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Sample records for enso phase predictions

  1. Assessing probabilistic predictions of ENSO phase and intensity from the North American Multimodel Ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tippett, Michael K.; Ranganathan, Meghana; L'Heureux, Michelle; Barnston, Anthony G.; DelSole, Timothy

    2017-05-01

    Here we examine the skill of three, five, and seven-category monthly ENSO probability forecasts (1982-2015) from single and multi-model ensemble integrations of the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) project. Three-category forecasts are typical and provide probabilities for the ENSO phase (El Niño, La Niña or neutral). Additional forecast categories indicate the likelihood of ENSO conditions being weak, moderate or strong. The level of skill observed for differing numbers of forecast categories can help to determine the appropriate degree of forecast precision. However, the dependence of the skill score itself on the number of forecast categories must be taken into account. For reliable forecasts with same quality, the ranked probability skill score (RPSS) is fairly insensitive to the number of categories, while the logarithmic skill score (LSS) is an information measure and increases as categories are added. The ignorance skill score decreases to zero as forecast categories are added, regardless of skill level. For all models, forecast formats and skill scores, the northern spring predictability barrier explains much of the dependence of skill on target month and forecast lead. RPSS values for monthly ENSO forecasts show little dependence on the number of categories. However, the LSS of multimodel ensemble forecasts with five and seven categories show statistically significant advantages over the three-category forecasts for the targets and leads that are least affected by the spring predictability barrier. These findings indicate that current prediction systems are capable of providing more detailed probabilistic forecasts of ENSO phase and amplitude than are typically provided.

  2. Effects of ocean initial perturbation on developing phase of ENSO in a coupled seasonal prediction model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Hyun-Chul; Kumar, Arun; Wang, Wanqiu

    2018-03-01

    Coupled prediction systems for seasonal and inter-annual variability in the tropical Pacific are initialized from ocean analyses. In ocean initial states, small scale perturbations are inevitably smoothed or distorted by the observational limits and data assimilation procedures, which tends to induce potential ocean initial errors for the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction. Here, the evolution and effects of ocean initial errors from the small scale perturbation on the developing phase of ENSO are investigated by an ensemble of coupled model predictions. Results show that the ocean initial errors at the thermocline in the western tropical Pacific grow rapidly to project on the first mode of equatorial Kelvin wave and propagate to the east along the thermocline. In boreal spring when the surface buoyancy flux weakens in the eastern tropical Pacific, the subsurface errors influence sea surface temperature variability and would account for the seasonal dependence of prediction skill in the NINO3 region. It is concluded that the ENSO prediction in the eastern tropical Pacific after boreal spring can be improved by increasing the observational accuracy of subsurface ocean initial states in the western tropical Pacific.

  3. Climate Prediction Center - The ENSO Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site Map News Web resources and services. HOME > El Niño/La Niña > The ENSO Cycle ENSO Cycle Banner Climate for Weather and Climate Prediction Climate Prediction Center 5830 University Research Court College

  4. Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall associated with ENSO and its Predictability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, C. S.; Huang, B.; Zhu, J.; Marx, L.; Kinter, J. L.; Shukla, J.

    2015-12-01

    The leading modes of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) rainfall variability and their seasonal predictability are investigated using the CFSv2 hindcasts initialized from multiple ocean analyses over the period of 1979-2008 and observation-based analyses. It is shown that the two leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of the observed ASM rainfall anomalies, which together account for about 34% of total variance, largely correspond to the ASM responses to the ENSO influences during the summers of the developing and decaying years of a Pacific anomalous event, respectively. These two ASM modes are then designated as the contemporary and delayed ENSO responses, respectively. It is demonstrated that the CFSv2 is capable of predicting these two dominant ASM modes up to the lead of 5 months. More importantly, the predictability of the ASM rainfall are much higher with respect to the delayed ENSO mode than the contemporary one, with the predicted principal component time series of the former maintaining high correlation skill and small ensemble spread with all lead months whereas the latter shows significant degradation in both measures with lead-time. A composite analysis for the ASM rainfall anomalies of all warm ENSO events in this period substantiates the finding that the ASM is more predictable following an ENSO event. The enhanced predictability mainly comes from the evolution of the warm SST anomalies over the Indian Ocean in the spring of the ENSO maturing phases and the persistence of the anomalous high sea surface pressure over the western Pacific in the subsequent summer, which the hindcasts are able to capture reasonably well. The results also show that the ensemble initialization with multiple ocean analyses improves the CFSv2's prediction skill of both ENSO and ASM rainfall. In fact, the skills of the ensemble mean hindcasts initialized from the four different ocean analyses are always equivalent to the best ones initialized from any individual ocean

  5. Different impacts of mega-ENSO and conventional ENSO on the Indian summer rainfall: developing phase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Lei; Wu, Zhiwei; Zhou, Yefan

    2016-04-01

    Mega-El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a boarder version of conventional ENSO, is found to be a main driving force of Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon rainfall including the Indian summer rainfall (ISR). The simultaneous impacts of "pure" mega-ENSO and "pure" conventional ENSO events on the ISR in its developing summer remains unclear. This study examines the different linkages between mega-ENSO-ISR and conventional ENSO-ISR. During the developing summer of mega-El Niño, negative rainfall anomalies are seen over the northeastern Indian subcontinent, while the anomalous rainfall pattern is almost the opposite for mega-La Niña; as for the conventional ENSO, the approximate "linear opposite" phenomenon vanishes. Furthermore, the global zonal wave trains anomalous are found at mid-latitude zones, with a local triple circulation pattern over the central-east Eurasia during mega-ENSO events, which might be an explanation of corresponding rainfall response over the Indian Peninsula. Among 106-year historical run (1900-2005) of 9 state-of-the-art models from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), HadGEM2-ES performs a promising skill in simulating the anomalous circulation pattern over mid-latitude and central-east Eurasia while CanESM2 cannot. Probably, it is the models' ability of capturing the mega-ENSO-ISR linkage and the characteristic of mega-ENSO that make the difference.

  6. Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Organization Search Go Search the CPC Go Expert Assessments ENSO Diagnostic Discussion Archive About Us Our Assessments > ENSO Diagnostic Discussion El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion PDF : English Version Spanish Version Adobe PDF Reader (Click icon for Adobe PDF Reader) Word: English Version

  7. Mean Bias in Seasonal Forecast Model and ENSO Prediction Error.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Seon Tae; Jeong, Hye-In; Jin, Fei-Fei

    2017-07-20

    This study uses retrospective forecasts made using an APEC Climate Center seasonal forecast model to investigate the cause of errors in predicting the amplitude of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-driven sea surface temperature variability. When utilizing Bjerknes coupled stability (BJ) index analysis, enhanced errors in ENSO amplitude with forecast lead times are found to be well represented by those in the growth rate estimated by the BJ index. ENSO amplitude forecast errors are most strongly associated with the errors in both the thermocline slope response and surface wind response to forcing over the tropical Pacific, leading to errors in thermocline feedback. This study concludes that upper ocean temperature bias in the equatorial Pacific, which becomes more intense with increasing lead times, is a possible cause of forecast errors in the thermocline feedback and thus in ENSO amplitude.

  8. Tropical cyclone prediction skills - MJO and ENSO dependence in S2S data sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, C. Y.; Camargo, S.; Vitart, F.; Sobel, A. H.; Tippett, M.

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) are two important climate controls on tropical cyclone (TC) activity. The seasonal prediction skill of dynamical models is determined in large part by their accurate representations of the ENSO-TC relationship. Regarding intraseasonal TC variability, observations suggest MJO to be the primary control. Given the ongoing effort to develop dynamical seasonal-to-subseasonal (S2S) TC predictions, it is important to examine whether the global models, running on S2S timescales, are able to reproduce these known ENSO-TC and MJO-TC relationships, and how this ability affects forecasting skill. Results from the S2S project (from F. Vitart) suggest that global models have skill in predicting MJO phase with up to two weeks of lead time (four weeks for ECMWF). Meanwhile, our results show that, qualitatively speaking, the MJO-TC relationship in storm genesis is reasonably captured, with some models (e.g., ECMWF, BoM, NCEP, MetFr) performing better than the others. However, we also find that model skill in predicting basin-wide genesis and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) are mainly due to the models' ability to capture the climatological seasonality. Removing the seasonality significantly reduces the models' skill; even the best model (ECMWF) in the most reliable basin (western north Pacific and Atlantic) has very little skill (close to 0.1 in Brier skill score for genesis and close to 0 in rank probability skill score for ACE). This brings up the question: do any factors contribute to intraseasonal TC prediction skill other than seasonality? Is the low skill, after removing the seasonality, due to poor MJO and ENSO simulations, or to poor representation of other ENSO-TC or MJO-TC relationships, such as ENSO's impact on the storm tracks? We will quantitatively discuss the dependence of the TC prediction skill on ENSO and MJO, focusing on Western North Pacific and Atlantic, where we have sufficient

  9. Initialization and Predictability of a Coupled ENSO Forecast Model

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    Chen, Dake; Zebiak, Stephen E.; Cane, Mark A.; Busalacchi, Antonio J.

    1997-01-01

    The skill of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model in predicting ENSO has recently been improved using a new initialization procedure in which initial conditions are obtained from the coupled model, nudged toward observations of wind stress. The previous procedure involved direct insertion of wind stress observations, ignoring model feedback from ocean to atmosphere. The success of the new scheme is attributed to its explicit consideration of ocean-atmosphere coupling and the associated reduction of "initialization shock" and random noise. The so-called spring predictability barrier is eliminated, suggesting that such a barrier is not intrinsic to the real climate system. Initial attempts to generalize the nudging procedure to include SST were not successful; possible explanations are offered. In all experiments forecast skill is found to be much higher for the 1980s than for the 1970s and 1990s, suggesting decadal variations in predictability.

  10. The ENSO Impact on Predicting World Cocoa Prices

    OpenAIRE

    Ubilava, David; Helmers, Claes Gustav

    2011-01-01

    Cocoa beans are produced in equatorial and sub-equatorial regions of West Africa, Southeast Asia and South America. These are also the regions most affected by El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) -- a climatic anomaly affecting temperature and precipitation in many parts of the world. Thus, ENSO, has a potential of affecting cocoa production and, subsequently, prices on the world market. This study investigates the benefits of using a measure of ENSO variable in world cocoa price forecasting ...

  11. Impact of global warming on ENSO phase change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Cabos Narvaez

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available We compare the physical mechanisms involved in the generation and decay of ENSO events in a control (present day conditions and Scenario (Is92a, IPCC 1996 simulations performed with the coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM ECHAM4-OPYC3. A clustering technique which objectively discriminates common features in the evolution of the Tropical Pacific Heat Content anomalies leading to the peak of ENSO events allows us to group into a few classes the ENSO events occurring in 240 years of data in the control and scenario runs. In both simulations, the composites of the groups show differences in the generation and development of ENSO. We present the changes in the statistics of the groups and explore the possible mechanisms involved.

  12. NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostics Discussion

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The ENSO Diagnostics Discussion (EDD) is issued by NOAA Climate Prediction Center each month on the Thursday between the 5th and 11th with few exceptions (major...

  13. La pluviométrie au Pérou pendant les phases ENSO et LNSO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available Les données mensuelles (1960-1990 de précipitations de 21 stations situées dans les trois domaines physiques du Pérou (côte, Andes et plaine amazonienne sont analysées lors des phases ENSO et LNSO de l’Oscillation Australe du Pacifique. Ce n’est qu’à Piura, dans la région côtière du Nord, que les excédents sont significatifs en phase ENSO (test de Kolmogorov-Smirnov mais les volumes précipités sont très différents d’un événement à l’autre. Ailleurs, n’apparaît pas de différence significative entre les pluies des phases ENSO (ou LNSO et celles des périodes normales. Toutefois, la pluviométrie est souvent déficitaire dans les Andes en phase ENSO en période LNSO, elle est également déficitaire au Sud des Andes, mais plus souvent excédentaire au Nord. Dans la plaine amazonienne, la variabilité spatio-temporelle est trop importante lors des deux phases pour que soit esquissé un comportement général. LA PLUVIOMETRÍA EN EL PERÚ DURANTE LAS FASES ENSO Y LNSO. Los datos mensuales (1960-1990 de precipitación de 21 estaciones ubicadas en la Costa, la Sierra y la Selva de Perú son estudiados durante las fases ENSO y LNSO de la Oscilación del Sur del Pacífico. Las lluvias de Piura, en el norte de la Costa, son las únicas que presentan excesos significativos (test de Kolmogorov-Smirnov durante la fase ENSO pero los volúmenes cambian mucho de un evento a otro. No hay, en otros lugares, diferencia significativa entre las lluvias de las fases ENSO (o LNSO y las lluvias de años normales. Pero, muchas veces, la pluviosidad es deficitaria en los Andes durante los ENSO durante los eventos LNSO, las lluvias son también deficitarias en los Andes del Sur, pero más veces hay excesos en el Norte. En la Selva Amazónica, la variabilidad espacio-temporal es demasiado grande para dibujar un comportamiento general. RAINFALL IN PERU DURING THE ENSO AND LNSO PHASES. Monthly rainfall data (1960-1990 taken from 21 stations in three

  14. Improved predictability of droughts over southern Africa using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index and ENSO

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    Manatsa, Desmond; Mushore, Terrence; Lenouo, Andre

    2017-01-01

    The provision of timely and reliable climate information on which to base management decisions remains a critical component in drought planning for southern Africa. In this observational study, we have not only proposed a forecasting scheme which caters for timeliness and reliability but improved relevance of the climate information by using a novel drought index called the standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), instead of the traditional precipitation only based index, the standardised precipitation index (SPI). The SPEI which includes temperature and other climatic factors in its construction has a more robust connection to ENSO than the SPI. Consequently, the developed ENSO-SPEI prediction scheme can provide quantitative information about the spatial extent and severity of predicted drought conditions in a way that reflects more closely the level of risk in the global warming context of the sub region. However, it is established that the ENSO significant regional impact is restricted only to the period December-March, implying a revisit to the traditional ENSO-based forecast scheme which essentially divides the rainfall season into the two periods, October to December and January to March. Although the prediction of ENSO events has increased with the refinement of numerical models, this work has demonstrated that the prediction of drought impacts related to ENSO is also a reality based only on observations. A large temporal lag is observed between the development of ENSO phenomena (typically in May of the previous year) and the identification of regional SPEI defined drought conditions. It has been shown that using the Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum's (SARCOF) traditional 3-month averaged Nino 3.4 SST index (June to August) as a predictor does not have an added advantage over using only the May SST index values. In this regard, the extended lead time and improved skill demonstrated in this study could immensely benefit

  15. Global land carbon sink response to temperature and precipitation varies with ENSO phase

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fang, Yuanyuan; Michalak, Anna M.; Schwalm, Christopher R.; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; Berry, Joseph A.; Ciais, Philippe; Piao, Shilong; Poulter, Benjamin; Fisher, Joshua B.; Cook, Robert B.; Hayes, Daniel; Huang, Maoyi; Ito, Akihiko; Jain, Atul; Lei, Huimin; Lu, Chaoqun; Mao, Jiafu; Parazoo, Nicholas C.; Peng, Shushi; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Shi, Xiaoying; Tao, Bo; Tian, Hanqin; Wang, Weile; Wei, Yaxing; Yang, Jia

    2017-05-01

    Climate variability associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its consequent impacts on land carbon sink interannual variability have been used as a basis for investigating carbon cycle responses to climate variability more broadly, and to inform the sensitivity of the tropical carbon budget to climate change. Past studies have presented opposing views about whether temperature or precipitation is the primary factor driving the response of the land carbon sink to ENSO. Here, we show that the dominant driver varies with ENSO phase. Whereas tropical temperature explains sink dynamics following El Niño conditions (rTG,P=0.59, p<0.01), the post La Niña sink is driven largely by tropical precipitation (rPG,T=-0.46, p=0.04). This finding points to an ENSO-phase-dependent interplay between water availability and temperature in controlling the carbon uptake response to climate variations in tropical ecosystems. We further find that none of a suite of ten contemporary terrestrial biosphere models captures these ENSO-phase-dependent responses, highlighting a key uncertainty in modeling climate impacts on the future of the global land carbon sink.

  16. Identification of symmetric and asymmetric responses in seasonal streamflow globally to ENSO phase

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    Lee, Donghoon; Ward, Philip J.; Block, Paul

    2018-04-01

    The phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has large-ranging effects on streamflow and hydrologic conditions globally. While many studies have evaluated this relationship through correlation analysis between annual streamflow and ENSO indices, an assessment of potential asymmetric relationships between ENSO and streamflow is lacking. Here, we evaluate seasonal variations in streamflow by ENSO phase to identify asymmetric (AR) and symmetric (SR) spatial pattern responses globally and further corroborate with local precipitation and hydrological condition. The AR and SR patterns between seasonal precipitation and streamflow are identified at many locations for the first time. Our results identify strong SR patterns in particular regions including northwestern and southern US, northeastern and southeastern South America, northeastern and southern Africa, southwestern Europe, and central-south Russia. The seasonally lagged anomalous streamflow patterns are also identified and attributed to snowmelt, soil moisture, and/or cumulative hydrological processes across river basins. These findings may be useful in water resources management and natural hazards planning by better characterizing the propensity of flood or drought conditions by ENSO phase.

  17. Tailoring wheat management to ENSO phases for increased wheat production in Paraguay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melissa A. Ramirez-Rodrigues

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Reported regional wheat yields in Paraguay vary from 1 to 3 t/ha from year to year, but appear not to be correlated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO phases. Historical weather data from two locations in representative wheat-growing regions of Paraguay, Encarnación-Itapúa and Ciudad del Este-Alto Paraná combined with crop modeling, were analyzed to optimize nitrogen (N fertilizer application rates according to the ENSO phase of a growing season. The ENSO phase of a growing season was defined based on the average of the sea surface temperature (SST anomalies in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific region for the period June–October using the El Niño region 3.0 index (Niño 3.0. Simulated average yields in Alto Paraná were higher in the drier and cooler La Niña wheat-growing seasons (average of 3.5 t/ha compared to the other phases (average of 3.2 t/ha and in Itapúa, in Neutral seasons (average of 3.8 t/ha compared to the other phases (average of 3.7 t/ha. Accordingly, optimal N fertilizer applications ranged between 20 and 60 kg N/ha between phases depending on the sowing date, soil type and initial amount of soil water content. Applying an ENSO or General Circulation Model (GCM-based forecast for ENSO-season-type specific N fertilizer applications resulted in benefits of >100 US$/ha when compared with current farmers’ practice of consistently low N fertilizer applications in Paraguay. When N management based on forecasts was compared with optimized N application without forecast, the benefits of the forecast was only up to 8 US$/ha. The ENSO-persistence-based forecast showed higher values than the GCM-based forecasts with two lead-times but lower skill. Using climate information can significantly increase current wheat yields and gross margins in Paraguay by tailoring N fertilizer applications to the Niño 3.0-defined ENSO phases, which can be forecasted with moderate skill at the beginning of the growing season.

  18. Evaluation of the impact of ENSO on precipitation extremes in southern Brazil considering the ODP phases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Firpo, M. A.; Sansigolo, C. A.

    2011-12-01

    One of the most important modes of interannual variability from ocean-atmosphere system is the El Niño/Southern Oscillation - ENSO. The Brazil southern region belongs to the Southeast of South America, where there is a strong signal of ENSO, especially over the precipitation. This phenomenon can be modulated by low frequency climate patterns, especially the dominant pattern of North Pacific, called Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Attempting to better understand these interactions, the objective of this study was to investigate the seasonal impact of ENSO events over the Southern Brazil precipitation, taking into account the PDO phases. The dataset used in this study, consist of monthly precipitation records of six well distributed stations from southern Brazil (Rio Grande do Sul state). From these series it was calculated a unique index, which was categorized in three classes, in order to obtain the extremes: very below normal precipitation (below the percentile 10), normal precipitation (between percentile 10 and 90) and very above normal precipitation (above the percentile 90). To characterize the ENSO events, it was applied the Trenberth (1997) criteria in the index proposed by Bunge and Clarke (2009), which corrects the inconsistencies between the conventional SST index for Niño 3.4 region and the Southern Oscillation Index before 1950, going beyond the incoherence for decadal scale. For PDO, it was used the index proposed by Mantua et al. (1997). Contingency tables were constructed to analyze the seasonal, simultaneous, and 3, 6, 9 and 12 months lagged relationships between ENSO events (El Niño, neutral, La Niña), and extreme precipitation anomalies (categories), also considering the PDO phases during the 1913-1999 period. Moreover, a wavelet analysis was used to check the coherency and phase among these 3 times series during the 1913-2006 period. The Contingency Tables analysis showed that, generally, there were more positive (negative) precipitation

  19. Impacts of Forest to Urban Land Conversion and ENSO Phase on Water Quality of a Public Water Supply Reservoir

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emile Elias

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We used coupled watershed and reservoir models to evaluate the impacts of deforestation and l Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO phase on drinking water quality. Source water total organic carbon (TOC is especially important due to the potential for production of carcinogenic disinfection byproducts (DBPs. The Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC reservoir model is used to evaluate the difference between daily pre- and post- urbanization nutrients and TOC concentration. Post-disturbance (future reservoir total nitrogen (TN, total phosphorus (TP, TOC and chlorophyll-a concentrations were found to be higher than pre-urbanization (base concentrations (p < 0.05. Predicted future median TOC concentration was 1.1 mg·L−1 (41% higher than base TOC concentration at the source water intake. Simulations show that prior to urbanization, additional water treatment was necessary on 47% of the days between May and October. However, following simulated urbanization, additional drinking water treatment might be continuously necessary between May and October. One of six ENSO indices is weakly negatively correlated with the measured reservoir TOC indicating there may be higher TOC concentrations in times of lower streamflow (La Niña. There is a positive significant correlation between simulated TN and TP concentrations with ENSO suggesting higher concentrations during El Niño.

  20. Climate Prediction Center - Monitoring & Data: Seasonal ENSO Impacts on

    Science.gov (United States)

    page National Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center , state and local government Web resources and services. HOME > Monitoring and Data > U.S. Climate and Climate Prediction Climate Prediction Center 5830 University Research Court College Park, Maryland

  1. The preconditioning role of Tropical Atlantic Variability in the development of the ENSO teleconnection: implications for the prediction of Nordeste rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giannini, A.; Saravanan, R.; Chang, P.

    A comparison of rainfall variability in the semi-arid Brazilian Nordeste in observations and in two sets of model simulations leads to the conclusion that the evolving interaction between Tropical Atlantic Variability (TAV) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon can explain two puzzling features of ENSO's impact on the Nordeste: (1) the event-to-event unpredictability of ENSO's impact; (2) the greater impact of cold rather than warm ENSO events during the past 50 years. The explanation is in the `preconditioning' role of Tropical Atlantic Variability. When, in seasons prior to the mature phase of ENSO, the tropical Atlantic happens to be evolving consistently with the development expected of the ENSO teleconnection, ENSO and TAV add up to force large anomalies in Nordeste rainfall. When it happens to be evolving in opposition to the canonical development of ENSO, then the net outcome is less obvious, but also less anomalous. The more frequent occurrence of tropical Atlantic conditions consistent with those that develop during a cold ENSO event, i.e. of a negative meridional sea surface temperature gradient, explains the weaker warm ENSO and stronger cold ENSO anomalies in Nordeste rainfall of the latter part of the twentieth century. Close monitoring of the evolution of the tropical Atlantic in seasons prior to the mature phase of ENSO should lead to an enhanced forecast potential.

  2. Coupled assimilation for an intermediated coupled ENSO prediction model

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    Zheng, Fei; Zhu, Jiang

    2010-10-01

    The value of coupled assimilation is discussed using an intermediate coupled model in which the wind stress is the only atmospheric state which is slavery to model sea surface temperature (SST). In the coupled assimilation analysis, based on the coupled wind-ocean state covariance calculated from the coupled state ensemble, the ocean state is adjusted by assimilating wind data using the ensemble Kalman filter. As revealed by a series of assimilation experiments using simulated observations, the coupled assimilation of wind observations yields better results than the assimilation of SST observations. Specifically, the coupled assimilation of wind observations can help to improve the accuracy of the surface and subsurface currents because the correlation between the wind and ocean currents is stronger than that between SST and ocean currents in the equatorial Pacific. Thus, the coupled assimilation of wind data can decrease the initial condition errors in the surface/subsurface currents that can significantly contribute to SST forecast errors. The value of the coupled assimilation of wind observations is further demonstrated by comparing the prediction skills of three 12-year (1997-2008) hindcast experiments initialized by the ocean-only assimilation scheme that assimilates SST observations, the coupled assimilation scheme that assimilates wind observations, and a nudging scheme that nudges the observed wind stress data, respectively. The prediction skills of two assimilation schemes are significantly better than those of the nudging scheme. The prediction skills of assimilating wind observations are better than assimilating SST observations. Assimilating wind observations for the 2007/2008 La Niña event triggers better predictions, while assimilating SST observations fails to provide an early warning for that event.

  3. Interannual hydroclimatic variability and the 2009-2011 extreme ENSO phases in Colombia: from Andean glaciers to Caribbean lowlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bedoya-Soto, Juan Mauricio; Poveda, Germán; Trenberth, Kevin E.; Vélez-Upegui, Jorge Julián

    2018-03-01

    During 2009-2011, Colombia experienced extreme hydroclimatic events associated with the extreme phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Here, we study the dynamics of diverse land-atmosphere phenomena involved in such anomalous events at continental, regional, and local scales. Standardized anomalies of precipitation, 2-m temperature, total column water (TCW), volumetric soil water (VSW), temperature at 925 hPa, surface sensible heat (SSH), latent heat (SLH), evaporation (EVP), and liquid water equivalent thickness (LWET) are analyzed to assess atmosphere-land controls and relationships over tropical South America (TropSA) during 1986-2013 (long term) and 2009-2011 (ENSO extreme phases). An assessment of the interannual covariability between precipitation and 2-m temperature is performed using singular value decomposition (SVD) to identify the dominant spatiotemporal modes of hydroclimatic variability over the region's largest river basins (Amazon, Orinoco, Tocantins, Magdalena-Cauca, and Essequibo). ENSO, its evolution in time, and strong and consistent spatial structures emerge as the dominant mode of variability. In situ anomalies during both extreme phases of ENSO 2009-2011 over the Magdalena-Cauca River basins are linked at the continental scale. The ENSO-driven hydroclimatic effects extend from the diurnal cycle to interannual timescales, as reflected in temperature data from tropical glaciers and the rain-snow boundary in the highest peaks of the Central Andes of Colombia to river levels along the Caribbean lowlands of the Magdalena-Cauca River basin.

  4. Aspects of extratropical synoptic-scale processes in opposing ENSO phases

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    Schwierz, C.; Wernli, H.; Hess, D.

    2003-04-01

    Energy and momentum provided by anomalous tropical heating/cooling affect the circulation on the global scale. Pacific Sea surface temperature anomalies strongly force local conditions in the equatorial Pacific, but are also known to change the climate in the extratropics, particularly over the American continent. The impact on more remote areas such as the Atlantic-European region is less clear. There the observed effects in both analyses and model studies show dependence on the resolution of the model/data, as well as on the time scales under consideration (Merkel and Latif, 2002; Compo et al., 2001). Most of the previous studies focus on larger-scale processes and seasonal time scales (or longer). Here we concentrate on the impact of opposing ENSO phases on extratropical synoptic-scale dynamics. The investigation is undertaken for the Niño/Niña events of 1972/3 and 1973/4 respectively, for 5 winter months (NDJFM) using ECMWF ERA40 data with 1o× 1o horizontal resolution and 60 vertical levels. The examination of the resulting differences in terms of standard dynamical fields (temperature, sea level pressure, precipitation, geopotential) is complemented with additional diagnostic fields (e.g. potential vorticity (PV), anti-/cyclone tracks and frequencies, PV streamers/cut-offs, blocking) in an attempt to gain more insight into aspects of extratropical synoptic-scale dynamical processes associated with ENSO SST anomalies.

  5. Predictability of a Coupled Model of ENSO Using Singular Vector Analysis: Optimal Growth and Forecast Skill.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Yan

    The optimal growth and its relationship with the forecast skill of the Zebiak and Cane model are studied using a simple statistical model best fit to the original nonlinear model and local linear tangent models about idealized climatic states (the mean background and ENSO cycles in a long model run), and the actual forecast states, including two sets of runs using two different initialization procedures. The seasonally varying Markov model best fit to a suite of 3-year forecasts in a reduced EOF space (18 EOFs) fits the original nonlinear model reasonably well and has comparable or better forecast skill. The initial error growth in a linear evolution operator A is governed by the eigenvalues of A^{T}A, and the square roots of eigenvalues and eigenvectors of A^{T}A are named singular values and singular vectors. One dominant growing singular vector is found, and the optimal 6 month growth rate is largest for a (boreal) spring start and smallest for a fall start. Most of the variation in the optimal growth rate of the two forecasts is seasonal, attributable to the seasonal variations in the mean background, except that in the cold events it is substantially suppressed. It is found that the mean background (zero anomaly) is the most unstable state, and the "forecast IC states" are more unstable than the "coupled model states". One dominant growing singular vector is found, characterized by north-south and east -west dipoles, convergent winds on the equator in the eastern Pacific and a deepened thermocline in the whole equatorial belt. This singular vector is insensitive to initial time and optimization time, but its final pattern is a strong function of initial states. The ENSO system is inherently unpredictable for the dominant singular vector can amplify 5-fold to 24-fold in 6 months and evolve into the large scales characteristic of ENSO. However, the inherent ENSO predictability is only a secondary factor, while the mismatches between the model and data is a

  6. Impacts of forest to urban land conversion and ENSO phase on water quality of a public water supply reservoir

    Science.gov (United States)

    We used coupled watershed and reservoir models to evaluate the impacts of deforestation and ENSO phase on drinking water quality. Source water total organic carbon (TOC) is especially important due to the potential for production of carcinogenic disinfection byproducts (DBPs). The Environmental Flui...

  7. Heartbeat of the Southern Oscillation explains ENSO climatic resonances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruun, John T.; Allen, J. Icarus; Smyth, Timothy J.

    2017-08-01

    records in combination with theoretical models of ENSO. This fundamental result that shows the ENSO phenomenon has a stable tropical Pacific attractor with El Niño and La Niña phases, tropical and extratropical coupling and an intermittency or longer-term form of chaos. We call this attractor the Heartbeat of the Southern Oscillation as the phenomenon is measurable in the Southern Oscillation. We predict future ENSO states based on a stable hysteresis scenario of short-term and long-term ENSO oscillations over the next century.

  8. Assessment of the APCC Coupled MME Suite in Predicting the Distinctive Climate Impacts of Two Flavors of ENSO during Boreal Winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeong, Hye-In; Lee, Doo Young; Karumuri, Ashok; Ahn, Joong-Bae; Lee, June-Yi; Luo, Jing-Jia; Schemm, Jae-Kyung E.; Hendon, Harry H.; Braganza, Karl; Ham, Yoo-Geun

    2012-01-01

    Forecast skill of the APEC Climate Center (APCC) Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) seasonal forecast system in predicting two main types of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), namely canonical (or cold tongue) and Modoki ENSO, and their regional climate impacts is assessed for boreal winter. The APCC MME is constructed by simple composite of ensemble forecasts from five independent coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. Based on a hindcast set targeting boreal winter prediction for the period 19822004, we show that the MME can predict and discern the important differences in the patterns of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly between the canonical and Modoki ENSO one and four month ahead. Importantly, the four month lead MME beats the persistent forecast. The MME reasonably predicts the distinct impacts of the canonical ENSO, including the strong winter monsoon rainfall over East Asia, the below normal rainfall and above normal temperature over Australia, the anomalously wet conditions across the south and cold conditions over the whole area of USA, and the anomalously dry conditions over South America. However, there are some limitations in capturing its regional impacts, especially, over Australasia and tropical South America at a lead time of one and four months. Nonetheless, forecast skills for rainfall and temperature over East Asia and North America during ENSO Modoki are comparable to or slightly higher than those during canonical ENSO events.

  9. What do we need to know to predict ENSO? Student-centered learning in a Master course in Climate Physics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lübbecke, Joke; Glessmer, Mirjam

    2017-04-01

    An important learning outcome of a Master of Sciences program is to empower students to understand which information they need, how they can gain the required knowledge and skills, and how to apply those to solve a given scientific problem. In designing a class on the El-Nino-Southern-Oscillation (ENSO) for students in the Climate Physics program at Kiel University, Germany, we have implemented various active learning strategies to meet this goal. The course is guided by an overarching question, embedded in a short story: What would we need to know to successfully predict ENSO? The students identify desired learning outcomes and collaboratively construct a concept map which then serves as a structure for the 12 weeks of the course, where each individual topic is situated in the larger context of the students' own concept map. Each learning outcome of the course is therefore directly motivated by a need to know expressed by the students themselves. During each session, students are actively involved in the learning process. They work individually or in small groups, for example testing different index definitions, analyzing data sets, setting up simple numerical models and planning and constructing hands-on experiments to demonstrate physical processes involved in the formation of El Niño events. The instructor's role is to provide the necessary background information and guide the students where it is needed. Insights are shared between groups as students present their findings to each other and combine the information, for example by cooperatively constructing a world map displaying the impacts of ENSO or by exchanging experts on different ENSO oscillator theories between groups. Development of this course was supported by the PerLe Fonds for teaching innovations at Kiel University. A preliminary evaluation has been very positive with students in particular appreciating their active involvement in the class.

  10. Sub-seasonal prediction of significant wave heights over the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans, part II: The impact of ENSO and MJO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, Ravi P.; Kinter, James L.; Shin, Chul-Su

    2018-03-01

    This study evaluates the effect of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) events on 14-day mean significant wave height (SWH) at 3 weeks lead time (Wk34) over the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2). The WAVEWATCH-3 (WW3) model is forced with daily 10m-winds predicted by a modified version of CFSv2 that is initialized with multiple ocean analyses in both January and May for 1979-2008. A significant anomaly correlation of predicted and observed SWH anomalies (SWHA) at Wk34 lead-time is found over portions of the domain, including the central western Pacific, South China Sea (SCS), Bay of Bengal (BOB) and southern Indian Ocean (IO) in January cases, and over BOB, equatorial western Pacific, the Maritime Continent and southern IO in May cases. The model successfully predicts almost all the important features of the observed composite SWHA during El Niño events in January, including negative SWHA in the central IO where westerly wind anomalies act on an easterly mean state, and positive SWHA over the southern Ocean (SO) where westerly wind anomalies act on a westerly mean state. The model successfully predicts the sign and magnitude of SWHA at Wk34 lead-time in May over the BOB and SCS in composites of combined phases-2-3 and phases-6-7 of MJO. The observed leading mode of SWHA in May and the third mode of SWHA in January are influenced by the combined effects of ENSO and MJO. Based on spatial and temporal correlations, the spatial patterns of SWHA in the model at Wk34 in both January and May are in good agreement with the observations over the equatorial western Pacific, equatorial and southern IO, and SO.

  11. Influences of the ENSO, oscillation Madden-Julian, waves of the east, hurricanes and moon phases on the diurnal cycle of precipitation at the tropical Andes of Colombia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poveda, German; Mesa, Oscar; Agudelo, Paula; Alvarez, Juan; Arias, Paola; Moreno, Hernan; Salazar, Luis; Toro, Vladimir; Vieira, Sara

    2002-01-01

    We study the effects of large-scale ocean-atmospheric, astronomic phenomena on the diurnal cycle of precipitation at the tropical Andes of Colombia. Such phenomena include both phases of El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), namely El Nino and La Nina, the intra seasonal Madden-Julian oscillation, tropical easterly waves (4-8 days), moon phases and hurricanes over the Atlantic and eastern pacific oceans. We found a clear-cut effect of both ENSO phases: El Nino is associated with a diminished rainfall diurnal cycle, and La Nina intensifies it. Thus, ENSO modulates precipitation in Colombia at timescales ranging from hours to decades. We identified a close association with different phases of the Madden-Julian oscillation, as the diurnal cycle is intensified (larger amplitude) during its westerly phase, but it gets decreased during its easterly phase. For both ENSO and the Madden-Julian oscillation we identified a clear-cut influence on the amplitude of the diurnal cycle, yet the phase is conserved for the most part. Tropical easterly waves appear to affect the diurnal cycle, but no clear overall signal is pervasive throughout the region. We al so found a significant statistical association with hurricanes occurring over the northeastern pacific ocean with the diurnal cycle of precipitation at rain gages located over the eastern slope of the eastern range of the Colombian Andes. Rainfall at all the remaining slopes of the Andes is statistically associated with hurricanes occurring at the tropical north Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea. Moon phases are not statistically associated with the diurnal cycle and daily total rainfall

  12. ENSO-based probabilistic forecasts of March-May U.S. tornado and hail activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lepore, Chiara; Tippett, Michael K.; Allen, John T.

    2017-09-01

    Extended logistic regression is used to predict March-May severe convective storm (SCS) activity based on the preceding December-February (DJF) El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state. The spatially resolved probabilistic forecasts are verified against U.S. tornado counts, hail events, and two environmental indices for severe convection. The cross-validated skill is positive for roughly a quarter of the U.S. Overall, indices are predicted with more skill than are storm reports, and hail events are predicted with more skill than tornado counts. Skill is higher in the cool phase of ENSO (La Niña like) when overall SCS activity is higher. SCS forecasts based on the predicted DJF ENSO state from coupled dynamical models initialized in October of the previous year extend the lead time with only a modest reduction in skill compared to forecasts based on the observed DJF ENSO state.

  13. ENSO, IOD and Indian Summer Monsoon in NCEP climate forecast system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pokhrel, Samir; Chaudhari, H.S.; Saha, Subodh K.; Dhakate, Ashish; Yadav, R.K.; Salunke, Kiran; Mahapatra, S.; Rao, Suryachandra A. [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pashan, Pune (India)

    2012-11-15

    El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall features are explored statistically and dynamically using National Centers for Environment Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFSv1) freerun in relation to observations. The 100 years of freerun provides a sufficiently long homogeneous data set to find out the mean state, periodicity, coherence among these climatic events and also the influence of ENSO and IOD on the Indian monsoon. Differences in the occurrence of seasonal precipitation between the observations and CFS freerun are examined as a coupled ocean-atmosphere system. CFS simulated ENSO and IOD patterns and their associated tropical Walker and regional Hadley circulation in pure ENSO (PEN), pure IOD (PIO) and coexisting ENSO-IOD (PEI) events have some similarity to the observations. PEN composites are much closer to the observation as compared to PIO and PEI composites, which suggest a better ENSO prediction and its associated teleconnections as compared to IOD and combined phenomenon. Similar to the observation, the model simulation also show that the decrease in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall during ENSO phases is associated with a descending motion of anomalous Walker circulation and the increase in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall during IOD phase is associated with the ascending branch of anomalous regional Hadley circulation. During co-existing ENSO and IOD years, however, the fate of Indian summer monsoon is dictated by the combined influence of both of them. The shift in the anomalous descending and ascending branches of the Walker and Hadley circulation may be somewhat attributed to the cold (warm) bias over eastern (western) equatorial Indian Ocean basin, respectively in the model. This study will be useful for identifying some of the limitations of the CFS model and consequently it will be helpful in improving the model to unravel the realistic coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions

  14. Initial conditions and ENSO prediction using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larow, T. E.; Krishnamurti, T. N.

    1998-01-01

    A coupled ocean-atmosphere initialization scheme using Newtonian relaxation has been developed for the Florida State University coupled ocean-atmosphere global general circulation model. The initialization scheme is used to initialize the coupled model for seasonal forecasting the boreal summers of 1987 and 1988. The atmosphere model is a modified version of the Florida State University global spectral model, resolution T-42. The ocean general circulation model consists of a slightly modified version of the Hamburg's climate group model described in Latif (1987) and Latif et al. (1993). The coupling is synchronous with information exchanged every two model hours. Using ECMWF atmospheric daily analysis and observed monthly mean SSTs, two, 1-year, time-dependent, Newtonian relaxation were performed using the coupled model prior to conducting the seasonal forecasts. The coupled initializations were conducted from 1 June 1986 to 1 June 1987 and from 1 June 1987 to 1 June 1988. Newtonian relaxation was applied to the prognostic atmospheric vorticity, divergence, temperature and dew point depression equations. In the ocean model the relaxation was applied to the surface temperature. Two, 10-member ensemble integrations were conducted to examine the impact of the coupled initialization on the seasonal forecasts. The initial conditions used for the ensembles are the ocean's final state after the initialization and the atmospheric initial conditions are ECMWF analysis. Examination of the SST root mean square error and anomaly correlations between observed and forecasted SSTs in the Niño-3 and Niño-4 regions for the 2 seasonal forecasts, show closer agreement between the initialized forecast than two, 10-member non-initialized ensemble forecasts. The main conclusion here is that a single forecast with the coupled initialization outperforms, in SST anomaly prediction, against each of the control forecasts (members of the ensemble) which do not include such an initialization

  15. Inter-decadal modulation of ENSO teleconnections to the Indian Ocean in a coupled model: Special emphasis on decay phase of El Niño

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowdary, J. S.; Parekh, Anant; Gnanaseelan, C.; Sreenivas, P.

    2014-01-01

    Inter-decadal modulation of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections to tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) is investigated in the coupled general circulation model Climate Forecast System (CFS) using a hundred year integration. The model is able to capture the periodicity of El Niño variability, which is similar to that of the observations. The maximum TIO/north Indian Ocean (NIO) SST warming (during spring following the decay phase of El Niño) associated with El Niño is well captured by the model. Detailed analysis reveals that the surface heat flux variations mainly contribute to the El Niño forced TIO SST variations both in observations and model. However, spring warming is nearly stationary throughout the model integration period, indicating poor inter-decadal El Niño teleconnections. The observations on the other hand displayed maximum SST warming with strong seasonality from epoch to epoch. The model El Niño decay delayed by more than two seasons, results in persistent TIO/NIO SST warming through the following December unlike in the observations. The ocean wave adjustments and persistent westerly wind anomalies over the equatorial Pacific are responsible for late decay of El Niño in the model. Consistent late decay of El Niño, throughout the model integration period (low variance), is mainly responsible for the poor inter-decadal ENSO teleconnections to TIO/NIO. This study deciphers that the model needs to produce El Niño decay phase variability correctly to obtain decadal-modulations in ENSO teleconnection.

  16. Verification of an ENSO-Based Long-Range Prediction of Anomalous Weather Conditions During the Vancouver 2010 Olympics and Paralympics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mo, Ruping; Joe, Paul I.; Doyle, Chris; Whitfield, Paul H.

    2014-01-01

    A brief review of the anomalous weather conditions during the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games and the efforts to predict these anomalies based on some preceding El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signals are presented. It is shown that the Olympic Games were held under extraordinarily warm conditions in February 2010, with monthly mean temperature anomalies of +2.2 °C in Vancouver and +2.8 °C in Whistler, ranking respectively as the highest and the second highest in the past 30 years (1981-2010). The warm conditions continued, but became less anomalous, in March 2010 for the Paralympic Games. While the precipitation amounts in the area remained near normal through this winter, the lack of snow due to warm conditions created numerous media headlines and practical problems for the alpine competitions. A statistical model was developed on the premise that February and March temperatures in the Vancouver area could be predicted using an ENSO signal with considerable lead time. This model successfully predicted the warmer-than-normal, lower-snowfall conditions for the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics and Paralympics.

  17. The nonstationary impact of local temperature changes and ENSO on extreme precipitation at the global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Qiaohong; Miao, Chiyuan; Qiao, Yuanyuan; Duan, Qingyun

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and local temperature are important drivers of extreme precipitation. Understanding the impact of ENSO and temperature on the risk of extreme precipitation over global land will provide a foundation for risk assessment and climate-adaptive design of infrastructure in a changing climate. In this study, nonstationary generalized extreme value distributions were used to model extreme precipitation over global land for the period 1979-2015, with ENSO indicator and temperature as covariates. Risk factors were estimated to quantify the contrast between the influence of different ENSO phases and temperature. The results show that extreme precipitation is dominated by ENSO over 22% of global land and by temperature over 26% of global land. With a warming climate, the risk of high-intensity daily extreme precipitation increases at high latitudes but decreases in tropical regions. For ENSO, large parts of North America, southern South America, and southeastern and northeastern China are shown to suffer greater risk in El Niño years, with more than double the chance of intense extreme precipitation in El Niño years compared with La Niña years. Moreover, regions with more intense precipitation are more sensitive to ENSO. Global climate models were used to investigate the changing relationship between extreme precipitation and the covariates. The risk of extreme, high-intensity precipitation increases across high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere but decreases in middle and lower latitudes under a warming climate scenario, and will likely trigger increases in severe flooding and droughts across the globe. However, there is some uncertainties associated with the influence of ENSO on predictions of future extreme precipitation, with the spatial extent and risk varying among the different models.

  18. ENSO impacts on flood risk at the global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Philip; Dettinger, Michael; Jongman, Brenden; Kummu, Matti; Winsemius, Hessel

    2014-05-01

    We present the impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on society and the economy, via relationships between ENSO and the hydrological cycle. We also discuss ways in which this knowledge can be used in disaster risk management and risk reduction. This contribution provides the most recent results of an ongoing 4-year collaborative research initiative to assess and map the impacts of large scale interannual climate variability on flood hazard and risk at the global scale. We have examined anomalies in flood risk between ENSO phases, whereby flood risk is expressed in terms of indicators such as: annual expected damage; annual expected affected population; annual expected affected Gross Domestic Product (GDP). We show that large anomalies in flood risk occur during El Niño or La Niña years in basins covering large parts of the Earth's surface. These anomalies reach statistical significance river basins covering almost two-thirds of the Earth's surface. Particularly strong anomalies exist in southern Africa, parts of western Africa, Australia, parts of Central Eurasia (especially for El Niño), the western USA (especially La Niña anomalies), and parts of South America. We relate these anomalies to possible causal relationships between ENSO and flood hazard, using both modelled and observed data on flood occurrence and extremity. The implications for flood risk management are many-fold. In those regions where disaster risk is strongly influenced by ENSO, the potential predictably of ENSO could be used to develop probabilistic flood risk projections with lead times up to several seasons. Such data could be used by the insurance industry in managing risk portfolios and by multinational companies for assessing the robustness of their supply chains to potential flood-related interruptions. Seasonal forecasts of ENSO influence of peak flows could also allow for improved flood early warning and regulation by dam operators, which could also reduce overall risks

  19. Where was ENSO strongest?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cane, M. A.; Chen, D.; Kaplan, A.

    2008-12-01

    Mark A. Cane, Dake Chen, Alexey Kaplan The description of this session begins: "Historical SST records suggest that for the past three decades, ENSO has been anomalously strong" and goes on to ask why. In this talk we dispute this interpretation of the historical record from within the historical record. In particular, we suggest that the most "anomalously strong" period in the historical ENSO record is the late nineteenth century. This claim requires a discussion of how we measure "ENSO strength". We also speculate on possible reasons for the strength of ENSO in this earlier period. Finally, we consult the models, and in reiteration of the collective conclusion of all speakers at this session, find that the riddles the models provide are inelegant and disobliging, lacking the cryptic wisdom of the classical oracles.

  20. Reforecasting the ENSO Events in the Past Fifty-Seven Years (1958-2014)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, B.; Shin, C. S.; Shukla, J.; Marx, L.; Balmaseda, M.; Halder, S.; Dirmeyer, P.; Kinter, J. L.

    2016-12-01

    A set of ensemble seasonal reforecasts for 1958-2014 is conducted using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), initialized with observation-based ocean, atmosphere, land and sea ice reanalyses, including the Eu­ropean Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global ocean reanalysis version 4, the ERA-40 atmospheric reanalysis, the NCEP CFS Reanalysis for atmosphere, land and sea ice, and the NASA Global Land Data Assimilation System reanalysis version 2.0 for land. The purpose is to examine a long and continuous seasonal reforecast dataset from a modern seasonal forecast system to be used by the research community. In comparison with other current reforecasts, this dataset allows us to evaluate the degree to which El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events can be predicted, using a larger sample of events. Furthermore, we can directly compare the predictability of the ENSO events in 1960s-70s with the more widely studied ENSO events occurring since the 1980s to examine the state-of-the-art seasonal forecast system's capability at different phases of global climate change and multidecadal variability. A major concern is whether the seasonal reforecasts before 1979 have useful skill when there were fewer ocean observations. Our preliminary examination of the reforecasts shows that, although the reforecasts have lower skill in predicting the SST anomalies in the North Pacific and North Atlantic before 1979, the prediction skill of the ENSO onset and development for 1958-1978 is comparable to that for 1979-2014. The skill of the earlier predictions declines faster in the ENSO decaying phase because the reforecasts initialized after the summer season persistently predict lingering wind and SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific during the decaying phase of several major ENSO events in the 1960s-70s. Since the 1980s, the reforecasts initialized in fall overestimate the peak SST

  1. Prediction of Chevrel superconducting phases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Savitskij, E.M.; Kiseleva, N.N.

    1978-01-01

    Made is an attempt of predicting the possibility of formation of compounds of Mo 3 Se 4 type structure having critical temperatures of transition into superconducting state more than 4.2 K. Cybernetic method of teaching an electronic computer to form notions is used for prediction. Prediction system constructs logic dependence of forming Chevrel superconducting phase of the Asub(x)Bsub(6)Ssub(8) composition (A being an element of the periodic system; B=Cr, Mo, W, Re) and Asub(x)Bsub(6)Ssub(8) compounds having a critical temperature of more than 4.2 K on the properties of A and B elements. A conclusion is made that W, Re, Cr do not form Chevrel phases of the Asub(x)Bsub(6)Ssub(8) composition as B component. Be, Hg, Ra, B, Ac are the reserve for obtaining Asub(x)Mosub(6)Ssub(8) phases. Agsub(x)Mosub(6)Ssub(8) compound may have a high critical temperature. The ways of a critical temperature increase for Chevrel phases are connected with the search of optimal technological conditions for already known superconducting compounds and also with introduction of impurities fixing a distance between sulfur cubes

  2. An ENSO beginning in the year 2000?

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gopinathan, C.K.

    Several models have been developed over the last few decades to predict the advent of new ENSO events several months in advance of the actual event. None of the models have predicted a warm event beginning by the year 2000. Positive SST anomalies...

  3. Multiphase, multicomponent phase behavior prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dadmohammadi, Younas

    Accurate prediction of phase behavior of fluid mixtures in the chemical industry is essential for designing and operating a multitude of processes. Reliable generalized predictions of phase equilibrium properties, such as pressure, temperature, and phase compositions offer an attractive alternative to costly and time consuming experimental measurements. The main purpose of this work was to assess the efficacy of recently generalized activity coefficient models based on binary experimental data to (a) predict binary and ternary vapor-liquid equilibrium systems, and (b) characterize liquid-liquid equilibrium systems. These studies were completed using a diverse binary VLE database consisting of 916 binary and 86 ternary systems involving 140 compounds belonging to 31 chemical classes. Specifically the following tasks were undertaken: First, a comprehensive assessment of the two common approaches (gamma-phi (gamma-ϕ) and phi-phi (ϕ-ϕ)) used for determining the phase behavior of vapor-liquid equilibrium systems is presented. Both the representation and predictive capabilities of these two approaches were examined, as delineated form internal and external consistency tests of 916 binary systems. For the purpose, the universal quasi-chemical (UNIQUAC) model and the Peng-Robinson (PR) equation of state (EOS) were used in this assessment. Second, the efficacy of recently developed generalized UNIQUAC and the nonrandom two-liquid (NRTL) for predicting multicomponent VLE systems were investigated. Third, the abilities of recently modified NRTL model (mNRTL2 and mNRTL1) to characterize liquid-liquid equilibria (LLE) phase conditions and attributes, including phase stability, miscibility, and consolute point coordinates, were assessed. The results of this work indicate that the ϕ-ϕ approach represents the binary VLE systems considered within three times the error of the gamma-ϕ approach. A similar trend was observed for the for the generalized model predictions using

  4. ENSO Atmospheric Teleconnections and Their Response to Greenhouse Gas Forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeh, Sang-Wook; Cai, Wenju; Min, Seung-Ki; McPhaden, Michael J.; Dommenget, Dietmar; Dewitte, Boris; Collins, Matthew; Ashok, Karumuri; An, Soon-Il; Yim, Bo-Young; Kug, Jong-Seong

    2018-03-01

    El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most prominent year-to-year climate fluctuation on Earth, alternating between anomalously warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) sea surface temperature (SST) conditions in the tropical Pacific. ENSO exerts its impacts on remote regions of the globe through atmospheric teleconnections, affecting extreme weather events worldwide. However, these teleconnections are inherently nonlinear and sensitive to ENSO SST anomaly patterns and amplitudes. In addition, teleconnections are modulated by variability in the oceanic and atmopsheric mean state outside the tropics and by land and sea ice extent. The character of ENSO as well as the ocean mean state have changed since the 1990s, which might be due to either natural variability or anthropogenic forcing, or their combined influences. This has resulted in changes in ENSO atmospheric teleconnections in terms of precipitation and temperature in various parts of the globe. In addition, changes in ENSO teleconnection patterns have affected their predictability and the statistics of extreme events. However, the short observational record does not allow us to clearly distinguish which changes are robust and which are not. Climate models suggest that ENSO teleconnections will change because the mean atmospheric circulation will change due to anthropogenic forcing in the 21st century, which is independent of whether ENSO properties change or not. However, future ENSO teleconnection changes do not currently show strong intermodel agreement from region to region, highlighting the importance of identifying factors that affect uncertainty in future model projections.

  5. The Relationship between El nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Phenomenon and Seasonal Precipitation Variability in Eastern Kenya with Special Reference to Katumani: Its Implication to Crop Production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kitheka, S.K

    1999-01-01

    Climatic variability has been defined as a major limitation to agricultural production in semi arid Kenya. The major difficulty to both farmers and research community, has been the inability to to predict seasonal rainfall prior to the season onset. Although several researches have attempted and made advances in predicting rainfall amount, solutions to the problem have not been achieved. This study has examined and related rainfall at Katumani with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Rainfall variations during different phases of ENSO were established. Some advances in the early prediction of March-May and October -January rains for, both, the warm and cold phases of ENSO have been made. Crop production is closely related to the rainfall and therefore a need for revision of agronomic recommendation to tie them with rainfall variation

  6. Decadal modulation of the ENSO-East Asian winter monsoon relationship by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geng, Xin; Zhang, Wenjun; Stuecker, Malte F.; Liu, Peng; Jin, Fei-Fei; Tan, Guirong

    2017-10-01

    This work investigates the decadal modulation of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) relationship by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). A stable ENSO-EAWM relationship is found during the positive AMO phase but not during the negative phase. While the impact of El Niño events on the EAWM does not depend on the AMO phase, a different picture is observed for La Niña events. The La Niña boreal winter season coincides with a strengthened EAWM during a positive AMO phase and a weakened EAWM during a negative AMO phase. We suggest that the AMO's modulating effect mainly comprises two pathways that influence ENSO's impact on the EAWM. On one hand, when La Niña coincides with a positive AMO, the warm SST anomalies over the western North Pacific (WNP) are amplified both in intensity and spatial extent, which favors strengthened WNP cyclonic anomalies and an enhanced EAWM. During La Niña with a negative AMO, only very weak SST anomalies occur over the WNP with reduced WNP cyclonic anomalies that are confined to the tropics, thus having little effect on the EAWM. On the other hand, an eastward-propagating Rossby wavetrain across the mid-high latitudes of Eurasia during a warm AMO phase strengthens the Siberian high and thus leads to a strengthened EAWM, while during a cold AMO phase the Siberian high is weakened, leading to a reduced EAWM. In contrast, El Niño and its associated atmospheric responses are relatively strong and stable, independent of the AMO phase. These results carry important implications to the seasonal-to-interannual predictability associated with ENSO.

  7. Linkages between ENSO/PDO signals and precipitation, streamflow in China during the last 100 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouyang, R.; Liu, W.; Fu, G.; Liu, C.; Hu, L.; Wang, H.

    2014-09-01

    This paper investigates the single and combined impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on precipitation and streamflow in China over the last century. Results indicate that the precipitation and streamflow overall decrease during El Niño/PDO warm phase periods and increase during La Niña/PDO cool phase periods in the majority of China, although there are regional and seasonal differences. Precipitation and streamflow in the Yellow River basin, Yangtze River basin and Pearl River basin are more significantly influenced by El Niño and La Niña events than is precipitation and streamflow in the Songhua River basin, especially in October and November. Moreover, significant influence of ENSO on streamflow in the Yangtze River mainly occurs in summer and autumn while in the Pearl River influence primarily occurs in the winter and spring. The precipitation and streamflow are relatively greater in the warm PDO phase in the Songhua River basin and several parts of the Yellow River basin and relatively less in the Pearl River basin and most parts of Northwest China compared to those in the cool PDO phase, though there is little significance detected by Wilcoxon signed-rank test. When considering the combined influence of ENSO and PDO, the responses of precipitation/streamflow are shown to be opposite in northern China and southern China, with ENSO-related precipitation/streamflow enhanced in northern China and decreased in southern China during the warm PDO phases, and enhanced in southern China and decreased in northern China during the cool PDO phases. It is hoped that this study will be beneficial for understanding the precipitation/streamflow responses to the changing climate and will correspondingly provide valuable reference for water resources prediction and management across China.

  8. Climate Prediction Center - ENSO FAQ

    Science.gov (United States)

    data buoys used to monitor ocean temperatures? What is climate variability? A prominent aspect of our Niño or La Niña? During an El Niño or La Niña, the changes in Pacific Ocean temperatures affect Pacific. Changes in the ocean surface temperatures affect tropical rainfall patterns and atmospheric winds

  9. Inter-decadal change in potential predictability of the East Asian summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jiao; Ding, Ruiqiang; Wu, Zhiwei; Zhong, Quanjia; Li, Baosheng; Li, Jianping

    2018-05-01

    The significant inter-decadal change in potential predictability of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) has been investigated using the signal-to-noise ratio method. The relatively low potential predictability appears from the early 1950s through the late 1970s and during the early 2000s, whereas the potential predictability is relatively high from the early 1980s through the late 1990s. The inter-decadal change in potential predictability of the EASM can be attributed mainly to variations in the external signal of the EASM. The latter is mostly caused by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) inter-decadal variability. As a major external signal of the EASM, the ENSO inter-decadal variability experiences phase transitions from negative to positive phases in the late 1970s, and to negative phases in the late 1990s. Additionally, ENSO is generally strong (weak) during a positive (negative) phase of the ENSO inter-decadal variability. The strong ENSO is expected to have a greater influence on the EASM, and vice versa. As a result, the potential predictability of the EASM tends to be high (low) during a positive (negative) phase of the ENSO inter-decadal variability. Furthermore, a suite of Pacific Pacemaker experiments suggests that the ENSO inter-decadal variability may be a key pacemaker of the inter-decadal change in potential predictability of the EASM.

  10. The complex influence of ENSO on droughts in Ecuador

    KAUST Repository

    Vicente-Serrano, S. M.

    2016-03-26

    In this study, we analyzed the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the spatio-temporal variability of droughts in Ecuador for a 48-year period (1965–2012). Droughts were quantified from 22 high-quality and homogenized time series of precipitation and air temperature by means of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. In addition, the propagation of two different ENSO indices (El Niño 3.4 and El Niño 1 + 2 indices) and other atmospheric circulation processes (e.g., vertical velocity) on different time-scales of drought severity were investigated. The results showed a very complex influence of ENSO on drought behavior across Ecuador, with two regional patterns in the evolution of droughts: (1) the Andean chain with no changes in drought severity, and (2) the Western plains with less severe and frequent droughts. We also detected that drought variability in the Andes mountains is explained by the El Niño 3.4 index [sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central Pacific], whereas the Western plains are much more driven by El Niño 1 + 2 index (SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific). Moreover, it was also observed that El Niño and La Niña phases enhance droughts in the Andes and Western plains regions, respectively. The results of this work could be crucial for predicting and monitoring drought variability and intensity in Ecuador. © 2016 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

  11. ENSO Diversity Changes Due To Global Warming In CESM-LE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carreric, A.; Dewitte, B.; Guemas, V.

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is predicted to be modified due to global warming based on the CMIP3 and CMIP5 data bases. In particular the frequency of occurrence of extreme Eastern Pacific El Niño events is to double in the future in response to the increase in green-house gazes. Such forecast relies however on state-of-the-art models that still present mean state biases and do not simulate realistically key features of El Niño events such as its diversity which is related to the existence of at least two types of El Niño events, the Eastern Pacific (EP) El Nino and the Central Pacific (CP) El Niño events. Here we take advantage of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble (LE) that provides 35 realizations of the climate of the 1920-2100 period with a combination of both natural and anthropogenic climate forcing factors, to explore on the one hand methods to detect changes in ENSO statistics and on the other hand to investigate changes in thermodynamical processes associated to the increase oceanic stratification owed to global warming. The CESM simulates realistically many aspects of the ENSO diversity, in particular the non-linear evolution of the phase space of the first two EOF modes of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific. Based on indices accounting for the two ENSO regimes used in the literature, we show that, although there is no statistically significant (i.e. confidence level > 95%) changes in the occurrence of El Niño types from the present to the future climate, the estimate of the changes is sensitive to the definition of ENSO indices that is used. CESM simulates in particular an increase occurrence of extreme El Niño events that can vary by 28% from one method to the other. It is shown that the seasonal evolution of EP El Niño events is modified from the present to the future climate, with in particular a larger occurrence of events taking place in Austral summer in the warmer climate

  12. Study of the global and regional climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude using SPEEDY AGCM

    KAUST Repository

    Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar; Kucharski, Fred; Azharuddin, Syed

    2017-01-01

    ENSO is considered as a strong atmospheric teleconnection that has pronounced global and regional circulation effects. It modifies global monsoon system, especially, Asian and African monsoons. Previous studies suggest that both the frequency and magnitude of ENSO events have increased over the last few decades resulting in a need to study climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude both at global and regional scales. Hence, to better understand the impact of ENSO amplitude over the tropical and extratropical regions focussing on the Asian and African domains, ENSO sensitivity experiments are conducted using ICTPAGCM (‘SPEEDY’). It is anticipated that the tropical Pacific SST forcing will be enough to produce ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns; therefore, the model is forced using NINO3.4 regressed SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific only. SPEEDY reproduces the impact of ENSO over the Pacific, North and South America and African regions very well. However, it underestimates ENSO teleconnection patterns and associated changes over South Asia, particularly in the Indian region, which suggests that the tropical Pacific SST forcing is not sufficient to represent ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns over South Asia. Therefore, SST forcing over the tropical Indian Ocean together with air–sea coupling is also required for better representation of ENSO-induced changes in these regions. Moreover, results obtained by this pacemaker experiment show that ENSO impacts are relatively stronger over the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) compared to extratropics and high latitude regions. The positive phase of ENSO causes weakening in rainfall activity over African tropical rain belt, parts of South and Southeast Asia, whereas, the La Niña phase produces more rain over these regions during the summer season. Model results further reveal that ENSO magnitude has a stronger impact over African Sahel and South Asia, especially over the Indian region because of its significant

  13. Study of the global and regional climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude using SPEEDY AGCM

    KAUST Repository

    Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar

    2017-03-09

    ENSO is considered as a strong atmospheric teleconnection that has pronounced global and regional circulation effects. It modifies global monsoon system, especially, Asian and African monsoons. Previous studies suggest that both the frequency and magnitude of ENSO events have increased over the last few decades resulting in a need to study climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude both at global and regional scales. Hence, to better understand the impact of ENSO amplitude over the tropical and extratropical regions focussing on the Asian and African domains, ENSO sensitivity experiments are conducted using ICTPAGCM (‘SPEEDY’). It is anticipated that the tropical Pacific SST forcing will be enough to produce ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns; therefore, the model is forced using NINO3.4 regressed SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific only. SPEEDY reproduces the impact of ENSO over the Pacific, North and South America and African regions very well. However, it underestimates ENSO teleconnection patterns and associated changes over South Asia, particularly in the Indian region, which suggests that the tropical Pacific SST forcing is not sufficient to represent ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns over South Asia. Therefore, SST forcing over the tropical Indian Ocean together with air–sea coupling is also required for better representation of ENSO-induced changes in these regions. Moreover, results obtained by this pacemaker experiment show that ENSO impacts are relatively stronger over the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) compared to extratropics and high latitude regions. The positive phase of ENSO causes weakening in rainfall activity over African tropical rain belt, parts of South and Southeast Asia, whereas, the La Niña phase produces more rain over these regions during the summer season. Model results further reveal that ENSO magnitude has a stronger impact over African Sahel and South Asia, especially over the Indian region because of its significant

  14. Interdecadal variations of ENSO around 1999/2000

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Kumar, Arun; Huang, Bohua; Zhu, Jieshun; Ren, Hong-Li

    2017-02-01

    This paper discusses the interdecadal changes of the climate in the tropical Pacific with a focus on the corresponding changes in the characteristics of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Compared with 1979-1999, the whole tropical Pacific climate system, including both the ocean and atmosphere, shifted to a lower variability regime after 1999/2000. Meanwhile, the frequency of ENSO became less regular and was closer to a white noise process. The lead time of the equatorial Pacific's subsurface ocean heat content in preceding ENSO decreased remarkably, in addition to a reduction in the maximum correlation between them. The weakening of the correlation and the shortening of the lead time pose more challenges for ENSO prediction, and is the likely reason behind the decrease in skill with respect to ENSO prediction after 2000. Coincident with the changes in tropical Pacific climate variability, the mean states of the atmospheric and oceanic components also experienced physically coherent changes. The warm anomaly of SST in the western Pacific and cold anomaly in the eastern Pacific resulted in an increased zonal SST gradient, linked to an enhancement in surface wind stress and strengthening of the Walker circulation, as well as an increase in the slope of the thermocline. These changes were consistent with an increase (a decrease) in precipitation and an enhancement (a suppression) of the deep convection in the western (eastern) equatorial Pacific. Possible connections between the mean state and ENSO variability and frequency changes in the tropical Pacific are also discussed.

  15. Predictability of Seasonal Rainfall over the Greater Horn of Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngaina, J. N.

    2016-12-01

    The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a primary mode of climate variability in the Greater of Africa (GHA). The expected impacts of climate variability and change on water, agriculture, and food resources in GHA underscore the importance of reliable and accurate seasonal climate predictions. The study evaluated different model selection criteria which included the Coefficient of determination (R2), Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), and the Fisher information approximation (FIA). A forecast scheme based on the optimal model was developed to predict the October-November-December (OND) and March-April-May (MAM) rainfall. The predictability of GHA rainfall based on ENSO was quantified based on composite analysis, correlations and contingency tables. A test for field-significance considering the properties of finiteness and interdependence of the spatial grid was applied to avoid correlations by chance. The study identified FIA as the optimal model selection criterion. However, complex model selection criteria (FIA followed by BIC) performed better compared to simple approach (R2 and AIC). Notably, operational seasonal rainfall predictions over the GHA makes of simple model selection procedures e.g. R2. Rainfall is modestly predictable based on ENSO during OND and MAM seasons. El Nino typically leads to wetter conditions during OND and drier conditions during MAM. The correlations of ENSO indices with rainfall are statistically significant for OND and MAM seasons. Analysis based on contingency tables shows higher predictability of OND rainfall with the use of ENSO indices derived from the Pacific and Indian Oceans sea surfaces showing significant improvement during OND season. The predictability based on ENSO for OND rainfall is robust on a decadal scale compared to MAM. An ENSO-based scheme based on an optimal model selection criterion can thus provide skillful rainfall predictions over GHA. This study concludes that the

  16. ENSO Related Interannual Lightning Variability from the Full TRMM LIS Lightning Climatology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Austin; Cecil, Daniel J.

    2018-01-01

    It has been shown that the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) contributes to inter-annual variability of lightning production in the tropics and subtropics more than any other atmospheric oscillation. This study further investigated how ENSO phase affects lightning production in the tropics and subtropics. Using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) for ENSO phase, lightning data were averaged into corresponding mean annual warm, cold, and neutral 'years' for analysis of the different phases. An examination of the regional sensitivities and preliminary analysis of three locations was conducted using model reanalysis data to determine the leading convective mechanisms in these areas and how they might respond to the ENSO phases. These processes were then studied for inter-annual variance and subsequent correlation to ENSO during the study period to best describe the observed lightning deviations from year to year at each location.

  17. ENSO variations and drought occurrence in Indonesia and the Philippines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harger, J. R. E.

    The "El Nino-Southern Oscillation" (ENSO) consists of a sympathetic movement involving the Pacific ocean and associated atmosphere in an essentially chaotic manner along the equator. The system oscillates between extremes of the so-called "warm events" usually lasting 1 or 2 yr and involving movement of warm sea water from the western Pacific along the equator to impact on the west coast of the American continent and "cold events" associated with easterly trade-wind-induced flows of colder water from the eastern Pacific towards the west. Information drawn from meteorological records in southeast Asia clearly indicates that each event is unique in terms of the signature which it imposes on the rainfall and temperature from location to location. Nevertheless, a strong underlying pattern within the context of each event, itself apparently initiated or molded by the character of the preceding years, can be detected. This pattern permits relatively circumscribed predictions of forward conditions (drought intensity) for 2-3 yr, to be made once the event "locks in" for the duration of the warm event and at least 1 yr beyond. The character of the intervening non-ENSO years can also be projected but in a more tenuous, though fairly regular manner. When the non-ENSO years leading up to a warm event are scored in terms of the extent to which they depart from the secular warming trend for the warmest month using data from Jakarta and Semarang on the north coast of Java, the cumulative temperature deviations signal the character of the upcoming ENSO event. This signal does not, however, allow an exact determination to be made with respect to whether or not an ENSO event will occur in the next year. For the available historical instrumental data, all markedly upward-moving traces eventually delivered a hot dry season in east Indonesia. This sort of tendency within non-ENSO blocks can thus serve as a caution in the sense that a very hot ENSO event is likely in the offing. The

  18. Analytical Formulation of Equatorial Standing Wave Phenomena: Application to QBO and ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pukite, P. R.

    2016-12-01

    Key equatorial climate phenomena such as QBO and ENSO have never been adequately explained as deterministic processes. This in spite of recent research showing growing evidence of predictable behavior. This study applies the fundamental Laplace tidal equations with simplifying assumptions along the equator — i.e. no Coriolis force and a small angle approximation. To connect the analytical Sturm-Liouville results to observations, a first-order forcing consistent with a seasonally aliased Draconic or nodal lunar period (27.21d aliased into 2.36y) is applied. This has a plausible rationale as it ties a latitudinal forcing cycle via a cross-product to the longitudinal terms in the Laplace formulation. The fitted results match the features of QBO both qualitatively and quantitatively; adding second-order terms due to other seasonally aliased lunar periods provides finer detail while remaining consistent with the physical model. Further, running symbolic regression machine learning experiments on the data provided a validation to the approach, as it discovered the same analytical form and fitted values as the first principles Laplace model. These results conflict with Lindzen's QBO model, in that his original formulation fell short of making the lunar connection, even though Lindzen himself asserted "it is unlikely that lunar periods could be produced by anything other than the lunar tidal potential".By applying a similar analytical approach to ENSO, we find that the tidal equations need to be replaced with a Mathieu-equation formulation consistent with describing a sloshing process in the thermocline depth. Adapting the hydrodynamic math of sloshing, we find a biennial modulation coupled with angular momentum forcing variations matching the Chandler wobble gives an impressive match over the measured ENSO range of 1880 until the present. Lunar tidal periods and an additional triaxial nutation of 14 year period provide additional fidelity. The caveat is a phase

  19. ENSO Related Inter-Annual Lightning Variability from the Full TRMM LIS Lightning Climatology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Austin; Cecil, Daniel

    2018-01-01

    The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) contributes to inter-annual variability of lightning production more than any other atmospheric oscillation. This study further investigated how ENSO phase affects lightning production in the tropics and subtropics using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS). Lightning data were averaged into mean annual warm, cold, and neutral 'years' for analysis of the different phases and compared to model reanalysis data. An examination of the regional sensitivities and preliminary analysis of three locations was conducted using model reanalysis data to determine the leading convective mechanisms in these areas and how they might respond to the ENSO phases

  20. Interhemispheric temperature difference as a predictor of boreal winter ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piskozub, Jacek; Gutowska, Dorota

    2013-04-01

    winter ENSO variability. In, fact, we did not expect a high value for a phenomenon which is a self-regulated ocean-atmosphere oscillation with timing partly triggered by stochastic atmospheric forcing, especially as we predict ENSO with (semi)global parameters. It is possible that further research may identify smaller regions of both hemispheres which temperature differences explain a larger part of ENSO variability. However in our opinion, the importance of this result is that it may not only improve ENSO prediction but also help in better understanding of ENSO variability in different time scales.

  1. Role of tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans variability on ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prodhomme, Chloé; Terray, Pascal; Masson, Sebastien; Boschat, Ghyslaine

    2014-05-01

    There are strong evidences of an interaction between tropical Indian, Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Nevertheless, these interactions remain deeply controversial. While some authors claim the tropical Indian and Atlantic oceans only play a passive role with respect to ENSO, others suggest a driving role for these two basins on ENSO. The mecanisms underlying these relations are not fully understood and, in the Indian Ocean, the possible role of both modes of tropical variability (the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the Indian Ocean Basin mode (IOB)) remain unclear. To better quantify and understand how the variability of the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans impact ENSO variability, we performed two sensitivity experiments using the SINTEX-F2 coupled model. For each experiment, we suppressed the variability of SST and the air-sea coupling in either the tropical Indian Ocean or tropical Atlantic Ocean by applying a strong nudging of the SST to the observed SST climatology. In both experiments, the ENSO periodicity increases. In the Atlantic experiment, our understanding of this increased periodicity is drastically limited by the strongly biased mean state in this region. Conversely, in the Indian Ocean experiment, the increase of ENSO periodicity is related to the absence of the IOB following the El Niño peak, which leads to a decrease of westerly winds in the western Pacific during late winter and spring after the peak. These weaker westerlies hinders the transition to a La Niña phase and thus increase the duration and periodicity of the event.

  2. Changes in Sea Salt Emissions Enhance ENSO Variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Yang; Russell, Lynn M.; Lou, Sijia; Lamjiri, Maryam A.; Liu, Ying; Singh, Balwinder; Ghan, Steven J.

    2016-11-15

    Two 150-year pre-industrial simulations with and without interactive sea salt emissions from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) are performed to quantify the interactions between sea salt emissions and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Variations in sea salt emissions over the tropical Pacific Ocean are affected by changing wind speed associated with ENSO variability. ENSO-induced interannual variations in sea salt emissions result in decreasing (increasing) aerosol optical depth (AOD) by 0.03 over the equatorial central-eastern (western) Pacific Ocean during El Niño events compared to those during La Niña events. These changes in AOD further increase (decrease) radiative fluxes into the atmosphere by +0.2 W m-2 (-0.4 W m-2) over the tropical eastern (western) Pacific. Thereby, sea surface temperature increases (decreases) by 0.2–0.4 K over the tropical eastern (western) Pacific Ocean during El Niño compared to La Niña events and enhances ENSO variability by 10%. The increase in ENSO amplitude is a result of systematic heating (cooling) during the warm (cold) phase, of ENSO in the eastern Pacific. Interannual variations in sea salt emissions then produce the anomalous ascent (subsidence) over the equatorial eastern (western) Pacific between El Niño and La Niña events, which is a result of heating anomalies. Due to variations in sea salt emissions, the convective precipitation is enhanced by 0.6–1.2 mm day-1 over the tropical central-eastern Pacific Ocean and weakened by 0.9–1.5 mm day-1 over the Maritime Continent during El Niño compared to La Niña events, enhancing the precipitation variability over the tropical Pacific.

  3. Contribution of tropical instability waves to ENSO irregularity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, Ryan M.; McGregor, Shayne; Santoso, Agus; England, Matthew H.

    2018-05-01

    Tropical instability waves (TIWs) are a major source of internally-generated oceanic variability in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. These non-linear phenomena play an important role in the sea surface temperature (SST) budget in a region critical for low-frequency modes of variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, the direct contribution of TIW-driven stochastic variability to ENSO has received little attention. Here, we investigate the influence of TIWs on ENSO using a 1/4° ocean model coupled to a simple atmosphere. The use of a simple atmosphere removes complex intrinsic atmospheric variability while allowing the dominant mode of air-sea coupling to be represented as a statistical relationship between SST and wind stress anomalies. Using this hybrid coupled model, we perform a suite of coupled ensemble forecast experiments initiated with wind bursts in the western Pacific, where individual ensemble members differ only due to internal oceanic variability. We find that TIWs can induce a spread in the forecast amplitude of the Niño 3 SST anomaly 6-months after a given sequence of WWBs of approximately ± 45% the size of the ensemble mean anomaly. Further, when various estimates of stochastic atmospheric forcing are added, oceanic internal variability is found to contribute between about 20% and 70% of the ensemble forecast spread, with the remainder attributable to the atmospheric variability. While the oceanic contribution to ENSO stochastic forcing requires further quantification beyond the idealized approach used here, our results nevertheless suggest that TIWs may impact ENSO irregularity and predictability. This has implications for ENSO representation in low-resolution coupled models.

  4. The Role of Reversed Equatorial Zonal Transport in Terminating an ENSO Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, H. C.; Hu, Z. Z.; Huang, B.; Sui, C. H.

    2016-02-01

    In this study, we demonstrate that a sudden reversal of anomalous equatorial zonal current at the peaking ENSO phase triggers the rapid termination of an ENSO event. Throughout an ENSO cycle, the anomalous equatorial zonal current is strongly controlled by the concavity of the anomalous thermocline meridional structure near the equator. During the ENSO developing phase, the anomalous zonal current in the central and eastern Pacific generally enhances the ENSO growth through its zonal SST advection. In the mature phase of ENSO, however, the equatorial thermocline depth anomalies are reflected in the eastern Pacific and slowly propagate westward off the equator in both hemispheres. As a result, the concavity of the thermocline anomalies near the equator is reversed, i.e., the off-equatorial thermocline depth anomalies become higher than that on the equator for El Niño events and lower for La Niño events. This meridional change of thermocline structure reverses zonal transport rapidly in the central-to-eastern equatorial Pacific, which weakens the ENSO SST anomalies by reversed advection. More importantly, the reversed zonal mass transport weakens the existing zonal tilting of equatorial thermocline and suppresses the thermocline feedback. Both processes are concentrated in the eastern equatorial Pacific and can be effective on subseasonal time scales. These current reversal effects are built-in to the ENSO peak phase and independent of the zonal wind effect on thermocline slope. It functions as an oceanic control on ENSO evolution during both El Niño and La Niña events.

  5. Simulation of the climate impact of Mt. Pinatubo eruption using ECHAM5 – Part 2: Sensitivity to the phase of the QBO and ENSO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Thomas

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The sensitivity of the climate impact of Mt. Pinatubo eruption in the tropics and extratropics to different QBO phases is investigated. Mt. Pinatubo erupted in June 1991 during the easterly phase of the QBO at 30 hPa and the phase change to westerly took place in August 1992. Here, the consequences are analyzed if the QBO phase had been in the opposite phase during the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo. Hence, in this study, simulations are carried out using the middle atmosphere configuration of ECHAM5 general circulation model for two cases – one with the observed QBO phase and the other with the opposite QBO phase. The response of temperature and geopotential height in the lower stratosphere is evaluated for the following cases – (1 when only the effects of the QBO are included and (2 when the effects of aerosols, QBO and SSTs (combined response are included. The tropical QBO signature in the lower stratospheric temperature is well captured in the pure QBO responses and in the combined (aerosol + ocean + QBO responses. The response of the extratropical atmosphere to the QBO during the second winter after the eruption is captured realistically in the case of the combined forcing showing a strengthening of the polar vortex when the QBO is in its westerly phase and a warm, weak polar vortex in the easterly QBO phase. The vortex is disturbed during the first winter irrespective of the QBO phases in the combined responses and this may be due to the strong influences of El Niño during the first winters after eruption. However, the pure QBO experiments do not realistically reproduce a strengthening of the polar vortex in the westerly QBO phase, even though below normal temperatures in the high latitudes are seen in October-November-December months when the opposite QBO phase is prescribed instead of the December-January-February winter months used here for averaging.

  6. The Anticipation of the ENSO: What Resonantly Forced Baroclinic Waves Can Teach Us (Part II

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Louis Pinault

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the paper is to take advantage of recent work on the study of resonantly forced baroclinic waves in the tropical Pacific to significantly reduce systematic and random forecasting errors resulting from the current statistical models intended to predict El Niño. Their major drawback is that sea surface temperature (SST, which is widely used, is very difficult to decipher because of the extreme complexity of exchanges at the ocean-atmosphere interface. In contrast, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO forecasting can be performed between 7 and 8 months in advance precisely and very simply from (1 the subsurface water temperature at particular locations and (2 the time lag of the events (their expected date of occurrence compared to a regular 4-year cycle. Discrimination of precursor signals from objective criteria prevents the anticipation of wrong events, as occurred in 2012 and 2014. The amplitude of the events, their date of appearance, as well as their potential impact on the involved regions are estimated. Three types of ENSO events characterize their climate impact according to whether they are (1 unlagged or weakly lagged, (2 strongly lagged, or (3 out of phase with the annual quasi-stationary wave (QSW (Central Pacific El Niño events. This substantial progress is based on the analysis of baroclinic QSWs in the tropical basin and the resulting genesis of ENSO events. As for cold events, the amplification of La Niña can be seen a few months before the maturation phase of an El Niño event, as occurred in 1998 and 2016.

  7. Pretest Predictions for Phase II Ventilation Tests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yiming Sun

    2001-01-01

    The objective of this calculation is to predict the temperatures of the ventilating air, waste package surface, and concrete pipe walls that will be developed during the Phase II ventilation tests involving various test conditions. The results will be used as inputs to validating numerical approach for modeling continuous ventilation, and be used to support the repository subsurface design. The scope of the calculation is to identify the physical mechanisms and parameters related to thermal response in the Phase II ventilation tests, and describe numerical methods that are used to calculate the effects of continuous ventilation. The calculation is limited to thermal effect only. This engineering work activity is conducted in accordance with the ''Technical Work Plan for: Subsurface Performance Testing for License Application (LA) for Fiscal Year 2001'' (CRWMS M and O 2000d). This technical work plan (TWP) includes an AP-2.21Q, ''Quality Determinations and Planning for Scientific, Engineering, and Regulatory Compliance Activities'', activity evaluation (CRWMS M and O 2000d, Addendum A) that has determined this activity is subject to the YMP quality assurance (QA) program. The calculation is developed in accordance with the AP-3.12Q procedure, ''Calculations''. Additional background information regarding this activity is contained in the ''Development Plan for Ventilation Pretest Predictive Calculation'' (DP) (CRWMS M and O 2000a)

  8. Air-temperature variations and ENSO effects in Indonesia, the Philippines and El Salvador. ENSO patterns and changes from 1866-1993

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harger, J. R. E.

    industrial development in infrastructure for Jakarta has been significant only since 1980 or so and was not apparent before 1970 when the city had the aspect of an extended village with few large buildings (greater than 3-4 stories) and no extensive highways. The 1.65° difference between 1866 and 1991 can presumably by partitioned into: (1) urban heat-island effect, (2) effect of deforestation, (3) effect of secular micro-climate shift, (4) influence of general global warming with particular reference to the tropics. When the blocks of non-ENSO years in themselves are considered, the deviations from the secular trend for warmest month mean temperatures in successive years are correlated with that of the next immediate year deviation so that either continual warming or cooling appears to take place from the termination of one ENSO to the initiation of the next. When the deviations around the secular trend shown by the warmest month average temperatures are summed for the inter-ENSO intervals (the separate non-ENSO years) the resultant "heat-loading" index is positively correlated with the following (initial) ENSO warmest month deviation from the overall ENSO warmest month secular trend. This provides an immediate predictive mechanism for the likely strength of an ENSO, in terms of the dry season impact to the Island of Java, should one occur in the next year to break a non-ENSO sequence. The length of the build-up and the build-up achieved seems not to be related. The relationship does not in itself however, predict the occurrence of the "next" ENSO. The data show that a consistent structure underlies ENSO events for the last century and a quarter. However, as a process monitored by mean monthly air-temperature measurements at Jakarta-Semarang, the system is changing in character with time in association with an overall atmospheric temperature increase in a way that involves increased intra-annual temperature fluctuations. In general ENSO years are associated with higher

  9. Evaluation of corrosivity of the vapor-phase environments to sterilized water with chlorine; Enso kei mekkin shorisui no kisho kankyo no fushokusei

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nakata, Michio. [Nippon Steel Corp. Yamaguchi (Japan). Technical Development Bureau

    1999-08-15

    Corrosivity of vapor-phase aenvironments in indoor pool, water thank, and water purification plants was investigated. Sodium hypochlorite (NaClO) was used as a sterilizing agent in indoor pool, while chlorine gas was used in water tank and water purification plants. It was found that Cl{sup -} ion were concentrated in the dew formed in the indoor pool. H{sup +} ions as well as Cl{sup -} ions were accumulated in the dew dormed in the water tank ans water purification plants. Thus, the corrosion condition was varied with the type of sterilizing agents used. Through the investigation of water tanl, the relationship between pH and Cl{sup -} ion concentration was given as follow; pH=-1.09-2.19 log [Cl{sup -}] (mol/L). Corrosivity of vapor-phase enviroments in sterilizing water systems would be characterized by the exstence of oxidizing chemical agents such as ClO{sup -} and HClO, the shift of corrosion potenrial of the thin water film, and the accumulation of H{sup +} and/or Cl{sup -} ions in the dew. (author)

  10. A possible explanation for the divergent projection of ENSO amplitude change under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lin; Li, Tim; Yu, Yongqiang; Behera, Swadhin K.

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the greatest climate variability on interannual time scale, yet what controls ENSO amplitude changes under global warming (GW) is uncertain. Here we show that the fundamental factor that controls the divergent projections of ENSO amplitude change within 20 coupled general circulation models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 is the change of climatologic mean Pacific subtropical cell (STC), whose strength determines the meridional structure of ENSO perturbations and thus the anomalous thermocline response to the wind forcing. The change of the thermocline response is a key factor regulating the strength of Bjerknes thermocline and zonal advective feedbacks, which ultimately lead to the divergent changes in ENSO amplitude. Furthermore, by forcing an ocean general circulation mode with the change of zonal mean zonal wind stress estimated by a simple theoretical model, a weakening of the STC in future is obtained. Such a change implies that ENSO variability might strengthen under GW, which could have a profound socio-economic consequence.

  11. Response of ENSO amplitude to global warming in CESM large ensemble: uncertainty due to internal variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Xiao-Tong; Hui, Chang; Yeh, Sang-Wook

    2018-06-01

    El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of variability in the coupled ocean-atmospheric system. Future projections of ENSO change under global warming are highly uncertain among models. In this study, the effect of internal variability on ENSO amplitude change in future climate projections is investigated based on a 40-member ensemble from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) project. A large uncertainty is identified among ensemble members due to internal variability. The inter-member diversity is associated with a zonal dipole pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) change in the mean along the equator, which is similar to the second empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) in the unforced control simulation. The uncertainty in CESM-LE is comparable in magnitude to that among models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), suggesting the contribution of internal variability to the intermodel uncertainty in ENSO amplitude change. However, the causations between changes in ENSO amplitude and the mean state are distinct between CESM-LE and CMIP5 ensemble. The CESM-LE results indicate that a large ensemble of 15 members is needed to separate the relative contributions to ENSO amplitude change over the twenty-first century between forced response and internal variability.

  12. Do ENSO and Coastal Development Enhance Coastal Burial of Terrestrial Carbon?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macreadie, Peter I; Rolph, Timothy C; Boyd, Ron; Schröder-Adams, Claudia J; Skilbeck, Charles G

    2015-01-01

    Carbon cycling on the east coast of Australia has the potential to be strongly affected by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) intensification and coastal development (industrialization and urbanization). We performed paleoreconstructions of estuarine sediments from a seagrass-dominated estuary on the east coast of Australia (Tuggerah Lake, New South Wales) to test the hypothesis that millennial-scale ENSO intensification and European settlement in Australia have increased the transfer of organic carbon from land into coastal waters. Our data show that carbon accumulation rates within coastal sediments increased significantly during periods of maximum millennial-scale ENSO intensity ("super-ENSO") and coastal development. We suggest that ENSO and coastal development destabilize and liberate terrestrial soil carbon, which, during rainfall events (e.g., La Niña), washes into estuaries and becomes trapped and buried by coastal vegetation (seagrass in this case). Indeed, periods of high carbon burial were generally characterized as having rapid sedimentation rates, higher content of fine-grained sediments, and increased content of wood and charcoal fragments. These results, though preliminary, suggest that coastal development and ENSO intensification--both of which are predicted to increase over the coming century--can enhance capture and burial of terrestrial carbon by coastal ecosystems. These findings have important relevance for current efforts to build an understanding of terrestrial-marine carbon connectivity into global carbon budgets.

  13. The ENSO-pandemic influenza connection: coincident or causal?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaman, J. L.; Lipsitch, M.

    2011-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a coupled ocean-atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific, which affects weather conditions, including temperatures, precipitation, winds and storm activity, across the planet. ENSO has two extreme phases marked by either warmer (El Niño) or cooler (La Niña) than average sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific. We find that the 4 most recent human influenza pandemics (1918, 1957, 1968, 2009), all of which were first identified in boreal spring or summer, were preceded by La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific. Changes in ENSO have been shown to alter the migration, stopover time, fitness and interspecies mixing of migratory birds, and consequently likely affect their mixing with domestic animals. We hypothesize that La Niña conditions bring divergent influenza subtypes together in some parts of the world and favor the reassortment of influenza through simultaneous multiple infection of individual hosts and the generation of novel pandemic strains. We propose approaches to test this hypothesis using influenza population genetics, virus prevalence in various host species, and avian migration patterns.

  14. Decadal Monsoon-ENSO Relationships Reexamined

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yun, Kyung-Sook; Timmermann, Axel

    2018-02-01

    The strength of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) relationship shows considerable decadal fluctuations, which have been previously linked to low-frequency climatic processes such as shifts in ENSO's center of action or the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. However, random variability can also cause similar variations in the relationship between climate phenomena. Here we propose a statistical test to determine whether the observed time-evolving correlations between ENSO and ISMR are different from those expected from a simple stochastic null hypothesis model. The analysis focuses on the time evolution of moving correlations, their expected variance, and probabilities for rapid transitions. The results indicate that the time evolution of the observed running correlation between these climate modes is indistinguishable from a system in which the ISMR signal can be expressed as a stochastically perturbed ENSO signal. This challenges previous deterministic interpretations. Our results are further corroborated by the analysis of climate model simulations.

  15. Southern Hemisphere Extratropical Cyclones and their Relationship with ENSO in springtime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reboita, M. S.; Ambrizzi, T.; Da Rocha, R.

    2013-05-01

    Extratropical cyclones occurrence is associated with the teleconnection mechanisms that produce climate variability. Among these mechanisms we have El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Some works have indicated that during the ENSO positive phase there are more cyclogenetic conditions in some parts of the globe as the southwest of South Atlantic Ocean. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to verify if the extratropical cyclones number and location are altered in the different ENSO phases in the austral spring over the Southern Hemisphere (SH). The Melbourne University automatic tracking scheme was used to determine the cyclone climatology from 1980 to 2012. All cyclones that appear with lifetime higher or equal to 24 hours in the sea level pressure data from National Centers for Environment Prediction reanalysis I were included in the climatology. El Niño (EN), La Niña (LN) and Neutral (N) years were identified through the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) from Climate Prediction Center/NOAA. The average number of cyclones in the spring over the SH is similar in the EN (200), N (184) and LN (197) episodes. By latitude bands, during EN episodes the cyclones occurrence reduces in 16% between 70-60 degrees and increases in ~15% between 80-70 and 50-40 degrees. On the other hand, during the LN episodes, the cyclones are 17% more frequent in 50-60 degrees and 22% less frequent in 30-20 degrees. One more detailed analysis of the cyclones trajectory density (that is a statistic product of the tracking algorithm) shows that in the South Atlantic Ocean, near the southeast of South America, the number of cyclones in EN years is higher than in the neutral period and lower than in the LN years. In the Indian Ocean, the EN year is characterized by a cyclones reduction in the west and east sector, near the continents. In the Pacific Ocean, the region southward the New Zealand presents more cyclones occurrence in EN years.

  16. Cybernetic prediction of selenide Chevreul's phases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiseleva, N.N.; Savitskij, E.M.

    1981-01-01

    The method of training a computer is used to forecast the possibility for the formation of selenide Chevreul's phases of the Asub(x)Bsub(6)Sesub(8) composition (where A is any chemical element, B-Mo, Cr, W, Re). The peculiarities of applying cybernetic forecasting systems in inorganic chemistry are considered. The critical temperature of transfer into the superconducting state of some phases forecasted is estimated [ru

  17. ENSO's non-stationary and non-Gaussian character: the role of climate shifts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boucharel, J.; Dewitte, B.; Garel, B.; Du Penhoat, Y.

    2009-07-01

    El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of climate variability in the Pacific, having socio-economic impacts on surrounding regions. ENSO exhibits significant modulation on decadal to inter-decadal time scales which is related to changes in its characteristics (onset, amplitude, frequency, propagation, and predictability). Some of these characteristics tend to be overlooked in ENSO studies, such as its asymmetry (the number and amplitude of warm and cold events are not equal) and the deviation of its statistics from those of the Gaussian distribution. These properties could be related to the ability of the current generation of coupled models to predict ENSO and its modulation. Here, ENSO's non-Gaussian nature and asymmetry are diagnosed from in situ data and a variety of models (from intermediate complexity models to full-physics coupled general circulation models (CGCMs)) using robust statistical tools initially designed for financial mathematics studies. In particular α-stable laws are used as theoretical background material to measure (and quantify) the non-Gaussian character of ENSO time series and to estimate the skill of ``naïve'' statistical models in producing deviation from Gaussian laws and asymmetry. The former are based on non-stationary processes dominated by abrupt changes in mean state and empirical variance. It is shown that the α-stable character of ENSO may result from the presence of climate shifts in the time series. Also, cool (warm) periods are associated with ENSO statistics having a stronger (weaker) tendency towards Gaussianity and lower (greater) asymmetry. This supports the hypothesis of ENSO being rectified by changes in mean state through nonlinear processes. The relationship between changes in mean state and nonlinearity (skewness) is further investigated both in the Zebiak and Cane (1987)'s model and the models of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC). Whereas there is a clear relationship in all

  18. ENSO surface shortwave radiation forcing over the tropical Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. G. Pavlakis

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available We have studied the spatial and temporal variation of the downward shortwave radiation (DSR at the surface of the Earth during ENSO events for a 21-year period over the tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean (40° S–40° N, 90° E–75° W. The fluxes were computed using a deterministic model for atmospheric radiation transfer, along with satellite data from the ISCCP-D2 database, reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR for the key atmospheric and surface input parameters, and aerosol parameters from GADS (acronyms explained in main text. A clear anti-correlation was found between the downward shortwave radiation anomaly (DSR-A time-series, in the region 7° S–5° N 160° E–160° W located west of the Niño-3.4 region, and the Niño-3.4 index time-series. In this region where the highest in absolute value DSR anomalies are observed, the mean DSR anomaly values range from −45 Wm−2 during El Niño episodes to +40 Wm−2 during La Niña events. Within the Niño-3.4 region no significant DSR anomalies are observed during the cold ENSO phase in contrast to the warm ENSO phase. A high correlation was also found over the western Pacific (10° S–5° N, 120–140° E, where the mean DSR anomaly values range from +20 Wm−2 to −20 Wm−2 during El Niño and La Niña episodes, respectively. There is also convincing evidence that the time series of the mean downward shortwave radiation anomaly in the off-equatorial western Pacific region 7–15° N 150–170° E, precedes the Niño-3.4 index time-series by about 7 months and the pattern of this anomaly is indicative of ENSO operating through the mechanism of the western Pacific oscillator. Thus, the downward shortwave radiation anomaly is a complementary index to the SST anomaly for the study of ENSO events and can be used to assess whether or not El Niño or La Niña conditions prevail.

  19. Programming Useful Life Prediction (PULP), Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Accurately predicting Remaining Useful Life (RUL) provides significant benefits—it increases safety and reduces financial and labor resource requirements. Relying on...

  20. The natural oscillation of two types of ENSO events based on analyses of CMIP5 model control runs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Kang; Su, Jingzhi; Zhu, Congwen

    2014-07-01

    The eastern- and central-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation (EP- and CP-ENSO) have been found to be dominant in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and are characterized by interannual and decadal oscillation, respectively. In the present study, we defined the EP- and CP-ENSO modes by singular value decomposition (SVD) between SST and sea level pressure (SLP) anomalous fields. We evaluated the natural features of these two types of ENSO modes as simulated by the pre-industrial control runs of 20 models involved in phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The results suggested that all the models show good skill in simulating the SST and SLP anomaly dipolar structures for the EP-ENSO mode, but only 12 exhibit good performance in simulating the tripolar CP-ENSO modes. Wavelet analysis suggested that the ensemble principal components in these 12 models exhibit an interannual and multi-decadal oscillation related to the EP- and CP-ENSO, respectively. Since there are no changes in external forcing in the pre-industrial control runs, such a result implies that the decadal oscillation of CP-ENSO is possibly a result of natural climate variability rather than external forcing.

  1. Impacts of a Pinatubo-size volcanic eruption on ENSO

    KAUST Repository

    Predybaylo, Evgeniya

    2017-01-16

    Observations and model simulations of the climate responses to strong explosive low-latitude volcanic eruptions suggest a significant increase in the likelihood of El Niño during the eruption and posteruption years, though model results have been inconclusive and have varied in magnitude and even sign. In this study, we test how this spread of responses depends on the initial phase of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the eruption year and on the eruption\\'s seasonal timing. We employ the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory CM2.1 global coupled general circulation model to investigate the impact of the Pinatubo 1991 eruption, assuming that in 1991 ENSO would otherwise be in central or eastern Pacific El Niño, La Niña, or neutral phases. We obtain statistically significant El Niño responses in a year after the eruption for all cases except La Niña, which shows no response in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The eruption has a weaker impact on eastern Pacific El Niños than on central Pacific El Niños. We find that the ocean dynamical thermostat and (to a lesser extent) wind changes due to land-ocean temperature gradients are the main feedbacks affecting El Niño development after the eruption. The El Niño responses to eruptions occurring in summer are more pronounced than for winter and spring eruptions. That the climate response depends on eruption season and initial ENSO phase may help to reconcile apparent inconsistencies among previous studies.

  2. A Review of ENSO Influence on the North Atlantic. A Non-Stationary Signal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belén Rodríguez-Fonseca

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The atmospheric seasonal cycle of the North Atlantic region is dominated by meridional movements of the circulation systems: from the tropics, where the West African Monsoon and extreme tropical weather events take place, to the extratropics, where the circulation is dominated by seasonal changes in the jetstream and extratropical cyclones. Climate variability over the North Atlantic is controlled by various mechanisms. Atmospheric internal variability plays a crucial role in the mid-latitudes. However, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO is still the main source of predictability in this region situated far away from the Pacific. Although the ENSO influence over tropical and extra-tropical areas is related to different physical mechanisms, in both regions this teleconnection seems to be non-stationary in time and modulated by multidecadal changes of the mean flow. Nowadays, long observational records (greater than 100 years and modeling projects (e.g., CMIP permit detecting non-stationarities in the influence of ENSO over the Atlantic basin, and further analyzing its potential mechanisms. The present article reviews the ENSO influence over the Atlantic region, paying special attention to the stability of this teleconnection over time and the possible modulators. Evidence is given that the ENSO–Atlantic teleconnection is weak over the North Atlantic. In this regard, the multidecadal ocean variability seems to modulate the presence of teleconnections, which can lead to important impacts of ENSO and to open windows of opportunity for seasonal predictability.

  3. Evaluation of the effects of ENSO teleconnection on climatic parameters fluctuations in Khorasan Province I.R. of Iran

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ehteramian, Kourosh; Shahabfar, Alireza; Gharaei, Sohrab M.; Jamali, Javad B.

    2004-01-01

    The long term forecasting and monitoring of climatological parameters depends on identification of all effective factors, which are affects on this phenomena. One of these parameters is the weather signal. These signals are determinable and specific pattern and occurs in the distinguished regions in the world, but it's effects are world wide. One of the famous signals is ENSO phenomenon, which have two phases. In this paper with using annual and seasonal correlations between southern oscillation index (SOI) and precipitation and temperature data the effective amounts of ENSO phases on the differences of these factors was studied in the all regions of Khorasan province in Iran, then for more comprehensive study the classification maps in relation of ENSO and variability of precipitation and temperature were drown. It was concluded that the mentioned parameters in the whole of the province especially in central and north strip have shown significant action to ENSO, in other word the average of precipitation and temperature correlation indices are negative annually and seasonally, it means when SOI amounts are increased the precipitation and temperature in Khorasan will be decreased. With regard to increasing the above weather parameters in all regions of Khorasan at the time of ENSO negative phases (El Nino condition) variations of precipitation and temperature could be related to the changes of the pattern of occurrence this phenomenon (ENSO) due to climatic change around the world. (Author)

  4. Indo-Pacific ENSO modes in a double-basin Zebiak-Cane model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wieners, Claudia; de Ruijter, Will; Dijkstra, Henk

    2016-04-01

    We study Indo-Pacific interactions on ENSO timescales in a double-basin version of the Zebiak-Cane ENSO model, employing both time integrations and bifurcation analysis (continuation methods). The model contains two oceans (the Indian and Pacific Ocean) separated by a meridional wall. Interaction between the basins is possible via the atmosphere overlaying both basins. We focus on the effect of the Indian Ocean (both its mean state and its variability) on ENSO stability. In addition, inspired by analysis of observational data (Wieners et al, Coherent tropical Indo-Pacific interannual climate variability, in review), we investigate the effect of state-dependent atmospheric noise. Preliminary results include the following: 1) The background state of the Indian Ocean stabilises the Pacific ENSO (i.e. the Hopf bifurcation is shifted to higher values of the SST-atmosphere coupling), 2) the West Pacific cooling (warming) co-occurring with El Niño (La Niña) is essential to simulate the phase relations between Pacific and Indian SST anomalies, 3) a non-linear atmosphere is needed to simulate the effect of the Indian Ocean variability onto the Pacific ENSO that is suggested by observations.

  5. The influence of boreal spring Arctic Oscillation on the subsequent winter ENSO in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shangfeng; Chen, Wen; Yu, Bin

    2017-05-01

    This study examines the influence of boreal spring Arctic Oscillation (AO) on the subsequent winter El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) using 15 climate model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Results show that, out of the 15 CMIP5 models, CCSM4 and CNRM-CM5 can well reproduce the significant AO-ENSO connection. These two models capture the observed spring AO related anomalous cyclone (anticyclone) over the subtropical western-central North Pacific, and westerly (easterly) winds over the tropical western-central Pacific. In contrast, the spring AO-related anomalous circulation over the subtropical North Pacific is insignificant in the other 13 models, and the simulations in these models cannot capture the significant influence of the spring AO on ENSO. Further analyses indicate that the performance of the CMIP5 simulations in reproducing the AO-ENSO connection is related to the ability in simulating the spring North Pacific synoptic eddy intensity and the spring AO's Pacific component. Strong synoptic-scale eddy intensity results in a strong synoptic eddy feedback on the mean flow, leading to strong cyclonic circulation anomalies over the subtropical North Pacific, which contributes to a significant AO-ENSO connection. In addition, a strong spring AO's Pacific component and associated easterly wind anomalies to its south may provide more favorable conditions for the development of spring AO-related cyclonic circulation anomalies over the subtropical North Pacific.

  6. REDEFINING ENSO EPISODES BASED ON CHANGED CLIMATE REFERENCES

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Xiao-yan; ZHAI Pan-mao; REN Fu-min

    2005-01-01

    Through studying changes in ENSO indices relative to change of climate reference from 1961~1990 to 1971~2000, the study generated new standards to define ENSO episodes and their intensities. Then according to the new climate references and new index standards, ENSO episodes and their intensities for the period 1951 -2003 have been classified. Finally, an analysis has been performed comparing the new characteristics with the old ones for ENSO period, peak values and intensities.

  7. Uncertainty in the ocean-atmosphere feedbacks associated with ENSO in the reanalysis products

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kumar, Arun; Hu, Zeng-Zhen [NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States)

    2012-08-15

    The evolution of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability can be characterized by various ocean-atmosphere feedbacks, for example, the influence of ENSO related sea surface temperature (SST) variability on the low-level wind and surface heat fluxes in the equatorial tropical Pacific, which in turn affects the evolution of the SST. An analysis of these feedbacks requires physically consistent observational data sets. Availability of various reanalysis data sets produced during the last 15 years provides such an opportunity. A consolidated estimate of ocean surface fluxes based on multiple reanalyses also helps understand biases in ENSO predictions and simulations from climate models. In this paper, the intensity and the spatial structure of ocean-atmosphere feedback terms (precipitation, surface wind stress, and ocean surface heat flux) associated with ENSO are evaluated for six different reanalysis products. The analysis provides an estimate for the feedback terms that could be used for model validation studies. The analysis includes the robustness of the estimate across different reanalyses. Results show that one of the ''coupled'' reanalysis among the six investigated is closer to the ensemble mean of the results, suggesting that the coupled data assimilation may have the potential to better capture the overall atmosphere-ocean feedback processes associated with ENSO than the uncoupled ones. (orig.)

  8. Impact of 1990-'95 ENSO/WEPO event on Indian monsoon rainfall

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gopinathan, C.K.

    The negative phase of the 1990-'95 El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the associated Warming of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean (WEPO) was the longest observed in the 113 years of its recorded history, compared to its normal duration of 1 to 2...

  9. Linear dynamical modes as new variables for data-driven ENSO forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gavrilov, Andrey; Seleznev, Aleksei; Mukhin, Dmitry; Loskutov, Evgeny; Feigin, Alexander; Kurths, Juergen

    2018-05-01

    A new data-driven model for analysis and prediction of spatially distributed time series is proposed. The model is based on a linear dynamical mode (LDM) decomposition of the observed data which is derived from a recently developed nonlinear dimensionality reduction approach. The key point of this approach is its ability to take into account simple dynamical properties of the observed system by means of revealing the system's dominant time scales. The LDMs are used as new variables for empirical construction of a nonlinear stochastic evolution operator. The method is applied to the sea surface temperature anomaly field in the tropical belt where the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main mode of variability. The advantage of LDMs versus traditionally used empirical orthogonal function decomposition is demonstrated for this data. Specifically, it is shown that the new model has a competitive ENSO forecast skill in comparison with the other existing ENSO models.

  10. A synthesis of ENSO effects on drylands in Australia, North America and South America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Holmgren

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Fundamentally, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO is a climatic and oceanographic phenomenon, but it has profound effects on terrestrial ecosystems. Although the ecological effects of ENSO are becoming increasingly known from a wide range of terrestrial ecosystems (Holmgren et al., 2001, their impacts have been more intensively studied in arid and semiarid systems. In this brief communication, we summarize the main conclusions of a recent symposium on the effects of ENSO in these ecosystems, which was convened as part of the First Alexander von Humboldt International Conference on the El Niño Phenomenon and its Global Impact, in Guayaquil, Ecuador, from 16–20 May 2005. Participants in the symposium shared results and perspectives from research conducted in North and South America and Australia, regions where the ecological effects of ENSO have been studied in depth. Although the reports covered a wide array of organisms and ecological systems (Fig. 1, a recurring theme was the strong increase in rainfall associated with ENSO events in dry ecosystems (during the El Niño phase of the oscillation in the Americas and the La Niña phase in Australia. Because inter-annual variability in precipitation is such a strong determinant of productivity in arid and semiarid ecosystems, increased ENSO rainfall is crucial for plant recruitment, productivity and diversity in these ecosystems. Several long-term studies show that this pulse in primary productivity causes a subsequent increase in herbivores, followed by an increase in carnivores, with consequences for changes in ecosystem structure and functioning that can be quite complex.

  11. The role of the intra-daily SST variability in the Indian monsoon variability and monsoon-ENSO-IOD relationships in a global coupled model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Terray, Pascal; Kamala, Kakitha; Masson, Sebastien; Madec, Gurvan [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, LOCEAN/IPSL, CNRS/IRD/UPMC/MNHN, Paris Cedex 05 (France); Sahai, A.K. [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (India); Luo, Jing-Jia; Yamagata, Toshio [RIGC, Yokohama (Japan)

    2012-08-15

    The impact of diurnal SST coupling and vertical oceanic resolution on the simulation of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and its relationships with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events are studied through the analysis of four integrations of a high resolution Coupled General Circulation Model (CGCM), but with different configurations. The only differences between the four integrations are the frequency of coupling between the ocean and atmosphere for the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) parameter (2 vs. 24 h coupling) and/or the vertical oceanic resolution (31 vs. 301 levels) in the CGCM. Although the summer mean tropical climate is reasonably well captured with all the configurations of the CGCM and is not significantly modified by changing the frequency of SST coupling from once to twelve per day, the ISM-ENSO teleconnections are rather poorly simulated in the two simulations in which SST is exchanged only once per day, independently of the vertical oceanic resolution used in the CGCM. Surprisingly, when 2 h SST coupling is implemented in the CGCM, the ISM-ENSO teleconnection is better simulated, particularly, the complex lead-lag relationships between the two phenomena, in which a weak ISM occurs during the developing phase of an El Nino event in the Pacific, are closely resembling the observed ones. Evidence is presented to show that these improvements are related to changes in the characteristics of the model's El Nino which has a more realistic evolution in its developing and decaying phases, a stronger amplitude and a shift to lower frequencies when a 2-hourly SST coupling strategy is implemented without any significant changes in the basic state of the CGCM. As a consequence of these improvements in ENSO variability, the lead relationships between Indo-Pacific SSTs and ISM rainfall resemble the observed patterns more closely, the ISM-ENSO teleconnection is strengthened during boreal summer and ISM rainfall power spectrum

  12. ENSO Dynamics and Trends, AN Alternate View

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rojo Hernandez, J. D.; Lall, U.; Mesa, O. J.

    2017-12-01

    El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important inter-annual climate fluctuation on a planetary level with great effects on the hydrological cycle, agriculture, ecosystems, health and society. This work demonstrates the use of the Non-Homogeneus hidden Markov Models (NHMM) to characterize ENSO using a set of discrete states with variable transition probabilities matrix using the data of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) of the Kaplan Extended SST v2 between 120E -90W, 15N-15S from Jan-1856 to Dec-2016. ENSO spatial patterns, their temporal distribution, the transition probabilities between patterns and their temporal evolution are the main results of the NHHMM applied to ENSO. The five "hidden" states found appear to represent the different "Flavors" described in the literature: the Canonical El Niño, Central El Niño, a Neutral state, Central La Niña and the Canonical Niña. Using the whole record length of the SSTA it was possible to identify trends in the dynamic system, with a decrease in the probability of occurrence of the cold events and a significant increase of the warm events, in particular of Central El Niño events whose probability of occurrence has increased Dramatically since 1960 coupled with increases in global temperature.

  13. ENSO forecasts in South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The SST prediction systems currently being used at the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) and the South African Weather Service (SAWS) are presented. In particular, the skill of these systems to predict Niño3.4 SST and how...

  14. Prediction of transport phenomena in near and far field: interaction solid phase/fluid phase

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mingarro, E.

    1995-01-01

    The prediction of transport phenomena in near and far field is presented in the present report. The study begins with the analysis of solid phases stability: solubility of storage waste: UO 2 and solubility of radionuclides the redox and sorption-desorption conditions are the last aspects studied to predict the transport phenomena

  15. Equatorial Precession Drove Mid-Latitude Changes in ENSO-Scale Variation in the Earliest Miocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, B.; D'Andrea, W. J.; Lee, D. E.; Wilson, G. S.

    2014-12-01

    Foulden Maar is an annually laminated lacustrine diatomite deposit from the South Island of New Zealand. The deposit was laid down over ~100 kyr of the latest Oligocene and earliest Miocene, during the peak and deglaciation phase of the Mi-1 Antarctic glaciation event. At this time, New Zealand was located at approximately the same latitude as today (~45°S). Evidence from organic geochemical proxies (δD, δ13C) and physical properties (density, colour) indicates the presence of an 11-kyr cycle at the site. Although it is known that 11-kyr insolation (half-precession) cycles occur between the Tropics, this cycle is rarely seen in sedimentary archives deposited outside the immediate vicinity of the Equator. Records from Foulden Maar correlate well with the amplitude and phase of the modelled equatorial half-precession cycle for the earliest Miocene. High-resolution (50 µm) colour intensity measurements and lamina thickness measurements both indicate the presence of significant ENSO-like (2-8 year) variation in the Foulden Maar sediments. Early results from targeted lamina thickness measurements suggest that ENSO-band variation is modulated by the 11-kyr cycle, with power in the ENSO band increasing during periods of increased insolation at the Equator. This implies that equatorial half-precession had a significant effect on ENSO-like variation in the early Miocene, and that this effect was felt as far afield as the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere.

  16. Seasonal to Interannual Variability of Satellite-Based Precipitation Estimates in the Pacific Ocean Associated with ENSO from 1998 to 2014

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xueyan Hou

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Based on a widely used satellite precipitation product (TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis 3B43, we analyzed the spatiotemporal variability of precipitation over the Pacific Ocean for 1998–2014 at seasonal and interannual timescales, separately, using the conventional empirical orthogonal function (EOF and investigated the seasonal patterns associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO cycles using season-reliant empirical orthogonal function (SEOF analysis. Lagged correlation analysis was also applied to derive the lead/lag correlations of the first two SEOF modes for precipitation with Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO and two types of El Niño, i.e., central Pacific (CP El Niño and eastern Pacific (EP El Niño. We found that: (1 The first two seasonal EOF modes for precipitation represent the annual cycle of precipitation variations for the Pacific Ocean and the first interannual EOF mode shows the spatiotemporal variability associated with ENSO; (2 The first SEOF mode for precipitation is simultaneously associated with the development of El Niño and most likely coincides with CP El Niño. The second SEOF mode lagged behind ENSO by one year and is associated with post-El Niño years. PDO modulates precipitation variability significantly only when ENSO occurs by strengthening and prolonging the impacts of ENSO; (3 Seasonally evolving patterns of the first two SEOF modes represent the consecutive precipitation patterns associated with the entire development of EP El Niño and the following recovery year. The most significant variation occurs over the tropical Pacific, especially in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ and South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ; (4 Dry conditions in the western basin of the warm pool and wet conditions along the ITCZ and SPCZ bands during the mature phase of El Niño are associated with warm sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific, and a subtropical anticyclone dominating

  17. Present El Niño-ENSO events and past Super-ENSO events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    1993-01-01

    Full Text Available LES ÉVÉNEMENTS ENSO ACTUELS ET LES ANCIENS ÉVÉNEMENTS SUPER-ENSO. Les événements ENSO actuels et les anciens événements Super-ENSO représentent la redistribution d’énergie et de masse dans le système terrestre, due à l’échange de momentum angulaire entre la Terre “solide” et l’hydrosphère. Les événements El Niño-ENSO actuels montrent une corrélation claire avec des décélérations interannuelles de la vitesse de rotation de la Terre: la durée du jour (LOD augmente. Bien qu’il soit généralement considéré que ces changements de rotation sont causés par l’échange de momentum angulaire avec l’atmosphère, nous démontrons ici qu’une grande partie, peut-être la majeure partie, des variations du LOD sont causées en réalité par l’échange du momentum angulaire entre la terre “solide” et l’hydrosphère dans un systéme couplé de régénération. Ce mécanisme agit aussi sur des échelles de temps qui vont de la décennie au siècle, provoquant des événements Super-ENSO. Plusieurs de ces événements ont été identifiés au cours de l’Holocène. Un événement de plus grande envergure a eu lieu à l’ère médiévale. Au cours de la période qui va de 13.5 à 9.5 Ka, les changements importants peuvent représenter des événements Mega-ENSO. Au cours des âges glaciaires, avec une vitesse de rotation plus grande, il est probable que les événements ENSO-El Niño furent absents. Dans les enregistrements du passé, de courte durée, les empreintes d’événements Super-ENSO doivent étre beaucoup plus fréquents que ceux de véritables ENSO interannuels, simplement parce que ces derniers sont trop brefs et généralement trop légers. ACTUALES EVENTOS EL NIÑO-ENSO Y ANTIGUOS EVENTOS SUPER-ENSO. Los actuales eventos ENSO y los antiguos eventos Super-ENSO representan la redistribución de energía y masa en el sistema terrestre, debido al intercambio de momento angular entre la Tierra “sólida” y la

  18. Predicting phase equilibria in one-component systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korchuganova, M. R.; Esina, Z. N.

    2015-07-01

    It is shown that Simon equation coefficients for n-alkanes and n-alcohols can be modeled using critical and triple point parameters. Predictions of the phase liquid-vapor, solid-vapor, and liquid-solid equilibria in one-component systems are based on the Clausius-Clapeyron relation, Van der Waals and Simon equations, and the principle of thermodynamic similarity.

  19. Mean-state SST Response to global warming caused by the ENSO Nonlinearity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohyama, T.; Hartmann, D. L.

    2017-12-01

    The majority of the models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) exhibit El Niño-like trends under global warming. GFDL-ESM2M, however, is an exception that exhibits a La Niña-like response with strengthened trade winds. Our previous studies have shown that this La Niña-like trend could be a physically consistent warming response, and we proposed the Nonlinear ENSO Warming Suppression (NEWS) mechanism to explain this La Niña-like response to global warming. The most important necessary condition of NEWS is the ENSO skewness (El Niños are stronger than La Niñas). Most CMIP5 models do not reproduce the observed ENSO skewness, while GFDL-ESM2M exhibits the realistic ENSO skewness, which suggests that, despite being in the minority, the La Niña-like trend of GFDL-ESM2M could be a plausible equatorial Pacific response to warming. In this study, we introduce another interesting outlier, MIROC5, which reproduces the observed skewness, yet exhibits an El Niño-like response. By decomposing the source of the ENSO nonlinearity into the following three components: "SST anomalies modulate winds", "winds excite oceanic waves", and "oceanic waves modulate the subsurface temperature", we show that the large inter-model spread of the third component appears to explain the most important cause of the poor reproducibility of the ENSO nonlinearity in CMIP5 models. It is concluded that the change in the response of subsurface temperature to oceanic waves is the primary explanation for the different warming response of GFDL-ESM2M and MIROC5. Our analyses suggest that the difference of the warming response are caused by difference in the climatological thermal stratification. This study may shed new light on the fundamental question of why observed ENSO has a strong skewness and on the implications of this skewed ENSO for the mean-state sea surface temperature response to global warming.

  20. Marine lake ecosystem dynamics illustrate ENSO variation in the tropical western Pacific.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Laura E; Dawson, Michael N; Bell, Lori J; Colin, Patrick L

    2006-03-22

    Understanding El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its biological consequences is hindered by a lack of high-resolution, long-term data from the tropical western Pacific. We describe a preliminary, 6 year dataset that shows tightly coupled ENSO-related bio-physical dynamics in a seawater lake in Palau, Micronesia. The lake is more strongly stratified during La Niña than El Niño conditions, temperature anomalies in the lake co-vary strongly with the Niño 3.4 climate index, and the abundance of the dominant member of the pelagic community, an endemic subspecies of zooxanthellate jellyfish, is temperature associated. These results have broad relevance because the lake: (i) illustrates an ENSO signal that is partly obscured in surrounding semi-enclosed lagoon waters and, therefore, (ii) may provide a model system for studying the effects of climate change on community evolution and cnidarian-zooxanthellae symbioses, which (iii) should be traceable throughout the Holocene because the lake harbours a high quality sediment record; the sediment record should (iv) provide a sensitive and regionally unique record of Holocene climate relevant to predicting ENSO responses to future global climate change and, finally, (v) seawater lake ecosystems elsewhere in the Pacific may hold similar potential for past, present, and predictive measurements of climate variation and ecosystem response.

  1. Tree Carbohydrate Dynamics Across a Rainfall Gradient in Panama During the 2016 ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickman, L. T.; Xu, C.; Behar, H.; McDowell, N.

    2017-12-01

    Non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) provide a measure of the carbon supply available to support respiration, growth, and defense. Support for a role of carbon starvation - or depletion of NSC stores - in drought induced tree mortality is varied without consensus for the tropics. The 2016 ENSO drought provided a unique opportunity to capture drought impacts on tropical forest carbohydrate dynamics. To quantify these impacts, we collected monthly NSC samples across a rainfall gradient in Panama for the duration of the ENSO. We observed high variability in foliar NSC among species within sites. Foliage contained very little starch, indicating that total NSC dynamics are driven by soluble sugars. Foliar NSC depletion did not progress with drought duration as predicted, but showed little variation over course of the ENSO. Foliar NSC did, however, increase with rainfall, suggesting NSC depletion may occur with longer-term drought. These results suggest that, while short-term droughts like the 2016 ENSO may not have a significant impact on carbon dynamics, we may observe greater impacts as drought progresses over longer timescales. These results will be used to evaluate whether the current implementation of carbon starvation in climate models are capturing observed trends in tropical forest carbon allocation and mortality, and to tune model parameters for improved predictive capability.

  2. Influence of surface nudging on climatological mean and ENSO feedbacks in a coupled model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Jieshun; Kumar, Arun

    2018-01-01

    Studies have suggested that surface nudging could be an efficient way to reconstruct the subsurface ocean variability, and thus a useful method for initializing climate predictions (e.g., seasonal and decadal predictions). Surface nudging is also the basis for climate models with flux adjustments. In this study, however, some negative aspects of surface nudging on climate simulations in a coupled model are identified. Specifically, a low-resolution version of the NCEP Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2L) is used to examine the influence of nudging on simulations of climatological mean and on the coupled feedbacks during ENSO. The effect on ENSO feedbacks is diagnosed following a heat budget analysis of mixed layer temperature anomalies. Diagnostics of the climatological mean state indicates that, even though SST biases in all ocean basins, as expected, are eliminated, the fidelity of climatological precipitation, surface winds and subsurface temperature (or the thermocline depth) could be highly ocean basin dependent. This is exemplified by improvements in the climatology of these variables in the tropical Atlantic, but degradations in the tropical Pacific. Furthermore, surface nudging also distorts the dynamical feedbacks during ENSO. For example, while the thermocline feedback played a critical role during the evolution of ENSO in a free simulation, it only played a minor role in the nudged simulation. These results imply that, even though the simulation of surface temperature could be improved in a climate model with surface nudging, the physics behind might be unrealistic.

  3. ENSO shifts and their link to Southern Africa surface air temperature in summer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manatsa, D.; Mukwada, G.; Makaba, L.

    2018-05-01

    ENSO has been known to influence the trends of summer warming over Southern Africa. In this work, we used observational and reanalysis data to analyze the relationship between ENSO and maximum surface air temperature (SATmax) trends during the three epochs created by the ENSO phase shifts around 1977 and 1997 for the period 1960 to 2014. We observed that while ENSO and cloud cover remains the dominant factor controlling SATmax variability, the first two epochs had the predominant La Niña (El Niño)-like events connected to robust positive (negative) trends in cloud fraction. However, this established relationship reversed in the post-1997 La Niña-like dominated epoch which coincided with a falling cloud cover trend. It is established that this deviation from the previously established link within the previous epochs could be due to the post-1998 era in which SATmin was suppressed while SATmax was enhanced. The resulting increase in diurnal temperature range (DTR) could have discouraged the formation of low-level clouds which have relatively more extensive areal coverage and hence allowing more solar energy to reach the surface to boost daytime SATmax. It is noted that these relationships are more pronounced from December to March.

  4. High-pressure phase transitions - Examples of classical predictability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Celebonovic, Vladan

    1992-09-01

    The applicability of the Savic and Kasanin (1962-1967) classical theory of dense matter to laboratory experiments requiring estimates of high-pressure phase transitions was examined by determining phase transition pressures for a set of 19 chemical substances (including elements, hydrocarbons, metal oxides, and salts) for which experimental data were available. A comparison between experimental and transition points and those predicted by the Savic-Kasanin theory showed that the theory can be used for estimating values of transition pressures. The results also support conclusions obtained in previous astronomical applications of the Savic-Kasanin theory.

  5. On the physical causes of ENSO events and the ITCZ's extreme latitudinal displacements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Njau, E.C.

    1988-08-01

    We predict the maximum latitudinal shifts of the Inter-Tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) over land masses due to variations in the surface or near-surface temperature fields. We also predict the mean locations of the ITCZ over oceans during northern hemisphere (NH) and southern hemisphere (SH) summers. All our predictions are shown to agree well with observations. Finally, on the basis of the association between the latitudinal location of the eastern pacific portion of the ITCZ and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events as well as some previous related work (Njau, 1985a; 1985b; 1986; 1987; 1988), we suggest possible physical causes of the ENSO events. (author). 39 refs, 1 fig., 2 tabs

  6. Seasonal dependence of the predictable low-level circulation patterns over the tropical Indo-Pacific domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Tuantuan; Huang, Bohua; Yang, Song; Laohalertchai, Charoon

    2018-06-01

    The seasonal dependence of the prediction skill of 850-hPa monthly zonal wind over the tropical Indo-Pacific domain is examined using the ensemble reforecasts for 1983-2010 from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis and Reforecast (CFSRR) project. According to a maximum signal-to-noise empirical orthogonal function analysis, the most predictable patterns of atmospheric low-level circulation are associated with the developing and maturing phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The CFSv2 is capable of predicting these ENSO-related patterns up to 9-months in advance for all months, except for May-June when the effect of the spring barrier is strong. The other predictable climate processes associated with the low-level atmospheric circulation are more seasonally dependent. For winter and spring, the second most predictable patterns are associated with the ENSO decaying phase. Within these seasons, the monthly evolution of the predictable patterns is characterized by a southward shift of westerly wind anomalies, generated by the interaction between the annual cycle and the ENSO signals (i.e., the combination-mode). In general, the CFSv2 hindcast well predicts these patterns at least 5 months in advance for spring, while shows much lower skills for winter months. In summer, the second predictable patterns are associated with the western North Pacific (WNP) monsoon (i.e., the WNP anticyclone/cyclone) in short leads while associated with ENSO in longer leads (after 4-month lead). The second predictable patterns in fall are mainly associated with tropical Indian Ocean Dipole, which can be predicted 3 months in advance.

  7. A New ENSO Index Derived from Satellite Measurements of Column Ozone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziemke, J. R.; Chandra, S.; Oman, L. D.; Bhartia, P. K.

    2010-01-01

    Column Ozone measured in tropical latitudes from Nimbus 7 total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS), Earth Probe TOMS, solar backscatter ultraviolet (SBUV), and Aura ozone monitoring instrument (OMI) are used to derive an El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index. This index, which covers a time period from 1979 to the present, is defined as the Ozone ENSO Index (OEI) and is the first developed from atmospheric trace gas measurements. The OEI is constructed by first averaging monthly mean column ozone over two broad regions in the western and eastern Pacific and then taking their difference. This differencing yields a self-calibrating ENSO index which is independent of individual instrument calibration offsets and drifts in measurements over the long record. The combined Aura OMI and MLS ozone data confirm that zonal variability in total column ozone in the tropics caused by ENSO events lies almost entirely in the troposphere. As a result, the OEI can be derived directly from total column ozone instead of tropospheric column ozone. For clear-sky ozone measurements a +1K change in Nino 3.4 index corresponds to +2.9 Dobson Unit (DU) change in the OEI, while a +1 hPa change in SOI coincides with a -1.7DU change in the OEI. For ozone measurements under all cloud conditions these numbers are +2.4DU and -1.4 DU, respectively. As an ENSO index based upon ozone, it is potentially useful in evaluating climate models predicting long term changes in ozone and other trace gases.

  8. ENSO-Based Index Insurance: Approach and Peru Flood Risk Management Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khalil, A. F.; Kwon, H.; Lall, U.; Miranda, M. J.; Skees, J. R.

    2006-12-01

    Index insurance has recently been advocated as a useful risk transfer tool for disaster management situations where rapid fiscal relief is desirable, and where estimating insured losses may be difficult, time consuming, or subject to manipulation and falsification. For climate related hazards, a rainfall or temperature index may be proposed. However, rainfall may be highly spatially variable relative to the gauge network, and in many locations data are inadequate to develop an index due to short time-series and the spatial dispersion of stations. In such cases, it may be helpful to consider a climate proxy index as a regional rainfall index. This is particularly useful if a long record is available for the climate index through an independent source and it is well correlated with the regional rainfall hazard. Here, ENSO related climate indices are explored for use as a proxy to extreme rainfall in one of the departments of Peru -- Piura. The ENSO index insurance product may be purchased by banks or microfinance institutions (MFIs) to aid agricultural damage relief in Peru. Crop losses in the region are highly correlated with floods, but are difficult to assess directly. Beyond agriculture, many other sectors suffer as well. Basic infrastructure is destroyed during the most severe events. This disrupts trade for many micro-enterprises. The reliability and quality of the local rainfall data is variable. Averaging the financial risk across the region is desirable. Some issues with the implementation of the proxy ENSO index are identified and discussed. Specifically, we explore (a) the reliability of the index at different levels of probability of exceedance of maximum seasonal rainfall; (b) the potential for clustering of payoffs; (c) the potential that the index could be predicted with some lead time prior to the flood season; and (d) evidence for climate change or non-stationarity in the flood exceedance probability from the long ENSO record. Finally, prospects for

  9. Void fraction prediction in two-phase flows independent of the liquid phase density changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nazemi, E.; Feghhi, S.A.H.; Roshani, G.H.

    2014-01-01

    Gamma-ray densitometry is a frequently used non-invasive method to determine void fraction in two-phase gas liquid pipe flows. Performance of flow meters using gamma-ray attenuation depends strongly on the fluid properties. Variations of the fluid properties such as density in situations where temperature and pressure fluctuate would cause significant errors in determination of the void fraction in two-phase flows. A conventional solution overcoming such an obstacle is periodical recalibration which is a difficult task. This paper presents a method based on dual modality densitometry using Artificial Neural Network (ANN), which offers the advantage of measuring the void fraction independent of the liquid phase changes. An experimental setup was implemented to generate the required input data for training the network. ANNs were trained on the registered counts of the transmission and scattering detectors in different liquid phase densities and void fractions. Void fractions were predicted by ANNs with mean relative error of less than 0.45% in density variations range of 0.735 up to 0.98 gcm −3 . Applying this method would improve the performance of two-phase flow meters and eliminates the necessity of periodical recalibration. - Highlights: • Void fraction was predicted independent of density changes. • Recorded counts of detectors/void fraction were used as inputs/output of ANN. • ANN eliminated necessity of recalibration in changeable density of two-phase flows

  10. Cyclic Markov chains with an application to an intermediate ENSO model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. A. Pasmanter

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available We develop the theory of cyclic Markov chains and apply it to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO predictability problem. At the core of Markov chain modelling is a partition of the state space such that the transition rates between different state space cells can be computed and used most efficiently. We apply a partition technique, which divides the state space into multidimensional cells containing an equal number of data points. This partition leads to mathematical properties of the transition matrices which can be exploited further such as to establish connections with the dynamical theory of unstable periodic orbits. We introduce the concept of most and least predictable states. The data basis of our analysis consists of a multicentury-long data set obtained from an intermediate coupled atmosphere-ocean model of the tropical Pacific. This cyclostationary Markov chain approach captures the spring barrier in ENSO predictability and gives insight also into the dependence of ENSO predictability on the climatic state.

  11. Oceanic Channel of the IOD-ENSO teleconnection over the Indo-Pacific Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Dongliang; Wang, Jing; Zhao, Xia; Zhou, Hui; Xu, Tengfei; Xu, Peng

    2017-04-01

    The lag correlations of observations and model simulated data that participate the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 (CMIP5) are used to study the precursory teleconnection between the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the Pacific ENSO one year later through the Indonesian seas. The results suggest that Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) play an important role in the IOD-ENSO teleconnection. Numerical simulations using a hierarchy of ocean models and climate coupled models have shown that the interannual sea level depressions in the southeastern Indian Ocean during IOD force enhanced ITF to transport warm water of the Pacific warm pool to the Indian Ocean, producing cold subsurface temperature anomalies, which propagate to the eastern equatorial Pacific and induce significant coupled ocean-atmosphere evolution. The teleconnection is found to have decadal variability. Similar decadal variability has also been identified in the historical simulations of the CMIP5 models. The dynamics of the inter-basin teleconnection during the positive phases of the decadal variability are diagnosed to be the interannual variations of the ITF associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). During the negative phases, the thermocline in the eastern equatorial Pacific is anomalously deeper so that the sea surface temperature anomalies in the cold tongue are not sensitive to the thermocline depth changes. The IOD-ENSO teleconnection is found not affected significantly by the anthropogenic forcing.

  12. An MJO-Mediated Mechanism to Explain ENSO and IOD Impacts on East African Short Rains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaitchik, B. F.; Berhane, F.; Gnanadesikan, A.

    2015-12-01

    Previous studies have found that the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) have significant impacts on rainfall over East Africa (EA) during the short rains (Oct-Dec). However, not all ENSO and IOD events are associated with significant precipitation anomalies over EA. Our analysis shows that the IOD and ENSO influence EA rainfall by modifying the MJO. Composite analysis of rainfall and outgoing longwave radiation data show that the MJO over the Indian Ocean (phases 2 and 3 of the Wheeler and Hendon index) is associated with significant increase in precipitation over EA during El Niño. In La Niña and non-ENSO years, the MJO over the Indian Ocean has very weak impacts on EA convection and precipitation. Although previous studies have found that El Niño / La Niña events are associated with anomalous wetness/dryness over EA, the associations are not evident in the absence of the MJO. Similarly, the IOD exhibits strong associations with EA precipitation when there is MJO activity over the Indian Ocean. During the positive phase of the IOD, the MJO over the Indian Ocean has impacts that extend to EA. In the absence of the MJO, however, the IOD shows weak associations with EA precipitation. Furthermore, there are more MJO days in the Indian Ocean during El Niño and positive IOD events, which implies stronger impacts on EA. During La Niña events more MJO days are observed in the Pacific Ocean, favoring subsidence over the western Indian Ocean and dry anomalies over EA. These observations suggest two critical MJO-related questions that must be addressed in order to explain EA short rain variability typically attributed to ENSO or IOD: first, how do ENSO and IOD modify background conditions in a way that causes Indian Ocean MJO activity to be more strongly connected to EA under El Niño and IOD positive conditions, and second, why is it that El Niño and IOD positive states slow MJO propagation over the Indian Ocean and speed it over

  13. Biennial-Aligned Lunisolar-Forcing of ENSO: Implications for Simplified Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pukite, P. R.

    2017-12-01

    By solving Laplace's tidal equations along the equatorial Pacific thermocline, assuming a delayed-differential effective gravity forcing due to a combined lunar+solar (lunisolar) stimulus, we are able to precisely match ENSO periodic variations over wide intervals. The underlying pattern is difficult to decode by conventional means such as spectral analysis, which is why it has remained hidden for so long, despite the excellent agreement in the time-domain. What occurs is that a non-linear seasonal modulation with monthly and fortnightly lunar impulses along with a biennially-aligned "see-saw" is enough to cause a physical aliasing and thus multiple folding in the frequency spectrum. So, instead of a conventional spectral tidal decomposition, we opted for a time-domain cross-validating approach to calibrate the amplitude and phasing of the lunisolar cycles. As the lunar forcing consists of three fundamental periods (draconic, anomalistic, synodic), we used the measured Earth's length-of-day (LOD) decomposed and resolved at a monthly time-scale [1] to align the amplitude and phase precisely. Even slight variations from the known values of the long-period tides will degrade the fit, so a high-resolution calibration is possible. Moreover, a narrow training segment from 1880-1920 using NINO34/SOI data is adequate to extrapolate the cycles of the past 100 years (see attached figure). To further understand the biennial impact of a yearly differential-delay, we were able to also decompose using difference equations the historical sea-level-height readings at Sydney harbor to clearly expose the ENSO behavior. Finally, the ENSO lunisolar model was validated by back-extrapolating to Unified ENSO coral proxy (UEP) records dating to 1650. The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) behavior of equatorial stratospheric winds derives following a similar pattern to ENSO via the tidal equations, but with an emphasis on draconic forcing. This improvement in ENSO and QBO understanding has

  14. Prediction of the phase equilibria of methane hydrates using the direct phase coexistence methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Michalis, Vasileios K.; Costandy, Joseph; Economou, Ioannis G., E-mail: ioannis.economou@qatar.tamu.edu [Chemical Engineering Program, Texas A and M University at Qatar, P.O. Box 23847, Doha (Qatar); Tsimpanogiannis, Ioannis N.; Stubos, Athanassios K. [Environmental Research Laboratory, National Center for Scientific Research NCSR “Demokritos,” Aghia Paraskevi, Attiki GR-15310 (Greece)

    2015-01-28

    The direct phase coexistence method is used for the determination of the three-phase coexistence line of sI methane hydrates. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are carried out in the isothermal–isobaric ensemble in order to determine the coexistence temperature (T{sub 3}) at four different pressures, namely, 40, 100, 400, and 600 bar. Methane bubble formation that results in supersaturation of water with methane is generally avoided. The observed stochasticity of the hydrate growth and dissociation processes, which can be misleading in the determination of T{sub 3}, is treated with long simulations in the range of 1000–4000 ns and a relatively large number of independent runs. Statistical averaging of 25 runs per pressure results in T{sub 3} predictions that are found to deviate systematically by approximately 3.5 K from the experimental values. This is in good agreement with the deviation of 3.15 K between the prediction of TIP4P/Ice water force field used and the experimental melting temperature of ice Ih. The current results offer the most consistent and accurate predictions from MD simulation for the determination of T{sub 3} of methane hydrates. Methane solubility values are also calculated at the predicted equilibrium conditions and are found in good agreement with continuum-scale models.

  15. Salinity anomaly as a trigger for ENSO events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Jieshun; Huang, Bohua; Zhang, Rong-Hua; Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Kumar, Arun; Balmaseda, Magdalena A; Marx, Lawrence; Kinter, James L

    2014-10-29

    According to the classical theories of ENSO, subsurface anomalies in ocean thermal structure are precursors for ENSO events and their initial specification is essential for skillful ENSO forecast. Although ocean salinity in the tropical Pacific (particularly in the western Pacific warm pool) can vary in response to El Niño events, its effect on ENSO evolution and forecasts of ENSO has been less explored. Here we present evidence that, in addition to the passive response, salinity variability may also play an active role in ENSO evolution, and thus important in forecasting El Niño events. By comparing two forecast experiments in which the interannually variability of salinity in the ocean initial states is either included or excluded, the salinity variability is shown to be essential to correctly forecast the 2007/08 La Niña starting from April 2007. With realistic salinity initial states, the tendency to decay of the subsurface cold condition during the spring and early summer 2007 was interrupted by positive salinity anomalies in the upper central Pacific, which working together with the Bjerknes positive feedback, contributed to the development of the La Niña event. Our study suggests that ENSO forecasts will benefit from more accurate salinity observations with large-scale spatial coverage.

  16. Thermal Phase Variations of WASP-12b: Defying Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cowan, Nicolas B.; Machalek, Pavel; Croll, Bryce; Shekhtman, Louis M.; Burrows, Adam; Deming, Drake; Greene, Tom; Hora, Joseph L.

    2012-01-01

    We report Warm Spitzer full-orbit phase observations of WASP-12b at 3.6 and 4.5 micrometers. This extremely inflated hot Jupiter is thought to be overflowing its Roche lobe, undergoing mass loss and accretion onto its host star, and has been claimed to have a C/O ratio in excess of unity. We are able to measure the transit depths, eclipse depths, thermal and ellipsoidal phase variations at both wavelengths. The large-amplitude phase variations, combined with the planet's previously measured dayside spectral energy distribution, are indicative of non-zero Bond albedo and very poor day-night heat redistribution. The transit depths in the mid-infrared-(R(sub p)/R(sub *))(sup 2) = 0.0123(3) and 0.0111(3) at 3.6 and 4.5 micrometers, respectively-indicate that the atmospheric opacity is greater at 3.6 than at 4.5 micrometers, in disagreement with model predictions, irrespective of C/O ratio. The secondary eclipse depths are consistent with previous studies: F(sub day)/F(sub *) = 0.0038(4) and 0.0039(3) at 3.6 and 4.5 micrometers, respectively. We do not detect ellipsoidal variations at 3.6 micrometers, but our parameter uncertainties-estimated via prayer-bead Monte Carlo-keep this non-detection consistent with model predictions. At 4.5 micrometers, on the other hand, we detect ellipsoidal variations that are much stronger than predicted. If interpreted as a geometric effect due to the planet's elongated shape, these variations imply a 3:2 ratio for the planet's longest:shortest axes and a relatively bright day-night terminator. If we instead presume that the 4.5 micrometer ellipsoidal variations are due to uncorrected systematic noise and we fix the amplitude of the variations to zero, the best-fit 4.5 micrometer transit depth becomes commensurate with the 3.6 micrometer depth, within the uncertainties. The relative transit depths are then consistent with a solar composition and short scale height at the terminator. Assuming zero ellipsoidal variations also yields a much

  17. THERMAL PHASE VARIATIONS OF WASP-12b: DEFYING PREDICTIONS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cowan, Nicolas B.; Shekhtman, Louis M.; Machalek, Pavel; Croll, Bryce; Burrows, Adam; Deming, Drake; Greene, Tom; Hora, Joseph L.

    2012-01-01

    We report Warm Spitzer full-orbit phase observations of WASP-12b at 3.6 and 4.5 μm. This extremely inflated hot Jupiter is thought to be overflowing its Roche lobe, undergoing mass loss and accretion onto its host star, and has been claimed to have a C/O ratio in excess of unity. We are able to measure the transit depths, eclipse depths, thermal and ellipsoidal phase variations at both wavelengths. The large-amplitude phase variations, combined with the planet's previously measured dayside spectral energy distribution, are indicative of non-zero Bond albedo and very poor day-night heat redistribution. The transit depths in the mid-infrared—(R p /R * ) 2 = 0.0123(3) and 0.0111(3) at 3.6 and 4.5 μm, respectively—indicate that the atmospheric opacity is greater at 3.6 than at 4.5 μm, in disagreement with model predictions, irrespective of C/O ratio. The secondary eclipse depths are consistent with previous studies: F day /F * = 0.0038(4) and 0.0039(3) at 3.6 and 4.5 μm, respectively. We do not detect ellipsoidal variations at 3.6 μm, but our parameter uncertainties—estimated via prayer-bead Monte Carlo—keep this non-detection consistent with model predictions. At 4.5 μm, on the other hand, we detect ellipsoidal variations that are much stronger than predicted. If interpreted as a geometric effect due to the planet's elongated shape, these variations imply a 3:2 ratio for the planet's longest:shortest axes and a relatively bright day-night terminator. If we instead presume that the 4.5 μm ellipsoidal variations are due to uncorrected systematic noise and we fix the amplitude of the variations to zero, the best-fit 4.5 μm transit depth becomes commensurate with the 3.6 μm depth, within the uncertainties. The relative transit depths are then consistent with a solar composition and short scale height at the terminator. Assuming zero ellipsoidal variations also yields a much deeper 4.5 μm eclipse depth, consistent with a solar composition and modest

  18. THERMAL PHASE VARIATIONS OF WASP-12b: DEFYING PREDICTIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cowan, Nicolas B.; Shekhtman, Louis M. [Center for Interdisciplinary Exploration and Research in Astrophysics (CIERA) and Department of Physics and Astronomy, Northwestern University, 2131 Tech Dr, Evanston, IL 60208 (United States); Machalek, Pavel [SETI Institute, 189 Bernardo Ave., Suite 100, Mountain View, CA 94043 (United States); Croll, Bryce [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of Toronto, 50 George St., Toronto, ON, M5S 3H4 (Canada); Burrows, Adam [Department of Astrophysical Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 05844 (United States); Deming, Drake [Planetary Systems Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States); Greene, Tom [NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA 94035 (United States); Hora, Joseph L., E-mail: n-cowan@northwestern.edu [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States)

    2012-03-01

    We report Warm Spitzer full-orbit phase observations of WASP-12b at 3.6 and 4.5 {mu}m. This extremely inflated hot Jupiter is thought to be overflowing its Roche lobe, undergoing mass loss and accretion onto its host star, and has been claimed to have a C/O ratio in excess of unity. We are able to measure the transit depths, eclipse depths, thermal and ellipsoidal phase variations at both wavelengths. The large-amplitude phase variations, combined with the planet's previously measured dayside spectral energy distribution, are indicative of non-zero Bond albedo and very poor day-night heat redistribution. The transit depths in the mid-infrared-(R{sub p} /R{sub *}){sup 2} = 0.0123(3) and 0.0111(3) at 3.6 and 4.5 {mu}m, respectively-indicate that the atmospheric opacity is greater at 3.6 than at 4.5 {mu}m, in disagreement with model predictions, irrespective of C/O ratio. The secondary eclipse depths are consistent with previous studies: F{sub day}/F{sub *} = 0.0038(4) and 0.0039(3) at 3.6 and 4.5 {mu}m, respectively. We do not detect ellipsoidal variations at 3.6 {mu}m, but our parameter uncertainties-estimated via prayer-bead Monte Carlo-keep this non-detection consistent with model predictions. At 4.5 {mu}m, on the other hand, we detect ellipsoidal variations that are much stronger than predicted. If interpreted as a geometric effect due to the planet's elongated shape, these variations imply a 3:2 ratio for the planet's longest:shortest axes and a relatively bright day-night terminator. If we instead presume that the 4.5 {mu}m ellipsoidal variations are due to uncorrected systematic noise and we fix the amplitude of the variations to zero, the best-fit 4.5 {mu}m transit depth becomes commensurate with the 3.6 {mu}m depth, within the uncertainties. The relative transit depths are then consistent with a solar composition and short scale height at the terminator. Assuming zero ellipsoidal variations also yields a much deeper 4.5 {mu}m eclipse depth

  19. DMS role in ENSO cycle in the tropics: DMS Role in ENSO Cycle in Tropics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Li [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Now at Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine California USA; Cameron-Smith, Philip [Atmospheric, Earth and Energy Division, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore California USA; Russell, Lynn M. [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Ghan, Steven J. [Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Liu, Ying [Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Elliott, Scott [Climate Ocean Sea Ice Modeling, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos New Mexico USA; Yang, Yang [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Lou, Sijia [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Lamjiri, Maryam A. [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Manizza, Manfredi [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA

    2016-11-16

    We examined the multiyear mean and variability of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) and its relationship to sulfate aerosols, as well as cloud microphysical and radiative properties. We conducted a 150 year simulation using preindustrial conditions produced by the Community Earth System Model embedded with a dynamic DMS module. The model simulated the mean spatial distribution of DMS emissions and burden, as well as sulfur budgets associated with DMS, SO2, H2SO4, and sulfate that were generally similar to available observations and inventories for a variety of regions. Changes in simulated sea-to-air DMS emissions and associated atmospheric abundance, along with associated aerosols and cloud and radiative properties, were consistently dominated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle in the tropical Pacific region. Simulated DMS, aerosols, and clouds showed a weak positive feedback on sea surface temperature. This feedback suggests a link among DMS, aerosols, clouds, and climate on interannual timescales. The variability of DMS emissions associated with ENSO was primarily caused by a higher variation in wind speed during La Niña events. The simulation results also suggest that variations in DMS emissions increase the frequency of La Niña events but do not alter ENSO variability in terms of the standard deviation of the Niño 3 sea surface temperature anomalies.

  20. Solar cycle modulation of ENSO variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kodera, Kunihiko; Thiéblemont, Rémi

    2016-04-01

    Inspired by the work of Labitzke and van Loon on solar/QBO modulation in the stratosphere, Barnett (1989) conducted an investigation on the relationship between the the biannual component of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial eastern Pacific and the solar activity. He found that the amplitude of biannual component of the SST (BO) is modulated by the 11-year solar cycle: the amplitude of the BO is large during a period of low solar activity, but small during high solar activity. More than 25-years or two solar cycle has passed since his finding, but the relationship still holds. In order to get an insight into the mechanism of the solar modulation of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), here we have revisited this problem. Solar cycle modulation of the BO in the tropical SST is discernible since the end of the 19th centuries, but the amplitude modulation is particularly clear after 1960's. The composite analysis of the SST based on the amplitude of the BO during 1958-2012, indicates that the amplitude of BO is larger when the equatorial Pacific temperature anomalies are high in the central Pacific, but low in the eastern Pacific. Central Pacific anomalies extend to the northern hemisphere, while those in the central Pacific spread toward the southern hemisphere. In short, this anomalous SST pattern is similar to the El Niño modoki. In this connection, it should be noted that the solar signal in the tropical SST also exhibits a similar pattern. This suggests that the modulation of the ENSO variability by the solar cycle originates through a modulation of the El Niño Modoki rather than the canonical El Nino.

  1. ENSO events are induced by the Global Atmosphere Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serykh, Ilya; Byshev, Vladimir; Neiman, Victor; Romanov, Juri

    2014-05-01

    The large-scale anomalies in the planetary fields of the principal hydro-meteorological characteristics were found to appear prior the beginning and during the main phase of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean. The anomalies were interpreted as manifestation of the interannual Global Atmosphere Oscillation (GAO) in dynamics of the modern climatic system. The key feature of the GAO baric structure is a large-scale positive anomaly in tropical area (30N-30S, 50W-170E) surrounded by negative anomaly bending its outer boundaries. Eventually, such reconstruction of the atmospheric pressure field over tropical zone as a consequence of the GAO leads to Walker circulation cell reversal which is immediately followed by the next El Niño process starting. Spatio-temporal structure of the anomalous hydro-meteorological fields developing under impact of the GAO was analyzed using the monthly-mean atmospheric pressure data at sea level (HadSLP2) and near-surface temperature (CRUTEM4) prepared by GB Met Office Hadley Centre for period of 1948-2012, also we used wind data from US NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for the same period. Due to the presence of feed-forwards and feedbacks in the climate dynamics, the large-scale anomalies of characteristics appearing after the GAO cause their back effect on the system of interaction of the ocean-atmosphere-land. This is the secondary impact which can be implemented either by direct exchange of properties between the adjacent areas (this is seen most explicitly in the Indo-Pacific Region), or owing to teleconnections between the concrete climatic subsystems in different parts of the Earth. It is apparently that the secondary, or indirect, GAO impact spreading through the system of general atmospheric circulation has a certain phase shift in different areas, which depends first on the distance from the respective climatic anomalies, in particular, from the most intensive of them, appearing in the equatorial

  2. Characterization of extreme flood and drought events in Singapore and investigation of their relationships with ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xin; Babovic, Vladan

    2016-04-01

    Flood and drought are hydrologic extreme events that have significant impact on human and natural systems. Characterization of flood and drought in terms of their start, duration and strength, and investigation of the impact of natural climate variability (i.e., ENSO) and anthropogenic climate change on them can help decision makers to facilitate adaptions to mitigate potential enormous economic costs. To date, numerous studies in this area have been conducted, however, they are primarily focused on extra-tropical regions. Therefore, this study presented a detailed framework to characterize flood and drought events in a tropical urban city-state (i.e., Singapore), based on daily data from 26 precipitation stations. Flood and drought events are extracted from standardized precipitation anomalies from monthly to seasonal time scales. Frequency, duration and magnitude of flood and drought at all the stations are analyzed based on crossing theory. In addition, spatial variation of flood and drought characteristics in Singapore is investigated using ordinary kriging method. Lastly, the impact of ENSO condition on flood and drought characteristics is analyzed using regional regression method. The results show that Singapore can be prone to extreme flood and drought events at both monthly and seasonal time scales. ENSO has significant influence on flood and drought characteristics in Singapore, but mainly during the South West Monsoon season. During the El Niño phase, drought can become more extreme. The results have implications for water management practices in Singapore.

  3. Coral based-ENSO/IOD related climate variability in Indonesia: a review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yudawati Cahyarini, Sri; Henrizan, Marfasran

    2018-02-01

    Indonesia is located in the prominent site to study climate variability as it lies between Pacific and Indian Ocean. It has consequences to the regional climate in Indonesia that its climate variability is influenced by the climate events in the Pacific oceans (e.g. ENSO) and in the Indian ocean (e.g. IOD), and monsoon as well as Indonesian Throughflow (ITF). Northwestern monsoon causes rainfall in the region of Indonesia, while reversely Southwestern monsoon causes dry season around Indonesia. The ENSO warm phase called El Nino causes several droughts in Indonesian region, reversely the La Nina causes flooding in some regions in Indonesia. However, the impact of ENSO in Indonesia is different from one place to the others. Having better understanding on the climate phenomenon and its impact to the region requires long time series climate data. Paleoclimate study which provides climate data back into hundreds to thousands even to million years overcome this requirement. Coral Sr/Ca can provide information on past sea surface temperature (SST) and paired Sr/Ca and δ18O may be used to reconstruct variations in the precipitation balance (salinity) at monthly to annual interannual resolution. Several climate studies based on coral geochemical records in Indonesia show that coral Sr/Ca and δ18O from Indonesian records SST and salinity respectively. Coral Sr/Ca from inshore Seribu islands complex shows more air temperature rather than SST. Modern coral from Timor shows the impact of ENSO and IOD to the saliniy and SST is different at Timor sea. This result should be taken into account when interpreting Paleoclimate records over Indonesia. Timor coral also shows more pronounced low frequency SST variability compared to the SST reanalysis (model). The longer data of low frequency variability will improve the understanding of warming trend in this climatically important region.

  4. Analytical prediction of the electromagnetic torques in single-phase and two-phase ac motors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Popescu, M.

    2004-07-01

    The single-phase and two-phase versions of AC motors can be modelled by means of the two-axis (d-q) theory with sufficient accuracy when the equivalent circuit parameters are correctly estimated. This work attempts to present a unified approach to the analytical prediction of the electromagnetic torque of these machines. Classical d-q axes formulation requires that the reference frame should be fixed on the frame where the asymmetries arise, i.e. the stator and rotor. The asynchronous torques that characterize the induction motors are modelled in a stationary reference frame, where the d-q axes coincide with the physical magnetic axes of the stator windings. For the permanent magnet motors, that may exhibit asymmetries on both stator and rotor, the proposed solution includes: a series of frame transformations, followed by symmetrical components decomposition. As in single-phase and two-phase systems the homopolar component is zero; each symmetrical component - negative and positive - is further analysed using d-q axes theory. The superposition principle is employed to consider the magnets and rotor cage effects. The developed models account for the most important asymmetries of the motor configuration. These are, from the stator point of view, different distribution, conductors' dimensions and number of effective turns, non-orthogonal magnetic axes windings and from the rotor point of view, asymmetrical rotor cage, variable reluctance, and permanent magnets effect. The time and space harmonics effect is ignored. Test data are compared with the computed data in order to observe how the simplifying assumptions affect the level of accuracy. The analytical prediction methods make possible torque computation according to the nature of the torque being computed, namely, induction, reluctance and excitation (permanent magnet). The results are available for quasi steady-state, steady-state (rated or synchronous speed) and dynamic analyses. All the developed

  5. Change of ENSO characteristics in response to global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, X.; Xia, Y.; Yan, Y.; Feng, W.; Huang, F.; Yang, X. Q.

    2017-12-01

    By using datasets of HadISST monthly SST from 1895 to 2014 and 600-year simulations of two CESM model experiments with/without doubling of CO2 concentration, ENSO characteristics are compared pre- and post- global warming. The main results are as follows. Due to global warming, the maximum climatological SST warming occurs in the tropical western Pacific (La Niña-like background warming) and the tropical eastern Pacific (El Niño-like background warming) for observations and model, respectively, resulting in opposite zonal SST gradient anomalies in the tropical Pacific. The La Niña-like background warming induces intense surface divergence in the tropical central Pacific, which enhances the easterly trade winds in the tropical central-western Pacific and shifts the strongest ocean-atmosphere coupling westward, correspondingly. On the contrary, the El Niño-like background warming causes westerly winds in the whole tropical Pacific and moves the strongest ocean-atmosphere coupling eastward. Under the La Niña-like background warming, ENSO tends to develop and mature in the tropical central Pacific, because the background easterly wind anomaly weakens the ENSO-induced westerly wind anomaly in the tropical western Pacific, leading to the so-called "Central Pacific ENSO (CP ENSO)". However, the so-called "Eastern Pacific ENSO (EP ENSO)" is likely formed due to increased westerly wind anomaly by the El Niño-like background warming. ENSO lifetime is significantly extended under both the El Niño-like and the La Niña-like background warmings, and especially, it can be prolonged by up to 3 months in the situation of El Niño-like background warming. The prolonged El Nino lifetime mainly applies to extreme El Niño events, which is caused by earlier outbreak of the westerly wind bursts, shallower climatological thermocline depth and weaker "discharge" rate of the ENSO warm signal in response to global warming. Results from both observations and the model also show that

  6. Comparative Study of the Effects of ENSO Phenomenon (El Niño, La Niña on Temperature and Precipitation of Mashhad

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    vajiheh mohammadi sabet

    2017-03-01

    precipitation data was standardized. This was performed for comparing Temperature and Rain with ENSO index. The effect of the ENSO phenomenon on Mashhad precipitation and temperature in both graphical and cross-correlation was performed.As a final result, there is a good relation with latency zero up to 5 months for temperature and precipitation of Mashhad beyond the interval (-1, + 1. It cannot be claimed that after the phase of La Nina, El Nino must be entered and vice versa. This note is important for forecasting the temperature and precipitation of 2016coming months. If ENSO index in the coming months, especially in autumn and winter, decrease and inter in La Nina phase, the winter will be cold with low rainfall.

  7. A real-time ocean reanalyses intercomparison project in the context of tropical pacific observing system and ENSO monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Yan; Wen, C.; Kumar, A.; Balmaseda, M.; Fujii, Y.; Alves, O.; Martin, M.; Yang, X.; Vernieres, G.; Desportes, C.; Lee, T.; Ascione, I.; Gudgel, R.; Ishikawa, I.

    2017-12-01

    An ensemble of nine operational ocean reanalyses (ORAs) is now routinely collected, and is used to monitor the consistency across the tropical Pacific temperature analyses in real-time in support of ENSO monitoring, diagnostics, and prediction. The ensemble approach allows a more reliable estimate of the signal as well as an estimation of the noise among analyses. The real-time estimation of signal-to-noise ratio assists the prediction of ENSO. The ensemble approach also enables us to estimate the impact of the Tropical Pacific Observing System (TPOS) on the estimation of ENSO-related oceanic indicators. The ensemble mean is shown to have a better accuracy than individual ORAs, suggesting the ensemble approach is an effective tool to reduce uncertainties in temperature analysis for ENSO. The ensemble spread, as a measure of uncertainties in ORAs, is shown to be partially linked to the data counts of in situ observations. Despite the constraints by TPOS data, uncertainties in ORAs are still large in the northwestern tropical Pacific, in the SPCZ region, as well as in the central and northeastern tropical Pacific. The uncertainties in total temperature reduced significantly in 2015 due to the recovery of the TAO/TRITON array to approach the value before the TAO crisis in 2012. However, the uncertainties in anomalous temperature remained much higher than the pre-2012 value, probably due to uncertainties in the reference climatology. This highlights the importance of the long-term stability of the observing system for anomaly monitoring. The current data assimilation systems tend to constrain the solution very locally near the buoy sites, potentially damaging the larger-scale dynamical consistency. So there is an urgent need to improve data assimilation systems so that they can optimize the observation information from TPOS and contribute to improved ENSO prediction.

  8. Reforecasting the 1972-73 ENSO Event and the Monsoon Drought Over India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, J.; Huang, B.; Shin, C. S.

    2016-12-01

    This paper presents the results of reforcasting the 1972-73 ENSO event and the Indian summer monsoon drought using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), initialized with the Eu­ropean Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global ocean reanalysis version 4, and observation-based land and atmosphere reanalyses. The results of this paper demonstrate that if the modern day climate models were available during the 1970's, even with the limited observations at that time, it should have been possible to predict the 1972-73 ENSO event and the associated monsoon drought. These results further suggest the necessity of continuing to develop realistic models of the climate system for accurate and reliable seasonal predictions. This paper also presents a comparison of the 1972-73 El Niño reforecast with the 1997-98 case. As the strongest event during 1958-78, the 1972-73 El Niño is distinguished from the 1997-98 one by its early termination. Initialized in the spring season, the forecast system predicted the onset and development of both events reasonably well, although the reforecasts underestimate the ENSO peaking magnitudes. On the other hand, the reforecasts initialized in spring and fall of 1972 persistently predicted lingering wind and SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific during the spring of 1973. Initialized in fall of 1997, the reforecast also grossly overestimates the peaking westerly wind and warm SST anomalies in the 1997-98 El Niño.In 1972-73, both the Eastern Pacific SST anomalies (for example Nino 3 Index) and the summer monsoon drought over India and the adjoining areas were predicted remarkably well. In contrast, the Eastern Pacific SST anomalies for the 1997-98 event were predicted well, but the normal summer monsoon rainfall over India of 1997 was not predicted by the model. This case study of the 1972-73 event is part of a larger, comprehensive reforecast project

  9. Potential role of resurfacing Subtropical Underwater in ENSO evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qu, T.; Chi, J.

    2017-12-01

    Results from a model of the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) have shown that the resurfacing of high salinity Subtropical Underwater contributes to the sea surface salinity variability in the equatorial Pacific. On interannual time scale, this contribution can account for as much as 25% of the surface freshwater flux anomalies and is believed to play a role in ENSO evolution. Having these results in mind, this study investigates the surface salinity budget and its primary controls in the equatorial Pacific using ECCO output for the period 1993-2016. Particular attention is paid to 2014/2015 and 2015/2016. Preliminary analyses of the model results suggest that enhanced subsurface processes and in particular enhanced entrainment of Subtropical Underwater are primarily responsible for the positive sea surface salinity anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific during 2014/2015, which represents an opposite phase of El Niño. These subsurface processes weakened during 2015/2016, diretly contributing to the development of the 2015/2016 El Niño. The mechanisms controlling these subsurface processes are discussed.

  10. Seasonal Climate Predictability in a Coupled OAGCM Using a Different Approach for Ensemble Forecasts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Jing-Jia; Masson, Sebastien; Behera, Swadhin; Shingu, Satoru; Yamagata, Toshio

    2005-11-01

    Predictabilities of tropical climate signals are investigated using a relatively high resolution Scale Interaction Experiment Frontier Research Center for Global Change (FRCGC) coupled GCM (SINTEX-F). Five ensemble forecast members are generated by perturbing the model’s coupling physics, which accounts for the uncertainties of both initial conditions and model physics. Because of the model’s good performance in simulating the climatology and ENSO in the tropical Pacific, a simple coupled SST-nudging scheme generates realistic thermocline and surface wind variations in the equatorial Pacific. Several westerly and easterly wind bursts in the western Pacific are also captured.Hindcast results for the period 1982 2001 show a high predictability of ENSO. All past El Niño and La Niña events, including the strongest 1997/98 warm episode, are successfully predicted with the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) skill scores above 0.7 at the 12-month lead time. The predicted signals of some particular events, however, become weak with a delay in the phase at mid and long lead times. This is found to be related to the intraseasonal wind bursts that are unpredicted beyond a few months of lead time. The model forecasts also show a “spring prediction barrier” similar to that in observations. Spatial SST anomalies, teleconnection, and global drought/flood during three different phases of ENSO are successfully predicted at 9 12-month lead times.In the tropical North Atlantic and southwestern Indian Ocean, where ENSO has predominant influences, the model shows skillful predictions at the 7 12-month lead times. The distinct signal of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) event in 1994 is predicted at the 6-month lead time. SST anomalies near the western coast of Australia are also predicted beyond the 12-month lead time because of pronounced decadal signals there.

  11. ENSO influence on the interannual variability of the Red Sea convergence zone and associated rainfall

    KAUST Repository

    Dasari, Hari Prasad

    2017-07-18

    The Red Sea convergence zone (RSCZ) is formed by opposite surface winds blowing from northwest to southeast directions at around 18°-19°N between October and January. A reverse-oriented, low-level monsoon trough at 850hPa, known as the Red Sea trough (RST), transfers moisture from the southern Red Sea to RSCZ. The positions of the RSCZ and RST and the intensity of the RST have been identified as important factors in modulating weather and climatic conditions across the Middle East. Here, we investigate the influence of the El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) on the interannual variability of RSCZ, RST, and regional rainfall during winter months. Our results indicate that El Niño (warm ENSO phase) favours a shift of the RSCZ to the north and a strengthening of the RST in the same direction. Conversely, during November and December of La Niña periods (cold ENSO phase), the RSCZ shift to the south and the RST strengthens in the same direction. During El Niño periods, southeasterly wind speeds increase (20-30%) over the southern Red Sea and northwesterly wind speeds decrease (10-15%) over the northern Red Sea. Noticeable increases in the number of rainy days and the intensity of rain events are observed during El Niño phases. These increases are associated with colder than normal air intrusion at lower levels from the north combined with warm air intrusion from the south over the RSCZ. Our analysis suggests that during El Niño winters, warmer sea surface temperatures and higher convective instability over the Red Sea favour local storms conditions and increase rainfall over the Red Sea and adjoining regions.

  12. Simulation of Relationship between ENSO and winter precipitation over Western Himalayas: Application of Regional climate model (RegT-Band)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiwari, P. R.; Mohanty, U. C.; Dey, S.; Acharaya, N.; Sinha, P.

    2012-12-01

    Precipitation over the Western Himalayas region during winter is mainly associated with the passage of midlatitude synoptic systems known as western disturbances (WDs). Recently, many observational and modeling studies reported that the relationship of the Indian southwest monsoon rainfall with El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has weakened since around 1980. But, in contrast, only very few observational studies are reported so far to examine the relationship between ENSO and the winter precipitation over the Western Himalayas region from December to February (DJF). But there is a huge gap of modeling this phenomenon. So keeping in view of the absence of modeling studies, an attempt is made to simulate the relationship between wintertime precipitations associated with large scale global forcing of ENSO over the Western Himalayas. In the present study, RegT-Band, a tropical band version of the regional climate model RegCM4 is integrated for a set of 5 El Niño (1986-87, 1991-92, 1997-98, 2002-03, 2009-10) and 4 La Niña (1984-85, 1988-89, 1999-2000, 2007-08) years with the observed sea-surface temperature and lateral boundary condition. The domain extends from 50° S to 50° N and covers the entire tropics at a grid spacing of about 45 km, i.e. it includes lateral boundary forcing only at the southern and northern boundaries. The performance evaluation of the model in capturing the large scale fields followed by ENSO response with wintertime precipitation over the Western Himalayas region has been carried out by using National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis 2 (NNRP2) data (2.5° x 2.5°) and Aphrodite precipitation data (0.25° x 0.25°). The model is able to delineate the mean circulation associated with ENSO over the region during DJF reasonably well and shows strong southwesterly to northwesterly wind flow, which is there in verification analysis also. The vertical structure of the low as well as upper level

  13. Fossil Coral Records of ENSO during the Last Glacial Period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Partin, J. W.; Taylor, F. W.; Shen, C. C.; Edwards, R. L.; Quinn, T. M.; DiNezro, P.

    2017-12-01

    Only a handful of paleoclimate records exist that can resolve interannual changes, and hence El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, during the last glacial period, a time of altered mean climate. The few existing data suggest reduced ENSO variability compared to the Holocene, possibly due to a weaker zonal sea surface temperature gradient across the tropical Pacific and/or a deeper thermocline in the eastern tropical Pacific. Our goal is to add crucial data to this extremely limited subset using sub-annually resolved fossil corals that grew during this time period to reconstruct ENSO. We seek to recover fossil corals from Vanuatu, SW Pacific (16°S, 167°E) with the objective of using coral δ18O to reconstruct changes in the ENSO during and near the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Modern δ18O coral records from Vanuatu show a high degree of skill in capturing ENSO variability, making it a suitable site for reconstructing ENSO variability. We have custom designed and are building a drill system that can rapidly core many 0-25 m holes resulting in much more meters of penetration than achieved by previous land-based reef drilling. As the new drill system is extremely portable and can be quickly relocated by workers without landing craft or vehicles, it is time and cost efficient. Because the proposed drilling sites have uplifted extremely fast, 7 mm/year, the LGM shoreline has been raised from 120-140 m depth to within a depth range of 10 below to 20 m above present sea level. This enables all the drilling to be within the time range of interest ( 15-25 ka). A last advantage is that the LGM corals either are still submersed in seawater or emerged only within the last 2000 years at the uplift rate of 7 mm/yr. This greatly reduces the chances of disruption of the original climate signal because sea water is less diagenetically damaging than meteoric water in the mixed, phreatic, or vadose zones. LGM coral records will enable us to compare the proxy variability

  14. How well do climate models simulate atmospheric teleconnctions over the North Pacific and East Asia associated with ENSO?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sunyong; Son, Hye-Young; Kug, Jong-Seong

    2017-02-01

    During the El Niño and La Niña mature phase, atmospheric teleconnections over the North Pacific and East Asia vary considerably on sub-seasonal time scales, and are strongly phase-locked to the sub-seasonal evolution. In this study, we investigate how well climate models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulate the sub-seasonal evolution of teleconnections over the North Pacific and East Asia associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In the observations, there is a prominent anticyclone anomaly over the Kuroshio extension region (i.e. Kuroshio anticyclone), which significantly affects East Asian climate in the early winter (November-December) of El Niño years. However, in January, the Kuroshio anticyclone suddenly disappears, and a cyclonic flow dominates over the North Pacific. It is found here that the CMIP5 models simulate the overall extratropical teleconnection patterns, but they fail to reproduce some of these sub-seasonally-varying features in atmospheric circulation. For example, the models tend to simulate a weaker Kuroshio anticyclone in the early winter during El Niño phases, and fail to capture the abrupt decay of the Kuroshio anticyclone in the late winter. We demonstrate here that these systematic errors in ENSO teleconnection can be explained by systematic errors in tropical precipitation associated with ENSO. That is, negative precipitation anomalies over the western North Pacific (WNP) are too weak in the models compared to that in the observations, and their amplitude tends to be strengthened from December to the following January, while they are weakened in the observations. In addition, analyses on the inter-model diversity strongly support that relative magnitudes of WNP and central Pacific precipitation anomalies are critical for determining sub-seasonal evolution of ENSO teleconnections over the North Pacific and East Asia.

  15. Improvements of ENSO-monsoon relationship in CMIP5 models through statistical downscaling over India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akhter, J.; Das, L.; Deb, A.

    2017-12-01

    Present study has assessed the skills of global climate models (GCMS) from coupled model inter-comparison project phase five (CMIP5) in simulating ENSO-monsoon relationships over seven homogeneous zones of India. Observational sea surface temperature (SST) data has revealed that there has been a significant negative correlation between zonal precipitation and Nino 3.4 index over North Mountainous India, North West India, North Central India, West Peninsular India and South Peninsular India. First and third principal component (PC) of zonal precipitation explaining 44.4% and 14.2% variance respectively has also shown significant anti-correlation with Nino 3.4. Analysis with CMIP5 models revealed that majority of GCMs have failed to reproduce both magnitude and phase of such relationships mainly due to poor simulation of Nino 3.4 index. Therefore, an attempt has been made to improve the results through empirical orthogonal function (EOF) based statistical downscaling of CMIP5 GCMs. To downscale Nino 3.4 index, an optimal predictor combination of PCs extracted from EOF fields of large scale GCM predictors like Geo-potential height, u and v wind, Specific and relative humidity and air temperature at pressure levels 500, 850 and 1000 hpa, mean sea level pressure and atmospheric vapor content has been utilized. Results indicated improvements of downscaled CMIP5 models in simulating ENSO-monsoon relationship for zone wise precipitation. Multi-model ensemble (MME) of downscaled GCMs has better skill than individuals GCM. Therefore, downscaled MME may be used more reliably to investigate future ENSO-monsoon relationship under various warming scenarios

  16. Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 2 (JMA/MRI-CPS2): atmosphere-land-ocean-sea ice coupled prediction system for operational seasonal forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takaya, Yuhei; Hirahara, Shoji; Yasuda, Tamaki; Matsueda, Satoko; Toyoda, Takahiro; Fujii, Yosuke; Sugimoto, Hiroyuki; Matsukawa, Chihiro; Ishikawa, Ichiro; Mori, Hirotoshi; Nagasawa, Ryoji; Kubo, Yutaro; Adachi, Noriyuki; Yamanaka, Goro; Kuragano, Tsurane; Shimpo, Akihiko; Maeda, Shuhei; Ose, Tomoaki

    2018-02-01

    This paper describes the Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 2 (JMA/MRI-CPS2), which was put into operation in June 2015 for the purpose of performing seasonal predictions. JMA/MRI-CPS2 has various upgrades from its predecessor, JMA/MRI-CPS1, including improved resolution and physics in its atmospheric and oceanic components, introduction of an interactive sea-ice model and realistic initialization of its land component. Verification of extensive re-forecasts covering a 30-year period (1981-2010) demonstrates that JMA/MRI-CPS2 possesses improved seasonal predictive skills for both atmospheric and oceanic interannual variability as well as key coupled variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For ENSO prediction, the new system better represents the forecast uncertainty and transition/duration of ENSO phases. Our analysis suggests that the enhanced predictive skills are attributable to incremental improvements resulting from all of the changes, as is apparent in the beneficial effects of sea-ice coupling and land initialization on 2-m temperature predictions. JMA/MRI-CPS2 is capable of reasonably representing the seasonal cycle and secular trends of sea ice. The sea-ice coupling remarkably enhances the predictive capability for the Arctic 2-m temperature, indicating the importance of this factor, particularly for seasonal predictions in the Arctic region.

  17. High-Fidelity Aerodynamic Design with Transition Prediction, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — To enhance aerodynamic design capabilities, Desktop Aeronautics proposes to significantly improve upon the integration (performed in Phase 1) of a new sweep/taper...

  18. Cu–Ni nanoalloy phase diagram – Prediction and experiment

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sopoušek, J.; Vřešťál, J.; Pinkas, J.; Brož, P.; Buršík, Jiří; Stýskalík, A.; Škoda, D.; Zobač, O.; Lee, J.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 45, June (2014), s. 33-39 ISSN 0364-5916 Institutional support: RVO:68081723 Keywords : nanoalloy * phase diagram * thermodynamic modeling Subject RIV: BJ - Thermodynamics Impact factor: 1.370, year: 2014

  19. Prediction of Phase Separation of Immiscible Ga-Tl Alloys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Yunkyum; Kim, Han Gyeol; Kang, Youn-Bae; Kaptay, George; Lee, Joonho

    2017-06-01

    Phase separation temperature of Ga-Tl liquid alloys was investigated using the constrained drop method. With this method, density and surface tension were investigated together. Despite strong repulsive interactions, molar volume showed ideal mixing behavior, whereas surface tension of the alloy was close to that of pure Tl due to preferential adsorption of Tl. Phase separation temperatures and surface tension values obtained with this method were close to the theoretically calculated values using three different thermodynamic models.

  20. Asymptotic solving method for sea-air coupled oscillator ENSO model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou Xian-Chun; Yao Jing-Sun; Mo Jia-Qi

    2012-01-01

    The ENSO is an interannual phenomenon involved in the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere interaction. In this article, we create an asymptotic solving method for the nonlinear system of the ENSO model. The asymptotic solution is obtained. And then we can furnish weather forecasts theoretically and other behaviors and rules for the atmosphere-ocean oscillator of the ENSO. (general)

  1. Robust Prediction of High Lift Using Surface Vorticity, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — FlightStream has been developed a fast, accurate, aerodynamic prediction code based on vorticity computations on the surface of an aircraft. The code, though still a...

  2. Computational Appliance for Rapid Prediction of Aircraft Trajectories, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Next generation air traffic management systems will be based to a greater degree on predicted trajectories of aircraft. Due to the iterative nature of future air...

  3. GEOS-5 Seasonal Forecast System: ENSO Prediction Skill and Bias

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borovikov, Anna; Kovach, Robin; Marshak, Jelena

    2018-01-01

    The GEOS-5 AOGCM known as S2S-1.0 has been in service from June 2012 through January 2018 (Borovikov et al. 2017). The atmospheric component of S2S-1.0 is Fortuna-2.5, the same that was used for the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), but with adjusted parameterization of moist processes and turbulence. The ocean component is the Modular Ocean Model version 4 (MOM4). The sea ice component is the Community Ice CodE, version 4 (CICE). The land surface model is a catchment-based hydrological model coupled to the multi-layer snow model. The AGCM uses a Cartesian grid with a 1 deg × 1.25 deg horizontal resolution and 72 hybrid vertical levels with the upper most level at 0.01 hPa. OGCM nominal resolution of the tripolar grid is 1/2 deg, with a meridional equatorial refinement to 1/4 deg. In the coupled model initialization, selected atmospheric variables are constrained with MERRA. The Goddard Earth Observing System integrated Ocean Data Assimilation System (GEOS-iODAS) is used for both ocean state and sea ice initialization. SST, T and S profiles and sea ice concentration were assimilated.

  4. Forest Understory Fire in the Brazilian Amazon in ENSO and Non-ENSO Years: Area Burned and Committed Carbon Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alencar, A.; Nepstad, D.; Ver-Diaz, M. Del. C.

    2004-01-01

    "Understory fires" that burn the floor of standing forests are one of the most important types of forest impoverishment in the Amazon, especially during the severe droughts of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes. However, we are aware of no estimates of the areal extent of these fires for the Brazilian Amazon and, hence, of their contribution to Amazon carbon fluxes to the atmosphere. We calculated the area of forest understory fires for the Brazilian Amazon region during an El Nino (1998) and a non El Nino (1995) year based on forest fire scars mapped with satellite images for three locations in eastern and southern Amazon, where deforestation is concentrated. The three study sites represented a gradient of both forest types and dry season severity. The burning scar maps were used to determine how the percentage of forest that burned varied with distance from agricultural clearings. These spatial functions were then applied to similar forest/climate combinations outside of the study sites to derive an initial estimate for the Brazilian Amazon. Ninety-one percent of the forest area that burned in the study sites was within the first kilometer of a clearing for the non ENSO year and within the first four kilometers for the ENSO year. The area of forest burned by understory forest fire during the severe drought (ENSO) year (3.9 millions of hectares) was 13 times greater than the area burned during the average rainfall year (0.2 million hectares), and twice the area of annual deforestation rate. Dense forest was, proportionally, the forest area most affected by understory fires during the El Nino year, while understory fires were concentrated in transitional forests during the year of average rainfall. Our estimate of aboveground tree biomass killed by fire ranged from 0.06 Pg to 0.38 Pg during the ENSO and from 0,004 Pg to 0,024 Pg during the non ENSO.

  5. Thermal property prediction and measurement of organic phase change materials in the liquid phase near the melting point

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O’Connor, William E.; Warzoha, Ronald; Weigand, Rebecca; Fleischer, Amy S.; Wemhoff, Aaron P.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Liquid-phase thermal properties for five phase change materials were estimated. • Various liquid phase and phase transition thermal properties were measured. • The thermal diffusivity was found using a best path to prediction approach. • The thermal diffusivity predictive method shows 15% agreement for organic PCMs. - Abstract: Organic phase change materials (PCMs) are a popular choice for many thermal energy storage applications including solar energy, building envelope thermal barriers, and passive cooling of portable electronics. Since the extent of phase change during a heating or cooling process is dependent upon rapid thermal penetration into the PCM, accurate knowledge of the thermal diffusivity of the PCM in both solid and liquid phases is crucial. This study addresses the existing gaps in information for liquid-phase PCM properties by examining an approach that determines the best path to prediction (BPP) for the thermal diffusivity of both alkanes and unsaturated acids. Knowledge of the BPP will enable researchers to explore the influence of PCM molecular structure on bulk thermophysical properties, thereby allowing the fabrication of optimized PCMs. The BPP method determines which of the tens of thousands of combinations of 22 different available theoretical techniques provides best agreement with thermal diffusivity values based on reported or measured density, heat capacity, and thermal conductivity for each of five PCMs (heneicosane, tricosane, tetracosane, oleic acid, and linoleic acid) in the liquid phase near the melting point. Separate BPPs were calibrated for alkanes based on heneicosane and tetracosane, and for the unsaturated acids. The alkane and unsaturated acid BPPs were then tested on a variety of similar materials, showing agreement with reported/measured thermal diffusivity within ∼15% for all materials. The alkane BPP was then applied to find that increasing the length of alkane chains decreases the PCM thermal

  6. Electron band theory predictions and the construction of phase diagrams

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watson, R.E.; Bennett, L.H.; Davenport, J.W.; Weinert, M.

    1985-01-01

    The a priori theory of metals is yielding energy results which are relevant to the construction of phase diagrams - to the solution phases as well as to line compounds. There is a wide range in the rigor of the calculations currently being done and this is discussed. Calculations for the structural stabilities (fcc vs bcc vs hcp) of the elemental metals, quantities which are employed in the constructs of the terminal phases, are reviewed and shown to be inconsistent with the values currently employed in such constructs (also see Miodownik elsewhere in this volume). Finally, as an example, the calculated heats of formation are compared with experiment for PtHf, IrTa and OsW, three compounds with the same electron to atom ratio but different bonding properties

  7. ENSO variability reflected in precipitation oxygen isotopes across the Asian Summer Monsoon region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Zhongyin; Tian, Lide; Bowen, Gabriel J.

    2017-10-01

    Oxygen isotope signals (δ18O) from paleo-archives are important proxies for past Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) climate reconstruction. However, causes of interannual variation in the δ18O values of modern precipitation across the ASM region remain in argument. We report interannual δ18O variation in southern Tibetan Plateau precipitation based on long-term observations at Lhasa. These data, together with precipitation δ18O records from five Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) stations and two ice core δ18O records, were used to define a regional metric of ASM precipitation δ18O (ASMOI). Back-trajectory analyses for rainy season precipitation events indicate that moisture sources vary little between years with relatively high and low δ18O values, a result that is consistent for the south (Lhasa), southeast (Bangkok), and east ASM regions (Hong Kong). In contrast, δ18O values at these three locations are significantly correlated with convection in the estimated source regions and along transport paths. These results suggest that upstream convection, rather than moisture source change, causes interannual variation in ASM precipitation δ18O values. Contrasting values of the ASMOI in El Niño and La Niña years reveal a positive isotope-El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response (e.g., high values corresponding to warm phases), which we interpret as a response to changes in regional convection. We show that the isotope-ENSO response is amplified at high elevation sites and during La Niña years. These findings should improve interpretations of paleo-δ18O data as a proxy for past ASM variation and provide new opportunities to use data from this region to study paleo-ENSO activity.

  8. Precipitation and ice core isotopes from the Asian Summer Monsoon region reflect coherent ENSO variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Z.; Tian, L.; Bowen, G. J.

    2017-12-01

    Oxygen isotope signals (δ18O) from paleo-archives are important proxies for past Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) climate reconstruction. However, causes of interannual variation in the δ18O values of modern precipitation across the ASM region remain in argument. We report interannual δ18O variation in southern Tibetan Plateau precipitation based on long-term observations at Lhasa. These data, together with precipitation δ18O records from five Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) stations and two ice core δ18O records, were used to define a regional metric of ASM precipitation δ18O (ASMOI). Back-trajectory analyses for rainy season precipitation events indicate that moisture sources vary little between years with relatively high and low δ18O values, a result that is consistent for the south (Lhasa), southeast (Bangkok), and east ASM regions (Hong Kong). In contrast, δ18O values at these three locations are significantly correlated with convection in the estimated source regions and along transport paths. These results suggest that upstream convection, rather than moisture source change, causes interannual variation in ASM precipitation δ18O values. Contrasting values of the ASMOI in El Niño and La Niña years reveal a positive isotope-El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response (e.g., high values corresponding to warm phases), which we interpret as a response to changes in regional convection. We show that the isotope-ENSO response is amplified at high elevation sites and during La Niña years. These findings should improve interpretations of paleo-δ18O data as a proxy for past ASM variation and provide new opportunities to use data from this region to study paleo-ENSO activity.

  9. Zonally resolved impact of ENSO on the stratospheric circulation and water vapor entry values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konopka, Paul; Ploeger, Felix; Tao, Mengchu; Riese, Martin

    2016-10-01

    Based on simulations with the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS) for the period 1979-2013, with model transport driven by the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis, we discuss the impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the variability of the dynamics, water vapor, ozone, and mean age of air (AoA) in the tropical lower stratosphere during boreal winter. Our zonally resolved analysis at the 390 K potential temperature level reveals that not only (deseasonalized) ENSO-related temperature anomalies are confined to the tropical Pacific (180-300°E) but also anomalous wave propagation and breaking, as quantified in terms of the Eliassen-Palm (EP) flux divergence, with strongest local contribution during the La Niña phase. This anomaly is coherent with respective anomalies of water vapor (±0.5 ppmv) and ozone (±100 ppbv) derived from CLaMS being in excellent agreement with the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder observations. Thus, during El Niño a more zonally symmetric wave forcing drives a deep branch of the Brewer-Dobson (BD) circulation. During La Niña this forcing increases at lower levels (≈390 K) over the tropical Pacific, likely influencing the shallow branch of the BD circulation. In agreement with previous studies, wet (dry) and young (old) tape recorder anomalies propagate upward in the subsequent months following El Niño (La Niña). Using CLaMS, these anomalies are found to be around +0.3 (-0.2) ppmv and -4 (+4) months for water vapor and AoA, respectively. The AoA ENSO anomaly is more strongly affected by the residual circulation (≈2/3) than by eddy mixing (≈1/3).

  10. Tracking ENSO with tropical trees: Progress in stable isotope dendroclimatology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, M. N.; Poussart, P. F.; Saleska, S. R.; Schrag, D. P.

    2002-12-01

    The terrestrial tropics remain an important gap in the growing proxy network used to characterize past ENSO behavior. Here we describe a strategy for development of proxy estimates of paleo-ENSO, via proxy rainfall estimates derived from stable isotope (δ18O) measurements made on tropical trees. The approach applies a new model of oxygen isotopic composition of alpha-cellulose (Roden et al., 2000), a rapid method for cellulose extraction from raw wood (Brendel et al., 2000), and continuous flow isotope ratio mass spectrometry (Brand, 1996) to develop proxy chronological, rainfall and growth rate estimates from tropical trees, even those lacking annual rings. The promise and pitfalls of the approach are illustrated in pilot datasets from the US, Costa Rica, Brazil, and Peru, which show isotopic cycles of 4-6 per mil, and interannual anomalies of up to 8 per mil. Together with the mature ENSO proxies (corals, extratropical tree-rings, varved sediments, and ice cores), replicated and well-dated stable isotope chronologies from tropical trees may eventually improve our understanding of ENSO history over the past several hundred years.

  11. Understanding ENSO dynamics through the exploration of past climates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phipps, Steven J; Brown, Jaclyn N

    2010-01-01

    The palaeoclimate record shows that significant changes in ENSO characteristics took place during the Holocene. Exploring these changes, using both data and models, provides a means of understanding ENSO dynamics. Previous modelling studies have suggested a mechanism whereby changes in the Earth's orbital geometry explain the strengthening of ENSO over the Holocene. Decreasing summer insolation over the Asian landmass resulted in a weakening of the Asian monsoon system. This led to a weakening of the easterly trade winds in the western Pacific, creating conditions more favourable for El Nino development. To explore this hypothesised forcing mechanism, we use a climate system model to conduct a suite of simulations of the climate of the past 8,000 years. In the early Holocene, we find that the Asian summer monsoon system is intensified, resulting in an amplification of the easterly trade winds in the western Pacific. The stronger trade winds represent a barrier to the eastward propagation of westerly wind bursts, therefore inhibiting the onset of El Nino events. The fundamental behaviour of ENSO remains unchanged, with the major change over the Holocene being the influence of the background state of the Pacific on the susceptibility of the ocean to the initiation of El Nino events.

  12. The complex influence of ENSO on droughts in Ecuador

    KAUST Repository

    Vicente-Serrano, S. M.; Aguilar, E.; Martí nez, R.; Martí n-Herná ndez, N.; Azorin-Molina, C.; Sanchez-Lorenzo, A.; El Kenawy, Ahmed M.; Tomá s-Burguera, M.; Moran-Tejeda, E.; Ló pez-Moreno, J. I.; Revuelto, J.; Beguerí a, S.; Nieto, J. J.; Drumond, A.; Gimeno, L.; Nieto, R.

    2016-01-01

    of precipitation and air temperature by means of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. In addition, the propagation of two different ENSO indices (El Niño 3.4 and El Niño 1 + 2 indices) and other atmospheric circulation processes (e.g., vertical

  13. Tree-ring analysis of winter climate variability and ENSO in Mediterranean California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woodhouse, C.A.; Univ. of Colorado, Boulder

    2006-01-01

    The feasibility of using tree-ring data as a proxy for regional precipitation and ENSO events in the Mediterranean region of California is explored. A transect of moisture-sensitive tree-ring sites, extending from southwestern to north-central California, documents regional patterns of winter precipitation and replicates the regional response to ENSO events in the 20. century. Proxy records of ENSO were used with the tree-ring data to examine precipitation/ENSO patterns in the 18. and 19. centuries. Results suggest some temporal and spatial variability in the regional precipitation response to ENSO over the last three centuries

  14. El ciclo anual de la hidrología de Colombia en relación con el ENSO y la NAO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available INFLUENCE DE L’ENSO ET DE LA NAO SUR LE CYCLE ANNUEL DE L’HYDROLOGIE DE COLOMBIE. On évalue l’impact de El Niño-Oscillation du Sud (ENSO et de l’Oscillation de l’Atlantique Nord (NAO sur le cycle annuel hydrologique colombien. Les résultats du Projet de Réanalyse Climatologique NCEP/NCAR ont été utilisés pour identifier les mécanismes de la circulation atmosphérique qui interviennent dans cette région au cours des phases extrêmes de l’ENSO. En particulier, l’affaiblissement du courant jet inférieur d’ouest, qui se propage du Pacifique vers l’intérieur de la Colombie, est l’un des principaux mécanismes de circulation susceptible de nous aider à expliquer les anomalies hydrologiques en situation El Niño. Les résultats confirment l’importance de l’influence de l’ENSO et de la NAO sur les précipitations et les débits de Colombie, en particulier au cours des trimestres de septembre-octobre-novembre et de décembre-janvier-février. Se cuantifica la dependencia del ciclo anual de la hidroclimatología de Colombia con respecto del fenómeno El Niño-Oscilación del Sur (ENSO y la Oscilación del Atlántico Norte (NAO. Se usan los resultados del Proyecto de Reanálisis Climático de NCEP/NCAR para identificar los mecanismos de la circulación involucrados en las anomalías climáticas en la región de Suramérica tropical durante las fases extremas del ENSO (El Niño y La Niña. De particular importancia, el debilitamiento, durante El Niño, de la corriente de chorro superficial del oeste que penetra desde el Océano Pacífico hacia el interior de Colombia es un mecanismo de la circulación que coadyuva para explicar las anomalías hidrológicas. Los resultados confirman la fuerte influencia del ENSO y la NAO sobre las lluvias y los caudales de Colombia, en particular durante los trimestres septiembre-octubre-noviembre y diciembre-enero-febrero. THE ANNUAL CYCLE OF THE HYDROLOGY IN COLOMBIA IN RELATION TO THE ENSO AND NAO

  15. The impact of combined ENSO and PDO on the PNA climate: a 1,000-year climate modeling study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu, B. [Environment Canada, Climate Data and Analysis Section, Climate Research Division, Toronto, ON (Canada); Zwiers, F.W. [Environment Canada, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Climate Research Division, Victoria (Canada)

    2007-12-15

    This study analyzes the atmospheric response to the combined Pacific interannual ENSO and decadal-interdecadal PDO variability, with a focus on the Pacific-North American (PNA) sector, using a 1,000-year long integration of the Canadian Center for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) coupled climate model. Both the tropospheric circulation and the North American temperature suggest an enhanced PNA-like climate response and impacts on North America when ENSO and PDO variability are in phase. The anomalies of the centers of action for the PNA-like pattern are significantly different from zero and the anomaly pattern is field significant. In association with the stationary wave anomalies, large stationary wave activity fluxes appear in the mid-high latitudes originating from the North Pacific and flowing downstream toward North America. There are significant Rossby wave source anomalies in the extratropical North Pacific and in the subtropical North Pacific. In addition, the axis of the Pacific storm track shifts southward with the positive PNA. Atmospheric heating anomalies associated with ENSO variability are confined primarily to the tropics. There is an anomalous heating center over the northeast Pacific, together with anomalies with the same polarity in the tropical Pacific, for the PDO variability. The in-phase combination of ENSO and PDO would in turn provide anomalous atmospheric energy transports towards North America from both the Tropical Pacific and the North Pacific, which tends to favor the occurrence of stationary wave anomalies and would lead to a PNA-like wave anomaly structure. The modeling results also confirm our analysis based on the observational record in the twentieth century. (orig.)

  16. Dynamics of the Indian monsoon and ENSO relationships in the SINTEX global coupled model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Terray, P. [LODYC, Paris (France); Universite Paris 7, Paris (France); Guilyardi, E. [LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette (France); CGAM, Reading (United Kingdom); Fischer, A.S. [LODYC, Paris (France); Delecluse, P. [LODYC, Paris (France); LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette (France)

    2005-02-01

    This paper uses recent gridded climatological data and a coupled general circulation model (GCM) simulation in order to assess the relationships between the interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The focus is on the dynamics of the ISM-ENSO relationships and the ability of the state-of-the-art coupled GCM to reproduce the complex lead-lag relationships between the ISM and the ENSO. The coupled GCM is successful in reproducing the ISM circulation and rainfall climatology in the Indian areas even though the entire ISM circulation is weaker relative to that observed. In both observations and in the simulation, the ISM rainfall anomalies are significantly associated with fluctuations of the Hadley circulation and the 200 hPa zonal wind anomalies over the Indian Ocean. A quasi-biennial time scale is found to structure the ISM dynamical and rainfall indices in both cases. Moreover, ISM indices have a similar interannual variability in the simulation and observations. The coupled model is less successful in simulating the annual cycle in the tropical Pacific. Despite some problems in simulation of the annual cycle and the Southern Oscillation, the coupled model captures some aspects of the interannual variability in the tropical Pacific. ENSO events are phase-locked with the annual cycle as observed, but are of reduced amplitude relative to the observations. Wavelet analysis of the model Nino34 time series shows enhanced power in the 2-4 year band, as compared to the 2-8 year range for observations during the 1950-2000 period. The ISM circulation is weakened during ENSO years in both the simulation and the observations. However, the model fails to reproduce the lead-lag relationship between the ISM and Nino34 sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Furthermore, lag correlations show that the delayed response of the wind stress over the central Pacific to ISM variability is insignificant in the simulation. These

  17. Enthalpy of phase transition and prediction of phase Equilibria in systems of glycols and glycol ethers

    OpenAIRE

    Esina, Zoya; Miroshnikov, Aleksandr; Korchuganova, Margarita

    2014-01-01

    The PCEAS model was used to study the liquid-solid and liquid-vapor phase transitions at constant pressure in systems containing glycols and glycol ethers. This method is based on minimizing the excess Gibbs energy over the solvation parameter, which takes into account the processes of association of molecules in various phases. To compute the diagrams, the data on enthalpy and phase transition temperatures of pure components are required, while the information about the interactions in the b...

  18. Sensitivity of inflationary predictions to pre-inflationary phases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bahrami, Sina; Flanagan, Éanna É., E-mail: sb933@cornell.edu, E-mail: eef3@cornell.edu [Department of Physics, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853 (United States)

    2016-01-01

    How sensitive are the predictions of inflation to pre-inflationary conditions when the number of efolds of inflation is not too large? In an attempt to address this question, we consider a simple model where the inflationary era is preceded by an era dominated by a radiation fluid, which is coupled to the inflaton only gravitationally and which extends back to the Planck era. We show that there is a natural generalized Bunch-Davies vacuum state for perturbations to the coupled inflaton-gravity-fluid system at early times. With this choice of initial state the model predicts interesting deviations from the standard power spectrum of single field slow-roll inflation at large scales. However, the deviations are too small to be observable in near future CMB observations.

  19. Sensitivity of inflationary predictions to pre-inflationary phases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bahrami, Sina; Flanagan, Éanna É. [Department of Physics, Cornell University,Ithaca, NY 14853 (United States)

    2016-01-15

    How sensitive are the predictions of inflation to pre-inflationary conditions when the number of efolds of inflation is not too large? In an attempt to address this question, we consider a simple model where the inflationary era is preceded by an era dominated by a radiation fluid, which is coupled to the inflaton only gravitationally and which extends back to the Planck era. We show that there is a natural generalized Bunch-Davies vacuum state for perturbations to the coupled inflaton-gravity-fluid system at early times. With this choice of initial state the model predicts interesting deviations from the standard power spectrum of single field slow-roll inflation at large scales. However, the deviations are too small to be observable in near future CMB observations.

  20. Evolution of ENSO-related rainfall anomalies in Southeast Asia region and its relationship with atmosphere-ocean variations in Indo-Pacific sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Juneng, Liew; Tangang, Fredolin T. [Technology National University of Malaysia, Marine Science Program, School of Environmental and Natural Resource Sciences, Bangi Selangor (Malaysia)

    2005-09-01

    The Southeast Asia rainfall (SEAR) anomalies depend strongly on phases of El Nino (La Nina). Using an extended empirical orthogonal function (EEOF) analysis, it is shown that the dominant EEOF mode of SEAR anomalies evolves northeastward throughout a period from the summer when El Nino develops to spring the following year when the event weakens. This evolution is consistent with northeastward migration of the ENSO-related anomalous out going radiation field. During boreal summer (winter), the strong ENSO-related anomaly tends to reside in regions south (north) of the equator. The evolution of dominant mode of SEAR anomalies is in tandem with the evolution of ENSO-related sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. The strengthening and weakening of ''boomerang-shaped'' SST in western Pacific, the changing sign of anomalous SST in Java Sea and the warming in Indian Ocean and South China Sea are all part of ENSO-related changes and all are linked to SEAR anomaly. The anomalous low-level circulation associated with ENSO-related SEAR anomaly indicates the strengthening and weakening of two off-equatorial anticyclones, one over the Southern Indian Ocean and the other over the western North Pacific. Together with patterns of El Nino minus La Nina composites of various fields, it is proposed that the northeastward evolution of SEAR anomaly is basically part of the large-scale eastward evolution of ENSO-related signal in the Indo-Pacific sector. The atmosphere-ocean interaction plays an important role in this evolution. (orig.)

  1. Prediction of two-phase choked-flow through safety valves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnulfo, G; Bertani, C; De Salve, M

    2014-01-01

    Different models of two-phase choked flow through safety valves are applied in order to evaluate their capabilities of prediction in different thermal-hydraulic conditions. Experimental data available in the literature for two-phase fluid and subcooled liquid upstream the safety valve have been compared with the models predictions. Both flashing flows and non-flashing flows of liquid and incondensable gases have been considered. The present paper shows that for flashing flows good predictions are obtained by using the two-phase valve discharge coefficient defined by Lenzing and multiplying it by the critical flow rate in an ideal nozzle evaluated by either Omega Method or the Homogeneous Non-equilibrium Direct Integration. In case of non-flashing flows of water and air, Leung/Darby formulation of the two-phase valve discharge coefficient together with the Omega Method is more suitable to the prediction of flow rate.

  2. High performance predictive current control of a three phase VSI: An ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    ... current control of a three phase VSI: An experimental assessment ... Voltage source inverter; two level inverter; predictive current control; weighting factor ... Conventionally, for reference current tracking control in a two level VSI, the objective ...

  3. Extreme Environment Damage Index and Accumulation Model for CMC Laminate Fatigue Life Prediction, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Materials Research & Design (MR&D) is proposing in the SBIR Phase II an effort to develop a tool for predicting the fatigue life of C/SiC composite...

  4. Occurence and prediction of sigma phase in fuel cladding alloys for breeder reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anantatmula, R.P.

    1982-01-01

    In sodium-cooled fast reactor systems, fuel cladding materials will be exposed for several thousand hours to liquid sodium. Satisfactory performance of the materials depends in part on the sodium compatibility and phase stability of the materials. This paper mainly deals with the phase stability aspect, with particular emphasis on sigma phase formation of the cladding materials upon extended exposures to liquid sodium. A new method of predicting sigma phase formation is proposed for austenitic stainless steels and predictions are compared with the experimental results on fuel cladding materials. Excellent agreement is obtained between theory and experiment. The new method is different from the empirical methods suggested for superalloys and does not suffer from the same drawbacks. The present method uses the Fe-Cr-Ni ternary phase diagram for predicting the sigma-forming tendencies and exhibits a wide range of applicability to austenitic stainless steels and heat-resistant Fe-Cr-Ni alloys

  5. Prediction of phase equilibria in the In–Sb–Pb system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DUSKO MINIC

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Binary thermodynamic data, successfully used for phase diagram calculations of the binary systems In–Sb, Pb–Sb and In–Pb, were used for the prediction of the phase equilibria in the ternary In–Sb–Pb system. The predicted equilibrium phase diagram of the vertical Pb–InSb section was compared with the results of differential thermal analysis DTA and optical microscopy. The calculated phase diagram of the isothermal section at 300 °C was compared with the experimentally (SEM, EDX determined composition of phases in the chosen alloys after annealing. Very good agreement between the binary-based thermodynamic prediction and the experimental data was found in all cases. The calculated liquidus projection of the ternary In–Sb–Pb system is also presented.

  6. Menstrual cycle phase does not predict political conservatism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Isabel M; Pound, Nicholas

    2015-01-01

    Recent authors have reported a relationship between women's fertility status, as indexed by menstrual cycle phase, and conservatism in moral, social and political values. We conducted a survey to test for the existence of a relationship between menstrual cycle day and conservatism. 2213 women reporting regular menstrual cycles provided data about their political views. Of these women, 2208 provided information about their cycle date, 1260 provided additional evidence of reliability in self-reported cycle date, and of these, 750 also indicated an absence of hormonal disruptors such as recent hormonal contraception use, breastfeeding or pregnancy. Cycle day was used to estimate day-specific fertility rate (probability of conception); political conservatism was measured via direct self-report and via responses to the "Moral Foundations" questionnaire. We also recorded relationship status, which has been reported to interact with menstrual cycle phase in determining political preferences. We found no evidence of a relationship between estimated cyclical fertility changes and conservatism, and no evidence of an interaction between relationship status and cyclical fertility in determining political attitudes. Our findings were robust to multiple inclusion/exclusion criteria and to different methods of estimating fertility and measuring conservatism. In summary, the relationship between cycle-linked reproductive parameters and conservatism may be weaker or less reliable than previously thought.

  7. Menstrual cycle phase does not predict political conservatism.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabel M Scott

    Full Text Available Recent authors have reported a relationship between women's fertility status, as indexed by menstrual cycle phase, and conservatism in moral, social and political values. We conducted a survey to test for the existence of a relationship between menstrual cycle day and conservatism. 2213 women reporting regular menstrual cycles provided data about their political views. Of these women, 2208 provided information about their cycle date, 1260 provided additional evidence of reliability in self-reported cycle date, and of these, 750 also indicated an absence of hormonal disruptors such as recent hormonal contraception use, breastfeeding or pregnancy. Cycle day was used to estimate day-specific fertility rate (probability of conception; political conservatism was measured via direct self-report and via responses to the "Moral Foundations" questionnaire. We also recorded relationship status, which has been reported to interact with menstrual cycle phase in determining political preferences. We found no evidence of a relationship between estimated cyclical fertility changes and conservatism, and no evidence of an interaction between relationship status and cyclical fertility in determining political attitudes. Our findings were robust to multiple inclusion/exclusion criteria and to different methods of estimating fertility and measuring conservatism. In summary, the relationship between cycle-linked reproductive parameters and conservatism may be weaker or less reliable than previously thought.

  8. Impacts of the Tropical Pacific Cold Tongue Mode on ENSO Diversity Under Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yang; Li, Jianping; Zhang, Wenjun; Chen, Quanliang; Feng, Juan; Zheng, Fei; Wang, Wei; Zhou, Xin

    2017-11-01

    The causes of ENSO diversity, although being of great interest in recent research, do not have a consistent explanation. This study provides a possible mechanism focused on the background change of the tropical Pacific as a response to global warming. The second empirical orthogonal function mode of the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the tropical Pacific, namely the cold tongue mode (CTM), represents the background change of the tropical Pacific under global warming. Using composite analysis with surface observations and subsurface ocean assimilation data sets, we find ENSO spatial structure diversity is closely associated with the CTM. A positive CTM tends to cool the SST in the eastern equatorial Pacific and warm the SST outside, as well as widen (narrow) zonal and meridional scales for El Niño (La Niña), and vice versa. Particularly in the positive CTM phase, the air-sea action center of El Niño moves west, resembling the spatial pattern of CP-El Niño. This westward shift of center is related to the weakened Bjerknes feedback (BF) intensity by the CTM. By suppressing the SSTA growth of El Niño in the eastern equatorial Pacific, the CTM contributes to more frequent occurrence of CP-El Niño under global warming.

  9. A New Technique to Observe ENSO Activity via Ground-Based GPS Receivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suparta, Wayan; Iskandar, Ahmad; Singh, Mandeep Singh Jit

    In an attempt to study the effects of global climate change in the tropics for improving global climate model, this paper aims to detect the ENSO events, especially El Nino phase by using ground-based GPS receivers. Precipitable water vapor (PWV) obtained from the Global Positioning System (GPS) Meteorology measurements in line with the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTa) are used to connect their response to El Niño activity. The data gathered from four selected stations over the Southeast Asia, namely PIMO (Philippines), KUAL (Malaysia), NTUS (Singapore) and BAKO (Indonesia) for the year of 2009/2010 were processed. A strong correlation was observed for PIMO station with a correlation coefficient of -0.90, significantly at the 99 % confidence level. In general, the relationship between GPS PWV and SSTa at all stations on a weekly basis showed with a negative correlation. The negative correlation indicates that during the El Niño event, the PWV variation was in decreased trend. Decreased trend of PWV value is caused by a dry season that affected the GPS signals in the ocean-atmospheric coupling. Based on these promising results, we can propose that the ground-based GPS receiver is capable used to monitor ENSO activity and this is a new prospective method that previously unexplored.

  10. Numerical predictions of particle dispersed two-phase flows, using the LSD and SSF models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avila, R.; Cervantes de Gortari, J.; Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico City. Facultad de Ingenieria)

    1988-01-01

    A modified version of a numerical scheme which is suitable to predict parabolic dispersed two-phase flow, is presented. The original version of this scheme was used to predict the test cases discussed during the 3rd workshop on TPF predictions in Belgrade, 1986. In this paper, two particle dispersion models are included which use the Lagrangian approach predicting test case 1 and 3 of the 4th workshop. For the prediction of test case 1 the Lagrangian Stochastic Deterministic model (LSD) is used providing acceptable good results of mean and turbulent quantities for both solid and gas phases; however, the computed void fraction distribution is not in agreement with the measurements at locations away from the inlet, especially near the walls. Test case 3 is predicted using both the LSD and the Stochastic Separated Flow (SSF) models. It was found that the effects of turbulence modulation are large when the LSD model is used, whereas the particles have a negligible influence on the continuous phase if the SSF model is utilized for the computations. Predictions of gas phase properties based on both models agree well with measurements; however, the agreement between calculated and measured solid phase properties is less satisfactory. (orig.)

  11. Predicting Catastrophic Phase Inversion on the Basis of Droplet Coalescence Kinetics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vaessen, G.E.J.; Visschers, M.; Stein, H.N.

    1996-01-01

    A predictive model for catastrophic phase inversion, based on the kinetics of droplet breakup and coalescence, is presented here. Two inversion mechanisms can be distinguished, depending on the direction of the phase inversion process. With the surfactant predominantly present in the dispersed

  12. Investigation of hydrological variability in the Korean Peninsula with the ENSO teleconnections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Yoon

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzes nonlinear behavior links with atmospheric teleconnections between hydrologic variables and climate indices using statistical models during warm season (June to September over the Korean Peninsula (KP. The ocean-related major climate factor, which is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO was used to analyze the atmospheric teleconnections by principal component analysis (PCA and a singular spectrum analysis (SSA. The nonlinear lag time correlations between climate indices and hydrologic variables are calculated by Mutual Information (MI technique. The nonlinear correlation coefficients (CCs by MI were higher than linear CCs, and ENSO shows a few months of lag time correlation. The warm season hydrologic variables in KP shows a significant increasing tendency during the warm pool (WP, and the cold tongue (CT El Niño decaying years shows a significant decreasing tendency, while the La Niña year shows slightly above normal conditions, respectively. A better understanding of the relationship between climate indices and streamflow, and their local impacts can help to prepare for the river discharge management by water managers and scientists. Furthermore, these results provide useful data for policy makers and end-users to support long-range water resources prediction and water-related policy.

  13. Impacts of winter NPO on subsequent winter ENSO: sensitivity to the definition of NPO index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shangfeng; Wu, Renguang

    2018-01-01

    This study investigates the linkage between boreal winter North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and subsequent winter El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) based on seven different NPO indices. Results show that the influence of winter NPO on the subsequent winter El Niño is sensitive to how the NPO is defined. A significant NPO-El Niño connection is obtained when the NPO-related anomalous cyclone over the subtropical North Pacific extends to near-equatorial regions. The anomalous cyclone induces warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies through modulating surface heat fluxes. These warm SST anomalies are able to maintain into the following spring and summer through an air-sea coupled process and in turn induce significant westerly wind anomalies over the tropical western Pacific. In contrast, the NPO-El Niño relationship is unclear when the NPO-related anomalous cyclone over the subtropical North Pacific is confined to off-equatorial regions and cannot induce significant warm SST anomalies over the subtropical North Pacific. The present study suggests that definitions of NPO should be taken into account when using NPO to predict ENSO. In particular, we recommend defining the NPO index based on the empirical orthogonal function technique over appropriate region that does not extend too far north.

  14. Effect of Modulation of ENSO by Decadal and Multidecadal Ocean-Atmospheric Oscillations on Continental US Streamflows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, S.; Abebe, A.; Srivastava, P.; Chaubey, I.

    2017-12-01

    Evaluation of the influences of individual and coupled oceanic-atmospheric oscillations on streamflow at a regional scale in the United States is the focus of this study. The main climatic oscillations considered in this study are: El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Unimpacted or minimally impacted by water management streamflow data from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) were used in this study. Two robust and novel non-parametric tests, namely, the rank based partial least square (PLS) and the Joint Rank Fit (JRFit) procedures were used to identify the individual and coupled effect of oscillations on streamflow across continental U.S. (CONUS), respectively. Moreover, the interactive effects of ENSO with decadal and multidecadal cycles were tested and quantified using the JRFit interaction test. The analysis of ENSO indicated higher streamflows during La Niña phase compared to the El Niño phase in Northwest, Northeast and the lower part of Ohio Valley while the opposite occurs for rest of the climatic regions in US. Two distinct climate regions (Northwest and Southeast) were identified from the PDO analysis where PDO negative phase results in increased streamflow than PDO positive phase. Consistent negative and positive correlated regions around the CONUS were identified for AMO and NAO, respectively. The interaction test of ENSO with decadal and multidecadal oscillations showed that El Niño is modulated by the negative phase of PDO and NAO, and the positive phase of AMO, respectively, in the Upper Midwest. However, La Niña is modulated by the positive phase of AMO and PDO in Ohio Valley and Northeast while in Southeast and the South it is modulated by AMO negative phase. Results of this study will assist water managers to understand the streamflow change patterns across the CONUS at decadal and multi-decadal time scales. The

  15. A High-Resolution ENSO-Driven Rainfall Record Derived From an Exceptionally Fast Growing Stalagmite From Niue Island (South Pacific)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Troy, S.; Aharon, P.; Lambert, W. J.

    2012-12-01

    El Niño-Southern Oscillation's (ENSO) dominant control over the present global climate and its unpredictable response to a global warming makes the study of paleo-ENSO important. So far corals, spanning the Tropical Pacific Ocean, are the most commonly used geological archives of paleo-ENSO. This is because corals typically exhibit high growth rates (>1 cm/yr), and reproduce reliably surface water temperatures at sub-annual resolution. However there are limitations to coral archives because their time span is relatively brief (in the order of centuries), thus far making a long and continuous ENSO record difficult to achieve. On the other hand stalagmites from island settings can offer long and continuous records of ENSO-driven rainfall. Niue Island caves offer an unusual opportunity to investigate ENSO-driven paleo-rainfall because the island is isolated from other large land masses, making it untainted by continental climate artifacts, and its geographical location is within the Tropical Pacific "rain pool" (South Pacific Convergence Zone; SPCZ) that makes the rainfall variability particularly sensitive to the ENSO phase switches. We present here a δ18O and δ13C time series from a stalagmite sampled on Niue Island (19°00' S, 169°50' W) that exhibits exceptionally high growth rates (~1.2 mm/yr) thus affording a resolution comparable to corals but for much longer time spans. A precise chronology, dating back to several millennia, was achieved by U/Th dating of the stalagmite. The stalagmite was sampled using a Computer Automated Mill (CAM) at 300 μm increments in order to receive sub-annual resolution (every 3 months) and calcite powders of 50-100 μg weight were analyzed for δ18O and δ13C using a Continuous Flow Isotope Ratio Mass Spectrometer (CF-IRMS). The isotope time series contains variable shifts at seasonal, inter-annual, and inter-decadal periodicities. The δ13C and δ18O yield ranges of -3.0 to -13.0 (‰ VPDB) and -3.2 to -6.2 (‰ VPDB

  16. Modulation of the SSTA decadal variation on ENSO events and relationships of SSTA With LOD,SOI, etc

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, D. C.; Zhou, Y. H.; Liao, X. H.

    2007-01-01

    Interannual and decadal components of the length of day (LOD), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and Sea Surface Temperature anomaly (SSTA) in Nino regions are extracted by band-pass filtering, and used for research of the modulation of the SSTA on the ENSO events. Results show that besides the interannual components, the decadal components in SSTA have strong impacts on monitoring and representing of the ENSO events. When the ENSO events are strong, the modulation of the decadal components of the SSTA tends to prolong the life-time of the events and enlarge the extreme anomalies of the SST, while the ENSO events, which are so weak that they can not be detected by the interannual components of the SSTA, can also be detected with the help of the modulation of the SSTA decadal components. The study further draws attention to the relationships of the SSTA interannual and decadal components with those of LOD, SOI, both of the sea level pressure anomalies (SLPA) and the trade wind anomalies (TWA) in tropic Pacific, and also with those of the axial components of the atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) and oceanic angular momentum (OAM). Results of the squared coherence and coherent phases among them reveal close connections with the SSTA and almost all of the parameters mentioned above on the interannual time scales, while on the decadal time scale significant connections are among the SSTA and SOI, SLPA, TWA, ?3w and ?3w+v as well, and slight weaker connections between the SSTA and LOD, ?3pib and ?3bp

  17. ENSO surface longwave radiation forcing over the tropical Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. G. Pavlakis

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available We have studied the spatial and temporal variation of the surface longwave radiation (downwelling and net over a 21-year period in the tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean (40 S–40 N, 90 E–75 W. The fluxes were computed using a deterministic model for atmospheric radiation transfer, along with satellite data from the ISCCP-D2 database and reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR (acronyms explained in main text, for the key atmospheric and surface input parameters. An excellent correlation was found between the downwelling longwave radiation (DLR anomaly and the Niño-3.4 index time-series, over the Niño-3.4 region located in the central Pacific. A high anti-correlation was also found over the western Pacific (15–0 S, 105–130 E. There is convincing evidence that the time series of the mean downwelling longwave radiation anomaly in the western Pacific precedes that in the Niño-3.4 region by 3–4 months. Thus, the downwelling longwave radiation anomaly is a complementary index to the SST anomaly for the study of ENSO events and can be used to asses whether or not El Niño or La Niña conditions prevail. Over the Niño-3.4 region, the mean DLR anomaly values range from +20 Wm−2 during El Niño episodes to −20 Wm−2 during La Niña events, while over the western Pacific (15–0 S, 105–130 E these values range from −15 Wm−2 to +10 Wm−2, respectively. The long- term average (1984–2004 distribution of the net downwelling longwave radiation at the surface over the tropical and subtropical Pacific for the three month period November-December-January shows a net thermal cooling of the ocean surface. When El Niño conditions prevail, the thermal radiative cooling in the central and south-eastern tropical Pacific becomes weaker by 10 Wm−2 south of the equator in the central Pacific (7–0 S, 160–120 W for the three-month period of NDJ, because the DLR increase is larger than the increase in surface thermal emission. In contrast, the

  18. HIGH PRESSURE PHASE EQUILIBRIUM: PREDICTION OF ESSENTIAL OIL SOLUBILITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lúcio CARDOZO-FILHO

    1997-12-01

    Full Text Available This work describes a method to predict the solubility of essential oils in supercritical carbon dioxide. The method is based on the formulation proposed in 1979 by Asselineau, Bogdanic and Vidal. The Peng-Robinson and Soave-Redlich-Kwong cubic equations of state were used with the van der Waals mixing rules with two interaction parameters. Method validation was accomplished calculating orange essential oil solubility in pressurized carbon dioxide. The solubility of orange essential oil in carbon dioxide calculated at 308.15 K for pressures of 50 to 70 bar varied from 1.7± 0.1 to 3.6± 0.1 mg/g. For same the range of conditions, experimental solubility varied from 1.7± 0.1 to 3.6± 0.1 mg/g. Predicted values were not very sensitive to initial oil composition.Este trabalho descreve uma metodologia para o cálculo da solubilidade de óleos essenciais em dióxido de carbono a altas pressões baseada na formulação proposta em 1979 por Asselineau, Bogdanic e Vidal. Foram utilizadas as equações cúbicas de estado de Peng-Robinson e Soave-Redlich-Kwong com regras de mistura de van der Waals com dois parâmetros de interação. O cálculo da solubilidade do óleo essencial de laranja em dióxido de carbono pressurizado foi usado para validação do método. A solubilidade calculada a 308,15 K para pressões entre 50 e 70 bar variou entre 1,5 e 4,1 mg/g. Valores experimentais para as mesmas condições variam entre 1,7± 0.1 a 3,6± 0.1 mg/g. Os valores preditos não são muito sensíveis à composição inicial do óleo essencial.

  19. High-Resolution Modeling of ENSO-Induced Precipitation in the Tropical Andes: Implications for Proxy Interpretation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiefer, J.; Karamperidou, C.

    2017-12-01

    Clastic sediment flux into high-elevation Andean lakes is controlled by glacial processes and soil erosion caused by high precipitation events, making these lakes suitable archives of past climate. To wit, sediment records from Laguna Pallcacocha in Ecuador have been interpreted as proxies of ENSO variability, owing to increased precipitation in the greater region during El Niño events. However, the location of the lake's watershed, the presence of glaciers, and the different impacts of ENSO on precipitation in the eastern vs western Andes have challenged the suitability of the Pallcacocha record as an ENSO proxy. Here, we employ WRF, a high-resolution regional mesoscale weather prediction model, to investigate the circulation dynamics, sources of moisture, and resulting precipitation response in the L. Pallcacocha region during different flavors of El Niño and La Niña events, and in the presence or absence of ice caps. In patricular, we investigate Eastern Pacific (EP), Central Pacific (CP), coastal El Niño, and La Niña events. We validate the model simulations against spatially interpolated station measurements and reanalysis data. We find that during EP events, moisture is primarily advected from the Pacific, whereas during CP events, moisture primarily originates from the Atlantic. More moisture is available during EP events, which implies higher precipitation rates. Furthermore, we find that precipitation during EP events is mostly non-convective in contrast to primarily convective precipitation during CP events. Finally, a synthesis of the sedimentary record and the EP:CP ratio of accumulated precipitation and specific humidity in the L. Pallcacocha region allows us to assess whether past changes in the relative frequency of the two ENSO flavors may have been recorded in paleoclimate archives in this region.

  20. Lepton mixing predictions including Majorana phases from Δ(6n2 flavour symmetry and generalised CP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen F. King

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Generalised CP transformations are the only known framework which allows to predict Majorana phases in a flavour model purely from symmetry. For the first time generalised CP transformations are investigated for an infinite series of finite groups, Δ(6n2=(Zn×Zn⋊S3. In direct models the mixing angles and Dirac CP phase are solely predicted from symmetry. The Δ(6n2 flavour symmetry provides many examples of viable predictions for mixing angles. For all groups the mixing matrix has a trimaximal middle column and the Dirac CP phase is 0 or π. The Majorana phases are predicted from residual flavour and CP symmetries where α21 can take several discrete values for each n and the Majorana phase α31 is a multiple of π. We discuss constraints on the groups and CP transformations from measurements of the neutrino mixing angles and from neutrinoless double-beta decay and find that predictions for mixing angles and all phases are accessible to experiments in the near future.

  1. Lepton mixing predictions including Majorana phases from Δ(6n2) flavour symmetry and generalised CP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King, Stephen F.; Neder, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    Generalised CP transformations are the only known framework which allows to predict Majorana phases in a flavour model purely from symmetry. For the first time generalised CP transformations are investigated for an infinite series of finite groups, Δ(6n 2 )=(Z n ×Z n )⋊S 3 . In direct models the mixing angles and Dirac CP phase are solely predicted from symmetry. The Δ(6n 2 ) flavour symmetry provides many examples of viable predictions for mixing angles. For all groups the mixing matrix has a trimaximal middle column and the Dirac CP phase is 0 or π. The Majorana phases are predicted from residual flavour and CP symmetries where α 21 can take several discrete values for each n and the Majorana phase α 31 is a multiple of π. We discuss constraints on the groups and CP transformations from measurements of the neutrino mixing angles and from neutrinoless double-beta decay and find that predictions for mixing angles and all phases are accessible to experiments in the near future

  2. Importance of the gas phase role to the prediction of energetic material behavior: An experimental study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, A.N.; Son, S.F.; Asay, B.W.; Sander, R.K.

    2005-01-01

    Various thermal (radiative, conductive, and convective) initiation experiments are performed to demonstrate the importance of the gas phase role in combustion modeling of energetic materials (EM). A previously published condensed phase model that includes a predicted critical irradiance above which ignition is not possible is compared to experimental laser ignition results for octahydro-1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazocine (HMX) and 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene (TNT). Experimental results conflict with the predicted critical irradiance concept. The failure of the model is believed to result from a misconception about the role of the gas phase in the ignition process of energetic materials. The model assumes that ignition occurs at the surface and that evolution of gases inhibits ignition. High speed video of laser ignition, oven cook-off and hot wire ignition experiments captures the ignition of HMX and TNT in the gas phase. A laser ignition gap test is performed to further evaluate the effect of gas phase laser absorption and gas phase disruption on the ignition process. Results indicate that gas phase absorption of the laser energy is probably not the primary factor governing the gas phase ignition observations. It is discovered that a critical gap between an HMX pellet and a salt window of 6 mm±0.4 mm exists below which ignition by CO 2 laser is not possible at the tested irradiances of 29 W/cm 2 and 38 W/cm 2 for HMX ignition. These observations demonstrate that a significant disruption of the gas phase, in certain scenarios, will inhibit ignition, independent of any condensed phase processes. These results underscore the importance of gas phase processes and illustrate that conditions can exist where simple condensed phase models are inadequate to accurately predict the behavior of energetic materials

  3. Importance of the gas phase role to the prediction of energetic material behavior: An experimental study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, A. N.; Son, S. F.; Asay, B. W.; Sander, R. K.

    2005-03-01

    Various thermal (radiative, conductive, and convective) initiation experiments are performed to demonstrate the importance of the gas phase role in combustion modeling of energetic materials (EM). A previously published condensed phase model that includes a predicted critical irradiance above which ignition is not possible is compared to experimental laser ignition results for octahydro-1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazocine (HMX) and 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene (TNT). Experimental results conflict with the predicted critical irradiance concept. The failure of the model is believed to result from a misconception about the role of the gas phase in the ignition process of energetic materials. The model assumes that ignition occurs at the surface and that evolution of gases inhibits ignition. High speed video of laser ignition, oven cook-off and hot wire ignition experiments captures the ignition of HMX and TNT in the gas phase. A laser ignition gap test is performed to further evaluate the effect of gas phase laser absorption and gas phase disruption on the ignition process. Results indicate that gas phase absorption of the laser energy is probably not the primary factor governing the gas phase ignition observations. It is discovered that a critical gap between an HMX pellet and a salt window of 6mm±0.4mm exists below which ignition by CO2 laser is not possible at the tested irradiances of 29W /cm2 and 38W/cm2 for HMX ignition. These observations demonstrate that a significant disruption of the gas phase, in certain scenarios, will inhibit ignition, independent of any condensed phase processes. These results underscore the importance of gas phase processes and illustrate that conditions can exist where simple condensed phase models are inadequate to accurately predict the behavior of energetic materials.

  4. Are population dynamics of shorebirds affected by El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) while on their non-breeding grounds in Ecuador?

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Hara, Patrick D.; Haase, Ben J. M.; Elner, Robert W.; Smith, Barry D.; Kenyon, Jamie K.

    2007-08-01

    Declines in avian populations are a global concern, particularly for species that migrate between Arctic-temperate and tropical locations. Long-term population studies offer opportunities to detect and document ecological effects attributable to long-term climatic cycles such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In this study, we report possible population-level effects of such climatic cycles on shorebird species that use two non-breeding season sites in Ecuador (Santa Elena peninsula area, near La Libertad). During our 9-year study period (1991/1992-1999/2000), there was a particularly strong ENSO warm phase event during 1997/1998. Population trend data for three species of shorebird, Western Sandpipers ( Calidris mauri), Semipalmated Sandpipers ( C. pusilla), and Least Sandpipers ( C. minutilla), indicated abundances generally declined during the 1990s, but there was an increase in the proportion of first-year birds and their abundance in the years following the 1997/1998 ENSO warm phase. There was some support for variation in apparent survivorship associated with the onset of the ENSO warm phase event in our population models, based on capture-mark-recapture data. Following the 1997/1998 ENSO event onset, individuals for all three species were significantly lighter during the non-breeding season ( F1,3789 = 6.6, p = 0.01). Least-squares mean mass (controlling for size, sex and day of capture) for first-year birds dropped significantly more than for adults following ENSO (first-year mass loss = 0.69 ± 0.12 g; adult mass loss = 0.34 ± 0.11 g, F1,3789 = 5.31, p = 0.021), and least-squares mean mass dropped most during the period when sandpipers prepare for northward migration by gaining mass and moulting into breeding plumage. Least Sandpipers may have declined the most in mean mass following ENSO (0.76 ± 0.19 g), whereas Semipalmated Sandpipers were 0.52 ± 0.12 g lighter, and Western Sandpipers 0.40 ± 0.13 g lighter, but overall variation among

  5. Changes in ENSO amplitude under climate warming and cooling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yingying; Luo, Yiyong; Lu, Jian; Liu, Fukai

    2018-05-01

    The response of ENSO amplitude to climate warming and cooling is investigated using the Community Earth System Model (CESM), in which the warming and cooling scenarios are designed by adding heat fluxes of equal amplitude but opposite sign onto the ocean surface, respectively. Results show that the warming induces an increase of the ENSO amplitude but the cooling gives rise to a decrease of the ENSO amplitude, and these changes are robust in statistics. A mixed layer heat budget analysis finds that the increasing (decreasing) SST tendency under climate warming (cooling) is mainly due to an enhancement (weakening) of dynamical feedback processes over the equatorial Pacific, including zonal advective (ZA) feedback, meridional advective (MA) feedback, thermocline (TH) feedback, and Ekman (EK) feedback. As the climate warms, a wind anomaly of the same magnitude across the equatorial Pacific can induce a stronger zonal current change in the east (i.e., a stronger ZA feedback), which in turn produces a greater weakening of upwelling (i.e., a stronger EK feedback) and thus a larger thermocline change (i.e., a stronger TH feedback). In response to the climate warming, in addition, the MA feedback is also strengthened due to an enhancement of the meridional SST gradient around the equator resulting from a weakening of the subtropical cells (STCs). It should be noted that the weakened STCs itself has a negative contribution to the change of the MA feedback which, however, appears to be secondary. And vice versa for the cooling case. Bjerknes linear stability (BJ) index is also evaluated for the linear stability of ENSO, with remarkably larger (smaller) BJ index found for the warming (cooling) case.

  6. Application of neural networks to prediction of phase transport characteristics in high-pressure two-phase turbulent bubbly flows

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, A.-S.; Kuo, T.-C.; Ling, P.-H.

    2003-01-01

    The phase transport phenomenon of the high-pressure two-phase turbulent bubbly flow involves complicated interfacial interactions of the mass, momentum, and energy transfer processes between phases, revealing that an enormous effort is required in characterizing the liquid-gas flow behavior. Nonetheless, the instantaneous information of bubbly flow properties is often desired for many industrial applications. This investigation aims to demonstrate the successful use of neural networks in the real-time determination of two-phase flow properties at elevated pressures. Three back-propagation neural networks, trained with the simulation results of a comprehensive theoretical model, are established to predict the transport characteristics (specifically the distributions of void-fraction and axial liquid-gas velocities) of upward turbulent bubbly pipe flows at pressures covering 3.5-7.0 MPa. Comparisons of the predictions with the test target vectors indicate that the averaged root-mean-squared (RMS) error for each one of three back-propagation neural networks is within 4.59%. In addition, this study appraises the effects of different network parameters, including the number of hidden nodes, the type of transfer function, the number of training pairs, the learning rate-increasing ratio, the learning rate-decreasing ratio, and the momentum value, on the training quality of neural networks.

  7. High Quality Model Predictive Control for Single Phase Grid Connected Photovoltaic Inverters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zangeneh Bighash, Esmaeil; Sadeghzadeh, Seyed Mohammad; Ebrahimzadeh, Esmaeil

    2018-01-01

    Single phase grid-connected inverters with LCL filter are widely used to connect the photovoltaic systems to the utility grid. Among the presented control schemes, predictive control methods are faster and more accurate but are more complex to implement. Recently, the model-predictive control...... algorithm for single-phase inverter has been presented, where the algorithm implementation is straightforward. In the proposed approach, all switching states are tested in each switching period to achieve the control objectives. However, since the number of the switching states in single-phase inverter...... is low, the inverter output current has a high total harmonic distortions. In order to reduce the total harmonic distortions of the injected current, this paper presents a high-quality model-predictive control for one of the newest structure of the grid connected photovoltaic inverter, i.e., HERIC...

  8. A Novel Model Predictive Control for Single-Phase Grid-Connected Photovoltaic Inverters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zangeneh Bighash, Esmaeil; Sadeghzadeh, Seyed Mohammad; Ebrahimzadeh, Esmaeil

    2017-01-01

    Single-phase grid-connected inverters with LCL filter are widely used to connect photovoltaic systems to the utility grid. Among the existing control schemes, predictive control methods are faster and more accurate but also more complicated to implement. Recently, the Model Predictive Control (MPC......) algorithm for single-phase inverter has been presented, where the algorithm implementation is straightforward. In the MPC approach, all switching states are considered in each switching period to achieve the control objectives. However, since the number of switching states in single-phase inverters is small......, the inverter output current has a high Total Harmonic Distortions (THD). In order to reduce this, this paper presents an improved MPC for single-phase grid-connected inverters. In the proposed approach, the switching algorithm is changed and the number of the switching states is increased by means of virtual...

  9. Use of isoconcentrational phase diagrams for prediction of amorphization of binary systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lazarev, A.I.; Belashchenko, D.K.

    1992-01-01

    Based on the application of isoconcentrational diagrams of phase equilibria of liquid with solid solutions of various crystal structures the thermodynamic method was considered for prediction of concentration ranges of amorphization in binary systems.To confirm the applicability of the thermodynamic criterion in practice caclulations of phase diagrams were accomplished for complex binary eutectic systems (Hf-Be, Zr-Be) with the known concentration ranges of amorphization

  10. Using reweighting and free energy surface interpolation to predict solid-solid phase diagrams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schieber, Natalie P.; Dybeck, Eric C.; Shirts, Michael R.

    2018-04-01

    Many physical properties of small organic molecules are dependent on the current crystal packing, or polymorph, of the material, including bioavailability of pharmaceuticals, optical properties of dyes, and charge transport properties of semiconductors. Predicting the most stable crystalline form at a given temperature and pressure requires determining the crystalline form with the lowest relative Gibbs free energy. Effective computational prediction of the most stable polymorph could save significant time and effort in the design of novel molecular crystalline solids or predict their behavior under new conditions. In this study, we introduce a new approach using multistate reweighting to address the problem of determining solid-solid phase diagrams and apply this approach to the phase diagram of solid benzene. For this approach, we perform sampling at a selection of temperature and pressure states in the region of interest. We use multistate reweighting methods to determine the reduced free energy differences between T and P states within a given polymorph and validate this phase diagram using several measures. The relative stability of the polymorphs at the sampled states can be successively interpolated from these points to create the phase diagram by combining these reduced free energy differences with a reference Gibbs free energy difference between polymorphs. The method also allows for straightforward estimation of uncertainties in the phase boundary. We also find that when properly implemented, multistate reweighting for phase diagram determination scales better with the size of the system than previously estimated.

  11. Ramsdellite-structured LiTiO 2: A new phase predicted from ab initio calculations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koudriachova, M. V.

    2008-06-01

    A new phase of highly lithiated titania with potential application as an anode in Li-rechargeable batteries is predicted on the basis of ab initio calculations. This phase has a composition LiTiO2 and may be accessed through electrochemical lithiation of ramsdellite-structured TiO2 at the lowest potential reported for titanium dioxide based materials. The potential remains constant over a wide range of Li-concentrations. The new phase is metastable with respect to a tetragonally distorted rock salt structure, which hitherto has been the only known polymorph of LiTiO2.

  12. Prediction of pressure drop and CCFL breakdown in countercurrent two-phase flow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ostrogorsky, A.G.; Gay, R.R.; Lahey, R.T. Jr.

    1983-01-01

    A steady-state analytical has been developed to predict channel pressure drop as a function of inlet vapor flow rate and applied heat flux during conditions of countercurrent two-phase flow. The interfacial constitutive relations utilized are flow surface dependent and allow for the existence of either smooth or way liquid films. A computer code was developed to solve the analytical model. Predictions of Δp versus vapor flow rate were found to agree favorably with experimental data from adiabatic, air/water systems. In addition, the model was used to predict countercurrent flow conditions in heated channels characteristic of a BWR/4 nuclear reactor fuel assembly

  13. Predictive Duty Cycle Control of Three-Phase Active-Front-End Rectifiers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Song, Zhanfeng; Tian, Yanjun; Chen, Wei

    2016-01-01

    This paper proposed an on-line optimizing duty cycle control approach for three-phase active-front-end rectifiers, aiming to obtain the optimal control actions under different operating conditions. Similar to finite control set model predictive control strategy, a cost function previously...

  14. Numerical Study on Interdecadal Modulations of ENSO-related Spring Rainfall over South China by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    MAO, J.; WU, X.

    2017-12-01

    The spatio-temporal variations of eastern China spring rainfall are identified via empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of rain-gauge (gridded) precipitation datasets for the period 1958-2013 (1920-2013). The interannual variations of the first two leading EOF modes are linked with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with this linkage being modulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The EOF1 mode, characterized by predominant rainfall anomalies from the Yangtze River to North China (YNC), is more likely associated with out-of-phase PDO-ENSO events [i.e., El Niño during cold PDO (EN_CPDO) and La Niña during warm PDO (LN_WPDO)]. The sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) distributions of EN_CPDO (LN_WPDO) events induce a significant anomalous anticyclone (cyclone) over the western North Pacific stretching northwards to the Korean Peninsula and southern Japan, resulting in anomalous southwesterlies (northeasterlies) prevailing over eastern China and above-normal (below-normal) rainfall over YNC. In contrast, EOF2 exhibits a dipole pattern with predominantly positive rainfall anomalies over southern China along with negative anomalies over YNC, which is more likely connected to in-phase PDO-ENSO events [i.e., El Niño during warm PDO (EN_WPDO) and La Niña during cold PDO (LN_CPDO)]. EN_WPDO (LN_CPDO) events force a southwest-northeast oriented dipole-like circulation pattern leading to significant anomalous southwesterlies (northeasterlies) and above-normal (below-normal) rainfall over southern China. Numerical experiments with the CAM5 model forced by the SSTA patterns of EN_WPDO and EN_CPDO events reproduce reasonably well the corresponding anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns and spring rainfall modes over eastern China, validating the related mechanisms.

  15. Nonlinear Prediction As A Tool For Determining Parameters For Phase Space Reconstruction In Meteorology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miksovsky, J.; Raidl, A.

    Time delays phase space reconstruction represents one of useful tools of nonlinear time series analysis, enabling number of applications. Its utilization requires the value of time delay to be known, as well as the value of embedding dimension. There are sev- eral methods how to estimate both these parameters. Typically, time delay is computed first, followed by embedding dimension. Our presented approach is slightly different - we reconstructed phase space for various combinations of mentioned parameters and used it for prediction by means of the nearest neighbours in the phase space. Then some measure of prediction's success was computed (correlation or RMSE, e.g.). The position of its global maximum (minimum) should indicate the suitable combination of time delay and embedding dimension. Several meteorological (particularly clima- tological) time series were used for the computations. We have also created a MS- Windows based program in order to implement this approach - its basic features will be presented as well.

  16. A new method in prediction of TCP phases formation in superalloys

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mousavi Anijdan, S.H.; Bahrami, A.

    2005-01-01

    The purpose of this investigation is to develop a model for prediction of topologically closed-packed (TCP) phases formation in superalloys. In this study, artificial neural networks (ANN), using several different network architectures, were used to investigate the complex relationships between TCP phases and chemical composition of superalloys. In order to develop an optimum ANN structure, more than 200 experimental data were used to train and test the neural network. The results of this investigation shows that a multilayer perceptron (MLP) form of the neural networks with one hidden layer and 10 nodes in the hidden layer has the lowest mean absolute error (MAE) and can be accurately used to predict the electron-hole number (N v ) and TCP phases formation in superalloys

  17. An eigenstrain approach to predict phase transformation and self-accommodation in partially stabilized zirconia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hensl, Th.; Mühlich, U.; Budnitzki, M.; Kuna, M.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Analytical model to predict phase transformation in PSZ is developed. • Analytical model to predict number of twins in monoclinic inclusions in PSZ. • Models consider inclusions size, shape, temperature, remote loading and surface energy. - Abstract: This work focuses on micromechanical modeling of the tetragonal to monoclinic phase transformation (t–m transformation) in partially stabilized zirconia (PSZ). Tetragonal particles dispersed in a cubic matrix may transform into the monoclinic phase under sufficiently high mechanical loading or if the material is cooled down below a critical temperature. This phase transformation is supposed to be responsible for the so called transformation toughening effect of PSZ. The transformation is usually accompanied by a self-accommodation process, which reduces the occurring eigenstresses in the surrounding matrix. The influences of particle size and geometry, chemical driving force, temperature, surface energy and remote loading on the t–m transformation are estimated by a thermostatic approach. We assume, that transformations occur, once the Gibbs free energy of the transformed equilibrium state is lower than that of the untransformed reference state. To obtain an analytical solution, the microstructure is modeled as an inclusion of rectangular cross section, restrained by an infinite elastic matrix, under plane strain conditions. The developed model for phase transformation captures the well-known size and temperature dependencies. Furthermore, it indicates a significant influence of the particle geometry, that large aspect ratios of the inclusion’s cross section lower the trigger stress for phase transformation

  18. Influences of the ENSO event on the rainfall of dry Sudan

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    One third of the world's population live in places where medium to high water stress is compounded by pollution, climate change, inefficient management approaches and governance issues. This study detects the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and signals, and the influences of the different ENSO stages in the ...

  19. Reduced herbivory during simulated ENSO rainy events increases native herbaceous plants in semiarid Chile

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Manrique, R.; Gutierrez, J.R.; Holmgren, M.; Squeo, F.A.

    2007-01-01

    El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events have profound consequences for the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems. Since increased climate variability is expected to favour the invasive success of exotic species, we conducted a field experiment to study the effects that simulated rainy ENSO events in

  20. Shifting patterns of ENSO variability from a 492-year South Pacific coral core

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tangri, N.; Linsley, B. K.; Mucciarone, D.; Dunbar, R. B.

    2017-12-01

    Anticipating the impacts of ENSO in a changing climate requires detailed reconstructions of changes in its timing, amplitude, and spatial pattern, as well as attempts to attribute those changes to external forcing or internal variability. A continuous coral δ18O record from American Samoa, in the tropical South Pacific, sheds light on almost five centuries of these changes. We find evidence of internally-driven 50-100 year cycles with broad peaks of high variability punctuated by short transitions of low variability. We see a long, slow trend towards more frequent ENSO events, punctuated by sharp decreases in frequency; the 20th century in particular shows a strong trend towards higher-frequency ENSO. Due to the unique location of American Samoa with respect to ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, we infer changes in the spatial pattern of ENSO. American Samoa currently lies on the ENSO 3.4 nodal line - the boomerang shape that separates waters warmed by El Niño from those that cool. Closer examination reveals that SST around American Samoa displays opposing responses to Eastern and Central Pacific ENSO events. However, this has not always been the case; in the late 19th and early 20th century, SST responded similarly to both flavors of ENSO. We interpret this to mean a geographic narrowing towards the equator of the eastern Pacific El Niño SST anomaly pattern in the first half of the 20th century.

  1. A synthesis of ENSO effects on drylands in Australia, North America and South America

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Holmgren, M.; Stapp, P.; Dickman, C.; Gracia, C.; Graham, S.

    2005-01-01

    Fundamentally, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climatic and oceanographic phenomenon, but it has profound effects on terrestrial ecosystems. Although the ecological effects of ENSO are becoming increasingly known from a wide range of terrestrial ecosystems (Holmgren et al., 2001), their

  2. ENSO related decadal scale climate variability from the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brijker, J.M.; Jung, S.J.A.; Ganssen, G.M.; Bickert, T.; Kroon, D.

    2006-01-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climatic phenomenon that affects socio-economical welfare in vast areas in the world. A continuous record of Holocene ENSO related climate variability of the Indo-Pacific Warm pool (IPWP) is constructed on the basis of stable oxygen isotopes in shells of

  3. Imavere Sawmill is Stora Ensos Jewel in the Region / Seppo Vainio ; interv. Toivo Tänavsuu

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Vainio, Seppo

    2004-01-01

    Skandinaavia metsanduskontserni Stora Enso Timberi tegevuse juht Baltikumis vastab küsimustele, mis puudutavad Eesti suurima metsatööstuse Sylvesteri ostu 2003. aastal, Baltikumi üksuste osa Stora Enso tegevuses, Imavere saeveski valimist aasta välisinvestoriks. Vt. samas: Imavere saeveski eile ja täna. Tabel: "Välisinvestor 2004" nominendid

  4. CFD prediction of flow and phase distribution in fuel assemblies with spacers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anglart, H.; Nylund, O. [ABB Atom AB, Vasteras (Switzerland); Kurul, N. [Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY (United States)] [and others

    1995-09-01

    This paper is concerned with the modeling and computation of multi-dimensional two-phase flows in BWR fuel assemblies. The modeling principles are presented based on using a two-fluid model in which lateral interfacial effects are accounted for. This model has been used to evaluate the velocity fields of both vapor and liquid phases, as well as phase distribution, between fuel elements in geometries similar to BWR fuel bundles. Furthermore, this model has been used to predict, in a detailed mechanistic manner, the effects of spacers on flow and phase distribution between, and pressure drop along, fuel elements. The related numerical simulations have been performed using a CFD computer code, CFDS-FLOW3D.

  5. Reduced ENSO Variability at the LGM Revealed by an Isotope-Enabled Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Jiang; Liu, Zhengyu; Brady, Esther; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Zhang, Jiaxu; Noone, David; Tomas, Robert; Nusbaumer, Jesse; Wong, Tony; Jahn, Alexandra; hide

    2017-01-01

    Studying the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the past can help us better understand its dynamics and improve its future projections. However, both paleoclimate reconstructions and model simulations of ENSO strength at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 ka B.P.) have led to contradicting results. Here we perform model simulations using the recently developed water isotope-enabled Community Earth System Model (iCESM). For the first time, model-simulated oxygen isotopes are directly compared with those from ENSO reconstructions using the individual foraminifera analysis (IFA). We find that the LGM ENSO is most likely weaker comparing with the preindustrial. The iCESM suggests that total variance of the IFA records may only reflect changes in the annual cycle instead of ENSO variability as previously assumed. Furthermore, the interpretation of subsurface IFA records can be substantially complicated by the habitat depth of thermocline-dwelling foraminifera and their vertical migration with a temporally varying thermocline.

  6. A Tool for Predicting Regulatory Approval After Phase II Testing of New Oncology Compounds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DiMasi, J A; Hermann, J C; Twyman, K; Kondru, R K; Stergiopoulos, S; Getz, K A; Rackoff, W

    2015-11-01

    We developed an algorithm (ANDI) for predicting regulatory marketing approval for new cancer drugs after phase II testing has been conducted, with the objective of providing a tool to improve drug portfolio decision-making. We examined 98 oncology drugs from the top 50 pharmaceutical companies (2006 sales) that first entered clinical development from 1999 to 2007, had been taken to at least phase II development, and had a known final outcome (research abandonment or regulatory marketing approval). Data on safety, efficacy, operational, market, and company characteristics were obtained from public sources. Logistic regression and machine-learning methods were used to provide an unbiased approach to assess overall predictability and to identify the most important individual predictors. We found that a simple four-factor model (activity, number of patients in the pivotal phase II trial, phase II duration, and a prevalence-related measure) had high sensitivity and specificity for predicting regulatory marketing approval. © 2015 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

  7. Indian Ocean and Indian summer monsoon: relationships without ENSO in ocean-atmosphere coupled simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crétat, Julien; Terray, Pascal; Masson, Sébastien; Sooraj, K. P.; Roxy, Mathew Koll

    2017-08-01

    The relationship between the Indian Ocean and the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and their respective influence over the Indo-Western North Pacific (WNP) region are examined in the absence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in two partially decoupled global experiments. ENSO is removed by nudging the tropical Pacific simulated sea surface temperature (SST) toward SST climatology from either observations or a fully coupled control run. The control reasonably captures the observed relationships between ENSO, ISM and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Despite weaker amplitude, IODs do exist in the absence of ENSO and are triggered by a boreal spring ocean-atmosphere coupled mode over the South-East Indian Ocean similar to that found in the presence of ENSO. These pure IODs significantly affect the tropical Indian Ocean throughout boreal summer, inducing a significant modulation of both the local Walker and Hadley cells. This meridional circulation is masked in the presence of ENSO. However, these pure IODs do not significantly influence the Indian subcontinent rainfall despite overestimated SST variability in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean compared to observations. On the other hand, they promote a late summer cross-equatorial quadrupole rainfall pattern linking the tropical Indian Ocean with the WNP, inducing important zonal shifts of the Walker circulation despite the absence of ENSO. Surprisingly, the interannual ISM rainfall variability is barely modified and the Indian Ocean does not force the monsoon circulation when ENSO is removed. On the contrary, the monsoon circulation significantly forces the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal SSTs, while its connection with the western tropical Indian Ocean is clearly driven by ENSO in our numerical framework. Convection and diabatic heating associated with above-normal ISM induce a strong response over the WNP, even in the absence of ENSO, favoring moisture convergence over India.

  8. Phase separation in coamorphous systems: in silico prediction and the experimental challenge of detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pajula, Katja; Wittoek, Lieke; Lehto, Vesa-Pekka; Ketolainen, Jarkko; Korhonen, Ossi

    2014-07-07

    Combinatorial chemistry has enabled the production of very potent drugs that might otherwise suffer from poor solubility and low oral bioavailability. One approach to increase solubility is to make the drug amorphous, which leads to problems associated with drug stability. To improve stability, one option is to molecularly disperse the drug in a matrix. However, the primary reason for the failed stabilization with this approach is phase separation, which has been carefully studied in polymeric systems. Nevertheless, the amorphous-amorphous phase separation in coamorphous small molecule mixtures has not yet been reported. The goal of the present study was to experimentally detect the amorphous-amorphous phase separation between two small molecules. A modified in silico method for predicting miscibility by the Flory-Huggins interaction parameter is presented, where conformational variations of the studied molecules were taken into account. A series of drug-drug mixtures, with different mixture ratios, were analyzed by conventional differential scanning calorimetry (DSC(conv)) to detect possible amorphous-amorphous phase separations. The phase separation of coamorphous drug-drug mixtures was also monitored by temperature modulated DSC (MDSC) and Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) imaging at temperatures above Tg for prolonged time periods. Amorphous-amorphous phase separation was not detected with DSC(conv), probably due to the slow kinetics of phase separation. However, the melting of the separated and subsequently crystallized phases was detected by MDSC. Furthermore, FT-IR imaging was able to detect the separation of the two amorphous phases, which demonstrates the ability of this method to detect small molecule phase separations.

  9. Changes in atmospheric rivers and moisture transport over the Northeast Pacific and western North America in response to ENSO diversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hye-Mi; Zhou, Yang; Alexander, Michael A.

    2017-03-01

    The year-to-year changes in atmospheric rivers (ARs) and moisture transport over the northeast Pacific and western North America are investigated during December to February (DJF) from 1979/80 to 2015/16. Changes in AR frequency, intensity, and landfall characteristics are compared between three ENSO phases: central Pacific El Niño (CPEN), eastern Pacific El Niño (EPEN), and La Niña (NINA). During EPEN events, the subtropical jet extends to the south and east with an anomalous cyclonic flow around a deeper Aleutian Low. More moisture is transported towards North America and AR frequency is increased over western North America. In CPEN events, the Aleutian low shifts further southward relative to its position in EPEN, resulting in an increase in the frequency and intensity of landfalling ARs over the southwestern US. In NINA events, the landfalling AR frequency is reduced associated with anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the eastern North Pacific. We diagnose the contribution of multiple factors to the seasonal mean moisture transport using moisture budgets. During the three ENSO phases, the change in low-frequency circulation (dynamical process) is the leading contributor to the seasonal mean moisture flux divergence, while the contributions of the synoptic anomalies and the change in moisture anomaly (thermodynamic process) are not significant along the west coast of North America.

  10. Predictions for the Dirac C P -violating phase from sum rules

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delgadillo, Luis A.; Everett, Lisa L.; Ramos, Raymundo; Stuart, Alexander J.

    2018-05-01

    We explore the implications of recent results relating the Dirac C P -violating phase to predicted and measured leptonic mixing angles within a standard set of theoretical scenarios in which charged lepton corrections are responsible for generating a nonzero value of the reactor mixing angle. We employ a full set of leptonic sum rules as required by the unitarity of the lepton mixing matrix, which can be reduced to predictions for the observable mixing angles and the Dirac C P -violating phase in terms of model parameters. These sum rules are investigated within a given set of theoretical scenarios for the neutrino sector diagonalization matrix for several known classes of charged lepton corrections. The results provide explicit maps of the allowed model parameter space within each given scenario and assumed form of charged lepton perturbations.

  11. Phase change predictions for liquid fuel in contact with steel structure using the heat conduction equation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brear, D.J. [Power Reactor and Nuclear Fuel Development Corp., Oarai, Ibaraki (Japan). Oarai Engineering Center

    1998-01-01

    When liquid fuel makes contact with steel structure the liquid can freeze as a crust and the structure can melt at the surface. The melting and freezing processes that occur can influence the mode of fuel freezing and hence fuel relocation. Furthermore the temperature gradients established in the fuel and steel phases determine the rate at which heat is transferred from fuel to steel. In this memo the 1-D transient heat conduction equations are applied to the case of initially liquid UO{sub 2} brought into contact with solid steel using up-to-date materials properties. The solutions predict criteria for fuel crust formation and steel melting and provide a simple algorithm to determine the interface temperature when one or both of the materials is undergoing phase change. The predicted steel melting criterion is compared with available experimental results. (author)

  12. Phase change predictions for liquid fuel in contact with steel structure using the heat conduction equation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brear, D.J.

    1998-01-01

    When liquid fuel makes contact with steel structure the liquid can freeze as a crust and the structure can melt at the surface. The melting and freezing processes that occur can influence the mode of fuel freezing and hence fuel relocation. Furthermore the temperature gradients established in the fuel and steel phases determine the rate at which heat is transferred from fuel to steel. In this memo the 1-D transient heat conduction equations are applied to the case of initially liquid UO 2 brought into contact with solid steel using up-to-date materials properties. The solutions predict criteria for fuel crust formation and steel melting and provide a simple algorithm to determine the interface temperature when one or both of the materials is undergoing phase change. The predicted steel melting criterion is compared with available experimental results. (author)

  13. Summer monsoon circulation and precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean during ENSO in the NCEP climate forecast system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowdary, J. S.; Chaudhari, H. S.; Gnanaseelan, C.; Parekh, Anant; Suryachandra Rao, A.; Sreenivas, P.; Pokhrel, S.; Singh, P.

    2014-04-01

    This study investigates the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections to tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and their relationship with the Indian summer monsoon in the coupled general circulation model climate forecast system (CFS). The model shows good skill in simulating the impact of El Niño over the Indian Oceanic rim during its decay phase (the summer following peak phase of El Niño). Summer surface circulation patterns during the developing phase of El Niño are more influenced by local Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies in the model unlike in observations. Eastern TIO cooling similar to that of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a dominant model feature in summer. This anomalous SST pattern therefore is attributed to the tendency of the model to simulate more frequent IOD events. On the other hand, in the model baroclinic response to the diabatic heating anomalies induced by the El Niño related warm SSTs is weak, resulting in reduced zonal extension of the Rossby wave response. This is mostly due to weak eastern Pacific summer time SST anomalies in the model during the developing phase of El Niño as compared to observations. Both eastern TIO cooling and weak SST warming in El Niño region combined together undermine the ENSO teleconnections to the TIO and south Asia regions. The model is able to capture the spatial patterns of SST, circulation and precipitation well during the decay phase of El Niño over the Indo-western Pacific including the typical spring asymmetric mode and summer basin-wide warming in TIO. The model simulated El Niño decay one or two seasons later, resulting long persistent warm SST and circulation anomalies mainly over the southwest TIO. In response to the late decay of El Niño, Ekman pumping shows two maxima over the southern TIO. In conjunction with this unrealistic Ekman pumping, westward propagating Rossby waves display two peaks, which play key role in the long-persistence of the TIO warming in the model (for more than a

  14. Two ENSO episodes with reversed impacts on the regional precipitation of the northeastern South America Dos eventos ENSO con impactos opuestos sobre la precipitación regional en el noreste de Sudamérica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Everaldo B. de Souza

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available Diagnostic analyses of two ENSO episodes observed during 1954-55 (La Niña and 1972-73 (El Niño over tropical Pacific Ocean are reported. These years were marked by reversed impact on the regional precipitation observed over the northeastern South America. The observational results showed that, in the Pacific Ocean, the La Niña stayed well configured during both summer and autumn of 1954-55, however the El Niño presented its mature phase during summer of 1972-73 and an abrupt decline during autumn of 1973. On the other hand, the large-scale oceanic and atmospheric patterns related to the intertropical Atlantic SST gradient, created dynamic conditions that modulated the positioning of ITCZ in the equatorial Atlantic and regulated significantly the rainfall anomalies observed in the northeastern South America, overcoming the effect of the ENSO mode observed in the tropical Pacific.En el presente trabajo se realiza un estudio de diagnóstico de los eventos ENSO ocurridos en 1954-55 (La Niña y 1972-73 (El Niño. Durante 1954-55 (1972-73, se observaron anomalías de temperaturas de la superficie del mar (TSM positivas (negativas en el Atlántico Norte y negativas (positivas en el Atlántico Sur, lo que define la fase positiva (negativa del dipolo Atlántico. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que pese a la ocurrencia del evento La Niña (El Niño en el Pacífico, la configuración del dipolo positivo (negativo en el Atlántico creó las condiciones favorables para mantener la ITCZ al norte (sur del Ecuador. En consecuencia, se encontró un déficit (exceso de precipitación en el nor-noreste brasileño durante DEF y MAM de 1954-55 (1972-73. Por lo tanto, durante estos años la configuración anómala de TSM en el Atlántico moduló las anomalías de lluvia observadas en el Amazonas y noreste de Brasil, superando el efecto del ENSO.

  15. Three-phase Bone Scintigraphy Can Predict the Analgesic Efficacy of Ketamine Therapy in CRPS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sorel, Marc; Beatrix, Jacques-Christian; Locko, Blanche; Armessen, Catherine; Domec, Anne-Marie; Lecompte, Otilia; Boucheneb, Sofiane; Harache, Benoit; Robert, Jacques; Lefaucheur, Jean-Pascal

    2018-03-13

    The efficacy of ketamine in relieving complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS) lacks predictive factors. The value of three-phase bone scintigraphy (TPBS) was assessed or this purpose. TPBS was performed in 105 patients with unilateral, focal CRPS of type 1 before 5 days of ketamine infusions. Tracer uptake was measured in the region of interest concerned by CRPS and the contralateral homologous region. For the three scintigraphic phases (vascular, tissular, and bone phases), an asymmetry ratio of fixation was calculated between the affected and the unaffected sides (VPr, TPr, and BPr). Ketamine efficacy was assessed on pain intensity scores. Ketamine-induced pain relief did not correlate with VPr, TPr, and BPr, but with the ratios of these ratios: BPr/TPr (r=0.32, P=0.009), BPr/VPr (r=0.34, P=0.005), and TPr/VPr (r=0.23, P=0.02). The optimum cut-off value for predicting the response to ketamine therapy was >1.125 for BPr/TPr, >1.075 for BPr/VPr, and >0.935 for TPr/VPr. The combination of increased values of BPr/TPr, BPr/VPr, and TPr/VPr was extremely significantly associated with ketamine therapy outcome. The relative hyperfixation of the radioactive tracer in the limb region concerned by CRPS in phases 2 and 3 versus phase 1 of TPBS correlated positively to the analgesic efficacy of ketamine. This study shows for the first time the potential predictive value of TPBS regarding ketamine therapy outcome. In addition, these results suggest that the analgesic action of ketamine is not restricted to "central" mechanisms, but may also involve "peripheral" mechanisms related to tissue inflammation and bone remodeling.

  16. Properties predictive modeling through the concept of a hybrid interphase existing between phases in contact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Portan, D. V.; Papanicolaou, G. C.

    2018-02-01

    From practical point of view, predictive modeling based on the physics of composite material behavior is wealth generating; by guiding material system selection and process choices, by cutting down on experimentation and associated costs; and by speeding up the time frame from the research stage to the market place. The presence of areas with different properties and the existence of an interphase between them have a pronounced influence on the behavior of a composite system. The Viscoelastic Hybrid Interphase Model (VHIM), considers the existence of a non-homogeneous viscoelastic and anisotropic interphase having properties depended on the degree of adhesion between the two phases in contact. The model applies for any physical/mechanical property (e.g. mechanical, thermal, electrical and/or biomechanical). Knowing the interphasial variation of a specific property one can predict the corresponding macroscopic behavior of the composite. Moreover, the model acts as an algorithm and a two-way approach can be used: (i) phases in contact may be chosen to get the desired properties of the final composite system or (ii) the initial phases in contact determine the final behavior of the composite system, that can be approximately predicted. The VHIM has been proven, amongst others, to be extremely useful in biomaterial designing for improved contact with human tissues.

  17. Prediction of phase equilibria and thermal analysis in the Bi-Cu-Pb ternary system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Manasijevic, Dragan [University of Belgrade, Technical Faculty, VJ 12, 19210 Bor (Serbia); Mitovski, Aleksandra, E-mail: amitovski@tf.bor.ac.rs [University of Belgrade, Technical Faculty, VJ 12, 19210 Bor (Serbia); Minic, Dusko [University of Pristina, Faculty of Technical Sciences, 38220 Kosovska Mitrovica (Serbia); Zivkovic, Dragana; Marjanovic, Sasa [University of Belgrade, Technical Faculty, VJ 12, 19210 Bor (Serbia); Todorovic, Radisa [Institute of Mining and Metallurgy, Zeleni Bulevar 35, 19210 Bor (Serbia); Balanovic, Ljubisa [University of Belgrade, Technical Faculty, VJ 12, 19210 Bor (Serbia)

    2010-05-20

    The knowledge about phase diagram of the Bi-Cu-Pb ternary system is of importance in development of copper-lead based bearing materials, soldering and in refining of copper and lead. In this work, the phase diagram of the Bi-Cu-Pb ternary system was calculated by the CALPHAD method using binary thermodynamic parameters included in the COST 531 database. The results include liquidus projection, invariant equilibria and three vertical sections with molar ratio Cu:Pb = 1, Cu:Pb = 1:3 and Bi:Cu = 1. Alloys, with compositions along three predicted vertical sections, were measured using differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). The experimentally determined phase transition temperatures were compared with calculated results and good mutual agreement was noticed.

  18. Prediction of phase equilibria and thermal analysis in the Bi-Cu-Pb ternary system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Manasijevic, Dragan; Mitovski, Aleksandra; Minic, Dusko; Zivkovic, Dragana; Marjanovic, Sasa; Todorovic, Radisa; Balanovic, Ljubisa

    2010-01-01

    The knowledge about phase diagram of the Bi-Cu-Pb ternary system is of importance in development of copper-lead based bearing materials, soldering and in refining of copper and lead. In this work, the phase diagram of the Bi-Cu-Pb ternary system was calculated by the CALPHAD method using binary thermodynamic parameters included in the COST 531 database. The results include liquidus projection, invariant equilibria and three vertical sections with molar ratio Cu:Pb = 1, Cu:Pb = 1:3 and Bi:Cu = 1. Alloys, with compositions along three predicted vertical sections, were measured using differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). The experimentally determined phase transition temperatures were compared with calculated results and good mutual agreement was noticed.

  19. Climate, ENSO and 'Black Swans' over the Last Millennium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, L. G.; Mosley-Thompson, E.; Davis, M. E.; Kenny, D. V.; Lin, P. N.

    2014-12-01

    Tropical rainfall patterns influence the lives of billions of people both north and south of the Equator. Evidence of major ENSO events such as droughts is often recorded in the oxygen isotopic ratios and aerosol concentrations in tropical ice cores. Here we examine unusual events recorded in three ice cores, two (Quelccaya and Coropuna) in the Southern Hemisphere on the Peruvian Altiplano and the third (Dasuopu) located 22,000 km away on the southern edge of the Tibetan Plateau at the top of the Himalayas. These records suggest that the unique lower and middle tropospheric air flow over chloride (Cl-) and fluoride (F-) enriched areas upwind of the sites during ENSO events leads to enhanced deposition of these species on these glaciers. Linkages are demonstrated between ice-core chemistry and drought indicators, changes in lake levels, and ENSO and monsoon indices. Two unusual events, in the late 18th and mid-14th Centuries, are marked by abnormally high concentrations of F- and Cl- in at least two of the ice core records. All three records document a drought from 1789 to 1800 CE in which increases in these anionic concentrations reflect the abundance of continental atmospheric dust derived from arid regions upwind of the core sites. The earlier event, apparent only in the Quelccaya and Dasuopu ice cores, begins abruptly in 1343 and tapers off by 1375. The interaction between high frequency El Niños and low frequency shifts in the inter-tropical convergence zone may have resulted in these unusually severe and extended droughts. These "Black Swan" events correspond to historically documented, devastating population disruptions that were in part climate related. The 1789 to 1800 CE event was concurrent with the Doji Bara famine resulting from extended droughts that led to over 600,000 deaths in central India by 1792. Similarly extensive climate disruptions are documented in Central and South America. The mid-14th Century drought is concomitant with major monsoon

  20. P stabilizes dark matter and with CP can predict leptonic phases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuchimanchi, Ravi

    2014-02-15

    We find that spontaneously broken parity (P) or left-right symmetry stabilizes darkmatter in a beautiful way. If dark matter has a non-real intrinsic parity ±i (e.g. if it entails Majorana fermions), parity can ensure that it cannot decay to all normal particles with real intrinsic parities. However, if Majorana couplings are absent either in the lepton or the dark sector, P symmetry can be redefined to remove relative non-real intrinsic phases. It is therefore predicted that neutrinos and dark matter fermions must have Majorana masses if dark matter is stable due to parity. The strong CP problem is solved by additionally imposing CP and including vectorlike fermions that help generate CP violation. If leptonlike heavy fermions are provided purely imaginary intrinsic parity phase, they do not couple to the usual leptons, and leptonic CP phases are not generated, which is a testable prediction. Experimentally if leptonic CP phases are not found (if they are consistent with 0 or π) it can be evidence for the type of models in this work where CP is spontaneously or softly broken and there is also a second hidden or softly broken symmetry such as P, Z{sub 2} or Z{sub 4}. However, leptonic CP violation can be present in closely related or some nonminimal versions of these models, such as by also including vectorlike leptons with real intrinsic parities. (orig.)

  1. An exploratory modeling study on bio-physical processes associated with ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Park, Young-Gyu

    2014-05-01

    Variability of marine phytoplankton associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and potential biological feedbacks onto ENSO are investigated by performing coupled ocean/biogeochemical model experiments forced by realistic surface winds from 1951 to 2010. The ocean model used in this study is the MOM4, which is coupled to a biogeochemical model, called TOPAZ (Tracers in the Ocean with Allometric Zooplankton). In general, it is shown that MOM4-TOPAZ mimics the observed main features of phytoplankton variability associated with ENSO. By comparing the actively coupled MOM4-TOPAZ experiment with the ocean model experiments using prescribed chlorophyll concentrations, potential impacts of phytoplankton on ENSO are evaluated. We found that chlorophyll generally increases mean sea surface temperature (SST) and decreases subsurface temperature by altering the penetration of solar radiation. However, as the chlorophyll concentration increases, the equatorial Pacific SST decreases due to the enhanced upwelling of the cooler subsurface water with shoaling of mixed layer and thermocline. The presence of chlorophyll generally intensifies ENSO amplitude by changing the ocean basic state. On the other hand, interactively varying chlorophyll associated with the ENSO tends to reduce ENSO amplitude. Therefore, the two biological effects on SST are competing against each other regarding the SST variance in the equatorial Pacific.

  2. Paleoclimate Records from New Zealand Maar Lakes, Insights into ENSO Teleconnections and Climatic Events in the South (West) Pacific.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shulmeister, J.; Nobes, D. C.; Striewski, B.

    2008-05-01

    The maar craters of the New Zealand Auckland Volcanic Field (36.5°S, 174.5°E) contain some of the highest resolution late-Quaternary paleoclimate records in the Southern Hemisphere. Here we integrate laminae count results from recent drilling in the Hopua Crater with existing records from the nearby Onepoto Crater (Pepper et al., 2004). In total these records cover many thousands of years between the onset of the last glaciation maximum and the early mid-Holocene. The cores are strongly laminated. Individual laminae in both craters are very fine (sub-mm to mm scale) and form couplets which comprise a darker mineralogenic rich layer and a lighter diatomaceous layer. In places these couplets are annual, and may reflect seasonal algal blooms, but in other sections of the record, notably through the late-Glacial and Holocene, the couplets are deposited at inter-annual time scales. Spectral analyses of couplet thickness counts using a fast Fourier transform (FFT) with 64 to 256-year running windows, and a 50 per cent overlap indicate strong spectral power during the LGM and markedly weaker power during both the deglaciation and early Holocene. In fact there is no spectral strength for most of these periods. Three brief (centennial duration) events punctuate this extended period of low spectral power. These occur at c. 16 ka, c. 14.8 ka and during the early Holocene. They display spectral power in the 5-7yr ENSO window and also at longer time intervals that may be consistent with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. We infer the local switching on (or up) of ENSO and PDO teleconnections and suspect these are embedded in circum-polar circulation changes. In addition to these spectral power episodes, there is a general increase in the number of couplet cycles per century between the deglaciation and the early mid-Holocene. This matches observations from Equador and Peru and suggests that trans-Pacific ENSO responses are in phase between western tropical South America and New

  3. Multi-scale linkages of winter drought variability to ENSO and the Arctic Oscillation: A case study in Shaanxi, North China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhiyong; Zhang, Xin; Fang, Ruihong

    2018-02-01

    Understanding the potential connections between climate indices such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) and drought variability will be beneficial for making reasonable predictions or assumptions about future regional droughts, and provide valuable information to improve water resources planning and design for specific regions of interest. This study is to examine the multi-scale relationships between winter drought variability over Shaanxi (North China) and both ENSO and AO during the period 1960-2009. To accomplish this, we first estimated winter dryness/wetness conditions over Shaanxi based on the self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index (PDSI). Then, we identified the spatiotemporal variability of winter dryness/wetness conditions in the study area by using the empirical orthogonal function (EOF). Two primary sub-regions of winter dryness/wetness conditions across Shaanxi were identified. We further examined the periodical oscillations of dryness/wetness conditions and the multi-scale relationships between dryness/wetness conditions and both ENSO and AO in winter using wavelet analysis. The results indicate that there are inverse multi-scale relations between winter dryness/wetness conditions and ENSO (according to the wavelet coherence) for most of the study area. Moreover, positive multi-scale relations between winter dryness/wetness conditions and AO are mainly observed. The results could be beneficial for making reasonable predictions or assumptions about future regional droughts and provide valuable information to improve water resources planning and design within this study area. In addition to the current study area, this study may also offer a useful reference for other regions worldwide with similar climate conditions.

  4. Flow Test to Predict Early Hypotony and Hypertensive Phase After Ahmed Glaucoma Valve (AGV) Surgical Implantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Jason; Beltran-Agullo, Laura; Buys, Yvonne M; Moss, Edward B; Gonzalez, Johanna; Trope, Graham E

    2016-06-01

    To assess the validity of a preimplantation flow test to predict early hypotony [intraocular pressure (IOP)≤5 mm Hg on 2 consecutive visits and hypertensive phase (HP) (IOP>21 mm Hg) after Ahmed Glaucoma Valve (AGV) implantation. Prospective interventional study on patients receiving an AGV. A preimplantation flow test using a gravity-driven reservoir and an open manometer was performed on all AGVs. Opening pressure (OP) and closing pressure (CP) were defined as the pressure at which fluid was seen to flow or stop flowing through the AGV, respectively. OP and CP were measured twice per AGV. Patients were followed for 12 weeks. In total, 20 eyes from 19 patients were enrolled. At 12 weeks the mean IOP decreased from 29.2±9.1 to 16.8±5.2 mm Hg (P<0.01). The mean AGV OP was 17.5±5.4 mm Hg and the mean CP was 6.7±2.3 mm Hg. Early (within 2 wk postoperative) HP occurred in 37% and hypotony in 16% of cases. An 18 mm Hg cutoff for the OP gave a sensitivity of 0.71, specificity of 0.83, positive predictive value of 0.71, and negative predictive value of 0.83 for predicting an early HP. A 7 mm Hg cutoff for the CP yielded a sensitivity of 1.0, specificity of 0.38, positive predictive value of 0.23, and negative predictive value of 1.0 for predicting hypotony. Preoperative OP and CP may predict early hypotony or HP and may be used as a guide as to which AGV valves to discard before implantation surgery.

  5. Prediction of two-phase mixture density using artificial neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lombardi, C.; Mazzola, A.

    1997-01-01

    In nuclear power plants, the density of boiling mixtures has a significant relevance due to its influence on the neutronic balance, the power distribution and the reactor dynamics. Since the determination of the two-phase mixture density on a purely analytical basis is in fact impractical in many situations of interest, heuristic relationships have been developed based on the parameters describing the two-phase system. However, the best or even a good structure for the correlation cannot be determined in advance, also considering that it is usually desired to represent the experimental data with the most compact equation. A possible alternative to empirical correlations is the use of artificial neural networks, which allow one to model complex systems without requiring the explicit formulation of the relationships existing among the variables. In this work, the neural network methodology was applied to predict the density data of two-phase mixtures up-flowing in adiabatic channels under different experimental conditions. The trained network predicts the density data with a root-mean-square error of 5.33%, being ∼ 93% of the data points predicted within 10%. When compared with those of two conventional well-proven correlations, i.e. the Zuber-Findlay and the CISE correlations, the neural network performances are significantly better. In spite of the good accuracy of the neural network predictions, the 'black-box' characteristic of the neural model does not allow an easy physical interpretation of the knowledge integrated in the network weights. Therefore, the neural network methodology has the advantage of not requiring a formal correlation structure and of giving very accurate results, but at the expense of a loss of model transparency. (author)

  6. The large-scale ENSO event, the El Niño and other important regional features

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    1993-01-01

    Full Text Available L'EVENEMENT ENSO A GRANDE ECHELLE, EL NIÑO ET AUTRES CARACTERISTIQUES REGIONALES IMPORTANTES. En ce qui concerne cette activité, on a ramassé - et on continue de le faire - une information coordonnée et améliorée. Cependant, les informations année après année sur les changements climatiques en lien avec l’Oscillation du Sud (SO sont limitées de façon primaire à la période comprise entre l’année 622 et nos jours. La fluctuation océano-atmosphérique récurrente et à grande échelle, El Niño/ Oscillation du Sud (ENSO, qui se présente sous les basses latitudes depuis l’Afrique orientale vers l’est jusqu’aux Amériques, se manifeste en gros comme une «balançoire» dans les conditions océano-atmosphériques entre la zone de l’Océan Indien tropical et celles de l’Océan Pacifique tropical. L’ENSO est en lien avec une phase de bas indice de la SO et est associé, du côté occidental de la «balançoire», à une sécheresse en Australie occidentale et septentrionale, une sècheresse par l’est de la mousson en Indonésie, une pluie déficiente de la mousson-est d’été en Inde et une pluie déficiente de la mousson d’été dans la montagne éthiopienne (qui débouche sur une faible contribution au système du Nil. Par opposition, du côté oriental de la «balançoire», celle-ci est en lien avec El Niño, avec des températures superficielles de la mer (TSM anormalement hautes, des pluies au-dessus de la normale dans le Pacifique équatorial central et oriental et des pluies anormalement fortes dans le Chili sub-tropical. Le haut indice (phase anti-Niño de la SO est en lien, du côté occidental de la «balançoire», avec des pluies anormalement fortes en Australe orientale et septentrionale, des pluies de mousson de l’est anormalement fortes en Indonésie, des pluies de mousson d’été au-dessus de la normale en Inde, et une quantité d’eau anormalement grande qui se déverse dans le Nil, suite aux pluies de

  7. Echocardiographic phase imaging to predict reverse remodeling after cardiac resynchronization therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buss, Sebastian J; Humpert, Per M; Bekeredjian, Raffi; Hardt, Stefan E; Zugck, Christian; Schellberg, Dieter; Bauer, Alexander; Filusch, Arthur; Kuecherer, Helmut; Katus, Hugo A; Korosoglou, Grigorios

    2009-05-01

    The aim of our study was to investigate whether echocardiographic phase imaging (EPI) can predict response in patients who are considered for cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT). CRT improves quality of life, exercise capacity, and outcome in patients with bundle-branch block and advanced heart failure. Previous studies used QRS duration to select patients for CRT; the accuracy of this parameter to predict functional recovery, however, is controversial. We examined 42 patients with advanced heart failure (New York Heart Association [NYHA] functional class III to IV, QRS duration >130 ms, and ejection fraction or=15% at 6 to 8 months of follow-up were defined as responders. All others were classified as nonresponders. The Ts-SD and the mean EPI-Index were related to Delta ESV (r = 0.43 for Ts-SD and r = 0.67 for mean EPI-Index, p < 0.01 for both), and both parameters yielded similar accuracy for the prediction of LV remodeling (area under the curve of 0.87 for TDI vs. 0.90 for EPI, difference between areas = 0.03, p = NS) and ejection fraction (EF) improvement (area under the curve of 0.87 for TDI vs. 0.93 for EPI, difference between areas = 0.06, p = NS). Furthermore, patients classified as responders by EPI (mean EPI-Index phase imaging can predict functional recovery, reverse LV remodeling, and clinical outcomes in patients who undergo CRT. EPI is a method that objectively and accurately quantifies LV dyssynchrony and seems to be noninferior to TDI for the prediction of reverse LV remodeling and functional recovery.

  8. Evaluation of Thermodynamic Models for Predicting Phase Equilibria of CO2 + Impurity Binary Mixture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Byeong Soo; Rho, Won Gu; You, Seong-Sik; Kang, Jeong Won; Lee, Chul Soo

    2018-03-01

    For the design and operation of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) processes, equation of state (EoS) models are used for phase equilibrium calculations. Reliability of an EoS model plays a crucial role, and many variations of EoS models have been reported and continue to be published. The prediction of phase equilibria for CO2 mixtures containing SO2, N2, NO, H2, O2, CH4, H2S, Ar, and H2O is important for CO2 transportation because the captured gas normally contains small amounts of impurities even though it is purified in advance. For the design of pipelines in deep sea or arctic conditions, flow assurance and safety are considered priority issues, and highly reliable calculations are required. In this work, predictive Soave-Redlich-Kwong, cubic plus association, Groupe Européen de Recherches Gazières (GERG-2008), perturbed-chain statistical associating fluid theory, and non-random lattice fluids hydrogen bond EoS models were compared regarding performance in calculating phase equilibria of CO2-impurity binary mixtures and with the collected literature data. No single EoS could cover the entire range of systems considered in this study. Weaknesses and strong points of each EoS model were analyzed, and recommendations are given as guidelines for safe design and operation of CCS processes.

  9. Pelton turbine Needle erosion prediction based on 3D three- phase flow simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chongji, Z; Yexiang, X; Wei, Z; Yangyang, Y; Lei, C; Zhengwei, W

    2014-01-01

    Pelton turbine, which applied to the high water head and small flow rate, is widely used in the mountainous area. During the operation period the sediment contained in the water does not only induce the abrasion of the buckets, but also leads to the erosion at the nozzle which may damage the needle structure. The nozzle and needle structure are mainly used to form high quality cylindrical jet and increase the efficiency of energy exchange in the runner to the most. Thus the needle erosion will lead to the deformation of jet, and then may cause the efficiency loss and cavitation. The favourable prediction of abrasion characteristic of needle can effectively guide the optimization design and maintenance of needle structure. This paper simulated the unsteady three-dimensional multi-phase flow in the nozzle and injected jet flow. As the jet containing water and sediment is injected into the free atmosphere air with high velocity, the VOF model was adopted to predict the water and air flow. The sediment is simplified into round solid particle and the discrete particle model (DPM) was employed to predict the needle abrasion characteristic. The sand particle tracks were analyzed to interpret the mechanism of sand erosion on the needle surface. And the numerical result of needle abrasion was obtained and compared with the abrasion field observation. The similarity of abrasion pattern between the numerical results and field observation illustrated the validity of the 3D multi-phase flow simulation method

  10. Pelton turbine Needle erosion prediction based on 3D three- phase flow simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chongji, Z.; Yexiang, X.; Wei, Z.; Yangyang, Y.; Lei, C.; Zhengwei, W.

    2014-03-01

    Pelton turbine, which applied to the high water head and small flow rate, is widely used in the mountainous area. During the operation period the sediment contained in the water does not only induce the abrasion of the buckets, but also leads to the erosion at the nozzle which may damage the needle structure. The nozzle and needle structure are mainly used to form high quality cylindrical jet and increase the efficiency of energy exchange in the runner to the most. Thus the needle erosion will lead to the deformation of jet, and then may cause the efficiency loss and cavitation. The favourable prediction of abrasion characteristic of needle can effectively guide the optimization design and maintenance of needle structure. This paper simulated the unsteady three-dimensional multi-phase flow in the nozzle and injected jet flow. As the jet containing water and sediment is injected into the free atmosphere air with high velocity, the VOF model was adopted to predict the water and air flow. The sediment is simplified into round solid particle and the discrete particle model (DPM) was employed to predict the needle abrasion characteristic. The sand particle tracks were analyzed to interpret the mechanism of sand erosion on the needle surface. And the numerical result of needle abrasion was obtained and compared with the abrasion field observation. The similarity of abrasion pattern between the numerical results and field observation illustrated the validity of the 3D multi-phase flow simulation method.

  11. Validation of model predictions of pore-scale fluid distributions during two-phase flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bultreys, Tom; Lin, Qingyang; Gao, Ying; Raeini, Ali Q.; AlRatrout, Ahmed; Bijeljic, Branko; Blunt, Martin J.

    2018-05-01

    Pore-scale two-phase flow modeling is an important technology to study a rock's relative permeability behavior. To investigate if these models are predictive, the calculated pore-scale fluid distributions which determine the relative permeability need to be validated. In this work, we introduce a methodology to quantitatively compare models to experimental fluid distributions in flow experiments visualized with microcomputed tomography. First, we analyzed five repeated drainage-imbibition experiments on a single sample. In these experiments, the exact fluid distributions were not fully repeatable on a pore-by-pore basis, while the global properties of the fluid distribution were. Then two fractional flow experiments were used to validate a quasistatic pore network model. The model correctly predicted the fluid present in more than 75% of pores and throats in drainage and imbibition. To quantify what this means for the relevant global properties of the fluid distribution, we compare the main flow paths and the connectivity across the different pore sizes in the modeled and experimental fluid distributions. These essential topology characteristics matched well for drainage simulations, but not for imbibition. This suggests that the pore-filling rules in the network model we used need to be improved to make reliable predictions of imbibition. The presented analysis illustrates the potential of our methodology to systematically and robustly test two-phase flow models to aid in model development and calibration.

  12. Theoretical Prediction of Melting Relations in the Deep Mantle: the Phase Diagram Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belmonte, D.; Ottonello, G. A.; Vetuschi Zuccolini, M.; Attene, M.

    2016-12-01

    Despite the outstanding progress in computer technology and experimental facilities, understanding melting phase relations in the deep mantle is still an open challenge. In this work a novel computational scheme to predict melting relations at HP-HT by a combination of first principles DFT calculations, polymer chemistry and equilibrium thermodynamics is presented and discussed. The adopted theoretical framework is physically-consistent and allows to compute multi-component phase diagrams relevant to Earth's deep interior in a broad range of P-T conditions by a convex-hull algorithm for Gibbs free energy minimisation purposely developed for high-rank simplexes. The calculated phase diagrams are in turn used as a source of information to gain new insights on the P-T-X evolution of magmas in the deep mantle, providing some thermodynamic constraints to both present-day and early Earth melting processes. High-pressure melting curves of mantle silicates are also obtained as by-product of phase diagram calculation. Application of the above method to the MgO-Al2O3-SiO2 (MAS) ternary system highlights as pressure effects are not only able to change the nature of melting of some minerals (like olivine and pyroxene) from eutectic to peritectic (and vice versa), but also simplify melting relations by drastically reducing the number of phases with a primary phase field at HP-HT conditions. It turns out that mineral phases like Majorite-Pyrope garnet and Anhydrous Phase B (Mg14Si5O24), which are often disregarded in modelling melting processes of mantle assemblages, are stable phases at solidus or liquidus conditions in a P-T range compatible with the mantle transition zone (i.e. P = 16 - 23 GPa and T = 2200 - 2700 °C) when their thermodynamic and thermophysical properties are properly assessed. Financial support to the Senior Author (D.B.) during his stay as Invited Scientist at the Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris (IPGP, Paris) is warmly acknowledged.

  13. A new phase of ThC at high pressure predicted from a first-principles study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Yongliang; Qiu, Wujie; Ke, Xuezhi; Huai, Ping; Cheng, Cheng; Han, Han; Ren, Cuilan; Zhu, Zhiyuan

    2015-08-01

    The phase transition of thorium monocarbide (ThC) at high pressure has been studied by means of density functional theory. Through structure search, a new phase with space group P 4 / nmm has been predicted. The calculated phonons demonstrate that this new phase and the previous B2 phase are dynamically stable as the external pressure is greater than 60 GPa and 120 GPa, respectively. The transformation from B1 to P 4 / nmm is predicted to be a first-order transition, while that from P 4 / nmm to B2 is found to be a second-order transition.

  14. Do regions outside the tropical Pacific influence ENSO through atmospheric teleconnections?

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Dayan, H.; Izumo, T.; Vialard, J.; Lengaigne, M.; Masson, S

    This paper aims at identifying oceanic regions outside the tropical Pacific, which may influence the El Ni�o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) through interannual modulation of equatorial Pacific winds An Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) 7...

  15. Ocean Chlorophyll as a Precursor of ENSO: An Earth System Modeling Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jong-Yeon; Dunne, John P.; Stock, Charles A.

    2018-02-01

    Ocean chlorophyll concentration, a proxy for phytoplankton, is strongly influenced by internal ocean dynamics such as those associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Observations show that ocean chlorophyll responses to ENSO generally lead sea surface temperature (SST) responses in the equatorial Pacific. A long-term global Earth system model simulation incorporating marine biogeochemical processes also exhibits a preceding chlorophyll response. In contrast to simulated SST anomalies, which significantly lag the wind-driven subsurface heat response to ENSO, chlorophyll anomalies respond rapidly. Iron was found to be the key factor connecting the simulated surface chlorophyll anomalies to the subsurface ocean response. Westerly wind bursts decrease central Pacific chlorophyll by reducing iron supply through wind-driven thermocline deepening but increase western Pacific chlorophyll by enhancing the influx of coastal iron from the maritime continent. Our results mechanistically support the potential for chlorophyll-based indices to inform seasonal ENSO forecasts beyond previously identified SST-based indices.

  16. A two-phase model of plantar tissue: a step toward prediction of diabetic foot ulceration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sciumè, G; Boso, D P; Gray, W G; Cobelli, C; Schrefler, B A

    2014-11-01

    A new computational model, based on the thermodynamically constrained averaging theory, has been recently proposed to predict tumor initiation and proliferation. A similar mathematical approach is proposed here as an aid in diabetic ulcer prevention. The common aspects at the continuum level are the macroscopic balance equations governing the flow of the fluid phase, diffusion of chemical species, tissue mechanics, and some of the constitutive equations. The soft plantar tissue is modeled as a two-phase system: a solid phase consisting of the tissue cells and their extracellular matrix, and a fluid one (interstitial fluid and dissolved chemical species). The solid phase may become necrotic depending on the stress level and on the oxygen availability in the tissue. Actually, in diabetic patients, peripheral vascular disease impacts tissue necrosis; this is considered in the model via the introduction of an effective diffusion coefficient that governs transport of nutrients within the microvasculature. The governing equations of the mathematical model are discretized in space by the finite element method and in time domain using the θ-Wilson Method. While the full mathematical model is developed in this paper, the example is limited to the simulation of several gait cycles of a healthy foot. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  17. A study on two phase flows of linear compressors for the prediction of refrigerant leakage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, Il Sun; Lee, Young Lim; Oh, Won Sik; Park, Kyeong Bae

    2015-01-01

    Usage of linear compressors is on the rise due to their high efficiency. In this paper, leakage of a linear compressor has been studied through numerical analysis and experiments. First, nitrogen leakage for a stagnant piston with fixed cylinder pressure as well as for a moving piston with fixed cylinder pressure was analyzed to verify the validity of the two-phase flow analysis model. Next, refrigerant leakage of a linear compressor in operation was finally predicted through 3-dimensional unsteady, two phase flow CFD (Computational fluid dynamics). According to the research results, the numerical analyses for the fixed cylinder pressure models were in good agreement with the experimental results. The refrigerant leakage of the linear compressor in operation mainly occurred through the oil exit and the leakage became negligible after about 0.4s following operation where the leakage became lower than 2.0x10 -4 kg/s.

  18. Trans-Pacific ENSO teleconnections pose a correlated risk to global agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, W. B.; Seager, R.; Cane, M. A.; Baethgen, W.

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major source of interannual climate variability, particularly in the Pacific Basin. ENSO life-cycles tend to evolve over multiple years, as do the associated trans-Pacific ENSO teleconnections. This analysis, however, represents the first attempt to characterize the structure of the risk posed by ENSO to wheat, maize and soybean production across the Pacific Basin. Our results indicate that most ENSO teleconnections relevant for crop flowering seasons are the result of a single trans-Pacific circulation anomaly that develops in boreal summer and persists through the spring. During the late summer and early fall of a developing ENSO event, the tropical Pacific forces an atmospheric anomaly in the midlatitudes that spans the Pacific Basin. This teleconnection directly links the soybean and maize growing seasons of the US, Mexico and China. It also connects the wheat growing seasons of Argentina, southern Brazil and Australia. The ENSO event peaks in boreal winter, when the atmospheric circulation anomalies intensify and affect maize and soybeans in southeast South America. As the event decays, the ENSO-induced circulation anomalies persist through the wheat flowering seasons in China and the US. While the prospect of ENSO forcing simultaneous droughts in major food producing regions seems disastrous, there may be a silver lining from the perspective of global food security: trans-Pacific ENSO teleconnections to yields are often offsetting between major producing regions in the eastern and western portions of the Pacific Basin. El Niños tend to create good maize and soybean growing conditions in the US and southeast South America, but poor growing conditions in China, Mexico and northeast Brazil. The opposite is true during La Niña. Wheat growing conditions in southeast South America generally have the opposite sign of those in Australia. Finally, we investigate how trade networks interact with this structure of ENSO

  19. Mid- and long-term runoff predictions by an improved phase-space reconstruction model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong, Mei; Wang, Dong; Wang, Yuankun; Zeng, Xiankui; Ge, Shanshan; Yan, Hengqian; Singh, Vijay P.

    2016-01-01

    In recent years, the phase-space reconstruction method has usually been used for mid- and long-term runoff predictions. However, the traditional phase-space reconstruction method is still needs to be improved. Using the genetic algorithm to improve the phase-space reconstruction method, a new nonlinear model of monthly runoff is constructed. The new model does not rely heavily on embedding dimensions. Recognizing that the rainfall–runoff process is complex, affected by a number of factors, more variables (e.g. temperature and rainfall) are incorporated in the model. In order to detect the possible presence of chaos in the runoff dynamics, chaotic characteristics of the model are also analyzed, which shows the model can represent the nonlinear and chaotic characteristics of the runoff. The model is tested for its forecasting performance in four types of experiments using data from six hydrological stations on the Yellow River and the Yangtze River. Results show that the medium-and long-term runoff is satisfactorily forecasted at the hydrological stations. Not only is the forecasting trend accurate, but also the mean absolute percentage error is no more than 15%. Moreover, the forecast results of wet years and dry years are both good, which means that the improved model can overcome the traditional ‘‘wet years and dry years predictability barrier,’’ to some extent. The model forecasts for different regions are all good, showing the universality of the approach. Compared with selected conceptual and empirical methods, the model exhibits greater reliability and stability in the long-term runoff prediction. Our study provides a new thinking for research on the association between the monthly runoff and other hydrological factors, and also provides a new method for the prediction of the monthly runoff. - Highlights: • The improved phase-space reconstruction model of monthly runoff is established. • Two variables (temperature and rainfall) are incorporated

  20. Mid- and long-term runoff predictions by an improved phase-space reconstruction model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hong, Mei [Research Center of Ocean Environment Numerical Simulation, Institute of Meteorology and oceanography, PLA University of Science and Technology, Nanjing (China); Wang, Dong, E-mail: wangdong@nju.edu.cn [Key Laboratory of Surficial Geochemistry, Ministry of Education, Department of Hydrosciences, School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Collaborative Innovation Center of South China Sea Studies, State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093 (China); Wang, Yuankun; Zeng, Xiankui [Key Laboratory of Surficial Geochemistry, Ministry of Education, Department of Hydrosciences, School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Collaborative Innovation Center of South China Sea Studies, State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093 (China); Ge, Shanshan; Yan, Hengqian [Research Center of Ocean Environment Numerical Simulation, Institute of Meteorology and oceanography, PLA University of Science and Technology, Nanjing (China); Singh, Vijay P. [Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering Zachry Department of Civil Engineering, Texas A & M University, College Station, TX 77843 (United States)

    2016-07-15

    In recent years, the phase-space reconstruction method has usually been used for mid- and long-term runoff predictions. However, the traditional phase-space reconstruction method is still needs to be improved. Using the genetic algorithm to improve the phase-space reconstruction method, a new nonlinear model of monthly runoff is constructed. The new model does not rely heavily on embedding dimensions. Recognizing that the rainfall–runoff process is complex, affected by a number of factors, more variables (e.g. temperature and rainfall) are incorporated in the model. In order to detect the possible presence of chaos in the runoff dynamics, chaotic characteristics of the model are also analyzed, which shows the model can represent the nonlinear and chaotic characteristics of the runoff. The model is tested for its forecasting performance in four types of experiments using data from six hydrological stations on the Yellow River and the Yangtze River. Results show that the medium-and long-term runoff is satisfactorily forecasted at the hydrological stations. Not only is the forecasting trend accurate, but also the mean absolute percentage error is no more than 15%. Moreover, the forecast results of wet years and dry years are both good, which means that the improved model can overcome the traditional ‘‘wet years and dry years predictability barrier,’’ to some extent. The model forecasts for different regions are all good, showing the universality of the approach. Compared with selected conceptual and empirical methods, the model exhibits greater reliability and stability in the long-term runoff prediction. Our study provides a new thinking for research on the association between the monthly runoff and other hydrological factors, and also provides a new method for the prediction of the monthly runoff. - Highlights: • The improved phase-space reconstruction model of monthly runoff is established. • Two variables (temperature and rainfall) are incorporated

  1. Phase Space Prediction of Chaotic Time Series with Nu-Support Vector Machine Regression

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ye Meiying; Wang Xiaodong

    2005-01-01

    A new class of support vector machine, nu-support vector machine, is discussed which can handle both classification and regression. We focus on nu-support vector machine regression and use it for phase space prediction of chaotic time series. The effectiveness of the method is demonstrated by applying it to the Henon map. This study also compares nu-support vector machine with back propagation (BP) networks in order to better evaluate the performance of the proposed methods. The experimental results show that the nu-support vector machine regression obtains lower root mean squared error than the BP networks and provides an accurate chaotic time series prediction. These results can be attributable to the fact that nu-support vector machine implements the structural risk minimization principle and this leads to better generalization than the BP networks.

  2. Numerical predictions of bubbly two-phase flows with OpenFOAM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Michta, E.; Fu, K.; Anglart, H.; Angele, K.

    2011-01-01

    A new model for simulation of bubbly two-phase flows has been developed and implemented into an open-source Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) code OpenFOAM. The model employs the two-fluid framework with closure relationships for the interfacial momentum transfer. The bubble size is calculated based on the solution of the interfacial area concentration equations. The predictions are validated against a wide range of experimental data containing measured void fraction, the phasic velocity and the interfacial area concentration. The new model demonstrates the ability to capture the wall peaking of void fraction for small bubbles. The predicted levels of void fraction and phasic velocities are in good agreement with measured data. (author)

  3. Numerical Predictions of Bubbly Two-Phase Flows with OpenFOAM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edouard Michta

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available A new model for simulation of bubbly two-phase flows has been developed and implemented into an open-source Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD code OpenFOAM. The model employs the two-fluid framework with closure relationships for the interfacial momentum transfer. The bubble size is calculated based on the solution of the transport equation of the interfacial area concentration. The predictions are validated against selected data obtained in the DEDALE experiment and containing the measured void fraction, the phasic velocities and the interfacial area concentration. In general, good agreement between calculated and measured data is demonstrated; however, the relative phasic velocity is systematically over-predicted. The levels of void fraction and the observed wall void peaking are well captured in the calculations.

  4. On the role of ozone feedback in the ENSO amplitude response under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowack, P. J.; Braesicke, P.; Abraham, N. L.; Pyle, J. A.

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific is of key importance to global climate and weather. However, climate models still disagree on the ENSO's response under climate change. Here we show that typical model representations of ozone can have a first-order impact on ENSO amplitude projections in climate sensitivity simulations (i.e. standard abrupt 4xCO2). We mainly explain this effect by the lapse rate adjustment of the tropical troposphere to ozone changes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) under 4xCO2. The ozone-induced lapse rate changes modify the Walker circulation response to the CO2 forcing and consequently tropical Pacific surface temperature gradients. Therefore, not including ozone feedbacks increases the number of extreme ENSO events in our model. In addition, we demonstrate that even if ozone changes in the tropical UTLS are included in the simulations, the neglect of the ozone response in the middle-upper stratosphere still leads to significantly larger ENSO amplitudes (compared to simulations run with a fully interactive atmospheric chemistry scheme). Climate modeling studies of the ENSO often neglect changes in ozone. Our results imply that this could affect the inter-model spread found in ENSO projections and, more generally, surface climate change simulations. We discuss the additional complexity in quantifying such ozone-related effects that arises from the apparent model dependency of chemistry-climate feedbacks and, possibly, their range of surface climate impacts. In conclusion, we highlight the need to understand better the coupling between ozone, the tropospheric circulation, and climate variability. Reference: Nowack PJ, Braesicke P, Abraham NL, and Pyle JA (2017), On the role of ozone feedback in the ENSO amplitude response under global warming, Geophys. Res. Lett. 44, 3858-3866, doi:10.1002/2016GL072418.

  5. Predicting sugar consumption: Application of an integrated dual-process, dual-phase model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagger, Martin S; Trost, Nadine; Keech, Jacob J; Chan, Derwin K C; Hamilton, Kyra

    2017-09-01

    Excess consumption of added dietary sugars is related to multiple metabolic problems and adverse health conditions. Identifying the modifiable social cognitive and motivational constructs that predict sugar consumption is important to inform behavioral interventions aimed at reducing sugar intake. We tested the efficacy of an integrated dual-process, dual-phase model derived from multiple theories to predict sugar consumption. Using a prospective design, university students (N = 90) completed initial measures of the reflective (autonomous and controlled motivation, intentions, attitudes, subjective norm, perceived behavioral control), impulsive (implicit attitudes), volitional (action and coping planning), and behavioral (past sugar consumption) components of the proposed model. Self-reported sugar consumption was measured two weeks later. A structural equation model revealed that intentions, implicit attitudes, and, indirectly, autonomous motivation to reduce sugar consumption had small, significant effects on sugar consumption. Attitudes, subjective norm, and, indirectly, autonomous motivation to reduce sugar consumption predicted intentions. There were no effects of the planning constructs. Model effects were independent of the effects of past sugar consumption. The model identified the relative contribution of reflective and impulsive components in predicting sugar consumption. Given the prominent role of the impulsive component, interventions that assist individuals in managing cues-to-action and behavioral monitoring are likely to be effective in regulating sugar consumption. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. El Nino, La Nina and the Colombian hydrology prediction and forecast

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poveda J, G.; Mesa S, O.J.

    1995-01-01

    The climatic phenomenon known as El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Phenomenon has two phases: El Nino (Warm Phase) and La Nina (Cold phase). Both phases (Warm and cold) insult the Earth Planet hydrology and climatology and particularly the South America tropical zone, something which includes Colombia. This oscillation (Warm and cold) occurs in monthly time scale to multi - annual (until 6 years) time scale. As a rule, El Nino produces stronger and extended dry periods, while La Nina increases rains frequency and produces maximum wealth in water currents. A quantitative analysis of both phases (warm and cold) influence in Colombian rivers wealth measured in 50 different stations is presented. Also the frequency histograms, the average and the typical deviation of wealth monthly average for El Nino years and La Nina years, as well as for the evaluated total period are presented. With the objective of confirming the strong influence that exercise the oceanic- atmospherical phenomena that occur in South Pacific Ocean on Colombian hydrology, correlation analysis with Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and temperatures variation on Indian and Pacific Ocean is presented. The topic ENSO phenomenon Predictions and Forecasts with relation to planning of hydraulics resources managing projects at Colombia is discussed

  7. Empirically derived climate predictability over the extratropical northern hemisphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. B. Elsner

    1994-01-01

    Full Text Available A novel application of a technique developed from chaos theory is used in describing seasonal to interannual climate predictability over the Northern Hemisphere (NH. The technique is based on an empirical forecast scheme - local approximation in a reconstructed phase space - for time-series data. Data are monthly 500 hPa heights on a latitude-longitude grid covering the NH from 20° N to the equator. Predictability is estimated based on the linear correlation between actual and predicted heights averaged over a forecast range of one- to twelve.month lead. The method is capable of extracting the major climate signals on this time scale including ENSO and the North Atlantic Oscillation.

  8. Increasing water cycle extremes in California and in relation to ENSO cycle under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, Jin-Ho; Wang, S-Y Simon; Gillies, Robert R.; Kravitz, Ben; Hipps, Lawrence; Rasch, Philip J.

    2015-01-01

    Since the winter of 2013–2014, California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history, causing statewide water stress, severe economic loss and an extraordinary increase in wildfires. Identifying the effects of global warming on regional water cycle extremes, such as the ongoing drought in California, remains a challenge. Here we analyse large-ensemble and multi-model simulations that project the future of water cycle extremes in California as well as to understand those associations that pertain to changing climate oscillations under global warming. Both intense drought and excessive flooding are projected to increase by at least 50% towards the end of the twenty-first century; this projected increase in water cycle extremes is associated with a strengthened relation to El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—in particular, extreme El Niño and La Niña events that modulate California's climate not only through its warm and cold phases but also its precursor patterns. PMID:26487088

  9. Tropical cyclone genesis in the Southern Hemisphere and its relationship with the ENSO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuleshov, Y.; Qi, L. [Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC (Australia). National Climate Centre; Chane Ming, F.; Chouaibou, I.; Hoareau, C. [UMR CNRS-Meteo-France-Univ. de la Reunion, La Reunion (France). Lab. de l' Atmosphere et des Cyclones; Roux, F. [Paul Sabatier Univ., CNRS, Toulouse (France). Lab. d' Aerologie

    2009-07-01

    Tropical cyclogenesis climatology over the South Indian and South Pacific Oceans has been developed using a new tropical cyclone (TC) archive for the Southern Hemisphere, and changes in geographical distribution of areas favourable for TC genesis related to changes in the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases have been investigated. To explain these changes, large-scale environmental variables which influence TC genesis and development such as sea surface temperatures (SSTs), relative humidity in mid-troposphere, vertical wind shear and lower tropospheric vorticity have been examined. In the South Indian Ocean, reduction of TC genesis in the western part of the basin and its increase in the eastern part as well as displacement of the area favourable for TC genesis further away from the equator during La Nina events compared to El Nino events can be explained by changes in geographical distribution of relative humidity and vorticity across the basin as primary contributors; positive anomalies of SSTs observed during La Nina seasons in the eastern part of the basin additionally contribute to enhanced cyclogenesis near the Western Australia. In the South Pacific Ocean, changes in geographical distribution of relative humidity and vorticity appear to be the key large-scale environmental factors responsible for enhanced TC genesis in the eastern (western) part of the basin as well as for the northeast (southwest) shift of points of cyclogenesis during El Nino (La Nina) events, with vertical wind shear and SSTs as additional contributing large-scale environmental variables. (orig.)

  10. Quantifying the Pathway and Predicting Spontaneous Emulsification during Material Exchange in a Two Phase Liquid System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spooner, Stephen; Rahnama, Alireza; Warnett, Jason M; Williams, Mark A; Li, Zushu; Sridhar, Seetharaman

    2017-10-30

    Kinetic restriction of a thermodynamically favourable equilibrium is a common theme in materials processing. The interfacial instability in systems where rate of material exchange is far greater than the mass transfer through respective bulk phases is of specific interest when tracking the transient interfacial area, a parameter integral to short processing times for productivity streamlining in all manufacturing where interfacial reaction occurs. This is even more pertinent in high-temperature systems for energy and cost savings. Here the quantified physical pathway of interfacial area change due to material exchange in liquid metal-molten oxide systems is presented. In addition the predicted growth regime and emulsification behaviour in relation to interfacial tension as modelled using phase-field methodology is shown. The observed in-situ emulsification behaviour links quantitatively the geometry of perturbations as a validation method for the development of simulating the phenomena. Thus a method is presented to both predict and engineer the formation of micro emulsions to a desired specification.

  11. Hydro-climatic variability over the Andes of Colombia associated with ENSO: a review of climatic processes and their impact on one of the Earth's most important biodiversity hotspots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poveda, Germán; Álvarez, Diana M.; Rueda, Óscar A.

    2011-06-01

    The hydro-climatic variability of the Colombian Andes associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is reviewed using records of rainfall, river discharges, soil moisture, and a vegetation index (NDVI) as a surrogate for evapotranspiration. Anomalies in the components of the surface water balance during both phases of ENSO are quantified in terms of their sign, timing, and magnitude. During El Niño (La Niña), the region experiences negative (positive) anomalies in rainfall, river discharges (average and extremes), soil moisture, and NDVI. ENSO's effects are phase-locked to the seasonal cycle, being stronger during December-February, and weaker during March-May. Besides, rainfall and river discharges anomalies show that the ENSO signal exhibits a westerly wave-like propagation, being stronger (weaker) and earlier (later) over the western (eastern) Andes. Soil moisture anomalies are land-cover type dependant, but overall they are enhanced by ENSO, showing very low values during El Niño (mainly during dry seasons), but saturation values during La Niña. A suite of large-scale and regional mechanisms cooperating at the ocean-atmosphere-land system are reviewed to explaining the identified hydro-climatic anomalies. This review contributes to an understanding of the hydro-climatic framework of a region identified as the most critical hotspot for biodiversity on Earth, and constitutes a wake-up call for scientists and policy-makers alike, to take actions and mobilize resources and minds to prevent the further destruction of the region's valuable hydrologic and biodiversity resources and ecosystems. It also sheds lights towards the implementation of strategies and adaptation plans to coping with threats from global environmental change.

  12. Hydro-climatic variability over the Andes of Colombia associated with ENSO: a review of climatic processes and their impact on one of the Earth's most important biodiversity hotspots

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poveda, German; Alvarez, Diana M. [Universidad Nacional de Colombia, School of Geosciences and Environment, Medellin (Colombia); Rueda, Oscar A. [Universidad Nacional de Colombia, School of Geosciences and Environment, Medellin (Colombia); Grupo HTM, Medellin (Colombia)

    2011-06-15

    The hydro-climatic variability of the Colombian Andes associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is reviewed using records of rainfall, river discharges, soil moisture, and a vegetation index (NDVI) as a surrogate for evapotranspiration. Anomalies in the components of the surface water balance during both phases of ENSO are quantified in terms of their sign, timing, and magnitude. During El Nino (La Nina), the region experiences negative (positive) anomalies in rainfall, river discharges (average and extremes), soil moisture, and NDVI. ENSO's effects are phase-locked to the seasonal cycle, being stronger during December-February, and weaker during March-May. Besides, rainfall and river discharges anomalies show that the ENSO signal exhibits a westerly wave-like propagation, being stronger (weaker) and earlier (later) over the western (eastern) Andes. Soil moisture anomalies are land-cover type dependant, but overall they are enhanced by ENSO, showing very low values during El Nino (mainly during dry seasons), but saturation values during La Nina. A suite of large-scale and regional mechanisms cooperating at the ocean-atmosphere-land system are reviewed to explaining the identified hydro-climatic anomalies. This review contributes to an understanding of the hydro-climatic framework of a region identified as the most critical hotspot for biodiversity on Earth, and constitutes a wake-up call for scientists and policy-makers alike, to take actions and mobilize resources and minds to prevent the further destruction of the region's valuable hydrologic and biodiversity resources and ecosystems. It also sheds lights towards the implementation of strategies and adaptation plans to coping with threats from global environmental change. (orig.)

  13. Study of Monte Carlo Simulation Method for Methane Phase Diagram Prediction using Two Different Potential Models

    KAUST Repository

    Kadoura, Ahmad

    2011-06-06

    Lennard‐Jones (L‐J) and Buckingham exponential‐6 (exp‐6) potential models were used to produce isotherms for methane at temperatures below and above critical one. Molecular simulation approach, particularly Monte Carlo simulations, were employed to create these isotherms working with both canonical and Gibbs ensembles. Experiments in canonical ensemble with each model were conducted to estimate pressures at a range of temperatures above methane critical temperature. Results were collected and compared to experimental data existing in literature; both models showed an elegant agreement with the experimental data. In parallel, experiments below critical temperature were run in Gibbs ensemble using L‐J model only. Upon comparing results with experimental ones, a good fit was obtained with small deviations. The work was further developed by adding some statistical studies in order to achieve better understanding and interpretation to the estimated quantities by the simulation. Methane phase diagrams were successfully reproduced by an efficient molecular simulation technique with different potential models. This relatively simple demonstration shows how powerful molecular simulation methods could be, hence further applications on more complicated systems are considered. Prediction of phase behavior of elemental sulfur in sour natural gases has been an interesting and challenging field in oil and gas industry. Determination of elemental sulfur solubility conditions helps avoiding all kinds of problems caused by its dissolution in gas production and transportation processes. For this purpose, further enhancement to the methods used is to be considered in order to successfully simulate elemental sulfur phase behavior in sour natural gases mixtures.

  14. Thrombus length discrepancy on dual-phase CT can predict clinical outcome in acute ischemic stroke

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Mina; Kim, Kyung-eun; Lee, Seung-Koo; Shin, Na-Young; Lim, Soo Mee; Song, Dongbeom; Heo, Ji Hoe; Kim, Jin Woo; Oh, Se Won

    2016-01-01

    The thrombus length may be overestimated on early arterial computed tomography angiography (CTA) depending on the collateral status. We evaluated the value of a grading system based on the thrombus length discrepancy on dual-phase CT in outcome prediction. Forty-eight acute ischemic stroke patients with M1 occlusion were included. Dual-phase CT protocol encompassed non-contrast enhanced CT, CTA with a bolus tracking technique, and delayed contrast enhanced CT (CECT) performed 40s after contrast injection. The thrombus length discrepancy between CTA and CECT was graded by using a three-point scale: G0 = no difference; G1 = no difference in thrombus length, but in attenuation distal to thrombus; G2 = difference in thrombus length. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to define independent predictors of poor clinical outcome at 3 months. The thrombus discrepancy grade showed significant linear relationships with both the collateral status (P = 0.008) and the presence of antegrade flow on DSA (P = 0.010) with good interobserver agreement (κ = 0.868). In a multivariate model, the presence of thrombus length discrepancy (G2) was an independent predictor of poor clinical outcome [odds ratio = 11.474 (1.350-97.547); P =0.025]. The presence of thrombus length discrepancy on dual-phase CT may be a useful predictor of unfavourable clinical outcome in acute M1 occlusion patients. (orig.)

  15. Online Epileptic Seizure Prediction Using Wavelet-Based Bi-Phase Correlation of Electrical Signals Tomography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vahabi, Zahra; Amirfattahi, Rasoul; Shayegh, Farzaneh; Ghassemi, Fahimeh

    2015-09-01

    Considerable efforts have been made in order to predict seizures. Among these methods, the ones that quantify synchronization between brain areas, are the most important methods. However, to date, a practically acceptable result has not been reported. In this paper, we use a synchronization measurement method that is derived according to the ability of bi-spectrum in determining the nonlinear properties of a system. In this method, first, temporal variation of the bi-spectrum of different channels of electro cardiography (ECoG) signals are obtained via an extended wavelet-based time-frequency analysis method; then, to compare different channels, the bi-phase correlation measure is introduced. Since, in this way, the temporal variation of the amount of nonlinear coupling between brain regions, which have not been considered yet, are taken into account, results are more reliable than the conventional phase-synchronization measures. It is shown that, for 21 patients of FSPEEG database, bi-phase correlation can discriminate the pre-ictal and ictal states, with very low false positive rates (FPRs) (average: 0.078/h) and high sensitivity (100%). However, the proposed seizure predictor still cannot significantly overcome the random predictor for all patients.

  16. Effects of source and receiver locations in predicting room transfer functions by a phased beam tracing method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeong, Cheol-Ho; Ih, Jeong-Guon

    2012-01-01

    The accuracy of a phased beam tracing method in predicting transfer functions is investigated with a special focus on the positions of the source and receiver. Simulated transfer functions for various source-receiver pairs using the phased beam tracing method were compared with analytical Green’s...

  17. ENSO activity during the last climate cycle using Individual Foraminifera Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leduc, G.; Vidal, L.; Thirumalai, K.

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the principal mode of interannual climate variability and affects key climate parameters such as low-latitude rainfall variability. Recent climate modeling experiments tend to suggest an increase in the frequency of both El Niño and La Niña events in the future, but these results remain model-dependent and require to be validated by paleodata-model comparisons. Fossil corals indicate that the ENSO variance during the 20th century is particularly high as compared to other time periods of the Holocene. Beyond the Holocene, however, little is known on past ENSO changes, which makes difficult to test paleoclimate model simulations that are used to study the ENSO sensitivity to various types of forcings. We have expanded an Individual Foraminifera Analysis (IFA) dataset using the thermocline-dwelling N. dutertrei on a marine core collected in the Panama Basin (Leduc et al., 2009), that has proven to be a skillful way to reconstruct the ENSO (Thirumalai et al., 2013). Our new IFA dataset comprehensively covers the Holocene, allowing to verify how the IFA method compares with ENSO reconstructions using corals. The dataset then extends back in time to Marine Isotope Stage 6 (MIS), with a special focus the last deglaciation and Termination II (MIS5/6) time windows, as well as key time periods to tests the sensitivity of ENSO to ice volume and orbital parameters. The new dataset confirms variable ENSO activity during the Holocene and weaker activity during LGM than during the Holocene, as a recent isotope-enabled climate model simulations of the LGM suggests (Zhu et al., 2017). Such pattern is reproduced for the Termination II. Leduc, G., L. Vidal, O. Cartapanis, and E. Bard (2009), Modes of eastern equatorial Pacific thermocline variability: Implications for ENSO dynamics over the last glacial period, Paleoceanography, 24, PA3202, doi:10.1029/2008PA001701. Thirumalai, K., J. W. Partin, C. S. Jackson, and T. M. Quinn (2013

  18. Comparison of simplified models in the prediction of two phase flow in pipelines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jerez-Carrizales, M.; Jaramillo, J. E.; Fuentes, D.

    2014-06-01

    Prediction of two phase flow in pipelines is a common task in engineering. It is a complex phenomenon and many models have been developed to find an approximate solution to the problem. Some old models, such as the Hagedorn & Brown (HB) model, have been highlighted by many authors to give very good performance. Furthermore, many modifications have been applied to this method to improve its predictions. In this work two simplified models which are based on empiricism (HB and Mukherjee and Brill, MB) are considered. One mechanistic model which is based on the physics of the phenomenon (AN) and it still needs some correlations called closure relations is also used. Moreover, a drift flux model defined in steady state that is flow pattern dependent (HK model) is implemented. The implementation of these methods was tested using published data in the scientific literature for vertical upward flows. Furthermore, a comparison of the predictive performance of the four models is done against a well from Campo Escuela Colorado. Difference among four models is smaller than difference with experimental data from the well in Campo Escuela Colorado.

  19. Influence of ENSO on Regional Indian Summer Monsoon Precipitation—Local Atmospheric Influences or Remote Influence from Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Indrani Roy

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Using CMIP5 model outputs in different El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO phases, this work investigates the indicator that could be used as an Index to characterise regional Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM precipitation. Dividing the Indian subcontinent into five arbitrarily chosen regions, viz. Central North East (CNE (18°N–31°N, 86°E–75°E, Hilly (H (28°N–38°N, 85°E–70°E, North West (NW (21°N–31°N, 79°E–67°E, North East (NE (21°N–31°N, 86°E–97°E and Southern India (S (18°N–7°N, 73°E–85°E, local wind field and remote influences from the tropical Pacific are considered to improve understanding of regional monsoon rainfall. Results are also compared with observations/reanalysis data to pinpoint areas of shortcomings and agreements. Model results suggest that regional wind velocity, viz. meridional wind component (V at 850 mb level (V850 and zonal component at 200 mb (U200 and 850 mb (U850 can yield better estimation of local precipitation in regions CNE, H and NW, agreeing well with earlier proposed monsoon Indices. Such observations are independent of different subcategories of ENSO phases and models show good correspondence with observations. Analyses with V at 200 mb (V200 indicate circulation of the upper branch of Hadley cells in regions CNE and S, though suggest the best agreement among models in comparison with other fields, but there are some deviations from observations, indicating a missing mechanism in the models. Using models, this study identified the best parameter in different regions that could be used for the regional monsoon Index, irrespective of various ENSO subcategories; for CNE it is the U200, for H it is U200 and U850, and for NW it is U850. The current analysis, however, fails to indicate anything clearly about the NE region. When focusing on the remote influence from the eastern Pacific region, it is found that atmospheric contribution to regional ISM precipitation fails to indicate

  20. The prediction and representation of phase equilibria and physicochemical properties in complex coal ash slag systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    E. Jak; A. Kondratiev; S. Christie; P.C. Hayes [Centre for Coal in Sustainable Development (CCSD), Brisbane (Australia)

    2003-07-01

    A range of problems in coal utilisation technologies, including ash slag flow in slagging gasifiers, deposit formation, slagging, fouling, fusibility tests, fluxing, blending etc, are related to the melting behaviour of the mineral matter in the coal. To assist with solving these practical issues i) thermodynamic modelling of phase equilibria, and ii) viscosity modelling studies are being undertaken at the Pyrometallurgy Research Centre (The University of Queensland, Australia) with support from the Collaborative Research Centre for Coal in Sustainable Development (CCSD). The thermodynamic modelling has been carried out using the computer system FactSage, which is used for the calculation of multi-phase slag / solid / gas / matte / alloy / salt equilibria in multi-component systems of industrial interest. A modified quasi-chemical solution model is used for the liquid slag phase. New model optimisations have been carried out, which have significantly improved the accuracy of the thermodynamic models for coal combustion processes. Viscosity modelling, using a modified Urbain formalism, is carried out in conjunction with FactSage calculations to predict the viscosities of fully liquid as well as heterogeneous, partly crystallised slags. Custom designed software packages are developed using these fundamental models for wider use by industrial researchers and engineers, and for incorporation as process control modules. The new custom-designed computer software package can be used to produce limiting operability diagrams for slag systems. These diagrams are used to describe phase equilibria and physico-chemical properties in complex slag systems. The approach is illustrated with calculations on the system SiO{sub 2}-Al{sub 2}O{sub 3}-FeO-Fe{sub 2}O{sub 3}-CaO at metallic iron saturation, slags produced in coal slagging gasifiers. 28 refs., 7 figs., 1 tab.

  1. The influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles on wave-driven sea-floor sediment mobility along the central California continental margin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storlazzi, Curt D.; Reid, Jane A.

    2010-01-01

    Ocean surface waves are the dominant temporally and spatially variable process influencing sea floor sediment resuspension along most continental shelves. Wave-induced sediment mobility on the continental shelf and upper continental slope off central California for different phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events was modeled using monthly statistics derived from more than 14 years of concurrent hourly oceanographic and meteorologic data as boundary input for the Delft SWAN wave model, gridded sea floor grain-size data from the usSEABED database, and regional bathymetry. Differences as small as 0.5 m in wave height, 1 s in wave period, and 10° in wave direction, in conjunction with the spatially heterogeneous unconsolidated sea-floor sedimentary cover, result in significant changes in the predicted mobility of continental shelf surficial sediment in the study area. El Niño events result in more frequent mobilization on the inner shelf in the summer and winter than during La Niña events and on the outer shelf and upper slope in the winter months, while La Niña events result in more frequent mobilization on the mid-shelf during spring and summer months than during El Niño events. The timing and patterns of seabed mobility are addressed in context of geologic and biologic processes. By understanding the spatial and temporal variability in the disturbance of the sea floor, scientists can better interpret sedimentary patterns and ecosystem structure, while providing managers and planners an understanding of natural impacts when considering the permitting of offshore activities that disturb the sea floor such as trawling, dredging, and the emplacement of sea-floor engineering structures.

  2. Diversity in the representation of large-scale circulation associated with ENSO-Indian summer monsoon teleconnections in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramu, Dandi A.; Chowdary, Jasti S.; Ramakrishna, S. S. V. S.; Kumar, O. S. R. U. B.

    2018-04-01

    Realistic simulation of large-scale circulation patterns associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is vital in coupled models in order to represent teleconnections to different regions of globe. The diversity in representing large-scale circulation patterns associated with ENSO-Indian summer monsoon (ISM) teleconnections in 23 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models is examined. CMIP5 models have been classified into three groups based on the correlation between Niño3.4 sea surface temperature (SST) index and ISM rainfall anomalies, models in group 1 (G1) overestimated El Niño-ISM teleconections and group 3 (G3) models underestimated it, whereas these teleconnections are better represented in group 2 (G2) models. Results show that in G1 models, El Niño-induced Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) SST anomalies are not well represented. Anomalous low-level anticyclonic circulation anomalies over the southeastern TIO and western subtropical northwest Pacific (WSNP) cyclonic circulation are shifted too far west to 60° E and 120° E, respectively. This bias in circulation patterns implies dry wind advection from extratropics/midlatitudes to Indian subcontinent. In addition to this, large-scale upper level convergence together with lower level divergence over ISM region corresponding to El Niño are stronger in G1 models than in observations. Thus, unrealistic shift in low-level circulation centers corroborated by upper level circulation changes are responsible for overestimation of ENSO-ISM teleconnections in G1 models. Warm Pacific SST anomalies associated with El Niño are shifted too far west in many G3 models unlike in the observations. Further large-scale circulation anomalies over the Pacific and ISM region are misrepresented during El Niño years in G3 models. Too strong upper-level convergence away from Indian subcontinent and too weak WSNP cyclonic circulation are prominent in most of G3 models in which ENSO-ISM teleconnections are

  3. Predictive Pulse Pattern Current Modulation Scheme for Harmonic Reduction in Three-Phase Multidrive Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davari, Pooya; Yang, Yongheng; Zare, Firuz

    2016-01-01

    at the rectification stage to synthesize sinusoidal input currents. The input voltage sensing is avoided in order to minimize the number of required sensors, and the grid synchronization also has been implemented based on a common Phase-Locked-Loop (PLL) using the DC-link capacitor voltage ripple. Experimental results......The majority of the industrial motor drive systems are equipped with the conventional line-commutated front-end rectifiers, and being one of the main sources of harmonics in the power line. While a parallel combination of these drive units elevates current quality issues, a proper arrangement...... of them can lead to the cancellation of specific harmonics. This paper proposes a new cost-effective harmonic mitigation solution for multi-drive systems using a predictive pulse pattern current modulation control strategy. The proposed technique applies suitable interaction among parallel drive units...

  4. Prediction of pressure induced structural phase transitions and internal mode frequency changes in solid N2+

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Etters, R.D.; Kobashi, K.; Chandrasekharan, V.

    1983-01-01

    A rhombohedral distortion of the Pm3n structure is introduced which shows that a low temperature phase transition occurs from P4 2 /mnm into the R3c calcite structure at P approx. = 19.2 kbar with a volume change of 0.125 cm 3 /mole. This transition agrees with recent Raman scattering measurements. Another transition from R3c into R3m is predicted at P approx. = 67.5 kbar, with a volume change of 0.1 cm 3 /mole. The pressure dependence of the intramolecular mode frequencies for the R3c structure is in reasonably good agreement with the two main branches observed experimentally

  5. Analytical Modeling Of The Steinmetz Coefficient For Single-Phase Transformer Eddy Current Loss Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Aly Saandy

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract This article presents to an analytical calculation methodology of the Steinmetz coefficient applied to the prediction of Eddy current loss in a single-phase transformer. Based on the electrical circuit theory the active power consumed by the core is expressed analytically in function of the electrical parameters as resistivity and the geometrical dimensions of the core. The proposed modeling approach is established with the duality parallel series. The required coefficient is identified from the empirical Steinmetz data based on the experimented active power expression. To verify the relevance of the model validations both by simulations with two in two different frequencies and measurements were carried out. The obtained results are in good agreement with the theoretical approach and the practical results.

  6. Predicting dermal absorption of gas-phase chemicals: transient model development, evaluation, and application

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gong, M.; Zhang, Y.; Weschler, Charles J.

    2014-01-01

    A transient model is developed to predict dermal absorption of gas-phase chemicals via direct air-to-skin-to-blood transport under non-steady-state conditions. It differs from published models in that it considers convective mass-transfer resistance in the boundary layer of air adjacent to the skin....... Results calculated with this transient model are in good agreement with the limited experimental results that are available for comparison. The sensitivity of the modeled estimates to key parameters is examined. The model is then used to estimate air-to-skin-to-blood absorption of six phthalate esters...... and less absorbed into blood than would a steady-state model. In the 7-day scenario, results calculated by the transient and steady-state models converge over a time period that varies between 3 and 4days for all but the largest phthalate (DEHP). Dermal intake is comparable to or larger than inhalation...

  7. Contrasting biogeochemical responses of ENSO induced upwelling variability in the Humboldt Current System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franco, Ana C.; Gruber, Nicolas; Münnich, Matthias

    2017-04-01

    The Humboldt Current System (HCS) is one of the most productive ecosystems in the world. This high productivity is supported by a large input of nutrients from the subsurface layers to the surface due to year-round upwelling. However, upwelling also supplies waters with low pH and low aragonite saturation state potentially affecting many organisms, especially those that calcify. The influence, extent and source of upwelled water vary substantially on interannual timescales in association with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, generating natural contrasting responses on the biogeochemistry of this system. Here we analyze these responses using an eddy resolving, basin-scale ocean model that covers the whole Pacific Ocean with high resolution (4 km) on the west coast of South America. We performed a simulation of the last 30 years (hindcast simulation) that allows us to investigate the influence of at least eight El Niño episodes and eight La Niña episodes on productivity variations and changes in oxygen concentration and aragonite saturation state. An absolute change in surface omega aragonite of almost 2 units, as well as an absolute change of the aragonite saturation depth of 200 m result from the change of an El Niño phase to a La Niña phase. This variability is on the same order of magnitude as the projected change in the aragonite saturation state in a centennial timescale. During La Niña events, a lower aragonite saturation state values and reduced oxygen concentration in the surface layer are a direct consequence of enhanced upwelling and increased net primary productivity. The opposite is true during El Niño events, where high values of omega aragonite occur in concordance with extraordinarily low net primary productivity values.

  8. On the control and prediction of the heating patterns of the annular phased array hyperthermia system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iskander, M.F.; Turner, P.F.; Knight, G.

    1984-01-01

    In previous publications the authors examined the electromagnetic (EM) power deposition and heating of the Annular Phased Array (APA) system developed by BSD Medical Corporation, using numerical EM and thermodynamics modeling. In this paper the results of recent efforts to vary and control the heating patterns produced by this system are described. in particular, data from several numerical simulations and experimental measurements are presented which illustrate the effect on the heating patterns achieved by varying the phase difference between the different ports of the APA system. Other heating patterns, produced by inactivating some of the APA ports, are also discussed. The remainder of the paper focuses on the feasibility of predicting the EM power depositions patterns of the APA solely through monitoring the E-field in the water bolus around the patient's body. In particular, it is shown that this E-field distribution depends primarily upon the outer geometry of the human body and is largely insensitive to the detailed distribution of inner tissues. Specific suggestions regarding the types, number, and location of E-field probes that can be used for such measurements are also given

  9. Application of Statistical Thermodynamics To Predict the Adsorption Properties of Polypeptides in Reversed-Phase HPLC.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarasova, Irina A; Goloborodko, Anton A; Perlova, Tatyana Y; Pridatchenko, Marina L; Gorshkov, Alexander V; Evreinov, Victor V; Ivanov, Alexander R; Gorshkov, Mikhail V

    2015-07-07

    The theory of critical chromatography for biomacromolecules (BioLCCC) describes polypeptide retention in reversed-phase HPLC using the basic principles of statistical thermodynamics. However, whether this theory correctly depicts a variety of empirical observations and laws introduced for peptide chromatography over the last decades remains to be determined. In this study, by comparing theoretical results with experimental data, we demonstrate that the BioLCCC: (1) fits the empirical dependence of the polypeptide retention on the amino acid sequence length with R(2) > 0.99 and allows in silico determination of the linear regression coefficients of the log-length correction in the additive model for arbitrary sequences and lengths and (2) predicts the distribution coefficients of polypeptides with an accuracy from 0.98 to 0.99 R(2). The latter enables direct calculation of the retention factors for given solvent compositions and modeling of the migration dynamics of polypeptides separated under isocratic or gradient conditions. The obtained results demonstrate that the suggested theory correctly relates the main aspects of polypeptide separation in reversed-phase HPLC.

  10. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO and global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Nyenzi

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available It is widely accepted by the international scientific community that human activities have increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG and aerosols since the pre-industrial era. This increase has contributed to most of the warming (0.6±0.2°C observed over the 20th century, land areas warming more than the oceans, with the 1990s very likely to be the warmest decade of the 20th century (IPCC, 2001. How this warming influences the occurrence, severity and frequency of ENSO episodes remains highly uncertain. The IPCC (2001 assessment of the scientific literature found insufficient evidence to suggest any direct attribution between increase in ENSO events that occurred in the last 20 to 30 years of the 20th century and global warming (IPCC, 2001. However, assessments carried out since then (e.g. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4, in preparations suggest El Niño events have become more frequent, persistent and intense during the last 20 to 30 years compared to the previous 100 years. Attribution to global warming, however, remains highly uncertain. Efforts to simulate and model past, present and future behaviour of ENSO under a warming world due to enhanced GHG concentrations produce conflicting results. Since substantial internally-generated variability of ENSO behaviour on multi-decadal to century timescales occurs in long, unforced atmospheric-oceanic general circulation model (AOGCM simulations, the attribution of past and future changes in ENSO amplitude and frequency to external forcing like GHG concentrations cannot be made with certainty. Such attribution would require extensive use of ensemble climate experiments or long experiments with stabilised GHG forcing. Although there are now better ENSO simulations in AOGCM, further model improvements are needed to simulate a more realistic Pacific climatology and seasonal cycle of the key modes influencing the climate of the region, as well as more realistic ENSO variability

  11. Respuestas del clima de América del Sur a las fases de ENSO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available RÉPONSE DU CLIMAT DE L’AMÉRIQUE DU SUD AUX PHASES DE L’ENSO. Les phases hautes de l’ENSO, El Niño (EN, ou basses, Anti-Niño (AN, ont des répercussions diverses sur la pluviométrie de l’Amérique du sud. Pour caractériser ces diverses réponses, les précipitations annuelles ou saisonnières ont été réunies en trois groupes : celui des années EN, celui des années AN et celui des années normales. Les années qui précèdent les étés australs avec EN, les pluies hivernales dans le centre du Chili et dans les Andes de l’ouest de l’Argentine sont renforcées. Certaines années, on observe des sécheresses dans le Nordeste du Brésil au cours de l’été et de l’automne austral qui précèdent le phénomène El Niño dans le Pacifique Tropical. Au cours des mois de décembre à mars des années EN, il pleut abondamment sur la côte ouest de l’Amérique du Sud, depuis la baie de Tumaco jusqu’à Pacasmayo. À l’intérieur, dans la Sierra et l’Altiplano péruano-bolivien, on observe des sécheresses au cours de cette période alors qu’il pleut abondamment au cours de l’été et de l’automne austral dans les basses terres de l’Est de la Bolivie, du Paraguay et du Sud-Est du Brésil. À mesure que l’on s’avance vers l’automne austral, on observe de fortes précipitations dans la partie basse du bassin du Rio de la Plata et du Sud du Brésil. Dans la partie septentrionale et la partie inférieure du bassin amazonien les pluies sont déficitaires au cours des EN, pour devenir excédentaires au cours des AN. La partie intérieure du bassin amazonien réagit de manière inverse : on y observe des excès pluviométriques certaines années EN. Les régions du Venezuela et de la Colombie, sous l’influence climatique des Caraïbes et de l’Atlantique présentent des anomalies négatives de précipitation au cours des EN et une forte pluviosité au cours des AN. Une partie de la Pampa et de la Patagonie ne réagit pas aux

  12. The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME): Phase-1 Seasonal to Interannual Prediction, Phase-2 Toward Developing Intra-Seasonal Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirtman, Ben P.; Min, Dughong; Infanti, Johnna M.; Kinter, James L., III; Paolino, Daniel A.; Zhang, Qin; vandenDool, Huug; Saha, Suranjana; Mendez, Malaquias Pena; Becker, Emily; hide

    2013-01-01

    The recent US National Academies report "Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability" was unequivocal in recommending the need for the development of a North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) operational predictive capability. Indeed, this effort is required to meet the specific tailored regional prediction and decision support needs of a large community of climate information users. The multi-model ensemble approach has proven extremely effective at quantifying prediction uncertainty due to uncertainty in model formulation, and has proven to produce better prediction quality (on average) then any single model ensemble. This multi-model approach is the basis for several international collaborative prediction research efforts, an operational European system and there are numerous examples of how this multi-model ensemble approach yields superior forecasts compared to any single model. Based on two NOAA Climate Test Bed (CTB) NMME workshops (February 18, and April 8, 2011) a collaborative and coordinated implementation strategy for a NMME prediction system has been developed and is currently delivering real-time seasonal-to-interannual predictions on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) operational schedule. The hindcast and real-time prediction data is readily available (e.g., http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.Models/.NMME/) and in graphical format from CPC (http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51yf/NMME/index.html). Moreover, the NMME forecast are already currently being used as guidance for operational forecasters. This paper describes the new NMME effort, presents an overview of the multi-model forecast quality, and the complementary skill associated with individual models.

  13. Using Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) modelling for Rapid Source Term Prediction. RASTEP Phase 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knochenhauer, M.; Swaling, V.H.; Alfheim, P.

    2012-09-01

    The project is connected to the development of RASTEP, a computerized source term prediction tool aimed at providing a basis for improving off-site emergency management. RASTEP uses Bayesian belief networks (BBN) to model severe accident progression in a nuclear power plant in combination with pre-calculated source terms (i.e., amount, timing, and pathway of released radio-nuclides). The output is a set of possible source terms with associated probabilities. In the NKS project, a number of complex issues associated with the integration of probabilistic and deterministic analyses are addressed. This includes issues related to the method for estimating source terms, signal validation, and sensitivity analysis. One major task within Phase 1 of the project addressed the problem of how to make the source term module flexible enough to give reliable and valid output throughout the accident scenario. Of the alternatives evaluated, it is recommended that RASTEP is connected to a fast running source term prediction code, e.g., MARS, with a possibility of updating source terms based on real-time observations. (Author)

  14. Radiation-induced brain structural and functional abnormalities in presymptomatic phase and outcome prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Zhongxiang; Zhang, Han; Lv, Xiao-Fei; Xie, Fei; Liu, Lizhi; Qiu, Shijun; Li, Li; Shen, Dinggang

    2018-01-01

    Radiation therapy, a major method of treatment for brain cancer, may cause severe brain injuries after many years. We used a rare and unique cohort of nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients with normal-appearing brains to study possible early irradiation injury in its presymptomatic phase before severe, irreversible necrosis happens. The aim is to detect any structural or functional imaging biomarker that is sensitive to early irradiation injury, and to understand the recovery and progression of irradiation injury that can shed light on outcome prediction for early clinical intervention. We found an acute increase in local brain activity that is followed by extensive reductions in such activity in the temporal lobe and significant loss of functional connectivity in a distributed, large-scale, high-level cognitive function-related brain network. Intriguingly, these radiosensitive functional alterations were found to be fully or partially recoverable. In contrast, progressive late disruptions to the integrity of the related far-end white matter structure began to be significant after one year. Importantly, early increased local brain functional activity was predictive of severe later temporal lobe necrosis. Based on these findings, we proposed a dynamic, multifactorial model for radiation injury and another preventive model for timely clinical intervention. Hum Brain Mapp 39:407-427, 2018. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  15. Using Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) modelling for Rapid Source Term Prediction. RASTEP Phase 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knochenhauer, M.; Swaling, V.H.; Alfheim, P. [Scandpower AB, Sundbyberg (Sweden)

    2012-09-15

    The project is connected to the development of RASTEP, a computerized source term prediction tool aimed at providing a basis for improving off-site emergency management. RASTEP uses Bayesian belief networks (BBN) to model severe accident progression in a nuclear power plant in combination with pre-calculated source terms (i.e., amount, timing, and pathway of released radio-nuclides). The output is a set of possible source terms with associated probabilities. In the NKS project, a number of complex issues associated with the integration of probabilistic and deterministic analyses are addressed. This includes issues related to the method for estimating source terms, signal validation, and sensitivity analysis. One major task within Phase 1 of the project addressed the problem of how to make the source term module flexible enough to give reliable and valid output throughout the accident scenario. Of the alternatives evaluated, it is recommended that RASTEP is connected to a fast running source term prediction code, e.g., MARS, with a possibility of updating source terms based on real-time observations. (Author)

  16. Coastal upwelling along the southwest coast of India – ENSO modulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Muni Krishna

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available An index of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO in the Pacific during pre monsoon season is shown to account for a significant part of the variability of coastal Sea Surface Temperature (SST anomalies measured a few months later within the wind driven southwest coast of India coastal upwelling region 7° N–14° N. This teleconnection is thought to result from an atmospheric bridge between the Pacific and north Indian Oceans, leading to warm (cold ENSO events being associated with relaxation (intensification of the Indian trade winds and of the wind-induced coastal upwelling. This ENSO related modulation of the wind-driven coastal upwelling appears to contribute to the connection observed at the basin-scale between ENSO and SST in the Arabian Sea. The ability to use this teleconnection to give warning of large changes in the southwest coast of India coastal upwelling few months in advance is successfully tested using data from 1998 and 1999 ENSO events.

  17. Source of low frequency modulation of ENSO amplitude in a CGCM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moon, Byung-Kwon [Chonbuk National University, Division of Science Education/Institute of Science Education, Jeonju (Korea); Yeh, Sang-Wook [Korea Ocean Research and Development Institute, Ansan (Korea); Dewitte, Boris [Laboratoire d' Etude en Geophysique et Oceanographie Spatiale, Toulouse (France); Jhun, Jong-Ghap [Seoul National University, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul (Korea); Kang, In-Sik [Seoul National University, Climate Environment System Research Center (CES), Seoul (Korea)

    2007-07-15

    We study the relationship between changes in equatorial stratification and low frequency El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude modulation in a coupled general circulation model (CGCM) that uses an anomaly coupling strategy to prevent climate drifts in the mean state. The stratification is intensified at upper levels in the western and central equatorial Pacific during periods of high ENSO amplitude. Furthermore, changes in equatorial stratification are connected with subsurface temperature anomalies originating from the central south tropical Pacific. The correlation analysis of ocean temperature anomalies against an index for the ENSO modulation supports the hypothesis of the existence of an oceanic ''tunnel'' that connects the south tropical Pacific to the equatorial wave guide. Further analysis of the wind stress projection coefficient onto the oceanic baroclinic modes suggests that the low frequency modulation of ENSO amplitude is associated with a significant contribution of higher-order modes in the western and central equatorial Pacific. In the light of these results, we suggest that, in the CGCM, change in the baroclinic mode energy distribution associated with low frequency ENSO amplitude modulation have its source in the central south tropical Pacific. (orig.)

  18. On the role of ozone feedback in the ENSO amplitude response under global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowack, Peer J; Braesicke, Peter; Luke Abraham, N; Pyle, John A

    2017-04-28

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean is of key importance to global climate and weather. However, state-of-the-art climate models still disagree on the ENSO's response under climate change. The potential role of atmospheric ozone changes in this context has not been explored before. Here we show that differences between typical model representations of ozone can have a first-order impact on ENSO amplitude projections in climate sensitivity simulations. The vertical temperature gradient of the tropical middle-to-upper troposphere adjusts to ozone changes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, modifying the Walker circulation and consequently tropical Pacific surface temperature gradients. We show that neglecting ozone changes thus results in a significant increase in the number of extreme ENSO events in our model. Climate modeling studies of the ENSO often neglect changes in ozone. We therefore highlight the need to understand better the coupling between ozone, the tropospheric circulation, and climate variability.

  19. Prediction of B1 to B10 phase transition in LuN under pressure: An ab-initio investigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sahoo, B. D., E-mail: bdsahoo@barc.gov.in; Mukherjee, D.; Joshi, K. D.; Kaushik, T. C.; Gupta, Satish C. [Applied Physics Division, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai, India 400085 (India)

    2016-05-23

    Ab-initio total energy calculations have been performed in lutetium nitride (LuN) as a function of hydrostatic compression to understand the high pressure behavior of this compound. Our calculations predict a phase transition from ambient rocksalt type structure (B1 phase) to a tetragonal structure (B10 phase) at ~ 240 GPa. The phase transition has been identified as first order in nature with volume discontinuity of ~ 6%. The predicted high pressure phase has been found to be stable up to at least 400 GPa, the maximum pressure up to which calculations have been performed.Further, to substantiate the results of static lattice calculations analysis of lattice dynamic stability of B1 and B10 phase has been carried out at different pressures. Apart from this, we have analyzed the lattice dynamic stability CsCl type (B2) phase around the 240 GPa, the pressure reported for B1 to B2 transition in previous all-electron calculations by Gupta et al. 2013. We find that the B2 structure is lattice dynamically unstable at this pressure and remains unstable up to ~ 400 GPa, ruling out the possibility of B1 to B2 phase transition at least up to ~ 400 GPa. Further, the theoretically determined equation of state has been utilized to derive various physical quantities such as zero pressure equilibrium volume, bulk modulus, and pressure derivative of bulk modulus of B1 phase at ambient conditions.

  20. A Simplified Micromechanical Modeling Approach to Predict the Tensile Flow Curve Behavior of Dual-Phase Steels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nanda, Tarun; Kumar, B. Ravi; Singh, Vishal

    2017-11-01

    Micromechanical modeling is used to predict material's tensile flow curve behavior based on microstructural characteristics. This research develops a simplified micromechanical modeling approach for predicting flow curve behavior of dual-phase steels. The existing literature reports on two broad approaches for determining tensile flow curve of these steels. The modeling approach developed in this work attempts to overcome specific limitations of the existing two approaches. This approach combines dislocation-based strain-hardening method with rule of mixtures. In the first step of modeling, `dislocation-based strain-hardening method' was employed to predict tensile behavior of individual phases of ferrite and martensite. In the second step, the individual flow curves were combined using `rule of mixtures,' to obtain the composite dual-phase flow behavior. To check accuracy of proposed model, four distinct dual-phase microstructures comprising of different ferrite grain size, martensite fraction, and carbon content in martensite were processed by annealing experiments. The true stress-strain curves for various microstructures were predicted with the newly developed micromechanical model. The results of micromechanical model matched closely with those of actual tensile tests. Thus, this micromechanical modeling approach can be used to predict and optimize the tensile flow behavior of dual-phase steels.

  1. A micromechanical four-phase model to predict the compressive failure surface of cement concrete

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Caporale,

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available In this work, a micromechanical model is used in order to predict the failure surface of cement concrete subject to multi-axial compression. In the adopted model, the concrete material is schematised as a composite with the following constituents: coarse aggregate (gravel, fine aggregate (sand and cement paste. The cement paste contains some voids which grow during the loading process. In fact, the non-linear behavior of the concrete is attributed to the creation of cracks in the cement paste; the effect of the cracks is taken into account by introducing equivalent voids (inclusions with zero stiffness in the cement paste. The three types of inclusions (namely gravel, sand and voids have different scales, so that the overall behavior of the concrete is obtained by the composition of three different homogenizations; in the sense that the concrete is regarded as the homogenized material of the two-phase composite constituted of the gravel and the mortar; in turn, the mortar is the homogenized material of the two-phase composite constituted of the sand inclusions and a (porous cement paste matrix; finally, the (porous cement paste is the homogenized material of the two-phase composite constituted of voids and the pure paste. The pure paste represents the cement paste before the loading process, so that it does not contain voids or other defects due to the loading process. The abovementioned three homogenizations are realized with the predictive scheme of Mori-Tanaka in conjunction with the Eshelby method. The adopted model can be considered an attempt to find micromechanical tools able to capture peculiar aspects of the cement concrete in load cases of uni-axial and multi-axial compression. Attributing the non-linear behavior of concrete to the creation of equivalent voids in the cement paste provides correspondence with many phenomenological aspects of concrete behavior. Trying to improve this correspondence, the influence of the parameters of the

  2. Isotopic changes due to convective moistening of the lower troposphere associated with variations in the ENSO and IOD from 2005 to 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeonghoon Lee

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available We use the tropospheric emission spectrometer measurements of the isotopic composition of water vapour (δD in the lower troposphere to examine how changes in the distribution of convection and precipitation control water vapour amount and its isotope over the Indian Ocean. Measurements of the outgoing longwave radiation and vertical velocity from NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis and cloud ice water content from the Microwave Limb Sounder show distinct variations in convection due to a phase shift of both El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD. These variations in convection are associated with changes in precipitation and water amount over the Western Indian Ocean (WIO and Eastern Indian Ocean (EIO, depending on the phases of ENSO and/or the IOD. Over the EIO in 2006, induced by the interplay of both positive ENSO and IOD, it is drier and less isotopically depleted due to less frequent and/or weaker deep convective activity and subsequent precipitation compared to 2005. By contrast, over the WIO in 2006, an increase in water vapour and precipitation but little isotopic fractionation in water vapour of clear sky compared to 2005 is likely associated with an increase in both enhanced deep and shallow convection, caused by the positive IOD. Therefore, paleoarchives of water isotopes near Africa will be more difficult to relate to a single process because changes in convective activity result in changes in precipitation but do not have a significant impact on the isotopic composition of the source vapour based on this case analysis.

  3. Predicting the growth of S i3N4 nanowires by phase-equilibrium-dominated vapor-liquid-solid mechanism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yongliang; Cai, Jing; Yang, Lijun; Wu, Qiang; Wang, Xizhang; Hu, Zheng

    2017-09-01

    Nanomaterial synthesis is experiencing a profound evolution from empirical science ("cook-and-look") to prediction and design, which depends on the deep insight into the growth mechanism. Herein, we report a generalized prediction of the growth of S i3N4 nanowires by nitriding F e28S i72 alloy particles across different phase regions based on our finding of the phase-equilibrium-dominated vapor-liquid-solid (PED-VLS) mechanism. All the predictions about the growth of S i3N4 nanowires, and the associated evolutions of lattice parameters and geometries of the coexisting Fe -Si alloy phases, are experimentally confirmed quantitatively. This progress corroborates the general validity of the PED-VLS mechanism, which could be applied to the design and controllable synthesis of various one-dimensional nanomaterials.

  4. Predicting the start and maximum amplitude of solar cycle 24 using similar phases and a cycle grouping

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Jialong; Zong Weiguo; Le Guiming; Zhao Haijuan; Tang Yunqiu; Zhang Yang

    2009-01-01

    We find that the solar cycles 9, 11, and 20 are similar to cycle 23 in their respective descending phases. Using this similarity and the observed data of smoothed monthly mean sunspot numbers (SMSNs) available for the descending phase of cycle 23, we make a date calibration for the average time sequence made of the three descending phases of the three cycles, and predict the start of March or April 2008 for cycle 24. For the three cycles, we also find a linear correlation of the length of the descending phase of a cycle with the difference between the maximum epoch of this cycle and that of its next cycle. Using this relationship along with the known relationship between the rise-time and the maximum amplitude of a slowly rising solar cycle, we predict the maximum SMSN of cycle 24 of 100.2 ± 7.5 to appear during the period from May to October 2012. (letters)

  5. An Ensemble Approach to Understanding the ENSO Response to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevenson, S.; Capotondi, A.; Fasullo, J.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.

    2017-12-01

    The dynamics of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are known to be sensitive to changes in background climate conditions, as well as atmosphere/ocean feedbacks. However, the degree to which shifts in ENSO characteristics can be robustly attributed to external climate forcings remains unknown. Efforts to assess these changes in a multi-model framework are subject to uncertainties due to both differing model physics and internal ENSO variability. New community ensembles created at the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory are ideally suited to addressing this problem, providing many realizations of the climate of the 850-2100 period with a combination of both natural and anthropogenic climate forcing factors. Here we analyze the impacts of external forcing on El Nino and La Nina evolution using four sets of simulations: the CESM Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME), which covers the 850-2005 period and provides long-term context for forced responses; the Large Ensemble (CESM-LE), which includes 20th century and 21st century (RCP8.5) projections; the Medium Ensemble (CESM-ME), which is composed of 21st century RCP4.5 projections; and a large ensemble with the GFDL ESM2M, which includes 20th century and RCP8.5 projections. In the CESM, ENSO variance increases slightly over the 20th century in all ensembles, with the effects becoming much larger during the 21st. The slower increase in variance over the 20th century is shown to arise from compensating influences from greenhouse gas (GHG) and anthropogenic aerosol emissions, which give way to GHG-dominated effects by 2100. However, the 21st century variance increase is not robust: CESM and the ESM2M differ drastically in their ENSO projections. The mechanisms for these inter-model differences are discussed, as are the implications for the design of future multi-model ENSO projection experiments.

  6. ENSO-driven nutrient variability recorded by central equatorial Pacific corals

    Science.gov (United States)

    LaVigne, M.; Nurhati, I. S.; Cobb, K. M.; McGregor, H. V.; Sinclair, D. J.; Sherrell, R. M.

    2012-12-01

    Recent evidence for shifts in global ocean primary productivity suggests that surface ocean nutrient availability is a key link between global climate and ocean carbon cycling. Time-series records from satellite, in situ buoy sensors, and bottle sampling have documented the impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on equatorial Pacific hydrography and broad changes in biogeochemistry since the late 1990's, however, data are sparse prior to this. Here we use a new paleoceanographic nutrient proxy, coral P/Ca, to explore the impact of ENSO on nutrient availability in the central equatorial Pacific at higher-resolution than available from in situ nutrient data. Corals from Christmas (157°W 2°N) and Fanning (159°W 4°N) Islands recorded a well-documented decrease in equatorial upwelling as a ~40% decrease in P/Ca during the 1997-98 ENSO cycle, validating the application of this proxy to Pacific Porites corals. We compare the biogeochemical shifts observed through the 1997-98 event with two pre-TOGA-TAO ENSO cycles (1982-83 and 1986-87) reconstructed from a longer Christmas Island core. All three corals revealed ~30-40% P/Ca depletions during ENSO warming as a result of decreased regional wind stress, thermocline depth, and equatorial upwelling velocity. However, at the termination of each El Niño event, surface nutrients did not return to pre-ENSO levels for ~4-12 months after, SST as a result of increased biological draw down of surface nutrients. These records demonstrate the utility of high-resolution coral nutrient archives for understanding the impact of tropical Pacific climate on the nutrient and carbon cycling of this key region.

  7. Predicting phase shift effects for vibrating fluid-conveying pipes due to Coriolis forces and fluid pulsation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Enz, Stephanie; Thomsen, Jon Juel

    2011-01-01

    to improve accuracy, precision, and robustness of CFMs. A simple mathematical model of a fluid-conveying pipe is formulated and the effect of pulsating fluid flow is analyzed using a multiple time scaling perturbation analysis. The results are simple analytical predictions for the transverse pipe...... and uncontrolled during CFM operation by feedback control. The analytical predictions offer an immediate insight into how fluid pulsation affects phase shift, which is a quantity measured by CFMs to estimate the mass flow, and lead to hypotheses for more complex geometries, i.e. industrial CFMs. The validity...... displacement and approximate axial shift in vibration phase. The analytical predictions are tested against pure numerical solution using representative examples, showing good agreement. Fluid pulsations are predicted not to influence CFM accuracy, since proper signal filtering is seen to allow...

  8. A semianalytical model to predict recovery of light, nonaqueous phase liquids from unconfined aquifers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waddill, D.W.

    1997-01-01

    This paper describes the development and testing of a semianalytical model that may be used to design LNAPL containment and recovery systems at spill sites. The objective of this study was to derive an enhanced semianalytical algorithm for calculating recovery and trapping of free phase oil. The enhancements were derived and evaluated by comparison with an established numerical model that describes transient flow of oil and water. The semianalytical model employs an analytical solution for steady-state drawdown in an unconfined aquifer due to water pumping. When pumping rates are sufficient to contain the separate phase plume, the model calculates recoverable and residual oil volumes based on the initial free oil distribution. Refinements were implemented to calculate the water-table drawdown and the maximum unsaturated zone residual saturation (S og ) as functions of soil type. Also the influence of hysteresis on the oil-water capillary fringe was incorporated into the calculation of oil trapping below a rising oil-water interface. A method was derived to reduce saturated zone trapping to account for oil recovery that occurs while pumping proceeds. The above enhancements yielded close agreement between the semianalytical model and the transient model predictions of recoverable oil and residua oil in the unsaturated and saturated zones. The models were compared for hypothetical gasoline spills in a sandy and a silt loam soil, using a range of pumping rates and regional water-table fluctuations. Field data from a pipeline leak were evaluated by the semianalytical model for hypothetical scenarios involving oil recovery from three wells and a falling regional water table

  9. Marine lake ecosystem dynamics illustrate ENSO variation in the tropical western Pacific

    OpenAIRE

    Martin, Laura E; Dawson, Michael N; Bell, Lori J; Colin, Patrick L

    2005-01-01

    Understanding El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its biological consequences is hindered by a lack of high-resolution, long-term data from the tropical western Pacific. We describe a preliminary, 6 year dataset that shows tightly coupled ENSO-related bio-physical dynamics in a seawater lake in Palau, Micronesia. The lake is more strongly stratified during La Niña than El Niño conditions, temperature anomalies in the lake co-vary strongly with the Niño 3.4 climate index, and the abundance...

  10. How Accurately Do Consecutive Cohort Audits Predict Phase III Multisite Clinical Trial Recruitment in Palliative Care?

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCaffrey, Nikki; Fazekas, Belinda; Cutri, Natalie; Currow, David C

    2016-04-01

    Audits have been proposed for estimating possible recruitment rates to randomized controlled trials (RCTs), but few studies have compared audit data with subsequent recruitment rates. To compare the accuracy of estimates of potential recruitment from a retrospective consecutive cohort audit of actual participating sites and recruitment to four Phase III multisite clinical RCTs. The proportion of potentially eligible study participants estimated from an inpatient chart review of people with life-limiting illnesses referred to six Australian specialist palliative care services was compared with recruitment data extracted from study prescreening information from three sites that participated fully in four Palliative Care Clinical Studies Collaborative RCTs. The predominant reasons for ineligibility in the audit and RCTs were analyzed. The audit overestimated the proportion of people referred to the palliative care services who could participate in the RCTs (pain 17.7% vs. 1.2%, delirium 5.8% vs. 0.6%, anorexia 5.1% vs. 0.8%, and bowel obstruction 2.8% vs. 0.5%). Approximately 2% of the referral base was potentially eligible for these effectiveness studies. Ineligibility for general criteria (language, cognition, and geographic proximity) varied between studies, whereas the reasons for exclusion were similar between the audit and pain and anorexia studies but not for delirium or bowel obstruction. The retrospective consecutive case note audit in participating sites did not predict realistic recruitment rates, mostly underestimating the impact of study-specific inclusion criteria. These findings have implications for the applicability of the results of RCTs. Prospective pilot studies are more likely to predict actual recruitment. Copyright © 2016 American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. ENSO Modulations due to Interannual Variability of Freshwater Forcing and Ocean Biology-induced Heating in the Tropical Pacific.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Rong-Hua; Gao, Chuan; Kang, Xianbiao; Zhi, Hai; Wang, Zhanggui; Feng, Licheng

    2015-12-18

    Recent studies have identified clear climate feedbacks associated with interannual variations in freshwater forcing (FWF) and ocean biology-induced heating (OBH) in the tropical Pacific. The interrelationships among the related anomaly fields are analyzed using hybrid coupled model (HCM) simulations to illustrate their combined roles in modulating the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The HCM-based supporting experiments are performed to isolate the related feedbacks, with interannually varying FWF and OBH being represented individually or collectively, which allows their effects to be examined in a clear way. It is demonstrated that the interannual freshwater forcing enhances ENSO variability and slightly prolongs the simulated ENSO period, while the interannual OBH reduces ENSO variability and slightly shortens the ENSO period, with their feedback effects tending to counteract each other.

  12. Sensitivity of Sahelian Precipitation to Desert Dust under ENSO variability: a regional modeling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordan, A.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Gnanadesikan, A.

    2016-12-01

    Mineral dust is estimated to comprise over half the total global aerosol burden, with a majority coming from the Sahara and Sahel region. Bounded by the Sahara Desert to the north and the Sahelian Savannah to the south, the Sahel experiences high interannual rainfall variability and a short rainy season during the boreal summer months. Observation-based data for the past three decades indicates a reduced dust emission trend, together with an increase in greening and surface roughness within the Sahel. Climate models used to study regional precipitation changes due to Saharan dust yield varied results, both in sign convention and magnitude. Inconsistency of model estimates drives future climate projections for the region that are highly varied and uncertain. We use the NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model to quantify the interaction and feedback between desert dust aerosol and Sahelian precipitation. Using nested domains at fine spatial resolution we resolve changes to mesoscale atmospheric circulation patterns due to dust, for representative phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The NU-WRF regional earth system model offers both advanced land surface data and resolvable detail of the mechanisms of the impact of Saharan dust. Results are compared to our previous work assessed over the Western Sahel using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) CM2Mc global climate model, and to other previous regional climate model studies. This prompts further research to help explain the dust-precipitation relationship and recent North African dust emission trends. This presentation will offer a quantitative analysis of differences in radiation budget, energy and moisture fluxes, and atmospheric dynamics due to desert dust aerosol over the Sahel.

  13. Tropical cyclone genesis in the Southern Hemisphere and its relationship with the ENSO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Kuleshov

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Tropical cyclogenesis climatology over the South Indian and South Pacific Oceans has been developed using a new tropical cyclone (TC archive for the Southern Hemisphere, and changes in geographical distribution of areas favourable for TC genesis related to changes in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO phases have been investigated. To explain these changes, large-scale environmental variables which influence TC genesis and development such as sea surface temperatures (SSTs, relative humidity in mid-troposphere, vertical wind shear and lower tropospheric vorticity have been examined. In the South Indian Ocean, reduction of TC genesis in the western part of the basin and its increase in the eastern part as well as displacement of the area favourable for TC genesis further away from the equator during La Niña events compared to El Niño events can be explained by changes in geographical distribution of relative humidity and vorticity across the basin as primary contributors; positive anomalies of SSTs observed during La Niña seasons in the eastern part of the basin additionally contribute to enhanced cyclogenesis near the Western Australia. In the South Pacific Ocean, changes in geographical distribution of relative humidity and vorticity appear to be the key large-scale environmental factors responsible for enhanced TC genesis in the eastern (western part of the basin as well as for the northeast (southwest shift of points of cyclogenesis during El Niño (La Niña events, with vertical wind shear and SSTs as additional contributing large-scale environmental variables.

  14. ENSO modulation of seasonal rainfall and extremes in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Supari; Tangang, Fredolin; Salimun, Ester; Aldrian, Edvin; Sopaheluwakan, Ardhasena; Juneng, Liew

    2017-12-01

    This paper provides a detailed description of how ENSO events affect seasonal and extreme precipitation over Indonesia. Daily precipitation data from 97 stations across Indonesia covering the period from 1981 to 2012 were used to investigate the effects of El Niño and La Niña on extreme precipitation characteristics including intensity, frequency and duration, as defined based on a subset of the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). Although anomalous signals in these three indices were consistent with those of total rainfall, anomalies in the duration of extremes [i.e., consecutive dry days (CDD) and consecutive wet days (CWD)] were much more robust. El Niño impacts were particularly prominent during June-July-August (JJA) and September-October-November (SON), when anomalously dry conditions were experienced throughout the country. However, from SON, a wet anomaly appeared over northern Sumatra, later expanding eastward during December-January-February (DJF) and March-April-May (MAM), creating contrasting conditions of wet in the west and dry in the east. We attribute this apparent eastward expansion of a wet anomaly during El Niño progression to the equatorial convergence of two anti-cyclonic circulations, one residing north of the equator and the other south of the equator. These anti-cyclonic circulations strengthen and weaken according to seasonal changes and their coupling with regional seas, hence shaping moisture transport and convergence. During La Niña events, the eastward expansion of an opposite (i.e., dry) anomaly was also present but less prominent than that of El Niño. We attribute this to differences in regional ocean—atmosphere coupling, which result in the contrasting seasonal evolution of the two corresponding anomalous cyclonic circulations and in turn suggests the strong nonlinearity of El Niño and La Niña responses over the Maritime Continent. Based on the seasonal behaviour of anomalous CDD and CWD, we

  15. Ground-State Gas-Phase Structures of Inorganic Molecules Predicted by Density Functional Theory Methods

    KAUST Repository

    Minenkov, Yury

    2017-11-29

    We tested a battery of density functional theory (DFT) methods ranging from generalized gradient approximation (GGA) via meta-GGA to hybrid meta-GGA schemes as well as Møller–Plesset perturbation theory of the second order and a single and double excitation coupled-cluster (CCSD) theory for their ability to reproduce accurate gas-phase structures of di- and triatomic molecules derived from microwave spectroscopy. We obtained the most accurate molecular structures using the hybrid and hybrid meta-GGA approximations with B3PW91, APF, TPSSh, mPW1PW91, PBE0, mPW1PBE, B972, and B98 functionals, resulting in lowest errors. We recommend using these methods to predict accurate three-dimensional structures of inorganic molecules when intramolecular dispersion interactions play an insignificant role. The structures that the CCSD method predicts are of similar quality although at considerably larger computational cost. The structures that GGA and meta-GGA schemes predict are less accurate with the largest absolute errors detected with BLYP and M11-L, suggesting that these methods should not be used if accurate three-dimensional molecular structures are required. Because of numerical problems related to the integration of the exchange–correlation part of the functional and large scattering of errors, most of the Minnesota models tested, particularly MN12-L, M11, M06-L, SOGGA11, and VSXC, are also not recommended for geometry optimization. When maintaining a low computational budget is essential, the nonseparable gradient functional N12 might work within an acceptable range of error. As expected, the DFT-D3 dispersion correction had a negligible effect on the internuclear distances when combined with the functionals tested on nonweakly bonded di- and triatomic inorganic molecules. By contrast, the dispersion correction for the APF-D functional has been found to shorten the bonds significantly, up to 0.064 Å (AgI), in Ag halides, BaO, BaS, BaF, BaCl, Cu halides, and Li and

  16. A metric for quantifying El Niño pattern diversity with implications for ENSO-mean state interaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemmon, Danielle E.; Karnauskas, Kristopher B.

    2018-04-01

    Recent research on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon increasingly reveals the highly complex and diverse nature of ENSO variability. A method of quantifying ENSO spatial pattern uniqueness and diversity is presented, which enables (1) formally distinguishing between unique and "canonical" El Niño events, (2) testing whether historical model simulations aptly capture ENSO diversity by comparing with instrumental observations, (3) projecting future ENSO diversity using future model simulations, (4) understanding the dynamics that give rise to ENSO diversity, and (5) analyzing the associated diversity of ENSO-related atmospheric teleconnection patterns. Here we develop a framework for measuring El Niño spatial SST pattern uniqueness and diversity for a given set of El Niño events using two indices, the El Niño Pattern Uniqueness (EPU) index and El Niño Pattern Diversity (EPD) index, respectively. By applying this framework to instrumental records, we independently confirm a recent regime shift in El Niño pattern diversity with an increase in unique El Niño event sea surface temperature patterns. However, the same regime shift is not observed in historical CMIP5 model simulations; moreover, a comparison between historical and future CMIP5 model scenarios shows no robust change in future ENSO diversity. Finally, we support recent work that asserts a link between the background cooling of the eastern tropical Pacific and changes in ENSO diversity. This robust link between an eastern Pacific cooling mode and ENSO diversity is observed not only in instrumental reconstructions and reanalysis, but also in historical and future CMIP5 model simulations.

  17. Influence of the pore fluid on the phase velocity in bovine trabecular bone In Vitro: Prediction of the biot model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Kang Il

    2013-01-01

    The present study aims to investigate the influence of the pore fluid on the phase velocity in bovine trabecular bone in vitro. The frequency-dependent phase velocity was measured in 20 marrow-filled and water-filled bovine femoral trabecular bone samples. The mean phase velocities at frequencies between 0.6 and 1.2 MHz exhibited significant negative dispersions for both the marrow-filled and the water-filled samples. The magnitudes of the dispersions showed no significant differences between the marrow-filled and the water-filled samples. In contrast, replacement of marrow by water led to a mean increase in the phase velocity of 27 m/s at frequencies from 0.6 to 1.2 MHz. The theoretical phase velocities of the fast wave predicted by using the Biot model for elastic wave propagation in fluid-saturated porous media showed good agreements with the measurements.

  18. Quantitative early phase scintigraphy in the prediction of healing of tibial fractures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wallace, A.L.; Strachan, R.K.; Hughes, S.P.F.

    1992-01-01

    Imaging with technetium-99m methylene diphsophonate ( 99m Tc-MDP) is established in the diagnosis of infection, neoplasia and ischaemic necrosis in orthopaedic practice, but its role in fracture healing is less well-defined. Previous studies have shown a relationship between fracture site activity (region A), activity in adjacent normal bone (region C) and time to union. The predictive value of the A/C ratio of the image obtained 300-800 s after injection was assessed in a prospective study of 50 patients with closed tibial fractures managed with plaster casts, external fixators and intramedullary nails. There were significant differences in absolute uptake and A/C ratio between the three groups (P 99m -Tc-MDP uptake so as to reduce the A/C ratio (1.10±0.20), but there is a promissing role for early phase bone scanning in non-operative (A/C=1.40±0.21) or externally fixed (A/C=1.26±0.22) fractures in conjunction with other non-invasive methods of monitoring the biomechanical environment. (orig.)

  19. Diagnostic of annual cycle and effects of the ENSO about the maximum intensity of duration rains between 1 and 24 hours at the Andes of Colombia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poveda, German; Mesa, Oscar; Toro, Vladimir; Agudelo, Paula; Alvarez, Juan F; Arias, Paola; Moreno, Hernan; Salazar, Luis; Vieira, Sara

    2002-01-01

    We study the distribution of maximum rainfall events during the annual cycle, for storms ranging from 1 to 24-hour in duration; by using information over 51 rain gauges locate at the Colombian Andes. Also, the effects of both phases of ENSO (El Nino and La Nina) are quantified. We found that maximum rainfall intensity events occur during the rainy periods of march-may and September-November. There is a strong similarity between the annual cycle of mean total rainfall and that of the maximum intensities of rainfall over the tropical Andes. This result is quite consistent throughout the three ranges of the Colombian Andes. At inter annual timescales, we found that both phases of ENSO are associated with disturbances of maximum rainfall events; since during La Nina there are more intense precipitation events than during El Nino, overall, for durations longer than 3 hours, rainfall intensity gets reduced by one order of magnitude with respect to shorter durations (1-3 hours). The most extreme recorded rainfall events are apparently not associated with the annual and inter annual large scales forcing and appear to be randomly generated by the important role of the land surface atmosphere in the genesis and dynamics of intense storm over central Colombia

  20. Prediction of turbulent mixing rates of both gas and liquid phases between adjacent subchannels in a two-phase slug-churn flow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kawahara, A.; Sadatomi, M.; Tomino, T.; Sato, Y.

    1998-01-01

    This paper presents a slug-churn flow model for predicting turbulent mixing rates of both gas and liquid phase between adjacent subchannels in a BWR fuel rod bundle. In the model, the mixing rate of the liquid phase is calculated as the sum of the three components, i.e., turbulent diffusion, convective transfer and pressure difference fluctuations between the subchannels. The compenents of turbulent diffusion and convective transfer are calculated from Sadatomi et al.'s (1996) method, applicable to single-phase turbulent mixing by considering the effect of the increment of liquid velocity due to the presence of gas phase. The component of the pressure difference fluctuations is evaluated from a newly developed correlations. The mixing rate of the gas phase, on the other side, is calculated from a simple relation of mixing rate between gas and liquid phases. The validity of the proposed model has been confirmed with the turbulent mixing rates data of Rudzinski et al. as well as the present authors

  1. Low-Complexity Model Predictive Control of Single-Phase Three-Level Rectifiers with Unbalanced Load

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ma, Junpeng; Song, Wensheng; Wang, Xiongfei

    2018-01-01

    The fluctuation of the neutral-point potential in single-phase three-level rectifiers leads to coupling between the line current regulation and dc-link voltage balancing, deteriorating the quality of line current. For addressing this issue, this paper proposes a low-complexity model predictive...

  2. Four-Phase Dendritic Model for the Prediction of Macrosegregation, Shrinkage Cavity, and Porosity in a 55-Ton Ingot

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge, Honghao; Ren, Fengli; Li, Jun; Han, Xiujun; Xia, Mingxu; Li, Jianguo

    2017-03-01

    A four-phase dendritic model was developed to predict the macrosegregation, shrinkage cavity, and porosity during solidification. In this four-phase dendritic model, some important factors, including dendritic structure for equiaxed crystals, melt convection, crystals sedimentation, nucleation, growth, and shrinkage of solidified phases, were taken into consideration. Furthermore, in this four-phase dendritic model, a modified shrinkage criterion was established to predict shrinkage porosity (microporosity) of a 55-ton industrial Fe-3.3 wt pct C ingot. The predicted macrosegregation pattern and shrinkage cavity shape are in a good agreement with experimental results. The shrinkage cavity has a significant effect on the formation of positive segregation in hot top region, which generally forms during the last stage of ingot casting. The dendritic equiaxed grains also play an important role on the formation of A-segregation. A three-dimensional laminar structure of A-segregation in industrial ingot was, for the first time, predicted by using a 3D case simulation.

  3. A grand canonical genetic algorithm for the prediction of multi-component phase diagrams and testing of empirical potentials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tipton, William W; Hennig, Richard G

    2013-01-01

    We present an evolutionary algorithm which predicts stable atomic structures and phase diagrams by searching the energy landscape of empirical and ab initio Hamiltonians. Composition and geometrical degrees of freedom may be varied simultaneously. We show that this method utilizes information from favorable local structure at one composition to predict that at others, achieving far greater efficiency of phase diagram prediction than a method which relies on sampling compositions individually. We detail this and a number of other efficiency-improving techniques implemented in the genetic algorithm for structure prediction code that is now publicly available. We test the efficiency of the software by searching the ternary Zr–Cu–Al system using an empirical embedded-atom model potential. In addition to testing the algorithm, we also evaluate the accuracy of the potential itself. We find that the potential stabilizes several correct ternary phases, while a few of the predicted ground states are unphysical. Our results suggest that genetic algorithm searches can be used to improve the methodology of empirical potential design. (paper)

  4. A grand canonical genetic algorithm for the prediction of multi-component phase diagrams and testing of empirical potentials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tipton, William W; Hennig, Richard G

    2013-12-11

    We present an evolutionary algorithm which predicts stable atomic structures and phase diagrams by searching the energy landscape of empirical and ab initio Hamiltonians. Composition and geometrical degrees of freedom may be varied simultaneously. We show that this method utilizes information from favorable local structure at one composition to predict that at others, achieving far greater efficiency of phase diagram prediction than a method which relies on sampling compositions individually. We detail this and a number of other efficiency-improving techniques implemented in the genetic algorithm for structure prediction code that is now publicly available. We test the efficiency of the software by searching the ternary Zr-Cu-Al system using an empirical embedded-atom model potential. In addition to testing the algorithm, we also evaluate the accuracy of the potential itself. We find that the potential stabilizes several correct ternary phases, while a few of the predicted ground states are unphysical. Our results suggest that genetic algorithm searches can be used to improve the methodology of empirical potential design.

  5. A PREDICTION FORMULA OF SUPERSOFT X-RAY PHASE OF CLASSICAL NOVAE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hachisu, Izumi; Kato, Mariko

    2010-01-01

    On the basis of the recently developed universal decline law of classical novae, we propose prediction formulae for supersoft X-ray on and off times, i.e., t X-on = (10 ± 1.8)t 3 days and t X-off = (5.3 ± 1.4)(t 3 ) 1.5 days for 8 ∼ 3 ∼ 3 is the newly proposed 'intrinsic' decay time during which the brightness drops by 3 mag from optical maximum along our universal decline law fitted with observation. We have determined the absolute magnitude of our free-free emission model light curves and derived maximum magnitude versus rate of decline (MMRD) relations. Our theoretical MMRD relations are governed by two parameters, one is the white dwarf (WD) mass and the other is the initial envelope mass at a nova outburst; this second parameter explains the scatter of MMRD points of individual novae. Our theoretical MMRD relations are also in good agreement with the well-known empirical formulae. We also show another empirical relation of M V (15) ∼ -5.7 ± 0.3 based on the absolute magnitude of our model light curves, i.e., the absolute magnitude at 15 days after optical maximum is almost common among various novae. We analyzed 10 nova light curves, in which a supersoft X-ray phase was detected, and estimated their WD masses. The models best simultaneously reproducing the optical and supersoft X-ray observations are ONeMg WDs with 1.28 ± 0.04 M sun (V598 Pup), 1.23 ± 0.05 M sun (V382 Vel), 1.15 ± 0.06 M sun (V4743 Sgr), 1.13 ± 0.06 M sun (V1281 Sco), 1.2 ± 0.05 M sun (V597 Pup), 1.06 ± 0.07 M sun (V1494 Aql), 1.04 ± 0.07 M sun (V2467 Cyg), 1.07 ± 0.07 M sun (V5116 Sgr), 1.05 ± 0.05 M sun (V574 Pup), and a CO WD with 0.93 ± 0.08 M sun (V458 Vul). The newly proposed relationships are consistent with the emergence or decay epoch of the supersoft X-ray phase of these 10 novae. Finally, we discuss the mechanism of shock-origin hard X-ray component in relation to the emergence of companion star from the WD envelope.

  6. Generation and mid-IR measurement of a gas-phase to predict security parameters of aviation jet fuel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez-Carracedo, M P; Andrade, J M; Calviño, M A; Prada, D; Fernández, E; Muniategui, S

    2003-07-27

    The worldwide use of kerosene as aviation jet fuel makes its safety considerations of most importance not only for aircraft security but for the workers' health (chronic and/or acute exposure). As most kerosene risks come from its vapours, this work focuses on predicting seven characteristics (flash point, freezing point, % of aromatics and four distillation points) which assess its potential hazards. Two experimental devices were implemented in order to, first, generate a kerosene vapour phase and, then, to measure its mid-IR spectrum. All the working conditions required to generate the gas phase were optimised either in a univariate or a multivariate (SIMPLEX) approach. Next, multivariate prediction models were deployed using partial least squares regression and it was found that both the average prediction errors and precision parameters were satisfactory, almost always well below the reference figures.

  7. Gradient retention prediction of acid-base analytes in reversed phase liquid chromatography: a simplified approach for acetonitrile-water mobile phases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrés, Axel; Rosés, Martí; Bosch, Elisabeth

    2014-11-28

    In previous work, a two-parameter model to predict chromatographic retention of ionizable analytes in gradient mode was proposed. However, the procedure required some previous experimental work to get a suitable description of the pKa change with the mobile phase composition. In the present study this previous experimental work has been simplified. The analyte pKa values have been calculated through equations whose coefficients vary depending on their functional group. Forced by this new approach, other simplifications regarding the retention of the totally neutral and totally ionized species also had to be performed. After the simplifications were applied, new prediction values were obtained and compared with the previously acquired experimental data. The simplified model gave pretty good predictions while saving a significant amount of time and resources. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Experimental Investigation and Analytical Prediction of σ-Phase Precipitation in AISI 316L Austenitic Stainless Steel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahlaoui, Habib; Sidhom, Habib

    2013-07-01

    The phase precipitation in industrial AISI 316L stainless steel during aging for up to 80,000 hours between 823 K and 1073 K (550 °C and 800 °C) has been studied using transmission electron microscopy, scanning transmission electron microscopy, and carbon replica energy-dispersive X-ray microanalysis. Three phases were identified: Chromium carbides (M23C6), Laves phase ( η), and σ-phase (Fe-Cr). M23C6 carbide precipitation occurred firstly and was followed by the η and σ-phases at grain boundaries when the aging temperature is higher than 873 K (600 °C). Precipitation and growth of M23C6 create chromium depletion zones at the grain boundaries and also retard the σ-phase formation. Thus, the σ-phase is controlled by the kinetic of chromium bulk diffusion and can appear only when the chromium reaches, at grain boundaries and at the M23C6/ γ and M23C6/ η/ γ interfaces, content higher than a critical value obtained by self-healing. An analytical model, based on equivalent chromium content, has been established in this study and successfully validated to predict the time-temperature-precipitation diagram of the σ-phase. The obtained diagram is in good agreement with the experimental results.

  9. ENSO-induced inter-annual sea level variability in the Singapore strait

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Soumya, M.; Vethamony, P.; Tkalich, P.

    Sea level data from four tide gauge stations in the SS (Tanjong Pagar, Sultan Shoal, Sembawang and Raffles Lighthouse) for the period 1970-2012 were extracted to study the ENSO-induced interannual sea level variability Sea level during this period...

  10. Tree establishment along an ENSO experimental gradient in the Atacama desert

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Squeo, F.A.; Holmgren, M.; Jimenez, L.; Alban, L.; Reyes, J.; Gutierrez, J.R.

    2007-01-01

    Questions: (1) What are the roles of regional climate and plant growth rate for seedling establishment during ENSO rainy pulses along the western coast of South America? (2) What is the water threshold for tree seedling establishment in these arid ecosystems? Location: Atacama Desert, western South

  11. Effect of AMOC collapse on ENSO in a high resolution general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williamson, Mark S.; Collins, Mat; Drijfhout, Sybren S.; Kahana, Ron; Mecking, Jennifer V.; Lenton, Timothy M.

    2018-04-01

    We look at changes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a high-resolution eddy-permitting climate model experiment in which the Atlantic Meridional Circulation (AMOC) is switched off using freshwater hosing. The ENSO mode is shifted eastward and its period becomes longer and more regular when the AMOC is off. The eastward shift can be attributed to an anomalous eastern Ekman transport in the mean equatorial Pacific ocean state. Convergence of this transport deepens the thermocline in the eastern tropical Pacific and increases the temperature anomaly relaxation time, causing increased ENSO period. The anomalous Ekman transport is caused by a surface northerly wind anomaly in response to the meridional sea surface temperature dipole that results from switching the AMOC off. In contrast to a previous study with an earlier version of the model, which showed an increase in ENSO amplitude in an AMOC off experiment, here the amplitude remains the same as in the AMOC on control state. We attribute this difference to variations in the response of decreased stochastic forcing in the different models, which competes with the reduced damping of temperature anomalies. In the new high-resolution model, these effects approximately cancel resulting in no change in amplitude.

  12. Corporate social responsibility as a business strategy: Stora Enso-WWF partnership project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tysiachniouk, M.S.

    2009-01-01

    The paper analyzes the strategic partnership between transnational corporation Stora-Enso and international nongovernmental organization NGO WWF as a business strategy that helps the company to adopt its business to the turbulent environment of the economy in transition. In this paper I draw from

  13. The 1950-1998 warm ENSO events and regional implications to ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    1998 seasonal El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is investigated in 502 rivers gauged in 9 countries of the Southern African region. We found some evidence of possible links between available surface water resources in terms of mean annual ...

  14. Impact of ENSO events on the Kruger National Park’s vegetation

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Wessels, Konrad J

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available the Kruger National Park shows the strong relationship between the ENSO episodes (droughts during El Niño and high rainfall during La Niña episodes), rainfall, grass production and satellite time-series data of vegetation activity. El Niño conditions have...

  15. Cord Blood Acute Phase Reactants Predict Early Onset Neonatal Sepsis in Preterm Infants.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leena B Mithal

    Full Text Available Early onset sepsis (EOS is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in preterm infants, yet diagnosis remains inadequate resulting in missed cases or prolonged empiric antibiotics with adverse consequences. Evaluation of acute phase reactant (APR biomarkers in umbilical cord blood at birth may improve EOS detection in preterm infants with intrauterine infection.In this nested case-control study, infants (29.7 weeks gestation, IQR: 27.7-32.2 were identified from a longitudinal cohort with archived cord blood and placental histopathology. Patients were categorized using culture, laboratory, clinical, and antibiotic treatment data into sepsis groups: confirmed sepsis (cEOS, n = 12; presumed sepsis (PS, n = 30; and no sepsis (controls, n = 30. Nine APRs were measured in duplicate from cord blood using commercially available multiplex immunoassays (Bio-Plex Pro™. In addition, placental histopathologic data were linked to biomarker results.cEOS organisms were Escherichia coli, Streptococcus agalactiae, Proteus mirabilis, Haemophilus influenzae and Listeria monocytogenes. C-reactive protein (CRP, serum amyloid A (SAA, haptoglobin (Hp, serum amyloid P and ferritin were significantly elevated in cEOS compared to controls (p<0.01. SAA, CRP, and Hp were elevated in cEOS but not in PS (p<0.01 and had AUCs of 99%, 96%, and 95% respectively in predicting cEOS. Regression analysis revealed robust associations of SAA, CRP, and Hp with EOS after adjustment for covariates. Procalcitonin, fibrinogen, α-2-macroglobulin and tissue plasminogen activator were not significantly different across groups. Placental acute inflammation was associated with APR elevation and was present in all cEOS, 9 PS, and 17 control infants.This study shows that certain APRs are elevated in cord blood of premature infants with EOS of intrauterine origin. SAA, CRP, and Hp at birth have potential diagnostic utility for risk stratification and identification of infants with EOS.

  16. Does the Ovarian Stimulation Phase Length Predict In vitro Fertilization Outcomes?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angela Baerwald

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Bi-directional communication between the follicle and oocyte is necessary toregulate follicle and oocyte development. Currently, it is not practical to monitor the serial growthof individual follicles during assisted reproduction. The ovarian stimulation phase length (SPLis an indirect measure of mean follicular growth rate. The objective of this study was to test thehypothesis that a short or long SPL would be associated with suboptimal outcomes in womenundergoing in vitro fertilization (IVF.Materials and Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted in 140 women who underwentIVF. Follicle development was monitored every 2-3 days during ovarian stimulation usingtransvaginal ultrasonography. Once > 3 follicles reached ≥ 17 mm, human chorionic gonadotropin(hCG was administered. Oocyte retrieval was performed approximately 35 hours after hCG.Oocytes underwent IVF on the day of collection and were evaluated daily thereafter. Embryos weretransferred on days 3 or 5, depending on the number and quality of embryos available. Associationsbetween SPL, age, follicle, oocyte, embryo and pregnancy outcomes were evaluated (SPSS version17.0; SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL, USA.Results: A SPL of 11 days was associated with an optimal number of follicles that developed to≥ 6 mm, ≥ 10 mm and ≥ 15 mm; serum estradiol concentrations; and number of oocytes collected(p0.05. Associations betweenSPL and outcomes were not influenced by age (p>0.05.Conclusion: The ovarian SPL can be used to predict the number of follicles that develop, oocytescollected and serum estradiol concentrations, but not embryo or pregnancy outcomes.

  17. Numerical Predictions of Wind Turbine Power and Aerodynamic Loads for the NREL Phase II and IV Combined Experiment Rotor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duque, Earl P. N.; Johnson, Wayne; vanDam, C. P.; Chao, David D.; Cortes, Regina; Yee, Karen

    1999-01-01

    Accurate, reliable and robust numerical predictions of wind turbine rotor power remain a challenge to the wind energy industry. The literature reports various methods that compare predictions to experiments. The methods vary from Blade Element Momentum Theory (BEM), Vortex Lattice (VL), to variants of Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RaNS). The BEM and VL methods consistently show discrepancies in predicting rotor power at higher wind speeds mainly due to inadequacies with inboard stall and stall delay models. The RaNS methodologies show promise in predicting blade stall. However, inaccurate rotor vortex wake convection, boundary layer turbulence modeling and grid resolution has limited their accuracy. In addition, the inherently unsteady stalled flow conditions become computationally expensive for even the best endowed research labs. Although numerical power predictions have been compared to experiment. The availability of good wind turbine data sufficient for code validation experimental data that has been extracted from the IEA Annex XIV download site for the NREL Combined Experiment phase II and phase IV rotor. In addition, the comparisons will show data that has been further reduced into steady wind and zero yaw conditions suitable for comparisons to "steady wind" rotor power predictions. In summary, the paper will present and discuss the capabilities and limitations of the three numerical methods and make available a database of experimental data suitable to help other numerical methods practitioners validate their own work.

  18. Interdecadal Change in the Relationship Between the North Pacific Oscillation and the Pacific Meridional Mode and Its Impact on ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, So-Jung; An, Soon-Il

    2018-02-01

    Two leading but independent modes of Northern Pacific atmospheric circulation: the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and the Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM), are known external triggers of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by the sequential migration of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies into the tropics possibly by means of wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedbacks. Because of the similar roles of NPO and PMM, most previous studies have explored them with no separation. Here, we investigate their independent and combined effects in triggering ENSO, and find that when the NPO and PMM occur simultaneously during spring, ENSO or ENSO-like SST anomalies are generated during the following winter; whereas when either the NPO or PMM occur alone, ENSO events rarely occur. Furthermore, the relationship between NPO and PMM shows noticeable interdecadal variability, which is related to decadal changes in the mean upper-level jet stream over the North Pacific. Changes in the upper-level jet stream modify the location of the center of the Aleutian Low, which plays a role in bridging the NPO and PMM processes, especially when it migrates to the southwest. The period when NPO and PMM are well correlated coincides somewhat with the active ENSO period, and vice versa, indicating that a more efficient trigger due to combined NPO-PMM processes results in a higher variation of ENSO. Finally, analysis of the coupled model control simulations strongly supports our observational analysis results.

  19. Life prediction methodology for ceramic components of advanced heat engines. Phase 1: Volume 1, Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cuccio, J.C.; Brehm, P.; Fang, H.T. [Allied-Signal Aerospace Co., Phoenix, AZ (United States). Garrett Engine Div.] [and others

    1995-03-01

    Emphasis of this program is to develop and demonstrate ceramics life prediction methods, including fast fracture, stress rupture, creep, oxidation, and nondestructive evaluation. Significant advancements were made in these methods and their predictive capabilities successfully demonstrated.

  20. Is ENSO related to 2015 Easter Star Capsized on the Yangtze River of China?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, P.

    2015-12-01

    Natural disasters have profound effects on community security and economic damage of China's Hubei province. In June 1st, 2015, a cruise ship, Easter Star, capsized on Yangtze River in Hubei province with 442 died. What reason gives rise to such strong convection causing ship sunk? Based on the wind disasters of Hubei province happened in 1963-2015, this study analyzes their features bytime-series regression, and correlates them to global El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The compared results demonstrated that the wind disasters shown an increasing tendency. There are two peaks corresponding to the strongest ENSO peaks during the past 50 years; each peak lasts two-three years. The facts demonstrated an essential linear relation between the ENSO phenomena and wind disasters in Hubei province. 2015 Easter Star capsized happened at current El Niño event in 2014-2015. We also observed that the historical wind disasters appeared in seasonal variation. Over 90% events concentrated in spring and summer; very few events happened in autumn and winter. Moreover, the disasters depend on the geographic conditions. Most disasters concentrated in four zones, named as Xingshan-Baokang, Xuanen, Wufeng-Yichang, Jingzhou-Gongan, in which Xingshan and Changyang are the two most density of zones. Yangtze River provides an air flowing conduct for strong convective winds. It can be concluded that the strong convection causing 2015 Easter Star capsized is related to current global ENSO phenomenon.Keywords: ENSO, wind disaster, time-series regression analysis, Easter Star, Yangtze River, Hubei Province,

  1. The interdecadal changes of south pacific sea surface temperature in the mid-1990s and their connections with ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Gang; Li, Chongyin; Tan, Yanke; Bai, Tao

    2014-01-01

    The characteristic changes of South Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) for the period January 1979 to December 2011, during which the 1990s Pacific pan-decadal variability (PDV) interdecadal regime shifts occurred, were examined. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis was applied to the monthly mean SSTA for two sub-periods: January 1979 to December 1994 (P1) and January 1996 to December 2011 (P2). Both the spatial and temporal features of the leading EOF mode for P1 and P2 showed a remarkable difference. The spatial structure of the leading EOF changed from a tripolar pattern for P1 (EOF-P1) to a dipole-like pattern for P2 (EOF-P2). Besides, EOF-P1 (EOF-P2) had significant spectral peaks at 4.6 yr (2.7 yr). EOF-P2 not only had a closer association with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but also showed a faster response to ENSO than EOF-P1 based on their lead-lag relationships with ENSO. During the development of ENSO, the South Pacific SSTA associated with ENSO for both P1 and P2 showed a significant eastward propagation. However, after the peak of ENSO, EOF-P1 showed a stronger persistence than EOF-P2, which still showed eastward propagation. The variability of the SSTA associated with the whole process of ENSO evolution during P1 and the SSTA associated with the development of ENSO during P2 support the existence of ocean-to-atmosphere forcing, but the SSTA associated with the decay of ENSO shows the phenomenon of atmosphere-to-ocean forcing.

  2. Improved ensemble-mean forecast skills of ENSO events by a zero-mean stochastic model-error model of an intermediate coupled model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, F.; Zhu, J.

    2015-12-01

    To perform an ensemble-based ENSO probabilistic forecast, the crucial issue is to design a reliable ensemble prediction strategy that should include the major uncertainties of a forecast system. In this study, we developed a new general ensemble perturbation technique to improve the ensemble-mean predictive skill of forecasting ENSO using an intermediate coupled model (ICM). The model uncertainties are first estimated and analyzed from EnKF analysis results through assimilating observed SST. Then, based on the pre-analyzed properties of the model errors, a zero-mean stochastic model-error model is developed to mainly represent the model uncertainties induced by some important physical processes missed in the coupled model (i.e., stochastic atmospheric forcing/MJO, extra-tropical cooling and warming, Indian Ocean Dipole mode, etc.). Each member of an ensemble forecast is perturbed by the stochastic model-error model at each step during the 12-month forecast process, and the stochastical perturbations are added into the modeled physical fields to mimic the presence of these high-frequency stochastic noises and model biases and their effect on the predictability of the coupled system. The impacts of stochastic model-error perturbations on ENSO deterministic predictions are examined by performing two sets of 21-yr retrospective forecast experiments. The two forecast schemes are differentiated by whether they considered the model stochastic perturbations, with both initialized by the ensemble-mean analysis states from EnKF. The comparison results suggest that the stochastic model-error perturbations have significant and positive impacts on improving the ensemble-mean prediction skills during the entire 12-month forecast process. Because the nonlinear feature of the coupled model can induce the nonlinear growth of the added stochastic model errors with model integration, especially through the nonlinear heating mechanism with the vertical advection term of the model, the

  3. Predicting glass-to-glass and liquid-to-liquid phase transitions in supercooled water using classical nucleation theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tournier, Robert F.

    2018-01-01

    Glass-to-glass and liquid-to-liquid phase transitions are observed in bulk and confined water, with or without applied pressure. They result from the competition of two liquid phases separated by an enthalpy difference depending on temperature. The classical nucleation equation of these phases is completed by this quantity existing at all temperatures, a pressure contribution, and an enthalpy excess. This equation leads to two homogeneous nucleation temperatures in each liquid phase; the first one (Tn- below Tm) being the formation temperature of an "ordered" liquid phase and the second one corresponding to the overheating temperature (Tn+ above Tm). Thermodynamic properties, double glass transition temperatures, sharp enthalpy and volume changes are predicted in agreement with experimental results. The first-order transition line at TLL = 0.833 × Tm between fragile and strong liquids joins two critical points. Glass phase above Tg becomes "ordered" liquid phase disappearing at TLL at low pressure and at Tn+ = 1.302 × Tm at high pressure.

  4. Performance of predictive models in phase equilibria of complex associating systems: PC-SAFT and CEOS/GE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Bender

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Cubic equations of state combined with excess Gibbs energy predictive models (like UNIFAC and equations of state based on applied statistical mechanics are among the main alternatives for phase equilibria prediction involving polar substances in wide temperature and pressure ranges. In this work, the predictive performances of the PC-SAFT with association contribution and Peng-Robinson (PR combined with UNIFAC (Do through mixing rules are compared. Binary and multi-component systems involving polar and non-polar substances were analyzed. Results were also compared to experimental data available in the literature. Results show a similar predictive performance for PC-SAFT with association and cubic equations combined with UNIFAC (Do through mixing rules. Although PC-SAFT with association requires less parameters, it is more complex and requires more computation time.

  5. Interleaved Buck Converter with Variable Number of Active Phases and a Predictive Current Sharing Scheme

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jakobsen, Lars Tønnes; Garcia, O.; Oliver, J. A.

    2008-01-01

    The efficiency of an interleaved Buck converter is typically low at light load conditions because of the switching losses in each of the switching stages. Improvements in the converter efficiency can be achieved by dynamically changing the number of active phases depending on the load current....... This paper addresses the issues related to the transient response of the converter when the number of active phases is changed by a digital control scheme. The problem arises because the current in the individual phases of the interleaved Buck converter will not be equal immediately after the controller has...... changed the number of active phases. This paper proposes a current equalisation scheme that adjusts the duty cycle of each phase in a manner that ensures equal average inductor current in all active phases in one or two PWM periods. The current equalisation scheme relies on the measurement of the output...

  6. Predictive Modelling of Phase-Transfer Catalyst Systems for Improved and Innovative Design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Anantpinijwatna, Amata; Hyung Kim, Sun; Sales-Cruz, Mauricio

    2016-01-01

    Phase-transfer catalyst (PTC) systems contain two immiscible liquid phases with a heterogeneous PTC transferring active ion from one phase to the other for converting the reactant to the desired product, and in the process generating the inactive ion. This type of reacting systems is receiving...... increasing attention as a novel organic synthesis option due to its flexible and easier operation, higher production yield, and ability to eliminate expensive solvents, although, not eliminating the use of solvents. New mathematical models of the PTC system, which includes physical and chemical equilibrium......, reaction mechanism and unit operation has been developed. In the developed model, the PTC system is divided into four sub-systems of aqueous-organic solvent partition, inorganic salt in aqueous phase, PTC in aqueous phase, and PTC in aqueous phase. Each subsystem requires an appropriate thermodynamic model...

  7. Phase angle assessment by bioelectrical impedance analysis and its predictive value for malnutrition risk in hospitalized geriatric patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varan, Hacer Dogan; Bolayir, Basak; Kara, Ozgur; Arik, Gunes; Kizilarslanoglu, Muhammet Cemal; Kilic, Mustafa Kemal; Sumer, Fatih; Kuyumcu, Mehmet Emin; Yesil, Yusuf; Yavuz, Burcu Balam; Halil, Meltem; Cankurtaran, Mustafa

    2016-12-01

    Phase angle (PhA) value determined by bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) is an indicator of cell membrane damage and body cell mass. Recent studies have shown that low PhA value is associated with increased nutritional risk in various group of patients. However, there have been only a few studies performed globally assessing the relationship between nutritional risk and PhA in hospitalized geriatric patients. The aim of the study is to evaluate the predictive value of the PhA for malnutrition risk in hospitalized geriatric patients. One hundred and twenty-two hospitalized geriatric patients were included in this cross-sectional study. Comprehensive geriatric assessment tests and BIA measurements were performed within the first 48 h after admission. Nutritional risk state of the patients was determined with NRS-2002. Phase angle values of the patients with malnutrition risk were compared with the patients that did not have the same risk. The independent variables for predicting malnutrition risk were determined. SPSS version 15 was utilized for the statistical analyzes. The patients with malnutrition risk had significantly lower phase angle values than the patients without malnutrition risk (p = 0.003). ROC curve analysis suggested that the optimum PhA cut-off point for malnutrition risk was 4.7° with 79.6 % sensitivity, 64.6 % specificity, 73.9 % positive predictive value, and 73.9 % negative predictive value. BMI, prealbumin, PhA, and Mini Mental State Examination Test scores were the independent variables for predicting malnutrition risk. PhA can be a useful, independent indicator for predicting malnutrition risk in hospitalized geriatric patients.

  8. Seismic Prediction While Drilling (SPWD): Seismic exploration ahead of the drill bit using phased array sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaksch, Katrin; Giese, Rüdiger; Kopf, Matthias

    2010-05-01

    In the case of drilling for deep reservoirs previous exploration is indispensable. In recent years the focus shifted more on geological structures like small layers or hydrothermal fault systems. Beside 2D- or 3D-seismics from the surface and seismic measurements like Vertical Seismic Profile (VSP) or Seismic While Drilling (SWD) within a borehole these methods cannot always resolute this structures. The resolution is worsen the deeper and smaller the sought-after structures are. So, potential horizons like small layers in oil exploration or fault zones usable for geothermal energy production could be failed or not identified while drilling. The application of a device to explore the geology with a high resolution ahead of the drill bit in direction of drilling would be of high importance. Such a device would allow adjusting the drilling path according to the real geology and would minimize the risk of discovery and hence the costs for drilling. Within the project SPWD a device for seismic exploration ahead of the drill bit will be developed. This device should allow the seismic exploration to predict areas about 50 to 100 meters ahead of the drill bit with a resolution of one meter. At the GFZ a first prototype consisting of different units for seismic sources, receivers and data loggers has been designed and manufactured. As seismic sources four standard magnetostrictive actuators and as receivers four 3-component-geophones are used. Every unit, actuator or geophone, can be rotated in steps of 15° around the longitudinal axis of the prototype to test different measurement configurations. The SPWD prototype emits signal frequencies of about 500 up to 5000 Hz which are significant higher than in VSP and SWD. An increased radiation of seismic wave energy in the direction of the borehole axis allows the view in areas to be drilled. Therefore, every actuator must be controlled independently of each other regarding to amplitude and phase of the source signal to

  9. Quasi-closed phase forward-backward linear prediction analysis of speech for accurate formant detection and estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gowda, Dhananjaya; Airaksinen, Manu; Alku, Paavo

    2017-09-01

    Recently, a quasi-closed phase (QCP) analysis of speech signals for accurate glottal inverse filtering was proposed. However, the QCP analysis which belongs to the family of temporally weighted linear prediction (WLP) methods uses the conventional forward type of sample prediction. This may not be the best choice especially in computing WLP models with a hard-limiting weighting function. A sample selective minimization of the prediction error in WLP reduces the effective number of samples available within a given window frame. To counter this problem, a modified quasi-closed phase forward-backward (QCP-FB) analysis is proposed, wherein each sample is predicted based on its past as well as future samples thereby utilizing the available number of samples more effectively. Formant detection and estimation experiments on synthetic vowels generated using a physical modeling approach as well as natural speech utterances show that the proposed QCP-FB method yields statistically significant improvements over the conventional linear prediction and QCP methods.

  10. On the prediction of single-phase forced convection heat transfer in narrow rectangular channels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghione, Alberto; Noel, Brigitte; Vinai, Paolo; Demazière, Christophe

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, selected heat transfer correlations for single-phase forced convection are assessed for the case of narrow rectangular channels. The work is of interest in the thermal-hydraulic analysis of the Jules Horowitz Reactor (JHR), which is a research reactor under construction at CEA-Cadarache (France). In order to evaluate the validity of the correlations, about 300 tests from the SULTAN-JHR database were used. The SULTAN-JHR program was carried out at CEA-Grenoble and it includes different kinds of tests for two different vertical rectangular channels with height of 600 mm and gap of 1.51 and 2.16 mm. The experimental conditions range between 2 - 9 bar for the pressure; 0.5 - 18 m/s for the coolant velocity and 0.5 - 7.5 MW/m 2 for the heat flux (whose axial distribution is uniform). Forty-two thermocouples and eight pressure taps were placed at several axial locations, measuring wall temperature and pressure respectively. The analysis focused on turbulent flow with Reynolds numbers between 5.5 x 10 3 - 2.4 x 10 5 and Prandtl numbers between 1.5 - 6. It was shown that standard correlations as the Dittus-Boelter and Seider-Tate significantly under-estimate the heat transfer coefficient, especially at high Reynolds number. Other correlations specifically designed for narrow rectangular channels were also taken into account and compared. The correlation of Popov-Petukhov in the form suggested by Siman-Tov still under-estimates the heat transfer coefficient, even if slight improvements could be seen. A better agreement for the tests with gap equal to 2.16 mm could be found with the correlation of Ma and the one of Liang. However the heat transfer coefficient when the gap is equal to 1.51 mm could not be predicted accurately. Furthermore these correlations were based on data at low Reynolds numbers (up to 13000) and low heat flux, so the use of them for SULTAN-JHR may be questionable. According to the authors’ knowledge, existing models of heat transfer

  11. Design and implementation of predictive current control of three-phase PWM rectifier using space-vector modulation (SVM)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bouafia, Abdelouahab; Gaubert, Jean-Paul; Krim, Fateh

    2010-01-01

    This paper is concerned with the design and implementation of current control of three-phase PWM rectifier based on predictive control strategy. The proposed predictive current control technique operates with constant switching frequency, using space-vector modulation (SVM). The main goal of the designed current control scheme is to maintain the dc-bus voltage at the required level and to achieve the unity power factor (UPF) operation of the converter. For this purpose, two predictive current control algorithms, in the sense of deadbeat control, are developed for direct controlling input current vector of the converter in the stationary α-β and rotating d-q reference frame, respectively. For both predictive current control algorithms, at the beginning of each switching period, the required rectifier average voltage vector allowing the cancellation of both tracking errors of current vector components at the end of the switching period, is computed and applied during a predefined switching period by means of SVM. The main advantages of the proposed predictive current control are that no need to use hysteresis comparators or PI controllers in current control loops, and constant switching frequency. Finally, the developed predictive current control algorithms were tested both in simulations and experimentally, and illustrative results are presented here. Results have proven excellent performance in steady and transient states, and verify the validity of the proposed predictive current control which is compared to other control strategies.

  12. The Prediction of the Mechanical Properties for Dual-Phase High Strength Steel Grades Based on Microstructure Characteristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emil Evin

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The decrease of emissions from vehicle operation is connected mainly to the reduction of the car’s body weight. The high strength and good formability of the dual phase steel grades predetermine these to be used in the structural parts of the car’s body safety zones. The plastic properties of dual phase steel grades are determined by the ferrite matrix while the strength properties are improved by the volume and distribution of martensite. The aim of this paper is to describe the relationship between the mechanical properties and the parameters of structure and substructure. The heat treatment of low carbon steel X60, low alloyed steel S460MC, and dual phase steel DP600 allowed for them to reach states with a wide range of volume fractions of secondary phases and grain size. The mechanical properties were identified by a tensile test, volume fraction of secondary phases, and grain size were measured by image analysis. It was found that by increasing the annealing temperature, the volume fraction of the secondary phase increased, and the ferrite grains were refined. Regression analysis was used to find out the equations for predicting mechanical properties based on the volume fraction of the secondary phase and grain size, following the annealing temperature. The hardening mechanism of the dual phase steel grades for the states they reached was described by the relationship between the strain-hardening exponent and the density of dislocations. This allows for the designing of dual phase steel grades that are “tailored” to the needs of the automotive industry customers.

  13. Health and Maintenance Status Determination and Predictive Fault Diagnosis System, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The objective of this project is to demonstrate intelligent health and maintenance status determination and predictive fault diagnosis techniques for NASA rocket...

  14. Retention prediction of highly polar ionizable solutes under gradient conditions on a mixed-mode reversed-phase and weak anion-exchange stationary phase.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balkatzopoulou, P; Fasoula, S; Gika, H; Nikitas, P; Pappa-Louisi, A

    2015-05-29

    In the present work the retention of three highly polar and ionizable solutes - uric acid, nicotinic acid and ascorbic acid - was investigated on a mixed-mode reversed-phase and weak anion-exchange (RP/WAX) stationary phase in buffered aqueous acetonitrile (ACN) mobile phases. A U-shaped retention behavior was observed for all solutes with respect to the eluent organic modifier content studied in a range of 5-95% (v/v). This retention behavior clearly demonstrates the presence of a HILIC-type retention mechanism at ACN-rich hydro-organic eluents and an RP-like retention at aqueous-rich hydro-organic eluents. Hence, this column should be promising for application under both RP and HILIC gradient elution modes. For this reason, a series of programmed elution runs were carried out with increasing (RP) and decreasing (HILIC) organic solvent concentration in the mobile phase. This dual gradient process was successfully modeled by two retention models exhibiting a quadratic or a cubic dependence of the logarithm of the solute retention factor (lnk) upon the organic modifier volume fraction (φ). It was found that both models produced by gradient retention data allow the prediction of solute retention times for both types of programmed elution on the mixed-mode column. Four, in the case of the quadratic model, or five, in the case of the cubic model, initial HILIC- and RP-type gradient runs gave satisfactory retention predictions of any similar kind elution program, even with different flow rate, with an overall error of only 2.5 or 1.7%, respectively. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Prediction of a new region in the H-T phase diagram of a disordered type II superconductor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nandgaonkar, Ajay; Kanhere, D.G.; Trivedi, Nandini

    1997-01-01

    The phase diagram of a type II superconductor (SC) in the magnetic field (B) - temperature (T) plane is shown schematically. At low T the system consists of an Abrikosov triangular vortex lattice which melts as the temperature is increased. At high B, the rigidity of the vortex lattice C 66 decreases with increasing B. Thus, the melting curve essentially tracks the H c2 behaviour, as shown in region (a) in fig. It was further suggested by Nelson, based on a mapping of vortices in 3D onto a problem of boson world-lines in spatial 2D and 1 imaginary dimension, that the classical statistical mechanics of vortices is analogous to the problem of quantum melting of the bosons. He used this mapping to predict a novel reentrant behavior of the phase boundary. These predictions were verified by experiments

  16. A 600 k.y. record of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Evidence for persisting teleconnections during the Middle Eocene greenhouse climate of Central Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenz, Olaf K.; Wilde, Volker; Riegel, Walter; Harms, Franz-Juergen

    2010-07-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a globally important factor in today's climate dynamics. Annually laminated oil shales from the maar lake of Messel (Germany) provide high-resolution sedimentological and paleoenvironmental data of a time interval of ˜600 k.y. during the Eocene greenhouse phase. Individual laminae consist of a light spring and summer algal layer (Tetraedron minimum layer) and a dark winter layer composed of terrigenous background sediment. Four sections were selected from the core of the Messel 2001 well in order to count varves and to measure total varve thickness and the thickess of light and dark laminae. Spectral analyses were done in order to detect possible cyclic fluctuations in varve thickness. Fluctuations are significant in the quasi-biennial (2.1-2.5 yr) and low-frequency band (2.8-3.5 yr, 4.9-5.6 yr), thus showing that algal growth as well as the background sedimentation were controlled by ENSO effects at least over a time interval of 600 k.y. This confirms the existence of a previously postulated robust Eocene ENSO. Significant peaks within a quasi-decadal (10-11 yr), interdecadal (17-26 yr), and multidecadal band (˜52 yr, ˜82 yr) show either the enduring influence of more or less cyclic instabilities or the influence of solar cycles.

  17. Climate Prediction Center - Monitoring and Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site Map News monthly data, time series, and maps for various climate parameters, such as precipitation, temperature Oscillations (ENSO) and other climate patterns such as the North Atlantic and Pacific Decadal Oscillations, and

  18. Influence of ENSO on coastal flood hazard and exposure at the global-scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muis, S.; Haigh, I. D.; Guimarães Nobre, G.; Aerts, J.; Ward, P.

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant signal of interannual climate variability. The unusually warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the tropical Pacific drives interannual variability in both mean and extreme sea levels, which in turn may influence the probabilities and impacts of coastal flooding. We assess the influence of ENSO on coastal flood hazard and exposure using daily timeseries from the Global Time and Surge Reanalysis (GTSR) dataset (Muis et al., 2016). As the GTSR timeseries do not include steric effects (i.e. density differences), we improve the GTSR timeseries by adding steric sea levels. Evaluation against observed sea levels shows that the including steric sea levels leads to a much better representation of the seasonal and interannual variability. We show that sea level anomalies occur during ENSO years with higher sea levels during La Niña in the South-Atlantic, Indian Ocean and the West Pacific, whereas sea levels are lower in the east Pacific. The pattern is generally inversed for El Niño. We also find an effect of ENSO in the number of people exposed to coastal flooding. Although the effect is minor at the global-scale, it may be important for flood risk management to consider at the national or sub national levels. Previous studies at the global-scale have used tide gauge observation to assess the influence of ENSO on extreme sea levels. The advantage of our approach over observations is that GTSR provides a consistent dataset with a full global coverage for the period 1979-2014. This allows us to assess ENSO's influence on sea level extremes anywhere in the world. Furthermore, it enables us to also calculate the impacts of extreme sea levels in terms of coastal flooding and exposed population. ReferencesMuis et al (2016) A global reanalysis of storm surges and extreme sea levels. Nature Communications.7:11969. doi:10.1038/ncomms11969.

  19. Sensitivity of Water Scarcity Events to ENSO-Driven Climate Variability at the Global Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Eisner, S.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

    2015-01-01

    Globally, freshwater shortage is one of the most dangerous risks for society. Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have aggravated water scarcity over the past decades. A wide range of studies show that water scarcity will intensify in the future, as a result of both increased consumptive water use and, in some regions, climate change. Although it is well-known that El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects patterns of precipitation and drought at global and regional scales, little attention has yet been paid to the impacts of climate variability on water scarcity conditions, despite its importance for adaptation planning. Therefore, we present the first global-scale sensitivity assessment of water scarcity to ENSO, the most dominant signal of climate variability. We show that over the time period 1961-2010, both water availability and water scarcity conditions are significantly correlated with ENSO-driven climate variability over a large proportion of the global land area (> 28.1 %); an area inhabited by more than 31.4% of the global population. We also found, however, that climate variability alone is often not enough to trigger the actual incidence of water scarcity events. The sensitivity of a region to water scarcity events, expressed in terms of land area or population exposed, is determined by both hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Currently, the population actually impacted by water scarcity events consists of 39.6% (CTA: consumption-to-availability ratio) and 41.1% (WCI: water crowding index) of the global population, whilst only 11.4% (CTA) and 15.9% (WCI) of the global population is at the same time living in areas sensitive to ENSO-driven climate variability. These results are contrasted, however, by differences in growth rates found under changing socioeconomic conditions, which are relatively high in regions exposed to water scarcity events. Given the correlations found between ENSO and water availability and scarcity

  20. An analytical model for prediction of two-phase (noncondensable) flow pump performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Furuya, O.

    1985-01-01

    During operational transients or a hypothetical LOCA (loss of coolant accident) condition, the recirculating coolant of PWR (pressurized water reactor) may flash into steam due to a loss of line pressure. Under such two-phase flow conditions, it is well known that the recirculation pump becomes unable to generate the same head as that of the single-phase flow case. Similar situations also exist in oil well submersible pumps where a fair amount of gas is contained in oil. Based on the one dimensional control volume method, an analytical method has been developed to determine the performance of pumps operating under two-phase flow conditions. The analytical method has incorporated pump geometry, void fraction, flow slippage and flow regime into the basic formula, but neglected the compressibility and condensation effects. During the course of model development, it has been found that the head degradation is mainly caused by higher acceleration on liquid phase and deceleration on gas phase than in the case of single-phase flows. The numerical results for head degradations and torques obtained with the model favorably compared with the air/water two-phase flow test data of Babcock and Wilcox (1/3 scale) and Creare (1/20 scale) pumps

  1. Neural network prediction of relativistic electrons at geosynchronous orbit during the storm recovery phase: effects of recurring substorms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Fukata

    2002-07-01

    Full Text Available During the recovery phase of geomagnetic storms, the flux of relativistic (>2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbits is enhanced. This enhancement reaches a level that can cause devastating damage to instruments on satellites. To predict these temporal variations, we have developed neural network models that predict the flux for the period 1–12 h ahead. The electron-flux data obtained during storms, from the Space Environment Monitor on board a Geostationary Meteorological Satellite, were used to construct the model. Various combinations of the input parameters AL, SAL, Dst and SDst were tested (where S denotes the summation from the time of the minimum Dst. It was found that the model, including SAL as one of the input parameters, can provide some measure of relativistic electron-flux prediction at geosynchronous orbit during the recovery phase. We suggest from this result that the relativistic electron-flux enhancement during the recovery phase is associated with recurring substorms after Dst minimum and their accumulation effect.Key words. Magnetospheric physics (energetic particles, trapped; magnetospheric configuration and dynamics; storms and substorms

  2. On the phase space structure of IP3 induced Ca2+ signalling and concepts for predictive modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falcke, Martin; Moein, Mahsa; TilÅ«naitÄ--, Agne; Thul, Rüdiger; Skupin, Alexander

    2018-04-01

    The correspondence between mathematical structures and experimental systems is the basis of the generalizability of results found with specific systems and is the basis of the predictive power of theoretical physics. While physicists have confidence in this correspondence, it is less recognized in cellular biophysics. On the one hand, the complex organization of cellular dynamics involving a plethora of interacting molecules and the basic observation of cell variability seem to question its possibility. The practical difficulties of deriving the equations describing cellular behaviour from first principles support these doubts. On the other hand, ignoring such a correspondence would severely limit the possibility of predictive quantitative theory in biophysics. Additionally, the existence of functional modules (like pathways) across cell types suggests also the existence of mathematical structures with comparable universality. Only a few cellular systems have been sufficiently investigated in a variety of cell types to follow up these basic questions. IP3 induced Ca2+signalling is one of them, and the mathematical structure corresponding to it is subject of ongoing discussion. We review the system's general properties observed in a variety of cell types. They are captured by a reaction diffusion system. We discuss the phase space structure of its local dynamics. The spiking regime corresponds to noisy excitability. Models focussing on different aspects can be derived starting from this phase space structure. We discuss how the initial assumptions on the set of stochastic variables and phase space structure shape the predictions of parameter dependencies of the mathematical models resulting from the derivation.

  3. Improved Prediction of Falls in Community-Dwelling Older Adults Through Phase-Dependent Entropy of Daily-Life Walking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Espen A. F. Ihlen

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Age and age-related diseases have been suggested to decrease entropy of human gait kinematics, which is thought to make older adults more susceptible to falls. In this study we introduce a new entropy measure, called phase-dependent generalized multiscale entropy (PGME, and test whether this measure improves fall-risk prediction in community-dwelling older adults. PGME can assess phase-dependent changes in the stability of gait dynamics that result from kinematic changes in events such as heel strike and toe-off. PGME was assessed for trunk acceleration of 30 s walking epochs in a re-analysis of 1 week of daily-life activity data from the FARAO study, originally described by van Schooten et al. (2016. The re-analyzed data set contained inertial sensor data from 52 single- and 46 multiple-time prospective fallers in a 6 months follow-up period, and an equal number of non-falling controls matched by age, weight, height, gender, and the use of walking aids. The predictive ability of PGME for falls was assessed using a partial least squares regression. PGME had a superior predictive ability of falls among single-time prospective fallers when compared to the other gait features. The single-time fallers had a higher PGME (p < 0.0001 of their trunk acceleration at 60% of their step cycle when compared with non-fallers. No significant differences were found between PGME of multiple-time fallers and non-fallers, but PGME was found to improve the prediction model of multiple-time fallers when combined with other gait features. These findings suggest that taking into account phase-dependent changes in the stability of the gait dynamics has additional value for predicting falls in older people, especially for single-time prospective fallers.

  4. How predictable is the northern hemisphere summer upper-tropospheric circulation?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, June-Yi; Wang, Bin [University of Hawaii/IPRC, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, HI (United States); Ding, Q. [University of Washington, Department of Earth and Space Sciences and Quaternary Research Center, Seattle, WA (United States); Ha, K.J.; Ahn, J.B. [Pusan National University, Division of Earth Environmental System, Busan (Korea, Republic of); Kumar, A. [NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Stern, B. [Princeton University, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ (United States); Alves, O. [Bureau of Meteorology, Centre for Australia Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR), Melbourne, VIC (Australia)

    2011-09-15

    The retrospective forecast skill of three coupled climate models (NCEP CFS, GFDL CM2.1, and CAWCR POAMA 1.5) and their multi-model ensemble (MME) is evaluated, focusing on the Northern Hemisphere (NH) summer upper-tropospheric circulation along with surface temperature and precipitation for the 25-year period of 1981-2005. The seasonal prediction skill for the NH 200-hPa geopotential height basically comes from the coupled models' ability in predicting the first two empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of interannual variability, because the models cannot replicate the residual higher modes. The first two leading EOF modes of the summer 200-hPa circulation account for about 84% (35.4%) of the total variability over the NH tropics (extratropics) and offer a hint of realizable potential predictability. The MME is able to predict both spatial and temporal characteristics of the first EOF mode (EOF1) even at a 5-month lead (January initial condition) with a pattern correlation coefficient (PCC) skill of 0.96 and a temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) skill of 0.62. This long-lead predictability of the EOF1 comes mainly from the prolonged impacts of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as the EOF1 tends to occur during the summer after the mature phase of ENSO. The second EOF mode (EOF2), on the other hand, is related to the developing ENSO and also the interdecadal variability of the sea surface temperature over the North Pacific and North Atlantic Ocean. The MME also captures the EOF2 at a 5-month lead with a PCC skill of 0.87 and a TCC skill of 0.67, but these skills are mainly obtained from the zonally symmetric component of the EOF2, not the prominent wavelike structure, the so-called circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) pattern. In both observation and the 1-month lead MME prediction, the first two leading modes are accompanied by significant rainfall and surface air temperature anomalies in the continental regions of the NH extratropics. The MME

  5. The role of microstructure and phase distribution in the failure mechanisms and life prediction model for PSZ coatings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sisson, R. D., Jr.; Sone, Ichiro; Biederman, R. R.

    1985-01-01

    Partially Stabilized Zirconia (PSZ) may become widely used for Thermal Barrier Coatings (TBC). Failure of these coatings can occur due to thermal fatigue in oxidizing atmospheres. The failure is due to the strains that develop due to thermal gradients, differences in thermal expansion coefficients, and oxidation of the bond coating. The role of microstructure and the cubic, tetragonal, and monoclinic phase distribution in the strain development and subsequent failure will be discussed. An X-ray diffraction technique for accurate determination of the fraction of each phase in PSZ will be applied to understanding the phase transformations and strain development. These results will be discussed in terms of developing a model for life prediction in PSZ coatings during thermal cycling.

  6. Improving Performance of LVRT Capability in Single-phase Grid-tied PV Inverters by a Model Predictive Controller

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zangeneh Bighash, Esmaeil; Sadeghzadeh, Seyed Mohammad; Ebrahimzadeh, Esmaeil

    2018-01-01

    dynamic response and stability. To fill in this gap, this paper presents a fast and robust current controller based on a Model-Predictive Control (MPC) for single-phase PV inverters in other to deal with the LVRT operation. In order to confirm the effectiveness of the proposed controller, results...... the voltage sag period is short, a fast dynamic performance along with a soft behavior of the controller is the most important issue in the LVRT duration. Recently, some methods like Proportional Resonant (PR) controllers, have been presented to control the single phase PV systems in LVRT mode. However......, these methods have had uncertainties in respect their contribution in LVRT mode. In PR controllers, a fast dynamic response can be obtained by tuning the gains of PR controllers for a high bandwidth, but typically the phase margin is decreased. Therefore, the design of PR controllers needs a tradeoff between...

  7. A parallel solution-adaptive scheme for predicting multi-phase core flows in solid propellant rocket motors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sachdev, J.S.; Groth, C.P.T.; Gottlieb, J.J.

    2003-01-01

    The development of a parallel adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) scheme is described for solving the governing equations for multi-phase (gas-particle) core flows in solid propellant rocket motors (SRM). An Eulerian formulation is used to described the coupled motion between the gas and particle phases. A cell-centred upwind finite-volume discretization and the use of limited solution reconstruction, Riemann solver based flux functions for the gas and particle phases, and explicit multi-stage time-stepping allows for high solution accuracy and computational robustness. A Riemann problem is formulated for prescribing boundary data at the burning surface. Efficient and scalable parallel implementations are achieved with domain decomposition on distributed memory multiprocessor architectures. Numerical results are described to demonstrate the capabilities of the approach for predicting SRM core flows. (author)

  8. PRONOSTICANDO EL ÍNDICE ENSO VARIOS PASOS EN ADELANTE MEDIANTE TÉCNICAS DE MODELAMIENTO NO LINEAL FORECASTING ENSO SEVERAL STEPS AHEAD THROUGH NONLINEAR MODELING TECHNIQUES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Salini Calderón

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Se indica cómo manejar una gran base de datos consistente de series temporales no lineales, aplicando distintas técnicas de modelamiento no lineal a estas series. Aunque no existen guías explícitas de manipulación de series temporales no lineales en la profusa bibliografía actual, existen diferentes enfoques que pueden ser tomados en cuenta. Para ello se estudió una base de datos mensual correspondiente a datos del Fenómeno del Niño (ENSO, entre los años 1866 y 2006. Se explica cómo debe manipularse esta base de datos que poseen características de no linealidad, la cual será usada para hacer pronósticos varios pasos en adelante. Se aplicaron dos test estándar: Información Mutua Promedio (AMI y Falsos Vecinos más Cercanos (FNN. Se obtuvo el espaciamiento óptimo de los datos, así como el número de datos hacia atrás necesarios para pronosticar valores hacia el futuro. Luego, se diseñaron varios modelos de redes neuronales artificiales (RNA, con diferentes reglas de aprendizajes, funciones de transferencia, elementos de procesamiento (o neuronas en la capa escondida, etc., que permitieron hacer pronóstico de hasta 20 pasos en adelante. Las mejores redes correspondieron a aquellas que poseían como regla de aprendizaje la Regla Delta y la Regla Extendida, con función de transferencia sigmoide y tangente hiperbólica. El tipo de RNA usada fue una de multicapas alimentada hacia adelante y entrenada mediante la técnica de propagación hacia atrás. Se probaron redes con una, dos capas ocultas y sin ninguna capa. El mejor modelo que se obtuvo resultó ser uno consistente de una capa oculta.We indicate how to handle a large database consisting of nonlinear time series, applying different nonlinear modelling techniques to this kind of times series. Nowadays in the current references there is no explicit guide of how to manipulate data from nonlinear time series; however, there are approaches that can be taken account. To this end

  9. Predictive capability of average Stokes polarimetry for simulation of phase multilevel elements onto LCoS devices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez, Francisco J; Márquez, Andrés; Gallego, Sergi; Ortuño, Manuel; Francés, Jorge; Pascual, Inmaculada; Beléndez, Augusto

    2015-02-20

    Parallel-aligned (PA) liquid-crystal on silicon (LCoS) microdisplays are especially appealing in a wide range of spatial light modulation applications since they enable phase-only operation. Recently we proposed a novel polarimetric method, based on Stokes polarimetry, enabling the characterization of their linear retardance and the magnitude of their associated phase fluctuations or flicker, exhibited by many LCoS devices. In this work we apply the calibrated values obtained with this technique to show their capability to predict the performance of spatially varying phase multilevel elements displayed onto the PA-LCoS device. Specifically we address a series of multilevel phase blazed gratings. We analyze both their average diffraction efficiency ("static" analysis) and its associated time fluctuation ("dynamic" analysis). Two different electrical configuration files with different degrees of flicker are applied in order to evaluate the actual influence of flicker on the expected performance of the diffractive optical elements addressed. We obtain a good agreement between simulation and experiment, thus demonstrating the predictive capability of the calibration provided by the average Stokes polarimetric technique. Additionally, it is obtained that for electrical configurations with less than 30° amplitude for the flicker retardance, they may not influence the performance of the blazed gratings. In general, we demonstrate that the influence of flicker greatly diminishes when the number of quantization levels in the optical element increases.

  10. Online sequential condition prediction method of natural circulation systems based on EOS-ELM and phase space reconstruction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Hanying; Gao, Puzhen; Tan, Sichao; Tang, Jiguo; Yuan, Hongsheng

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: •An online condition prediction method for natural circulation systems in NPP was proposed based on EOS-ELM. •The proposed online prediction method was validated using experimental data. •The training speed of the proposed method is significantly fast. •The proposed method can achieve good accuracy in wide parameter range. -- Abstract: Natural circulation design is widely used in the passive safety systems of advanced nuclear power reactors. The irregular and chaotic flow oscillations are often observed in boiling natural circulation systems so it is difficult for operators to monitor and predict the condition of these systems. An online condition forecasting method for natural circulation system is proposed in this study as an assisting technique for plant operators. The proposed prediction approach was developed based on Ensemble of Online Sequential Extreme Learning Machine (EOS-ELM) and phase space reconstruction. Online Sequential Extreme Learning Machine (OS-ELM) is an online sequential learning neural network algorithm and EOS-ELM is the ensemble method of it. The proposed condition prediction method can be initiated by a small chunk of monitoring data and it can be updated by newly arrived data at very fast speed during the online prediction. Simulation experiments were conducted on the data of two natural circulation loops to validate the performance of the proposed method. The simulation results show that the proposed predication model can successfully recognize different types of flow oscillations and accurately forecast the trend of monitored plant variables. The influence of the number of hidden nodes and neural network inputs on prediction performance was studied and the proposed model can achieve good accuracy in a wide parameter range. Moreover, the comparison results show that the proposed condition prediction method has much faster online learning speed and better prediction accuracy than conventional neural network model.

  11. Balances de glaciares y clima en Bolivia y Perú: impacto de los eventos ENSO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    1995-01-01

    Full Text Available BILANS GLACIAIRES ET CLIMAT EN BOLIVIE ET AU PÉROU : IMPACT DES ÉVÉNEMENTS ENSO. À partir d’une reconstruction faite pour le glacier de Zongo (Cordillère Royale, Bolivie avec des données hydrologiques et de l’application du modèle linéaire (Lliboutry sur les données des glaciers Yanamarey et Uruashraju (Cordillère Blanche, Pérou, on a pu disposer de séries de 15-20 ans de bilans de masse. En analysant parallèlement les données recueillies aux stations météorologiques proches, on met en évidence le rôle des températures dans la détermination de ces bilans. La variabilité des températures dépend de façon étroite des phénomènes ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation : pendant ces épisodes, les températures maximales et minimales augmentent sensiblement, ce qui affecte le terme ablation du bilan de masse. On vérifie sur ces séries de 20 ans que toutes les années ENSO sont associées à des bilans négatifs. Pendant la plupart des épisodes ENSO se produit au sud du Pérou et en Bolivie une réduction des précipitations, ce qui contribue à accentuer l’effet ENSO sur les bilans. Ces événements ont une grande influence sur l’évolution actuelle des glaciers andins, caractérisée par un recul rapide. La reconstrucción del balance hidrológico a partir de datos hidrométricos del glaciar de Zongo (Cordillera Real de Bolivia, así como la aplicación del modelo lineal (Lliboutry sobre los datos de balance de los glaciares Yanamarey y Uruashraju (Cordillera Blanca del Perú, ofrecen la posibilidad de disponer de series de 15-20 años de balance de masa. Analizando paralelamente los datos recogidos en estaciones meteorológicas cercanas, se puede evidenciar el rol de las temperaturas en la determinación de estos balances. La variabilidad de las temperaturas depende de una manera estrecha de los eventos ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation: durante estos eventos, las temperaturas máximas y mínimas aumentan

  12. Predictions of Phase Separation in Three-Component Lipid Membranes by the MARTINI Force Field

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davis, Ryan S.; Sunil Kumar, P. B.; Sperotto, Maria Maddalena

    2013-01-01

    The phase behavior of the coarse-grained MARTINI model for three-component lipid bilayers composed of dipalmytoyl-phosphatidylcholine (DPPC), cholesterol (Chol), and an unsaturated phosphatidylcholine (PC) was systematically investigated by molecular dynamics simulations. The aim of this study...... is to understand which types of unsaturated PC induce the formation of thermodynamically stable coexisting phases when added to mixtures of DPPC and Chol and to unravel the mechanisms that drive phase separation in such three-component mixtures. Our simulations indicate that the currently used MARTINI force field...... PCs, such as dilinoleyl-phosphatidylcholine (DUPC) and diarachidonoyl-phosphatidylcholine (DAPC). Through systematic tweaking of the interactions between the hydrophobic groups of the PC molecules, we show that the appearance of phase separation in three-component lipid bilayers, as modeled through...

  13. Probabilistic Water Availability Prediction in the Rio Grande Basin using Large-scale Circulation Indices as Precursor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khedun, C. P.; Mishra, A. K.; Giardino, J. R.; Singh, V. P.

    2011-12-01

    Hydrometeorological conditions, and therefore water availability, is affected by large-scale circulation indices. In the Rio Grande, which is a transboundary basin shared between the United States and Mexico, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence local hydrological conditions. Different sub-regions of the basin exhibit varying degrees of correlation, but in general, an increase (decrease) in runoff during El Niños (La Niñas) is noted. Positive PDO enhances the effect of El Niño and dampens the negative effect of La Niña, and when it is in its neutral/transition phase, La Niña dominates climatic conditions and reduces water availability. Further, lags of up to 3 months have been found between ENSO and precipitation in the basin. We hypothesize that (1) a trivariate statistical relationship can be established between the two climate indices and water availability, and (2) the relationship can be used to predict water availability based on projected PDO and ENSO conditions. We use copula to establish the dependence between climate indices and water availability. Water availability is generated from Noah land surface model (LSM), forced with the North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 (NLDAS-2). The model is run within NASA GSFC's Land Information System. LSM generated runoff gives a more realistic picture of available surface water as it is not affected by anthropogenic changes, such as the construction of dams, diversions, and other land use land cover changes, which may obscure climatic influences. Marginals from climate indices and runoff are from different distribution families, thus conventional functional forms of multivariate frequency distributions cannot be employed. Copulas offer a viable alternative as marginals from different families can be combined into a joint distribution. Uncertainties in the statistical relationship can be determined and the statistical model can be used for

  14. ENSO Effect on East Asian Tropical Cyclone Landfall via Changes in Tracks and Genesis in a Statistical Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yonekura, Emmi; Hall, Timothy M.

    2014-01-01

    Improvements on a statistical tropical cyclone (TC) track model in the western North Pacific Ocean are described. The goal of the model is to study the effect of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on East Asian TC landfall. The model is based on the International Best-Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) database of TC observations for 1945-2007 and employs local regression of TC formation rates and track increments on the Nino-3.4 index and seasonally varying climate parameters. The main improvements are the inclusion of ENSO dependence in the track propagation and accounting for seasonality in both genesis and tracks. A comparison of simulations of the 1945-2007 period with observations concludes that the model updates improve the skill of this model in simulating TCs. Changes in TC genesis and tracks are analyzed separately and cumulatively in simulations of stationary extreme ENSO states. ENSO effects on regional (100-km scale) landfall are attributed to changes in genesis and tracks. The effect of ENSO on genesis is predominantly a shift in genesis location from the southeast in El Nino years to the northwest in La Nina years, resulting in higher landfall rates for the East Asian coast during La Nina. The effect of ENSO on track propagation varies seasonally and spatially. In the peak activity season (July-October), there are significant changes in mean tracks with ENSO. Landfall-rate changes from genesis- and track-ENSO effects in the Philippines cancel out, while coastal segments of Vietnam, China, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan show enhanced La Nina-year increases.

  15. The multidecadal variations of the interannual relationship between the East Asian summer monsoon and ENSO in a coupled model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Bo; Huang, Gang; Hu, Kaiming; Wu, Renguang; Gong, Hainan; Wang, Pengfei; Zhao, Guijie

    2017-10-01

    This study investigates the multidecadal variations of the interannual relationship between the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in 1000-year simulation of a coupled climate model. The interannual relationship between ENSO and EASM has experienced pronounced changes throughout the 1000-year simulation. During the periods with significant ENSO-EASM relationship, the ENSO-related circulation anomalies show a Pacific-Japan (PJ)-like pattern with significant wave-activity flux propagating from the tropics to the north in lower troposphere and from the mid-latitudes to the south in upper troposphere. The resultant ENSO-related precipitation anomalies are more (less) than normal over the East Asia (western North Pacific) in the decaying summers of El Niño events. In contrast, the circulation and precipitation anomalies are weak over East Asia-western North Pacific during the periods with weak ENSO-EASM relationship. Based on the energy conversion analysis, the related anomalies achieve barotropic and baroclinic energy from the mean flow during the periods with strong ENSO-EASM relationship. On the contrary, during the low-correlation periods, the energy conversion is too weak to form the link between the tropics and mid-latitudes. The main reason for the multidecadal variations of ENSO-EASM relationship is the amplitude discrepancy of SST anomalies over the Indo-western Pacific Ocean which, in turn, leads to the intensity difference of the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone (WPAC) and related climate anomalies.

  16. Analytic solution to verify code predictions of two-phase flow in a boiling water reactor core channel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, K.F.; Olson, C.A.

    1983-01-01

    One reliable method that can be used to verify the solution scheme of a computer code is to compare the code prediction to a simplified problem for which an analytic solution can be derived. An analytic solution for the axial pressure drop as a function of the flow was obtained for the simplified problem of homogeneous equilibrium two-phase flow in a vertical, heated channel with a cosine axial heat flux shape. This analytic solution was then used to verify the predictions of the CONDOR computer code, which is used to evaluate the thermal-hydraulic performance of boiling water reactors. The results show excellent agreement between the analytic solution and CONDOR prediction

  17. Prediction and Observation of Electron Instabilities and Phase Space Holes Concentrated in the Lunar Plasma Wake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutchinson, Ian H.; Malaspina, David M.

    2018-05-01

    Recent theory and numerical simulation predicts that the wake of the solar wind flow past the Moon should be the site of electrostatic instabilities that give rise to electron holes. These play an important role in the eventual merging of the wake with the background solar wind. Analysis of measurements from the ARTEMIS satellites, orbiting the Moon at distances from 1.2 to 11 RM, detects holes highly concentrated in the wake, in agreement with prediction. The theory also predicts that the hole flux density observed should be hollow, peaking away from the wake axis. Observation statistics qualitatively confirm this hollowness, lending extra supporting evidence for the identification of their generation mechanism.

  18. Relative Contributions of Mean-State Shifts and ENSO-Driven Variability to Precipitation Changes in a Warming Climate*

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bonfils, Céline J. W.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Phillips, Thomas J.; Marvel, Kate; Leung, L. Ruby; Doutriaux, Charles; Capotondi, Antonietta

    2015-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important driver of regional hydroclimate variability through far-reaching teleconnections. Most climate models project an increase in the frequency of extreme El Niño events under increased greenhouse-gas (GHG) forcing. However, it is unclear how other aspects of ENSO and ENSO-driven teleconnections will evolve in the future. Here, we identify in 20th century sea-surface temperature (SST) observations a time-invariant ENSO-like (ENSOL) pattern that is largely uncontaminated by GHG forcing. We use this pattern to investigate the future precipitation (P) response to ENSO-like SST anomalies. Models that better capture observed ENSOL characteristics produce P teleconnection patterns that are in better accord with observations and more stationary in the 21st century. We decompose the future P response to ENSOL into the sum of three terms: (1) the change in P mean state, (2) the historical P response to ENSOL, and (3) a future enhancement in the P response to ENSOL. In many regions, this last term can aggravate the P extremes associated with ENSO variability. This simple decomposition allows us to identify regions likely to experience ENSOL-induced P changes that are without precedent in the current climate.

  19. ENSO Simulation in CGCMs and the Associated Errors in Atmospheric Response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    AchutaRao, K.; Sperber, K.R.

    2000-01-01

    Tropical Pacific variability, and specifically the simulation of ENSO in coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (CGCMs) has previously been assessed in many studies (McCreary and Anderson[1991], Neelin et al.[1992], Mechoso et al.[1995], Latif et al.[2000], and Davey et al.[2000]). These studies have concentrated on SST variations in the tropical Pacific, and discussions of the atmospheric response have been limited to east-west movements of the convergence zone. In this paper we discuss the large-scale atmospheric response to simulated ENSO events. Control simulations from 17 global CGCMs from CMIP (Meehl et al.[2000]) are studied. The web site http:// www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip/modeldoc provides documentation of the configurations of the models

  20. High Order Wavelet-Based Multiresolution Technology for Airframe Noise Prediction, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — We propose to develop a novel, high-accuracy, high-fidelity, multiresolution (MRES), wavelet-based framework for efficient prediction of airframe noise sources and...

  1. Real-Time Noise Prediction of V/STOL Aircraft in Maneuvering Flight, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This proposal outlines a plan for enhancing and integrating new breakthrough technologies to provide accurate real-time noise prediction of V/STOL aircraft in...

  2. Innovative Development of Kernel-Based Reduced-Order Models for Predicting LCO Onset, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Reducing uncertainty in the prediction of limit cycle oscillations (LCO) and other nonlinear aeroservoelastic phenomena is critical to flight safety. To do so...

  3. Physics-based Modeling Tools for Life Prediction and Durability Assessment of Advanced Materials, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The technical objectives of this program are: (1) to develop a set of physics-based modeling tools to predict the initiation of hot corrosion and to address pit and...

  4. Integration of Fast Predictive Model and SLM Process Development Chamber, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This STTR project seeks to develop a fast predictive model for selective laser melting (SLM) processes and then integrate that model with an SLM chamber that allows...

  5. Predictions for the Majorana CP violation phases in the neutrino mixing matrix and neutrinoless double beta decay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girardi, I.; Petcov, S. T.; Titov, A. V.

    2016-10-01

    We obtain predictions for the Majorana phases α21 / 2 and α31 / 2 of the 3 × 3 unitary neutrino mixing matrix U = Ue† Uν, Ue and Uν being the 3 × 3 unitary matrices resulting from the diagonalisation of the charged lepton and neutrino Majorana mass matrices, respectively. We focus on forms of Ue and Uν permitting to express α21 / 2 and α31 / 2 in terms of the Dirac phase δ and the three neutrino mixing angles of the standard parametrisation of U, and the angles and the two Majorana-like phases ξ21 / 2 and ξ31 / 2 present, in general, in Uν. The concrete forms of Uν considered are fixed by, or associated with, symmetries (tri-bimaximal, bimaximal, etc.), so that the angles in Uν are fixed. For each of these forms and forms of Ue that allow to reproduce the measured values of the three neutrino mixing angles θ12, θ23 and θ13, we derive predictions for phase differences (α21 / 2 -ξ21 / 2), (α31 / 2 -ξ31 / 2), etc., which are completely determined by the values of the mixing angles. We show that the requirement of generalised CP invariance of the neutrino Majorana mass term implies ξ21 = 0 or π and ξ31 = 0 or π. For these values of ξ21 and ξ31 and the best fit values of θ12, θ23 and θ13, we present predictions for the effective Majorana mass in neutrinoless double beta decay for both neutrino mass spectra with normal and inverted ordering.

  6. Corporate social responsibility as a business strategy: Stora Enso-WWF partnership project

    OpenAIRE

    Tysiachniouk, M.S.

    2009-01-01

    The paper analyzes the strategic partnership between transnational corporation Stora-Enso and international nongovernmental organization NGO WWF as a business strategy that helps the company to adopt its business to the turbulent environment of the economy in transition. In this paper I draw from the theory of institutional sociology to explain complex interaction between transnational actors and actors in localities that jointly form a governance generating network in order to implement the ...

  7. Influence of Mean State Changes on the Structure of ENSO in a Tropical Coupled GCM.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Codron, Francis; Vintzileos, Augustin; Sadourny, Robert

    2001-03-01

    This study examines the response of the climate simulated by the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace tropical Pacific coupled general circulation model to two changes in parameterization: an improved coupling scheme at the coast, and the introduction of a saturation mixing ratio limiter in the water vapor advection scheme, which improves the rainfall distribution over and around orography. The main effect of these modifications is the suppression of spurious upwelling off the South American coast in Northern Hemisphere summer. Coupled feedbacks then extend this warming over the whole basin in an El Niño-like structure, with a maximum at the equator and in the eastern part of the basin. The mean precipitation pattern widens and moves equatorward as the trade winds weaken.This warmer mean state leads to a doubling of the standard deviation of interannual SST anomalies, and to a longer ENSO period. The structure of the ENSO cycle also shifts from westward propagation in the original simulation to a standing oscillation. The simulation of El Niño thus improves when compared to recent observed events. The study of ENSO spatial structure and lagged correlations shows that these changes of El Niño characteristics are caused by both the increase of amplitude and the modification of the spatial structure of the wind stress response to SST anomalies.These results show that both the mean state and variability of the tropical ocean can be very sensitive to biases or forcings, even geographically localized. They may also give some insight into the mechanisms responsible for the changes in ENSO characteristics due to decadal variability or climate change.

  8. Atmosphere-Ocean Variations in the Indo-Pacific Sector during ENSO Episodes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, Ngar-Cheung; Nath, Mary Jo

    2003-01-01

    The influences of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on air-sea interaction in the Indian-western Pacific (IWP) Oceans have been investigated using a general circulation model. Observed monthly sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the deep tropical eastern/central Pacific (DTEP) have been inserted in the lower boundary of this model through the 1950-99 period. At all maritime grid points outside of DTEP, the model atmosphere has been coupled with an oceanic mixed layer model with variable depth. Altogether 16 independent model runs have been conducted.Composite analysis of selected ENSO episodes illustrates that the prescribed SST anomalies in DTEP affect the surface atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns in IWP through displacements of the near-equatorial Walker circulation and generation of Rossby wave modes in the subtropics. Such atmospheric responses modulate the surface fluxes as well as the oceanic mixed layer depth, and thereby establish a well-defined SST anomaly pattern in the IWP sector several months after the peak in ENSO forcing in DTEP. In most parts of the IWP region, the net SST tendency induced by atmospheric changes has the same polarity as the local composite SST anomaly, thus indicating that the atmospheric forcing acts to reinforce the underlying SST signal.By analyzing the output from a suite of auxiliary experiments, it is demonstrated that the SST perturbations in IWP (which are primarily generated by ENSO-related atmospheric changes) can, in turn, exert notable influences on the atmospheric conditions over that region. This feedback mechanism also plays an important role in the eastward migration of the subtropical anticyclones over the western Pacific in both hemispheres.

  9. Impacts of ENSO on air-sea oxygen exchange: Observations and mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eddebbar, Yassir A.; Long, Matthew C.; Resplandy, Laure; Rödenbeck, Christian; Rodgers, Keith B.; Manizza, Manfredi; Keeling, Ralph F.

    2017-05-01

    Models and observations of atmospheric potential oxygen (APO ≃ O2 + 1.1 * CO2) are used to investigate the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on air-sea O2 exchange. An atmospheric transport inversion of APO data from the Scripps flask network shows significant interannual variability in tropical APO fluxes that is positively correlated with the Niño3.4 index, indicating anomalous ocean outgassing of APO during El Niño. Hindcast simulations of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace model show similar APO sensitivity to ENSO, differing from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model, which shows an opposite APO response. In all models, O2 accounts for most APO flux variations. Detailed analysis in CESM shows that the O2 response is driven primarily by ENSO modulation of the source and rate of equatorial upwelling, which moderates the intensity of O2 uptake due to vertical transport of low-O2 waters. These upwelling changes dominate over counteracting effects of biological productivity and thermally driven O2 exchange. During El Niño, shallower and weaker upwelling leads to anomalous O2 outgassing, whereas deeper and intensified upwelling during La Niña drives enhanced O2 uptake. This response is strongly localized along the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, leading to an equatorial zonal dipole in atmospheric anomalies of APO. This dipole is further intensified by ENSO-related changes in winds, reconciling apparently conflicting APO observations in the tropical Pacific. These findings suggest a substantial and complex response of the oceanic O2 cycle to climate variability that is significantly (>50%) underestimated in magnitude by ocean models.

  10. Gas and grain chemical composition in cold cores as predicted by the Nautilus three-phase model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruaud, Maxime; Wakelam, Valentine; Hersant, Franck

    2016-07-01

    We present an extended version of the two-phase gas-grain code NAUTILUS to the three-phase modelling of gas and grain chemistry of cold cores. In this model, both the mantle and the surface are considered as chemically active. We also take into account the competition among reaction, diffusion and evaporation. The model predictions are confronted to ice observations in the envelope of low-mass and massive young stellar objects as well as towards background stars. Modelled gas-phase abundances are compared to species observed towards TMC-1 (CP) and L134N dark clouds. We find that our model successfully reproduces the observed ice species. It is found that the reaction-diffusion competition strongly enhances reactions with barriers and more specifically reactions with H2, which is abundant on grains. This finding highlights the importance having a good approach to determine the abundance of H2 on grains. Consequently, it is found that the major N-bearing species on grains go from NH3 to N2 and HCN when the reaction-diffusion competition is taken into account. In the gas phase and before a few 105 yr, we find that the three-phase model does not have a strong impact on the observed species compared to the two-phase model. After this time, the computed abundances dramatically decrease due to the strong accretion on dust, which is not counterbalanced by the desorption less efficient than in the two-phase model. This strongly constrains the chemical age of cold cores to be of the order of few 105 yr.

  11. An Analysis of the Energetics of Tropical and Extra-Tropical Regions for Warm ENSO Composite Episodes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zayra Christine Sátyro

    Full Text Available Abstract This study focuses on the quantification and evaluation of the effects of ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation warm phases, using a composite of five intense El Niño episodes between 1979 – 2011 on the Energetic Lorenz Cycle for four distinct regions around the globe: 80° S – 5° N (region 1, 50° S – 5° N (region 2, 30° S – 5° N (region 3, and 30° S – 30° N (region 4, using Data from NCEP reanalysis-II. Briefly, the results showed that zonal terms of potential energy and kinetic energy were intensified, except for region 1, where zonal kinetic energy weakened. Through the analysis of the period in which higher energy production is observed, a strong communication between the available zonal potential and the zonal kinetic energy reservoirs can be identified. This communication weakened the modes linked to eddies of potential energy and kinetic energy, as well as in the other two baroclinic conversions terms. Furthermore, the results indicate that for all the regions, the system itself works to regain its stable condition.

  12. The closed spiracle phase of discontinuous gas exchange predicts diving duration in the grasshopper Paracinema tricolor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gudowska, Agnieszka; Boardman, Leigh; Terblanche, John S

    2016-08-15

    The discontinuous gas exchange (DGE) pattern of respiration shown by many arthropods includes periods of spiracle closure (C-phase) and is largely thought to serve as a physiological adaptation to restrict water loss in terrestrial environments. One major challenge to this hypothesis is to explain the presence of DGE in insects in moist environments. Here, we show a novel ecological correlate of the C-phase, namely, diving behaviour in mesic Paracinema tricolor grasshoppers. Notably, maximal dive duration is positively correlated with C-phase length, even after accounting for mass scaling and absolute metabolic rate. Here, we propose that an additional advantage of DGE may be conferred by allowing the tracheal system to act as a sealed underwater oxygen reservoir. Spiracle closure may facilitate underwater submersion, which, in turn, may contribute to predator avoidance, the survival of accidental immersion or periodic flooding and the exploitation of underwater resources. © 2016. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

  13. Mechanism of ENSO influence on the South Asian monsoon rainfall in global model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joshi, Sneh; Kar, Sarat C.

    2018-02-01

    Coupled ocean atmosphere global climate models are increasingly being used for seasonal scale simulation of the South Asian monsoon. In these models, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) evolve as coupled air-sea interaction process. However, sensitivity experiments with various SST forcing can only be done in an atmosphere-only model. In this study, the Global Forecast System (GFS) model at T126 horizontal resolution has been used to examine the mechanism of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing on the monsoon circulation and rainfall. The model has been integrated (ensemble) with observed, climatological and ENSO SST forcing to document the mechanism on how the South Asian monsoon responds to basin-wide SST variations in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The model simulations indicate that the internal variability gets modulated by the SSTs with warming in the Pacific enhancing the ensemble spread over the monsoon region as compared to cooling conditions. Anomalous easterly wind anomalies cover the Indian region both at 850 and 200 hPa levels during El Niño years. The locations and intensity of Walker and Hadley circulations are altered due to ENSO SST forcing. These lead to reduction of monsoon rainfall over most parts of India during El Niño events compared to La Niña conditions. However, internally generated variability is a major source of uncertainty in the model-simulated climate.

  14. Do our reconstructions of ENSO have too much low-frequency variability?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loope, G. R.; Overpeck, J. T.

    2017-12-01

    Reconstructing the spectrum of Pacific SST variability has proven to be difficult both because of complications with proxy systems such as tree rings and the relatively small number of records from the tropical Pacific. We show that the small number of long coral δ18O and Sr/Ca records has caused a bias towards having too much low-frequency variability in PCR, CPS, and RegEM reconstructions of Pacific variability. This occurs because the individual coral records used in the reconstructions have redder spectra than the shared signal (e.g. ENSO). This causes some of the unshared, low-frequency signal from local climate, salinity and possibly coral biology to bleed into the reconstruction. With enough chronologies in a reconstruction, this unshared noise cancels out but the problem is exacerbated in our longest reconstructions where fewer records are available. Coral proxies tend to have more low-frequency variability than SST observations so this problem is smaller but can still be seen in pseudoproxy experiments using observations and reanalysis data. The identification of this low-frequency bias in coral reconstructions helps bring the spectra of ENSO reconstructions back into line with both models and observations. Although our analysis is mostly constrained to the 20th century due to lack of sufficient data, we expect that as more long chronologies are developed, the low-frequency signal in ENSO reconstructions will be greatly reduced.

  15. The Influence of ENSO to the Rainfall Variability in North Sumatra Province

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irwandi, H.; Pusparini, N.; Ariantono, J. Y.; Kurniawan, R.; Tari, C. A.; Sudrajat, A.

    2018-04-01

    The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global phenomenon that affects the variability of rainfall in North Sumatra. The influence of ENSO will be different for each region. This review will analyse the influence of ENSO activity on seasonal and annual rainfall variability. In this research, North Sumatra Province will be divided into 4 (four) regions based on topographical conditions, such as: East Coast (EC), East Slope (ES), Mountains (MT), and West Coast (WC). The method used was statistical and descriptive analysis. Data used in this research were rainfall data from 15 stations / climate observation posts which spread in North Sumatera region and also anomaly data of Nino 3.4 region from period 1981-2016. The results showed that the active El Niño had an effect on the decreasing the rainfall during the period of DJF, JJA and SON in East Coast, East Slope, and Mountains with the decreasing of average percentage of annual rainfall up to 7%. On the contrary, the active La Nina had an effect on the addition of rainfall during the period DJF and JJA in the East Coast and Mountains with the increasing of average percentage of annual rainfall up to 6%.

  16. Mesoscale Convective Complexes (MCCs) over the Indonesian Maritime Continent during the ENSO events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trismidianto; Satyawardhana, H.

    2018-05-01

    This study analyzed the mesoscale convective complexes (MCCs) over the Indonesian Maritime Continent (IMC) during the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events for the the15-year period from 2001 to 2015. The MCCs identified by infrared satellite imagery that obtained from the Himawari generation satellite data. This study has reported that the frequencies of the MCC occurrences at the El Niño and La Niña were higher than that of neutral conditions during DJF. Peak of MCC occurrences during DJF at La Niña and neutral condition is in February, while El Niño is in January. ENSO strongly affects the occurrence of MCC during the DJF season. The existences of the MCC were also accompanied by increased rainfall intensity at the locations of the MCC occurrences for all ENSO events. During JJA seasons, the MCC occurrences are always found during neutral conditions, El Niño and La Niña in Indian Ocean. MCC occurring during the JJA season on El Niño and neutral conditions averaged much longer than during the DJF season. In contrast, MCCs occurring in La Niña conditions during the JJA season are more rapidly extinct than during the DJF. It indicates that the influence of MCC during La Niña during the DJF season is stronger than during the JJA season.

  17. Analysis of the Effects of ENSO and Atmospheric Rivers on Precipitation in Los Angeles County

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santacruz, A.; Lamb, K.

    2017-12-01

    The Winter 2016-2017 season in California was marked by substantial amounts of precipitation; this resulted in critically-low reservoirs filling up and the removal of most of California from drought status. The year prior was characterized by one of the strongest El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, though it did not produce nearly enough precipitation as the 2016-2017 season. The major contributors to the increased rainfall during the 2016-2017 season were climactic phenomenon known as atmospheric rivers (ARs), which transport water vapor through the atmosphere in narrow bands, and are known to produce extreme rain events. Determining the exact timing, landfall areas, and total precipitation amounts of ARs is currently of great interest; a recent study showed that extreme weather events are likely to increase in California in the coming years, which motivates research into how phenomenon such as ENSO and ARs play a role. Using long-term daily rain gauge data provided by the Los Angeles County Department of Public Works, we compute the precipitation volume and storm count for various locations in Los Angeles County and identify anomalies. These data will then be compared with the occurrence and intensity of AR and ENSO events by using NOAA's NOI and ESRL AR data. The results can be used to provide a better grasp of extreme climactic patterns and their effects on the amount of precipitation in the region.

  18. Impact of atmospheric model resolution on simulation of ENSO feedback processes: a coupled model study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hua, Lijuan; Chen, Lin; Rong, Xinyao; Su, Jingzhi; Wang, Lu; Li, Tim; Yu, Yongqiang

    2018-03-01

    This study examines El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related air-sea feedback processes in a coupled general circulation model (CGCM) to gauge model errors and pin down their sources in ENSO simulation. Three horizontal resolutions of the atmospheric component (T42, T63 and T106) of the CGCM are used to investigate how the simulated ENSO behaviors are affected by the resolution. We find that air-sea feedback processes in the three experiments mainly differ in terms of both thermodynamic and dynamic feedbacks. We also find that these processes are simulated more reasonably in the highest resolution version than in the other two lower resolution versions. The difference in the thermodynamic feedback arises from the difference in the shortwave-radiation (SW) feedback. Due to the severely (mildly) excessive cold tongue in the lower (higher) resolution version, the SW feedback is severely (mildly) underestimated. The main difference in the dynamic feedback processes lies in the thermocline feedback and the zonal-advection feedback, both of which are caused by the difference in the anomalous thermocline response to anomalous zonal wind stress. The difference in representing the anomalous thermocline response is attributed to the difference in meridional structure of zonal wind stress anomaly in the three simulations, which is linked to meridional resolution.

  19. High-pressure phases of S, Se, and P hydrides and their superconducting properties. Predictions from ab-initio theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gross, E.K.U. [Max Planck Institute of Microstructure Physics, Halle (Saale) (Germany)

    2016-07-01

    The quest for novel high-temperature superconductors in the family of hydrogen-rich compounds has recently been crowned with the experimental discovery of a record critical temperature of 190 K in a hydrogen-sulfur compound at 200 GPa. In the present contribution, we investigate the phase diagram of the H-S system, comparing the stability of H{sub n}S (n = 1,2,3,4) by means of the minima hopping method for structure prediction. Our extensive crystal structure search confirms the H{sub 3}S stoichiometry as the most stable configuration at high pressure. Superconducting properties are calculated using the fully ab-initio parameter-free approach of density functional theory for superconductors. We find a T{sub c} of 180 K at 200 GPa, in excellent agreement with experiment. We also show that Se-H has a phase diagram similar to its sulfur counterpart. We predict H{sub 3}Se to be superconducting at temperatures higher than 120 K at 100 GPa. We furthermore investigate the phase diagram of PH{sub n} (n = 1,2,3,4,5,6). The results of our crystal-structure search do not support the existence of thermodynamically stable PH{sub n} compounds, which exhibit a tendency for elemental decomposition at high pressure. Although the lowest energy phases of PH{sub n=1,2,3} display T{sub c} values comparable to experiment, it remains uncertain if the measured values of T{sub c} can be fully attributed to a phase-pure compound of PH{sub n}.

  20. Thermal analysis and prediction of phase equilibria in ternary Pb-Zn-Ag system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Živković D.

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Ternary Pb-Zn-Ag system is typical for some physicochemical processes going on in refining phase in the extractive metallurgy of lead. Therefore, investigation of mentioned system is important from both theoretical and practical research of the phenomena occurring during the lead desilverizing process. The results of experimental investigation using differential thermal analysis (DTA and thermodynamic calculation of phase equilibria in Pb-Zn-Ag system according to CALPHAD method, in the sections with Zn:Ag mass ratio equal to 90:10, 70:30 and 50:50, are presented in this paper.

  1. Predicting phase shift of elastic waves in pipes due to fluid flow and imperfections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Jon Juel; Dahl, Jonas; Fuglede, Niels

    2009-01-01

    . This is relevant for understanding wave propagation in elastic media in general, and for the design and trouble-shooting of phase-shift measuring devices such as Coriolis mass flowmeters in particular. A multiple time scaling perturbation analysis is employed for a simple model of a fluid-conveying pipe......Flexural vibrations of a fluid-conveying pipe is investigated, with special consideration to the spatial shift in phase caused by fluid flow and various imperfections, e.g., non-ideal supports, non-uniform stiffness or mass, non-proportional damping, weak nonlinearity, and flow pulsation...

  2. Multi-target QSPR modeling for simultaneous prediction of multiple gas-phase kinetic rate constants of diverse chemicals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basant, Nikita; Gupta, Shikha

    2018-03-01

    The reactions of molecular ozone (O3), hydroxyl (•OH) and nitrate (NO3) radicals are among the major pathways of removal of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the atmospheric environment. The gas-phase kinetic rate constants (kO3, kOH, kNO3) are thus, important in assessing the ultimate fate and exposure risk of atmospheric VOCs. Experimental data for rate constants are not available for many emerging VOCs and the computational methods reported so far address a single target modeling only. In this study, we have developed a multi-target (mt) QSPR model for simultaneous prediction of multiple kinetic rate constants (kO3, kOH, kNO3) of diverse organic chemicals considering an experimental data set of VOCs for which values of all the three rate constants are available. The mt-QSPR model identified and used five descriptors related to the molecular size, degree of saturation and electron density in a molecule, which were mechanistically interpretable. These descriptors successfully predicted three rate constants simultaneously. The model yielded high correlations (R2 = 0.874-0.924) between the experimental and simultaneously predicted endpoint rate constant (kO3, kOH, kNO3) values in test arrays for all the three systems. The model also passed all the stringent statistical validation tests for external predictivity. The proposed multi-target QSPR model can be successfully used for predicting reactivity of new VOCs simultaneously for their exposure risk assessment.

  3. Pengaruh ENSO (El Niño and Southern Oscillation terhadap transpor massa air laut di Selat Malaka

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstrak. Penelitian ini mengkaji pengaruh ENSO (El Niño and Southern Oscillation di Selat Malaka dengan memakai indek osilasi selatan Samudera Pasifik dalam menentukan kondisi Normal, El Niño dan La Nina sebagai analisis transpor massa air laut, elevasi muka laut dan densitas laut. Metode penelitian menggunakan persamaan Navier-Stokes dengan gaya pembangkit pasang surut, angin dari National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP Tahun 1980-2007, Salinitas (Levitus dan Boyer, 1994a dan Temperatur (Levitus dan Boyer, 1994b. Persamaan gerak air laut tersebut dimodelkan dengan model Hamburg Shelf Ocean Model (HAMSOM. Hasil-hasil menunjukkan bahwa transpor di bagian barat laut Selat Malaka pergerakannya melemah dan transpor di bagian tenggara pergerakannya menguat dibandingkan pada kondisi tahun Normal dan La Nina. Sedangkan elevasi muka air di Selat Malaka pada kondisi tahun El Niño lebih rendah dibandingkan pada kondisi Normal dan La Nina. Selanjutnya densitas permukaan laut di Selat Malaka pada kondisi tahun Normal, El Niño dan La Nina berkisar 18,5 s/d 20,5 kg/m3. Densitas laut lapisan 30-50 m di Selat Malaka pada kondisi tahun Normal, El Niño dan La Nina berkisar 19 s/d 21 kg/m3. Densitas permukaan laut dan densitas laut kedalaman 30-50 m di bagian tenggara Selat Malaka pada kondisi El Niño lebih besar dibandingkan pada tahun Normal maupun tahun La Nina.

  4. Thermal analysis and prediction of phase equilibria in ternary Pb-Zn-Ag System

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Živković, D.; Minić, D.; Manasijević, D.; Šesták, Jaroslav; Živković, Ž.

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 47, č. 1 (2011), 23-30 ISSN 1450-5339 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10100521 Keywords : Pb-Zn-Ag system * thermal analysis * phase equilibrium Subject RIV: BM - Solid Matter Physics ; Magnetism Impact factor: 1.317, year: 2011

  5. Au-Ni nanoparticles: Phase diagram prediction, synthesis, characterization, and thermal stability

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sopoušek, J.; Kryštofová, A.; Premovic, M.; Zobač, O.; Postlerová, S.; Brož, P.; Buršík, Jiří

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 58, SEP (2017), s. 25-33 ISSN 0364-5916 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA17-12844S; GA ČR(CZ) GA17-15405S Institutional support: RVO:68081723 Keywords : nanoalloy * CALPHAD * phase diagram Subject RIV: BJ - Thermodynamics OBOR OECD: Thermodynamics Impact factor: 1.600, year: 2016

  6. Application of ab initio electronic structure calculations for prediction of phase equilibria in superaustenitic steels

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Vřešťál, J.; Kroupa, Aleš; Šob, Mojmír

    2006-01-01

    Roč. 38, č. 11 (2006), s. 298-302 ISSN 0927-0256 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA106/03/1354; GA AV ČR(CZ) IBS2041105 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20410507 Keywords : electronic structure * Phase diagrams * Steel Subject RIV: BJ - Thermodynamics Impact factor: 1.104, year: 2006

  7. Predicted stability, structures, and magnetism of 3d transition metal nitrides: the M4N phases

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fang, C.M.; Koster, R.S.; Li, W.F.; van Huis, M.A.

    2014-01-01

    The 3d transition metal nitrides M4N (Sc4N, Ti4N, V4N, Cr4N, Mn4N, Fe4N, Co4N, Ni4N, and Cu4N) have unique phase relationships, crystal structures, and electronic and magnetic properties. Here we present a systematic density functional theory (DFT) study on these transition metal nitrides, assessing

  8. Two-phased DEA-MLA approach for predicting efficiency of NBA players

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radovanović Sandro

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In sports, a calculation of efficiency is considered to be one of the most challenging tasks. In this paper, DEA is used to evaluate an efficiency of the NBA players, based on multiple inputs and multiple outputs. The efficiency is evaluated for 26 NBA players at the guard position based on existing data. However, if we want to generate the efficiency for a new player, we would have to re-conduct the DEA analysis. Therefore, to predict the efficiency of a new player, machine learning algorithms are applied. The DEA results are incorporated as an input for the learning algorithms, defining thereby an efficiency frontier function form with high reliability. In this paper, linear regression, neural network, and support vector machines are used to predict an efficiency frontier. The results have shown that neural networks can predict the efficiency with an error less than 1%, and the linear regression with an error less than 2%.

  9. Analyses and predictions of the thermodynamic properties and phase diagrams of silicate systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blander, M. (Argonne National Lab., IL (United States)); Pelton, A.; Eriksson, G. (Ecole Polytechnique, Montreal, PQ (Canada). Dept. of Metallurgy and Materials Engineering)

    1992-01-01

    Molten silicates are ordered solutions which can not be well represented by the usual polynomial representation of deviations from ideal solution behavior (i.e. excess free energies of mixing). An adaptation of quasichemical theory which is capable of describing the properties of ordered solutions represents the measured properties of binary silicates over broad ranges of composition and temperature. For simple silicates such as the MgO-FeO-SiO{sub 2} ternary system, in which silica is the only acid component, a combining rule generally leads to good predictions of ternary solutions from those of the binaries. In basic solutions, these predictions are consistent with those of the conformal ionic solution theory. Our results indicate that our approach could provide a potentially powerful tool for representing and predicting the properties of multicomponent molten silicates.

  10. Analyses and predictions of the thermodynamic properties and phase diagrams of silicate systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blander, M. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States); Pelton, A.; Eriksson, G. [Ecole Polytechnique, Montreal, PQ (Canada). Dept. of Metallurgy and Materials Engineering

    1992-07-01

    Molten silicates are ordered solutions which can not be well represented by the usual polynomial representation of deviations from ideal solution behavior (i.e. excess free energies of mixing). An adaptation of quasichemical theory which is capable of describing the properties of ordered solutions represents the measured properties of binary silicates over broad ranges of composition and temperature. For simple silicates such as the MgO-FeO-SiO{sub 2} ternary system, in which silica is the only acid component, a combining rule generally leads to good predictions of ternary solutions from those of the binaries. In basic solutions, these predictions are consistent with those of the conformal ionic solution theory. Our results indicate that our approach could provide a potentially powerful tool for representing and predicting the properties of multicomponent molten silicates.

  11. Predicting hypothetical willingness to participate (WTP) in a future phase III HIV vaccine trial among high-risk adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giocos, Georgina; Kagee, Ashraf; Swartz, Leslie

    2008-11-01

    The present study sought to determine whether the Theory of Planned Behaviour predicted stated hypothetical willingness to participate (WTP) in future Phase III HIV vaccine trials among South African adolescents. Hierarchical logistic regression analyses showed that The Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) significantly predicted WTP. Of all the predictors, Subjective norms significantly predicted WTP (OR = 1.19, 95% C.I. = 1.06-1.34). A stepwise logistic regression analysis revealed that Subjective Norms (OR = 1.19, 95% C.I. = 1.07-1.34) and Attitude towards participation in an HIV vaccine trial (OR = 1.32, 95% C.I. = 1.00-1.74) were significant predictors of WTP. The addition of Knowledge of HIV vaccines and HIV vaccine trials, Perceived self-risk of HIV infection, Health-promoting behaviours and Attitudes towards HIV/AIDS yielded non-significant results. These findings provide support for the Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) and suggest that psychosocial factors may play an important role in WTP in Phase III HIV vaccine trials among adolescents.

  12. Future changes in rainfall associated with ENSO, IOD and changes in the mean state over Eastern Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Endris, Hussen Seid; Lennard, Christopher; Hewitson, Bruce; Dosio, Alessandro; Nikulin, Grigory; Artan, Guleid A.

    2018-05-01

    This study examines the projected changes in the characteristics of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in terms of mean state, intensity and frequency, and associated rainfall anomalies over eastern Africa. Two regional climate models driven by the same four global climate models (GCMs) and the corresponding GCM simulations are used to investigate projected changes in teleconnection patterns and East African rainfall. The period 1976-2005 is taken as the reference for present climate and the far-future climate (2070-2099) under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) is analyzed for projected change. Analyses of projections based on GCMs indicate an El Niño-like (positive IOD-like) warming pattern over the tropical Pacific (Indian) Ocean. However, large uncertainties remain in the projected future changes in ENSO/IOD frequency and intensity with some GCMs show increase of ENSO/IOD frequency and intensity, and others a decrease or no/small change. Projected changes in mean rainfall over eastern Africa based on the GCM and RCM data indicate a decrease in rainfall over most parts of the region during JJAS and MAM seasons, and an increase in rainfall over equatorial and southern part of the region during OND, with the greatest changes in equatorial region. During ENSO and IOD years, important changes in the strength of the teleconnections are found. During JJAS, when ENSO is an important driver of rainfall variability over the region, both GCM and RCM projections show an enhanced La Niña-related rainfall anomaly compared to the present period. Although the long rains (MAM) have little association with ENSO in the reference period, both GCMs and RCMs project stronger ENSO teleconnections in the future. On the other hand, during the short rains (OND), a dipole future change in rainfall teleconnection associated with ENSO and IOD is found, with a stronger ENSO/IOD related rainfall anomaly over the eastern part of the domain

  13. Ground-State Gas-Phase Structures of Inorganic Molecules Predicted by Density Functional Theory Methods

    KAUST Repository

    Minenkov, Yury; Cavallo, Luigi

    2017-01-01

    -GGA approximations with B3PW91, APF, TPSSh, mPW1PW91, PBE0, mPW1PBE, B972, and B98 functionals, resulting in lowest errors. We recommend using these methods to predict accurate three-dimensional structures of inorganic molecules when intramolecular dispersion

  14. Non-isothermal kinetics model to predict accurate phase transformation and hardness of 22MnB5 boron steel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bok, H.-H.; Kim, S.N.; Suh, D.W. [Graduate Institute of Ferrous Technology, POSTECH, San 31, Hyoja-dong, Nam-gu, Pohang, Gyeongsangbuk-do (Korea, Republic of); Barlat, F., E-mail: f.barlat@postech.ac.kr [Graduate Institute of Ferrous Technology, POSTECH, San 31, Hyoja-dong, Nam-gu, Pohang, Gyeongsangbuk-do (Korea, Republic of); Lee, M.-G., E-mail: myounglee@korea.ac.kr [Department of Materials Science and Engineering, Korea University, Anam-dong, Seongbuk-gu, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-02-25

    A non-isothermal phase transformation kinetics model obtained by modifying the well-known JMAK approach is proposed for application to a low carbon boron steel (22MnB5) sheet. In the modified kinetics model, the parameters are functions of both temperature and cooling rate, and can be identified by a numerical optimization method. Moreover, in this approach the transformation start and finish temperatures are variable instead of the constants that depend on chemical composition. These variable reference temperatures are determined from the measured CCT diagram using dilatation experiments. The kinetics model developed in this work captures the complex transformation behavior of the boron steel sheet sample accurately. In particular, the predicted hardness and phase fractions in the specimens subjected to a wide range of cooling rates were validated by experiments.

  15. Analytical predictions for vibration phase shifts along fluid-conveying pipes due to Coriolis forces and imperfections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Jon Juel; Dahl, Jonas

    2010-01-01

    -shift measuring devices such as Coriolis mass flowmeters in particular. Small imperfections related to elastic and dissipative support conditions are specifically addressed, but the suggested approach is readily applicable to other kinds of imperfection, e.g. non-uniform stiffness or mass, non......-proportional damping, weak nonlinearity, and flow pulsation. A multiple time scaling perturbation analysis is employed for a simple model of an imperfect fluid-conveying pipe. This leads to simple analytical expressions for the approximate prediction of phase shift, providing direct insight into which imperfections...... the symmetric part of damping as well as non-uniformity in mass or stiffness do not affect phase shift. The validity of such hypotheses can be tested using detailed fluid-structure interaction computer models or laboratory experiments....

  16. Data supporting the prediction of the properties of eutectic organic phase change materials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samer Kahwaji

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The data presented in this article include the molar masses, melting temperatures, latent heats of fusion and temperature-dependent heat capacities of fifteen fatty acid phase change materials (PCMs. The data are used in conjunction with the thermodynamic models discussed in Kahwaji and White (2018 [1] to develop a computational tool that calculates the eutectic compositions and thermal properties of eutectic mixtures of PCMs. The computational tool is part of this article and consists of a Microsoft Excel® file available in Mendeley Data repository [2]. A description of the computational tool along with the properties of nearly 100 binary mixtures of fatty acid PCMs calculated using this tool are also included in the present article. The Excel® file is designed such that it can be easily modified or expanded by users to calculate the properties of eutectic mixtures of other classes of PCMs. Keywords: Phase change materials, PCM, Eutectic, Thermal properties, Thermal energy storage

  17. High-temperature superconducting phase of HBr under pressure predicted by first-principles calculations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Qinyan; Lu, Pengchao; Xia, Kang; Sun, Jian; Xing, Dingyu

    2017-08-01

    The high pressure phases of HBr are explored with an ab initio crystal structure search. By taking into account the contribution of zero-point energy (ZPE), we find that the P 4 /n m m phase of HBr is thermodynamically stable in the pressure range from 150 to 200 GPa. The superconducting critical temperature (Tc) of P 4 /n m m HBr is evaluated to be around 73 K at 170 GPa, which is the highest record so far among binary halogen hydrides. Its Tc can be further raised to around 95K under 170 GPa if half of the bromine atoms in the P 4 /n m m HBr are substituted by the lighter chlorine atoms. Our study shows that, in addition to lower mass, higher coordination number, shorter bonds, and more highly symmetric environment for the hydrogen atoms are important factors to enhance the superconductivity in hydrides.

  18. Correlation and Prediction of Thermal Properties and Phase Behaviour for a Class of Aqueous Electrolyte Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Kaj; Rasmussen, Peter; Gani, Rafiqul

    1996-01-01

    An extended UNIQUAC model is used to describe phase behaviour (VLE, SLE) and thermal properties (heat of mixing, heat capacity) for aqueous solutions containing ions like (Na+, K+, H+) (Cl-, NO3-, SO42-, OH-, CO3-). A linear temperature dependence of the binary interaction parameters allows good...... agreement with experimental data in the temperature range 0-110 degrees C. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd...

  19. Combined effect of MJO, ENSO and IOD on the intraseasonal variability of northeast monsoon rainfall over south peninsular India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sreekala, P. P.; Rao, S. Vijaya Bhaskara; Rajeevan, K.; Arunachalam, M. S.

    2018-02-01

    The present study has examined the combined effect of MJO, ENSO and IOD on the intraseasonal and interannual variability of northeast monsoon rainfall over south peninsular India. The study has revealed that the intraseasonal variation of daily rainfall over south peninsular India during NEM season is associated with various phases of eastward propagating MJO life cycle. Positive rainfall anomaly over south peninsular India and surrounding Indian Ocean (IO) is observed during the strong MJO phases 2, 3 and 4; and negative rainfall anomaly during the strong MJO phases 5,6,7,8 and 1. Above normal (below normal) convection over south peninsular India and suppressed convection over east Indian and West Pacific Ocean, high pressure (low pressure) anomaly over West Pacific Ocean, Positive (negative) SST anomalies over equatorial East and Central Pacific Ocean and easterly wind anomaly (westerly anomaly) over equatorial Indian Ocean are the observed features during the first three MJO (5, 6, 7) phases and all these features are observed in the excess (drought) NEMR composite. This suggests that a similar mode of physical mechanism is responsible for the intraseasonal and interannual variability of northeast monsoon rainfall. The number of days during the first three phases (last four phases) of MJO, where the enhanced convection and positive rainfall anomaly is over Indian Ocean (East Indian ocean and West Pacific Ocean), is more (less) during El Nino and IOD years and less during La Nina and NIOD years and vice versa. The observed excess (deficit) rainfall anomaly over west IO and south peninsular India and deficit (excess) rainfall anomaly over east IO including Bay of Bengal and West Pacific Ocean suggest that the more (less) number of first three phases during El Nino and IOD (La Nina and Negative IOD) is due to the interaction between eastward moving MJO and strong easterlies over equatorial IO present during El Nino and IOD years. This interaction would inhibit the

  20. Thermodynamic analysis of fuels in gas phase: ethanol, gasoline and ethanol - gasoline predicted by DFT method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neto, A F G; Lopes, F S; Carvalho, E V; Huda, M N; Neto, A M J C; Machado, N T

    2015-10-01

    This paper presents a theoretical study using density functional theory to calculate thermodynamics properties of major molecules compounds at gas phase of fuels like gasoline, ethanol, and gasoline-ethanol mixture in thermal equilibrium on temperature range up to 1500 K. We simulated a composition of gasoline mixture with ethanol for a thorough study of thermal energy, enthalpy, Gibbs free energy, entropy, heat capacity at constant pressure with respect to temperature in order to study the influence caused by ethanol as an additive to gasoline. We used semi-empirical computational methods as well in order to know the efficiency of other methods to simulate fuels through this methodology. In addition, the ethanol influence through the changes in percentage fractions of chemical energy released in combustion reaction and the variations on thermal properties for autoignition temperatures of fuels was analyzed. We verified how ethanol reduces the chemical energy released by gasoline combustion and how at low temperatures the gas phase fuels in thermal equilibrium have similar thermodynamic behavior. Theoretical results were compared with experimental data, when available, and showed agreement. Graphical Abstract Thermodynamic analysis of fuels in gas phase.

  1. Predicted Geology of the Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley Phase II Drilling Initiative

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley (PM-OV) Phase II drilling will occur within an area that encompasses approximately 117 square kilometers (45 square miles) near the center of the Phase I PM-OV hydrostratigraphic framework model area. The majority of the investigation area lies within dissected volcanic terrain between Pahute Mesa on the north and Timber Mountain on the south. This area consists of a complex distribution of volcanic tuff and lava of generally rhyolitic composition erupted from nearby calderas and related vents. Several large buried volcanic structural features control the distribution of volcanic units in the investigation area. The Area 20 caldera, including its structural margin and associated caldera collapse collar, underlies the northeastern portion of the investigation area. The southern half of the investigation area lies within the northwestern portion of the Timber Mountain caldera complex, including portions of the caldera moat and resurgent dome. Another significant structural feature in the area is the west-northwest-trending Northern Timber Mountain moat structural zone, which bisects the northern portion of the investigation area and forms a structural bench. The proposed wells of the UGTA Phase II drilling initiative can be grouped into four generalized volcanic structural domains based on the stratigraphic distribution and structural position of the volcanic rocks in the upper 1,000 meters (3,300 feet) of the crust, a depth that represents the approximate planned total depths of the proposed wells

  2. Theoretical predictions for latent heats and phase-change temperatures of polycrystalline PCMs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medved', Igor; Trník, Anton

    2017-07-01

    We had previously developed a microscopic approach from which it is possible to fit enthalpy jumps and heat capacity peaks of polycrystalline phase-change materials that consists of a large number of grains. It is also possible to determine the corresponding latent heat and phase-change temperature. These results are given in a form of sums over grain diameters that can be evaluated numerically. Therefore, their behavior and dependence on physical parameters are not susceptible to straightforward interpretations. Here we use the results to derive simple formulas for the maximum position (Tmax), height (H), and an asymmetry factor (α) of those heat capacity peaks that are very asymmetric. In addition, we express the phase-change temperature as a simple combination of Tmax, H, α, and the peak's area. We apply our formulas to Rhubitherm 27 as an example PCM for which the heat capacity peak is so asymmetric that it has about 80 % of its total area below its maximum position.

  3. Accurate prediction of complex free surface flow around a high speed craft using a single-phase level set method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broglia, Riccardo; Durante, Danilo

    2017-11-01

    This paper focuses on the analysis of a challenging free surface flow problem involving a surface vessel moving at high speeds, or planing. The investigation is performed using a general purpose high Reynolds free surface solver developed at CNR-INSEAN. The methodology is based on a second order finite volume discretization of the unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations (Di Mascio et al. in A second order Godunov—type scheme for naval hydrodynamics, Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers, Dordrecht, pp 253-261, 2001; Proceedings of 16th international offshore and polar engineering conference, San Francisco, CA, USA, 2006; J Mar Sci Technol 14:19-29, 2009); air/water interface dynamics is accurately modeled by a non standard level set approach (Di Mascio et al. in Comput Fluids 36(5):868-886, 2007a), known as the single-phase level set method. In this algorithm the governing equations are solved only in the water phase, whereas the numerical domain in the air phase is used for a suitable extension of the fluid dynamic variables. The level set function is used to track the free surface evolution; dynamic boundary conditions are enforced directly on the interface. This approach allows to accurately predict the evolution of the free surface even in the presence of violent breaking waves phenomena, maintaining the interface sharp, without any need to smear out the fluid properties across the two phases. This paper is aimed at the prediction of the complex free-surface flow field generated by a deep-V planing boat at medium and high Froude numbers (from 0.6 up to 1.2). In the present work, the planing hull is treated as a two-degree-of-freedom rigid object. Flow field is characterized by the presence of thin water sheets, several energetic breaking waves and plungings. The computational results include convergence of the trim angle, sinkage and resistance under grid refinement; high-quality experimental data are used for the purposes of validation, allowing to

  4. Comparison of Forced ENSO-Like Hydrological Expressions in Simulations of the Preindustrial and Mid-Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Sophie C.; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Kelley, Maxwell

    2014-01-01

    Using the water isotope- and vapor source distribution (VSD) tracer-enabled Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE-R, we examine changing El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like expressions in the hydrological cycle in a suite of model experiments. We apply strong surface temperature anomalies associated with composite observed El Nino and La Nina events as surface boundary conditions to preindustrial and mid-Holocene model experiments in order to investigate ENSO-like expressions in the hydrological cycle under varying boundary conditions. We find distinct simulated hydrological anomalies associated with El Nino-like ("ENSOWARM") and La Nina-like ("ENSOCOOL") conditions, and the region-specific VSD tracers show hydrological differences across the Pacific basin between El Nino-like and La Nina-like events. The application of ENSOCOOL forcings does not produce climatological anomalies that represent the equal but opposite impacts of the ENSOWARM experiment, as the isotopic anomalies associated with ENSOWARM conditions are generally stronger than with ENSOCOOL and the spatial patterns of change distinct. Also, when the same ENSO-like surface temperature anomalies are imposed on the mid-Holocene, the hydrological response is muted, relative to the preindustrial. Mid-Holocene changes in moisture sources to the analyzed regions across the Pacific reveal potentially complex relationships between ENSO-like conditions and boundary conditions. Given the complex impacts of ENSO-like conditions on various aspects of the hydrological cycle, we suggest that proxy record insights into paleo-ENSO variability are most likely to be robust when synthesized from a network of many spatially diverse archives, which can account for the potential nonstationarity of ENSO teleconnections under different boundary conditions.

  5. Solid phase evolution in the Biosphere 2 hillslope experiment as predicted by modeling of hydrologic and geochemical fluxes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Dontsova

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available A reactive transport geochemical modeling study was conducted to help predict the mineral transformations occurring over a ten year time-scale that are expected to impact soil hydraulic properties in the Biosphere 2 (B2 synthetic hillslope experiment. The modeling sought to predict the rate and extent of weathering of a granular basalt (selected for hillslope construction as a function of climatic drivers, and to assess the feedback effects of such weathering processes on the hydraulic properties of the hillslope. Flow vectors were imported from HYDRUS into a reactive transport code, CrunchFlow2007, which was then used to model mineral weathering coupled to reactive solute transport. Associated particle size evolution was translated into changes in saturated hydraulic conductivity using Rosetta software. We found that flow characteristics, including velocity and saturation, strongly influenced the predicted extent of incongruent mineral weathering and neo-phase precipitation on the hillslope. Results were also highly sensitive to specific surface areas of the soil media, consistent with surface reaction controls on dissolution. Effects of fluid flow on weathering resulted in significant differences in the prediction of soil particle size distributions, which should feedback to alter hillslope hydraulic conductivities.

  6. Forecasting method for global radiation time series without training phase: Comparison with other well-known prediction methodologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voyant, Cyril; Motte, Fabrice; Fouilloy, Alexis; Notton, Gilles; Paoli, Christophe; Nivet, Marie-Laure

    2017-01-01

    Integration of unpredictable renewable energy sources into electrical networks intensifies the complexity of the grid management due to their intermittent and unforeseeable nature. Because of the strong increase of solar power generation the prediction of solar yields becomes more and more important. Electrical operators need an estimation of the future production. For nowcasting and short term forecasting, the usual technics based on machine learning need large historical data sets of good quality during the training phase of predictors. However data are not always available and induce an advanced maintenance of meteorological stations, making the method inapplicable for poor instrumented or isolated sites. In this work, we propose intuitive methodologies based on the Kalman filter use (also known as linear quadratic estimation), able to predict a global radiation time series without the need of historical data. The accuracy of these methods is compared to other classical data driven methods, for different horizons of prediction and time steps. The proposed approach shows interesting capabilities allowing to improve quasi-systematically the prediction. For one to 10 h horizons Kalman model performances are competitive in comparison to more sophisticated models such as ANN which require both consistent historical data sets and computational resources. - Highlights: • Solar radiation forecasting with time series formalism. • Trainless approach compared to machine learning methods. • Very simple method dedicated to solar irradiation forecasting with high accuracy.

  7. Navier-Stokes and Comprehensive Analysis Performance Predictions of the NREL Phase VI Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duque, Earl P. N.; Burklund, Michael D.; Johnson, Wayne

    2003-01-01

    A vortex lattice code, CAMRAD II, and a Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stoke code, OVERFLOW-D2, were used to predict the aerodynamic performance of a two-bladed horizontal axis wind turbine. All computations were compared with experimental data that was collected at the NASA Ames Research Center 80- by 120-Foot Wind Tunnel. Computations were performed for both axial as well as yawed operating conditions. Various stall delay models and dynamics stall models were used by the CAMRAD II code. Comparisons between the experimental data and computed aerodynamic loads show that the OVERFLOW-D2 code can accurately predict the power and spanwise loading of a wind turbine rotor.

  8. Prediction of retention time in reversed-phase liquid chromatography as a tool for steroid identification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Randazzo, Giuseppe Marco; Tonoli, David; Hambye, Stephanie; Guillarme, Davy; Jeanneret, Fabienne; Nurisso, Alessandra; Goracci, Laura; Boccard, Julien; Rudaz, Serge

    2016-01-01

    The untargeted profiling of steroids constitutes a growing research field because of their importance as biomarkers of endocrine disruption. New technologies in analytical chemistry, such as ultra high-pressure liquid chromatography coupled with mass spectrometry (MS), offer the possibility of a fast and sensitive analysis. Nevertheless, difficulties regarding steroid identification are encountered when considering isotopomeric steroids. Thus, the use of retention times is of great help for the unambiguous identification of steroids. In this context, starting from the linear solvent strength (LSS) theory, quantitative structure retention relationship (QSRR) models, based on a dataset composed of 91 endogenous steroids and VolSurf + descriptors combined with a new dedicated molecular fingerprint, were developed to predict retention times of steroid structures in any gradient mode conditions. Satisfactory performance was obtained during nested cross-validation with a predictive ability (Q"2) of 0.92. The generalisation ability of the model was further confirmed by an average error of 4.4% in external prediction. This allowed the list of candidates associated with identical monoisotopic masses to be strongly reduced, facilitating definitive steroid identification. - Highlights: • Difficulties regarding steroid identification are encountered when considering isotopomeric steroids. • Quantitative structure retention relationship (QSRR) models were developed from the linear solvent strength theory. • A dataset composed of 91 steroids and VolSurf + descriptors combined with a new dedicated molecular fingerprint, were used. • The list of candidates associated with identical monoisotopic masses was reduced, facilitating steroid identification.

  9. Prediction of retention time in reversed-phase liquid chromatography as a tool for steroid identification

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Randazzo, Giuseppe Marco [School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of Geneva and University of Lausanne, Geneva (Switzerland); Tonoli, David [School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of Geneva and University of Lausanne, Geneva (Switzerland); Swiss Centre for Applied Human Toxicology (SCAHT), Universities of Basel and Geneva, Basel (Switzerland); Human Protein Sciences Department, University of Geneva, Geneva (Switzerland); Hambye, Stephanie; Guillarme, Davy [School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of Geneva and University of Lausanne, Geneva (Switzerland); Jeanneret, Fabienne [School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of Geneva and University of Lausanne, Geneva (Switzerland); Swiss Centre for Applied Human Toxicology (SCAHT), Universities of Basel and Geneva, Basel (Switzerland); Human Protein Sciences Department, University of Geneva, Geneva (Switzerland); Nurisso, Alessandra [School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of Geneva and University of Lausanne, Geneva (Switzerland); Goracci, Laura [Department of Chemistry, Biology and Biotechnology, University of Perugia, Perugia (Italy); Boccard, Julien [School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of Geneva and University of Lausanne, Geneva (Switzerland); Rudaz, Serge, E-mail: serge.rudaz@unige.ch [School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of Geneva and University of Lausanne, Geneva (Switzerland); Swiss Centre for Applied Human Toxicology (SCAHT), Universities of Basel and Geneva, Basel (Switzerland)

    2016-04-15

    The untargeted profiling of steroids constitutes a growing research field because of their importance as biomarkers of endocrine disruption. New technologies in analytical chemistry, such as ultra high-pressure liquid chromatography coupled with mass spectrometry (MS), offer the possibility of a fast and sensitive analysis. Nevertheless, difficulties regarding steroid identification are encountered when considering isotopomeric steroids. Thus, the use of retention times is of great help for the unambiguous identification of steroids. In this context, starting from the linear solvent strength (LSS) theory, quantitative structure retention relationship (QSRR) models, based on a dataset composed of 91 endogenous steroids and VolSurf + descriptors combined with a new dedicated molecular fingerprint, were developed to predict retention times of steroid structures in any gradient mode conditions. Satisfactory performance was obtained during nested cross-validation with a predictive ability (Q{sup 2}) of 0.92. The generalisation ability of the model was further confirmed by an average error of 4.4% in external prediction. This allowed the list of candidates associated with identical monoisotopic masses to be strongly reduced, facilitating definitive steroid identification. - Highlights: • Difficulties regarding steroid identification are encountered when considering isotopomeric steroids. • Quantitative structure retention relationship (QSRR) models were developed from the linear solvent strength theory. • A dataset composed of 91 steroids and VolSurf + descriptors combined with a new dedicated molecular fingerprint, were used. • The list of candidates associated with identical monoisotopic masses was reduced, facilitating steroid identification.

  10. Mars Internal Structure: Seismic Predictions for Core Phase Arrivals in Anticipation of the InSight Mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, R. C.; Banerdt, W. B.; Lognonne, P. H.; Hempel, S.; Panning, M. P.; Schmerr, N. C.; Garcia, R.; Shiro, B.; Gudkova, T.

    2016-12-01

    We present a methodology to constrain the seismic structure of the Martian core in preparation for the return of data from the InSight mission. Expected amplitudes for marsquakes assuming a medium seismicity model support the likely observation of core reflections of P and S energy for events with magnitude greater than MW 4.5. For the mission duration, we would expect to record on the order of 10 events of at least this magnitude. Our method predicts the ray density of core reflected (PcP, ScS) and transmitted (PKP, SKS) phases for various core sizes with core-mantle boundary depths between 1650 and 2100 km. Ray density is defined as the fraction of rays in a small source-receiver interval normalized by the total number of rays over a great circle slice through the planet. The ray density of a given phase is scaled by predicted amplitudes calculated considering attenuation, geometric spreading and reflection/transmission coefficients at discontinuities along the ray path. Maximum PcP/ScS amplitudes are expected at epicentral distances of 40-100 degrees. Thus, if present, strong seismicity in the Hellas and Tharsis region may facilitate core detection. For events with MW above 4.5, ScS and SKS signals are expected to lie above the lander noise, but PcP and PKP signals may barely be visible. The resolution of these phases can be improved by applying stacking techniques to account for expected background noise, scattering, and interfering seismic phases. These techniques were successfully applied to Apollo seismograms to infer the radial structure of the lunar core. Even if source depth and location have large uncertainties during a single-station mission to Mars, different phases can be distinguished by their slownesses. Prior to the summation of the traces of individual events, signals are aligned to a reference phase, e.g. the PcP onset assuming various core radii. A maximum in signal coherency corresponds to the best fitting core radius. In the case of lunar

  11. Eventos de tiempo severo inducidos por el ENSO en la temporada invernal cubana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available ÉVÉNEMENTS MÉTÉOROLOGIQUES SÉVÈRES INDUITS PAR LES ENSO AU COURS DE LA PÉRIODE HIVERNALE À CUBA. La période hivernale à Cuba correspond généralement à la période sèche, au cours de laquelle, à l’inverse de ce qui se passe en été, on n’enregistre généralement pas de séquence pluviométrique sévère. Cependant, l’influence de l’ENSO peut activer des systèmes météorologiques de manière anormale pour des latitudes aussi basses. Il se produit alors relativement souvent des séquences météorologiques sévères de 24 à 48 heures de durée, avec l’avancée de lignes de grains, des pluies intenses, des tornades, de la grêle et des inondations dans les zones côtières. Ceci provoque des morts et de gros dégâts. Les climatologues reconnaissent l’ENSO comme la cause la plus importante de variabilité climatique inter-annuelle de la planète. Ils en décrivent et en prédisent les effets, comme les anomalies de précipitations ou de températures. Cependant on ne peut évaluer de manière plus précise ces conséquences qu’en étudiant les systèmes synoptiques induits par l’ENSO, qui sont responsables de ces excès. Cette étape est indispensable pour la mise en place d’un système d’alerte avancé requis par la Défense Civile. On montre, dans cet article, le rôle joué par le jet-stream subtropical, dans la formation de ces événements climatologiques sévères. Ainsi, l’étude des périodes hivernales affectées par un ENSO depuis 1957-58 jusqu’à 1996-97 a permis d’établir des situations types des niveaux de surface et supérieurs de l’atmosphère, associés à des événements sévères induits par l’ENSO. On présente aussi des exemples des conséquences des principaux événements. A l’aide de ces situations types, on a pu élaborer un système d’alerte avancée mis à la disposition de la Défense Civile et permettant d’effectuer des prévisions à 7 et à 10 jours. La temporada invernal cubana

  12. Predicting muscle forces during the propulsion phase of single leg triple hop test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvim, Felipe Costa; Lucareli, Paulo Roberto Garcia; Menegaldo, Luciano Luporini

    2018-01-01

    Functional biomechanical tests allow the assessment of musculoskeletal system impairments in a simple way. Muscle force synergies associated with movement can provide additional information for diagnosis. However, such forces cannot be directly measured noninvasively. This study aims to estimate muscle activations and forces exerted during the preparation phase of the single leg triple hop test. Two different approaches were tested: static optimization (SO) and computed muscle control (CMC). As an indirect validation, model-estimated muscle activations were compared with surface electromyography (EMG) of selected hip and thigh muscles. Ten physically healthy active women performed a series of jumps, and ground reaction forces, kinematics and EMG data were recorded. An existing OpenSim model with 92 musculotendon actuators was used to estimate muscle forces. Reflective markers data were processed using the OpenSim Inverse Kinematics tool. Residual Reduction Algorithm (RRA) was applied recursively before running the SO and CMC. For both, the same adjusted kinematics were used as inputs. Both approaches presented similar residuals amplitudes. SO showed a closer agreement between the estimated activations and the EMGs of some muscles. Due to inherent EMG methodological limitations, the superiority of SO in relation to CMC can be only hypothesized. It should be confirmed by conducting further studies comparing joint contact forces. The workflow presented in this study can be used to estimate muscle forces during the preparation phase of the single leg triple hop test and allows investigating muscle activation and coordination. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Prediction of SFL Interruption Performance from the Results of Arc Simulation during High-Current Phase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jong-Chul; Lee, Won-Ho; Kim, Woun-Jea

    2015-09-01

    The design and development procedures of SF6 gas circuit breakers are still largely based on trial and error through testing although the development costs go higher every year. The computation cannot cover the testing satisfactorily because all the real processes arc not taken into account. But the knowledge of the arc behavior and the prediction of the thermal-flow inside the interrupters by numerical simulations are more useful than those by experiments due to the difficulties to obtain physical quantities experimentally and the reduction of computational costs in recent years. In this paper, in order to get further information into the interruption process of a SF6 self-blast interrupter, which is based on a combination of thermal expansion and the arc rotation principle, gas flow simulations with a CFD-arc modeling are performed during the whole switching process such as high-current period, pre-current zero period, and current-zero period. Through the complete work, the pressure-rise and the ramp of the pressure inside the chamber before current zero as well as the post-arc current after current zero should be a good criterion to predict the short-line fault interruption performance of interrupters.

  14. Prediction of fluid phase behaviors in a CO{sub 2}-EOR process in Weyburn Field, Saskatchewan, Canada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhao, L.; Law, D.H.S. [Alberta Research Council, Edmonton, AB (Canada); Freitag, N.; Huang, S. [Saskatchewan Research Council, Regina, SK (Canada)

    2005-07-01

    The mechanisms of enhanced oil recovery (EOR) and carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) storage in an oil depleted reservoir are being studied at the International Energy Agency's (IEA) Weyburn CO2 Monitoring and Storage Project in Saskatchewan. One of the objectives of this multi-disciplinary project has been to develop a Pressure-Volume-Temperature (PVT) model for the CO{sub 2}-Weyburn oil system that can be coupled with compositional reservoir models for short- and long-term field-scale reservoir simulations. In order to assess the long term risk of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) injection for the purpose of EOR, it is important to accurately predict the CO{sub 2} distribution in different phases in the reservoir (aqueous, oleic and gaseous). The newly developed seven-component PVT model for Weyburn oil was based on measurements of phase-behavior properties such as oil density, viscosity, gas-oil ratio, saturation pressure and minimum miscibility pressure from oil samples collected from wells in different parts of the reservoir. The Peng-Robinson equation of state was used for the PVT model development and CO{sub 2} solubility in water was described by Henry's Law. Estimations of mineral trapping, ionic trapping and solubility trapping of CO{sub 2} are based on the amount of CO{sub 2} stored in the aqueous phase, but the amount of CO{sub 2} stored in the gaseous phase, which is the most mobile phase of CO{sub 2} in the reservoir, is essential in the estimation of CO{sub 2} leakage. The model was continuously modified as the field process proceeded in order to identify the dynamic change in fluid properties and the effect of contaminants in the injecting CO{sub 2}. The model, coupled with a compositional reservoir model, was used to predict the CO{sub 2} distribution and storage performance in the Weyburn field. 2 refs., 4 tabs., 8 figs.

  15. Phase-rectified signal averaging method to predict perinatal outcome in infants with very preterm fetal growth restriction- a secondary analysis of TRUFFLE-trial

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lobmaier, Silvia M.; Mensing van Charante, Nico; Ferrazzi, Enrico; Giussani, Dino A.; Shaw, Caroline J.; Müller, Alexander; Ortiz, Javier U.; Ostermayer, Eva; Haller, Bernhard; Prefumo, Federico; Frusca, Tiziana; Hecher, Kurt; Arabin, Birgit; Thilaganathan, Baskaran; Papageorghiou, Aris T.; Bhide, Amarnath; Martinelli, Pasquale; Duvekot, Johannes J.; van Eyck, Jim; Visser, Gerard H A; Schmidt, Georg; Ganzevoort, Wessel; Lees, Christoph C.; Schneider, Karl T M; Bilardo, Caterina M.; Brezinka, Christoph; Diemert, Anke; Derks, Jan B.; Schlembach, Dietmar; Todros, Tullia; Valcamonico, Adriana; Marlow, Neil; van Wassenaer-Leemhuis, Aleid

    2016-01-01

    Background Phase-rectified signal averaging, an innovative signal processing technique, can be used to investigate quasi-periodic oscillations in noisy, nonstationary signals that are obtained from fetal heart rate. Phase-rectified signal averaging is currently the best method to predict survival

  16. Phase-rectified signal averaging method to predict perinatal outcome in infants with very preterm fetal growth restriction- a secondary analysis of TRUFFLE-trial

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lobmaier, Silvia M.; Mensing van Charante, Nico; Ferrazzi, Enrico; Giussani, Dino A.; Shaw, Caroline J.; Müller, Alexander; Ortiz, Javier U.; Ostermayer, Eva; Haller, Bernhard; Prefumo, Federico; Frusca, Tiziana; Hecher, Kurt; Arabin, Birgit; Thilaganathan, Baskaran; Papageorghiou, Aris T.; Bhide, Amarnath; Martinelli, Pasquale; Duvekot, Johannes J.; van Eyck, Jim; Visser, Gerard H. A.; Schmidt, Georg; Ganzevoort, Wessel; Lees, Christoph C.; Schneider, Karl T. M.; Bilardo, Caterina M.; Brezinka, Christoph; Diemert, Anke; Derks, Jan B.; Schlembach, Dietmar; Todros, Tullia; Valcamonico, Adriana; Marlow, Neil; van Wassenaer-Leemhuis, Aleid

    2016-01-01

    Phase-rectified signal averaging, an innovative signal processing technique, can be used to investigate quasi-periodic oscillations in noisy, nonstationary signals that are obtained from fetal heart rate. Phase-rectified signal averaging is currently the best method to predict survival after

  17. Communication: Predictive partial linearized path integral simulation of condensed phase electron transfer dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huo, Pengfei; Miller, Thomas F. III; Coker, David F.

    2013-01-01

    A partial linearized path integral approach is used to calculate the condensed phase electron transfer (ET) rate by directly evaluating the flux-flux/flux-side quantum time correlation functions. We demonstrate for a simple ET model that this approach can reliably capture the transition between non-adiabatic and adiabatic regimes as the electronic coupling is varied, while other commonly used semi-classical methods are less accurate over the broad range of electronic couplings considered. Further, we show that the approach reliably recovers the Marcus turnover as a function of thermodynamic driving force, giving highly accurate rates over four orders of magnitude from the normal to the inverted regimes. We also demonstrate that the approach yields accurate rate estimates over five orders of magnitude of inverse temperature. Finally, the approach outlined here accurately captures the electronic coherence in the flux-flux correlation function that is responsible for the decreased rate in the inverted regime

  18. Data supporting the prediction of the properties of eutectic organic phase change materials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahwaji, Samer; White, Mary Anne

    2018-04-01

    The data presented in this article include the molar masses, melting temperatures, latent heats of fusion and temperature-dependent heat capacities of fifteen fatty acid phase change materials (PCMs). The data are used in conjunction with the thermodynamic models discussed in Kahwaji and White (2018) [1] to develop a computational tool that calculates the eutectic compositions and thermal properties of eutectic mixtures of PCMs. The computational tool is part of this article and consists of a Microsoft Excel® file available in Mendeley Data repository [2]. A description of the computational tool along with the properties of nearly 100 binary mixtures of fatty acid PCMs calculated using this tool are also included in the present article. The Excel® file is designed such that it can be easily modified or expanded by users to calculate the properties of eutectic mixtures of other classes of PCMs.

  19. PTCH1 is a reliable marker for predicting imatinib response in chronic myeloid leukemia patients in chronic phase.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan M Alonso-Dominguez

    Full Text Available Patched homolog 1 gene (PTCH1 expression and the ratio of PTCH1 to Smoothened (SMO expression have been proposed as prognostic markers of the response of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML patients to imatinib. We compared these measurements in a realistic cohort of 101 patients with CML in chronic phase (CP using a simplified qPCR method, and confirmed the prognostic power of each in a competing risk analysis. Gene expression levels were measured in peripheral blood samples at diagnosis. The PTCH1/SMO ratio did not improve PTCH1 prognostic power (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.71 vs. 0.72. In order to reduce the number of genes to be analyzed, PTCH1 was the selected measurement. High and low PTCH1 expression groups had significantly different cumulative incidences of imatinib failure (IF, which was defined as discontinuation of imatinib due to lack of efficacy (5% vs. 25% at 4 years, P = 0.013, probabilities of achieving a major molecular response (81% vs. 53% at first year, P = 0.02, and proportions of early molecular failure (14% vs. 43%, P = 0.015. Every progression to an advanced phase (n = 3 and CML-related death (n = 2 occurred in the low PTCH1 group (P<0.001 for both comparisons. PTCH1 was an independent prognostic factor for the prediction of IF. We also validated previously published thresholds for PTCH1 expression. Therefore, we confirmed that PTCH1 expression can predict the imatinib response in CML patients in CP by applying a more rigorous statistical analysis. Thus, PTCH1 expression is a promising molecular marker for predicting the imatinib response in CML patients in CP.

  20. Prediction of the single-phase turbulent mixing rate between two parallel subchannels using a subchannel geometry factor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sadatomi, M.; Kawahara, A.; Sato, Y.

    1996-01-01

    This paper presents a simple method for predicting the single-phase turbulent mixing rate between adjacent subchannels in nuclear fuel bundles. In this method, the mixing rate is computed as the sum of the two components of turbulent diffusion and convective transfer. Of these, the turbulent diffusion component is calculated using a newly defined subchannel geometry factor F* and the mean turbulent diffusivity for each subchannel which is computed from Elder's equation. The convective transfer component is evaluated from a mixing Stanton number correlation obtained empirically in this study. In order to confirm the validity of the proposed method, experimental data on turbulent mixing rate were obtained using a tracer technique under adiabatic conditions with three test channels, each consisting of two subchannels. The range of Reynolds number covered was 5000-66 000. From comparisons of the predicted turbulent mixing rates with the experimental data of other investigators as well as the authors, it has been confirmed that the proposed method can predict the data in a range of gap clearance to rod diameter ratio of 0.02-0.4 within about ±25% for square array bundles and about ±35% for triangular array bundles. (orig.)

  1. Massive bleaching of coral reefs induced by the 2010 ENSO, Puerto Cabello, Venezuela.

    Science.gov (United States)

    del Mónaco, Carlos; Haiek, Gerard; Narciso, Samuel; Galindo, Miguel

    2012-06-01

    El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has generated global coral massive bleaching. The aim of this work was to evaluate the massive bleaching of coral reefs in Puerto Cabello, Venezuela derived from ENSO 2010. We evaluated the bleaching of reefs at five localities both at three and five meter depth. The coral cover and densities of colonies were estimated. We recorded living coral cover, number and diameter of bleached and non-bleached colonies of each coral species. The colonies were classified according to the proportion of bleached area. Satellite images (Modis Scar) were analyzed for chlorophyll-a concentration and temperature in August, September, October and November from 2008-2010. Precipitation, wind speed and air temperature information was evaluated in meteorological data for 2009 and 2010. A total of 58.3% of colonies, belonging to 11 hexacoral species, were affected and the greatest responses were observed in Colpophyllia natans, Montastraea annularis and Montastraeafaveolata. The most affected localities were closer to the mainland and had a bleached proportion up to 62.73+/-36.55%, with the highest proportion of affected colonies, whereas the farthest locality showed 20.25+/-14.00% bleached and the smallest proportion. The salinity in situ varied between 30 and 33ppm and high levels of turbidity were observed. According to the satellite images, in 2010 the surface water temperature reached 31 degree C in August, September and October, and resulted higher than those registered in 2008 and 2009. Regionally, chlorophyll values were higher in 2010 than in 2008 and 2009. The meteorological data indicated that precipitation in November 2010 was three times higher than in November 2009. Massive coral bleaching occurred due to a three month period of high temperatures followed by one month of intense ENSO-associated precipitation. However, this latter factor was likely the trigger because of the bleaching gradient observed.

  2. Tropospheric Column Ozone Response to ENSO in GEOS-5 Assimilation of OMI and MLS Ozone Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsen, Mark A.; Wargan, Krzysztof; Pawson, Steven

    2016-01-01

    We use GEOS-5 analyses of Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) ozone observations to investigate the magnitude and spatial distribution of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence on tropospheric column ozone (TCO) into the middle latitudes. This study provides the first explicit spatially resolved characterization of the ENSO influence and demonstrates coherent patterns and teleconnections impacting the TCO in the extratropics. The response is evaluated and characterized by both the variance explained and sensitivity of TCO to the Nino 3.4 index. The tropospheric response in the tropics agrees well with previous studies and verifies the analyses. A two-lobed response symmetric about the Equator in the western Pacific/Indonesian region seen in some prior studies and not in others is confirmed here. This two-lobed response is consistent with the large-scale vertical transport. We also find that the large-scale transport in the tropics dominates the response compared to the small-scale convective transport. The ozone response is weaker in the middle latitudes, but a significant explained variance of the TCO is found over several small regions, including the central United States. However, the sensitivity of TCO to the Nino 3.4 index is statistically significant over a large area of the middle latitudes. The sensitivity maxima and minima coincide with anomalous anti-cyclonic and cyclonic circulations where the associated vertical transport is consistent with the sign of the sensitivity. Also, ENSO related changes to the mean tropopause height can contribute significantly to the midlatitude response. Comparisons to a 22-year chemical transport model simulation demonstrate that these results from the 9- year assimilation are representative of the longer term. This investigation brings insight to several seemingly disparate prior studies of the El Nino influence on tropospheric ozone in the middle latitudes.

  3. Vegetation anomalies associated with the ENSO phenomenon in the Cauca river valley, Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. M. Valencia

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The main factors affecting the production and yield of sugarcane are variety, agronomic management, soil type and climate, of which the first three there is some control, while the climate is one factor of which you cannot have any control, therefore, it should be monitored. Colombia, being located in the equatorial pacific, is affected by two atmospheric oceanic phenomena known as “El Niño” and “La Niña”, which make up the climatic phenomenon of ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation and affect the quantity and the number of days with rainfall and influences the production of sugarcane. The objective of this work is to identify spatially and temporally the zones with greater and lower impact of the ENSO phenomenon in the cultivation of sugarcane in Colombia through the use of the Standard Vegetation Index (SVI and the Rainfall Anomally Index (RAI using EVI/MODIS images and precipitation data from meteorological stations on a quarterly basis for the period 2000-2015. A similar trend was found between both indices in the “El Niño” and “Neutral” seasons, while in the “La Niña” season the RAI tended to rise while the SVI decreased when the RAI was very high, this tendency being much more marked in areas with floods caused by the overflow of the main rivers. In addition, a comparison was made between the SVI index and a productivity anomaly index (IAP, finding a direct correlation between both (R2 = 0.4, p<0.001. This work showed that through the use of vegetation indexes, a temporal analysis of the impact of climate on an agricultural crop can be carried out, especially with ENSO conditions.

  4. A study of Solar-Enso correlation with southern Brazil tree ring index (1955- 1991)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rigozo, N.; Nordemann, D.; Vieira, L.; Echer, E.

    The effects of solar activity and El Niño-Southern Oscillation on tree growth in Southern Brazil were studied by correlation analysis. Trees for this study were native Araucaria (Araucaria Angustifolia)from four locations in Rio Grande do Sul State, in Southern Brazil: Canela (29o18`S, 50o51`W, 790 m asl), Nova Petropolis (29o2`S, 51o10`W, 579 m asl), Sao Francisco de Paula (29o25`S, 50o24`W, 930 m asl) and Sao Martinho da Serra (29o30`S, 53o53`W, 484 m asl). From these four sites, an average tree ring Index for this region was derived, for the period 1955-1991. Linear correlations were made on annual and 10 year running averages of this tree ring Index, of sunspot number Rz and SOI. For annual averages, the correlation coefficients were low, and the multiple regression between tree ring and SOI and Rz indicates that 20% of the variance in tree rings was explained by solar activity and ENSO variability. However, when the 10 year running averages correlations were made, the coefficient correlations were much higher. A clear anticorrelation is observed between SOI and Index (r=-0.81) whereas Rz and Index show a positive correlation (r=0.67). The multiple regression of 10 year running averages indicates that 76% of the variance in tree ring INdex was explained by solar activity and ENSO. These results indicate that the effects of solar activity and ENSO on tree rings are better seen on long timescales.

  5. An Ocean Biology-induced Negative Feedback on ENSO in the Tropical Pacific Climate System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, R. H.

    2016-02-01

    Biological conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean (e.g., phytoplankton biomass) are strongly regulated by physical changes associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The existence and variation of phytoplankton biomass, in turn, act to modulate the vertical penetration of the incoming sunlight in the upper ocean, presenting an ocean biology-induced heating (OBH) effect on the climate system. Previously, a penetration depth of solar radiation in the upper ocean (Hp) is defined to describe the related bio-climate connections. Parameterized in terms of its relationship with the sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific, an empirical model for interannual Hp variability has been derived from remotely sensed ocean color data, which is incorporated into a hybrid coupled model (HCM) to represent OBH effects. In this paper, various HCM experiments are performed to demonstrate the bio-feedback onto ENSO, including a climatological Hp run (in which Hp is prescribed as seasonally varying only), interannual Hp runs (with different intensities of interannually varying OBH effects), and a run in which the sign of the OBH effect is artificially reversed. Significant modulating impacts on interannual variability are found in the HCM, characterized by a negative feedback between ocean biology and the climate system in the tropical Pacific: the stronger the OBH feedback, the weaker the interannual variability. Processes involved in the feedback are analyzed; it is illustrated that the SST is modulated indirectly by ocean dynamical processes induced by OBH. The significance and implication of the OBH effects are discussed for their roles in ENSO variability and model biases in the tropical Pacific.

  6. Significant influences of global mean temperature and ENSO on extreme rainfall over Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villafuerte, Marcelino, II; Matsumoto, Jun

    2014-05-01

    Along with the increasing concerns on the consequences of global warming, and the accumulating records of disaster related to heavy rainfall events in Southeast Asia, this study investigates whether a direct link can be detected between the rising global mean temperature, as well as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and extreme rainfall over the region. The maximum likelihood modeling that allows incorporating covariates on the location parameter of the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is employed. The GEV model is fitted to annual and seasonal rainfall extremes, which were taken from a high-resolution gauge-based gridded daily precipitation data covering a span of 57 years (1951-2007). Nonstationarities in extreme rainfall are detected over the central parts of Indochina Peninsula, eastern coasts of central Vietnam, northwest of the Sumatra Island, inland portions of Borneo Island, and on the northeastern and southwestern coasts of the Philippines. These nonstationarities in extreme rainfall are directly linked to near-surface global mean temperature and ENSO. In particular, the study reveals that a kelvin increase in global mean temperature anomaly can lead to an increase of 30% to even greater than 45% in annual maximum 1-day rainfall, which were observed pronouncedly over central Vietnam, southern coast of Myanmar, northwestern sections of Thailand, northwestern tip of Sumatra, central portions of Malaysia, and the Visayas island in central Philippines. Furthermore, a pronounced ENSO influence manifested on the seasonal maximum 1-day rainfall; a northward progression of 10%-15% drier condition over Southeast Asia as the El Niño develops from summer to winter is revealed. It is important therefore, to consider the results obtained here for water resources management as well as for adaptation planning to minimize the potential adverse impact of global warming, particularly on extreme rainfall and its associated flood risk over the region

  7. Atmospheric QBO and ENSO indices with high vertical resolution from GNSS radio occultation temperature measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilhelmsen, Hallgeir; Ladstädter, Florian; Scherllin-Pirscher, Barbara; Steiner, Andrea K.

    2018-03-01

    We provide atmospheric temperature variability indices for the tropical troposphere and stratosphere based on global navigation satellite system (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) temperature measurements. By exploiting the high vertical resolution and the uniform distribution of the GNSS RO temperature soundings we introduce two approaches, both based on an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The first method utilizes the whole vertical and horizontal RO temperature field from 30° S to 30° N and from 2 to 35 km altitude. The resulting indices, the leading principal components, resemble the well-known patterns of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropics. They provide some information on the vertical structure; however, they are not vertically resolved. The second method applies the EOF analysis on each altitude level separately and the resulting indices contain information on the horizontal variability at each densely available altitude level. They capture more variability than the indices from the first method and present a mixture of all variability modes contributing at the respective altitude level, including the QBO and ENSO. Compared to commonly used variability indices from QBO winds or ENSO sea surface temperature, these new indices cover the vertical details of the atmospheric variability. Using them as proxies for temperature variability is also of advantage because there is no further need to account for response time lags. Atmospheric variability indices as novel products from RO are expected to be of great benefit for studies on atmospheric dynamics and variability, for climate trend analysis, as well as for climate model evaluation.

  8. Tropospheric column ozone response to ENSO in GEOS-5 assimilation of OMI and MLS ozone data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Olsen

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available We use GEOS-5 analyses of Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS ozone observations to investigate the magnitude and spatial distribution of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO influence on tropospheric column ozone (TCO into the middle latitudes. This study provides the first explicit spatially resolved characterization of the ENSO influence and demonstrates coherent patterns and teleconnections impacting the TCO in the extratropics. The response is evaluated and characterized by both the variance explained and sensitivity of TCO to the Niño 3.4 index. The tropospheric response in the tropics agrees well with previous studies and verifies the analyses. A two-lobed response symmetric about the Equator in the western Pacific/Indonesian region seen in some prior studies and not in others is confirmed here. This two-lobed response is consistent with the large-scale vertical transport. We also find that the large-scale transport in the tropics dominates the response compared to the small-scale convective transport. The ozone response is weaker in the middle latitudes, but a significant explained variance of the TCO is found over several small regions, including the central United States. However, the sensitivity of TCO to the Niño 3.4 index is statistically significant over a large area of the middle latitudes. The sensitivity maxima and minima coincide with anomalous anti-cyclonic and cyclonic circulations where the associated vertical transport is consistent with the sign of the sensitivity. Also, ENSO related changes to the mean tropopause height can contribute significantly to the midlatitude response. Comparisons to a 22-year chemical transport model simulation demonstrate that these results from the 9-year assimilation are representative of the longer term. This investigation brings insight to several seemingly disparate prior studies of the El Niño influence on tropospheric ozone in the middle latitudes.

  9. ENSO-Type Signals Recorded in the Late Cretaceous Laminated Sediments of Songliao Basin, Northeast China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, E.; Wang, C.; Hinnov, L. A.; Wu, H.

    2014-12-01

    The quasi-periodic, ca. 2-7 year El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon globally influences the inter-annual variability of temperature and precipitation. Global warming may increase the frequency of extreme ENSO events. Although the Cretaceous plate tectonic configuration was different from today, the sedimentary record suggests that ENSO-type oscillations had existed at the time of Cretaceous greenhouse conditions. Cored Cretaceous lacustrine sediments from the Songliao Basin in Northeast China (SK-1 cores from the International Continental Drilling Program) potentially offer a partially varved record of Cretaceous paleoclimate. Fourteen polished thin sections from the depth interval 1096.12-1096.53 m with an age of 84.4 Ma were analyzed by optical and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). ImageJ software was applied to extract gray scale curves from optical images at pixel resolution. We tracked minimum values of the gray scale curves to estimate the thickness of each lamina. Five sedimentary structures were recognized: flaser bedding, wavy bedding, lenticular bedding, horizontal bedding, and massive layers. The mean layer thicknesses with different sedimentary structures range from 116 to 162mm, very close to the mean sedimentation rate estimated for this sampled interval, 135mm/year, indicating that the layers bounded by pure clay lamina with the minimum gray values are varves. SEM images indicate that a varve is composed, in succession, of one lamina rich in coarse silt, one lamina rich in fine silt, one clay-rich lamina with some silt, and one clay-rich lamina. This suggests that a Cretaceous year featured four distinct depositional seasons, two of which were rainy and the others were lacking precipitation. Spectral analysis of extended intervals of the tuned gray scale curve indicates the presence of inter-annual periodicities of 2.2-2.7 yr, 3.5-6.1 year, and 10.1-14.5 year consistent with those of modern ENSO cycles and solar cycles, as well as

  10. Precipitation response to the current ENSO variability in a warming world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonfils, C.; Santer, B. D.; Phillips, T. J.; Marvel, K.; Leung, L.

    2013-12-01

    The major triggers of past and recent droughts include large modes of variability, such as ENSO, as well as specific and persistent patterns of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs; Hoerling and Kumar, 2003, Shin et al. 2010, Schubert et al. 2009). However, alternative drought initiators are also anticipated in response to increasing greenhouse gases, potentially changing the relative contribution of ocean variability as drought initiator. They include the intensification of the current zonal wet-dry patterns (the thermodynamic mechanism, Held and Soden, 2006), a latitudinal redistribution of global precipitation (the dynamical mechanism, Seager et al. 2007, Seidel et al. 2008, Scheff and Frierson 2008) and a reduction of local soil moisture and precipitation recycling (the land-atmosphere argument). Our ultimate goal is to investigate whether the relative contribution of those mechanisms change over time in response to global warming. In this study, we first perform an EOF analysis of the 1900-1999 time series of observed global SST field and identify a simple ENSO-like (ENSOL) mode of SST variability. We show that this mode is well spatially and temporally correlated with observed worldwide regional precipitation and drought variability. We then develop concise metrics to examine the fidelity with which the CMIP5 coupled global climate models (CGCMs) capture this particular ENSO-like mode in the current climate, and their ability to replicate the observed teleconnections with precipitation. Based on the CMIP5 model projections of future climate change, we finally analyze the potential temporal variations in ENSOL to be anticipated under further global warming, as well as their associated teleconnections with precipitation (pattern, amplitude, and total response). Overall, our approach allows us to determine what will be the effect of the current ENSO-like variability (i.e., as measured with instrumental observations) on precipitation in a warming world. This

  11. Prediction of effective friction factors for single-phase flow in horizontal microfin tubes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, H S; Rose, J W [University of London (United Kingdom). Queen Mary, Department of Engineering

    2004-12-01

    An experimental database, covering a wide range of tube and fin geometric dimensions, Reynolds number and including data for water, R11, and ethylene glycol has been compiled for friction factor for single-phase flow in spirally grooved, horizontal microfin tubes. The tubes (21 in all) had inside diameter at the fin root between 6.46 and 24.13 mm, fin height between 0.13 and 0.47 mm, fin pitch between 0.32 and 1.15 mm, and helix angle between 17 and 45 degrees. The Reynolds number ranged from 2.0x10{sup 3} to 1.63x10{sup 5}. Six earlier friction factor correlations, each based on restricted data sets, have been compared with the database as a whole. None was found to be in good agreement with all of the data. The Jensen and Vlakancic correlation was found to be the best and represents the database within {+-}21%. (author)

  12. Activity measurement and its use in predicting phase relationships in stainless steels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, M.C.Y.

    1989-01-01

    A combination Knudsen cell-mass spectrometer apparatus has been developed by the Bureau of Mines. This apparatus is accurate enough to permit the activity of many alloy components to be measured directly as the ratio of the ion currents of an appropriate isotope evaporated from the alloy and from the pure component. This apparatus has been used to determine the activity of each component as a function of temperature in 75Fe-10Cr-15Ni, 73Fe-6Cr-15Ni-6Al, and 75Fe-4Cr-15Ni-2Al-4Si (at%). The data indicate that additions of Ni, Cr, Al, and/or Si have practically no effect on the activity coefficient of Fe and that the partial substitution of Cr by Al and/or Si decreases the activity coefficient of Ni. In the case of Cr, temperature influences the activity coefficient more than does the content of Al and/or Si. The activity coefficient of Cr in each alloy increases with decreasing temperature, while the activity coefficients of Fe and Ni are temperature insensitive. The resistance of Fe-Ni-Cr base alloys to oxidation and sulfidation and the stability of the austentic phase in such alloys are discussed in light of these activity changes. (orig.)

  13. Remote ENSO forcing versus local air-sea interaction in QTCM: a sensitivity study to intraseasonal variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Gushchina

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The skill of a newly designed global atmospheric model of intermediate complexity - QTCM (for quasi-equilibrium tropical circulation model in simulating the teleconnections is investigated. The role of the ENSO remote forcing over the Pacific surrounding regions is emphasized from sensitivity experiments to critical parameters of the model. The role of the tropical intraseasonal variability (ITV on the simulated ENSO teleconnection pattern is estimated using the methodology proposed by Lin et al. (2000 allowing to damp the energy of ITV in the model. The reduction of intraseasonal variability allows emphasizing the forced response of the atmosphere and eases the detection of local coupled atmosphere-ocean patterns. It was shown that the simulated ITV has an impact on the ENSO teleconnection pattern both in the mid-latitudes and in regions of ascending and descending branches of Walker circulation cells in the tropics.

  14. Evaporation/SST Sensitivity Over the Tropical Oceans During ENSO Events as Estimated from the da Silva, Young, Levitus Surface Marine Data Set

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, F. R.; Fitzjarrald, D. E.; Sohn, B.-J.; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The da Silva, Young and Levitus Surface Marine Atlas, based on observations from the Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set (COADS) Release 1, has been used to investigate the relationship between evaporation and sea-surface temperature (SST) over the global oceans. For the period 1950 to 1987 SST, surface latent heat flux, and other related variables have been filtered to minimize data uncertainties and to focus upon interannual variations associated with warm (El Nino) and cold (La Nina) ENSO events. Compositing procedures have enabled identification of systematic variations in latent heat fluxes accompanying these events and the relationship to spatial anomalies in ocean surface wind speed and humidity. The evaporation response associated with ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) variability is systematic in nature and composed of offsetting contributions from the surface wind and humidity variations. During warm events exceeding 1.0 S.D. delta SST, increases in the surface humidity deficit, delta(qs-qa), between the surface and 2m height dominate regions of positive SST anomalies and lead to increases in evaporation of almost 2 Wm (exp -2) at deltaSST = 0.23 K. Despite the increases in specific humidity, relative humidity decreases slightly in regions of elevated SSTs. For the most part, variations in wind speed are consistent with previous investigations. Weakening of the equatorial easterlies (and generation of westerlies) between 160 degrees E and 140 degrees W dominates during the early phases of warm events. Elevated wind speeds in adjacent subtropical regions and in the eastern equatorial Pacific subsequently develop too. The net contribution of these winds, which reflect adjustments in Hadley and Walker circulation components is toward reduced evaporation. Results for cold periods are approximately similar, but opposite in sign to warm events, though evidence of different temporal evolution is noted.

  15. Spatial and seasonal responses of precipitation in the Ganges and Brahmaputra river basins to ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole modes: implications for flooding and drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pervez, M. S.; Henebry, G. M.

    2014-02-01

    We evaluated the spatial and temporal responses of precipitation in the basins as modulated by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean (IO) dipole modes using observed precipitation records at 43 stations across the Ganges and Brahmaputra basins from 1982 to 2010. Daily observed precipitation records were extracted from Global Surface Summary of the Day dataset and spatial and monthly anomalies were computed. The anomalies were averaged for the years influenced by climate modes combinations. Occurrences of El Niño alone significantly reduced (60% and 88% of baseline in the Ganges and Brahmaputra basins, respectively) precipitation during the monsoon months in the northwestern and central Ganges basin and across the Brahmaputra basin. In contrast, co-occurrence of La Niña and a positive IO dipole mode significantly enhanced (135% and 160% of baseline, respectively) precipitation across both basins. During the co-occurrence of neutral phases in both climate modes (occurring 13 out of 28 yr), precipitation remained below average to average in the agriculturally extensive areas of Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, eastern Nepal, and the Rajshahi district in Bangladesh in the Ganges basin and northern Bangladesh, Meghalaya, Assam, and Arunachal Pradesh in the Brahmaputra basin. This pattern implies that a regular water deficit is likely in these areas with implications for the agriculture sector due to its reliance on consistent rainfall for successful production. Major flooding and drought occurred as a consequence of the interactive effects of the ENSO and IO dipole modes, with the sole exception of extreme precipitation and flooding during El Niño events. This observational analysis will facilitate well informed decision making in minimizing natural hazard risks and climate impacts on agriculture, and supports development of strategies ensuring optimized use of water resources in best management practice under changing climate.

  16. Predicting the effective response of bulk polycrystalline ferroelectric ceramics via improved spectral phase field methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidyasagar, A.; Tan, W. L.; Kochmann, D. M.

    2017-09-01

    Understanding the electromechanical response of bulk polycrystalline ferroelectric ceramics requires scale-bridging approaches. Recent advances in fast numerical methods to compute the homogenized mechanical response of materials with heterogeneous microstructure have enabled the solution of hitherto intractable systems. In particular, the use of a Fourier-based spectral method as opposed to the traditional finite element method has gained significant interest in the homogenization of periodic microstructures. Here, we solve the periodic, electro-mechanically-coupled boundary value problem at the mesoscale of polycrystalline ferroelectrics in order to extract the effective response of barium titanate (BaTiO3) and lead zirconate titanate (PZT) under applied electric fields. Results include the effective electric hysteresis and the associated butterfly curve of strain vs. electric field for mean stress-free electric loading. Computational predictions of the 3D polycrystalline response show convincing agreement with our experimental electric cycling and strain hysteresis data for PZT-5A. In addition to microstructure-dependent effective physics, we also show how finite-difference-based approximations in the spectral solution scheme significantly reduce instability and ringing phenomena associated with spectral techniques and lead to spatial convergence with h-refinement, which have been major challenges when modeling high-contrast systems such as polycrystals.

  17. Prediction of novel hard phases of Si{sub 3}N{sub 4}: First-principles calculations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cui, Lin; Hu, Meng; Wang, Qianqian; Xu, Bo; Yu, Dongli; Liu, Zhongyuan; He, Julong, E-mail: hjl@ysu.edu.cn

    2015-08-15

    Exploration of novel hard metastable phases of silicon nitride was performed using a recently developed particle-swarm optimization method within the CALYPSO software package. Three potential hard metastable phases of t-Si{sub 3}N{sub 4}, m-Si{sub 3}N{sub 4}, and o-Si{sub 3}N{sub 4} were predicted. These phases are mechanically and dynamically stable at ambient pressure based on their elastic constants and phonon dispersions. t-Si{sub 3}N{sub 4} and m-Si{sub 3}N{sub 4} exhibit lower energies than γ-Si{sub 3}N{sub 4} at pressures below 2.5 GPa and 2.9 GPa, respectively, which promise that the formers could be obtained by quenching from γ-Si{sub 3}N{sub 4}. o-Si{sub 3}N{sub 4} is a better high-pressure metastable phase than CaTi{sub 2}O{sub 4}-type Si{sub 3}N{sub 4} proposed by Tatsumi et al. and it can come from the transition of γ-Si{sub 3}N{sub 4} under 198 GPa. The theoretical band gaps of t-Si{sub 3}N{sub 4}, m-Si{sub 3}N{sub 4}, and o-Si{sub 3}N{sub 4} at ambient pressure were 3.15 eV, 3.90 eV, and 3.36 eV, respectively. At ambient pressure, the Vickers hardness values of t-Si{sub 3}N{sub 4} (32.6 GPa), m-Si{sub 3}N{sub 4} (31.5 GPa), and o-Si{sub 3}N{sub 4} (36.1 GPa) are comparable to β-Si{sub 3}N{sub 4} and γ-Si{sub 3}N{sub 4}. With the pressure increasing, t-Si{sub 3}N{sub 4}, m-Si{sub 3}N{sub 4}, and o-Si{sub 3}N{sub 4} will change from the brittle to ductile state at about 15.7 GPa, 7.3 GPa and 28.9 GPa, respectively. - Graphical abstract: This figure shows the crystal structures of three Si{sub 3}N{sub 4} predicted in this manuscript, and left to right: t-Si{sub 3}N{sub 4}, m-Si{sub 3}N{sub 4} and o-Si{sub 3}N{sub 4}. - Highlights: • We explored three metastable phases of Si{sub 3}N{sub 4} — t-Si{sub 3}N{sub 4}, m-Si{sub 3}N{sub 4}, and o-Si{sub 3}N{sub 4}. • The enthalpies of t and m- are much lower than that of γ at ambient pressure. • ois one further high pressure phase than γ. • o-Si{sub 3}N{sub 4} is the most hardest phase in Si

  18. Role of the upper ocean structure in the response of ENSO-like SST variability to global warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yeh, Sang-Wook [Hanyang University, Department of Environmental Marine Science, Ansan (Korea); Dewitte, Boris [Laboratoire d' Etude en Geophysique et Oceanographie Spatiale, Toulouse (France); Yim, Bo Young; Noh, Yign [Yonsei University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Global Environmental Laboratory, Seoul (Korea)

    2010-08-15

    The response of El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like variability to global warming varies comparatively between the two different climate system models, i.e., the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs). Here, we examine the role of the simulated upper ocean temperature structure in the different sensitivities of the simulated ENSO variability in the models based on the different level of CO{sub 2} concentrations. In the MRI model, the sea surface temperature (SST) undergoes a rather drastic modification, namely a tendency toward a permanent El Nino-like state. This is associated with an enhanced stratification which results in greater ENSO amplitude for the MRI model. On the other hand, the ENSO simulated by GFDL model is hardly modified although the mean temperature in the near surface layer increases. In order to understand the associated mechanisms we carry out a vertical mode decomposition of the mean equatorial stratification and a simplified heat balance analysis using an intermediate tropical Pacific model tuned from the CGCM outputs. It is found that in the MRI model the increased stratification is associated with an enhancement of the zonal advective feedback and the non-linear advection. In the GFDL model, on the other hand, the thermocline variability and associated anomalous vertical advection are reduced in the eastern equatorial Pacific under global warming, which erodes the thermocline feedback and explains why the ENSO amplitude is reduced in a warmer climate in this model. It is suggested that change in stratification associated with global warming impacts the equatorial wave dynamics in a way that enhances the second baroclinic mode over the gravest one, which leads to the change in feedback processes in the CGCMs. Our results illustrate that the upper ocean vertical structure simulated in the CGCMs is a key parameter of the sensitivity of ENSO

  19. Relationship between annual precipitation variability and ENSO in Southern California for the Common Era (last 2,000 years)

    Science.gov (United States)

    DU, X.; Hendy, I. L.; Hinnov, L.; Brown, E. T.; Schimmelmann, A.; Pak, D. K.

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a major influence on Southern California's hydroclimate as demonstrated by both historical observations and model simulations. Santa Barbara Basin (SBB) off Southern California preserves a unique varved (i.e. annually laminated) marine sedimentary archive of modern and Holocene hydroclimate variability, notably including the transition from the regionally dry Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) to the wetter Little Ice Age (LIA). Here we present sub-annually resolved scanning XRF elemental counts for the last 2,000 years in SBB from core SPR0901-03KC. Titanium (associated with silicate minerals) is delivered more efficiently to SBB sediments during times of enhanced river flow and in the Mediterranean climate of Southern California, river flow only occurs after precipitation. The Ti record suggests that the precipitation frequency was reduced during the MCA except for a pluvial episode at CE 1075-1121, but increased during the LIA. Time series analysis of Ti counts indicates ENSO variability robustly increased during the intervals CE 450-520, 650-720, 980-1150, 1380-1550 and 1720-1750, and experienced relatively quiescent intervals between CE 50-150, 250-400, 550-650, 750-950, 1150-1280 and 1580-1620. Generally the LIA in Southern California is characterized by more active ENSO variability with long periodicities (4-7 yr) and multi-decadal variability (54 yr). MCA drought episodes were associated with less active ENSO. Active ENSO variability in Southern California during the last 2,000 years coincided with reconstructed southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) suggesting the ITCZ may play a role in the waxing and waning of ENSO teleconnections between the central Pacific and the west coast of North America.

  20. Spatiotemporal Variance of Global Horizontal Moisture Transport and the Influence of Strong ENSO Events Using ERA-Interim Reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kutta, E. J.; Hubbart, J. A.; Svoma, B. M.; Eichler, T. P.; Lupo, A. R.

    2016-12-01

    El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is well documented as a leading source of seasonal to inter-annual variations in global weather and climate. Strong ENSO events have been shown to alter the location and magnitude of Hadley and Walker circulations that maintain equilibrium at tropical latitudes and regulate moisture transport into mid-latitude storm tracks. Broad impacts associated with ENSO events include anomalous regional precipitation (ARP) and temperature patterns and subsequent impacts to socioeconomic and human health systems. Potential socioeconomic and human health impacts range from regional changes in water resources and agricultural productivity to local storm water management, particularly in rapidly urbanizing watersheds. Evidence is mounting to suggest that anthropogenic climate change will increase the frequency of heavy precipitation events, which compounds impacts of ARP patterns associated with strong El Nino events. Therefore, the need exists to identify common regional patterns of spatiotemporal variance of horizontal moisture flux (HMF) during months (Oct-Feb) associated with the peak intensity (Oceanic Nino Index [ONI]) of the three strongest El Nino (ONI > µ + 2σ) and La Nina (ONI hourly resolution before taking the density weighted vertical average. Long term means (LTM; 1979-2015) were quantified and the influence of strong ENSO events was assessed by quantifying deviations from the LTM for each respective covariance property during months associated with the selected ENSO events. Results reveal regions of statistically significant (CI = 0.05) differences from the LTM for the vertically integrated HMF and each covariance quantity. Broader implications of this work include potential for improved seasonal precipitation forecasts at regional scales and subsequent improvements to local water resource management. There is potential for future work objectively comparing these results with output from Earth System Models to improve

  1. Re-evaluating the resource potential of lomas fog oasis environments for Preceramic hunter-gatherers under past ENSO modes on the south coast of Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beresford-Jones, David; Pullen, Alexander G.; Whaley, Oliver Q.; Moat, Justin; Chauca, George; Cadwallader, Lauren; Arce, Susana; Orellana, Alfonso; Alarcón, Carmela; Gorriti, Manuel; Maita, Patricia K.; Sturt, Fraser; Dupeyron, Agathe; Huaman, Oliver; Lane, Kevin J.; French, Charles

    2015-12-01

    Lomas - ephemeral seasonal oases sustained by ocean fogs - were critical to ancient human ecology on the desert Pacific coast of Peru: one of humanity's few independent hearths of agriculture and "pristine" civilisation. The role of climate change since the Late Pleistocene in determining productivity and extent of past lomas ecosystems has been much debated. Here we reassess the resource potential of the poorly studied lomas of the south coast of Peru during the long Middle Pre-ceramic period (c. 8000-4500 BP): a period critical in the transition to agriculture, the onset of modern El Niño Southern Oscillation ('ENSO') conditions, and eustatic sea-level rise and stabilisation and beach progradation. Our method combines vegetation survey and herbarium collection with archaeological survey and excavation to make inferences about both Preceramic hunter-gatherer ecology and the changed palaeoenvironments in which it took place. Our analysis of newly discovered archaeological sites - and their resource context - show how lomas formations defined human ecology until the end of the Middle Preceramic Period, thereby corroborating recent reconstructions of ENSO history based on other data. Together, these suggest that a five millennia period of significantly colder seas on the south coast induced conditions of abundance and seasonal predictability in lomas and maritime ecosystems, that enabled Middle Preceramic hunter-gatherers to reduce mobility by settling in strategic locations at the confluence of multiple eco-zones at the river estuaries. Here the foundations of agriculture lay in a Broad Spectrum Revolution that unfolded, not through population pressure in deteriorating environments, but rather as an outcome of resource abundance.

  2. Prediction of the Gas Injection Effect on the Asphaltene Phase Envelope

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bahrami Peyman

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Asphaltene instability may occur when pressure, temperature and compositional variations affect the reservoir oil. Permeability reduction, wettability alteration, and plugging of wells and flow lines are the consequences of this phenomenon. Therefore, it is crucial to investigate the asphaltene behavior in different thermodynamic conditions by knowing the Asphaltene Precipitation Envelope (APE in a preventive way rather than the costly clean-up procedures. The selected reservoir oil has faced a remarkable decline in production due to several years of extraction, and Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR has been considered as a solution. Therefore, in this paper, a comprehensive study was carried out to predict the effects of different injected gases on asphaltene onset and to prevent future asphaltene precipitation based on the laboratory data. The Advanced Redlich-Kwong-Soave (RKSA equation of state was considered to develop APE using Multiflash (Infochem Co.. For the selected reservoir oil, with temperature reduction at low temperatures, asphaltene precipitation weakened and made the onset pressure decrease, so this behavior is different from the results obtained in other published reports. On the basis of this model, several sensitivity analyses were performed with different gases (i.e., methane, CO2, N2 and associated gases to compare the risk of each gas for future EOR strategies. APE tend to expand as the amount of injected gases increases, except for CO2 gas injection, that showed another unconventional behavior for this crude oil. It was observed that for CO2 gas injection below a certain temperature, asphaltene stability increased, which can be considered as a good inhibitor of asphaltene precipitation.

  3. Critical Test of Some Computational Chemistry Methods for Prediction of Gas-Phase Acidities and Basicities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toomsalu, Eve; Koppel, Ilmar A; Burk, Peeter

    2013-09-10

    Gas-phase acidities and basicities were calculated for 64 neutral bases (covering the scale from 139.9 kcal/mol to 251.9 kcal/mol) and 53 neutral acids (covering the scale from 299.5 kcal/mol to 411.7 kcal/mol). The following methods were used: AM1, PM3, PM6, PDDG, G2, G2MP2, G3, G3MP2, G4, G4MP2, CBS-QB3, B1B95, B2PLYP, B2PLYPD, B3LYP, B3PW91, B97D, B98, BLYP, BMK, BP86, CAM-B3LYP, HSEh1PBE, M06, M062X, M06HF, M06L, mPW2PLYP, mPW2PLYPD, O3LYP, OLYP, PBE1PBE, PBEPBE, tHCTHhyb, TPSSh, VSXC, X3LYP. The addition of the Grimmes empirical dispersion correction (D) to B2PLYP and mPW2PLYP was evaluated, and it was found that adding this correction gave more-accurate results when considering acidities. Calculations with B3LYP, B97D, BLYP, B2PLYPD, and PBE1PBE methods were carried out with five basis sets (6-311G**, 6-311+G**, TZVP, cc-pVTZ, and aug-cc-pVTZ) to evaluate the effect of basis sets on the accuracy of calculations. It was found that the best basis sets when considering accuracy of results and needed time were 6-311+G** and TZVP. Among semiempirical methods AM1 had the best ability to reproduce experimental acidities and basicities (the mean absolute error (mae) was 7.3 kcal/mol). Among DFT methods the best method considering accuracy, robustness, and computation time was PBE1PBE/6-311+G** (mae = 2.7 kcal/mol). Four Gaussian-type methods (G2, G2MP2, G4, and G4MP2) gave similar results to each other (mae = 2.3 kcal/mol). Gaussian-type methods are quite accurate, but their downside is the relatively long computational time.

  4. A tale of ENSO, PDO, and increasing aridity impacts on drought-deciduous shrubs in the Death Valley region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehleringer, James R; Sandquist, Darren R

    2018-06-28

    Germination, establishment, phenology, and death among three drought-deciduous shrubs were influenced by ENSO/PDO and precipitation, based on 37 years of annual surveys. Encelia farinosa forms near monospecific stands on slopes, whereas E. frutescens and Ambrosia salsola dominate wash habitats. All shrubs exhibited phenological coherence. While germination, establishment, and mortality patterns were similar among wash species, these dynamics contrasted with E. farinosa on slopes. Germination was associated with El Niño years. Slope plant establishment was dependent on precipitation in the subsequent year, but not evidently so in wash species. Major mortality events were episodic, with Encelia mortality just as likely to occur in years with below or above average precipitation. In both Encelia species, mortality was associated with transitions to a cold PDO phase. In E. frutescens this response was more rapid, whereas in E. farinosa mortality lagged 1 year, resulting in contrasting slope-wash mortality patterns. 50% of newly established shrubs died within 5, 5, and 18 years for E. frutescens, E. farinosa, and A. salsola, respectively. The 90% mortality ages were 26 years for E. frutescens, 24 years for E. farinosa, and 51 years for A. salsola. While maximum life expectancies are unknown, estimated maximum life expectancies were 56, 66, and 86 years for E. frutescens, E. farinosa, and A. salsola, respectively. Overall, as the climate has become more arid over the past four decades, the populations in both slope and wash habitats have exhibited similar responses: reduced shrub abundances and reduced total supportable leaf areas.

  5. Daily river flow prediction based on Two-Phase Constructive Fuzzy Systems Modeling: A case of hydrological - meteorological measurements asymmetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bou-Fakhreddine, Bassam; Mougharbel, Imad; Faye, Alain; Abou Chakra, Sara; Pollet, Yann

    2018-03-01

    Accurate daily river flow forecast is essential in many applications of water resources such as hydropower operation, agricultural planning and flood control. This paper presents a forecasting approach to deal with a newly addressed situation where hydrological data exist for a period longer than that of meteorological data (measurements asymmetry). In fact, one of the potential solutions to resolve measurements asymmetry issue is data re-sampling. It is a matter of either considering only the hydrological data or the balanced part of the hydro-meteorological data set during the forecasting process. However, the main disadvantage is that we may lose potentially relevant information from the left-out data. In this research, the key output is a Two-Phase Constructive Fuzzy inference hybrid model that is implemented over the non re-sampled data. The introduced modeling approach must be capable of exploiting the available data efficiently with higher prediction efficiency relative to Constructive Fuzzy model trained over re-sampled data set. The study was applied to Litani River in the Bekaa Valley - Lebanon by using 4 years of rainfall and 24 years of river flow daily measurements. A Constructive Fuzzy System Model (C-FSM) and a Two-Phase Constructive Fuzzy System Model (TPC-FSM) are trained. Upon validating, the second model has shown a primarily competitive performance and accuracy with the ability to preserve a higher day-to-day variability for 1, 3 and 6 days ahead. In fact, for the longest lead period, the C-FSM and TPC-FSM were able of explaining respectively 84.6% and 86.5% of the actual river flow variation. Overall, the results indicate that TPC-FSM model has provided a better tool to capture extreme flows in the process of streamflow prediction.

  6. Low dose aerosol fitness at the innate phase of murine infection better predicts virulence amongst clinical strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caceres, Neus; Llopis, Isaac; Marzo, Elena; Prats, Clara; Vilaplana, Cristina; de Viedma, Dario Garcia; Samper, Sofía; Lopez, Daniel; Cardona, Pere-Joan

    2012-01-01

    Evaluation of a quick and easy model to determine the intrinsic ability of clinical strains to generate active TB has been set by assuming that this is linked to the fitness of Mycobacterium tuberculosis strain at the innate phase of the infection. Thus, the higher the bacillary load, the greater the possibility of inducting liquefaction, and thus active TB, once the adaptive response is set. The virulence of seven clinical Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains isolated in Spain was tested by determining the bacillary concentration in the spleen and lung of mice at weeks 0, 1 and 2 after intravenous (IV) inoculation of 10⁴ CFU, and by determining the growth in vitro until the stationary phase had been reached. Cord distribution automated analysis showed two clear patterns related to the high and low fitness in the lung after IV infection. This pattern was not seen in the in vitro fitness tests, which clearly favored the reference strain (H37Rv). Subsequent determination using a more physiological low-dose aerosol (AER) inoculation with 10² CFU showed a third pattern in which the three best values coincided with the highest dissemination capacity according to epidemiological data. The fitness obtained after low dose aerosol administration in the presence of the innate immune response is the most predictive factor for determining the virulence of clinical strains. This gives support to a mechanism of the induction of active TB derived from the dynamic hypothesis of latent tuberculosis infection.

  7. Rational molecular dynamics scheme for predicting optimum concentration loading of nano-additive in phase change materials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monisha Rastogi

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The present study deals with the diffusion and phase transition behaviour of paraffin reinforced with carbon nano-additives namely graphene oxide (GO and surface functionalized single walled carbon nanotubes (SWCNT. Bulk disordered systems of paraffin hydrocarbons impregnated with carbon nano-additives have been generated in realistic equilibrium conformations for potential application as latent heat storage systems. Ab initio molecular dynamics(MD in conjugation with COMPASS forcefield has been implemented using periodic boundary conditions. The proposed scheme allows determination of optimum nano-additive loading for improving thermo-physical properties through analysis of mass, thermal and transport properties; and assists in determination of composite behaviour and related performance from microscopic point of view. It was observed that nanocomposites containing 7.8 % surface functionalised SWCNT and 55% GO loading corresponds to best latent heat storage system. The propounded methodology could serve as a by-pass route for economically taxing and iterative experimental procedures required to attain the optimum composition for best performance. The results also hint at the large unexplored potential of ab-initio classical MD techniques for predicting performance of new nanocomposites for potential phase change material applications.

  8. Predictions of wet natural gases condensation rates via multi-component and multi-phase simulation of supersonic separators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shooshtari, Seyed Heydar Rajaee; Shahsavand, Akbar

    2014-01-01

    Proper correction of water and heavy hydrocarbon dew points of sweet natural gases is essential from various technical and economical standpoints. Supersonic separators (3S) are proved to be capable of achieving these tasks with maximum reliability and minimal expenses. The majority of the previous articles have focused on the flow behavior of pure fluids across a 3S unit. Multicomponent fluid flow inside 3S accompanied with condensation phenomenon will drastically increase the complexity of the simulation process. We tackle this issue by considering a proper combination of fundamental governing equations and phase equilibrium calculations to predict various operating conditions and composition profiles across two multi-component and multi-phase 3S units. Various Iranian sweet gases are used as real case studies to demonstrate the importance of 3S unit practical applications. Simulation results clearly illustrate the effectiveness of 3S units for faithful dehydration of various natural gases, while successfully controlling its dew point, suitable for any practical applications. Conventional HYSYS simulation software is used to validate the simulation results

  9. Perceptions of Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation and Coping Predict Emotional Distress During the Acute Phase After Transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baliousis, Michael; Rennoldson, Michael; Dawson, David L; Mills, Jayne; das Nair, Roshan

    2017-01-01

    To test whether a widely used model of adjustment to illness, the self-regulatory model, explains the patterns of distress during acute hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). According to the model, perceptions of HSCT, coping, and coping appraisals are associated with distress.
. Longitudinal, correlational.
. The Centre for Clinical Haematology at Nottingham City Hospital and the Department of Haematology at Royal Hallamshire Hospital in Sheffield, both in the United Kingdom.
. 45 patients receiving mostly autologous transplantations for a hematologic malignancy.
. Patients were assessed at baseline, on transplantation day, and two and four weeks after transplantation using three questionnaires. Psychological distress, including depression, anxiety, stress, and overall distress (DASS-21); use of different coping styles (Brief COPE); and perceptions of HSCT and coping appraisals (Brief IPQ).
. As suggested by the self-regulatory model, greater distress was associated with negative perceptions of HSCT, controlling for the effects of confounding variables. Mixed support was found for the model's predictions about the impact of coping styles on distress. Use of active and avoidant coping styles was associated with more distress during the acute phase after HSCT.
. Negative perceptions of HSCT and coping contribute to psychological distress during the acute phase after HSCT and suggest the basis for intervention.
. Eliciting and discussing patients' negative perceptions of HSCT beforehand and supporting helpful coping may be important ways to reduce distress during HSCT.

  10. Rational molecular dynamics scheme for predicting optimum concentration loading of nano-additive in phase change materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rastogi, Monisha; Vaish, Rahul; Madhar, Niyaz Ahamad; Shaikh, Hamid; Al-Zahrani, S. M.

    2015-10-01

    The present study deals with the diffusion and phase transition behaviour of paraffin reinforced with carbon nano-additives namely graphene oxide (GO) and surface functionalized single walled carbon nanotubes (SWCNT). Bulk disordered systems of paraffin hydrocarbons impregnated with carbon nano-additives have been generated in realistic equilibrium conformations for potential application as latent heat storage systems. Ab initio molecular dynamics(MD) in conjugation with COMPASS forcefield has been implemented using periodic boundary conditions. The proposed scheme allows determination of optimum nano-additive loading for improving thermo-physical properties through analysis of mass, thermal and transport properties; and assists in determination of composite behaviour and related performance from microscopic point of view. It was observed that nanocomposites containing 7.8 % surface functionalised SWCNT and 55% GO loading corresponds to best latent heat storage system. The propounded methodology could serve as a by-pass route for economically taxing and iterative experimental procedures required to attain the optimum composition for best performance. The results also hint at the large unexplored potential of ab-initio classical MD techniques for predicting performance of new nanocomposites for potential phase change material applications.

  11. Interdecadal modulation of the relationship between ENSO, IPO and precipitation: insights from tree rings in Australia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heinrich, Ingo [School of Resources, Environment and Society, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT (Australia); Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Climate Dynamics and Landscape Evolution, Potsdam (Germany); Weidner, Kathrin [Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Climate Dynamics and Landscape Evolution, Potsdam (Germany); Forschungszentrum Juelich GmbH, Institute for Chemistry and Dynamics of the Geosphere, Juelich (Germany); Helle, Gerhard [Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Climate Dynamics and Landscape Evolution, Potsdam (Germany); Vos, Heinz [Forschungszentrum Juelich GmbH, Institute for Chemistry and Dynamics of the Geosphere, Juelich (Germany); Lindesay, Janette; Banks, John C.G. [School of Resources, Environment and Society, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT (Australia)

    2009-07-15

    Australian climate-proxy reconstructions based on tree rings from tropical and subtropical forests have not been achieved so far due to the rarity of species producing anatomically distinct annual growth rings. Our study identifies the Australian Red Cedar (Toona ciliata) as one of the most promising tree species for tree-ring research in Australasia because this species exhibits distinct annual tree rings, a prerequisite for high quality tropical dendroclimatology. Based on these preliminary studies, we were able, for the first time in subtropical and tropical Australia, to develop a statistically robust, precisely dated and annually resolved chronology back to AD1854. We show that the variability in ring widths of T. ciliata is mainly dependent on annual precipitation. The developed proxy data series contains both high- and low-frequency climate signals which can be associated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). A comparison of different data sets (Brisbane precipitation, tree rings, coral luminescence record from the Great Barrier Reef, ENSO and IPO) revealed non-stationary correlation patterns throughout the twentieth century but little instability between the new tree-ring chronology and Brisbane precipitation. (orig.)

  12. The influence of ENSO on an oceanic eddy pair in the South China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Xiaoqing; Dong, Changming; Qi, Yiquan

    2017-03-01

    An eddy pair off the Vietnam coast is one of the most important features of the summertime South China Sea circulation. Its variability is of interest due to its profound impact on regional climate, ecosystems, biological processes, and fisheries. This study examines the influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a basin-scale climatic mode, on the interannual variability of this regional eddy pair using satellite observational data and historical hydrographic measurements. Over the last three decades, the eddy pair strengthened in 1994 and 2002, and weakened in 2006, 2007, and 2008. It was absent in 1988, 1995, 1998, and 2010, coinciding with strong El Nino-to-La Nina transitions. Composite analyses showed that the strong transition events of ENSO led to radical changes in the summer monsoon, through the forcing of a unique sea surface temperature anomaly structure over the tropical Indo-Pacific basin. With weaker zonal wind, a more northward wind direction, and the disappearance of a pair of positive and negative wind stress curls, the eastward current jet turns northward along the Vietnam coast and the eddy pair disappears.

  13. On the unstable ENSO-Western North Pacific Monsoon relation during the 20th Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vega Martín, Inmaculada; Gallego Puyol, David; Ribera Rodriguez, Pedro; Gómez Delgado, Francisco de Paula; Peña-Ortiz, Cristina

    2017-04-01

    The concept of the Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon (WNPSM) appeared for the first time in 1987. Unlike the Indian Summer Monsoon and the East Asian summer monsoon, the WNPSM is an oceanic monsoon driven essentially by the meridional gradient of sea surface temperature. Its circulation is characterized by a northwest-southeast oriented monsoon trough with intense precipitation and low-level southwesterlies and upper-tropospheric easterlies in the region [100°-130° E, 5°-15°N]. Although this monsoon is mainly oceanic, it modulates the precipitation of densely populated areas such as the Philippines. To date, the WNPSM has been quantified by the so-called Western North Pacific Monsoon Index (WNPMI), an index based on wind anomalies over large domains of the Western Pacific. The requirement of continuous observed wind over remote oceanic areas to compute the WNPMI has limited its availability to the 1949-2014 period. In this work we have extended the index by almost 100 years by using historical observations of wind direction taken aboard ships. Our Western North Pacific Directional Index (WNPDI), is defined as the sum of the persistence of the low-level westerly winds in [5°-15°N, 100°-130°E] and easterly winds in [20°-30°N, 110°-140°E]. The new WNPDI index is highly correlated to the existent WNPMI for the concurrent period (1948-2014). (r=+0.88, p<0.01), indicating that the new approach based in the use of wind direction alone (a variable that can be considered instrumental even before the 20th Century), captures most of the monsoonal signal. Previous studies found that, during the second part of the 20th Century the WNPSM exhibited two basic characteristics: first a large interannual variability and second, a significant relation between the WNPSM and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a way in which a strong (weak) WNPSM tends to occur during the El Niño (La Niña) developing year or/and La Niña (El Niño) decaying year. The analysis of

  14. A robust predictive current controller for healthy and open-circuit faulty conditions of five-phase BLDC drives applicable for wind generators and electric vehicles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salehi Arashloo, Ramin; Salehifar, Mehdi; Romeral, Luis; Sala, Vicent

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Model predictive deadbeat control of generator stator phase currents. • Fault tolerant control of five-phase BLDC generator. • Control of stator phase currents under normal and open-circuit faulty conditions. • MATLAB simulation and experimental verification of proposed control method. • Verification of robustness and fast respond of proposed controlling method. - Abstract: Fault tolerant control of five-phase brushless direct current (BLDC) machines is gaining more importance in high-safety applications such as offshore wind generators and automotive industries. In many applications, traditional controllers (such as PI controllers) are used to control the stator currents under faulty conditions. These controllers have good performance with dc signals. However, in the case of missing one or two of the phases, appropriate reference currents of these machines have oscillatory dynamics both in phase- and synchronous-reference frames. Non-constant nature of these reference values requires the implication of fast current controllers. In this paper, model predictive deadbeat controllers are proposed to control the stator currents of five-phase BLDC machines under normal and faulty conditions. Open circuit fault is considered for both one and two stator phases, and the behaviour of proposed controlling method is evaluated. This evaluation is generally focused on first, sensitivity of proposed controlling method and second, its speed in following reference current values under transient states. Proposed method is simulated and is verified experimentally on a five-phase BLDC drive

  15. Assessment of myocardial bridge by cardiac CT: Intracoronary transluminal attenuation gradient derived from diastolic phase predicts systolic compression

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu, Meng Meng; Zhang, Yang; Li, Yue Hua; Li, Wen Bin; Li, Ming Hua; Zhang, Jiayin [Institute of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Shanghai Jiao Tong University Affiliated Sixth People' s Hospital, Shangha (China)

    2017-08-01

    To study the predictive value of transluminal attenuation gradient (TAG) derived from diastolic phase of coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) for identifying systolic compression of myocardial bridge (MB). Consecutive patients diagnosed with MB based on CCTA findings and without obstructive coronary artery disease were retrospectively enrolled. In total, 143 patients with 144 MBs were included in the study. Patients were classified into three groups: without systolic compression, with systolic compression < 50%, and with systolic compression ≥ 50%. TAG was defined as the linear regression coefficient between intraluminal attenuation in Hounsfield units (HU) and length from the vessel ostium. Other indices such as the length and depth of the MB were also recorded. TAG was the lowest in MB patients with systolic compression ≥ 50% (-19.9 ± 8.7 HU/10 mm). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was performed to determine the optimal cutoff values for identifying systolic compression ≥ 50%. The result indicated an optimal cutoff value of TAG as -18.8 HU/10 mm (area under curve = 0.778, p < 0.001), which yielded higher sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and diagnostic accuracy (54.1, 80.5, 72.8, and 75.0%, respectively). In addition, the TAG of MB with diastolic compression was significantly lower than the TAG of MB without diastolic compression (-21.4 ± 4.8 HU/10 mm vs. -12.7 ± 8 HU/10 mm, p < 0.001). TAG was a better predictor of MB with systolic compression ≥ 50%, compared to the length or depth of the MB. The TAG of MB with persistent diastolic compression was significantly lower than the TAG without diastolic compression.

  16. Possible influence of the ENSO phenomenon on the pathoecology of diphyllobothriasis and anisakiasis in ancient Chinchorro populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernardo T Arriaza

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Current clinical data show a clear relationship between the zoonosis rates of Diphyllobothrium pacificum and Anisakis caused by the El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO phenomenon along the Chilean coast. These parasites are endemic to the region and have a specific habitat distribution. D. pacificum prefers the warmer waters in the northern coast, while Anisakis prefers the colder waters of Southern Chile. The ENSO phenomenon causes a drastic inversion in the seawater temperatures in this region, modifying both the cool nutrient-rich seawater and the local ecology. This causes a latitudinal shift in marine parasite distribution and prevalence, as well as drastic environmental changes. The abundance of human mummies and archaeological coastal sites in the Atacama Desert provides an excellent model to test the ENSO impact on antiquity. We review the clinical and archaeological literature debating to what extent these parasites affected the health of the Chinchorros, the earliest settlers of this region. We hypothesise the Chinchorro and their descendants were affected by this natural and cyclical ENSO phenomenon and should therefore present fluctuating rates of D. pacificum and Anisakis infestations.

  17. Perspective on the northwestward shift of autumn tropical cyclogenesis locations over the western North Pacific from shifting ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Chundi; Zhang, Chengyang; Yang, Song; Chen, Dake; He, Shengping

    2017-11-01

    During the recent decades of satellite era, more tropical cyclogenesis locations (TCLs) were observed over the northwestern part of the western North Pacific (WNP), relative to the southeastern part, during the boreal autumn. This increase in TCLs over the northwestern WNP is largely attributed to the synergy of shifting El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the 1998 Pacific climate regime shift. Both central Pacific (CP) La Niña and CP El Niño have occurred more frequently since 1998, with only one eastern Pacific El Niño observed in autumn 2015. The change in the mean longitude of TCLs is closely linked to the ENSO diversity, whereas the change in the mean latitude is dominated by the warming of the WNP induced by an interdecadal tendency of CP La Niña-like events. The physical mechanisms responsible for this shifting ENSO-TCL linkage can be potentially explained by the tacit-and-mutual configurations between tropical upper-tropospheric trough and monsoon trough, on both interannual and interdecadal timescales, which is mainly due to the ENSO-related large-scale environment changes in ocean and atmosphere that modulate the WNP TCL.

  18. Temperature dependence of the particle/gas partition coefficient: An application to predict indoor gas-phase concentrations of semi-volatile organic compounds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wei, Wenjuan, E-mail: Wenjuan.Wei@cstb.fr [University of Paris-Est, Scientific and Technical Center for Building (CSTB), Health and Comfort Department, French Indoor Air Quality Observatory (OQAI), 84 Avenue Jean Jaurès, Champs sur Marne, 77447 Marne la Vallée Cedex 2 (France); Mandin, Corinne [University of Paris-Est, Scientific and Technical Center for Building (CSTB), Health and Comfort Department, French Indoor Air Quality Observatory (OQAI), 84 Avenue Jean Jaurès, Champs sur Marne, 77447 Marne la Vallée Cedex 2 (France); INSERM-U1085, Irset-Research Institute for Environmental and Occupational Health, Rennes (France); LERES-Environment and Health Research Laboratory (Irset and EHESP Technologic Platform), Rennes (France); Blanchard, Olivier [EHESP-School of Public Health, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Rennes (France); INSERM-U1085, Irset-Research Institute for Environmental and Occupational Health, Rennes (France); Mercier, Fabien [EHESP-School of Public Health, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Rennes (France); LERES-Environment and Health Research Laboratory (Irset and EHESP Technologic Platform), Rennes (France); INSERM-U1085, Irset-Research Institute for Environmental and Occupational Health, Rennes (France); Pelletier, Maud [EHESP-School of Public Health, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Rennes (France); INSERM-U1085, Irset-Research Institute for Environmental and Occupational Health, Rennes (France); Le Bot, Barbara [EHESP-School of Public Health, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Rennes (France); LERES-Environment and Health Research Laboratory (Irset and EHESP Technologic Platform), Rennes (France); INSERM-U1085, Irset-Research Institute for Environmental and Occupational Health, Rennes (France); and others

    2016-09-01

    The indoor gas-phase concentrations of semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOCs) can be predicted from their respective concentrations in airborne particles by applying the particle/gas partitioning equilibrium. The temperature used for partitioning is often set to 25 °C. However, indoor temperatures frequently differ from this reference value. This assumption may result in errors in the predicted equilibrium gas-phase SVOC concentrations. To improve the prediction model, the temperature dependence of the particle/gas partition coefficient must be addressed. In this paper, a theoretical relationship between the particle/gas partition coefficient and temperature was developed based on the SVOC absorptive mechanism. The SVOC particle/gas partition coefficients predicted by employing the derived theoretical relationship agree well with the experimental data retrieved from the literature (R > 0.93). The influence of temperature on the equilibrium gas-phase SVOC concentration was quantified by a dimensionless analysis of the derived relationship between the SVOC particle/gas partition coefficient and temperature. The predicted equilibrium gas-phase SVOC concentration decreased by between 31% and 53% when the temperature was lowered by 6 °C, while it increased by up to 750% when the indoor temperature increased from 15 °C to 30 °C. - Highlights: • A theoretical relationship between K{sub p} and temperature was developed. • The relationship was based on the SVOC absorptive mechanism. • The temperature impact was quantified by a dimensionless analysis.

  19. The Defining Characteristics of ENSO Extremes and the Strong 2015/2016 El Niño

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santoso, Agus; Mcphaden, Michael J.; Cai, Wenju

    2017-12-01

    The year 2015 was special for climate scientists, particularly for the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) research community, as a major El Niño finally materialized after a long pause since the 1997/1998 extreme El Niño. It was scientifically exciting since, due to the short observational record, our knowledge of an extreme El Niño has been based only on the 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 events. The 2015/2016 El Niño was marked by many environmental disasters that are consistent with what is expected for an extreme El Niño. Considering the dramatic impacts of extreme El