WorldWideScience

Sample records for environmental scenario generator

  1. The Environmental Scenario Generator (ESG: a distributed environmental data archive analysis tool

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E A Kihn

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The Environmental Scenario Generator (ESG is a network distributed software system designed to allow a user to interact with archives of environmental data for the purpose of scenario extraction, data analysis and integration with existing models that require environmental input. The ESG uses fuzzy-logic based search tools to allow a user to look for specific environmental scenarios in vast archives by specifying the search in human linguistic terms. For example, the user can specify a scenario such as a "cloud free week" or "high winds and low pressure" and then search relevant archives available across the network to get a list of matching events. The ESG hooks to existing archives of data by providing a simple communication framework and an efficient data model for exchanging data. Once data has been delivered by the distributed archives in the ESG data model, it can easily be accessed by the visualization, integration and analysis components to meet specific user requests. The ESG implementation provides a framework which can be taken as a pattern applicable to other distributed archive systems.

  2. Power generation scenarios for Nigeria: An environmental and cost assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gujba, H.; Mulugetta, Y.; Azapagic, A.

    2011-01-01

    Exploratory scenarios for the power sector in Nigeria are analysed in this paper using possible pathways within the Nigerian context and then compared against the Government's power expansion plan in the short to medium term. They include two fossil-fuel (FF and CCGT) and two sustainable-development-driven scenarios (SD1 and SD2). The results from the FF scenarios indicate this is the preferred outcome if the aim is to expand electricity access at the lowest capital costs. However, the annual costs and environmental impacts increase significantly as a consequence. The SD1 scenario, characterised by increased penetration of renewables, leads to a reduction of a wide range of environmental impacts while increasing the annual costs slightly. The SD2 scenario, also with an increased share of renewables, is preferred if the aim is to reduce GHG emissions; however, this comes at an increased annual cost. Both the SD1 and SD2 scenarios also show significant increases in the capital investment compared to the Government's plans. These results can be used to help inform future policy in the Nigerian electricity sector by showing explicitly the range of possible trade-offs between environmental impacts and economic costs both in the short and long terms. - Research Highlights: →The power sector in Nigeria is set to grow significantly in near future. →Power sector scenarios are constructed and studied using LCA and economic analysis methods and then compared against the Government's plans. →These include two fossil-fuel and two sustainable-development-driven scenarios. →The results explicitly show the trade-offs between environmental impacts and costs. →Following the fossil fuel paths will reduce capital costs but increase environmental impacts. The renewable energy paths will reduce some environmental impacts but increase the capital costs.

  3. EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

    2008-12-01

    Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants

  4. Sustainable energy-economic-environmental scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2002-03-31

    IIASA's Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies (ECS) Project has proposed a quantitative 'working definition' of sustainable development E3 (energy-economic-environmental) scenarios. ECS has proposed four criteria for sustainability: economic growth is sustained throughout the time horizon; socioeconomic inequity among world regions is reduced over the 21st century; reserves-to-production (R/P) ratio for exhaustible primary energy resources do not decline; and long-term environmental stress is mitigated. Using these criteria, 40 long-term E3 scenarios generated by ECS models were reviewed and analyzed. Amongst the conclusions drawn were: slow population growth or stabilization of global population appears to be prerequisite for sustainable development; economic growth alone does not guarantee a sustainable future; carbon intensities of total primary energy must decrease faster than the historical trend; strategies for fossil fuel consumption must aim at non-decreasing R/P ratios; and carbon emissions must be near or below today's levels at the end of this century. The analysis of sustainable development scenarios is an important step towards formulating long-term strategies aimed at climate stabilization. 6 figs., 1 tab.

  5. Forestry: Prospective Scenarios for Generating Eletricity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henrique Dias Blois

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Forestry generates in all production segments a lot of waste which is a potential power source and an opportunity for electricity generation by the use of this material. Therefore, this study represents the construction of future scenarios for the power generation sector from alternative and renewable sources in the region of Vale do Taquari and Alto da Serra do Botucaraí, in the Northern-Central region of the Stat of Rio Grande do Sul, aiming for the application of waste and by-products from forestry present in a intensive and tendentious way in economic activities within the region. By way of prospective scenarios, one will be able to observe which events are impactful on the viability of an environmental project for recovery of forestry waste to generate electricity in the region. Thereby, we used the method described by Grumbach (2000, a methodology that prospects scenarios from the participation of experts, who collaborated analyzing and proposing events that impact as strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats and their interrelationships. Also, it was evident the degree of influence and dependence between the events, which create a matrix of cross impacts. Moreover, possible future scenarios have been constructed and analyzed for demonstrating that the study area has potential events that could serve as alternatives to the sector. However, no ideal scenario has been identified for the next five years, a fact that is due to the large amount of adverse events in six out of the ten final events.

  6. External costs from electricity generation of China up to 2030 in energy and abatement scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Qingyu; Weili, Tian; Yumei, Wei; Yingxu, Chen

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents estimated external costs of electricity generation in China under different scenarios of long-term energy and environmental policies. Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) software is used to develop a simple model of electricity demand and to estimate gross electricity generation in China up to 2030 under these scenarios. Because external costs for unit of electricity from fossil fuel will vary in different government regulation periods, airborne pollutant external costs of SO 2 , NO x , PM 10 , and CO 2 from fired power plants are then estimated based on emission inventories and environmental cost for unit of pollutants, while external costs of non-fossil power generation are evaluated with external cost for unit of electricity. The developed model is run to study the impact of different energy efficiency and environmental abatement policy initiatives that would reduce total energy requirement and also reduce external costs of electricity generation. It is shown that external costs of electricity generation may reduce 24-55% with three energy policies scenarios and may further reduce by 20.9-26.7% with two environmental policies scenarios. The total reduction of external costs may reach 58.2%. (author)

  7. Electrical-Generation Scenarios for China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kypreos, S.; Krakowski, R.A.

    2002-03-01

    The China Energy Technology Program (CETP) used both optimizing and simulation energy- economic-environmental (E3) models to assess tradeoffs in the electricity-generation sector for a range of fuel, transport, generation, and distribution options. The CETP is composed of a range of technical tasks or activities, including Energy Economics Modeling (EEM, optimizations), Electric Sector Simulation (ESS, simulations), Life Cycle Analyses (LCA, externalization) of energy systems, and Multi-Criteria Decision Analyses (MCDA, integration). The scope of CETP is limited to one province (Shandong), to one economic sector (electricity), and to one energy sector (electricity). This document describes the methods, approaches, limitations, sample results, and future/needed work for the EEM ( optimization-based modeling) task that supports the overall goal of CETP. An important tool used by the EEM task is based on a Linear Programming (LP) optimization model that considers 17 electricity-generation technologies utilizing 14 fuel forms (type, composition, source) in a 7-region transportation model of China's electricity demand and supply system over the period 2000-2030; Shandong is one of the seven regions modeled. The China Regional Electricity Trade Model (CRETM) is used to examine a set of energy-environment-economy E3-driven scenarios to quantify related policy implications. The development of electricity production mixes that are optimized under realistically E3 constraints is determined through regional demands for electricity that respond to exogenous assumptions on income (GDP) and electricity prices through respective time-dependent elasticities. Constraints are applied to fuel prices, transportation limits, resource availability, introduction (penetration) rates of specific technology, and (where applicable) to local, regional, and countrywide emission rates of CO{sub 2}, SO{sub 2} and NO{sub x}. Importantly, future inter- regional energy flows are optimized with

  8. Environmental evaluation of waste management scenarios - significance of the boundaries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ghinea, C.; Petraru, M.; Bressers, Johannes T.A.; Gavrilescu, M.

    2012-01-01

    Life cycle concept was applied to analyse and assess some municipal solid waste (MSW) management scenarios in terms of environmental impacts, particularised for Iasi city, Romania, where approximately 380 kg/cap/yr of waste are generated. Currently, the management processes include temporary

  9. Techno-economic and environmental analysis of power generation expansion plan of Ghana

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Awopone, Albert K.; Zobaa, Ahmed F.; Banuenumah, Walter

    2017-01-01

    This paper examines the current electrical generation expansion plan of Ghana and compares it with proposed expansion pathways with higher penetration of Renewable Energy Technologies. An adaptation of Schwartz's Scenario Methodology was used to develop the scenarios which were then analysed using the Long-range Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model. Each of the scenarios represents policy options for generation expansion in Ghana up to 2040. Energy, economic and environmental analysis of the three alternative scenarios compared to the base scenarios was undertaken. Sensitivity results show that, if the country were to follow the generation expansion path described in the renewable energy scenarios, it could reap economic benefits of 0.5–13.23% depending on the developments in fuel prices and renewable technology capital cost. The analysis further quantifies benefits to be derived from a reduction in Greenhouse gases of the scenarios. Policy implications for the generation system of Ghana based on the results are also discussed. - Highlights: • LEAP demand projection for Ghana from 2010 to 2014. • Develop scenarios using an adaptation of Schwartz’s scenario approach. • Develop LEAP model for generation scenario. • Each scenario represents possible generation expansion strategy. • High renewable energy systems penetration results in net economic and environmental benefits.

  10. RESGen: Renewable Energy Scenario Generation Platform

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, Jan Emil Banning; Pinson, Pierre

    2016-01-01

    studies remains. Consequently, our aim here is to propose an open-source platform for space-time probabilistic forecasting of renewable energy generation (wind and solar power). This document covers both methodological and implementation aspects, to be seen as a companion document for the open......-source scenario generation platform. It can generate predictive densities, trajectories and space-time interdependencies for renewable energy generation. The underlying model works as a post-processing of point forecasts. For illustration, two setups are considered: the case of day-ahead forecasts to be issued......Space-time scenarios of renewable power generation are increasingly used as input to decision-making in operational problems. They may also be used in planning studies to account for the inherent uncertainty in operations. Similarly using scenarios to derive chance-constraints or robust...

  11. Environmental assessment of low-organic waste landfill scenarios by means of life-cycle assessment modelling (EASEWASTE)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manfredi, Simone; Christensen, Thomas Højlund; Scharff, H.

    2010-01-01

    for in the life-cycle impact assessment calculation, the small gas generation in low-organic waste landfills reduced the actual potential for energy generation and therefore the environmental savings obtained were reduced proportionally. Groundwater pollution from input of leachate was also evaluated and the WHO......The environmental performance of two low-organic waste landfill scenarios ('low-organic-energy' and 'low-organic-flare') was developed and compared with two household waste landfill scenarios ('household-energy' and 'household-flare') by means of LCA-modelling. The LCA-modelling was made for 1...

  12. Visions, Scenarios and Action Plans Towards Next Generation Tanzania Power System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alex Kyaruzi

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents strategic visions, scenarios and action plans for enhancing Tanzania Power Systems towards next generation Smart Power Grid. It first introduces the present Tanzanian power grid and the challenges ahead in terms of generation capacity, financial aspect, technical and non-technical losses, revenue loss, high tariff, aging infrastructure, environmental impact and the interconnection with the neighboring countries. Then, the current initiatives undertaken by the Tanzania government in response to the present challenges and the expected roles of smart grid in overcoming these challenges in the future with respect to the scenarios presented are discussed. The developed scenarios along with visions and recommended action plans towards the future Tanzanian power system can be exploited at all governmental levels to achieve public policy goals and help develop business opportunities by motivating domestic and international investments in modernizing the nation’s electric power infrastructure. In return, it should help build the green energy economy.

  13. Optimizing Decision Preparedness by Adapting Scenario Complexity and Automating Scenario Generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunne, Rob; Schatz, Sae; Flore, Stephen M.; Nicholson, Denise

    2011-01-01

    Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) framework proposes that experts make decisions by recognizing similarities between current decision situations and previous decision experiences. Unfortunately, military personnel arQ often presented with situations that they have not experienced before. Scenario-based training (S8T) can help mitigate this gap. However, SBT remains a challenging and inefficient training approach. To address these limitations, the authors present an innovative formulation of scenario complexity that contributes to the larger research goal of developing an automated scenario generation system. This system will enable trainees to effectively advance through a variety of increasingly complex decision situations and experiences. By adapting scenario complexities and automating generation, trainees will be provided with a greater variety of appropriately calibrated training events, thus broadening their repositories of experience. Preliminary results from empirical testing (N=24) of the proof-of-concept formula are presented, and future avenues of scenario complexity research are also discussed.

  14. Energy scenarios for Colombia - Environmental Aspects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, Ricardo A; Vesga A, Daniel R; Boman, Ulf

    2000-01-01

    The planning unit of the Colombian ministry of energy -UPME -has done an energy scenario project for Colombia with a 20-year horizon (vision year 2020) in this project the scenario methodology was used in a systemic way involving a great number of local and international energy experts. As a result four energy scenarios were designed and in all of them the possible evolution of all energy was analyzed. In this article a description of the used methodology is presented with the developed scenarios. Also a discussion of the long-range future environmental considerations in the energy sector, taking into account the developed scenarios, is presented. Finally some conclusions and recommendations are presented

  15. Environmental Assessment of Possible Future Waste Management Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yevgeniya Arushanyan

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Waste management has developed in many countries and will continue to do so. Changes towards increased recovery of resources in order to meet climate targets and for society to transition to a circular economy are important driving forces. Scenarios are important tools for planning and assessing possible future developments and policies. This paper presents a comprehensive life cycle assessment (LCA model for environmental assessments of scenarios and waste management policy instruments. It is unique by including almost all waste flows in a country and also allow for including waste prevention. The results show that the environmental impacts from future waste management scenarios in Sweden can differ a lot. Waste management will continue to contribute with environmental benefits, but less so in the more sustainable future scenarios, since the surrounding energy and transportation systems will be less polluting and also because less waste will be produced. Valuation results indicate that climate change, human toxicity and resource depletion are the most important environmental impact categories for the Swedish waste management system. Emissions of fossil CO2 from waste incineration will continue to be a major source of environmental impacts in these scenarios. The model is used for analyzing environmental impacts of several policy instruments including weight based collection fee, incineration tax, a resource tax and inclusion of waste in a green electricity certification system. The effect of the studied policy instruments in isolation are in most cases limited, suggesting that stronger policy instruments as well as combinations are necessary to reach policy goals as set out in for example the EU action plan on circular economy.

  16. Vulnerability of Hidropower Generation in Amazon's Tributaries Under Global Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Von Randow, R.; Siqueira, J. L., Jr.; Rodriguez, D. A.; Tomasella, J.; Floriano, L. E.

    2014-12-01

    The Brazilian energy sector is under continued expansion. The majority of energy power generation in the country is done through hydropower, which represents around 88% of the energy originated from renewable sources in the country. Still, only 10% of the high potential for production of the Amazon basin is currently availed, and this raises attention for the implantation of new hydropower plants in the region. When a hydropower plant is considered to be built, the natural characteristics of the region are taken into account, considering that the rainfall regime follows certain stationarity. However, under the possibility of global change, the expected capacity of the plants may be compromised. The objective of this study is to evaluate if the current hydropower plants of some Amazon River tributaries can maintain their functionality under global environmental change conditions. For that, based on the discharge data and hydropower information available by Brazilian National Agency of Water and Energy we will infer the energy potential of these hydropower dams for the historic period that will be compared with the energy potential for future discharge under global environmental change conditions. The future discharge will be generated by the Distributed Hydrological Model developed at the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (MHD-INPE), driven by different climate change scenarios projected by regional and global atmospheric models, associated with land use scenarios projected by a dynamic land use model (LUCC-ME/INPE). MHD-INPE will be calibrated through observed discharges for 1970-1990 using current land use conditions, and will generate discharges for the period of 2000 to 2050. In addition, special attention will be given to the presence of secondary forest growth in the land use scenarios in order to identify the importance of considering this use in the modelling exercise, since that use is not usually considered in hydrological modelling studies.

  17. Third generation algae biofuels in Italy by 2030: A scenario analysis using Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gambelli, Danilo; Alberti, Francesca; Solfanelli, Francesco; Vairo, Daniela; Zanoli, Raffaele

    2017-01-01

    We have analysed the potential for biofuels from microalgae in the Italian biofuels context. This scenario analysis considers alternative pathways for the adoption of biofuels from microalgae by the year 2030. The scenarios were developed using a probabilistic approach based on Bayesian networks, through a structured process for elicitation of expert knowledge. We have identified the most and least favourable scenarios in terms of the expected likelihood for the development of the market of biofuels from microalgae, through which we have focussed on the contribution of economic and policy aspects in the development of the sector. A detailed analysis of the contribution of each variable in the context of the scenarios is also provided. These data represent a starting point for the evaluation of different policy options for the future biofuel market in Italy. The best scenario shows a 75% probability that biofuels from microalgae will exceed 20% of the biofuel market by 2030. This is conditional on the improvement and development of the technological changes and environmental policies, and of the markets for bioenergy and novel foods derived from microalgae. - Highlights: • Scenarios for Third generation biofuels are modelled by Bayesian networks. • Best and worst scenarios for year 2030 are presented. • The role of environmental policy is analysed. • Energy and food-feed markets influence the share of biofuels from micro-algae.

  18. Hypothetical Scenario Generator for Fault-Tolerant Diagnosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Mark

    2007-01-01

    The Hypothetical Scenario Generator for Fault-tolerant Diagnostics (HSG) is an algorithm being developed in conjunction with other components of artificial- intelligence systems for automated diagnosis and prognosis of faults in spacecraft, aircraft, and other complex engineering systems. By incorporating prognostic capabilities along with advanced diagnostic capabilities, these developments hold promise to increase the safety and affordability of the affected engineering systems by making it possible to obtain timely and accurate information on the statuses of the systems and predicting impending failures well in advance. The HSG is a specific instance of a hypothetical- scenario generator that implements an innovative approach for performing diagnostic reasoning when data are missing. The special purpose served by the HSG is to (1) look for all possible ways in which the present state of the engineering system can be mapped with respect to a given model and (2) generate a prioritized set of future possible states and the scenarios of which they are parts.

  19. Development on quantitative safety analysis method of accident scenario. The automatic scenario generator development for event sequence construction of accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kojima, Shigeo; Onoue, Akira; Kawai, Katsunori

    1998-01-01

    This study intends to develop a more sophisticated tool that will advance the current event tree method used in all PSA, and to focus on non-catastrophic events, specifically a non-core melt sequence scenario not included in an ordinary PSA. In the non-catastrophic event PSA, it is necessary to consider various end states and failure combinations for the purpose of multiple scenario construction. Therefore it is anticipated that an analysis work should be reduced and automated method and tool is required. A scenario generator that can automatically handle scenario construction logic and generate the enormous size of sequences logically identified by state-of-the-art methodology was developed. To fulfill the scenario generation as a technical tool, a simulation model associated with AI technique and graphical interface, was introduced. The AI simulation model in this study was verified for the feasibility of its capability to evaluate actual systems. In this feasibility study, a spurious SI signal was selected to test the model's applicability. As a result, the basic capability of the scenario generator could be demonstrated and important scenarios were generated. The human interface with a system and its operation, as well as time dependent factors and their quantification in scenario modeling, was added utilizing human scenario generator concept. Then the feasibility of an improved scenario generator was tested for actual use. Automatic scenario generation with a certain level of credibility, was achieved by this study. (author)

  20. Actores sociales y ambitos de construccion de politicas ambientales Social actors and scenarios in the generation of environmental politics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Gudynas

    2001-06-01

    Full Text Available Se analiza el concepto de "actores claves" en la generación de políticas ambientales. Independientemente de la definición de actor social que se maneje, el asumir la existencia de actores claves ofrece limitaciones conceptuales y prácticas, ya que éstos son coyunturales a cada situación específica. Todos pueden ser actores claves en generar políticas ambientales cumpliendo papeles diferenciales. Como alternativa se utiliza el término de "actores destacados" y se revisan aspectos sobresalientes de varios de ellos en América Latina. Seguidamente se postula que el análisis se debe centrar en los escenarios sociales donde esos actores se pueden manifestar. Se ofrece una distinción preliminar de escenarios que permite integrar a nuevos y viejos movimientos sociales y establecer relaciones de articulación y equivalencia.The concept of "key actors" in the field of environmental politics is analyzed. Beyond the definition of social actor, the assumption of the existence of key actors implies conceptual and practical limitations, as it depends of each specific situation. Everyone could be a key actor under differential roles in the generation of environmental politics. As an alternative, the term "noteworthy actors" is used and a brief review of them in Latin America is presented. The relevant question should address the social scenarios from where these actors can express themselves. A preliminary distinction of scenarios is presented, in which old and new social movements could be integrated and relationships of articulation and equivalence could be established.

  1. An environmentally sustainable transport system in Sweden. A scenario study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brokking, P.; Emmelin, L.; Engstroem, M-G.; Nilsson, Jan-Evert; Eriksson, Gunnar; Wikberg, O.

    1997-02-01

    This is a short version of a scenario study concerning the possibilities to reach an Environmentally Sustainable Transport system in Sweden in a perspective of 30 years. The aim of the scenario study has been to describe one of several possible paths from today`s transport system to an environmentally adopted one. However, this does not imply that the task is to predict how such a transformation can be accomplished. The aim is rather to illustrate what such transformation require in the form of political decisions. The transformation of the transport system in to an environmentally adopted one, is primarily treated as a political problem, and a political perspective has accordingly been chosen for the study. In this English version of the scenario, the carbon dioxide problem is used to illuminate the many conflicts in goals and other problem that will attend an environmental adoption of the Swedish transport system, and to highlight the analytical points of departure for the scenario study. The analysis shows that it is possible to reach the national environmental goals that characterise, with given definitions, an environmentally sustainable transport system. However, this implies many severe political decisions over a long period of time, which in turn, implies a long term national consensus about the importance to reach the overall goal. Other results the scenario points out, is the risk that a policy focused on one sector leads to `solving` a problem by moving it outside systems limitations, and the limitations on a national environmental policy: Being able to count on assistance from other countries through an environmental adoption of the transport system in the European Union or globally, would drastically facilitate the environmental adoption of the Swedish transport system, through, among other things, a more rapid technological development. This indicates the necessity of promoting issues involving transportation and the environment in international

  2. Scenarios of Expansion to Electric Generation Capacity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Somoza-Cabrera

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available We show the building scenarios of expansion to electric generation capacity enough to supply the demand to 2050. We were using the LEAP facility (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System, to simulate dispatch of electricity at minimum cost. Finally, we show the cost-benefice analysis of the technologies availability, included externality and CO2 emission limited. However that we included the externals cost in this analysis, it results insufficient to closed gap between fossil and renewable technologies of electric generation. Nevertheless, in some opportunities the renewable options had very important participations in the minimal cost scenario of expansion.

  3. Scenario and multiple criteria decision analysis for energy and environmental security of military and industrial installations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karvetski, Christopher W; Lambert, James H; Linkov, Igor

    2011-04-01

    Military and industrial facilities need secure and reliable power generation. Grid outages can result in cascading infrastructure failures as well as security breaches and should be avoided. Adding redundancy and increasing reliability can require additional environmental, financial, logistical, and other considerations and resources. Uncertain scenarios consisting of emergent environmental conditions, regulatory changes, growth of regional energy demands, and other concerns result in further complications. Decisions on selecting energy alternatives are made on an ad hoc basis. The present work integrates scenario analysis and multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to identify combinations of impactful emergent conditions and to perform a preliminary benefits analysis of energy and environmental security investments for industrial and military installations. Application of a traditional MCDA approach would require significant stakeholder elicitations under multiple uncertain scenarios. The approach proposed in this study develops and iteratively adjusts a scoring function for investment alternatives to find the scenarios with the most significant impacts on installation security. A robust prioritization of investment alternatives can be achieved by integrating stakeholder preferences and focusing modeling and decision-analytical tools on a few key emergent conditions and scenarios. The approach is described and demonstrated for a campus of several dozen interconnected industrial buildings within a major installation. Copyright © 2010 SETAC.

  4. Environmental impact of PV cell waste scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogacka, M; Pikoń, K; Landrat, M

    2017-12-01

    Rapid growth of the volume of waste from PV cells is expected in the following years. The problem of its utilization seems to be the most important issue for future waste management systems. The environmental impacts of the PV recycling scenario are presented in the manuscript. The analysis is based on the LCA approach and the average data available in specialized databases for silicon standard PV cell is used. The functional unit includes parameters like: efficiency, composition, surface area. The discussion on the environmental impact change due to the location of the PV production and waste processing plants is presented in the manuscript. Additionally, the discussion on the environmental effect of substituting different energy resources with PV cells is presented in the manuscript. The analysis of the PV cell life cycle scenario presented in the article was performed using the SIMA PRO software and data from Ecoinvent 3.0 database together with additional data obtained from other sources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Assessment of environmental impacts following alternative agricultural policy scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bárlund, I; Lehtonen, H; Tattari, S

    2005-01-01

    Abstract Finnish agriculture is likely to undergo major changes in the near and intermediate future. The ifuture policy context can be examined at a general level by strategic scenario building. Computer-based modelling in combination with agricultural policy scenarios can in turn create a basis for the assessments of changes in environmental quality following possible changes in Finnish agriculture. The analysis of economic consequences is based on the DREMFIA model, which is applied to study effects of various agricultural policies on land use, animal production, and farmers' income. The model is suitable for an impact analysis covering an extended time span--here up to the year 2015. The changes in land use, obtained with the DREMFIA model assuming rational economic behaviour, form the basis when evaluating environmental impacts of different agricultural policies. The environmental impact assessment is performed using the field scale nutrient transport model ICECREAM. The modelled variables are nitrogen and phosphorus losses in surface runoff and percolation. In this paper the modelling strategy will be presented and highlighted using two case study catchments with varying environmental conditions and land use as an example. In addition, the paper identifies issues arising when connecting policy scenarios with impact modelling.

  6. Scenario analysis in environmental impact assessment: Improving explorations of the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duinker, Peter N.; Greig, Lorne A.

    2007-01-01

    Scenarios and scenario analysis have become popular approaches in organizational planning and participatory exercises in pursuit of sustainable development. However, they are little used, at least in any formal way, in environmental impact assessment (EIA). This is puzzling because EIA is a process specifically dedicated to exploring options for more-sustainable (i.e., less environmentally damaging) futures. In this paper, we review the state of the art associated with scenarios and scenario analysis, and describe two areas where scenario analysis could be particularly helpful in EIA: (a) in defining future developments for cumulative effects assessment; and (b) in considering the influence of contextual change - e.g. climate change - on impact forecasts for specific projects. We conclude by encouraging EIA practitioners to learn about the promise of scenario-based analysis and implement scenario-based methods so that EIA can become more effective in fostering sustainable development

  7. Evaluating the quality of scenarios of short-term wind power generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinson, P.; Girard, R.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Presentation of the desirable properties of wind power generation scenarios. ► Description of various evaluation frameworks (univariate, multivariate, diagnostic). ► Highlighting of the properties of current approaches to scenario generation. ► Guidelines for future evaluation/benchmark exercises. -- Abstract: Scenarios of short-term wind power generation are becoming increasingly popular as input to multistage decision-making problems e.g. multivariate stochastic optimization and stochastic programming. The quality of these scenarios is intuitively expected to substantially impact the benefits from their use in decision-making. So far however, their verification is almost always focused on their marginal distributions for each individual lead time only, thus overlooking their temporal interdependence structure. The shortcomings of such an approach are discussed. Multivariate verification tools, as well as diagnostic approaches based on event-based verification are then presented. Their application to the evaluation of various sets of scenarios of short-term wind power generation demonstrates them as valuable discrimination tools.

  8. Discerning and Addressing Environmental Failures in Policy Scenarios Using Planning Support System (PSS Technologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian Deal

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The environmental consequences of planning decisions are often undervalued. This can result from a number of potential causes: (a there might be a lack of adequate information to correctly assess environmental consequences; (b stakeholders might discount the spatial and temporal impacts; (c a failure to understand the dynamic interactions between socio-ecological systems including secondary and tertiary response mechanisms; or (d the gravity of the status quo, i.e., blindly following a traditional discourse. In this paper, we argue that a Planning Support System (PSS that enhances an assessment of environmental impacts and is integral to a community or regional planning process can help reveal the true environmental implications of scenario planning decisions, and thus improve communal planning and decision-making. We demonstrate our ideas through our experiences developing and deploying one such PSS—the Land-use Evolution and impact Assessment Model (LEAM Planning Support System. University of Illinois researchers have worked directly with government planning officials and community stakeholders to analyze alternate future development scenarios and improve the planning process through a participatory, iterative process of visioning, model tuning, simulation, and discussion. The resulting information enables an evaluation of alternative policy or investment choices and their potential environmental implications that can change the way communities both generate and use plans.

  9. Analysis of Economical and Environmental Costs for the Selection of Municipal Solid Waste Treatment and Disposal Scenarios through Multicriteria Analysis (ELECTRE Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorena De Medina-Salas

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Decision-making for the selection of treatment alternatives and landfilling of municipal solid waste (MSW is based on the experience and judgment of those management responsible, without considering multicriteria analysis. Therefore, the purpose of this research was to determine the treatment scenario and landfilling of MSW with the lowest environmental and economic costs in a medium-sized city. The methodology included the definition and data processing of the project (population, generation, and composition of MSW, for 16 years. In the design of scenarios, recycling, composting, incineration with energy recovery, and landfilling treatments were proposed; later, the combinations of treatments for each type of residue were generated. The results showed 36 scenarios, then the ELECTRE method was applied to the five with the lowest economical and environmental costs. Finally from the latter, one dominant scenario was determined: organic waste in composting; plastic, paper, and glass in recycling; and ‘others’ in landfilling. It is concluded that the final decision on the scenario is adapted to the particular conditions of the locality.

  10. Improving environmental change research with systematic techniques for qualitative scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schweizer, Vanessa Jine; Kriegler, Elmar

    2012-01-01

    Scenarios are key tools in analyses of global environmental change. Often they consist of quantitative and qualitative components, where the qualitative aspects are expressed in narrative, or storyline, form. Fundamental challenges in scenario development and use include identifying a small set of compelling storylines that span a broad range of policy-relevant futures, documenting that the assumptions embodied in the storylines are internally consistent, and ensuring that the selected storylines are sufficiently comprehensive, that is, that descriptions of important kinds of future developments are not left out. The dominant approach to scenario design for environmental change research has been criticized for lacking sufficient means of ensuring that storylines are internally consistent. A consequence of this shortcoming could be an artificial constraint on the range of plausible futures considered. We demonstrate the application of a more systematic technique for the development of storylines called the cross-impact balance (CIB) method. We perform a case study on the scenarios published in the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), which are widely used. CIB analysis scores scenarios in terms of internal consistency. It can also construct a very large number of scenarios consisting of combinations of assumptions about individual scenario elements and rank these combinations in terms of internal consistency. Using this method, we find that the four principal storylines employed in the SRES scenarios vary widely in internal consistency. One type of storyline involving highly carbon-intensive development is underrepresented in the SRES scenario set. We conclude that systematic techniques like CIB analysis hold promise for improving scenario development in global change research. (letter)

  11. Scenario tree generation and multi-asset financial optimization problems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Geyer, Alois; Hanke, Michael; Weissensteiner, Alex

    2013-01-01

    We compare two popular scenario tree generation methods in the context of financial optimization: moment matching and scenario reduction. Using a simple problem with a known analytic solution, moment matching-when ensuring absence of arbitrage-replicates this solution precisely. On the other hand...

  12. Design and evaluation of a data-driven scenario generation framework for game-based training

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Luo, L.; Yin, H.; Cai, W.; Zhong, J.; Lees, M.

    Generating suitable game scenarios that can cater for individual players has become an emerging challenge in procedural content generation. In this paper, we propose a data-driven scenario generation framework for game-based training. An evolutionary scenario generation process is designed with a

  13. Environmental sensitivity studies for Gen-IV roadmap fast reactor scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, Chang Joon

    2004-03-01

    The environmental effect of the self-sufficient fast reactor scenario, which is considered as one of the full fissile plutonium and transuranic recycle scenario in Gen-IV roadmap, has been analyzed by using the dynamic analysis method. Through the parametric calculations for the fast reactor deployment time and capacity, the environmental effects of the fuel cycle for important parameters such as the amount of spent fuel and the combined amounts of plutonium and minor actinides were estimated and compared to those of the once-through LWR fuel cycle. The results of the sensitivity calculations showed that an early deployment of the fast reactor with a high capacity can reduce the accumulation of spent fuel by up to 37%. Furthermore, the recycling of plutonium and minor actinides can reduce the key repository parameter (long term decay heat). Therefore the favorable environmental effects can be expected with the implementation of the symbiotic fast reactor scenario

  14. Optimizing cultivation of agricultural products using socio-economic and environmental scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    RaheliNamin, Behnaz; Mortazavi, Samar; Salmanmahiny, Abdolrassoul

    2016-11-01

    The combination of degrading natural conditions and resources, climate change, growing population, urban development, and competition in a global market complicate optimization of land for agricultural products. The use of pesticides and fertilizers for crop production in the agricultural fields has become excessive in the recent years and Golestan Province of Iran is no exception in this regard. For this, effective management with an efficient and cost-effective practice should be undertaken, maintaining public service at a high level and preserving the environment. Improving the production efficiency of agriculture, efficient use of water resources, decreasing the use of pesticides and fertilizers, improving farmer revenue, and conservation of natural resources are the main objectives of the allocation, ranking, and optimization of agricultural products. The goal of this paper is to use an optimization procedure to lower the negative effects of agriculture while maintaining a high production rate, which is currently a gap in the study area. We collected information about fertilizer and pesticide consumption and other data in croplands of eastern Golestan Province through face-to-face interviews with farmers to optimize cultivation of the agricultural products. The toxicity of pesticides according to LD50 was also included in the optimization model. A decision-support software system called multiple criteria analysis tool was used to simultaneously minimize consumption of water, chemical fertilizers, and pesticides and maximize socio-economic returns. Three scenarios for optimization of agricultural products were generated that alternatively emphasized on environmental and socio-economic goals. Comparing socio-economic and environmental performance of the optimized agricultural products under the three scenarios illustrated the conflict between social, economic, and environmental objectives. Of the six crops studied (wheat, barley, rice, soybeans, oilseed rape

  15. Steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Auvinen, A.; Jokiniemi, J.K.; Laehde, A.; Routamo, T.; Lundstroem, P.; Tuomisto, H.; Dienstbier, J.; Guentay, S.; Suckow, D.; Dehbi, A.; Slootman, M.; Herranz, L.; Peyres, V.; Polo, J.

    2005-01-01

    The steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) scenarios project was carried out in the EU 5th framework programme in the field of nuclear safety during years 2000-2002. The first objective of the project was to generate a comprehensive database on fission product retention in a steam generator. The second objective was to verify and develop predictive models to support accident management interventions in steam generator tube rupture sequences, which either directly lead to severe accident conditions or are induced by other sequences leading to severe accidents. The models developed for fission product retention were to be included in severe accident codes. In addition, it was shown that existing models for turbulent deposition, which is the dominating deposition mechanism in dry conditions and at high flow rates, contain large uncertainties. The results of the project are applicable to various pressurised water reactors, including vertical steam generators (western PWR) and horizontal steam generators (VVER)

  16. Projecting the environmental profile of Singapore's landfill activities: Comparisons of present and future scenarios based on LCA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khoo, Hsien H; Tan, Lester L Z; Tan, Reginald B H

    2012-05-01

    This article aims to generate the environmental profile of Singapore's Semakau landfill by comparing three different operational options associated with the life cycle stages of landfilling activities, against a 'business as usual' scenario. Before life cycle assessment or LCA is used to quantify the potential impacts from landfilling activities, an attempt to incorporate localized and empirical information into the amounts of ash and MSW sent to the landfill was made. A linear regression representation of the relationship between the mass of waste disposed and the mass of incineration ash generated was modeled from waste statistics between years 2004 and 2009. Next, the mass of individual MSW components was projected from 2010 to 2030. The LCA results highlighted that in a 'business as usual' scenario the normalized total impacts of global warming, acidification and human toxicity increased by about 2% annually from 2011 to 2030. By replacing the 8000-tonne barge with a 10000-tonne coastal bulk carrier or freighter (in scenario 2) a grand total reduction of 48% of both global warming potential and acidification can be realized by year 2030. Scenario 3 explored the importance of having a Waste Water Treatment Plant in place to reduce human toxicity levels - however, the overall long-term benefits were not as significant as scenario 2. It is shown in scenario 4 that the option of increased recycling championed over all other three scenarios in the long run, resulting in a total 58% reduction in year 2030 for the total normalized results. A separate comparison of scenarios 1-4 is also carried out for energy utilization and land use in terms of volume of waste occupied. Along with the predicted reductions in environmental burdens, an additional bonus is found in the expanded lifespan of Semakau landfill from year 2032 (base case) to year 2039. Model limitations and suggestions for improvements were also discussed. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Generating local scale land use/cover change scenarios: case studies of high-risk mountain areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malek, Žiga; Glade, Thomas; Boerboom, Luc

    2014-05-01

    The relationship between land use/cover changes and consequences to human well-being is well acknowledged and has led to higher interest of both researchers and decision makers in driving forces and consequences of such changes. For example, removal of natural vegetation cover or urban expansion resulting in new elements at risk can increase hydro-meteorological risk. This is why it is necessary to study how the land use/cover could evolve in the future. Emphasis should especially be given to areas experiencing, or expecting, high rates of socio-economic change. A suitable approach to address these changes is scenario development; it offers exploring possible futures and the corresponding environmental consequences, and aids decision-making, as it enables to analyse possible options. Scenarios provide a creative methodology to depict possible futures, resulting from existing decisions, based on different assumptions of future socio-economic development. They have been used in various disciplines and on various scales, such as flood risk and soil erosion. Several studies have simulated future scenarios of land use/cover changes at a very high success rate, however usually these approaches are tailor made for specific case study areas and fit to available data. This study presents a multi-step scenario generation framework, which can be transferable to other local scale case study areas, taking into account the case study specific consequences of land use/cover changes. Through the use of experts' and decision-makers' knowledge, we aimed to develop a framework with the following characteristics: (1) it enables development of scenarios that are plausible, (2) it can overcome data inaccessibility, (3) it can address intangible and external driving forces of land use/cover change, and (4) it ensures transferability to other local scale case study areas with different land use/cover change processes and consequences. To achieve this, a set of different methods is applied

  18. Bridging Scales: Developing a Framework to Build a City-Scale Environmental Scenario for Japanese Municipalities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashimoto, S.; Fujita, T.; Nakayama, T.; Xu, K.

    2007-12-01

    There is an ongoing project on establishing environmental scenarios in Japan to evaluate middle to long-term environmental policy and technology options toward low carbon society. In this project, the time horizon of the scenarios is set for 2050 on the ground that a large part of social infrastructure in Japan is likely to be renovated by that time, and cities are supposed to play important roles in building low carbon society in Japan. This belief is held because cities or local governments could implement various policies and programs, such as land use planning and promotion of new technologies with low GHG emissions, which produce an effect in an ununiform manner, taking local socio-economic conditions into account, while higher governments, either national or prefectural, could impose environmental tax on electricity and gas to alleviate ongoing GHG emissions, which uniformly covers their jurisdictions. In order for local governments to devise and implement concrete administrative actions equipped with rational policies and technologies, referring the environmental scenarios developed for the entire nation, we need to localize the national scenarios, both in terms of spatial and temporal extent, so that they could better reflect local socio-economic and institutional conditions. In localizing the national scenarios, the participation of stakeholders is significant because they play major roles in shaping future society. Stakeholder participation in the localization process would bring both creative and realistic inputs on how future unfolds on a city scale. In this research, 1) we reviewed recent efforts on international and domestic scenario development to set a practical time horizon for a city-scale environmental scenario, which would lead to concrete environmental policies and programs, 2) designed a participatory scenario development/localization process, drawing on the framework of the 'Story-and-Simulation' or SAS approach, which Alcamo(2001) proposed

  19. A sustainable scenario for Venezuelan power generation sector in 2050 and its costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bautista, Santiago

    2012-01-01

    The present research study used the quantitative approach to analyze the present and future situation of the Venezuelan power generation sector; to achieve that, the total energy generation costs and GHG emissions of four scenarios in 2050 were estimated and compared, considering two demand groups, high and low demand. For each demand scenario, two supply matrix were considered, a generation matrix based on the existing national power generation plans and trends (these scenarios were referred as BAU) and a configuration based on the renewable energy resources available in Venezuela and without the use of either nuclear or CCS technologies, and these scenarios are referred as Sustainable Scenarios (SUS). In the first section, the present situation is presented, followed by an explanation of the applied methodology and the implemented tools. In the third and fourth sections the available recourses and the applied basic assumptions for the four of scenarios are presented and discussed, respectively, followed by the results. In this study it is shown that Venezuela has all the resources it needs to achieve sustainable development in the power generation sector. It is also proved that an energy efficiency improvement is the easiest path to reduce GHG emissions. - Highlights: ► Venezuela has enough energy resources to supply the energy require for its development. ► A sustainable scenario is posible in Venezuelan power generation sector in 2050. ► The sustainable scenario is technically possible without nuclear power or carbon capture storage technologies. ► The impact over the depleatable resources is higher under the BAU assumptions.

  20. Reducing the environmental impact of concrete and asphalt: a scenario approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Blankendaal, T.; Schuur, Peter; Voordijk, Johannes T.

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, measures are evaluated to reduce the environmental impact of concrete and asphalt. Several composition scenarios are designed for these materials and are evaluated based on their environmental performance using life-cycle assessment (LCA). The effect of low-energy production

  1. Evaluating the quality of scenarios of short-term wind power generation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre; Girard, R.

    2012-01-01

    Scenarios of short-term wind power generation are becoming increasingly popular as input to multi-stage decision-making problems e.g. multivariate stochastic optimization and stochastic programming. The quality of these scenarios is intuitively expected to substantially impact the benets from...... their use in decision-making. So far however, their verication is almost always focused on their marginal distributions for each individual lead time only, thus overlooking their temporal interdependence structure. The shortcomings of such an approach are discussed. Multivariate verication tools, as well...... as diagnostic approaches based on event-based verication are then presented. Their application to the evaluation of various sets of scenarios of short-term wind power generation demonstrates them as valuable discrimination tools....

  2. Scenario analysis on future electricity supply and demand in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Qi; Ishihara, Keiichi N.; Mclellan, Benjamin C.; Tezuka, Tetsuo

    2012-01-01

    Under continuing policies of CO 2 emissions reduction, it is crucial to consider scenarios for Japan to realize a safe and clean future electricity system. The development plans for nuclear power and renewable energy - particularly solar and wind power - are being reconsidered in light of the Fukushima nuclear accident. To contribute to this, in the present study, three electricity supply scenarios for 2030 are proposed according to different future nuclear power development policies, and the maximum penetration of renewable energy generation is pursued. On the other side of the equation, three electricity demand scenarios are also proposed considering potential energy saving measures. The purpose of the study is to demonstrate quantitatively the technological, economic and environmental impacts of different supply policy selections and demand assumptions on future electricity systems. The scenario analysis is conducted using an input–output hour-by-hour simulation model subject to constraints from technological, economic and environmental perspectives. The obtained installed capacity mix, power generation mix, CO 2 emissions, and generation cost of the scenarios were inter-compared and analyzed. The penetration of renewable energy generation in a future electricity system in Japan, as well as its relationship with nuclear power share was uncovered. -- Highlights: ► Scenario analysis is conducted on future electricity systems under different supply policies and demand assumptions. ► Scenario analysis is conducted using a input–output hour-by-hour simulation model for real-time demand-supply balance. ► The technological, economic and environmental impacts of supply policies and demand assumptions on future electricity systems are studied. ► The maximum penetration of renewable energy generation is pursued in the scenario analysis using the hour-by-hour simulation. ► The relationship between the penetration levels of renewable energy and nuclear power

  3. A novel method for energy harvesting simulation based on scenario generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhe; Li, Taoshen; Xiao, Nan; Ye, Jin; Wu, Min

    2018-06-01

    Energy harvesting network (EHN) is a new form of computer networks. It converts ambient energy into usable electric energy and supply the electrical energy as a primary or secondary power source to the communication devices. However, most of the EHN uses the analytical probability distribution function to describe the energy harvesting process, which cannot accurately identify the actual situation for the lack of authenticity. We propose an EHN simulation method based on scenario generation in this paper. Firstly, instead of setting a probability distribution in advance, it uses optimal scenario reduction technology to generate representative scenarios in single period based on the historical data of the harvested energy. Secondly, it uses homogeneous simulated annealing algorithm to generate optimal daily energy harvesting scenario sequences to get a more accurate simulation of the random characteristics of the energy harvesting network. Then taking the actual wind power data as an example, the accuracy and stability of the method are verified by comparing with the real data. Finally, we cite an instance to optimize the network throughput, which indicate the feasibility and effectiveness of the method we proposed from the optimal solution and data analysis in energy harvesting simulation.

  4. A formal framework for scenario development in support of environmental decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Yajing; Hartmann, H.; Stewart, S.; Wagener, T.; Semmens, D.; Stewart, R.; Gupta, H.; Dominguez, D.; Dominguez, F.; Hulse, D.; Letcher, R.; Rashleigh, Brenda; Smith, C.; Street, R.; Ticehurst, J.; Twery, M.; van, Delden H.; Waldick, R.; White, D.; Winter, L.

    2009-01-01

    Scenarios are possible future states of the world that represent alternative plausible conditions under different assumptions. Often, scenarios are developed in a context relevant to stakeholders involved in their applications since the evaluation of scenario outcomes and implications can enhance decision-making activities. This paper reviews the state-of-the-art of scenario development and proposes a formal approach to scenario development in environmental decision-making. The discussion of current issues in scenario studies includes advantages and obstacles in utilizing a formal scenario development framework, and the different forms of uncertainty inherent in scenario development, as well as how they should be treated. An appendix for common scenario terminology has been attached for clarity. Major recommendations for future research in this area include proper consideration of uncertainty in scenario studies in particular in relation to stakeholder relevant information, construction of scenarios that are more diverse in nature, and sharing of information and resources among the scenario development research community. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.

  5. Environmental implications of United States coal exports: a comparative life cycle assessment of future power system scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohnengel, Barrett; Patiño-Echeverri, Dalia; Bergerson, Joule

    2014-08-19

    Stricter emissions requirements on coal-fired power plants together with low natural gas prices have contributed to a recent decline in the use of coal for electricity generation in the United States. Faced with a shrinking domestic market, many coal companies are taking advantage of a growing coal export market. As a result, U.S. coal exports hit an all-time high in 2012, fueled largely by demand in Asia. This paper presents a comparative life cycle assessment of two scenarios: a baseline scenario in which coal continues to be burned domestically for power generation, and an export scenario in which coal is exported to Asia. For the coal export scenario we focus on the Morrow Pacific export project being planned in Oregon by Ambre Energy that would ship 8.8 million tons of Powder River Basin (PRB) coal annually to Asian markets via rail, river barge, and ocean vessel. Air emissions (SOx, NOx, PM10 and CO2e) results assuming that the exported coal is burned for electricity generation in South Korea are compared to those of a business as usual case in which Oregon and Washington's coal plants, Boardman and Centralia, are retrofitted to comply with EPA emissions standards and continue their coal consumption. Findings show that although the environmental impacts of shipping PRB coal to Asia are significant, the combination of superior energy efficiency among newer South Korean coal-fired power plants and lower emissions from U.S. replacement of coal with natural gas could lead to a greenhouse gas reduction of 21% in the case that imported PRB coal replaces other coal sources in this Asian country. If instead PRB coal were to replace natural gas or nuclear generation in South Korea, greenhouse gas emissions per unit of electricity generated would increase. Results are similar for other air emissions such as SOx, NOx and PM. This study provides a framework for comparing energy export scenarios and highlights the importance of complete life cycle assessment in

  6. Statistical downscaling and future scenario generation of temperatures for Pakistan Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kazmi, Dildar Hussain; Li, Jianping; Rasul, Ghulam; Tong, Jiang; Ali, Gohar; Cheema, Sohail Babar; Liu, Luliu; Gemmer, Marco; Fischer, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    Finer climate change information on spatial scale is required for impact studies than that presently provided by global or regional climate models. It is especially true for regions like South Asia with complex topography, coastal or island locations, and the areas of highly heterogeneous land-cover. To deal with the situation, an inexpensive method (statistical downscaling) has been adopted. Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) employed for downscaling of daily minimum and maximum temperature data of 44 national stations for base time (1961-1990) and then the future scenarios generated up to 2099. Observed as well as Predictors (product of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) data were calibrated and tested on individual/multiple basis through linear regression. Future scenario was generated based on HadCM3 daily data for A2 and B2 story lines. The downscaled data has been tested, and it has shown a relatively strong relationship with the observed in comparison to ECHAM5 data. Generally, the southern half of the country is considered vulnerable in terms of increasing temperatures, but the results of this study projects that in future, the northern belt in particular would have a possible threat of increasing tendency in air temperature. Especially, the northern areas (hosting the third largest ice reserves after the Polar Regions), an important feeding source for Indus River, are projected to be vulnerable in terms of increasing temperatures. Consequently, not only the hydro-agricultural sector but also the environmental conditions in the area may be at risk, in future.

  7. Model and scenario variations in predicted number of generations of Spodoptera litura Fab. on peanut during future climate change scenario.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mathukumalli Srinivasa Rao

    Full Text Available The present study features the estimation of number of generations of tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura. Fab. on peanut crop at six locations in India using MarkSim, which provides General Circulation Model (GCM of future data on daily maximum (T.max, minimum (T.min air temperatures from six models viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with an ensemble of the six from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1. This data was used to predict the future pest scenarios following the growing degree days approach in four different climate periods viz., Baseline-1975, Near future (NF -2020, Distant future (DF-2050 and Very Distant future (VDF-2080. It is predicted that more generations would occur during the three future climate periods with significant variation among scenarios and models. Among the seven models, 1-2 additional generations were predicted during DF and VDF due to higher future temperatures in CNRM-CM3, ECHams5 & CSIRO-Mk3.5 models. The temperature projections of these models indicated that the generation time would decrease by 18-22% over baseline. Analysis of variance (ANOVA was used to partition the variation in the predicted number of generations and generation time of S. litura on peanut during crop season. Geographical location explained 34% of the total variation in number of generations, followed by time period (26%, model (1.74% and scenario (0.74%. The remaining 14% of the variation was explained by interactions. Increased number of generations and reduction of generation time across the six peanut growing locations of India suggest that the incidence of S. litura may increase due to projected increase in temperatures in future climate change periods.

  8. Probabilistic Wind Power Ramp Forecasting Based on a Scenario Generation Method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Qin [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Florita, Anthony R [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat K [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hodge, Brian S [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cui, Mingjian [University of Texas at Dallas; Feng, Cong [University of Texas at Dallas; Wang, Zhenke [University of Texas at Dallas; Zhang, Jie [University of Texas at Dallas

    2018-02-01

    Wind power ramps (WPRs) are particularly important in the management and dispatch of wind power and currently drawing the attention of balancing authorities. With the aim to reduce the impact of WPRs for power system operations, this paper develops a probabilistic ramp forecasting method based on a large number of simulated scenarios. An ensemble machine learning technique is first adopted to forecast the basic wind power forecasting scenario and calculate the historical forecasting errors. A continuous Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is used to fit the probability distribution function (PDF) of forecasting errors. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) is analytically deduced. The inverse transform method based on Monte Carlo sampling and the CDF is used to generate a massive number of forecasting error scenarios. An optimized swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract all the WPRs from the complete set of wind power forecasting scenarios. The probabilistic forecasting results of ramp duration and start-time are generated based on all scenarios. Numerical simulations on publicly available wind power data show that within a predefined tolerance level, the developed probabilistic wind power ramp forecasting method is able to predict WPRs with a high level of sharpness and accuracy.

  9. Multi-generational effects of propranolol on Daphnia magna at different environmental concentrations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, Tae-Yong; Kim, Hyun Young; Kim, Sang Don

    2015-01-01

    To evaluate the effects of propranolol on Daphnia magna (D. magna), we employed a multi-generational exposure period for eight generations and an environmentally relevant low concentration with 1.5 ng/L, 0.2 μg/L and 26 μg/L to reflect a realistic exposure scenario. Physiological endpoints were checked, including growth, number of neonates, heart rate, frequency of abdominal appendage movement and malformation rate of neonates. In the results, growth and abdominal appendage movement were affected by environmental concentration during several generations, and the responses showed consistent tendencies of response increase with concentration increase. Heart rate was the only endpoint affected throughout all exposure generations. Inhibitory and acceleratory effects on heart rate, growth and abdominal appendage movement suggest that it is necessary to cover sub-lethal endpoints of non-targeted organisms in eco-toxicity study because the physiological responses were detected at much lower concentrations than the results of traditional toxicity tests, including environmental concentration. - Highlights: • Multi-generational exposure was conducted to evaluate the effect of propranolol on Daphnia magna. • Heart rate was the only endpoint affected throughout all exposure generations. • Growth and abdominal appendage movement were affected at environmental concentrations. • Time series fluctuations in responses appeared with no tendencies throughout all generations. • It is necessary to cover sub-organismal endpoints and long-term exposure in ecotoxicity test. - Heart rate, growth and abdominal appendage movement of D. magna were affected by the multigenerational exposure of propranolol at environmental levels.

  10. Environmental impacts assessment of future electricity generating plants for the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinheiro, Ricardo Brandt; Ribeiro, Leonardo Marcio Vilela; Loures, Marcelo de Melo Gomide

    1999-01-01

    The Energy and Power Evaluation Program was used for energy planning analysis of the entire energy system of the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. The environmental impact and resource requirements were estimated with the IMPACTS module, using results obtained from the electricity generating system expansion plan generated by WASP, together with results of marketplace energy supply and demand balances over the study period (1995-2015) computed with the BALANCE module for five different scenarios. The results for the electricity generating system show that: the air emission levels increase in all scenarios: the growth rate of the economy and energy conservation are the most important factors affecting the emissions; the land use increase significantly, the new hydroelectric power plants contributing to almost the total of this increase. (author)

  11. Environmental influences on mate preferences as assessed by a scenario manipulation experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marzoli, Daniele; Moretto, Francesco; Monti, Aura; Tocci, Ornella; Roberts, S Craig; Tommasi, Luca

    2013-01-01

    Many evolutionary psychology studies have addressed the topic of mate preferences, focusing particularly on gender and cultural differences. However, the extent to which situational and environmental variables might affect mate preferences has been comparatively neglected. We tested 288 participants in order to investigate the perceived relative importance of six traits of an ideal partner (wealth, dominance, intelligence, height, kindness, attractiveness) under four different hypothetical scenarios (status quo/nowadays, violence/post-nuclear, poverty/resource exhaustion, prosperity/global well-being). An equal number of participants (36 women, 36 men) was allotted to each scenario; each was asked to allocate 120 points across the six traits according to their perceived value. Overall, intelligence was the trait to which participants assigned most importance, followed by kindness and attractiveness, and then by wealth, dominance and height. Men appraised attractiveness as more valuable than women. Scenario strongly influenced the relative importance attributed to traits, the main finding being that wealth and dominance were more valued in the poverty and post-nuclear scenarios, respectively, compared to the other scenarios. Scenario manipulation generally had similar effects in both sexes, but women appeared particularly prone to trade off other traits for dominance in the violence scenario, and men particularly prone to trade off other traits for wealth in the poverty scenario. Our results are in line with other correlational studies of situational variables and mate preferences, and represent strong evidence of a causal relationship of environmental factors on specific mate preferences, corroborating the notion of an evolved plasticity to current ecological conditions. A control experiment seems to suggest that our scenarios can be considered as realistic descriptions of the intended ecological conditions.

  12. Environmental influences on mate preferences as assessed by a scenario manipulation experiment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniele Marzoli

    Full Text Available Many evolutionary psychology studies have addressed the topic of mate preferences, focusing particularly on gender and cultural differences. However, the extent to which situational and environmental variables might affect mate preferences has been comparatively neglected. We tested 288 participants in order to investigate the perceived relative importance of six traits of an ideal partner (wealth, dominance, intelligence, height, kindness, attractiveness under four different hypothetical scenarios (status quo/nowadays, violence/post-nuclear, poverty/resource exhaustion, prosperity/global well-being. An equal number of participants (36 women, 36 men was allotted to each scenario; each was asked to allocate 120 points across the six traits according to their perceived value. Overall, intelligence was the trait to which participants assigned most importance, followed by kindness and attractiveness, and then by wealth, dominance and height. Men appraised attractiveness as more valuable than women. Scenario strongly influenced the relative importance attributed to traits, the main finding being that wealth and dominance were more valued in the poverty and post-nuclear scenarios, respectively, compared to the other scenarios. Scenario manipulation generally had similar effects in both sexes, but women appeared particularly prone to trade off other traits for dominance in the violence scenario, and men particularly prone to trade off other traits for wealth in the poverty scenario. Our results are in line with other correlational studies of situational variables and mate preferences, and represent strong evidence of a causal relationship of environmental factors on specific mate preferences, corroborating the notion of an evolved plasticity to current ecological conditions. A control experiment seems to suggest that our scenarios can be considered as realistic descriptions of the intended ecological conditions.

  13. Environmental and economic assessment of landfill gas electricity generation in Korea using LEAP model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shin, Ho-Chul; Park, Jin-Won; Kim, Ho-Seok; Shin, Eui-Soon

    2005-01-01

    As a measure to establish a climate-friendly energy system, Korean government has proposed to expand landfill gas (LFG) electricity generation capacity. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impacts of LFG electricity generation on the energy market, the cost of generating electricity and greenhouse gases emissions in Korea using a computer-based software tool called 'Long-range Energy Alternative Planning system' (LEAP) and the associated 'Technology and Environmental Database'. In order to compare LFG electricity generation with existing other generating facilities, business as usual scenario of existing power plants was surveyed, and then alternative scenario investigations were performed using LEAP model. Different alternative scenarios were considered, namely the base case with existing electricity facilities, technological improvement of gas engine and LFG maximum utilization potential with different options of gas engine (GE), gas turbine (GT), and steam turbine (ST). In the technological improvement scenario, there will be 2.86 GWh or more increase in electricity output, decrease of 45 million won (Exchange rate (1$=1200 won)). in costs, and increase of 10.3 thousand ton of CO 2 in global warming potentials due to same period (5 year) of technological improvement. In the maximum utilization potential scenario, LFG electricity generation technology is substituted for coal steam, nuclear, and combined cycle process. Annual cost per electricity product of LFG electricity facilities (GE 58MW, GT 53.5MW, and ST 54.5MW) are 45.1, 34.3, and 24.4 won/kWh, and steam turbine process is cost-saving. LFG-utilization with other forms of energy utilization reduces global warming potential by maximum 75% with compared to spontaneous emission of CH 4 . LFG electricity generation would be the good solution for CO 2 displacement over the medium term and additional energy profits

  14. A look into the future. Scenarios for distributed generation in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scheepers, M.J.J.; Timpe, C.

    2003-12-01

    Based on the analysis of the long-term historical and future technical, socio-economic and institutional dynamics of European electricity supply systems and markets, the SUSTELNET project developed scenarios for future electricity supply systems in EU Member States and Newly Associated States (NAS). These scenarios provide a background for the development of regulatory road maps, which can be used as a tool to map out a regulatory strategy, facilitating the transition of current regulation into a regulatory framework that is required for future sustainable electricity supply systems. This report describes four different scenarios for the future of electricity systems and distributed generation (DG) in Europe in a qualitative manner. Moreover, the methodology used to develop these scenarios is described as well as the impact that disruptive events may have on these scenarios

  15. Using the baseline environmental management report (BEMR) to examine alternate program scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kristofferson, K.

    1995-01-01

    The US Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Environmental Management (EM) released the first Baseline Environmental Management Report (BEMR) in March, 1995. The Congressionally-mandated report provides life-cycle cost estimates, tentative schedules, and projected activities necessary to complete DOE's Environmental Management Program. This ''base case'' estimate is based on current program assumptions and the most likely set of activities. However, since the future course of the Environmental Management Program depends upon a number of fundamental technical and policy choices, alternate program scenarios were developed. These alternate cases show the potential cost impacts of changing assumptions in four key areas: future land use, program funding and scheduling, technology development, and waste management configurations. Several cost and program evaluation tools were developed to support the analysis of these alternate cases. The objective of this paper is to describe the analytical tool kit developed to support the development of the 1995 Baseline Report and to discuss the application of these tools to evaluate alternate program scenarios

  16. Power sector scenarios for Thailand: An exploratory analysis 2002-2022

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mulugetta, Yacob; Mantajit, Nathinee; Jackson, Tim

    2007-01-01

    Power sector scenarios for Thailand are constructed in this paper to represent the range of opportunities and constraints associated with divergent set of technical and policy options. They include Business-As-Usual (BAU), No-New-Coal (NNC), and Green Futures (GF) scenarios over a 20-year period (2002-2022). The results from the BAU scenario show that fossil fuels will continue to dominate electricity generation in Thailand during the study period. Similar results are obtained for the NNC option, although the dependence shifts from coal and oil towards natural gas-based power generation. This may represent a better environmental pathway but an all out shift from coal to natural gas is likely to increase Thailand's dependence on imported fuel, making it more vulnerable to unstable global oil and gas prices. The GF scenario offers a more optimistic route that allows the country to confront its energy security dilemma whilst fulfilling its environmental commitments by giving renewable energy technologies a prominent place in the country's power generation mix. Over the study period, our result showed little difference between the three scenarios in terms of financing new generation plants despite an early misgiving about the viability of an ambitious renewable energy programme. This paper also goes beyond the financial evaluation of each scenario to provide a comparison of the scenarios in terms of their greenhouse gas emissions together with the comparative costs of emissions reductions. Indeed, if such externalities are taken into account to determine 'viability', the GF scenario represents an attractive way forward for the Thai power sector

  17. Environmental Externalities of Geological Carbon Sequestration Effects on Energy Scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smekens, K.; Van der Zwaan, B.

    2004-03-01

    Geological carbon sequestration seems one of the promising options to address, in the near term, the global problem of climate change, since carbon sequestration technologies are in principle available today and their costs are expected to be affordable. Whereas extensive technological and economic feasibility studies rightly point out the large potential of this 'clean fossil fuel' option, relatively little attention has been paid so far to the detrimental environmental externalities that the sequestering of CO2 underground could entail. This paper assesses what the relevance might be of including these external effects in long-term energy planning and scenario analyses. Our main conclusion is that, while these effects are generally likely to be relatively small, carbon sequestration externalities do matter and influence the nature of future world energy supply and consumption. More importantly, since geological carbon storage (depending on the method employed) may in some cases have substantial external impacts, in terms of both environmental damage and health risks, it is recommended that extensive studies are performed to quantify these effects. This article addresses three main questions: (1) What may energy supply look like if one accounts for large-scale CO2 sequestration in the construction of long-term energy and climate change scenarios; (2) Suppose one hypothesizes a quantification of the external environmental costs of CO2 sequestration, how do then these supposed costs affect the evolution of the energy system during the 21st century; (3) Does it matter for these scenarios whether carbon sequestration damage costs are charged directly to consumers or, instead, to electricity producers?

  18. Environmental impacts of high penetration renewable energy scenarios for Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berrill, Peter; Arvesen, Anders; Hertwich, Edgar G; Scholz, Yvonne; Gils, Hans Christian

    2016-01-01

    The prospect of irreversible environmental alterations and an increasingly volatile climate pressurises societies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, thereby mitigating climate change impacts. As global electricity demand continues to grow, particularly if considering a future with increased electrification of heat and transport sectors, the imperative to decarbonise our electricity supply becomes more urgent. This letter implements outputs of a detailed power system optimisation model into a prospective life cycle analysis framework in order to present a life cycle analysis of 44 electricity scenarios for Europe in 2050, including analyses of systems based largely on low-carbon fossil energy options (natural gas, and coal with carbon capture and storage (CCS)) as well as systems with high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) (wind and solar). VRE curtailments and impacts caused by extra energy storage and transmission capabilities necessary in systems based on VRE are taken into account. The results show that systems based largely on VRE perform much better regarding climate change and other impact categories than the investigated systems based on fossil fuels. The climate change impacts from Europe for the year 2050 in a scenario using primarily natural gas are 1400 Tg CO 2 -eq while in a scenario using mostly coal with CCS the impacts are 480 Tg CO 2 -eq. Systems based on renewables with an even mix of wind and solar capacity generate impacts of 120–140 Tg CO 2 -eq. Impacts arising as a result of wind and solar variability do not significantly compromise the climate benefits of utilising these energy resources. VRE systems require more infrastructure leading to much larger mineral resource depletion impacts than fossil fuel systems, and greater land occupation impacts than systems based on natural gas. Emissions and resource requirements from wind power are smaller than from solar power. (letter)

  19. Environmental impacts of high penetration renewable energy scenarios for Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berrill, Peter; Arvesen, Anders; Scholz, Yvonne; Gils, Hans Christian; Hertwich, Edgar G.

    2016-01-01

    The prospect of irreversible environmental alterations and an increasingly volatile climate pressurises societies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, thereby mitigating climate change impacts. As global electricity demand continues to grow, particularly if considering a future with increased electrification of heat and transport sectors, the imperative to decarbonise our electricity supply becomes more urgent. This letter implements outputs of a detailed power system optimisation model into a prospective life cycle analysis framework in order to present a life cycle analysis of 44 electricity scenarios for Europe in 2050, including analyses of systems based largely on low-carbon fossil energy options (natural gas, and coal with carbon capture and storage (CCS)) as well as systems with high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) (wind and solar). VRE curtailments and impacts caused by extra energy storage and transmission capabilities necessary in systems based on VRE are taken into account. The results show that systems based largely on VRE perform much better regarding climate change and other impact categories than the investigated systems based on fossil fuels. The climate change impacts from Europe for the year 2050 in a scenario using primarily natural gas are 1400 Tg CO2-eq while in a scenario using mostly coal with CCS the impacts are 480 Tg CO2-eq. Systems based on renewables with an even mix of wind and solar capacity generate impacts of 120-140 Tg CO2-eq. Impacts arising as a result of wind and solar variability do not significantly compromise the climate benefits of utilising these energy resources. VRE systems require more infrastructure leading to much larger mineral resource depletion impacts than fossil fuel systems, and greater land occupation impacts than systems based on natural gas. Emissions and resource requirements from wind power are smaller than from solar power.

  20. Probabilistic Wind Power Ramp Forecasting Based on a Scenario Generation Method: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Qin [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Florita, Anthony R [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat K [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hodge, Brian S [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cui, Mingjian [Univ. of Texas-Dallas, Richardson, TX (United States); Feng, Cong [Univ. of Texas-Dallas, Richardson, TX (United States); Wang, Zhenke [Univ. of Texas-Dallas, Richardson, TX (United States); Zhang, Jie [Univ. of Texas-Dallas, Richardson, TX (United States)

    2017-08-31

    Wind power ramps (WPRs) are particularly important in the management and dispatch of wind power, and they are currently drawing the attention of balancing authorities. With the aim to reduce the impact of WPRs for power system operations, this paper develops a probabilistic ramp forecasting method based on a large number of simulated scenarios. An ensemble machine learning technique is first adopted to forecast the basic wind power forecasting scenario and calculate the historical forecasting errors. A continuous Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is used to fit the probability distribution function (PDF) of forecasting errors. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) is analytically deduced. The inverse transform method based on Monte Carlo sampling and the CDF is used to generate a massive number of forecasting error scenarios. An optimized swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract all the WPRs from the complete set of wind power forecasting scenarios. The probabilistic forecasting results of ramp duration and start time are generated based on all scenarios. Numerical simulations on publicly available wind power data show that within a predefined tolerance level, the developed probabilistic wind power ramp forecasting method is able to predict WPRs with a high level of sharpness and accuracy.

  1. A methodology to generate statistically dependent wind speed scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morales, J.M.; Conejo, A.J. [Department of Electrical Engineering, Univ. Castilla - La Mancha, Campus Universitario s/n, 13071 Ciudad Real (Spain); Minguez, R. [Environmental Hydraulics Institute ' ' IH Cantabria' ' , Univ. Cantabria, Avenida de los Castros s/n, 39005 Santander (Spain)

    2010-03-15

    Wind power - a renewable energy source increasingly attractive from an economic viewpoint - constitutes an electricity production alternative of growing relevance in current electric energy systems. However, wind power is an intermittent source that cannot be dispatched at the will of the producer. Modeling wind power production requires characterizing wind speed at the sites where the wind farms are located. The wind speed at a particular location can be described through a stochastic process that is spatially correlated with the stochastic processes describing wind speeds at other locations. This paper provides a methodology to characterize the stochastic processes pertaining to wind speed at different geographical locations via scenarios. Each one of these scenarios embodies time dependencies and is spatially dependent of the scenarios describing other wind stochastic processes. The scenarios generated by the proposed methodology are intended to be used within stochastic programming decision models to make informed decisions pertaining to wind power production. The methodology proposed is accurate in reproducing wind speed historical series as well as computationally efficient. A comprehensive case study is used to illustrate the capabilities of the proposed methodology. Appropriate conclusions are finally drawn. (author)

  2. A methodology to generate statistically dependent wind speed scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morales, J.M.; Minguez, R.; Conejo, A.J.

    2010-01-01

    Wind power - a renewable energy source increasingly attractive from an economic viewpoint - constitutes an electricity production alternative of growing relevance in current electric energy systems. However, wind power is an intermittent source that cannot be dispatched at the will of the producer. Modeling wind power production requires characterizing wind speed at the sites where the wind farms are located. The wind speed at a particular location can be described through a stochastic process that is spatially correlated with the stochastic processes describing wind speeds at other locations. This paper provides a methodology to characterize the stochastic processes pertaining to wind speed at different geographical locations via scenarios. Each one of these scenarios embodies time dependencies and is spatially dependent of the scenarios describing other wind stochastic processes. The scenarios generated by the proposed methodology are intended to be used within stochastic programming decision models to make informed decisions pertaining to wind power production. The methodology proposed is accurate in reproducing wind speed historical series as well as computationally efficient. A comprehensive case study is used to illustrate the capabilities of the proposed methodology. Appropriate conclusions are finally drawn.

  3. Combination of equilibrium models and hybrid life cycle-input–output analysis to predict the environmental impacts of energy policy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Igos, Elorri; Rugani, Benedetto; Rege, Sameer; Benetto, Enrico; Drouet, Laurent; Zachary, Daniel S.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • The environmental impacts of two energy policy scenarios in Luxembourg are assessed. • Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) and Partial Equilibrium (PE) models are used. • Results from coupling of CGE and PE are integrated in hybrid Life Cycle Assessment. • Impacts due to energy related production and imports are likely to grow over time. • Carbon mitigation policies seem to not substantially decrease the impacts’ trend. - Abstract: Nowadays, many countries adopt an active agenda to mitigate the impact of greenhouse gas emissions by moving towards less polluting energy generation technologies. The environmental costs, directly or indirectly generated to achieve such a challenging objective, remain however largely underexplored. Until now, research has focused either on pure economic approaches such as Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) and partial equilibrium (PE) models, or on (physical) energy supply scenarios. These latter could be used to evaluate the environmental impacts of various energy saving or cleaner technologies via Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology. These modelling efforts have, however, been pursued in isolation, without exploring the possible complementarities and synergies. In this study, we have undertaken a practical combination of these approaches into a common framework: on the one hand, by coupling a CGE with a PE model, and, on the other hand, by linking the outcomes from the coupling with a hybrid input–output−process based life cycle inventory. The methodological framework aimed at assessing the environmental consequences of two energy policy scenarios in Luxembourg between 2010 and 2025. The study highlights the potential of coupling CGE and PE models but also the related methodological difficulties (e.g. small number of available technologies in Luxembourg, intrinsic limitations of the two approaches, etc.). The assessment shows both environmental synergies and trade-offs due to the implementation of

  4. Impacts of environmental degradation and climate change on electricity generation in Malawi

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaunda, Chiyembekezo S. [Department of Energy and Process Engineering – WaterPower Laboratory, Norway University of Science and Technology, Trondheim NO-7491 (Norway); Mtalo, Felix [Department of Water Resources Engineering, University of Dar es Salaam, P.O. Box 35031, Dar es Salaam (Tanzania, United Republic of)

    2013-07-01

    Hydropower is an important energy source in Malawi because it provides almost all of the country’s electricity generation capacity. This paper has reviewed the impacts of environmental degradation and climate change on hydropower generation in Malawi. Energy scenario and other issues that contribute towards the current state of environment have been discussed. All of Malawi’s hydropower stations are run-of-river schemes cascaded along the Shire River with an installed capacity of nearly 280 MW. The generation is impacted negatively by floods, siltation, droughts and aquatic weeds infestation. The way how these challenges are being exacerbated by the poor state of the environment, especially within the Shire River basin in particular is also discussed in the paper. Measures taken by the national electricity utility company on how to manage the impacts are discussed as well. The paper concludes that hydropower generation system in a highly environmental degraded area is difficult to manage both technically and economically. In the case of Malawi, diversifying to other energy sources of generating electricity is considered to be a viable option. Some mitigation measures concerning environment degradation and climate change challenges have been suggested in the paper.

  5. Generation of statistical scenarios of short-term wind power production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre; Papaefthymiou, George; Klockl, Bernd

    2007-01-01

    Short-term (up to 2-3 days ahead) probabilistic forecasts of wind power provide forecast users with a paramount information on the uncertainty of expected wind generation. Whatever the type of these probabilistic forecasts, they are produced on a per horizon basis, and hence do not inform...... on the development of the forecast uncertainty through forecast series. This issue is addressed here by describing a method that permits to generate statistical scenarios of wind generation that accounts for the interdependence structure of prediction errors, in plus of respecting predictive distributions of wind...

  6. Environmental and economic assessment of protected crops in four European scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Torrellas, M.; Antón, A.; Ruijs, M.N.A.; Garcia Victoria, N.; Stanghellini, C.; Montero, J.I.

    2012-01-01

    In this study we analysed the environmental and economic profile of current agricultural practices for greenhouse crops, in cold and warm climates in Europe, using four scenarios as reference systems: tomato crop in a plastic greenhouse in Spain, and in glasshouses in Hungary and the Netherlands,

  7. Comparison of environmental performance for different waste management scenarios in East Africa: The case of Kampala City, Uganda

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oyoo, R.; Leemans, R.; Mol, A.P.J.

    2014-01-01

    Poor waste flows management in East African cities has become an environmental and public health concerns to the city authorities and the general public. We assessed the environmental impacts of waste recycling in Kampala City, for four designed waste management scenarios, namely: (1) Scenario S1

  8. Environmental impact assessment and monetary ecosystem service valuation of an ecosystem under different future environmental change and management scenarios; a case study of a Scots pine forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaubroeck, Thomas; Deckmyn, Gaby; Giot, Olivier; Campioli, Matteo; Vanpoucke, Charlotte; Verheyen, Kris; Rugani, Benedetto; Achten, Wouter; Verbeeck, Hans; Dewulf, Jo; Muys, Bart

    2016-05-15

    For a sustainable future, we must sustainably manage not only the human/industrial system but also ecosystems. To achieve the latter goal, we need to predict the responses of ecosystems and their provided services to management practices under changing environmental conditions via ecosystem models and use tools to compare the estimated provided services between the different scenarios. However, scientific articles have covered a limited amount of estimated ecosystem services and have used tools to aggregate services that contain a significant amount of subjective aspects and that represent the final result in a non-tangible unit such as 'points'. To resolve these matters, this study quantifies the environmental impact (on human health, natural systems and natural resources) in physical units and uses an ecosystem service valuation based on monetary values (including ecosystem disservices with associated negative monetary values). More specifically, the paper also focuses on the assessment of ecosystem services related to pollutant removal/generation flows, accounting for the inflow of eutrophying nitrogen (N) when assessing the effect of N leached to groundwater. Regarding water use/provisioning, evapotranspiration is alternatively considered a disservice because it implies a loss of (potential) groundwater. These approaches and improvements, relevant to all ecosystems, are demonstrated using a Scots pine stand from 2010 to 2089 for a combination of three environmental change and three management scenarios. The environmental change scenarios considered interannual climate variability trends and included alterations in temperature, precipitation, nitrogen deposition, wind speed, Particulate matter (PM) concentration and CO2 concentration. The addressed flows/ecosystem services, including disservices, are as follows: particulate matter removal, freshwater loss, CO2 sequestration, wood production, NOx emissions, NH3 uptake and nitrogen pollution/removal. The monetary

  9. Public comments on the draft generic environmental impact statement for management of commercially generated radioactive waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kreiter, M.R.; Unruh, C.M.; McCallum, R.F.

    1980-01-01

    The US Department of Energy has the responsibility for developing the technology required for managing commercial radioactive wastes in an environmentally acceptable manner. As part of this responsibility, DOE has prepared a draft environmental impact statement on the management of commercially generated radioactive waste. The draft was issued for public comment in April of 1979; five public hearings were held. The draft GEIS is intended to provide environmental input for the selection of an appropriate program strategy for the permanent isolation of commercially generated high-level and transuranic wastes. The scope of such a strategy includes research and development into alternative treatment processes and emplacement media, site investigations into candidate media, and the examination of advanced waste management technologies. The draft statement describes the commercial radioactive wastes that would have to be managed for very long periods of time from an assumed nuclear generation scenario of 10,000 GWe-yr of power over a 65-year period ending in 2040

  10. Framing scenarios of electricity generation and gas use: EPRI report series on gas demands for power generation. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thumb, S.; Glover, W.; Hughes, W.R.

    1996-07-01

    Results of three EPRI projects have been combined to analyze power industry consumption of gas and other generating fuels. The report's capstone is a scenario analysis of power industry generation and fuel consumption. The Utility Fuel Consumption Model (UFCM), developed for the project, predicts generating capacity and generation by region and fuel through 2015, based on load duration curves, generation dispatch, and expected capacity additions. Scenarios embody uncertain factors, such as electricity demand growth, fuel switching, coal-gas competition, the merit order of gas-coal dispatch, and retirement of nuclear units, that substantially affect gas consumption. Some factors, especially electricity demand have very large effects. The report includes a consistent database on NUG (non-utility generation) capacity and generation and assesses historical and prospective trends in NUG generation. The report shows that NUG capacity growth will soon decline substantially. The study assesses industry capability for price-induced fuel switching from gas to oil and coal, documenting conversions of coal units to dual coal-gas capability and determining that gas-to-oil switching remains a strong influence on fuel availability and gas prices, though regulation and taxation have increased trigger prices for switching. 61 tabs

  11. Vulnerability of US thermoelectric power generation to climate change when incorporating state-level environmental regulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Lu; Hejazi, Mohamad; Li, Hongyi; Forman, Barton; Zhang, Xiao

    2017-07-10

    This study explores the interactions between climate and thermoelectric generation in the U.S. by coupling an Earth System Model with a thermoelectric power generation model. We validated model simulations of power production for selected power plants (~44% of existing thermoelectric capacity) against reported values. In addition, we projected future usable capacity for existing power plants under two different climate change scenarios. Results indicate that climate change alone may reduce average thermoelectric generating capacity by 2%-3% by the 2060s. Reductions up to 12% are expected if environmental requirements are enforced without waivers for thermal variation. This study concludes that the impact of climate change on the U.S. thermoelectric power system is less than previous estimates due to an inclusion of a spatially-disaggregated representation of environmental regulations and provisional variances that temporarily relieve power plants from permit requirements. This work highlights the significance of accounting for legal constructs in which the operation of power plants are managed, and underscores the effects of provisional variances in addition to environmental requirements.

  12. Generation of large-scale PV scenarios using aggregated power curves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nuño Martinez, Edgar; Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio

    2017-01-01

    The contribution of solar photovoltaic (PV) power to the generation is becoming more relevant in modern power system. Therefore, there is a need to model the variability large-scale PV generation accurately. This paper presents a novel methodology to generate regional PV scenarios based...... on aggregated power curves rather than traditional physical PV conversion models. Our approach is based on hourly mesoscale reanalysis irradiation data and power measurements and do not require additional variables such as ambient temperature or wind speed. It was used to simulate the PV generation...... on the German system between 2012 and 2015 showing high levels of correlation with actual measurements (93.02–97.60%) and small deviations from the expected capacity factors (0.02–1.80%). Therefore, we are confident about the ability of the proposed model to accurately generate realistic large-scale PV...

  13. Challenges of electricity production scenarios modelling for life cycle assessment of environmental impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blanc, Isabelle; Beloin-Saint-Pierre, Didier

    2013-01-01

    This communication presents a first attempt at making a life cycle assessment of prospective electricity production scenarios which were designed in the EnerGEO project. We start by a basic review of system (in this case, scenario) modelling expectations in today's LCA study. We then review some of the challenges of implementation due to the lack of detailed description of present and future electricity production systems. The importance of a detailed description is then shown with an evaluation of uncertainty of life cycle impact assessment results for three scenarios of German electricity production in 2030. The significant uncertainties we found, prevent us from detecting a relevant trend or making any comparison between the three chosen scenarios. We finally come to the conclusion that the LCA methodology will become relevant for the environmental assessment of electricity production scenarios when many more detailed information are accounted to describe future technologies, structures and sources of energy. (orig.)

  14. Challenges of electricity production scenarios modelling for life cycle assessment of environmental impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blanc, Isabelle; Beloin-Saint-Pierre, Didier [MINES ParisTech, Sophia Antipolis (France). Observation, Impacts, Energy Center

    2013-07-01

    This communication presents a first attempt at making a life cycle assessment of prospective electricity production scenarios which were designed in the EnerGEO project. We start by a basic review of system (in this case, scenario) modelling expectations in today's LCA study. We then review some of the challenges of implementation due to the lack of detailed description of present and future electricity production systems. The importance of a detailed description is then shown with an evaluation of uncertainty of life cycle impact assessment results for three scenarios of German electricity production in 2030. The significant uncertainties we found, prevent us from detecting a relevant trend or making any comparison between the three chosen scenarios. We finally come to the conclusion that the LCA methodology will become relevant for the environmental assessment of electricity production scenarios when many more detailed information are accounted to describe future technologies, structures and sources of energy. (orig.)

  15. An inquiry into the potential of scenario analysis for dealing with uncertainty in strategic environmental assessment in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu Zhixi; Bai, Hongtao; Xu He; Zhu Tan

    2011-01-01

    Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) inherently needs to address greater levels of uncertainty in the formulation and implementation processes of strategic decisions, compared with project environmental impact assessment. The range of uncertainties includes internal and external factors of the complex system that is concerned in the strategy. Scenario analysis is increasingly being used to cope with uncertainty in SEA. Following a brief introduction of scenarios and scenario analysis, this paper examines the rationale for scenario analysis in SEA in the context of China. The state of the art associated with scenario analysis applied to SEA in China was reviewed through four SEA case analyses. Lessons learned from these cases indicated the word 'scenario' appears to be abused and the scenario-based methods appear to be misused due to the lack of understanding of an uncertain future and scenario analysis. However, good experiences were also drawn on, regarding how to integrate scenario analysis into the SEA process in China, how to cope with driving forces including uncertainties, how to combine qualitative scenario storylines with quantitative impact predictions, and how to conduct assessments and propose recommendations based on scenarios. Additionally, the ways to improve the application of this tool in SEA were suggested. We concluded by calling for further methodological research on this issue and more practices.

  16. Downscaling drivers of global environmental change: Enabling use of global SRES scenarios at the national and grid levels

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Vuuren, D.P.; Lucas, P.L.; Hilderink, H.

    2007-01-01

    Global environmental change scenarios typically distinguish between about 10–20 global regions. However, various studies need scenario information at a higher level of spatial detail. This paper presents a set of algorithms that aim to fill this gap by providing downscaled scenario data for

  17. Economic and environmental assessment of cellulosic ethanol production scenarios annexed to a typical sugar mill.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali Mandegari, Mohsen; Farzad, Somayeh; Görgens, Johann F

    2017-01-01

    In this work different biorefinery scenarios were investigated, concerning the co-production of bioethanol and electricity from available lignocellulose at a typical sugar mill, as possible extensions to the current combustion of bagasse for steam and electricity production and burning trash on-filed. In scenario 1, the whole bagasse and brown leaves is utilized in a biorefinery and coal is burnt in the existing inefficient sugar mill boiler. Scenario 2 & 3 are assumed with a new centralized CHP unit without/with coal co-combustion, respectively. Also, through scenarios 4 & 5, the effect of water insoluble loading were studied. All scenarios provided energy for the sugarmill and the ethanol plant, with the export of surplus electricity. Economic analysis determined that scenario 1 was the most viable scenario due to less capital cost and economies-of scale. Based on Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) results, scenario 2 outperformed the other scenarios, while three scenarios showed lower contribution to environmental burdens than the current situation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Influence of the environmental safety indicator on the structure of power generation capacity in Belarus

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cherp, A. [Central European University, Budapest (Hungary); Mikhalevich, A.; Nikitsin, S.; Tkachou, V [Institute of Power Engineering, National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, Minsk (Belarus)

    2013-07-01

    The largest amount of greenhouse gas emissions in the world (60%) come from the energy sector. Greenhouse gas emissions during the electricity and heat production strongly depend on the fuel mix and combustion technologies, tariff and tax policy, etc. The environmental factor at present is considered as one of the energy security indicators. Specific greenhouse gas emission per unit of heat and electricity produced was chosen as such indicator. The MESSAGE model was used for the Belantsian energy system for analysis of the scenarios by considering possible diversification by type of energy resources and by suppliers. For the considered scenarios specific emissions of CO{sub 2} per unit of heat and electricity produced had been calculated. The tax on fossil fuels burning was taken as an influencing factor on the environmental indicator. Established results show its impact on optimal structure of the generating capacity and greenhouse gas emissions in the energy sector. (author)

  19. Economic and Environmental Considerations for Zero-emission Transport and Thermal Energy Generation on an Energy Autonomous Island

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fontina Petrakopoulou

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The high cost and environmental impact of fossil-fuel energy generation in remote regions can make renewable energy applications more competitive than business-as-usual scenarios. Furthermore, energy and transport are two of the main sectors that significantly contribute to global greenhouse gas emissions. This paper focuses on the generation of thermal energy and the transport sector of a fossil fuel-based energy independent island in Greece. We evaluate (1 technologies for fully renewable thermal energy generation using building-specific solar thermal systems and (2 the replacement of the vehicle fleet of the island with electric and hydrogen-fueled vehicles. The analysis, based on economic and environmental criteria, shows that although solar thermal decreases greenhouse gases by 83%, when compared to the current diesel-based situation, it only becomes economically attractive with subsidy scenarios equal to or higher than 50%. However, in the transport sector, the sum of fuel and maintenance costs of fuel-cell and electric vehicles is found to be 45% lower than that of the current fleet, due to their approximately seven times lower fuel cost. Lastly, it will take approximately six years of use of the new vehicles to balance out the emissions of their manufacturing phase.

  20. Environmental sensitivity studies for Gen-IV roadmap DUPIC scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, Chang Joon

    2004-03-01

    The environmental effect of the DUPIC (Direct Use of Spent PWR Fuel in CANDU Reactors) fuel cycle, which is considered as one of the partial recycle scenario in Gen-IV roadmap, has been analyzed by using the dynamic analysis method. Through the parametric calculations for the DUPIC fuel cycle deployment time and the fraction of the DUPIC reactors, the environmental effects of the fuel cycle for important parameters such as the amount of spent fuel and the combined amounts of plutonium and minor actinides were estimated and compared to those of the once-through LWR fuel cycle. The results of the sensitivity calculations showed that an early deployment of the DUPIC fuel cycle with a high DUPIC reactor fraction can reduce the accumulation of spent fuel by up to 40%. More important is the associated reduction in the combined amount of plutonium and minor actinides, which may reduce the key repository parameter (long term decay heat). Therefore it is expected that favorable environmental effects will be the outcome of the implementation of the DUPIC fuel cycle

  1. Multi-criteria ranking of energy generation scenarios with Monte Carlo simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baležentis, Tomas; Streimikiene, Dalia

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Two advanced optimization models were applied for EU energy policy scenarios development. • Several advanced MCDA were applied for energy policy scenarios ranking: WASPAS, ARAS, TOPSIS. • A Monte Carlo simulation was applied for sensitivity analysis of scenarios ranking. • New policy insights in terms of energy scenarios forecasting were provided based on research conducted. - Abstract: Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are omnipresent in energy policy analysis. Even though IAMs can successfully handle uncertainty pertinent to energy planning problems, they render multiple variables as outputs of the modelling. Therefore, policy makers are faced with multiple energy development scenarios and goals. Specifically, technical, environmental, and economic aspects are represented by multiple criteria, which, in turn, are related to conflicting objectives. Preferences of decision makers need to be taken into account in order to facilitate effective energy planning. Multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) tools are relevant in aggregating diverse information and thus comparing alternative energy planning options. The paper aims at ranking European Union (EU) energy development scenarios based on several IAMs with respect to multiple criteria. By doing so, we account for uncertainty surrounding policy priorities outside the IAM. In order to follow a sustainable approach, the ranking of policy options is based on EU energy policy priorities: energy efficiency improvements, increased use of renewables, reduction in and low mitigations costs of GHG emission. The ranking of scenarios is based on the estimates rendered by the two advanced IAMs relying on different approaches, namely TIAM and WITCH. The data are fed into the three MCDM techniques: the method of weighted aggregated sum/product assessment (WASPAS), the Additive Ratio Assessment (ARAS) method, and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS). As MCDM techniques allow

  2. Environmental impact of power generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hester, R.E.; Harrison, R.M.

    1999-01-01

    A series of articles offers answers to questions on the environmental consequences and impact on man of the power generation industry. Subjects discussed in detail include: (i) acid rain and climate change and how the generators of electricity have been expected to play a role disproportionate to their deleterious contributions in improving the situation; (ii) recently adopted air quality management approaches with regard to airborne emissions from power stations and motor vehicles; (iii) the evolution of the UK power industry towards sustainability through considerations for the environment and use of resources in a liberalised market; (iv) the Best Practicable Environmental Option approach to the design and siting of power stations; (v) the environmental impact of nuclear power generation and (vi) electromagnetic fields and the possible effects on man of transmitting electricity in overhead power lines

  3. Environmental and climate security: improving scenario methodologies for science and risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briggs, C. M.; Carlsen, H.

    2010-12-01

    Governments and popular discussions have increasingly referred to concepts of ‘climate security’, often with reference to IPCC data. Development of effective methodologies to translate complex, scientific data into risk assessments has lagged, resulting in overly simplistic political assumptions of potential impacts. Climate security scenarios have been developed for use by security and military agencies, but effective engagement by scientific communities requires an improved framework. Effective use of data requires improvement both of climate projections, and the mapping of cascading impacts across interlinked, complex systems. In this research we propose a process for systematic generation of subsets of scenarios (of arbitrary size) from a given set of variables with possible interlinkages. The variables could include climatic changes as well as other global changes of concerns in a security context. In coping with possible challenges associated with the nexus of climate change and security - where deep structural uncertainty and possible irreversible changes are of primary interest - it is important to explore the outer limits of the relevant uncertainties. Therefore the proposed process includes a novel method that will help scenario developers in generating scenario sets where the scenarios are in a quantifiable sense maximally different and therefore best ‘span’ the whole set of scenarios. When downscaled onto a regional level, this process can provide guidance to potentially significant and abrupt geophysical changes, where high uncertainty has often prevented communication of risks. Potential physical changes can then be used as starting points for mapping cascading effects across networks, including topological analysis to identify critically vulnerable nodes and fragile systems, the existence of positive or negative feedback loops, and possible intervention points. Advanced knowledge of both potential geo-physical shifts and related non

  4. Space-time scenarios of wind power generation produced using a Gaussian copula with parametrized precision matrix

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tastu, J.; Pinson, P.; Madsen, Henrik

    2013-09-01

    The emphasis in this work is placed on generating space-time trajectories (also referred to as scenarios) of wind power generation. This calls for prediction of multivariate densities describing wind power generation at a number of distributed locations and for a number of successive lead times. A modelling approach taking advantage of sparsity of precision matrices is introduced for the description of the underlying space-time dependence structure. The proposed parametrization of the dependence structure accounts for such important process characteristics as non-constant conditional precisions and direction-dependent cross-correlations. Accounting for the space-time effects is shown to be crucial for generating high quality scenarios. (Author)

  5. Radioactive waste assessment using 'moderate growth in nuclear electricity generation' scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richardson, J.A.; Goodill, D.R.; Tymons, B.J.

    1985-05-01

    This report describes an assessment of radioactive waste management arisings from a defined nuclear power generation scenario -Scheme 3. Scheme 3 assumes a moderate growth in nuclear generation scenario with raw waste arisings from 3 main groups: (i) existing and committed commercial reactors; (ii) fuel reprocessing plants; (iii) research, industry and medicine. No decommissioning wastes are considered except for arisings from the final fuel cores from decommissioned reactors. The study uses the SIMULATION2 code which models waste material flows through the system. With a knowledge of the accumulations and average production rates of the raw wastes and their isotopic compositions (or total activities), the rates at which conditioned wastes become available for transportation and disposal are calculated, with specific activity levels. The data bases for the inventory calculations and the assumptions concerning future operation of nuclear facilities were those current in 1983. Both the inventory data and plans for the future of existing nuclear installations have been updated since these calculations were completed. Therefore the results from this assessment do not represent the most up-to-date information available. The report does, however, illustrate the methodology of assessment, and indicates the type of information that can be generated. (author)

  6. The future of nuclear power in China: Long-term scenarios - 5129

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paltsev, S.; Zhang, D.

    2015-01-01

    Nuclear power will play an important role in reaching China government's 2020 goal of raising the proportion of energy produced by non-fossil fuel to 15 percent and stabilizing carbon emissions by 2030. It will also contribute to lower air pollution emissions. In the medium scenario, nuclear power development is constrained by the available sites verified in preliminary explorations. The installed nuclear power capacity reaches 160 GW by 2050. Nuclear generation grows ten times relative to the current capacity, but a share of nuclear power is still only 10% of total electricity generation in China by 2050. In the high scenario, the installed nuclear power capacity reaches 400 GW by 2050, which provides about 30% of electricity by 2050. In the low scenario of no licensing for new sites, the installed nuclear power capacity reaches 95 GW by 2050. For environmental impacts, in 2050 high scenario leads to about 20% reduction in total China's CO 2 emissions and about 25% reduction in a major air pollutant SO 2 relative to medium scenario. Availability of relatively cheap natural gas for electricity mostly replaces coal-based generation while keeping similar profiles for nuclear generation as in the high cost natural gas scenarios. (authors)

  7. ENVIRONMENTAL SCENARIOS FOR MANDATORY BIO-FUEL BLENDING TARGETS: AN APPLICATION OF INTUITIVE LOGICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Antonio Conejero

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Scenarios depicting targets concerning mandatory bio-fuel blending are critical to the strategic planning of food and bio-energy production chains and their design is the purpose of this paper. Each scenario tells a story about how various elements might interact under given conditions. The method herein utilized is primarily based on Schoemaker´s (1995 and Schwartz´s (1991 earlier proposals. A six step framework is followed: i identify the focal issue; ii summarize current mandatory blending targets; iii identify the driving forces as of a macro-environmental analysis; iv validate driving forces with specialists; v rank such key forces by importance before uncertainties, building a correlation matrix; vi design the scenarios. Finally, three alternative scenarios, relative to the adoption on behalf of countries, by the year 2020, of mandatory bio-fuel blending targets, are proposed which might guide these countries’ decision makers when planning production systems.

  8. Global sensitivity analysis of the BSM2 dynamic influent disturbance scenario generator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flores-Alsina, Xavier; Gernaey, Krist V.; Jeppsson, Ulf

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents the results of a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of a phenomenological model that generates dynamic wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) influent disturbance scenarios. This influent model is part of the Benchmark Simulation Model (BSM) family and creates realistic dry/wet weat...

  9. Emissions implications of downscaled electricity generation scenarios for the western United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nsanzineza, Rene; O’Connell, Matthew; Brinkman, Gregory; Milford, Jana B.

    2017-10-01

    This study explores how emissions from electricity generation in the Western Interconnection region of the U.S. might respond in circa 2030 to contrasting scenarios for fuel prices and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions fees. We examine spatial and temporal variations in generation mix across the region and year using the PLEXOS unit commitment and dispatch model with a production cost model database adapted from the Western Electricity Coordinating Council. Emissions estimates are computed by combining the dispatch model results with unit-specific, emissions-load relationships. Wind energy displaces natural gas and coal in scenarios with relatively expensive natural gas or with GHG fees. Correspondingly, annual emissions of NOx, SO2, and CO2 are reduced by 20-40% in these cases. NOx emissions, which are a concern as a precursor of ground-level ozone, are relatively high and consistent across scenarios during summer, when peak electricity loads occur and wind resources in the region are comparatively weak. Accounting for the difference in start-up versus stabilized NOx emissions rates for natural gas plants had little impact on region-wide emissions estimates due to the dominant contribution from coal-fired plants, but would be more important in the vicinity of the natural gas units.

  10. Fiscal 2000 survey on electrical power supply system for the purpose of reducing greenhouse effect gas. Three scenarios for spread of distributed power generation by 2010; 2000 nendo onshitsu koka gas sakugen no tame no denryoku kyokyu system ni kansuru chosa hokokusho. 2010 nen made no bunsangata dengen fukyu ni kansuru mittsu no scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2001-03-01

    An examination was conducted concerning the course of spread of distributed power generation (on-site power generation of 2,000 kW or less) by the year 2010, with three scenarios prepared. In the scenario 1, the government will completely deregulates the power market and take no other steps, leaving the matter to market competition. The universal service will be abandoned, which means higher power prices for remote regions, contributing to the spread of home power generation. In the scenario 2, the government, having reached the limits of the nuclear propulsion policy, will adopt natural gas as the center of its electrical power policy, providing preferential treatments such as subsidies and tax exemptions and requesting the power companies to increase their usage. This will lead to higher transmission charges, with distributed power generation more advantageous to the IPPs in terms of cost. In the scenario 3, environmental awareness will make increase in the capacity quite difficult including power generation facilities and transmission/distribution network, and will invite a power crisis in the long run through insufficient capacity in power generation and transmission/distribution volume. Distributed power generation requiring no reinforcement to the grid will spread such as household-use type without system interconnection, solar cells or small fuel cells. (NEDO)

  11. Key factors affecting the deployment of electricity generation technologies in energy technology scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruoss, F.; Turton, H.; Hirschberg, S.

    2009-12-01

    This report presents the findings of a survey of key factors affecting the deployment of electricity generation technologies in selected energy scenarios. The assumptions and results of scenarios, and the different models used in their construction, are compared. Particular attention is given to technology assumptions, such as investment cost or capacity factors, and their impact on technology deployment. We conclude that the deployment of available technologies, i.e. their market shares, can only be explained from a holistic perspective, and that there are strong interactions between driving forces and competing technology options within a certain scenario. Already the design of a scenario analysis has important impacts on the deployment of technologies: the choice of the set of available technologies, the modeling approach and the definition of the storylines determine the outcome. Furthermore, the quantification of these storylines into input parameters and cost assumptions drives technology deployment, even though differences across the scenarios in cost assumptions are not observed to account for many of the observed differences in electricity technology deployment. The deployment can only be understood after a consideration of the interplay of technology options and the scale of technology deployment, which is determined by economic growth, end-use efficiency, and electrification. Some input parameters are of particular importance for certain technologies: CO 2 prices, fuel prices and the availability of carbon capture and storage appear to be crucial for the deployment of fossil-fueled power plants; maximum construction rates and safety concerns determine the market share of nuclear power; the availability of suitable sites represents the most important factor for electricity generation from hydro and wind power plants; and technology breakthroughs are needed for solar photovoltaics to become cost-competitive. Finally, this analysis concludes with a review

  12. Key factors affecting the deployment of electricity generation technologies in energy technology scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruoss, F.; Turton, H.; Hirschberg, S.

    2009-12-15

    This report presents the findings of a survey of key factors affecting the deployment of electricity generation technologies in selected energy scenarios. The assumptions and results of scenarios, and the different models used in their construction, are compared. Particular attention is given to technology assumptions, such as investment cost or capacity factors, and their impact on technology deployment. We conclude that the deployment of available technologies, i.e. their market shares, can only be explained from a holistic perspective, and that there are strong interactions between driving forces and competing technology options within a certain scenario. Already the design of a scenario analysis has important impacts on the deployment of technologies: the choice of the set of available technologies, the modeling approach and the definition of the storylines determine the outcome. Furthermore, the quantification of these storylines into input parameters and cost assumptions drives technology deployment, even though differences across the scenarios in cost assumptions are not observed to account for many of the observed differences in electricity technology deployment. The deployment can only be understood after a consideration of the interplay of technology options and the scale of technology deployment, which is determined by economic growth, end-use efficiency, and electrification. Some input parameters are of particular importance for certain technologies: CO{sub 2} prices, fuel prices and the availability of carbon capture and storage appear to be crucial for the deployment of fossil-fueled power plants; maximum construction rates and safety concerns determine the market share of nuclear power; the availability of suitable sites represents the most important factor for electricity generation from hydro and wind power plants; and technology breakthroughs are needed for solar photovoltaics to become cost-competitive. Finally, this analysis concludes with a

  13. Long-term land use future scenarios for the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-08-01

    In order to facilitate decision regarding environmental restoration activities at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL), the United States Department of Energy, Idaho Operations Office (DOE-ID) conducted analyses to project reasonable future land use scenarios at the INEL for the next 100 years. The methodology for generating these scenarios included: review of existing DOE plans, policy statements, and mission statements pertaining to the INEL; review of surrounding land use characteristics and county developments policies; solicitation of input from local, county, state and federal planners, policy specialists, environmental professionals, and elected officials; and review of environmental and development constraints at the INEL site that could influence future land use

  14. Baseline scenarios of global environmental change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alcamo, J.; Kreileman, G.J.J.; Bollen, J.C.; Born, G.J. van den; Krol, M.S.; Toet, A.M.C.; Vries, H.J.M. de; Gerlagh, R.

    1996-01-01

    This paper presents three baseline scenarios of no policy action computed by the IMAGE2 model. These scenarios cover a wide range of coupled global change indicators, including: energy demand and consumption; food demand, consumption, and production; changes in land cover including changes in extent of agricultural land and forest; emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precursors; and climate change and its impacts on sea level rise, crop productivity and natural vegetation. Scenario information is available for the entire world with regional and grid scale detail, and covers from 1970 to 2100. (author)

  15. Uncertainties in Amazon Hydropower Development: Risk Scenarios and Environmental Issues around the Belo Monte Dam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wilson Cabral de Sousa Júnior

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The Amazon region is the final frontier and central focus of Brazilian hydro development, which raises a range of environmental concerns. The largest project in the Amazon is the planned Belo Monte Complex on the Xingu river. If constructed it will be the second biggest hydroelectric plant in Brazil, third largest on earth. In this study, we analyse the private and social costs, and benefits of the Belo Monte project. Furthermore, we present risk scenarios, considering fluctuations in the project’s feasibility that would result from variations in total costs and power. For our analysis, we create three scenarios. In the first scenario Belo Monte appears feasible, with a net present value (NPV in the range of US$670 million and a rate of return in excess of the 12% discount rate used in this analysis. The second scenario, where we varied some of the project costs and assumptions based on other economic estimates, shows the project to be infeasible, with a negative NPV of about US$3 billion and external costs around US$330 million. We also conducted a risk analysis, allowing variation in several of the parameters most important to the project’s feasibility. The simulations brought together the risks of cost overruns, construction delays, lower-than-expected generation and rising social costs. The probability of a positive NPV in these circumstances was calculated to be just 28%, or there is a 72% chance that the costs of the Belo Monte dam will be greater than the benefits. Several WCD recommendations are not considered in the project, especially those related to transparency, social participation in the discussion, economic analysis and risk assessment, and licensing of the project. This study underscores the importance of forming a participatory consensus, based on clear, objective information, on whether or not to build the Belo Monte dam.

  16. Classifying Scenarios in a Product Design Process: a study to achieve automated scenario generation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anggreeni, Irene; van der Voort, Mascha C.; van Houten, F.J.A.M.; Miedema, J.; Lutters, D.

    2008-01-01

    This paper explains the possible uses of scenarios in product design. A scenario classification is proposed as a framework to create, use and reuse different types of scenarios in a product design process. Our aims are three-fold: (1) to obtain a better view on the extent to which scenarios can be

  17. Using MFM methodology to generate and define major accident scenarios for quantitative risk assessment studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hua, Xinsheng; Wu, Zongzhi; Lind, Morten

    2017-01-01

    to calculate likelihood of each MAS. Combining the likelihood of each scenario with a qualitative risk matrix, each major accident scenario is thereby ranked for consideration for detailed consequence analysis. The methodology is successfully highlighted using part of BMA-process for production of hydrogen......Generating and defining Major Accident Scenarios (MAS) are commonly agreed as the key step for quantitative risk assessment (QRA). The aim of the study is to explore the feasibility of using Multilevel Flow Modeling (MFM) methodology to formulating MAS. Traditionally this is usually done based...

  18. Space-time scenarios of wind power generation produced using a Gaussian copula with parametrized precision matrix

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tastu, Julija; Pinson, Pierre; Madsen, Henrik

    The emphasis in this work is placed on generating space-time trajectories (also referred to as scenarios) of wind power generation. This calls for prediction of multivariate densities describing wind power generation at a number of distributed locations and for a number of successive lead times. ...

  19. Reflection on Migration Scenarios 2G and 3G Mobile Networks to Fourth Generation in Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergio A. Sepúlveda-Leiva

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available In the development of the following article is an analysis of some of the migration scenarios third generation mobile technologies for fourth generation mobile technologies, in order to select which is the most suitable migration scenario for mobile operators Colombia, taking into account the characteristics of the market and the needs that are more optimally suited for the needs of mobile operators in the country, the whole development of the article is based on operators with own infrastructure is not analyzed migration characteristics of mobile virtual network operators.

  20. Municipal Solid Waste to Energy Generation in Bangladesh: Possible Scenarios to Generate Renewable Electricity in Dhaka and Chittagong City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. M. Nazmul Islam

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Increased generation of methane (CH4 from municipal solid wastes (MSW alarms the world to take proper initiative for the sustainable management of MSW, because it is 34 times stronger than carbon dioxide (CO2. Mounting land scarcity issue around the world brands the waste to energy (WtE strategy for MSW management in urban areas as a promising option, because WtE not only reduces the land pressure problem, but also generates electricity, heat, and green jobs. The goal of this study is to evaluate the renewable electricity generation potential and associated carbon reduction of MSW management in Bangladesh using WtE strategies. The study is conducted in two major cities of Bangladesh: Dhaka and Chittagong. Six different WtE scenarios are evaluated consisting of mixed MSW incineration and landfill gas (LFG recovery system. Energy potential of different WtE strategy is assessed using standard energy conversion model and subsequent GHGs emissions models. Scenario A1 results in highest economic and energy potential and net negative GHGs emission. Sensitivity analysis by varying MSW moisture content reveals higher energy potential and less GHGs emissions from MSW possessing low moisture content. The study proposes mixed MSW incineration that could be a potential WtE strategy for renewable electricity generation in Bangladesh.

  1. Future generations, environmental ethics, and global environmental change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tonn, B.E.

    1994-12-31

    The elements of a methodology to be employed by the global community to investigate the consequences of global environmental change upon future generations and global ecosystems are outlined in this paper. The methodology is comprised of two major components: A possible future worlds model; and a formal, citizen-oriented process to judge whether the possible future worlds potentially inheritable by future generations meet obligational standards. A broad array of descriptors of future worlds can be encompassed within this framework, including survival of ecosystems and other species and satisfaction of human concerns. The methodology expresses fundamental psychological motivations and human myths journey, renewal, mother earth, and being-in-nature-and incorporates several viewpoints on obligations to future generations-maintaining options, fairness, humility, and the cause of humanity. The methodology overcomes several severe drawbacks of the economic-based methods most commonly used for global environmental policy analysis.

  2. Ontario demand response scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowlands, I.H.

    2005-09-01

    Strategies for demand management in Ontario were examined via 2 scenarios for a commercial/institutional building with a normal summertime peak load of 300 kW between 14:00 and 18:00 during a period of high electricity demand and high electricity prices. The first scenario involved the deployment of a 150 kW on-site generator fuelled by either diesel or natural gas. The second scenario involved curtailing load by 60 kW during the same periods. Costs and benefits of both scenarios were evaluated for 3 groups: consumers, system operators and society. Benefits included electricity cost savings, deferred transmission capacity development, lower system prices for electricity, as well as environmental changes, economic development, and a greater sense of corporate social responsibility. It was noted that while significant benefits were observed for all 3 groups, they were not substantial enough to encourage action, as the savings arising from deferred generation capacity development do not accrue to individual players. The largest potential benefit was identified as lower prices, spread across all users of electricity in Ontario. It was recommended that representative bodies cooperate so that the system-wide benefits can be reaped. It was noted that if 10 municipal utilities were able to have 250 commercial or institutional customers engaged in distributed response, then a total peak demand reduction of 375 MW could be achieved, representing more than 25 per cent of Ontario's target for energy conservation. It was concluded that demand response often involves the investment of capital and new on-site procedures, which may affect reactions to various incentives. 78 refs., 10 tabs., 5 figs

  3. The EnerGEO Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA). Environmental assessment of scenarios as a web service

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blanc, Isabelle; Gschwind, Benoit; Lefevre, Mireille

    2013-01-01

    With the International Energy Agency estimating that global energy demand will increase between 40 and 50 percent by 2030 (compared to 2003), scientists and policymakers are concerned about the sustainability of the current energy system and what environmental pressures might result from the development of future energy systems. EnerGEO is an ongoing FP7 Project (2009-2013) which assesses the current and future impact of energy use on the environment by linking environmental observation systems with the processes involved in exploiting energy resources. The idea of this European project is to determine how low carbon scenarios, and in particular scenarios with a high share of renewable electricity, affect emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases (GHG) and contribute to mitigation of negative energy system impacts on human health and ecosystems. A Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA) has been elaborated to provide impact results for a selection of scenarios via a set of models (large-scale energy models, Life Cycle Assessment models,..). This PIA is currently available through a web service. The concept of the PIA is detailed and to illustrate its interest, a set of results is given with the use of the simulation mode of the European version of GAINS for a selection of scenarios. (orig.)

  4. Simulating the Impact of Economic and Environmental Strategies on Future Urban Growth Scenarios in Ningbo, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Liu

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Coastal cities in China are challenged by multiple growth paths and strategies related to demands in the housing market, economic growth and eco-system protection. This paper examines the effects of conflicting strategies between economic growth and environmental protection on future urban scenarios in Ningbo, China, through logistic-regression-based cellular automata (termed LogCA modeling. The LogCA model is calibrated based on the observed urban patterns in 1990 and 2015, and applied to simulate four future scenarios in 2040, including (a the Norm-scenario, a baseline scenario that maintains the 1990–2015 growth rate; (b the GDP-scenario, a GDP-oriented growth scenario emphasizing the development in city centers and along economic corridors; (c the Slow-scenario, a slow-growth scenario considering the potential downward trend of the housing market in China; and (d the Eco-scenario, a slow-growth scenario emphasizing natural conservation and ecosystem protections. The CA parameters of the Norm- and Slow-scenarios are the same as the calibrated parameters, while the parameters of proximities to economic corridors and natural scenery sites were increased by a factor of 3 for the GDP- and Eco-scenarios, respectively. The Norm- and GDP-scenarios predicted 1950 km2 of new growth for the next 25 years, the Slow-scenario predicted 650 km2, and the Eco-scenario predicted less growth than the Slow-scenario. The locations where the newly built-up area will emerge are significantly different under the four scenarios and the Slow- and Eco-scenarios are preferable to achieve long-term sustainability. The scenarios are not only helpful for exploring sustainable urban development options in China, but also serve as a reference for adjusting the urban planning and land policies.

  5. Scenario analysis to account for photovoltaic generation uncertainty in distribution grid reconfiguration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chittur Ramaswamy, Parvathy; Deconinck, Geert; Pillai, Jayakrishnan Radhakrishna

    2013-01-01

    This paper considers hourly reconfiguration of a low voltage distribution network with the objectives of minimizing power loss and voltage deviation. The uncertainty in photovoltaic (PV) generation which in turn will affect the optimum configuration is tackled with the help of scenario analysis. ......-dominated solutions, demonstrating their trade-offs. Finally, the best compromise solution can be selected depending on the decision maker's requirement....

  6. Radioactive waste management and disposal scenario for fusion power reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tabara, Takashi; Yamano, Naoki [Sumitomo Atomic Energy Industries Ltd., Tokyo (Japan); Seki, Yasushi; Aoki, Isao

    1997-10-01

    The environmental and economic impact of radioactive waste (radwaste) generated from fusion power reactors using five types of structural materials and a light water reactor (LWR) have been evaluated and compared. At first, the amount and the radioactive level of the radwaste generated in five fusion reactors ware evaluated by an activation calculation code. Next, a possible radwaste disposal scenario applicable to fusion radwaste in Japan is considered and the disposal cost evaluated under certain assumptions. The exposure doses are evaluated for the skyshine of gamma-rays during the disposal operation, groundwater migration scenario during the institutional control period of 300 years and future site use scenario after the institutional period. The radwaste generated from a typical LWR was estimated based on a literature survey and the disposal cost was evaluated using the same assumptions as for the fusion reactors. It is found that the relative cost of disposal is strongly dependent on the cost for interim storage of medium level waste of fusion reactors and the cost of high level waste for the LWR. (author)

  7. Scenarios for economy and environment in Central and Eastern Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bollen, J.; Hettelingh, J.-P.; Maas, R.

    1993-01-01

    This draft report was produced within the framework of the Environmental Action Plant for Central and Eastern Europe on the request of the World Bank. A number of scenarios for this environment; Western Europe, Central Europe (the Czech and Slovak Republics, Hungary and Poland) and Eastern Europe (the former USSR) were developed. The environmental results related to scenarios applying future Western European techniques in future CEE (Environmental Action Plan for Central and Eastern Europe) investments were predicted - based on estimates of differences of energy efficiency and emission factors of techniques currently applied in CEE and Western Europe. The focus of the analysis is to reflect the effects on environmental quality in CEE assuming a gradual introduction of Western control technology. The results (in the form of maps, graphs and tables) of the analysis are given in detail, preceded by sections on socio-economic background and descriptions of scenarios and models. It is concluded that the main problem for Central and Eastern Europe will be to generate funds to restart economic growth after a difficult transition process. A more efficient use of energy should be encouraged and installations and industrial complexes should be retrofitted to help achieve this aim. Episodic peak concentrations of energy consumption should be reduced. (AB)

  8. Securing the future in the anthropocene: A critical analysis of the millennium ecosystem assessment scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert P. Marzec

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available This commentary analyzes the ontological character of the United Nations’ Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005 and its attempt to imagine business-as-usual and transformative human-environmental futures. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA constitutes the first and most significant attempt by an international political body to incorporate environmental concerns into the field of imaginative scenario building. In addition to its lengthy report on the threatened status of planetary ecosystems, the MA contains extensive “future scenarios” that imagine how human-environmental relations might unfold over the course of the twenty-first century. These scenarios arise out of the lineage of military scenarios generated during the Cold War, and continue to inform UN assessments in the present. This commentary explores how a politico-military concern for security informs the framework of the scenarios, and limits how the MA characterizes the fundamental human act of narration. In the process, the commentary explores alternative ontologies of narration and how these may lead to more transformative narratological interventions.

  9. Environmental and sanitary evaluation of electro-nuclear sites: methodological research and application to prospective scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-12-01

    In the framework of the radioactive wastes disposal of the law of 1991, an exchange forum constituted by ANDRA, CEA, COGEMA, EdF, Framatome-ANP and IRSN implemented an environmental and sanitary evaluation of the different methods of radioactive wastes management. This report presents the six studies scenarios, the proposed methodology, the application to the six scenarios and the analysis of the results which showed the efficiency of the different recycling options towards the electronuclear cycle impacts limitation, and a technical conclusion illustrated by improvement possibilities of the methodology. (A.L.B.)

  10. Logs Analysis of Adapted Pedagogical Scenarios Generated by a Simulation Serious Game Architecture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Callies, Sophie; Gravel, Mathieu; Beaudry, Eric; Basque, Josianne

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents an architecture designed for simulation serious games, which automatically generates game-based scenarios adapted to learner's learning progression. We present three central modules of the architecture: (1) the learner model, (2) the adaptation module and (3) the logs module. The learner model estimates the progression of the…

  11. Preliminary assessment of the health and environmental effects of coal utilization in the midwest. Volume I. Energy scenarios, technology characterizations, air and water resource impacts, and health effects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1977-01-01

    An initial evaluation of the major health and environmental issues associated with increased coal use in the six midwestern states of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin is presented. Using an integrated assessment approach, the evaluation proceeds from a base-line scenario of energy demand and facility siting for the period 1975 to 2020. Emphasis is placed on impacts from coal extraction, land reclamation, coal combustion for electrical generation, and coal gasification. The range of potential impacts and constraints is illustrated by a second scenario that represents an expected upper limit for coal utilization in Illinois. Included are: (1) a characterization of the energy demand and siting scenarios, coal related technologies, and coal resources, and (2) the related impacts on air quality, water availability, water quality, and human health.

  12. Polyethylene recycling: Waste policy scenario analysis for the EU-27.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreoni, Valeria; Saveyn, Hans G M; Eder, Peter

    2015-08-01

    This paper quantifies the main impacts that the adoption of the best recycling practices together with a reduction in the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the adoption of a kerbside collection system could have on the 27 Member States of the EU. The main consequences in terms of employment, waste management costs, emissions and energy use have been quantified for two scenarios of polyethylene (PE) waste production and recycling. That is to say, a "business as usual scenario", where the 2012 performances of PE waste production and recycling are extrapolated to 2020, is compared to a "best practice scenario", where the best available recycling practices are modelled together with the possible adoption of the amended Packaging and Packaging Waste Directive related to the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the implementation of a kerbside collection system. The main results show that socio-economic and environmental benefits can be generated across the EU by the implementation of the best practice scenario. In particular, estimations show a possible reduction of 4.4 million tonnes of non-recycled PE waste, together with a reduction of around €90 million in waste management costs in 2020 for the best practice scenario versus the business as usual scenario. An additional 35,622 jobs are also expected to be created. In environmental terms, the quantity of CO2 equivalent emissions could be reduced by around 1.46 million tonnes and the net energy requirements are expected to increase by 16.5 million GJ as a consequence of the reduction in the energy produced from waste. The main analysis provided in this paper, together with the data and the model presented, can be useful to identify the possible costs and benefits that the implementation of PE waste policies and Directives could generate for the EU. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Environmental evaluation of plastic waste management scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rigamonti, L.; Grosso, M.; Møller, Jacob

    2014-01-01

    The management of the plastic fraction is one of the most debated issues in the discussion on integrated municipal solid waste systems. Both material and energy recovery can be performed on such a waste stream, and different separate collection schemes can be implemented. The aim of the paper....... The study confirmed the difficulty to clearly identify an optimal strategy for plastic waste management. In fact none of the examined scenarios emerged univocally as the best option for all impact categories. When moving from the P0 treatment strategy to the other scenarios, substantial improvements can...... is to contribute to the debate, based on the analysis of different plastic waste recovery routes. Five scenarios were defined and modelled with a life cycle assessment approach using the EASEWASTE model. In the baseline scenario (P0) the plastic is treated as residual waste and routed partly to incineration...

  14. Techno-economic viability assessments of greener propulsion technology under potential environmental regulatory policy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nalianda, D.K.; Kyprianidis, K.G.; Sethi, V.; Singh, R.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • An advanced method is presented for techno-economic assessment under potential environmental regulatory policy scenarios. • The viability of the contra-rotating open rotor concept is investigated under various environmental policies. • CO_2 taxation is needed to drive the aerospace industry towards greener solutions. - Abstract: Sustainability of the aviation industry, as any other industry, depends on the elasticity of demand for the product and profitability through minimising operating costs. Of paramount importance is assessing and understanding the interdependency and effects of environmentally optimised solutions and emission mitigation policies. This paper describes the development and application of assessment methodologies to better understand the effects of environmental taxation/energy policies aimed at environmental pollution reduction and the future potential economic impact they may have on the adaptation of “greener” novel technologies. These studies are undertaken using a Techno-economic Environmental Risk Assessment approach. The methodology demonstrated allows the assessment of the economic viability of new technologies compared to conventional technologies, for various CO_2 emission taxation and fuel price scenarios. It considers relative increases in acquisition price and maintenance costs. A study undertaken as a ‘proof of concept’ compares a Counter Rotating Open Rotor aircraft with a conventional aircraft for short range operations. It indicates that at current fuel price and with no carbon taxation, a highly fuel efficient technology, such as the one considered, could be rendered economically unviable. The work goes on to demonstrate that in comparison to the conventional aircraft, any economic benefits that may be accrued from improvement in fuel consumption through such a technology, may well be negated through increases in acquisition price and maintenance costs. The work further demonstrates that if policy

  15. Scenario planning for the electricity generation in Indonesia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rachmatullah, C.; Aye, L.; Fuller, R.J.

    2007-01-01

    The long-term planning of a future electricity supply system requires data about future demand. Planners who use the conventional planning method forecast future demand by observing past trends or alternatively by developing scenarios and then selecting the scenarios considered to be the most likely to occur. This method, however, fails to include future uncertainties. To consider such uncertainties, the scenario planning method may be used. This study uses this method to devise a long-term electricity supply plan for the Java-Madura-Bali electricity system. It was found that the scenario planning method could save up to US$3.5 billion over a 15-year period of the method was applied right at the beginning of the period. In the case of the Java-Madura-Bali system, which currently has excess installed capacity, the scenario planning method does not provide such large benefits. It was also found that introducing integrated coal gasification combined cycle and advanced gas combined cycle units would reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the Java-Madura-Bali system by approximately 230 million tonnes or 15% compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario over a 15-year planning timeframe. The abatement cost was found to be US$4 per tonne of CO 2 . (author)

  16. Scenario planning for the electricity generation in Indonesia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rachmatullah, C.; Aye, L.; Fuller, R.J. [The University of Melbourne, Victoria (Australia). Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, International Technologies Centre

    2007-04-15

    The long-term planning of a future electricity supply system requires data about future demand. Planners who use the conventional planning method forecast future demand by observing past trends or alternatively by developing scenarios and then selecting the scenarios considered to be the most likely to occur. This method, however, fails to include future uncertainties. To consider such uncertainties, the scenario planning method may be used. This study uses this method to devise a long-term electricity supply plan for the Java-Madura-Bali electricity system. It was found that the scenario planning method could save up to US$3.5 billion over a 15-year period of the method was applied right at the beginning of the period. In the case of the Java-Madura-Bali system, which currently has excess installed capacity, the scenario planning method does not provide such large benefits. It was also found that introducing integrated coal gasification combined cycle and advanced gas combined cycle units would reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the Java-Madura-Bali system by approximately 230 million tonnes or 15% compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario over a 15-year planning timeframe. The abatement cost was found to be US$4 per tonne of CO{sub 2}. (author)

  17. Assessing the impacts of the changes in farming systems on food security and environmental sustainability of a Chinese rural region under different policy scenarios: an agent-based model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Chengcheng; Liu, Liming; Qi, Xiaoxing; Fu, Yonghu; Ye, Jinwei

    2017-07-01

    Since China has undergone a series of economic reforms and implemented opening up policies, its farming systems have significantly changed and have dramatically influenced the society, economy, and environment of China. To assess the comprehensive impacts of these changes on food security and environmental sustainability, and establish effective and environment-friendly subsidy policies, this research constructed an agent-based model (ABM). Daligang Town, which is located in the two-season rice region of Southern China, was selected as the case study site. Four different policy scenarios, i.e., "sharply increasing" (SI), "no-increase" (NI), "adjusted-method" (AM), and "trend" (TD) scenarios were investigated from 2015 to 2029. The validation result shows that the relative prediction errors between the simulated and actual values annually ranged from -20 to 20%, indicating the reliability of the proposed model. The scenario analysis revealed that the four scenarios generated different variations in cropping systems, rice yield, and fertilizer and pesticide inputs when the purchase price of rice and the non-agricultural income were assumed to increase annually by 0.1 RMB per kg and 10% per person, respectively. Among the four different policy scenarios in Daligang, the TD scenario was considered the best, because it had a relatively high rice yield, fairly minimal use of fertilizers and pesticides, and a lower level of subsidy. Despite its limitations, ABM could be considered a useful tool in analyzing, exploring, and discussing the comprehensive effects of the changes in farming system on food security and environmental sustainability.

  18. Carbon footprint associated with four disposal scenarios for urban pruning waste.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araújo, Yuri Rommel Vieira; de Góis, Monijany Lins; Junior, Luiz Moreira Coelho; Carvalho, Monica

    2018-01-01

    The inadequate disposal of urban pruning residues can cause significant environmental impacts. The objective of the study presented herein was to quantify the carbon footprint and analyze four disposal scenarios for the urban pruning waste of the city of Joao Pessoa (Northeast Brazil). Software SimaPro was utilized for the quantification of the carbon footprint, with the IPCC 2013 GWP 100y impact evaluation method. The end-of-life treatments considered were sanitary landfilling (with and without collection of methane), simple municipal incineration, and reutilization of wood (transformation into briquettes). The results indicated that simple disposal in sanitary landfill generated 136.34 kg CO 2 /t urban pruning waste collected (highest carbon footprint), sanitary landfill with methane collection emitted 113.43 kg CO 2 /t waste, municipal incineration generated 71.31 kg CO 2 /t waste, and reutilization of woody residues was the scenario with the lowest carbon footprint, with 27.82 kg CO 2 /t waste. This study demonstrated that reutilization of biomass, besides being environmentally viable, presents the potential to contribute to the city's environmental quality, including the possibility of being used to obtain carbon credits.

  19. The origin of the first and third generation fermion masses in a technicolor scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doff, A.; Natale, A.A.

    2004-01-01

    We argue that the masses of the first and third fermionic generations, which are respectively of the order of a few MeV up to a hundred GeV, originate from a dynamical symmetry breaking mechanism leading to masses of the order αμ, where α is a small coupling constant, and μ, in the case of the first fermionic generation, is the scale of the dynamical quark mass (∼250 MeV). For the third fermion generation μ is the value of the dynamical techniquark mass (∼250 GeV). We discuss how this possibility can be implemented in a technicolor scenario, and how the mass of the intermediate generation is generated. (orig.)

  20. Scenarios for the hierarchical evaluation of the global sustainability of electric generator plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roldan A, M.C.; Martinez F, M.

    2007-01-01

    The AHP multi criteria method was applied (Analytic Hierarchy Process-Analytic process of Hierarchization) to evaluate the sustainability in the whole life cycle of the electricity generation technologies (hydroelectric, carboelectric, thermoelectric natural fuel oil, natural gas thermoelectric, geothermal, nucleo electric, wind electric, photo thermic and photovoltaic) with the purpose of offering an useful method in the taking of decisions to impel the sustainable development. Eight scenarios are analyzed. The results in most of the scenarios reflect the benefit of the renewable energy: the hydroelectric energy, photo thermic and wind driven its are those more sustainable. To reach the sustainable development in Mexico, the energy politicians should be more near to the use of the renewable energy. (Author)

  1. Environmental assessment, proposed generating station for Darlington

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1975-04-01

    This document indicates the intention of Ontario Hydro to seek approval from the Provincial Government for its plan to construct and operate a 3400 MWe nuclear generating station at the Darlington site, west of Bowmanville. This preliminary proposal also contains the environmental assessment. The environmental section of this proposal describes and assesses the existing environment and the environmental influences which would occur due to the construction and operation of a nuclear generating station, consisting of four 850 MW units, at the Darlington site. This proposed station is similar to the Bruce GS A station presently under construction. (author)

  2. 2016 Billion-Ton Report: Advancing Domestic Resources for a Thriving Bioeconomy, Volume 2: Environmental Sustainability Effects of Select Scenarios from Volume 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Efroymson, Rebecca Ann [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Langholtz, Matthew H. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2017-01-11

    With the goal of understanding environmental effects of a growing bioeconomy, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), national laboratories, and U.S. Forest Service research laboratories, together with academic and industry collaborators, undertook a study to estimate environmental effects of potential biomass production scenarios in the United States, with an emphasis on agricultural and forest biomass. Potential effects investigated include changes in soil organic carbon (SOC), greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, water quality and quantity, air emissions, and biodiversity. Effects of altered land-management regimes were analyzed based on select county-level biomass-production scenarios for 2017 and 2040 taken from the 2016 Billion-Ton Report: Advancing Domestic Resources for a Thriving Bioeconomy (BT16), volume 1, which assumes that the land bases for agricultural and forestry would not change over time. The scenarios reflect constraints on biomass supply (e.g., excluded areas; implementation of management practices; and consideration of food, feed, forage, and fiber demands and exports) that intend to address sustainability concerns. Nonetheless, both beneficial and adverse environmental effects might be expected. To characterize these potential effects, this research sought to estimate where and under what modeled scenarios or conditions positive and negative environmental effects could occur nationwide. The report also includes a discussion of land-use change (LUC) (i.e., land management change) assumptions associated with the scenario transitions (but not including analysis of indirect LUC [ILUC]), analyses of climate sensitivity of feedstock productivity under a set of potential scenarios, and a qualitative environmental effects analysis of algae production under carbon dioxide (CO2) co-location scenarios. Because BT16 biomass supplies are simulated independent of a defined end use, most analyses do not include benefits from displacing fossil fuels or other

  3. South Korean energy scenarios show how nuclear power can reduce future energy and environmental costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong, Sanghyun; Bradshaw, Corey J.A.; Brook, Barry W.

    2014-01-01

    South Korea is an important case study for understanding the future role of nuclear power in countries with on-going economic growth, and limited renewable energy resources. We compared quantitatively the sustainability of two ‘future-mapping’ exercises (the ‘Governmental’ scenario, which relies on fossil fuels, and the Greenpeace scenario, which emphasises renewable energy and excludes nuclear power). The comparison was based on a range of environmental and technological perspectives, and contrasted against two additional nuclear scenarios that instead envisage a dominant role for nuclear energy. Sustainability metrics included energy costs, external costs (greenhouse-gas emissions, air pollutants, land transformation, water consumption and discharge, and safety) and additional costs. The nuclear-centred scenarios yielded the lowest total cost per unit of final energy consumption by 2050 ($14.37 GJ −1 ), whereas the Greenpeace scenario has the highest ($25.36 GJ −1 ). We used probabilistic simulations based on multi-factor distributional sampling of impact and cost metrics to estimate the overlapping likelihoods among scenarios to understand the effect of parameter uncertainty on the integrated recommendations. Our simulation modelling implies that, despite inherent uncertainties, pursuing a large-scale expansion of nuclear-power capacity offers the most sustainable pathway for South Korea, and that adopting a nuclear-free pathway will be more costly and produce more greenhouse-gas emissions. - Highlights: • Nuclear power has a key role to play in mitigating greenhouse-gas emissions. • The Greenpeace scenario has higher total external cost than the nuclear scenarios. • The nuclear-centred scenarios offer the most sustainable option for South Korea. • The similar conclusions are likely to apply to other Asian countries

  4. Investigating conceptions of intentional action by analyzing participant generated scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skulmowski, Alexander; Bunge, Andreas; Cohen, Bret R.; Kreilkamp, Barbara A. K.; Troxler, Nicole

    2015-01-01

    We describe and report on results of employing a new method for analyzing lay conceptions of intentional and unintentional action. Instead of asking people for their conceptual intuitions with regard to construed scenarios, we asked our participants to come up with their own scenarios and to explain why these are examples of intentional or unintentional actions. By way of content analysis, we extracted contexts and components that people associated with these action types. Our participants associated unintentional actions predominantly with bad outcomes for all persons involved and linked intentional actions more strongly to positive outcomes, especially concerning the agent. People’s conceptions of intentional action seem to involve more aspects than commonly assumed in philosophical models of intentional action that solely stress the importance of intentions, desires, and beliefs. The additional aspects include decisions and thoughts about the action. In addition, we found that the criteria that participants generated for unintentional actions are not a mere inversion of those used in explanations for intentional actions. Associations between involuntariness and unintentional action seem to be stronger than associations between aspects of voluntariness and intentional action. PMID:26594182

  5. Is there a water–energy nexus in electricity generation? Long-term scenarios for the western United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ackerman, Frank; Fisher, Jeremy

    2013-01-01

    Water is required for energy supply, and energy is required for water supply, creating problems as demand for both resources grows. We analyze this “water–energy nexus” as it affects long-run electricity planning in the western United States. We develop four scenarios assuming: no new constraints; limits on carbon emissions; limits on water use; and combined carbon and water limits. We evaluate these scenarios through 2100 under a range of carbon and water prices. The carbon-reducing scenarios become cost-effective at carbon prices of about $50–$70 per ton of CO 2 , moderately high but plausible within the century. In contrast, the water-conserving scenarios are not cost-effective until water prices reach thousands of dollars per acre-foot, well beyond foreseeable levels. This is due in part to the modest available water savings: our most and least water-intensive scenarios differ by less than 1% of the region's water consumption. Under our assumptions, Western electricity generation could be reshaped by the cost of carbon emissions, but not by the cost of water, over the course of this century. Both climate change and water scarcity are of critical importance, but only in the former is electricity generation central to the problem and its solutions. - Highlights: • We model long-run electricity supply and demand for the western United States. • We evaluate the costs of carbon-reducing and water-conserving scenarios. • Carbon-reducing scenarios become cost-effective at carbon prices of $50–70 per ton CO 2 . • Water-conserving scenarios are only cost-effective above $4000/acre-foot of water. • Electricity planning is central to climate policy, but much less so to water planning

  6. Hydropower Generation Vulnerability in the Yangtze River in China under Climate Change Scenarios: Analysis Based on the WEAP Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yue Zhang

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Global warming caused by human activities exacerbates the water cycle, changes precipitation features, such as precipitation amount, intensity and time, and raises uncertainties in water resources. This work uses run-off data obtained using climate change models under representative concentration pathways (RCPs and selects the Yangtze River Basin as the research boundary to evaluate and analyse the vulnerability of hydropower generation in 2016–2050 on the basis of the water evaluation and planning model. Results show that the amount of rainfall during 2016–2050 in the Yangtze River Basin is estimated to increase with fluctuations in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. In the RCP4.5 scenario, hydropower stations exhibit large fluctuations in generating capacity, which present the trend of an increase after a decrease; in the RCP8.5 scenario, the generating capacity of hydropower stations in the Yangtze River Basin presents a steady increase. Over 50% of the generating capacity in the Yangtze River Basin is produced from the Three Gorges Dam and 10 other hydropower stations. Over 90% is generated in eight river basins, including the Jinsha, Ya-lung and Min Rivers. Therefore, climate change may accelerate changes in the Yangtze River Basin and further lead to vulnerability of hydropower generation.

  7. Selecting Days for Concept and Technology Evaluation in SMART-NAS Test-Bed Scenario Generation, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Crown Consulting, Inc. will investigate and demonstrate methods to enable rapid selection of days for scenario generation in the development and evaluation of Air...

  8. Scenarios in society, society in scenarios: toward a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garb, Yaakov; Pulver, Simone; VanDeveer, Stacy D

    2008-01-01

    Scenario analysis, an approach to thinking about alternative futures based on storyline-driven modeling, has become increasingly common and important in attempts to understand and respond to the impacts of human activities on natural systems at a variety of scales. The construction of scenarios is a fundamentally social activity, yet social scientific perspectives have rarely been brought to bear on it. Indeed, there is a growing imbalance between the increasing technical sophistication of the modeling elements of scenarios and the continued simplicity of our understanding of the social origins, linkages, and implications of the narratives to which they are coupled. Drawing on conceptual and methodological tools from science and technology studies, sociology and political science, we offer an overview of what a social scientific analysis of scenarios might include. In particular, we explore both how scenarios intervene in social microscale and macroscale contexts and how aspects of such contexts are embedded in scenarios, often implicitly. Analyzing the social 'work' of scenarios (i) can enhance the understanding of scenario developers and modeling practitioners of the knowledge production processes in which they participate and (ii) can improve the utility of scenario products as decision-support tools to actual, rather than imagined, decision-makers.

  9. Environmental performance of construction waste: Comparing three scenarios from a case study in Catalonia, Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortiz, O; Pasqualino, J C; Castells, F

    2010-04-01

    The main objective of this paper is to evaluate environmental impacts of construction wastes in terms of the LIFE 98 ENV/E/351 project. Construction wastes are classified in accordance with the Life Program Environment Directive of the European Commission. Three different scenarios to current waste management from a case study in Catalonia (Spain) have been compared: landfilling, recycling and incineration, and these scenarios were evaluated by means of Life Cycle Assessment. The recommendations of the Catalan Waste Catalogue and the European Waste Catalogue have been taken into account. Also, the influence of transport has been evaluated. Results show that in terms of the Global Warming Potential, the most environmentally friendly treatment was recycling, followed by incineration and lastly landfilling. According to the influence of treatment plants location on the GWP indicator, we observe that incineration and recycling of construction wastes are better than landfilling, even for long distances from the building site to the plants. This is true for most wastes except for the stony types, than should be recycled close to the building site. In summary, data from construction waste of a Catalan case study was evaluated using the well established method of LCA to determine the environmental impacts. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Environmental performance of construction waste: Comparing three scenarios from a case study in Catalonia, Spain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ortiz, O.; Pasqualino, J.C.; Castells, F.

    2010-01-01

    The main objective of this paper is to evaluate environmental impacts of construction wastes in terms of the LIFE 98 ENV/E/351 project. Construction wastes are classified in accordance with the Life Program Environment Directive of the European Commission. Three different scenarios to current waste management from a case study in Catalonia (Spain) have been compared: landfilling, recycling and incineration, and these scenarios were evaluated by means of Life Cycle Assessment. The recommendations of the Catalan Waste Catalogue and the European Waste Catalogue have been taken into account. Also, the influence of transport has been evaluated. Results show that in terms of the Global Warming Potential, the most environmentally friendly treatment was recycling, followed by incineration and lastly landfilling. According to the influence of treatment plants location on the GWP indicator, we observe that incineration and recycling of construction wastes are better than landfilling, even for long distances from the building site to the plants. This is true for most wastes except for the stony types, than should be recycled close to the building site. In summary, data from construction waste of a Catalan case study was evaluated using the well established method of LCA to determine the environmental impacts.

  11. Needs for Flexibility in Energy Systems Caused by the Increasing Share of Variable Renewable Energy Generation in 2020, 2030 and 2050 Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koivisto, Matti Juhani; Sørensen, Poul Ejnar; Maule, Petr

    scenarios are the baseline scenarios from3. Variable renewable energy generation is analysed using the CorWind tool developed at DTU Wind Energya. In addition to analysing VRE generation, the variability of net load (electricity consumption subtracted by VRE generation) is analysed. Compared to 2014...... consumption). However, there is always some probability that the aggregate VRE generation is zero, so the highest possible net load is determined by peak consumption. This may raise questions considering the incentives to hold enough other generation capacity to meet the rare peak net load. Compared...... to the hourly ramp rates in consumption, the increasing VRE generation increases the ramp rates in the aggregate net load only moderately in the future scenarios; STD of the net load ramp rate in 2050 is expected to be 14% higher than in 2014. However, while ramp rates in consumption happen usually at well...

  12. Assessment of the health and environmental effects of power generation in the Midwest. Volume II. Ecological effects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dvorak, A J; Pentecost, E D

    1977-04-01

    This report presents an initial evaluation of the major health and environmental issues associated with increased coal use in the six Midwestern states of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin. Using an integrated assessment approach, the evaluation proceeds from a base-line scenario of energy demand and facility siting for the period 1975 to 2020. Emphasis is placed on impacts from coal extraction, land reclamation, coal combustion for electrical generation, and coal gasification. The range of potential impacts and constraints is illustrated by a second scenario that represents an expected upper limit for coal utilization in Illinois. Volume I of the report includes a characterization of the energy demand and siting scenarios, coal related technologies, and coal resources, and the related impacts on air quality, water quality, and human health. Volume II includes background information on the native ecosystems, climate, soils, and agricultural land use and a description of the ecological impacts expected from coal utilization in southern Illinois, which as ecosystems representative of a large segment of the six-state area.

  13. Environmental and economic analysis of power generation in a thermophilic biogas plant.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz, D; San Miguel, G; Corona, B; Gaitero, A; Domínguez, A

    2018-08-15

    This paper investigates the environmental and economic performance of the power production from biogas using Life Cycle Assessment, Life Cycle Costing and Cost Benefit Analysis methodologies. The analysis is based on a commercial thermophilic biogas plant located in Spain where is installed a Combined Heat and Power system that produces electricity that is sold to the grid. Power generation has been assumed as the only function of the biogas system, expanding the system boundaries to include the additional function related to the end-of-life management of the biowastes. Thus environmental burdens from the conventional management of residues were calculated separately and subtracted. The base scenario involves using agri-food waste, sewage sludge and pig/cow manure as substrates. This situation is compared against an alternative scenario where the production of synthetic fertilizer is surrogated by the digestate. The results have shown that the most impacting activities in all impacts categories of power production are primarily attributable to the operation and maintenance of the biogas plant except for water resource depletion and climate change. The avoided emissions associated with the conventional management of pig/cow manure more than offset GHG emissions of the biogas system resulting in a negative impact value of -73.9gCO 2 eq/kWh in the base case scenario. The normalized results show that local impact categories such as primarily human toxicity, fresh water ecotoxicity and particulate matter are the most significantly affected by the biogas system while global impact categories as climate change and ozone depletion are less severely affected. The operation and maintenance phase is also shown to be the largest contributor after the life cycle cost analysis, followed by the construction and dismantling of the biogas plant and the profitability of the project is primarily related to the income obtained from the management of the biowastes used as substrates

  14. Anticipating and Communicating Plausible Environmental and Health Concerns Associated with Future Disasters: The ShakeOut and ARkStorm Scenarios as Examples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plumlee, G. S.; Morman, S. A.; Alpers, C. N.; Hoefen, T. M.; Meeker, G. P.

    2010-12-01

    Disasters commonly pose immediate threats to human safety, but can also produce hazardous materials (HM) that pose short- and long-term environmental-health threats. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has helped assess potential environmental health characteristics of HM produced by various natural and anthropogenic disasters, such as the 2001 World Trade Center collapse, 2005 hurricanes Katrina and Rita, 2007-2009 southern California wildfires, various volcanic eruptions, and others. Building upon experience gained from these responses, we are now developing methods to anticipate plausible environmental and health implications of the 2008 Great Southern California ShakeOut scenario (which modeled the impacts of a 7.8 magnitude earthquake on the southern San Andreas fault, http://urbanearth.gps.caltech.edu/scenario08/), and the recent ARkStorm scenario (modeling the impacts of a major, weeks-long winter storm hitting nearly all of California, http://urbanearth.gps.caltech.edu/winter-storm/). Environmental-health impacts of various past earthquakes and extreme storms are first used to identify plausible impacts that could be associated with the disaster scenarios. Substantial insights can then be gleaned using a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) approach to link ShakeOut and ARkStorm effects maps with data extracted from diverse database sources containing geologic, hazards, and environmental information. This type of analysis helps constrain where potential geogenic (natural) and anthropogenic sources of HM (and their likely types of contaminants or pathogens) fall within areas of predicted ShakeOut-related shaking, firestorms, and landslides, and predicted ARkStorm-related precipitation, flooding, and winds. Because of uncertainties in the event models and many uncertainties in the databases used (e.g., incorrect location information, lack of detailed information on specific facilities, etc.) this approach should only be considered as the first of multiple steps

  15. Assessing groundwater pollution hazard changes under different socio-economic and environmental scenarios in an agricultural watershed

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lima, M. Lourdes, E-mail: mlima@mdp.edu.ar [Instituto de Geología de Costas y del Cuaternario, FCEyN, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Funes 3350, Nivel 1, 7600 Mar del Plata (Argentina); Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET) (Argentina); Romanelli, Asunción, E-mail: aromanel@mdp.edu.ar [Instituto de Geología de Costas y del Cuaternario, FCEyN, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Funes 3350, Nivel 1, 7600 Mar del Plata (Argentina); Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas y Costeras (IIMyC), Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET) (Argentina); Massone, Héctor E., E-mail: hmassone@mdp.edu.ar [Instituto de Geología de Costas y del Cuaternario, FCEyN, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Funes 3350, Nivel 1, 7600 Mar del Plata (Argentina)

    2015-10-15

    This paper proposes a modeling approach for assessing changes in groundwater pollution hazard under two different socio-economic and environmental scenarios: The first one considers an exponential growth of agriculture land-use (Relegated Sustainability), while the other deals with regional economic growth, taking into account, the restrictions put on natural resources use (Sustainability Reforms). The recent (2011) and forecasted (2030) groundwater pollution hazard is evaluated based on hydrogeological parameters and, the impact of land-use changes in the groundwater system, coupling together a land-use change model (Dyna-CLUE) with a groundwater flow model (MODFLOW), as inputs to a decision system support (EMDS). The Dulce Stream Watershed (Pampa Plain, Argentina) was chosen to test the usefulness and utility of this proposed method. It includes a high level of agricultural activities, significant local extraction of groundwater resources for drinking water and irrigation and extensive available data regarding aquifer features. The Relegated Sustainability Scenario showed a negative change in the aquifer system, increasing (+ 20%; high–very high classes) the contribution to groundwater pollution hazard throughout the watershed. On the other hand, the Sustainability Reforms Scenario displayed more balanced land-use changes with a trend towards sustainability, therefore proposing a more acceptable change in the aquifer system for 2030 with a possible 2% increase (high–very high classes) in groundwater pollution hazard. Results in the recent scenario (2011) showed that 54% of Dulce Stream Watershed still shows a moderate to a very low contribution to groundwater pollution hazard (mainly in the lower area). Therefore, from the point of view of natural resource management, this is a positive aspect, offering possibilities for intervention in order to prevent deterioration and protect this aquifer system. However, since it is quite possible that this aquifer status

  16. Environmental and economic life cycle assessment for sewage sludge treatment processes in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Jinglan; Hong, Jingmin; Otaki, Masahiro; Jolliet, Olivier

    2009-02-01

    Life cycle assessment for sewage sludge treatment was carried out by estimating the environmental and economic impacts of the six alternative scenarios most often used in Japan: dewatering, composting, drying, incineration, incinerated ash melting and dewatered sludge melting, each with or without digestion. Three end-of-life treatments were also studied: landfilling, agricultural application and building material application. The results demonstrate that sewage sludge digestion can reduce the environmental load and cost through reduced dry matter volume. The global warming potential (GWP) generated from incineration and melting processes can be significantly reduced through the reuse of waste heat for electricity and/or heat generation. Equipment production in scenarios except dewatering has an important effect on GWP, whereas the contribution of construction is negligible. In addition, the results show that the dewatering scenario has the highest impact on land use and cost, the drying scenario has the highest impact on GWP and acidification, and the incinerated ash melting scenario has the highest impact on human toxicity due to re-emissions of heavy metals from incinerated ash in the melting unit process. On the contrary, the dewatering, composting and incineration scenarios generate the lowest impact on human toxicity, land use and acidification, respectively, and the incinerated ash melting scenario has the lowest impact on GWP and cost. Heavy metals released from atmospheric effluents generated the highest human toxicity impact, with the effect of dioxin emissions being significantly lower. This study proved that the dewatered sludge melting scenario is an environmentally optimal and economically affordable method.

  17. Appendix 2. Guide for Running AgMIP Climate Scenario Generation Tools with R in Windows, Version 2.3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudson, Nicholas; Ruane, Alexander Clark

    2013-01-01

    This Guide explains how to create climate series and climate change scenarios by using the AgMip Climate team's methodology as outlined in the AgMIP Guide for Regional Assessment: Handbook of Methods and Procedures. It details how to: install R and the required packages to run the AgMIP Climate Scenario Generation scripts, and create climate scenarios from CMIP5 GCMs using a 30-year baseline daily weather dataset. The Guide also outlines a workflow that can be modified for application to your own climate data.

  18. Multi-Criteria Analysis of Electricity Generation Scenarios for Sustainable Energy Planning in Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nayyar Hussain Mirjat

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The now over a decade-long electricity crisis in Pakistan has adversely affected the socio-economic development of the country. This situation is mainly due to a lack of sustainable energy planning and policy formulation. In this context, energy models can be of great help but only a handful of such efforts have been undertaken in Pakistan. Two key shortcomings pertaining to energy models lead to their low utilization in developing countries. First, the models do not effectively make decisions, but rather provide a set of alternatives based on modeling parameters; and secondly, the complexity of these models is often poorly understood by the decision makers. As such, in this study, the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP methodology of Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM has been used for the sustainability assessment of energy modeling results for long-term electricity planning. The four scenario alternatives developed in the energy modeling effort, Reference (REF, Renewable Energy Technologies (RET, Clean Coal Maximum (CCM and Energy Efficiency and Conservation (EEC, have been ranked using the Expert Choice® tool based on the AHP methodology. The AHP decision support framework of this study revealed the EEC scenario as the most favorable electricity generation scenario followed by the REF, RET and CCM scenarios. Besides that, this study proposes policy recommendations to undertake integrated energy modeling and decision analysis for sustainable energy planning in Pakistan.

  19. Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines (Final Report)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA announced the availability of the final report, Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines. This report describes the scenarios and models used to generate national-scale housing density scenarios for the con...

  20. Strategies to reduce the environmental impact of an aluminium pressure die casting plant: A scenario analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Neto, B.; Kroeze, C.; Hordijk, L.; Costa, C.; Pulles, M.P.J.

    2009-01-01

    This study explores a model (MIKADO) to analyse scenarios for the reduction of the environmental impact of an aluminium die casting plant. Our model calculates the potential to reduce emissions, and the costs associated with implementation of reduction options. In an earlier paper [Neto, B., Kroeze,

  1. Report to the NRC on guidance for preparing scenarios for emergency preparedness exercises at nuclear generating stations. Draft report for comment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, G.F.; Hickey, E.E.; Moeller, M.P.; Schultz, D.H.; Bethke, G.W.

    1986-03-01

    A scenario guidance handbook was prepared to assist emergency planners in developing scenarios for emergency preparedness exercises at nuclear power plants. The handbook provides guidance for the development of the objectives of an exercise, the descriptions of scenario events and responses, and the instructions to the participants. Information concerning implementation of the scenario, critiques and findings, and generation and format of scenario data are also included. Finally, examples of manual calculational techniques for producing radiological data are included as an appendix

  2. Hydroelectric power generation in an Alpine basin: future water-energy scenarios in a run-of-the-river plant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bongio, Marco; Avanzi, Francesco; De Michele, Carlo

    2016-08-01

    We investigate scenarios of hydroelectric power generation for an Alpine run-of-the-river plant in 2050. To this end, we include a conversion from streamflow to energy in a hydrological model of the basin, and we introduce a set of benchmark climate scenarios to evaluate expected future production. These are a "future-like-present" scenario assuming future precipitation and temperature inputs to be statistically equivalent to those observed during the recent past at the same location, a "warmer-future" scenario, which considers an additional increase in temperature, and a "liquid-only" scenario where only liquid precipitation is admitted. In addition, two IPCC-like climatic scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) are considered. Uncertainty in glaciers' volume is accounted by initializing the hydrological model with two different inventories of glaciers. Ensemble results reveal that 1) an average decrease between -40% and -19% of hydroelectric power generation in 2050 is predicted at the plant considered (with respect to present condition); 2) an average decrease between -20% and -38% of cumulative incoming streamflow volume at the plant is also predicted, again with respect to present condition; 3) these effects are associated with a strong average decrease of the volume of glaciers (between -76% and -96%, depending on the initial value considered). However, Monte Carlo simulations show that results are also prone to high uncertainties. Implications of these results for run-of-the-river plants are discussed.

  3. Integrated life-cycle assessment of electricity-supply scenarios confirms global environmental benefit of low-carbon technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hertwich, Edgar G; Gibon, Thomas; Bouman, Evert A; Arvesen, Anders; Suh, Sangwon; Heath, Garvin A; Bergesen, Joseph D; Ramirez, Andrea; Vega, Mabel I; Shi, Lei

    2015-05-19

    Decarbonization of electricity generation can support climate-change mitigation and presents an opportunity to address pollution resulting from fossil-fuel combustion. Generally, renewable technologies require higher initial investments in infrastructure than fossil-based power systems. To assess the tradeoffs of increased up-front emissions and reduced operational emissions, we present, to our knowledge, the first global, integrated life-cycle assessment (LCA) of long-term, wide-scale implementation of electricity generation from renewable sources (i.e., photovoltaic and solar thermal, wind, and hydropower) and of carbon dioxide capture and storage for fossil power generation. We compare emissions causing particulate matter exposure, freshwater ecotoxicity, freshwater eutrophication, and climate change for the climate-change-mitigation (BLUE Map) and business-as-usual (Baseline) scenarios of the International Energy Agency up to 2050. We use a vintage stock model to conduct an LCA of newly installed capacity year-by-year for each region, thus accounting for changes in the energy mix used to manufacture future power plants. Under the Baseline scenario, emissions of air and water pollutants more than double whereas the low-carbon technologies introduced in the BLUE Map scenario allow a doubling of electricity supply while stabilizing or even reducing pollution. Material requirements per unit generation for low-carbon technologies can be higher than for conventional fossil generation: 11-40 times more copper for photovoltaic systems and 6-14 times more iron for wind power plants. However, only two years of current global copper and one year of iron production will suffice to build a low-carbon energy system capable of supplying the world's electricity needs in 2050.

  4. An analysis of long-term scenarios for the transition to renewable energy in the Korean electricity sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Nyun-Bae; Yun, Sun-Jin; Jeon, Eui-Chan

    2013-01-01

    This paper analyzes the energy, environmental and economic influences of three electricity scenarios in Korea by 2050 using the “Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system” (LEAP) model. The reference year was 2008. Scenarios include the baseline (BL), new governmental policy (GP) and sustainable society (SS) scenarios. The growth rate of electricity demand in the GP scenario was higher than that of the BL scenario while the growth rate in the SS scenario was lower than that of the BL scenario. Greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation in 2050 in the BL and GP scenarios were similar with current emissions. However, emissions in 2050 in the SS scenario were about 80% lower than emissions in 2008, because of the expansion of renewable electricity in spite of the phase-out of nuclear energy. While nuclear and coal-fired power plants accounted for most of the electricity generated in the BL and GP scenarios in 2050, the SS scenario projected that renewable energy would generate the most electricity in 2050. It was found that the discounted cumulative costs from 2009 to 2050 in the SS scenario would be 20 and 10% higher than that of the BL and GP scenarios, respectively. - Highlights: ► This paper analyzed three kinds of electricity scenarios in Korea by 2050 using LEAP model. Baseline and governmental policy scenarios focus on the electricity supply through nuclear expansion. ► Sustainable Society scenario focuses on demand management and renewable electricity. ► The latter improves energy security and reduces more GHG with the affordable cost.

  5. Integrated environmental assessment of future energy scenarios based on economic equilibrium models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Igos, E.; Rugani, B.; Rege, S.; Benetto, E.; Drouet, L.; Zachary, D.; Haas, T.

    2014-01-01

    The future evolution of energy supply technologies strongly depends on (and affects) the economic and environmental systems, due to the high dependency of this sector on the availability and cost of fossil fuels, especially on the small regional scale. This paper aims at presenting the modeling system and preliminary results of a research project conducted on the scale of Luxembourg to assess the environmental impact of future energy scenarios for the country, integrating outputs from partial and computable general equilibrium models within hybrid Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) frameworks. The general equilibrium model for Luxembourg, LUXGEM, is used to evaluate the economic impacts of policy decisions and other economic shocks over the time horizon 2006-2030. A techno-economic (partial equilibrium) model for Luxembourg, ETEM, is used instead to compute operation levels of various technologies to meet the demand for energy services at the least cost along the same timeline. The future energy demand and supply are made consistent by coupling ETEM with LUXGEM so as to have the same macro-economic variables and energy shares driving both models. The coupling results are then implemented within a set of Environmentally-Extended Input-Output (EE-IO) models in historical time series to test the feasibility of the integrated framework and then to assess the environmental impacts of the country. Accordingly, a dis-aggregated energy sector was built with the different ETEM technologies in the EE-IO to allow hybridization with Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) and enrich the process detail. The results show that the environmental impact slightly decreased overall from 2006 to 2009. Most of the impacts come from some imported commodities (natural gas, used to produce electricity, and metalliferous ores and metal scrap). The main energy production technology is the combined-cycle gas turbine plant 'Twinerg', representing almost 80% of the domestic electricity production in Luxembourg

  6. Decarbonization scenarios in the electricity sector in Vietnam

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dang, Van Thanh

    2016-01-01

    Reduction of CO_2 emissions issue is clearly a world challenge today and COP21 highlighted the international requirements for countries to address related issues in the short and long term. The fundamental objective of the thesis is to contribute to the identification of possible climate policy solutions related to growing electricity production in a developing country, namely Vietnam, taking into account the need to reduce carbon energy sources. For this purpose several scenarios for electricity sector development are constructed in order to measure effects of choices related to the electricity production on CO_2 emissions. The thesis presents an overview of the energy situation in Vietnam and highlights the rapid increase in electricity consumption due to population pressure and new needs. It also considers major issues of coal and gas imports, new energy sources, in light of economic constraints but also environmental challenges. The theoretical and analytical chapter reviews the analyses of electricity master plans construction, major available economic tools for energy demand forecast models. This forms the framework to understanding the complexity of the 'electric bet' which Vietnam faces. After a presentation of potential quantitative simulation instruments, ELECsim was chosen for modeling the electricity sector in Vietnam. This leads to a comprehensive scenario approach; Scenarios are based on several assumptions about the evolution of economic growth and demographics, energy prices, the power generation technology development, the declared carbon value, discount rates and change rate. As a first step in energy and climate policy Vietnam can control the demand growth by strong action on energy efficiency, while reducing parallel to both the electricity production costs and CO_2 emissions. Several scenarios are then proposed, highlighting both the need to search for higher energy efficiency and the promotion of low-carbon energies. Research envisages a rapid

  7. Environmental evaluation of different forms of electric energy generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guena, Ana Maria de Oliveira

    2007-01-01

    Electric energy has an important function in the modem world; it is fundamental for progress and development. The electricity discovery allowed improvements in several areas: health, water and food supply, quality of life and sanitary conditions, and contributed also to the establishment of the capitalist and consumption society. The use of oil as an energy generation source was the impulse for the industrial revolution and machines, motors and generators were developed contributing to the progress This also brought the pollutant gases emission (CO 2 , CO, SO x and NO x ) and other substances that had contributed to the greenhouse effect, the ozone hole and the acid rain, modifying the balance of the planet. The development and implementation of other forms of energy generation caused local changes, where they were installed, giving rise to environmental impacts. This work presents an evaluation about different forms of electrical energy generation and the environmental impacts relative to each one of them. Five forms of electric energy generation were considered: thermoelectric, nuclear, hydroelectric, wind and solar energy. The implementation and the development of the petroleum industry in the world and in Brazil are presented. The geology of the oil, its extraction and quality improvement, besides details of the functioning of three types of thermoelectric power plants - coal, gas and oil - are also discussed. The specific as well as the environmental impacts they have in common are highlighted. The impacts originated from the deactivation of each one of them are also pointed out. The discovery and the development of nuclear energy in Brazil and in the world as well as the functioning of a nuclear power plant, the impacts generated by its operation and decommissioning are presented. The history, functioning and development of hydroelectric energy generation in Brazil, characterized by the great plants, are related to environmental aspects The environmental

  8. Environmental evaluation of different forms of electric energy generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guena, Ana Maria de Oliveira; Aquino, Afonso Rodrigues de

    2007-01-01

    The development and implementation of other forms of energy generation caused local changes, where they were installed, giving rise to environmental impacts. This work presents an evaluation about different forms of electrical energy generation and the environmental impacts relative to each one of them. Five forms of electric energy generation were considered: thermoelectric, nuclear, hydroelectric, wind and solar energy. The implementation and the development of the petroleum industry in the world and in Brazil are presented. The geology of the oil, its extraction and quality improvement, besides details of the functioning of three types of thermoelectric power plants - coal, gas and oil - are also discussed. The specific as well as the environmental impacts they have in common are highlighted. The impacts originated from the deactivation of each one of them are also pointed out. Once outlined the environmental impacts from each form of electric energy generation, they were correlated and compared considering the area of the power plant implantation, the generation capacity, the efficiency, the power and the cost per kW. There is no totally clean form of electric energy generation. There is, however, generation without emission of gases responsible for the green house effect. Therefore, all forms of energy generation are important for a country; in other words, the best situation is the diversity of the energy matrix. (author)

  9. 2016 Billion-Ton Report: Advancing Domestic Resources for a Thriving Bioeconomy, Volume 2: Environmental Sustainability Effects of Select Scenarios from Volume 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Efroymson, Rebecca Ann [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Langholtz, Matthew H. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Johnson, Kristen [Dept. of Energy (DOE), Washington DC (United States); Stokes, Bryce [Allegheny Science & Technology, LLC, Bridgeport, WV (United States); Brandt, Craig C. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Davis, Maggie R. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Hellwinckel, Chad [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Kline, Keith L. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Eaton, Laurence M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Dunn, Jennifer [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Canter, Christina E. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Qin, Zhangcai [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Cai, Hao [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Wang, Michael [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Scott, D. Andrew [USDA Forest Service, Normal, AL (United States); Jager, Henrietta I. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Wu, May [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Ha, Miae [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Baskaran, Latha Malar [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Kreig, Jasmine A. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Rau, Benjamin [USDA Forest Service, Aiken, SC (United States); Muwamba, Augustine [Univ. of Georgia, Athens, GA (United States); Trettin, Carl [USDA Forest Service, Aiken, SC (United States); Panda, Sudhanshu [Univ. of North Georgia, Oakwood, GA (United States); Amatya, Devendra M. [USDA Forest Service, Aiken, SC (United States); Tollner, Ernest W. [USDA Forest Service, Aiken, SC (United States); Sun, Ge [USDA Forest Service, Aiken, SC (United States); Zhang, Liangxia [USDA Forest Service, Aiken, SC (United States); Duan, Kai [North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC (United States); Warner, Ethan [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Zhang, Yimin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Inman, Daniel [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Eberle, Annika [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Carpenter, Alberta [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Heath, Garvin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hettinger, Dylan [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Wang, Gangsheng [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Sutton, Nathan J. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Busch, Ingrid Karin [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Donner, Deahn M. [USDA Forest Service, Aiken, SC (United States); Wigley, T. Bently [National Council for Air and Stream Improvement (NCASI), Research Triangle Park, NC (United States); Miller, Darren A. [Weyerhaeuser Company, Federal Way, WA (United States); Coleman, Andre [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wigmosta, Mark [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Pattullo, Molly [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Mayes, Melanie [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Daly, Christopher [Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR (United States); Halbleib, Mike [Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR (United States); Negri, Cristina [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Turhollow, Anthony F. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Bonner, Ian [Monsanto Company, Twin Falls, ID (United States); Dale, Virginia H. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2017-01-01

    With the goal of understanding environmental effects of a growing bioeconomy, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), national laboratories, and U.S. Forest Service research laboratories, together with academic and industry collaborators, undertook a study to estimate environmental effects of potential biomass production scenarios in the United States, with an emphasis on agricultural and forest biomass. Potential effects investigated include changes in soil organic carbon (SOC), greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, water quality and quantity, air emissions, and biodiversity. Effects of altered land-management regimes were analyzed based on select county-level biomass-production scenarios for 2017 and 2040 taken from the 2016 Billion-Ton Report: Advancing Domestic Resources for a Thriving Bioeconomy (BT16), volume 1, which assumes that the land bases for agricultural and forestry would not change over time. The scenarios reflect constraints on biomass supply (e.g., excluded areas; implementation of management practices; and consideration of food, feed, forage, and fiber demands and exports) that intend to address sustainability concerns. Nonetheless, both beneficial and adverse environmental effects might be expected. To characterize these potential effects, this research sought to estimate where and under what modeled scenarios or conditions positive and negative environmental effects could occur nationwide. The report also includes a discussion of land-use change (LUC) (i.e., land management change) assumptions associated with the scenario transitions (but not including analysis of indirect LUC [ILUC]), analyses of climate sensitivity of feedstock productivity under a set of potential scenarios, and a qualitative environmental effects analysis of algae production under carbon dioxide (CO2) co-location scenarios. Because BT16 biomass supplies are simulated independent of a defined end use, most analyses do not include benefits from displacing fossil fuels or

  10. Toward refined environmental scenarios for ecological risk assessment of down-the-drain chemicals in freshwater environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franco, Antonio; Price, Oliver R; Marshall, Stuart; Jolliet, Olivier; Van den Brink, Paul J; Rico, Andreu; Focks, Andreas; De Laender, Frederik; Ashauer, Roman

    2017-03-01

    Current regulatory practice for chemical risk assessment suffers from the lack of realism in conventional frameworks. Despite significant advances in exposure and ecological effect modeling, the implementation of novel approaches as high-tier options for prospective regulatory risk assessment remains limited, particularly among general chemicals such as down-the-drain ingredients. While reviewing the current state of the art in environmental exposure and ecological effect modeling, we propose a scenario-based framework that enables a better integration of exposure and effect assessments in a tiered approach. Global- to catchment-scale spatially explicit exposure models can be used to identify areas of higher exposure and to generate ecologically relevant exposure information for input into effect models. Numerous examples of mechanistic ecological effect models demonstrate that it is technically feasible to extrapolate from individual-level effects to effects at higher levels of biological organization and from laboratory to environmental conditions. However, the data required to parameterize effect models that can embrace the complexity of ecosystems are large and require a targeted approach. Experimental efforts should, therefore, focus on vulnerable species and/or traits and ecological conditions of relevance. We outline key research needs to address the challenges that currently hinder the practical application of advanced model-based approaches to risk assessment of down-the-drain chemicals. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:233-248. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

  11. vNet Zero Energy for Radio Base Stations- Balearic Scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sabater, Pere; Mihovska, Albena Dimitrova; Pol, Andreu Moia

    2016-01-01

    The Balearic Islands have one of the best telecommunications infrastructures in Spain, with more than 1500 Radio Base Stations (RBS) covering a total surface of 4.991,66 km². This archipelago has high energy consumption, with high CO2 emissions, due to an electrical energy production system mainly...... based on coal and fossil fuels which is not an environmentally sustainable scenario. The aim of this study is to identify the processes that would reduce the energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, designing a target scenario featuring "zero CO2 emissions" and "100% renewable energies" in RBS....... The energy costs, CO2 emissions and data traffic data used for the study are generated by a sample of RBS from the Balearic Islands. The results are shown in terms of energy performance for a normal and net zero emissions scenarios....

  12. Simulation and Evaluation of Pollution Load Reduction Scenarios for Water Environmental Management: A Case Study of Inflow River of Taihu Lake, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ruibin; Qian, Xin; Zhu, Wenting; Gao, Hailong; Hu, Wei; Wang, Jinhua

    2014-01-01

    In the beginning of the 21st century, the deterioration of water quality in Taihu Lake, China, has caused widespread concern. The primary source of pollution in Taihu Lake is river inflows. Effective pollution load reduction scenarios need to be implemented in these rivers in order to improve the water quality of Taihu Lake. It is important to select appropriate pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving particular goals. The aim of this study was to facilitate the selection of appropriate scenarios. The QUAL2K model for river water quality was used to simulate the effects of a range of pollution load reduction scenarios in the Wujin River, which is one of the major inflow rivers of Taihu Lake. The model was calibrated for the year 2010 and validated for the year 2011. Various pollution load reduction scenarios were assessed using an analytic hierarchy process, and increasing rates of evaluation indicators were predicted using the Delphi method. The results showed that control of pollution from the source is the optimal method for pollution prevention and control, and the method of “Treatment after Pollution” has bad environmental, social and ecological effects. The method applied in this study can assist for environmental managers to select suitable pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving various objectives. PMID:25207492

  13. Simulation and evaluation of pollution load reduction scenarios for water environmental management: a case study of inflow river of Taihu Lake, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ruibin; Qian, Xin; Zhu, Wenting; Gao, Hailong; Hu, Wei; Wang, Jinhua

    2014-09-09

    In the beginning of the 21st century, the deterioration of water quality in Taihu Lake, China, has caused widespread concern. The primary source of pollution in Taihu Lake is river inflows. Effective pollution load reduction scenarios need to be implemented in these rivers in order to improve the water quality of Taihu Lake. It is important to select appropriate pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving particular goals. The aim of this study was to facilitate the selection of appropriate scenarios. The QUAL2K model for river water quality was used to simulate the effects of a range of pollution load reduction scenarios in the Wujin River, which is one of the major inflow rivers of Taihu Lake. The model was calibrated for the year 2010 and validated for the year 2011. Various pollution load reduction scenarios were assessed using an analytic hierarchy process, and increasing rates of evaluation indicators were predicted using the Delphi method. The results showed that control of pollution from the source is the optimal method for pollution prevention and control, and the method of "Treatment after Pollution" has bad environmental, social and ecological effects. The method applied in this study can assist for environmental managers to select suitable pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving various objectives.

  14. Scenario-informed multiple criteria analysis for prioritizing investments in electricity capacity expansion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinez, Lauro J.; Lambert, James H.; Karvetski, Christopher W.

    2011-01-01

    Planning the expansion and energy security of electricity capacity for a national electricity utility is a complex task in almost any economy. Planning is usually an iterative activity and can involve the use of large scale planning optimization systems accompanied by assessment of uncertain scenarios emerging from economic, technological, environmental, and regulatory developments. This paper applies a multiple criteria decision analysis to prioritize investment portfolios in capacity expansion and energy security while principally studying the robustness of the prioritization to multiple uncertain and emergent scenarios. The scenarios are identified through interaction with decision makers and stakeholders. The approach finds which scenarios most affect the prioritization of the portfolios and which portfolios have the greatest upside and downside potential across scenarios. The approach fosters innovation in the use of robust and efficient technologies, renewable energy sources, and cleaner energy fuels. A demonstration is provided for assessing the performance of technology portfolios constructed from investments in nine electricity generation technologies in Mexico.

  15. Integrative Scenario Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joerg A. Priess

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Scenarios are employed to address a large number of future environmental and socioeconomic challenges. We present a conceptual framework for the development of scenarios to integrate the objectives of different stakeholder groups. Based on the framework, land-use scenarios were developed to provide a common base for further research. At the same time, these scenarios assisted regional stakeholders to bring forward their concerns and arrive at a shared understanding of challenges between scientific and regional stakeholders, which allowed them to eventually support regional decision making. The focus on the integration of views and knowledge domains of different stakeholder groups, such as scientists and practitioners, required rigorous and repeated measures of quality control. The application of the integrative concept provided products for both stakeholder groups, and the process of scenario development facilitated cooperation and learning within both the scientist and practitioner groups as well as between the two groups.

  16. A Generalized Deforestation and Land-Use Change Scenario Generator for Use in Climate Modelling Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tompkins, Adrian Mark; Caporaso, Luca; Biondi, Riccardo; Bell, Jean Pierre

    2015-01-01

    A new deforestation and land-use change scenario generator model (FOREST-SAGE) is presented that is designed to interface directly with dynamic vegetation models used in latest generation earth system models. The model requires a regional-scale scenario for aggregate land-use change that may be time-dependent, provided by observational studies or by regional land-use change/economic models for future projections. These land-use categories of the observations/economic model are first translated into equivalent plant function types used by the particular vegetation model, and then FOREST-SAGE disaggregates the regional-scale scenario to the local grid-scale of the earth system model using a set of risk-rules based on factors such as proximity to transport networks, distance weighted population density, forest fragmentation and presence of protected areas and logging concessions. These rules presently focus on the conversion of forest to agriculture and pasture use, but could be generalized to other land use change conversions. After introducing the model, an evaluation of its performance is shown for the land-cover changes that have occurred in the Central African Basin from 2001–2010 using retrievals from MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Vegetation Continuous Field data. The model is able to broadly reproduce the spatial patterns of forest cover change observed by MODIS, and the use of the local-scale risk factors enables FOREST-SAGE to improve land use change patterns considerably relative to benchmark scenarios used in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project integrations. The uncertainty to the various risk factors is investigated using an ensemble of investigations, and it is shown that the model is sensitive to the population density, forest fragmentation and reforestation factors specified. PMID:26394392

  17. A self-consistent turbulence generated scenario for L-H transition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Y.Z.; Mahajan, S.M.

    1992-10-01

    The turbulence-induced ion banana polarization current associated with steep ion temperature gradients is explored as a possible mechanism for generating poloidal momentum at the tokamak edge. In the light of a recently developed two-dimensional turbulence theory, one can obtain a simple closed expression relating this current (determined by turbulence levels) to the derivatives of the poloidal rotation speed. A self-consistent system, then, emerges, if we balance the turbulence-induced poloidal momentum with that dissipated by viscosity. Under suitable conditions this system may show a bifurcation controlled by a parameter dependent on temperature gradients. Both the bifurcation point, and the shear layer width are predicted for a prescribed flow in terms of a scale characterizing the nonlinearity of viscosity. The crucial relevance of the flow parity with the turbulence scenario is analyzed

  18. Calibration and validation of a phenomenological influent pollutant disturbance scenario generator using full-scale data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flores Alsina, Xavier; Saagi, Ramesh; Lindblom, Erik Ulfson

    2014-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the full-scale feasibility of the phenomenological dynamic influent pollutant disturbance scenario generator (DIPDSG) that was originally used to create the influent data of the International Water Association (IWA) Benchmark Simulation Model No. 2 (BSM...... rainfall patterns (climate change) or influent biodegradability (process uncertainty) on the generated time series; 2) a demonstration of how to reduce the cost/workload of measuring campaigns by filling the gaps due to missing data in the influent profiles; and, 3) a critical discussion of the presented...

  19. Development of integrated scenarios to attain the environmental aims of the national sustainability strategy; Entwicklung von integrierten Szenarien zur Erreichung der umweltbezogenen Ziele der Nationalen Nachhaltigkeitsstrategie

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fink, Alexander; Rammig, Hanna [ScMI AG Paderborn (Germany)

    2013-02-15

    The national sustainability strategy (NHS) shall significantly shape the direction of the sustainable development in Germany. It is aim of the project ''Development of integrated scenarios to attain the environmental aims of the national sustainability strategy'' to develop different options, of how to possibly approach the environmental aims of the national sustainability strategy. In a first step external scenarios were developed, which describe the national sustainability strategy. In a first step external scenarios were developed, which describe the external context for the embodiment of sustainability. In a second step, option scenarios which show alternatives for different actor groups were built for the three areas ''Leisure time, living and alimentation''. In a third step the combination of the different external scenarios and internal options has been conducted, how do the different solution areas fit to the external scenarios.

  20. Environmental implications of electricity generation in an integrated long-term planning framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turner, Graham M.; West, James

    2012-01-01

    Long-term, integrated modelling of electricity generation capacity and its operational requirements is important for coherent energy policy because of the multi-decadal lifespan of such plant, and because related fuel requirements, water consumption, and greenhouse gas emissions impact other sectors. This paper describes a physical model of electricity generation designed for long-term simulations, including the reproduction of decades of historical data, and its application to key policy questions. The simulation uses a dynamic, physical input–output model for the basic material and energy industries, embedded in an economy-wide stocks and flows framework (SFF). The historical reproduction, illustrated for the state of Victoria, is based on integrating bottom-up technical data on physical processes as inputs, and validating output against top-down aggregate data. We show that while greenhouse gas emissions would decrease significantly with the aggressive introduction of cleaner generation technology, long-term reductions are difficult to maintain against ongoing growth in consumption. Additionally, our sensitivity analysis identifies the importance of rapid action due to the age structure of operating power stations. We also identify significant imposts of alternative power generation on land and water resources, though a business-as-usual scenario would impose greater losses of water resources. - Highlights: ► System-wide dynamic analysis is needed to avoid unintended adverse environmental outcomes. ► Dynamics of long-lived plant is important in transitions for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. ► Large gains in GHG emissions efficiency of generation portfolios fail to maintain low emissions.

  1. Commercialization scenarios of polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cell applications for stationary power generation in the United States by the year 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millett, Stephen; Mahadevan, Kathya

    Battelle is identifying the most likely markets and economic impacts of stationary polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) fuel cells in the range of 1-250 kW in the U.S. by the year 2015. For this task, Battelle is using the Interactive Future Simulations (IFS™), an analytical modeling and forecasting tool that uses expert judgment, trend analysis, and cross-impact analysis methods to generate most likely future conditions for PEM fuel cell applications, market acceptance, commercial viability, and economic impacts. The cross-impact model contains 28 descriptors including commercial and technological advances in both polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) fuel cells and fossil fuel technologies, sources of hydrogen, investments, public policy, environmental regulation, value to consumers, commercialization leadership, modes of generation, and the reliability and prices of grid electricity. One likely scenario to the year 2015 is that the PEM fuel cells will be limited to commercial and industrial customers in the range of 50-200 kW with a market size less than US$ 5 billion a year.

  2. The importance of meteorology in the environmental impacts assessment of nuclear power plants: scenarios studies using geographic information system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leao, I.L.B.; Biagio, R.M.S.; Costa, E.M.; Alves, R.N.

    1999-01-01

    The Brazilian Nuclear Power Plant (CNAAA) is located in a very complex region of the state of Rio de Janeiro. The environmental impact caused by the normal operation of such installation can be better evaluated by using an integrated approach, in which a geographical information system plays a very important role. In this study, environmental scenarios are integrated with some extreme and representative meteorological situations. (author)

  3. Variability in environmental impacts of Brazilian soybean according to crop production and transport scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silva, Vamilson Prudêncio; van der Werf, Hayo M G; Spies, Airton; Soares, Sebastião Roberto

    2010-09-01

    Soybean production and its supply chain are highly dependent on inputs such as land, fertilizer, fuel, machines, pesticides and electricity. The expansion of this crop in Brazil in recent decades has generated concerns about its environmental impacts. To assess these impacts, two representative chains supplying soybeans to Europe were identified: Center West (CW) and Southern (SO) Brazil. Each supply chain was analyzed using Life Cycle Assessment methodology. We considered different levels of use of chemical and organic fertilizers, pesticides and machinery, different distances for transportation of inputs and different yield levels. Because transportation contributed strongly to environmental impacts, a detailed study was performed to identify the routes used to transport soybeans to seaports. Additionally, we considered different levels of land occupation and land transformation to represent the impact of deforestation in the CW region. Environmental impacts were calculated for 1000 kg of soybean up to and including the delivery to Europe at the seaport in Rotterdam, at 13% humidity. Overall results showed that the impacts are greater for CW than for SO for all impact categories studied, including acidification (7.7 and 5.3 kg SO(2) eq., respectively), climate change (959 and 510 kg CO(2) eq.), cumulative energy demand (12,634 and 6,999 MJ) and terrestrial ecotoxicity (4.9 and 3.1 kg 1,4-DCB eq.), except eutrophication and land occupation. The same trend was observed for the crop-production stage. Efforts to reduce chemical fertilizers and diesel consumption can reduce CO(2) emissions. Although deforestation for crop production has decreased in recent years, the contribution of deforestation to climate change and cumulative energy demand remains significant. In the CW scenario deforestation contributed 29% to climate change and 20% to cumulative energy demand. Results also showed that although there are different transportation options in Brazil, the current

  4. Environmental management in the National Power Corporation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petel, M.R.L.

    1996-01-01

    Environmental management in the National Power Corporation (NPC) is enshrined in the corporate charter. Environmental management practice can be traced back to the past purely hydroelectric power generation days, of the corporation. One good thing about nuclear power plant project of NPC, is that it required a formalization and documentation of environmental management, as part of the licensing procedure for the project. Thereafter, environmental management had been strengthened and institutionalized in the corporation. Succeeding years had also witnessed the escalation of the development and diversification of electricity generation sources, including the development of geothermal power, and to a small extent yet, renewable energy, such as wind power. The corporation has also intensified the installation of transmission lines of varying sizes in various locations and has gone, for now, for its internal needs, into telecommunications. With the anticipated further developments in the power sector, i.e., the ever increasing demand for power and the privitization of the power industry, new challenges loom in environmental management for the sector. The parallel developments in the environmental sciences and the collective experiences in power generation and environmental management, locally and abroad, will be very handy in meeting the challenges. The increasing stringency of environmental regulations and standards are also providing continuing challenges to all power utilities like NPC. Globally, the power scenario points towards challenging environmental management requirements, in view of the increasing complexity and gravity of environmental problems facing nations. NPC will still be a player in this scenario and therefore, will need to respond accordingly. (author)

  5. Dose estimation and evaluation of protector measures for a power plant's accidents scenario, using geographical information system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costa, E.M.; Biagio, R.M.S.; Alves, R.N.

    1999-01-01

    Since the initial phase of a project of a nuclear plant several environmental studies are carried out, and a considerable amount of relevant information is generated. Therefore, there is an increasing need of an integrated analysis of this information in order to better evaluate the potential impact associated to hypothetical accident scenarios of such plants. This paper presents a case-study, in which a hypothetical accident scenario is analysed taking into account the environmental and populational information of the Brazilian nuclear power plants region by using a geographical information system. Important areas for planning of protective measures are identified to provide a basis for further analysis. (author)

  6. Simulation and Evaluation of Pollution Load Reduction Scenarios for Water Environmental Management: A Case Study of Inflow River of Taihu Lake, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruibin Zhang

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In the beginning of the 21st century, the deterioration of water quality in Taihu Lake, China, has caused widespread concern. The primary source of pollution in Taihu Lake is river inflows. Effective pollution load reduction scenarios need to be implemented in these rivers in order to improve the water quality of Taihu Lake. It is important to select appropriate pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving particular goals. The aim of this study was to facilitate the selection of appropriate scenarios. The QUAL2K model for river water quality was used to simulate the effects of a range of pollution load reduction scenarios in the Wujin River, which is one of the major inflow rivers of Taihu Lake. The model was calibrated for the year 2010 and validated for the year 2011. Various pollution load reduction scenarios were assessed using an analytic hierarchy process, and increasing rates of evaluation indicators were predicted using the Delphi method. The results showed that control of pollution from the source is the optimal method for pollution prevention and control, and the method of “Treatment after Pollution” has bad environmental, social and ecological effects. The method applied in this study can assist for environmental managers to select suitable pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving various objectives.

  7. Climate change scenario data for the national parks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scott, D.

    2003-01-01

    This report presents daily scenario data obtained from monthly time scale climate change scenarios. The scenarios were applied to a stochastic weather generator, a statistical tool that simulates daily weather data for a range of climates at a particular location. The weather generators simulate weather that is statistically similar to observed climate data from climate stations. They can also generate daily scenario data for monthly time scales. This low cost computational method offers site-specific, multi-year climate change scenarios at a daily temporal level. The data is useful for situations that rely on climate thresholds such as forest fire season, drought conditions, or recreational season length. Data sets for temperature, precipitation and frost days was provided for 3 national parks for comparative evaluations. Daily scenarios for other parks can be derived using global climate model (GCM) output data through the Long Ashton Research Station (LARS) weather generator program. tabs

  8. Probabilistic power generation planning with environmental consideration for Lebanon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karaki, S.H.; Chaaban, F.B.; Tarhini, K.A.

    2000-01-01

    Full text.This paper describes a software tool for generation expansion planning based on dynamic programming, probabilistic production simulation, and environmental assessment. The aim is to determine the units needed to expand a given system in order to minimize either the cost or the environmental impact or some weighed function of the two. The problem of generation expansion planning is solved in stages using Tunnel Dynamic Programming (TDP) with Heuristic rules to limit the number of options analyzed. The production costing methodology is based on combining a probabilistic generation model known as the capacity outage table (COT) with the load duration curve (LDC) of the system to deduce a risk model from which the expected energy not supplied (EENS) is estimated. The generation model is built recursively using an efficient numerical convolution procedure and is combined at each step with the LDC to calculate the expected energy produced by each unit, its corresponding production cost and related environmental emissions. The estimation of the air effluents is conducted based on the fuel type, the heat rate and teh energy produced by each unit. The program can model hydro-electric units as well as energy limited units, under economical and environmental load dispatches. The work is concluded by case studies to illustrate the capabilities of the model and to examine the impact of various technical, economic and environmental parameters on the proposed plans

  9. The comparative study on the environmental impact for various energy generating systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jung, J. T.; Ha, J. J.; Jung, H. S.

    2002-01-01

    The concern about environmental problem due to electricity generation is increasing. And the current debate about the environmental and socioeconomic effects of energy use is now turning towards the internalization of externalities imposed on society and the environment that are not accounted by the producers and consumers of energy. The result of internalization of externalities are to be used in the decision making of selecting available options. Therefore, the environmental impact analysis for various energy generating systems were made by using Life Cycle Assessment(LCA). According to the results, the environmental burden due to nuclear power generating systems is low comparing with other energy generating systems due to low usage of resources. The results will be used in the comparative study on the environmental impacts for various energy generating systems

  10. Environmental dredging residual generation and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patmont, Clay; LaRosa, Paul; Narayanan, Raghav; Forrest, Casey

    2018-05-01

    The presence and magnitude of sediment contamination remaining in a completed dredge area can often dictate the success of an environmental dredging project. The need to better understand and manage this remaining contamination, referred to as "postdredging residuals," has increasingly been recognized by practitioners and investigators. Based on recent dredging projects with robust characterization programs, it is now understood that the residual contamination layer in the postdredging sediment comprises a mixture of contaminated sediments that originate from throughout the dredge cut. This mixture of contaminated sediments initially exhibits fluid mud properties that can contribute to sediment transport and contamination risk outside of the dredge area. This article reviews robust dredging residual evaluations recently performed in the United States and Canada, including the Hudson River, Lower Fox River, Ashtabula River, and Esquimalt Harbour, along with other projects. These data better inform the understanding of residuals generation, leading to improved models of dredging residual formation to inform remedy evaluation, selection, design, and implementation. Data from these projects confirm that the magnitude of dredging residuals is largely determined by site conditions, primarily in situ sediment fluidity or liquidity as measured by dry bulk density. While the generation of dredging residuals cannot be avoided, residuals can be successfully and efficiently managed through careful development and implementation of site-specific management plans. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;14:335-343. © 2018 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC). © 2018 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

  11. Inclusion of environmental costs on a long-term expansion model of hydrothermal generation systems; Insercao dos custos ambientais em um modelo de expansao da geracao a longo prazo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos Henrique Luz

    2008-02-15

    This dissertation presents the development of a mathematical model to be used in the hydrothermal generation expansion planning taking into account uncertainties, the guarantee of energy supply and issues related to the social and environmental problems caused by the power sector. Named 'MELP Ambiental', it is a version of MELP, a model developed by Machado Junior (2000). The environmental valuation was based on results of previous studies. The analysis of the environmental costs scenarios showed that the inclusion of a variable linked to externalities implies in changes on the investment schedule. These changes decrease the total cost (economic and environmental) related to long-term power supply expansion. (author)

  12. The definition and treatment of scenarios in a probabilistic systems assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andres, T.H.; Goodwin, B.W

    1998-03-01

    Concepts for the disposal of nuclear waste generally involve the use of multiple barriers, both man-made and natural, to isolate the waste from man's environment for very long periods of time. To assess the safety of these concepts, postclosure safety assessments are conducted to study the types, ranges and probabilities of potential impacts caused by wastes penetrating these barriers. Within the Canadian context, postclosure safety assessments must estimate radiological risk for comparison with regulatory criteria. The definition of radiological risk introduces a requirement to identify and then evaluate scenarios that describe quantitatively the possible behaviour of a disposal system and its surroundings for at least 10{sup 4} years. This report examines the connection between the identification and evaluation of scenarios. It shows how a large collection of factors can be combined to form simple scenarios, and how a large number of simple scenarios can be grouped into a manageably small number of compound scenarios. The compound scenarios, notably the 'central' scenario, can be evaluated using a probabilistic systems assessment code such as SYVAC3 (SYstems Variability Analysis Code, generation 3) to estimate the radiological risk and other environmental impacts. Examples are taken from a long-term performance assessment study to demonstrate a pragmatic application of the procedure. (author)

  13. The definition and treatment of scenarios in a probabilistic systems assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andres, T.H.; Goodwin, B.W.

    1998-03-01

    Concepts for the disposal of nuclear waste generally involve the use of multiple barriers, both man-made and natural, to isolate the waste from man's environment for very long periods of time. To assess the safety of these concepts, postclosure safety assessments are conducted to study the types, ranges and probabilities of potential impacts caused by wastes penetrating these barriers. Within the Canadian context, postclosure safety assessments must estimate radiological risk for comparison with regulatory criteria. The definition of radiological risk introduces a requirement to identify and then evaluate scenarios that describe quantitatively the possible behaviour of a disposal system and its surroundings for at least 10 4 years. This report examines the connection between the identification and evaluation of scenarios. It shows how a large collection of factors can be combined to form simple scenarios, and how a large number of simple scenarios can be grouped into a manageably small number of compound scenarios. The compound scenarios, notably the 'central' scenario, can be evaluated using a probabilistic systems assessment code such as SYVAC3 (SYstems Variability Analysis Code, generation 3) to estimate the radiological risk and other environmental impacts. Examples are taken from a long-term performance assessment study to demonstrate a pragmatic application of the procedure. (author)

  14. Radioactive waste assessment using 'minimum waste generation' scenario - summary report March 1984

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richardson, J.A.; Goodill, D.R.; Tymons, B.J.

    1984-11-01

    This report describes an assessment of radioactive waste management arisings from a defined nuclear power generation - Scheme 1. Scheme 1 assumes a minimum waste generation scenario with raw waste arisings from 3 main groups; (i) existing and committed commercial reactors; (ii) fuel reprocessing plants, (iii) research, industry and medicine. No decommissioning wastes are considered except for arisings from the final fuel cores from decommissioned reactors. The study uses the SIMULATION2 code which models waste material flows through the system. With a knowledge of the accumulations and average production rates of the raw wastes and their isotopic compositions (or total activities), the rates at which conditioned wastes become available for transportation and disposal are calculated, with specific activity levels. The data bases for the inventory calculations and the assumptions concerning future operation of nuclear facilities were those current in 1983. Both the inventory data and plans for the future of existing nuclear installations have been updated since these calculations were completed. Therefore the results from this assessment do not represent the most up-to-date information available. The report does, however, illustrate the methodology of assessment and indicates the type of information that can be generated. (author)

  15. Relationship between people's awareness of environmental capabilities of saving energy, photovoltaic power generation and nuclear power generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hashiba, Takashi

    2001-01-01

    In this research, relationship between people's awareness of environmental capabilities of saving energy, photovoltaic power generation (PV) and nuclear power generation was investigated using questionnaire method. The results showed that saving energy is conducted without reference to its environment preservation effect. However the older people tend to regard saving energy as contribution to environment preservation. The attitude toward usage of PV has a close relationship to awareness of energy environmental concerns. Acceptance of cost sharing for the introducing of wide-scale PV systems to society is related to environment protection image of PV and the attitude toward loss of social convenience lost as a result of saving energy activities. The older people become, the more priority people put on environment protection before the social convenience. There is little relationship between environmental capabilities of nuclear power generation, that never discharge CO 2 on generation, and awareness of energy environmental concerns. (author)

  16. 2016 Billion-Ton Report: Environmental Sustainability Effects of Select Scenarios from Volume 1 (Volume 2)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Efroymson, R. A. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Langholtz, M. H. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Johnson, K. E. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Stokes, B. J. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2017-01-13

    On behalf of all the authors and contributors, it is a great privilege to present the 2016 Billion-Ton Report (BT16), volume 2: Environmental Sustainability Effects of Select Scenarios from volume 1. This report represents the culmination of several years of collaborative effort among national laboratories, government agencies, academic institutions, and industry. BT16 was developed to support the U.S. Department of Energy’s efforts towards national goals of energy security and associated quality of life.

  17. Approaches for controlling air pollutants and their environmental impacts generated from coal-based electricity generation in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Changqing; Hong, Jinglan; Ren, Yixin; Wang, Qingsong; Yuan, Xueliang

    2015-08-01

    This study aims at qualifying air pollutants and environmental impacts generated from coal-based power plants and providing useful information for decision makers on the management of coal-based power plants in China. Results showed that approximately 9.03, 54.95, 62.08, and 12.12% of the national carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and particulate matter emissions, respectively, in 2011were generated from coal-based electricity generation. The air pollutants were mainly generated from east China because of the well-developed economy and energy-intensive industries in the region. Coal-washing technology can simply and significantly reduce the environmental burden because of the relativity low content of coal gangue and sulfur in washed coal. Optimizing the efficiency of raw materials and energy consumption is additional key factor to reduce the potential environmental impacts. In addition, improving the efficiency of air pollutants (e.g., dust, mercury, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides) control system and implementing the strict requirements on air pollutants for power plants are important ways for reducing the potential environmental impacts of coal-based electricity generation in China.

  18. The once-through mode of steam generator reflux condensation in loss of coolant accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liao, Y.; Guentay, S.; Suckow, D.

    2009-01-01

    The once-through mode of steam generator reflux condensation in the presence of noncondensable gases and/or aerosols for LOCA scenarios is introduced. This phenomenon is planned to be investigated at Paul Scherrer Institute in the ARTIST/RFLX experimental program. The plausible accident scenarios associated with the once-through reflux condensation are analyzed with MELCOR to study the safety significance and the boundary conditions of this phenomenon. This work presents the recent PSI experimental and analytical work on reflux condensation: the progress of modification to the ARTIST test facility for the purpose to study reflux condensation, and the analytical model for the once-through reflux condensation in the presence of noncondensable gas using the heat and mass transfer analogy approach. Future experimental and analytical work on reflux condensation is also outlined. (author)

  19. Can environmental conditions experienced in early life influence future generations?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burton, Tim; Metcalfe, Neil B

    2014-06-22

    The consequences of early developmental conditions for performance in later life are now subjected to convergent interest from many different biological sub-disciplines. However, striking data, largely from the biomedical literature, show that environmental effects experienced even before conception can be transmissible to subsequent generations. Here, we review the growing evidence from natural systems for these cross-generational effects of early life conditions, showing that they can be generated by diverse environmental stressors, affect offspring in many ways and can be transmitted directly or indirectly by both parental lines for several generations. In doing so, we emphasize why early life might be so sensitive to the transmission of environmentally induced effects across generations. We also summarize recent theoretical advancements within the field of developmental plasticity, and discuss how parents might assemble different 'internal' and 'external' cues, even from the earliest stages of life, to instruct their investment decisions in offspring. In doing so, we provide a preliminary framework within the context of adaptive plasticity for understanding inter-generational phenomena that arise from early life conditions.

  20. Random Scenario Generation for a Multiple Target Tracking Environment Evaluation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hussain, Dil Muhammad Akbar

    2006-01-01

    , which were normally crossing targets, was to test the efficiency of the track splitting algorithm for different situations. However this approach only gives a measure of performance for a specific, possibly unrealistic, scenario and it was felt appropriate to develop procedures that would enable a more...... general performance assessment. Therefore, a random target motion scenario is adopted. Its implementation in particular for testing the track splitting algorithm using Kalman filters is used and a couple of tracking performance parameters are computed to investigate such random scenarios....

  1. Energy scenarios for hydrogen production in Mexico

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ortega V, E.; Francois L, J. L.

    2009-10-01

    The hydrogen is a clean and very efficient fuel, its combustion does not produce gases of greenhouse effect, ozone precursors and residual acids. Also the hydrogen produced by friendly energy sources with the environment like nuclear energy could help to solve the global problems that it confronts the energy at present time. Presently work fuel cycles of hydrogen production technologies in Mexico are judged, by means of a structured methodology in the concept of sustainable development in its social, economic and environmental dimensions. The methodology is divided in three scenarios: base, Outlook 2030 and capture of CO 2 . The first scenario makes reference to cycles analysis in a current context for Mexico, the second taking in account the demand projections reported by the IAEA in its report Outlook and the third scenario, capture of CO 2 , the technologies are analyzed supposing a reduction in capture costs of 75%. Each scenario also has four cases (base, social, environmental and economic) by means of which the cycles are analyzed in the dimensions of sustainable development. For scenarios base and capture, results show that combination nuclear energy- reformed of gas it is the best alternative for cases base and economic. For social case, the evaluated better technology is the hydraulics, and for environmental case, the best option is represented by the regenerative thermochemistry cycles. The scenario Outlook 2030 show a favorable tendency of growth of renewable sources, being the aeolian energy the best technology evaluated in the cases base and environmental, the hydraulics technology in the social case and in the economic case the reformed of natural gas that uses nuclear heat. (Author)

  2. Use of two indicators for the socio-environmental risk analysis of Northern Mexico under three climate change scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Santos, Armando; Martínez-Santiago, Santos

    The aims of this study were to (1) find critical areas susceptible to the degradation of natural resources according to local erosion rates and aridity levels, which were used as environmental quality indicators, and (2) identify areas of risk associated with the presence of natural hazards according to three climate change scenarios defined for Mexico. The focus was the municipality of Lerdo, Durango (25.166° to 25.783° N and 103.333° to 103.983° W), which has dry temperate and very dry climates (BSohw and BWhw). From the Global Circulation Models, downscaling techniques for the dynamic modeling of environmental processes using climate data, historical information, and three regionalized climate change scenarios were applied to determine the impacts from laminar wind erosion rates (LWER) and aridity indices (AI). From the historic period to scenario A2 (ScA2, 2010-2039), regarding greenhouse gas emissions, the LWER was predicted to reach 147.2 t ha -1  year -1 , representing a 0.5 m thickness over nearly 30 years and a change in the AI from 9.3 to 8.7. This trend represents an increase in drought for 70.8 % of the study area and could affect 90 % of the agricultural activities and approximately 80 % of the population living in the southeastern Lerdense territory.

  3. Energy and environmental evaluation of tri-generation energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chicco, G.; Mancarella, P.

    2008-01-01

    Tri generation facilities manufactured with various technologies represent an important alternative solution for the development more efficient energy systems and low environmental impact. Are described the issues related to modelling and energy and environmental evaluation [it

  4. Trans?generational plasticity in response to immune challenge is constrained by heat stress

    OpenAIRE

    Roth, Olivia; Landis, Susanne H.

    2017-01-01

    Trans-generational plasticity is the adjustment of phenotypes to changing habitat conditions that persist longer than the individual lifetime. Fitness benefits (adaptive TGP) are expected upon matching parent-offspring environments. In a global change scenario, several performance-related environmental factors are changing simultaneously. This lowers the predictability of offspring environmental conditions, potentially hampering the benefits of trans-generational plasticity. For the first tim...

  5. Sustainable Supply Chain Management: The Influence of Disposal Scenarios on the Environmental Impact of a 2400 L Waste Container

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Eduardo Galve

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes the influence of the supply chain management on the environmental impact of a 2400 L waste disposal container used in most cities of Spain. The studied functional unit, a waste disposal container, made up mostly of plastic materials and a metallic structure, and manufactured in Madrid (Spain, is distributed to several cities at an average distance of 392 km. A life cycle assessment of four different scenarios (SC has been calculated with the software EcoTool v4.0 (version 4.0; i+: Zaragoza, Spain, 2015 and using Ecoinvent v3.0 database (version 3.0; Swiss Centre for Life Cycle Inventories: St. Gallen, Switzerland, 2013. The environmental impact has been characterized with two different methodologies, recipe and carbon footprint. In order to reduce the environmental impact, several end of life scenarios have been performed, analyzing the influence of the supply chain on a closed-looped system that increases recycling. Closed loop management of the waste and reuse of parts allows companies to stop selling products and start selling the service that their products give to the consumers.

  6. Comparison of future energy scenarios for Denmark: IDA 2050, CEESA (Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis), and Climate Commission 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kwon, Pil Seok; Østergaard, Poul Alberg

    2012-01-01

    Scenario-making is becoming an important tool in energy policy making and energy systems analyses. This article probes into the making of scenarios for Denmark by presenting a comparison of three future scenarios which narrate 100% renewable energy system for Denmark in 2050; IDA 2050, Climate Commission 2050, and CEESA (Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis). Generally, although with minor differences, the scenarios suggest the same technological solutions for the future such as expansion of biomass usage and wind power capacity, integration of transport sector into the other energy sectors. The methodologies used in two academic scenarios, IDA 2050 and CEESA, are compared. The main differences in the methodologies of IDA 2050 and CEESA are found in the estimation of future biomass potential, transport demand assessment, and a trial to examine future power grid in an electrical engineering perspective. The above-mentioned methodologies are compared in an evolutionary perspective to determine if the methodologies reflect the complex reality well. The results of the scenarios are also assessed within the framework of “radical technological change” in order to show which future scenario assumes more radical change within five dimensions of technology; technique, knowledge, organization, product, and profit. -- Highlights: ► Three future scenarios for Danish future in 2050 are compared. ► All of these scenarios suggest the same solutions for the future with minor differences. ► There are differences in methodologies for IDA 2050 and CEESA such as biomass, transport, and power grid. ► The contents of scenarios are assessed which scenario assume more radical technological change in the future.

  7. Hydrogen energy in changing environmental scenario: Indian context

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leo Hudson, M. Sterlin; Dubey, P.K.; Pukazhselvan, D.; Pandey, Sunil Kumar; Singh, Rajesh Kumar; Raghubanshi, Himanshu; Shahi, Rohit R.; Srivastava, O.N.

    2009-01-01

    This paper deals with how the Hydrogen Energy may play a crucial role in taking care of the environmental scenario/climate change. The R and D efforts, at the Hydrogen Energy Center, Banaras Hindu University have been described and discussed to elucidate that hydrogen is the best option for taking care of the environmental/climate changes. All three important ingredients for hydrogen economy, i.e., production, storage and application of hydrogen have been dealt with. As regards hydrogen production, solar routes consisting of photoelectrochemical electrolysis of water have been described and discussed. Nanostructured TiO 2 films used as photoanodes have been synthesized through hydrolysis of Ti[OCH(CH 3 ) 2 ] 4 . Modular designs of TiO 2 photoelectrode-based PEC cells have been fabricated to get high hydrogen production rate (∝10.35 lh -1 m -2 ). However, hydrogen storage is a key issue in the success and realization of hydrogen technology and economy. Metal hydrides are the promising candidates due to their safety advantage with high volume efficient storage capacity for on-board applications. As regards storage, we have discussed the storage of hydrogen in intermetallics as well as lightweight complex hydride systems. For intermetallic systems, we have dealt with material tailoring of LaNi 5 through Fe substitution. The La(Ni l-x Fe x ) 5 (x = 0.16) has been found to yield a high storage capacity of ∝2.40 wt%. We have also discussed how CNT admixing helps to improve the hydrogen desorption rate of NaAlH 4 . CNT (8 mol%) admixed NaAlH 4 is found to be optimum for faster desorption (∝3.3 wt% H 2 within 2 h). From an applications point of view, we have focused on the use of hydrogen (stored in intermetallic La-Ni-Fe system) as fuel for Internal Combustion (IC) engine-based vehicular transport, particularly two and three-wheelers. It is shown that hydrogen used as a fuel is the most effective alternative fuel for circumventing climate change. (author)

  8. Simulated Performance Evaluation of a Selective Tracker Through Random Scenario Generation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hussain, Dil Muhammad Akbar

    2006-01-01

    performance assessment. Therefore, a random target motion scenario is adopted. Its implementation in particular for testing the proposed selective track splitting algorithm using Kalman filters is investigated through a number of performance parameters which gives the activity profile of the tracking scenario......  The paper presents a simulation study on the performance of a target tracker using selective track splitting filter algorithm through a random scenario implemented on a digital signal processor.  In a typical track splitting filter all the observation which fall inside a likelihood ellipse...... are used for update, however, in our proposed selective track splitting filter less number of observations are used for track update.  Much of the previous performance work [1] has been done on specific (deterministic) scenarios. One of the reasons for considering the specific scenarios, which were...

  9. Dynamic influent pollutant disturbance scenario generation using a phenomenological modelling approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gernaey, Krist; Flores Alsina, Xavier; Rosen, Christian

    2011-01-01

    : the larger the simulated sewer network, the smoother the simulated diurnal flow rate and concentration variations. In the discussion, it is pointed out how the proposed phenomenological models can be expanded to other applications, for example to represent heavy metal or organic micro-pollutant loads......Activated Sludge Models are widely used for simulation-based evaluation of wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) performance. However, due to the high workload and cost of a measuring campaign on a full-scale WWTP, many simulation studies suffer from lack of sufficiently long influent flow rate...... and concentration time series representing realistic wastewater influent dynamics. In this paper, a simple phenomenological modelling approach is proposed as an alternative to generate dynamic influent pollutant disturbance scenarios. The presented set of models is constructed following the principles of parsimony...

  10. Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rosa, Isabel M.D.; Pereira, Henrique M.; Ferrier, Simon; Alkemade, Rob; Acosta, Lilibeth A.; Akcakaya, H. Resit; Den Belder, Eefje; Fazel, Asghar M.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harfoot, Mike; Harhash, Khaled A.; Harrison, Paula A.; Hauck, Jennifer; Hendriks, Rob J.J.; Hernández, Gladys; Jetz, Walter; Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, Sylvia I.; Kim, Hyejin; King, Nicholas; Kok, Marcel T.J.; Kolomytsev, Grygoriy O.; Lazarova, Tanya; Leadley, Paul; Lundquist, Carolyn J.; García Márquez, Jaime; Meyer, Carsten; Navarro, Laetitia M.; Nesshöver, Carsten; Ngo, Hien T.; Ninan, Karachepone N.; Palomo, Maria G.; Pereira, Laura M.; Peterson, Garry D.; Pichs, Ramon; Popp, Alexander; Purvis, Andy; Ravera, Federica; Rondinini, Carlo; Sathyapalan, Jyothis; Schipper, Aafke M.; Seppelt, Ralf; Settele, Josef; Sitas, Nadia; Van Vuuren, Detlef|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X

    2017-01-01

    Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales.

  11. Environmental and health effects of fossil fuel and nuclear power generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naqvi, S.J.; Black, D.B.; Phillips, C.R.

    1978-03-01

    The objective of this study was to identify and assess the present and future dimensions of environmental effects and impacts of various energy generation alternatives, and to place safety and environmental risks associated with the nuclear industry in Canada in perspective with the risks from other sources. It was found that nuclear power generation involves a comparable risk to that of conventional methods of thermoelectric power generation

  12. Environmental assessment of energy generation from agricultural and farm waste through anaerobic digestion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nayal, Figen Sisman; Mammadov, Aydin; Ciliz, Nilgun

    2016-12-15

    cycle stages of the proposed scenario, due to NO x being emitted from the gas engine during combustion. Overall, the total environmental impact of the option was determined to be ten times lower than that of a hard coal option and 50% lower than the gasification option, since the latter does not generate digestate that is able to replace mineral fertilizer, thus mitigating the environmental footprint. Finally, the sustainability of energy production from agricultural and farm waste, via AD, was further enhanced by eliminating it from conventional waste management system practiced in the region, i.e. landfilling. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Tsunami Generation and Propagation by 3D deformable Landslides and Application to Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    McFall, Brian C.; Fritz, Hermann M.

    2014-05-01

    Tsunamis generated by landslides and volcano flank collapse account for some of the most catastrophic natural disasters recorded and can be particularly devastative in the near field region due to locally high wave amplitudes and runup. The events of 1958 Lituya Bay, 1963 Vajont reservoir, 1980 Spirit Lake, 2002 Stromboli and 2010 Haiti demonstrate the danger of tsunamis generated by landslides or volcano flank collapses. Unfortunately critical field data from these events is lacking. Source and runup scenarios based on real world events are physically modeled using generalized Froude similarity in the three dimensional NEES tsunami wave basin at Oregon State University. A novel pneumatic landslide tsunami generator (LTG) was deployed to simulate landslides with varying geometry and kinematics. The bathymetric and topographic scenarios tested with the LTG are the basin-wide propagation and runup, fjord, curved headland fjord and a conical island setting representing a landslide off an island or a volcano flank collapse. The LTG consists of a sliding box filled with 1,350 kg of landslide material which is accelerated by means of four pneumatic pistons down a 2H:1V slope. The landslide is launched from the sliding box and continues to accelerate by gravitational forces up to velocities of 5 m/s. The landslide Froude number at impact with the water is in the range 1

  14. Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rosa, Isabel M.D.; Pereira, Henrique Miguel; Ferrier, Simon; Alkemade, J.R.M.; Acosta, Lilibeth A.; Resit Akcakaya, H.; Belder, den E.; Fazel, Asghar M.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harfoot, Mike; Harhash, Khaled A.; Harrison, Paula A.; Hauck, Jennifer; Hendriks, Rob J.J.; Hernández, Gladys; Jetz, Walter; Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S.I.S.E.; Kim, Hyejin; King, Nicholas; Kok, Marcel; Kolomytsev, Grygoriy O.; Lazarova, Tanya; Leadley, Paul; Lundquist, Carolyn J.; García Márquez, Jaime; Meyer, Carsten; Navarro, Laetitia M.; Nesshöver, Carsten; Ngo, Hien T.; Ninan, Karachepone N.; Palomo, Maria G.; Pereira, Laura; Peterson, G.D.; Pichs, Ramon; Popp, Alexander; Purvis, Andy; Ravera, Federica; Rondinini, Carlo; Sathyapalan, Jyothis; Schipper, Aafke; Seppelt, Ralf; Settele, Josef; Sitas, Nadia; Vuuren, van D.

    2017-01-01

    Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship
    with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales.

  15. THE IMPORTANCE OF THE SCENARIOS METHODOLOGY FOR FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS DURING TIMES OF CRISIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo Roberto Correa Leão

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Recently, the need to apply strategic planning methodologies in business has risen, since corporations are part of a globalized world in which technological change and economic dynamism are evolving at a faster pace. Thus, firms must perform not only efficiently but also effectively in adapting to changes as they occur in the political, economic, technological, legal and environmental dimensions. This dictates the need for new strategic organizational positioning. The potential usefulness of the scenarios methodology was investigated for a sample of financial institutions with assets in the Brazilian market, based on management reports and in accordance with strategic dimensions needed to cope with crises. Therefore, we propose a new methodology for the qualitative analysis of official management reports, which indicates a perception of scenario building within organizations. The results suggest a positive relationship between the quality of the process of generating scenarios and the financial results of the banking institution. Key-words: Scenarios. Financial institutions. Crisis. 

  16. Four Scenarios for Europe. Based on UNEP's third Global Environment Outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bakkes, J.; Gaponenko, N.; Mnatsakanian, R.

    2003-01-01

    The third Global Environment Outlook (GEO-3) was published on the eve of the Johannesburg summit (autumn 2002). GEO-3 looked back thirty years and forward thirty years. A set of what-if scenarios was used to explore the ways our society can advance, including implications for environmental and social goals. Characteristically, GEO-3 examines in a relatively deep fashion how its global scenarios can be interpreted in the context of each of the world's regions. This brochure presents the pan-European elaboration of the four GEO-3 scenarios. It focusses on the scenarios proper and their impacts in environmental terms. The scenarios are: The Markets First scenario envisages a world in which market-driven developments converge on the currently prevailing values and expectations in industrialized countries; In a Policy First world, strong actions are undertaken by governments in an attempt to achieve specific social and environmental goals; The Security First scenario assumes a world full of large disparities, where inequality and conflict, brought about by socio-economic and environmental stresses, prevail: and Sustainability First pictures a world in which a new development paradigm emerges in response to the challenge of sustainability supported by new, more equitable values and institutions. The second section describes 'the pan-European tale of the four futures' in a predominantly qualitative manner. Section 3 presents a regionally differentiated examination of the environmental implications of the scenarios. Details on input material, assumptions and methodologies applied, and actual results, can be found in Chapter 4 of GEO-3 'Outlook 2002-32' and in the Technical Background Report on GEO-3 Scenario Work

  17. Hazards study of environmental protection classified facilities. Scenarios analysis; Etude de dangers des ICPE. Analyse des scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seveque, J.L. [Cour d' Appel d' Amiens, 80 (France)

    2006-04-15

    This article describes the analysis and study of the possible impacts of accidents occurring at industrial facilities classified with respect to the environment protection. The operators of such facilities have to describe the possible risks and their consequences, the measures taken to prevent them and the level of residual risk. Therefore, it consists in calculating the consequences of all possible aggressions that a facility can undergo. The receptors are of 2 type: the human body (burns, asphyxia, intoxication, shock wave, projectile), and the surrounding equipments (fire, unconfined vapour cloud explosion (UVCE), boiling liquid expanding vapour explosion (BLEVE), fireball, dispersion of toxic gases). Content: 1 - fire-type scenario: description, modeling of thermal effects, conclusion; 2 - UVCE-type scenario: description, Lannoy method (TNT equivalent), multi-energy method, conclusion; 3 - BLEVE-type scenario: description, modeling of overpressure effects, thermal effects of the fireball; 4 - toxic cloud scenario: modeling of a toxic cloud dispersion, effects and consequences; 5 - conclusions. (J.S.)

  18. Thermodynamics and process analysis for future economic scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ayres, R.U.

    1995-01-01

    Economists are increasingly interested in forecasting future costs and benefits of policies for dealing with materials/energy fluxes, polluting emissions and environmental impacts on various scales, from sectoral to global. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are currently popular because they project demand and industrial structure into the future, along an equilibrium path. But they are applicable only to the extent that structural changes occur in or near equilibrium, independent of radical technological (or social) change. The alternative tool for analyzing economic implications of scenario assumptions is to use Leontief-type Input-Output (I-O) models. I-O models are unable to endogenize structural shifts (changing I-O coefficients). However, this can be a virtue when considering radical rather than incremental shifts. Postulated I-O tables can be used independently to check the internal consistency of scenarios. Or I-O models can be used to generate scenarios by linking them to econometric 'macro-drivers' (which can, in principle, be CGE models). Explicit process analysis can be integrated, in principle, with I-O models. This hybrid scheme provides a natural means of satisfying physical constraints, especially the first and second laws of thermodynamics. This is important, to avoid constructing scenarios based on physically impossible processes. Process analysis is really the only available tool for constructing physically plausible alternative future I-O tables, and generating materials/energy and waste emissions coefficients. Explicit process analysis also helps avoid several problems characteristic of 'pure' CGE or I-O models, viz. (1) aggregation errors (2) inability to handle arbitrary combinations of co-product and co-input relationships and (3) inability to reflect certain non-linearities such as internal feedback loops. 4 figs., 2 tabs., 38 refs

  19. The economic valuation on atmospheric improvement benefit by nuclear power generation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kwak, S. J.; Yoo, S. H.; Han, S. Y.; Do, G. W.; Lee, J. S. [Korea Univ., Seoul (Korea)

    2000-12-01

    The major contents are as follows : To begin with, major air pollutants' emissions and emission reduction facilities in industrial sectors including a power generation were investigated and the future prospect was suggested. Environmental effects by attributes of air pollutions were summarized through a extensive literature survey. And the concept of benefit-cost based upon social costs and economic values of generation was established to estimate atmospheric improvement benefits by using a nuclear power. As a result of investigating many valuation methodologies that can estimate economic values of environmental improvement, we adopted MAUA(multi-attribute utility assessment) as a research method and estimated environmental costs by air pollutant and by power generating source. Also, we presented foreign case studies related to social costs in power generating sector and horizontally compared study's results home and abroad. Then, we set up four scenarios based on total generation that the 5th long-term power resources planning forecasted and calculated economic values of atmospheric improvement benefits among scenarios. Further, we suggested the results incorporating uncertainty of estimation parameters. Finally, we suggested a rational ground to move toward environment-friendly energy consumption and proposed a plan for the national energy policy against the green age in the 21th century. 147 refs., 45 figs., 103 tabs. (Author)

  20. The economic valuation on atmospheric improvement benefit by nuclear power generation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kwak, S J; Yoo, S H; Han, S Y; Do, G W; Lee, J S [Korea Univ., Seoul (Korea)

    2000-12-01

    The major contents are as follows : To begin with, major air pollutants' emissions and emission reduction facilities in industrial sectors including a power generation were investigated and the future prospect was suggested. Environmental effects by attributes of air pollutions were summarized through a extensive literature survey. And the concept of benefit-cost based upon social costs and economic values of generation was established to estimate atmospheric improvement benefits by using a nuclear power. As a result of investigating many valuation methodologies that can estimate economic values of environmental improvement, we adopted MAUA(multi-attribute utility assessment) as a research method and estimated environmental costs by air pollutant and by power generating source. Also, we presented foreign case studies related to social costs in power generating sector and horizontally compared study's results home and abroad. Then, we set up four scenarios based on total generation that the 5th long-term power resources planning forecasted and calculated economic values of atmospheric improvement benefits among scenarios. Further, we suggested the results incorporating uncertainty of estimation parameters. Finally, we suggested a rational ground to move toward environment-friendly energy consumption and proposed a plan for the national energy policy against the green age in the 21th century. 147 refs., 45 figs., 103 tabs. (Author)

  1. A life-cycle based decision-making framework for electricity generation system planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Norrie, S.J.; Fang, L. [Ryerson Polytechnic Univ., Toronto, ON (Canada). Environmental Applied Science and Management Graduate Program

    2006-07-01

    This paper proposed a framework for the consideration of multiple objectives in the long-term planning of electricity generation systems. The framework was comprised of 3 components: (1) information based on life-cycle inventories of electricity generation technologies; (2) a set of alternative scenarios to be evaluated and ranked using the framework; and (3) stakeholder values for decision objectives. Scenarios were developed to represent a set of future conditions, and values were derived through the use of questionnaires. Planning for electricity generation in Ontario was selected as a test case for the DM framework. Three scenarios were presented: (1) a business as usual scenario characterized by large, central power plants; (2) a mix of central power plants, distributed generation, and advanced conventional fuel technologies; and (3) small-scale distributed and renewable energy sources and aggressive demand-side management. The life-cycle based information from the scenario evaluation was used to estimate the performance of each scenario on the established decision criteria. Results showed that scenario 3 was the closest to achieving the fundamental objectives according to the decision criteria. It was concluded that the DM framework showed that the use of holistic environmental information and preferential information for multiple objectives can be integrated into a framework that openly and consistently evaluates a set of alternative scenarios. 31 refs., 7 tabs., 4 figs.

  2. Spatially and Temporally Resolved Analysis of Environmental Trade-Offs in Electricity Generation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peer, Rebecca A M; Garrison, Jared B; Timms, Craig P; Sanders, Kelly T

    2016-04-19

    The US power sector is a leading contributor of emissions that affect air quality and climate. It also requires a lot of water for cooling thermoelectric power plants. Although these impacts affect ecosystems and human health unevenly in space and time, there has been very little quantification of these environmental trade-offs on decision-relevant scales. This work quantifies hourly water consumption, emissions (i.e., carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and sulfur oxides), and marginal heat rates for 252 electricity generating units (EGUs) in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) region in 2011 using a unit commitment and dispatch model (UC&D). Annual, seasonal, and daily variations, as well as spatial variability are assessed. When normalized over the grid, hourly average emissions and water consumption intensities (i.e., output per MWh) are found to be highest when electricity demand is the lowest, as baseload EGUs tend to be the most water and emissions intensive. Results suggest that a large fraction of emissions and water consumption are caused by a small number of power plants, mainly baseload coal-fired generators. Replacing 8-10 existing power plants with modern natural gas combined cycle units would result in reductions of 19-29%, 51-55%, 60-62%, and 13-27% in CO2 emissions, NOx emissions, SOx emissions, and water consumption, respectively, across the ERCOT region for two different conversion scenarios.

  3. Environmental implications of large-scale adoption of wind power: a scenario-based life cycle assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arvesen, Anders; Hertwich, Edgar G

    2011-01-01

    We investigate the potential environmental impacts of a large-scale adoption of wind power to meet up to 22% of the world’s growing electricity demand. The analysis builds on life cycle assessments of generic onshore and offshore wind farms, meant to represent average conditions for global deployment of wind power. We scale unit-based findings to estimate aggregated emissions of building, operating and decommissioning wind farms toward 2050, taking into account changes in the electricity mix in manufacturing. The energy scenarios investigated are the International Energy Agency’s BLUE scenarios. We estimate 1.7–2.6 Gt CO 2 -eq climate change, 2.1–3.2 Mt N-eq marine eutrophication, 9.2–14 Mt NMVOC photochemical oxidant formation, and 9.5–15 Mt SO 2 -eq terrestrial acidification impact category indicators due to global wind power in 2007–50. Assuming lifetimes 5 yr longer than reference, the total climate change indicator values are reduced by 8%. In the BLUE Map scenario, construction of new capacity contributes 64%, and repowering of existing capacity 38%, to total cumulative greenhouse gas emissions. The total emissions of wind electricity range between 4% and 14% of the direct emissions of the replaced fossil-fueled power plants. For all impact categories, the indirect emissions of displaced fossil power are larger than the total emissions caused by wind power.

  4. An environmental LCA of alternative scenarios of urban sewage sludge treatment and disposal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tarantini Mario

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The majority of pollutants that affect wastewater are concentrated by treatment processes in sludge; it is therefore critical to have a suitable evaluation methodology of sludge management options to analyze if pollution is redirected from water to other media, such as air and soil. Life cycle assessment is one of the most widely known and internationally accepted methodologies to compare environmental impacts of processes and systems and to evaluate their sustainability in the entire life cycle. In this study the methodology was applied to assess and compare three scenarios of urban sewage sludge treatment and disposal: sludge anaerobic digestion followed by dedicated incineration, sludge incineration without previous digestion, and sludge anaerobic digestion followed by composting. The potential benefits of spreading the compost to soil were not included in the system boundaries even if, due to its nutrients contents and soil improving features, compost could partially replace the use of commercial products. The study was aimed at finding out the environmental critical points of the treatment alternatives selected and at providing a technical and scientific contribution for further debates with national and local authorities on the environmental optimization of sewage sludge management. Life cycle assessment results confirmed the major contribution of electricity and methane consumption on several environmental impact categories. Incineration contributes more than sludge composting to almost all categories, although the heavy metals content of urban wastewater sludge raises substantial concerns when composted sludge is spread to soil. In this paper the models adopted, the hypotheses assumed and the main findings of the study are presented and discussed. .

  5. Projections of NH3 emissions from manure generated by livestock production in China to 2030 under six mitigation scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Peng; Koloutsou-Vakakis, Sotiria; Rood, Mark J; Luan, Shengji

    2017-12-31

    China's rapid urbanization, large population, and increasing consumption of calorie-and meat-intensive diets, have resulted in China becoming the world's largest source of ammonia (NH 3 ) emissions from livestock production. This is the first study to use provincial, condition-specific emission factors based on most recently available studies on Chinese manure management and environmental conditions. The estimated NH 3 emission temporal trends and spatial patterns are interpreted in relation to government policies affecting livestock production. Scenario analysis is used to project emissions and estimate mitigation potential of NH 3 emissions, to year 2030. We produce a 1km×1km gridded NH 3 emission inventory for 2008 based on county-level activity data, which can help identify locations of highest NH 3 emissions. The total NH 3 emissions from manure generated by livestock production in 2008 were 7.3TgNH 3 ·yr -1 (interquartile range from 6.1 to 8.6TgNH 3 ·yr -1 ), and the major sources were poultry (29.9%), pigs (28.4%), other cattle (27.9%), and dairy cattle (7.0%), while sheep and goats (3.6%), donkeys (1.3%), horses (1.2%), and mules (0.7%) had smaller contributions. From 1978 to 2008, annual NH 3 emissions fluctuated with two peaks (1996 and 2006), and total emissions increased from 2.2 to 7.3Tg·yr -1 increasing on average 4.4%·yr -1 . Under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, NH 3 emissions in 2030 are expected to be 13.9TgNH 3 ·yr -1 (11.5-16.3TgNH 3 ·yr -1 ). Under mitigation scenarios, the projected emissions could be reduced by 18.9-37.3% compared to 2030 BAU emissions. This study improves our understanding of NH 3 emissions from livestock production, which is needed to guide stakeholders and policymakers to make well informed mitigation decisions for NH 3 emissions from livestock production at the country and regional levels. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Application of the RESRAD computer code to VAMP scenario S

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gnanapragasam, E.K.; Yu, C.

    1997-03-01

    The RESRAD computer code developed at Argonne National Laboratory was among 11 models from 11 countries participating in the international Scenario S validation of radiological assessment models with Chernobyl fallout data from southern Finland. The validation test was conducted by the Multiple Pathways Assessment Working Group of the Validation of Environmental Model Predictions (VAMP) program coordinated by the International Atomic Energy Agency. RESRAD was enhanced to provide an output of contaminant concentrations in environmental media and in food products to compare with measured data from southern Finland. Probability distributions for inputs that were judged to be most uncertain were obtained from the literature and from information provided in the scenario description prepared by the Finnish Centre for Radiation and Nuclear Safety. The deterministic version of RESRAD was run repeatedly to generate probability distributions for the required predictions. These predictions were used later to verify the probabilistic RESRAD code. The RESRAD predictions of radionuclide concentrations are compared with measured concentrations in selected food products. The radiological doses predicted by RESRAD are also compared with those estimated by the Finnish Centre for Radiation and Nuclear Safety

  7. Application of portfolio analysis to the Dutch generating mix. Reference case and two renewables cases, year 2030, SE and GE scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jansen, J.C.; Beurskens, L.W.M.; Van Tilburg, X.

    2006-02-01

    This report presents results of an application of Markowitz Portfolio Theory (MPT) to the future portfolio of electricity generating technologies in the Netherlands in year 2030. Projections are made based on two specific scenarios constructed by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB), i.e. 'Strong Europe (SE)' and 'Global Economy (GE)'. This study zooms in on the electricity cost risk dimension of the Dutch portfolio of generating technologies. Major results of this study are: (a) In both scenarios, the base variant is not very efficient. Graphical analysis suggests that diversification may yield up to 20% risk reduction at no extra cost; (b) Promotion of renewable energy can greatly decrease the portfolio risk. Defining mixes without renewables results in significantly riskier mixes with relatively small impact on portfolio costs; (c) Because of its relative low risk and high potential, large-scale implementation of offshore wind can reduce cost risk of the Dutch generating portfolio while only in the GE scenario a (small) upward effect on the projected Dutch electricity cost in year 2030 is foreseen. In a SE world large-scale implementation of offshore wind is projected to have a downward effect on Dutch electricity prices by the year 2030

  8. The Social Cost Of Electricity. Scenarios and Policy Implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Markandya, A.; Bigano, A.; Porchia, R.

    2010-01-01

    This book reports and rationalizes the state-of-the-art concerning the social costs of electricity generation. Social costs are assessed by adding to the private generation costs, the external costs associated with damages to human health, the environment, crops, materials, and those related to the consequences of climate change. The authors consider the evolution of these costs up to 2030 for major electricity generating technologies and, using these estimates, evaluate policy options for external cost internalization, providing quantitative scenarios by country and primary fuel for 2010, 2020 and 2030. While mainly focusing on European countries, the book also examines the situation in key emerging economies such as China, India, Brazil and Turkey. With an analysis of the policies for external costs internalization, this book will appeal to energy policymakers, research institutions focusing on energy, environmental and energy NGOs and trade associations, as well as energy companies.

  9. Use of a scenario-development procedure to identify potentially disruptive scenarios, Greater Confinement Disposal facility, Area 5, Nevada Test Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guzowski, R.V.; Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM

    1994-01-01

    The Greater Confinement Disposal (GCD) facility includes four boreholes that contain transuranic (TRLT) waste. Presence of the TRU waste means that this facility must comply with the US Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Radiation Protection Standards for Management and Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel, High-Level and Transuranic Waste-Final Rule 40 CFR Part 191. To comply with the Containment Requirements of this rule, all potentially disruptive events and processes, and by implication all potentially disruptive combinations of events and processes (scenarios), must be identified for possible inclusion in performance assessments. Screening of the FEPs identified four events for scenario development: exploratory drilling for natural resources, drilling withdrawal wells, irrigation, and subsidence. Recent environmental-isotope analyses of the vadose zone suggest that radionuclide transport from the boreholes to the water table by infiltration is not a feasible transport mechanism within the time frame of regulatory concern. For this reason, the event of drilling withdrawal wells was merged with exploratory drilling for resources. The descriptions of the remaining three events were modified slightly to aid in estimation of event probabilities and consequence analyses. The three events are: exploratory drilling for resources penetrates a TRU borehole, irrigation occurs at the Radioactive Waste Management Site (RWMS), and subsidence occurs at the RWMS. Use of a logic diagram with these three events resulted in the construction of eight scenarios, including base-case (undisturbed) conditions. Screening these scenarios at this stage of scenario development was beyond the scope of this task. Based on the implementation assumptions, this scenario-development procedure produced a comprehensive set of mutually exclusive scenarios that are reproducible and auditable for use in GCD performance assessments

  10. Scenario development for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant compliance certification application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    GALSON, D.A.; SWIFT, PETER N.; ANDERSON, D. RICHARD; BENNETT, D.G.

    1998-01-01

    Demonstrating compliance with the applicable regulations for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) requires an assessment of the long-term performance of the disposal system. Scenario development is one starting point of this assessment, and generates inquiry about the present state and future evolution of the disposal system. Scenario development consists of four tasks: (1) identifying and classifying features, events and processes (FEPs), (2) screening FEPs according to well-defined criteria, (3) forming scenarios (combinations of FEPs) in the context of regulatory performance criteria and (4) specifying of scenarios for consequence analysis. The development and screening of a comprehensive FEP list provides assurance that the identification of significant processes and events is complete, that potential interactions between FEPs are not overlooked, and that responses to possible questions are available and well documented. Two basic scenarios have been identified for the WIPP: undisturbed performance (UP) and disturbed performance (DP). The UP scenario is used to evaluate compliance with the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) Individual Dose (40 CFR Section 191-15) and Groundwater Protection (40 CFR Section 191-24) standards and accounts for all natural-, waste- and repository-induced FEPs that survive the screening process. The DP scenario is required for assessment calculations for the EPA's cumulative release standard (Containment Requirements, 40 CFR Section 191-13) and accounts for disruptive future human events, which have an uncertain probability of occurrence, in addition to the UP FEPs

  11. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, K.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Borrero, J.; Bwarie, J.; Dykstra, D.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, Carl E.; Perry, S.; Plumlee, G.; Real, C.; Ritchie, L.; Scawthorn, C.; Thio, H.K.; Wein, Anne; Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R.; Wood, Nathan J.; Ostbo, Bruce I.; Oates, Don

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

  12. Comparison of future energy scenarios for Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kwon, Pil Seok; Østergaard, Poul Alberg

    2012-01-01

    Scenario-making is becoming an important tool in energy policy making and energy systems analyses. This article probes into the making of scenarios for Denmark by presenting a comparison of three future scenarios which narrate 100% renewable energy system for Denmark in 2050; IDA 2050, Climate...... Commission 2050, and CEESA (Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis). Generally, although with minor differences, the scenarios suggest the same technological solutions for the future such as expansion of biomass usage and wind power capacity, integration of transport sector into the other energy...

  13. Environmental Stewardship at the Savannah River Site: Generations of Success - 13212

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Looney, Brian B.; Bergren, Christopher L.; Gaughan, Thomas F.; Aylward, Robert S.; Guevara, Karen C.; Whitaker, Wade C.; Hennessey, Brian T.; Mills, Gary L.; Blake, John I. [Savannah River Site, Aiken SC 29808, 773-42A (United States)

    2013-07-01

    Approximately sixty years ago, the Savannah River Site (SRS) was built to produce nuclear materials. SRS production operations impacted air, soil, groundwater, ecology, and the local environment. Throughout its history, SRS has addressed these contamination issues directly and has maintained a commitment to environmental stewardship. The Site boasts many environmental firsts. Notably, SRS was the first major Department of Energy (DOE) facility to perform a baseline ecological assessment. This pioneering effort, by Ruth Patrick and the Philadelphia Academy of Sciences, was performed during SRS planning and construction in the early 1950's. This unique early generation of work set the stage for subsequent efforts. Since that time, the scientists and engineers at SRS pro-actively identified environmental problems and developed and implemented effective and efficient environmental management and remediation solutions. This second generation, spanning the 1980's through the 2000's, is exemplified by numerous large and small cleanup actions to address metals and radionuclides, solvents and hydrocarbons, facility and area decommissioning, and ecological restoration. Recently, a third generation of environmental management was initiated as part of Enterprise SRS. This initiative to 'Develop and Deploy Next Generation Cleanup Technologies' formalizes and organizes the major technology matching, development, and implementation processes associated with historical SRS cleanup success as a resource to support future environmental management missions throughout DOE. The four elements of the current, third generation, effort relate to: 1) transition from active to passive cleanup, 2) in situ decommissioning of large nuclear facilities, 3) new long term monitoring paradigms, and 4) a major case study related to support for recovery and restoration of the Japanese Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear power plant and surrounding environment. (authors)

  14. Postprocessing of Accidental Scenarios by Semi-Supervised Self-Organizing Maps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesco Di Maio

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Integrated Deterministic and Probabilistic Safety Analysis (IDPSA of dynamic systems calls for the development of efficient methods for accidental scenarios generation. The necessary consideration of failure events timing and sequencing along the scenarios requires the number of scenarios to be generated to increase with respect to conventional PSA. Consequently, their postprocessing for retrieving safety relevant information regarding the system behavior is challenged because of the large amount of generated scenarios that makes the computational cost for scenario postprocessing enormous and the retrieved information difficult to interpret. In the context of IDPSA, the interpretation consists in the classification of the generated scenarios as safe, failed, Near Misses (NMs, and Prime Implicants (PIs. To address this issue, in this paper we propose the use of an ensemble of Semi-Supervised Self-Organizing Maps (SSSOMs whose outcomes are combined by a locally weighted aggregation according to two strategies: a locally weighted aggregation and a decision tree based aggregation. In the former, we resort to the Local Fusion (LF principle for accounting the classification reliability of the different SSSOM classifiers, whereas in the latter we build a classification scheme to select the appropriate classifier (or ensemble of classifiers, for the type of scenario to be classified. The two strategies are applied for the postprocessing of the accidental scenarios of a dynamic U-Tube Steam Generator (UTSG.

  15. Environmental organizations say no to peat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1999-01-01

    A group of environmental protection oriented organizations published in June 10th 1999 in Helsinki a target program for energy solutions in Finland. According to the scenarios, published in 'The Recurrent Energy Policy' (Uusiutuva energiapolitiikka) publication, it would be possible to reduce the CO 2 emissions in Finland by 40 % by the year 2030 by increasing the use of renewable energy sources, and by intensifying the use of energy. The use of peat as energy source is denied in the scenarios. According to the energy scenarios of the environmental organizations the construction of new peat condensing power plants would be denied by political decision and no such plant would be allowed to be constructed after the year 2001. The generation of condensing power by peat would be finished in 2010 as the plants become out of operation. The use of peat as a fuel in back-pressure power generation and in heating plant would diminish gradually, and it would finish totally in 2025-2030. This means that the life-cycle of fuel peat in Finland would remain to 60 years. The adequacy of industrially usable peat reserves has been estimated to be 350 - 500 years. The publication defines the power or heat generated by e.g. wood, energy-willow, biogas and peat as bioenergy, but on the other hand in the program the peat is considered to be fossil fuel, and in the table presenting the carbon dioxide emissions, the emissions of peat have been presented, as characteristic in these connections, as maximum values. The scenario study suggests the heavy increase of the use of wood, natural gas, wind power, solar energy and ground heating. The energy conservation has also high priority, as well as the increasing of the industrial back-pressure power generation based on wood fuels. According to the environmental organizations the power production based on nuclear power, coal, peat and oil, as well as the import of electric power, should be stopped in Finland. New hydroelectric power would not

  16. Environmental dispatch: Minimum cost generation planning for acid rain compliance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qadri, S.S.; Weinstein, R.E.

    1991-01-01

    Passage of Public Law 101-549, the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments, requires reductions in SO 2 and NO x emissions from many power generation stations by 1995, and by an electric utility company's entire generation system by year 2000. Another option to reduce the total environmental emissions is to dispatch generating units with lower emission rates prior to dispatching units with high emission rates. This option may not lower the emission levels to the desired limits, but can reduce emissions. This is practical as long as the added operating cost is modest compared to the cost of alternatives to meet the same levels of emission reduction. This cost can be optimized to provide the best compromise between reduced emissions and operating cost increase. An environmental dispatch algorithm developed by Gilbert/Commonwealth for its eVOLVE-p trademark production costing program makes this optimization possible. The algorithm modifies the traditional economic dispatch order of utility generation to include the impact of the Clean Air Act Amendments. The dispatch order is based on emissions in excess of Clean Air Act compliance limits. A cost is assigned to the excess emissions, and these costs are distributed to the individual generating units in proportion to their emission rates. This paper discusses how this environmental dispatch algorithm is applied for utility generation compliance planning

  17. Addressing Palm Biodiesel as Renewable Fuel for the Indonesian Power Generation Sector: Java-Madura-Bali System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natarianto Indrawan

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Energy security defined as how to equitably provide available, affordable, reliable efficient, environmentally friendly, proactively governed and socially acceptable energy services to end user. It has in recent years taken attention of policymakers in different parts of the world. Formulating policy to improve energy security is mandatory, not only because of depleting fossil resource, but also implementing diversity of energy source since utilization abundant renewable energy resources can increase the security of energy supply. One of the abundant renewable energy resources in Indonesia is palm oil. This study analyses the utilization of palm biodiesel for Indonesian power generation sector in the Java-Madura-Bali (JAMALI system. Two scenarios were created by projecting the demand and environmental impact as well as GHG emissions reduction over the next 25 years. The first scenario subjects on current energy policy, while the second scenario is to substitute of fossil fuel which is still used in the JAMALI power generation system. Effect of palm biodiesel on emission of Carbon Dioxide, Carbon Monoxide, Sulfur Dioxide, Nitrogen Oxides, Particulate Matter, and Volatile Organic Compounds were estimated for each scenario. An externality analysis to complete the environmental analysis was conducted and resource analysis of palm oil plantation based biodiesel was also estimated. Finally, the economics feasibility of palm biodiesel in the power generation sector was analyzed.

  18. Participatory Scenario Development to Address Potential Impacts of Land Use Change: An Example from the Italian Alps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Žiga Malek

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Changes to land use such as the removal of natural vegetation and expansion of urban areas can result in degradation of the landscape and an increase in hydro-meteorological risk. This has led to higher interest by decision-makers and scientists in the future consequences of these drivers. Scenario development can be a useful tool for addressing the high uncertainty regarding modeling future land use changes. Scenarios are not exact forecasts, but images of plausible futures. When studying future land dynamics, emphasis should be given to areas experiencing high rates of socioeconomic change. We have focused on the eastern Italian Alps, which face increasing pressure from tourism development. Identified drivers of local land use change are mostly external and difficult to quantify. This area, characterized by a traditional Alpine landscape, is subject to high levels of hydro-meteorological risk, another reason to study potential future land use changes. We tested a scenario generation method based on existing decisions and assumptions about future tourism development. We aimed to develop a framework leading to plausible scenarios that can overcome data inaccessibility and address external drivers. We combined qualitative methods, such as stakeholder interviews and cognitive mapping, with geospatial methods, such as geographic information systems, geostatistics, and environmental modeling. We involved stakeholders from the beginning to support the steps of generating data, understanding the system of land use change, and developing a land use change model for scenario development. In this way, we generated spatio-temporal scenarios that can assist future spatial planning and improve preparedness for possible undesirable development.

  19. Second generation CO2 FEP analysis: Cassifcarbon sequestration scenario identification framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yavuz, F.T.; Tilburg, T. van; Pagnier, H.

    2008-01-01

    A novel scenario analysis framework has been created, called Carbon Sequestration Scenario Identification Framework (CASSIF). This framework addresses containment performance defined by the three major categories: well, fault and seal integrity. The relevant factors that influence the integrity are

  20. Evaluating the Environmental Performance of the U.S. Next Generation Air Transportation System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, Michael; Augustine, Stephen; Ermatinger, Christopher; Difelici, John; Thompson, Terence R.; Marcolini, Michael A.; Creedon, Jeremiah F.

    2009-01-01

    The environmental impacts of several possible U.S. Next Generation Air Transportation scenarios have been quantitatively evaluated for noise, air-quality, fuel-efficiency, and CO2 impacts. Three principal findings have emerged. (1) 2025 traffic levels about 30% higher than 2006 are obtained by increasing traffic according to FAA projections while also limiting traffic at each airport using reasonable ratios of demand to capacity. NextGen operational capabilities alone enable attainment of an additional 10-15% more flights beyond that 2025 baseline level with negligible additional noise, air-quality, and fuel-efficiency impacts. (2) The addition of advanced engine and airframe technologies provides substantial additional reductions in noise and air-quality impacts, and further improves fuel efficiency. 2025 environmental goals based on projected system-wide improvement rates of about 1% per year for noise and fuel-efficiency (an air-quality goal is not yet formulated) are achieved using this new vehicle technology. (3) Overall air-transport "product", as measured by total flown distance or total payload distance, increases by about 50% relative to 2006, but total fuel consumption and CO2 production increase by only about 40% using NextGen operational capabilities. With the addition of advanced engine/airframe technologies, the increase in total fuel consumption and CO2 production can be reduced to about 30%.

  1. Relationship between people's awareness of environmental capabilities of saving energy, photovoltaic power generation and nuclear power generation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hashiba, Takashi [Institute of Nuclear Safety System Inc., Mihama, Fukui (Japan)

    2001-09-01

    In this research, relationship between people's awareness of environmental capabilities of saving energy, photovoltaic power generation (PV) and nuclear power generation was investigated using questionnaire method. The results showed that saving energy is conducted without reference to its environment preservation effect. However the older people tend to regard saving energy as contribution to environment preservation. The attitude toward usage of PV has a close relationship to awareness of energy environmental concerns. Acceptance of cost sharing for the introducing of wide-scale PV systems to society is related to environment protection image of PV and the attitude toward loss of social convenience lost as a result of saving energy activities. The older people become, the more priority people put on environment protection before the social convenience. There is little relationship between environmental capabilities of nuclear power generation, that never discharge CO{sub 2} on generation, and awareness of energy environmental concerns. (author)

  2. Macro-economic and energy scenarios for Japan through the long-term

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mankin, Shuichi

    1986-03-01

    As one of studies and systems analyses on the role of VHTR and process heat utilization in future energy systems, long-term macro economic and energy scenarios of Japan until the year 2030 have been generated. This paper presents,; 1) the outline of the long-term macro econometric model and the energy system dynamics model by which these scenarios were generated, 2) back grounds and prospects on future societies of Japan and exogeneous assumptions for calculations, and 3) macro energy and economic scenarios generated. Reflecting the present economic prospects, these scenarios are seemed to be of extremely low-growth type, however, the role of VHTR and its energy systems could be prospected clealy to play a large and important role within these scenario regions. Basic philosophies of scenario generations are also mentioned in this paper. (author)

  3. Environmental aspects of commercial radioactive waste management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1979-05-01

    Environmental effects (including accidents) associated with facility construction, operation, decommissioning, and transportation in the management of commercially generated radioactive waste were analyzed for plants and systems assuming a light water power reactor scenario that produces about 10,000 GWe-yr through the year 2050. The following alternative fuel cycle modes or cases that generate post-fission wastes requiring management were analyzed: a once-through option, a fuel reprocessing option for uranium and plutonium recycle, and a fuel reprocessing option for uranium-only recycle. Volume 1 comprises five chapters: introduction; summary of findings; approach to assessment of environmental effects from radioactive waste management; environmental effects related to radioactive management in a once-through fuel cycle; and environmental effects of radioactive waste management associated with an LWR fuel reprocessing plant. (LK)

  4. Environmental aspects of commercial radioactive waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-05-01

    Environmental effects (including accidents) associated with facility construction, operation, decommissioning, and transportation in the management of commercially generated radioactive waste were analyzed for plants and systems assuming a light water power reactor scenario that produces about 10,000 GWe-yr through the year 2050. The following alternative fuel cycle modes or cases that generate post-fission wastes requiring management were analyzed: a once-through option, a fuel reprocessing option for uranium and plutonium recycle, and a fuel reprocessing option for uranium-only recycle. Volume 1 comprises five chapters: introduction; summary of findings; approach to assessment of environmental effects from radioactive waste management; environmental effects related to radioactive management in a once-through fuel cycle; and environmental effects of radioactive waste management associated with an LWR fuel reprocessing plant

  5. New generation LDHI with an improved environmental profile

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fu, Bob; Houston, Christopher; Spratt, Tony

    2005-01-01

    A new generation of low dosage hydrate inhibitors has been developed. These inhibitors are specially designed and synthesized in the laboratory in order to achieve a high level of performance as hydrate inhibitors and to improve their environmental profiles. These new inhibitors have been extensively evaluated in the laboratory using high pressure rocking cells. They function like anti-agglomerants by preventing the formation of large hydrate crystals or agglomerates. The resulting hydrate crystals are extremely tiny and finely dispersed in the hydrocarbon stream. In addition to controlling the hydrate crystal growth, these novel molecules demonstrate the ability to extend the induction time to onset of hydrate formation. When compared to the previous generations, the improved performance as well as the favorable environmental characteristics further expand the window for LDHI applications in the fields. (Author)

  6. Generation of scenarios from calibrated ensemble forecasts with a dual ensemble copula coupling approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ben Bouallègue, Zied; Heppelmann, Tobias; Theis, Susanne E.

    2016-01-01

    the original ensemble forecasts. Based on the assumption of error stationarity, parametric methods aim to fully describe the forecast dependence structures. In this study, the concept of ECC is combined with past data statistics in order to account for the autocorrelation of the forecast error. The new...... approach, called d-ECC, is applied to wind forecasts from the high resolution ensemble system COSMO-DE-EPS run operationally at the German weather service. Scenarios generated by ECC and d-ECC are compared and assessed in the form of time series by means of multivariate verification tools and in a product...

  7. Deployment Effects of Marine Renewable Energy Technologies: Wave Energy Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mirko Previsic

    2010-06-17

    Given proper care in siting, design, deployment, operation and maintenance, wave energy conversion could become one of the more environmentally benign sources of electricity generation. In order to accelerate the adoption of these emerging hydrokinetic and marine energy technologies, navigational and environmental concerns must be identified and addressed. All developing hydrokinetic projects involve a wide variety of stakeholders. One of the key issues that site developers face as they engage with this range of stakeholders is that, due to a lack of technical certainty, many of the possible conflicts (e.g., shipping and fishing) and environmental issues are not well-understood,. In September 2008, re vision consulting, LLC was selected by the Department of Energy (DoE) to apply a scenario-based assessment to the emerging hydrokinetic technology sector in order to evaluate the potential impact of these technologies on the marine environment and navigation constraints. The project’s scope of work includes the establishment of baseline scenarios for wave and tidal power conversion at potential future deployment sites. The scenarios capture variations in technical approaches and deployment scales to properly identify and characterize environmental effects and navigational effects. The goal of the project is to provide all stakeholders with an improved understanding of the potential range of technical attributes and potential effects of these emerging technologies and focus all stakeholders on the critical issues that need to be addressed. By identifying and addressing navigational and environmental concerns in the early stages of the industry’s development, serious mistakes that could potentially derail industry-wide development can be avoided. This groundwork will also help in streamlining siting and associated permitting processes, which are considered key hurdles for the industry’s development in the U.S. today. Re vision is coordinating its efforts with two

  8. Elaborating SRES scenarios for nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McDonald, Alan; Riahi, Keywan; Rogner, Hans-Holger

    2003-01-01

    The objective of this paper is identifying mid-century economic targets for nuclear energy. The first step is to describe what the mid-century energy market might look like: the major competitors for nuclear energy, what products are in demand, how much of each, where is growth greatest, and so forth. The mechanism for systematically describing the future market is scenario building. The starting point is the scenarios in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. SRES developed four narrative story lines, each representing a different coherent set of demographic, social, economic, technological, and environmental developments. For each story line several different scenarios were developed by six international modelling teams, resulting in 40 scenarios grouped in the 4 story lines. For three of the story lines this paper uses a single marker scenario representative of central tendencies within the scenario family. For the fourth story line the authors chose the scenario that assumes that advances in non-fossil technologies - renewable, nuclear, and high-efficiency conservation technologies - make them most cost-competitive. (BA)

  9. Nuclear Futures Analysis and Scenario Building

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arthur, E.D.; Beller, D.; Canavan, G.H.; Krakowski, R.A.; Peterson, P.; Wagner, R.L.

    1999-01-01

    This LDRD project created and used advanced analysis capabilities to postulate scenarios and identify issues, externalities, and technologies associated with future ''things nuclear''. ''Things nuclear'' include areas pertaining to nuclear weapons, nuclear materials, and nuclear energy, examined in the context of future domestic and international environments. Analysis tools development included adaptation and expansion of energy, environmental, and economics (E3) models to incorporate a robust description of the nuclear fuel cycle (both current and future technology pathways), creation of a beginning proliferation risk model (coupled to the (E3) model), and extension of traditional first strike stability models to conditions expected to exist in the future (smaller force sizes, multipolar engagement environments, inclusion of actual and latent nuclear weapons (capability)). Accomplishments include scenario development for regional and global nuclear energy, the creation of a beginning nuclear architecture designed to improve the proliferation resistance and environmental performance of the nuclear fuel cycle, and numerous results for future nuclear weapons scenarios

  10. Collaborative development of land use change scenarios for analysing hydro-meteorological risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malek, Žiga; Glade, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    Simulating future land use changes remains a difficult task, due to uncontrollable and uncertain driving forces of change. Scenario development emerged as a tool to address these limitations. Scenarios offer the exploration of possible futures and environmental consequences, and enable the analysis of possible decisions. Therefore, there is increasing interest of both decision makers and researchers to apply scenarios when studying future land use changes and their consequences. The uncertainties related to generating land use change scenarios are among others defined by the accuracy of data, identification and quantification of driving forces, and the relation between expected future changes and the corresponding spatial pattern. To address the issue of data and intangible driving forces, several studies have applied collaborative, participatory techniques when developing future scenarios. The involvement of stakeholders can lead to incorporating a broader spectrum of professional values and experience. Moreover, stakeholders can help to provide missing data, improve detail, uncover mistakes, and offer alternatives. Thus, collaborative scenarios can be considered as more reliable and relevant. Collaborative scenario development has been applied to study a variety of issues in environmental sciences on different spatial and temporal scales. Still, these participatory approaches are rarely spatially explicit, making them difficult to apply when analysing changes to hydro-meteorological risk on a local scale. Spatial explicitness is needed to identify potentially critical areas of land use change, leading to locations where the risk might increase. In order to allocate collaboratively developed scenarios of land change, we combined participatory modeling with geosimulation in a multi-step scenario generation framework. We propose a framework able to develop scenarios that are plausible, can overcome data inaccessibility, address intangible and external driving forces

  11. Stress scenario generation for solvency and risk management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Marcus Christian; Henriksen, Lars Frederik Brandt; Schomacker, Kristian Juul

    2016-01-01

    We derive worst-case scenarios in a life insurance model in the case where the interest rate and the various transition intensities are mutually dependent. Examples of this dependence are that (a) surrender intensities and interest rates are high at the same time, (b) mortality intensities of a p...

  12. Global Energy-Economy-Environment (E3) Scenarios to 2050 and Beyond

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schrattenholzer, L.

    2005-01-01

    The Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies (ECS) Program at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) develops policy-relevant global and world-regional energy perspectives. The basic premise of the ECS's research program is a global trend of d ecarbonization . Firstly, decarbonization includes a trend toward ever-greater efficiency, or ever less waste, in society's use of energy resources. Secondly, it includes a trend towards less carbon-intensive fossil fuels (e.g., from coal toward natural gas) and, further, to non-fossil fuels, especially renewable energy carriers. Technological change is generally regarded as one of the key drivers of sustained economic growth. Long-term energy scenarios developed at IIASA and elsewhere show that, depending on key assumptions on drivers such as population, economic growth and technological development, global energy development can be environmentally unsustainable. First, energy development might not lead to stabilizing greenhouse concentrations and might thus have significant negative impacts on the global climate. In addition, some, especially coal-intensive, scenarios might lead to levels of acid deposition at which significant damage to sensitive ecosystems is expected to occur in Europe and, even more so, in Asia. A continuation of the observed historical long-term trends of decarbonization, dematerialization, and energy efficiency improvements might therefore not be sufficient to achieve sustainable growth. Targeted technological development aiming at accelerating decarbonization, dematerialization, and/or efficiency improvement may be one of the most effective means for reconciling economic growth with global environmental objectives. This might require a step-up in investments in R and D and in the demonstration of technologies so as to stimulate both learning-by-searching and learning-by-doing. In this presentation, global E3 scenarios will be summarized in the following three groups: Non

  13. Scenario analysis of sustainable development of the world largest ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this study, scenario analysis of the social development and environmental protection ... Scenario 2 is obviously more preferable though its ecological goal is not the most ... International Journal of Engineering, Science and Technology, Vol.

  14. Environmental management of business processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vesna Čančer

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available Since the decision-makers in enterprises will accept the goals of environmental management only if they are motivated enough, comprehensible and useful tools should be generated to support environmentally oriented business decision-making. For that reason, a general optimisation model of the multiphase business process is presented in this paper. This model includes the possibilities for an integrated approach to environmental protection so that it can be applied as a scenario by the business process simulation for the evaluation of environmentally oriented business decisions on business performance. Furthermore, development and application possibilities of the presented model are introduced. Some measures of resource efficiency are developed using the presented optimisation model.

  15. Environmental Impact Assessment of Wind Generators in the Czech Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimír Lapčík

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available The article summarizes author´s experience with environmental impact assessment in branch of wind generators. The introductorypart of paper describes legislative obligations of the Czech Republic in frame of fulfilling the European Union´s limits in branch ofrenewable energy resources utilization. Next part of paper deals with analysis of impacts of wind generators on the environment.The final part of paper deals with experience with implementation of the environmental impact assessment process (pursuant to the ActNo. 100/2001 Coll. in the field of wind power in the Czech Republic.

  16. Assessment of environmental impact of nuclear and other options for electricity generation in Croatia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feretic, D.; Tomsic, Z.; Kovacevic, T.

    1996-01-01

    Possible scenarios of future electricity production and supply, especially their environmental impact and social acceptability, have recently been put in the focus of overall interest. This paper analyzes the air impact and costs of possible developing options, varying the fuel types for future power plants. Nuclear option has also been taken in consideration. Two categories of costs have been introduced: internal cost (investment, O and M and fuel cost) and external cost (monetary equivalent of the environmental damage caused by plant operation). (author)

  17. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

    2016-01-01

    explicit emissions and land use scenarios generated with integrated assessment models will be provided to participating climate modeling groups by late 2016, with the climate model simulations run within the 2017–2018 time frame, and output from the climate model projections made available and analyses performed over the 2018–2020 period.

  18. Environmental compliance audits of electric generating facilities - a practical approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Staker, R.D.

    1992-01-01

    As environmental regulations expand in complexity and number, and as regulatory agencies place more emphasis on enforcing regulations, it is increasingly important that electric utilities perform periodic environmental compliance audits to determine if their facilities are in compliance with federal, state, and local environmental regulations. Explicit commitment by the utility's top management and careful planning and execution of an audit are key elements in the effectiveness of an audit. This paper is directed to electric utility environmental managers and company management. The paper presents a practical approach for planning and performing a multi-media environmental compliance of an electric generating facility

  19. Economic and environmental assessment of n-butanol production in an integrated first and second generation sugarcane biorefinery: Fermentative versus catalytic routes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pereira, L.G.; Dias, M.O.S.; Mariano, A.P.; Maciel Filho, R.; Bonomi, A.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Financial and environmental impacts of n-butanol production were investigated. • Analysis showed promising economic results for ABE fermentation scenarios. • Ethanol catalysis to butanol presented discouraging figures. • n-Butanol use as fuel demonstrated favorable GHG emissions results. - Abstract: n-Butanol produced from renewable resources has attracted increasing interest, mostly for its potential use as liquid biofuel for transportation. Process currently used in the industry (Acetone–Butanol–Ethanol fermentation – ABE) faces major technical challenges, which could be overcome by an alternative production through ethanol catalysis. In this study, both routes are evaluated by means of their financial viabilities and environmental performance assessed through the Virtual Sugarcane Biorefinery methodological framework. Comparative financial analysis of the routes integrated to a first and second generation sugarcane biorefinery shows that, despite the drawbacks, ABE process for fermentation of the pentoses liquor is more attractive than the catalysis of ethanol to n-butanol and co-products. n-Butanol use as fuel demonstrated favorable environmental results for climate change as figures showed over 50% reduction in greenhouse gas emission compared with gasoline.

  20. Decommissioning of offshore oil and gas facilities: a comparative assessment of different scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ekins, Paul; Vanner, Robin; Firebrace, James

    2006-06-01

    A material and energy flow analysis, with corresponding financial flows, was carried out for different decommissioning scenarios for the different elements of an offshore oil and gas structure. A comparative assessment was made of the non-financial (especially environmental) outcomes of the different scenarios, with the reference scenario being to leave all structures in situ, while other scenarios envisaged leaving them on the seabed or removing them to shore for recycling and disposal. The costs of each scenario, when compared with the reference scenario, give an implicit valuation of the non-financial outcomes (e.g. environmental improvements), should that scenario be adopted by society. The paper concludes that it is not clear that the removal of the topsides and jackets of large steel structures to shore, as currently required by regulations, is environmentally justified; that concrete structures should certainly be left in place; and that leaving footings, cuttings and pipelines in place, with subsequent monitoring, would also be justified unless very large values were placed by society on a clear seabed and trawling access.

  1. Assessing the environmental costs and benefits of plantations under future carbon pricing scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, R. B.; Barrett, D. J.; Farley, K.; Guenther, A.; Jobbágy, E. G.; Murray, B. C.; McCarl, B. A.; Schlesinger, W. H.

    2004-12-01

    Carbon sequestration programs are gaining attention globally as a means to offset increasing fossil fuel emissions and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. We are examining scenarios of C sequestration in four regions of the world: the U.S., South America, China, and Australia. The analysis uses economic models to predict where the plantations will be grown and then categorizes the other biogeochemical changes that will likely occur. The goals of the project include: 1) Evaluating the assumptions behind C sequestration programs for plantations, including the importance of rotation rates, a full accounting of carbon costs (e.g., planting and site preparation), and how the C would be stored and safeguarded. 2) Examining the scale of the process needed to make a substantial contribution to offset fossil fuel emissions (see below). The scenario we have chosen to evaluate is one that addresses the consequences of storing 1 PgC yr-1 for 50 years. 3) Determining and summarizing the evidence for other biogeochemical changes that will likely occur. Some of the factors to be evaluated include soil acidification, changes in water fluxes and water-table dynamics, nutrient losses, changes in soil fauna and biodiversity, volatile organic carbon emissions, and erosion. 4) A final goal of the project is to make concrete recommendations for where plantations may be the most beneficial in terms of C storage and other environmental benefits, such as the amelioration of salinity and groundwater upwelling in Australia.

  2. Electricity demand and supply scenarios for Maharashtra (India) for 2030: An application of long range energy alternatives planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kale, Rajesh V.; Pohekar, Sanjay D.

    2014-01-01

    Forecasting of electricity demand has assumed a lot of importance to provide sustainable solutions to the electricity problems. LEAP has been used to forecast electricity demand for the target year 2030, for the state of Maharashtra (India). Holt’s exponential smoothing method has been used to arrive at suitable growth rates. Probable projections have been generated using uniform gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate and different values of elasticity of demands. Three scenarios have been generated which include Business as Usual (BAU), Energy Conservation (EC) and Renewable Energy (REN). Subsequent analysis on the basis of energy, environmental influence and cost has been done. In the target year 2030, the projected electricity demand for BAU and REN has increased by 107.3 per cent over the base year 2012 and EC electricity demand has grown by 54.3 per cent. The estimated values of green house gas (GHG) for BAU and EC, in the year 2030, are 245.2 per cent and 152.4 per cent more than the base year and for REN it is 46.2 per cent less. Sensitivity analysis has been performed to study the effect on the total cost of scenarios. Policy implications in view of the results obtained are also discussed. - Highlights: • Forecasted electricity scenarios by Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP). • Critically analyzed the demand and supply prior to 2012 for a period of six years. • Used Holt’s exponential smoothing method ARIMA (0,1,1) for finding growth rates. • Devised suitable LEAP model for the generated scenarios. • Discussed policy implications for the generated scenarios

  3. Future Scenarios and Environmental Education

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kopnina, H.N.

    2014-01-01

    This article explores a number of questions about visions of the future and their implications for environmental education (EE). If the future were known, what kind of actions would be needed to maintain the positive aspects and reverse the negative ones? How could these actions be translated into

  4. Scenario generation for electric vehicles' uncertain behavior in a smart city environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soares, João; Borges, Nuno; Fotouhi Ghazvini, Mohammad Ali; Vale, Zita; Moura Oliveira, P.B. de

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a framework and methods to estimate electric vehicles' possible states, regarding their demand, location and grid connection periods. The proposed methods use the Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the probability of occurrence for each state and a fuzzy logic probabilistic approach to characterize the uncertainty of electric vehicles' demand. Day-ahead and hour-ahead methodologies are proposed to support the smart grids' operational decisions. A numerical example is presented using an electric vehicles fleet in a smart city environment to obtain each electric vehicle possible states regarding their grid location. - Highlights: • New concept/framework in smart cities context to estimate the states of electric vehicles and energy demand. • Monte Carlo Simulation and fuzzy logic probabilistic approach to support the envisaged concept. • A day-ahead and an hour-ahead stochastic scenarios generation to support the smart grid's operational decisions.

  5. Electricity planning in Japan by 2030 through scenario analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishihara, Keiichi N.; Qi, Zhang; Mclellan, Benjamin C.; Tezuka, Tetsuo

    2013-01-01

    Under continuing policies of the mitigation of GHG (Green House Gases) emission, it is crucial to consider scenarios for Japan to realize a safe and clean future electricity system after the Fukushima nuclear accident. The development plans of nuclear power and renewable energy - mainly PV and wind power - need to be reconsidered. Therefore, in the present study, three electricity supply scenarios in 2030 are proposed according to different future nuclear power development strategies: (1) negative nuclear power; (2) conservative nuclear power; and (3) active pursuit of nuclear power. On the other side, three electricity demand scenarios are also proposed considering energy saving. The purpose of the study is to propose electricity supply systems with maximum renewable energy penetration under different nuclear power development strategies and demand situations through scenario analysis. The scenario analysis is conducted using an input-output hour-by-hour simulation model subject to constraints from technological, economic and environmental perspectives. The obtained installed capacity mix, power generation mix and CO 2 emissions of the scenarios were compared and analyzed with each other and with historical data. The results show that (1) penetration level of renewable energy is subject to the share of nuclear power as base load; (2) it is very difficult to remove nuclear power absolutely from the electricity system even when a high level of penetration of renewable energy is realized; (3) high level penetration of renewable energy can reduce the dependence on nuclear and thermal power, but there is a need for more flexible power sources to absorb fluctuations; (4) CO 2 emissions reduction compared to 1990 levels can be readily achieved with the help of renewable energy, nuclear power and energy saving in 2030. This is a revised version of the paper that was published in [1]. (author)

  6. NEC-2020 emission reduction scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Slentø, Erik; Nielsen, Ole-Kenneth; Hoffmann, Leif

    The upcoming NEC-2020 EU directive sets up emission ceilings for NOX, SO2, NH3, NMVOC and PM in order to meet the environmental exposure targets of the Thematic Strategy. This report contains an assessment of intermediary emission reduction scenarios for Denmark, computed by the GAINS model 2007,......, which serves as the basis for the pending negotiations in EU. The assessment is brought up to date by including a brief evaluation of the new reduction scenarios published in 2008, founding the European Commission NEC-2020 directive proposal....

  7. Radionuclide release calculations for selected severe accident scenarios. PWR, ice condenser design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denning, R S; Gieseke, J A; Cybulskis, P; Lee, K W; Jordan, H; Curtis, L A; Kelly, R F; Kogan, V; Schumacher, P M

    1986-07-01

    This report presents results of analyses of the environmental releases of fission products (source terms) for severe accident scenarios in a pressurized water reactor with an ice-condenser containment. The analyses were performed to support the Severe Accident Risk Reduction/Risk Rebaselining Program (SARRP) which is being undertaken for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission by Sandia National Laboratories. In the SARRP program, risk estimates are being generated for a number of reference plant designs. The Sequoyah Plant has been used in this study as an example of a PWR ice-condenser plant. (author)

  8. Environmental and other considerations in development of new nuclear power generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wan, P.K.

    2005-01-01

    Power generation is well recognized as a major prerequisite for a country's economic development. When developing a new nuclear power project, major environmental issues range from understanding of the environmental regulations of the country where the project is going to be built and the policies of the financial institution(s) involved, to dealing with the logistical issues associated with the acquisition of in country consultants, and language and cultural differences in producing the required environmental documents. One of the important pre-construction environmental efforts for nuclear power project is preparation of an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA). An EIA is typically required to be performed for both the host country and the financial institutions engaged. The primary issues addressed in the EIA prepared for the country and that prepared for the bank are not necessarily the same, nor are the level of analyses likely to be conducted for a given environmental topic. The consequences for the development of a nuclear power project can be far-reaching, since the proposed project has the potential to cause significant socioeconomic impacts on local population and government, if it is not properly sited and/or designed. Thus, many of the financial institutions (such as the World Bank) require environmental and social-economic impact assessments as pre-requisite for funding approval. In addition, sustainable development objectives must be identified and fulfilled to alleviate the risks associated with project go-ahead decision. This paper addresses environmental and other considerations in development of nuclear power generation systems under an electric power industry privatization environment. Case studies of recent permitting activities for new nuclear power generation projects in the United States and funding issues for a nuclear power plant recently built in China are also discussed. (authors)

  9. Sowing Seeds for Future Generations: Development of Generative Concern and Its Relation to Environmental Narrative Identity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Fanli; Soucie, Kendall; Alisat, Susan; Pratt, Michael

    2016-01-01

    In this longitudinal study, we examined the relationship between the trajectory of generative concern measured at ages 23, 26 and 32 and environmental narrative identity at age 32. Canadian participants completed a questionnaire on generative concern at ages 23, 26 and 32 and were then interviewed about their personal experiences with the…

  10. Condition-Based Maintenance Strategy for Production Systems Generating Environmental Damage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Tlili

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We consider production systems which generate damage to environment as they get older and degrade. The system is submitted to inspections to assess the generated environmental damage. The inspections can be periodic or nonperiodic. In case an inspection reveals that the environmental degradation level has exceeded the critical level U, the system is considered in an advanced deterioration state and will have generated significant environmental damage. A corrective maintenance action is then performed to renew the system and clean the environment and a penalty has to be paid. In order to prevent such an undesirable situation, a lower threshold level L is considered to trigger a preventive maintenance action to bring back the system to a state as good as new at a lower cost and without paying the penalty. Two inspection policies are considered (periodic and nonperiodic. For each one of them, a mathematical model and a numerical procedure are developed to determine simultaneously the preventive maintenance (PM threshold L∗ and the inspection sequence which minimize the average long-run cost per time unit. Numerical calculations are performed to illustrate the proposed maintenance policies and highlight their main characteristics with respect to relevant input parameters.

  11. Analysis of the environmental impact generated by nuclear activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lazar, Roxana Elena; Dumitrescu, Maria

    2000-01-01

    Assessment of environmental impact represents one of the most formalized examples of interdisciplinary approach. After more then a century from the introduction of the concept of environmental impact assessment, this undertaking still represents an amalgamation of mini-studies based on pre-determined approaches rather than a genuine integrated document. This work presents the most important and adequate techniques of analysis of environmental impact generated by nuclear activities starting from identification of the events causing negative effects upon environment (by using checking list, the matrices and the cause-effect diagram) and radiation dose determination up to the decision making process. To preserve environment integrity the human factor should be re-evaluated as well as its active participation in formation and settling of an real environmental culture

  12. Hybrid neuro-fuzzy system for power generation control with environmental constraints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chaturvedi, Krishna Teerth; Pandit, Manjaree; Srivastava, Laxmi

    2008-01-01

    The real time controls at the central energy management centre in a power system, continuously track the load changes and endeavor to match the total power demand with total generation in such a manner that the operating cost is least. However due to the strict government regulations on environmental protection, operation at minimum cost is no longer the only criterion for dispatching electrical power. The idea behind the environmentally constrained combined economic dispatch formulation is to estimate the optimal generation allocation to generating units in such a manner that fuel cost and harmful emission levels are both simultaneously minimized for a given load demand. Conventional optimization techniques are cumbersome for such complex optimization tasks and are not suitable for on-line use due to increased computational burden. This paper proposes a neuro-fuzzy power dispatch method where the uncertainty involved with power demand is modeled as a fuzzy variable. Then Levenberg-Marquardt neural network (LMNN) is used to evaluate the optimal generation schedules. This model trains almost hundred times faster that the popular BP neural network. The proposed method has been tested on two test systems and found to be suitable for on-line combined environmental economic dispatch

  13. Exploring Persona-Scenarios - Using Storytelling to Create Design Ideas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madsen, Sabine; Nielsen, Lene

    This paper explores the persona-scenario method by investigating how the method can support project participants in generating shared understandings and design ideas. As persona-scenarios are stories we draw on narrative theory to define what a persona-scenario is and which narrative elements it should consist of. Based on an empirical study a key finding is that despite our inherent human ability to construct, tell, and interpret stories it is not easy to write and present a good, coherent, and design-oriented story without methodical support. The paper therefore contributes with guidelines that delineate a) what a design-oriented persona-scenario should consist of (product) and b) how to write it (procedure) in order to generate and validate as many, new, and shared understandings and design ideas as possible (purpose). The purpose of the guidelines is to facilitate the construction of persona-scenarios as good, coherent stories, which make sense to the storytellers and to the audience - and which therefore generate many, new, and shared understandings and design ideas.

  14. Biodiversity scenarios neglect future land-use changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Titeux, Nicolas; Henle, Klaus; Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste; Regos, Adrián; Geijzendorffer, Ilse R; Cramer, Wolfgang; Verburg, Peter H; Brotons, Lluís

    2016-07-01

    Efficient management of biodiversity requires a forward-looking approach based on scenarios that explore biodiversity changes under future environmental conditions. A number of ecological models have been proposed over the last decades to develop these biodiversity scenarios. Novel modelling approaches with strong theoretical foundation now offer the possibility to integrate key ecological and evolutionary processes that shape species distribution and community structure. Although biodiversity is affected by multiple threats, most studies addressing the effects of future environmental changes on biodiversity focus on a single threat only. We examined the studies published during the last 25 years that developed scenarios to predict future biodiversity changes based on climate, land-use and land-cover change projections. We found that biodiversity scenarios mostly focus on the future impacts of climate change and largely neglect changes in land use and land cover. The emphasis on climate change impacts has increased over time and has now reached a maximum. Yet, the direct destruction and degradation of habitats through land-use and land-cover changes are among the most significant and immediate threats to biodiversity. We argue that the current state of integration between ecological and land system sciences is leading to biased estimation of actual risks and therefore constrains the implementation of forward-looking policy responses to biodiversity decline. We suggest research directions at the crossroads between ecological and environmental sciences to face the challenge of developing interoperable and plausible projections of future environmental changes and to anticipate the full range of their potential impacts on biodiversity. An intergovernmental platform is needed to stimulate such collaborative research efforts and to emphasize the societal and political relevance of taking up this challenge. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Scoping Future Policy Dynamics in Raw Materials Through Scenarios Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Correia, Vitor; Keane, Christopher; Sturm, Flavius; Schimpf, Sven; Bodo, Balazs

    2017-04-01

    The International Raw Materials Observatory (INTRAW) project is working towards a sustainable future for the European Union in access to raw materials, from an availability, economical, and environmental framework. One of the major exercises for the INTRAW project is the evaluation of potential future scenarios for 2050 to frame economic, research, and environmental policy towards a sustainable raw materials supply. The INTRAW consortium developed three possible future scenarios that encompass defined regimes of political, economic, and technological norms. The first scenario, "Unlimited Trade," reflects a world in which free trade continues to dominate the global political and economic environment, with expectations of a growing demand for raw materials from widely distributed global growth. The "National Walls" scenario reflects a world where nationalism and economic protectionism begins to dominate, leading to stagnating economic growth and uneven dynamics in raw materials supply and demand. The final scenario, "Sustainability Alliance," examines the dynamics of a global political and economic climate that is focused on environmental and economic sustainability, leading towards increasingly towards a circular raw materials economy. These scenarios were reviewed, tested, and provided simulations of impacts with members of the Consortium and a panel of global experts on international raw materials issues which led to expected end conditions for 2050. Given the current uncertainty in global politics, these scenarios are informative to identifying likely opportunities and crises. The details of these simulations and expected responses to the research demand, technology investments, and economic components of raw materials system will be discussed.

  16. Economic and Environmental Evaluation and Optimal Ratio of Natural and Recycled Aggregate Production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milad Ghanbari

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Steady increase in overexploitation of stone quarries, generation of construction and demolition waste, and costs of preparing extra landfill space have become environmental and waste management challenges in metropolises. In this paper, aggregate production is studied in two scenarios: scenario 1 representing the production of natural aggregates (NA and scenario 2 representing the production of recycled aggregates (RA. This study consists of two parts. In the first part, the objective is the environmental assessment (energy consumption and CO2 emission and economic (cost evaluation of these two scenarios, which is pursued by life-cycle assessment (LCA method. In the second part, the results of the first part are used to estimate the optimal combination of production of NA and RA and thereby find an optimal solution (scenario for a more eco-friendly aggregate production. The defined formulas and relationship are used to develop a model. The results of model validation show that the optimal ratio, in optimal scenario, is 50%. The results show that, compared to scenario 1, optimal scenario improves the energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and production cost by, respectively, 30%, 36%, and 31%, which demonstrate the effectiveness of this optimization.

  17. Energy scenarios for the nordic region towards 2035

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fidje, Audun

    2008-07-01

    This report summarizes the assumptions, methodology and main results of the MARKAL analysis of options for a sustainable energy future in the Nordic region. The work is based on the Nordic MARKAL model, which has been modified such that it may be used to analyse a large number of scenarios, typically 500 to 5000. The scenarios are developed by analysis a set of strategies and uncertainties. All these strategies and uncertainties are combined such that we generate in total 1 152 scenarios. The main purpose of generating a large number of scenarios was to facilitate for multi-criteria trade-off analysis. Overall results from this analysis show that large reductions of CO{sub 2} emissions are possible at CO{sub 2} cost below 50 EUR/t CO{sub 2} (author)

  18. Incorporating land-use requirements and environmental constraints in low-carbon electricity planning for California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Grace C; Torn, Margaret S; Williams, James H

    2015-02-17

    The land-use implications of deep decarbonization of the electricity sector (e.g., 80% below 1990 emissions) have not been well-characterized quantitatively or spatially. We assessed the operational-phase land-use requirements of different low-carbon scenarios for California in 2050 and found that most scenarios have comparable direct land footprints. While the per MWh footprint of renewable energy (RE) generation is initially higher, that of fossil and nuclear generation increases over time with continued fuel use. We built a spatially explicit model to understand the interactions between resource quality and environmental constraints in a high RE scenario (>70% of total generation). We found that there is sufficient land within California to meet the solar and geothermal targets, but areas with the highest quality wind and solar resources also tend to be those with high conservation value. Development of some land with lower conservation value results in lower average capacity factors, but also provides opportunity for colocation of different generation technologies, which could significantly improve land-use efficiency and reduce permitting, leasing, and transmission infrastructure costs. Basing siting decisions on environmentally-constrained long-term RE build-out requirements produces significantly different results, including better conservation outcomes, than implied by the current piecemeal approach to planning.

  19. Impact of financial institution environmental guidelines on international power generation projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Macak, J.J. III; Schott, G.A.

    1995-01-01

    Where financing is concerned, two major players for US based international power projects are The World Bank and the Export-Import Bank of the US (Ex-Im Bank). The concern for environmental protection is a global issue, yet many countries still have no enforceable environmental regulations for power generation facilities. In the past, many projects were developed with little or no environmental controls. However, designing a power generation project to meet The World Bank environmental guidelines is now generally regarded as standard practice for independent power projects in the developing world (Price et al, 1994). The World Bank standards are mandatory for projects financed by The World Bank, through the International Finance Corporation (IFC), or associated programs like the Expanded Cofinancing Program of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD). The Ex-Im Bank has recently established new environmental procedures and guidelines that went into effect on February 1, 1995. In order to avoid a competitive disadvantage for US exporters and still provide a means for global environmental protection, Ex-Im Bank has taken a leadership role in encouraging the adoption of common environmental procedures and standards by leading export credit agencies around the world. Until such procedures are established, Ex-Im Bank is seeking to establish common lines in specific cases with the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) on environmental standards for appropriate projects (Ex-Im, 1994)

  20. Environmental and natural resource implications of sustainable urban infrastructure systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergesen, Joseph D.; Suh, Sangwon; Baynes, Timothy M.; Kaviti Musango, Josephine

    2017-12-01

    As cities grow, their environmental and natural resource footprints also tend to grow to keep up with the increasing demand on essential urban services such as passenger transportation, commercial space, and thermal comfort. The urban infrastructure systems, or socio-technical systems providing these services are the major conduits through which natural resources are consumed and environmental impacts are generated. This paper aims to gauge the potential reductions in environmental and resources footprints through urban transformation, including the deployment of resource-efficient socio-technical systems and strategic densification. Using hybrid life cycle assessment approach combined with scenarios, we analyzed the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, water use, metal consumption and land use of selected socio-technical systems in 84 cities from the present to 2050. The socio-technical systems analyzed are: (1) bus rapid transit with electric buses, (2) green commercial buildings, and (3) district energy. We developed a baseline model for each city considering gross domestic product, population density, and climate conditions. Then, we overlaid three scenarios on top of the baseline model: (1) decarbonization of electricity, (2) aggressive deployment of resource-efficient socio-technical systems, and (3) strategic urban densification scenarios to each city and quantified their potentials in reducing the environmental and resource impacts of cities by 2050. The results show that, under the baseline scenario, the environmental and natural resource footprints of all 84 cities combined would increase 58%-116% by 2050. The resource-efficient scenario along with strategic densification, however, has the potential to curve down GHG emissions to 17% below the 2010 level in 2050. Such transformation can also limit the increase in all resource footprints to less than 23% relative to 2010. This analysis suggests that resource-efficient urban infrastructure and decarbonization of

  1. An integrated Riverine Environmental Flow Decision Support System (REFDSS) to evaluate the ecological effects of alternative flow scenarios on river ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maloney, Kelly O.; Talbert, Colin B.; Cole, Jeffrey C.; Galbraith, Heather S.; Blakeslee, Carrie J.; Hanson, Leanne; Holmquist-Johnson, Christopher L.

    2015-01-01

    In regulated rivers, managers must evaluate competing flow release scenarios that attempt to balance both human and natural needs. Meeting these natural flow needs is complex due to the myriad of interacting physical and hydrological factors that affect ecosystems. Tools that synthesize the voluminous scientific data and models on these factors will facilitate management of these systems. Here, we present the Riverine Environmental Flow Decision Support System (REFDSS), a tool that enables evaluation of competing flow scenarios and other variables on instream habitat. We developed a REFDSS for the Upper Delaware River, USA, a system that is regulated by three headwater reservoirs. This version of the REFDSS has the ability to integrate any set of spatially explicit data and synthesizes modeled discharge for three competing management scenarios, flow-specific 2-D hydrodynamic modeled estimates of local hydrologic conditions (e.g., depth, velocity, shear stress, etc.) at a fine pixel-scale (1 m2), and habitat suitability criteria (HSC) for a variety of taxa. It contains all individual model outputs, computationally integrates these data, and outputs the amount of potentially available habitat for a suite of species of interest under each flow release scenario. Users have the flexibility to change the time period of interest and vary the HSC. The REFDSS was developed to enable side-by-side evaluation of different flow management scenarios and their effects on potential habitat availability, allowing managers to make informed decisions on the best flow scenarios. An exercise comparing two alternative flow scenarios to a baseline scenario for several key species is presented. The Upper Delaware REFDSS was robust to minor changes in HSC (± 10 %). The general REFDSS platform was developed as a user-friendly Windows desktop application that was designed to include other potential parameters of interest (e.g., temperature) and for transferability to other riverine systems.

  2. CityZoom UP (Urban Pollution): a computational tool for the fast generation and setup of urban scenarios for CFD and dispersion modelling simulation

    OpenAIRE

    Grazziotin, Pablo Colossi

    2016-01-01

    This research presents the development of CityZoom UP, the first attempt to extend existing urban planning software in order to assist in modelling urban scenarios and setting up simulation parameters for Gaussian dispersion and CFD models. Based on the previous capabilities and graphic user interfaces of CityZoom to model and validate urban scenarios based on Master Plan regulations, new graphic user interfaces, automatic mesh generation and data conversion algorithms have been created to se...

  3. The use of multi criteria analysis to compare the operating scenarios of the hybrid generation system of wind turbines, photovoltaic modules and a fuel cell

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceran, Bartosz

    2017-11-01

    The paper presents the results of the use of multi-criteria analysis to compare hybrid power generation system collaboration scenarios (HSW) consisting of wind turbines, solar panels and energy storage electrolyzer - PEM type fuel cell with electricity system. The following scenarios were examined: the base S-I-hybrid system powers the off-grid mode receiver, S-II, S-III, S-IV scenarios-electricity system covers 25%, 50%, 75% of energy demand by the recipient. The effect of weights of the above-mentioned criteria on the final result of the multi-criteria analysis was examined.

  4. Evaluation of a weather generator-based method for statistically downscaling non-stationary climate scenarios for impact assessment at a point scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    The non-stationarity is a major concern for statistically downscaling climate change scenarios for impact assessment. This study is to evaluate whether a statistical downscaling method is fully applicable to generate daily precipitation under non-stationary conditions in a wide range of climatic zo...

  5. IPCC Special report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon

    2001-01-01

    This special report on emissions scenarios (SRES) is intended to reflect the most recent trends in driving forces of emissions; population projections economic development, and structural and technological change. It serves as an update to IS92 scenarios developed by IPCC in the early 1990s to illustrate a plausible range of future greenhouse gas emissions. This update is based on a review of the literature and the development of a database of over 400 global and regional scenarios; 190 of these extend from 1900 to 2100 and thus fed into the development of the narrative scenarios and storylines. Based on the literature review, a set of four alternative scenario families, having a total of 40 emission scenarios have been developed. Each scenario family includes a narrative storyline which describes a demographic, social. economic, technological, environmental and policy future. Characteristic features of each of the four families are summarized and a comparison is made between the IS92 and SRES. One of the main conclusions of this recent scenario construction effort is the realization that alternative combinations of main scenario driving forces can lead to similar levels of GHG emissions by the end of the 21st century, and that scenarios with different underlying assumptions can result in very similar climate change

  6. From local scenarios to national maps: a participatory framework for envisioning the future of Tanzania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Capitani

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Tackling societal and environmental challenges requires new approaches that connect top-down global oversight with bottom-up subnational knowledge. We present a novel framework for participatory development of spatially explicit scenarios at national scale that model socioeconomic and environmental dynamics by reconciling local stakeholder perspectives and national spatial data. We illustrate results generated by this approach and evaluate its potential to contribute to a greater understanding of the relationship between development pathways and sustainability. Using the lens of land use and land cover changes, and engaging 240 stakeholders representing subnational (seven forest management zones and the national level, we applied the framework to assess alternative development strategies in the Tanzania mainland to the year 2025, under either a business as usual or a green development scenario. In the business as usual scenario, no productivity gain is expected, cultivated land expands by ~ 2% per year (up to 88,808 km², with large impacts on woodlands and wetlands. Despite legal protection, encroachment of natural forest occurs along reserve borders. Additional wood demand leads to degradation, i.e., loss of tree cover and biomass, up to 80,426 km² of wooded land. The alternative green economy scenario envisages decreasing degradation and deforestation with increasing productivity (+10% and implementation of payment for ecosystem service schemes. In this scenario, cropland expands by 44,132 km² and the additional degradation is limited to 35,778 km². This scenario development framework captures perspectives and knowledge across a diverse range of stakeholders and regions. Although further effort is required to extend its applicability, improve users' equity, and reduce costs the resulting spatial outputs can be used to inform national level planning and policy implementation associated with sustainable development, especially the REDD

  7. Carbon and environmental footprinting of low carbon UK electricity futures to 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alderson, Helen; Cranston, Gemma R.; Hammond, Geoffrey P.

    2012-01-01

    Electricity generation contributes a large proportion of the total greenhouse gas emissions in the United Kingdom (UK), due to the predominant use of fossil fuel (coal and natural gas) combustion for this purpose. A range of future UK energy scenarios has been employed to determine their resulting environmental and carbon footprints. Methodologies have been established to calculate these footprints for the UK electricity supply industry on both a historic timescale and in accordance with the three selected scenarios. The latter scenarios, developed by the UK SUPERGEN Consortium on ‘Highly Distributed Power Systems’ (HDPS), were characterised as ‘Business As Usual’ (BAU), ‘Low Carbon’ (LC) and ‘Deep Green’ (DG) futures, and yielded possible electricity demands out to 2050. It was found that the environmental footprint of the current power network is 41 million (M) global hectares (gha). If future trends follow a ‘Business As Usual’ scenario, then this footprint is observed to fall to about 25 Mgha in 2050. The LC scenario implies an extensive penetration of micro-generators in the home to satisfy heat and power demands. However, these energy requirements are minimised by way of improved insulation of the building fabric and other demand reduction measures. In contrast, the DG scenario presupposes a network where centralised renewable energy technologies – mainly large-scale onshore and offshore wind turbines - have an important role in the power generation. However, both the LC and DG scenarios were found to lead to footprints of less than 4 Mgha by 2050. These latter two scenarios were found to give rise to quite similar trajectories over the period 2010–2050. They are therefore more likely to reflect an effective transition pathway in terms of meeting the 2050 UK CO 2 reduction targets associated with decarbonisation of its power network. However, this appears unlikely to be achieved by 2030–2040 as advocated by the UK Government

  8. Climate change impacts on the power generation potential of a European mid-century wind farms scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tobin, Isabelle; Vautard, Robert; Noël, Thomas; Jerez, Sonia; Thais, Françoise; Van Meijgaard, Erik; Prein, Andreas; Déqué, Michel; Kotlarski, Sven; Maule, Cathrine Fox; Nikulin, Grigory; Teichmann, Claas

    2016-01-01

    Wind energy resource is subject to changes in climate. To investigate the impacts of climate change on future European wind power generation potential, we analyze a multi-model ensemble of the most recent EURO-CORDEX regional climate simulations at the 12 km grid resolution. We developed a mid-century wind power plant scenario to focus the impact assessment on relevant locations for future wind power industry. We found that, under two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios, changes in the annual energy yield of the future European wind farms fleet as a whole will remain within ±5% across the 21st century. At country to local scales, wind farm yields will undergo changes up to 15% in magnitude, according to the large majority of models, but smaller than 5% in magnitude for most regions and models. The southern fleets such as the Iberian and Italian fleets are likely to be the most affected. With regard to variability, changes are essentially small or poorly significant from subdaily to interannual time scales. (letter)

  9. PERFORMANCE COMPARISON OF SCENARIO-GENERATION METHODS APPLIED TO A STOCHASTIC OPTIMIZATION ASSET-LIABILITY MANAGEMENT MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alan Delgado de Oliveira

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT In this paper, we provide an empirical discussion of the differences among some scenario tree-generation approaches for stochastic programming. We consider the classical Monte Carlo sampling and Moment matching methods. Moreover, we test the Resampled average approximation, which is an adaptation of Monte Carlo sampling and Monte Carlo with naive allocation strategy as the benchmark. We test the empirical effects of each approach on the stability of the problem objective function and initial portfolio allocation, using a multistage stochastic chance-constrained asset-liability management (ALM model as the application. The Moment matching and Resampled average approximation are more stable than the other two strategies.

  10. Environmental impacts of irrigated and rain-fed barley production in Iran using life cycle assessment (LCA)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Houshyar, E.

    2017-07-01

    Current intensive grain crops production is often associated with environmental burdens. However, very few studies deal with the environmental performance of both current and alternative systems of barley production. This study was undertaken to evaluate energy consumption and environmental impacts of irrigated and rain-fed barley production. Additionally, three alternative scenarios were examined for irrigated barley fields including conservation tillage and biomass utilization policies. The findings showed that around 25 GJ/ha energy is needed in order to produce 2300 kg/ha irrigated barley and 13 GJ/ha for 1100 kg/ha rain-fed barley. Life cycle assessment (LCA) results indicated that irrigated farms had more environmental impacts than rain-fed farms. Electricity generation and consumption had the highest effect on the abiotic depletion potential, human toxicity potential, freshwater and marine aquatic ecotoxicity potential. However, alternative scenarios revealed that using soil conservation tillage systems and biomass consumption vs. gas for electricity generation at power plants can significantly mitigate environmental impacts of irrigated barley production similar to the rain-fed conditions while higher yield is obtained.

  11. Environmental impacts of irrigated and rain-fed barley production in Iran using life cycle assessment (LCA)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Houshyar, E.

    2017-01-01

    Current intensive grain crops production is often associated with environmental burdens. However, very few studies deal with the environmental performance of both current and alternative systems of barley production. This study was undertaken to evaluate energy consumption and environmental impacts of irrigated and rain-fed barley production. Additionally, three alternative scenarios were examined for irrigated barley fields including conservation tillage and biomass utilization policies. The findings showed that around 25 GJ/ha energy is needed in order to produce 2300 kg/ha irrigated barley and 13 GJ/ha for 1100 kg/ha rain-fed barley. Life cycle assessment (LCA) results indicated that irrigated farms had more environmental impacts than rain-fed farms. Electricity generation and consumption had the highest effect on the abiotic depletion potential, human toxicity potential, freshwater and marine aquatic ecotoxicity potential. However, alternative scenarios revealed that using soil conservation tillage systems and biomass consumption vs. gas for electricity generation at power plants can significantly mitigate environmental impacts of irrigated barley production similar to the rain-fed conditions while higher yield is obtained.

  12. Power Generation Expansion Optimization Model Considering Multi-Scenario Electricity Demand Constraints: A Case Study of Zhejiang Province, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng Wang

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Reasonable and effective power planning contributes a lot to energy efficiency improvement, as well as the formulation of future economic and energy policies for a region. Since only a few provinces in China have nuclear power plants so far, nuclear power plants were not considered in many provincial-level power planning models. As an extremely important source of power generation in the future, the role of nuclear power plants can never be overlooked. In this paper, a comprehensive and detailed optimization model of provincial-level power generation expansion considering biomass and nuclear power plants is established from the perspective of electricity demand uncertainty. This model has been successfully applied to the case study of Zhejiang Province. The findings suggest that the nuclear power plants will contribute 9.56% of the total installed capacity, and it will become the second stable electricity source. The lowest total discounted cost is 1033.28 billion RMB and the fuel cost accounts for a large part of the total cost (about 69%. Different key performance indicators (KPI differentiate electricity demand in scenarios that are used to test the model. Low electricity demand in the development mode of the comprehensive adjustment scenario (COML produces the optimal power development path, as it provides the lowest discounted cost.

  13. A life cycle multi-objective economic and environmental assessment of distributed generation in buildings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Safaei, Amir; Freire, Fausto; Henggeler Antunes, Carlos

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A lifecycle optimization model for distributed energy systems is developed. • Model estimates costs and environmental impacts of meeting the building energy demand. • Design and operating strategies to reduce costs and environmental impacts are discussed. • Pareto frontiers of costs vis-à-vis environmental impacts are presented. • Distributed generation can reduce the environmental impacts of the building sector. - Abstract: Distributed generation, namely cogeneration and solar technologies, is expected to play an important role in the future energy supply mix in buildings. This calls for a methodological framework to assess the economic and environmental performance of the building sector when such technologies are employed. A life-cycle model has been developed, combining distributed generation and conventional sources to calculate the cost and environmental impacts of meeting the building energy demand over a defined planning period. Three type of cogeneration technologies, solar photovoltaic and thermal, as well as conventional boilers along with the Portuguese electricity generation mix comprise the energy systems modeled. Pareto optimal frontiers are derived, showing the trade-offs between different types of impacts (non-renewable cumulative energy demand, greenhouse gas emissions, acidification, eutrophication) and cost to meet the energy demand of a commercial building. Our analysis shows that according to the objective to employ distributed generation (reducing cost or environmental impacts), a specific design and operational strategy for the energy systems shall be adopted. The strategies to minimize each type of impact and the associated cost trade-offs by exploring the solutions located on the Pareto optimal frontiers are discussed

  14. The new socio-economic scenarios for climate change research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guivarch, C.; Rozenberg, J.

    2013-01-01

    The scientific community is developing a new generation of scenarios to inform the choices we have to make when it comes to responding to climate change. This new generation of scenarios integrates more fully the mechanisms that regulate climate and provides insights to spatial and temporal resolutions unexplored in previous exercises. In addition, it gives a framework for integrating explicit climate policies for mitigation and adaptation, which allows assessing the benefits and costs of climate policies in different socio-economic scenarios. Finally, it introduces a new way of working that strengthens the collaboration between different research communities on climate change. (authors)

  15. Ranking of biomass pellets by integration of economic, environmental and technical factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sultana, Arifa; Kumar, Amit

    2012-01-01

    Interest in biomass as a renewable energy source has increased recently in response to a need to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The objective of this study is to develop a multi-criteria assessment model and rank different biomass feedstock-based pellets, in terms of their suitability for use in large heat and power generation plants and show the importance of environmental, economical and technical factors in making decision about different pellets. Five pellet alternatives, each produced from a different sustainable biomass feedstock i.e., wood, straw, switchgrass, alfalfa and poultry litter, are ranked according to eleven criteria, using the Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment and Evaluation (PROMETHEE). Both quantitative and qualitative criteria are considered, including environmental, technical and economic factors. Three scenarios, namely base case, environmental and economic, are developed by changing the weight assigned to different criteria. In the base case scenario, equal weights are assigned to each criterion. In the economic and environmental scenarios, more weight is given to the economic and environmental factors, respectively. Based on the PROMETHEE rankings, wood pellets are the best source of energy for all scenarios followed by switchgrass, straw, poultry litter and alfalfa pellets except economic scenario, where straw pellets held higher position than switchgrass pellets. Sensitivity analysis on weights, threshold values, preference function and production cost indicate that the ranking was stable. The ranking in all scenarios remained same when qualitative criteria were omitted from the model; this indicates the stronger influence of quantitative criteria. -- Highlights: ► This study ranks the pellets produced from different biomass feedstocks. ► The ranking of the pellets is based on technical, economical and environmental factors. ► This study uses PROMETHEE method for ranking pellets based on a range of

  16. Methodology for the development of scenarios for the evaluation of the behaviour of a deep geological repository for high-level radioactive waste in a granite formation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cortes Martin, A.; Alonso, J.; Gonzalez, E.

    1996-01-01

    In time, deep geological repositories for radioactive waste undergo significant environmental changes caused either by natural processes or by human actions. In view of a long-term safety analysis, it is fundamental to identify all the possible evolutions of the system. This process is denominated scenario development. This paper deals with the methodology used to generate scenarios within the framework of the AGP (Deep Geological Repository) project for assessing behaviour in granite medium. It begins with a brief description of the methodology used to identify the relevant factors for the safety analysis on the system. It then presents the details of the actual scenario-generating methodology which consists of dividing the entire system into barrier states or subsystems a graphic procedure by means of which the factors are represented in relation to their predictable impact or extent of their effect on the subsystems. This methodology is a good tool for displaying and grouping the most significant scenarios for the subsequent analysis of consequences. (Author)

  17. Effects of new environmental regulations on coal-fired generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    LaCount, R.

    1999-01-01

    As restructuring of the electricity industry places downward pressure on power production costs, new environmental regulations are having the opposite effect. Although power plants may be subject to a variety of environmental regulations over the next ten years including reductions in mercury, toxics, and carbon dioxide, new regulations for sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOX) are poised to impact the electricity industry in the very short term. The cost for coal-fired power plants to comply with these new regulations has the potential to alter their competitive position. January 1, 2000 marks the beginning of Phase II for the Environmental Protection Agency's SO2 allowance market. Starting in January, all coal and oil plants above 25 MW will be required to comply with the federal SO2 provisions. Regulatory deadlines for NOX are also fast approaching; though the ultimate requirements are still subject to change. On May 1, 1999, a NOX allowance market began for states within the Northeast Ozone Transport Commission (OTC). A second phase of this program is scheduled to begin in 2003 that will lower the overall cap for allowable NOX emissions in the participating states. EPA is also working to expand the reach of regional NOX reductions in 2003 through its NOX SIP call. This program, which is currently subject to litigation, would require NOX reductions in 14 states outside of the OTC. A new study by Resource Data International (RDI), Coal-Fired Generation in Competitive Power Markets, assessed the potential impact that the new SO2 and NOX regulations may have on the competitiveness of coal-fired generation. Overall, the study shows that coal-fired generation will continue to grow despite significant environmental costs and competition from natural gas-fired units. The new environmental regulations have the effect of increasing the dispatch cost of coal-fired units from $0.65/MWh on average in the WSCC to $4.14/MWh on average in the MAAC region. The addition

  18. Intensity earthquake scenario (scenario event - a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence) for the city of Sofia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aleksandrova, Irena; Simeonova, Stela; Solakov, Dimcho; Popova, Maria

    2014-05-01

    Among the many kinds of natural and man-made disasters, earthquakes dominate with regard to their social and economical impact on the urban environment. Global seismic risk to earthquakes are increasing steadily as urbanization and development occupy more areas that a prone to effects of strong earthquakes. Additionally, the uncontrolled growth of mega cities in highly seismic areas around the world is often associated with the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, and undertaken with an insufficient knowledge of the regional seismicity peculiarities and seismic hazard. The assessment of seismic hazard and generation of earthquake scenarios is the first link in the prevention chain and the first step in the evaluation of the seismic risk. The earthquake scenarios are intended as a basic input for developing detailed earthquake damage scenarios for the cities and can be used in earthquake-safe town and infrastructure planning. The city of Sofia is the capital of Bulgaria. It is situated in the centre of the Sofia area that is the most populated (the population is of more than 1.2 mil. inhabitants), industrial and cultural region of Bulgaria that faces considerable earthquake risk. The available historical documents prove the occurrence of destructive earthquakes during the 15th-18th centuries in the Sofia zone. In 19th century the city of Sofia has experienced two strong earthquakes: the 1818 earthquake with epicentral intensity I0=8-9 MSK and the 1858 earthquake with I0=9-10 MSK. During the 20th century the strongest event occurred in the vicinity of the city of Sofia is the 1917 earthquake with MS=5.3 (I0=7-8 MSK). Almost a century later (95 years) an earthquake of moment magnitude 5.6 (I0=7-8 MSK) hit the city of Sofia, on May 22nd, 2012. In the present study as a deterministic scenario event is considered a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence that could affect the city with intensity less than or equal to VIII

  19. Economic and Ecological Consequences of Four European Land Use Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eickhout, B.; Meijl, van H.; Tabeau, A.A.; Rheenen, van T.

    2007-01-01

    The impact of globalization on trade, production and land use is key to the Doha development round. This paper deals with the complex interaction between agricultural trade, production, land-use change and environmental consequences on the basis of four different scenarios. In these scenarios, major

  20. Assessment of air quality benefits from national air pollution control policies in China. Part I: Background, emission scenarios and evaluation of meteorological predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Litao; Jang, Carey; Zhang, Yang; Wang, Kai; Zhang, Qiang; Streets, David; Fu, Joshua; Lei, Yu; Schreifels, Jeremy; He, Kebin; Hao, Jiming; Lam, Yun-Fat; Lin, Jerry; Meskhidze, Nicholas; Voorhees, Scott; Evarts, Dale; Phillips, Sharon

    2010-09-01

    Under the 11th Five Year Plan (FYP, 2006-2010) for national environmental protection by the Chinese government, the overarching goal for sulfur dioxide (SO 2) controls is to achieve a total national emissions level of SO 2 in 2010 10% lower than the level in 2005. A similar nitrogen oxides (NO x) emissions control plan is currently under development and could be enforced during the 12th FYP (2011-2015). In this study, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S.EPA)'s Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (Models-3/CMAQ) modeling system was applied to assess the air quality improvement that would result from the targeted SO 2 and NO x emission controls in China. Four emission scenarios — the base year 2005, the 2010 Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario, the 2010 SO 2 control scenario, and the 2010 NO x control scenario—were constructed and simulated to assess the air quality change from the national control plan. The Fifth-Generation NCAR/Penn State Mesoscale Model (MM5) was applied to generate the meteorological fields for the CMAQ simulations. In this Part I paper, the model performance for the simulated meteorology was evaluated against observations for the base case in terms of temperature, wind speed, wind direction, and precipitation. It is shown that MM5 model gives an overall good performance for these meteorological variables. The generated meteorological fields are acceptable for using in the CMAQ modeling.

  1. Life cycle assessment of four municipal solid waste management scenarios in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong Jinglan; Li Xiangzhi; Zhaojie Cui

    2010-01-01

    A life cycle assessment was carried out to estimate the environmental impact of municipal solid waste. Four scenarios mostly used in China were compared to assess the influence of various technologies on environment: (1) landfill, (2) incineration, (3) composting plus landfill, and (4) composting plus incineration. In all scenarios, the technologies significantly contribute to global warming and increase the adverse impact of non-carcinogens on the environment. The technologies played only a small role in the impact of carcinogens, respiratory inorganics, terrestrial ecotoxicity, and non-renewable energy. Similarly, the influence of the technologies on the way other elements affect the environment was ignorable. Specifically, the direct emissions from the operation processes involved played an important role in most scenarios except for incineration, while potential impact generated from transport, infrastructure and energy consumption were quite small. In addition, in the global warming category, highest potential impact was observed in landfill because of the direct methane gas emissions. Electricity recovery from methane gas was the key factor for reducing the potential impact of global warming. Therefore, increasing the use of methane gas to recover electricity is highly recommended to reduce the adverse impact of landfills on the environment.

  2. Incorporating environmental externalities into the capacity expansion planning: An Israeli case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Becker, Nir; Soloveitchik, David; Olshansky, Moshe

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → Long term energy-environmental planning problems for the electricity sector. → Environmental considerations in the capacity expansion plan. → Modified version of WASP-IV as a multiple objective programming model. → Multi-objective analysis of trade-offs between costs and pollutants reduction. -- Abstract: In this paper we use the WASP-IV model and develop methodology to estimate the impact of several environmental externality costs on the electricity sector development plan. For this purpose, 22 cases were generated which were later on reduced to only seven non-dominated cases by considering this problem as a dynamic multiple objective programming model. The major impact of internalizing the external cost is on fuel use. In the electricity generation system more natural gas and less coal has been used. A cost benefit analysis (CBA) of three scenarios has been performed focusing on taxing only one pollutant while looking at its overall implication. The benefit cost ratio was about 4.5 while the net benefit was about 200 million USD (depending on the scenario). Multi-objective analysis among the different scenarios was carried in a dynamic setting. Seven scenarios appear in the non-dominated set. Out of them five appears in every year and those should have a higher weight placed on them by policy makers. Out of those five, two are a single tax on one pollutant. Thus, policy makers might want to consider a mixture of taxes but for the sake of simplicity can also use a simple one tax on a given pollutant.

  3. Power generation from chemically cleaned coals: do environmental benefits of firing cleaner coal outweigh environmental burden of cleaning?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ryberg, Morten W.; Owsianiak, Mikolaj; Laurent, Alexis

    2015-01-01

    Power generation from high-ash coals is a niche technology for power generation, but coal cleaning is deemed necessary to avoid problems associated with low combustion efficiencies and to minimize environmental burdens associated with emissions of pollutants originating from ash. Here, chemical...... beneficiation of coals using acid and alkali–acid leaching procedures is evaluated as a potential coal cleaning technology employing life cycle assessment (LCA). Taking into account the environmental benefits from firing cleaner coal in pulverized coal power plants and the environmental burden of the cleaning...... itself, it is demonstrated that for a wide range of cleaning procedures and types of coal, chemical cleaning generally performs worse than combustion of the raw coals and physical cleaning using dense medium separation. These findings apply for many relevant impact categories, including climate change...

  4. Scenarios for Ecosystem Services: An Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen R. Carpenter

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA scenarios address changes in ecosystem services and their implications for human well-being. Ecological changes pose special challenges for long-term thinking, because of the possibility of regime shifts that occur rapidly yet alter the availability of ecosystem services for generations. Moreover, ecological feedbacks can intensify human modification of ecosystems, creating a spiral of poverty and ecosystem degradation. Such complex dynamics were evaluated by a mixture of qualitative and quantitative analyses in the MA scenarios. Collectively, the scenarios explore problems such as the connections of poverty reduction and ecosystem services, and trade-offs among ecosystem services. Several promising approaches are considered by the scenarios, including uses of biodiversity to build resilience of ecosystem services, actively adaptive management, and green technology. Although the scenarios do not prescribe an optimal path, they illuminate the consequences of different policies toward ecosystem services.

  5. Consideration of environmental change in the safety evaluation: Long-term climate scenarios in the Iberian Peninsula

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Recreo Jimenez, F.; Ruiz Rivas, C.

    1997-01-01

    The main objective of this report is twofold. On the one hand, to define the most likely sequences of climate states in the Iberian Peninsula for a period of 125 Ka into the future, to the next interglacial stage, 125 Ka AP; on the other hand, to establish potential climate scenarios during such a period of time determining also the variability ranges of primary climate and climate-related variables of interest to the post-closure performance assessment and underground repository safety evaluations. The report reviews the potential effects of environmental changes on the performance of underground radioactive waste repositories, emphasizing the consideration given to long-term climatic changes in radioactive waste disposal system safety evaluations. (Author)

  6. Alternative energy and distributed generation: thinking generations ahead

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunt, P.D.

    2001-01-01

    Alternative Energy will be discussed in the context of Distributed Generation, which is defined as a delivery platform for micro-power generation, close to the end-users, that can also supplement regional electricity grids. Many references in the paper pertain to Alberta. This is for two reasons: First, familiarity by the author, and more importantly, Alberta is the first region in Canada that has de-regulated it's electricity sector. De-regulation allows independent and smaller power generators to enter the market. Focussing on Alberta, with some references to other Canadian provinces and USA, electricity consumption trends will be reviewed and the pressures to decentralize electricity generation discussed. Re-structuring of the electricity sector, convergence of power generation and natural gas industries, advances in technologies, and environmental concerns are collectively contributing to the creation of a new business called 'Distributed Generation'. Efficiency benefits of combined heat and power associated with the more prominent emerging distributed generation technologies like micro-turbines and fuel cells, will be highlighted. Areas of research, development and demonstration that will enable the successful deployment of Distributed Generation will be suggested with respect to Generation Technologies, Systems Controls, Supporting Infrastructure, and Socio-Political Barriers. Estimates of investments in the various alternative energy technologies will be presented. Using current trends and emerging technologies the Paper will conclude with some predictions of future scenarios. (author)

  7. Scenario analysis of the new energy policy for Taiwan's electricity sector until 2025

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Fung-Fei; Chou, Seng-Cho; Lu, Tai-Ken

    2013-01-01

    For this study, we constructed the following three case scenarios based on the Taiwanese government's energy policy: a normal scenario, the 2008 “Sustainable Energy Policy Convention” scenario, and the 2011 “New Energy Policy” scenario. We then employed a long-term Generation Expansion Planning (GEP) optimization model to compare the three case scenarios' energy mix for power generation for the next å15 years to further explore their possible impact on the electricity sector. The results provide a reference for forming future energy policies and developing strategic responses. - Highlights: • We constructed three case scenarios based on the Taiwan government's energy policy. • We employed a long-term Generation Expansion Planning optimization model. • A significant gap exists between the carbon reduction target and baseline. • The carbon reduction target requires a holistic resolution needed taking seriously

  8. Optimization of environmental management strategies through a dynamic stochastic possibilistic multiobjective program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Xiaodong, E-mail: xiaodong.zhang@beg.utexas.edu [Bureau of Economic Geology, Jackson School of Geosciences, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78713 (United States); Huang, Gordon [Institute of Energy, Environment and Sustainable Communities, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada)

    2013-02-15

    Highlights: ► A dynamic stochastic possibilistic multiobjective programming model is developed. ► Greenhouse gas emission control is considered. ► Three planning scenarios are analyzed and compared. ► Optimal decision schemes under three scenarios and different p{sub i} levels are obtained. ► Tradeoffs between economics and environment are reflected. -- Abstract: Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from municipal solid waste (MSW) management facilities have become a serious environmental issue. In MSW management, not only economic objectives but also environmental objectives should be considered simultaneously. In this study, a dynamic stochastic possibilistic multiobjective programming (DSPMP) model is developed for supporting MSW management and associated GHG emission control. The DSPMP model improves upon the existing waste management optimization methods through incorporation of fuzzy possibilistic programming and chance-constrained programming into a general mixed-integer multiobjective linear programming (MOP) framework where various uncertainties expressed as fuzzy possibility distributions and probability distributions can be effectively reflected. Two conflicting objectives are integrally considered, including minimization of total system cost and minimization of total GHG emissions from waste management facilities. Three planning scenarios are analyzed and compared, representing different preferences of the decision makers for economic development and environmental-impact (i.e. GHG-emission) issues in integrated MSW management. Optimal decision schemes under three scenarios and different p{sub i} levels (representing the probability that the constraints would be violated) are generated for planning waste flow allocation and facility capacity expansions as well as GHG emission control. The results indicate that economic and environmental tradeoffs can be effectively reflected through the proposed DSPMP model. The generated decision variables can help

  9. Phenomena identification and ranking tables for Westinghouse AP600 small break loss-of-coolant accident, main steam line break, and steam generator tube rupture scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, G.E.; Fletcher, C.D.; Davis, C.B.

    1997-06-01

    This report revision incorporates new experimental evidence regarding AP600 behavior during small break loss-of-coolant accidents. This report documents the results of Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT) efforts for the Westinghouse AP600 reactor. The purpose of this PIRT is to identify important phenomena so that they may be addressed in both the experimental programs and the RELAP5/MOD3 systems analysis computer code. In Revision of this report, the responses of AP600 during small break loss-of-coolant accident, main steam line break, and steam generator tube rupture accident scenarios were evaluated by a committee of thermal-hydraulic experts. Committee membership included Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory staff and recognized thermal-hydraulic experts from outside of the laboratory. Each of the accident scenarios was subdivided into separate, sequential periods or phases. Within each phase, the plant behavior is controlled by, at most, a few thermal-hydraulic processes. The committee identified the phenomena influencing those processes, and ranked ampersand influences as being of high, medium, low, or insignificant importance. The primary product of this effort is a series of tables, one for each phase of each accident scenario, describing the thermal-hydraulic phenomena judged by the committee to be important, and the relative ranking of that importance. The rationales for the phenomena selected and their rankings are provided. This document issue incorporates an update of the small break loss-of-coolant accident portion of the report. This revision is the result of the release of experimental evidence from AP600-related integral test facilities (ROSA/AP600, OSU, and SPES) and thermal-hydraulic expert review. The activities associated with this update were performed during the period from June 1995 through November 1996. 8 refs., 26 figs., 42 tabs

  10. Phenomena identification and ranking tables for Westinghouse AP600 small break loss-of-coolant accident, main steam line break, and steam generator tube rupture scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilson, G.E.; Fletcher, C.D.; Davis, C.B. [and others

    1997-06-01

    This report revision incorporates new experimental evidence regarding AP600 behavior during small break loss-of-coolant accidents. This report documents the results of Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT) efforts for the Westinghouse AP600 reactor. The purpose of this PIRT is to identify important phenomena so that they may be addressed in both the experimental programs and the RELAP5/MOD3 systems analysis computer code. In Revision of this report, the responses of AP600 during small break loss-of-coolant accident, main steam line break, and steam generator tube rupture accident scenarios were evaluated by a committee of thermal-hydraulic experts. Committee membership included Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory staff and recognized thermal-hydraulic experts from outside of the laboratory. Each of the accident scenarios was subdivided into separate, sequential periods or phases. Within each phase, the plant behavior is controlled by, at most, a few thermal-hydraulic processes. The committee identified the phenomena influencing those processes, and ranked & influences as being of high, medium, low, or insignificant importance. The primary product of this effort is a series of tables, one for each phase of each accident scenario, describing the thermal-hydraulic phenomena judged by the committee to be important, and the relative ranking of that importance. The rationales for the phenomena selected and their rankings are provided. This document issue incorporates an update of the small break loss-of-coolant accident portion of the report. This revision is the result of the release of experimental evidence from AP600-related integral test facilities (ROSA/AP600, OSU, and SPES) and thermal-hydraulic expert review. The activities associated with this update were performed during the period from June 1995 through November 1996. 8 refs., 26 figs., 42 tabs.

  11. KOVEC studies of radioisotope thermoelectric generator response (In connection with possible NASA space shuttle accident explosion scenarios)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walton, J.; Weston, A.; Lee, E.

    1984-06-26

    The Department of Energy (DOE) commissioned a study leading to a final report (NUS-4543, Report of the Shuttle Transportation System (STS) Explosion Working Group (EWG), June 8, 1984), concerned with PuO/sub 2/ dispersal should the NASA space shuttle explode during the proposed Galileo and ISPN launches planned for 1986. At DOE's request, LLNL furnished appendices that describe hydrocode KOVEC calculations of potential damage to the Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators, fueled by PuO/sub 2/, should certain explosion scenarios occur. These appendices are contained in this report.

  12. Assessing Threat Detection Scenarios through Hypothesis Generation and Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Publications. Field, A. (2005). Discovering statistics using SPSS (2nd ed.). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications. Fisher, S. D., Gettys, C. F...therefore, subsequent F statistics are reported using the Huynh-Feldt correction (Greenhouse-Geisser Epsilon > .775). Experienced and inexperienced...change in hypothesis using experience and initial confidence as predictors. In the Dog Day scenario, the regression was not statistically

  13. Evaluating options for sustainable energy mixes in South Korea using scenario analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong, Sanghyun; Bradshaw, Corey J.A.; Brook, Barry W.

    2013-01-01

    To mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, coal-fired electricity infrastructure needs to be replaced by low-carbon electricity generation options. Here we examine a range of possible alternative scenarios for sustainable electricity generation in South Korea, considering both physical and economic limits of current technologies. The results show that South Korea cannot achieve a 100% renewable energy mix and requires at least 55 GW of backup capacity. Given that constraint, we modelled seven scenarios: (i) the present condition, (ii) the First National Electricity Plan configuration, (iii) renewable energy (including 5 GW photovoltaic) with fuel cells or (iv) natural gas backup, (v) maximum renewable energy (including 75 GW photovoltaic) with natural gas, (vi) maximum nuclear power, and (vii) nuclear power with natural gas. We then quantify levelised cost of electricity, energy security, greenhouse gas emissions, fresh water consumption, heated water discharge, land transformation, air pollutant emissions, radioactive waste disposal, solid waste disposal and safety issues for each modelled mix. Our analysis shows that the maximum nuclear power scenario yields the fewest overall negative impacts, and the maximum renewable energy scenario with fuel cells would have the highest negative impacts. - Highlights: ► Due to physical limits of renewable sources, renewable energy cannot provide total electricity consumption in South Korea. ► A massive expansion of solar power will act to save only a small amount of backup fuel at greatly increased costs. ► A huge supply of natural gas capacity is essential, due to the absence of feasible large-scale energy storage. ► A pathway to maximize renewable energy causes more environmental and economic disadvantages than the status quo. ► Maximizing nuclear power is the most sustainable option for South Korea

  14. Assessing the environmental sustainability of electricity generation in Chile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaete-Morales, Carlos; Gallego-Schmid, Alejandro; Stamford, Laurence; Azapagic, Adisa

    2018-09-15

    Around 40% of electricity in Chile is supplied by renewables and the rest by fossil fuels. Despite the growing electricity demand in the country, its environmental impacts are as yet unknown. To address this gap, the current study presents the first comprehensive assessment of the life cycle environmental sustainability of electricity generation in Chile. Both the individual sources and the electricity mix over the past 10 years are considered. The following sources present in the electricity mix are evaluated: coal, oil, natural gas, biogas, biomass, wind, solar photovoltaics (PV) and hydropower. In total, 10 electricity technologies and 174 power plants installed across the country have been considered. Eleven environmental impacts have been estimated, including global warming, human toxicity, ecotoxicities, as well as resource and ozone layer depletion. The results reveal that hydropower is environmentally the most sustainable option across the impacts, followed by onshore wind and biogas. Electricity from natural gas has 10%-84% lower impacts than biomass for seven categories. It is also 13%-98% better than solar PV for six impacts and 17%-66% than wind for four categories. Solar PV has the highest abiotic depletion potential due to the use of scarce elements in the manufacture of panels. While electricity generation has grown by 44% in the past 10 years, all the impacts except ozone layer depletion have increased by 1.6-2.7 times. In the short term, environmental regulations should be tightened to improve the emissions control from coal and biomass plants. In the medium term, the contribution of renewables should be ramped up, primarily increasing the hydro, wind and biogas capacity. Coal and oil should be phased out, using natural gas as a transitional fuel to help the stability of the grid with the increasing contribution of intermittent renewables. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Participatory scenario development for integrated assessment of nutrient flows in a Catalan river catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Caille

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Rivers in developed regions are under significant stress due to nutrient enrichment generated mainly by human activities. Excess nitrogen and phosphorus emissions are the product of complex dynamic systems influenced by various factors such as demographic, socio-economic and technological development. Using a Catalan river catchment, La Tordera (North-East of Spain, as a case study of an integrated and interdisciplinary environmental assessment of nutrient flows, we present and discuss the development of narrative socio-economic scenarios through a participatory process for the sustainable management of the anthropogenic sources of nutrients, nitrogen and phosphorus. In this context, scenarios are an appropriate tool to assist nutrient emissions modelling, and to assess impacts, possible pathways for socio-economic development and associated uncertainties. Evaluated against the 1993–2003 baseline period, scenarios target the 2030 horizon, i.e. through the implementation process of the Water Framework Directive (Directive 2000/60/EC. After a critical examination of the methodology used in the participatory development of socio-economic scenarios, we present four possible futures (or perspectives for the Catalan river catchment conceived by stakeholders invited to a workshop. Keys to the success of such a participatory process were trust, which enhanced openness, and disagreements, which fostered the group's creativity for scenario development. The translation of narrative socio-economic scenarios into meaningful nutrient emission scenarios is also discussed. By integrating findings of natural sciences and socio-economic analysis, we aim to assist decision makers and stakeholders in evaluating optimal management strategies for the anthropogenic sources of nitrogen and phosphorus.

  16. Fuel prices scenario generation based on a multivariate GARCH model for risk analysis in a wholesale electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Batlle, C.; Barquin, J.

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents a fuel prices scenario generator in the frame of a simulation tool developed to support risk analysis in a competitive electricity environment. The tool feeds different erogenous risk factors to a wholesale electricity market model to perform a statistical analysis of the results. As the different fuel series that are studied, such as the oil or gas ones, present stochastic volatility and strong correlation among them, a multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (GARCH) model has been designed in order to allow the generation of future fuel prices paths. The model makes use of a decomposition method to simplify the consideration of the multidimensional conditional covariance. An example of its application with real data is also presented. (author)

  17. Special Operations Reconnaissance (SOR) Scenario: Intelligence Analysis and Mission Planning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Warner, Norman; Burkman, Lisa; Biron, H. C

    2008-01-01

    ...) scenario and the methodology used to generate and validate the scenario. The face of military team collaboration has changed due to gathering intelligence from broader and more diverse sources...

  18. Automatic generation control of TCPS based hydrothermal system under open market scenario: A fuzzy logic approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rao, C. Srinivasa [EEE Department, G. Pulla Reddy Engineering College, Kurnool, Andhra Pradesh (India); Nagaraju, S. Siva [EEE Department, J.N.T.U College of Engg., Kakinada, Andhra Pradesh (India); Raju, P. Sangameswara [EEE Department, S.V. University, Tirupati, Andhra Pradesh (India)

    2009-09-15

    This paper presents the analysis of automatic generation control of a two-area interconnected thyristor controlled phase shifter based hydrothermal system in the continuous mode using fuzzy logic controller under open market scenario. Open transmission access and the evolving of more socialized companies for generation, transmission and distribution affects the formulation of AGC problem. So the traditional AGC two-area system is modified to take into account the effect of bilateral contracts on the dynamics. It is possible to stabilize the system frequency and tie-power oscillations by controlling the phase angle of TCPS which is expected to provide a new ancillary service for the future power systems. A control strategy using TCPS is proposed to provide active control of system frequency. Further dynamic responses for small perturbation considering fuzzy logic controller and PI controller (dual mode controller) have been observed and the superior performance of fuzzy logic controller has been reported analytically and also through simulation. (author)

  19. Emerging environmental technologies and environmental technology policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clarke, Leon Edward

    This dissertation explores the role and design of environmental technology policy when environmental innovation is embodied in emerging environmental technologies such as photovoltaic cells or fuel cells. The dissertation consists of three individual studies, all of which use a simplified, general model industry between an emerging environmental technology and an entrenched, more-polluting technology. It clarifies the situations in which environmental technology policy can achieve high welfare and those in which it cannot; and it separates the possible situations an emerging environmental technology might face into four scenarios, each with its own technology policy recommendations. The second study attempts to clarify which of two factors is having a larger limiting effect on private investment in photovoltaics: the failure to internalize the environmental costs of fossil fuel electricity generation or a broad set of innovation market failures that apply to innovation irrespective of environmental concerns. The study indicates that innovation market failures are probably having a significantly larger impact than incomplete internalization. The third study explores the effectiveness of adoption subsidies at encouraging private-sector innovation. The conclusion is that adoption subsidies probably have only a limited effect on long-term, private-sector research. Two important general conclusions of the dissertation are (1) that optimal technology policy should begin with technology-push measures and end with demand-pull measures; and (2) that the technological response to internalization instruments, such as emissions taxes, may be highly nonlinear.

  20. The role of nuclear power considering environmental impacts in Korea by using DECPAC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moon, K.H.; Song, K.D.; Lee, M.K.; Kim, S.S.; Choi, Y.M.

    1997-01-01

    Global environmental issues have emerged as one of the most important factors to the decision making in the electricity supply sector. As the Framework Convention on Climate Change has become effective since March 1994, various means for C02 emission regulation such as direct control on C02 emission, energy tax, and carbon tax etc. have been discussed on a global level. Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute has joined the DECADES project since 1994 and contributed to improving the DECPAC Software Package. This study was carried out to derive an optimal electric system under the consideration of environmental impact in Korea. In detail, this study assumed two scenarios to examine the role of PWR 130OMW and Coal 80OMW on the ESEP in Korea in terms of an optimal generation mix, system costs, and the volume of pollutant emissions. In Scenario A, PWR 130OMW was permitted as a candidate after the year 2001, while Coal 80OMW was allowed as a candidate after the year 2001 in Scenario B. The results from the DECPAC Software Package were summarized as follows: In terms of the electrical installed capacities, Scenario A showed that 41 % out of total electric capacity was installed by nuclear, 28% by coal, 21 % by combined cycle, and the remaining 10% by hydro and oil, by the end of the year 2010. On the other hand, Scenario B showed that 22% of the total electric capacity was installed by nuclear, 45% by coal, 23% by combined cycle, and the remaining 10% by hydro and oil. In terms of the electricity generation, Scenario A showed that nuclear shared 57% out of total electricity generation and coal shared 33%, by the end of the year 2010. The situation is reversed in Scenario B, showing that nuclear shared 31% and coal shared 57%. In terms of total system costs, Scenario A, which was nuclear dominant system, showed relative advantages over Scenario B, which was coal dominant system. Finally, there was a great gap between the two scenarios in producing pollutant emissions. It

  1. Large Ensemble Analytic Framework for Consequence-Driven Discovery of Climate Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamontagne, Jonathan R.; Reed, Patrick M.; Link, Robert; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.

    2018-03-01

    An analytic scenario generation framework is developed based on the idea that the same climate outcome can result from very different socioeconomic and policy drivers. The framework builds on the Scenario Matrix Framework's abstraction of "challenges to mitigation" and "challenges to adaptation" to facilitate the flexible discovery of diverse and consequential scenarios. We combine visual and statistical techniques for interrogating a large factorial data set of 33,750 scenarios generated using the Global Change Assessment Model. We demonstrate how the analytic framework can aid in identifying which scenario assumptions are most tied to user-specified measures for policy relevant outcomes of interest, specifically for our example high or low mitigation costs. We show that the current approach for selecting reference scenarios can miss policy relevant scenario narratives that often emerge as hybrids of optimistic and pessimistic scenario assumptions. We also show that the same scenario assumption can be associated with both high and low mitigation costs depending on the climate outcome of interest and the mitigation policy context. In the illustrative example, we show how agricultural productivity, population growth, and economic growth are most predictive of the level of mitigation costs. Formulating policy relevant scenarios of deeply and broadly uncertain futures benefits from large ensemble-based exploration of quantitative measures of consequences. To this end, we have contributed a large database of climate change futures that can support "bottom-up" scenario generation techniques that capture a broader array of consequences than those that emerge from limited sampling of a few reference scenarios.

  2. Environmental impact of rejected materials generated in organic fraction of municipal solid waste anaerobic digestion plants: Comparison of wet and dry process layout.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colazo, Ana-Belén; Sánchez, Antoni; Font, Xavier; Colón, Joan

    2015-09-01

    Anaerobic digestion of source separated organic fraction of municipal solid waste is an increasing waste valorization alternative instead of incineration or landfilling of untreated biodegradable wastes. Nevertheless, a significant portion of biodegradable wastes entering the plant is lost in pre-treatments and post-treatments of anaerobic digestion facilities together with other improper materials such as plastics, paper, textile materials and metals. The rejected materials lost in these stages have two main implications: (i) less organic material enters to digesters and, as a consequence, there is a loss of biogas production and (ii) the rejected materials end up in landfills or incinerators contributing to environmental impacts such as global warming or eutrophication. The main goals of this study are (i) to estimate potential losses of biogas in the rejected solid materials generated during the pre- and post-treatments of two full-scale anaerobic digestion facilities and (ii) to evaluate the environmental burdens associated to the final disposal (landfill or incineration) of these rejected materials by means of Life Cycle Assessment. This study shows that there is a lost of potential biogas production, ranging from 8% to 15%, due to the loss of organic matter during pre-treatment stages in anaerobic digestion facilities. From an environmental point of view, the Life Cycle Assessment shows that the incineration scenario is the most favorable alternative for eight out of nine impact categories compared with the landfill scenario. The studied impact categories are Climate Change, Fossil depletion, Freshwater eutrophication, Marine eutrophication, Ozone depletion, Particulate matter formation, Photochemical oxidant formation, Terrestrial acidification and Water depletion. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Shell energy scenarios to 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    Shell developed two scenarios that describe alternative ways the energy future may develop. In the first scenario (Scramble) policymakers pay little attention to more efficient energy use until supplies are tight. Likewise, greenhouse gas emissions are not seriously addressed until there are major climate shocks. In the second scenario (Blueprints) growing local actions begin to address the challenges of economic development, energy security and environmental pollution. A price is applied to a critical mass of emissions giving a huge stimulus to the development of clean energy technologies, such as carbon dioxide capture and storage, and energy efficiency measures. The result is far lower carbon dioxide emissions. Both these scenarios can help Shell to test their strategy against a range of possible developments over the long-term. However, according to Shell, the Blueprints' outcomes offer the best hope for a sustainable future, whether or not they arise exactly in the way described. However, with the right combination of policy, technology and commitment from governments, industry and society globally, Shell believes it can be realized. But achieving the targets will not be easy, and time is short. Clear thinking, huge investment, and effective leadership are required

  4. Air quality impacts of distributed power generation in the South Coast Air Basin of California 1: Scenario development and modeling analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, M. A.; Carreras-Sospedra, M.; Medrano, M.; Brouwer, J.; Samuelsen, G. S.; Dabdub, D.

    Distributed generation (DG) is generally defined as the operation of many small stationary power generators throughout an urban air basin. Although DG has the potential to supply a significant portion of the increased power demands in California and the rest of the United States, it may lead to increased levels of in-basin pollutants and adversely impact urban air quality. This study focuses on two main objectives: (1) the systematic characterization of DG installation in urban air basins, and (2) the simulation of potential air quality impacts using a state-of-the-art three-dimensional computational model. A general and systematic approach is devised to construct five realistic and 21 spanning scenarios of DG implementation in the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) of California. Realistic scenarios reflect an anticipated level of DG deployment in the SoCAB by the year 2010. Spanning scenarios are developed to determine the potential impacts of unexpected outcomes. Realistic implementations of DG in the SoCAB result in small differences in ozone and particulate matter concentrations in the basin compared to the baseline simulations. The baseline accounts for population increase, but does not consider any future emissions control measures. Model results for spanning implementations with extra high DG market penetration show that domain-wide ozone peak concentrations increase significantly. Also, air quality impacts of spanning implementations when DG operate during a 6-h period are larger than when the same amount of emissions are introduced during a 24-h period.

  5. Global Water Scarcity Assessment under Post-SRES Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanasaki, N.; Fujimori, S.

    2011-12-01

    A large number of future projections contributed to the fourth Assessment Report of IPCC were based on Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). Processes toward the fifth Assessment Report are under way, and post-SRES scenarios, called Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) are being prepared. One of the key challenges of SSP is provision of detailed socio-economic scenarios compared to SRES for impact, adaptation and vulnerability studies. In this study, a comprehensive global water scarcity assessment was conducted, using a state of the art global water resources model H08 (Hanasaki et al., 2008a, 2008b, 2010). We used a prototype of SSP developed by National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan. Two sets of socio economic scenarios and two sets of climate scenarios were prepared to run H08 for the period 2001-2100. Socio-economic scenarios include Business As Usual and High Mitigation Capacity. Climate scenarios include Reference and Mitigation which stabilizes green house gas concentration at a certain level. We analyzed the simulation results of four combinations, particularly focusing on the sensitivity of socio-economic scenarios to major water resources indices.

  6. From scenarios to domain models: processes and representations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haddock, Gail; Harbison, Karan

    1994-03-01

    The domain specific software architectures (DSSA) community has defined a philosophy for the development of complex systems. This philosophy improves productivity and efficiency by increasing the user's role in the definition of requirements, increasing the systems engineer's role in the reuse of components, and decreasing the software engineer's role to the development of new components and component modifications only. The scenario-based engineering process (SEP), the first instantiation of the DSSA philosophy, has been adopted by the next generation controller project. It is also the chosen methodology of the trauma care information management system project, and the surrogate semi-autonomous vehicle project. SEP uses scenarios from the user to create domain models and define the system's requirements. Domain knowledge is obtained from a variety of sources including experts, documents, and videos. This knowledge is analyzed using three techniques: scenario analysis, task analysis, and object-oriented analysis. Scenario analysis results in formal representations of selected scenarios. Task analysis of the scenario representations results in descriptions of tasks necessary for object-oriented analysis and also subtasks necessary for functional system analysis. Object-oriented analysis of task descriptions produces domain models and system requirements. This paper examines the representations that support the DSSA philosophy, including reference requirements, reference architectures, and domain models. The processes used to create and use the representations are explained through use of the scenario-based engineering process. Selected examples are taken from the next generation controller project.

  7. Efficient renewable energy scenarios study for Victoria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Armstrong, Graham

    1991-01-01

    This study examines the possible evolution of Victorian energy markets over the 1998-2030 period from technical, economic and environmental perspectives. The focus is on the technical and economic potential over the study period for renewable energy and energy efficiency to increase their share of energy markets, through their economic competitiveness with the non-renewables of oil, gas and fossil fulled electricity. The study identifies a range of energy options that have a lower impact on carbon dioxide emissions that current projections for the Victorian energy sector, together with the savings in energy, dollars and carbon dioxide emissions. In addition the macroeconomic implications of the energy paths are estimated. Specifically it examines a scenario (R-efficient renewable) where energy efficiency and renewable energy sources realise their estimated economic potential to displace non-renewable energy over the 1988-2030 period. In addition, a scenario (T-Toronto) is examined where energy markets are pushed somewhat harder, but again on an economic basis, so that what is called the Toronto target of reducing 1988 carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions by 20 per cent by 2005 is attained. It is concluded that over the next forty years there is substantial economic potential in Victoria for significant gains from energy efficiency in all sectors - residential, commercial, industrial and transport - and contributions from renewable energy both in those sectors and in electricity generations. 7 figs., 5 tabs

  8. Scenario Archetypes: Converging Rather than Diverging Themes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon P. Sadler

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Future scenarios provide challenging, plausible and relevant stories about how the future could unfold. Urban Futures (UF research has identified a substantial set (>450 of seemingly disparate scenarios published over the period 1997–2011 and within this research, a sub-set of >160 scenarios has been identified (and categorized based on their narratives according to the structure first proposed by the Global Scenario Group (GSG in 1997; three world types (Business as Usual, Barbarization, and Great Transitions and six scenarios, two for each world type (Policy Reform—PR, Market Forces—MF, Breakdown—B, Fortress World—FW, Eco-Communalism—EC and New Sustainability Paradigm—NSP. It is suggested that four of these scenario archetypes (MF, PR, NSP and FW are sufficiently distinct to facilitate active stakeholder engagement in futures thinking. Moreover they are accompanied by a well-established, internally consistent set of narratives that provide a deeper understanding of the key fundamental drivers (e.g., STEEP—Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political that could bring about realistic world changes through a push or a pull effect. This is testament to the original concept of the GSG scenarios and their development and refinement over a 16 year period.

  9. Bootstrapping the economy -- a non-parametric method of generating consistent future scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Müller, Ulrich A; Bürgi, Roland; Dacorogna, Michel M

    2004-01-01

    The fortune and the risk of a business venture depends on the future course of the economy. There is a strong demand for economic forecasts and scenarios that can be applied to planning and modeling. While there is an ongoing debate on modeling economic scenarios, the bootstrapping (or resampling) approach presented here has several advantages. As a non-parametric method, it directly relies on past market behaviors rather than debatable assumptions on models and parameters. Simultaneous dep...

  10. Predicting the market penetration of the next generation of coal-fired technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guha, M.K.; McCall, G.W.

    1990-01-01

    This paper discusses what role clean coal-fired technology will have in future generating capacity based on availability and prices of coal and natural gas, the nuclear option, environmental regulations, limitations of current air pollution control technologies, and economics. The topics of the paper include the need for new electric generating capacity, why coal must remain a source of energy for generating electricity, technology effectiveness and market penetration analysis methodologies, coal-fired technology economic and technical assumptions, cost estimates, and high and low growth scenarios

  11. Experts dismiss doomsday scenarios for RHIC

    CERN Multimedia

    Levi, B G

    2000-01-01

    A panel of particle physicists examining the possibility that operation of RHIC could generate blackholes or 'strangelets' which would consume ordinary matter, have declared that such scenarios are 'firmly excluded' (1 p).

  12. Byproduct metal requirements for U.S. wind and solar photovoltaic electricity generation up to the year 2040 under various Clean Power Plan scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nassar, Nedal T.; Wilburn, David R.; Goonan, Thomas G.

    2016-01-01

    The United States has and will likely continue to obtain an increasing share of its electricity from solar photovoltaics (PV) and wind power, especially under the Clean Power Plan (CPP). The need for additional solar PV modules and wind turbines will, among other things, result in greater demand for a number of minor metals that are produced mainly or only as byproducts. In this analysis, the quantities of 11 byproduct metals (Ag, Cd, Te, In, Ga, Se, Ge, Nd, Pr, Dy, and Tb) required for wind turbines with rare-earth permanent magnets and four solar PV technologies are assessed through the year 2040. Three key uncertainties (electricity generation capacities, technology market shares, and material intensities) are varied to develop 42 scenarios for each byproduct metal. The results indicate that byproduct metal requirements vary significantly across technologies, scenarios, and over time. In certain scenarios, the requirements are projected to become a significant portion of current primary production. This is especially the case for Te, Ge, Dy, In, and Tb under the more aggressive scenarios of increasing market share and conservative material intensities. Te and Dy are, perhaps, of most concern given their substitution limitations. In certain years, the differences in byproduct metal requirements between the technology market share and material intensity scenarios are greater than those between the various CPP and No CPP scenarios. Cumulatively across years 2016–2040, the various CPP scenarios are estimated to require 15–43% more byproduct metals than the No CPP scenario depending on the specific byproduct metal and scenario. Increasing primary production via enhanced recovery rates of the byproduct metals during the beneficiation and enrichment operations, improving end-of-life recycling rates, and developing substitutes are important strategies that may help meet the increased demand for these byproduct metals.

  13. Environmental degradation costs in electricity generation: The case of the Brazilian electrical matrix

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alves, Laura Araujo; Uturbey, Wadaed

    2010-01-01

    The main purpose of this paper is to emphasize the importance of including environmental degradation costs in the long-term planning of the Brazilian electricity sector. To this aim, environmental external costs associated to both hydro-power and thermal-power electricity generation are investigated. Monetary valuation methodologies are applied and environmental degradation costs, expressed in per kWh of generated energy, are obtained for the main types of generation sources of the Brazilian electricity matrix. Both local pollution due to particulate matter emissions and global warming effects are assessed. A classification of the sources from the point of view of their impact on the environment is given. Degradation costs associated to the installed capacity expansion in the Brazilian electricity sector during the time horizon 2007-2016 are estimated. These resulting costs represent lower boundary damage estimates associated only with the energy to be generated during the period. Results indicate that local pollution caused by a small number of plants could be even more costly to society than global warming and, also, show the importance of considering not only unitary damage costs but the participation of each source on the generated energy during the time horizon, as a guide to planning and policy making.

  14. Environmental cost-effectiveness of bio diesel production in Greece: Current policies and alternative scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iliopoulos, Constantine; Rozakis, Stelios

    2010-01-01

    Following European Directive 2003/30/EC, the Greek Government adapted legislation that introduces and regulates the bio diesel market. The implemented quota scheme allocates the country's annual, predetermined, tax exempt production of bio diesel to industries based on their ability to meet several criteria. A number of bio diesel supply chain stakeholders have criticized this policy for being efficiency-robbing and vague. This paper uses 2007 data from energy crop farms and three bio diesel-producing companies in order to assess these criticisms. We study the economic and environmental aspects of the currently adopted policy and compare them to three alternative scenarios. We conclude that such criticisms have a merit and that policy makers need to reconsider their alternative options regarding the promotion of bio diesel in transport. Permission of sales directly to local consumers and promotion of forward integration by farmers are efficiency enhancing and environment-friendly means of promoting the use of bio diesel in transport.

  15. Synthetic wind speed scenarios generation for probabilistic analysis of hybrid energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Jun; Rabiti, Cristian

    2017-01-01

    Hybrid energy systems consisting of multiple energy inputs and multiple energy outputs have been proposed to be an effective element to enable ever increasing penetration of clean energy. In order to better understand the dynamic and probabilistic behavior of hybrid energy systems, this paper proposes a model combining Fourier series and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) to characterize historical weather measurements and to generate synthetic weather (e.g., wind speed) data. In particular, Fourier series is used to characterize the seasonal trend in historical data, while ARMA is applied to capture the autocorrelation in residue time series (e.g., measurements with seasonal trends subtracted). The generated synthetic wind speed data is then utilized to perform probabilistic analysis of a particular hybrid energy system configuration, which consists of nuclear power plant, wind farm, battery storage, natural gas boiler, and chemical plant. Requirements on component ramping rate, economic and environmental impacts of hybrid energy systems, and the effects of deploying different sizes of batteries in smoothing renewable variability, are all investigated. - Highlights: • Computational model to synthesize artificial wind speed data with consistent characteristics with database. • Fourier series to capture seasonal trends in the database. • Monte Carlo simulation and probabilistic analysis of hybrid energy systems. • Investigation of the effect of battery in smoothing variability of wind power generation.

  16. Thermoelectric generators for efficiency improvement of power generation by motor generatorsEnvironmental and economic perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patyk, Andreas

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► TEGs can save costs and reduce environmental burden in a wide range of conditions. ► Reduction of the environmental burden is still possible under worse conditions. ► Under the same conditions steam expanders produce bigger amounts of electricity. ► Steam expanders are more eco-efficient in the upper performance range. ► TEG production plays only a small role for the overall assessment. -- Abstract: The use of waste heat from exhaust gas of internal combustion engines in power plants and CHP plants is considered a promising application field for thermoelectrics (TE). Some recent studies have provided important knowledge on the energy efficiency of current and future thermoelectric generators (TEGs). The focus of these studies has been primarily on the precise modelling of power units and their operation, i.e., the quantification of power production by TEGs. One of the studies additionally assessed the costs and the CO 2 emissions of fuel combustion, without equipment and fuel supply. Until now, there was no life cycle-related analysis considering TEG and power unit manufacture, environmental impacts beyond climate change and competing technologies for waste heat utilisation. In order to fill this gap, the present study applies the life cycle approach, takes account of a variety of environmental impacts and costs and compares TEGs with the competing steam expander technology. The results show that, under many conditions, TEGs in power units can save energy costs and reduce the environmental burden, i.e., they are eco-efficient. With additional expenditure, energy savings and environmental benefits can be achieved even under disadvantageous conditions. However, in the upper power range the performance of steam expanders in terms of electricity production and eco-efficiency is better. The reduction costs of greenhouse gas emissions and environmental impacts as eco-efficiency indicators show identical patterns. Under reasonable operating

  17. Simulating geometrically complex blast scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian G. Cullis

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The effects of blast waves generated by energetic and non-energetic sources are of continuing interest to the ballistics research community. Modern conflicts are increasingly characterised by asymmetric urban warfare, with improvised explosive devices (IEDs often playing a dominant role on the one hand and an armed forces requirement for minimal collateral effects from their weapons on the other. These problems are characterised by disparate length- and time-scales and may also be governed by complex physics. There is thus an increasing need to be able to rapidly assess and accurately predict the effects of energetic blast in topologically complex scenarios. To this end, this paper presents a new QinetiQ-developed advanced computational package called EAGLE-Blast, which is capable of accurately resolving the generation, propagation and interaction of blast waves around geometrically complex shapes such as vehicles and buildings. After a brief description of the numerical methodology, various blast scenario simulations are described and the results compared with experimental data to demonstrate the validation of the scheme and its ability to describe these complex scenarios accurately and efficiently. The paper concludes with a brief discussion on the use of the code in supporting the development of algorithms for fast running engineering models.

  18. Physical Modeling of Tsunamis Generated By 3D Deformable Landslides in Various Scenarios From Fjords to Conical Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    McFall, B. C.; Fritz, H. M.

    2013-12-01

    Tsunamis generated by landslides and volcano flank collapse can be particularly devastative in the near field region due to locally high wave amplitudes and runup. The events of 1958 Lituya Bay, 1963 Vajont reservoir, 1980 Spirit Lake, 2002 Stromboli and 2010 Haiti demonstrate the danger of tsunamis generated by landslides or volcano flank collapses. Unfortunately critical field data from these events is lacking. Source and runup scenarios based on real world events are physically modeled using generalized Froude similarity in the three dimensional NEES tsunami wave basin at Oregon State University. A novel pneumatic landslide tsunami generator (LTG) was deployed to simulate landslides with varying geometry and kinematics. Two different materials are used to simulate landslides to study the granulometry effects: naturally rounded river gravel and cobble mixtures. The LTG consists of a sliding box filled with 1,350 kg of landslide material which is accelerated by means of four pneumatic pistons down a 2H:1V slope. The landslide is launched from the sliding box and continues to accelerate by gravitational forces up to velocities of 5 m/s. The landslide Froude number at impact with the water is in the range 1 scenarios tested with the LTG are the basin-wide propagation and runup, fjord, curved headland fjord and a conical island setting representing a landslide off an island or a volcano flank collapse. Water surface elevations are recorded by an array of resistance wave gauges. The landslide deformation is measured from above and underwater camera recordings. The landslide deposit is measured on the basin floor with a multiple transducer acoustic array (MTA). Landslide surface reconstruction and kinematics are determined with a stereo particle image velocimetry (PIV) system. Wave runup is recorded with resistance wave gauges along the slope and verified with video image processing. The measured landslide and wave parameters are

  19. Life cycle assessment of four municipal solid waste management scenarios in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Jinglan; Li, Xiangzhi; Zhaojie, Cui

    2010-11-01

    A life cycle assessment was carried out to estimate the environmental impact of municipal solid waste. Four scenarios mostly used in China were compared to assess the influence of various technologies on environment: (1) landfill, (2) incineration, (3) composting plus landfill, and (4) composting plus incineration. In all scenarios, the technologies significantly contribute to global warming and increase the adverse impact of non-carcinogens on the environment. The technologies played only a small role in the impact of carcinogens, respiratory inorganics, terrestrial ecotoxicity, and non-renewable energy. Similarly, the influence of the technologies on the way other elements affect the environment was ignorable. Specifically, the direct emissions from the operation processes involved played an important role in most scenarios except for incineration, while potential impact generated from transport, infrastructure and energy consumption were quite small. In addition, in the global warming category, highest potential impact was observed in landfill because of the direct methane gas emissions. Electricity recovery from methane gas was the key factor for reducing the potential impact of global warming. Therefore, increasing the use of methane gas to recover electricity is highly recommended to reduce the adverse impact of landfills on the environment. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Effect of Moisture Content on Lignocellulosic Power Generation: Energy, Economic and Environmental Impacts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karthik Rajendran

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The moisture content of biomass affects its processing for applications such as electricity or steam. In this study, the effects of variation in moisture content of banagrass and energycane was evaluated using techno-economic analysis and life-cycle assessments. A 25% loss of moisture was assumed as a variation that was achieved by field drying the biomass. Techno-economic analysis revealed that high moisture in the biomass was not economically feasible. Comparing banagrass with energycane, the latter was more economically feasible; thanks to the low moisture and ash content in energycane. About 32 GWh/year of electricity was produced by field drying 60,000 dry MT/year energycane. The investment for different scenarios ranged between $17 million and $22 million. Field-dried energycane was the only economically viable option that recovered the investment after 11 years of operation. This scenario was also more environmentally friendly, releasing 16-gCO2 equivalent/MJ of electricity produced.

  1. Methods for Developing Multiscale Participatory Scenarios: Insights from Southern Africa and Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kok, K.; Biggs, R.; Zurek, M.

    2007-01-01

    Scenario planning is increasingly recognized as a useful tool for exploring change in social-ecological systems on decadal to centennial time horizons. In environmental decision making, scenario development tends to include participatory methods for engaging stakeholders and is conducted at multiple

  2. User's guide for MAGIC-Meteorologic and hydrologic genscn (generate scenarios) input converter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortel, Terry W.; Martin, Angel

    2010-01-01

    Meteorologic and hydrologic data used in watershed modeling studies are collected by various agencies and organizations, and stored in various formats. Data may be in a raw, un-processed format with little or no quality control, or may be checked for validity before being made available. Flood-simulation systems require data in near real-time so that adequate flood warnings can be made. Additionally, forecasted data are needed to operate flood-control structures to potentially mitigate flood damages. Because real-time data are of a provisional nature, missing data may need to be estimated for use in floodsimulation systems. The Meteorologic and Hydrologic GenScn (Generate Scenarios) Input Converter (MAGIC) can be used to convert data from selected formats into the Hydrologic Simulation System-Fortran hourly-observations format for input to a Watershed Data Management database, for use in hydrologic modeling studies. MAGIC also can reformat the data to the Full Equations model time-series format, for use in hydraulic modeling studies. Examples of the application of MAGIC for use in the flood-simulation system for Salt Creek in northeastern Illinois are presented in this report.

  3. Hazardous waste storage facility accident scenarios for the U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Policastro, A.; Roglans-Ribas, J.; Marmer, D.; Lazaro, M.; Mueller, C.; Freeman, W.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents the methods for developing accident categories and accident frequencies for internally initiated accidents at hazardous waste storage facilities (HWSFs) at US Department of Energy (DOE) sites. This categorization is a necessary first step in evaluating the risk of accidents to workers and the general population at each of the sites. This risk evaluation is part of the process of comparing alternative management strategies in DOE's Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (EM) Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS). Such strategies involve regionalization, decentralization, and centralization of waste treatment, storage, and disposal activities. Potential accidents at the HWSFs at the DOE sites are divided into categories of spill alone, spill plus fire, and other event combinations including spill plus fire plus explosion, fire only, spill and explosion, and fire and explosion. One or more accidents are chosen to represent the types of accidents for FY 1992 for 12 DOE sites were studied to determine the most representative set of possible accidents at all DOE sites. Each accident scenario is given a probability of occurrence that is adjusted, depending on the throughput and waste composition that passes through the HWSF at the particular site. The justification for the probabilities chosen is presented

  4. Hazardous waste storage facility accident scenarios for the U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Policastro, A.; Roglans-Ribas, J.; Marmer, D.; Lazaro, M.; Mueller, C. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States); Freeman, W. [Univ. of Illinois, Chicago, IL (United States). Dept. of Chemistry

    1994-03-01

    This paper presents the methods for developing accident categories and accident frequencies for internally initiated accidents at hazardous waste storage facilities (HWSFs) at US Department of Energy (DOE) sites. This categorization is a necessary first step in evaluating the risk of accidents to workers and the general population at each of the sites. This risk evaluation is part of the process of comparing alternative management strategies in DOE`s Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (EM) Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS). Such strategies involve regionalization, decentralization, and centralization of waste treatment, storage, and disposal activities. Potential accidents at the HWSFs at the DOE sites are divided into categories of spill alone, spill plus fire, and other event combinations including spill plus fire plus explosion, fire only, spill and explosion, and fire and explosion. One or more accidents are chosen to represent the types of accidents for FY 1992 for 12 DOE sites were studied to determine the most representative set of possible accidents at all DOE sites. Each accident scenario is given a probability of occurrence that is adjusted, depending on the throughput and waste composition that passes through the HWSF at the particular site. The justification for the probabilities chosen is presented.

  5. Development of groundwater pesticide exposure modeling scenarios for vulnerable spring and winter wheat-growing areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padilla, Lauren; Winchell, Michael; Peranginangin, Natalia; Grant, Shanique

    2017-11-01

    Wheat crops and the major wheat-growing regions of the United States are not included in the 6 crop- and region-specific scenarios developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) for exposure modeling with the Pesticide Root Zone Model conceptualized for groundwater (PRZM-GW). The present work augments the current scenarios by defining appropriately vulnerable PRZM-GW scenarios for high-producing spring and winter wheat-growing regions that are appropriate for use in refined pesticide exposure assessments. Initial screening-level modeling was conducted for all wheat areas across the conterminous United States as defined by multiple years of the Cropland Data Layer land-use data set. Soil, weather, groundwater temperature, evaporation depth, and crop growth and management practices were characterized for each wheat area from publicly and nationally available data sets and converted to input parameters for PRZM. Approximately 150 000 unique combinations of weather, soil, and input parameters were simulated with PRZM for an herbicide applied for postemergence weed control in wheat. The resulting postbreakthrough average herbicide concentrations in a theoretical shallow aquifer were ranked to identify states with the largest regions of relatively vulnerable wheat areas. For these states, input parameters resulting in near 90 th percentile postbreakthrough average concentrations corresponding to significant wheat areas with shallow depth to groundwater formed the basis for 4 new spring wheat scenarios and 4 new winter wheat scenarios to be used in PRZM-GW simulations. Spring wheat scenarios were identified in North Dakota, Montana, Washington, and Texas. Winter wheat scenarios were identified in Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, and Colorado. Compared to the USEPA's original 6 scenarios, postbreakthrough average herbicide concentrations in the new scenarios were lower than all but Florida Potato and Georgia Coastal Peanuts of the original scenarios and better

  6. GENII [Generation II]: The Hanford Environmental Radiation Dosimetry Software System: Volume 3, Code maintenance manual: Hanford Environmental Dosimetry Upgrade Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Napier, B.A.; Peloquin, R.A.; Strenge, D.L.; Ramsdell, J.V.

    1988-09-01

    The Hanford Environmental Dosimetry Upgrade Project was undertaken to incorporate the internal dosimetry models recommended by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) in updated versions of the environmental pathway analysis models used at Hanford. The resulting second generation of Hanford environmental dosimetry computer codes is compiled in the Hanford Environmental Dosimetry System (Generation II, or GENII). This coupled system of computer codes is intended for analysis of environmental contamination resulting from acute or chronic releases to, or initial contamination of, air, water, or soil, on through the calculation of radiation doses to individuals or populations. GENII is described in three volumes of documentation. This volume is a Code Maintenance Manual for the serious user, including code logic diagrams, global dictionary, worksheets to assist with hand calculations, and listings of the code and its associated data libraries. The first volume describes the theoretical considerations of the system. The second volume is a Users' Manual, providing code structure, users' instructions, required system configurations, and QA-related topics. 7 figs., 5 tabs

  7. GENII (Generation II): The Hanford Environmental Radiation Dosimetry Software System: Volume 3, Code maintenance manual: Hanford Environmental Dosimetry Upgrade Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Napier, B.A.; Peloquin, R.A.; Strenge, D.L.; Ramsdell, J.V.

    1988-09-01

    The Hanford Environmental Dosimetry Upgrade Project was undertaken to incorporate the internal dosimetry models recommended by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) in updated versions of the environmental pathway analysis models used at Hanford. The resulting second generation of Hanford environmental dosimetry computer codes is compiled in the Hanford Environmental Dosimetry System (Generation II, or GENII). This coupled system of computer codes is intended for analysis of environmental contamination resulting from acute or chronic releases to, or initial contamination of, air, water, or soil, on through the calculation of radiation doses to individuals or populations. GENII is described in three volumes of documentation. This volume is a Code Maintenance Manual for the serious user, including code logic diagrams, global dictionary, worksheets to assist with hand calculations, and listings of the code and its associated data libraries. The first volume describes the theoretical considerations of the system. The second volume is a Users' Manual, providing code structure, users' instructions, required system configurations, and QA-related topics. 7 figs., 5 tabs.

  8. Useful global-change scenarios: current issues and challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parson, E A

    2008-01-01

    Scenarios are increasingly used to inform global-change debates, but their connection to decisions has been weak and indirect. This reflects the greater number and variety of potential users and scenario needs, relative to other decision domains where scenario use is more established. Global-change scenario needs include common elements, e.g., model-generated projections of emissions and climate change, needed by many users but in different ways and with different assumptions. For these common elements, the limited ability to engage diverse global-change users in scenario development requires extreme transparency in communicating underlying reasoning and assumptions, including probability judgments. Other scenario needs are specific to users, requiring a decentralized network of scenario and assessment organizations to disseminate and interpret common elements and add elements requiring local context or expertise. Such an approach will make global-change scenarios more useful for decisions, but not less controversial. Despite predictable attacks, scenario-based reasoning is necessary for responsible global-change decisions because decision-relevant uncertainties cannot be specified scientifically. The purpose of scenarios is not to avoid speculation, but to make the required speculation more disciplined, more anchored in relevant scientific knowledge when available, and more transparent.

  9. ANCRE scenarios for energy transition. Report 2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alazard-Toux, Nathalie; Des Courtils, Nicolas; Hache, Emmanuel; Liegeard, Alban; Lorne, Daphne; Duplan, Jean-Luc; Kalaydjian, Francois; Heintze, Eric; Tilagone, Richard; Henriot, Stephane; Forti, Laurent; Barthelemy, Pascal; Merlen, Elisabeth; Criqui, Patrick; Mathy, Sandrine; Menanteau, Philippe; Devezeaux De Lavergne, Jean-Guy; Avril, Sophie; Cavata, Christian; Le Duigou, Alain; Le Net, Elisabeth; Marcucci-Demeure, Jeanne; Safa, Henri; Topper, Benjamin; Touboul, Francoise; Carre, Franck; Joly, Jean-Pierre; Charbit, Francoise; Mermilliod, Nicole; Mermilliod, Nicole; Le Net, Elisabeth; Teissier, Olivier; Charrue, Herve; Colonna, Paul; Legrand, Jack; Vidal, Olivier; Goffe, Bruno; Mueller, Alex; Flamant, Gilles; Allard, Francis; Most, Jean-Michel; Matarasso, Pierre; Brault, Pascal; Lemoine, Lionel; Achard, Jean-Luc; Uster, Guillaume; Delsey, Jean; Lucchese, Paul; Tadrist, Lounes; Hadjsaid, Nouredine

    2014-01-01

    This report first gives an overview of the energy system by presenting the determining factors of energy demand and of CO 2 emissions per sector (housing and office building, transport, industry, agriculture, forestry and biomass), by analysing energy systems and CO 2 emissions (energy sources, energy vectors, networks and storage, energy and CO 2 assessment for France), and by describing the guidelines of the scenarios proposed by ANCRE. The three main scenarios are characterized by a stronger sobriety, an electricity-based de-carbonation (with a variant based on nuclear and renewable energies), and diversified vectors. They are notably compared to a trend-based reference scenario. Results are discussed in terms of energy consumption (primary and final energy, consumption by the different sectors), of energy production and CO 2 emissions. Scenarios are assessed in terms of economic, environmental and societal, political and strategic criteria. Some consequences for research topics and funding are identified

  10. Factors Influencing Compensation Demanded for Environmental Impacts Generated by Different Economic Activities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Virna Vaneza Gutiérrez

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This work advances the understanding of compensation demanded for environmental impacts on atmosphere, lakes and rivers, soil, and ocean generated by mining, urban, fishing and agriculture activities. Our aims are to determine whether compensation demanded depends on the standard variables used in the field of risk perception (as perceived risk, public acceptability and trust in regulating authorities, and to explore whether these relationships depend on the environment affected and on the economic activity generating the impacts. General Linear Models were used to analyze survey responses from 427 citizens of Santiago, Chile. Results showed that compensation demanded depends on perceived risk, acceptability, and on the economic activity, but not on the environment affected. Acceptability depends on trust in authorities, on perceived risk and on the economic activity. Perceived risk depends on trust, the economic activity and the environment affected. Overall, environmental impacts from the mining industry are perceived as riskier, less acceptable, and have a higher compensation demanded than those generated by the other sectors. These results suggest that to achieve sustainable development, regulations should consider not only environmental impacts but also the economic activity originating them.

  11. Reduction of negative environmental impact generated by residues of plant tissue culture laboratory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yusleidys Cortés Martínez

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The research is based on the activity developed by teaching and research laboratories for biotechnology purposes with an environmental approach to determine potential contamination risk and analyze the residuals generated. The physical - chemical characterization of the residuals was carried out from contamination indicators that can affect the dumping of residual water. In order to identify the environmental risks and sources of microbial contamination of plant material propagated by in vitro culture that generate residuals, all the risk activities were identified, the type of risk involved in each activity was analyzed, as well as whether or not the standards were met of aseptic normative. The dilution and neutralization was proposed for residuals with extreme values of pH. Since the results of the work a set of measures was proposed to reduce the negative environmental impact of the laboratory residuals. Key words: biosafety, environmental management, microbial contamination

  12. Evaluation of mitigation scenarios of climate change in the electric sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perez Martin, David; Lopez Lopez, I.

    1999-01-01

    The electricity generation contributes to development and to improve the quality of life, But it is ones of the most important contributors to the Greenhouse Gas and particle emissions particularly in Cuba where 99.4% of electricity in the National Electric System is generated from fossil fuels. In the paper from mitigation measures three mitigation scenarios are evaluated for the Expansion of the Cuban electric system using DECADES Tools. Evaluated scenarios include the Use of 60% of the biomass potential, the combinations of this with nuclear power reactors, Hydraulic energy and combined cycle power plants. Finally in the paper the Greenhouse Gas level reduction, investment, fuel, operation and Maintenance costs and Carbon Intensity in generation are analyzed for evaluated mitigation Scenarios and conclusions are offered

  13. Business analysis of generation considering environmental opportunities; Analise de negocios de geracao considerando oportunidades ambientais

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cyrillo, Ivo Ordonha [Universidade de Sao Paulo (ENERQ/USP), SP (Brazil). Centro de Estudos em Regulacao e Qualidade de Energia; Pelegrini, Marcelo A.; Gemignani, Matheus M.F.

    2008-07-01

    The project 'Business's Power Generation Evaluation Considering Environmental Opportunities' is about developing a methodology to analyze feasibility of new power generation factory from the point of view of the investor, examining the technical, economic-financial, risk, regulatory, social and environmental aspects. The opportunities arising from Kyoto Protocol were added in feasibility's analysis. (author)

  14. Coastal and offshore wind energy generation: is it environmentally benign?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilson, J. C.; Elliott, M.; Cutts, N. D.; Mander, L.; Mendao, V.; Perez-Dominguez, R.; Phelps, A. [Institute of Estuarine and Coastal Studies, University of Hull, Hull, HU6 7RX (United Kingdom); Wilson, J. C. [Amec, Booths Park, Chelford Road, Knutsford, Cheshire, WA16 8QZ (United Kingdom); Mendao, V. [Projecto Delfim, Centro Portugues de Estudo dos Mamiferos Marinhos, Rua Alto do Duque, 45, 1400-009 Lisboa (Portugal)

    2010-07-15

    Offshore and coastal wind power is one of the fastest growing industries in many areas, especially those with shallow coastal regions due to the preferable generation conditions available in the regions. As with any expanding industry, there are concerns regarding the potential environmental effects which may be caused by the installation of the offshore wind turbines and their associated infrastructure, including substations and subsea cables. These include the potential impacts on the biological, physical and human environments. This review discusses in detail the potential impacts arising from offshore wind farm construction, and how these may be quantified and addressed through the use of conceptual models. It concludes that while not environmentally benign, the environmental impacts are minor and can be mitigated through good siting practices. In addition, it suggests that there are opportunities for environmental benefits through habitat creation and conservation protection areas. (authors)

  15. Life cycle assessment of integrated waste management systems for alternative legacy scenarios of the London Olympic Park

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parkes, Olga, E-mail: o.parkes@ucl.ac.uk; Lettieri, Paola, E-mail: p.lettieri@ucl.ac.uk; Bogle, I. David L.

    2015-06-15

    Highlights: • Application of LCA in planning integrated waste management systems. • Environmental valuation of 3 legacy scenarios for the Olympic Park. • Hot-spot analysis highlights the importance of energy and materials recovery. • Most environmental savings are achieved through materials recycling. • Sensitivity analysis shows importance of waste composition and recycling rates. - Abstract: This paper presents the results of the life cycle assessment (LCA) of 10 integrated waste management systems (IWMSs) for 3 potential post-event site design scenarios of the London Olympic Park. The aim of the LCA study is to evaluate direct and indirect emissions resulting from various treatment options of municipal solid waste (MSW) annually generated on site together with avoided emissions resulting from energy, materials and nutrients recovery. IWMSs are modelled using GaBi v6.0 Product Sustainability software and results are presented based on the CML (v.Nov-10) characterisation method. The results show that IWMSs with advanced thermal treatment (ATT) and incineration with energy recovery have the lowest Global Warming Potential (GWP) than IWMSs where landfill is the primary waste treatment process. This is due to higher direct emissions and lower avoided emissions from the landfill process compared to the emissions from the thermal treatment processes. LCA results demonstrate that significant environmental savings are achieved through substitution of virgin materials with recycled ones. The results of the sensitivity analysis carried out for IWMS 1 shows that increasing recycling rate by 5%, 10% and 15% compared to the baseline scenario can reduce GWP by 8%, 17% and 25% respectively. Sensitivity analysis also shows how changes in waste composition affect the overall result of the system. The outcomes of such assessments provide decision-makers with fundamental information regarding the environmental impacts of different waste treatment options necessary for

  16. Ecology, Economy and security of supply of the Dutch Electricity Supply System. A scenario based future analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roedel, J.G.

    2008-01-01

    The Dutch electricity sector has been transformed into a liberalized international energy market. Market players are free to choose from various electricity generation options when replacing or expanding production capacity. However, choices that are made now will influence emissions (ecology), integral costs (economy) and availability (security of supply) for the next 25 - 40 years. This thesis shows if and how, based on the current electricity supply system, an optimal balance of ecology, economy and security of supply can be achieved. First, the current electricity supply system is described to create a frame of reference. Then, future technological developments are described for electricity production options. Four potential scenarios are constructed featuring various uncertainties: the globalising versus the local economy; priority versus subordination for the environment; and the security/insecurity of the fuel supply. These four scenarios are worked out with a specially developed techno-economic simulation model; the results are analysed in terms of ecology, economy and security of supply. The findings indicate that it is impossible to arrive at an optimal balance for the defined scenarios. Scenarios with a low environmental impact lead to high integral costs and vice versa. However, by applying a smart combination of various modern generation technologies, CO2 capture and storage, the deployment of biomass and the re-use of residual heat it is possible to reach an optimal balance whereby the additional integral costs can be kept under control compared with the lowest-cost scenarios. To achieve this, clear growth and incentive guidelines need to be established for the various production options. This thesis will form a good starting point for that exercise

  17. Environmental assessment of amine-based carbon capture Scenario modelling with life cycle assessment (LCA)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brekke, Andreas; Askham, Cecilia; Modahl, Ingunn Saur; Vold, Bjoern Ivar; Johnsen, Fredrik Moltu

    2012-07-01

    This report contains a first attempt at introducing the environmental impacts associated with amines and derivatives in a life cycle assessment (LCA) of gas power production with carbon capture and comparing these with other environmental impacts associated with the production system. The report aims to identify data gaps and methodological challenges connected both to modelling toxicity of amines and derivatives and weighting of environmental impacts. A scenario based modelling exercise was performed on a theoretical gas power plant with carbon capture, where emission levels of nitrosamines were varied between zero (gas power without CCS) to a worst case level (outside the probable range of actual carbon capture facilities). Because of extensive research and development in the areas of solvents and emissions from carbon capture facilities in the latter years, data used in the exercise may be outdated and results should therefore not be taken at face value.The results from the exercise showed: According to UseTox, emissions of nitrosamines are less important than emissions of formaldehyde with regard to toxicity related to operation of (i.e. both inputs to and outputs from) a carbon capture facility. If characterisation factors for emissions of metals are included, these outweigh all other toxic emissions in the study. None of the most recent weighting methods in LCA include characterisation factors for nitrosamines, and these are therefore not part of the environmental ranking.These results shows that the EDecIDe project has an important role to play in developing LCA methodology useful for assessing the environmental performance of amine based carbon capture in particular and CCS in general. The EDecIDe project will examine the toxicity models used in LCA in more detail, specifically UseTox. The applicability of the LCA compartment models and site specificity issues for a Norwegian/Arctic situation will be explored. This applies to the environmental compartments

  18. A Model for Generating Multi-hazard Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo Jacomo, A.; Han, D.; Champneys, A.

    2017-12-01

    Communities in mountain areas are often subject to risk from multiple hazards, such as earthquakes, landslides, and floods. Each hazard has its own different rate of onset, duration, and return period. Multiple hazards tend to complicate the combined risk due to their interactions. Prioritising interventions for minimising risk in this context is challenging. We developed a probabilistic multi-hazard model to help inform decision making in multi-hazard areas. The model is applied to a case study region in the Sichuan province in China, using information from satellite imagery and in-situ data. The model is not intended as a predictive model, but rather as a tool which takes stakeholder input and can be used to explore plausible hazard scenarios over time. By using a Monte Carlo framework and varrying uncertain parameters for each of the hazards, the model can be used to explore the effect of different mitigation interventions aimed at reducing the disaster risk within an uncertain hazard context.

  19. The SusHouse project. Use and maintenance of clothing as an example. Environmental analysis of system-level future scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knot, M.; Bras-Klapwijk, R.M.

    2001-01-01

    The SusHouse project assumed that system-level innovations are necessary for sustainable development, involving new arrangements and combined innovations in technology, organisation and behaviour. The life cycle analysis (LCA) method has been used and adapted to evaluate the potential of such complex system-level strategies to reduce environmental impact. This article explains and discusses this approach and presents some assessment results for the SusHouse research into clothing. The requirements and systems used were found to yield interesting insights into relevant solutions and strategies. The future scenarios for clothing promise major improvements in most of the environmental indicators, with particular contributions from changes in the quantity and quality of clothing consumed. The article recommends extending the approach with a 'turning points' analysis, because of the many uncertainties, as well as the use of more differentiated indicators and the inclusion of a focused trend analysis. 17 refs

  20. Renewable energies in electricity generation for reduction of greenhouse gases in Mexico 2025.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islas, Jorge; Manzini, Fabio; Martínez, Manuel

    2002-02-01

    This study presents 4 scenarios relating to the environmental futures of electricity generation in Mexico up to the year 2025. The first scenario emphasizes the use of oil products, particularly fuel oil, and represents the historic path of Mexico's energy policy. The second scenario prioritizes the use of natural gas, reflecting the energy consumption pattern that arose in the mid-1990s as a result of reforms in the energy sector. In the third scenario, the high participation of renewable sources of energy is considered feasible from a technical and economic point of view. The fourth scenario takes into account the present- and medium-term use of natural-gas technologies that the energy reform has produced, but after 2007 a high and feasible participation of renewable sources of energy is considered. The 4 scenarios are evaluated up to the year 2025 in terms of greenhouse gases (GHG) and acid rain precursor gases (ARPG).

  1. Environmental pricing of externalities from different sources of electricity generation in Chile

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aravena, Claudia; Hutchinson, W. George; Longo, Alberto

    2012-01-01

    The rapid increase in electricity demand in Chile means a choice must be made between major investments in renewable or non-renewable sources for additional production. Current projects to develop large dams for hydropower in Chilean Patagonia impose an environmental price by damaging the natural environment. On the other hand, the increased use of fossil fuels entails an environmental price in terms of air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions contributing to climate change. This paper studies the debate on future electricity supply in Chile by investigating the preferences of households for a variety of different sources of electricity generation such as fossil fuels, large hydropower in Chilean Patagonia and other renewable energy sources. Using Double Bounded Dichotomous Choice Contingent Valuation, a novel advanced disclosure method and internal consistency test are used to elicit the willingness to pay for less environmentally damaging sources. Policy results suggest a strong preference for renewable energy sources with higher environmental prices imposed by consumers on electricity generated from fossil fuels than from large dams in Chilean Patagonia. Policy results further suggest the possibility of introducing incentives for renewable energy developments that would be supported by consumers through green tariffs or environmental premiums. Methodological findings suggest that advanced disclosure learning overcomes the problem of internal inconsistency in SB-DB estimates.

  2. Municipal scale scenario: Analysis of an Italian seaside town with MarkAL-TIMES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Comodi, G.; Cioccolanti, L.; Gargiulo, M.

    2012-01-01

    This work presents three 25-year energy scenarios developed with the TIMES model generator for Pesaro, a seaside municipality in central Italy. It evaluates the effectiveness of local-scale energy policies in three sectors: households, transport, and the public sector (PS). Since the local energy demand is affected by summer tourism, seasonal consumption by holiday homes was also studied. Three scenarios were hypothesized: Business as Usual (BAU), Exemplary Public Sector (EPS), and Exemplary Municipality (EM). The EPS scenario models the exemplary role that recent European directives attribute to the PS in setting energy efficiency and technology penetration targets for itself; the EM scenario extends these targets to the household sector. In particular, the study underscores the potential of micro-cogeneration technologies in achieving local environmental targets, even though their diffusion would involve an increase in local energy consumption due to internalization of the primary energy used to produce electricity, which would no longer be wholly imported from outside municipal boundaries. The study provides information to local decision-makers by estimating the cost of implementing a number of energy policies. Finally, the study discusses the adequacy of TIMES as a tool to analyse municipal-scale scenarios. - Highlights: ► The main sectors investigated are transportation, household, and public sector. ► To account of touristic season holyday homes are modelled separately. ► Energy efficiency and renewables can help to highly reduce local consumptions. ► Micro-chp increases local consumption internalizing electricity self-production. ► Provide an insight on the adequacy of the use of TIMES at municipal scale.

  3. Promoting energy-saving and environmentally friendly generation dispatching model in China: Phase development and case studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ding, Yi; Yang, Hongliang

    2013-01-01

    Energy saving and environmental protection are important conditions for the sustainable development of Chinese economy. However current widely used generation scheduling model based on predefined production quota and tariff results in heavy energy consumption and severe environment pollution. From...... 2007, as concerns over energy shortage and environmental pollution, the Chinese authorities introduced the implementation of energy-saving generation dispatching model, which is an important approach to facilitating energy-saving and reduction of pollutant emission. The objective of implementing energy......-saving generation dispatching model is to prioritize the use of renewable energy resources and new power plants with high efficiency without compromising power system security and reliability. This paper analyzes the necessity and feasibility of implementing energy-efficient and environmentally friendly generation...

  4. Evaluation of unit risk factors in support of the Hanford Remedial Action Environmental Impact Statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strenge, D.L.; Chamberlain, P.J. II.

    1994-11-01

    This report describes the generation of unit risk factors for use with the Graphical Information System (GIS) being developed by Advanced Sciences, Inc. for the Hanford Remedial Action Environmental Impact Statement. The GIS couples information on source inventory and environmental transport with unit risk factors to estimate the potential risk from contamination at all locations on the Hanford Site. The major components of the effort to generate the unit risk factors were: determination of pollutants to include in the study, definition of media of concern, and definition of exposure assessment scenarios, methods, and parameters. The selection of pollutants was based on inventory lists which indicated the pollutants likely to be encountered at the known waste sites. The final pollutants selected included 47 chemical pollutants and 101 radionuclides. Unit risk factors have been generated for all 148 pollutants per unit initial concentration in five media: soil (per unit mass), soil (per unit area), air, groundwater, and surface water. The exposure scenarios were selected as the basis for the unit risk factor generation. The endpoint in the exposure assessment analysis is expressed as risk of developing cancer for radionuclides and carcinogenic chemicals. For noncarcinogenic chemicals, the risk endpoint is the hazard quotient. The cancer incidence and hazard quotient values are evaluated for all exposure pathways, pollutants, and scenarios. The hazard index values and unit risk values are used by the GIS to produce maps of risk for the Hanford Site

  5. Energy assessment of second generation (2G) ethanol production from wheat straw in Indian scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Archana; Kumar, Akash; Ghosh, Sanjoy

    2018-03-01

    Impact of second-generation ethanol (2G) use in transportation sector mainly depends upon energy efficiency of entire production process. The objective of present study was to determine energy efficiency of a potential lignocellulosic feedstock; wheat straw and its conversion into cellulosic ethanol in Indian scenario. Energy efficiency was determined by calculating Net energy ratio (NER), i.e. ratio of output energy obtained by ethanol and input energy used in ethanol production. Energy consumption and generation at each step is calculated briefly (11,837.35 MJ/ha during Indian dwarf irrigated variety of wheat crop production and 7.1148 MJ/kg straw during ethanol production stage). Total energy consumption is calculated as 8.2988 MJ/kg straw whereas energy generation from ethanol is 15.082 MJ/kg straw; resulting into NER > 1. Major portion of agricultural energy input is contributed by diesel and fertilisers whereas refining process of wheat straw feedstock to ethanol and by-products require mainly in the form of steam and electricity. On an average, 1671.8 kg water free ethanol, 930 kg lignin rich biomass (for combustion), and 561 kg C5-molasses (for fodder) per hectare are produced. Findings of this study, net energy ratio (1.81) and figure of merit (14.8028 MJ/nil kg carbon) proves wheat straw as highest energy efficient lignocellulosic feedstock for the country.

  6. Pesticide Substitution: Combining Food Safety with Environmental Quality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fantke, Peter

    2015-01-01

    Various pesticides are authorized for use on agricultural food crops. Despite regulatory risk assessments aiming at ensuring consumer and environmental safety, pesticides contribute to human and environmental impacts. Guidance is needed to optimize pesticide use practice and minimize human...... and environmental exposure. Comparative pesticide substitution scenarios are presented to address this need. In a case study on wheat, different pesticides have been compared with respect to their substitution potential with focus on human health. Results demonstrate that health impacts can be reduced up to 99......% by defining adequate substitution scenarios. Comprehensive scenarios need to also consider worker and environmental burden, and information on crop rotation, pest pressure, environmental conditions, application costs and efficacy. Such scenarios help to increase food safety and more sustainable use...

  7. Economic evaluation of environmental externalities in China’s coal-fired power generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, Xiaoli; Cai, Qiong; Ma, Chunbo; Hu, Yanan; Luo, Kaiyan; Li, William

    2017-01-01

    Serious environmental externalities exist in China’s power industry. Environmental economics theory suggests that the evaluation of environmental externality is the basis of designing an efficient regulation. The purposes of this study are: (1) to identify Chinese respondents’ preferences for green development of electric power industry and the socio-economic characteristics behind them; (2) to investigate the different attitudes of the respondents towards pollution and CO_2 reduction; (3) to quantitatively evaluate the environmental cost of China’s coal-fired power generation. Based on the method of choice experiments (CE) and the 411 questionnaires with 2466 data points, we found that Chinese respondents prefer PM2.5, SO_2 and NO_x reduction to CO_2 reduction and that the environment cost of coal-fired power plants in China is 0.30 yuan per kWh. In addition, we found that the socio-economic characteristics of income, education, gender, and environmental awareness have significant impacts on respondents’ choices. These findings indicate that the environmental cost of coal-fired power generation is a significant factor that requires great consideration in the formulation of electric power development policies. In addition, importance should also be attached to the implementation of green power price policy and enhancement of environmental protection awareness. - Highlights: • Chinese respondents have willingness to pay premium for green development. • The environment cost of coal-fired power plants in China is 0.30 yuan/kwh. • Chinese respondents prefer PM2.5, SO_2 and NO_x reduction to CO_2 reduction. • Environmental awareness has significant impacts on respondents’ preferences. • Income, education and gender affect the evaluation results.

  8. Data Envelopment Analysis of different climate policy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bosetti, Valentina; Buchner, Barbara

    2009-01-01

    Recent developments in the political, scientific and economic debate on climate change suggest that it is of critical importance to develop new approaches able to compare policy scenarios for their environmental effectiveness, their distributive effects, their enforceability, their costs and many other dimensions. This paper discusses a quantitative methodology to assess the relative performance of different climate policy scenarios when accounting for their long-term economic, social and environmental impacts. The proposed procedure is based on Data Envelopment Analysis, here employed in evaluating the relative efficiency of eleven global climate policy scenarios. The methodology provides a promising comparison framework; it can be seen as a way of setting some basic guidelines to frame further debates and negotiations and can be flexibly adopted and modified by decision makers to obtain relevant information for policy design. Three major findings emerge from this analysis: (1) stringent climate policies can outperform less ambitious proposals if all sustainability dimensions are taken into account; (2) a carefully chosen burden-sharing rule is able to bring together climate stabilisation and equity considerations; and (3) the most inefficient strategy results from the failure to negotiate a post-2012 global climate agreement. (author)

  9. Economic and environmental balancing in response to NEPA for electric power generating plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bender, M.

    1976-01-01

    Discussion of principles that can provide guidance in responding to the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) in the planning of electric power generating plants. The environmental assessment procedure described is initiated by considering alternative decisions in concern for environmental assessment. Having defined the decision paths, the assessment proceeds in a four-phase sequence: Correlation of the alternatives with resource and marketing restraints; screening the alternatives for environmental adequacy and specifying the needed technological refinement; examination of the economics in terms of energy costs; comparing the energy cost with the environmental index and selecting the combination that best reflects the current social preference. (Auth.)

  10. Stochastic congestion management in power markets using efficient scenario approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Esmaili, Masoud; Amjady, Nima; Shayanfar, Heidar Ali

    2010-01-01

    Congestion management in electricity markets is traditionally performed using deterministic values of system parameters assuming a fixed network configuration. In this paper, a stochastic programming framework is proposed for congestion management considering the power system uncertainties comprising outage of generating units and transmission branches. The Forced Outage Rate of equipment is employed in the stochastic programming. Using the Monte Carlo simulation, possible scenarios of power system operating states are generated and a probability is assigned to each scenario. The performance of the ordinary as well as Lattice rank-1 and rank-2 Monte Carlo simulations is evaluated in the proposed congestion management framework. As a tradeoff between computation time and accuracy, scenario reduction based on the standard deviation of accepted scenarios is adopted. The stochastic congestion management solution is obtained by aggregating individual solutions of accepted scenarios. Congestion management using the proposed stochastic framework provides a more realistic solution compared with traditional deterministic solutions. Results of testing the proposed stochastic congestion management on the 24-bus reliability test system indicate the efficiency of the proposed framework.

  11. Evaluation of negative environmental impacts of electricity generation: Neoclassical and institutional approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Sang-Hoon

    2007-01-01

    Neoclassical and institutional economics have developed different theories and methodologies for evaluating environmental and social impacts of electricity generation. The neoclassical approach valuates external costs, and the institutional approach uses social cost valuation and MCDM methods. This paper focuses on three dimensions: theoretical and methodological backgrounds; critical review of specific studies: methodologies, results, and limitations; and discussing their results and implications for environmental policy and further research. The two approaches lead to a common conclusion that fossil fuels and nuclear power show the highest environmental impact. Despite the common conclusion, the conclusion has limited implications for environmental policy because of the weakness of their methodologies

  12. European Water Footprint Scenarios for 2050

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Ertug Ercin

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This study develops water footprint scenarios for Europe for 2050, at the country level, based on projections regarding population and economic growth, production and trade patterns, consumption patterns (diets and bioenergy use and technological development. The objective is to estimate possible future changes in the green, blue and grey water footprint (WF of production and consumption, to analyze the main drivers of projected changes and to assess Europe’s future dependence on water resources elsewhere in the world. We develop four scenarios, considering globalization versus regional self-sufficiency, and development driven by economic objectives versus development driven by social and environmental objectives. The study shows that the most critical driver of change affecting Europe’s future WF is the consumption pattern. The WFs of both production and consumption in Western Europe increase under scenarios with high meat consumption and decrease with low-meat scenarios. Besides, additional water demands from increasing biofuel needs will put further pressure on European water resources. The European countries with a large ratio of external to total WF of consumption in 2000 decrease their dependencies on foreign water resources in 2050.

  13. Framework for Identifying Key Environmental Concerns in Marine Renewable Energy Projects- Appendices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kramer, Sharon; Previsic, Mirko; Nelson, Peter; Woo, Sheri

    2010-06-17

    Marine wave and tidal energy technology could interact with marine resources in ways that are not well understood. As wave and tidal energy conversion projects are planned, tested, and deployed, a wide range of stakeholders will be engaged; these include developers, state and federal regulatory agencies, environmental groups, tribal governments, recreational and commercial fishermen, and local communities. Identifying stakeholders’ environmental concerns in the early stages of the industry’s development will help developers address and minimize potential environmental effects. Identifying important concerns will also assist with streamlining siting and associated permitting processes, which are considered key hurdles by the industry in the U.S. today. In September 2008, RE Vision consulting, LLC was selected by the Department of Energy (DoE) to conduct a scenario-based evaluation of emerging hydrokinetic technologies. The purpose of this evaluation is to identify and characterize environmental impacts that are likely to occur, demonstrate a process for analyzing these impacts, identify the “key” environmental concerns for each scenario, identify areas of uncertainty, and describe studies that could address that uncertainty. This process is intended to provide an objective and transparent tool to assist in decision-making for siting and selection of technology for wave and tidal energy development. RE Vision worked with H. T. Harvey & Associates, to develop a framework for identifying key environmental concerns with marine renewable technology. This report describes the results of this study. This framework was applied to varying wave and tidal power conversion technologies, scales, and locations. The following wave and tidal energy scenarios were considered: 4 wave energy generation technologies 3 tidal energy generation technologies 3 sites: Humboldt coast, California (wave); Makapu’u Point, Oahu, Hawaii (wave); and the Tacoma Narrows, Washington (tidal

  14. The future of energy generation sector in Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Assis, Gino de

    2000-01-01

    The importance of energy on the life of modern man is evaluated considering environmental and strategic issues. Energetic crisis that happened on the recent past of Brazil and United States of America are reviewed and analysed in the light of the particular strategic matters of each country. A tentative projection of the profile of the electrical energy generator industry of Brazil is done based on the past experiences, on the present scenario and on the future potentials. (author)

  15. Nigeria electricity crisis: Power generation capacity expansion and environmental ramifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aliyu, Abubakar Sadiq; Ramli, Ahmad Termizi; Saleh, Muneer Aziz

    2013-01-01

    Access to clean and stable electricity is essential in actualizing Nigeria's quest for joining the league of twenty most industrious nations by the year 2020 (vision 20:2020). No country can develop and sustain it development without having a minimum access to electricity for it larger percentage of its population. At present, Nigeria depends petroleum reserves and its aged hydro plant instalments for electricity generation to feed the 40% of its total population that are connected to the national grid. This paper summarizes literature on the current energy issues in Nigeria and introduces the difficulty of the issues involved. The paper also analyses the current (2010) electricity generation as well as the future expansion plans of the Government in 20 years period. The plan includes the introduction of new electrify generation technologies that have not been in used in the base year (2010). The electricity generation system of (including the future expansion plan) was simulated using the LEAP System (Long-range Energy Alternative and Planning). We also investigated the potential environmental impact of siting a nuclear power plant in one of the potential sites based on the site's specific micro-meteorology (land use) and meteorology using the US EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) models; AERMOD 12345. - Highlights: • This paper scrutinizes literature on Nigeria's energy crisis and presents the policies of the clean technology as solutions. • Only 40% of Nigeria's population is connected to the grid; and this population faces power problems 60% of the time. • Simulation of Nigeria electricity generation system was done. • Air dispersion modellingmodelling for radiological health risk from NPP was done

  16. Comparison of scenarios for the integrated management of construction and demolition waste by life cycle assessment: A case study in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penteado, Carmenlucia Santos Giordano; Rosado, Laís Peixoto

    2016-10-01

    Brazil, as a result of economic development and strengthening of the construction industry in recent years, is generating an increasing amount of construction and demolition waste (CDW). Hence, environmental assessment of the management systems is vital. A life cycle assessment (LCA) is presented of CDW management in a medium-sized municipality located in the southeast region of Brazil, where the impacts of leaching were not considered due to absence of consistent data. Six different proposed scenarios for the current CDW management situation have been considered. These scenarios comprised the combined use of landfilling, sorting, and recycling, and the use of CDW as paving material for landfill roads, in different percentages. Considering 0.8 ton of waste as the functional unit, the life cycle inventory was performed using primary data obtained from field survey and secondary data from the database Ecoinvent version 3.1, and from the literature. The method CML 2 baseline 2001 was used for environmental impacts evaluation. The results highlight that recycling is beneficial when efficient CDW sorting takes place at construction sites, avoiding the transport of refuse to sorting and recycling facilities, and the distance between the generation source and the recycling unit is within 30 km. Thus, our results are helpful to ensure that the decision-making processes are based on environmental and technical aspects, and not only on economic and political factors, and also provide data and support for other LCA studies on CDW. © The Author(s) 2016.

  17. Carbon footprint as environmental performance indicator for the manufacturing industry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laurent, Alexis; Olsen, Stig Irving; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky

    2010-01-01

    With the current focus on our climate change impacts, the embodied CO2 emission or "Carbon footprint" is often used as an environmental performance indicator for our products or production activities. The ability of carbon footprint to represent other types of impact like human toxicity, and hence...... the overall environmental impact is investigated based on life cycle assessments of several materials of major relevance to manufacturing industries. The dependence of the carbon footprint on the assumed scenarios for generation of thermal and electrical energy in the life cycle of the materials is analyzed......, and the appropriateness of carbon footprint as an overall indicator of the environmental performance is discussed....

  18. [GIS and scenario analysis aid to water pollution control planning of river basin].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Shao-ping; Cheng, Sheng-tong; Jia, Hai-feng; Ou, Zhi-dan; Tan, Bin

    2004-07-01

    The forward and backward algorithms for watershed water pollution control planning were summarized in this paper as well as their advantages and shortages. The spatial databases of water environmental function region, pollution sources, monitoring sections and sewer outlets were built with ARCGIS8.1 as the platform in the case study of Ganjiang valley, Jiangxi province. Based on the principles of the forward algorithm, four scenarios were designed for the watershed pollution control. Under these scenarios, ten sets of planning schemes were generated to implement cascade pollution source control. The investment costs of sewage treatment for these schemes were estimated by means of a series of cost-effective functions; with pollution source prediction, the water quality was modeled with CSTR model for each planning scheme. The modeled results of different planning schemes were visualized through GIS to aid decision-making. With the results of investment cost and water quality attainment as decision-making accords and based on the analysis of the economic endurable capacity for water pollution control in Ganjiang river basin, two optimized schemes were proposed. The research shows that GIS technology and scenario analysis can provide a good guidance to the synthesis, integrity and sustainability aspects for river basin water quality planning.

  19. Scenarios of Solar Energy Use on the “Roof of the World”: Potentials and Environmental Benefits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harald Zandler

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Peripheral mountain areas in developing countries are often characterized by energy poverty but also by high solar energy potential. The Eastern Pamirs of Tajikistan are a prime example of this situation, with their lack of energy infrastructure, remoteness, pressure on local natural resources, and high incident radiation amounts. An integrative assessment of the potential for photovoltaic power generation is lacking for this region, as well as for many other mountain environments. We assessed the natural potential, feasibility, and likely effects of increased photovoltaic electricity generation, using climate data, biomass data, a spatial radiation model, and fieldwork- and literature-based scenarios of energy requirements and financial conditions. Results indicated that using a photovoltaic power plant to generate enough energy for boiling water is feasible in the study area within reasonable cost limits. This could significantly alleviate energy poverty, increase carbon sequestration by up to 1500 t/y, and reduce the loss of dwarf shrub stands by up to 2000 ha/y. Our results illustrate that the integrative approach presented in this article can be applied straightforwardly when some climatic measurements and field observations are available and that photovoltaic energy is an important renewable-energy resource for the sustainable development of peripheral high-mountain communities.

  20. ADEME energy transition scenarios. Summary including a macro-economic evaluation 2030 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2014-05-01

    ADEME, the French Environment and Energy Management Agency, is a public agency reporting to the Ministry of Ecology, Sustainable Development and Energy and the Ministry of Higher Education and Research. In 2012 the agency drew up a long-term scenario entitled 'ADEME Energy Transition Scenarios 2030-2050'. This document presents a summary of the report. The full version can be viewed online on the ADEME web site. With this work ADEME offers a proactive energy vision for all stakeholders - experts, the general public, decision-makers, etc. - focusing on two main areas of expertise: managing energy conservation and developing renewable energy production using proven or demonstration-phase technologies. These scenarios identify a possible pathway for the energy transition in France. They are based on two time horizons and two separate methodologies. One projection, applicable from the present day, seeks to maximise potential energy savings and renewable energy production in an ambitious but realistic manner, up to 2030. The second exercise is a normative scenario that targets a fourfold reduction in greenhouse gas emissions generated in France by 2050, compared to 1990 levels. The analysis presented in this document is primarily based on an exploration of different scenarios that allow for the achievement of ambitious energy and environmental targets under technically, economically and socially feasible conditions. This analysis is supplemented by a macro-economic analysis. These projections, particularly for 2030, do not rely on radical changes in lifestyle, lower comfort levels or hypothetical major technological breakthroughs. They show that by using technologies and organisational changes that are currently within our reach, we have the means to achieve these long-term goals. The scenarios are based on assumptions of significant growth, both economic (1.8% per year) and demographic (0.4% a year). The 2050 scenario shows that with sustained growth, a

  1. Stochastic Channel Modeling for Railway Tunnel Scenarios at 25 GHz

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danping He

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available More people prefer using rail traffic for travel or for commuting owing to its convenience and flexibility. The railway scenario has become an important communication scenario in the fifth generation era. The communication system should be designed to support high‐data‐rate demands with seamless connectivity at a high mobility. In this paper, the channel characteristics are studied and modeled for the railway tunnel scenario with straight and curved route shapes. On the basis of measurements using the “Mobile Hotspot Network” system, a three‐dimensional ray tracer (RT is calibrated and validated for the target scenarios. More channel characteristics are explored via RT simulations at 25.25 GHz with a 500‐MHz bandwidth. The key channel parameters are extracted, provided, and incorporated into a 3rd‐Generation‐Partnership‐Project‐like stochastic channel generator. The necessary channel information can be practically realized, which can support the link‐level and system‐level design of the communication system in similar scenarios.

  2. Scenario-based analyses of energy system development and its environmental implications in Thailand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shrestha, Ram M.; Malla, Sunil; Liyanage, Migara H.

    2007-01-01

    Thailand is one of the fastest growing energy-intensive economies in Southeast Asia. To formulate sound energy policies in the country, it is important to understand the impact of energy use on the environment over the long-period. This study examines energy system development and its associated greenhouse gas and local air pollutant emissions under four scenarios in Thailand through the year 2050. The four scenarios involve different growth paths for economy, population, energy efficiency and penetration of renewable energy technologies. The paper assesses the changes in primary energy supply mix, sector-wise final energy demand, energy import dependency and CO 2 , SO 2 and NO x emissions under four scenarios using end-use based Asia-Pacific Integrated Assessment Model (AIM/Enduse) of Thailand. (author)

  3. Expanding electricity capacity in Thailand to meet the twin challenges of supply security and environmental protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakawiro, Thanawat; Bhattacharyya, Subhes C.; Limmeechokchai, Bundit

    2008-01-01

    Rapid growth in electricity demand in Thailand is a major challenge for electric utilities trying to ensure adequate supply. Continued reliance on natural gas for power supply makes the supply mix non-diversified and exposes the country to supply risks while a diversification to other fossil fuels imposes additional environmental burdens. To find an acceptable solution to this twin challenge, this paper assesses four scenarios of electricity capacity expansion planning for Thailand for the period between 2011 and 2025 under two different assumptions of fuel prices to reflect the case of international high oil price affecting cost of fuels for power generation in Thailand. It is found that the lowest environmental emissions are obtained from the scenario where power generation is highly dominated by natural gas. In contrast, the least cost electricity generation is achieved from the case if nuclear power plant is added into the Thai power system. Reliance on natural gas for power generation increases the spending on gas purchase as a share of the gross domestic product (GDP) - between 2.38% and 3.61% of (GDP). In addition, fuel import dependence, particularly for natural gas and coal, increases exposing the country to possible price volatility. (author)

  4. Sustainability assessment framework for scenarios – SAFS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arushanyan, Yevgeniya, E-mail: yevgeniya.arushanyan@abe.kth.se [KTH Royal Institute of Technology, School of Architecture and the Built Environment, Department of Sustainable Development, Environmental Science and Engineering, Division of Environmental Strategies Research, Drottning Kristinas väg 30, 10044 Stockholm (Sweden); KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Centre for Sustainable Communications (CESC), Lindstedtsvägen 5, 100 44 Stockholm (Sweden); Ekener, Elisabeth; Moberg, Åsa [KTH Royal Institute of Technology, School of Architecture and the Built Environment, Department of Sustainable Development, Environmental Science and Engineering, Division of Environmental Strategies Research, Drottning Kristinas väg 30, 10044 Stockholm (Sweden); KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Centre for Sustainable Communications (CESC), Lindstedtsvägen 5, 100 44 Stockholm (Sweden)

    2017-03-15

    To address current challenges regarding sustainable development and support planning for this form of development, new learning about different possible futures and their potential sustainability implications is needed. One way of facilitating this learning is by combining the futures studies and sustainability assessment (SA) research fields. This paper presents the sustainability assessment framework for scenarios (SAFS), a method developed for assessing the environmental and social risks and opportunities of future scenarios, provides guidelines for its application and demonstrates how the framework can be applied. SAFS suggests assessing environmental and social aspects using a consumption perspective and a life cycle approach, and provides qualitative results. SAFS does not suggest any modelling using precise data, but instead offers guidelines on how to carry out a qualitative assessment, where both the process of assessing and the outcome of the assessment are valuable and can be used as a basis for discussion. The benefits, drawbacks and potential challenges of applying SAFS are also discussed in the paper. SAFS uses systems thinking looking at future societies as a whole, considering both environmental and social consequences. This encourages researchers and decision-makers to consider the whole picture, and not just individual elements, when considering different futures. - Highlights: • The paper presents a new methodological framework for qualitative sustainability assessment of future scenarios with transformative changes. • The framework suggests qualitative assessment with consumption perspective and a life cycle approach. • The paper presents the framework and provides guidelines for its application. • The paper demonstrates on an example how the framework can be applied. • The benefits, drawbacks and challenges of the framework application and the need for further development are discussed.

  5. Sustainability assessment framework for scenarios – SAFS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arushanyan, Yevgeniya; Ekener, Elisabeth; Moberg, Åsa

    2017-01-01

    To address current challenges regarding sustainable development and support planning for this form of development, new learning about different possible futures and their potential sustainability implications is needed. One way of facilitating this learning is by combining the futures studies and sustainability assessment (SA) research fields. This paper presents the sustainability assessment framework for scenarios (SAFS), a method developed for assessing the environmental and social risks and opportunities of future scenarios, provides guidelines for its application and demonstrates how the framework can be applied. SAFS suggests assessing environmental and social aspects using a consumption perspective and a life cycle approach, and provides qualitative results. SAFS does not suggest any modelling using precise data, but instead offers guidelines on how to carry out a qualitative assessment, where both the process of assessing and the outcome of the assessment are valuable and can be used as a basis for discussion. The benefits, drawbacks and potential challenges of applying SAFS are also discussed in the paper. SAFS uses systems thinking looking at future societies as a whole, considering both environmental and social consequences. This encourages researchers and decision-makers to consider the whole picture, and not just individual elements, when considering different futures. - Highlights: • The paper presents a new methodological framework for qualitative sustainability assessment of future scenarios with transformative changes. • The framework suggests qualitative assessment with consumption perspective and a life cycle approach. • The paper presents the framework and provides guidelines for its application. • The paper demonstrates on an example how the framework can be applied. • The benefits, drawbacks and challenges of the framework application and the need for further development are discussed.

  6. Cooling methods of station blackout scenario for LWR plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-08-15

    The objective of this study is to analyze the cooling method of station blackout scenario for both the BWR and PWR plants by RELAP5 code and to check the validity of the cooling method proposed by the utilities. In the BWR plant cooling scenario, the Reactor Core Isolation Cooling System (RCIC), which is operated with high pressure steam from the reactor, injects cooling water into the reactor to keep the core water level. The steam generated in the core is released into the suppression pool at containment vessel to condense. To restrict the containment vessel pressure rising, the ventilation from the wet-well is operated. The scenario is analyzed by RELAP5 code. In the PWR plant scenario, the primary pressure is decreased by the turbine-driven auxiliary feed water system operated with secondary side steam of the steam generators (SGs). And the core cooling is kept by the natural circulation flow at the primary loop. From the RELAP5 code analysis, it was shown that the primary system cooling was practicable by using the turbine-driven auxiliary feed water system. (author)

  7. Cooling methods of station blackout scenario for LWR plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2012-01-01

    The objective of this study is to analyze the cooling method of station blackout scenario for both the BWR and PWR plants by RELAP5 code and to check the validity of the cooling method proposed by the utilities. In the BWR plant cooling scenario, the Reactor Core Isolation Cooling System (RCIC), which is operated with high pressure steam from the reactor, injects cooling water into the reactor to keep the core water level. The steam generated in the core is released into the suppression pool at containment vessel to condense. To restrict the containment vessel pressure rising, the ventilation from the wet-well is operated. The scenario is analyzed by RELAP5 and CONTEMPT-LT code. In the PWR plant scenario, the primary pressure is decreased by the turbine-driven auxiliary feed water system operated with secondary side steam of the steam generators (SGs). And the core cooling is kept by the natural circulation flow at the primary loop. The analytical method of un-uniform flow behavior among the SG U-tubes, which affects the natural circulation flow rate, is developed. (author)

  8. Trans-generational plasticity in response to immune challenge is constrained by heat stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roth, Olivia; Landis, Susanne H

    2017-06-01

    Trans-generational plasticity (TGP) is the adjustment of phenotypes to changing habitat conditions that persist longer than the individual lifetime. Fitness benefits (adaptive TGP) are expected upon matching parent-offspring environments. In a global change scenario, several performance-related environmental factors are changing simultaneously. This lowers the predictability of offspring environmental conditions, potentially hampering the benefits of TGP. For the first time, we here explore how the combination of an abiotic and a biotic environmental factor in the parental generation plays out as trans-generational effect in the offspring. We fully reciprocally exposed the parental generation of the pipefish Syngnathus typhle to an immune challenge and elevated temperatures simulating a naturally occurring heatwave. Upon mating and male pregnancy, offspring were kept in ambient or elevated temperature regimes combined with a heat-killed bacterial epitope treatment. Differential gene expression (immune genes and DNA- and histone-modification genes) suggests that the combined change of an abiotic and a biotic factor in the parental generation had interactive effects on offspring performance, the temperature effect dominated over the immune challenge impact. The benefits of certain parental environmental conditions on offspring performance did not sum up when abiotic and biotic factors were changed simultaneously supporting that available resources that can be allocated to phenotypic trans-generational effects are limited. Temperature is the master regulator of trans-generational phenotypic plasticity, which potentially implies a conflict in the allocation of resources towards several environmental factors. This asks for a reassessment of TGP as a short-term option to buffer environmental variation in the light of climate change.

  9. A world of differences, the normative EOS-scenarios. Final report of a study to found the normative scenarios of the project Energy research scenarios of the Energy Study Centre (ECN, Petten, Netherlands). Een wereld van verschil, de normatieve EOS-scenario's. Eindrapport van een studie ter onderbouwing van de normatieve scenario's van het project Energie Onderzoek Scenario's van het Energie Studie Centrum (ECN, Petten)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dinkelman, G.

    1987-11-01

    Three competing political and economical 'concepts of control' which underlie three normative energy-scenarios are described. The aim of the literature-research carried out for this report was to make the original scenarios more recognizable, and to find out which groups could be expected to support them. The concepts of control bear the names 'Dynamic and growth', 'Dirigation and blockbuilding' and 'Shared development'. They can be seen, so is argued, as competing perspectives on a so-called 'post-Fordist' world. The three concepts of control differ on what they see as common interests and the way they should be looked after. Topics in the description are: the desired rate of European political and economical integration, the borders of Europe, Europe's position in the world, the acceptance of new technologies, the goals they should be used for, and perceived relationships between energy, environment and economy. The scenarios show what happens if these three concepts of control become hegemonic without being forced to compromises. For all three scenarios a short sketch is given of the corresponding dominating energy- and environmental policy and of future relationships within OECD and between OECD on the one hand and NIC's/LDC's on the other. The conclusion of the report is that the ideological differences between the neoliberalism of 'Dynamic and growth' and the green, direct-democracy-politics of 'Shared development' are not as big as they were in the seventies. Especially on the new policy-areas like technology, energy and environment they get closer. But this does not mean that the concept of 'Dirigation and blockbuilding' can be put completely aside. Its goal of economic equality and its emphasis on government dirigation may become more attractive again if it comes out that market regulation leads to a dual society and that it was state-intervention (by

  10. Environmental Impact of End-of-Life Tires: Life Cycle Assessment Comparison of Three Scenarios from a Case Study in Valle Del Cauca, Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oscar O. Ortíz-Rodríguez

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Life Cycle Assessment methodology has been applied to estimate diverse environmental impacts of different usage alternatives for worn-out tires at the end of their useful life in a case study at the Department of Valle del Cauca, Colombia. Different real scenarios were compared, which allowed for the assessment of the best environmental option for the management of worn-out tires. A method developed in the Institute of Environmental Sciences at University of Leiden, better known as CML-2001, was used to calculate the environmental impact indicators. The results show that the incineration of whole tires in cement plants, and the activities of grinding and floor manufacturing from granulated rubber, exhibited the best indicators, especially in terms of environmental load avoidance through the recovery of materials. Finally, the categories of depletion of the ozone layer, acidification, global warming potential, depletion of abiotic resources, and photochemical ozone formation revealed that the strongest environmental impacts are associated with retreading and the production of multipart asphalt. This is due to the use of synthetic rubber in the former alternative, and of liquid asphalt, gravel, and diesel consumption in the latter.

  11. Reduction of acidification from electricity. Generating industries in Taiwan by Life Cycle Assessment and Monte Carlo optimization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Ying-Hsien; Lin, Sue-Jane; Lewis, Charles

    2009-01-01

    Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a rather common tool for reducing environmental impacts while striving for cleaner processes. This method yields reliable information when input data is sufficient; however, in uncertain systems Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is used as a means to compensate for insufficient data. The MC optimization model was constructed from environmental emissions, process parameters and operation constraints. The results of MC optimization allow for the prediction of environmental performance and the opportunity for environmental improvement. The case study presented here focuses on the acidification improvement regarding uncertain emissions and on the available operation of Taiwan's power plants. The boundary definitions of LCA were established for generation, fuel refining and mining. The model was constructed according to objective functional minimization of acidification potential, base loading, fuel cost and generation mix constraints. Scenario simulations are given the different variation of fuel cost ratios for Taiwan. The simulation results indicate that fuel cost was the most important parameter influencing the acidification potential for seven types of fired power. Owing to the low operational loading, coal-fired power is the best alternative for improving acidification. The optimal scenario for acidification improvement occurred at 15% of the fuel cost. The impact decreased from 1.39 to 1.24 kg SO 2 -eq./MWh. This reduction benefit was about 10.5% lower than the reference year. Regarding eco-efficiency at an optimum scenario level of 5%, the eco-efficiency value was - 12.4 $US/kg SO 2 -eq. Considering the environmental and economical impacts, results indicated that the ratio of coal-fired steam turbine should be reduced. (author)

  12. Entropy generation as an environmental impact indicator and a sample application to freshwater ecosystems eutrophication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diaz-Mendez, S.E.; Sierra-Grajeda, J.M.T.; Hernandez-Guerrero, A.; Rodriguez-Lelis, J.M.

    2013-01-01

    Generally speaking, an ecosystem is seen as a complex set, it is composed by different biotic and abiotic parts. Naturally, each part has specifics functions related with mass and energy, those functions have influence between the parts directly and indirectly, and these functions are subjected to the basic laws of thermodynamics. If each part of the ecosystem is taken as thermodynamics system its entropy generation could be evaluated, then the total entropy generation of the ecosystem must be sum of the entropy generation in each part, to be in accordance with the Gouy-Stodola theorem. With this in mind, in this work an environmental indicator, for any kind of ecosystems, can be determined as a function of the ratio of total entropy generation for reference state, for instance a healthy forest; and the entropy generation of new different state of the same ecosystem can take, for instance a deforestation. Thus, thermodynamics concepts are applied to study the eutrophication of freshwater ecosystems; the strategy is based on techniques that integrate assumptions of the methodology of entropy generation inside ecosystems. The results show that if the amount of entropy generation is small respect a reference state; the sustainability of the ecosystem will be greater. - Highlights: • We estimate an environmental impact indicator using the concept of entropy generation. • It can be a useful tool for assessing the environmental impacts of the society over the environment. • It can be a useful tool to compare new technologies and improve their efficiencies even more. • It can help for a better understanding of the concept of entropy and its role among various classes of processes. • It can help to reduce environmental concerns and increase the sustainability of the planet

  13. Preliminary identification of scenarios that may affect the escape and transport of radionuclides from the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, Southeastern New Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guzowski, R V [Science Applications International Corporation, Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1990-04-15

    The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant is being evaluated as a location for the disposal of defense-generated transuranic waste. One of the criteria to be used to determine the suitability of the disposal system is compliance with the Containment Requirements established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. One step in determining compliance is to identify the combinations of events and processes (scenarios) defining possible future states of the disposal system that may affect the escape of radionuclides from the repository and transport to the accessible environment. A list of previously identified events and processes was adapted to a scenario-selection procedure that develops a comprehensive set of mutually exclusive scenarios through the use of a logic diagram. Four events resulted in the development of 16 scenarios. Preliminary analyses indicate that four scenarios result in no releases. Six scenarios consist of combinations of drilling into a room, drilling into a room and a brine reservoir, and emplacement of withdrawal wells downgradient from the repository. Six additional scenarios consist of these same six combinations with the addition of potash mining and the associated surface subsidence. The 12 retained scenarios will be screened based on consequence and/or probability of occurrence. During the course of performance assessment, additional data and information will be used to revise and update these preliminary scenarios where appropriate. (author)

  14. Preliminary identification of scenarios that may affect the escape and transport of radionuclides from the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, Southeastern New Mexico

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guzowski, R.V.

    1990-04-01

    The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant is being evaluated as a location for the disposal of defense-generated transuranic waste. One of the criteria to be used to determine the suitability of the disposal system is compliance with the Containment Requirements established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. One step in determining compliance is to identify the combinations of events and processes (scenarios) defining possible future states of the disposal system that may affect the escape of radionuclides from the repository and transport to the accessible environment. A list of previously identified events and processes was adapted to a scenario-selection procedure that develops a comprehensive set of mutually exclusive scenarios through the use of a logic diagram. Four events resulted in the development of 16 scenarios. Preliminary analyses indicate that four scenarios result in no releases. Six scenarios consist of combinations of drilling into a room, drilling into a room and a brine reservoir, and emplacement of withdrawal wells downgradient from the repository. Six additional scenarios consist of these same six combinations with the addition of potash mining and the associated surface subsidence. The 12 retained scenarios will be screened based on consequence and/or probability of occurrence. During the course of performance assessment, additional data and information will be used to revise and update these preliminary scenarios where appropriate. (author)

  15. Reduction of environmental impact by FR cycle deployment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Katoh, Atsushi; Nakai, Ryodai

    2005-03-01

    In this report radioactive waste generations in terms of disposal volume or disposal field equivalent, and the radioactive toxicity of HLW are evaluated to clarify the promising nuclear scenario for the sake of realization of sustainable society in 21st century. This analysis was conducted based on the outcomes of the mass flow evaluation tool 'FAMILY-21' which calculates a material balance for TRU in the following scenarios. 1) LWR once-through scenario, 2) Pu partly recycling in LWR scenario, 3) Pu full recycling in LWR scenario, 4) FBR deployment scenario, 5) Interim storage scenario. The result shows that the cumulative area of low level radioactive waste (LLW) disposal field at 2150 in the FR cycle deployment scenario is 1.8 times larger than that in the LWR once-through scenario. The area of LLW disposal field at 2150 is a few km 2 in all the scenarios. In contrast, the cumulative area of high level radioactive waste (HLW) disposal field at 2150 in the FR cycle deployment scenario is less than half of that in the LWR once-through scenario. The area of HLW disposal field at 2150 is about 10 times of the area of LLW disposal field. Moreover, the FR deployment reduces the radioactive toxicity of HLW by U/TRU recycling, and shortens the period to decay under the natural Uranium toxicity level. Considering the area of radioactive waste disposal field and the radioactive toxicity of HLW, the advantage of the FR cycle deployment is indicated quantitatively from the viewpoint of the environmental burden reduction. (author)

  16. Economic and environmental balancing in response to NEPA for electric power generating plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bender, M [Oak Ridge National Lab., Tenn. (USA)

    1976-03-01

    A discussion is given of principles that can provide guidance in responding to the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) in the planning of electric power generating plants. The environmental assessment procedure described is initiated by considering alternative decisions in concern for environmental assessment. Having defined the decision paths, the assessment proceeds in a four-phase sequence: correlation of the alternatives with resource and marketing restraints; screening the alternatives for environmental adequacy and specifying the needed technological refinement; examination of the economics in terms of energy costs; comparing the energy cost with the environmental index and selecting the combination that best reflects the current social preference.

  17. No-arbitrage bounds for financial scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Geyer, Alois; Hanke, Michael; Weissensteiner, Alex

    2014-01-01

    We derive no-arbitrage bounds for expected excess returns to generate scenarios used in financial applications. The bounds allow to distinguish three regions: one where arbitrage opportunities will never exist, a second where arbitrage may be present, and a third, where arbitrage opportunities...

  18. Diagnostic health risk assessment of electronic waste on the general population in developing countries' scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frazzoli, Chiara; Orisakwe, Orish Ebere; Dragone, Roberto; Mantovani, Alberto

    2010-01-01

    E-waste is the generic name for technological waste. Even though aspects related to e-waste environmental pollution and human exposure are known, scientific assessments are missing so far on the actual risks for health sustainability of the general population exposed to e-waste scenarios, such as illicit dumping, crude recycling and improper treatment and disposal. In fact, further to occupational and direct local exposure, e-waste scenarios may impact on the environment-to-food chain, thus eliciting a widespread and repeated exposure of the general population to mixtures of toxicants, mainly toxic chemical elements, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and persistent organic pollutants. In the absence of any clear policy on e-waste flow management, the situation in the e-waste receiver countries may become quite scary; accordingly, here we address a diagnostic risk assessment of health issues potentially elicited by e-waste related mixtures of toxicants. Scientific evidence available so far (mainly from China) is discussed with special attention to the concept of health sustainability, i.e. the poor health burden heritage perpetuated through the mother-to-child dyad. Endocrine disruption and neurotoxicity are specifically considered as examples of main health burden issues relevant to perpetuation through life cycle and across generations; toxicological information are considered along with available data on environmental and food contamination and human internal exposure. The risk from exposure to e-waste related mixtures of toxicants of vulnerable subpopulation like breast-fed infants is given special attention. The diagnostic risk assessment demonstrates how e-waste exposure poses an actual public health emergency, as it may entrain significant health risks also for generations to come. Exposure scenarios as well as specific chemicals of major concern may vary in different contexts; for instance, only limited information is available on e-waste related exposures in

  19. Least cost 100% renewable electricity scenarios in the Australian National Electricity Market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elliston, Ben; MacGill, Iain; Diesendorf, Mark

    2013-01-01

    Least cost options are presented for supplying the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) with 100% renewable electricity using wind, photovoltaics, concentrating solar thermal (CST) with storage, hydroelectricity and biofuelled gas turbines. We use a genetic algorithm and an existing simulation tool to identify the lowest cost (investment and operating) scenarios of renewable technologies and locations for NEM regional hourly demand and observed weather in 2010 using projected technology costs for 2030. These scenarios maintain the NEM reliability standard, limit hydroelectricity generation to available rainfall, and limit bioenergy consumption. The lowest cost scenarios are dominated by wind power, with smaller contributions from photovoltaics and dispatchable generation: CST, hydro and gas turbines. The annual cost of a simplified transmission network to balance supply and demand across NEM regions is a small proportion of the annual cost of the generating system. Annual costs are compared with a scenario where fossil fuelled power stations in the NEM today are replaced with modern fossil substitutes at projected 2030 costs, and a carbon price is paid on all emissions. At moderate carbon prices, which appear required to address climate change, 100% renewable electricity would be cheaper on an annual basis than the replacement scenario

  20. Indeterminacy, bifurcations and chaos in an overlapping generations model with negative environmental externalities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antoci, Angelo; Sodini, Mauro

    2009-01-01

    We analyze an overlapping generations model where agent's welfare depends on three goods: leisure, environmental quality and consumption of a private good. We assume that the production process of the private good depletes the natural resource and that the consumption of the private good alleviates the damages due to environmental deterioration. In such context, we show that individuals' reactions to environmental deterioration may lead to complex dynamics, in particular to the rise of periodic orbits and chaos.

  1. Participatory scenario planning in place-based social-ecological research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rozas, Elisa Oteros; Martín-López, Berta; Daw, Tim M.

    2015-01-01

    Participatory scenario planning (PSP) is an increasingly popular tool in place-based environmental research for evaluating alternative futures of social-ecological systems. Although a range of guidelines on PSP methods are available in the scientific and grey literature, there is a need to reflect......, hence facilitating the appropriate uptake of such scenario tools in the future. We analyzed 23 PSP case studies conducted by the authors in a wide range of social-ecological settings by exploring seven aspects: (1) the context; (2) the original motivations and objectives; (3) the methodological approach...... of PSP, particularly when tailored to shared objectives between local people and researchers, has enriched environmental management and scientific research through building common understanding and fostering learning about future planning of social-ecological systems. However, PSP still requires greater...

  2. Environmental benefits of distributed generation with and without emissions trading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsikalakis, A.G.; Hatziargyriou, N.D.

    2007-01-01

    The need for improving energy efficiency and reducing CO 2 emissions and other pollutants, as well as the restructuring of energy markets has favoured the increase of distributed energy resources (DER). The co-ordinated control of these sources comprising renewable energy sources (RES) and distributed generators (DG) characterised by higher efficiencies and lower emissions compared to central thermal generation, when based on coal or oil provide several environmental benefits. These benefits can be quantified based on DER participation in the CO 2 emission trading market. This paper provides a method to calculate emissions savings achieved by the marginal operation of DER in liberalised market conditions using available emissions data. The participation of DER in emissions trading markets is also studied, with respect to profits, pollutants decrease and change in operating schedules. It is shown that the operation of DER can significantly reduce pollutants, provided sufficient remuneration from CO 2 emission trading market participation is provided. Moreover, it is shown that using average emissions values to calculate the environmental benefits of DER might provide misleading results. (author)

  3. Steam Generator Tube Integrity Program: Surry Steam Generator Project, Hanford site, Richland, Benton County, Washington: Environmental assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1980-03-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has placed a Nuclear Regulatory Research Order with the Richland Operations Office of the US Department of Energy (DOE) for expanded investigations at the DOE Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) related to defective pressurized water reactor (PWR) steam generator tubing. This program, the Steam Generator Tube Integrity (SGTI) program, is sponsored by the Metallurgy and Materials Research Branch of the NRC Division of Reactor Safety Research. This research and testing program includes an additional task requiring extensive investigation of a degraded, out-of-service steam generator from a commercial nuclear power plant. This comprehensive testing program on an out-of-service generator will provide NRC with timely and valuable information related to pressurized water reactor primary system integrity and degradation with time. This report presents the environmental assessment of the removal, transport, and testing of the steam generator along with decontamination/decommissioning plans

  4. Long-term scenario alternatives and their implications: LEAP model application of Panama's electricity sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McPherson, Madeleine; Karney, Bryan

    2014-01-01

    Panama recently enacted a new law, which aims to promote wind energy by mandating long term power purchase tenders. The implications of this new law lend some uncertainty to Panama's electricity development pathway. This paper quantitatively analyzes the current status of power generation in Panama, and explores various potential future scenarios and the associated impacts on the system marginal cost, global warming potential, and resource diversity index. To this end, this study applies the scenario development methodology developed by Schwartz in the context of the energy-economic modeling platform ‘Long-range Energy Alternative Planning’ (LEAP). Four scenarios are developed and analyzed. The Business as Usual scenario extrapolates the electricity generation trend that has been observed over the last decade; it is compared to three alternative scenarios which have more specific objectives. Scenario 1 encourages climate mitigation without incorporating new technologies in the generation mix, Scenario 2 maximizes resource diversity, and Scenario 3 minimizes global warming potential. For each scenario, the composition of the electricity generation profile, system marginal cost, global warming potential, and resource diversity is predicted quantitatively. These scenarios to not attempt to forecast likely developments, but rather illuminate the tradeoffs that different development pathways entail. - Highlights: • This paper models Panama's electricity sector using the LEAP model platform. • Four scenarios are developed and analyzed. • Impact analysis includes: system cost, global warming potential, resource diversity index. • Panama can achieve a sustainable grid with existing technologies and costs. • There is an tradeoff between the resource diversity and global warming potential

  5. Scenario Development and Delphi Application in Life Cycle Assessment for Assessing Environmental Impact of New Technology Case Study: Removal of Wind Turbines Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Devina Fitrika Dewi

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Certain technology is intended to create eco-efficient products or process or is developed as answer to the recent challenge. This kind of technology consequently can also create another impact therefore it shall be assessed and analyzed.The focus of the study is on assessment method namely Life Cycle Analysis (LCA, Scenario development and Delphi application. The objective is to understand benefits and drawbacks of the combined methodology and observe practicality of its implementation for assessing new technology. The distinctive feature comes from the combination of social and technological foresight (as Delphi application and future studies (as Scenario development which are applied in the environmental assessment of a product (by Life Cycle Analysis.The utilization of LCA-Scenario-Delphi case study as an explanatory example is presented in the Removal Wind Turbines Project by the Danish Energy Agency. The wind turbine is considered new technology with some of it phases are yet to occur, for example: removal of turbines after phase out stage. Technology Assessment by LCA-Scenario-Delphi is complicated procedure, but necessary to validate the results. The drawbacks of this procedure are extensive time it consumes and the dependency on public participation and/or expert willingness to participate. Nonetheless, its advantages are due to its interactive feature; integration of knowledge from different areas of expertise and its assessment’s characteristic which focuses on process.

  6. Transportation energy scenario analysis technical report No. 1: examination of four existing scenarios. [Projections for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernard, M. J.; LaBelle, S. J.; Millar, M.; Walbridge, E. W.

    1978-03-01

    This project aims to provide the DOE Division of Transportation Energy Conservation (TEC) with a long-range forecasting framework in which to evaluate potential changes to the U.S. Transportation system. This initial report examines four existing, but diverse, 50-year scenarios of the future. It describes the scenarios and summarizes the changes in the major transportation system variables that would occur through the year 2025 in each scenario. Projections of variables of interest to TEC are explored, including passenger or ton miles and energy consumption. Each is reported for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025 under four scenarios: success, moderate economic growth, energy crisis, and transformation. The philosophy of this project is that the transportation system must support future lifestyles; by examining potential future lifestyles the required transportation system changes can be deduced. The project: (a) develops a set of scenarios that span likely futures; (b) describes the lifestyles in each scenario in order; (c) determines the characteristics of the transportation system supporting those lifestyles; (d) indicates transportation technologies and policies necessary in that system; and (e) derives the energy characteristics of that system. The implications of the four existing scenarios are examined with emphasis on current TEC electric-vehicle development. This preliminary investigation will be followed by detailed-scenario building (modifying existing scenarios or developing new ones) and generation of lifestyles and transportation system demands under each of the scenarios. This work will be reported in October 1978.

  7. Socio-economic Scenarios in Climate Assessments (IC11). Synthesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Drunen, M.; Berkhout, F.

    2011-09-01

    It is widely recognised that projections of social and economic futures are circumscribed by irreducible uncertainties and ignorance. A common analytical response is to develop scenarios that map a range of alternative possible outcomes. The application of scenarios in climate assessments in the Netherlands was investigated in this report, focusing on the use of the socio-economic scenarios 'Welvaart en Leefomgeving' (WLO - The Future of the Dutch Built Environment). This research was carried out within the Climate Changes Spatial Planning (CcSP) programme. WLO scenarios have been applied in climate assessment studies. WLO generates figures and data that are useful. Nevertheless we encountered several CcSP projects that did not apply any socio-economic scenarios, whilst this seemed necessary based on their objectives. In general, climate assessments make little sense if socio-economic developments are not taken into account. Interestingly, some of the studies that did apply socio-economic scenarios, picked only one or two of the scenarios generated by WLO. From a theoretical point of view this selective 'shopping' may lead to a tunnel vision, because it is impossible to estimate which scenario is more probable than the others. At the other hand it is often impractical to explore all four scenarios. The time horizon of WLO was in several cases too short for climate assessments. As it is probable that the structure of society has changed significantly by 2040, it is difficult to quantitatively support the storylines as was done in WLO, because many model assumptions are not correct anymore. Possibly it is better to take a backcasting approach for the second half of the century for the purpose of the CcSP programme. The two case studies described in this report provide examples of good practice that are likely to be useful in future projects that deal with scenarios. In addition, this study produced an interactive website (www.climatescenarios.nl) that provides key

  8. Performance assessment of hybrid power generation systems: Economic and environmental impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Sharafi, Abdullah; Yilbas, Bekir S.; Sahin, Ahmet Z.; Ayar, T.

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • A double-step optimization tool for hybrid power generation systems is introduced. • Economical aspects and the impact of the system on the environment are considered. • A hybrid system comprises PV array-wind turbine-battery-diesel engine is considered. • Real time analysis of the system for full year simulation is carried out. • System optimum configuration at point where total performance index is maximized. - Abstract: This article aims to introduce a double-step performance assessment tool for the hybrid power generation systems. As a case study, a hybrid system comprising PV array, wind-turbine, battery bank and diesel engine is incorporated in hourly based simulations to meet power demand of a residence unit at Dhahran area, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Different indicators related to economical and environmental performance assessments of the hybrid system have been considered. In the economic related assessment case, cost of electricity, energy excess percentage, and operating life cycle indicators have been considered and combined to develop the first overall performance index. Renewable contribution, renewable source availability and environmental impact indicators have been considered for the environmental assessment case and they are combined in the second performance index. For either economical or environmental cases, the optimum configuration of the system is achieved by maximizing the first and second overall performance indicators. This innovative optimization tools gives the designer the freedom to assign suitable weights associated with economical aspect, environmental impact, governmental regulations and social impact, for the first and second overall performance indicators, and combine them in the total performance index. The optimum system configuration is at the point where the total performance index is maximized.

  9. Mediterranean energy transition: 2040 scenario. Executive summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ben Jannet Allal, Houda; Guarrera, Lisa; Karbuz, Sohbet; Menichetti, Emanuela; Lescoeur, Bruno; El Agrebi, Hassen; Harrouch, Hamdi; Campana, Dominique; Greaume, Francois; Bedes, Christelle; Bolinches, Christine; Meraud, Thierry; Tappero, Denis; Bosseboeuf, Didier; Lechevin, Bruno; Abaach, Hassan; Damasiotis, Markos; Darras, Marc; Hajjaji, Mourad; Keramane, Abdenour; Khalfallah, Ezzedine; Mourtada, Adel; Osman, Nejib

    2016-06-01

    The stakes of embarking upon a Mediterranean Energy Transition is essential for countries from both shores of the Mediterranean, especially taking into account the increasing demographics (+105 million by 2040) and the fast growing energy demand in an increasingly constrained context both in terms of energy availability and environmental impacts of conventional energy sources uses. There is a huge, but yet untapped, potential for energy efficiency and renewable energy sources, especially in the South Mediterranean region. By improving energy efficiency and deploying renewables on a large scale, the Mediterranean region would reduce tensions on energy security for importing countries, improve opportunities for exporting ones and reduce energy costs and environmental damages for the whole region. Embarking on an energy transition path will also help improve social welfare in the region and contribute to job creation, among other positive externalities. OME regularly conducts prospective works to 2040, assessing the impact of prolonging current energy trends. Under this Business-As-Usual or so-called 'Conservative' Scenario the situation would evolve critically on all counts over the next 25 years: doubling of energy demand and tripling of electricity consumption, soaring infrastructure and import bills (+443 GW to be installed and doubling of the fossil-fuel imports) and a critical rise in carbon emissions (+45%). Such a scenario, based essentially on fossil fuels, would put further strain on the environment and exacerbate geopolitical tensions in the region. A change of energy trajectory is therefore necessary for all Mediterranean countries to help change current trends and to increase efforts promoting energy efficiency and renewable energies. In this context, MEDENER and OME, based on the 2030-2050 visions of ADEME and the prospective tools of OME, have decided to jointly investigate a Mediterranean Energy Transition Scenario, an ambitious scenario that

  10. Towards a user's guide to scenarios - a report on scenario types and scenario techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boerjeson, Lena; Hoejer, Mattias; Dreborg, Karl-Henrik; Finnveden, Goeran [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Environmental Strategies Research - fms; Ekvall, Tomas [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Dept. of Energy and Environment

    2005-11-01

    Futures studies consist of a vast variation of studies and approaches. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of for what purposes scenarios are useful and what methods and procedures are useful for furthering these purposes. We present a scenario typology with an aim to better suit the context in which the scenarios are used. The scenario typology is combined with a new way of looking at scenario techniques, i.e. practical methods and procedures for scenario development. Finally, we look at the usefulness of scenarios in the light of the scenario typology and the scenario techniques. As a start, we distinguish between three main categories of scenario studies. The classification is based on the principal questions we believe a user may want to pose about the future. The resolution is then increased by letting each category contain two different scenario types. These are distinguished by different angles of approach of the questions defining the categories. The first question, What will happen?, is responded to by Predictive scenarios. In fact, the response to a question like this will always be conditional, e.g. of a stable and peaceful world, or by a certain continuous development of some kind. We have utilized this fact when defining the two predictive scenario types, Forecasts and What-if scenarios. The second question, What can happen?, is responded to by Explorative scenarios. The scenarios are thus explorations of what might happen in the future, regardless of beliefs of what is likely to happen or opinions of what is desirable. This category is further divided into external and strategic scenarios. The final question, How can a specific target be reached?, is responded to by Normative scenarios. Such studies are explicitly normative, since they take a target as a starting point. They are often directed towards how the target could be reached. This category is divided into preserving and transforming scenarios. If the user wants to

  11. Energy-environment scenarios for Senegal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lazarus, M. [Stockholm Environment Inst. Boston, MA (United States); Diallo, S.; Sokona, Y. [Environment and Development in the Third World, Dakar (Senegal)

    1994-06-01

    This paper explores the energy and environmental dimensions of proposed energy strategies for Senegal. We do so using a quantitative analytical framework, and begin to explore how useful such numerical methods can be in an African context. Based on past studies and the environmental database system, we develop a set of emission factors for use in Senegal. Finally, we address ways to integrate the often unquantifiable environmental and economics cost and benefits for environmentally informed decision making. In summary, we find that polices intended to promote the substitution of liquid petroleum gas (LPG) for charcoal in households can actually reduce greenhouse gas emissions while contributing to the improvement of more important near-term environmental problems. At the same time, the impacts of LPG substitution on increasing the oil import bill is relatively small when compared to other petroleum product usage.Improving end-use energy efficiency also shows promise, suggesting that new demand-side initiatives are needed. Overall, the integrated energy-environment scenario approach can reveal combined policy impacts that might otherwise be missed in a single project or policy approach. 13 figs, 5 tabs

  12. Distributed power generation, a market assessment; Marktaspekte der verteilten Energieerzeugung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weller, T.

    2001-03-01

    The article assesses in the light of current energy policy the development of distributed power generation in the future, and resulting impacts on the structure the deregulated power industry in Germany. The author defines the essential characteristics of distributed power generation as opposed to centralized power generation, explains the various existing and emerging power generation technologies, and discusses market penetration scenarios and marketing opportunities in the context of technological developments, environmental and energy efficiency aspects, and consumer attitudes. (orig./CB) [German] Der Artikel bietet wichtige Definitionen fuer eine zielfuehrende Diskussion ueber das gesamte Gebiet der verteilten und dezentralen Energieerzeugung. Er versucht, teilweise emotional besetzte Themen auf sachlich begruendbare Grundannahmen zurueckzufuehren und zieht erste Folgerungen fuer das Zusammenwirken von erneuerbaren Energien und verteilter Energieerzeugung. (orig./CB)

  13. Environmental radiation monitoring data for Point Lepreau Generating Station, 1988. Annual publication

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sutherland, J K

    1989-01-01

    Annual report presenting a compilation of the 1988 environmental radiation monitoring program data from samples collected around the Point Lepreau Nuclear Generating Station (PLNGS) and at reference stations remote from PLNGS. About 1,700 analyses were made on 1,200 samples to monitor environmental radiation, including air filters, airborne water vapour, sea water, well water, milk, beach sediments, clams, fish, lobster, dulse, crabs, scallops and lichen. Background radiation is measured by thermoluminescence dosimetry.

  14. Environmental radiation monitoring data for Point Lepreau Generating Station, 1987. Annual publication

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sutherland, J K

    1988-01-01

    Annual report presenting a compilation of the 1987 environmental radiation monitoring program data from samples collected around the Point Lepreau Nuclear Generating Station (PLNGS) and at reference stations remote from PLNGS. About 1,800 analyses were made on 1,300 samples to monitor environmental radiation, including air filters, airborne water vapour, sea water, well water, milk, beach sediments, clams, fish, lobster, dulse, crabs, scallops and periwinkles. Background radiation is measured by thermoluminescence dosimetry.

  15. Integration of software for scenario exploration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oyamada, Kiyoshi; Ikeda, Takao

    1999-03-01

    The scenario exploration methodology using shadow models is a variation of the environmental simulation method. Key aspect of the scenario exploration is the use of shadow models which are not corresponding to any specific assumptions on physical processes and, instead, abstract their general features relevant to the effects on nuclide transport in a general manner so that benefit of using simulation approach can be maximized. In developing the shadow models, all the modelling options that have not yet been denied by the experts are kept and parametrized in a very general framework. This, in turn, enables one to treat various types of the uncertainty in performance assessment, i.e., scenario uncertainty, conceptual model uncertainty, mathematical model uncertainty and parameter uncertainty, in a common framework of uncertainty / sensitivity analysis. Objective of the current study is to review / modify the tools which have been developed separately and, thence, not fully consistent from one to the other and to integrate them into a unified methodology and software. Tasks for this are; 1. modification / integration of tools for scenario exploration of nuclide transport in the EBS and the near-field host rock, 2. verification of the software modified and integrated, 3. installation of the software at JNC. (author)

  16. Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Palazzo, Amanda; Vervoort, Joost M.; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel

    2017-01-01

    levels, they have to be connected to an exploration of drivers and challenges informed by regional expertise.In this paper, we present scenarios for West Africa developed by regional stakeholders and quantified using two global economic models, GLOBIOM and IMPACT, in interaction with stakeholder......-generated narratives and scenario trends and SSP assumptions. We present this process as an example of linking comparable scenarios across levels to increase coherence with global contexts, while presenting insights about the future of agriculture and food security under a range of future drivers including climate...... change.In these scenarios, strong economic development increases food security and agricultural development. The latter increases crop and livestock productivity leading to an expansion of agricultural area within the region while reducing the land expansion burden elsewhere. In the context of a global...

  17. Interdisciplinary Environmental-health Science Throughout Disaster Lifecycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plumlee, G. S.; Morman, S. A.; Hoefen, T. M.

    2014-12-01

    Potential human health effects from exposures to hazardous disaster materials and environmental contamination are common concerns following disasters. Using several examples from US Geological Survey environmental disaster responses (e.g., 2001 World Trade Center, mine tailings spills, 2005 Hurricane Katrina, 2007-2013 wildfires, 2011 Gulf oil spill, 2012 Hurricane Sandy, 2013 Colorado floods) and disaster scenarios (2011 ARkStorm, 2013 SAFRR tsunami) this presentation will illustrate the role for collaborative earth, environmental, and health science throughout disaster lifecycles. Pre-disaster environmental baseline measurements are needed to help understand environmental influences on pre-disaster health baselines, and to constrain the magnitude of a disaster's impacts. During and following disasters, there is a need for interdisciplinary rapid-response and longer-term assessments that: sample and characterize the physical, chemical, and microbial makeup of complex materials generated by the disasters; fingerprint material sources; monitor, map, and model dispersal and evolution of disaster materials in the environment; help understand how the materials are modified by environmental processes; and, identify key characteristics and processes that influence the exposures and toxicity of disaster materials to humans and the living environment. This information helps emergency responders, public health experts, and cleanup managers: 1) identify short- and long-term exposures to disaster materials that may affect health; 2) prioritize areas for cleanup; and 3) develop appropriate disposal solutions or restoration uses for disaster materials. By integrating lessons learned from past disasters with geospatial information on vulnerable sources of natural or anthropogenic contaminants, the environmental health implications of looming disasters or disaster scenarios can be better anticipated, which helps enhance preparedness and resilience. Understanding economic costs of

  18. Preliminary identification of potentially disruptive scenarios at the Greater Confinement Disposal Facility, Area 5 of the Nevada Test Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guzowski, R.V.; Newman, G.

    1993-12-01

    The Greater Confinement Disposal location is being evaluated to determine whether defense-generated transuranic waste buried at this location complies with the Containment Requirements established by the US Environmental Protection Agency. One step in determining compliance is to identify those combinations of events and processes (scenarios) that define possible future states of the disposal system for which performance assessments must be performed. An established scenario-development procedure was used to identify a comprehensive set of mutually exclusive scenarios. To assure completeness, 761 features, events, processes, and other listings (FEPS) were compiled from 11 references. This number was reduced to 205 primarily through the elimination of duplications. The 205 FEPs were screened based on site-specific, goal-specific, and regulatory criteria. Four events survived screening and were used in preliminary scenario development: (1) exploratory drilling penetrates a GCD borehole, (2) drilling of a withdrawal/injection well penetrates a GCD borehole, (3) subsidence occurs at the RWMS, and (4) irrigation occurs at the RWMS. A logic diagram was used to develop 16 scenarios from the four events. No screening of these scenarios was attempted at this time. Additional screening of the currently retained events and processes will be based on additional data and information from site-characterization activities. When screening of the events and processes is completed, a final set of scenarios will be developed and screened based on consequence and probability of occurrence

  19. Different scenarios to reduce greenhouse gas emissions of thermal power stations in Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zabihian, F.; Fung, A.S.

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to examine greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction potentials in the Canadian electricity generation sector through fuel switching and the adoption of advanced power generation systems. To achieve this purpose, six different scenarios were introduced. In the first scenario existing power stations' fuel was switched to natural gas. Existing power plants were replaced by natural gas combined cycle (NGCC), integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC), solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC), hybrid SOFC, and SOFC-IGCC hybrid power stations in scenarios number 2 to 6, respectively. (author)

  20. Integrating environmental equity, energy and sustainability: A spatial-temporal study of electric power generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Touche, George Earl

    The theoretical scope of this dissertation encompasses the ecological factors of equity and energy. Literature important to environmental justice and sustainability are reviewed, and a general integration of global concepts is delineated. The conceptual framework includes ecological integrity, quality human development, intra- and inter-generational equity and risk originating from human economic activity and modern energy production. The empirical focus of this study concentrates on environmental equity and electric power generation within the United States. Several designs are employed while using paired t-tests, independent t-tests, zero-order correlation coefficients and regression coefficients to test seven sets of hypotheses. Examinations are conducted at the census tract level within Texas and at the state level across the United States. At the community level within Texas, communities that host coal or natural gas utility power plants and corresponding comparison communities that do not host such power plants are tested for compositional differences. Comparisons are made both before and after the power plants began operating for purposes of assessing outcomes of the siting process and impacts of the power plants. Relationships between the compositions of the hosting communities and the risks and benefits originating from the observed power plants are also examined. At the statewide level across the United States, relationships between statewide composition variables and risks and benefits originating from statewide electric power generation are examined. Findings indicate the existence of some limited environmental inequities, but they do not indicate disparities that confirm the general thesis of environmental racism put forth by environmental justice advocates. Although environmental justice strategies that would utilize Title VI of the 1964 Civil Rights Act and the disparate impact standard do not appear to be applicable, some findings suggest potential

  1. Robust Performance of Marginal Pacific Coral Reef Habitats in Future Climate Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeman, Lauren A

    2015-01-01

    Coral reef ecosystems are under dual threat from climate change. Increasing sea surface temperatures and thermal stress create environmental limits at low latitudes, and decreasing aragonite saturation state creates environmental limits at high latitudes. This study examines the response of unique coral reef habitats to climate change in the remote Pacific, using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model version 1 alongside the species distribution algorithm Maxent. Narrow ranges of physico-chemical variables are used to define unique coral habitats and their performance is tested in future climate scenarios. General loss of coral reef habitat is expected in future climate scenarios and has been shown in previous studies. This study found exactly that for most of the predominant physico-chemical environments. However, certain coral reef habitats considered marginal today at high latitude, along the equator and in the eastern tropical Pacific were found to be quite robust in climate change scenarios. Furthermore, an environmental coral reef refuge previously identified in the central south Pacific near French Polynesia was further reinforced. Studying the response of specific habitats showed that the prevailing conditions of this refuge during the 20th century shift to a new set of conditions, more characteristic of higher latitude coral reefs in the 20th century, in future climate scenarios projected to 2100.

  2. Robust Performance of Marginal Pacific Coral Reef Habitats in Future Climate Scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lauren A Freeman

    Full Text Available Coral reef ecosystems are under dual threat from climate change. Increasing sea surface temperatures and thermal stress create environmental limits at low latitudes, and decreasing aragonite saturation state creates environmental limits at high latitudes. This study examines the response of unique coral reef habitats to climate change in the remote Pacific, using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model version 1 alongside the species distribution algorithm Maxent. Narrow ranges of physico-chemical variables are used to define unique coral habitats and their performance is tested in future climate scenarios. General loss of coral reef habitat is expected in future climate scenarios and has been shown in previous studies. This study found exactly that for most of the predominant physico-chemical environments. However, certain coral reef habitats considered marginal today at high latitude, along the equator and in the eastern tropical Pacific were found to be quite robust in climate change scenarios. Furthermore, an environmental coral reef refuge previously identified in the central south Pacific near French Polynesia was further reinforced. Studying the response of specific habitats showed that the prevailing conditions of this refuge during the 20th century shift to a new set of conditions, more characteristic of higher latitude coral reefs in the 20th century, in future climate scenarios projected to 2100.

  3. Camera-laser fusion sensor system and environmental recognition for humanoids in disaster scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Inho; Oh, Jaesung; Oh, Jun-Ho; Kim, Inhyeok

    2017-01-01

    This research aims to develop a vision sensor system and a recognition algorithm to enable a humanoid to operate autonomously in a disaster environment. In disaster response scenarios, humanoid robots that perform manipulation and locomotion tasks must identify the objects in the environment from those challenged by the call by the United States’ Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, e.g., doors, valves, drills, debris, uneven terrains, and stairs, among others. In order for a humanoid to undertake a number of tasks, we con- struct a camera–laser fusion system and develop an environmental recognition algorithm. Laser distance sensor and motor are used to obtain 3D cloud data. We project the 3D cloud data onto a 2D image according to the intrinsic parameters of the camera and the distortion model of the lens. In this manner, our fusion sensor system performs functions such as those performed by the RGB-D sensor gener- ally used in segmentation research. Our recognition algorithm is based on super-pixel segmentation and random sampling. The proposed approach clusters the unorganized cloud data according to geometric characteristics, namely, proximity and co-planarity. To assess the feasibility of our system and algorithm, we utilize the humanoid robot, DRC-HUBO, and the results are demonstrated in the accompanying video.

  4. Camera-laser fusion sensor system and environmental recognition for humanoids in disaster scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Inho [Institute for Human and Machine Cognition (IHMC), Florida (United States); Oh, Jaesung; Oh, Jun-Ho [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST), Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Inhyeok [NAVER Green Factory, Seongnam (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-06-15

    This research aims to develop a vision sensor system and a recognition algorithm to enable a humanoid to operate autonomously in a disaster environment. In disaster response scenarios, humanoid robots that perform manipulation and locomotion tasks must identify the objects in the environment from those challenged by the call by the United States’ Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, e.g., doors, valves, drills, debris, uneven terrains, and stairs, among others. In order for a humanoid to undertake a number of tasks, we con- struct a camera–laser fusion system and develop an environmental recognition algorithm. Laser distance sensor and motor are used to obtain 3D cloud data. We project the 3D cloud data onto a 2D image according to the intrinsic parameters of the camera and the distortion model of the lens. In this manner, our fusion sensor system performs functions such as those performed by the RGB-D sensor gener- ally used in segmentation research. Our recognition algorithm is based on super-pixel segmentation and random sampling. The proposed approach clusters the unorganized cloud data according to geometric characteristics, namely, proximity and co-planarity. To assess the feasibility of our system and algorithm, we utilize the humanoid robot, DRC-HUBO, and the results are demonstrated in the accompanying video.

  5. The GEO-3 Scenarios 2002-2032. Quantification and Analysis of Environmental Impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bakkes, J.; Potting, J.; Kemp-Benedict, E.; Raskin, P.; Masui, T.; Rana, A.; Nellemann, C.; Rothman, D.

    2004-01-01

    The four contrasting visions of the world's next three decades as presented in the third Global Environment Outlook (GEO-3) have many implications for policy - from hunger to climate change and from freshwater issues to biodiversity. The four scenarios analysed are Markets First, Policy First, Security First, Sustainability First. Presenting a deeper analysis than the original GEO-3 report, this Technical Report quantifies the impacts of the scenarios for all 19 GEO 'sub-regions', such as Eastern Africa and Central Europe. Regional impacts are discussed in the context of sustainable development. The report summary compares the impacts of the four scenarios across regions - and for the world as a whole - in the light of internationally agreed targets including those in the Millennium Declaration where applicable. It provides an account of the analytical methods, key assumptions, models and other tools, along with the approaches used in the analyses. Based on the methods and results, the report looks back on the process of producing the forward-looking analysis for GEO-3. Were all analytical centres on the same track? Did the approach adopted for GEO-3 contribute to the overall GEO objective of strengthening global-regional involvement and linkages?

  6. New generation LDHI with an improved environmental profile[Low dosage hydrate inhibitors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fu, Bob; Houston, Christopher; Spratt, Tony

    2005-07-01

    A new generation of low dosage hydrate inhibitors has been developed. These inhibitors are specially designed and synthesized in the laboratory in order to achieve a high level of performance as hydrate inhibitors and to improve their environmental profiles. These new inhibitors have been extensively evaluated in the laboratory using high pressure rocking cells. They function like anti-agglomerants by preventing the formation of large hydrate crystals or agglomerates. The resulting hydrate crystals are extremely tiny and finely dispersed in the hydrocarbon stream. In addition to controlling the hydrate crystal growth, these novel molecules demonstrate the ability to extend the induction time to onset of hydrate formation. When compared to the previous generations, the improved performance as well as the favorable environmental characteristics further expand the window for LDHI applications in the fields. (Author)

  7. Automata learning algorithms and processes for providing more complete systems requirements specification by scenario generation, CSP-based syntax-oriented model construction, and R2D2C system requirements transformation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinchey, Michael G. (Inventor); Margaria, Tiziana (Inventor); Rash, James L. (Inventor); Rouff, Christopher A. (Inventor); Steffen, Bernard (Inventor)

    2010-01-01

    Systems, methods and apparatus are provided through which in some embodiments, automata learning algorithms and techniques are implemented to generate a more complete set of scenarios for requirements based programming. More specifically, a CSP-based, syntax-oriented model construction, which requires the support of a theorem prover, is complemented by model extrapolation, via automata learning. This may support the systematic completion of the requirements, the nature of the requirement being partial, which provides focus on the most prominent scenarios. This may generalize requirement skeletons by extrapolation and may indicate by way of automatically generated traces where the requirement specification is too loose and additional information is required.

  8. Fieldwork, Co-Teaching and Co-Generative Dialogue in Lower Secondary School Environmental Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahmawati, Yuli; Koul, Rekha

    2016-01-01

    This article reports one of the case studies in a 3-year longitudinal study in environmental science education. This case explores the process of teaching about ecosystems through co-teaching and co-generative dialogue in a Year-9 science classroom in Western Australia. Combining with co-teaching and co-generative dialogue aimed at transforming…

  9. Emissions reduction scenarios in the Argentinean Energy Sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Di Sbroiavacca, Nicolás; Nadal, Gustavo; Lallana, Francisco; Falzon, James; Calvin, Katherine

    2016-01-01

    pathways, the models agree that fossil fuels, in particular natural gas, will remain an important part of the electricity mix in the core baseline scenario. According to the models there is agreement that the introduction of a carbon price will lead to a decline in absolute and relative shares of aggregate fossil fuel generation. However, predictions vary as to the extent to which coal, nuclear and renewable energy play a role. - Highlights: • A scenario that incorporates mitigation measures considered most feasible by relevant Argentinean stakeholders generates a CO_2e emissions reduction of 16% compared to BAU. • This scenario has a total additional cumulative cost of $22.8 Billion (2005 USD) along the period 2010–2050 • A high CO_2 price scenario in LEAP generates a CO_2e emissions reduction of 11.3% compared to the baseline • A high CO_2 price scenario in TIAM-ECN and GCAM generates reductions in CO_2e emissions of 37% and 94% respectively. The main reason for this difference between models includes varying assumptions about technology cost and availability, CO_2 storage capacity, and the ability to import bioenergy. • Under climate policy, natural gas remains an important part of the energy mix, and although models agree that aggregate and proportional fossil fuel use declines, predictions vary as to the extent coal, nuclear and renewable energy play a role moving forward.

  10. Comparing long term energy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cumo, M.; Simbolotti, G.

    2001-01-01

    Major projection studies by international organizations and senior analysts have been compared with reference to individual key parameters (population, energy demand/supply, resources, technology, emissions and global warming) to understand trends and implications of the different scenarios. Then, looking at the long term (i.e., 2050 and beyond), parameters and trends have been compared together to understand and quantify whether and when possible crisis or market turbulence might occur due to shortage of resources or environmental problems [it

  11. Draft Environmental Impact Statement: Proposed Tenaska, Washington II Generation Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-08-01

    BPA is considering whether to purchase electrical power from a proposed privately-owned combustion-turbine electrical generation plant in Washington. The plant would be fired by natural gas and would use combined-cycle technology to generate 240 average megawatts (aMW) of energy. The plant would be developed, owned, and operated by Tenaska Power Partners, Inc. The project would be located about 19 kilometers (12 miles) southeast of downtown Tacoma in the Frederickson Industrial Area, Pierce County. The proposed plant would occupy about half of a 6.4-hectare (16-acre) parcel and would be consistent with the industrial character of its surroundings. The proposed site is currently undeveloped and zoned for industrial use by the county. Main environmental concerns identified in the scoping process and evaluated in the Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) include: potential air quality impacts such as emissions and their contribution to the ''greenhouse'' effect; potential health and safety impacts, such as nuisance odors, plant safety, visibility and heat-emission systems which may affect low-flying planes and potential health effects of electric and magnetic fields, and potential water quality impacts such as the amount of wastewater to be discharged, the source and amount of water required for plant operation. These and other issues are discussed in detail in the EIS. The proposed project already includes many features designed to reduce environmental impacts. Based on investigations performed for the EIS, no significant unavoidable adverse environmental impacts associated with the proposed project were identified, and no evidence emerged to suggest that the proposed action is particularly controversial. The EIS is being mailed to numerous agencies, groups, and individuals. There will be a 45-day comment period, during which a Public Hearing will be held

  12. Wuskwatim generation project : Canadian Environmental Assessment Act comprehensive study report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-10-01

    This study report described the plan by Manitoba Hydro and the Nisichawayasihk Cree Nation (NCN) to construct a new 200- megawatt (MW) generating station at Taskinigup Falls on the Burntwood River, near the outlet of Wuskwatim Lake. This hydroelectric power project will allow Manitoba Hydro to meet its projected energy needs within the next two decades as identified in its 2002/03 Power Resource Plan. It will also allow Manitoba Hydro and NCN to obtain additional export revenues and profits by advancing the in-service date of the Project from 2020 to 2009. A formal environmental assessment is required under the Canadian Environmental Assessment Act (CEAA) because Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) has determined that the Project would cause fish habitat losses requiring an authorization under the Fisheries Act. Many of the structures to be built in navigable waters would also require formal approval under the Navigable Waters Protection Act (NWPA), which has prompted this application of the CEAA. This environmental assessment report has been prepared by DFO in consultation with Transport Canada and other federal authorities concerned. It provides a summary of the Wuskwatim Generation Project and the environment in which it will be built and operated. In addition, the results of public consultations are discussed. It presents an assessment of the Project's influence on fish and fish habitat, birds, species at risk, human health (local air quality, quality of drinking water and consumption of fishery products), navigation, use of renewable resources, and current use of lands and resources for traditional purposes by Aboriginal persons (hunting, trapping, gathering, subsistence fishing and heritage sites). It was concluded that the proposed Project, as defined by the scope of the study, is not likely to cause significant adverse environmental effects. 45 refs., 5 tabs., 13 figs., 3 appendices

  13. Regional Issue Identification and Assessment program (RIIA). Environmental impacts and issues of the EIA MID-MID scenario: Federal Region I (New England)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brainard, J.; Munson, J.S.

    1979-01-01

    The impacts described here for 1985 and 1990 are based on a national energy projection which assumes medium energy demand and fuel supply through 1990 but does not incorporate the policies of the National Energy Act (NEA). This scenario, referred to as the Projection Series C or the TRENDLONG MID-MID scenario, is one of six possible energy futures developed by the DOE Energy Information Administration for the Department's 1977 Annual Report to Congress. It was chosen as representative of the official DOE national energy projections when this project was initiated, prior to the passage of the National Energy Act. Since the RIIA program is part of an ongoing review of the regional impact of energy policies, the next phase will examine the National Energy Act (NEA) and initiatives suggested by the President's second National Energy Plan. However, since coal utilization increases under the NEA, in general, impacts identified in the TRENDLONG Series C Scenario should provide a framework for the discussion of impacts by NEA. The environmental impacts discussed in this volume are for Federal Region I (Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut). However, there are nine companion volumes, one for each of the other Federal Regions

  14. Comparison of hydro-environmental impacts for ebb-only and two-way generation for a Severn Barrage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmadian, Reza; Falconer, Roger A.; Bockelmann-Evans, Bettina

    2014-10-01

    Marine renewable energy is playing an increasing significant role in many parts of the world, mainly due to a rise in the awareness of climate change, and its detrimental effects, and the increasing cost of natural resources. The Severn Estuary, located between South West England and South Wales, has a tidal range of up to 14 m which makes it the second highest tidal range in the world. There are a number of barrage proposals amongst various marine renewable energy schemes proposed to be built in the estuary. The Cardiff-Weston STPG (Severn Tidal Power Group) Barrage, which would be one of the world's largest tidal renewable energy schemes if built, is one of the most publicised schemes to-date. This barrage would generate about 17 TWh/annum of power, which is approximately 5% of the UK's electricity consumption, whilst causing significant hydro-environmental and ecological impact on the estuary. This study mainly focuses on investigating the hydro-environmental impacts of the STPG barrage for the option of two-way generation, and compares this with the commonly investigated option of ebb-only generation. The impacts of the barrage were modelled by implementing a linked 1-D/2-D hydro-environmental model, with the capability of modelling several key environmental processes. The model predictions show that the hydro-environmental impacts of the barrage on the Severn Estuary and Bristol Channel, such as changes in the maximum velocity and reduction in suspended sediment and bacteria levels, were less significant for the two-way generation scheme when compared with the corresponding impacts for ebb-only generation.

  15. Simulating forensic casework scenarios in experimental studies: The generation of footwear marks in blood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McElhone, Rachel L; Meakin, Georgina E; French, James C; Alexander, Tracy; Morgan, Ruth M

    2016-07-01

    A study was designed to investigate the effects of external variables, including blood type, flooring surface, footwear tread depth and blood dryness, on the appearance of blood-based footwear marks, with particular reference to simulating a specific casework scenario. Results showed that footwear marks left in human blood tended to be of greater quality than those in equine blood, highlighting a potential issue in applying data generated with equine blood to human bloodstains in casework. Footwear tread effects were also dependent on blood type, but the type of flooring surface did not affect the appearance of the mark. Under some conditions, as the blood dried, the amount of detail retained from footwear contact decreased. These results provide the beginnings of an empirical evidence base to allow a more accurate interpretation of blood-based footwear marks in forensic casework. When applied to a disputed bloodstain in a specific case, these results also demonstrate the importance of such experiments in narrowing the range of explanations possible in the interpretation of forensic evidence. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Optimization of environmental management strategies through a dynamic stochastic possibilistic multiobjective program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiaodong; Huang, Gordon

    2013-02-15

    Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from municipal solid waste (MSW) management facilities have become a serious environmental issue. In MSW management, not only economic objectives but also environmental objectives should be considered simultaneously. In this study, a dynamic stochastic possibilistic multiobjective programming (DSPMP) model is developed for supporting MSW management and associated GHG emission control. The DSPMP model improves upon the existing waste management optimization methods through incorporation of fuzzy possibilistic programming and chance-constrained programming into a general mixed-integer multiobjective linear programming (MOP) framework where various uncertainties expressed as fuzzy possibility distributions and probability distributions can be effectively reflected. Two conflicting objectives are integrally considered, including minimization of total system cost and minimization of total GHG emissions from waste management facilities. Three planning scenarios are analyzed and compared, representing different preferences of the decision makers for economic development and environmental-impact (i.e. GHG-emission) issues in integrated MSW management. Optimal decision schemes under three scenarios and different p(i) levels (representing the probability that the constraints would be violated) are generated for planning waste flow allocation and facility capacity expansions as well as GHG emission control. The results indicate that economic and environmental tradeoffs can be effectively reflected through the proposed DSPMP model. The generated decision variables can help the decision makers justify and/or adjust their waste management strategies based on their implicit knowledge and preferences. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Environmental review report of an electrical generation facility to be located at the Oaks Sanitary Landfill

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldstein, D.; Ross, J.; Mountain, D.; Kahal, M.

    1998-05-01

    The Bentech Group, Inc. (Bentech) applied for a certificate of public convenience and necessity (CPCN) to construct and operate an electric generating system at the Oaks Sanitary Landfill in Laytonsville, Maryland. The focus of the environmental review is to evaluate potential impacts of the proposed electric generation system to air quality, noise, terrestrial, ecological, ground water, surface water, socioeconomic, aesthetic, and cultural resources. This document presents the results of the environmental review analysis, and includes the State's recommended license conditions for operating the electric generating system, which the PSC incorporated into the CPCN

  18. Environmental impact assessment of solid waste management in Beijing City, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao Yan; Christensen, Thomas H.; Lu Wenjing; Wu Huayong; Wang Hongtao

    2011-01-01

    The environmental impacts of municipal solid waste management in Beijing City were evaluated using a life-cycle-based model, EASEWASTE, to take into account waste generation, collection, transportation, treatment/disposal technologies, and savings obtained by energy and material recovery. The current system, mainly involving the use of landfills, has manifested significant adverse environmental impacts caused by methane emissions from landfills and many other emissions from transfer stations. A short-term future scenario, where some of the landfills (which soon will reach their capacity because of rising amount of waste in Beijing City) are substituted by incinerators with energy recovery, would not result in significant environmental improvement. This is primarily because of the low calorific value of mixed waste, and it is likely that the incinerators would require significant amounts of auxiliary fuels to support combustion of wet waste. As for the long-term future scenario, efficient source separation of food waste could result in significant environmental improvements, primarily because of increase in calorific value of remaining waste incinerated with energy recovery. Sensitivity analysis emphasized the importance of efficient source separation of food waste, as well as the electricity recovery in incinerators, in order to obtain an environmentally friendly waste management system in Beijing City.

  19. The environmental comparison of landfilling vs. incineration of MSW accounting for waste diversion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Assamoi, Bernadette; Lawryshyn, Yuri

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Residential waste diversion initiatives are more successful with organic waste. ► Using a incineration to manage part of the waste is better environmentally. ► Incineration leads to more power plant emission offsets. ► Landfilling all of the waste would be preferred financially. - Abstract: This study evaluates the environmental performance and discounted costs of the incineration and landfilling of municipal solid waste that is ready for the final disposal while accounting for existing waste diversion initiatives, using the life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology. Parameters such as changing waste generation quantities, diversion rates and waste composition were also considered. Two scenarios were assessed in this study on how to treat the waste that remains after diversion. The first scenario is the status quo, where the entire residual waste was landfilled whereas in the second scenario approximately 50% of the residual waste was incinerated while the remainder is landfilled. Electricity was produced in each scenario. Data from the City of Toronto was used to undertake this study. Results showed that the waste diversion initiatives were more effective in reducing the organic portion of the waste, in turn, reducing the net electricity production of the landfill while increasing the net electricity production of the incinerator. Therefore, the scenario that incorporated incineration performed better environmentally and contributed overall to a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions because of the displacement of power plant emissions; however, at a noticeably higher cost. Although landfilling proves to be the better financial option, it is for the shorter term. The landfill option would require the need of a replacement landfill much sooner. The financial and environmental effects of this expenditure have yet to be considered.

  20. Promoting energy-saving and environmentally friendly generation dispatching model in China: Phase development and case studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ding, Yi; Yang, Hongliang

    2013-01-01

    Energy saving and environmental protection are important conditions for the sustainable development of Chinese economy. However current widely used generation scheduling model based on predefined production quota and tariff results in heavy energy consumption and severe environment pollution. From 2007, as concerns over energy shortage and environmental pollution, the Chinese authorities introduced the implementation of energy-saving generation dispatching model, which is an important approach to facilitating energy-saving and reduction of pollutant emission. The objective of implementing energy-saving generation dispatching model is to prioritize the use of renewable energy resources and new power plants with high efficiency without compromising power system security and reliability. This paper analyzes the necessity and feasibility of implementing energy-efficient and environmentally friendly generation scheduling models in China. The institutional and technical barriers impeding the implementation of energy-saving generation dispatching model are identified. The development of advanced energy-saving generation scheduling models towards competitive market models and phased planning programs are emphasized in this paper. The effectiveness and experience of provinces piloted energy-saving generation dispatching projects are also discussed. - Highlights: ► Introducing problems of current power generation scheduling model in China. ► Discussing necessity of implementing ESGD model and corresponding barriers. ► Proposing phased planning programs for developing ESGD models. ► Discussing the effectiveness and experience of provinces piloted ESGD projects

  1. Table 1: Biofuels simulation scenarios

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — A spreadsheet containing information used to generate Table 1. Agricultural Market sector results presented in the spreadsheet were generated elsewhere (non-EPA) and...

  2. A comparison of the newest scenarios for energy supply in Switzerland and their results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schucan, T.H.

    1984-09-01

    The author defines an energy scenario and considers several such scenarios for Switzerland. A presentation of perspectives is given, followed by an analysis of the scenario. Remarks are made on the energy economy and on the environmental loading (specific emissions for heat pumps and block heat power stations, total emission for the year 2020 and radiation loading for people and plants in Switzerland). (A.N.K.)

  3. Environmental epigenetics: A promising venue for developing next-generation pollution biomonitoring tools in marine invertebrates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suarez-Ulloa, Victoria; Gonzalez-Romero, Rodrigo; Eirin-Lopez, Jose M

    2015-09-15

    Environmental epigenetics investigates the cause-effect relationships between specific environmental factors and the subsequent epigenetic modifications triggering adaptive responses in the cell. Given the dynamic and potentially reversible nature of the different types of epigenetic marks, environmental epigenetics constitutes a promising venue for developing fast and sensible biomonitoring programs. Indeed, several epigenetic biomarkers have been successfully developed and applied in traditional model organisms (e.g., human and mouse). Nevertheless, the lack of epigenetic knowledge in other ecologically and environmentally relevant organisms has hampered the application of these tools in a broader range of ecosystems, most notably in the marine environment. Fortunately, that scenario is now changing thanks to the growing availability of complete reference genome sequences along with the development of high-throughput DNA sequencing and bioinformatic methods. Altogether, these resources make the epigenetic study of marine organisms (and more specifically marine invertebrates) a reality. By building on this knowledge, the present work provides a timely perspective highlighting the extraordinary potential of environmental epigenetic analyses as a promising source of rapid and sensible tools for pollution biomonitoring, using marine invertebrates as sentinel organisms. This strategy represents an innovative, groundbreaking approach, improving the conservation and management of natural resources in the oceans. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Environmental codes of practice for steam electric power generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-03-01

    The Design Phase Code is one of a series of documents being developed for the steam electric power generation industry. This industry includes fossil-fuelled stations (gas, oil and coal-fired boilers), and nuclear-powered stations (CANDU heavy water reactors). In this document, environmental concerns associated with water-related and solid waste activities of steam electric plants are discussed. Design recommendations are presented that will minimize the detrimental environmental effects of once-through cooling water systems, of wastewaters discharged to surface waters and groundwaters, and of solid waste disposal sites. Recommendations are also presented for the design of water-related monitoring systems and programs. Cost estimates associated with the implementation of these recommendations are included. These technical guides for new or modified steam electric stations are the result to consultation with a federal-provincial-industry task force

  5. Electricity generation and environmental externalities: Case studies, September 1995

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-09-28

    Electricity constitutes a critical input in sustaining the Nation`s economic growth and development and the well-being of its inhabitants. However, there are byproducts of electricity production that have an undesirable effect on the environment. Most of these are emissions introduced by the combustion of fossil fuels, which accounts for nearly 70 percent of the total electricity generated in the United States. The environmental impacts (or damages) caused by these emissions are labeled environmental ``externalities.`` Included in the generic term ``externality`` are benefits or costs resulting as an unintended byproduct of an economic activity that accrue to someone other than the parties involved in the activity. This report provides an overview of the economic foundation of externalities, the Federal and State regulatory approaches, and case studies of the impacts of the externality policies adopted by three States.

  6. Wind power scenario generation through state-space specifications for uncertainty analysis of wind power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Díaz, Guzmán; Gómez-Aleixandre, Javier; Coto, José

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • State space representations for simulating wind power plant output are proposed. • The representation of wind speed in state space allows structural analysis. • The joint model incorporates the temporal and spatial dependence structure. • The models are easily integrable into a backward/forward sweep algorithm. • Results evidence the remarkable differences between joint and marginal models. - Abstract: This paper proposes the use of state space models to generate scenarios for the analysis of wind power plant (WPP) generation capabilities. The proposal is rooted on the advantages that state space models present for dealing with stochastic processes; mainly their structural definition and the use of Kalman filter to naturally tackle some involved operations. The specification proposed in this paper comprises a structured representation of individual Box–Jenkins models, with indications about further improvements that can be easily performed. These marginal models are combined to form a joint model in which the dependence structure is easily handled. Indications about the procedure to calibrate and check the model, as well as a validation of its statistical appropriateness, are provided. Application of the proposed state space models provides insight on the need to properly specify the structural dependence between wind speeds. In this paper the joint and marginal models are smoothly integrated into a backward–forward sweep algorithm to determine the performance indicators (voltages and powers) of a WPP through simulation. As a result, visibly heavy tails emerge in the generated power probability distribution through the use of the joint model—incorporating a detailed description of the dependence structure—in contrast with the normally distributed power yielded by the margin-based model.

  7. Global energy scenarios, climate change and sustainable development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

    2003-01-01

    Energy scenarios provide a framework for exploring future energy perspectives, including various combinations of technology options and their implications. Many scenarios in the literature illustrate how energy system developments may affect global change. Examples are the new emissions scenarios by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the energy scenarios by the World Energy Assessment (WEA). Some of these scenarios describe energy futures that are compatible with sustainable development goals; such as improved energy efficiencies and the adoption of advanced energy supply technologies. Sustainable development scenarios are also characterized by low environmental impacts (at local, regional and global scales) and equitable allocation of resources and wealth. They can help explore different transitions toward sustainable development paths and alternative energy perspectives in general. The considerable differences in expected total energy requirements among the scenarios reflect the varying approaches used to address the need for energy services in the future and demonstrate effects of different policy frameworks, changes in human behavior and investments in the future, as well as alternative unfolding of the main scenario driving forces such as demographic transitions, economic development and technological change. Increases in research, development and deployment efforts for new energy technologies are a prerequisite for achieving further social and economic development in the world. Significant technological advances will be required, as well as incremental improvements in conventional energy technologies. In general, significant policy and behavioral changes will be needed during the next few decades to achieve more sustainable development paths and mitigate climate change toward the end of the century. (au)

  8. Environmental risk analysis for offshore oil and gas activities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brude, Odd Willy; Aspholm, Ole O.; Rudberg, Anders [Det Norske Veritas (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    Offshore oil and gas activities always have a risk for environmental impact due to potential accidental releases of oil and gas. The environmental risk can be calculated as a combination of the frequency of such accidents to occur and their environmental consequences in terms of environmental damage to habitats or populations. A method for conducting environmental risk analysis has been in use in Norwegian offshore waters for a decade, with a continuously refinement of methodology over the past years. This paper outlines the principles in the MIRA method and gives examples and discussions regarding use in different environmental compartments. The risk assessment starts with identification of oil spill scenarios with frequencies of potential release rates and spill durations. The next step is to model the oil drift for each accidental oil spill scenario. Drift and fate of oil is modeled probabilistic. Based on the oil spill scenarios and their probability of oil pollution, the potential environmental damage is quantified for each scenario. The endpoint of environmental damage is reduction of a population and the resulting recovery time (in years) for various species and habitats. Environmental risk levels are then evaluated against the operating companies' environmental acceptance criteria. (author)

  9. Scenario analysis for sustainable development of Chongming Island: water resources sustainability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ni, Xiong; Wu, Yanqing; Wu, Jun; Lu, Jian; Wilson, P Chris

    2012-11-15

    With the socioeconomic and urban development of Chongming Island (the largest alluvial island in the world), water demand is rapidly growing. To make adjustments to the water utilization structure of each industry, allocate limited water resources, and increase local water use efficiency, this study performed a scenario analysis for the water sustainability of Chongming Island. Four different scenarios were performed to assess the water resource availability by 2020. The growth rate for water demand will be much higher than that of water supply under a serious situation prediction. The water supply growth volume will be 2.22 × 10(8)m(3) from 2010 to 2020 under Scenario I and Scenario II while the corresponding water demand growth volume will be 2.74 × 10(8)m(3) and 2.64 × 10(8)m(3), respectively. There will be a rapid growth in water use benefit under both high and low development modes. The water use benefit will be about 50 CNY/m(3) under Scenarios I and II in 2020. The production structure will need to be adjusted for sustainable utilization of water resources. Sewage drainage but not the forest and grass coverage rate will be a major obstacle to future development and environmental quality. According to a multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, Scenario II is finally deemed to be the most desirable plan, suggesting that the policy of rapid socioeconomic development and better environmental protection may achieve the most sustainable development of Chongming Island in the future. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Creating pedestrian crash scenarios in a driving simulator environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chrysler, Susan T; Ahmad, Omar; Schwarz, Chris W

    2015-01-01

    In 2012 in the United States, pedestrian injuries accounted for 3.3% of all traffic injuries but, disproportionately, pedestrian fatalities accounted for roughly 14% of traffic-related deaths (NHTSA 2014 ). In many other countries, pedestrians make up more than 50% of those injured and killed in crashes. This research project examined driver response to crash-imminent situations involving pedestrians in a high-fidelity, full-motion driving simulator. This article presents a scenario development method and discusses experimental design and control issues in conducting pedestrian crash research in a simulation environment. Driving simulators offer a safe environment in which to test driver response and offer the advantage of having virtual pedestrian models that move realistically, unlike test track studies, which by nature must use pedestrian dummies on some moving track. An analysis of pedestrian crash trajectories, speeds, roadside features, and pedestrian behavior was used to create 18 unique crash scenarios representative of the most frequent and most costly crash types. For the study reported here, we only considered scenarios where the car is traveling straight because these represent the majority of fatalities. We manipulated driver expectation of a pedestrian both by presenting intersection and mid-block crossing as well as by using features in the scene to direct the driver's visual attention toward or away from the crossing pedestrian. Three visual environments for the scenarios were used to provide a variety of roadside environments and speed: a 20-30 mph residential area, a 55 mph rural undivided highway, and a 40 mph urban area. Many variables of crash situations were considered in selecting and developing the scenarios, including vehicle and pedestrian movements; roadway and roadside features; environmental conditions; and characteristics of the pedestrian, driver, and vehicle. The driving simulator scenarios were subjected to iterative testing to

  11. ENVIRONMENTAL TECHNOLOGY VERIFICATION REPORT: BIOQUELL, INC. CLARIS C HYDROGEN PEROXIDE GAS GENERATOR

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Environmental Technology Verification report discusses the technology and performance of the Clarus C Hydrogen Peroxide Gas Generator, a biological decontamination device manufactured by BIOQUELL, Inc. The unit was tested by evaluating its ability to decontaminate seven types...

  12. Environmental Impacts of Renewable Electricity Generation Technologies: A Life Cycle Perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heath, Garvin

    2016-01-13

    All energy systems impact the environment. Much has been learned about these environmental impacts from decades of research. Through systematic reviews, meta-analysis and original research, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory has been building knowledge about environmental impacts of both renewable and conventional electricity generation technologies. Evidence for greenhouse gas emissions, water and land use will be reviewed mostly from the perspective of life cycle assessment. Impacts from oil and natural gas systems will be highlighted. Areas of uncertainty and challenge will be discussed as suggestions for future research, as well as career opportunities in this field.

  13. Integrating environmental taxes on local air pollutants with fiscal reform in Hungary: simulations with a computable general equilibrium model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morris, Glenn E.; Revesz, Tamas; Zalai, Ernoe; Fucsko, Jozsef

    1999-01-01

    This paper describes the Fiscal Environmental Integration Model (FEIM) and its use to examine the merits of introducing a set of air pollutant emission taxes and stringent abatement requirements based on best commonly available control technology. These environmental protection strategies are examined both independently and in combination. In addition, Hungary has very high VAT, employment, and income tax rates and therefore might receive more than the usual advantage from using environmental tax revenues to reduce other taxes. We therefore also examine the economic and environmental implications of different uses of the revenues generated by the air pollutant emissions taxes. FEIM is a CGE model of the Hungarian economy that includes sectoral air pollution control costs functions and execution options that allow examination of the key policy choices involved. We developed and ran a baseline and seven scenarios with FEIM. The scenarios centered on introduction of environmental load fees (ELF) on emissions of SO 2 , NO x , and particulates and emission abatement requirements (EAR) for these pollutants. (Author)

  14. SAFRR Tsunami Scenarios and USGS-NTHMP Collaboration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, S.; Wood, N. J.; Cox, D. A.; Jones, L.; Cheung, K. F.; Chock, G.; Gately, K.; Jones, J. L.; Lynett, P. J.; Miller, K.; Nicolsky, D.; Richards, K.; Wein, A. M.; Wilson, R. I.

    2015-12-01

    Hazard scenarios provide emergency managers and others with information to help them prepare for future disasters. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, published in 2013, modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. It presented the modeled inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. It provided the basis for many exercises involving, among others, NOAA, the State of Washington, several counties in California, and the National Institutes of Health. The scenario led to improvements in the warning protocol for southern California and highlighted issues that led to ongoing work on harbor and marina safety. Building on the lessons learned in the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, another tsunami scenario is being developed with impacts to Hawaii and to the source region in Alaska, focusing on the evacuation issues of remote communities with primarily shore parallel roads, and also on the effects of port closures. Community exposure studies in Hawaii (Ratliff et al., USGS-SIR, 2015) provided background for selecting these foci. One complicated and important aspect of any hazard scenario is defining the source event. The USGS is building collaborations with the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) to consider issues involved in developing a standardized set of tsunami sources to support hazard mitigation work. Other key USGS-NTHMP collaborations involve population vulnerability and evacuation modeling.

  15. Kyoto Protocol Objectives in Croatia Energy Planning: Nuclear Scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duic, N.; Bogdan, Z.; Juretic, F.; Zeljko, M.

    2002-01-01

    Croatia as an Annex I country of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and a country that has pledged in the Annex B of the Kyoto Protocol to reduce its greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions by 5% from the pre-transition level by the budget period 2008-12, will have to envisage a new energy strategy. Compared to the energy consumption collapse in some transitional countries like Russia and Ukraine, Croatia has passed through a relatively limited long term reduction of GHG emissions since 1990 because of higher efficiency of its pre-transition economy. It is expected that in case of business as usual scenario it will breach the Kyoto target in 2003 since the demand for energy will be high, especially as the income continues to rise, particularly in domestic use for heating, for transport and for electricity generation. Several scenarios of developing energy system are compared from the point of view of GHG emissions. The energy sector that will most probably be the most influenced by the UNFCCC objectives is electricity generation. Several scenarios are compared. The cost-effective scenario expects a mixture of coal and gas fired power plants to be built to satisfy the new demand and to replace the old power plants that are being decommissioned. More Kyoto friendly scenario envisages the construction of mostly nuclear power plants in the future, while decommissioning the old ones as planned, and is compared to the others from the GHG emissions point of view. The conclusion is that by measures tackling only electricity generation it will not be possible to keep GHG emission under the Kyoto target level, but that choosing the nuclear option might reduce significantly the cost of compliance. (author)

  16. The GEO-3 Scenarios 2002-2032. Quantification and Analysis of Environmental Impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bakkes, J.; Potting, J. (eds.) [National Institute for Public Health and the Environment RIVM, Bilthoven (Netherlands); Henrichs, T. [Center for Environmental Systems Research CESR, University of Kassel, Kassel (Germany); Kemp-Benedict, E.; Raskin, P. [Stockholm Environment Institute SEI, Boston, MA (United States); Masui, T.; Rana, A. [National Institute for Environmental Studies NIES, Ibaraki (Japan); Nellemann, C. [United Nations Environment Programme UNEP, GRID Global and Regional Integrated Data centres Arendal, Lillehammer (Norway); Rothman, D. [International Centre for Integrative Studies ICIS, Maastricht University, Maastricht (Netherlands)

    2004-07-01

    The four contrasting visions of the world's next three decades as presented in the third Global Environment Outlook (GEO-3) have many implications for policy - from hunger to climate change and from freshwater issues to biodiversity. The four scenarios analysed are Markets First, Policy First, Security First, Sustainability First. Presenting a deeper analysis than the original GEO-3 report, this Technical Report quantifies the impacts of the scenarios for all 19 GEO 'sub-regions', such as Eastern Africa and Central Europe. Regional impacts are discussed in the context of sustainable development. The report summary compares the impacts of the four scenarios across regions - and for the world as a whole - in the light of internationally agreed targets including those in the Millennium Declaration where applicable. It provides an account of the analytical methods, key assumptions, models and other tools, along with the approaches used in the analyses. Based on the methods and results, the report looks back on the process of producing the forward-looking analysis for GEO-3. Were all analytical centres on the same track? Did the approach adopted for GEO-3 contribute to the overall GEO objective of strengthening global-regional involvement and linkages?.

  17. Use of life cycle assessment to evaluate environmental impacts associated with the management of sludge and biogas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    do Amaral, Karina Cubas; Aisse, Miguel Mansur; Possetti, Gustavo Rafael Collere; Prado, Marcelo Real

    2018-05-01

    Upflow anaerobic sludge blanket (UASB) reactors used in sewage treatment generate two by-products that can be reused: sludge and biogas. At the present time in Brazil, most of this resulting sludge is disposed of in sanitary landfills, while biogas is commonly burned off in low-efficiency flares. The aim of the present study was to use life cycle assessment to evaluate the environmental impacts from four different treatment and final destination scenarios for the main by-products of wastewater treatment plants. The baseline scenario, in which the sludge was sanitized using prolonged alkaline stabilization and, subsequently, directed toward agricultural applications and the biogas destroyed in open burners, had the most impact in the categories of global warming, terrestrial ecotoxicity, and human non-carcinogenic toxicity. The scenario in which heat resulting from biogas combustion is used to dry the sludge showed significant improvements over the baseline scenario in all the evaluated impact categories. The recovery of heat from biogas combustion decreased significantly the environmental impact associated with global warming. The combustion of dried sludge is another alternative to improve the sludge management. Despite the reduction of sludge volume to ash, there are environmental impacts inherent to ozone formation and terrestrial acidification.

  18. Regional issue identification and assessment (RIIA). Volume I. An analysis of the TRENDLONG MID-MID Scenario for Federal Region 10

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilfert, G. L.; Beckwith, M. A.; Cowan, C. E.; Keizur, G. R. [comps.

    1979-07-01

    Environmental, human health and safety, socioeconomic and institutional impacts of future energy development for Federal Region 10, which includes the states of Alaska, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington, are reported. It is concluded that the reduction in electric generating capacity of 568 MWe specified by the scenario for Alaska will not be realized because of institutional constraints and economic impacts. Development of 1000 MWe of geothermal generating capacity in Region 10 called for by the scenario will not be met by 1990. Besides technical feasibility and economic contraints, procedures in Oregon and Washington for securing leases and siting permits have not been fully developed. The location and impacts associated with construction and operation of oil and gas transshipment facilities such as the proposed pipeline to transport natural gas from fields in northern Alaska to the lower 48 states and the pipeline to transport Alaskan oil through Washington State to refineries in the Midwest are likely to be important issues in the Region. The addition of 7,951 MWe to the currently existing hydroelectric generating capacity of 29,990 MWe by 1990 will intensify competition among multiple uses of limited water resources of the Columbia and Snake River systems which drain Idaho, Oregon, and Washington. Irrigation, recreation, transportation, maintenance of wildlife habitats and anadromous fisheries conflict and compete with hydroelectric power generation. Public opposition to further development of nuclear power currently exists and seems to be intensifying in light of recent events. The scenario-specified addition of 4,816 MWe of nuclear generating capacity to the Region's current nuclear capacity of 2,016 MWe may be jeopardized by this opposition; specifically the 1,174 MWe addition to Oregon's nuclear capacity may not be realized.

  19. Horizon scanning for emergence of new viruses: from constructing complex scenarios to online games.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gale, P; Breed, A C

    2013-10-01

    Horizon scanning techniques can be developed to identify novel routes and sources for the emergence of viruses in the medium to long term. Central to horizon scanning is prediction of the complex scenarios through which viruses could emerge before they occur. One approach involves 'spidergrams' in which complex scenarios are generated by combining factors randomly selected from different categories of events. Spidergrams provide a framework for how different factors could interact, irrespective of the virus, and also enable testing of combinations not previously considered but which would be 'tested' in nature by a virus. The emergence of viruses through new routes is often related to changes, for example, in environmental and social factors, and the Internet will undoubtedly be used to identify long-term trends for consideration. In addition, online games may provide horizon scanners with suggestions for new routes and strategies that could be used by emerging viruses. © 2012 Crown copyright Reproduced with the permission of the Controller of Her Majesty's Stationery Office and Animal Health and Veterinary Laboratories Agency.

  20. Final environmental assessment and Finding-of-No-Significant-Impact - drum storage facility for interim storage of materials generated by environmental restoration operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-09-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) has prepared an Environmental Assessment (EA), DOE/EA-0995, for the construction and operation of a drum storage facility at Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site, Golden, Colorado. The proposal for construction of the facility was generated in response to current and anticipated future needs for interim storage of waste materials generated by environmental restoration operations. A public meeting was held on July 20, 1994, at which the scope and analyses of the EA were presented. The scope of the EA included evaluation of alternative methods of storage, including no action. A comment period from July 5, 1994 through August 4, 1994, was provided to the public and the State of Colorado to submit written comment on the EA. No written comments were received regarding this proposed action, therefore no comment response is included in the Final EA. Based on the analyses in the EA, DOE has determined that the proposed action would not significantly affect the quality of the human environment within the meaning of the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA). Therefore, preparation of an Environmental Impact Statement is not required and the Department is issuing this Finding of No Significant Impact

  1. Scenario study on the FBR deployment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ono, Kiyoshi; Kofuji, Hirohide; Otaki, Akira; Yonezawa, Shigeaki; Shinoda, Yoshihiko; Hirao, Kazunori; Ikegami, Tetsuo

    2000-12-01

    This study on success scenarios for the Fast Breeder Reactor (FBR) deployment was performed taking account of future situation of fossil, renewable and nuclear energies in Japan as well as the world from the viewpoints of the following four items; economics, environment, energy security and restriction of natural uranium resources. In the economics scenario, if carbon tax is added to generating cost of LNG, coal and oil and the economics of FBR cycle is competitive with LWR cycle in the future, FBR cycle will be expected to introduce as the middle and base load power plant. In the environment scenario, there is also any possibility that FBR cycle which can burn and transmute minor actinide and fission product elements will be introduced in order to reduce the burden of deposit facility and the toxicity of high-level waste. In the uranium resources restriction scenario, FBR cycle needs to be deployed at the latest in the middle of 21st century from the viewpoint of the restriction of natural uranium resources. This study was carried out in a part of JNC's feasibility study on commercialized FBR cycle system. (author)

  2. A generic open-source software framework supporting scenario simulations in bioterrorist crises.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falenski, Alexander; Filter, Matthias; Thöns, Christian; Weiser, Armin A; Wigger, Jan-Frederik; Davis, Matthew; Douglas, Judith V; Edlund, Stefan; Hu, Kun; Kaufman, James H; Appel, Bernd; Käsbohrer, Annemarie

    2013-09-01

    Since the 2001 anthrax attack in the United States, awareness of threats originating from bioterrorism has grown. This led internationally to increased research efforts to improve knowledge of and approaches to protecting human and animal populations against the threat from such attacks. A collaborative effort in this context is the extension of the open-source Spatiotemporal Epidemiological Modeler (STEM) simulation and modeling software for agro- or bioterrorist crisis scenarios. STEM, originally designed to enable community-driven public health disease models and simulations, was extended with new features that enable integration of proprietary data as well as visualization of agent spread along supply and production chains. STEM now provides a fully developed open-source software infrastructure supporting critical modeling tasks such as ad hoc model generation, parameter estimation, simulation of scenario evolution, estimation of effects of mitigation or management measures, and documentation. This open-source software resource can be used free of charge. Additionally, STEM provides critical features like built-in worldwide data on administrative boundaries, transportation networks, or environmental conditions (eg, rainfall, temperature, elevation, vegetation). Users can easily combine their own confidential data with built-in public data to create customized models of desired resolution. STEM also supports collaborative and joint efforts in crisis situations by extended import and export functionalities. In this article we demonstrate specifically those new software features implemented to accomplish STEM application in agro- or bioterrorist crisis scenarios.

  3. Generation Adequacy Report on the electricity supply-demand balance in France - 2005 Edition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    Under the terms of the Law of 10 February 2000, RTE is required to draw up a multi-annual Generation Adequacy Report on the electricity supply-demand balance in France. The present 2005 edition has been compiled in close conjunction with the working group in charge of long-term power generation pluri-annual investment programs at the French Directorate for Energy Demand and Markets, DIDEME. The purpose of RTE's Generation Adequacy Report is to quantify the additional electric generating facilities that need to be commissioned in the years ahead. It is based on various scenarios for the development of supply and demand, adopted on January 1, 2005, and covers the period 2006-2016. Three different consumption forecast scenarios have been used. All include a substantial drop in consumption by the Eurodif plant between 2010 and 2015. The two upper scenarios (called R1 and R2) fall within current trends, with annual growth of 1.7% and 1.5% until 2010 and a slowing down thereafter; they can be considered as equally likely to occur in the short-term. The low consumption growth scenario (R3) is intended to depict a context of environmental commitments. It is based on the assumption that demand side management initiatives will have an immediate impact, which makes it rather unlikely in the short-term. Under the reference scenario (R2), French domestic consumption, which was 468.5 TWh in 2004, reaches 508 TWh by 2010 and 552 TWh by 2020. Consumption at peak time in winter increases by around 1,000 MW per year. Up until 2016, France's fleet of generating facilities will be determined by a number of changes: the recommissioning of three of EDF's fuel-oil-fired units, the expected arrival of the EPR in 2012, and the definitive shutdown by 2015 of coal-fired plants that do not meet the requirements imposed by environmental regulations. In the field of renewable energy sources (RES), three different scenarios are considered. The main difference between them is the

  4. Investigating the feasibility of a reuse scenario for textile fibres recovered from end-of-life tyres.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landi, Daniele; Gigli, Silvia; Germani, Michele; Marconi, Marco

    2018-05-01

    The management of end-of-life tyres (ELTs) is regulated by several national and international legislations aiming to promote the recovery of materials and energy from this waste. The three main materials used in tyres are considered: rubber (main product), which is currently reused in other closed-loop applications; steel, which is used for the production of virgin materials; and textile fibres (approximately 10% by weight of ELTs), which are mainly incinerated for energy recovery (open-loop scenario). This study aims to propose and validate a new closed-loop scenario for textile fibres based on material reuse for bituminous conglomerates. The final objective is to verify the technical, environmental, financial, and economic feasibility of the proposed treatment process and reuse scenario. After characterization of the textile material, which is required to determine the technological feasibility, a specific process has been developed to clean, compact, and prepare the fibres for subsequent reuse. A life cycle assessment (LCA) has been carried out to quantify the environmental benefits of reusing the fibres. Finally, a cost benefit analysis based on the LCA results was conducted to establish the long-term financial and economic sustainability. From a technological point of view, the tyre textile fibres could be a promising substitute to the reinforcement cellulose commonly used in asphalts as long as the fibres are properly prepared (compaction and pellet production) for application in the standard bituminous conglomerate production process. From an environmental point of view, relevant benefits in terms of global warming potential and acidification potential reduction were observed in comparison with the standard incineration for energy recovery (respectively -86% and -45%). Moreover, the proposed scenario can be considered as financially viable in the medium to long term (cumulative generated cash flow is positive after the 5th year) and economically sustainable

  5. Energy scenarios for hydrogen production in Mexico; Escenarios energeticos para la produccion de hidrogeno en Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ortega V, E.; Francois L, J. L. [UNAM, Facultad de Ingenieria, Departamento de Sistemas Energeticos, Ciudad Universitaria, 04510 Mexico D. F. (Mexico)], e-mail: iqoren@gmail.com

    2009-10-15

    The hydrogen is a clean and very efficient fuel, its combustion does not produce gases of greenhouse effect, ozone precursors and residual acids. Also the hydrogen produced by friendly energy sources with the environment like nuclear energy could help to solve the global problems that it confronts the energy at present time. Presently work fuel cycles of hydrogen production technologies in Mexico are judged, by means of a structured methodology in the concept of sustainable development in its social, economic and environmental dimensions. The methodology is divided in three scenarios: base, Outlook 2030 and capture of CO{sub 2}. The first scenario makes reference to cycles analysis in a current context for Mexico, the second taking in account the demand projections reported by the IAEA in its report Outlook and the third scenario, capture of CO{sub 2}, the technologies are analyzed supposing a reduction in capture costs of 75%. Each scenario also has four cases (base, social, environmental and economic) by means of which the cycles are analyzed in the dimensions of sustainable development. For scenarios base and capture, results show that combination nuclear energy- reformed of gas it is the best alternative for cases base and economic. For social case, the evaluated better technology is the hydraulics, and for environmental case, the best option is represented by the regenerative thermochemistry cycles. The scenario Outlook 2030 show a favorable tendency of growth of renewable sources, being the aeolian energy the best technology evaluated in the cases base and environmental, the hydraulics technology in the social case and in the economic case the reformed of natural gas that uses nuclear heat. (Author)

  6. Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen correlations and Bell correlations in the simplest scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quan, Quan; Zhu, Huangjun; Fan, Heng; Yang, Wen-Li

    2017-06-01

    Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen (EPR) steering is an intermediate type of quantum nonlocality which sits between entanglement and Bell nonlocality. A set of correlations is Bell nonlocal if it does not admit a local hidden variable (LHV) model, while it is EPR nonlocal if it does not admit a local hidden variable-local hidden state (LHV-LHS) model. It is interesting to know what states can generate EPR-nonlocal correlations in the simplest nontrivial scenario, that is, two projective measurements for each party sharing a two-qubit state. Here we show that a two-qubit state can generate EPR-nonlocal full correlations (excluding marginal statistics) in this scenario if and only if it can generate Bell-nonlocal correlations. If full statistics (including marginal statistics) is taken into account, surprisingly, the same scenario can manifest the simplest one-way steering and the strongest hierarchy between steering and Bell nonlocality. To illustrate these intriguing phenomena in simple setups, several concrete examples are discussed in detail, which facilitates experimental demonstration. In the course of study, we introduce the concept of restricted LHS models and thereby derive a necessary and sufficient semidefinite-programming criterion to determine the steerability of any bipartite state under given measurements. Analytical criteria are further derived in several scenarios of strong theoretical and experimental interest.

  7. A linear programming model to optimize diets in environmental policy scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moraes, L E; Wilen, J E; Robinson, P H; Fadel, J G

    2012-03-01

    The objective was to develop a linear programming model to formulate diets for dairy cattle when environmental policies are present and to examine effects of these policies on diet formulation and dairy cattle nitrogen and mineral excretions as well as methane emissions. The model was developed as a minimum cost diet model. Two types of environmental policies were examined: a tax and a constraint on methane emissions. A tax was incorporated to simulate a greenhouse gas emissions tax policy, and prices of carbon credits in the current carbon markets were attributed to the methane production variable. Three independent runs were made, using carbon dioxide equivalent prices of $5, $17, and $250/t. A constraint was incorporated into the model to simulate the second type of environmental policy, reducing methane emissions by predetermined amounts. The linear programming formulation of this second alternative enabled the calculation of marginal costs of reducing methane emissions. Methane emission and manure production by dairy cows were calculated according to published equations, and nitrogen and mineral excretions were calculated by mass conservation laws. Results were compared with respect to the values generated by a base least-cost model. Current prices of the carbon credit market did not appear onerous enough to have a substantive incentive effect in reducing methane emissions and altering diet costs of our hypothetical dairy herd. However, when emissions of methane were assumed to be reduced by 5, 10, and 13.5% from the base model, total diet costs increased by 5, 19.1, and 48.5%, respectively. Either these increased costs would be passed onto the consumer or dairy producers would go out of business. Nitrogen and potassium excretions were increased by 16.5 and 16.7% with a 13.5% reduction in methane emissions from the base model. Imposing methane restrictions would further increase the demand for grains and other human-edible crops, which is not a progressive

  8. Healthcare Waste Generation Worldwide and Its Dependence on Socio-Economic and Environmental Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minas Minoglou

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the dependence of the healthcare waste (HCW generation rate on several social-economic and environmental parameters. Correlations were calculated between the quantities of healthcare waste generated (expressed in kg/bed/day versus economic indices (GDP, healthcare expenditure per capita, social indices (HDI, IHDI, MPI, life expectancy, mean years of schooling, HIV prevalence, deaths due to tuberculosis and malaria, and under five mortality rate, and an environmental sustainability index (total CO2 emissions from 42 countries worldwide. The statistical analysis included the examination of the normality of the data and the formation of linear multiple regression models to further investigate the correlation between those indices and HCW generation rates. Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients were also calculated for all pairwise comparisons. Results showed that the life expectancy, the HDI, the mean years of schooling and the CO2 emissions positively affect the HCW generation rates and can be used as statistical predictors of those rates. The resulting best reduced regression model included the life expectancy and the CO2 emissions and explained 85% of the variability of the response.

  9. Mapping environmental land use conflict potentials and ecosystem services in agricultural watersheds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Ilkwon; Arnhold, Sebastian

    2018-07-15

    In mountainous watersheds, agricultural land use cause changes in ecosystem services, with trade-offs between crop production and erosion regulation. Management of these watersheds can generate environmental land use conflicts among regional stakeholders with different interests. Although several researches have made a start in mapping land use conflicts between human activities and conservation, spatial assessment of land use conflicts on environmental issues and ecosystem service trade-offs within agricultural areas has not been fully considered. In this study, we went further to map land use conflicts between agricultural preferences for crop production and environmental emphasis on erosion regulation. We applied an agricultural land suitability index, based on multi-criteria analysis, to estimate the spatial preference of agricultural activities, while applying the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) to reflect the environmental importance of soil erosion. Then, we classified the agricultural catchment into four levels of land use conflicts (lowest, low, high and highest) according to preference and importance of farmland areas, and we compared the classes by crop type. Soil loss in agricultural areas was estimated as 45.1thayr, and agricultural suitability as 0.873; this indicated that land use conflicts in the catchment could arise between severe soil erosion (environmental importance) and agricultural suitability (land preferences). Dry-field farms are mainly located in areas of low land use conflict level, where land preference outweighs environmental importance. When we applied farmland management scenarios with consideration of services, conversion to highest-conflict areas (Scenario 1) as 7.5% of the total area could reduce soil loss by 24.6%, while fallow land management (Scenario 2) could decrease soil loss 19.4% more than the current scenario (Business as usual). The result could maximize land management plans by extracting issues of spatial

  10. Exploring nuclear energy scenarios - implications of technology and fuel cycle choices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rayment, Fiona; Mathers, Dan; Gregg, Robert

    2014-01-01

    Nuclear Energy is recognised globally as a mature, reliable low carbon technology with a secure and abundant fuel source. Within the UK, Nuclear Energy is an essential contributor to the energy mix and as such a decision has been made to refresh the current nuclear energy plants to at least replacement of the existing nuclear fleet. This will mean the building of new nuclear power plant to ensure energy production of 16 GWe per annum. However it is also recognised that this may not be enough and as such expansion scenarios ranging from replacement of the existing fleet to 75 GWe nuclear energy capacity are being considered (see appendix). Within these energy scenarios, a variety of options are being evaluated including electricity generation only, electricity generation plus heat, open versus closed fuel cycles, Generation III versus Generation IV systems and combinations of the above. What is clear is that the deciding factor on the type and mix of any energy programme will not be on technology choice alone. Instead a complex mix of Government policy, relative cost of nuclear power, market decisions and public opinion will influence the rate and direction of growth of any future energy programme. The UK National Nuclear Laboratory has supported this work through the use and development of a variety of assessment and modelling techniques. When assessing nuclear energy scenarios, the technology chosen will impact on a number of parameters within each scenario which includes but is not limited to: - Economics, - Nuclear energy demand, - Fuel Supply, - Spent fuel storage / recycle, - Geological repository volumetric and radiological capacity, - Sustainability - effective resource utilisation, - Technology viability and readiness level. A number of assessment and modelling techniques have been developed and are described further. In particular, they examine fuel cycle options for a number of nuclear energy scenarios, whilst exploring key implications for a particular

  11. Dynamic generation of socio-economic scenarios for climate change adaptation: methods, building blocks and examples; Dynamisk generering av socioekonomiska scenarier foer klimatanpassning: metod, byggstenar och exempel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carlsen, Henrik; Dreborg, Karl Henrik

    2008-05-15

    There is a need for socio-economic scenarios in climate change adaptation work in order to help planners cope with uncertainty of the long term development of society. The United Nations' Panel of climate change (IPCC) has developed climate scenarios with substantially different climatic characteristics in a hundred years' perspective. However, in a 25-30 years' perspective, which is very long term in societal planning, the difference between the scenarios is small, while society may develop in different directions. Since measures of adaptation to a changing climate may have different impacts depending on future socio-economic conditions, there is a need for scenarios that describe different possible developments. With a time frame of 25 years scenarios are more useful than projections of single factors such as GDP or demography, because scenarios can capture structural changes of society. This report presents results from a first step of the development of a scenario tool for climate adaptation work in municipalities, regions, and sectors of society in Sweden. The tool is to be further developed in regional case studies with the aim to make it adaptable to the specific focus of interest of various planning agencies. Therefore, we primarily concentrate on developing external factors and different possible future states for these, and a methodology for combining them into scenarios. The report presents the main steps of the scenario methodology and building blocks for the scenario construction consisting of socio-economic factors of special importance for climate adaptation work. The 13 socio-economic factors are: Demography; International mitigation policy; International climate change adaptation policy, Swedish economy; Ideology and social cohesion; Climate change perception; Swedish governance; Environmental policy; Global energy paradigm; Swedish energy paradigm; Land use; Built environment; Transportation. For each factor different possible

  12. Environmental radiation monitoring data for Point Lepreau Generating Station, 1990. Annual publication

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sutherland, J K

    1991-01-01

    Annual report presenting a compilation of the 1990 environmental radiation monitoring program data from samples collected around the Point Lepreau Nuclear Generating Station (PLNGS) and at reference stations remote from PLNGS. About 1,500 analyses were made on 1,100 samples to monitor environmental radiation, including air particulates, airborne water vapour, carbon dioxide in air, sea water, well water, milk, beach sediments, clams, fish, lobster, dulse, crabs, scallops, periwinkles, sea plants and lichen. Background radiation is measured by thermoluminescence dosimetry. Radon is not assessed.

  13. Fossil fuel depletion and socio-economic scenarios: An integrated approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Capellán-Pérez, Iñigo; Mediavilla, Margarita; Castro, Carlos de; Carpintero, Óscar; Miguel, Luis Javier

    2014-01-01

    The progressive reduction of high-quality-easy-to-extract energy is a widely recognized and already ongoing process. Although depletion studies for individual fuels are relatively abundant, few of them offer a global perspective of all energy sources and their potential future developments, and even fewer include the demand of the socio-economic system. This paper presents an Economy-Energy-Environment model based on System Dynamics which integrates all those aspects: the physical restrictions (with peak estimations for oil, gas, coal and uranium), the techno-sustainable potential of renewable energy estimated by a novel top-down methodology, the socio-economic energy demands, the development of alternative technologies and the net CO 2 emissions. We confront our model with the basic assumptions of previous Global Environmental Assessment (GEA) studies. The results show that demand-driven evolution, as performed in the past, might be unfeasible: strong energy-supply scarcity is found in the next two decades, especially in the transportation sector before 2020. Electricity generation is unable to fulfill its demand in 2025–2040, and a large expansion of electric renewable energies move us close to their limits. In order to find achievable scenarios, we are obliged to set hypotheses which are hardly used in GEA scenarios, such as zero or negative economic growth. - Highlights: • The paper presents and describes a new Energy–Economy–Environment global model. • GEA scenario dynamics have the potential to lead us to energy resource scarcity in the next 2 decades. • Global forecasts of international agencies show inconsistency in energy constraints. • Renewable energies are only partially able to replace fossil fuels depletion. • Climate change still reaches dangerous dimensions

  14. Human and environmental analysis of wearable thermal energy harvesting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Myers, Amanda; Hodges, Ryan; Jur, Jesse S.

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • A series of TEGs are integrated into a wearable, flexible form factor. • Human trials are performed to study environmental and human effects on the TEGs. • Correlations are drawn between human induced movement and environmental conditions. • User movement is the most significant factor in wearable TE harvesting. - Abstract: In considering wearable energy harvesting, one must recognize the wide array of factors that lead to variations of energy harvesting. The objective of this work is to define analytical methods to study the effect of environmental and human factors on thermal energy generator (TEG) performance in a variety of use case scenarios. A test method for evaluating the performance of a TEG in a wearable form is developed and demonstrated using both in-lab and out-of-lab procedures. The fabrication procedure of an energy harvesting wearable device demonstrates a method of integrating rigid devices into a flexible substrate. The wearable device is used in a human trial which covered a series of activities in different environmental conditions. The results of these trials demonstrate the significant effect of movement, or convection, on thermal energy harvesting. Humidity levels do not have a significant correlation to power; however, wet bulb temperature must be taken into consideration due to the additional cooling effect of evaporation on temperature. The data collected indicates that while dry-bulb temperature does not have the greatest effect on TEG power generation, wet-bulb temperature is indicative of TEG performance. Additionally, user generated movement is the main consideration when designing a wearable device with TEGs as it had the largest effects on power generation. The results of this work quantify how a wearable device will perform throughout daily activities, allowing the definition of an operational scenario of a self-powered wearable device while choosing the most appropriate design for a particular application

  15. Experience on environmental qualification of safety-related components for Darlington Nuclear Generating Station

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, A.S.; Kukreti, B.M.

    1987-01-01

    The proliferation of Nuclear Power Plant safety concerns has lead to increasing attention over the Environmental Qualification (EQ) of Nuclear Power Plant Safety-Related Components to provide the assurance that the safety related equipment will meet their intended functions during normal operation and postulated accident conditions. The environmental qualification of these components is also a Licensing requirement for Darlington Nuclear Generating Station. This paper provides an overview of EQ and the experience of a pilot project, in the qualification of the Main Moderator System safety-related functions for the Darlington Nuclear Generating Station currently under construction. It addresses the various phases of qualification from the identification of the EQ Safety-Related Components List, definition of location specific service conditions (normal, adbnormal and accident), safety-related functions, Environmental Qualification Assessments and finally, an EQ system summary report for the Main Moderator System. The results of the pilot project are discussed and the methodology reviewed. The paper concludes that the EQ Program developed for Darlington Nuclear Generating Station, as applied to the qualification of the Main Moderator System, contained all the elements necessary in the qualification of safety-related equipment. The approach taken in the qualification of the Moderator safety-related equipment proves to provide a sound framework for the qualification of other safety-related components in the station

  16. Scenarios for the Electrification of Transport

    OpenAIRE

    Kanudia , Amit; Gastineau , Pascal; BACHMANN , Till; PREISS , Philipp; STOFFREGEN , Alexander; VINOT , Simon; CHEZE , Benoît; Tchung-Ming , Stéphane; BOUVART , Frédérique

    2015-01-01

    SCelecTRA - Scenarios for the electrification of Transport is a collaborative project under the ERANET - Electromobility+ call for project and aims at: · identifying the conditions and public policies actions to develop road passenger electromobility in Europe for 2030, · assessing the environmental impacts of such policies via consequential Life Cycle Analysis as well as their external costs.; Sélectionné dans le cadre du programme ERANET- Electromobility+, le projet visait à identifier les ...

  17. Climate Change Scenarios in the Yucatan Peninsula to the year 2020

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orellana, R.; Espadas, C.; Conde, C.; Gay, C.

    2010-03-01

    A topic that has not been sufficiently analyzed is that the global warming is already affecting, and that it will have worst consequences in those regions with transitional climates, which have more sensibility to changes. This is the case of the Yucatan Peninsula which is semi-arid in their northern portion, and toward the south is subhumid, with a tendency to be more rainy toward the south. To have an estimation of what could happen in the future, the Intergovernmental Panel of Climatic Change (IPCC) has promoted the use of General Circulation Models (GCM), as well as the construction of possible emission scenarios that integrate different global and regional socioeconomic and demographic conditions, which project then a possible increase of emissions of greenhouse gases. These conditions are recognized as the decisive forces that will determine the variations of temperature and of precipitation. These projections are useful for the analysis of climatic change, and in particular for the assessments of the possible impacts and of the initiatives of adaptation and of mitigation that should be implemented in every country or region. In Mexico, most of those evaluations of climate change have been carried out generally at country level. For that reason, it is necessary to direct the research at regional level. In this work, we evaluated the potential climatic changes on the Yucatan Peninsula, considering the different changes of temperature and precipitation as a consequence for different emission scenarios and for the horizon 2020. To project the environmental responses of the region, we used as a base scenario the available temperature and precipitation information of the period 1961-1990, registered in 85 meteorological stations of the peninsula. With these data, we generated climate change scenarios using the outputs of four General Circulation Models: HADLEY, ECHAM, GFDL and CGCM, and the emission scenarios A1FI, A2, B1 and B2. The outputs of these models were

  18. An inexact multi-objective programming approach for strategic environmental assessment on regional development plan

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Jihua; GUO Huaicheng; LIU Lei; HAO Mingjia; ZHANG Ming; LU Xiaojian; XING Kexia

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents the development of an inexact multi-objective programming (IMOP) model and its application to the strategic environmental assessment (SEA) for the regional development plan for the Hunnan New Zone (HNZ) in Shenyang City, China. Inexact programming and multi-objective programming methods are employed to effectively account for extensive uncertainties in the study system and to reflect various interests from different stakeholders, respectively. In the case study, balancing-economy-and-environment scenario and focusing-industry-development scenario are analyzed by the interactive solution process for addressing the preferences from local authorities and compromises among different objectives. Through interpreting the model solutions under both scenarios, analysis of industrial structure, waste water treatment plant(WWTP) expansion, water consumption and pollution generation and treatment are undertaken for providing a solid base to justify and evaluate the HNZ regional development plan. The study results show that the developed IMOP-SEA framework is feasible and applicable in carrying comprehensive environmental impact assessments for development plan in a more effective and efficient manner.

  19. Local and regional effects on community structure of dung beetles in a mainland-island scenario.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro Giovâni da Silva

    Full Text Available Understanding the ecological mechanisms driving beta diversity is a major goal of community ecology. Metacommunity theory brings new ways of thinking about the structure of local communities, including processes occurring at different spatial scales. In addition to new theories, new methods have been developed which allow the partitioning of individual and shared contributions of environmental and spatial effects, as well as identification of species and sites that have importance in the generation of beta diversity along ecological gradients. We analyzed the spatial distribution of dung beetle communities in areas of Atlantic Forest in a mainland-island scenario in southern Brazil, with the objective of identifying the mechanisms driving composition, abundance and biomass at three spatial scales (mainland-island, areas and sites. We sampled 20 sites across four large areas, two on the mainland and two on the island. The distribution of our sampling sites was hierarchical and areas are isolated. We used standardized protocols to assess environmental heterogeneity and sample dung beetles. We used spatial eigenfunctions analysis to generate the spatial patterns of sampling points. Environmental heterogeneity showed strong variation among sites and a mild increase with increasing spatial scale. The analysis of diversity partitioning showed an increase in beta diversity with increasing spatial scale. Variation partitioning based on environmental and spatial variables suggests that environmental heterogeneity is the most important driver of beta diversity at the local scale. The spatial effects were significant only at larger spatial scales. Our study presents a case where environmental heterogeneity seems to be the main factor structuring communities at smaller scales, while spatial effects are more important at larger scales. The increase in beta diversity that occurs at larger scales seems to be the result of limitation in species dispersal

  20. Renewable Energy Generation in India: Present Scenario and Future Prospects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Singh, Sri Niwas; Singh, Bharat; Østergaard, Jacob

    2009-01-01

    The development of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) is necessary for the sustainable development of any country due to depleting fossil fuel level, climbing fossil fuel prices across the world and more recently pressure for reduction emission level. In India, several schemes and policies are launched...... by the government to support the use of RES to achieve energy security and self-sufficiency. This paper discusses the present scenario and future prospects of RES in India. Various schemes such as financial assistance, tax holiday etc for promoting RESs development and utilization are also discussed. The present...

  1. Environmental, social and economic measures for introducing hydrogen to city centres

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hart, D.; Lucas, N.; Hutchinson, D.

    1997-01-01

    A conceptual design of a total system of hydrogen use in an urban area is being developed as part of the Japanese WE-NET Program. This paper describes the methodology used in developing the concept and provides details of some of the initial findings of the research project. Several energy scenarios involving hydrogen have been subjected to cost-benefit analysis, and assessed against a reference scenario. The reference scenario is based on expectations of energy demand in the year 2015, although some assumptions have been time-frozen. (These, however, are factors that do not affect the outcomes). One of the considerations in examining various scenarios was to propose transitional strategies for achieving hydrogen penetration in urban areas. Niche market areas appear to offer the greatest cost or emission advantage at present, therefore, the alternative energy supply scenarios have been designed to target particular niche areas for the use of hydrogen. These niches include decentralized power generation using fuel cells, fuel cell-equipped buses and the mixing of hydrogen with natural gas for both vehicular and power generating equipment use. Externality costing has been used to compare technology costs and environmental benefits. Results suggest that it may be valuable to mix hydrogen with natural gas and deliver it to all users of natural gas. Targeting pure hydrogen may not be cost-effective in the short term due to the high cost associated with developing a hydrogen infrastructure

  2. Data supporting the comparative life cycle assessment of different municipal solid waste management scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali Rajaeifar, Mohammad; Tabatabaei, Meisam; Ghanavati, Hossein

    2015-01-01

    Environmental assessment of municipal solid waste (MSW) management scenarios would help to select eco-friendly scenarios. In this study, the inventory data in support of life cycle assessment of different MSW are presented. The scenarios were defined as: anaerobic digestion (AD, Sc-0), landfilling combined with composting (Sc-1), incineration (Sc-2), incineration combined with composting (Sc-3), and AD combined with incineration (Sc-4). The current article contains flowcharts of the different scenarios. Additionally, six supplementary files including inventory data on the different scenarios, data on the different damage assessment categories, normalization, and single scores are presented (Supplementary files 1–6). The analysis of the different scenarios revealed that the most eco-friendly scenario to be implemented in the future would be the combination of AD and incineration (Sc-4). PMID:26217743

  3. Data supporting the comparative life cycle assessment of different municipal solid waste management scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Ali Rajaeifar

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Environmental assessment of municipal solid waste (MSW management scenarios would help to select eco-friendly scenarios. In this study, the inventory data in support of life cycle assessment of different MSW are presented. The scenarios were defined as: anaerobic digestion (AD, Sc-0, landfilling combined with composting (Sc-1, incineration (Sc-2, incineration combined with composting (Sc-3, and AD combined with incineration (Sc-4. The current article contains flowcharts of the different scenarios. Additionally, six supplementary files including inventory data on the different scenarios, data on the different damage assessment categories, normalization, and single scores are presented (Supplementary files 1–6. The analysis of the different scenarios revealed that the most eco-friendly scenario to be implemented in the future would be the combination of AD and incineration (Sc-4.

  4. Combining lifecycle and risk assessments of mineral waste reuse scenarios for decision making support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benetto, Enrico; Tiruta-Barna, Ligia; Perrodin, Yves

    2007-01-01

    Lack of regulations and standards on mineral waste recycling makes Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) useful methods for environmental assessment of recycling scenarios. An unsolved problem arises whenever two scenarios of recycling have to be compared according to both ERA and LCA impact results considered simultaneously. A methodology to combine LCA and ERA results and tools toward Integrated Environmental Assessment (IEA) is proposed together with three application examples based on case studies. The most effective combination approach is to define further impact categories for ERA to be considered with the standard LCA ones. Then, the use of a multicriteria analysis method was proved to be an efficient way to rank alternative scenarios with respect to all the results. The key issues to be further researched are discussed and proposals are suggested

  5. Potential Environmental and Environmental-Health Implications of the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario in California: Chapter F in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plumlee, Geoffrey S.; Morman, Suzette A.; San Juan, Carma

    2013-01-01

    The California Tsunami Scenario models the impacts of a hypothetical, yet plausible, tsunami caused by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula. In this chapter, we interpret plausible tsunami-related contamination, environmental impacts, potential for human exposures to contaminants and hazardous materials, and implications for remediation and recovery. Inundation-related damages to major ports, boat yards, and many marinas could release complex debris, crude oil, various fuel types and other petroleum products, some liquid bulk cargo and dry bulk cargo, and diverse other pollutants into nearby coastal marine environments and onshore in the inundation zone. Tsunami-induced erosion of contaminated harbor bottom sediments could re-expose previously sequestered metal and organic pollutants (for example, organotin or DDT). Inundation-related damage to many older buildings could produce debris containing lead paint, asbestos, pesticides, and other legacy contaminants. Intermingled household debris and externally derived debris and sediments would be left in flooded buildings. Post tsunami, mold would likely develop in inundated houses, buildings, and debris piles. Tsunamigenic fires in spilled oil, debris, cargo, vehicles, vegetation, and residential, commercial, or industrial buildings and their contents would produce potentially toxic gases and smoke, airborne ash, and residual ash/debris containing caustic alkali solids, metal toxicants, asbestos, and various organic toxicants. Inundation of and damage to wastewater treatment plants in many coastal cities could release raw sewage containing fecal solids, pathogens, and waste chemicals, as well as chemicals used to treat wastewaters. Tsunami-related physical damages, debris, and contamination could have short- and longer-term impacts on the environment and the health of coastal marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Marine habitats in intertidal zones, marshes, sloughs, and lagoons could be damaged by erosion or

  6. Protecting the environment for future generations. Principles and actors in international environmental law

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Proelss, Alexander (ed.) [Trier Univ. (Germany). Inst. of Environmental and Technology Law

    2017-08-01

    This book compiles the written versions of presentations held at the occasion of an international symposium entitled ''Protecting the Environment for Future Generations - Principles and Actors in International Environmental Law''. The symposium was organized by the Institute of Environmental and Technology Law of Trier University (IUTR) on the basis of a cooperation scheme with the Environmental Law Institute of the Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria, and took place in Trier on 29-30 October 2015. It brought together a distinguished group of experts from Europe and abroad to address current issues of international and European environmental law. The main objective of the symposium was to take stock of the actors and principles of international and European environmental law, and to analyze how and to what extent these principles have been implemented on the supranational and domestic legal levels.

  7. Proposed Tenaska Washington II Generation Project : Final Environmental Impact Statement. Volume 1: Environmental Analysis and Technical Appendices.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    1994-01-01

    BPA is considering whether to purchase electrical power from a proposed privately-owned combustion-turbine electrical generation plant in Washington. The plant would be fired by natural gas and would use combined-cycle technology to generate 240 average megawatts (aMW) of energy. The plant would be developed, owned, and operated by Tenaska Washington Partners II, L.P. The project would be located about 19 kilometers (12 miles) southeast of downtown Tacoma in the Frederickson Industrial Area, Pierce County. The proposed plant would occupy about half of a 6.4-hectare (16-acre) parcel and would be consistent with the industrial character of its surroundings. The proposed site is currently undeveloped and zoned for industrial use by the county. Main environmental concerns identified in the scoping process and in comments on the Draft Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) include: (1) potential air quality impacts, such as emissions and their contribution to the {open_quotes}greenhouse{close_quotes} effect; (2) potential health and safety impacts, such as nuisance odors, plant safety, visibility and heat-emission systems which may affect low-flying planes and potential health effects of electric and magnetic fields; and (3) potential water quality and quantity impacts, such as the amount of wastewater to be discharged, the source and amount of water required for plant operation. These and other issues are discussed in detail in the EIS. The proposed project already includes many features designed to reduce environmental impacts. Based on investigations performed for the EIS, no significant unavoidable adverse environmental impacts associated with the proposed project were identified, and no evidence emerged to suggest that the proposed action is controversial. The EIS is being mailed to numerous agencies, groups, and individuals (see Section 8.0). There will be a 30-day no-action period before any decisions are made and the Record of Decision is signed.

  8. Analysis of a Spanish energy scenario with Generation IV nuclear reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ochoa, Raquel; Jimenez, Gonzalo; Perez-Martin, Sara

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Spanish energy scenario for the hypothetical deployment of Gen-IV SFR reactors. • Availability of national resources is assessed, considering SFR’s breeding. • An assessment of the impact of transmuting MA on the final repository. • SERPENT code with own pre- and post-processing tools were employed. • The employed SFR core design is based on the specifications of the CP-ESFR. - Abstract: The advantages of fast-spectrum reactors consist not only of an efficient use of fuel through the breeding of fissile material and the use of natural or depleted uranium, but also of the potential reduction of the amount of actinides such as americium and neptunium contained in the irradiated fuel. The first aspect means a guaranteed future nuclear fuel supply. The second fact is key for high-level radioactive waste management, because these elements are the main responsible for the radioactivity of the irradiated fuel in the long term. The present study aims to analyze the hypothetical deployment of a Gen-IV Sodium Fast Reactor (SFR) fleet in Spain. A nuclear fleet of fast reactors would enable a fuel cycle strategy different than the open cycle, currently adopted by most of the countries with nuclear power. A transition from the current Gen-II to Gen-IV fleet is envisaged through an intermediate deployment of Gen-III reactors. Fuel reprocessing from the Gen-II and Gen-III Light Water Reactors (LWR) has been considered. In the so-called advanced fuel cycle, the reprocessed fuel used to produce energy will breed new fissile fuel and transmute minor actinides at the same time. A reference case scenario has been postulated and further sensitivity studies have been performed to analyze the impact of the different parameters on the required reactor fleet. The potential capability of Spain to supply the required fleet for the reference scenario using national resources has been verified. Finally, some consequences on irradiated final fuel inventory are assessed

  9. Sludge quantification at water treatment plant and its management scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmad, Tarique; Ahmad, Kafeel; Alam, Mehtab

    2017-08-15

    Large volume of sludge is generated at the water treatment plants during the purification of surface water for potable supplies. Handling and disposal of sludge require careful attention from civic bodies, plant operators, and environmentalists. Quantification of the sludge produced at the treatment plants is important to develop suitable management strategies for its economical and environment friendly disposal. Present study deals with the quantification of sludge using empirical relation between turbidity, suspended solids, and coagulant dosing. Seasonal variation has significant effect on the raw water quality received at the water treatment plants so forth sludge generation also varies. Yearly production of the sludge in a water treatment plant at Ghaziabad, India, is estimated to be 29,700 ton. Sustainable disposal of such a quantity of sludge is a challenging task under stringent environmental legislation. Several beneficial reuses of sludge in civil engineering and constructional work have been identified globally such as raw material in manufacturing cement, bricks, and artificial aggregates, as cementitious material, and sand substitute in preparing concrete and mortar. About 54 to 60% sand, 24 to 28% silt, and 16% clay constitute the sludge generated at the water treatment plant under investigation. Characteristics of the sludge are found suitable for its potential utilization as locally available construction material for safe disposal. An overview of the sustainable management scenario involving beneficial reuses of the sludge has also been presented.

  10. Scenario analysis of energy-based low-carbon development in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Yun; Hao, Fanghua; Meng, Wei; Fu, Jiafeng

    2014-08-01

    China's increasing energy consumption and coal-dominant energy structure have contributed not only to severe environmental pollution, but also to global climate change. This article begins with a brief review of China's primary energy use and associated environmental problems and health risks. To analyze the potential of China's transition to low-carbon development, three scenarios are constructed to simulate energy demand and CO₂ emission trends in China up to 2050 by using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model. Simulation results show that with the assumption of an average annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of 6.45%, total primary energy demand is expected to increase by 63.4%, 48.8% and 12.2% under the Business as Usual (BaU), Carbon Reduction (CR) and Integrated Low Carbon Economy (ILCE) scenarios in 2050 from the 2009 levels. Total energy-related CO₂ emissions will increase from 6.7 billiontons in 2009 to 9.5, 11, 11.6 and 11.2 billiontons; 8.2, 9.2, 9.6 and 9 billiontons; 7.1, 7.4, 7.2 and 6.4 billiontons in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 under the BaU, CR and ILCE scenarios, respectively. Total CO₂ emission will drop by 19.6% and 42.9% under the CR and ILCE scenarios in 2050, compared with the BaU scenario. To realize a substantial cut in energy consumption and carbon emissions, China needs to make a long-term low-carbon development strategy targeting further improvement of energy efficiency, optimization of energy structure, deployment of clean coal technology and use of market-based economic instruments like energy/carbon taxation. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  11. Energy and environmental impact analysis of rice cultivation and straw management in northern Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yodkhum, Sanwasan; Sampattagul, Sate; Gheewala, Shabbir H

    2018-04-17

    Rice cultivation and energy use for rice production can produce the environmental impacts, especially related to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Also, rice straw open burning by farmers generally practiced after harvesting stage in Thailand for removing the residues in the rice field is associated with emissions of air pollutants, especially particulate matter formation that affects human health and global climate. This study assessed the environmental burdens, consisting of GHG emissions, energy use, and particulate matter formation (PM10), from rice cultivation in Thailand by life cycle assessment (LCA) and compared the environmental burdens of rice straw management scenarios: open burning, incorporation into soil, and direct combustion for electricity generation. The data were collected from the rice production cooperative in Chiang Mai province, northern Thailand, via onsite records and face-to-face questionnaires in 2016. The environmental impacts were evaluated from cradle-to-farm gate. The results showed that the total GHG emissions were 0.64 kg CO 2 -eq per kilogram of paddy rice, the total energy use was 1.80 MJ per kilogram of paddy rice and the PM10 emissions were 0.42 g PM10-eq per kilogram of paddy rice. The results of rice straw management scenarios showed that rice straw open burning had the highest GHG and PM10 emissions. However, rice straw utilization by incorporation into soil and direct combustion for electricity generation could reduce these impacts substantially.

  12. Global climate-oriented transportation scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harvey, L.D.D.

    2013-01-01

    This paper develops scenarios whereby CO 2 emissions from the transportation sector are eliminated worldwide by the end of this century. Data concerning the energy intensity and utilization of different passenger and freight transportation modes in 2005, and per capita income, in 10 different socio-economic regions of the world are combined with scenarios of population and per capita GDP to generate scenarios of future transportation energy demand. The impact of various technical options (improvements in the energy intensity of all transportation modes, changes in the proportions of vehicles with different drive trains, and a shift to biomass or hydrogen for the non-electricity energy requirements) and behavioural options (a shift to less energy-intensive LDV market segments, a reduction in total passenger-km of travel per capita, and an increase in the share of less energy-intensive passenger and freight modes of transport) is assessed. To eliminate transportation fossil fuel emissions within this century while limiting the demand for electricity, biofuels or hydrogen to manageable levels requires the simultaneous application of all the technical and behavioural measures considered here, with improvements in vehicle efficiencies and a shift to plug-in hybrid and battery-electric drive trains for light duty vehicles being the most important measures. - Highlights: ► Scenarios are developed whereby transportation CO 2 emissions reach zero by 2100. ► These scenarios address concerns about peak oil and global warming. ► A comprehensive mix of technical and behavioural changes is considered in 10 world regions. ► Efficiency improvements and a shift to plug-in hybrid vehicles are the most important measures

  13. 75 FR 52045 - Arizona Public Service Company, Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station, Unit 3; Environmental...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-08-24

    ... Company, Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station, Unit 3; Environmental Assessment and Finding of No.... NPF-74, issued to Arizona Public Service Company (APS, the licensee), for operation of Palo Verde... Statement for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station, NUREG-0841, dated February 1982. Agencies and...

  14. Scenario-targeted toxicity assessment through multiple endpoint bioassays in a soil posing unacceptable environmental risk according to regulatory screening values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez-Ruiz, A; Etxebarria, J; Boatti, L; Marigómez, I

    2015-09-01

    Lanestosa is a chronically polluted site (derelict mine) where the soil (Lanestosa (LA) soil) exceeds screening values (SVs) of regulatory policies in force (Basque Country; Europe) for Zn, Pb and Cd. A scenario-targeted toxicity assessment was carried out on the basis of a multi-endpoint bioassay approach. Acute and chronic toxicity bioassays were conducted with selected test species (Vibrio fischeri, Dictyostelium discoideum, Lactuca sativa, Raphanus sativus and Eisenia fetida) in combination with chemical analysis of soils and elutriates and with bioaccumulation studies in earthworms. Besides, the toxicity profile was compared with that of the mine runoff (RO) soil and of a fresh artificially polluted soil (LAAPS) resembling LA soil pollutant profile. Extractability studies in LA soil revealed that Pb, Zn and Cd were highly available for exchange and/or release into the environment. Indeed, Pb and Zn were accumulated in earthworms and LA soil resulted to be toxic. Soil respiration, V. fischeri, vegetative and developmental cycles of D. discoideum and survival and juvenile production of E. fetida were severely affected. These results confirmed that LA soil had unacceptable environmental risk and demanded intervention. In contrast, although Pb and Zn concentrations in RO soil revealed also unacceptable risk, both metal extractability and toxicity were much lower than in LA soil. Thus, within the polluted site, the need for intervention varied between areas that posed dissimilar risk. Besides, since LAAPS, with a high exchangeable metal fraction, was the most toxic, ageing under in situ natural conditions seemingly contributed to attenuate LA soil risk. As a whole, combining multi-endpoint bioassays with scenario-targeted analysis (including leaching and ageing) provides reliable risk assessment in soils posing unacceptable environmental risk according to SVs, which is useful to optimise the required intervention measures.

  15. Environmental and economic appraisal of power generation capacity expansion plan in Nigeria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gujba, H.; Mulugetta, Y.; Azapagic, A.

    2010-01-01

    The power sector in Nigeria is undergoing structural reforms aimed at improving and expanding the current grid generation capacity and distribution network. The Government has injected huge funds into this sector while also granting licences to private companies for the provision of electricity. It is also aiming to increase electricity generation capacity to 25,000 MW by 2020 from the current installed capacity of 6500 MW while also pledging to connect 75% of the population to the grid from the current 40% by 2025. This paper sets out to analyse the implications of the energy policy in Nigeria and presents the life cycle environmental and economic analysis of the current and future electricity sector. The results show that all the life cycle impacts and economic costs increase significantly over the time-period (2003-2030), but at different rates depending on the types of technologies deployed. Renewables such as large hydro and solar proposed by the Government have a potential to reduce the overall life cycle environmental impacts from the electricity mix, considering their lower environmental impacts compared to fossil-fuels. However, this requires a five-fold increase in grid investments from the current US$1.7 billion per year to US$9.40 billion by 2030.

  16. Environmental and Environmental-Health Implications of the USGS SAFRR California Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plumlee, G. S.; Morman, S. A.; San Juan, C. A.

    2013-12-01

    The California Tsunami Scenario models the impacts of a hypothetical yet plausible tsunami caused by an earthquake offshore from the Alaskan Peninsula. Here, we interpret plausible tsunami-related contamination, environmental impacts, potential for human exposures to contaminants and hazardous materials, and implications for remediation and recovery. Inundation-related damages to major ports, boat yards, and many marinas could release complex debris, crude oil, various fuel types, other petroleum products, some liquid bulk cargo and dry bulk cargo, and diverse other pollutants into nearby coastal marine environments and onshore in the inundation zone. Tsunami-induced erosion of contaminated harbor bottom sediments could re-expose previously sequestered metal and organic pollutants (e.g., organotin, DDT). Inundation-related damage to many older buildings could produce complex debris containing lead paint, asbestos, pesticides, and other legacy contaminants. Intermingled household debris and externally derived debris and sediments would be left in flooded buildings. Post tsunami, mold would likely develop in inundated houses, buildings, and debris piles. Tsunamigenic fires in spilled oil, debris, cargo, vehicles, vegetation, and residential, commercial, or industrial buildings and their contents would produce potentially toxic gases and smoke, airborne ash, and residual ash/debris containing caustic alkali solids, metal toxicants, asbestos, and various organic toxicants. Inundation of and damage to wastewater treatment plants in many coastal cities could release raw sewage containing fecal solids, pathogens, and waste chemicals, as well as chemicals used to treat wastewaters. Tsunami-related physical damages, debris, and contamination could have short- and longer-term impacts on the environment and the health of coastal marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Marine habitats in intertidal zones, marshes, sloughs, and lagoons could be damaged by erosion or sedimentation

  17. Scenarios and Strategies for Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-11-15

    In 2011, IRENA will start developing scenarios and strategies for Africa. This is a pilot study for a project that will ultimately encompass the whole world. The selection of Africa first indicates the priority that the IRENA work programme places on the continent. In the framework of the 2011 IRENA work programme, the analysis of scenarios and strategies will feed into the renewables readiness assessment, which will assess policy priorities and best practices in renewable energy policy-making. This, in turn, will be the basis for financing investment and capacity building activities. Energy policy advice must consider issues, such as the structure of energy supply and demand, the past and future energy trends, renewable energy resources, energy economics and technology access. Scenarios and strategies are key tools for such an analysis. Regional and national differences must be considered and individual sectors and end-use categories further analysed. These include power generation, cooking, heating, industrial process heat, and transport. Urban and rural solutions will be dealt with separately, as well as centralised and decentralised solutions. The analysis will cover issues, such as potentials, technology, supply chains and investment needs.

  18. Study on the FBR cycle introduction scenario. 4. Evaluation of the FBR cycle introduction scenario from the viewpoints of the fuel cycle requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ono, Kiyoshi; Shiotani, Hiroki; Hirao, Kazunori

    2003-07-01

    This report is intended to explain the outline of the scenario studies on FBR (Fast Breeder Reactor) cycle introduction. Recently, people value the reduction of environmental impact in addition to the recycle of energy resources and the energy security in these scenario studies. This report summarizes the analysis about the necessity of plutonium recycling in LWR (Light water Reactor) from short-term view and about the necessity of FBR cycle introduction from a long-term view in Japan, by comparing 'FBR scenario' with 'LWR once-through scenario' and 'Pu recycle in LWR scenario', from the viewpoints of cumulative uranium demand, spent fuel storage, radioactive waste arising, etc. It becomes clear that the plutonium recycling in LWR has a good effect on the reduction of spent fuel storage and the cumulative natural uranium demand before FBR cycle introduction, from short-term view (20-30 years). On the other hand, this analysis also shows that there is much effect of FBR deployment not only on saving amount of uranium use and energy security but also on reduction of high-level radioactive waste (spent fuels and vitrified waste) and minor actinide arising, from long-term view (100-200 years). (author)

  19. Planning Support Systems (PSS-Based Spatial Plan Alternatives and Environmental Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hee-Sun Choi

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Spatial planning is at the core of national land and urban development. Many countries and cities seek sustainable development through various means such as coordinated environmental planning, environmental assessment, and internalization of environmental analysis and planning. A Planning Support System (PSS is a GIS (Geographic Information System-based, spatial decision-making support system that incorporates a variety of theories and pertinent models. This study adopted the “What if?” model to design an alternative spatial plan that includes generation of predictive scenarios and is relatively easy to use. In the cities studied, we identified a total of six scenarios based on the main drivers of development—namely, population and spatial policies. Subsequently, we assessed the alternatives for their environmental impact, preparing sensitivity maps for each major environmental issue in the target area (natural ecosystem, air and microclimate, natural disasters. One projected advantage of the “What if?” model is that its digital visualization of proposed plans may improve public awareness and involvement. Furthermore, the tool is expected to be highly useful in ensuring the objectivity of quantitative analyses. However, it is necessary to develop a PSS that is both standardized and tailored to the particular needs of each area. Finally, the development of an e-governance system will be beneficial in ensuring public access to the decision making process.

  20. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: from Publication to Implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, S.; Jones, L.; Miller, K.; Wilson, R. I.; Burkett, E. R.; Bwarie, J.; Campbell, N. M.; Johnson, L. A.; Long, K.; Lynett, P. J.; Perry, S. C.; Plumlee, G. S.; Porter, K.; Real, C. R.; Ritchie, L. A.; Wein, A. M.; Whitmore, P.; Wood, N. J.

    2014-12-01

    The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. We presented the likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. The Tsunami Scenario process is being evaluated by the University of Colorado's Natural Hazards Center; this is the first time that a USGS scenario of this scale has been formally and systematically evaluated by an external party. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario was publicly introduced in September, 2013, through a series of regional workshops in California that brought together emergency managers, maritime authorities, first responders, elected officials and staffers, the business sector, state agencies, local media, scientific partners, and special districts such as utilities (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1170/). In March, 2014, NOAA's annual tsunami warning exercise, PACIFEX, was based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. Many groups conducted exercises associated with PACIFEX including the State of Washington and several counties in California. San Francisco had the most comprehensive exercise with a 3-day functional exercise based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. In addition, the National Institutes of Health ran an exercise at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in April, 2014, building on the Tsunami Scenario, focusing on the recovery phase and adding a refinery fire. The benefits and lessons learned include: 1) stimulating dialogue among practitioners to solve problems; 2) seeing groups add extra components to their exercises that best address their

  1. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

    2014-04-01

    Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

  2. Environmental impact tool to assess national energy scenarios

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Taviv, R

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available ) in terms of environmental impacts. The system quantifies the national energy demand for the domestic, commercial, transport, industry and agriculture sectors, the supply of electricity and liquid fuels, and the resulting emissions. The South African...

  3. Two graphical user interfaces for managing and analyzing MODFLOW groundwater-model scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banta, Edward R.

    2014-01-01

    Scenario Manager and Scenario Analyzer are graphical user interfaces that facilitate the use of calibrated, MODFLOW-based groundwater models for investigating possible responses to proposed stresses on a groundwater system. Scenario Manager allows a user, starting with a calibrated model, to design and run model scenarios by adding or modifying stresses simulated by the model. Scenario Analyzer facilitates the process of extracting data from model output and preparing such display elements as maps, charts, and tables. Both programs are designed for users who are familiar with the science on which groundwater modeling is based but who may not have a groundwater modeler’s expertise in building and calibrating a groundwater model from start to finish. With Scenario Manager, the user can manipulate model input to simulate withdrawal or injection wells, time-variant specified hydraulic heads, recharge, and such surface-water features as rivers and canals. Input for stresses to be simulated comes from user-provided geographic information system files and time-series data files. A Scenario Manager project can contain multiple scenarios and is self-documenting. Scenario Analyzer can be used to analyze output from any MODFLOW-based model; it is not limited to use with scenarios generated by Scenario Manager. Model-simulated values of hydraulic head, drawdown, solute concentration, and cell-by-cell flow rates can be presented in display elements. Map data can be represented as lines of equal value (contours) or as a gradated color fill. Charts and tables display time-series data obtained from output generated by a transient-state model run or from user-provided text files of time-series data. A display element can be based entirely on output of a single model run, or, to facilitate comparison of results of multiple scenarios, an element can be based on output from multiple model runs. Scenario Analyzer can export display elements and supporting metadata as a Portable

  4. Study on scenario evaluation methodology for decommissioning nuclear facilities using fuzzy logic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuhashi, Kazuya; Yanagihara, Satoshi

    2015-01-01

    Since there are many scenarios of the process from start to completion of a decommissioning project, it is important to study scenarios of decommissioning by evaluating such properties as safety, cost, and technology. An optimum scenario with the highest feasibility in accordance with the facility and environmental conditions should be selected on the basis of the results of the study. For analyzing a scenario of decommissioning, we prepared structured work packages by using the work breakdown structures (WBS) method together with qualitative evaluation of the technologies being applied to work packages located at the bottom (the third level) of the WBS. A calculation model was constructed to evaluate the feasibility of a scenario where fuzzy logic is applied to derive a score of technology performance and TOPSIS is applied for getting a feasibility grade of the scenario from technical performance scoring. As a case study, the model was applied to the debris removal scenario of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant to confirm its applicability. Two scenarios, underwater and in-air debris removal cases, were characterized by extracting the work packages with the lowest feasibility and by obtaining total average scores of the scenarios. It is confirmed that the methodology developed is useful for the scenario evaluation of decommissioning nuclear facilities. (author)

  5. An economic and environmental assessment of future electricity generation mixes in Japan – an assessment using the E3MG macro-econometric model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pollitt, Hector; Park, Seung-Joon; Lee, Soocheol; Ueta, Kazuhiro

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we consider future options for Japanese energy and climate policy. We assess the economic and environmental impacts of changing the share of electricity generated by nuclear power and varying the mid-term GHG targets. The quantitative approach we use is based on the global macro-econometric E3MG model. Our analysis reveals that the cost of denuclearisation to Japanese GDP is close to zero, and for employment the impact is slightly positive. Our results also show a double-dividend effect if (revenue-neutral) carbon taxes are levied in order to meet the GHG reduction targets, and this double-dividend effect is largest in the scenarios without nuclear power. However, our analysis suggests that a very high carbon tax rate would have to be imposed in order to achieve a 25% reduction in GHG emissions in 2020 (compared to 1990 levels) while simultaneously phasing out nuclear power. - Highlights: • We modelled 12 scenarios for Japan with different shares for nuclear power and different emission targets. • The results showed that phasing out nuclear power would have at most a very small reduction in GDP. • If a carbon tax with revenue recycling is applied, there could be an increase in GDP. • But the carbon price required to meet Japan's 25% emission reduction target is very high if the share of nuclear power is reduced

  6. Research and development of system to utilize photovoltaic energy. Study on the scenario for the diffusion of photovoltaic power generating systems; Taiyoko hatsuden riyo sytem no kenkyu kaihatsu. Taiyoko hatsuden donyu fukyu scenario sakusei no tame no chosa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tatsuta, M [New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization, Tokyo (Japan)

    1994-12-01

    This paper reports the result obtained during fiscal 1994 on a survey to prepare scenario for the diffusion of photovoltaic power generating systems. Introduction target planned with help of a diffusion simulation was verified by calculations using simulation models. The calculations made the following points clear: facility costs and power generation costs for photovoltaic power generation systems, amount of introduced photovoltaic power generation systems, number of facilities introducing photovoltaic power generation systems, policy cost to achieve the target, annual power generation amount, oil substituting effect, carbon dioxide reducing effect, and market sizes. Power generation cost in fiscal 2000 would drop down to 53 yen per kWh in new installation in independent houses and down to 31 yen per kWh in systems used in schools. These reductions are the result of progress in mass production as a result of positively implementing the aiding policies. The required diffusion aiding policies revealed from the simulation results include expansion of subsidy operations for house construction, introduction of the systems into public facilities performed by public organizations, aid to system introduction into private business entities, subsidy to facility investments, and enforcement of power purchase institutions. 3 figs.

  7. Does environmental regulation affect energy efficiency in China's thermal power generation? Empirical evidence from a slacks-based DEA model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bi, Gong-Bing; Song, Wen; Zhou, P.; Liang, Liang

    2014-01-01

    Data envelopment analysis (DEA) has gained much popularity in performance measurement of power industry. This paper presents a slack-based measure approach to investigating the relationship between fossil fuel consumption and the environmental regulation of China's thermal power generation. We first calculate the total-factor energy efficiency without considering environmental constraints. An environmental performance indicator is proposed through decomposing the total-factor energy efficiency. The proposed approach is then employed to examine whether environmental regulation affects the energy efficiency of China's thermal power generation. We find that the environmental efficiency plays a significant role in affecting energy performance of China's thermal generation sector. Decreasing the discharge of major pollutants can improve both energy performance and environmental efficiency. Besides, we also have three main findings: (1) The energy efficiency and environmental efficiency were relatively low. (2) The energy and environmental efficiency scores show great variations among provinces. (3) Both energy efficiency and environmental efficiency are of obvious geographical characteristics. According to our findings, we suggest some policy implications. - Highlights: • We assess the energy efficiency and the environmental efficiency of China's thermal power generation simultaneously. • The energy efficiency and the environmental efficiency were relatively low during 2007–2009. • The energy efficiency and environmental efficiency show obvious geographic characters. • The environmental performance of a DMU plays a decisive role in the energy performance

  8. Investigating the Trade-Off Between Power Generation and Environmental Impact of Tidal-Turbine Arrays Using Array Layout Optimisation and Habitat Sustainability Modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    du Feu, R. J.; Funke, S. W.; Kramer, S. C.; Hill, J.; Piggott, M. D.

    2016-12-01

    The installation of tidal turbines into the ocean will inevitably affect the environment around them. However, due to the relative infancy of this sector the extent and severity of such effects is unknown. The layout of an array of turbines is an important factor in determining not only the array's final yield but also how it will influence regional hydrodynamics. This in turn could affect, for example, sediment transportation or habitat suitability. The two potentially competing objectives of extracting energy from the tidal current, and of limiting any environmental impact consequent to influencing that current, are investigated here. This relationship is posed as a multi-objective optimisation problem. OpenTidalFarm, an array layout optimisation tool, and MaxEnt, habitat sustainability modelling software, are used to evaluate scenarios off the coast of the UK. MaxEnt is used to estimate the likelihood of finding a species in a given location based upon environmental input data and presence data of the species. Environmental features which are known to impact habitat, specifically those affected by the presence of an array, such as bed shear stress, are chosen as inputs. MaxEnt then uses a maximum-entropy modelling approach to estimate population distribution across the modelled area. OpenTidalFarm is used to maximise the power generated by an array, or multiple arrays, through adjusting the position and number of turbines within them. It uses a 2D shallow water model with turbine arrays represented as adjustable friction fields. It has the capability to also optimise for user created functionals that can be expressed mathematically. This work uses two functionals; power extracted by the array, and the suitability of habitat as predicted by MaxEnt. A gradient-based local optimisation is used to adjust the array layout at each iteration. This work presents arrays that are optimised for both yield and the viability of habitat for chosen species. In each scenario

  9. Scenario analysis for estimating the learning rate of photovoltaic power generation based on learning curve theory in South Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong, Sungjun; Chung, Yanghon; Woo, Chungwon

    2015-01-01

    South Korea, as the 9th largest energy consuming in 2013 and the 7th largest greenhouse gas emitting country in 2011, established ‘Low Carbon Green Growth’ as the national vision in 2008, and is announcing various active energy policies that are set to gain the attention of the world. In this paper, we estimated the decrease of photovoltaic power generation cost in Korea based on the learning curve theory. Photovoltaic energy is one of the leading renewable energy sources, and countries all over the world are currently expanding R and D, demonstration and deployment of photovoltaic technology. In order to estimate the learning rate of photovoltaic energy in Korea, both conventional 1FLC (one-factor learning curve), which considers only the cumulative power generation, and 2FLC, which also considers R and D investment were applied. The 1FLC analysis showed that the cost of power generation decreased by 3.1% as the cumulative power generation doubled. The 2FCL analysis presented that the cost decreases by 2.33% every time the cumulative photovoltaic power generation is doubled and by 5.13% every time R and D investment is doubled. Moreover, the effect of R and D investment on photovoltaic technology took after around 3 years, and the depreciation rate of R and D investment was around 20%. - Highlights: • We analyze the learning effects of photovoltaic energy technology in Korea. • In order to calculate the learning rate, we use 1FLC (one-factor learning curve) and 2FLC methods, respectively. • 1FLC method considers only the cumulative power generation. • 2FLC method considers both cumulative power generation and knowledge stock. • We analyze a variety of scenarios by time lag and depreciation rate of R and D investment

  10. Scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

    2011-03-01

    In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

  11. U. S. electricity shortfall: three scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vanderslice, T.A.

    1979-01-01

    Scenarios in which no nuclear-generating capacity is added between 1981 and 1985 and the goal of doubling coal utilization is only 50% successful show electric power shortfalls over most of the U.S. by 1985, with the industrial central regions the hardest hit. Since conservation alone cannot carry the nation through a transition from oil dependence to coal and nuclear, the author stresses the importance of identifying the consequences of such a shortfall. General Electric's scenarios are projected for shortfalls in energy supply, electric power, and oil and natural gas to determine the effect on gross national product, business investment, production growth, inflation foreign exchange rates, and employment levels. Near-term crises in power plant shortages are indicated by the energy models.

  12. Energy perspectives 2035 - Volume 2, scenarios I to IV

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirchner, A.

    2007-01-01

    This comprehensive report published by the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) takes a look at the four scenarios concerning future developments in Swiss energy supply policy. The four complex scenarios include variants entitled 'business as usual', 'increased co-operation', 'new priorities' and 'on the way to a 2000-Watt society'. These scenarios deal with the development of energy demand and electricity offerings in Switzerland for the period 1990 to 2035. They are reviewed in the light of various sensitivity factors. These sensitivity factors include a high GDP, oil prices of 50 US-dollars per barrel and a warmer climate. The report presents the results of the model calculations made. First of all, the report takes a look at the motivation and aims behind the work and discusses the modelling methods, system limits and conventions used and the possibilities offered by the perspectives as well as the limits encountered. The four scenarios are then presented and discussed in detail. Implementation variants in the private, services, industrial and traffic sectors are discussed and various electricity supply variants are presented, as are the associated environmental issues involved. The scenarios are compared with each other and pricing and security of supply issues are discussed. Finally, a short synopsis of the scenarios is presented and decision criteria are discussed as are implementation instruments. Ethical dilemmas and the risks involved are noted

  13. The environmental interactions of tidal and wave energy generation devices

    OpenAIRE

    Frid, C.; Andonegi, E.; Depestele, J.; Judd, A.; Rihan, D.; Rogers, S.I.; Kenchington, E.

    2012-01-01

    Global energy demand continues to grow and tidal and wave energy generation devices can provide a significant source of renewable energy. Technological developments in offshore engineering and the rising cost of traditional energy means that offshore energy resources will be economic in the next few years. While there is now a growing body of data on the ecological impacts of offshore wind farms, the scientific basis on which to make informed decisions about the environmental effects of other...

  14. Environmental impacts of electric vehicles in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Glasser

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Electric vehicles have been seen by some policymakers as a tool to target reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.1,2 Some researchers have shown that the full environmental impact of electric vehicles depends very much on the cleanliness of the electricity grid.3 In countries such as the USA and China, where coal-fired power plants still play a very important role in electricity generation, the environmental impact of electric vehicles is equivalent to, or even higher than that of cars running on internal combustion engines.4,5 In this study, the environmental impacts of electric vehicles in South Africa were investigated. We found that, as the bulk of South Africa’s electricity is generated from relatively low-quality coal and the advanced exhaust clean up technologies are not implemented in the current coal-fired power plants, the use of electric vehicles in South Africa would not help to cut greenhouse gas emissions now (2010 or in the future (in 2030 using the IRP 2010 Revision 2, policy-adjusted IRP scenario, and actually would lead to higher SOx and NOx emissions.

  15. Spatial Analysis of Environmental Change Impacts on Wheat Production in Mid-Lower North, South Australia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luo, Q.; Williams, M. [Department of Geographical and Environmental Studies, University of Adelaide, South Australia, 5005 (Australia); Bryan, BV. [Policy and Economic Research Unit, CSIRO Land and Water, Private Bag 2, Glen Osmond, South Australia, 5064 (Australia); Bellotti, W. [School of Agriculture and Wine, University of Adelaide, South Australia, 5371 (Australia)

    2005-09-01

    Three environmental change scenarios (the best scenario, the most likely scenario and the worst scenario) were used by the APSIM (Agricultural Production System sIMulator) Wheat module to study the possible impacts of future environmental change (climate change plus pCO2 change) on wheat production in the Mid-Lower North of South Australia. GIS software was used to manage spatial-climate data and spatial-soil data and to present the results. Study results show that grain yield (kg ha{sup -1}) was adversely affected under the worst environmental change scenario (-100% {approx} -42%) and the most likely environmental change scenario (-58% {approx} -3%). Grain nitrogen content (% N) either increased or decreased depending on the environmental change scenarios used and climate divisions (-25% {approx} +42%). Spatial variability was found for projected impact outcomes within climate divisions indicating the necessity of including the spatial distribution of soil properties in impact assessment.

  16. New Methods for Crafting Locally Decision-Relevant Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lempert, R. J.

    2015-12-01

    Scenarios can play an important role in helping decision makers to imagine future worlds, both good and bad, different than the one with which we are familiar and to take concrete steps now to address the risks generated by climate change. At their best, scenarios can effectively represent deep uncertainty; integrate over multiple domains; and enable parties with different expectation and values to expand the range of futures they consider, to see the world from different points of view, and to grapple seriously with the potential implications of surprising or inconvenient futures. These attributes of scenario processes can prove crucial in helping craft effective responses to climate change. But traditional scenario methods can also fail to overcome difficulties related to choosing, communicating, and using scenarios to identify, evaluate, and reach consensus on appropriate policies. Such challenges can limit scenario's impact in broad public discourse. This talk will demonstrate how new decision support approaches can employ new quantitative tools that allow scenarios to emerge from a process of deliberation with analysis among stakeholders, rather than serve as inputs to it, thereby increasing the impacts of scenarios on decision making. This talk will demonstrate these methods in the design of a decision support tool to help residents of low lying coastal cities grapple with the long-term risks of sea level rise. In particular, this talk will show how information from the IPCC SSP's can be combined with local information to provide a rich set of locally decision-relevant information.

  17. Modelling and exergoeconomic-environmental analysis of combined cycle power generation system using flameless burner for steam generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hosseini, Seyed Ehsan; Barzegaravval, Hasan; Ganjehkaviri, Abdolsaeid; Wahid, Mazlan Abdul; Mohd Jaafar, M.N.

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Using flameless burner as a supplementary firing system after gas turbine is modeled. • Thermodynamic, economic and environmental analyses of this model are performed. • Efficiency of the plant increases about 6% and CO_2 emission decreases up to 5.63% in this design. • Available exergy for work production in both gas cycle and steam cycle increases in this model. - Abstract: To have an optimum condition for the performance of a combined cycle power generation, using supplementary firing system after gas turbine was investigated by various researchers. Since the temperature of turbine exhaust is higher than auto-ignition temperature of the fuel in optimum condition, using flameless burner is modelled in this paper. Flameless burner is installed between gas turbine cycle and Rankine cycle of a combined cycle power plant which one end is connected to the outlet of gas turbine (as primary combustion oxidizer) and the other end opened to the heat recovery steam generator. Then, the exergoeconomic-environmental analysis of the proposed model is evaluated. Results demonstrate that efficiency of the combined cycle power plant increases about 6% and CO_2 emission reduces up to 5.63% in this proposed model. It is found that the variation in the cost is less than 1% due to the fact that a cost constraint is implemented to be equal or lower than the design point cost. Moreover, exergy of flow gases increases in all points except in heat recovery steam generator. Hence, available exergy for work production in both gas cycle and steam cycle will increase in new model.

  18. Application of an uncertainty analysis approach to strategic environmental assessment for urban planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yi; Chen, Jining; He, Weiqi; Tong, Qingyuan; Li, Wangfeng

    2010-04-15

    Urban planning has been widely applied as a regulatory measure to guide a city's construction and management. It represents official expectations on future population and economic growth and land use over the urban area. No doubt, significant variations often occur between planning schemes and actual development; in particular in China, the world's largest developing country experiencing rapid urbanization and industrialization. This in turn leads to difficulty in estimating the environmental consequences of the urban plan. Aiming to quantitatively analyze the uncertain environmental impacts of the urban plan's implementation, this article developed an integrated methodology combining a scenario analysis approach and a stochastic simulation technique for strategic environmental assessment (SEA). Based on industrial development scenarios, Monte Carlo sampling is applied to generate all possibilities of the spatial distribution of newly emerged industries. All related environmental consequences can be further estimated given the industrial distributions as input to environmental quality models. By applying a HSY algorithm, environmentally unacceptable urban growth, regarding both economic development and land use spatial layout, can be systematically identified, providing valuable information to urban planners and decision makers. A case study in Dalian Municipality, Northeast China, is used to illustrate applicability of this methodology. The impacts of Urban Development Plan for Dalian Municipality (2003-2020) (UDP) on atmospheric environment are also discussed in this article.

  19. Hydro-Thermal-Wind Generation Scheduling Considering Economic and Environmental Factors Using Heuristic Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suresh K. Damodaran

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Hydro-thermal-wind generation scheduling (HTWGS with economic and environmental factors is a multi-objective complex nonlinear power system optimization problem with many equality and inequality constraints. The objective of the problem is to generate an hour-by-hour optimum schedule of hydro-thermal-wind power plants to attain the least emission of pollutants from thermal plants and a reduced generation cost of thermal and wind plants for a 24-h period, satisfying the system constraints. The paper presents a detailed framework of the HTWGS problem and proposes a modified particle swarm optimization (MPSO algorithm for evolving a solution. The competency of selected heuristic algorithms, representing different heuristic groups, viz. the binary coded genetic algorithm (BCGA, particle swarm optimization (PSO, improved harmony search (IHS, and JAYA algorithm, for searching for an optimal solution to HTWGS considering economic and environmental factors was investigated in a trial system consisting of a multi-stream cascaded system with four reservoirs, three thermal plants, and two wind plants. Appropriate mathematical models were used for representing the water discharge, generation cost, and pollutant emission of respective power plants incorporated in the system. Statistical analysis was performed to check the consistency and reliability of the proposed algorithm. The simulation results indicated that the proposed MPSO algorithm provided a better solution to the problem of HTWGS, with a reduced generation cost and the least emission, when compared with the other heuristic algorithms considered.

  20. Comparative environmental analysis of waste brominated plastic thermal treatments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bientinesi, M.; Petarca, L.

    2009-01-01

    The aim of this research activity is to investigate the environmental impact of different thermal treatments of waste electric and electronic equipment (WEEE), applying a life cycle assessment methodology. Two scenarios were assessed, which both allow the recovery of bromine: (A) the co-combustion of WEEE and green waste in a municipal solid waste combustion plant, and (B) the staged-gasification of WEEE and combustion of produced syngas in gas turbines. Mass and energy balances on the two scenarios were set and the analysis of the life cycle inventory and the life cycle impact assessment were conducted. Two impact assessment methods (Ecoindicator 99 and Impact 2002+) were slightly modified and then used with both scenarios. The results showed that scenario B (staged-gasification) had a potentially smaller environmental impact than scenario A (co-combustion). In particular, the thermal treatment of staged-gasification was more energy efficient than co-combustion, and therefore scenario B performed better than scenario A, mainly in the impact categories of 'fossil fuels' and 'climate change'. Moreover, the results showed that scenario B allows a higher recovery of bromine than scenario A; however, Br recovery leads to environmental benefits for both the scenarios. Finally the study demonstrates that WEEE thermal treatment for energy and matter recovery is an eco-efficient way to dispose of this kind of waste