WorldWideScience

Sample records for ensemble phase 1a

  1. Phase Locking a Clock Oscillator to a Coherent Atomic Ensemble

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Kohlhaas

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The sensitivity of an atomic interferometer increases when the phase evolution of its quantum superposition state is measured over a longer interrogation interval. In practice, a limit is set by the measurement process, which returns not the phase but its projection in terms of population difference on two energetic levels. The phase interval over which the relation can be inverted is thus limited to the interval [-π/2,π/2]; going beyond it introduces an ambiguity in the readout, hence a sensitivity loss. Here, we extend the unambiguous interval to probe the phase evolution of an atomic ensemble using coherence-preserving measurements and phase corrections, and demonstrate the phase lock of the clock oscillator to an atomic superposition state. We propose a protocol based on the phase lock to improve atomic clocks limited by local oscillator noise, and foresee the application to other atomic interferometers such as inertial sensors.

  2. On the structure and phase transitions of power-law Poissonian ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eliazar, Iddo; Oshanin, Gleb

    2012-10-01

    Power-law Poissonian ensembles are Poisson processes that are defined on the positive half-line, and that are governed by power-law intensities. Power-law Poissonian ensembles are stochastic objects of fundamental significance; they uniquely display an array of fractal features and they uniquely generate a span of important applications. In this paper we apply three different methods—oligarchic analysis, Lorenzian analysis and heterogeneity analysis—to explore power-law Poissonian ensembles. The amalgamation of these analyses, combined with the topology of power-law Poissonian ensembles, establishes a detailed and multi-faceted picture of the statistical structure and the statistical phase transitions of these elemental ensembles.

  3. Multilevel Monte Carlo methods using ensemble level mixed MsFEM for two-phase flow and transport simulations

    KAUST Repository

    Efendiev, Yalchin R.; Iliev, Oleg; Kronsbein, C.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we propose multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods that use ensemble level mixed multiscale methods in the simulations of multiphase flow and transport. The contribution of this paper is twofold: (1) a design of ensemble level mixed

  4. Measurement of gas-liquid two-phase flow in bubble columns using ensemble correlation PIV

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Delnoij, E.; Kuipers, J.A.M.; van Swaaij, Willibrordus Petrus Maria; Westerweel, J.

    2000-01-01

    This paper highlights the development of a new ensemble correlation, multiphase flow PIV technique. The particular approach discussed in this paper is a straightforward extension of single-phase PIV and one of the major advantages of the technique is that it employs a single CCD camera. This

  5. Ensemble distribution for immiscible two-phase flow in porous media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savani, Isha; Bedeaux, Dick; Kjelstrup, Signe; Vassvik, Morten; Sinha, Santanu; Hansen, Alex

    2017-02-01

    We construct an ensemble distribution to describe steady immiscible two-phase flow of two incompressible fluids in a porous medium. The system is found to be ergodic. The distribution is used to compute macroscopic flow parameters. In particular, we find an expression for the overall mobility of the system from the ensemble distribution. The entropy production at the scale of the porous medium is shown to give the expected product of the average flow and its driving force, obtained from a black-box description. We test numerically some of the central theoretical results.

  6. Mechanisms of appearance of amplitude and phase chimera states in ensembles of nonlocally coupled chaotic systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogomolov, Sergey A.; Slepnev, Andrei V.; Strelkova, Galina I.; Schöll, Eckehard; Anishchenko, Vadim S.

    2017-02-01

    We explore the bifurcation transition from coherence to incoherence in ensembles of nonlocally coupled chaotic systems. It is firstly shown that two types of chimera states, namely, amplitude and phase, can be found in a network of coupled logistic maps, while only amplitude chimera states can be observed in a ring of continuous-time chaotic systems. We reveal a bifurcation mechanism by analyzing the evolution of space-time profiles and the coupling function with varying coupling coefficient and formulate the necessary and sufficient conditions for realizing the chimera states in the ensembles.

  7. Quantum phases of electric dipole ensembles in atom chips

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pachos, Jiannis K.

    2005-01-01

    We present how a phase factor is generated when an electric dipole moves along a closed trajectory inside a magnetic field gradient. The similarity of this situation with charged particles in a magnetic field can be employed to simulate condensed matter models, such as the quantum Hall effect and chiral spin Hamiltonians, with ultra cold atoms integrated on atom chips. To illustrate this we consider a triangular configuration of a two-dimensional optical lattice, where the chiral spin Hamiltonian σ-> i -bar σ-> j xσ-> k can be generated between any three neighbours on a lattice yielding an experimentally implementable chiral ground state

  8. Chimera at the phase-flip transition of an ensemble of identical nonlinear oscillators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopal, R.; Chandrasekar, V. K.; Senthilkumar, D. V.; Venkatesan, A.; Lakshmanan, M.

    2018-06-01

    A complex collective emerging behavior characterized by coexisting coherent and incoherent domains is termed as a chimera state. We bring out the existence of a new type of chimera in a nonlocally coupled ensemble of identical oscillators driven by a common dynamic environment. The latter facilitates the onset of phase-flip bifurcation/transitions among the coupled oscillators of the ensemble, while the nonlocal coupling induces a partial asynchronization among the out-of-phase synchronized oscillators at this onset. This leads to the manifestation of coexisting out-of-phase synchronized coherent domains interspersed by asynchronous incoherent domains elucidating the existence of a different type of chimera state. In addition to this, a rich variety of other collective behaviors such as clusters with phase-flip transition, conventional chimera, solitary state and complete synchronized state which have been reported using different coupling architectures are found to be induced by the employed couplings for appropriate coupling strengths. The robustness of the resulting dynamics is demonstrated in ensembles of two paradigmatic models, namely Rössler oscillators and Stuart-Landau oscillators.

  9. Ensemble of hybrid genetic algorithm for two-dimensional phase unwrapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balakrishnan, D.; Quan, C.; Tay, C. J.

    2013-06-01

    The phase unwrapping is the final and trickiest step in any phase retrieval technique. Phase unwrapping by artificial intelligence methods (optimization algorithms) such as hybrid genetic algorithm, reverse simulated annealing, particle swarm optimization, minimum cost matching showed better results than conventional phase unwrapping methods. In this paper, Ensemble of hybrid genetic algorithm with parallel populations is proposed to solve the branch-cut phase unwrapping problem. In a single populated hybrid genetic algorithm, the selection, cross-over and mutation operators are applied to obtain new population in every generation. The parameters and choice of operators will affect the performance of the hybrid genetic algorithm. The ensemble of hybrid genetic algorithm will facilitate to have different parameters set and different choice of operators simultaneously. Each population will use different set of parameters and the offspring of each population will compete against the offspring of all other populations, which use different set of parameters. The effectiveness of proposed algorithm is demonstrated by phase unwrapping examples and advantages of the proposed method are discussed.

  10. Assessing probabilistic predictions of ENSO phase and intensity from the North American Multimodel Ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tippett, Michael K.; Ranganathan, Meghana; L'Heureux, Michelle; Barnston, Anthony G.; DelSole, Timothy

    2017-05-01

    Here we examine the skill of three, five, and seven-category monthly ENSO probability forecasts (1982-2015) from single and multi-model ensemble integrations of the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) project. Three-category forecasts are typical and provide probabilities for the ENSO phase (El Niño, La Niña or neutral). Additional forecast categories indicate the likelihood of ENSO conditions being weak, moderate or strong. The level of skill observed for differing numbers of forecast categories can help to determine the appropriate degree of forecast precision. However, the dependence of the skill score itself on the number of forecast categories must be taken into account. For reliable forecasts with same quality, the ranked probability skill score (RPSS) is fairly insensitive to the number of categories, while the logarithmic skill score (LSS) is an information measure and increases as categories are added. The ignorance skill score decreases to zero as forecast categories are added, regardless of skill level. For all models, forecast formats and skill scores, the northern spring predictability barrier explains much of the dependence of skill on target month and forecast lead. RPSS values for monthly ENSO forecasts show little dependence on the number of categories. However, the LSS of multimodel ensemble forecasts with five and seven categories show statistically significant advantages over the three-category forecasts for the targets and leads that are least affected by the spring predictability barrier. These findings indicate that current prediction systems are capable of providing more detailed probabilistic forecasts of ENSO phase and amplitude than are typically provided.

  11. Instanton-dyon ensembles reproduce deconfinement and chiral restoration phase transitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shuryak, Edward

    2018-03-01

    Paradigm shift in gauge topology at finite temperatures, from the instantons to their constituents - instanton-dyons - has recently lead to studies of their ensembles and very significant advances. Like instantons, they have fermionic zero modes, and their collectivization at suffciently high density explains the chiral symmetry breaking transition. Unlike instantons, these objects have electric and magnetic charges. Simulations of the instanton-dyon ensembles have demonstrated that their back reaction on the Polyakov line modifies its potential and generates the deconfinement phase transition. For the Nc = 2 gauge theory the transition is second order, for QCD-like theory with Nc = 2 and two light quark flavors Nf = 2 both transitions are weak crossovers at happening at about the same condition. Introduction of quark-flavor-dependent periodicity phases (imaginary chemical potentials) leads to drastic changes in both transitions. In particulaly, in the so called Z(Nc) - QCD model the deconfinement transforms to strong first order transition, while the chiral condensate does not disappear at all. The talk will also cover more detailed studies of correlations between the dyons, effective eta' mass and other screening masses.

  12. Phase structures of the black Dp-D(p+4)-brane system in various ensembles II: electrical and thermodynamic stability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xiao, Zhiguang; Zhou, Da

    2015-01-01

    By incorporating the electrical stability condition into the discussion, we continue the study on the thermodynamic phase structures of the Dp-D(p+4) black brane in GG, GC, CG, CC ensembles defined in our previous paper http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/JHEP07(2015)134. We find that including the electrical stability conditions in addition to the thermal stability conditions does not modify the phase structure of the GG ensemble but puts more constraints on the parameter space where black branes can stably exist in GC, CG, CC ensembles. In particular, the van der Waals-like phase structure which was supposed to be present in these ensembles when only thermal stability condition is considered would no longer be visible, since the phase of the small black brane is unstable under electrical fluctuations. However, the symmetry of the phase structure by interchanging the two kinds of brane charges and potentials is still preserved, which is argued to be the result of T-duality.

  13. Ensemble averaged two-phase flow numerical simulation in vertical ducts for the void-studying behavior in BWRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohsen Sharifpur; Mahmoud Salehi; Ali Nouri Brojerdi; Ali Arefmanesh

    2003-01-01

    Investigation upon generation of vapor in the two-phase flow and predication of its behaviour is an important problem in nuclear industries. Here, the use of the ensemble averaging is to drive the governing equations for each phase in the bubbly two phase flow (two fluid model) and to simulate the water channel inside the four fuel rods along the vertical line. The governing equations will be simplified by having the experience on BWRs and data, which are obtained to find the distribution of void fraction, velocity and other parameters for each phase along the tube. Finally, we compare the results with the simulated results obtained from RELAP 5 Mode 2. The advantage of this work is to offer a new technique to solve the ensemble averaged two-phase flow by imposing the energy balance equation rather than to use the ordinary energy equations. (author)

  14. Multilevel Monte Carlo methods using ensemble level mixed MsFEM for two-phase flow and transport simulations

    KAUST Repository

    Efendiev, Yalchin R.

    2013-08-21

    In this paper, we propose multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods that use ensemble level mixed multiscale methods in the simulations of multiphase flow and transport. The contribution of this paper is twofold: (1) a design of ensemble level mixed multiscale finite element methods and (2) a novel use of mixed multiscale finite element methods within multilevel Monte Carlo techniques to speed up the computations. The main idea of ensemble level multiscale methods is to construct local multiscale basis functions that can be used for any member of the ensemble. In this paper, we consider two ensemble level mixed multiscale finite element methods: (1) the no-local-solve-online ensemble level method (NLSO); and (2) the local-solve-online ensemble level method (LSO). The first approach was proposed in Aarnes and Efendiev (SIAM J. Sci. Comput. 30(5):2319-2339, 2008) while the second approach is new. Both mixed multiscale methods use a number of snapshots of the permeability media in generating multiscale basis functions. As a result, in the off-line stage, we construct multiple basis functions for each coarse region where basis functions correspond to different realizations. In the no-local-solve-online ensemble level method, one uses the whole set of precomputed basis functions to approximate the solution for an arbitrary realization. In the local-solve-online ensemble level method, one uses the precomputed functions to construct a multiscale basis for a particular realization. With this basis, the solution corresponding to this particular realization is approximated in LSO mixed multiscale finite element method (MsFEM). In both approaches, the accuracy of the method is related to the number of snapshots computed based on different realizations that one uses to precompute a multiscale basis. In this paper, ensemble level multiscale methods are used in multilevel Monte Carlo methods (Giles 2008a, Oper.Res. 56(3):607-617, b). In multilevel Monte Carlo methods, more accurate

  15. Phase transition and thermodynamic geometry of f (R ) AdS black holes in the grand canonical ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Gu-Qiang; Mo, Jie-Xiong

    2016-06-01

    The phase transition of a four-dimensional charged AdS black hole solution in the R +f (R ) gravity with constant curvature is investigated in the grand canonical ensemble, where we find novel characteristics quite different from that in the canonical ensemble. There exists no critical point for T -S curve while in former research critical point was found for both the T -S curve and T -r+ curve when the electric charge of f (R ) black holes is kept fixed. Moreover, we derive the explicit expression for the specific heat, the analog of volume expansion coefficient and isothermal compressibility coefficient when the electric potential of f (R ) AdS black hole is fixed. The specific heat CΦ encounters a divergence when 0 b . This finding also differs from the result in the canonical ensemble, where there may be two, one or no divergence points for the specific heat CQ . To examine the phase structure newly found in the grand canonical ensemble, we appeal to the well-known thermodynamic geometry tools and derive the analytic expressions for both the Weinhold scalar curvature and Ruppeiner scalar curvature. It is shown that they diverge exactly where the specific heat CΦ diverges.

  16. Sentinel-1A Product Geolocation Accuracy: Commissioning Phase Results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrian Schubert

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Sentinel-1A (S1A is an Earth observation satellite carrying a state-of-the-art Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR imaging instrument. It was launched by the European Space Agency (ESA on 3 April 2014. With the end of the in-orbit commissioning phase having been completed at the end of September 2014, S1A data products are already consistently providing highly accurate geolocation. StripMap (SM mode products were acquired regularly and tested for geolocation accuracy and consistency during dedicated corner reflector (CR campaigns. At the completion of this phase, small geometric inconsistencies had been understood and mitigated, with the high quality of the final product geolocation estimates reflecting the mission’s success thus far. This paper describes the measurement campaign, the methods used during geolocation estimation, and presents best estimates of the product Absolute Location Error (ALE available at the beginning of S1A’s operational phase.

  17. Soft sensing for two-phase flow using an ensemble Kalman filter

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gryzlov, A.; Leskens, M.; Mudde, R.F.

    2009-01-01

    A new approach for real-time monitoring of horizontal wells, which is based on data assimilation concepts, is presented. Such methodology can be used when the direct measurement of multiphase flow rates is unfeasible or even unavailable. The real-time estimator proposed is an ensemble Kalman filter

  18. Robust Deterministic Controlled Phase-Flip Gate and Controlled-Not Gate Based on Atomic Ensembles Embedded in Double-Sided Optical Cavities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, A.-Peng; Cheng, Liu-Yong; Guo, Qi; Zhang, Shou

    2018-02-01

    We first propose a scheme for controlled phase-flip gate between a flying photon qubit and the collective spin wave (magnon) of an atomic ensemble assisted by double-sided cavity quantum systems. Then we propose a deterministic controlled-not gate on magnon qubits with parity-check building blocks. Both the gates can be accomplished with 100% success probability in principle. Atomic ensemble is employed so that light-matter coupling is remarkably improved by collective enhancement. We assess the performance of the gates and the results show that they can be faithfully constituted with current experimental techniques.

  19. Lidar inelastic multiple-scattering parameters of cirrus particle ensembles determined with geometrical-optics crystal phase functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reichardt, J; Hess, M; Macke, A

    2000-04-20

    Multiple-scattering correction factors for cirrus particle extinction coefficients measured with Raman and high spectral resolution lidars are calculated with a radiative-transfer model. Cirrus particle-ensemble phase functions are computed from single-crystal phase functions derived in a geometrical-optics approximation. Seven crystal types are considered. In cirrus clouds with height-independent particle extinction coefficients the general pattern of the multiple-scattering parameters has a steep onset at cloud base with values of 0.5-0.7 followed by a gradual and monotonic decrease to 0.1-0.2 at cloud top. The larger the scattering particles are, the more gradual is the rate of decrease. Multiple-scattering parameters of complex crystals and of imperfect hexagonal columns and plates can be well approximated by those of projected-area equivalent ice spheres, whereas perfect hexagonal crystals show values as much as 70% higher than those of spheres. The dependencies of the multiple-scattering parameters on cirrus particle spectrum, base height, and geometric depth and on the lidar parameters laser wavelength and receiver field of view, are discussed, and a set of multiple-scattering parameter profiles for the correction of extinction measurements in homogeneous cirrus is provided.

  20. Diffusion relaxation times of nonequilibrium isolated small bodies and their solid phase ensembles to equilibrium states

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tovbin, Yu. K.

    2017-08-01

    The possibility of obtaining analytical estimates in a diffusion approximation of the times needed by nonequilibrium small bodies to relax to their equilibrium states based on knowledge of the mass transfer coefficient is considered. This coefficient is expressed as the product of the self-diffusion coefficient and the thermodynamic factor. A set of equations for the diffusion transport of mixture components is formulated, characteristic scales of the size of microheterogeneous phases are identified, and effective mass transfer coefficients are constructed for them. Allowing for the developed interface of coexisting and immiscible phases along with the porosity of solid phases is discussed. This approach can be applied to the diffusion equalization of concentrations of solid mixture components in many physicochemical systems: the mutual diffusion of components in multicomponent systems (alloys, semiconductors, solid mixtures of inert gases) and the mass transfer of an absorbed mobile component in the voids of a matrix consisting of slow components or a mixed composition of mobile and slow components (e.g., hydrogen in metals, oxygen in oxides, and the transfer of molecules through membranes of different natures, including polymeric).

  1. Insights into Watson-Crick/Hoogsteen breathing dynamics and damage repair from the solution structure and dynamic ensemble of DNA duplexes containing m1A.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sathyamoorthy, Bharathwaj; Shi, Honglue; Zhou, Huiqing; Xue, Yi; Rangadurai, Atul; Merriman, Dawn K; Al-Hashimi, Hashim M

    2017-05-19

    In the canonical DNA double helix, Watson-Crick (WC) base pairs (bps) exist in dynamic equilibrium with sparsely populated (∼0.02-0.4%) and short-lived (lifetimes ∼0.2-2.5 ms) Hoogsteen (HG) bps. To gain insights into transient HG bps, we used solution-state nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, including measurements of residual dipolar couplings and molecular dynamics simulations, to examine how a single HG bp trapped using the N1-methylated adenine (m1A) lesion affects the structural and dynamic properties of two duplexes. The solution structure and dynamic ensembles of the duplexes reveals that in both cases, m1A forms a m1A•T HG bp, which is accompanied by local and global structural and dynamic perturbations in the double helix. These include a bias toward the BI backbone conformation; sugar repuckering, major-groove directed kinking (∼9°); and local melting of neighboring WC bps. These results provide atomic insights into WC/HG breathing dynamics in unmodified DNA duplexes as well as identify structural and dynamic signatures that could play roles in m1A recognition and repair. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

  2. Insights into Watson–Crick/Hoogsteen breathing dynamics and damage repair from the solution structure and dynamic ensemble of DNA duplexes containing m1A

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sathyamoorthy, Bharathwaj; Shi, Honglue; Zhou, Huiqing; Xue, Yi; Rangadurai, Atul; Merriman, Dawn K.

    2017-01-01

    Abstract In the canonical DNA double helix, Watson–Crick (WC) base pairs (bps) exist in dynamic equilibrium with sparsely populated (∼0.02–0.4%) and short-lived (lifetimes ∼0.2–2.5 ms) Hoogsteen (HG) bps. To gain insights into transient HG bps, we used solution-state nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, including measurements of residual dipolar couplings and molecular dynamics simulations, to examine how a single HG bp trapped using the N1-methylated adenine (m1A) lesion affects the structural and dynamic properties of two duplexes. The solution structure and dynamic ensembles of the duplexes reveals that in both cases, m1A forms a m1A•T HG bp, which is accompanied by local and global structural and dynamic perturbations in the double helix. These include a bias toward the BI backbone conformation; sugar repuckering, major-groove directed kinking (∼9°); and local melting of neighboring WC bps. These results provide atomic insights into WC/HG breathing dynamics in unmodified DNA duplexes as well as identify structural and dynamic signatures that could play roles in m1A recognition and repair. PMID:28369571

  3. Ensemble Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Re, Matteo; Valentini, Giorgio

    2012-03-01

    Ensemble methods are statistical and computational learning procedures reminiscent of the human social learning behavior of seeking several opinions before making any crucial decision. The idea of combining the opinions of different "experts" to obtain an overall “ensemble” decision is rooted in our culture at least from the classical age of ancient Greece, and it has been formalized during the Enlightenment with the Condorcet Jury Theorem[45]), which proved that the judgment of a committee is superior to those of individuals, provided the individuals have reasonable competence. Ensembles are sets of learning machines that combine in some way their decisions, or their learning algorithms, or different views of data, or other specific characteristics to obtain more reliable and more accurate predictions in supervised and unsupervised learning problems [48,116]. A simple example is represented by the majority vote ensemble, by which the decisions of different learning machines are combined, and the class that receives the majority of “votes” (i.e., the class predicted by the majority of the learning machines) is the class predicted by the overall ensemble [158]. In the literature, a plethora of terms other than ensembles has been used, such as fusion, combination, aggregation, and committee, to indicate sets of learning machines that work together to solve a machine learning problem [19,40,56,66,99,108,123], but in this chapter we maintain the term ensemble in its widest meaning, in order to include the whole range of combination methods. Nowadays, ensemble methods represent one of the main current research lines in machine learning [48,116], and the interest of the research community on ensemble methods is witnessed by conferences and workshops specifically devoted to ensembles, first of all the multiple classifier systems (MCS) conference organized by Roli, Kittler, Windeatt, and other researchers of this area [14,62,85,149,173]. Several theories have been

  4. NYYD Ensemble

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    2002-01-01

    NYYD Ensemble'i duost Traksmann - Lukk E.-S. Tüüri teosega "Symbiosis", mis on salvestatud ka hiljuti ilmunud NYYD Ensemble'i CDle. 2. märtsil Rakvere Teatri väikeses saalis ja 3. märtsil Rotermanni Soolalaos, kavas Tüür, Kaumann, Berio, Reich, Yun, Hauta-aho, Buckinx

  5. Phase 1a: Literature overview of health in South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Botha, Adele

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This chapter provides a detailed explanation of each of the phases that were applied during the development of the DHIE. To conceptualise the DHIE for South Africa, it was important to understand the literature on the existing local health situation...

  6. Ensembl 2004.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birney, E; Andrews, D; Bevan, P; Caccamo, M; Cameron, G; Chen, Y; Clarke, L; Coates, G; Cox, T; Cuff, J; Curwen, V; Cutts, T; Down, T; Durbin, R; Eyras, E; Fernandez-Suarez, X M; Gane, P; Gibbins, B; Gilbert, J; Hammond, M; Hotz, H; Iyer, V; Kahari, A; Jekosch, K; Kasprzyk, A; Keefe, D; Keenan, S; Lehvaslaiho, H; McVicker, G; Melsopp, C; Meidl, P; Mongin, E; Pettett, R; Potter, S; Proctor, G; Rae, M; Searle, S; Slater, G; Smedley, D; Smith, J; Spooner, W; Stabenau, A; Stalker, J; Storey, R; Ureta-Vidal, A; Woodwark, C; Clamp, M; Hubbard, T

    2004-01-01

    The Ensembl (http://www.ensembl.org/) database project provides a bioinformatics framework to organize biology around the sequences of large genomes. It is a comprehensive and integrated source of annotation of large genome sequences, available via interactive website, web services or flat files. As well as being one of the leading sources of genome annotation, Ensembl is an open source software engineering project to develop a portable system able to handle very large genomes and associated requirements. The facilities of the system range from sequence analysis to data storage and visualization and installations exist around the world both in companies and at academic sites. With a total of nine genome sequences available from Ensembl and more genomes to follow, recent developments have focused mainly on closer integration between genomes and external data.

  7. Ensembl 2017

    OpenAIRE

    Aken, Bronwen L.; Achuthan, Premanand; Akanni, Wasiu; Amode, M. Ridwan; Bernsdorff, Friederike; Bhai, Jyothish; Billis, Konstantinos; Carvalho-Silva, Denise; Cummins, Carla; Clapham, Peter; Gil, Laurent; Gir?n, Carlos Garc?a; Gordon, Leo; Hourlier, Thibaut; Hunt, Sarah E.

    2016-01-01

    Ensembl (www.ensembl.org) is a database and genome browser for enabling research on vertebrate genomes. We import, analyse, curate and integrate a diverse collection of large-scale reference data to create a more comprehensive view of genome biology than would be possible from any individual dataset. Our extensive data resources include evidence-based gene and regulatory region annotation, genome variation and gene trees. An accompanying suite of tools, infrastructure and programmatic access ...

  8. Ensemble Sampling

    OpenAIRE

    Lu, Xiuyuan; Van Roy, Benjamin

    2017-01-01

    Thompson sampling has emerged as an effective heuristic for a broad range of online decision problems. In its basic form, the algorithm requires computing and sampling from a posterior distribution over models, which is tractable only for simple special cases. This paper develops ensemble sampling, which aims to approximate Thompson sampling while maintaining tractability even in the face of complex models such as neural networks. Ensemble sampling dramatically expands on the range of applica...

  9. Measurement of the quantum superposition state of an imaging ensemble of photons prepared in orbital angular momentum states using a phase-diversity method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uribe-Patarroyo, Nestor; Alvarez-Herrero, Alberto; Belenguer, Tomas

    2010-01-01

    We propose the use of a phase-diversity technique to estimate the orbital angular momentum (OAM) superposition state of an ensemble of photons that passes through an optical system, proceeding from an extended object. The phase-diversity technique permits the estimation of the optical transfer function (OTF) of an imaging optical system. As the OTF is derived directly from the wave-front characteristics of the observed light, we redefine the phase-diversity technique in terms of a superposition of OAM states. We test this new technique experimentally and find coherent results among different tests, which gives us confidence in the estimation of the photon ensemble state. We find that this technique not only allows us to estimate the square of the amplitude of each OAM state, but also the relative phases among all states, thus providing complete information about the quantum state of the photons. This technique could be used to measure the OAM spectrum of extended objects in astronomy or in an optical communication scheme using OAM states. In this sense, the use of extended images could lead to new techniques in which the communication is further multiplexed along the field.

  10. Eigenfunction statistics of Wishart Brownian ensembles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shukla, Pragya

    2017-01-01

    We theoretically analyze the eigenfunction fluctuation measures for a Hermitian ensemble which appears as an intermediate state of the perturbation of a stationary ensemble by another stationary ensemble of Wishart (Laguerre) type. Similar to the perturbation by a Gaussian stationary ensemble, the measures undergo a diffusive dynamics in terms of the perturbation parameter but the energy-dependence of the fluctuations is different in the two cases. This may have important consequences for the eigenfunction dynamics as well as phase transition studies in many areas of complexity where Brownian ensembles appear. (paper)

  11. The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME): Phase-1 Seasonal to Interannual Prediction, Phase-2 Toward Developing Intra-Seasonal Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirtman, Ben P.; Min, Dughong; Infanti, Johnna M.; Kinter, James L., III; Paolino, Daniel A.; Zhang, Qin; vandenDool, Huug; Saha, Suranjana; Mendez, Malaquias Pena; Becker, Emily; hide

    2013-01-01

    The recent US National Academies report "Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability" was unequivocal in recommending the need for the development of a North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) operational predictive capability. Indeed, this effort is required to meet the specific tailored regional prediction and decision support needs of a large community of climate information users. The multi-model ensemble approach has proven extremely effective at quantifying prediction uncertainty due to uncertainty in model formulation, and has proven to produce better prediction quality (on average) then any single model ensemble. This multi-model approach is the basis for several international collaborative prediction research efforts, an operational European system and there are numerous examples of how this multi-model ensemble approach yields superior forecasts compared to any single model. Based on two NOAA Climate Test Bed (CTB) NMME workshops (February 18, and April 8, 2011) a collaborative and coordinated implementation strategy for a NMME prediction system has been developed and is currently delivering real-time seasonal-to-interannual predictions on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) operational schedule. The hindcast and real-time prediction data is readily available (e.g., http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.Models/.NMME/) and in graphical format from CPC (http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51yf/NMME/index.html). Moreover, the NMME forecast are already currently being used as guidance for operational forecasters. This paper describes the new NMME effort, presents an overview of the multi-model forecast quality, and the complementary skill associated with individual models.

  12. First-order dynamical phase transition in models of glasses: an approach based on ensembles of histories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garrahan, Juan P; Jack, Robert L; Lecomte, Vivien; Duijvendijk, Kristina van; Wijland, Frederic van; Pitard, Estelle

    2009-01-01

    We investigate the dynamics of kinetically constrained models of glass formers by analysing the statistics of trajectories of the dynamics, or histories, using large deviation function methods. We show that, in general, these models exhibit a first-order dynamical transition between active and inactive dynamical phases. We argue that the dynamical heterogeneities displayed by these systems are a manifestation of dynamical first-order phase coexistence. In particular, we calculate dynamical large deviation functions, both analytically and numerically, for the Fredrickson-Andersen model, the East model, and constrained lattice gas models. We also show how large deviation functions can be obtained from a Landau-like theory for dynamical fluctuations. We discuss possibilities for similar dynamical phase-coexistence behaviour in other systems with heterogeneous dynamics

  13. Two-color quark matter: U(1)A restoration, superfluidity, and quarkyonic phase

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brauner, Tomas; Fukushima, Kenji; Hidaka, Yoshimasa

    2009-01-01

    We discuss the phase structure of quantum chromodynamics (QCD) with two colors and two flavors of light quarks. This is motivated by the increasing interest in the QCD phase diagram as follows: (1) The QCD critical point search has been under intensive dispute and its location and existence suffer from uncertainty of effective U(1) A symmetry restoration. (2) A new phase called quarkyonic matter is drawing theoretical and experimental attention but it is not clear whether it can coexist with diquark condensation. We point out that two-color QCD is nontrivial enough to contain essential ingredients for (1) and (2) both, and most importantly, is a system without the sign problem in numerical simulations on the lattice. We adopt the two-flavor Nambu-Jona-Lasinio model extended with the two-color Polyakov loop and make quantitative predictions that can be tested by lattice simulations.

  14. ATMOSPHERIC PHASE DELAY CORRECTION OF D-INSAR BASED ON SENTINEL-1A

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Li

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we used the Generic Atmospheric Correction Online Service for InSAR (GACOS tropospheric delay maps to correct the atmospheric phase delay of the differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar (D-InSAR monitoring, and we improved the accuracy of subsidence monitoring using D-InSAR technology. Atmospheric phase delay, as one of the most important errors that limit the monitoring accuracy of InSAR, would lead to the masking of true phase in subsidence monitoring. For the problem, this paper used the Sentinel-1A images and the tropospheric delay maps got from GACOS to monitor the subsidence of the Yellow River Delta in Shandong Province. The conventional D-InSAR processing was performed using the GAMMA software. The MATLAB codes were used to correct the atmospheric delay of the D-InSAR results. The results before and after the atmospheric phase delay correction were verified and analyzed in the main subsidence area. The experimental results show that atmospheric phase influences the deformation results to a certain extent. After the correction, the measurement error of vertical deformation is reduced by about 18 mm, which proves that the removal of atmospheric effects can improve the accuracy of the D-InSAR monitoring.

  15. DYRK1A Is a Regulator of S-Phase Entry in Hepatic Progenitor Cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kruitwagen, Hedwig S; Westendorp, Bart; Viebahn, Cornelia S; Post, Krista; van Wolferen, Monique E; Oosterhoff, Loes A; Egan, David A; Delabar, Jean-Maurice; Toussaint, Mathilda J; Schotanus, Baukje A; de Bruin, Alain; Rothuizen, Jan; Penning, Louis C; Spee, Bart

    2018-01-15

    Hepatic progenitor cells (HPCs) are adult liver stem cells that act as second line of defense in liver regeneration. They are normally quiescent, but in case of severe liver damage, HPC proliferation is triggered by external activation mechanisms from their niche. Although several important proproliferative mechanisms have been described, it is not known which key intracellular regulators govern the switch between HPC quiescence and active cell cycle. We performed a high-throughput kinome small interfering RNA (siRNA) screen in HepaRG cells, a HPC-like cell line, and evaluated the effect on proliferation with a 5-ethynyl-2'-deoxyuridine (EdU) incorporation assay. One hit increased the percentage of EdU-positive cells after knockdown: dual specificity tyrosine phosphorylation regulated kinase 1A (DYRK1A). Although upon DYRK1A silencing, the percentage of EdU- and phosphorylated histone H3 (pH3)-positive cells was increased, and total cell numbers were not increased, possibly through a subsequent delay in cell cycle progression. This phenotype was confirmed with chemical inhibition of DYRK1A using harmine and with primary HPCs cultured as liver organoids. DYRK1A inhibition impaired Dimerization Partner, RB-like, E2F, and multivulva class B (DREAM) complex formation in HPCs and abolished its transcriptional repression on cell cycle progression. To further analyze DYRK1A function in HPC proliferation, liver organoid cultures were established from mBACtgDyrk1A mice, which harbor one extra copy of the murine Dyrk1a gene (Dyrk+++). Dyrk+++ organoids had both a reduced percentage of EdU-positive cells and reduced proliferation compared with wild-type organoids. This study provides evidence for an essential role of DYRK1A as balanced regulator of S-phase entry in HPCs. An exact gene dosage is crucial, as both DYRK1A deficiency and overexpression affect HPC cell cycle progression.

  16. Ensemble averaged multi-phase Eulerian model for columnar/equiaxed solidification of a binary alloy: II. Simulation of the columnar-to-equiaxed transition (CET)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ciobanas, A I; Fautrelle, Y

    2007-01-01

    A new multi-phase Eulerian model for the columnar and equiaxed dendritic solidification has been developed. In this paper we first focus on the numerical simulation of quasi-steady solidification experiments in order to obtain corresponding CET maps. We have identified three main zones on the CET map: the pure columnar, the pure equiaxed zone and finally the mixed columnar+equiaxed zone. The mixed c/e zone was further quantified by means of a columnar fraction ε c which quantifies in a rigorous way the two coexisting structures. Since it intrinsically includes the solutal and the mechanical blocking effects, the new ensemble model unifies the semi-empirical Hunt's approach (pure mechanical blocking mechanism) and the Martorano et al approach (pure solutal blocking mechanism). Secondly the present model was used to simulate unidirectional solidification experiments. It was found that the columnar front evolved in a quasi-steady state until a time very close to the critical CET moment. It is also found that the equiaxed nucleation undercooling is close to the maximum columnar dendrite tip undercooling and that the CET is virtually independent of the equiaxed zone ahead of the columnar front. If the equiaxed zone is not taken into account it is observed that the columnar front velocity exhibits a sudden increase at the beginning of the solidification followed by a quasi-plateau corresponding to a quasi-state at the columnar tips and finally, above a critical time, an oscillatory evolution. The beginning of the oscillatory evolution of the columnar front was well correlated with the CET position measured in the experiments. We also find that this oscillatory evolution of the columnar front is very favourable for the fragmentation of the columnar dendrites and thus for the CET. In this respect, it seems that the unsteady regime of the columnar front with respect to the local cooling conditions represents the main cause for the CET phenomena, at least for the non

  17. World Music Ensemble: Kulintang

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beegle, Amy C.

    2012-01-01

    As instrumental world music ensembles such as steel pan, mariachi, gamelan and West African drums are becoming more the norm than the exception in North American school music programs, there are other world music ensembles just starting to gain popularity in particular parts of the United States. The kulintang ensemble, a drum and gong ensemble…

  18. MSEBAG: a dynamic classifier ensemble generation based on `minimum-sufficient ensemble' and bagging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lei; Kamel, Mohamed S.

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a dynamic classifier system, MSEBAG, which is characterised by searching for the 'minimum-sufficient ensemble' and bagging at the ensemble level. It adopts an 'over-generation and selection' strategy and aims to achieve a good bias-variance trade-off. In the training phase, MSEBAG first searches for the 'minimum-sufficient ensemble', which maximises the in-sample fitness with the minimal number of base classifiers. Then, starting from the 'minimum-sufficient ensemble', a backward stepwise algorithm is employed to generate a collection of ensembles. The objective is to create a collection of ensembles with a descending fitness on the data, as well as a descending complexity in the structure. MSEBAG dynamically selects the ensembles from the collection for the decision aggregation. The extended adaptive aggregation (EAA) approach, a bagging-style algorithm performed at the ensemble level, is employed for this task. EAA searches for the competent ensembles using a score function, which takes into consideration both the in-sample fitness and the confidence of the statistical inference, and averages the decisions of the selected ensembles to label the test pattern. The experimental results show that the proposed MSEBAG outperforms the benchmarks on average.

  19. Ensemble-based Kalman Filters in Strongly Nonlinear Dynamics

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhaoxia PU; Joshua HACKER

    2009-01-01

    This study examines the effectiveness of ensemble Kalman filters in data assimilation with the strongly nonlinear dynamics of the Lorenz-63 model, and in particular their use in predicting the regime transition that occurs when the model jumps from one basin of attraction to the other. Four configurations of the ensemble-based Kalman filtering data assimilation techniques, including the ensemble Kalman filter, ensemble adjustment Kalman filter, ensemble square root filter and ensemble transform Kalman filter, are evaluated with their ability in predicting the regime transition (also called phase transition) and also are compared in terms of their sensitivity to both observational and sampling errors. The sensitivity of each ensemble-based filter to the size of the ensemble is also examined.

  20. Gas Phase Pressure Effects on the Apparent Thermal Conductivity of JSC-1A Lunar Regolith Simulant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Zeng-Guang; Kleinhenz, Julie E.

    2011-01-01

    Gas phase pressure effects on the apparent thermal conductivity of a JSC-1A/air mixture have been experimentally investigated under steady state thermal conditions from 10 kPa to 100 kPa. The result showed that apparent thermal conductivity of the JSC-1A/air mixture decreased when pressure was lowered to 80 kPa. At 10 kPa, the conductivity decreased to 0.145 W/m/degree C, which is significantly lower than 0.196 W/m/degree C at 100 kPa. This finding is consistent with the results of previous researchers. The reduction of the apparent thermal conductivity at low pressures is ascribed to the Knudsen effect. Since the characteristic length of the void space in bulk JSC-1A varies over a wide range, both the Knudsen regime and continuum regime can coexist in the pore space. The volume ratio of the two regimes varies with pressure. Thus, as gas pressure decreases, the gas volume controlled by Knudsen regime increases. Under Knudsen regime the resistance to the heat flow is higher than that in the continuum regime, resulting in the observed pressure dependency of the apparent thermal conductivity.

  1. Multilevel ensemble Kalman filter

    KAUST Repository

    Chernov, Alexey; Hoel, Haakon; Law, Kody; Nobile, Fabio; Tempone, Raul

    2016-01-01

    This work embeds a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) sampling strategy into the Monte Carlo step of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). In terms of computational cost vs. approximation error the asymptotic performance of the multilevel ensemble Kalman filter (MLEnKF) is superior to the EnKF s.

  2. Entropy of network ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bianconi, Ginestra

    2009-03-01

    In this paper we generalize the concept of random networks to describe network ensembles with nontrivial features by a statistical mechanics approach. This framework is able to describe undirected and directed network ensembles as well as weighted network ensembles. These networks might have nontrivial community structure or, in the case of networks embedded in a given space, they might have a link probability with a nontrivial dependence on the distance between the nodes. These ensembles are characterized by their entropy, which evaluates the cardinality of networks in the ensemble. In particular, in this paper we define and evaluate the structural entropy, i.e., the entropy of the ensembles of undirected uncorrelated simple networks with given degree sequence. We stress the apparent paradox that scale-free degree distributions are characterized by having small structural entropy while they are so widely encountered in natural, social, and technological complex systems. We propose a solution to the paradox by proving that scale-free degree distributions are the most likely degree distribution with the corresponding value of the structural entropy. Finally, the general framework we present in this paper is able to describe microcanonical ensembles of networks as well as canonical or hidden-variable network ensembles with significant implications for the formulation of network-constructing algorithms.

  3. Multilevel ensemble Kalman filter

    KAUST Repository

    Chernov, Alexey

    2016-01-06

    This work embeds a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) sampling strategy into the Monte Carlo step of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). In terms of computational cost vs. approximation error the asymptotic performance of the multilevel ensemble Kalman filter (MLEnKF) is superior to the EnKF s.

  4. The Ensembl REST API: Ensembl Data for Any Language.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yates, Andrew; Beal, Kathryn; Keenan, Stephen; McLaren, William; Pignatelli, Miguel; Ritchie, Graham R S; Ruffier, Magali; Taylor, Kieron; Vullo, Alessandro; Flicek, Paul

    2015-01-01

    We present a Web service to access Ensembl data using Representational State Transfer (REST). The Ensembl REST server enables the easy retrieval of a wide range of Ensembl data by most programming languages, using standard formats such as JSON and FASTA while minimizing client work. We also introduce bindings to the popular Ensembl Variant Effect Predictor tool permitting large-scale programmatic variant analysis independent of any specific programming language. The Ensembl REST API can be accessed at http://rest.ensembl.org and source code is freely available under an Apache 2.0 license from http://github.com/Ensembl/ensembl-rest. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press.

  5. Polycomb Group Proteins RING1A and RING1B Regulate the Vegetative Phase Transition in Arabidopsis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Li

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Polycomb group (PcG protein-mediated gene silencing is a major regulatory mechanism in higher eukaryotes that affects gene expression at the transcriptional level. Here, we report that two conserved homologous PcG proteins, RING1A and RING1B (RING1A/B, are required for global H2A monoubiquitination (H2Aub in Arabidopsis. The mutation of RING1A/B increased the expression of members of the SQUAMOSA PROMOTER BINDING PROTEIN-LIKE (SPL gene family and caused an early vegetative phase transition. The early vegetative phase transition observed in ring1a ring1b double mutant plants was dependent on an SPL family gene, and the H2Aub status of the chromatin at SPL locus was dependent on RING1A/B. Moreover, mutation in RING1A/B affected the miRNA156a-mediated vegetative phase transition, and RING1A/B and the AGO7-miR390-TAS3 pathway were found to additively regulate this transition in Arabidopsis. Together, our results demonstrate that RING1A/B regulates the vegetative phase transition in Arabidopsis through the repression of SPL family genes.

  6. Musical ensembles in Ancient Mesapotamia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krispijn, T.J.H.; Dumbrill, R.; Finkel, I.

    2010-01-01

    Identification of musical instruments from ancient Mesopotamia by comparing musical ensembles attested in Sumerian and Akkadian texts with depicted ensembles. Lexicographical contributions to the Sumerian and Akkadian lexicon.

  7. Phase-ambiguity resolution for QPSK modulation systems. Part 1: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Tien Manh

    1989-01-01

    Part 1 reviews the current phase-ambiguity resolution techniques for QPSK coherent modulation systems. Here, those known and published methods of resolving phase ambiguity for QPSK with and without Forward-Error-Correcting (FEC) are discussed. The necessary background is provided for a complete understanding of the second part where a new technique will be discussed. An appropriate technique to the Consultative Committee for Space Data Systems (CCSDS) is recommended for consideration in future standards on phase-ambiguity resolution for QPSK coherent modulation systems.

  8. Ensemble Data Mining Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oza, Nikunj C.

    2004-01-01

    Ensemble Data Mining Methods, also known as Committee Methods or Model Combiners, are machine learning methods that leverage the power of multiple models to achieve better prediction accuracy than any of the individual models could on their own. The basic goal when designing an ensemble is the same as when establishing a committee of people: each member of the committee should be as competent as possible, but the members should be complementary to one another. If the members are not complementary, Le., if they always agree, then the committee is unnecessary---any one member is sufficient. If the members are complementary, then when one or a few members make an error, the probability is high that the remaining members can correct this error. Research in ensemble methods has largely revolved around designing ensembles consisting of competent yet complementary models.

  9. Ensemble Data Mining Methods

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Ensemble Data Mining Methods, also known as Committee Methods or Model Combiners, are machine learning methods that leverage the power of multiple models to achieve...

  10. Work plan for phase 1A paleochannel studies at the Cheney disposal cell, Grand Junction, Colorado: Draft

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-11-01

    This document will serve as a Work Plan for continuing paleochannel characterization activities at the Cheney disposal site near Grand Junction, Colorado. Elevated levels of nitrate were encountered in ground water from two monitor wells installed in alluvial paleochannels near the Cheney disposal cell in 1994. This triggered a series of investigations (Phase 1) designed to determine the source of nitrate and other chemical constituents in ground water at the site. A comprehensive summary of the Phase 1 field investigations (limited to passive monitoring and modeling studies) conducted by the Remedial Action Contractor (RAC) and Technical Assistance Contractor (TAC) to date is provided in Section 2.0 of this document. Results of Phase 1 were inconclusive regarding the potential interaction between the disposal cell and the paleochannels, so additional Phase 1A investigations are planned. Recommendations for Phase 1A tasks and possible future activities are discussed in Section 3.0. Detailed information on the implementation of the proposed Phase 1A tasks appears in Section 4.0 and will provide the basis for Statements of Work (SOW) for each of these tasks. A detailed sampling plan is provided to ensure quality and a consistency with previous data collection efforts

  11. Work plan for phase 1A paleochannel studies at the Cheney disposal cell, Grand Junction, Colorado: Draft

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-11-01

    This document will serve as a Work Plan for continuing paleochannel characterization activities at the Cheney disposal site near Grand Junction, Colorado. Elevated levels of nitrate were encountered in ground water from two monitor wells installed in alluvial paleochannels near the Cheney disposal cell in 1994. This triggered a series of investigations (Phase 1) designed to determine the source of nitrate and other chemical constituents in ground water at the site. A comprehensive summary of the Phase 1 field investigations (limited to passive monitoring and modeling studies) conducted by the Remedial Action Contractor (RAC) and Technical Assistance Contractor (TAC) to date is provided in Section 2.0 of this document. Results of Phase 1 were inconclusive regarding the potential interaction between the disposal cell and the paleochannels, so additional Phase 1A investigations are planned. Recommendations for Phase 1A tasks and possible future activities are discussed in Section 3.0. Detailed information on the implementation of the proposed Phase 1A tasks appears in Section 4.0 and will provide the basis for Statements of Work (SOW) for each of these tasks. A detailed sampling plan is provided to ensure quality and a consistency with previous data collection efforts.

  12. Ensembl variation resources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marin-Garcia Pablo

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The maturing field of genomics is rapidly increasing the number of sequenced genomes and producing more information from those previously sequenced. Much of this additional information is variation data derived from sampling multiple individuals of a given species with the goal of discovering new variants and characterising the population frequencies of the variants that are already known. These data have immense value for many studies, including those designed to understand evolution and connect genotype to phenotype. Maximising the utility of the data requires that it be stored in an accessible manner that facilitates the integration of variation data with other genome resources such as gene annotation and comparative genomics. Description The Ensembl project provides comprehensive and integrated variation resources for a wide variety of chordate genomes. This paper provides a detailed description of the sources of data and the methods for creating the Ensembl variation databases. It also explores the utility of the information by explaining the range of query options available, from using interactive web displays, to online data mining tools and connecting directly to the data servers programmatically. It gives a good overview of the variation resources and future plans for expanding the variation data within Ensembl. Conclusions Variation data is an important key to understanding the functional and phenotypic differences between individuals. The development of new sequencing and genotyping technologies is greatly increasing the amount of variation data known for almost all genomes. The Ensembl variation resources are integrated into the Ensembl genome browser and provide a comprehensive way to access this data in the context of a widely used genome bioinformatics system. All Ensembl data is freely available at http://www.ensembl.org and from the public MySQL database server at ensembldb.ensembl.org.

  13. Is P-glycoprotein (ABCB1) a phase 0 or a phase 3 colchicine transporter depending on colchicine exposure conditions?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Decleves, Xavier.; Niel, Elisabeth; Debray, Marcel; Scherrmann, Jean-Michel

    2006-01-01

    This study investigates the P-glycoprotein (Pgp)-mediated transport of its substrates in accumulation or efflux modes under steady-state conditions. The kinetics of colchicine uptake and efflux, a substrate of both Pgp and intracellular tubulin, were studied in HL60 and HL60/DNR cells; HL60/DNR cells contain 25 times more Pgp than do HL60 cells. HL60/DNR cells in a medium containing 6.25 nM colchicine, which mimics therapeutic conditions, reached steady-state twice as rapidly as did HL60 cells, and accumulated 24-times less colchicine than did HL60 cells. The Pgp inhibitor GF120918, increased colchicine uptake by HL60 cells 1.2-fold and that of HL60/DNR cells 17-fold, while it had no effect on colchicine efflux from either cell line that had been incubated with colchicine for 24 h. Colchicine kinetics fitted well a two closed-compartment model, showing that the low intracellular accumulation of colchicine in HL60/DNR cells resulted from a 11-fold decrease in colchicine uptake and a 2.3-fold increase in colchicine efflux, that could be attributed to Pgp-mediated efflux activity in HL60/DNR cells. Intracellular colchicine was mainly and similarly distributed in the cytosol in both cell lines. These data demonstrate that the kinetics of the intracellular colchicine accumulation depend on the density of Pgp and that Pgp is more a phase 0 (preventing cellular uptake) than a phase 3 (effluxing intracellular substrate) transporter under steady-state conditions, although the situation is reversed after a short incubation time (30 min), when intracellular free colchicine concentration is probably high enough for it to be removed from the cell by Pgp

  14. 'Lazy' quantum ensembles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parfionov, George; Zapatrin, Roman

    2006-01-01

    We compare different strategies aimed to prepare an ensemble with a given density matrix ρ. Preparing the ensemble of eigenstates of ρ with appropriate probabilities can be treated as 'generous' strategy: it provides maximal accessible information about the state. Another extremity is the so-called 'Scrooge' ensemble, which is mostly stingy in sharing the information. We introduce 'lazy' ensembles which require minimal effort to prepare the density matrix by selecting pure states with respect to completely random choice. We consider two parties, Alice and Bob, playing a kind of game. Bob wishes to guess which pure state is prepared by Alice. His null hypothesis, based on the lack of any information about Alice's intention, is that Alice prepares any pure state with equal probability. Then, the average quantum state measured by Bob turns out to be ρ, and he has to make a new hypothesis about Alice's intention solely based on the information that the observed density matrix is ρ. The arising 'lazy' ensemble is shown to be the alternative hypothesis which minimizes type I error

  15. The semantic similarity ensemble

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Ballatore

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Computational measures of semantic similarity between geographic terms provide valuable support across geographic information retrieval, data mining, and information integration. To date, a wide variety of approaches to geo-semantic similarity have been devised. A judgment of similarity is not intrinsically right or wrong, but obtains a certain degree of cognitive plausibility, depending on how closely it mimics human behavior. Thus selecting the most appropriate measure for a specific task is a significant challenge. To address this issue, we make an analogy between computational similarity measures and soliciting domain expert opinions, which incorporate a subjective set of beliefs, perceptions, hypotheses, and epistemic biases. Following this analogy, we define the semantic similarity ensemble (SSE as a composition of different similarity measures, acting as a panel of experts having to reach a decision on the semantic similarity of a set of geographic terms. The approach is evaluated in comparison to human judgments, and results indicate that an SSE performs better than the average of its parts. Although the best member tends to outperform the ensemble, all ensembles outperform the average performance of each ensemble's member. Hence, in contexts where the best measure is unknown, the ensemble provides a more cognitively plausible approach.

  16. Ensemble inequivalence: Landau theory and the ABC model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, O; Mukamel, D

    2012-01-01

    It is well known that systems with long-range interactions may exhibit different phase diagrams when studied within two different ensembles. In many of the previously studied examples of ensemble inequivalence, the phase diagrams differ only when the transition in one of the ensembles is first order. By contrast, in a recent study of a generalized ABC model, the canonical and grand-canonical ensembles of the model were shown to differ even when they both exhibit a continuous transition. Here we show that the order of the transition where ensemble inequivalence may occur is related to the symmetry properties of the order parameter associated with the transition. This is done by analyzing the Landau expansion of a generic model with long-range interactions. The conclusions drawn from the generic analysis are demonstrated for the ABC model by explicit calculation of its Landau expansion. (paper)

  17. Method of forming an oxide superconducting thin film having an R1A2C3 crystalline phase over an R2A1C1 crystalline phase

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lelental, M.; Romanofsky, H.J.

    1992-01-01

    This patent describes a process which comprises forming a mixed rare earth alkaline earth copper oxide layer on a substrate and converting the mixed rare earth alkaline earth copper oxide layer to an electrically conductive layer. It comprises crystalline R 1 A 2 C 3 oxide phase by heating in the presence of oxygen, wherein rare earth and R is in each instance chosen from among yttrium, lanthanum, samarium, europium, gadolinium, dysprosium, holmium, erbium, thulium, ytterbium, and lutetium and alkaline earth and A is in each instance chosen from among calcium, strontium and barium, characterized in that a crystalline R 2 A 1 C 1 oxide phase is first formed as a layer on the substrate and the crystalline R 1 A 2 C 3 oxide phase is formed over the crystalline R 2 A 1 C 1 oxide phase by coating a mixed rare earth alkaline earth copper oxide on the crystalline R 2 A 1 C 1 oxide phase and heating the mixed rare earth alkaline earth copper oxide to a temperature of at least 1000 degrees C

  18. Measurement of serum amyloid A1 (SAA1), a major isotype of acute phase SAA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yuanyuan; Yamada, Toshiyuki; Satoh, Takahiko; Okuda, Yasuaki

    2006-01-01

    Serum amyloid A (SAA), a plasma precursor of reactive amyloid deposits, is a multigene product. SAA1 and SAA2, with primary structures that are 93% identical (98 of 104 amino acids), behave as acute phase proteins, as demonstrated by their increasing levels in plasma. Heretofore, it has been understood that SAA1 predominates and functions as an isotype in plasma. However, accurate measurements differentiating the two isotypes have not been reported. In this study, using monoclonal antibodies specific for SAA1, we developed an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for SAA1. The levels and ratios of SAA1 in total SAA (TSAA) were investigated in healthy subjects and patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). The SAA1/TSAA ratio was 74 +/- 12% and 77 +/- 12% in healthy subjects and RA patients, respectively. In RA patients, the ratios were not influenced by SAA1 genotype, which has been proposed to affect plasma SAA values. The kinetics of SAA1 in inflamed patients undergoing hemodialysis was found to be parallel with total SAA and C-reactive protein. Finally, this study confirmed that SAA1 is a major isotype of acute phase SAA and may determine total SAA values. This specific assay could be used in the evaluation of SAA behavior in several clinical conditions.

  19. Multilevel ensemble Kalman filtering

    KAUST Repository

    Hoel, Haakon

    2016-01-08

    The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a sequential filtering method that uses an ensemble of particle paths to estimate the means and covariances required by the Kalman filter by the use of sample moments, i.e., the Monte Carlo method. EnKF is often both robust and efficient, but its performance may suffer in settings where the computational cost of accurate simulations of particles is high. The multilevel Monte Carlo method (MLMC) is an extension of classical Monte Carlo methods which by sampling stochastic realizations on a hierarchy of resolutions may reduce the computational cost of moment approximations by orders of magnitude. In this work we have combined the ideas of MLMC and EnKF to construct the multilevel ensemble Kalman filter (MLEnKF) for the setting of finite dimensional state and observation spaces. The main ideas of this method is to compute particle paths on a hierarchy of resolutions and to apply multilevel estimators on the ensemble hierarchy of particles to compute Kalman filter means and covariances. Theoretical results and a numerical study of the performance gains of MLEnKF over EnKF will be presented. Some ideas on the extension of MLEnKF to settings with infinite dimensional state spaces will also be presented.

  20. Neural Network Ensembles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Lars Kai; Salamon, Peter

    1990-01-01

    We propose several means for improving the performance an training of neural networks for classification. We use crossvalidation as a tool for optimizing network parameters and architecture. We show further that the remaining generalization error can be reduced by invoking ensembles of similar...... networks....

  1. Multilevel ensemble Kalman filtering

    KAUST Repository

    Hoel, Haakon; Chernov, Alexey; Law, Kody; Nobile, Fabio; Tempone, Raul

    2016-01-01

    The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a sequential filtering method that uses an ensemble of particle paths to estimate the means and covariances required by the Kalman filter by the use of sample moments, i.e., the Monte Carlo method. EnKF is often both robust and efficient, but its performance may suffer in settings where the computational cost of accurate simulations of particles is high. The multilevel Monte Carlo method (MLMC) is an extension of classical Monte Carlo methods which by sampling stochastic realizations on a hierarchy of resolutions may reduce the computational cost of moment approximations by orders of magnitude. In this work we have combined the ideas of MLMC and EnKF to construct the multilevel ensemble Kalman filter (MLEnKF) for the setting of finite dimensional state and observation spaces. The main ideas of this method is to compute particle paths on a hierarchy of resolutions and to apply multilevel estimators on the ensemble hierarchy of particles to compute Kalman filter means and covariances. Theoretical results and a numerical study of the performance gains of MLEnKF over EnKF will be presented. Some ideas on the extension of MLEnKF to settings with infinite dimensional state spaces will also be presented.

  2. PAGIS summary report of phase 1: a common methodological approach based on European data and models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cadelli, N.; Cottone, G.; Bertozzi, G.; Girardi, F.

    1984-01-01

    Since 1982 a joint study has been launched by the CEC with the participation of national institutions in the E.C., aiming at a Performance Assessment of Geological Isolation Systems (PAGIS) for HLW disposal. This document is a summary of the first phase of the study which was devoted to the collection of data and models and to the choice of an appropriate methodology. To this purpose, real or national sites have been chosen, which are representative of three types of continental geological formations in the E.C.: clay, granite and salt (although the choices imply no committment of any kind about their final use). Moreover, sub-seabed areas have also been identified. The study covers the following items: - basic data on waste characteristics, site data and repository designs; - methodology, which allows sensitivity and uncertainty analyses to be performed, as well as the assessment of radiation doses to individuals and populations; - preliminary modelling of radionuclide release and migration through the geosphere (near- and far-field) and the biosphere following their various pathways to man; - selection of the most relevant radionuclide release scenarios and their probability of occurrence. Reference values have been selected for the basic data as well as variants covering the various options which are under consideration in the different Countries of the E.C.

  3. Skeletal improvement in patients with Gaucher disease type 1: a phase 2 trial of oral eliglustat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kamath, Ravi S.; Lukina, Elena; Watman, Nora; Dragosky, Marta; Pastores, Gregory M.; Arreguin, Elsa Avila; Rosenbaum, Hanna; Zimran, Ari; Aguzzi, Rasha; Puga, Ana Cristina; Norfleet, Andrea M.; Peterschmitt, M.J.; Rosenthal, Daniel I.

    2014-01-01

    Eliglustat is an investigational oral substrate reduction therapy for Gaucher disease type 1 (GD1). Its skeletal effects were evaluated by prospective monitoring of bone mineral density (BMD), fractures, marrow infiltration by Gaucher cells, focal bone lesions, and infarcts during an open-label, multi-site, single-arm phase 2 trial (NCT00358150). Institutional review board approval and patient informed consent were obtained. Eliglustat (50 or 100 mg) was self-administered by mouth twice daily; 19 patients completed 4 years of treatment. All were skeletally mature (age range, 18-55 years). DXA and MRI assessments were conducted at baseline and annually thereafter. X-rays were obtained annually until month 24, and then every other year. Lumbar spine BMD increased significantly (p = 0.02; n = 15) by a mean (SD) of 9.9 % (14.2 %) from baseline to year 4; corresponding T-scores increased significantly (p = 0.01) from a mean (SD) of -1.6 (1.1) to -0.9 (1.3). Mean femur T-score remained normal through 4 years. Femur MRI showed that 10/18 (56 %) patients had decreased Gaucher cell infiltration compared to baseline; one patient with early improvement had transient worsening at year 4. There were no lumbar spine or femoral fractures and no reported bone crises during the study. At baseline, 8/19 (42 %) patients had focal bone lesions, which remained stable, and 7/19 (37 %) patients had bone infarctions, which improved in one patient by year 2. At year 4, one new asymptomatic, indeterminate bone lesion was discovered that subsequently resolved. Eliglustat may be a therapeutic option for treating the skeletal manifestations of GD1. (orig.)

  4. Skeletal improvement in patients with Gaucher disease type 1: a phase 2 trial of oral eliglustat

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kamath, Ravi S. [Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA (United States); Fairfax Radiological Consultants, Fairfax, VA (United States); Lukina, Elena [Russian Academy of Medical Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation); Watman, Nora [Hospital Ramos Mejia, Buenos Aires (Argentina); Dragosky, Marta [Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social Hospital de Especialidades, Col. La Raza (Mexico); Pastores, Gregory M. [New York University, New York (United States); Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT (United States); Arreguin, Elsa Avila [Instituto Argentino de Diagnostico y Tratamiento, Buenos Aires (Argentina); Rosenbaum, Hanna [Rambam Medical Center, Haifa (Israel); Zimran, Ari [Sha' are Zedek Hebrew University and Hadassah Medical School, Jerusalem (Israel); Aguzzi, Rasha [Genzyme, a Sanofi company, Cambridge, MA (United States); Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Cambridge, MA (United States); Puga, Ana Cristina; Norfleet, Andrea M.; Peterschmitt, M.J. [Genzyme, a Sanofi company, Cambridge, MA (United States); Rosenthal, Daniel I. [Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA (United States); Massachusetts General Hospital, Department of Radiology, Boston, MA (United States)

    2014-10-15

    Eliglustat is an investigational oral substrate reduction therapy for Gaucher disease type 1 (GD1). Its skeletal effects were evaluated by prospective monitoring of bone mineral density (BMD), fractures, marrow infiltration by Gaucher cells, focal bone lesions, and infarcts during an open-label, multi-site, single-arm phase 2 trial (NCT00358150). Institutional review board approval and patient informed consent were obtained. Eliglustat (50 or 100 mg) was self-administered by mouth twice daily; 19 patients completed 4 years of treatment. All were skeletally mature (age range, 18-55 years). DXA and MRI assessments were conducted at baseline and annually thereafter. X-rays were obtained annually until month 24, and then every other year. Lumbar spine BMD increased significantly (p = 0.02; n = 15) by a mean (SD) of 9.9 % (14.2 %) from baseline to year 4; corresponding T-scores increased significantly (p = 0.01) from a mean (SD) of -1.6 (1.1) to -0.9 (1.3). Mean femur T-score remained normal through 4 years. Femur MRI showed that 10/18 (56 %) patients had decreased Gaucher cell infiltration compared to baseline; one patient with early improvement had transient worsening at year 4. There were no lumbar spine or femoral fractures and no reported bone crises during the study. At baseline, 8/19 (42 %) patients had focal bone lesions, which remained stable, and 7/19 (37 %) patients had bone infarctions, which improved in one patient by year 2. At year 4, one new asymptomatic, indeterminate bone lesion was discovered that subsequently resolved. Eliglustat may be a therapeutic option for treating the skeletal manifestations of GD1. (orig.)

  5. Phase 1A Final Report for the AREVA Team Enhanced Accident Tolerant Fuels Concepts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morrell, Mike E. [AREVA Federal Services LLC, Charlotte, NC (United States)

    2015-03-19

    plants large scale investment by the fuel vendors is difficult to justify. Specific EATF enhancements considered by the AREVA team were; Improved performance in DB and BDB conditions; Reduced release to the environment in a catastrophic accident; Improved performance during normal operating conditions; Improved performance if US reactors start to load follow; Equal or improved economics of the fuel; and Improvements to the fuel behavior to support future transportation and storage of the used nuclear fuel (UNF). In pursuit of the above enhancements, EATF technology concepts that our team considered were; Additives to the fuel pellets which included; Chromia doping to increase fission gas retention. Chromia doping has the potential to improve load following characteristics, improve performance of the fuel pellet during clad failure, and potentially lock up cesium into the fuel matrix; Silicon Carbide (SiC) Fibers to improve thermal heat transfer in normal operating conditions which also improves margin in accident conditions and the potential to lock up iodine into the fuel matrix; Nano-diamond particles to enhance thermal conductivity; Coatings on the fuel cladding; and Nine coatings on the existing Zircaloy cladding to increase coping time and reduce clad oxidation and hydrogen generation during accident conditions, as well as reduce hydrogen pickup and mitigate hydride reorientation in the cladding. To facilitate the development process AREVA adopted a formal “Gate Review Process” (GR) that was used to review results and focus resources onto promising technologies to reduce costs and identify the technologies that would potentially be carried forward to LFAs within a 10 year period. During the initial discovery phase of the project AREVA took the decision to be relatively hands off and allow our university and National Laboratory partners to be free thinking and consider options that would not be constrained by preconceived ideas from the fuel vendor. To counter

  6. Representing Color Ensembles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chetverikov, Andrey; Campana, Gianluca; Kristjánsson, Árni

    2017-10-01

    Colors are rarely uniform, yet little is known about how people represent color distributions. We introduce a new method for studying color ensembles based on intertrial learning in visual search. Participants looked for an oddly colored diamond among diamonds with colors taken from either uniform or Gaussian color distributions. On test trials, the targets had various distances in feature space from the mean of the preceding distractor color distribution. Targets on test trials therefore served as probes into probabilistic representations of distractor colors. Test-trial response times revealed a striking similarity between the physical distribution of colors and their internal representations. The results demonstrate that the visual system represents color ensembles in a more detailed way than previously thought, coding not only mean and variance but, most surprisingly, the actual shape (uniform or Gaussian) of the distribution of colors in the environment.

  7. Tailored Random Graph Ensembles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roberts, E S; Annibale, A; Coolen, A C C

    2013-01-01

    Tailored graph ensembles are a developing bridge between biological networks and statistical mechanics. The aim is to use this concept to generate a suite of rigorous tools that can be used to quantify and compare the topology of cellular signalling networks, such as protein-protein interaction networks and gene regulation networks. We calculate exact and explicit formulae for the leading orders in the system size of the Shannon entropies of random graph ensembles constrained with degree distribution and degree-degree correlation. We also construct an ergodic detailed balance Markov chain with non-trivial acceptance probabilities which converges to a strictly uniform measure and is based on edge swaps that conserve all degrees. The acceptance probabilities can be generalized to define Markov chains that target any alternative desired measure on the space of directed or undirected graphs, in order to generate graphs with more sophisticated topological features.

  8. Physical retrieval of precipitation water contents from Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) data. Part 1: A cloud ensemble/radiative parameterization for sensor response (report version)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olson, William S.; Raymond, William H.

    1990-01-01

    The physical retrieval of geophysical parameters based upon remotely sensed data requires a sensor response model which relates the upwelling radiances that the sensor observes to the parameters to be retrieved. In the retrieval of precipitation water contents from satellite passive microwave observations, the sensor response model has two basic components. First, a description of the radiative transfer of microwaves through a precipitating atmosphere must be considered, because it is necessary to establish the physical relationship between precipitation water content and upwelling microwave brightness temperature. Also the spatial response of the satellite microwave sensor (or antenna pattern) must be included in the description of sensor response, since precipitation and the associated brightness temperature field can vary over a typical microwave sensor resolution footprint. A 'population' of convective cells, as well as stratiform clouds, are simulated using a computationally-efficient multi-cylinder cloud model. Ensembles of clouds selected at random from the population, distributed over a 25 km x 25 km model domain, serve as the basis for radiative transfer calculations of upwelling brightness temperatures at the SSM/I frequencies. Sensor spatial response is treated explicitly by convolving the upwelling brightness temperature by the domain-integrated SSM/I antenna patterns. The sensor response model is utilized in precipitation water content retrievals.

  9. Imprinting and recalling cortical ensembles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrillo-Reid, Luis; Yang, Weijian; Bando, Yuki; Peterka, Darcy S; Yuste, Rafael

    2016-08-12

    Neuronal ensembles are coactive groups of neurons that may represent building blocks of cortical circuits. These ensembles could be formed by Hebbian plasticity, whereby synapses between coactive neurons are strengthened. Here we report that repetitive activation with two-photon optogenetics of neuronal populations from ensembles in the visual cortex of awake mice builds neuronal ensembles that recur spontaneously after being imprinted and do not disrupt preexisting ones. Moreover, imprinted ensembles can be recalled by single- cell stimulation and remain coactive on consecutive days. Our results demonstrate the persistent reconfiguration of cortical circuits by two-photon optogenetics into neuronal ensembles that can perform pattern completion. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  10. Quantifying polypeptide conformational space: sensitivity to conformation and ensemble definition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, David C; Lim, Carmay

    2006-08-24

    Quantifying the density of conformations over phase space (the conformational distribution) is needed to model important macromolecular processes such as protein folding. In this work, we quantify the conformational distribution for a simple polypeptide (N-mer polyalanine) using the cumulative distribution function (CDF), which gives the probability that two randomly selected conformations are separated by less than a "conformational" distance and whose inverse gives conformation counts as a function of conformational radius. An important finding is that the conformation counts obtained by the CDF inverse depend critically on the assignment of a conformation's distance span and the ensemble (e.g., unfolded state model): varying ensemble and conformation definition (1 --> 2 A) varies the CDF-based conformation counts for Ala(50) from 10(11) to 10(69). In particular, relatively short molecular dynamics (MD) relaxation of Ala(50)'s random-walk ensemble reduces the number of conformers from 10(55) to 10(14) (using a 1 A root-mean-square-deviation radius conformation definition) pointing to potential disconnections in comparing the results from simplified models of unfolded proteins with those from all-atom MD simulations. Explicit waters are found to roughen the landscape considerably. Under some common conformation definitions, the results herein provide (i) an upper limit to the number of accessible conformations that compose unfolded states of proteins, (ii) the optimal clustering radius/conformation radius for counting conformations for a given energy and solvent model, (iii) a means of comparing various studies, and (iv) an assessment of the applicability of random search in protein folding.

  11. Multilevel ensemble Kalman filtering

    KAUST Repository

    Hoel, Hakon

    2016-06-14

    This work embeds a multilevel Monte Carlo sampling strategy into the Monte Carlo step of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) in the setting of finite dimensional signal evolution and noisy discrete-time observations. The signal dynamics is assumed to be governed by a stochastic differential equation (SDE), and a hierarchy of time grids is introduced for multilevel numerical integration of that SDE. The resulting multilevel EnKF is proved to asymptotically outperform EnKF in terms of computational cost versus approximation accuracy. The theoretical results are illustrated numerically.

  12. Multilevel ensemble Kalman filtering

    KAUST Repository

    Hoel, Hakon; Law, Kody J. H.; Tempone, Raul

    2016-01-01

    This work embeds a multilevel Monte Carlo sampling strategy into the Monte Carlo step of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) in the setting of finite dimensional signal evolution and noisy discrete-time observations. The signal dynamics is assumed to be governed by a stochastic differential equation (SDE), and a hierarchy of time grids is introduced for multilevel numerical integration of that SDE. The resulting multilevel EnKF is proved to asymptotically outperform EnKF in terms of computational cost versus approximation accuracy. The theoretical results are illustrated numerically.

  13. ABCD of Beta Ensembles and Topological Strings

    CERN Document Server

    Krefl, Daniel

    2012-01-01

    We study beta-ensembles with Bn, Cn, and Dn eigenvalue measure and their relation with refined topological strings. Our results generalize the familiar connections between local topological strings and matrix models leading to An measure, and illustrate that all those classical eigenvalue ensembles, and their topological string counterparts, are related one to another via various deformations and specializations, quantum shifts and discrete quotients. We review the solution of the Gaussian models via Macdonald identities, and interpret them as conifold theories. The interpolation between the various models is plainly apparent in this case. For general polynomial potential, we calculate the partition function in the multi-cut phase in a perturbative fashion, beyond tree-level in the large-N limit. The relation to refined topological string orientifolds on the corresponding local geometry is discussed along the way.

  14. Decadal climate predictions improved by ocean ensemble dispersion filtering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kadow, C.; Illing, S.; Kröner, I.; Ulbrich, U.; Cubasch, U.

    2017-06-01

    Decadal predictions by Earth system models aim to capture the state and phase of the climate several years in advance. Atmosphere-ocean interaction plays an important role for such climate forecasts. While short-term weather forecasts represent an initial value problem and long-term climate projections represent a boundary condition problem, the decadal climate prediction falls in-between these two time scales. In recent years, more precise initialization techniques of coupled Earth system models and increased ensemble sizes have improved decadal predictions. However, climate models in general start losing the initialized signal and its predictive skill from one forecast year to the next. Here we show that the climate prediction skill of an Earth system model can be improved by a shift of the ocean state toward the ensemble mean of its individual members at seasonal intervals. We found that this procedure, called ensemble dispersion filter, results in more accurate results than the standard decadal prediction. Global mean and regional temperature, precipitation, and winter cyclone predictions show an increased skill up to 5 years ahead. Furthermore, the novel technique outperforms predictions with larger ensembles and higher resolution. Our results demonstrate how decadal climate predictions benefit from ocean ensemble dispersion filtering toward the ensemble mean.Plain Language SummaryDecadal predictions aim to predict the climate several years in advance. Atmosphere-ocean interaction plays an important role for such climate forecasts. The ocean memory due to its heat capacity holds big potential skill. In recent years, more precise initialization techniques of coupled Earth system models (incl. atmosphere and ocean) have improved decadal predictions. Ensembles are another important aspect. Applying slightly perturbed predictions to trigger the famous butterfly effect results in an ensemble. Instead of evaluating one prediction, but the whole ensemble with its

  15. Diversity in random subspacing ensembles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tsymbal, A.; Pechenizkiy, M.; Cunningham, P.; Kambayashi, Y.; Mohania, M.K.; Wöß, W.

    2004-01-01

    Ensembles of learnt models constitute one of the main current directions in machine learning and data mining. It was shown experimentally and theoretically that in order for an ensemble to be effective, it should consist of classifiers having diversity in their predictions. A number of ways are

  16. PSO-Ensemble Demo Application

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2004-01-01

    Within the framework of the PSO-Ensemble project (FU2101) a demo application has been created. The application use ECMWF ensemble forecasts. Two instances of the application are running; one for Nysted Offshore and one for the total production (except Horns Rev) in the Eltra area. The output...

  17. New concept of statistical ensembles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gorenstein, M.I.

    2009-01-01

    An extension of the standard concept of the statistical ensembles is suggested. Namely, the statistical ensembles with extensive quantities fluctuating according to an externally given distribution is introduced. Applications in the statistical models of multiple hadron production in high energy physics are discussed.

  18. Ensembl 2002: accommodating comparative genomics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clamp, M; Andrews, D; Barker, D; Bevan, P; Cameron, G; Chen, Y; Clark, L; Cox, T; Cuff, J; Curwen, V; Down, T; Durbin, R; Eyras, E; Gilbert, J; Hammond, M; Hubbard, T; Kasprzyk, A; Keefe, D; Lehvaslaiho, H; Iyer, V; Melsopp, C; Mongin, E; Pettett, R; Potter, S; Rust, A; Schmidt, E; Searle, S; Slater, G; Smith, J; Spooner, W; Stabenau, A; Stalker, J; Stupka, E; Ureta-Vidal, A; Vastrik, I; Birney, E

    2003-01-01

    The Ensembl (http://www.ensembl.org/) database project provides a bioinformatics framework to organise biology around the sequences of large genomes. It is a comprehensive source of stable automatic annotation of human, mouse and other genome sequences, available as either an interactive web site or as flat files. Ensembl also integrates manually annotated gene structures from external sources where available. As well as being one of the leading sources of genome annotation, Ensembl is an open source software engineering project to develop a portable system able to handle very large genomes and associated requirements. These range from sequence analysis to data storage and visualisation and installations exist around the world in both companies and at academic sites. With both human and mouse genome sequences available and more vertebrate sequences to follow, many of the recent developments in Ensembl have focusing on developing automatic comparative genome analysis and visualisation.

  19. On Ensemble Nonlinear Kalman Filtering with Symmetric Analysis Ensembles

    KAUST Repository

    Luo, Xiaodong

    2010-09-19

    The ensemble square root filter (EnSRF) [1, 2, 3, 4] is a popular method for data assimilation in high dimensional systems (e.g., geophysics models). Essentially the EnSRF is a Monte Carlo implementation of the conventional Kalman filter (KF) [5, 6]. It is mainly different from the KF at the prediction steps, where it is some ensembles, rather then the means and covariance matrices, of the system state that are propagated forward. In doing this, the EnSRF is computationally more efficient than the KF, since propagating a covariance matrix forward in high dimensional systems is prohibitively expensive. In addition, the EnSRF is also very convenient in implementation. By propagating the ensembles of the system state, the EnSRF can be directly applied to nonlinear systems without any change in comparison to the assimilation procedures in linear systems. However, by adopting the Monte Carlo method, the EnSRF also incurs certain sampling errors. One way to alleviate this problem is to introduce certain symmetry to the ensembles, which can reduce the sampling errors and spurious modes in evaluation of the means and covariances of the ensembles [7]. In this contribution, we present two methods to produce symmetric ensembles. One is based on the unscented transform [8, 9], which leads to the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) [8, 9] and its variant, the ensemble unscented Kalman filter (EnUKF) [7]. The other is based on Stirling’s interpolation formula (SIF), which results in the divided difference filter (DDF) [10]. Here we propose a simplified divided difference filter (sDDF) in the context of ensemble filtering. The similarity and difference between the sDDF and the EnUKF will be discussed. Numerical experiments will also be conducted to investigate the performance of the sDDF and the EnUKF, and compare them to a well‐established EnSRF, the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) [2].

  20. The Use of Artificial-Intelligence-Based Ensembles for Intrusion Detection: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gulshan Kumar

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In supervised learning-based classification, ensembles have been successfully employed to different application domains. In the literature, many researchers have proposed different ensembles by considering different combination methods, training datasets, base classifiers, and many other factors. Artificial-intelligence-(AI- based techniques play prominent role in development of ensemble for intrusion detection (ID and have many benefits over other techniques. However, there is no comprehensive review of ensembles in general and AI-based ensembles for ID to examine and understand their current research status to solve the ID problem. Here, an updated review of ensembles and their taxonomies has been presented in general. The paper also presents the updated review of various AI-based ensembles for ID (in particular during last decade. The related studies of AI-based ensembles are compared by set of evaluation metrics driven from (1 architecture & approach followed; (2 different methods utilized in different phases of ensemble learning; (3 other measures used to evaluate classification performance of the ensembles. The paper also provides the future directions of the research in this area. The paper will help the better understanding of different directions in which research of ensembles has been done in general and specifically: field of intrusion detection systems (IDSs.

  1. Contact planarization of ensemble nanowires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chia, A. C. E.; LaPierre, R. R.

    2011-06-01

    The viability of four organic polymers (S1808, SC200, SU8 and Cyclotene) as filling materials to achieve planarization of ensemble nanowire arrays is reported. Analysis of the porosity, surface roughness and thermal stability of each filling material was performed. Sonication was used as an effective method to remove the tops of the nanowires (NWs) to achieve complete planarization. Ensemble nanowire devices were fully fabricated and I-V measurements confirmed that Cyclotene effectively planarizes the NWs while still serving the role as an insulating layer between the top and bottom contacts. These processes and analysis can be easily implemented into future characterization and fabrication of ensemble NWs for optoelectronic device applications.

  2. On Ensemble Nonlinear Kalman Filtering with Symmetric Analysis Ensembles

    KAUST Repository

    Luo, Xiaodong; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Moroz, Irene M.

    2010-01-01

    However, by adopting the Monte Carlo method, the EnSRF also incurs certain sampling errors. One way to alleviate this problem is to introduce certain symmetry to the ensembles, which can reduce the sampling errors and spurious modes in evaluation of the means and covariances of the ensembles [7]. In this contribution, we present two methods to produce symmetric ensembles. One is based on the unscented transform [8, 9], which leads to the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) [8, 9] and its variant, the ensemble unscented Kalman filter (EnUKF) [7]. The other is based on Stirling’s interpolation formula (SIF), which results in the divided difference filter (DDF) [10]. Here we propose a simplified divided difference filter (sDDF) in the context of ensemble filtering. The similarity and difference between the sDDF and the EnUKF will be discussed. Numerical experiments will also be conducted to investigate the performance of the sDDF and the EnUKF, and compare them to a well‐established EnSRF, the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) [2].

  3. Ensemble manifold regularization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geng, Bo; Tao, Dacheng; Xu, Chao; Yang, Linjun; Hua, Xian-Sheng

    2012-06-01

    We propose an automatic approximation of the intrinsic manifold for general semi-supervised learning (SSL) problems. Unfortunately, it is not trivial to define an optimization function to obtain optimal hyperparameters. Usually, cross validation is applied, but it does not necessarily scale up. Other problems derive from the suboptimality incurred by discrete grid search and the overfitting. Therefore, we develop an ensemble manifold regularization (EMR) framework to approximate the intrinsic manifold by combining several initial guesses. Algorithmically, we designed EMR carefully so it 1) learns both the composite manifold and the semi-supervised learner jointly, 2) is fully automatic for learning the intrinsic manifold hyperparameters implicitly, 3) is conditionally optimal for intrinsic manifold approximation under a mild and reasonable assumption, and 4) is scalable for a large number of candidate manifold hyperparameters, from both time and space perspectives. Furthermore, we prove the convergence property of EMR to the deterministic matrix at rate root-n. Extensive experiments over both synthetic and real data sets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework.

  4. The Ensembl genome database project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hubbard, T; Barker, D; Birney, E; Cameron, G; Chen, Y; Clark, L; Cox, T; Cuff, J; Curwen, V; Down, T; Durbin, R; Eyras, E; Gilbert, J; Hammond, M; Huminiecki, L; Kasprzyk, A; Lehvaslaiho, H; Lijnzaad, P; Melsopp, C; Mongin, E; Pettett, R; Pocock, M; Potter, S; Rust, A; Schmidt, E; Searle, S; Slater, G; Smith, J; Spooner, W; Stabenau, A; Stalker, J; Stupka, E; Ureta-Vidal, A; Vastrik, I; Clamp, M

    2002-01-01

    The Ensembl (http://www.ensembl.org/) database project provides a bioinformatics framework to organise biology around the sequences of large genomes. It is a comprehensive source of stable automatic annotation of the human genome sequence, with confirmed gene predictions that have been integrated with external data sources, and is available as either an interactive web site or as flat files. It is also an open source software engineering project to develop a portable system able to handle very large genomes and associated requirements from sequence analysis to data storage and visualisation. The Ensembl site is one of the leading sources of human genome sequence annotation and provided much of the analysis for publication by the international human genome project of the draft genome. The Ensembl system is being installed around the world in both companies and academic sites on machines ranging from supercomputers to laptops.

  5. Grand Canonical Ensembles in General Relativity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klein, David; Yang, Wei-Shih

    2012-01-01

    We develop a formalism for general relativistic, grand canonical ensembles in space-times with timelike Killing fields. Using that, we derive ideal gas laws, and show how they depend on the geometry of the particular space-times. A systematic method for calculating Newtonian limits is given for a class of these space-times, which is illustrated for Kerr space-time. In addition, we prove uniqueness of the infinite volume Gibbs measure, and absence of phase transitions for a class of interaction potentials in anti-de Sitter space.

  6. Science design for two shafts in phase 1a of the proposed rock characterisation facility at Sellafield, UK

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ledingham, P.; Proughten, A.J.; Saulnier, G.J. Jr.

    1998-01-01

    In 1997, United Kingdom Nirex planned to begin construction of an underground Rock Characterisation Facility (RCF) at Sellafield as part of it's ongoing assessment of the suitability of the site as a host for a deep radioactive waste repository. The RCF was to have addressed issues relating to the geology, hydrogeology and geomechanical behaviour of the site by collecting data for testing predictive models and acquiring information only available from an underground situation. In March 1997, the UK Government refused permission for Nirex to begin construction and work at Sellafield was wound down. However, the science design for Phase 1a of the RCF, two vertical access shafts, was completed to provide a set of conceptual designs which address the issues identified by Nirex. By using Sellafield as an example, the designs contribute to a series of reports which demonstrate an approach to validation using an underground facility. This paper describes the Science Design for data collection during shaft construction, which began with the information requirements specified by Nirex on the basis of it's conceptual models and predictive work. It describes the scientific measurements designed to acquire this information and the process of combining the individual measurements into test plans for each shaft. Measurements were planned in the shafts themselves and in boreholes drilled from the shafts. They were designed to provide data on formation porosity and permeability, the geochemistry of formation water and the nature of the fresh-water salt-water interface, shaft inflow, the influence of geological structures on performance, and geomechanical responses to shaft excavation. A key element of the design process was the development of test plans, requiring the co-ordination and integration of the construction and science activities so that both could be carried out in a timely and cost-effective manner

  7. The canonical ensemble redefined - 1: Formalism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Venkataraman, R.

    1984-12-01

    For studying the thermodynamic properties of systems we propose an ensemble that lies in between the familiar canonical and microcanonical ensembles. We point out the transition from the canonical to microcanonical ensemble and prove from a comparative study that all these ensembles do not yield the same results even in the thermodynamic limit. An investigation of the coupling between two or more systems with these ensembles suggests that the state of thermodynamical equilibrium is a special case of statistical equilibrium. (author)

  8. Quantum ensembles of quantum classifiers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuld, Maria; Petruccione, Francesco

    2018-02-09

    Quantum machine learning witnesses an increasing amount of quantum algorithms for data-driven decision making, a problem with potential applications ranging from automated image recognition to medical diagnosis. Many of those algorithms are implementations of quantum classifiers, or models for the classification of data inputs with a quantum computer. Following the success of collective decision making with ensembles in classical machine learning, this paper introduces the concept of quantum ensembles of quantum classifiers. Creating the ensemble corresponds to a state preparation routine, after which the quantum classifiers are evaluated in parallel and their combined decision is accessed by a single-qubit measurement. This framework naturally allows for exponentially large ensembles in which - similar to Bayesian learning - the individual classifiers do not have to be trained. As an example, we analyse an exponentially large quantum ensemble in which each classifier is weighed according to its performance in classifying the training data, leading to new results for quantum as well as classical machine learning.

  9. The canonical ensemble redefined - 3. Ideal Bose gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Venkataraman, R.

    1984-12-01

    The ideal Bose gas solved in the redefined ensemble formalism exhibits a discontinuity in the specific heat suggesting that Bose-Einstein condensation is a second order phase transition. The deviations from the classical ideal gas behaviour are larger than those predicted by Gibbs ensemble. Below Tsub(c) the pressure is not independent of the volume. For a certain range of values of VT 3 , the peak in black body radiation shows a shift in the frequency scale and this could be detected, at least in principle, experimentally. (author)

  10. Ensemble forecasting of species distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araújo, Miguel B; New, Mark

    2007-01-01

    Concern over implications of climate change for biodiversity has led to the use of bioclimatic models to forecast the range shifts of species under future climate-change scenarios. Recent studies have demonstrated that projections by alternative models can be so variable as to compromise their usefulness for guiding policy decisions. Here, we advocate the use of multiple models within an ensemble forecasting framework and describe alternative approaches to the analysis of bioclimatic ensembles, including bounding box, consensus and probabilistic techniques. We argue that, although improved accuracy can be delivered through the traditional tasks of trying to build better models with improved data, more robust forecasts can also be achieved if ensemble forecasts are produced and analysed appropriately.

  11. Ensemble method for dengue prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buczak, Anna L; Baugher, Benjamin; Moniz, Linda J; Bagley, Thomas; Babin, Steven M; Guven, Erhan

    2018-01-01

    In the 2015 NOAA Dengue Challenge, participants made three dengue target predictions for two locations (Iquitos, Peru, and San Juan, Puerto Rico) during four dengue seasons: 1) peak height (i.e., maximum weekly number of cases during a transmission season; 2) peak week (i.e., week in which the maximum weekly number of cases occurred); and 3) total number of cases reported during a transmission season. A dengue transmission season is the 12-month period commencing with the location-specific, historical week with the lowest number of cases. At the beginning of the Dengue Challenge, participants were provided with the same input data for developing the models, with the prediction testing data provided at a later date. Our approach used ensemble models created by combining three disparate types of component models: 1) two-dimensional Method of Analogues models incorporating both dengue and climate data; 2) additive seasonal Holt-Winters models with and without wavelet smoothing; and 3) simple historical models. Of the individual component models created, those with the best performance on the prior four years of data were incorporated into the ensemble models. There were separate ensembles for predicting each of the three targets at each of the two locations. Our ensemble models scored higher for peak height and total dengue case counts reported in a transmission season for Iquitos than all other models submitted to the Dengue Challenge. However, the ensemble models did not do nearly as well when predicting the peak week. The Dengue Challenge organizers scored the dengue predictions of the Challenge participant groups. Our ensemble approach was the best in predicting the total number of dengue cases reported for transmission season and peak height for Iquitos, Peru.

  12. Ensemble method for dengue prediction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna L Buczak

    Full Text Available In the 2015 NOAA Dengue Challenge, participants made three dengue target predictions for two locations (Iquitos, Peru, and San Juan, Puerto Rico during four dengue seasons: 1 peak height (i.e., maximum weekly number of cases during a transmission season; 2 peak week (i.e., week in which the maximum weekly number of cases occurred; and 3 total number of cases reported during a transmission season. A dengue transmission season is the 12-month period commencing with the location-specific, historical week with the lowest number of cases. At the beginning of the Dengue Challenge, participants were provided with the same input data for developing the models, with the prediction testing data provided at a later date.Our approach used ensemble models created by combining three disparate types of component models: 1 two-dimensional Method of Analogues models incorporating both dengue and climate data; 2 additive seasonal Holt-Winters models with and without wavelet smoothing; and 3 simple historical models. Of the individual component models created, those with the best performance on the prior four years of data were incorporated into the ensemble models. There were separate ensembles for predicting each of the three targets at each of the two locations.Our ensemble models scored higher for peak height and total dengue case counts reported in a transmission season for Iquitos than all other models submitted to the Dengue Challenge. However, the ensemble models did not do nearly as well when predicting the peak week.The Dengue Challenge organizers scored the dengue predictions of the Challenge participant groups. Our ensemble approach was the best in predicting the total number of dengue cases reported for transmission season and peak height for Iquitos, Peru.

  13. Advanced Atmospheric Ensemble Modeling Techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buckley, R. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Chiswell, S. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Kurzeja, R. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Maze, G. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Viner, B. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Werth, D. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL)

    2017-09-29

    Ensemble modeling (EM), the creation of multiple atmospheric simulations for a given time period, has become an essential tool for characterizing uncertainties in model predictions. We explore two novel ensemble modeling techniques: (1) perturbation of model parameters (Adaptive Programming, AP), and (2) data assimilation (Ensemble Kalman Filter, EnKF). The current research is an extension to work from last year and examines transport on a small spatial scale (<100 km) in complex terrain, for more rigorous testing of the ensemble technique. Two different release cases were studied, a coastal release (SF6) and an inland release (Freon) which consisted of two release times. Observations of tracer concentration and meteorology are used to judge the ensemble results. In addition, adaptive grid techniques have been developed to reduce required computing resources for transport calculations. Using a 20- member ensemble, the standard approach generated downwind transport that was quantitatively good for both releases; however, the EnKF method produced additional improvement for the coastal release where the spatial and temporal differences due to interior valley heating lead to the inland movement of the plume. The AP technique showed improvements for both release cases, with more improvement shown in the inland release. This research demonstrated that transport accuracy can be improved when models are adapted to a particular location/time or when important local data is assimilated into the simulation and enhances SRNL’s capability in atmospheric transport modeling in support of its current customer base and local site missions, as well as our ability to attract new customers within the intelligence community.

  14. Statistical ensembles and molecular dynamics studies of anisotropic solids. II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ray, J.R.; Rahman, A.

    1985-01-01

    We have recently discussed how the Parrinello--Rahman theory can be brought into accord with the theory of the elastic and thermodynamic behavior of anisotropic media. This involves the isoenthalpic--isotension ensemble of statistical mechanics. Nose has developed a canonical ensemble form of molecular dynamics. We combine Nose's ideas with the Parrinello--Rahman theory to obtain a canonical form of molecular dynamics appropriate to the study of anisotropic media subjected to arbitrary external stress. We employ this isothermal--isotension ensemble in a study of a fcc→ close-packed structural phase transformation in a Lennard-Jones solid subjected to uniaxial compression. Our interpretation of the Nose theory does not involve a scaling of the time variable. This latter fact leads to simplifications when studying the time dependence of quantities

  15. Database for Regional Geology, Phase 1: A Tool for Informing Regional Evaluations of Alternative Geologic Media and Decision Making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perry, Frank Vinton [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Kelley, Richard E. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Birdsell, Suzanne M. [Clark Univ., Worcester, MA (United States); Lugo, Alexander Bryan [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Dobson, Patrick [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Houseworth, James [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2014-11-12

    Reported is progress in the following areas: Phase 1 and 2 websites for the regional geology GIS database; terrane maps of crystalline basement rocks; inventory of shale formations in the US; and rock properties and in-situ conditions for shale estimated from sonic velocity measurements.

  16. Teaching Strategies for Specialized Ensembles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teaching Music, 1999

    1999-01-01

    Provides a strategy, from the book "Strategies for Teaching Specialized Ensembles," that addresses Standard 9A of the National Standards for Music Education. Explains that students will identify and describe the musical and historical characteristics of the classical era in music they perform and in audio examples. (CMK)

  17. Multimodel ensembles of wheat growth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martre, Pierre; Wallach, Daniel; Asseng, Senthold

    2015-01-01

    , but such studies are difficult to organize and have only recently begun. We report on the largest ensemble study to date, of 27 wheat models tested in four contrasting locations for their accuracy in simulating multiple crop growth and yield variables. The relative error averaged over models was 24...

  18. Spectral Diagonal Ensemble Kalman Filters

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kasanický, Ivan; Mandel, Jan; Vejmelka, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 22, č. 4 (2015), s. 485-497 ISSN 1023-5809 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-34856S Grant - others:NSF(US) DMS-1216481 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : data assimilation * ensemble Kalman filter * spectral representation Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.321, year: 2015

  19. Genetic Algorithm Optimized Neural Networks Ensemble as ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Marquardt algorithm by varying conditions such as inputs, hidden neurons, initialization, training sets and random Gaussian noise injection to ... Several such ensembles formed the population which was evolved to generate the fittest ensemble.

  20. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) [1 Deg.

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) is a weather forecast model made up of 21 separate forecasts, or ensemble members. The National Centers for Environmental...

  1. Localization of atomic ensembles via superfluorescence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Macovei, Mihai; Evers, Joerg; Keitel, Christoph H.; Zubairy, M. Suhail

    2007-01-01

    The subwavelength localization of an ensemble of atoms concentrated to a small volume in space is investigated. The localization relies on the interaction of the ensemble with a standing wave laser field. The light scattered in the interaction of the standing wave field and the atom ensemble depends on the position of the ensemble relative to the standing wave nodes. This relation can be described by a fluorescence intensity profile, which depends on the standing wave field parameters and the ensemble properties and which is modified due to collective effects in the ensemble of nearby particles. We demonstrate that the intensity profile can be tailored to suit different localization setups. Finally, we apply these results to two localization schemes. First, we show how to localize an ensemble fixed at a certain position in the standing wave field. Second, we discuss localization of an ensemble passing through the standing wave field

  2. Reproductive phase dependent daily variation in melatonin receptors (Mel(1a) and Mel(1b)), androgen receptor (AR) and lung associated immunity of Perdicula asiatica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kharwar, R K; Haldar, C

    2011-06-01

    Our knowledge about the involvement of melatonin in the regulation of lung associated immune system (LAIS) is still poor though the melatonin receptor types (Mel(1a) and Mel(1b)) have been localized in lungs of some wild birds. We thought to explore the correlation between daily variation (within a 24h time scale) in peripheral melatonin and testosterone along with expression of melatonin receptors (Mel(1a) and Mel(1b)) and androgen receptor (AR) in lungs during reproductively active and inactive phases. Receptor expression of Mel(1b) was more prominent than Mel(1a) at all the time points during both the reproductive phases. The expression of AR was inversely related to both the melatonin and its receptor expression at the 24h time scale during both the reproductive phases. Results also reflected a parallel relationship of melatonin, melatonin receptors and all the immune parameters (total leukocyte count, lymphocyte count, % stimulation ratio) suggesting that peripheral melatonin might be responsible for daily periodicity of LAIS. The presence of androgen receptors in lung led us to propose that gonadal steroid does influence the LAIS. Therefore melatonin along with testosterone might be acting as a temporal synchronizer for daily rhythms in lung associated immunity in Perdicula asiatica during different reproductive phases. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. A short-range ensemble prediction system for southern Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Park, R

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available system for southern Africa R PARK, WA LANDMAN AND F ENGELBRECHT CSIR, PO Box 395, Pretoria, South Africa, 0001 Email: xxxxxxxxxxxxxx@csir.co.za ? www.csir.co.za INTRODUCTION This research has been conducted in order to develop a short-range ensemble... stream_source_info Park_2012.pdf.txt stream_content_type text/plain stream_size 7211 Content-Encoding ISO-8859-1 stream_name Park_2012.pdf.txt Content-Type text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1 A short-range ensemble prediction...

  4. Squeezing of Collective Excitations in Spin Ensembles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kraglund Andersen, Christian; Mølmer, Klaus

    2012-01-01

    We analyse the possibility to create two-mode spin squeezed states of two separate spin ensembles by inverting the spins in one ensemble and allowing spin exchange between the ensembles via a near resonant cavity field. We investigate the dynamics of the system using a combination of numerical an...

  5. Dynamics of heterogeneous oscillator ensembles in terms of collective variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pikovsky, Arkady; Rosenblum, Michael

    2011-04-01

    We consider general heterogeneous ensembles of phase oscillators, sine coupled to arbitrary external fields. Starting with the infinitely large ensembles, we extend the Watanabe-Strogatz theory, valid for identical oscillators, to cover the case of an arbitrary parameter distribution. The obtained equations yield the description of the ensemble dynamics in terms of collective variables and constants of motion. As a particular case of the general setup we consider hierarchically organized ensembles, consisting of a finite number of subpopulations, whereas the number of elements in a subpopulation can be both finite or infinite. Next, we link the Watanabe-Strogatz and Ott-Antonsen theories and demonstrate that the latter one corresponds to a particular choice of constants of motion. The approach is applied to the standard Kuramoto-Sakaguchi model, to its extension for the case of nonlinear coupling, and to the description of two interacting subpopulations, exhibiting a chimera state. With these examples we illustrate that, although the asymptotic dynamics can be found within the framework of the Ott-Antonsen theory, the transients depend on the constants of motion. The most dramatic effect is the dependence of the basins of attraction of different synchronous regimes on the initial configuration of phases.

  6. Microcanonical ensemble and algebra of conserved generators for generalized quantum dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adler, S.L.; Horwitz, L.P.

    1996-01-01

    It has recently been shown, by application of statistical mechanical methods to determine the canonical ensemble governing the equilibrium distribution of operator initial values, that complex quantum field theory can emerge as a statistical approximation to an underlying generalized quantum dynamics. This result was obtained by an argument based on a Ward identity analogous to the equipartition theorem of classical statistical mechanics. We construct here a microcanonical ensemble which forms the basis of this canonical ensemble. This construction enables us to define the microcanonical entropy and free energy of the field configuration of the equilibrium distribution and to study the stability of the canonical ensemble. We also study the algebraic structure of the conserved generators from which the microcanonical and canonical ensembles are constructed, and the flows they induce on the phase space. copyright 1996 American Institute of Physics

  7. Equipartition terms in transition path ensemble: Insights from molecular dynamics simulations of alanine dipeptide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Wenjin

    2018-02-01

    Transition path ensemble consists of reactive trajectories and possesses all the information necessary for the understanding of the mechanism and dynamics of important condensed phase processes. However, quantitative description of the properties of the transition path ensemble is far from being established. Here, with numerical calculations on a model system, the equipartition terms defined in thermal equilibrium were for the first time estimated in the transition path ensemble. It was not surprising to observe that the energy was not equally distributed among all the coordinates. However, the energies distributed on a pair of conjugated coordinates remained equal. Higher energies were observed to be distributed on several coordinates, which are highly coupled to the reaction coordinate, while the rest were almost equally distributed. In addition, the ensemble-averaged energy on each coordinate as a function of time was also quantified. These quantitative analyses on energy distributions provided new insights into the transition path ensemble.

  8. Dynamical Engineering of Interactions in Qudit Ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Soonwon; Yao, Norman Y.; Lukin, Mikhail D.

    2017-11-01

    We propose and analyze a method to engineer effective interactions in an ensemble of d -level systems (qudits) driven by global control fields. In particular, we present (i) a necessary and sufficient condition under which a given interaction can be decoupled, (ii) the existence of a universal sequence that decouples any (cancelable) interaction, and (iii) an efficient algorithm to engineer a target Hamiltonian from an initial Hamiltonian (if possible). We illustrate the potential of this method with two examples. Specifically, we present a 6-pulse sequence that decouples effective spin-1 dipolar interactions and demonstrate that a spin-1 Ising chain can be engineered to study transitions among three distinct symmetry protected topological phases. Our work enables new approaches for the realization of both many-body quantum memories and programmable analog quantum simulators using existing experimental platforms.

  9. Non-Boltzmann Ensembles and Monte Carlo Simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murthy, K. P. N.

    2016-01-01

    Boltzmann sampling based on Metropolis algorithm has been extensively used for simulating a canonical ensemble and for calculating macroscopic properties of a closed system at desired temperatures. An estimate of a mechanical property, like energy, of an equilibrium system, is made by averaging over a large number microstates generated by Boltzmann Monte Carlo methods. This is possible because we can assign a numerical value for energy to each microstate. However, a thermal property like entropy, is not easily accessible to these methods. The reason is simple. We can not assign a numerical value for entropy, to a microstate. Entropy is not a property associated with any single microstate. It is a collective property of all the microstates. Toward calculating entropy and other thermal properties, a non-Boltzmann Monte Carlo technique called Umbrella sampling was proposed some forty years ago. Umbrella sampling has since undergone several metamorphoses and we have now, multi-canonical Monte Carlo, entropic sampling, flat histogram methods, Wang-Landau algorithm etc . This class of methods generates non-Boltzmann ensembles which are un-physical. However, physical quantities can be calculated as follows. First un-weight a microstates of the entropic ensemble; then re-weight it to the desired physical ensemble. Carry out weighted average over the entropic ensemble to estimate physical quantities. In this talk I shall tell you of the most recent non- Boltzmann Monte Carlo method and show how to calculate free energy for a few systems. We first consider estimation of free energy as a function of energy at different temperatures to characterize phase transition in an hairpin DNA in the presence of an unzipping force. Next we consider free energy as a function of order parameter and to this end we estimate density of states g ( E , M ), as a function of both energy E , and order parameter M . This is carried out in two stages. We estimate g ( E ) in the first stage

  10. Nonequilibrium statistical mechanics ensemble method

    CERN Document Server

    Eu, Byung Chan

    1998-01-01

    In this monograph, nonequilibrium statistical mechanics is developed by means of ensemble methods on the basis of the Boltzmann equation, the generic Boltzmann equations for classical and quantum dilute gases, and a generalised Boltzmann equation for dense simple fluids The theories are developed in forms parallel with the equilibrium Gibbs ensemble theory in a way fully consistent with the laws of thermodynamics The generalised hydrodynamics equations are the integral part of the theory and describe the evolution of macroscopic processes in accordance with the laws of thermodynamics of systems far removed from equilibrium Audience This book will be of interest to researchers in the fields of statistical mechanics, condensed matter physics, gas dynamics, fluid dynamics, rheology, irreversible thermodynamics and nonequilibrium phenomena

  11. Statistical Analysis of Protein Ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Máté, Gabriell; Heermann, Dieter

    2014-04-01

    As 3D protein-configuration data is piling up, there is an ever-increasing need for well-defined, mathematically rigorous analysis approaches, especially that the vast majority of the currently available methods rely heavily on heuristics. We propose an analysis framework which stems from topology, the field of mathematics which studies properties preserved under continuous deformations. First, we calculate a barcode representation of the molecules employing computational topology algorithms. Bars in this barcode represent different topological features. Molecules are compared through their barcodes by statistically determining the difference in the set of their topological features. As a proof-of-principle application, we analyze a dataset compiled of ensembles of different proteins, obtained from the Ensemble Protein Database. We demonstrate that our approach correctly detects the different protein groupings.

  12. Ensemble methods for handwritten digit recognition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Lars Kai; Liisberg, Christian; Salamon, P.

    1992-01-01

    Neural network ensembles are applied to handwritten digit recognition. The individual networks of the ensemble are combinations of sparse look-up tables (LUTs) with random receptive fields. It is shown that the consensus of a group of networks outperforms the best individual of the ensemble....... It is further shown that it is possible to estimate the ensemble performance as well as the learning curve on a medium-size database. In addition the authors present preliminary analysis of experiments on a large database and show that state-of-the-art performance can be obtained using the ensemble approach...... by optimizing the receptive fields. It is concluded that it is possible to improve performance significantly by introducing moderate-size ensembles; in particular, a 20-25% improvement has been found. The ensemble random LUTs, when trained on a medium-size database, reach a performance (without rejects) of 94...

  13. Benchmarking Commercial Conformer Ensemble Generators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedrich, Nils-Ole; de Bruyn Kops, Christina; Flachsenberg, Florian; Sommer, Kai; Rarey, Matthias; Kirchmair, Johannes

    2017-11-27

    We assess and compare the performance of eight commercial conformer ensemble generators (ConfGen, ConfGenX, cxcalc, iCon, MOE LowModeMD, MOE Stochastic, MOE Conformation Import, and OMEGA) and one leading free algorithm, the distance geometry algorithm implemented in RDKit. The comparative study is based on a new version of the Platinum Diverse Dataset, a high-quality benchmarking dataset of 2859 protein-bound ligand conformations extracted from the PDB. Differences in the performance of commercial algorithms are much smaller than those observed for free algorithms in our previous study (J. Chem. Inf. 2017, 57, 529-539). For commercial algorithms, the median minimum root-mean-square deviations measured between protein-bound ligand conformations and ensembles of a maximum of 250 conformers are between 0.46 and 0.61 Å. Commercial conformer ensemble generators are characterized by their high robustness, with at least 99% of all input molecules successfully processed and few or even no substantial geometrical errors detectable in their output conformations. The RDKit distance geometry algorithm (with minimization enabled) appears to be a good free alternative since its performance is comparable to that of the midranked commercial algorithms. Based on a statistical analysis, we elaborate on which algorithms to use and how to parametrize them for best performance in different application scenarios.

  14. Dynamics of multi-frequency oscillator ensembles with resonant coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lück, S.; Pikovsky, A.

    2011-07-01

    We study dynamics of populations of resonantly coupled oscillators having different frequencies. Starting from the coupled van der Pol equations we derive the Kuramoto-type phase model for the situation, where the natural frequencies of two interacting subpopulations are in relation 2:1. Depending on the parameter of coupling, ensembles can demonstrate fully synchronous clusters, partial synchrony (only one subpopulation synchronizes), or asynchrony in both subpopulations. Theoretical description of the dynamics based on the Watanabe-Strogatz approach is developed.

  15. A brief history of the introduction of generalized ensembles to Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Bernd A.

    2017-03-01

    The most efficient weights for Markov chain Monte Carlo calculations of physical observables are not necessarily those of the canonical ensemble. Generalized ensembles, which do not exist in nature but can be simulated on computers, lead often to a much faster convergence. In particular, they have been used for simulations of first order phase transitions and for simulations of complex systems in which conflicting constraints lead to a rugged free energy landscape. Starting off with the Metropolis algorithm and Hastings' extension, I present a minireview which focuses on the explosive use of generalized ensembles in the early 1990s. Illustrations are given, which range from spin models to peptides.

  16. A target recognition method for maritime surveillance radars based on hybrid ensemble selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Xueman; Hu, Shengliang; He, Jingbo

    2017-11-01

    In order to improve the generalisation ability of the maritime surveillance radar, a novel ensemble selection technique, termed Optimisation and Dynamic Selection (ODS), is proposed. During the optimisation phase, the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II for multi-objective optimisation is used to find the Pareto front, i.e. a set of ensembles of classifiers representing different tradeoffs between the classification error and diversity. During the dynamic selection phase, the meta-learning method is used to predict whether a candidate ensemble is competent enough to classify a query instance based on three different aspects, namely, feature space, decision space and the extent of consensus. The classification performance and time complexity of ODS are compared against nine other ensemble methods using a self-built full polarimetric high resolution range profile data-set. The experimental results clearly show the effectiveness of ODS. In addition, the influence of the selection of diversity measures is studied concurrently.

  17. Operational readiness verification, phase 1: A study on safety during outage and restart of nuclear power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hollnagel, E. [Linkoeping Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Computer and Information Science; Gauthereau, V. [Linkoeping Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Industrial Engineering

    2001-06-01

    This report contains the findings from the first phase of a study on safety during outage and restart of nuclear power plants. Operational Readiness Verification (ORV) - in Swedish called Driftklarhetsverifiering (DKV) - refers to the test and verification activities that are necessary to ensure that plant systems are able to provide their required functions when needed - more concretely that all plant systems are in their correct functional state when the plant is restarted after an outage period. The concrete background for this work is that nine ORV related incidents were reported in Sweden between July 1995 and October 1998. The work reported here comprised a literature survey of research relevant for ORV issues, and an assessment of the present situation at Swedish NPPs with respect to ORV. The literature survey was primarily aimed at research related to NPPs, but also looked at domains where similar problems have occurred, such as maintenance in commercial aviation. The survey looked specifically for organisational and MTO aspects relevant to the present situation in Swedish NPPs. One finding was that ORV should be seen as an integral part of maintenance, rather than as a separate activity. Another, that there is a characteristic distribution of error modes for maintenance and ORV, with many sequence errors and omissions, rather than a set of unique error modes. An international study further showed that there are important differences in how procedures are used, and in the balance between decentralisation and centralisation. Several studies also suggested that ORV could usefully be described as a barrier system in relation to the flow of work, for instance using the following five stages: (1) preventive actions during maintenance/outage, (2) post-test after completion of work, (3) pre-test before start-up, (4) the start-up sequence itself, and (5) preventive actions during power operation - possibly including automatic safety systems. In the field survey

  18. Operational readiness verification, phase 1: A study on safety during outage and restart of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hollnagel, E.; Gauthereau, V.

    2001-06-01

    This report contains the findings from the first phase of a study on safety during outage and restart of nuclear power plants. Operational Readiness Verification (ORV) - in Swedish called Driftklarhetsverifiering (DKV) - refers to the test and verification activities that are necessary to ensure that plant systems are able to provide their required functions when needed - more concretely that all plant systems are in their correct functional state when the plant is restarted after an outage period. The concrete background for this work is that nine ORV related incidents were reported in Sweden between July 1995 and October 1998. The work reported here comprised a literature survey of research relevant for ORV issues, and an assessment of the present situation at Swedish NPPs with respect to ORV. The literature survey was primarily aimed at research related to NPPs, but also looked at domains where similar problems have occurred, such as maintenance in commercial aviation. The survey looked specifically for organisational and MTO aspects relevant to the present situation in Swedish NPPs. One finding was that ORV should be seen as an integral part of maintenance, rather than as a separate activity. Another, that there is a characteristic distribution of error modes for maintenance and ORV, with many sequence errors and omissions, rather than a set of unique error modes. An international study further showed that there are important differences in how procedures are used, and in the balance between decentralisation and centralisation. Several studies also suggested that ORV could usefully be described as a barrier system in relation to the flow of work, for instance using the following five stages: (1) preventive actions during maintenance/outage, (2) post-test after completion of work, (3) pre-test before start-up, (4) the start-up sequence itself, and (5) preventive actions during power operation - possibly including automatic safety systems. In the field survey

  19. Operational readiness verification, phase 1: A study on safety during outage and restart of nuclear power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hollnagel, E [Linkoeping Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Computer and Information Science; Gauthereau, V [Linkoeping Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Industrial Engineering

    2001-06-01

    This report contains the findings from the first phase of a study on safety during outage and restart of nuclear power plants. Operational Readiness Verification (ORV) - in Swedish called Driftklarhetsverifiering (DKV) - refers to the test and verification activities that are necessary to ensure that plant systems are able to provide their required functions when needed - more concretely that all plant systems are in their correct functional state when the plant is restarted after an outage period. The concrete background for this work is that nine ORV related incidents were reported in Sweden between July 1995 and October 1998. The work reported here comprised a literature survey of research relevant for ORV issues, and an assessment of the present situation at Swedish NPPs with respect to ORV. The literature survey was primarily aimed at research related to NPPs, but also looked at domains where similar problems have occurred, such as maintenance in commercial aviation. The survey looked specifically for organisational and MTO aspects relevant to the present situation in Swedish NPPs. One finding was that ORV should be seen as an integral part of maintenance, rather than as a separate activity. Another, that there is a characteristic distribution of error modes for maintenance and ORV, with many sequence errors and omissions, rather than a set of unique error modes. An international study further showed that there are important differences in how procedures are used, and in the balance between decentralisation and centralisation. Several studies also suggested that ORV could usefully be described as a barrier system in relation to the flow of work, for instance using the following five stages: (1) preventive actions during maintenance/outage, (2) post-test after completion of work, (3) pre-test before start-up, (4) the start-up sequence itself, and (5) preventive actions during power operation - possibly including automatic safety systems. In the field survey

  20. A method to encapsulate model structural uncertainty in ensemble projections of future climate: EPIC v1.0

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Jared; Bodeker, Greg E.; Kremser, Stefanie; Tait, Andrew

    2017-12-01

    A method, based on climate pattern scaling, has been developed to expand a small number of projections of fields of a selected climate variable (X) into an ensemble that encapsulates a wide range of indicative model structural uncertainties. The method described in this paper is referred to as the Ensemble Projections Incorporating Climate model uncertainty (EPIC) method. Each ensemble member is constructed by adding contributions from (1) a climatology derived from observations that represents the time-invariant part of the signal; (2) a contribution from forced changes in X, where those changes can be statistically related to changes in global mean surface temperature (Tglobal); and (3) a contribution from unforced variability that is generated by a stochastic weather generator. The patterns of unforced variability are also allowed to respond to changes in Tglobal. The statistical relationships between changes in X (and its patterns of variability) and Tglobal are obtained in a training phase. Then, in an implementation phase, 190 simulations of Tglobal are generated using a simple climate model tuned to emulate 19 different global climate models (GCMs) and 10 different carbon cycle models. Using the generated Tglobal time series and the correlation between the forced changes in X and Tglobal, obtained in the training phase, the forced change in the X field can be generated many times using Monte Carlo analysis. A stochastic weather generator is used to generate realistic representations of weather which include spatial coherence. Because GCMs and regional climate models (RCMs) are less likely to correctly represent unforced variability compared to observations, the stochastic weather generator takes as input measures of variability derived from observations, but also responds to forced changes in climate in a way that is consistent with the RCM projections. This approach to generating a large ensemble of projections is many orders of magnitude more

  1. Measuring social interaction in music ensembles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volpe, Gualtiero; D'Ausilio, Alessandro; Badino, Leonardo; Camurri, Antonio; Fadiga, Luciano

    2016-05-05

    Music ensembles are an ideal test-bed for quantitative analysis of social interaction. Music is an inherently social activity, and music ensembles offer a broad variety of scenarios which are particularly suitable for investigation. Small ensembles, such as string quartets, are deemed a significant example of self-managed teams, where all musicians contribute equally to a task. In bigger ensembles, such as orchestras, the relationship between a leader (the conductor) and a group of followers (the musicians) clearly emerges. This paper presents an overview of recent research on social interaction in music ensembles with a particular focus on (i) studies from cognitive neuroscience; and (ii) studies adopting a computational approach for carrying out automatic quantitative analysis of ensemble music performances. © 2016 The Author(s).

  2. Statistical ensembles in quantum mechanics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blokhintsev, D.

    1976-01-01

    The interpretation of quantum mechanics presented in this paper is based on the concept of quantum ensembles. This concept differs essentially from the canonical one by that the interference of the observer into the state of a microscopic system is of no greater importance than in any other field of physics. Owing to this fact, the laws established by quantum mechanics are not of less objective character than the laws governing classical statistical mechanics. The paradoxical nature of some statements of quantum mechanics which result from the interpretation of the wave functions as the observer's notebook greatly stimulated the development of the idea presented. (Auth.)

  3. Wind Power Prediction using Ensembles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Giebel, Gregor; Badger, Jake; Landberg, Lars

    2005-01-01

    offshore wind farm and the whole Jutland/Funen area. The utilities used these forecasts for maintenance planning, fuel consumption estimates and over-the-weekend trading on the Leipzig power exchange. Othernotable scientific results include the better accuracy of forecasts made up from a simple...... superposition of two NWP provider (in our case, DMI and DWD), an investigation of the merits of a parameterisation of the turbulent kinetic energy within thedelivered wind speed forecasts, and the finding that a “naïve” downscaling of each of the coarse ECMWF ensemble members with higher resolution HIRLAM did...

  4. EnsembleGASVR: A novel ensemble method for classifying missense single nucleotide polymorphisms

    KAUST Repository

    Rapakoulia, Trisevgeni; Theofilatos, Konstantinos A.; Kleftogiannis, Dimitrios A.; Likothanasis, Spiridon D.; Tsakalidis, Athanasios K.; Mavroudi, Seferina P.

    2014-01-01

    do not support their predictions with confidence scores. Results: To overcome these limitations, a novel ensemble computational methodology is proposed. EnsembleGASVR facilitates a twostep algorithm, which in its first step applies a novel

  5. Multi-Model Ensemble Wake Vortex Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koerner, Stephan; Holzaepfel, Frank; Ahmad, Nash'at N.

    2015-01-01

    Several multi-model ensemble methods are investigated for predicting wake vortex transport and decay. This study is a joint effort between National Aeronautics and Space Administration and Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt to develop a multi-model ensemble capability using their wake models. An overview of different multi-model ensemble methods and their feasibility for wake applications is presented. The methods include Reliability Ensemble Averaging, Bayesian Model Averaging, and Monte Carlo Simulations. The methodologies are evaluated using data from wake vortex field experiments.

  6. Urban runoff forecasting with ensemble weather predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Jonas Wied; Courdent, Vianney Augustin Thomas; Vezzaro, Luca

    This research shows how ensemble weather forecasts can be used to generate urban runoff forecasts up to 53 hours into the future. The results highlight systematic differences between ensemble members that needs to be accounted for when these forecasts are used in practice.......This research shows how ensemble weather forecasts can be used to generate urban runoff forecasts up to 53 hours into the future. The results highlight systematic differences between ensemble members that needs to be accounted for when these forecasts are used in practice....

  7. Joys of Community Ensemble Playing: The Case of the Happy Roll Elastic Ensemble in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsieh, Yuan-Mei; Kao, Kai-Chi

    2012-01-01

    The Happy Roll Elastic Ensemble (HREE) is a community music ensemble supported by Tainan Culture Centre in Taiwan. With enjoyment and friendship as its primary goals, it aims to facilitate the joys of ensemble playing and the spirit of social networking. This article highlights the key aspects of HREE's development in its first two years…

  8. Atom lasers, coherent states, and coherence II. Maximally robust ensembles of pure states

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wiseman, H.M.; Vaccaro, John A.

    2002-01-01

    As discussed in the preceding paper [Wiseman and Vaccaro, preceding paper, Phys. Rev. A 65, 043605 (2002)], the stationary state of an optical or atom laser far above threshold is a mixture of coherent field states with random phase, or, equivalently, a Poissonian mixture of number states. We are interested in which, if either, of these descriptions of ρ ss as a stationary ensemble of pure states, is more natural. In the preceding paper we concentrated upon the question of whether descriptions such as these are physically realizable (PR). In this paper we investigate another relevant aspect of these ensembles, their robustness. A robust ensemble is one for which the pure states that comprise it survive relatively unchanged for a long time under the system evolution. We determine numerically the most robust ensembles as a function of the parameters in the laser model: the self-energy χ of the bosons in the laser mode, and the excess phase noise ν. We find that these most robust ensembles are PR ensembles, or similar to PR ensembles, for all values of these parameters. In the ideal laser limit (ν=χ=0), the most robust states are coherent states. As the phase noise or phase dispersion is increased through ν or the self-interaction of the bosons χ, respectively, the most robust states become more and more amplitude squeezed. We find scaling laws for these states, and give analytical derivations for them. As the phase diffusion or dispersion becomes so large that the laser output is no longer quantum coherent, the most robust states become so squeezed that they cease to have a well-defined coherent amplitude. That is, the quantum coherence of the laser output is manifest in the most robust PR ensemble being an ensemble of states with a well-defined coherent amplitude. This lends support to our approach of regarding robust PR ensembles as the most natural description of the state of the laser mode. It also has interesting implications for atom lasers in particular

  9. Data Pre-Analysis and Ensemble of Various Artificial Neural Networks for Monthly Streamflow Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianzhong Zhou

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces three artificial neural network (ANN architectures for monthly streamflow forecasting: a radial basis function network, an extreme learning machine, and the Elman network. Three ensemble techniques, a simple average ensemble, a weighted average ensemble, and an ANN-based ensemble, were used to combine the outputs of the individual ANN models. The objective was to highlight the performance of the general regression neural network-based ensemble technique (GNE through an improvement of monthly streamflow forecasting accuracy. Before the construction of an ANN model, data preanalysis techniques, such as empirical wavelet transform (EWT, were exploited to eliminate the oscillations of the streamflow series. Additionally, a theory of chaos phase space reconstruction was used to select the most relevant and important input variables for forecasting. The proposed GNE ensemble model has been applied for the mean monthly streamflow observation data from the Wudongde hydrological station in the Jinsha River Basin, China. Comparisons and analysis of this study have demonstrated that the denoised streamflow time series was less disordered and unsystematic than was suggested by the original time series according to chaos theory. Thus, EWT can be adopted as an effective data preanalysis technique for the prediction of monthly streamflow. Concurrently, the GNE performed better when compared with other ensemble techniques.

  10. Popular Music and the Instrumental Ensemble.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boespflug, George

    1999-01-01

    Discusses popular music, the role of the musical performer as a creator, and the styles of jazz and popular music. Describes the pop ensemble at the college level, focusing on improvisation, rehearsals, recording, and performance. Argues that pop ensembles be used in junior and senior high school. (CMK)

  11. Layered Ensemble Architecture for Time Series Forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Md Mustafizur; Islam, Md Monirul; Murase, Kazuyuki; Yao, Xin

    2016-01-01

    Time series forecasting (TSF) has been widely used in many application areas such as science, engineering, and finance. The phenomena generating time series are usually unknown and information available for forecasting is only limited to the past values of the series. It is, therefore, necessary to use an appropriate number of past values, termed lag, for forecasting. This paper proposes a layered ensemble architecture (LEA) for TSF problems. Our LEA consists of two layers, each of which uses an ensemble of multilayer perceptron (MLP) networks. While the first ensemble layer tries to find an appropriate lag, the second ensemble layer employs the obtained lag for forecasting. Unlike most previous work on TSF, the proposed architecture considers both accuracy and diversity of the individual networks in constructing an ensemble. LEA trains different networks in the ensemble by using different training sets with an aim of maintaining diversity among the networks. However, it uses the appropriate lag and combines the best trained networks to construct the ensemble. This indicates LEAs emphasis on accuracy of the networks. The proposed architecture has been tested extensively on time series data of neural network (NN)3 and NN5 competitions. It has also been tested on several standard benchmark time series data. In terms of forecasting accuracy, our experimental results have revealed clearly that LEA is better than other ensemble and nonensemble methods.

  12. Ensemble methods for seasonal limited area forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arritt, Raymond W.; Anderson, Christopher J.; Takle, Eugene S.

    2004-01-01

    The ensemble prediction methods used for seasonal limited area forecasts were examined by comparing methods for generating ensemble simulations of seasonal precipitation. The summer 1993 model over the north-central US was used as a test case. The four methods examined included the lagged-average...

  13. Topological quantization of ensemble averages

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prodan, Emil

    2009-01-01

    We define the current of a quantum observable and, under well-defined conditions, we connect its ensemble average to the index of a Fredholm operator. The present work builds on a formalism developed by Kellendonk and Schulz-Baldes (2004 J. Funct. Anal. 209 388) to study the quantization of edge currents for continuous magnetic Schroedinger operators. The generalization given here may be a useful tool to scientists looking for novel manifestations of the topological quantization. As a new application, we show that the differential conductance of atomic wires is given by the index of a certain operator. We also comment on how the formalism can be used to probe the existence of edge states

  14. Characterizing Ensembles of Superconducting Qubits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sears, Adam; Birenbaum, Jeff; Hover, David; Rosenberg, Danna; Weber, Steven; Yoder, Jonilyn L.; Kerman, Jamie; Gustavsson, Simon; Kamal, Archana; Yan, Fei; Oliver, William

    We investigate ensembles of up to 48 superconducting qubits embedded within a superconducting cavity. Such arrays of qubits have been proposed for the experimental study of Ising Hamiltonians, and efficient methods to characterize and calibrate these types of systems are still under development. Here we leverage high qubit coherence (> 70 μs) to characterize individual devices as well as qubit-qubit interactions, utilizing the common resonator mode for a joint readout. This research was funded by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) under Air Force Contract No. FA8721-05-C-0002. The views and conclusions contained herein are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies or endorsements, either expressed or implied, of ODNI, IARPA, or the US Government.

  15. Muscle activation described with a differential equation model for large ensembles of locally coupled molecular motors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walcott, Sam

    2014-10-01

    Molecular motors, by turning chemical energy into mechanical work, are responsible for active cellular processes. Often groups of these motors work together to perform their biological role. Motors in an ensemble are coupled and exhibit complex emergent behavior. Although large motor ensembles can be modeled with partial differential equations (PDEs) by assuming that molecules function independently of their neighbors, this assumption is violated when motors are coupled locally. It is therefore unclear how to describe the ensemble behavior of the locally coupled motors responsible for biological processes such as calcium-dependent skeletal muscle activation. Here we develop a theory to describe locally coupled motor ensembles and apply the theory to skeletal muscle activation. The central idea is that a muscle filament can be divided into two phases: an active and an inactive phase. Dynamic changes in the relative size of these phases are described by a set of linear ordinary differential equations (ODEs). As the dynamics of the active phase are described by PDEs, muscle activation is governed by a set of coupled ODEs and PDEs, building on previous PDE models. With comparison to Monte Carlo simulations, we demonstrate that the theory captures the behavior of locally coupled ensembles. The theory also plausibly describes and predicts muscle experiments from molecular to whole muscle scales, suggesting that a micro- to macroscale muscle model is within reach.

  16. COMMIX-1A: a three-dimensional transient single-phase computer program for thermal hydraulic analysis of single and multicomponent systems. Volume I: users manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Domanus, H.M.; Schmitt, R.C.; Sha, W.T.; Shah, V.L.

    1983-12-01

    The COMMIX-1A computer program is an updated and improved version of COMMIX-1 designed to analyze steady-state/transient, single-phase, three-dimensional fluid flow with heat transfer in reactor components and multicomponent systems. A new porous-media formulation via local volume averaging has been derived and employed in the COMMIX code. The concepts of volume porosity, directional surface permeability, distributed resistance, and distributed heat source or sink is used in the new porous-media formulation to model a flow domain with stationary structures. The concept of directional surface permeability is new and greatly facilitates modeling of velocity and temperature fields in anisotropic media. The new porous-media formulation represents the first unified approach to thermal-hydraulic analysis. It is now possible to perform a multidimensional thermal-hydraulic simulation of either a single component, such as a rod bundle, reactor plenum, piping system, heat exchanger, etc., or a multicomponent system that is a combination of these components. The conservation equations of mass, momentum, and energy based on the new porous-media formulation are solved as a boundary-value problem in space and an initial-value problem in time. Two other unique features provided in the COMMIX-1A code are (1) two solution procedures - a semi-implicit procedure modified from ICE and a fully-implicit procedure, named SIMPLEST-ANL, similar to the SIMPLE/SIMPLER algorithms - available a user's option and (2) a geometrical package capable of approximating many geometries. This report (Volume I) describes in detail the basic equations, formulations, solution procedures, flow charts, rebalancing scheme for faster convergence, options available to users, models to describe the auxiliary phenomena, input instructions, and two sample problems. The Volume II assembles and summarizes the results of many simulations that have been performed with COMMIX-1A computer program

  17. Tridiagonal realization of the antisymmetric Gaussian β-ensemble

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dumitriu, Ioana; Forrester, Peter J.

    2010-01-01

    The Householder reduction of a member of the antisymmetric Gaussian unitary ensemble gives an antisymmetric tridiagonal matrix with all independent elements. The random variables permit the introduction of a positive parameter β, and the eigenvalue probability density function of the corresponding random matrices can be computed explicitly, as can the distribution of (q i ), the first components of the eigenvectors. Three proofs are given. One involves an inductive construction based on bordering of a family of random matrices which are shown to have the same distributions as the antisymmetric tridiagonal matrices. This proof uses the Dixon-Anderson integral from Selberg integral theory. A second proof involves the explicit computation of the Jacobian for the change of variables between real antisymmetric tridiagonal matrices, its eigenvalues, and (q i ). The third proof maps matrices from the antisymmetric Gaussian β-ensemble to those realizing particular examples of the Laguerre β-ensemble. In addition to these proofs, we note some simple properties of the shooting eigenvector and associated Pruefer phases of the random matrices.

  18. Girsanov reweighting for path ensembles and Markov state models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donati, L.; Hartmann, C.; Keller, B. G.

    2017-06-01

    The sensitivity of molecular dynamics on changes in the potential energy function plays an important role in understanding the dynamics and function of complex molecules. We present a method to obtain path ensemble averages of a perturbed dynamics from a set of paths generated by a reference dynamics. It is based on the concept of path probability measure and the Girsanov theorem, a result from stochastic analysis to estimate a change of measure of a path ensemble. Since Markov state models (MSMs) of the molecular dynamics can be formulated as a combined phase-space and path ensemble average, the method can be extended to reweight MSMs by combining it with a reweighting of the Boltzmann distribution. We demonstrate how to efficiently implement the Girsanov reweighting in a molecular dynamics simulation program by calculating parts of the reweighting factor "on the fly" during the simulation, and we benchmark the method on test systems ranging from a two-dimensional diffusion process and an artificial many-body system to alanine dipeptide and valine dipeptide in implicit and explicit water. The method can be used to study the sensitivity of molecular dynamics on external perturbations as well as to reweight trajectories generated by enhanced sampling schemes to the original dynamics.

  19. Creating ensembles of decision trees through sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamath, Chandrika; Cantu-Paz, Erick

    2005-08-30

    A system for decision tree ensembles that includes a module to read the data, a module to sort the data, a module to evaluate a potential split of the data according to some criterion using a random sample of the data, a module to split the data, and a module to combine multiple decision trees in ensembles. The decision tree method is based on statistical sampling techniques and includes the steps of reading the data; sorting the data; evaluating a potential split according to some criterion using a random sample of the data, splitting the data, and combining multiple decision trees in ensembles.

  20. Derivation of Mayer Series from Canonical Ensemble

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Xian-Zhi

    2016-01-01

    Mayer derived the Mayer series from both the canonical ensemble and the grand canonical ensemble by use of the cluster expansion method. In 2002, we conjectured a recursion formula of the canonical partition function of a fluid (X.Z. Wang, Phys. Rev. E 66 (2002) 056102). In this paper we give a proof for this formula by developing an appropriate expansion of the integrand of the canonical partition function. We further derive the Mayer series solely from the canonical ensemble by use of this recursion formula. (paper)

  1. Derivation of Mayer Series from Canonical Ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xian-Zhi

    2016-02-01

    Mayer derived the Mayer series from both the canonical ensemble and the grand canonical ensemble by use of the cluster expansion method. In 2002, we conjectured a recursion formula of the canonical partition function of a fluid (X.Z. Wang, Phys. Rev. E 66 (2002) 056102). In this paper we give a proof for this formula by developing an appropriate expansion of the integrand of the canonical partition function. We further derive the Mayer series solely from the canonical ensemble by use of this recursion formula.

  2. A variational ensemble scheme for noisy image data assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yin; Robinson, Cordelia; Heitz, Dominique; Mémin, Etienne

    2014-05-01

    -dependent background error covariance matrix that can be consistently adjusted to the background error. These nice advantages come however at the cost of a reduced rank modeling of the solution space. The B matrix is at most of rank N - 1 (N is the size of the ensemble) which is considerably lower than the dimension of state space. This rank deficiency may introduce spurious correlation errors, which particularly impact the quality of results associated with a high resolution computing grid. The common strategy to suppress these distant correlations for ensemble Kalman techniques is through localization procedures. In this paper we present key theoretical properties associated to different choices of methods involved in this setup and compare with an incremental 4DVar method experimentally the performances of several variations of an ensemble technique of interest. The comparisons have been led on the basis of a Shallow Water model and have been carried out both with synthetic data and real observations. We particularly addressed the potential pitfalls and advantages of the different methods. The results indicate an advantage in favor of the ensemble technique both in quality and computational cost when dealing with incomplete observations. We highlight as the premise of using ensemble variational assimilation, that the initial perturbation used to build the initial ensemble has to fit the physics of the observed phenomenon . We also apply the method to a stochastic shallow-water model which incorporate an uncertainty expression if the subgrid stress tensor related to the ensemble spread. References [1] A. C. Lorenc, The potential of the ensemble kalman filter for nwp - a comparison with 4d-var, Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., Vol. 129, pp. 3183-3203, 2003. [2] C. Liu, Q. Xiao, and B. Wang, An Ensemble-Based Four-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation Scheme. Part I: Technical Formulation and Preliminary Test, Mon. Wea. Rev., Vol. 136(9), pp. 3363-3373, 2008. [3] M. Buehner, Ensemble

  3. Ensemble streamflow assimilation with the National Water Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rafieeinasab, A.; McCreight, J. L.; Noh, S.; Seo, D. J.; Gochis, D.

    2017-12-01

    Through case studies of flooding across the US, we compare the performance of the National Water Model (NWM) data assimilation (DA) scheme to that of a newly implemented ensemble Kalman filter approach. The NOAA National Water Model (NWM) is an operational implementation of the community WRF-Hydro modeling system. As of August 2016, the NWM forecasts of distributed hydrologic states and fluxes (including soil moisture, snowpack, ET, and ponded water) over the contiguous United States have been publicly disseminated by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) . It also provides streamflow forecasts at more than 2.7 million river reaches up to 30 days in advance. The NWM employs a nudging scheme to assimilate more than 6,000 USGS streamflow observations and provide initial conditions for its forecasts. A problem with nudging is how the forecasts relax quickly to open-loop bias in the forecast. This has been partially addressed by an experimental bias correction approach which was found to have issues with phase errors during flooding events. In this work, we present an ensemble streamflow data assimilation approach combining new channel-only capabilities of the NWM and HydroDART (a coupling of the offline WRF-Hydro model and NCAR's Data Assimilation Research Testbed; DART). Our approach focuses on the single model state of discharge and incorporates error distributions on channel-influxes (overland and groundwater) in the assimilation via an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). In order to avoid filter degeneracy associated with a limited number of ensemble at large scale, DART's covariance inflation (Anderson, 2009) and localization capabilities are implemented and evaluated. The current NWM data assimilation scheme is compared to preliminary results from the EnKF application for several flooding case studies across the US.

  4. Ensemble Weight Enumerators for Protograph LDPC Codes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Divsalar, Dariush

    2006-01-01

    Recently LDPC codes with projected graph, or protograph structures have been proposed. In this paper, finite length ensemble weight enumerators for LDPC codes with protograph structures are obtained. Asymptotic results are derived as the block size goes to infinity. In particular we are interested in obtaining ensemble average weight enumerators for protograph LDPC codes which have minimum distance that grows linearly with block size. As with irregular ensembles, linear minimum distance property is sensitive to the proportion of degree-2 variable nodes. In this paper the derived results on ensemble weight enumerators show that linear minimum distance condition on degree distribution of unstructured irregular LDPC codes is a sufficient but not a necessary condition for protograph LDPC codes.

  5. Ensemble Kalman filtering with residual nudging

    KAUST Repository

    Luo, X.; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2012-01-01

    Covariance inflation and localisation are two important techniques that are used to improve the performance of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) by (in effect) adjusting the sample covariances of the estimates in the state space. In this work

  6. Ensemble Machine Learning Methods and Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Ma, Yunqian

    2012-01-01

    It is common wisdom that gathering a variety of views and inputs improves the process of decision making, and, indeed, underpins a democratic society. Dubbed “ensemble learning” by researchers in computational intelligence and machine learning, it is known to improve a decision system’s robustness and accuracy. Now, fresh developments are allowing researchers to unleash the power of ensemble learning in an increasing range of real-world applications. Ensemble learning algorithms such as “boosting” and “random forest” facilitate solutions to key computational issues such as face detection and are now being applied in areas as diverse as object trackingand bioinformatics.   Responding to a shortage of literature dedicated to the topic, this volume offers comprehensive coverage of state-of-the-art ensemble learning techniques, including various contributions from researchers in leading industrial research labs. At once a solid theoretical study and a practical guide, the volume is a windfall for r...

  7. AUC-Maximizing Ensembles through Metalearning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    LeDell, Erin; van der Laan, Mark J; Petersen, Maya

    2016-05-01

    Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) is often used to measure the performance of an estimator in binary classification problems. An AUC-maximizing classifier can have significant advantages in cases where ranking correctness is valued or if the outcome is rare. In a Super Learner ensemble, maximization of the AUC can be achieved by the use of an AUC-maximining metalearning algorithm. We discuss an implementation of an AUC-maximization technique that is formulated as a nonlinear optimization problem. We also evaluate the effectiveness of a large number of different nonlinear optimization algorithms to maximize the cross-validated AUC of the ensemble fit. The results provide evidence that AUC-maximizing metalearners can, and often do, out-perform non-AUC-maximizing metalearning methods, with respect to ensemble AUC. The results also demonstrate that as the level of imbalance in the training data increases, the Super Learner ensemble outperforms the top base algorithm by a larger degree.

  8. Multivariate localization methods for ensemble Kalman filtering

    KAUST Repository

    Roh, S.; Jun, M.; Szunyogh, I.; Genton, Marc G.

    2015-01-01

    the Schur (element-wise) product of the ensemble-based sample covariance matrix and a correlation matrix whose entries are obtained by the discretization of a distance-dependent correlation function. While the proper definition of the localization function

  9. Polarized ensembles of random pure states

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cunden, Fabio Deelan; Facchi, Paolo; Florio, Giuseppe

    2013-01-01

    A new family of polarized ensembles of random pure states is presented. These ensembles are obtained by linear superposition of two random pure states with suitable distributions, and are quite manageable. We will use the obtained results for two purposes: on the one hand we will be able to derive an efficient strategy for sampling states from isopurity manifolds. On the other, we will characterize the deviation of a pure quantum state from separability under the influence of noise. (paper)

  10. Polarized ensembles of random pure states

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deelan Cunden, Fabio; Facchi, Paolo; Florio, Giuseppe

    2013-08-01

    A new family of polarized ensembles of random pure states is presented. These ensembles are obtained by linear superposition of two random pure states with suitable distributions, and are quite manageable. We will use the obtained results for two purposes: on the one hand we will be able to derive an efficient strategy for sampling states from isopurity manifolds. On the other, we will characterize the deviation of a pure quantum state from separability under the influence of noise.

  11. Quark ensembles with infinite correlation length

    OpenAIRE

    Molodtsov, S. V.; Zinovjev, G. M.

    2014-01-01

    By studying quark ensembles with infinite correlation length we formulate the quantum field theory model that, as we show, is exactly integrable and develops an instability of its standard vacuum ensemble (the Dirac sea). We argue such an instability is rooted in high ground state degeneracy (for 'realistic' space-time dimensions) featuring a fairly specific form of energy distribution, and with the cutoff parameter going to infinity this inherent energy distribution becomes infinitely narrow...

  12. Orbital magnetism in ensembles of ballistic billiards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ullmo, D.; Richter, K.; Jalabert, R.A.

    1993-01-01

    The magnetic response of ensembles of small two-dimensional structures at finite temperatures is calculated. Using semiclassical methods and numerical calculation it is demonstrated that only short classical trajectories are relevant. The magnetic susceptibility is enhanced in regular systems, where these trajectories appear in families. For ensembles of squares large paramagnetic susceptibility is obtained, in good agreement with recent measurements in the ballistic regime. (authors). 20 refs., 2 figs

  13. Multivariate localization methods for ensemble Kalman filtering

    OpenAIRE

    S. Roh; M. Jun; I. Szunyogh; M. G. Genton

    2015-01-01

    In ensemble Kalman filtering (EnKF), the small number of ensemble members that is feasible to use in a practical data assimilation application leads to sampling variability of the estimates of the background error covariances. The standard approach to reducing the effects of this sampling variability, which has also been found to be highly efficient in improving the performance of EnKF, is the localization of the estimates of the covariances. One family of ...

  14. Impacts of calibration strategies and ensemble methods on ensemble flood forecasting over Lanjiang basin, Southeast China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Li; Xu, Yue-Ping

    2017-04-01

    Ensemble flood forecasting driven by numerical weather prediction products is becoming more commonly used in operational flood forecasting applications.In this study, a hydrological ensemble flood forecasting system based on Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and quantitative precipitation forecasts from TIGGE dataset is constructed for Lanjiang Basin, Southeast China. The impacts of calibration strategies and ensemble methods on the performance of the system are then evaluated.The hydrological model is optimized by parallel programmed ɛ-NSGAII multi-objective algorithm and two respectively parameterized models are determined to simulate daily flows and peak flows coupled with a modular approach.The results indicatethat the ɛ-NSGAII algorithm permits more efficient optimization and rational determination on parameter setting.It is demonstrated that the multimodel ensemble streamflow mean have better skills than the best singlemodel ensemble mean (ECMWF) and the multimodel ensembles weighted on members and skill scores outperform other multimodel ensembles. For typical flood event, it is proved that the flood can be predicted 3-4 days in advance, but the flows in rising limb can be captured with only 1-2 days ahead due to the flash feature. With respect to peak flows selected by Peaks Over Threshold approach, the ensemble means from either singlemodel or multimodels are generally underestimated as the extreme values are smoothed out by ensemble process.

  15. Towards a GME ensemble forecasting system: Ensemble initialization using the breeding technique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan D. Keller

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The quantitative forecast of precipitation requires a probabilistic background particularly with regard to forecast lead times of more than 3 days. As only ensemble simulations can provide useful information of the underlying probability density function, we built a new ensemble forecasting system (GME-EFS based on the GME model of the German Meteorological Service (DWD. For the generation of appropriate initial ensemble perturbations we chose the breeding technique developed by Toth and Kalnay (1993, 1997, which develops perturbations by estimating the regions of largest model error induced uncertainty. This method is applied and tested in the framework of quasi-operational forecasts for a three month period in 2007. The performance of the resulting ensemble forecasts are compared to the operational ensemble prediction systems ECMWF EPS and NCEP GFS by means of ensemble spread of free atmosphere parameters (geopotential and temperature and ensemble skill of precipitation forecasting. This comparison indicates that the GME ensemble forecasting system (GME-EFS provides reasonable forecasts with spread skill score comparable to that of the NCEP GFS. An analysis with the continuous ranked probability score exhibits a lack of resolution for the GME forecasts compared to the operational ensembles. However, with significant enhancements during the 3 month test period, the first results of our work with the GME-EFS indicate possibilities for further development as well as the potential for later operational usage.

  16. Monte Carlo Molecular Simulation with Isobaric-Isothermal and Gibbs-NPT Ensembles

    KAUST Repository

    Du, Shouhong

    2012-01-01

    This thesis presents Monte Carlo methods for simulations of phase behaviors of Lennard-Jones fluids. The isobaric-isothermal (NPT) ensemble and Gibbs-NPT ensemble are introduced in detail. NPT ensemble is employed to determine the phase diagram of pure component. The reduced simulation results are verified by comparison with the equation of state by by Johnson et al. and results with L-J parameters of methane agree considerably with the experiment measurements. We adopt the blocking method for variance estimation and error analysis of the simulation results. The relationship between variance and number of Monte Carlo cycles, error propagation and Random Number Generator performance are also investigated. We review the Gibbs-NPT ensemble employed for phase equilibrium of binary mixture. The phase equilibrium is achieved by performing three types of trial move: particle displacement, volume rearrangement and particle transfer. The simulation models and the simulation details are introduced. The simulation results of phase coexistence for methane and ethane are reported with comparison of the experimental data. Good agreement is found for a wide range of pressures. The contribution of this thesis work lies in the study of the error analysis with respect to the Monte Carlo cycles and number of particles in some interesting aspects.

  17. Monte Carlo Molecular Simulation with Isobaric-Isothermal and Gibbs-NPT Ensembles

    KAUST Repository

    Du, Shouhong

    2012-05-01

    This thesis presents Monte Carlo methods for simulations of phase behaviors of Lennard-Jones fluids. The isobaric-isothermal (NPT) ensemble and Gibbs-NPT ensemble are introduced in detail. NPT ensemble is employed to determine the phase diagram of pure component. The reduced simulation results are verified by comparison with the equation of state by by Johnson et al. and results with L-J parameters of methane agree considerably with the experiment measurements. We adopt the blocking method for variance estimation and error analysis of the simulation results. The relationship between variance and number of Monte Carlo cycles, error propagation and Random Number Generator performance are also investigated. We review the Gibbs-NPT ensemble employed for phase equilibrium of binary mixture. The phase equilibrium is achieved by performing three types of trial move: particle displacement, volume rearrangement and particle transfer. The simulation models and the simulation details are introduced. The simulation results of phase coexistence for methane and ethane are reported with comparison of the experimental data. Good agreement is found for a wide range of pressures. The contribution of this thesis work lies in the study of the error analysis with respect to the Monte Carlo cycles and number of particles in some interesting aspects.

  18. Conductor gestures influence evaluations of ensemble performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrison, Steven J; Price, Harry E; Smedley, Eric M; Meals, Cory D

    2014-01-01

    Previous research has found that listener evaluations of ensemble performances vary depending on the expressivity of the conductor's gestures, even when performances are otherwise identical. It was the purpose of the present study to test whether this effect of visual information was evident in the evaluation of specific aspects of ensemble performance: articulation and dynamics. We constructed a set of 32 music performances that combined auditory and visual information and were designed to feature a high degree of contrast along one of two target characteristics: articulation and dynamics. We paired each of four music excerpts recorded by a chamber ensemble in both a high- and low-contrast condition with video of four conductors demonstrating high- and low-contrast gesture specifically appropriate to either articulation or dynamics. Using one of two equivalent test forms, college music majors and non-majors (N = 285) viewed sixteen 30 s performances and evaluated the quality of the ensemble's articulation, dynamics, technique, and tempo along with overall expressivity. Results showed significantly higher evaluations for performances featuring high rather than low conducting expressivity regardless of the ensemble's performance quality. Evaluations for both articulation and dynamics were strongly and positively correlated with evaluations of overall ensemble expressivity.

  19. Rotationally invariant family of Levy-like random matrix ensembles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Jinmyung; Muttalib, K A

    2009-01-01

    We introduce a family of rotationally invariant random matrix ensembles characterized by a parameter λ. While λ = 1 corresponds to well-known critical ensembles, we show that λ ≠ 1 describes 'Levy-like' ensembles, characterized by power-law eigenvalue densities. For λ > 1 the density is bounded, as in Gaussian ensembles, but λ < 1 describes ensembles characterized by densities with long tails. In particular, the model allows us to evaluate, in terms of a novel family of orthogonal polynomials, the eigenvalue correlations for Levy-like ensembles. These correlations differ qualitatively from those in either the Gaussian or the critical ensembles. (fast track communication)

  20. Coherent Rabi Dynamics of a Superradiant Spin Ensemble in a Microwave Cavity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, B. C.; Tyryshkin, A. M.; Riemann, H.; Abrosimov, N. V.; Becker, P.; Pohl, H.-J.; Thewalt, M. L. W.; Itoh, K. M.; Lyon, S. A.

    2017-07-01

    We achieve the strong-coupling regime between an ensemble of phosphorus donor spins in a highly enriched 28Si crystal and a 3D dielectric resonator. Spins are polarized beyond Boltzmann equilibrium using spin-selective optical excitation of the no-phonon bound exciton transition resulting in N =3.6 ×1 013 unpaired spins in the ensemble. We observe a normal mode splitting of the spin-ensemble-cavity polariton resonances of 2 g √{N }=580 kHz (where each spin is coupled with strength g ) in a cavity with a quality factor of 75 000 (γ ≪κ ≈60 kHz , where γ and κ are the spin dephasing and cavity loss rates, respectively). The spin ensemble has a long dephasing time (T2*=9 μ s ) providing a wide window for viewing the dynamics of the coupled spin-ensemble-cavity system. The free-induction decay shows up to a dozen collapses and revivals revealing a coherent exchange of excitations between the superradiant state of the spin ensemble and the cavity at the rate g √{N }. The ensemble is found to evolve as a single large pseudospin according to the Tavis-Cummings model due to minimal inhomogeneous broadening and uniform spin-cavity coupling. We demonstrate independent control of the total spin and the initial Z projection of the psuedospin using optical excitation and microwave manipulation, respectively. We vary the microwave excitation power to rotate the pseudospin on the Bloch sphere and observe a long delay in the onset of the superradiant emission as the pseudospin approaches full inversion. This delay is accompanied by an abrupt π -phase shift in the peusdospin microwave emission. The scaling of this delay with the initial angle and the sudden phase shift are explained by the Tavis-Cummings model.

  1. Ensemble data assimilation in the Red Sea: sensitivity to ensemble selection and atmospheric forcing

    KAUST Repository

    Toye, Habib

    2017-05-26

    We present our efforts to build an ensemble data assimilation and forecasting system for the Red Sea. The system consists of the high-resolution Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) to simulate ocean circulation and of the Data Research Testbed (DART) for ensemble data assimilation. DART has been configured to integrate all members of an ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF) in parallel, based on which we adapted the ensemble operations in DART to use an invariant ensemble, i.e., an ensemble Optimal Interpolation (EnOI) algorithm. This approach requires only single forward model integration in the forecast step and therefore saves substantial computational cost. To deal with the strong seasonal variability of the Red Sea, the EnOI ensemble is then seasonally selected from a climatology of long-term model outputs. Observations of remote sensing sea surface height (SSH) and sea surface temperature (SST) are assimilated every 3 days. Real-time atmospheric fields from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are used as forcing in different assimilation experiments. We investigate the behaviors of the EAKF and (seasonal-) EnOI and compare their performances for assimilating and forecasting the circulation of the Red Sea. We further assess the sensitivity of the assimilation system to various filtering parameters (ensemble size, inflation) and atmospheric forcing.

  2. The ensemble variance of pure-tone measurements in reverberation rooms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, Finn; Molares, Alfonso Rodriguez

    2010-01-01

    Reverberation rooms are often used for measuring the sound power emitted by sources of sound. At medium and high frequencies, where the modal overlap is high, a fairly simple model based on sums of waves from random directions having random phase relations gives good predictions of the ensemble s...

  3. Ensemble correlation PIV applied to bubble plumes rising in a bubble column.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Delnoij, E.; Westerweel, J.; Deen, N.G.; Kuipers, J.A.M.; van Swaaij, Willibrordus Petrus Maria

    1999-01-01

    This paper discusses an ensemble correlation, double-exposure single-frame, particle image velocimetry (PIV) technique that can be applied to study dispersed gas¿liquid two-phase flows. The essentials of this technique will be reviewed and several important issues concerning the implementation of

  4. Designing a Qualitative Data Collection Strategy (QDCS) for Africa - Phase 1: A Gap Analysis of Existing Models, Simulations, and Tools Relating to Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-06-01

    QDCS) for Africa – Phase I: A Gap Analysis of Existing Models, Simulations, and Tools Relating to Africa Ashley N. Bybee , Project Leader Dominick E...Strategy (QDCS) for Africa – Phase I: A Gap Analysis of Existing Models, Simulations, and Tools Relating to Africa Ashley N. Bybee , Project Leader...Africa Phase I: A Gap Analysis of Existing Models, Simulations, and Tools Relating to Africa June 2012 Authors: Dr. Ashley Bybee , Project Lead Dr

  5. The Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, A. W.; Thielen, J.; Pappenberger, F.; Schaake, J. C.; Hartman, R. K.

    2012-12-01

    The Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment was established in March, 2004, at a workshop hosted by the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF). With support from the US National Weather Service (NWS) and the European Commission (EC), the HEPEX goal was to bring the international hydrological and meteorological communities together to advance the understanding and adoption of hydrological ensemble forecasts for decision support in emergency management and water resources sectors. The strategy to meet this goal includes meetings that connect the user, forecast producer and research communities to exchange ideas, data and methods; the coordination of experiments to address specific challenges; and the formation of testbeds to facilitate shared experimentation. HEPEX has organized about a dozen international workshops, as well as sessions at scientific meetings (including AMS, AGU and EGU) and special issues of scientific journals where workshop results have been published. Today, the HEPEX mission is to demonstrate the added value of hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) for emergency management and water resources sectors to make decisions that have important consequences for economy, public health, safety, and the environment. HEPEX is now organised around six major themes that represent core elements of a hydrologic ensemble prediction enterprise: input and pre-processing, ensemble techniques, data assimilation, post-processing, verification, and communication and use in decision making. This poster presents an overview of recent and planned HEPEX activities, highlighting case studies that exemplify the focus and objectives of HEPEX.

  6. Method of collective variables with reference system for the grand canonical ensemble

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yukhnovskii, I.R.

    1989-01-01

    A method of collective variables with special reference system for the grand canonical ensemble is presented. An explicit form is obtained for the basis sixth-degree measure density needed to describe the liquid-gas phase transition. Here the author presents the fundamentals of the method, which are as follows: (1) the functional form for the partition function in the grand canonical ensemble; (2) derivation of thermodynamic relations for the coefficients of the Jacobian; (3) transition to the problem on an adequate lattice; and (4) obtaining of the explicit form for the functional of the partition function

  7. Insights into the deterministic skill of air quality ensembles from the analysis of AQMEII data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Kioutsioukis

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Simulations from chemical weather models are subject to uncertainties in the input data (e.g. emission inventory, initial and boundary conditions as well as those intrinsic to the model (e.g. physical parameterization, chemical mechanism. Multi-model ensembles can improve the forecast skill, provided that certain mathematical conditions are fulfilled. In this work, four ensemble methods were applied to two different datasets, and their performance was compared for ozone (O3, nitrogen dioxide (NO2 and particulate matter (PM10. Apart from the unconditional ensemble average, the approach behind the other three methods relies on adding optimum weights to members or constraining the ensemble to those members that meet certain conditions in time or frequency domain. The two different datasets were created for the first and second phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII. The methods are evaluated against ground level observations collected from the EMEP (European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme and AirBase databases. The goal of the study is to quantify to what extent we can extract predictable signals from an ensemble with superior skill over the single models and the ensemble mean. Verification statistics show that the deterministic models simulate better O3 than NO2 and PM10, linked to different levels of complexity in the represented processes. The unconditional ensemble mean achieves higher skill compared to each station's best deterministic model at no more than 60 % of the sites, indicating a combination of members with unbalanced skill difference and error dependence for the rest. The promotion of the right amount of accuracy and diversity within the ensemble results in an average additional skill of up to 31 % compared to using the full ensemble in an unconditional way. The skill improvements were higher for O3 and lower for PM10, associated with the extent of potential changes in the joint

  8. Understanding ensemble protein folding at atomic detail

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wallin, Stefan; Shakhnovich, Eugene I

    2008-01-01

    Although far from routine, simulating the folding of specific short protein chains on the computer, at a detailed atomic level, is starting to become a reality. This remarkable progress, which has been made over the last decade or so, allows a fundamental aspect of the protein folding process to be addressed, namely its statistical nature. In order to make quantitative comparisons with experimental kinetic data a complete ensemble view of folding must be achieved, with key observables averaged over the large number of microscopically different folding trajectories available to a protein chain. Here we review recent advances in atomic-level protein folding simulations and the new insight provided by them into the protein folding process. An important element in understanding ensemble folding kinetics are methods for analyzing many separate folding trajectories, and we discuss techniques developed to condense the large amount of information contained in an ensemble of trajectories into a manageable picture of the folding process. (topical review)

  9. Lattice gauge theory in the microcanonical ensemble

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Callaway, D.J.E.; Rahman, A.

    1983-01-01

    The microcanonical-ensemble formulation of lattice gauge theory proposed recently is examined in detail. Expectation values in this new ensemble are determined by solving a large set of coupled ordinary differential equations, after the fashion of a molecular dynamics simulation. Following a brief review of the microcanonical ensemble, calculations are performed for the gauge groups U(1), SU(2), and SU(3). The results are compared and contrasted with standard methods of computation. Several advantages of the new formalism are noted. For example, no random numbers are required to update the system. Also, this update is performed in a simultaneous fashion. Thus the microcanonical method presumably adapts well to parallel processing techniques, especially when the p action is highly nonlocal (such as when fermions are included)

  10. Ensemble Network Architecture for Deep Reinforcement Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xi-liang Chen

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The popular deep Q learning algorithm is known to be instability because of the Q-value’s shake and overestimation action values under certain conditions. These issues tend to adversely affect their performance. In this paper, we develop the ensemble network architecture for deep reinforcement learning which is based on value function approximation. The temporal ensemble stabilizes the training process by reducing the variance of target approximation error and the ensemble of target values reduces the overestimate and makes better performance by estimating more accurate Q-value. Our results show that this architecture leads to statistically significant better value evaluation and more stable and better performance on several classical control tasks at OpenAI Gym environment.

  11. Embedded random matrix ensembles in quantum physics

    CERN Document Server

    Kota, V K B

    2014-01-01

    Although used with increasing frequency in many branches of physics, random matrix ensembles are not always sufficiently specific to account for important features of the physical system at hand. One refinement which retains the basic stochastic approach but allows for such features consists in the use of embedded ensembles.  The present text is an exhaustive introduction to and survey of this important field. Starting with an easy-to-read introduction to general random matrix theory, the text then develops the necessary concepts from the beginning, accompanying the reader to the frontiers of present-day research. With some notable exceptions, to date these ensembles have primarily been applied in nuclear spectroscopy. A characteristic example is the use of a random two-body interaction in the framework of the nuclear shell model. Yet, topics in atomic physics, mesoscopic physics, quantum information science and statistical mechanics of isolated finite quantum systems can also be addressed using these ensemb...

  12. Can decadal climate predictions be improved by ocean ensemble dispersion filtering?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kadow, C.; Illing, S.; Kröner, I.; Ulbrich, U.; Cubasch, U.

    2017-12-01

    Decadal predictions by Earth system models aim to capture the state and phase of the climate several years inadvance. Atmosphere-ocean interaction plays an important role for such climate forecasts. While short-termweather forecasts represent an initial value problem and long-term climate projections represent a boundarycondition problem, the decadal climate prediction falls in-between these two time scales. The ocean memorydue to its heat capacity holds big potential skill on the decadal scale. In recent years, more precise initializationtechniques of coupled Earth system models (incl. atmosphere and ocean) have improved decadal predictions.Ensembles are another important aspect. Applying slightly perturbed predictions results in an ensemble. Insteadof using and evaluating one prediction, but the whole ensemble or its ensemble average, improves a predictionsystem. However, climate models in general start losing the initialized signal and its predictive skill from oneforecast year to the next. Here we show that the climate prediction skill of an Earth system model can be improvedby a shift of the ocean state toward the ensemble mean of its individual members at seasonal intervals. Wefound that this procedure, called ensemble dispersion filter, results in more accurate results than the standarddecadal prediction. Global mean and regional temperature, precipitation, and winter cyclone predictions showan increased skill up to 5 years ahead. Furthermore, the novel technique outperforms predictions with largerensembles and higher resolution. Our results demonstrate how decadal climate predictions benefit from oceanensemble dispersion filtering toward the ensemble mean. This study is part of MiKlip (fona-miklip.de) - a major project on decadal climate prediction in Germany.We focus on the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model using the low-resolution version (MPI-ESM-LR) andMiKlip's basic initialization strategy as in 2017 published decadal climate forecast: http

  13. Ensemble flood simulation for a small dam catchment in Japan using 10 and 2 km resolution nonhydrostatic model rainfalls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobayashi, Kenichiro; Otsuka, Shigenori; Apip; Saito, Kazuo

    2016-08-01

    This paper presents a study on short-term ensemble flood forecasting specifically for small dam catchments in Japan. Numerical ensemble simulations of rainfall from the Japan Meteorological Agency nonhydrostatic model (JMA-NHM) are used as the input data to a rainfall-runoff model for predicting river discharge into a dam. The ensemble weather simulations use a conventional 10 km and a high-resolution 2 km spatial resolutions. A distributed rainfall-runoff model is constructed for the Kasahori dam catchment (approx. 70 km2) and applied with the ensemble rainfalls. The results show that the hourly maximum and cumulative catchment-average rainfalls of the 2 km resolution JMA-NHM ensemble simulation are more appropriate than the 10 km resolution rainfalls. All the simulated inflows based on the 2 and 10 km rainfalls become larger than the flood discharge of 140 m3 s-1, a threshold value for flood control. The inflows with the 10 km resolution ensemble rainfall are all considerably smaller than the observations, while at least one simulated discharge out of 11 ensemble members with the 2 km resolution rainfalls reproduces the first peak of the inflow at the Kasahori dam with similar amplitude to observations, although there are spatiotemporal lags between simulation and observation. To take positional lags into account of the ensemble discharge simulation, the rainfall distribution in each ensemble member is shifted so that the catchment-averaged cumulative rainfall of the Kasahori dam maximizes. The runoff simulation with the position-shifted rainfalls shows much better results than the original ensemble discharge simulations.

  14. Ensemble Kalman methods for inverse problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iglesias, Marco A; Law, Kody J H; Stuart, Andrew M

    2013-01-01

    The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) was introduced by Evensen in 1994 (Evensen 1994 J. Geophys. Res. 99 10143–62) as a novel method for data assimilation: state estimation for noisily observed time-dependent problems. Since that time it has had enormous impact in many application domains because of its robustness and ease of implementation, and numerical evidence of its accuracy. In this paper we propose the application of an iterative ensemble Kalman method for the solution of a wide class of inverse problems. In this context we show that the estimate of the unknown function that we obtain with the ensemble Kalman method lies in a subspace A spanned by the initial ensemble. Hence the resulting error may be bounded above by the error found from the best approximation in this subspace. We provide numerical experiments which compare the error incurred by the ensemble Kalman method for inverse problems with the error of the best approximation in A, and with variants on traditional least-squares approaches, restricted to the subspace A. In so doing we demonstrate that the ensemble Kalman method for inverse problems provides a derivative-free optimization method with comparable accuracy to that achieved by traditional least-squares approaches. Furthermore, we also demonstrate that the accuracy is of the same order of magnitude as that achieved by the best approximation. Three examples are used to demonstrate these assertions: inversion of a compact linear operator; inversion of piezometric head to determine hydraulic conductivity in a Darcy model of groundwater flow; and inversion of Eulerian velocity measurements at positive times to determine the initial condition in an incompressible fluid. (paper)

  15. Temporal intermittency and the lifetime of chimera states in ensembles of nonlocally coupled chaotic oscillators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semenova, N. I.; Strelkova, G. I.; Anishchenko, V. S.; Zakharova, A.

    2017-06-01

    We describe numerical results for the dynamics of networks of nonlocally coupled chaotic maps. Switchings in time between amplitude and phase chimera states have been first established and studied. It has been shown that in autonomous ensembles, a nonstationary regime of switchings has a finite lifetime and represents a transient process towards a stationary regime of phase chimera. The lifetime of the nonstationary switching regime can be increased to infinity by applying short-term noise perturbations.

  16. Cluster ensembles, quantization and the dilogarithm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fock, Vladimir; Goncharov, Alexander B.

    2009-01-01

    A cluster ensemble is a pair of positive spaces (i.e. varieties equipped with positive atlases), coming with an action of a symmetry group . The space is closely related to the spectrum of a cluster algebra [ 12 ]. The two spaces are related by a morphism . The space is equipped with a closed -form......, possibly degenerate, and the space has a Poisson structure. The map is compatible with these structures. The dilogarithm together with its motivic and quantum avatars plays a central role in the cluster ensemble structure. We define a non-commutative -deformation of the -space. When is a root of unity...

  17. Ensemble computing for the petroleum industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Annaratone, M.; Dossa, D.

    1995-01-01

    Computer downsizing is one of the most often used buzzwords in today's competitive business, and the petroleum industry is at the forefront of this revolution. Ensemble computing provides the key for computer downsizing with its first incarnation, i.e., workstation farms. This paper concerns the importance of increasing the productivity cycle and not just the execution time of a job. The authors introduce the concept of ensemble computing and workstation farms. The they discuss how different computing paradigms can be addressed by workstation farms

  18. Wang-Landau Reaction Ensemble Method: Simulation of Weak Polyelectrolytes and General Acid-Base Reactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landsgesell, Jonas; Holm, Christian; Smiatek, Jens

    2017-02-14

    We present a novel method for the study of weak polyelectrolytes and general acid-base reactions in molecular dynamics and Monte Carlo simulations. The approach combines the advantages of the reaction ensemble and the Wang-Landau sampling method. Deprotonation and protonation reactions are simulated explicitly with the help of the reaction ensemble method, while the accurate sampling of the corresponding phase space is achieved by the Wang-Landau approach. The combination of both techniques provides a sufficient statistical accuracy such that meaningful estimates for the density of states and the partition sum can be obtained. With regard to these estimates, several thermodynamic observables like the heat capacity or reaction free energies can be calculated. We demonstrate that the computation times for the calculation of titration curves with a high statistical accuracy can be significantly decreased when compared to the original reaction ensemble method. The applicability of our approach is validated by the study of weak polyelectrolytes and their thermodynamic properties.

  19. Problems of a Statistical Ensemble Theory for Systems Far from Equilibrium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebeling, Werner

    The development of a general statistical physics of nonequilibrium systems was one of the main unfinished tasks of statistical physics of the 20th century. The aim of this work is the study of a special class of nonequilibrium systems where the formulation of an ensemble theory of some generality is possible. These are the so-called canonical-dissipative systems, where the driving terms are determined by invariants of motion. We construct canonical-dissipative systems which are ergodic on certain surfaces on the phase plane. These systems may be described by a non-equilibrium microcanocical ensemble, corresponding to an equal distribution on the target surface. Next we construct and solve Fokker-Planck equations; this leads to a kind of canonical-dissipative ensemble. In the last part we discuss the thoretical problem how to define bifurcations in the framework of nonequilibrium statistics and several possible applications.

  20. Response of ENSO amplitude to global warming in CESM large ensemble: uncertainty due to internal variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Xiao-Tong; Hui, Chang; Yeh, Sang-Wook

    2018-06-01

    El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of variability in the coupled ocean-atmospheric system. Future projections of ENSO change under global warming are highly uncertain among models. In this study, the effect of internal variability on ENSO amplitude change in future climate projections is investigated based on a 40-member ensemble from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) project. A large uncertainty is identified among ensemble members due to internal variability. The inter-member diversity is associated with a zonal dipole pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) change in the mean along the equator, which is similar to the second empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) in the unforced control simulation. The uncertainty in CESM-LE is comparable in magnitude to that among models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), suggesting the contribution of internal variability to the intermodel uncertainty in ENSO amplitude change. However, the causations between changes in ENSO amplitude and the mean state are distinct between CESM-LE and CMIP5 ensemble. The CESM-LE results indicate that a large ensemble of 15 members is needed to separate the relative contributions to ENSO amplitude change over the twenty-first century between forced response and internal variability.

  1. A class of energy-based ensembles in Tsallis statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chandrashekar, R; Naina Mohammed, S S

    2011-01-01

    A comprehensive investigation is carried out on the class of energy-based ensembles. The eight ensembles are divided into two main classes. In the isothermal class of ensembles the individual members are at the same temperature. A unified framework is evolved to describe the four isothermal ensembles using the currently accepted third constraint formalism. The isothermal–isobaric, grand canonical and generalized ensembles are illustrated through a study of the classical nonrelativistic and extreme relativistic ideal gas models. An exact calculation is possible only in the case of the isothermal–isobaric ensemble. The study of the ideal gas models in the grand canonical and the generalized ensembles has been carried out using a perturbative procedure with the nonextensivity parameter (1 − q) as the expansion parameter. Though all the thermodynamic quantities have been computed up to a particular order in (1 − q) the procedure can be extended up to any arbitrary order in the expansion parameter. In the adiabatic class of ensembles the individual members of the ensemble have the same value of the heat function and a unified formulation to described all four ensembles is given. The nonrelativistic and the extreme relativistic ideal gases are studied in the isoenthalpic–isobaric ensemble, the adiabatic ensemble with number fluctuations and the adiabatic ensemble with number and particle fluctuations

  2. The Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Andy; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Ramos, Maria-Helena

    2015-04-01

    The Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment was established in March, 2004, at a workshop hosted by the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), and co-sponsored by the US National Weather Service (NWS) and the European Commission (EC). The HEPEX goal was to bring the international hydrological and meteorological communities together to advance the understanding and adoption of hydrological ensemble forecasts for decision support. HEPEX pursues this goal through research efforts and practical implementations involving six core elements of a hydrologic ensemble prediction enterprise: input and pre-processing, ensemble techniques, data assimilation, post-processing, verification, and communication and use in decision making. HEPEX has grown through meetings that connect the user, forecast producer and research communities to exchange ideas, data and methods; the coordination of experiments to address specific challenges; and the formation of testbeds to facilitate shared experimentation. In the last decade, HEPEX has organized over a dozen international workshops, as well as sessions at scientific meetings (including AMS, AGU and EGU) and special issues of scientific journals where workshop results have been published. Through these interactions and an active online blog (www.hepex.org), HEPEX has built a strong and active community of nearly 400 researchers & practitioners around the world. This poster presents an overview of recent and planned HEPEX activities, highlighting case studies that exemplify the focus and objectives of HEPEX.

  3. A method for ensemble wildland fire simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark A. Finney; Isaac C. Grenfell; Charles W. McHugh; Robert C. Seli; Diane Trethewey; Richard D. Stratton; Stuart Brittain

    2011-01-01

    An ensemble simulation system that accounts for uncertainty in long-range weather conditions and two-dimensional wildland fire spread is described. Fuel moisture is expressed based on the energy release component, a US fire danger rating index, and its variation throughout the fire season is modeled using time series analysis of historical weather data. This analysis...

  4. The Phantasmagoria of Competition in School Ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abramo, Joseph Michael

    2017-01-01

    Participation in competition festivals--where students and ensembles compete against each other for high scores and accolades--is a widespread practice in North American formal music education. In this article, I use Marx's theories of labor, value, and phantasmagoria to suggest a capitalist logic that structures these competitions. Marx's…

  5. Ensembl Genomes 2016: more genomes, more complexity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kersey, Paul Julian; Allen, James E; Armean, Irina; Boddu, Sanjay; Bolt, Bruce J; Carvalho-Silva, Denise; Christensen, Mikkel; Davis, Paul; Falin, Lee J; Grabmueller, Christoph; Humphrey, Jay; Kerhornou, Arnaud; Khobova, Julia; Aranganathan, Naveen K; Langridge, Nicholas; Lowy, Ernesto; McDowall, Mark D; Maheswari, Uma; Nuhn, Michael; Ong, Chuang Kee; Overduin, Bert; Paulini, Michael; Pedro, Helder; Perry, Emily; Spudich, Giulietta; Tapanari, Electra; Walts, Brandon; Williams, Gareth; Tello-Ruiz, Marcela; Stein, Joshua; Wei, Sharon; Ware, Doreen; Bolser, Daniel M; Howe, Kevin L; Kulesha, Eugene; Lawson, Daniel; Maslen, Gareth; Staines, Daniel M

    2016-01-04

    Ensembl Genomes (http://www.ensemblgenomes.org) is an integrating resource for genome-scale data from non-vertebrate species, complementing the resources for vertebrate genomics developed in the context of the Ensembl project (http://www.ensembl.org). Together, the two resources provide a consistent set of programmatic and interactive interfaces to a rich range of data including reference sequence, gene models, transcriptional data, genetic variation and comparative analysis. This paper provides an update to the previous publications about the resource, with a focus on recent developments. These include the development of new analyses and views to represent polyploid genomes (of which bread wheat is the primary exemplar); and the continued up-scaling of the resource, which now includes over 23 000 bacterial genomes, 400 fungal genomes and 100 protist genomes, in addition to 55 genomes from invertebrate metazoa and 39 genomes from plants. This dramatic increase in the number of included genomes is one part of a broader effort to automate the integration of archival data (genome sequence, but also associated RNA sequence data and variant calls) within the context of reference genomes and make it available through the Ensembl user interfaces. © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

  6. NYYD Ensemble ja Riho Sibul / Anneli Remme

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Remme, Anneli, 1968-

    2001-01-01

    Gavin Bryarsi teos "Jesus' Blood Never Failed Me Yet" NYYD Ensemble'i ja Riho Sibula esituses 27. detsembril Pauluse kirikus Tartus ja 28. detsembril Rootsi- Mihkli kirikus Tallinnas. Kaastegevad Tartu Ülikooli Kammerkoor (Tartus) ja kammerkoor Voces Musicales (Tallinnas). Kunstiline juht Olari Elts

  7. Conductor gestures influence evaluations of ensemble performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven eMorrison

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Previous research has found that listener evaluations of ensemble performances vary depending on the expressivity of the conductor’s gestures, even when performances are otherwise identical. It was the purpose of the present study to test whether this effect of visual information was evident in the evaluation of specific aspects of ensemble performance, articulation and dynamics. We constructed a set of 32 music performances that combined auditory and visual information and were designed to feature a high degree of contrast along one of two target characteristics: articulation and dynamics. We paired each of four music excerpts recorded by a chamber ensemble in both a high- and low-contrast condition with video of four conductors demonstrating high- and low-contrast gesture specifically appropriate to either articulation or dynamics. Using one of two equivalent test forms, college music majors and nonmajors (N = 285 viewed sixteen 30-second performances and evaluated the quality of the ensemble’s articulation, dynamics, technique and tempo along with overall expressivity. Results showed significantly higher evaluations for performances featuring high rather than low conducting expressivity regardless of the ensemble’s performance quality. Evaluations for both articulation and dynamics were strongly and positively correlated with evaluations of overall ensemble expressivity.

  8. Genetic Algorithm Optimized Neural Networks Ensemble as ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    NJD

    Improvements in neural network calibration models by a novel approach using neural network ensemble (NNE) for the simultaneous ... process by training a number of neural networks. .... Matlab® version 6.1 was employed for building principal component ... provide a fair simulation of calibration data set with some degree.

  9. A Theoretical Analysis of Why Hybrid Ensembles Work

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuo-Wei Hsu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Inspired by the group decision making process, ensembles or combinations of classifiers have been found favorable in a wide variety of application domains. Some researchers propose to use the mixture of two different types of classification algorithms to create a hybrid ensemble. Why does such an ensemble work? The question remains. Following the concept of diversity, which is one of the fundamental elements of the success of ensembles, we conduct a theoretical analysis of why hybrid ensembles work, connecting using different algorithms to accuracy gain. We also conduct experiments on classification performance of hybrid ensembles of classifiers created by decision tree and naïve Bayes classification algorithms, each of which is a top data mining algorithm and often used to create non-hybrid ensembles. Therefore, through this paper, we provide a complement to the theoretical foundation of creating and using hybrid ensembles.

  10. Ensemble of classifiers based network intrusion detection system performance bound

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Mkuzangwe, Nenekazi NP

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides a performance bound of a network intrusion detection system (NIDS) that uses an ensemble of classifiers. Currently researchers rely on implementing the ensemble of classifiers based NIDS before they can determine the performance...

  11. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) [2.5 Deg.

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) is a weather forecast model made up of 21 separate forecasts, or ensemble members. The National Centers for Environmental...

  12. Using ensemble forecasting for wind power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Giebel, G.; Landberg, L.; Badger, J. [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark); Sattler, K.

    2003-07-01

    Short-term prediction of wind power has a long tradition in Denmark. It is an essential tool for the operators to keep the grid from becoming unstable in a region like Jutland, where more than 27% of the electricity consumption comes from wind power. This means that the minimum load is already lower than the maximum production from wind energy alone. Danish utilities have therefore used short-term prediction of wind energy since the mid-90ies. However, the accuracy is still far from being sufficient in the eyes of the utilities (used to have load forecasts accurate to within 5% on a one-week horizon). The Ensemble project tries to alleviate the dependency of the forecast quality on one model by using multiple models, and also will investigate the possibilities of using the model spread of multiple models or of dedicated ensemble runs for a prediction of the uncertainty of the forecast. Usually, short-term forecasting works (especially for the horizon beyond 6 hours) by gathering input from a Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model. This input data is used together with online data in statistical models (this is the case eg in Zephyr/WPPT) to yield the output of the wind farms or of a whole region for the next 48 hours (only limited by the NWP model horizon). For the accuracy of the final production forecast, the accuracy of the NWP prediction is paramount. While many efforts are underway to increase the accuracy of the NWP forecasts themselves (which ultimately are limited by the amount of computing power available, the lack of a tight observational network on the Atlantic and limited physics modelling), another approach is to use ensembles of different models or different model runs. This can be either an ensemble of different models output for the same area, using different data assimilation schemes and different model physics, or a dedicated ensemble run by a large institution, where the same model is run with slight variations in initial conditions and

  13. Preserving the Boltzmann ensemble in replica-exchange molecular dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooke, Ben; Schmidler, Scott C

    2008-10-28

    We consider the convergence behavior of replica-exchange molecular dynamics (REMD) [Sugita and Okamoto, Chem. Phys. Lett. 314, 141 (1999)] based on properties of the numerical integrators in the underlying isothermal molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. We show that a variety of deterministic algorithms favored by molecular dynamics practitioners for constant-temperature simulation of biomolecules fail either to be measure invariant or irreducible, and are therefore not ergodic. We then show that REMD using these algorithms also fails to be ergodic. As a result, the entire configuration space may not be explored even in an infinitely long simulation, and the simulation may not converge to the desired equilibrium Boltzmann ensemble. Moreover, our analysis shows that for initial configurations with unfavorable energy, it may be impossible for the system to reach a region surrounding the minimum energy configuration. We demonstrate these failures of REMD algorithms for three small systems: a Gaussian distribution (simple harmonic oscillator dynamics), a bimodal mixture of Gaussians distribution, and the alanine dipeptide. Examination of the resulting phase plots and equilibrium configuration densities indicates significant errors in the ensemble generated by REMD simulation. We describe a simple modification to address these failures based on a stochastic hybrid Monte Carlo correction, and prove that this is ergodic.

  14. Guidance for the evaluation of innovative nuclear reactors and fuel cycles. Report of Phase 1A of the International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-06-01

    technicians of the calibre and size needed to support a truly substantial nuclear contribution to global energy supplies. To set out the boundary conditions for the desired innovations of nuclear energy systems, INPRO established several task groups to define: Prospects and Potentials of nuclear power within the next 50 years; User Requirements for innovative nuclear energy systems (INS) in the area of Economics, Sustainability and Environment, Safety, Waste Management, Proliferation Resistance, and Cross Cutting Issues; and Methodology for Assessment of INS. Having completed these tasks, it is planned that several Member States will apply the INPRO methodology to make a judgement on the potential of INS under consideration for development, to specify corresponding research, development and demonstration (RD and D) needs for their development, and to identify improvements in the methodology. The results achieved as of the end of April 2003 (Phase 1A) are presented in this report. It is intended to issue separately the working material on which this report is based and which was produced at a number of consultancy meetings held during the course of the Project

  15. NUE - Novel Universal Ensemble Capability for Overset Grids, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Intelligent Light makers of the FieldView CFD/CAE Post-processing tool, proposes to develop NUE (pronounced noo-ae) - a Novel and Universal capability that manages...

  16. Ensemble data assimilation in the Red Sea: sensitivity to ensemble selection and atmospheric forcing

    KAUST Repository

    Toye, Habib; Zhan, Peng; Gopalakrishnan, Ganesh; Kartadikaria, Aditya R.; Huang, Huang; Knio, Omar; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2017-01-01

    We present our efforts to build an ensemble data assimilation and forecasting system for the Red Sea. The system consists of the high-resolution Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) to simulate ocean circulation

  17. Robust Ensemble Filtering and Its Relation to Covariance Inflation in the Ensemble Kalman Filter

    KAUST Repository

    Luo, Xiaodong; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2011-01-01

    A robust ensemble filtering scheme based on the H∞ filtering theory is proposed. The optimal H∞ filter is derived by minimizing the supremum (or maximum) of a predefined cost function, a criterion different from the minimum variance used

  18. Avelumab for metastatic or locally advanced previously treated solid tumours (JAVELIN Solid Tumor): a phase 1a, multicohort, dose-escalation trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heery, Christopher R; O'Sullivan-Coyne, Geraldine; Madan, Ravi A; Cordes, Lisa; Rajan, Arun; Rauckhorst, Myrna; Lamping, Elizabeth; Oyelakin, Israel; Marté, Jennifer L; Lepone, Lauren M; Donahue, Renee N; Grenga, Italia; Cuillerot, Jean-Marie; Neuteboom, Berend; Heydebreck, Anja von; Chin, Kevin; Schlom, Jeffrey; Gulley, James L

    2017-05-01

    Avelumab (MSB0010718C) is a human IgG1 monoclonal antibody that binds to PD-L1, inhibiting its binding to PD-1, which inactivates T cells. We aimed to establish the safety and pharmacokinetics of avelumab in patients with solid tumours while assessing biological correlatives for future development. This open-label, single-centre, phase 1a, dose-escalation trial (part of the JAVELIN Solid Tumor trial) assessed four doses of avelumab (1 mg/kg, 3 mg/kg, 10 mg/kg, and 20 mg/kg), with dose-level cohort expansions to provide additional safety, pharmacokinetics, and target occupancy data. This study used a standard 3 + 3 cohort design and assigned patients sequentially at trial entry according to the 3 + 3 dose-escalation algorithm and depending on the number of dose-limiting toxicities during the first 3-week assessment period (the primary endpoint). Patient eligibility criteria included age 18 years or older, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status 0-1, metastatic or locally advanced previously treated solid tumours, and adequate end-organ function. Avelumab was given as a 1-h intravenous infusion every 2 weeks. Patients in the dose-limiting toxicity analysis set were assessed for the primary endpoint of dose-limiting toxicity, and all patients enrolled in the dose-escalation part were assessed for the secondary endpoints of safety (treatment-emergent and treatment-related adverse events according to National Cancer Institute Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events version 4.0), pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic profiles (immunological effects), best overall response by Response Evaluation Criteria, and antidrug antibody formation. The population for the pharmacokinetic analysis included a subset of patients with rich pharmacokinetic samples from two selected disease-specific expansion cohorts at the same study site who had serum samples obtained at multiple early timepoints. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT

  19. Selepressin, a novel selective vasopressin V1A agonist, is an effective substitute for norepinephrine in a phase IIa randomized, placebo-controlled trial in septic shock patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Russell, James A; Vincent, Jean-Louis; Kjølbye, Anne Louise

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Vasopressin is widely used for vasopressor support in septic shock patients, but experimental evidence suggests that selective V1A agonists are superior. The initial pharmacodynamic effects, pharmacokinetics, and safety of selepressin, a novel V1A-selective vasopressin analogue, was e...

  20. Quantum canonical ensemble: A projection operator approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magnus, Wim; Lemmens, Lucien; Brosens, Fons

    2017-09-01

    Knowing the exact number of particles N, and taking this knowledge into account, the quantum canonical ensemble imposes a constraint on the occupation number operators. The constraint particularly hampers the systematic calculation of the partition function and any relevant thermodynamic expectation value for arbitrary but fixed N. On the other hand, fixing only the average number of particles, one may remove the above constraint and simply factorize the traces in Fock space into traces over single-particle states. As is well known, that would be the strategy of the grand-canonical ensemble which, however, comes with an additional Lagrange multiplier to impose the average number of particles. The appearance of this multiplier can be avoided by invoking a projection operator that enables a constraint-free computation of the partition function and its derived quantities in the canonical ensemble, at the price of an angular or contour integration. Introduced in the recent past to handle various issues related to particle-number projected statistics, the projection operator approach proves beneficial to a wide variety of problems in condensed matter physics for which the canonical ensemble offers a natural and appropriate environment. In this light, we present a systematic treatment of the canonical ensemble that embeds the projection operator into the formalism of second quantization while explicitly fixing N, the very number of particles rather than the average. Being applicable to both bosonic and fermionic systems in arbitrary dimensions, transparent integral representations are provided for the partition function ZN and the Helmholtz free energy FN as well as for two- and four-point correlation functions. The chemical potential is not a Lagrange multiplier regulating the average particle number but can be extracted from FN+1 -FN, as illustrated for a two-dimensional fermion gas.

  1. The classicality and quantumness of a quantum ensemble

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu Xuanmin; Pang Shengshi; Wu Shengjun; Liu Quanhui

    2011-01-01

    In this Letter, we investigate the classicality and quantumness of a quantum ensemble. We define a quantity called ensemble classicality based on classical cloning strategy (ECCC) to characterize how classical a quantum ensemble is. An ensemble of commuting states has a unit ECCC, while a general ensemble can have a ECCC less than 1. We also study how quantum an ensemble is by defining a related quantity called quantumness. We find that the classicality of an ensemble is closely related to how perfectly the ensemble can be cloned, and that the quantumness of the ensemble used in a quantum key distribution (QKD) protocol is exactly the attainable lower bound of the error rate in the sifted key. - Highlights: → A quantity is defined to characterize how classical a quantum ensemble is. → The classicality of an ensemble is closely related to the cloning performance. → Another quantity is also defined to investigate how quantum an ensemble is. → This quantity gives the lower bound of the error rate in a QKD protocol.

  2. Exploring and Listening to Chinese Classical Ensembles in General Music

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wenzhuo

    2017-01-01

    Music diversity is valued in theory, but the extent to which it is efficiently presented in music class remains limited. Within this article, I aim to bridge this gap by introducing four genres of Chinese classical ensembles--Qin and Xiao duets, Jiang Nan bamboo and silk ensembles, Cantonese ensembles, and contemporary Chinese orchestras--into the…

  3. Critical Listening in the Ensemble Rehearsal: A Community of Learners

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Cindy L.

    2018-01-01

    This article explores a strategy for engaging ensemble members in critical listening analysis of performances and presents opportunities for improving ensemble sound through rigorous dialogue, reflection, and attentive rehearsing. Critical listening asks ensemble members to draw on individual playing experience and knowledge to describe what they…

  4. SCOPE1: a randomised phase II/III multicentre clinical trial of definitive chemoradiation, with or without cetuximab, in carcinoma of the oesophagus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hurt, Christopher N; Nixon, Lisette S; Griffiths, Gareth O; Al-Mokhtar, Ruby; Gollins, Simon; Staffurth, John N; Phillips, Ceri J; Blazeby, Jane M; Crosby, Tom D

    2011-01-01

    Chemoradiotherapy is the standard of care for patients with oesophageal cancer unsuitable for surgery due to the presence of co-morbidity or extent of disease, and is a standard treatment option for patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the oesophagus. Modern regimens of chemoradiotherapy can lead to significant long-term survival. However the majority of patients will die of their disease, most commonly with local progression/recurrence of their tumours. Cetuximab may overcome one of the principal mechanisms of tumour radio-resistance, namely tumour repopulation, in patients treated with chemoradiotherapy. The purpose of this research is first to determine whether the addition of cetuximab to definitive chemoradiotherapy for treatment of patients with non-metastatic carcinoma of the oesophagus is active (in terms of failure-free rate), safe, and feasible within the context of a multi-centre randomised controlled trial in the UK. If the first stage is successful then the trial will continue to accrue sufficient patients to establish whether the addition of cetuximab to the standard treatment improves overall survival. SCOPE1 is a two arm, open, randomised multicentre Phase II/III trial. Eligible patients will have histologically confirmed carcinoma of the oesophagus and have been chosen to receive definitive chemoradiotherapy by an accredited multidisciplinary team including a specialist Upper GI surgeon. 420 patients will be randomised to receive definitive chemoradiotherapy with or without cetuximab using a 1:1 allocation ratio. During Phase II of the study, the trial will assess safety (toxicity), activity (failure-free rate) and feasibility (recruitment rate and protocol dose modifications/delays) in 90 patients in the experimental arm. If the experimental arm is found to be active, safe, and feasible by the Independent Data Monitoring Committee then recruitment will continue into Phase III. This second stage will recruit a further 120 patients into each arm

  5. SCOPE1: a randomised phase II/III multicentre clinical trial of definitive chemoradiation, with or without cetuximab, in carcinoma of the oesophagus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Staffurth John N

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Chemoradiotherapy is the standard of care for patients with oesophageal cancer unsuitable for surgery due to the presence of co-morbidity or extent of disease, and is a standard treatment option for patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the oesophagus. Modern regimens of chemoradiotherapy can lead to significant long-term survival. However the majority of patients will die of their disease, most commonly with local progression/recurrence of their tumours. Cetuximab may overcome one of the principal mechanisms of tumour radio-resistance, namely tumour repopulation, in patients treated with chemoradiotherapy. The purpose of this research is first to determine whether the addition of cetuximab to definitive chemoradiotherapy for treatment of patients with non-metastatic carcinoma of the oesophagus is active (in terms of failure-free rate, safe, and feasible within the context of a multi-centre randomised controlled trial in the UK. If the first stage is successful then the trial will continue to accrue sufficient patients to establish whether the addition of cetuximab to the standard treatment improves overall survival. Methods/Design SCOPE1 is a two arm, open, randomised multicentre Phase II/III trial. Eligible patients will have histologically confirmed carcinoma of the oesophagus and have been chosen to receive definitive chemoradiotherapy by an accredited multidisciplinary team including a specialist Upper GI surgeon. 420 patients will be randomised to receive definitive chemoradiotherapy with or without cetuximab using a 1:1 allocation ratio. During Phase II of the study, the trial will assess safety (toxicity, activity (failure-free rate and feasibility (recruitment rate and protocol dose modifications/delays in 90 patients in the experimental arm. If the experimental arm is found to be active, safe, and feasible by the Independent Data Monitoring Committee then recruitment will continue into Phase III. This second

  6. A stochastic phase-field model determined from molecular dynamics

    KAUST Repository

    von Schwerin, Erik; Szepessy, Anders

    2010-01-01

    The dynamics of dendritic growth of a crystal in an undercooled melt is determined by macroscopic diffusion-convection of heat and by capillary forces acting on the nanometer scale of the solid-liquid interface width. Its modelling is useful for instance in processing techniques based on casting. The phase-field method is widely used to study evolution of such microstructural phase transformations on a continuum level; it couples the energy equation to a phenomenological Allen-Cahn/Ginzburg-Landau equation modelling the dynamics of an order parameter determining the solid and liquid phases, including also stochastic fluctuations to obtain the qualitatively correct result of dendritic side branching. This work presents a method to determine stochastic phase-field models from atomistic formulations by coarse-graining molecular dynamics. It has three steps: (1) a precise quantitative atomistic definition of the phase-field variable, based on the local potential energy; (2) derivation of its coarse-grained dynamics model, from microscopic Smoluchowski molecular dynamics (that is Brownian or over damped Langevin dynamics); and (3) numerical computation of the coarse-grained model functions. The coarse-grained model approximates Gibbs ensemble averages of the atomistic phase-field, by choosing coarse-grained drift and diffusion functions that minimize the approximation error of observables in this ensemble average. © EDP Sciences, SMAI, 2010.

  7. A stochastic phase-field model determined from molecular dynamics

    KAUST Repository

    von Schwerin, Erik

    2010-03-17

    The dynamics of dendritic growth of a crystal in an undercooled melt is determined by macroscopic diffusion-convection of heat and by capillary forces acting on the nanometer scale of the solid-liquid interface width. Its modelling is useful for instance in processing techniques based on casting. The phase-field method is widely used to study evolution of such microstructural phase transformations on a continuum level; it couples the energy equation to a phenomenological Allen-Cahn/Ginzburg-Landau equation modelling the dynamics of an order parameter determining the solid and liquid phases, including also stochastic fluctuations to obtain the qualitatively correct result of dendritic side branching. This work presents a method to determine stochastic phase-field models from atomistic formulations by coarse-graining molecular dynamics. It has three steps: (1) a precise quantitative atomistic definition of the phase-field variable, based on the local potential energy; (2) derivation of its coarse-grained dynamics model, from microscopic Smoluchowski molecular dynamics (that is Brownian or over damped Langevin dynamics); and (3) numerical computation of the coarse-grained model functions. The coarse-grained model approximates Gibbs ensemble averages of the atomistic phase-field, by choosing coarse-grained drift and diffusion functions that minimize the approximation error of observables in this ensemble average. © EDP Sciences, SMAI, 2010.

  8. Improving Climate Projections Using "Intelligent" Ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Noel C.; Taylor, Patrick C.

    2015-01-01

    Recent changes in the climate system have led to growing concern, especially in communities which are highly vulnerable to resource shortages and weather extremes. There is an urgent need for better climate information to develop solutions and strategies for adapting to a changing climate. Climate models provide excellent tools for studying the current state of climate and making future projections. However, these models are subject to biases created by structural uncertainties. Performance metrics-or the systematic determination of model biases-succinctly quantify aspects of climate model behavior. Efforts to standardize climate model experiments and collect simulation data-such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)-provide the means to directly compare and assess model performance. Performance metrics have been used to show that some models reproduce present-day climate better than others. Simulation data from multiple models are often used to add value to projections by creating a consensus projection from the model ensemble, in which each model is given an equal weight. It has been shown that the ensemble mean generally outperforms any single model. It is possible to use unequal weights to produce ensemble means, in which models are weighted based on performance (called "intelligent" ensembles). Can performance metrics be used to improve climate projections? Previous work introduced a framework for comparing the utility of model performance metrics, showing that the best metrics are related to the variance of top-of-atmosphere outgoing longwave radiation. These metrics improve present-day climate simulations of Earth's energy budget using the "intelligent" ensemble method. The current project identifies several approaches for testing whether performance metrics can be applied to future simulations to create "intelligent" ensemble-mean climate projections. It is shown that certain performance metrics test key climate processes in the models, and

  9. Dynamics of multi-frequency oscillator ensembles with resonant coupling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lueck, S.; Pikovsky, A.

    2011-01-01

    We study dynamics of populations of resonantly coupled oscillators having different frequencies. Starting from the coupled van der Pol equations we derive the Kuramoto-type phase model for the situation, where the natural frequencies of two interacting subpopulations are in relation 2:1. Depending on the parameter of coupling, ensembles can demonstrate fully synchronous clusters, partial synchrony (only one subpopulation synchronizes), or asynchrony in both subpopulations. Theoretical description of the dynamics based on the Watanabe-Strogatz approach is developed. -- Highlights: → Kuramoto model is generalized on the case of resonantly interacting oscillators having frequency ratio 2:1. → Regimes of full and partial synchrony, as well as non-synchronous ones are reported. → Analytical description is developed on the basis of the Watanabe-Strogatz approach.

  10. Dynamics of multi-frequency oscillator ensembles with resonant coupling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lueck, S. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Potsdam University, Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24-25, 14476 Potsdam (Germany); Pikovsky, A., E-mail: pikovsky@stat.physik.uni-potsdam.de [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Potsdam University, Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24-25, 14476 Potsdam (Germany)

    2011-07-11

    We study dynamics of populations of resonantly coupled oscillators having different frequencies. Starting from the coupled van der Pol equations we derive the Kuramoto-type phase model for the situation, where the natural frequencies of two interacting subpopulations are in relation 2:1. Depending on the parameter of coupling, ensembles can demonstrate fully synchronous clusters, partial synchrony (only one subpopulation synchronizes), or asynchrony in both subpopulations. Theoretical description of the dynamics based on the Watanabe-Strogatz approach is developed. -- Highlights: → Kuramoto model is generalized on the case of resonantly interacting oscillators having frequency ratio 2:1. → Regimes of full and partial synchrony, as well as non-synchronous ones are reported. → Analytical description is developed on the basis of the Watanabe-Strogatz approach.

  11. Ramsey interferometry of Rydberg ensembles inside microwave cavities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sommer, Christian; Genes, Claudiu

    2018-06-01

    We study ensembles of Rydberg atoms in a confined electromagnetic environment such as is provided by a microwave cavity. The competition between standard free space Ising type and cavity-mediated interactions leads to the emergence of different regimes where the particle‑particle couplings range from the typical van der Waals r ‑6 behavior to r ‑3 and to r-independence. We apply a Ramsey spectroscopic technique to map the two-body interactions into a characteristic signal such as intensity and contrast decay curves. As opposed to previous treatments requiring high-densities for considerable contrast and phase decay (Takei et al 2016 Nat. Comms. 7 13449; Sommer et al 2016 Phys. Rev. A 94 053607), the cavity scenario can exhibit similar behavior at much lower densities.

  12. Phasing and structure of bestrophin-1: a case study in the use of heavy-atom cluster compounds with multi-subunit transmembrane proteins

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dickson, Veronica Kane (Cambridge)

    2016-03-01

    The purification and three-dimensional crystallization of membrane proteins are commonly affected by a cumulation of pathologies that are less prevalent in their soluble counterparts. This may include severe anisotropy, poor spot shape, poor to moderate-resolution diffraction, crystal twinning, translational pseudo-symmetry and poor uptake of heavy atoms for derivatization. Such challenges must be circumvented by adaptations in the approach to crystallization and/or phasing. Here, an example of a protein that exhibited all of the above-mentioned complications is presented. Bestrophin-1 is a eukaryotic calcium-activated chloride channel, the structure of which was recently determined in complex with monoclonal antibody fragments using SAD phasing with tantalum bromide clusters (Ta6Br12·Br2). Some of the obstacles to obtaining improved diffraction and phasing for this particular channel are discussed, as well as the approach and adaptations that were key to determining the structure.

  13. Demonstrating the value of larger ensembles in forecasting physical systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reason L. Machete

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Ensemble simulation propagates a collection of initial states forward in time in a Monte Carlo fashion. Depending on the fidelity of the model and the properties of the initial ensemble, the goal of ensemble simulation can range from merely quantifying variations in the sensitivity of the model all the way to providing actionable probability forecasts of the future. Whatever the goal is, success depends on the properties of the ensemble, and there is a longstanding discussion in meteorology as to the size of initial condition ensemble most appropriate for Numerical Weather Prediction. In terms of resource allocation: how is one to divide finite computing resources between model complexity, ensemble size, data assimilation and other components of the forecast system. One wishes to avoid undersampling information available from the model's dynamics, yet one also wishes to use the highest fidelity model available. Arguably, a higher fidelity model can better exploit a larger ensemble; nevertheless it is often suggested that a relatively small ensemble, say ~16 members, is sufficient and that larger ensembles are not an effective investment of resources. This claim is shown to be dubious when the goal is probabilistic forecasting, even in settings where the forecast model is informative but imperfect. Probability forecasts for a ‘simple’ physical system are evaluated at different lead times; ensembles of up to 256 members are considered. The pure density estimation context (where ensemble members are drawn from the same underlying distribution as the target differs from the forecasting context, where one is given a high fidelity (but imperfect model. In the forecasting context, the information provided by additional members depends also on the fidelity of the model, the ensemble formation scheme (data assimilation, the ensemble interpretation and the nature of the observational noise. The effect of increasing the ensemble size is quantified by

  14. Data assimilation in integrated hydrological modeling using ensemble Kalman filtering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jørn; Madsen, H.; Jensen, Karsten Høgh

    2015-01-01

    Groundwater head and stream discharge is assimilated using the ensemble transform Kalman filter in an integrated hydrological model with the aim of studying the relationship between the filter performance and the ensemble size. In an attempt to reduce the required number of ensemble members...... and estimating parameters requires a much larger ensemble size than just assimilating groundwater head observations. However, the required ensemble size can be greatly reduced with the use of adaptive localization, which by far outperforms distance-based localization. The study is conducted using synthetic data...

  15. The hippocampal CA2 ensemble is sensitive to contextual change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wintzer, Marie E; Boehringer, Roman; Polygalov, Denis; McHugh, Thomas J

    2014-02-19

    Contextual learning involves associating cues with an environment and relating them to past experience. Previous data indicate functional specialization within the hippocampal circuit: the dentate gyrus (DG) is crucial for discriminating similar contexts, whereas CA3 is required for associative encoding and recall. Here, we used Arc/H1a catFISH imaging to address the contribution of the largely overlooked CA2 region to contextual learning by comparing ensemble codes across CA3, CA2, and CA1 in mice exposed to familiar, altered, and novel contexts. Further, to manipulate the quality of information arriving in CA2 we used two hippocampal mutant mouse lines, CA3-NR1 KOs and DG-NR1 KOs, that result in hippocampal CA3 neuronal activity that is uncoupled from the animal's sensory environment. Our data reveal largely coherent responses across the CA axis in control mice in purely novel or familiar contexts; however, in the mutant mice subject to these protocols the CA2 response becomes uncoupled from CA1 and CA3. Moreover, we show in wild-type mice that the CA2 ensemble is more sensitive than CA1 and CA3 to small changes in overall context. Our data suggest that CA2 may be tuned to remap in response to any conflict between stored and current experience.

  16. Statistical ensembles for money and debt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viaggiu, Stefano; Lionetto, Andrea; Bargigli, Leonardo; Longo, Michele

    2012-10-01

    We build a statistical ensemble representation of two economic models describing respectively, in simplified terms, a payment system and a credit market. To this purpose we adopt the Boltzmann-Gibbs distribution where the role of the Hamiltonian is taken by the total money supply (i.e. including money created from debt) of a set of interacting economic agents. As a result, we can read the main thermodynamic quantities in terms of monetary ones. In particular, we define for the credit market model a work term which is related to the impact of monetary policy on credit creation. Furthermore, with our formalism we recover and extend some results concerning the temperature of an economic system, previously presented in the literature by considering only the monetary base as a conserved quantity. Finally, we study the statistical ensemble for the Pareto distribution.

  17. Quark ensembles with the infinite correlation length

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zinov'ev, G. M.; Molodtsov, S. V.

    2015-01-01

    A number of exactly integrable (quark) models of quantum field theory with the infinite correlation length have been considered. It has been shown that the standard vacuum quark ensemble—Dirac sea (in the case of the space-time dimension higher than three)—is unstable because of the strong degeneracy of a state, which is due to the character of the energy distribution. When the momentum cutoff parameter tends to infinity, the distribution becomes infinitely narrow, leading to large (unlimited) fluctuations. Various vacuum ensembles—Dirac sea, neutral ensemble, color superconductor, and BCS state—have been compared. In the case of the color interaction between quarks, the BCS state has been certainly chosen as the ground state of the quark ensemble.

  18. Quark ensembles with the infinite correlation length

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zinov’ev, G. M.; Molodtsov, S. V.

    2015-01-01

    A number of exactly integrable (quark) models of quantum field theory with the infinite correlation length have been considered. It has been shown that the standard vacuum quark ensemble—Dirac sea (in the case of the space-time dimension higher than three)—is unstable because of the strong degeneracy of a state, which is due to the character of the energy distribution. When the momentum cutoff parameter tends to infinity, the distribution becomes infinitely narrow, leading to large (unlimited) fluctuations. Various vacuum ensembles—Dirac sea, neutral ensemble, color superconductor, and BCS state—have been compared. In the case of the color interaction between quarks, the BCS state has been certainly chosen as the ground state of the quark ensemble

  19. Quark ensembles with the infinite correlation length

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zinov’ev, G. M. [National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Bogoliubov Institute for Theoretical Physics (Ukraine); Molodtsov, S. V., E-mail: molodtsov@itep.ru [Joint Institute for Nuclear Research (Russian Federation)

    2015-01-15

    A number of exactly integrable (quark) models of quantum field theory with the infinite correlation length have been considered. It has been shown that the standard vacuum quark ensemble—Dirac sea (in the case of the space-time dimension higher than three)—is unstable because of the strong degeneracy of a state, which is due to the character of the energy distribution. When the momentum cutoff parameter tends to infinity, the distribution becomes infinitely narrow, leading to large (unlimited) fluctuations. Various vacuum ensembles—Dirac sea, neutral ensemble, color superconductor, and BCS state—have been compared. In the case of the color interaction between quarks, the BCS state has been certainly chosen as the ground state of the quark ensemble.

  20. Various multistage ensembles for prediction of heating energy consumption

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radisa Jovanovic

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Feedforward neural network models are created for prediction of daily heating energy consumption of a NTNU university campus Gloshaugen using actual measured data for training and testing. Improvement of prediction accuracy is proposed by using neural network ensemble. Previously trained feed-forward neural networks are first separated into clusters, using k-means algorithm, and then the best network of each cluster is chosen as member of an ensemble. Two conventional averaging methods for obtaining ensemble output are applied; simple and weighted. In order to achieve better prediction results, multistage ensemble is investigated. As second level, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system with various clustering and membership functions are used to aggregate the selected ensemble members. Feedforward neural network in second stage is also analyzed. It is shown that using ensemble of neural networks can predict heating energy consumption with better accuracy than the best trained single neural network, while the best results are achieved with multistage ensemble.

  1. Online Learning of Commission Avoidant Portfolio Ensembles

    OpenAIRE

    Uziel, Guy; El-Yaniv, Ran

    2016-01-01

    We present a novel online ensemble learning strategy for portfolio selection. The new strategy controls and exploits any set of commission-oblivious portfolio selection algorithms. The strategy handles transaction costs using a novel commission avoidance mechanism. We prove a logarithmic regret bound for our strategy with respect to optimal mixtures of the base algorithms. Numerical examples validate the viability of our method and show significant improvement over the state-of-the-art.

  2. Modeling Coordination Problems in a Music Ensemble

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frimodt-Møller, Søren R.

    2008-01-01

    This paper considers in general terms, how musicians are able to coordinate through rational choices in a situation of (temporary) doubt in an ensemble performance. A fictitious example involving a 5-bar development in an unknown piece of music is analyzed in terms of epistemic logic, more...... to coordinate. Such coordination can be described in terms of Michael Bacharach's theory of variable frames as an aid to solve game theoretic coordination problems....

  3. Microcanonical ensemble formulation of lattice gauge theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Callaway, D.J.E.; Rahman, A.

    1982-01-01

    A new formulation of lattice gauge theory without explicit path integrals or sums is obtained by using the microcanonical ensemble of statistical mechanics. Expectation values in the new formalism are calculated by solving a large set of coupled, nonlinear, ordinary differential equations. The average plaquette for compact electrodynamics calculated in this fashion agrees with standard Monte Carlo results. Possible advantages of the microcanonical method in applications to fermionic systems are discussed

  4. Ensemble forecasts of road surface temperatures

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sokol, Zbyněk; Bližňák, Vojtěch; Sedlák, Pavel; Zacharov, Petr, jr.; Pešice, Petr; Škuthan, M.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 187, 1 May (2017), s. 33-41 ISSN 0169-8095 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-34856S; GA TA ČR(CZ) TA01031509 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : ensemble prediction * road surface temperature * road weather forecast Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OBOR OECD: Meteorology and atmospheric sciences Impact factor: 3.778, year: 2016 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809516307311

  5. Microcanonical ensemble extensive thermodynamics of Tsallis statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parvan, A.S.

    2005-01-01

    The microscopic foundation of the generalized equilibrium statistical mechanics based on the Tsallis entropy is given by using the Gibbs idea of statistical ensembles of the classical and quantum mechanics.The equilibrium distribution functions are derived by the thermodynamic method based upon the use of the fundamental equation of thermodynamics and the statistical definition of the functions of the state of the system. It is shown that if the entropic index ξ = 1/q - 1 in the microcanonical ensemble is an extensive variable of the state of the system, then in the thermodynamic limit z bar = 1/(q - 1)N = const the principle of additivity and the zero law of thermodynamics are satisfied. In particular, the Tsallis entropy of the system is extensive and the temperature is intensive. Thus, the Tsallis statistics completely satisfies all the postulates of the equilibrium thermodynamics. Moreover, evaluation of the thermodynamic identities in the microcanonical ensemble is provided by the Euler theorem. The principle of additivity and the Euler theorem are explicitly proved by using the illustration of the classical microcanonical ideal gas in the thermodynamic limit

  6. Modeling polydispersive ensembles of diamond nanoparticles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnard, Amanda S

    2013-01-01

    While significant progress has been made toward production of monodispersed samples of a variety of nanoparticles, in cases such as diamond nanoparticles (nanodiamonds) a significant degree of polydispersivity persists, so scaling-up of laboratory applications to industrial levels has its challenges. In many cases, however, monodispersivity is not essential for reliable application, provided that the inevitable uncertainties are just as predictable as the functional properties. As computational methods of materials design are becoming more widespread, there is a growing need for robust methods for modeling ensembles of nanoparticles, that capture the structural complexity characteristic of real specimens. In this paper we present a simple statistical approach to modeling of ensembles of nanoparticles, and apply it to nanodiamond, based on sets of individual simulations that have been carefully selected to describe specific structural sources that are responsible for scattering of fundamental properties, and that are typically difficult to eliminate experimentally. For the purposes of demonstration we show how scattering in the Fermi energy and the electronic band gap are related to different structural variations (sources), and how these results can be combined strategically to yield statistically significant predictions of the properties of an entire ensemble of nanodiamonds, rather than merely one individual ‘model’ particle or a non-representative sub-set. (paper)

  7. Ensemble Clustering using Semidefinite Programming with Applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Vikas; Mukherjee, Lopamudra; Peng, Jiming; Xu, Jinhui

    2010-05-01

    In this paper, we study the ensemble clustering problem, where the input is in the form of multiple clustering solutions. The goal of ensemble clustering algorithms is to aggregate the solutions into one solution that maximizes the agreement in the input ensemble. We obtain several new results for this problem. Specifically, we show that the notion of agreement under such circumstances can be better captured using a 2D string encoding rather than a voting strategy, which is common among existing approaches. Our optimization proceeds by first constructing a non-linear objective function which is then transformed into a 0-1 Semidefinite program (SDP) using novel convexification techniques. This model can be subsequently relaxed to a polynomial time solvable SDP. In addition to the theoretical contributions, our experimental results on standard machine learning and synthetic datasets show that this approach leads to improvements not only in terms of the proposed agreement measure but also the existing agreement measures based on voting strategies. In addition, we identify several new application scenarios for this problem. These include combining multiple image segmentations and generating tissue maps from multiple-channel Diffusion Tensor brain images to identify the underlying structure of the brain.

  8. Multivariate localization methods for ensemble Kalman filtering

    KAUST Repository

    Roh, S.

    2015-12-03

    In ensemble Kalman filtering (EnKF), the small number of ensemble members that is feasible to use in a practical data assimilation application leads to sampling variability of the estimates of the background error covariances. The standard approach to reducing the effects of this sampling variability, which has also been found to be highly efficient in improving the performance of EnKF, is the localization of the estimates of the covariances. One family of localization techniques is based on taking the Schur (element-wise) product of the ensemble-based sample covariance matrix and a correlation matrix whose entries are obtained by the discretization of a distance-dependent correlation function. While the proper definition of the localization function for a single state variable has been extensively investigated, a rigorous definition of the localization function for multiple state variables that exist at the same locations has been seldom considered. This paper introduces two strategies for the construction of localization functions for multiple state variables. The proposed localization functions are tested by assimilating simulated observations experiments into the bivariate Lorenz 95 model with their help.

  9. Decimated Input Ensembles for Improved Generalization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tumer, Kagan; Oza, Nikunj C.; Norvig, Peter (Technical Monitor)

    1999-01-01

    Recently, many researchers have demonstrated that using classifier ensembles (e.g., averaging the outputs of multiple classifiers before reaching a classification decision) leads to improved performance for many difficult generalization problems. However, in many domains there are serious impediments to such "turnkey" classification accuracy improvements. Most notable among these is the deleterious effect of highly correlated classifiers on the ensemble performance. One particular solution to this problem is generating "new" training sets by sampling the original one. However, with finite number of patterns, this causes a reduction in the training patterns each classifier sees, often resulting in considerably worsened generalization performance (particularly for high dimensional data domains) for each individual classifier. Generally, this drop in the accuracy of the individual classifier performance more than offsets any potential gains due to combining, unless diversity among classifiers is actively promoted. In this work, we introduce a method that: (1) reduces the correlation among the classifiers; (2) reduces the dimensionality of the data, thus lessening the impact of the 'curse of dimensionality'; and (3) improves the classification performance of the ensemble.

  10. Multivariate localization methods for ensemble Kalman filtering

    KAUST Repository

    Roh, S.

    2015-05-08

    In ensemble Kalman filtering (EnKF), the small number of ensemble members that is feasible to use in a practical data assimilation application leads to sampling variability of the estimates of the background error covariances. The standard approach to reducing the effects of this sampling variability, which has also been found to be highly efficient in improving the performance of EnKF, is the localization of the estimates of the covariances. One family of localization techniques is based on taking the Schur (entry-wise) product of the ensemble-based sample covariance matrix and a correlation matrix whose entries are obtained by the discretization of a distance-dependent correlation function. While the proper definition of the localization function for a single state variable has been extensively investigated, a rigorous definition of the localization function for multiple state variables has been seldom considered. This paper introduces two strategies for the construction of localization functions for multiple state variables. The proposed localization functions are tested by assimilating simulated observations experiments into the bivariate Lorenz 95 model with their help.

  11. Multivariate localization methods for ensemble Kalman filtering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roh, S.; Jun, M.; Szunyogh, I.; Genton, M. G.

    2015-12-01

    In ensemble Kalman filtering (EnKF), the small number of ensemble members that is feasible to use in a practical data assimilation application leads to sampling variability of the estimates of the background error covariances. The standard approach to reducing the effects of this sampling variability, which has also been found to be highly efficient in improving the performance of EnKF, is the localization of the estimates of the covariances. One family of localization techniques is based on taking the Schur (element-wise) product of the ensemble-based sample covariance matrix and a correlation matrix whose entries are obtained by the discretization of a distance-dependent correlation function. While the proper definition of the localization function for a single state variable has been extensively investigated, a rigorous definition of the localization function for multiple state variables that exist at the same locations has been seldom considered. This paper introduces two strategies for the construction of localization functions for multiple state variables. The proposed localization functions are tested by assimilating simulated observations experiments into the bivariate Lorenz 95 model with their help.

  12. Multivariate localization methods for ensemble Kalman filtering

    KAUST Repository

    Roh, S.; Jun, M.; Szunyogh, I.; Genton, Marc G.

    2015-01-01

    In ensemble Kalman filtering (EnKF), the small number of ensemble members that is feasible to use in a practical data assimilation application leads to sampling variability of the estimates of the background error covariances. The standard approach to reducing the effects of this sampling variability, which has also been found to be highly efficient in improving the performance of EnKF, is the localization of the estimates of the covariances. One family of localization techniques is based on taking the Schur (entry-wise) product of the ensemble-based sample covariance matrix and a correlation matrix whose entries are obtained by the discretization of a distance-dependent correlation function. While the proper definition of the localization function for a single state variable has been extensively investigated, a rigorous definition of the localization function for multiple state variables has been seldom considered. This paper introduces two strategies for the construction of localization functions for multiple state variables. The proposed localization functions are tested by assimilating simulated observations experiments into the bivariate Lorenz 95 model with their help.

  13. Microcanonical ensemble extensive thermodynamics of Tsallis statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parvan, A.S.

    2006-01-01

    The microscopic foundation of the generalized equilibrium statistical mechanics based on the Tsallis entropy is given by using the Gibbs idea of statistical ensembles of the classical and quantum mechanics. The equilibrium distribution functions are derived by the thermodynamic method based upon the use of the fundamental equation of thermodynamics and the statistical definition of the functions of the state of the system. It is shown that if the entropic index ξ=1/(q-1) in the microcanonical ensemble is an extensive variable of the state of the system, then in the thermodynamic limit z-bar =1/(q-1)N=const the principle of additivity and the zero law of thermodynamics are satisfied. In particular, the Tsallis entropy of the system is extensive and the temperature is intensive. Thus, the Tsallis statistics completely satisfies all the postulates of the equilibrium thermodynamics. Moreover, evaluation of the thermodynamic identities in the microcanonical ensemble is provided by the Euler theorem. The principle of additivity and the Euler theorem are explicitly proved by using the illustration of the classical microcanonical ideal gas in the thermodynamic limit

  14. EnsembleGraph: Interactive Visual Analysis of Spatial-Temporal Behavior for Ensemble Simulation Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shu, Qingya; Guo, Hanqi; Che, Limei; Yuan, Xiaoru; Liu, Junfeng; Liang, Jie

    2016-04-19

    We present a novel visualization framework—EnsembleGraph— for analyzing ensemble simulation data, in order to help scientists understand behavior similarities between ensemble members over space and time. A graph-based representation is used to visualize individual spatiotemporal regions with similar behaviors, which are extracted by hierarchical clustering algorithms. A user interface with multiple-linked views is provided, which enables users to explore, locate, and compare regions that have similar behaviors between and then users can investigate and analyze the selected regions in detail. The driving application of this paper is the studies on regional emission influences over tropospheric ozone, which is based on ensemble simulations conducted with different anthropogenic emission absences using the MOZART-4 (model of ozone and related tracers, version 4) model. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method by visualizing the MOZART-4 ensemble simulation data and evaluating the relative regional emission influences on tropospheric ozone concentrations. Positive feedbacks from domain experts and two case studies prove efficiency of our method.

  15. LGM permafrost distribution: how well can the latest PMIP multi-model ensembles perform reconstruction?

    OpenAIRE

    Saito, K.; Sueyoshi, T.; Marchenko, S.; Romanovsky, V.; Otto-Bliesner, B.; Walsh, J.; Bigelow, N.; Hendricks, A.; Yoshikawa, K.

    2013-01-01

    Here, global-scale frozen ground distribution from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) has been reconstructed using multi-model ensembles of global climate models, and then compared with evidence-based knowledge and earlier numerical results. Modeled soil temperatures, taken from Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase III (PMIP3) simulations, were used to diagnose the subsurface thermal regime and determine underlying frozen ground types for the present day (pre-industrial; 0 kya) an...

  16. LGM permafrost distribution: how well can the latest PMIP multi-model ensembles reconstruct?

    OpenAIRE

    K. Saito; T. Sueyoshi; S. Marchenko; V. Romanovsky; B. Otto-Bliesner; J. Walsh; N. Bigelow; A. Hendricks; K. Yoshikawa

    2013-01-01

    Global-scale frozen ground distribution during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was reconstructed using multi-model ensembles of global climate models, and then compared with evidence-based knowledge and earlier numerical results. Modeled soil temperatures, taken from Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase III (PMIP3) simulations, were used to diagnose the subsurface thermal regime and determine underlying frozen ground types for the present-day (pre-industrial; 0 k) and the LGM (...

  17. Monthly ENSO Forecast Skill and Lagged Ensemble Size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trenary, L.; DelSole, T.; Tippett, M. K.; Pegion, K.

    2018-04-01

    The mean square error (MSE) of a lagged ensemble of monthly forecasts of the Niño 3.4 index from the Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) is examined with respect to ensemble size and configuration. Although the real-time forecast is initialized 4 times per day, it is possible to infer the MSE for arbitrary initialization frequency and for burst ensembles by fitting error covariances to a parametric model and then extrapolating to arbitrary ensemble size and initialization frequency. Applying this method to real-time forecasts, we find that the MSE consistently reaches a minimum for a lagged ensemble size between one and eight days, when four initializations per day are included. This ensemble size is consistent with the 8-10 day lagged ensemble configuration used operationally. Interestingly, the skill of both ensemble configurations is close to the estimated skill of the infinite ensemble. The skill of the weighted, lagged, and burst ensembles are found to be comparable. Certain unphysical features of the estimated error growth were tracked down to problems with the climatology and data discontinuities.

  18. Taylor-expansion Monte Carlo simulations of classical fluids in the canonical and grand canonical ensemble

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schoen, M.

    1995-01-01

    In this article the Taylor-expansion method is introduced by which Monte Carlo (MC) simulations in the canonical ensemble can be speeded up significantly, Substantial gains in computational speed of 20-40% over conventional implementations of the MC technique are obtained over a wide range of densities in homogeneous bulk phases. The basic philosophy behind the Taylor-expansion method is a division of the neighborhood of each atom (or molecule) into three different spatial zones. Interactions between atoms belonging to each zone are treated at different levels of computational sophistication. For example, only interactions between atoms belonging to the primary zone immediately surrounding an atom are treated explicitly before and after displacement. The change in the configurational energy contribution from secondary-zone interactions is obtained from the first-order term of a Taylor expansion of the configurational energy in terms of the displacement vector d. Interactions with atoms in the tertiary zone adjacent to the secondary zone are neglected throughout. The Taylor-expansion method is not restricted to the canonical ensemble but may be employed to enhance computational efficiency of MC simulations in other ensembles as well. This is demonstrated for grand canonical ensemble MC simulations of an inhomogeneous fluid which can be performed essentially on a modern personal computer

  19. 78 FR 56921 - South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project, Phase 2 (Ponds R3, R4, R5, S5, A1, A2W, A8, A8S, A19...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-16

    ...-F2013227943] South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project, Phase 2 (Ponds R3, R4, R5, S5, A1, A2W, A8, A8S, A19... South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project and consists of restoring and enhancing over 2,000 acres of... Pollution Control Plant located at 700 Los Esteros Road, San Jose, California. The details of the public...

  20. Generation of scenarios from calibrated ensemble forecasts with a dual ensemble copula coupling approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ben Bouallègue, Zied; Heppelmann, Tobias; Theis, Susanne E.

    2016-01-01

    the original ensemble forecasts. Based on the assumption of error stationarity, parametric methods aim to fully describe the forecast dependence structures. In this study, the concept of ECC is combined with past data statistics in order to account for the autocorrelation of the forecast error. The new...... approach, called d-ECC, is applied to wind forecasts from the high resolution ensemble system COSMO-DE-EPS run operationally at the German weather service. Scenarios generated by ECC and d-ECC are compared and assessed in the form of time series by means of multivariate verification tools and in a product...

  1. DART: New Research Using Ensemble Data Assimilation in Geophysical Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoar, T. J.; Raeder, K.

    2015-12-01

    The Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) is a community facilityfor ensemble data assimilation developed and supported by the NationalCenter for Atmospheric Research. DART provides a comprehensive suite of software, documentation, and tutorials that can be used for ensemble data assimilation research, operations, and education. Scientists and software engineers at NCAR are available to support DART users who want to use existing DART products or develop their own applications. Current DART users range from university professors teaching data assimilation, to individual graduate students working with simple models, through national laboratories doing operational prediction with large state-of-the-art models. DART runs efficiently on many computational platforms ranging from laptops through thousands of cores on the newest supercomputers.This poster focuses on several recent research activities using DART with geophysical models.Using CAM/DART to understand whether OCO-2 Total Precipitable Water observations can be useful in numerical weather prediction.Impacts of the synergistic use of Infra-red CO retrievals (MOPITT, IASI) in CAM-CHEM/DART assimilations.Assimilation and Analysis of Observations of Amazonian Biomass Burning Emissions by MOPITT (aerosol optical depth), MODIS (carbon monoxide) and MISR (plume height).Long term evaluation of the chemical response of MOPITT-CO assimilation in CAM-CHEM/DART OSSEs for satellite planning and emission inversion capabilities.Improved forward observation operators for land models that have multiple land use/land cover segments in a single grid cell,Simulating mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) using a variable resolution, unstructured grid in the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) and DART.The mesoscale WRF+DART system generated an ensemble of year-long, real-time initializations of a convection allowing model over the United States.Constraining WACCM with observations in the tropical band (30S-30N) using DART

  2. Methods for the elicitation and use of expert opinion in risk assessment: Phase 1, A critical evaluation and directions for future research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mosleh, A.; Bier, V.M.; Apostolakis, G.

    1987-08-01

    The purpose of this work is to critically review and evaluate the elicitation and use of expert opinion in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in light of the available empirical and theoretical results on expert opinion use. PRA practice is represented by five case studies selected to represent a variety of aspects of the problem: assessments of component failure rates and maintenance data; recent assessments of seismic hazard rates; assessments of containment phenomenology; assessments of human error rates; and accident precursor studies. The review has yielded mixed results. On the negative side, there appears to be little reliance on normative expertise in structuring the process of expert opinion elicitation and use; most applications instead rely primarily on the common sense of the experts involved in the analysis, which is not always an adequate guide. On the positive side, however, there is evidence that expert opinions can in fact be used well in practical settings. Suggestions are given for Phase II work to enhance the applicability and use of appropriate expert opinion methods

  3. ASSIMILATION OF COARSE-SCALEDATAUSINGTHE ENSEMBLE KALMAN FILTER

    KAUST Repository

    Efendiev, Yalchin

    2011-01-01

    Reservoir data is usually scale dependent and exhibits multiscale features. In this paper we use the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to integrate data at different spatial scales for estimating reservoir fine-scale characteristics. Relationships between the various scales is modeled via upscaling techniques. We propose two versions of the EnKF to assimilate the multiscale data, (i) where all the data are assimilated together and (ii) the data are assimilated sequentially in batches. Ensemble members obtained after assimilating one set of data are used as a prior to assimilate the next set of data. Both of these versions are easily implementable with any other upscaling which links the fine to the coarse scales. The numerical results with different methods are presented in a twin experiment setup using a two-dimensional, two-phase (oil and water) flow model. Results are shown with coarse-scale permeability and coarse-scale saturation data. They indicate that additional data provides better fine-scale estimates and fractional flow predictions. We observed that the two versions of the EnKF differed in their estimates when coarse-scale permeability is provided, whereas their results are similar when coarse-scale saturation is used. This behavior is thought to be due to the nonlinearity of the upscaling operator in the case of the former data. We also tested our procedures with various precisions of the coarse-scale data to account for the inexact relationship between the fine and coarse scale data. As expected, the results show that higher precision in the coarse-scale data yielded improved estimates. With better coarse-scale modeling and inversion techniques as more data at multiple coarse scales is made available, the proposed modification to the EnKF could be relevant in future studies.

  4. Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation in Reservoir Characterization: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seungpil Jung

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a review of ensemble-based data assimilation for strongly nonlinear problems on the characterization of heterogeneous reservoirs with different production histories. It concentrates on ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF and ensemble smoother (ES as representative frameworks, discusses their pros and cons, and investigates recent progress to overcome their drawbacks. The typical weaknesses of ensemble-based methods are non-Gaussian parameters, improper prior ensembles and finite population size. Three categorized approaches, to mitigate these limitations, are reviewed with recent accomplishments; improvement of Kalman gains, add-on of transformation functions, and independent evaluation of observed data. The data assimilation in heterogeneous reservoirs, applying the improved ensemble methods, is discussed on predicting unknown dynamic data in reservoir characterization.

  5. Supersymmetry applied to the spectrum edge of random matrix ensembles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andreev, A.V.; Simons, B.D.; Taniguchi, N.

    1994-01-01

    A new matrix ensemble has recently been proposed to describe the transport properties in mesoscopic quantum wires. Both analytical and numerical studies have shown that the ensemble of Laguerre or of chiral random matrices provides a good description of scattering properties in this class of systems. Until now only conventional methods of random matrix theory have been used to study statistical properties within this ensemble. We demonstrate that the supersymmetry method, already employed in the study Dyson ensembles, can be extended to treat this class of random matrix ensembles. In developing this approach we investigate both new, as well as verify known statistical measures. Although we focus on ensembles in which T-invariance is violated our approach lays the foundation for future studies of T-invariant systems. ((orig.))

  6. Bioactive focus in conformational ensembles: a pluralistic approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habgood, Matthew

    2017-12-01

    Computational generation of conformational ensembles is key to contemporary drug design. Selecting the members of the ensemble that will approximate the conformation most likely to bind to a desired target (the bioactive conformation) is difficult, given that the potential energy usually used to generate and rank the ensemble is a notoriously poor discriminator between bioactive and non-bioactive conformations. In this study an approach to generating a focused ensemble is proposed in which each conformation is assigned multiple rankings based not just on potential energy but also on solvation energy, hydrophobic or hydrophilic interaction energy, radius of gyration, and on a statistical potential derived from Cambridge Structural Database data. The best ranked structures derived from each system are then assembled into a new ensemble that is shown to be better focused on bioactive conformations. This pluralistic approach is tested on ensembles generated by the Molecular Operating Environment's Low Mode Molecular Dynamics module, and by the Cambridge Crystallographic Data Centre's conformation generator software.

  7. Treatment of advanced gastrointestinal cancer with genetically modified autologous mesenchymal stem cells - TREAT-ME-1 - a phase I, first in human, first in class trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Einem, Jobst C; Peter, Sylvia; Günther, Christine; Volk, Hans-Dieter; Grütz, Gerald; Salat, Christoph; Stoetzer, Oliver; Nelson, Peter J; Michl, Marlies; Modest, Dominik P; Holch, Julian W; Angele, Martin; Bruns, Christiane; Niess, Hanno; Heinemann, Volker

    2017-10-06

    This phase I, first in human, first in class clinical study aimed at evaluating the safety, tolerability and efficacy of treatment with genetically modified mesenchymal stromal cells (MSC) in combination with ganciclovir (GCV). MSC_apceth_101 are genetically modified autologous MSCs used as vehicles for a cell-based gene therapy in patients with advanced gastrointestinal adenocarcinoma. The study design consisted of a dose-escalation 3 + 3 design. All patients ( n = 6) were treated with up to three applications of MSC_apceth_101, followed by GCV infusions given on three consecutive days starting 48 hours after injection of MSC_apceth_101. Three of six patients received a total dose of 1.5 × 10 6 cells/kg. Two patients received three doses of 1 × 10 6 cells/kg, while one patient received only two doses of 1 × 10 6 cells/kg due to a SADR. Six patients received MSC_apceth_101. No IMP-related serious adverse events occurred. Adverse-events related to IMP-injection were increased creatinine, cough, fever, and night sweat. TNF, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10 and sE-Selectin, showed that repeated application is immunologically safe, but induces a switch of the functional properties of monocytes to an inflammatory phenotype. Treatment induced stable disease in 4/6 patients, and progressive disease in 2/6 patients. Treatment with MSC_apceth_101 in combination with GCV demonstrated acceptable safety and tolerability in patients with advanced gastrointestinal adenocarcinoma.

  8. Identification of characteristics and frequent scenarios of single-vehicle rollover crashes during pre-ballistic phase; part 1 - A descriptive study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Taewung; Bose, Dipan; Foster, Jon; Bollapragada, Varun; Crandall, Jeff R; Clauser, Mark; Kerrigan, Jason R

    2017-10-01

    This study aimed to identify common patterns of pre-ballistic vehicle kinematics and roadway characteristics of real-world rollover crashes. Rollover crashes that were enrolled in the National Automotive Sampling System-Crashworthiness Data System (NASS-CDS) between the years 2000 and 2010 were analyzed. A descriptive analysis was performed to understand the characteristics of the pre-ballistic phase. Also, a frequency based pattern analysis was performed using a selection of NASS-CDS variables describing the pre-ballistic vehicle kinematics and roadway characteristics to rank common pathways of rollover crashes. Most case vehicles departed the road due to a loss of control/traction (LOC) (61%). The road departure with LOC was found to be 13.4 times more likely to occur with slippery road conditions compared to dry conditions. The vehicle was typically laterally skidding with yawing prior to a rollover (66%). Most case vehicles tripped over (82%) mostly at roadside/median (69%). The tripping force was applied to the wheels/tires (82%) from the ground (79%). The combination of these six most frequent attributes resulted in the most common scenario, which accounted for 26% of the entire cases. Large proportion of road departure with LOC (61%) implies electronic stability control (ESC) systems being an effective countermeasure for preventing single-vehicle rollover crashes. Furthermore, the correlation between the road departure with LOC and the reduced friction limit suggests the necessity of the performance evaluation of ESC under compromised road surface condition. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. RESPIRE 1: a phase III placebo-controlled randomised trial of ciprofloxacin dry powder for inhalation in non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Soyza, Anthony; Aksamit, Timothy; Bandel, Tiemo-Joerg; Criollo, Margarita; Elborn, J Stuart; Operschall, Elisabeth; Polverino, Eva; Roth, Katrin; Winthrop, Kevin L; Wilson, Robert

    2018-01-01

    We evaluated the efficacy and safety of ciprofloxacin dry powder for inhalation (DPI) in patients with non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis, two or more exacerbations in the previous year and pre-defined bacteria in sputum.In this phase III, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, patients were randomised 2:1 to twice-daily ciprofloxacin DPI 32.5 mg or placebo in two treatment regimens consisting of on/off treatment cycles of 14 or 28 days for 48 weeks. The primary end-points were time to first exacerbation and frequency of exacerbations.A total of 416 patients were randomised to the 14-day on/off regimen (ciprofloxacin DPI (n=137) and placebo (n=68)) or the 28-day on/off regimen (ciprofloxacin DPI (n=141) and placebo (n=70)). Ciprofloxacin DPI 14 days on/off significantly prolonged time to first exacerbation versus pooled placebo (median time >336 versus 186 days; hazard ratio 0.53, 97.5% CI 0.36-0.80; p=0.0005) and reduced the frequency of exacerbations compared with matching placebo by 39% (mean number of exacerbations 0.6 versus 1.0; incidence rate ratio 0.61, 97.5% CI 0.40-0.91; p=0.0061). Outcomes for ciprofloxacin DPI 28 days on/off were not statistically significantly different from placebo. The safety profile of ciprofloxacin DPI was favourable.Ciprofloxacin DPI was well tolerated and has the potential to be an effective treatment option in non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis. Copyright ©ERS 2018.

  10. A Lagrangian formalism for nonequilibrium ensembles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sobouti, Y.

    1989-08-01

    It is suggested to formulate a nonequilibrium ensemble theory by maximizing a time-integrated entropy constrained by Liouville's equation. This leads to distribution functions of the form f = Z -1 exp(-g/kT), where g(p,q,t) is a solution of Liouville's equation. A further requirement that the entropy should be an additivie functional of the integrals of Liouville's equation, limits the choice of g to linear superpositions of the nonlinearly independent integrals of motion. Time-dependent and time-independent integrals may participate in this superposition. (author). 14 refs

  11. Extension of the GHJW theorem for operator ensembles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Jeong Woon; Hong, Dowon; Chang, Ku-Young; Chi, Dong Pyo; Lee, Soojoon

    2011-01-01

    The Gisin-Hughston-Jozsa-Wootters theorem plays an important role in analyzing various theories about quantum information, quantum communication, and quantum cryptography. It means that any purifications on the extended system which yield indistinguishable state ensembles on their subsystem should have a specific local unitary relation. In this Letter, we show that the local relation is also established even when the indistinguishability of state ensembles is extended to that of operator ensembles.

  12. Gridded Calibration of Ensemble Wind Vector Forecasts Using Ensemble Model Output Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazarus, S. M.; Holman, B. P.; Splitt, M. E.

    2017-12-01

    A computationally efficient method is developed that performs gridded post processing of ensemble wind vector forecasts. An expansive set of idealized WRF model simulations are generated to provide physically consistent high resolution winds over a coastal domain characterized by an intricate land / water mask. Ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) is used to calibrate the ensemble wind vector forecasts at observation locations. The local EMOS predictive parameters (mean and variance) are then spread throughout the grid utilizing flow-dependent statistical relationships extracted from the downscaled WRF winds. Using data withdrawal and 28 east central Florida stations, the method is applied to one year of 24 h wind forecasts from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). Compared to the raw GEFS, the approach improves both the deterministic and probabilistic forecast skill. Analysis of multivariate rank histograms indicate the post processed forecasts are calibrated. Two downscaling case studies are presented, a quiescent easterly flow event and a frontal passage. Strengths and weaknesses of the approach are presented and discussed.

  13. Sequential ensemble-based optimal design for parameter estimation: SEQUENTIAL ENSEMBLE-BASED OPTIMAL DESIGN

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Man, Jun [Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Agricultural Resources and Environment, Institute of Soil and Water Resources and Environmental Science, College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou China; Zhang, Jiangjiang [Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Agricultural Resources and Environment, Institute of Soil and Water Resources and Environmental Science, College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou China; Li, Weixuan [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Zeng, Lingzao [Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Agricultural Resources and Environment, Institute of Soil and Water Resources and Environmental Science, College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou China; Wu, Laosheng [Department of Environmental Sciences, University of California, Riverside California USA

    2016-10-01

    The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has been widely used in parameter estimation for hydrological models. The focus of most previous studies was to develop more efficient analysis (estimation) algorithms. On the other hand, it is intuitively understandable that a well-designed sampling (data-collection) strategy should provide more informative measurements and subsequently improve the parameter estimation. In this work, a Sequential Ensemble-based Optimal Design (SEOD) method, coupled with EnKF, information theory and sequential optimal design, is proposed to improve the performance of parameter estimation. Based on the first-order and second-order statistics, different information metrics including the Shannon entropy difference (SD), degrees of freedom for signal (DFS) and relative entropy (RE) are used to design the optimal sampling strategy, respectively. The effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated by synthetic one-dimensional and two-dimensional unsaturated flow case studies. It is shown that the designed sampling strategies can provide more accurate parameter estimation and state prediction compared with conventional sampling strategies. Optimal sampling designs based on various information metrics perform similarly in our cases. The effect of ensemble size on the optimal design is also investigated. Overall, larger ensemble size improves the parameter estimation and convergence of optimal sampling strategy. Although the proposed method is applied to unsaturated flow problems in this study, it can be equally applied in any other hydrological problems.

  14. Convergence of the Square Root Ensemble Kalman Filter in the Large Ensemble Limit

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kwiatkowski, E.; Mandel, Jan

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 3, č. 1 (2015), s. 1-17 ISSN 2166-2525 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-34856S Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : data assimilation * Lp laws of large numbers * Hilbert space * ensemble Kalman filter Subject RIV: IN - Informatics, Computer Science

  15. New technique for ensemble dressing combining Multimodel SuperEnsemble and precipitation PDF

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cane, D.; Milelli, M.

    2009-09-01

    The Multimodel SuperEnsemble technique (Krishnamurti et al., Science 285, 1548-1550, 1999) is a postprocessing method for the estimation of weather forecast parameters reducing direct model output errors. It differs from other ensemble analysis techniques by the use of an adequate weighting of the input forecast models to obtain a combined estimation of meteorological parameters. Weights are calculated by least-square minimization of the difference between the model and the observed field during a so-called training period. Although it can be applied successfully on the continuous parameters like temperature, humidity, wind speed and mean sea level pressure (Cane and Milelli, Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 15, 2, 2006), the Multimodel SuperEnsemble gives good results also when applied on the precipitation, a parameter quite difficult to handle with standard post-processing methods. Here we present our methodology for the Multimodel precipitation forecasts applied on a wide spectrum of results over Piemonte very dense non-GTS weather station network. We will focus particularly on an accurate statistical method for bias correction and on the ensemble dressing in agreement with the observed precipitation forecast-conditioned PDF. Acknowledgement: this work is supported by the Italian Civil Defence Department.

  16. Ensemble-based forecasting at Horns Rev: Ensemble conversion and kernel dressing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre; Madsen, Henrik

    . The obtained ensemble forecasts of wind power are then converted into predictive distributions with an original adaptive kernel dressing method. The shape of the kernels is driven by a mean-variance model, the parameters of which are recursively estimated in order to maximize the overall skill of obtained...

  17. Encoding of Spatial Attention by Primate Prefrontal Cortex Neuronal Ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Treue, Stefan

    2018-01-01

    Abstract Single neurons in the primate lateral prefrontal cortex (LPFC) encode information about the allocation of visual attention and the features of visual stimuli. However, how this compares to the performance of neuronal ensembles at encoding the same information is poorly understood. Here, we recorded the responses of neuronal ensembles in the LPFC of two macaque monkeys while they performed a task that required attending to one of two moving random dot patterns positioned in different hemifields and ignoring the other pattern. We found single units selective for the location of the attended stimulus as well as for its motion direction. To determine the coding of both variables in the population of recorded units, we used a linear classifier and progressively built neuronal ensembles by iteratively adding units according to their individual performance (best single units), or by iteratively adding units based on their contribution to the ensemble performance (best ensemble). For both methods, ensembles of relatively small sizes (n decoding performance relative to individual single units. However, the decoder reached similar performance using fewer neurons with the best ensemble building method compared with the best single units method. Our results indicate that neuronal ensembles within the LPFC encode more information about the attended spatial and nonspatial features of visual stimuli than individual neurons. They further suggest that efficient coding of attention can be achieved by relatively small neuronal ensembles characterized by a certain relationship between signal and noise correlation structures. PMID:29568798

  18. Bayesian ensemble refinement by replica simulations and reweighting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hummer, Gerhard; Köfinger, Jürgen

    2015-12-01

    We describe different Bayesian ensemble refinement methods, examine their interrelation, and discuss their practical application. With ensemble refinement, the properties of dynamic and partially disordered (bio)molecular structures can be characterized by integrating a wide range of experimental data, including measurements of ensemble-averaged observables. We start from a Bayesian formulation in which the posterior is a functional that ranks different configuration space distributions. By maximizing this posterior, we derive an optimal Bayesian ensemble distribution. For discrete configurations, this optimal distribution is identical to that obtained by the maximum entropy "ensemble refinement of SAXS" (EROS) formulation. Bayesian replica ensemble refinement enhances the sampling of relevant configurations by imposing restraints on averages of observables in coupled replica molecular dynamics simulations. We show that the strength of the restraints should scale linearly with the number of replicas to ensure convergence to the optimal Bayesian result in the limit of infinitely many replicas. In the "Bayesian inference of ensembles" method, we combine the replica and EROS approaches to accelerate the convergence. An adaptive algorithm can be used to sample directly from the optimal ensemble, without replicas. We discuss the incorporation of single-molecule measurements and dynamic observables such as relaxation parameters. The theoretical analysis of different Bayesian ensemble refinement approaches provides a basis for practical applications and a starting point for further investigations.

  19. Design ensemble machine learning model for breast cancer diagnosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsieh, Sheau-Ling; Hsieh, Sung-Huai; Cheng, Po-Hsun; Chen, Chi-Huang; Hsu, Kai-Ping; Lee, I-Shun; Wang, Zhenyu; Lai, Feipei

    2012-10-01

    In this paper, we classify the breast cancer of medical diagnostic data. Information gain has been adapted for feature selections. Neural fuzzy (NF), k-nearest neighbor (KNN), quadratic classifier (QC), each single model scheme as well as their associated, ensemble ones have been developed for classifications. In addition, a combined ensemble model with these three schemes has been constructed for further validations. The experimental results indicate that the ensemble learning performs better than individual single ones. Moreover, the combined ensemble model illustrates the highest accuracy of classifications for the breast cancer among all models.

  20. Ensemble atmospheric dispersion calculations for decision support systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borysiewicz, M.; Potempski, S.; Galkowski, A.; Zelazny, R.

    2003-01-01

    This document describes two approaches to long-range atmospheric dispersion of pollutants based on the ensemble concept. In the first part of the report some experiences related to the exercises undertaken under the ENSEMBLE project of the European Union are presented. The second part is devoted to the implementation of mesoscale numerical prediction models RAMS and atmospheric dispersion model HYPACT on Beowulf cluster and theirs usage for ensemble forecasting and long range atmospheric ensemble dispersion calculations based on available meteorological data from NCEO, NOAA (USA). (author)

  1. DroidEnsemble: Detecting Android Malicious Applications with Ensemble of String and Structural Static Features

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Wei

    2018-05-11

    Android platform has dominated the Operating System of mobile devices. However, the dramatic increase of Android malicious applications (malapps) has caused serious software failures to Android system and posed a great threat to users. The effective detection of Android malapps has thus become an emerging yet crucial issue. Characterizing the behaviors of Android applications (apps) is essential to detecting malapps. Most existing work on detecting Android malapps was mainly based on string static features such as permissions and API usage extracted from apps. There also exists work on the detection of Android malapps with structural features, such as Control Flow Graph (CFG) and Data Flow Graph (DFG). As Android malapps have become increasingly polymorphic and sophisticated, using only one type of static features may result in false negatives. In this work, we propose DroidEnsemble that takes advantages of both string features and structural features to systematically and comprehensively characterize the static behaviors of Android apps and thus build a more accurate detection model for the detection of Android malapps. We extract each app’s string features, including permissions, hardware features, filter intents, restricted API calls, used permissions, code patterns, as well as structural features like function call graph. We then use three machine learning algorithms, namely, Support Vector Machine (SVM), k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN) and Random Forest (RF), to evaluate the performance of these two types of features and of their ensemble. In the experiments, We evaluate our methods and models with 1386 benign apps and 1296 malapps. Extensive experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of DroidEnsemble. It achieves the detection accuracy as 95.8% with only string features and as 90.68% with only structural features. DroidEnsemble reaches the detection accuracy as 98.4% with the ensemble of both types of features, reducing 9 false positives and 12 false

  2. Cluster Ensemble-Based Image Segmentation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoru Wang

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Image segmentation is the foundation of computer vision applications. In this paper, we propose a new cluster ensemble-based image segmentation algorithm, which overcomes several problems of traditional methods. We make two main contributions in this paper. First, we introduce the cluster ensemble concept to fuse the segmentation results from different types of visual features effectively, which can deliver a better final result and achieve a much more stable performance for broad categories of images. Second, we exploit the PageRank idea from Internet applications and apply it to the image segmentation task. This can improve the final segmentation results by combining the spatial information of the image and the semantic similarity of regions. Our experiments on four public image databases validate the superiority of our algorithm over conventional single type of feature or multiple types of features-based algorithms, since our algorithm can fuse multiple types of features effectively for better segmentation results. Moreover, our method is also proved to be very competitive in comparison with other state-of-the-art segmentation algorithms.

  3. Nanobiosensing with Arrays and Ensembles of Nanoelectrodes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Najmeh Karimian

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Since the first reports dating back to the mid-1990s, ensembles and arrays of nanoelectrodes (NEEs and NEAs, respectively have gained an important role as advanced electroanalytical tools thank to their unique characteristics which include, among others, dramatically improved signal/noise ratios, enhanced mass transport and suitability for extreme miniaturization. From the year 2000 onward, these properties have been exploited to develop electrochemical biosensors in which the surfaces of NEEs/NEAs have been functionalized with biorecognition layers using immobilization modes able to take the maximum advantage from the special morphology and composite nature of their surface. This paper presents an updated overview of this field. It consists of two parts. In the first, we discuss nanofabrication methods and the principles of functioning of NEEs/NEAs, focusing, in particular, on those features which are important for the development of highly sensitive and miniaturized biosensors. In the second part, we review literature references dealing the bioanalytical and biosensing applications of sensors based on biofunctionalized arrays/ensembles of nanoelectrodes, focusing our attention on the most recent advances, published in the last five years. The goal of this review is both to furnish fundamental knowledge to researchers starting their activity in this field and provide critical information on recent achievements which can stimulate new ideas for future developments to experienced scientists.

  4. Ensemble Kalman filtering with residual nudging

    KAUST Repository

    Luo, X.

    2012-10-03

    Covariance inflation and localisation are two important techniques that are used to improve the performance of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) by (in effect) adjusting the sample covariances of the estimates in the state space. In this work, an additional auxiliary technique, called residual nudging, is proposed to monitor and, if necessary, adjust the residual norms of state estimates in the observation space. In an EnKF with residual nudging, if the residual norm of an analysis is larger than a pre-specified value, then the analysis is replaced by a new one whose residual norm is no larger than a pre-specified value. Otherwise, the analysis is considered as a reasonable estimate and no change is made. A rule for choosing the pre-specified value is suggested. Based on this rule, the corresponding new state estimates are explicitly derived in case of linear observations. Numerical experiments in the 40-dimensional Lorenz 96 model show that introducing residual nudging to an EnKF may improve its accuracy and/or enhance its stability against filter divergence, especially in the small ensemble scenario.

  5. Deterministic Mean-Field Ensemble Kalman Filtering

    KAUST Repository

    Law, Kody

    2016-05-03

    The proof of convergence of the standard ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) from Le Gland, Monbet, and Tran [Large sample asymptotics for the ensemble Kalman filter, in The Oxford Handbook of Nonlinear Filtering, Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK, 2011, pp. 598--631] is extended to non-Gaussian state-space models. A density-based deterministic approximation of the mean-field limit EnKF (DMFEnKF) is proposed, consisting of a PDE solver and a quadrature rule. Given a certain minimal order of convergence k between the two, this extends to the deterministic filter approximation, which is therefore asymptotically superior to standard EnKF for dimension d<2k. The fidelity of approximation of the true distribution is also established using an extension of the total variation metric to random measures. This is limited by a Gaussian bias term arising from nonlinearity/non-Gaussianity of the model, which arises in both deterministic and standard EnKF. Numerical results support and extend the theory.

  6. Online cross-validation-based ensemble learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benkeser, David; Ju, Cheng; Lendle, Sam; van der Laan, Mark

    2018-01-30

    Online estimators update a current estimate with a new incoming batch of data without having to revisit past data thereby providing streaming estimates that are scalable to big data. We develop flexible, ensemble-based online estimators of an infinite-dimensional target parameter, such as a regression function, in the setting where data are generated sequentially by a common conditional data distribution given summary measures of the past. This setting encompasses a wide range of time-series models and, as special case, models for independent and identically distributed data. Our estimator considers a large library of candidate online estimators and uses online cross-validation to identify the algorithm with the best performance. We show that by basing estimates on the cross-validation-selected algorithm, we are asymptotically guaranteed to perform as well as the true, unknown best-performing algorithm. We provide extensions of this approach including online estimation of the optimal ensemble of candidate online estimators. We illustrate excellent performance of our methods using simulations and a real data example where we make streaming predictions of infectious disease incidence using data from a large database. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  7. Performance Analysis of Local Ensemble Kalman Filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Xin T.

    2018-03-01

    Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is an important data assimilation method for high-dimensional geophysical systems. Efficient implementation of EnKF in practice often involves the localization technique, which updates each component using only information within a local radius. This paper rigorously analyzes the local EnKF (LEnKF) for linear systems and shows that the filter error can be dominated by the ensemble covariance, as long as (1) the sample size exceeds the logarithmic of state dimension and a constant that depends only on the local radius; (2) the forecast covariance matrix admits a stable localized structure. In particular, this indicates that with small system and observation noises, the filter error will be accurate in long time even if the initialization is not. The analysis also reveals an intrinsic inconsistency caused by the localization technique, and a stable localized structure is necessary to control this inconsistency. While this structure is usually taken for granted for the operation of LEnKF, it can also be rigorously proved for linear systems with sparse local observations and weak local interactions. These theoretical results are also validated by numerical implementation of LEnKF on a simple stochastic turbulence in two dynamical regimes.

  8. Ensemble Kalman filtering with residual nudging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaodong Luo

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Covariance inflation and localisation are two important techniques that are used to improve the performance of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF by (in effect adjusting the sample covariances of the estimates in the state space. In this work, an additional auxiliary technique, called residual nudging, is proposed to monitor and, if necessary, adjust the residual norms of state estimates in the observation space. In an EnKF with residual nudging, if the residual norm of an analysis is larger than a pre-specified value, then the analysis is replaced by a new one whose residual norm is no larger than a pre-specified value. Otherwise, the analysis is considered as a reasonable estimate and no change is made. A rule for choosing the pre-specified value is suggested. Based on this rule, the corresponding new state estimates are explicitly derived in case of linear observations. Numerical experiments in the 40-dimensional Lorenz 96 model show that introducing residual nudging to an EnKF may improve its accuracy and/or enhance its stability against filter divergence, especially in the small ensemble scenario.

  9. Deterministic Mean-Field Ensemble Kalman Filtering

    KAUST Repository

    Law, Kody; Tembine, Hamidou; Tempone, Raul

    2016-01-01

    The proof of convergence of the standard ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) from Le Gland, Monbet, and Tran [Large sample asymptotics for the ensemble Kalman filter, in The Oxford Handbook of Nonlinear Filtering, Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK, 2011, pp. 598--631] is extended to non-Gaussian state-space models. A density-based deterministic approximation of the mean-field limit EnKF (DMFEnKF) is proposed, consisting of a PDE solver and a quadrature rule. Given a certain minimal order of convergence k between the two, this extends to the deterministic filter approximation, which is therefore asymptotically superior to standard EnKF for dimension d<2k. The fidelity of approximation of the true distribution is also established using an extension of the total variation metric to random measures. This is limited by a Gaussian bias term arising from nonlinearity/non-Gaussianity of the model, which arises in both deterministic and standard EnKF. Numerical results support and extend the theory.

  10. Mutagenic activation and detoxification of benzo[a]pyrene in vitro by hepatic cytochrome P450 1A1 and phase II enzymes in three meat-producing animals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darwish, W; Ikenaka, Y; Eldaly, E; Ishizuka, M

    2010-01-01

    The mutagenic activation activity of hepatic microsomes from three meat-producing animals (cattle, deer and horses) was compared with those of rats as a reference species. In the Ames Salmonella typhimurium TA98 assay, the liver microsomes of all examined animals mutagenically activated benzo[a]pyrene, an ideal promutagens, in terms of production of histidine-independent revertant colonies. The microsomes of horses had the highest ability to produce revertant colonies of the examined animals under both low and high substrate concentrations. Inhibition of this mutagenic activity using alpha-naphthoflavone, anti-rat CYP1A1, CYP3A2 and CYP2E1 antibodies suggests that this activity was mainly because of CYP1A1 in these animals as well as in rats. The addition of co-factors for two phase II enzymes, microsomal UDP glucoronosyl transferase and cytosolic glutathione-S-transferase, reduced the production of the revertant colonies in a concentration-dependent manner. Interestingly, horses had the highest reduction rate among the examined animals, suggesting that phase II enzymes play a great role in producing a state of balance between the bioactivation and detoxification of xenobiotics in these meat-producing animals. This report is the first to investigate the mutagenic activation activity of the hepatic microsomes and the role of phase II enzymes against this activity in meat-producing animals. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Comparing pharmacophore models derived from crystallography and NMR ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghanakota, Phani; Carlson, Heather A.

    2017-11-01

    NMR and X-ray crystallography are the two most widely used methods for determining protein structures. Our previous study examining NMR versus X-Ray sources of protein conformations showed improved performance with NMR structures when used in our Multiple Protein Structures (MPS) method for receptor-based pharmacophores (Damm, Carlson, J Am Chem Soc 129:8225-8235, 2007). However, that work was based on a single test case, HIV-1 protease, because of the rich data available for that system. New data for more systems are available now, which calls for further examination of the effect of different sources of protein conformations. The MPS technique was applied to Growth factor receptor bound protein 2 (Grb2), Src SH2 homology domain (Src-SH2), FK506-binding protein 1A (FKBP12), and Peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-γ (PPAR-γ). Pharmacophore models from both crystal and NMR ensembles were able to discriminate between high-affinity, low-affinity, and decoy molecules. As we found in our original study, NMR models showed optimal performance when all elements were used. The crystal models had more pharmacophore elements compared to their NMR counterparts. The crystal-based models exhibited optimum performance only when pharmacophore elements were dropped. This supports our assertion that the higher flexibility in NMR ensembles helps focus the models on the most essential interactions with the protein. Our studies suggest that the "extra" pharmacophore elements seen at the periphery in X-ray models arise as a result of decreased protein flexibility and make very little contribution to model performance.

  12. Generalized ensemble method applied to study systems with strong first order transitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Małolepsza, E.; Kim, J.; Keyes, T.

    2015-09-01

    At strong first-order phase transitions, the entropy versus energy or, at constant pressure, enthalpy, exhibits convex behavior, and the statistical temperature curve correspondingly exhibits an S-loop or back-bending. In the canonical and isothermal-isobaric ensembles, with temperature as the control variable, the probability density functions become bimodal with peaks localized outside of the S-loop region. Inside, states are unstable, and as a result simulation of equilibrium phase coexistence becomes impossible. To overcome this problem, a method was proposed by Kim, Keyes and Straub [1], where optimally designed generalized ensemble sampling was combined with replica exchange, and denoted generalized replica exchange method (gREM). This new technique uses parametrized effective sampling weights that lead to a unimodal energy distribution, transforming unstable states into stable ones. In the present study, the gREM, originally developed as a Monte Carlo algorithm, was implemented to work with molecular dynamics in an isobaric ensemble and coded into LAMMPS, a highly optimized open source molecular simulation package. The method is illustrated in a study of the very strong solid/liquid transition in water.

  13. Critical point of Nf=3 QCD from lattice simulations in the canonical ensemble

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Anyi; Alexandru, Andrei; Liu, Keh-Fei

    2011-01-01

    A canonical ensemble algorithm is employed to study the phase diagram of N f =3 QCD using lattice simulations. We lock in the desired quark number sector using an exact Fourier transform of the fermion determinant. We scan the phase space below T c and look for an S-shape structure in the chemical potential, which signals the coexistence phase of a first order phase transition in finite volume. Applying Maxwell construction, we determine the boundaries of the coexistence phase at three temperatures and extrapolate them to locate the critical point. Using an improved gauge action and improved Wilson fermions on lattices with a spatial extent of 1.8 fm and quark masses close to that of the strange, we find the critical point at T E =0.925(5)T c and baryon chemical potential μ B E =2.60(8)T c .

  14. Crossover ensembles of random matrices and skew-orthogonal polynomials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumar, Santosh; Pandey, Akhilesh

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → We study crossover ensembles of Jacobi family of random matrices. → We consider correlations for orthogonal-unitary and symplectic-unitary crossovers. → We use the method of skew-orthogonal polynomials and quaternion determinants. → We prove universality of spectral correlations in crossover ensembles. → We discuss applications to quantum conductance and communication theory problems. - Abstract: In a recent paper (S. Kumar, A. Pandey, Phys. Rev. E, 79, 2009, p. 026211) we considered Jacobi family (including Laguerre and Gaussian cases) of random matrix ensembles and reported exact solutions of crossover problems involving time-reversal symmetry breaking. In the present paper we give details of the work. We start with Dyson's Brownian motion description of random matrix ensembles and obtain universal hierarchic relations among the unfolded correlation functions. For arbitrary dimensions we derive the joint probability density (jpd) of eigenvalues for all transitions leading to unitary ensembles as equilibrium ensembles. We focus on the orthogonal-unitary and symplectic-unitary crossovers and give generic expressions for jpd of eigenvalues, two-point kernels and n-level correlation functions. This involves generalization of the theory of skew-orthogonal polynomials to crossover ensembles. We also consider crossovers in the circular ensembles to show the generality of our method. In the large dimensionality limit, correlations in spectra with arbitrary initial density are shown to be universal when expressed in terms of a rescaled symmetry breaking parameter. Applications of our crossover results to communication theory and quantum conductance problems are also briefly discussed.

  15. A Comparison of Ensemble Kalman Filters for Storm Surge Assimilation

    KAUST Repository

    Altaf, Muhammad

    2014-08-01

    This study evaluates and compares the performances of several variants of the popular ensembleKalman filter for the assimilation of storm surge data with the advanced circulation (ADCIRC) model. Using meteorological data from Hurricane Ike to force the ADCIRC model on a domain including the Gulf ofMexico coastline, the authors implement and compare the standard stochastic ensembleKalman filter (EnKF) and three deterministic square root EnKFs: the singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter, the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF), and the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF). Covariance inflation and localization are implemented in all of these filters. The results from twin experiments suggest that the square root ensemble filters could lead to very comparable performances with appropriate tuning of inflation and localization, suggesting that practical implementation details are at least as important as the choice of the square root ensemble filter itself. These filters also perform reasonably well with a relatively small ensemble size, whereas the stochastic EnKF requires larger ensemble sizes to provide similar accuracy for forecasts of storm surge.

  16. Conductor and Ensemble Performance Expressivity and State Festival Ratings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, Harry E.; Chang, E. Christina

    2005-01-01

    This study is the second in a series examining the relationship between conducting and ensemble performance. The purpose was to further examine the associations among conductor, ensemble performance expressivity, and festival ratings. Participants were asked to rate the expressivity of video-only conducting and parallel audio-only excerpts from a…

  17. An iterative ensemble Kalman filter for reservoir engineering applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krymskaya, M.V.; Hanea, R.G.; Verlaan, M.

    2009-01-01

    The study has been focused on examining the usage and the applicability of ensemble Kalman filtering techniques to the history matching procedures. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is often applied nowadays to solving such a problem. Meanwhile, traditional EnKF requires assumption of the

  18. Competitive Learning Neural Network Ensemble Weighted by Predicted Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Qiang

    2010-01-01

    Ensemble approaches have been shown to enhance classification by combining the outputs from a set of voting classifiers. Diversity in error patterns among base classifiers promotes ensemble performance. Multi-task learning is an important characteristic for Neural Network classifiers. Introducing a secondary output unit that receives different…

  19. A Comparison of Ensemble Kalman Filters for Storm Surge Assimilation

    KAUST Repository

    Altaf, Muhammad; Butler, T.; Mayo, T.; Luo, X.; Dawson, C.; Heemink, A. W.; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2014-01-01

    This study evaluates and compares the performances of several variants of the popular ensembleKalman filter for the assimilation of storm surge data with the advanced circulation (ADCIRC) model. Using meteorological data from Hurricane Ike to force the ADCIRC model on a domain including the Gulf ofMexico coastline, the authors implement and compare the standard stochastic ensembleKalman filter (EnKF) and three deterministic square root EnKFs: the singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter, the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF), and the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF). Covariance inflation and localization are implemented in all of these filters. The results from twin experiments suggest that the square root ensemble filters could lead to very comparable performances with appropriate tuning of inflation and localization, suggesting that practical implementation details are at least as important as the choice of the square root ensemble filter itself. These filters also perform reasonably well with a relatively small ensemble size, whereas the stochastic EnKF requires larger ensemble sizes to provide similar accuracy for forecasts of storm surge.

  20. Ensemble dispersion forecasting - Part 2. Application and evaluation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Galmarini, S.; Bianconi, R.; Addis, R.

    2004-01-01

    of the dispersion of ETEX release 1 and the model ensemble is compared with the monitoring data. The scope of the comparison is to estimate to what extent the ensemble analysis is an improvement with respect to the single model results and represents a superior analysis of the process evolution. (C) 2004 Elsevier...

  1. Adaptive calibration of (u,v)‐wind ensemble forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre

    2012-01-01

    of sufficient reliability. The original framework introduced here allows for an adaptive bivariate calibration of these ensemble forecasts. The originality of this methodology lies in the fact that calibrated ensembles still consist of a set of (space–time) trajectories, after translation and dilation...... of translation and dilation factors are discussed. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society...

  2. Ensemble-based Probabilistic Forecasting at Horns Rev

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre; Madsen, Henrik

    2009-01-01

    forecasting methodology. In a first stage, ensemble forecasts of meteorological variables are converted to power through a suitable power curve model. This modelemploys local polynomial regression, and is adoptively estimated with an orthogonal fitting method. The obtained ensemble forecasts of wind power...

  3. Programming in the Zone: Repertoire Selection for the Large Ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopkins, Michael

    2013-01-01

    One of the great challenges ensemble directors face is selecting high-quality repertoire that matches the musical and technical levels of their ensembles. Thoughtful repertoire selection can lead to increased student motivation as well as greater enthusiasm for the music program from parents, administrators, teachers, and community members. Common…

  4. Probabilistic Determination of Native State Ensembles of Proteins

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsson, Simon; Vögeli, Beat Rolf; Cavalli, Andrea

    2014-01-01

    ensembles of proteins by the combination of physical force fields and experimental data through modern statistical methodology. As an example, we use NMR residual dipolar couplings to determine a native state ensemble of the extensively studied third immunoglobulin binding domain of protein G (GB3...

  5. Preferences of and Attitudes toward Treble Choral Ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Jill M.

    2012-01-01

    In choral ensembles, a pursuit where females far outnumber males, concern exists that females are being devalued. Attitudes of female choral singers may be negatively affected by the gender imbalance that exists in mixed choirs and by the placement of the mixed choir as the most select ensemble in a program. The purpose of this research was to…

  6. Modality-Driven Classification and Visualization of Ensemble Variance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bensema, Kevin; Gosink, Luke; Obermaier, Harald; Joy, Kenneth I.

    2016-10-01

    Advances in computational power now enable domain scientists to address conceptual and parametric uncertainty by running simulations multiple times in order to sufficiently sample the uncertain input space. While this approach helps address conceptual and parametric uncertainties, the ensemble datasets produced by this technique present a special challenge to visualization researchers as the ensemble dataset records a distribution of possible values for each location in the domain. Contemporary visualization approaches that rely solely on summary statistics (e.g., mean and variance) cannot convey the detailed information encoded in ensemble distributions that are paramount to ensemble analysis; summary statistics provide no information about modality classification and modality persistence. To address this problem, we propose a novel technique that classifies high-variance locations based on the modality of the distribution of ensemble predictions. Additionally, we develop a set of confidence metrics to inform the end-user of the quality of fit between the distribution at a given location and its assigned class. We apply a similar method to time-varying ensembles to illustrate the relationship between peak variance and bimodal or multimodal behavior. These classification schemes enable a deeper understanding of the behavior of the ensemble members by distinguishing between distributions that can be described by a single tendency and distributions which reflect divergent trends in the ensemble.

  7. An educational model for ensemble streamflow simulation and uncertainty analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. AghaKouchak

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the hands-on modeling toolbox, HBV-Ensemble, designed as a complement to theoretical hydrology lectures, to teach hydrological processes and their uncertainties. The HBV-Ensemble can be used for in-class lab practices and homework assignments, and assessment of students' understanding of hydrological processes. Using this modeling toolbox, students can gain more insights into how hydrological processes (e.g., precipitation, snowmelt and snow accumulation, soil moisture, evapotranspiration and runoff generation are interconnected. The educational toolbox includes a MATLAB Graphical User Interface (GUI and an ensemble simulation scheme that can be used for teaching uncertainty analysis, parameter estimation, ensemble simulation and model sensitivity. HBV-Ensemble was administered in a class for both in-class instruction and a final project, and students submitted their feedback about the toolbox. The results indicate that this educational software had a positive impact on students understanding and knowledge of uncertainty in hydrological modeling.

  8. Nonlocal inhomogeneous broadening in plasmonic nanoparticle ensembles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tserkezis, Christos; Maack, Johan Rosenkrantz; Liu, Z.

    Nonclassical effects are increasingly more relevant in plasmonics as modern nanofabrication techniques rapidly approach the extreme nanoscale limits, for which departing from classical electrodynamics becomes important. One of the largest-scale necessary corrections towards this direction...... is to abandon the local response approximation (LRA) and take the nonlocal response of the metal into account, typically through the simple hydrodynamic Drude model (HDM), which predicts a sizedependent deviation of plasmon modes from the quasistatic (QS) limit. While this behaviour has been explored for simple...... metallic nanoparticles (NPs) or NP dimers, the possibility of inhomogeneous resonance broadening due to size variation in a large NP collection and the resulting spectral overlap of modes (as depicted in Fig. 1), has been so far overlooked. Here we study theoretically the effect of nonlocality on ensemble...

  9. La crise du vivre-ensemble

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schultz, Nils Voisin

    2014-01-01

    Cet article examine les caractères idéologique et affectif de deux essais écrits respectivement par Alain Finkielkraut et Richard Millet sur la crise actuelle du vivre-ensemble en France. Les deux penseurs critiquent la société multiculturelle, mais alors que pour Finkielkraut cette société est une...... chance pour la France à condition que le dialogue interculturel soit renforcé et que l’idée d’une culture française y garde sa place, elle reste pour Millet une impossibilité. L’enjeu de l’analyse est de dévoiler la capacité des discours à générer par l’affectivité une peur capable d’intensifier l’argumentation...

  10. Dynamic principle for ensemble control tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samoletov, A; Vasiev, B

    2017-11-28

    Dynamical equations describing physical systems in contact with a thermal bath are commonly extended by mathematical tools called "thermostats." These tools are designed for sampling ensembles in statistical mechanics. Here we propose a dynamic principle underlying a range of thermostats which is derived using fundamental laws of statistical physics and ensures invariance of the canonical measure. The principle covers both stochastic and deterministic thermostat schemes. Our method has a clear advantage over a range of proposed and widely used thermostat schemes that are based on formal mathematical reasoning. Following the derivation of the proposed principle, we show its generality and illustrate its applications including design of temperature control tools that differ from the Nosé-Hoover-Langevin scheme.

  11. Global Optimization Ensemble Model for Classification Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anwar, Hina; Qamar, Usman; Muzaffar Qureshi, Abdul Wahab

    2014-01-01

    Supervised learning is the process of data mining for deducing rules from training datasets. A broad array of supervised learning algorithms exists, every one of them with its own advantages and drawbacks. There are some basic issues that affect the accuracy of classifier while solving a supervised learning problem, like bias-variance tradeoff, dimensionality of input space, and noise in the input data space. All these problems affect the accuracy of classifier and are the reason that there is no global optimal method for classification. There is not any generalized improvement method that can increase the accuracy of any classifier while addressing all the problems stated above. This paper proposes a global optimization ensemble model for classification methods (GMC) that can improve the overall accuracy for supervised learning problems. The experimental results on various public datasets showed that the proposed model improved the accuracy of the classification models from 1% to 30% depending upon the algorithm complexity. PMID:24883382

  12. Global Optimization Ensemble Model for Classification Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hina Anwar

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Supervised learning is the process of data mining for deducing rules from training datasets. A broad array of supervised learning algorithms exists, every one of them with its own advantages and drawbacks. There are some basic issues that affect the accuracy of classifier while solving a supervised learning problem, like bias-variance tradeoff, dimensionality of input space, and noise in the input data space. All these problems affect the accuracy of classifier and are the reason that there is no global optimal method for classification. There is not any generalized improvement method that can increase the accuracy of any classifier while addressing all the problems stated above. This paper proposes a global optimization ensemble model for classification methods (GMC that can improve the overall accuracy for supervised learning problems. The experimental results on various public datasets showed that the proposed model improved the accuracy of the classification models from 1% to 30% depending upon the algorithm complexity.

  13. Uncertainty in dispersion forecasts using meteorological ensembles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chin, H N; Leach, M J

    1999-01-01

    The usefulness of dispersion forecasts depends on proper interpretation of results. Understanding the uncertainty in model predictions and the range of possible outcomes is critical for determining the optimal course of action in response to terrorist attacks. One of the objectives for the Modeling and Prediction initiative is creating tools for emergency planning for special events such as the upcoming the Olympics. Meteorological forecasts hours to days in advance are used to estimate the dispersion at the time of the event. However, there is uncertainty in any meteorological forecast, arising from both errors in the data (both initial conditions and boundary conditions) and from errors in the model. We use ensemble forecasts to estimate the uncertainty in the forecasts and the range of possible outcomes

  14. Data assimilation the ensemble Kalman filter

    CERN Document Server

    Evensen, Geir

    2007-01-01

    Data Assimilation comprehensively covers data assimilation and inverse methods, including both traditional state estimation and parameter estimation. This text and reference focuses on various popular data assimilation methods, such as weak and strong constraint variational methods and ensemble filters and smoothers. It is demonstrated how the different methods can be derived from a common theoretical basis, as well as how they differ and/or are related to each other, and which properties characterize them, using several examples. Rather than emphasize a particular discipline such as oceanography or meteorology, it presents the mathematical framework and derivations in a way which is common for any discipline where dynamics is merged with measurements. The mathematics level is modest, although it requires knowledge of basic spatial statistics, Bayesian statistics, and calculus of variations. Readers will also appreciate the introduction to the mathematical methods used and detailed derivations, which should b...

  15. Multicomponent ensemble models to forecast induced seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Király-Proag, E.; Gischig, V.; Zechar, J. D.; Wiemer, S.

    2018-01-01

    In recent years, human-induced seismicity has become a more and more relevant topic due to its economic and social implications. Several models and approaches have been developed to explain underlying physical processes or forecast induced seismicity. They range from simple statistical models to coupled numerical models incorporating complex physics. We advocate the need for forecast testing as currently the best method for ascertaining if models are capable to reasonably accounting for key physical governing processes—or not. Moreover, operational forecast models are of great interest to help on-site decision-making in projects entailing induced earthquakes. We previously introduced a standardized framework following the guidelines of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability, the Induced Seismicity Test Bench, to test, validate, and rank induced seismicity models. In this study, we describe how to construct multicomponent ensemble models based on Bayesian weightings that deliver more accurate forecasts than individual models in the case of Basel 2006 and Soultz-sous-Forêts 2004 enhanced geothermal stimulation projects. For this, we examine five calibrated variants of two significantly different model groups: (1) Shapiro and Smoothed Seismicity based on the seismogenic index, simple modified Omori-law-type seismicity decay, and temporally weighted smoothed seismicity; (2) Hydraulics and Seismicity based on numerically modelled pore pressure evolution that triggers seismicity using the Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion. We also demonstrate how the individual and ensemble models would perform as part of an operational Adaptive Traffic Light System. Investigating seismicity forecasts based on a range of potential injection scenarios, we use forecast periods of different durations to compute the occurrence probabilities of seismic events M ≥ 3. We show that in the case of the Basel 2006 geothermal stimulation the models forecast hazardous levels

  16. Ensemble Bayesian forecasting system Part I: Theory and algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herr, Henry D.; Krzysztofowicz, Roman

    2015-05-01

    The ensemble Bayesian forecasting system (EBFS), whose theory was published in 2001, is developed for the purpose of quantifying the total uncertainty about a discrete-time, continuous-state, non-stationary stochastic process such as a time series of stages, discharges, or volumes at a river gauge. The EBFS is built of three components: an input ensemble forecaster (IEF), which simulates the uncertainty associated with random inputs; a deterministic hydrologic model (of any complexity), which simulates physical processes within a river basin; and a hydrologic uncertainty processor (HUP), which simulates the hydrologic uncertainty (an aggregate of all uncertainties except input). It works as a Monte Carlo simulator: an ensemble of time series of inputs (e.g., precipitation amounts) generated by the IEF is transformed deterministically through a hydrologic model into an ensemble of time series of outputs, which is next transformed stochastically by the HUP into an ensemble of time series of predictands (e.g., river stages). Previous research indicated that in order to attain an acceptable sampling error, the ensemble size must be on the order of hundreds (for probabilistic river stage forecasts and probabilistic flood forecasts) or even thousands (for probabilistic stage transition forecasts). The computing time needed to run the hydrologic model this many times renders the straightforward simulations operationally infeasible. This motivates the development of the ensemble Bayesian forecasting system with randomization (EBFSR), which takes full advantage of the analytic meta-Gaussian HUP and generates multiple ensemble members after each run of the hydrologic model; this auxiliary randomization reduces the required size of the meteorological input ensemble and makes it operationally feasible to generate a Bayesian ensemble forecast of large size. Such a forecast quantifies the total uncertainty, is well calibrated against the prior (climatic) distribution of

  17. Traveler Phase 1A Joint Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    St. John, Clint; Scofield, Jan; Skoog, Mark; Flock, Alex; Williams, Ethan; Guirguis, Luke; Loudon, Kevin; Sutherland, Jeffrey; Lehmann, Richard; Garland, Michael; hide

    2017-01-01

    The briefing contains the preliminary findings and suggestions for improvement of methods used in development and evaluation of a multi monitor runtime assurance architecture for autonomous flight vehicles. Initial system design, implementation, verification, and flight testing has been conducted. As of yet detailed data review is incomplete, and flight testing has been limited to initial monitor force fights. Detailed monitor flight evaluations have yet to be performed.

  18. Robust Ensemble Filtering and Its Relation to Covariance Inflation in the Ensemble Kalman Filter

    KAUST Repository

    Luo, Xiaodong

    2011-12-01

    A robust ensemble filtering scheme based on the H∞ filtering theory is proposed. The optimal H∞ filter is derived by minimizing the supremum (or maximum) of a predefined cost function, a criterion different from the minimum variance used in the Kalman filter. By design, the H∞ filter is more robust than the Kalman filter, in the sense that the estimation error in the H∞ filter in general has a finite growth rate with respect to the uncertainties in assimilation, except for a special case that corresponds to the Kalman filter. The original form of the H∞ filter contains global constraints in time, which may be inconvenient for sequential data assimilation problems. Therefore a variant is introduced that solves some time-local constraints instead, and hence it is called the time-local H∞ filter (TLHF). By analogy to the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), the concept of ensemble time-local H∞ filter (EnTLHF) is also proposed. The general form of the EnTLHF is outlined, and some of its special cases are discussed. In particular, it is shown that an EnKF with certain covariance inflation is essentially an EnTLHF. In this sense, the EnTLHF provides a general framework for conducting covariance inflation in the EnKF-based methods. Some numerical examples are used to assess the relative robustness of the TLHF–EnTLHF in comparison with the corresponding KF–EnKF method.

  19. Effect of land model ensemble versus coupled model ensemble on the simulation of precipitation climatology and variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Jiangfeng; Dirmeyer, Paul A.; Yang, Zong-Liang; Chen, Haishan

    2017-10-01

    Through a series of model simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to three different land surface models, this study investigates the impacts of land model ensembles and coupled model ensemble on precipitation simulation. It is found that coupling an ensemble of land models to an atmospheric model has a very minor impact on the improvement of precipitation climatology and variability, but a simple ensemble average of the precipitation from three individually coupled land-atmosphere models produces better results, especially for precipitation variability. The generally weak impact of land processes on precipitation should be the main reason that the land model ensembles do not improve precipitation simulation. However, if there are big biases in the land surface model or land surface data set, correcting them could improve the simulated climate, especially for well-constrained regional climate simulations.

  20. Initialization methods and ensembles generation for the IPSL GCM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Labetoulle, Sonia; Mignot, Juliette; Guilyardi, Eric; Denvil, Sébastien; Masson, Sébastien

    2010-05-01

    The protocol used and developments made for decadal and seasonal predictability studies at IPSL (Paris, France) are presented. The strategy chosen is to initialize the IPSL-CM5 (NEMO ocean and LMDZ atmosphere) model only at the ocean-atmosphere interface, following the guidance and expertise gained from ocean-only NEMO experiments. Two novel approaches are presented for initializing the coupled system. First, a nudging of sea surface temperature and wind stress towards available reanalysis is made with the surface salinity climatologically restored. Second, the heat, salt and momentum fluxes received by the ocean model are computed as a linear combination of the fluxes computed by the atmospheric model and by a CORE-style bulk formulation using up-to-date reanalysis. The steps that led to these choices are presented, as well as a description of the code adaptation and a comparison of the computational cost of both methods. The strategy for the generation of ensembles at the end of the initialization phase is also presented. We show how the technical environment of IPSL-CM5 (LibIGCM) was modified to achieve these goals.

  1. Multidimensional generalized-ensemble algorithms for complex systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitsutake, Ayori; Okamoto, Yuko

    2009-06-07

    We give general formulations of the multidimensional multicanonical algorithm, simulated tempering, and replica-exchange method. We generalize the original potential energy function E(0) by adding any physical quantity V of interest as a new energy term. These multidimensional generalized-ensemble algorithms then perform a random walk not only in E(0) space but also in V space. Among the three algorithms, the replica-exchange method is the easiest to perform because the weight factor is just a product of regular Boltzmann-like factors, while the weight factors for the multicanonical algorithm and simulated tempering are not a priori known. We give a simple procedure for obtaining the weight factors for these two latter algorithms, which uses a short replica-exchange simulation and the multiple-histogram reweighting techniques. As an example of applications of these algorithms, we have performed a two-dimensional replica-exchange simulation and a two-dimensional simulated-tempering simulation using an alpha-helical peptide system. From these simulations, we study the helix-coil transitions of the peptide in gas phase and in aqueous solution.

  2. A hybrid ensemble learning approach to star-galaxy classification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Edward J.; Brunner, Robert J.; Carrasco Kind, Matias

    2015-10-01

    There exist a variety of star-galaxy classification techniques, each with their own strengths and weaknesses. In this paper, we present a novel meta-classification framework that combines and fully exploits different techniques to produce a more robust star-galaxy classification. To demonstrate this hybrid, ensemble approach, we combine a purely morphological classifier, a supervised machine learning method based on random forest, an unsupervised machine learning method based on self-organizing maps, and a hierarchical Bayesian template-fitting method. Using data from the CFHTLenS survey (Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope Lensing Survey), we consider different scenarios: when a high-quality training set is available with spectroscopic labels from DEEP2 (Deep Extragalactic Evolutionary Probe Phase 2 ), SDSS (Sloan Digital Sky Survey), VIPERS (VIMOS Public Extragalactic Redshift Survey), and VVDS (VIMOS VLT Deep Survey), and when the demographics of sources in a low-quality training set do not match the demographics of objects in the test data set. We demonstrate that our Bayesian combination technique improves the overall performance over any individual classification method in these scenarios. Thus, strategies that combine the predictions of different classifiers may prove to be optimal in currently ongoing and forthcoming photometric surveys, such as the Dark Energy Survey and the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope.

  3. Phase transition in finite systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chomaz, Ph.; Duflot, V.; Duflot, V.; Gulminelli, F.

    2000-01-01

    In this paper we present a review of selected aspects of Phase transitions in finite systems applied in particular to the liquid-gas phase transition in nuclei. We show that the problem of the non existence of boundary conditions can be solved by introducing a statistical ensemble with an averaged constrained volume. In such an ensemble the microcanonical heat capacity becomes negative in the transition region. We show that the caloric curve explicitly depends on the considered transformation of the volume with the excitation energy and so does not bear direct informations on the characteristics of the phase transition. Conversely, partial energy fluctuations are demonstrated to be a direct measure of the equation of state. Since the heat capacity has a negative branch in the phase transition region, the presence of abnormally large kinetic energy fluctuations is a signal of the liquid gas phase transition. (author)

  4. Visualizing projected Climate Changes - the CMIP5 Multi-Model Ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Böttinger, Michael; Eyring, Veronika; Lauer, Axel; Meier-Fleischer, Karin

    2017-04-01

    Large ensembles add an additional dimension to climate model simulations. Internal variability of the climate system can be assessed for example by multiple climate model simulations with small variations in the initial conditions or by analyzing the spread in large ensembles made by multiple climate models under common protocols. This spread is often used as a measure of uncertainty in climate projections. In the context of the fifth phase of the WCRP's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), more than 40 different coupled climate models were employed to carry out a coordinated set of experiments. Time series of the development of integral quantities such as the global mean temperature change for all models visualize the spread in the multi-model ensemble. A similar approach can be applied to 2D-visualizations of projected climate changes such as latitude-longitude maps showing the multi-model mean of the ensemble by adding a graphical representation of the uncertainty information. This has been demonstrated for example with static figures in chapter 12 of the last IPCC report (AR5) using different so-called stippling and hatching techniques. In this work, we focus on animated visualizations of multi-model ensemble climate projections carried out within CMIP5 as a way of communicating climate change results to the scientific community as well as to the public. We take a closer look at measures of robustness or uncertainty used in recent publications suitable for animated visualizations. Specifically, we use the ESMValTool [1] to process and prepare the CMIP5 multi-model data in combination with standard visualization tools such as NCL and the commercial 3D visualization software Avizo to create the animations. We compare different visualization techniques such as height fields or shading with transparency for creating animated visualization of ensemble mean changes in temperature and precipitation including corresponding robustness measures. [1] Eyring, V

  5. A Numerical Comparison of Rule Ensemble Methods and Support Vector Machines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meza, Juan C.; Woods, Mark

    2009-12-18

    Machine or statistical learning is a growing field that encompasses many scientific problems including estimating parameters from data, identifying risk factors in health studies, image recognition, and finding clusters within datasets, to name just a few examples. Statistical learning can be described as 'learning from data' , with the goal of making a prediction of some outcome of interest. This prediction is usually made on the basis of a computer model that is built using data where the outcomes and a set of features have been previously matched. The computer model is called a learner, hence the name machine learning. In this paper, we present two such algorithms, a support vector machine method and a rule ensemble method. We compared their predictive power on three supernova type 1a data sets provided by the Nearby Supernova Factory and found that while both methods give accuracies of approximately 95%, the rule ensemble method gives much lower false negative rates.

  6. An Efficient Ensemble Learning Method for Gene Microarray Classification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alireza Osareh

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The gene microarray analysis and classification have demonstrated an effective way for the effective diagnosis of diseases and cancers. However, it has been also revealed that the basic classification techniques have intrinsic drawbacks in achieving accurate gene classification and cancer diagnosis. On the other hand, classifier ensembles have received increasing attention in various applications. Here, we address the gene classification issue using RotBoost ensemble methodology. This method is a combination of Rotation Forest and AdaBoost techniques which in turn preserve both desirable features of an ensemble architecture, that is, accuracy and diversity. To select a concise subset of informative genes, 5 different feature selection algorithms are considered. To assess the efficiency of the RotBoost, other nonensemble/ensemble techniques including Decision Trees, Support Vector Machines, Rotation Forest, AdaBoost, and Bagging are also deployed. Experimental results have revealed that the combination of the fast correlation-based feature selection method with ICA-based RotBoost ensemble is highly effective for gene classification. In fact, the proposed method can create ensemble classifiers which outperform not only the classifiers produced by the conventional machine learning but also the classifiers generated by two widely used conventional ensemble learning methods, that is, Bagging and AdaBoost.

  7. A functional proteogenomic analysis of endometrioid and clear cell carcinomas using reverse phase protein array and mutation analysis: protein expression is histotype-specific and loss of ARID1A/BAF250a is associated with AKT phosphorylation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wiegand, Kimberly C; Lu, Yiling; Zhang, Fan; Anglesio, Michael S; Gilks, Blake; Mills, Gordon B; Huntsman, David G; Carey, Mark S; Hennessy, Bryan T; Leung, Samuel; Wang, Yemin; Ju, Zhenlin; McGahren, Mollianne; Kalloger, Steve E; Finlayson, Sarah; Stemke-Hale, Katherine

    2014-01-01

    Ovarian cancer is now recognized as a number of distinct diseases primarily defined by histological subtype. Both clear cell ovarian carcinomas (CCC) and ovarian endometrioid carcinomas (EC) may arise from endometriosis and frequently harbor mutations in the ARID1A tumor suppressor gene. We studied the influence of histological subtype on protein expression with reverse phase protein array (RPPA) and assessed proteomic changes associated with ARID1A mutation/BAF250a expression in EC and CCC. Immunohistochemistry (IHC) for BAF250a expression was performed on 127 chemotherapy-naive ovarian carcinomas (33 CCC, 29 EC, and 65 high-grade serous ovarian carcinomas (HGSC)). Whole tumor lysates were prepared from frozen banked tumor samples and profiled by RPPA using 116 antibodies. ARID1A mutations were identified by exome sequencing, and PIK3CA mutations were characterized by MALDI-TOF mass spectrometry. SAM (Significance Analysis of Microarrays) was performed to determine differential protein expression by histological subtype and ARID1A mutation status. Multivariate logistic regression was used to assess the impact of ARID1A mutation status/BAF250a expression on AKT phosphorylation (pAKT). PIK3CA mutation type and PTEN expression were included in the model. BAF250a knockdown was performed in 3 clear cell lines using siRNA to ARID1A. Marked differences in protein expression were observed that are driven by histotype. Compared to HGSC, SAM identified over 50 proteins that are differentially expressed in CCC and EC. These included PI3K/AKT pathway proteins, those regulating the cell cycle, apoptosis, transcription, and other signaling pathways including steroid hormone signaling. Multivariate models showed that tumors with loss of BAF250a expression showed significantly higher levels of AKT-Thr 308 and AKT-Ser 473 phosphorylation (p < 0.05). In 31 CCC cases, pAKT was similarly significantly increased in tumors with BAF250a loss on IHC. Knockdown of BAF250a by siRNA in

  8. Selecting a climate model subset to optimise key ensemble properties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Herger

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available End users studying impacts and risks caused by human-induced climate change are often presented with large multi-model ensembles of climate projections whose composition and size are arbitrarily determined. An efficient and versatile method that finds a subset which maintains certain key properties from the full ensemble is needed, but very little work has been done in this area. Therefore, users typically make their own somewhat subjective subset choices and commonly use the equally weighted model mean as a best estimate. However, different climate model simulations cannot necessarily be regarded as independent estimates due to the presence of duplicated code and shared development history. Here, we present an efficient and flexible tool that makes better use of the ensemble as a whole by finding a subset with improved mean performance compared to the multi-model mean while at the same time maintaining the spread and addressing the problem of model interdependence. Out-of-sample skill and reliability are demonstrated using model-as-truth experiments. This approach is illustrated with one set of optimisation criteria but we also highlight the flexibility of cost functions, depending on the focus of different users. The technique is useful for a range of applications that, for example, minimise present-day bias to obtain an accurate ensemble mean, reduce dependence in ensemble spread, maximise future spread, ensure good performance of individual models in an ensemble, reduce the ensemble size while maintaining important ensemble characteristics, or optimise several of these at the same time. As in any calibration exercise, the final ensemble is sensitive to the metric, observational product, and pre-processing steps used.

  9. Selecting a climate model subset to optimise key ensemble properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herger, Nadja; Abramowitz, Gab; Knutti, Reto; Angélil, Oliver; Lehmann, Karsten; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

    2018-02-01

    End users studying impacts and risks caused by human-induced climate change are often presented with large multi-model ensembles of climate projections whose composition and size are arbitrarily determined. An efficient and versatile method that finds a subset which maintains certain key properties from the full ensemble is needed, but very little work has been done in this area. Therefore, users typically make their own somewhat subjective subset choices and commonly use the equally weighted model mean as a best estimate. However, different climate model simulations cannot necessarily be regarded as independent estimates due to the presence of duplicated code and shared development history. Here, we present an efficient and flexible tool that makes better use of the ensemble as a whole by finding a subset with improved mean performance compared to the multi-model mean while at the same time maintaining the spread and addressing the problem of model interdependence. Out-of-sample skill and reliability are demonstrated using model-as-truth experiments. This approach is illustrated with one set of optimisation criteria but we also highlight the flexibility of cost functions, depending on the focus of different users. The technique is useful for a range of applications that, for example, minimise present-day bias to obtain an accurate ensemble mean, reduce dependence in ensemble spread, maximise future spread, ensure good performance of individual models in an ensemble, reduce the ensemble size while maintaining important ensemble characteristics, or optimise several of these at the same time. As in any calibration exercise, the final ensemble is sensitive to the metric, observational product, and pre-processing steps used.

  10. Modeling task-specific neuronal ensembles improves decoding of grasp

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Ryan J.; Soares, Alcimar B.; Rouse, Adam G.; Schieber, Marc H.; Thakor, Nitish V.

    2018-06-01

    Objective. Dexterous movement involves the activation and coordination of networks of neuronal populations across multiple cortical regions. Attempts to model firing of individual neurons commonly treat the firing rate as directly modulating with motor behavior. However, motor behavior may additionally be associated with modulations in the activity and functional connectivity of neurons in a broader ensemble. Accounting for variations in neural ensemble connectivity may provide additional information about the behavior being performed. Approach. In this study, we examined neural ensemble activity in primary motor cortex (M1) and premotor cortex (PM) of two male rhesus monkeys during performance of a center-out reach, grasp and manipulate task. We constructed point process encoding models of neuronal firing that incorporated task-specific variations in the baseline firing rate as well as variations in functional connectivity with the neural ensemble. Models were evaluated both in terms of their encoding capabilities and their ability to properly classify the grasp being performed. Main results. Task-specific ensemble models correctly predicted the performed grasp with over 95% accuracy and were shown to outperform models of neuronal activity that assume only a variable baseline firing rate. Task-specific ensemble models exhibited superior decoding performance in 82% of units in both monkeys (p  <  0.01). Inclusion of ensemble activity also broadly improved the ability of models to describe observed spiking. Encoding performance of task-specific ensemble models, measured by spike timing predictability, improved upon baseline models in 62% of units. Significance. These results suggest that additional discriminative information about motor behavior found in the variations in functional connectivity of neuronal ensembles located in motor-related cortical regions is relevant to decode complex tasks such as grasping objects, and may serve the basis for more

  11. Three-dimensional classical-ensemble modeling of non-sequential double ionization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haan, S.L.; Breen, L.; Tannor, D.; Panfili, R.; Ho, Phay J.; Eberly, J.H.

    2005-01-01

    Full text: We have been using 1d ensembles of classical two-electron atoms to simulate helium atoms that are exposed to pulses of intense laser radiation. In this talk we discuss the challenges in setting up a 3d classical ensemble that can mimic the quantum ground state of helium. We then report studies in which each one of 500,000 two-electron trajectories is followed in 3d through a ten-cycle (25 fs) 780 nm laser pulse. We examine double-ionization yield for various intensities, finding the familiar knee structure. We consider the momentum spread of outcoming electrons in directions both parallel and perpendicular to the direction of laser polarization, and find results that are consistent with experiment. We examine individual trajectories and recollision processes that lead to double ionization, considering the best phases of the laser cycle for recollision events and looking at the possible time delay between recollision and emergence. We consider also the number of recollision events, and find that multiple recollisions are common in the classical ensemble. We investigate which collisional processes lead to various final electron momenta. We conclude with comments regarding the ability of classical mechanics to describe non-sequential double ionization, and a quick summary of similarities and differences between 1d and 3d classical double ionization using energy-trajectory comparisons. Refs. 3 (author)

  12. Coherent and intermittent ensemble oscillations emerge from networks of irregular spiking neurons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoseini, Mahmood S; Wessel, Ralf

    2016-01-01

    Local field potential (LFP) recordings from spatially distant cortical circuits reveal episodes of coherent gamma oscillations that are intermittent, and of variable peak frequency and duration. Concurrently, single neuron spiking remains largely irregular and of low rate. The underlying potential mechanisms of this emergent network activity have long been debated. Here we reproduce such intermittent ensemble oscillations in a model network, consisting of excitatory and inhibitory model neurons with the characteristics of regular-spiking (RS) pyramidal neurons, and fast-spiking (FS) and low-threshold spiking (LTS) interneurons. We find that fluctuations in the external inputs trigger reciprocally connected and irregularly spiking RS and FS neurons in episodes of ensemble oscillations, which are terminated by the recruitment of the LTS population with concurrent accumulation of inhibitory conductance in both RS and FS neurons. The model qualitatively reproduces experimentally observed phase drift, oscillation episode duration distributions, variation in the peak frequency, and the concurrent irregular single-neuron spiking at low rate. Furthermore, consistent with previous experimental studies using optogenetic manipulation, periodic activation of FS, but not RS, model neurons causes enhancement of gamma oscillations. In addition, increasing the coupling between two model networks from low to high reveals a transition from independent intermittent oscillations to coherent intermittent oscillations. In conclusion, the model network suggests biologically plausible mechanisms for the generation of episodes of coherent intermittent ensemble oscillations with irregular spiking neurons in cortical circuits. Copyright © 2016 the American Physiological Society.

  13. Radial electric field and rotation of the ensemble of plasma particles in tokamak

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sorokina, E. A.; Ilgisonis, V. I.

    2012-01-01

    The velocity of macroscopic rotation of an ensemble of charged particles in a tokamak in the presence of an electric field has been calculated in a collisionless approximation. It is shown that the velocity of toroidal rotation does not reduce to a local velocity of electric drift and has opposite directions on the inner and outer sides of the torus. This result is supplemented by an analysis of the trajectories of motion of individual particles in the ensemble, which shows that the passing and trapped particles of the ensemble acquire in the electric field, on the average, different toroidal velocities. For the trapped particles, this velocity is equal to that of electric drift in the poloidal magnetic field, while the velocity of passing particles is significantly different. It is shown that, although the electric-field-induced shift of the boundaries between trapped and passing particles in the phase space depends on the particle mass and charge and is, in the general case, asymmetric, this does not lead to current generation.

  14. Phase transitions in light nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dukelsky, J.; Poves, A.; Retamosa, J.

    1991-01-01

    The SU(3) Elliott model is used to study the thermal description of 20 Ne. This solvable model allows us to work in the canonical ensemble and still be able to define an order parameter, the expectation value of the intrinsic quadrupole moment, to investigate the occurrence of phase transitions

  15. Ensemble Deep Learning for Biomedical Time Series Classification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lin-peng Jin

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Ensemble learning has been proved to improve the generalization ability effectively in both theory and practice. In this paper, we briefly outline the current status of research on it first. Then, a new deep neural network-based ensemble method that integrates filtering views, local views, distorted views, explicit training, implicit training, subview prediction, and Simple Average is proposed for biomedical time series classification. Finally, we validate its effectiveness on the Chinese Cardiovascular Disease Database containing a large number of electrocardiogram recordings. The experimental results show that the proposed method has certain advantages compared to some well-known ensemble methods, such as Bagging and AdaBoost.

  16. Device and Method for Gathering Ensemble Data Sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Racette, Paul E. (Inventor)

    2014-01-01

    An ensemble detector uses calibrated noise references to produce ensemble sets of data from which properties of non-stationary processes may be extracted. The ensemble detector comprising: a receiver; a switching device coupled to the receiver, the switching device configured to selectively connect each of a plurality of reference noise signals to the receiver; and a gain modulation circuit coupled to the receiver and configured to vary a gain of the receiver based on a forcing signal; whereby the switching device selectively connects each of the plurality of reference noise signals to the receiver to produce an output signal derived from the plurality of reference noise signals and the forcing signal.

  17. Parallel quantum computing in a single ensemble quantum computer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Long Guilu; Xiao, L.

    2004-01-01

    We propose a parallel quantum computing mode for ensemble quantum computer. In this mode, some qubits are in pure states while other qubits are in mixed states. It enables a single ensemble quantum computer to perform 'single-instruction-multidata' type of parallel computation. Parallel quantum computing can provide additional speedup in Grover's algorithm and Shor's algorithm. In addition, it also makes a fuller use of qubit resources in an ensemble quantum computer. As a result, some qubits discarded in the preparation of an effective pure state in the Schulman-Varizani and the Cleve-DiVincenzo algorithms can be reutilized

  18. Evaluation of medium-range ensemble flood forecasting based on calibration strategies and ensemble methods in Lanjiang Basin, Southeast China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Li; Gao, Chao; Xuan, Weidong; Xu, Yue-Ping

    2017-11-01

    Ensemble flood forecasts by hydrological models using numerical weather prediction products as forcing data are becoming more commonly used in operational flood forecasting applications. In this study, a hydrological ensemble flood forecasting system comprised of an automatically calibrated Variable Infiltration Capacity model and quantitative precipitation forecasts from TIGGE dataset is constructed for Lanjiang Basin, Southeast China. The impacts of calibration strategies and ensemble methods on the performance of the system are then evaluated. The hydrological model is optimized by the parallel programmed ε-NSGA II multi-objective algorithm. According to the solutions by ε-NSGA II, two differently parameterized models are determined to simulate daily flows and peak flows at each of the three hydrological stations. Then a simple yet effective modular approach is proposed to combine these daily and peak flows at the same station into one composite series. Five ensemble methods and various evaluation metrics are adopted. The results show that ε-NSGA II can provide an objective determination on parameter estimation, and the parallel program permits a more efficient simulation. It is also demonstrated that the forecasts from ECMWF have more favorable skill scores than other Ensemble Prediction Systems. The multimodel ensembles have advantages over all the single model ensembles and the multimodel methods weighted on members and skill scores outperform other methods. Furthermore, the overall performance at three stations can be satisfactory up to ten days, however the hydrological errors can degrade the skill score by approximately 2 days, and the influence persists until a lead time of 10 days with a weakening trend. With respect to peak flows selected by the Peaks Over Threshold approach, the ensemble means from single models or multimodels are generally underestimated, indicating that the ensemble mean can bring overall improvement in forecasting of flows. For

  19. Scalable quantum information processing with atomic ensembles and flying photons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mei Feng; Yu Yafei; Feng Mang; Zhang Zhiming

    2009-01-01

    We present a scheme for scalable quantum information processing with atomic ensembles and flying photons. Using the Rydberg blockade, we encode the qubits in the collective atomic states, which could be manipulated fast and easily due to the enhanced interaction in comparison to the single-atom case. We demonstrate that our proposed gating could be applied to generation of two-dimensional cluster states for measurement-based quantum computation. Moreover, the atomic ensembles also function as quantum repeaters useful for long-distance quantum state transfer. We show the possibility of our scheme to work in bad cavity or in weak coupling regime, which could much relax the experimental requirement. The efficient coherent operations on the ensemble qubits enable our scheme to be switchable between quantum computation and quantum communication using atomic ensembles.

  20. HIGH-RESOLUTION ATMOSPHERIC ENSEMBLE MODELING AT SRNL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buckley, R.; Werth, D.; Chiswell, S.; Etherton, B.

    2011-05-10

    The High-Resolution Mid-Atlantic Forecasting Ensemble (HME) is a federated effort to improve operational forecasts related to precipitation, convection and boundary layer evolution, and fire weather utilizing data and computing resources from a diverse group of cooperating institutions in order to create a mesoscale ensemble from independent members. Collaborating organizations involved in the project include universities, National Weather Service offices, and national laboratories, including the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL). The ensemble system is produced from an overlapping numerical weather prediction model domain and parameter subsets provided by each contributing member. The coordination, synthesis, and dissemination of the ensemble information are performed by the Renaissance Computing Institute (RENCI) at the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill. This paper discusses background related to the HME effort, SRNL participation, and example results available from the RENCI website.

  1. Relation between native ensembles and experimental structures of proteins

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Best, R. B.; Lindorff-Larsen, Kresten; DePristo, M. A.

    2006-01-01

    Different experimental structures of the same protein or of proteins with high sequence similarity contain many small variations. Here we construct ensembles of "high-sequence similarity Protein Data Bank" (HSP) structures and consider the extent to which such ensembles represent the structural...... Data Bank ensembles; moreover, we show that the effects of uncertainties in structure determination are insufficient to explain the results. These results highlight the importance of accounting for native-state protein dynamics in making comparisons with ensemble-averaged experimental data and suggest...... heterogeneity of the native state in solution. We find that different NMR measurements probing structure and dynamics of given proteins in solution, including order parameters, scalar couplings, and residual dipolar couplings, are remarkably well reproduced by their respective high-sequence similarity Protein...

  2. Time-dependent generalized Gibbs ensembles in open quantum systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lange, Florian; Lenarčič, Zala; Rosch, Achim

    2018-04-01

    Generalized Gibbs ensembles have been used as powerful tools to describe the steady state of integrable many-particle quantum systems after a sudden change of the Hamiltonian. Here, we demonstrate numerically that they can be used for a much broader class of problems. We consider integrable systems in the presence of weak perturbations which break both integrability and drive the system to a state far from equilibrium. Under these conditions, we show that the steady state and the time evolution on long timescales can be accurately described by a (truncated) generalized Gibbs ensemble with time-dependent Lagrange parameters, determined from simple rate equations. We compare the numerically exact time evolutions of density matrices for small systems with a theory based on block-diagonal density matrices (diagonal ensemble) and a time-dependent generalized Gibbs ensemble containing only a small number of approximately conserved quantities, using the one-dimensional Heisenberg model with perturbations described by Lindblad operators as an example.

  3. Quantum Ensemble Classification: A Sampling-Based Learning Control Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chunlin; Dong, Daoyi; Qi, Bo; Petersen, Ian R; Rabitz, Herschel

    2017-06-01

    Quantum ensemble classification (QEC) has significant applications in discrimination of atoms (or molecules), separation of isotopes, and quantum information extraction. However, quantum mechanics forbids deterministic discrimination among nonorthogonal states. The classification of inhomogeneous quantum ensembles is very challenging, since there exist variations in the parameters characterizing the members within different classes. In this paper, we recast QEC as a supervised quantum learning problem. A systematic classification methodology is presented by using a sampling-based learning control (SLC) approach for quantum discrimination. The classification task is accomplished via simultaneously steering members belonging to different classes to their corresponding target states (e.g., mutually orthogonal states). First, a new discrimination method is proposed for two similar quantum systems. Then, an SLC method is presented for QEC. Numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach for the binary classification of two-level quantum ensembles and the multiclass classification of multilevel quantum ensembles.

  4. Probing RNA native conformational ensembles with structural constraints

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fonseca, Rasmus; van den Bedem, Henry; Bernauer, Julie

    2016-01-01

    substates, which are difficult to characterize experimentally and computationally. Here, we present an innovative, entirely kinematic computational procedure to efficiently explore the native ensemble of RNA molecules. Our procedure projects degrees of freedom onto a subspace of conformation space defined...

  5. Reservoir History Matching Using Ensemble Kalman Filters with Anamorphosis Transforms

    KAUST Repository

    Aman, Beshir M.

    2012-01-01

    Some History matching methods such as Kalman filter, particle filter and the ensemble Kalman filter are reviewed and applied to a test case in the reservoir application. The key idea is to apply the transformation before the update step

  6. An ensemble classifier to predict track geometry degradation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cárdenas-Gallo, Iván; Sarmiento, Carlos A.; Morales, Gilberto A.; Bolivar, Manuel A.; Akhavan-Tabatabaei, Raha

    2017-01-01

    Railway operations are inherently complex and source of several problems. In particular, track geometry defects are one of the leading causes of train accidents in the United States. This paper presents a solution approach which entails the construction of an ensemble classifier to forecast the degradation of track geometry. Our classifier is constructed by solving the problem from three different perspectives: deterioration, regression and classification. We considered a different model from each perspective and our results show that using an ensemble method improves the predictive performance. - Highlights: • We present an ensemble classifier to forecast the degradation of track geometry. • Our classifier considers three perspectives: deterioration, regression and classification. • We construct and test three models and our results show that using an ensemble method improves the predictive performance.

  7. Dissipation induced asymmetric steering of distant atomic ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Guangling; Tan, Huatang; Chen, Aixi

    2018-04-01

    The asymmetric steering effects of separated atomic ensembles denoted by the effective bosonic modes have been explored by the means of quantum reservoir engineering in the setting of the cascaded cavities, in each of which an atomic ensemble is involved. It is shown that the steady-state asymmetric steering of the mesoscopic objects is unconditionally achieved via the dissipation of the cavities, by which the nonlocal interaction occurs between two atomic ensembles, and the direction of steering could be easily controlled through variation of certain tunable system parameters. One advantage of the present scheme is that it could be rather robust against parameter fluctuations, and does not require the accurate control of evolution time and the original state of the system. Furthermore, the double-channel Raman transitions between the long-lived atomic ground states are used and the atomic ensembles act as the quantum network nodes, which makes our scheme insensitive to the collective spontaneous emission of atoms.

  8. Probability Maps for the Visualization of Assimilation Ensemble Flow Data

    KAUST Repository

    Hollt, Thomas; Hadwiger, Markus; Knio, Omar; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2015-01-01

    resampling, every member can follow up on any of the members before resampling. Tracking behavior over time, such as all possible paths of a particle in an ensemble vector field, becomes very difficult, as the number of combinations rises exponentially

  9. Evaporation-condensation transition of the two-dimensional Potts model in the microcanonical ensemble

    KAUST Repository

    Nogawa, Tomoaki

    2011-12-05

    The evaporation-condensation transition of the Potts model on a square lattice is numerically investigated by the Wang-Landau sampling method. An intrinsically system-size-dependent discrete transition between supersaturation state and phase-separation state is observed in the microcanonical ensemble by changing constrained internal energy. We calculate the microcanonical temperature, as a derivative of microcanonical entropy, and condensation ratio, and perform a finite-size scaling of them to indicate the clear tendency of numerical data to converge to the infinite-size limit predicted by phenomenological theory for the isotherm lattice gas model. © 2011 American Physical Society.

  10. Flexible implementation of the Ensemble Model with arbitrary order of moments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ackermann, W. [Technische Universitaet Darmstadt, Institut fuer Theorie Elektromagnetischer Felder (TEMF), Schlossgartenstrasse 8, D 64289 Darmstadt (Germany)]. E-mail: ackermann@temf.tu-darmstadt.de; Weiland, T. [Technische Universitaet Darmstadt, Institut fuer Theorie Elektromagnetischer Felder (TEMF), Schlossgartenstrasse 8, D 64289 Darmstadt (Germany)]. E-mail: thomas.weiland@temf.tu-darmstadt.de

    2006-03-01

    The Ensemble Model takes advantage of an approach to express the phase space particle distribution function in terms of the first, second and higher order moments instead of considering individual particles. Based on a new flexible implementation, an arbitrary number of orders can be processed and automatically converted into proper update equations for the simulation program V-Code. In this paper the influence of the introduction of higher order moments on the beam dynamics simulation is investigated. The achievable accuracy and the numerical efforts are compared with the ones obtained from the lower order calculations.

  11. Ensemble of regional climate model projections for Ireland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolan, Paul; McGrath, Ray

    2016-04-01

    The method of Regional Climate Modelling (RCM) was employed to assess the impacts of a warming climate on the mid-21st-century climate of Ireland. The RCM simulations were run at high spatial resolution, up to 4 km, thus allowing a better evaluation of the local effects of climate change. Simulations were run for a reference period 1981-2000 and future period 2041-2060. Differences between the two periods provide a measure of climate change. To address the issue of uncertainty, a multi-model ensemble approach was employed. Specifically, the future climate of Ireland was simulated using three different RCMs, driven by four Global Climate Models (GCMs). To account for the uncertainty in future emissions, a number of SRES (B1, A1B, A2) and RCP (4.5, 8.5) emission scenarios were used to simulate the future climate. Through the ensemble approach, the uncertainty in the RCM projections can be partially quantified, thus providing a measure of confidence in the predictions. In addition, likelihood values can be assigned to the projections. The RCMs used in this work are the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling-Climate Limited-area Modelling (COSMO-CLM, versions 3 and 4) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The GCMs used are the Max Planck Institute's ECHAM5, the UK Met Office's HadGEM2-ES, the CGCM3.1 model from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and the EC-Earth consortium GCM. The projections for mid-century indicate an increase of 1-1.6°C in mean annual temperatures, with the largest increases seen in the east of the country. Warming is enhanced for the extremes (i.e. hot or cold days), with the warmest 5% of daily maximum summer temperatures projected to increase by 0.7-2.6°C. The coldest 5% of night-time temperatures in winter are projected to rise by 1.1-3.1°C. Averaged over the whole country, the number of frost days is projected to decrease by over 50%. The projections indicate an average increase in the length of the growing season

  12. Developing of Thai Classical Music Ensemble in Rattanakosin Period

    OpenAIRE

    Pansak Vandee

    2013-01-01

    The research titled “Developing of Thai Classical Music Ensemble in Rattanakosin Period" aimed 1) to study the history of Thai Classical Music Ensemble in Rattanakosin Period and 2) to analyze changing in each period of Rattanakosin Era. This is the historical and documentary research. The data was collected by in-depth interview those musicians, and academic music experts and field study. The focus group discussion was conducted to analyze and conclude the findings. The research found that t...

  13. Weight Distribution for Non-binary Cluster LDPC Code Ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nozaki, Takayuki; Maehara, Masaki; Kasai, Kenta; Sakaniwa, Kohichi

    In this paper, we derive the average weight distributions for the irregular non-binary cluster low-density parity-check (LDPC) code ensembles. Moreover, we give the exponential growth rate of the average weight distribution in the limit of large code length. We show that there exist $(2,d_c)$-regular non-binary cluster LDPC code ensembles whose normalized typical minimum distances are strictly positive.

  14. On the distribution of eigenvalues of certain matrix ensembles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bogomolny, E.; Bohigas, O.; Pato, M.P.

    1995-01-01

    Invariant random matrix ensembles with weak confinement potentials of the eigenvalues, corresponding to indeterminate moment problems, are investigated. These ensembles are characterized by the fact that the mean density of eigenvalues tends to a continuous function with increasing matrix dimension contrary to the usual cases where it grows indefinitely. It is demonstrated that the standard asymptotic formulae are not applicable in these cases and that the asymptotic distribution of eigenvalues can deviate from the classical ones. (author)

  15. A Separation between Divergence and Holevo Information for Ensembles

    OpenAIRE

    Jain, Rahul; Nayak, Ashwin; Su, Yi

    2007-01-01

    The notion of divergence information of an ensemble of probability distributions was introduced by Jain, Radhakrishnan, and Sen in the context of the ``substate theorem''. Since then, divergence has been recognized as a more natural measure of information in several situations in quantum and classical communication. We construct ensembles of probability distributions for which divergence information may be significantly smaller than the more standard Holevo information. As a result, we establ...

  16. ENSEMBLE methods to reconcile disparate national long range dispersion forecasts

    OpenAIRE

    Mikkelsen, Torben; Galmarini, S.; Bianconi, R.; French, S.

    2003-01-01

    ENSEMBLE is a web-based decision support system for real-time exchange and evaluation of national long-range dispersion forecasts of nuclear releases with cross-boundary consequences. The system is developed with the purpose to reconcile among disparatenational forecasts for long-range dispersion. ENSEMBLE addresses the problem of achieving a common coherent strategy across European national emergency management when national long-range dispersion forecasts differ from one another during an a...

  17. Spectral statistics in semiclassical random-matrix ensembles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feingold, M.; Leitner, D.M.; Wilkinson, M.

    1991-01-01

    A novel random-matrix ensemble is introduced which mimics the global structure inherent in the Hamiltonian matrices of autonomous, ergodic systems. Changes in its parameters induce a transition between a Poisson and a Wigner distribution for the level spacings, P(s). The intermediate distributions are uniquely determined by a single scaling variable. Semiclassical constraints force the ensemble to be in a regime with Wigner P(s) for systems with more than two freedoms

  18. An automated approach to network features of protein structure ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharyya, Moitrayee; Bhat, Chanda R; Vishveshwara, Saraswathi

    2013-01-01

    Network theory applied to protein structures provides insights into numerous problems of biological relevance. The explosion in structural data available from PDB and simulations establishes a need to introduce a standalone-efficient program that assembles network concepts/parameters under one hood in an automated manner. Herein, we discuss the development/application of an exhaustive, user-friendly, standalone program package named PSN-Ensemble, which can handle structural ensembles generated through molecular dynamics (MD) simulation/NMR studies or from multiple X-ray structures. The novelty in network construction lies in the explicit consideration of side-chain interactions among amino acids. The program evaluates network parameters dealing with topological organization and long-range allosteric communication. The introduction of a flexible weighing scheme in terms of residue pairwise cross-correlation/interaction energy in PSN-Ensemble brings in dynamical/chemical knowledge into the network representation. Also, the results are mapped on a graphical display of the structure, allowing an easy access of network analysis to a general biological community. The potential of PSN-Ensemble toward examining structural ensemble is exemplified using MD trajectories of an ubiquitin-conjugating enzyme (UbcH5b). Furthermore, insights derived from network parameters evaluated using PSN-Ensemble for single-static structures of active/inactive states of β2-adrenergic receptor and the ternary tRNA complexes of tyrosyl tRNA synthetases (from organisms across kingdoms) are discussed. PSN-Ensemble is freely available from http://vishgraph.mbu.iisc.ernet.in/PSN-Ensemble/psn_index.html. PMID:23934896

  19. SVM and SVM Ensembles in Breast Cancer Prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Min-Wei; Chen, Chih-Wen; Lin, Wei-Chao; Ke, Shih-Wen; Tsai, Chih-Fong

    2017-01-01

    Breast cancer is an all too common disease in women, making how to effectively predict it an active research problem. A number of statistical and machine learning techniques have been employed to develop various breast cancer prediction models. Among them, support vector machines (SVM) have been shown to outperform many related techniques. To construct the SVM classifier, it is first necessary to decide the kernel function, and different kernel functions can result in different prediction performance. However, there have been very few studies focused on examining the prediction performances of SVM based on different kernel functions. Moreover, it is unknown whether SVM classifier ensembles which have been proposed to improve the performance of single classifiers can outperform single SVM classifiers in terms of breast cancer prediction. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to fully assess the prediction performance of SVM and SVM ensembles over small and large scale breast cancer datasets. The classification accuracy, ROC, F-measure, and computational times of training SVM and SVM ensembles are compared. The experimental results show that linear kernel based SVM ensembles based on the bagging method and RBF kernel based SVM ensembles with the boosting method can be the better choices for a small scale dataset, where feature selection should be performed in the data pre-processing stage. For a large scale dataset, RBF kernel based SVM ensembles based on boosting perform better than the other classifiers.

  20. Flood Forecasting Based on TIGGE Precipitation Ensemble Forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinyin Ye

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available TIGGE (THORPEX International Grand Global Ensemble was a major part of the THORPEX (Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment. It integrates ensemble precipitation products from all the major forecast centers in the world and provides systematic evaluation on the multimodel ensemble prediction system. Development of meteorologic-hydrologic coupled flood forecasting model and early warning model based on the TIGGE precipitation ensemble forecast can provide flood probability forecast, extend the lead time of the flood forecast, and gain more time for decision-makers to make the right decision. In this study, precipitation ensemble forecast products from ECMWF, NCEP, and CMA are used to drive distributed hydrologic model TOPX. We focus on Yi River catchment and aim to build a flood forecast and early warning system. The results show that the meteorologic-hydrologic coupled model can satisfactorily predict the flow-process of four flood events. The predicted occurrence time of peak discharges is close to the observations. However, the magnitude of the peak discharges is significantly different due to various performances of the ensemble prediction systems. The coupled forecasting model can accurately predict occurrence of the peak time and the corresponding risk probability of peak discharge based on the probability distribution of peak time and flood warning, which can provide users a strong theoretical foundation and valuable information as a promising new approach.

  1. Impact of ensemble learning in the assessment of skeletal maturity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunha, Pedro; Moura, Daniel C; Guevara López, Miguel Angel; Guerra, Conceição; Pinto, Daniela; Ramos, Isabel

    2014-09-01

    The assessment of the bone age, or skeletal maturity, is an important task in pediatrics that measures the degree of maturation of children's bones. Nowadays, there is no standard clinical procedure for assessing bone age and the most widely used approaches are the Greulich and Pyle and the Tanner and Whitehouse methods. Computer methods have been proposed to automatize the process; however, there is a lack of exploration about how to combine the features of the different parts of the hand, and how to take advantage of ensemble techniques for this purpose. This paper presents a study where the use of ensemble techniques for improving bone age assessment is evaluated. A new computer method was developed that extracts descriptors for each joint of each finger, which are then combined using different ensemble schemes for obtaining a final bone age value. Three popular ensemble schemes are explored in this study: bagging, stacking and voting. Best results were achieved by bagging with a rule-based regression (M5P), scoring a mean absolute error of 10.16 months. Results show that ensemble techniques improve the prediction performance of most of the evaluated regression algorithms, always achieving best or comparable to best results. Therefore, the success of the ensemble methods allow us to conclude that their use may improve computer-based bone age assessment, offering a scalable option for utilizing multiple regions of interest and combining their output.

  2. Concrete ensemble Kalman filters with rigorous catastrophic filter divergence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, David; Majda, Andrew J; Tong, Xin T

    2015-08-25

    The ensemble Kalman filter and ensemble square root filters are data assimilation methods used to combine high-dimensional, nonlinear dynamical models with observed data. Ensemble methods are indispensable tools in science and engineering and have enjoyed great success in geophysical sciences, because they allow for computationally cheap low-ensemble-state approximation for extremely high-dimensional turbulent forecast models. From a theoretical perspective, the dynamical properties of these methods are poorly understood. One of the central mysteries is the numerical phenomenon known as catastrophic filter divergence, whereby ensemble-state estimates explode to machine infinity, despite the true state remaining in a bounded region. In this article we provide a breakthrough insight into the phenomenon, by introducing a simple and natural forecast model that transparently exhibits catastrophic filter divergence under all ensemble methods and a large set of initializations. For this model, catastrophic filter divergence is not an artifact of numerical instability, but rather a true dynamical property of the filter. The divergence is not only validated numerically but also proven rigorously. The model cleanly illustrates mechanisms that give rise to catastrophic divergence and confirms intuitive accounts of the phenomena given in past literature.

  3. On the forecast skill of a convection-permitting ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schellander-Gorgas, Theresa; Wang, Yong; Meier, Florian; Weidle, Florian; Wittmann, Christoph; Kann, Alexander

    2017-01-01

    The 2.5 km convection-permitting (CP) ensemble AROME-EPS (Applications of Research to Operations at Mesoscale - Ensemble Prediction System) is evaluated by comparison with the regional 11 km ensemble ALADIN-LAEF (Aire Limitée Adaption dynamique Développement InterNational - Limited Area Ensemble Forecasting) to show whether a benefit is provided by a CP EPS. The evaluation focuses on the abilities of the ensembles to quantitatively predict precipitation during a 3-month convective summer period over areas consisting of mountains and lowlands. The statistical verification uses surface observations and 1 km × 1 km precipitation analyses, and the verification scores involve state-of-the-art statistical measures for deterministic and probabilistic forecasts as well as novel spatial verification methods. The results show that the convection-permitting ensemble with higher-resolution AROME-EPS outperforms its mesoscale counterpart ALADIN-LAEF for precipitation forecasts. The positive impact is larger for the mountainous areas than for the lowlands. In particular, the diurnal precipitation cycle is improved in AROME-EPS, which leads to a significant improvement of scores at the concerned times of day (up to approximately one-third of the scored verification measure). Moreover, there are advantages for higher precipitation thresholds at small spatial scales, which are due to the improved simulation of the spatial structure of precipitation.

  4. Ensembles of a small number of conformations with relative populations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vammi, Vijay, E-mail: vsvammi@iastate.edu; Song, Guang, E-mail: gsong@iastate.edu [Iowa State University, Bioinformatics and Computational Biology Program, Department of Computer Science (United States)

    2015-12-15

    In our previous work, we proposed a new way to represent protein native states, using ensembles of a small number of conformations with relative Populations, or ESP in short. Using Ubiquitin as an example, we showed that using a small number of conformations could greatly reduce the potential of overfitting and assigning relative populations to protein ensembles could significantly improve their quality. To demonstrate that ESP indeed is an excellent alternative to represent protein native states, in this work we compare the quality of two ESP ensembles of Ubiquitin with several well-known regular ensembles or average structure representations. Extensive amount of significant experimental data are employed to achieve a thorough assessment. Our results demonstrate that ESP ensembles, though much smaller in size comparing to regular ensembles, perform equally or even better sometimes in all four different types of experimental data used in the assessment, namely, the residual dipolar couplings, residual chemical shift anisotropy, hydrogen exchange rates, and solution scattering profiles. This work further underlines the significance of having relative populations in describing the native states.

  5. Three-model ensemble wind prediction in southern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torcasio, Rosa Claudia; Federico, Stefano; Calidonna, Claudia Roberta; Avolio, Elenio; Drofa, Oxana; Landi, Tony Christian; Malguzzi, Piero; Buzzi, Andrea; Bonasoni, Paolo

    2016-03-01

    Quality of wind prediction is of great importance since a good wind forecast allows the prediction of available wind power, improving the penetration of renewable energies into the energy market. Here, a 1-year (1 December 2012 to 30 November 2013) three-model ensemble (TME) experiment for wind prediction is considered. The models employed, run operationally at National Research Council - Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (CNR-ISAC), are RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modelling System), BOLAM (BOlogna Limited Area Model), and MOLOCH (MOdello LOCale in H coordinates). The area considered for the study is southern Italy and the measurements used for the forecast verification are those of the GTS (Global Telecommunication System). Comparison with observations is made every 3 h up to 48 h of forecast lead time. Results show that the three-model ensemble outperforms the forecast of each individual model. The RMSE improvement compared to the best model is between 22 and 30 %, depending on the season. It is also shown that the three-model ensemble outperforms the IFS (Integrated Forecasting System) of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast) for the surface wind forecasts. Notably, the three-model ensemble forecast performs better than each unbiased model, showing the added value of the ensemble technique. Finally, the sensitivity of the three-model ensemble RMSE to the length of the training period is analysed.

  6. Protein folding simulations by generalized-ensemble algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoda, Takao; Sugita, Yuji; Okamoto, Yuko

    2014-01-01

    In the protein folding problem, conventional simulations in physical statistical mechanical ensembles, such as the canonical ensemble with fixed temperature, face a great difficulty. This is because there exist a huge number of local-minimum-energy states in the system and the conventional simulations tend to get trapped in these states, giving wrong results. Generalized-ensemble algorithms are based on artificial unphysical ensembles and overcome the above difficulty by performing random walks in potential energy, volume, and other physical quantities or their corresponding conjugate parameters such as temperature, pressure, etc. The advantage of generalized-ensemble simulations lies in the fact that they not only avoid getting trapped in states of energy local minima but also allows the calculations of physical quantities as functions of temperature or other parameters from a single simulation run. In this article we review the generalized-ensemble algorithms. Four examples, multicanonical algorithm, replica-exchange method, replica-exchange multicanonical algorithm, and multicanonical replica-exchange method, are described in detail. Examples of their applications to the protein folding problem are presented.

  7. SVM and SVM Ensembles in Breast Cancer Prediction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Min-Wei Huang

    Full Text Available Breast cancer is an all too common disease in women, making how to effectively predict it an active research problem. A number of statistical and machine learning techniques have been employed to develop various breast cancer prediction models. Among them, support vector machines (SVM have been shown to outperform many related techniques. To construct the SVM classifier, it is first necessary to decide the kernel function, and different kernel functions can result in different prediction performance. However, there have been very few studies focused on examining the prediction performances of SVM based on different kernel functions. Moreover, it is unknown whether SVM classifier ensembles which have been proposed to improve the performance of single classifiers can outperform single SVM classifiers in terms of breast cancer prediction. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to fully assess the prediction performance of SVM and SVM ensembles over small and large scale breast cancer datasets. The classification accuracy, ROC, F-measure, and computational times of training SVM and SVM ensembles are compared. The experimental results show that linear kernel based SVM ensembles based on the bagging method and RBF kernel based SVM ensembles with the boosting method can be the better choices for a small scale dataset, where feature selection should be performed in the data pre-processing stage. For a large scale dataset, RBF kernel based SVM ensembles based on boosting perform better than the other classifiers.

  8. Using ensemble models to identify and apportion heavy metal pollution sources in agricultural soils on a local scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qi; Xie, Zhiyi; Li, Fangbai

    2015-11-01

    This study aims to identify and apportion multi-source and multi-phase heavy metal pollution from natural and anthropogenic inputs using ensemble models that include stochastic gradient boosting (SGB) and random forest (RF) in agricultural soils on the local scale. The heavy metal pollution sources were quantitatively assessed, and the results illustrated the suitability of the ensemble models for the assessment of multi-source and multi-phase heavy metal pollution in agricultural soils on the local scale. The results of SGB and RF consistently demonstrated that anthropogenic sources contributed the most to the concentrations of Pb and Cd in agricultural soils in the study region and that SGB performed better than RF. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. On evaluation of ensemble precipitation forecasts with observation-based ensembles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Jaun

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available Spatial interpolation of precipitation data is uncertain. How important is this uncertainty and how can it be considered in evaluation of high-resolution probabilistic precipitation forecasts? These questions are discussed by experimental evaluation of the COSMO consortium's limited-area ensemble prediction system COSMO-LEPS. The applied performance measure is the often used Brier skill score (BSS. The observational references in the evaluation are (a analyzed rain gauge data by ordinary Kriging and (b ensembles of interpolated rain gauge data by stochastic simulation. This permits the consideration of either a deterministic reference (the event is observed or not with 100% certainty or a probabilistic reference that makes allowance for uncertainties in spatial averaging. The evaluation experiments show that the evaluation uncertainties are substantial even for the large area (41 300 km2 of Switzerland with a mean rain gauge distance as good as 7 km: the one- to three-day precipitation forecasts have skill decreasing with forecast lead time but the one- and two-day forecast performances differ not significantly.

  10. EnsembleGASVR: A novel ensemble method for classifying missense single nucleotide polymorphisms

    KAUST Repository

    Rapakoulia, Trisevgeni

    2014-04-26

    Motivation: Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are considered the most frequently occurring DNA sequence variations. Several computational methods have been proposed for the classification of missense SNPs to neutral and disease associated. However, existing computational approaches fail to select relevant features by choosing them arbitrarily without sufficient documentation. Moreover, they are limited to the problem ofmissing values, imbalance between the learning datasets and most of them do not support their predictions with confidence scores. Results: To overcome these limitations, a novel ensemble computational methodology is proposed. EnsembleGASVR facilitates a twostep algorithm, which in its first step applies a novel evolutionary embedded algorithm to locate close to optimal Support Vector Regression models. In its second step, these models are combined to extract a universal predictor, which is less prone to overfitting issues, systematizes the rebalancing of the learning sets and uses an internal approach for solving the missing values problem without loss of information. Confidence scores support all the predictions and the model becomes tunable by modifying the classification thresholds. An extensive study was performed for collecting the most relevant features for the problem of classifying SNPs, and a superset of 88 features was constructed. Experimental results show that the proposed framework outperforms well-known algorithms in terms of classification performance in the examined datasets. Finally, the proposed algorithmic framework was able to uncover the significant role of certain features such as the solvent accessibility feature, and the top-scored predictions were further validated by linking them with disease phenotypes. © The Author 2014.

  11. Crossover between the Gaussian orthogonal ensemble, the Gaussian unitary ensemble, and Poissonian statistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schweiner, Frank; Laturner, Jeanine; Main, Jörg; Wunner, Günter

    2017-11-01

    Until now only for specific crossovers between Poissonian statistics (P), the statistics of a Gaussian orthogonal ensemble (GOE), or the statistics of a Gaussian unitary ensemble (GUE) have analytical formulas for the level spacing distribution function been derived within random matrix theory. We investigate arbitrary crossovers in the triangle between all three statistics. To this aim we propose an according formula for the level spacing distribution function depending on two parameters. Comparing the behavior of our formula for the special cases of P→GUE, P→GOE, and GOE→GUE with the results from random matrix theory, we prove that these crossovers are described reasonably. Recent investigations by F. Schweiner et al. [Phys. Rev. E 95, 062205 (2017)2470-004510.1103/PhysRevE.95.062205] have shown that the Hamiltonian of magnetoexcitons in cubic semiconductors can exhibit all three statistics in dependence on the system parameters. Evaluating the numerical results for magnetoexcitons in dependence on the excitation energy and on a parameter connected with the cubic valence band structure and comparing the results with the formula proposed allows us to distinguish between regular and chaotic behavior as well as between existent or broken antiunitary symmetries. Increasing one of the two parameters, transitions between different crossovers, e.g., from the P→GOE to the P→GUE crossover, are observed and discussed.

  12. The NASA Reanalysis Ensemble Service - Advanced Capabilities for Integrated Reanalysis Access and Intercomparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamkin, G.; Schnase, J. L.; Duffy, D.; Li, J.; Strong, S.; Thompson, J. H.

    2017-12-01

    NASA's efforts to advance climate analytics-as-a-service are making new capabilities available to the research community: (1) A full-featured Reanalysis Ensemble Service (RES) comprising monthly means data from multiple reanalysis data sets, accessible through an enhanced set of extraction, analytic, arithmetic, and intercomparison operations. The operations are made accessible through NASA's climate data analytics Web services and our client-side Climate Data Services Python library, CDSlib; (2) A cloud-based, high-performance Virtual Real-Time Analytics Testbed supporting a select set of climate variables. This near real-time capability enables advanced technologies like Spark and Hadoop-based MapReduce analytics over native NetCDF files; and (3) A WPS-compliant Web service interface to our climate data analytics service that will enable greater interoperability with next-generation systems such as ESGF. The Reanalysis Ensemble Service includes the following: - New API that supports full temporal, spatial, and grid-based resolution services with sample queries - A Docker-ready RES application to deploy across platforms - Extended capabilities that enable single- and multiple reanalysis area average, vertical average, re-gridding, standard deviation, and ensemble averages - Convenient, one-stop shopping for commonly used data products from multiple reanalyses including basic sub-setting and arithmetic operations (e.g., avg, sum, max, min, var, count, anomaly) - Full support for the MERRA-2 reanalysis dataset in addition to, ECMWF ERA-Interim, NCEP CFSR, JMA JRA-55 and NOAA/ESRL 20CR… - A Jupyter notebook-based distribution mechanism designed for client use cases that combines CDSlib documentation with interactive scenarios and personalized project management - Supporting analytic services for NASA GMAO Forward Processing datasets - Basic uncertainty quantification services that combine heterogeneous ensemble products with comparative observational products (e

  13. Kinetics of particle ensembles with variable charges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ivlev, A. V.; Zhdanov, S.; Klumov, B.; Morfill, G.; Tsytovich, V. N.; Angelis, U. de

    2005-01-01

    One of the remarkable features distinguishing complex (dusty) plasmas from usual plasmas is that charges on the grains are not constant, but fluctuate in time around some equilibrium value which, in then, is some function of spatial coordinates. Generally, ensembles of particles with variable charges are non-Hamiltonian systems where the mutual collisions do not conserve energy. Therefore, the use of thermodynamic potentials to describe such systems is not really valid. An appropriate way to investigate their evolution is to employ the kinetic approach. We studied (both analytical and numerically) two cases: (a) inhomogeneous charge-it depends on the particle coordinate but does not change in time, and (b)fluctuating charge-it changes in time around the equilibrium value, which is constant in space. For both cases we used the Fokker-Planck approach to derive the collision integral which describes the momentum and energy transfer in mutual particle collisions as well as in the collisions with neutrals. We obtained that the mean particle energy grows in time when the neutral friction is below a certain threshold (as shown in Fig. 1). In case (a) the energy changes as ∞(t c r-t)''2, in case (b) it scales as ∞(t c r-t)''-1, exhibiting the explosion-like growth with t c r a critical time scale. The obtained solutions can be of significant importance for laboratory dusty plasmas as well as for space plasma environments, where inhomogeneous charge distributions are often present. For instance, the instability can cause dust heating in low-pressure complex plasma experiments, it can be responsible for the melting of plasma crystals, it might operate in protoplanetary disks and effect the kinetics of the planet formation, etc. (Author)

  14. Random ensemble learning for EEG classification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosseini, Mohammad-Parsa; Pompili, Dario; Elisevich, Kost; Soltanian-Zadeh, Hamid

    2018-01-01

    Real-time detection of seizure activity in epilepsy patients is critical in averting seizure activity and improving patients' quality of life. Accurate evaluation, presurgical assessment, seizure prevention, and emergency alerts all depend on the rapid detection of seizure onset. A new method of feature selection and classification for rapid and precise seizure detection is discussed wherein informative components of electroencephalogram (EEG)-derived data are extracted and an automatic method is presented using infinite independent component analysis (I-ICA) to select independent features. The feature space is divided into subspaces via random selection and multichannel support vector machines (SVMs) are used to classify these subspaces. The result of each classifier is then combined by majority voting to establish the final output. In addition, a random subspace ensemble using a combination of SVM, multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network and an extended k-nearest neighbors (k-NN), called extended nearest neighbor (ENN), is developed for the EEG and electrocorticography (ECoG) big data problem. To evaluate the solution, a benchmark ECoG of eight patients with temporal and extratemporal epilepsy was implemented in a distributed computing framework as a multitier cloud-computing architecture. Using leave-one-out cross-validation, the accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and both false positive and false negative ratios of the proposed method were found to be 0.97, 0.98, 0.96, 0.04, and 0.02, respectively. Application of the solution to cases under investigation with ECoG has also been effected to demonstrate its utility. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. MANAGEMENT AND COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF DATASET ENSEMBLES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Geveci, Berk [Senior Director, Scientific Computing

    2010-05-17

    The primary Phase I technical objective was to develop a prototype that demonstrates the functionality of all components required for an end-to-end meta-data management and comparative visualization system.

  16. Combining 2-m temperature nowcasting and short range ensemble forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Kann

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available During recent years, numerical ensemble prediction systems have become an important tool for estimating the uncertainties of dynamical and physical processes as represented in numerical weather models. The latest generation of limited area ensemble prediction systems (LAM-EPSs allows for probabilistic forecasts at high resolution in both space and time. However, these systems still suffer from systematic deficiencies. Especially for nowcasting (0–6 h applications the ensemble spread is smaller than the actual forecast error. This paper tries to generate probabilistic short range 2-m temperature forecasts by combining a state-of-the-art nowcasting method and a limited area ensemble system, and compares the results with statistical methods. The Integrated Nowcasting Through Comprehensive Analysis (INCA system, which has been in operation at the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG since 2006 (Haiden et al., 2011, provides short range deterministic forecasts at high temporal (15 min–60 min and spatial (1 km resolution. An INCA Ensemble (INCA-EPS of 2-m temperature forecasts is constructed by applying a dynamical approach, a statistical approach, and a combined dynamic-statistical method. The dynamical method takes uncertainty information (i.e. ensemble variance from the operational limited area ensemble system ALADIN-LAEF (Aire Limitée Adaptation Dynamique Développement InterNational Limited Area Ensemble Forecasting which is running operationally at ZAMG (Wang et al., 2011. The purely statistical method assumes a well-calibrated spread-skill relation and applies ensemble spread according to the skill of the INCA forecast of the most recent past. The combined dynamic-statistical approach adapts the ensemble variance gained from ALADIN-LAEF with non-homogeneous Gaussian regression (NGR which yields a statistical mbox{correction} of the first and second moment (mean bias and dispersion for Gaussian distributed continuous

  17. Developing an Ensemble Prediction System based on COSMO-DE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theis, S.; Gebhardt, C.; Buchhold, M.; Ben Bouallègue, Z.; Ohl, R.; Paulat, M.; Peralta, C.

    2010-09-01

    The numerical weather prediction model COSMO-DE is a configuration of the COSMO model with a horizontal grid size of 2.8 km. It has been running operationally at DWD since 2007, it covers the area of Germany and produces forecasts with a lead time of 0-21 hours. The model COSMO-DE is convection-permitting, which means that it does without a parametrisation of deep convection and simulates deep convection explicitly. One aim is an improved forecast of convective heavy rain events. Convection-permitting models are in operational use at several weather services, but currently not in ensemble mode. It is expected that an ensemble system could reveal the advantages of a convection-permitting model even better. The probabilistic approach is necessary, because the explicit simulation of convective processes for more than a few hours cannot be viewed as a deterministic forecast anymore. This is due to the chaotic behaviour and short life cycle of the processes which are simulated explicitly now. In the framework of the project COSMO-DE-EPS, DWD is developing and implementing an ensemble prediction system (EPS) for the model COSMO-DE. The project COSMO-DE-EPS comprises the generation of ensemble members, as well as the verification and visualization of the ensemble forecasts and also statistical postprocessing. A pre-operational mode of the EPS with 20 ensemble members is foreseen to start in 2010. Operational use is envisaged to start in 2012, after an upgrade to 40 members and inclusion of statistical postprocessing. The presentation introduces the project COSMO-DE-EPS and describes the design of the ensemble as it is planned for the pre-operational mode. In particular, the currently implemented method for the generation of ensemble members will be explained and discussed. The method includes variations of initial conditions, lateral boundary conditions, and model physics. At present, pragmatic methods are applied which resemble the basic ideas of a multi-model approach

  18. Using ensemble models to identify and apportion heavy metal pollution sources in agricultural soils on a local scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Qi; Xie, Zhiyi; Li, Fangbai

    2015-01-01

    This study aims to identify and apportion multi-source and multi-phase heavy metal pollution from natural and anthropogenic inputs using ensemble models that include stochastic gradient boosting (SGB) and random forest (RF) in agricultural soils on the local scale. The heavy metal pollution sources were quantitatively assessed, and the results illustrated the suitability of the ensemble models for the assessment of multi-source and multi-phase heavy metal pollution in agricultural soils on the local scale. The results of SGB and RF consistently demonstrated that anthropogenic sources contributed the most to the concentrations of Pb and Cd in agricultural soils in the study region and that SGB performed better than RF. - Highlights: • Ensemble models including stochastic gradient boosting and random forest are used. • The models were verified by cross-validation and SGB performed better than RF. • Heavy metal pollution sources on a local scale are identified and apportioned. • Models illustrate good suitability in assessing sources in local-scale agricultural soils. • Anthropogenic sources contributed most to soil Pb and Cd pollution in our case. - Multi-source and multi-phase pollution by heavy metals in agricultural soils on a local scale were identified and apportioned.

  19. LGM permafrost distribution: how well can the latest PMIP multi-model ensembles reconstruct?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saito, K.; Sueyoshi, T.; Marchenko, S.; Romanovsky, V.; Otto-Bliesner, B.; Walsh, J.; Bigelow, N.; Hendricks, A.; Yoshikawa, K.

    2013-03-01

    Global-scale frozen ground distribution during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was reconstructed using multi-model ensembles of global climate models, and then compared with evidence-based knowledge and earlier numerical results. Modeled soil temperatures, taken from Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase III (PMIP3) simulations, were used to diagnose the subsurface thermal regime and determine underlying frozen ground types for the present-day (pre-industrial; 0 k) and the LGM (21 k). This direct method was then compared to the earlier indirect method, which categorizes the underlying frozen ground type from surface air temperature, applied to both the PMIP2 (phase II) and PMIP3 products. Both direct and indirect diagnoses for 0 k showed strong agreement with the present-day observation-based map, although the soil temperature ensemble showed a higher diversity among the models partly due to varying complexity of the implemented subsurface processes. The area of continuous permafrost estimated by the multi-model analysis was 25.6 million km2 for LGM, in contrast to 12.7 million km2 for the pre-industrial control, whereas seasonally, frozen ground increased from 22.5 million km2 to 32.6 million km2. These changes in area resulted mainly from a cooler climate at LGM, but other factors as well, such as the presence of huge land ice sheets and the consequent expansion of total land area due to sea-level change. LGM permafrost boundaries modeled by the PMIP3 ensemble-improved over those of the PMIP2 due to higher spatial resolutions and improved climatology-also compared better to previous knowledge derived from the geomorphological and geocryological evidences. Combinatorial applications of coupled climate models and detailed stand-alone physical-ecological models for the cold-region terrestrial, paleo-, and modern climates will advance our understanding of the functionality and variability of the frozen ground subsystem in the global eco-climate system.

  20. Shallow cumuli ensemble statistics for development of a stochastic parameterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakradzija, Mirjana; Seifert, Axel; Heus, Thijs

    2014-05-01

    According to a conventional deterministic approach to the parameterization of moist convection in numerical atmospheric models, a given large scale forcing produces an unique response from the unresolved convective processes. This representation leaves out the small-scale variability of convection, as it is known from the empirical studies of deep and shallow convective cloud ensembles, there is a whole distribution of sub-grid states corresponding to the given large scale forcing. Moreover, this distribution gets broader with the increasing model resolution. This behavior is also consistent with our theoretical understanding of a coarse-grained nonlinear system. We propose an approach to represent the variability of the unresolved shallow-convective states, including the dependence of the sub-grid states distribution spread and shape on the model horizontal resolution. Starting from the Gibbs canonical ensemble theory, Craig and Cohen (2006) developed a theory for the fluctuations in a deep convective ensemble. The micro-states of a deep convective cloud ensemble are characterized by the cloud-base mass flux, which, according to the theory, is exponentially distributed (Boltzmann distribution). Following their work, we study the shallow cumulus ensemble statistics and the distribution of the cloud-base mass flux. We employ a Large-Eddy Simulation model (LES) and a cloud tracking algorithm, followed by a conditional sampling of clouds at the cloud base level, to retrieve the information about the individual cloud life cycles and the cloud ensemble as a whole. In the case of shallow cumulus cloud ensemble, the distribution of micro-states is a generalized exponential distribution. Based on the empirical and theoretical findings, a stochastic model has been developed to simulate the shallow convective cloud ensemble and to test the convective ensemble theory. Stochastic model simulates a compound random process, with the number of convective elements drawn from a

  1. On the proper use of Ensembles for Predictive Uncertainty assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todini, Ezio; Coccia, Gabriele; Ortiz, Enrique

    2015-04-01

    Probabilistic forecasting has become popular in the last decades. Hydrological probabilistic forecasts have been based either on uncertainty processors (Krzysztofowic, 1999; Todini, 2004; Todini, 2008) or on ensembles, following meteorological traditional approaches and the establishment of the HEPEX program (http://hepex.irstea.fr. Unfortunately, the direct use of ensembles as a measure of the predictive density is an incorrect practice, because the ensemble measures the spread of the forecast instead of, following the definition of predictive uncertainty, the conditional probability of the future outcome conditional on the forecast. Only few correct approaches are reported in the literature, which correctly use the ensemble to estimate an expected conditional predictive density (Reggiani et al., 2009), similarly to what is done when several predictive models are available as in the BMA (Raftery et al., 2005) or MCP(Todini, 2008; Coccia and Todini, 2011) approaches. A major problem, limiting the correct use of ensembles, is in fact the difficulty of defining the time dependence of the ensemble members, due to the lack of a consistent ranking: in other words, when dealing with multiple models, the ith model remains the ith model regardless to the time of forecast, while this does not happen when dealing with ensemble members, since there is no definition for the ith member of an ensemble. Nonetheless, the MCP approach (Todini, 2008; Coccia and Todini, 2011), essentially based on a multiple regression in the Normal space, can be easily extended to use ensembles to represent the local (in time) smaller or larger conditional predictive uncertainty, as a function of the ensemble spread. This is done by modifying the classical linear regression equations, impliying perfectly observed predictors, to alternative regression equations similar to the Kalman filter ones, allowing for uncertain predictors. In this way, each prediction in time accounts for both the predictive

  2. Models with short- and long-range interactions: the phase diagram and the reentrant phase

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dauxois, Thierry; Lori, Leonardo; Ruffo, Stefano; De Buyl, Pierre

    2010-01-01

    We study the phase diagram of two different Hamiltonians with competing local, nearest-neighbour, and mean-field couplings. The first example corresponds to the HMF Hamiltonian with an additional short-range interaction. The second example is a reduced Hamiltonian for dipolar layered spin structures, with a new feature with respect to the first example: the presence of anisotropies. The two examples are solved in both the canonical and the microcanonical ensemble using a combination of the min–max method with the transfer operator method. The phase diagrams present typical features of systems with long-range interactions: ensemble inequivalence, negative specific heat and temperature jumps. Moreover, for a given range of parameters, we report the signature of phase reentrance. This can also be interpreted as the presence of azeotropy with the creation of two first-order phase transitions with ensemble inequivalence, as one parameter is varied continuously

  3. Efficacy and safety of talimogene laherparepvec versus granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor in patients with stage IIIB/C and IVM1a melanoma: subanalysis of the Phase III OPTiM trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harrington KJ

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Kevin J Harrington,1 Robert HI Andtbacka,2 Frances Collichio,3 Gerald Downey,4 Lisa Chen,5 Zsolt Szabo,6 Howard L Kaufman7 1The Institute of Cancer Research/The Royal Marsden Hospital NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, London, UK; 2Huntsman Cancer Institute, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA; 3Division of Hematology and Oncology, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA; 4Amgen Ltd, Cambridge, UK; 5Amgen Inc, Thousand Oaks, CA, USA; 6Amgen GmbH, Zug, Switzerland; 7Rutgers Cancer Institute of New Jersey, New Brunswick, NJ, USA Objectives: Talimogene laherparepvec is the first oncolytic immunotherapy to receive approval in Europe, the USA and Australia. In the randomized, open-label Phase III OPTiM trial (NCT00769704, talimogene laherparepvec significantly improved durable response rate (DRR versus granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor (GM-CSF in 436 patients with unresectable stage IIIB–IVM1c melanoma. The median overall survival (OS was longer versus GM-CSF in patients with earlier-stage melanoma (IIIB–IVM1a. Here, we report a detailed subgroup analysis of the OPTiM study in patients with IIIB–IVM1a disease. Patients and methods: The patients were randomized (2:1 ratio to intralesional talimogene laherparepvec or subcutaneous GM-CSF and were evaluated for DRR, overall response rate (ORR, OS, safety, benefit–risk and numbers needed to treat. Descriptive statistics were used for subgroup comparisons. Results: Among 249 evaluated patients with stage IIIB–IVM1a melanoma, DRR was higher with talimogene laherparepvec compared with GM-CSF (25.2% versus 1.2%; P<0.0001. ORR was also higher in the talimogene laherparepvec arm (40.5% versus 2.3%; P<0.0001, and 27 patients in the talimogene laherparepvec arm had a complete response, compared with none in GM-CSF-treated patients. The incidence rates of exposure-adjusted adverse events (AE and serious AEs were similar with both treatments. Conclusion

  4. Regionalization of post-processed ensemble runoff forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. O. Skøien

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available For many years, meteorological models have been run with perturbated initial conditions or parameters to produce ensemble forecasts that are used as a proxy of the uncertainty of the forecasts. However, the ensembles are usually both biased (the mean is systematically too high or too low, compared with the observed weather, and has dispersion errors (the ensemble variance indicates a too low or too high confidence in the forecast, compared with the observed weather. The ensembles are therefore commonly post-processed to correct for these shortcomings. Here we look at one of these techniques, referred to as Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS (Gneiting et al., 2005. Originally, the post-processing parameters were identified as a fixed set of parameters for a region. The application of our work is the European Flood Awareness System (http://www.efas.eu, where a distributed model is run with meteorological ensembles as input. We are therefore dealing with a considerably larger data set than previous analyses. We also want to regionalize the parameters themselves for other locations than the calibration gauges. The post-processing parameters are therefore estimated for each calibration station, but with a spatial penalty for deviations from neighbouring stations, depending on the expected semivariance between the calibration catchment and these stations. The estimated post-processed parameters can then be used for regionalization of the postprocessing parameters also for uncalibrated locations using top-kriging in the rtop-package (Skøien et al., 2006, 2014. We will show results from cross-validation of the methodology and although our interest is mainly in identifying exceedance probabilities for certain return levels, we will also show how the rtop package can be used for creating a set of post-processed ensembles through simulations.

  5. A multi-model ensemble approach to seabed mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diesing, Markus; Stephens, David

    2015-06-01

    Seabed habitat mapping based on swath acoustic data and ground-truth samples is an emergent and active marine science discipline. Significant progress could be achieved by transferring techniques and approaches that have been successfully developed and employed in such fields as terrestrial land cover mapping. One such promising approach is the multiple classifier system, which aims at improving classification performance by combining the outputs of several classifiers. Here we present results of a multi-model ensemble applied to multibeam acoustic data covering more than 5000 km2 of seabed in the North Sea with the aim to derive accurate spatial predictions of seabed substrate. A suite of six machine learning classifiers (k-Nearest Neighbour, Support Vector Machine, Classification Tree, Random Forest, Neural Network and Naïve Bayes) was trained with ground-truth sample data classified into seabed substrate classes and their prediction accuracy was assessed with an independent set of samples. The three and five best performing models were combined to classifier ensembles. Both ensembles led to increased prediction accuracy as compared to the best performing single classifier. The improvements were however not statistically significant at the 5% level. Although the three-model ensemble did not perform significantly better than its individual component models, we noticed that the five-model ensemble did perform significantly better than three of the five component models. A classifier ensemble might therefore be an effective strategy to improve classification performance. Another advantage is the fact that the agreement in predicted substrate class between the individual models of the ensemble could be used as a measure of confidence. We propose a simple and spatially explicit measure of confidence that is based on model agreement and prediction accuracy.

  6. Implementation of single qubit in QD ensembles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alegre, T.P. Mayer

    2004-01-01

    Full text: During the last decades the semiconductor industry has achieved the production of exponentially shrinking components. This fact points to fundamental limits of integration, making computation with single atoms or particles like an electron an ultimate goal. To get to this limit, quantum systems in solid state have to be manipulated in a controllable fashion. The assessment of quantum degrees of freedom for information processing may allow exponentially faster performance for certain classes of problems. The essential aspect to be explored in quantum information processing resides in the superposition of states that allows resources such as entangled states to be envisaged. The quest for the optimal system to host a quantum variable that is sufficiently isolated from the environment encompasses implementations spanning optical, atomic, molecular and solid state systems. In the solid state, a variety of proposals have come forth, each one having its own advantages and disadvantages. The main conclusion from these e efforts is that there is no decisive technology upon which quantum information devices will be built. Self-assembled quantum dots (SAQDs or QDs), can be grown with size uniformity that enables the observation of single electron loading events. They can in turn be used to controllably trap single electrons into discrete levels, atom-like, with their corresponding shells. Hund's rules and Pauli exclusion principle are observed in these nanostructures and are key in allowing and preserving a particular quantum state. Provided that one can trap one electron in a QD ensemble, the corresponding spin can be manipulated by an external magnetic field by either conventional Electron Spin Resonance (ESR) techniques or g-tensor modulation resonance (g-TMR). By analogy with Nuclear Magnetic Resonance, single qubit operations are proposed, which at some point in time should be scaled, provided that spin-spin interactions can be controlled. Read out can be

  7. Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part II: Ensemble forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

    2009-04-01

    In part I of this study, the operational flood forecasting system in Bavaria and an approach to identify and quantify forecast uncertainty was introduced. The approach is split into the calculation of an empirical 'overall error' from archived forecasts and the calculation of an empirical 'model error' based on hydrometeorological forecast tests, where rainfall observations were used instead of forecasts. The 'model error' can especially in upstream catchments where forecast uncertainty is strongly dependent on the current predictability of the atrmosphere be superimposed on the spread of a hydrometeorological ensemble forecast. In Bavaria, two meteorological ensemble prediction systems are currently tested for operational use: the 16-member COSMO-LEPS forecast and a poor man's ensemble composed of DWD GME, DWD Cosmo-EU, NCEP GFS, Aladin-Austria, MeteoSwiss Cosmo-7. The determination of the overall forecast uncertainty is dependent on the catchment characteristics: 1. Upstream catchment with high influence of weather forecast a) A hydrological ensemble forecast is calculated using each of the meteorological forecast members as forcing. b) Corresponding to the characteristics of the meteorological ensemble forecast, each resulting forecast hydrograph can be regarded as equally likely. c) The 'model error' distribution, with parameters dependent on hydrological case and lead time, is added to each forecast timestep of each ensemble member d) For each forecast timestep, the overall (i.e. over all 'model error' distribution of each ensemble member) error distribution is calculated e) From this distribution, the uncertainty range on a desired level (here: the 10% and 90% percentile) is extracted and drawn as forecast envelope. f) As the mean or median of an ensemble forecast does not necessarily exhibit meteorologically sound temporal evolution, a single hydrological forecast termed 'lead forecast' is chosen and shown in addition to the uncertainty bounds. This can be

  8. Ensemble Kalman filtering with one-step-ahead smoothing

    KAUST Repository

    Raboudi, Naila F.

    2018-01-11

    The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is widely used for sequential data assimilation. It operates as a succession of forecast and analysis steps. In realistic large-scale applications, EnKFs are implemented with small ensembles and poorly known model error statistics. This limits their representativeness of the background error covariances and, thus, their performance. This work explores the efficiency of the one-step-ahead (OSA) smoothing formulation of the Bayesian filtering problem to enhance the data assimilation performance of EnKFs. Filtering with OSA smoothing introduces an updated step with future observations, conditioning the ensemble sampling with more information. This should provide an improved background ensemble in the analysis step, which may help to mitigate the suboptimal character of EnKF-based methods. Here, the authors demonstrate the efficiency of a stochastic EnKF with OSA smoothing for state estimation. They then introduce a deterministic-like EnKF-OSA based on the singular evolutive interpolated ensemble Kalman (SEIK) filter. The authors show that the proposed SEIK-OSA outperforms both SEIK, as it efficiently exploits the data twice, and the stochastic EnKF-OSA, as it avoids observational error undersampling. They present extensive assimilation results from numerical experiments conducted with the Lorenz-96 model to demonstrate SEIK-OSA’s capabilities.

  9. Universal critical wrapping probabilities in the canonical ensemble

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hao Hu

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Universal dimensionless quantities, such as Binder ratios and wrapping probabilities, play an important role in the study of critical phenomena. We study the finite-size scaling behavior of the wrapping probability for the Potts model in the random-cluster representation, under the constraint that the total number of occupied bonds is fixed, so that the canonical ensemble applies. We derive that, in the limit L→∞, the critical values of the wrapping probability are different from those of the unconstrained model, i.e. the model in the grand-canonical ensemble, but still universal, for systems with 2yt−d>0 where yt=1/ν is the thermal renormalization exponent and d is the spatial dimension. Similar modifications apply to other dimensionless quantities, such as Binder ratios. For systems with 2yt−d≤0, these quantities share same critical universal values in the two ensembles. It is also derived that new finite-size corrections are induced. These findings apply more generally to systems in the canonical ensemble, e.g. the dilute Potts model with a fixed total number of vacancies. Finally, we formulate an efficient cluster-type algorithm for the canonical ensemble, and confirm these predictions by extensive simulations.

  10. Curve Boxplot: Generalization of Boxplot for Ensembles of Curves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirzargar, Mahsa; Whitaker, Ross T; Kirby, Robert M

    2014-12-01

    In simulation science, computational scientists often study the behavior of their simulations by repeated solutions with variations in parameters and/or boundary values or initial conditions. Through such simulation ensembles, one can try to understand or quantify the variability or uncertainty in a solution as a function of the various inputs or model assumptions. In response to a growing interest in simulation ensembles, the visualization community has developed a suite of methods for allowing users to observe and understand the properties of these ensembles in an efficient and effective manner. An important aspect of visualizing simulations is the analysis of derived features, often represented as points, surfaces, or curves. In this paper, we present a novel, nonparametric method for summarizing ensembles of 2D and 3D curves. We propose an extension of a method from descriptive statistics, data depth, to curves. We also demonstrate a set of rendering and visualization strategies for showing rank statistics of an ensemble of curves, which is a generalization of traditional whisker plots or boxplots to multidimensional curves. Results are presented for applications in neuroimaging, hurricane forecasting and fluid dynamics.

  11. Skill forecasting from different wind power ensemble prediction methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinson, Pierre; Nielsen, Henrik A; Madsen, Henrik; Kariniotakis, George

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents an investigation on alternative approaches to the providing of uncertainty estimates associated to point predictions of wind generation. Focus is given to skill forecasts in the form of prediction risk indices, aiming at giving a comprehensive signal on the expected level of forecast uncertainty. Ensemble predictions of wind generation are used as input. A proposal for the definition of prediction risk indices is given. Such skill forecasts are based on the dispersion of ensemble members for a single prediction horizon, or over a set of successive look-ahead times. It is shown on the test case of a Danish offshore wind farm how prediction risk indices may be related to several levels of forecast uncertainty (and energy imbalances). Wind power ensemble predictions are derived from the transformation of ECMWF and NCEP ensembles of meteorological variables to power, as well as by a lagged average approach alternative. The ability of risk indices calculated from the various types of ensembles forecasts to resolve among situations with different levels of uncertainty is discussed

  12. Fluctuation, stationarity, and ergodic properties of random-matrix ensembles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pandey, A.

    1979-01-01

    The properties of random-matrix ensembles and the application of such ensembles to energy-level fluctuations and strength fluctuations are discussed. The two-point correlation function for complex spectra described by the three standard Gaussian ensembles is calculated, and its essential simplicity, displayed by an elementary procedure that derives from the dominance of binary correlations. The resultant function is exact for the unitary case and a very good approximation to the orthogonal and symplectic cases. The same procedure yields the spectrum for a Gaussian orthogonal ensemble (GOE) deformed by a pairing interaction. Several extensions are given and relationships to other problems of current interest are discussed. The standard fluctuation measures are rederived for the GOE, and their extensions to the unitary and symplectic cases are given. The measures are shown to derive, for the most part, from the two-point function, and new relationships between them are established, answering some long-standing questions. Some comparisons with experimental values are also made. All the cluster functions, and therefore the fluctuation measures, are shown to be stationary and strongly ergodic, thus justifying the use of random matrices for individual spectra. Strength fluctuations in the orthogonal ensemble are also considered. The Porter-Thomas distribution in its various forms is rederived and its ergodicity is established

  13. Visualizing Confidence in Cluster-Based Ensemble Weather Forecast Analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumpf, Alexander; Tost, Bianca; Baumgart, Marlene; Riemer, Michael; Westermann, Rudiger; Rautenhaus, Marc

    2018-01-01

    In meteorology, cluster analysis is frequently used to determine representative trends in ensemble weather predictions in a selected spatio-temporal region, e.g., to reduce a set of ensemble members to simplify and improve their analysis. Identified clusters (i.e., groups of similar members), however, can be very sensitive to small changes of the selected region, so that clustering results can be misleading and bias subsequent analyses. In this article, we - a team of visualization scientists and meteorologists-deliver visual analytics solutions to analyze the sensitivity of clustering results with respect to changes of a selected region. We propose an interactive visual interface that enables simultaneous visualization of a) the variation in composition of identified clusters (i.e., their robustness), b) the variability in cluster membership for individual ensemble members, and c) the uncertainty in the spatial locations of identified trends. We demonstrate that our solution shows meteorologists how representative a clustering result is, and with respect to which changes in the selected region it becomes unstable. Furthermore, our solution helps to identify those ensemble members which stably belong to a given cluster and can thus be considered similar. In a real-world application case we show how our approach is used to analyze the clustering behavior of different regions in a forecast of "Tropical Cyclone Karl", guiding the user towards the cluster robustness information required for subsequent ensemble analysis.

  14. Estimation of water level and steam temperature using ensemble Kalman filter square root (EnKF-SR)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herlambang, T.; Mufarrikoh, Z.; Karya, D. F.; Rahmalia, D.

    2018-04-01

    The equipment unit which has the most vital role in the steam-powered electric power plant is boiler. Steam drum boiler is a tank functioning to separate fluida into has phase and liquid phase. The existence in boiler system has a vital role. The controlled variables in the steam drum boiler are water level and the steam temperature. If the water level is higher than the determined level, then the gas phase resulted will contain steam endangering the following process and making the resulted steam going to turbine get less, and the by causing damages to pipes in the boiler. On the contrary, if less than the height of determined water level, the resulted height will result in dry steam likely to endanger steam drum. Thus an error was observed between the determined. This paper studied the implementation of the Ensemble Kalman Filter Square Root (EnKF-SR) method in nonlinear model of the steam drum boiler equation. The computation to estimate the height of water level and the temperature of steam was by simulation using Matlab software. Thus an error was observed between the determined water level and the steam temperature, and that of estimated water level and steam temperature. The result of simulation by Ensemble Kalman Filter Square Root (EnKF-SR) on the nonlinear model of steam drum boiler showed that the error was less than 2%. The implementation of EnKF-SR on the steam drum boiler r model comprises of three simulations, each of which generates 200, 300 and 400 ensembles. The best simulation exhibited the error between the real condition and the estimated result, by generating 400 ensemble. The simulation in water level in order of 0.00002145 m, whereas in the steam temperature was some 0.00002121 kelvin.

  15. Do phase transitions survive binomial reducibility and thermal scaling?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moretto, L.G.; Phair, L.; Wozniak, G.J.

    1996-05-01

    First order phase transitions are described in terms of the microcanonical and canonical ensemble, with special attention to finite size effects. Difficulties in interpreting a `caloric curve` are discussed. A robust parameter indicating phase coexistence (univariance) or single phase (bivariance) is extracted for charge distributions. 9 refs., 4 figs.

  16. The Ensembl Web site: mechanics of a genome browser.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stalker, James; Gibbins, Brian; Meidl, Patrick; Smith, James; Spooner, William; Hotz, Hans-Rudolf; Cox, Antony V

    2004-05-01

    The Ensembl Web site (http://www.ensembl.org/) is the principal user interface to the data of the Ensembl project, and currently serves >500,000 pages (approximately 2.5 million hits) per week, providing access to >80 GB (gigabyte) of data to users in more than 80 countries. Built atop an open-source platform comprising Apache/mod_perl and the MySQL relational database management system, it is modular, extensible, and freely available. It is being actively reused and extended in several different projects, and has been downloaded and installed in companies and academic institutions worldwide. Here, we describe some of the technical features of the site, with particular reference to its dynamic configuration that enables it to handle disparate data from multiple species.

  17. Deviations from Wick's theorem in the canonical ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schönhammer, K.

    2017-07-01

    Wick's theorem for the expectation values of products of field operators for a system of noninteracting fermions or bosons plays an important role in the perturbative approach to the quantum many-body problem. A finite-temperature version holds in the framework of the grand canonical ensemble, but not for the canonical ensemble appropriate for systems with fixed particle number such as ultracold quantum gases in optical lattices. Here we present formulas for expectation values of products of field operators in the canonical ensemble using a method in the spirit of Gaudin's proof of Wick's theorem for the grand canonical case. The deviations from Wick's theorem are examined quantitatively for two simple models of noninteracting fermions.

  18. Evaluation of LDA Ensembles Classifiers for Brain Computer Interface

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arjona, Cristian; Pentácolo, José; Gareis, Iván; Atum, Yanina; Gentiletti, Gerardo; Acevedo, Rubén; Rufiner, Leonardo

    2011-01-01

    The Brain Computer Interface (BCI) translates brain activity into computer commands. To increase the performance of the BCI, to decode the user intentions it is necessary to get better the feature extraction and classification techniques. In this article the performance of a three linear discriminant analysis (LDA) classifiers ensemble is studied. The system based on ensemble can theoretically achieved better classification results than the individual counterpart, regarding individual classifier generation algorithm and the procedures for combine their outputs. Classic algorithms based on ensembles such as bagging and boosting are discussed here. For the application on BCI, it was concluded that the generated results using ER and AUC as performance index do not give enough information to establish which configuration is better.

  19. Adiabatic passage and ensemble control of quantum systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leghtas, Z; Sarlette, A; Rouchon, P

    2011-01-01

    This paper considers population transfer between eigenstates of a finite quantum ladder controlled by a classical electric field. Using an appropriate change of variables, we show that this setting can be set in the framework of adiabatic passage, which is known to facilitate ensemble control of quantum systems. Building on this insight, we present a mathematical proof of robustness for a control protocol-chirped pulse-practised by experimentalists to drive an ensemble of quantum systems from the ground state to the most excited state. We then propose new adiabatic control protocols using a single chirped and amplitude-shaped pulse, to robustly perform any permutation of eigenstate populations, on an ensemble of systems with unknown coupling strengths. These adiabatic control protocols are illustrated by simulations on a four-level ladder.

  20. Generation of Exotic Quantum States of a Cold Atomic Ensemble

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Stefan Lund

    Over the last decades quantum effects have become more and more controllable, leading to the implementations of various quantum information protocols. These protocols are all based on utilizing quantum correlation. In this thesis we consider how states of an atomic ensemble with such correlations...... can be created and characterized. First we consider a spin-squeezed state. This state is generated by performing quantum non-demolition measurements of the atomic population difference. We show a spectroscopically relevant noise reduction of -1.7dB, the ensemble is in a many-body entangled state...... — a nanofiber based light-atom interface. Using a dual-frequency probing method we measure and prepare an ensemble with a sub-Poissonian atom number distribution. This is a first step towards the implementation of more exotic quantum states....

  1. Optical properties of indium phosphide nanowire ensembles at various temperatures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lohn, Andrew J; Onishi, Takehiro; Kobayashi, Nobuhiko P [Baskin School of Engineering, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 (United States); Nanostructured Energy Conversion Technology and Research (NECTAR), Advanced Studies Laboratories, University of California Santa Cruz-NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA 94035 (United States)

    2010-09-03

    Ensembles that contain two types (zincblende and wurtzite) of indium phosphide nanowires grown on non-single crystalline surfaces were studied by micro-photoluminescence and micro-Raman spectroscopy at various low temperatures. The obtained spectra are discussed with the emphasis on the effects of differing lattice types, geometries, and crystallographic orientations present within an ensemble of nanowires grown on non-single crystalline surfaces. In the photoluminescence spectra, a typical Varshni dependence of band gap energy on temperature was observed for emissions from zincblende nanowires and in the high temperature regime energy transfer from excitonic transitions and band-edge transitions was identified. In contrast, the photoluminescence emissions associated with wurtzite nanowires were rather insensitive to temperature. Raman spectra were collected simultaneously from zincblende and wurtzite nanowires coexisting in an ensemble. Raman peaks of the wurtzite nanowires are interpreted as those related to the zincblende nanowires by a folding of the phonon dispersion.

  2. Optical properties of indium phosphide nanowire ensembles at various temperatures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lohn, Andrew J; Onishi, Takehiro; Kobayashi, Nobuhiko P

    2010-01-01

    Ensembles that contain two types (zincblende and wurtzite) of indium phosphide nanowires grown on non-single crystalline surfaces were studied by micro-photoluminescence and micro-Raman spectroscopy at various low temperatures. The obtained spectra are discussed with the emphasis on the effects of differing lattice types, geometries, and crystallographic orientations present within an ensemble of nanowires grown on non-single crystalline surfaces. In the photoluminescence spectra, a typical Varshni dependence of band gap energy on temperature was observed for emissions from zincblende nanowires and in the high temperature regime energy transfer from excitonic transitions and band-edge transitions was identified. In contrast, the photoluminescence emissions associated with wurtzite nanowires were rather insensitive to temperature. Raman spectra were collected simultaneously from zincblende and wurtzite nanowires coexisting in an ensemble. Raman peaks of the wurtzite nanowires are interpreted as those related to the zincblende nanowires by a folding of the phonon dispersion.

  3. Spatio-temporal behaviour of medium-range ensemble forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kipling, Zak; Primo, Cristina; Charlton-Perez, Andrew

    2010-05-01

    Using the recently-developed mean-variance of logarithms (MVL) diagram, together with the TIGGE archive of medium-range ensemble forecasts from nine different centres, we present an analysis of the spatio-temporal dynamics of their perturbations, and show how the differences between models and perturbation techniques can explain the shape of their characteristic MVL curves. We also consider the use of the MVL diagram to compare the growth of perturbations within the ensemble with the growth of the forecast error, showing that there is a much closer correspondence for some models than others. We conclude by looking at how the MVL technique might assist in selecting models for inclusion in a multi-model ensemble, and suggest an experiment to test its potential in this context.

  4. Dynamical properties for an ensemble of classical particles moving in a driven potential well with different time perturbation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costa, Diogo Ricardo da; Caldas, I.L.; Leonel, Edson D.

    2013-01-01

    We consider dynamical properties for an ensemble of classical particles confined to an infinite box of potential and containing a time-dependent potential well described by different nonlinear functions. For smooth functions, the phase space contains chaotic trajectories, periodic islands and invariant spanning curves preventing the unlimited particle diffusion along the energy axis. Average properties of the chaotic sea are characterised as a function of the control parameters and exponents describing their behaviour show no dependence on the perturbation functions. Given invariant spanning curves are present in the phase space, a sticky region was observed and show to modify locally the diffusion of the particles

  5. Efficient Kernel-Based Ensemble Gaussian Mixture Filtering

    KAUST Repository

    Liu, Bo

    2015-11-11

    We consider the Bayesian filtering problem for data assimilation following the kernel-based ensemble Gaussian-mixture filtering (EnGMF) approach introduced by Anderson and Anderson (1999). In this approach, the posterior distribution of the system state is propagated with the model using the ensemble Monte Carlo method, providing a forecast ensemble that is then used to construct a prior Gaussian-mixture (GM) based on the kernel density estimator. This results in two update steps: a Kalman filter (KF)-like update of the ensemble members and a particle filter (PF)-like update of the weights, followed by a resampling step to start a new forecast cycle. After formulating EnGMF for any observational operator, we analyze the influence of the bandwidth parameter of the kernel function on the covariance of the posterior distribution. We then focus on two aspects: i) the efficient implementation of EnGMF with (relatively) small ensembles, where we propose a new deterministic resampling strategy preserving the first two moments of the posterior GM to limit the sampling error; and ii) the analysis of the effect of the bandwidth parameter on contributions of KF and PF updates and on the weights variance. Numerical results using the Lorenz-96 model are presented to assess the behavior of EnGMF with deterministic resampling, study its sensitivity to different parameters and settings, and evaluate its performance against ensemble KFs. The proposed EnGMF approach with deterministic resampling suggests improved estimates in all tested scenarios, and is shown to require less localization and to be less sensitive to the choice of filtering parameters.

  6. Constraining a compositional flow model with flow-chemical data using an ensemble-based Kalman filter

    KAUST Repository

    Gharamti, M. E.; Kadoura, A.; Valstar, J.; Sun, S.; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2014-01-01

    Isothermal compositional flow models require coupling transient compressible flows and advective transport systems of various chemical species in subsurface porous media. Building such numerical models is quite challenging and may be subject to many sources of uncertainties because of possible incomplete representation of some geological parameters that characterize the system's processes. Advanced data assimilation methods, such as the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), can be used to calibrate these models by incorporating available data. In this work, we consider the problem of estimating reservoir permeability using information about phase pressure as well as the chemical properties of fluid components. We carry out state-parameter estimation experiments using joint and dual updating schemes in the context of the EnKF with a two-dimensional single-phase compositional flow model (CFM). Quantitative and statistical analyses are performed to evaluate and compare the performance of the assimilation schemes. Our results indicate that including chemical composition data significantly enhances the accuracy of the permeability estimates. In addition, composition data provide more information to estimate system states and parameters than do standard pressure data. The dual state-parameter estimation scheme provides about 10% more accurate permeability estimates on average than the joint scheme when implemented with the same ensemble members, at the cost of twice more forward model integrations. At similar computational cost, the dual approach becomes only beneficial after using large enough ensembles.

  7. Constraining a compositional flow model with flow-chemical data using an ensemble-based Kalman filter

    KAUST Repository

    Gharamti, M. E.

    2014-03-01

    Isothermal compositional flow models require coupling transient compressible flows and advective transport systems of various chemical species in subsurface porous media. Building such numerical models is quite challenging and may be subject to many sources of uncertainties because of possible incomplete representation of some geological parameters that characterize the system\\'s processes. Advanced data assimilation methods, such as the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), can be used to calibrate these models by incorporating available data. In this work, we consider the problem of estimating reservoir permeability using information about phase pressure as well as the chemical properties of fluid components. We carry out state-parameter estimation experiments using joint and dual updating schemes in the context of the EnKF with a two-dimensional single-phase compositional flow model (CFM). Quantitative and statistical analyses are performed to evaluate and compare the performance of the assimilation schemes. Our results indicate that including chemical composition data significantly enhances the accuracy of the permeability estimates. In addition, composition data provide more information to estimate system states and parameters than do standard pressure data. The dual state-parameter estimation scheme provides about 10% more accurate permeability estimates on average than the joint scheme when implemented with the same ensemble members, at the cost of twice more forward model integrations. At similar computational cost, the dual approach becomes only beneficial after using large enough ensembles.

  8. A Brief Tutorial on the Ensemble Kalman Filter

    OpenAIRE

    Mandel, Jan

    2009-01-01

    The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a recursive filter suitable for problems with a large number of variables, such as discretizations of partial differential equations in geophysical models. The EnKF originated as a version of the Kalman filter for large problems (essentially, the covariance matrix is replaced by the sample covariance), and it is now an important data assimilation component of ensemble forecasting. EnKF is related to the particle filter (in this context, a particle is the s...

  9. A new ensemble model for short term wind power prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Albu, Razvan-Daniel; Felea, Ioan

    2012-01-01

    As the objective of this study, a non-linear ensemble system is used to develop a new model for predicting wind speed in short-term time scale. Short-term wind power prediction becomes an extremely important field of research for the energy sector. Regardless of the recent advancements in the re-search...... of prediction models, it was observed that different models have different capabilities and also no single model is suitable under all situations. The idea behind EPS (ensemble prediction systems) is to take advantage of the unique features of each subsystem to detain diverse patterns that exist in the dataset...

  10. Breaking of ensembles of linear and nonlinear oscillators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buts, V.A.

    2016-01-01

    Some results concerning the study of the dynamics of ensembles of linear and nonlinear oscillators are stated. It is shown that, in general, a stable ensemble of linear oscillator has a limited number of oscillators. This number has been defined for some simple models. It is shown that the features of the dynamics of linear oscillators can be used for conversion of the low-frequency energy oscillations into high frequency oscillations. The dynamics of coupled nonlinear oscillators in most cases is chaotic. For such a case, it is shown that the statistical characteristics (moments) of chaotic motion can significantly reduce potential barriers that keep the particles in the capture region

  11. Reservoir History Matching Using Ensemble Kalman Filters with Anamorphosis Transforms

    KAUST Repository

    Aman, Beshir M.

    2012-12-01

    This work aims to enhance the Ensemble Kalman Filter performance by transforming the non-Gaussian state variables into Gaussian variables to be a step closer to optimality. This is done by using univariate and multivariate Box-Cox transformation. Some History matching methods such as Kalman filter, particle filter and the ensemble Kalman filter are reviewed and applied to a test case in the reservoir application. The key idea is to apply the transformation before the update step and then transform back after applying the Kalman correction. In general, the results of the multivariate method was promising, despite the fact it over-estimated some variables.

  12. Good and Bad Neighborhood Approximations for Outlier Detection Ensembles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kirner, Evelyn; Schubert, Erich; Zimek, Arthur

    2017-01-01

    Outlier detection methods have used approximate neighborhoods in filter-refinement approaches. Outlier detection ensembles have used artificially obfuscated neighborhoods to achieve diverse ensemble members. Here we argue that outlier detection models could be based on approximate neighborhoods...... in the first place, thus gaining in both efficiency and effectiveness. It depends, however, on the type of approximation, as only some seem beneficial for the task of outlier detection, while no (large) benefit can be seen for others. In particular, we argue that space-filling curves are beneficial...

  13. Ensemble system for Part-of-Speech tagging

    OpenAIRE

    Dell'Orletta, Felice

    2009-01-01

    The paper contains a description of the Felice-POS-Tagger and of its performance in Evalita 2009. Felice-POS-Tagger is an ensemble system that combines six different POS taggers. When evaluated on the official test set, the ensemble system outperforms each of the single tagger components and achieves the highest accuracy score in Evalita 2009 POS Closed Task. It is shown rst that the errors made from the dierent taggers are complementary, and then how to use this complementary behavior to the...

  14. Kohn-Sham Theory for Ground-State Ensembles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ullrich, C. A.; Kohn, W.

    2001-01-01

    An electron density distribution n(r) which can be represented by that of a single-determinant ground state of noninteracting electrons in an external potential v(r) is called pure-state v -representable (P-VR). Most physical electronic systems are P-VR. Systems which require a weighted sum of several such determinants to represent their density are called ensemble v -representable (E-VR). This paper develops formal Kohn-Sham equations for E-VR physical systems, using the appropriate coupling constant integration. It also derives local density- and generalized gradient approximations, and conditions and corrections specific to ensembles

  15. Learning to Run with Actor-Critic Ensemble

    OpenAIRE

    Huang, Zhewei; Zhou, Shuchang; Zhuang, BoEr; Zhou, Xinyu

    2017-01-01

    We introduce an Actor-Critic Ensemble(ACE) method for improving the performance of Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient(DDPG) algorithm. At inference time, our method uses a critic ensemble to select the best action from proposals of multiple actors running in parallel. By having a larger candidate set, our method can avoid actions that have fatal consequences, while staying deterministic. Using ACE, we have won the 2nd place in NIPS'17 Learning to Run competition, under the name of "Megvii-hzw...

  16. Limit Cycles and Chaos via Quasi-periodicity in Two Coupled Ensembles of Ultra-cold Atoms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patra, Aniket; Yuzbashyan, Emil; Altshuler, Boris

    We study the dynamics of two mesoscopic ensembles of ultra-cold two level atoms, which are collectively coupled to an optical cavity and are being pumped incoherently to the excited state. Whereas the time independent steady states are well understood, little is known about the time dependent ones. We explore and categorize various time dependent steady states, e.g. limit cycles and chaotic behavior. We draw a non-equilibrium phase diagram indicating different steady-state behaviors in different parts of the parameter space. We discuss the synchronization of the two ensembles in the time dependent steady states. We also show the onset of chaos via quasi-periodicity. The rich time dependent steady-state behavior, especially the existence of chaos, opens up possibilities for several engineering applications. Supported in part by the University and Louis Bevier Graduate Fellowship.

  17. Reproducing multi-model ensemble average with Ensemble-averaged Reconstructed Forcings (ERF) in regional climate modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erfanian, A.; Fomenko, L.; Wang, G.

    2016-12-01

    Multi-model ensemble (MME) average is considered the most reliable for simulating both present-day and future climates. It has been a primary reference for making conclusions in major coordinated studies i.e. IPCC Assessment Reports and CORDEX. The biases of individual models cancel out each other in MME average, enabling the ensemble mean to outperform individual members in simulating the mean climate. This enhancement however comes with tremendous computational cost, which is especially inhibiting for regional climate modeling as model uncertainties can originate from both RCMs and the driving GCMs. Here we propose the Ensemble-based Reconstructed Forcings (ERF) approach to regional climate modeling that achieves a similar level of bias reduction at a fraction of cost compared with the conventional MME approach. The new method constructs a single set of initial and boundary conditions (IBCs) by averaging the IBCs of multiple GCMs, and drives the RCM with this ensemble average of IBCs to conduct a single run. Using a regional climate model (RegCM4.3.4-CLM4.5), we tested the method over West Africa for multiple combination of (up to six) GCMs. Our results indicate that the performance of the ERF method is comparable to that of the MME average in simulating the mean climate. The bias reduction seen in ERF simulations is achieved by using more realistic IBCs in solving the system of equations underlying the RCM physics and dynamics. This endows the new method with a theoretical advantage in addition to reducing computational cost. The ERF output is an unaltered solution of the RCM as opposed to a climate state that might not be physically plausible due to the averaging of multiple solutions with the conventional MME approach. The ERF approach should be considered for use in major international efforts such as CORDEX. Key words: Multi-model ensemble, ensemble analysis, ERF, regional climate modeling

  18. General approaches in ensemble quantum computing

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    WINTEC

    application of rotating frame pulse sequences to prepare pseudopure states and to ..... these three choices for segment B of our rotating frame sequences, labelled SL-1a, SL-2a and SL-3a are shown in table 1 for different values of θ, ϕ and.

  19. Momentum distribution functions in ensembles: the inequivalence of microcannonical and canonical ensembles in a finite ultracold system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Pei; Xianlong, Gao; Li, Haibin

    2013-08-01

    It is demonstrated in many thermodynamic textbooks that the equivalence of the different ensembles is achieved in the thermodynamic limit. In this present work we discuss the inequivalence of microcanonical and canonical ensembles in a finite ultracold system at low energies. We calculate the microcanonical momentum distribution function (MDF) in a system of identical fermions (bosons). We find that the microcanonical MDF deviates from the canonical one, which is the Fermi-Dirac (Bose-Einstein) function, in a finite system at low energies where the single-particle density of states and its inverse are finite.

  20. Bidirectional Modulation of Intrinsic Excitability in Rat Prelimbic Cortex Neuronal Ensembles and Non-Ensembles after Operant Learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitaker, Leslie R; Warren, Brandon L; Venniro, Marco; Harte, Tyler C; McPherson, Kylie B; Beidel, Jennifer; Bossert, Jennifer M; Shaham, Yavin; Bonci, Antonello; Hope, Bruce T

    2017-09-06

    Learned associations between environmental stimuli and rewards drive goal-directed learning and motivated behavior. These memories are thought to be encoded by alterations within specific patterns of sparsely distributed neurons called neuronal ensembles that are activated selectively by reward-predictive stimuli. Here, we use the Fos promoter to identify strongly activated neuronal ensembles in rat prelimbic cortex (PLC) and assess altered intrinsic excitability after 10 d of operant food self-administration training (1 h/d). First, we used the Daun02 inactivation procedure in male FosLacZ-transgenic rats to ablate selectively Fos-expressing PLC neurons that were active during operant food self-administration. Selective ablation of these neurons decreased food seeking. We then used male FosGFP-transgenic rats to assess selective alterations of intrinsic excitability in Fos-expressing neuronal ensembles (FosGFP + ) that were activated during food self-administration and compared these with alterations in less activated non-ensemble neurons (FosGFP - ). Using whole-cell recordings of layer V pyramidal neurons in an ex vivo brain slice preparation, we found that operant self-administration increased excitability of FosGFP + neurons and decreased excitability of FosGFP - neurons. Increased excitability of FosGFP + neurons was driven by increased steady-state input resistance. Decreased excitability of FosGFP - neurons was driven by increased contribution of small-conductance calcium-activated potassium (SK) channels. Injections of the specific SK channel antagonist apamin into PLC increased Fos expression but had no effect on food seeking. Overall, operant learning increased intrinsic excitability of PLC Fos-expressing neuronal ensembles that play a role in food seeking but decreased intrinsic excitability of Fos - non-ensembles. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Prefrontal cortex activity plays a critical role in operant learning, but the underlying cellular mechanisms are

  1. Development of multimodel ensemble based district level medium ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    tively by computing the anomaly correlation coef- ficient between the predicted rainfall and observed rainfall. High resolution (lat./long.) gridded data ..... particularly in the prediction of intensity and mesoscale rainfall features causing inland flooding. During recent years, Ensemble. Prediction System (EPS) has emerged as ...

  2. ENSEMBLE methods to reconcile disparate national long range dispersion forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mikkelsen, T; Galmarini, S; Bianconi, R; French, S [eds.

    2003-11-01

    ENSEMBLE is a web-based decision support system for real-time exchange and evaluation of national long-range dispersion forecasts of nuclear releases with cross-boundary consequences. The system is developed with the purpose to reconcile among disparate national forecasts for long-range dispersion. ENSEMBLE addresses the problem of achieving a common coherent strategy across European national emergency management when national long-range dispersion forecasts differ from one another during an accidental atmospheric release of radioactive material. A series of new decision-making 'ENSEMBLE' procedures and Web-based software evaluation and exchange tools have been created for real-time reconciliation and harmonisation of real-time dispersion forecasts from meteorological and emergency centres across Europe during an accident. The new ENSEMBLE software tools is available to participating national emergency and meteorological forecasting centres, which may choose to integrate them directly into operational emergency information systems, or possibly use them as a basis for future system development. (au)

  3. Korean Percussion Ensemble ("Samulnori") in the General Music Classroom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Sangmi; Yoo, Hyesoo

    2016-01-01

    This article introduces "samulnori" (Korean percussion ensemble), its cultural background, and instructional methods as parts of a classroom approach to teaching upper-level general music. We introduce five of eight sections from "youngnam nong-ak" (a style of samulnori) as a repertoire for teaching Korean percussion music to…

  4. Inhomogeneous ensembles of radical pairs in chemical compasses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Procopio, Maria; Ritz, Thorsten

    2016-11-01

    The biophysical basis for the ability of animals to detect the geomagnetic field and to use it for finding directions remains a mystery of sensory biology. One much debated hypothesis suggests that an ensemble of specialized light-induced radical pair reactions can provide the primary signal for a magnetic compass sensor. The question arises what features of such a radical pair ensemble could be optimized by evolution so as to improve the detection of the direction of weak magnetic fields. Here, we focus on the overlooked aspect of the noise arising from inhomogeneity of copies of biomolecules in a realistic biological environment. Such inhomogeneity leads to variations of the radical pair parameters, thereby deteriorating the signal arising from an ensemble and providing a source of noise. We investigate the effect of variations in hyperfine interactions between different copies of simple radical pairs on the directional response of a compass system. We find that the choice of radical pair parameters greatly influences how strongly the directional response of an ensemble is affected by inhomogeneity.

  5. ENSEMBLE methods to reconcile disparate national long range dispersion forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mikkelsen, T.; Galmarini, S.; Bianconi, R.; French, S. (eds.)

    2003-11-01

    ENSEMBLE is a web-based decision support system for real-time exchange and evaluation of national long-range dispersion forecasts of nuclear releases with cross-boundary consequences. The system is developed with the purpose to reconcile among disparate national forecasts for long-range dispersion. ENSEMBLE addresses the problem of achieving a common coherent strategy across European national emergency management when national long-range dispersion forecasts differ from one another during an accidental atmospheric release of radioactive material. A series of new decision-making 'ENSEMBLE' procedures and Web-based software evaluation and exchange tools have been created for real-time reconciliation and harmonisation of real-time dispersion forecasts from meteorological and emergency centres across Europe during an accident. The new ENSEMBLE software tools is available to participating national emergency and meteorological forecasting centres, which may choose to integrate them directly into operational emergency information systems, or possibly use them as a basis for future system development. (au)

  6. Power to Detect Intervention Effects on Ensembles of Social Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sweet, Tracy M.; Junker, Brian W.

    2016-01-01

    The hierarchical network model (HNM) is a framework introduced by Sweet, Thomas, and Junker for modeling interventions and other covariate effects on ensembles of social networks, such as what would be found in randomized controlled trials in education research. In this article, we develop calculations for the power to detect an intervention…

  7. Music Ensemble Participation: Personality Traits and Music Experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torrance, Tracy A.; Bugos, Jennifer A.

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this study was two-fold: (1) to examine the relationship between personality type and ensemble choice and (2) to examine the differences in personality across age and music experience in young adults. Participants (N = 137; 68 instrumentalists, 69 vocalists) completed a demographic survey and the Big Five Personality Inventory.…

  8. Enhancing COSMO-DE ensemble forecasts by inexpensive techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zied Ben Bouallègue

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available COSMO-DE-EPS, a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system based on the high-resolution numerical weather prediction model COSMO-DE, is pre-operational since December 2010, providing probabilistic forecasts which cover Germany. This ensemble system comprises 20 members based on variations of the lateral boundary conditions, the physics parameterizations and the initial conditions. In order to increase the sample size in a computationally inexpensive way, COSMO-DE-EPS is combined with alternative ensemble techniques: the neighborhood method and the time-lagged approach. Their impact on the quality of the resulting probabilistic forecasts is assessed. Objective verification is performed over a six months period, scores based on the Brier score and its decomposition are shown for June 2011. The combination of the ensemble system with the alternative approaches improves probabilistic forecasts of precipitation in particular for high precipitation thresholds. Moreover, combining COSMO-DE-EPS with only the time-lagged approach improves the skill of area probabilities for precipitation and does not deteriorate the skill of 2 m-temperature and wind gusts forecasts.

  9. Modelling of drug release from ensembles of aspirin microcapsules ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Purpose: In order to determine the drug release profile of an ensemble of aspirin crystals or microcapsules from its particle distribution a mathematical model that considered the individual release characteristics of the component single particles was developed. The model assumed that under sink conditions the release ...

  10. Cavity quantum electrodynamics with a Rydberg-blocked atomic ensemble

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guerlin, Christine; Brion, Etienne; Esslinger, Tilman

    2010-01-01

    The realization of a Jaynes-Cummings model in the optical domain is proposed for an atomic ensemble. The scheme exploits the collective coupling of the atoms to a quantized cavity mode and the nonlinearity introduced by coupling to high-lying Rydberg states. A two-photon transition resonantly cou...

  11. Random walk loop soups and conformal loop ensembles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van de Brug, T.; Camia, F.; Lis, M.

    2016-01-01

    The random walk loop soup is a Poissonian ensemble of lattice loops; it has been extensively studied because of its connections to the discrete Gaussian free field, but was originally introduced by Lawler and Trujillo Ferreras as a discrete version of the Brownian loop soup of Lawler and Werner, a

  12. Impact of hybrid GSI analysis using ETR ensembles

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Impact of hybrid GSI analysis using ETR ensembles. V S Prasad∗ and C J .... In this study, impact of hybrid ..... of water between vapour, clouds and ice (Damrath et al. 2000). ... flooding – June 2013; Weather and Climate Extremes 4. 22–34.

  13. Path planning in uncertain flow fields using ensemble method

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Tong

    2016-08-20

    An ensemble-based approach is developed to conduct optimal path planning in unsteady ocean currents under uncertainty. We focus our attention on two-dimensional steady and unsteady uncertain flows, and adopt a sampling methodology that is well suited to operational forecasts, where an ensemble of deterministic predictions is used to model and quantify uncertainty. In an operational setting, much about dynamics, topography, and forcing of the ocean environment is uncertain. To address this uncertainty, the flow field is parametrized using a finite number of independent canonical random variables with known densities, and the ensemble is generated by sampling these variables. For each of the resulting realizations of the uncertain current field, we predict the path that minimizes the travel time by solving a boundary value problem (BVP), based on the Pontryagin maximum principle. A family of backward-in-time trajectories starting at the end position is used to generate suitable initial values for the BVP solver. This allows us to examine and analyze the performance of the sampling strategy and to develop insight into extensions dealing with general circulation ocean models. In particular, the ensemble method enables us to perform a statistical analysis of travel times and consequently develop a path planning approach that accounts for these statistics. The proposed methodology is tested for a number of scenarios. We first validate our algorithms by reproducing simple canonical solutions, and then demonstrate our approach in more complex flow fields, including idealized, steady and unsteady double-gyre flows.

  14. Stacking Ensemble Learning for Short-Term Electricity Consumption Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Federico Divina

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The ability to predict short-term electric energy demand would provide several benefits, both at the economic and environmental level. For example, it would allow for an efficient use of resources in order to face the actual demand, reducing the costs associated to the production as well as the emission of CO 2 . To this aim, in this paper we propose a strategy based on ensemble learning in order to tackle the short-term load forecasting problem. In particular, our approach is based on a stacking ensemble learning scheme, where the predictions produced by three base learning methods are used by a top level method in order to produce final predictions. We tested the proposed scheme on a dataset reporting the energy consumption in Spain over more than nine years. The obtained experimental results show that an approach for short-term electricity consumption forecasting based on ensemble learning can help in combining predictions produced by weaker learning methods in order to obtain superior results. In particular, the system produces a lower error with respect to the existing state-of-the art techniques used on the same dataset. More importantly, this case study has shown that using an ensemble scheme can achieve very accurate predictions, and thus that it is a suitable approach for addressing the short-term load forecasting problem.

  15. The National Solo and Ensemble Contest 1929-1937

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyers, Brian D.

    2012-01-01

    This study is the first investigation of the nine-year history of the National Solo and Ensemble Contests, held in the United States in conjunction with the National School Band and Orchestra Contests of the late 1920s and early to mid-1930s. Primary sources used include letters from those involved with the planning of the contests, meeting…

  16. An ensemble approach to the evolution of complex systems

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2014-03-15

    Mar 15, 2014 ... [Arpağ G and Erzan A 2014 An ensemble approach to the evolution of complex systems. J. Biosci. ... almost nothing about all the different ways in which your ...... energy cost to the organism of the maintenance, replication,.

  17. Exploiting ensemble learning for automatic cataract detection and grading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Ji-Jiang; Li, Jianqiang; Shen, Ruifang; Zeng, Yang; He, Jian; Bi, Jing; Li, Yong; Zhang, Qinyan; Peng, Lihui; Wang, Qing

    2016-02-01

    Cataract is defined as a lenticular opacity presenting usually with poor visual acuity. It is one of the most common causes of visual impairment worldwide. Early diagnosis demands the expertise of trained healthcare professionals, which may present a barrier to early intervention due to underlying costs. To date, studies reported in the literature utilize a single learning model for retinal image classification in grading cataract severity. We present an ensemble learning based approach as a means to improving diagnostic accuracy. Three independent feature sets, i.e., wavelet-, sketch-, and texture-based features, are extracted from each fundus image. For each feature set, two base learning models, i.e., Support Vector Machine and Back Propagation Neural Network, are built. Then, the ensemble methods, majority voting and stacking, are investigated to combine the multiple base learning models for final fundus image classification. Empirical experiments are conducted for cataract detection (two-class task, i.e., cataract or non-cataractous) and cataract grading (four-class task, i.e., non-cataractous, mild, moderate or severe) tasks. The best performance of the ensemble classifier is 93.2% and 84.5% in terms of the correct classification rates for cataract detection and grading tasks, respectively. The results demonstrate that the ensemble classifier outperforms the single learning model significantly, which also illustrates the effectiveness of the proposed approach. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Reliability of windstorm predictions in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, Nico; Ulbrich, Uwe

    2016-04-01

    Windstorms caused by extratropical cyclones are one of the most dangerous natural hazards in the European region. Therefore, reliable predictions of such storm events are needed. Case studies have shown that ensemble prediction systems (EPS) are able to provide useful information about windstorms between two and five days prior to the event. In this work, ensemble predictions with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) EPS are evaluated in a four year period. Within the 50 ensemble members, which are initialized every 12 hours and are run for 10 days, windstorms are identified and tracked in time and space. By using a clustering approach, different predictions of the same storm are identified in the different ensemble members and compared to reanalysis data. The occurrence probability of the predicted storms is estimated by fitting a bivariate normal distribution to the storm track positions. Our results show, for example, that predicted storm clusters with occurrence probabilities of more than 50% have a matching observed storm in 80% of all cases at a lead time of two days. The predicted occurrence probabilities are reliable up to 3 days lead time. At longer lead times the occurrence probabilities are overestimated by the EPS.

  19. Social behaviour shapes hypothalamic neural ensemble representations of conspecific sex

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remedios, Ryan; Kennedy, Ann; Zelikowsky, Moriel; Grewe, Benjamin F.; Schnitzer, Mark J.; Anderson, David J.

    2017-10-01

    All animals possess a repertoire of innate (or instinctive) behaviours, which can be performed without training. Whether such behaviours are mediated by anatomically distinct and/or genetically specified neural pathways remains unknown. Here we report that neural representations within the mouse hypothalamus, that underlie innate social behaviours, are shaped by social experience. Oestrogen receptor 1-expressing (Esr1+) neurons in the ventrolateral subdivision of the ventromedial hypothalamus (VMHvl) control mating and fighting in rodents. We used microendoscopy to image Esr1+ neuronal activity in the VMHvl of male mice engaged in these social behaviours. In sexually and socially experienced adult males, divergent and characteristic neural ensembles represented male versus female conspecifics. However, in inexperienced adult males, male and female intruders activated overlapping neuronal populations. Sex-specific neuronal ensembles gradually separated as the mice acquired social and sexual experience. In mice permitted to investigate but not to mount or attack conspecifics, ensemble divergence did not occur. However, 30 minutes of sexual experience with a female was sufficient to promote the separation of male and female ensembles and to induce an attack response 24 h later. These observations uncover an unexpected social experience-dependent component to the formation of hypothalamic neural assemblies controlling innate social behaviours. More generally, they reveal plasticity and dynamic coding in an evolutionarily ancient deep subcortical structure that is traditionally viewed as a ‘hard-wired’ system.

  20. Influence of horizontal resolution and ensemble size on model performance

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Dalton, A

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Conference of South African Society for Atmospheric Sciences (SASAS), Potchefstroom, 1-2 October 2014 Influence of horizontal resolution and ensemble size on model performance Amaris Dalton*¹, Willem A. Landman ¹ʾ² ¹Departmen of Geography, Geo...

  1. Efficient Kernel-Based Ensemble Gaussian Mixture Filtering

    KAUST Repository

    Liu, Bo; Ait-El-Fquih, Boujemaa; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2015-01-01

    (KF)-like update of the ensemble members and a particle filter (PF)-like update of the weights, followed by a resampling step to start a new forecast cycle. After formulating EnGMF for any observational operator, we analyze the influence

  2. Bayesian model ensembling using meta-trained recurrent neural networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ambrogioni, L.; Berezutskaya, Y.; Gü ç lü , U.; Borne, E.W.P. van den; Gü ç lü tü rk, Y.; Gerven, M.A.J. van; Maris, E.G.G.

    2017-01-01

    In this paper we demonstrate that a recurrent neural network meta-trained on an ensemble of arbitrary classification tasks can be used as an approximation of the Bayes optimal classifier. This result is obtained by relying on the framework of e-free approximate Bayesian inference, where the Bayesian

  3. Short-term ensemble radar rainfall forecasts for hydrological applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Codo de Oliveira, M.; Rico-Ramirez, M. A.

    2016-12-01

    Flooding is a very common natural disaster around the world, putting local population and economy at risk. Forecasting floods several hours ahead and issuing warnings are of main importance to permit proper response in emergency situations. However, it is important to know the uncertainties related to the rainfall forecasting in order to produce more reliable forecasts. Nowcasting models (short-term rainfall forecasts) are able to produce high spatial and temporal resolution predictions that are useful in hydrological applications. Nonetheless, they are subject to uncertainties mainly due to the nowcasting model used, errors in radar rainfall estimation, temporal development of the velocity field and to the fact that precipitation processes such as growth and decay are not taken into account. In this study an ensemble generation scheme using rain gauge data as a reference to estimate radars errors is used to produce forecasts with up to 3h lead-time. The ensembles try to assess in a realistic way the residual uncertainties that remain even after correction algorithms are applied in the radar data. The ensembles produced are compered to a stochastic ensemble generator. Furthermore, the rainfall forecast output was used as an input in a hydrodynamic sewer network model and also in hydrological model for catchments of different sizes in north England. A comparative analysis was carried of how was carried out to assess how the radar uncertainties propagate into these models. The first named author is grateful to CAPES - Ciencia sem Fronteiras for funding this PhD research.

  4. Measures of trajectory ensemble disparity in nonequilibrium statistical dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crooks, Gavin E; Sivak, David A

    2011-01-01

    Many interesting divergence measures between conjugate ensembles of nonequilibrium trajectories can be experimentally determined from the work distribution of the process. Herein, we review the statistical and physical significance of several of these measures, in particular the relative entropy (dissipation), Jeffreys divergence (hysteresis), Jensen–Shannon divergence (time-asymmetry), Chernoff divergence (work cumulant generating function), and Rényi divergence

  5. Ensemble modeling for aromatic production in Escherichia coli.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew L Rizk

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Ensemble Modeling (EM is a recently developed method for metabolic modeling, particularly for utilizing the effect of enzyme tuning data on the production of a specific compound to refine the model. This approach is used here to investigate the production of aromatic products in Escherichia coli. Instead of using dynamic metabolite data to fit a model, the EM approach uses phenotypic data (effects of enzyme overexpression or knockouts on the steady state production rate to screen possible models. These data are routinely generated during strain design. An ensemble of models is constructed that all reach the same steady state and are based on the same mechanistic framework at the elementary reaction level. The behavior of the models spans the kinetics allowable by thermodynamics. Then by using existing data from the literature for the overexpression of genes coding for transketolase (Tkt, transaldolase (Tal, and phosphoenolpyruvate synthase (Pps to screen the ensemble, we arrive at a set of models that properly describes the known enzyme overexpression phenotypes. This subset of models becomes more predictive as additional data are used to refine the models. The final ensemble of models demonstrates the characteristic of the cell that Tkt is the first rate controlling step, and correctly predicts that only after Tkt is overexpressed does an increase in Pps increase the production rate of aromatics. This work demonstrates that EM is able to capture the result of enzyme overexpression on aromatic producing bacteria by successfully utilizing routinely generated enzyme tuning data to guide model learning.

  6. Canonical Ensemble Model for Black Hole Horizon of Schwarzschild ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Abstract. In this paper, we use the canonical ensemble model to discuss the radiation of a Schwarzschild–de Sitter black hole on the black hole horizon. Using this model, we calculate the probability distribution from function of the emission shell. And the statistical meaning which compare with the distribution function is ...

  7. Improving wave forecasting by integrating ensemble modelling and machine learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donncha, F.; Zhang, Y.; James, S. C.

    2017-12-01

    Modern smart-grid networks use technologies to instantly relay information on supply and demand to support effective decision making. Integration of renewable-energy resources with these systems demands accurate forecasting of energy production (and demand) capacities. For wave-energy converters, this requires wave-condition forecasting to enable estimates of energy production. Current operational wave forecasting systems exhibit substantial errors with wave-height RMSEs of 40 to 60 cm being typical, which limits the reliability of energy-generation predictions thereby impeding integration with the distribution grid. In this study, we integrate physics-based models with statistical learning aggregation techniques that combine forecasts from multiple, independent models into a single "best-estimate" prediction of the true state. The Simulating Waves Nearshore physics-based model is used to compute wind- and currents-augmented waves in the Monterey Bay area. Ensembles are developed based on multiple simulations perturbing input data (wave characteristics supplied at the model boundaries and winds) to the model. A learning-aggregation technique uses past observations and past model forecasts to calculate a weight for each model. The aggregated forecasts are compared to observation data to quantify the performance of the model ensemble and aggregation techniques. The appropriately weighted ensemble model outperforms an individual ensemble member with regard to forecasting wave conditions.

  8. Tweet-based Target Market Classification Using Ensemble Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Adi Khairul Anshary

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Target market classification is aimed at focusing marketing activities on the right targets. Classification of target markets can be done through data mining and by utilizing data from social media, e.g. Twitter. The end result of data mining are learning models that can classify new data. Ensemble methods can improve the accuracy of the models and therefore provide better results. In this study, classification of target markets was conducted on a dataset of 3000 tweets in order to extract features. Classification models were constructed to manipulate the training data using two ensemble methods (bagging and boosting. To investigate the effectiveness of the ensemble methods, this study used the CART (classification and regression tree algorithm for comparison. Three categories of consumer goods (computers, mobile phones and cameras and three categories of sentiments (positive, negative and neutral were classified towards three target-market categories. Machine learning was performed using Weka 3.6.9. The results of the test data showed that the bagging method improved the accuracy of CART with 1.9% (to 85.20%. On the other hand, for sentiment classification, the ensemble methods were not successful in increasing the accuracy of CART. The results of this study may be taken into consideration by companies who approach their customers through social media, especially Twitter.

  9. A grand-canonical ensemble of randomly triangulated surfaces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jurkiewicz, J.; Krzywicki, A.; Petersson, B.

    1986-01-01

    An algorithm is presented generating the grand-canonical ensemble of discrete, randomly triangulated Polyakov surfaces. The algorithm is used to calculate the susceptibility exponent, which controls the existence of the continuum limit of the considered model, for the dimensionality of the embedding space ranging from 0 to 20. (orig.)

  10. Middle School Drum Ensemble: An Unlikely Experience in Classroom Democracy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbre, James

    2013-01-01

    Though music has a long and successful history within education, it is often one of the first sacrificial lambs when school budgets tighten. Over the course of an academic year, a documentary film sought to tell the story of an American middle school drum ensemble. The context of this group provided an ideal way to examine the nature of student…

  11. Peer-Teaching in the Secondary Music Ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Erik

    2015-01-01

    Peer-teaching is an instructional technique that has been used by teachers world-wide to successfully engage, exercise and deepen student learning. Yet, in some instances, teachers find the application of peer-teaching in large music ensembles at the secondary level to be daunting. This article is meant to be a practical resource for secondary…

  12. Light localization in cold and dense atomic ensemble

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sokolov, Igor

    2017-01-01

    We report on results of theoretical analysis of possibilities of light strong (Anderson) localization in a cold atomic ensemble. We predict appearance of localization in dense atomic systems in strong magnetic field. We prove that in absence of the field the light localization is impossible. (paper)

  13. The egg model - a geological ensemble for reservoir simulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jansen, J.D.; Fonseca, R.M.; Kahrobaei, S.; Siraj, M.M.; Essen, van G.M.; Hof, Van den P.M.J.

    2014-01-01

    The ‘Egg Model’ is a synthetic reservoir model consisting of an ensemble of 101 relatively small three-dimensional realizations of a channelized oil reservoir produced under water flooding conditions with eight water injectors and four oil producers. It has been used in numerous publications to

  14. Precision bounds for gradient magnetometry with atomic ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apellaniz, Iagoba; Urizar-Lanz, Iñigo; Zimborás, Zoltán; Hyllus, Philipp; Tóth, Géza

    2018-05-01

    We study gradient magnetometry with an ensemble of atoms with arbitrary spin. We calculate precision bounds for estimating the gradient of the magnetic field based on the quantum Fisher information. For quantum states that are invariant under homogeneous magnetic fields, we need to measure a single observable to estimate the gradient. On the other hand, for states that are sensitive to homogeneous fields, a simultaneous measurement is needed, as the homogeneous field must also be estimated. We prove that for the cases studied in this paper, such a measurement is feasible. We present a method to calculate precision bounds for gradient estimation with a chain of atoms or with two spatially separated atomic ensembles. We also consider a single atomic ensemble with an arbitrary density profile, where the atoms cannot be addressed individually, and which is a very relevant case for experiments. Our model can take into account even correlations between particle positions. While in most of the discussion we consider an ensemble of localized particles that are classical with respect to their spatial degree of freedom, we also discuss the case of gradient metrology with a single Bose-Einstein condensate.

  15. Random matrix ensembles with random interactions: Results for ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    ... Public Lectures · Lecture Workshops · Refresher Courses · Symposia · Live Streaming. Home; Journals; Pramana – Journal of Physics; Volume 73; Issue 3. Random matrix ensembles with random interactions: Results for EGUE(2)-(4). Manan Vyas Manan Vyas. Volume 73 Issue 3 September 2009 pp 521-531 ...

  16. An Ensemble Approach in Converging Contents of LMS and KMS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabitha, A. Sai; Mehrotra, Deepti; Bansal, Abhay

    2017-01-01

    Currently the challenges in e-Learning are converging the learning content from various sources and managing them within e-learning practices. Data mining learning algorithms can be used and the contents can be converged based on the Metadata of the objects. Ensemble methods use multiple learning algorithms and it can be used to converge the…

  17. Fire spread estimation on forest wildfire using ensemble kalman filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syarifah, Wardatus; Apriliani, Erna

    2018-04-01

    Wildfire is one of the most frequent disasters in the world, for example forest wildfire, causing population of forest decrease. Forest wildfire, whether naturally occurring or prescribed, are potential risks for ecosystems and human settlements. These risks can be managed by monitoring the weather, prescribing fires to limit available fuel, and creating firebreaks. With computer simulations we can predict and explore how fires may spread. The model of fire spread on forest wildfire was established to determine the fire properties. The fire spread model is prepared based on the equation of the diffusion reaction model. There are many methods to estimate the spread of fire. The Kalman Filter Ensemble Method is a modified estimation method of the Kalman Filter algorithm that can be used to estimate linear and non-linear system models. In this research will apply Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method to estimate the spread of fire on forest wildfire. Before applying the EnKF method, the fire spread model will be discreted using finite difference method. At the end, the analysis obtained illustrated by numerical simulation using software. The simulation results show that the Ensemble Kalman Filter method is closer to the system model when the ensemble value is greater, while the covariance value of the system model and the smaller the measurement.

  18. Realization of Deutsch-like algorithm using ensemble computing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wei Daxiu; Luo Jun; Sun Xianping; Zeng Xizhi

    2003-01-01

    The Deutsch-like algorithm [Phys. Rev. A. 63 (2001) 034101] distinguishes between even and odd query functions using fewer function calls than its possible classical counterpart in a two-qubit system. But the similar method cannot be applied to a multi-qubit system. We propose a new approach for solving Deutsch-like problem using ensemble computing. The proposed algorithm needs an ancillary qubit and can be easily extended to multi-qubit system with one query. Our ensemble algorithm beginning with a easily-prepared initial state has three main steps. The classifications of the functions can be obtained directly from the spectra of the ancilla qubit. We also demonstrate the new algorithm in a four-qubit molecular system using nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR). One hydrogen and three carbons are selected as the four qubits, and one of carbons is ancilla qubit. We choice two unitary transformations, corresponding to two functions (one odd function and one even function), to validate the ensemble algorithm. The results show that our experiment is successfully and our ensemble algorithm for solving the Deutsch-like problem is virtual

  19. An ensemble based nonlinear orthogonal matching pursuit algorithm for sparse history matching of reservoir models

    KAUST Repository

    Fsheikh, Ahmed H.; Wheeler, Mary Fanett; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2013-01-01

    the dictionary, the solution is obtained by applying Tikhonov regularization. The proposed algorithm relies on approximate gradient estimation using an iterative stochastic ensemble method (ISEM). ISEM utilizes an ensemble of directional derivatives

  20. Skill prediction of local weather forecasts based on the ECMWF ensemble

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Ziehmann

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available Ensemble Prediction has become an essential part of numerical weather forecasting. In this paper we investigate the ability of ensemble forecasts to provide an a priori estimate of the expected forecast skill. Several quantities derived from the local ensemble distribution are investigated for a two year data set of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF temperature and wind speed ensemble forecasts at 30 German stations. The results indicate that the population of the ensemble mode provides useful information for the uncertainty in temperature forecasts. The ensemble entropy is a similar good measure. This is not true for the spread if it is simply calculated as the variance of the ensemble members with respect to the ensemble mean. The number of clusters in the C regions is almost unrelated to the local skill. For wind forecasts, the results are less promising.

  1. A Fuzzy Integral Ensemble Method in Visual P300 Brain-Computer Interface

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesco Cavrini

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We evaluate the possibility of application of combination of classifiers using fuzzy measures and integrals to Brain-Computer Interface (BCI based on electroencephalography. In particular, we present an ensemble method that can be applied to a variety of systems and evaluate it in the context of a visual P300-based BCI. Offline analysis of data relative to 5 subjects lets us argue that the proposed classification strategy is suitable for BCI. Indeed, the achieved performance is significantly greater than the average of the base classifiers and, broadly speaking, similar to that of the best one. Thus the proposed methodology allows realizing systems that can be used by different subjects without the need for a preliminary configuration phase in which the best classifier for each user has to be identified. Moreover, the ensemble is often capable of detecting uncertain situations and turning them from misclassifications into abstentions, thereby improving the level of safety in BCI for environmental or device control.

  2. Modified ensemble Kalman filter for nuclear accident atmospheric dispersion: prediction improved and source estimated.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, X L; Su, G F; Yuan, H Y; Chen, J G; Huang, Q Y

    2014-09-15

    Atmospheric dispersion models play an important role in nuclear power plant accident management. A reliable estimation of radioactive material distribution in short range (about 50 km) is in urgent need for population sheltering and evacuation planning. However, the meteorological data and the source term which greatly influence the accuracy of the atmospheric dispersion models are usually poorly known at the early phase of the emergency. In this study, a modified ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation method in conjunction with a Lagrangian puff-model is proposed to simultaneously improve the model prediction and reconstruct the source terms for short range atmospheric dispersion using the off-site environmental monitoring data. Four main uncertainty parameters are considered: source release rate, plume rise height, wind speed and wind direction. Twin experiments show that the method effectively improves the predicted concentration distribution, and the temporal profiles of source release rate and plume rise height are also successfully reconstructed. Moreover, the time lag in the response of ensemble Kalman filter is shortened. The method proposed here can be a useful tool not only in the nuclear power plant accident emergency management but also in other similar situation where hazardous material is released into the atmosphere. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Superradiant cascade emissions in an atomic ensemble via four-wave mixing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jen, H.H., E-mail: sappyjen@gmail.com

    2015-09-15

    We investigate superradiant cascade emissions from an atomic ensemble driven by two-color classical fields. The correlated pair of photons (signal and idler) is generated by adiabatically driving the system with large-detuned light fields via four-wave mixing. The signal photon from the upper transition of the diamond-type atomic levels is followed by the idler one which can be superradiant due to light-induced dipole–dipole interactions. We then calculate the cooperative Lamb shift (CLS) of the idler photon, which is a cumulative effect of interaction energy. We study its dependence on a cylindrical geometry, a conventional setup in cold atom experiments, and estimate the maximum CLS which can be significant and observable. Manipulating the CLS of cascade emissions enables frequency qubits that provide alternative robust elements in quantum network. - Highlights: • Superradiance from a cascade atomic transition. • Correlated photon pair generation via four-wave mixing. • Dynamical light–matter couplings in a phased symmetrical state. • Cooperative Lamb shift in a cylindrical atomic ensemble.

  4. Kinetics and dynamics of near-resonant vibrational energy transfer in gas ensembles of atmospheric interest

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCaffery, Anthony J.

    2018-03-01

    This study of near-resonant, vibration-vibration (V-V) gas-phase energy transfer in diatomic molecules uses the theoretical/computational method, of Marsh & McCaffery (Marsh & McCaffery 2002 J. Chem. Phys. 117, 503 (doi:10.1063/1.1489998)) The method uses the angular momentum (AM) theoretical formalism to compute quantum-state populations within the component molecules of large, non-equilibrium, gas mixtures as the component species proceed to equilibration. Computed quantum-state populations are displayed in a number of formats that reveal the detailed mechanism of the near-resonant V-V process. Further, the evolution of quantum-state populations, for each species present, may be followed as the number of collision cycles increases, displaying the kinetics of evolution for each quantum state of the ensemble's molecules. These features are illustrated for ensembles containing vibrationally excited N2 in H2, O2 and N2 initially in their ground states. This article is part of the theme issue `Modern theoretical chemistry'.

  5. REAL - Ensemble radar precipitation estimation for hydrology in a mountainous region

    OpenAIRE

    Germann, Urs; Berenguer Ferrer, Marc; Sempere Torres, Daniel; Zappa, Massimiliano

    2009-01-01

    An elegant solution to characterise the residual errors in radar precipitation estimates is to generate an ensemble of precipitation fields. The paper proposes a radar ensemble generator designed for usage in the Alps using LU decomposition (REAL), and presents first results from a real-time implementation coupling the radar ensemble with a semi-distributed rainfall–runoff model for flash flood modelling in a steep Alpine catchment. Each member of the radar ensemble is a possible realisati...

  6. Ensemble models of neutrophil trafficking in severe sepsis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sang Ok Song

    Full Text Available A hallmark of severe sepsis is systemic inflammation which activates leukocytes and can result in their misdirection. This leads to both impaired migration to the locus of infection and increased infiltration into healthy tissues. In order to better understand the pathophysiologic mechanisms involved, we developed a coarse-grained phenomenological model of the acute inflammatory response in CLP (cecal ligation and puncture-induced sepsis in rats. This model incorporates distinct neutrophil kinetic responses to the inflammatory stimulus and the dynamic interactions between components of a compartmentalized inflammatory response. Ensembles of model parameter sets consistent with experimental observations were statistically generated using a Markov-Chain Monte Carlo sampling. Prediction uncertainty in the model states was quantified over the resulting ensemble parameter sets. Forward simulation of the parameter ensembles successfully captured experimental features and predicted that systemically activated circulating neutrophils display impaired migration to the tissue and neutrophil sequestration in the lung, consequently contributing to tissue damage and mortality. Principal component and multiple regression analyses of the parameter ensembles estimated from survivor and non-survivor cohorts provide insight into pathologic mechanisms dictating outcome in sepsis. Furthermore, the model was extended to incorporate hypothetical mechanisms by which immune modulation using extracorporeal blood purification results in improved outcome in septic rats. Simulations identified a sub-population (about 18% of the treated population that benefited from blood purification. Survivors displayed enhanced neutrophil migration to tissue and reduced sequestration of lung neutrophils, contributing to improved outcome. The model ensemble presented herein provides a platform for generating and testing hypotheses in silico, as well as motivating further experimental

  7. Online probabilistic learning with an ensemble of forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorey, Jean; Mallet, Vivien; Chaussin, Christophe

    2016-04-01

    Our objective is to produce a calibrated weighted ensemble to forecast a univariate time series. In addition to a meteorological ensemble of forecasts, we rely on observations or analyses of the target variable. The celebrated Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) is used to evaluate the probabilistic forecasts. However applying the CRPS on weighted empirical distribution functions (deriving from the weighted ensemble) may introduce a bias because of which minimizing the CRPS does not produce the optimal weights. Thus we propose an unbiased version of the CRPS which relies on clusters of members and is strictly proper. We adapt online learning methods for the minimization of the CRPS. These methods generate the weights associated to the members in the forecasted empirical distribution function. The weights are updated before each forecast step using only past observations and forecasts. Our learning algorithms provide the theoretical guarantee that, in the long run, the CRPS of the weighted forecasts is at least as good as the CRPS of any weighted ensemble with weights constant in time. In particular, the performance of our forecast is better than that of any subset ensemble with uniform weights. A noteworthy advantage of our algorithm is that it does not require any assumption on the distributions of the observations and forecasts, both for the application and for the theoretical guarantee to hold. As application example on meteorological forecasts for photovoltaic production integration, we show that our algorithm generates a calibrated probabilistic forecast, with significant performance improvements on probabilistic diagnostic tools (the CRPS, the reliability diagram and the rank histogram).

  8. A genetic ensemble approach for gene-gene interaction identification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ho Joshua WK

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background It has now become clear that gene-gene interactions and gene-environment interactions are ubiquitous and fundamental mechanisms for the development of complex diseases. Though a considerable effort has been put into developing statistical models and algorithmic strategies for identifying such interactions, the accurate identification of those genetic interactions has been proven to be very challenging. Methods In this paper, we propose a new approach for identifying such gene-gene and gene-environment interactions underlying complex diseases. This is a hybrid algorithm and it combines genetic algorithm (GA and an ensemble of classifiers (called genetic ensemble. Using this approach, the original problem of SNP interaction identification is converted into a data mining problem of combinatorial feature selection. By collecting various single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP subsets as well as environmental factors generated in multiple GA runs, patterns of gene-gene and gene-environment interactions can be extracted using a simple combinatorial ranking method. Also considered in this study is the idea of combining identification results obtained from multiple algorithms. A novel formula based on pairwise double fault is designed to quantify the degree of complementarity. Conclusions Our simulation study demonstrates that the proposed genetic ensemble algorithm has comparable identification power to Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction (MDR and is slightly better than Polymorphism Interaction Analysis (PIA, which are the two most popular methods for gene-gene interaction identification. More importantly, the identification results generated by using our genetic ensemble algorithm are highly complementary to those obtained by PIA and MDR. Experimental results from our simulation studies and real world data application also confirm the effectiveness of the proposed genetic ensemble algorithm, as well as the potential benefits of

  9. Assessment of Mediterranean cyclones in the multi-ensemble EC-Earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gil, Victoria; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Trigo, Isabel F.; Trigo, Ricardo M.

    2015-04-01

    suggests a slight decrease of the spring maximum and a pronounced increase in the summer maximum. The cyclone characteristics obtained from the ensemble members of EC-Earth indicate that summer cyclones will tend to be slower, less intense but will have a faster deepening phase. Part of the summer enhanced activity is in areas dominated by thermal lows. Trigo I.F., G. R. Bigg and T.D. Davies, 2002: Climatology of cyclogenesis mechanisms in the Mediterranean. Mon. Wea. Rev. 130, 549-569. Trigo, I. F., 2006: Climatology and Interannual Variability of Storm-Tracks in the Euro-Atlantic sector: a comparison between ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR Reanalyses. Clim. Dynam., 26, 127-143. Acknowledgements: This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) and by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project STORMEx FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER- 019524 (PTDC/AAC-CLI/121339/2010).

  10. Potential of an ensemble Kalman smoother for stratospheric chemical-dynamical data assimilation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Milewski

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available A new stratospheric ensemble Kalman smoother (EnKS system is introduced, and the potential of assimilating posterior stratospheric observations to better constrain the whole model state at analysis time is investigated. A set of idealised perfect-model Observation System Simulation Experiments (OSSE assimilating synthetic limb-sounding temperature or ozone retrievals are performed with a chemistry–climate model. The impact during the analysis step is characterised in terms of the root mean square error reduction between the forecast state and the analysis state. The performances of (1 a fixed-lag EnKS assimilating observations spread over 48 hours and (2 an ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF assimilating a denser network of observations are compared with a reference EnKF. The ozone assimilation with EnKS shows a significant additional reduction of analysis error of the order of 10% for dynamical and chemical variables in the extratropical upper troposphere lower stratosphere (UTLS and Polar Vortex regions when compared to the reference EnKF. This reduction has similar magnitude to the one achieved by the denser-network EnKF assimilation. Similarly, the temperature assimilation with EnKS significantly decreases the error in the UTLS for the wind variables like the denser-network EnKF assimilation. However, the temperature assimilation with EnKS has little or no significant impact on the temperature and ozone analyses, whereas the denser-network EnKF shows improvement with respect to the reference EnKF. The different analysis impacts from the assimilation of current and posterior ozone observations indicate the capacity of time-lagged background-error covariances to represent temporal interactions up to 48 hours between variables during the ensemble data assimilation analysis step, and the possibility to use posterior observations whenever additional current observations are unavailable. The possible application of the EnKS for reanalyses is

  11. Ensemble atmospheric dispersion modeling for emergency response consequence assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Addis, R.P.; Buckley, R.L.

    2003-01-01

    Full text: Prognostic atmospheric dispersion models are used to generate consequence assessments, which assist decision-makers in the event of a release from a nuclear facility. Differences in the forecast wind fields generated by various meteorological agencies, differences in the transport and diffusion models themselves, as well as differences in the way these models treat the release source term, all may result in differences in the simulated plumes. This talk will address the U.S. participation in the European ENSEMBLE project, and present a perspective an how ensemble techniques may be used to enable atmospheric modelers to provide decision-makers with a more realistic understanding of how both the atmosphere and the models behave. Meteorological forecasts generated by numerical models from national and multinational meteorological agencies provide individual realizations of three-dimensional, time dependent atmospheric wind fields. These wind fields may be used to drive atmospheric dispersion (transport and diffusion) models, or they may be used to initiate other, finer resolution meteorological models, which in turn drive dispersion models. Many modeling agencies now utilize ensemble-modeling techniques to determine how sensitive the prognostic fields are to minor perturbations in the model parameters. However, the European Union programs RTMOD and ENSEMBLE are the first projects to utilize a WEB based ensemble approach to interpret the output from atmospheric dispersion models. The ensembles produced are different from those generated by meteorological forecasting centers in that they are ensembles of dispersion model outputs from many different atmospheric transport and diffusion models utilizing prognostic atmospheric fields from several different forecast centers. As such, they enable a decision-maker to consider the uncertainty in the plume transport and growth as a result of the differences in the forecast wind fields as well as the differences in the

  12. Improving the ensemble optimization method through covariance matrix adaptation (CMA-EnOpt)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fonseca, R.M.; Leeuwenburgh, O.; Hof, P.M.J. van den; Jansen, J.D.

    2013-01-01

    Ensemble Optimization (EnOpt) is a rapidly emerging method for reservoir model based production optimization. EnOpt uses an ensemble of controls to approximate the gradient of the objective function with respect to the controls. Current implementations of EnOpt use a Gaussian ensemble with a

  13. A new deterministic Ensemble Kalman Filter with one-step-ahead smoothing for storm surge forecasting

    KAUST Repository

    Raboudi, Naila

    2016-01-01

    KF-OSA exploits the observation twice. The incoming observation is first used to smooth the ensemble at the previous time step. The resulting smoothed ensemble is then integrated forward to compute a "pseudo forecast" ensemble, which is again updated with the same

  14. The Effects of Classical Guitar Ensembles on Student Self-Perceptions and Acquisition of Music Skills

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramer, John R.

    2012-01-01

    Classical guitar ensembles are increasing in the United States as popular alternatives to band, choir, and orchestra. Classical guitar ensembles are offered at many middle and high schools as fine arts electives as one of the only options for classical guitarists to participate in ensembles. The purpose of this study was to explore the development…

  15. A Comparative Case Study of Non-Music Major Participation in Two Contrasting Collegiate Choral Ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Sara K.

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of this comparative case study was to examine the motivation for participation in traditional and non-traditional vocal ensembles by students who are not pursuing a career in music and the perceived benefits of this participation. Participants were selected from a traditional mixed choral ensemble and a student-run a cappella ensemble.…

  16. The state of the art of flood forecasting - Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thielen-Del Pozo, J.; Pappenberger, F.; Salamon, P.; Bogner, K.; Burek, P.; de Roo, A.

    2010-09-01

    Flood forecasting systems form a key part of ‘preparedness' strategies for disastrous floods and provide hydrological services, civil protection authorities and the public with information of upcoming events. Provided the warning leadtime is sufficiently long, adequate preparatory actions can be taken to efficiently reduce the impacts of the flooding. Because of the specific characteristics of each catchment, varying data availability and end-user demands, the design of the best flood forecasting system may differ from catchment to catchment. However, despite the differences in concept and data needs, there is one underlying issue that spans across all systems. There has been an growing awareness and acceptance that uncertainty is a fundamental issue of flood forecasting and needs to be dealt with at the different spatial and temporal scales as well as the different stages of the flood generating processes. Today, operational flood forecasting centres change increasingly from single deterministic forecasts to probabilistic forecasts with various representations of the different contributions of uncertainty. The move towards these so-called Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Systems (HEPS) in flood forecasting represents the state of the art in forecasting science, following on the success of the use of ensembles for weather forecasting (Buizza et al., 2005) and paralleling the move towards ensemble forecasting in other related disciplines such as climate change predictions. The use of HEPS has been internationally fostered by initiatives such as "The Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment" (HEPEX), created with the aim to investigate how best to produce, communicate and use hydrologic ensemble forecasts in hydrological short-, medium- und long term prediction of hydrological processes. The advantages of quantifying the different contributions of uncertainty as well as the overall uncertainty to obtain reliable and useful flood forecasts also for extreme events

  17. Artificially phase-separated binary self-assembled monolayers composed of 11-amino-1-undecanethiolate and 10-carboxy-1-decanethiolate on Au(1 1 1): A comparative study of two preparing methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phong, Pham Hong; Tomono, Hyroyuki; Nishi, Naoya; Yamamoto, Masahiro; Kakiuchi, Takashi

    2008-01-01

    Two methods have been compared for preparing artificially phase-separated two-component SAMs on Au(1 1 1) composed of 11-amino-1-undecanethiolates (AUTe) and 10-carboxyl-1-decanethiolates (CDTe), which would form, thermodynamically, a homogeneously mixed binary SAMs. The first method starts with the formation of a phase-separated binary SAM of AUTe and 2-hydroxy-1-ethanethiolate (HETe) as a template of the artificially phase-separated SAM, followed by the selective desorption of HETe domains and succeeding filling of the vacancy with CDTe. The second method utilizes fluoren-9-ylmethyl N-(11-mercaptoundecyl) carbamate (FMUCe) instead of 11-amino-1-undecanethiol in preparing the template. After the filling with CDTe, the 9-fluorenylmethyloxycarbonyl (Fmoc) group is removed to obtain AUTe domains. Both methods yield artificially phase-separated binary SAMs having AUTe domains of tens nanometer across. The molecularly flat SAM surface with nanometer-scale domains of different acid-base and electrostatic properties are thus created. For preparing binary SAMs with a higher degree of phase separation, the second method is a better choice; a more clear-cut phase separation is achieved

  18. Conservative strategy-based ensemble surrogate model for optimal groundwater remediation design at DNAPLs-contaminated sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouyang, Qi; Lu, Wenxi; Lin, Jin; Deng, Wenbing; Cheng, Weiguo

    2017-08-01

    The surrogate-based simulation-optimization techniques are frequently used for optimal groundwater remediation design. When this technique is used, surrogate errors caused by surrogate-modeling uncertainty may lead to generation of infeasible designs. In this paper, a conservative strategy that pushes the optimal design into the feasible region was used to address surrogate-modeling uncertainty. In addition, chance-constrained programming (CCP) was adopted to compare with the conservative strategy in addressing this uncertainty. Three methods, multi-gene genetic programming (MGGP), Kriging (KRG) and support vector regression (SVR), were used to construct surrogate models for a time-consuming multi-phase flow model. To improve the performance of the surrogate model, ensemble surrogates were constructed based on combinations of different stand-alone surrogate models. The results show that: (1) the surrogate-modeling uncertainty was successfully addressed by the conservative strategy, which means that this method is promising for addressing surrogate-modeling uncertainty. (2) The ensemble surrogate model that combines MGGP with KRG showed the most favorable performance, which indicates that this ensemble surrogate can utilize both stand-alone surrogate models to improve the performance of the surrogate model.

  19. Boiling point determination using adiabatic Gibbs ensemble Monte Carlo simulations: application to metals described by embedded-atom potentials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelb, Lev D; Chakraborty, Somendra Nath

    2011-12-14

    The normal boiling points are obtained for a series of metals as described by the "quantum-corrected Sutton Chen" (qSC) potentials [S.-N. Luo, T. J. Ahrens, T. Çağın, A. Strachan, W. A. Goddard III, and D. C. Swift, Phys. Rev. B 68, 134206 (2003)]. Instead of conventional Monte Carlo simulations in an isothermal or expanded ensemble, simulations were done in the constant-NPH adabatic variant of the Gibbs ensemble technique as proposed by Kristóf and Liszi [Chem. Phys. Lett. 261, 620 (1996)]. This simulation technique is shown to be a precise tool for direct calculation of boiling temperatures in high-boiling fluids, with results that are almost completely insensitive to system size or other arbitrary parameters as long as the potential truncation is handled correctly. Results obtained were validated using conventional NVT-Gibbs ensemble Monte Carlo simulations. The qSC predictions for boiling temperatures are found to be reasonably accurate, but substantially underestimate the enthalpies of vaporization in all cases. This appears to be largely due to the systematic overestimation of dimer binding energies by this family of potentials, which leads to an unsatisfactory description of the vapor phase. © 2011 American Institute of Physics

  20. Thermodynamics of Born-Infeld-anti-de Sitter black holes in the grand canonical ensemble

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fernando, Sharmanthie

    2006-01-01

    The main objective of this paper is to study thermodynamics and stability of static electrically charged Born-Infeld black holes in AdS space in D=4. The Euclidean action for the grand canonical ensemble is computed with the appropriate boundary terms. The thermodynamical quantities such as the Gibbs free energy, entropy and specific heat of the black holes are derived from it. The global stability of black holes are studied in detail by studying the free energy for various potentials. For small values of the potential, we find that there is a Hawking-Page phase transition between a BIAdS black hole and the thermal-AdS space. For large potentials, the black hole phase is dominant and is preferred over the thermal-AdS space. Local stability is studied by computing the specific heat for constant potentials. The nonextreme black holes have two branches: small black holes are unstable and the large black holes are stable. The extreme black holes are shown to be stable both globally as well as locally. In addition to the thermodynamics, we also show that the phase structure relating the mass M and the charge Q of the black holes is similar to the liquid-gas-solid phase diagram

  1. Using synchronization in multi-model ensembles to improve prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiemstra, P.; Selten, F.

    2012-04-01

    In recent decades, many climate models have been developed to understand and predict the behavior of the Earth's climate system. Although these models are all based on the same basic physical principles, they still show different behavior. This is for example caused by the choice of how to parametrize sub-grid scale processes. One method to combine these imperfect models, is to run a multi-model ensemble. The models are given identical initial conditions and are integrated forward in time. A multi-model estimate can for example be a weighted mean of the ensemble members. We propose to go a step further, and try to obtain synchronization between the imperfect models by connecting the multi-model ensemble, and exchanging information. The combined multi-model ensemble is also known as a supermodel. The supermodel has learned from observations how to optimally exchange information between the ensemble members. In this study we focused on the density and formulation of the onnections within the supermodel. The main question was whether we could obtain syn-chronization between two climate models when connecting only a subset of their state spaces. Limiting the connected subspace has two advantages: 1) it limits the transfer of data (bytes) between the ensemble, which can be a limiting factor in large scale climate models, and 2) learning the optimal connection strategy from observations is easier. To answer the research question, we connected two identical quasi-geostrohic (QG) atmospheric models to each other, where the model have different initial conditions. The QG model is a qualitatively realistic simulation of the winter flow on the Northern hemisphere, has three layers and uses a spectral imple-mentation. We connected the models in the original spherical harmonical state space, and in linear combinations of these spherical harmonics, i.e. Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs). We show that when connecting through spherical harmonics, we only need to connect 28% of

  2. Quantum statistical model of nuclear multifragmentation in the canonical ensemble method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toneev, V.D.; Ploszajczak, M.; Parvant, A.S.; Toneev, V.D.; Parvant, A.S.

    1999-01-01

    A quantum statistical model of nuclear multifragmentation is proposed. The recurrence equation method used the canonical ensemble makes the model solvable and transparent to physical assumptions and allows to get results without involving the Monte Carlo technique. The model exhibits the first order phase transition. Quantum statistics effects are clearly seen on the microscopic level of occupation numbers but are almost washed out for global thermodynamic variables and the averaged observables studied. In the latter case, the recurrence relations for multiplicity distributions of both intermediate-mass and all fragments are derived and the specific changes in the shape of multiplicity distributions in the narrow region of the transition temperature is stressed. The temperature domain favorable to search for the HBT effect is noted. (authors)

  3. Quantum statistical model of nuclear multifragmentation in the canonical ensemble method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Toneev, V.D.; Ploszajczak, M. [Grand Accelerateur National d' Ions Lourds (GANIL), 14 - Caen (France); Parvant, A.S. [Institute of Applied Physics, Moldova Academy of Sciences, MD Moldova (Ukraine); Parvant, A.S. [Joint Institute for Nuclear Research, Bogoliubov Lab. of Theoretical Physics, Dubna (Russian Federation)

    1999-07-01

    A quantum statistical model of nuclear multifragmentation is proposed. The recurrence equation method used the canonical ensemble makes the model solvable and transparent to physical assumptions and allows to get results without involving the Monte Carlo technique. The model exhibits the first order phase transition. Quantum statistics effects are clearly seen on the microscopic level of occupation numbers but are almost washed out for global thermodynamic variables and the averaged observables studied. In the latter case, the recurrence relations for multiplicity distributions of both intermediate-mass and all fragments are derived and the specific changes in the shape of multiplicity distributions in the narrow region of the transition temperature is stressed. The temperature domain favorable to search for the HBT effect is noted. (authors)

  4. Electrochemical synthesis and characterization of hierarchically branched ZnO nanostructures on ensembles of gold nanowires

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ongaro, Michael; Gambirasi, Arianna; Favaro, Monica; Ugo, Paolo

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► ZnO branched nanofibres for photoelectrochemical applications. ► Branched nanostructures are obtained by electrochemical deposition of ZnO on gold template nanowires. ► Branched nanowires crystallographic phase determined by electron back scatter diffraction. ► Branched structures display improved performances for the photoelectrochemical oxidation of water. - Abstract: This study presents an electrosynthetic methodology to obtain hierarchically structured ZnO electrodes with improved surface area, by exploiting gold nanowires ensembles (3D-NEEs) as the growing substrate. By this way, semiconductor electrodes organized in the shape of fir-like branches are obtained. Branched nanofibres are characterized by electron microscopy and electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD), the latter technique allowing the determination of the crystalline habit of individual nanostructures. The hierarchical branched nanowires show enhanced performances with respect to water photooxidation in comparison with already known nanostructured materials such as 1D-ZnO nanowires.

  5. Optimised frequency modulation for continuous-wave optical magnetic resonance sensing using nitrogen-vacancy ensembles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    El-Ella, Haitham; Ahmadi, Sepehr; Wojciechowski, Adam

    2017-01-01

    transitions, we experimentally show that when the ratio between the hyperfine linewidth and their separation is ≥ 1=4, square-wave based frequency modulation generates the steepest slope at modulation depths exceeding the separation of the hyperfine lines, compared to sine-wave based modulation. We formulate......Magnetometers based on ensembles of nitrogen-vacancy centres are a promising platform for continuously sensing static and low-frequency magnetic fields. Their combination with phase-sensitive (lock-in) detection creates a highly versatile sensor with a sensitivity that is proportional...... to the derivative of the optical magnetic resonance lock-in spectrum, which is in turn dependant on the lock-in modulation parameters. Here we study the dependence of the lock-in spectral slope on the modulation of the spin-driving microwave field. Given the presence of the intrinsic nitrogen hyperfine spin...

  6. LGM permafrost distribution: how well can the latest PMIP multi-model ensembles perform reconstruction?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Saito

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Here, global-scale frozen ground distribution from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM has been reconstructed using multi-model ensembles of global climate models, and then compared with evidence-based knowledge and earlier numerical results. Modeled soil temperatures, taken from Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase III (PMIP3 simulations, were used to diagnose the subsurface thermal regime and determine underlying frozen ground types for the present day (pre-industrial; 0 kya and the LGM (21 kya. This direct method was then compared to an earlier indirect method, which categorizes underlying frozen ground type from surface air temperature, applying to both the PMIP2 (phase II and PMIP3 products. Both direct and indirect diagnoses for 0 kya showed strong agreement with the present-day observation-based map. The soil temperature ensemble showed a higher diversity around the border between permafrost and seasonally frozen ground among the models, partly due to varying subsurface processes, implementation, and settings. The area of continuous permafrost estimated by the PMIP3 multi-model analysis through the direct (indirect method was 26.0 (17.7 million km2 for LGM, in contrast to 15.1 (11.2 million km2 for the pre-industrial control, whereas seasonally frozen ground decreased from 34.5 (26.6 million km2 to 18.1 (16.0 million km2. These changes in area resulted mainly from a cooler climate at LGM, but from other factors as well, such as the presence of huge land ice sheets and the consequent expansion of total land area due to sea-level change. LGM permafrost boundaries modeled by the PMIP3 ensemble – improved over those of the PMIP2 due to higher spatial resolutions and improved climatology – also compared better to previous knowledge derived from geomorphological and geocryological evidence. Combinatorial applications of coupled climate models and detailed stand-alone physical-ecological models for the cold-region terrestrial

  7. LGM permafrost distribution: how well can the latest PMIP multi-model ensembles perform reconstruction?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saito, K.; Sueyoshi, T.; Marchenko, S.; Romanovsky, V.; Otto-Bliesner, B.; Walsh, J.; Bigelow, N.; Hendricks, A.; Yoshikawa, K.

    2013-08-01

    Here, global-scale frozen ground distribution from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) has been reconstructed using multi-model ensembles of global climate models, and then compared with evidence-based knowledge and earlier numerical results. Modeled soil temperatures, taken from Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase III (PMIP3) simulations, were used to diagnose the subsurface thermal regime and determine underlying frozen ground types for the present day (pre-industrial; 0 kya) and the LGM (21 kya). This direct method was then compared to an earlier indirect method, which categorizes underlying frozen ground type from surface air temperature, applying to both the PMIP2 (phase II) and PMIP3 products. Both direct and indirect diagnoses for 0 kya showed strong agreement with the present-day observation-based map. The soil temperature ensemble showed a higher diversity around the border between permafrost and seasonally frozen ground among the models, partly due to varying subsurface processes, implementation, and settings. The area of continuous permafrost estimated by the PMIP3 multi-model analysis through the direct (indirect) method was 26.0 (17.7) million km2 for LGM, in contrast to 15.1 (11.2) million km2 for the pre-industrial control, whereas seasonally frozen ground decreased from 34.5 (26.6) million km2 to 18.1 (16.0) million km2. These changes in area resulted mainly from a cooler climate at LGM, but from other factors as well, such as the presence of huge land ice sheets and the consequent expansion of total land area due to sea-level change. LGM permafrost boundaries modeled by the PMIP3 ensemble - improved over those of the PMIP2 due to higher spatial resolutions and improved climatology - also compared better to previous knowledge derived from geomorphological and geocryological evidence. Combinatorial applications of coupled climate models and detailed stand-alone physical-ecological models for the cold-region terrestrial, paleo-, and modern

  8. Topology of event distributions as a generalized definition of phase transitions in finite systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chomaz, Ph.; Duflot, V.; Gulminelli, F.; Duflot, V.

    2000-01-01

    We propose a definition of phase transitions in finite systems based on topology anomalies of the event distribution in the space of observations. This generalizes all the definitions based on the curvature anomalies of thermodynamical potentials and provides a natural definition of order parameters. It is directly operational from the experimental point of view. It allows to study phase transitions in Gibbs equilibria as well as in other ensembles such as the Tsallis ensemble. (author)

  9. Random matrix ensembles for PT-symmetric systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Graefe, Eva-Maria; Mudute-Ndumbe, Steve; Taylor, Matthew

    2015-01-01

    Recently much effort has been made towards the introduction of non-Hermitian random matrix models respecting PT-symmetry. Here we show that there is a one-to-one correspondence between complex PT-symmetric matrices and split-complex and split-quaternionic versions of Hermitian matrices. We introduce two new random matrix ensembles of (a) Gaussian split-complex Hermitian; and (b) Gaussian split-quaternionic Hermitian matrices, of arbitrary sizes. We conjecture that these ensembles represent universality classes for PT-symmetric matrices. For the case of 2 × 2 matrices we derive analytic expressions for the joint probability distributions of the eigenvalues, the one-level densities and the level spacings in the case of real eigenvalues. (fast track communication)

  10. Current path in light emitting diodes based on nanowire ensembles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Limbach, F; Hauswald, C; Lähnemann, J; Wölz, M; Brandt, O; Trampert, A; Hanke, M; Jahn, U; Calarco, R; Geelhaar, L; Riechert, H

    2012-01-01

    Light emitting diodes (LEDs) have been fabricated using ensembles of free-standing (In, Ga)N/GaN nanowires (NWs) grown on Si substrates in the self-induced growth mode by molecular beam epitaxy. Electron-beam-induced current analysis, cathodoluminescence as well as biased μ-photoluminescence spectroscopy, transmission electron microscopy, and electrical measurements indicate that the electroluminescence of such LEDs is governed by the differences in the individual current densities of the single-NW LEDs operated in parallel, i.e. by the inhomogeneity of the current path in the ensemble LED. In addition, the optoelectronic characterization leads to the conclusion that these NWs exhibit N-polarity and that the (In, Ga)N quantum well states in the NWs are subject to a non-vanishing quantum confined Stark effect. (paper)

  11. Ensembles and Experiments in Classical and Quantum Physics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neumaier, Arnold

    A philosophically consistent axiomatic approach to classical and quantum mechanics is given. The approach realizes a strong formal implementation of Bohr's correspondence principle. In all instances, classical and quantum concepts are fully parallel: the same general theory has a classical realization and a quantum realization. Extending the ''probability via expectation'' approach of Whittle to noncommuting quantities, this paper defines quantities, ensembles, and experiments as mathematical concepts and shows how to model complementarity, uncertainty, probability, nonlocality and dynamics in these terms. The approach carries no connotation of unlimited repeatability; hence it can be applied to unique systems such as the universe. Consistent experiments provide an elegant solution to the reality problem, confirming the insistence of the orthodox Copenhagen interpretation on that there is nothing but ensembles, while avoiding its elusive reality picture. The weak law of large numbers explains the emergence of classical properties for macroscopic systems.

  12. Observation Quality Control with a Robust Ensemble Kalman Filter

    KAUST Repository

    Roh, Soojin

    2013-12-01

    Current ensemble-based Kalman filter (EnKF) algorithms are not robust to gross observation errors caused by technical or human errors during the data collection process. In this paper, the authors consider two types of gross observational errors, additive statistical outliers and innovation outliers, and introduce a method to make EnKF robust to gross observation errors. Using both a one-dimensional linear system of dynamics and a 40-variable Lorenz model, the performance of the proposed robust ensemble Kalman filter (REnKF) was tested and it was found that the new approach greatly improves the performance of the filter in the presence of gross observation errors and leads to only a modest loss of accuracy with clean, outlier-free, observations.

  13. An Ensemble of Neural Networks for Stock Trading Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Pei-Chann; Liu, Chen-Hao; Fan, Chin-Yuan; Lin, Jun-Lin; Lai, Chih-Ming

    Stock turning signals detection are very interesting subject arising in numerous financial and economic planning problems. In this paper, Ensemble Neural Network system with Intelligent Piecewise Linear Representation for stock turning points detection is presented. The Intelligent piecewise linear representation method is able to generate numerous stocks turning signals from the historic data base, then Ensemble Neural Network system will be applied to train the pattern and retrieve similar stock price patterns from historic data for training. These turning signals represent short-term and long-term trading signals for selling or buying stocks from the market which are applied to forecast the future turning points from the set of test data. Experimental results demonstrate that the hybrid system can make a significant and constant amount of profit when compared with other approaches using stock data available in the market.

  14. Nuclear multifragmentation within the framework of different statistical ensembles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aguiar, C.E.; Donangelo, R.; Souza, S.R.

    2006-01-01

    The sensitivity of the statistical multifragmentation model to the underlying statistical assumptions is investigated. We concentrate on its microcanonical, canonical, and isobaric formulations. As far as average values are concerned, our results reveal that all the ensembles make very similar predictions, as long as the relevant macroscopic variables (such as temperature, excitation energy, and breakup volume) are the same in all statistical ensembles. It also turns out that the multiplicity dependence of the breakup volume in the microcanonical version of the model mimics a system at (approximately) constant pressure, at least in the plateau region of the caloric curve. However, in contrast to average values, our results suggest that the distributions of physical observables are quite sensitive to the statistical assumptions. This finding may help in deciding which hypothesis corresponds to the best picture for the freeze-out stage

  15. The limit shape problem for ensembles of Young diagrams

    CERN Document Server

    Hora, Akihito

    2016-01-01

    This book treats ensembles of Young diagrams originating from group-theoretical contexts and investigates what statistical properties are observed there in a large-scale limit. The focus is mainly on analyzing the interesting phenomenon that specific curves appear in the appropriate scaling limit for the profiles of Young diagrams. This problem is regarded as an important origin of recent vital studies on harmonic analysis of huge symmetry structures. As mathematics, an asymptotic theory of representations is developed of the symmetric groups of degree n as n goes to infinity. The framework of rigorous limit theorems (especially the law of large numbers) in probability theory is employed as well as combinatorial analysis of group characters of symmetric groups and applications of Voiculescu's free probability. The central destination here is a clear description of the asymptotic behavior of rescaled profiles of Young diagrams in the Plancherel ensemble from both static and dynamic points of view.

  16. Generation of macroscopic singlet states in atomic ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tóth, Géza; Mitchell, Morgan W.

    2010-05-01

    We study squeezing of the spin uncertainties by quantum non-demolition (QND) measurement in non-polarized spin ensembles. Unlike the case of polarized ensembles, the QND measurements can be performed with negligible back-action, which allows, in principle, perfect spin squeezing as quantified by Tóth et al (2007 Phys. Rev. Lett. 99 250405). The generated spin states approach many-body singlet states and contain a macroscopic number of entangled particles even when individual spin is large. We introduce the Gaussian treatment of unpolarized spin states and use it to estimate the achievable spin squeezing for realistic experimental parameters. Our proposal might have applications for magnetometry with a high spatial resolution or quantum memories storing information in decoherence free subspaces.

  17. Skill forecasting from ensemble predictions of wind power

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Madsen, Henrik

    2009-01-01

    Optimal management and trading of wind generation calls for the providing of uncertainty estimates along with the commonly provided short-term wind power point predictions. Alternative approaches for the use of probabilistic forecasting are introduced. More precisely, focus is given to prediction...... risk indices aiming to give a comprehensive signal on the expected level of forecast uncertainty. Ensemble predictions of wind generation are used as input. A proposal for the definition of prediction risk indices is given. Such skill forecasts are based on the spread of ensemble forecasts (i.e. a set...... of alternative scenarios for the coming period) for a single prediction horizon or over a took-ahead period. It is shown on the test case of a Danish offshore wind farm how these prediction risk indices may be related to several levels of forecast uncertainty (and potential energy imbalances). Wind power...

  18. A multidimensional pseudospectral method for optimal control of quantum ensembles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruths, Justin; Li, Jr-Shin

    2011-01-01

    In our previous work, we have shown that the pseudospectral method is an effective and flexible computation scheme for deriving pulses for optimal control of quantum systems. In practice, however, quantum systems often exhibit variation in the parameters that characterize the system dynamics. This leads us to consider the control of an ensemble (or continuum) of quantum systems indexed by the system parameters that show variation. We cast the design of pulses as an optimal ensemble control problem and demonstrate a multidimensional pseudospectral method with several challenging examples of both closed and open quantum systems from nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy in liquid. We give particular attention to the ability to derive experimentally viable pulses of minimum energy or duration.

  19. Security Enrichment in Intrusion Detection System Using Classifier Ensemble

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Uma R. Salunkhe

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In the era of Internet and with increasing number of people as its end users, a large number of attack categories are introduced daily. Hence, effective detection of various attacks with the help of Intrusion Detection Systems is an emerging trend in research these days. Existing studies show effectiveness of machine learning approaches in handling Intrusion Detection Systems. In this work, we aim to enhance detection rate of Intrusion Detection System by using machine learning technique. We propose a novel classifier ensemble based IDS that is constructed using hybrid approach which combines data level and feature level approach. Classifier ensembles combine the opinions of different experts and improve the intrusion detection rate. Experimental results show the improved detection rates of our system compared to reference technique.

  20. Generalized ensemble theory with non-extensive statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Ke-Ming; Zhang, Ben-Wei; Wang, En-Ke

    2017-12-01

    The non-extensive canonical ensemble theory is reconsidered with the method of Lagrange multipliers by maximizing Tsallis entropy, with the constraint that the normalized term of Tsallis' q -average of physical quantities, the sum ∑ pjq, is independent of the probability pi for Tsallis parameter q. The self-referential problem in the deduced probability and thermal quantities in non-extensive statistics is thus avoided, and thermodynamical relationships are obtained in a consistent and natural way. We also extend the study to the non-extensive grand canonical ensemble theory and obtain the q-deformed Bose-Einstein distribution as well as the q-deformed Fermi-Dirac distribution. The theory is further applied to the generalized Planck law to demonstrate the distinct behaviors of the various generalized q-distribution functions discussed in literature.

  1. Detection of eardrum abnormalities using ensemble deep learning approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senaras, Caglar; Moberly, Aaron C.; Teknos, Theodoros; Essig, Garth; Elmaraghy, Charles; Taj-Schaal, Nazhat; Yua, Lianbo; Gurcan, Metin N.

    2018-02-01

    In this study, we proposed an approach to report the condition of the eardrum as "normal" or "abnormal" by ensembling two different deep learning architectures. In the first network (Network 1), we applied transfer learning to the Inception V3 network by using 409 labeled samples. As a second network (Network 2), we designed a convolutional neural network to take advantage of auto-encoders by using additional 673 unlabeled eardrum samples. The individual classification accuracies of the Network 1 and Network 2 were calculated as 84.4%(+/- 12.1%) and 82.6% (+/- 11.3%), respectively. Only 32% of the errors of the two networks were the same, making it possible to combine two approaches to achieve better classification accuracy. The proposed ensemble method allows us to achieve robust classification because it has high accuracy (84.4%) with the lowest standard deviation (+/- 10.3%).

  2. Observation Quality Control with a Robust Ensemble Kalman Filter

    KAUST Repository

    Roh, Soojin; Genton, Marc G.; Jun, Mikyoung; Szunyogh, Istvan; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2013-01-01

    Current ensemble-based Kalman filter (EnKF) algorithms are not robust to gross observation errors caused by technical or human errors during the data collection process. In this paper, the authors consider two types of gross observational errors, additive statistical outliers and innovation outliers, and introduce a method to make EnKF robust to gross observation errors. Using both a one-dimensional linear system of dynamics and a 40-variable Lorenz model, the performance of the proposed robust ensemble Kalman filter (REnKF) was tested and it was found that the new approach greatly improves the performance of the filter in the presence of gross observation errors and leads to only a modest loss of accuracy with clean, outlier-free, observations.

  3. Control of inhomogeneous atomic ensembles of hyperfine qudits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mischuck, Brian Edward; Merkel, Seth T.; Deutsch, Ivan H.

    2012-01-01

    We study the ability to control d-dimensional quantum systems (qudits) encoded in the hyperfine spin of alkali-metal atoms through the application of radio- and microwave-frequency magnetic fields in the presence of inhomogeneities in amplitude and detuning. Such a capability is essential...... to the design of robust pulses that mitigate the effects of experimental uncertainty and also for application to tomographic addressing of particular members of an extended ensemble. We study the problem of preparing an arbitrary state in the Hilbert space from an initial fiducial state. We prove...... that inhomogeneous control of qudit ensembles is possible based on a semianalytic protocol that synthesizes the target through a sequence of alternating rf and microwave-driven SU(2) rotations in overlapping irreducible subspaces. Several examples of robust control are studied, and the semianalytic protocol...

  4. Weighted ensemble transform Kalman filter for image assimilation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sebastien Beyou

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This study proposes an extension of the Weighted Ensemble Kalman filter (WEnKF proposed by Papadakis et al. (2010 for the assimilation of image observations. The main focus of this study is on a novel formulation of the Weighted filter with the Ensemble Transform Kalman filter (WETKF, incorporating directly as a measurement model a non-linear image reconstruction criterion. This technique has been compared to the original WEnKF on numerical and real world data of 2-D turbulence observed through the transport of a passive scalar. In particular, it has been applied for the reconstruction of oceanic surface current vorticity fields from sea surface temperature (SST satellite data. This latter technique enables a consistent recovery along time of oceanic surface currents and vorticity maps in presence of large missing data areas and strong noise.

  5. Human resource recommendation algorithm based on ensemble learning and Spark

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cong, Zihan; Zhang, Xingming; Wang, Haoxiang; Xu, Hongjie

    2017-08-01

    Aiming at the problem of “information overload” in the human resources industry, this paper proposes a human resource recommendation algorithm based on Ensemble Learning. The algorithm considers the characteristics and behaviours of both job seeker and job features in the real business circumstance. Firstly, the algorithm uses two ensemble learning methods-Bagging and Boosting. The outputs from both learning methods are then merged to form user interest model. Based on user interest model, job recommendation can be extracted for users. The algorithm is implemented as a parallelized recommendation system on Spark. A set of experiments have been done and analysed. The proposed algorithm achieves significant improvement in accuracy, recall rate and coverage, compared with recommendation algorithms such as UserCF and ItemCF.

  6. Harnessing Disordered-Ensemble Quantum Dynamics for Machine Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujii, Keisuke; Nakajima, Kohei

    2017-08-01

    The quantum computer has an amazing potential of fast information processing. However, the realization of a digital quantum computer is still a challenging problem requiring highly accurate controls and key application strategies. Here we propose a platform, quantum reservoir computing, to solve these issues successfully by exploiting the natural quantum dynamics of ensemble systems, which are ubiquitous in laboratories nowadays, for machine learning. This framework enables ensemble quantum systems to universally emulate nonlinear dynamical systems including classical chaos. A number of numerical experiments show that quantum systems consisting of 5-7 qubits possess computational capabilities comparable to conventional recurrent neural networks of 100-500 nodes. This discovery opens up a paradigm for information processing with artificial intelligence powered by quantum physics.

  7. Encoding qubits into oscillators with atomic ensembles and squeezed light

    Science.gov (United States)

    Motes, Keith R.; Baragiola, Ben Q.; Gilchrist, Alexei; Menicucci, Nicolas C.

    2017-05-01

    The Gottesman-Kitaev-Preskill (GKP) encoding of a qubit within an oscillator provides a number of advantages when used in a fault-tolerant architecture for quantum computing, most notably that Gaussian operations suffice to implement all single- and two-qubit Clifford gates. The main drawback of the encoding is that the logical states themselves are challenging to produce. Here we present a method for generating optical GKP-encoded qubits by coupling an atomic ensemble to a squeezed state of light. Particular outcomes of a subsequent spin measurement of the ensemble herald successful generation of the resource state in the optical mode. We analyze the method in terms of the resources required (total spin and amount of squeezing) and the probability of success. We propose a physical implementation using a Faraday-based quantum nondemolition interaction.

  8. On-line Learning of Unlearnable True Teacher through Mobile Ensemble Teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirama, Takeshi; Hukushima, Koji

    2008-09-01

    The on-line learning of a hierarchical learning model is studied by a method based on statistical mechanics. In our model, a student of a simple perceptron learns from not a true teacher directly, but ensemble teachers who learn from a true teacher with a perceptron learning rule. Since the true teacher and ensemble teachers are expressed as nonmonotonic and simple perceptrons, respectively, the ensemble teachers go around the unlearnable true teacher with the distance between them fixed in an asymptotic steady state. The generalization performance of the student is shown to exceed that of the ensemble teachers in a transient state, as was shown in similar ensemble-teachers models. Furthermore, it is found that moving the ensemble teachers even in the steady state, in contrast to the fixed ensemble teachers, is efficient for the performance of the student.

  9. Developing Novel Frameworks for Many-Body Ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-17

    RETURN YOUR FORM TO THE ABOVE ADDRESS. Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) 77 Massachusetts Ave. NE18-901 Cambridge , MA 02139 -4307 15-Jul-2015...of-equilibrium dynamics and to estimate prob- Page 4 of 9 Figure 2: Illustration of the dendro- gram representation. The rectangle on the left shows...isolation as illustrated in Figure 4. Starting from random initial conditions, an ensemble of particle pairs was simulated to establish the long-time

  10. A virtual pebble game to ensemble average graph rigidity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González, Luis C; Wang, Hui; Livesay, Dennis R; Jacobs, Donald J

    2015-01-01

    The body-bar Pebble Game (PG) algorithm is commonly used to calculate network rigidity properties in proteins and polymeric materials. To account for fluctuating interactions such as hydrogen bonds, an ensemble of constraint topologies are sampled, and average network properties are obtained by averaging PG characterizations. At a simpler level of sophistication, Maxwell constraint counting (MCC) provides a rigorous lower bound for the number of internal degrees of freedom (DOF) within a body-bar network, and it is commonly employed to test if a molecular structure is globally under-constrained or over-constrained. MCC is a mean field approximation (MFA) that ignores spatial fluctuations of distance constraints by replacing the actual molecular structure by an effective medium that has distance constraints globally distributed with perfect uniform density. The Virtual Pebble Game (VPG) algorithm is a MFA that retains spatial inhomogeneity in the density of constraints on all length scales. Network fluctuations due to distance constraints that may be present or absent based on binary random dynamic variables are suppressed by replacing all possible constraint topology realizations with the probabilities that distance constraints are present. The VPG algorithm is isomorphic to the PG algorithm, where integers for counting "pebbles" placed on vertices or edges in the PG map to real numbers representing the probability to find a pebble. In the VPG, edges are assigned pebble capacities, and pebble movements become a continuous flow of probability within the network. Comparisons between the VPG and average PG results over a test set of proteins and disordered lattices demonstrate the VPG quantitatively estimates the ensemble average PG results well. The VPG performs about 20% faster than one PG, and it provides a pragmatic alternative to averaging PG rigidity characteristics over an ensemble of constraint topologies. The utility of the VPG falls in between the most

  11. Disease-associated mutations that alter the RNA structural ensemble.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew Halvorsen

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Genome-wide association studies (GWAS often identify disease-associated mutations in intergenic and non-coding regions of the genome. Given the high percentage of the human genome that is transcribed, we postulate that for some observed associations the disease phenotype is caused by a structural rearrangement in a regulatory region of the RNA transcript. To identify such mutations, we have performed a genome-wide analysis of all known disease-associated Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs from the Human Gene Mutation Database (HGMD that map to the untranslated regions (UTRs of a gene. Rather than using minimum free energy approaches (e.g. mFold, we use a partition function calculation that takes into consideration the ensemble of possible RNA conformations for a given sequence. We identified in the human genome disease-associated SNPs that significantly alter the global conformation of the UTR to which they map. For six disease-states (Hyperferritinemia Cataract Syndrome, beta-Thalassemia, Cartilage-Hair Hypoplasia, Retinoblastoma, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD, and Hypertension, we identified multiple SNPs in UTRs that alter the mRNA structural ensemble of the associated genes. Using a Boltzmann sampling procedure for sub-optimal RNA structures, we are able to characterize and visualize the nature of the conformational changes induced by the disease-associated mutations in the structural ensemble. We observe in several cases (specifically the 5' UTRs of FTL and RB1 SNP-induced conformational changes analogous to those observed in bacterial regulatory Riboswitches when specific ligands bind. We propose that the UTR and SNP combinations we identify constitute a "RiboSNitch," that is a regulatory RNA in which a specific SNP has a structural consequence that results in a disease phenotype. Our SNPfold algorithm can help identify RiboSNitches by leveraging GWAS data and an analysis of the mRNA structural ensemble.

  12. Diagnosing Coronary Heart Disease using Ensemble Machine Learning

    OpenAIRE

    Kathleen H. Miao; Julia H. Miao; George J. Miao

    2016-01-01

    Globally, heart disease is the leading cause of death for both men and women. One in every four people is afflicted with and dies of heart disease. Early and accurate diagnoses of heart disease thus are crucial in improving the chances of long-term survival for patients and saving millions of lives. In this research, an advanced ensemble machine learning technology, utilizing an adaptive Boosting algorithm, is developed for accurate coronary heart disease diagnosis and outcome predictions. Th...

  13. Fluctuations in a quasi-stationary shallow cumulus cloud ensemble

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Sakradzija

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose an approach to stochastic parameterisation of shallow cumulus clouds to represent the convective variability and its dependence on the model resolution. To collect information about the individual cloud lifecycles and the cloud ensemble as a whole, we employ a large eddy simulation (LES model and a cloud tracking algorithm, followed by conditional sampling of clouds at the cloud-base level. In the case of a shallow cumulus ensemble, the cloud-base mass flux distribution is bimodal, due to the different shallow cloud subtypes, active and passive clouds. Each distribution mode can be approximated using a Weibull distribution, which is a generalisation of exponential distribution by accounting for the change in distribution shape due to the diversity of cloud lifecycles. The exponential distribution of cloud mass flux previously suggested for deep convection parameterisation is a special case of the Weibull distribution, which opens a way towards unification of the statistical convective ensemble formalism of shallow and deep cumulus clouds. Based on the empirical and theoretical findings, a stochastic model has been developed to simulate a shallow convective cloud ensemble. It is formulated as a compound random process, with the number of convective elements drawn from a Poisson distribution, and the cloud mass flux sampled from a mixed Weibull distribution. Convective memory is accounted for through the explicit cloud lifecycles, making the model formulation consistent with the choice of the Weibull cloud mass flux distribution function. The memory of individual shallow clouds is required to capture the correct convective variability. The resulting distribution of the subgrid convective states in the considered shallow cumulus case is scale-adaptive – the smaller the grid size, the broader the distribution.

  14. Wave Extremes in the Northeast Atlantic from Ensemble Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breivik, Øyvind; Aarnes, Ole Johan; Bidlot, Jean-Raymond; Carrasco, Ana; Saetra, Øyvind

    2013-10-01

    A method for estimating return values from ensembles of forecasts at advanced lead times is presented. Return values of significant wave height in the North-East Atlantic, the Norwegian Sea and the North Sea are computed from archived +240-h forecasts of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system (EPS) from 1999 to 2009. We make three assumptions: First, each forecast is representative of a six-hour interval and collectively the data set is then comparable to a time period of 226 years. Second, the model climate matches the observed distribution, which we confirm by comparing with buoy data. Third, the ensemble members are sufficiently uncorrelated to be considered independent realizations of the model climate. We find anomaly correlations of 0.20, but peak events (>P97) are entirely uncorrelated. By comparing return values from individual members with return values of subsamples of the data set we also find that the estimates follow the same distribution and appear unaffected by correlations in the ensemble. The annual mean and variance over the 11-year archived period exhibit no significant departures from stationarity compared with a recent reforecast, i.e., there is no spurious trend due to model upgrades. EPS yields significantly higher return values than ERA-40 and ERA-Interim and is in good agreement with the high-resolution hindcast NORA10, except in the lee of unresolved islands where EPS overestimates and in enclosed seas where it is biased low. Confidence intervals are half the width of those found for ERA-Interim due to the magnitude of the data set.

  15. Dynamic Metabolic Model Building Based on the Ensemble Modeling Approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liao, James C. [Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States)

    2016-10-01

    Ensemble modeling of kinetic systems addresses the challenges of kinetic model construction, with respect to parameter value selection, and still allows for the rich insights possible from kinetic models. This project aimed to show that constructing, implementing, and analyzing such models is a useful tool for the metabolic engineering toolkit, and that they can result in actionable insights from models. Key concepts are developed and deliverable publications and results are presented.

  16. Canonical Ensemble Model for Black Hole Radiation Jingyi Zhang

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Canonical Ensemble Model for Black Hole Radiation. 575. For entropy, there is no corresponding thermodynamical quantity, without loss of generalization. Let us define an entropy operator. ˆS = −KB ln ˆρ. (11). Then, the mean value of entropy is. S ≡〈ˆS〉 = tr( ˆρ ˆS) = −KBtr( ˆρ ln ˆρ). (12). For ideal gases, let y = V , then the ...

  17. Hybrid vs Adaptive Ensemble Kalman Filtering for Storm Surge Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altaf, M. U.; Raboudi, N.; Gharamti, M. E.; Dawson, C.; McCabe, M. F.; Hoteit, I.

    2014-12-01

    Recent storm surge events due to Hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico have motivated the efforts to accurately forecast water levels. Toward this goal, a parallel architecture has been implemented based on a high resolution storm surge model, ADCIRC. However the accuracy of the model notably depends on the quality and the recentness of the input data (mainly winds and bathymetry), model parameters (e.g. wind and bottom drag coefficients), and the resolution of the model grid. Given all these uncertainties in the system, the challenge is to build an efficient prediction system capable of providing accurate forecasts enough ahead of time for the authorities to evacuate the areas at risk. We have developed an ensemble-based data assimilation system to frequently assimilate available data into the ADCIRC model in order to improve the accuracy of the model. In this contribution we study and analyze the performances of different ensemble Kalman filter methodologies for efficient short-range storm surge forecasting, the aim being to produce the most accurate forecasts at the lowest possible computing time. Using Hurricane Ike meteorological data to force the ADCIRC model over a domain including the Gulf of Mexico coastline, we implement and compare the forecasts of the standard EnKF, the hybrid EnKF and an adaptive EnKF. The last two schemes have been introduced as efficient tools for enhancing the behavior of the EnKF when implemented with small ensembles by exploiting information from a static background covariance matrix. Covariance inflation and localization are implemented in all these filters. Our results suggest that both the hybrid and the adaptive approach provide significantly better forecasts than those resulting from the standard EnKF, even when implemented with much smaller ensembles.

  18. Marginalized Particle Filtering Framework for Tuning of Ensemble Filters

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šmídl, Václav; Hofman, Radek

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 139, č. 11 (2011), s. 3589-3599 ISSN 0027-0644 R&D Projects: GA MV VG20102013018; GA ČR GP102/08/P250 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : ensemble finter * marginalized particle filter * data assimilation Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 2.688, year: 2011 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2011/AS/smidl-0367533.pdf

  19. An Organic Computing Approach to Self-organising Robot Ensembles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sebastian Albrecht von Mammen

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Similar to the Autonomous Computing initiative, that has mainly been advancing techniques for self-optimisation focussing on computing systems and infrastructures, Organic Computing (OC has been driving the development of system design concepts and algorithms for self-adaptive systems at large. Examples of application domains include, for instance, traffic management and control, cloud services, communication protocols, and robotic systems. Such an OC system typically consists of a potentially large set of autonomous and self-managed entities, where each entity acts with a local decision horizon. By means of cooperation of the individual entities, the behaviour of the entire ensemble system is derived. In this article, we present our work on how autonomous, adaptive robot ensembles can benefit from OC technology. Our elaborations are aligned with the different layers of an observer/controller framework which provides the foundation for the individuals' adaptivity at system design-level. Relying on an extended Learning Classifier System (XCS in combination with adequate simulation techniques, this basic system design empowers robot individuals to improve their individual and collaborative performances, e.g. by means of adapting to changing goals and conditions.Not only for the sake of generalisability, but also because of its enormous transformative potential, we stage our research in the domain of robot ensembles that are typically comprised of several quad-rotors and that organise themselves to fulfil spatial tasks such as maintenance of building facades or the collaborative search for mobile targets. Our elaborations detail the architectural concept, provide examples of individual self-optimisation as well as of the optimisation of collaborative efforts, and we show how the user can control the ensembles at multiple levels of abstraction. We conclude with a summary of our approach and an outlook on possible future steps.

  20. ANALYSIS OF SST IMAGES BY WEIGHTED ENSEMBLE TRANSFORM KALMAN FILTER

    OpenAIRE

    Sai , Gorthi; Beyou , Sébastien; Memin , Etienne

    2011-01-01

    International audience; This paper presents a novel, efficient scheme for the analysis of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) ocean images. We consider the estimation of the velocity fields and vorticity values from a sequence of oceanic images. The contribution of this paper lies in proposing a novel, robust and simple approach based onWeighted Ensemble Transform Kalman filter (WETKF) data assimilation technique for the analysis of real SST images, that may contain coast regions or large areas of ...