventions can control an VRE outbreak in this setting. The inclusion of environmental contamination improves the compartmental model and allows a prediction of the efficacy of the disinfection of surfaces. These results can be applied to other settings and will therefore help to understand and control the spread of nosocomial pathogens.

  11. Towards the development of an environmental rule-based model for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The purpose of modelling was (1) to test the optimal environmental window hypothesis (characterised by 'dome-shape' formats) for the variables studied and (2) to evaluate the application of the model as a tool for recruitment prediction. The model was run under different conditions and the following results were obtained: ...

  12. Real-time GIS data model and sensor web service platform for environmental data management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Jianya; Geng, Jing; Chen, Zeqiang

    2015-01-09

    Effective environmental data management is meaningful for human health. In the past, environmental data management involved developing a specific environmental data management system, but this method often lacks real-time data retrieving and sharing/interoperating capability. With the development of information technology, a Geospatial Service Web method is proposed that can be employed for environmental data management. The purpose of this study is to determine a method to realize environmental data management under the Geospatial Service Web framework. A real-time GIS (Geographic Information System) data model and a Sensor Web service platform to realize environmental data management under the Geospatial Service Web framework are proposed in this study. The real-time GIS data model manages real-time data. The Sensor Web service platform is applied to support the realization of the real-time GIS data model based on the Sensor Web technologies. To support the realization of the proposed real-time GIS data model, a Sensor Web service platform is implemented. Real-time environmental data, such as meteorological data, air quality data, soil moisture data, soil temperature data, and landslide data, are managed in the Sensor Web service platform. In addition, two use cases of real-time air quality monitoring and real-time soil moisture monitoring based on the real-time GIS data model in the Sensor Web service platform are realized and demonstrated. The total time efficiency of the two experiments is 3.7 s and 9.2 s. The experimental results show that the method integrating real-time GIS data model and Sensor Web Service Platform is an effective way to manage environmental data under the Geospatial Service Web framework.

  13. Evaluating the reliability of predictions made using environmental transfer models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-01-01

    The development and application of mathematical models for predicting the consequences of releases of radionuclides into the environment from normal operations in the nuclear fuel cycle and in hypothetical accident conditions has increased dramatically in the last two decades. This Safety Practice publication has been prepared to provide guidance on the available methods for evaluating the reliability of environmental transfer model predictions. It provides a practical introduction of the subject and a particular emphasis has been given to worked examples in the text. It is intended to supplement existing IAEA publications on environmental assessment methodology. 60 refs, 17 figs, 12 tabs

  14. Multistate transitional models for measuring adherence to breast cancer screening: A population-based longitudinal cohort study with over two million women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutradhar, R; Gu, S; Paszat, L F

    2017-06-01

    Objective Prior work on the disparities among women in breast cancer screening adherence has been methodologically limited. This longitudinal study determines and examines the factors associated with becoming adherent. Methods In a cohort of Canadian women aged 50-74, a three-state transitional model was used to examine adherence to screening for breast cancer. The proportion of time spent being non-adherent with screening was calculated for each woman during her observation window. Using age as the time scale, a relative rate multivariable regression was implemented under the three-state transitional model, to examine the association between covariates (all time-varying) and the rate of becoming adherent. Results The cohort consisted of 2,537,960 women with a median follow-up of 8.46 years. Nearly 31% of women were continually up-to-date with breast screening. Once a woman was non-adherent, the rate of becoming adherent was higher among longer term residents (relative rate = 1.289, 95% confidence interval 1.275-1.302), those from wealthier neighbourhoods, and those who had an identifiable primary care provider who was female or had graduated in Canada. Conclusion Individual and physician-level characteristics play an important role in a woman's adherence to screening. This work improves the quality of evidence regarding disparities among women in adherence to breast cancer screening and provides a novel methodological foundation to investigate adherence for other types of screening, including cervix and colorectal cancer screening.

  15. A model-based cost-effectiveness analysis of osteoporosis screening and treatment strategy for postmenopausal Japanese women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshimura, M; Moriwaki, K; Noto, S; Takiguchi, T

    2017-02-01

    Although an osteoporosis screening program has been implemented as a health promotion project in Japan, its cost-effectiveness has yet to be elucidated fully. We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis and found that osteoporosis screening and treatment would be cost-effective for Japanese women over 60 years. The purpose of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of osteoporosis screening and drug therapy in the Japanese healthcare system for postmenopausal women with no history of fracture. A patient-level state transition model was developed to predict the outcomes of Japanese women with no previous fracture. Lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were estimated for women who receive osteoporosis screening and alendronate therapy for 5 years and those who do not receive the screening and treatments. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of the screening option compared with the no screening option was estimated. Sensitivity analyses were performed to examine the influence of parameter uncertainty on the base case results. The ICERs of osteoporosis screening and treatments for Japanese women aged 50-54, 55-59, 60-64, 65-69, 70-74, and 75-79 years were estimated to be $89,242, $64,010, $40,596, $27,697, $17,027, and $9771 per QALY gained, respectively. Deterministic sensitivity analyses showed that several parameters such as the disutility due to vertebral fracture had a significant influence on the base case results. Applying a willingness to pay of $50,000 per QALY gained, the probability that the screening option became cost-effectiveness estimated to 50.9, 56.3, 59.1, and 64.7 % for women aged 60-64, 65-69, 70-74, and 75-79 years, respectively. Scenario analyses showed that the ICER for women aged 55-59 years with at least one clinical risk factor was below $50,000 per QALY. In conclusion, dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) screening and alendronate therapy for osteoporosis would be cost-effective for

  16. Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaylie Rasmuson; Kurt Rautenstrauch

    2003-01-01

    This analysis is one of nine technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. It documents input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop Biosphere Dose Conversion Factors (BDCF). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in the biosphere Technical Work Plan (TWP, BSC 2003a). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development and therefore not available at the time this document is issued. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003b) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters. This analysis report, ANL-MGR-MD-000006, ''Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. This report defines and justifies values for twelve parameters required in the biosphere model. These parameters are related to use of contaminated groundwater to grow crops. The parameter values recommended in this report are used in the soil, plant, and carbon-14 submodels of the ERMYN

  17. A Modeling Study of the Spatial Structure of Electric Fields Generated by Electrified Clouds with Screening Layers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biagi, C. J.; Cummins, K. L.

    2015-12-01

    The growing possibility of inexpensive airborne observations of electric fields using one or more small UAVs increases the importance of understanding what can be determined about cloud electrification and associated electric fields outside cloud boundaries. If important information can be inferred from carefully selected flight paths outside of a cloud, then the aircraft and its instrumentation will be much cheaper to develop and much safer to operate. These facts have led us to revisit this long-standing topic using quasi-static, finite-element modeling inside and outside arbitrarily shaped clouds with a variety of internal charge distributions. In particular, we examine the effect of screening layers on electric fields outside of electrified clouds by comparing modeling results for charged clouds having electrical conductivities that are both equal to and lower than the surrounding clear air. The comparisons indicate that the spatial structure of the electric field is approximately the same regardless of the difference in the conductivities between the cloud and clear air and the formation of a screening layer, even for altitude-dependent electrical conductivities. This result is consistent with the numerical modeling results reported by Driscoll et al [1992]. The similarity of the spatial structure of the electric field outside of clouds with and without a screening layer suggests that "bulk" properties related to cloud electrification might be determined using measurements of the electric field at multiple locations in space outside the cloud, particularly at altitude. Finally, for this somewhat simplified model, the reduction in electric field magnitude outside the cloud due to the presence of a screening layer exhibits a simple dependence on the difference in conductivity between the cloud and clear air. These results are particularly relevant for studying clouds that are not producing lightning, such as developing thunderstorms and decaying anvils

  18. Consideration of environmental pollution in MESSAGE-type energy models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rentz, O.; Hanicke, T.; Hempelmann, R.

    1981-10-01

    Macroeconomic and microeconomic data are acquired and processed to obtain a model-adequate data base. The MESSAGE model is adapted and implemented. Modifications for specific problems are described. Aspects of environmental pollution are considered for the various energy supply concepts. The model conception is flexible with regard to new technologies, in particular in the field of primary and secondary energy sources, and to cogeneration products (district heat, electric power). (HP) [de

  19. A model for measuring the environmental sustainability of events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boggia, Antonio; Massei, Gianluca; Paolotti, Luisa; Rocchi, Lucia; Schiavi, Federico

    2018-01-15

    Like all human activities, events can generate significant pressures on environmental resources, unless they are well-managed and monitored. Therefore, it is becoming more and more important to develop models that can measure their environmental sustainability. Although increasing attention is being paid to this sector, there is currently no standard protocol or method to assess the eco-sustainability of events. This article presents an innovative assessment procedure to measure the environmental sustainability of events. It is based on several indicators, combined by means of a multi-criteria approach and aggregated into a final index, which we called METER (Measuring Events Through Environmental Research). The METER index uses nine major operational categories, divided in sub-categories and detailed items, which cover all the main aspects concerning environmental sustainability of an event and are evaluated for all its phases, i.e. planning, organisation, implementation, post event. The index is fairly analytical, and is thus able to represent the numerous aspects to be taken into consideration in the environmental assessment of an event. At the same time, it is simple to apply and user-friendly, thanks to its graphics and effective communication of the web platform within it is implemented. Moreover, METER is based on a participatory approach using the bottom-up model and on the principle of subsidiarity. All official international documents regarding sustainable development now require subsidiarity. However, it is not being currently applied as part of any certification or with any evaluation tool. Therefore, although the index is still a prototype, it represents an innovation in the field of environmental management. A simple exemplary case is presented, about a European Spring School held at University of Perugia (Italy) in 2014, in which the application of METER showed a sustainability assessment score of 638 points out of 1000, with an excellent management

  20. Diagnosing time scales of flux tower-model agreement as a function of environmental regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunsell, N. A.; Barlage, M. J.; Monaghan, A. J.

    2013-12-01

    Understanding the extent of agreement between land surface models and observations can provide insight into theoretical advancements in our understanding of land-atmosphere interactions. In particular, understanding the conditions under which models perform particularly well or poorly is essential for identifying potential model limitations. Here, we use three eddy covariance towers over different land cover to assess the agreement with the Noah and Noah-MP ("Multi-Physics") land surface models as a function of environmental variables. The data spans 2007-2012 and encompasses both normal and drought conditions. The environmental regimes are isolated using self-organizing maps (SOMs) to diagnose the relative importance of factors (soil moisture, air temperature, humidity, solar radiation, wind-speed, etc.) on the resulting water and carbon fluxes. The temporal variability of model limitations is assessed with an information theory based wavelet technique within each environmental regime. Discussion will focus on the role of predicting potential model biases as a function of environmental condition.