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Sample records for enso oscilacion madden-julian

  1. Relationships between the Antarctic oscillation, the Madden-Julian oscillation, and ENSO, and consequences for rainfall analysis

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Pohl, B

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available not appear to project coherently on the well-known AAO patterns and are never of an annular nature. At the interannual time scale, a strong teleconnection with ENSO is found during the peak of the austral summer season, corroborating previous studies. El Niño...

  2. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Madden Julian Oscillation index (MJO) is a dataset that allows evaluation of the strength and phase of the MJO during the dataset...

  3. Monitoring the Madden-Julian oscillation with geopotential height

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leung, Jeremy Cheuk-Hin; Qian, Weihong

    2017-09-01

    This paper examines the three-dimensional geopotential height structure of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) and proposes that the MJO convection signals can be well reflected by upper-tropospheric zonal anomalous height gradient (ZAHG, \

  4. Modulation of Atlantic Aerosols by the Madden-Julian Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, B.; Waliser, D. E.; Kahn, Ralph A.; Wong, S.

    2010-01-01

    Much like the better-known EI Nino-Southern Oscillation, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a global-scale atmospheric phenomenon. The MJO involves periodic, systematic changes in the distribution of clouds and precipitation over the western Pacific and Indian oceans, along with differences in wind intensity over even more extensive areas, including the north and subtropical Atlantic Ocean. The lead authors of this paper developed a sophisticated mathematical technique for mapping the spatial and temporal behavior of changes in the atmosphere produced by the MJO. In a previous paper, we applied this technique to search for modulation of airborne particle amount in the eastern hemisphere associated with the "wet" (cloudy) vs. "dry" phases of the MJO. The study used primarily AVHRR, MODIS, and TOMS satellite-retrieved aerosol amount, but concluded that other factors, such as cloud contamination of the satellite signals, probably dominated the observed variations. The current paper looks at MJO modulation of desert dust transport eastward across the Atlantic from northern Africa, a region much less subject to systematic cloud contamination than the eastern hemisphere areas studied previously. In this case, a distinct aerosol signal appears, showing that dust is transported westward much more effectively during the MJO phase that favors westward-flowing wind, and such transport is suppressed when the MJO reduces these winds. Aside form the significant achievement in identifying such an effect, the result implies that an important component of global dust transport can be predicted based on the phase of the MJO. As a consequence, the impact of airborne dust on storm development in the Atlantic, and on dust deposition downwind of the desert sources, can also be predicted and more accurately modeled.

  5. The Madden-Julian Oscillation in NCEP Coupled Model Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wanqiu Wang Kyong-Hwan Seo

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This study documents a detailed analysis on the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO simulated by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP using the Global Forecast System (GFS model version 2003 coupled with the Climate Forecast System model (CFS consisting of the 2003 version of GFS and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL Modular Ocean Model V.3 (MOM3. The analyses are based upon a 21-year simulation of AMIP-type with GFS and CMIP-type with CFS. It is found that air-sea coupling in CFS is shown to improve the coherence between convection and large-scale circulation associated with the MJO. The too fast propagation of convection from the Indian Ocean to the maritime continents and the western Pacific in GFS is improved (slowed down in CFS. Both GFS and CFS produce too strong intraseasonal convective heating and circulation anomalies in the central-eastern Pacific; further, the air-sea coupling in CFS enhances this unrealistic feature. The simulated mean slow phase speed of east ward propagating low-wavenumber components shown in the wavenumber-frequency spectra is due to the slow propagation in the central-eastern Pacific in both GFS and CFS. Errors in model climatology may have some effect upon the simulated MJO and two possible influences are: (i CFS fails to simulate the westerlies over maritime continents and western Pacific areas, resulting in an unrealistic representation of surface latent heat flux associated with the MJO; and (ii vertical easterly wind shear from the Indian Ocean to the western Pacific in CFS is much weaker than that in the observation and in GFS, which may adversely affect the eastward propagation of the simulated MJO.

  6. A Mechanism Denial Study on the Madden-Julian Oscillation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    In-Sik Kang

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available A series of Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO mechanism-denial experiments is performed using an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM. Daily climatological seasonal cycles of i surface latent heat flux, ii net radiative heating rate, and iii surface wind stress are obtained from a control simulation and prescribed in place of the normal interactive computations of these fields in order to turn off the i wind-induced surface heat exchange (WISHE, ii cloud-radiation interaction (CRI, and iii frictional wave-CISK (FWC mechanisms, respectively. Dual and triple mechanism denial experiments are also conducted by switching off multiple mechanisms together. The influence of each mechanism is assessed by comparing experiments with that mechanism turned off to those in which it is not. CRI and WISHE are both found to be important to the simulated MJO amplitude and propagation speed, while FWC has weaker and less systematic effects. The MJO is weakened when CRI is turned off, but strengthened when WISHE is turned off, indicating that CRI amplifies the MJO in the control simulation while WISHE weakens it. The negative influence of WISHE is shown to result from simulated phase relationships between surface winds, surface fluxes and convection which differ significantly from those found in observations, and thus is not interpreted as evidence against a positive role for WISHE in the development and maintenance of the observed MJO. The positive influence of CRI in the model is consistent with a strong simulated relationship between daily grid-point column-integrated radiative and convective heating; the mean ratio of the latter to the former exceeds 0.2 for rain rates less than 14 mm d-1. CRI is also shown to suppress an excessive excitation of the convectively coupled Kelvin wave so that the amplitude and frequency of the MJO is maintained.

  7. Madden-Julian Oscillation Teleconnections and Their Influence on Northern Hemisphere Winter Blocking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henderson, Stephanie A.

    Winter blocking events are characterized by persistent and quasi-stationary patterns that re-direct precipitation and air masses, leading to long-lasting extreme winter weather. Studies have shown that the teleconnection patterns forced by the primary mode of tropical intraseasonal variability, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), influence extratropical factors associated with blocking, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation. However, the influence of the MJO on winter blocking is not well understood. Understanding this relationship may improve the mid-range forecasting of winter blocking and the associated weather extremes. The impact of the MJO on Northern Hemisphere winter blocking is examined using a two-dimensional blocking index. Results suggest that all MJO phases demonstrate significant changes in west and central Pacific high-latitude blocking. East Pacific and Atlantic blocking are significantly suppressed following phase 3 of the MJO, characterized by anomalous convection in the tropical East Indian Ocean and suppressed convection in the west Pacific. A significant increase in east Pacific and Atlantic blocking follows the opposite-signed MJO heating during MJO phase 7. Over Europe, blocking is suppressed following MJO phase 4 and significantly increased after MJO phase 6. Results suggest that the European blocking increase may be due to two precursors: 1) a pre-existing anomalous Atlantic anticyclone, and 2) a negative Pacific North American (PNA) pattern triggered by the MJO. The influence of the MJO on winter blocking may be different if a change occurs to the basic state and/or MJO heating, such as during El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. MJO teleconnections during ENSO events are examined using composite analysis and a nonlinear baroclinic model and their influence of winter high-latitude blocking is discussed. Results demonstrate that the ENSO-altered MJO teleconnection patterns significantly influence Pacific and Atlantic blocking and

  8. Multiscale asymptotics for the Skeleton of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Tropical-Extratropical Interactions

    CERN Document Server

    Chen, Shengqian; Stechmann, Samuel N

    2015-01-01

    A new model is derived and analyzed for tropical-extratropical interactions involving the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). The model combines (i) the tropical dynamics of the MJO and equatorial baroclinic waves and (ii) the dynamics of barotropic Rossby waves with significant extratropical structure, and the combined system has a conserved energy. The method of multiscale asymptotics is applied to systematically derive a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) for three-wave resonant interactions. Two novel features are (i) a degenerate auxiliary problem with overdetermined equations due to a compatibility condition (meridional geostrophic balance) and (ii) cubic self-interaction terms that are not typically found in three-wave resonance ODEs. Several examples illustrate applications to MJO initiation and termination, including cases of (i) the MJO, equatorial baroclinic Rossby waves, and barotropic Rossby waves interacting, and (ii) the MJO, baroclinic Kelvin waves, and barotropic Rossby waves inter...

  9. Feature Tracking and Visualization of Madden-Julian Osciallation in Climate Simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Teng-Yok; Tong, Xin; Shen, Han-Wei; Wong, Pak C.; Hagos, Samson M.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2013-06-20

    Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is one of the less understood aspects of tropical meteorology, which plays a significant role in tropical intra-seasonal variations in rain, temperature and winds over the Indian and Pacific Oceans. In this paper, we present an integrated analysis and visualization framework for MJO episodes simulated by a high resolution regional model. To distinguish MJOs from other weather phenomena, our framework utilizes domain knowledge to track MJOs as finding the globally optimized properties in the data. In addition to enhancing the animation with feature tracking, our visualization system also integrates different visualization components such as Virtual Globe and Hovmoller Diagrams to visualize large scale events both in space and time. By linking all of these visualization components on a web-based interface, scientists can identify cloud and environmental processes associated with the initiation and eastward propagation of MJO more easily.

  10. Thermodynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in a Regional Model with Constrained Moisture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hagos, Samson M.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Dudhia, Jimy

    2011-09-01

    In order to identify the main thermodynamic processes that sustain the Madden Julian Oscillation, an eddy available potential energy budget analysis is performed on a WRF simulation with moisture constrained by observations. The model realistically simulates the two MJO episodes observed during the winter of 2007-2008. The analysis shows that instabilities and damping associated with variations in diabatic heating and energy transport work in concert to provide the MJO with its observed characteristics. The results are used to construct a simplified paradigm of MJO thermodynamics. Furthermore, the effect of moisture nudging on the simulation is analyzed to understand the limitations of the model cumulus parameterization. Without moisture nudging, the parameterization fails to provide adequate low-level (upper-level) moistening during the early (late) stage of the MJO active phase. The moistening plays a critical role in providing stratiform heating variability that is an important source of eddy available potential energy for the model MJO.

  11. Moist thermodynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in a cloud resolving simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hagos, Samson M.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2011-10-31

    The moist thermodynamic processes that determine the scale and energy of the Madden-Julian Oscillation are investigated using moisture and eddy available potential energy (EAPE) budget analyses on a high resolution regional model simulation. The two MJO episodes observed during the winter of 2007-2008 are realistically simulated. In the model, small differences among the timescales of convective vertical transport, mixing and condensation of moisture determine the timescale of MJO moistening. Furthermore, various cloud types play a damping or destabilizing contribution role in the EAPE budget of the MJO, depending on their characteristic latent heating profile and its covariance with the temperature fluctuations. The results are used identify possible sources of the difficulties in simulating MJO in low resolution models that rely on cumulus parameterizations.

  12. Using AMIE data to study cloud processes within the Madden-Julian Oscillation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Houze, Robert A. [Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences

    2015-12-17

    This study uses AMIE data to show how the small clouds in the Madden-Julian Oscillation first organize into lines and other patterns, how they develop the first rainshowers, how those showers deposit cool air over the ocean surface, how this cool air spreads and triggers deeper convection, how the deep convection develops into mesoscale systems, how the mesoscale systems modify the heating profile through the depth of the troposphere, and how the development of the clouds responds to and interacts with large-scale waves circumnavigating the globe at upper levels, and how equatorial trapped waves at lower levels modulates the development of the cloud population. The techniques used to analyze the radar and sounding data collected in AMIE to achieve the above results are innovative, and to obtain more general results we have used regional modeling with a variety of cloud microphysical schemes in combination with the data analyses.

  13. Low-order stochastic model and "past-noise forecasting" of the Madden-Julian Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kondrashov, D.; Chekroun, M. D.; Robertson, A. W.; Ghil, M.

    2013-10-01

    This paper presents a predictability study of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) that relies on combining empirical model reduction (EMR) with the "past-noise forecasting" (PNF) method. EMR is a data-driven methodology for constructing stochastic low-dimensional models that account for nonlinearity, seasonality and serial correlation in the estimated noise, while PNF constructs an ensemble of forecasts that accounts for interactions between (i) high-frequency variability (noise), estimated here by EMR, and (ii) the low-frequency mode of MJO, as captured by singular spectrum analysis (SSA). A key result is that—compared to an EMR ensemble driven by generic white noise—PNF is able to considerably improve prediction of MJO phase. When forecasts are initiated from weak MJO conditions, the useful skill is of up to 30 days. PNF also significantly improves MJO prediction skill for forecasts that start over the Indian Ocean.

  14. Visualizing and verifying probabilistic forecasts of the Madden-Julian Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Andrew G.; Hendon, Harry H.; Hudson, Debra

    2016-12-01

    We describe a new approach for presenting probabilistic forecasts of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) based on the community standard Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index, using forecasts from version 2 of the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia. This new display overcomes the difficulty of interpreting a dispersive ensemble plume and directly quantifies the probability for the MJO to occur in each of its eight RMM-defined phases as well as the weak phase. Beyond monitoring and interpreting predictions of the MJO, this new approach also provides a basis for forecast verification using probability-based skill scores. Here we present a clear and concise quantitative summary of this innovative method for accessing probability of the state of the MJO in an ensemble forecast. This new method compliments the traditional MJO ensemble forecast display and verification and will benefit global forecasting centers, international MJO working groups, and the World Meteorological Organization Subseasonal to Seasonal Project.

  15. Impact of the quasi-biennial oscillation on predictability of the Madden-Julian oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Andrew G.; Hendon, Harry H.; Son, Seok-Woo; Lim, Yuna

    2017-08-01

    The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) during boreal winter is observed to be stronger during the easterly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) than during the westerly phase, with the QBO zonal wind at 50 hPa leading enhanced MJO activity by about 1 month. Using 30 years of retrospective forecasts from the POAMA coupled model forecast system, we show that this strengthened MJO activity during the easterly QBO phase translates to improved prediction of the MJO and its convective anomalies across the tropical Indo-Pacific region by about 8 days lead time relative to that during westerly QBO phases. These improvements in forecast skill result not just from the fact that forecasts initialized with stronger MJO events, such as occurs during QBO easterly phases, have greater skill, but also from the more persistent behaviour of the MJO for a similar initial amplitude during QBO easterly phases as compared to QBO westerly phases. The QBO is thus an untapped source of subseasonal predictability that can provide a window of opportunity for improved prediction of global climate.

  16. Role of Longwave Cloud-Radiation Feedback in the Simulation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Daehyun; Ahn, Min-Seop; Kang, In-Sik; Del Genio, Anthony D.

    2015-01-01

    The role of the cloud-radiation interaction in the simulation of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is investigated. A special focus is on the enhancement of column-integrated diabatic heating due to the greenhouse effects of clouds and moisture in the region of anomalous convection. The degree of this enhancement, the greenhouse enhancement factor (GEF), is measured at different precipitation anomaly regimes as the negative ratio of anomalous outgoing longwave radiation to anomalous precipitation. Observations show that the GEF varies significantly with precipitation anomaly and with the MJO cycle. The greenhouse enhancement is greater in weak precipitation anomaly regimes and its effectiveness decreases monotonically with increasing precipitation anomaly. The GEF also amplifies locally when convection is strengthened in association with the MJO, especially in the weak precipitation anomaly regime (less than 5 mm day(exp -1)). A robust statistical relationship is found among CMIP5 climate model simulations between the GEF and the MJO simulation fidelity. Models that simulate a stronger MJO also simulate a greater GEF, especially in the weak precipitation anomaly regime (less than 5 mm day(exp -1)). Models with a greater GEF in the strong precipitation anomaly regime (greater than 30 mm day(-1)) represent a slightly slower MJO propagation speed. Many models that lack the MJO underestimate the GEF in general and in particular in the weak precipitation anomaly regime. The results herein highlight that the cloud-radiation interaction is a crucial process for climate models to correctly represent the MJO.

  17. A general theoretical framework for understanding essential dynamics of Madden-Julian oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Bin; Chen, Guosen

    2017-10-01

    Motivated by observed structure of Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), a general theoretical model framework is advanced for understanding fundamental aspects of MJO dynamics. The model extends the Matsuno-Gill theory by incorporating (a) moisture feedback to precipitation, (b) a trio-interaction among equatorial waves, boundary layer (BL) dynamics, and precipitation, and (c) a simplified Betts-Miller (B-M) cumulus parameterization. The general model with B-M scheme yields a frictionally coupled dynamic moisture mode, which produces an equatorial planetary-scale, unstable system moving eastward slowly with coupled Kelvin-Rossby wave structure and BL moisture convergence leading major convection. The moisture feedback in B-M scheme reinforces the coupling between precipitation heating and Rossby waves and enhances the Rossby wave component in the MJO mode, thereby slowing down eastward propagation and resulting in a more realistic horizontal structure. It is, however, the BL frictional convergence feedback that couples equatorial Kelvin and Rossby waves with convective heating and selects a preferred eastward propagation. The eastward propagation speed in the model is inversely related to the relative intensity of the equatorial "Rossby" westerly versus "Kelvin" easterly associated with the MJO. The cumulus parameterization scheme may affect propagation speed through changing MJO horizontal structure. The SST or basic-state moist static energy has a fundamental control on MJO propagation speed and intensification/decay. Model sensitivity to BL and cumulus scheme parameters and ramifications of the model results to general circulation modeling are discussed.

  18. Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Madden-Julian Oscillation Investigation Experiment Field Campaign Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Long, Chuck [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, CO (United States). Earth System Research Lab.

    2016-07-01

    Every 30–90 days during the Northern Hemisphere winter, the equatorial tropical atmosphere experiences pulses of extraordinarily strong deep convection and rainfall. This phenomenon is referred to as the Madden–Julian Oscillation, or MJO, named after the scientists who identified this cycle. The MJO significantly affects weather and rainfall patterns around the world (Zhang 2013). To improve predictions of the MJO—especially about how it forms and evolves throughout its lifecycle—an international group of scientists collected an unprecedented set of observations from the Indian Ocean and western Pacific region from October 2011 through March 2012 through several coordinated efforts. The coordinated field campaigns captured six distinct MJO cycles in the Indian Ocean. The rich set of observations capturing several MJO events from these efforts will be used for many years to study the physics of the MJO. Here we highlight early research results using data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Madden-Julian Oscillation Investigation Experiment (AMIE), sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility.

  19. Modulation of Global Fire Probability by the Madden-Julian Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Chidong

    2014-05-01

    The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is an atmospheric phenomenon that dominates the subseasonal (20 - 90 day) variability in the tropics. Its main feature includes an eastward moving large-scale center of deep convection from the Indian Ocean to the western and central Pacific Ocean. As its convection center moves eastward, the MJO exerts influences on many weather, climate and other phenomena in the Earth system, both in the tropics and extratropics. Satellite-based global fire data sets (MODIS, ATSR) have revealed that probability of fire in many regions of the world undergoes systematic changes through the life cycle of the MJO. For example, when MJO convection center is located over the Indian Ocean, fire probability is anomalous high in West Africa and northern Australia, but anomalously low in central Africa, the Amazonia, and Alaska. In the tropics, such changes are directly related to rainfall fluctuations of the MJO itself in the eastern hemisphere, and are consequences of atmospheric equatorial waves excited by MJO convection that propagate into the western hemisphere. In the extratropics, the changes are mainly due to teleconnection patterns in the atmosphere established by anomalous convection of the MJO. Simultaneous perturbations in rainfall, surface temperature and humidity suggest that no single meteorological variable can fully explain the modulation of fire probability by the MJO. Current efforts are being made to related wild fire to lightening frequencies, which are also modulated by the MJO.

  20. Low and high frequency Madden-Julian oscillations in austral summer: interannual variations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Izumo, Takeshi [Research Institute For Global Change (JAMSTEC), Yokohama (Japan); LOCEAN, IRD-CNRS-UPMC, Paris (France); Masson, Sebastien; Vialard, Jerome; Madec, Gurvan [LOCEAN, IRD-CNRS-UPMC, Paris (France); Boyer Montegut, Clement de [IFREMER, Brest (France); Behera, Swadhin K. [Research Institute For Global Change (JAMSTEC), Yokohama (Japan); Takahashi, Keiko [Earth Simulator Center (JAMSTEC), Yokohama (Japan); Yamagata, Toshio [Research Institute For Global Change (JAMSTEC), Yokohama (Japan); University of Tokyo, Tokyo (Japan)

    2010-09-15

    The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is the main component of intraseasonal variability of the tropical convection, with clear climatic impacts at an almost-global scale. Based on satellite observations, it is shown that there are two types of austral-summer MJO events (broadly defined as 30-120 days convective variability with eastward propagation of about 5 m/s). Equatorial MJO events have a period of 30-50 days and tend to be symmetric about the equator, whereas MJO events centered near 8 S tend to have a longer period of 55-100 days. The lower-frequency variability is associated with a strong upper-ocean response, having a clear signature in both sea surface temperature and its diurnal cycle. These two MJO types have different interannual variations, and are modulated by the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Following a negative IOD event, the lower-frequency southern MJO variability increases, while the higher-frequency equatorial MJO strongly diminishes. We propose two possible explanations for this change in properties of the MJO. One possibility is that changes in the background atmospheric circulation after an IOD favour the development of the low-frequency MJO. The other possibility is that the shallower thermocline ridge and mixed layer depth, by enhancing SST intraseasonal variability and thus ocean-atmosphere coupling in the southwest Indian Ocean (the breeding ground of southern MJO onset), favour the lower-frequency southern MJO variability. (orig.)

  1. Sensitivity to Madden-Julian Oscillation variations on heavy precipitation over the contiguous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Charles; Carvalho, Leila M. V.

    2014-10-01

    The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the most prominent mode of tropical intraseasonal variability in the climate system and has worldwide influences on the occurrences and forecasts of heavy precipitation. This paper investigates the sensitivity of precipitation over the contiguous United States (CONUS) in a case study (boreal 2004-05 winter). Several major storms affected the western and eastern CONUS producing substantial economic and social impacts including loss of lives. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to perform experiments to test the significance of the MJO amplitude. The control simulation uses the MJO amplitude observed by reanalysis, whereas the amplitude is modified in perturbation experiments. WRF realistically simulates the precipitation variability over the CONUS, although large biases occur over the Western and Midwest United States. Daily precipitation is aggregated in western, central and eastern sectors and the frequency distribution is analyzed. Increases in MJO amplitude produce moderate increases in the median and interquartile range and large and robust increases in extreme (90th and 95th percentiles) precipitation. The MJO amplitude clearly affects the transport of moisture from the tropical Pacific and Gulf of Mexico into North America providing moist rich air masses and the dynamical forcing that contributes to heavy precipitation.

  2. Wintertime Phytoplankton Blooms in the Western Equatorial Indian Ocean Associated With the Madden-Julian Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Xiaomei; Du, Yan; Zhan, Haigang; Wang, Tianyu; Feng, Ming

    2017-12-01

    This study investigated boreal wintertime phytoplankton blooms in the western equatorial Indian Ocean (WEIO) and the underlying physical mechanisms. The Sea viewing Wide field of View sensor (SeaWiFS) chlorophyll-a (Chla) concentrations show that phytoplankton blooms occur in the WEIO during December-March. The development of these blooms is not only a seasonal process but also consists of 2-3 intraseasonal events induced by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). During a typical intraseasonal event, enhanced cross-equatorial wind induces strong upwelling and ocean mixing, thus increasing the supply of nutrients to the surface in equatorial regions. Argo profiles clearly show various responses to the intraseasonal wind bursts, including shoaling of the thermocline and deepening of the mixed layer. Further analysis reveals that the former is the dominant mechanism for the blooms along the equator, while the latter controls the high Chla concentrations off the coast of Somalia. Surface ocean circulations not only account for the blooms south of the equator but also modulate the thermocline depth in the WEIO. The shallower thermocline during the early period of the northeast monsoon season provides favorable conditions for a stronger Chla response to intraseasonal forcing.

  3. Impact of the Madden Julian Oscillation on the summer West African monsoon in AMIP simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niang, Coumba; Mohino, Elsa; Gaye, Amadou T.; Omotosho, J. Bayo

    2017-04-01

    At intraseasonal timescales, convection over West Africa is modulated by the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). In this work we investigate the simulation of such relationship by 11 state-of-the-art atmospheric general circulation models runs with prescribed observed sea surface temperatures. In general, the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project simulations show good skill in capturing the main characteristics of the summer MJO as well as its influence on convection and rainfall over West Africa. Most models simulate an eastward spatiotemporal propagation of enhanced and suppressed convection similar to the observed MJO, although their signal over West Africa is weaker in some models. In addition, the ensemble average of models' composites gives a better performance in reproducing the main features and timing of the MJO and its impact over West Africa. The influence on rainfall is well captured in both Sahel and Guinea regions thereby adequately producing the transition between positive and negative rainfall anomalies through the different phases as in the observations. Furthermore, the results show that a strong active convection phase is clearly associated with a stronger African Easterly Jet (AEJ) but the weak convective phase is associated with a much weaker AEJ. Our analysis of the equatorial waves suggests that the main impact over West Africa is established by the propagation of low-frequency waves within the MJO and Rossby spectral peaks. Results from the simulations confirm that it may be possible to predict anomalous convection over West Africa with a time lead of 15-20 day.

  4. Key processes for the eastward propagation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation based on multimodel simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Xianan

    2017-01-01

    As a prominent climate variability mode with widespread influences on global weather extremes, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) remains poorly represented in the latest generation of general circulation models (GCMs), with a particular challenge in simulating its eastward propagating convective signals. In this study, by analyzing multimodel simulations from a recent global MJO model evaluation project, an effort is made to identify key processes for the eastward propagation of the MJO through analyses of moisture entropy (ME) processes under a "moisture mode" framework for the MJO. The column-integrated horizontal ME advection is found to play a critical role for the eastward propagation of the MJO in both observations and good MJO models, with a primary contribution through advection of the lower tropospheric seasonal mean ME by the MJO anomalous circulations. By contrast, the horizontal ME advection effect for the eastward propagation is greatly underestimated in poor MJO GCMs, due to model deficiencies in simulating both the seasonal mean ME pattern and MJO circulations, leading to a largely stationary MJO mode in these GCMs. These results thus pinpoint an important guidance toward improved representation of the MJO in climate and weather forecast models. While this study mainly focuses on fundamental physics for the MJO propagation over the Indian Ocean, complex influences by the Maritime Continent on the MJO and also ME processes associated with the MJO over the western Pacific warrant further investigations.

  5. A climate model diagnostic metric for the Madden-Julian oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez, A. O.; Jiang, X.

    2016-12-01

    Despite its significant impacts on global weather and climate, the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) remains a grand challenge for state-of-the-art general circulation models (GCMs). The eastward propagation of the MJO is often poorly simulated in GCMs, represented by a stationary or even westward propagating mode. Recent analyses based on moist static energy processes suggest the horizontal advection of the winter mean moist static energy by the MJO circulation plays a critical role in the observed eastward propagation of the MJO. In this study, we explore relationships between model fidelity in representing the eastward propagation of the MJO and the winter mean lower-tropospheric moisture pattern by analyzing a suite of GCMs from a recent multi-model MJO comparison project. Model capability of reproducing the observed spatial pattern of the 650-900 hPa winter mean specific humidity is a robust indicator of how well they reproduce the MJO's eastward propagation. In particular, model skill in simulating the low-level winter mean specific humidity over the Maritime Continent region (20°S-20°N, 90°-135°E) is highly correlated with model skill of MJO propagation across the 23 GCMs analyzed, with a correlation of about 0.8. Winter mean lower-tropospheric moisture patterns over two other regions, including the western Indian Ocean and an off-equatorial region in the central Indian Ocean, also exhibit high correlations with MJO propagation skill in the model simulations. This study supports recent studies in highlighting the importance of the mean low-level moisture for MJO propagation and it points out a direction for model improvement of the MJO. Meanwhile, it is also suggested that the winter mean low-level moisture pattern over the Indo-Pacific region, particularly over the Maritime Continent region, can serve as a diagnostic metric for the eastward propagation of the MJO in climate model assessments.

  6. Interactions of river discharge parameterizations with the Madden Julian oscillation in the CESM

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMott, C. A.; Tseng, Y. H.; Bryan, F.

    2016-12-01

    River discharge in the tropical Warm Pool is a source of fresh water to the upper ocean, which can help stabilize the upper ocean, reduce ocean mixing, and promote radiation-driven surface warming. Large rivers, such as the Ganges, that drain large land masses provide quasi-steady freshening during certain seasons. Freshening from rivers that drain smaller land masses, such as islands within the Maritime Continent, is more regulated by rainfall. The Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) regulates instraseasonal rainfall, SST, and surface salinity across the Warm Pool, and is sensitive to the ocean response to this forcing. The effects of estuarine river discharge on upper ocean stratification and interactions with the MJO are explored using two different estuary parameterizations in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). In the control simulation (CTR), river discharge is spread uniformly onto the ocean surface over an artificially chosen length scale using the virtual salt flux approach. In the experimental configuration, river discharge is confined to the ocean model grid point containing the river delta, and mixed vertically with a two-layer estuary box model (EBM). In EBM, the temperature and salinity distribution is driven mainly by oceanic mixing and advection without ad-hoc horizontal spreading. Compared to EBM, over-dispersal of river runoff in CTR leads to fresher surface waters, shallower ocean mixed layers, and more variable SSTs throughout the Warm Pool. In CTR, river discharge is transported to a larger area by surface currents. Specifically, fresh water from the Ganges contributes to a low salinity, warm SST band near 10N in the central Indian Ocean; in the Indonesian Seas, overly dispersed runoff contributes to a shallower mixed layer and larger SST increases during the MJO suppressed phase. MJO convection and propagation characteristics suggest that the MJO in CTR benefits from the overly dispersed river discharge, while the MJO in EBM is less impacted.

  7. Thermodynamics in the Suppressed Phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation Using a Multiplatform Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, J. Brent; Robertson, Franklin R.; Clayson, Carol Anne; Taylor, Patrick

    2014-01-01

    The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) represents a prominent mode of intraseasonal tropical variability. It is manifest by coherent large-scale changes in atmospheric circulation, convection, and thermodynamic processes. Preconditioning of the environment prior to the active phase of the MJO has been noted, but the balance of theorized mechanisms to accomplish this process remains unresolved. Further, there is a lack of consensus on the means by which primary initiation of an MJO event occurs. Observational and modeling efforts have recently been undertaken to advance our understanding of the physical underpinnings governing MJO development. However these intensive studies are often limited in space and/or time and are potentially subject to model deficiencies. Satellite observations, especially those providing vertical resolution of temperature and moisture, provide an opportunity to expand our knowledge of processes critical to MJO initiation and preconditioning. This work will provide an analysis of suppressed phase thermodynamics with an emphasis on the use of a complementary suite of satellite observations including AIRS/AMSU-A profiles, CERES radiative fluxes, and cloud properties observed by MODIS. Emphasis of this work will regard the distribution of cloud regimes, their radiative-convective effects, and their relationship to moist static energy during the recharge and suppressed stages of MJO initiation and eastward propagation. The analyses will make use of cloud regimes from MODIS observations to provide a compositing technique that enables the identification of systematic connections between different cloud regimes and the larger scale environment. Within these cloud regimes, the relationship between the associated cloud-radiative effects observed by CERES, vertically-resolved and vertically-integrated thermodynamics using AIRS/AMSU-A observations, and atmospheric boundary layer fluxes will be demonstrated.

  8. Prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation with the POAMA dynamical prediction system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rashid, Harun A. [Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne (Australia); Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, VIC (Australia); Hendon, Harry H.; Wheeler, Matthew C.; Alves, Oscar [Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne (Australia)

    2011-02-15

    Predictions of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) are assessed using a 10-member ensemble of hindcasts from POAMA, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology coupled ocean-atmosphere seasonal prediction system. The ensemble of hindcasts was initialised from observed atmosphere and ocean initial conditions on the first of each month during 1980-2006. The MJO is diagnosed using the Wheeler-Hendon Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index, which involves projection of daily data onto the leading pair of eigenmodes from an analysis of zonal winds at 200 and 850 hPa and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) averaged about the equator. Forecasts of the two component (RMM1 and RMM2) index are quantitatively compared with observed behaviour derived from NCEP reanalyses and satellite OLR using the bivariate correlation skill, root-mean-square error (RMSE), and measures of the MJO amplitude and phase error. Comparison is also made with a simple vector autoregressive (VAR) prediction model of RMM as a benchmark. Using the full hindcast set, we find that the MJO can be predicted with the POAMA ensemble out to about 21 days as measured by the bivariate correlation exceeding 0.5 and the bivariate RMSE remaining below {proportional_to}1.4 (which is the value for a climatological forecast). The VAR model, by comparison, drops to a correlation of 0.5 by about 12 days. The prediction limit from POAMA increases by less than 2 days for times when the MJO has large initial amplitude, and has little sensitivity to the initial phase of the MJO. The VAR model, on the other hand, shows a somewhat larger increase in skill for times of strong MJO variability and has greater sensitivity to initial phase, with lower skill for times when MJO convection is developing in the Indian Ocean. The sensitivity to season is, however, greater for POAMA, with maximum skill occurring in the December-January-February season and minimum skill in June-July-August. Examination of the MJO amplitudes shows that individual

  9. The Convective Cloud Population during the Buildup of the Madden-Julian Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houze, R.; Brodzik, S.; Yuan, J.

    2011-12-01

    A-Train and TRMM satellite data have been analyzed over the Indian Ocean, in the region where Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) originates. The convective cloud population over this region evolves from suppressed conditions with environmental moisture confined to low levels and mostly shallow clouds to a deep moist layer containing deep convective towers and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Once the deep clouds become dominant the MJO disturbance propagates out of the region to the east, and the buildup cycle repeats. Understanding this buildup of the cloud population from suppressed to active over the Indian Ocean is thought to be a key to better forecasting of the MJO and all of its associated effects on weather and climate. In this study we use the TRMM satellite's Precipitation Radar (PR) data to identify isolated shallow convective rain elements, deep convective rain elements, and broad stratiform radar echoes over the Indian Ocean for a multiyear dataset. The PR data are stratified according to phases 1-8 of the MJO, as defined by Wheeler and Hendon (2004). Over the Indian Ocean phases 2-3 are active with deep convection and 5-6 are suppressed. The change in conditions from phases 5-6 to phases 1-2 is the buildup period of the MJO disturbance over the Indian Ocean. The shallow isolated rain cells are ubiquitously present in all phases, with a very slight increase in number in phases 5-6. The deep convective elements exhibit a mild variation with maximum occurrence in phases 2-3. The most pronounced variation over the Indian Ocean is in the occurrence of broad stratiform regions, which are most frequent in phases 2-3 and nearly absent in phases 5-7. These variations in the TRMM PR data are consistent with observations of MCSs with the A-Train Aqua satellite. Using the method developed by Yuan and Houze (2010) we identify MCSs objectively with a combination of algorithms applied to the MODIS brightness temperature field and AMSR-E rain data, both from the A

  10. Advection, Moistening, and Shallow-to-deep Convection Transitions During the Initiation and Propagation of Madden-Julian Oscillation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hagos, Samson M. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Feng, Zhe [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Landu, Kiranmayi [Indian Inst. of Technology (IIT), Bhubaneswar (India); Long, Charles N. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2014-09-11

    Using observations from the 2011 AMIE/DYNAMO field campaign over the Indian Ocean and a high-resolution regional model simulation, the processes that lead to the rapid shallow-to-deep convection transitions associated with the initiation and eastward propagation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) are examined. By tracking the evolution of the depth of several thousand individual model simulated precipitation features, the role of and the processes that control the observed midtropospheric moisture buildup ahead of the detection of deep convection are quantified at large and convection scales. The frequency of shallow-to-deep convection transitions is found to be sensitive to this midlevel moisture and large-scale uplift. This uplift along with the decline of large-scale drying by equator-ward advection causes the moisture buildup leading to the initiation of the MJO. Convection scale moisture variability and uplift, and large-scale zonal advection play secondary roles.

  11. Identifying a key physical factor sensitive to the performance of Madden-Julian oscillation simulation in climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Go-Un; Seo, Kyong-Hwan

    2018-01-01

    A key physical factor in regulating the performance of Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) simulation is examined by using 26 climate model simulations from the World Meteorological Organization's Working Group for Numerical Experimentation/Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Atmospheric System Study (WGNE and MJO-Task Force/GASS) global model comparison project. For this, intraseasonal moisture budget equation is analyzed and a simple, efficient physical quantity is developed. The result shows that MJO skill is most sensitive to vertically integrated intraseasonal zonal wind convergence (ZC). In particular, a specific threshold value of the strength of the ZC can be used as distinguishing between good and poor models. An additional finding is that good models exhibit the correct simultaneous convection and large-scale circulation phase relationship. In poor models, however, the peak circulation response appears 3 days after peak rainfall, suggesting unfavorable coupling between convection and circulation. For an improving simulation of the MJO in climate models, we propose that this delay of circulation in response to convection needs to be corrected in the cumulus parameterization scheme.

  12. Shallow-to-Deep Transition of Madden-Julian Oscillation Convection as Observed by TRMM and GPM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, W.; Rutledge, S. A.

    2015-12-01

    This study uses TRMM and GPM data to study the evolution of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) convection over the Indian Ocean (IO). Radar observations from the 2011-2012 DYNAMO field campaign in the central IO have provided rich information on the 3D structure of MJO convection, including the transition from shallow to deep convection during the MJO onset. However, DYNAMO radar measurements are limited to only three MJO events and three radar sites. In this study, the shallow to deep transition (SDT) problem and lifecycle evolution of MJO events over the IO is revisited using longer term, larger-scale TRMM and GPM data. Our analysis indicates that the TRMM and GPM satellite is able to capture the evolution of individual MJO events (e.g., precipitation) on the daily and regional (e.g., 2000 km x 2000 km) scale. We have investigated the evolution and properties of ~40 prominent MJO events in terms of precipitation amounts, three-dimensional radar reflectivity, microwave ice scattering signatures, cloud top brightness temperature, and lightning flash rates. We track the SDT time scale and lifecycle evolution of each MJO using these multiple parameters, instead of composites in previous TRMM studies. MJO events have also been examined as a function of the MJO type (e.g., duration of MJO lifecycles and MJO strength). Preliminary results show that the SDT is on the scale of 7-10 days with small variations among different MJO types. SDT trends are less well-defined by the 20 dBZ (TRMM PR) echo top height compared to lower thresholds. In contrast, the satellite IR brightness temperature (TRMM VIRS), the 12 dBZ (GPM DPR Ka-band) echo top heights, and lightning flash rate (TRMM LIS) depict the STD rather well.

  13. Heavy precipitation in the southwest of Iran: association with the Madden-Julian Oscillation and synoptic scale analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jafar Nazemosadat, M.; Shahgholian, K.

    2017-11-01

    Some important characteristics of the November-April heavy precipitation in southwestern parts of Iran and their linkages to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) were assessed for the period of 1975-2011. Daily precipitation data in nine meteorological stations spread in various parts of the study area and the corresponding MJO indices were analyzed. For each station, precipitation data were sorted in descending order and those values that fell within 5% of the highest records were categorized as the heavy precipitation. Besides this, the 10% threshold was also analyzed as an axillary assessment. The considered heavy precipitation data (5% threshold) accounted from about 26-35% of total annual precipitation. About half of the heavy precipitation occurred during December-January period and the other half distributed within the months of March, February, November and April by about 17, 14, 13and 6%, respectively. The highest frequency of heavy precipitation was related to the MJO phase 8. After this, the more frequent precipitation events were respectively associated to the phases 2, 7, 1, 6, 5 and 4 of the MJO. For the phases 1, 2, 7 and 8 frequency of the heavy precipitation statistically increased when the MJO amplitude was greater than unity. In contrast, for phases 4 and 5, heavy precipitation was generally linked to the spells that the amplitude size was lower than unity. Formation of a strong north-south oriented cold front mainly in Saudi Arabia and west-east oriented warm fronts in the southwest of Iran were realized as the key elements for initiating heavy precipitation over the study area. Although development of the Mediterranean-based cyclonic circulation is essential for the formation of these fronts, moisture transport mostly originates from northern parts of the Arabian Sea, southern parts of the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf.

  14. Enhancement of vegetation-rainfall feedbacks on the Australian summer monsoon by the Madden-Julian Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Notaro, Michael

    2018-01-01

    A regional climate modeling analysis of the Australian monsoon system reveals a substantial modulation of vegetation-rainfall feedbacks by the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), both of which operate at similar sub-seasonal time scales, as evidence that the intensity of land-atmosphere interactions is sensitive to the background atmospheric state. Based on ensemble experiments with imposed modification of northern Australian leaf area index (LAI), the atmospheric responses to LAI anomalies are composited for negative and positive modes of the propagating MJO. In the regional climate model (RCM), northern Australian vegetation feedbacks are characterized by evapotranspiration (ET)-driven rainfall responses, with the moisture feedback mechanism dominating over albedo and roughness feedback mechanisms. During November-April, both Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and RCM data reveal MJO's pronounced influence on rainfall patterns across northern Australia, tropical Indian Ocean, Timor Sea, Arafura Sea, and Gulf of Carpentaria, with the MJO dominating over vegetation feedbacks in terms of regulating monsoon rainfall variability. Convectively-active MJO phases support an enhancement of positive vegetation feedbacks on monsoon rainfall. While the MJO imposes minimal regulation of ET responses to LAI anomalies, the vegetation feedback-induced responses in precipitable water, cloud water, and rainfall are greatly enhanced during convectively-active MJO phases over northern Australia, which are characterized by intense low-level convergence and efficient precipitable water conversion. The sub-seasonal response of vegetation-rainfall feedback intensity to the MJO is complex, with significant enhancement of rainfall responses to LAI anomalies in February during convectively-active MJO phases compared to minimal modulation by the MJO during prior and subsequent calendar months.

  15. The Modulation of Tropical Storm Activity in the Western North Pacific by the Madden-Julian Oscillation in GEOS-5 AGCM Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Dongmin; Lee, Myong-In; Kim, Hye-Mi; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Yoo, Jin Ho

    2014-01-01

    This study examines the influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on tropical storm (TS) activity in the western North Pacific, using observations and GEOS-5 simulations at 50-km horizontal resolution. While GEOS-5 produces an MJO of faster propagation and weaker amplitude, it nevertheless reproduces the observed modulation of TS activity by the MJO with the highest TS genesis and increased track density in the active phases of MJO. The study suggests that the simulation of the sub-seasonal variability of TS activity could be improved by improving the simulations of the MJO in climate models.

  16. QBO/Solar Modulation of the Boreal Winter Madden-Julian Oscillation: A Prediction for the Coming Solar Minimum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hood, Lon

    2017-04-01

    The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), also known as the 30-60 day oscillation, is the strongest of the intraseasonal climate oscillations and consists of an eastward propagating pattern of alternately intense and weak tropical convection and precipitation. It has significant derivative effects on extratropical circulation and intraseasonal climate, including effects on the North Atlantic Oscillation during northern winter. It has recently been found that the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation influences the amplitude of the MJO during northern winter such that amplitudes are larger during the easterly phase (QBOE) at 50 hPa than during the westerly phase (QBOW) [Yoo and Son, GRL, 2016]. The initiating mechanism is a decrease in static stability near the tropopause under QBOE conditions resulting from relative upwelling associated with the QBO induced meridional circulation. Positive feedbacks from below further enhance the response during the northern winter season. Here, evidence is presented that the QBO modulation of the boreal winter MJO is itself modulated by the 11-year solar activity cycle. Using real-time multivariate (RMM) MJO amplitude and phase data covering the 1980-2015 period (36 years), it is found that the increase in MJO mean amplitude during December, January, and February (DJF) under QBOE conditions is especially large under solar minimum (SMIN) conditions while the decrease in MJO amplitude under QBOW conditions is largest under solar maximum (SMAX) conditions. Consistently, the DJF mean static stability calculated from ERA-Interim reanalysis data in the lowermost stratosphere over the warm pool region is especially low under QBOE/SMIN conditions and is largest under QBOW/SMAX conditions. Specifically, while the mean MJO amplitude in DJF is 33% larger in QBOE than in QBOW, it is 56% larger in QBOE/SMIN than in QBOW/SMAX. Conversely, the mean MJO amplitude in DJF is only 14% larger in QBOE/SMAX than it is in QBOW/SMIN. This dependence on the

  17. Prediction and Predictability of the Madden Julian Oscillation in the NASA GEOS-5 Seasonal-to-Subseasonal System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achuthavarier, Deepthi; Koster, Randal; Marshak, Jelena; Schubert, Siegfried; Molod, Andrea

    2018-01-01

    In this study, we examine the prediction skill and predictability of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) in a recent version of the NASA GEOS-5 atmosphere-ocean coupled model run at at 1/2 degree horizontal resolution. The results are based on a suite of hindcasts produced as part of the NOAA SubX project, consisting of seven ensemble members initialized every 5 days for the period 1999-2015. The atmospheric initial conditions were taken from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), and the ocean and the sea ice were taken from a GMAO ocean analysis. The land states were initialized from the MERRA-2 land output, which is based on observation-corrected precipitation fields. We investigated the MJO prediction skill in terms of the bivariate correlation coefficient for the real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) indices. The correlation coefficient stays at or above 0.5 out to forecast lead times of 26-36 days, with a pronounced increase in skill for forecasts initialized from phase 3, when the MJO convective anomaly is located in the central tropical Indian Ocean. A corresponding estimate of the upper limit of the predictability is calculated by considering a single ensemble member as the truth and verifying the ensemble mean of the remaining members against that. The predictability estimates fall between 35-37 days (taken as forecast lead when the correlation reaches 0.5) and are rather insensitive to the initial MJO phase. The model shows slightly higher skill when the initial conditions contain strong MJO events compared to weak events, although the difference in skill is evident only from lead 1 to 20. Similar to other models, the RMM-index-based skill arises mostly from the circulation components of the index. The skill of the convective component of the index drops to 0.5 by day 20 as opposed to day 30 for circulation fields. The propagation of the MJO anomalies over the Maritime Continent does not appear problematic in

  18. AMIE (ARM MJO Investigation Experiment): Observations of the Madden-Julian Oscillation for Modeling Studies Science Plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Long, C; Del Genio, A; Gustafson, W; Houze, R; Jakob, C; Jensen, M; Klein, S; Leung, L Ruby; Liu, X; Luke, E; May, P; McFarlane, S; Minnis, P; Schumacher, C; Vogelmann, A; Wang, Y; Wu, X; Xie, S

    2010-03-22

    Deep convection in the tropics plays an important role in driving global circulations and the transport of energy from the tropics to the mid-latitudes. Understanding the mechanisms that control tropical convection is a key to improving climate modeling simulations of the global energy balance. One of the dominant sources of tropical convective variability is the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which has a period of approximately 30–60 days. There is no agreed-upon explanation for the underlying physics that maintain the MJO. Many climate models do not show well-defined MJO signals, and those that do have problems accurately simulating the amplitude, propagation speed, and/or seasonality of the MJO signal. Therefore, the MJO is a very important modeling target for the ARM modeling community geared specifically toward improving climate models. The ARM MJO Investigation Experiment (AMIE) period coincides with a large international MJO initiation field campaign called CINDY2011 (Cooperative Indian Ocean experiment on intraseasonal variability in the Year 2011) that will take place in and around the Indian Ocean from October 2011 to January 2012. AMIE, in conjunction with CINDY2011 efforts, will provide an unprecedented data set that will allow investigation of the evolution of convection within the framework of the MJO. AMIE observations will also complement the long-term MJO statistics produced using ARM Manus data and will allow testing of several of the current hypotheses related to the MJO phenomenon. Taking advantage of the expected deployment of a C-POL scanning precipitation radar and an ECOR surface flux tower at the ARM Manus site, we propose to increase the number of sonde launches to eight per day starting in about mid-October of the field experiment year, which is climatologically a period of generally suppressed conditions at Manus and just prior to the climatologically strongest MJO period. The field experiment will last until the end of the MJO

  19. Evaluation of convection-permitting model simulations of cloud populations associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation using data collected during the AMIE/DYNAMO field campaign

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hagos, Samson M. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Feng, Zhe [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Burleyson, Casey D. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Lim, Kyo-Sun [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Long, Charles N. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wu, Di [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD (United States); Science Systems and Applications, Inc., Lanham, MD (United States); Thompson, Gregory [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2014-11-12

    Regional cloud permitting model simulations of cloud populations observed during the 2011 ARM Madden Julian Oscillation Investigation Experiment/ Dynamics of Madden-Julian Experiment (AMIE/DYNAMO) field campaign are evaluated against radar and ship-based measurements. Sensitivity of model simulated surface rain rate statistics to parameters and parameterization of hydrometeor sizes in five commonly used WRF microphysics schemes are examined. It is shown that at 2 km grid spacing, the model generally overestimates rain rate from large and deep convective cores. Sensitivity runs involving variation of parameters that affect rain drop or ice particle size distribution (more aggressive break-up process etc) generally reduce the bias in rain-rate and boundary layer temperature statistics as the smaller particles become more vulnerable to evaporation. Furthermore significant improvement in the convective rain-rate statistics is observed when the horizontal grid-spacing is reduced to 1 km and 0.5 km, while it is worsened when run at 4 km grid spacing as increased turbulence enhances evaporation. The results suggest modulation of evaporation processes, through parameterization of turbulent mixing and break-up of hydrometeors may provide a potential avenue for correcting cloud statistics and associated boundary layer temperature biases in regional and global cloud permitting model simulations.

  20. Moist static energy and the Madden-Julian oscillation: Understanding initiation, maintenance and propagation through the application of novel diagnostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolding, Brandon

    As the dominant mode of tropical intraseasonal variability, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has enormous societal impacts. Despite four decades of research motivated by these impacts, the processes that drive the initiation, maintenance and propagation of the MJO are still poorly understood. The development of large scale moisture anomalies plays an important role in many recent theories of the MJO, including moisture mode theory. This study identifies processes that support the development, maintenance and propagation of moisture anomalies associated with the MJO. A new set of objective MJO diagnostics, obtained as an extension of CEOF analysis, are introduced. These diagnostics provide useful measures of previously overlooked information yielded by CEOF analysis, including an objective measure that allows geographically disparate locations to be compared and contrasted throughout a reference MJO lifecycle. Compositing techniques based on this measure are applied to the MJO in an attempt to determine key physical processes affecting the MSE budget, identify prominent geographical variability of these processes, and highlight changes in the mean state winds and moisture field that explain this variability. The MSE budget reveals that variations in MSE associated with the MJO are largely the result of variations in column integrated moisture content (~90%), the majority of which occur between 850-500 hPa (~75%). Easterly(westerly) low level wind anomalies to the east(west) of the MJO result in a reduction(enhancement) of drying due to horizontal advection, which is only partially offset by a reduction(enhancement) of surface latent heat flux. In the deep tropics (5°N-5°S) of the eastern hemisphere, anomalous horizontal advection is primarily the result of the anomalous winds acting on the mean state moisture gradient. Over the broader tropics (15°N-15°S), the anomalous horizontal advection appears to result primarily from the modulation of synoptic scale

  1. A Madden-Julian Oscillation event remotely accelerates ocean upwelling to abruptly terminate the 1997/1998 super El Niño

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miyakawa, T.; Yashiro, H.; Suzuki, T.; Tatebe, H.; Satoh, M.

    2017-09-01

    The termination of the superintense 1997/1998 El Niño was extraordinarily abrupt. The May 1998 Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a massive complex of stormy tropical clouds, is among possible contributors to the abrupt termination. Despite having been sensationally proposed 18 years ago, the role of the MJO remained controversial and speculative because of the difficulty of sufficiently simulating the El Niño and MJO simultaneously. An ensemble simulation series using a newly developed, fully ocean-coupled version of a global cloud system resolving numerical model replicated the specific atmosphere and ocean conditions of May 1998 in unprecedented detail, extending the prediction skill of the MJO to 46 days. Simulation ensemble members with stronger MJO activities over the Maritime Continent experienced quicker sea surface temperature drop in the eastern Pacific, confirming that the easterly winds associated with the remote MJO accelerated ocean upwelling to abruptly terminate the El Niño.

  2. The self-organizing map, a new approach to apprehend the Madden-Julian Oscillation influence on the intraseasonal variability of rainfall in the southern African region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oettli, Pascal; Tozuka, Tomoki; Izumo, Takeshi; Engelbrecht, Francois A.; Yamagata, Toshio

    2014-09-01

    The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the major mode of intraseasonal variability (30-60 days) in the tropics, having large rainfall impacts globally, and possibly on southern Africa. However, the latter impact is not well understood and needs to be further explored. The life cycle of the MJO, known to be asymmetric, has been nevertheless analyzed usually through methods constrained by both linearity and orthogonality, such as empirical orthogonal function analysis. Here we explore a non-linear classification method, the self-organizing map (SOM), a type of artificial neural network used to produce a low-dimensional representation of high-dimensional datasets, to capture more accurately the life cycle of the MJO and its global impacts. The classification is applied on intraseasonal anomalies of outgoing longwave radiation within the tropical region over the 1980-2009 period. Using the SOM to describe the MJO is a new approach, complimentary to the usual real-time multivariate MJO index. It efficiently captures this propagative phenomenon and its seasonality, and is shown to provide additional temporal and spatial information on MJO activity. For each node, the subtropical convection is analyzed, with a particular focus on the southern Africa region. Results show that the convection activity over the central tropical Indian Ocean is a key factor influencing the intraseasonal convective activity over the southern African region. Enhanced (suppressed) convection over the central Indian Ocean tends to suppress (enhance) convection over the southern African region with a 10-day lag by modulating the moisture transport.

  3. Evaluation of the impacts of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on rainfall and hurricanes in Central and South America and the Atlantic Ocean using ICI-RAFT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giovannettone, J. P.

    2013-12-01

    Based on the method of Regional Frequency Analysis (RFA) and L-moments (Hosking & Wallis, 1997), a tool was developed to estimate the frequency/intensity of a rainfall event of a particular duration using ground-based rainfall observations. Some of the code used to develop this tool was taken from the FORTRAN code provided by Hosking & Wallis and rewritten in Visual Basic 2010. This tool was developed at the International Center for Integrated Water Resources Management (ICIWaRM) and is referred to as the ICIWaRM Regional Analysis of Frequency Tool (ICI-RAFT) (Giovannettone & Wright, 2012). In order to study the effectiveness of ICI-RAFT, three case studies were selected for the analysis. The studies take place in selected regions within Argentina, Nicaragua, and Venezuela. Rainfall data were provided at locations throughout each country; total rainfall for specific periods were computed and analyzed with respect to several global climate indices using lag times ranging from 1 to 6 months. Each analysis attempts to identify a global climate index capable of predicting above or below average rainfall several months in advance, qualitatively and using an equation that is developed. The index that had the greatest impact was the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation), which is the focus of the current study. The MJO is considered the largest element of intra-seasonal (30 - 90 days) variability in the tropical atmosphere and, unlike other indices, is characterized by the eastward propagation of large areas of convective anomalies near the equator, propagating from the Indian Ocean east into the Pacific Ocean. The anomalies are monitored globally using ten different indices located on lines of longitude near the equator, with seven in the eastern hemisphere and three in the western hemisphere. It has been found in previous studies that the MJO is linked to summer rainfall in Southeast China (Zhang et al., 2009) and southern Africa (Pohl et al., 2007) and to rainfall patterns

  4. Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation: Exploring key model physics in climate simulations: KEY PHYSICS IN MODELING THE MJO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jiang, Xianan [Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles California USA; Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena California USA; Waliser, Duane E. [Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles California USA; Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena California USA; Xavier, Prince K. [UK Met Office, Exeter UK; Petch, Jon [UK Met Office, Exeter UK; Klingaman, Nicholas P. [National Centre for Atmospheric Science and Department of Meteorology, University Reading, Reading UK; Woolnough, Steven J. [National Centre for Atmospheric Science and Department of Meteorology, University Reading, Reading UK; Guan, Bin [Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles California USA; Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena California USA; Bellon, Gilles [CNRM-GAME, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique/Météo-France, Toulouse France; Crueger, Traute [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg Germany; DeMott, Charlotte [Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins Colorado USA; Hannay, Cecile [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder Colorado USA; Lin, Hai [Environment Canada, Dorval Quebec Canada; Hu, Wenting [State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing China; Kim, Daehyun [Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, New York New York USA; Lappen, Cara-Lyn [Department of Atmospheric Science, Texas A& M University, College Station Texas USA; Lu, Mong-Ming [Central Weather Bureau, Taipei Taiwan; Ma, Hsi-Yen [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore California USA; Miyakawa, Tomoki [Department of Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Land Processes Research, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka Japan; Ridout, James A. [Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey California USA; Schubert, Siegfried D. [Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA GSFC, Greenbelt Maryland USA; Scinocca, John [Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, Victoria British Columbia Canada; Seo, Kyong-Hwan [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Pusan National University, Pusan South Korea; Shindo, Eiki [Climate Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba Japan; Song, Xiaoliang [Scripps Institute of Oceanography, La Jolla California USA; Stan, Cristiana [Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences, George Mason University, Fairfax Virginia USA; Tseng, Wan-Ling [University Research Center for Environmental Changes, Academia Sinica, Taipei Taiwan; Wang, Wanqiu [Climate Prediction Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction/NOAA, Camp Springs Maryland USA; Wu, Tongwen [Beijing Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing China; Wu, Xiaoqing [Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences, Iowa State University, Ames Iowa USA; Wyser, Klaus [Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrkoping Sweden; Zhang, Guang J. [Scripps Institute of Oceanography, La Jolla California USA; Zhu, Hongyan [Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne Victoria Australia

    2015-05-26

    Aimed at reducing deficiencies in representing the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) in general circulation models (GCMs), a global model evaluation project on vertical structure and physical processes of the MJO was coordinated. In this paper, results from the climate simulation component of this project are reported. It is shown that the MJO remains a great challenge in these latest generation GCMs. The systematic eastward propagation of the MJO is only well simulated in about one fourth of the total participating models. The observed vertical westward tilt with altitude of the MJO is well simulated in good MJO models but not in the poor ones. Damped Kelvin wave responses to the east of convection in the lower troposphere could be responsible for the missing MJO preconditioning process in these poor MJO models. Several process-oriented diagnostics were conducted to discriminate key processes for realistic MJO simulations. While large-scale rainfall partition and low-level mean zonal winds over the Indo-Pacific in a model are not found to be closely associated with its MJO skill, two metrics, including the low-level relative humidity difference between high- and low-rain events and seasonal mean gross moist stability, exhibit statistically significant correlations with the MJO performance. It is further indicated that increased cloud-radiative feedback tends to be associated with reduced amplitude of intraseasonal variability, which is incompatible with the radiative instability theory previously proposed for the MJO. Results in this study confirm that inclusion of air-sea interaction can lead to significant improvement in simulating the MJO.

  5. Large-Scale Oceanic Variability Associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation during the CINDY/DYNAMO Field Campaign from Satellite Observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chunzai Wang

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available During the CINDY/DYNAMO field campaign (fall/winter 2011, intensive measurements of the upper ocean, including an array of several surface moorings and ship observations for the area around 75°E–80°E, Equator-10°S, were conducted. In this study, large-scale upper ocean variations surrounding the intensive array during the field campaign are described based on the analysis of satellite-derived data. Surface currents, sea surface height (SSH, sea surface salinity (SSS, surface winds and sea surface temperature (SST during the CINDY/DYNAMO field campaign derived from satellite observations are analyzed. During the intensive observation period, three active episodes of large-scale convection associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO propagated eastward across the tropical Indian Ocean. Surface westerly winds near the equator were particularly strong during the events in late November and late December, exceeding 10 m/s. These westerlies generated strong eastward jets (>1 m/s on the equator. Significant remote ocean responses to the equatorial westerlies were observed in both Northern and Southern Hemispheres in the central and eastern Indian Oceans. The anomalous SSH associated with strong eastward jets propagated eastward as an equatorial Kelvin wave and generated intense downwelling near the eastern boundary. The anomalous positive SSH then partly propagated westward around 4°S as a reflected equatorial Rossby wave, and it significantly influenced the upper ocean structure in the Seychelles-Chagos thermocline ridge about two months after the last MJO event during the field campaign. For the first time, it is demonstrated that subseasonal SSS variations in the central Indian Ocean can be monitored by Aquarius measurements based on the comparison with in situ observations at three locations. Subseasonal SSS variability in the central Indian Ocean observed by RAMA buoys is explained by large-scale water exchanges between the Arabian

  6. Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation: Linking hindcast fidelity to simulated diabatic heating and moistening: DIABATIC PROCESSES IN MJO HINDCASTS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klingaman, Nicholas P. [National Centre for Atmospheric Science and Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading UK; Woolnough, Steven J. [National Centre for Atmospheric Science and Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading UK; Jiang, Xianan [Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles California USA; Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena California USA; Waliser, Duane [Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles California USA; Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena California USA; Xavier, Prince K. [UK Met Office, Exeter UK; Petch, Jon [UK Met Office, Exeter UK; Caian, Mihaela [Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping Sweden; Hannay, Cecile [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder Colorado USA; Kim, Daehyun [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle Washington USA; Ma, Hsi-Yen [Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore California USA; Merryfield, William J. [Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, Victoria British Columbia Canada; Miyakawa, Tomoki [Department of Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Land Process Research, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka Japan; Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, Tokyo University, Toyko Japan; Pritchard, Mike [Department of Earth System Sciences, University of California, Irvine California USA; Ridout, James A. [Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey California USA; Roehrig, Romain [CNRM-GAME, Météo-France and CNRS, Toulouse France; Shindo, Eiki [Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba Japan; Vitart, Frederic [European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading UK; Wang, Hailan [National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt Maryland USA; Cavanaugh, Nicholas R. [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla California USA; Mapes, Brian E. [Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Coral Gables Florida USA; Shelly, Ann [UK Met Office, Exeter UK; Zhang, Guang J. [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla California USA

    2015-05-26

    Many theories for the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) focus on diabatic processes, particularly the evolution of vertical heating and moistening. Poor MJO performance in weather and climate models is often blamed on biases in these processes and their interactions with the large-scale circulation. We introduce one of the three components of a model evaluation project, which aims to connect MJO fidelity in models to their representations of several physical processes, focusing on diabatic heating and moistening. This component consists of 20 day hindcasts, initialized daily during two MJO events in winter 2009–2010. The 13 models exhibit a range of skill: several have accurate forecasts to 20 days lead, while others perform similarly to statistical models (8–11 days). Models that maintain the observed MJO amplitude accurately predict propagation, but not vice versa. We find no link between hindcast fidelity and the precipitation-moisture relationship, in contrast to other recent studies. There is also no relationship between models' performance and the evolution of their diabatic heating profiles with rain rate. A more robust association emerges between models' fidelity and net moistening: the highest-skill models show a clear transition from low-level moistening for light rainfall to midlevel moistening at moderate rainfall and upper level moistening for heavy rainfall. The midlevel moistening, arising from both dynamics and physics, may be most important. Accurately representing many processes may be necessary but not sufficient for capturing the MJO, which suggests that models fail to predict the MJO for a broad range of reasons and limits the possibility of finding a panacea.

  7. Modelling the Madden Julian Oscillation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Slingo, J M; Inness, P M; Sperber, K R

    2004-05-21

    The MJO has long been an aspect of the global climate that has provided a tough test for the climate modelling community. Since the 1980s there have been numerous studies of the simulation of the MJO in atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs), ranging from Hayashi and Golder (1986, 1988) and Lau and Lau (1986), through to more recent studies such as Wang and Schlesinger (1999) and Wu et al. (2002). Of course, attempts to reproduce the MJO in climate models have proceeded in parallel with developments in our understanding of what the MJO is and what drives it. In fact, many advances in understanding the MJO have come through modeling studies. In particular, failure of climate models to simulate various aspects of the MJO has prompted investigations into the mechanisms that are important to its initiation and maintenance, leading to improvements both in our understanding of, and ability to simulate, the MJO. The initial focus of this chapter will be on modeling the MJO during northern winter, when it is characterized as a predominantly eastward propagating mode and is most readily seen in observations. Aspects of the simulation of the MJO will be discussed in the context of its sensitivity to the formulation of the atmospheric model, and the increasing evidence that it may be a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon. Later, we will discuss the challenges regarding the simulation of boreal summer intraseasonal variability, which is more complex since it is a combination of the eastward propagating MJO and the northward propagation of the tropical convergence zone. Finally some concluding remarks on future directions in modeling the MJO and its relationship with other timescales of variability in the tropics will be made.

  8. Oscilaciones y ondas

    OpenAIRE

    Gorri Ochoa, José Antonio; Toribio Millán, Eliezer; Albareda Tiana, Alfonso

    2008-01-01

    Descripció del recurs: 2 de maig de 2012 Oscilaciones y ondas quiere ser un texto que inicie al estudiante en el conocimiento del modelo ondulatorio de una manera unificada. Su nivel va algo más allá del que es habitual en una física básica universitaria, pero puede ser seguido por un alumno de primer año de universidad de una carrera técnica o científica. Su contenido teórico se complementa con ejercicios, de los que se incluye el resultado, y con ejemplos desarrollados paso a paso.

  9. Analytical probability density function for the statistics of the ENSO phenomenon: Asymmetry and power law tail

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bianucci, M.

    2016-01-01

    This letter has two main goals. The first one is to give a physically reasonable explanation for the use of stochastic models for mimicking the apparent random features of the El Ninõ-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. The second one is to obtain, from the theory, an analytical expression for the equilibrium density function of the anomaly sea surface temperature, an expression that fits the data from observations well, reproducing the asymmetry and the power law tail of the histograms of the NIÑO3 index. We succeed in these tasks exploiting some recent theoretical results of the author in the field of the dynamical origin of the stochastic processes. More precisely, we apply this approach to the celebrated recharge oscillator model (ROM), weakly interacting by a multiplicative term, with a general deterministic complex forcing (Madden-Julian Oscillations, westerly wind burst, etc.), and we obtain a Fokker-Planck equation that describes the statistical behavior of the ROM.

  10. Role of stochastic forcing in ENSO in observations and a coupled GCM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kapur, Atul; Zhang, Chidong [University of Miami, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, Miami, FL (United States); Zavala-Garay, Javier [Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences, New Brunswick, NJ (United States); Hendon, Harry H. [Bureau of Meteorology, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, VIC (Australia)

    2012-01-15

    A procedure is presented to estimate the role of atmospheric stochastic forcing (SF) in El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) simulated by a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (CGCM), in direct comparison to observations represented by a global reanalysis product. SF is extracted from the CGCM and reanalysis as surface wind anomalies linearly independent of the sea-surface temperature anomalies. Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is isolated from SF to quantify its role in ENSO. A coupled ocean-atmosphere model of intermediate complexity is forced with SF, as well as its MJO and non-MJO components, from the reanalysis and CGCM. The role of SF is estimated by comparing the original ENSO in observations and the CGCM with that reproduced by the intermediate model. ENSO statistics in both reanalysis and CGCM are better reproduced when the intermediate model is tuned to be weakly stable than unstable. The intermediate model driven by SF from the reanalysis reproduces most characteristics of observed ENSO, such as its spectrum, seasonal phase-locking, fast decorrelation of ENSO SST during boreal spring, and its lag-correlation with SF. In contrast, not all characteristics of ENSO in the CGCM are reproduced by the intermediate model when SF from the CGCM is used. The seasonal phase-locking of ENSO in the CGCM is not reproduced at all. ENSO, therefore, appears to be driven by SF to a lesser degree in the CGCM than in observations. Characteristics of observed ENSO reproduced by the intermediate model (driven by SF) can be largely attributed to the MJO; which, for instance, is responsible for the fast decorrelation of ENSO SST during boreal spring in both reanalysis and CGCM. The non-MJO component seems to be more responsible than the MJO for erroneous features of ENSO in the CGCM. (orig.)

  11. Tema 2. Oscilaciones y ondas (Curso 2010-2011)

    OpenAIRE

    Caballero Caballero, María Teresa; Espinosa Tomás, Julián; Pérez Rodríguez, Jorge; Miret Marí, Juan José

    2010-01-01

    1. Oscilaciones: movimiento armónico simple. Oscilaciones amortiguadas y forzadas. Resonancia; 2. Ondas armónicas: función y ecuación de ondas; 3. Sonido: ondas sonoras, velocidad de propagación; 4. Intensidad de las ondas. Fenómenos de propagación: reflexión, refracción y difracción; 5. Interferencias. Ondas estacionarias.

  12. Southern annular mode: tropical-extratropical interactions and impacts

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Fauchereau, N

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available In this study the authors investigate in particular its links with the Madden Julian Oscillation and ENSO, the dominant modes of tropical atmospheric variability at the intraseasonal and interannual timescales, respectively. It is showed here that...

  13. Primeros resultados sobre el estudio de oscilaciones no radiales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Córsico, A.; Benvenuto, O. G.

    En el Observatorio de La Plata se ha comenzado a elaborar un código de pulsaciones el cual resuelve el problema de las oscilaciones no radiales en el caso adiabático. Dicho código está basado en la técnica de diferencias finitas ampliamente usado en cálculos de estructura y evolución estelar. En este trabajo se presentan los primeros resultados encontrados aplicando el código mencionado al caso de una polítropa de índice n=3. Se presentan los valores de las autofrecuencias y las autofunciones para diferentes modos de pulsación de dicha configuración politrópica. En un futuro próximo, se aplicará este programa al estudio de las pulsaciones no radiales de estrellas enanas blancas.

  14. Intraseasonal response of the northern Indian Ocean coastal waveguide to the Madden-Julian Oscillation

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Vialard, J.; Shenoi, S.S.C.; McCreary, J.P.; Shankar, D.; Durand, F.; Fernando, V.; Shetye, S.R.

    . These observations can be interpreted within the framework of linear wave theory. At 15 degrees N, the minimum period for planetary waves is approx. 90 day, meaning that intraseasonal energy is largely trapped at the coast in the form of poleward-propagating Kelvin...

  15. Climate change and the Madden-Julian Oscillation: A vertically resolved weak temperature gradient analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolding, Brandon O.; Maloney, Eric D.; Henderson, Stephanie; Branson, Mark

    2017-03-01

    WTG balance is used to examine how changes in the moist thermodynamic structure of the tropics affect the MJO in two simulations of the Superparameterized Community Earth System Model (SP-CESM), one at preindustrial (PI) levels of CO2 and one where CO2 levels have been quadrupled (4×CO2). While MJO convective variability increases considerably in the 4×CO2 simulation, the dynamical response to this convective variability decreases. Increased MJO convective variability is shown to be a robust response to the steepening vertical moisture gradient, consistent with the findings of previous studies. The steepened vertical moisture gradient allows MJO convective heating to drive stronger variations in large-scale vertical moisture advection, supporting destabilization of the MJO. The decreased dynamical response to MJO convective variability is shown to be a consequence of increased static stability, which allows weaker variations in large-scale vertical velocity to produce sufficient adiabatic cooling to balance variations in MJO convective heating. This weakened dynamical response results in a considerable reduction of the MJO's ability to influence the extratropics, which is closely tied to the strength of its associated divergence. A composite lifecycle of the MJO was used to show that northern hemisphere extratropical 525 hPa geopotential height anomalies decreased by 27% in the 4×CO2 simulation, despite a 22% increase in tropical convective heating associated with the MJO. Results of this study suggest that while MJO convective variability may increase in a warming climate, the MJO's role in "bridging weather and climate" in the extratropics may not.

  16. Simplified metrics for the identification of the Madden-Julian oscillation in models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sperber, Kenneth R. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Kim, Daehyun [Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States)

    2012-07-01

    We propose simplified metrics to evaluate the fidelity with which the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is simulated in climate models. These metrics are based on lag correlation analysis of principal component time series (PCs). The PCs are obtained by projecting simulated 20–100 day bandpass filtered daily outgoing longwave radiation onto the two leading empirical orthogonal functions of observed MJO variability. The simplified MJO metrics, the maximum positive correlation and time lag at which it occurs, provide consistent information relative to more complex diagnostics developed by the Madden–Julian Oscillation Working Group (CLIVAR MJOWG) and by Kim et al.

  17. Informativeness of Wind Data in Linear Madden-Julian Oscillation Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-08-15

    rain are of special interest for impacts, so we will score all hindcasts in terms of OLR anomaly (OLR’). The goals of this article are: (1) to...statistical forecasting issues Linear inverse modeling (Penland and Sardeshmukh, 1995) is a generalization of the simple idea that anomalies in a stationary...predicting anomalous clouds and rain (OLR), the wind information may help the system avoid being misinterpreted by happenstance occurrences of MJO-shaped

  18. Oscilaciones acústicas y el espectro de potencias

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Castañeda

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available En el paradigma actual de la cosmología, el modelo que goza de mayor aceptación, dadas las pruebas observacionales, es conocido co- mo ΛCDM (Cosmic Microwave Background. Este modelo está dominado principalmente por dos constituyentes de los cuales la física sabe muy poco de ellos. La energía oscura, con un 70 %, es la principal componente y la causante de la expansión acelerada del Universo, mientras que la materia oscura, con un 25 % aproximadamente, es la componente principal de las estructuras auto-gravitantes. En mucho menos proporción se tiene la com- ponente bariónica, la principal constituyente de las estrellas y por ende de la parte luminosa de las galaxias. Otras especies con menor proporción son las constituyentes relativistas entre las cuales se tienen los neutrinos y fotones. Después del periodo de expansión acelerada del universo, de- nominado periodo inflacionario, debido a las altas temperaturas el plasma primordial constituído de especies relativistas fué el componente dominante en el Universo. En dicho plasma, la materia bariónica se encuentra ionizada y se acopla a la radiación via dispersión de Compton. Tal plasma caliente desarrolla inestabilidades manifiestas en ondas de sonido y rarefacciones. Estas perturbaciones son soportadas hasta cuando el Universo en su ex- pansión se ha enfriado lo suficiente para formar materia neutra. Después de esta recombinación, la radiación se desacopla formando el mar de fotones de CMB. Junto con perturbaciones métricas colocadas por inflación en el potencial de la materia oscura, las oscilaciones del plasma quedaron im- presas tanto en la temperatura de CMB como en el espectro de potencias de materia. Aquí se muestra como el Weak Lensing puede ser usado para estudiar estas oscilaciones.

  19. Extreme weather events. [ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keppenne, Christian L.; Ghil, Michael

    1992-01-01

    Models that try to forecast the detailed geographical distribution of oceanic and atmospheric variables affected by the ENSO cycle are briefly discussed. Combinations of singular-spectrum analysis and the maximum entropy method that hold promise for predicting the ENSO cycle 2-3 yrs in advance are addressed.

  20. Oscilaciones de un sistema dinámico no lineal analizando sus bifurcaciones Oscilaciones de un sistema dinámico no lineal analizando sus bifurcaciones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel Guía Calderón

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available En este trabajo se analizan las oscilaciones de un sistema eléctrico de potencia acopladocon un horno de arco eléctrico. Se presentan los diagramas de bifurcación y la estabilidadde los puntos de equilibrio. Los puntos críticos de estabilidad y las zonas de operación seanalizan en el estado oscilatorio, se obtiene que en el voltaje interno del generador síncronose presenta el parámetro de bifurcación.In this paper the oscillations of an electrical power system coupled to an electric arcfurnace are analyzed. Bifurcation diagrams and the stability of the equilibrium pointsare presented. The critical stability points and the operating zones are analyzed in theoscillatory state, and it is found that the internal voltage of the synchronous generatorshows the bifurcation parameter.

  1. Using CYGNSS to Observe Convectively Driven Near-Surface Winds in Tropical Precipitation Systems During Madden-Julian Oscillation Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, Timothy J.; Li, Xuanli; Mecikalski, John; Hoover, Kacie; Castillo, Tyler; Chronis, Themis

    2017-01-01

    The Cyclone Global Navigation OKLMA 1411 UTC Satellite System (CYGNSS) is a multi-satellite constellation that launched 15 December 2016. The primary objective of CYGNSS is to use bistatic Global Positioning System (GPS) reflectometry to accurately measure near-surface wind speeds within the heavily raining inner core of tropical cyclones. CYGNSS also features rapid revisit times over a given region in the tropics - ranging from several minutes to a few hours, depending on the constellation geometry at that time. Despite the focus on tropical cyclones, the ability of CYGNSS to provide rapid updates of winds, unbiased by the presence of precipitation, has many other potential applications related to general tropical convection.

  2. Impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on the intraseasonal forecast skill of the North Atlantic Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Hai; Brunet, Gilbert; Fontecilla, Juan Sebastian

    2010-10-01

    Using the output of the intraseasonal hindcast experiment conducted with the GEM global atmospheric model during 24 extended winters, the association between the forecast skill of the NAO and the amplitude and phase of the MJO in the initial condition is investigated. It is found that with a lead time up to about one month the NAO forecast skill is significantly influenced by the existence of the MJO signal in the initial condition. A strong MJO leads to a better NAO forecast skill than a weak MJO. An initial state with an MJO phase corresponding to a dipole tropical convection anomaly in the eastern Indian Ocean and western Pacific favors a more skillful NAO forecast than an MJO phase with a single tropical convection anomaly near 120°E. These results indicate that it is possible to increase the skill of the NAO and the extratropical surface air temperature intraseasonal forecast with an improved tropical initialization, a better prediction of the tropical MJO and a better representation of the tropical-extratropical interaction in dynamical models.

  3. The Modulation and Decadal Change of Madden-Julian Oscillation on Tropical Cyclone in the Western North Pacific Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, W.

    2014-12-01

    This study focuses on the climatological relationship between the Modden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Tropical Cyclone (TC) activity in the Western North Pacific (WNP) and its decadal variability. Based on the knowledge of the modulation of MJO on TC in WNP, a set of data including the RMM(Real-time Multivariate MJO)index from RMRC(bureau of meteorology)of the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research,the best tracks from the Navy Joint Typhoon Warming Center(JTWC),daily data of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and the ECMWF ERA-interim reanalysis were used.The result shows that TC frequency in WNP exhibited a statistically significant decrease during the period of 1998-2010, comparing to the period of 1979-1997.The decrease on TC frequency in WNP mainly occured during MJO active phases 4,5,6,and 7. In further investigation on comparison of cycle days of MJO, duration of MJO active phases (4,5,6,and 7),low-frequency wind at 850hPa, large-scale convection circulation and vatiability of Surface Sea Temperatures (SST) and Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) in MJO active phases between 1979-1997 and 1998-2010, we found that: during 1998-2010,cycle days of MJO and duration of MJO active phases exhibited a significant decrease; low-frequency wind at 850hPa showed an eastern-wind transition; convective areas in MJO active phases decreased and anormaly of its SST were more negative. These may be reasons of difference of TC frequency in the period of 1979-1997 and 1998-2010.

  4. Multiscale Asymptotics for the Skeleton of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Tropical-Extratropical Interactions (Open Access)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-11-30

    Mathematics of Climate and Weather Forecasting 2015 Journal article Shengqian Chen*, Andrew J. Majda, and Samuel N. Stechmann Multiscale asymptotics...Ly)dy, c8 = ∫∞ −∞ Φ0Φ ′ 2 sin(Ly)dy, c9 = ∫∞ −∞ Φ ′ 0Φ2 sin(Ly)dy, c10 = ∫∞ −∞ Φ 2 0Φ2dy, (A.4) Notice that the equality c8 + c9 = c3 helps to conduct

  5. Aplicación del control inteligente en el amortiguamiento de oscilaciones usando FACTS (STATCOM y SVC)

    OpenAIRE

    Bedoya Londoño, Andrea

    2014-01-01

    En este trabajo se describe el desarrollo de un controlador de oscilaciones, tanto para el STATCOM como para el SVC, usando algunos métodos de control inteligente. Se presenta el desarrollo de un controlador difuso sintonizado con técnicas de optimización, tales como, AG, PSO y COA como una opción moderna que permite encontrar los mejores parámetros del control difuso aplicado a los dispositivos FACTS (STATCOM Y SVC), con el fin de lograr amortiguar las oscilaciones del sistema de potencia y ...

  6. Precipitation-Based ENSO Indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adler, Robert; Curtis, Scott

    1998-01-01

    In this study gridded observed precipitation data sets are used to construct rainfall-based ENSO indices. The monthly El Nino and La Nina Indices (EI and LI) measure the steepest zonal gradient of precipitation anomalies between the equatorial Pacific and the Maritime Continent. This is accomplished by spatially averaging precipitation anomalies using a spatial boxcar filter, finding the maximum and minimum averages within a Pacific and Maritime Continent domain for each month, and taking differences. EI and LI can be examined separately or combined to produce one ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI). ESPI is well correlated with traditional sea surface temperature and pressure indices, leading Nino 3.4. One advantage precipitation indices have over more conventional indices, is describing the strength and position of the Walker circulation. Examples are given of tracking the impact of ENSO events on the tropical precipitation fields.

  7. El efecto hall cuántico y las oscilaciones Shubnikov-de Haas en el gas de electrones bidimensional

    OpenAIRE

    Urbina Yeregui, Antonio

    1996-01-01

    Se ha medido experimentalmente el efecto hall cuántico y las oscilaciones shubnikov-de-haas en heteroestructuras de semiconductores. La medida se realiza a altos campos magneticos (hasta 12t) y bajas temperaturas (desde 1.2k) utilizando la técnica de las cuatro puntas. Las muestras son heteroestructuras pseudomorficas en las que el canal es un pozo cuántico de . Se han medido muestras con diferentes tipos de dopaje y anchura del pozo, provistas de puerta y con forma de barra hall. Se miden la...

  8. Modal analysis of electromechanical oscillations in electrical power systems; Analisis modal de oscilaciones electromecanicas en sistemas electricos de potencia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Calderon-Guizar, J.G [Instituto de Investigaciones Electricas, Cuernavaca, Morelos (Mexico)]. E-mail: jgcg@iie.org.mx

    2008-10-15

    The presence of electromechanical oscillations in any electrical power system is a typical characteristic of this kind of systems. Provided the damping associated with these oscillations lies above of a minimum specified value, the occurrence of these oscillations is not considered as a threat to the system operation. This paper focuses the attention on the application of modal analysis for assessing the dynamical behavior of a power system subjected to small disturbances for different operating conditions and transmission system topologies, as well. The reported results indicate, that modal analysis enables a straight identification of the causes that contribute negatively to the damping of the electromechanical modes. [Spanish] La presencia de oscilaciones electromecanicas en cualquier Sistema Electrico de Potencia (SEP) es una caracteristica propia de estos sistemas. Mientras el amortiguamiento asociado con este tipo de oscilaciones se encuentre dentro de los limites considerados como aceptables para la operacion continua de este tipo de sistemas, el surgimiento de estas no se considera una amenaza para la operacion segura del SEP. El presente articulo, centra su atencion en la aplicacion del analisis modal para evaluar el comportamiento dinamico de un SEP ante la ocurrencia de disturbios de magnitud pequena para diferentes topologias y condiciones de operacion. Los resultados reportados indican, que la aplicacion del analisis modal permite la identificacion directa de las causas que contribuyen en forma negativa al amortiguamiento asociado con los modos electromecanicos, asi como la ubicacion mas adecuada de controles que contribuyan a mejorar el amortiguamiento de los mismos.

  9. New Methodology of ENSO Forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feigin, A. M.; Gavrilov, A.; Mukhin, D.; Loskutov, E.; Seleznev, A.

    2016-12-01

    We describe methodology of ENSO forecast based on data-driven construction of evolution operator of underlying climate sub-system. The methodology is composed of two key algorithms: (i) space-distributed data preparation aiming to reduce data dimensionality with minimal loss of information about system's dynamics, and (ii) construction of operator that reproduces evolution of the system in reduced data space. The first algorithm combines several known data preprocessing techniques: decomposition via empirical orthogonal function basis, its spatiotemporal generalization as well as singular value decomposition techniques. The second algorithm supposes construction of evolution operator in the form of random dynamical system realized as nonlinear random mapping; the last is parameterized by artificial neural networks. General Bayesian approach is applied for mutual searching optimal parameters of both algorithms: optimal dimensionality of reduced data space and optimal complexity of the evolution operator. Abilities of suggested methodology will be demonstrated via reproduction and forecast of different ENSO related indexes including comparison of prediction skill of new methodology with power of other existing techniques. This research was supported by the Government of the Russian Federation (Agreement No.14.Z50.31.0033 with the Institute of Applied Physics RAS).

  10. Large-Scale Oceanic Variability Associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation during the CINDY/DYNAMO Field Campaign from Satellite Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-04-29

    with a collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number. PLEASE DO NOT RETURN YOUR FORM TO THE ABOVE...needed for climate studies, which is a collaborative effort between NASA and the Argentinian Space Agency Comisiön Nacional de Actividades ...models are necessary to examine further details of the processes that control the SST variation in this area. Remote Sens. 2013, 5 2081 Figure 7

  11. Surface Wind and Upper-Ocean Variability Associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation Simulated by the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-07-01

    Assimilation System ( MODAS ; Fox et al. 2002), while there is no data assimilation in the ocean component of COAMPS. The RAMA buoy data show that...M. Lee, 2002: The Modular Ocean Data Analysis System ( MODAS ). J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 19, 240–252. Gentemann, C. L., C. J. Donlon, A. C. Stuart

  12. An ENSO beginning in the year 2000?

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gopinathan, C.K.

    Several models have been developed over the last few decades to predict the advent of new ENSO events several months in advance of the actual event. None of the models have predicted a warm event beginning by the year 2000. Positive SST anomalies...

  13. Present El Niño-ENSO events and past Super-ENSO events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    1993-01-01

    Full Text Available LES ÉVÉNEMENTS ENSO ACTUELS ET LES ANCIENS ÉVÉNEMENTS SUPER-ENSO. Les événements ENSO actuels et les anciens événements Super-ENSO représentent la redistribution d’énergie et de masse dans le système terrestre, due à l’échange de momentum angulaire entre la Terre “solide” et l’hydrosphère. Les événements El Niño-ENSO actuels montrent une corrélation claire avec des décélérations interannuelles de la vitesse de rotation de la Terre: la durée du jour (LOD augmente. Bien qu’il soit généralement considéré que ces changements de rotation sont causés par l’échange de momentum angulaire avec l’atmosphère, nous démontrons ici qu’une grande partie, peut-être la majeure partie, des variations du LOD sont causées en réalité par l’échange du momentum angulaire entre la terre “solide” et l’hydrosphère dans un systéme couplé de régénération. Ce mécanisme agit aussi sur des échelles de temps qui vont de la décennie au siècle, provoquant des événements Super-ENSO. Plusieurs de ces événements ont été identifiés au cours de l’Holocène. Un événement de plus grande envergure a eu lieu à l’ère médiévale. Au cours de la période qui va de 13.5 à 9.5 Ka, les changements importants peuvent représenter des événements Mega-ENSO. Au cours des âges glaciaires, avec une vitesse de rotation plus grande, il est probable que les événements ENSO-El Niño furent absents. Dans les enregistrements du passé, de courte durée, les empreintes d’événements Super-ENSO doivent étre beaucoup plus fréquents que ceux de véritables ENSO interannuels, simplement parce que ces derniers sont trop brefs et généralement trop légers. ACTUALES EVENTOS EL NIÑO-ENSO Y ANTIGUOS EVENTOS SUPER-ENSO. Los actuales eventos ENSO y los antiguos eventos Super-ENSO representan la redistribución de energía y masa en el sistema terrestre, debido al intercambio de momento angular entre la Tierra “sólida” y la

  14. A unified proxy for ENSO and PDO variability since 1650

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. McGregor

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In this manuscript we have attempted to consolidate the common signal in previously defined proxy reconstructions of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation into one individual proxy titled the Unified ENSO Proxy (UEP. While correlating well with the majority of input reconstructions, the UEP provides better representation of observed indices of ENSO, discrete ENSO events and documented historical chronologies of ENSO than any of these input ENSO reconstructions. Further to this, the UEP also provides a means to reconstruct the PDO/IPO multi-decadal variability of the Pacific Ocean as the low-pass filtered UEP displays multi-decadal variability that is consistent with the 20th century variability of the PDO and IPO. The UEP is then used to describe changes in ENSO variability which have occurred since 1650 focusing on changes in ENSOs variance, multi-year ENSO events, PDO-like multi-decadal variability and the effects of volcanic and solar forcing on ENSO. We find that multi-year El Niño events similar to the 1990–1995 event have occurred several times over the last 3 1/2 centuries. Consistent with earlier studies we find that volcanic forcing can induce a statistically significant change in the mean state of ENSO in the year of the eruption and a doubling of the probability of an El Niño (La Niña event occurring in the year of (three years after the eruption.

  15. Oscilaciones de Potencia, Tensión y Corriente en Unidades de Generación Distribuida: Power, Voltage and Current Oscillations in Distributed Generation Units

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcos Alberto de Armas Teyra

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available En las plantas de generación distribuidas accionadas por motores reciprocantes es necesario conocer las fluctuaciones de tensión, corriente y potencia para evaluar la calidad de la energía que entregan estos grupos electrógenos y como criterio de diagnóstico técnico. Las causas de estas fluctuaciones son diversas. La fundamental se debe a la presencia de oscilaciones forzadas producidas por el momento irregular de los motores primarios. Otras razones se encuentran en las excentricidades constructivas, el desbalance de corriente, los armónicos espaciales y de tiempo, la variación de la configuración del sistema, etc. En este trabajo fueron evaluadas satisfactoriamente las oscilaciones de una máquina conectada a la red mediante la instalación de un analizador de redes de 32 cortes por ciclo a la salida del generador de una de estas unidades. Se expone como caso de estudio las oscilaciones observadas en un generador de 425 kVA480 V accionado por un motor Diesel de seis cilindros y cuatro tiempos en la Provincia de Cienfuegos, Cuba.In distributed and standby power plants driven by reciprocating motors, is important to know the voltage, current and power oscillation as a delivery power quality and diagnostic criteria. There are several oscillation causes. The fundamental is due to the irregular torque of primary motors. Other causes are due to constructive eccentricities, current unbalance, time and spatial harmonics, changes in systems configuration, etc. In this paper the fundamental oscillations of a grid connected machine were evaluated with a power analyzer installed in one generating power plant. As a case there are shown the observed oscillations in 425 kVA generator driven by a four times, six cylinders Diesel motor in Cienfuegos Province of Cuba.

  16. Oscilaciones de Potencia, Tensión y Corriente en Unidades de Generación Distribuida; Power, Voltage and Current Oscillations in Distributed Generation Units

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcos Alberto de Armas Teyra

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available En las plantas de generación distribuidas accionadas por motores reciprocantes es necesario conocer las fluctuaciones de tensión, corriente y potencia para evaluar la calidad de la energía que entregan estos grupos electrógenos y como criterio de diagnóstico técnico. Las causas de estas fluctuaciones son diversas. La fundamental se debe a la presencia de oscilaciones forzadas producidas por el momento irregular de los motores primarios. Otras razones se encuentran en las excentricidades constructivas, el desbalance de corriente, los armónicos espaciales y de tiempo, la variación de la configuración del sistema, etc. En este trabajo fueron evaluadas satisfactoriamente las oscilaciones de una máquina conectada a la red mediante la instalación de un analizador de redes de 32 cortes por ciclo a la salida del generador de una de estas unidades. Se expone como caso de estudio las oscilaciones observadas en un generador de 425 kVA480 V accionado por un motor Diesel de seis cilindros y cuatro tiempos en la Provincia de Cienfuegos, Cuba.  In distributed and standby power plants driven by reciprocating motors, is important to know the voltage, current and power oscillation as a delivery power quality and diagnostic criteria. There are several oscillation causes. The fundamental is due to the irregular torque of primary motors. Other causes are due to constructive eccentricities, current unbalance, time and spatial harmonics, changes in systems configuration, etc. In this paper the fundamental oscillations of a grid connected machine were evaluated with a power analyzer installed in one generating power plant. As a case there are shown the observed oscillations in 425 kVA generator driven by a four times, six cylinders Diesel motor in Cienfuegos Province of Cuba.

  17. ENSO nonlinearity in a warming climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boucharel, J. [Universite de Toulouse; UPS (OMP-PCA), LEGOS, Toulouse (France); University of Hawai' i at Manoa, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, Department of Meteorology, Honolulu, HI (United States); Dewitte, B.; Penhoat, Y. du [Universite de Toulouse; UPS (OMP-PCA), LEGOS, Toulouse (France); IRD, LEGOS, Toulouse (France); Garel, B. [Universite de Toulouse, INP-ENSEEIHT, Institut de Mathematiques de Toulouse (UPS), Toulouse (France); Yeh, S.W. [Hanyang University, Department of Environmental Marine Science, Ansan (Korea, Republic of); Kug, J.S. [Korea Ocean Research and Development Institute, Ansan (Korea, Republic of)

    2011-11-15

    The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is known as the strongest natural inter-annual climate signal, having widespread consequences on the global weather, climate, ecology and even on societies. Understanding ENSO variations in a changing climate is therefore of primordial interest to both the climate community and policy makers. In this study, we focus on the change in ENSO nonlinearity due to climate change. We first analysed high statistical moments of observed Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) timeseries of the tropical Pacific based on the measurement of the tails of their Probability Density Function (PDF). This allows defining relevant metrics for the change in nonlinearity observed over the last century. Based on these metrics, a zonal ''see-saw'' (oscillation) in nonlinearity patterns is highlighted that is associated with the change in El Nino characteristics observed in recent years. Taking advantage of the IPCC database and the different projection scenarios, it is showed that changes in El Nino statistics (or ''flavour'') from a present-day climate to a warmer climate are associated with a significant change in nonlinearity patterns. In particular, in the twentieth century climate, the ''conventional'' eastern Pacific El Nino relates more to changes in nonlinearity than to changes in mean state whereas the central Pacific El Nino (or Modoki El Nino) is more sensitive to changes in mean state than to changes in nonlinearity. An opposite behaviour is found in a warmer climate, namely the decreasing nonlinearity in the eastern Pacific tends to make El Nino less frequent but more sensitive to mean state, whereas the increasing nonlinearity in the west tends to trigger Central Pacific El Nino more frequently. This suggests that the change in ENSO statistics due to climate change might result from changes in the zonal contrast of nonlinearity characteristics across the tropical Pacific. (orig.)

  18. Importance of convective parameterization in ENSO predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Jieshun; Kumar, Arun; Wang, Wanqiu; Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Huang, Bohua; Balmaseda, Magdalena A.

    2017-06-01

    This letter explored the influence of atmospheric convection scheme on El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions using a set of hindcast experiments. Specifically, a low-resolution version of the Climate Forecast System version 2 is used for 12 month hindcasts starting from each April during 1982-2011. The hindcast experiments are repeated with three atmospheric convection schemes. All three hindcasts apply the identical initialization with ocean initial conditions taken from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and atmosphere/land initial states from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Assessments indicate a substantial sensitivity of the sea surface temperature prediction skill to the different convection schemes, particularly over the eastern tropical Pacific. For the Niño 3.4 index, the anomaly correlation skill can differ by 0.1-0.2 at lead times longer than 2 months. Long-term simulations are further conducted with the three convection schemes to understand the differences in prediction skill. By conducting heat budget analyses for the mixed-layer temperature anomalies, it is suggested that the convection scheme having the highest skill simulates stronger and more realistic coupled feedbacks related to ENSO. Particularly, the strength of the Ekman pumping feedback is better represented, which is traced to more realistic simulation of surface wind stress. Our results imply that improving the mean state simulations in coupled (ocean-atmosphere) general circulation model (e.g., ameliorating the Intertropical Convergence Zone simulation) might further improve our ENSO prediction capability.

  19. Revisiting ENSO/Indian Ocean Dipole phase relationships

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuecker, Malte F.; Timmermann, Axel; Jin, Fei-Fei; Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu; Zhang, Wenjun; Wittenberg, Andrew T.; Widiasih, Esther; Zhao, Sen

    2017-03-01

    Here we show that the characteristics of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), such as its power spectrum and phase relationship with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), can be succinctly explained by ENSO combination mode (C-mode) wind and heat flux forcing together with a seasonal modulation of the air/sea coupled Indian Ocean (IO) Bjerknes feedback. This model explains the observed high-frequency near-annual IOD variability in terms of deterministic ENSO/annual cycle interactions. ENSO-independent IOD events can be understood as a seasonally modulated ocean response to white noise atmospheric forcing. Under this new physical null hypothesis framework, IOD predictability is determined by both ENSO predictability and the ENSO signal-to-noise ratio. We further emphasize that lead/lag correlations between different climate variables are easily misinterpreted when not accounting properly for the seasonal modulation of the underlying climate phenomena.

  20. ENSO flavours during the pre-instrumental period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freund, Mandy; Henley, Benjamin; Karoly, David

    2017-04-01

    El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the largest driver of interannual variability in the global climate system. Recent studies have identified major changes in the frequency and intensity of ENSO events. Under greenhouse warming scenarios an increase in frequency of extreme El Nino and La Nina events is projected. Recent work has identified different 'flavours' of ENSO, for example, classical cold-tongue ENSO events and non-conventional El Niño definitions like the Central Pacific, Modoki and warm pool El Niño events. A critical question is to understand the dynamical aspects of the variety of ENSO events in a changing climate prior to the instrumental period. We present the first sub-seasonally resolved reconstruction of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events based on a multi-century seasonally-resolved network of tropical coral records. The comparison with instrumental observations and existing ENSO reconstructions exhibits high agreement on inter-annual timescales and highlights the merit of seasonally-resolved proxies in studying ENSO dynamics. The reconstructions are used to explore seasonal to multi-decadal time scale variability and trends in frequency, duration and propagation direction of ENSO events.

  1. Stora Enso Timber rajab Imaverre uue tehase Jaapani turu tarvis / Väinu Rozental

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Rozental, Väinu, 1957-

    2004-01-01

    Metsatööstuskontsern Stora Enso Timber ehitab Imaverre liimpuidutehase, mis hakkab tootma liimpuittalasid peamiselt Jaapani turu jaoks. Diagramm. Lisa: Pankurid peavad Stora Enso sammu Eestile kasulikuks

  2. Study of the global and regional climatic impacts of ENSO ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), Ministry of Climate Change, Islamabad, Pakistan. ... decades resulting in a need to study climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude both at global and regional scales. Hence ... positive phase of ENSO (El Ni˜no) overall strengthens Hadley cell and a reverse is true for the La Ni˜na.

  3. Future Changes to ENSO Temperature and Precipitation Teleconnections Under Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, S.; McGregor, S.; Sen Gupta, A.; England, M. H.

    2016-12-01

    As the dominant mode of interannual climate variability, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulates temperature and rainfall globally, additionally contributing to weather extremes. Anthropogenic climate change has the potential to alter the strength and frequency of ENSO and may also alter ENSO-driven atmospheric teleconnections, affecting ecosystems and human activity in regions far removed from the tropical Pacific. State-of-art climate models exhibit considerable disagreement in projections of future changes in ENSO sea surface temperature variability. Despite this uncertainty, recent model studies suggest that the precipitation response to ENSO will be enhanced in the tropical Pacific under future warming, and as such the societal impacts of ENSO will increase. Here we use temperature and precipitation data from an ensemble of 41 CMIP5 models to show where ENSO teleconnections are being enhanced and dampened in a high-emission future scenario (RCP8.5) focusing on the changes that are occurring over land areas globally. Although there is some spread between the model projections, robust changes with strong ensemble agreement are found in certain locations, including amplification of teleconnections in southeast Australia, South America and the Maritime Continent. Our results suggest that in these regions future ENSO events will lead to more extreme temperature and rainfall responses.

  4. Tree growth response to ENSO in Durango, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pompa-García, Marin; Miranda-Aragón, Liliana; Aguirre-Salado, Carlos Arturo

    2015-01-01

    The dynamics of forest ecosystems worldwide have been driven largely by climatic teleconnections. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest interannual variation of the Earth's climate, affecting the regional climatic regime. These teleconnections may impact plant phenology, growth rate, forest extent, and other gradual changes in forest ecosystems. The objective of this study was to investigate how Pinus cooperi populations face the influence of ENSO and regional microclimates in five ecozones in northwestern Mexico. Using standard dendrochronological techniques, tree-ring chronologies (TRI) were generated. TRI, ENSO, and climate relationships were correlated from 1950-2010. Additionally, multiple regressions were conducted in order to detect those ENSO months with direct relations in TRI ( p Mexico and radial growth of P. cooperi populations has been driven largely by positive ENSO values (El Niño episodes).

  5. Heartbeat of the Southern Oscillation explains ENSO climatic resonances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruun, John T.; Allen, J. Icarus; Smyth, Timothy J.

    2017-08-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) nonlinear oscillator phenomenon has a far reaching influence on the climate and human activities. The up to 10 year quasi-period cycle of the El Niño and subsequent La Niña is known to be dominated in the tropics by nonlinear physical interaction of wind with the equatorial waveguide in the Pacific. Long-term cyclic phenomena do not feature in the current theory of the ENSO process. We update the theory by assessing low (>10 years) and high (type="synopsis">type="main">Plain Language SummaryThe Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) nonlinear oscillator phenomenon has a far reaching influence on the climate and our human activities. This work can help predict both long-term and short-term future ENSO events and to assess the risk of future climate hysteresis changes: is the elastic band that regulates the ENSO climate breaking? We update the current theory of the ENSO process with a sophisticated analysis approach (Dominant Frequency State Analysis) to include long-term oscillations (up to 200 years) as well as tropical and extratropical interaction dynamics. The analysis uses instrumental and paleoproxy data records in combination with theoretical models of ENSO. This fundamental result that shows the ENSO phenomenon has a stable tropical Pacific attractor with El Niño and La Niña phases, tropical and extratropical coupling and an intermittency or longer-term form of chaos. We call this attractor the Heartbeat of the Southern Oscillation as the phenomenon is measurable in the Southern Oscillation. We predict future ENSO states based on a stable hysteresis scenario of short-term and long-term ENSO oscillations over the next century.

  6. DMS role in ENSO cycle in the tropics: DMS Role in ENSO Cycle in Tropics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Li [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Now at Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine California USA; Cameron-Smith, Philip [Atmospheric, Earth and Energy Division, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore California USA; Russell, Lynn M. [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Ghan, Steven J. [Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Liu, Ying [Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Elliott, Scott [Climate Ocean Sea Ice Modeling, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos New Mexico USA; Yang, Yang [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Lou, Sijia [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Lamjiri, Maryam A. [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Manizza, Manfredi [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA

    2016-11-16

    We examined the multiyear mean and variability of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) and its relationship to sulfate aerosols, as well as cloud microphysical and radiative properties. We conducted a 150 year simulation using preindustrial conditions produced by the Community Earth System Model embedded with a dynamic DMS module. The model simulated the mean spatial distribution of DMS emissions and burden, as well as sulfur budgets associated with DMS, SO2, H2SO4, and sulfate that were generally similar to available observations and inventories for a variety of regions. Changes in simulated sea-to-air DMS emissions and associated atmospheric abundance, along with associated aerosols and cloud and radiative properties, were consistently dominated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle in the tropical Pacific region. Simulated DMS, aerosols, and clouds showed a weak positive feedback on sea surface temperature. This feedback suggests a link among DMS, aerosols, clouds, and climate on interannual timescales. The variability of DMS emissions associated with ENSO was primarily caused by a higher variation in wind speed during La Niña events. The simulation results also suggest that variations in DMS emissions increase the frequency of La Niña events but do not alter ENSO variability in terms of the standard deviation of the Niño 3 sea surface temperature anomalies.

  7. Using ENSO to analyse Cloud Radiative Feedback

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolly, Allison; Huang, Yi

    2017-04-01

    When attempting to diagnose the climate sensitivity, clouds are the cause of much uncertainty as they are highly variable. There exists a discrepancy between climate models and observations on the sign and magnitude of cloud radiative feedback. For example, Dessler (2013) shows that models predict a very strong, positive feedback response to ENSO sea surface temperature anomalies in the central Pacific which is not present in observations. To better understand these discrepancies we are using radiation data from the CERES satellite and ERAi reanalysis data to look at the most recent El Nino events. By looking at temperature and humidity anomalies in the central Pacific which are associated with these events, and using radiative kernels, we can calculate their radiative effects. We extend previous work by not only performing an analysis of TOA but also analysing the surface and atmospheric radiation budgets. Additionally we analyse the latest GCMs (e.g. CMIP5 models) and compare them to observations.

  8. Impact of global warming on ENSO phase change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Cabos Narvaez

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available We compare the physical mechanisms involved in the generation and decay of ENSO events in a control (present day conditions and Scenario (Is92a, IPCC 1996 simulations performed with the coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM ECHAM4-OPYC3. A clustering technique which objectively discriminates common features in the evolution of the Tropical Pacific Heat Content anomalies leading to the peak of ENSO events allows us to group into a few classes the ENSO events occurring in 240 years of data in the control and scenario runs. In both simulations, the composites of the groups show differences in the generation and development of ENSO. We present the changes in the statistics of the groups and explore the possible mechanisms involved.

  9. Interdecadal variations of ENSO around 1999/2000

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Kumar, Arun; Huang, Bohua; Zhu, Jieshun; Ren, Hong-Li

    2017-02-01

    This paper discusses the interdecadal changes of the climate in the tropical Pacific with a focus on the corresponding changes in the characteristics of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Compared with 1979-1999, the whole tropical Pacific climate system, including both the ocean and atmosphere, shifted to a lower variability regime after 1999/2000. Meanwhile, the frequency of ENSO became less regular and was closer to a white noise process. The lead time of the equatorial Pacific's subsurface ocean heat content in preceding ENSO decreased remarkably, in addition to a reduction in the maximum correlation between them. The weakening of the correlation and the shortening of the lead time pose more challenges for ENSO prediction, and is the likely reason behind the decrease in skill with respect to ENSO prediction after 2000. Coincident with the changes in tropical Pacific climate variability, the mean states of the atmospheric and oceanic components also experienced physically coherent changes. The warm anomaly of SST in the western Pacific and cold anomaly in the eastern Pacific resulted in an increased zonal SST gradient, linked to an enhancement in surface wind stress and strengthening of the Walker circulation, as well as an increase in the slope of the thermocline. These changes were consistent with an increase (a decrease) in precipitation and an enhancement (a suppression) of the deep convection in the western (eastern) equatorial Pacific. Possible connections between the mean state and ENSO variability and frequency changes in the tropical Pacific are also discussed.

  10. Variability of lightning activity over India on ENSO time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmad, Adnan; Ghosh, Mili

    2017-12-01

    ENSO, the reliable indicator of inter-annual climate variation of the ocean-atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific region, can affect the overall lightning activity which is another atmospheric phenomenon. In the present study, the impact of the ENSO on the total lightning activity over India has been studied for the period 2004-2014. During the El-Nino period (July 2004-April 2005 and July 2009-April 2010), total number of lightning flashes increased by 10% and 18% respectively and during La-Nina period (July 2010-April 2011 and August 2011 to March 2012), the total number of lightning flashes decreased approximately by 19% and 28% respectively as compared to the mean of corresponding period (2004-14) of the Non-ENSO. Seasonal variation of flash density is also examined for the El-Nino and La-Nina period. The result shows that in the El-Nino period of the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons, there is an increment in the flash density approximately by 48% and 9% respectively than the Non-ENSO and the spatial variation also having high flash density along the foot of Himalayas region. In the post-monsoon season, there is a marginal change in the flash density between El-Nino and the Non-ENSO. In the winter season, there is an increment in flash density in the El-Nino period approximately by 45% than the Non-ENSO. In the La-Nina period of the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons, there is the decrement in the flash density approximately by the 44% and 24% respectively than the Non-ENSO. In the Post-monsoon season and winter season of La-Nina, the flash density is increased by about 24% and 33% over India. These findings can be applied to do proper planning of lightning induced hazard mitigation as lightning is of one of the major natural disasters of India.

  11. ENSO-related PM10 variability on the Korean Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wie, Jieun; Moon, Byung-Kwon

    2017-10-01

    Particulate matter, defined as particles of less than 10 μm in diameter (PM10), was analyzed over the Korean Peninsula from 2001 to 2015 to examine the influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on subseasonal PM10 variability. The PM10 data were obtained from 151 air quality monitoring stations provided by the Korea Environment Corporation (KECO). Lead-lag correlation analysis, which was performed to investigate the connection between NDJF (November-February) NINO3 index and seasonal mean PM10 data, did not yield any statistically significant correlations. However, using five-pentad moving-averaged PM10 data, statistically significant correlations between NDJF NINO3 index and PM10 variability were found in four subseasonal periods, with alternating positive and negative correlations. In the periods during which PM10 levels on the Korean Peninsula were positively (negatively) correlated with the ENSO index, the positive PM10 anomalies are associated with El Niño (La Niña) years, which implies that the occurrence of high-PM10 events could be modulated by the ENSO phase. In addition, this ENSO-related PM10 variation is negatively correlated with ENSO-related precipitation in the Korean Peninsula, indicating that more (less) wet deposition leads to lower (higher) PM10 level. Therefore, we conclude that the ENSO-induced precipitation anomalies over the Korean Peninsula are mainly responsible for ENSO-related PM10 variations. This study will be helpful for further identifying detailed chemistry-climate processes that control PM10 concentrations.

  12. Global Terrestrial Water Storage Changes and Connections to ENSO Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ni, Shengnan; Chen, Jianli; Wilson, Clark R.; Li, Jin; Hu, Xiaogong; Fu, Rong

    2018-01-01

    Improved data quality of extended record of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite gravity solutions enables better understanding of terrestrial water storage (TWS) variations. Connections of TWS and climate change are critical to investigate regional and global water cycles. In this study, we provide a comprehensive analysis of global connections between interannual TWS changes and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, using multiple sources of data, including GRACE measurements, land surface model (LSM) predictions and precipitation observations. We use cross-correlation and coherence spectrum analysis to examine global connections between interannual TWS changes and the Niño 3.4 index, and select four river basins (Amazon, Orinoco, Colorado, and Lena) for more detailed analysis. The results indicate that interannual TWS changes are strongly correlated with ENSO over much of the globe, with maximum cross-correlation coefficients up to 0.70, well above the 95% significance level ( 0.29) derived by the Monte Carlo experiments. The strongest correlations are found in tropical and subtropical regions, especially in the Amazon, Orinoco, and La Plata basins. While both GRACE and LSM TWS estimates show reasonably good correlations with ENSO and generally consistent spatial correlation patterns, notably higher correlations are found between GRACE TWS and ENSO. The existence of significant correlations in middle-high latitudes shows the large-scale impact of ENSO on the global water cycle.

  13. ENSO floods on river ecosystems: catastrophes or myths?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Neiff, J.J. [CECOAL, Corrientes (Argentina). Littoral Applied Ecology Centre; Mendiondo, E.M. [Kassel Univ. (Germany). Hydraulic Structures and Water-Resources Engineering; Univ. Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil). Inst. de Pesquisas Hidraulicas; Depettris, C.A. [Northeast National Univ.-UNNE, Chaco (Argentina). Dept. Hydraulics

    2000-07-01

    Very extreme floods ranging from 38000 to 62000 m{sup 3}s{sup -1}, draining a 2 million km{sup 2} catchment area and severe inundations downstream of the Paraguay-Parana confluence in South America are related to the El Nino Southern Oscillation -ENSO-. This paper links ENSO floods to natural ecosystems, e.g. the flood plain patchiness, the biodiversity and the ecosystem structure. River behaviour may be described with parameters, such as frequency, intensity, tension, regularity, amplitude and seasonality. According to the 20th century river time series, noteworthy fluvial changes are related to extreme floods through actual time. Nevertheless, the ecosystem recovers itself by means of resilience and is here assessed by remote sensing. This lack of understanding is at the origin of enormous economic losses in ecosystems impacted by ENSO floods during the 1983-98 period going from catastrophes to myths. Although flood plain ecosystems are often well adapted to ENSO floods, the risks of the latter must be properly addressed. Therefore, adaptations to land use are discussed, demanding a change of attitude of the society to cope with river behaviour and to put the ENSO flood myth into question. (orig.)

  14. ENSO, rotación terrestre, volcanes y sismicidad.

    OpenAIRE

    Mesa Sánchez, Óscar José

    2002-01-01

    El fenómeno de El Niño- Oscilación del Sur (ENSO) integra paradigmáticamente todas las geociencias. La interacción océano-atmósfera se acepta comúnmente como el actor central de esta oscilación interanual del sistema climático. Algo más desconocida es la influencia del ENSO en la rotación terrestre, aunque hay excelente evidencia empírica y sólida explicación teórica. Con respecto a la influencia del ENSO en la sismicidad la situación es bastante polémica, las observaciones son discutibles...

  15. Changes in Sea Salt Emissions Enhance ENSO Variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Yang; Russell, Lynn M.; Lou, Sijia; Lamjiri, Maryam A.; Liu, Ying; Singh, Balwinder; Ghan, Steven J.

    2016-11-15

    Two 150-year pre-industrial simulations with and without interactive sea salt emissions from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) are performed to quantify the interactions between sea salt emissions and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Variations in sea salt emissions over the tropical Pacific Ocean are affected by changing wind speed associated with ENSO variability. ENSO-induced interannual variations in sea salt emissions result in decreasing (increasing) aerosol optical depth (AOD) by 0.03 over the equatorial central-eastern (western) Pacific Ocean during El Niño events compared to those during La Niña events. These changes in AOD further increase (decrease) radiative fluxes into the atmosphere by +0.2 W m-2 (-0.4 W m-2) over the tropical eastern (western) Pacific. Thereby, sea surface temperature increases (decreases) by 0.2–0.4 K over the tropical eastern (western) Pacific Ocean during El Niño compared to La Niña events and enhances ENSO variability by 10%. The increase in ENSO amplitude is a result of systematic heating (cooling) during the warm (cold) phase, of ENSO in the eastern Pacific. Interannual variations in sea salt emissions then produce the anomalous ascent (subsidence) over the equatorial eastern (western) Pacific between El Niño and La Niña events, which is a result of heating anomalies. Due to variations in sea salt emissions, the convective precipitation is enhanced by 0.6–1.2 mm day-1 over the tropical central-eastern Pacific Ocean and weakened by 0.9–1.5 mm day-1 over the Maritime Continent during El Niño compared to La Niña events, enhancing the precipitation variability over the tropical Pacific.

  16. Stora Enso varub Eestis jõuliselt puitu / Väinu Rozental

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Rozental, Väinu, 1957-

    2003-01-01

    Kuigi Soome metsatööstusgrupi Stora Enso Metsa käive kahanes III kvartalis 4%, on Eesti metsavarumisfirmade väitel märgata Stora Enso Metsa üha suurenevat aktiivsust puiduvarumises. Tabel: Stora Enso Metsa suurim saeveski on Imaveres

  17. ENSO teleconnections in the southern hemisphere: A climate network view

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arizmendi, Fernando; Barreiro, Marcelo

    2017-09-01

    Using functional network analysis, we study the seasonality of atmospheric connectivity and its interannual variability depending on the different phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. We find a strong variability of the connectivity on seasonal and interannual time scales both in the tropical and extratropical regions. In particular, there are significant changes in the southern hemisphere extratropical atmospheric connectivity during austral spring within the different stages of ENSO: We find that the connectivity patterns due to stationary Rossby waves differ during El Niño and La Niña, showing a very clear wave train originating close to Australia in the former case, as opposed to La Niña that seems to generate a wave train from the central Pacific. An attempt to understand these differences in terms of changes in the frequency of intraseasonal weather regimes cannot fully explain the differences in connectivity, even though we found the prevalence of different intraseasonal regimes in each phase of ENSO. We conclude that the differential response to extreme phases of ENSO during austral springtime is related to the forcing of waves of different tropical origins.

  18. Analysis of ENSO-based climate variability in modulating drought ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The first copula model is developed without accounting the climate state information to obtain joint and conditional return periods of drought characteristics. Then, copula-based models are developed for each climate state to estimate the joint and conditional probabilities of drought characteristics under each ENSO state.

  19. Analysis of ENSO-based climate variability in modulating drought ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The first copula model is developed without accounting the climate state infor- mation to obtain joint and conditional return periods of drought characteristics. Then, copula-based models are developed for each climate state to estimate the joint and conditional probabilities of drought characteristics under each ENSO state.

  20. ENSO impacts on flood risk at the global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Philip; Dettinger, Michael; Jongman, Brenden; Kummu, Matti; Winsemius, Hessel

    2014-05-01

    We present the impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on society and the economy, via relationships between ENSO and the hydrological cycle. We also discuss ways in which this knowledge can be used in disaster risk management and risk reduction. This contribution provides the most recent results of an ongoing 4-year collaborative research initiative to assess and map the impacts of large scale interannual climate variability on flood hazard and risk at the global scale. We have examined anomalies in flood risk between ENSO phases, whereby flood risk is expressed in terms of indicators such as: annual expected damage; annual expected affected population; annual expected affected Gross Domestic Product (GDP). We show that large anomalies in flood risk occur during El Niño or La Niña years in basins covering large parts of the Earth's surface. These anomalies reach statistical significance river basins covering almost two-thirds of the Earth's surface. Particularly strong anomalies exist in southern Africa, parts of western Africa, Australia, parts of Central Eurasia (especially for El Niño), the western USA (especially La Niña anomalies), and parts of South America. We relate these anomalies to possible causal relationships between ENSO and flood hazard, using both modelled and observed data on flood occurrence and extremity. The implications for flood risk management are many-fold. In those regions where disaster risk is strongly influenced by ENSO, the potential predictably of ENSO could be used to develop probabilistic flood risk projections with lead times up to several seasons. Such data could be used by the insurance industry in managing risk portfolios and by multinational companies for assessing the robustness of their supply chains to potential flood-related interruptions. Seasonal forecasts of ENSO influence of peak flows could also allow for improved flood early warning and regulation by dam operators, which could also reduce overall risks

  1. Influence of ENSO on the Pacific decadal oscillation in CMIP models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nidheesh, A. G.; Lengaigne, Matthieu; Vialard, Jérôme; Izumo, Takeshi; Unnikrishnan, A. S.; Cassou, Christophe

    2017-02-01

    Emerging decadal climate predictions call for an assessment of decadal climate variability in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) database. In this paper, we evaluate the influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in 10 control simulations from the CMIP3 and 22 from the CMIP5 database. All models overestimate the time lag between ENSO forcing and the PDO response. While half of the models exhibit ENSO-PDO correlation which is close to that in observation (>0.5) when the time lag is accounted for, the rest of the models underestimate this relationship. Models with stronger ENSO-PDO correlation tend to exhibit larger PDO-related signals in the equatorial and south Pacific, highlighting the key role of ENSO teleconnection in setting the inter-hemispheric Pacific pattern of the PDO. The strength of the ENSO-PDO relationship is related to both ENSO amplitude and strength of ENSO teleconnection to the North Pacific sea-level pressure variability in the Aleutian Low region. The shape of the PDO spectrum is consistent with that predicted from a combination of direct ENSO forcing, atmospheric stochastic forcing over the North Pacific and the re-emergence process in 27 models out of 32. Given the essential role of ENSO in shaping the Pacific decadal variability, models displaying realistic ENSO amplitude and teleconnections should be preferentially used to perform decadal prediction experiments.

  2. The effects of remote SST forcings on ENSO dynamics, variability and diversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dommenget, Dietmar; Yu, Yanshan

    2017-10-01

    Air-sea interactions with remote regions in the tropical Indian and Atlantic, and extra-tropical oceans can influence ENSO features in the tropical Pacific. In this study these effects are explored by using an AGCM coupled with a Slab Ocean and a simple recharge oscillator ENSO model through switched on/off air-sea interaction in respective ocean area. It is shown that the decoupling in different remote regions has different impacts on ENSO dynamics, variability and diversity. The most interesting result is that the air-sea interactions with remote tropical oceans provide a delayed negative feedback to ENSO similar to that of the tropical Pacific Ocean internal wave dynamics. This is caused by the ENSO teleconnections: they lead to a delayed remote warming and cooling, which in turn feedbacks to ENSO effectively giving a delayed negative feedback. The model simulations suggest that this remote delayed feedback may contribute about 40% to the total delayed negative feedback of ENSO. Thus a central element of ENSO dynamics is partly due to interactions with other tropical ocean basins by atmospheric teleconnections. Furthermore, all remote regions effectively provide stochastic forcings for the ENSO variability and therefore increase the ENSO variability. The influence from the remote regions also causes different patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the tropical Pacific, contributing to the diversity of the ENSO mode. In particular the extra-tropical Pacific regions force SST variability that is different from the equatorial ENSO mode of variability. The influence that the remote regions have on the ENSO dynamics and variability is significantly altered by the interaction between the equatorial recharge oscillator dynamics and the simple thermodynamic slab ocean processes.

  3. A Southwest Pacific Coral Perspective on ENSO Variability: Precessional Forcing vs. Internal Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinn, T. M.; Partin, J. W.; Thirumalai, K.; Maupin, C. R.; Vara, M. A.; Shen, C. C.; Taylor, F. W.

    2014-12-01

    ENSO variability is manifest in the western Pacific through heat and moisture exchanges associated with the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) and the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). Forward modeling (pseudoproxy analysis) results and published coral proxy records from the tropical Pacific indicate that in addition to the central and eastern Pacific regions, corals from the WPWP and SPCZ regions skillfully record ENSO variability. Some studies suggest that precessional forcing directly reduces/enhances ENSO variability. Other studies suggest that internal variability is the primary control on Holocene ENSO changes. Herein, we use coral proxy records from the tropical Pacific and numerical simulations to better understand the response of ENSO to precessional forcing and internal variability. We extend the coral record of ENSO variability using a new modern coral record from the Solomon Islands (1716-2008 CE) and a select suite of Holocene fossil coral records from the WPWP. The new modern coral record captures large ENSO events with considerable skill, providing new evidence for potential large ENSO events during the early 18th and 19th centuries, events that are not represented in current coral and/or multi-proxy reconstructions. We also note that long periods of reduced ENSO activity can occur during intervals with near constant precessional forcing at modern values. The fossil coral records provide discrete time windows into ENSO variability over the Holocene. These records provide evidence of similar patterns of ENSO activity during intervals with different precessional configurations. The modern and fossil coral records imply a strong influence of internal variability in the modulation of ENSO, which may make it difficult to establish a direct control of precessional forcing on ENSO variability over the Holocene.

  4. Study of the global and regional climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude using SPEEDY AGCM

    KAUST Repository

    Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar

    2017-03-09

    ENSO is considered as a strong atmospheric teleconnection that has pronounced global and regional circulation effects. It modifies global monsoon system, especially, Asian and African monsoons. Previous studies suggest that both the frequency and magnitude of ENSO events have increased over the last few decades resulting in a need to study climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude both at global and regional scales. Hence, to better understand the impact of ENSO amplitude over the tropical and extratropical regions focussing on the Asian and African domains, ENSO sensitivity experiments are conducted using ICTPAGCM (‘SPEEDY’). It is anticipated that the tropical Pacific SST forcing will be enough to produce ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns; therefore, the model is forced using NINO3.4 regressed SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific only. SPEEDY reproduces the impact of ENSO over the Pacific, North and South America and African regions very well. However, it underestimates ENSO teleconnection patterns and associated changes over South Asia, particularly in the Indian region, which suggests that the tropical Pacific SST forcing is not sufficient to represent ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns over South Asia. Therefore, SST forcing over the tropical Indian Ocean together with air–sea coupling is also required for better representation of ENSO-induced changes in these regions. Moreover, results obtained by this pacemaker experiment show that ENSO impacts are relatively stronger over the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) compared to extratropics and high latitude regions. The positive phase of ENSO causes weakening in rainfall activity over African tropical rain belt, parts of South and Southeast Asia, whereas, the La Niña phase produces more rain over these regions during the summer season. Model results further reveal that ENSO magnitude has a stronger impact over African Sahel and South Asia, especially over the Indian region because of its significant

  5. Impact of ENSO on Photochemical Pollution in Bogota, Colombia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saldarriaga, G.; Jimenez-Pizarro, R.

    2012-12-01

    We investigated the effect of the increased solar radiation and surface temperature associated with El Niño, i.e. the stationary warm cycle of ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation), on the surface ozone concentration in Bogota. Two periods of analysis were defined based on NOAA's ONI (Oceanic Niño) index, and the availability and quality of the meteorological and air quality time series: February 2009 (neutral phase) and February 2010 (warm phase of El Niño). The analysis of surface temperatures at urban sites of Bogota's Air Quality Network (RMCAB) and IDEAM's El Dorado station show temperature differences between these two periods of ~2.5 °C. Although these differences in surface temperature are significant and sufficient to produce substantial increase of surface ozone, no significant changes in ozone levels were observed at the RMCAB stations. Moreover, no significant changes were observed on the wind speed and wind circulation patterns. On the contrary, the mixed layer height at the El Dorado airport (estimated with the Holzworth's method applied to daily radiosoundings) was ~300 m (~24%) higher during the warm phase of El Niño compared with the sunny period not influenced by ENSO. Based on basic calculations with a box model, we hypothesize that the ozone production increase during the ENSO's warm phase is compensated by a deeper mixed layer, leading to similar surface ozone concentration levels during the two periods.

  6. The relationship between ENSO and Paraná River flow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. O. Cardoso

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Several studies indicate that there is a relationship between the climatic variability in the South American continent and alterations of the position and intensity of the heat sources in the equatorial region. The El Niño phenomenon can influence the precipitation over some regions of South America such as the Brazilian Northeast, Amazonia, South of Brazil and Uruguay. Over 80% of Brazil's energy comes from hydropower, and decisions concerning future availability and pricing require forecasts of river flow, ideally several months in advance. In this work the relationship between the Paraná River flow and the ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation mode is investigated and statistical forecasts of river flow are tested. An evaluation of the relationship between the Pacific sea surface temperature and the Paraná River flow indicates an ENSO pattern over the equatorial Pacific. The time series of the ENSO mode obtained by applying principal components analysis on the sea surface temperature (SST were used as predictors for the Paraná River flow forecast. Improvement in the model forecast skill is also obtained by considering the lagged river flow time series as a predictor.

  7. Greening of the Sahara suppressed ENSO activity during the mid-Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pausata, Francesco S. R.; Zhang, Qiong; Muschitiello, Francesco; Lu, Zhengyao; Chafik, Léon; Niedermeyer, Eva M.; Stager, J. Curt; Cobb, Kim M.; Liu, Zhengyu

    2017-07-01

    The evolution of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during the Holocene remains uncertain. In particular, a host of new paleoclimate records suggest that ENSO internal variability or other external forcings may have dwarfed the fairly modest ENSO response to precessional insolation changes simulated in climate models. Here, using fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model simulations, we show that accounting for a vegetated and less dusty Sahara during the mid-Holocene relative to preindustrial climate can reduce ENSO variability by 25%, more than twice the decrease obtained using orbital forcing alone. We identify changes in tropical Atlantic mean state and variability caused by the momentous strengthening of the West Africa Monsoon (WAM) as critical factors in amplifying ENSO's response to insolation forcing through changes in the Walker circulation. Our results thus suggest that potential changes in the WAM due to anthropogenic warming may influence ENSO variability in the future as well.

  8. Modulation of Bjerknes feedback on the decadal variations in ENSO predictability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Fei; Fang, Xiang-Hui; Zhu, Jiang; Yu, Jin-Yi; Li, Xi-Chen

    2016-12-01

    Clear decadal variations exist in the predictability of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with the most recent decade having the lowest ENSO predictability in the past six decades. The Bjerknes Feedback (BF) intensity, which dominates the development of ENSO, has been proposed to determine ENSO predictability. Here we demonstrate that decadal variations in BF intensity are largely a result of the sensitivity of the zonal winds to the zonal sea level pressure (SLP) gradient in the equatorial Pacific. Furthermore, the results show that during low-ENSO predictability decades, zonal wind anomalies over the equatorial Pacific are more linked to SLP variations in the off-equatorial Pacific, which can then transfer this information into surface temperature and precipitation fields through the BF, suggesting a weakening in the ocean-atmosphere coupling in the tropical Pacific. This result indicates that more attention should be paid to off-equatorial processes in the prediction of ENSO.

  9. Modulation of ENSO evolution by strong tropical volcanic eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tao; Guo, Dong; Gao, Yongqi; Wang, Huijun; Zheng, Fei; Zhu, Yali; Miao, Jiapeng; Hu, Yongyun

    2017-11-01

    The simulated responses of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to volcanic forcings are controversial, and some mechanisms of these responses are not clear. We investigate the impacts of volcanic forcing on the ENSO using a long-term simulation covering 1400-1999 as simulated by the Bergen Climate Model (BCM) and a group of simulations performed with the Community Atmosphere Model version 4.0 (CAM4) and the BCM's ocean component Miami Isopycanic Coordinated Ocean Model (MICOM). The analysis of the long-term BCM simulation indicates that ENSO has a negative-positive-negative response to strong tropical volcanic eruptions (SVEs), which corresponds to the different stages of volcanic forcing. In the initial forcing stage, a brief and weak La Niña-like response is caused by the cooling along the west coast of the South American continent and associated enhancement of the trade winds. In the peak forcing stage, westerly wind anomalies are excited by both reduced east-west sea level pressure gradients and weakened and equatorward shifted tropical convergence zones. These westerly wind anomalies extend to the equatorial eastern Pacific, leading to an El Niño-like response. At the same time, easterly wind anomalies west of 120°E and strong cooling effects can promote a discharged thermocline state and excite an upwelling Kelvin wave in the western Pacific. In the declining forcing stage, forced by the recovered trade winds, the upwelling Kelvin wave propagates eastward and reaches the equatorial eastern Pacific. Through the Bjerknes feedback, a strong and temporally extended La Niña-like response forms. Additional CAM4 simulations suggest a more important role of the surface cooling over the Maritime Continent and surrounding ocean in shaping the westerly wind anomalies over the equatorial central-eastern Pacific and the easterly wind anomalies west of 120° E, which are key to causing the El Niño-like responses and subsequent La Niña-like responses

  10. ENSO in a warming world: interannual climate variability in the early Miocene Southern Hemisphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Bethany; Wilson, Gary; Lee, Daphne

    2016-04-01

    The El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant source of interannual variability in the modern-day climate system. ENSO is a quasi-periodic cycle with a recurrence interval of 2-8 years. A major question in modern climatology is how ENSO will respond to increased climatic warmth. ENSO-like (2-8 year) cycles have been detected in many palaeoclimate records for the Holocene. However, the temporal resolution of pre-Quaternary palaeoclimate archives is generally too coarse to investigate ENSO-scale variability. We present a 100-kyr record of ENSO-like variability during the second half of the Oligocene/Miocene Mi-1 event, a period of increasing global temperatures and Antarctic deglaciation (~23.032-2.93 Ma). This record is drawn from an annually laminated lacustrine diatomite from southern New Zealand, a region strongly affected by ENSO in the present day. The diatomite consists of seasonal alternations of light (diatom bloom) and dark (low diatom productivity) layers. Each light-dark couplet represents one year's sedimentation. Light-dark couplet thickness is characterised by ENSO-scale variability. We use high-resolution (sub-annual) measurements of colour spectra to detect couplet thickness variability. Wavelet analysis indicates that absolute values are modulated by orbital cycles. However, when orbital effects are taken into account, ENSO-like variability occurs throughout the entire depositional period, with no clear increase or reduction in relation to Antarctic deglaciation and increasing global warmth.

  11. The role of South Pacific atmospheric variability in the development of different types of ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    You, Yujia; Furtado, Jason C.

    2017-07-01

    Recent advances in tropical Pacific climate variability have focused on understanding the development of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, specifically the types or "flavors" of ENSO (i.e., central versus eastern Pacific events). While precursors to ENSO events exist, distinguishing the particular flavor of the expected ENSO event remains unresolved. This study offers a new look at ENSO predictability using South Pacific atmospheric variability during austral winter as an indicator. The positive phase of the leading mode of South Pacific sea level pressure variability, which we term the South Pacific Oscillation (SPO), exhibits a meridional dipole with with a(n) (anti)cyclonic anomaly dominating the subtropics (extratropics/high latitudes). Once energized, the cyclonic anomalies in the subtropical node of the SPO weaken the southeasterly trade winds and promote the charging of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, giving rise to eastern Pacific ENSO events. Indeed, the type of ENSO event can be determined accurately using only the magnitude and phase of the SPO during austral winter as a predictor (17 out of 23 cases). The SPO may also play a role in explaining the asymmetry of warm and cold events. Collectively, our findings present a new perspective on ENSO-South Pacific interactions that can advance overall understanding of the ENSO system and enhance its predictability across multiple timescales.

  12. Air-temperature variations and ENSO effects in Indonesia, the Philippines and El Salvador. ENSO patterns and changes from 1866-1993

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harger, J. R. E.

    The major features in development of the "El Nino-Southern Oscillation" (ENSO) involve oscillation of the Pacific ocean-atmosphere in an essentially unpredictable (chaotic) fashion. The system moves between extremes of the so-called "warm events" lasting one or two years and involving movement of warm sea water from the western Pacific along the equator to impact on the west coast of the American continent and "cold-events" associated with easterly trade-wind-induced flows of colder water from the eastern Pacific towards the west. Historical data indicate that ENSO years as experienced by the Island of Java are either much warmer than non-ENSO years or only slightly, if at all, warmer than normal (non-ENSO) years. Hot-dry years within the ENSO warm event cycle are almost always followed by cooler wet years and vice versa. This pattern also extends to include the year immediately following the terminal year of an ENSO warm event set. The initial year of an ENSO warm event set may be either hot with a long dry season or relatively cool (nearer to the temperature of a non-ENSO year) and having a short dry season. In recent years, since 1950, of the 9 ENSO warm events, the initial year tends to have been hot and dry for 6 (1951, 1957, 1963, 1972, 1982, 1991) and neutral or cool and wet for 3 (1968, 1976, 1986). An area of 88,000 ha burned in 1991 (Jakarta Post 30 November 1991) largely in Kalimantan in association with the 1991-1992 ENSO event, an extensive pall of smoke developed over Kalimantan, Singapore and Malaysia during September-October of 1991. Surface vegetation-based fires continued to burn in East Kalimantan as of 29 April 1992 and extended into the 1992 dry season, in response to the ENSO conditions carrying forward from 1991. The increasing annual trend in air-temperature exhibited by the mean monthly values over the period 1866-1993, for the Jakarta and the Semarang data taken together is 1.64°C (0.0132°C per year from 25.771 to 27.409°C). The major

  13. Impacts of a Pinatubo-size volcanic eruption on ENSO

    KAUST Repository

    Predybaylo, Evgeniya

    2017-01-16

    Observations and model simulations of the climate responses to strong explosive low-latitude volcanic eruptions suggest a significant increase in the likelihood of El Niño during the eruption and posteruption years, though model results have been inconclusive and have varied in magnitude and even sign. In this study, we test how this spread of responses depends on the initial phase of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the eruption year and on the eruption\\'s seasonal timing. We employ the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory CM2.1 global coupled general circulation model to investigate the impact of the Pinatubo 1991 eruption, assuming that in 1991 ENSO would otherwise be in central or eastern Pacific El Niño, La Niña, or neutral phases. We obtain statistically significant El Niño responses in a year after the eruption for all cases except La Niña, which shows no response in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The eruption has a weaker impact on eastern Pacific El Niños than on central Pacific El Niños. We find that the ocean dynamical thermostat and (to a lesser extent) wind changes due to land-ocean temperature gradients are the main feedbacks affecting El Niño development after the eruption. The El Niño responses to eruptions occurring in summer are more pronounced than for winter and spring eruptions. That the climate response depends on eruption season and initial ENSO phase may help to reconcile apparent inconsistencies among previous studies.

  14. ENSO Indices Based on Patterns of Satellite-Derived Precipitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtis, Scott; Adler, Robert

    2000-08-01

    In this study, gridded observed precipitation datasets are used to construct rainfall-based ENSO indices. The monthly El Niño and La Niña indices (EI and LI) measure the steepest zonal gradient of precipitation anomalies between the equatorial Pacific and the Maritime Continent. This is accomplished by spatially averaging precipitation anomalies using a spatial boxcar filter, finding the maximum and minimum averages within a Pacific and Maritime Continent domain for each month, and taking differences. The EI and LI can be examined separately or combined to produce one El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) precipitation index (ESPI). ESPI is well correlated with traditional sea surface temperature (e.g., Niño-3.4) and pressure indices [e.g., Southern Oscillation index (SOI)], leading Niño-3.4 by a month. ESPI has a tendency to produce stronger La Niñas than does Niño-3.4 and SOI. One advantage satellite-derived precipitation indices have over more conventional indices is describing the strength and position of the Walker circulation. Examples are given of tracking the impact of recent ENSO events on the tropical precipitation fields. The 1982/83 and 1997/98 events were unique in that, during the transition from the warm to the cold phase, precipitation patterns associated with El Niño and La Niña were simultaneously strong. According to EI and ESPI, the 1997/98 El Niño was the strongest event over the past 20 years.

  15. North Pacific decadal variability: insights from a biennial ENSO environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achuthavarier, Deepthi; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Vikhliaev, Yury V.

    2017-08-01

    This study examines the mechanisms of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) in the NASA GEOS-5 general circulation model (GCM). Similar to several other state-of-the-art GCMs, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) simulated by the GEOS-5 has a strong biennial periodicity. Since this is a model bias that precludes a strong role of ENSO, it provides a unique environment to assess the other leading mechanisms of North Pacific decadal variability. Despite the biennial ENSO periodicity, the model simulates a realistic PDO pattern in the North Pacific that is resolved as the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of winter mean sea surface temperature (SST). The spectrum of the PDO indicates no preferred periodicity. The SST anomalies associated with the PDO, particularly its basin wide structure, are primarily forced by the Aleutian low through Ekman transport. The slow geostrophic transport in association with the meridional adjustment of the subtropical gyre is limited to a narrow region in the Kuroshio-Oyashio extension, north of 40°N. The atmosphere's response to the PDO, while weak, projects onto the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), a meridional dipole in sea level pressure. Both the lack of preferred periodicity and the weak atmospheric response indicate an air-sea coupled oscillation is an unlikely mechanism in this model. In agreement with recent studies, the NPO is correlated with the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation, which is another leading EOF of North Pacific SST variability. The results emphasize the role of atmospheric variability in the North Pacific SST modes, thereby bringing into question the potential for their predictability.

  16. ENSO impact on surface radiative fluxes as observed from space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinker, R. T.; Grodsky, S. A.; Zhang, B.; Busalacchi, A.; Chen, W.

    2017-10-01

    We investigate the impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on surface radiative fluxes over the tropical Pacific using satellite observations and fluxes derived from selected atmospheric reanalyses. Agreement between the two in this region is important because reanalysis information is frequently used to assess surface energy budget sensitivity to ENSO. We found that during the traditional ENSO, the maximum variance of anomalous incoming solar radiation is located just west of the dateline and coincides with the area of the largest anomalous SST gradient. It can reach up to 60 W/m2 and lags behind the Niño3 index by about a month, suggesting a response to anomalous SST gradient. The magnitude of longwave anomaly is only half that large and varies in phase with the SST anomaly. Similar anomalies were derived from outputs: from the European Centre for Medium-Weather Forecasts Reanalysis Interim (ERA-I), from the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis version 2 (MERRA-2), from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 (R1), and from the Japanese JRA55 reanalysis. Among the four reanalyses used, results from ERA-I are the closest to observations. We have also investigated the surface wind divergence/convergence and found that the main factor limiting eastward excursions of convection is the surface wind convergence. Due to the wind divergence pattern normally present over the eastern cold tongue, anomalous convection extends into the eastern equatorial Pacific only during the strongest warm events. Our analysis also considers the El Niño Modoki events, for which the radiation flux patterns are shifted westward following the SST pattern.

  17. The complex influence of ENSO on droughts in Ecuador

    KAUST Repository

    Vicente-Serrano, S. M.

    2016-03-26

    In this study, we analyzed the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the spatio-temporal variability of droughts in Ecuador for a 48-year period (1965–2012). Droughts were quantified from 22 high-quality and homogenized time series of precipitation and air temperature by means of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. In addition, the propagation of two different ENSO indices (El Niño 3.4 and El Niño 1 + 2 indices) and other atmospheric circulation processes (e.g., vertical velocity) on different time-scales of drought severity were investigated. The results showed a very complex influence of ENSO on drought behavior across Ecuador, with two regional patterns in the evolution of droughts: (1) the Andean chain with no changes in drought severity, and (2) the Western plains with less severe and frequent droughts. We also detected that drought variability in the Andes mountains is explained by the El Niño 3.4 index [sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central Pacific], whereas the Western plains are much more driven by El Niño 1 + 2 index (SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific). Moreover, it was also observed that El Niño and La Niña phases enhance droughts in the Andes and Western plains regions, respectively. The results of this work could be crucial for predicting and monitoring drought variability and intensity in Ecuador. © 2016 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

  18. ENSO impact on simulated South American hydro-climatology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Stuck

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The variability of the simulated hydro-climatology of the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model (WGHM is analysed. Main object of this study is the ENSO-driven variability of the water storage of South America. The horizontal model resolution amounts to 0.5 degree and it is forced with monthly climate variables for 1961-1995 of the Tyndall Centre Climate Research Unit dataset (CRU TS 2.0 as a representation of the observed climate state. Secondly, the model is also forced by the model output of a global circulation model, the ECHAM4-T42 GCM. This model itself is driven by observed monthly means of the global Sea Surface Temperatures (SST and the sea ice coverage for the period of 1903 to 1994 (GISST. Thus, the climate model and the hydrological model represent a realistic simulated realisation of the hydro-climatologic state of the last century. Since four simulations of the ECHAM4 model with the same forcing, but with different initial conditions are carried out, an analysis of variance (ANOVA gives an impression of the impact of the varying SST on the hydro-climatology, because the variance can be separated into a SST-explained and a model internal variability (noise. Also regional multivariate analyses, like Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF and Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA provide information of the complex time-space variability. In particular the Amazon region and the South of Brazil are significantly influenced by the ENSO-variability, but also the Pacific coastal areas of Ecuador and Peru are affected. Additionally, different ENSO-indices, based on SST anomalies (e.g. NINO3.4, NINO1+2, and its influence on the South American hydro-climatology are analysed. Especially, the Pacific coast regions of Ecuador, Peru and Chile show a very different behaviour dependant on those indices.

  19. Phenological Responses to ENSO in the Global Oceans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Racault, M.-F.; Sathyendranath, S.; Menon, N.; Platt, T.

    2017-01-01

    Phenology relates to the study of timing of periodic events in the life cycle of plants or animals as influenced by environmental conditions and climatic forcing. Phenological metrics provide information essential to quantify variations in the life cycle of these organisms. The metrics also allow us to estimate the speed at which living organisms respond to environmental changes. At the surface of the oceans, microscopic plant cells, so-called phytoplankton, grow and sometimes form blooms, with concentrations reaching up to 100 million cells per litre and extending over many square kilometres. These blooms can have a huge collective impact on ocean colour, because they contain chlorophyll and other auxiliary pigments, making them visible from space. Phytoplankton populations have a high turnover rate and can respond within hours to days to environmental perturbations. This makes them ideal indicators to study the first-level biological response to environmental changes. In the Earth's climate system, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dominates large-scale inter-annual variations in environmental conditions. It serves as a natural experiment to study and understand how phytoplankton in the ocean (and hence the organisms at higher trophic levels) respond to climate variability. Here, the ENSO influence on phytoplankton is estimated through variations in chlorophyll concentration, primary production and timings of initiation, peak, termination and duration of the growing period. The phenological variabilities are used to characterise phytoplankton responses to changes in some physical variables: sea surface temperature, sea surface height and wind. It is reported that in oceanic regions experiencing high annual variations in the solar cycle, such as in high latitudes, the influence of ENSO may be readily measured using annual mean anomalies of physical variables. In contrast, in oceanic regions where ENSO modulates a climate system characterised by a seasonal

  20. INTERACTION BETWEEN ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AND ENSO EVENTS

    OpenAIRE

    / /; Simei, XIE; Chenglan, BAO; Zhenhe, XUE; Lin, Zhang; Chunjiang, HAO

    1994-01-01

    In this paper, the theory of the cross-coupled correlation-resonance of two wave spectra is used to study the interaction between Antarctic sea ice and ENSO events. It is found that : (1) The principal period of the correlation time series oscillation is usually coincident with the principal period of sea ice itself. If the same periods of two elements were in resonance, the correlation oscillation period would be more significant. (2) The sea ice of the Ross Sea area with its principal perio...

  1. The Mercedario ice core - an excellent archive for ENSO reconstruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenk, Theo; Graesslin-Ciric, Anita; Tobler, Leonhard; Gäggeler, Heinz; Morgenstern, Uwe; Casassa, Gino; Lüthi, Martin; Schmitt, Jochen; Eichler, Anja; Schwikowski, Margit

    2015-04-01

    South America is a key region for the understanding of climate dynamics in the Southern Hemisphere such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). A direct ENSO signal can be expected to be preserved in glaciers located between 28 and 35° S, as the amount of winter precipitation in Central Chile is significantly correlated to the Southern Oscillation Index. We will present new results from a 104 m long ice core drilled in 2005 at La Ollada glacier on Cerro Mercedario located in the Central Argentinean Andes (31° 58'S, 70° 07'W, 6100 m asl.). Measured borehole temperatures, ranging from -16.7 ° C at 104 m depth to -18.5 ° C at 10 m below surface, are the lowest englacial temperatures that have been measured in Andean glaciers to date which is reflected in the complete absence of melt features in the core. Another rather unique characteristic of this core is the fact that the oxygen isotopic ratios of water (δ18O) do not show seasonal variation. The core was dated using a combination of independent tools such as (1) annual layer counting mainly based on dust related chemical impurities, (2) nuclear dating with 210Pb, 14C of particulate carbon (i.e. OC fraction) and tritium, (3) measurements of trace gases (i.e. CH4, N2O and CFCs) trapped in the ice enclosed air bubbles and (4) 2D glacier flow modelling. This allowed obtaining an accurate chronology for the last 350 years. The mean annual accumulation rate of the site was determined with 0.27 ± 0.03 m w.eq., principally allowing seasonal to sub-seasonal resolution. We will discuss transport and sources of chemical impurities and the relation between them, δ18O and tropical eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST). As expected for the site, we find δ18O and most chemical impurities to be strongly modulated by the ENSO allowing presentation of a new proxy based ENSO reconstruction back to ~1700 AD.

  2. A synthesis of ENSO effects on drylands in Australia, North America and South America

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Holmgren, M.; Stapp, P.; Dickman, C.; Gracia, C.; Graham, S.

    2005-01-01

    Fundamentally, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climatic and oceanographic phenomenon, but it has profound effects on terrestrial ecosystems. Although the ecological effects of ENSO are becoming increasingly known from a wide range of terrestrial ecosystems (Holmgren et al., 2001), their

  3. ENSO elicits opposing responses of semi-arid vegetation between Hemispheres

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Anzhi; Jia, Gensuo; Epstein, Howard E.; Xia, Jiangjiang

    2017-01-01

    Semi-arid ecosystems are key contributors to the global carbon cycle and may even dominate the inter-annual variability (IAV) and trends of the land carbon sink, driven largely by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The linkages between dynamics of semi-arid ecosystems and climate at the hemispheric scale however are not well known. Here, we use satellite data and climate observations from 2000 to 2014 to explore the impacts of ENSO on variability of semi-arid ecosystems, using the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition method. We show that the responses of semi-arid vegetation to ENSO occur in opposite directions, resulting from opposing controls of ENSO on precipitation between the Northern Hemisphere (positively correlated to ENSO) and the Southern Hemisphere (negatively correlated to ENSO). Also, the Southern Hemisphere, with a robust negative coupling of temperature and precipitation anomalies, exhibits stronger and faster responses of semi-arid ecosystems to ENSO than the Northern Hemisphere. Our findings suggest that natural coherent variability in semi-arid ecosystem productivity responded to ENSO in opposite ways between two hemispheres, which may imply potential prediction of global semi-arid ecosystem variability, particularly based on variability in tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures. PMID:28181570

  4. ENSO elicits opposing responses of semi-arid vegetation between Hemispheres.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Anzhi; Jia, Gensuo; Epstein, Howard E; Xia, Jiangjiang

    2017-02-09

    Semi-arid ecosystems are key contributors to the global carbon cycle and may even dominate the inter-annual variability (IAV) and trends of the land carbon sink, driven largely by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The linkages between dynamics of semi-arid ecosystems and climate at the hemispheric scale however are not well known. Here, we use satellite data and climate observations from 2000 to 2014 to explore the impacts of ENSO on variability of semi-arid ecosystems, using the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition method. We show that the responses of semi-arid vegetation to ENSO occur in opposite directions, resulting from opposing controls of ENSO on precipitation between the Northern Hemisphere (positively correlated to ENSO) and the Southern Hemisphere (negatively correlated to ENSO). Also, the Southern Hemisphere, with a robust negative coupling of temperature and precipitation anomalies, exhibits stronger and faster responses of semi-arid ecosystems to ENSO than the Northern Hemisphere. Our findings suggest that natural coherent variability in semi-arid ecosystem productivity responded to ENSO in opposite ways between two hemispheres, which may imply potential prediction of global semi-arid ecosystem variability, particularly based on variability in tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures.

  5. Imavere Sawmill is Stora Ensos Jewel in the Region / Seppo Vainio ; interv. Toivo Tänavsuu

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Vainio, Seppo

    2004-01-01

    Skandinaavia metsanduskontserni Stora Enso Timberi tegevuse juht Baltikumis vastab küsimustele, mis puudutavad Eesti suurima metsatööstuse Sylvesteri ostu 2003. aastal, Baltikumi üksuste osa Stora Enso tegevuses, Imavere saeveski valimist aasta välisinvestoriks. Vt. samas: Imavere saeveski eile ja täna. Tabel: "Välisinvestor 2004" nominendid

  6. How Volatile is ENSO for Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions and the Global Economy?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L. Chu (LanFen); M.J. McAleer (Michael); C-C. Chen (Chi-Chung)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractThis paper analyzes two indexes in order to capture the volatility inherent in El Niños Southern Oscillations (ENSO), develops the relationship between the strength of ENSO and greenhouse gas emissions, which increase as the economy grows, with carbon dioxide being the major

  7. How Volatile is ENSO for Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions and the Global Economy?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L-F. Chu (Lan-Fen); M.J. McAleer (Michael); C-C. Chen (Chi-Chung)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractThis paper analyzes two indexes in order to capture the volatility inherent in El Niños Southern Oscillations (ENSO), develops the relationship between the strength of ENSO and greenhouse gas emissions, which increase as the economy grows, with carbon dioxide being the major greenhouse

  8. Revisiting the Indian summer monsoon-ENSO links in the IPCC AR4 projections: A cautionary outlook

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roxy, Mathew; Patil, Nitin; Aparna, K.; Ashok, Karumuri

    2013-05-01

    The climate change experiments under the fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), namely the twentieth century simulations (20C3M) and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B, are revisited to study whether these models can reproduce the ENSO and ENSO Modoki patterns as the two important modes from statistical linear analysis as observed. The capability of the models in simulating realistic ENSO/ENSO Modoki teleconnections with the Indian summer monsoon, and also the implications for the future are also explored. Results from the study indicate that only ~ 1/4th of the models from 20C3M capture either ENSO or ENSO Modoki pattern in JJAS. Of this 1/4th, only two models simulate both ENSO and ENSO Modoki as important modes. Again, out of these two, only one model simulates both ENSO and ENSO Modoki as important modes during both summer and winter. It is also shown that the two models that demonstrate ENSO Modoki as well as ENSO associated variance in both 20C3M and SRESA1B represent the links of the ISMR with ENSO reasonably in 20C3M, but indicate opposite type of impacts in SREA1B. With the limited skills of the models in reproducing the monsoon, the ENSO and ENSO Modoki, it is difficult to reconcile that the teleconnections of a tropical driver can change like that. All these indicate the challenges associated with the limitations of the models in reproducing the variability of the monsoons and ENSO flavors, not to speak of failing in capturing the potential impacts of global warming as they are expected to. More research in improving the current day simulations, improving model capacity to simulate better by improving the Green House Gases (GHG) and aerosols in the models are some of the important and immediate steps that are necessary.

  9. Inter-decadal modulation of the impact of ENSO on Australia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Power, S.; Casey, T. (Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC (Australia)); Folland, C.; Colman, A. (Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Meteorological Office, Bracknell, Berkshire (United Kingdom)); Mehta, V. (Joint Center for Earth System Science, University of Maryland/NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, MD (United States))

    1999-05-01

    The success of an ENSO-based statistical rainfall prediction scheme and the influence of ENSO on Australia are shown to vary in association with a coherent, interdecadal oscillation in surface temperature over the Pacific ocean. When this interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) raises temperatures in the tropical Pacific ocean, there is no robust relationship between year-to-year Australian climate variations and ENSO. When the IPO lowers temperature in the same region, on the other hand, year-to-year ENSO variability is closely associated with year-to-year variability in rainfall, surface temperature, river flow and the domestic wheat crop yield. The contrast in ENSO's influence between the two phases of the IPO is quite remarkable. This highlights exciting new avenues for obtaining improved climate predictions. (orig.) With 4 figs., 2 tabs., 25 refs.

  10. 2015-16 ENSO, Precipitation, and the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamb, K. W.; Fayne, J.; Kalra, A.; Miller, W. P.; Lakshmi, V.; Tootle, G. A.; Piechota, T. C.

    2016-12-01

    The 2015-2016 El Nino event experienced two outcomes that were worth examination: the extreme warm temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and the remarkably low amount of rainfall experienced by the southwestern United States. Under normal El Nino events precipitation in the southwest US typically increases while precipitation in the northwest decreases. Predicted rainfall caused by the El Nino event was expected by many to provide assistance to the drought-ridden southwest. This impact was not observed in the data. This study identifies the teleconnections within the 500 mb zonal wind data and the relatively new Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) data. Using PCA analysis the study identifies the regions that saw increased precipitation from the rainfall during the recent ENSO event. The study also demonstrates the connection to the jet stream that was dominated by the "ridiculously resilient ridge". The slow moving Rossby waves in the jet stream, linked by others to a decrease in artic sea ice, is shown to have altered the typical impact of an ENSO event on the western United States.

  11. PDO modulation of ENSO effect on tropical cyclone rapid intensification in the western North Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xidong; Liu, Hailong

    2016-01-01

    This study investigates how the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) modulates the effect of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on tropical cyclone rapid intensification (RI) in the western North Pacific. The analysis shows that the interannual relationship between ENSO and annual RI number in warm PDO phases is strong and statistically significant. In cold PDO phases, however, there is no significant correlation between ENSO and RI on the interannual timescale. The enhancement of the interannual ENSO-RI relationship in warm PDO phases is mainly attributable to the change of the environmental vertical wind shear. The PDO in warm (cold) phases can strengthen (weaken) an El Niño event to increase (reduce) the effects of the warm pool of water over the equatorial Pacific in typhoon season by local diabatic heating. El Niño events are accompanied by the stronger Walker circulation in the equatorial Pacific in the warm PDO phase than in the cold PDO phase. In contrast, the Walker circulation pattern and amplitude associated with La Niña events is less affected by the alternate PDO phase. This tends to make the atmospheric response to ENSO stronger (weaker) in warm (cold) PDO phase, and so is the atmospheric teleconnection of ENSO. Our results indicate that the stratification of ENSO-based statistical RI forecast by the PDO can greatly improve the accuracy of statistical RI predictions.

  12. ENSO and PDO-related climate variability impacts on Midwestern United States crop yields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henson, Chasity; Market, Patrick; Lupo, Anthony; Guinan, Patrick

    2017-05-01

    An analysis of crop yields for the state of Missouri was completed to determine if an interannual or multidecadal variability existed as a result of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Corn and soybean yields were recorded in kilograms per hectare for each of the six climate regions of Missouri. An analysis using the Mokhov "method of cycles" demonstrated interannual, interdecadal, and multidecadal variations in crop yields. Cross-spectral analysis was used to determine which region was most impacted by ENSO and PDO influenced seasonal (April-September) temperature and precipitation. Interannual (multidecadal) variations found in the spectral analysis represent a relationship to ENSO (PDO) phase, while interdecadal variations represent a possible interaction between ENSO and PDO. Average crop yields were then calculated for each combination of ENSO and PDO phase, displaying a pronounced increase in corn and soybean yields when ENSO is warm and PDO is positive. Climate regions 1, 2, 4, and 6 displayed significant differences ( p value of 0.10 or less) in yields between El Niño and La Niña years, representing 55-70 % of Missouri soybean and corn productivity, respectively. Final results give the opportunity to produce seasonal predictions of corn and soybean yields, specific to each climate region in Missouri, based on the combination of ENSO and PDO phases.

  13. Drivers of coupled model ENSO error dynamics and the spring predictability barrier

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larson, Sarah M.; Kirtman, Ben P.

    2017-06-01

    Despite recent improvements in ENSO simulations, ENSO predictions ultimately remain limited by error growth and model inadequacies. Determining the accompanying dynamical processes that drive the growth of certain types of errors may help the community better recognize which error sources provide an intrinsic limit to predictability. This study applies a dynamical analysis to previously developed CCSM4 error ensemble experiments that have been used to model noise-driven error growth. Analysis reveals that ENSO-independent error growth is instigated via a coupled instability mechanism. Daily error fields indicate that persistent stochastic zonal wind stress perturbations (τx^' } ) near the equatorial dateline activate the coupled instability, first driving local SST and anomalous zonal current changes that then induce upwelling anomalies and a clear thermocline response. In particular, March presents a window of opportunity for stochastic τx^' } to impose a lasting influence on the evolution of eastern Pacific SST through December, suggesting that stochastic τx^' } is an important contributor to the spring predictability barrier. Stochastic winds occurring in other months only temporarily affect eastern Pacific SST for 2-3 months. Comparison of a control simulation with an ENSO cycle and the ENSO-independent error ensemble experiments reveals that once the instability is initiated, the subsequent error growth is modulated via an ENSO-like mechanism, namely the seasonal strength of the Bjerknes feedback. Furthermore, unlike ENSO events that exhibit growth through the fall, the growth of ENSO-independent SST errors terminates once the seasonal strength of the Bjerknes feedback weakens in fall. Results imply that the heat content supplied by the subsurface precursor preceding the onset of an ENSO event is paramount to maintaining the growth of the instability (or event) through fall.

  14. ENSO-Modulated Cyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Felton, C.S.; Subrahmanyam, B.; Murty, V.S.N.

    (October-December) averaged 925 hPa wind magnitude (m s-1) composites during (a) El Niño events and (b) La Niña events. (Top) Vectors represent wind anomalies during each ENSO phase where p < 0.1 using a Student’s t test relative to the 33-year mean... (a) OLR (W m-2) and (b) GPCP precipitation anomalies (mm day-1) between La Niña and El Niño. Regions enclosed by contouring represent differences in the anomalies between El Niño and La Niña at p < 0.1 using a Student’s t test. Negative OLR values...

  15. Characterizing unforced multi-decadal variability of ENSO: a case study with the GFDL CM2.1 coupled GCM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atwood, A. R.; Battisti, D. S.; Wittenberg, A. T.; Roberts, W. H. G.; Vimont, D. J.

    2017-10-01

    Large multi-decadal fluctuations of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability simulated in a 4000-year pre-industrial control run of GFDL CM2.1 have received considerable attention due to implications for constraining the causes of past and future changes in ENSO. We evaluated the mechanisms of this low-frequency ENSO modulation through analysis of the extreme epochs of CM2.1 as well as through the use of a linearized intermediate-complexity model of the tropical Pacific, which produces reasonable emulations of observed ENSO variability. We demonstrate that the low-frequency ENSO modulation can be represented by the simplest model of a linear, stationary process, even in the highly nonlinear CM2.1. These results indicate that CM2.1's ENSO modulation is driven by transient processes that operate at interannual or shorter time scales. Nonlinearities and/or multiplicative noise in CM2.1 likely exaggerate the ENSO modulation by contributing to the overly active ENSO variability. In contrast, simulations with the linear model suggest that intrinsically-generated tropical Pacific decadal mean state changes do not contribute to the extreme-ENSO epochs in CM2.1. Rather, these decadal mean state changes actually serve to damp the intrinsically-generated ENSO modulation, primarily by stabilizing the ENSO mode during strong-ENSO epochs. Like most coupled General Circulation Models, CM2.1 suffers from large biases in its ENSO simulation, including ENSO variance that is nearly twice that seen in the last 50 years of observations. We find that CM2.1's overly strong ENSO variance directly contributes to its strong multi-decadal modulation through broadening the distribution of epochal variance, which increases like the square of the long-term variance. These results suggest that the true spectrum of unforced ENSO modulation is likely substantially narrower than that in CM2.1. However, relative changes in ENSO modulation are similar between CM2.1, the linear model tuned to

  16. Do regions outside the tropical Pacific influence ENSO through atmospheric teleconnections?

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Dayan, H.; Izumo, T.; Vialard, J.; Lengaigne, M.; Masson, S

    This paper aims at identifying oceanic regions outside the tropical Pacific, which may influence the El Ni�o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) through interannual modulation of equatorial Pacific winds An Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) 7...

  17. ENSO-based probabilistic forecasts of March-May U.S. tornado and hail activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lepore, Chiara; Tippett, Michael K.; Allen, John T.

    2017-09-01

    Extended logistic regression is used to predict March-May severe convective storm (SCS) activity based on the preceding December-February (DJF) El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state. The spatially resolved probabilistic forecasts are verified against U.S. tornado counts, hail events, and two environmental indices for severe convection. The cross-validated skill is positive for roughly a quarter of the U.S. Overall, indices are predicted with more skill than are storm reports, and hail events are predicted with more skill than tornado counts. Skill is higher in the cool phase of ENSO (La Niña like) when overall SCS activity is higher. SCS forecasts based on the predicted DJF ENSO state from coupled dynamical models initialized in October of the previous year extend the lead time with only a modest reduction in skill compared to forecasts based on the observed DJF ENSO state.

  18. NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostics Discussion

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The ENSO Diagnostics Discussion (EDD) is issued by NOAA Climate Prediction Center each month on the Thursday between the 5th and 11th with few exceptions (major...

  19. The nonstationary impact of local temperature changes and ENSO on extreme precipitation at the global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Qiaohong; Miao, Chiyuan; Qiao, Yuanyuan; Duan, Qingyun

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and local temperature are important drivers of extreme precipitation. Understanding the impact of ENSO and temperature on the risk of extreme precipitation over global land will provide a foundation for risk assessment and climate-adaptive design of infrastructure in a changing climate. In this study, nonstationary generalized extreme value distributions were used to model extreme precipitation over global land for the period 1979-2015, with ENSO indicator and temperature as covariates. Risk factors were estimated to quantify the contrast between the influence of different ENSO phases and temperature. The results show that extreme precipitation is dominated by ENSO over 22% of global land and by temperature over 26% of global land. With a warming climate, the risk of high-intensity daily extreme precipitation increases at high latitudes but decreases in tropical regions. For ENSO, large parts of North America, southern South America, and southeastern and northeastern China are shown to suffer greater risk in El Niño years, with more than double the chance of intense extreme precipitation in El Niño years compared with La Niña years. Moreover, regions with more intense precipitation are more sensitive to ENSO. Global climate models were used to investigate the changing relationship between extreme precipitation and the covariates. The risk of extreme, high-intensity precipitation increases across high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere but decreases in middle and lower latitudes under a warming climate scenario, and will likely trigger increases in severe flooding and droughts across the globe. However, there is some uncertainties associated with the influence of ENSO on predictions of future extreme precipitation, with the spatial extent and risk varying among the different models.

  20. Seasonality and Predictability of the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode: ENSO Forcing and Internal Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Y.

    2015-12-01

    This study evaluates the relative contributions to the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode of interannual variability from the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing and ocean-atmosphere feedbacks internal to the Indian Ocean. The ENSO forcing and internal variability is extracted by conducting a 10-member coupled simulation for 1950-2012 where sea surface temperature (SST) is restored to the observed anomalies over the tropical Pacific but interactive with the atmosphere over the rest of the world ocean. In these experiments, the ensemble mean is due to ENSO forcing and the inter-member difference arises from internal variability of the climate system independent of ENSO. These elements contribute one third and two thirds of the total IOD variance, respectively. Both types of IOD variability develop into an east-west dipole pattern due to Bjerknes feedback and peak in September-November. The ENSO forced and internal IOD modes differ in several important ways. The forced IOD mode develops in August with a broad meridional pattern, and eventually evolves into the Indian Ocean Basin mode; while the internal IOD mode grows earlier in June, is more confined to the equator and decays rapidly after October. The internal IOD mode is more skewed than the ENSO forced response. The destructive interference of ENSO forcing and internal variability can explain early-terminating IOD events, referred to IOD-like perturbations that fail to grow during boreal summer. Our results have implications for predictability. Internal variability, as represented by pre-season sea surface height anomalies off Sumatra, contributes to predictability considerably. Including this indicator of internal variability, together with ENSO, improves the predictability of IOD.

  1. Research on the Relationship of ENSO and the Frequency of Extreme Precipitation Events in China

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Wei; Zhai, Panmao; Cai, Jinhui

    2017-01-01

    Based on a daily precipitation observation dataset of 743 stations in China from 1951–2004, the Γ distribution function is used to calculate the probability distribution of daily precipitation and to define extreme precipitation events. Based on this, the relationship of ENSO and the frequency of extreme precipitation events is studied. Results reveal that ENSO events have impact on extreme precipitation events, with different magnitudes at different regions and seasons. In general, during wi...

  2. A possible explanation for the divergent projection of ENSO amplitude change under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lin; Li, Tim; Yu, Yongqiang; Behera, Swadhin K.

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the greatest climate variability on interannual time scale, yet what controls ENSO amplitude changes under global warming (GW) is uncertain. Here we show that the fundamental factor that controls the divergent projections of ENSO amplitude change within 20 coupled general circulation models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 is the change of climatologic mean Pacific subtropical cell (STC), whose strength determines the meridional structure of ENSO perturbations and thus the anomalous thermocline response to the wind forcing. The change of the thermocline response is a key factor regulating the strength of Bjerknes thermocline and zonal advective feedbacks, which ultimately lead to the divergent changes in ENSO amplitude. Furthermore, by forcing an ocean general circulation mode with the change of zonal mean zonal wind stress estimated by a simple theoretical model, a weakening of the STC in future is obtained. Such a change implies that ENSO variability might strengthen under GW, which could have a profound socio-economic consequence.

  3. Evidence of reduced mid-Holocene ENSO variance on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonard, N. D.; Welsh, K. J.; Lough, J. M.; Feng, Y.-x.; Pandolfi, J. M.; Clark, T. R.; Zhao, J.-x.

    2016-09-01

    Globally, coral reefs are under increasing pressure both through direct anthropogenic influence and increases in climate extremes. Understanding past climate dynamics that negatively affected coral reef growth is imperative for both improving management strategies and for modeling coral reef responses to a changing climate. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the primary source of climate variability at interannual timescales on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), northeastern Australia. Applying continuous wavelet transforms to visually assessed coral luminescence intensity in massive Porites corals from the central GBR we demonstrate that these records reliably reproduce ENSO variance patterns for the period 1880-1985. We then applied this method to three subfossil corals from the same reef to reconstruct ENSO variance from ~5200 to 4300 years before present (yBP). We show that ENSO events were less extreme and less frequent after ~5200 yBP on the GBR compared to modern records. Growth characteristics of the corals are consistent with cooler sea surface temperatures (SSTs) between 5200 and 4300 yBP compared to both the millennia prior (~6000 yBP) and modern records. Understanding ENSO dynamics in response to SST variability at geological timescales will be important for improving predictions of future ENSO response to a rapidly warming climate.

  4. Response of ENSO amplitude to global warming in CESM large ensemble: uncertainty due to internal variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Xiao-Tong; Hui, Chang; Yeh, Sang-Wook

    2017-08-01

    El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of variability in the coupled ocean-atmospheric system. Future projections of ENSO change under global warming are highly uncertain among models. In this study, the effect of internal variability on ENSO amplitude change in future climate projections is investigated based on a 40-member ensemble from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) project. A large uncertainty is identified among ensemble members due to internal variability. The inter-member diversity is associated with a zonal dipole pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) change in the mean along the equator, which is similar to the second empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) in the unforced control simulation. The uncertainty in CESM-LE is comparable in magnitude to that among models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), suggesting the contribution of internal variability to the intermodel uncertainty in ENSO amplitude change. However, the causations between changes in ENSO amplitude and the mean state are distinct between CESM-LE and CMIP5 ensemble. The CESM-LE results indicate that a large ensemble of 15 members is needed to separate the relative contributions to ENSO amplitude change over the twenty-first century between forced response and internal variability.

  5. A possible explanation for the divergent projection of ENSO amplitude change under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lin; Li, Tim; Yu, Yongqiang; Behera, Swadhin K.

    2017-02-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the greatest climate variability on interannual time scale, yet what controls ENSO amplitude changes under global warming (GW) is uncertain. Here we show that the fundamental factor that controls the divergent projections of ENSO amplitude change within 20 coupled general circulation models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 is the change of climatologic mean Pacific subtropical cell (STC), whose strength determines the meridional structure of ENSO perturbations and thus the anomalous thermocline response to the wind forcing. The change of the thermocline response is a key factor regulating the strength of Bjerknes thermocline and zonal advective feedbacks, which ultimately lead to the divergent changes in ENSO amplitude. Furthermore, by forcing an ocean general circulation mode with the change of zonal mean zonal wind stress estimated by a simple theoretical model, a weakening of the STC in future is obtained. Such a change implies that ENSO variability might strengthen under GW, which could have a profound socio-economic consequence.

  6. Integration of ENSO Signal Power Through Hydrological Processes in the Little River Watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keener, V. W.; Jones, J. W.; Bosch, D. D.; Cho, J.

    2011-12-01

    The relationship of the El-Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to hydrology is typically discussed in terms of the ability to separate significantly different hydrologic variable responses versus the anomaly that has taken place. Most of the work relating ENSO trends to proxy variables had been done on precipitation records until the mid 1990s, at which point increasing numbers of studies started to focus on ENSO relationships with streamflow as well as other environmental variables. The signals in streamflow are typically complex, representing the integration of both climatic, landscape, and anthropological responses that are able to strengthen the inherent ENSO signal in chaotic regional precipitation data. There is a need to identify climate non-stationarities related to ENSO and their links to watershed-scale outcomes. For risk-management in particular, inter-annual modes of climate variability and their seasonal expression are of interest. In this study, we analyze 36 years of historical monthly streamflow data from the Little River Watershed (LWR), a coastal plain ecosystem in Georgia, in conjunction with wavelet spectral analysis and modeling via the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Using both spectral and physical models allows us to identify the mechanism by which the ENSO signal power in surface and simulated groundwater flow is strengthened as compared to precipitation. The clear increase in the power of the inter-annual climate signal is demonstrated by shared patterns in water budget and exceedance curves, as well as in high ENSO related energy in the 95% significant wavelet spectra for each variable and the NINO 3.4 index. In the LRW, the power of the ENSO teleconnection is increased in both the observed and simulated stream flow through the mechanisms of groundwater flow and interflow, through confinement by a geological layer, the Hawthorn Formation. This non-intuitive relationship between ENSO signal strength and streamflow could prove to be

  7. ENSO and East Asian winter monsoon relationship modulation associated with the anomalous northwest Pacific anticyclone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Ji-Won; An, Soon-Il; Jun, Sang-Yoon; Park, Hey-Jin; Yeh, Sang-Wook

    2017-08-01

    Using observational datasets and numerical model experiments, the mechanism on the slowly varying change in the relationship between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) is investigated. The decadal-window (11-, 15-, and 21-year) moving correlations show a significant change in the boreal wintertime ENSO-EAWM relationship between two sub-periods of 1976‒1992 and 1997‒2013. Such recent change in ENSO-EAWM relationship is mainly attributed to the changes in the intensity and zonal location of the anomalous lower-tropospheric northwest Pacific anticyclone (NWP-AC). NWP-AC commonly develops near the region of the Philippine Sea during the ENSO's peak phase and plays an important role of bridging the tropical convection and mid-latitude teleconnection. On one hand, the intensity of the NWP-AC is influenced by the interdecadal variation in a linkage between ENSO and the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) variability, referring that a strong connection between the Pacific and Indian Oceans results in the strengthening of NWP-AC response to ENSO. On the other hand, the zonal displacement of the NWP-AC is associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). That is, the tropical Pacific mean state (i.e., zonal SST gradient between climatologically warm western Pacific and cold eastern Pacific)—strengthened by either the negative PDO phase or the positive AMO phase—drives the anomalous ENSO-induced convection to be shifted to the west. With this westward shift, the zonal center of the NWP-AC also migrates westward over the Philippine Islands and exerts stronger connection between ENSO and EAWM. In contrast, the relaxed zonal SST contrast associated with either the positive PDO phase or the negative AMO phase tends to exhibit weaker ENSO-EAWM relationship via both of eastward shifted zonal centers of the anomalous ENSO-induced convection and the NWP-AC. Finally, a

  8. ENSO's non-stationary and non-Gaussian character: the role of climate shifts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boucharel, J.; Dewitte, B.; Garel, B.; Du Penhoat, Y.

    2009-07-01

    El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of climate variability in the Pacific, having socio-economic impacts on surrounding regions. ENSO exhibits significant modulation on decadal to inter-decadal time scales which is related to changes in its characteristics (onset, amplitude, frequency, propagation, and predictability). Some of these characteristics tend to be overlooked in ENSO studies, such as its asymmetry (the number and amplitude of warm and cold events are not equal) and the deviation of its statistics from those of the Gaussian distribution. These properties could be related to the ability of the current generation of coupled models to predict ENSO and its modulation. Here, ENSO's non-Gaussian nature and asymmetry are diagnosed from in situ data and a variety of models (from intermediate complexity models to full-physics coupled general circulation models (CGCMs)) using robust statistical tools initially designed for financial mathematics studies. In particular α-stable laws are used as theoretical background material to measure (and quantify) the non-Gaussian character of ENSO time series and to estimate the skill of ``naïve'' statistical models in producing deviation from Gaussian laws and asymmetry. The former are based on non-stationary processes dominated by abrupt changes in mean state and empirical variance. It is shown that the α-stable character of ENSO may result from the presence of climate shifts in the time series. Also, cool (warm) periods are associated with ENSO statistics having a stronger (weaker) tendency towards Gaussianity and lower (greater) asymmetry. This supports the hypothesis of ENSO being rectified by changes in mean state through nonlinear processes. The relationship between changes in mean state and nonlinearity (skewness) is further investigated both in the Zebiak and Cane (1987)'s model and the models of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC). Whereas there is a clear relationship in all

  9. Isotopic constraints on methane's global sources and ENSO-dependence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaefer, Hinrich; Mikaloff Fletcher, Sara; Veidt, Cora; Lassey, Keith; Brailsford, Gordon; Bromley, Tony; Dlugokencky, Ed; Englund Michel, Sylvia; Miller, John; Levin, Ingeborg; Lowe, Dave; Martin, Ross; Vaughn, Bruce; White, James; Nichol, Sylvia

    2017-04-01

    Atmospheric levels of the potent greenhouse gas methane (CH4) have been rising since the industrial revolution, except for a plateau during the early 2000s. Stable carbon isotopes in methane (delta-13CH4) provide constraints on the budget changes associated with the plateau's onset and its end. We present a reconstruction of annual global delta-13CH4 averages based on a global network of stations, whose trends are indicative of global methane source and sink activity. A box model analysis shows that from the mid-1990s methane emissions with the characteristic thermogenic delta-13CH4 signature reduced, implying persistently lower emissions from fossil fuel productions as the cause of the plateau. However, variations in hydroxyl, the main CH4 sink, provide an equably plausible explanation for the plateau onset that may also account for strong variability in emission-vs-removal rates during the plateau period. In contrast, the renewed CH4 rise since 2006 can only be explained by increasing emissions with a biogenic isotope signature, i.e. agriculture or wetlands. We present correlation studies that test whether ENSO activity controls atmospheric delta-13CH4, and by extension methane levels, through tropical wetland emissions.

  10. ENSO's far reaching connection to Indian cold waves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratnam, J V; Behera, Swadhin K; Annamalai, H; Ratna, Satyaban B; Rajeevan, M; Yamagata, Toshio

    2016-11-23

    During boreal winters, cold waves over India are primarily due to transport of cold air from higher latitudes. However, the processes associated with these cold waves are not yet clearly understood. Here by diagnosing a suite of datasets, we explore the mechanisms leading to the development and maintenance of these cold waves. Two types of cold waves are identified based on observed minimum surface temperature and statistical analysis. The first type (TYPE1), also the dominant one, depicts colder than normal temperatures covering most parts of the country while the second type (TYPE2) is more regional, with significant cold temperatures only noticeable over northwest India. Quite interestingly the first (second) type is associated with La Niña (El Niño) like conditions, suggesting that both phases of ENSO provide a favorable background for the occurrence of cold waves over India. During TYPE1 cold wave events, a low-level cyclonic anomaly generated over the Indian region as an atmospheric response to the equatorial convective anomalies is seen advecting cold temperatures into India and maintaining the cold waves. In TYPE2 cold waves, a cyclonic anomaly generated over west India anomalously brings cold winds to northwest India causing cold waves only in those parts.

  11. Twentieth century ENSO-related precipitation mean states in twentieth century reanalysis, reconstructed precipitation and CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Ni; Arkin, Phillip A.

    2017-05-01

    El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related precipitation during the entire twentieth century is compared among the twentieth century reanalysis (20CR), a statistically reconstructed precipitation dataset (REC) and 30 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. Empirical orthogonal functions, ENSO-related precipitation composites based on sea surface temperature (SST)-constructed ENSO index and singular value decomposition (SVD) are employed to extract ENSO-related precipitation/SST signals in each dataset. With the background trend being removed in all of the data, our results show that the REC and the 20CR resemble both in their precipitation climatology and ENSO-related precipitation results. The biases in the CMIP5 models precipitation climatology such as dry equator over the Pacific Ocean, "double-intertropical convergence zones (ITCZs)" and overly zonal Southern Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) are major reasons for lowering spatial correlations with the REC and the 20CR precipitation climatology. Two groups of CMIP5 models are built based on severity of these biases in their precipitation background and the spatial correlations of ENSO-related precipitation with the observations. Compared with the group with more severe biases in its precipitation climatology, the group with smaller biases tends to produce more ENSO-like precipitation patterns, simulate more realistic mean magnitude and seasonal variability of ENSO precipitation signals, as well as generating better ENSO-related SST/precipitation correlation patterns produced in its SVD analysis. The ENSO-related precipitation biases in the CMIP5 models over the western Pacific and Indian Ocean, as well as the equatorial Pacific, are strongly related with their precipitation climatology biases over these regions. The ENSO-related precipitation biases over the off-equator eastern Pacific Ocean are associated with both the "double-ITCZs" biases in the precipitation climatology and the ENSO

  12. Improved predictability of droughts over southern Africa using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index and ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manatsa, Desmond; Mushore, Terrence; Lenouo, Andre

    2017-01-01

    The provision of timely and reliable climate information on which to base management decisions remains a critical component in drought planning for southern Africa. In this observational study, we have not only proposed a forecasting scheme which caters for timeliness and reliability but improved relevance of the climate information by using a novel drought index called the standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), instead of the traditional precipitation only based index, the standardised precipitation index (SPI). The SPEI which includes temperature and other climatic factors in its construction has a more robust connection to ENSO than the SPI. Consequently, the developed ENSO-SPEI prediction scheme can provide quantitative information about the spatial extent and severity of predicted drought conditions in a way that reflects more closely the level of risk in the global warming context of the sub region. However, it is established that the ENSO significant regional impact is restricted only to the period December-March, implying a revisit to the traditional ENSO-based forecast scheme which essentially divides the rainfall season into the two periods, October to December and January to March. Although the prediction of ENSO events has increased with the refinement of numerical models, this work has demonstrated that the prediction of drought impacts related to ENSO is also a reality based only on observations. A large temporal lag is observed between the development of ENSO phenomena (typically in May of the previous year) and the identification of regional SPEI defined drought conditions. It has been shown that using the Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum's (SARCOF) traditional 3-month averaged Nino 3.4 SST index (June to August) as a predictor does not have an added advantage over using only the May SST index values. In this regard, the extended lead time and improved skill demonstrated in this study could immensely benefit

  13. ENSO-driven flooding events in East Java, Indonesia during the past Millennium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodysill, J. R.; Russell, J. M.; Vuille, M. F.; Lunghino, B.; Bijaksana, S.

    2013-12-01

    Recent severe El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events have highlighted the importance of understanding the mechanisms driving ENSO variability and how ENSO relates to extreme precipitation anomalies. Expanding the record of ENSO-driven precipitation anomalies over the last millennium through paleoclimate reconstructions illuminates how ENSO has varied in the past through periods of relatively enhanced and reduced radiative forcing, namely the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA). Modern precipitation anomalies in East Java, Indonesia are strongly correlated to variations in ENSO, where La Niña events correspond to positive precipitation anomalies (Hendon, 2003, Journal of Climate). We present the first record of runoff events from lake sediment deposits in East Java, Indonesia spanning the last millennium, which historically occur during strong La Niña events. Our record reveals significant variations in East Java flooding frequency, with more frequent floods occurring from 850 to 1350 CE and after 1800 CE. This pattern is also observed in surface runoff records from the eastern tropical Pacific (Moy et al., 2002, Nature; Conroy et al., 2008, Quaternary Science Reviews), which lie in a region where modern positive precipitation anomalies are closely tied to El Niño events. Extreme rainfall events occurring on both sides of the tropical Pacific on centennial timescales may indicate that both El Niño and La Niña activity were higher during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the most recent two centuries, when radiative forcing was high, and that ENSO activity was reduced during the Little Ice Age, when radiative forcing was weak.

  14. Tibetan Plateau capacitor effect during the summer preceding ENSO: from the Yellow River climate perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Rui; Wu, Zhiwei; Zhang, Peng

    2017-09-01

    It is well recognized that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may exert a direct impact on the East Asian summer monsoon rainfall through modulating the Philippine Sea anticyclone variability. Such ENSO associated influence is evident in the monsoon region, i.e., Southeast China, the Yangtze River, Korean Peninsula and Japan. It remains unclear whether and how this ENSO related effect can reach the Yellow River region, a monsoon/arid transition region. In this study, results show that the year-to-year variations of the Yellow River summer rainfall can be indirectly influenced by ENSO, during its developing phase. The western Tibetan Plateau snow cover (WTPSC) may act as a "capacitor", helping ENSO signal to reach the Yellow River region. During the El Niño developing spring, the associated diabatic heating in Pacific region can excite an anomalous cyclone over the plateau and anomalous upward flows over the western plateau. Such circulation configuration favors an excessive WTPSC anomaly in spring. The more WTPSC may increase the surface albedo, decrease the absorbed net shortwave radiation and in turn intensify the WTPSC. Through such snow-albedo feedback process, the excessive WTPSC anomaly may strengthen and persist through summer, which may induce two noticeable wave trains in the upper and lower troposphere propagating northeastward to the Yellow River region. Associated with the wave trains, a low pressure anomaly prevails over northeast China. To the southwest side of the anomalous low pressure, the abnormal northerly wind may bring large volumes of dry cold air with little moisture to the Yellow River region, leading to the anomalous drought there. During the La Niña developing summer, the situation tends to be opposite. As such, the ENSO associated influence is tied to the interannual variations of the following summer Yellow River precipitation, with the development of ENSO from spring.

  15. Climate Change Impact on ENSO and its Teleconnections with South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Natori, A. A.; Grimm, A. M.

    2006-12-01

    We analyze the interannual variability of the summer monsoon rainy season in South America and its relationship with SST as simulated by the ocean-atmosphere coupled model ECHAM5-OM for present-day conditions (1961-1990) and future A2 emission scenario (2071-2100). The first mode of model precipitation variability, both in spring and summer, is associated with El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In both seasons it features a dipole of anomalies between northern and southeastern South America. These modes correspond, with some differences, to the first variability mode of observed spring precipitation, and to the third variability mode of observed summer precipitation, which are also associated with ENSO. While the relationship between ENSO events and precipitation variability in northern South America strengthens for the A2 scenario, it weakens in southeastern South America, especially in spring, which is presently the season with strongest ENSO-related impact. The ENSO related SST anomalies in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific are stronger in the enhanced emission scenario, which probably explains the stronger connection with northern Brazil via anomalous Walker circulation. However, the ENSO-related latitudinal tropical-subtropical SST gradient in eastern South Pacific is weaker in the projected climate, which reduces the Rossby-wave propagation to southeastern South America, thus weakening the ENSO impact on the circulation and precipitation in this region. Acknowledgments. This study was supported by MMA-Brazil/PROBIO (GEF and BIRD), Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cientifico e Tecnologico (CNPq Brazil), and Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (CRN055).

  16. ENSO in the CMIP5 simulations: lifecycles, diversity, and responses to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chen; Cane, Mark A.; Wittenberg, Andrew T.; Chen, Dake

    2017-04-01

    Focusing on ENSO seasonal phase locking, diversity in peak location and propagation direction, as well as the El Niño-La Niña asymmetry in amplitude, duration and transition, a set of empirical probabilistic diagnostics (EPD) is introduced to investigate how the ENSO behaviors reflected in SST may change in a warming climate. EPD is first applied to estimate the natural variation of ENSO behaviors. In the observations El Niños and La Niñas mainly propagate westward and peak in boreal winter. El Niños occur more at the eastern Pacific while La Niñas prefer the central Pacific. In a pre-industrial control simulation of the GFDL CM2.1 model, the El Niño-La Niña asymmetry is substantial. La Niña characteristics generally agree with observations but El Niños do not, typically propagating eastward and showing no obvious seasonal phase locking. So an alternative approach is using a stochastically forced simulation of a nonlinear data-driven model, which exhibits reasonably realistic ENSO behaviors and natural variation ranges. EPD is then applied to assess the potential changes of ENSO behaviors in the 21st century using CMIP5 models. Other than the increasing SST climatology, projected changes in many aspects of ENSO reflected in SST anomalies are heavily model-dependent and generally within the range of natural variation. Shifts favoring eastward propagating El Niño and La Niña are the most robust. Given various model biases for the 20th century and lack of sufficient model agreements for the 21st century projection, whether the projected changes for ENSO behaviors would actually take place remains largely uncertain.

  17. The atmospheric electrical index for ENSO modoki: Is ENSO modoki one of the factors responsible for the warming trend slowdown?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulkarni, Madhuri N.; Siingh, Devendraa

    2016-01-01

    Like the southern oscillation index (SOI) based on the pressure difference between Tahiti (17.5°S, 150°W) and Darwin (12.5°S, 130°E), we propose the new atmospheric electrical index (AEI) taking the difference in the model calculated atmospheric electrical columnar resistance (Rc) which involves planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) and aerosol concentration derived from the satellite measurements. This is the first non-oceanic index capable of differentiating between the conventional and modoki La Niña and El Niño both and may be useful in the future air-sea coupling studies and as a complementary to the oceanic indices. As the PBLH variation over Darwin is within 10% of its long term mean, a strong rise in the Rc over Darwin during the modoki period supports modoki’s connection with aerosol loading. Our correlation results show that the intensity of El Niño (La Niña) event is almost independent (not independent) of its duration and the possibility of ENSO modoki being one of the factors responsible for the warming trend slowdown (WTS). PMID:27040173

  18. A meridional dipole in premonsoon Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone activity induced by ENSO: TROPICAL CYCLONES, MONSOON AND ENSO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Balaguru, Karthik [Marine Sciences Laboratory, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Seattle Washington USA; Leung, L. Ruby [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Lu, Jian [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Foltz, Gregory R. [Physical Oceanography Division, Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Miami Florida USA

    2016-06-27

    Analysis of Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone (TC) track data for the month of May during 1980-2013 reveals a meridional dipole in TC intensification: TC intensification rates increased in the northern Bay and decreased in the southern Bay. The dipole was driven by an increase in low-level vorticity and atmospheric humidity in the northern Bay, making the environment more favorable for TC intensification, and enhanced vertical wind shear in the southern Bay, tending to reduce TC development. These environmental changes were associated with a strengthening of the monsoon circulation for the month of May, driven by a La Nin˜a-like shift in tropical Pacific SSTs andassociated tropical wave dynamics. Analysis of a suite of climate models fromthe CMIP5 archive for the 150-year historical period shows that most models correctly reproduce the link between ENSO and Bay of Bengal TC activity through the monsoon at interannual timescales. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario the same CMIP5 models produce an El Nin˜o like warming trend in the equatorial Pacific, tending to weaken the monsoon circulation. These results suggest

  19. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO and global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Nyenzi

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available It is widely accepted by the international scientific community that human activities have increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG and aerosols since the pre-industrial era. This increase has contributed to most of the warming (0.6±0.2°C observed over the 20th century, land areas warming more than the oceans, with the 1990s very likely to be the warmest decade of the 20th century (IPCC, 2001. How this warming influences the occurrence, severity and frequency of ENSO episodes remains highly uncertain. The IPCC (2001 assessment of the scientific literature found insufficient evidence to suggest any direct attribution between increase in ENSO events that occurred in the last 20 to 30 years of the 20th century and global warming (IPCC, 2001. However, assessments carried out since then (e.g. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4, in preparations suggest El Niño events have become more frequent, persistent and intense during the last 20 to 30 years compared to the previous 100 years. Attribution to global warming, however, remains highly uncertain. Efforts to simulate and model past, present and future behaviour of ENSO under a warming world due to enhanced GHG concentrations produce conflicting results. Since substantial internally-generated variability of ENSO behaviour on multi-decadal to century timescales occurs in long, unforced atmospheric-oceanic general circulation model (AOGCM simulations, the attribution of past and future changes in ENSO amplitude and frequency to external forcing like GHG concentrations cannot be made with certainty. Such attribution would require extensive use of ensemble climate experiments or long experiments with stabilised GHG forcing. Although there are now better ENSO simulations in AOGCM, further model improvements are needed to simulate a more realistic Pacific climatology and seasonal cycle of the key modes influencing the climate of the region, as well as more realistic ENSO variability

  20. ENSO dynamics and diversity resulting from the recharge oscillator interacting with the slab ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Yanshan; Dommenget, Dietmar; Frauen, Claudia; Wang, Gang; Wales, Scott

    2016-03-01

    El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the leading mode of interannual global climate variability, which in its essence is often described by the equatorial dynamics of the recharge oscillator with a fixed pattern. Here we explore the idea that ENSO can be simulated in a model with a fixed pattern of sea surface temperature variability following the recharge oscillator mechanism, which interacts with the thermodynamic red noise of a slab ocean. This model is capable of simulating the leading modes of sea surface temperature variability in the tropical Pacific in good agreement with the observations and most coupled general circulation models. ENSO dynamics, amplitude, seasonality, the structure of the leading patterns, its meridional extension, its variations in an eastern and central Pacific pattern and associated positive feedbacks are all influenced and simulated well by including the interaction of recharge oscillator and the thermodynamic coupling to the slab ocean model. We further point out that much of the ENSO diversity in the spatial structure is a reflection of this interaction. However, it also has to be noted that some equatorial dynamics are missing in this model and in coupled general circulation models that are important for the ENSO diversity.

  1. ENSO forced and local variability of North Tropical Atlantic SST: model simulations and biases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yun; Xie, Shang-Ping; Wu, Lixin; Kosaka, Yu; Li, Jianping

    2017-04-01

    Remote forcing from El Niño-Southern oscillation (ENSO) and local ocean-atmosphere feedback are important for climate variability over the North Tropical Atlantic. These two factors are extracted by the ensemble mean and inter-member difference of a ten-member Pacific Ocean-Global Atmosphere (POGA) experiment, in which sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are restored to the observed anomalies over the tropical Pacific but fully coupled to the atmosphere elsewhere. POGA reasonably captures main features of the observed North Tropical Atlantic variability. Both ENSO forced and local North Tropical Atlantic Modes (NTAMs) develop with wind-evaporation-SST feedback. Notable biases exist. The seasonality of the simulated NTAM is delayed by 1 month, due to the late development of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the model. This suggests the importance of NAO in setting the seasonality of NTAM and of the extratropical-tropical teleconnection. The simulated NTAM is closely related to the Atlantic Niño in the subsequent summer, a relationship not so obvious in observations. Local variability, represented by the preseason NAO and SST persistence, contributes considerably to NTAM variability. Including these two indicators, together with ENSO, improves the predictability of NTAM. The South Tropical Atlantic Mode can be forced by ENSO, and a cross-equatorial dipole is triggered by ENSO instead of local air-sea coupling within the tropical Atlantic.

  2. On the role of ozone feedback in the ENSO amplitude response under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowack, Peer J.; Braesicke, Peter; Luke Abraham, N.; Pyle, John A.

    2017-04-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean is of key importance to global climate and weather. However, state-of-the-art climate models still disagree on the ENSO's response under climate change. The potential role of atmospheric ozone changes in this context has not been explored before. Here we show that differences between typical model representations of ozone can have a first-order impact on ENSO amplitude projections in climate sensitivity simulations. The vertical temperature gradient of the tropical middle-to-upper troposphere adjusts to ozone changes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, modifying the Walker circulation and consequently tropical Pacific surface temperature gradients. We show that neglecting ozone changes thus results in a significant increase in the number of extreme ENSO events in our model. Climate modeling studies of the ENSO often neglect changes in ozone. We therefore highlight the need to understand better the coupling between ozone, the tropospheric circulation, and climate variability.

  3. Strengthened relationship between the Antarctic Oscillation and ENSO after the mid-1990s during austral spring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Tingting; Wang, Huijun; Sun, Jianqi

    2017-01-01

    This paper documents a decadal strengthened co-variability of the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) and ENSO in austral spring after the mid-1990s. During the period 1979-93, the ENSO (AAO) spatial signatures are restricted to the tropics-midlatitudes (Antarctic-midlatitudes) of the Southern Hemisphere (SH), with a weak connection between the two oscillations. Comparatively, after the mid-1990s, the El Ni˜no-related atmospheric anomalies project on a negative AAO pattern with a barotropic structure in the mid-high latitudes of the SH. The expansion of El Ni˜no-related air temperature anomalies have a heightened impact on the meridional thermal structure of the SH, contributing to a weakened circumpolar westerly and strengthened subtropical jet. Meanwhile, the ENSO-related southern three-cell circulations expand poleward and then strongly couple the Antarctic and the tropics. Numerical simulation results suggest that the intensified connection between ENSO and SST in the South Pacific since the mid-1990s is responsible for the strengthened AAO-ENSO relationship.

  4. The Impact of ENSO on Trace Gas Composition in the Upper Troposphere to Lower Stratosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oman, Luke; Douglass, Anne; Ziemke, Jerry; Waugh, Darryn Warwick

    2016-01-01

    The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of interannual variability in the tropical troposphere and its effects extend well into the stratosphere. Its impact on atmospheric dynamics and chemistry cause important changes to trace gas constituent distributions. A comprehensive suite of satellite observations, reanalyses, and chemistry climate model simulations are illuminating our understanding of processes like ENSO. Analyses of more than a decade of observations from NASAs Aura and Aqua satellites, combined with simulations from the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM) and other Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative (CCMI) models, and the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis have provided key insights into the response of atmospheric composition to ENSO. While we will primarily focus on ozone and water vapor responses in the upper troposphere to lower stratosphere, the effects of ENSO ripple through many important trace gas species throughout the atmosphere. The very large 2015-2016 El Nino event provides an opportunity to closely examine these impacts with unprecedented observational breadth. An improved quantification of natural climate variations, like those from ENSO, is needed to detect and quantify anthropogenic climate changes.

  5. Global land carbon sink response to temperature and precipitation varies with ENSO phase

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fang, Yuanyuan [Carnegie Inst. of Science, Stanford, CA (United States); Michalak, Anna M. [Carnegie Inst. of Science, Stanford, CA (United States); Schwalm, Christopher R. [Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA (United States); Huntzinger, Deborah N. [Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff, AZ (United States); Berry, Joseph A. [Carnegie Inst. of Science, Stanford, CA (United States); Ciais, Philippe [Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission (CEA), Gif sur Yvette (France); Piao, Shilong [Peking Univ., Beijing (China); Poulter, Benjamin [Montana State Univ., Bozeman, MT (United States); Fisher, Joshua B. [California Inst. of Technology (CalTech), Pasadena, CA (United States); Cook, Robert B. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Hayes, Daniel [Univ. of Maine, Orno, ME (United States); Huang, Maoyi [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Ito, Akihiko [National Inst. for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba (Japan); Jain, Atul [Univ. of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL (United States); Lei, Huimin [Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China); Lu, Chaoqun [Ames Lab. and Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States); Mao, Jiafu [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Parazoo, Nicholas C. [California Inst. of Technology (CalTech), Pasadena, CA (United States); Peng, Shushi [Peking Univ., Beijing (China); Ricciuto, Daniel M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Shi, Xiaoying [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Tao, Bo [Univ. of Kentucky, Lexington, KY (United States); Tian, Hanqin [Auburn Univ., AL (United States); Wang, Weile [NASA Ames Research Center (ARC), Moffett Field, Mountain View, CA (United States); Wei, Yaxing [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Yang, Jia [Auburn Univ., AL (United States)

    2017-06-01

    Climate variability associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its consequent impacts on land carbon sink interannual variability have been used as a basis for investigating carbon cycle responses to climate variability more broadly, and to inform the sensitivity of the tropical carbon budget to climate change. Past studies have presented opposing views about whether temperature or precipitation is the primary factor driving the response of the land carbon sink to ENSO. We show that the dominant driver varies with ENSO phase. And whereas tropical temperature explains sink dynamics following El Niño conditions (r TG,P = 0.59, p < 0.01), the post La Niña sink is driven largely by tropical precipitation (r PG,T= -0.46, p = 0.04). This finding points to an ENSO-phase-dependent interplay between water availability and temperature in controlling the carbon uptake response to climate variations in tropical ecosystems. Furthermore, we find that none of a suite of ten contemporary terrestrial biosphere models captures these ENSO-phase-dependent responses, highlighting a key uncertainty in modeling climate impacts on the future of the global land carbon sink.

  6. The impact of ENSO on the South Atlantic Subtropical Dipole Mode

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigues, Regina; Campos, Edmo; Haarsma, Reindert

    2015-04-01

    The impact of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the South Atlantic subtropical dipole mode (SASD) is investigated using both observations and model simulations. The SASD is the dominant mode of coupled ocean-atmosphere variability in the South Atlantic. This study focuses on austral summer, when both ENSO and SASD peak. We show that negative SASD events are associated with central Pacific El Niño events by triggering the Pacific-South America wave train (PSA). The latter resembles the 3rd leading mode of atmospheric variability in the Southern Hemisphere (PSA2) and causes a weakening and meridional shift of the South Atlantic subtropical high, which then generates the negative SASD events. On the other hand, a strengthening of the South Atlantic subtropical high related to central La Niña teleconnections causes positive SASD events. Our results show that the PSA2, triggered by central Pacific ENSO events, connects the tropical Pacific to the Atlantic. This connection is absent from eastern Pacific ENSO events, which appear to initiate the 2nd leading mode of atmospheric variability in the Southern Hemisphere (PSA1). It is for this reason that previous studies have found weak correlations between ENSO and SASD. These findings can improve the climate prediction of southeast South America and southern Africa since these regions are affected by sea surface temperature anomalies of both Pacific and Atlantic oceans.

  7. Modeling and Observations of the Response of Tropical Tropospheric Ozone to ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oman, L. D.; Douglass, A. R.; Ziemke, J. R.; Waugh, D. W.; Lang, C.; Rodriquez, J. M.; Nielsen, J. E.

    2012-01-01

    The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of tropical variability on interannual time scales. ENSO appears to extend its influence into the chemical composition of the tropical troposphere, Recent results have revealed an ENSO induced wave-1 anomaly in observed tropical tropospheric column ozone, This results in a dipole over the western and eastern tropical Pacific, whereby differencing the two regions produces an ozone anomaly with an extremely high correlation to the Nino 3.4 Index. We have successfully reproduced this result using the Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 (GEOS-5) general circulation model coupled to a comprehensive stratospheric and tropospheric chemical mechanism forced with observed sea surface temperatures over the past 25 years, An examination of the modeled ozone field reveals the vertical contributions of tropospheric ozone to the column over the western and eastern Pacific region, We will show targeted comparisons with SHADOZ ozonesondes over these regions to provide insight into the vertical structure. Also, comparisons with NASA's Aura satellite Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and Tropospheric Emissions Spectrometer (TES) instruments and other appropriate data sets will be shown. In addition, the water vapor response to ENSO will be compared to help illuminate its role relative to dynamics in impacting ozone concentrations. These results indicate that the tropospheric ozone response to ENSO is potentially a very useful chemistry-climate diagnostic and should be considered in future modeling assessments.

  8. Coastal upwelling along the southwest coast of India – ENSO modulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Muni Krishna

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available An index of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO in the Pacific during pre monsoon season is shown to account for a significant part of the variability of coastal Sea Surface Temperature (SST anomalies measured a few months later within the wind driven southwest coast of India coastal upwelling region 7° N–14° N. This teleconnection is thought to result from an atmospheric bridge between the Pacific and north Indian Oceans, leading to warm (cold ENSO events being associated with relaxation (intensification of the Indian trade winds and of the wind-induced coastal upwelling. This ENSO related modulation of the wind-driven coastal upwelling appears to contribute to the connection observed at the basin-scale between ENSO and SST in the Arabian Sea. The ability to use this teleconnection to give warning of large changes in the southwest coast of India coastal upwelling few months in advance is successfully tested using data from 1998 and 1999 ENSO events.

  9. A Review of ENSO Influence on the North Atlantic. A Non-Stationary Signal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belén Rodríguez-Fonseca

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The atmospheric seasonal cycle of the North Atlantic region is dominated by meridional movements of the circulation systems: from the tropics, where the West African Monsoon and extreme tropical weather events take place, to the extratropics, where the circulation is dominated by seasonal changes in the jetstream and extratropical cyclones. Climate variability over the North Atlantic is controlled by various mechanisms. Atmospheric internal variability plays a crucial role in the mid-latitudes. However, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO is still the main source of predictability in this region situated far away from the Pacific. Although the ENSO influence over tropical and extra-tropical areas is related to different physical mechanisms, in both regions this teleconnection seems to be non-stationary in time and modulated by multidecadal changes of the mean flow. Nowadays, long observational records (greater than 100 years and modeling projects (e.g., CMIP permit detecting non-stationarities in the influence of ENSO over the Atlantic basin, and further analyzing its potential mechanisms. The present article reviews the ENSO influence over the Atlantic region, paying special attention to the stability of this teleconnection over time and the possible modulators. Evidence is given that the ENSO–Atlantic teleconnection is weak over the North Atlantic. In this regard, the multidecadal ocean variability seems to modulate the presence of teleconnections, which can lead to important impacts of ENSO and to open windows of opportunity for seasonal predictability.

  10. On the role of ozone feedback in the ENSO amplitude response under global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowack, Peer J; Braesicke, Peter; Luke Abraham, N; Pyle, John A

    2017-04-28

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean is of key importance to global climate and weather. However, state-of-the-art climate models still disagree on the ENSO's response under climate change. The potential role of atmospheric ozone changes in this context has not been explored before. Here we show that differences between typical model representations of ozone can have a first-order impact on ENSO amplitude projections in climate sensitivity simulations. The vertical temperature gradient of the tropical middle-to-upper troposphere adjusts to ozone changes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, modifying the Walker circulation and consequently tropical Pacific surface temperature gradients. We show that neglecting ozone changes thus results in a significant increase in the number of extreme ENSO events in our model. Climate modeling studies of the ENSO often neglect changes in ozone. We therefore highlight the need to understand better the coupling between ozone, the tropospheric circulation, and climate variability.

  11. Energy Dissipation in the Tropical Ocean and ENSO Dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, J. N.; Fedorov, A. V.

    2006-12-01

    State-of-the art coupled models exhibit a wide range of behavior in the tropical Pacific, particularly when simulating ENSO. Here, we use the energetics of the tropical ocean to shed light on this issue. Previous studies have shown that winds act on the ocean by affecting the buoyancy forcing, modifying the slope of the isopycnals and changing the Available Potential Energy (APE) of the system, so that d(APE)/dt = WindWork - Dissipation. The present study focuses on the role of energy dissipation in this balance due to various factors including turbulent mixing and coastal Kelvin waves leaving the basin. Firstly we test the robustness of this equation by using a variety of ocean-only models and data-assimilation products, in order to establish a baseline for this relationship. With the baseline established, we apply our method to the IPCC coupled model simulations. We find that the net dissipation rates and the overall dissipative properties vary greatly from one model to the next. One of the striking differences between coupled models is in the way they partition energy between the seasonal cycle and interannual variability, which is investigated within the same framework. Further, we explore the differences in the ocean energetics that occur due to the emergence of a double ITCZ in coupled models and also investigate the relationship between the effective coupling strength of a given model and its dissipative characteristics. Ultimately, we propose this energy-based analysis as an effective diagnostic tool for assessing and improving model performance.

  12. Science Accomplishments from a Decade of Aura OMI/MLS Tropospheric Ozone Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziemke, Jerald R.; Douglass, Anne R.; Joiner, Joanna; Duncan, Bryan N.; Olsen, Mark A.; Oman, Luke D.; Witte, Jacquelyn C.; Liu, X.; Wargan, K.; Schoeberl, Mark R.; hide

    2014-01-01

    Measurements of tropospheric ozone from combined Aura OMI and MLS instruments have yielded a large number of new and important science discoveries over the last decade. These discoveries have generated a much greater understanding of biomass burning, lightning NO, and stratosphere-troposphere exchange sources of tropospheric ozone, ENSO dynamics and photochemistry, intra-seasonal variability-Madden-Julian Oscillation including convective transport, radiative forcing, measuring ozone pollution from space, improvements to ozone retrieval algorithms, and evaluation of chemical-transport and chemistry-climate models. The OMI-MLS measurements have been instrumental in giving us better understanding of the dynamics and chemistry involving tropospheric ozone and the many drivers affecting the troposphere in general. This discussion will provide an overview focusing on our main science results.

  13. An overview of ENSO signature on the surface parameters of the tropical Pacific ocean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available ÉTUDE DE LA SIGNATURE DE L’ENSO SUR LES PARAMETRES DE SURFACE DE L’OCEAN PACIFIQUE TROPICAL. A l’échelle interannuelle, le phénomène climatique El Niño Oscillation Australe (ENSO constitue le signal climatique le plus puissant de la Planète. Cette note décrit et analyse la variabilité associée à ce phénomène dans le Pacifique tropical au cours de la période 1961-1995. L’accent est mis sur cinq paramètres considérés comme essentiels, à savoir: la température et la salinité de surface, l’anomalie de hauteur dynamique 0/450 dbar (un alias du niveau de la mer, le vent de surface et les précipitations. Le signal ENSO est décrit à partir d’une analyse en fonctions empiriques orthogonales des séries temporelles filtrées de manière à ne retenir que les variations de période supérieure à un an. Cette analyse précise de manière concise l’amplitude, la position géographique et la date d’apparition des anomalies associées à chaque paramètre. UN ESTUDIO DE LA FIRMA ENSO DE LOS PARÁMETROS SUPERFICIALES DEL OCÉANO PACÍFICO TROPICAL. El fenómeno ENSO (El Niño Oscilación del Sur es el fenómeno climático más poderoso del planeta a una escala interanual. En esta nota, la variabilidad relacionada al ENSO, se describe y analiza para los parámetros claves oceánicos y atmosféricos del Pacífico tropical. Estos parámetros consisten en la temperatura superficial del mar y la salinidad, la anomalía de altura dinámica 0/450 dbar (esto es, un alias para el nivel del mar, viento superficial y la precipitación recolectada durante el período de 1961 a 1995. Se extraen las señales relacionadas al ENSO a partir del análisis de una Función Ortogonal Empírica (FOE realizada en las series de tiempo filtradas de paso bajo. Para cada parámetro, el análisis FOE precisa las localizaciones y tiempos de las variaciones notables relacionadas al ENSO en una forma concisa. The ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomenon

  14. A synthesis of ENSO effects on drylands in Australia, North America and South America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Holmgren

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Fundamentally, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO is a climatic and oceanographic phenomenon, but it has profound effects on terrestrial ecosystems. Although the ecological effects of ENSO are becoming increasingly known from a wide range of terrestrial ecosystems (Holmgren et al., 2001, their impacts have been more intensively studied in arid and semiarid systems. In this brief communication, we summarize the main conclusions of a recent symposium on the effects of ENSO in these ecosystems, which was convened as part of the First Alexander von Humboldt International Conference on the El Niño Phenomenon and its Global Impact, in Guayaquil, Ecuador, from 16–20 May 2005. Participants in the symposium shared results and perspectives from research conducted in North and South America and Australia, regions where the ecological effects of ENSO have been studied in depth. Although the reports covered a wide array of organisms and ecological systems (Fig. 1, a recurring theme was the strong increase in rainfall associated with ENSO events in dry ecosystems (during the El Niño phase of the oscillation in the Americas and the La Niña phase in Australia. Because inter-annual variability in precipitation is such a strong determinant of productivity in arid and semiarid ecosystems, increased ENSO rainfall is crucial for plant recruitment, productivity and diversity in these ecosystems. Several long-term studies show that this pulse in primary productivity causes a subsequent increase in herbivores, followed by an increase in carnivores, with consequences for changes in ecosystem structure and functioning that can be quite complex.

  15. ENSO effects on MLT diurnal tides: A 21 year reanalysis data-driven GAIA model simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Huixin; Sun, Yang-Yi; Miyoshi, Yasunobu; Jin, Hidekatsu

    2017-05-01

    Tidal responses to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) are investigated for the first time using reanalysis data-driven simulations covering 21 years. The simulation is carried out with the Ground-to-topside Atmosphere-Ionosphere model for Aeronomy (GAIA) during 1996-2016, which covers nine ENSO events. ENSO impacts on diurnal tides at 100 km altitude are analyzed and cross-compared among temperature (T), zonal wind (U), and meridional wind (V), which reveals the following salient features: (1) Tidal response can differ significantly among T, U, and V in terms of magnitude and latitudinal structure, making detection of ENSO effects sensitive to the parameter used and the location of a ground station; (2) the nonmigrating DE3 tide in T and U shows a prominent hemisphere asymmetric response to La Niña, with an increase between 0° and 30°N and a decrease between 30° and 0°S. In contrast, DE3 in V exhibits no significant response; (3) the migrating DW1 enhances during El Niño in equatorial regions for T and U but in off-equatorial regions for V. As the first ENSO study based on reanalysis-driven simulations, GAIA's full set of tidal responses in T, U, and V provides us with a necessary global context to better understand and cross-compare observations during ENSO events. Comparisons with observations during the 1997-98 El Niño and 2010-11 La Niña reveal good agreement in both magnitude and timing. Comparisons with "free-run" WACCM simulations (T) show consistent results in nonmigrating tides DE2 and DE3 but differences in the migrating DW1 tide.

  16. Factors controlling January-April rainfall over southern India and Sri Lanka

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vialard, J. [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Laboratoire d' Oceanographie Experimentation et Approches Numeriques (LOCEAN), CNRS, IRD, Paris (France); National Institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula, Goa (India); Terray, P. [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Laboratoire d' Oceanographie Experimentation et Approches Numeriques (LOCEAN), CNRS, IRD, Paris (France); Duvel, J.P. [CNRS, Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Paris (France); Nanjundiah, R.S. [IISc, Center of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Bangalore (India); Shenoi, S.S.C. [Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services, Hyderabad (India); Shankar, D. [National Institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula, Goa (India)

    2011-08-15

    Most of the annual rainfall over India occurs during the Southwest (June-September) and Northeast (October-December) monsoon periods. In March 2008, however, Southern peninsular India and Sri Lanka received the largest rainfall anomaly on record since 1979, with amplitude comparable to summer-monsoon interannual anomalies. This anomalous rainfall appeared to be modulated at intraseasonal timescale by the Madden Julian Oscillation, and was synchronous with a decaying La Nina event in the Pacific Ocean. Was this a coincidence or indicative of a teleconnection pattern? In this paper, we explore factors controlling rainfall over southern India and Sri Lanka between January and April, i.e. outside of the southwest and northeast monsoons. This period accounts for 20% of annual precipitation over Sri Lanka and 10% over the southern Indian states of Kerala and Tamil Nadu. Interannual variability is strong (about 40% of the January-April climatology). Intraseasonal rainfall anomalies over southern India and Sri Lanka are significantly associated with equatorial eastward propagation, characteristic of the Madden Julian Oscillation. At the interannual timescale, we find a clear connection with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO); with El Ninos being associated with decreased rainfall (correlation of -0.46 significant at the 98% level). There is also a significant link with local SST anomalies over the Indian Ocean, and in particular with the inter-hemispheric sea surface temperature (SST) gradient over the Indian Ocean (with colder SST south of the equator being conducive to more rainfall, correlation of 0.55 significant at the 99% level). La Ninas/cold SSTs south of the equator tend to have a larger impact than El Ninos. We discuss two possible mechanisms that could explain these statistical relationships: (1) subsidence over southern India remotely forced by Pacific SST anomalies; (2) impact of ENSO-forced regional Indian Ocean SST anomalies on convection. However, the

  17. MJO empirical modeling and improved prediction by "Past Noise Forecasting"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kondrashov, D. A.; Chekroun, M.; Robertson, A. W.; Ghil, M.

    2011-12-01

    The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of intraseasonal variability in tropics and plays an important role in global climate. Here we presents modeling and prediction study of MJO by using Empirical Model Reduction (EMR). EMR is a methodology for constructing stochastic models based on the observed evolution of selected climate fields; these models represent unresolved processes as multivariate, spatially correlated stochastic forcing. In EMR, multiple polynomial regression is used to estimate the nonlinear, deterministic propagator of the dynamics, as well as multi-level additive stochastic forcing -"noise", directly from the observational dataset. The EMR approach has been successfully applied on the seasonal-to-interannual time scale for real-time ENSO prediction (Kondrashov et al. 2005), as well as atmospheric midlatitude intraseasonal variability (Kondrashov et al. 2006,2010). In this study nonlinear (quadratic) with annual cycle, three-level EMR model was developed to model and predict leading pair of real-time multivariate Madden-Julian oscillation (RMM1,2) daily indices (June 1974- January 2009, http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/). The EMR model captures essential MJO statistical features, such as seasonal dependence, RMM1,2 autocorrelations and spectra. By using the "Past Noise Forecasting" (PNF) approach developed and successfully applied to improve long-term ENSO prediction in Chekroun et al. (2011), we are able to notably improve the cross-validated prediction skill of RMM indices- especially at lead times of 15-to-30 days. The EMR/PNF method has two steps: (i) select noise samples - or "snippets" - from the past noise, which have forced the EMR model to yield the MJO phase resembling the one at the the currently observed state; and (ii) use these "noise" snippets to create ensemble forecast of EMR model. The MJO phase identification is based on Singular Spectrum Analysis reconstruction of 30-60 day MJO cycle.

  18. Methodology for the location of PMU for the monitoring of critical oscillations in power systems; Metodologia para la ubicacion de PMU para el monitoreo de oscilaciones criticas en sistemas electricos de potencia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Calderon Guizar, Jorge Guillermo [Instituto de Investigaciones Electricas, Cuernavaca, Morelos (Mexico)

    2009-07-01

    la ubicacion de unidades de medicion fasorial, mejor conocidas como PMU (por sus siglas en ingles) para el monitoreo de modos de oscilacion criticas en los sistemas electricos de potencia.

  19. Can solar cycle modulate the ENSO effect on the Pacific/North American pattern?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Delin; Xiao, Ziniu

    2018-01-01

    The ENSO effect on the Pacific/North American pattern (PNA) is well-known robust. Recent studies from observations and model simulations have reported that some important atmospheric circulation systems of extratropics are markedly modulated by the 11-year solar cycle. But less effort has been devoted to revealing the solar influence on the PNA. We thus hypothesize that the instability and uncertainty in the relationship between solar activity and PNA could be due to the ENSO impacts. In this study, solar cycle modulation of the ENSO effect on the PNA has been statistically examined by the observations from NOAA and NCEP/NCAR for the period of 1950-2014. Results indicate that during the high solar activity (HS) years, the PNA has stronger relevance to the ENSO, and the response of tropospheric geopotential height to ENSO variability is broadly similar to the typical positive PNA pattern. However, in the case of low solar activity (LS) years, the correlation between ENSO and PNA decreases relatively and the response has some resemblance to the negative phase of Arctic Oscillation (AO). Also, we find the impacts of solar activity on the middle troposphere are asymmetric during the different solar cycle phases, and the weak PNA-like response to solar activity only presents in the HS years. Closer inspection suggests that the higher solar activity has a much more remarkable modulation on the PNA-like response to the warm ENSO (WE) than that to the cold ENSO (CE), particularly over the Northeast Pacific region. The possible cause of the different responses might be the solar influence on the subtropical westerlies of upper troposphere. When the sea surface temperature (SST) of east-central tropical Pacific is anomalously warm, the upper tropospheric westerlies are significantly modulated by the higher solar activity, resulting in the acceleration and eastward shift of the North Pacific subtropical jet, which favors the propagation of WE signal from the tropical Pacific

  20. ENSO-Driven Predictability of Tropical Dry Autumns Using the Seasonal ENSEMBLES Multimodel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manzanas, R.; Gutiérrez, J. M.; Cofiño, A. S.; Frías, M. D.

    2010-09-01

    The interest on running seasonal forecasting systems has grown rapidly all around the world in recent times, making necessary the development of appropriate validation methods. Here, we present a systematic and rigorous statistical procedure to assess the skill of the state-of-the-art seasonal forecasting. To that aim, the seasonal ENSEMBLES multimodel (MME), constructed from the five global coupled models within STREAM 2, is validated in the whole Globe for the period 1961-2000. The methodology used is that introduced by Frías et al. 2010. Observations and hindcasts are divided into three categories, according to their terciles: less than normal, normal and above normal precipitation. Then, a probability is assigned to each tercile depending on the number of members forecasting it. The series with these probabilities and the real occurrence/non occurrence of the target tercile permit to calculate skill scores. Two metrics are used: the Roc Skill Area (RSA) and the Hit Rate (HIR). In a first step, validations are performed for the whole period 1961-2000 in terms of RSA, obtaining a large predictability of the dry tercile over the tropics, especially intense in the northeastern parts of South America and Australia and in the Malay-archipelago in Autumn (at one-month leadtime). Then, since ENSO is known to affect seasonal predictability in these latitudes, validations are performed only in ENSO years, in order to check if this skill changes in the presence of this phenomenon. Results show that skill increases strongly in the ENSO-conditioned validations, manifesting an important tropical predictability. Furthermore, a global study of ENSO-teleconnections is performed, concluding that ENSO-teleconnected areas are basically those in which predictability is largest. This fact points out the existence of a physical cause behind the skill. Finally, using HIR, it is proved that this tropical predictability has a different origin in non-ENSO years and in ENSO ones

  1. ENSO modulation of seasonal rainfall and extremes in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Supari; Tangang, Fredolin; Salimun, Ester; Aldrian, Edvin; Sopaheluwakan, Ardhasena; Juneng, Liew

    2017-12-01

    This paper provides a detailed description of how ENSO events affect seasonal and extreme precipitation over Indonesia. Daily precipitation data from 97 stations across Indonesia covering the period from 1981 to 2012 were used to investigate the effects of El Niño and La Niña on extreme precipitation characteristics including intensity, frequency and duration, as defined based on a subset of the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). Although anomalous signals in these three indices were consistent with those of total rainfall, anomalies in the duration of extremes [i.e., consecutive dry days (CDD) and consecutive wet days (CWD)] were much more robust. El Niño impacts were particularly prominent during June-July-August (JJA) and September-October-November (SON), when anomalously dry conditions were experienced throughout the country. However, from SON, a wet anomaly appeared over northern Sumatra, later expanding eastward during December-January-February (DJF) and March-April-May (MAM), creating contrasting conditions of wet in the west and dry in the east. We attribute this apparent eastward expansion of a wet anomaly during El Niño progression to the equatorial convergence of two anti-cyclonic circulations, one residing north of the equator and the other south of the equator. These anti-cyclonic circulations strengthen and weaken according to seasonal changes and their coupling with regional seas, hence shaping moisture transport and convergence. During La Niña events, the eastward expansion of an opposite (i.e., dry) anomaly was also present but less prominent than that of El Niño. We attribute this to differences in regional ocean—atmosphere coupling, which result in the contrasting seasonal evolution of the two corresponding anomalous cyclonic circulations and in turn suggests the strong nonlinearity of El Niño and La Niña responses over the Maritime Continent. Based on the seasonal behaviour of anomalous CDD and CWD, we

  2. ENSO shifts and their link to Southern Africa surface air temperature in summer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manatsa, D.; Mukwada, G.; Makaba, L.

    2017-04-01

    ENSO has been known to influence the trends of summer warming over Southern Africa. In this work, we used observational and reanalysis data to analyze the relationship between ENSO and maximum surface air temperature (SATmax) trends during the three epochs created by the ENSO phase shifts around 1977 and 1997 for the period 1960 to 2014. We observed that while ENSO and cloud cover remains the dominant factor controlling SATmax variability, the first two epochs had the predominant La Niña (El Niño)-like events connected to robust positive (negative) trends in cloud fraction. However, this established relationship reversed in the post-1997 La Niña-like dominated epoch which coincided with a falling cloud cover trend. It is established that this deviation from the previously established link within the previous epochs could be due to the post-1998 era in which SATmin was suppressed while SATmax was enhanced. The resulting increase in diurnal temperature range (DTR) could have discouraged the formation of low-level clouds which have relatively more extensive areal coverage and hence allowing more solar energy to reach the surface to boost daytime SATmax. It is noted that these relationships are more pronounced from December to March.

  3. ENSO-conditioned weather resampling method for seasonal ensemble streamflow prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beckers, Joost V.L.; Weerts, Albrecht H.; Tijdeman, Erik; Welles, Edwin

    2016-01-01

    Oceanic-atmospheric climate modes, such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), are known to affect the local streamflow regime in many rivers around the world. A new method is proposed to incorporate climate mode information into the well-known ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) method for

  4. Impact of 1990-'95 ENSO/WEPO event on Indian monsoon rainfall

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gopinathan, C.K.

    The negative phase of the 1990-'95 El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the associated Warming of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean (WEPO) was the longest observed in the 113 years of its recorded history, compared to its normal duration of 1 to 2...

  5. ENSO-induced inter-annual sea level variability in the Singapore strait

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Soumya, M.; Vethamony, P.; Tkalich, P.

    Sea level data from four tide gauge stations in the SS (Tanjong Pagar, Sultan Shoal, Sembawang and Raffles Lighthouse) for the period 1970-2012 were extracted to study the ENSO-induced interannual sea level variability Sea level during this period...

  6. Impact of ENSO events on the interannual variability of Hadley circulation extents in boreal winter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi-Peng Guo

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The interannual variability of the boreal winter Hadley circulation extents during the period of 1979–2014 and its links to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO were investigated by using reanalysis datasets. Results showed that the El Niño (La Niña events can induce the shrinking (expansion of Hadley circulation extent in the Southern Hemisphere. For the Northern Hemisphere, El Niño (La Niña mainly leads to shrinking (expansion of the Hadley circulation extent in the middle and lower troposphere and expansion (shrinking of the Hadley circulation extent in the upper troposphere. The ENSO associated meridional temperature gradients have close relationship with the Hadley circulation extents in both Hemispheres. But in the Northern Hemisphere, the ENSO associated eddy momentum flux divergence plays more important role in affecting the Hadley circulation extent than the meridional temperature gradient because of the small local Rossby number. In the Southern Hemisphere, as the ENSO induced eddy momentum flux divergence is small, the meridional temperature gradient dominates the change of the Hadley circulation extent.

  7. Impact of ENSO events on the Kruger National Park’s vegetation

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Wessels, Konrad J

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available the Kruger National Park shows the strong relationship between the ENSO episodes (droughts during El Niño and high rainfall during La Niña episodes), rainfall, grass production and satellite time-series data of vegetation activity. El Niño conditions have...

  8. Tree establishment along an ENSO experimental gradient in the Atacama desert

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Squeo, F.A.; Holmgren, M.; Jimenez, L.; Alban, L.; Reyes, J.; Gutierrez, J.R.

    2007-01-01

    Questions: (1) What are the roles of regional climate and plant growth rate for seedling establishment during ENSO rainy pulses along the western coast of South America? (2) What is the water threshold for tree seedling establishment in these arid ecosystems? Location: Atacama Desert, western South

  9. Opposing oceanic and atmospheric ENSO influences on the Ross Sea Region, Antarctica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. A. N. Bertler

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Here we discuss the cause and effect of opposing atmospheric and oceanic ENSO forcings in the Ross Sea, that lead to a net warming in the eastern Ross Sea and a net cooling in the western Ross Sea during El Niño years. During La Niña years the opposite is observed. The oceanic ENSO effect causes a ~1 K warming with a 3 month lag during El Niño years in comparison to La Niña time periods. During El Niño events, the atmospheric ENSO effect leads to a shift and weakening of the Amundsen Sea Low, causing enhanced import of colder West Antarctic air masses into the western Ross Sea. We find that this indirect ENSO effect is about one order of magnitude stronger (up to 15 K in the western Ross Sea than the direct effect (~1 K, leading to a net cooling during El Niño and net warming during La Niña events.

  10. Landslides as a Delayed Signal of Warm Phase of ENSO in the Aconcagua Park (32 Sl)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreiras, S.; Lisboa, M.

    2013-05-01

    The Aconcagua mount (6,929 m asl), the top of the Andes, is characterised by high elevations and abrupt topography that seem to have favoured the occurrence of landslides affecting 25% of the Aconcagua Park (Fig 1). Concerning to triggering mechanism, rainfall are mentioned as the main cause of landslides in historical sources; but this assertion could not be confirmed on the basis of available meteorological data beginning after 1940. The most reliable rainfall threshold value corresponds to a 19 mm (daily precipitation) representing 8.7% of the annual precipitation and 8% of the mean annual precipitation for this region. However, main cause of landslides is related to terrain saturation by snow melting and ice thawing of ice-core moraines or rock glaciers during the warm season (November - February). A delayed link between warm phases of ENSO and slope instability could be established by a relationship found between landslides and local river stream flow (Fig. 2). The typical warm phase of ENSO begins in November of one year, increasing during July—August, and ends in February of the following year. Greater snowfall and positive glacier balance has been linked to the ENSO-warm phase. Consequently, increased stream flows of Andean rivers will be measured the following summer. In fact, ENSO-related features in the tropical Pacific play a major role in regulating the hydrological variability in the region with increased (decreased) summer and annual river discharges following El Niño (La Niña) events.; ;

  11. Effect of AMOC collapse on ENSO in a high resolution general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williamson, Mark S.; Collins, Mat; Drijfhout, Sybren S.; Kahana, Ron; Mecking, Jennifer V.; Lenton, Timothy M.

    2017-06-01

    We look at changes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a high-resolution eddy-permitting climate model experiment in which the Atlantic Meridional Circulation (AMOC) is switched off using freshwater hosing. The ENSO mode is shifted eastward and its period becomes longer and more regular when the AMOC is off. The eastward shift can be attributed to an anomalous eastern Ekman transport in the mean equatorial Pacific ocean state. Convergence of this transport deepens the thermocline in the eastern tropical Pacific and increases the temperature anomaly relaxation time, causing increased ENSO period. The anomalous Ekman transport is caused by a surface northerly wind anomaly in response to the meridional sea surface temperature dipole that results from switching the AMOC off. In contrast to a previous study with an earlier version of the model, which showed an increase in ENSO amplitude in an AMOC off experiment, here the amplitude remains the same as in the AMOC on control state. We attribute this difference to variations in the response of decreased stochastic forcing in the different models, which competes with the reduced damping of temperature anomalies. In the new high-resolution model, these effects approximately cancel resulting in no change in amplitude.

  12. Tailoring wheat management to ENSO phases for increased wheat production in Paraguay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melissa A. Ramirez-Rodrigues

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Reported regional wheat yields in Paraguay vary from 1 to 3 t/ha from year to year, but appear not to be correlated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO phases. Historical weather data from two locations in representative wheat-growing regions of Paraguay, Encarnación-Itapúa and Ciudad del Este-Alto Paraná combined with crop modeling, were analyzed to optimize nitrogen (N fertilizer application rates according to the ENSO phase of a growing season. The ENSO phase of a growing season was defined based on the average of the sea surface temperature (SST anomalies in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific region for the period June–October using the El Niño region 3.0 index (Niño 3.0. Simulated average yields in Alto Paraná were higher in the drier and cooler La Niña wheat-growing seasons (average of 3.5 t/ha compared to the other phases (average of 3.2 t/ha and in Itapúa, in Neutral seasons (average of 3.8 t/ha compared to the other phases (average of 3.7 t/ha. Accordingly, optimal N fertilizer applications ranged between 20 and 60 kg N/ha between phases depending on the sowing date, soil type and initial amount of soil water content. Applying an ENSO or General Circulation Model (GCM-based forecast for ENSO-season-type specific N fertilizer applications resulted in benefits of >100 US$/ha when compared with current farmers’ practice of consistently low N fertilizer applications in Paraguay. When N management based on forecasts was compared with optimized N application without forecast, the benefits of the forecast was only up to 8 US$/ha. The ENSO-persistence-based forecast showed higher values than the GCM-based forecasts with two lead-times but lower skill. Using climate information can significantly increase current wheat yields and gross margins in Paraguay by tailoring N fertilizer applications to the Niño 3.0-defined ENSO phases, which can be forecasted with moderate skill at the beginning of the growing season.

  13. The role of atmosphere and ocean physical processes in ENSO in a perturbed physics coupled climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Y. Philip

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available We examine the behaviour of the El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO in an ensemble of global climate model simulations with perturbations to parameters in the atmosphere and ocean components respectively. The influence of the uncertainty in these parametrisations on ENSO are investigated systematically. The ensemble exhibits a range of different ENSO behaviour in terms of the amplitude and spatial structure of the sea surface temperature (SST variability. The nature of the individual feedbacks that operate within the ENSO system are diagnosed using an Intermediate Complexity Model (ICM, which has been used previously to examine the diverse ENSO behaviour of the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble. Unlike in that case, the ENSO in these perturbed physics experiments is not principally controlled by variations in the mean climate state. Rather the parameter perturbations influence the ENSO characteristics by modifying the coupling feedbacks within the cycle. The associated feedbacks that contribute most to the ensemble variations are the response of SST to local wind variability and damping, followed by the response of SST to thermocline anomalies and the response of the zonal wind stress to those SST anomalies. Atmospheric noise amplitudes and oceanic processes play a relatively minor role.

  14. A new ENSO index derived from satellite measurements of column ozone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. R. Ziemke

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Column Ozone measured in tropical latitudes from Nimbus 7 total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS, Earth Probe TOMS, solar backscatter ultraviolet (SBUV, and Aura ozone monitoring instrument (OMI are used to derive an El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO index. This index, which covers a time period from 1979 to the present, is defined as the "Ozone ENSO Index" (OEI and is the first developed from atmospheric trace gas measurements. The OEI is constructed by first averaging monthly mean column ozone over two broad regions in the western and eastern Pacific and then taking their difference. This differencing yields a self-calibrating ENSO index which is independent of individual instrument calibration offsets and drifts in measurements over the long record. The combined Aura OMI and MLS ozone data confirm that zonal variability in total column ozone in the tropics caused by ENSO events lies almost entirely in the troposphere. As a result, the OEI can be derived directly from total column ozone instead of tropospheric column ozone. For clear-sky ozone measurements a +1 K change in Nino 3.4 index corresponds to +2.9 Dobson Unit (DU change in the OEI, while a +1 hPa change in SOI coincides with a −1.7 DU change in the OEI. For ozone measurements under all cloud conditions these numbers are +2.4 DU and −1.4 DU, respectively. As an ENSO index based upon ozone, it is potentially useful in evaluating climate models predicting long term changes in ozone and other trace gases.

  15. Assessing probabilistic predictions of ENSO phase and intensity from the North American Multimodel Ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tippett, Michael K.; Ranganathan, Meghana; L'Heureux, Michelle; Barnston, Anthony G.; DelSole, Timothy

    2017-05-01

    Here we examine the skill of three, five, and seven-category monthly ENSO probability forecasts (1982-2015) from single and multi-model ensemble integrations of the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) project. Three-category forecasts are typical and provide probabilities for the ENSO phase (El Niño, La Niña or neutral). Additional forecast categories indicate the likelihood of ENSO conditions being weak, moderate or strong. The level of skill observed for differing numbers of forecast categories can help to determine the appropriate degree of forecast precision. However, the dependence of the skill score itself on the number of forecast categories must be taken into account. For reliable forecasts with same quality, the ranked probability skill score (RPSS) is fairly insensitive to the number of categories, while the logarithmic skill score (LSS) is an information measure and increases as categories are added. The ignorance skill score decreases to zero as forecast categories are added, regardless of skill level. For all models, forecast formats and skill scores, the northern spring predictability barrier explains much of the dependence of skill on target month and forecast lead. RPSS values for monthly ENSO forecasts show little dependence on the number of categories. However, the LSS of multimodel ensemble forecasts with five and seven categories show statistically significant advantages over the three-category forecasts for the targets and leads that are least affected by the spring predictability barrier. These findings indicate that current prediction systems are capable of providing more detailed probabilistic forecasts of ENSO phase and amplitude than are typically provided.

  16. Impacts of ENSO on Air-Sea Oxygen Exchange: Observations and Mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eddebbar, Y.; Long, M. C.; Resplandy, L.; Manizza, M.; Keeling, R. F.

    2016-12-01

    Dissolved oxygen (O2) is essential to life in the ocean. The oceanic O2 content, however, is expected to decline as warming reduces gas solubility and ocean ventilation. The detection, attribution, and prediction of this decline remain uncertain, particularly in the tropical Pacific where models and observations disagree on both magnitude and sign of subsurface O2 change. These discrepancies arise mainly from: 1) models deficiencies, 2) the influence of natural variability, and 3) limited ocean observations. Here, we assess the effects of ENSO, the dominant mode of natural variability on interannual timescales, on the upper ocean O2 budget in the tropical Pacific using an atmospheric apporach. We combine 25 years of continuous high precision measurements of atmospheric O2 and CO2 from the Global Scripps Flask Network using the Atmospheric Potential Oxygen (APO O2 +1.1*CO2), a powerful tracer of air-sea O2 exchange. These measurements show a positive relation between APO and ENSO, with El Niño events driving an anomalous outgassing of O2 into the atmosphere, whereas La Niña is associated with anomalous uptake of O2 into the ocean. To explore driving mechanisms, we examine a hindcast simulation of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) from the 1960-2008 period. We find that the tropical region dominates the global O2 flux and thus the atmospheric O2 budget variability, and find, similarly to the observations, a positive relation between ENSO and air-sea O2 fluxes. In CESM, the tropical O2 flux response to ENSO represents the net balance of large opposing fluxes, whereby changes in ventilation of low-O2 waters dominate over weaker changes in solubility and biological productivity of O2. The observed APO response to ENSO not only informs process understanding of the coupling between climate and biogeochemical dynamics, but also provides a unique and powerful test for climate models.

  17. ENSO-Based Index Insurance: Approach and Peru Flood Risk Management Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khalil, A. F.; Kwon, H.; Lall, U.; Miranda, M. J.; Skees, J. R.

    2006-12-01

    Index insurance has recently been advocated as a useful risk transfer tool for disaster management situations where rapid fiscal relief is desirable, and where estimating insured losses may be difficult, time consuming, or subject to manipulation and falsification. For climate related hazards, a rainfall or temperature index may be proposed. However, rainfall may be highly spatially variable relative to the gauge network, and in many locations data are inadequate to develop an index due to short time-series and the spatial dispersion of stations. In such cases, it may be helpful to consider a climate proxy index as a regional rainfall index. This is particularly useful if a long record is available for the climate index through an independent source and it is well correlated with the regional rainfall hazard. Here, ENSO related climate indices are explored for use as a proxy to extreme rainfall in one of the departments of Peru -- Piura. The ENSO index insurance product may be purchased by banks or microfinance institutions (MFIs) to aid agricultural damage relief in Peru. Crop losses in the region are highly correlated with floods, but are difficult to assess directly. Beyond agriculture, many other sectors suffer as well. Basic infrastructure is destroyed during the most severe events. This disrupts trade for many micro-enterprises. The reliability and quality of the local rainfall data is variable. Averaging the financial risk across the region is desirable. Some issues with the implementation of the proxy ENSO index are identified and discussed. Specifically, we explore (a) the reliability of the index at different levels of probability of exceedance of maximum seasonal rainfall; (b) the potential for clustering of payoffs; (c) the potential that the index could be predicted with some lead time prior to the flood season; and (d) evidence for climate change or non-stationarity in the flood exceedance probability from the long ENSO record. Finally, prospects for

  18. A new method for extracting the ENSO-independent Indian Ocean Dipole: application to Australian region tropical cyclone counts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Werner, Angelika; Maharaj, Angela M. [Macquarie University, Department of Environment and Geography, Sydney, NSW (Australia); Holbrook, Neil J. [University of Tasmania, School of Geography and Environmental Studies, Hobart, TAS (Australia)

    2012-06-15

    We introduce a simple but effective means of removing ENSO-related variations from the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in order to better evaluate the ENSO-independent IOD contribution to Australian climate - specifically here interannual variations in Australian region tropical cyclogensis (TCG) counts. The ENSO time contribution is removed from the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode index (DMI) by first calculating the lagged regression of the DMI on the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) index NINO3.4 to maximum lags of 8 months, and then removing this ENSO portion. The new ENSO-independent time series, DMI{sub NOENSO}, correlates strongly with the original DMI at r = 0.87 (significant at >99% level). Despite the strength of the correlation between these series, the IOD events classified based on DMI{sub NOENSO} provide important differences from previously identified IOD events, which are more closely aligned with ENSO phases. IOD event composite maps of SSTAs regressed on DMI{sub NOENSO} reveal a much greater ENSO-independence than the original DMI-related SSTA pattern. This approach is used to explore relationships between Australian region TCG and IOD from 1968 to 2007. While we show that both the DMI and DMI{sub NOENSO} have significant hindcast skill (on the 95% level) when used as predictors in a multiple linear regression model for Australian region annual TCG counts, the IOD does not add any significant hindcast skill over an ENSO-only predictor model, based on NINO4. Correlations between the time series of annual TCG count observations and ENSO + IOD model cross-validated hindcasts achieve r = 0.68 (significant at the 99% level). (orig.)

  19. Applying Machine Learning to Climate Forcing of Streamflow: Regression Ensembles Illuminate Local Influences on Watershed Responses to ENSO.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rice, J. S.; Emanuel, R. E.

    2016-12-01

    The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important contributor to global climate variability and is also a major influence on the hydrological cycle, affecting precipitation and watershed hydrologic responses around the globe. Although regional patterns of hydrologic responses to ENSO climate forcing are generally clear, individual watersheds within a region respond very differently (or not at all) to ENSO. Our goal was to improve understanding of watershed scale hydrologic responses to ENSO and the factors that influence variability in those responses. This goal was addressed using a large dataset of watersheds (n=2731) within the conterminous United States together with an ensemble of various forms of regression. Specifically, we combine linear, non-linear, and tree-based regressors into a stacked ensemble of models to identify patterns in watershed scale hydrologic responses to ENSO. The resulting regression ensemble explained approximately 80% of the observed variability in monthly runoff responses to the multivariate ENSO index. We found that features related to the residence time of water within a watershed were associated with the expression of ENSO signals within streamflow. Our results have important implications for future hydrologic responses to ENSO within the U.S. given ongoing changes in hydroclimate. We identified other relationships that present opportunities for management based approaches to mediating watershed responses to future extremes in ENSO activity. Together, these results provide a prime example of the application of machine learning based methods in the hydrologic sciences to increase basic understanding of hydrologic behavior while also generating insight that may directly benefit water resource management activities.

  20. Sensitivity of Water Scarcity Events to ENSO-Driven Climate Variability at the Global Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Eisner, S.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

    2015-01-01

    Globally, freshwater shortage is one of the most dangerous risks for society. Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have aggravated water scarcity over the past decades. A wide range of studies show that water scarcity will intensify in the future, as a result of both increased consumptive water use and, in some regions, climate change. Although it is well-known that El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects patterns of precipitation and drought at global and regional scales, little attention has yet been paid to the impacts of climate variability on water scarcity conditions, despite its importance for adaptation planning. Therefore, we present the first global-scale sensitivity assessment of water scarcity to ENSO, the most dominant signal of climate variability. We show that over the time period 1961-2010, both water availability and water scarcity conditions are significantly correlated with ENSO-driven climate variability over a large proportion of the global land area (> 28.1 %); an area inhabited by more than 31.4% of the global population. We also found, however, that climate variability alone is often not enough to trigger the actual incidence of water scarcity events. The sensitivity of a region to water scarcity events, expressed in terms of land area or population exposed, is determined by both hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Currently, the population actually impacted by water scarcity events consists of 39.6% (CTA: consumption-to-availability ratio) and 41.1% (WCI: water crowding index) of the global population, whilst only 11.4% (CTA) and 15.9% (WCI) of the global population is at the same time living in areas sensitive to ENSO-driven climate variability. These results are contrasted, however, by differences in growth rates found under changing socioeconomic conditions, which are relatively high in regions exposed to water scarcity events. Given the correlations found between ENSO and water availability and scarcity

  1. The role of sea surface salinity in ENSO related water cycle anomaly

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Wenqing; Yueh, Simon

    2017-04-01

    This study investigates the role of sea surface salinity (SSS) in the water cycle anomaly associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The 2015-16 El Niño, one of the strongest ENSO events observed in centuries, coincident with unprecedented coverage of spacebased remote sensing of SSS over global oceans. We analyze three SSS data sets: from the NASA's missions of SMAP and Aquarius, and the ESA's Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS). One typical characteristics of an ENSO event is the zonal displacement of the Western equatorial Pacific Fresh Pool (WPFP). The edge of the pool extends eastward during El Niño, retreats westward during La Niña. For super El Niño, the eastern edge of WPFP extends much more east across the equatorial Pacific. Indeed, SSS from SMAP reveals much stronger eastward migration of WPFP starting in April 2015. The eastern edge of WPFP reached 140°W in March 2016, about 40° more eastward extension than Aquarius observed in previous years. In the following months from March to June 2016, WPFP retreated westward, coincident with the ending of this strong El Niño event [WMO, El Nino/La Nina update, 2016]. SMOS data shows similar feature, confirming that there is no systematic biases between SMAP and Aquarius retrievals. We examine the linkage between the observed SSS variation and ENSO related water cycle anomaly by integrated analysis of SSS data sets in conjunction with other satellite and in situ measurements on rain, wind, evaporation and ocean currents. Based on the governing equation of the mixed layer salt budget, the freshwater exchange between air-sea interfaces is estimated as residual of the mixed-layer salinity (MLS) temporal change and advection (Focean), as an alternative to evaporation minus precipitation (FE-P). We analyzed the spatial and temporal variation of Focean and FE-P to explore the anomalous signature in the oceanic and atmospheric branches of the water cycle associated with 2015/16 ENSO. The maximum

  2. Investigations of Possible Low-Level Temperature and Moisture Anomalies During the AMIE Field Campaign on Manus Island

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Long, CN; Holdridge, DJ

    2012-11-19

    This document discusses results stemming from the investigation of near-surface temperature and moisture “oddities” that were brought to light as part of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) Investigation Experiment (AMIE), Dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (DYNAMO), and Cooperative Indian Ocean experiment on intraseasonal variability in the Year 2011 (CINDY2011) campaigns.

  3. Balances de glaciares y clima en Bolivia y Perú: impacto de los eventos ENSO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    1995-01-01

    Full Text Available BILANS GLACIAIRES ET CLIMAT EN BOLIVIE ET AU PÉROU : IMPACT DES ÉVÉNEMENTS ENSO. À partir d’une reconstruction faite pour le glacier de Zongo (Cordillère Royale, Bolivie avec des données hydrologiques et de l’application du modèle linéaire (Lliboutry sur les données des glaciers Yanamarey et Uruashraju (Cordillère Blanche, Pérou, on a pu disposer de séries de 15-20 ans de bilans de masse. En analysant parallèlement les données recueillies aux stations météorologiques proches, on met en évidence le rôle des températures dans la détermination de ces bilans. La variabilité des températures dépend de façon étroite des phénomènes ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation : pendant ces épisodes, les températures maximales et minimales augmentent sensiblement, ce qui affecte le terme ablation du bilan de masse. On vérifie sur ces séries de 20 ans que toutes les années ENSO sont associées à des bilans négatifs. Pendant la plupart des épisodes ENSO se produit au sud du Pérou et en Bolivie une réduction des précipitations, ce qui contribue à accentuer l’effet ENSO sur les bilans. Ces événements ont une grande influence sur l’évolution actuelle des glaciers andins, caractérisée par un recul rapide. La reconstrucción del balance hidrológico a partir de datos hidrométricos del glaciar de Zongo (Cordillera Real de Bolivia, así como la aplicación del modelo lineal (Lliboutry sobre los datos de balance de los glaciares Yanamarey y Uruashraju (Cordillera Blanca del Perú, ofrecen la posibilidad de disponer de series de 15-20 años de balance de masa. Analizando paralelamente los datos recogidos en estaciones meteorológicas cercanas, se puede evidenciar el rol de las temperaturas en la determinación de estos balances. La variabilidad de las temperaturas depende de una manera estrecha de los eventos ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation: durante estos eventos, las temperaturas máximas y mínimas aumentan

  4. ENSO Effect on East Asian Tropical Cyclone Landfall via Changes in Tracks and Genesis in a Statistical Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yonekura, Emmi; Hall, Timothy M.

    2014-01-01

    Improvements on a statistical tropical cyclone (TC) track model in the western North Pacific Ocean are described. The goal of the model is to study the effect of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on East Asian TC landfall. The model is based on the International Best-Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) database of TC observations for 1945-2007 and employs local regression of TC formation rates and track increments on the Nino-3.4 index and seasonally varying climate parameters. The main improvements are the inclusion of ENSO dependence in the track propagation and accounting for seasonality in both genesis and tracks. A comparison of simulations of the 1945-2007 period with observations concludes that the model updates improve the skill of this model in simulating TCs. Changes in TC genesis and tracks are analyzed separately and cumulatively in simulations of stationary extreme ENSO states. ENSO effects on regional (100-km scale) landfall are attributed to changes in genesis and tracks. The effect of ENSO on genesis is predominantly a shift in genesis location from the southeast in El Nino years to the northwest in La Nina years, resulting in higher landfall rates for the East Asian coast during La Nina. The effect of ENSO on track propagation varies seasonally and spatially. In the peak activity season (July-October), there are significant changes in mean tracks with ENSO. Landfall-rate changes from genesis- and track-ENSO effects in the Philippines cancel out, while coastal segments of Vietnam, China, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan show enhanced La Nina-year increases.

  5. Relative Contributions of Mean-State Shifts and ENSO-Driven Variability to Precipitation Changes in a Warming Climate*

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bonfils, Céline J. W.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Phillips, Thomas J.; Marvel, Kate; Leung, L. Ruby; Doutriaux, Charles; Capotondi, Antonietta

    2015-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important driver of regional hydroclimate variability through far-reaching teleconnections. Most climate models project an increase in the frequency of extreme El Niño events under increased greenhouse-gas (GHG) forcing. However, it is unclear how other aspects of ENSO and ENSO-driven teleconnections will evolve in the future. Here, we identify in 20th century sea-surface temperature (SST) observations a time-invariant ENSO-like (ENSOL) pattern that is largely uncontaminated by GHG forcing. We use this pattern to investigate the future precipitation (P) response to ENSO-like SST anomalies. Models that better capture observed ENSOL characteristics produce P teleconnection patterns that are in better accord with observations and more stationary in the 21st century. We decompose the future P response to ENSOL into the sum of three terms: (1) the change in P mean state, (2) the historical P response to ENSOL, and (3) a future enhancement in the P response to ENSOL. In many regions, this last term can aggravate the P extremes associated with ENSO variability. This simple decomposition allows us to identify regions likely to experience ENSOL-induced P changes that are without precedent in the current climate.

  6. El ánima como impulso vital del ensoñador de palabras

    OpenAIRE

    Vejarano Soto, Elizabeth

    2006-01-01

    Encontrar a Bachelard y su Poética de la Ensoñación es revelador para todo estudioso del lenguaje como forma de expresión, por las calidades de su inspiración intelectual y por el sutil estallido de sensaciones poéticas que despierta su pluma. La innovadora exposición de sus conceptos, la recreación de una teoría, tan vital para la historia de la crítica literaria, en palabras de ensueño y con textos citados de manera perfecta, creando el escenario de la ensoñación, han constituido elementos ...

  7. Impacts of ENSO on air-sea oxygen exchange: Observations and mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eddebbar, Yassir A.; Long, Matthew C.; Resplandy, Laure; Rödenbeck, Christian; Rodgers, Keith B.; Manizza, Manfredi; Keeling, Ralph F.

    2017-05-01

    Models and observations of atmospheric potential oxygen (APO ≃ O2 + 1.1 * CO2) are used to investigate the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on air-sea O2 exchange. An atmospheric transport inversion of APO data from the Scripps flask network shows significant interannual variability in tropical APO fluxes that is positively correlated with the Niño3.4 index, indicating anomalous ocean outgassing of APO during El Niño. Hindcast simulations of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace model show similar APO sensitivity to ENSO, differing from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model, which shows an opposite APO response. In all models, O2 accounts for most APO flux variations. Detailed analysis in CESM shows that the O2 response is driven primarily by ENSO modulation of the source and rate of equatorial upwelling, which moderates the intensity of O2 uptake due to vertical transport of low-O2 waters. These upwelling changes dominate over counteracting effects of biological productivity and thermally driven O2 exchange. During El Niño, shallower and weaker upwelling leads to anomalous O2 outgassing, whereas deeper and intensified upwelling during La Niña drives enhanced O2 uptake. This response is strongly localized along the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, leading to an equatorial zonal dipole in atmospheric anomalies of APO. This dipole is further intensified by ENSO-related changes in winds, reconciling apparently conflicting APO observations in the tropical Pacific. These findings suggest a substantial and complex response of the oceanic O2 cycle to climate variability that is significantly (>50%) underestimated in magnitude by ocean models.

  8. ENSO related SST anomalies and relation with surface heat fluxes over south Pacific and Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatterjee, S.; Nuncio, M.; Satheesan, K.

    2017-07-01

    The role of surface heat fluxes in Southern Pacific and Atlantic Ocean SST anomalies associated with El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is studied using observation and ocean reanalysis products. A prominent dipole structure in SST anomaly is found with a positive (negative) anomaly center over south Pacific (65S-45S, 120W-70W) and negative (positive) one over south Atlantic (50S-30S, 30W-0E) during austral summer (DJF) of El Nino (LaNina). During late austral spring-early summer (OND) of El Nino (LaNina), anomalous northerly (southerly) meridional moisture transport and a positive (negative) sea level pressure anomaly induces a suppressed (enhanced) latent heat flux from the ocean surface over south Pacific. This in turn results in a shallower than normal mixed layer depth which further helps in development of the SST anomaly. Mixed layer thins further due to anomalous shortwave radiation during summer and a well developed SST anomaly evolves. The south Atlantic pole exhibits exactly opposite characteristics at the same time. The contribution from the surface heat fluxes to mixed layer temperature change is found to be dominant over the advective processes over both the basins. Net surface heat fluxes anomaly is also found to be maximum during late austral spring-early summer period, with latent heat flux having a major contribution to it. The anomalous latent heat fluxes between atmosphere and ocean surface play important role in the growth of observed summertime SST anomaly. Sea-surface height also shows similar out-of-phase signatures over the two basins and are well correlated with the ENSO related SST anomalies. It is also observed that the magnitude of ENSO related anomalies over the southern ocean are weaker in LaNina years than in El Nino years, suggesting an intensified tropics-high latitude tele-connection during warm phases of ENSO.

  9. Simulations of the ENSO Hydroclimate Signals in the Pacific Northwest Columbia River Basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leung, L. Ruby; Hamlet, Alan F.; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Kumar, Arun

    1999-11-01

    Natural fluctuations in the atmosphereocean system related to the El NiñoSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) induce climate variability over many parts of the world that is potentially predictable with lead times from seasons to decades. This study examines the potential of using a model nesting approach to provide seasonal climate and streamflow forecasts suitable for water resources management. Two ensembles of perpetual January simulations were performed with a regional climate model driven by a general circulation model (GCM), using observed climatological sea surface temperature (SST) and the mean SST of the warm ENSO years between 1950 and 1994. The climate simulations were then used to drive a macroscale hydrology model to simulate streamflow. The differences between the two ensembles of simulations are defined as the warm ENSO signals.The simulated hydroclimate signals were compared with observations. The analyses focus on the Columbia River basin in the Pacific Northwest. Results show that the global and regional models simulated a warming over the Pacific Northwest that is quite close to the observations. The models also correctly captured the strong wet signal over California and the weak dry signal over the Pacific Northwest during warm ENSO years. The regional climate model consistently performed better than the GCM in simulating the spatial distribution of regional climate and climate signals. When the climate simulations were used to drive a macroscale hydrology model at the Columbia River basin, the simulated streamflow signal resembles that derived from hydrological simulations driven by observed climate. The streamflow simulations were considerably improved when a simple bias correction scheme was applied to the climate simulations. The coupled regional climate and macroscale hydrologic simulations demonstrate the prospect for generating and utilizing seasonal climate forecasts for managing reservoirs.

  10. The influence of the tropical circulation on Indian summer monsoon during ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jang, Y.; Straus, D. M.

    2009-12-01

    The influence of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the Indian Summer Monsoon circulation is studied; focus is on the mechanism involving the change in the tropical circulation, particularly in the western Pacific. The Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) is used for mechanistic studies on how the tropical circulation changes (especially movement of regions of ascent and descent) during ENSO influence the Indian Summer Monsoon. For this purpose, additional idealized heating is inserted into the full CAM in the context of summer simulations with climatological SST in order to induce rising motion anomalies that represent the modification of the Walker circulation under different summer time ENSO SST conditions. In this manner, the inadequacies of the parameterization of deep convection in responding to ENSO SST anomalies are avoided. The sensitivity of response of the idealized heating is also tested with different magnitudes and locations of the heating. The coefficients of 2K/day and 1K/day are used for the different magnitudes of the heating. The different locations of heating are inserted from the tropical Indian Ocean to the tropical central Pacific. The inserted heating in each tropical region simulated Gill type responses, although the strength and propagation of the responses are different with the different locations of the heating. Despite of the different locations of the heating, strong remote responses over the Indian region are consistently simulated in CAM while the heating moves from the Indian Ocean to the central Pacific. This is a sort of geophysical fluid dynamics approach, but in the context of a realistic model. My metrics for judging changes in Indian Monsoon circulation will emphasize the Monsoon 3-d circulation.

  11. Measuring past changes in ENSO variance using Mg/Ca measurements on individual planktic foraminifera

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marchitto, T. M.; Grist, H. R.; van Geen, A.

    2013-12-01

    Previous work in Soledad Basin, located off Baja California Sur in the eastern subtropical Pacific, supports a La Niña-like mean-state response to enhanced radiative forcing at both orbital and millennial (solar) timescales during the Holocene. Mg/Ca measurements on the planktic foraminifer Globigerina bulloides indicate cooling when insolation is higher, consistent with an ';ocean dynamical thermostat' response that shoals the thermocline and cools the surface in the eastern tropical Pacific. Some, but not all, numerical models simulate reduced ENSO variance (less frequent and/or less intense events) when the Pacific is driven into a La Niña-like mean state by radiative forcing. Hypothetically the question of ENSO variance can be examined by measuring individual planktic foraminiferal tests from within a sample interval. Koutavas et al. (2006) used d18O on single specimens of Globigerinoides ruber from the eastern equatorial Pacific to demonstrate a 50% reduction in variance at ~6 ka compared to ~2 ka, consistent with the sense of the model predictions at the orbital scale. Here we adapt this approach to Mg/Ca and apply it to the millennial-scale question. We present Mg/Ca measured on single specimens of G. bulloides (cold season) and G. ruber (warm season) from three time slices in Soledad Basin: the 20th century, the warm interval (and solar low) at 9.3 ka, and the cold interval (and solar high) at 9.8 ka. Each interval is uniformly sampled over a ~100-yr (~10-cm or more) window to ensure that our variance estimate is not biased by decadal-scale stochastic variability. Theoretically we can distinguish between changing ENSO variability and changing seasonality: a reduction in ENSO variance would result in narrowing of both the G. bulloides and G. ruber temperature distributions without necessarily changing the distance between their two medians; while a reduction in seasonality would cause the two species' distributions to move closer together.

  12. Predicting monthly precipitation along coastal Ecuador: ENSO and transfer function models

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Guenni, Lelys B.; García, Mariangel; Muñoz, Ángel G.; Santos, José L.; Cedeño, Alexandra; Perugachi, Carlos; Castillo, José

    2017-08-01

    It is well known that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modifies precipitation patterns in several parts of the world. One of the most impacted areas is the western coast of South America, where Ecuador is located. El Niño events that occurred in 1982-1983, 1987-1988, 1991-1992, and 1997-1998 produced important positive rainfall anomalies in the coastal zone of Ecuador, bringing considerable damage to livelihoods, agriculture, and infrastructure. Operational climate forecasts in the region provide only seasonal scale (e.g., 3-month averages) information, but during ENSO events it is key for decision-makers to use reliable sub-seasonal scale forecasts, which at the present time are still non-existent in most parts of the world. This study analyzes the potential predictability of coastal Ecuador rainfall at monthly scale. Instead of the discrete approach that considers training models using only particular seasons, continuous (i.e., all available months are used) transfer function models are built using standard ENSO indices to explore rainfall forecast skill along the Ecuadorian coast and Galápagos Islands. The modeling approach considers a large-scale contribution, represented by the role of a sea-surface temperature index, and a local-scale contribution represented here via the use of previous precipitation observed in the same station. The study found that the Niño3 index is the best ENSO predictor of monthly coastal rainfall, with a lagged response varying from 0 months (simultaneous) for Galápagos up to 3 months for the continental locations considered. Model validation indicates that the skill is similar to the one obtained using principal component regression models for the same kind of experiments. It is suggested that the proposed approach could provide skillful rainfall forecasts at monthly scale for up to a few months in advance.

  13. Inter ENSO variability and its influence over the South American monsoon system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. R. M. Drumond

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Previous studies have discussed the interannual variability of a meridional seesaw of dry and wet conditions over South America (SA associated to the modulation of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ. However, they did not explore if the variability inter ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation can be related to the phase changes of this dipole. To answer this question, an observational work was carried out to explore the atmospheric and Sea Surface Temperature (SST conditions related to the same ENSO signal and to opposite dipole phases. Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF analysis was applied over normalized Chen precipitation seasonal anomalies in order to find the dipole mode in the Austral Summer (December to February. The fourth rotated mode, explaining 6.6% of the total variance, consists of positive loading over the SACZ region and negative loading over northern Argentina. Extreme events were selected and enhanced activity of SACZ during the Summer season (SACZ+ was identified in nine years: five during La Niña events (LN and two in El Niño episodes (EN. On the other hand, inhibited manifestations of this system (SACZ- were identified in seven years: four in EN and two during LN. Power spectrum analysis indicated that the interannual variability of the precipitation dipole seems to be related to the low frequency and to the quasi-biennial part of ENSO variability. The ENSO events with the same signal can present opposite phases for the dipole. The results suggest that the displacement of the convection over Indonesia and western Pacific can play an important role to modulate the seesaw pattern.

  14. ENSO diversity as a result of the equatorial recharge oscillator interacting with noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Yanshan; Dommenget, Dietmar; Frauen, Claudia; Wales, Scott; Wang, Gang; Tyrrell, Nicholas

    2014-05-01

    In this study we address the cause of the diversity in the spatial structure of ENSO variability. We explore the idea that ENSO is a fixed pattern of variability following the recharge oscillator mechanism, which interacts with the atmospheric weather noise. We present a simulation in which a fixed pattern recharge oscillator model is coupled to an AGCM with a slab ocean model. The model is capable in simulating the leading modes of SST variability in the tropical Pacific with better agreement to the observations than most coupled GCMs in the CMIP database. The ENSO amplitude, seasonality, period, the structure of the leading pattern and its variations in an eastern and central Pacific pattern, i.e. EP El Nino and CP El Nino, are simulated very well by including the interaction of recharge oscillator and slab noise in our model. Furthermore, we find that the observed 1st EOF mode might result from the interaction between slab ocean noise and recharge oscillator which is believed to be only activated in a narrow band along the equator.

  15. The relative influence of ENSO and SAM on Antarctic Peninsula climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clem, Kyle R.; Renwick, James A.; McGregor, James; Fogt, Ryan L.

    2016-08-01

    Recent warming of the Antarctic Peninsula during austral autumn, winter, and spring has been linked to sea surface temperature (SST) trends in the tropical Pacific and tropical Atlantic, while warming of the northeast Peninsula during summer has been linked to a strengthening of westerly winds traversing the Peninsula associated with a positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Here we demonstrate that circulation changes associated with the SAM dominate interannual temperature variability across the entire Antarctic Peninsula during both summer and autumn, while relationships with tropical Pacific SST variability associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are strongest and statistically significant primarily during winter and spring only. We find the ENSO-Peninsula temperature relationship during autumn to be weak on interannual time scales and regional circulation anomalies associated with the SAM more important for interannual temperature variability across the Peninsula during autumn. Consistent with previous studies, western Peninsula temperatures during autumn, winter, and spring are closely tied to changes in the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL) and associated meridional wind anomalies. The interannual variability of ASL depth is most strongly correlated with the SAM index during autumn, while the ENSO relationship is strongest during winter and spring. Investigation of western and northeast Peninsula temperatures separately reveals that interannual variability of northeast Peninsula temperatures is primarily sensitive to zonal wind anomalies crossing the Peninsula and resultant leeside adiabatic warming rather than to meridional wind anomalies, which is closely tied to variability in the zonal portion of the SAM pattern.

  16. Information Entropy Suggests Stronger Nonlinear Associations between Hydro-Meteorological Variables and ENSO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tue M. Vu

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the teleconnections between hydro-meteorological data and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation cycle (ENSO is an important step towards developing flood early warning systems. In this study, the concept of mutual information (MI was applied using marginal and joint information entropy to quantify the linear and non-linear relationship between annual streamflow, extreme precipitation indices over Mekong river basin, and ENSO. We primarily used Pearson correlation as a linear association metric for comparison with mutual information. The analysis was performed at four hydro-meteorological stations located on the mainstream Mekong river basin. It was observed that the nonlinear correlation information is comparatively higher between the large-scale climate index and local hydro-meteorology data in comparison to the traditional linear correlation information. The spatial analysis was carried out using all the grid points in the river basin, which suggests a spatial dependence structure between precipitation extremes and ENSO. Overall, this study suggests that mutual information approach can further detect more meaningful connections between large-scale climate indices and hydro-meteorological variables at different spatio-temporal scales. Application of nonlinear mutual information metric can be an efficient tool to better understand hydro-climatic variables dynamics resulting in improved climate-informed adaptation strategies.

  17. On the relationship between the QBO/ENSO and atmospheric temperature using COSMIC radio occultation data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Pan; Xu, Xiaohua; Zhang, Xiaohong

    2017-04-01

    In this paper, the spatial patterns and vertical structure of atmospheric temperature anomalies, in both the tropics and the extratropical latitudes, associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the upper troposphere and stratosphere are investigated using global positioning system (GPS) radio occultation (RO) measurements from the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC) Formosa Satellite Mission 3 mission from July 2006 to February 2014. We find that negative correlations between the atmospheric temperature in the tropics and ENSO are observed at 17-30 km in the lower stratosphere at a lag of 1-4 months and at a lead of 1 month. Out-of-phase temperature variation is observed in the troposphere over the mid-latitude band and in-phase behaviour is observed in the lower stratosphere. Interestingly, we also find that there is a significant negative correlation at a lag of 1-3 months from 32 km to 40 km in the mid-latitude region of the Northern Hemisphere. The atmospheric temperature variations over mid-latitude regions in both hemispheres are closely related to the QBO. There are also two narrow zones over the subtropical jet zone where the QBO signals are strong in both hemispheres, approximately parallel to the equator. Finally, we develop a new robust index to describe the strength of the ENSO and QBO signal.

  18. Does stratosphereic sudden warming occur more frequently during ENSO winters than during normal winters?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Son, Seok-Woo; Song, Kanghyun

    2017-04-01

    Stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) events exhibit pronounced interannual variability. Based on WMO definition of SSW, it has been suggested that SSW events occur more preferably during El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) winters (both El Niño and La Niña winters) than during normal winters. This nonlinear relationship is re-examined here by considering six different definitions of SSW. For all definitions, SSW events are detected more frequently during El Niño winters than during normal winters, in consistent with an enhanced planetary-scale wave activity. However, a systematic relationship is not found during La Niña winters. While two SSW definitions, including WMO definition, show an increased SSW frequency during La Niña winters, other definitions show no change or even a reduced SSW frequency. This result is insensitive to the choice of reanalysis datasets and ENSO index, indicating that the reported ENSO-SSW relationship is not robust but dependent on the details of SSW definition.

  19. The impact of ENSO on Southern African rainfall in CMIP5 ocean atmosphere coupled climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dieppois, Bastien; Rouault, Mathieu; New, Mark

    2015-11-01

    We study the ability of 24 ocean atmosphere global coupled models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) to reproduce the teleconnections between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Southern African rainfall in austral summer using historical forced simulations, with a focus on the atmospheric dynamic associated with El Niño. Overestimations of summer rainfall occur over Southern Africa in all CMIP5 models. Abnormal westward extensions of ENSO patterns are a common feature of all CMIP5 models, while the warming of the Indian Ocean that happens during El Niño is not correctly reproduced. This could impact the teleconnection between ENSO and Southern African rainfall which is represented with mixed success in CMIP5 models. Large-scale anomalies of suppressed deep-convection over the tropical maritime continent and enhanced convection from the central to eastern Pacific are correctly simulated. However, regional biases occur above Africa and the Indian Ocean, particularly in the position of the deep convection anomalies associated with El Niño, which can lead to the wrong sign in rainfall anomalies in the northwest part of South Africa. From the near-surface to mid-troposphere, CMIP5 models underestimate the observed anomalous pattern of pressure occurring over Southern Africa that leads to dry conditions during El Niño years.

  20. Influence of the preceding austral summer Southern Hemisphere annular mode on the amplitude of ENSO decay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Fei; Li, Jianping; Ding, Ruiqiang

    2017-11-01

    There is increasing evidence of the possible role of extratropical forcing in the evolution of ENSO. The Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM) is the dominant mode of atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere extratropics. This study shows that the austral summer (December-January-February; DJF) SAM may also influence the amplitude of ENSO decay during austral autumn (March-April-May; MAM). The mechanisms associated with this SAM-ENSO relationship can be briefly summarized as follows: The SAM is positively (negatively) correlated with SST in the Southern Hemisphere middle (high) latitudes. This dipole-like SST anomaly pattern is referred to as the Southern Ocean Dipole (SOD). The DJF SOD, caused by the DJF SAM, could persist until MAM and then influence atmospheric circulation, including trade winds, over the Niño3.4 area. Anomalous trade winds and SST anomalies over the Niño3.4 area related to the DJF SAM are further developed through the Bjerkness feedback, which eventually results in a cooling (warming) over the Niño3.4 area followed by the positive (negative) DJF SAM.

  1. ENSO's non-stationary and non-Gaussian character: the role of climate shifts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Boucharel

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO is the dominant mode of climate variability in the Pacific, having socio-economic impacts on surrounding regions. ENSO exhibits significant modulation on decadal to inter-decadal time scales which is related to changes in its characteristics (onset, amplitude, frequency, propagation, and predictability. Some of these characteristics tend to be overlooked in ENSO studies, such as its asymmetry (the number and amplitude of warm and cold events are not equal and the deviation of its statistics from those of the Gaussian distribution. These properties could be related to the ability of the current generation of coupled models to predict ENSO and its modulation.

    Here, ENSO's non-Gaussian nature and asymmetry are diagnosed from in situ data and a variety of models (from intermediate complexity models to full-physics coupled general circulation models (CGCMs using robust statistical tools initially designed for financial mathematics studies. In particular α-stable laws are used as theoretical background material to measure (and quantify the non-Gaussian character of ENSO time series and to estimate the skill of ``naïve'' statistical models in producing deviation from Gaussian laws and asymmetry. The former are based on non-stationary processes dominated by abrupt changes in mean state and empirical variance. It is shown that the α-stable character of ENSO may result from the presence of climate shifts in the time series. Also, cool (warm periods are associated with ENSO statistics having a stronger (weaker tendency towards Gaussianity and lower (greater asymmetry. This supports the hypothesis of ENSO being rectified by changes in mean state through nonlinear processes. The relationship between changes in mean state and nonlinearity (skewness is further investigated both in the Zebiak and Cane (1987's model and the models of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC. Whereas

  2. Mid to late Holocene Leeuwin Current variability offshore southern Australia linked to ENSO state changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perner, Kerstin; Moros, Matthias; De Deckker, Patrick; Blanz, Thomas; Siegel, Herbert; Wacker, Lukas; Schneider, Ralph; Jansen, Eystein

    2015-04-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a key aspect of the Earth's climate, drives regional to global oceanic and climate changes on various time-scales. Differences in the temporal coverage of Holocene records for the more general state in El Niño frequency, however, restrict a comprehensive overview. Oceanic variability offshore southern Australia is linked to the Leeuwin Current (LC), an eastern boundary current, transporting tropical waters from the Indo Pacific Warm Pool region towards higher latitudes. Instrumental data, spanning the last few decades, document that ENSO modulates LC variability. Here we present new, well-dated time series from two marine sediment cores (MD03-2611 and SS0206-GC 15)of past LC variability, based on alkenone-derived sea-surface temperatures (SST) and planktonic foraminifera offshore southern Australia, an area affected by recent El Niño and La Niña events. Our reconstructions of ENSO-state changes cover the last 7,400 years. With transition into the mid Holocene [dates], we find clear evidence that oceanic conditions prevailed under the dominant influence of a persistent La Niña mode. A strong LC produces a stratified water column and establishes a permanent thermocline as seen in the high abundance of the 'tropical fauna' (Globoturborotalita rubescens, Globoturborotalita tenella and Globigerinella sacculifer (including G. trilobus)) and maximum SST offshore southern Australia. During this La Niña-state dominated period, we record at c. 5000 years BP the first short period of a strong El Niño-like-state, by a pronounced drop in abundance of the subtropical species Globigerinoides ruber and a reduced SST gradient between the two core sites. The Late Holocene (from 3,500 years BP onwards) period is characterized by centennial to millennial scale variability in the LC strength, which is accompanied by an overall decrease of SSTs offshore southern Australia. We link this LC variability to Late Holocene centennial

  3. Analytical Formulation of Equatorial Standing Wave Phenomena: Application to QBO and ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pukite, P. R.

    2016-12-01

    Key equatorial climate phenomena such as QBO and ENSO have never been adequately explained as deterministic processes. This in spite of recent research showing growing evidence of predictable behavior. This study applies the fundamental Laplace tidal equations with simplifying assumptions along the equator — i.e. no Coriolis force and a small angle approximation. To connect the analytical Sturm-Liouville results to observations, a first-order forcing consistent with a seasonally aliased Draconic or nodal lunar period (27.21d aliased into 2.36y) is applied. This has a plausible rationale as it ties a latitudinal forcing cycle via a cross-product to the longitudinal terms in the Laplace formulation. The fitted results match the features of QBO both qualitatively and quantitatively; adding second-order terms due to other seasonally aliased lunar periods provides finer detail while remaining consistent with the physical model. Further, running symbolic regression machine learning experiments on the data provided a validation to the approach, as it discovered the same analytical form and fitted values as the first principles Laplace model. These results conflict with Lindzen's QBO model, in that his original formulation fell short of making the lunar connection, even though Lindzen himself asserted "it is unlikely that lunar periods could be produced by anything other than the lunar tidal potential".By applying a similar analytical approach to ENSO, we find that the tidal equations need to be replaced with a Mathieu-equation formulation consistent with describing a sloshing process in the thermocline depth. Adapting the hydrodynamic math of sloshing, we find a biennial modulation coupled with angular momentum forcing variations matching the Chandler wobble gives an impressive match over the measured ENSO range of 1880 until the present. Lunar tidal periods and an additional triaxial nutation of 14 year period provide additional fidelity. The caveat is a phase

  4. Eastern and Central Pacific ENSO and their relationships to the recharge/discharge oscillator paradigm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, A.; Delcroix, T.

    2012-12-01

    Four major theories have been proposed to explain the oscillatory nature of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the largest signal on interannual timescales in the tropical Pacific Ocean. These theories, however, were proposed more than a decade ago, before the recent enhanced attention given to a 'new' flavor of El Niño referred to here as central Pacific (CP) El Niño. Different structures between eastern Pacific (EP) and CP events have been found and documented by looking at the location of anomalous patterns in usual climate and biological variables (e.g., sea surface temperature and salinity, wind stress, precipitation, surface zonal currents and chlorophyll). The contrasted EP and CP ENSO features were, however, very poorly documented in terms of dynamics. Consequently, this study aims to test the applicability of one of the leading ENSO theories, the recharge/discharge (RD) oscillator paradigm, to explain the EP and CP ENSO features. In brief, the RD paradigm emphasizes that there is an inward flux of warm waters entering the equatorial band (recharge) at the onset and an outward flux (discharge) during an El Niño event. Accordingly, a key element of the RD paradigm, as well as a notable ENSO precursor, is warm water volume (WWV) and a good proxy for this is sea level anomaly (SLA). We first show the existence of the different flavors of ENSO in the tropical Pacific using monthly 1993-2010 SLA obtained from altimetry, and a validated 1958-2007 DRAKKAR model simulation. An Agglomerative Hierarchical Clustering (AHC) technique performed on the observed and modeled WWV, together with the corresponding sea surface temperature, shows the existence of four distinct clusters, which are reminiscent of the conventional EP El Niño and La Niña, and CP El Niño and La Niña. The patterns of EP El Niño and La Niña clusters are almost symmetrical and show a zonal see-saw pattern pivoted near the eastern edge of the western Pacific warm pool (at around 180

  5. Response of Global Lightning Activity Observed by the TRMM/LIS During Warm and Cold ENSO Phases

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    Chronis, Themis G.; Cecil, Dan; Goodman, Steven J.; Buechler, Dennis

    2007-01-01

    This paper investigates the response of global lightning activity to the transition from the warm (January February March-JFM 1998) to the cold (JFM 1999) ENSO phase. The nine-year global lightning climatology for these months from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) provides the observational baseline. Flash rate density is computed on a 5.0x5.0 degree lat/lon grid within the LIS coverage area (between approx.37.5 N and S) for each three month period. The flash rate density anomalies from this climatology are examined for these months in 1998 and 1999. The observed lightning anomalies spatially match the documented general circulation features that accompany the warm and cold ENSO events. During the warm ENSO phase the dominant positive lightning anomalies are located mostly over the Western Hemisphere and more specifically over Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and Northern Mid-Atlantic. We further investigate specifically the Northern Mid-Atlantic related anomaly features since these show strong relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Furthermore these observed anomaly patterns show strong spatial agreement with anomalous upper level (200 mb) cold core cyclonic circulations. Positive sea surface temperature anomalies during the warm ENSO phase also affect the lightning activity, but this is mostly observed near coastal environments. Over the open tropical oceans, there is climatologically less lightning and the anomalies are less pronounced. Warm ENSO related anomalies over the Eastern Hemisphere are most prominent over the South China coast. The transition to the cold ENSO phase illustrates the detected lightning anomalies to be more pronounced over East and West Pacific. A comparison of total global lightning between warm and cold ENSO phase reveals no significant difference, although prominent regional anomalies are located over mostly oceanic environments. All three tropical "chimneys" (Maritime Continent, Central

  6. Eventos de tiempo severo inducidos por el ENSO en la temporada invernal cubana

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    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available ÉVÉNEMENTS MÉTÉOROLOGIQUES SÉVÈRES INDUITS PAR LES ENSO AU COURS DE LA PÉRIODE HIVERNALE À CUBA. La période hivernale à Cuba correspond généralement à la période sèche, au cours de laquelle, à l’inverse de ce qui se passe en été, on n’enregistre généralement pas de séquence pluviométrique sévère. Cependant, l’influence de l’ENSO peut activer des systèmes météorologiques de manière anormale pour des latitudes aussi basses. Il se produit alors relativement souvent des séquences météorologiques sévères de 24 à 48 heures de durée, avec l’avancée de lignes de grains, des pluies intenses, des tornades, de la grêle et des inondations dans les zones côtières. Ceci provoque des morts et de gros dégâts. Les climatologues reconnaissent l’ENSO comme la cause la plus importante de variabilité climatique inter-annuelle de la planète. Ils en décrivent et en prédisent les effets, comme les anomalies de précipitations ou de températures. Cependant on ne peut évaluer de manière plus précise ces conséquences qu’en étudiant les systèmes synoptiques induits par l’ENSO, qui sont responsables de ces excès. Cette étape est indispensable pour la mise en place d’un système d’alerte avancé requis par la Défense Civile. On montre, dans cet article, le rôle joué par le jet-stream subtropical, dans la formation de ces événements climatologiques sévères. Ainsi, l’étude des périodes hivernales affectées par un ENSO depuis 1957-58 jusqu’à 1996-97 a permis d’établir des situations types des niveaux de surface et supérieurs de l’atmosphère, associés à des événements sévères induits par l’ENSO. On présente aussi des exemples des conséquences des principaux événements. A l’aide de ces situations types, on a pu élaborer un système d’alerte avancée mis à la disposition de la Défense Civile et permettant d’effectuer des prévisions à 7 et à 10 jours. La temporada invernal cubana

  7. Simulation of ENSO Forcings on U.S. Drought by the HadCM3 Coupled Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busby, S. J.; Briffa, K.; Osborn, T.

    2007-05-01

    The ability of the HadCM3 coupled ocean - atmosphere general circulation model to represent the mechanisms linking the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and drought in the U.S. is investigated. Rotated principal components analyses of a self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) data are used to identify the dominant modes of summer drought variability in the observed climate record (1901-2002), and in a 250-year period of a HadCM3 control run. A similar mode of drought variability is identified in both data sets that is correlated with ENSO variability: a monopolar pattern across the continental interior, centred in the southern states. HadCM3 successfully reproduces the displacement of the mid-latitude jet streams during ENSO events, a mechanism related to U.S. drought variability, but the model appears to be less realistic in its simulation of the influence of Rossby wave teleconections on drought, possibly due to errors in its simulation of ENSO in the equatorial Pacific. Despite this, we conclude that HadCM3's simulation of the link between ENSO and U.S. drought is sufficiently realistic for it to be used in further studies of U.S. drought variability.

  8. Northern winter stratospheric temperature and ozone responses to ENSO inferred from an ensemble of Chemistry Climate Models

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    W. Tian

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available The connection between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO and the Northern polar stratosphere has been established from observations and atmospheric modeling. Here a systematic inter-comparison of the sensitivity of the modeled stratosphere to ENSO in Chemistry Climate Models (CCMs is reported. This work uses results from a number of the CCMs included in the 2006 ozone assessment. In the lower stratosphere, the mean of all model simulations reports a warming of the polar vortex during strong ENSO events in February–March, consistent with but smaller than the estimate from satellite observations and ERA40 reanalysis. The anomalous warming is associated with an anomalous dynamical increase of column ozone north of 70° N that is accompanied by coherent column ozone decrease in the Tropics, in agreement with that deduced from the NIWA column ozone database, implying an increased residual circulation in the mean of all model simulations during ENSO. The spread in the model responses is partly due to the large internal stratospheric variability and it is shown that it crucially depends on the representation of the tropospheric ENSO teleconnection in the models.

  9. Effects of Changes in ENSO on Seasonal Mean Temperature and Rainfall in Nigeria

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    Opeyemi R. Salau

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the effects of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO on temperature and rainfall in Nigeria. The persistent rise in population with more demands for rainfall and water supply in Nigeria requires a better understanding of the impacts of ENSO (La Niña, El Niño induced changes on the precipitation patterns under future climate conditions. Thus, we compared the sea surface temperature (SST from the ENSO regions of the Tropical Pacific Ocean (Niño 3 (150°W–90°W, 5°S–5°N and Niño 4 (160°E–150°W, 5°S–5°N with the observed temperature from Nigeria and the temperature is further compared with the associated rainfall. The results show that an increase or decrease in the Niño 3 and Niño 4 SST is accompanied by a corresponding change in the temperature over Nigeria; however, there is better agreement with the Niño 3 SST compared to the Niño 4 SST. The investigation suggests that a slight northward (southward shift in the mean position of Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ during a La Niña (El Niño event is followed by a reduction (increase in the average temperature within Nigeria while the mean precipitation rises (reduces over the country. These results could aid weather prediction which might improve the economy as well as save lives and property during climate-related hazards like drought, forest fires and floods.

  10. Significant influences of global mean temperature and ENSO on extreme rainfall over Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villafuerte, Marcelino, II; Matsumoto, Jun

    2014-05-01

    Along with the increasing concerns on the consequences of global warming, and the accumulating records of disaster related to heavy rainfall events in Southeast Asia, this study investigates whether a direct link can be detected between the rising global mean temperature, as well as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and extreme rainfall over the region. The maximum likelihood modeling that allows incorporating covariates on the location parameter of the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is employed. The GEV model is fitted to annual and seasonal rainfall extremes, which were taken from a high-resolution gauge-based gridded daily precipitation data covering a span of 57 years (1951-2007). Nonstationarities in extreme rainfall are detected over the central parts of Indochina Peninsula, eastern coasts of central Vietnam, northwest of the Sumatra Island, inland portions of Borneo Island, and on the northeastern and southwestern coasts of the Philippines. These nonstationarities in extreme rainfall are directly linked to near-surface global mean temperature and ENSO. In particular, the study reveals that a kelvin increase in global mean temperature anomaly can lead to an increase of 30% to even greater than 45% in annual maximum 1-day rainfall, which were observed pronouncedly over central Vietnam, southern coast of Myanmar, northwestern sections of Thailand, northwestern tip of Sumatra, central portions of Malaysia, and the Visayas island in central Philippines. Furthermore, a pronounced ENSO influence manifested on the seasonal maximum 1-day rainfall; a northward progression of 10%-15% drier condition over Southeast Asia as the El Niño develops from summer to winter is revealed. It is important therefore, to consider the results obtained here for water resources management as well as for adaptation planning to minimize the potential adverse impact of global warming, particularly on extreme rainfall and its associated flood risk over the region

  11. Vegetation anomalies associated with the ENSO phenomenon in the Cauca river valley, Colombia

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    J. M. Valencia

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The main factors affecting the production and yield of sugarcane are variety, agronomic management, soil type and climate, of which the first three there is some control, while the climate is one factor of which you cannot have any control, therefore, it should be monitored. Colombia, being located in the equatorial pacific, is affected by two atmospheric oceanic phenomena known as “El Niño” and “La Niña”, which make up the climatic phenomenon of ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation and affect the quantity and the number of days with rainfall and influences the production of sugarcane. The objective of this work is to identify spatially and temporally the zones with greater and lower impact of the ENSO phenomenon in the cultivation of sugarcane in Colombia through the use of the Standard Vegetation Index (SVI and the Rainfall Anomally Index (RAI using EVI/MODIS images and precipitation data from meteorological stations on a quarterly basis for the period 2000-2015. A similar trend was found between both indices in the “El Niño” and “Neutral” seasons, while in the “La Niña” season the RAI tended to rise while the SVI decreased when the RAI was very high, this tendency being much more marked in areas with floods caused by the overflow of the main rivers. In addition, a comparison was made between the SVI index and a productivity anomaly index (IAP, finding a direct correlation between both (R2 = 0.4, p<0.001. This work showed that through the use of vegetation indexes, a temporal analysis of the impact of climate on an agricultural crop can be carried out, especially with ENSO conditions.

  12. Massive bleaching of coral reefs induced by the 2010 ENSO, Puerto Cabello, Venezuela.

    Science.gov (United States)

    del Mónaco, Carlos; Haiek, Gerard; Narciso, Samuel; Galindo, Miguel

    2012-06-01

    El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has generated global coral massive bleaching. The aim of this work was to evaluate the massive bleaching of coral reefs in Puerto Cabello, Venezuela derived from ENSO 2010. We evaluated the bleaching of reefs at five localities both at three and five meter depth. The coral cover and densities of colonies were estimated. We recorded living coral cover, number and diameter of bleached and non-bleached colonies of each coral species. The colonies were classified according to the proportion of bleached area. Satellite images (Modis Scar) were analyzed for chlorophyll-a concentration and temperature in August, September, October and November from 2008-2010. Precipitation, wind speed and air temperature information was evaluated in meteorological data for 2009 and 2010. A total of 58.3% of colonies, belonging to 11 hexacoral species, were affected and the greatest responses were observed in Colpophyllia natans, Montastraea annularis and Montastraeafaveolata. The most affected localities were closer to the mainland and had a bleached proportion up to 62.73+/-36.55%, with the highest proportion of affected colonies, whereas the farthest locality showed 20.25+/-14.00% bleached and the smallest proportion. The salinity in situ varied between 30 and 33ppm and high levels of turbidity were observed. According to the satellite images, in 2010 the surface water temperature reached 31 degree C in August, September and October, and resulted higher than those registered in 2008 and 2009. Regionally, chlorophyll values were higher in 2010 than in 2008 and 2009. The meteorological data indicated that precipitation in November 2010 was three times higher than in November 2009. Massive coral bleaching occurred due to a three month period of high temperatures followed by one month of intense ENSO-associated precipitation. However, this latter factor was likely the trigger because of the bleaching gradient observed.

  13. Trophic and environmental drivers of the Sechura Bay Ecosystem (Peru) over an ENSO cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Marc H.; Wolff, Matthias; Vadas, Flora; Yamashiro, Carmen

    2008-03-01

    Interannual environmental variability in Peru is dominated by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The most dramatic changes are associated with the warm El Niño (EN) phase (opposite the cold La Niña phase), which disrupts the normal coastal upwelling and affects the dynamics of many coastal marine and terrestrial resources. This study presents a trophic model for Sechura Bay, located at the northern extension of the Peruvian upwelling system, where ENSO-induced environmental variability is most extreme. Using an initial steady-state model for the year 1996, we explore the dynamics of the ecosystem through the year 2003 (including the strong EN of 1997/98 and the weaker EN of 2002/03). Based on support from literature, we force biomass of several non-trophically-mediated ‘drivers’ (e.g. Scallops, Benthic detritivores, Octopus, and Littoral fish) to observe whether the fit between historical and simulated changes (by the trophic model) is improved. The results indicate that the Sechura Bay Ecosystem is a relatively inefficient system from a community energetics point of view, likely due to the periodic perturbations of ENSO. A combination of high system productivity and low trophic level target species of invertebrates (i.e. scallops) and fish (i.e. anchoveta) results in high catches and an efficient fishery. The importance of environmental drivers is suggested, given the relatively small improvements in the fit of the simulation with the addition of trophic drivers on remaining functional groups’ dynamics. An additional multivariate regression model is presented for the scallop Argopecten purpuratus, which demonstrates a significant correlation between both spawning stock size and riverine discharge-mediated mortality on catch levels. These results are discussed in the context of the appropriateness of trophodynamic modeling in relatively open systems, and how management strategies may be focused given the highly environmentally influenced marine

  14. ENSO influence on the interannual variability of the Red Sea convergence zone and associated rainfall

    KAUST Repository

    Dasari, Hari Prasad

    2017-07-18

    The Red Sea convergence zone (RSCZ) is formed by opposite surface winds blowing from northwest to southeast directions at around 18°-19°N between October and January. A reverse-oriented, low-level monsoon trough at 850hPa, known as the Red Sea trough (RST), transfers moisture from the southern Red Sea to RSCZ. The positions of the RSCZ and RST and the intensity of the RST have been identified as important factors in modulating weather and climatic conditions across the Middle East. Here, we investigate the influence of the El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) on the interannual variability of RSCZ, RST, and regional rainfall during winter months. Our results indicate that El Niño (warm ENSO phase) favours a shift of the RSCZ to the north and a strengthening of the RST in the same direction. Conversely, during November and December of La Niña periods (cold ENSO phase), the RSCZ shift to the south and the RST strengthens in the same direction. During El Niño periods, southeasterly wind speeds increase (20-30%) over the southern Red Sea and northwesterly wind speeds decrease (10-15%) over the northern Red Sea. Noticeable increases in the number of rainy days and the intensity of rain events are observed during El Niño phases. These increases are associated with colder than normal air intrusion at lower levels from the north combined with warm air intrusion from the south over the RSCZ. Our analysis suggests that during El Niño winters, warmer sea surface temperatures and higher convective instability over the Red Sea favour local storms conditions and increase rainfall over the Red Sea and adjoining regions.

  15. A structural equation model analysis of relationships among ENSO, seasonal descriptors and wildfires.

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    Matthew G Slocum

    Full Text Available Seasonality drives ecological processes through networks of forcings, and the resultant complexity requires creative approaches for modeling to be successful. Recently ecologists and climatologists have developed sophisticated methods for fully describing seasons. However, to date the relationships among the variables produced by these methods have not been analyzed as networks, but rather with simple univariate statistics. In this manuscript we used structural equation modeling (SEM to analyze a proposed causal network describing seasonality of rainfall for a site in south-central Florida. We also described how this network was influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO, and how the network in turn affected the site's wildfire regime. Our models indicated that wet and dry seasons starting later in the year (or ending earlier were shorter and had less rainfall. El Niño conditions increased dry season rainfall, and via this effect decreased the consistency of that season's drying trend. El Niño conditions also negatively influenced how consistent the moistening trend was during the wet season, but in this case the effect was direct and did not route through rainfall. In modeling wildfires, our models showed that area burned was indirectly influenced by ENSO via its effect on dry season rainfall. Area burned was also indirectly reduced when the wet season had consistent rainfall, as such wet seasons allowed fewer wildfires in subsequent fire seasons. Overall area burned at the study site was estimated with high accuracy (R (2 score = 0.63. In summary, we found that by using SEMs, we were able to clearly describe causal patterns involving seasonal climate, ENSO and wildfire. We propose that similar approaches could be effectively applied to other sites where seasonality exerts strong and complex forcings on ecological processes.

  16. Southern Westerly Winds submit to the ENSO regime: A multiproxy paleohydrology record from Lake Dobson, Tasmania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rees, Andrew B. H.; Cwynar, Les C.; Fletcher, Michael-Shawn

    2015-10-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Southern Westerly Winds (SWW) profoundly influence synoptic-scale climate in the Southern Hemisphere. Although many studies have invoked either phenomenon to explain trends in proxy data, few have demonstrated the transition from a climate dominated by SWW flow to one controlled by El Niño activity, which is postulated to have occurred after 5 cal ka BP in the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere. Tasmania, southeast Australia, is ideally situated to detect changes in both of these climatic controls. Currently, El Niño and La Niña events result in drier and wetter conditions island-wide, respectively, with the greatest impact in the north. Further, Tasmania houses north-south trending mountain ranges near its western coast. As a result, areas west of the mountains exhibit a positive correlation between SWW flow and precipitation, while eastern regions possess either no or a negative relationship. Here, we present data from chironomid remains, charcoal, and geochemical proxies to investigate the paleohydrological history of Lake Dobson, a site located in Mount Field National Park, Tasmania. The proxies revealed three broad periods: (1) an early Holocene (11.5-8.3 cal kyr BP) characterised by generally high rainfall, the occurrence of irregular fires, and elevated charcoal influx at 11.4 and 10.2 cal ka BP - conditions compatible with attenuated SWW flow over the site; (2) an ambiguous mid-Holocene (8.3-5 cal kyr BP) that marks the transition from a SWW- to ENSO-dominated climate; and (3) a relatively dry and stable late Holocene (5 cal kyr BP to present) that is consistent with the onset of a climate controlled by ENSO activity (i.e., characterised by a more mean El Niño climate state). The proxy record of Lake Dobson highlights the teleconnections between the equatorial Pacific and southern Australasia.

  17. Tropospheric column ozone response to ENSO in GEOS-5 assimilation of OMI and MLS ozone data

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    M. A. Olsen

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available We use GEOS-5 analyses of Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS ozone observations to investigate the magnitude and spatial distribution of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO influence on tropospheric column ozone (TCO into the middle latitudes. This study provides the first explicit spatially resolved characterization of the ENSO influence and demonstrates coherent patterns and teleconnections impacting the TCO in the extratropics. The response is evaluated and characterized by both the variance explained and sensitivity of TCO to the Niño 3.4 index. The tropospheric response in the tropics agrees well with previous studies and verifies the analyses. A two-lobed response symmetric about the Equator in the western Pacific/Indonesian region seen in some prior studies and not in others is confirmed here. This two-lobed response is consistent with the large-scale vertical transport. We also find that the large-scale transport in the tropics dominates the response compared to the small-scale convective transport. The ozone response is weaker in the middle latitudes, but a significant explained variance of the TCO is found over several small regions, including the central United States. However, the sensitivity of TCO to the Niño 3.4 index is statistically significant over a large area of the middle latitudes. The sensitivity maxima and minima coincide with anomalous anti-cyclonic and cyclonic circulations where the associated vertical transport is consistent with the sign of the sensitivity. Also, ENSO related changes to the mean tropopause height can contribute significantly to the midlatitude response. Comparisons to a 22-year chemical transport model simulation demonstrate that these results from the 9-year assimilation are representative of the longer term. This investigation brings insight to several seemingly disparate prior studies of the El Niño influence on tropospheric ozone in the middle latitudes.

  18. ENSO variability reflected in precipitation oxygen isotopes across the Asian Summer Monsoon region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Zhongyin; Tian, Lide; Bowen, Gabriel J.

    2017-10-01

    Oxygen isotope signals (δ18O) from paleo-archives are important proxies for past Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) climate reconstruction. However, causes of interannual variation in the δ18O values of modern precipitation across the ASM region remain in argument. We report interannual δ18O variation in southern Tibetan Plateau precipitation based on long-term observations at Lhasa. These data, together with precipitation δ18O records from five Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) stations and two ice core δ18O records, were used to define a regional metric of ASM precipitation δ18O (ASMOI). Back-trajectory analyses for rainy season precipitation events indicate that moisture sources vary little between years with relatively high and low δ18O values, a result that is consistent for the south (Lhasa), southeast (Bangkok), and east ASM regions (Hong Kong). In contrast, δ18O values at these three locations are significantly correlated with convection in the estimated source regions and along transport paths. These results suggest that upstream convection, rather than moisture source change, causes interannual variation in ASM precipitation δ18O values. Contrasting values of the ASMOI in El Niño and La Niña years reveal a positive isotope-El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response (e.g., high values corresponding to warm phases), which we interpret as a response to changes in regional convection. We show that the isotope-ENSO response is amplified at high elevation sites and during La Niña years. These findings should improve interpretations of paleo-δ18O data as a proxy for past ASM variation and provide new opportunities to use data from this region to study paleo-ENSO activity.

  19. ENSO, the IOD and the intraseasonal prediction of heat extremes across Australia using POAMA-2

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Christopher J.; Hudson, Debra; Alves, Oscar

    2014-10-01

    The simulation and prediction of extreme heat over Australia on intraseasonal timescales in association with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is assessed using the Bureau of Meteorology's Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA). The analysis is based on hindcasts over 1981-2010 and focuses on weeks 2 and 3 of the forecasts, i.e. beyond a typical weather forecast. POAMA simulates the observed increased probabilities of extreme heat during El Niño events, focussed over south eastern and southern Australia in SON and over northern Australia in DJF, and the decreased probabilities of extreme heat during La Niña events, although the magnitude of these relationships is smaller than observed. POAMA also captures the signal of increased probabilities of extreme heat during positive phases of the IOD across southern Australia in SON and over Western Australia in JJA, but again underestimates the strength of the relationship. Shortcomings in the simulation of extreme heat in association with ENSO and the IOD over southern Australia may be linked to deficiencies in the teleconnection with Indian Ocean SSTs. Forecast skill for intraseasonal episodes of extreme heat is assessed using the Symmetric Extremal Dependence Index. Skill is highest over northern Australia in MAM and JJA and over south-eastern and eastern Australia in JJA and SON, whereas skill is generally poor over south-west Western Australia. Results show there are windows of forecast opportunity related to the state of ENSO and the IOD, where the skill in predicting extreme temperatures over certain regions is increased.

  20. ENSO and sandy beach macrobenthos of the tropical East Pacific: some speculations

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    T. Vanagt

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The influence of the ENSO cycle on marine fauna and flora has only recently been given the attention it deserves. The very strong 1997–1998 El Niño and its obvious effects on marine biota was a key point in ENSO research, but unfortunately few quantitative data about the 1997–1998 El Niño itself are available. To gather information about the effect of ENSO on the macrobenthos, we performed a bi-weekly transect monitoring on an Ecuadorian sandy beach in 2000–2001, during the strong La Niña following the 1997–1998 El Niño, and in the normal period of 2002–2004. In this paper, intertidal macrofaunal densities at higher taxonomic level are used to compare a La Niña phase with the 'normal' situation. The few existing documents about El Niño and sandy beach macrobenthos, and scattered data from previous and current research, were used to complete the picture. Total macrobenthos densities were 300% lower during the La Niña phase compared with equal months in the normal phase. Especially Crustacea and Mollusca showed a marked increase in densities towards the normal situation (94% and 341% respectively. Polychaeta and Echinodermata, however, showed higher densities during the La Niña phase (22% and 73% respectively. Two possible explanations are proposed. (1 Low densities during the La Niña could be due to the very strong preceding El Niño, suggesting the populations were still recovering. This hypothesis is supported by previous work done in the south of Peru. This is, however, a cold water system, compared to the Ecuadorian warm water system. (2 The second hypothesis states that a La Niña will have a very severe impact on the intertidal macrofauna of a warm water system like the Ecuadorian coast.

  1. The seasonally-varying influence of ENSO on rainfall and tropical cyclone activity in the Philippines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lyon, Bradfield [The Earth Institute at Columbia University, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, NY (United States); Camargo, Suzana J. [The Earth Institute at Columbia University, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, NY (United States); Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY (United States)

    2009-01-15

    An observational study covering the period 1950-2002 examines a seasonal reversal in the ENSO rainfall signal in the north-central Philippines. In boreal summer of El Nino (La Nina) events, above (below) average rainfall typically occurs in this area. Rainfall anomalies of opposite sign develop across the country in the subsequent fall. This study investigates the seasonal evolution of the anomalous atmospheric circulation over the western North Pacific (WNP) during both El Nino and La Nina and places these features in the context of the large-scale evolution of ENSO events, including an analysis of changes in tropical cyclone activity affecting the Philippines. The results show that during boreal summer of El Nino (La Nina) events, a relatively narrow, zonally elongated band of enhanced (reduced) low-level westerlies develops across the WNP which serves to increase (decrease) the summer monsoon flow and moisture flux over the north-central Philippines and is associated with an increase (decrease) in the strength of the WNP monsoon trough via the anomalous relative vorticity. Tropical cyclone activity is shown to be enhanced (reduced) in the study region during boreal summer of El Nino (La Nina) events, which is related to the increase (decrease) of mid-level atmospheric moisture, as diagnosed using a genesis potential index. The subsequent evolution shows development of an anomalous anticyclone (cyclone) over the WNP in El Nino (La Nina) and the well-known tendency for below (above) average rainfall in the fall. Prolonged ENSO events also exhibit seasonal rainfall sign reversals in the Philippines with a similar evolution in atmospheric circulation. (orig.)

  2. PDO modulation of the ENSO impact on the summer South Asian high

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Xu; Chen, Wen; Chen, Shangfeng; Feng, Juan

    2017-04-01

    This study investigates modulation effects of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) on the impact of boreal winter El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the South Asian high (SAH) variability in the following summer. In the El Niño together with positive PDO (EL/+PDO) or the La Niña together with negative PDO (LA/-PDO) years, boreal winter ENSO can influence the following summer SAH activity significantly. The SAH tends to be obviously strengthened (weakened) and located further south (north) during EL/+PDO (LA/-PDO). However, in the El Niño together with negative PDO (EL/-PDO) or the La Niña together with positive PDO (LA/+PDO) years, the influence of ENSO on the SAH tends to be weak. The strength and location of SAH are close to those in the climatology of 1950-2011 during the EL/-PDO or the LA/+PDO. Further analysis indicates that the PDO could exert pronounced influence on the ENSO-SAH connection via modulating the anomalous Walker circulation and charge effect over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). During the EL/+PDO or LA/-PDO, the anomalous Walker circulation associated with El Niño or La Niña is stronger and lasts for a longer time than those during the EL/-PDO or LA/+PDO. This leads to stronger descending (ascending) motion over the Maritime Continent and easterly (westerly) wind anomalies over the eastern Indian Ocean in the EL/+PDO (LA/-PDO), which further exert larger effects on the surface heat fluxes and subsurface ocean dynamical heating process over the Indian Ocean. As such, the induced warm (cold) sea surface temperature anomalies over the Indian Ocean are more significant and larger in the EL/+PDO (LA/-PDO). These larger sea surface temperature anomalies over the TIO could exert a more significant influence on the tropospheric temperature via moisture adjustment, which subsequently results in stronger SAH variability in the EL/+PDO or the LA/-PDO.

  3. Recent potentially predictable droughts associated with the west Pacific warming mode and ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, C. C.; Hoell, A.; Shukla, S.; Kelley, C. P.; Harrison, L.

    2015-12-01

    The physicist John Archibald Wheeler suggested that "time is nature's way to keep everything from happening at once". The analog in climate science may be multi-modal analysis, which can be used to identify characteristic space-time patterns associated with major frequency modes (e.g. ENSO, the MJO or the PDO). Under such a paradigm some SST variations, and SST increases, can be meaningfully associated with modes of atmosphere-ocean variability. Here, we build on a recently published work focused on the 'West Pacific Warming Mode' (WPWM) and several new studies examining 'flavors of ENSO'. In this research, multi-modal analyses are applied to observations and to climate change simulations from coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models to help us explore interactions between these modes. Understanding these interactions and, by extension, their respective and combined influences on droughts may enable us to better identify drought prediction opportunities. This talk describes the thermodynamic structure of the WPWM, and suggests that warming in the Indo-Pacific warm pool is intensified by local increases in water vapor content. This observed warming has supported an enhanced west-to-central Pacific sea surface temperature gradient. This tendency appears to interact with ENSO variability, favoring La Niña-like conditions and associated teleconnections with East Africa. We examine potential WPWM contributions to drying in East Africa, and examine specific opportunities for regional drought prediction by comparing these boreal spring teleconnections with long-term (1900-2014) rainfall trends for southern Tanzania during boreal winter. While southern Tanzania has experienced substantial rainfall declines over the past 30 years, we suggest that these are mostly due to ENSO-related cooling in the Niño 3.4 region. In contrast, boreal spring declines appear to be strongly influenced by both the WPWM and Niño 4 SST. These analyses suggest that a multi

  4. ENSO-Type Signals Recorded in the Late Cretaceous Laminated Sediments of Songliao Basin, Northeast China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, E.; Wang, C.; Hinnov, L. A.; Wu, H.

    2014-12-01

    The quasi-periodic, ca. 2-7 year El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon globally influences the inter-annual variability of temperature and precipitation. Global warming may increase the frequency of extreme ENSO events. Although the Cretaceous plate tectonic configuration was different from today, the sedimentary record suggests that ENSO-type oscillations had existed at the time of Cretaceous greenhouse conditions. Cored Cretaceous lacustrine sediments from the Songliao Basin in Northeast China (SK-1 cores from the International Continental Drilling Program) potentially offer a partially varved record of Cretaceous paleoclimate. Fourteen polished thin sections from the depth interval 1096.12-1096.53 m with an age of 84.4 Ma were analyzed by optical and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). ImageJ software was applied to extract gray scale curves from optical images at pixel resolution. We tracked minimum values of the gray scale curves to estimate the thickness of each lamina. Five sedimentary structures were recognized: flaser bedding, wavy bedding, lenticular bedding, horizontal bedding, and massive layers. The mean layer thicknesses with different sedimentary structures range from 116 to 162mm, very close to the mean sedimentation rate estimated for this sampled interval, 135mm/year, indicating that the layers bounded by pure clay lamina with the minimum gray values are varves. SEM images indicate that a varve is composed, in succession, of one lamina rich in coarse silt, one lamina rich in fine silt, one clay-rich lamina with some silt, and one clay-rich lamina. This suggests that a Cretaceous year featured four distinct depositional seasons, two of which were rainy and the others were lacking precipitation. Spectral analysis of extended intervals of the tuned gray scale curve indicates the presence of inter-annual periodicities of 2.2-2.7 yr, 3.5-6.1 year, and 10.1-14.5 year consistent with those of modern ENSO cycles and solar cycles, as well as

  5. ENSO and Western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity simulated in a CGCM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iizuka, Satoshi; Matsuura, Tomonori [National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan)

    2008-06-15

    A high-resolution (T213) coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (CGCM) has been used to examine the relationship between El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP). The model simulates ENSO-like events similar to those observed, though the amplitude of the simulated Nino34 sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly is twice as large as observed. In El Nino (La Nina) years, the annual number of model TCs in the southeast quadrant of the WNP increases (decreases), while it decreases (increases) in the northwest quadrant. In spite of the significant difference in the mean genesis location of model TCs between El Nino and La Nina years, however, there is no significant simultaneous correlation between the annual number of model TCs over the entire WNP and model Nino34 SST anomalies. The annual number of model TCs, however, tends to decrease in the years following El Nino, relating to the development of anticyclonic circulation around the Philippine Sea in response to the SST anomalies in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Furthermore, it seems that the number of model TCs tends to increase in the years before El Nino. It is also shown that the number of TCs moving into the East Asia is fewer in October of El Nino years than La Nina years, related to the anomalous southward shift of mid-latitude westerlies, though no impact of ENSO on TC tracks is found in other months. It is found that model TCs have longer lifetimes due to the southeastward shift of mean TC genesis location in El Nino years than in La Nina years. As the result of longer fetch of TCs over warm SST, model TCs appear to be more intense in El Nino years. These relationships between ENSO and TC activity in the WNP are in good agreement with observational evidence, suggesting that a finer-resolution CGCM may become a powerful tool for understanding interannual variability of TC activity. (orig.)

  6. Quantifying the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) coupling to CO2 concentration and to the length of day variations

    CERN Document Server

    Mazzarella, A; Scafetta, N

    2012-01-01

    The El Ni\\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the Earth's strongest climate fluctuation on inter-annual time-scales and has global impacts although originating in the tropical Pacific. Many point indices have been developed to describe ENSO but the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is considered the most representative since it links six different meteorological parameters measured over the tropical Pacific. Extreme values of MEI are correlated to the extreme values of atmospheric CO2 concentration rate variations and negatively correlated to equivalent scale extreme values of the length of day (LOD) rate variation. We evaluate a first order conversion function between MEI and the other two indexes using their annual rate of variation. The quantification of the strength of the coupling herein evaluated provides a quantitative measure to test the accuracy of theoretical model predictions. Our results further confirm the idea that the major local and global Earth-atmosphere system mechanisms are significantly couple...

  7. Impacts of ENSO on multi-scale variations in sediment discharge from the Pearl River to the South China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Feng; Chen, Hui; Cai, Huayang; Luo, Xiangxin; Ou, Suying; Yang, Qingshu

    2017-09-01

    Sediment load delivered by rivers is an important terrestrial factor in the evolution and productivity of coastal ecosystems and coastal morphology. As the strongest interannual climate signal, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is closely related to variations in the hydrological cycle at global and regional scales. However, the influence of ENSO on temporal variations in sediment discharge is poorly understood. In this paper, we examine periodic variations in sediment discharge to the South China Sea from the Pearl River since the 1950s using wavelet transform analysis (WT). Furthermore, we apply cross wavelet spectrum (XWT) and wavelet coherence (WTC) to investigate the linkages between ENSO and sediment variability. The WT results revealed that periodic oscillations in sediment discharge in the Pearl River occurred annually (1 yr) before the 2000s, interannually (2-8 yr) from 1960-2002, and decadally (10-16 yr) from 1975-1995. These periodic variations in the sediment load series had common spectrum power with the water discharge and precipitation series, indicating an important climatic control. The XWT and WTC results revealed significant impacts of ENSO on precipitation, water discharge and sediment load at interannual time scales of 2-4.6 yr from 1960-2002 with a shift of patterns of ENSO on sediment variability after the 1970s. In addition, an in-phase relation between sediment discharge and ENSO at time scales of 10-16 yr from 1975-1995 was detected, indicating that variations at decadal scales could be related to other climatic teleconnections such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Compared with the spectrum structures of periodic variations in precipitation and water discharge and their relationship with ENSO, there was a loss of energy in the sediment load at annual time scales after 2002 that can be attributed to dam construction in the river basin. Our study provides perspectives on the connections between ENSO and sediment variability at

  8. What did drive extreme drought event in Indonesia during boreal summer/fall 2014?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iskandar, I.; Mardiansyah, W.; Setiabudidaya, D.; Poerwono, P.; Yusyian, I.; Dahlan, Z.

    2017-04-01

    There are at least five climate-drivers influencing temporal variability of the Indonesian precipitation system, namely the diurnal cycle, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), the monsoon system, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In particular, the IOD and the ENSO events will cause interannual variations in the Indonesian precipitation. During the positive IOD or the El Niño events, Indonesia experiences a severe drought event. On the other hand, during the negative IOD or the La Niña event, Indonesian will have excess precipitation. During 2014, most part of the Indonesian regions experience deficit precipitation leading to a severe drought event. This study is designed to evaluate the dynamics underlying the extreme climate event in 2014. Several climate indices, including the sea surface temperature (SST), outgoing long-wave radiation, and surface winds were evaluated to explain why Indonesia experience severe drought in 2014. The analysis indicates that the tropical Indo-Pacific climate modes (e.g. IOD and ENSO events) were in neutral conditions. It is, then, suggested that negative sea surface temperature anomalies in the Indonesian region, in particular in the eastern part suppressed convective activities leading to deficit precipitation over the maritime continent.

  9. Westerly wind bursts simulated in CAM4 and CCSM4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lian, Tao; Tang, Youmin; Zhou, Lei; Islam, Siraj Ul; Zhang, Chan; Li, Xiaojing; Ling, Zheng

    2017-04-01

    The equatorial westerly wind bursts (WWBs) play an important role in modulating and predicting the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In this study, the ability of the Community Atmospheric Model version 4 (CAM4) and the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) in simulating WWBs is systematically evaluated. Many characteristics of WWBs, including their longitude distributions, durations, zonal extensions, variabilities at seasonal, intraseasonal, and interannual timescales, as well as their relations with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and ENSO, are discussed. Generally speaking, these characteristics of WWBs can be successfully reproduced by CAM4, owning to the improvement of the deep convection in the model. In CCSM4, significant bias such as the lack of the equatorial Pacific WWBs in boreal spring season and the weak modulation by a strong MJO are found. Our findings confirm the fact that the WWBs are greatly modulated by the surface temperature. It's also suggested that improving the air-sea coupling in CCSM4 may improve model performance in simulating WWBs, and may further improve the predictability of ENSO in the coupled model.

  10. Diurnal atmosphere-ocean signals in Earth's rotation rate and a possible modulation through ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schindelegger, M.; Salstein, D.; Einšpigel, D.; Mayerhofer, C.

    2017-03-01

    Space geodetic determinations of a 6 μs length-of-day (LOD) anomaly at the diurnal S1 frequency are reconciled with excitation estimates from geophysical fluid models. Preference is given to a hybrid excitation scheme that combines atmospheric torques with oceanic angular momentum (OAM) terms from hydrodynamic forward modeling. A joint inversion of all data sets yields an LOD in-phase and quadrature estimate of (5.91, -0.22) μs, matching space geodetic S1 terms well within their formal uncertainties. Non-harmonic LOD excitations, while less than 30% of the time-averaged rotation rate contribution, are conclusively linked to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as the main perturbation of diurnal cycle characteristics in the troposphere. ENSO modulations of particular relevance are those in OAM, associated with the barotropic ocean response to regional modifications in the diurnal atmospheric pressure wave. The study thus highlights previously unexplored aspects of non-tidal mass-field variability in the Earth system.

  11. Investigation of hydrological variability in the Korean Peninsula with the ENSO teleconnections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Yoon

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzes nonlinear behavior links with atmospheric teleconnections between hydrologic variables and climate indices using statistical models during warm season (June to September over the Korean Peninsula (KP. The ocean-related major climate factor, which is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO was used to analyze the atmospheric teleconnections by principal component analysis (PCA and a singular spectrum analysis (SSA. The nonlinear lag time correlations between climate indices and hydrologic variables are calculated by Mutual Information (MI technique. The nonlinear correlation coefficients (CCs by MI were higher than linear CCs, and ENSO shows a few months of lag time correlation. The warm season hydrologic variables in KP shows a significant increasing tendency during the warm pool (WP, and the cold tongue (CT El Niño decaying years shows a significant decreasing tendency, while the La Niña year shows slightly above normal conditions, respectively. A better understanding of the relationship between climate indices and streamflow, and their local impacts can help to prepare for the river discharge management by water managers and scientists. Furthermore, these results provide useful data for policy makers and end-users to support long-range water resources prediction and water-related policy.

  12. Impacts of the Tropical Pacific Cold Tongue Mode on ENSO Diversity Under Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yang; Li, Jianping; Zhang, Wenjun; Chen, Quanliang; Feng, Juan; Zheng, Fei; Wang, Wei; Zhou, Xin

    2017-11-01

    The causes of ENSO diversity, although being of great interest in recent research, do not have a consistent explanation. This study provides a possible mechanism focused on the background change of the tropical Pacific as a response to global warming. The second empirical orthogonal function mode of the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the tropical Pacific, namely the cold tongue mode (CTM), represents the background change of the tropical Pacific under global warming. Using composite analysis with surface observations and subsurface ocean assimilation data sets, we find ENSO spatial structure diversity is closely associated with the CTM. A positive CTM tends to cool the SST in the eastern equatorial Pacific and warm the SST outside, as well as widen (narrow) zonal and meridional scales for El Niño (La Niña), and vice versa. Particularly in the positive CTM phase, the air-sea action center of El Niño moves west, resembling the spatial pattern of CP-El Niño. This westward shift of center is related to the weakened Bjerknes feedback (BF) intensity by the CTM. By suppressing the SSTA growth of El Niño in the eastern equatorial Pacific, the CTM contributes to more frequent occurrence of CP-El Niño under global warming.

  13. Amplification of the ENSO Effects on Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall by Absorbing Aerosols

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Maeng-Ki; Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Sang, Jeong; Kim, Yeon-Hee; Lee, Woo-Seop

    2015-04-01

    In this study, we present observational evidence of the elevated heat pump (EHP) effect and modulation of the ENSO effect on Indian summer monsoon rainfall by absorbing aerosols based on a composite analysis of satellite measurements and MERRA reanalysis data for the period 1979-2011. Results show that in the pre-monsoon season (April to May) rainfall during a La Nina is reduced over the expansive desert region from western Asia, including the Middle East, to northern India and thereby the La Nina effect provides abundant aerosols that are necessary to work the EHP effect in the northern India. Thus, the EHP effect due to abundant absorbing aerosols during a La Nina phase is strongly associated with atmospheric warming, increased moisture transport from the Indian Ocean to the Bay of Bengal, and enhanced pre-monsoon (May-June) rainfall over northern India. As a result, precipitation in May to June in northern India (20-30°N) increases by approximately 20% and 25% due to the pure ENSO (PENSO) and EHP effects, respectively, while precipitation in May and June increased by approximately 30% due to the combined effect. This finding suggests that the EHP effect plays an important role in amplifying the La Nina effect on Indian summer monsoon.

  14. A New Technique to Observe ENSO Activity via Ground-Based GPS Receivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suparta, Wayan; Iskandar, Ahmad; Singh, Mandeep Singh Jit

    In an attempt to study the effects of global climate change in the tropics for improving global climate model, this paper aims to detect the ENSO events, especially El Nino phase by using ground-based GPS receivers. Precipitable water vapor (PWV) obtained from the Global Positioning System (GPS) Meteorology measurements in line with the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTa) are used to connect their response to El Niño activity. The data gathered from four selected stations over the Southeast Asia, namely PIMO (Philippines), KUAL (Malaysia), NTUS (Singapore) and BAKO (Indonesia) for the year of 2009/2010 were processed. A strong correlation was observed for PIMO station with a correlation coefficient of -0.90, significantly at the 99 % confidence level. In general, the relationship between GPS PWV and SSTa at all stations on a weekly basis showed with a negative correlation. The negative correlation indicates that during the El Niño event, the PWV variation was in decreased trend. Decreased trend of PWV value is caused by a dry season that affected the GPS signals in the ocean-atmospheric coupling. Based on these promising results, we can propose that the ground-based GPS receiver is capable used to monitor ENSO activity and this is a new prospective method that previously unexplored.

  15. Enhanced Late Holocene ENSO/PDO expression along the margins of the eastern North Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barron, John A.; Anderson, Lesleigh

    2011-01-01

    Pacific climate is known to have varied during the Holocene, but spatial patterns remain poorly defined. This paper compiles terrestrial and marine proxy data from sites along the northeastern Pacific margins and proposes that they indicate 1) suppressed ENSO conditions during the middle Holocene between ∼8000 and 4000 cal BP with a North Pacific that generally resembled a La Niña-like or more negative PDO phase and 2) a climate transition between ∼4200 and 3000 cal BP that appears to be the teleconnected expression to a more modern-like ENSO Pacific. Compared to modern day conditions, the compiled data suggest that during the middle Holocene, the Aleutian Low was generally weaker during the winter and/or located more to the west, while the North Pacific High was stronger during the summer and located more to the north. Coastal upwelling off California was more enhanced during the summer and fall but suppressed during the spring. Oregon and California sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were cooler. The Santa Barbara Basin had an anomalous record, suggesting warmer SSTs.

  16. Interannual Modulation of Subtropical Atlantic Boreal Summer Dust Variability by ENSO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeFlorio, Mike; Goodwin, Ian D.; Cayan, Dan; Miller, Arthur J.; Ghan, Steven J.; Pierce, David; Russell, Lynn M.; Singh, Balwinder

    2016-01-01

    Dust variability in the climate system has been studied for several decades, yet there remains an incomplete understanding of the dynamical mechanisms controlling interannual and decadal variations in dust transport. The sparseness of multi-year observational datasets has limited our understanding of the relationship between climate variations and atmospheric dust. We use available observations and a century-length fully coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulation to show that the El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exerts a control on North African dust transport during boreal summer. In CESM, this relationship is stronger over the dusty tropical North Atlantic than near Barbados, one of the few sites having a multi-decadal observed record. During strong La Niña summers in CESM, a statistically significant increase in lower tropospheric easterly wind is associated with an increase in North African dust transport over the Atlantic. Barbados dust and Pacific SST variability are only weakly correlated in both observations and CESM, suggesting that other processes are controlling the crossbasin variability of dust. We also use our CESM simulation to show that the relationship between downstream North African dust transport and ENSO fluctuates on multidecadal timescales and may be modulated by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Our findings indicate that existing observations of dust over the tropical North Atlantic are not extensive enough to completely describe the variability of dust and dust transport, and demonstrate the importance of global models to supplement and interpret observational records.

  17. Cold tongue/Warm pool and ENSO dynamics in the Pliocene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. S. von der Heydt

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available It has been suggested that a "permanent" El Niño climate state has existed in the warm Pliocene. One of the main pieces of evidence of such conditions is the small east-west sea surface temperature (SST difference that is found in proxy temperature records of the equatorial Pacific. Using a coupled version of the Zebiak-Cane model of intermediate complexity for the tropical Pacific, we study the sensitivity of the time-mean Pacific background state and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO variability to Pliocene climate changes. The parameters varied in this sensitivity study include changes in the trade wind strength due to a reduced equator-to-pole temperature gradient, higher global mean temperatures and an open Panama gateway. All these changes lead to a westward shift of the position of the cold tongue along the equator by up to 2000 km. This result is consistent with data from the PRISM3D Pliocene SST reconstruction. Our model further suggests that ENSO variability is present in the Pliocene climate with only slight changes as compared to today. A background climate that would resemble a "permanent" El Niño with weak to no east-west temperature difference along the equator is only found for very weak trade winds which seem unrealistic for the Pliocene climate.

  18. Seasonal precipitation reconstruction and teleconnections with ENSO based on tree ring analysis of Pinus cooperi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pompa-García, Marín; Jurado, Enrique

    2014-08-01

    Tendencies of climatic variability indicate that northern Mexico will soon suffer from severe drought. Modeling the influence of climate and ecological processes would help researchers better understand the future implication of climatic variations. Here, we reconstructed historical seasonal precipitation using dendrochronological indices of Pinus cooperi and El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO). Correlation analysis was conducted to establish the precipitation response period; then a reconstruction model using independent variables was constructed using regression procedures. Available data were calibrated and verified to strengthen and validate the modeled reconstruction. Precipitation from the previous winter was best correlated with tree growth. Regression procedures showed that the residual chronology associated in a linear model with El Niño 3.4 explained 47 % of seasonal precipitation variability. This study contributes to a better understanding of historical variations in precipitation and the influence of ENSO in common tree species of northern Mexico to help land managers improve local forest management in a climate change scenario.

  19. The influence of ENSO on an oceanic eddy pair in the South China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Xiaoqing; Dong, Changming; Qi, Yiquan

    2017-03-01

    An eddy pair off the Vietnam coast is one of the most important features of the summertime South China Sea circulation. Its variability is of interest due to its profound impact on regional climate, ecosystems, biological processes, and fisheries. This study examines the influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a basin-scale climatic mode, on the interannual variability of this regional eddy pair using satellite observational data and historical hydrographic measurements. Over the last three decades, the eddy pair strengthened in 1994 and 2002, and weakened in 2006, 2007, and 2008. It was absent in 1988, 1995, 1998, and 2010, coinciding with strong El Nino-to-La Nina transitions. Composite analyses showed that the strong transition events of ENSO led to radical changes in the summer monsoon, through the forcing of a unique sea surface temperature anomaly structure over the tropical Indo-Pacific basin. With weaker zonal wind, a more northward wind direction, and the disappearance of a pair of positive and negative wind stress curls, the eastward current jet turns northward along the Vietnam coast and the eddy pair disappears.

  20. Differential imprints of different ENSO flavors in global patterns of seasonal precipitation extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiedermann, Marc; Siegmund, Jonatan F.; Donges, Jonathan F.; Donner, Reik V.

    2017-04-01

    The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with its positive (El Nino) and negative (La Nina) phases is known to trigger climatic responses in various parts of the Earth, an effect commonly attributed to teleconnectivity. A series of studies has demonstrated that El Nino periods exhibits a relatively broad variety of spatial patterns, which can be classified into two main flavors termed East Pacific (EP, canonical) and Central Pacific (CP, Modoki) El Nino, and that both subtypes can trigger distinct climatic responses like droughts vs. precipitation increases at the regional level. More recently, a similar discrimination of La Nina periods into two different flavors has been reported, and it is reasonable to assume that these different expressions are equally accompanied by differential responses of regional climate variability in particularly affected regions. In this work, we study in great detail the imprints of both types of El Nino and La Nina periods in extremal seasonal precipitation sums during fall (SON), winter (DJF) and spring (MAM) around the peak time of the corresponding ENSO phase. For this purpose, we employ a recently developed objective classification of El Nino and La Nina periods into their two respective flavors based on global teleconnectivity patterns in daily surface air temperature anomalies as captured by the associated climate network representations (Wiedermann et al., 2016). In order to study the statistical relevance of the timing of different El Nino and La Nina types on that of seasonal precipitation extremes around the globe (according to the GPCC data set as a reference), we utilize event coincidence analysis (Donges et al., 2016), a new powerful yet conceptually simple and intuitive statistical tool that allows quantifying the degree of simultaneity of distinct events in pairs of time series. Our results provide a comprehensive overview on ENSO related imprints in regional seasonal precipitation extremes. We demonstrate that key

  1. Mechanisms of the global electric circuit and lightning variability on the ENSO time scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mareev, Evgeny; Volodin, Evgeny; Slyunyaev, Nikolay

    2017-04-01

    Many studies of lightning activity on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) time scale show increased activity over tropical land areas during the warm El Niño phase (e.g., Satori et al., 2009; Price, 2009). The mechanisms of this variability—particularly in terms of its role in the global electric circuit (GEC)—are still under debate (e.g., Williams and Mareev, 2014). In this study a general circulation model of the atmosphere and ocean INMCM4.0 (Institute of Numerical Mathematics Coupled Model) is used for modelling the GEC variability on the ENSO time scale. The ionospheric potential (IP) and the lightning flash rate are calculated to study regional peculiarities and possible mechanisms of lightning variation. The IP parameterisation is used (Mareev and Volodin, 2014) which takes into account quasi-stationary currents of electrified clouds (including thunderstorms) as principal contributors into the DC global circuit. The account of conductivity variation in the IP parameterisation is suggested based on the approach realised in (Slyunyaev et al., 2014). Comparison of simulation results with the observational data on lightning activity on the ENSO time scale is discussed. Numerical simulations suggest that the inter-annual IP variability is low and does not exceed 1% of the mean value, being tightly correlated with the mean sea surface temperature (SST) in the Pacific Ocean (180W-100W, 5S-5N—El Niño area). The IP maximum corresponds to the SST minimum. This result can be explained taking into account that during El Niño (positive temperature anomaly) precipitations in the equatorial part of the Pacific increase while in other tropic zones including the land areas they decrease. Comparison of simulation results with the observational data on lightning activity on the ENSO time scale is discussed. During the El Niño period in the model, the mean aerosol content in the atmosphere decrease, which is caused by the weakening of the winds over Sahara and

  2. Reconstructing El Niño Southern Oscillation using data from ships' logbooks, 1815-1854. Part II: Comparisons with existing ENSO reconstructions and implications for reconstructing ENSO diversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrett, Hannah G.; Jones, Julie M.; Bigg, Grant R.

    2017-07-01

    A systematic comparison of El Niño Southern Oscillation reconstructions during the early to mid-nineteenth century is presented using a range of proxy and documentary sources. Reconstructions of the boreal winter Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) using data from ships' logbooks presented in a companion paper are evaluated and compared to previous ENSO reconstructions. Comparisons between ENSO reconstructions and the instrumental SOI during a period of overlap (1876-1977) are made. These same proxy and documentary reconstructions are then compared to the logbook-based reconstructions, over 1815-1854. The logbook-based reconstructions compare best with a recent multi-proxy reconstruction that used signals taken from different teleconnection regions, and they have an improved agreement with multi-proxy records compared to a previous attempt to reconstruct the SOI from ships' logbook data. The logbook-based and the multi-proxy reconstructions are found to capture El Niño events better than La Niña events, and East Pacific El Niño events better than Central Pacific El Niño events, thus suggesting a degree of bias in the historical reconstructions. These findings have important implications for future ENSO reconstructions, with a need for an increased understanding of the effects of different ENSO flavours for future reconstructions.

  3. Possible influence of the ENSO phenomenon on the pathoecology of diphyllobothriasis and anisakiasis in ancient Chinchorro populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernardo T Arriaza

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Current clinical data show a clear relationship between the zoonosis rates of Diphyllobothrium pacificum and Anisakis caused by the El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO phenomenon along the Chilean coast. These parasites are endemic to the region and have a specific habitat distribution. D. pacificum prefers the warmer waters in the northern coast, while Anisakis prefers the colder waters of Southern Chile. The ENSO phenomenon causes a drastic inversion in the seawater temperatures in this region, modifying both the cool nutrient-rich seawater and the local ecology. This causes a latitudinal shift in marine parasite distribution and prevalence, as well as drastic environmental changes. The abundance of human mummies and archaeological coastal sites in the Atacama Desert provides an excellent model to test the ENSO impact on antiquity. We review the clinical and archaeological literature debating to what extent these parasites affected the health of the Chinchorros, the earliest settlers of this region. We hypothesise the Chinchorro and their descendants were affected by this natural and cyclical ENSO phenomenon and should therefore present fluctuating rates of D. pacificum and Anisakis infestations.

  4. El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) enhances CO2 exchange rates in freshwater marsh ecosystems in the Florida Everglades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparkle L. Malone; Christina L. Staudhammer; Steven F. Oberbauer; Paulo Olivas; Michael G. Ryan; Jessica L. Schedlbauer; Henry W. Loescher; Gregory Starr

    2014-01-01

    This research examines the relationships between El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), water level, precipitation patterns and carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange rates in the freshwater wetland ecosystems of the Florida Everglades. Data was obtained over a 5-year study period (2009–2013) from two freshwater marsh sites located in Everglades National Park that differ...

  5. The Response of Lower Atmospheric Ozone to ENSO in Aura Measurements and a Chemistry-Climate Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oman, L. D.; Douglass, A. R.; Ziemke, J. R.; Rodriquez, J. M.; Waugh, D. W.; Nielsen, J. E.

    2012-01-01

    The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of tropical variability on interannual time scales. ENSO appears to extend its influence into the chemical composition of the tropical troposphere. Recent work has revealed an ENSO-induced wave-1 anomaly in observed tropical tropospheric column ozone. This results in a dipole over the western and eastern tropical Pacific, whereby differencing the two regions produces an ozone anomaly with an extremely high correlation to the Nino 3.4 Index. We have successfully reproduced this feature using the Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 (GEOS-5) general circulation model coupled to a comprehensive stratospheric and tropospheric chemical mechanism forced with observed sea surface temperatures over the past 25 years. An examination of the modeled ozone field reveals the vertical contributions of tropospheric ozone to the column over the western and eastern Pacific region. We will show composition sensitivity in observations from NASA s Aura satellite Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the Tropospheric Emissions Spectrometer (TES) and a simulation to provide insight into the vertical structure of these ENSO-induced ozone changes. The ozone changes due to the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) in the extra-polar upper troposphere and lower stratosphere in MLS measurements will also be discussed.

  6. A Statistical Model of Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the Western North Pacific with ENSO-Dependent Cyclogenesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yonekura, Emmi; Hall, Timothy M.

    2011-01-01

    A new statistical model for western North Pacific Ocean tropical cyclone genesis and tracks is developed and applied to estimate regionally resolved tropical cyclone landfall rates along the coasts of the Asian mainland, Japan, and the Philippines. The model is constructed on International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) 1945-2007 historical data for the western North Pacific. The model is evaluated in several ways, including comparing the stochastic spread in simulated landfall rates with historic landfall rates. Although certain biases have been detected, overall the model performs well on the diagnostic tests, for example, reproducing well the geographic distribution of landfall rates. Western North Pacific cyclogenesis is influenced by El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This dependence is incorporated in the model s genesis component to project the ENSO-genesis dependence onto landfall rates. There is a pronounced shift southeastward in cyclogenesis and a small but significant reduction in basinwide annual counts with increasing ENSO index value. On almost all regions of coast, landfall rates are significantly higher in a negative ENSO state (La Nina).

  7. Sea surface salinity variability during the Indian Ocean Dipole and ENSO events in the tropical Indian Ocean

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Grunseich, G.; Subrahmanyam, B.; Murty, V.S.N.; Giese, B.S.

    extent, during negative IOD events. A dipole mode index for salinity (DMIS) based on SSS data and a new index based on the average of salinity in a region off the coast of Sumatra are introduced to monitor SSS variability during IOD and ENSO events...

  8. Testing Four Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation Method Using an Improved Intermediate Coupled Model for ENSO Analysis and Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, C.; Zhang, R. H.

    2016-12-01

    A four dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation method is implemented in an improved intermediate coupled model (ICM) of the tropical Pacific. The ICM has ten baroclinic modes in the vertical, with horizonatally varying stratification taken into account; two empirical submodels are constructed from historical data, one for the subsurface entrainment temperature in the surface mixed layer (Te) in terms of sea level (SL) anomalies and another for the wind stress (τ) in terms of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. A twin experiment is established to evaluate the impact of the 4D-Var data assimilation algorithm on the El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) analysis and prediction. The model error is assumed to arise only from the parameter uncertainty. The "observation" of sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly is sampled from the "truth" model that takes default parameter values and added by a Gaussian noise, is directly assimilated into the assimilation model with its parameters being set erroneously. Results show that the 4D-Var effectively reduces the error of ENSO analysis and therefore improves the prediction skill of ENSO events at 12-month lead time compared with the non-assimilation case. These provide a promising way for the ICM in its better real-time ENSO prediction.

  9. Impacts of forest to urban land conversion and ENSO phase on water quality of a public water supply reservoir

    Science.gov (United States)

    We used coupled watershed and reservoir models to evaluate the impacts of deforestation and ENSO phase on drinking water quality. Source water total organic carbon (TOC) is especially important due to the potential for production of carcinogenic disinfection byproducts (DBPs). The Environmental Flui...

  10. QBO-ENSO Connections and Influence on the Tropical Cold Point Tropopause

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geller, M. A.; Yuan, W.

    2011-12-01

    We have used both high vertical-resolution and conventional radiosonde data to investigate two aspects of the quasi-biennial oscillation in the equatorial lower stratosphere. Taguchi (2010) used monthly mean wind information from three radiosonde stations in the Western Pacific region to show that QBO periods are generally shorter during El Nino than during La Nina conditions and that QBO amplitudes are generally greater during La Nina conditions. We show that these results are valid for all longitudes in equatorial regions. We also show that QBO modulations of the cold-point-tropopause, on the average, are greater during La Nina conditions, although this result is variable for different stations at different latitudes and longitudes. We believe that this variability is likely due to local influences of convection significantly affecting the cold-point tropopause. Our strategy for investigating both of these aspects of ENSO influences on the QBO was to show that spline-fitting of conventional radiosonde observations gave similar results for both ENSO and QBO variations of winds and temperatures to those derived using high vertical-resolution radiosonde data over a nine year period (as suggested by the results of Bell and Geller, 2008), but that this was too short a period to properly separate ENSO from QBO effects. Given that these similar results were obtained using spline-fits to conventional radiosonde data to those obtained using high vertical-resolution radiosonde data, we then analyzed much longer time series of conventional radiosonde data for several stations, where such data were available over several decades. References Bell, S. W., and M. A. Geller (2008), Tropopause inversion layer: Seasonal and latitudinal variations and representation in standard radiosonde data and global models, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D05109, doi:10.1029/2007JD009022. Taguchi, M. (2010), Observed connection of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation with El Ni

  11. The Influence of Arctic Oscillation and ENSO on Snow Cover Days on Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Tiangui; Wang, Chao; Jia, Lha; Du, Jun; Chen, Qianwen

    2017-04-01

    Based on Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau Snow data, index of NINO sea temperature anomaly, and AO index. The influence from Arctic Oscillation and ENSO to days of snow cover in plateau was studied, and the main conclusions are as follows: 1. Both AO index and NINO index are positively correlated with days of snow cover in plateau, and the correlation coefficients are 0.59, 0.41 respectively (both passed the significant test at0.01 level). There is a positively correlation between NINO index and western plateau, and passed the significant test. But to the eastern plateau, it is uncorrelated. 2. The average of snow cover days in whole plateau is 8.79 d, during 1964-2013. The maximum value of snow cover days is 41.38 d in Nielamu, and the minimum lesser than 1 d in Haiyan. When the AO at positive anomaly, the snow cover days is higher, and the maximum value up to 48.8d at Jiani. At in negative anomaly of AO, the snow cover day is lower. There is a positively correlation between AO and snow cover days. 3. When the AO at positive anomaly with El Nino, the maximum value of snow cover days up to 54.25 d. Influence of AO and El Nino, the snow cover days is higher. When the AO at positive anomaly with La Nina, the maximum value of snow cover days is 46.3 d, and it is lower than the maximum value which is under AO at positive anomaly period. When the AO at negative anomaly whit El Nino, the value range of snow cover days is 0.007-42.86 d. Due to the Influence of El Nino, the value snow cover days is higher, but with smaller region. When the AO at negative anomaly whit La Nina, the snow cover days is lower in whole plateau. the snow cover days was directly affected by AO and ENSO, and the first is more effective than the latter. Key words: AO; ENSO; Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau; snow cover days Acknowledgements This study was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China Fund Project (91337215, 41575066), National Key Basic Research Program (2013CB733206), Special Fund for

  12. Linking ENSO and heavy rainfall events over coastal British Columbia through a weather pattern classification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Brigode

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Classifications of atmospheric weather patterns (WPs are widely used for the description of the climate of a given region and are employed for many applications, such as weather forecasting, downscaling of global circulation model outputs and reconstruction of past climates. WP classifications were recently used to improve the statistical characterisation of heavy rainfall. In this context, bottom-up approaches, combining spatial distribution of heavy rainfall observations and geopotential height fields have been used to define WP classifications relevant for heavy rainfall statistical analysis. The definition of WPs at the synoptic scale creates an interesting variable which could be used as a link between the global scale of climate signals and the local scale of precipitation station measurements. We introduce here a new WP classification centred on the British Columbia (BC coastal region (Canada and based on a bottom-up approach. Five contrasted WPs composed this classification, four rainy WPs and one non-rainy WP, the anticyclonic pattern. The four rainy WPs are mainly observed in the winter months (October to March, which is the period of heavy precipitation events in coastal BC and is thus consistent with the local climatology. The combination of this WP classification with the seasonal description of rainfall is shown to be useful for splitting observed precipitation series into more homogeneous sub-samples (i.e. sub-samples constituted by days having similar atmospheric circulation patterns and thus identifying, for each station, the synoptic situations that generate the highest hazard in terms of heavy rainfall events. El Niño-Southern Oscillations (ENSO significantly influence the frequency of occurrence of two coastal BC WPs. Within each WP, ENSO seem to influence only the frequency of rainy events and not the magnitudes of heavy rainfall events. Consequently, heavy rainfall estimations do not show significant evolution of heavy

  13. The climatology and interannual variability of the South Asia high and its relationship with ENSO in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Xu; Chen, Wen; Chen, Shangfeng

    2017-06-01

    The present study examines climatology and interannual variability of South Asian high (SAH) and its connection with the ENSO based on 38 coupled models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Results show that multi-model ensemble (MME) can reasonably capture the climatological spatial pattern of the SAH, although its intensity is slightly underestimated. The CCSM4, CESM1-BGC and CESM1-FASTCHEM can well simulate the climatological location and intensity of the SAH. The interannual variability of the SAH is investigated by calculating ratio of the standard deviation of the ten parameters in models with those in observations. The results indicate that the MME can reasonably capture magnitudes of the interannual variability of the area index, intensity index, and longitude of the SAH center. Quasi-4-year period of the SAH intensity index can be well simulated by CMCC-CESM, CMCC-CMS and GFDL-ESM2G, and quasi-5-year period of north-south movement index can be captured by CanCM4, CESM1-CAM5, CESM1-FASTCHEM, CNRM-CM5-2, GFDL-ESM2G and HadCM3. Furthermore, MME can reasonably reproduce seasonal evolution of intensity and location of the SAH except for its east-west movement. The ENSO-SAH relationship is further evaluated. It is found that about two-thirds of the CMIP5 models can capture the observed ENSO-SAH relationship, although the relationship is distinctly exaggerated by several models. The success of these models is attributed to the reasonable simulation of both the "charge" process over the tropical Indian Ocean induced by the ENSO-related anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical eastern Pacific (TEP) and longitude extension of the western boundary of the ENSO-related anomalous SST over the TEP.

  14. The Defining Characteristics of ENSO Extremes and the Strong 2015/2016 El Niño

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santoso, Agus; Mcphaden, Michael J.; Cai, Wenju

    2017-12-01

    The year 2015 was special for climate scientists, particularly for the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) research community, as a major El Niño finally materialized after a long pause since the 1997/1998 extreme El Niño. It was scientifically exciting since, due to the short observational record, our knowledge of an extreme El Niño has been based only on the 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 events. The 2015/2016 El Niño was marked by many environmental disasters that are consistent with what is expected for an extreme El Niño. Considering the dramatic impacts of extreme El Niño, and the risk of a potential increase in frequency of ENSO extremes under greenhouse warming, it is timely to evaluate how the recent event fits into our understanding of ENSO extremes. Here we provide a review of ENSO, its nature and dynamics, and through analysis of various observed key variables, we outline the processes that characterize its extremes. The 2015/2016 El Niño brings a useful perspective into the state of understanding of these events and highlights areas for future research. While the 2015/2016 El Niño is characteristically distinct from the 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 events, it still can be considered as the first extreme El Niño of the 21st century. Its extremity can be attributed in part to unusually warm condition in 2014 and to long-term background warming. In effect, this study provides a list of physically meaningful indices that are straightforward to compute for identifying and tracking extreme ENSO events in observations and climate models.

  15. Late-Holocene vegetation and climate change in Jeju Island, Korea and its implications for ENSO influences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jungjae; Shin, Young Ho; Byrne, Roger

    2016-12-01

    Several recent studies suggest the hypothesis that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important factor controlling the Holocene East Asian Monsoon (EAM). However, the mechanism underlying this influence remains unclear due to the lack of high-resolution paleoclimate records from the coast of East Asia. Here, we provide a new record of late Holocene climate change in coastal East Asia based on multi-proxy evidence (pollen, organic content, magnetic susceptibility, grain size) obtained from a sediment core from Jeju Island, South Korea. As Jeju Island is strongly influenced by the Kuroshio flow, our sediment proxy records contain ENSO signals from the tropical Pacific. The study area was affected by dry/cool conditions in the western tropical Pacific (WTP) between 4350 and 1920 cal yr BP when El Niños were frequent, and by rapid warming/wetting and forestation since 1920 cal yr BP when La Niñas were more common. Jeju Island was relatively dry/cool between 2100 and 1600, 1300-1200, 1100-1000, 800-650, and 300-50 cal yr BP, as opposed to the Galápagos Islands, which were relatively wet/warm, reflecting the ENSO-related negative correlation between eastern and western margins of Pacific. Wet conditions may have prevailed during the early Little Ice Age (LIA) (620-280 cal yr BP) despite consistent cooling. This period of high precipitation may have been associated with the increased landfall of typhoons and with warmer Kuroshio currents under La Niña-like conditions. According to our results, EAM on the East Asian coastal margin was predominantly driven by ENSO activity, rather than by the precession effect. Paleoclimatic data from Jeju Island, with its insular position and closeness to warm Kuroshio currents, provide clear evidence of these ENSO influences.

  16. Reconstructing thermocline hydrography using planktonic foraminiferal Mg/Ca: Implications for paleo-ENSO during the Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, A. O.; Marchitto, T. M.

    2010-12-01

    Interannual variations in thermocline hydrography of the eastern tropical Pacific are today dominated by the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Mixed layer thickness, thermocline depth, and sea surface temperatures all decrease under La Niña conditions. Changes in these parameters are responsible for oceanographic and climate anomalies that have far reaching effects. Understanding how water column stratification of the eastern tropical Pacific has changed over time can lend insight into the past dynamics of ENSO, yet this is a poorly constrained area of study. We present a record of upper water column stratification history during the Holocene, using core PC14 from the Soledad Basin, Baja California (25.2N, 112.7W). We use Mg/Ca differences between G. bulloides, N. dutertrei and N. pachyderma (d.) to reconstruct changes in the vertical stratification. G. bulloides reflects the upper most surface conditions during peak spring upwelling. N. dutertrei prefers an intermediate depth following a limited temperature range near the bottom of the mixed layer, and N. pachyderma (d.) favors conditions near the bottom of the thermocline consistent with previous studies that it follows the Deep Chlorophyll Maximum (DCM). We apply this multi-species approach to test the hypothesis, based on G. bulloides Mg/Ca, that the early to middle Holocene was (1) more La Niña-like than today, and (2) characterized by millennial-scale oscillations in ENSO mean state. Understanding the behavior of ENSO over long timescales can provide a path to evaluating the potential of orbital and solar forcing of ENSO dynamics.

  17. A real-time ocean reanalyses intercomparison project in the context of tropical pacific observing system and ENSO monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Yan; Wen, C.; Kumar, A.; Balmaseda, M.; Fujii, Y.; Alves, O.; Martin, M.; Yang, X.; Vernieres, G.; Desportes, C.; Lee, T.; Ascione, I.; Gudgel, R.; Ishikawa, I.

    2017-12-01

    An ensemble of nine operational ocean reanalyses (ORAs) is now routinely collected, and is used to monitor the consistency across the tropical Pacific temperature analyses in real-time in support of ENSO monitoring, diagnostics, and prediction. The ensemble approach allows a more reliable estimate of the signal as well as an estimation of the noise among analyses. The real-time estimation of signal-to-noise ratio assists the prediction of ENSO. The ensemble approach also enables us to estimate the impact of the Tropical Pacific Observing System (TPOS) on the estimation of ENSO-related oceanic indicators. The ensemble mean is shown to have a better accuracy than individual ORAs, suggesting the ensemble approach is an effective tool to reduce uncertainties in temperature analysis for ENSO. The ensemble spread, as a measure of uncertainties in ORAs, is shown to be partially linked to the data counts of in situ observations. Despite the constraints by TPOS data, uncertainties in ORAs are still large in the northwestern tropical Pacific, in the SPCZ region, as well as in the central and northeastern tropical Pacific. The uncertainties in total temperature reduced significantly in 2015 due to the recovery of the TAO/TRITON array to approach the value before the TAO crisis in 2012. However, the uncertainties in anomalous temperature remained much higher than the pre-2012 value, probably due to uncertainties in the reference climatology. This highlights the importance of the long-term stability of the observing system for anomaly monitoring. The current data assimilation systems tend to constrain the solution very locally near the buoy sites, potentially damaging the larger-scale dynamical consistency. So there is an urgent need to improve data assimilation systems so that they can optimize the observation information from TPOS and contribute to improved ENSO prediction.

  18. Evidences linking ENSO and coral growth in the Southwestern-South Atlantic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Evangelista, H. [LARAMG, Laboratorio de Radioecologia e Mudancas Globais/DBB/UERJ. Pav. HLC, Subsolo, Maracana, RJ (Brazil); Godiva, D. [LARAMG, Laboratorio de Radioecologia e Mudancas Globais/DBB/UERJ. Pav. HLC, Subsolo, Maracana, RJ (Brazil); Universidade Federal Fluminense, Outeiro Sao Joao Batista, s/n, Centro, Departamento de Geoquimica Ambiental, Niteroi, RJ (Brazil); Sifeddine, A. [IRD, Institut de Recherche Pour le Developpement, UR055 Paleotropique, Bondy (France); Universidade Federal Fluminense, Outeiro Sao Joao Batista, s/n, Centro, Departamento de Geoquimica Ambiental, Niteroi, RJ (Brazil); Leao, Z.M.A.N.; Kikuchi, R.K.P. [UFBA/Instituto de Geociencias. Rua Barao de Geremoabo, s/n, Federacao, Salvador, BA (Brazil); Rigozo, N.R. [LARAMG, Laboratorio de Radioecologia e Mudancas Globais/DBB/UERJ. Pav. HLC, Subsolo, Maracana, RJ (Brazil); FAETEC, Faculdade de Educacao e Tecnologia Thereza Porto Marques, Jacarei, SP (Brazil); Segal, B. [UFRJ/Museu Nacional/Setor de Celenterologia/Departamento de Invertebrados, Quinta da Boa Vista s/n, Sao Cristovao, RJ (Brazil); Ambrizzi, T. [USP/Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Kampel, M. [INPE/Divisao de Sensoriamento Remoto, Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Cornec, F. le [Universidade Federal Fluminense, Outeiro Sao Joao Batista, s/n, Centro, Departamento de Geoquimica Ambiental, Niteroi, RJ (Brazil)

    2007-12-15

    Physical and biological changes in the marine environment, induced by oceanic-atmospheric processes, can be imprinted in massive coral skeletons. Herein, we present an evidence of potential El Nino impacts at the Southwestern South Atlantic Ocean (SWSA) inferred from the sclerochronology of the reef coral Favia leptophylla. The application of spectral analysis (wavelet decomposition and the iterative regression) to coral growth length and to meteorological-oceanographic parameters (air temperature, sea surface temperature and precipitation) as well as to Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and solar irradiation indicated a major significant inverse relationship between SOI and coral growth length at the 4-8 years frequency band. We propose here that coral growth length from the SWSA could be affected by El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events through an ''atmospheric bridge'', in contrast to its direct effect at the Pacific Ocean, related to the increase in sea surface temperature. (orig.)

  19. The influence of ENSO, PDO and PNA on secular rainfall variations in Hawai`i

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frazier, Abby G.; Elison Timm, Oliver; Giambelluca, Thomas W.; Diaz, Henry F.

    2017-11-01

    Over the last century, significant declines in rainfall across the state of Hawai`i have been observed, and it is unknown whether these declines are due to natural variations in climate, or manifestations of human-induced climate change. Here, a statistical analysis of the observed rainfall variability was applied as first step towards better understanding causes for these long-term trends. Gridded seasonal rainfall from 1920 to 2012 is used to perform an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The leading EOF components are correlated with three indices of natural climate variations (El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Pacific North American (PNA)), and multiple linear regression (MLR) is used to model the leading components with climate indices. PNA is the dominant mode of wet season (November-April) variability, while ENSO is most significant in the dry season (May-October). To assess whether there is an anthropogenic influence on rainfall, two methods are used: a linear trend term is included in the MLR, and pattern correlation coefficients (PCC) are calculated between recent rainfall trends and future changes in rainfall projected by downscaling methods. PCC results indicate that recent observed rainfall trends in the wet season are positively correlated with future expected changes in rainfall, while dry season PCC results do not show a clear pattern. The MLR results, however, show that the trend term adds significantly to model skill only in the dry season. Overall, MLR and PCC results give weak and inconclusive evidence for detection of anthropogenic signals in the observed rainfall trends.

  20. ENSO/PDO-Like Variability of Tropical Ocean Surface Energy Fluxes Over the Satellite Era

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, F. R.; Miller, Tim L.

    2008-01-01

    Recent variations of tropical climate on interannual to near-decadal scales have provided a useful target for studying the nature of climate feedback processes. A strong warm / cold ENSO couplet (e.g. 1997-2000) along with several subsequent weaker events are prominent interannual signals that are part of an apparent longer term strengthening of the Walker circulation during the mid to late 1990's with some weakening thereafter. Decadal scale changes in tropical SST structure during the 1990s are accompanied by focusing of precipitation over the Indo-Pacific warm pool and an increase in tropical ocean evaporation of order 1.0 % /decade. Associated with ENSO and PDO-like tropical SST changes are surface freshwater and radiative fluxes which have important implications for heat and energy transport variations. In this study we examine how surface fluxes attending interannual to decadal SST fluctuations, e.g. precipitation (GPCP, TRMM), turbulent fluxes (OAFlux), and radiative fluxes (ERBE/CERES, SRB) are coupled. Using these data we analyze vertically-integrated divergence of moist static energy, divMSE, and its dry static energy and latent energy components. We examine consistency between these data sets and explore relationships between SST variations, flux changes and modulation of tropical Walker and Hadley circulations. Strong signatures ofMSE flux transport linking ascending and descending regions of tropical circulations are found. Relative strengths of these fluxes and transports are interpreted as a measure of efficiency in the overall process of tropical heat balance during episodes of warm or cold tropical SST.

  1. How Well Do Global Climate Models Simulate the Variability of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Associated with ENSO?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hui; Long, Lindsey; Kumar, Arun; Wang, Wanqiu; Schemm, Jae-Kyung E.; Zhao, Ming; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; LaRow, Timorhy E.; Lim, Young-Kwon; Schubert, Siegfried D.; hide

    2013-01-01

    The variability of Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in model simulations is assessed and compared with observations. The model experiments are 28-yr simulations forced with the observed sea surface temperature from 1982 to 2009. The simulations were coordinated by the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group and conducted with five global climate models (GCMs) with a total of 16 ensemble members. The model performance is evaluated based on both individual model ensemble means and multi-model ensemble mean. The latter has the highest anomaly correlation (0.86) for the interannual variability of TCs. Previous observational studies show a strong association between ENSO and Atlantic TC activity, as well as distinctions in the TC activities during eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Nino events. The analysis of track density and TC origin indicates that each model has different mean biases. Overall, the GCMs simulate the variability of Atlantic TCs well with weaker activity during EP El Nino and stronger activity during La Nina. For CP El Nino, there is a slight increase in the number of TCs as compared with EP El Nino. However, the spatial distribution of track density and TC origin is less consistent among the models. Particularly, there is no indication of increasing TC activity over the U.S. southeast coastal region as in observations. The difference between the models and observations is likely due to the bias of vertical wind shear in response to the shift of tropical heating associated with CP El Nino, as well as the model bias in the mean circulation.

  2. Empirical modelling of ENSO dynamics: construction of optimal complexity models from data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukhina, A.; Kondrashov, D.; Mukhin, D.

    2012-04-01

    One of the main problems arising in modelling of data taken from natural system is finding of a phase space suitable for construction of the evolution operator model. The matter is we ususaly deal with strongly high-dimensional behavior and we are forced to construct a model working in some projection of system phase space corresponding to time scales of interest. Selection of optimal projecion is non-trivial problem since there are many ways to reconstruct phase variables from given time series, especially in the case when time series has a form of spatial field depending on time. Actually, it is sort of model selection problem, because, on the one hand, the transformation of data to some phase variables vector can be considered as a part of the model. On the other hand, such an optimization of a phase space makes sense only in relation to the parameterization of the model we use, i.e. representation of evolution operator, so we should find an optimal structure of the model togerther with phase variables vector. In this work we suggest Bayesian approach to this problem: a prior set of the models of different complexity is defined, then posterior probabilities of each model from this set given the data are calculated, and the model corresponding to largest probability is selected. The suggested approach is applied to optimization of EMR-model of ENSO phenomenon elaborated by Kondrashov et. al. This model operates with number of principal EOFs constructed from spatial field of SST in Equatorial Pacific, and has a form of stochastic differential equations (SDE) system with polynomial parameterization of the right-hand part. Optimal values for both the number of EOFs and the order of SDE system are estimated from the time series generated by Jin & Neelin intermediate ENSO model.

  3. A study of response of thermocline in the South China Sea to ENSO events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Hanbang; Pan, Aijun; Zheng, Quan'an; Hu, Jianyu

    2017-10-01

    This paper investigates the response of the thermocline depth (TD) in the South China Sea (SCS) to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events using 51-year (from 1960 to 2010) monthly seawater temperature and surface wind stress data acquired from the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA), together with heat flux data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), precipitation data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and evaporation data from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI). It is indicated that the response of the SCS TD to the El Niño or La Niña events is in opposite phase. On one hand, the spatial-averaged TDs in the SCS (deeper than 200 m) appear as negative and positive anomalies during the mature phase of the El Niño and La Niña events, respectively. On the other hand, from June of the El Niño year to the subsequent April, the spatial patterns of TD in the north and south of 12°N appear as negative and positive anomalies, respectively, but present positive and negative anomalies for the La Niña case. However, positive and negative TD anomalies occur almost in the entire SCS in May of the subsequent year of the El Niño and La Niña events, respectively. It is suggested that the response of the TD in the SCS to the ENSO events is mainly caused by the sea surface buoyancy flux and the wind stress curl.

  4. Different types of drifts in two seasonal forecast systems and their dependence on ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hermanson, L.; Ren, H.-L.; Vellinga, M.; Dunstone, N. D.; Hyder, P.; Ineson, S.; Scaife, A. A.; Smith, D. M.; Thompson, V.; Tian, B.; Williams, K. D.

    2017-11-01

    Seasonal forecasts using coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models are increasingly employed to provide regional climate predictions. For the quality of forecasts to improve, regional biases in climate models must be diagnosed and reduced. The evolution of biases as initialized forecasts drift away from the observations is poorly understood, making it difficult to diagnose the causes of climate model biases. This study uses two seasonal forecast systems to examine drifts in sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation, and compares them to the long-term bias in the free-running version of each model. Drifts are considered from daily to multi-annual time scales. We define three types of drift according to their relation with the long-term bias in the free-running model: asymptoting, overshooting and inverse drift. We find that precipitation almost always has an asymptoting drift. SST drifts on the other hand, vary between forecasting systems, where one often overshoots and the other often has an inverse drift. We find that some drifts evolve too slowly to have an impact on seasonal forecasts, even though they are important for climate projections. The bias found over the first few days can be very different from that in the free-running model, so although daily weather predictions can sometimes provide useful information on the causes of climate biases, this is not always the case. We also find that the magnitude of equatorial SST drifts, both in the Pacific and other ocean basins, depends on the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase. Averaging over all hindcast years can therefore hide the details of ENSO state dependent drifts and obscure the underlying physical causes. Our results highlight the need to consider biases across a range of timescales in order to understand their causes and develop improved climate models.

  5. Synchronizaton and causality across time-scales of observed and modelled ENSO dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jajcay, Nikola; Kravtsov, Sergey; Tsonis, Anastasios A.; Paluš, Milan

    2016-04-01

    Phase-phase and phase-amplitude interactions between dynamics on different temporal scales has been observed in ENSO dynamics, captured by the NINO3.4 index, using the approach for identification of cross-scale interactions introduced recently by Paluš [1]. The most pronounced interactions across scales are phase coherence and phase-phase causality in which the annual cycle influences the dynamics on the quasibiennial scale. The phase of slower phenomena on the scale 4-6 years influences not only the combination frequencies around the period one year, but also the phase of the annual cycle and also the amplitude of the oscillations in the quasibiennial range. In order to understand these nonlinear phenomena we investigate cross-scale interactions in synthetic, modelled NINO3.4 time series. The models taken into account were a selection of 96 historic runs from CMIP5 project, and two low-dimensional models - parametric recharge oscillator (PRO) [2], which is a two-dimensional dynamical model and a data-driven model based on the idea of linear inverse models [3]. The latter is a statistical model, in our setting 25-dimensional. While the two dimensions of the PRO model are not enough to capture all the cross-scale interactions, the results from the data-driven model are more promising and they resemble the interactions found in NINO3.4 measured data set. We believe that combination of models of different complexity will help to uncover mechanisms of the cross-scale interactions which might be the key for better understanding of the irregularities in the ENSO dynamics. This study is supported by the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic within the Program KONTAKT II, Project No. LH14001. [1] M. Palus, Phys. Rev. Let. 112 078702 (2014) [2] K. Stein et al., J. Climate, 27, 14 (2014) [3] Kondrashov et al., J. Climate, 18, 21 (2005)

  6. Weather types across the Maritime Continent: From the diurnal cycle to interannual variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, A. W.; Moron, V.; Qian, J. H.; Ghil, M.

    2014-12-01

    Multi-scale interactions over the Maritime Continent (MC) may cause island-scale seasonal rainfall anomaly dipoles during the rainy season in association with ENSO: El Niño events are found to accompany increased frequency of a quiescent large-scale daily circulation type. These large-scale quiescent conditions in turn allow stronger island-scale diurnal land-sea breeze circulations to develop; the latter result in more rainfall over the mountainous regions of Java and increased subsidence over the coastal plains. A similar phenomenon occurs over Borneo, where rainfall is enhanced in the coastal regions, in which sea breezes head against off-shore synoptic-scale low-level winds. This contribution builds on our previous work to consider the impacts of both the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and ENSO, in addition to the seasonal cycle, on daily weather types (WTs); here WTs are identified using cluster analysis over the MC, throughout the entire austral summer season. We investigate how strongly ENSO and MJO control WT frequency versus their modifying the circulation patterns of the WTs; both will modify air-sea interactions through changes in surface fluxes. Robust control of WT frequency is found, with the seasonal cycle being the strongest of the three effects, ENSO the intermediate one, and the MJO being least important. In terms of circulation patterns, ENSO is found to modify the circulation patterns themselves to some extent while the MJO does not. We argue that these findings have important implications for sub-seasonal to seasonal predictability at local scales: predicting the changes in frequency of occurrence for a small number of weather types is potentially more tractable than the full, much higher-dimensional prediction problem. They may also allow a better understanding of air-sea interactions involving modulations of wind-driven surface fluxes associated with the seasonal cycle, ENSO and the MJO.

  7. Pressure fluctuations on the bed of surge tank at the H.P. Zimapan, Hgo., with different arrangements studied on hydraulic model, with the lowest operation conditions; Fluctuaciones de presion en la base del pozo de oscilacion del P.H. Zimapan Hgo., con diferentes arreglos estudiados en modelo hidraulico ante las condiciones minimas de operacion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marengo Mogollon, H. [Facultad de Ingenieria, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico (Mexico)]. E-mail: humberto.marengo@cfe.gob.mx; Ochoa Alvarez, F.J.; Cortes Cortes, C. [Comision Federal de Electricidad (Mexico)]. E-mail: federico.ochoa@cfe.gob.mx; carlos.cortes01@cfe.gob.mx

    2009-10-15

    In this paper, the pressure fluctuations of the surge tank in the Zimapan Hydroelectric Project are compared in a hydraulic model. The shaft is located lateral, over the conduction tunnel and in the simple form (permitting the tunnel entering the shaft); with and without orifice plates taking into account the demand and supply condition of energy with the minimum level of water of the conduction. It was determined the hydraulic efficiency and it was found that it was the best constructive option. [Spanish] En este articulo se comparan las fluctuaciones de presion en el pozo de oscilacion del P.H. Zimapan, Hgo., Mexico las cuales fueron estudiadas en modelo hidraulico al considerar dicho pozo ubicado en diferentes posiciones; lateralmente y sobre el eje de la conduccion; pozo simple y con tuberia de conexion; con y sin placa de orificio, para maniobras de rechazo y demanda de carga de las turbinas de generacion con el nivel del agua correspondiente al NAMINO. Se determino la eficiencia hidraulica comparandola con las otras opciones encontrandose que la mejor opcion para el funcionamiento hidraulico es el pozo lateral, que ademas permite optimizar el procedimiento constructivo.

  8. Massive bleaching of coral reefs induced by the 2010 ENSO, Puerto Cabello, Venezuela

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos del Mónaco

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO has generated global coral massive bleaching. The aim of this work was to evaluate the massive bleaching of coral reefs in Puerto Cabello, Venezuela derived from ENSO 2010. We evaluated the bleaching of reefs at five localities both at three and five meter depth. The coral cover and densities of colonies were estimated. We recorded living coral cover, number and diameter of bleached and nonbleached colonies of each coral species. The colonies were classified according to the proportion of bleached area. Satellite images (Modis Scar were analyzed for chlorophyll-a concentration and temperature in August, September, October and November from 2008-2010. Precipitation, wind speed and air temperature information was evaluated in meteorological data for 2009 and 2010. A total of 58.3% of colonies, belonging to 11 hexacoral species, were affected and the greatest responses were observed in Colpophyllia natans, Montastraea annularis and Montastraea faveolata. The most affected localities were closer to the mainland and had a bleached proportion up to 62.73±36.55%, with the highest proportion of affected colonies, whereas the farthest locality showed 20.25±14.00% bleached and the smallest proportion. The salinity in situ varied between 30 and 33ppm and high levels of turbidity were observed. According to the satellite images, in 2010 the surface water temperatura reached 31ºC in August, September and October, and resulted higher than those registered in 2008 and 2009. Regionally, chlorophyll values were higher in 2010 than in 2008 and 2009. The meteorological data indicated that precipitation in November 2010 was three times higher than in November 2009. Massive coral bleaching occurred due to a three month period of high temperatures followed by one month of intense ENSO-associated precipitation. However, this latter factor was likely the trigger because of the bleaching gradient observed. Rev. Biol. Trop. 60 (2

  9. L'effet ENSO Sur les précipitations et les écoulements au XXème siècle - exemple de l'Equateur

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    1993-01-01

    Full Text Available Sur le littoral équatorien, l'analyse statistique des données pluviométriques disponibles, qui s'étalent sur une cinquantaine d'années, a permis de mettre en évidence deux résultats principaux : 1 -les effets de ENSO ne sont pas tous aussi négatifs qu'on le pense habituellement 2 - la fréquence de retour du ENSO 1982-1983 est supérieure à 1000 ans et son impact sur le milieu morpho-dynamique va au-delà des 100 000 km2. IMPACTO DE ENSO EN LAS PRECIPITACIONES Y ESCURRIMIENTOS DURANTE EL SIGLO XX - EL CASO DEL ECUADOR. En la región litoral del Ecuador, un análisis estadístico de las series pluviométricas disponibles, alrededor de cincuenta años, acarrea dos resultados principales: 1 - los efectos de ENSO no son todos tan negativos como se piensa habitualmente 2 - el período de retorno del ENSO 1982-1983 es mayor de los mil años y su impacto sobre el medio geomorfodinámico abarca más de 100 000 km2. ENSO IMPACT ON RAINFALL AND RUNOFF IN XXth CENTURY - CASE OF ECUADOR. On the Pacific coastal region of Ecuador, a statistical analysis of the largest available pluviometric records, about fifty years, yields two main results: 1 - ENSO effects are not so negative as one usually comments 2 - the return period of ENSO 1982-1983 occurrence is over one thousand years and the geomorphodynamic impact acts upon 100 000 km2.

  10. Assessment of the APCC coupled MME suite in predicting the distinctive climate impacts of two flavors of ENSO during boreal winter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeong, Hye-In; Lee, Doo Young [APEC Climate Center (APCC), Pusan (Korea, Republic of); Pusan National University, Pusan (Korea, Republic of); Ashok, Karumuri [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Centre for Climate Change Research, Pune (India); Ahn, Joong-Bae [Pusan National University, Pusan (Korea, Republic of); Lee, June-Yi [University of Hawaii, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, HI (United States); Luo, Jing-Jia [Research Institute for Global Change/JAMSTEC, Yokohama (Japan); Schemm, Jae-Kyung E. [NCEP/NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Camp Spring, MD (United States); Hendon, Harry H.; Braganza, Karl [Bureau of Meteorology, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); Ham, Yoo-Geun [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (NASA/GSFC), Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Greenbelt, MD (United States); Universities Space Research Association, Goddard Earth Sciences Technology and Research Studies and Investigations, Greenbelt, MD (United States)

    2012-07-15

    Forecast skill of the APEC Climate Center (APCC) Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) seasonal forecast system in predicting two main types of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), namely canonical (or cold tongue) and Modoki ENSO, and their regional climate impacts is assessed for boreal winter. The APCC MME is constructed by simple composite of ensemble forecasts from five independent coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. Based on a hindcast set targeting boreal winter prediction for the period 1982-2004, we show that the MME can predict and discern the important differences in the patterns of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly between the canonical and Modoki ENSO one and four month ahead. Importantly, the four month lead MME beats the persistent forecast. The MME reasonably predicts the distinct impacts of the canonical ENSO, including the strong winter monsoon rainfall over East Asia, the below normal rainfall and above normal temperature over Australia, the anomalously wet conditions across the south and cold conditions over the whole area of USA, and the anomalously dry conditions over South America. However, there are some limitations in capturing its regional impacts, especially, over Australasia and tropical South America at a lead time of one and four months. Nonetheless, forecast skills for rainfall and temperature over East Asia and North America during ENSO Modoki are comparable to or slightly higher than those during canonical ENSO events. (orig.)

  11. Comparative Study of the Effects of ENSO Phenomenon (El Niño, La Niña on Temperature and Precipitation of Mashhad

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    vajiheh mohammadi sabet

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The Southern Oscillation is a large scale phenomenon that changes the Normal oscillating air pressure on both sides of the Pacific Ocean. It disrupted the normal conditions and the patterns of temperature and precipitation change in the nearby region and other regions of the world. This phenomenon is caused by changing the water slope in the Pacific Ocean between Peru (northwestern South America and Northern Australia (about Indonesia and Malaysia. ENSO phenomenon is formed of Elnino (warm state and La Niña (cold state. There is high pressure system in the East and low pressure system in the West Pacific Ocean in normal conditions (Walker cycle. The trade winds blow from East to West with high intensity. ENSO start when the trade winds and temperature and pressure balance on both sides of the PacificOcean change. High pressure will form in the west and low pressure will form in the East. As a result, west will have high and east will have low rainfall. Temperature will change at these two locations. Enso longs about 6 to 18 months. This research investigated the impact of ENSO on monthly precipitation and temperature of Mashhad.The results showed that temperature and rainfall have a good relation with ENSO.This relation occurs in 0-5 month lag. Materials and Methods: The severity of ENSO phenomenon is known by an index which is called ENSO index. The index is the anomaly of sea surface temperature in the Pacific. The long-term temperature and precipitation data of Mashhad selected and analyzed. The Rainfall has no trend but temperature has trend. The trend of temperature modeled by MARS regression and trend was removed.The rainfall data changed to standard and temperature changed to anomaly for comparison with ENSO index. The 2016 annual and monthly temperature of Mashhad is not available. The 2016 Annual temperature was forecasted by ARMA (1,1 model. Then this forecast disaggregated to monthly temperature. For each period of

  12. The impact of the warm phase of ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation events on water resource availability of tropical catchments in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia

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    C. Leemhuis

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Precipitation anomalies caused by the warm phase (El Niño of the ENSO cycle lead to a strong decrease of water resources in South-East Asia. The aim of this work is to study the impact of warm phase ENSO caused precipitation anomalies on the water balance of a mesoscale tropical catchment in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia using a scenario analysis. We applied statistically generated precipitation anomalies caused by warm phase ENSO events on a validated hydrological model of the Palu River catchment (2694 km2 to investigate the implications of the generated ENSO scenarios on the total annual water balance, the annual discharge regime and the discharge variability. Moreover we analysed the influence of various catchment characteristics during warm phase ENSO conditions on the discharge variability through a comparison of different sub-catchment types. The results of the scenario analysis proved a severe decline of the annual discharge rate during warm phase ENSO conditions and an increase of the overall discharge variability.

  13. Influence of ENSO events on the freshwater discharge pattern at Patos Lagoon, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barros, G. P.; Marques, W. C.

    2013-05-01

    The aim of this study is to investigate the influence and importance of ENSO events on the control of the freshwater discharge pattern at Patos Lagoon, in timescales longer than one year. For this study it was used freshwater discharge, water levels and South Oscillation Index (SOI) data sets. The Southern Oscillation Index, or SOI, gives an indication of the development and intensity of El Niño or La Niña events in the Pacific Ocean. Sustained negative values of the SOI greater than -8 often indicate El Niño episodes. Sustained positive values of the SOI greater than +8 are typical of a La Niña episode. Cross wavelet technique is applied to examine the coherence and phase between interannual time-series (South Oscillation Index, freshwater discharge and water levels). Over synoptic time scales, wind action is the most effective forcing in Patos Lagoon's circulation. However, at longer time scales (over one year), freshwater discharge becomes the most important forcing, controling the water levels, circulation and other processes. At longer time scales, South America is affected by ENSO's influence. El Niño is the South Oscillation phase where the trade winds are weak, the pressure is low over the eastern Tropical Pacific and high on the west side. The south region of Brazil shows precipitation anomalies associated with the ENSO occurrence. The most significant ENSO events show a high temporal variability, which may occur in near biannual scales (1.5 - 3 years) or in lower frequencies (3 years - 7 years). The freshwater discharge of the main tributaries and water levels in Patos Lagoon are influenced by ENSO on interannual scales (cycles between 3.8 and 6 years). Therefore, El Niño events are associated with high mean values of freshwater discharge and water levels above the mean. On the other hand, La Niña events are associated with low mean values of freshwater discharge and water levels below the mean. These results are consistent with analysis related to

  14. Using Remote Sensing Products to Identify Marine Association Patterns in Factors Relating to ENSO in the Pacific Ocean

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    Cunjin Xue

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO and its relationships with marine environmental parameters comprise a very complicated and interrelated system. Traditional spatiotemporal techniques face great challenges in dealing with which, how, and where the marine environmental parameters in different zones help to drive, and respond to, ENSO events. Remote sensing products covering a 15-year period from 1998 to 2012 were used to quantitatively explore these patterns in the Pacific Ocean (PO by a prevail quantitative association rule mining algorithm, that is, a priori, within a mining framework. The marine environmental parameters considered were monthly anomaly of sea surface chlorophyll-a (CHLA, monthly anomaly of sea surface temperature (SSTA, monthly anomaly of sea level anomaly (SLAA, monthly anomaly of sea surface precipitation (SSPA, and monthly anomaly of sea surface wind speed (WSA. Four significant discoveries are found, namely: (1 Association patterns among marine environmental parameters and ENSO events were found primarily in five sub-regions of the PO: the western PO, the central and eastern tropical PO, the middle of the northern subtropical PO, offshore of the California coast, and the southern PO; (2 In the western and the middle and east of the equatorial PO, the association patterns are more complicated than other regions; (3 The following factors were found to be predicators of and responses to La Niña events: abnormal decrease of SLAA and WSA in the east of the equatorial PO, abnormal decrease of SSPA and WSA in the middle of the equatorial PO, abnormal decrease of SSTA in the eastern and central tropical PO, and abnormal increase of SLAA in the western PO; (4 Only abnormal decrease of CHLA in the middle of the equatorial PO was found to be a predicator of and response to El Niño events. These findings will help to improve our abilities to identify the marine association patterns in factors relating to ENSO events.

  15. What do we need to know to predict ENSO? Student-centered learning in a Master course in Climate Physics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lübbecke, Joke; Glessmer, Mirjam

    2017-04-01

    An important learning outcome of a Master of Sciences program is to empower students to understand which information they need, how they can gain the required knowledge and skills, and how to apply those to solve a given scientific problem. In designing a class on the El-Nino-Southern-Oscillation (ENSO) for students in the Climate Physics program at Kiel University, Germany, we have implemented various active learning strategies to meet this goal. The course is guided by an overarching question, embedded in a short story: What would we need to know to successfully predict ENSO? The students identify desired learning outcomes and collaboratively construct a concept map which then serves as a structure for the 12 weeks of the course, where each individual topic is situated in the larger context of the students' own concept map. Each learning outcome of the course is therefore directly motivated by a need to know expressed by the students themselves. During each session, students are actively involved in the learning process. They work individually or in small groups, for example testing different index definitions, analyzing data sets, setting up simple numerical models and planning and constructing hands-on experiments to demonstrate physical processes involved in the formation of El Niño events. The instructor's role is to provide the necessary background information and guide the students where it is needed. Insights are shared between groups as students present their findings to each other and combine the information, for example by cooperatively constructing a world map displaying the impacts of ENSO or by exchanging experts on different ENSO oscillator theories between groups. Development of this course was supported by the PerLe Fonds for teaching innovations at Kiel University. A preliminary evaluation has been very positive with students in particular appreciating their active involvement in the class.

  16. Changes in El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions during the Younger Dryas revealed by New Zealand tree-rings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmer, Jonathan; Turney, Chris; Cook, Edward; Fenwick, Pavla; Thomas, Zoë; Helle, Gerhard; Jones, Richard; Clement, Amy; Hogg, Alan; Southon, John; Bronk Ramsey, Christopher; Staff, Richard; Muscheler, Raimund; Corrège, Thierry; Hua, Quan

    2017-04-01

    The warming trend at the end of the last glacial was disrupted by rapid cooling clearly identified in Greenland (Greenland Stadial 1 or GS-1) and Europe (Younger Dryas Stadial or YD). This reversal to glacial-like conditions is one of the best known examples of abrupt change but the exact timing and global spatial extent remains uncertain. Whilst the wider Atlantic region has a network of high-resolution proxy records spanning the YD, the Pacific Ocean suffers from a scarcity of sub-decadally resolved sequences. Here we report the results from an investigation into a tree-ring chronology from northern New Zealand aimed at addressing the paucity of data. The conifer tree species kauri (Agathis australis) is known from contemporary studies to be sensitive to regional climate changes. An analysis of a 'historic' 452-year kauri chronology confirms a tropical-Pacific teleconnection via the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We then focus our study to a 1010-year subfossil kauri chronology that has been precisely dated by comprehensive radiocarbon dating and contains a striking ring-width downturn between 12,500 to 12,380 cal BP within the YD. Wavelet analysis shows a marked increase in ENSO-like periodicities occurring after the downturn event. Comparison to low- and mid-latitude Pacific records suggests a coherency in the changes to ENSO and Southern Hemisphere westerly airflow during this period. The drivers for this climate event remain unclear but may be related to solar changes that subsequently led to establishment and/or increased expression of ENSO across the mid-latitudes of the Pacific, seemingly independent of the Atlantic and polar regions.

  17. Variability modes of precipitation along a Central Mediterranean area and their relations with ENSO, NAO, and other climatic patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalimeris, Anastasios; Ranieri, Ezio; Founda, Dimitra; Norrant, Caroline

    2017-12-01

    This study analyses a century-long set of precipitation time series in the Central Mediterranean (encompassing the Greek Ionian and the Italian Puglia regions) and investigates the statistically significant modes of the interannual precipitation variability using efficient methods of spectral decomposition. The statistical relations and the possible physical couplings between the detected modes and the global or hemispheric patterns of climatic variability (the El Niño Southern Oscillation or ENSO, the North Atlantic Oscillation or NAO, the East Atlantic or EA, the Scandinavian or SCAND, and others) were examined in the time-frequency domain and low-order synchronization events were sought. Significant modes of precipitation variability were detected in the Taranto Gulf and the southern part of the Greek Ionian region at the sub-decadal scales (mostly driven by the SCAND pattern) and particularly at the decadal and quasi-decadal scales, where strong relations found with the ENSO activity (under complex implications of EA and NAO) prior to the 1930s or after the early-1970s. The precipitation variations in the Adriatic stations of Puglia are dominated by significant bi-decadal modes which found to be coherent with the ENSO activity and also weakly related with the Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature intrinsic variability. Additionally, important discontinuities characterize the evolution of precipitation in certain stations of the Taranto Gulf and the Greek Ionian region during the early-1960s and particularly during the early-1970s, followed by significant reductions in the mean annual precipitation. These discontinuities seem to be associated with regional effects of NAO and SCAND, probably combined with the impact of the 1970s climatic shift in the Pacific and the ENSO variability.

  18. On the skill of seasonal sea surface temperature forecasts in the California Current System and its connection to ENSO variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacox, Michael G.; Alexander, Michael A.; Stock, Charles A.; Hervieux, Gaëlle

    2017-03-01

    The California Current System (CCS) is a biologically productive Eastern Boundary Upwelling System that experiences considerable environmental variability on seasonal and interannual timescales. Given that this variability drives changes in ecologically and economically important living marine resources, predictive skill for regional oceanographic conditions is highly desirable. Here, we assess the skill of seasonal sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts in the CCS using output from Global Climate Forecast Systems in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), and describe mechanisms that underlie SST predictability. A simple persistence forecast provides considerable skill for lead times up to 4 months, while skill above persistence is mostly confined to forecasts of late winter/spring and derives primarily from predictable evolution of ENSO-related variability. Specifically, anomalously weak (strong) equatorward winds are skillfully forecast during El Niño (La Niña) events, and drive negative (positive) upwelling anomalies and consequently warm (cold) temperature anomalies. This mechanism prevails during moderate to strong ENSO events, while years of ENSO-neutral conditions are not associated with significant forecast skill in the wind or significant skill above persistence in SST. We find also a strong latitudinal gradient in predictability within the CCS; SST forecast skill is highest off the Washington/Oregon coast and lowest off southern California, consistent with variable wind forcing being the dominant driver of SST predictability. These findings have direct implications for regional downscaling of seasonal forecasts and for short-term management of living marine resources.

  19. A 2700-year record of ENSO and PDO variability from the Californian margin based on coccolithophore assemblages and calcification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaufort, Luc; Grelaud, Michaël

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) account for a large part of modern climate variability. Over the last decades, understanding of these modes of climate variability has increased but prediction in the context of global warming has proven difficult because of the lack of pertinent and reproducible paleodata. Here, we infer the dynamics of these oscillations from fossil assemblage and calcification state of coccolithophore in the Californian margin because El Niño has a strong impact on phytoplankton ecology and PDO on the upwelling intensity and hence on the ocean chemistry. Intense Californian upwelling brings water rich in CO2 and poor in carbonate ions and coccolithophores secrete lower calcified coccoliths. Seasonally laminated sediments of the Santa Barbara Basin are used to document ENSO variability and PDO index for the last 2700 years at a temporal resolution of 3 years. The records present the same characteristics as other PDO or ENSO records from the same area spanning the last centuries. We are therefore confident on the value produced here for the last 2.7 millennia. The records show important centennial variability that is equivalent to solar cycles.

  20. Impacts of Forest to Urban Land Conversion and ENSO Phase on Water Quality of a Public Water Supply Reservoir

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emile Elias

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We used coupled watershed and reservoir models to evaluate the impacts of deforestation and l Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO phase on drinking water quality. Source water total organic carbon (TOC is especially important due to the potential for production of carcinogenic disinfection byproducts (DBPs. The Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC reservoir model is used to evaluate the difference between daily pre- and post- urbanization nutrients and TOC concentration. Post-disturbance (future reservoir total nitrogen (TN, total phosphorus (TP, TOC and chlorophyll-a concentrations were found to be higher than pre-urbanization (base concentrations (p < 0.05. Predicted future median TOC concentration was 1.1 mg·L−1 (41% higher than base TOC concentration at the source water intake. Simulations show that prior to urbanization, additional water treatment was necessary on 47% of the days between May and October. However, following simulated urbanization, additional drinking water treatment might be continuously necessary between May and October. One of six ENSO indices is weakly negatively correlated with the measured reservoir TOC indicating there may be higher TOC concentrations in times of lower streamflow (La Niña. There is a positive significant correlation between simulated TN and TP concentrations with ENSO suggesting higher concentrations during El Niño.

  1. Tropical cyclone genesis in the Southern Hemisphere and its relationship with the ENSO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuleshov, Y.; Qi, L. [Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC (Australia). National Climate Centre; Chane Ming, F.; Chouaibou, I.; Hoareau, C. [UMR CNRS-Meteo-France-Univ. de la Reunion, La Reunion (France). Lab. de l' Atmosphere et des Cyclones; Roux, F. [Paul Sabatier Univ., CNRS, Toulouse (France). Lab. d' Aerologie

    2009-07-01

    Tropical cyclogenesis climatology over the South Indian and South Pacific Oceans has been developed using a new tropical cyclone (TC) archive for the Southern Hemisphere, and changes in geographical distribution of areas favourable for TC genesis related to changes in the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases have been investigated. To explain these changes, large-scale environmental variables which influence TC genesis and development such as sea surface temperatures (SSTs), relative humidity in mid-troposphere, vertical wind shear and lower tropospheric vorticity have been examined. In the South Indian Ocean, reduction of TC genesis in the western part of the basin and its increase in the eastern part as well as displacement of the area favourable for TC genesis further away from the equator during La Nina events compared to El Nino events can be explained by changes in geographical distribution of relative humidity and vorticity across the basin as primary contributors; positive anomalies of SSTs observed during La Nina seasons in the eastern part of the basin additionally contribute to enhanced cyclogenesis near the Western Australia. In the South Pacific Ocean, changes in geographical distribution of relative humidity and vorticity appear to be the key large-scale environmental factors responsible for enhanced TC genesis in the eastern (western) part of the basin as well as for the northeast (southwest) shift of points of cyclogenesis during El Nino (La Nina) events, with vertical wind shear and SSTs as additional contributing large-scale environmental variables. (orig.)

  2. ENSO Weather and Coral Bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGowan, Hamish; Theobald, Alison

    2017-10-01

    The most devastating mass coral bleaching has occurred during El Niño events, with bleaching reported to be a direct result of increased sea surface temperatures (SSTs). However, El Niño itself does not cause SSTs to rise in all regions that experience bleaching. Nor is the upper ocean warming trend of 0.11°C per decade since 1971, attributed to global warming, sufficient alone to exceed the thermal tolerance of corals. Here we show that weather patterns during El Niño that result in reduced cloud cover, higher than average air temperatures and higher than average atmospheric pressures, play a crucial role in determining the extent and location of coral bleaching on the world's largest coral reef system, the World Heritage Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia. Accordingly, synoptic-scale weather patterns and local atmosphere-ocean feedbacks related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and not large-scale SST warming due to El Niño alone and/or global warming are often the cause of coral bleaching on the GBR.

  3. Improving Stochastic Modelling of Daily Rainfall Using the ENSO Index: Model Development and Application in Chile

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    Diego Urdiales

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Stochastic weather simulation, or weather generators (WGs, have gained a wide acceptance and been used for a variety of purposes, including climate change studies and the evaluation of climate variability and uncertainty effects. The two major challenges in WGs are improving the estimation of interannual variability and reducing overdispersion in the synthetic series of simulated weather. The objective of this work is to develop a WG model of daily rainfall, incorporating a covariable that accounts for interannual variability, and apply it in three climate regions (arid, Mediterranean, and temperate of Chile. Precipitation occurrence was modeled using a two-stage, first-order Markov chain, whose parameters are fitted with a generalized lineal model (GLM using a logistic function. This function considers monthly values of the observed Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies of the Region 3.4 of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO index as a covariable. Precipitation intensity was simulated with a mixed exponential distribution, fitted using a maximum likelihood approach. The stochastic simulation shows that the application of the approach to Mediterranean and arid climates largely eliminates the overdispersion problem, resulting in a much improved interannual variability in the simulated values.

  4. Extraction of 10–30-Day Stable Components from a Boreal Atmosphere during ENSO Phases

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    Kuo Wang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Distinguishing the predictable 10–30-day stable components (STs in the actual atmosphere has been important in atmospheric science research. In this study, a new method for extracting 10–30-day STs was developed with the use of historical observations. We extracted and analyzed 10–30-day STs via statistical extrapolation tests. The results show that the STs are maintained uniformly at the intraseasonal time scale; the overall trends in the atmospheric motion are revealed. Comparisons between pentad-by-pentad changes in the explained variances of the 10–30-day STs under ENSO phases show that the explained variance transmission attenuation trends for El Niño and La Niña years are weaker and more continuous than those of neutral years. Data for 10–30-day STs can remain continuous and stable from one month to the next. The proposed method and results present a new means of extracting predictable STs from the atmosphere using historical data.

  5. Enso-like cyclicity In Late Pleistocene varve thickness measurements from two alpine lakes, Wind River Range, Wyoming, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahms, D. E.; Noren, A. J.; Geiss, C. E.; Dorale, J. A.; Myrbo, A.

    2011-12-01

    Spectral analyses of varve thickness measurements in sediment cores from two moraine-dammed lakes in the Wind River Range of Wyoming, USA, reveal a 2.8-to-8-yr cyclicity consistent with that expressed by ENSO. The lakes [Louis Lake (42.596°N,108.846°W, 2610 m and nearby Fiddlers Lake 42.6312°N, 108.8786°W, 2868 m] and hold the possibility of longer records of mid-continental climate change even into the last interglacial. Nine macrofossil-based 14C ages (AMS) combined with varve thicknesses indicate the lakes were deep enough during the LGM to form and preserve varves and that the minimum age for the lacustrine sediments here is ~20 kyrs. The ENSO signal is most robust in the Louis Lake varves, displaying high spectral power across the entire band of frequencies associated with ENSO. Analysis of the Fiddlers Lake varves yield predictably less significant results, a consequence of the different geomorphic settings of these two lakes. Specifically, (1) Louis Lake has a large catchment and receives surface water input from a stream, which has delivered a large quantity of sediment to the lake margin and deposited a substantial delta. In this setting, variations in precipitation appear closely linked to sediment delivery to the lake, and are reflected in sediment distributions, while (2) Fiddlers Lake is located in a small re-entrant basin with a relatively insignificant catchment area and fed almost entirely by groundwater and direct rain/snow events, with little surface runoff; (3) the deeper water of Louis Lake aids in the formation and preservation of varves, while (4) lake level fluctuations in the shallower Fiddlers Lake directly affect varve creation and preservation (the onset of glaciation in the Fiddlers Lake core is represented by thick sediment packages that eventually thin to varves by ~1m up-core). The significant ENSO-like periodicities in the the varved sediments in these lakes suggests that the effects of ENSO forcing were felt far into the western

  6. Symmetric and asymmetric components of anomalous tropospheric-mean horizontal fluxes of latent and sensible heat associated with ENSO events of variable magnitude

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kutta, Evan; Hubbart, Jason A.; Svoma, Bohumil M.; Eichler, Timothy; Lupo, Anthony R.

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) represents the dominant mode of global climate variability and is inherently nonlinear such that the linearity of the atmospheric response remains an area of ongoing research. The phase of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Pacific North American (PNA) patterns of intra-annual climate variability are favored to be the same as the phase of ENSO resulting in important climate impacts across Europe and North America. Advanced understanding of the symmetry of this response at global scale using monthly composite analyses of anomalous horizontal sensible and latent heat fluxes at various ENSO event magnitudes quantified from ERA-Interim output (January 1979 through June 2016) will advance impact predictability. A linear relationship between ENSO, PNA, and NAO patterns was identified, particularly for strong ENSO events. The nonlinear component indicated general eastward (westward) shifts in anomalous heat fluxes during El Niño (La Niña) events such that the greatest impacts were implied across North America during Decembers and Januarys of strong El Niño and weak La Niña events. Analyses of anomalous latent heat fluxes indicated spatial patterns consistent with more frequent atmospheric river phenomena, especially during Decembers and Januarys of strong El Niño events. This work demonstrates that the symmetric component of anomalous horizontal, tropospheric-mean heat fluxes corresponding to ENSO events are effective for identifying north-south dipoles of anomalous circulations consistent with PNA or NAO patterns and connections between tropical heat source regions and the PNA and NAO regions. This work also demonstrates the asymmetric component identified differences in anomalous circulation position and whether El Niño or La Niña resulted in larger heat flux anomalies. Therefore, this work provides insight into impacts associated with future ENSO events, especially across North America during strong El Niño and weak La

  7. PRONOSTICANDO EL ÍNDICE ENSO VARIOS PASOS EN ADELANTE MEDIANTE TÉCNICAS DE MODELAMIENTO NO LINEAL FORECASTING ENSO SEVERAL STEPS AHEAD THROUGH NONLINEAR MODELING TECHNIQUES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Salini Calderón

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Se indica cómo manejar una gran base de datos consistente de series temporales no lineales, aplicando distintas técnicas de modelamiento no lineal a estas series. Aunque no existen guías explícitas de manipulación de series temporales no lineales en la profusa bibliografía actual, existen diferentes enfoques que pueden ser tomados en cuenta. Para ello se estudió una base de datos mensual correspondiente a datos del Fenómeno del Niño (ENSO, entre los años 1866 y 2006. Se explica cómo debe manipularse esta base de datos que poseen características de no linealidad, la cual será usada para hacer pronósticos varios pasos en adelante. Se aplicaron dos test estándar: Información Mutua Promedio (AMI y Falsos Vecinos más Cercanos (FNN. Se obtuvo el espaciamiento óptimo de los datos, así como el número de datos hacia atrás necesarios para pronosticar valores hacia el futuro. Luego, se diseñaron varios modelos de redes neuronales artificiales (RNA, con diferentes reglas de aprendizajes, funciones de transferencia, elementos de procesamiento (o neuronas en la capa escondida, etc., que permitieron hacer pronóstico de hasta 20 pasos en adelante. Las mejores redes correspondieron a aquellas que poseían como regla de aprendizaje la Regla Delta y la Regla Extendida, con función de transferencia sigmoide y tangente hiperbólica. El tipo de RNA usada fue una de multicapas alimentada hacia adelante y entrenada mediante la técnica de propagación hacia atrás. Se probaron redes con una, dos capas ocultas y sin ninguna capa. El mejor modelo que se obtuvo resultó ser uno consistente de una capa oculta.We indicate how to handle a large database consisting of nonlinear time series, applying different nonlinear modelling techniques to this kind of times series. Nowadays in the current references there is no explicit guide of how to manipulate data from nonlinear time series; however, there are approaches that can be taken account. To this end

  8. Respuestas del clima de América del Sur a las fases de ENSO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available RÉPONSE DU CLIMAT DE L’AMÉRIQUE DU SUD AUX PHASES DE L’ENSO. Les phases hautes de l’ENSO, El Niño (EN, ou basses, Anti-Niño (AN, ont des répercussions diverses sur la pluviométrie de l’Amérique du sud. Pour caractériser ces diverses réponses, les précipitations annuelles ou saisonnières ont été réunies en trois groupes : celui des années EN, celui des années AN et celui des années normales. Les années qui précèdent les étés australs avec EN, les pluies hivernales dans le centre du Chili et dans les Andes de l’ouest de l’Argentine sont renforcées. Certaines années, on observe des sécheresses dans le Nordeste du Brésil au cours de l’été et de l’automne austral qui précèdent le phénomène El Niño dans le Pacifique Tropical. Au cours des mois de décembre à mars des années EN, il pleut abondamment sur la côte ouest de l’Amérique du Sud, depuis la baie de Tumaco jusqu’à Pacasmayo. À l’intérieur, dans la Sierra et l’Altiplano péruano-bolivien, on observe des sécheresses au cours de cette période alors qu’il pleut abondamment au cours de l’été et de l’automne austral dans les basses terres de l’Est de la Bolivie, du Paraguay et du Sud-Est du Brésil. À mesure que l’on s’avance vers l’automne austral, on observe de fortes précipitations dans la partie basse du bassin du Rio de la Plata et du Sud du Brésil. Dans la partie septentrionale et la partie inférieure du bassin amazonien les pluies sont déficitaires au cours des EN, pour devenir excédentaires au cours des AN. La partie intérieure du bassin amazonien réagit de manière inverse : on y observe des excès pluviométriques certaines années EN. Les régions du Venezuela et de la Colombie, sous l’influence climatique des Caraïbes et de l’Atlantique présentent des anomalies négatives de précipitation au cours des EN et une forte pluviosité au cours des AN. Une partie de la Pampa et de la Patagonie ne réagit pas aux

  9. Impact of Big Tambora Eruption on ENSO, Ocean Heat Uptake, and Sea Level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stenchikov, G.; Ramaswamy, V.; Delworth, T.

    2007-12-01

    Strong explosive volcanic eruptions could produce global stratospheric aerosol clouds that last for 2-3 years reflecting solar radiation and cooling the earth's surface. The climate response to volcanic impact forms as a result of interaction of associated thermal and dynamic perturbations with the major modes of climate variability. The paleo proxy data even suggest that strong tropical eruptions could increase the likelihood of El Niño. E.g., the strongest explosive events of 19th and 20th centuries, Tambora eruption in 1815 and the Mt. Pinatubo eruption in 1991, occurred in El Niño years. After volcanic impacts surface air temperature relaxes typically for 7 years but cooling accumulated in the ocean can be seen for about a century in the sub-thermocline waters. Decrease of deep ocean temperature is associated with negative anomalies of sea level. This provides a mechanism of how short-term volcanic radiative impacts could produce perturbations in climate system that last for centuries producing a cumulative cooling effect. In this study we have employed a coupled climate model (GFDL CM2.1) for calculating impacts of the Big Tambora, and Pinatubo eruptions. The aerosol cloud of Tambora eruption was about 3 times of that from the Pinatubo eruption therefore it produced much stronger climate effect. Here we consider Tambora climate effect in context of a well observed Pinatubo impact because this adds in confidence of simulation results. To synchronize volcanic eruptions and ENSO we have chosen initial conditions from those years of a control run that exhibited, specific ENSO phase and conducted ten 20-year ensemble runs with El Niño, La Niña, and Neutral initial conditions, for each volcano. We found that maximum cooling for El Niño cases tends to shift to the second year after an eruption therefore notorious Tambora's year without a summer was simulated in 1816 as observed. In La Niña cases maximum cooling appears in the year when eruption occurred. In the

  10. Impacts of high-latitude volcanic eruptions on ENSO and AMOC.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pausata, Francesco S R; Chafik, Leon; Caballero, Rodrigo; Battisti, David S

    2015-11-10

    Large volcanic eruptions can have major impacts on global climate, affecting both atmospheric and ocean circulation through changes in atmospheric chemical composition and optical properties. The residence time of volcanic aerosol from strong eruptions is roughly 2-3 y. Attention has consequently focused on their short-term impacts, whereas the long-term, ocean-mediated response has not been well studied. Most studies have focused on tropical eruptions; high-latitude eruptions have drawn less attention because their impacts are thought to be merely hemispheric rather than global. No study to date has investigated the long-term effects of high-latitude eruptions. Here, we use a climate model to show that large summer high-latitude eruptions in the Northern Hemisphere cause strong hemispheric cooling, which could induce an El Niño-like anomaly, in the equatorial Pacific during the first 8-9 mo after the start of the eruption. The hemispherically asymmetric cooling shifts the Intertropical Convergence Zone southward, triggering a weakening of the trade winds over the western and central equatorial Pacific that favors the development of an El Niño-like anomaly. In the model used here, the specified high-latitude eruption also leads to a strengthening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the first 25 y after the eruption, followed by a weakening lasting at least 35 y. The long-lived changes in the AMOC strength also alter the variability of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

  11. Late Holocene Hydroclimate Variability of West-Central Guatemala Driven by NAO and ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stansell, N.; Feller, J. R.; Steinman, B. A.; Lachniet, M. S.; Shea, C.; Avendaño, C.

    2016-12-01

    Finely-laminated sediments from Lake San Francisco in the Huehuetenango province of west-central Guatemala provide a sub-decadal resolution record of hydroclimate variability spanning the last 5200 years. Age control is based on 7 radiocarbon samples of charcoal and lead-210 dating of surface sediments. Modern water isotope samples indicate the lake is currently an open system, and variations of δ18O values of precipitation in the region are driven largely by the amount effect. In contrast, a strong covariance of δ18O and δ13C values combined with pollen evidence in the lower part of the record suggests the lake was a seasonally closed-basin from 5200 to 3200 BP, and was sensitive to evaporation under more arid conditions. There was an overall trend of increasingly wetter conditions during the late Holocene, and a lack of covariance between δ18O and δ13C indicates that the lake transitioned to an open-basin after 3200 BP. The Medieval Climate Anomaly was the wettest period of the late Holocene, and there was a shift to lower precipitation amounts during the Little Ice Age. Present conditions are more arid than most of the last millennium, but δ18O values in the modern sediments are intermediate compared to the full late Holocene. The Lake San Francisco record provides additional evidence that the hydroclimate of Central America is sensitive to both changes in North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Drier conditions at San Francisco over the length of the record were associated with more negative phases of NAO and vice versa. During the last 1500 years, drier conditions at San Francisco were also associated with warmer sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Niño3 region, and it was wetter when SSTs were colder.

  12. Large-scale shifts in phytoplankton groups in the Equatorial Pacific during ENSO cycles

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    I. Masotti

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO drives important changes in the marine productivity of the Equatorial Pacific, in particular during major El Niño/La Niña transitions. Changes in environmental conditions associated with these climatic events also likely impact phytoplankton composition. In this work, the distribution of four major phytoplankton groups (nanoeucaryotes, Prochlorococcus, Synechococcus, and diatoms was examined between 1996 and 2007 by applying the PHYSAT algorithm to the ocean color data archive from the Ocean Color and Temperature Sensor (OCTS and Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS. Coincident with the decrease in chlorophyll concentrations, a large-scale shift in the phytoplankton composition of the Equatorial Pacific, that was characterized by a decrease in Synechococcus and an increase in nanoeucaryote dominance, was observed during the early stages of both the strong El Niño of 1997 and the moderate El Niño of 2006. A significant increase in diatoms dominance was observed in the Equatorial Pacific during the 1998 La Niña and was associated with elevated marine productivity. An analysis of the environmental variables using a coupled physical-biogeochemical model (NEMO-PISCES suggests that the Synechococcus dominance decrease during the two El Niño events was associated with an abrupt decline in nutrient availability (−0.9 to −2.5 μM NO3 month−1. Alternatively, increased nutrient availability (3 μM NO3 month−1 during the 1998 La Niña resulted in Equatorial Pacific dominance diatom increase. Despite these phytoplankton community shifts, the mean composition is restored after a few months, which suggests resilience in community structure.

  13. Testing for orbital and solar forcing of the ENSO system during the Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grist, H.; Marchitto, T. M.; Parker, A. O.; Ortiz, J. D.; van Geen, A.

    2013-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system has been shown to vary on both orbital and millennial timescales during the late Quaternary. Proxy records of Mg/Ca-derived sea surface temperature (SST) and climate models show an increased temperature gradient across the Pacific corresponding to a more La Niña-like state during the early-mid-Holocene. This may be attributed to an ';ocean dynamical thermostat' whereby increased boreal summer/fall insolation enhances the easterlies and intensifies the Pacific cold tongue. Previous measurements on Globigerina bulloides from the Soledad Basin off the coast of Baja California Sur (Marchitto et al., 2010) confirm orbital scale cooling during the early-mid-Holocene (10-4 ka). Millennial scale cold intervals between 11-7 ka correspond to solar maxima suggesting that the ocean dynamical thermostat also operates on millennial timescales. However Marchitto et al. could not rule out local upwelling as a driver of G. bulloides temperature variations since this species lives near the surface during the upwelling season. We aim to resolve the source of the temperature signal observed in Soledad Basin by analyzing two other species for Mg/Ca. Globigerinoides ruber lives in the surface mixed layer during summer months. We expect G. ruber to have experienced the early-mid Holocene shoaling of the thermocline as recorded by G. bulloides. If not, we must attribute some or all of the G. bulloides signal to an upwelling season response to direct solar insolation. Neogloboquadrina incompta lives at the deep chlorophyll maximum, and the depth of its habitat changes little as the thermocline shoals or deepens allowing Mg/Ca reconstructions to track changes in thermocline depth. Preliminary results from N. incompta across several millennial-scale coolings show temperature changes of similar magnitudes to those found in G. bulloides, indicating that the coolings are indeed due to La Niña-like shoaling of the thermocline.

  14. Tropical cyclone genesis in the Southern Hemisphere and its relationship with the ENSO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Kuleshov

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Tropical cyclogenesis climatology over the South Indian and South Pacific Oceans has been developed using a new tropical cyclone (TC archive for the Southern Hemisphere, and changes in geographical distribution of areas favourable for TC genesis related to changes in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO phases have been investigated. To explain these changes, large-scale environmental variables which influence TC genesis and development such as sea surface temperatures (SSTs, relative humidity in mid-troposphere, vertical wind shear and lower tropospheric vorticity have been examined. In the South Indian Ocean, reduction of TC genesis in the western part of the basin and its increase in the eastern part as well as displacement of the area favourable for TC genesis further away from the equator during La Niña events compared to El Niño events can be explained by changes in geographical distribution of relative humidity and vorticity across the basin as primary contributors; positive anomalies of SSTs observed during La Niña seasons in the eastern part of the basin additionally contribute to enhanced cyclogenesis near the Western Australia. In the South Pacific Ocean, changes in geographical distribution of relative humidity and vorticity appear to be the key large-scale environmental factors responsible for enhanced TC genesis in the eastern (western part of the basin as well as for the northeast (southwest shift of points of cyclogenesis during El Niño (La Niña events, with vertical wind shear and SSTs as additional contributing large-scale environmental variables.

  15. Contrasting biogeochemical responses of ENSO induced upwelling variability in the Humboldt Current System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franco, Ana C.; Gruber, Nicolas; Münnich, Matthias

    2017-04-01

    The Humboldt Current System (HCS) is one of the most productive ecosystems in the world. This high productivity is supported by a large input of nutrients from the subsurface layers to the surface due to year-round upwelling. However, upwelling also supplies waters with low pH and low aragonite saturation state potentially affecting many organisms, especially those that calcify. The influence, extent and source of upwelled water vary substantially on interannual timescales in association with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, generating natural contrasting responses on the biogeochemistry of this system. Here we analyze these responses using an eddy resolving, basin-scale ocean model that covers the whole Pacific Ocean with high resolution (4 km) on the west coast of South America. We performed a simulation of the last 30 years (hindcast simulation) that allows us to investigate the influence of at least eight El Niño episodes and eight La Niña episodes on productivity variations and changes in oxygen concentration and aragonite saturation state. An absolute change in surface omega aragonite of almost 2 units, as well as an absolute change of the aragonite saturation depth of 200 m result from the change of an El Niño phase to a La Niña phase. This variability is on the same order of magnitude as the projected change in the aragonite saturation state in a centennial timescale. During La Niña events, a lower aragonite saturation state values and reduced oxygen concentration in the surface layer are a direct consequence of enhanced upwelling and increased net primary productivity. The opposite is true during El Niño events, where high values of omega aragonite occur in concordance with extraordinarily low net primary productivity values.

  16. South Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature and its Relationship with Precipitation in Brazil During Neutral ENSO Periods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bombardi, R. J.; Carvalho, L. V.; Jones, C.

    2012-12-01

    The dominant mode of coupled variability over the South Atlantic Ocean is known as "South Atlantic Dipole" (SAD) and is characterized by a dipole in sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies with centers over the tropical and the subtropical South Atlantic. Previous studies have shown that variations in SST related to SAD modulate large-scale patterns of precipitation over the Atlantic Ocean. Here we show that variations in the South Atlantic SST strongly impact daily precipitation over central-eastern Brazil (Fig. 1). Moreover, we examine the mechanisms whereby the South Atlantic SST anomalies influence the climate of the region. Rain gauge precipitation, satellite derived sea surface temperature and reanalysis data are used to investigate the variability of the subtropical and tropical South Atlantic and impacts on precipitation. SAD phases are assessed by performing Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) analysis of sea level pressure and SST anomalies. We show that during neutral ENSO events, SAD is an important role on the interaction tropics-extratropics. Positive SST anomalies over the subtropical South Atlantic (SAD negative phase) favor cyclogenesis as well as the migration of extratropical cyclones further north, increasing precipitation over central-eastern Brazil. We expect that the results from this study will contribute to climate monitoring and forecast.; Figure 1 - Composites of SST anomalies (shade) and precipitation (contour) during a) negative SAD events; b) positive SAD events. Difference between composites of SAD events (positive minus negative) for c) precipitation and d) SST. Shading in (c) and (d) indicate regions where the difference is statistically significant at 5% level according to the z-test of the difference of means. Contour interval equal 0.25 mm.day-1 in (a) and (b) and equal 0.5 mm.day-1 in (c).

  17. Sea level variability in East China Sea and its response to ENSO

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    Jun-cheng ZUO

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Sea level variability in the East China Sea (ECS was examined based primarily on the analysis of TOPEX/Poseidon altimetry data and tide gauge data as well as numerical simulation with the Princeton ocean model (POM. It is concluded that the inter-annual sea level variation in the ECS is negatively correlated with the ENSO index, and that the impact is more apparent in the southern area than in the northern area. Both data analysis and numerical model results also show that the sea level was lower during the typical El Niño period of 1997 to 1998. El Niño also causes the decrease of the annual sea level variation range in the ECS. This phenomenon is especially evident in the southern ECS. The impacts of wind stress and ocean circulation on the sea level variation in the ECS are also discussed in this paper. It is found that the wind stress most strongly affecting the sea level was in the directions of 70º and 20º south of east, respectively, over the northern and southern areas of the ECS. The northwest wind is particularly strong when El Niño occurs, and sea water is transported southeastward, which lowers the sea level in the southern ECS. The sea level variation in the southern ECS is also significantly affected by the strengthening of the Kuroshio. During the strengthening period of the Kuroshio, the sea level in the ECS usually drops, while the sea level rises when the Kuroshio weakens.

  18. Mechanism of Interannual Variability in Western Boundary Currents along Madagascar and their Relation with the ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamagami, Y.; Tozuka, T.

    2016-02-01

    The South Equatorial Current (SEC) in the Indian Ocean bifurcates at the east coast of Madagascar into the Northeast and Southeast Madagascar Currents (NEMC and SEMC, respectively). The NEMC and SEMC transport anomalies influence eddy activities in the Mozambique Channel and the southwest of Madagascar. These eddies not only influence the ecosystems in the Mozambique Channel, but may also modulate the global thermohaline circulation by affecting water mass exchange between the Indian and Atlantic Oceans through their influence on the Agulhas Ring shedding. Therefore, to enhance understanding of the dynamical connection between NEMC and SEMC variability and physical and biological variability in their downstream, the dynamical mechanism of interannual variations in the NEMC and SEMC transport is investigated. The NEMC (SEMC) transport in reanalysis data undergoes interannual variations with the peak-to-peak amplitude of about 15 (6) Sv. The time-dependent Island Rule indicates that the above interannual variations are due to the responses to anomalous meridional interior transport. This is a result of westward popagating Rossby waves generated by Ekman pumping anomalies over 60°E - 90°E. It is shown that the NEMC and SEMC transports are correlated with the Niño 3.4 index with 5-15 months lag and ENSO-related diabatic heating anomalies over the western tropical Pacific generate wind stress curl anomalies over the southern Indian Ocean. These wind stress anomalies are also modified by local SST anomalies in the southeastern Indian Ocean. The above influences from the local and remote SST anomalies are confirmed by atmospheric general circulation model experiments.

  19. Antarctic Circumpolar Wave and its Seasonality: Intrinsic Traveling Modes and ENSO Teleconnections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, X.; Giannakis, D.; Slawinska, J. M.

    2016-12-01

    Despite global warming, recent changes in Antarctic sea ice exhibit a complex spatial structure that integrates to positive trend for the whole continent. This tendency is in stark contract with model projections and remains challenging to explain as separation of multi-scale natural variability and anthropogenic forcing is limited by the time span of the observational record. Moreover, due to the data preprocessing required by conventional data analysis techniques (e.g., EOF analysis), the results have frequently ambiguous physical interpretation. In this work, we study Antarctic sea ice variability in a millennial control integration of CCSM4 and in HadISST data using nonlinear Laplacian spectral analysis (NLSA), a nonlinear decomposition method which does not require data pre-filtering. Applied to sea ice concentration data, NLSA recovers the dominant signal that corresponds to the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave (ACW). This mode has a period of around 4-5 years, and the corresponding spatiotemporal pattern shows a clear eastward propagation around Antarctica. Two further groups of modes have frequencies consistent with the nonlinear modulation of the annual cycle by the ACW, and exhibit eastward and westward propagation, respectively. We explain the origin of these modes by establishing the teleconnection between ACW and the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean; in particular, NLSA recovers a fundamental ENSO mode and its associated combination modes with the annual cycle that project strongly to ACW modes identified over Antarctica. Moreover, by applying multivariate analysis of SST and surface winds, we identify physical mechanisms coupling Antarctic sea ice with atmospheric and oceanic circulation over the Southern Oceans. Extensions of this work aiming to improve model fidelity and predictability of the Antarctic cryosphere are also discussed.

  20. ENSO-Driven Variability of Denitrification and Suboxia in the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Simon; Gruber, Nicolas; Long, Matthew C.; Vogt, Meike

    2017-10-01

    The Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP) hosts two of the world's three Oxygen Deficient Zones (ODZs), large bodies of suboxic water that are subject to high rates of water column denitrification (WCD). In the mean, these two ODZs are responsible for about 15 to 40% of all fixed N loss in the ocean, but little is known about how this loss varies in time. Here we use a hindcast simulation with the ocean component of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Earth System Model over the period 1948 to 2009 to show that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drives large variations in the rates of WCD in this region. During mature La Niña (El Niño) conditions, peak denitrification rates are up to 70% higher (lower) than the mean rates. This large variability is the result of wind-driven changes in circulation and isopycnal structure concurrently modifying the thermocline distribution of O2 and organic matter export in such a way that the response of WCD is strongly amplified. During average La Niña (El Niño) conditions, the overall changes in ODZ structure and primarily the shoaling (deepening) of the upper boundary of both ODZs by 40 to 100 m explains 50% of the changes in WCD in the North Pacific and 94% in the South Pacific. Such a large variability of WCD in the ETP has strong implications for the assessments of trends, the balance of the marine N cycle and the emission of the greenhouse gas N2O.

  1. Two ENSO episodes with reversed impacts on the regional precipitation of the northeastern South America Dos eventos ENSO con impactos opuestos sobre la precipitación regional en el noreste de Sudamérica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Everaldo B. de Souza

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available Diagnostic analyses of two ENSO episodes observed during 1954-55 (La Niña and 1972-73 (El Niño over tropical Pacific Ocean are reported. These years were marked by reversed impact on the regional precipitation observed over the northeastern South America. The observational results showed that, in the Pacific Ocean, the La Niña stayed well configured during both summer and autumn of 1954-55, however the El Niño presented its mature phase during summer of 1972-73 and an abrupt decline during autumn of 1973. On the other hand, the large-scale oceanic and atmospheric patterns related to the intertropical Atlantic SST gradient, created dynamic conditions that modulated the positioning of ITCZ in the equatorial Atlantic and regulated significantly the rainfall anomalies observed in the northeastern South America, overcoming the effect of the ENSO mode observed in the tropical Pacific.En el presente trabajo se realiza un estudio de diagnóstico de los eventos ENSO ocurridos en 1954-55 (La Niña y 1972-73 (El Niño. Durante 1954-55 (1972-73, se observaron anomalías de temperaturas de la superficie del mar (TSM positivas (negativas en el Atlántico Norte y negativas (positivas en el Atlántico Sur, lo que define la fase positiva (negativa del dipolo Atlántico. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que pese a la ocurrencia del evento La Niña (El Niño en el Pacífico, la configuración del dipolo positivo (negativo en el Atlántico creó las condiciones favorables para mantener la ITCZ al norte (sur del Ecuador. En consecuencia, se encontró un déficit (exceso de precipitación en el nor-noreste brasileño durante DEF y MAM de 1954-55 (1972-73. Por lo tanto, durante estos años la configuración anómala de TSM en el Atlántico moduló las anomalías de lluvia observadas en el Amazonas y noreste de Brasil, superando el efecto del ENSO.

  2. Indo-western Pacific ocean capacitor and coherent climate anomalies in post-ENSO summer: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Shang-Ping; Kosaka, Yu; Du, Yan; Hu, Kaiming; Chowdary, Jasti S.; Huang, Gang

    2016-04-01

    ENSO induces coherent climate anomalies over the Indo-western Pacific, but these anomalies outlast SST anomalies of the equatorial Pacific by a season, with major effects on the Asian summer monsoon. This review provides historical accounts of major milestones and synthesizes recent advances in the endeavor to understand summer variability over the Indo-Northwest Pacific region. Specifically, a large-scale anomalous anticyclone (AAC) is a recurrent pattern in post-El Ni˜no summers, spanning the tropical Northwest Pacific and North Indian oceans. Regarding the ocean memory that anchors the summer AAC, competing hypotheses emphasize either SST cooling in the easterly trade wind regime of the Northwest Pacific or SST warming in the westerly monsoon regime of the North Indian Ocean. Our synthesis reveals a coupled ocean-atmosphere mode that builds on both mechanisms in a two-stage evolution. In spring, when the northeast trades prevail, the AAC and Northwest Pacific cooling are coupled via wind-evaporation-SST feedback. The Northwest Pacific cooling persists to trigger a summer feedback that arises from the interaction of the AAC and North Indian Ocean warming, enabled by the westerly monsoon wind regime. This Indo-western Pacific ocean capacitor (IPOC) effect explains why El Ni˜no stages its last act over the monsoonal Indo-Northwest Pacific and casts the Indian Ocean warming and AAC in leading roles. The IPOC displays interdecadal modulations by the ENSO variance cycle, significantly correlated with ENSO at the turn of the 20th century and after the 1970s, but not in between. Outstanding issues, including future climate projections, are also discussed.

  3. On the effects of ENSO on ocean biogeochemistry in the Northern Humboldt Current System (NHCS): A modeling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mogollón, Rodrigo; Calil, Paulo H. R.

    2017-08-01

    The response of the ocean biogeochemistry to intense El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in the Northern Humboldt Current System (NHCS) is assessed with an eddy-resolving coupled physical-biogeochemical model. El Niño (EN) 1997-1998 and La Niña (LN) 1999-2000 are well reproduced, inducing large spatial and temporal variability of biogeochemical properties at three coastal upwelling centers along the Peruvian coast (Chimbote 9.4°S, Callao 12.1°S, and Pisco 14°S). During EN, the upper limit of the Oxygen Minimum Zone (OMZ) experiences an offshore displacement of, approximately, 60 km and a deepening of, approximately, 150 m when compared to neutral-ENSO conditions, thus ventilating the upper 100 m of the water column. In contrast, during LN, the OMZ tongue outcrops over the continental shelf deoxygenating the water column at all locations. During LN, at the southernmost location, enhanced Eddy Kinetic Energy (EKE) induces a leaking of the coastal nutrient inventory by horizontally advecting nitrogen from the nearshore region into the oligotrophic ocean. This leads to a reduction of biological production in the coastal zone. During EN, nitrification is an order of magnitude larger than denitrification in supplying the nitrite coastal pool. During LN peak, nitrification is reduced by 80%, while denitrification becomes equally important, evidencing a coupling between these two oxygen-dependent processes. The nitrogen removal due to suboxic activity is mostly controlled by the Anaerobic Ammonium Oxidation (Anammox) in the southern domain during neutral-ENSO conditions. Our results show that during EN, denitrification contributes with 60% of the total nitrogen removal. In contrast, Anammox contributes with 70% during LN. The outgassing of nitrous oxide (N2O), an intermediate product of denitrification, is reduced and enhanced during EN and LN, respectively, and it is strongly modulated by the spatiotemporal variability of oxygen in the environment.

  4. Air-sea fluxes for Hurricane Patricia (2015): Comparison with supertyphoon Haiyan (2013) and under different ENSO conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Hsiao-Ching; Boucharel, Julien; Lin, I.-I.; Jin, Fei-Fei; Lien, Chun-Chi; Pun, Iam-Fei

    2017-08-01

    Hurricane Patricia formed on 20 October 2015 in the Eastern Pacific and, in less than 3 days, rapidly intensified from a Tropical Storm to a record-breaking hurricane with maximum sustained winds measured around 185 knots. It is almost 15 knots higher than 2013's supertyphoon Haiyan (the previous strongest tropical cyclone (TC) ever observed). This research focuses on analyzing the air-sea enthalpy flux conditions that contributed to Hurricane Patricia's rapid intensification, and comparing them to supertyphoon Haiyan's. Despite a stronger cooling effect, a higher enthalpy flux supply is found during Patricia, in particular due to warmer pre-TC sea surface temperature conditions. This resulted in larger temperature and humidity differences at the air-sea interface, contributing to larger air-sea enthalpy heat fluxes available for Patricia's growth (24% more than for Haiyan). In addition, air-sea fluxes simulations were performed for Hurricane Patricia under different climate conditions to assess specifically the impact of local and large-scale conditions on storm intensification associated with six different phases and types of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and long-term climatological summer condition. We found that the Eastern Pacific El Niño developing and decaying summers, and the Central Pacific El Niño developing summer are the three most favorable ENSO conditions for storm intensification. This still represents a 37% smaller flux supply than in October 2015, suggesting that Patricia extraordinary growth is not achievable under any of these typical ENSO conditions but rather the result of the exceptional environmental conditions associated with the buildup of the strongest El Niño ever recorded.

  5. Influence of ENSO Decadal Variations on the PDO and Indian Ocean SST in Observations and CMIP Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaign, L.; Gangan, N. A., Jr.

    2016-02-01

    The first mode of sea-surface-temperature (SST) variability in the north Pacific Ocean (north of 20N) is often referred as 'Pacific Decadal Osciallation' (PDO), owing to its prominent energy level at decadal time scales. This mode of variability with its spatial extension over the tropical Pacific (referred as Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation - IPO) is indeed the dominant mode of decadal variability in the Pacific Ocean. The PDO can be understood in observations as a direct response to ENSO and atmospheric white noise in the north Pacific, reddened by the reemergence of north Pacific SST from winter to winter. In this study, we characterize PDO simulated by 32 coupled models from the CMIP (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) database, with a specific focus on the representation of tropical/extratropical teleconnections in these models. The analysis shows that the PDO, in a majority of the CMIP models, exhibits a clear tropical Pacific signature and agrees well with the hypothesis that (along with atmospheric white noise) ENSO is a major driver of PDO at both interannual and decadal timescales. One third of the models however show a PDO confined to the north Pacific, with weak tropical signals and ENSO influence. In the CMIP models, the amplitude of Indian Ocean response to PDO is found to be closely related to the amplitude of PDO signature over the tropical Pacific. The observational analysis suggests Indian Ocean teleconnection pattern associated with the tropical Pacific variability differ between interannual and decadal timescales, with a warming largely confined to the southwestern Indian Ocean at decadal timescales. In contrast, models show very similar signatures at both timescales, suggesting a possible misrepresentation of the teleconnections to the Indian Ocean at decadal timescales.

  6. Revisiting Cholera-Climate Teleconnections in the Native Homeland: ENSO and other Extremes through the Regional Hydroclimatic Drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akanda, A. S.; Jutla, A.; Huq, A.; Colwell, R. R.

    2014-12-01

    Cholera is a global disease, with significantly large outbreaks occurring since the 1990s, notably in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia and recently in Haiti, in the Caribbean. Critical knowledge gaps remain in the understanding of the annual recurrence in endemic areas and the nature of epidemic outbreaks, especially those that follow extreme hydroclimatic events. Teleconnections with large-scale climate phenomena affecting regional scale hydroclimatic drivers of cholera dynamics remain largely unexplained. For centuries, the Bengal delta region has been strongly influenced by the asymmetric availability of water in the rivers Ganges and the Brahmaputra. As these two major rivers are known to have strong contrasting affects on local cholera dynamics in the region, we argue that the role of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), or other phenomena needs to be interpreted in the context of the seasonal role of individual rivers and subsequent impact on local environmental processes, not as a teleconnection having a remote and unified effect. We present a modified hypothesis that the influences of large-scale climate phenomena such as ENSO and IOD on Bengal cholera can be explicitly identified and incorporated through regional scale hydroclimatic drivers. Here, we provide an analytical review of the literature addressing cholera and climate linkages and present hypotheses, based on recent evidence, and quantification on the role of regional scale hydroclimatic drivers of cholera. We argue that the seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature, and resulting river discharge in the GBM basin region during ENSO and IOD events have a dominant combined effect on the endemic persistence and the epidemic vulnerability to cholera outbreaks in spring and fall seasons, respectively, that is stronger than the effect of localized hydrological and socio-economic sensitivities in Bangladesh. In addition, systematic identification of underlying seasonal

  7. Influencia del clima local y del ENSO en el crecimiento de abarco (Cariniana pyriformis), Chocó, Colombia

    OpenAIRE

    Moreno Valoyes , Miyer Mersory

    2013-01-01

    Resumen: Éste estudio parte de la hipótesis de que los anillos de crecimiento del abarco (Cariniana pyriformis) son anuales y sensibles a la variabilidad climática del área de estudio, municipio Carmen del Darién, Chocó. Por tanto se planteó como objetivo estudiar la anatomía de los anillos de crecimiento del abarco, su frecuencia de formación y su relación con la temperatura, la precipitación y el fenómeno ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation). Los resultados indican que el abarco tiene anillo...

  8. Influence of ENSO and the NAO on terrestrial carbon uptake in the Texas-northern Mexico region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parazoo, Nicholas C.; Barnes, Elizabeth; Worden, John; Harper, Anna B.; Bowman, Kevin B.; Frankenberg, Christian; Wolf, Sebastian; Litvak, Marcy; Keenan, Trevor F.

    2015-08-01

    Climate extremes such as drought and heat waves can cause substantial reductions in terrestrial carbon uptake. Advancing projections of the carbon uptake response to future climate extremes depends on (1) identifying mechanistic links between the carbon cycle and atmospheric drivers, (2) detecting and attributing uptake changes, and (3) evaluating models of land response and atmospheric forcing. Here, we combine model simulations, remote sensing products, and ground observations to investigate the impact of climate variability on carbon uptake in the Texas-northern Mexico region. Specifically, we (1) examine the relationship between drought, carbon uptake, and variability of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) using the Joint UK Land-Environment Simulator (JULES) biosphere simulations from 1950-2012, (2) quantify changes in carbon uptake during record drought conditions in 2011, and (3) evaluate JULES carbon uptake and soil moisture in 2011 using observations from remote sensing and a network of flux towers in the region. Long-term simulations reveal systematic decreases in regional-scale carbon uptake during negative phases of ENSO and NAO, including amplified reductions of gross primary production (GPP) (-0.42 ± 0.18 Pg C yr-1) and net ecosystem production (NEP) (-0.14 ± 0.11 Pg C yr-1) during strong La Niña years. The 2011 megadrought caused some of the largest declines of GPP (-0.50 Pg C yr-1) and NEP (-0.23 Pg C yr-1) in our simulations. In 2011, consistent declines were found in observations, including high correlation of GPP and surface soil moisture (r = 0.82 ± 0.23, p = 0.012) in remote sensing-based products. These results suggest a large-scale response of carbon uptake to ENSO and NAO, and highlight a need to improve model predictions of ENSO and NAO in order to improve predictions of future impacts on the carbon cycle and the associated feedbacks to climate change.

  9. Assessment of hurricane's effect on the upper mixed layer of the southwestern Mexican Pacific during ENSO 1997-1998: in situ and satellite observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raúl Aguirre-Gómez

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Using data from closely spaced CTD profiles and satellite imagery we investigated the effect of hurricane Rick on the sea surface temperature (SST and the upper mixed layer of the southwestern Mexican Pacific coast. Effects of ENSO 1997-1998 in this region are also discussed by analysing SST maps. Coincident hydrographic measurements were carried out during an oceanographic campaign over the area in November 1997. Results revealed an increment of SST between 3 to 4°C above the climatological mean temperature (25° ± 2°C, in the Mexican Tropical Pacific, during ENSO. In situ measurements show instabilities in the upper mixed layer after the pass of the hurricane in oceanic areas. Satellite and historical databases enabled interpretation and analyses of ENSO's effect on the southwest coast of Mexico.

  10. Cluster analysis of tropical cyclone tracks in the Southern Hemisphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramsay, Hamish A. [Monash University, Monash Weather and Climate, School of Mathematical Sciences, Clayton, VIC (Australia); Camargo, Suzana J.; Kim, Daehyun [Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY (United States)

    2012-08-15

    A probabilistic clustering method is used to describe various aspects of tropical cyclone (TC) tracks in the Southern Hemisphere, for the period 1969-2008. A total of 7 clusters are examined: three in the South Indian Ocean, three in the Australian Region, and one in the South Pacific Ocean. Large-scale environmental variables related to TC genesis in each cluster are explored, including sea surface temperature, low-level relative vorticity, deep-layer vertical wind shear, outgoing longwave radiation, El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Composite maps, constructed 2 days prior to genesis, show some of these to be significant precursors to TC formation - most prominently, westerly wind anomalies equatorward of the main development regions. Clusters are also evaluated with respect to their genesis location, seasonality, mean peak intensity, track duration, landfall location, and intensity at landfall. ENSO is found to play a significant role in modulating annual frequency and mean genesis location in three of the seven clusters (two in the South Indian Ocean and one in the Pacific). The ENSO-modulating effect on genesis frequency is caused primarily by changes in low-level zonal flow between the equator and 10 S, and associated relative vorticity changes in the main development regions. ENSO also has a significant effect on mean genesis location in three clusters, with TCs forming further equatorward (poleward) during El Nino (La Nina) in addition to large shifts in mean longitude. The MJO has a strong influence on TC genesis in all clusters, though the amount modulation is found to be sensitive to the definition of the MJO. (orig.)

  11. The large-scale ENSO event, the El Niño and other important regional features

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    1993-01-01

    Full Text Available L'EVENEMENT ENSO A GRANDE ECHELLE, EL NIÑO ET AUTRES CARACTERISTIQUES REGIONALES IMPORTANTES. En ce qui concerne cette activité, on a ramassé - et on continue de le faire - une information coordonnée et améliorée. Cependant, les informations année après année sur les changements climatiques en lien avec l’Oscillation du Sud (SO sont limitées de façon primaire à la période comprise entre l’année 622 et nos jours. La fluctuation océano-atmosphérique récurrente et à grande échelle, El Niño/ Oscillation du Sud (ENSO, qui se présente sous les basses latitudes depuis l’Afrique orientale vers l’est jusqu’aux Amériques, se manifeste en gros comme une «balançoire» dans les conditions océano-atmosphériques entre la zone de l’Océan Indien tropical et celles de l’Océan Pacifique tropical. L’ENSO est en lien avec une phase de bas indice de la SO et est associé, du côté occidental de la «balançoire», à une sécheresse en Australie occidentale et septentrionale, une sècheresse par l’est de la mousson en Indonésie, une pluie déficiente de la mousson-est d’été en Inde et une pluie déficiente de la mousson d’été dans la montagne éthiopienne (qui débouche sur une faible contribution au système du Nil. Par opposition, du côté oriental de la «balançoire», celle-ci est en lien avec El Niño, avec des températures superficielles de la mer (TSM anormalement hautes, des pluies au-dessus de la normale dans le Pacifique équatorial central et oriental et des pluies anormalement fortes dans le Chili sub-tropical. Le haut indice (phase anti-Niño de la SO est en lien, du côté occidental de la «balançoire», avec des pluies anormalement fortes en Australe orientale et septentrionale, des pluies de mousson de l’est anormalement fortes en Indonésie, des pluies de mousson d’été au-dessus de la normale en Inde, et une quantité d’eau anormalement grande qui se déverse dans le Nil, suite aux pluies de

  12. Calcification and growth rate recovery of the reef-building Pocillopora species in the northeast tropical Pacific following an ENSO disturbance

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    Jose de Jesús A. Tortolero-Langarica

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Pocilloporids are one of the major reef-building corals in the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP and also the most affected by thermal stress events, mainly those associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO periods. To date, coral growth parameters have been poorly reported in Pocillopora species in the northeastern region of the tropical Pacific. Monthly and annual growth rates of the three most abundant morphospecies (P. cf. verrucosa, P. cf. capitata, and P. cf. damicornis were evaluated during two annual periods at a site on the Pacific coast of Mexico. The first annual period, 2010–2011 was considered a strong ENSO/La Niña period with cool sea surface temperatures, then followed by a non-ENSO period in 2012–2013. The linear extension rate, skeletal density, and calcification rate averaged (±SD were 2.31 ± 0.11 cm yr−1, 1.65 ± 0.18 g cm−3, 5.03 ± 0.84 g cm−2 yr-1 respectively, during the strong ENSO event. In contrast, the respective non-ENSO values were 3.50 ± 0.64 cm yr−1, 1.70 ± 0.18 g cm−3, and 6.02 ± 1.36 g cm−2 yr−1. This corresponds to 52% and 20% faster linear extension and calcification rates, respectively, during non-ENSO period. The evidence suggests that Pocillopora branching species responded positively with faster growth rates following thermal anomalies, which allow them to maintain coral communities in the region.

  13. Sensitivity of North American agriculture to ENSO-based climate scenarios and their socio-economic consequences: Modeling in an integrated assessment framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosenberg, N.J.; Izaurralde, R.C.; Brown, R.A.; Sands, R.D. [Pacific Northwest National Lab., Richland, WA (United States); Legler, D. [Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL (United States). Center for Ocean Atmosphere Prediction Studies; Srinivasan, R. [Texas A and M Univ., College Station, TX (United States). Blacklands Research Center; Tiscareno-Lopez, M.

    1997-09-01

    A group of Canadian, US and Mexican natural resource specialists, organized by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) under its North American Energy, Environment and Economy (NA3E) Program, has applied a simulation modeling approach to estimating the impact of ENSO-driven climatic variations on the productivity of major crops grown in the three countries. Methodological development is described and results of the simulations presented in this report. EPIC (the Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator) was the agro-ecosystem model selected-for this study. EPIC uses a daily time step to simulate crop growth and yield, water use, runoff and soil erosion among other variables. The model was applied to a set of so-called representative farms parameterized through a specially-assembled Geographic Information System (GIS) to reflect the soils, topography, crop management and weather typical of the regions represented. Fifty one representative farms were developed for Canada, 66 for the US and 23 for Mexico. El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) scenarios for the EPIC simulations were created using the historic record of sea-surface temperature (SST) prevailing in the eastern tropical Pacific for the period October 1--September 30. Each year between 1960 and 1989 was thus assigned to an ENSO category or state. The ENSO states were defined as El Nino (EN, SST warmer than the long-term mean), Strong El Nino (SEN, much warmer), El Viejo (EV, cooler) and Neutral (within {+-}0.5 C of the long-term mean). Monthly means of temperature and precipitation were then calculated at each farm for the period 1960--1989 and the differences (or anomalies) between the means in Neutral years and EN, SEN and EV years determined. The average monthly anomalies for each ENSO state were then used to create new monthly statistics for each farm and ENSO-state combination. The adjusted monthly statistics characteristic of each ENSO state were then used to drive a stochastic-weather simulator

  14. ENSO and interdecadal climate variability over the last century documented by geochemical records of two coral cores from the South West Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Ourbak

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The south west Pacific is affected by climatic phenomena such as ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation or the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Near-monthly resolution calibrations of Sr/Ca, U/Ca and δ18Oc were made on corals taken from New Caledonia and Wallis Island. These geochemical variations could be linked to SST (sea surface temperature and SSS (sea surface salinity variations over the last two decades, itselves dependent on ENSO occurrences. On the other hand, near-half-yearly resolution over the last century smoothes seasonal and interannual climate signals, but emphasizes low frequency climate variability.

  15. Reconstructing the Paleo ENSO records from tropical and subtropical ice cores

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    1993-01-01

    Full Text Available RECONSTRUCTION DES REGISTRES DE PALÉOENSO À PARTIR DE CAROTTES DE GLACE TROPICALES ET SUB-TROPICALES. La variabilité interannuelle du climat est une des principales caractéristiques du système climatique, en particulier dans les régions tropicales et sub-tropicales. Il est essentiel de savoir si l’empreinte de la variabilité interannuelle dans le registre climatique est affectée par un changement dans l’état moyen du système climatique. Cet objectif ne peut être atteint qu’en analysant de longs registres de variabilité climatique interannuelle tout au long d’intervalles dans le passé, quand le climat était différent de l’actuel (ex. Petit Age Glaciaire, Réchauffement Médiéval, Dernière Glaciation. Ce travail est particulièrement important étant donné que l’Homme peut, sans le savoir, altérer l’état moyen du climat général. À l’exception du cycle annuel, ENSO est le signal climatique global dominant à des échelles de temps qui vont de quelques mois à quelques années. Celui-ci est associé à des dislocations importantes du régime de pluie sous les tropiques. Tandis que les régions côtières désertiques du nord-est péruvien subissent des précipitations anormalement fortes, les régions des hauts plateaux du sud du Pérou, où se trouve le Quelccaya, connaissent la sècheresse. Les variations annuelles dans la quantité et composition chimique des précipitations qui s’accumulent aussi bien dans les glaciers polaires qu’alpins (forte élévation produisent des laminations qui permettent une datation précise de ces séquences stratigraphiques. Cet article examine la variabilité climatique interannuelle dans les registres des carottes de glace du Quelccaya (1 sur les 150 dernières années, où il existe une quantité limitée de documents qui permettent d’évaluer les informations contenues dans les carottes de glace et (2 le registre plus long, qui couvre les 1500 dernières années, où l

  16. ENSO Prediction in the NASA GMAO GEOS-5 Seasonal Forecasting System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovach, R. M.; Borovikov, A.; Marshak, J.; Pawson, S.; Vernieres, G.

    2016-12-01

    Seasonal-to-Interannual coupled forecasts are conducted in near-real time with the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM). A 30-year suite of 9-month hindcasts is available, initialized with the MERRA-Ocean, MERRA-Land, and MERRA atmospheric fields. These forecasts are used to predict the timing and magnitude of ENSO and other short-term climate variability. The 2015 El Niño peaked in November 2015 and was considered a "very strong" event with the Equatorial Pacific Ocean sea-surface-temperature (SST) anomalies higher than 2.0 °C. These very strong temperature anomalies began in Sep/Oct/Nov (SON) of 2015 and persisted through Dec/Jan/Feb (DJF) of 2016. The other two very strong El Niño events recently recorded occurred in 1981/82 and 1997/98. The GEOS-5 system began predicting a very strong El Niño for SON starting with the March 2015 forecast. At this time, the GMAO forecast was an outlier in both the NMME and IRI multi-model ensemble prediction plumes. The GMAO May 2015 forecast for the November 2015 peak in temperature anomaly in the Niño3.4 region was in excellent agreement with the real event, but in May this forecast was still one of the outliers in the multi-model forecasts. The GEOS-5 May 2015 forecast also correctly predicted the weakening of the Eastern Pacific (Niño1+2) anomalies for SON. We will present a summary of the NASA GMAO GEOS-5 Seasonal Forecast System skills based on historic hindcasts. Initial conditions, prediction of ocean surface and subsurface evolution for the 2015/16 El Niño will be compared to the 1998/97 event. GEOS-5 capability to predict the precipitation, i.e. to model the teleconnection patterns associated with El Niño will also be shown. To conclude, we will highlight some new developments in the GEOS forecasting system.

  17. The Impact of ENSO on Extratropical Low Frequency Noise in Seasonal Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schubert, Siegfried D.; Suarez, Max J.; Chang, Yehui; Branstator, Grant

    2000-01-01

    This study examines the uncertainty in forecasts of the January-February-March (JFM) mean extratropical circulation, and how that uncertainty is modulated by the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The analysis is based on ensembles of hindcasts made with an Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) forced with sea surface temperatures observed during; the 1983 El Nino and 1989 La Nina events. The AGCM produces pronounced interannual differences in the magnitude of the extratropical seasonal mean noise (intra-ensemble variability). The North Pacific, in particular, shows extensive regions where the 1989 seasonal mean noise kinetic energy (SKE), which is dominated by a "PNA-like" spatial structure, is more than twice that of the 1983 forecasts. The larger SKE in 1989 is associated with a larger than normal barotropic conversion of kinetic energy from the mean Pacific jet to the seasonal mean noise. The generation of SKE due to sub-monthly transients also shows substantial interannual differences, though these are much smaller than the differences in the mean flow conversions. An analysis of the Generation of monthly mean noise kinetic energy (NIKE) and its variability suggests that the seasonal mean noise is predominantly a statistical residue of variability resulting from dynamical processes operating on monthly and shorter times scales. A stochastically-forced barotropic model (linearized about the AGCM's 1983 and 1989 base states) is used to further assess the role of the basic state, submonthly transients, and tropical forcing, in modulating the uncertainties in the seasonal AGCM forecasts. When forced globally with spatially-white noise, the linear model generates much larger variance for the 1989 base state, consistent with the AGCM results. The extratropical variability for the 1989 base state is dominanted by a single eigenmode, and is strongly coupled with forcing over tropical western Pacific and the Indian Ocean, again consistent with the AGCM results

  18. Further analysis of singular vector and ENSO predictability in the Lamont model. Pt. 1. Singular vector and the control factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cheng, Yanjie; Tang, Youmin; Jackson, Peter [University of Northern British Columbia, Environmental Science and Engineering, Prince George, BC (Canada); Zhou, Xiaobing [University of Northern British Columbia, Environmental Science and Engineering, Prince George, BC (Canada); Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR), Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); Chen, Dake [Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY (United States); State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics, Hangzhou (China)

    2010-10-15

    In this study, singular vector analysis was performed for the period from 1856 to 2003 using the latest Zebiak-Cane model version LDEO5. The singular vector, representing the optimal growth pattern of initial perturbations/errors, was obtained by perturbing the constructed tangent linear model of the Zebiak-Cane model. Variations in the singular vector and singular value, as a function of initial time, season, ENSO states, and optimal period, were investigated. Emphasis was placed on exploring relative roles of linear and nonlinear processes in the optimal perturbation growth of ENSO, and deriving statistically robust conclusions using long-term singular vector analysis. It was found that the first singular vector is dominated by a west-east dipole spanning most of the equatorial Pacific, with one center located in the east and the other in the central Pacific. Singular vectors are less sensitive to initial conditions, i.e., independence of seasons and decades; while singular values exhibit a strong sensitivity to initial conditions. The dynamical diagnosis shows that the total linear and nonlinear heating terms play opposite roles in controlling the optimal perturbation growth, and that the linear optimal perturbation is more than twice as large as the nonlinear one. The total linear heating causes a warming effect and controls two positive perturbation growth regions: one in the central Pacific and the other in the eastern Pacific; whereas the total linearized nonlinear advection brings a cooling effect controlling the negative perturbation growth in the central Pacific. (orig.)

  19. A reduction in the asymmetry of ENSO amplitude due to global warming: The role of atmospheric feedback

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ham, Yoo-Geun

    2017-08-01

    This study analyzes a reduction in the asymmetry of El Niño Southern-Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude due to global warming in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models. The multimodel-averaged Niño3 skewness during December-February season decreased approximately 40% in the RCP4.5 scenario compared to that in the historical simulation. The change in the nonlinear relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation is a key factor for understanding the reduction in ENSO asymmetry due to global warming. In the historical simulations, the background SST leading to the greatest precipitation sensitivity (SST for Maximum Precipitation Sensitivity, SST_MPS) occurs when the positive SST anomaly is located over the equatorial central Pacific. Therefore, an increase in climatological SST due to global warming weakens the atmospheric response during El Niño over the central Pacific. However, the climatological SST over this region in the historical simulation is still lower than the SST_MPS for the negative SST anomaly; therefore, a background SST increase due to global warming can further increase precipitation sensitivity. The atmospheric feedbacks during La Niña are enhanced and increase the La Niña amplitude due to global warming.

  20. Climate links and recent extremes in antarctic sea ice, high-latitude cyclones, Southern Annular Mode and ENSO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pezza, Alexandre Bernardes; Simmonds, Ian [The University of Melbourne, School of Earth Sciences, Parkville, VIC (Australia); Rashid, Harun A. [Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology), Private Bag 1, Melbourne, VIC (Australia)

    2012-01-15

    In this article, we study the climate link between the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the southern sea-ice extent (SIE), and discuss the possible role of stationary waves and synoptic eddies in establishing this link. In doing so, we have used a combination of techniques involving spatial correlations of SIE, eddy streamfunction and wind anomalies, and statistics of high-latitude cyclone strength. It is suggested that stationary waves may be amplified by eddy anomalies associated with high latitude cyclones, resulting in more sea ice when the SAM is in its positive phase for most, but not all, longitudes. A similar association is observed during ENSO (La Nina years). Although this synergy in the SAM/ENSO response may partially reflect preferential areas for wave amplification around Antarctica, the short extent of the climate records does not allow for a definite causality connection to be established with SIE. Stronger polar cyclones are observed over the areas where the stationary waves are amplified. These deeper cyclones will break up and export ice equatorward more efficiently, but the near-coastal regions are cold enough to allow for a rapid re-freeze of the resulting ice break-up. We speculate that if global warming continues this same effect could help reverse the current (positive) Antarctic SIE trends once the ice gets thinner, similarly to what has been observed in the Northern Hemisphere. (orig.)

  1. Distinguishing stratospheric sudden warmings from ENSO as key drivers of wintertime climate variability over the North Atlantic and Eurasia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polvani, Lorenzo; Sun, Lantao; Butler, Amy; Richter, Yaga; Deser, Clara

    2017-04-01

    Stratospheric conditions are increasingly being recognized as an important driver of North Atlantic and Eurasian climate variability. Mindful that the observational record is relatively short, and that internal climate variability can be large, we here analyze a new 10-member ensemble of integrations of a stratosphere-resolving, atmospheric general circulation model, forced with the observed evolution of sea surface temperature (SST) during 1952-2003. We confirm previous studies, and show that El Niño conditions enhance the frequency of occurrence of stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs), whereas La Niña does not appear to affect it. We note, however, large differences among ensemble members, suggesting caution when interpreting the relatively short observational record. More importantly, we emphasize that the majority of SSWs are not caused by anomalous tropical Pacific SSTs. Comparing composites of winters with and without SSWs in each ENSO phase separately, we demonstrate that stratospheric variability gives rise to large and statistically significant anomalies in tropospheric circulation and surface conditions over the North Atlantic and Eurasia. This indicates that, for those regions, climate variability of stratospheric origin is comparable in magnitude to variability originating from tropical Pacific SSTs, so that the occurrence of a single SSW in a given winter is able to completely alter seasonal climate predictions based solely on ENSO conditions

  2. Issues in Establishing Climate Sensitivity in Recent Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John T. Fasullo

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Numerous attempts have been made to constrain climate sensitivity with observations [1-10] (with [6] as LC09, [8] as SB11. While all of these attempts contain various caveats and sources of uncertainty, some efforts have been shown to contain major errors and are demonstrably incorrect. For example, multiple studies [11-13] separately addressed weaknesses in LC09 [6]. The work of Trenberth et al. [13], for instance, demonstrated a basic lack of robustness in the LC09 method that fundamentally undermined their results. Minor changes in that study’s subjective assumptions yielded major changes in its main conclusions. Moreover, Trenberth et al. [13] criticized the interpretation of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO as an analogue for exploring the forced response of the climate system. In addition, as many cloud variations on monthly time scales result from internal atmospheric variability, such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation, cloud variability is not a deterministic response to surface temperatures. Nevertheless, many of the problems in LC09 [6] have been perpetuated, and Dessler [10] has pointed out similar issues with two more recent such attempts [7,8]. Here we briefly summarize more generally some of the pitfalls and issues involved in developing observational constraints on climate feedbacks. [...

  3. A space-time statistical climate model for hurricane intensification in the North Atlantic basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraza, Erik; Elsner, James B.; Jagger, Thomas H.

    2016-08-01

    Climate influences on hurricane intensification are investigated by averaging hourly intensification rates over the period 1975-2014 in 8° × 8° latitude-longitude grid cells. The statistical effects of hurricane intensity and sea-surface temperature (SST), along with the climatic effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), are quantified using a Bayesian hierarchical model fit to the averaged data. As expected, stronger hurricanes tend to have higher intensification rates, especially over the warmest waters. Of the three climate variables considered, the NAO has the largest effect on intensification rates after controlling for intensity and SST. The model shows an average increase in intensification rates of 0.18 [0.06, 0.31] m s-1 h-1 (95 % credible interval) for every 1 standard deviation decrease in the NAO index. Weak trade winds associated with the negative phase of the NAO might result in less vertical wind shear and thus higher mean intensification rates.

  4. MJO Simulation Diagnostics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waliser, D; Sperber, K; Hendon, H; Kim, D; Maloney, E; Wheeler, M; Weickmann, K; Zhang, C; Donner, L; Gottschalck, J; Higgins, W; Kang, I; Legler, D; Moncrieff, M; Schubert, S; Stern, W; Vitart, F; Wang, B; Wang, W; Woolnough, S

    2008-06-02

    The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) interacts with, and influences, a wide range of weather and climate phenomena (e.g., monsoons, ENSO, tropical storms, mid-latitude weather), and represents an important, and as yet unexploited, source of predictability at the subseasonal time scale. Despite the important role of the MJO in our climate and weather systems, current global circulation models (GCMs) exhibit considerable shortcomings in representing this phenomenon. These shortcomings have been documented in a number of multi-model comparison studies over the last decade. However, diagnosis of model performance has been challenging, and model progress has been difficult to track, due to the lack of a coherent and standardized set of MJO diagnostics. One of the chief objectives of the US CLIVAR MJO Working Group is the development of observation-based diagnostics for objectively evaluating global model simulations of the MJO in a consistent framework. Motivation for this activity is reviewed, and the intent and justification for a set of diagnostics is provided, along with specification for their calculation, and illustrations of their application. The diagnostics range from relatively simple analyses of variance and correlation, to more sophisticated space-time spectral and empirical orthogonal function analyses. These diagnostic techniques are used to detect MJO signals, to construct composite life-cycles, to identify associations of MJO activity with the mean state, and to describe interannual variability of the MJO.

  5. The Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) Program at NOAA - Improved Understanding of Tropical Pacific Processes, Biases, and Climatology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucas, S. E.; Todd, J. F.

    2016-02-01

    The Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) Program at NOAA supports research aimed at providing process-level understanding of the climate system through observation, modeling, analysis, and field studies. This vital knowledge is needed to improve climate models and predictions so that scientists can better anticipate the impacts of future climate variability and change. To achieve its mission, the CVP Program supports research carried out at NOAA and other federal laboratories, NOAA Cooperative Institutes, and academic institutions. The Program also coordinates its sponsored projects with major national and international scientific bodies including the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), the International and U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR/US CLIVAR) Program, and the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The CVP program sits within NOAA's Climate Program Office (http://cpo.noaa.gov/CVP). A leading-order issue for improvement of predictions and projections of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and other important climate phenomena is the need for climate models to correctly and consistently produce the seasonally-varying background state. The CVP Program currently supports eleven projects in area of "Improved Understanding of Tropical Pacific Processes, Biases, and Climatology." Recent results from CVP-funded projects will be summarized in this poster and the development of the NOAA CVP Pacific Task Force will be discussed.

  6. Impacts of ENSO events on cloud radiative effects in preindustrial conditions: Changes in cloud fraction and their dependence on interactive aerosol emissions and concentrations: IMPACT OF ENSO ON CLOUD RADIATIVE EFFECT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Yang [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Now at Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Russell, Lynn M. [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Xu, Li [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Lou, Sijia [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Lamjiri, Maryam A. [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Somerville, Richard C. J. [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Miller, Arthur J. [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Cayan, Daniel R. [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; DeFlorio, Michael J. [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Ghan, Steven J. [Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Liu, Ying [Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Singh, Balwinder [Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Wang, Hailong [Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Yoon, Jin-Ho [Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology, Gwangju South Korea; Rasch, Philip J. [Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA

    2016-06-02

    The impacts of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on shortwave and longwave cloud radiative effects (CRESW and CRELW) and the underlying changes in cloud fraction as well as aerosol emissions, wet scavenging and transport are quantified using three 150-year simulations in preindustrial conditions by the CESM model. Compared to recent observations from Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES), the model simulation successfully reproduced larger variations of CRESW over the tropical western and central Pacific, Indonesian regions, and the eastern Pacific Ocean, as well as large variations of CRELW located mainly within the tropics. The ENSO cycle is found to dominate interannual variations of cloud radiative effects, especially over the tropics. Relative to those during La Niña events, simulated cooling (warming) effects from CRESW (CRELW) during El Niño events are stronger over the tropical western and central Pacific Ocean, with the largest difference exceeding 40 Wm–2 (30 Wm–2), with weaker effects of 10–30 Wm–2 over Indonesian regions and the subtropical Pacific Ocean. Sensitivity tests show that variations of cloud radiative effects are mainly driven by ENSO-related changes in cloud fraction. The variations in medium and high cloud fractions each account for about 20–50% of the interannual variations of CRESW over the tropics and almost all of the variations of CRELW between 60°S and 60°N. The variation of low cloud fraction contributes most interannual variations of CRESW over the mid-latitude oceans. Variations in natural aerosol concentrations considering emissions, wet scavenging and transport explained 10–30% of the interannual variations of both CRESW and CRELW over the tropical Pacific, Indonesian regions and the tropical Indian Ocean. Changes in wet scavenging of natural aerosol modulate the variations of cloud radiative effects. Because of increased (decreased) precipitation over the tropical western Pacific

  7. Influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the behavior of floods in the Itajaí River basin in Southern Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiago Silva, Artur; Portela, Maria Manuela; Naghettini, Mauro; Fernandes, Wilson

    2016-04-01

    The Itajaí River basin is located in the Southeastern South America (SESA) region, where the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on hydrometeorological extremes has been reported. The lower reaches of the river are prone to calamitous floods as the basin is frequently subjected to extreme rainfall events. The history of devastating floods motivated the construction of detention dams in the upper reaches of the river during the 1970s-1990s. This work presents a study on the nonstationarity of floods in the Itajaí River, using a peaks-over-threshold (POT) approach applied to flood data from 3 gauging stations located in the Basin. Exploratory data analysis methods and nonstationary Poisson-Generalized Pareto models are used to study the joint influence of ENSO and upstream flood control dams on the flood regime of the river. Bayesian model estimation techniques are used with prior belief about the Generalized Pareto shape parameter elicited from regional information. The analysis revealed that occurrence rate and over-threshold peak magnitudes exhibit statistically significant and complex relationships with ENSO. Results also show evidence that, while upstream flood detention dams play a perceptible, though small, role in reducing flood hazard, the influence of the climate covariate on the flood regime is dominant. Furthermore, increased ENSO activity in recent decades, possibly related to a reported climate regime shift in the mid-1970s, has increased flood hazard and led to the occurrence of very large annual floods.

  8. ENSO variability in the western tropical Pacific during the 20th and 14th centuries: preliminary results from a ~700 year coral

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorman, M. K.; Quinn, T. M.; Taylor, F. W.; Shen, C.; Maupin, C. R.; Wu, C.

    2012-12-01

    Understanding El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability prior to anthropogenic influence is crucial to understanding natural climate variability and to informing predictions of future climate change. Coral-based climate records from ENSO-sensitive regions provide unique high-resolution archives of past ENSO variability. However, the massive coral most commonly used in climate studies, Porites spp., rarely provide climate record lengths in excess of 200 years. This presents a challenge because recent work suggests that proxy records of ENSO variability need to exceed 500 years in length in order to capture the full range of natural variability of the ENSO system. Here we present preliminary oxygen isotope (δ18O) data from a slower growing, ~700 year long Diploastrea heliopora coral from Lambumbu Bay, Vanuatu (LBV; 16.19°S, 167.39°E), located at the southern edge of the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP). Coral-based climate records from this region have been shown to be reliable recorders of ENSO-related variability of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). The LBV coral was drilled live in 2010 and the bottom of the coral has a U-Th date of 1228 ± 10 CE. Our initial focus is to characterize and compare the geochemical variability recorded in the oldest (14th century) and youngest (20th century) sections of the coral. We observe a δ18O anomaly during the 14th century similar in magnitude to the δ18O anomaly associated with the 1997-1998 ENSO warm-phase event. We also observe that coral δ18O values in the 14th century are enriched by ~ 0.9‰, relative to modern coral δ18O values, which likely reflects salinity differences. Finally, 20th century coral δ18O variability agrees well with a previously published δ18O record from a Porites lutea coral (Sabine Bank, Vanuatu, ~130 km away) providing us with confidence in using Diploastrea heliopora corals for multicentury, continuous coral-based paleoclimate reconstructions.

  9. ENSO impacts on the South American rainfall during 1980s: Hadley and Walker circulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Souza, E.B.; Ambrizzi, T. [Departamento de Ciencias Atmosfericas, Instituto Astronomico y Geofisico, Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2002-04-01

    The changes in the Hadley and Walter cells and their respective impacts on the South American rainfall during the ENSO episodes observed in the decade of 80, were investigated through cross-sections analyses of the atmospheric circulation in altitude, averaged in the zonal and meridional planes. Such large-scale cells almost inverted their climatological circulation pattern, during El Nino events (1982-83 and 1986-87). In these years, manifestation of the anomalous descending branch of the Hadley and Walker cells affects most of the north-northeast of South America, which inhibited the convective activity associated to the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and caused drought conditions in the rainy seasons of the Guyana, Surinam, French Guyana, center-east of the Amazon and most of the Northeast Brazil. On the other hand, conditions of excess of precipitation observed in the south-southeast of South America, were favored by the anomalous ascending branch of the Hadley cell. During La Nina events (1984-85 and 1988-89), it was observed an intensification of the ascending and descending branches associated to the Walker and Hadley cells. The anomalous large-scale ascending movement associated to these cells, was extended to the Northeast of Brazil and equatorial South Atlantic, favoring ITCZ to become more active than the normal, which resulted in an above normal rainy season in these areas. An intense subsidence was noticed in the mid latitudes of South America, which inhibited the large-scale convection in the region, explaining the deficient rainy season observed in most of the south-southeast of South America. [Spanish] Los cambios en las celulas de Hadley y Walker y sus respectivos impactos en Suramerica, en las lluvias, durante los episodios en ENOS, observados en la decada de los 80, son investigados a traves de analisis de reacciones cruzadas de la circulacion atmosferica en altitudes promediadas en planos zonal y meridional. Tales celulas de gran escala

  10. Aerosol-climate interactions over southern Africa: the ENSO signal and interannual variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tummon, Fiona

    2010-05-01

    Southern Africa is a region that experiences high interannual climatic variability. It is also a region that, in general is poorly developed, has a high population growth rate and is at times politically unstable. As a whole, the region is extremely vulnerable to climatic changes, with a large proportion of the population depending on rain-fed agriculture as a source of income and subsistence. It is well known that the El-Nino/La-Nina oscillation contributes significantly to the climate variability over much of southern Africa; with El-Nino years generally being dry and warm in the southeastern parts and unusually wet in the eastern equatorial regions, whilst La-Nina years are generally wet and cool in the southeast, but dry in the eastern tropics. This in turn effects vegetation growth, and as a result the extent of biomass burning in the following dry season; with above-average wet seasons leading to increased burning, and drier than average seasons being followed by less extensive burning. The savannas of Africa experience some of the most extensive burning in the world, and contribute a very significant portion of the aerosol loading over southern Africa during the dry austral winter season, from June through October. At present, however, the climatic impact of aerosols over southern Africa is poorly understood, particularly in terms of the interannual variability of these impacts. The regional climate model RegCM3 is used to investigate the climatic impacts of the aerosol burden over southern African further, with particular focus on interannual variability and the role of ENSO. Preliminary results indicate that the impacts of the direct and semi-direct aerosol-effects on regional temperature, precipitation and circulation patterns vary between dry (El-Nino) and wet (La-Nina) years. There is a strong seasonality to these effects, with significant impacts occurring only during the austral winter, when biomass burning peaks throughout the southern Africa

  11. Abrupt ENSO Changes Over the Last 15,000 Years: Inferences From Peru Margin Organic Biomarker Records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makou, M. C.; Eglinton, T. I.; Oppo, D. W.; Hughen, K. A.

    2006-12-01

    Multi-molecular stratigraphic records developed from Peru Margin sediments (ODP Site 1228D; 11°S, 252 m) provide information about changes in upwelling and ENSO variability over the last 15 ka. Parallel records of molecular marker lipids derived from algal, bacterial, and terrestrial vascular plant sources were generated via gas chromatography coupled with time-of-flight mass spectrometry, which enables facile yet thorough investigation of the multiple lines of information embedded in the organic sedimentary record. The study site is located within the eastern tropical Pacific upwelling zone, and is thus well situated to directly monitor changes in El Niño strength over time. Factor analysis provided the means to identify distinct modes of variability within the broad array of biomarker records generated, and was employed to identify target compounds that could be used to investigate changes in environmental variables. In particular, dinosterol and cholesterol were used to infer changes in El Niño and La Niña strength, respectively, through the effects of these climate phenomena on productivity and upwelling. The dinosterol record suggests reduced El Niño strength from 12.9 to about 6.5 ka (pending age verification), at which point it increased abruptly, marking the resurgence of robust El Niño conditions in the Holocene. The remainder of the record from the 6.5 ka abrupt transition to the present was punctuated by further high-amplitude variability. The cholesterol abundance record varies in parallel with that of dinosterol, suggesting stronger (weaker) regional upwelling during periods of enhanced (reduced) El Niño conditions, consistent with a concurrent increase (decrease) in La Niña strength. The paired biomarker records imply that El Niño and La Niña varied in concert over the last 15 ka, rather than acting as shifting end-member states of tropical Pacific climate. By this hypothesis, ENSO variability as a whole was moderately enhanced in the early

  12. Influence of ENSO on Regional Indian Summer Monsoon Precipitation—Local Atmospheric Influences or Remote Influence from Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Indrani Roy

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Using CMIP5 model outputs in different El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO phases, this work investigates the indicator that could be used as an Index to characterise regional Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM precipitation. Dividing the Indian subcontinent into five arbitrarily chosen regions, viz. Central North East (CNE (18°N–31°N, 86°E–75°E, Hilly (H (28°N–38°N, 85°E–70°E, North West (NW (21°N–31°N, 79°E–67°E, North East (NE (21°N–31°N, 86°E–97°E and Southern India (S (18°N–7°N, 73°E–85°E, local wind field and remote influences from the tropical Pacific are considered to improve understanding of regional monsoon rainfall. Results are also compared with observations/reanalysis data to pinpoint areas of shortcomings and agreements. Model results suggest that regional wind velocity, viz. meridional wind component (V at 850 mb level (V850 and zonal component at 200 mb (U200 and 850 mb (U850 can yield better estimation of local precipitation in regions CNE, H and NW, agreeing well with earlier proposed monsoon Indices. Such observations are independent of different subcategories of ENSO phases and models show good correspondence with observations. Analyses with V at 200 mb (V200 indicate circulation of the upper branch of Hadley cells in regions CNE and S, though suggest the best agreement among models in comparison with other fields, but there are some deviations from observations, indicating a missing mechanism in the models. Using models, this study identified the best parameter in different regions that could be used for the regional monsoon Index, irrespective of various ENSO subcategories; for CNE it is the U200, for H it is U200 and U850, and for NW it is U850. The current analysis, however, fails to indicate anything clearly about the NE region. When focusing on the remote influence from the eastern Pacific region, it is found that atmospheric contribution to regional ISM precipitation fails to indicate

  13. Statistical Modeling of Effects of ENSO on the Intensity, Duration and Frequency of Hot Spells in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mondal, A.; Mujumdar, P.

    2013-12-01

    Global climate change is expected to intensify climate and weather extremes which can cause significant societal impacts through interactions with existing human and natural systems. A comprehensive statistical study of such extreme events is thus necessary; at the same time, such a study is challenging since extreme events are rare by definition. The theoretical foundation of the statistical extreme value theory (EVT) and the recent advances in it that allow incorporating temporal trends in modelling the extreme values have rarely been explored for modelling hot spells and heat waves. Hot spells and heat waves are particularly significant for a warm country like India, and natural climate variability modes like the ENSO are reported to be associated with extreme temperature indices in the Indian region. We attempt to model the non-stationary effects of ENSO on the intensity, duration and frequency of hot spells in the summer season, at 1 degree x 1 degree lat-lon grids over India. In the threshold exceedence model that we employ, the intensity and frequency of hot spells are modeled by a Poisson-Generalized Pareto (Poisson-GP) model, and the spell lengths are modeled by a Geometric distribution. Average sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly time series over the NINO3.4 region, which is the ENSO index here, and annual cycles in time are considered as covariates in each of the distributions. Hot spells are defined as the time period when the daily maximum temperature is above a chosen threshold, and they are separated by at least one day when the daily maximum temperature falls below the threshold. The occurrence of hot spells is assumed to be a Poisson process and the maximum of each hot spell is taken as the intensity, which is modeled by the Generalized Pareto (GP) distribution. Trends in the Poisson and Geometric distributions are introduced through a generalized linear model (GLM) framework. Significance of trends in the parameters of the distributions due to

  14. Co-evolution of monsoonal precipitation in East Asia and the tropical Pacific ENSO system since 2.36 Ma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Zhaojie

    2017-04-01

    Clay mineralogical analysis and scanning electron microscope (SEM) analysis were performed on deep-sea sediments cored on the Benham Rise (core MD06-3050) in order to reconstruct long-term evolution of East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) rainfall in the period since 2.36 Ma. Clay mineralogical variations are due to changes in the ratios of smectite, which derive from weathering of volcanic rocks in Luzon Island during intervals of intensive monsoon rainfall, and illite- and chlorite-rich dusts, which are transported from East Asia by winds associated with the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM). Since Luzon is the main source of smectite to the Benham Rise, long-term consistent variations in the smectite/(illite + chlorite) ratio in core MD06-3050 as well as ODP site 1146 in the Northern South China Sea suggest that minor contributions of eolian dust played a role in the variability of this mineralogical ratio and indicate strengthening EASM precipitation in SE Asia during time intervals from 2360 to 1900 kyr, 1200 to 600 kyr, and after 200 kyr. The EASM rainfall record displays a 30 kyr periodicity suggesting the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). These intervals of rainfall intensification on Luzon Island are coeval with a reduction in precipitation over central China and an increase in zonal SST gradient in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, implying a reinforcement of La Niña-like conditions. In contrast, periods of reduced rainfall on Luzon Island are associated with higher precipitation in central China and a weakening zonal SST gradient in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, thereby suggesting the development of dominant El Niño-like conditions. Our study, therefore, highlights for the first time a long-term temporal and spatial co-evolution of monsoonal precipitation in East Asia and of the tropical Pacific ENSO system over the past 2.36 Ma.

  15. Effects of the El Niño--Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle on mosquito populations in southern California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heft, David E; Walton, William E

    2008-06-01

    The abundance and species composition of adult mosquitoes collected by carbon dioxide-baited suction traps and gravid traps in western Los Angeles County, CA, were compared before and during a strong El Niño--Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle from December 1996 until November 1999. Following El Niño conditions in the winter 1997-1998, adult host-seeking mosquito abundance during spring was twice that observed during spring 1997 and species composition favored cool-weather mosquitoes such as Culiseta incidens and Culex tarsalis. The comparatively cool temperatures from early April until early June and increased rainfall of the 1998 El Niño negatively affected warm-weather mosquitoes such as Culex quinquefasciatus that inhabit eutrophic habitats such as urban storm drains. Gravid mosquito abundance during the early summer following El Niño conditions also increased 2- to 3-fold relative to 1997, but gravid mosquito species composition was not significantly affected by ENSO cycles, reflecting an inherent bias of gravid traps to collect predominantly Cx. quinquefasciatus. Relative to spring 1997, host-seeking and gravid mosquito abundances were reduced 3- to 7-fold from March until June 1999 under the comparatively dry La Niña conditions. The increased abundance and prolonged host-seeking activity of Cx. tarsalis during the spring and early summer following a strong El Niño may have a significant impact on public health in urban southern California because this mosquito is an important arbovirus vector and constructed wetlands in urban areas may increase suitable, comparatively permanent developmental sites for important mosquito vectors such as Cx. tarsalis that are usually rare in urban environments.

  16. Oscilaciones de la red de nitruros cúbicos

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dario G. Santiago-Pérez

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available En el trabajo se estudia la dinámica de los nitruros del grupo III en la estructura blenda de zinc utilizando el modelo de cadenas lineales. Utilizando el hecho de que en direcciones de alta simetría las ramas longitudinales de desacoplan de las transversales se reportan las relaciones entre las constantes de fuerza del problema tridimensional (3D y de la cadena lineal equivalente en estas direcciones. También mostramos cómo calcular las constantes de fuerza 3D del masivo (y consecuentemente la matriz dinámica en su totalidad a partir de unos pocos puntos experimentales o teóricos. En particular se determinan las relaciones de dispersión y se calculan las constantes de fuerza de nitruros de Aluminio (AlN y Galio (GaN.

  17. Un análisis de la estructura termal de la estación costera 'La Libertad' y su relación con los eventos ENSO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available ANALYSE DE LA STRUCTURE THERMIQUE DE L’OCEAN A LA STATION «LA LIBERTAD» ET DE SA RELATION AVEC L’ENSO. L’Institut Océanographique Militaire (INOCAR assure tous les 20 jours, depuis 1990, des mesures dans une colonne d’eau de 100 m de profondeur, à dix milles au large du port équatorien de La Libertad, situé dans la Péninsule de Santa Helena. On y observe des ondes équatoriales qui provoquent une augmentation du niveau moyen de l’eau et un enfoncement des isothermes, ce qui permet de considérer que leur distribution est liée à l’apparition des événements ENSO. Nous avons déterminé par ailleurs la relation entre le niveau moyen de l’océan et la profondeur des isothermes. Pour cela nous avons choisi l’isotherme de 20°C que l’on supposera représentative de la distribution thermique (de l’océan dans cette station côtière. El Instituto Oceanográfico de la Armada (INOCAR mantiene desde 1990 hasta la fecha una estación costera a 10 millas náuticas frente a las costa del puerto de La Libertad (Península de Santa Elena, en la que se efectúa un muestreo de toda la columna de agua desde la superficie hasta los 100 m de profundidad, cada 20 días. Del análisis preliminar se ha podido observar que la distribución de las isotermas responde a la presencia de los eventos ENSO como se conoce, durante un episodio ENSO la costa del Ecuador es visitada por ondas ecuatoriales, las cuales a su paso producen una elevación del nivel medio del mar y una profundización de las isotermas. Por lo que se considera que esta distribución de las isotermas guarda relación con la ocurrencia de los eventos ENSO frente a nuestras costas. Por otro lado se determina la relación existente entre el nivel del mar y la profundización de las isotermas. Para este efecto, se simplificó la distribución térmica de la estación costera de La Libertad, seleccionando la isoterma de 20°C, por considerarla representativa de la distribución t

  18. PDO Modulation of ENSO Effect on Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification in the Western North Pacific: a View from the Perspective of Atmospheric Dynamic Conditions and its Implication in the Future Projection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, H.; Wang, X.

    2016-02-01

    This study investigates how the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) modulates the effect of El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on tropical cyclone rapid intensification (RI) in the western North Pacific. The analysis shows that the interannual relationship between ENSO and annual RI number in warm PDO phases is strong and statistically significant. In cold PDO phases, however, there is no significant correlation between ENSO and RI on the interannual timescale. The enhancement of the interannual ENSO-RI relationship in warm PDO phases is mainly attributable to the change of the atmospheric dynamic condition: vertical wind shear. The PDO in warm (cold) phases can strengthen (weaken) an El Nino event to increase (reduce) the effects of the warm pool of water over the equatorial Pacific in typhoon season by local diabatic heating. El Nino events are accompanied by the stronger Walker circulation in the equatorial Pacific in the warm PDO phase than in the cold PDO phase. In contrast, the Walker circulation pattern and amplitude associated with La Nina events is less affected by the alternate PDO phase. This tends to make the atmospheric response to ENSO stronger (weaker) in warm (cold) PDO phase, and so is the atmospheric teleconnection of ENSO. The role of atmospheric conditions on tropical cylone intensification in the future projection is further discussed.

  19. Proxy Records of the Indonesian Low and the El Ni{tilde n}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from Stable Isotope Measurements of Indonesian Reef Corals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moore, M.D.

    1995-12-31

    The Earth`s largest atmospheric convective center is the Indonesian Low. It generates the Australasian monsoon, drives the zonal tropospheric Walker Circulation, and is implicated in the genesis of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The long-term variability of the Indonesian Low is poorly characterized, yet such information is crucial for evaluating whether changes in the strength and frequency of ENSO events are a possible manifestation of global warming. Stable oxygen isotope ratios ({delta}{sup 18}O) in shallow-water reef coral skeletons track topical convective activity over hundreds of years because the input of isotopically-depleted rainwater dilutes seawater {delta}{sup 18}O. Corals also impose a temperature-dependent fractionation on {delta}{sup 18}O, but where annual rainfall is high and sea surface temperature (SST) variability is low the freshwater flux effect dominates.

  20. Changes in El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions during the Greenland Stadial 1 (GS-1) chronozone revealed by New Zealand tree-rings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmer, Jonathan G.; Turney, Chris S. M.; Cook, Edward R.; Fenwick, Pavla; Thomas, Zoë; Helle, Gerhard; Jones, Richard; Clement, Amy; Hogg, Alan; Southon, John; Bronk Ramsey, Christopher; Staff, Richard; Muscheler, Raimund; Corrège, Thierry; Hua, Quan

    2016-12-01

    The warming trend at the end of the last glacial was disrupted by rapid cooling clearly identified in Greenland (Greenland Stadial 1 or GS-1) and Europe (Younger Dryas Stadial or YD). This reversal to glacial-like conditions is one of the best known examples of abrupt change but the exact timing and global spatial extent remain uncertain. Whilst the wider Atlantic region has a network of high-resolution proxy records spanning GS-1, the Pacific Ocean suffers from a scarcity of sub-decadally resolved sequences. Here we report the results from an investigation into a tree-ring chronology from northern New Zealand aimed at addressing the paucity of data. The conifer tree species kauri (Agathis australis) is known from contemporary studies to be sensitive to regional climate changes. An analysis of a 'historic' 452-year kauri chronology confirms a tropical-Pacific teleconnection via the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We then focus our study on a 1010-year sub-fossil kauri chronology that has been precisely dated by comprehensive radiocarbon dating and contains a striking ring-width downturn between ∼12,500 and 12,380 cal BP within GS-1. Wavelet analysis shows a marked increase in ENSO-like periodicities occurring after the downturn event. Comparison to low- and mid-latitude Pacific records suggests a coherency with ENSO and Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation change during this period. The driver(s) for this climate event remain unclear but may be related to solar changes that subsequently led to establishment and/or increased expression of ENSO across the mid-latitudes of the Pacific, seemingly independent of the Atlantic and polar regions.

  1. Assessment of hurricane's effect on the upper mixed layer of the southwestern Mexican Pacific during ENSO 1997-1998: in situ and satellite observations

    OpenAIRE

    Raúl Aguirre-Gómez; Olivia Salmerón-García

    2015-01-01

    Using data from closely spaced CTD profiles and satellite imagery we investigated the effect of hurricane Rick on the sea surface temperature (SST) and the upper mixed layer of the southwestern Mexican Pacific coast. Effects of ENSO 1997-1998 in this region are also discussed by analysing SST maps. Coincident hydrographic measurements were carried out during an oceanographic campaign over the area in November 1997. Results revealed an increment of SST between 3 to 4°C above the climatological...

  2. Effects of the 2015/16 ENSO event on tropical trees in regrowing secondary forests in Central Panama

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bretfeld, M.; Ewers, B. E.; Hall, J. S.; Ogden, F. L.

    2016-12-01

    The 2015/16 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event ranks amongst the driest and hottest periods on record in Panama, with severe drought conditions reported for over 90% of the country. A predicted long-term transition into a drier climatic period makes this event an ideal opportunity to study the effects of drought on tropical tree species in secondary forests of central Panama. These forests are associated with desirable hydrological ecosystem services, characterized by reduced peak runoff during high precipitation events in the rainy season and increased base flow during the dry season ("sponge-effect"), making these forest invaluable for water provisioning for the Panama Canal's $2 billion business and Panama's thriving capital city. Starting in February 2015, we installed heat-ratio sap flow sensors in 76 trees (representing 42 different species) in secondary forests of three different ages (8, 25, and 80+ years) in the 15 km2 Agua Salud study area, located in the Panama Canal Watershed. Within each site, trees were selected to represent local tree size distribution. Additional sensors were installed on the roots of a subset of trees. Sap flow data were logged every 30 minutes and soil moisture was measured every 3 minutes at 10, 30, 50, and 100 cm depth. Pre-dawn, mid-day, and pre-dusk leaf water potentials were measured during the dry season (March 2016) and rainy season (July 2016). Meteorological data were taken from a nearby met-station ("Celestino"). Primary drivers of transpiration were vapor pressure deficit and solar radiation. Trees of the 25 and 80+ year old forests appear not water limited during the dry season following ENSO while reduced sap flow rates of trees in the 8 year old forest are indicative of a regulatory response to the drought. Younger understory trees in the 80+ year old forest showed no signs of a drought response. Throughout most of the dry season, volumetric water content at 30 and 50 cm depths was 8% lower in the 8 year old

  3. Microplankton biomass and diversity in the Vietnamese upwelling area during SW monsoon under normal conditions and after an ENSO event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loick-Wilde, Natalie; Bombar, Deniz; Doan, Hai Nhu; Nguyen, Lam Ngoc; Nguyen-Thi, Anh Mai; Voss, Maren; Dippner, Joachim W.

    2017-04-01

    Investigating microplankton biomass and diversity under different climatological conditions is key to the understanding of cascading effects of climate change on nutrient cycles and biological productivity. Here we have used data collected during two contrasting summers along the coast of Viet Nam to show how climatological-driven changes can have a significant influence on the distribution of microplankton communities and their biomass via its impact on nutrient concentrations in the water column. The first summer in July 2003 followed a weak El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event and was characterized by weak coastal upwelling, in the second summer during July 2004, upwelling was normal. Very low silicate (SiO4) concentrations and SiO4:DIN ratios characterized the source water mass for upwelling in July 2004, and dynamic SiO4 to dissolved inorganic nitrogen ratios (SiO4:DIN) mainly below the Redfield-Brzezinski ratio and DIN to phosphate ratios (DIN:PO43-) below the Redfield ratio were a common feature off Viet Nam. Much higher particle concentrations and PSi/PC ratios during normal upwelling revealed major changes in the microplankton community structure among summers. Small dinoflagellates (10-20 μm) prevailed ubiquitously during reduced upwelling. During normal upwelling, the diatom Rhizosolenia sp. dominated the cell-carbon biomass in the silicate poor upwelling waters. Trichodesmium erythraeum dominated in the Mekong-influenced and nutrient depleted offshore waters, where it co-occurred with Rhizosolenia sp. Both species were directly associated with the much higher primary production (PP) and N2 fixation rates that were quantified in earlier studies, as well as with much higher diversities at these offshore sites. Along the coast, the correlation between Rhizosolenia sp. and PP rates was less clear and the factors regulating the biomass of Rhizosolenia sp. in the upwelling waters are discussed. The very low silicate concentrations in the source water

  4. Inter-annual precipitation variabiity inferred from late Holocene speleothem records from Fiji: implications for SPCZ localisation and ENSO behaviour

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mattey, D.; Stephens, M.; Hoffmann, D.; Brett, M.

    2015-12-01

    The modern tropical Fiji climate is characterised by seasonal rainfall controlled by the position of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). Interannual rainfall is strongly modulated on decadal timescales by ENSO with higher rainfall associated with La Nina events. Voli Voli cave near Sigatoga (Viti Levu) is a stream passage that has been monitored since 2009. A U-Th dated laminated speleothem spans a 1500 year interval across the transition from the Medieval Warm Period into the Little Ice Age marked by a fabric change from finely laminated calcite with thin clay layers, to white well-laminated calcite. The older record is characterised by rising δ13C values followed by a rapid decrease in δ13C around 1200 AD. Evidence from cave monitoring shows that cave air CO2 levels are strongly seasonal as a result of greater ventilation by winter trade winds and high resolution δ13C record shows regularly spaced peaks correlated with paired laminae and cycles in P and S which provide annual markers driven by rainfall and seasonal ventilation. δ18O values remain relatively unchanged throughout the record but micromilling at sub-annual resolution reveals systematic cycles in δ18O that span groups of paired laminae with an inferred periodicity of 3-7 years i.e. a similar frequency to modern ENSO. The presence of these sub-decadal cycles in δ18O may be a result of a combination of factors. The amplitude of 2-3‰ would be equivalent to an amount-effect related change in annual precipitation of around 50% but an additional smoothing process, perhaps a result of aquifer storage, is required to attenuate interannual variance in precipitation. The Voli Voli record provides evidence of an underlying climatic change to more frequent La Niña conditions from 1200 AD and may be associated with increased conflict, shifts in settlements and changes in subsistence strategies on the island. Coeval speleothem isotope records from tropical Pacific Islands provide a provide a

  5. Interannual variability in chlorophyll-a on the southern Queensland continental shelf and its relationship to ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tran, Dien V.; Gabric, Albert; Cropp, Roger

    2015-12-01

    Coastal phytoplankton blooms can result from upwelling of colder nutrient-rich water, seasonal fluvial or anthropogenic point sources of nutrient. Here we analyze 15-year time series of monthly mean and 8-day satellite-derived chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) and sea surface temperature (SST) on the southern Queensland continental shelf (24.25-28.25°S) from March 2000 to February 2015. We examine the interannual variability in these parameters and its relationship to algal bloom dynamics. Seasonal climatological means are computed and analyzed. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is applied to these time series. Cross-correlation and spatial correlation analyses are used to investigate the relationship between the multivariate ENSO index (MEI), Chl-a and SST. Computed eigenvectors of the time series of Chl-a and SST present a strong seasonal variability on the first EOF modes. Thus, the seasonal variability was removed by computing monthly and 8-day Chl-a and SST anomalies. The EOF analysis was then applied to the anomaly time series. Correlation analysis results show a positive correlation between MEI and the eigenvector of the first EOF of the monthly Chl-a anomaly with time lag of three to four months. We find a negative correlation between MEI and the eigenvector of the second EOF of the monthly Chl-a anomaly with time lag of three to four months. There is no correlation between MEI and eigenvectors of the monthly SST anomaly. There are significant correlations between eigenvectors of the first and second EOF modes of 8-day Chl-a and the first and second EOF modes of 8-day SST respectively. Negative correlation coefficients between 8-day anomalies of Chl-a and SST are found on the continental shelf to the east of Fraser Island and Stradbroke Island. Analysis of a particular algal bloom event indicates a negative SST anomaly and negative curl of wind stress in the waters to the southeast of Fraser Island suggesting that wind stress is possibly a secondary but

  6. An annually laminated stalagmite record of precipitation in spring persistent rains region over SE China and its relationship to ENSO and PDO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Haiwei; Cheng, Hai; Spötl, Christoph; Kathayat, Gayatri

    2017-04-01

    The spring persistent rains (SPR) over Jiangnan area in southerastern China are a unique synoptic and climatic phenomenon, it is another rainy period besides East Asian tropical summer monsoon over East Asia. Studies show that the annual to decadal variability of precipitation in SPR region mainly influenced by the summer monsoon is correlated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). We present a 190 year, seasonally resolved stalagmite δ18O record from E'mei cave in southeastern China that exhibits a significant correlation with ENSO, PDO, and western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) variability. In SPR region, spring (March-May) rainfall amount accounts for about 40% of annual rainfall amount, which is roughly equivalent to summer (June-September) rainfall amount, but the δ18O value of spring rainfall is more positive than that of summer rainfall. Accordingly, we suggest that δ18O of stalagmite in SPR region is mainly influenced by the ratio of summer monsoon amount/non-summer monsoon amount at annual to decadal scale. Comparisons between δ18O series and ENSO, PDO, and WPSH index show that, during El Niño phase or positive PDO phase, the WPSH becomes strong, and subsequently extend southwestward, the summer monsoon rainfall in SPR region decreases but non-summer monsoon rainfall increases, which results in the heavier oxygen isotope in annual precipitation, and subsequently in the stalagmite; and vice versa. However, this relation has weakened during the past two decades.

  7. The dependence on atmospheric resolution of ENSO and related East Asian-western North Pacific summer climate variability in a coupled model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Bo; Zhao, Guijie; Huang, Gang; Wang, Pengfei; Yan, Bangliang

    2017-08-01

    The authors present results for El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and East Asian-western North Pacific climate variability simulated in a new version high-resolution coupled model (ICM.V2) developed at the Center for Monsoon System Research of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (CMSR, IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences. The analyses are based on the last 100-year output of a 1000-year simulation. Results are compared to an earlier version of the same coupled model (ICM.V1), reanalysis, and observations. The two versions of ICM have similar physics but different atmospheric resolution. The simulated climatological mean states show marked improvement over many regions, especially the tropics in ICM.V2 compared to those in ICM.V1. The common bias in the cold tongue has reduced, and the warm biases along the ocean boundaries have improved as well. With improved simulation of ENSO, including its period and strength, the ENSO-related western North Pacific summer climate variability becomes more realistic compared to the observations. The simulated East Asian summer monsoon anomalies in the El Niño decaying summer are substantially more realistic in ICM.V2, which might be related to a better simulation of the Indo-Pacific Ocean capacitor (IPOC) effect and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO).

  8. Assessing the roles of temperature, precipitation, and ENSO in dengue re-emergence on the Texas-Mexico border region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunkard, Joan M; Cifuentes, Enrique; Rothenberg, Stephen J

    2008-01-01

    The goal of this study was to assess linkages between microclimate and longer-term ENSO-related weather forcing on the week-to-week changes in dengue prevalence in Matamoros, Tamaulipas, Mexico, over a recent decade of dengue observations. An auto-regressive model to evaluate the role of climatic factors (sea-surface temperature) and weather (maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation) on dengue incidence over the period 1995-2005, was developed by conducting time-series analysis. Dengue incidence increased by 2.6% (95% CI: 0.2-5.1) one week after every 1 degree Celsius increase in weekly maximum temperature and increased 1.9% (95% CI: -0.1-3.9) two weeks after every 1 cm increase in weekly precipitation. Every 1 masculineC increase in sea surface temperatures (El Niño region 3.4 ) was followed by a 19.4% (95% CI: -4.7-43.5) increase in dengue incidence (18 weeks later). Climate and weather factors play a small but significant role in dengue transmission in Matamoros, Mexico. This study may provide baseline information for identifying potential longer-term effects of global climate change on dengue expected in the coming decades. To our knowledge, this is the first study to investigate the potential associations between climate and weather events and dengue incidence in this geographical area.

  9. Trends and ENSO/AAO Driven Variability in NDVI Derived Productivity and Phenology alongside the Andes Mountains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco J. Meza

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Increasing water use and droughts, along with climate variability and land use change, have seriously altered vegetation growth patterns and ecosystem response in several regions alongside the Andes Mountains. Thirty years of the new generation biweekly normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI3g time series data show significant land cover specific trends and variability in annual productivity and land surface phenological response. Productivity is represented by the growing season mean NDVI values (July to June. Arid and semi-arid and sub humid vegetation types (Atacama desert, Chaco and Patagonia across Argentina, northern Chile, northwest Uruguay and southeast Bolivia show negative trends in productivity, while some temperate forest and agricultural areas in Chile and sub humid and humid areas in Brazil, Bolivia and Peru show positive trends in productivity. The start (SOS and length (LOS of the growing season results show large variability and regional hot spots where later SOS often coincides with reduced productivity. A longer growing season is generally found for some locations in the south of Chile (sub-antarctic forest and Argentina (Patagonia steppe, while central Argentina (Pampa-mixed grasslands and agriculture has a shorter LOS. Some of the areas have significant shifts in SOS and LOS of one to several months. The seasonal Multivariate ENSO Indicator (MEI and the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO index have a significant impact on vegetation productivity and phenology in southeastern and northeastern Argentina (Patagonia and Pampa, central and southern Chile (mixed shrubland, temperate and sub-antarctic forest, and Paraguay (Chaco.

  10. Pengaruh ENSO (El Niño and Southern Oscillation terhadap transpor massa air laut di Selat Malaka

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstrak. Penelitian ini mengkaji pengaruh ENSO (El Niño and Southern Oscillation di Selat Malaka dengan memakai indek osilasi selatan Samudera Pasifik dalam menentukan kondisi Normal, El Niño dan La Nina sebagai analisis transpor massa air laut, elevasi muka laut dan densitas laut. Metode penelitian menggunakan persamaan Navier-Stokes dengan gaya pembangkit pasang surut, angin dari National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP Tahun 1980-2007, Salinitas (Levitus dan Boyer, 1994a dan Temperatur (Levitus dan Boyer, 1994b. Persamaan gerak air laut tersebut dimodelkan dengan model Hamburg Shelf Ocean Model (HAMSOM. Hasil-hasil menunjukkan bahwa transpor di bagian barat laut Selat Malaka pergerakannya melemah dan transpor di bagian tenggara pergerakannya menguat dibandingkan pada kondisi tahun Normal dan La Nina. Sedangkan elevasi muka air di Selat Malaka pada kondisi tahun El Niño lebih rendah dibandingkan pada kondisi Normal dan La Nina. Selanjutnya densitas permukaan laut di Selat Malaka pada kondisi tahun Normal, El Niño dan La Nina berkisar 18,5 s/d 20,5 kg/m3. Densitas laut lapisan 30-50 m di Selat Malaka pada kondisi tahun Normal, El Niño dan La Nina berkisar 19 s/d 21 kg/m3. Densitas permukaan laut dan densitas laut kedalaman 30-50 m di bagian tenggara Selat Malaka pada kondisi El Niño lebih besar dibandingkan pada tahun Normal maupun tahun La Nina.

  11. ENSO Effects on Land Skin Temperature Variations: A Global Study from Satellite Remote Sensing and NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henry Bartholomew

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Non-lag and lag correlation coefficients between Niño 3 indices derived from sea-surface temperature (SST anomalies and land surface variables from satellite based Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS data, as well as National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data are analyzed for 2001–2010. Strong positive correlations between January Niño 3 indices and skin temperature (Tskin occur over the northwest USA, western Canada, and southern Alaska, suggesting that an El Niño event is associated with warmer winter temperatures over these regions, consistent with previous studies based on 2 m surface air temperature measurements (Tair. In addition, in January, strong negative correlations exist over central and northern Europe (meaning colder than normal winters with positive correlations present over central Siberia (suggesting warmer than normal winters. Despite the different physical meaning between Tair and Tskin, the general response of the two surface temperatures to changes in ENSO is similar. Nevertheless, satellite observations of Tskin provide more rich information and higher spatial resolution than Tair data.

  12. An Analysis of the Energetics of Tropical and Extra-Tropical Regions for Warm ENSO Composite Episodes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zayra Christine Sátyro

    Full Text Available Abstract This study focuses on the quantification and evaluation of the effects of ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation warm phases, using a composite of five intense El Niño episodes between 1979 – 2011 on the Energetic Lorenz Cycle for four distinct regions around the globe: 80° S – 5° N (region 1, 50° S – 5° N (region 2, 30° S – 5° N (region 3, and 30° S – 30° N (region 4, using Data from NCEP reanalysis-II. Briefly, the results showed that zonal terms of potential energy and kinetic energy were intensified, except for region 1, where zonal kinetic energy weakened. Through the analysis of the period in which higher energy production is observed, a strong communication between the available zonal potential and the zonal kinetic energy reservoirs can be identified. This communication weakened the modes linked to eddies of potential energy and kinetic energy, as well as in the other two baroclinic conversions terms. Furthermore, the results indicate that for all the regions, the system itself works to regain its stable condition.

  13. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO enhances CO2 exchange rates in freshwater Marsh ecosystems in the Florida everglades.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sparkle L Malone

    Full Text Available This research examines the relationships between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO, water level, precipitation patterns and carbon dioxide (CO2 exchange rates in the freshwater wetland ecosystems of the Florida Everglades. Data was obtained over a 5-year study period (2009-2013 from two freshwater marsh sites located in Everglades National Park that differ in hydrology. At the short-hydroperiod site (Taylor Slough; TS and the long-hydroperiod site (Shark River Slough; SRS fluctuations in precipitation patterns occurred with changes in ENSO phase, suggesting that extreme ENSO phases alter Everglades hydrology which is known to have a substantial influence on ecosystem carbon dynamics. Variations in both ENSO phase and annual net CO2 exchange rates co-occurred with changes in wet and dry season length and intensity. Combined with site-specific seasonality in CO2 exchanges rates, El Niño and La Niña phases magnified season intensity and CO2 exchange rates at both sites. At TS, net CO2 uptake rates were higher in the dry season, whereas SRS had greater rates of carbon sequestration during the wet season. As La Niña phases were concurrent with drought years and extended dry seasons, TS became a greater sink for CO2 on an annual basis (-11 to -110 g CO2 m-2 yr-1 compared to El Niño and neutral years (-5 to -43.5 g CO2 m-2 yr-1. SRS was a small source for CO2 annually (1.81 to 80 g CO2 m-2 yr-1 except in one exceptionally wet year that was associated with an El Niño phase (-16 g CO2 m-2 yr-1. Considering that future climate predictions suggest a higher frequency and intensity in El Niño and La Niña phases, these results indicate that changes in extreme ENSO phases will significantly alter CO2 dynamics in the Florida Everglades.

  14. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) enhances CO2 exchange rates in freshwater Marsh ecosystems in the Florida everglades.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malone, Sparkle L; Staudhammer, Christina L; Oberbauer, Steven F; Olivas, Paulo; Ryan, Michael G; Schedlbauer, Jessica L; Loescher, Henry W; Starr, Gregory

    2014-01-01

    This research examines the relationships between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), water level, precipitation patterns and carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange rates in the freshwater wetland ecosystems of the Florida Everglades. Data was obtained over a 5-year study period (2009-2013) from two freshwater marsh sites located in Everglades National Park that differ in hydrology. At the short-hydroperiod site (Taylor Slough; TS) and the long-hydroperiod site (Shark River Slough; SRS) fluctuations in precipitation patterns occurred with changes in ENSO phase, suggesting that extreme ENSO phases alter Everglades hydrology which is known to have a substantial influence on ecosystem carbon dynamics. Variations in both ENSO phase and annual net CO2 exchange rates co-occurred with changes in wet and dry season length and intensity. Combined with site-specific seasonality in CO2 exchanges rates, El Niño and La Niña phases magnified season intensity and CO2 exchange rates at both sites. At TS, net CO2 uptake rates were higher in the dry season, whereas SRS had greater rates of carbon sequestration during the wet season. As La Niña phases were concurrent with drought years and extended dry seasons, TS became a greater sink for CO2 on an annual basis (-11 to -110 g CO2 m-2 yr-1) compared to El Niño and neutral years (-5 to -43.5 g CO2 m-2 yr-1). SRS was a small source for CO2 annually (1.81 to 80 g CO2 m-2 yr-1) except in one exceptionally wet year that was associated with an El Niño phase (-16 g CO2 m-2 yr-1). Considering that future climate predictions suggest a higher frequency and intensity in El Niño and La Niña phases, these results indicate that changes in extreme ENSO phases will significantly alter CO2 dynamics in the Florida Everglades.

  15. Seasonal to Interannual Variability of Satellite-Based Precipitation Estimates in the Pacific Ocean Associated with ENSO from 1998 to 2014

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xueyan Hou

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Based on a widely used satellite precipitation product (TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis 3B43, we analyzed the spatiotemporal variability of precipitation over the Pacific Ocean for 1998–2014 at seasonal and interannual timescales, separately, using the conventional empirical orthogonal function (EOF and investigated the seasonal patterns associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO cycles using season-reliant empirical orthogonal function (SEOF analysis. Lagged correlation analysis was also applied to derive the lead/lag correlations of the first two SEOF modes for precipitation with Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO and two types of El Niño, i.e., central Pacific (CP El Niño and eastern Pacific (EP El Niño. We found that: (1 The first two seasonal EOF modes for precipitation represent the annual cycle of precipitation variations for the Pacific Ocean and the first interannual EOF mode shows the spatiotemporal variability associated with ENSO; (2 The first SEOF mode for precipitation is simultaneously associated with the development of El Niño and most likely coincides with CP El Niño. The second SEOF mode lagged behind ENSO by one year and is associated with post-El Niño years. PDO modulates precipitation variability significantly only when ENSO occurs by strengthening and prolonging the impacts of ENSO; (3 Seasonally evolving patterns of the first two SEOF modes represent the consecutive precipitation patterns associated with the entire development of EP El Niño and the following recovery year. The most significant variation occurs over the tropical Pacific, especially in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ and South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ; (4 Dry conditions in the western basin of the warm pool and wet conditions along the ITCZ and SPCZ bands during the mature phase of El Niño are associated with warm sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific, and a subtropical anticyclone dominating

  16. Holocene climatic variations in the Western Cordillera of Colombia: A multiproxy high-resolution record unravels the dual influence of ENSO and ITCZ

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz, Paula; Gorin, Georges; Parra, Norberto; Velásquez, Cesar; Lemus, Diego; Monsalve-M., Carlos; Jojoa, Marcela

    2017-01-01

    The Páramo de Frontino (3460 m elevation) in Colombia is located approximately halfway between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. It contains a 17 kyr long, stratigraphically continuous sedimentary sequence dated by 30 AMS 14C ages. Our study covers the last 11,500 cal yr and focuses on the biotic (pollen) and abiotic (microfluorescence-X or μXRF) components of this high mountain ecosystem. The pollen record provides a proxy for temperature and humidity with a resolution of 20-35 yr, and μXRF of Ti and Fe is a proxy for rainfall with a sub-annual (ca. 6-month) resolution. Temperature and humidity display rapid and significant changes over the Holocene. The rapid transition from a cold (mean annual temperature (MAT) 3.5 °C lower than today) and wet Younger Dryas to a warm and dry early Holocene is dated at 11,410 cal yr BP. During the Holocene, MAT varied from ca. 2.5 °C below to 3.5° above present-day temperature. Warm periods (11,410-10,700, 9700-6900, 4000-2400 cal yr BP) were separated by colder intervals. The last 2.4 kyr of the record is affected by human impact. The Holocene remained dry until 7500 cal yr BP. Then, precipitations increased to reach a maximum between 5000 and 4500 cal yr BP. A rapid decrease occurred until 3500 cal yr BP and the late Holocene was dry. Spectral analysis of μXRF data show rainfall cyclicity at millennial scale throughout the Holocene, and at centennial down to ENSO scale in more specific time intervals. The highest rainfall intervals correlate with the highest activity of ENSO. Variability in solar output is possibly the main cause for this millennial to decadal cyclicity. We interpret ENSO and ITCZ as the main climate change-driving mechanisms in Frontino. Comparison with high-resolution XRF data from the Caribbean Cariaco Basin (a proxy for rainfall in the coastal Venezuelian cordilleras) demonstrates that climate in Frontino was Pacific-driven (ENSO-dominated) during the YD and early Holocene, whereas it was Atlantic

  17. The Influence of ENSO and Interdecadal Variability on the Frequency of Extreme Precipitation Events in South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, A. M.; Tedeschi, R. G.; Pscheidt, I.

    2006-12-01

    Different phases of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) produce significant impacts on monthly and seasonal precipitation over several regions of South America, as shown by previous studies. This paper examines how El Nino (EN) and La Nina (LN) episodes, as well as interdecadal oscillations, modify the frequency of extreme precipitation events in South America, and the reason for this modification. Gamma distributions are fit to precipitation series for each day of the year, in the period 1956-2002, provided by about 5000 stations all over Brazil. Daily station data are gridded to 1.0 degree to achieve more homogeneous distribution of data. Daily precipitation data are then replaced by their respective percentiles. Extreme events are those with a three-day average percentile above 90. The number of extreme events was computed for each month of each year. Years were classified as EN, LN, and normal years, and the mean frequency of extreme events for each month, within each category of year, is computed. Maps of the difference (and its statistical significance) between these mean frequencies for EN and normal years, and for LN and normal years show that EN and LN episodes influence significantly the frequency of extreme events in several regions in Brazil during certain periods. The relationships between large-scale atmospheric perturbations and variations in the frequency of extreme precipitation events are sought through composites of anomalous atmospheric fields during extreme events in EN and LN episodes, in three regions in which there is significant change in the frequency of these events. The general features of those anomalous fields are similar for extreme events during any category of year (EN, LN or normal). They show the essential ingredients for much precipitation: moisture convergence and mechanisms for lifting the air to the condensation level. In the regions where the frequency of extreme events increases (decreases) the anomaly composites during

  18. An Assessment of Multimodel Simulations for the Variability of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones and Its Association with ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Rongqing; Wang, Hui; Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Kumar, Arun; Li, Weijing; Long, Lindsey N.; Schemm, Jae-Kyung E.; Peng, Peitao; Wang, Wanqiu; Si, Dong; hide

    2016-01-01

    An assessment of simulations of the interannual variability of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific (WNP) and its association with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), as well as a subsequent diagnosis for possible causes of model biases generated from simulated large-scale climate conditions, are documented in the paper. The model experiments are carried out by the Hurricane Work Group under the U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability Research Program (CLIVAR) using five global climate models (GCMs) with a total of 16 ensemble members forced by the observed sea surface temperature and spanning the 28-yr period from 1982 to 2009. The results show GISS and GFDL model ensemble means best simulate the interannual variability of TCs, and the multimodel ensemble mean (MME) follows. Also, the MME has the closest climate mean annual number of WNP TCs and the smallest root-mean-square error to the observation. Most GCMs can simulate the interannual variability of WNP TCs well, with stronger TC activities during two types of El Niño-namely, eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Niño-and weaker activity during La Niña. However, none of the models capture the differences in TC activity between EP and CP El Niño as are shown in observations. The inability of models to distinguish the differences in TC activities between the two types of El Niño events may be due to the bias of the models in response to the shift of tropical heating associated with CP El Niño.

  19. Variation characteristics and influences of climate factors on aridity index and its association with AO and ENSO in northern China from 1961 to 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Kexin; Qian, Xiaoqing; Liu, Puxing; Xu, Yihong; Cao, Liguo; Hao, Yongpei; Dai, Shengpei

    2017-10-01

    Analyses of the variation characteristics for aridity index (AI) can further enhance the understanding of climate change and have effect on hydrology and agriculture. In this paper, based on the data of 283 standard meteorological stations, the temporal-spatial variations and the influences of climate factors on AI were investigated and the relationship between AI and two climate indices (the Arctic Oscillation (AO); El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)) were also assessed in northern China (NC) during the period from 1961 to 2012. The results revealed that the annual mean AI decreased at the rate of -0.031 per decade in the past 52 years and the trend was statistically significant at the 0.01 level. The Mann-Kendall (M-K) test presented that the percentages of stations with positive trends and negative trends for AI were 10 and 81.9 % (22.6 % statistically significant), respectively. Spatially, in the western part of 100° E, the extremely dry area declined and the climate tended to become wet obviously. In the eastern part of 100° E, dry area moved toward the east and the south, which resulted in the enhancement of semiarid area and the shrinkage of subhumid area. The contributions of sunshine duration and precipitation to the decline of AI are more than those of other meteorological variables in NC. Moreover, the average temperature has risen significantly and AI decreased in NC, which indicated the existence of "paradox." Relationship between climate indices (AO and ENSO) and AI demonstrated that the influence of ENSO on AI overweight the AO on AI in NC.

  20. The leading mode of observed and CMIP5 ENSO-residual sea surface temperatures and associated changes in Indo-Pacific climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, Christopher C.; Hoell. Andrew,

    2015-01-01

    SSTs in the western Pacific Ocean have tracked closely with CMIP5 simulations despite recent hiatus cooling in the eastern Pacific. This paper quantifies these similarities and associated circulation and precipitation variations using the first global 1900–2012 ENSO-residual empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of 35 variables: observed SSTs; 28 CMIP5 SST simulations; Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) 25-, 70-, and 171-m ocean temperatures and sea surface heights (SSHs); and Twentieth Century Reanalysis, version 2 (20CRv2), surface winds and precipitation.

  1. An early onset of ENSO influence in the extra-tropics of the southwest Pacific inferred from a 14, 600 year high resolution multi-proxy record from Paddy's Lake, northwest Tasmania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, Kristen K.; Fletcher, Michael-Shawn; Gadd, Patricia S.; Heijnis, Henk; Jacobsen, Geraldine E.

    2017-02-01

    Tropical El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important influence on natural systems and cultural change across the Pacific Ocean basin. El Niño events result in negative moisture anomalies in the southwest Pacific and are implicated in droughts and catastrophic wildfires across eastern Australia. An amplification of tropical El Niño activity is reported in the east Pacific after ca. 6.7 ka; however, proxy data for ENSO-driven environmental change in Australia suggest an initial influence only after ca. 5 ka. Here, we reconstruct changes in vegetation, fire activity and catchment dynamics (e.g. erosion) over the last 14.6 ka from part of the southwest Pacific in which ENSO is the main control of interannual hydroclimatic variability: Paddy's Lake, in northwest Tasmania (1065 masl), Australia. Our multi-proxy approach includes analyses of charcoal, pollen, geochemistry and radioactive isotopes. Our results reveal a high sensitivity of the local and regional vegetation to climatic change, with an increase of non-arboreal pollen between ca. 14.6-13.3 ka synchronous with the Antarctic Cold Reversal, and a sensitivity of the local vegetation and fire activity to ENSO variability recorded in the tropical east Pacific through the Holocene. We detect local-scale shifts in vegetation, fire and sediment geochemistry at ca. 6.3, 4.8 and 3.4 ka, simultaneous with increases in El Niño activity in the tropical Pacific. Finally, we observe a fire-driven shift in vegetation from a pyrophobic association dominated by rainforest elements to a pyrogenic association dominated by sclerophyllous taxa following a prolonged (>1 ka) phase of tropical ENSO-amplification and a major local fire event at ca. 3.4 ka. Our results reveal the following key insights: (1) that ENSO has been a persistent modulator of southwest Pacific climate and fire activity through the Holocene; (2) that the climate of northwest Tasmania is sensitive to long-term shifts in tropical ENSO variability; and

  2. The impact of the 2015-2016 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event on greenhouse gas exchange and surface energy budget in an Indonesian oil palm plantation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stiegler, Christian; Meijide, Ana; June, Tania; Knohl, Alexander

    2017-04-01

    The 2015-2016 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event was one of the strongest observed in the last 20 years. Oil palm plantations cover a large fraction of tropical lowlands in Southeast Asia but despite their growing areal extent, measurements and observations of greenhouse gas exchange and surface energy balance are still scarce. In addition, the effects of extreme events such as ENSO on carbon sequestration and the partitioning of surface energy balance components are widely unknown. In this study, we use micrometeorological measurements located in commercial oil palm plantations in the Jambi province (Sumatra, Indonesia) to assess the impact of the 2015-2016 ENSO event and severe forest fires on greenhouse gas exchange and surface energy budget. Continuous measurements are in operation since July 2013 and we assess turbulent fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2), water vapour and sensible heat using the eddy covariance technique before, during and after the 2015-2016 ENSO event. In the beginning of the ENSO event, the area experienced a strong drought with decreasing soil moisture, increasing air and surface temperatures, and strong atmospheric vapour pressure deficit. During the peak of the drought from August to October 2015, hundreds of forest fires in the area resulted in strong smoke production, decreasing incoming solar radiation by 35% compared to pre-ENSO values and diffuse radiation became almost the sole shortwave radiation flux. During the beginning of the drought, carbon uptake of the oil palm plantation was around 2.1 gC m-2 d-1 and initially increased by 50% due to clear-sky conditions and high incoming photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) but increasing density of smoke turned the oil palm plantation into a source of carbon. The turbulent heat fluxes experienced an increase in sensible heat fluxes due to drought conditions at the cost of latent heat fluxes resulting in an increase in the midday Bowen-ratio from 0.17 to 0.40. Strong smoke

  3. Phenological patterns of Spodoptera Guenée, 1852 (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) is more affected by ENSO than seasonal factors and host plant availability in a Brazilian Savanna

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piovesan, Mônica; Specht, Alexandre; Carneiro, Eduardo; Paula-Moraes, Silvana Vieira; Casagrande, Mirna Martins

    2017-09-01

    The identification of factors responsible for the population dynamics is fundamental for pest management, since losses can reach 18% of annual production. Besides regular seasonal environmental factors and crop managements, additional supra-annual meteorological phenomena can also affect population dynamics, although its relevance has been rarely investigated. Among crop pests, Spodoptera stands out due to its worldwide distribution, high degree of polyphagy, thus causing damages in several crops in the world. Aiming to distinguish the relevance of different factors shaping population dynamics of Spodoptera in an ecosystem constituted of dry and rainy seasons, the current study used circular statistics to identify phenological patterns and test if its population fluctuation is driven by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effect, seasonal meteorological parameters, and/or host plant availability. Samplings were done in an intercropping system, in the Brazilian Savanna, during the new moon cycles between July/2013 and June/2016. Species were recorded all year round, but demonstrated differently non-uniform distribution, being concentrated in different seasons of the year. Population fluctuations were mostly affected by the ENSO intensity, despite the contrasting seasonal meteorological variation or host plant availability in a 400-m radius. Studies involving the observation of supra-annual phenomena, although rare, reach similar conclusions in relation to Neotropical insect fauna. Therefore, it is paramount to have long-term sampling studies to obtain a more precise response of the pest populations towards the agroecosystem conditions.

  4. Verification of an ENSO-Based Long-Range Prediction of Anomalous Weather Conditions During the Vancouver 2010 Olympics and Paralympics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mo, Ruping; Joe, Paul I.; Doyle, Chris; Whitfield, Paul H.

    2014-01-01

    A brief review of the anomalous weather conditions during the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games and the efforts to predict these anomalies based on some preceding El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signals are presented. It is shown that the Olympic Games were held under extraordinarily warm conditions in February 2010, with monthly mean temperature anomalies of +2.2 °C in Vancouver and +2.8 °C in Whistler, ranking respectively as the highest and the second highest in the past 30 years (1981-2010). The warm conditions continued, but became less anomalous, in March 2010 for the Paralympic Games. While the precipitation amounts in the area remained near normal through this winter, the lack of snow due to warm conditions created numerous media headlines and practical problems for the alpine competitions. A statistical model was developed on the premise that February and March temperatures in the Vancouver area could be predicted using an ENSO signal with considerable lead time. This model successfully predicted the warmer-than-normal, lower-snowfall conditions for the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics and Paralympics.

  5. Influencia del fenómeno ENSO sobre la precipitación nival en el sector andino de Chile central durante el invierno

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available INFLUENCE DU PHÉNOMÈNE ENSO SUR LES PRÉCIPITATIONS NEIGEUSES DANS LE CENTRE DU CHILI ANDIN AU COURS DE L’HIVER AUSTRAL. On analyse l’influence du phénomène El Niño/Oscillation du Sud (ENSO sur les précipitations nivales dans les Andes du Chili central au cours de l’hiver. Pour cela, on a utilisé l’information obtenue sur des sites spécifiques (routes de neige situées entre 30° et 38° S et les anomalies de Température de Surface de la Mer (TSM du bloc Niño 3, comme indicateur de l’importance des événements chauds ou froids dans le Pacifique équatorial central. Au nord de 35°S, l’accumulation de neige tend à être supérieure à la normale quand l’anomalie moyenne de TSM dépasse +1°C au cours de la période mai-août. Dans ce même secteur, on enregistre une précipitation inférieure à la normale les hivers caractérisés par une anomalie de TSM inférieure à -0,5°C. Dans la zone située au sud de 35° S, l’influence du phénomène ENSO sur l’accumulation de neige n’est plus significative. Se analiza la influencia del fenómeno El Niño/Oscilación del Sur (ENSO sobre la precipitación nival en los Andes de Chile central durante el invierno. Para esto, se utiliza información de rutas de nieve localizadas entre 30° y 38° S, y de anomalías de temperatura superficial del mar (TSM en la región Niño 3 como un indicador de la magnitud de los eventos cálidos y fríos en el Pacífico ecuatorial central. En la región al norte de 35° S, la acumulación de nieve durante el invierno tiende a ser superior a lo normal cuando la magnitud de la anomalía media de TSM en el periodo mayo-agosto supera +1,0° C. En este mismo sector se verifica que durante los inviernos caracterizados por una anomalía de TSM inferior a -0,5° C, suele registrarse una precipitación nival inferior a lo normal. En el sector al sur de los 35° S, la influencia del fenómeno ENSO sobre la acumulación de nieve durante el invierno no es

  6. Response of O2 and pH to ENSO in the California Current System in a high-resolution global climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Turi

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Coastal upwelling systems, such as the California Current System (CalCS, naturally experience a wide range of O2 concentrations and pH values due to the seasonality of upwelling. Nonetheless, changes in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO have been shown to measurably affect the biogeochemical and physical properties of coastal upwelling regions. In this study, we use a novel, high-resolution global climate model (GFDL-ESM2.6 to investigate the influence of warm and cold ENSO events on variations in the O2 concentration and the pH of the CalCS coastal waters. An assessment of the CalCS response to six El Niño and seven La Niña events in ESM2.6 reveals significant variations in the response between events. However, these variations overlay a consistent physical and biogeochemical (O2 and pH response in the composite mean. Focusing on the mean response, our results demonstrate that O2 and pH are affected rather differently in the euphotic zone above  ∼  100 m. The strongest O2 response reaches up to several hundreds of kilometers offshore, whereas the pH signal occurs only within a  ∼  100 km wide band along the coast. By splitting the changes in O2 and pH into individual physical and biogeochemical components that are affected by ENSO variability, we found that O2 variability in the surface ocean is primarily driven by changes in surface temperature that affect the O2 solubility. In contrast, surface pH changes are predominantly driven by changes in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC, which in turn is affected by upwelling, explaining the confined nature of the pH signal close to the coast. Below  ∼  100 m, we find conditions with anomalously low O2 and pH, and by extension also anomalously low aragonite saturation, during La Niña. This result is consistent with findings from previous studies and highlights the stress that the CalCS ecosystem could periodically undergo in addition to impacts due to climate

  7. Water vapor stable isotope observations from tropical Australia

    KAUST Repository

    Parkes, Stephen

    2015-04-01

    The response of the tropical hydrological cycle to anthropogenically induced changes in radiative forcing is one of the largest discrepancies between climate models. Paleoclimate archives of the stable isotopic composition of precipitation in the tropics indicate a relationship with precipitation amount that could be exploited to study past hydroclimate and improve our knowledge of how this region responds to changes in climate forcing. Recently modelling studies of convective parameterizations fitted with water isotopes and remote sensing of water vapor isotopes in the tropics have illustrated uncertainty in the assumed relationship with rainfall amount. Therefore there is a need to collect water isotope data in the tropics that can be used to evaluate these models and help identify the relationships between the isotopic composition of meteoric waters and rainfall intensity. However, data in this region is almost non-existent. Here we present in-situ water vapor isotopic measurements and the HDO retrievals from the co-located Total Column Carbon Observing Network (TCCON) site at Darwin in Tropical Australia. The Darwin site is interestingly placed within the tropical western pacific region and is impacted upon by a clear monsoonal climate, and key climate cycles including ENSO and Madden Julian Oscillations. The analysis of the data illustrated relationships between water vapor isotopes and humidity which demonstrated the role of precipitation processes in the wet season and air mass mixing during the dry season. Further the wet season observations show complex relationships between humidity and isotopes. A simple Rayleigh distillation model was not obeyed, instead the importance of rainfall re-evaporation in generating the highly depleted signatures was demonstrated. These data potentially provide a useful tool for evaluating model parameterizations in monsoonal regions as they demonstrate relationships with precipitation processes that cannot be observed with

  8. A cloud-ozone data product from Aura OMI and MLS satellite measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziemke, Jerald R.; Strode, Sarah A.; Douglass, Anne R.; Joiner, Joanna; Vasilkov, Alexander; Oman, Luke D.; Liu, Junhua; Strahan, Susan E.; Bhartia, Pawan K.; Haffner, David P.

    2017-11-01

    Ozone within deep convective clouds is controlled by several factors involving photochemical reactions and transport. Gas-phase photochemical reactions and heterogeneous surface chemical reactions involving ice, water particles, and aerosols inside the clouds all contribute to the distribution and net production and loss of ozone. Ozone in clouds is also dependent on convective transport that carries low-troposphere/boundary-layer ozone and ozone precursors upward into the clouds. Characterizing ozone in thick clouds is an important step for quantifying relationships of ozone with tropospheric H2O, OH production, and cloud microphysics/transport properties. Although measuring ozone in deep convective clouds from either aircraft or balloon ozonesondes is largely impossible due to extreme meteorological conditions associated with these clouds, it is possible to estimate ozone in thick clouds using backscattered solar UV radiation measured by satellite instruments. Our study combines Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) satellite measurements to generate a new research product of monthly-mean ozone concentrations in deep convective clouds between 30° S and 30° N for October 2004-April 2016. These measurements represent mean ozone concentration primarily in the upper levels of thick clouds and reveal key features of cloud ozone including: persistent low ozone concentrations in the tropical Pacific of ˜ 10 ppbv or less; concentrations of up to 60 pphv or greater over landmass regions of South America, southern Africa, Australia, and India/east Asia; connections with tropical ENSO events; and intraseasonal/Madden-Julian oscillation variability. Analysis of OMI aerosol measurements suggests a cause and effect relation between boundary-layer pollution and elevated ozone inside thick clouds over landmass regions including southern Africa and India/east Asia.

  9. Eastward propagating MJO during boreal summer and Indian monsoon droughts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joseph, Susmitha; Sahai, A.K.; Goswami, B.N. [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Climate and Global Modeling Division, Pune (India)

    2009-06-15

    Improved understanding of underlying mechanism responsible for Indian summer monsoon (ISM) droughts is important due to their profound socio-economic impact over the region. While some droughts are associated with 'external forcing' such as the El-Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO), many ISM droughts are not related to any known 'external forcing'. Here, we unravel a fundamental dynamic process responsible for droughts arising not only from external forcing but also those associated with internal dynamics. We show that most ISM droughts are associated with at least one very long break (VLB; breaks with duration of more than 10 days) and that the processes responsible for VLBs may also be the mechanism responsible for ISM droughts. Our analysis also reveals that all extended monsoon breaks (whether co-occurred with El-Nino or not) are associated with an eastward propagating Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the equatorial Indian Ocean and western Pacific extending to the dateline and westward propagating Rossby waves between 10 and 25 N. The divergent Rossby wave associated with the dry phase of equatorial convection propagates westward towards Indian land, couple with the northward propagating dry phase and leads to the sustenance of breaks. Thus, the propensity of eastward propagating MJO during boreal summer is largely the cause of monsoon droughts. While short breaks are not accompanied by westerly wind events (WWE) over equatorial western Pacific favorable for initiating air-sea interaction, all VLBs are accompanied by sustained WWE. The WWEs associated with all VLB during 1975-2005 initiate air-sea interaction on intraseasonal time scale, extend the warm pool eastward allowing the convectively coupled MJO to propagate further eastward and thereby sustaining the divergent circulation over India and the monsoon break. The ocean-atmosphere coupling on interannual time scale (such as El-Nino) can also produce VLB, but not necessary. (orig.)

  10. Characteristics of southern California atmospheric rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Sarah M.; Carvalho, Leila M. V.

    2017-05-01

    Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are channels of high water vapor flux that transport moisture from low to higher latitudes on synoptic timescales. In areas of topographical variability, ARs may lead to high-intensity precipitation due to orographic forcing. ARs landfalling along North America's west coast are linked to extreme events including those leading to flooding and landslides. In southern California (SCA), proper AR forecasting is important for regional water resources as well as hazard mitigation and as the area's annual precipitation totals occur from relatively few storms per season, any changes to storm frequency and/or intensity may have dramatic consequences. Yet, as most regional AR studies focus on the Pacific Northwest, there is little information about SCA ARs. We develop an algorithm to identify ARs landfalling on North America's west coast between 1979 and 2013 within total precipitable water reanalysis fields. ARs are then categorized according to landfall region. To determine and differentiate the characteristics and spatial distributions of ARs affecting these areas, we examine lag composites of various atmospheric variables for each landfall region. SCA ARs differ from ARs landfalling farther north in the days prior to landfall with the position and amplitude of a trough offshore from the Asian continent and ridge over Alaska, as well as the displacement and eastward extension of the jet core that potentially guides AR moisture southwards. The relationships between AR landfalls and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and the Pacific/North American Teleconnection Pattern (PNA) are also investigated.

  11. Hydro-climatic variability over the Andes of Colombia associated with ENSO: a review of climatic processes and their impact on one of the Earth's most important biodiversity hotspots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poveda, Germán; Álvarez, Diana M.; Rueda, Óscar A.

    2011-06-01

    The hydro-climatic variability of the Colombian Andes associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is reviewed using records of rainfall, river discharges, soil moisture, and a vegetation index (NDVI) as a surrogate for evapotranspiration. Anomalies in the components of the surface water balance during both phases of ENSO are quantified in terms of their sign, timing, and magnitude. During El Niño (La Niña), the region experiences negative (positive) anomalies in rainfall, river discharges (average and extremes), soil moisture, and NDVI. ENSO's effects are phase-locked to the seasonal cycle, being stronger during December-February, and weaker during March-May. Besides, rainfall and river discharges anomalies show that the ENSO signal exhibits a westerly wave-like propagation, being stronger (weaker) and earlier (later) over the western (eastern) Andes. Soil moisture anomalies are land-cover type dependant, but overall they are enhanced by ENSO, showing very low values during El Niño (mainly during dry seasons), but saturation values during La Niña. A suite of large-scale and regional mechanisms cooperating at the ocean-atmosphere-land system are reviewed to explaining the identified hydro-climatic anomalies. This review contributes to an understanding of the hydro-climatic framework of a region identified as the most critical hotspot for biodiversity on Earth, and constitutes a wake-up call for scientists and policy-makers alike, to take actions and mobilize resources and minds to prevent the further destruction of the region's valuable hydrologic and biodiversity resources and ecosystems. It also sheds lights towards the implementation of strategies and adaptation plans to coping with threats from global environmental change.

  12. Hydro-climatic variability over the Andes of Colombia associated with ENSO: a review of climatic processes and their impact on one of the Earth's most important biodiversity hotspots

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poveda, German; Alvarez, Diana M. [Universidad Nacional de Colombia, School of Geosciences and Environment, Medellin (Colombia); Rueda, Oscar A. [Universidad Nacional de Colombia, School of Geosciences and Environment, Medellin (Colombia); Grupo HTM, Medellin (Colombia)

    2011-06-15

    The hydro-climatic variability of the Colombian Andes associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is reviewed using records of rainfall, river discharges, soil moisture, and a vegetation index (NDVI) as a surrogate for evapotranspiration. Anomalies in the components of the surface water balance during both phases of ENSO are quantified in terms of their sign, timing, and magnitude. During El Nino (La Nina), the region experiences negative (positive) anomalies in rainfall, river discharges (average and extremes), soil moisture, and NDVI. ENSO's effects are phase-locked to the seasonal cycle, being stronger during December-February, and weaker during March-May. Besides, rainfall and river discharges anomalies show that the ENSO signal exhibits a westerly wave-like propagation, being stronger (weaker) and earlier (later) over the western (eastern) Andes. Soil moisture anomalies are land-cover type dependant, but overall they are enhanced by ENSO, showing very low values during El Nino (mainly during dry seasons), but saturation values during La Nina. A suite of large-scale and regional mechanisms cooperating at the ocean-atmosphere-land system are reviewed to explaining the identified hydro-climatic anomalies. This review contributes to an understanding of the hydro-climatic framework of a region identified as the most critical hotspot for biodiversity on Earth, and constitutes a wake-up call for scientists and policy-makers alike, to take actions and mobilize resources and minds to prevent the further destruction of the region's valuable hydrologic and biodiversity resources and ecosystems. It also sheds lights towards the implementation of strategies and adaptation plans to coping with threats from global environmental change. (orig.)

  13. Effects of Atlantic warm pool variability over climate of South America tropical transition zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricaurte Villota, Constanza; Romero-Rodríguez, Deisy; Andrés Ordoñez-Zuñiga, Silvio; Murcia-Riaño, Magnolia; Coca-Domínguez, Oswaldo

    2016-04-01

    Colombia is located in the northwestern corner of South America in a climatically complex region due to the influence processes modulators of climate both the Pacific and Atlantic region, becoming in a transition zone between phenomena of northern and southern hemisphere. Variations in the climatic conditions of this region, especially rainfall, have been attributed to the influence of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but little is known about the interaction within Atlantic Ocean and specifically Caribbean Sea with the environmental conditions of this region. In this work We studied the influence of the Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP) on the Colombian Caribbean (CC) climate using data of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) between 1900 - 2014 from ERSST V4, compared with in situ data SIMAC (National System for Coral Reef Monitoring in Colombia - INVEMAR), rainfall between 1953-2013 of meteorological stations located at main airports in the Colombian Caribbean zone, administered by IDEAM, and winds data between 2003 - 2014 from WindSat sensor. The parameters analyzed showed spatial differences throughout the study area. SST anomalies, representing the variability of the AWP, showed to be associated with Multidecadal Atlantic Oscillation (AMO) and with the index of sea surface temperature of the North-tropical Atlantic (NTA), the variations was on 3 to 5 years on the ENSO scale and of approximately 11 years possibly related to solar cycles. Rainfall anomalies in the central and northern CC respond to changes in SST, while in the south zone these are not fully engage and show a high relationship with the ENSO. Finally, the winds also respond to changes in SST and showed a signal approximately 90 days possibly related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation, whose intensity depends on the CC region being analyzed. The results confirm that region is a transition zone in which operate several forcing, the variability of climate conditions is difficult to attribute only one, as ENSO

  14. The Influence of ENSO/IOD on SST Signal in Kendari, Southeast Sulawesi Waters: 27-year-records of Sr/Ca from Porites corals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sri Yudawati Cahyarini

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available DOI:10.17014/ijog.2.1.43-51Indonesia is an interesting and important location for a climate study, because it is located in the centre of a warm pool and adjacent to Pacific and Indian Oceans. Long records of climate data are required from this region to more understand the climate variability and the response of global warming. Geochemical proxies derived from Porites corals are believed to be an excellent climate recorder. Sr/Ca content in Porites corals from Kendari, Southeast Sulawesi shows that seasonal variability of SST is resolved by coral Sr/Ca from this region. The monsoon strongly influences reconstructed SST from coral Sr/Ca. Coral SST shows strong power spectrum at the 2.75 year period. Annual to interannual coral SST signal is stronger than the decadal to interdecadal signal. Both ENSO and IOD influence coral SST at two-month and three-month lags respectively.

  15. Rapid drawdown of Antarctica's Wordie Ice Shelf glaciers in response to ENSO/Southern Annular Mode-driven warming in the Southern Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, C. C.; Gardner, A. S.

    2017-10-01

    Here we investigate the largest acceleration in ice flow across all of Antarctica between ∼2008 InSAR and 2014 Landsat velocity mappings. This occurred in glaciers that used to feed into the Wordie Ice Shelf on the west Antarctic Peninsula, which rapidly disintegrated in ∼1989. Between 2008 and 2014, these glaciers experienced at least a threefold increase in surface elevation drawdown relative to the 2002-2008 time period. After ∼20 yrs of relative stability, it is unlikely that the ice shelf collapse played a role in the large response. Instead, we find that the rapid acceleration and surface drawdown is linked to enhanced melting at the ice-ocean boundary, attributable to changes in winds driven by global atmospheric circulation patterns, namely the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Southern Annular Mode (SAM), linking changes in grounded ice to atmospheric-driven ocean warming.

  16. Tree-ring latewood width based July-August SPEI reconstruction in South China since 1888 and its possible connection with ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yesi; Shi, Jiangfeng; Shi, Shiyuan; Yu, Jian; Lu, Huayu

    2017-02-01

    Our understanding of the long-term hydroclimate variations in South China is prohibited by the shortness of meteorological records. Paleoclimatic proxies, such as tree-rings, can be pursued to extend the meteorological records back for centuries to help us better understand hydroclimatic conditions. In this study, we reconstructed the July-August standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEIJul-Aug) based on a newly developed 127-yr adjusted latewood width chronology from Tsuga longibracteata, South China. The chronology explained 40% of the actual SPEIJul-Aug variance in the period 1953-2014. The reconstructed SPEIJul-Aug can represent large-scale July-August SPEI variations over South China, including northern Guangxi, Hunan, and Guizhou provinces. From the perspective of the past 127 years, the extreme summer drought in 2013 was not unusual because more extreme drought events occurred in the first half of the 20th century. A significant 2.0-3.6-yr hydroclimatic cycle existed in the reconstruction, which indicated that the SPEIJul-Aug might be driven by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We further checked the time-dependency of the relationship between SPEIJul-Aug and ENSO and found that it was unstable. Their relationship was weak before the 1950s, became significant from the 1950s to early 1990s, and then dropped to be weak again and even out of phase since the early 1990s, which may be attributable to the significant westward extension of the western Pacific subtropical high.

  17. Tree-ring latewood width based July-August SPEI reconstruction in South China since AD 1888 and its possible connection with ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yesi; Shi, Jiangfeng; Shi, Shiyuan; Yu, Jian; Lu, Huayu

    2017-04-01

    Our understanding of the long-term hydroclimate variations in South China is prohibited by the shortness of meteorological records. Paleoclimatic proxies, such as tree-rings, can be pursued to extend the meteorological records back for centuries to help us better understand hydroclimatic conditions. In this study, we reconstructed the July-August Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEIJul-Aug) based on a newly developed 127-year adjusted latewood width chronology from Tsuga longibracteata, South China. In specific, the latewood width chronology was regressed on the earlywood width chronology using a simple linear regression, and the residuals plus a constant 1.0 were defined as the adjusted latewood width chronology. The chronology explained 40% of the actual SPEIJul-Aug variance in the period 1953-2014. The reconstructed SPEIJul-Aug can represent large-scale July-August SPEI variations over South China, including northern Guangxi, Hunan, and Guizhou provinces. From the perspective of the past 127 years, the extreme summer drought in 2013 was not unusual because more extreme drought events occurred in the first half of the 20th century. A significant 2.0-3.6-year hydroclimatic cycle existed in the reconstruction, which indicated that the SPEIJul-Aug might be driven by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We further checked the time-dependency of the relationship between SPEIJul-Augand ENSO and found that it was unstable. Their relationship was weak before the 1950s, became significant from the 1950s to early 1990s, and then dropped to be weak again and even out of phase since the early 1990s, which may be attributable to the significant westward extension of the western Pacific subtropical high. This study indicates that summer hydroclimate in South China can be reconstructed based on adjusted latewood width, and will be better understood when more and longer adjusted latewood width chronologies are obtained in the near future.

  18. Re-evaluating the resource potential of lomas fog oasis environments for Preceramic hunter-gatherers under past ENSO modes on the south coast of Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beresford-Jones, David; Pullen, Alexander G.; Whaley, Oliver Q.; Moat, Justin; Chauca, George; Cadwallader, Lauren; Arce, Susana; Orellana, Alfonso; Alarcón, Carmela; Gorriti, Manuel; Maita, Patricia K.; Sturt, Fraser; Dupeyron, Agathe; Huaman, Oliver; Lane, Kevin J.; French, Charles

    2015-12-01

    Lomas - ephemeral seasonal oases sustained by ocean fogs - were critical to ancient human ecology on the desert Pacific coast of Peru: one of humanity's few independent hearths of agriculture and "pristine" civilisation. The role of climate change since the Late Pleistocene in determining productivity and extent of past lomas ecosystems has been much debated. Here we reassess the resource potential of the poorly studied lomas of the south coast of Peru during the long Middle Pre-ceramic period (c. 8000-4500 BP): a period critical in the transition to agriculture, the onset of modern El Niño Southern Oscillation ('ENSO') conditions, and eustatic sea-level rise and stabilisation and beach progradation. Our method combines vegetation survey and herbarium collection with archaeological survey and excavation to make inferences about both Preceramic hunter-gatherer ecology and the changed palaeoenvironments in which it took place. Our analysis of newly discovered archaeological sites - and their resource context - show how lomas formations defined human ecology until the end of the Middle Preceramic Period, thereby corroborating recent reconstructions of ENSO history based on other data. Together, these suggest that a five millennia period of significantly colder seas on the south coast induced conditions of abundance and seasonal predictability in lomas and maritime ecosystems, that enabled Middle Preceramic hunter-gatherers to reduce mobility by settling in strategic locations at the confluence of multiple eco-zones at the river estuaries. Here the foundations of agriculture lay in a Broad Spectrum Revolution that unfolded, not through population pressure in deteriorating environments, but rather as an outcome of resource abundance.

  19. Holocene climate variations in the western Antarctic Peninsula: evidence for sea ice extent predominantly controlled by changes in insolation and ENSO variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Etourneau

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The West Antarctic ice sheet is particularly sensitive to global warming and its evolution and impact on global climate over the next few decades remains difficult to predict. In this context, investigating past sea ice conditions around Antarctica is of primary importance. Here, we document changes in sea ice presence, upper water column temperatures (0–200 m and primary productivity over the last 9000 yr BP (before present in the western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP margin from a sedimentary core collected in the Palmer Deep Basin. Employing a multi-proxy approach, based on the combination of two biomarkers proxies (highly branched isoprenoid (HBI alkenes for sea ice and TEX86L for temperature and micropaleontological data (diatom assemblages, we derived new Holocene records of sea ice conditions and upper water column temperatures. The early Holocene (9000–7000 yr BP was characterized by a cooling phase with a short sea ice season. During the mid-Holocene (~7000–3800 yr BP, local climate evolved towards slightly colder conditions and a prominent extension of the sea ice season occurred, promoting a favorable environment for intensive diatom growth. The late Holocene (the last ~2100 yr was characterized by warmer temperatures and increased sea ice presence, accompanied by reduced local primary productivity, likely in response to a shorter growing season compared to the early or mid-Holocene. The gradual increase in annual sea ice duration over the last 7000 yr might have been influenced by decreasing mean annual and spring insolation, despite increasing summer insolation. We postulate that, in addition to precessional changes in insolation, seasonal variability, via changes in the strength of the circumpolar Westerlies and upwelling activity, was further amplified by the increasing frequency/amplitude of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO. However, between 3800 and 2100 yr BP, the lack of correlation between ENSO and climate

  20. Spatial and seasonal responses of precipitation in the Ganges and Brahmaputra river basins to ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole modes: implications for flooding and drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pervez, Md Shahriar; Henebry, Geoffry M.

    2015-01-01

    We evaluated the spatial and seasonal responses of precipitation in the Ganges and Brahmaputra basins as modulated by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) modes using Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) full data reanalysis of monthly global land-surface precipitation data from 1901 to 2010 with a spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5°. The GPCC monthly total precipitation climatology targeting the period 1951–2000 was used to compute gridded monthly anomalies for the entire time period. The gridded monthly anomalies were averaged for the years influenced by combinations of climate modes. Occurrences of El Niño alone significantly reduce (88% of the long-term average (LTA)) precipitation during the monsoon months in the western and southeastern Ganges Basin. In contrast, occurrences of La Niña and co-occurrences of La Niña and negative IOD events significantly enhance (110 and 109% of LTA in the Ganges and Brahmaputra Basin, respectively) precipitation across both basins. When El Niño co-occurs with positive IOD events, the impacts of El Niño on the basins' precipitation diminishes. When there is no active ENSO or IOD events (occurring in 41 out of 110 years), precipitation remains below average (95% of LTA) in the agriculturally intensive areas of Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Western Nepal in the Ganges Basin, whereas precipitation remains average to above average (104% of LTA) across the Brahmaputra Basin. This pattern implies that a regular water deficit is likely, especially in the Ganges Basin, with implications for the agriculture sector due to its reliance on consistent rainfall for successful production. Historically, major droughts occurred during El Niño and co-occurrences of El Niño and positive IOD events, while major flooding occurred during La Niña and co-occurrences of La Niña and negative IOD events in the basins. This observational analysis will facilitate well

  1. Observational evidence of lower-frequency Yanai waves in the central equatorial Indian Ocean

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    David, D.T.; PrasannaKumar, S.; Byju, P.; Sarma, M.S.S.; Suryanarayana, A.; Murty, V.S.N.

    in the Atlantic Ocean, Ocean Modell., 7, 145-163. Jones, C., Waliser, D. E., Lau, K. M. and Stern, W (2004), The Madden Julian oscillation and its impact on northern hemisphere weather predictability, Mon. Weath. Rev., 132, 1462–1471. Kelly, B. G., Steven D...

  2. Upper Ocean Characteristics in the Tropical Indian Ocean from AXBT and AXCTD Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-01

    Prediction System CTD Conductivity, Temperature, and Depth DYNAMO Dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation EMF Electromagnetic Field GTS Global... radiation , which penetrates through the mixed layer when it is at its shallowest. This shortwave radiation that penetrates through the shallow...processes are closely linked through surface forcing, boundary layer transport, cloud dynamics and microphysics as well as radiation processes

  3. Identifying and understanding vegetation productivity swings in response to ENSO dynamics to improve land surface modeling capability in quantifying extreme events across Australia and East Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broich, Mark; Huete, Alfredo; Yu, Qiang; Davies, Kevin; Restrepo-Coupe, Natalia

    2013-04-01

    In this study we quantified linkages between climate and vegetation productivity response across large areas in Australia and East Asia, and carried out more detailed analysis for areas and intervals with extreme productivity swings. We first quantified teleconnections between large scale atmospheric oscillations over the western Pacific and vegetation productivity across Australia, Southeast and East Asia. For this purpose we analyzed remotely sensed vegetation productivity (estimated from MODIS vegetation index time series) in response to the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). This resulted in a spatially explicit representation of extreme vegetation productivity response to regional climatic variability. For areas and intervals with strong vegetation productivity swings we then investigated the spatial-temporal relationship of remotely sensed vegetation productivity with temperature and rainfall grids as well as with productivity responses predicted by the Australian CSIRO Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) model. By conducting this study across various spatial-temporal scales and variable aggregations, we identified geographic areas and intervals with strong vegetation productivity swings related to SOI atmospheric oscillations and attributed these swings to changes in regional temperature and precipitation grids. The final step of quantifying the space-time correlation between extreme swings in remotely sensed vegetation productivity and land surface model predictions provided insight into model capacity and sensitivity. We identified large ENSO drought-related crop productivity declines for Eastern Australia, continental and insular Southeast Asia and, temporally offset, in northeastern China. The largest divergence between extreme remotely sensed vegetation productivity drops and CABLE-predicted productivity occurred over ground water dependent ecosystems.

  4. A comparison of sea surface salinity in the equatorial Pacific Ocean during the 1997-1998, 2012-2013, and 2014-2015 ENSO events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corbett, Caroline M.; Subrahmanyam, Bulusu; Giese, Benjamin S.

    2017-11-01

    Sea surface salinity (SSS) variability during the 1997-1998 El Niño event and the failed 2012-2013 and 2014-2015 El Niño events is explored using a combination of observations and ocean reanalyses. Previously, studies have mainly focused on the sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface height (SSH) variability. This analysis utilizes salinity data from Argo and the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) reanalysis to examine the SSS variability. Advective processes and evaporation minus precipitation (E-P) variability is understood to influence SSS variability. Using surface wind, surface current, evaporation, and precipitation data, we analyze the causes for the observed SSS variability during each event. Barrier layer thickness and upper level salt content are also examined in connection to subsurface salinity variability. Both advective processes and E-P variability are important during the generation and onset of a successful El Niño, while a lack of one or both of these processes leads to a failed ENSO event.

  5. Catch variability and growth of pink shrimp (Farfantepenaeus paulensis in two coastal lagoons of uruguay and their relationship with ENSO events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orlando Santana

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available AbstractThe pink shrimp Farfantepenaeus paulensis (Pérez Farfante, 1967 is distributed along the Atlantic Coast from Bahia (Brazil to Mar del Plata (Argentina. The larval stages enter the Uruguayan brackish water lagoons during late spring to summer associated with tidal currents of the Brazilian Current. In such environments the growth is accelerated and in early autumn the individuals attain commercial size, supporting important regional artisanal fisheries. The pink shrimp catches from 1988 to 2013 were analyzed and related to phenomena of climate variability in ENSO events and to the growth of the species. The total catch ranges from 0.7 to 162 tons. The variation in catches has a negative relationship with the varied climatic events caused by El Niño. Growth parameters yielding values of L ∞ = 177 mm (total carapace length and K = 1.48 for the period 2009-2013. These values differ slightly from those calculated for natural populations in southern Brazil, suggesting that the population is the same and thus implying the need for coordinated fisheries management between the two countries.

  6. Incidencia del fenómeno ENSO en la hidroclimatología del valle del río Cauca-Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available IMPACT DU PHÉNOMÈNE ENSO SUR L’HYDROCLIMATOLOGIE DU RIO CAUCA-COLOMBIE. On présente dans cet article quelques unes des manifestations du phénomène et leur impact sur la pénurie des ressources en eau dans la vallée du rio Cauca, au cours des périodes sèches ainsi que les crues et inondations, provoquées par les périodes excédentaires. L’évaluation de valeurs extrêmes des débits des rivières montre des différences liées à l’occurrence d’un El Niño. En présence d’un El Niño, les débits maximums seront plus forts et les débits d’étiages plus faibles. Au cours de ces périodes, on observe donc une augmentation du risque d’inondation au cours de la saison des pluies, alors que la quantité d’eau diminue au cours des périodes sèches avec un risque accru d’incendie de forêt. En este trabajo, se presentan algunas de las manifestaciones del Fenómeno y el impacto que ocasiona en la disponibilidad hídrica del Valle del Cauca durante la fase Cálida (Niño, por efecto del déficit hídrico, y durante la fase fría (AntiNiño o Niña por exceso de lluvias. La evaluación de los caudales mínimos de los ríos del Valle del Río Cauca, se asocia con los años de ocurrencia de la fase cálida, mientras los caudales medios máximos se asocian a períodos de ocurrencia de la fase fría (AntiNiño o Niña. Durante el Niño se presentan sequías, incendios forestales, pérdidas de cultivos, de perecederos, disminución de la pesca, incremento de enfermedades y racionamiento de energía, mientras que durante la Niña se presentan mayores riesgos de inundación, desbordamientos, desastres, erosión y destrucción de la infraestructura vial e hidráulica. INCIDENCE OF ENSO PHENOMENON IN THE HYDROCLIMATOLOGY OF THE RÍO CAUCA VALLEY-COLOMBIA. In this paper, the impacts of the El Niño and La Niña o AntiNiño phenomena on the water resources of the Valle del Cauca (Colombia are considered low flows in the rivers are associated with

  7. STUDY ON VARIABILITY MECHANISM DURING 1997/1998 ENSO IN EASTERN PART OF INDONESIA ARCHIPELAGO USING SATELLITE DATA AND IN-SITU DATA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luh Made Chandra Astiti R.

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO is one of the most important climate anomalies humans isconcerned about. It brought many changes in physical of the ocean. The seas of the Indonesian Archipelagoare an artery carrying tropical thermocline water from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean. Termed the'Indonesian Throughflow' (ITF, this transport is driven by the Pacific/Indian interocean pressure gradient.The variability of SST in Equatorial Zone during 1997/1998 ENSO analyzed by using L1 AVHRR satelliteimages from NOAA and in-situ data from TAO/Triton buoy. This study was done in Eastern Part ofIndonesian Archipelago (110oE – 130oE and 4oS – 11oS. This research begun by collecting data in longterm, 1993, 1997, 1998 such as: in-situ data and satellite image. L1 AVHRR satellite images from NOAA toget SST data were used. From TAO/Triton buoy, SST and current data were got. SSH data available from L3TOPEX/Poseidon. SLP and salinity data were got from NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center. All thedata analyzed by SOI value to recognize the normal, El Niño, and La Niña conditions. The SOI value wasused in this study available from existing research data.Generally, the SST in northern Lesser Sunda (Bali, Lombok, Sumbawa and Flores was 0.5 – 1oC higherthan southern part. During El-Nino event on October 1997, the 1 – 2oC cooler SST causes the surfacepressure get higher around Indonesian seas. This phenomenon probably is much influenced by the change ofseason in Indonesia, from hot season to the rain season. But during El-Nino 1997 the 1 – 4oC warmer waterwas occurred in centre part of Pacific Ocean, hence the sea water from Indonesia Sea flown to the PacificOcean. During El Nino conditions, on December 1997, the SSH in southern Indonesia Archipelago wasabout 10 – 40 cm lower than normal conditions and became 10 – 30 cm lower than Indonesian seas. Thiscould be due to the SST in Indonesian seas was higher than southern Indonesian Archipelago

  8. The influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles on wave-driven sea-floor sediment mobility along the central California continental margin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storlazzi, Curt D.; Reid, Jane A.

    2010-01-01

    Ocean surface waves are the dominant temporally and spatially variable process influencing sea floor sediment resuspension along most continental shelves. Wave-induced sediment mobility on the continental shelf and upper continental slope off central California for different phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events was modeled using monthly statistics derived from more than 14 years of concurrent hourly oceanographic and meteorologic data as boundary input for the Delft SWAN wave model, gridded sea floor grain-size data from the usSEABED database, and regional bathymetry. Differences as small as 0.5 m in wave height, 1 s in wave period, and 10° in wave direction, in conjunction with the spatially heterogeneous unconsolidated sea-floor sedimentary cover, result in significant changes in the predicted mobility of continental shelf surficial sediment in the study area. El Niño events result in more frequent mobilization on the inner shelf in the summer and winter than during La Niña events and on the outer shelf and upper slope in the winter months, while La Niña events result in more frequent mobilization on the mid-shelf during spring and summer months than during El Niño events. The timing and patterns of seabed mobility are addressed in context of geologic and biologic processes. By understanding the spatial and temporal variability in the disturbance of the sea floor, scientists can better interpret sedimentary patterns and ecosystem structure, while providing managers and planners an understanding of natural impacts when considering the permitting of offshore activities that disturb the sea floor such as trawling, dredging, and the emplacement of sea-floor engineering structures.

  9. ENSO regimes and the late 1970's climate shift: The role of synoptic weather and South Pacific ocean spiciness

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Kane, Terence J.; Matear, Richard J.; Chamberlain, Matthew A.; Oke, Peter R.

    2014-08-15

    South Pacific subtropical density compensated temperature and salinity (spiciness) anomalies are known to be associated with decadal equatorial variability, however, the mechanisms by which such disturbances are generated, advect and the degree to which they modulate the equatorial thermocline remains controversial. During the late 1970's a climate regime transition preceded a period of strong and sustained El Nino events. Using an ocean general circulation model forced by the constituent mechanical and thermodynamic components of the reanalysed atmosphere we show that the late 1970's transition coincided with the arrival of a large-scale, subsurface cold and fresh water anomaly in the central tropical Pacific. An ocean reanalysis for the period 1990–2007 that assimilates subsurface Argo, XBT and CTD data, reveals that disturbances occur due to the subduction of negative surface salinity anomalies from near 30° S, 100° W which are advected along the σ=25–26 kgm{sup −3} isopycnal surfaces. These anomalies take, on average, seven years to reach the central equatorial Pacific where they may substantially perturb the thermocline before the remnants ultimately ventilate in the region of the western Pacific warm pool. Positive (warm–salty) disturbances, known to occur due to late winter diapycnal mixing and isopycnal outcropping, arise due to both subduction of subtropical mode waters and subsurface injection. On reaching the equatorial band (10° S–0° S) these disturbances tend to deepen the thermocline reducing the model's ENSO. In contrast the emergence of negative (cold–fresh) disturbances at the equator are associated with a shoaling of the thermocline and El Nino events. Process studies are used to show that the generation and advection of anomalous density compensated thermocline disturbances critically depend on stochastic forcing of the intrinsic ocean by weather. We further show that in the absence of the inter-annual component of

  10. Variability of seasonal-mean fields arising from intraseasonal variability. Part 3: Application to SH winter and summer circulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frederiksen, Carsten S. [Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, GPO Box 1289, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); Zheng, Xiaogu [National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington (New Zealand)

    2007-06-15

    A study has been made, using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research re-analysis 500 hPa geopotential height data, to determine how intraseasonal variability influences, or can generate, coherent patterns of interannual variability in the extratropical summer and winter Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation. In addition, by separating this intraseasonal component of interannual variability, we also consider how slowly varying external forcings and slowly varying (interannual and longer) internal dynamics might influence the interannual variability of the Southern Hemisphere circulation. This slow component of interannual variation is more likely to be potentially predictable. How sea surface temperatures are related to the slow components is also considered. The four dominant intraseasonal modes of interannual variability have horizontal structures similar to those seen in both well-known intraseasonal dynamical modes and statistical modes of intraseasonal variability. In particular, they reflect intraseasonal variability in the high latitudes associated with the Southern Annular Mode, and wavenumber 4 (summer) and wavenumber 3 (winter) patterns associated with south Pacific regions of persistent anomalies and blocking, and possibly variability related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The four dominant slow components of interannual variability, in both seasons, are related to high latitude variability associated with the Southern Annular Mode, El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, and South Pacific Wave variability associated with Indian Ocean SSTs. In both seasons, there are strong linear trends in the first slow mode of high latitude variability and these are shown to be related to similar trends in the Indian Ocean. Once these are taken into account there is no significant sea surface temperature forcing of these high latitude modes. The second and third ENSO related slow modes, in

  11. Weather regimes and orographic circulation around New Caledonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lefèvre, Jérôme; Marchesiello, Patrick; Jourdain, Nicolas C; Menkes, Christophe; Leroy, Anne

    2010-01-01

    The local climate and island-scale circulation around New Caledonia is investigated using a 4-km resolution mesoscale atmospheric model in concert with QuikSCAT scatterometer winds at 12.5-km resolution. The mesoscale atmospheric weather regimes are first examined through an objective classification applied to the remote sensed winds for nine warm seasons from 1999 to 2008. Four main weather types are identified. Their corresponding synoptic-scale circulation reveals that they are strongly discernable through the position and intensity of the South Pacific Convergence zone (SPCZ), the mid-latitude systems, and the subtropical jet stream. The link between the mesoscale weather types and the two dominant large-scale modes of variability, namely the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is also described in terms of their influence on the occurrence of each weather type. It shows that their occurrence is significantly controlled by both MJO and ENSO, through modulation of the SPCZ. The large-scale modes of variability are scaled down to island-scale circulation through synoptic and mesoscale regimes, and are eventually modulated by orographic and thermal control. The island-scale circulation is inferred in this study by applying the compositing method to both observed and simulated winds. Their comparison clearly shows the ability of the mesoscale model to capture the local circulation and its spatial and temporal variability. A scaling analysis conducted from the simulated atmospheric parameters shows that the mountain range of New Caledonia is hydrodynamically steep. As a result of trade-wind obstruction by the mountainous island, the flow is shaped by coastally trapped mesoscale responses, i.e., blocking, flow splitting and corner winds, with a spatial scale of about 150 km. Two main obstacles, Mont Panié and Mont Humboldt play a significant role on the dynamical behavior of the low-level flow, while the diurnal heating

  12. Movement of the pulsars and neutrino oscillations; Movimiento de los pulsares y oscilaciones de neutrinos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barkovich, M.A

    2005-07-01

    The astronomical observations show that the pulsars are not in the center of the remainder of the supernovae that gave its origin, but rather are displaced of the same one and moving to a speed of about 500 km/s, which is much bigger that of the progenitor star. This fact constitutes a strong evidence that the pulsars is accelerated in the moment of its birth and by this it is denominated to this phenomenon 'pulsars kick'. They exist numerous and varied mechanisms to explain this effect, but none makes it in way completely satisfactory. In this thesis we will study in detail a mechanism proposed originally by Kusenko and Segre and that is based on an asymmetric emission of the neutrinos flow induced by the oscillations of the same ones when its spread in a magnetized media. For this end we will develop, in first instance, the Eddington model. This is based on the transport of the neutrino flux and it describes in a reasonable way the atmosphere of a neutron protostar, place where take place the oscillations. Next we will study the problem of the emission of a neutrino gas from a resonance volume. These results will be applied to the study of the kick in the cases of oscillations among active neutrinos and actives with sterile to determine the magnetic field and the oscillation parameters (difference of the square of the masses of those neutrinos and mixture angle in vacuum) required. Finally we will analyze those neutrino oscillations induced by a possible violation of the Equivalence principle and it implication in the pulsars dynamics. (Author)

  13. Power oscillations in BWR reactors; Oscilaciones de potencia en reactores BWR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Espinosa P, G. [Division de Ciencias Basicas e Ingenieria, Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana-Iztapalapa, 09340 Mexico D.F. (Mexico)]. E-mail: gepe@xanum.uam.mx

    2002-07-01

    One of the main problems in the operation of BWR type reactors is the instability in power that these could present. One type of oscillations and that is the objective of this work is the named density wave, which is attributed to the thermohydraulic processes that take place in the reactor core. From the beginnings of the development of BWR reactors, the stability of these has been an important aspect in their design, due to its possible consequences on the fuel integrity. The reactor core operates in two phase flow conditions and it is observed that under certain power and flow conditions, power instabilities appear. Studying this type of phenomena is complex, due to that a reactor core is constituted approximately by 27,000 fuel bars with different distributions of power and flow. The phenomena that cause the instability in BWR reactors continue being matter of scientific study. In the literature mainly in nuclear subject, it can be observed that exist different methods and approximations for studying this type of phenomena, nevertheless, their results are focused to establish safety limits in the reactor operation, instead of studying in depth of the knowledge about. Also in this line sense of the reactor data analysis, the oscillations characteristic frequencies are obtained for trying to establish if the power is growing or decreasing. In addition to that before mentioned in this paper it is presented a rigorous study applying the volumetric average method, for obtaining the vacuum waves propagation velocities and its possible connection with the power oscillations. (Author)

  14. ENSO forecasts in South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The SST prediction systems currently being used at the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) and the South African Weather Service (SAWS) are presented. In particular, the skill of these systems to predict Niño3.4 SST and how...

  15. Assessing the roles of temperature, precipitation, and enso in dengue re-emergence on the Texas-Mexico border region Evaluación del clima y del ENSO en la reemergencia del dengue en la frontera Texas-México

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joan M Brunkard

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study was to assess linkages between microclimate and longer-term ENSO-related weather forcing on the week-to-week changes in dengue prevalence in Matamoros, Tamaulipas, Mexico, over a recent decade of dengue observations. MATERIAL AND METHODS: An auto-regressive model to evaluate the role of climatic factors (sea-surface temperature and weather (maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation on dengue incidence over the period 1995-2005, was developed by conducting time-series analysis. RESULTS: Dengue incidence increased by 2.6% (95% CI: 0.2-5.1 one week after every 1ºC increase in weekly maximum temperature and increased 1.9% (95% CI: -0.1-3.9 two weeks after every 1 cm increase in weekly precipitation. Every 1ºC increase in sea surface temperatures (El Niño region 3.4 was followed by a 19.4% (95% CI: -4.7-43.5 increase in dengue incidence (18 weeks later. CONCLUSIONS: Climate and weather factors play a small but significant role in dengue transmission in Matamoros, Mexico. This study may provide baseline information for identifying potential longer-term effects of global climate change on dengue expected in the coming decades. To our knowledge, this is the first study to investigate the potential associations between climate and weather events and dengue incidence in this geographical area.OBJETIVO: Evaluar los vínculos entre el microclima, las variables relacionadas al fenómeno de El Niño Oscilación del Sur (ENSO y los cambios en el reporte semanal de casos de dengue en el área de Matamoros, Tamaulipas, México, a lo largo de una década de observaciones. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: Se desarrolló un modelo autorregresivo para evaluar la influencia de factores climáticos (temperatura superficial del mar y tiempo (temperatura máxima, temperatura mínima y precipitación sobre la incidencia de dengue, a lo largo de 11 años (1995-2005, empleando análisis de series de tiempo. RESULTADOS: La incidencia

  16. Variaciones morfológicas y batimétricas de la línea de costa en el estuario del río Chone, producidas por los eventos ENSO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available VARIATIONS MORPHOLOGIQUES ET BATHYMETRIQUES DU RIVAGE DANS L’ESTUAIRE DU RIO CHONE PROVOQUEES PAR DES EVENEMENTS ENSO. Le phénomène El Niño accélère les processus de sédimentation et d’érosion dans l’estuaire du rio Chone. Au cours des événements de 1940 (El Niño fort et 1958 (El Niño faible, on a observé un accroissement des processus de sédimentation, vers l’amont de l’estuaire, alors que l’on observait des processus d’érosion vers l’aval. Les résultats que nous présentons sont basés sur l’évolution des profils transversaux de 6 sections situées au long de l’estuaire au cours des années 1940, 1958, 1961 (année normale, 1964 (année froide et 1979. On a également utilisé les autres études publiées sur ce sujet. Ces études montrent qu’au cours d’un phénomène El Niño : Le niveau de l’océan s’élève, les vagues se brisent un peu plus près du rivage et provoquent de l’érosion sur la côte nord de l’Equateur. Les fortes pluies augmentent l’instabilité des falaises situées au sud de Bahia de Caraquez. Il y a érosion de la base des pentes des collines qui entourent l’estuaire, ce qui augmente la charge de sédiment dans l’estuaire. En este estudio, se observó el comportamiento de las profundidades cada doscientos metros, de 6 transectas ubicadas a lo largo del estuario (Fig. 1. Además se superpusieron cartas batimétricas, en donde se pudo observar claramente los procesos de acreción y regresión que ha sufrido la línea de costa del estuario del río Chone, a través de los años. Los años en los que se basaron estas observaciones corresponden a información obtenida de cartas batimétricas de 1940 (Niño fuerte, 1958 (Niño débil, 1961 (año normal, 1964 (año frío y 1979. Durante los eventos ENSO (El Niño Oscilación del Sur de 1940 y 1958, el estuario sufrió fuertes procesos de sedimentación, sobre todo en las transectas ubicadas hacia la cabecera, no así, hacia la desembocadura en

  17. The Impact of the Diurnal Cycle of Clouds and Precipitation over the Maritime Continent on the Propagation of the MJO into the Western Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burleyson, C. D.; Hagos, S. M.; Feng, Z.

    2016-12-01

    The processes that determine the interaction between the islands of the maritime continent (MC) and the eastward propagation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) are poorly understood. We are undertaking a series of observational and modeling analyses aimed at understanding how clouds and precipitation over the islands of the MC lead to changes in the intensity of the MJO (inferred by the amplitude of the Real-time Multivariate MJO index [RMM] and other metrics) as it crosses the MC. One component of our analysis uses the long-term measurements from the DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) sites in the Tropical Western Pacific (TWP) to examine cloud radiative effects as the MJO crosses the MC. Using the multi-year ARM dataset and a cloud resolving model (CRM), we show that the MJO interacts with the diurnal cycle of surface heating, clouds, and precipitation over the islands of the MC in a way that weakens it. Additionally, using a satellite climatology based on the TRMM 3B42 dataset we found that MJO episodes that weaken as they cross the MC are characterized by more frequent precipitation and warmer sea surface temperatures (SSTs) south of the equator and less frequent precipitation north of the equator compared to cases where the MJO intensifies. The north-south polarity in SSTs suggests a seasonal dependence in the ability of the MJO to cross the MC. This seasonality was confirmed by looking the seasonal distribution of changes in MJO amplitude as it crosses the MC. Consistent with the SST result, we found that MJO episodes that intensify as they cross the MC are more likely to occur during the northern hemisphere summer and less likely to occur during the northern hemisphere winter (Fig. 1). A regional CRM and satellite observations are used jointly to explore the processes responsible for this seasonality and to examine the impact of interannual oscillations such as ENSO and monsoons on the ability of the MJO to cross the MC. Fig. 1. The annual

  18. Aerosol Meteorology of the Maritime Continent for the 2012 7SEAS Southwest Monsoon Intensive Study - Part 1: Regional-scale Phenomena

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, Jeffrey S.; Xian, Peng; Holben, Brent N.; Hyer, Edward J.; Reid, Elizabeth A.; Salinas, Santo V.; Zhang, Jianglong; Campbell, James R.; Chew, Boon Ning; Holz, Robert E.; hide

    2016-01-01

    The largest 7 Southeast Asian Studies (7SEAS) operation period within the Maritime Continent (MC) occurred in the August-September 2012 biomass burning season. Included was an enhanced deployment of Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sun photometers, multiple lidars, and field measurements to observe transported smoke and pollution as it left the MC and entered the southwest monsoon trough. Here we describe the nature of the overall 2012 southwest monsoon (SWM) and biomass burning season to give context to the 2012 deployment. The MC in 2012 was in a slightly warm El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase and with spatially typical burning activity. However, overall fire counts for 2012 were 10 lower than the Reid et al. (2012) baseline, with regions of significant departures from this norm, ranging from southern Sumatra (+30) to southern Kalimantan (42). Fire activity and monsoonal flows for the dominant burning regions were modulated by a series of intraseasonal oscillation events (e.g., Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO, and boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation, or BSISO). As is typical, fire activity systematically progressed eastward over time, starting with central Sumatran fire activity in June related to a moderately strong MJO event which brought drier air from the Indian Ocean aloft and enhanced monsoonal flow. Further burning in Sumatra and Kalimantan Borneo occurred in a series of significant events from early August to a peak in the first week of October, ending when the monsoon started to migrate back to its wintertime northeastern flow conditions in mid-October. Significant monsoonal enhancements and flow reversals collinear with tropical cyclone (TC) activity and easterly waves were also observed. Islands of the eastern MC, including Sulawesi, Java, and Timor, showed less sensitivity to monsoonal variation, with slowly increasing fire activity that also peaked in early October but lingered into November. Interestingly, even though fire counts were

  19. Aerosol meteorology of the Maritime Continent for the 2012 7SEAS southwest monsoon intensive study - Part 1: regional-scale phenomena

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, Jeffrey S.; Xian, Peng; Holben, Brent N.; Hyer, Edward J.; Reid, Elizabeth A.; Salinas, Santo V.; Zhang, Jianglong; Campbell, James R.; Chew, Boon Ning; Holz, Robert E.; Kuciauskas, Arunas P.; Lagrosas, Nofel; Posselt, Derek J.; Sampson, Charles R.; Walker, Annette L.; Welton, E. Judd; Zhang, Chidong

    2016-11-01

    The largest 7 Southeast Asian Studies (7SEAS) operation period within the Maritime Continent (MC) occurred in the August-September 2012 biomass burning season. Included was an enhanced deployment of Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sun photometers, multiple lidars, and field measurements to observe transported smoke and pollution as it left the MC and entered the southwest monsoon trough. Here we describe the nature of the overall 2012 southwest monsoon (SWM) and biomass burning season to give context to the 2012 deployment. The MC in 2012 was in a slightly warm El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase and with spatially typical burning activity. However, overall fire counts for 2012 were 10 % lower than the Reid et al. (2012) baseline, with regions of significant departures from this norm, ranging from southern Sumatra (+30 %) to southern Kalimantan (-42 %). Fire activity and monsoonal flows for the dominant burning regions were modulated by a series of intraseasonal oscillation events (e.g., Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO, and boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation, or BSISO). As is typical, fire activity systematically progressed eastward over time, starting with central Sumatran fire activity in June related to a moderately strong MJO event which brought drier air from the Indian Ocean aloft and enhanced monsoonal flow. Further burning in Sumatra and Kalimantan Borneo occurred in a series of significant events from early August to a peak in the first week of October, ending when the monsoon started to migrate back to its wintertime northeastern flow conditions in mid-October. Significant monsoonal enhancements and flow reversals collinear with tropical cyclone (TC) activity and easterly waves were also observed. Islands of the eastern MC, including Sulawesi, Java, and Timor, showed less sensitivity to monsoonal variation, with slowly increasing fire activity that also peaked in early October but lingered into November. Interestingly, even though fire

  20. Climate co-variability between South America and Southern Africa at interannual, intraseasonal and synoptic scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puaud, Yohan; Pohl, Benjamin; Fauchereau, Nicolas; Macron, Clémence; Beltrando, Gérard

    2017-06-01

    This paper investigates and quantifies co-variability between large-scale convection in the South American and Southern African sectors at different timescales (interannual, intraseasonal and synoptic), during the austral summer seasons (November-February) from 1979 to 2012. Multivariate analyses (Canonical Correlation Analysis and Principal Component Analysis) are applied to daily outgoing longwave radiation (OLR, used as a proxy for atmospheric convection) anomalies to extract the principal modes of variability and co-variability in each and between both regions, filtered to consider the appropriate time-scales. At the interannual timescale, results confirm the predominant role of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), favoring enhanced convection over both southeastern Brazil and northern Argentina on the one hand, and tropical Africa and the western Indian Ocean on the other hand. At the intraseasonal timescale, the leading mode of co-variability is related to modulations of large-scale atmospheric convection over most of South America, and 10 days later, tropical Southern Africa. This mode accounts for the impacts of the Madden-Julian-oscillation (MJO) over these regions: identifying robust co-variability at the intraseasonal timescale between both regions require thus to consider a temporal shift between the two sectors. At the synoptic scale, however, co-variability consists mostly of a synchronous modulation of the large-scale atmospheric convection over the South American and Southern African sectors. This results from the development of concomitant Rossby waves forming a continuous wave train over the South Atlantic in the mid-latitudes, affecting both the South Atlantic and South Indian Convergence Zones. Among the days when convection shows significant anomalies (30 % of the total days in each sector), this synchronous mode occurs about 25 % of the time, individual Rossby waves modulating convection over one single region only during the remaining 75

  1. Sub-Seasonal Predictability And Dynamical Processes: Long-Range Interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunet, G.

    2016-12-01

    World leading global forecasting systems in 2016 operate with around 20-100 ensemble members and a horizontal resolution in the range 13 to 50km with of order 100 vertical levels. We can currently predict large-scale weather patterns and regime transitions out to a month or more ahead and high-impact events, such as tropical cyclones, out to two weeks ahead. Under certain conditions, even sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts have some predictive skill. Especially the intra-seasonal variability has a lot more degrees of freedom than seasonal variability and the associated dynamical and physical processes are numerous and complex. As an example research in the last three decades on tropical modes of ocean-atmosphere interaction, like the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) oceanic phenomenon and its complex interaction between the large scale tropical atmosphere and organised moist convection, has permitted significant advances in seasonal prediction. Similarly research in the intra-seasonal variability has point out another ocean-atmosphere interaction mode, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), as an important source of predictability. MJO modulates significantly the mid-latitude intra-seasonal variability through tropical and mid-latitude teleconnections, like the Canadian winter temperature and precipitation. Another example is the two-way link between the MJO and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) modulates significantly weather regimes over Western Europe. Pushing forecast leadtime to sub-seasonal scale will unfold a new landscape of predictability, model uncertainties and ensemble prediction issues. The richness of the sources of predictability associated with these processes could provide increase predictive skill in all seasons and regions. The associated socio-economic benefits are indeed promising to inform reliably the risk of high-impact weather, including tropical cyclones, droughts, floods, heat waves and the waxing and waning of monsoon precipitation

  2. Multiscale low-frequency circulation modes in the global atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, K.-M.; Sheu, P.-J.; Kang, I.-S.

    1994-01-01

    In this paper, fundamental multiscale circulation modes in the global atmosphere are identified with the objective of providing better understanding of atmospheric low-frequency variabilities over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. With the use of a combination of rotated principal component technique, singular spectrum analysis, and phase space portraits, three categories of basic multiscale modes in the atmosphere are found. The first is the interannual-mode (IAM), which is dominated by time scales longer than a year and can be attributed to heating and circulation anomalies associated with the coupled tropical ocean-atmosphere, in particular the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. The second is a set of tropical intraseasonal modes consisting of three separate multiscale patterns (ISO-1, -2, -3) related to tropical heating that can be identified with the different phases of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), including its teleconnection to the extratropics. The ISO spatial and temporal patterns suggest that the extratropical wave train in the North Pacific and North America is related to heating over the Maritime Continent and that the evolution of the MJO around the equator may require forcing from the extratropics spawning convection over the Indian Ocean. The third category represents extratropical intraseasonal oscillations arising from internal dynamics of the basic-state circulation. In the Northern Hemisphere, there are two distinct circulation modes with multiple frequencies in this category: the Pacific/North America (PNA) and the North Atlantic/Eurasia (NAE). In the Southern Hemisphere, two phase-locked modes (PSA-1 and PSA-2) are found depicting an eastward propagating wave train from eastern Australia, via the Pacific South America to the South Atlantic. The extratropical modes exhibit temporal characteristics such as phase locking and harmonic oscillations possibly associated with quadratically nonlinear dynamical systems. Additionally, the

  3. The Roadmap of Marine Observation Development Fostering the Understanding of Weather-Climate Characteristics in the Indonesian Maritime Continent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakya, A. E.; Ramdhani, A.; Florida, N.; Nurhayati, N.

    2016-12-01

    Indonesian Maritime Continent (MC) territory has a unique characteristics of weather-climate variation, due to its geographical position. MC accommodates complex atmosphere-ocean interaction phenomena with huge impacts not only on inter-seasonal, but also on global weather and short-term climate variation like Monsoons, Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole Mode (IOD). These phenomena give major contribution to the dynamics of rainfall patterns and climate variability in Indonesian MC. The above complexities are more predictable because observations in the Central and Eastern Pacific (TAO/TRITON) and Indian Ocean (RAMA) are available. Moreover, global remote-sensing observations through satellites have also been developed and its data is easily accessed. At present, maritime weather observation in Indonesia relies on global cooperation, observations carried out using remote sensing equipment, and in-situ observations made by the National Ministries/Institution. However, availability of marine observation data in the MC is very limited, especially inside Indonesian waters. It thus serves a challenge to BMKG to become more active in participating national and international partnership programs to encourage continuous in-situ marine observations. BMKG and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration America (NOAA) has a joint cooperation to maintain RAMA array as part of the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) and to deliver in-situ oceanic and atmospheric data trhough so-called Indonesian Program Initiative on Maritime Observations and Analysis (Indonesia PRIMA). Within next 5 years, BMKG will focus to foster in-situ marine observation on surface as well as underwater through various observation methods. The development of which is framed within the relevant international programs such as - among others - Year of Maritime Continent (YMC) 2017, JCOMM 5 session 2017, and Tropical Pacific Observation System

  4. Impact of Convection on Surface Fluxes Observed During LASP/DYNAMO 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-12-01

    CONVECTION ON SURFACE FLUXES OBSERVED DURING LASP/ DYNAMO 2011 by Matthew S. Cushanick December 2014 Thesis Advisor: Qing Wang Second Reader...December 2014 Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS IMPACT OF CONVECTION ON SURFACE FLUXES OBSERVED DURING LASP/ DYNAMO 2011 6...during the Littoral Air-Sea Processes (LASP)/Dynamics of Madden-Julian Oscillation ( DYNAMO ) experiment. The low-level measurements from the WP-30 are

  5. Impacto de los eventos de El Niño Southern oscillation (ENSO sobre la leishmaniosis cutánea en Sucre, Venezuela, a través del uso de información satelital, 1994 - 2003

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gilberto Cabaniel S

    2005-03-01

    Full Text Available Objetivos: Describir los posibles impactos de El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO sobre la leishmaniosis cutánea (LC en Sucre, Venezuela en el período 1994-2003. Materiales y Métodos: La data climática se obtuvo de sistemas remotos y fue clasificada de acuerdo con la National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA en periodos El Niño, Neutral o La Niña, usando el Southern Oscillation Index (SOI como indicador de variabilidad. Los datos de LC fueron obtenidos de la Gerencia de Saneamiento Ambiental en Sucre. Se realizaron comparaciones de las variaciones anuales y desviaciones de las tendencias medias, entre la incidencia de LC y variabilidad climática, así como modelos de regresión. Resultados: Se registraron entre 1994 -2003 en Sucre 2212 casos de LC. Se observaron tres fases importantes de El Niño: 1994-1995, 1997-1998 y 2001-2003, la más relevante correspondió a 1997-1998, que fue seguido de un periodo frío y lluvioso en 1999 (La Niña. Durante 1999/2000, se registraron 360 casos de LC en Sucre, con importante variabilidad intraanual, se observó un incremento en 66,7% de los casos de LC (F=10,06, p=0,0051 asociado a la presencia de La Niña débil (poco frío y lluvioso. Los modelos mostraron que a mayores valores del SOI menor incidencia de LC (r 2 =0,3308, p=0,0504. El incremento sobre la tendencia media de las precipitaciones se asoció con incrementos sobre las tendencias de la LC durante 1994-2003 (p=0,0358. Conclusiones: Estos datos reflejan la importancia del ENSO sobre la incidencia de la LC, abriendo una nueva línea de investigación con posible impacto en la predicción y monitoreo con relevancia en salud pública.

  6. Low-frequency oscillations in radiative-convective models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu, Qi; Randall, D.A.

    1991-12-31

    Although eastward propagation is usually regarded as an essential feature of the low-frequency ``Madden-Julian oscillation`` observed in the tropical atmosphere, many observations indicate that there is an important stationary or quasi-stationary component of the oscillation. Yasunari (1979), for example, investigated the stationary 30--60 day variation in upper tropospheric cloudiness in the Asian summer monsoon region. In a case study of the 30--60 day oscillation. Hsu et al. (1990) found a strong stationary oscillation of the divergence, outgoing longwave mdiadon and other fields. A recent observational study by Weickmann and Khalsa (1990) offers further evidence that the Madden-Julian oscillation has an important stationary component. In this paper, we present evidence that intraseasonal oscillations can be produced by local radiative and convective processes. This suggests that the observed propagating Madden-Julian wave is produced by interactions between these local processes and the large scale motion field, and is not essential for the existence of the observed oscillation.

  7. Low-frequency oscillations in radiative-convective models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu, Qi; Randall, D.A.

    1991-01-01

    Although eastward propagation is usually regarded as an essential feature of the low-frequency Madden-Julian oscillation'' observed in the tropical atmosphere, many observations indicate that there is an important stationary or quasi-stationary component of the oscillation. Yasunari (1979), for example, investigated the stationary 30--60 day variation in upper tropospheric cloudiness in the Asian summer monsoon region. In a case study of the 30--60 day oscillation. Hsu et al. (1990) found a strong stationary oscillation of the divergence, outgoing longwave mdiadon and other fields. A recent observational study by Weickmann and Khalsa (1990) offers further evidence that the Madden-Julian oscillation has an important stationary component. In this paper, we present evidence that intraseasonal oscillations can be produced by local radiative and convective processes. This suggests that the observed propagating Madden-Julian wave is produced by interactions between these local processes and the large scale motion field, and is not essential for the existence of the observed oscillation.

  8. Algunas características espectrales de las oscilaciones en la atmósfera sobre el oeste del Caribe

    OpenAIRE

    Soley Alfaro, Francisco Javier; Amador Astúa, Jorge Alberto

    1982-01-01

    Se investigan en este trabajo los modos de onda dominantes en la troposfera del Oeste del Caribe mediante eL uso de la transformada discreta de Fourier de la función de autocorrelación para dif erentes parámetros y alguna s es tac i ones de 1 área. Los es pec tros de las series temporales de temperatura, geopotencial y las componentes zonal y meridional del viento fueron estimados usando datos de la Isla de San Andrés para el año de 1972 y de la Isla del Cisne para los años 1970, 197...

  9. Composición y abundancia de artrópodos epígeos del Parque Nacional Llanos de Challe: impactos del ENOS de 1997 y efectos del hábitat pedológico Abundance and composition of epigean arthropods from Llanos de Challe National Park: impacts of ENSO-1997 and effects of the pedological habitat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JORGE CEPEDA-PIZARRO

    2005-12-01

    -activity of epigean arthropods -Tenebrionidae in particular- inhabiting at Llanos de Challe National Park were investigated. This park is located in the Chile's transitional coastal desert, Atacama's III Region. Sampling was conducted during three days per month (september, october and december in the period of maximal biological activity of the system, and in 1989 (dry no-ENSO year, 1997 (intense ENSO-year, and 2000 (damp no-ENSO year. Two pedological contrasting sites were used to compare the effects of the factors being examined: a coastal dune habitat and an interior stony habitat. The presence of 15 orders of Arthropoda was recorded. Hexapods made the > 95 % of total specimens captured (9,065 individuals, with Collembola (36.1 % and Coleoptera (29.8 % being the orders with the highest numerical representativeness. The numbers of orders with active members varied slightly among years: 13 orders were recorded in 1989 (44 % rainfall below the average, 15 in 1997 (443 % rainfall above the average, and 11 in 2000 (52 % above average. The effect of the ENSO event was clearly reflected in the numerical contribution both for the years studied and for most of the recorded taxa. Although more subtlety, this effect was also reflected in the assemblage composition of dominant taxa and between pedological habitats, particularly in regard to Tenebrionidae and Formicidae. Specially in the coastal dunes, Tenebrionidae clearly dominated the assemblage of epigean arthropods, being Gyriosomus Guérin-Méneville the most abundant and diverse genus. The dominance of Gyriosomus sets a number of questions regarding the levels of endemism, species diversity and distribution, and their functional role in the ecosystem studied

  10. Oscilaciones del clima postglacial del Noroeste de España registradas en los sedimentos de la Ría de Vigo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramón MARGALEF LÓPEZ

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Existe una relación estrecha entre las características de un medio ambiente y los organismos que en él se desarrollan; estos organismos pueden emplearse, por tanto, como indicadores de aquellas propiedades —temperatura, salinidad, etc.—, cuando nos es imposible su apreciación directa, que es lo que ocurre en relación con épocas pasadas. El estudio de restos de organismos indicadores, contenidos en materiales depositados de manera continuada, permite deducir la sucesión de los climas. Así procede la paleontología en general y, en una escala más fina, la palinología, es decir, la investigación del polen y otros vestigios intercalados en el espesor de las turberas, a la que se deben los ciatos más consistentes sobre climatología del cuaternario.

  11. Reacciones en la precipitación ante oscilaciones oceánicas en sus temperaturas superficiales: Depresión tectónica central, Costa Rica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marvin E. Quesada

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Se analiza la influencia del evento el ENOS en la precipitación de la Depresión Tectónica Central de Costa Rica, encontrándose que dicha respuesta es diferente, dada la diferencia de temperaturas superficiales entre océano Pacífico y Atlántico. Estos pueden contribuir en mayor o menor grado en la producción de masas de aire cargadas de humedad que puedan llegar hasta esta región. Similarmente, dicha región presenta irregularidades geomorfológicas en las dos principales sub-cuencas Virilla y Grande de San Ramón que contribuyen aún más con las diferencias en los niveles de precipitación, siendo esta reducción en la precipitación aún mayor en la sub-cuenca del río Grande de San Ramón.

  12. Early alert system for oscillations detection applied to the Central of Laguna Verde; Sistema de alerta temprana para deteccion de oscilaciones aplicada a la Central Laguna Verde

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Calleros M, G.; Zapata Y, M.; Avila N, A.; Herrera H, S. F., E-mail: gcm9acpp@cfe.gob.mx [Comision Federal de Electricidad, Central Nucleoelectrica Laguna Veder, Carretera Cardel-Nautla Km 42.5, Alto Lucero, Veracruz (Mexico)

    2011-11-15

    The code Early Alert System developed by Engineering of the Reactor of the nuclear power plant of Laguna Verde is presented, showing its reliability like preventive and corrective instrument to external interferences to the reactor core, due to equipment malfunction associated to the typical systems of a nuclear power plant, as those that control the reactor pressure, those that feed water to the reactor, those that control the valves of the main turbine. With this purpose, real cases of application of the System are shown where the results are compared with the independent evaluations carried out by the supplier, observing compatibility in both results. The benefits of the logarithm are discussed in the nuclear industry as soon as in non nuclear ambits. (Author)

  13. Considerations for an appropriate representation of non attenuated oscillations in electrical systems; Consideraciones para una adequada representacion de oscilaciones no amortiguadas en sistemas electricos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sarasua, Antonio E. [Universidad Nacional de San Juan (Argentina). Inst. de Energia Electrica]. E-mail: sarasua@iee.unsj.edu.ar; Handschin, Edmund [Dortmund Univesitaet (Germany); Mercado, Pedro E. [Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientficas y Tecnicas (CONICET), Buenos Aires (Argentina)]|[Universidad Nacional de San Juan (Argentina). Inst. de Energia Electrica; Rehtanz, Christian [ABB (Switzerland)

    2001-07-01

    This article analyses and proposes the most important considerations to be taken into account regarding the models development which suitably represent not amortized oscillations observed in electric power transmission systems, which are not susceptible of being detected by the current calculation tools. Among others considerations, it has been discussed the technique applications of non-lineal analysis, such as the Bifurcation theory, and it is proposed necessary calculation tools in relation to their representation.

  14. Relação entre o Multivariate Enso Index (MEI e a TSM das Regiões dos Niños com a Precipitação em Regiões Homogêneas do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fábio Ziemann Lopes

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available On Rio Grande do Sul the seasons of the year are well defined being felt, in its peculiar characteristics, in the winter,in the spring, in the summer and in the autumn. The pluviometric regime is quite regular and the precipitations are welldistributed during all the year on the State. The Multivariate Enso Index (MEI lacks of a study about its relations withthe precipitation. It is a numeric index that integrates the action of different factors that characterize the phenomenon andthat oscilate between positive values for the warm phase, the El Niño, and negative values for the cold phase, the La Niña.It considers, in its composition, the following variables: sea level pressure, zonal and meridional wind components at thesurface, the Sea Surface Temperature (SST, the air temperature at the surface and a cloudiness indicator. This work hadthe objective to study the relations between the MEI and the SST of the Niño regions with the precipitations on Rio Grandedo Sul State. For this, it were utilized total monthly data of precipitation from 40 meteorological stations of Rio Grande doSul, bimonthly data of MEI and SST of the Niño regions for the period 1950 to 2002. The correlation coefficients betweenthe precipitation of the Rio Grande Do Sul with the MEI and the regions of the Niños showed low values due to the factof if using only the months of the beginning and end of the event. The MEI, although to be a more complex index of themethodologic point of view, it does not improve the coefficients of correlation with the precipitation of the State of the RioGrande do Sul, and it always presents lesser or equal values to obtained when using the TSM of the regions of the Niñosin the out/nov and nov/dez coupled of months. The MEI and the Niños regions 3 and 3.4 present the highest correlationcoefficient with the Rio Grande do Sul State precipitation for the bimonths oct/nov and nov/dec.

  15. GEOS-5 Seasonal Forecast System: ENSO Prediction Skill and Bias

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borovikov, Anna; Kovach, Robin; Marshak, Jelena

    2018-01-01

    The GEOS-5 AOGCM known as S2S-1.0 has been in service from June 2012 through January 2018 (Borovikov et al. 2017). The atmospheric component of S2S-1.0 is Fortuna-2.5, the same that was used for the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), but with adjusted parameterization of moist processes and turbulence. The ocean component is the Modular Ocean Model version 4 (MOM4). The sea ice component is the Community Ice CodE, version 4 (CICE). The land surface model is a catchment-based hydrological model coupled to the multi-layer snow model. The AGCM uses a Cartesian grid with a 1 deg × 1.25 deg horizontal resolution and 72 hybrid vertical levels with the upper most level at 0.01 hPa. OGCM nominal resolution of the tripolar grid is 1/2 deg, with a meridional equatorial refinement to 1/4 deg. In the coupled model initialization, selected atmospheric variables are constrained with MERRA. The Goddard Earth Observing System integrated Ocean Data Assimilation System (GEOS-iODAS) is used for both ocean state and sea ice initialization. SST, T and S profiles and sea ice concentration were assimilated.

  16. Claves para una ensoñación lunaria

    OpenAIRE

    Romera Pintor, Irene

    2006-01-01

    En el presente capítulo Romera Pintor ha analizado Lunaria a través de una perspectiva crítica que nadie había abordado hasta ahora. La escritura de Consolo es polisémica, palimpséstica, referencial. En Lunaria el lenguaje conforma un tupido entramado de voces entrecruzadas que se descomponen y multiplican a través del poder de sugestión de cada palabra. Se trata de un texto bellísimo y a la vez extremadamente difícil de descodificar. Faltaba por llevar a cabo esta colosal tarea: la de enfren...

  17. Study of the global and regional climatic impacts of ENSO ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), Ministry of Climate Change, Islamabad, Pakistan. Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Earth System Physics Section, Strada Costiera 11, 34151 Trieste, Italy. Birbal Sahni Institute of Palaeosciences, 53 University Road, Lucknow 226 007, India.

  18. Imaging of salt structure; Gan`enso kozo no imaging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Akama, K.; Saeki, T. [Japan National Corp., Tokyo (Japan). Technology Research Center; Matsuoka, T. [Japan Petroleum Exploration Corp., Tokyo (Japan)

    1996-10-01

    Due to the improvement of algorithm and the advancement of calculation performance, the imaging by depth migration before stacking is being put into practice from the viewpoint of both calculation cost and accuracy. A lot of imaging examples have been already reported from the survey areas with complicated velocity structures, such as the North Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. Effectiveness of the method has been confirmed. For imaging techniques in Japan National Oil Corporation and Japan Petroleum Exploration Co., Ltd., high-speed depth migration before stacking and high efficiency velocity structure estimation technique have been investigated. This paper describes necessary care to be taken when using depth focusing analysis (DFA) for correcting a velocity model, as an interim stage of case study. The results of depth migration before stacking using dip moveout (DMO) velocity were further inferior to the section obtained by the migration after tracking. Tendency of velocity errors was distinctly deviated with the variation of depth and horizontal position. It was not suitable for modifying the velocity model using DFA. 4 refs., 4 figs.

  19. Andean elevation control on tropical Pacific climate and ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Ran; Poulsen, Christopher J.

    2014-08-01

    Late Cenozoic marine proxy data record a long-term transition in the tropical Pacific from El Niño-like conditions with reduced zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, deepened thermocline, and reduced upwelling in the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) to conditions similar to modern. This transition coincides with kilometer-scale uplift of the central Andes. To understand whether the rise of the Andes contributed to tropical Pacific climate evolution, we performed experiments with the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Community Climate System Model version 4 to quantify changes in tropical Pacific climate and El Niño-Southern Oscillation as a function of Andean elevations. Our results demonstrate that uplift increases the equatorial east-west SST gradient and Walker circulation. The rise of the Andes from 1 to 3 km increases the SST gradient by 0.8°C and Walker circulation by 60% due to strengthened radiative cooling by enhanced low-cloud formation in the EEP. This cooling effect is largest in the southeastern tropical Pacific and accounts for about one half of the reconstructed SST cooling along the Peru coast. The uplift also strengthens upwelling north of the EEP, consistent with documented increases in biological productivity in this region, and decreases the frequency of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the number of strong El Niño events. Simulated responses to Andean uplift are generally consistent with the late Cenozoic proxy records, but too small in magnitude. Taken together, our results indicate that Andean uplift was likely one of the multiple factors that contributed to the long-term evolution of both the mean climate state and the interannual variability in the tropical Pacific.

  20. Interannual variation of East Asian Winter Monsoon and ENSO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Yi; Sperber, Kenneth R.; Boyle, James S.

    1996-12-01

    This paper examines the interannual variation of the East Asian winter monsoon and its relationship with EJSO based on the 1979-1995 NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. Two stratifications of cold surges are used. The first one, described as the conventional cold surges, indicates that the surge frequency reaches a urn one year after El Nino events. The second one, originated from the same region as the first, is defined as the maximum wind events near the South China Sea. The variation of this stratification of surges is found to be in good agreement with the South Oscillation Index (SOI). Low SOI (high SOI) events coincide with years of low (high) surge frequency. The interannual variation of averaged meridional wind near the South China Sea and western Pacific is dominated by the South China Sea cold surges, and is also well correlated (R--O.82) with the SOI. Strong wind seasons are associated with La Nina and high SOI events; likewise, weak wind years are linked with El Nino and low SOI cases. This pattern is restricted north of the equator within the region of (OON-20 N, 11OOE-1300E), and is confined to the near surface layer. The surface Siberian high, 500 hPa trough and 200 hPa jetstream, all representing the large-scale monsoon flow, are found to be weaker than normal during El Nino years. In particular, the interannual variation of the Siberian high is in general agreement with the SOL.

  1. Towards the use of HYCOM in Coupled ENSO Prediction: Assessment of ENSO Skill in Forced Global HYCOM

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-08-10

    eastern part. The simulated thermocline tilt is too low, which is likely another symptom of weak mean wind forcing. Mean salinity misfits range from...temperature and salinity biases do not compensate in such as way that the pycnocline tilt matches that of Argo. A complete set of mean and RMS misfits were...provide increased confidence in projections for decision making. RELATED PROJECTS "Optimized Infrastructure for the Earth System Prediction Capability

  2. Beyond deadlock

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randall, David A.

    2013-11-01

    atmospheric global circulation models can represent the effects of clouds through "conventional" parameterizations on coarse grids, through the use of global high-resolution grids, or through the use of embedded cloud-resolving models as superparameterizations in a lower resolution global model. Recent work on conventional parameterizations has been aimed at improving the representation of entrainment, including nondeterministic effects, and achieving resolution independence. Global high-resolution grids have been very useful for studying the interaction of clouds with the global circulation out to time scales of about one simulated year; longer simulations are not yet feasible. Superparameterizations have already been used in simulations longer than a century and have succeeded in simulating the Madden-Julian Oscillation, the diurnal cycle of precipitation, and other phenomena that have presented challenges for conventionally parameterized models.

  3. Multiscale Variability of the Tropopause Transition Layer During AMIE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, Richard H. [Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric Science; Birner, Thomas [Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric Science

    2016-11-28

    An investigation has been carried out of the influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) using data from the ARM MJO Investigation Experiment (A