WorldWideScience

Sample records for ensemble atmospheric simulations

  1. Advanced Atmospheric Ensemble Modeling Techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buckley, R. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Chiswell, S. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Kurzeja, R. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Maze, G. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Viner, B. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Werth, D. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL)

    2017-09-29

    Ensemble modeling (EM), the creation of multiple atmospheric simulations for a given time period, has become an essential tool for characterizing uncertainties in model predictions. We explore two novel ensemble modeling techniques: (1) perturbation of model parameters (Adaptive Programming, AP), and (2) data assimilation (Ensemble Kalman Filter, EnKF). The current research is an extension to work from last year and examines transport on a small spatial scale (<100 km) in complex terrain, for more rigorous testing of the ensemble technique. Two different release cases were studied, a coastal release (SF6) and an inland release (Freon) which consisted of two release times. Observations of tracer concentration and meteorology are used to judge the ensemble results. In addition, adaptive grid techniques have been developed to reduce required computing resources for transport calculations. Using a 20- member ensemble, the standard approach generated downwind transport that was quantitatively good for both releases; however, the EnKF method produced additional improvement for the coastal release where the spatial and temporal differences due to interior valley heating lead to the inland movement of the plume. The AP technique showed improvements for both release cases, with more improvement shown in the inland release. This research demonstrated that transport accuracy can be improved when models are adapted to a particular location/time or when important local data is assimilated into the simulation and enhances SRNL’s capability in atmospheric transport modeling in support of its current customer base and local site missions, as well as our ability to attract new customers within the intelligence community.

  2. A New Ensemble of Perturbed-Input-Parameter Simulations by the Community Atmosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Covey, C; Brandon, S; Bremer, P T; Domyancis, D; Garaizar, X; Johannesson, G; Klein, R; Klein, S A; Lucas, D D; Tannahill, J; Zhang, Y

    2011-10-27

    Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a fundamental challenge in the numerical simulation of Earth's weather and climate, and other complex systems. It entails much more than attaching defensible error bars to predictions: in particular it includes assessing low-probability but high-consequence events. To achieve these goals with models containing a large number of uncertain input parameters, structural uncertainties, etc., raw computational power is needed. An automated, self-adapting search of the possible model configurations is also useful. Our UQ initiative at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory has produced the most extensive set to date of simulations from the US Community Atmosphere Model. We are examining output from about 3,000 twelve-year climate simulations generated with a specialized UQ software framework, and assessing the model's accuracy as a function of 21 to 28 uncertain input parameter values. Most of the input parameters we vary are related to the boundary layer, clouds, and other sub-grid scale processes. Our simulations prescribe surface boundary conditions (sea surface temperatures and sea ice amounts) to match recent observations. Fully searching this 21+ dimensional space is impossible, but sensitivity and ranking algorithms can identify input parameters having relatively little effect on a variety of output fields, either individually or in nonlinear combination. Bayesian statistical constraints, employing a variety of climate observations as metrics, also seem promising. Observational constraints will be important in the next step of our project, which will compute sea surface temperatures and sea ice interactively, and will study climate change due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide.

  3. Insights in time dependent cross compartment sensitivities from ensemble simulations with the fully coupled subsurface-land surface-atmosphere model TerrSysMP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schalge, Bernd; Rihani, Jehan; Haese, Barbara; Baroni, Gabriele; Erdal, Daniel; Haefliger, Vincent; Lange, Natascha; Neuweiler, Insa; Hendricks-Franssen, Harrie-Jan; Geppert, Gernot; Ament, Felix; Kollet, Stefan; Cirpka, Olaf; Saavedra, Pablo; Han, Xujun; Attinger, Sabine; Kunstmann, Harald; Vereecken, Harry; Simmer, Clemens

    2017-04-01

    Currently, an integrated approach to simulating the earth system is evolving where several compartment models are coupled to achieve the best possible physically consistent representation. We used the model TerrSysMP, which fully couples subsurface, land surface and atmosphere, in a synthetic study that mimicked the Neckar catchment in Southern Germany. A virtual reality run at a high resolution of 400m for the land surface and subsurface and 1.1km for the atmosphere was made. Ensemble runs at a lower resolution (800m for the land surface and subsurface) were also made. The ensemble was generated by varying soil and vegetation parameters and lateral atmospheric forcing among the different ensemble members in a systematic way. It was found that the ensemble runs deviated for some variables and some time periods largely from the virtual reality reference run (the reference run was not covered by the ensemble), which could be related to the different model resolutions. This was for example the case for river discharge in the summer. We also analyzed the spread of model states as function of time and found clear relations between the spread and the time of the year and weather conditions. For example, the ensemble spread of latent heat flux related to uncertain soil parameters was larger under dry soil conditions than under wet soil conditions. Another example is that the ensemble spread of atmospheric states was more influenced by uncertain soil and vegetation parameters under conditions of low air pressure gradients (in summer) than under conditions with larger air pressure gradients in winter. The analysis of the ensemble of fully coupled model simulations provided valuable insights in the dynamics of land-atmosphere feedbacks which we will further highlight in the presentation.

  4. Ensemble data assimilation in the Red Sea: sensitivity to ensemble selection and atmospheric forcing

    KAUST Repository

    Toye, Habib

    2017-05-26

    We present our efforts to build an ensemble data assimilation and forecasting system for the Red Sea. The system consists of the high-resolution Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) to simulate ocean circulation and of the Data Research Testbed (DART) for ensemble data assimilation. DART has been configured to integrate all members of an ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF) in parallel, based on which we adapted the ensemble operations in DART to use an invariant ensemble, i.e., an ensemble Optimal Interpolation (EnOI) algorithm. This approach requires only single forward model integration in the forecast step and therefore saves substantial computational cost. To deal with the strong seasonal variability of the Red Sea, the EnOI ensemble is then seasonally selected from a climatology of long-term model outputs. Observations of remote sensing sea surface height (SSH) and sea surface temperature (SST) are assimilated every 3 days. Real-time atmospheric fields from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are used as forcing in different assimilation experiments. We investigate the behaviors of the EAKF and (seasonal-) EnOI and compare their performances for assimilating and forecasting the circulation of the Red Sea. We further assess the sensitivity of the assimilation system to various filtering parameters (ensemble size, inflation) and atmospheric forcing.

  5. Quality assessment of atmospheric surface fields over the Baltic Sea from an ensemble of regional climate model simulations with respect to ocean dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. E. Markus Meier

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate model results for the Baltic Sea region from an ensemble of eight simulations using the Rossby Centre Atmosphere model version 3 (RCA3 driven with lateral boundary data from global climate models (GCMs are compared with results from a downscaled ERA40 simulation and gridded observations from 1980-2006. The results showed that data from RCA3 scenario simulations should not be used as forcing for Baltic Sea models in climate change impact studies because biases of the control climate significantly affect the simulated changes of future projections. For instance, biases of the sea ice cover in RCA3 in the present climate affect the sensitivity of the model's response to changing climate due to the ice-albedo feedback. From the large ensemble of available RCA3 scenario simulations two GCMs with good performance in downscaling experiments during the control period 1980-2006 were selected. In this study, only the quality of atmospheric surface fields over the Baltic Sea was chosen as a selection criterion. For the greenhouse gas emission scenario A1B two transient simulations for 1961-2100 driven by these two GCMs were performed using the regional, fully coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean model RCAO. It was shown that RCAO has the potential to improve the results in downscaling experiments driven by GCMs considerably, because sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations are calculated more realistically with RCAO than when RCA3 has been forced with surface boundary data from GCMs. For instance, the seasonal 2 m air temperature cycle is closer to observations in RCAO than in RCA3 downscaling simulations. However, the parameterizations of air-sea fluxes in RCAO need to be improved.

  6. Effect of land model ensemble versus coupled model ensemble on the simulation of precipitation climatology and variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Jiangfeng; Dirmeyer, Paul A.; Yang, Zong-Liang; Chen, Haishan

    2017-10-01

    Through a series of model simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to three different land surface models, this study investigates the impacts of land model ensembles and coupled model ensemble on precipitation simulation. It is found that coupling an ensemble of land models to an atmospheric model has a very minor impact on the improvement of precipitation climatology and variability, but a simple ensemble average of the precipitation from three individually coupled land-atmosphere models produces better results, especially for precipitation variability. The generally weak impact of land processes on precipitation should be the main reason that the land model ensembles do not improve precipitation simulation. However, if there are big biases in the land surface model or land surface data set, correcting them could improve the simulated climate, especially for well-constrained regional climate simulations.

  7. Ensemble atmospheric dispersion modeling for emergency response consequence assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Addis, R.P.; Buckley, R.L.

    2003-01-01

    Full text: Prognostic atmospheric dispersion models are used to generate consequence assessments, which assist decision-makers in the event of a release from a nuclear facility. Differences in the forecast wind fields generated by various meteorological agencies, differences in the transport and diffusion models themselves, as well as differences in the way these models treat the release source term, all may result in differences in the simulated plumes. This talk will address the U.S. participation in the European ENSEMBLE project, and present a perspective an how ensemble techniques may be used to enable atmospheric modelers to provide decision-makers with a more realistic understanding of how both the atmosphere and the models behave. Meteorological forecasts generated by numerical models from national and multinational meteorological agencies provide individual realizations of three-dimensional, time dependent atmospheric wind fields. These wind fields may be used to drive atmospheric dispersion (transport and diffusion) models, or they may be used to initiate other, finer resolution meteorological models, which in turn drive dispersion models. Many modeling agencies now utilize ensemble-modeling techniques to determine how sensitive the prognostic fields are to minor perturbations in the model parameters. However, the European Union programs RTMOD and ENSEMBLE are the first projects to utilize a WEB based ensemble approach to interpret the output from atmospheric dispersion models. The ensembles produced are different from those generated by meteorological forecasting centers in that they are ensembles of dispersion model outputs from many different atmospheric transport and diffusion models utilizing prognostic atmospheric fields from several different forecast centers. As such, they enable a decision-maker to consider the uncertainty in the plume transport and growth as a result of the differences in the forecast wind fields as well as the differences in the

  8. Evaluation of ensemble atmospheric simulations in oil dispersion models at Itaguai Port region; Avaliacao do uso de resultados numericos de previsao atmosferica por conjunto na modelagem da dispersao de oleo na regiao do Porto de Itaguai

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos, Renato Goncalves dos; Silva, Mariana P.R.; Silva, Ricardo Marcelo da; Torres Junior, Audalio R. [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Lab. de Modelagem de Processos Marinhos e Atmosfericos (LAMMA); Landau, Luiz [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Lab. de Metodos Computacinais em Engenharia (LAMCE); Sa, Reginaldo Ventura de; Hochleitner, Fabio; Correa, Eduardo Barbosa [AQUAMET Meteorologia e Projeto de Sistemas, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    This work discusses the use of numerical prediction using ensemble as boundary condition in pollutants dispersion models, applied in a hypothetical case of an oil spill occurrence in Itaguai Port. The Princeton Ocean Model (POM) has been used to simulate hydrodynamics and NICOIL Eulerian model to forecast oil spill dispersion, and ensemble wind forecast from Global Forecast System (GFS), aiming to assess the importance of this parameter variability in oil dispersion at sea. The wind scenarios using ensemble members has showed significant dispersion when compared to control simulation, demonstrating that the uncertainty in the atmospheric modeling can generate considerable variations in the placement of the final spot of oil. The region of interest was the Sepetiba Bay, located on the southern coast of the Rio de Janeiro state; because of port operations carried out around the Port of Itaguai where they can, eventually, oil leaks occur. (author)

  9. Ensemble atmospheric dispersion calculations for decision support systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borysiewicz, M.; Potempski, S.; Galkowski, A.; Zelazny, R.

    2003-01-01

    This document describes two approaches to long-range atmospheric dispersion of pollutants based on the ensemble concept. In the first part of the report some experiences related to the exercises undertaken under the ENSEMBLE project of the European Union are presented. The second part is devoted to the implementation of mesoscale numerical prediction models RAMS and atmospheric dispersion model HYPACT on Beowulf cluster and theirs usage for ensemble forecasting and long range atmospheric ensemble dispersion calculations based on available meteorological data from NCEO, NOAA (USA). (author)

  10. A method for ensemble wildland fire simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark A. Finney; Isaac C. Grenfell; Charles W. McHugh; Robert C. Seli; Diane Trethewey; Richard D. Stratton; Stuart Brittain

    2011-01-01

    An ensemble simulation system that accounts for uncertainty in long-range weather conditions and two-dimensional wildland fire spread is described. Fuel moisture is expressed based on the energy release component, a US fire danger rating index, and its variation throughout the fire season is modeled using time series analysis of historical weather data. This analysis...

  11. Ensemble data assimilation in the Red Sea: sensitivity to ensemble selection and atmospheric forcing

    KAUST Repository

    Toye, Habib; Zhan, Peng; Gopalakrishnan, Ganesh; Kartadikaria, Aditya R.; Huang, Huang; Knio, Omar; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2017-01-01

    We present our efforts to build an ensemble data assimilation and forecasting system for the Red Sea. The system consists of the high-resolution Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) to simulate ocean circulation

  12. Short ensembles: an efficient method for discerning climate-relevant sensitivities in atmospheric general circulation models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Wan

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores the feasibility of an experimentation strategy for investigating sensitivities in fast components of atmospheric general circulation models. The basic idea is to replace the traditional serial-in-time long-term climate integrations by representative ensembles of shorter simulations. The key advantage of the proposed method lies in its efficiency: since fewer days of simulation are needed, the computational cost is less, and because individual realizations are independent and can be integrated simultaneously, the new dimension of parallelism can dramatically reduce the turnaround time in benchmark tests, sensitivities studies, and model tuning exercises. The strategy is not appropriate for exploring sensitivity of all model features, but it is very effective in many situations. Two examples are presented using the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5. In the first example, the method is used to characterize sensitivities of the simulated clouds to time-step length. Results show that 3-day ensembles of 20 to 50 members are sufficient to reproduce the main signals revealed by traditional 5-year simulations. A nudging technique is applied to an additional set of simulations to help understand the contribution of physics–dynamics interaction to the detected time-step sensitivity. In the second example, multiple empirical parameters related to cloud microphysics and aerosol life cycle are perturbed simultaneously in order to find out which parameters have the largest impact on the simulated global mean top-of-atmosphere radiation balance. It turns out that 12-member ensembles of 10-day simulations are able to reveal the same sensitivities as seen in 4-year simulations performed in a previous study. In both cases, the ensemble method reduces the total computational time by a factor of about 15, and the turnaround time by a factor of several hundred. The efficiency of the method makes it particularly useful for the development of

  13. Ensemble Atmospheric Properties of Small Planets around M Dwarfs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Xueying; Ballard, Sarah; Dragomir, Diana

    2018-01-01

    With the growing number of planets discovered by the Kepler mission and ground-base surveys, people start to try to understand the atmospheric features of those uncovered new worlds. While it has been found that hot Jupiters exhibit diverse atmosphere composition with both clear and cloudy/hazy atmosphere possible, similar studies on ensembles of smaller planets (Earth analogs) have been held up due to the faintness of most of their host stars. In this work, a sample of 20 Earth analogs of similar periods around M dwarfs with existing Kepler transit information and Spitzer observations is composed, complemented with previously studies GJ1214b and GJ1132b, as well as the recently announced 7 small planets in the TRAPPIST-1 system. We evaluate their transit depths with uncertainties on the Spitzer 4.5 micron band using the “pixel-level decorrelation” method, and together with their well analyzed Kepler data and Hubble data, we put constraints on their atmosphere haze slopes and cloud levels. Aside from improving the understanding of ensemble properties of small planets, this study will also provide clues of potential targets for detailed atmospheric studies using the upcoming James Webb Telescope.

  14. Estimation of the uncertainty of a climate model using an ensemble simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barth, A.; Mathiot, P.; Goosse, H.

    2012-04-01

    The atmospheric forcings play an important role in the study of the ocean and sea-ice dynamics of the Southern Ocean. Error in the atmospheric forcings will inevitably result in uncertain model results. The sensitivity of the model results to errors in the atmospheric forcings are studied with ensemble simulations using multivariate perturbations of the atmospheric forcing fields. The numerical ocean model used is the NEMO-LIM in a global configuration with an horizontal resolution of 2°. NCEP reanalyses are used to provide air temperature and wind data to force the ocean model over the last 50 years. A climatological mean is used to prescribe relative humidity, cloud cover and precipitation. In a first step, the model results is compared with OSTIA SST and OSI SAF sea ice concentration of the southern hemisphere. The seasonal behavior of the RMS difference and bias in SST and ice concentration is highlighted as well as the regions with relatively high RMS errors and biases such as the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and near the ice-edge. Ensemble simulations are performed to statistically characterize the model error due to uncertainties in the atmospheric forcings. Such information is a crucial element for future data assimilation experiments. Ensemble simulations are performed with perturbed air temperature and wind forcings. A Fourier decomposition of the NCEP wind vectors and air temperature for 2007 is used to generate ensemble perturbations. The perturbations are scaled such that the resulting ensemble spread matches approximately the RMS differences between the satellite SST and sea ice concentration. The ensemble spread and covariance are analyzed for the minimum and maximum sea ice extent. It is shown that errors in the atmospheric forcings can extend to several hundred meters in depth near the Antarctic Circumpolar Current.

  15. An educational model for ensemble streamflow simulation and uncertainty analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. AghaKouchak

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the hands-on modeling toolbox, HBV-Ensemble, designed as a complement to theoretical hydrology lectures, to teach hydrological processes and their uncertainties. The HBV-Ensemble can be used for in-class lab practices and homework assignments, and assessment of students' understanding of hydrological processes. Using this modeling toolbox, students can gain more insights into how hydrological processes (e.g., precipitation, snowmelt and snow accumulation, soil moisture, evapotranspiration and runoff generation are interconnected. The educational toolbox includes a MATLAB Graphical User Interface (GUI and an ensemble simulation scheme that can be used for teaching uncertainty analysis, parameter estimation, ensemble simulation and model sensitivity. HBV-Ensemble was administered in a class for both in-class instruction and a final project, and students submitted their feedback about the toolbox. The results indicate that this educational software had a positive impact on students understanding and knowledge of uncertainty in hydrological modeling.

  16. Short ensembles: An Efficient Method for Discerning Climate-relevant Sensitivities in Atmospheric General Circulation Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wan, Hui; Rasch, Philip J.; Zhang, Kai; Qian, Yun; Yan, Huiping; Zhao, Chun

    2014-09-08

    This paper explores the feasibility of an experimentation strategy for investigating sensitivities in fast components of atmospheric general circulation models. The basic idea is to replace the traditional serial-in-time long-term climate integrations by representative ensembles of shorter simulations. The key advantage of the proposed method lies in its efficiency: since fewer days of simulation are needed, the computational cost is less, and because individual realizations are independent and can be integrated simultaneously, the new dimension of parallelism can dramatically reduce the turnaround time in benchmark tests, sensitivities studies, and model tuning exercises. The strategy is not appropriate for exploring sensitivity of all model features, but it is very effective in many situations. Two examples are presented using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5. The first example demonstrates that the method is capable of characterizing the model cloud and precipitation sensitivity to time step length. A nudging technique is also applied to an additional set of simulations to help understand the contribution of physics-dynamics interaction to the detected time step sensitivity. In the second example, multiple empirical parameters related to cloud microphysics and aerosol lifecycle are perturbed simultaneously in order to explore which parameters have the largest impact on the simulated global mean top-of-atmosphere radiation balance. Results show that in both examples, short ensembles are able to correctly reproduce the main signals of model sensitivities revealed by traditional long-term climate simulations for fast processes in the climate system. The efficiency of the ensemble method makes it particularly useful for the development of high-resolution, costly and complex climate models.

  17. Bayesian ensemble refinement by replica simulations and reweighting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hummer, Gerhard; Köfinger, Jürgen

    2015-12-01

    We describe different Bayesian ensemble refinement methods, examine their interrelation, and discuss their practical application. With ensemble refinement, the properties of dynamic and partially disordered (bio)molecular structures can be characterized by integrating a wide range of experimental data, including measurements of ensemble-averaged observables. We start from a Bayesian formulation in which the posterior is a functional that ranks different configuration space distributions. By maximizing this posterior, we derive an optimal Bayesian ensemble distribution. For discrete configurations, this optimal distribution is identical to that obtained by the maximum entropy "ensemble refinement of SAXS" (EROS) formulation. Bayesian replica ensemble refinement enhances the sampling of relevant configurations by imposing restraints on averages of observables in coupled replica molecular dynamics simulations. We show that the strength of the restraints should scale linearly with the number of replicas to ensure convergence to the optimal Bayesian result in the limit of infinitely many replicas. In the "Bayesian inference of ensembles" method, we combine the replica and EROS approaches to accelerate the convergence. An adaptive algorithm can be used to sample directly from the optimal ensemble, without replicas. We discuss the incorporation of single-molecule measurements and dynamic observables such as relaxation parameters. The theoretical analysis of different Bayesian ensemble refinement approaches provides a basis for practical applications and a starting point for further investigations.

  18. A Simple Ensemble Simulation Technique for Assessment of Future Variations in Specific High-Impact Weather Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taniguchi, Kenji

    2018-04-01

    To investigate future variations in high-impact weather events, numerous samples are required. For the detailed assessment in a specific region, a high spatial resolution is also required. A simple ensemble simulation technique is proposed in this paper. In the proposed technique, new ensemble members were generated from one basic state vector and two perturbation vectors, which were obtained by lagged average forecasting simulations. Sensitivity experiments with different numbers of ensemble members, different simulation lengths, and different perturbation magnitudes were performed. Experimental application to a global warming study was also implemented for a typhoon event. Ensemble-mean results and ensemble spreads of total precipitation, atmospheric conditions showed similar characteristics across the sensitivity experiments. The frequencies of the maximum total and hourly precipitation also showed similar distributions. These results indicate the robustness of the proposed technique. On the other hand, considerable ensemble spread was found in each ensemble experiment. In addition, the results of the application to a global warming study showed possible variations in the future. These results indicate that the proposed technique is useful for investigating various meteorological phenomena and the impacts of global warming. The results of the ensemble simulations also enable the stochastic evaluation of differences in high-impact weather events. In addition, the impacts of a spectral nudging technique were also examined. The tracks of a typhoon were quite different between cases with and without spectral nudging; however, the ranges of the tracks among ensemble members were comparable. It indicates that spectral nudging does not necessarily suppress ensemble spread.

  19. EnsembleGraph: Interactive Visual Analysis of Spatial-Temporal Behavior for Ensemble Simulation Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shu, Qingya; Guo, Hanqi; Che, Limei; Yuan, Xiaoru; Liu, Junfeng; Liang, Jie

    2016-04-19

    We present a novel visualization framework—EnsembleGraph— for analyzing ensemble simulation data, in order to help scientists understand behavior similarities between ensemble members over space and time. A graph-based representation is used to visualize individual spatiotemporal regions with similar behaviors, which are extracted by hierarchical clustering algorithms. A user interface with multiple-linked views is provided, which enables users to explore, locate, and compare regions that have similar behaviors between and then users can investigate and analyze the selected regions in detail. The driving application of this paper is the studies on regional emission influences over tropospheric ozone, which is based on ensemble simulations conducted with different anthropogenic emission absences using the MOZART-4 (model of ozone and related tracers, version 4) model. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method by visualizing the MOZART-4 ensemble simulation data and evaluating the relative regional emission influences on tropospheric ozone concentrations. Positive feedbacks from domain experts and two case studies prove efficiency of our method.

  20. Protein folding simulations by generalized-ensemble algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoda, Takao; Sugita, Yuji; Okamoto, Yuko

    2014-01-01

    In the protein folding problem, conventional simulations in physical statistical mechanical ensembles, such as the canonical ensemble with fixed temperature, face a great difficulty. This is because there exist a huge number of local-minimum-energy states in the system and the conventional simulations tend to get trapped in these states, giving wrong results. Generalized-ensemble algorithms are based on artificial unphysical ensembles and overcome the above difficulty by performing random walks in potential energy, volume, and other physical quantities or their corresponding conjugate parameters such as temperature, pressure, etc. The advantage of generalized-ensemble simulations lies in the fact that they not only avoid getting trapped in states of energy local minima but also allows the calculations of physical quantities as functions of temperature or other parameters from a single simulation run. In this article we review the generalized-ensemble algorithms. Four examples, multicanonical algorithm, replica-exchange method, replica-exchange multicanonical algorithm, and multicanonical replica-exchange method, are described in detail. Examples of their applications to the protein folding problem are presented.

  1. Monte Carlo simulation of the microcanonical ensemble

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Creutz, M.

    1984-01-01

    We consider simulating statistical systems with a random walk on a constant energy surface. This combines features of deterministic molecular dynamics techniques and conventional Monte Carlo simulations. For discrete systems the method can be programmed to run an order of magnitude faster than other approaches. It does not require high quality random numbers and may also be useful for nonequilibrium studies. 10 references

  2. HIGH-RESOLUTION ATMOSPHERIC ENSEMBLE MODELING AT SRNL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buckley, R.; Werth, D.; Chiswell, S.; Etherton, B.

    2011-05-10

    The High-Resolution Mid-Atlantic Forecasting Ensemble (HME) is a federated effort to improve operational forecasts related to precipitation, convection and boundary layer evolution, and fire weather utilizing data and computing resources from a diverse group of cooperating institutions in order to create a mesoscale ensemble from independent members. Collaborating organizations involved in the project include universities, National Weather Service offices, and national laboratories, including the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL). The ensemble system is produced from an overlapping numerical weather prediction model domain and parameter subsets provided by each contributing member. The coordination, synthesis, and dissemination of the ensemble information are performed by the Renaissance Computing Institute (RENCI) at the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill. This paper discusses background related to the HME effort, SRNL participation, and example results available from the RENCI website.

  3. Land-total and Ocean-total Precipitation and Evaporation from a Community Atmosphere Model version 5 Perturbed Parameter Ensemble

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Covey, Curt [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Lucas, Donald D. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Trenberth, Kevin E. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2016-03-02

    This document presents the large scale water budget statistics of a perturbed input-parameter ensemble of atmospheric model runs. The model is Version 5.1.02 of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). These runs are the “C-Ensemble” described by Qian et al., “Parametric Sensitivity Analysis of Precipitation at Global and Local Scales in the Community Atmosphere Model CAM5” (Journal of Advances in Modeling the Earth System, 2015). As noted by Qian et al., the simulations are “AMIP type” with temperature and sea ice boundary conditions chosen to match surface observations for the five year period 2000-2004. There are 1100 ensemble members in addition to one run with default inputparameter values.

  4. Diagnostic budget study of the internal variability in ensemble simulations of the Canadian RCM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nikiema, Oumarou; Laprise, Rene [UQAM, Canadian Network for Regional Climate Modelling and Diagnostics, Centre ESCER, Departement des Sciences de la Terre et de l' Atmosphere, B.P. 8888, Montreal, QC (Canada)

    2011-06-15

    Due to the chaotic and nonlinear nature of the atmospheric dynamics, it is known that small differences in the initial conditions (IC) of models can grow and affect the simulation evolution. In this study, we perform a quantitative diagnostic budget calculation of the various diabatic and dynamical contributions to the time evolution and spatial distribution of internal variability (IV) in simulations with the nested Canadian Regional Climate Model. We establish prognostic budget equations of the IV for the potential temperature and the relative vorticity fields. For both of these variables, the IV equations present similar terms, notably terms relating to the transport of IV by ensemble-mean flow and to the covariance of fluctuations acting on the gradient of the ensemble-mean state. We show the skill of these equations to diagnose the IV that took place in an ensemble of 20 3-month (summer season) simulations that differed only in their IC. Our study suggests that the dominant terms responsible for the large increase of IV are either the covariance term involving the potential temperature fluctuations and diabatic heating fluctuations, or the covariance of inter-member fluctuations acting upon ensemble-mean gradients. Our results also show that, on average, the third-order terms are negligible, but they can become important when the IV is large. (orig.)

  5. Iterative ensemble variational methods for nonlinear data assimilation: Application to transport and atmospheric chemistry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haussaire, Jean-Matthieu

    2017-01-01

    Data assimilation methods are constantly evolving to adapt to the various application domains. In atmospheric sciences, each new algorithm has first been implemented on numerical weather prediction models before being ported to atmospheric chemistry models. It has been the case for 4D variational methods and ensemble Kalman filters for instance. The new 4D ensemble variational methods (4D EnVar) are no exception. They were developed to take advantage of both variational and ensemble approaches and they are starting to be used in operational weather prediction centers, but have yet to be tested on operational atmospheric chemistry models. The validation of new data assimilation methods on these models is indeed difficult because of the complexity of such models. It is hence necessary to have at our disposal low-order models capable of synthetically reproducing key physical phenomena from operational models while limiting some of their hardships. Such a model, called L95-GRS, has therefore been developed. Il combines the simple meteorology from the Lorenz-95 model to a tropospheric ozone chemistry module with 7 chemical species. Even though it is of low dimension, it reproduces some of the physical and chemical phenomena observable in real situations. A data assimilation method, the iterative ensemble Kalman smoother (IEnKS), has been applied to this model. It is an iterative 4D EnVar method which solves the full non-linear variational problem. This application validates 4D EnVar methods in the context of non-linear atmospheric chemistry, but also raises the first limits of such methods, most noticeably when they are applied to weakly coupled stable models. After this experiment, results have been extended to a realistic atmospheric pollution prediction model. 4D EnVar methods, via the IEnKS, have once again shown their potential to take into account the non-linearity of the chemistry model in a controlled environment, with synthetic observations. However, the

  6. Geometric integrator for simulations in the canonical ensemble

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tapias, Diego, E-mail: diego.tapias@nucleares.unam.mx [Departamento de Física, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad Universitaria, Ciudad de México 04510 (Mexico); Sanders, David P., E-mail: dpsanders@ciencias.unam.mx [Departamento de Física, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad Universitaria, Ciudad de México 04510 (Mexico); Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139 (United States); Bravetti, Alessandro, E-mail: alessandro.bravetti@iimas.unam.mx [Instituto de Investigaciones en Matemáticas Aplicadas y en Sistemas, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad Universitaria, Ciudad de México 04510 (Mexico)

    2016-08-28

    We introduce a geometric integrator for molecular dynamics simulations of physical systems in the canonical ensemble that preserves the invariant distribution in equations arising from the density dynamics algorithm, with any possible type of thermostat. Our integrator thus constitutes a unified framework that allows the study and comparison of different thermostats and of their influence on the equilibrium and non-equilibrium (thermo-)dynamic properties of a system. To show the validity and the generality of the integrator, we implement it with a second-order, time-reversible method and apply it to the simulation of a Lennard-Jones system with three different thermostats, obtaining good conservation of the geometrical properties and recovering the expected thermodynamic results. Moreover, to show the advantage of our geometric integrator over a non-geometric one, we compare the results with those obtained by using the non-geometric Gear integrator, which is frequently used to perform simulations in the canonical ensemble. The non-geometric integrator induces a drift in the invariant quantity, while our integrator has no such drift, thus ensuring that the system is effectively sampling the correct ensemble.

  7. Geometric integrator for simulations in the canonical ensemble

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tapias, Diego; Sanders, David P.; Bravetti, Alessandro

    2016-01-01

    We introduce a geometric integrator for molecular dynamics simulations of physical systems in the canonical ensemble that preserves the invariant distribution in equations arising from the density dynamics algorithm, with any possible type of thermostat. Our integrator thus constitutes a unified framework that allows the study and comparison of different thermostats and of their influence on the equilibrium and non-equilibrium (thermo-)dynamic properties of a system. To show the validity and the generality of the integrator, we implement it with a second-order, time-reversible method and apply it to the simulation of a Lennard-Jones system with three different thermostats, obtaining good conservation of the geometrical properties and recovering the expected thermodynamic results. Moreover, to show the advantage of our geometric integrator over a non-geometric one, we compare the results with those obtained by using the non-geometric Gear integrator, which is frequently used to perform simulations in the canonical ensemble. The non-geometric integrator induces a drift in the invariant quantity, while our integrator has no such drift, thus ensuring that the system is effectively sampling the correct ensemble.

  8. Coupled atmosphere and land-surface assimilation of surface observations with a single column model and ensemble data assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rostkier-Edelstein, Dorita; Hacker, Joshua P.; Snyder, Chris

    2014-05-01

    Numerical weather prediction and data assimilation models are composed of coupled atmosphere and land-surface (LS) components. If possible, the assimilation procedure should be coupled so that observed information in one module is used to correct fields in the coupled module. There have been some attempts in this direction using optimal interpolation, nudging and 2/3DVAR data assimilation techniques. Aside from satellite remote sensed observations, reference height in-situ observations of temperature and moisture have been used in these studies. Among other problems, difficulties in coupled atmosphere and LS assimilation arise as a result of the different time scales characteristic of each component and the unsteady correlation between these components under varying flow conditions. Ensemble data-assimilation techniques rely on flow dependent observations-model covariances. Provided that correlations and covariances between land and atmosphere can be adequately simulated and sampled, ensemble data assimilation should enable appropriate assimilation of observations simultaneously into the atmospheric and LS states. Our aim is to explore assimilation of reference height in-situ temperature and moisture observations into the coupled atmosphere-LS modules(simultaneously) in NCAR's WRF-ARW model using the NCAR's DART ensemble data-assimilation system. Observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) are performed using the single column model (SCM) version of WRF. Numerical experiments during a warm season are centered on an atmospheric and soil column in the South Great Plains. Synthetic observations are derived from "truth" WRF-SCM runs for a given date,initialized and forced using North American Regional Reanalyses (NARR). WRF-SCM atmospheric and LS ensembles are created by mixing the atmospheric and soil NARR profile centered on a given date with that from another day (randomly chosen from the same season) with weights drawn from a logit-normal distribution. Three

  9. Non-Boltzmann Ensembles and Monte Carlo Simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murthy, K. P. N.

    2016-01-01

    Boltzmann sampling based on Metropolis algorithm has been extensively used for simulating a canonical ensemble and for calculating macroscopic properties of a closed system at desired temperatures. An estimate of a mechanical property, like energy, of an equilibrium system, is made by averaging over a large number microstates generated by Boltzmann Monte Carlo methods. This is possible because we can assign a numerical value for energy to each microstate. However, a thermal property like entropy, is not easily accessible to these methods. The reason is simple. We can not assign a numerical value for entropy, to a microstate. Entropy is not a property associated with any single microstate. It is a collective property of all the microstates. Toward calculating entropy and other thermal properties, a non-Boltzmann Monte Carlo technique called Umbrella sampling was proposed some forty years ago. Umbrella sampling has since undergone several metamorphoses and we have now, multi-canonical Monte Carlo, entropic sampling, flat histogram methods, Wang-Landau algorithm etc . This class of methods generates non-Boltzmann ensembles which are un-physical. However, physical quantities can be calculated as follows. First un-weight a microstates of the entropic ensemble; then re-weight it to the desired physical ensemble. Carry out weighted average over the entropic ensemble to estimate physical quantities. In this talk I shall tell you of the most recent non- Boltzmann Monte Carlo method and show how to calculate free energy for a few systems. We first consider estimation of free energy as a function of energy at different temperatures to characterize phase transition in an hairpin DNA in the presence of an unzipping force. Next we consider free energy as a function of order parameter and to this end we estimate density of states g ( E , M ), as a function of both energy E , and order parameter M . This is carried out in two stages. We estimate g ( E ) in the first stage

  10. Dispersion of aerosol particles in the free atmosphere using ensemble forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Haszpra

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The dispersion of aerosol particle pollutants is studied using 50 members of an ensemble forecast in the example of a hypothetical free atmospheric emission above Fukushima over a period of 2.5 days. Considerable differences are found among the dispersion predictions of the different ensemble members, as well as between the ensemble mean and the deterministic result at the end of the observation period. The variance is found to decrease with the particle size. The geographical area where a threshold concentration is exceeded in at least one ensemble member expands to a 5–10 times larger region than the area from the deterministic forecast, both for air column "concentration" and in the "deposition" field. We demonstrate that the root-mean-square distance of any particle from its own clones in the ensemble members can reach values on the order of one thousand kilometers. Even the centers of mass of the particle cloud of the ensemble members deviate considerably from that obtained by the deterministic forecast. All these indicate that an investigation of the dispersion of aerosol particles in the spirit of ensemble forecast contains useful hints for the improvement of risk assessment.

  11. An ensemble approach to simulate CO2 emissions from natural fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eliseev, A. V.; Mokhov, I. I.; Chernokulsky, A. V.

    2014-06-01

    This paper presents ensemble simulations with the global climate model developed at the A. M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS CM). These simulations are forced by historical reconstructions of concentrations of well-mixed greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, and N2O), sulfate aerosols (both in the troposphere and stratosphere), extent of crops and pastures, and total solar irradiance for AD 850-2005 (hereafter all years are taken as being AD) and by the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios for the same forcing agents until the year 2300. Our model implements GlobFIRM (Global FIRe Model) as a scheme for calculating characteristics of natural fires. Comparing to the original GlobFIRM model, in our implementation, the scheme is extended by a module accounting for CO2 release from soil during fires. The novel approach of our paper is to simulate natural fires in an ensemble fashion. Different ensemble members in the present paper are constructed by varying the values of parameters of the natural fires module. These members are constrained by the GFED-3.1 data set for the burnt area and CO2 release from fires and further subjected to Bayesian averaging. Our simulations are the first coupled model assessment of future changes in gross characteristics of natural fires. In our model, the present-day (1998-2011) global area burnt due to natural fires is (2.1 ± 0.4) × 106 km2 yr-1 (ensemble mean and intra-ensemble standard deviation are presented), and the respective CO2 emissions to the atmosphere are (1.4 ± 0.2) Pg C yr-1. The latter value is in agreement with the corresponding GFED estimates. The area burnt by natural fires is generally larger than the GFED estimates except in boreal Eurasia, where it is realistic, and in Australia, where it is smaller than these estimates. Regionally, the modelled CO2 emissions are larger (smaller) than the GFED estimates in Europe (in the tropics and north-eastern Eurasia). From

  12. Model for Simulation Atmospheric Turbulence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundtang Petersen, Erik

    1976-01-01

    A method that produces realistic simulations of atmospheric turbulence is developed and analyzed. The procedure makes use of a generalized spectral analysis, often called a proper orthogonal decomposition or the Karhunen-Loève expansion. A set of criteria, emphasizing a realistic appearance...... eigenfunctions and estimates of the distributions of the corresponding expansion coefficients. The simulation method utilizes the eigenfunction expansion procedure to produce preliminary time histories of the three velocity components simultaneously. As a final step, a spectral shaping procedure is then applied....... The method is unique in modeling the three velocity components simultaneously, and it is found that important cross-statistical features are reasonably well-behaved. It is concluded that the model provides a practical, operational simulator of atmospheric turbulence....

  13. SSAGES: Software Suite for Advanced General Ensemble Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sidky, Hythem; Colón, Yamil J.; Helfferich, Julian; Sikora, Benjamin J.; Bezik, Cody; Chu, Weiwei; Giberti, Federico; Guo, Ashley Z.; Jiang, Xikai; Lequieu, Joshua; Li, Jiyuan; Moller, Joshua; Quevillon, Michael J.; Rahimi, Mohammad; Ramezani-Dakhel, Hadi; Rathee, Vikramjit S.; Reid, Daniel R.; Sevgen, Emre; Thapar, Vikram; Webb, Michael A.; Whitmer, Jonathan K.; de Pablo, Juan J.

    2018-01-01

    Molecular simulation has emerged as an essential tool for modern-day research, but obtaining proper results and making reliable conclusions from simulations requires adequate sampling of the system under consideration. To this end, a variety of methods exist in the literature that can enhance sampling considerably, and increasingly sophisticated, effective algorithms continue to be developed at a rapid pace. Implementation of these techniques, however, can be challenging for experts and non-experts alike. There is a clear need for software that provides rapid, reliable, and easy access to a wide range of advanced sampling methods and that facilitates implementation of new techniques as they emerge. Here we present SSAGES, a publicly available Software Suite for Advanced General Ensemble Simulations designed to interface with multiple widely used molecular dynamics simulations packages. SSAGES allows facile application of a variety of enhanced sampling techniques—including adaptive biasing force, string methods, and forward flux sampling—that extract meaningful free energy and transition path data from all-atom and coarse-grained simulations. A noteworthy feature of SSAGES is a user-friendly framework that facilitates further development and implementation of new methods and collective variables. In this work, the use of SSAGES is illustrated in the context of simple representative applications involving distinct methods and different collective variables that are available in the current release of the suite. The code may be found at: https://github.com/MICCoM/SSAGES-public.

  14. SSAGES: Software Suite for Advanced General Ensemble Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sidky, Hythem [Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana 46556, USA; Colón, Yamil J. [Institute for Molecular Engineering, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois 60637, USA; Institute for Molecular Engineering and Materials Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Lemont, Illinois 60439, USA; Helfferich, Julian [Institute for Molecular Engineering, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois 60637, USA; Steinbuch Center for Computing, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Hermann-von-Helmholtz-Platz 1, 76344 Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen, Germany; Sikora, Benjamin J. [Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana 46556, USA; Bezik, Cody [Institute for Molecular Engineering, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois 60637, USA; Chu, Weiwei [Institute for Molecular Engineering, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois 60637, USA; Giberti, Federico [Institute for Molecular Engineering, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois 60637, USA; Guo, Ashley Z. [Institute for Molecular Engineering, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois 60637, USA; Jiang, Xikai [Institute for Molecular Engineering, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois 60637, USA; Lequieu, Joshua [Institute for Molecular Engineering, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois 60637, USA; Li, Jiyuan [Institute for Molecular Engineering, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois 60637, USA; Moller, Joshua [Institute for Molecular Engineering, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois 60637, USA; Quevillon, Michael J. [Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana 46556, USA; Rahimi, Mohammad [Institute for Molecular Engineering, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois 60637, USA; Ramezani-Dakhel, Hadi [Institute for Molecular Engineering, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois 60637, USA; Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois 60637, USA; Rathee, Vikramjit S. [Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana 46556, USA; Reid, Daniel R. [Institute for Molecular Engineering, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois 60637, USA; Sevgen, Emre [Institute for Molecular Engineering, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois 60637, USA; Thapar, Vikram [Institute for Molecular Engineering, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois 60637, USA; Webb, Michael A. [Institute for Molecular Engineering, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois 60637, USA; Institute for Molecular Engineering and Materials Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Lemont, Illinois 60439, USA; Whitmer, Jonathan K. [Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana 46556, USA; de Pablo, Juan J. [Institute for Molecular Engineering, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois 60637, USA; Institute for Molecular Engineering and Materials Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Lemont, Illinois 60439, USA

    2018-01-28

    Molecular simulation has emerged as an essential tool for modern-day research, but obtaining proper results and making reliable conclusions from simulations requires adequate sampling of the system under consideration. To this end, a variety of methods exist in the literature that can enhance sampling considerably, and increasingly sophisticated, effective algorithms continue to be developed at a rapid pace. Implementation of these techniques, however, can be challenging for experts and non-experts alike. There is a clear need for software that provides rapid, reliable, and easy access to a wide range of advanced sampling methods, and that facilitates implementation of new techniques as they emerge. Here we present SSAGES, a publicly available Software Suite for Advanced General Ensemble Simulations designed to interface with multiple widely used molecular dynamics simulations packages. SSAGES allows facile application of a variety of enhanced sampling techniques—including adaptive biasing force, string methods, and forward flux sampling—that extract meaningful free energy and transition path data from all-atom and coarse grained simulations. A noteworthy feature of SSAGES is a user-friendly framework that facilitates further development and implementation of new methods and collective variables. In this work, the use of SSAGES is illustrated in the context of simple representative applications involving distinct methods and different collective variables that are available in the current release of the suite.

  15. Simulating Quantitative Cellular Responses Using Asynchronous Threshold Boolean Network Ensembles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shah Imran

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background With increasing knowledge about the potential mechanisms underlying cellular functions, it is becoming feasible to predict the response of biological systems to genetic and environmental perturbations. Due to the lack of homogeneity in living tissues it is difficult to estimate the physiological effect of chemicals, including potential toxicity. Here we investigate a biologically motivated model for estimating tissue level responses by aggregating the behavior of a cell population. We assume that the molecular state of individual cells is independently governed by discrete non-deterministic signaling mechanisms. This results in noisy but highly reproducible aggregate level responses that are consistent with experimental data. Results We developed an asynchronous threshold Boolean network simulation algorithm to model signal transduction in a single cell, and then used an ensemble of these models to estimate the aggregate response across a cell population. Using published data, we derived a putative crosstalk network involving growth factors and cytokines - i.e., Epidermal Growth Factor, Insulin, Insulin like Growth Factor Type 1, and Tumor Necrosis Factor α - to describe early signaling events in cell proliferation signal transduction. Reproducibility of the modeling technique across ensembles of Boolean networks representing cell populations is investigated. Furthermore, we compare our simulation results to experimental observations of hepatocytes reported in the literature. Conclusion A systematic analysis of the results following differential stimulation of this model by growth factors and cytokines suggests that: (a using Boolean network ensembles with asynchronous updating provides biologically plausible noisy individual cellular responses with reproducible mean behavior for large cell populations, and (b with sufficient data our model can estimate the response to different concentrations of extracellular ligands. Our

  16. Visualization and classification of physiological failure modes in ensemble hemorrhage simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Song; Pruett, William Andrew; Hester, Robert

    2015-01-01

    In an emergency situation such as hemorrhage, doctors need to predict which patients need immediate treatment and care. This task is difficult because of the diverse response to hemorrhage in human population. Ensemble physiological simulations provide a means to sample a diverse range of subjects and may have a better chance of containing the correct solution. However, to reveal the patterns and trends from the ensemble simulation is a challenging task. We have developed a visualization framework for ensemble physiological simulations. The visualization helps users identify trends among ensemble members, classify ensemble member into subpopulations for analysis, and provide prediction to future events by matching a new patient's data to existing ensembles. We demonstrated the effectiveness of the visualization on simulated physiological data. The lessons learned here can be applied to clinically-collected physiological data in the future.

  17. MACC regional multi-model ensemble simulations of birch pollen dispersion in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sofiev, M.; Berger, U.; Prank, M.; Vira, J.; Arteta, J.; Belmonte, J.; Bergmann, K.C.; Chéroux, F.; Elbern, H.; Friese, E.; Galan, C.; Gehrig, R.; Khvorostyanov, D.; Kranenburg, R.; Kumar, U.; Marécal, V.; Meleux, F.; Menut, L.; Pessi, A.M.; Robertson, L.; Ritenberga, O.; Rodinkova, V.; Saarto, A.; Segers, A.; Severova, E.; Sauliene, I.; Siljamo, P.; Steensen, B.M.; Teinemaa, E.; Thibaudon, M.; Peuch, V.H.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents the first ensemble modelling experiment in relation to birch pollen in Europe. The seven-model European ensemble of MACC-ENS, tested in trial simulations over the flowering season of 2010, was run through the flowering season of 2013. The simulations have been compared with

  18. Transient Atmospheric Circulation Changes in a Grand ensemble of Idealized CO2 Increase Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karpechko, A.; Manzini, E.; Kornblueh, L.

    2017-12-01

    The yearly evolution with increasing forcing of the large-scale atmospheric circulation is examined in a 68-member ensemble of 1pctCO2 scenario experiments performed with the MPI-ESM model. Each member of the experiment ensemble is integrated for 155 years, from initial conditions taken from a 2000-yr long pre-industrial control climate experiment. The 1pctCO2 scenario experiments are conducted following the protocol of including as external forcing only a CO2 concentration increase at 1%/year, till quadrupling of CO2 concentrations. MPI-ESM is the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (including coupling between the atmosphere, ocean and seaice). By averaging over the 68 members (ensemble mean), atmospheric variability is greatly reduced. Thus, it is possible to investigate the sensitivity to the climate state of the atmospheric response to CO2 doubling. Indicators of global change show the expected monotonic evolution with increasing CO2 and a weak dependence of the thermodynamical response to CO2 doubling on the climate state. The surface climate response of the atmospheric circulation, diagnosed for instance by the pressure at sea level, and the eddy-driven jet response show instead a marked dependence to the climate state, for the Northern winter season. We find that as the CO2 concentration increases above doubling, Northern winter trends in some indicators of atmospheric circulation changes decrease or even reverse, posing the question on what are the causes of this nonlinear behavior. The investigation of the role of stationary waves, the meridional overturning circulation, the decrease in Arctic sea ice and the stratospheric vortex points to the latter as a plausible cause of such nonlinear response.

  19. Assessing uncertainties in crop and pasture ensemble model simulations of productivity and N2O emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simulation models are extensively used to predict agricultural productivity and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, the uncertainties of (reduced) model ensemble simulations have not been assessed systematically for variables affecting food security and climate change mitigation, within multisp...

  20. Can the confidence in long range atmospheric transport models be increased? The pan European experience of ensemble

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galmarini, S.; Bianconi, R.; Mikkelsen, T.

    2003-01-01

    Full text: In the unfortunate event of an accidental release of radioactive material to the environment, the first concern for early-phase emergency response is atmospheric dispersion. For this purpose, several countries worldwide use operational Long Range Atmospheric Transport (LRAT) models to produce predictions of the event evolution over the continental scale to determine whether, when and how the radioactive cloud is going to hit their country. While presenting the multi-model ensemble dispersion forecast system (ENSEMBLE), the paper seeks to answer the following questions: is atmospheric dispersion forecasting an important asset of the early-phase emergency response management?; Is there a 'Perfect Atmospheric Dispersion Model'?; Is there a way to make the results of dispersion models more reliable and trustworthy? Several activities conducted during the 1990's, sought to estimate quantitatively the capability of LRAT models to forecast the atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides in the atmosphere. The results obtained clearly demonstrated that: the predictions of the various operational LRAT models used worldwide do not systematically agree (mainly due to conceptual differences in model structure and differences in the meteorological forecasts used to simulate the dispersion); none of the models used in the various countries is better than others under all circumstances and therefore there is no objective indication that shows one or few models to be the 'perfect model/s'. Given the realistic scenario that an accident can take place any time, any national authority is however faced with the practical need of managing the emergency and therefore with the dilemma: 'shall one rely an a LRAT model or only an the now cast provided by a monitoring network?' and 'to what extent are a model predictions going to be deceptive in the decision making process?' Since it goes without saying that even a vague idea an the future evolution of a dispersion process is better

  1. Modified ensemble Kalman filter for nuclear accident atmospheric dispersion: prediction improved and source estimated.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, X L; Su, G F; Yuan, H Y; Chen, J G; Huang, Q Y

    2014-09-15

    Atmospheric dispersion models play an important role in nuclear power plant accident management. A reliable estimation of radioactive material distribution in short range (about 50 km) is in urgent need for population sheltering and evacuation planning. However, the meteorological data and the source term which greatly influence the accuracy of the atmospheric dispersion models are usually poorly known at the early phase of the emergency. In this study, a modified ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation method in conjunction with a Lagrangian puff-model is proposed to simultaneously improve the model prediction and reconstruct the source terms for short range atmospheric dispersion using the off-site environmental monitoring data. Four main uncertainty parameters are considered: source release rate, plume rise height, wind speed and wind direction. Twin experiments show that the method effectively improves the predicted concentration distribution, and the temporal profiles of source release rate and plume rise height are also successfully reconstructed. Moreover, the time lag in the response of ensemble Kalman filter is shortened. The method proposed here can be a useful tool not only in the nuclear power plant accident emergency management but also in other similar situation where hazardous material is released into the atmosphere. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Computer simulations of the atmospheric composition climate of Bulgaria

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gadzhev, G.; Ganev, K.; Syrkov, D.; Prodanova, M.; Georgieva, I.; Georgiev, G.

    2015-07-01

    Some extensive numerical simulations of the atmospheric composition fields in Bulgaria have been recently performed. The US EPA Model-3 system was chosen as a modelling tool. As the NCEP Global Analysis Data with 1 degree resolution was used as meteorological background, the MM5 and CMAQ nesting capabilities were applied for downscaling the simulations to a 3 km resolution over Bulgaria. The TNO emission inventory was used as emission input. Special pre-processing procedures are created for introducing temporal profiles and speciation of the emissions. The biogenic emissions of VOC are estimated by the model SMOKE. The simulations were carried out for years 2000-2007. The numerical experiments have been carried out for different emission scenarios, which makes it possible the contribution of emissions from different source categories to be evaluated. The Models-3 “Integrated Process Rate Analysis” option is applied to discriminate the role of different dynamic and chemical processes for the air pollution formation. The obtained ensemble of numerical simulation results is extensive enough to allow statistical treatment – calculating not only the mean concentrations and different source categories contribution mean fields, but also standard deviations, skewness, etc. with their dominant temporal modes (seasonal and/or diurnal variations). Thus some basic facts about the atmospheric composition climate of Bulgaria can be retrieved from the simulation ensemble. (Author)

  3. Computer simulations of the atmospheric composition climate of Bulgaria

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gadzhev, G.; Ganev, K.; Syrakov, D.; Prodanova, M.; Georgieva, I.; Georgiev, G.

    2015-07-01

    Some extensive numerical simulations of the atmospheric composition fields in Bulgaria have been recently performed. The US EPA Model-3 system was chosen as a modelling tool. As the NCEP Global Analysis Data with 1 degree resolution was used as meteorological background, the MM5 and CMAQ nesting capabilities were applied for downscaling the simulations to a 3 km resolution over Bulgaria. The TNO emission inventory was used as emission input. Special pre-processing procedures are created for introducing temporal profiles and speciation of the emissions. The biogenic emissions of VOC are estimated by the model SMOKE. The simulations were carried out for years 2000-2007. The numerical experiments have been carried out for different emission scenarios, which makes it possible the contribution of emissions from different source categories to be evaluated. The Models-3 Integrated Process Rate Analysis option is applied to discriminate the role of different dynamic and chemical processes for the air pollution formation. The obtained ensemble of numerical simulation results is extensive enough to allow statistical treatment calculating not only the mean concentrations and different source categories contribution mean fields, but also standard deviations, skewness, etc. with their dominant temporal modes (seasonal and/or diurnal variations). Thus some basic facts about the atmospheric composition climate of Bulgaria can be retrieved from the simulation ensemble. (Author)

  4. A brief history of the introduction of generalized ensembles to Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Bernd A.

    2017-03-01

    The most efficient weights for Markov chain Monte Carlo calculations of physical observables are not necessarily those of the canonical ensemble. Generalized ensembles, which do not exist in nature but can be simulated on computers, lead often to a much faster convergence. In particular, they have been used for simulations of first order phase transitions and for simulations of complex systems in which conflicting constraints lead to a rugged free energy landscape. Starting off with the Metropolis algorithm and Hastings' extension, I present a minireview which focuses on the explosive use of generalized ensembles in the early 1990s. Illustrations are given, which range from spin models to peptides.

  5. Influence of land-atmosphere feedbacks on temperature and precipitation extremes in the GLACE-CMIP5 ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenz, Ruth; Argueso, Daniel; Donat, Markus G.; Pitman, Andrew J.; van den Hurk, Bart; Berg, Alexis; Lawrence, David M.; Cheruy, Frederique; Ducharne, Agnes; Hagemann, Stefan; Meier, Arndt; Milly, Paul C.D.; Seneviratne, Sonia I

    2016-01-01

    We examine how soil moisture variability and trends affect the simulation of temperature and precipitation extremes in six global climate models using the experimental protocol of the Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (GLACE-CMIP5). This protocol enables separate examinations of the influences of soil moisture variability and trends on the intensity, frequency, and duration of climate extremes by the end of the 21st century under a business-as-usual (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) emission scenario. Removing soil moisture variability significantly reduces temperature extremes over most continental surfaces, while wet precipitation extremes are enhanced in the tropics. Projected drying trends in soil moisture lead to increases in intensity, frequency, and duration of temperature extremes by the end of the 21st century. Wet precipitation extremes are decreased in the tropics with soil moisture trends in the simulations, while dry extremes are enhanced in some regions, in particular the Mediterranean and Australia. However, the ensemble results mask considerable differences in the soil moisture trends simulated by the six climate models. We find that the large differences between the models in soil moisture trends, which are related to an unknown combination of differences in atmospheric forcing (precipitation, net radiation), flux partitioning at the land surface, and how soil moisture is parameterized, imply considerable uncertainty in future changes in climate extremes.

  6. Multilevel Monte Carlo methods using ensemble level mixed MsFEM for two-phase flow and transport simulations

    KAUST Repository

    Efendiev, Yalchin R.; Iliev, Oleg; Kronsbein, C.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we propose multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods that use ensemble level mixed multiscale methods in the simulations of multiphase flow and transport. The contribution of this paper is twofold: (1) a design of ensemble level mixed

  7. Arctic climate change in an ensemble of regional CORDEX simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Torben Koenigk

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Fifth phase Climate Model Intercomparison Project historical and scenario simulations from four global climate models (GCMs using the Representative Concentration Pathways greenhouse gas concentration trajectories RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are downscaled over the Arctic with the regional Rossby Centre Atmosphere model (RCA. The regional model simulations largely reflect the circulation bias patterns of the driving global models in the historical period, indicating the importance of lateral and lower boundary conditions. However, local differences occur as a reduced winter 2-m air temperature bias over the Arctic Ocean and increased cold biases over land areas in RCA. The projected changes are dominated by a strong warming in the Arctic, exceeding 15°K in autumn and winter over the Arctic Ocean in RCP8.5, strongly increased precipitation and reduced sea-level pressure. Near-surface temperature and precipitation are linearly related in the Arctic. The wintertime inversion strength is reduced, leading to a less stable stratification of the Arctic atmosphere. The diurnal temperature range is reduced in all seasons. The large-scale change patterns are dominated by the surface and lateral boundary conditions so future response is similar in RCA and the driving global models. However, the warming over the Arctic Ocean is smaller in RCA; the warming over land is larger in winter and spring but smaller in summer. The future response of winter cloud cover is opposite in RCA and the GCMs. Precipitation changes in RCA are much larger during summer than in the global models and more small-scale change patterns occur.

  8. The GMAO Hybrid Ensemble-Variational Atmospheric Data Assimilation System: Version 2.0

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todling, Ricardo; El Akkraoui, Amal

    2018-01-01

    This document describes the implementation and usage of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Hybrid Ensemble-Variational Atmospheric Data Assimilation System (Hybrid EVADAS). Its aim is to provide comprehensive guidance to users of GEOS ADAS interested in experimenting with its hybrid functionalities. The document is also aimed at providing a short summary of the state-of-science in this release of the hybrid system. As explained here, the ensemble data assimilation system (EnADAS) mechanism added to GEOS ADAS to enable hybrid data assimilation applications has been introduced to the pre-existing machinery of GEOS in the most non-intrusive possible way. Only very minor changes have been made to the original scripts controlling GEOS ADAS with the objective of facilitating its usage by both researchers and the GMAO's near-real-time Forward Processing applications. In a hybrid scenario two data assimilation systems run concurrently in a two-way feedback mode such that: the ensemble provides background ensemble perturbations required by the ADAS deterministic (typically high resolution) hybrid analysis; and the deterministic ADAS provides analysis information for recentering of the EnADAS analyses and information necessary to ensure that observation bias correction procedures are consistent between both the deterministic ADAS and the EnADAS. The nonintrusive approach to introducing hybrid capability to GEOS ADAS means, in particular, that previously existing features continue to be available. Thus, not only is this upgraded version of GEOS ADAS capable of supporting new applications such as Hybrid 3D-Var, 3D-EnVar, 4D-EnVar and Hybrid 4D-EnVar, it remains possible to use GEOS ADAS in its traditional 3D-Var mode which has been used in both MERRA and MERRA-2. Furthermore, as described in this document, GEOS ADAS also supports a configuration for exercising a purely ensemble-based assimilation strategy which can be fully decoupled from its variational component. We

  9. The egg model - a geological ensemble for reservoir simulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jansen, J.D.; Fonseca, R.M.; Kahrobaei, S.; Siraj, M.M.; Essen, van G.M.; Hof, Van den P.M.J.

    2014-01-01

    The ‘Egg Model’ is a synthetic reservoir model consisting of an ensemble of 101 relatively small three-dimensional realizations of a channelized oil reservoir produced under water flooding conditions with eight water injectors and four oil producers. It has been used in numerous publications to

  10. Improving wind energy forecasts using an Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation technique in a fully coupled hydrologic and atmospheric model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, J. L.; Maxwell, R. M.; Delle Monache, L.

    2012-12-01

    Wind power is rapidly gaining prominence as a major source of renewable energy. Harnessing this promising energy source is challenging because of the chaotic nature of wind and its propensity to change speed and direction over short time scales. Accurate forecasting tools are critical to support the integration of wind energy into power grids and to maximize its impact on renewable energy portfolios. Numerous studies have shown that soil moisture distribution and land surface vegetative processes profoundly influence atmospheric boundary layer development and weather processes on local and regional scales. Using the PF.WRF model, a fully-coupled hydrologic and atmospheric model employing the ParFlow hydrologic model with the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled via mass and energy fluxes across the land surface, we have explored the connections between the land surface and the atmosphere in terms of land surface energy flux partitioning and coupled variable fields including hydraulic conductivity, soil moisture and wind speed, and demonstrated that reductions in uncertainty in these coupled fields propagate through the hydrologic and atmospheric system. We have adapted the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART), an implementation of the robust Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation algorithm, to expand our capability to nudge forecasts produced with the PF.WRF model using observational data. Using a semi-idealized simulation domain, we examine the effects of assimilating observations of variables such as wind speed and temperature collected in the atmosphere, and land surface and subsurface observations such as soil moisture on the quality of forecast outputs. The sensitivities we find in this study will enable further studies to optimize observation collection to maximize the utility of the PF.WRF-DART forecasting system.

  11. Preliminary Assessment of Tecplot Chorus for Analyzing Ensemble of CTH Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Agelastos, Anthony Michael [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Stevenson, Joel O. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Attaway, Stephen W. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Peterson, David

    2015-04-01

    The exploration of large parameter spaces in search of problem solution and uncertainty quantifcation produces very large ensembles of data. Processing ensemble data will continue to require more resources as simulation complexity and HPC platform throughput increase. More tools are needed to help provide rapid insight into these data sets to decrease manual processing time by the analyst and to increase knowledge the data can provide. One such tool is Tecplot Chorus, whose strengths are visualizing ensemble metadata and linked images. This report contains the analysis and conclusions from evaluating Tecplot Chorus with an example problem that is relevant to Sandia National Laboratories.

  12. Global atmospheric carbon budget: results from an ensemble of atmospheric CO2 inversions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Peylin

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric CO2 inversions estimate surface carbon fluxes from an optimal fit to atmospheric CO2 measurements, usually including prior constraints on the flux estimates. Eleven sets of carbon flux estimates are compared, generated by different inversions systems that vary in their inversions methods, choice of atmospheric data, transport model and prior information. The inversions were run for at least 5 yr in the period between 1990 and 2010. Mean fluxes for 2001–2004, seasonal cycles, interannual variability and trends are compared for the tropics and northern and southern extra-tropics, and separately for land and ocean. Some continental/basin-scale subdivisions are also considered where the atmospheric network is denser. Four-year mean fluxes are reasonably consistent across inversions at global/latitudinal scale, with a large total (land plus ocean carbon uptake in the north (−3.4 Pg C yr−1 (±0.5 Pg C yr−1 standard deviation, with slightly more uptake over land than over ocean, a significant although more variable source over the tropics (1.6 ± 0.9 Pg C yr−1 and a compensatory sink of similar magnitude in the south (−1.4 ± 0.5 Pg C yr−1 corresponding mainly to an ocean sink. Largest differences across inversions occur in the balance between tropical land sources and southern land sinks. Interannual variability (IAV in carbon fluxes is larger for land than ocean regions (standard deviation around 1.06 versus 0.33 Pg C yr−1 for the 1996–2007 period, with much higher consistency among the inversions for the land. While the tropical land explains most of the IAV (standard deviation ~ 0.65 Pg C yr−1, the northern and southern land also contribute (standard deviation ~ 0.39 Pg C yr−1. Most inversions tend to indicate an increase of the northern land carbon uptake from late 1990s to 2008 (around 0.1 Pg C yr−1, predominantly in North Asia. The mean seasonal cycle appears to be well constrained by the atmospheric data over

  13. Data driven computing by the morphing fast Fourier transform ensemble Kalman filter in epidemic spread simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandel, Jan; Beezley, Jonathan D.; Cobb, Loren; Krishnamurthy, Ashok

    2010-01-01

    The FFT EnKF data assimilation method is proposed and applied to a stochastic cell simulation of an epidemic, based on the S-I-R spread model. The FFT EnKF combines spatial statistics and ensemble filtering methodologies into a localized and computationally inexpensive version of EnKF with a very small ensemble, and it is further combined with the morphing EnKF to assimilate changes in the position of the epidemic. PMID:21031155

  14. Forecasting the consequences of accidental releases of radionuclides in the atmosphere from ensemble dispersion modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galmarini, S.; Bianconi, R.; Bellasio, R.; Graziani, G.

    2001-01-01

    The RTMOD system is presented as a tool for the intercomparison of long-range dispersion models as well as a system for support of decision making. RTMOD is an internet-based procedure that collects the results of more than 20 models used around the world to predict the transport and deposition of radioactive releases in the atmosphere. It allows the real-time acquisition of model results and their intercomparison. Taking advantage of the availability of several model results, the system can also be used as a tool to support decision making in case of emergency. The new concept of ensemble dispersion modelling is introduced which is the basis for the decision-making application of RTMOD. New statistical parameters are presented that allow gathering the results of several models to produce a single dispersion forecast. The devised parameters are presented and tested on the results of RTMOD exercises

  15. Multimodel ensemble simulations of of present-day and near-future tropospheric ozone

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stevenson, D.S.; Dentener, F.J.; van Noije, T.P.C.; Eskes, H.J.; Krol, M.C.

    2006-01-01

    Global tropospheric ozone distributions, budgets, and radiative forcings from an ensemble of 26 state-of-the-art atmospheric chemistry models have been intercompared and synthesized as part of a wider study into both the air quality and climate roles of ozone. Results from three 2030 emissions

  16. Multimodel ensemble simulations of present-day and near-future tropospheric ozone

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stevenson, D.S.; Dentener, F.J.; Schultz, M.G.; Ellingsen, K.; Noije, van T.P.C.; Wild, O.; Zeng, G.; Amann, M.; Atherton, C.S.; Bell, N.; Bergmann, D.J.; Bey, I.; Butler, T.; Cofala, J.; Collins, W.J.; Derwent, R.G.; Doherty, R.M.; Drevet, J.; Eskes, H.J.; Fiore, A.M.; Gauss, M.; Hauglustaine, D.A.; Horowitz, L.W.; Isaksen, I.S.A.; Krol, M.C.; Lamarque, J.F.; Lawrence, M.G.; Montanaro, V.; Muller, J.F.; Pitari, G.; Prather, M.J.; Pyle, J.A.; Rast, S.; Rodriguez, J.M.; Sanderson, M.G.; Savage, N.H.; Shindell, D.T.; Strahan, S.E.; Sudo, K.; Szopa, S.

    2006-01-01

    Global tropospheric ozone distributions, budgets, and radiative forcings from an ensemble of 26 state-of-the-art atmospheric chemistry models have been intercompared and synthesized as part of a wider study into both the air quality and climate roles of ozone. Results from three 2030 emissions

  17. Alternative Hamiltonian for molecular dynamics simulations in the grand canonical ensemble

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lo, C.; Palmer, B.

    1995-01-01

    An alternative to the Hamiltonian of Cagin and Pettitt for performing molecular dynamics simulations in the grand canonical ensemble is presented and used as the basis for a new algorithm. The algorithm is tested on the ideal gas and the truncated and shifted Lennard-Jones fluid. Simulations are used to calculate the vapor--liquid coexistence points for the Lennard-Jones system and are found to be in agreement with previous calculations using Gibbs ensemble calculations and with the Nicolas equation of state. Simulations are also performed on the Lennard-Jones solid

  18. A molecular dynamics algorithm for simulation of field theories in the canonical ensemble

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kogut, J.B.; Sinclair, D.K.

    1986-01-01

    We add a single scalar degree of freedom (''demon'') to the microcanonical ensemble which converts its molecular dynamics into a simulation method for the canonical ensemble (euclidean path integral) of the underlying field theory. This generalization of the microcanonical molecular dynamics algorithm simulates the field theory at fixed coupling with a completely deterministic procedure. We discuss the finite size effects of the method, the equipartition theorem and ergodicity. The method is applied to the planar model in two dimensions and SU(3) lattice gauge theory with four species of light, dynamical quarks in four dimensions. The method is much less sensitive to its discrete time step than conventional Langevin equation simulations of the canonical ensemble. The method is a straightforward generalization of a procedure introduced by S. Nose for molecular physics. (orig.)

  19. Using simulation to interpret experimental data in terms of protein conformational ensembles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allison, Jane R

    2017-04-01

    In their biological environment, proteins are dynamic molecules, necessitating an ensemble structural description. Molecular dynamics simulations and solution-state experiments provide complimentary information in the form of atomically detailed coordinates and averaged or distributions of structural properties or related quantities. Recently, increases in the temporal and spatial scale of conformational sampling and comparison of the more diverse conformational ensembles thus generated have revealed the importance of sampling rare events. Excitingly, new methods based on maximum entropy and Bayesian inference are promising to provide a statistically sound mechanism for combining experimental data with molecular dynamics simulations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Monte Carlo Molecular Simulation with Isobaric-Isothermal and Gibbs-NPT Ensembles

    KAUST Repository

    Du, Shouhong

    2012-01-01

    This thesis presents Monte Carlo methods for simulations of phase behaviors of Lennard-Jones fluids. The isobaric-isothermal (NPT) ensemble and Gibbs-NPT ensemble are introduced in detail. NPT ensemble is employed to determine the phase diagram of pure component. The reduced simulation results are verified by comparison with the equation of state by by Johnson et al. and results with L-J parameters of methane agree considerably with the experiment measurements. We adopt the blocking method for variance estimation and error analysis of the simulation results. The relationship between variance and number of Monte Carlo cycles, error propagation and Random Number Generator performance are also investigated. We review the Gibbs-NPT ensemble employed for phase equilibrium of binary mixture. The phase equilibrium is achieved by performing three types of trial move: particle displacement, volume rearrangement and particle transfer. The simulation models and the simulation details are introduced. The simulation results of phase coexistence for methane and ethane are reported with comparison of the experimental data. Good agreement is found for a wide range of pressures. The contribution of this thesis work lies in the study of the error analysis with respect to the Monte Carlo cycles and number of particles in some interesting aspects.

  1. Monte Carlo Molecular Simulation with Isobaric-Isothermal and Gibbs-NPT Ensembles

    KAUST Repository

    Du, Shouhong

    2012-05-01

    This thesis presents Monte Carlo methods for simulations of phase behaviors of Lennard-Jones fluids. The isobaric-isothermal (NPT) ensemble and Gibbs-NPT ensemble are introduced in detail. NPT ensemble is employed to determine the phase diagram of pure component. The reduced simulation results are verified by comparison with the equation of state by by Johnson et al. and results with L-J parameters of methane agree considerably with the experiment measurements. We adopt the blocking method for variance estimation and error analysis of the simulation results. The relationship between variance and number of Monte Carlo cycles, error propagation and Random Number Generator performance are also investigated. We review the Gibbs-NPT ensemble employed for phase equilibrium of binary mixture. The phase equilibrium is achieved by performing three types of trial move: particle displacement, volume rearrangement and particle transfer. The simulation models and the simulation details are introduced. The simulation results of phase coexistence for methane and ethane are reported with comparison of the experimental data. Good agreement is found for a wide range of pressures. The contribution of this thesis work lies in the study of the error analysis with respect to the Monte Carlo cycles and number of particles in some interesting aspects.

  2. Wang-Landau Reaction Ensemble Method: Simulation of Weak Polyelectrolytes and General Acid-Base Reactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landsgesell, Jonas; Holm, Christian; Smiatek, Jens

    2017-02-14

    We present a novel method for the study of weak polyelectrolytes and general acid-base reactions in molecular dynamics and Monte Carlo simulations. The approach combines the advantages of the reaction ensemble and the Wang-Landau sampling method. Deprotonation and protonation reactions are simulated explicitly with the help of the reaction ensemble method, while the accurate sampling of the corresponding phase space is achieved by the Wang-Landau approach. The combination of both techniques provides a sufficient statistical accuracy such that meaningful estimates for the density of states and the partition sum can be obtained. With regard to these estimates, several thermodynamic observables like the heat capacity or reaction free energies can be calculated. We demonstrate that the computation times for the calculation of titration curves with a high statistical accuracy can be significantly decreased when compared to the original reaction ensemble method. The applicability of our approach is validated by the study of weak polyelectrolytes and their thermodynamic properties.

  3. Iterative ensemble Kalman filter for atmospheric dispersion in nuclear accidents: An application to Kincaid tracer experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, X L; Su, G F; Chen, J G; Raskob, W; Yuan, H Y; Huang, Q Y

    2015-10-30

    Information about atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides is vitally important for planning effective countermeasures during nuclear accidents. Results of dispersion models have high spatial and temporal resolutions, but they are not accurate enough due to the uncertain source term and the errors in meteorological data. Environmental measurements are more reliable, but they are scarce and unable to give forecasts. In this study, our newly proposed iterative ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation scheme is used to combine model results and environmental measurements. The system is thoroughly validated against the observations in the Kincaid tracer experiment. The initial first-guess emissions are assumed to be six magnitudes underestimated. The iterative EnKF system rapidly corrects the errors in the emission rate and wind data, thereby significantly improving the model results (>80% reduction of the normalized mean square error, r=0.71). Sensitivity tests are conducted to investigate the influence of meteorological parameters. The results indicate that the system is sensitive to boundary layer height. When the heights from the numerical weather prediction model are used, only 62.5% of reconstructed emission rates are within a factor two of the actual emissions. This increases to 87.5% when the heights derived from the on-site observations are used. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Parameter estimation in an atmospheric GCM using the Ensemble Kalman Filter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. D. Annan

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available We demonstrate the application of an efficient multivariate probabilistic parameter estimation method to a spectral primitive equation atmospheric GCM. The method, which is based on the Ensemble Kalman Filter, is effective at tuning the surface air temperature climatology of the model to both identical twin data and reanalysis data. When 5 parameters were simultaneously tuned to fit the model to reanalysis data, the model errors were reduced by around 35% compared to those given by the default parameter values. However, the precipitation field proved to be insensitive to these parameters and remains rather poor. The model is computationally cheap but chaotic and otherwise realistic, and the success of these experiments suggests that this method should be capable of tuning more sophisticated models, in particular for the purposes of climate hindcasting and prediction. Furthermore, the method is shown to be useful in determining structural deficiencies in the model which can not be improved by tuning, and so can be a useful tool to guide model development. The work presented here is for a limited set of parameters and data, but the scalability of the method is such that it could easily be extended to a more comprehensive parameter set given sufficient observational data to constrain them.

  5. Towards Data-Driven Simulations of Wildfire Spread using Ensemble-based Data Assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rochoux, M. C.; Bart, J.; Ricci, S. M.; Cuenot, B.; Trouvé, A.; Duchaine, F.; Morel, T.

    2012-12-01

    Real-time predictions of a propagating wildfire remain a challenging task because the problem involves both multi-physics and multi-scales. The propagation speed of wildfires, also called the rate of spread (ROS), is indeed determined by complex interactions between pyrolysis, combustion and flow dynamics, atmospheric dynamics occurring at vegetation, topographical and meteorological scales. Current operational fire spread models are mainly based on a semi-empirical parameterization of the ROS in terms of vegetation, topographical and meteorological properties. For the fire spread simulation to be predictive and compatible with operational applications, the uncertainty on the ROS model should be reduced. As recent progress made in remote sensing technology provides new ways to monitor the fire front position, a promising approach to overcome the difficulties found in wildfire spread simulations is to integrate fire modeling and fire sensing technologies using data assimilation (DA). For this purpose we have developed a prototype data-driven wildfire spread simulator in order to provide optimal estimates of poorly known model parameters [*]. The data-driven simulation capability is adapted for more realistic wildfire spread : it considers a regional-scale fire spread model that is informed by observations of the fire front location. An Ensemble Kalman Filter algorithm (EnKF) based on a parallel computing platform (OpenPALM) was implemented in order to perform a multi-parameter sequential estimation where wind magnitude and direction are in addition to vegetation properties (see attached figure). The EnKF algorithm shows its good ability to track a small-scale grassland fire experiment and ensures a good accounting for the sensitivity of the simulation outcomes to the control parameters. As a conclusion, it was shown that data assimilation is a promising approach to more accurately forecast time-varying wildfire spread conditions as new airborne-like observations of

  6. Optical ensemble analysis of intraocular lens performance through a simulated clinical trial with ZEMAX.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Huawei

    2009-01-01

    A ZEMAX model was constructed to simulate a clinical trial of intraocular lenses (IOLs) based on a clinically oriented Monte Carlo ensemble analysis using postoperative ocular parameters. The purpose of this model is to test the feasibility of streamlining and optimizing both the design process and the clinical testing of IOLs. This optical ensemble analysis (OEA) is also validated. Simulated pseudophakic eyes were generated by using the tolerancing and programming features of ZEMAX optical design software. OEA methodology was verified by demonstrating that the results of clinical performance simulations were consistent with previously published clinical performance data using the same types of IOLs. From these results we conclude that the OEA method can objectively simulate the potential clinical trial performance of IOLs.

  7. Whole Atmosphere Simulation of Anthropogenic Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon, Stanley C.; Liu, Han-Li; Marsh, Daniel R.; McInerney, Joseph M.; Qian, Liying; Vitt, Francis M.

    2018-02-01

    We simulated anthropogenic global change through the entire atmosphere, including the thermosphere and ionosphere, using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model-eXtended. The basic result was that even as the lower atmosphere gradually warms, the upper atmosphere rapidly cools. The simulations employed constant low solar activity conditions, to remove the effects of variable solar and geomagnetic activity. Global mean annual mean temperature increased at a rate of +0.2 K/decade at the surface and +0.4 K/decade in the upper troposphere but decreased by about -1 K/decade in the stratosphere-mesosphere and -2.8 K/decade in the thermosphere. Near the mesopause, temperature decreases were small compared to the interannual variation, so trends in that region are uncertain. Results were similar to previous modeling confined to specific atmospheric levels and compared favorably with available measurements. These simulations demonstrate the ability of a single comprehensive numerical model to characterize global change throughout the atmosphere.

  8. Taylor-expansion Monte Carlo simulations of classical fluids in the canonical and grand canonical ensemble

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schoen, M.

    1995-01-01

    In this article the Taylor-expansion method is introduced by which Monte Carlo (MC) simulations in the canonical ensemble can be speeded up significantly, Substantial gains in computational speed of 20-40% over conventional implementations of the MC technique are obtained over a wide range of densities in homogeneous bulk phases. The basic philosophy behind the Taylor-expansion method is a division of the neighborhood of each atom (or molecule) into three different spatial zones. Interactions between atoms belonging to each zone are treated at different levels of computational sophistication. For example, only interactions between atoms belonging to the primary zone immediately surrounding an atom are treated explicitly before and after displacement. The change in the configurational energy contribution from secondary-zone interactions is obtained from the first-order term of a Taylor expansion of the configurational energy in terms of the displacement vector d. Interactions with atoms in the tertiary zone adjacent to the secondary zone are neglected throughout. The Taylor-expansion method is not restricted to the canonical ensemble but may be employed to enhance computational efficiency of MC simulations in other ensembles as well. This is demonstrated for grand canonical ensemble MC simulations of an inhomogeneous fluid which can be performed essentially on a modern personal computer

  9. Ensemble flood simulation for a small dam catchment in Japan using 10 and 2 km resolution nonhydrostatic model rainfalls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobayashi, Kenichiro; Otsuka, Shigenori; Apip; Saito, Kazuo

    2016-08-01

    This paper presents a study on short-term ensemble flood forecasting specifically for small dam catchments in Japan. Numerical ensemble simulations of rainfall from the Japan Meteorological Agency nonhydrostatic model (JMA-NHM) are used as the input data to a rainfall-runoff model for predicting river discharge into a dam. The ensemble weather simulations use a conventional 10 km and a high-resolution 2 km spatial resolutions. A distributed rainfall-runoff model is constructed for the Kasahori dam catchment (approx. 70 km2) and applied with the ensemble rainfalls. The results show that the hourly maximum and cumulative catchment-average rainfalls of the 2 km resolution JMA-NHM ensemble simulation are more appropriate than the 10 km resolution rainfalls. All the simulated inflows based on the 2 and 10 km rainfalls become larger than the flood discharge of 140 m3 s-1, a threshold value for flood control. The inflows with the 10 km resolution ensemble rainfall are all considerably smaller than the observations, while at least one simulated discharge out of 11 ensemble members with the 2 km resolution rainfalls reproduces the first peak of the inflow at the Kasahori dam with similar amplitude to observations, although there are spatiotemporal lags between simulation and observation. To take positional lags into account of the ensemble discharge simulation, the rainfall distribution in each ensemble member is shifted so that the catchment-averaged cumulative rainfall of the Kasahori dam maximizes. The runoff simulation with the position-shifted rainfalls shows much better results than the original ensemble discharge simulations.

  10. Assessment of Climate Change and Atmospheric CO2 Impact on Winter Wheat in the Pacific Northwest Using a Multimodel Ensemble

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mukhtar Ahmed

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Simulations of crop yields under climate change are subject to uncertainties whose quantification is important for effective use of projected results for adaptation and mitigation strategies. In the US Pacific Northwest (PNW, studies based on single crop models and weather projections downscaled from a few general circulation models (GCM have indicated mostly beneficial effects of climate change on winter wheat production for most of the twenty-first century. In this study we evaluated the uncertainty in the projection of winter wheat yields at seven sites in the PNW using five crop growth simulation models (CropSyst, APSIM, DSSAT, STICS, and EPIC and daily weather data downscaled from 14 GCMs for 2 representative concentration pathways (RCP of atmospheric CO2 (RCP4.5 and 8.5. All crop models were calibrated for high, medium, and low precipitation dryland sites and one irrigated site using 1979–2010 as the baseline period. All five models were run from years 2000 to 2100 to evaluate the effect of future conditions (precipitation, temperature and atmospheric CO2 on winter wheat grain yield. Simulations of future climatic conditions and impacts were organized into three 31-year periods centered around the years 2030, 2050, and 2070. All models predicted a decrease of the growing season length and crop transpiration, and increase in transpiration-use efficiency, biomass production, and yields, but with substantial variation that increased from the 2030s to 2070s. Most of the uncertainty (up to 85% associated with predictions of yield was due to variation among the crop models. Maximum uncertainty due to GCMs was 15% which was less than the maximum uncertainty associated with the interaction between the crop model effect and GCM effect (25%. Large uncertainty associated with the interaction between crop models and GCMs indicated that the effect of GCM on yield varied among the five models. The mean of the ensemble of all crop models and GCMs

  11. Ensembler: Enabling High-Throughput Molecular Simulations at the Superfamily Scale.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel L Parton

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The rapidly expanding body of available genomic and protein structural data provides a rich resource for understanding protein dynamics with biomolecular simulation. While computational infrastructure has grown rapidly, simulations on an omics scale are not yet widespread, primarily because software infrastructure to enable simulations at this scale has not kept pace. It should now be possible to study protein dynamics across entire (superfamilies, exploiting both available structural biology data and conformational similarities across homologous proteins. Here, we present a new tool for enabling high-throughput simulation in the genomics era. Ensembler takes any set of sequences-from a single sequence to an entire superfamily-and shepherds them through various stages of modeling and refinement to produce simulation-ready structures. This includes comparative modeling to all relevant PDB structures (which may span multiple conformational states of interest, reconstruction of missing loops, addition of missing atoms, culling of nearly identical structures, assignment of appropriate protonation states, solvation in explicit solvent, and refinement and filtering with molecular simulation to ensure stable simulation. The output of this pipeline is an ensemble of structures ready for subsequent molecular simulations using computer clusters, supercomputers, or distributed computing projects like Folding@home. Ensembler thus automates much of the time-consuming process of preparing protein models suitable for simulation, while allowing scalability up to entire superfamilies. A particular advantage of this approach can be found in the construction of kinetic models of conformational dynamics-such as Markov state models (MSMs-which benefit from a diverse array of initial configurations that span the accessible conformational states to aid sampling. We demonstrate the power of this approach by constructing models for all catalytic domains in the human

  12. Making decisions based on an imperfect ensemble of climate simulators: strategies and future directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanderson, B. M.

    2017-12-01

    The CMIP ensembles represent the most comprehensive source of information available to decision-makers for climate adaptation, yet it is clear that there are fundamental limitations in our ability to treat the ensemble as an unbiased sample of possible future climate trajectories. There is considerable evidence that models are not independent, and increasing complexity and resolution combined with computational constraints prevent a thorough exploration of parametric uncertainty or internal variability. Although more data than ever is available for calibration, the optimization of each model is influenced by institutional priorities, historical precedent and available resources. The resulting ensemble thus represents a miscellany of climate simulators which defy traditional statistical interpretation. Models are in some cases interdependent, but are sufficiently complex that the degree of interdependency is conditional on the application. Configurations have been updated using available observations to some degree, but not in a consistent or easily identifiable fashion. This means that the ensemble cannot be viewed as a true posterior distribution updated by available data, but nor can observational data alone be used to assess individual model likelihood. We assess recent literature for combining projections from an imperfect ensemble of climate simulators. Beginning with our published methodology for addressing model interdependency and skill in the weighting scheme for the 4th US National Climate Assessment, we consider strategies for incorporating process-based constraints on future response, perturbed parameter experiments and multi-model output into an integrated framework. We focus on a number of guiding questions: Is the traditional framework of confidence in projections inferred from model agreement leading to biased or misleading conclusions? Can the benefits of upweighting skillful models be reconciled with the increased risk of truth lying outside the

  13. Assessing uncertainties in crop and pasture ensemble model simulations of productivity and N2 O emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehrhardt, Fiona; Soussana, Jean-François; Bellocchi, Gianni; Grace, Peter; McAuliffe, Russel; Recous, Sylvie; Sándor, Renáta; Smith, Pete; Snow, Val; de Antoni Migliorati, Massimiliano; Basso, Bruno; Bhatia, Arti; Brilli, Lorenzo; Doltra, Jordi; Dorich, Christopher D; Doro, Luca; Fitton, Nuala; Giacomini, Sandro J; Grant, Brian; Harrison, Matthew T; Jones, Stephanie K; Kirschbaum, Miko U F; Klumpp, Katja; Laville, Patricia; Léonard, Joël; Liebig, Mark; Lieffering, Mark; Martin, Raphaël; Massad, Raia S; Meier, Elizabeth; Merbold, Lutz; Moore, Andrew D; Myrgiotis, Vasileios; Newton, Paul; Pattey, Elizabeth; Rolinski, Susanne; Sharp, Joanna; Smith, Ward N; Wu, Lianhai; Zhang, Qing

    2018-02-01

    Simulation models are extensively used to predict agricultural productivity and greenhouse gas emissions. However, the uncertainties of (reduced) model ensemble simulations have not been assessed systematically for variables affecting food security and climate change mitigation, within multi-species agricultural contexts. We report an international model comparison and benchmarking exercise, showing the potential of multi-model ensembles to predict productivity and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions for wheat, maize, rice and temperate grasslands. Using a multi-stage modelling protocol, from blind simulations (stage 1) to partial (stages 2-4) and full calibration (stage 5), 24 process-based biogeochemical models were assessed individually or as an ensemble against long-term experimental data from four temperate grassland and five arable crop rotation sites spanning four continents. Comparisons were performed by reference to the experimental uncertainties of observed yields and N 2 O emissions. Results showed that across sites and crop/grassland types, 23%-40% of the uncalibrated individual models were within two standard deviations (SD) of observed yields, while 42 (rice) to 96% (grasslands) of the models were within 1 SD of observed N 2 O emissions. At stage 1, ensembles formed by the three lowest prediction model errors predicted both yields and N 2 O emissions within experimental uncertainties for 44% and 33% of the crop and grassland growth cycles, respectively. Partial model calibration (stages 2-4) markedly reduced prediction errors of the full model ensemble E-median for crop grain yields (from 36% at stage 1 down to 4% on average) and grassland productivity (from 44% to 27%) and to a lesser and more variable extent for N 2 O emissions. Yield-scaled N 2 O emissions (N 2 O emissions divided by crop yields) were ranked accurately by three-model ensembles across crop species and field sites. The potential of using process-based model ensembles to predict jointly

  14. epiDMS: Data Management and Analytics for Decision-Making From Epidemic Spread Simulation Ensembles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Sicong; Poccia, Silvestro; Candan, K Selçuk; Chowell, Gerardo; Sapino, Maria Luisa

    2016-12-01

    Carefully calibrated large-scale computational models of epidemic spread represent a powerful tool to support the decision-making process during epidemic emergencies. Epidemic models are being increasingly used for generating forecasts of the spatial-temporal progression of epidemics at different spatial scales and for assessing the likely impact of different intervention strategies. However, the management and analysis of simulation ensembles stemming from large-scale computational models pose challenges, particularly when dealing with multiple interdependent parameters, spanning multiple layers and geospatial frames, affected by complex dynamic processes operating at different resolutions. We describe and illustrate with examples a novel epidemic simulation data management system, epiDMS, that was developed to address the challenges that arise from the need to generate, search, visualize, and analyze, in a scalable manner, large volumes of epidemic simulation ensembles and observations during the progression of an epidemic. epiDMS is a publicly available system that facilitates management and analysis of large epidemic simulation ensembles. epiDMS aims to fill an important hole in decision-making during healthcare emergencies by enabling critical services with significant economic and health impact. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

  15. EPA Contribution to Manuscript "Evaluation and Error Apportionment of an Ensemble of Atmospheric Chemistry Transport Modelling Systems: Multi-variable Temporal and Spatial Breakdown"

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This dataset contains the data contributed by EPA/ORD/NERL/CED researchers to the manuscript "Evaluation and Error Apportionment of an Ensemble of Atmospheric...

  16. Coastal aquifer management under parameter uncertainty: Ensemble surrogate modeling based simulation-optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janardhanan, S.; Datta, B.

    2011-12-01

    Surrogate models are widely used to develop computationally efficient simulation-optimization models to solve complex groundwater management problems. Artificial intelligence based models are most often used for this purpose where they are trained using predictor-predictand data obtained from a numerical simulation model. Most often this is implemented with the assumption that the parameters and boundary conditions used in the numerical simulation model are perfectly known. However, in most practical situations these values are uncertain. Under these circumstances the application of such approximation surrogates becomes limited. In our study we develop a surrogate model based coupled simulation optimization methodology for determining optimal pumping strategies for coastal aquifers considering parameter uncertainty. An ensemble surrogate modeling approach is used along with multiple realization optimization. The methodology is used to solve a multi-objective coastal aquifer management problem considering two conflicting objectives. Hydraulic conductivity and the aquifer recharge are considered as uncertain values. Three dimensional coupled flow and transport simulation model FEMWATER is used to simulate the aquifer responses for a number of scenarios corresponding to Latin hypercube samples of pumping and uncertain parameters to generate input-output patterns for training the surrogate models. Non-parametric bootstrap sampling of this original data set is used to generate multiple data sets which belong to different regions in the multi-dimensional decision and parameter space. These data sets are used to train and test multiple surrogate models based on genetic programming. The ensemble of surrogate models is then linked to a multi-objective genetic algorithm to solve the pumping optimization problem. Two conflicting objectives, viz, maximizing total pumping from beneficial wells and minimizing the total pumping from barrier wells for hydraulic control of

  17. [Simulation of cropland soil moisture based on an ensemble Kalman filter].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhao; Zhou, Yan-Lian; Ju, Wei-Min; Gao, Ping

    2011-11-01

    By using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to assimilate the observed soil moisture data, the modified boreal ecosystem productivity simulator (BEPS) model was adopted to simulate the dynamics of soil moisture in winter wheat root zones at Xuzhou Agro-meteorological Station, Jiangsu Province of China during the growth seasons in 2000-2004. After the assimilation of observed data, the determination coefficient, root mean square error, and average absolute error of simulated soil moisture were in the ranges of 0.626-0.943, 0.018-0.042, and 0.021-0.041, respectively, with the simulation precision improved significantly, as compared with that before assimilation, indicating the applicability of data assimilation in improving the simulation of soil moisture. The experimental results at single point showed that the errors in the forcing data and observations and the frequency and soil depth of the assimilation of observed data all had obvious effects on the simulated soil moisture.

  18. Development of computational infrastructure to support hyper-resolution large-ensemble hydrology simulations from local-to-continental scales

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Development of computational infrastructure to support hyper-resolution large-ensemble hydrology simulations from local-to-continental scales A move is currently...

  19. Numerical model simulation of atmospheric coolant plumes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gaillard, P.

    1980-01-01

    The effect of humid atmospheric coolants on the atmosphere is simulated by means of a three-dimensional numerical model. The atmosphere is defined by its natural vertical profiles of horizontal velocity, temperature, pressure and relative humidity. Effluent discharge is characterised by its vertical velocity and the temperature of air satured with water vapour. The subject of investigation is the area in the vicinity of the point of discharge, with due allowance for the wake effect of the tower and buildings and, where application, wind veer with altitude. The model equations express the conservation relationships for mometum, energy, total mass and water mass, for an incompressible fluid behaving in accordance with the Boussinesq assumptions. Condensation is represented by a simple thermodynamic model, and turbulent fluxes are simulated by introduction of turbulent viscosity and diffusivity data based on in-situ and experimental water model measurements. The three-dimensional problem expressed in terms of the primitive variables (u, v, w, p) is governed by an elliptic equation system which is solved numerically by application of an explicit time-marching algorithm in order to predict the steady-flow velocity distribution, temperature, water vapour concentration and the liquid-water concentration defining the visible plume. Windstill conditions are simulated by a program processing the elliptic equations in an axisymmetrical revolution coordinate system. The calculated visible plumes are compared with plumes observed on site with a view to validate the models [fr

  20. CFD simulation of the atmospheric boundary layer: wall function problems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Blocken, B.J.E.; Stathopoulos, T.; Carmeliet, J.

    2007-01-01

    Accurate Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations of atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) flow are essential for a wide variety of atmospheric studies including pollutant dispersion and deposition. The accuracy of such simulations can be seriously compromised when wall-function roughness

  1. A Unified Air-Sea Interface in Fully Coupled Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean Models for Data Assimilation and Ensemble Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shuyi; Curcic, Milan; Donelan, Mark; Campbell, Tim; Smith, Travis; Chen, Sue; Allard, Rick; Michalakes, John

    2014-05-01

    The goals of this study are to 1) better understand the physical processes controlling air-sea interaction and their impact on coastal marine and storm predictions, 2) explore the use of coupled atmosphere-ocean observations in model verification and data assimilation, and 3) develop a physically based and computationally efficient coupling at the air-sea interface that is flexible for use in a multi-model system and portable for transition to the next generation research and operational coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean-land models. We have developed a unified air-sea interface module that couples multiple atmosphere, wave, and ocean models using the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). This standardized coupling framework allows researchers to develop and test air-sea coupling parameterizations and coupled data assimilation, and to better facilitate research-to-operation activities. It also allows for future ensemble forecasts using coupled models that can be used for coupled data assimilation and assessment of uncertainties in coupled model predictions. The current component models include two atmospheric models (WRF and COAMPS), two ocean models (HYCOM and NCOM), and two wave models (UMWM and SWAN). The coupled modeling systems have been tested and evaluated using the coupled air-sea observations (e.g., GPS dropsondes and AXBTs, drifters and floats) collected in recent field campaigns in the Gulf of Mexico and tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and Pacific basins. This talk will provide an overview of the unified air-sea interface model and fully coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model predictions over various coastal regions and tropical cyclones in the Pacific and Atlantic basins including an example from coupled ensemble prediction of Superstorm Sandy (2012).

  2. Multi-model ensemble simulations of olive pollen distribution in Europe in 2014: current status and outlook

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Sofiev

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the first modelling experiment of the European-scale olive pollen dispersion, analyses the quality of the predictions, and outlines the research needs. A 6-model strong ensemble of Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS was run throughout the olive season of 2014, computing the olive pollen distribution. The simulations have been compared with observations in eight countries, which are members of the European Aeroallergen Network (EAN. Analysis was performed for individual models, the ensemble mean and median, and for a dynamically optimised combination of the ensemble members obtained via fusion of the model predictions with observations. The models, generally reproducing the olive season of 2014, showed noticeable deviations from both observations and each other. In particular, the season was reported to start too early by 8 days, but for some models the error mounted to almost 2 weeks. For the end of the season, the disagreement between the models and the observations varied from a nearly perfect match up to 2 weeks too late. A series of sensitivity studies carried out to understand the origin of the disagreements revealed the crucial role of ambient temperature and consistency of its representation by the meteorological models and heat-sum-based phenological model. In particular, a simple correction to the heat-sum threshold eliminated the shift of the start of the season but its validity in other years remains to be checked. The short-term features of the concentration time series were reproduced better, suggesting that the precipitation events and cold/warm spells, as well as the large-scale transport, were represented rather well. Ensemble averaging led to more robust results. The best skill scores were obtained with data fusion, which used the previous days' observations to identify the optimal weighting coefficients of the individual model forecasts. Such combinations were tested for the forecasting

  3. Accurate and precise determination of critical properties from Gibbs ensemble Monte Carlo simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dinpajooh, Mohammadhasan; Bai, Peng; Allan, Douglas A.; Siepmann, J. Ilja

    2015-01-01

    Since the seminal paper by Panagiotopoulos [Mol. Phys. 61, 813 (1997)], the Gibbs ensemble Monte Carlo (GEMC) method has been the most popular particle-based simulation approach for the computation of vapor–liquid phase equilibria. However, the validity of GEMC simulations in the near-critical region has been questioned because rigorous finite-size scaling approaches cannot be applied to simulations with fluctuating volume. Valleau [Mol. Simul. 29, 627 (2003)] has argued that GEMC simulations would lead to a spurious overestimation of the critical temperature. More recently, Patel et al. [J. Chem. Phys. 134, 024101 (2011)] opined that the use of analytical tail corrections would be problematic in the near-critical region. To address these issues, we perform extensive GEMC simulations for Lennard-Jones particles in the near-critical region varying the system size, the overall system density, and the cutoff distance. For a system with N = 5500 particles, potential truncation at 8σ and analytical tail corrections, an extrapolation of GEMC simulation data at temperatures in the range from 1.27 to 1.305 yields T c = 1.3128 ± 0.0016, ρ c = 0.316 ± 0.004, and p c = 0.1274 ± 0.0013 in excellent agreement with the thermodynamic limit determined by Potoff and Panagiotopoulos [J. Chem. Phys. 109, 10914 (1998)] using grand canonical Monte Carlo simulations and finite-size scaling. Critical properties estimated using GEMC simulations with different overall system densities (0.296 ≤ ρ t ≤ 0.336) agree to within the statistical uncertainties. For simulations with tail corrections, data obtained using r cut = 3.5σ yield T c and p c that are higher by 0.2% and 1.4% than simulations with r cut = 5 and 8σ but still with overlapping 95% confidence intervals. In contrast, GEMC simulations with a truncated and shifted potential show that r cut = 8σ is insufficient to obtain accurate results. Additional GEMC simulations for hard-core square-well particles with various

  4. Comparison of projection skills of deterministic ensemble methods using pseudo-simulation data generated from multivariate Gaussian distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oh, Seok-Geun; Suh, Myoung-Seok

    2017-07-01

    The projection skills of five ensemble methods were analyzed according to simulation skills, training period, and ensemble members, using 198 sets of pseudo-simulation data (PSD) produced by random number generation assuming the simulated temperature of regional climate models. The PSD sets were classified into 18 categories according to the relative magnitude of bias, variance ratio, and correlation coefficient, where each category had 11 sets (including 1 truth set) with 50 samples. The ensemble methods used were as follows: equal weighted averaging without bias correction (EWA_NBC), EWA with bias correction (EWA_WBC), weighted ensemble averaging based on root mean square errors and correlation (WEA_RAC), WEA based on the Taylor score (WEA_Tay), and multivariate linear regression (Mul_Reg). The projection skills of the ensemble methods improved generally as compared with the best member for each category. However, their projection skills are significantly affected by the simulation skills of the ensemble member. The weighted ensemble methods showed better projection skills than non-weighted methods, in particular, for the PSD categories having systematic biases and various correlation coefficients. The EWA_NBC showed considerably lower projection skills than the other methods, in particular, for the PSD categories with systematic biases. Although Mul_Reg showed relatively good skills, it showed strong sensitivity to the PSD categories, training periods, and number of members. On the other hand, the WEA_Tay and WEA_RAC showed relatively superior skills in both the accuracy and reliability for all the sensitivity experiments. This indicates that WEA_Tay and WEA_RAC are applicable even for simulation data with systematic biases, a short training period, and a small number of ensemble members.

  5. Computational algorithms for simulations in atmospheric optics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konyaev, P A; Lukin, V P

    2016-04-20

    A computer simulation technique for atmospheric and adaptive optics based on parallel programing is discussed. A parallel propagation algorithm is designed and a modified spectral-phase method for computer generation of 2D time-variant random fields is developed. Temporal power spectra of Laguerre-Gaussian beam fluctuations are considered as an example to illustrate the applications discussed. Implementation of the proposed algorithms using Intel MKL and IPP libraries and NVIDIA CUDA technology is shown to be very fast and accurate. The hardware system for the computer simulation is an off-the-shelf desktop with an Intel Core i7-4790K CPU operating at a turbo-speed frequency up to 5 GHz and an NVIDIA GeForce GTX-960 graphics accelerator with 1024 1.5 GHz processors.

  6. CELES: CUDA-accelerated simulation of electromagnetic scattering by large ensembles of spheres

    Science.gov (United States)

    Egel, Amos; Pattelli, Lorenzo; Mazzamuto, Giacomo; Wiersma, Diederik S.; Lemmer, Uli

    2017-09-01

    CELES is a freely available MATLAB toolbox to simulate light scattering by many spherical particles. Aiming at high computational performance, CELES leverages block-diagonal preconditioning, a lookup-table approach to evaluate costly functions and massively parallel execution on NVIDIA graphics processing units using the CUDA computing platform. The combination of these techniques allows to efficiently address large electrodynamic problems (>104 scatterers) on inexpensive consumer hardware. In this paper, we validate near- and far-field distributions against the well-established multi-sphere T-matrix (MSTM) code and discuss the convergence behavior for ensembles of different sizes, including an exemplary system comprising 105 particles.

  7. Field-theoretic simulations of block copolymer nanocomposites in a constant interfacial tension ensemble.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koski, Jason P; Riggleman, Robert A

    2017-04-28

    Block copolymers, due to their ability to self-assemble into periodic structures with long range order, are appealing candidates to control the ordering of functionalized nanoparticles where it is well-accepted that the spatial distribution of nanoparticles in a polymer matrix dictates the resulting material properties. The large parameter space associated with block copolymer nanocomposites makes theory and simulation tools appealing to guide experiments and effectively isolate parameters of interest. We demonstrate a method for performing field-theoretic simulations in a constant volume-constant interfacial tension ensemble (nVγT) that enables the determination of the equilibrium properties of block copolymer nanocomposites, including when the composites are placed under tensile or compressive loads. Our approach is compatible with the complex Langevin simulation framework, which allows us to go beyond the mean-field approximation. We validate our approach by comparing our nVγT approach with free energy calculations to determine the ideal domain spacing and modulus of a symmetric block copolymer melt. We analyze the effect of numerical and thermodynamic parameters on the efficiency of the nVγT ensemble and subsequently use our method to investigate the ideal domain spacing, modulus, and nanoparticle distribution of a lamellar forming block copolymer nanocomposite. We find that the nanoparticle distribution is directly linked to the resultant domain spacing and is dependent on polymer chain density, nanoparticle size, and nanoparticle chemistry. Furthermore, placing the system under tension or compression can qualitatively alter the nanoparticle distribution within the block copolymer.

  8. GPU-accelerated Gibbs ensemble Monte Carlo simulations of Lennard-Jonesium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mick, Jason; Hailat, Eyad; Russo, Vincent; Rushaidat, Kamel; Schwiebert, Loren; Potoff, Jeffrey

    2013-12-01

    This work describes an implementation of canonical and Gibbs ensemble Monte Carlo simulations on graphics processing units (GPUs). The pair-wise energy calculations, which consume the majority of the computational effort, are parallelized using the energetic decomposition algorithm. While energetic decomposition is relatively inefficient for traditional CPU-bound codes, the algorithm is ideally suited to the architecture of the GPU. The performance of the CPU and GPU codes are assessed for a variety of CPU and GPU combinations for systems containing between 512 and 131,072 particles. For a system of 131,072 particles, the GPU-enabled canonical and Gibbs ensemble codes were 10.3 and 29.1 times faster (GTX 480 GPU vs. i5-2500K CPU), respectively, than an optimized serial CPU-bound code. Due to overhead from memory transfers from system RAM to the GPU, the CPU code was slightly faster than the GPU code for simulations containing less than 600 particles. The critical temperature Tc∗=1.312(2) and density ρc∗=0.316(3) were determined for the tail corrected Lennard-Jones potential from simulations of 10,000 particle systems, and found to be in exact agreement with prior mixed field finite-size scaling calculations [J.J. Potoff, A.Z. Panagiotopoulos, J. Chem. Phys. 109 (1998) 10914].

  9. Multi-Subband Ensemble Monte Carlo simulations of scaled GAA MOSFETs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donetti, L.; Sampedro, C.; Ruiz, F. G.; Godoy, A.; Gamiz, F.

    2018-05-01

    We developed a Multi-Subband Ensemble Monte Carlo simulator for non-planar devices, taking into account two-dimensional quantum confinement. It couples self-consistently the solution of the 3D Poisson equation, the 2D Schrödinger equation, and the 1D Boltzmann transport equation with the Ensemble Monte Carlo method. This simulator was employed to study MOS devices based on ultra-scaled Gate-All-Around Si nanowires with diameters in the range from 4 nm to 8 nm with gate length from 8 nm to 14 nm. We studied the output and transfer characteristics, interpreting the behavior in the sub-threshold region and in the ON state in terms of the spatial charge distribution and the mobility computed with the same simulator. We analyzed the results, highlighting the contribution of different valleys and subbands and the effect of the gate bias on the energy and velocity profiles. Finally the scaling behavior was studied, showing that only the devices with D = 4nm maintain a good control of the short channel effects down to the gate length of 8nm .

  10. Assessing the Uncertainty of Tropical Cyclone Simulations in NCAR's Community Atmosphere Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin A Reed

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The paper explores the impact of the initial-data, parameter and structural model uncertainty on the simulation of a tropical cyclone-like vortex in the National Center for Atmospheric Research's (NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM. An analytic technique is used to initialize the model with an idealized weak vortex that develops into a tropical cyclone over ten simulation days. A total of 78 ensemble simulations are performed at horizontal grid spacings of 1.0°, 0.5° and 0.25° using two recently released versions of the model, CAM 4 and CAM 5. The ensemble members represent simulations with random small-amplitude perturbations of the initial conditions, small shifts in the longitudinal position of the initial vortex and runs with slightly altered model parameters. The main distinction between CAM 4 and CAM 5 lies within the physical parameterization suite, and the simulations with both CAM versions at the varying resolutions assess the structural model uncertainty. At all resolutions storms are produced with many tropical cyclone-like characteristics. The CAM 5 simulations exhibit more intense storms than CAM 4 by day 10 at the 0.5° and 0.25° grid spacings, while the CAM 4 storm at 1.0° is stronger. There are also distinct differences in the shapes and vertical profiles of the storms in the two variants of CAM. The ensemble members show no distinction between the initial-data and parameter uncertainty simulations. At day 10 they produce ensemble root-mean-square deviations from an unperturbed control simulation on the order of 1--5 m s-1 for the maximum low-level wind speed and 2--10 hPa for the minimum surface pressure. However, there are large differences between the two CAM versions at identical horizontal resolutions. It suggests that the structural uncertainty is more dominant than the initial-data and parameter uncertainties in this study. The uncertainty among the ensemble members is assessed and quantified.

  11. Observation-based Quantitative Uncertainty Estimation for Realtime Tsunami Inundation Forecast using ABIC and Ensemble Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takagawa, T.

    2016-12-01

    An ensemble forecasting scheme for tsunami inundation is presented. The scheme consists of three elemental methods. The first is a hierarchical Bayesian inversion using Akaike's Bayesian Information Criterion (ABIC). The second is Montecarlo sampling from a probability density function of multidimensional normal distribution. The third is ensamble analysis of tsunami inundation simulations with multiple tsunami sources. Simulation based validation of the model was conducted. A tsunami scenario of M9.1 Nankai earthquake was chosen as a target of validation. Tsunami inundation around Nagoya Port was estimated by using synthetic tsunami waveforms at offshore GPS buoys. The error of estimation of tsunami inundation area was about 10% even if we used only ten minutes observation data. The estimation accuracy of waveforms on/off land and spatial distribution of maximum tsunami inundation depth is demonstrated.

  12. Kinetics and dynamics of near-resonant vibrational energy transfer in gas ensembles of atmospheric interest

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCaffery, Anthony J.

    2018-03-01

    This study of near-resonant, vibration-vibration (V-V) gas-phase energy transfer in diatomic molecules uses the theoretical/computational method, of Marsh & McCaffery (Marsh & McCaffery 2002 J. Chem. Phys. 117, 503 (doi:10.1063/1.1489998)) The method uses the angular momentum (AM) theoretical formalism to compute quantum-state populations within the component molecules of large, non-equilibrium, gas mixtures as the component species proceed to equilibration. Computed quantum-state populations are displayed in a number of formats that reveal the detailed mechanism of the near-resonant V-V process. Further, the evolution of quantum-state populations, for each species present, may be followed as the number of collision cycles increases, displaying the kinetics of evolution for each quantum state of the ensemble's molecules. These features are illustrated for ensembles containing vibrationally excited N2 in H2, O2 and N2 initially in their ground states. This article is part of the theme issue `Modern theoretical chemistry'.

  13. Advances in snow cover distributed modelling via ensemble simulations and assimilation of satellite data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Revuelto, J.; Dumont, M.; Tuzet, F.; Vionnet, V.; Lafaysse, M.; Lecourt, G.; Vernay, M.; Morin, S.; Cosme, E.; Six, D.; Rabatel, A.

    2017-12-01

    Nowadays snowpack models show a good capability in simulating the evolution of snow in mountain areas. However singular deviations of meteorological forcing and shortcomings in the modelling of snow physical processes, when accumulated on time along a snow season, could produce large deviations from real snowpack state. The evaluation of these deviations is usually assessed with on-site observations from automatic weather stations. Nevertheless the location of these stations could strongly influence the results of these evaluations since local topography may have a marked influence on snowpack evolution. Despite the evaluation of snowpack models with automatic weather stations usually reveal good results, there exist a lack of large scale evaluations of simulations results on heterogeneous alpine terrain subjected to local topographic effects.This work firstly presents a complete evaluation of the detailed snowpack model Crocus over an extended mountain area, the Arve upper catchment (western European Alps). This catchment has a wide elevation range with a large area above 2000m a.s.l. and/or glaciated. The evaluation compares results obtained with distributed and semi-distributed simulations (the latter nowadays used on the operational forecasting). Daily observations of the snow covered area from MODIS satellite sensor, seasonal glacier surface mass balance evolution measured in more than 65 locations and the galciers annual equilibrium line altitude from Landsat/Spot/Aster satellites, have been used for model evaluation. Additionally the latest advances in producing ensemble snowpack simulations for assimilating satellite reflectance data over extended areas will be presented. These advances comprises the generation of an ensemble of downscaled high-resolution meteorological forcing from meso-scale meteorological models and the application of a particle filter scheme for assimilating satellite observations. Despite the results are prefatory, they show a good

  14. Simulation of weak polyelectrolytes: a comparison between the constant pH and the reaction ensemble method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landsgesell, Jonas; Holm, Christian; Smiatek, Jens

    2017-03-01

    The reaction ensemble and the constant pH method are well-known chemical equilibrium approaches to simulate protonation and deprotonation reactions in classical molecular dynamics and Monte Carlo simulations. In this article, we demonstrate the similarity between both methods under certain conditions. We perform molecular dynamics simulations of a weak polyelectrolyte in order to compare the titration curves obtained by both approaches. Our findings reveal a good agreement between the methods when the reaction ensemble is used to sweep the reaction constant. Pronounced differences between the reaction ensemble and the constant pH method can be observed for stronger acids and bases in terms of adaptive pH values. These deviations are due to the presence of explicit protons in the reaction ensemble method which induce a screening of electrostatic interactions between the charged titrable groups of the polyelectrolyte. The outcomes of our simulation hint to a better applicability of the reaction ensemble method for systems in confined geometries and titrable groups in polyelectrolytes with different pKa values.

  15. ASCAT soil moisture data assimilation through the Ensemble Kalman Filter for improving streamflow simulation in Mediterranean catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loizu, Javier; Massari, Christian; Álvarez-Mozos, Jesús; Casalí, Javier; Goñi, Mikel

    2016-04-01

    Assimilation of Surface Soil Moisture (SSM) observations obtained from remote sensing techniques have been shown to improve streamflow prediction at different time scales of hydrological modeling. Different sensors and methods have been tested for their application in SSM estimation, especially in the microwave region of the electromagnetic spectrum. The available observation devices include passive microwave sensors such as the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - Earth Observation System (AMSR-E) onboard the Aqua satellite and the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission. On the other hand, active microwave systems include Scatterometers (SCAT) onboard the European Remote Sensing satellites (ERS-1/2) and the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) onboard MetOp-A satellite. Data assimilation (DA) include different techniques that have been applied in hydrology and other fields for decades. These techniques include, among others, Kalman Filtering (KF), Variational Assimilation or Particle Filtering. From the initial KF method, different techniques were developed to suit its application to different systems. The Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), extensively applied in hydrological modeling improvement, shows its capability to deal with nonlinear model dynamics without linearizing model equations, as its main advantage. The objective of this study was to investigate whether data assimilation of SSM ASCAT observations, through the EnKF method, could improve streamflow simulation of mediterranean catchments with TOPLATS hydrological complex model. The DA technique was programmed in FORTRAN, and applied to hourly simulations of TOPLATS catchment model. TOPLATS (TOPMODEL-based Land-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme) was applied on its lumped version for two mediterranean catchments of similar size, located in northern Spain (Arga, 741 km2) and central Italy (Nestore, 720 km2). The model performs a separated computation of energy and water balances. In those balances, the soil

  16. Multilevel Monte Carlo methods using ensemble level mixed MsFEM for two-phase flow and transport simulations

    KAUST Repository

    Efendiev, Yalchin R.

    2013-08-21

    In this paper, we propose multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods that use ensemble level mixed multiscale methods in the simulations of multiphase flow and transport. The contribution of this paper is twofold: (1) a design of ensemble level mixed multiscale finite element methods and (2) a novel use of mixed multiscale finite element methods within multilevel Monte Carlo techniques to speed up the computations. The main idea of ensemble level multiscale methods is to construct local multiscale basis functions that can be used for any member of the ensemble. In this paper, we consider two ensemble level mixed multiscale finite element methods: (1) the no-local-solve-online ensemble level method (NLSO); and (2) the local-solve-online ensemble level method (LSO). The first approach was proposed in Aarnes and Efendiev (SIAM J. Sci. Comput. 30(5):2319-2339, 2008) while the second approach is new. Both mixed multiscale methods use a number of snapshots of the permeability media in generating multiscale basis functions. As a result, in the off-line stage, we construct multiple basis functions for each coarse region where basis functions correspond to different realizations. In the no-local-solve-online ensemble level method, one uses the whole set of precomputed basis functions to approximate the solution for an arbitrary realization. In the local-solve-online ensemble level method, one uses the precomputed functions to construct a multiscale basis for a particular realization. With this basis, the solution corresponding to this particular realization is approximated in LSO mixed multiscale finite element method (MsFEM). In both approaches, the accuracy of the method is related to the number of snapshots computed based on different realizations that one uses to precompute a multiscale basis. In this paper, ensemble level multiscale methods are used in multilevel Monte Carlo methods (Giles 2008a, Oper.Res. 56(3):607-617, b). In multilevel Monte Carlo methods, more accurate

  17. Spatial and temporal characteristics of heat waves over Central Europe in an ensemble of regional climate model simulations

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Lhotka, Ondřej; Kyselý, Jan

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 45, č. 9 (2015), s. 2351-2366 ISSN 0930-7575 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP209/10/2265 EU Projects: European Commission(XE) 505539 - ENSEMBLES Program:FP6 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : heat waves * regional climate models * land–atmosphere coupling * spatial characteristics * interannual variability * ENSEMBLES project Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 4.708, year: 2015 http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-015-2475-7

  18. Statistical analysis of simulated global soil moisture and its memory in an ensemble of CMIP5 general circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiß, Felix; Stacke, Tobias; Hagemann, Stefan

    2014-05-01

    Soil moisture and its memory can have a strong impact on near surface temperature and precipitation and have the potential to promote severe heat waves, dry spells and floods. To analyze how soil moisture is simulated in recent general circulation models (GCMs), soil moisture data from a 23 model ensemble of Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) type simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are examined for the period 1979 to 2008 with regard to parameterization and statistical characteristics. With respect to soil moisture processes, the models vary in their maximum soil and root depth, the number of soil layers, the water-holding capacity, and the ability to simulate freezing which all together leads to very different soil moisture characteristics. Differences in the water-holding capacity are resulting in deviations in the global median soil moisture of more than one order of magnitude between the models. In contrast, the variance shows similar absolute values when comparing the models to each other. Thus, the input and output rates by precipitation and evapotranspiration, which are computed by the atmospheric component of the models, have to be in the same range. Most models simulate great variances in the monsoon areas of the tropics and north western U.S., intermediate variances in Europe and eastern U.S., and low variances in the Sahara, continental Asia, and central and western Australia. In general, the variance decreases with latitude over the high northern latitudes. As soil moisture trends in the models were found to be negligible, the soil moisture anomalies were calculated by subtracting the 30 year monthly climatology from the data. The length of the memory is determined from the soil moisture anomalies by calculating the first insignificant autocorrelation for ascending monthly lags (insignificant autocorrelation folding time). The models show a great spread of autocorrelation length from a few months in

  19. Coupling Visualization, Simulation, and Deep Learning for Ensemble Steering of Complex Energy Models: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Potter, Kristin C [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Brunhart-Lupo, Nicholas J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bush, Brian W [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Gruchalla, Kenny M [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bugbee, Bruce [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat K [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-10-09

    We have developed a framework for the exploration, design, and planning of energy systems that combines interactive visualization with machine-learning based approximations of simulations through a general purpose dataflow API. Our system provides a visual inter- face allowing users to explore an ensemble of energy simulations representing a subset of the complex input parameter space, and spawn new simulations to 'fill in' input regions corresponding to new enegery system scenarios. Unfortunately, many energy simula- tions are far too slow to provide interactive responses. To support interactive feedback, we are developing reduced-form models via machine learning techniques, which provide statistically sound esti- mates of the full simulations at a fraction of the computational cost and which are used as proxies for the full-form models. Fast com- putation and an agile dataflow enhance the engagement with energy simulations, and allow researchers to better allocate computational resources to capture informative relationships within the system and provide a low-cost method for validating and quality-checking large-scale modeling efforts.

  20. Magnetohydrodynamic simulations of hot jupiter upper atmospheres

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trammell, George B.; Li, Zhi-Yun; Arras, Phil, E-mail: gbt8f@virginia.edu, E-mail: zl4h@virginia.edu, E-mail: arras@virginia.edu [Department of Astronomy, University of Virginia, P.O. Box 400325, Charlottesville, VA 22904-4325 (United States)

    2014-06-20

    Two-dimensional simulations of hot Jupiter upper atmospheres including the planet's magnetic field are presented. The goal is to explore magnetic effects on the layer of the atmosphere that is ionized and heated by stellar EUV radiation, and the imprint of these effects on the Lyα transmission spectrum. The simulations are axisymmetric, isothermal, and include both rotation and azimuth-averaged stellar tides. Mass density is converted to atomic hydrogen density through the assumption of ionization equilibrium. The three-zone structure—polar dead zone (DZ), mid-latitude wind zone (WZ), and equatorial DZ—found in previous analytic calculations is confirmed. For a magnetic field comparable to that of Jupiter, the equatorial DZ, which is confined by the magnetic field and corotates with the planet, contributes at least half of the transit signal. For even stronger fields, the gas escaping in the mid-latitude WZ is found to have a smaller contribution to the transit depth than the equatorial DZ. Transmission spectra computed from the simulations are compared to Hubble Space Telescope Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph and Advanced Camera for Surveys data for HD 209458b and HD 189733b, and the range of model parameters consistent with the data is found. The central result of this paper is that the transit depth increases strongly with magnetic field strength when the hydrogen ionization layer is magnetically dominated, for dipole magnetic field B {sub 0} ≳ 10 G. Hence transit depth is sensitive to magnetic field strength, in addition to standard quantities such as the ratio of thermal to gravitational binding energies. Another effect of the magnetic field is that the planet loses angular momentum orders of magnitude faster than in the non-magnetic case, because the magnetic field greatly increases the lever arm for wind braking of the planet's rotation. Spin-down timescales for magnetized models of HD 209458b that agree with the observed transit depth

  1. PROJECTED PRECIPITATION CHANGES IN CENTRAL/EASTERN EUROPE ON THE BASIS OF ENSEMBLE SIMULATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erika Miklos

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Projected precipitation changes in Central/Eastern Europe on the basis of ENSEMBLE simulations. For building appropriate local/national adaptation and mitigation strategies, detailed analysis of regional climate change is essential. In order to estimate the climate change for the 21st century, both global and regional models may be used. However, due to the coarse horizontal resolution, global climate models are not appropriate to describe regional scale climate processes. On the other hand, regional climate models (RCMs provide more realistic regional climate scenarios. A wide range of RCM experiments was accomplished in the frame of the ENSEMBLES project funded by the EU FP6 program, which was one of the largest climate change research project ever completed. All the RCM experiments used 25 km horizontal resolution and the A1B emission scenario, according to which CO2 concentration by 2100 is estimated to exceed 700 ppm, i.e., more than twice of the preindustrial level.The 25 km spatial resolution is fine enough to estimate the future hydrology-related conditions in different parts of Europe, from which we separated and analyzed simulated climate data sets for the Central/Eastern European region. Precipitation is an especially important climatological variable because of agricultural aspects and flood-related natural hazards, which may seriously affect all the countries in the evaluated region. On the basis of our results, different RCM simulations generally project drier summers and wetter winters (compared to the recent decades. The southern countries are more likely to suffer more intense warming, especially, in summer, and also, more intense drought events due to the stronger Mediterranean impact.

  2. Linking glacial and future climates through an ensemble of GCM simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. Hargreaves

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we explore the relationships between the modelled climate of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM and that for doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide compared to the pre-industrial climate by analysing the output from an ensemble of runs from the MIROC3.2 GCM. Our results lend support to the idea in other recent work that the Antarctic is a useful place to look for historical data which can be used to validate models used for climate forecasting of future greenhouse gas induced climate changes, at local, regional and global scales. Good results may also be obtainable using tropical temperatures, particularly those over the ocean. While the greater area in the tropics makes them an attractive area for seeking data, polar amplification of temperature changes may mean that the Antarctic provides a clearer signal relative to the uncertainties in data and model results. Our result for Greenland is not so strong, possibly due to difficulties in accurately modelling the sea ice extent. The MIROC3.2 model shows an asymmetry in climate sensitivity calculated by decreasing rather than increasing the greenhouse gases, with 80% of the ensemble having a weaker cooling than warming. This asymmetry, if confirmed by other studies would mean that direct estimates of climate sensitivity from the LGM are likely to be underestimated by the order of half a degree. Our suspicion is, however, that this result may be highly model dependent. Analysis of the parameters varied in the model suggest the asymmetrical response may be linked to the ice in the clouds, which is therefore indicated as an important area for future research.

  3. Critical point of Nf=3 QCD from lattice simulations in the canonical ensemble

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Anyi; Alexandru, Andrei; Liu, Keh-Fei

    2011-01-01

    A canonical ensemble algorithm is employed to study the phase diagram of N f =3 QCD using lattice simulations. We lock in the desired quark number sector using an exact Fourier transform of the fermion determinant. We scan the phase space below T c and look for an S-shape structure in the chemical potential, which signals the coexistence phase of a first order phase transition in finite volume. Applying Maxwell construction, we determine the boundaries of the coexistence phase at three temperatures and extrapolate them to locate the critical point. Using an improved gauge action and improved Wilson fermions on lattices with a spatial extent of 1.8 fm and quark masses close to that of the strange, we find the critical point at T E =0.925(5)T c and baryon chemical potential μ B E =2.60(8)T c .

  4. Simulating prescribed particle densities in the grand canonical ensemble using iterative algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malasics, Attila; Gillespie, Dirk; Boda, Dezso

    2008-03-28

    We present two efficient iterative Monte Carlo algorithms in the grand canonical ensemble with which the chemical potentials corresponding to prescribed (targeted) partial densities can be determined. The first algorithm works by always using the targeted densities in the kT log(rho(i)) (ideal gas) terms and updating the excess chemical potentials from the previous iteration. The second algorithm extrapolates the chemical potentials in the next iteration from the results of the previous iteration using a first order series expansion of the densities. The coefficients of the series, the derivatives of the densities with respect to the chemical potentials, are obtained from the simulations by fluctuation formulas. The convergence of this procedure is shown for the examples of a homogeneous Lennard-Jones mixture and a NaCl-CaCl(2) electrolyte mixture in the primitive model. The methods are quite robust under the conditions investigated. The first algorithm is less sensitive to initial conditions.

  5. Advances in sequential data assimilation and numerical weather forecasting: An Ensemble Transform Kalman-Bucy Filter, a study on clustering in deterministic ensemble square root filters, and a test of a new time stepping scheme in an atmospheric model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amezcua, Javier

    This dissertation deals with aspects of sequential data assimilation (in particular ensemble Kalman filtering) and numerical weather forecasting. In the first part, the recently formulated Ensemble Kalman-Bucy (EnKBF) filter is revisited. It is shown that the previously used numerical integration scheme fails when the magnitude of the background error covariance grows beyond that of the observational error covariance in the forecast window. Therefore, we present a suitable integration scheme that handles the stiffening of the differential equations involved and doesn't represent further computational expense. Moreover, a transform-based alternative to the EnKBF is developed: under this scheme, the operations are performed in the ensemble space instead of in the state space. Advantages of this formulation are explained. For the first time, the EnKBF is implemented in an atmospheric model. The second part of this work deals with ensemble clustering, a phenomenon that arises when performing data assimilation using of deterministic ensemble square root filters in highly nonlinear forecast models. Namely, an M-member ensemble detaches into an outlier and a cluster of M-1 members. Previous works may suggest that this issue represents a failure of EnSRFs; this work dispels that notion. It is shown that ensemble clustering can be reverted also due to nonlinear processes, in particular the alternation between nonlinear expansion and compression of the ensemble for different regions of the attractor. Some EnSRFs that use random rotations have been developed to overcome this issue; these formulations are analyzed and their advantages and disadvantages with respect to common EnSRFs are discussed. The third and last part contains the implementation of the Robert-Asselin-Williams (RAW) filter in an atmospheric model. The RAW filter is an improvement to the widely popular Robert-Asselin filter that successfully suppresses spurious computational waves while avoiding any distortion

  6. Comparative Toxicity of Simulated Smog Atmospheres in ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Effects of complex regional multipollutant mixtures on disease expression in susceptible populations are dependent on multiple exposure and susceptibility factors. Differing profiles of ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and particulate matter (PM), which are key components of smog, and other hazardous pollutants may develop as a result of regional-specific geographic and urban environment characteristics. We investigated the pulmonary effects of two smog mixtures with different compositions in a mouse model of allergic airway disease to determine which source profile had the greatest impact on pulmonary endpoints. A hydrocarbon mixture was combined with NO gas in the presence of UV light in a controlled setting. Simulated smog atmosphere 1 (SSA-1) consisted of concentrations of 1070 µg/m3 secondary organic aerosol (SOA), 0.104 ppm O3, and 0.252 ppm NO2. SSA-2 consisted of a starting concentration of 53 µg/m3 SOA, 0.376 ppm O3, and 0.617 ppm NO2. An increased aerosol concentration was noted in the exposure chamber. Healthy and house dust mite (HDM)-sensitized (allergic) female BALB/cJ mice were exposed 4 hr/day for 1 or 5 days to either smog mixture or clean air. Two days after HDM challenge, airway mechanics were tested in anesthetized ventilated mice. Following methacholine aerosol challenge, increased airway resistance and elastance and a decrease in lung compliance were consistently observed in air- and smog-exposed HDM-allergic groups compared with non-a

  7. Application of NARR-based NLDAS Ensemble Simulations to Continental-Scale Drought Monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonge, C. J.; Cosgrove, B. A.

    2008-05-01

    Government estimates indicate that droughts cause billions of dollars of damage to agricultural interests each year. More effective identification of droughts would directly benefit decision makers, and would allow for the more efficient allocation of resources that might mitigate the event. Land data assimilation systems, with their high quality representations of soil moisture, present an ideal platform for drought monitoring, and offer many advantages over traditional modeling systems. The recently released North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) covers the NLDAS domain and provides all fields necessary to force the NLDAS for 27 years. This presents an ideal opportunity to combine NARR and NLDAS resources into an effective real-time drought monitor. Toward this end, our project seeks to validate and explore the NARR's suitability as a base for drought monitoring applications - both in terms of data set length and accuracy. Along the same lines, the project will examine the impact of the use of different (longer) LDAS model climatologies on drought monitoring, and will explore the advantages of ensemble simulations versus single model simulations in drought monitoring activities. We also plan to produce a NARR- and observation-based high quality 27 year, 1/8th degree, 3-hourly, land surface and meteorological forcing data sets. An investigation of the best way to force an LDAS-type system will also be made, with traditional NLDAS and NLDASE forcing options explored. This presentation will focus on an overview of the drought monitoring project, and will include a summary of recent progress. Developments include the generation of forcing data sets, ensemble LSM output, and production of model-based drought indices over the entire NLDAS domain. Project forcing files use 32km NARR model output as a data backbone, and include observed precipitation (blended CPC gauge, PRISM gauge, Stage II, HPD, and CMORPH) and a GOES-based bias correction of downward solar

  8. Comparing reconstructed past variations and future projections of the Baltic Sea ecosystem—first results from multi-model ensemble simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meier, H E Markus; Andersson, Helén C; Arheimer, Berit

    2012-01-01

    Multi-model ensemble simulations for the marine biogeochemistry and food web of the Baltic Sea were performed for the period 1850–2098, and projected changes in the future climate were compared with the past climate environment. For the past period 1850–2006, atmospheric, hydrological and nutrient...... forcings were reconstructed, based on historical measurements. For the future period 1961–2098, scenario simulations were driven by regionalized global general circulation model (GCM) data and forced by various future greenhouse gas emission and air- and riverborne nutrient load scenarios (ranging from...... a pessimistic ‘business-as-usual’ to the most optimistic case). To estimate uncertainties, different models for the various parts of the Earth system were applied. Assuming the IPCC greenhouse gas emission scenarios A1B or A2, we found that water temperatures at the end of this century may be higher...

  9. Multi-model ensemble hydrological simulation using a BP Neural Network for the upper Yalongjiang River Basin, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhanjie; Yu, Jingshan; Xu, Xinyi; Sun, Wenchao; Pang, Bo; Yue, Jiajia

    2018-06-01

    Hydrological models are important and effective tools for detecting complex hydrological processes. Different models have different strengths when capturing the various aspects of hydrological processes. Relying on a single model usually leads to simulation uncertainties. Ensemble approaches, based on multi-model hydrological simulations, can improve application performance over single models. In this study, the upper Yalongjiang River Basin was selected for a case study. Three commonly used hydrological models (SWAT, VIC, and BTOPMC) were selected and used for independent simulations with the same input and initial values. Then, the BP neural network method was employed to combine the results from the three models. The results show that the accuracy of BP ensemble simulation is better than that of the single models.

  10. Future projections of the surface heat and water budgets of the Mediterranean Sea in an ensemble of coupled atmosphere-ocean regional climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dubois, C.; Somot, S.; Deque, M.; Sevault, F. [CNRM-GAME, Meteo-France, CNRS, Toulouse (France); Calmanti, S.; Carillo, A.; Dell' Aquilla, A.; Sannino, G. [ENEA, Rome (Italy); Elizalde, A.; Jacob, D. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Gualdi, S.; Oddo, P.; Scoccimarro, E. [INGV, Bologna (Italy); L' Heveder, B.; Li, L. [Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Paris (France)

    2012-10-15

    Within the CIRCE project ''Climate change and Impact Research: the Mediterranean Environment'', an ensemble of high resolution coupled atmosphere-ocean regional climate models (AORCMs) are used to simulate the Mediterranean climate for the period 1950-2050. For the first time, realistic net surface air-sea fluxes are obtained. The sea surface temperature (SST) variability is consistent with the atmospheric forcing above it and oceanic constraints. The surface fluxes respond to external forcing under a warming climate and show an equivalent trend in all models. This study focuses on the present day and on the evolution of the heat and water budget over the Mediterranean Sea under the SRES-A1B scenario. On the contrary to previous studies, the net total heat budget is negative over the present period in all AORCMs and satisfies the heat closure budget controlled by a net positive heat gain at the strait of Gibraltar in the present climate. Under climate change scenario, some models predict a warming of the Mediterranean Sea from the ocean surface (positive net heat flux) in addition to the positive flux at the strait of Gibraltar for the 2021-2050 period. The shortwave and latent flux are increasing and the longwave and sensible fluxes are decreasing compared to the 1961-1990 period due to a reduction of the cloud cover and an increase in greenhouse gases (GHGs) and SSTs over the 2021-2050 period. The AORCMs provide a good estimates of the water budget with a drying of the region during the twenty-first century. For the ensemble mean, he decrease in precipitation and runoff is about 10 and 15% respectively and the increase in evaporation is much weaker, about 2% compared to the 1961-1990 period which confirm results obtained in recent studies. Despite a clear consistency in the trends and results between the models, this study also underlines important differences in the model set-ups, methodology and choices of some physical parameters inducing

  11. Using paleoclimate proxy-data to select optimal realisations in an ensemble of simulations of the climate of the past millennium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goosse, Hugues [Universite Catholique de Louvain, Institut d' Astronomie et de Geophysique G. Lemaitre, Chemin du Cyclotron, 2, 1348, Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Renssen, Hans [Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, Amsterdam, HV (Netherlands); Timmermann, Axel [University of Hawaii, IPRC, SOEST, Honolulu, HI (United States); Bradley, Raymond S. [University of Massachusetts, Department of Geosciences, Masschusetts, MA (United States); Mann, Michael E. [Pennsylvania State University, Department of Meteorology and Earth and Environmental Systems Institute (EESI), Pennsylvania, PA (United States)

    2006-08-15

    We present and describe in detail the advantages and limitations of a technique that combines in an optimal way model results and proxy-data time series in order to obtain states of the climate system consistent with model physics, reconstruction of past radiative forcing and proxy records. To achieve this goal, we select among an ensemble of simulations covering the last millennium performed with a low-resolution 3-D climate model the ones that minimise a cost function. This cost function measures the misfit between model results and proxy records. In the framework of the tests performed here, an ensemble of 30 to 40 simulations appears sufficient to reach reasonable correlations between model results and reconstructions, in configurations for which a small amount of data is available as well as in data-rich areas. Preliminary applications of the technique show that it can be used to provide reconstructions of past large-scale temperature changes, complementary to the ones obtained by statistical methods. Furthermore, as model results include a representation of atmospheric and oceanic circulations, it can be used to provide insights into some amplification mechanisms responsible for past temperature changes. On the other hand, if the number of proxy records is too low, it could not be used to provide reconstructions of past changes at a regional scale. (orig.)

  12. Equipartition terms in transition path ensemble: Insights from molecular dynamics simulations of alanine dipeptide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Wenjin

    2018-02-01

    Transition path ensemble consists of reactive trajectories and possesses all the information necessary for the understanding of the mechanism and dynamics of important condensed phase processes. However, quantitative description of the properties of the transition path ensemble is far from being established. Here, with numerical calculations on a model system, the equipartition terms defined in thermal equilibrium were for the first time estimated in the transition path ensemble. It was not surprising to observe that the energy was not equally distributed among all the coordinates. However, the energies distributed on a pair of conjugated coordinates remained equal. Higher energies were observed to be distributed on several coordinates, which are highly coupled to the reaction coordinate, while the rest were almost equally distributed. In addition, the ensemble-averaged energy on each coordinate as a function of time was also quantified. These quantitative analyses on energy distributions provided new insights into the transition path ensemble.

  13. Analyzing the uncertainty of ensemble-based gridded observations in land surface simulations and drought assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmadalipour, Ali; Moradkhani, Hamid

    2017-12-01

    Hydrologic modeling is one of the primary tools utilized for drought monitoring and drought early warning systems. Several sources of uncertainty in hydrologic modeling have been addressed in the literature. However, few studies have assessed the uncertainty of gridded observation datasets from a drought monitoring perspective. This study provides a hydrologic modeling oriented analysis of the gridded observation data uncertainties over the Pacific Northwest (PNW) and its implications on drought assessment. We utilized a recently developed 100-member ensemble-based observed forcing data to simulate hydrologic fluxes at 1/8° spatial resolution using Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, and compared the results with a deterministic observation. Meteorological and hydrological droughts are studied at multiple timescales over the basin, and seasonal long-term trends and variations of drought extent is investigated for each case. Results reveal large uncertainty of observed datasets at monthly timescale, with systematic differences for temperature records, mainly due to different lapse rates. The uncertainty eventuates in large disparities of drought characteristics. In general, an increasing trend is found for winter drought extent across the PNW. Furthermore, a ∼3% decrease per decade is detected for snow water equivalent (SWE) over the PNW, with the region being more susceptible to SWE variations of the northern Rockies than the western Cascades. The agricultural areas of southern Idaho demonstrate decreasing trend of natural soil moisture as a result of precipitation decline, which implies higher appeal for anthropogenic water storage and irrigation systems.

  14. Towards a GME ensemble forecasting system: Ensemble initialization using the breeding technique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan D. Keller

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The quantitative forecast of precipitation requires a probabilistic background particularly with regard to forecast lead times of more than 3 days. As only ensemble simulations can provide useful information of the underlying probability density function, we built a new ensemble forecasting system (GME-EFS based on the GME model of the German Meteorological Service (DWD. For the generation of appropriate initial ensemble perturbations we chose the breeding technique developed by Toth and Kalnay (1993, 1997, which develops perturbations by estimating the regions of largest model error induced uncertainty. This method is applied and tested in the framework of quasi-operational forecasts for a three month period in 2007. The performance of the resulting ensemble forecasts are compared to the operational ensemble prediction systems ECMWF EPS and NCEP GFS by means of ensemble spread of free atmosphere parameters (geopotential and temperature and ensemble skill of precipitation forecasting. This comparison indicates that the GME ensemble forecasting system (GME-EFS provides reasonable forecasts with spread skill score comparable to that of the NCEP GFS. An analysis with the continuous ranked probability score exhibits a lack of resolution for the GME forecasts compared to the operational ensembles. However, with significant enhancements during the 3 month test period, the first results of our work with the GME-EFS indicate possibilities for further development as well as the potential for later operational usage.

  15. Boiling point determination using adiabatic Gibbs ensemble Monte Carlo simulations: application to metals described by embedded-atom potentials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelb, Lev D; Chakraborty, Somendra Nath

    2011-12-14

    The normal boiling points are obtained for a series of metals as described by the "quantum-corrected Sutton Chen" (qSC) potentials [S.-N. Luo, T. J. Ahrens, T. Çağın, A. Strachan, W. A. Goddard III, and D. C. Swift, Phys. Rev. B 68, 134206 (2003)]. Instead of conventional Monte Carlo simulations in an isothermal or expanded ensemble, simulations were done in the constant-NPH adabatic variant of the Gibbs ensemble technique as proposed by Kristóf and Liszi [Chem. Phys. Lett. 261, 620 (1996)]. This simulation technique is shown to be a precise tool for direct calculation of boiling temperatures in high-boiling fluids, with results that are almost completely insensitive to system size or other arbitrary parameters as long as the potential truncation is handled correctly. Results obtained were validated using conventional NVT-Gibbs ensemble Monte Carlo simulations. The qSC predictions for boiling temperatures are found to be reasonably accurate, but substantially underestimate the enthalpies of vaporization in all cases. This appears to be largely due to the systematic overestimation of dimer binding energies by this family of potentials, which leads to an unsatisfactory description of the vapor phase. © 2011 American Institute of Physics

  16. Ensemble averaged two-phase flow numerical simulation in vertical ducts for the void-studying behavior in BWRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohsen Sharifpur; Mahmoud Salehi; Ali Nouri Brojerdi; Ali Arefmanesh

    2003-01-01

    Investigation upon generation of vapor in the two-phase flow and predication of its behaviour is an important problem in nuclear industries. Here, the use of the ensemble averaging is to drive the governing equations for each phase in the bubbly two phase flow (two fluid model) and to simulate the water channel inside the four fuel rods along the vertical line. The governing equations will be simplified by having the experience on BWRs and data, which are obtained to find the distribution of void fraction, velocity and other parameters for each phase along the tube. Finally, we compare the results with the simulated results obtained from RELAP 5 Mode 2. The advantage of this work is to offer a new technique to solve the ensemble averaged two-phase flow by imposing the energy balance equation rather than to use the ordinary energy equations. (author)

  17. Evaluation of global fine-resolution precipitation products and their uncertainty quantification in ensemble discharge simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, W.; Zhang, C.; Fu, G.; Sweetapple, C.; Zhou, H.

    2016-02-01

    The applicability of six fine-resolution precipitation products, including precipitation radar, infrared, microwave and gauge-based products, using different precipitation computation recipes, is evaluated using statistical and hydrological methods in northeastern China. In addition, a framework quantifying uncertainty contributions of precipitation products, hydrological models, and their interactions to uncertainties in ensemble discharges is proposed. The investigated precipitation products are Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) products (TRMM3B42 and TRMM3B42RT), Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS)/Noah, Asian Precipitation - Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE), Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN), and a Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMAP-MVK+) product. Two hydrological models of different complexities, i.e. a water and energy budget-based distributed hydrological model and a physically based semi-distributed hydrological model, are employed to investigate the influence of hydrological models on simulated discharges. Results show APHRODITE has high accuracy at a monthly scale compared with other products, and GSMAP-MVK+ shows huge advantage and is better than TRMM3B42 in relative bias (RB), Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSE), root mean square error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (CC), false alarm ratio, and critical success index. These findings could be very useful for validation, refinement, and future development of satellite-based products (e.g. NASA Global Precipitation Measurement). Although large uncertainty exists in heavy precipitation, hydrological models contribute most of the uncertainty in extreme discharges. Interactions between precipitation products and hydrological models can have the similar magnitude of contribution to discharge uncertainty as the hydrological models. A

  18. Ensemble of European regional climate simulations for the winter of 2013 and 2014 from HadAM3P-RM3P

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaller, Nathalie; Sparrow, Sarah N.; Massey, Neil R.; Bowery, Andy; Miller, Jonathan; Wilson, Simon; Wallom, David C. H.; Otto, Friederike E. L.

    2018-04-01

    Large data sets used to study the impact of anthropogenic climate change on the 2013/14 floods in the UK are provided. The data consist of perturbed initial conditions simulations using the Weather@Home regional climate modelling framework. Two different base conditions, Actual, including atmospheric conditions (anthropogenic greenhouse gases and human induced aerosols) as at present and Natural, with these forcings all removed are available. The data set is made up of 13 different ensembles (2 actual and 11 natural) with each having more than 7500 members. The data is available as NetCDF V3 files representing monthly data within the period of interest (1st Dec 2013 to 15th February 2014) for both a specified European region at a 50 km horizontal resolution and globally at N96 resolution. The data is stored within the UK Natural and Environmental Research Council Centre for Environmental Data Analysis repository.

  19. Ensemble mean climatology of snow darkening effect due to deposition of dust, black carbon, and organic carbon as simulated with the NASA GEOS-5 Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yasunari, T. J.; Lau, W. K.; Mahanama, S. P.; Colarco, P. R.; Koster, R. D.; Kim, K.; da Silva, A.

    2013-12-01

    The importance of the snow darkening effect (SDE) caused by solar absorbing aerosols such as dust and black carbon (BC) on climate has been discussed in previous studies. We have developed a snow darkening package for the catchment land surface model coupled to the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5), Earth System Model. Our snow darkening package includes the schemes for snow albedo and mass concentration calculations in polluted snow by dust, BC, and organic carbon (OC) depositions. The snow darkening package is currently available for seasonal snowpack over the model-defined land areas, excluding sea ice and inland of the ice sheets. The depositions of the solar absorbing aerosols are obtained from the GOCART aerosol module in the GEOS-5. Here we show the preliminary results of ensemble mean climatology (EMC) of the full SDE (i.e., dust+BC+OC). Ensemble simulations covering 10-year of 2002-2011 were carried out with the GEOS-5 including and excluding the full SDE for which each has 10 ensemble members. Shortwave radiative forcing (RF) at the top of atmosphere under all-sky condition for the 10-member EMC of the full SDE was relatively larger over Europe, Central Asia (CA), the Himalayas, the Tibetan Plateau (TP), East Asia (EA), Eastern Siberia (ES), the US, and Canadian Arctic. The RF was the strongest over the Himalayas and the TP in the northern hemisphere. The increases of surface air temperature also well correspond to the RF pattern. Larger reductions of snow water equivalent in seasonal snowpack were seen over the Himalayas, the TP, Alaska, Western Canada, and Arctic regions. We will discuss more on the day of the presentation.

  20. Atmospheric blocking in the Climate SPHINX simulations: the role of orography and resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davini, Paolo; Corti, Susanna; D'Andrea, Fabio; Riviere, Gwendal; von Hardenberg, Jost

    2017-04-01

    The representation of atmospheric blocking in numerical simulations, especially over the Euro-Atlantic region, still represents a main concern for the climate modelling community. We here discuss the Northern Hemisphere winter atmospheric blocking representation in a set of 30-year simulations which has been performed in the framework of the PRACE project "Climate SPHINX". Simulations were run using the EC-Earth Global Climate Model with several ensemble members at 5 different horizontal resolutions (ranging from 125 km to 16 km). Results show that the negative bias in blocking frequency over Europe becomes negligible at resolutions of about 40 km and finer. However, the blocking duration is still underestimated by 1-2 days, suggesting that the correct blocking frequencies are achieved with an overestimation of the number of blocking onsets. The reasons leading to such improvements are then discussed, highlighting the role of orography in shaping the Atlantic jet stream: at higher resolution the jet is weaker and less penetrating over Europe, favoring the breaking of synoptic Rossby waves over the Atlantic stationary ridge and thus increasing the simulated blocking frequency.

  1. Attributing anthropogenic impact on regional heat wave events using CAM5 model large ensemble simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, S. H.; Chen, C. T.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme heat waves have serious impacts on society. It was argued that the anthropogenic forcing might substantially increase the risk of extreme heat wave events (e.g. over western Europe in 2003 and over Russia in 2010). However, the regional dependence of such anthropogenic impact and the sensitivity of the attributed risk to the definition of heat wave still require further studies. In our research framework, the change in the frequency and severity of a heat wave event under current conditions is calculated and compared with the probability and magnitude of the event if the effects of particular external forcing, such as due to human influence, had been absent. In our research, we use the CAM5 large ensemble simulation from the CLIVAR C20C+ Detection and Attribution project (http://portal.nersc.gov/c20c/main.html, Folland et al. 2014) to detect the heat wave events occurred in both historical all forcing run and natural forcing only run. The heat wave events are identified by partial duration series method (Huth et al., 2000). We test the sensitivity of heat wave thresholds from daily maximum temperature (Tmax) in warm season (from May to September) between 1959 and 2013. We consider the anthropogenic effect on the later period (2000-2013) when the warming due to human impact is more evident. Using Taiwan and surrounding area as our preliminary research target, We found the anthropogenic effect will increase the heat wave day per year from 30 days to 75 days and make the mean starting(ending) day for heat waves events about 15-30 days earlier(later). Using the Fraction of Attribution Risk analysis to estimate the risk of frequency of heat wave day, our results show the anthropogenic forcing very likely increase the heat wave days over Taiwan by more than 50%. Further regional differences and sensitivity of the attributed risk to the definition of heat wave will be compared and discussed.

  2. Simulation of containment atmosphere stratification experiment using local instantaneous description

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Babic, M.; Kljenak, I.

    2004-01-01

    An experiment on mixing and stratification in the atmosphere of a nuclear power plant containment at accident conditions was simulated with the CFD code CFX4.4. The original experiment was performed in the TOSQAN experimental facility. Simulated nonhomogeneous temperature, species concentration and velocity fields are compared to experimental results. (author)

  3. Optimized expanded ensembles for simulations involving molecular insertions and deletions. II. Open systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escobedo, Fernando A.

    2007-11-01

    In the Grand Canonical, osmotic, and Gibbs ensembles, chemical potential equilibrium is attained via transfers of molecules between the system and either a reservoir or another subsystem. In this work, the expanded ensemble (EXE) methods described in part I [F. A. Escobedo and F. J. Martínez-Veracoechea, J. Chem. Phys. 127, 174103 (2007)] of this series are extended to these ensembles to overcome the difficulties associated with implementing such whole-molecule transfers. In EXE, such moves occur via a target molecule that undergoes transitions through a number of intermediate coupling states. To minimize the tunneling time between the fully coupled and fully decoupled states, the intermediate states could be either: (i) sampled with an optimal frequency distribution (the sampling problem) or (ii) selected with an optimal spacing distribution (staging problem). The sampling issue is addressed by determining the biasing weights that would allow generating an optimal ensemble; discretized versions of this algorithm (well suited for small number of coupling stages) are also presented. The staging problem is addressed by selecting the intermediate stages in such a way that a flat histogram is the optimized ensemble. The validity of the advocated methods is demonstrated by their application to two model problems, the solvation of large hard spheres into a fluid of small and large spheres, and the vapor-liquid equilibrium of a chain system.

  4. Statistical simulation of ensembles of precipitation fields for data assimilation applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haese, Barbara; Hörning, Sebastian; Chwala, Christian; Bárdossy, András; Schalge, Bernd; Kunstmann, Harald

    2017-04-01

    The simulation of the hydrological cycle by models is an indispensable tool for a variety of environmental challenges such as climate prediction, water resources management, or flood forecasting. One of the crucial variables within the hydrological system, and accordingly one of the main drivers for terrestrial hydrological processes, is precipitation. A correct reproduction of the spatio-temporal distribution of precipitation is crucial for the quality and performance of hydrological applications. In our approach we stochastically generate precipitation fields conditioned on various precipitation observations. Rain gauges provide high-quality information for a specific measurement point, but their spatial representativeness is often rare. Microwave links, e. g. from commercial cellular operators, on the other hand can be used to estimate line integrals of near-surface rainfall information. They provide a very dense observational system compared to rain gauges. A further prevalent source of precipitation information are weather radars, which provide rainfall pattern informations. In our approach we derive precipitation fields, which are conditioned on combinations of these different observation types. As method to generate precipitation fields we use the random mixing method. Following this method a precipitation field is received as a linear combination of unconditional spatial random fields, where the spatial dependence structure is described by copulas. The weights of the linear combination are chosen in the way that the observations and the spatial structure of precipitation are reproduced. One main advantage of the random mixing method is the opportunity to consider linear and non-linear constraints. For a demonstration of the method we use virtual observations generated from a virtual reality of the Neckar catchment. These virtual observations mimic advantages and disadvantages of real observations. This virtual data set allows us to evaluate simulated

  5. The WASCAL high-resolution regional climate simulation ensemble for West Africa: concept, dissemination and assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heinzeller, Dominikus; Dieng, Diarra; Smiatek, Gerhard; Olusegun, Christiana; Klein, Cornelia; Hamann, Ilse; Salack, Seyni; Bliefernicht, Jan; Kunstmann, Harald

    2018-04-01

    Climate change and constant population growth pose severe challenges to 21st century rural Africa. Within the framework of the West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL), an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change scenarios for the greater West African region is provided to support the development of effective adaptation and mitigation measures. This contribution presents the overall concept of the WASCAL regional climate simulations, as well as detailed information on the experimental design, and provides information on the format and dissemination of the available data. All data are made available to the public at the CERA long-term archive of the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ) with a subset available at the PANGAEA Data Publisher for Earth & Environmental Science portal (https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.880512" target="_blank">https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.880512). A brief assessment of the data are presented to provide guidance for future users. Regional climate projections are generated at high (12 km) and intermediate (60 km) resolution using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). The simulations cover the validation period 1980-2010 and the two future periods 2020-2050 and 2070-2100. A brief comparison to observations and two climate change scenarios from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) initiative is presented to provide guidance on the data set to future users and to assess their climate change signal. Under the RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) scenario, the results suggest an increase in temperature by 1.5 °C at the coast of Guinea and by up to 3 °C in the northern Sahel by the end of the 21st century, in line with existing climate projections for the region. They also project an increase in precipitation by up to 300 mm per year along the coast of Guinea, by up to 150 mm per year in the Soudano region adjacent in the north and

  6. Validation of precipitation over Japan during 1985-2004 simulated by three regional climate models and two multi-model ensemble means

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ishizaki, Yasuhiro [Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba (Japan); National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba (Japan); Nakaegawa, Toshiyuki; Takayabu, Izuru [Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba (Japan)

    2012-07-15

    We dynamically downscaled Japanese reanalysis data (JRA-25) for 60 regions of Japan using three regional climate models (RCMs): the Non-Hydrostatic Regional Climate Model (NHRCM), modified RAMS version 4.3 (NRAMS), and modified Weather Research and Forecasting model (TWRF). We validated their simulations of the precipitation climatology and interannual variations of summer and winter precipitation. We also validated precipitation for two multi-model ensemble means: the arithmetic ensemble mean (AEM) and an ensemble mean weighted according to model reliability. In the 60 regions NRAMS simulated both the winter and summer climatological precipitation better than JRA-25, and NHRCM simulated the wintertime precipitation better than JRA-25. TWRF, however, overestimated precipitation in the 60 regions in both the winter and summer, and NHRCM overestimated precipitation in the summer. The three RCMs simulated interannual variations, particularly summer precipitation, better than JRA-25. AEM simulated both climatological precipitation and interannual variations during the two seasons more realistically than JRA-25 and the three RCMs overall, but the best RCM was often superior to the AEM result. In contrast, the weighted ensemble mean skills were usually superior to those of the best RCM. Thus, both RCMs and multi-model ensemble means, especially multi-model ensemble means weighted according to model reliability, are powerful tools for simulating seasonal and interannual variability of precipitation in Japan under the current climate. (orig.)

  7. Multi-ensemble regional simulation of Indian monsoon during contrasting rainfall years: role of convective schemes and nested domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devanand, Anjana; Ghosh, Subimal; Paul, Supantha; Karmakar, Subhankar; Niyogi, Dev

    2018-06-01

    Regional simulations of the seasonal Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) require an understanding of the model sensitivities to physics and resolution, and its effect on the model uncertainties. It is also important to quantify the added value in the simulated sub-regional precipitation characteristics by a regional climate model (RCM), when compared to coarse resolution rainfall products. This study presents regional model simulations of ISMR at seasonal scale using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with the synoptic scale forcing from ERA-interim reanalysis, for three contrasting monsoon seasons, 1994 (excess), 2002 (deficit) and 2010 (normal). Impact of four cumulus schemes, viz., Kain-Fritsch (KF), Betts-Janjić-Miller, Grell 3D and modified Kain-Fritsch (KFm), and two micro physical parameterization schemes, viz., WRF Single Moment Class 5 scheme and Lin et al. scheme (LIN), with eight different possible combinations are analyzed. The impact of spectral nudging on model sensitivity is also studied. In WRF simulations using spectral nudging, improvement in model rainfall appears to be consistent in regions with topographic variability such as Central Northeast and Konkan Western Ghat sub-regions. However the results are also dependent on choice of cumulus scheme used, with KF and KFm providing relatively good performance and the eight member ensemble mean showing better results for these sub-regions. There is no consistent improvement noted in Northeast and Peninsular Indian monsoon regions. Results indicate that the regional simulations using nested domains can provide some improvements on ISMR simulations. Spectral nudging is found to improve upon the model simulations in terms of reducing the intra ensemble spread and hence the uncertainty in the model simulated precipitation. The results provide important insights regarding the need for further improvements in the regional climate simulations of ISMR for various sub-regions and contribute

  8. Multi-ensemble regional simulation of Indian monsoon during contrasting rainfall years: role of convective schemes and nested domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devanand, Anjana; Ghosh, Subimal; Paul, Supantha; Karmakar, Subhankar; Niyogi, Dev

    2017-08-01

    Regional simulations of the seasonal Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) require an understanding of the model sensitivities to physics and resolution, and its effect on the model uncertainties. It is also important to quantify the added value in the simulated sub-regional precipitation characteristics by a regional climate model (RCM), when compared to coarse resolution rainfall products. This study presents regional model simulations of ISMR at seasonal scale using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with the synoptic scale forcing from ERA-interim reanalysis, for three contrasting monsoon seasons, 1994 (excess), 2002 (deficit) and 2010 (normal). Impact of four cumulus schemes, viz., Kain-Fritsch (KF), Betts-Janjić-Miller, Grell 3D and modified Kain-Fritsch (KFm), and two micro physical parameterization schemes, viz., WRF Single Moment Class 5 scheme and Lin et al. scheme (LIN), with eight different possible combinations are analyzed. The impact of spectral nudging on model sensitivity is also studied. In WRF simulations using spectral nudging, improvement in model rainfall appears to be consistent in regions with topographic variability such as Central Northeast and Konkan Western Ghat sub-regions. However the results are also dependent on choice of cumulus scheme used, with KF and KFm providing relatively good performance and the eight member ensemble mean showing better results for these sub-regions. There is no consistent improvement noted in Northeast and Peninsular Indian monsoon regions. Results indicate that the regional simulations using nested domains can provide some improvements on ISMR simulations. Spectral nudging is found to improve upon the model simulations in terms of reducing the intra ensemble spread and hence the uncertainty in the model simulated precipitation. The results provide important insights regarding the need for further improvements in the regional climate simulations of ISMR for various sub-regions and contribute

  9. Molecular dynamics simulation of the local concentration and structure in multicomponent aerosol nanoparticles under atmospheric conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karadima, Katerina S; Mavrantzas, Vlasis G; Pandis, Spyros N

    2017-06-28

    Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations were employed to investigate the local structure and local concentration in atmospheric nanoparticles consisting of an organic compound (cis-pinonic acid or n-C 30 H 62 ), sulfate and ammonium ions, and water. Simulations in the isothermal-isobaric (NPT) statistical ensemble under atmospheric conditions with a prespecified number of molecules of the abovementioned compounds led to the formation of a nanoparticle. Calculations of the density profiles of all the chemical species in the nanoparticle, the corresponding radial pair distribution functions, and their mobility inside the nanoparticle revealed strong interactions developing between sulfate and ammonium ions. However, sulfate and ammonium ions prefer to populate the central part of the nanoparticle under the simulated conditions, whereas organic molecules like to reside at its outer surface. Sulfate and ammonium ions were practically immobile; in contrast, the organic molecules exhibited appreciable mobility at the outer surface of the nanoparticle. When the organic compound was a normal alkane (e.g. n-C 30 H 62 ), a well-organized (crystalline-like) phase was rapidly formed at the free surface of the nanoparticle and remained separate from the rest of the species.

  10. Effects of land cover change on temperature and rainfall extremes in multi-model ensemble simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Pitman

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The impact of historical land use induced land cover change (LULCC on regional-scale climate extremes is examined using four climate models within the Land Use and Climate, IDentification of robust impacts project. To assess those impacts, multiple indices based on daily maximum and minimum temperatures and daily precipitation were used. We contrast the impact of LULCC on extremes with the impact of an increase in atmospheric CO2 from 280 ppmv to 375 ppmv. In general, consistent changes in both high and low temperature extremes are similar to the simulated change in mean temperature caused by LULCC and are restricted to regions of intense modification. The impact of LULCC on both means and on most temperature extremes is statistically significant. While the magnitude of the LULCC-induced change in the extremes can be of similar magnitude to the response to the change in CO2, the impacts of LULCC are much more geographically isolated. For most models, the impacts of LULCC oppose the impact of the increase in CO2 except for one model where the CO2-caused changes in the extremes are amplified. While we find some evidence that individual models respond consistently to LULCC in the simulation of changes in rainfall and rainfall extremes, LULCC's role in affecting rainfall is much less clear and less commonly statistically significant, with the exception of a consistent impact over South East Asia. Since the simulated response of mean and extreme temperatures to LULCC is relatively large, we conclude that unless this forcing is included, we risk erroneous conclusions regarding the drivers of temperature changes over regions of intense LULCC.

  11. Ensemble simulations to study the impact of land use change of Atlanta to regional climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, P.; Hu, Y.; Stone, B.; Vargo, J.; Nenes, A.; Russell, A.; Trail, M.; Tsimpidi, A.

    2012-12-01

    Studies show that urban areas may be the "first responders" to climate change (Rosenzweig et al., 2010). Of particular interest is the potential increased temperatures in urban areas, due to use of structures and surfaces that increase local heating, and how that may impact health, air quality and other environmental factors. In response, interest has grown as to how the modification of land use in urban areas, in order to mitigate the adverse effects of urbanization can serve to reduce local temperatures, and how climate is impacted more regionally. Studies have been conducted to investigate the impact of land use change on local or regional climate by dynamic downscaling using regional climate models (RCMs), the boundary conditions (BCs) and initial conditions (ICs) of which result from coarser-resolution reanalysis data or general circulation models (GCMs). However, few studies have focused on demonstrating whether the land use change in local areas significantly impacts the climate of the larger region of the domain, and the spatial scale of the impact from urban-scale changes. This work investigated the significance of the impact of land use change in the Atlanta city area on different scales, using a range of modeling resolutions, including the contiguous US (with 36km resolution), the southeastern US (with 12km resolution) and the state of Georgia (with 4km resolution). We used WRF version 3.1.1 with and ran continuous from June to August of a simulated year 2050, driven by GISS ModelE with inputs corresponding to RCP4.5. During the simulation, spectral nudging is used in the 36km resolution domain to maintain the climate patterns with scales larger than 2000km. Two-way nesting is also used in order to take into account the feedback of nesting domains across model domains. Two land use cases over the Atlanta city are chosen. For the base case, most of the urban area of Atlanta is covered with forest; while for the second, "impervious" case, all the urban

  12. Large-eddy simulation of atmospheric flow over complex terrain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bechmann, Andreas

    2007-01-01

    The present report describes the development and validation of a turbulence model designed for atmospheric flows based on the concept of Large-Eddy Simulation (LES). The background for the work is the high Reynolds number k - #epsilon# model, which has been implemented on a finite-volume code...... turbulence model is able to handle both engineering and atmospheric flows and can be run in both RANS or LES mode. For LES simulations a time-dependent wind field that accurately represents the turbulent structures of a wind environment must be prescribed at the computational inlet. A method is implemented...... where the turbulent wind field from a separate LES simulation can be used as inflow. To avoid numerical dissipation of turbulence special care is paid to the numerical method, e.g. the turbulence model is calibrated with the specific numerical scheme used. This is done by simulating decaying isotropic...

  13. Surface drift prediction in the Adriatic Sea using hyper-ensemble statistics on atmospheric, ocean and wave models: Uncertainties and probability distribution areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rixen, M.; Ferreira-Coelho, E.; Signell, R.

    2008-01-01

    Despite numerous and regular improvements in underlying models, surface drift prediction in the ocean remains a challenging task because of our yet limited understanding of all processes involved. Hence, deterministic approaches to the problem are often limited by empirical assumptions on underlying physics. Multi-model hyper-ensemble forecasts, which exploit the power of an optimal local combination of available information including ocean, atmospheric and wave models, may show superior forecasting skills when compared to individual models because they allow for local correction and/or bias removal. In this work, we explore in greater detail the potential and limitations of the hyper-ensemble method in the Adriatic Sea, using a comprehensive surface drifter database. The performance of the hyper-ensembles and the individual models are discussed by analyzing associated uncertainties and probability distribution maps. Results suggest that the stochastic method may reduce position errors significantly for 12 to 72??h forecasts and hence compete with pure deterministic approaches. ?? 2007 NATO Undersea Research Centre (NURC).

  14. Simulating ensembles of nonlinear continuous time dynamical systems via active ultra wideband wireless network

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dmitriev, Alexander S.; Yemelyanov, Ruslan Yu. [V.A. Kotelnikov Institute of Radio Engineering and Electronics of the RAS Mokhovaya 11-7, Moscow, 125009 (Russian Federation); Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology (State University) 9 Institutskiy per., Dolgoprudny, Moscow, 141700 (Russian Federation); Gerasimov, Mark Yu. [V.A. Kotelnikov Institute of Radio Engineering and Electronics of the RAS Mokhovaya 11-7, Moscow, 125009 (Russian Federation); Itskov, Vadim V. [Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology (State University) 9 Institutskiy per., Dolgoprudny, Moscow, 141700 (Russian Federation)

    2016-06-08

    The paper deals with a new multi-element processor platform assigned for modelling the behaviour of interacting dynamical systems, i.e., active wireless network. Experimentally, this ensemble is implemented in an active network, the active nodes of which include direct chaotic transceivers and special actuator boards containing microcontrollers for modelling the dynamical systems and an information display unit (colored LEDs). The modelling technique and experimental results are described and analyzed.

  15. Dynamics and Chemistry in Jovian Atmospheres: 2D Hydrodynamical Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bordwell, B. R.; Brown, B. P.; Oishi, J.

    2016-12-01

    A key component of our understanding of the formation and evolution of planetary systems is chemical composition. Problematically, however, in the atmospheres of cooler gas giants, dynamics on the same timescale as chemical reactions pull molecular abundances out of thermochemical equilibrium. These disequilibrium abundances are treated using what is known as the "quench" approximation, based upon the mixing length theory of convection. The validity of this approximation is questionable, though, as the atmospheres of gas giants encompass two distinct dynamic regimes: convective and radiative. To resolve this issue, we conduct 2D hydrodynamical simulations using the state-of-the-art pseudospectral simulation framework Dedalus. In these simulations, we solve the fully compressible equations of fluid motion in a local slab geometry that mimics the structure of a planetary atmosphere (convective zone underlying a radiative zone). Through the inclusion of passive tracers, we explore the transport properties of both regimes, and assess the validity of the classical eddy diffusion parameterization. With the addition of active tracers, we examine the interactions between dynamical and chemical processes, and generate prescriptions for the observational community. By providing insight into mixing and feedback mechanisms in Jovian atmospheres, this research lays a solid foundation for future global simulations and the construction of physically-sound models for current and future observations.

  16. Predominant nonlinear atmospheric response to meridional shift of the Gulf Stream path from the WRF atmospheric model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, H.; Kwon, Y. O.; Joyce, T. M.

    2016-02-01

    A remarkably strong nonlinear behavior of the atmospheric circulation response to North Atlantic SST anomalies (SSTA) is revealed from a set of large-ensemble, high-resolution, and hemispheric-scale Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations. The model is forced with the SSTA associated with meridional shift of the Gulf Stream (GS) path, constructed from a lag regression of the winter SST on a GS Index from observation. Analysis of the systematic set of experiments with SSTAs of varied amplitudes and switched signs representing various GS-shift scenarios provides unique insights into mechanism for emergence and evolution of transient and equilibrium response of atmospheric circulation to extratropical SSTA. Results show that, independent of sign of the SSTA, the equilibrium response is characterized by an anomalous trough over the North Atlantic Ocean and the Western Europe concurrent with enhanced storm track, increased rainfall, and reduced blocking days. To the north of the anomalous low, an anomalous ridge emerges over the Greenland, Iceland, and Norwegian Seas accompanied by weakened storm track, reduced rainfall and increased blocking days. This nonlinear component of the total response dominates the weak and oppositely signed linear response that is directly forced by the SSTA, yielding an anomalous ridge (trough) downstream of the warm (cold) SSTA. The amplitude of the linear response is proportional to that of the SSTA, but this is masked by the overwhelmingly strong nonlinear behavior showing no clear correspondence to the SSTA amplitude. The nonlinear pattern emerges 3-4 weeks after the model initialization in November and reaches its first peak amplitude in December/January. It appears that altered baroclinic wave activity due to the GS SSTA in November lead to low-frequency height responses in December/January through transient eddy vorticity flux convergence.

  17. Keeping it real: revisiting a real-space approach to running ensembles of cosmological N-body simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Orban, Chris

    2013-01-01

    In setting up initial conditions for ensembles of cosmological N-body simulations there are, fundamentally, two choices: either maximizing the correspondence of the initial density field to the assumed fourier-space clustering or, instead, matching to real-space statistics and allowing the DC mode (i.e. overdensity) to vary from box to box as it would in the real universe. As a stringent test of both approaches, I perform ensembles of simulations using power law and a ''powerlaw times a bump'' model inspired by baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO), exploiting the self-similarity of these initial conditions to quantify the accuracy of the matter-matter two-point correlation results. The real-space method, which was originally proposed by Pen 1997 [1] and implemented by Sirko 2005 [2], performed well in producing the expected self-similar behavior and corroborated the non-linear evolution of the BAO feature observed in conventional simulations, even in the strongly-clustered regime (σ 8 ∼>1). In revisiting the real-space method championed by [2], it was also noticed that this earlier study overlooked an important integral constraint correction to the correlation function in results from the conventional approach that can be important in ΛCDM simulations with L box ∼ −1 Gpc and on scales r∼>L box /10. Rectifying this issue shows that the fourier space and real space methods are about equally accurate and efficient for modeling the evolution and growth of the correlation function, contrary to previous claims. An appendix provides a useful independent-of-epoch analytic formula for estimating the importance of the integral constraint bias on correlation function measurements in ΛCDM simulations

  18. GCM simulations of cold dry Snowball Earth atmospheres

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voigt, A.; Held, I.; Marotzke, J.

    2009-12-01

    We use the full-physics atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5 to investigate cold and virtually dry Snowball Earth atmospheres. These result from specifying sea ice as the surface boundary condition everywhere, corresponding to a frozen aquaplanet, while keeping total solar irradiance at its present-day value of 1365 Wm-2 and setting atmospheric carbon dioxide to 300 ppmv. Here, we present four simulations corresponding to the four possible combinations of enabled or disabled diurnal and seasonal cycles. The aim of this study is twofold. First, we focus on the zonal-mean circulation of Snowball Earth atmospheres, which, due to missing moisture, might constitute an ideal though yet unexplored testbed for theories of atmospheric dynamics. Second, we investigate tropical surface temperatures with an emphasis on the impact of the diurnal and seasonal cycles. This will indicate whether the presence of the diurnal or seasonal cycle would facilitate or anticipate the escape from Snowball Earth conditions when total solar irradiance or atmospheric CO2 levels were increased. The dynamics of the tropical circulation in Snowball Earth atmospheres differs substantially from that in the modern atmosphere. The analysis of the mean zonal momentum budget reveals that the mean flow meridional advection of absolute vorticity is primarily balanced by vertical diffusion of zonal momentum. The contribution of eddies is found to be even smaller than the contribution of mean flow vertical advection of zonal momentum, the latter being usually neglected in theories for the Hadley circulation, at least in its upper tropospheric branch. Suppressing vertical diffusion of horizontal momentum above 850 hPa leads to a stronger Hadley circulation. This behaviour cannot be understood from axisymmetric models of the atmosphere, nor idealized atmospheric general circulation models, which both predict a weakening of the Hadley circulation when the vertical viscosity is decreased globally. We

  19. Influences of Appalachian orography on heavy rainfall and rainfall variability associated with the passage of hurricane Isabel by ensemble simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oldaker, Guy; Liu, Liping; Lin, Yuh-Lang

    2017-12-01

    This study focuses on the heavy rainfall event associated with hurricane Isabel's (2003) passage over the Appalachian mountains of the eastern United States. Specifically, an ensemble consisting of two groups of simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), with and without topography, is performed to investigate the orographic influences on heavy rainfall and rainfall variability. In general, the simulated ensemble mean with full terrain is able to reproduce the key observed 24-h rainfall amount and distribution, while the flat-terrain mean lacks in this respect. In fact, 30-h rainfall amounts are reduced by 75% with the removal of topography. Rainfall variability is also significantly increased with the presence of orography. Further analysis shows that the complex interaction between the hurricane and terrain along with contributions from varied microphysics, cumulus parametrization, and planetary boundary layer schemes have a pronounced effect on rainfall and rainfall variability. This study follows closely with a previous study, but for a different TC case of Isabel (2003). It is an important sensitivity test for a different TC in a very different environment. This study reveals that the rainfall variability behaves similarly, even with different settings of the environment.

  20. Atmospherical simulations of the OMEGA/MEX observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melchiorri, R.; Drossart, P.; Combes, M.; Encrenaz, T.; Fouchet, T.; Forget, F.; Bibring, J. P.; Ignatiev, N.; Moroz, V.; OMEGA Team

    The modelization of the atmospheric contribution in the martian spectrum is an important step for the OMEGA data analysis.A full line by line radiative transfer calculation is made for the gas absorption; the dust opacity component, in a first approximation, is calculated as an optically thin additive component.Due to the large number of parameters needed in the calculations, the building of a huge data base to be interpolated is not envisageable, for each observed OMEGA spectrum with calculation for all the involved parameters (atmospheric pressure, water abundance, CO abundance, dust opacity and geometric angles of observation). The simulation of the observations allows us to fix all the orbital parameters and leave the unknown parameters as the only variables.Starting from the predictions of the current meteorological models of Mars we build a smaller data base corresponding on each observation. We present here a first order simulation, which consists in retrieving atmospheric contribution from the solar reflected component as a multiplicative (for gas absorption) and an additive component (for suspended dust contribution); although a fully consistent approach will require to include surface and atmosphere contributions together in synthetic calculations, this approach is sufficient for retrieving mineralogic information cleaned from atmospheric absorption at first order.First comparison to OMEGA spectra will be presented, with first order retrieval of CO2 pressure, CO and H2O abundance, and dust opacity.

  1. Development and verification of a new wind speed forecasting system using an ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation technique in a fully coupled hydrologic and atmospheric model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, John L.; Maxwell, Reed M.; Monache, Luca Delle

    2013-12-01

    Wind power is rapidly gaining prominence as a major source of renewable energy. Harnessing this promising energy source is challenging because of the chaotic nature of wind and its inherently intermittent nature. Accurate forecasting tools are critical to support the integration of wind energy into power grids and to maximize its impact on renewable energy portfolios. We have adapted the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART), a community software facility which includes the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) algorithm, to expand our capability to use observational data to improve forecasts produced with a fully coupled hydrologic and atmospheric modeling system, the ParFlow (PF) hydrologic model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale atmospheric model, coupled via mass and energy fluxes across the land surface, and resulting in the PF.WRF model. Numerous studies have shown that soil moisture distribution and land surface vegetative processes profoundly influence atmospheric boundary layer development and weather processes on local and regional scales. We have used the PF.WRF model to explore the connections between the land surface and the atmosphere in terms of land surface energy flux partitioning and coupled variable fields including hydraulic conductivity, soil moisture, and wind speed and demonstrated that reductions in uncertainty in these coupled fields realized through assimilation of soil moisture observations propagate through the hydrologic and atmospheric system. The sensitivities found in this study will enable further studies to optimize observation strategies to maximize the utility of the PF.WRF-DART forecasting system.

  2. Simulating the reactions of CO2 in aqueous monoethanolamine solution by reaction ensemble Monte Carlo using the continuous fractional component method

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Balaji, S.P.; Gangarapu, S.; Ramdin, M.; Torres-Knoop, A.; Zuilhof, H.; Goetheer, E.L.V.; Dubbeldam, D.; Vlugt, T.J.H.

    2015-01-01

    Molecular simulations were used to compute the equilibrium concentrations of the different species in CO2/monoethanolamine solutions for different CO2 loadings. Simulations were performed in the Reaction Ensemble using the continuous fractional component Monte Carlo method at temperatures of 293,

  3. Uncertainty estimation and ensemble forecast with a chemistry-transport model - Application to air-quality modeling and simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mallet, Vivien

    2005-01-01

    The thesis deals with the evaluation of a chemistry-transport model, not primarily with classical comparisons to observations, but through the estimation of its a priori uncertainties due to input data, model formulation and numerical approximations. These three uncertainty sources are studied respectively on the basis of Monte Carlos simulations, multi-models simulations and numerical schemes inter-comparisons. A high uncertainty is found, in output ozone concentrations. In order to overtake the limitations due to the uncertainty, a solution is ensemble forecast. Through combinations of several models (up to forty-eight models) on the basis of past observations, the forecast can be significantly improved. The achievement of this work has also led to develop the innovative modelling-system Polyphemus. (author) [fr

  4. Towards Adaptive Grids for Atmospheric Boundary-Layer Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Hooft, J. Antoon; Popinet, Stéphane; van Heerwaarden, Chiel C.; van der Linden, Steven J. A.; de Roode, Stephan R.; van de Wiel, Bas J. H.

    2018-02-01

    We present a proof-of-concept for the adaptive mesh refinement method applied to atmospheric boundary-layer simulations. Such a method may form an attractive alternative to static grids for studies on atmospheric flows that have a high degree of scale separation in space and/or time. Examples include the diurnal cycle and a convective boundary layer capped by a strong inversion. For such cases, large-eddy simulations using regular grids often have to rely on a subgrid-scale closure for the most challenging regions in the spatial and/or temporal domain. Here we analyze a flow configuration that describes the growth and subsequent decay of a convective boundary layer using direct numerical simulation (DNS). We validate the obtained results and benchmark the performance of the adaptive solver against two runs using fixed regular grids. It appears that the adaptive-mesh algorithm is able to coarsen and refine the grid dynamically whilst maintaining an accurate solution. In particular, during the initial growth of the convective boundary layer a high resolution is required compared to the subsequent stage of decaying turbulence. More specifically, the number of grid cells varies by two orders of magnitude over the course of the simulation. For this specific DNS case, the adaptive solver was not yet more efficient than the more traditional solver that is dedicated to these types of flows. However, the overall analysis shows that the method has a clear potential for numerical investigations of the most challenging atmospheric cases.

  5. Coupling atmospheric and ocean wave models for storm simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Du, Jianting

    the atmosphere must, by conservation, result in the generation of the surface waves and currents. The physics-based methods are sensitive to the choice of wind-input source function (Sin), parameterization of high-frequency wave spectra tail, and numerical cut-off frequencies. Unfortunately, literature survey......This thesis studies the wind-wave interactions through the coupling between the atmospheric model and ocean surface wave models. Special attention is put on storm simulations in the North Sea for wind energy applications in the coastal zones. The two aspects, namely storm conditions and coastal...... shows that in most wind-wave coupling systems, either the Sin in the wave model is different from the one used for the momentum flux estimation in the atmospheric model, or the methods are too sensitive to the parameterization of high-frequency spectra tail and numerical cut-off frequencies. To confront...

  6. Numerical simulation of the circulation of the atmosphere of Titan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hourdin, F.; Levan, P.; Talagrand, O.; Courtin, Regis; Gautier, Daniel; Mckay, Christopher P.

    1992-01-01

    A three dimensional General Circulation Model (GCM) of Titan's atmosphere is described. Initial results obtained with an economical two dimensional (2D) axisymmetric version of the model presented a strong superrotation in the upper stratosphere. Because of this result, a more general numerical study of superrotation was started with a somewhat different version of the GCM. It appears that for a slowly rotating planet which strongly absorbs solar radiation, circulation is dominated by global equator to pole Hadley circulation and strong superrotation. The theoretical study of this superrotation is discussed. It is also shown that 2D simulations systemically lead to instabilities which make 2D models poorly adapted to numerical simulation of Titan's (or Venus) atmosphere.

  7. Optical intensity scintillation in the simulated atmospherical environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hajek, Lukas; Latal, Jan; Vanderka, Ales; Vitasek, Jan; Bojko, Marian; Bednarek, Lukas; Vasinek, Vladimir

    2016-09-01

    There are several parameters of the atmospheric environment which have an effect on the optical wireless connection. Effects like fog, snow or rain are ones of the effects which appears tendentiously and which are bound by season, geographic location, etc. One of the effects that appear with various intensity for the whole time is airflow. The airflow changes the local refractive index of the air and areas with lower or higher refractive index form. The light going through these areas refracts and due to the optical intensity scintillates on the detector of the receiver. The airflow forms on the basis of two effects in the atmosphere. The first is wind cut and flowing over barriers. The other is thermal flow when warm air rises to the higher layers of the atmosphere. The heart of this article is creation such an environment that will form airflow and the refractive index will scintillate. For the experiment, we used special laboratory box with high-speed ventilators and heating units to simulate atmospheric turbulence. We monitor the impact of ventilator arrangement and air temperature on the scintillation of the gas laser with wavelength 633 nm/15 mW. In the experiment, there is watched the difference in behavior between real measurement and flow simulation with the same peripheral conditions of the airflow in the area of 500 x 500 cm.

  8. Improving quantitative precipitation nowcasting with a local ensemble transform Kalman filter radar data assimilation system: observing system simulation experiments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chih-Chien Tsai

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This study develops a Doppler radar data assimilation system, which couples the local ensemble transform Kalman filter with the Weather Research and Forecasting model. The benefits of this system to quantitative precipitation nowcasting (QPN are evaluated with observing system simulation experiments on Typhoon Morakot (2009, which brought record-breaking rainfall and extensive damage to central and southern Taiwan. The results indicate that the assimilation of radial velocity and reflectivity observations improves the three-dimensional winds and rain-mixing ratio most significantly because of the direct relations in the observation operator. The patterns of spiral rainbands become more consistent between different ensemble members after radar data assimilation. The rainfall intensity and distribution during the 6-hour deterministic nowcast are also improved, especially for the first 3 hours. The nowcasts with and without radar data assimilation have similar evolution trends driven by synoptic-scale conditions. Furthermore, we carry out a series of sensitivity experiments to develop proper assimilation strategies, in which a mixed localisation method is proposed for the first time and found to give further QPN improvement in this typhoon case.

  9. Large-eddy simulation of atmospheric flow over complex terrain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bechmann, A.

    2006-11-15

    The present report describes the development and validation of a turbulence model designed for atmospheric flows based on the concept of Large-Eddy Simulation (LES). The background for the work is the high Reynolds number k - epsilon model, which has been implemented on a finite-volume code of the incompressible Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations (RANS). The k - epsilon model is traditionally used for RANS computations, but is here developed to also enable LES. LES is able to provide detailed descriptions of a wide range of engineering flows at low Reynolds numbers. For atmospheric flows, however, the high Reynolds numbers and the rough surface of the earth provide difficulties normally not compatible with LES. Since these issues are most severe near the surface they are addressed by handling the near surface region with RANS and only use LES above this region. Using this method, the developed turbulence model is able to handle both engineering and atmospheric flows and can be run in both RANS or LES mode. For LES simulations a time-dependent wind field that accurately represents the turbulent structures of a wind environment must be prescribed at the computational inlet. A method is implemented where the turbulent wind field from a separate LES simulation can be used as inflow. To avoid numerical dissipation of turbulence special care is paid to the numerical method, e.g. the turbulence model is calibrated with the specific numerical scheme used. This is done by simulating decaying isotropic and homogeneous turbulence. Three atmospheric test cases are investigated in order to validate the behavior of the presented turbulence model. Simulation of the neutral atmospheric boundary layer, illustrates the turbulence model ability to generate and maintain the turbulent structures responsible for boundary layer transport processes. Velocity and turbulence profiles are in good agreement with measurements. Simulation of the flow over the Askervein hill is also

  10. Time-dependent simulations of disk-embedded planetary atmospheres

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stökl, A.; Dorfi, E. A.

    2014-03-01

    At the early stages of evolution of planetary systems, young Earth-like planets still embedded in the protoplanetary disk accumulate disk gas gravitationally into planetary atmospheres. The established way to study such atmospheres are hydrostatic models, even though in many cases the assumption of stationarity is unlikely to be fulfilled. Furthermore, such models rely on the specification of a planetary luminosity, attributed to a continuous, highly uncertain accretion of planetesimals onto the surface of the solid core. We present for the first time time-dependent, dynamic simulations of the accretion of nebula gas into an atmosphere around a proto-planet and the evolution of such embedded atmospheres while integrating the thermal energy budget of the solid core. The spherical symmetric models computed with the TAPIR-Code (short for The adaptive, implicit RHD-Code) range from the surface of the rocky core up to the Hill radius where the surrounding protoplanetary disk provides the boundary conditions. The TAPIR-Code includes the hydrodynamics equations, gray radiative transport and convective energy transport. The results indicate that diskembedded planetary atmospheres evolve along comparatively simple outlines and in particular settle, dependent on the mass of the solid core, at characteristic surface temperatures and planetary luminosities, quite independent on numerical parameters and initial conditions. For sufficiently massive cores, this evolution ultimately also leads to runaway accretion and the formation of a gas planet.

  11. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) [1 Deg.

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) is a weather forecast model made up of 21 separate forecasts, or ensemble members. The National Centers for Environmental...

  12. Laboratory Simulations on Haze Formation in Cool Exoplanet Atmospheres

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Chao; Horst, Sarah; Lewis, Nikole; Yu, Xinting; McGuiggan, Patricia; Moses, Julianne I.

    2017-10-01

    The Kepler mission has shown that the most abundant types of planets are super-Earths and mini-Neptunes among ~3500 confirmed exoplanets, and these types of exoplanets are expected to exhibit a wide variety of atmospheric compositions. Recent transit spectra have demonstrated that clouds and/or hazes could play a significant role in these planetary atmospheres (Deming et al. 2013, Knutson et al. 2014, Kreidberg et al. 2014, Pont, et al. 2013). However, very little laboratory work has been done to understand the formation of haze over a broad range of atmospheric compositions. Here we conducted a series of laboratory simulations to investigate haze formation in a range of planetary atmospheres using our newly built Planetary HAZE Research (PHAZER) chamber (He et al. 2017). We ran experimental simulations for nine different atmospheres: three temperatures (300 K, 400 K, and 600 K) and three metallicities (100, 1000, and 10000 times solar metallicity) using AC glow discharge as an energy source to irradiate gas mixtures. We found that haze particles are formed in all nine experiments, but the haze production rates are dramatically different for different cases. We investigated the particle sizes of the haze particles deposited on quartz discs using atomic force microscopy (AFM). The AFM images show that the particle size varies from 30 nm to 200 nm. The haze particles are more uniform for 100x solar metallicity experiments (30 nm to 40 nm) while the particles sizes for 1000x and 10000x solar metallicity experiments have wider distributions (30 nm to 200 nm). The particle size affects the scattering of light, and thus the temperature structure of planetary atmospheres. The haze production rates and particle size distributions obtained here can serve as critical inputs to atmospheric physical and chemical tools to understand the exoplanetary atmospheres and help guide future TESS and JWST observations of super-Earths and mini-Neptunes.Ref:Deming, D., et al. 2013, Ap

  13. Can the confidence in long range atmospheric transport models be increased? The Pan-European experience of ENSEMBLE

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Galmarini, S.; Bianconi, R.; Klug, W.

    2004-01-01

    Is atmospheric dispersion forecasting an important asset of the early-phase nuclear emergency response management? Is there a 'perfect atmospheric dispersion model'? Is there a way to make the results of dispersion models more reliable and trustworthy? While seeking to answer these questions the ...

  14. Impact of GHG warming on the mean and extreme loading of particulate matter pollution in a chemistry-climate model ensemble simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Y.; Lamarque, J. F.; Wu, X.

    2017-12-01

    Particulate matter with the diameter smaller than 2.5 micrometers (PM2.5) poses health threats to human populations. Regardless of efforts to regulate the pollution sources, it is unclear how climate change caused by greenhouse gases (GHGs) would affect PM2.5 levels. Using century-long ensemble simulations with Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM1), we show that, if the anthropogenic emissions would remain at the level in the year 2005, the global surface concentration and atmospheric column burden of sulfate, black carbon, and primary organic carbon would still increase by 5-10% at the end of 21st century (2090-2100) due to global warming alone. The decrease in the wet removal flux of PM2.5, despite an increase in global precipitation, is the primary cause for the increase in the PM2.5 column burden. Regionally over North America and East Asia, a shift of future precipitation toward more frequent heavy events contributes to weakened wet removal fluxes. Based on the daily model output, the frequency and intensity of extreme pollution events are also studied. We found that both stagnation frequency and rainfall changes serve to worsen extreme pollution in the future.

  15. MAGNETOHYDRODYNAMIC SIMULATIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OF HD 209458b

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rogers, T. M.; Showman, A. P., E-mail: tami@lpl.arizona.edu, E-mail: showman@lpl.arizona.edu [Department of Planetary Sciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721 (United States)

    2014-02-10

    We present the first three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations of the atmosphere of HD 209458b which self-consistently include reduction of winds due to the Lorentz force and Ohmic heating. We find overall wind structures similar to that seen in previous models of hot Jupiter atmospheres, with strong equatorial jets and meridional flows poleward near the day side and equatorward near the night side. Inclusion of magnetic fields slows those winds and leads to Ohmic dissipation. We find wind slowing ranging from 10%-40% for reasonable field strengths. We find Ohmic dissipation rates ∼10{sup 17} W at 100 bar, orders of magnitude too small to explain the inflated radius of this planet. Faster wind speeds, not achievable in these anelastic calculations, may be able to increase this value somewhat, but likely will not be able to close the gap necessary to explain the inflated radius. We demonstrate that the discrepancy between the simulations presented here and previous models is due to inadequate treatment of magnetic field geometry and evolution. Induced poloidal fields become much larger than those imposed, highlighting the need for a self-consistent MHD treatment of these hot atmospheres.

  16. MAGNETOHYDRODYNAMIC SIMULATIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OF HD 209458b

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogers, T. M.; Showman, A. P.

    2014-01-01

    We present the first three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations of the atmosphere of HD 209458b which self-consistently include reduction of winds due to the Lorentz force and Ohmic heating. We find overall wind structures similar to that seen in previous models of hot Jupiter atmospheres, with strong equatorial jets and meridional flows poleward near the day side and equatorward near the night side. Inclusion of magnetic fields slows those winds and leads to Ohmic dissipation. We find wind slowing ranging from 10%-40% for reasonable field strengths. We find Ohmic dissipation rates ∼10 17  W at 100 bar, orders of magnitude too small to explain the inflated radius of this planet. Faster wind speeds, not achievable in these anelastic calculations, may be able to increase this value somewhat, but likely will not be able to close the gap necessary to explain the inflated radius. We demonstrate that the discrepancy between the simulations presented here and previous models is due to inadequate treatment of magnetic field geometry and evolution. Induced poloidal fields become much larger than those imposed, highlighting the need for a self-consistent MHD treatment of these hot atmospheres

  17. Large Atmospheric Computation on the Earth Simulator: The LACES Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michel Desgagné

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The Large Atmospheric Computation on the Earth Simulator (LACES project is a joint initiative between Canadian and Japanese meteorological services and academic institutions that focuses on the high resolution simulation of Hurricane Earl (1998. The unique aspect of this effort is the extent of the computational domain, which covers all of North America and Europe with a grid spacing of 1 km. The Canadian Mesoscale Compressible Community (MC2 model is shown to parallelize effectively on the Japanese Earth Simulator (ES supercomputer; however, even using the extensive computing resources of the ES Center (ESC, the full simulation for the majority of Hurricane Earl's lifecycle takes over eight days to perform and produces over 5.2 TB of raw data. Preliminary diagnostics show that the results of the LACES simulation for the tropical stage of Hurricane Earl's lifecycle compare well with available observations for the storm. Further studies involving advanced diagnostics have commenced, taking advantage of the uniquely large spatial extent of the high resolution LACES simulation to investigate multiscale interactions in the hurricane and its environment. It is hoped that these studies will enhance our understanding of processes occurring within the hurricane and between the hurricane and its planetary-scale environment.

  18. Simulated Tempering Distributed Replica Sampling, Virtual Replica Exchange, and Other Generalized-Ensemble Methods for Conformational Sampling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rauscher, Sarah; Neale, Chris; Pomès, Régis

    2009-10-13

    Generalized-ensemble algorithms in temperature space have become popular tools to enhance conformational sampling in biomolecular simulations. A random walk in temperature leads to a corresponding random walk in potential energy, which can be used to cross over energetic barriers and overcome the problem of quasi-nonergodicity. In this paper, we introduce two novel methods: simulated tempering distributed replica sampling (STDR) and virtual replica exchange (VREX). These methods are designed to address the practical issues inherent in the replica exchange (RE), simulated tempering (ST), and serial replica exchange (SREM) algorithms. RE requires a large, dedicated, and homogeneous cluster of CPUs to function efficiently when applied to complex systems. ST and SREM both have the drawback of requiring extensive initial simulations, possibly adaptive, for the calculation of weight factors or potential energy distribution functions. STDR and VREX alleviate the need for lengthy initial simulations, and for synchronization and extensive communication between replicas. Both methods are therefore suitable for distributed or heterogeneous computing platforms. We perform an objective comparison of all five algorithms in terms of both implementation issues and sampling efficiency. We use disordered peptides in explicit water as test systems, for a total simulation time of over 42 μs. Efficiency is defined in terms of both structural convergence and temperature diffusion, and we show that these definitions of efficiency are in fact correlated. Importantly, we find that ST-based methods exhibit faster temperature diffusion and correspondingly faster convergence of structural properties compared to RE-based methods. Within the RE-based methods, VREX is superior to both SREM and RE. On the basis of our observations, we conclude that ST is ideal for simple systems, while STDR is well-suited for complex systems.

  19. An observation-constrained multi-physics WRF ensemble for simulating European mega heat waves

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stegehuis, A.I.; Vautard, R.; Ciais, P.; Teuling, A.J.; Gonzalez Miralles, D.; Wild, M.

    2015-01-01

    Many climate models have difficulties in properly reproducing climate extremes, such as heat wave conditions. Here we use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model with a large combination of different atmospheric physics schemes, in combination with the NOAH land-surface

  20. An observation-constrained multi-physics WRF ensemble for simulating European mega heat waves

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stegehuis, A.I.; Vautard, R.; Ciais, P.; Teuling, A.J.; Miralles, D.G.; Wild, M.

    2015-01-01

    Many climate models have difficulties in properly reproducing climate extremes, such as heat wave conditions. Here we use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model with a large combination of different atmospheric physics schemes, in combination with the NOAH land-surface

  1. Modelization and numerical simulation of atmospheric aerosols dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Debry, Edouard

    2004-01-01

    Chemical-transport models are now able to describe in a realistic way gaseous pollutants behavior in the atmosphere. Nevertheless atmospheric pollution also exists as a fine suspended particles, called aerosols which interact with gaseous phase, solar radiation, and have their own dynamic behavior. The goal of this thesis is the modelization and numerical simulation of the General Dynamic Equation of aerosols (GDE). Part I deals with some theoretical aspects of aerosol modelization. Part II is dedicated to the building of one size resolved aerosol model (SIREAM). In part III we perform the reduction of this model in order to use it in dispersion models as POLAIR3D. Several modelization issues are still opened: organic aerosol matter, externally mixed aerosols, coupling with turbulent mixing, and nano-particles. (author) [fr

  2. Calculation and simulation of atmospheric refraction effects in maritime environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dion, Denis, Jr.; Gardenal, Lionel; Lahaie, P.; Forand, J. Luc

    2001-01-01

    Near the sea surface, atmospheric refraction and turbulence affect both IR transmission and image quality. This produces an impact on both the detection and classification/identification of targets. With the financial participation of the U.S. Office of Naval Research (ONR), Canada's Defence Research Establishment Valcartier (DREV) is developing PRIME (Propagation Resources In the Maritime Environment), a computer model aimed at describing the overall atmospheric effects on IR imagery systems in the marine surface layer. PRIME can be used as a complement to MODTRAN to compute the effective transmittance in the marine surface layer, taking into account the lens effects caused by refraction. It also provides information on image degradation caused by both refraction and turbulence. This paper reviews the refraction phenomena that take place in the surface layer and discusses their effects on target detection and identification. We then show how PRIME can benefit detection studies and image degradation simulations.

  3. A Coupled Atmospheric and Wave Modeling System for Storm Simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Du, Jianting; Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Bolanos, R.

    2015-01-01

    to parametrize z0. The results are validated through QuikScat data and point measurements from an open ocean site Ekosk and a coastal, relatively shallow water site Horns Rev. It is found that the modeling system captures in general better strong wind and strong wave characteristics for open ocean condition than......This study aims at improving the simulation of wind and waves during storms in connection with wind turbine design and operations in coastal areas. For this particular purpose, we investigated the Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) Modeling System which couples the Weather...... resolution ranging from 25km to 2km. Meanwhile, the atmospheric forcing data of dierent spatial resolution, with one about 100km (FNL) and the other about 38km (CFSR) are both used. In addition, bathymatry data of diferent resolutions (1arc-minute and 30arc-seconds) are used. We used three approaches...

  4. Vector Monte Carlo simulations on atmospheric scattering of polarization qubits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ming; Lu, Pengfei; Yu, Zhongyuan; Yan, Lei; Chen, Zhihui; Yang, Chuanghua; Luo, Xiao

    2013-03-01

    In this paper, a vector Monte Carlo (MC) method is proposed to study the influence of atmospheric scattering on polarization qubits for satellite-based quantum communication. The vector MC method utilizes a transmittance method to solve the photon free path for an inhomogeneous atmosphere and random number sampling to determine whether the type of scattering is aerosol scattering or molecule scattering. Simulations are performed for downlink and uplink. The degrees and the rotations of polarization are qualitatively and quantitatively obtained, which agree well with the measured results in the previous experiments. The results show that polarization qubits are well preserved in the downlink and uplink, while the number of received single photons is less than half of the total transmitted single photons for both links. Moreover, our vector MC method can be applied for the scattering of polarized light in other inhomogeneous random media.

  5. Identifying climate analogues for precipitation extremes for Denmark based on RCM simulations from the ENSEMBLES database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K; Funder, S G; Madsen, H

    2015-01-01

    Climate analogues, also denoted Space-For-Time, may be used to identify regions where the present climatic conditions resemble conditions of a past or future state of another location or region based on robust climate variable statistics in combination with projections of how these statistics change over time. The study focuses on assessing climate analogues for Denmark based on current climate data set (E-OBS) observations as well as the ENSEMBLES database of future climates with the aim of projecting future precipitation extremes. The local present precipitation extremes are assessed by means of intensity-duration-frequency curves for urban drainage design for the relevant locations being France, the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Denmark. Based on this approach projected increases of extreme precipitation by 2100 of 9 and 21% are expected for 2 and 10 year return periods, respectively. The results should be interpreted with caution as the best region to represent future conditions for Denmark is the coastal areas of Northern France, for which only little information is available with respect to present precipitation extremes.

  6. Using an ensemble of climate projections for simulating recent and near-future hydrological change to lake Vaenern in Sweden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olsson, Jonas; Yang, Wei; Graham, L. Phil; Rosberg, Joergen; Andreasson, Johan (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Inst., Norrkoeping (Sweden)), e-mail: jonas.olsson@smhi.se

    2011-01-15

    Lake Vaenern and River Goeta aelv in southern Sweden constitute a large and complex hydrological system that is highly vulnerable to climate change. In this study, an ensemble of 12 regional climate projections is used to simulate the inflow to Lake Vaenern by the HBV hydrological model. By using distribution based scaling of the climate model output, all projections can accurately reproduce the annual cycle of mean monthly inflows for the period 1961-1990 as simulated using HBV with observed temperature and precipitation ('HBVobs'). Significant changes towards higher winter inflow and a reduced spring flood were found when comparing the period 1991-2008 to 1961-1990 in the HBVobs simulations and the ability of the regional projections to reproduce these changes varied. The main uncertainties in the projections for 1991-2008 were found to originate from the global climate model used, including its initialization, and in one case, the emissions scenario, whereas the regional climate model used and its resolution showed a smaller influence. The projections that most accurately reproduce the recent change suggest that the current trends in the winter and spring inflows will continue over the period 2009-2030

  7. N2O and CO production by electric discharge - Atmospheric implications. [Venus atmosphere simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, J. S.; Howell, W. E.; Hughes, R. E.; Chameides, W. L.

    1979-01-01

    Enhanced levels of N2O and CO were measured in tropospheric air samples exposed to a 17,500-J laboratory discharge. These enhanced levels correspond to an N2O production rate of about 4 trillion molecules/J and a CO production rate of about 10 to the 14th molecules/J. The CO measurements suggest that the primary region of chemical production in the discharge is the shocked air surrounding the lightning channel, as opposed to the slower-cooling inner core. Additional experiments in a simulated Venus atmosphere (CO2 - 95%, N2 - 5%, at one atmosphere) indicate an enhancement of CO from less than 0.1 ppm prior to the laboratory discharge to more than 2000 ppm after the discharge. Comparison with theoretical calculations appears to confirm the ability of a shock-wave/thermochemical model to predict the rate of production of trace species by an electrical discharge.

  8. MESYST, Simulation of 3-D Tracer Dispersion in Atmosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mastrangelo, V.; Mehilli, I.

    2000-01-01

    1 - Description of program or function: Mesyst code is used for the simulation of 3D tracer dispersion in atmosphere. Three packages are part of this system: Cre-topo: prepares the terrain data for the Mesyst. Noabl: code calculates three- dimensional free divergence wind fields over complex terrain. Pas: Computing of tracer concentrations and depositions on a given domain. 2 - Method of solution: NOABL - Line Over Relaxation + Special adaptation of Gauss procedure. PAS - Monte Carlo Method. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: Computations: Mesh size: variable from some meters to some hundreds meters Mesh number: variable depending on available real data (some hundreds points on each directions)

  9. Simulation of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer for Wind Energy Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marjanovic, Nikola

    Energy production from wind is an increasingly important component of overall global power generation, and will likely continue to gain an even greater share of electricity production as world governments attempt to mitigate climate change and wind energy production costs decrease. Wind energy generation depends on wind speed, which is greatly influenced by local and synoptic environmental forcings. Synoptic forcing, such as a cold frontal passage, exists on a large spatial scale while local forcing manifests itself on a much smaller scale and could result from topographic effects or land-surface heat fluxes. Synoptic forcing, if strong enough, may suppress the effects of generally weaker local forcing. At the even smaller scale of a wind farm, upstream turbines generate wakes that decrease the wind speed and increase the atmospheric turbulence at the downwind turbines, thereby reducing power production and increasing fatigue loading that may damage turbine components, respectively. Simulation of atmospheric processes that span a considerable range of spatial and temporal scales is essential to improve wind energy forecasting, wind turbine siting, turbine maintenance scheduling, and wind turbine design. Mesoscale atmospheric models predict atmospheric conditions using observed data, for a wide range of meteorological applications across scales from thousands of kilometers to hundreds of meters. Mesoscale models include parameterizations for the major atmospheric physical processes that modulate wind speed and turbulence dynamics, such as cloud evolution and surface-atmosphere interactions. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used in this dissertation to investigate the effects of model parameters on wind energy forecasting. WRF is used for case study simulations at two West Coast North American wind farms, one with simple and one with complex terrain, during both synoptically and locally-driven weather events. The model's performance with different

  10. Nonequilibrium and generalized-ensemble molecular dynamics simulations for amyloid fibril

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Okumura, Hisashi [Research Center for Computational Science, Institute for Molecular Science, Okazaki, Aichi 444-8585 (Japan); Department of Structural Molecular Science, The Graduate University for Advanced Studies, Okazaki, Aichi 444-8585 (Japan)

    2015-12-31

    Amyloids are insoluble and misfolded fibrous protein aggregates and associated with more than 20 serious human diseases. We perform all-atom molecular dynamics simulations of amyloid fibril assembly and disassembly.

  11. Fast Generation of Ensembles of Cosmological N-Body Simulations via Mode-Resampling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schneider, M D; Cole, S; Frenk, C S; Szapudi, I

    2011-02-14

    We present an algorithm for quickly generating multiple realizations of N-body simulations to be used, for example, for cosmological parameter estimation from surveys of large-scale structure. Our algorithm uses a new method to resample the large-scale (Gaussian-distributed) Fourier modes in a periodic N-body simulation box in a manner that properly accounts for the nonlinear mode-coupling between large and small scales. We find that our method for adding new large-scale mode realizations recovers the nonlinear power spectrum to sub-percent accuracy on scales larger than about half the Nyquist frequency of the simulation box. Using 20 N-body simulations, we obtain a power spectrum covariance matrix estimate that matches the estimator from Takahashi et al. (from 5000 simulations) with < 20% errors in all matrix elements. Comparing the rates of convergence, we determine that our algorithm requires {approx}8 times fewer simulations to achieve a given error tolerance in estimates of the power spectrum covariance matrix. The degree of success of our algorithm indicates that we understand the main physical processes that give rise to the correlations in the matter power spectrum. Namely, the large-scale Fourier modes modulate both the degree of structure growth through the variation in the effective local matter density and also the spatial frequency of small-scale perturbations through large-scale displacements. We expect our algorithm to be useful for noise modeling when constraining cosmological parameters from weak lensing (cosmic shear) and galaxy surveys, rescaling summary statistics of N-body simulations for new cosmological parameter values, and any applications where the influence of Fourier modes larger than the simulation size must be accounted for.

  12. Matrix-product-state simulation of an extended Brueschweiler bulk-ensemble database search

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    SaiToh, Akira; Kitagawa, Masahiro

    2006-01-01

    Brueschweiler's database search in a spin Liouville space can be efficiently simulated on a conventional computer without error as long as the simulation cost of the internal circuit of an oracle function is polynomial, unlike the fact that in true NMR experiments, it suffers from an exponential decrease in the variation of a signal intensity. With the simulation method using the matrix-product-state proposed by Vidal [G. Vidal, Phys. Rev. Lett. 91, 147902 (2003)], we perform such a simulation. We also show the extensions of the algorithm without utilizing the J-coupling or DD-coupling splitting of frequency peaks in observation: searching can be completed with a single query in polynomial postoracle circuit complexities in an extension; multiple solutions of an oracle can be found in another extension whose query complexity is linear in the key length and in the number of solutions (this extension is to find all of marked keys). These extended algorithms are also simulated with the same simulation method

  13. Noise Reduction, Atmospheric Pressure Admittance Estimation and Long-Period Component Extraction in Time-Varying Gravity Signals Using Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linsong Wang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Time-varying gravity signals, with their nonlinear, non-stationary and multi-scale characteristics, record the physical responses of various geodynamic processes and consist of a blend of signals with various periods and amplitudes, corresponding to numerous phenomena. Superconducting gravimeter (SG records are processed in this study using a multi-scale analytical method and corrected for known effects to reduce noise, to study geodynamic phenomena using their gravimetric signatures. Continuous SG (GWR-C032 gravity and barometric data are decomposed into a series of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs using the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD method, which is proposed to alleviate some unresolved issues (the mode mixing problem and the end effect of the empirical mode decomposition (EMD. Further analysis of the variously scaled signals is based on a dyadic filter bank of the IMFs. The results indicate that removing the high-frequency IMFs can reduce the natural and man-made noise in the data, which are caused by electronic device noise, Earth background noise and the residual effects of pre-processing. The atmospheric admittances based on frequency changes are estimated from the gravity and the atmospheric pressure IMFs in various frequency bands. These time- and frequency-dependent admittance values can be used effectively to improve the atmospheric correction. Using the EEMD method as a filter, the long-period IMFs are extracted from the SG time-varying gravity signals spanning 7 years. The resulting gravity residuals are well correlated with the gravity effect caused by the _ polar motion after correcting for atmospheric effects.

  14. Comparing reconstructed past variations and future projections of the Baltic Sea ecosystem—first results from multi-model ensemble simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meier, H E Markus; Andersson, Helén C; Arheimer, Berit; Donnelly, Chantal; Eilola, Kari; Höglund, Anders; Kuznetsov, Ivan; Blenckner, Thorsten; Gustafsson, Bo G; Müller-Karulis, Bärbel; Niiranen, Susa; Chubarenko, Boris; Hansson, Anders; Havenhand, Jonathan; MacKenzie, Brian R; Neumann, Thomas; Piwowarczyk, Joanna; Raudsepp, Urmas; Reckermann, Marcus; Ruoho-Airola, Tuija

    2012-01-01

    Multi-model ensemble simulations for the marine biogeochemistry and food web of the Baltic Sea were performed for the period 1850–2098, and projected changes in the future climate were compared with the past climate environment. For the past period 1850–2006, atmospheric, hydrological and nutrient forcings were reconstructed, based on historical measurements. For the future period 1961–2098, scenario simulations were driven by regionalized global general circulation model (GCM) data and forced by various future greenhouse gas emission and air- and riverborne nutrient load scenarios (ranging from a pessimistic ‘business-as-usual’ to the most optimistic case). To estimate uncertainties, different models for the various parts of the Earth system were applied. Assuming the IPCC greenhouse gas emission scenarios A1B or A2, we found that water temperatures at the end of this century may be higher and salinities and oxygen concentrations may be lower than ever measured since 1850. There is also a tendency of increased eutrophication in the future, depending on the nutrient load scenario. Although cod biomass is mainly controlled by fishing mortality, climate change together with eutrophication may result in a biomass decline during the latter part of this century, even when combined with lower fishing pressure. Despite considerable shortcomings of state-of-the-art models, this study suggests that the future Baltic Sea ecosystem may unprecedentedly change compared to the past 150 yr. As stakeholders today pay only little attention to adaptation and mitigation strategies, more information is needed to raise public awareness of the possible impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems. (letter)

  15. Ensemble Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Re, Matteo; Valentini, Giorgio

    2012-03-01

    Ensemble methods are statistical and computational learning procedures reminiscent of the human social learning behavior of seeking several opinions before making any crucial decision. The idea of combining the opinions of different "experts" to obtain an overall “ensemble” decision is rooted in our culture at least from the classical age of ancient Greece, and it has been formalized during the Enlightenment with the Condorcet Jury Theorem[45]), which proved that the judgment of a committee is superior to those of individuals, provided the individuals have reasonable competence. Ensembles are sets of learning machines that combine in some way their decisions, or their learning algorithms, or different views of data, or other specific characteristics to obtain more reliable and more accurate predictions in supervised and unsupervised learning problems [48,116]. A simple example is represented by the majority vote ensemble, by which the decisions of different learning machines are combined, and the class that receives the majority of “votes” (i.e., the class predicted by the majority of the learning machines) is the class predicted by the overall ensemble [158]. In the literature, a plethora of terms other than ensembles has been used, such as fusion, combination, aggregation, and committee, to indicate sets of learning machines that work together to solve a machine learning problem [19,40,56,66,99,108,123], but in this chapter we maintain the term ensemble in its widest meaning, in order to include the whole range of combination methods. Nowadays, ensemble methods represent one of the main current research lines in machine learning [48,116], and the interest of the research community on ensemble methods is witnessed by conferences and workshops specifically devoted to ensembles, first of all the multiple classifier systems (MCS) conference organized by Roli, Kittler, Windeatt, and other researchers of this area [14,62,85,149,173]. Several theories have been

  16. Novel Experimental Simulations of the Atmospheric Injection of Meteoric Metals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gómez Martín, J. C.; Bones, D. L.; Carrillo-Sánchez, J. D.; James, A. D.; Plane, J. M. C. [School of Chemistry, University of Leeds, Woodhouse Lane, Leeds LS2 9JT (United Kingdom); Trigo-Rodríguez, J. M. [Meteorites, Minor Bodies and Planetary Science Group, Institute of Space Sciences (CSIC-IEEC). Campus UAB, C/Can Magrans s/n, E-08193 Cerdanyola del Vallés (Barcelona) (Spain); Fegley, B. Jr., E-mail: J.M.C.Plane@leeds.ac.uk [Washington University, St. Louis, MO (United States)

    2017-02-20

    A newly developed laboratory, Meteoric Ablation Simulator (MASI), is used to test model predictions of the atmospheric ablation of interplanetary dust particles (IDPs) with experimental Na, Fe, and Ca vaporization profiles. MASI is the first laboratory setup capable of performing time-resolved atmospheric ablation simulations, by means of precision resistive heating and atomic laser-induced fluorescence detection. Experiments using meteoritic IDP analogues show that at least three mineral phases (Na-rich plagioclase, metal sulfide, and Mg-rich silicate) are required to explain the observed appearance temperatures of the vaporized elements. Low melting temperatures of Na-rich plagioclase and metal sulfide, compared to silicate grains, preclude equilibration of all the elemental constituents in a single melt. The phase-change process of distinct mineral components determines the way in which Na and Fe evaporate. Ca evaporation is dependent on particle size and on the initial composition of the molten silicate. Measured vaporized fractions of Na, Fe, and Ca as a function of particle size and speed confirm differential ablation (i.e., the most volatile elements such as Na ablate first, followed by the main constituents Fe, Mg, and Si, and finally the most refractory elements such as Ca). The Chemical Ablation Model (CABMOD) provides a reasonable approximation to this effect based on chemical fractionation of a molten silicate in thermodynamic equilibrium, even though the compositional and geometric description of IDPs is simplistic. Improvements in the model are required in order to better reproduce the specific shape of the elemental ablation profiles.

  17. Development of regional meteorological and atmospheric diffusion simulation system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kubota, Ryuji; Iwashige, Kengo; Kasano, Toshio

    2002-01-01

    Regional atmospheric diffusion online network (RADON) with atmospheric diffusion analysis code (ADAC) : a simulation program of diffusion of radioactive materials, volcanic ash, pollen, NOx and SOx was developed. This system can be executed in personal computer (PC) and note PC on Windows. Emission data consists of online, offline and default data. It uses the meteorology data sources such as meteorological forecasting mesh data, automated meteorological data acquisition system (AMeDAS) data, meteorological observation data in site and municipality observation data. The meteorological forecasting mesh data shows forecasting value of temperature, wind speed, wind direction and humidity in about two days. The nuclear environmental monitoring center retains the online data (meteorological data, emission source data, monitoring station data) in its PC server and can run forecasting or repeating calculation using these data and store and print out the calculation results. About 30 emission materials can be calculated simultaneously. This system can simulate a series of weather from the past and real time to the future. (S.Y.)

  18. Outcomes and challenges of global high-resolution non-hydrostatic atmospheric simulations using the K computer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satoh, Masaki; Tomita, Hirofumi; Yashiro, Hisashi; Kajikawa, Yoshiyuki; Miyamoto, Yoshiaki; Yamaura, Tsuyoshi; Miyakawa, Tomoki; Nakano, Masuo; Kodama, Chihiro; Noda, Akira T.; Nasuno, Tomoe; Yamada, Yohei; Fukutomi, Yoshiki

    2017-12-01

    This article reviews the major outcomes of a 5-year (2011-2016) project using the K computer to perform global numerical atmospheric simulations based on the non-hydrostatic icosahedral atmospheric model (NICAM). The K computer was made available to the public in September 2012 and was used as a primary resource for Japan's Strategic Programs for Innovative Research (SPIRE), an initiative to investigate five strategic research areas; the NICAM project fell under the research area of climate and weather simulation sciences. Combining NICAM with high-performance computing has created new opportunities in three areas of research: (1) higher resolution global simulations that produce more realistic representations of convective systems, (2) multi-member ensemble simulations that are able to perform extended-range forecasts 10-30 days in advance, and (3) multi-decadal simulations for climatology and variability. Before the K computer era, NICAM was used to demonstrate realistic simulations of intra-seasonal oscillations including the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), merely as a case study approach. Thanks to the big leap in computational performance of the K computer, we could greatly increase the number of cases of MJO events for numerical simulations, in addition to integrating time and horizontal resolution. We conclude that the high-resolution global non-hydrostatic model, as used in this five-year project, improves the ability to forecast intra-seasonal oscillations and associated tropical cyclogenesis compared with that of the relatively coarser operational models currently in use. The impacts of the sub-kilometer resolution simulation and the multi-decadal simulations using NICAM are also reviewed.

  19. An ensemble-based dynamic Bayesian averaging approach for discharge simulations using multiple global precipitation products and hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Wei; Liu, Junguo; Yang, Hong; Sweetapple, Chris

    2018-03-01

    Global precipitation products are very important datasets in flow simulations, especially in poorly gauged regions. Uncertainties resulting from precipitation products, hydrological models and their combinations vary with time and data magnitude, and undermine their application to flow simulations. However, previous studies have not quantified these uncertainties individually and explicitly. This study developed an ensemble-based dynamic Bayesian averaging approach (e-Bay) for deterministic discharge simulations using multiple global precipitation products and hydrological models. In this approach, the joint probability of precipitation products and hydrological models being correct is quantified based on uncertainties in maximum and mean estimation, posterior probability is quantified as functions of the magnitude and timing of discharges, and the law of total probability is implemented to calculate expected discharges. Six global fine-resolution precipitation products and two hydrological models of different complexities are included in an illustrative application. e-Bay can effectively quantify uncertainties and therefore generate better deterministic discharges than traditional approaches (weighted average methods with equal and varying weights and maximum likelihood approach). The mean Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values of e-Bay are up to 0.97 and 0.85 in training and validation periods respectively, which are at least 0.06 and 0.13 higher than traditional approaches. In addition, with increased training data, assessment criteria values of e-Bay show smaller fluctuations than traditional approaches and its performance becomes outstanding. The proposed e-Bay approach bridges the gap between global precipitation products and their pragmatic applications to discharge simulations, and is beneficial to water resources management in ungauged or poorly gauged regions across the world.

  20. Noble Gas Surface Flux Simulations And Atmospheric Transport

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carrigan, Charles R. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Sun, Yunwei [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Simpson, Matthew D. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2017-09-30

    Signatures from underground nuclear explosions or UNEs are strongly influenced by the containment regime surrounding them. The degree of gas leakage from the detonation cavity to the surface obviously affects the magnitude of surface fluxes of radioxenon that might be detected during the course of a Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty On-Site Inspection. In turn, the magnitude of surface fluxes will influence the downwind detectability of the radioxenon atmospheric signature from the event. Less obvious is the influence that leakage rates have on the evolution of radioxenon isotopes in the cavity or the downwind radioisotopic measurements that might be made. The objective of this letter report is to summarize our attempt to better understand how containment conditions affect both the detection and interpretation of radioxenon signatures obtained from sampling at the ground surface near an event as well as at greater distances in the atmosphere. In the discussion that follows, we make no attempt to consider other sources of radioactive noble gases such as natural backgrounds or atmospheric contamination and, for simplicity, only focus on detonation-produced radioxenon gases. Summarizing our simulations, they show that the decay of radioxenon isotopes (e.g., Xe-133, Xe-131m, Xe-133m and Xe-135) and their migration to the surface following a UNE means that the possibility of detecting these gases exists within a window of opportunity. In some cases, seeps or venting of detonation gases may allow significant quantities to reach the surface and be released into the atmosphere immediately following a UNE. In other release scenarios – the ones we consider here – hours to days may be required for gases to reach the surface at detectable levels. These release models are most likely more characteristic of “fully contained” events that lack prompt venting, but which still leak gas slowly across the surface for periods of months.

  1. Reaction Ensemble Molecular Dynamics: Direct Simulation of the Dynamic Equilibrium Properties of Chemically Reacting Mixtures

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Brennan, J.K.; Lísal, Martin; Gubbins, K.E.; Rice, B.M.

    2004-01-01

    Roč. 70, č. 6 (2004), 0611031-0611034 ISSN 1063-651X R&D Projects: GA ČR GA203/03/1588 Grant - others:NSF(US) CTS-0211792 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z4072921 Keywords : reacting systems * simulation * molecular dynamics Subject RIV: CF - Physical ; Theoretical Chemistry Impact factor: 2.352, year: 2004

  2. Laboratory simulation of atmospheric turbulence induced optical wavefront distortion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Travis Shane

    1999-11-01

    Many creative approaches have been taken in the past for simulating the effect that atmospheric turbulence has on optical beams. Most of the experimental architectures have been complicated and consisted of many optical elements as well as moving components. These techniques have shown a modicum of success; however, they are not completely controllable or predictable. A benchtop technique for experimentally producing one important effect that atmospheric turbulence has on optical beams (phase distortion) is presented here. The system is completely controllable and predictable while accurately representing the statistical nature of the problem. Previous experimentation in optical processing through turbulent media has demonstrated that optical wavefront distortions can be produced via spatial light modulating (SLM) devices, and most turbulence models and experimental results indicate that turbulence can be represented as a phase fluctuation. The amplitude distributions in the resulting far field are primarily due to propagation of the phase. Operating a liquid crystal television (LCTV) in the ``phase- mostly'' mode, a phase fluctuation type model for turbulence is utilized in the present investigation, and a real-time experiment for demonstrating the effects was constructed. For an optical system to simulate optical wavefront distortions due to atmospheric turbulence, the following are required: (1)An optical element that modulates the phasefront of an optical beam (2)A model and a technique for generating spatially correlated turbulence simulating distributions (3)Hardware and software for displaying and manipulating the information addressing the optical phase modulation device The LCTV is ideal for this application. When operated in the ``phase-mostly'' mode some LCTVs can modulate the phasefront of an optical beam by as much as 2π and an algorithm for generating spatially correlated phase screens can be constructed via mathematical modeling software such as

  3. NYYD Ensemble

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    2002-01-01

    NYYD Ensemble'i duost Traksmann - Lukk E.-S. Tüüri teosega "Symbiosis", mis on salvestatud ka hiljuti ilmunud NYYD Ensemble'i CDle. 2. märtsil Rakvere Teatri väikeses saalis ja 3. märtsil Rotermanni Soolalaos, kavas Tüür, Kaumann, Berio, Reich, Yun, Hauta-aho, Buckinx

  4. Estimating the sensitivity of a regional atmospheric model to a sea state dependent roughness using ensemble calculations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weisse, R.; Heyen, H.; Storch, H. von [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Hydrophysik

    1999-07-01

    The sensitivity of an atmospheric high resolution limited area model to a sea state dependent roughness is examined. Two sets of Monte Carlo experiments are compared with each other, one set with a sea state dependent roughness, the other with a roughness parameterized by the standard Charnock relation. From the climatic point of view, i.e., on time scales of months and longer, the differences of mean and standard deviation between the two sets are small and exceed, for instance in winter, where the differences are largest, rarely 0.4 hPa. From the forecasters' point of view, i.e., locally and on a daily time scale, differences of several hPa may occur, but generally differences are smaller than 1 hPa, too. It is concluded that on longer time scales the Charnock relation is a reasonable parameterization in global and regional atmospheric climate models. It is illustrated, too, that the comparison of single realizations, a common practice in regional sensitivity studies, can be misleading. Large differences were found between individual realizations, suggesting a considerable impact of the sea state dependent roughness on the atmosphere. However, it is shown that these differences are to a large fraction caused by internal variability of the atmospheric model itself. (orig.) [German] Die Sensitivitaet eines atmosphaerischen Regionalmodells bezueglich einer seegangsabhaengigen Rauhigkeit wird mittels Ensemblerechnungen untersucht. Dazu werden eine Reihe von Monte-Carlo-Experimenten mit und ohne seegangsabhaengige Rauhigkeit verglichen. Im letzten Fall wird die Charnock-Relation zur Bestimmung der Rauhigkeit verwendet. Auf Zeitskalen von Monaten und laenger sind die Unterschiede zwischen den Experimenten mit und denen ohne seegangsabhaengige Rauhigkeit gering. Auf der lokalen und der taeglichen Skala koennen jedoch Unterschiede von einigen hPa im Bodenluftdruckfeld auftreten. Es wird gezeigt, dass diese Unterschiede jedoch weniger eine Reaktion des

  5. Impacts of using an ensemble Kalman filter on air quality simulations along the California-Mexico border region during Cal-Mex 2010 field campaign.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bei, Naifang; Li, Guohui; Meng, Zhiyong; Weng, Yonghui; Zavala, Miguel; Molina, L T

    2014-11-15

    The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) on air quality simulations in the California-Mexico border region on two days (May 30 and June 04, 2010) during Cal-Mex 2010. The uncertainties in ozone (O3) and aerosol simulations in the border area due to the meteorological initial uncertainties were examined through ensemble simulations. The ensemble spread of surface O3 averaged over the coastal region was less than 10ppb. The spreads in the nitrate and ammonium aerosols are substantial on both days, mostly caused by the large uncertainties in the surface temperature and humidity simulations. In general, the forecast initialized with the EnKF analysis (EnKF) improved the simulation of meteorological fields to some degree in the border region compared to the reference forecast initialized with NCEP analysis data (FCST) and the simulation with observation nudging (FDDA), which in turn leading to reasonable air quality simulations. The simulated surface O3 distributions by EnKF were consistently better than FCST and FDDA on both days. EnKF usually produced more reasonable simulations of nitrate and ammonium aerosols compared to the observations, but still have difficulties in improving the simulations of organic and sulfate aerosols. However, discrepancies between the EnKF simulations and the measurements were still considerably large, particularly for sulfate and organic aerosols, indicating that there are still ample rooms for improvement in the present data assimilation and/or the modeling systems. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. CFD simulation of neutral ABL flows; Atmospheric Boundary Layer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xiaodong Zhang

    2009-04-15

    This work is to evaluate the CFD prediction of Atmospheric Boundary Layer flow field over different terrains employing Fluent 6.3 software. How accurate the simulation could achieve depend on following aspects: viscous model, wall functions, agreement of CFD model with inlet wind velocity profile and top boundary condition. Fluent employ wall function roughness modifications based on data from experiments with sand grain roughened pipes and channels, describe wall adjacent zone with Roughness Height (Ks) instead of Roughness Length (z{sub 0}). In a CFD simulation of ABL flow, the mean wind velocity profile is generally described with either a logarithmic equation by the presence of aerodynamic roughness length z{sub 0} or an exponential equation by the presence of exponent. As indicated by some former researchers, the disagreement between wall function model and ABL velocity profile description will result in some undesirable gradient along flow direction. There are some methods to improve the simulation model in literatures, some of them are discussed in this report, but none of those remedial methods are perfect to eliminate the streamwise gradients in mean wind speed and turbulence, as EllipSys3D could do. In this paper, a new near wall treatment function is designed, which, in some degree, can correct the horizontal gradients problem. Based on the corrected model constants and near wall treatment function, a simulation of Askervein Hill is carried out. The wind condition is neutrally stratified ABL and the measurements are best documented until now. Comparison with measured data shows that the CFD model can well predict the velocity field and relative turbulence kinetic energy field. Furthermore, a series of artificial complex terrains are designed, and some of the main simulation results are reported. (au)

  7. Appearance of deterministic mixing behavior from ensembles of fluctuating hydrodynamics simulations of the Richtmyer-Meshkov instability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narayanan, Kiran; Samtaney, Ravi

    2018-04-01

    We obtain numerical solutions of the two-fluid fluctuating compressible Navier-Stokes (FCNS) equations, which consistently account for thermal fluctuations from meso- to macroscales, in order to study the effect of such fluctuations on the mixing behavior in the Richtmyer-Meshkov instability (RMI). The numerical method used was successfully verified in two stages: for the deterministic fluxes by comparison against air-SF6 RMI experiment, and for the stochastic terms by comparison against the direct simulation Monte Carlo results for He-Ar RMI. We present results from fluctuating hydrodynamic RMI simulations for three He-Ar systems having length scales with decreasing order of magnitude that span from macroscopic to mesoscopic, with different levels of thermal fluctuations characterized by a nondimensional Boltzmann number (Bo). For a multidimensional FCNS system on a regular Cartesian grid, when using a discretization of a space-time stochastic flux Z (x ,t ) of the form Z (x ,t ) →1 /√{h ▵ t }N (i h ,n Δ t ) for spatial interval h , time interval Δ t , h , and Gaussian noise N should be greater than h0, with h0 corresponding to a cell volume that contains a sufficient number of molecules of the fluid such that the fluctuations are physically meaningful and produce the right equilibrium spectrum. For the mesoscale RMI systems simulated, it was desirable to use a cell size smaller than this limit in order to resolve the viscous shock. This was achieved by using a modified regularization of the noise term via Z (h3,h03)>x ,t →1 /√ ▵ t max(i h ,n Δ t ) , with h0=ξ h ∀h mixing behavior emerges as the ensemble-averaged behavior of several fluctuating instances, whereas when Bo≈1 , a deviation from deterministic behavior is observed. For all cases, the FCNS solution provides bounds on the growth rate of the amplitude of the mixing layer.

  8. Global simulation of aromatic volatile organic compounds in the atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cabrera Perez, David; Taraborrelli, Domenico; Pozzer, Andrea

    2015-04-01

    Among the large number of chemical compounds in the atmosphere, the organic group plays a key role in the tropospheric chemistry. Specifically the subgroup called aromatics is of great interest. Aromatics are the predominant trace gases in urban areas due to high emissions, primarily by vehicle exhausts and fuel evaporation. They are also present in areas where biofuel is used (i.e residential wood burning). Emissions of aromatic compounds are a substantial fraction of the total emissions of the volatile organic compounds (VOC). Impact of aromatics on human health is very important, as they do not only contribute to the ozone formation in the urban environment, but they are also highly toxic themselves, especially in the case of benzene which is able to trigger a range of illness under long exposure, and of nitro-phenols which cause detrimental for humans and vegetation even at very low concentrations. The aim of this work is to assess the atmospheric impacts of aromatic compounds on the global scale. The main goals are: lifetime and budget estimation, mixing ratios distribution, net effect on ozone production and OH loss for the most emitted aromatic compounds (benzene, toluene, xylenes, ethylbenzene, styrene and trimethylbenzenes). For this purpose, we use the numerical chemistry and climate simulation ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model to build the global atmospheric budget for the most emitted and predominant aromatic compounds in the atmosphere. A set of emissions was prepared in order to include biomass burning, vegetation and anthropogenic sources of aromatics into the model. A chemical mechanism based on the Master Chemical Mechanism (MCM) was developed to describe the chemical oxidation in the gas phase of these aromatic compounds. MCM have been reduced in terms of number of chemical equation and species in order to make it affordable in a 3D model. Additionally other features have been added, for instance the production of HONO via ortho

  9. Simulation of Chemical Reaction Equilibria by the Reaction Ensemble Monte Carlo Method:

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Turner, C.H.; Brennan, J.K.; Lísal, Martin; Smith, W.R.; Johnson, J. K.; Gubbins, K.E.

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 34, č. 2 (2008), s. 119-146 ISSN 0892-7022 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR KAN400720701; GA ČR GA203/05/0725; GA AV ČR IAA400720710; GA AV ČR 1ET400720507 Grant - others:NRCC(CA) OGP1041 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z40720504 Keywords : simulation * review * reaction equilibria Subject RIV: CF - Physical ; Theoretical Chemistry Impact factor: 1.325, year: 2008

  10. Quantifying Changes in Future Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves Using Multimodel Ensemble Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ragno, Elisa; AghaKouchak, Amir; Love, Charlotte A.; Cheng, Linyin; Vahedifard, Farshid; Lima, Carlos H. R.

    2018-03-01

    During the last century, we have observed a warming climate with more intense precipitation extremes in some regions, likely due to increases in the atmosphere's water holding capacity. Traditionally, infrastructure design and rainfall-triggered landslide models rely on the notion of stationarity, which assumes that the statistics of extremes do not change significantly over time. However, in a warming climate, infrastructures and natural slopes will likely face more severe climatic conditions, with potential human and socioeconomical consequences. Here we outline a framework for quantifying climate change impacts based on the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall events using bias corrected historical and multimodel projected precipitation extremes. The approach evaluates changes in rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves and their uncertainty bounds using a nonstationary model based on Bayesian inference. We show that highly populated areas across the United States may experience extreme precipitation events up to 20% more intense and twice as frequent, relative to historical records, despite the expectation of unchanged annual mean precipitation. Since IDF curves are widely used for infrastructure design and risk assessment, the proposed framework offers an avenue for assessing resilience of infrastructure and landslide hazard in a warming climate.

  11. Simulating the 3-D Structure of Titan's Upper Atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, J. M.; Waite, H.; Westlake, J.; Magee, B.

    2009-05-01

    We present results from the 3-D Titan Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere Model (Bell et al [2009], PSS, in review). We show comparisons between simulated N2, CH4, and H2 density fields and the in-situ data from the Cassini Ion Neutral Mass Spectrometer (INMS). We describe the temperature and wind fields consistent with these density calculations. Variations with local time, longitude, and latitude will be addressed. Potential plasma heating sources can be estimated using the 1-D model of De La Haye et al [2007, 2008] and the impacts on the thermosphere of Titan can be assessed in a global sense in Titan-GITM. Lastly, we will place these findings within the context of recent work in modeling the 2-D structure of Titan's upper atmosphere (Mueller-Wodarg et al [2008]).

  12. Filter Media Tests Under Simulated Martian Atmospheric Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agui, Juan H.

    2016-01-01

    Human exploration of Mars will require the optimal utilization of planetary resources. One of its abundant resources is the Martian atmosphere that can be harvested through filtration and chemical processes that purify and separate it into its gaseous and elemental constituents. Effective filtration needs to be part of the suite of resource utilization technologies. A unique testing platform is being used which provides the relevant operational and instrumental capabilities to test articles under the proper simulated Martian conditions. A series of tests were conducted to assess the performance of filter media. Light sheet imaging of the particle flow provided a means of detecting and quantifying particle concentrations to determine capturing efficiencies. The media's efficiency was also evaluated by gravimetric means through a by-layer filter media configuration. These tests will help to establish techniques and methods for measuring capturing efficiency and arrestance of conventional fibrous filter media. This paper will describe initial test results on different filter media.

  13. Multiscale eddy simulation for moist atmospheric convection: Preliminary investigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stechmann, Samuel N., E-mail: stechmann@wisc.edu [Department of Mathematics, University of Wisconsin-Madison (United States); Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison (United States)

    2014-08-15

    A multiscale computational framework is designed for simulating atmospheric convection and clouds. In this multiscale framework, large eddy simulation (LES) is used to model the coarse scales of 100 m and larger, and a stochastic, one-dimensional turbulence (ODT) model is used to represent the fine scales of 100 m and smaller. Coupled and evolving together, these two components provide a multiscale eddy simulation (MES). Through its fine-scale turbulence and moist thermodynamics, MES allows coarse grid cells to be partially cloudy and to encompass cloudy–clear air mixing on scales down to 1 m; in contrast, in typical LES such fine-scale processes are not represented or are parameterized using bulk deterministic closures. To illustrate MES and investigate its multiscale dynamics, a shallow cumulus cloud field is simulated. The fine-scale variability is seen to take a plausible form, with partially cloudy grid cells prominent near cloud edges and cloud top. From earlier theoretical work, this mixing of cloudy and clear air is believed to have an important impact on buoyancy. However, contrary to expectations based on earlier theoretical studies, the mean statistics of the bulk cloud field are essentially the same in MES and LES; possible reasons for this are discussed, including possible limitations in the present formulation of MES. One difference between LES and MES is seen in the coarse-scale turbulent kinetic energy, which appears to grow slowly in time due to incoherent stochastic fluctuations in the buoyancy. This and other considerations suggest the need for some type of spatial and/or temporal filtering to attenuate undersampling of the stochastic fine-scale processes.

  14. Multiscale eddy simulation for moist atmospheric convection: Preliminary investigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stechmann, Samuel N.

    2014-01-01

    A multiscale computational framework is designed for simulating atmospheric convection and clouds. In this multiscale framework, large eddy simulation (LES) is used to model the coarse scales of 100 m and larger, and a stochastic, one-dimensional turbulence (ODT) model is used to represent the fine scales of 100 m and smaller. Coupled and evolving together, these two components provide a multiscale eddy simulation (MES). Through its fine-scale turbulence and moist thermodynamics, MES allows coarse grid cells to be partially cloudy and to encompass cloudy–clear air mixing on scales down to 1 m; in contrast, in typical LES such fine-scale processes are not represented or are parameterized using bulk deterministic closures. To illustrate MES and investigate its multiscale dynamics, a shallow cumulus cloud field is simulated. The fine-scale variability is seen to take a plausible form, with partially cloudy grid cells prominent near cloud edges and cloud top. From earlier theoretical work, this mixing of cloudy and clear air is believed to have an important impact on buoyancy. However, contrary to expectations based on earlier theoretical studies, the mean statistics of the bulk cloud field are essentially the same in MES and LES; possible reasons for this are discussed, including possible limitations in the present formulation of MES. One difference between LES and MES is seen in the coarse-scale turbulent kinetic energy, which appears to grow slowly in time due to incoherent stochastic fluctuations in the buoyancy. This and other considerations suggest the need for some type of spatial and/or temporal filtering to attenuate undersampling of the stochastic fine-scale processes

  15. Precipitation intensity-duration-frequency curves for central Belgium with an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX simulations, and associated uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosseinzadehtalaei, Parisa; Tabari, Hossein; Willems, Patrick

    2018-02-01

    An ensemble of 88 regional climate model (RCM) simulations at 0.11° and 0.44° spatial resolutions from the EURO-CORDEX project is analyzed for central Belgium to investigate the projected impact of climate change on precipitation intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relationships and extreme precipitation quantiles typically used in water engineering designs. The rate of uncertainty arising from the choice of RCM, driving GCM, and radiative concentration pathway (RCP4.5 & RCP8.5) is quantified using a variance decomposition technique after reconstruction of missing data in GCM × RCM combinations. A comparative analysis between the historical simulations of the EURO-CORDEX 0.11° and 0.44° RCMs shows higher precipitation intensities by the finer resolution runs, leading to a larger overestimation of the observations-based IDFs by the 0.11° runs. The results reveal that making a temporal stationarity assumption for the climate system may lead to underestimation of precipitation quantiles up to 70% by the end of this century. This projected increase is generally larger for the 0.11° RCMs compared with the 0.44° RCMs. The relative changes in extreme precipitation do depend on return period and duration, indicating an amplification for larger return periods and for smaller durations. The variance decomposition approach generally identifies RCM as the most dominant component of uncertainty in changes of more extreme precipitation (return period of 10 years) for both 0.11° and 0.44° resolutions, followed by GCM and RCP scenario. The uncertainties associated with cross-contributions of RCMs, GCMs, and RCPs play a non-negligible role in the associated uncertainties of the changes.

  16. Describing the direct and indirect radiative effects of atmospheric aerosols over Europe by using coupled meteorology-chemistry simulations: a contribution from the AQMEII-Phase II exercise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jimenez-Guerrero, Pedro; Balzarini, Alessandra; Baró, Rocío; Curci, Gabriele; Forkel, Renate; Hirtl, Marcus; Honzak, Luka; Langer, Matthias; Pérez, Juan L.; Pirovano, Guido; San José, Roberto; Tuccella, Paolo; Werhahn, Johannes; Zabkar, Rahela

    2014-05-01

    The study of the response of the aerosol levels in the atmosphere to a changing climate and how this affects the radiative budget of the Earth (direct, semi-direct and indirect effects) is an essential topic to build confidence on climate science, since these feedbacks involve the largest uncertainties nowadays. Air quality-climate interactions (AQCI) are, therefore, a key, but uncertain contributor to the anthropogenic forcing that remains poorly understood. To build confidence in the AQCI studies, regional-scale integrated meteorology-atmospheric chemistry models (i.e., models with on-line chemistry) that include detailed treatment of aerosol life cycle and aerosol impacts on radiation (direct effects) and clouds (indirect effects) are in demand. In this context, the main objective of this contribution is the study and definition of the uncertainties in the climate-chemistry-aerosol-cloud-radiation system associated to the direct radiative forcing and the indirect effect caused by aerosols over Europe, using an ensemble of fully-coupled meteorology-chemistry model simulations with the WRF-Chem model run under the umbrella of AQMEII-Phase 2 international initiative. Simulations were performed for Europe for the entire year 2010. According to the common simulation strategy, the year was simulated as a sequence of 2-day time slices. For better comparability, the seven groups applied the same grid spacing of 23 km and shared common processing of initial and boundary conditions as well as anthropogenic and fire emissions. With exception of a simulation with different cloud microphysics, identical physics options were chosen while the chemistry options were varied. Two model set-ups will be considered here: one sub-ensemble of simulations not taking into account any aerosol feedbacks (the baseline case) and another sub-ensemble of simulations which differs from the former by the inclusion of aerosol-radiation feedback. The existing differences for meteorological

  17. Atmospheric Retrievals from Exoplanet Observations and Simulations with BART

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrington, Joseph

    the planet has uniform composition and the same temperature profile everywhere. We do not know this assumption's impact. While Spitzer and HST have few exoplanet observing modes, JWST will have over 20. Given the signal challenges and the complexity of retrieval, modeling the observations and data analysis is the best way to optimize an observing plan. Our project solves all of these problems. Using only open-source codes, with tools available to the community for their immediate application in JWST and HST proposals and analyses, we will produce a faithful simulator of 2D spectral and photometric frames from each JWST exoplanet mode (WFC3 spatial scan mode works already), including jitter and intrapixel effects. We will extract and calibrate data, analyzing them with BART. Given planetary input spectra for terrestrial, super-Earth, Neptune, and Jupiterclass planets, and a variety of stellar spectra, we will determine the best combination of observations to recover each atmosphere, and the limits where low SNR or spectral coverage produce deceptive results. To facilitate these analyses, we will adapt an existing cloud model to BART, add condensate code now being written to its thermochemical model, include scattering, add a 3D atmosphere module (for dayside occultation mapping and the 1D vs. 3D question), and improve performance and documentation, among other improvements. We will host a web site and community discussions online and at conferences about retrieval issues. We will develop validation tests for radiative-transfer and BART-style retrieval codes, and provide examples to validate others' codes. We will engage the retrieval community in data challenges. We will provide web-enabled tools to specify planets easily for modeling. We will make all of these tools, tests, and comparisons available online so everyone can use them to maximize NASA's investment in high-end observing capabilities to characterize exoplanets.

  18. Ensembl 2004.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birney, E; Andrews, D; Bevan, P; Caccamo, M; Cameron, G; Chen, Y; Clarke, L; Coates, G; Cox, T; Cuff, J; Curwen, V; Cutts, T; Down, T; Durbin, R; Eyras, E; Fernandez-Suarez, X M; Gane, P; Gibbins, B; Gilbert, J; Hammond, M; Hotz, H; Iyer, V; Kahari, A; Jekosch, K; Kasprzyk, A; Keefe, D; Keenan, S; Lehvaslaiho, H; McVicker, G; Melsopp, C; Meidl, P; Mongin, E; Pettett, R; Potter, S; Proctor, G; Rae, M; Searle, S; Slater, G; Smedley, D; Smith, J; Spooner, W; Stabenau, A; Stalker, J; Storey, R; Ureta-Vidal, A; Woodwark, C; Clamp, M; Hubbard, T

    2004-01-01

    The Ensembl (http://www.ensembl.org/) database project provides a bioinformatics framework to organize biology around the sequences of large genomes. It is a comprehensive and integrated source of annotation of large genome sequences, available via interactive website, web services or flat files. As well as being one of the leading sources of genome annotation, Ensembl is an open source software engineering project to develop a portable system able to handle very large genomes and associated requirements. The facilities of the system range from sequence analysis to data storage and visualization and installations exist around the world both in companies and at academic sites. With a total of nine genome sequences available from Ensembl and more genomes to follow, recent developments have focused mainly on closer integration between genomes and external data.

  19. Appearance of deterministic mixing behavior from ensembles of fluctuating hydrodynamics simulations of the Richtmyer-Meshkov instability

    KAUST Repository

    Narayanan, Kiran

    2018-04-19

    We obtain numerical solutions of the two-fluid fluctuating compressible Navier-Stokes (FCNS) equations, which consistently account for thermal fluctuations from meso- to macroscales, in order to study the effect of such fluctuations on the mixing behavior in the Richtmyer-Meshkov instability (RMI). The numerical method used was successfully verified in two stages: for the deterministic fluxes by comparison against air-SF6 RMI experiment, and for the stochastic terms by comparison against the direct simulation Monte Carlo results for He-Ar RMI. We present results from fluctuating hydrodynamic RMI simulations for three He-Ar systems having length scales with decreasing order of magnitude that span from macroscopic to mesoscopic, with different levels of thermal fluctuations characterized by a nondimensional Boltzmann number (Bo). For a multidimensional FCNS system on a regular Cartesian grid, when using a discretization of a space-time stochastic flux Z(x,t) of the form Z(x,t)→1/-tN(ih,nΔt) for spatial interval h, time interval Δt, h, and Gaussian noise N should be greater than h0, with h0 corresponding to a cell volume that contains a sufficient number of molecules of the fluid such that the fluctuations are physically meaningful and produce the right equilibrium spectrum. For the mesoscale RMI systems simulated, it was desirable to use a cell size smaller than this limit in order to resolve the viscous shock. This was achieved by using a modified regularization of the noise term via Zx,t→1/-tmaxh3,h03Nih,nΔt, with h0=ξhsimulations show that for systems with Bo1 deterministic mixing behavior emerges as the ensemble-averaged behavior of several fluctuating instances, whereas when Bo≈1, a deviation from deterministic behavior is observed. For all cases, the FCNS solution provides bounds on the growth rate of the amplitude of the mixing layer.

  20. Appearance of deterministic mixing behavior from ensembles of fluctuating hydrodynamics simulations of the Richtmyer-Meshkov instability

    KAUST Repository

    Narayanan, Kiran; Samtaney, Ravi

    2018-01-01

    We obtain numerical solutions of the two-fluid fluctuating compressible Navier-Stokes (FCNS) equations, which consistently account for thermal fluctuations from meso- to macroscales, in order to study the effect of such fluctuations on the mixing behavior in the Richtmyer-Meshkov instability (RMI). The numerical method used was successfully verified in two stages: for the deterministic fluxes by comparison against air-SF6 RMI experiment, and for the stochastic terms by comparison against the direct simulation Monte Carlo results for He-Ar RMI. We present results from fluctuating hydrodynamic RMI simulations for three He-Ar systems having length scales with decreasing order of magnitude that span from macroscopic to mesoscopic, with different levels of thermal fluctuations characterized by a nondimensional Boltzmann number (Bo). For a multidimensional FCNS system on a regular Cartesian grid, when using a discretization of a space-time stochastic flux Z(x,t) of the form Z(x,t)→1/-tN(ih,nΔt) for spatial interval h, time interval Δt, h, and Gaussian noise N should be greater than h0, with h0 corresponding to a cell volume that contains a sufficient number of molecules of the fluid such that the fluctuations are physically meaningful and produce the right equilibrium spectrum. For the mesoscale RMI systems simulated, it was desirable to use a cell size smaller than this limit in order to resolve the viscous shock. This was achieved by using a modified regularization of the noise term via Zx,t→1/-tmaxh3,h03Nih,nΔt, with h0=ξhsimulations show that for systems with Bo1 deterministic mixing behavior emerges as the ensemble-averaged behavior of several fluctuating instances, whereas when Bo≈1, a deviation from deterministic behavior is observed. For all cases, the FCNS solution provides bounds on the growth rate of the amplitude of the mixing layer.

  1. Ensembl 2017

    OpenAIRE

    Aken, Bronwen L.; Achuthan, Premanand; Akanni, Wasiu; Amode, M. Ridwan; Bernsdorff, Friederike; Bhai, Jyothish; Billis, Konstantinos; Carvalho-Silva, Denise; Cummins, Carla; Clapham, Peter; Gil, Laurent; Gir?n, Carlos Garc?a; Gordon, Leo; Hourlier, Thibaut; Hunt, Sarah E.

    2016-01-01

    Ensembl (www.ensembl.org) is a database and genome browser for enabling research on vertebrate genomes. We import, analyse, curate and integrate a diverse collection of large-scale reference data to create a more comprehensive view of genome biology than would be possible from any individual dataset. Our extensive data resources include evidence-based gene and regulatory region annotation, genome variation and gene trees. An accompanying suite of tools, infrastructure and programmatic access ...

  2. Ensemble Sampling

    OpenAIRE

    Lu, Xiuyuan; Van Roy, Benjamin

    2017-01-01

    Thompson sampling has emerged as an effective heuristic for a broad range of online decision problems. In its basic form, the algorithm requires computing and sampling from a posterior distribution over models, which is tractable only for simple special cases. This paper develops ensemble sampling, which aims to approximate Thompson sampling while maintaining tractability even in the face of complex models such as neural networks. Ensemble sampling dramatically expands on the range of applica...

  3. Simulation of Martian surface-atmosphere interaction in a space-simulator: Technical considerations and feasibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moehlmann, D.; Kochan, H.

    1992-01-01

    The Space Simulator of the German Aerospace Research Establishment at Cologne, formerly used for testing satellites, is now, since 1987, the central unit within the research sub-program 'Comet-Simulation' (KOSI). The KOSI team has investigated physical processes relevant to comets and their surfaces. As a byproduct we gained experience in sample-handling under simulated space conditions. In broadening the scope of the research activities of the DLR Institute of Space Simulation an extension to 'Laboratory-Planetology' is planned. Following the KOSI-experiments a Mars Surface-Simulation with realistic minerals and surface soil in a suited environment (temperature, pressure, and CO2-atmosphere) is foreseen as the next step. Here, our main interest is centered on thermophysical properties of the Martian surface and energy transport (and related gas transport) through the surface. These laboratory simulation activities can be related to space missions as typical pre-mission and during-the-mission support of the experiments design and operations (simulation in parallel). Post mission experiments for confirmation and interpretation of results are of great value. The physical dimensions of the Space Simulator (cylinder of about 2.5 m diameter and 5 m length) allows for testing and qualification of experimental hardware under realistic Martian conditions.

  4. Weather regimes in past climate atmospheric general circulation model simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kageyama, M.; Ramstein, G. [CEA Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Lab. des Sci. du Climat et de l' Environnement; D' Andrea, F.; Vautard, R. [Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Ecole Normale Superieure, Paris (France); Valdes, P.J. [Department of Meteorology, University of Reading (United Kingdom)

    1999-10-01

    We investigate the climates of the present-day, inception of the last glaciation (115000 y ago) and last glacial maximum (21000 y ago) in the extratropical north Atlantic and Europe, as simulated by the laboratoire de Meteorologie dynamique atmospheric general circulation model. We use these simulations to investigate the low-frequency variability of the model in different climates. The aim is to evaluate whether changes in the intraseasonal variability, which we characterize using weather regimes, can help describe the impact of different boundary conditions on climate and give a better understanding of climate change processes. Weather regimes are defined as the most recurrent patterns in the 500 hPa geopotential height, using a clustering algorithm method. The regimes found in the climate simulations of the present-day and inception of the last glaciation are similar in their number and their structure. It is the regimes' populations which are found to be different for these climates, with an increase of the model's blocked regime and a decrease in the zonal regime at the inception of the last glaciation. This description reinforces the conclusions from a study of the differences between the climatological averages of the different runs and confirms the northeastward shift to the tail of the Atlantic storm-track, which would favour more precipitation over the site of growth of the Fennoscandian ice-sheet. On the other hand, the last glacial maximum results over this sector are not found to be classifiable, showing that the change in boundary conditions can be responsible for severe changes in the weather regime and low-frequency dynamics. The LGM Atlantic low-frequency variability appears to be dominated by a large-scale retrogressing wave with a period 40 to 50 days. (orig.)

  5. Ensemble urban flood simulation in comparison with laboratory-scale experiments: Impact of interaction models for manhole, sewer pipe, and surface flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noh, Seong Jin; Lee, Seungsoo; An, Hyunuk; Kawaike, Kenji; Nakagawa, Hajime

    2016-11-01

    An urban flood is an integrated phenomenon that is affected by various uncertainty sources such as input forcing, model parameters, complex geometry, and exchanges of flow among different domains in surfaces and subsurfaces. Despite considerable advances in urban flood modeling techniques, limited knowledge is currently available with regard to the impact of dynamic interaction among different flow domains on urban floods. In this paper, an ensemble method for urban flood modeling is presented to consider the parameter uncertainty of interaction models among a manhole, a sewer pipe, and surface flow. Laboratory-scale experiments on urban flood and inundation are performed under various flow conditions to investigate the parameter uncertainty of interaction models. The results show that ensemble simulation using interaction models based on weir and orifice formulas reproduces experimental data with high accuracy and detects the identifiability of model parameters. Among interaction-related parameters, the parameters of the sewer-manhole interaction show lower uncertainty than those of the sewer-surface interaction. Experimental data obtained under unsteady-state conditions are more informative than those obtained under steady-state conditions to assess the parameter uncertainty of interaction models. Although the optimal parameters vary according to the flow conditions, the difference is marginal. Simulation results also confirm the capability of the interaction models and the potential of the ensemble-based approaches to facilitate urban flood simulation.

  6. Accelerating Monte Carlo molecular simulations by reweighting and reconstructing Markov chains: Extrapolation of canonical ensemble averages and second derivatives to different temperature and density conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kadoura, Ahmad; Sun, Shuyu, E-mail: shuyu.sun@kaust.edu.sa; Salama, Amgad

    2014-08-01

    Accurate determination of thermodynamic properties of petroleum reservoir fluids is of great interest to many applications, especially in petroleum engineering and chemical engineering. Molecular simulation has many appealing features, especially its requirement of fewer tuned parameters but yet better predicting capability; however it is well known that molecular simulation is very CPU expensive, as compared to equation of state approaches. We have recently introduced an efficient thermodynamically consistent technique to regenerate rapidly Monte Carlo Markov Chains (MCMCs) at different thermodynamic conditions from the existing data points that have been pre-computed with expensive classical simulation. This technique can speed up the simulation more than a million times, making the regenerated molecular simulation almost as fast as equation of state approaches. In this paper, this technique is first briefly reviewed and then numerically investigated in its capability of predicting ensemble averages of primary quantities at different neighboring thermodynamic conditions to the original simulated MCMCs. Moreover, this extrapolation technique is extended to predict second derivative properties (e.g. heat capacity and fluid compressibility). The method works by reweighting and reconstructing generated MCMCs in canonical ensemble for Lennard-Jones particles. In this paper, system's potential energy, pressure, isochoric heat capacity and isothermal compressibility along isochors, isotherms and paths of changing temperature and density from the original simulated points were extrapolated. Finally, an optimized set of Lennard-Jones parameters (ε, σ) for single site models were proposed for methane, nitrogen and carbon monoxide.

  7. Accelerating Monte Carlo molecular simulations by reweighting and reconstructing Markov chains: Extrapolation of canonical ensemble averages and second derivatives to different temperature and density conditions

    KAUST Repository

    Kadoura, Ahmad Salim

    2014-08-01

    Accurate determination of thermodynamic properties of petroleum reservoir fluids is of great interest to many applications, especially in petroleum engineering and chemical engineering. Molecular simulation has many appealing features, especially its requirement of fewer tuned parameters but yet better predicting capability; however it is well known that molecular simulation is very CPU expensive, as compared to equation of state approaches. We have recently introduced an efficient thermodynamically consistent technique to regenerate rapidly Monte Carlo Markov Chains (MCMCs) at different thermodynamic conditions from the existing data points that have been pre-computed with expensive classical simulation. This technique can speed up the simulation more than a million times, making the regenerated molecular simulation almost as fast as equation of state approaches. In this paper, this technique is first briefly reviewed and then numerically investigated in its capability of predicting ensemble averages of primary quantities at different neighboring thermodynamic conditions to the original simulated MCMCs. Moreover, this extrapolation technique is extended to predict second derivative properties (e.g. heat capacity and fluid compressibility). The method works by reweighting and reconstructing generated MCMCs in canonical ensemble for Lennard-Jones particles. In this paper, system\\'s potential energy, pressure, isochoric heat capacity and isothermal compressibility along isochors, isotherms and paths of changing temperature and density from the original simulated points were extrapolated. Finally, an optimized set of Lennard-Jones parameters (ε, σ) for single site models were proposed for methane, nitrogen and carbon monoxide. © 2014 Elsevier Inc.

  8. A comparative study of accelerated tests to simulate atmospheric corrosion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Assis, Sergio Luiz de

    2000-01-01

    In this study, specimens coated with five organic coating systems were exposed to accelerated tests for periods up to 2000 hours, and also to weathering for two years and six months. The accelerated tests consisted of the salt spray test, according to ASTM B-117; Prohesion (ASTM G 85-98 annex 5A); Prohesion combined with cyclic exposure to UV-A radiation and condensation; 'Prohchuva' a test described by ASTM G 85-98 using a salt spray with composition that simulated the acid rain of Sao Paulo, but one thousand times more concentrated, and 'Prohchuva' combined with cyclic exposure to UV-A radiation and condensation. The coated specimens were exposed with and without incision to expose the substrate. The onset and progress of corrosion at and of the exposed metallic surface, besides coating degradation, were followed by visual observation, and photographs were taken. The coating systems were classified according to the extent of corrosion protection given to the substrate, using a method based on ASTM standards D-610, D-714, D-1654 and D-3359. The rankings of the coatings obtained from accelerated tests and weathering were compared and contrasted with classification of the same systems obtained from literature, for specimens exposed to an industrial atmosphere. Coating degradation was strongly dependent on the test, and could be attributed to differences in test conditions. The best correlation between accelerated test and weathering was found for the test Prohesion alternated with cycles of exposure to UV-A radiation and condensation. (author)

  9. Seasonal changes in the atmospheric heat balance simulated by the GISS general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, P. H.; Chow, S.; Helfand, H. M.; Quirk, W. J.; Somerville, R. C. J.

    1975-01-01

    Tests of the ability of numerical general circulation models to simulate the atmosphere have focussed so far on simulations of the January climatology. These models generally present boundary conditions such as sea surface temperature, but this does not prevent testing their ability to simulate seasonal changes in atmospheric processes that accompany presented seasonal changes in boundary conditions. Experiments to simulate changes in the zonally averaged heat balance are discussed since many simplified models of climatic processes are based solely on this balance.

  10. The WASCAL high-resolution regional climate simulation ensemble for West Africa: concept, dissemination and assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Heinzeller

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Climate change and constant population growth pose severe challenges to 21st century rural Africa. Within the framework of the West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL, an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change scenarios for the greater West African region is provided to support the development of effective adaptation and mitigation measures. This contribution presents the overall concept of the WASCAL regional climate simulations, as well as detailed information on the experimental design, and provides information on the format and dissemination of the available data. All data are made available to the public at the CERA long-term archive of the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ with a subset available at the PANGAEA Data Publisher for Earth & Environmental Science portal (https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.880512. A brief assessment of the data are presented to provide guidance for future users. Regional climate projections are generated at high (12 km and intermediate (60 km resolution using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF. The simulations cover the validation period 1980–2010 and the two future periods 2020–2050 and 2070–2100. A brief comparison to observations and two climate change scenarios from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX initiative is presented to provide guidance on the data set to future users and to assess their climate change signal. Under the RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario, the results suggest an increase in temperature by 1.5 °C at the coast of Guinea and by up to 3 °C in the northern Sahel by the end of the 21st century, in line with existing climate projections for the region. They also project an increase in precipitation by up to 300 mm per year along the coast of Guinea, by up to 150 mm per year in the Soudano region adjacent in the north and almost no change in

  11. Microcanonical-ensemble computer simulation of the high-temperature expansion coefficients of the Helmholtz free energy of a square-well fluid

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sastre, Francisco; Moreno-Hilario, Elizabeth; Sotelo-Serna, Maria Guadalupe; Gil-Villegas, Alejandro

    2018-02-01

    The microcanonical-ensemble computer simulation method (MCE) is used to evaluate the perturbation terms Ai of the Helmholtz free energy of a square-well (SW) fluid. The MCE method offers a very efficient and accurate procedure for the determination of perturbation terms of discrete-potential systems such as the SW fluid and surpass the standard NVT canonical ensemble Monte Carlo method, allowing the calculation of the first six expansion terms. Results are presented for the case of a SW potential with attractive ranges 1.1 ≤ λ ≤ 1.8. Using semi-empirical representation of the MCE values for Ai, we also discuss the accuracy in the determination of the phase diagram of this system.

  12. Improving Climate Projections Using "Intelligent" Ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Noel C.; Taylor, Patrick C.

    2015-01-01

    Recent changes in the climate system have led to growing concern, especially in communities which are highly vulnerable to resource shortages and weather extremes. There is an urgent need for better climate information to develop solutions and strategies for adapting to a changing climate. Climate models provide excellent tools for studying the current state of climate and making future projections. However, these models are subject to biases created by structural uncertainties. Performance metrics-or the systematic determination of model biases-succinctly quantify aspects of climate model behavior. Efforts to standardize climate model experiments and collect simulation data-such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)-provide the means to directly compare and assess model performance. Performance metrics have been used to show that some models reproduce present-day climate better than others. Simulation data from multiple models are often used to add value to projections by creating a consensus projection from the model ensemble, in which each model is given an equal weight. It has been shown that the ensemble mean generally outperforms any single model. It is possible to use unequal weights to produce ensemble means, in which models are weighted based on performance (called "intelligent" ensembles). Can performance metrics be used to improve climate projections? Previous work introduced a framework for comparing the utility of model performance metrics, showing that the best metrics are related to the variance of top-of-atmosphere outgoing longwave radiation. These metrics improve present-day climate simulations of Earth's energy budget using the "intelligent" ensemble method. The current project identifies several approaches for testing whether performance metrics can be applied to future simulations to create "intelligent" ensemble-mean climate projections. It is shown that certain performance metrics test key climate processes in the models, and

  13. Gibbs Ensemble Simulation on Polarizable Models: Vapor-liquid Equilibrium in Baranyai-Kiss Models of Water

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Moučka, F.; Nezbeda, Ivo

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 360, DEC 25 (2013), s. 472-476 ISSN 0378-3812 Grant - others:GA MŠMT(CZ) LH12019 Institutional support: RVO:67985858 Keywords : multi-particle move monte carlo * Gibbs ensemble * vapor-liquid-equilibria Subject RIV: CF - Physical ; Theoretical Chemistry Impact factor: 2.241, year: 2013

  14. Conformational Ensemble of the Poliovirus 3CD Precursor Observed by MD Simulations and Confirmed by SAXS: A Strategy to Expand the Viral Proteome?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moustafa, Ibrahim M; Gohara, David W; Uchida, Akira; Yennawar, Neela; Cameron, Craig E

    2015-11-23

    The genomes of RNA viruses are relatively small. To overcome the small-size limitation, RNA viruses assign distinct functions to the processed viral proteins and their precursors. This is exemplified by poliovirus 3CD protein. 3C protein is a protease and RNA-binding protein. 3D protein is an RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp). 3CD exhibits unique protease and RNA-binding activities relative to 3C and is devoid of RdRp activity. The origin of these differences is unclear, since crystal structure of 3CD revealed "beads-on-a-string" structure with no significant structural differences compared to the fully processed proteins. We performed molecular dynamics (MD) simulations on 3CD to investigate its conformational dynamics. A compact conformation of 3CD was observed that was substantially different from that shown crystallographically. This new conformation explained the unique properties of 3CD relative to the individual proteins. Interestingly, simulations of mutant 3CD showed altered interface. Additionally, accelerated MD simulations uncovered a conformational ensemble of 3CD. When we elucidated the 3CD conformations in solution using small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) experiments a range of conformations from extended to compact was revealed, validating the MD simulations. The existence of conformational ensemble of 3CD could be viewed as a way to expand the poliovirus proteome, an observation that may extend to other viruses.

  15. Hybrid Simulation of the Interaction of Europa's Atmosphere with the Jovian Plasma: Multiprocessor Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dols, V. J.; Delamere, P. A.; Bagenal, F.; Cassidy, T. A.; Crary, F. J.

    2014-12-01

    We model the interaction of Europa's tenuous atmosphere with the plasma of Jupiter's torus with an improved version of our hybrid plasma code. In a hybrid plasma code, the ions are treated as kinetic Macro-particles moving under the Lorentz force and the electrons as a fluid leading to a generalized formulation of Ohm's law. In this version, the spatial simulation domain is decomposed in 2 directions and is non-uniform in the plasma convection direction. The code is run on a multi-processor supercomputer that offers 16416 cores and 2GB Ram per core. This new version allows us to tap into the large memory of the supercomputer and simulate the full interaction volume (Reuropa=1561km) with a high spatial resolution (50km). Compared to Io, Europa's atmosphere is about 100 times more tenuous, the ambient magnetic field is weaker and the density of incident plasma is lower. Consequently, the electrodynamic interaction is also weaker and substantial fluxes of thermal torus ions might reach and sputter the icy surface. Molecular O2 is the dominant atmospheric product of this surface sputtering. Observations of oxygen UV emissions (specifically the ratio of OI 1356A / 1304A emissions) are roughly consistent with an atmosphere that is composed predominantely of O2 with a small amount of atomic O. Galileo observations along flybys close to Europa have revealed the existence of induced currents in a conducting ocean under the icy crust. They also showed that, from flyby to flyby, the plasma interaction is very variable. Asymmetries of the plasma density and temperature in the wake of Europa were also observed and still elude a clear explanation. Galileo mag data also detected ion cyclotron waves, which is an indication of heavy ion pickup close to the moon. We prescribe an O2 atmosphere with a vertical density column consistent with UV observations and model the plasma properties along several Galileo flybys of the moon. We compare our results with the magnetometer

  16. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) [2.5 Deg.

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) is a weather forecast model made up of 21 separate forecasts, or ensemble members. The National Centers for Environmental...

  17. A statistical analysis of three ensembles of crop model responses totemperature and CO2concentration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Makowski, D; Asseng, S; Ewert, F.

    2015-01-01

    Ensembles of process-based crop models are increasingly used to simulate crop growth for scenarios of temperature and/or precipitation changes corresponding to different projections of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This approach generates large datasets with thousands of simulated crop yield data...

  18. Simulation of atmospheric oxidation capacity in Houston, Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Air quality model simulations are performed and evaluated for Houston using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. The simulations use two different emissions estimates: the EPA 2005 National Emissions Inventory (NEI) and the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality ...

  19. Intercomparison of oceanic and atmospheric forced and coupled mesoscale simulations. Part I: Surface fluxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Josse, P.; Caniaux, G.; Giordani, H.; Planton, S.

    1999-04-01

    A mesoscale non-hydrostatic atmospheric model has been coupled with a mesoscale oceanic model. The case study is a four-day simulation of a strong storm event observed during the SEMAPHORE experiment over a 500 × 500 km2 domain. This domain encompasses a thermohaline front associated with the Azores current. In order to analyze the effect of mesoscale coupling, three simulations are compared: the first one with the atmospheric model forced by realistic sea surface temperature analyses; the second one with the ocean model forced by atmospheric fields, derived from weather forecast re-analyses; the third one with the models being coupled. For these three simulations the surface fluxes were computed with the same bulk parametrization. All three simulations succeed well in representing the main oceanic or atmospheric features observed during the storm. Comparison of surface fields with in situ observations reveals that the winds of the fine mesh atmospheric model are more realistic than those of the weather forecast re-analyses. The low-level winds simulated with the atmospheric model in the forced and coupled simulations are appreciably stronger than the re-analyzed winds. They also generate stronger fluxes. The coupled simulation has the strongest surface heat fluxes: the difference in the net heat budget with the oceanic forced simulation reaches on average 50 Wm-2 over the simulation period. Sea surface-temperature cooling is too weak in both simulations, but is improved in the coupled run and matches better the cooling observed with drifters. The spatial distributions of sea surface-temperature cooling and surface fluxes are strongly inhomogeneous over the simulation domain. The amplitude of the flux variation is maximum in the coupled run. Moreover the weak correlation between the cooling and heat flux patterns indicates that the surface fluxes are not responsible for the whole cooling and suggests that the response of the ocean mixed layer to the atmosphere is

  20. Multilevel ensemble Kalman filtering

    KAUST Repository

    Hoel, Haakon

    2016-01-08

    The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a sequential filtering method that uses an ensemble of particle paths to estimate the means and covariances required by the Kalman filter by the use of sample moments, i.e., the Monte Carlo method. EnKF is often both robust and efficient, but its performance may suffer in settings where the computational cost of accurate simulations of particles is high. The multilevel Monte Carlo method (MLMC) is an extension of classical Monte Carlo methods which by sampling stochastic realizations on a hierarchy of resolutions may reduce the computational cost of moment approximations by orders of magnitude. In this work we have combined the ideas of MLMC and EnKF to construct the multilevel ensemble Kalman filter (MLEnKF) for the setting of finite dimensional state and observation spaces. The main ideas of this method is to compute particle paths on a hierarchy of resolutions and to apply multilevel estimators on the ensemble hierarchy of particles to compute Kalman filter means and covariances. Theoretical results and a numerical study of the performance gains of MLEnKF over EnKF will be presented. Some ideas on the extension of MLEnKF to settings with infinite dimensional state spaces will also be presented.

  1. Multilevel ensemble Kalman filtering

    KAUST Repository

    Hoel, Haakon; Chernov, Alexey; Law, Kody; Nobile, Fabio; Tempone, Raul

    2016-01-01

    The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a sequential filtering method that uses an ensemble of particle paths to estimate the means and covariances required by the Kalman filter by the use of sample moments, i.e., the Monte Carlo method. EnKF is often both robust and efficient, but its performance may suffer in settings where the computational cost of accurate simulations of particles is high. The multilevel Monte Carlo method (MLMC) is an extension of classical Monte Carlo methods which by sampling stochastic realizations on a hierarchy of resolutions may reduce the computational cost of moment approximations by orders of magnitude. In this work we have combined the ideas of MLMC and EnKF to construct the multilevel ensemble Kalman filter (MLEnKF) for the setting of finite dimensional state and observation spaces. The main ideas of this method is to compute particle paths on a hierarchy of resolutions and to apply multilevel estimators on the ensemble hierarchy of particles to compute Kalman filter means and covariances. Theoretical results and a numerical study of the performance gains of MLEnKF over EnKF will be presented. Some ideas on the extension of MLEnKF to settings with infinite dimensional state spaces will also be presented.

  2. Assessing uncertainty and sensitivity of model parameterizations and parameters in WRF affecting simulated surface fluxes and land-atmosphere coupling over the Amazon region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qian, Y.; Wang, C.; Huang, M.; Berg, L. K.; Duan, Q.; Feng, Z.; Shrivastava, M. B.; Shin, H. H.; Hong, S. Y.

    2016-12-01

    This study aims to quantify the relative importance and uncertainties of different physical processes and parameters in affecting simulated surface fluxes and land-atmosphere coupling strength over the Amazon region. We used two-legged coupling metrics, which include both terrestrial (soil moisture to surface fluxes) and atmospheric (surface fluxes to atmospheric state or precipitation) legs, to diagnose the land-atmosphere interaction and coupling strength. Observations made using the Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Mobile Facility during the GoAmazon field campaign together with satellite and reanalysis data are used to evaluate model performance. To quantify the uncertainty in physical parameterizations, we performed a 120 member ensemble of simulations with the WRF model using a stratified experimental design including 6 cloud microphysics, 3 convection, 6 PBL and surface layer, and 3 land surface schemes. A multiple-way analysis of variance approach is used to quantitatively analyze the inter- and intra-group (scheme) means and variances. To quantify parameter sensitivity, we conducted an additional 256 WRF simulations in which an efficient sampling algorithm is used to explore the multiple-dimensional parameter space. Three uncertainty quantification approaches are applied for sensitivity analysis (SA) of multiple variables of interest to 20 selected parameters in YSU PBL and MM5 surface layer schemes. Results show consistent parameter sensitivity across different SA methods. We found that 5 out of 20 parameters contribute more than 90% total variance, and first-order effects dominate comparing to the interaction effects. Results of this uncertainty quantification study serve as guidance for better understanding the roles of different physical processes in land-atmosphere interactions, quantifying model uncertainties from various sources such as physical processes, parameters and structural errors, and providing insights for

  3. Dynamical linkage of tropical and subtropical weather systems to the intraseasonal oscillations of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Part II: Simulations in the ENSEMBLES project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ma, Shujie [Institut Catala de Ciencies del Clima (IC3), Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain); Rodo, Xavier [Institut Catala de Ciencies del Clima (IC3), Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain); Institut Catala de Recerca i Estudis Avancats (ICREA), Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain); Song, Yongjia [Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA (United States); Cash, Benjamin A. [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States)

    2012-09-15

    We assess the ability of individual models (single-model ensembles) and the multi-model ensemble (MME) in the European Union-funded ENSEMBLES project to simulate the intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs; specifically in 10-20-day and 30-50-day frequency bands) of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) over the Western Ghats (WG) and the Bay of Bengal (BoB), respectively. This assessment is made on the basis of the dynamical linkages identified from the analysis of observations in a companion study to this work. In general, all models show reasonable skill in simulating the active and break cycles of the 30-50-day ISOs over the Indian summer monsoon region. This skill is closely associated with the proper reproduction of both the northward propagation of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the variations of monsoon circulation in this band. However, the models do not manage to correctly simulate the eastward propagation of the 30-50-day ISOs in the western/central tropical Pacific and the eastward extension of the ITCZ in a northwest to southeast tilt. This limitation is closely associated with a limited capacity of models to accurately reproduce the magnitudes of intraseasonal anomalies of both the ITCZ in the Asian tropical summer monsoon regions and trade winds in the tropical Pacific. Poor reproduction of the activity of the western Pacific subtropical high on intraseasonal time scales also amplify this limitation. Conversely, the models make good reproduction of the WG 10-20-day ISOs. This success is closely related to good performance of the models in the representation of the northward propagation of the ITCZ, which is partially promoted by local air-sea interactions in the Indian Ocean in this higher-frequency band. Although the feature of westward propagation is generally represented in the simulated BoB 10-20-day ISOs, the air-sea interactions in the Indian Ocean are spuriously active in the models. This leads to active WG rainfall, which is not

  4. Simulation of atmospheric dispersion of radioactivity from the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lange, R.; Sullivan, T.J.; Gudiksen, P.H.

    1989-07-01

    Measurements of airborne radioactivity over Europe, Japan, and the United States indicated that the release from the Chernobyl reactor accident in the Soviet Union on April 26, 1986 contained a wide spectrum of fission up to heights of 7 km or more within a few days after the initial explosion. This high-altitude presence of radioactivity would in part be attributable to atmospheric dynamics factors other than the thermal energy released in the initial explosion. Indications were that two types of releases had taken place -- an initial powerful explosion followed by days of a less energetic reactor fire. The Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) utilized three-dimensional atmospheric dispersion models to determine the characteristics of the source term (release) and the evolution of the spatial distributions of the airborne radioactivity as it was transported over Europe and subsequently over the northern hemisphere. This paper describes the ARAC involvement and the results of the hemispheric model calculations which graphically depict the extensive dispersal of radioactivity. 1 fig

  5. Modeling the intense 2012-2013 dense water formation event in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea: Evaluation with an ensemble simulation approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waldman, Robin; Somot, Samuel; Herrmann, Marine; Bosse, Anthony; Caniaux, Guy; Estournel, Claude; Houpert, Loic; Prieur, Louis; Sevault, Florence; Testor, Pierre

    2017-02-01

    The northwestern Mediterranean Sea is a well-observed ocean deep convection site. Winter 2012-2013 was an intense and intensely documented dense water formation (DWF) event. We evaluate this DWF event in an ensemble configuration of the regional ocean model NEMOMED12. We then assess for the first time the impact of ocean intrinsic variability on DWF with a novel perturbed initial state ensemble method. Finally, we identify the main physical mechanisms driving water mass transformations. NEMOMED12 reproduces accurately the deep convection chronology between late January and March, its location off the Gulf of Lions although with a southward shift and its magnitude. It fails to reproduce the Western Mediterranean Deep Waters salinification and warming, consistently with too strong a surface heat loss. The Ocean Intrinsic Variability modulates half of the DWF area, especially in the open-sea where the bathymetry slope is low. It modulates marginally (3-5%) the integrated DWF rate, but its increase with time suggests its impact could be larger at interannual timescales. We conclude that ensemble frameworks are necessary to evaluate accurately numerical simulations of DWF. Each phase of DWF has distinct diapycnal and thermohaline regimes: during preconditioning, the Mediterranean thermohaline circulation is driven by exchanges with the Algerian basin. During the intense mixing phase, surface heat fluxes trigger deep convection and internal mixing largely determines the resulting deep water properties. During restratification, lateral exchanges and internal mixing are enhanced. Finally, isopycnal mixing was shown to play a large role in water mass transformations during the preconditioning and restratification phases.

  6. Intercomparison of oceanic and atmospheric forced and coupled mesoscale simulations Part I: Surface fluxes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Josse

    1999-04-01

    Full Text Available A mesoscale non-hydrostatic atmospheric model has been coupled with a mesoscale oceanic model. The case study is a four-day simulation of a strong storm event observed during the SEMAPHORE experiment over a 500 × 500 km2 domain. This domain encompasses a thermohaline front associated with the Azores current. In order to analyze the effect of mesoscale coupling, three simulations are compared: the first one with the atmospheric model forced by realistic sea surface temperature analyses; the second one with the ocean model forced by atmospheric fields, derived from weather forecast re-analyses; the third one with the models being coupled. For these three simulations the surface fluxes were computed with the same bulk parametrization. All three simulations succeed well in representing the main oceanic or atmospheric features observed during the storm. Comparison of surface fields with in situ observations reveals that the winds of the fine mesh atmospheric model are more realistic than those of the weather forecast re-analyses. The low-level winds simulated with the atmospheric model in the forced and coupled simulations are appreciably stronger than the re-analyzed winds. They also generate stronger fluxes. The coupled simulation has the strongest surface heat fluxes: the difference in the net heat budget with the oceanic forced simulation reaches on average 50 Wm-2 over the simulation period. Sea surface-temperature cooling is too weak in both simulations, but is improved in the coupled run and matches better the cooling observed with drifters. The spatial distributions of sea surface-temperature cooling and surface fluxes are strongly inhomogeneous over the simulation domain. The amplitude of the flux variation is maximum in the coupled run. Moreover the weak correlation between the cooling and heat flux patterns indicates that the surface fluxes are not responsible for the whole cooling and suggests that the response of the ocean mixed layer

  7. Intercomparison of oceanic and atmospheric forced and coupled mesoscale simulations Part I: Surface fluxes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Giordani

    Full Text Available A mesoscale non-hydrostatic atmospheric model has been coupled with a mesoscale oceanic model. The case study is a four-day simulation of a strong storm event observed during the SEMAPHORE experiment over a 500 × 500 km2 domain. This domain encompasses a thermohaline front associated with the Azores current. In order to analyze the effect of mesoscale coupling, three simulations are compared: the first one with the atmospheric model forced by realistic sea surface temperature analyses; the second one with the ocean model forced by atmospheric fields, derived from weather forecast re-analyses; the third one with the models being coupled. For these three simulations the surface fluxes were computed with the same bulk parametrization. All three simulations succeed well in representing the main oceanic or atmospheric features observed during the storm. Comparison of surface fields with in situ observations reveals that the winds of the fine mesh atmospheric model are more realistic than those of the weather forecast re-analyses. The low-level winds simulated with the atmospheric model in the forced and coupled simulations are appreciably stronger than the re-analyzed winds. They also generate stronger fluxes. The coupled simulation has the strongest surface heat fluxes: the difference in the net heat budget with the oceanic forced simulation reaches on average 50 Wm-2 over the simulation period. Sea surface-temperature cooling is too weak in both simulations, but is improved in the coupled run and matches better the cooling observed with drifters. The spatial distributions of sea surface-temperature cooling and surface fluxes are strongly inhomogeneous over the simulation domain. The amplitude of the flux variation is maximum in the coupled run. Moreover the weak correlation between the cooling and heat flux patterns indicates that the surface fluxes are not responsible for the whole cooling and suggests that the response of the ocean mixed layer

  8. Developing an approach to effectively use super ensemble experiments for the projection of hydrological extremes under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watanabe, S.; Kim, H.; Utsumi, N.

    2017-12-01

    This study aims to develop a new approach which projects hydrology under climate change using super ensemble experiments. The use of multiple ensemble is essential for the estimation of extreme, which is a major issue in the impact assessment of climate change. Hence, the super ensemble experiments are recently conducted by some research programs. While it is necessary to use multiple ensemble, the multiple calculations of hydrological simulation for each output of ensemble simulations needs considerable calculation costs. To effectively use the super ensemble experiments, we adopt a strategy to use runoff projected by climate models directly. The general approach of hydrological projection is to conduct hydrological model simulations which include land-surface and river routing process using atmospheric boundary conditions projected by climate models as inputs. This study, on the other hand, simulates only river routing model using runoff projected by climate models. In general, the climate model output is systematically biased so that a preprocessing which corrects such bias is necessary for impact assessments. Various bias correction methods have been proposed, but, to the best of our knowledge, no method has proposed for variables other than surface meteorology. Here, we newly propose a method for utilizing the projected future runoff directly. The developed method estimates and corrects the bias based on the pseudo-observation which is a result of retrospective offline simulation. We show an application of this approach to the super ensemble experiments conducted under the program of Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI). More than 400 ensemble experiments from multiple climate models are available. The results of the validation using historical simulations by HAPPI indicates that the output of this approach can effectively reproduce retrospective runoff variability. Likewise, the bias of runoff from super ensemble climate

  9. Simulation of a 5MW wind turbine in an atmospheric boundary layer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meister, Konrad; Lutz, Thorsten; Krämer, Ewald

    2014-01-01

    This article presents detached eddy simulation (DES) results of a 5MW wind turbine in an unsteady atmospheric boundary layer. The evaluation performed in this article focuses on turbine blade loads as well as on the influence of atmospheric turbulence and tower on blade loads. Therefore, the turbulence transport of the atmospheric boundary layer to the turbine position is analyzed. To determine the influence of atmospheric turbulence on wind turbines the blade load spectrum is evaluated and compared to wind turbine simulation results with uniform inflow. Moreover, the influences of different frequency regimes and the tower on the blade loads are discussed. Finally, the normal force coefficient spectrum is analyzed at three different radial positions and the influence of tower and atmospheric turbulence is shown

  10. Shallow cumuli ensemble statistics for development of a stochastic parameterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakradzija, Mirjana; Seifert, Axel; Heus, Thijs

    2014-05-01

    According to a conventional deterministic approach to the parameterization of moist convection in numerical atmospheric models, a given large scale forcing produces an unique response from the unresolved convective processes. This representation leaves out the small-scale variability of convection, as it is known from the empirical studies of deep and shallow convective cloud ensembles, there is a whole distribution of sub-grid states corresponding to the given large scale forcing. Moreover, this distribution gets broader with the increasing model resolution. This behavior is also consistent with our theoretical understanding of a coarse-grained nonlinear system. We propose an approach to represent the variability of the unresolved shallow-convective states, including the dependence of the sub-grid states distribution spread and shape on the model horizontal resolution. Starting from the Gibbs canonical ensemble theory, Craig and Cohen (2006) developed a theory for the fluctuations in a deep convective ensemble. The micro-states of a deep convective cloud ensemble are characterized by the cloud-base mass flux, which, according to the theory, is exponentially distributed (Boltzmann distribution). Following their work, we study the shallow cumulus ensemble statistics and the distribution of the cloud-base mass flux. We employ a Large-Eddy Simulation model (LES) and a cloud tracking algorithm, followed by a conditional sampling of clouds at the cloud base level, to retrieve the information about the individual cloud life cycles and the cloud ensemble as a whole. In the case of shallow cumulus cloud ensemble, the distribution of micro-states is a generalized exponential distribution. Based on the empirical and theoretical findings, a stochastic model has been developed to simulate the shallow convective cloud ensemble and to test the convective ensemble theory. Stochastic model simulates a compound random process, with the number of convective elements drawn from a

  11. Two Simulated-Smog Atmospheres with Different Chemical Compositions Produce Contrasting Mutagenicity in Salmonella.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozone (O3), particulate matter (PM), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) are criteria pollutants used to evaluate air quality. Using a 14.3-m3 Teflon-lined smog chamber with 120 UV bulbs to simulate solar radiation, we generated 2 simulated-smog atmospheres (SSA-1 & SSA-2) with differ...

  12. Combining NMR ensembles and molecular dynamics simulations provides more realistic models of protein structures in solution and leads to better chemical shift prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lehtivarjo, Juuso; Tuppurainen, Kari; Hassinen, Tommi; Laatikainen, Reino; Peräkylä, Mikael

    2012-01-01

    While chemical shifts are invaluable for obtaining structural information from proteins, they also offer one of the rare ways to obtain information about protein dynamics. A necessary tool in transforming chemical shifts into structural and dynamic information is chemical shift prediction. In our previous work we developed a method for 4D prediction of protein 1 H chemical shifts in which molecular motions, the 4th dimension, were modeled using molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. Although the approach clearly improved the prediction, the X-ray structures and single NMR conformers used in the model cannot be considered fully realistic models of protein in solution. In this work, NMR ensembles (NMRE) were used to expand the conformational space of proteins (e.g. side chains, flexible loops, termini), followed by MD simulations for each conformer to map the local fluctuations. Compared with the non-dynamic model, the NMRE+MD model gave 6–17% lower root-mean-square (RMS) errors for different backbone nuclei. The improved prediction indicates that NMR ensembles with MD simulations can be used to obtain a more realistic picture of protein structures in solutions and moreover underlines the importance of short and long time-scale dynamics for the prediction. The RMS errors of the NMRE+MD model were 0.24, 0.43, 0.98, 1.03, 1.16 and 2.39 ppm for 1 Hα, 1 HN, 13 Cα, 13 Cβ, 13 CO and backbone 15 N chemical shifts, respectively. The model is implemented in the prediction program 4DSPOT, available at http://www.uef.fi/4dspothttp://www.uef.fi/4dspot.

  13. Combining NMR ensembles and molecular dynamics simulations provides more realistic models of protein structures in solution and leads to better chemical shift prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lehtivarjo, Juuso, E-mail: juuso.lehtivarjo@uef.fi; Tuppurainen, Kari; Hassinen, Tommi; Laatikainen, Reino [University of Eastern Finland, School of Pharmacy (Finland); Peraekylae, Mikael [University of Eastern Finland, Institute of Biomedicine (Finland)

    2012-03-15

    While chemical shifts are invaluable for obtaining structural information from proteins, they also offer one of the rare ways to obtain information about protein dynamics. A necessary tool in transforming chemical shifts into structural and dynamic information is chemical shift prediction. In our previous work we developed a method for 4D prediction of protein {sup 1}H chemical shifts in which molecular motions, the 4th dimension, were modeled using molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. Although the approach clearly improved the prediction, the X-ray structures and single NMR conformers used in the model cannot be considered fully realistic models of protein in solution. In this work, NMR ensembles (NMRE) were used to expand the conformational space of proteins (e.g. side chains, flexible loops, termini), followed by MD simulations for each conformer to map the local fluctuations. Compared with the non-dynamic model, the NMRE+MD model gave 6-17% lower root-mean-square (RMS) errors for different backbone nuclei. The improved prediction indicates that NMR ensembles with MD simulations can be used to obtain a more realistic picture of protein structures in solutions and moreover underlines the importance of short and long time-scale dynamics for the prediction. The RMS errors of the NMRE+MD model were 0.24, 0.43, 0.98, 1.03, 1.16 and 2.39 ppm for {sup 1}H{alpha}, {sup 1}HN, {sup 13}C{alpha}, {sup 13}C{beta}, {sup 13}CO and backbone {sup 15}N chemical shifts, respectively. The model is implemented in the prediction program 4DSPOT, available at http://www.uef.fi/4dspothttp://www.uef.fi/4dspot.

  14. Verification of Temperature and Precipitation Simulated Data by Individual and Ensemble Performance of Five AOGCM Models for North East of Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Ashraf

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Scince climatic models are the basic tools to study climate change and because of the multiplicity of these models, selecting the most appropriate model for the studying location is very considerable. In this research the temperature and precipitation simulated data by BCM2, CGCM3, CNRMCM3, MRICGCM2.3 and MIROC3 models are downscaled with proportional method according A1B, A2 and B1 emission scenarios for Torbat-heydariye, Sabzevar and Mashhad initially. Then using coefficient of determination (R2, index of agreement (D and mean-square deviations (MSD, models were verified individually and as ensemble performance. The results showed that, based on individual performance and three emission scenarios, MRICGCM2.3 model in Torbat-heydariye and Mashhad and MIROC3.2 model in Sabzevar had the best performance in simulation of temperature and MIROC3.2, MRICGCM2.3 and CNRMCM3 models have provided the most accurate predictions for precipitation in Torbat-heydariye, Sabzevar and Mashahad respectively. Also simulated temperature by all models in Torbat-heydariye and Sabzevar base on B1 scenario and, in Mashhad based on A2 scenario had the lowest uncertainty. The most accuracy in modeling of precipitation was resulted based on A2 scenario in Torbat-heydariye and, B1 scenario in Sabzevar and Mashhad. Investigation of calculated statistics driven from ensemble performance of 5 selected models caused notable reduction of simulation error and thus increase the accuracy of predictions based on all emission scenarios generally. In this case, the best fitting of simulated and observed temperature data were achieved based on B1 scenario in Torbat-heydariye and Sabzevar and, A2 scenario in Mashhad. And the best fitting simulated and observed precipitation data were obtained based on A2 scenario in Torbat-heydariye and, B1 scenario in Sabzevar and Mashhad. According to the results of this research, before any climate change research it is necessary to select the

  15. Transboundary radioactive and chemical pollution simulation using an atmospheric/marine predicting system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Telenta, B.; Antic, D.

    2001-01-01

    The atmospheric models can be used to simulate the transport of contaminants in typical accidental cases and for realistic meteorological conditions. Some numerical models for weather forecast can be used for near to real simulations of propagation of radioactive nuclides or classical chemical pollutants to the atmosphere. The various meteorological parameters are taken into account and various meteorological conditions, even complex ones, can be analyzed. The models can be used for very well assessment of the airborne pollution from energy sources and industrial installations, for comparative studies and for safety analysis. This report describes an proposal for a project of the transboundary pollution simulation, that can be used for the East Mediterranean Region. The project is based on the numerical models developed in the in simulating of the Chernobyl accident and similar hypothetical cases. The study is based on an atmospheric models developed in Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Insular Coastal Dynamics (ICoD), Foundation for International Studies, Valeta, Malta

  16. A Liouville-operator derived measure-preserving integrator for molecular dynamics simulations in the isothermal-isobaric ensemble

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tuckerman, Mark E; Alejandre, Jose; Lopez-Rendon, Roberto; Jochim, Andrea L; Martyna, Glenn J

    2006-01-01

    The constant-pressure, constant-temperature (NPT) molecular dynamics approach is re-examined from the viewpoint of deriving a new measure-preserving reversible geometric integrator for the equations of motion. The underlying concepts of non-Hamiltonian phase-space analysis, measure-preserving integrators and the symplectic property for Hamiltonian systems are briefly reviewed. In addition, current measure-preserving schemes for the constant-volume, constant-temperature ensemble are also reviewed. A new geometric integrator for the NPT method is presented, is shown to preserve the correct phase-space volume element and is demonstrated to perform well in realistic examples. Finally, a multiple time-step version of the integrator is presented for treating systems with motion on several time scales

  17. An Ideal Gas Law Simulator for Atmospheric Gas Molecules ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The ideal gas law which is the equation of state of a hypothetical ideal gas that allows us to gain useful insights into the behavior of most real gases at low densities was utilized in this work to conceptualize, design and develop the ideal gas law simulator in a 3 dimensional space using Microsoft Visual Studio, Microsoft ...

  18. Climate and atmosphere simulator for experiments on ecological systems in changing environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdier, Bruno; Jouanneau, Isabelle; Simonnet, Benoit; Rabin, Christian; Van Dooren, Tom J M; Delpierre, Nicolas; Clobert, Jean; Abbadie, Luc; Ferrière, Régis; Le Galliard, Jean-François

    2014-01-01

    Grand challenges in global change research and environmental science raise the need for replicated experiments on ecosystems subjected to controlled changes in multiple environmental factors. We designed and developed the Ecolab as a variable climate and atmosphere simulator for multifactor experimentation on natural or artificial ecosystems. The Ecolab integrates atmosphere conditioning technology optimized for accuracy and reliability. The centerpiece is a highly contained, 13-m(3) chamber to host communities of aquatic and terrestrial species and control climate (temperature, humidity, rainfall, irradiance) and atmosphere conditions (O2 and CO2 concentrations). Temperature in the atmosphere and in the water or soil column can be controlled independently of each other. All climatic and atmospheric variables can be programmed to follow dynamical trajectories and simulate gradual as well as step changes. We demonstrate the Ecolab's capacity to simulate a broad range of atmospheric and climatic conditions, their diurnal and seasonal variations, and to support the growth of a model terrestrial plant in two contrasting climate scenarios. The adaptability of the Ecolab design makes it possible to study interactions between variable climate-atmosphere factors and biotic disturbances. Developed as an open-access, multichamber platform, this equipment is available to the international scientific community for exploring interactions and feedbacks between ecological and climate systems.

  19. Electric discharge synthesis of HCN in simulated Jovian atmospheres

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stribling, Roscoe; Miller, Stanley L.

    1987-01-01

    Corona discharge is presently considered as a possible source of the HCN detected in the Jovian atmosphere at 2.2 x 10 to the -7th moles/sq cm column density, for the cases of gas mixtures containing H2, CH4, and NH3, with H2/CH4 ratios from 4.4 to 1585. A 3:1 ratio of corona discharge to lightning energy similar to that of the earth is applied to Jupiter. Depending on the lightning energy available on Jupiter and the eddy diffusion coefficients in the synthesis region, HCN column densities generated by corona discharge could account for about 10 percent of the HCN observed.

  20. Puff models for simulation of fugitive radioactive emissions in atmosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Costa, Camila P. da, E-mail: camila.costa@ufpel.edu.b [Universidade Federal de Pelotas (UFPel), RS (Brazil). Inst. de Fisica e Matematica. Dept. de Matematica e Estatistica; Pereira, Ledina L., E-mail: ledinalentz@yahoo.com.b [Universidade do Extremo Sul Catarinense (UNESC), Criciuma, SC (Brazil); Vilhena, Marco T., E-mail: vilhena@pq.cnpq.b [Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil). Programa de Pos-Graduacao em Engenharia Mecanica; Tirabassi, Tiziano, E-mail: t.tirabassi@isac.cnr.i [Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (CNR/ISAC), Bologna (Italy)

    2009-07-01

    A puff model for the dispersion of material from fugitive radioactive emissions is presented. For vertical diffusion the model is based on general techniques for solving time dependent advection-diffusion equation: the ADMM (Advection Diffusion Multilayer Method) and GILTT (Generalized Integral Laplace Transform Technique) techniques. The first one is an analytical solution based on a discretization of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL) in sub-layers where the advection-diffusion equation is solved by the Laplace transform technique. The solution is given in integral form. The second one is a well-known hybrid method that had solved a wide class of direct and inverse problems mainly in the area of Heat Transfer and Fluid Mechanics and the solution is given in series form. Comparisons between values predicted by the models against experimental ground-level concentrations are shown. (author)

  1. Puff models for simulation of fugitive radioactive emissions in atmosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costa, Camila P. da; Vilhena, Marco T.

    2009-01-01

    A puff model for the dispersion of material from fugitive radioactive emissions is presented. For vertical diffusion the model is based on general techniques for solving time dependent advection-diffusion equation: the ADMM (Advection Diffusion Multilayer Method) and GILTT (Generalized Integral Laplace Transform Technique) techniques. The first one is an analytical solution based on a discretization of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL) in sub-layers where the advection-diffusion equation is solved by the Laplace transform technique. The solution is given in integral form. The second one is a well-known hybrid method that had solved a wide class of direct and inverse problems mainly in the area of Heat Transfer and Fluid Mechanics and the solution is given in series form. Comparisons between values predicted by the models against experimental ground-level concentrations are shown. (author)

  2. Simulation of nonstationary phenomena in atmospheric-pressure glow discharge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korolev, Yu. D.; Frants, O. B.; Nekhoroshev, V. O.; Suslov, A. I.; Kas'yanov, V. S.; Shemyakin, I. A.; Bolotov, A. V.

    2016-06-01

    Nonstationary processes in atmospheric-pressure glow discharge manifest themselves in spontaneous transitions from the normal glow discharge into a spark. In the experiments, both so-called completed transitions in which a highly conductive constricted channel arises and incomplete transitions accompanied by the formation of a diffuse channel are observed. A model of the positive column of a discharge in air is elaborated that allows one to interpret specific features of the discharge both in the stationary stage and during its transition into a spark and makes it possible to calculate the characteristic oscillatory current waveforms for completed transitions into a spark and aperiodic ones for incomplete transitions. The calculated parameters of the positive column in the glow discharge mode agree well with experiment. Data on the densities of the most abundant species generated in the discharge (such as atomic oxygen, metastable nitrogen molecules, ozone, nitrogen oxides, and negative oxygen ions) are presented.

  3. Simulation of nonstationary phenomena in atmospheric-pressure glow discharge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Korolev, Yu. D.; Frants, O. B.; Nekhoroshev, V. O.; Suslov, A. I.; Kas’yanov, V. S.; Shemyakin, I. A.; Bolotov, A. V.

    2016-01-01

    Nonstationary processes in atmospheric-pressure glow discharge manifest themselves in spontaneous transitions from the normal glow discharge into a spark. In the experiments, both so-called completed transitions in which a highly conductive constricted channel arises and incomplete transitions accompanied by the formation of a diffuse channel are observed. A model of the positive column of a discharge in air is elaborated that allows one to interpret specific features of the discharge both in the stationary stage and during its transition into a spark and makes it possible to calculate the characteristic oscillatory current waveforms for completed transitions into a spark and aperiodic ones for incomplete transitions. The calculated parameters of the positive column in the glow discharge mode agree well with experiment. Data on the densities of the most abundant species generated in the discharge (such as atomic oxygen, metastable nitrogen molecules, ozone, nitrogen oxides, and negative oxygen ions) are presented.

  4. [Simulating of carbon fluxes in bamboo forest ecosystem using BEPS model based on the LAI assimilated with Dual Ensemble Kalman Filter].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xue Jian; Mao, Fang Jie; Du, Hua Qiang; Zhou, Guo Mo; Xu, Xiao Jun; Li, Ping Heng; Liu, Yu Li; Cui, Lu

    2016-12-01

    LAI is one of the most important observation data in the research of carbon cycle of forest ecosystem, and it is also an important parameter to drive process-based ecosystem model. The Moso bamboo forest (MBF) and Lei bamboo forest (LBF) were selected as the study targets. Firstly, the MODIS LAI time series data during 2014-2015 was assimilated with Dual Ensemble Kalman Filter method. Secondly, the high quality assimilated MBF LAI and LBF LAI were used as input dataset to drive BEPS model for simulating the gross primary productivity (GPP), net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and total ecosystem respiration (TER) of the two types of bamboo forest ecosystem, respectively. The modeled carbon fluxes were evaluated by the observed carbon fluxes data, and the effects of different quality LAI inputs on carbon cycle simulation were also studied. The LAI assimilated using Dual Ensemble Kalman Filter of MBF and LBF were significantly correlated with the observed LAI, with high R 2 of 0.81 and 0.91 respectively, and lower RMSE and absolute bias, which represented the great improvement of the accuracy of MODIS LAI products. With the driving of assimilated LAI, the modeled GPP, NEE, and TER were also highly correlated with the flux observation data, with the R 2 of 0.66, 0.47, and 0.64 for MBF, respectively, and 0.66, 0.45, and 0.73 for LBF, respectively. The accuracy of carbon fluxes modeled with assimilated LAI was higher than that acquired by the locally adjusted cubic-spline capping method, in which, the accuracy of mo-deled NEE for MBF and LBF increased by 11.2% and 11.8% at the most degrees, respectively.

  5. Simulations of the general circulation of the Martian atmosphere. I - Polar processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollack, James B.; Haberle, Robert M.; Schaeffer, James; Lee, Hilda

    1990-01-01

    Numerical simulations of the Martian atmosphere general circulation are carried out for 50 simulated days, using a three-dimensional model, based on the primitive equations of meteorology, which incorporated the radiative effects of atmospheric dust on solar and thermal radiation. A large number of numerical experiments were conducted for alternative choices of seasonal date and dust optical depth. It was found that, as the dust content of the winter polar region increased, the rate of atmospheric CO2 condensation increased sharply. It is shown that the strong seasonal variation in the atmospheric dust content observed might cause a number of hemispheric asymmetries. These asymmetries include the greater prevalence of polar hoods in the northern polar region during winter, the lower albedo of the northern polar cap during spring, and the total dissipation of the northern CO2 ice cap during the warmer seasons.

  6. A conceptual framework for using Doppler radar acquired atmospheric data for flight simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, W.

    1983-01-01

    A concept is presented which can permit turbulence simulation in the vicinity of microbursts. The method involves a large data base, but should be fast enough for use with flight simulators. The model permits any pilot to simulate any flight maneuver in any aircraft. The model simulates a wind field with three-component mean winds and three-component turbulent gusts, and gust variation over the body of an aircraft so that all aerodynamic loads and moments can be calculated. The time and space variation of mean winds and turbulent intensities associated with a particular atmospheric phenomenon such as a microburst is used in the model. In fact, Doppler radar data such as provided by JAWS is uniquely suited for use with the proposed model. The concept is completely general and is not restricted to microburst studies. Reentry and flight in terrestrial or planetary atmospheres could be realistically simulated if supporting data of sufficient resolution were available.

  7. Simulating Storm Surge Impacts with a Coupled Atmosphere-Inundation Model with Varying Meteorological Forcing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra N. Ramos Valle

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Storm surge events have the potential to cause devastating damage to coastal communities. The magnitude of their impacts highlights the need for increased accuracy and real-time forecasting and predictability of storm surge. In this study, we assess two meteorological forcing configurations to hindcast the storm surge of Hurricane Sandy, and ultimately support the improvement of storm surge forecasts. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model is coupled to the ADvanced CIRCulation Model (ADCIRC to determine water elevations. We perform four coupled simulations and compare storm surge estimates resulting from the use of a parametric vortex model and a full-physics atmospheric model. One simulation is forced with track-based meteorological data calculated from WRF, while three simulations are forced with the full wind and pressure field outputs from WRF simulations of varying resolutions. Experiments were compared to an ADCIRC simulation forced by National Hurricane Center best track data, as well as to station observations. Our results indicated that given accurate meteorological best track data, a parametric vortex model can accurately forecast maximum water elevations, improving upon the use of a full-physics coupled atmospheric-surge model. In the absence of a best track, atmospheric forcing in the form of full wind and pressure field from a high-resolution atmospheric model simulation prove reliable for storm surge forecasting.

  8. Measuring the spectral emissivity of thermal protection materials during atmospheric reentry simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marble, Elizabeth

    1996-01-01

    Hypersonic spacecraft reentering the earth's atmosphere encounter extreme heat due to atmospheric friction. Thermal Protection System (TPS) materials shield the craft from this searing heat, which can reach temperatures of 2900 F. Various thermophysical and optical properties of TPS materials are tested at the Johnson Space Center Atmospheric Reentry Materials and Structures Evaluation Facility, which has the capability to simulate critical environmental conditions associated with entry into the earth's atmosphere. Emissivity is an optical property that determines how well a material will reradiate incident heat back into the atmosphere upon reentry, thus protecting the spacecraft from the intense frictional heat. This report describes a method of measuring TPS emissivities using the SR5000 Scanning Spectroradiometer, and includes system characteristics, sample data, and operational procedures developed for arc-jet applications.

  9. ENSO Simulation in CGCMs and the Associated Errors in Atmospheric Response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    AchutaRao, K.; Sperber, K.R.

    2000-01-01

    Tropical Pacific variability, and specifically the simulation of ENSO in coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (CGCMs) has previously been assessed in many studies (McCreary and Anderson[1991], Neelin et al.[1992], Mechoso et al.[1995], Latif et al.[2000], and Davey et al.[2000]). These studies have concentrated on SST variations in the tropical Pacific, and discussions of the atmospheric response have been limited to east-west movements of the convergence zone. In this paper we discuss the large-scale atmospheric response to simulated ENSO events. Control simulations from 17 global CGCMs from CMIP (Meehl et al.[2000]) are studied. The web site http:// www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip/modeldoc provides documentation of the configurations of the models

  10. Simulating atmospheric turbulence using a phase-only spatial light modulator

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Burger, L

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available is zero and the outer scale is infinity. These assumptions lead to a well-defined distribution for the randomness in the refractive index of the atmosphere, which can be applied in the laboratory, giving a good approximation for a real atmosphere.1.... There are two basic aims: first, to expound on the steps required to actually simulate atmospheric turbulence in the laboratory, and second, to point out some of the limitations in using spatial light modula- Research Articles South African Journal of Science...

  11. Multi-model ensemble simulations of troposheric NO2 compared with GOME retrievals for the year 2000

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Noije, van T.P.C.; Eskes, H.J.; Dentener, F.J.; Stevenson, D.S.; Ellingsen, K.; Schultz, M.G.; Wild, O.; Amann, M.; Atherton, C.S.; Bergmann, D.; Bey, I.; Boersma, K.F.; Butler, T.; Cofala, J.; Drevet, J.; Fiore, A.M.; Gauss, M.; Hauglustaine, D.A.; Horowitz, L.W.; Isaksen, I.S.A.; Krol, M.C.; Lamarque, J.F.; Lawrence, M.G.; Martin, R.V.; Montanaro, V.; Muller, J.F.; Pitari, G.; Prather, M.J.; Pyle, J.A.; Richter, A.; Rodriguez, J.M.; Savage, N.H.; Strahan, S.E.; Sudo, K.; Szopa, S.; Roozendael, van M.

    2006-01-01

    We present a systematic comparison of tropospheric NO2 from 17 global atmospheric chemistry models with three state-of-the-art retrievals from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) for the year 2000. The models used constant anthropogenic emissions from IIASA/EDGAR3.2 and monthly emissions

  12. Monte Carlo and discrete-ordinate simulations of irradiances in the coupled atmosphere-ocean system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gjerstad, Karl Idar; Stamnes, Jakob J; Hamre, Børge; Lotsberg, Jon K; Yan, Banghua; Stamnes, Knut

    2003-05-20

    We compare Monte Carlo (MC) and discrete-ordinate radiative-transfer (DISORT) simulations of irradiances in a one-dimensional coupled atmosphere-ocean (CAO) system consisting of horizontal plane-parallel layers. The two models have precisely the same physical basis, including coupling between the atmosphere and the ocean, and we use precisely the same atmospheric and oceanic input parameters for both codes. For a plane atmosphere-ocean interface we find agreement between irradiances obtained with the two codes to within 1%, both in the atmosphere and the ocean. Our tests cover case 1 water, scattering by density fluctuations both in the atmosphere and in the ocean, and scattering by particulate matter represented by a one-parameter Henyey-Greenstein (HG) scattering phase function. The CAO-MC code has an advantage over the CAO-DISORT code in that it can handle surface waves on the atmosphere-ocean interface, but the CAO-DISORT code is computationally much faster. Therefore we use CAO-MC simulations to study the influence of ocean surface waves and propose a way to correct the results of the CAO-DISORT code so as to obtain fast and accurate underwater irradiances in the presence of surface waves.

  13. Simulation of Wind turbines in the atmospheric boundary layer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chivaee, Hamid Sarlak; Sørensen, Jens Nørkær; Mikkelsen, Robert Flemming

    as well as turbulent inflow condition. For generating turbulent inflow, a model is used in which a turbulent plane is introduced in the domain and convected in each time step, using Taylor's frozen hypothesis. The results of different simulations are analysed and compared in terms of mean values...... the computational costs scale rapidly with Reynolds number and domain size[1]. An approach to overcome these deficiencies is to use a wall modeling near the walls and then use a coarser grid at the first grid level above the ground. This could be performed by using simplified Navier-Stokes equations in the boundary...... condition is used in the bottom, a symmetry boundary on the top and periodic boundaries on the sides as well as inlet and outlet boundaries. For the temperature, a fixed value of 285 K is applied from the ground up to a height of 1 km and the temperature increases linearly with the rate of 3.5 degrees per...

  14. The free energy of the metastable supersaturated vapor via restricted ensemble simulations. III. An extension to the Corti and Debenedetti subcell constraint algorithm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nie, Chu; Geng, Jun; Marlow, William H.

    2016-01-01

    In order to improve the sampling of restricted microstates in our previous work [C. Nie, J. Geng, and W. H. Marlow, J. Chem. Phys. 127, 154505 (2007); 128, 234310 (2008)] and quantitatively predict thermal properties of supersaturated vapors, an extension is made to the Corti and Debenedetti subcell constraint algorithm [D. S. Corti and P. Debenedetti, Chem. Eng. Sci. 49, 2717 (1994)], which restricts the maximum allowed local density at any point in a simulation box. The maximum allowed local density at a point in a simulation box is defined by the maximum number of particles N m allowed to appear inside a sphere of radius R, with this point as the center of the sphere. Both N m and R serve as extra thermodynamic variables for maintaining a certain degree of spatial homogeneity in a supersaturated system. In a restricted canonical ensemble, at a given temperature and an overall density, series of local minima on the Helmholtz free energy surface F(N m , R) are found subject to different (N m , R) pairs. The true equilibrium metastable state is identified through the analysis of the formation free energies of Stillinger clusters of various sizes obtained from these restricted states. The simulation results of a supersaturated Lennard-Jones vapor at reduced temperature 0.7 including the vapor pressure isotherm, formation free energies of critical nuclei, and chemical potential differences are presented and analyzed. In addition, with slight modifications, the current algorithm can be applied to computing thermal properties of superheated liquids.

  15. A simple atmospheric boundary layer model applied to large eddy simulations of wind turbine wakes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Troldborg, Niels; Sørensen, Jens Nørkær; Mikkelsen, Robert Flemming

    2014-01-01

    A simple model for including the influence of the atmospheric boundary layer in connection with large eddy simulations of wind turbine wakes is presented and validated by comparing computed results with measurements as well as with direct numerical simulations. The model is based on an immersed...... boundary type technique where volume forces are used to introduce wind shear and atmospheric turbulence. The application of the model for wake studies is demonstrated by combining it with the actuator line method, and predictions are compared with field measurements. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd....

  16. Combining super-ensembles and statistical emulation to improve a regional climate and vegetation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawkins, L. R.; Rupp, D. E.; Li, S.; Sarah, S.; McNeall, D. J.; Mote, P.; Betts, R. A.; Wallom, D.

    2017-12-01

    Changing regional patterns of surface temperature, precipitation, and humidity may cause ecosystem-scale changes in vegetation, altering the distribution of trees, shrubs, and grasses. A changing vegetation distribution, in turn, alters the albedo, latent heat flux, and carbon exchanged with the atmosphere with resulting feedbacks onto the regional climate. However, a wide range of earth-system processes that affect the carbon, energy, and hydrologic cycles occur at sub grid scales in climate models and must be parameterized. The appropriate parameter values in such parameterizations are often poorly constrained, leading to uncertainty in predictions of how the ecosystem will respond to changes in forcing. To better understand the sensitivity of regional climate to parameter selection and to improve regional climate and vegetation simulations, we used a large perturbed physics ensemble and a suite of statistical emulators. We dynamically downscaled a super-ensemble (multiple parameter sets and multiple initial conditions) of global climate simulations using a 25-km resolution regional climate model HadRM3p with the land-surface scheme MOSES2 and dynamic vegetation module TRIFFID. We simultaneously perturbed land surface parameters relating to the exchange of carbon, water, and energy between the land surface and atmosphere in a large super-ensemble of regional climate simulations over the western US. Statistical emulation was used as a computationally cost-effective tool to explore uncertainties in interactions. Regions of parameter space that did not satisfy observational constraints were eliminated and an ensemble of parameter sets that reduce regional biases and span a range of plausible interactions among earth system processes were selected. This study demonstrated that by combining super-ensemble simulations with statistical emulation, simulations of regional climate could be improved while simultaneously accounting for a range of plausible land-atmosphere

  17. Multi-Model Ensemble Wake Vortex Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koerner, Stephan; Holzaepfel, Frank; Ahmad, Nash'at N.

    2015-01-01

    Several multi-model ensemble methods are investigated for predicting wake vortex transport and decay. This study is a joint effort between National Aeronautics and Space Administration and Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt to develop a multi-model ensemble capability using their wake models. An overview of different multi-model ensemble methods and their feasibility for wake applications is presented. The methods include Reliability Ensemble Averaging, Bayesian Model Averaging, and Monte Carlo Simulations. The methodologies are evaluated using data from wake vortex field experiments.

  18. Ensemble methods for seasonal limited area forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arritt, Raymond W.; Anderson, Christopher J.; Takle, Eugene S.

    2004-01-01

    The ensemble prediction methods used for seasonal limited area forecasts were examined by comparing methods for generating ensemble simulations of seasonal precipitation. The summer 1993 model over the north-central US was used as a test case. The four methods examined included the lagged-average...

  19. Simulation of a Large Wildfire in a Coupled Fire-Atmosphere Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Baptiste Filippi

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The Aullene fire devastated more than 3000 ha of Mediterranean maquis and pine forest in July 2009. The simulation of combustion processes, as well as atmospheric dynamics represents a challenge for such scenarios because of the various involved scales, from the scale of the individual flames to the larger regional scale. A coupled approach between the Meso-NH (Meso-scale Non-Hydrostatic atmospheric model running in LES (Large Eddy Simulation mode and the ForeFire fire spread model is proposed for predicting fine- to large-scale effects of this extreme wildfire, showing that such simulation is possible in a reasonable time using current supercomputers. The coupling involves the surface wind to drive the fire, while heat from combustion and water vapor fluxes are injected into the atmosphere at each atmospheric time step. To be representative of the phenomenon, a sub-meter resolution was used for the simulation of the fire front, while atmospheric simulations were performed with nested grids from 2400-m to 50-m resolution. Simulations were run with or without feedback from the fire to the atmospheric model, or without coupling from the atmosphere to the fire. In the two-way mode, the burnt area was reproduced with a good degree of realism at the local scale, where an acceleration in the valley wind and over sloping terrain pushed the fire line to locations in accordance with fire passing point observations. At the regional scale, the simulated fire plume compares well with the satellite image. The study explores the strong fire-atmosphere interactions leading to intense convective updrafts extending above the boundary layer, significant downdrafts behind the fire line in the upper plume, and horizontal wind speeds feeding strong inflow into the base of the convective updrafts. The fire-induced dynamics is induced by strong near-surface sensible heat fluxes reaching maximum values of 240 kW m − 2 . The dynamical production of turbulent kinetic

  20. Using sensitivity derivatives for design and parameter estimation in an atmospheric plasma discharge simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lange, Kyle J.; Anderson, W. Kyle

    2010-01-01

    The problem of applying sensitivity analysis to a one-dimensional atmospheric radio frequency plasma discharge simulation is considered. A fluid simulation is used to model an atmospheric pressure radio frequency helium discharge with a small nitrogen impurity. Sensitivity derivatives are computed for the peak electron density with respect to physical inputs to the simulation. These derivatives are verified using several different methods to compute sensitivity derivatives. It is then demonstrated how sensitivity derivatives can be used within a design cycle to change these physical inputs so as to increase the peak electron density. It is also shown how sensitivity analysis can be used in conjunction with experimental data to obtain better estimates for rate and transport parameters. Finally, it is described how sensitivity analysis could be used to compute an upper bound on the uncertainty for results from a simulation.

  1. Multimodel ensembles of wheat growth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martre, Pierre; Wallach, Daniel; Asseng, Senthold

    2015-01-01

    , but such studies are difficult to organize and have only recently begun. We report on the largest ensemble study to date, of 27 wheat models tested in four contrasting locations for their accuracy in simulating multiple crop growth and yield variables. The relative error averaged over models was 24...

  2. Improving Simulated Soil Moisture Fields Through Assimilation of AMSR-E Soil Moisture Retrievals with an Ensemble Kalman Filter and a Mass Conservation Constraint

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Bailing; Toll, David; Zhan, Xiwu; Cosgrove, Brian

    2011-01-01

    Model simulated soil moisture fields are often biased due to errors in input parameters and deficiencies in model physics. Satellite derived soil moisture estimates, if retrieved appropriately, represent the spatial mean of soil moisture in a footprint area, and can be used to reduce model bias (at locations near the surface) through data assimilation techniques. While assimilating the retrievals can reduce model bias, it can also destroy the mass balance enforced by the model governing equation because water is removed from or added to the soil by the assimilation algorithm. In addition, studies have shown that assimilation of surface observations can adversely impact soil moisture estimates in the lower soil layers due to imperfect model physics, even though the bias near the surface is decreased. In this study, an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) with a mass conservation updating scheme was developed to assimilate the actual value of Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) soil moisture retrievals to improve the mean of simulated soil moisture fields by the Noah land surface model. Assimilation results using the conventional and the mass conservation updating scheme in the Little Washita watershed of Oklahoma showed that, while both updating schemes reduced the bias in the shallow root zone, the mass conservation scheme provided better estimates in the deeper profile. The mass conservation scheme also yielded physically consistent estimates of fluxes and maintained the water budget. Impacts of model physics on the assimilation results are discussed.

  3. Two Simulated-Smog Atmospheres with Different Chemical Compositions Produce Contrasting Mutagenicity in Salmonella**

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozone (O3), particulate matter (PM), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) are criteria pollutants used to evaluate air quality. Using EPA’s Mobile Reaction Chamber (MRC), we generated 2 simulated-smog atmospheres (SSA-1 & SSA-2) with different concentrations of these criteria pol...

  4. Mutagenicity in Salmonella of a Simulated Urban-Smog Atmosphere Generated Using a Mobile Reaction Chamber

    Science.gov (United States)

    The EPA Mobile Reaction Chamber (MRC) is a 24-foot trailer containing a 14.3-m3 Teflon lined photochemical chamber used to generate simulated urban atmospheres. Photochemistry in the MRC is catalyzed by 120 fluorescent bulbs evenly mixed with black light bulbs and UV bulbs (300 &...

  5. Simulation of preindustrial atmospheric methane to constrain the global source strength of natural wetlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Houweling, S; Dentener, F; Lelieveld, J

    2000-01-01

    Previous attempts to quantify the global source strength of CH4 from natural wetlands have resulted in a range of 90-260 TE(CH4) yr(-1). This relatively uncertain estimate significantly limits our understanding of atmospheric methane. In this study we reduce this uncertainty by simulating

  6. Wind Energy-Related Atmospheric Boundary Layer Large-Eddy Simulation Using OpenFOAM: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Churchfield, M.J.; Vijayakumar, G.; Brasseur, J.G.; Moriarty, P.J.

    2010-08-01

    This paper develops and evaluates the performance of a large-eddy simulation (LES) solver in computing the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) over flat terrain under a variety of stability conditions, ranging from shear driven (neutral stratification) to moderately convective (unstable stratification).

  7. Application of numerical environment system to regional atmospheric radioactivity transport simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamazawa, H.; Ohkura, T.; Iida, T.; Chino, M.; Nagai, H.

    2003-01-01

    Main functions of the Numerical Environment System (NES), as a part of the Information Technology Based Laboratory (ITBL) project implemented by Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute, became available for test use purposes although the development of the system is still underway. This system consists of numerical models of meteorology and atmospheric dispersion, database necessary for model simulations, post- and pre-processors such as data conversion and visualization, and a suite of system software which provide the users with system functions through a web page access. The system utilizes calculation servers such as vector- and scalar-parallel processors for numerical model execution, a EWS which serves as a hub of the system. This system provides users in the field of nuclear emergency preparedness and atmospheric environment with easy-to-use functions of atmospheric dispersion simulations including input meteorological data preparation and visualization of simulation results. The performance of numerical models in the system was examined with observation data of long-range transported radon-222. The models in the system reproduced quite well temporal variations in the observed radon-222 concentrations in air which were caused by changes in the meteorological field in the synoptic scale. By applying the NES models in combination with the idea of backward-in-time atmospheric dispersion simulation, seasonal shift of source areas of radon-222 in the eastern Asian regions affecting the concentrations in Japan was quantitatively illustrated. (authors)

  8. Atmospheric models in the numerical simulation system (SPEEDI-MP) for environmental studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagai, Haruyasu; Terada, Hiroaki

    2007-01-01

    As a nuclear emergency response system, numerical models to predict the atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides have been developed at Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA). Evolving these models by incorporating new schemes for physical processes and up-to-date computational technologies, a numerical simulation system, which consists of dynamical models and material transport models for the atmospheric, terrestrial, and oceanic environments, has been constructed to apply for various environmental studies. In this system, the combination of a non-hydrostatic atmospheric dynamic model and Lagrangian particle dispersion model is used for the emergency response system. The utilization of detailed meteorological field by the atmospheric model improves the model performance for diffusion and deposition calculations. It also calculates a large area domain with coarse resolution and local area domain with high resolution simultaneously. The performance of new model system was evaluated using measurements of surface deposition of 137 Cs over Europe during the Chernobyl accident. (author)

  9. Simulation of atmospheric CO2 over Europe and western Siberia using the regional scale model REMO

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chevillard, A.; Ciais, P.; Lafont, S.

    2002-01-01

    The spatial distribution and the temporal variability of atmospheric CO 2 over Europe and western Siberia are investigated using the regional atmospheric model, REMO. The model, of typical horizontal resolution 50 km, is part of a nested modelling framework that has been established as a concerted action during the EUROSIBERIAN CARBONFLUX project. In REMO, the transport of CO 2 is simulated together with climate variables, which offers the possibility of calculating at each time step the land atmosphere CO 2 fluxes as driven by the modelled meteorology. The uptake of CO 2 by photosynthesis is calculated using a light use efficiency formulation, where the absorbed photosynthetically active solar radiation is inferred from satellite measurements. The release of CO 2 from plant and soil respiration is driven by the simulated climate and assumed to be in equilibrium with photosynthesis over the course of one year. Fossil CO 2 emissions and air-sea fluxes within the model domain are prescribed, whereas the influence of sources outside the model domain is computed from as a boundary condition CO 2 fields determined a global transport model. The modelling results are compared against pointwise eddy covariance fluxes, and against atmospheric CO 2 records. We show that a necessary condition to simulate realistically the variability of atmospheric CO 2 over continental Europe is to account for the diurnal cycle of biospheric exchange. Overall, for the study period of July 1998, REMO realistically simulates the short-term variability of fluxes and of atmospheric mixing ratios. However, the mean CO 2 gradients from western Europe to western Siberia are not correctly reproduced. This latter deficiency points out the key role of boundary conditions in a limited-area model, as well as the need for using more realistic geographic mean patterns of biospheric carbon fluxes

  10. Influence of atmospheric stability on wind-turbine wakes: A large-eddy simulation study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abkar, Mahdi; Porté-Agel, Fernando

    2014-05-01

    In this study, large-eddy simulation is combined with a turbine model to investigate the influence of atmospheric stability on wind-turbine wakes. In the simulations, subgrid-scale turbulent fluxes are parameterized using tuning-free Lagrangian scale-dependent dynamic models. These models optimize the local value of the model coefficients based on the dynamics of the resolved scales. The turbine-induced forces are parameterized with an actuator-disk model with rotation. In this technique, blade-element theory is used to calculate the lift and drag forces acting on the blades. Emphasis is placed on the structure and characteristics of wind-turbine wakes in the cases where the incident flows to the turbine have the same mean velocity at the hub height but different stability conditions. The simulation results show that atmospheric stability has a significant effect on the spatial distribution of the mean velocity deficit and turbulent fluxes in the wake region. In particular, the magnitude of the velocity deficit increases with increasing stability in the atmosphere. In addition, the locations of the maximum turbulence intensity and turbulent stresses are closer to the turbine in convective boundary layer compared with neutral and stable ones. Detailed analysis of the resolved turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) budget inside the wake reveals also that the thermal stratification of the incoming wind considerably affects the magnitude and spatial distribution of the turbulent production, transport term and dissipation rate (transfer of energy to the subgrid scales). It is also shown that the near-wake region can be extended to a farther distance downstream in stable condition compared with neutral and unstable counterparts. In order to isolate the effect of atmospheric stability, additional simulations of neutrally-stratified atmospheric boundary layers are performed with the same turbulence intensity at hub height as convective and stable ones. The results show that the

  11. Numerical simulation of atmospheric dispersion in the vicinity of the Rocky Flats plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bossert, J.E.; Poulos, G.S.

    1993-01-01

    The Atmospheric Studies in Complex Terrain (ASCOT) program sponsored a field experiment in the winter of 1991 near Rocky Flats, Colorado. Both meteorological and tracer dispersion measurements were taken. These two data sets provided an opportunity to investigate the influence of terrain-generated, radiatively-driven flows on the dispersion of the tracer. In this study, we use the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) to simulate meteorological conditions and tracer dispersion on the case night of 4--5 February 1991. The simulations were developed to examine the influence of nocturnal drainage flow from various topography regimes on the dispersion of tracer from the Rocky Flats plant. The simulation described herein demonstrates the extent to which Rocky Mountain drainage winds influence the flow at the mountain/plain interface for a particular case night, and shows the potential importance of canyon drainage on dispersion from the Rocky Flats area

  12. Accurate Vapour-Liquid Equilibrium Calculations for Complex Systems Using the Reaction Gibbs Ensemble Monte Carlo Simulation Method

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Lísal, Martin; Smith, W. R.; Nezbeda, Ivo

    2001-01-01

    Roč. 181, 1-2 (2001), s. 127-146 ISSN 0378-3812 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA203/98/1446; GA AV ČR IAA4072712 Grant - others:NSERC(Ca) OGP1041 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z4072921 Keywords : computer simulations * mixtures * water Subject RIV: CF - Physical ; Theoretical Chemistry Impact factor: 1.217, year: 2001

  13. Numerical simulations of atmospheric dispersion of iodine-131 by different models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ádám Leelőssy

    Full Text Available Nowadays, several dispersion models are available to simulate the transport processes of air pollutants and toxic substances including radionuclides in the atmosphere. Reliability of atmospheric transport models has been demonstrated in several recent cases from local to global scale; however, very few actual emission data are available to evaluate model results in real-life cases. In this study, the atmospheric dispersion of 131I emitted to the atmosphere during an industrial process was simulated with different models, namely the WRF-Chem Eulerian online coupled model and the HYSPLIT and the RAPTOR Lagrangian models. Although only limited data of 131I detections has been available, the accuracy of modeled plume direction could be evaluated in complex late autumn weather situations. For the studied cases, the general reliability of models has been demonstrated. However, serious uncertainties arise related to low level inversions, above all in case of an emission event on 4 November 2011, when an important wind shear caused a significant difference between simulated and real transport directions. Results underline the importance of prudent interpretation of dispersion model results and the identification of weather conditions with a potential to cause large model errors.

  14. Intercomparison of Martian Lower Atmosphere Simulated Using Different Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization Schemes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Natarajan, Murali; Fairlie, T. Duncan; Dwyer Cianciolo, Alicia; Smith, Michael D.

    2015-01-01

    We use the mesoscale modeling capability of Mars Weather Research and Forecasting (MarsWRF) model to study the sensitivity of the simulated Martian lower atmosphere to differences in the parameterization of the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Characterization of the Martian atmosphere and realistic representation of processes such as mixing of tracers like dust depend on how well the model reproduces the evolution of the PBL structure. MarsWRF is based on the NCAR WRF model and it retains some of the PBL schemes available in the earth version. Published studies have examined the performance of different PBL schemes in NCAR WRF with the help of observations. Currently such assessments are not feasible for Martian atmospheric models due to lack of observations. It is of interest though to study the sensitivity of the model to PBL parameterization. Typically, for standard Martian atmospheric simulations, we have used the Medium Range Forecast (MRF) PBL scheme, which considers a correction term to the vertical gradients to incorporate nonlocal effects. For this study, we have also used two other parameterizations, a non-local closure scheme called Yonsei University (YSU) PBL scheme and a turbulent kinetic energy closure scheme called Mellor- Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) PBL scheme. We will present intercomparisons of the near surface temperature profiles, boundary layer heights, and wind obtained from the different simulations. We plan to use available temperature observations from Mini TES instrument onboard the rovers Spirit and Opportunity in evaluating the model results.

  15. Premar-2: a Monte Carlo code for radiative transport simulation in atmospheric environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cupini, E.

    1999-01-01

    The peculiarities of the PREMAR-2 code, aimed at radiation transport Monte Carlo simulation in atmospheric environments in the infrared-ultraviolet frequency range, are described. With respect to the previously developed PREMAR code, besides plane multilayers, spherical multilayers and finite sequences of vertical layers, each one with its own atmospheric behaviour, are foreseen in the new code, together with the refraction phenomenon, so that long range, highly slanted paths can now be more faithfully taken into account. A zenithal angular dependence of the albedo coefficient has moreover been introduced. Lidar systems, with spatially independent source and telescope, are allowed again to be simulated, and, in this latest version of the code, sensitivity analyses to be performed. According to this last feasibility, consequences on radiation transport of small perturbations in physical components of the atmospheric environment may be analyze and the related effects on searched results estimated. The availability of a library of physical data (reaction coefficients, phase functions and refraction indexes) is required by the code, providing the essential features of the environment of interest needed of the Monte Carlo simulation. Variance reducing techniques have been enhanced in the Premar-2 code, by introducing, for instance, a local forced collision technique, especially apt to be used in Lidar system simulations. Encouraging comparisons between code and experimental results carried out at the Brasimone Centre of ENEA, have so far been obtained, even if further checks of the code are to be performed [it

  16. The Premar Code for the Monte Carlo Simulation of Radiation Transport In the Atmosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cupini, E.; Borgia, M.G.; Premuda, M.

    1997-03-01

    The Montecarlo code PREMAR is described, which allows the user to simulate the radiation transport in the atmosphere, in the ultraviolet-infrared frequency interval. A plan multilayer geometry is at present foreseen by the code, witch albedo possibility at the lower boundary surface. For a given monochromatic point source, the main quantities computed by the code are the absorption spatial distributions of aerosol and molecules, together with the related atmospheric transmittances. Moreover, simulation of of Lidar experiments are foreseen by the code, the source and telescope fields of view being assigned. To build-up the appropriate probability distributions, an input data library is assumed to be read by the code. For this purpose the radiance-transmittance LOWTRAN-7 code has been conveniently adapted as a source of the library so as to exploit the richness of information of the code for a large variety of atmospheric simulations. Results of applications of the PREMAR code are finally presented, with special reference to simulations of Lidar system and radiometer experiments carried out at the Brasimone ENEA Centre by the Environment Department

  17. Comparison of three ice cloud optical schemes in climate simulations with community atmospheric model version 5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Wenjie; Peng, Yiran; Wang, Bin; Yi, Bingqi; Lin, Yanluan; Li, Jiangnan

    2018-05-01

    A newly implemented Baum-Yang scheme for simulating ice cloud optical properties is compared with existing schemes (Mitchell and Fu schemes) in a standalone radiative transfer model and in the global climate model (GCM) Community Atmospheric Model Version 5 (CAM5). This study systematically analyzes the effect of different ice cloud optical schemes on global radiation and climate by a series of simulations with a simplified standalone radiative transfer model, atmospheric GCM CAM5, and a comprehensive coupled climate model. Results from the standalone radiative model show that Baum-Yang scheme yields generally weaker effects of ice cloud on temperature profiles both in shortwave and longwave spectrum. CAM5 simulations indicate that Baum-Yang scheme in place of Mitchell/Fu scheme tends to cool the upper atmosphere and strengthen the thermodynamic instability in low- and mid-latitudes, which could intensify the Hadley circulation and dehydrate the subtropics. When CAM5 is coupled with a slab ocean model to include simplified air-sea interaction, reduced downward longwave flux to surface in Baum-Yang scheme mitigates ice-albedo feedback in the Arctic as well as water vapor and cloud feedbacks in low- and mid-latitudes, resulting in an overall temperature decrease by 3.0/1.4 °C globally compared with Mitchell/Fu schemes. Radiative effect and climate feedback of the three ice cloud optical schemes documented in this study can be referred for future improvements on ice cloud simulation in CAM5.

  18. Development of a Wind Plant Large-Eddy Simulation with Measurement-Driven Atmospheric Inflow: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Quon, Eliot; Churchfield, Matthew; Cheung, Lawrence; Kern, Stefan

    2017-02-01

    This paper details the development of an aeroelastic wind plant model with large-eddy simulation (LES). The chosen LES solver is the Simulator for Wind Farm Applications (SOWFA) based on the OpenFOAM framework, coupled to NREL's comprehensive aeroelastic analysis tool, FAST. An atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) precursor simulation was constructed based on assessments of meteorological tower, lidar, and radar data over a 3-hour window. This precursor was tuned to the specific atmospheric conditions that occurred both prior to and during the measurement campaign, enabling capture of a night-to-day transition in the turbulent ABL. In the absence of height-varying temperature measurements, spatially averaged radar data were sufficient to characterize the atmospheric stability of the wind plant in terms of the shear profile, and near-ground temperature sensors provided a reasonable estimate of the ground heating rate describing the morning transition. A full aeroelastic simulation was then performed for a subset of turbines within the wind plant, driven by the precursor. Analysis of two turbines within the array, one directly waked by the other, demonstrated good agreement with measured time-averaged loads.

  19. Development of a Wind Plant Large-Eddy Simulation with Measurement-Driven Atmospheric Inflow

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Quon, Eliot W.; Churchfield, Matthew J.; Cheung, Lawrence; Kern, Stefan

    2017-01-09

    This paper details the development of an aeroelastic wind plant model with large-eddy simulation (LES). The chosen LES solver is the Simulator for Wind Farm Applications (SOWFA) based on the OpenFOAM framework, coupled to NREL's comprehensive aeroelastic analysis tool, FAST. An atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) precursor simulation was constructed based on assessments of meteorological tower, lidar, and radar data over a 3-hour window. This precursor was tuned to the specific atmospheric conditions that occurred both prior to and during the measurement campaign, enabling capture of a night-to-day transition in the turbulent ABL. In the absence of height-varying temperature measurements, spatially averaged radar data were sufficient to characterize the atmospheric stability of the wind plant in terms of the shear profile, and near-ground temperature sensors provided a reasonable estimate of the ground heating rate describing the morning transition. A full aeroelastic simulation was then performed for a subset of turbines within the wind plant, driven by the precursor. Analysis of two turbines within the array, one directly waked by the other, demonstrated good agreement with measured time-averaged loads.

  20. A random walk model to simulate the atmospheric dispersion of radionuclide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuo, Jun; Huang, Liuxing; Niu, Shengli; Xie, Honggang; Kuang, Feihong

    2018-01-01

    To investigate the atmospheric dispersion of radionuclide in large-medium scale, a numerical simulation method based on random walk model for radionuclide atmospheric dispersion was established in the paper. The route of radionuclide migration and concentration distribution of radionuclide can be calculated out by using the method with the real-time or historical meteorological fields. In the simulation, a plume of radionuclide is treated as a lot of particles independent of each other. The particles move randomly by the fluctuations of turbulence, and disperse, so as to enlarge the volume of the plume and dilute the concentration of radionuclide. The dispersion of the plume over time is described by the variance of the particles. Through statistical analysis, the relationships between variance of the particles and radionuclide dispersion characteristics can be derived. The main mechanisms considered in the physical model are: (1) advection of radionuclide by mean air motion, (2) mixing of radionuclide by atmospheric turbulence, (3) dry and wet deposition, (4) disintegration. A code named RADES was developed according the method. And then, the European Tracer Experiment (ETEX) in 1994 is simulated by the RADES and FLEXPART codes, the simulation results of the concentration distribution of tracer are in good agreement with the experimental data.

  1. Digital simulation of a communication link for Pioneer Saturn Uranus atmospheric entry probe, part 1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinrichs, C. A.

    1975-01-01

    A digital simulation study is presented for a candidate modulator/demodulator design in an atmospheric scintillation environment with Doppler, Doppler rate, and signal attenuation typical of the conditions of an outer planet atmospheric probe. The simulation results indicate that the mean channel error rate with and without scintillation are similar to theoretical characterizations of the link. The simulation gives information for calculating other channel statistics and generates a quantized symbol stream on magnetic tape from which error correction decoding is analyzed. Results from the magnetic tape data analyses are also included. The receiver and bit synchronizer are modeled in the simulation at the level of hardware component parameters rather than at the loop equation level and individual hardware parameters are identified. The atmospheric scintillation amplitude and phase are modeled independently. Normal and log normal amplitude processes are studied. In each case the scintillations are low pass filtered. The receiver performance is given for a range of signal to noise ratios with and without the effects of scintillation. The performance is reviewed for critical reciever parameter variations.

  2. Simulation Tool for Dielectric Barrier Discharge Plasma Actuators at Atmospheric and Sub-Atmospheric Pressures: SBIR Phase I Final Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Likhanskii, Alexandre

    2012-01-01

    This report is the final report of a SBIR Phase I project. It is identical to the final report submitted, after some proprietary information of administrative nature has been removed. The development of a numerical simulation tool for dielectric barrier discharge (DBD) plasma actuator is reported. The objectives of the project were to analyze and predict DBD operation at wide range of ambient gas pressures. It overcomes the limitations of traditional DBD codes which are limited to low-speed applications and have weak prediction capabilities. The software tool allows DBD actuator analysis and prediction for subsonic to hypersonic flow regime. The simulation tool is based on the VORPAL code developed by Tech-X Corporation. VORPAL's capability of modeling DBD plasma actuator at low pressures (0.1 to 10 torr) using kinetic plasma modeling approach, and at moderate to atmospheric pressures (1 to 10 atm) using hydrodynamic plasma modeling approach, were demonstrated. In addition, results of experiments with pulsed+bias DBD configuration that were performed for validation purposes are reported.

  3. Multi-model ensemble simulations of low flows in Europe under a 1.5, 2, and 3 degree global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marx, A.; Kumar, R.; Thober, S.; Zink, M.; Wanders, N.; Wood, E. F.; Pan, M.; Sheffield, J.; Samaniego, L. E.

    2017-12-01

    There is growing evidence that climate change will alter water availability in Europe. Here, we investigate how hydrological low flows are affected under different levels of future global warming (i.e., 1.5, 2 and 3 K). The analysis is based on a multi-model ensemble of 45 hydrological simulations based on three RCPs (rcp2p6, rcp6p0, rcp8p5), five CMIP5 GCMs (GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, NorESM1-M) and three state-of-the-art hydrological models (HMs: mHM, Noah-MP, and PCR-GLOBWB). High resolution model results are available at the unprecedented spatial resolution of 5 km across the pan-European domain at daily temporal resolution. Low river flow is described as the percentile of daily streamflow that is exceeded 90% of the time. It is determined separately for each GCM/HM combinations and the warming scenarios. The results show that the change signal amplifies with increasing warming levels. Low flows decrease in the Mediterranean, while they increase in the Alpine and Northern regions. In the Mediterranean, the level of warming amplifies the signal from -12% under 1.5 K to -35% under 3 K global warming largely due to the projected decreases in annual precipitation. In contrast, the signal is amplified from +22% (1.5 K) to +45% (3 K) because of the reduced snow melt contribution. The changes in low flows are significant for regions with relatively large change signals and under higher levels of warming. Nevertheless, it is not possible to distinguish climate induced differences in low flows between 1.5 and 2 K warming because of the large variability inherent in the multi-model ensemble. The contribution by the GCMs to the uncertainty in the Alpine and Northern region as well as the Mediterranean, the uncertainty contribution by the HMs is partly higher than those by the GCMs due to different representations of processes such as snow, soil moisture and evapotranspiration.

  4. World Music Ensemble: Kulintang

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beegle, Amy C.

    2012-01-01

    As instrumental world music ensembles such as steel pan, mariachi, gamelan and West African drums are becoming more the norm than the exception in North American school music programs, there are other world music ensembles just starting to gain popularity in particular parts of the United States. The kulintang ensemble, a drum and gong ensemble…

  5. Ensemble averaged multi-phase Eulerian model for columnar/equiaxed solidification of a binary alloy: II. Simulation of the columnar-to-equiaxed transition (CET)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ciobanas, A I; Fautrelle, Y

    2007-01-01

    A new multi-phase Eulerian model for the columnar and equiaxed dendritic solidification has been developed. In this paper we first focus on the numerical simulation of quasi-steady solidification experiments in order to obtain corresponding CET maps. We have identified three main zones on the CET map: the pure columnar, the pure equiaxed zone and finally the mixed columnar+equiaxed zone. The mixed c/e zone was further quantified by means of a columnar fraction ε c which quantifies in a rigorous way the two coexisting structures. Since it intrinsically includes the solutal and the mechanical blocking effects, the new ensemble model unifies the semi-empirical Hunt's approach (pure mechanical blocking mechanism) and the Martorano et al approach (pure solutal blocking mechanism). Secondly the present model was used to simulate unidirectional solidification experiments. It was found that the columnar front evolved in a quasi-steady state until a time very close to the critical CET moment. It is also found that the equiaxed nucleation undercooling is close to the maximum columnar dendrite tip undercooling and that the CET is virtually independent of the equiaxed zone ahead of the columnar front. If the equiaxed zone is not taken into account it is observed that the columnar front velocity exhibits a sudden increase at the beginning of the solidification followed by a quasi-plateau corresponding to a quasi-state at the columnar tips and finally, above a critical time, an oscillatory evolution. The beginning of the oscillatory evolution of the columnar front was well correlated with the CET position measured in the experiments. We also find that this oscillatory evolution of the columnar front is very favourable for the fragmentation of the columnar dendrites and thus for the CET. In this respect, it seems that the unsteady regime of the columnar front with respect to the local cooling conditions represents the main cause for the CET phenomena, at least for the non

  6. Atmospheric Dispersion Simulation for Level 3 PSA at Ulchin Nuclear Site using a PUFF model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Seung Jun; Han, Seok-Jung; Jeong, Hyojoon; Jang, Seung-Cheol [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    Air dispersion prediction is a key in the level 3 PSA to predict radiation releases into the environment for preparing an effective strategy for an evacuation as a basis of the emergency preparedness. To predict the atmospheric dispersion accurately, the specific conditions of the radiation release location should be considered. There are various level 3 PSA tools and MACSS2 is one of the widely used level 3 PSA tools in many countries including Korea. Due to the characteristics of environmental conditions in Korea, it should be demonstrated that environmental conditions of Korea nuclear sites can be appropriately illustrated by the tool. In Korea, because all nuclear power plants are located on coasts, sea and land breezes might be a significant factor. The objectives of this work is to simulate the atmospheric dispersion for Ulchin nuclear site in Korea using a PUFF model and to generate the data which can be used for the comparison with that of PLUME model. A nuclear site has own atmospheric dispersion characteristics. Especially in Korea, nuclear sites are located at coasts and it is expected that see and land breeze effects are relatively high. In this work, the atmospheric dispersion at Ulchin nuclear site was simulated to evaluate the effect of see and land breezes in four seasons. In the simulation results, it was observed that the wind direction change with time has a large effect on atmospheric dispersion. If the result of a PLUME model is more conservative than most severe case of a PUFF model, then the PLUME model could be used for Korea nuclear sites in terms of safety assessment.

  7. Simulation of submillimetre atmospheric spectra for characterising potential ground-based remote sensing observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. C. Turner

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The submillimetre is an understudied region of the Earth's atmospheric electromagnetic spectrum. Prior technological gaps and relatively high opacity due to the prevalence of rotational water vapour lines at these wavelengths have slowed progress from a ground-based remote sensing perspective; however, emerging superconducting detector technologies in the fields of astronomy offer the potential to address key atmospheric science challenges with new instrumental methods. A site study, with a focus on the polar regions, is performed to assess theoretical feasibility by simulating the downwelling (zenith angle = 0° clear-sky submillimetre spectrum from 30 mm (10 GHz to 150 µm (2000 GHz at six locations under annual mean, summer, winter, daytime, night-time and low-humidity conditions. Vertical profiles of temperature, pressure and 28 atmospheric gases are constructed by combining radiosonde, meteorological reanalysis and atmospheric chemistry model data. The sensitivity of the simulated spectra to the choice of water vapour continuum model and spectroscopic line database is explored. For the atmospheric trace species hypobromous acid (HOBr, hydrogen bromide (HBr, perhydroxyl radical (HO2 and nitrous oxide (N2O the emission lines producing the largest change in brightness temperature are identified. Signal strengths, centre frequencies, bandwidths, estimated minimum integration times and maximum receiver noise temperatures are determined for all cases. HOBr, HBr and HO2 produce brightness temperature peaks in the mK to µK range, whereas the N2O peaks are in the K range. The optimal submillimetre remote sensing lines for the four species are shown to vary significantly between location and scenario, strengthening the case for future hyperspectral instruments that measure over a broad wavelength range. The techniques presented here provide a framework that can be applied to additional species of interest and taken forward to simulate

  8. Influence of blocking on Northern European and Western Russian heatwaves in large climate model ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaller, N.; Sillmann, J.; Anstey, J.; Fischer, E. M.; Grams, C. M.; Russo, S.

    2018-05-01

    Better preparedness for summer heatwaves could mitigate their adverse effects on society. This can potentially be attained through an increased understanding of the relationship between heatwaves and one of their main dynamical drivers, atmospheric blocking. In the 1979–2015 period, we find that there is a significant correlation between summer heatwave magnitudes and the number of days influenced by atmospheric blocking in Northern Europe and Western Russia. Using three large global climate model ensembles, we find similar correlations, indicating that these three models are able to represent the relationship between extreme temperature and atmospheric blocking, despite having biases in their simulation of individual climate variables such as temperature or geopotential height. Our results emphasize the need to use large ensembles of different global climate models as single realizations do not always capture this relationship. The three large ensembles further suggest that the relationship between summer heatwaves and atmospheric blocking will not change in the future. This could be used to statistically model heatwaves with atmospheric blocking as a covariate and aid decision-makers in planning disaster risk reduction and adaptation to climate change.

  9. The influence of atmospheric grid resolution in a climate model-forced ice sheet simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lofverstrom, Marcus; Liakka, Johan

    2018-04-01

    Coupled climate-ice sheet simulations have been growing in popularity in recent years. Experiments of this type are however challenging as ice sheets evolve over multi-millennial timescales, which is beyond the practical integration limit of most Earth system models. A common method to increase model throughput is to trade resolution for computational efficiency (compromise accuracy for speed). Here we analyze how the resolution of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) influences the simulation quality in a stand-alone ice sheet model. Four identical AGCM simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) were run at different horizontal resolutions: T85 (1.4°), T42 (2.8°), T31 (3.8°), and T21 (5.6°). These simulations were subsequently used as forcing of an ice sheet model. While the T85 climate forcing reproduces the LGM ice sheets to a high accuracy, the intermediate resolution cases (T42 and T31) fail to build the Eurasian ice sheet. The T21 case fails in both Eurasia and North America. Sensitivity experiments using different surface mass balance parameterizations improve the simulations of the Eurasian ice sheet in the T42 case, but the compromise is a substantial ice buildup in Siberia. The T31 and T21 cases do not improve in the same way in Eurasia, though the latter simulates the continent-wide Laurentide ice sheet in North America. The difficulty to reproduce the LGM ice sheets in the T21 case is in broad agreement with previous studies using low-resolution atmospheric models, and is caused by a substantial deterioration of the model climate between the T31 and T21 resolutions. It is speculated that this deficiency may demonstrate a fundamental problem with using low-resolution atmospheric models in these types of experiments.

  10. Interaction of oxides of nitrogen and aromatic hydrocarbons under simulated atmospheric conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Obrien, R.J.; Green, P.J.; Doty, R.A.; Vanderzanden, J.W.; Easton, R.R.; Irwin, R.P.

    1979-01-01

    The reactions of nitrogen oxides with aromatic hydrocarbons under simulated atmospheric conditions are investigated. Gaseous reaction products formed when toluene is irradiated under simulated atmospheric conditions in the presence of nitrogen oxides were analyzed by gas chromatography. Reaction products detected include acetylene, water, acetaldehyde, acetone, toluene, benzaldehyde, ortho-, meta- and para-cresol, benzyl nitrate and meta- and para-nitrotoluene. Reaction mechanisms yielding the various products are illustrated. The assumption that all the nitrogen oxides observed to be lost from the reaction products can be accounted for by nitric acid formation in the absence of ozone formation is verified by a model in which the hydroxyl radical is assumed to be the only means of removing toluene. Under conditions in which ozone is formed, nitrogen oxide loss is accounted for by ozone formation in addition to nitric acid formation

  11. Hydrometeorological multi-model ensemble simulations of the 4 November 2011 flash flood event in Genoa, Italy, in the framework of the DRIHM project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Hally

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The e-Science environment developed in the framework of the EU-funded DRIHM project was used to demonstrate its ability to provide relevant, meaningful hydrometeorological forecasts. This was illustrated for the tragic case of 4 November 2011, when Genoa, Italy, was flooded as the result of heavy, convective precipitation that inundated the Bisagno catchment. The Meteorological Model Bridge (MMB, an innovative software component developed within the DRIHM project for the interoperability of meteorological and hydrological models, is a key component of the DRIHM e-Science environment. The MMB allowed three different rainfall-discharge models (DRiFt, RIBS and HBV to be driven by four mesoscale limited-area atmospheric models (WRF-NMM, WRF-ARW, Meso-NH and AROME and a downscaling algorithm (RainFARM in a seamless fashion. In addition to this multi-model configuration, some of the models were run in probabilistic mode, thus giving a comprehensive account of modelling errors and a very large amount of likely hydrometeorological scenarios (> 1500. The multi-model approach proved to be necessary because, whilst various aspects of the event were successfully simulated by different models, none of the models reproduced all of these aspects correctly. It was shown that the resulting set of simulations helped identify key atmospheric processes responsible for the large rainfall accumulations over the Bisagno basin. The DRIHM e-Science environment facilitated an evaluation of the sensitivity to atmospheric and hydrological modelling errors. This showed that both had a significant impact on predicted discharges, the former being larger than the latter. Finally, the usefulness of the set of hydrometeorological simulations was assessed from a flash flood early-warning perspective.

  12. Simulated effect of calcification feedback on atmospheric CO2 and ocean acidification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Han; Cao, Long

    2016-01-01

    Ocean uptake of anthropogenic CO2 reduces pH and saturation state of calcium carbonate materials of seawater, which could reduce the calcification rate of some marine organisms, triggering a negative feedback on the growth of atmospheric CO2. We quantify the effect of this CO2-calcification feedback by conducting a series of Earth system model simulations that incorporate different parameterization schemes describing the dependence of calcification rate on saturation state of CaCO3. In a scenario with SRES A2 CO2 emission until 2100 and zero emission afterwards, by year 3500, in the simulation without CO2-calcification feedback, model projects an accumulated ocean CO2 uptake of 1462 PgC, atmospheric CO2 of 612 ppm, and surface pH of 7.9. Inclusion of CO2-calcification feedback increases ocean CO2 uptake by 9 to 285 PgC, reduces atmospheric CO2 by 4 to 70 ppm, and mitigates the reduction in surface pH by 0.003 to 0.06, depending on the form of parameterization scheme used. It is also found that the effect of CO2-calcification feedback on ocean carbon uptake is comparable and could be much larger than the effect from CO2-induced warming. Our results highlight the potentially important role CO2-calcification feedback plays in ocean carbon cycle and projections of future atmospheric CO2 concentrations. PMID:26838480

  13. Impacts of climate change on peanut yield in China simulated by CMIP5 multi-model ensemble projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Hanqing; Tian, Zhan; Zhong, Honglin; Fan, Dongli; Shi, Runhe; Niu, Yilong; He, Xiaogang; Chen, Maosi

    2017-09-01

    Peanut is one of the major edible vegetable oil crops in China, whose growth and yield are very sensitive to climate change. In addition, agriculture climate resources are expected to be redistributed under climate change, which will further influence the growth, development, cropping patterns, distribution and production of peanut. In this study, we used the DSSAT-Peanut model to examine the climate change impacts on peanut production, oil industry and oil food security in China. This model is first calibrated using site observations including 31 years' (1981-2011) climate, soil and agronomy data. This calibrated model is then employed to simulate the future peanut yield based on 20 climate scenarios from 5 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) developed by the InterSectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) driven by 4 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Results indicate that the irrigated peanut yield will decrease 2.6% under the RCP 2.6 scenario, 9.9% under the RCP 4.5 scenario and 29% under the RCP 8.5 scenario, respectively. Similarly, the rain-fed peanut yield will also decrease, with a 2.5% reduction under the RCP 2.6 scenario, 11.5% reduction under the RCP 4.5 scenario and 30% reduction under the RCP 8.5 scenario, respectively.

  14. Large-eddy simulation of stratified atmospheric flows with the CFD code Code-Saturne

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dall'Ozzo, Cedric

    2013-01-01

    Large-eddy simulation (LES) of the physical processes in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) remains a complex subject. LES models have difficulties to capture the evolution of the turbulence in different conditions of stratification. Consequently, LES of the whole diurnal cycle of the ABL including convective situations in daytime and stable situations in the nighttime is seldom documented. The simulation of the stable atmospheric boundary layer which is characterized by small eddies and by weak and sporadic turbulence is especially difficult. Therefore The LES ability to well reproduce real meteorological conditions, particularly in stable situations, is studied with the CFD code developed by EDF R and D, Code-Saturne. The first study consist in validate LES on a quasi-steady state convective case with homogeneous terrain. The influence of the sub-grid-scale models (Smagorinsky model, Germano-Lilly model, Wong-Lilly model and Wall-Adapting Local Eddy-viscosity model) and the sensitivity to the parametrization method on the mean fields, flux and variances are discussed. In a second study, the diurnal cycle of the ABL during Wangara experiment is simulated. The deviation from the measurement is weak during the day, so this work is focused on the difficulties met during the night to simulate the stable atmospheric boundary layer. The impact of the different sub-grid-scale models and the sensitivity to the Smagorinsky constant are been analysed. By coupling radiative forcing with LES, the consequences of infra-red and solar radiation on the nocturnal low level jet and on thermal gradient, close to the surface, are exposed. More, enhancement of the domain resolution to the turbulence intensity and the strong atmospheric stability during the Wangara experiment are analysed. Finally, a study of the numerical oscillations inherent to Code-Saturne is realized in order to decrease their effects. (author) [fr

  15. A new plant chamber facility PLUS coupled to the atmospheric simulation chamber SAPHIR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hohaus, T.; Kuhn, U.; Andres, S.; Kaminski, M.; Rohrer, F.; Tillmann, R.; Wahner, A.; Wegener, R.; Yu, Z.; Kiendler-Scharr, A.

    2015-11-01

    A new PLant chamber Unit for Simulation (PLUS) for use with the atmosphere simulation chamber SAPHIR (Simulation of Atmospheric PHotochemistry In a large Reaction Chamber) has been build and characterized at the Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Germany. The PLUS chamber is an environmentally controlled flow through plant chamber. Inside PLUS the natural blend of biogenic emissions of trees are mixed with synthetic air and are transferred to the SAPHIR chamber where the atmospheric chemistry and the impact of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC) can be studied in detail. In PLUS all important enviromental parameters (e.g. temperature, PAR, soil RH etc.) are well-controlled. The gas exchange volume of 9.32 m3 which encloses the stem and the leafes of the plants is constructed such that gases are exposed to FEP Teflon film and other Teflon surfaces only to minimize any potential losses of BVOCs in the chamber. Solar radiation is simulated using 15 LED panels which have an emission strength up to 800 μmol m-2 s-1. Results of the initial characterization experiments are presented in detail. Background concentrations, mixing inside the gas exchange volume, and transfer rate of volatile organic compounds (VOC) through PLUS under different humidity conditions are explored. Typical plant characteristics such as light and temperature dependent BVOC emissions are studied using six Quercus Ilex trees and compared to previous studies. Results of an initial ozonolysis experiment of BVOC emissions from Quercus Ilex at typical atmospheric concentrations inside SAPHIR are presented to demonstrate a typical experimental set up and the utility of the newly added plant chamber.

  16. A new plant chamber facility, PLUS, coupled to the atmosphere simulation chamber SAPHIR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hohaus, T.; Kuhn, U.; Andres, S.; Kaminski, M.; Rohrer, F.; Tillmann, R.; Wahner, A.; Wegener, R.; Yu, Z.; Kiendler-Scharr, A.

    2016-03-01

    A new PLant chamber Unit for Simulation (PLUS) for use with the atmosphere simulation chamber SAPHIR (Simulation of Atmospheric PHotochemistry In a large Reaction Chamber) has been built and characterized at the Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Germany. The PLUS chamber is an environmentally controlled flow-through plant chamber. Inside PLUS the natural blend of biogenic emissions of trees is mixed with synthetic air and transferred to the SAPHIR chamber, where the atmospheric chemistry and the impact of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) can be studied in detail. In PLUS all important environmental parameters (e.g., temperature, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), soil relative humidity (RH)) are well controlled. The gas exchange volume of 9.32 m3 which encloses the stem and the leaves of the plants is constructed such that gases are exposed to only fluorinated ethylene propylene (FEP) Teflon film and other Teflon surfaces to minimize any potential losses of BVOCs in the chamber. Solar radiation is simulated using 15 light-emitting diode (LED) panels, which have an emission strength up to 800 µmol m-2 s-1. Results of the initial characterization experiments are presented in detail. Background concentrations, mixing inside the gas exchange volume, and transfer rate of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) through PLUS under different humidity conditions are explored. Typical plant characteristics such as light- and temperature- dependent BVOC emissions are studied using six Quercus ilex trees and compared to previous studies. Results of an initial ozonolysis experiment of BVOC emissions from Quercus ilex at typical atmospheric concentrations inside SAPHIR are presented to demonstrate a typical experimental setup and the utility of the newly added plant chamber.

  17. Simulation of semi-artificial interaction events of cosmic radiation in the atmosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferreira, L.C.A.

    1986-01-01

    A simulation of artifitial A-jets was performed, using the data of observed C-jets, aiming to study the atmospheric interactions. A comparative study on artifitial A-jets with observed A-jets, considering initially, only one interaction and then, introducing the possibility of successive interactions, is presented. A process denominated ''descascatizacao'' for one interaction stage is evaluated. (M.C.K.) [pt

  18. Atmospheric dispersion simulations of volcanic gas from Miyake Island by SPEEDI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagai, Haruyasu; Furuno, Akiko; Terada, Hiroaki; Umeyama, Nobuaki; Yamazawa, Hiromi; Chino, Masamichi

    2001-03-01

    Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute is advancing the study for prediction of material circulation in the environment to cope with environmental pollution, based on SPEEDI (System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information) and WSPEEDI (Worldwide version of SPEEDI), which are originally developed aiming at real-time prediction of atmospheric dispersion of radioactive substances accidentally released from nuclear facility. As a part of this study, dispersion simulation of volcanic gas erupted from Miyake Island is put into practice. After the stench incident at the west Kanto District on 28 August 2000 caused by volcanic gas from Miyake Island, the following simulations dealing with atmospheric dispersion of volcanic gas from Miyake Island have been carried out. (1) Retrospective simulation to analyze examine the mechanism of the transport of high concentration volcanic gas to the west Kanto District on 28 August and to estimate the release amount of volcanic gas. (2) Retrospective simulation to analyze the mechanism of the transport of volcanic gas to Tokai and Kansai districts in a case of stench incident on 13 September. (3) Automated real-time simulation from the acquisition of meteorological data to the output of figures for operational prediction of the transport of volcanic gas to Tokai and Kanto districts. This report describes the details of these studies. (author)

  19. Differences in rain rate intensities between TRMM observations and community atmosphere model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Yi; Bowman, Kenneth P.; Jackson, Charles

    2007-01-01

    Precipitation related latent heating is important in driving the atmospheric general circulation and in generating intraseasonal to decadal atmospheric variability. Our ability to project future climate change, especially trends in costly precipitation extremes, hinges upon whether coupled GCMs capture processes that affect precipitation characteristics. Our study compares the tropical-subtropical precipitation characteristics of simulations by the NCAR CAM3.1 atmospheric GCM and observations derived from the NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. Despite a fairly good simulation of the annual mean rain rate, CAM rains about 10-50% more often than the real world and fails to capture heavy rainfall associated with deep convective systems over subtropical South America and U.S. Southern Plains. When it rains, there is a likelihood of 0.96-1.0 that it rains lightly in the model, compared to values of 0.84-1.0 in TRMM data. On the other hand, the likelihood of the occurrence of moderate to heavy rainfall is an order of magnitude higher in observations (0.12-0.2) than that in the model (model compensates for the lack of heavy precipitation through raining more frequently within the light rain category, which leads to an annual rainfall amount close to what is observed. CAM captures the qualitative change of rain rate PDF from a "dry" oceanic to a "wet" oceanic region, but it fails to simulate the change of precipitation characteristics from an oceanic region to a land region where thunderstorm rainfall dominates.

  20. Compiled records of carbon isotopes in atmospheric CO2 for historical simulations in CMIP6

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Graven

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The isotopic composition of carbon (Δ14C and δ13C in atmospheric CO2 and in oceanic and terrestrial carbon reservoirs is influenced by anthropogenic emissions and by natural carbon exchanges, which can respond to and drive changes in climate. Simulations of 14C and 13C in the ocean and terrestrial components of Earth system models (ESMs present opportunities for model evaluation and for investigation of carbon cycling, including anthropogenic CO2 emissions and uptake. The use of carbon isotopes in novel evaluation of the ESMs' component ocean and terrestrial biosphere models and in new analyses of historical changes may improve predictions of future changes in the carbon cycle and climate system. We compile existing data to produce records of Δ14C and δ13C in atmospheric CO2 for the historical period 1850–2015. The primary motivation for this compilation is to provide the atmospheric boundary condition for historical simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6 for models simulating carbon isotopes in the ocean or terrestrial biosphere. The data may also be useful for other carbon cycle modelling activities.

  1. An analytical model for radioactive pollutant release simulation in the atmospheric boundary layer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weymar, Guilherme J.; Vilhena, Marco T.; Bodmann, Bardo E.J.; Buske, Daniela; Quadros, Regis

    2013-01-01

    Simulations of emission of radioactive substances in the atmosphere from the Brazilian nuclear power plant Angra 1 are a necessary tool for control and elaboration of emergency plans as a preventive action for possible accidents. In the present work we present an analytical solution for radioactive pollutant dispersion in the atmosphere, solving the time-dependent three-dimensional advection-diffusion equation. The experiment here used as a reference in the simulations consisted of the controlled releases of radioactive tritiated water vapor from the meteorological tower close to the power plant at Itaorna Beach. The wind profile was determined using experimental meteorological data and the micrometeorological parameters were calculated from empirical equations obtained in the literature. We report on a novel analytical formulation for the concentration of products of a radioactive chain released in the atmospheric boundary layer and solve the set of coupled equations for each chain radionuclide by the GILTT solution, assuming the decay of all progenitors radionuclide for each equation as source term. Further we report on numerical simulations, as an explicit but fictitious example and consider three radionuclides in the radioactive chain of Uranium 235. (author)

  2. Compiled records of carbon isotopes in atmospheric CO2 for historical simulations in CMIP6

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graven, Heather; Allison, Colin E.; Etheridge, David M.; Hammer, Samuel; Keeling, Ralph F.; Levin, Ingeborg; Meijer, Harro A. J.; Rubino, Mauro; Tans, Pieter P.; Trudinger, Cathy M.; Vaughn, Bruce H.; White, James W. C.

    2017-12-01

    The isotopic composition of carbon (Δ14C and δ13C) in atmospheric CO2 and in oceanic and terrestrial carbon reservoirs is influenced by anthropogenic emissions and by natural carbon exchanges, which can respond to and drive changes in climate. Simulations of 14C and 13C in the ocean and terrestrial components of Earth system models (ESMs) present opportunities for model evaluation and for investigation of carbon cycling, including anthropogenic CO2 emissions and uptake. The use of carbon isotopes in novel evaluation of the ESMs' component ocean and terrestrial biosphere models and in new analyses of historical changes may improve predictions of future changes in the carbon cycle and climate system. We compile existing data to produce records of Δ14C and δ13C in atmospheric CO2 for the historical period 1850-2015. The primary motivation for this compilation is to provide the atmospheric boundary condition for historical simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) for models simulating carbon isotopes in the ocean or terrestrial biosphere. The data may also be useful for other carbon cycle modelling activities.

  3. An analytical model for radioactive pollutant release simulation in the atmospheric boundary layer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weymar, Guilherme J.; Vilhena, Marco T.; Bodmann, Bardo E.J., E-mail: guicefetrs@gmail.com, E-mail: mtmbvilhena@gmail.com, E-mail: bejbodmann@gmail.com [Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil). Programa de Pos-Graduacao em Engenharia Mecanica; Buske, Daniela; Quadros, Regis, E-mail: danielabuske@gmail.com, E-mail: quadros99@gmail.com [Universidade Federal de Pelotas (UFPel), Capao do Leao, RS (Brazil). Programa de Pos-Graduacao em Modelagem Matematica

    2013-07-01

    Simulations of emission of radioactive substances in the atmosphere from the Brazilian nuclear power plant Angra 1 are a necessary tool for control and elaboration of emergency plans as a preventive action for possible accidents. In the present work we present an analytical solution for radioactive pollutant dispersion in the atmosphere, solving the time-dependent three-dimensional advection-diffusion equation. The experiment here used as a reference in the simulations consisted of the controlled releases of radioactive tritiated water vapor from the meteorological tower close to the power plant at Itaorna Beach. The wind profile was determined using experimental meteorological data and the micrometeorological parameters were calculated from empirical equations obtained in the literature. We report on a novel analytical formulation for the concentration of products of a radioactive chain released in the atmospheric boundary layer and solve the set of coupled equations for each chain radionuclide by the GILTT solution, assuming the decay of all progenitors radionuclide for each equation as source term. Further we report on numerical simulations, as an explicit but fictitious example and consider three radionuclides in the radioactive chain of Uranium 235. (author)

  4. Study of irradiation of flash lightning type in a Titan simulated atmosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosa C, J.G. De la

    2001-01-01

    Titan is the greatest satellite of the Saturn planet and the unique moon of the Solar System which presents a dense atmosphere constituted by nitrogen, methane and traces of hydrocarbons and nitriles. Constantly it is bombarded by different energy sources which interacting with the atmosphere cause countless of chemical reactions which have giving origin to the synthesis of organic molecules from its formation since 4.5 thousand millions of years ago. The electric activity was not detected in the satellite when the space probe Voyager I had its nearest match with Titan in November 1980, however, due to the presence of methane clouds rain and of convective activity in the troposphere of the satellite, it is thought in the possible existence of electrical activity in this. In this work it is studied the production of gaseous compounds generated by irradiations type flash lightning in the Titan simulated atmosphere constituted by nitrogen and methane. The lightning are imitated by laser induced plasma (LIP) with similar physical properties to the naturals produced in the Earth. The separation and identification of the organic compounds generated by simulated lightning s were carried out by attached methods of analysis such as the Gas chromatography, Infrared spectroscopy with Fourier transform (FTIR-S) and Mass spectroscopy (MS). The compounds which were identified are: hydrocarbons and nitriles, some of them already have been identified in Titan as well as the hydrogen cyanide (HCN), acetylene, etilene and cyanoacetylene. Moreover we studied the influence that different parameters of irradiation have in the production of organic molecules generated submitting to discharges type lightning the simulated atmosphere of Titan. It was realized an estimation of the available energy in the satellite which could be vanished as discharges type lightning. By means of a model based on conditions of thermodynamic equilibria it was calculated the temperature to which are freeze

  5. Atmosphere Re-Entry Simulation Using Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesco Pellicani

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Hypersonic re-entry vehicles aerothermodynamic investigations provide fundamental information to other important disciplines like materials and structures, assisting the development of thermal protection systems (TPS efficient and with a low weight. In the transitional flow regime, where thermal and chemical equilibrium is almost absent, a new numerical method for such studies has been introduced, the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC numerical technique. The acceptance and applicability of the DSMC method have increased significantly in the 50 years since its invention thanks to the increase in computer speed and to the parallel computing. Anyway, further verification and validation efforts are needed to lead to its greater acceptance. In this study, the Monte Carlo simulator OpenFOAM and Sparta have been studied and benchmarked against numerical and theoretical data for inert and chemically reactive flows and the same will be done against experimental data in the near future. The results show the validity of the data found with the DSMC. The best setting of the fundamental parameters used by a DSMC simulator are presented for each software and they are compared with the guidelines deriving from the theory behind the Monte Carlo method. In particular, the number of particles per cell was found to be the most relevant parameter to achieve valid and optimized results. It is shown how a simulation with a mean value of one particle per cell gives sufficiently good results with very low computational resources. This achievement aims to reconsider the correct investigation method in the transitional regime where both the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC and the computational fluid-dynamics (CFD can work, but with a different computational effort.

  6. Uncertainty analysis of atmospheric deposition simulation of radiocesium and radioiodine from Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morino, Yu; Ohara, Toshimasa; Yumimoto, Keiya

    2014-05-01

    Chemical transport models (CTM) played key roles in understanding the atmospheric behaviors and deposition patterns of radioactive materials emitted from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (FDNPP) after the nuclear accident that accompanied the great Tohoku earthquake and tsunami on 11 March 2011. In this study, we assessed uncertainties of atmospheric simulation by comparing observed and simulated deposition of radiocesium (137Cs) and radioiodine (131I). Airborne monitoring survey data were used to assess the model performance of 137Cs deposition patterns. We found that simulation using emissions estimated with a regional-scale (~500 km) CTM better reproduced the observed 137Cs deposition pattern in eastern Japan than simulation using emissions estimated with local-scale (~50 km) or global-scale CTM. In addition, we estimated the emission amount of 137Cs from FDNPP by combining a CTM, a priori source term, and observed deposition data. This is the first use of airborne survey data of 137Cs deposition (more than 16,000 data points) as the observational constraints in inverse modeling. The model simulation driven by a posteriori source term achieved better agreements with 137Cs depositions measured by aircraft survey and at in-situ stations over eastern Japan. Wet deposition module was also evaluated. Simulation using a process-based wet deposition module reproduced the observations well, whereas simulation using scavenging coefficients showed large uncertainties associated with empirical parameters. The best-available simulation reproduced the observed 137Cs deposition rates in high-deposition areas (≥10 kBq m-2) within one order of magnitude. Recently, 131I deposition map was released and helped to evaluate model performance of 131I deposition patterns. Observed 131I/137Cs deposition ratio is higher in areas southwest of FDNPP than northwest of FDNPP, and this behavior was roughly reproduced by a CTM if we assume that released 131I is more in gas phase

  7. On the use of plant emitted volatile organic compounds for atmospheric chemistry simulation experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiendler-Scharr, A.; Hohaus, T.; Yu, Z.; Tillmann, R.; Kuhn, U.; Andres, S.; Kaminski, M.; Wegener, R.; Novelli, A.; Fuchs, H.; Wahner, A.

    2015-12-01

    Biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC) contribute to about 90% of the emitted VOC globally with isoprene being one of the most abundant BVOC (Guenther 2002). Intensive efforts in studying and understanding the impact of BVOC on atmospheric chemistry were undertaken in the recent years. However many uncertainties remain, e.g. field studies have shown that in wooded areas measured OH reactivity can often not be explained by measured BVOC and their oxidation products (e.g. Noelscher et al. 2012). This discrepancy may be explained by either a lack of understanding of BVOC sources or insufficient understanding of BVOC oxidation mechanisms. Plants emit a complex VOC mixture containing likely many compounds which have not yet been measured or identified (Goldstein and Galbally 2007). A lack of understanding BVOC sources limits bottom-up estimates of secondary products of BVOC oxidation such as SOA. Similarly, the widespread oversimplification of atmospheric chemistry in simulation experiments, using single compound or simple BVOC mixtures to study atmospheric chemistry processes limit our ability to assess air quality and climate impacts of BVOC. We will present applications of the new extension PLUS (PLant chamber Unit for Simulation) to our atmosphere simulation chamber SAPHIR. PLUS is used to produce representative BVOC mixtures from direct plant emissions. We will report on the performance and characterization of the newly developed chamber. As an exemplary application, trees typical of a Boreal forest environment were used to compare OH reactivity as directly measured by LIF to the OH reactivity calculated from BVOC measured by GC-MS and PTRMS. The comparison was performed for both, primary emissions of trees without any influence of oxidizing agents and using different oxidation schemes. For the monoterpene emitters investigated here, we show that discrepancies between measured and calculated total OH reactivity increase with increasing degree of oxidation

  8. Fourier analysis of Solar atmospheric numerical simulations accelerated with GPUs (CUDA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marur, A.

    2015-12-01

    Solar dynamics from the convection zone creates a variety of waves that may propagate through the solar atmosphere. These waves are important in facilitating the energy transfer between the sun's surface and the corona as well as propagating energy throughout the solar system. How and where these waves are dissipated remains an open question. Advanced 3D numerical simulations have furthered our understanding of the processes involved. Fourier transforms to understand the nature of the waves by finding the frequency and wavelength of these waves through the simulated atmosphere, as well as the nature of their propagation and where they get dissipated. In order to analyze the different waves produced by the aforementioned simulations and models, Fast Fourier Transform algorithms will be applied. Since the processing of the multitude of different layers of the simulations (of the order of several 100^3 grid points) would be time intensive and inefficient on a CPU, CUDA, a computing architecture that harnesses the power of the GPU, will be used to accelerate the calculations.

  9. Internal variability of fine-scale components of meteorological fields in extended-range limited-area model simulations with atmospheric and surface nudging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Separovic, Leo; Husain, Syed Zahid; Yu, Wei

    2015-09-01

    Internal variability (IV) in dynamical downscaling with limited-area models (LAMs) represents a source of error inherent to the downscaled fields, which originates from the sensitive dependence of the models to arbitrarily small modifications. If IV is large it may impose the need for probabilistic verification of the downscaled information. Atmospheric spectral nudging (ASN) can reduce IV in LAMs as it constrains the large-scale components of LAM fields in the interior of the computational domain and thus prevents any considerable penetration of sensitively dependent deviations into the range of large scales. Using initial condition ensembles, the present study quantifies the impact of ASN on IV in LAM simulations in the range of fine scales that are not controlled by spectral nudging. Four simulation configurations that all include strong ASN but differ in the nudging settings are considered. In the fifth configuration, grid nudging of land surface variables toward high-resolution surface analyses is applied. The results show that the IV at scales larger than 300 km can be suppressed by selecting an appropriate ASN setup. At scales between 300 and 30 km, however, in all configurations, the hourly near-surface temperature, humidity, and winds are only partly reproducible. Nudging the land surface variables is found to have the potential to significantly reduce IV, particularly for fine-scale temperature and humidity. On the other hand, hourly precipitation accumulations at these scales are generally irreproducible in all configurations, and probabilistic approach to downscaling is therefore recommended.

  10. Evaluate dry deposition velocity of the nitrogen oxides using Noah-MP physics ensemble simulations for the Dinghushan Forest, Southern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qi; Chang, Ming; Zhou, Shengzhen; Chen, Weihua; Wang, Xuemei; Liao, Wenhui; Dai, Jianing; Wu, ZhiYong

    2017-11-01

    There has been a rapid growth of reactive nitrogen (Nr) deposition over the world in the past decades. The Pearl River Delta region is one of the areas with high loading of nitrogen deposition. But there are still large uncertainties in the study of dry deposition because of its complex processes of physical chemistry and vegetation physiology. At present, the forest canopy parameterization scheme used in WRF-Chem model is a single-layer "big leaf" model, and the simulation of radiation transmission and energy balance in forest canopy is not detailed and accurate. Noah-MP land surface model (Noah-MP) is based on the Noah land surface model (Noah LSM) and has multiple parametric options to simulate the energy, momentum, and material interactions of the vegetation-soil-atmosphere system. Therefore, to investigate the improvement of the simulation results of WRF-Chem on the nitrogen deposition in forest area after coupled with Noah-MP model and to reduce the influence of meteorological simulation biases on the dry deposition velocity simulation, a dry deposition single-point model coupled by Noah- MP and the WRF-Chem dry deposition module (WDDM) was used to simulate the deposition velocity (Vd). The model was driven by the micro-meteorological observation of the Dinghushan Forest Ecosystem Location Station. And a series of numerical experiments were carried out to identify the key processes influencing the calculation of dry deposition velocity, and the effects of various surface physical and plant physiological processes on dry deposition were discussed. The model captured the observed Vd well, but still underestimated the Vd. The self-defect of Wesely scheme applied by WDDM, and the inaccuracy of built-in parameters in WDDM and input data for Noah-MP (e.g. LAI) were the key factors that cause the underestimation of Vd. Therefore, future work is needed to improve model mechanisms and parameterization.

  11. Transient response simulation of gas separation membrane module for an atmosphere detritiation system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sugiyama, Takahiko; Tanaka, Masahiro; Munakata, Kenzo; Yamamoto, Ichiro

    2012-01-01

    Transient response of a gas separation membrane module for the atmosphere detritiation system was numerically simulated with a mass transfer model. The module contains thousands of hollow fiber type polyimide membranes. The simulation model took into account permeation of water vapor through the dense layer of the membrane, diffusive transfer through the porous support layer and adsorption/desorption of water vapor into the matrix of the porous layer. The slow responses of the water vapor concentration in the retentate and the permeation rate were well reproduced by the present simulation, and transient changes in a follow fiber membrane were investigated in detail. The inventory and the mean residence time of water vapor at 303 K were estimated for the commercial membrane module (UMS-B2, Ube industries, Ltd.) as 5.7 × 10 −3 mol and 380 s, respectively.

  12. Large eddy simulation of atmospheric boundary layer over wind farms using a prescribed boundary layer approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chivaee, Hamid Sarlak; Sørensen, Jens Nørkær; Mikkelsen, Robert Flemming

    2012-01-01

    Large eddy simulation (LES) of flow in a wind farm is studied in neutral as well as thermally stratified atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). An approach has been practiced to simulate the flow in a fully developed wind farm boundary layer. The approach is based on the Immersed Boundary Method (IBM......) and involves implementation of an arbitrary prescribed initial boundary layer (See [1]). A prescribed initial boundary layer profile is enforced through the computational domain using body forces to maintain a desired flow field. The body forces are then stored and applied on the domain through the simulation...... and the boundary layer shape will be modified due to the interaction of the turbine wakes and buoyancy contributions. The implemented method is capable of capturing the most important features of wakes of wind farms [1] while having the advantage of resolving the wall layer with a coarser grid than typically...

  13. ARTS, the Atmospheric Radiative Transfer Simulator - version 2.2, the planetary toolbox edition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buehler, Stefan A.; Mendrok, Jana; Eriksson, Patrick; Perrin, Agnès; Larsson, Richard; Lemke, Oliver

    2018-04-01

    This article describes the latest stable release (version 2.2) of the Atmospheric Radiative Transfer Simulator (ARTS), a public domain software for radiative transfer simulations in the thermal spectral range (microwave to infrared). The main feature of this release is a planetary toolbox that allows simulations for the planets Venus, Mars, and Jupiter, in addition to Earth. This required considerable model adaptations, most notably in the area of gaseous absorption calculations. Other new features are also described, notably radio link budgets (including the effect of Faraday rotation that changes the polarization state) and the treatment of Zeeman splitting for oxygen spectral lines. The latter is relevant, for example, for the various operational microwave satellite temperature sensors of the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) family.

  14. Simulating carbon exchange using a regional atmospheric model coupled to an advanced land-surface model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. W. Ter Maat

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper is a case study to investigate what the main controlling factors are that determine atmospheric carbon dioxide content for a region in the centre of The Netherlands. We use the Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (RAMS, coupled with a land surface scheme simulating carbon, heat and momentum fluxes (SWAPS-C, and including also submodels for urban and marine fluxes, which in principle should include the dominant mechanisms and should be able to capture the relevant dynamics of the system. To validate the model, observations are used that were taken during an intensive observational campaign in central Netherlands in summer 2002. These include flux-tower observations and aircraft observations of vertical profiles and spatial fluxes of various variables.

    The simulations performed with the coupled regional model (RAMS-SWAPS-C are in good qualitative agreement with the observations. The station validation of the model demonstrates that the incoming shortwave radiation and surface fluxes of water and CO2 are well simulated. The comparison against aircraft data shows that the regional meteorology (i.e. wind, temperature is captured well by the model. Comparing spatially explicitly simulated fluxes with aircraft observed fluxes we conclude that in general latent heat fluxes are underestimated by the model compared to the observations but that the latter exhibit large variability within all flights. Sensitivity experiments demonstrate the relevance of the urban emissions of carbon dioxide for the carbon balance in this particular region. The same tests also show the relation between uncertainties in surface fluxes and those in atmospheric concentrations.

  15. Simulating forest productivity and surface-atmosphere carbon exchange in the BOREAS study region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kimball, J.S.; Thornton, P.E.; White, M.A.; Running, S.W. [Montana Univ., Missoula, MT (United States). School of Forestry

    1997-12-31

    Studies have shown that the boreal forest region is in danger of experiencing significant warming and drying in response to increases in atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration and other greenhouse gases. Since the boreal forest region contains 16-24 per cent of the world`s soil carbon, warming in this region could result in a rapid, large-scale displacement and redistribution of boreal forest, enhanced release of CO{sub 2} to the atmosphere, and an intensification of global warming. A study was conducted in which a process-based, general ecosystem model (BIOME-BGC) was used to simulate daily gross primary production, maintenance and heterotrophic respiration, net primary production and net ecosystem carbon exchange of boreal aspen, jack pine and black spruce. The objective was to integrate point measurements across multiple spatial and temporal scales using process level models of the boreal forest water, energy and biogeochemical cycles. Climate characteristics that control simulated carbon fluxes were also studied. Results showed that trees with large daily evapotranspiration rates and those situated on sandy soils with low water holding capacities were especially vulnerable to increased temperature and drought conditions. Trees subject to frequent water stress during the growing season, particularly older trees that exhibit low photosynthetic and high respiration rates, were on the margin between being annual net sources or sinks for atmospheric carbon. 71 refs., 3 tabs., 5 figs.

  16. Simulating the performance of adaptive optics techniques on FSO communications through the atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez, Noelia; Rodríguez Ramos, Luis Fernando; Sodnik, Zoran

    2017-08-01

    The Optical Ground Station (OGS), installed in the Teide Observatory since 1995, was built as part of ESA efforts in the research field of satellite optical communications to test laser telecommunication terminals on board of satellites in Low Earth Orbit and Geostationary Orbit. As far as one side of the link is settled on the Earth, the laser beam (either on the uplink or on the downlink) has to bear with the atmospheric turbulence. Within the framework of designing an Adaptive Optics system to improve the performance of the Free-Space Optical Communications at the OGS, turbulence conditions regarding uplink and downlink have been simulated within the OOMAO (Object-Oriented Matlab Adaptive Optics) Toolbox as well as the possible utilization of a Laser Guide Star to measure the wavefront in this context. Simulations have been carried out by reducing available atmospheric profiles regarding both night-time and day-time measurements and by having into account possible seasonal changes. An AO proposal to reduce atmospheric aberrations and, therefore, ameliorate FSO links performance is presented and analysed in this paper

  17. Kinetic energy spectra, vertical resolution and dissipation in high-resolution atmospheric simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skamarock, W. C.

    2017-12-01

    We have performed week-long full-physics simulations with the MPAS global model at 15 km cell spacing using vertical mesh spacings of 800, 400, 200 and 100 meters in the mid-troposphere through the mid-stratosphere. We find that the horizontal kinetic energy spectra in the upper troposphere and stratosphere does not converge with increasing vertical resolution until we reach 200 meter level spacing. Examination of the solutions indicates that significant inertia-gravity waves are not vertically resolved at the lower vertical resolutions. Diagnostics from the simulations indicate that the primary kinetic energy dissipation results from the vertical mixing within the PBL parameterization and from the gravity-wave drag parameterization, with smaller but significant contributions from damping in the vertical transport scheme and from the horizontal filters in the dynamical core. Most of the kinetic energy dissipation in the free atmosphere occurs within breaking mid-latitude baroclinic waves. We will briefly review these results and their implications for atmospheric model configuration and for atmospheric dynamics, specifically that related to the dynamics associated with the mesoscale kinetic energy spectrum.

  18. Atmospheric dynamics and habitability range in Earth-like aquaplanets obliquity simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowajewski, Priscilla; Rojas, M.; Rojo, P.; Kimeswenger, S.

    2018-05-01

    We present the evolution of the atmospheric variables that affect planetary climate by increasing the obliquity by using a general circulation model (PlaSim) coupled to a slab ocean with mixed layer flux correction. We increase the obliquity between 30° and 90° in 16 aquaplanets with liquid sea surface and perform the simulation allowing the sea ice cover formation to be a consequence of its atmospheric dynamics. Insolation is maintained constant in each experiment, but changing the obliquity affects the radiation budget and the large scale circulation. Earth-like atmospheric dynamics is observed for planets with obliquity under 54°. Above this value, the latitudinal temperature gradient is reversed giving place to a new regime of jet streams, affecting the shape of Hadley and Ferrel cells and changing the position of the InterTropical Convergence Zone. As humidity and high temperatures determine Earth's habitability, we introduce the wet bulb temperature as an atmospheric index of habitability for Earth-like aquaplanets with above freezing temperatures. The aquaplanets are habitable all year round at all latitudes for values under 54°; above this value habitability decreases toward the poles due to high temperatures.

  19. Atmospheric effects of nuclar war aerosols in general circulation model simulations: Influence of smoke optical properties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, S.L.; Ramaswamy, V.; Covey, C.

    1987-01-01

    A global atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) is modified to include radiative transfer parameterizations for the absorption and scattering of solar radiation and the absorption of thermal infrared (IR) radiation by smoke aerosols. The solar scattering modifications include a parameterization for diagnosing smoke optical properties as a function of the time- and space-dependent smoke particle radii. The aerosol IR modifications allow for both the ''grey'' absorber approximation and a broadband approximation that resolves the aerosol absorption in four spectral intervals. We examine the sensitivity of some GCM-simulated atmospheric and climatic effects to the optical properties and radiative transfer parameterizations used in studies of massive injections of smoke. Specifically, we test the model response to solar scattering versus nonscattering smoke, variations in prescribed smoke single scattering albedo and IR specific absorption, and interactive versus fixed smoke optical properties. Hypothetical nuclear war created smoke scenarios assume the July injection of 60 or 180 Tg of smoke over portions of the mid-latitude land areas of the northern hemisphere. Atmospheric transport and scavenging of the smoke are included. Nonscattering smoke cases produce roughly 40 Wm/sup -2/ more Earth-atmosphere solar irradiance absorption over the northern hemisphere, when compared to scattering smoke cases having equivalent specific absorption efficiencies. Varying the elemental carbon content of smoke over a plausible range produces a 4 0 --6 0 C change in average mid-latitude land surface temperature, and a variation of about 0.1 in zonally averaged planetary albedo in the northern hemisphere

  20. Response of ENSO amplitude to global warming in CESM large ensemble: uncertainty due to internal variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Xiao-Tong; Hui, Chang; Yeh, Sang-Wook

    2018-06-01

    El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of variability in the coupled ocean-atmospheric system. Future projections of ENSO change under global warming are highly uncertain among models. In this study, the effect of internal variability on ENSO amplitude change in future climate projections is investigated based on a 40-member ensemble from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) project. A large uncertainty is identified among ensemble members due to internal variability. The inter-member diversity is associated with a zonal dipole pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) change in the mean along the equator, which is similar to the second empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) in the unforced control simulation. The uncertainty in CESM-LE is comparable in magnitude to that among models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), suggesting the contribution of internal variability to the intermodel uncertainty in ENSO amplitude change. However, the causations between changes in ENSO amplitude and the mean state are distinct between CESM-LE and CMIP5 ensemble. The CESM-LE results indicate that a large ensemble of 15 members is needed to separate the relative contributions to ENSO amplitude change over the twenty-first century between forced response and internal variability.

  1. Impacts of calibration strategies and ensemble methods on ensemble flood forecasting over Lanjiang basin, Southeast China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Li; Xu, Yue-Ping

    2017-04-01

    Ensemble flood forecasting driven by numerical weather prediction products is becoming more commonly used in operational flood forecasting applications.In this study, a hydrological ensemble flood forecasting system based on Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and quantitative precipitation forecasts from TIGGE dataset is constructed for Lanjiang Basin, Southeast China. The impacts of calibration strategies and ensemble methods on the performance of the system are then evaluated.The hydrological model is optimized by parallel programmed ɛ-NSGAII multi-objective algorithm and two respectively parameterized models are determined to simulate daily flows and peak flows coupled with a modular approach.The results indicatethat the ɛ-NSGAII algorithm permits more efficient optimization and rational determination on parameter setting.It is demonstrated that the multimodel ensemble streamflow mean have better skills than the best singlemodel ensemble mean (ECMWF) and the multimodel ensembles weighted on members and skill scores outperform other multimodel ensembles. For typical flood event, it is proved that the flood can be predicted 3-4 days in advance, but the flows in rising limb can be captured with only 1-2 days ahead due to the flash feature. With respect to peak flows selected by Peaks Over Threshold approach, the ensemble means from either singlemodel or multimodels are generally underestimated as the extreme values are smoothed out by ensemble process.

  2. Simulating carbon exchange using a regional atmospheric model coupled to an advanced land-surface model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ter Maat, H.W.; Hutjes, R.W.A.; Miglietta, F.; Gioli, B.; Bosveld, F.C.; Vermeulen, A.T.; Fritsch, H.

    2010-08-01

    This paper is a case study to investigate what the main controlling factors are that determine atmospheric carbon dioxide content for a region in the centre of The Netherlands. We use the Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (RAMS), coupled with a land surface scheme simulating carbon, heat and momentum fluxes (SWAPS-C), and including also submodels for urban and marine fluxes, which in principle should include the dominant mechanisms and should be able to capture the relevant dynamics of the system. To validate the model, observations are used that were taken during an intensive observational campaign in central Netherlands in summer 2002. These include flux-tower observations and aircraft observations of vertical profiles and spatial fluxes of various variables.

  3. A mathematical model, algorithm, and package of programs for simulation and prompt estimation of the atmospheric dispersion of radioactive pollutants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nikolaev, V.I.; Yatsko, S.N.

    1995-01-01

    A mathematical model and a package of programs are presented for simulating the atmospheric turbulent diffusion of contaminating impurities from land based and other sources. Test calculations and investigations of the effect of various factors are carried out

  4. Using atmospheric CO2 data to assess a simplified carbon-climate simulation for the 20th century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Law, Rachel M.; Kowalczyk, Eva A.; Wangs, Ying-Ping

    2006-01-01

    The CSIRO biosphere model has been coupled to an atmosphere model and a simulation has been performed for the 20th century. Both biosphere and atmosphere are forced with global CO 2 concentration and the atmosphere is also forced with prescribed sea surface temperatures. The simulation follows the C4MIP Phase 1 protocol. We assess the model simulation using atmospheric CO 2 data. Mauna Loa growth rate is well simulated from 1980 but overestimated before that time. The interannual variations in growth rate are reasonably reproduced. Seasonal cycles are underestimated in northern mid-latitudes and are out of phase in the southern hemisphere. The north-south gradient of annual mean CO 2 is substantially overestimated due to a northern hemisphere net biosphere source and a southern tropical sink. Diurnal cycles at three northern hemisphere locations are larger than observed in many months, most likely due to larger respiration than observed

  5. An efficient method to generate a perturbed parameter ensemble of a fully coupled AOGCM without flux-adjustment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. J. Irvine

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available We present a simple method to generate a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE of a fully-coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM, HadCM3, without requiring flux-adjustment. The aim was to produce an ensemble that samples parametric uncertainty in some key variables and gives a plausible representation of the climate. Six atmospheric parameters, a sea-ice parameter and an ocean parameter were jointly perturbed within a reasonable range to generate an initial group of 200 members. To screen out implausible ensemble members, 20 yr pre-industrial control simulations were run and members whose temperature responses to the parameter perturbations were projected to be outside the range of 13.6 ± 2 °C, i.e. near to the observed pre-industrial global mean, were discarded. Twenty-one members, including the standard unperturbed model, were accepted, covering almost the entire span of the eight parameters, challenging the argument that without flux-adjustment parameter ranges would be unduly restricted. This ensemble was used in 2 experiments; an 800 yr pre-industrial and a 150 yr quadrupled CO2 simulation. The behaviour of the PPE for the pre-industrial control compared well to ERA-40 reanalysis data and the CMIP3 ensemble for a number of surface and atmospheric column variables with the exception of a few members in the Tropics. However, we find that members of the PPE with low values of the entrainment rate coefficient show very large increases in upper tropospheric and stratospheric water vapour concentrations in response to elevated CO2 and one member showed an implausible nonlinear climate response, and as such will be excluded from future experiments with this ensemble. The outcome of this study is a PPE of a fully-coupled AOGCM which samples parametric uncertainty and a simple methodology which would be applicable to other GCMs.

  6. Consolidation and atmospheric drying of fine oil sand tailings : Comparison of blind simulations and field scale results

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vardon, P.J.; Yao, Y.; van Paassen, L.A.; van Tol, A.F.; Sego, D.C.; Wilson, G.W.; Beier, N.A.

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a comparison between blind predictions of field tests of atmospheric drying of mature fine tailings (MFT) presented in IOSTC 2014 and field results. The numerical simulation of the consolidation and atmospheric drying of selfweight consolidating fine material is challenging and

  7. Simulating the Holocene climate evolution at northern high latitudes using a coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean-vegetation model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Renssen, H.; Goosse, H.; Fichefet, T.; Brovkin, V.; Driesschaert, E.; Wolk, F.

    2005-01-01

    The response of the climate at high northern latitudes to slowly changing external forcings was studied in a 9,000-year long simulation with the coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean-vegetation model ECBilt-CLIO-VECODE. Only long-term changes in insolation and atmospheric CO

  8. Simulations of Atmospheric Krypton-85 to Assess the Detectability of Clandestine Nuclear Reprocessing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ross, O.; Ahlswede, J.; Annewandter, R.; Kalinowski, M.B.; Rast, S.; Schluenzen, K.H.

    2010-01-01

    The results of this study were achieved in the project 'Simulation of Atmospheric Noble Gas Concentrations to Assess Sampling Procedures for the Detection of Clandestine Nuclear Reprocessing' (IAEA GER 1643) in the joint programme of IAEA and Federal Government of Germany. In the first year of the project the detectability of additional krypton-85 sources was investigated using atmospheric transport modelling. Krypton-85 is released into the air during reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel rods. Therefore the krypton-85 signature can possibly be used for the detection of undeclared plutonium separation. First, the global krypton-85 background produced by known reprocessing facilities from 1971 until 2006 was simulated with the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5 using annual emission data. The model results were evaluated by extensive comparison with measurements performed by the German Federal Office for Radiation Protection. Of particular interest for an assessment of the detectability of unknown sources is the background variability. The variability of concentrations is very high over central Europe, where the large reprocessing plants La Hague and Sellafield are located, and it is very low on the Southern Hemisphere, where no nuclear reprocessing takes place. The analysis of concentration time series on various time scales allows partly a distinction between fluctuations caused by the variability of the sources from variations due to atmospheric dynamics. Furthermore the detection sensitivity to a set of arbitrarily specified source locations is analysed with a Lagrangian particle dispersion model. This, in combination with the location specific background variability, is giving first benchmarks on the capability of using krypton-85 for IAEA Safeguards based on the Additional Protocols foreseeing environmental sampling. (author)

  9. Formation of amino acids and nucleotide bases in a Titan atmosphere simulation experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hörst, S M; Yelle, R V; Buch, A; Carrasco, N; Cernogora, G; Dutuit, O; Quirico, E; Sciamma-O'Brien, E; Smith, M A; Somogyi, A; Szopa, C; Thissen, R; Vuitton, V

    2012-09-01

    The discovery of large (>100 u) molecules in Titan's upper atmosphere has heightened astrobiological interest in this unique satellite. In particular, complex organic aerosols produced in atmospheres containing C, N, O, and H, like that of Titan, could be a source of prebiotic molecules. In this work, aerosols produced in a Titan atmosphere simulation experiment with enhanced CO (N(2)/CH(4)/CO gas mixtures of 96.2%/2.0%/1.8% and 93.2%/5.0%/1.8%) were found to contain 18 molecules with molecular formulae that correspond to biological amino acids and nucleotide bases. Very high-resolution mass spectrometry of isotopically labeled samples confirmed that C(4)H(5)N(3)O, C(4)H(4)N(2)O(2), C(5)H(6)N(2)O(2), C(5)H(5)N(5), and C(6)H(9)N(3)O(2) are produced by chemistry in the simulation chamber. Gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) analyses of the non-isotopic samples confirmed the presence of cytosine (C(4)H(5)N(3)O), uracil (C(5)H(4)N(2)O(2)), thymine (C(5)H(6)N(2)O(2)), guanine (C(5)H(5)N(5)O), glycine (C(2)H(5)NO(2)), and alanine (C(3)H(7)NO(2)). Adenine (C(5)H(5)N(5)) was detected by GC-MS in isotopically labeled samples. The remaining prebiotic molecules were detected in unlabeled samples only and may have been affected by contamination in the chamber. These results demonstrate that prebiotic molecules can be formed by the high-energy chemistry similar to that which occurs in planetary upper atmospheres and therefore identifies a new source of prebiotic material, potentially increasing the range of planets where life could begin.

  10. Characterisation of the photolytic HONO-source in the atmosphere simulation chamber SAPHIR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Rohrer

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available HONO formation has been proposed as an important OH radical source in simulation chambers for more than two decades. Besides the heterogeneous HONO formation by the dark reaction of NO2 and adsorbed water, a photolytic source has been proposed to explain the elevated reactivity in simulation chamber experiments. However, the mechanism of the photolytic process is not well understood so far. As expected, production of HONO and NOx was also observed inside the new atmospheric simulation chamber SAPHIR under solar irradiation. This photolytic HONO and NOx formation was studied with a sensitive HONO instrument under reproducible controlled conditions at atmospheric concentrations of other trace gases. It is shown that the photolytic HONO source in the SAPHIR chamber is not caused by NO2 reactions and that it is the only direct NOy source under illuminated conditions. In addition, the photolysis of nitrate which was recently postulated for the observed photolytic HONO formation on snow, ground, and glass surfaces, can be excluded in the chamber. A photolytic HONO source at the surface of the chamber is proposed which is strongly dependent on humidity, on light intensity, and on temperature. An empirical function describes these dependencies and reproduces the observed HONO formation rates to within 10%. It is shown that the photolysis of HONO represents the dominant radical source in the SAPHIR chamber for typical tropospheric O3/H2O concentrations. For these conditions, the HONO concentrations inside SAPHIR are similar to recent observations in ambient air.

  11. NON-EQUILIBRIUM HELIUM IONIZATION IN AN MHD SIMULATION OF THE SOLAR ATMOSPHERE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Golding, Thomas Peter; Carlsson, Mats; Leenaarts, Jorrit

    2016-01-01

    The ionization state of the gas in the dynamic solar chromosphere can depart strongly from the instantaneous statistical equilibrium commonly assumed in numerical modeling. We improve on earlier simulations of the solar atmosphere that only included non-equilibrium hydrogen ionization by performing a 2D radiation-magnetohydrodynamics simulation featuring non-equilibrium ionization of both hydrogen and helium. The simulation includes the effect of hydrogen Lyα and the EUV radiation from the corona on the ionization and heating of the atmosphere. Details on code implementation are given. We obtain helium ion fractions that are far from their equilibrium values. Comparison with models with local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) ionization shows that non-equilibrium helium ionization leads to higher temperatures in wavefronts and lower temperatures in the gas between shocks. Assuming LTE ionization results in a thermostat-like behavior with matter accumulating around the temperatures where the LTE ionization fractions change rapidly. Comparison of DEM curves computed from our models shows that non-equilibrium ionization leads to more radiating material in the temperature range 11–18 kK, compared to models with LTE helium ionization. We conclude that non-equilibrium helium ionization is important for the dynamics and thermal structure of the upper chromosphere and transition region. It might also help resolve the problem that intensities of chromospheric lines computed from current models are smaller than those observed

  12. Simulations of atmospheric methane for Cape Grim, Tasmania, to constrain southeastern Australian methane emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. M. Loh

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This study uses two climate models and six scenarios of prescribed methane emissions to compare modelled and observed atmospheric methane between 1994 and 2007, for Cape Grim, Australia (40.7° S, 144.7° E. The model simulations follow the TransCom-CH4 protocol and use the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS and the CSIRO Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM. Radon is also simulated and used to reduce the impact of transport differences between the models and observations. Comparisons are made for air samples that have traversed the Australian continent. All six emission scenarios give modelled concentrations that are broadly consistent with those observed. There are three notable mismatches, however. Firstly, scenarios that incorporate interannually varying biomass burning emissions produce anomalously high methane concentrations at Cape Grim at times of large fire events in southeastern Australia, most likely due to the fire methane emissions being unrealistically input into the lowest model level. Secondly, scenarios with wetland methane emissions in the austral winter overestimate methane concentrations at Cape Grim during wintertime while scenarios without winter wetland emissions perform better. Finally, all scenarios fail to represent a~methane source in austral spring implied by the observations. It is possible that the timing of wetland emissions in the scenarios is incorrect with recent satellite measurements suggesting an austral spring (September–October–November, rather than winter, maximum for wetland emissions.

  13. Stratospheric temperatures and tracer transport in a nudged 4-year middle atmosphere GCM simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Aalst, M. K.; Lelieveld, J.; Steil, B.; Brühl, C.; Jöckel, P.; Giorgetta, M. A.; Roelofs, G.-J.

    2005-02-01

    We have performed a 4-year simulation with the Middle Atmosphere General Circulation Model MAECHAM5/MESSy, while slightly nudging the model's meteorology in the free troposphere (below 113 hPa) towards ECMWF analyses. We show that the nudging 5 technique, which leaves the middle atmosphere almost entirely free, enables comparisons with synoptic observations. The model successfully reproduces many specific features of the interannual variability, including details of the Antarctic vortex structure. In the Arctic, the model captures general features of the interannual variability, but falls short in reproducing the timing of sudden stratospheric warmings. A 10 detailed comparison of the nudged model simulations with ECMWF data shows that the model simulates realistic stratospheric temperature distributions and variabilities, including the temperature minima in the Antarctic vortex. Some small (a few K) model biases were also identified, including a summer cold bias at both poles, and a general cold bias in the lower stratosphere, most pronounced in midlatitudes. A comparison 15 of tracer distributions with HALOE observations shows that the model successfully reproduces specific aspects of the instantaneous circulation. The main tracer transport deficiencies occur in the polar lowermost stratosphere. These are related to the tropopause altitude as well as the tracer advection scheme and model resolution. The additional nudging of equatorial zonal winds, forcing the quasi-biennial oscillation, sig20 nificantly improves stratospheric temperatures and tracer distributions.

  14. Simulating forest productivity and surface-atmosphere carbon exchange in the BOREAS study region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimball, John S.; Thornton, Peter E.; White, Mike A.; Running, Steven W.

    1997-01-01

    A process-based, general ecosystem model (BIOME-BGC) was used to simulate daily gross primary production, maintenance and heterotrophic respiration, net primary production and net ecosystem carbon exchange of boreal aspen, jack pine and black spruce stands. Model simulations of daily net carbon exchange of the ecosystem (NEE) explained 51.7% (SE = 1.32 g C m(-2) day(-1)) of the variance in daily NEE derived from stand eddy flux measurements of CO(2) during 1994. Differences between measured and simulated results were attributed to several factors including difficulties associated with measuring nighttime CO(2) fluxes and model assumptions of site homogeneity. However, comparisons between simulations and field data improved markedly at coarser time-scales. Model simulations explained 66.1% (SE = 0.97 g C m(-2) day(-1)) of the variance in measured NEE when 5-day means of daily results were compared. Annual simulations of aboveground net primary production ranged from 0.6-2.4 Mg C ha(-1) year(-1) and were concurrent with results derived from tree increment core measurements and allometric equations. Model simulations showed that all of the sites were net sinks (0.1-4.1 Mg C ha(-1) year(-1)) of atmospheric carbon for 1994. Older conifer stands showed narrow margins between uptake of carbon by net photosynthesis and carbon release through respiration. Younger stands were more productive than older stands, primarily because of lower maintenance respiration costs. However, all sites appeared to be less productive than temperate forests. Productivity simulations were strongly linked to stand morphology and site conditions. Old jack pine and aspen stands showed decreased productivity in response to simulated low soil water contents near the end of the 1994 growing season. Compared with the aspen stand, the jack pine stand appeared better adapted to conserve soil water through lower daily evapotranspiration losses but also exhibited a narrower margin between daily net

  15. An Ensemble Approach to Understanding the ENSO Response to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevenson, S.; Capotondi, A.; Fasullo, J.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.

    2017-12-01

    The dynamics of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are known to be sensitive to changes in background climate conditions, as well as atmosphere/ocean feedbacks. However, the degree to which shifts in ENSO characteristics can be robustly attributed to external climate forcings remains unknown. Efforts to assess these changes in a multi-model framework are subject to uncertainties due to both differing model physics and internal ENSO variability. New community ensembles created at the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory are ideally suited to addressing this problem, providing many realizations of the climate of the 850-2100 period with a combination of both natural and anthropogenic climate forcing factors. Here we analyze the impacts of external forcing on El Nino and La Nina evolution using four sets of simulations: the CESM Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME), which covers the 850-2005 period and provides long-term context for forced responses; the Large Ensemble (CESM-LE), which includes 20th century and 21st century (RCP8.5) projections; the Medium Ensemble (CESM-ME), which is composed of 21st century RCP4.5 projections; and a large ensemble with the GFDL ESM2M, which includes 20th century and RCP8.5 projections. In the CESM, ENSO variance increases slightly over the 20th century in all ensembles, with the effects becoming much larger during the 21st. The slower increase in variance over the 20th century is shown to arise from compensating influences from greenhouse gas (GHG) and anthropogenic aerosol emissions, which give way to GHG-dominated effects by 2100. However, the 21st century variance increase is not robust: CESM and the ESM2M differ drastically in their ENSO projections. The mechanisms for these inter-model differences are discussed, as are the implications for the design of future multi-model ENSO projection experiments.

  16. Local Cloudiness Development Forecast Based on Simulation of Solid Phase Formation Processes in the Atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barodka, Siarhei; Kliutko, Yauhenia; Krasouski, Alexander; Papko, Iryna; Svetashev, Alexander; Turishev, Leonid

    2013-04-01

    Nowadays numerical simulation of thundercloud formation processes is of great interest as an actual problem from the practical point of view. Thunderclouds significantly affect airplane flights, and mesoscale weather forecast has much to contribute to facilitate the aviation forecast procedures. An accurate forecast can certainly help to avoid aviation accidents due to weather conditions. The present study focuses on modelling of the convective clouds development and thunder clouds detection on the basis of mesoscale atmospheric processes simulation, aiming at significantly improving the aeronautical forecast. In the analysis, the primary weather radar information has been used to be further adapted for mesoscale forecast systems. Two types of domains have been selected for modelling: an internal one (with radius of 8 km), and an external one (with radius of 300 km). The internal domain has been directly applied to study the local clouds development, and the external domain data has been treated as initial and final conditions for cloud cover formation. The domain height has been chosen according to the civil aviation forecast data (i.e. not exceeding 14 km). Simulations of weather conditions and local clouds development have been made within selected domains with the WRF modelling system. In several cases, thunderclouds are detected within the convective clouds. To specify the given category of clouds, we employ a simulation technique of solid phase formation processes in the atmosphere. Based on modelling results, we construct vertical profiles indicating the amount of solid phase in the atmosphere. Furthermore, we obtain profiles demonstrating the amount of ice particles and large particles (hailstones). While simulating the processes of solid phase formation, we investigate vertical and horizontal air flows. Consequently, we attempt to separate the total amount of solid phase into categories of small ice particles, large ice particles and hailstones. Also, we

  17. Limited-area short-range ensemble predictions targeted for heavy rain in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Sattler

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Inherent uncertainties in short-range quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF from the high-resolution, limited-area numerical weather prediction model DMI-HIRLAM (LAM are addressed using two different approaches to creating a small ensemble of LAM simulations, with focus on prediction of extreme rainfall events over European river basins. The first ensemble type is designed to represent uncertainty in the atmospheric state of the initial condition and at the lateral LAM boundaries. The global ensemble prediction system (EPS from ECMWF serves as host model to the LAM and provides the state perturbations, from which a small set of significant members is selected. The significance is estimated on the basis of accumulated precipitation over a target area of interest, which contains the river basin(s under consideration. The selected members provide the initial and boundary data for the ensemble integration in the LAM. A second ensemble approach tries to address a portion of the model-inherent uncertainty responsible for errors in the forecasted precipitation field by utilising different parameterisation schemes for condensation and convection in the LAM. Three periods around historical heavy rain events that caused or contributed to disastrous river flooding in Europe are used to study the performance of the LAM ensemble designs. The three cases exhibit different dynamic and synoptic characteristics and provide an indication of the ensemble qualities in different weather situations. Precipitation analyses from the Deutsche Wetterdienst (DWD are used as the verifying reference and a comparison of daily rainfall amounts is referred to the respective river basins of the historical cases.

  18. High Resolution Simulations of Future Climate in West Africa Using a Variable-Resolution Atmospheric Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adegoke, J. O.; Engelbrecht, F.; Vezhapparambu, S.

    2013-12-01

    In previous work demonstrated the application of a var¬iable-resolution global atmospheric model, the conformal-cubic atmospheric model (CCAM), across a wide range of spatial and time scales to investigate the ability of the model to provide realistic simulations of present-day climate and plausible projections of future climate change over sub-Saharan Africa. By applying the model in stretched-grid mode the versatility of the model dynamics, numerical formulation and physical parameterizations to function across a range of length scales over the region of interest, was also explored. We primarily used CCAM to illustrate the capability of the model to function as a flexible downscaling tool at the climate-change time scale. Here we report on additional long term climate projection studies performed by downscaling at much higher resolutions (8 Km) over an area that stretches from just south of Sahara desert to the southern coast of the Niger Delta and into the Gulf of Guinea. To perform these simulations, CCAM was provided with synoptic-scale forcing of atmospheric circulation from 2.5 deg resolution NCEP reanalysis at 6-hourly interval and SSTs from NCEP reanalysis data uses as lower boundary forcing. CCAM 60 Km resolution downscaled to 8 Km (Schmidt factor 24.75) then 8 Km resolution simulation downscaled to 1 Km (Schmidt factor 200) over an area approximately 50 Km x 50 Km in the southern Lake Chad Basin (LCB). Our intent in conducting these high resolution model runs was to obtain a deeper understanding of linkages between the projected future climate and the hydrological processes that control the surface water regime in this part of sub-Saharan Africa.

  19. Convective transport in ATM simulations and its relation to the atmospheric stability conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusmierczyk-Michulec, Jolanta

    2017-04-01

    The International Monitoring System (IMS) developed by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) is a global system of monitoring stations, using four complementary technologies: seismic, hydroacoustic, infrasound and radionuclide. Data from all stations, belonging to IMS, are collected and transmitted to the International Data Centre (IDC) in Vienna, Austria. The radionuclide network comprises 80 stations, of which more than 60 are certified. The aim of radionuclide stations is a global monitoring of radioactive aerosols and radioactive noble gases, in particular xenon isotopes, supported by the atmospheric transport modeling (ATM). One of the important noble gases, monitored on a daily basis, is radioxenon. It can be produced either during a nuclear explosion with a high fission yield, and thus be considered as an important tracer to prove the nuclear character of an explosion, or be emitted from nuclear power plants (NPPs) or from isotope production facilities (IPFs). To investigate the transport of xenon emissions, the Provisional Technical Secretariat (PTS) operates an Atmospheric Transport Modelling (ATM) system based on the Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model FLEXPART. To address the question whether including the convective transport in ATM simulations will change the results significantly, the differences between the outputs with the convective transport turned off and turned on, were computed and further investigated taking into account the atmospheric stability conditions. For that purpose series of 14 days forward simulations, with convective transport and without it, released daily in the period January 2011 to February 2012, were analysed. The release point was at the ANSTO facility in Australia. The unique opportunity of having access to both daily emission values for ANSTO as well as measured Xe-133 activity concentration (AC) values at the IMS stations, gave a chance to validate the simulations.

  20. Surface and top-of-atmosphere radiative feedback kernels for CESM-CAM5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pendergrass, Angeline G.; Conley, Andrew; Vitt, Francis M.

    2018-02-01

    Radiative kernels at the top of the atmosphere are useful for decomposing changes in atmospheric radiative fluxes due to feedbacks from atmosphere and surface temperature, water vapor, and surface albedo. Here we describe and validate radiative kernels calculated with the large-ensemble version of CAM5, CESM1.1.2, at the top of the atmosphere and the surface. Estimates of the radiative forcing from greenhouse gases and aerosols in RCP8.5 in the CESM large-ensemble simulations are also diagnosed. As an application, feedbacks are calculated for the CESM large ensemble. The kernels are freely available at https://doi.org/10.5065/D6F47MT6" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.5065/D6F47MT6, and accompanying software can be downloaded from https://github.com/apendergrass/cam5-kernels" target="_blank">https://github.com/apendergrass/cam5-kernels.

  1. Evaluation of Vapor Pressure Estimation Methods for Use in Simulating the Dynamic of Atmospheric Organic Aerosols

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Komkoua Mbienda

    2013-01-01

    Lee and Kesler (LK, and Ambrose-Walton (AW methods for estimating vapor pressures ( are tested against experimental data for a set of volatile organic compounds (VOC. required to determine gas-particle partitioning of such organic compounds is used as a parameter for simulating the dynamic of atmospheric aerosols. Here, we use the structure-property relationships of VOC to estimate . The accuracy of each of the aforementioned methods is also assessed for each class of compounds (hydrocarbons, monofunctionalized, difunctionalized, and tri- and more functionalized volatile organic species. It is found that the best method for each VOC depends on its functionality.

  2. Development of the Ensemble Navy Aerosol Analysis Prediction System (ENAAPS and its application of the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART in support of aerosol forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. I. Rubin

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available An ensemble-based forecast and data assimilation system has been developed for use in Navy aerosol forecasting. The system makes use of an ensemble of the Navy Aerosol Analysis Prediction System (ENAAPS at 1 × 1°, combined with an ensemble adjustment Kalman filter from NCAR's Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART. The base ENAAPS-DART system discussed in this work utilizes the Navy Operational Global Analysis Prediction System (NOGAPS meteorological ensemble to drive offline NAAPS simulations coupled with the DART ensemble Kalman filter architecture to assimilate bias-corrected MODIS aerosol optical thickness (AOT retrievals. This work outlines the optimization of the 20-member ensemble system, including consideration of meteorology and source-perturbed ensemble members as well as covariance inflation. Additional tests with 80 meteorological and source members were also performed. An important finding of this work is that an adaptive covariance inflation method, which has not been previously tested for aerosol applications, was found to perform better than a temporally and spatially constant covariance inflation. Problems were identified with the constant inflation in regions with limited observational coverage. The second major finding of this work is that combined meteorology and aerosol source ensembles are superior to either in isolation and that both are necessary to produce a robust system with sufficient spread in the ensemble members as well as realistic correlation fields for spreading observational information. The inclusion of aerosol source ensembles improves correlation fields for large aerosol source regions, such as smoke and dust in Africa, by statistically separating freshly emitted from transported aerosol species. However, the source ensembles have limited efficacy during long-range transport. Conversely, the meteorological ensemble generates sufficient spread at the synoptic scale to enable observational impact

  3. NASA's GMAO Atmospheric Motion Vectors Simulator: Description and Application to the MISTiC Winds Concept

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho, David; McCarty, Will; Errico, Ron; Prive, Nikki

    2018-01-01

    An atmospheric wind vectors (AMVs) simulator was developed by NASA's GMAO to simulate observations from future satellite constellation concepts. The synthetic AMVs can then be used in OSSEs to estimate and quantify the potential added value of new observations to the present Earth observing system and, ultimately, the expected impact on the current weather forecasting skill. The GMAO AMV simulator is a tunable and flexible computer code that is able to simulate AMVs expected to be derived from different instruments and satellite orbit configurations. As a case study and example of the usefulness of this tool, the GMAO AMV simulator was used to simulate AMVs envisioned to be provided by the MISTiC Winds, a NASA mission concept consisting of a constellation of satellites equipped with infrared spectral midwave spectrometers, expected to provide high spatial and temporal resolution temperature and humidity soundings of the troposphere that can be used to derive AMVs from the tracking of clouds and water vapor features. The GMAO AMV simulator identifies trackable clouds and water vapor features in the G5NR and employs a probabilistic function to draw a subset of the identified trackable features. Before the simulator is applied to the MISTiC Winds concept, the simulator was calibrated to yield realistic observations counts and spatial distributions and validated considering as a proxy instrument to the MISTiC Winds the Himawari-8 Advanced Imager (AHI). The simulated AHI AMVs showed a close match with the real AHI AMVs in terms of observation counts and spatial distributions, showing that the GMAO AMVs simulator synthesizes AMVs observations with enough quality and realism to produce a response from the DAS equivalent to the one produced with real observations. When applied to the MISTiC Winds scanning points, it can be expected that the MISTiC Winds will be able to collect approximately 60,000 wind observations every 6 hours, if considering a constellation composed of

  4. Single-trial estimation of stimulus and spike-history effects on time-varying ensemble spiking activity of multiple neurons: a simulation study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimazaki, Hideaki

    2013-01-01

    Neurons in cortical circuits exhibit coordinated spiking activity, and can produce correlated synchronous spikes during behavior and cognition. We recently developed a method for estimating the dynamics of correlated ensemble activity by combining a model of simultaneous neuronal interactions (e.g., a spin-glass model) with a state-space method (Shimazaki et al. 2012 PLoS Comput Biol 8 e1002385). This method allows us to estimate stimulus-evoked dynamics of neuronal interactions which is reproducible in repeated trials under identical experimental conditions. However, the method may not be suitable for detecting stimulus responses if the neuronal dynamics exhibits significant variability across trials. In addition, the previous model does not include effects of past spiking activity of the neurons on the current state of ensemble activity. In this study, we develop a parametric method for simultaneously estimating the stimulus and spike-history effects on the ensemble activity from single-trial data even if the neurons exhibit dynamics that is largely unrelated to these effects. For this goal, we model ensemble neuronal activity as a latent process and include the stimulus and spike-history effects as exogenous inputs to the latent process. We develop an expectation-maximization algorithm that simultaneously achieves estimation of the latent process, stimulus responses, and spike-history effects. The proposed method is useful to analyze an interaction of internal cortical states and sensory evoked activity

  5. The System of the Calibration for Visibility Measurement Instrument Under the Atmospheric Aerosol Simulation Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shu Zhifeng

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Visibility is one of the most important parameters for meteorological observation and numerical weather prediction (NWP.It is also an important factor in everyday life, mainly for surface and air traffic especially in the Aeronautical Meteorology. The visibility decides the taking off and landing of aircraft. If the airport visibility is lower than requirement for aircraft taking off stipulated by International Civil Aviation Administration, then the aircraft must be parked at the airport. So the accurate measurement of visibility is very important. Nowadays, many devices can be measured the visibility or meteorological optical range (MOR such as Scatterometers, Transmissometers and visibility lidar. But there is not effective way to verify the accuracy of these devices expect the artificial visual method. We have developed a visibility testing system that can be calibration and verification these devices. The system consists of laser transmitter, optical chopper, phase-locking amplifier, the moving optic receiving system, signal detection and data acquisition system, atmospheric aerosol simulation chamber. All of them were placed in the atmosphere aerosol simulation chamber with uniform aerosol concentration. The Continuous wave laser, wavelength 550nm, has been transmitted into the collimation system then the laser beam expanded into 40mm diameter for compressing the laser divergence angle before modulated by optical chopper. The expanding beam transmitting in the atmosphere aerosol cabin received by the optic receiving system moving in the 50m length precision guide with 100mm optical aperture. The data of laser signal has been acquired by phase-locking amplifier every 5 meter range. So the 10 data points can be detected in the 50 meters guide once. The slope of the fitting curve can be obtained by linear fitting these data using the least square method. The laser extinction coefficient was calculated from the slope using the Koschmieder

  6. Multilevel ensemble Kalman filter

    KAUST Repository

    Chernov, Alexey; Hoel, Haakon; Law, Kody; Nobile, Fabio; Tempone, Raul

    2016-01-01

    This work embeds a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) sampling strategy into the Monte Carlo step of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). In terms of computational cost vs. approximation error the asymptotic performance of the multilevel ensemble Kalman filter (MLEnKF) is superior to the EnKF s.

  7. Entropy of network ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bianconi, Ginestra

    2009-03-01

    In this paper we generalize the concept of random networks to describe network ensembles with nontrivial features by a statistical mechanics approach. This framework is able to describe undirected and directed network ensembles as well as weighted network ensembles. These networks might have nontrivial community structure or, in the case of networks embedded in a given space, they might have a link probability with a nontrivial dependence on the distance between the nodes. These ensembles are characterized by their entropy, which evaluates the cardinality of networks in the ensemble. In particular, in this paper we define and evaluate the structural entropy, i.e., the entropy of the ensembles of undirected uncorrelated simple networks with given degree sequence. We stress the apparent paradox that scale-free degree distributions are characterized by having small structural entropy while they are so widely encountered in natural, social, and technological complex systems. We propose a solution to the paradox by proving that scale-free degree distributions are the most likely degree distribution with the corresponding value of the structural entropy. Finally, the general framework we present in this paper is able to describe microcanonical ensembles of networks as well as canonical or hidden-variable network ensembles with significant implications for the formulation of network-constructing algorithms.

  8. Multilevel ensemble Kalman filter

    KAUST Repository

    Chernov, Alexey

    2016-01-06

    This work embeds a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) sampling strategy into the Monte Carlo step of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). In terms of computational cost vs. approximation error the asymptotic performance of the multilevel ensemble Kalman filter (MLEnKF) is superior to the EnKF s.

  9. Simulation of comprehensive chemistry and atmospheric methane lifetime in the LGM with EMAC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gromov, Sergey; Steil, Benedikt

    2017-04-01

    Past records of atmospheric methane (CH4) abundance/isotope composition may provide a substantial insight on C exchanges in the Earth System (ES). When simulated in the climate models, CH4 helps to identify climate parameters transitions via triggering of its different (natural) sources, with a proviso that its sinks are adequately represented in the model. The latter are still a matter of large uncertainty in the studies focussing on the interpretation of CH4 evolution throughout Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), judging the conferred span of tropospheric CH4 lifetime (λ) of 3-16 yr [1-4]. In this study, we attempt to: (i) deliver the most adequate estimate of the LGM atmospheric sink of CH4 in the EMAC AC-GCM [5] equipped with the comprehensive representation of atmospheric chemistry [6], (ii) reveal the ES and CH4 emission parameters that are most influential for λ and (iii) based on these findings, suggest a parameterisation for λ that may be consistently used in climate models. In pursuing (i) we have tuned the EMAC model for simulating LGM atmospheric chemistry state, including careful revisiting of the trace gases emissions from the biosphere, biomass burning/lightning source, etc. The latter affect the key simulated component bound with λ, viz. the abundance and distribution of the hydroxyl radicals (OH) which, upon reacting with CH4, constitute its main tropospheric sink. Our preliminary findings suggest that OH is buffered in the atmosphere in a similar fashion to preindustrial climate, which in line with the recent studies employing comprehensive chemistry mechanisms (e.g., [3]). The analysis in (ii) suggests that tropospheric λ values may be qualitatively described as a convolution of values typical for zonal domain with high and low photolytic recycling rates (i.e. tropics and extra-tropics), as in the latter a dependence of the zonal average λ value on the CH4 emission strength exists. We further use the extensive diagnostic in EMAC to infer the

  10. MPAS Atmospheric Boundary Layer Simulation under Selected Stability Conditions: Evaluation Using the SWIFT Datasen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kotamarthi, V. Rao [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Feng, Yan [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2016-10-12

    Modeling the transition from mesoscale to microscale is necessary in order to model different processes that affect a wind farm and to develop forecasting tools that operate at the farm scale. The mesoscale-to-microscale coupling (MMC) project is an A2e (Atmosphere-toelectrons) coordinated activity for developing modeling capabilities at the wind farm scale. By moving the focus of the research from a single wind turbine to the collection of turbines that comprise a wind farm, A2e extends the range of spatial and timescales that need representation in a model from tens of meters to hundreds of kilometers and timescales from a few seconds to days (Bokharaie et al. 2016). In the atmosphere, these scales are represented by mesoscale-tomicroscale models. The modeling available at these scales has differed in its representation of various physical processes. The MMC group is responsible for evaluating existing models at these scales and recommending a set of options for coupling the mesoscale and microscale with the best-performing models. The group was organized in 2015 and will explore options for coupling strategies with real-world test problems in fiscal year (FY) 2017. The model of choice for this exercise is WRF (Weather Research Forecasting) for mesoscale and WRF-LES (Large Eddy Simulation) for microscale simulations. The MPAS (Model Prediction Across Scales) variable mesh model that can be continuously refined; it has dynamic core and physics options adopted from WRF, which offer an alternative platform for modeling the mesoscale.

  11. Numerical simulation for production of O and N radicals in an atmospheric-pressure streamer discharge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Komuro, Atsushi; Ono, Ryo; Oda, Tetsuji

    2012-01-01

    A streamer discharge model is developed to analyse the characteristics of a pulsed positive streamer discharge in point-to-plane electrodes filled with oxygen-nitrogen mixed gas at room temperature and atmospheric pressure. In this paper we study the mechanisms of O and N radical production in an atmospheric-pressure streamer discharge. To confirm the validity of the simulation model, the discharge emission of light and the discharge current are compared with experimental data at several voltages in gas mixtures with 2-20% oxygen concentrations. The calculated streak picture and the axial distribution of streamer luminous intensity are in good agreement with our previous experimental results. After demonstrating the reliability of the model, we performed a numerical study on radical production by the streamer discharge. The experimentally obtained axial distributions of oxygen radical production in O 2 (20%)/N 2 and nitrogen radical production in O 2 (2%)/N 2 are successfully reproduced in our simulation. For the production of nitrogen radicals, two-step dissociation through the vibrationally excited states is predominant. (paper)

  12. Well-balanced compressible cut-cell simulation of atmospheric flow.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, R; Bates, K R; Nikiforakis, N

    2009-11-28

    Cut-cell meshes present an attractive alternative to terrain-following coordinates for the representation of topography within atmospheric flow simulations, particularly in regions of steep topographic gradients. In this paper, we present an explicit two-dimensional method for the numerical solution on such meshes of atmospheric flow equations including gravitational sources. This method is fully conservative and allows for time steps determined by the regular grid spacing, avoiding potential stability issues due to arbitrarily small boundary cells. We believe that the scheme is unique in that it is developed within a dimensionally split framework, in which each coordinate direction in the flow is solved independently at each time step. Other notable features of the scheme are: (i) its conceptual and practical simplicity, (ii) its flexibility with regard to the one-dimensional flux approximation scheme employed, and (iii) the well-balancing of the gravitational sources allowing for stable simulation of near-hydrostatic flows. The presented method is applied to a selection of test problems including buoyant bubble rise interacting with geometry and lee-wave generation due to topography.

  13. Numerical simulation of small-scale mixing processes in the upper ocean and atmospheric boundary layer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Druzhinin, O; Troitskaya, Yu; Zilitinkevich, S

    2016-01-01

    The processes of turbulent mixing and momentum and heat exchange occur in the upper ocean at depths up to several dozens of meters and in the atmospheric boundary layer within interval of millimeters to dozens of meters and can not be resolved by known large- scale climate models. Thus small-scale processes need to be parameterized with respect to large scale fields. This parameterization involves the so-called bulk coefficients which relate turbulent fluxes with large-scale fields gradients. The bulk coefficients are dependent on the properties of the small-scale mixing processes which are affected by the upper-ocean stratification and characteristics of surface and internal waves. These dependencies are not well understood at present and need to be clarified. We employ Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) as a research tool which resolves all relevant flow scales and does not require closure assumptions typical of Large-Eddy and Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes simulations (LES and RANS). Thus DNS provides a solid ground for correct parameterization of small-scale mixing processes and also can be used for improving LES and RANS closure models. In particular, we discuss the problems of the interaction between small-scale turbulence and internal gravity waves propagating in the pycnocline in the upper ocean as well as the impact of surface waves on the properties of atmospheric boundary layer over wavy water surface. (paper)

  14. The Ensembl REST API: Ensembl Data for Any Language.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yates, Andrew; Beal, Kathryn; Keenan, Stephen; McLaren, William; Pignatelli, Miguel; Ritchie, Graham R S; Ruffier, Magali; Taylor, Kieron; Vullo, Alessandro; Flicek, Paul

    2015-01-01

    We present a Web service to access Ensembl data using Representational State Transfer (REST). The Ensembl REST server enables the easy retrieval of a wide range of Ensembl data by most programming languages, using standard formats such as JSON and FASTA while minimizing client work. We also introduce bindings to the popular Ensembl Variant Effect Predictor tool permitting large-scale programmatic variant analysis independent of any specific programming language. The Ensembl REST API can be accessed at http://rest.ensembl.org and source code is freely available under an Apache 2.0 license from http://github.com/Ensembl/ensembl-rest. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press.

  15. Demonstrating the value of larger ensembles in forecasting physical systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reason L. Machete

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Ensemble simulation propagates a collection of initial states forward in time in a Monte Carlo fashion. Depending on the fidelity of the model and the properties of the initial ensemble, the goal of ensemble simulation can range from merely quantifying variations in the sensitivity of the model all the way to providing actionable probability forecasts of the future. Whatever the goal is, success depends on the properties of the ensemble, and there is a longstanding discussion in meteorology as to the size of initial condition ensemble most appropriate for Numerical Weather Prediction. In terms of resource allocation: how is one to divide finite computing resources between model complexity, ensemble size, data assimilation and other components of the forecast system. One wishes to avoid undersampling information available from the model's dynamics, yet one also wishes to use the highest fidelity model available. Arguably, a higher fidelity model can better exploit a larger ensemble; nevertheless it is often suggested that a relatively small ensemble, say ~16 members, is sufficient and that larger ensembles are not an effective investment of resources. This claim is shown to be dubious when the goal is probabilistic forecasting, even in settings where the forecast model is informative but imperfect. Probability forecasts for a ‘simple’ physical system are evaluated at different lead times; ensembles of up to 256 members are considered. The pure density estimation context (where ensemble members are drawn from the same underlying distribution as the target differs from the forecasting context, where one is given a high fidelity (but imperfect model. In the forecasting context, the information provided by additional members depends also on the fidelity of the model, the ensemble formation scheme (data assimilation, the ensemble interpretation and the nature of the observational noise. The effect of increasing the ensemble size is quantified by

  16. Impact of atmospheric model resolution on simulation of ENSO feedback processes: a coupled model study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hua, Lijuan; Chen, Lin; Rong, Xinyao; Su, Jingzhi; Wang, Lu; Li, Tim; Yu, Yongqiang

    2018-03-01

    This study examines El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related air-sea feedback processes in a coupled general circulation model (CGCM) to gauge model errors and pin down their sources in ENSO simulation. Three horizontal resolutions of the atmospheric component (T42, T63 and T106) of the CGCM are used to investigate how the simulated ENSO behaviors are affected by the resolution. We find that air-sea feedback processes in the three experiments mainly differ in terms of both thermodynamic and dynamic feedbacks. We also find that these processes are simulated more reasonably in the highest resolution version than in the other two lower resolution versions. The difference in the thermodynamic feedback arises from the difference in the shortwave-radiation (SW) feedback. Due to the severely (mildly) excessive cold tongue in the lower (higher) resolution version, the SW feedback is severely (mildly) underestimated. The main difference in the dynamic feedback processes lies in the thermocline feedback and the zonal-advection feedback, both of which are caused by the difference in the anomalous thermocline response to anomalous zonal wind stress. The difference in representing the anomalous thermocline response is attributed to the difference in meridional structure of zonal wind stress anomaly in the three simulations, which is linked to meridional resolution.

  17. EXPLORING BIASES OF ATMOSPHERIC RETRIEVALS IN SIMULATED JWST TRANSMISSION SPECTRA OF HOT JUPITERS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rocchetto, M.; Waldmann, I. P.; Tinetti, G.; Venot, O.; Lagage, P.-O.

    2016-01-01

    With a scheduled launch in 2018 October, the James Webb Space Telescope ( JWST ) is expected to revolutionize the field of atmospheric characterization of exoplanets. The broad wavelength coverage and high sensitivity of its instruments will allow us to extract far more information from exoplanet spectra than what has been possible with current observations. In this paper, we investigate whether current retrieval methods will still be valid in the era of JWST , exploring common approximations used when retrieving transmission spectra of hot Jupiters. To assess biases, we use 1D photochemical models to simulate typical hot Jupiter cloud-free atmospheres and generate synthetic observations for a range of carbon-to-oxygen ratios. Then, we retrieve these spectra using TauREx, a Bayesian retrieval tool, using two methodologies: one assuming an isothermal atmosphere, and one assuming a parameterized temperature profile. Both methods assume constant-with-altitude abundances. We found that the isothermal approximation biases the retrieved parameters considerably, overestimating the abundances by about one order of magnitude. The retrieved abundances using the parameterized profile are usually within 1 σ of the true state, and we found the retrieved uncertainties to be generally larger compared to the isothermal approximation. Interestingly, we found that by using the parameterized temperature profile we could place tight constraints on the temperature structure. This opens the possibility of characterizing the temperature profile of the terminator region of hot Jupiters. Lastly, we found that assuming a constant-with-altitude mixing ratio profile is a good approximation for most of the atmospheres under study.

  18. EXPLORING BIASES OF ATMOSPHERIC RETRIEVALS IN SIMULATED JWST TRANSMISSION SPECTRA OF HOT JUPITERS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rocchetto, M.; Waldmann, I. P.; Tinetti, G. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University College London, Gower Street, WC1E6BT London (United Kingdom); Venot, O. [Instituut voor Sterrenkunde, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 200D, B-3001 Leuven (Belgium); Lagage, P.-O., E-mail: m.rocchetto@ucl.ac.uk [Irfu, CEA, Université Paris-Saclay, F-9119 Gif-sur Yvette (France)

    2016-12-10

    With a scheduled launch in 2018 October, the James Webb Space Telescope ( JWST ) is expected to revolutionize the field of atmospheric characterization of exoplanets. The broad wavelength coverage and high sensitivity of its instruments will allow us to extract far more information from exoplanet spectra than what has been possible with current observations. In this paper, we investigate whether current retrieval methods will still be valid in the era of JWST , exploring common approximations used when retrieving transmission spectra of hot Jupiters. To assess biases, we use 1D photochemical models to simulate typical hot Jupiter cloud-free atmospheres and generate synthetic observations for a range of carbon-to-oxygen ratios. Then, we retrieve these spectra using TauREx, a Bayesian retrieval tool, using two methodologies: one assuming an isothermal atmosphere, and one assuming a parameterized temperature profile. Both methods assume constant-with-altitude abundances. We found that the isothermal approximation biases the retrieved parameters considerably, overestimating the abundances by about one order of magnitude. The retrieved abundances using the parameterized profile are usually within 1 σ of the true state, and we found the retrieved uncertainties to be generally larger compared to the isothermal approximation. Interestingly, we found that by using the parameterized temperature profile we could place tight constraints on the temperature structure. This opens the possibility of characterizing the temperature profile of the terminator region of hot Jupiters. Lastly, we found that assuming a constant-with-altitude mixing ratio profile is a good approximation for most of the atmospheres under study.

  19. Using synchronization in multi-model ensembles to improve prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiemstra, P.; Selten, F.

    2012-04-01

    In recent decades, many climate models have been developed to understand and predict the behavior of the Earth's climate system. Although these models are all based on the same basic physical principles, they still show different behavior. This is for example caused by the choice of how to parametrize sub-grid scale processes. One method to combine these imperfect models, is to run a multi-model ensemble. The models are given identical initial conditions and are integrated forward in time. A multi-model estimate can for example be a weighted mean of the ensemble members. We propose to go a step further, and try to obtain synchronization between the imperfect models by connecting the multi-model ensemble, and exchanging information. The combined multi-model ensemble is also known as a supermodel. The supermodel has learned from observations how to optimally exchange information between the ensemble members. In this study we focused on the density and formulation of the onnections within the supermodel. The main question was whether we could obtain syn-chronization between two climate models when connecting only a subset of their state spaces. Limiting the connected subspace has two advantages: 1) it limits the transfer of data (bytes) between the ensemble, which can be a limiting factor in large scale climate models, and 2) learning the optimal connection strategy from observations is easier. To answer the research question, we connected two identical quasi-geostrohic (QG) atmospheric models to each other, where the model have different initial conditions. The QG model is a qualitatively realistic simulation of the winter flow on the Northern hemisphere, has three layers and uses a spectral imple-mentation. We connected the models in the original spherical harmonical state space, and in linear combinations of these spherical harmonics, i.e. Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs). We show that when connecting through spherical harmonics, we only need to connect 28% of

  20. IASI Radiance Data Assimilation in Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, K.; Hyoung-Wook, C.; Jo, Y.

    2016-12-01

    Korea institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems (KIAPS) is developing NWP model with data assimilation systems. Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) system, one of the data assimilation systems, has been developed for KIAPS Integrated Model (KIM) based on cubed-sphere grid and has successfully assimilated real data. LETKF data assimilation system has been extended to 4D- LETKF which considers time-evolving error covariance within assimilation window and IASI radiance data assimilation using KPOP (KIAPS package for observation processing) with RTTOV (Radiative Transfer for TOVS). The LETKF system is implementing semi operational prediction including conventional (sonde, aircraft) observation and AMSU-A (Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A) radiance data from April. Recently, the semi operational prediction system updated radiance observations including GPS-RO, AMV, IASI (Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer) data at July. A set of simulation of KIM with ne30np4 and 50 vertical levels (of top 0.3hPa) were carried out for short range forecast (10days) within semi operation prediction LETKF system with ensemble forecast 50 members. In order to only IASI impact, our experiments used only conventional and IAIS radiance data to same semi operational prediction set. We carried out sensitivity test for IAIS thinning method (3D and 4D). IASI observation number was increased by temporal (4D) thinning and the improvement of IASI radiance data impact on the forecast skill of model will expect.

  1. Non-equilibrium hydrogen ionization in 2D simulations of the solar atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leenaarts, J.; Carlsson, M.; Hansteen, V.; Rutten, R. J.

    2007-10-01

    Context: The ionization of hydrogen in the solar chromosphere and transition region does not obey LTE or instantaneous statistical equilibrium because the timescale is long compared with important hydrodynamical timescales, especially of magneto-acoustic shocks. Since the pressure, temperature, and electron density depend sensitively on hydrogen ionization, numerical simulation of the solar atmosphere requires non-equilibrium treatment of all pertinent hydrogen transitions. The same holds for any diagnostic application employing hydrogen lines. Aims: To demonstrate the importance and to quantify the effects of non-equilibrium hydrogen ionization, both on the dynamical structure of the solar atmosphere and on hydrogen line formation, in particular Hα. Methods: We implement an algorithm to compute non-equilibrium hydrogen ionization and its coupling into the MHD equations within an existing radiation MHD code, and perform a two-dimensional simulation of the solar atmosphere from the convection zone to the corona. Results: Analysis of the simulation results and comparison to a companion simulation assuming LTE shows that: a) non-equilibrium computation delivers much smaller variations of the chromospheric hydrogen ionization than for LTE. The ionization is smaller within shocks but subsequently remains high in the cool intershock phases. As a result, the chromospheric temperature variations are much larger than for LTE because in non-equilibrium, hydrogen ionization is a less effective internal energy buffer. The actual shock temperatures are therefore higher and the intershock temperatures lower. b) The chromospheric populations of the hydrogen n = 2 level, which governs the opacity of Hα, are coupled to the ion populations. They are set by the high temperature in shocks and subsequently remain high in the cool intershock phases. c) The temperature structure and the hydrogen level populations differ much between the chromosphere above photospheric magnetic elements

  2. The Titan Sky Simulator ™ - Testing Prototype Balloons in Conditions Approximating those in Titan's Atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nott, Julian

    This paper will describe practical work flying prototype balloons in the "The Titan Sky Simulator TM " in conditions approximating those found in Titan's atmosphere. Saturn's moon, Titan, is attracting intense scientific interest. This has led to wide interest in exploring it with Aerobots, balloons or airships. Their function would be similar to the Rovers exploring Mars, but instead of moving laboriously across the rough terrain on wheels, they would float freely from location to location. To design any balloon or airship it is essential to know the temperature of the lifting gas as this influences the volume of the gas, which in turn influences the lift. To determine this temperature it is necessary to know how heat is transferred between the craft and its surroundings. Heat transfer for existing balloons is well understood. However, Titan conditions are utterly different from those in which balloons have ever been flown, so heat transfer rates cannot currently be calculated. In particular, thermal radiation accounts for most heat transfer for existing balloons but over Titan heat transfer will be dominated by convection. To be able to make these fundamental calculations, it is necessary to get fundamental experimental data. This is being obtained by flying balloons in a Simulator filled with nitrogen gas at very low temperature, about 95° K / minus 180° C, typical of Titan's temperatures. Because the gas in the Simulator is so cold, operating at atmospheric pressure the density is close to that of Titan's atmosphere. "The Titan Sky Simulator TM " has an open interior approximately 4.5 meter tall and 2.5 meters square. It has already been operated at 95° K/-180° C. By the time of the Conference it is fully expected to have data to present from actual balloons flying at this temperature. Perhaps the most important purpose of this testing is to validate numerical [computational fluid dynamics] models being developed by Tim Colonius of Caltech. These numerical

  3. Musical ensembles in Ancient Mesapotamia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krispijn, T.J.H.; Dumbrill, R.; Finkel, I.

    2010-01-01

    Identification of musical instruments from ancient Mesopotamia by comparing musical ensembles attested in Sumerian and Akkadian texts with depicted ensembles. Lexicographical contributions to the Sumerian and Akkadian lexicon.

  4. Eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature annual cycle in the Kiel climate model: simulation benefits from enhancing atmospheric resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wengel, C.; Latif, M.; Park, W.; Harlaß, J.; Bayr, T.

    2018-05-01

    A long-standing difficulty of climate models is to capture the annual cycle (AC) of eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) sea surface temperature (SST). In this study, we first examine the EEP SST AC in a set of integrations of the coupled Kiel Climate Model, in which only atmosphere model resolution differs. When employing coarse horizontal and vertical atmospheric resolution, significant biases in the EEP SST AC are observed. These are reflected in an erroneous timing of the cold tongue's onset and termination as well as in an underestimation of the boreal spring warming amplitude. A large portion of these biases are linked to a wrong simulation of zonal surface winds, which can be traced back to precipitation biases on both sides of the equator and an erroneous low-level atmospheric circulation over land. Part of the SST biases also is related to shortwave radiation biases related to cloud cover biases. Both wind and cloud cover biases are inherent to the atmospheric component, as shown by companion uncoupled atmosphere model integrations forced by observed SSTs. Enhancing atmosphere model resolution, horizontal and vertical, markedly reduces zonal wind and cloud cover biases in coupled as well as uncoupled mode and generally improves simulation of the EEP SST AC. Enhanced atmospheric resolution reduces convection biases and improves simulation of surface winds over land. Analysis of a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) reveals that in these models, very similar mechanisms are at work in driving EEP SST AC biases.

  5. Comparison of OH reactivity measurements in the atmospheric simulation chamber SAPHIR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuchs, Hendrik; Novelli, Anna; Rolletter, Michael; Hofzumahaus, Andreas; Pfannerstill, Eva Y.; Kessel, Stephan; Edtbauer, Achim; Williams, Jonathan; Michoud, Vincent; Dusanter, Sebastien; Locoge, Nadine; Zannoni, Nora; Gros, Valerie; Truong, Francois; Sarda-Esteve, Roland; Cryer, Danny R.; Brumby, Charlotte A.; Whalley, Lisa K.; Stone, Daniel; Seakins, Paul W.; Heard, Dwayne E.; Schoemaecker, Coralie; Blocquet, Marion; Coudert, Sebastien; Batut, Sebastien; Fittschen, Christa; Thames, Alexander B.; Brune, William H.; Ernest, Cheryl; Harder, Hartwig; Muller, Jennifer B. A.; Elste, Thomas; Kubistin, Dagmar; Andres, Stefanie; Bohn, Birger; Hohaus, Thorsten; Holland, Frank; Li, Xin; Rohrer, Franz; Kiendler-Scharr, Astrid; Tillmann, Ralf; Wegener, Robert; Yu, Zhujun; Zou, Qi; Wahner, Andreas

    2017-10-01

    Hydroxyl (OH) radical reactivity (kOH) has been measured for 18 years with different measurement techniques. In order to compare the performances of instruments deployed in the field, two campaigns were conducted performing experiments in the atmospheric simulation chamber SAPHIR at Forschungszentrum Jülich in October 2015 and April 2016. Chemical conditions were chosen either to be representative of the atmosphere or to test potential limitations of instruments. All types of instruments that are currently used for atmospheric measurements were used in one of the two campaigns. The results of these campaigns demonstrate that OH reactivity can be accurately measured for a wide range of atmospherically relevant chemical conditions (e.g. water vapour, nitrogen oxides, various organic compounds) by all instruments. The precision of the measurements (limit of detection CRM) has a higher limit of detection of 2 s-1 at a time resolution of 10 to 15 min. The performances of the instruments were systematically tested by stepwise increasing, for example, the concentrations of carbon monoxide (CO), water vapour or nitric oxide (NO). In further experiments, mixtures of organic reactants were injected into the chamber to simulate urban and forested environments. Overall, the results show that the instruments are capable of measuring OH reactivity in the presence of CO, alkanes, alkenes and aromatic compounds. The transmission efficiency in Teflon inlet lines could have introduced systematic errors in measurements for low-volatile organic compounds in some instruments. CRM instruments exhibited a larger scatter in the data compared to the other instruments. The largest differences to reference measurements or to calculated reactivity were observed by CRM instruments in the presence of terpenes and oxygenated organic compounds (mixing ratio of OH reactants were up to 10 ppbv). In some of these experiments, only a small fraction of the reactivity is detected. The accuracy of CRM

  6. Extinction effects of atmospheric compositions on return signals of space-based lidar from numerical simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Lilin; Wang, Fu; Min, Min; Zhang, Ying; Guo, Jianping; Yu, Xiao; Chen, Binglong; Zhao, Yiming; Wang, Lidong

    2018-05-01

    The atmospheric composition induced extinction effect on return signals of space-based lidar remains incomprehensively understood, especially around 355 nm and 2051 nm channels. Here we simulated the extinction effects of atmospheric gases (e.g., H2O, CO2, and O3) and six types of aerosols (clean continental, clean marine, dust, polluted continental, polluted dust, and smoke) on return signals of space-based lidar system at 355 nm, 532 nm, 1064 nm, and 2051 nm channels, based on a robust lidar return signal simulator in combination with radiative transfer model (LBLRTM). Results show significant Rayleigh (molecular) scattering effects in the return signals at 355 nm and 532 nm channels, which markedly decays with increases in wavelength. The spectral transmittance of CO2 is nearly 0, yet the transmittance of H2O is approximately 100% at 2051 nm, which verifies this 2051 nm channel is suitable for CO2 retrieval. The spectral transmittance also reveals another possible window for CO2 and H2O detection at 2051.6 nm, since their transmittance both near 0.5. Moreover the corresponding Doppler return signals at 2051.6 nm channel can be used to retrieve wind field. Thus we suggest 2051 nm channel may better be centered at 2051.6 nm. Using the threshold for the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of return signals, the detection ranges for three representative distribution scenarios for the six types of aerosols at four typical lidar channels are determined. The results clearly show that high SNR values can be seen ubiquitously in the atmosphere ranging from the height of aerosol layer top to 25 km at 355 nm, and can been found at 2051.6 nm in the lower troposphere that highly depends on aerosol distribution scenario in the vertical. This indicates that the Doppler space-based lidar system with a double-channel joint detection mode is able to retrieve atmospheric wind field or profile from 0 to 25 km.

  7. Numerical Simulation of Ion Transport in a Nano-Electrospray Ion Source at Atmospheric Pressure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wei; Bajic, Steve; John, Benzi; Emerson, David R.

    2018-03-01

    Understanding ion transport properties from the ion source to the mass spectrometer (MS) is essential for optimizing device performance. Numerical simulation helps in understanding of ion transport properties and, furthermore, facilitates instrument design. In contrast to previously reported numerical studies, ion transport simulations in a continuous injection mode whilst considering realistic space-charge effects have been carried out. The flow field was solved using Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations, and a particle-in-cell (PIC) method was applied to solve a time-dependent electric field with local charge density. A series of ion transport simulations were carried out at different cone gas flow rates, ion source currents, and capillary voltages. A force evaluation analysis reveals that the electric force, the drag force, and the Brownian force are the three dominant forces acting on the ions. Both the experimental and simulation results indicate that cone gas flow rates of ≤250 slph (standard liter per hour) are important for high ion transmission efficiency, as higher cone gas flow rates reduce the ion signal significantly. The simulation results also show that the ion transmission efficiency reduces exponentially with an increased ion source current. Additionally, the ion loss due to space-charge effects has been found to be predominant at a higher ion source current, a lower capillary voltage, and a stronger cone gas counterflow. The interaction of the ion driving force, ion opposing force, and ion dispersion is discussed to illustrate ion transport mechanism in the ion source at atmospheric pressure. [Figure not available: see fulltext.

  8. Dynamic Mesh CFD Simulations of Orion Parachute Pendulum Motion During Atmospheric Entry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halstrom, Logan D.; Schwing, Alan M.; Robinson, Stephen K.

    2016-01-01

    This paper demonstrates the usage of computational fluid dynamics to study the effects of pendulum motion dynamics of the NASAs Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle parachute system on the stability of the vehicles atmospheric entry and decent. Significant computational fluid dynamics testing has already been performed at NASAs Johnson Space Center, but this study sought to investigate the effect of bulk motion of the parachute, such as pitching, on the induced aerodynamic forces. Simulations were performed with a moving grid geometry oscillating according to the parameters observed in flight tests. As with the previous simulations, OVERFLOW computational fluid dynamics tool is used with the assumption of rigid, non-permeable geometry. Comparison to parachute wind tunnel tests is included for a preliminary validation of the dynamic mesh model. Results show qualitative differences in the flow fields of the static and dynamic simulations and quantitative differences in the induced aerodynamic forces, suggesting that dynamic mesh modeling of the parachute pendulum motion may uncover additional dynamic effects.

  9. Simulations of future climate with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stendel, M.; Schmith, T.; Hesselbjerg Christensen, J.

    2001-01-01

    A coupled atmosphere/ocean general circulation model to study the time-dependent climate response to changing concentrations of greenhouse gases, chlorofluorocarbons and aerosols according to the new IPCC SRES scenarios A2 and B2 has been used. The results of these experiments are compared to an unforced 300-year control experiment. The changes in the last three decades of the scenario simulations (2071-2100) are furthermore compared to the simulation of present-day climate (1961-1990). In accordance with previous experiments we find that greenhouse warming is reduced when aerosol effects are considered. Sulfur emissions, however, are lower than in the IS92a scenario. Consequently, the greenhouse warming effect, which leads to a bigger temperature increase than in the GSDIO experiment can outweigh the aerosol cooling effect. The result shows that there still are serious difficulties and uncertainties in this type of model simulation. Those are partially due to oversimplifications in the model, concerning the radiative properties of aerosols in particular, and therefore the indirect aerosol effect. Another inherent problem, however, is the uncertainty in the scenarios themselves. This is the case for short-lived substances with an inhomogeneous spatial and temporal distribution, such as aerosols. Therefore, on a decadal horizon, changes in the emissions of those substance can exert a significant effect on anthropogenic climate change. (LN)

  10. Atmospheric Simulations Using OGCM-Assimilation SST: Influence of the Wintertime Japan Sea on Monthly Precipitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masaru Yamamoto Naoki Hirose

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Temperature data for the Japan Sea obtained from ocean data assimilation modeling is applied to atmospheric simulations of monthly precipitation for January 2005. Because the volume of flow of the Tsushima Warm Current was large during the winter season, the sea surface temperature (SST and coastal precipitation were higher in comparison with those in 2003. In order to evaluate influence of SST on monthly precipitation, we use surface temperatures of the Japan Sea in 2003 and 2005 for comparative simulations of precipitation for January 2005. The precipitation in experiment C (using cool SST data in 2003 is smaller than that in experiment W (using warm SST data in 2005 in a large part of the sea area, since the small evaporation results from the low SST over the upstream area of northwesterly winter monsoon. In the domain of 33.67 - 45.82°N and 125.89 - 142.9°E, the averaged evaporation and precipitation in experiment C are 10% and 13% smaller than those in experiment W, respectively. About half of the difference between the precipitations observed for January 2003 and 2005 in a heavy snow area is equal to the difference between the two simulations. Our results show that the mesoscale SST difference between 2003 and 2005 is related to the local difference of monthly precipitation.

  11. Simulated atmospheric disperison of radioactive material released in an urban area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akins, R.E.; Church, H.W.; Tierney, M.S.

    1977-01-01

    A combination of Gaussian plume and particle-in-cell techniques is used to simulate the atmospheric transport and dispersion of a puff release of radioactive material. The release is caused by an accident that is assumed to occur during the shipment of the radioactive material through central New York City. The simulation provides estimates of volumetric and surface concentrations of the dispersed material that are used to predict radiation doses incurred by the City's population in the event of an accidental release. In the simulation, the release point is arbitrary and the material is assumed to be either a gas or fine particles. The Gaussian plume model follows cloud concentrations from the release time until times when transport over distances up to 500 m has been achieved. The released cloud may stabilize at street level or above the mean buildings height; at a street intersection or in the middle of the block. The possibility of the formation of multiple clouds, owing to circumstances of wind flow direction and street geometry, is allowed

  12. Simulation models: a current indispensable tool in studies of the continuous water-soil-plant - atmosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopez Seijas, Teresa; Gonzalez, Felicita; Cid, G.; Osorio, Maria de los A.; Ruiz, Maria Elena

    2008-01-01

    Full text: This work assesses the current use of simulation models as a tool useful and indispensable for the advancement in the research and study of the processes related to the continuous water-soil - plant-atmosphere. In recent years they have reported in the literature many jobs where these modeling tools are used as a support to the decision-making process of companies or organizations in the agricultural sphere and in Special for the design of optimal management of irrigation and fertilization strategies of the crops. Summarizes some of the latest applications reported with respect to the use of water transfers and solutes, such simulation models mainly to nitrate leaching and groundwater contamination problems. On the other hand also summarizes important applications of simulation models of growth of cultivation for the prediction of effects on the performance of different conditions of water stress, and finally some other applications on the management of the different irrigation technologies as kingpins, superfiail irrigation and drip irrigation. Refer also the main work carried out in Cuba. (author)

  13. Testing FSO WDM communication system in simulation software optiwave OptiSystem in different atmospheric environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanderka, Ales; Hajek, Lukas; Bednarek, Lukas; Latal, Jan; Vitasek, Jan; Hejduk, Stanislav; Vasinek, Vladimir

    2016-09-01

    In this article the author's team deals with using Wavelength Division Multiplexing (WDM) for Free Space Optical (FSO) Communications. In FSO communication occurs due to the influence of atmospheric effect (attenuation, and fluctuation of the received power signal, influence turbulence) and the WDM channel suffers from interchannel crosstalk. There is considered only the one direction. The behavior FSO link was tested for one or eight channels. Here we will be dealing with modulation schemes OOK (On-Off keying), QAM (Quadrature Amplitude Modulation) and Subcarrier Intensity Modulation (SIM) based on a BPSK (Binary Phase Shift Keying). Simulation software OptiSystem 14 was used for tasting. For simulation some parameters were set according to real FSO link such as the datarate 1.25 Gbps, link range 1.4 km. Simulated FSO link used wavelength of 1550 nm with 0.8 nm spacing. There is obtained the influence of crosstalk and modulation format for the BER, depending on the amount of turbulence in the propagation medium.

  14. Rainfall estimation with TFR model using Ensemble Kalman filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asyiqotur Rohmah, Nabila; Apriliani, Erna

    2018-03-01

    Rainfall fluctuation can affect condition of other environment, correlated with economic activity and public health. The increasing of global average temperature is influenced by the increasing of CO2 in the atmosphere, which caused climate change. Meanwhile, the forests as carbon sinks that help keep the carbon cycle and climate change mitigation. Climate change caused by rainfall intensity deviations can affect the economy of a region, and even countries. It encourages research on rainfall associated with an area of forest. In this study, the mathematics model that used is a model which describes the global temperatures, forest cover, and seasonal rainfall called the TFR (temperature, forest cover, and rainfall) model. The model will be discretized first, and then it will be estimated by the method of Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF). The result shows that the more ensembles used in estimation, the better the result is. Also, the accurateness of simulation result is influenced by measurement variable. If a variable is measurement data, the result of simulation is better.

  15. Simulated solar cycle effects on the middle atmosphere: WACCM3 Versus WACCM4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peck, E. D.; Randall, C. E.; Harvey, V. L.; Marsh, D. R.

    2015-06-01

    The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 4 (WACCM4) is used to quantify solar cycle impacts, including both irradiance and particle precipitation, on the middle atmosphere. Results are compared to previous work using WACCM version 3 (WACCM3) to estimate the sensitivity of simulated solar cycle effects to model modifications. The residual circulation in WACCM4 is stronger than in WACCM3, leading to larger solar cycle effects from energetic particle precipitation; this impacts polar stratospheric odd nitrogen and ozone, as well as polar mesospheric temperatures. The cold pole problem, which is present in both versions, is exacerbated in WACCM4, leading to more ozone loss in the Antarctic stratosphere. Relative to WACCM3, a westerly shift in the WACCM4 zonal winds in the tropical stratosphere and mesosphere, and a strengthening and poleward shift of the Antarctic polar night jet, are attributed to inclusion of the QBO and changes in the gravity wave parameterization in WACCM4. Solar cycle effects in WACCM3 and WACCM4 are qualitatively similar. However, the EPP-induced increase from solar minimum to solar maximum in polar stratospheric NOy is about twice as large in WACCM4 as in WACCM3; correspondingly, maximum increases in polar O3 loss from solar min to solar max are more than twice as large in WACCM4. This does not cause large differences in the WACCM3 versus WACCM4 solar cycle responses in temperature and wind. Overall, these results provide a framework for future studies using WACCM to analyze the impacts of the solar cycle on the middle atmosphere.

  16. Numerical simulation and variational data assimilation for atmospheric dispersion of pollutants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quelo, Denis

    2004-01-01

    This work has led to the development of a three-dimensional chemistry-transport model Polair3D which simulates photochemistry. Model-to-data comparison of ozone and nitrogen oxides measurements over Lille in 1998 has proven its reliability at regional scale. 4 D-var data assimilation has been implemented. It relies on the adjoint model of Polair3D obtained through automatic differentiation. An application of inverse modelling of emissions over Lille with real measurements has been performed. It has proven that the inversion of temporal parameters of nitrogen oxides emissions leads to a significant improvement of forecasts. The so-called second-order sensitivity allows to study the sensitivity of the inversion with respect to the data assimilation system itself by computing its conditioning. This is illustrated by two test cases: short-range dispersion of radionuclides and gas-phase atmospheric chemistry characterized by a wide range of timescales. (author) [fr

  17. Numerical simulation and variational data assimilation for atmospheric dispersion of pollutants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quelo, D.

    2004-12-01

    This work has led to the development of a three-dimensional chemistry-transport model Polair3D which simulates photochemistry. Model-to-data comparison of ozone and nitrogen oxides measurements over the city of Lille in 1998 has proven its reliability at regional scale. 4-dimensional-variational data assimilation has been implemented. It relies on the adjoint model of Polair3D obtained through automatic differentiation. An application of inverse modelling of emissions over Lille city with real measurements has been performed. It has proven that the inversion of temporal parameters of nitrogen oxides emissions leads to a significant improvement of forecasts. The so-called second-order sensitivity allows the study of the sensitivity of the inversion with respect to the data assimilation system itself by computing its conditioning. This is illustrated by two test cases: short-range dispersion of radionuclides and gas-phase atmospheric chemistry characterized by a wide range of timescales. (author)

  18. A New Code SORD for Simulation of Polarized Light Scattering in the Earth Atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korkin, Sergey; Lyapustin, Alexei; Sinyuk, Aliaksandr; Holben, Brent

    2016-01-01

    We report a new publicly available radiative transfer (RT) code for numerical simulation of polarized light scattering in plane-parallel atmosphere of the Earth. Using 44 benchmark tests, we prove high accuracy of the new RT code, SORD (Successive ORDers of scattering). We describe capabilities of SORD and show run time for each test on two different machines. At present, SORD is supposed to work as part of the Aerosol Robotic NETwork (AERONET) inversion algorithm. For natural integration with the AERONET software, SORD is coded in Fortran 90/95. The code is available by email request from the corresponding (first) author or from ftp://climate1.gsfc.nasa.gov/skorkin/SORD/.

  19. A numerical simulation of 129I in the atmosphere emitted from nuclear fuel reprocessing plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nishizawa, Masato; Suzuki, Takashi; Nagai, Haruyasu; Togawa, Orihiko

    2010-01-01

    A global chemical transport model, MOZART-4, is applied to investigate the behavior of 129 I emitted from nuclear fuel reprocessing plants in Europe (Sellafield in the UK and La Hague in France). The result of numerical simulation for more than fifty-year period from the 1950s is validated by comparison with measurements of 129 I around the world and analyzed to clarify the characteristic of the distributions of concentration and deposition of 129 I. The modeled concentrations of 129 I in precipitation in Europe and the United States and inventories in the seawater around Japan and the Gulf of Mexico are in the same order as measurements. the emitted 129 I to the atmosphere is distributed all over the Northern Hemisphere due mainly to the prevailing westerlies and can be an important source of supply of artificial 129 I for the seawater remote from the point source such as a nuclear fuel reprocessing plant. (author)

  20. Assessing Uncertainty in Deep Learning Techniques that Identify Atmospheric Rivers in Climate Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahesh, A.; Mudigonda, M.; Kim, S. K.; Kashinath, K.; Kahou, S.; Michalski, V.; Williams, D. N.; Liu, Y.; Prabhat, M.; Loring, B.; O'Brien, T. A.; Collins, W. D.

    2017-12-01

    Atmospheric rivers (ARs) can be the difference between CA facing drought or hurricane-level storms. ARs are a form of extreme weather defined as long, narrow columns of moisture which transport water vapor outside the tropics. When they make landfall, they release the vapor as rain or snow. Convolutional neural networks (CNNs), a machine learning technique that uses filters to recognize features, are the leading computer vision mechanism for classifying multichannel images. CNNs have been proven to be effective in identifying extreme weather events in climate simulation output (Liu et. al. 2016, ABDA'16, http://bit.ly/2hlrFNV). Here, we compare three different CNN architectures, tuned with different hyperparameters and training schemes. We compare two-layer, three-layer, four-layer, and sixteen-layer CNNs' ability to recognize ARs in Community Atmospheric Model version 5 output, and we explore the ability of data augmentation and pre-trained models to increase the accuracy of the classifier. Because pre-training the model with regular images (i.e. benches, stoves, and dogs) yielded the highest accuracy rate, this strategy, also known as transfer learning, may be vital in future scientific CNNs, which likely will not have access to a large labelled training dataset. By choosing the most effective CNN architecture, climate scientists can build an accurate historical database of ARs, which can be used to develop a predictive understanding of these phenomena.

  1. Atmospheric fluxes and energy spectra of positive and negative muons from Monte-Carlo simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vulpescu, B.; Brancus, I.M.; Badea, A.F.; Duma, M.; Bozdog, H.; Petru, M.; Rebel, H.; Weintz, J.; Mathes, H.J.; Haungs, A.; Roth, M.

    1999-01-01

    Cosmic ray muons observed with detectors placed at the ground level originate from the decay of mesons produced by interactions of high energy cosmic ray primaries with air nuclei, mainly due to the decay of charged pions and kaons, processes which lead also to the production of atmospheric neutrinos. Prompted by recent accurate measurements of the charge ratio of atmospheric muons, the flux and energy spectra of positive and negative muons have been studied on the basis of Monte-Carlo simulations (CORSIKA) of the EAS development, using the GHEISHA and VENUS model as generators. The results have been analysed and compared with data under the aspect of their sensitivity to details of the hadronic interaction, in particular in the 3 GeV/n - 20 TeV/n region. The muon charge ratio proves to be a sensitive test quantity for the production model and propagation and it exhibits peculiar features at low energies (< 1 GeV). Results are shown, from magnetic spectrometer experiments in the difficult region of low momenta as well as the precise values obtained with the WILLI detector by observing the lifetime of negative muons stopped in material. The CORSIKA predictions on the charge ratio show a drop below 1 for very low muon momentum and needs further experimental investigations. The EAST-WEST effect is characteristic for low muon momenta and is well reproduced by simulations. The WILLI detector is planned to be developed in a new configuration, being able to investigate with high accuracy the muon charge ratio at different zenithal and azimuthal directions. (authors)

  2. On the Structure and Adjustment of Inversion-Capped Neutral Atmospheric Boundary-Layer Flows: Large-Eddy Simulation Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Jesper Grønnegaard; Gryning, Sven-Erik; Kelly, Mark C.

    2014-01-01

    A range of large-eddy simulations, with differing free atmosphere stratification and zero or slightly positive surface heat flux, is investigated to improve understanding of the neutral and near-neutral, inversion-capped, horizontally homogeneous, barotropic atmospheric boundary layer with emphasis...... on the upper region. We find that an adjustment time of at least 16 h is needed for the simulated flow to reach a quasi-steady state. The boundary layer continues to grow, but at a slow rate that changes little after 8 h of simulation time. A common feature of the neutral simulations is the development...... of a super-geostrophic jet near the top of the boundary layer. The analytical wind-shear models included do not account for such a jet, and the best agreement with simulated wind shear is seen in cases with weak stratification above the boundary layer. Increasing the surface heat flux decreases the magnitude...

  3. Ensemble Data Mining Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oza, Nikunj C.

    2004-01-01

    Ensemble Data Mining Methods, also known as Committee Methods or Model Combiners, are machine learning methods that leverage the power of multiple models to achieve better prediction accuracy than any of the individual models could on their own. The basic goal when designing an ensemble is the same as when establishing a committee of people: each member of the committee should be as competent as possible, but the members should be complementary to one another. If the members are not complementary, Le., if they always agree, then the committee is unnecessary---any one member is sufficient. If the members are complementary, then when one or a few members make an error, the probability is high that the remaining members can correct this error. Research in ensemble methods has largely revolved around designing ensembles consisting of competent yet complementary models.

  4. Ensemble Data Mining Methods

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Ensemble Data Mining Methods, also known as Committee Methods or Model Combiners, are machine learning methods that leverage the power of multiple models to achieve...

  5. Ensembl variation resources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marin-Garcia Pablo

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The maturing field of genomics is rapidly increasing the number of sequenced genomes and producing more information from those previously sequenced. Much of this additional information is variation data derived from sampling multiple individuals of a given species with the goal of discovering new variants and characterising the population frequencies of the variants that are already known. These data have immense value for many studies, including those designed to understand evolution and connect genotype to phenotype. Maximising the utility of the data requires that it be stored in an accessible manner that facilitates the integration of variation data with other genome resources such as gene annotation and comparative genomics. Description The Ensembl project provides comprehensive and integrated variation resources for a wide variety of chordate genomes. This paper provides a detailed description of the sources of data and the methods for creating the Ensembl variation databases. It also explores the utility of the information by explaining the range of query options available, from using interactive web displays, to online data mining tools and connecting directly to the data servers programmatically. It gives a good overview of the variation resources and future plans for expanding the variation data within Ensembl. Conclusions Variation data is an important key to understanding the functional and phenotypic differences between individuals. The development of new sequencing and genotyping technologies is greatly increasing the amount of variation data known for almost all genomes. The Ensembl variation resources are integrated into the Ensembl genome browser and provide a comprehensive way to access this data in the context of a widely used genome bioinformatics system. All Ensembl data is freely available at http://www.ensembl.org and from the public MySQL database server at ensembldb.ensembl.org.

  6. HGSYSTEMUF6, Simulating Dispersion Due to Atmospheric Release of Uranium Hexafluoride (UF6)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanna, G; Chang, J.C.; Zhang, J.X.; Bloom, S.G.; Goode, W.D. Jr; Lombardi, D.A.; Yambert, M.W.

    2001-01-01

    1 - Description of program or function: HGSYSTEMUF6 is a suite of models designed for use in estimating consequences associated with accidental, atmospheric release of Uranium Hexafluoride (UF 6 ) and its reaction products, namely Hydrogen Fluoride (HF), and other non-reactive contaminants which are either negatively, neutrally, or positively buoyant. It is based on HGSYSTEM Version 3.0 of Shell Research LTD., and contains specific algorithms for the treatment of UF 6 chemistry and thermodynamics. HGSYSTEMUF6 contains algorithms for the treatment of dense gases, dry and wet deposition, effects due to the presence of buildings (canyon and wake), plume lift-off, and the effects of complex terrain. The models components of the suite include (1) AEROPLUME/RK, used to model near-field dispersion from pressurized two-phase jet releases of UF6 and its reaction products, (2) HEGADAS/UF6 for simulating dense, ground based release of UF 6 , (3) PGPLUME for simulation of passive, neutrally buoyant plumes (4) UF6Mixer for modeling warm, potentially reactive, ground-level releases of UF 6 from buildings, and (5) WAKE, used to model elevated and ground-level releases into building wake cavities of non-reactive plumes that are either neutrally or positively buoyant. 2 - Methods: The atmospheric release and transport of UF 6 is a complicated process involving the interaction between dispersion, chemical and thermodynamic processes. This process is characterized by four separate stages (flash, sublimation, chemical reaction entrainment and passive dispersion) in which one or more of these processes dominate. The various models contained in the suite are applicable to one or more of these stages. For example, for modeling reactive, multiphase releases of UF 6 , the AEROPLUME/RK component employs a process-splitting scheme which numerically integrates the differential equations governing dispersion, UF 6 chemistry, and thermodynamics. This algorithm is based on the assumption that

  7. Comparison of OH Reactivity Instruments in the Atmosphere Simulation Chamber SAPHIR.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuchs, H.; Novelli, A.; Rolletter, M.; Hofzumahaus, A.; Pfannerstill, E.; Edtbauer, A.; Kessel, S.; Williams, J.; Michoud, V.; Dusanter, S.; Locoge, N.; Zannoni, N.; Gros, V.; Truong, F.; Sarda Esteve, R.; Cryer, D. R.; Brumby, C.; Whalley, L.; Stone, D. J.; Seakins, P. W.; Heard, D. E.; Schoemaecker, C.; Blocquet, M.; Fittschen, C. M.; Thames, A. B.; Coudert, S.; Brune, W. H.; Batut, S.; Tatum Ernest, C.; Harder, H.; Elste, T.; Bohn, B.; Hohaus, T.; Holland, F.; Muller, J. B. A.; Li, X.; Rohrer, F.; Kubistin, D.; Kiendler-Scharr, A.; Tillmann, R.; Andres, S.; Wegener, R.; Yu, Z.; Zou, Q.; Wahner, A.

    2017-12-01

    Two campaigns were conducted performing experiments in the atmospheric simulation chamber SAPHIR at Forschungszentrum Jülich in October 2015 and April 2016 to compare hydroxyl (OH) radical reactivity (kOH) measurements. Chemical conditions were chosen either to be representative of the atmosphere or to test potential limitations of instruments. The results of these campaigns demonstrate that OH reactivity can be accurately measured for a wide range of atmospherically relevant chemical conditions (e.g. water vapor, nitrogen oxides, various organic compounds) by all instruments. The precision of the measurements is higher for instruments directly detecting hydroxyl radicals (OH), whereas the indirect Comparative Reactivity Method (CRM) has a higher limit of detection of 2s-1 at a time resolution of 10 to 15 min. The performances of the instruments were systematically tested by stepwise increasing, for example, the concentrations of carbon monoxide (CO), water vapor or nitric oxide (NO). In further experiments, mixtures of organic reactants were injected in the chamber to simulate urban and forested environments. Overall, the results show that instruments are capable of measuring OH reactivity in the presence of CO, alkanes, alkenes and aromatic compounds. The transmission efficiency in Teflon inlet lines could have introduced systematic errors in measurements for low-volatile organic compounds in some instruments. CRM instruments exhibited a larger scatter in the data compared to the other instruments. The largest differences to the reference were observed by CRM instruments in the presence of terpenes and oxygenated organic compounds. In some of these experiments, only a small fraction of the reactivity is detected. The accuracy of CRM measurements is most likely limited by the corrections that need to be applied in order to account for known effects of, for example, deviations from pseudo-first order conditions, nitrogen oxides or water vapor on the measurement

  8. Arctic sea ice area changes in CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate models’ ensembles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. A. Semenov

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The shrinking Arctic sea ice cover observed during the last decades is probably the clearest manifestation of ongoing climate change. While climate models in general reproduce the sea ice retreat in the Arctic during the 20th century and simulate further sea ice area loss during the 21st century in response to anthropogenic forcing, the models suffer from large biases and the results exhibit considerable spread. Here, we compare results from the two last generations of climate models, CMIP3 and CMIP5, with respect to total and regional Arctic sea ice change. Different characteristics of sea ice area (SIA in March and September have been analysed for the Entire Arctic, Central Arctic and Barents Sea. Further, the sensitivity of SIA to changes in Northern Hemisphere (NH temperature is investigated and dynamical links between SIA and some atmospheric variability modes are assessed.CMIP3 (SRES A1B and CMIP5 (RCP8.5 models not only simulate a coherent decline of the Arctic SIA but also depict consistent changes in the SIA seasonal cycle. The spatial patterns of SIC variability improve in CMIP5 ensemble, most noticeably in summer when compared to HadISST1 data. A better simulation of summer SIA in the Entire Arctic by CMIP5 models is accompanied by a slightly increased bias for winter season in comparison to CMIP3 ensemble. SIA in the Barents Sea is strongly overestimated by the majority of CMIP3 and CMIP5 models, and projected SIA changes are characterized by a high uncertainty. Both CMIP ensembles depict a significant link between the SIA and NH temperature changes indicating that a part of inter-ensemble SIA spread comes from different temperature sensitivity to anthropogenic forcing. The results suggest that, in general, a sensitivity of SIA to external forcing is enhanced in CMIP5 models. Arctic SIA interannual variability in the end of the 20th century is on average well simulated by both ensembles. To the end of the 21st century, September

  9. Understanding ensemble protein folding at atomic detail

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wallin, Stefan; Shakhnovich, Eugene I

    2008-01-01

    Although far from routine, simulating the folding of specific short protein chains on the computer, at a detailed atomic level, is starting to become a reality. This remarkable progress, which has been made over the last decade or so, allows a fundamental aspect of the protein folding process to be addressed, namely its statistical nature. In order to make quantitative comparisons with experimental kinetic data a complete ensemble view of folding must be achieved, with key observables averaged over the large number of microscopically different folding trajectories available to a protein chain. Here we review recent advances in atomic-level protein folding simulations and the new insight provided by them into the protein folding process. An important element in understanding ensemble folding kinetics are methods for analyzing many separate folding trajectories, and we discuss techniques developed to condense the large amount of information contained in an ensemble of trajectories into a manageable picture of the folding process. (topical review)

  10. Longitudinal biases in the Seychelles Dome simulated by 35 ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagura, Motoki; Sasaki, Wataru; Tozuka, Tomoki; Luo, Jing-Jia; Behera, Swadhin K.; Yamagata, Toshio

    2013-02-01

    Seychelles Dome refers to the shallow climatological thermocline in the southwestern Indian Ocean, where ocean wave dynamics efficiently affect sea surface temperature, allowing sea surface temperature anomalies to be predicted up to 1-2 years in advance. Accurate reproduction of the dome by ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) is essential for successful seasonal predictions in the Indian Ocean. This study examines the Seychelles Dome as simulated by 35 CGCMs, including models used in phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Among the 35 CGCMs, 14 models erroneously produce an upwelling dome in the eastern half of the basin whereas the observed Seychelles Dome is located in the southwestern tropical Indian Ocean. The annual mean Ekman pumping velocity in these models is found to be almost zero in the southern off-equatorial region. This result is inconsistent with observations, in which Ekman upwelling acts as the main cause of the Seychelles Dome. In the models reproducing an eastward-displaced dome, easterly biases are prominent along the equator in boreal summer and fall, which result in shallow thermocline biases along the Java and Sumatra coasts via Kelvin wave dynamics and a spurious upwelling dome in the region. Compared to the CMIP3 models, the CMIP5 models are even worse in simulating the dome longitudes.

  11. The atmosphere simulation chamber SAPHIR: a tool for the investigation of photochemistry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brauers, T.; Bohn, B.; Johnen, F.-J.; Rohrer, R.; Rodriguez Bares, S.; Tillmann, R.; Wahner, A.

    2003-04-01

    On the campus of the Forschungszentrum Jülich we constructed SAPHIR (Simulation of Atmospheric PHotochemistry In a large Reaction Chamber) which was accomplished in fall 2001. The chamber consists of a 280-m^3 double-wall Teflon bag of cylindrical shape that is held by a steel frame. Typically 75% of the outside actinic flux (290~nm~--~420~nm) is available inside the chamber. A louvre system allows switching between full sun light and dark within 40 s giving the opportunity to study relaxation processes of the photo chemical system. The SAPHIR chamber is equipped with a comprehensive set of sensitive instruments including the measurements of OH, HO_2, CO, hydrocarbons, aldehydes, nitrogen-oxides and solar radiation. Moreover, the modular concept of SAPHIR allows fast and flexible integration of new instruments and techniques. In this paper we will show the unique and new features of the SAPHIR chamber, namely the clean air supply and high purity water vapor supply providing a wide range of trace gas concentrations being accessible through the experiments. We will also present examples from the first year of SAPHIR experiment showing the scope of application from high quality instrument inter-comparison and kinetic studies to the simulation of complex mixtures of trace gases at ambient concentrations.

  12. Full Coupling Between the Atmosphere, Surface, and Subsurface for Integrated Hydrologic Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davison, Jason Hamilton; Hwang, Hyoun-Tae; Sudicky, Edward A.; Mallia, Derek V.; Lin, John C.

    2018-01-01

    An ever increasing community of earth system modelers is incorporating new physical processes into numerical models. This trend is facilitated by advancements in computational resources, improvements in simulation skill, and the desire to build numerical simulators that represent the water cycle with greater fidelity. In this quest to develop a state-of-the-art water cycle model, we coupled HydroGeoSphere (HGS), a 3-D control-volume finite element surface and variably saturated subsurface flow model that includes evapotranspiration processes, to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, a 3-D finite difference nonhydrostatic mesoscale atmospheric model. The two-way coupled model, referred to as HGS-WRF, exchanges the actual evapotranspiration fluxes and soil saturations calculated by HGS to WRF; conversely, the potential evapotranspiration and precipitation fluxes from WRF are passed to HGS. The flexible HGS-WRF coupling method allows for unique meshes used by each model, while maintaining mass and energy conservation between the domains. Furthermore, the HGS-WRF coupling implements a subtime stepping algorithm to minimize computational expense. As a demonstration of HGS-WRF's capabilities, we applied it to the California Basin and found a strong connection between the depth to the groundwater table and the latent heat fluxes across the land surface.

  13. Simulation of non-hydrostatic gravity wave propagation in the upper atmosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Deng

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The high-frequency and small horizontal scale gravity waves may be reflected and ducted in non-hydrostatic simulations, but usually propagate vertically in hydrostatic models. To examine gravity wave propagation, a preliminary study has been conducted with a global ionosphere–thermosphere model (GITM, which is a non-hydrostatic general circulation model for the upper atmosphere. GITM has been run regionally with a horizontal resolution of 0.2° long × 0.2° lat to resolve the gravity wave with wavelength of 250 km. A cosine wave oscillation with amplitude of 30 m s−1 has been applied to the zonal wind at the low boundary, and both high-frequency and low-frequency waves have been tested. In the high-frequency case, the gravity wave stays below 200 km, which indicates that the wave is reflected or ducted in propagation. The results are consistent with the theoretical analysis from the dispersion relationship when the wavelength is larger than the cutoff wavelength for the non-hydrostatic situation. However, the low-frequency wave propagates to the high altitudes during the whole simulation period, and the amplitude increases with height. This study shows that the non-hydrostatic model successfully reproduces the high-frequency gravity wave dissipation.

  14. An atmospheric turbulence and telescope simulator for the development of AOLI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puga, Marta; López, Roberto; King, David; Oscoz, Alejandro

    2014-08-01

    AOLI, Adaptive Optics Lucky Imager, is the next generation of extremely high resolution instruments in the optical range, combining the two more promising techniques: Adaptive optics and lucky imaging. The possibility of reaching fainter objects at maximum resolution implies a better use of weak energy on each lucky image. AOLI aims to achieve this by using an adaptive optics system to reduce the dispersion that seeing causes on the spot and therefore increasing the number of optimal images to accumulate, maximizing the efficiency of the lucky imaging technique. The complexity of developments in hardware, control and software for in-site telescope tests claim for a system to simulate the telescope performance. This paper outlines the requirements and a concept/preliminary design for the William Herschel Telescope (WHT) and atmospheric turbulence simulator. The design consists of pupil resemble, a variable intensity point source, phase plates and a focal plane mask to assist in the alignment, diagnostics and calibration of AOLI wavefront sensor, AO loop and science detectors, as well as enabling stand-alone test operation of AOLI.

  15. Interannual Tropical Rainfall Variability in General Circulation Model Simulations Associated with the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sperber, K. R.; Palmer, T. N.

    1996-11-01

    The interannual variability of rainfall over the Indian subcontinent, the African Sahel, and the Nordeste region of Brazil have been evaluated in 32 models for the period 1979-88 as part of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP). The interannual variations of Nordeste rainfall are the most readily captured, owing to the intimate link with Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperatures. The precipitation variations over India and the Sahel are less well simulated. Additionally, an Indian monsoon wind shear index was calculated for each model. Evaluation of the interannual variability of a wind shear index over the summer monsoon region indicates that the models exhibit greater fidelity in capturing the large-scale dynamic fluctuations than the regional-scale rainfall variations. A rainfall/SST teleconnection quality control was used to objectively stratify model performance. Skill scores improved for those models that qualitatively simulated the observed rainfall/El Niño- Southern Oscillation SST correlation pattern. This subset of models also had a rainfall climatology that was in better agreement with observations, indicating a link between systematic model error and the ability to simulate interannual variations.A suite of six European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) AMIP runs (differing only in their initial conditions) have also been examined. As observed, all-India rainfall was enhanced in 1988 relative to 1987 in each of these realizations. All-India rainfall variability during other years showed little or no predictability, possibly due to internal chaotic dynamics associated with intraseasonal monsoon fluctuations and/or unpredictable land surface process interactions. The interannual variations of Nordeste rainfall were best represented. The State University of New York at Albany/National Center for Atmospheric Research Genesis model was run in five initial condition realizations. In this model, the Nordeste rainfall

  16. Simulation of atmospheric krypton-85 transport to assess the detectability of clandestine nuclear reprocessing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ross, Jens Ole

    2010-02-02

    The radioactive noble gas krypton-85 is released into the atmosphere during reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel or irradiated breeding targets. This is a necessary step for plutonium separation. Therefore the {sup 85}Kr signature of reprocessing could possibly be used for the detection of undeclared nuclear facilities producing nuclear weaponusable material. The {sup 85}Kr content of the atmosphere has grown over the last decades as the emissions from military and civilian nuclear industry could not be compensated by the decay with a half-life of 10.76 years. In this study, the global {sup 85}Kr background distribution due to emissions of known reprocessing facilities for the period from 1971 until 2006 was simulated using the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5 applying the newest available annual emission data. The convective tracer transport scheme and the operator splitting for the physical calculations in the model were modified in order to guarantee physically correct results for tracer point sources, in particular non negative concentrations. An on-line routine controlling the {sup 85}Kr -budget in the model enforced exact mass conservation. The results of the simulation were evaluated by extensive comparison with measurements performed by the German Federal Office for Radiation Protection with very good agreement at most observation sites except those in the direct vicinity of {sup 85}Kr sources. Of particular interest for the {sup 85}Kr detection potential was the variability of {sup 85}Kr background concentrations which was evaluated for the first time in a global model. In addition, the interhemispheric transport as simulated by ECHAM5 was analyzed using a two-box model providing a mean exchange time of τ {sub ex} = 10.5 months. The analysis of τ{sub ex} over simulated 35 years indicates that in years with strong South Asian or African Monsoon the interhemispheric transport is faster during the monsoon season. A correlation analysis of

  17. Premar-2: a Monte Carlo code for radiative transport simulation in atmospheric environments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cupini, E. [ENEA, Centro Ricerche Ezio Clementel, Bologna, (Italy). Dipt. Innovazione

    1999-07-01

    The peculiarities of the PREMAR-2 code, aimed at radiation transport Monte Carlo simulation in atmospheric environments in the infrared-ultraviolet frequency range, are described. With respect to the previously developed PREMAR code, besides plane multilayers, spherical multilayers and finite sequences of vertical layers, each one with its own atmospheric behaviour, are foreseen in the new code, together with the refraction phenomenon, so that long range, highly slanted paths can now be more faithfully taken into account. A zenithal angular dependence of the albedo coefficient has moreover been introduced. Lidar systems, with spatially independent source and telescope, are allowed again to be simulated, and, in this latest version of the code, sensitivity analyses to be performed. According to this last feasibility, consequences on radiation transport of small perturbations in physical components of the atmospheric environment may be analyze and the related effects on searched results estimated. The availability of a library of physical data (reaction coefficients, phase functions and refraction indexes) is required by the code, providing the essential features of the environment of interest needed of the Monte Carlo simulation. Variance reducing techniques have been enhanced in the Premar-2 code, by introducing, for instance, a local forced collision technique, especially apt to be used in Lidar system simulations. Encouraging comparisons between code and experimental results carried out at the Brasimone Centre of ENEA, have so far been obtained, even if further checks of the code are to be performed. [Italian] Nel presente rapporto vengono descritte le principali caratteristiche del codice di calcolo PREMAR-2, che esegue la simulazione Montecarlo del trasporto della radiazione elettromagnetica nell'atmosfera, nell'intervallo di frequenza che va dall'infrarosso all'ultravioletto. Rispetto al codice PREMAR precedentemente sviluppato, il codice

  18. B33C-0612: Evaluation of Simulated Biospheric Carbon Dioxide Fluxes and Atmospheric Concentrations Using Global in Situ Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Philip, Sajeev; Johnson, Matthew S.; Potter, Christopher S.; Genovese, Vanessa

    2016-01-01

    Atmospheric mixing ratios of carbon dioxide (CO2) are largely controlled by anthropogenic emission sources and biospheric sources/sinks. Global biospheric fluxes of CO2 are controlled by complex processes facilitating the exchange of carbon between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. These processes which play a key role in these terrestrial ecosystem-atmosphere carbon exchanges are currently not fully understood, resulting in large uncertainties in the quantification of biospheric CO2 fluxes. Current models with these inherent deficiencies have difficulties simulating the global carbon cycle with high accuracy. We are developing a new modeling platform, GEOS-Chem-CASA by integrating the year-specific NASA-CASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration - Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach) biosphere model with the GEOS-Chem (Goddard Earth Observation System-Chemistry) chemical transport model to improve the simulation of atmosphere-terrestrial ecosystem carbon exchange. We use NASA-CASA to explicitly represent the exchange of CO2 between terrestrial ecosystem and atmosphere by replacing the baseline GEOS-Chem land net CO2 flux and forest biomass burning CO2 emissions. We will present the estimation and evaluation of these "bottom-up" land CO2 fluxes, simulated atmospheric mixing ratios, and forest disturbance changes over the last decade. In addition, we will present our initial comparison of atmospheric column-mean dry air mole fraction of CO2 predicted by the model and those retrieved from NASA's OCO-2 (Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2) satellite instrument and model-predicted surface CO2 mixing ratios with global in situ observations. This evaluation is the first step necessary for our future work planned to constrain the estimates of biospheric carbon fluxes through "top-down" inverse modeling, which will improve our understanding of the processes controlling atmosphere-terrestrial ecosystem greenhouse gas exchanges, especially over regions which lack in

  19. SIMULATIONS NUMERIQUES DE L'ATMOSPHERE URBAINE AVEC LE MODELE SUBMESO :
    APPLICATION A LA CAMPAGNE CLU-ESCOMPTE SUR L'AGGLOMERATION DE MARSEILLE

    OpenAIRE

    Leroyer , Sylvie

    2006-01-01

    In view of understanding and forecasting pollutant dispersion in urban areas, high resolution numerical simulations are performed. The aim is to reproduce atmospheric characteristics above complex urbanised site. An accurate method is developed to implement numerical simulations of the urban atmosphere based on three complementary tools, optimized on Marseille agglomeration example: the atmospheric Large Eddy Simulation model SUBMESO and the soil model for sub-meso scales, urban, SM2-U, and t...

  20. Spatial clustering of summer temperature maxima from the CNRM-CM5 climate model ensembles & E-OBS over Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margot Bador

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Reducing the dimensionality of the complex spatio-temporal variables associated with climate modeling, especially ensembles of climate models, is a challenging and important objective. For studies of detection and attribution, it is especially important to maintain information related to the extreme values of the atmospheric processes. Typical methods for data reduction involve summarizing climate model output information through means and variances, which does not preserve any information about the extremes. In order to help solve this challenge, a dependence summary measure appropriate for extreme values must be inferred. Here, we adapt one such measure from a recent study to a larger domain with a different variable and gridded data from observations and climate model ensembles, i.e. E-OBS observations and the CNRM-CM5 model. The handling of such ensembles of data is proposed, as well as a comparison of the spatial clusterings between two different ensembles, here a present-day and a future ensemble of climate simulations. This method yields valid information concerning extremes, while greatly reducing the data set.

  1. Comparison of OH reactivity measurements in the atmospheric simulation chamber SAPHIR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Fuchs

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Hydroxyl (OH radical reactivity (kOH has been measured for 18 years with different measurement techniques. In order to compare the performances of instruments deployed in the field, two campaigns were conducted performing experiments in the atmospheric simulation chamber SAPHIR at Forschungszentrum Jülich in October 2015 and April 2016. Chemical conditions were chosen either to be representative of the atmosphere or to test potential limitations of instruments. All types of instruments that are currently used for atmospheric measurements were used in one of the two campaigns. The results of these campaigns demonstrate that OH reactivity can be accurately measured for a wide range of atmospherically relevant chemical conditions (e.g. water vapour, nitrogen oxides, various organic compounds by all instruments. The precision of the measurements (limit of detection  < 1 s−1 at a time resolution of 30 s to a few minutes is higher for instruments directly detecting hydroxyl radicals, whereas the indirect comparative reactivity method (CRM has a higher limit of detection of 2 s−1 at a time resolution of 10 to 15 min. The performances of the instruments were systematically tested by stepwise increasing, for example, the concentrations of carbon monoxide (CO, water vapour or nitric oxide (NO. In further experiments, mixtures of organic reactants were injected into the chamber to simulate urban and forested environments. Overall, the results show that the instruments are capable of measuring OH reactivity in the presence of CO, alkanes, alkenes and aromatic compounds. The transmission efficiency in Teflon inlet lines could have introduced systematic errors in measurements for low-volatile organic compounds in some instruments. CRM instruments exhibited a larger scatter in the data compared to the other instruments. The largest differences to reference measurements or to calculated reactivity were observed by CRM instruments in

  2. Inter-annual variability of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations as simulated with global terrestrial biosphere models and an atmospheric transport model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fujita, Daisuke; Saeki, Tazu; Nakazawa, Takakiyo [Tohoku Univ., Sendai (Japan). Center for Atmospheric and Oceanic Studies; Ishizawa, Misa; Maksyutov, Shamil [Inst. for Global Change Research, Yokohama (Japan). Frontier Research System for Global Change; Thornton, Peter E. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States). Climate and Global Dynamics Div.

    2003-04-01

    Seasonal and inter-annual variations of atmospheric CO{sub 2} for the period from 1961 to 1997 have been simulated using a global tracer transport model driven by a new version of the Biome BioGeochemical Cycle model (Biome-BGC). Biome-BGC was forced by daily temperature and precipitation from the NCEP reanalysis dataset, and the calculated monthly-averaged CO{sub 2} fluxes were used as input to the global transport model. Results from an inter-comparison with the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach model (CASA) and the Simulation model of Carbon CYCLE in Land Ecosystems (Sim-CYCLE) model are also reported. The phase of the seasonal cycle in the Northern Hemisphere was reproduced generally well by Biome-BGC, although the amplitude was smaller compared to the observations and to the other biosphere models. The CO{sub 2} time series simulated by Biome-BGC were compared to the global CO{sub 2} concentration anomalies from the observations at Mauna Loa and the South Pole. The modeled concentration anomalies matched the phase of the inter-annual variations in the atmospheric CO{sub 2} observations; however, the modeled amplitude was lower than the observed value in several cases. The result suggests that a significant part of the inter-annual variability in the global carbon cycle can be accounted for by the terrestrial biosphere models. Simulations performed with another climate-based model, Sim-CYCLE, produced a larger amplitude of inter-annual variability in atmospheric CO{sub 2}, making the amplitude closer to the observed range, but with a more visible phase mismatch in a number of time periods. This may indicate the need to increase the Biome-BGC model sensitivity to seasonal and inter-annual changes in temperature and precipitation.

  3. Inter-annual variability of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations as simulated with global terrestrial biosphere models and an atmospheric transport model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fujita, Daisuke; Saeki, Tazu; Nakazawa, Takakiyo; Ishizawa, Misa; Maksyutov, Shamil; Thornton, Peter E.

    2003-01-01

    Seasonal and inter-annual variations of atmospheric CO 2 for the period from 1961 to 1997 have been simulated using a global tracer transport model driven by a new version of the Biome BioGeochemical Cycle model (Biome-BGC). Biome-BGC was forced by daily temperature and precipitation from the NCEP reanalysis dataset, and the calculated monthly-averaged CO 2 fluxes were used as input to the global transport model. Results from an inter-comparison with the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach model (CASA) and the Simulation model of Carbon CYCLE in Land Ecosystems (Sim-CYCLE) model are also reported. The phase of the seasonal cycle in the Northern Hemisphere was reproduced generally well by Biome-BGC, although the amplitude was smaller compared to the observations and to the other biosphere models. The CO 2 time series simulated by Biome-BGC were compared to the global CO 2 concentration anomalies from the observations at Mauna Loa and the South Pole. The modeled concentration anomalies matched the phase of the inter-annual variations in the atmospheric CO 2 observations; however, the modeled amplitude was lower than the observed value in several cases. The result suggests that a significant part of the inter-annual variability in the global carbon cycle can be accounted for by the terrestrial biosphere models. Simulations performed with another climate-based model, Sim-CYCLE, produced a larger amplitude of inter-annual variability in atmospheric CO 2 , making the amplitude closer to the observed range, but with a more visible phase mismatch in a number of time periods. This may indicate the need to increase the Biome-BGC model sensitivity to seasonal and inter-annual changes in temperature and precipitation

  4. Genetic Algorithm Optimized Neural Networks Ensemble as ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    NJD

    Improvements in neural network calibration models by a novel approach using neural network ensemble (NNE) for the simultaneous ... process by training a number of neural networks. .... Matlab® version 6.1 was employed for building principal component ... provide a fair simulation of calibration data set with some degree.

  5. Mechanism of climate change over South America during the LGM in coupled Ocean- Atmosphere model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khodri, M.

    2006-12-01

    On a regional perspective the database of proxy information for South America during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) shows large and regionally extensive changes of the mean climate and vegetation types over the Amazon basin. In some instances these changes were associated with decrease in the mean precipitation amount (and most probably in moist deep convection) over the Amazonian and South East Brazil monsoon regions and wetter mean conditions in present day drought-prone regions such as Northeast of Brazil (Nordeste). These changes have been interpreted as local responses to shift in the mean position and intensity of the Atlantic ITCZ due to glacial extratropical forcings or to changes in the South American Monsoons. However there are still two issues is the path to further understand the mechanism of climate change over South America during the LGM. The first is incomplete knowledge in both the modeling and observational communities of how the moist deep convection over the Amazonian region respond to glacial boundary condition and how this changes might interact with the meridional shift of rainfall over Nordeste and Atlantic Ocean. The second is our understanding of how ocean-atmosphere changes that do occur in the tropical Pacific region influence the climate of the remainder of the planet and on a regional way over South America. Using PMIP-2 coupled Ocean-Atmosphere simulations for LGM and comparison to paleodata we show that hydrological cycle changes over the Amazon basin might be independent of their Atlantic Ocean counterpart, while teleconnections with Pacific Ocean might have played a significant role in the observed changes over tropical South America.

  6. A simulated Linear Mixture Model to Improve Classification Accuracy of Satellite Data Utilizing Degradation of Atmospheric Effect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    WIDAD Elmahboub

    2005-02-01

    Full Text Available Researchers in remote sensing have attempted to increase the accuracy of land cover information extracted from remotely sensed imagery. Factors that influence the supervised and unsupervised classification accuracy are the presence of atmospheric effect and mixed pixel information. A linear mixture simulated model experiment is generated to simulate real world data with known end member spectral sets and class cover proportions (CCP. The CCP were initially generated by a random number generator and normalized to make the sum of the class proportions equal to 1.0 using MATLAB program. Random noise was intentionally added to pixel values using different combinations of noise levels to simulate a real world data set. The atmospheric scattering error is computed for each pixel value for three generated images with SPOT data. Accuracy can either be classified or misclassified. Results portrayed great improvement in classified accuracy, for example, in image 1, misclassified pixels due to atmospheric noise is 41 %. Subsequent to the degradation of atmospheric effect, the misclassified pixels were reduced to 4 %. We can conclude that accuracy of classification can be improved by degradation of atmospheric noise.

  7. Forcing of global ocean models using an atmospheric boundary layer model: assessing consequences for the simulation of the AMOC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abel, Rafael; Boening, Claus

    2015-04-01

    Current practice in the atmospheric forcing of ocean model simulations can lead to unphysical behaviours. The problem lies in the bulk formulation of the turbulent air-sea fluxes in conjunction with a prescribed, and unresponsive, atmospheric state as given, e.g., by reanalysis products. This forcing formulation corresponds to assuming an atmosphere with infinite heat capacity, and effectively damps SST anomalies even on basin scales. It thus curtails an important negative feedback between meridional ocean heat transport and SST in the North Atlantic, rendering simulations of the AMOC in such models excessively sensitive to details in the freshwater fluxes. As a consequence, such simulations are known for spurious drift behaviors which can only partially controlled by introducing some (and sometimes strong) unphysical restoring of sea surface salinity. There have been several suggestions during the last 20 years for at least partially alleviating the problem by including some simplified model of the atmospheric boundary layer (AML) which allows a feedback of SST anomalies on the near-surface air temperature and humidity needed to calculate the surface fluxes. We here present simulations with a simple, only thermally active AML formulation (based on the 'CheapAML' proposed by Deremble et al., 2013) implemented in a global model configuration based on NEMO (ORCA05). In a suite of experiments building on the CORE-bulk forcing methodology, we examine some general features of the AML-solutions (in which only the winds are prescribed) in comparison to solutions with a prescribed atmosperic state. The focus is on the North Atlantic, where we find that the adaptation of the atmospheric temperature the simulated ocean state can lead to strong local modifications in the surface heat fluxes in frontal regions (e.g., the 'Northwest Corner'). We particularly assess the potential of the AML-forcing concept for obtaining AMOC-simulations with reduced spurious drift, without

  8. Comparison of energy fluxes at the land surface-atmosphere interface in an Alpine valley as simulated with different models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Grossi

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Within the framework of a research project coupling meteorological and hydrological models in mountainous areas a distributed Snow-Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere Transfer model was developed and applied to simulate the energy fluxes at the land surface – atmosphere interface in an Alpine valley (Toce Valley - North Italy during selected flood events in the last decade. Energy fluxes simulated by the distributed energy transfer model were compared with those simulated by a limited area meteorological model for the event of June 1997 and the differences in the spatial and temporal distribution. The Snow/Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere Transfer model was also applied to simulate the energy fluxes at the land surface-atmosphere interface for a single cell, assumed to be representative of the Siberia site (Toce Valley, where a micro-meteorological station was installed and operated for 2.5 months in autumn 1999. The Siberia site is very close to the Nosere site, where a standard meteorological station was measuring precipitation, air temperature and humidity, global and net radiation and wind speed during the same special observing period. Data recorded by the standard meteorological station were used to force the energy transfer model and simulate the point energy fluxes at the Siberia site, while turbulent fluxes observed at the Siberia site were used to derive the latent heat flux from the energy balance equation. Finally, the hourly evapotranspiration flux computed by this procedure was compared to the evapotranspiration flux simulated by the energy transfer model. Keywords: energy exchange processes, land surface-atmosphere interactions, turbulent fluxes

  9. Simulated nutrient dissolution of Asian aerosols in various atmospheric waters: Potential links to marine primary productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lingyan; Bi, Yanfeng; Zhang, Guosen; Liu, Sumei; Zhang, Jing; Xu, Zhaomeng; Ren, Jingling; Zhang, Guiling

    2017-09-01

    To probe the bioavailability and environmental mobility of aerosol nutrient elements (N, P, Si) in atmospheric water (rainwater, cloud and fog droplets), ten total suspended particulate (TSP) samples were collected at Fulong Mountain, Qingdao from prevailing air mass trajectory sources during four seasons. Then, a high time-resolution leaching experiment with simulated non-acidic atmospheric water (non-AAW, Milli-Q water, pH 5.5) and subsequently acidic atmospheric water (AAW, hydrochloric acid solution, pH 2) was performed. We found that regardless of the season or source, a monotonous decreasing pattern was observed in the dissolution of N, P and Si compounds in aerosols reacted with non-AAW, and the accumulated dissolved curves of P and Si fit a first-order kinetic model. No additional NO3- + NO2- dissolved out, while a small amount of NH4+ in Asian dust (AD) samples was released in AAW. The similar dissolution behaviour of P and Si from non-AAW to AAW can be explained by the Transition State Theory. The sources of aerosols related to various minerals were the natural reasons that affected the amounts of bioavailable phosphorus and silicon in aerosols (i.e., solubility), which can be explained by the dissolution rate constant of P and Si in non-AAW with lower values in mineral aerosols. The acid/particle ratio and particle/liquid ratio also have a large effect on the solubility of P and Si, which was implied by Pearson correlation analysis. Acid processing of aerosols may have great significance for marine areas with limited P and Si and post-acidification release increases of 1.1-10-fold for phosphorus and 1.2-29-fold for silicon. The decreasing mole ratio of P and Si in AAW indicates the possibility of shifting from a Si-limit to a P-limit in aerosols in the ocean, which promotes the growth of diatoms prior to other algal species.

  10. Ensemble Bayesian forecasting system Part I: Theory and algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herr, Henry D.; Krzysztofowicz, Roman

    2015-05-01

    The ensemble Bayesian forecasting system (EBFS), whose theory was published in 2001, is developed for the purpose of quantifying the total uncertainty about a discrete-time, continuous-state, non-stationary stochastic process such as a time series of stages, discharges, or volumes at a river gauge. The EBFS is built of three components: an input ensemble forecaster (IEF), which simulates the uncertainty associated with random inputs; a deterministic hydrologic model (of any complexity), which simulates physical processes within a river basin; and a hydrologic uncertainty processor (HUP), which simulates the hydrologic uncertainty (an aggregate of all uncertainties except input). It works as a Monte Carlo simulator: an ensemble of time series of inputs (e.g., precipitation amounts) generated by the IEF is transformed deterministically through a hydrologic model into an ensemble of time series of outputs, which is next transformed stochastically by the HUP into an ensemble of time series of predictands (e.g., river stages). Previous research indicated that in order to attain an acceptable sampling error, the ensemble size must be on the order of hundreds (for probabilistic river stage forecasts and probabilistic flood forecasts) or even thousands (for probabilistic stage transition forecasts). The computing time needed to run the hydrologic model this many times renders the straightforward simulations operationally infeasible. This motivates the development of the ensemble Bayesian forecasting system with randomization (EBFSR), which takes full advantage of the analytic meta-Gaussian HUP and generates multiple ensemble members after each run of the hydrologic model; this auxiliary randomization reduces the required size of the meteorological input ensemble and makes it operationally feasible to generate a Bayesian ensemble forecast of large size. Such a forecast quantifies the total uncertainty, is well calibrated against the prior (climatic) distribution of

  11. 'Lazy' quantum ensembles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parfionov, George; Zapatrin, Roman

    2006-01-01

    We compare different strategies aimed to prepare an ensemble with a given density matrix ρ. Preparing the ensemble of eigenstates of ρ with appropriate probabilities can be treated as 'generous' strategy: it provides maximal accessible information about the state. Another extremity is the so-called 'Scrooge' ensemble, which is mostly stingy in sharing the information. We introduce 'lazy' ensembles which require minimal effort to prepare the density matrix by selecting pure states with respect to completely random choice. We consider two parties, Alice and Bob, playing a kind of game. Bob wishes to guess which pure state is prepared by Alice. His null hypothesis, based on the lack of any information about Alice's intention, is that Alice prepares any pure state with equal probability. Then, the average quantum state measured by Bob turns out to be ρ, and he has to make a new hypothesis about Alice's intention solely based on the information that the observed density matrix is ρ. The arising 'lazy' ensemble is shown to be the alternative hypothesis which minimizes type I error

  12. The semantic similarity ensemble

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Ballatore

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Computational measures of semantic similarity between geographic terms provide valuable support across geographic information retrieval, data mining, and information integration. To date, a wide variety of approaches to geo-semantic similarity have been devised. A judgment of similarity is not intrinsically right or wrong, but obtains a certain degree of cognitive plausibility, depending on how closely it mimics human behavior. Thus selecting the most appropriate measure for a specific task is a significant challenge. To address this issue, we make an analogy between computational similarity measures and soliciting domain expert opinions, which incorporate a subjective set of beliefs, perceptions, hypotheses, and epistemic biases. Following this analogy, we define the semantic similarity ensemble (SSE as a composition of different similarity measures, acting as a panel of experts having to reach a decision on the semantic similarity of a set of geographic terms. The approach is evaluated in comparison to human judgments, and results indicate that an SSE performs better than the average of its parts. Although the best member tends to outperform the ensemble, all ensembles outperform the average performance of each ensemble's member. Hence, in contexts where the best measure is unknown, the ensemble provides a more cognitively plausible approach.

  13. Numerical simulation of idealized front motion in neutral and stratified atmosphere with a hyperbolic system of equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yudin, M. S.

    2017-11-01

    In the present paper, stratification effects on surface pressure in the propagation of an atmospheric gravity current (cold front) over flat terrain are estimated with a non-hydrostatic finite-difference model of atmospheric dynamics. Artificial compressibility is introduced into the model in order to make its equations hyperbolic. For comparison with available simulation data, the physical processes under study are assumed to be adiabatic. The influence of orography is also eliminated. The front surface is explicitly described by a special equation. A time filter is used to suppress the non-physical oscillations. The results of simulations of surface pressure under neutral and stable stratification are presented. Under stable stratification the front moves faster and shows an abrupt pressure jump at the point of observation. This fact is in accordance with observations and the present-day theory of atmospheric fronts.

  14. Simulation of wind-induced snow transport and sublimation in alpine terrain using a fully coupled snowpack/atmosphere model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vionnet, V.; Martin, E.; Masson, V.; Guyomarc'h, G.; Naaim-Bouvet, F.; Prokop, A.; Durand, Y.; Lac, C.

    2014-03-01

    In alpine regions, wind-induced snow transport strongly influences the spatio-temporal evolution of the snow cover throughout the winter season. To gain understanding on the complex processes that drive the redistribution of snow, a new numerical model is developed. It directly couples the detailed snowpack model Crocus with the atmospheric model Meso-NH. Meso-NH/Crocus simulates snow transport in saltation and in turbulent suspension and includes the sublimation of suspended snow particles. The coupled model is evaluated against data collected around the experimental site of Col du Lac Blanc (2720 m a.s.l., French Alps). First, 1-D simulations show that a detailed representation of the first metres of the atmosphere is required to reproduce strong gradients of blowing snow concentration and compute mass exchange between the snowpack and the atmosphere. Secondly, 3-D simulations of a blowing snow event without concurrent snowfall have been carried out. Results show that the model captures the main structures of atmospheric flow in alpine terrain. However, at 50 m grid spacing, the model reproduces only the patterns of snow erosion and deposition at the ridge scale and misses smaller scale patterns observed by terrestrial laser scanning. When activated, the sublimation of suspended snow particles causes a reduction of deposited snow mass of 5.3% over the calculation domain. Total sublimation (surface + blowing snow) is three times higher than surface sublimation in a simulation neglecting blowing snow sublimation.

  15. Effect of hydrogen chloride on the corrosion of an FeCrAlY alloy in simulated coal gasifier atmospheres

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coley, K.S.; Rhoades-Brown, J.E.; Blick, K.

    1989-03-01

    An iron chromium aluminium yttrium steel was exposed to a simulated coal gasifier atmosphere containing 1000 ppm and 2200 ppm hydrogen chloride at 450/sup 0/C. Increasing hydrogen chloride content was found to accelerate reaction rates, and significantly alter the microstructure and composition of the corrosion product. Tentative explanations for these results, involving vapour phase transport of metal chlorides are proposed.

  16. Validation of techniques for simulating long range dispersal and deposition of atmospheric pollutants based upon measurements after the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tveten, U.

    1987-02-01

    Problem specifications and a time schedule for an international study of computerized simulation of transfrontier atmospheric contamination are presented. Started on the initiative of the Nordic Liaison Committee for Atomic Energy, the study will be based on international measurements after the Chernobyl accident

  17. TransCom model simulations of hourly atmospheric CO2: Experimental overview and diurnal cycle results for 2002

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Law, R. M.; Peters, W.; Roedenbeck, C.; Aulagnier, C.; Baker, I.; Bergmann, D. J.; Bousquet, P.; Brandt, J.; Bruhwiler, L.; Cameron-Smith, P. J.; Christensen, J. H.; Delage, F.; Denning, A. S.; Fan, S.; Geels, C.; Houweling, S.; Imasu, R.; Karstens, U.; Kawa, S. R.; Kleist, J.; Krol, M. C.; Lin, S. -J.; Lokupitiya, R.; Maki, T.; Maksyutov, S.; Niwa, Y.; Onishi, R.; Parazoo, N.; Patra, P. K.; Pieterse, G.; Rivier, L.; Satoh, M.; Serrar, S.; Taguchi, S.; Takigawa, M.; Vautard, R.; Vermeulen, A. T.; Zhu, Z.

    2008-01-01

    [1] A forward atmospheric transport modeling experiment has been coordinated by the TransCom group to investigate synoptic and diurnal variations in CO2. Model simulations were run for biospheric, fossil, and air-sea exchange of CO2 and for SF6 and radon for 2000-2003. Twenty-five models or model

  18. TransCom model simulations of hourly atmospheric CO2: Experimental overview and diurnal cycle results for 2002

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Law, R. M.; Peters, W.; RöDenbeck, C.; Aulagnier, C.; Baker, I.; Bergmann, D. J.; Bousquet, P.; Brandt, J.; Bruhwiler, L.; Cameron-Smith, P. J.; Christensen, J. H.; Delage, F.; Denning, A. S.; Fan, S.; Geels, C.; Houweling, S.; Imasu, R.; Karstens, U.; Kawa, S. R.; Kleist, J.; Krol, M. C.; Lin, S.-J.; Lokupitiya, R.; Maki, T.; Maksyutov, S.; Niwa, Y.; Onishi, R.; Parazoo, N.; Patra, P. K.; Pieterse, G.; Rivier, L.; Satoh, M.; Serrar, S.; Taguchi, S.; Takigawa, M.; Vautard, R.; Vermeulen, A. T.; Zhu, Z.

    2008-01-01

    A forward atmospheric transport modeling experiment has been coordinated by the TransCom group to investigate synoptic and diurnal variations in CO2. Model simulations were run for biospheric, fossil, and air-sea exchange of CO2 and for SF6 and radon for 2000-2003. Twenty-five models or model

  19. Estimating Convection Parameters in the GFDL CM2.1 Model Using Ensemble Data Assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shan; Zhang, Shaoqing; Liu, Zhengyu; Lu, Lv; Zhu, Jiang; Zhang, Xuefeng; Wu, Xinrong; Zhao, Ming; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Zhang, Rong-Hua; Lin, Xiaopei

    2018-04-01

    Parametric uncertainty in convection parameterization is one major source of model errors that cause model climate drift. Convection parameter tuning has been widely studied in atmospheric models to help mitigate the problem. However, in a fully coupled general circulation model (CGCM), convection parameters which impact the ocean as well as the climate simulation may have different optimal values. This study explores the possibility of estimating convection parameters with an ensemble coupled data assimilation method in a CGCM. Impacts of the convection parameter estimation on climate analysis and forecast are analyzed. In a twin experiment framework, five convection parameters in the GFDL coupled model CM2.1 are estimated individually and simultaneously under both perfect and imperfect model regimes. Results show that the ensemble data assimilation method can help reduce the bias in convection parameters. With estimated convection parameters, the analyses and forecasts for both the atmosphere and the ocean are generally improved. It is also found that information in low latitudes is relatively more important for estimating convection parameters. This study further suggests that when important parameters in appropriate physical parameterizations are identified, incorporating their estimation into traditional ensemble data assimilation procedure could improve the final analysis and climate prediction.

  20. Ensemble forecasts of road surface temperatures

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sokol, Zbyněk; Bližňák, Vojtěch; Sedlák, Pavel; Zacharov, Petr, jr.; Pešice, Petr; Škuthan, M.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 187, 1 May (2017), s. 33-41 ISSN 0169-8095 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-34856S; GA TA ČR(CZ) TA01031509 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : ensemble prediction * road surface temperature * road weather forecast Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OBOR OECD: Meteorology and atmospheric sciences Impact factor: 3.778, year: 2016 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809516307311

  1. [Smog chamber simulation of ozone formation from atmospheric photooxidation of propane].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Li-hua; Mo, Chuang-rong; Xu, Yong-fu; Jia, Long

    2012-08-01

    Atmospheric photochemical reactions of propane and NO, were simulated with a self-made smog chamber. The effects of relative humidity (RH) and [C3H8]0/[NOx]0 ratio on ozone formation were studied. The results showed that both the maximum ozone concentration and the maximum value of incremental reactivity (IRmax) of propane decreased linearly with increasing RH. Under lower RH conditions, the occurrence time of peak ozone concentration was about 22 h after the beginning of reaction, and IRmax varied from 0.0231 to 0.0391, while under higher RH conditions the occurrence time of peak ozone concentration was 16 h, and IRmax ranged from 0.0172 to 0.0320. During the 20 h of reaction, within the first 12 h RH did not significantly affect the yield of acetone, whereas after 12 h the lower RH condition could lead to relatively greater amount of acetone. During the first 4-20 h of experiments, acetone concentrations ranged from 153 x 10(-9) to 364 x 10(-9) at 17% RH and from 167 x 10(-9) to 302 x 10(-9) at 62% RH, respectively. Maximum ozone concentrations decreased with increasing [C3H8]0/[NOx]0 ratio and a better negative linear relationship between them was obtained under the lower RH conditions. The smog chamber data and the results from simulation of the C3H8-NOx reactions using the sub-mechanism of MCM were compared, and a significant deviation was found between these two results.

  2. Longitudinal Biases in the Seychelles Dome Simulated by 34 Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled General Circulation Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagura, M.; Sasaki, W.; Tozuka, T.; Luo, J.; Behera, S. K.; Yamagata, T.

    2012-12-01

    The upwelling dome of the southern tropical Indian Ocean is examined by using simulated results from 34 ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) including those from the phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Among the current set of the 34 CGCMs, 12 models erroneously produce the upwelling dome in the eastern half of the basin while the observed Seychelles Dome is located in the southwestern tropical Indian Ocean (Figure 1). The annual mean Ekman pumping velocity is almost zero in the southern off-equatorial region in these models. This is in contrast with the observations that show Ekman upwelling as the cause of the Seychelles Dome. In the models that produce the dome in the eastern basin, the easterly biases are prominent along the equator in boreal summer and fall that cause shallow thermocline biases along the Java and Sumatra coasts via Kelvin wave dynamics and result in a spurious upwelling dome there. In addition, these models tend to overestimate (underestimate) the magnitude of annual (semiannual) cycle of thermocline depth variability in the dome region, which is another consequence of the easterly wind biases in boreal summer-fall. Compared to the CMIP3 models (Yokoi et al. 2009), the CMIP5 models are even worse in simulating the dome longitudes and magnitudes of annual and semiannual cycles of thermocline depth variability in the dome region. Considering the increasing need to understand regional impacts of climate modes, these results may give serious caveats to interpretation of model results and help in further model developments.; Figure 1: The longitudes of the shallowest annual-mean D20 in 5°S-12°S. The open and filled circles are for the observations and the CGCMs, respectively.

  3. Simulation of Electrical Discharge Initiated by a Nanometer-Sized Probe in Atmospheric Conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Ran; Chen Chilai; Liu Youjiang; Wang Huanqin; Kong Deyi; Ma Yuan; Cada Michael; Brugger Jürgen

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, a two-dimensional nanometer scale tip-plate discharge model has been employed to study nanoscale electrical discharge in atmospheric conditions. The field strength distributions in a nanometer scale tip-to-plate electrode arrangement were calculated using the finite element analysis (FEA) method, and the influences of applied voltage amplitude and frequency as well as gas gap distance on the variation of effective discharge range (EDR) on the plate were also investigated and discussed. The simulation results show that the probe with a wide tip will cause a larger effective discharge range on the plate; the field strength in the gap is notably higher than that induced by the sharp tip probe; the effective discharge range will increase linearly with the rise of excitation voltage, and decrease nonlinearly with the rise of gap length. In addition, probe dimension, especially the width/height ratio, affects the effective discharge range in different manners. With the width/height ratio rising from 1:1 to 1:10, the effective discharge range will maintain stable when the excitation voltage is around 50 V. This will increase when the excitation voltage gets higher and decrease as the excitation voltage gets lower. Furthermore, when the gap length is 5 nm and the excitation voltage is below 20 V, the diameter of EDR in our simulation is about 150 nm, which is consistent with the experiment results reported by other research groups. Our work provides a preliminary understanding of nanometer scale discharges and establishes a predictive structure-behavior relationship

  4. Preservation of Biomarkers from Cyanobacteria Mixed with Mars­Like Regolith Under Simulated Martian Atmosphere and UV Flux

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baqué, Mickael; Verseux, Cyprien; Böttger, Ute; Rabbow, Elke; de Vera, Jean-Pierre Paul; Billi, Daniela

    2016-06-01

    The space mission EXPOSE-R2 launched on the 24th of July 2014 to the International Space Station is carrying the BIOMEX (BIOlogy and Mars EXperiment) experiment aimed at investigating the endurance of extremophiles and stability of biomolecules under space and Mars-like conditions. In order to prepare the analyses of the returned samples, ground-based simulations were carried out in Planetary and Space Simulation facilities. During the ground-based simulations, Chroococcidiopsis cells mixed with two Martian mineral analogues (phyllosilicatic and sulfatic Mars regolith simulants) were exposed to a Martian simulated atmosphere combined or not with UV irradiation corresponding to the dose received during a 1-year-exposure in low Earth orbit (or half a Martian year on Mars). Cell survival and preservation of potential biomarkers such as photosynthetic and photoprotective pigments or DNA were assessed by colony forming ability assays, confocal laser scanning microscopy, Raman spectroscopy and PCR-based assays. DNA and photoprotective pigments (carotenoids) were detectable after simulations of the space mission (570 MJ/m2 of UV 200-400 nm irradiation and Martian simulated atmosphere), even though signals were attenuated by the treatment. The fluorescence signal from photosynthetic pigments was differently preserved after UV irradiation, depending on the thickness of the samples. UV irradiation caused a high background fluorescence of the Martian mineral analogues, as revealed by Raman spectroscopy. Further investigation will be needed to ensure unambiguous identification and operations of future Mars missions. However, a 3-month exposure to a Martian simulated atmosphere showed no significant damaging effect on the tested cyanobacterial biosignatures, pointing out the relevance of the latter for future investigations after the EXPOSE-R2 mission. Data gathered during the ground-based simulations will contribute to interpret results from space experiments and guide our

  5. Visualization of uncertainty and ensemble data: Exploration of climate modeling and weather forecast data with integrated ViSUS-CDAT systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Potter, Kristin; Pascucci, Valerio; Johhson, Chris; Wilson, Andrew; Bremer, Peer-Timo; Williams, Dean; Doutriaux, Charles

    2009-01-01

    Climate scientists and meteorologists are working towards a better understanding of atmospheric conditions and global climate change. To explore the relationships present in numerical predictions of the atmosphere, ensemble datasets are produced that combine time- and spatially-varying simulations generated using multiple numeric models, sampled input conditions, and perturbed parameters. These data sets mitigate as well as describe the uncertainty present in the data by providing insight into the effects of parameter perturbation, sensitivity to initial conditions, and inconsistencies in model outcomes. As such, massive amounts of data are produced, creating challenges both in data analysis and in visualization. This work presents an approach to understanding ensembles by using a collection of statistical descriptors to summarize the data, and displaying these descriptors using variety of visualization techniques which are familiar to domain experts. The resulting techniques are integrated into the ViSUS/Climate Data and Analysis Tools (CDAT) system designed to provide a directly accessible, complex visualization framework to atmospheric researchers.

  6. The consumption of atmospheric methane by soil in a simulated future climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. L. Curry

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available A recently developed model for the consumption of atmospheric methane by soil (Curry, 2007 is used to investigate the global magnitude and distribution of methane uptake in a simulated future climate. In addition to solving the one-dimensional diffusion-reaction equation, the model includes a parameterization of biological CH4 oxidation that is sensitive to soil temperature and moisture content, along with specified reduction factors for land cultivation and wetland fractional coverage. Under the SRES emission scenario A1B, the model projects an 8% increase in the global annual mean CH4 soil sink by 2100, over and above the 15% increase expected from increased CH4 concentration alone. While the largest absolute increases occur in cool temperate and subtropical forest ecosystems, the largest relative increases in consumption (>40% are seen in the boreal forest, tundra and polar desert environments of the high northern latitudes. Methane uptake at mid- to high northern latitudes increases year-round in 2100, with a 68% increase over present-day values in June. This increase is primarily due to enhanced soil diffusivity resulting from lower soil moisture produced by increased evaporation and reduced snow cover. At lower latitudes, uptake is enhanced mainly by elevated soil temperatures and/or reduced soil moisture stress, with the dominant influence determined by the local climate.

  7. Effects of Simulated Smog Atmospheres in Rodent Models of Metabolic and Immunologic Dysfunction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGee Hargrove, Marie; Snow, Samantha J; Luebke, Robert W; Wood, Charles E; Krug, Jonathan D; Krantz, Q Todd; King, Charly; Copeland, Carey B; McCullough, Shaun D; Gowdy, Kymberly M; Kodavanti, Urmila P; Gilmour, M Ian; Gavett, Stephen H

    2018-03-06

    Air pollution is a diverse and dynamic mixture of gaseous and particulate matter, limiting our understanding of associated adverse health outcomes. The biological effects of two simulated smog atmospheres (SA) with different compositions but similar air quality health indexes were compared in a nonobese diabetic rat model (Goto-Kakizaki, GK) and three mouse immune models (house dust mite (HDM) allergy, antibody response to heat-killed pneumococcus, and resistance to influenza A infection). In GK rats, both SA-PM (high particulate matter) and SA-O 3 (high ozone) decreased cholesterol levels immediately after a 4-h exposure, whereas only SA-O 3 increased airflow limitation. Airway responsiveness to methacholine was increased in HDM-allergic mice compared with nonallergic mice, but exposure to SA-PM or SA-O 3 did not significantly alter responsiveness. Exposure to SA-PM did not affect the IgM response to pneumococcus, and SA-O 3 did not affect virus titers, although inflammatory cytokine levels were decreased in mice infected at the end of a 7-day exposure. Collectively, acute SA exposures produced limited health effects in animal models of metabolic and immune diseases. Effects of SA-O 3 tended to be greater than those of SA-PM, suggesting that gas-phase components in photochemically derived multipollutant mixtures may be of greater concern than secondary organic aerosol PM.

  8. Large eddy simulation of the atmospheric boundary layer above a forest canopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alam, Jahrul

    2017-11-01

    A goal of this talk is to discuss large eddy simulation (LES) of atmospheric turbulence within and above a canopy/roughness sublayer, where coherent turbulence resembles a turbulent mixing layer. The proposed LES does not resolve the near wall region. Instead, a near surface canopy stress model has been combined with a wall adapting local eddy viscosity model. The canopy stress is represented as a three-dimensional time dependent momentum sink, where the total kinematic drag of the canopy is adjusted based on the measurements in a forest canopy. This LES has been employed to analyze turbulence structures in the canopy/roughness sublayer. Results indicate that turbulence is more efficient at transporting momentum and scalars in the roughness sublayer. The LES result has been compared with the turbulence profile measured over a forest canopy to predict the turbulence statistics in the inertial sublayer above the canopy. Turbulence statistics between the inertial sublayer, the canopy sublayer, and the rough-wall boundary layer have been compared to characterize whether turbulence in the canopy sublayer resembles a turbulent mixing layer or a boundary layer. The canopy turbulence is found dominated by energetic eddies much larger in scale than the individual roughness elements. Financial support from the National Science and Research Council (NSERC), Canada is acknowledged.

  9. Atmospheric Pre-Corrected Differential Absorption Techniques to Retrieve Columnar Water Vapor: Theory and Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borel, Christoph C.; Schlaepfer, Daniel

    1996-01-01

    Two different approaches exist to retrieve columnar water vapor from imaging spectrometer data: (1) Differential absorption techniques based on: (a) Narrow-Wide (N/W) ratio between overlapping spectrally wide and narrow channels; (b) Continuum Interpolated Band Ratio (CIBR) between a measurement channel and the weighted sum of two reference channels. (2) Non-linear fitting techniques which are based on spectral radiative transfer calculations. The advantage of the first approach is computational speed and of the second, improved retrieval accuracy. Our goal was to improve the accuracy of the first technique using physics based on radiative transfer. Using a modified version of the Duntley equation, we derived an "Atmospheric Pre-corrected Differential Absorption" (APDA) technique and described an iterative scheme to retrieve water vapor on a pixel-by-pixel basis. Next we compared both, the CIBR and the APDA using the Duntley equation for MODTRAN3 computed irradiances, transmissions and path radiance (using the DISORT option). This simulation showed that the CIBR is very sensitive to reflectance effects and that the APDA performs much better. An extensive data set was created with the radiative transfer code 6S over 379 different ground reflectance spectra. The calculated relative water vapor error was reduced significantly for the APDA. The APDA technique had about 8% (vs. over 35% for the CIBR) of the 379 spectra with a relative water vapor error of greater than +5%. The APDA has been applied to 1991 and 1995 AVIRIS scenes which visually demonstrate the improvement over the CIBR technique.

  10. Lattice gauge theory in the microcanonical ensemble

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Callaway, D.J.E.; Rahman, A.

    1983-01-01

    The microcanonical-ensemble formulation of lattice gauge theory proposed recently is examined in detail. Expectation values in this new ensemble are determined by solving a large set of coupled ordinary differential equations, after the fashion of a molecular dynamics simulation. Following a brief review of the microcanonical ensemble, calculations are performed for the gauge groups U(1), SU(2), and SU(3). The results are compared and contrasted with standard methods of computation. Several advantages of the new formalism are noted. For example, no random numbers are required to update the system. Also, this update is performed in a simultaneous fashion. Thus the microcanonical method presumably adapts well to parallel processing techniques, especially when the p action is highly nonlocal (such as when fermions are included)

  11. Decadal climate predictions improved by ocean ensemble dispersion filtering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kadow, C.; Illing, S.; Kröner, I.; Ulbrich, U.; Cubasch, U.

    2017-06-01

    Decadal predictions by Earth system models aim to capture the state and phase of the climate several years in advance. Atmosphere-ocean interaction plays an important role for such climate forecasts. While short-term weather forecasts represent an initial value problem and long-term climate projections represent a boundary condition problem, the decadal climate prediction falls in-between these two time scales. In recent years, more precise initialization techniques of coupled Earth system models and increased ensemble sizes have improved decadal predictions. However, climate models in general start losing the initialized signal and its predictive skill from one forecast year to the next. Here we show that the climate prediction skill of an Earth system model can be improved by a shift of the ocean state toward the ensemble mean of its individual members at seasonal intervals. We found that this procedure, called ensemble dispersion filter, results in more accurate results than the standard decadal prediction. Global mean and regional temperature, precipitation, and winter cyclone predictions show an increased skill up to 5 years ahead. Furthermore, the novel technique outperforms predictions with larger ensembles and higher resolution. Our results demonstrate how decadal climate predictions benefit from ocean ensemble dispersion filtering toward the ensemble mean.Plain Language SummaryDecadal predictions aim to predict the climate several years in advance. Atmosphere-ocean interaction plays an important role for such climate forecasts. The ocean memory due to its heat capacity holds big potential skill. In recent years, more precise initialization techniques of coupled Earth system models (incl. atmosphere and ocean) have improved decadal predictions. Ensembles are another important aspect. Applying slightly perturbed predictions to trigger the famous butterfly effect results in an ensemble. Instead of evaluating one prediction, but the whole ensemble with its

  12. Ensemble prediction of air quality using the WRF/CMAQ model system for health effect studies in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Jianlin; Li, Xun; Huang, Lin; Ying, Qi; Zhang, Qiang; Zhao, Bin; Wang, Shuxiao; Zhang, Hongliang

    2017-11-01

    Accurate exposure estimates are required for health effect analyses of severe air pollution in China. Chemical transport models (CTMs) are widely used to provide spatial distribution, chemical composition, particle size fractions, and source origins of air pollutants. The accuracy of air quality predictions in China is greatly affected by the uncertainties of emission inventories. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model with meteorological inputs from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model were used in this study to simulate air pollutants in China in 2013. Four simulations were conducted with four different anthropogenic emission inventories, including the Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC), the Emission Inventory for China by School of Environment at Tsinghua University (SOE), the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR), and the Regional Emission inventory in Asia version 2 (REAS2). Model performance of each simulation was evaluated against available observation data from 422 sites in 60 cities across China. Model predictions of O3 and PM2.5 generally meet the model performance criteria, but performance differences exist in different regions, for different pollutants, and among inventories. Ensemble predictions were calculated by linearly combining the results from different inventories to minimize the sum of the squared errors between the ensemble results and the observations in all cities. The ensemble concentrations show improved agreement with observations in most cities. The mean fractional bias (MFB) and mean fractional errors (MFEs) of the ensemble annual PM2.5 in the 60 cities are -0.11 and 0.24, respectively, which are better than the MFB (-0.25 to -0.16) and MFE (0.26-0.31) of individual simulations. The ensemble annual daily maximum 1 h O3 (O3-1h) concentrations are also improved, with mean normalized bias (MNB) of 0.03 and mean normalized errors (MNE) of 0.14, compared to MNB of 0.06-0.19 and

  13. Ensemble prediction of air quality using the WRF/CMAQ model system for health effect studies in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Hu

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Accurate exposure estimates are required for health effect analyses of severe air pollution in China. Chemical transport models (CTMs are widely used to provide spatial distribution, chemical composition, particle size fractions, and source origins of air pollutants. The accuracy of air quality predictions in China is greatly affected by the uncertainties of emission inventories. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ model with meteorological inputs from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model were used in this study to simulate air pollutants in China in 2013. Four simulations were conducted with four different anthropogenic emission inventories, including the Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC, the Emission Inventory for China by School of Environment at Tsinghua University (SOE, the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR, and the Regional Emission inventory in Asia version 2 (REAS2. Model performance of each simulation was evaluated against available observation data from 422 sites in 60 cities across China. Model predictions of O3 and PM2.5 generally meet the model performance criteria, but performance differences exist in different regions, for different pollutants, and among inventories. Ensemble predictions were calculated by linearly combining the results from different inventories to minimize the sum of the squared errors between the ensemble results and the observations in all cities. The ensemble concentrations show improved agreement with observations in most cities. The mean fractional bias (MFB and mean fractional errors (MFEs of the ensemble annual PM2.5 in the 60 cities are −0.11 and 0.24, respectively, which are better than the MFB (−0.25 to −0.16 and MFE (0.26–0.31 of individual simulations. The ensemble annual daily maximum 1 h O3 (O3-1h concentrations are also improved, with mean normalized bias (MNB of 0.03 and mean normalized errors (MNE of 0.14, compared to MNB

  14. Atmospheric Corrosion Behavior and Mechanism of a Ni-Advanced Weathering Steel in Simulated Tropical Marine Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Wei; Zeng, Zhongping; Cheng, Xuequn; Li, Xiaogang; Liu, Bo

    2017-12-01

    Corrosion behavior of Ni-advanced weathering steel, as well as carbon steel and conventional weathering steel, in a simulated tropical marine atmosphere was studied by field exposure and indoor simulation tests. Meanwhile, morphology and composition of corrosion products formed on the exposed steels were surveyed through scanning electron microscopy, energy-dispersive x-ray spectroscopy and x-ray diffraction. Results indicated that the additive Ni in weathering steel played an important role during the corrosion process, which took part in the formation of corrosion products, enriched in the inner rust layer and promoted the transformation from loose γ-FeOOH to dense α-FeOOH. As a result, the main aggressive ion, i.e., Cl-, was effectively separated in the outer rust layer which leads to the lowest corrosion rate among these tested steels. Thus, the resistance of Ni-advanced weathering steel to atmospheric corrosion was significantly improved in a simulated tropical marine environment.

  15. Time-Dependent Simulations of the Formation and Evolution of Disk-Accreted Atmospheres Around Terrestrial Planets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoekl, Alexander; Dorfi, Ernst

    2014-05-01

    In the early, embedded phase of evolution of terrestrial planets, the planetary core accumulates gas from the circumstellar disk into a planetary envelope. This atmosphere is very significant for the further thermal evolution of the planet by forming an insulation around the rocky core. The disk-captured envelope is also the staring point for the atmospheric evolution where the atmosphere is modified by outgassing from the planetary core and atmospheric mass loss once the planet is exposed to the radiation field of the host star. The final amount of persistent atmosphere around the evolved planet very much characterizes the planet and is a key criterion for habitability. The established way to study disk accumulated atmospheres are hydrostatic models, even though in many cases the assumption of stationarity is unlikely to be fulfilled. We present, for the first time, time-dependent radiation hydrodynamics simulations of the accumulation process and the interaction between the disk-nebula gas and the planetary core. The calculations were performed with the TAPIR-Code (short for The adaptive, implicit RHD-Code) in spherical symmetry solving the equations of hydrodynamics, gray radiative transport, and convective energy transport. The models range from the surface of the solid core up to the Hill radius where the planetary envelope merges into the surrounding protoplanetary disk. Our results show that the time-scale of gas capturing and atmospheric growth strongly depends on the mass of the solid core. The amount of atmosphere accumulated during the lifetime of the protoplanetary disk (typically a few Myr) varies accordingly with the mass of the planet. Thus, a core with Mars-mass will end up with about 10 bar of atmosphere while for an Earth-mass core, the surface pressure reaches several 1000 bar. Even larger planets with several Earth masses quickly capture massive envelopes which in turn become gravitationally unstable leading to runaway accretion and the eventual

  16. Uncertainties in United States agricultural N2O emissions: comparing forward model simulations to atmospheric N2O data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nevison, C. D.; Saikawa, E.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Andrews, A. E.; Sweeney, C.

    2014-12-01

    Atmospheric N2O concentrations have increased from 275 ppb in the preindustrial to about 325 ppb in recent years, a ~20% increase with important implications for both anthropogenic greenhouse forcing and stratospheric ozone recovery. This increase has been driven largely by synthetic fertilizer production and other perturbations to the global nitrogen cycle associated with human agriculture. Several recent regional atmospheric inversion studies have quantified North American agricultural N2O emissions using top-down constraints based on atmospheric N2O data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network, including surface, aircraft and tall tower platforms. These studies have concluded that global N2O inventories such as EDGAR may be underestimating the true U.S. anthropogenic N2O source by a factor of 3 or more. However, simple back-of-the-envelope calculations show that emissions of this magnitude are difficult to reconcile with the basic constraints of the global N2O budget. Here, we explore some possible reasons why regional atmospheric inversions might overestimate the U.S. agricultural N2O source. First, the seasonality of N2O agricultural sources is not well known, but can have an important influence on inversion results, particularly when the inversions are based on data that are concentrated in the spring/summer growing season. Second, boundary conditions can strongly influence regional inversions but the boundary conditions used may not adequately account for remote influences on surface data such as the seasonal stratospheric influx of N2O-depleted air. We will present a set of forward model simulations, using the Community Land Model (CLM) and two atmospheric chemistry tracer transport models, MOZART and the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), that examine the influence of terrestrial emissions and atmospheric chemistry and dynamics on atmospheric variability in N2O at U.S. and

  17. The global impact of the transport sectors on atmospheric aerosol: simulations for year 2000 emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Righi

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available We use the EMAC (ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry global model with the aerosol module MADE (Modal Aerosol Dynamics model for Europe, adapted for global applications to quantify the impact of transport emissions (land transport, shipping and aviation on the global aerosol. We consider a present-day (2000 scenario according to the CMIP5 (Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 emission data set developed in support of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. The model takes into account particle mass and number emissions: The latter are derived from mass emissions under different assumptions on the size distribution of particles emitted by the three transport sectors. Additional sensitivity experiments are performed to quantify the effects of the uncertainties behind such assumptions. The model simulations show that the impact of the transport sectors closely matches the emission patterns. Land transport is the most important source of black carbon (BC pollution in the USA, Europe and the Arabian Peninsula, contributing up to 60–70% of the total surface-level BC concentration in these regions. Shipping contributes about 40–60% of the total aerosol sulfate surface-level concentration along the most-traveled routes of the northern Atlantic and northern Pacific oceans, with a significant impact (~ 10–20% along the coastlines. Aviation mostly affects aerosol number, contributing about 30–40% of the particle number concentration in the northern midlatitudes' upper troposphere (7–12 km, although significant effects are also simulated at the ground, due to the emissions from landing and take-off cycles. The transport-induced perturbations to the particle number concentrations are very sensitive to the assumptions on the size distribution of emitted particles, with the largest uncertainties (about one order of magnitude obtained for the land transport sector. The simulated climate impacts, due to

  18. The atmospheric boundary layer in the CSIRO global climate model: simulations versus observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garratt, J. R.; Rotstayn, L. D.; Krummel, P. B.

    2002-07-01

    A 5-year simulation of the atmospheric boundary layer in the CSIRO global climate model (GCM) is compared with detailed boundary-layer observations at six locations, two over the ocean and four over land. Field observations, in the form of surface fluxes and vertical profiles of wind, temperature and humidity, are generally available for each hour over periods of one month or more in a single year. GCM simulations are for specific months corresponding to the field observations, for each of five years. At three of the four land sites (two in Australia, one in south-eastern France), modelled rainfall was close to the observed climatological values, but was significantly in deficit at the fourth (Kansas, USA). Observed rainfall during the field expeditions was close to climatology at all four sites. At the Kansas site, modelled screen temperatures (Tsc), diurnal temperature amplitude and sensible heat flux (H) were significantly higher than observed, with modelled evaporation (E) much lower. At the other three land sites, there is excellent correspondence between the diurnal amplitude and phase and absolute values of each variable (Tsc, H, E). Mean monthly vertical profiles for specific times of the day show strong similarities: over land and ocean in vertical shape and absolute values of variables, and in the mixed-layer and nocturnal-inversion depths (over land) and the height of the elevated inversion or height of the cloud layer (over the sea). Of special interest is the presence climatologically of early morning humidity inversions related to dewfall and of nocturnal low-level jets; such features are found in the GCM simulations. The observed day-to-day variability in vertical structure is captured well in the model for most sites, including, over a whole month, the temperature range at all levels in the boundary layer, and the mix of shallow and deep mixed layers. Weaknesses or unrealistic structure include the following, (a) unrealistic model mixed

  19. Emulation of simulations of atmospheric dispersion at Fukushima for Sobol' sensitivity analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girard, Sylvain; Korsakissok, Irène; Mallet, Vivien

    2015-04-01

    Polyphemus/Polair3D, from which derives IRSN's operational model ldX, was used to simulate the atmospheric dispersion at the Japan scale of radionuclides after the Fukushima disaster. A previous study with the screening method of Morris had shown that - The sensitivities depend a lot on the considered output; - Only a few of the inputs are non-influential on all considered outputs; - Most influential inputs have either non-linear effects or are interacting. These preliminary results called for a more detailed sensitivity analysis, especially regarding the characterization of interactions. The method of Sobol' allows for a precise evaluation of interactions but requires large simulation samples. Gaussian process emulators for each considered outputs were built in order to relieve this computational burden. Globally aggregated outputs proved to be easy to emulate with high accuracy, and associated Sobol' indices are in broad agreement with previous results obtained with the Morris method. More localized outputs, such as temporal averages of gamma dose rates at measurement stations, resulted in lesser emulator performances: tests simulations could not satisfactorily be reproduced by some emulators. These outputs are of special interest because they can be compared to available observations, for instance for calibration purpose. A thorough inspection of prediction residuals hinted that the model response to wind perturbations often behaved in very distinct regimes relatively to some thresholds. Complementing the initial sample with wind perturbations set to the extreme values allowed for sensible improvement of some of the emulators while other remained too unreliable to be used in a sensitivity analysis. Adaptive sampling or regime-wise emulation could be tried to circumvent this issue. Sobol' indices for local outputs revealed interesting patterns, mostly dominated by the winds, with very high interactions. The emulators will be useful for subsequent studies. Indeed

  20. The development of simulation and atmospheric shower reconstruction tools for the study of future Cherenkov Imaging telescopes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sajjad, S.

    2007-09-01

    The future of ground based gamma-ray astronomy lies in large arrays of Imaging Atmospheric Cherenkov Telescopes with better capabilities: lower energy threshold, higher sensitivity, better resolution and background rejection. The design of IACT systems and the optimisation of their parameters requires an understanding of the atmospheric showers as well as dedicated tools for the simulation of telescope systems and the evaluation of their performance. The first part of this dissertation deals with atmospheric showers, the various properties of the Cherenkov light they emit and their simulation. The second part presents the tools we have developed for the simulation of imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes and the characteristics of the shower images obtained by them. The third part of this thesis contains a presentation of the tools developed for the reconstruction of the source position in the sky, core position on the ground and energy of the gamma-rays as well as ideas for gamma-hadron separation. In the end, we use these tools to study two large arrays of telescopes at two altitudes and evaluate their performance for gamma-ray detection. (author)

  1. Simulating low frequency changes in atmospheric CO2 during the last 740 000 years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Köhler

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric CO2 measured in Antarctic ice cores shows a natural variability of 80 to 100 ppmv during the last four glacial cycles and variations of approximately 60 ppmv in the two cycles between 410 and 650 kyr BP. We here use various paleo-climatic records from the EPICA Dome C Antarctic ice core and from oceanic sediment cores covering the last 740 kyr to force the ocean/atmosphere/biosphere box model of the global carbon cycle BICYCLE in a forward mode over this time in order to interpret the natural variability of CO2. Our approach is based on the previous interpretation of carbon cycle variations during Termination I (Köhler et al., 2005a. In the absense of a process-based sediment module one main simplification of BICYCLE is that carbonate compensation is approximated by the temporally delayed restoration of deep ocean [CO32−]. Our results match the low frequency changes in CO2 measured in the Vostok and the EPICA Dome C ice core for the last 650 kyr BP (r2≈0.75. During these transient simulations the carbon cycle reaches never a steady state due to the ongoing variability of the overall carbon budget caused by the time delayed response of the carbonate compensation to other processes. The average contributions of different processes to the rise in CO2 during Terminations I to V and during earlier terminations are: the rise in Southern Ocean vertical mixing: 36/22 ppmv, the rise in ocean temperature: 26/11 ppmv, iron limitation of the marine biota in the Southern Ocean: 20/14 ppmv, carbonate compensation: 15/7 ppmv, the rise in North Atlantic deep water formation: 13/0 ppmv, the rise in gas exchange due to a decreasing sea ice cover: −8/−7 ppmv, sea level rise: −12/−4 ppmv, and rising terrestrial carbon storage: −13/−6 ppmv. According to our model the smaller interglacial CO2 values in the pre-Vostok period prior to Termination V are mainly caused by smaller interglacial Southern Ocean SST and an Atlantic THC which stayed

  2. Emergence of granular-sized magnetic bubbles through the solar atmosphere. I. Spectropolarimetric observations and simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ortiz, Ada; Hansteen, Viggo H.; Van der Voort, Luc Rouppe [Institute of Theoretical Astrophysics, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1029 Blindern, N-0315 Oslo (Norway); Bellot Rubio, Luis R. [Instituto de Astrofísica de Andalucía (CSIC), Apdo. 3040, E-18080 Granada (Spain); De la Cruz Rodríguez, Jaime, E-mail: ada@astro.uio.no [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Uppsala University, Box 516, SE-75120 Uppsala (Sweden)

    2014-02-01

    We study a granular-sized magnetic flux emergence event that occurred in NOAA 11024 in 2009 July. The observations were made with the CRISP spectropolarimeter at the Swedish 1 m Solar Telescope achieving a spatial resolution of 0.''14. Simultaneous full Stokes observations of the two photospheric Fe I lines at 630.2 nm and the chromospheric Ca II 854.2 nm line allow us to describe in detail the emergence process across the solar atmosphere. We report here on three-dimensional (3D) semi-spherical bubble events, where instead of simple magnetic footpoints, we observe complex semi-circular feet straddling a few granules. Several phenomena occur simultaneously, namely, abnormal granulation, separation of opposite-polarity legs, and brightenings at chromospheric heights. However, the most characteristic signature in these events is the observation of a dark bubble in filtergrams taken in the wings of the Ca II 854.2 nm line. There is a clear coincidence between the emergence of horizontal magnetic field patches and the formation of the dark bubble. We can infer how the bubble rises through the solar atmosphere as we see it progressing from the wings to the core of Ca II 854.2 nm. In the photosphere, the magnetic bubble shows mean upward Doppler velocities of 2 km s{sup –1} and expands at a horizontal speed of 4 km s{sup –1}. In about 3.5 minutes it travels some 1100 km to reach the mid chromosphere, implying an average ascent speed of 5.2 km s{sup –1}. The maximum separation attained by the magnetic legs is 6.''6. From an inversion of the observed Stokes spectra with the SIR code, we find maximum photospheric field strengths of 480 G and inclinations of nearly 90° in the magnetic bubble interior, along with temperature deficits of up to 250 K at log τ = –2 and above. To aid the interpretation of the observations, we carry out 3D numerical simulations of the evolution of a horizontal, untwisted magnetic flux sheet injected in the convection

  3. Simulation of atmospheric temperature inversions over greater cairo using the MM5 Meso-Scale atmospheric model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kandil, H.A.; Elhadidi, B.M.; Kader, A. A.; Moaty, A.A.; Sherif, A.O.

    2006-01-01

    Air pollution episodes have been recorded in Cairo, during the fall season, since 1999, as a result of specific meteorological conditions combined with large quantity of pollutants created by several ground-based sources. The main reason for the smog-like episodes (black clouds) is adverse weather conditions with low and variable winds, high humidity and strong temperature inversions in the few-hundred meters above the ground. The two important types of temperature inversion affecting the air pollution are surface or ground (radiation) inversion and subsidence (elevated) inversion. The surface temperature inversion is associated with a rapid decrease in the ground surface temperature with the simultaneous existence of warm air in the lower troposphere. The inversion develops at dusk and continues until the surface warms again the following day. Pollutants emitted during the night are caught under this i nversion lid. S ubsidence inversion forms when warm air masses move over colder air masses. The inversion develops with a stagnating high-pressure system (generally associated with fair weather). Under these conditions, the pressure gradient becomes progressively weaker so that winds become light. These light winds greatly reduce the horizontal transport and dispersion of pollutants. At the same time, the subsidence inversion acts as a barrier to the vertical dispersion of the pollutants. In this study, the Penn State/NCAR meso -scale model (MM5) is used to simulate the temperature inversion phenomenon over Greater Cairo region during the fall season of 2004. Accurate computations of the heat transfer at the surface are needed to capture this phenomenon. This can only be achieved by high-resolution simulations in both horizontal and vertical directions. Hence, for accurate simulation of the temperature inversion over Greater Cairo, four nested domains of resolutions of 27 km, 9 km, 3 km and 1 km, respectively, were used in the horizontal planes. Furthermore, 42

  4. Neural Network Ensembles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Lars Kai; Salamon, Peter

    1990-01-01

    We propose several means for improving the performance an training of neural networks for classification. We use crossvalidation as a tool for optimizing network parameters and architecture. We show further that the remaining generalization error can be reduced by invoking ensembles of similar...... networks....

  5. Assessing the Habitability of TRAPPIST-1e: MHD Simulations of Atmospheric Loss Due to CMEs and Stellar Wind

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harbach, Laura Marshall; Drake, Jeremy J.; Garraffo, Cecilia; Alvarado-Gomez, Julian D.; Moschou, Sofia P.; Cohen, Ofer

    2018-01-01

    Recently, three rocky planets were discovered in the habitable zone of the nearby planetary system TRAPPIST-1. The increasing number of exoplanet detections has led to further research into the planetary requirements for sustaining life. Habitable zone occupants have, in principle, the capacity to retain liquid water, whereas actual habitability might depend on atmospheric retention. However, stellar winds and photon radiation interactions with the planet can lead to severe atmospheric depletion and have a catastrophic impact on a planet’s habitability. While the implications of photoevaporation on atmospheric erosion have been researched to some degree, the influence of stellar winds and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) has yet to be analyzed in detail. Here, we model the effect of the stellar wind and CMEs on the atmospheric envelope of a planet situated in the orbit of TRAPPIST-1e using 3D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations. In particular, we discuss the atmospheric loss due to the effect of a CME, and the relevance of the stellar and planetary magnetic fields on the sustainability of M-dwarf exoplanetary atmospheres.

  6. Simulation of wind-induced snow transport in alpine terrain using a fully coupled snowpack/atmosphere model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vionnet, V.; Martin, E.; Masson, V.; Guyomarc'h, G.; Naaim-Bouvet, F.; Prokop, A.; Durand, Y.; Lac, C.

    2013-06-01

    In alpine regions, wind-induced snow transport strongly influences the spatio-temporal evolution of the snow cover throughout the winter season. To gain understanding on the complex processes that drive the redistribution of snow, a new numerical model is developed. It couples directly the detailed snowpack model Crocus with the atmospheric model Meso-NH. Meso-NH/Crocus simulates snow transport in saltation and in turbulent suspension and includes the sublimation of suspended snow particles. A detailed representation of the first meters of the atmosphere allows a fine reproduction of the erosion and deposition process. The coupled model is evaluated against data collected around the experimental site of Col du Lac Blanc (2720 m a.s.l., French Alps). For this purpose, a blowing snow event without concurrent snowfall has been selected and simulated. Results show that the model captures the main structures of atmospheric flow in alpine terrain, the vertical profile of wind speed and the snow particles fluxes near the surface. However, the horizontal resolution of 50 m is found to be insufficient to simulate the location of areas of snow erosion and deposition observed by terrestrial laser scanning. When activated, the sublimation of suspended snow particles causes a reduction in deposition of 5.3%. Total sublimation (surface + blowing snow) is three times higher than surface sublimation in a simulation neglecting blowing snow sublimation.

  7. Chemistry Simulations Using MERRA-2 Reanalysis with the GMI CTM and Replay in Support of the Atmospheric Composition Community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oman, Luke D.; Strahan, Susan E.

    2016-01-01

    Simulations using reanalyzed meteorological c