Measurability of quantum fields and the energy-time uncertainty relation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mensky, Mikhail B

2011-01-01

Quantum restrictions on the measurability of an electromagnetic field strength and their relevance to the energy-time uncertainty relation are considered. The minimum errors in measuring electromagnetic field strengths, as they were estimated by the author (1988) in the framework of the phenomenological method of restricted path integral (RPI), are compared with the analogous estimates found by Landau and Peierls (1931) and by Bohr and Rosenfeld (1933) with the help of certain measurement setups. RPI-based restrictions, including those of Landau and Peierls as a special case, hold for any measuring schemes meeting the strict definition of measurement. Their fundamental nature is confirmed by the fact that their associated field detectability condition has the form of the energy-time uncertainty relation. The weaker restrictions suggested by Bohr and Rosenfeld rely on an extended definition of measurement. The energy-time uncertainty relation, which is the condition for the electromagnetic field to be detectable, is applied to the analysis of how the near-field scanning microscope works. (methodological notes)

f(R in Holographic and Agegraphic Dark Energy Models and the Generalized Uncertainty Principle

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Barun Majumder

2013-01-01

Full Text Available We studied a unified approach with the holographic, new agegraphic, and f(R dark energy model to construct the form of f(R which in general is responsible for the curvature driven explanation of the very early inflation along with presently observed late time acceleration. We considered the generalized uncertainty principle in our approach which incorporated the corrections in the entropy-area relation and thereby modified the energy densities for the cosmological dark energy models considered. We found that holographic and new agegraphic f(R gravity models can behave like phantom or quintessence models in the spatially flat FRW universe. We also found a distinct term in the form of f(R which goes as R 3 / 2 due to the consideration of the GUP modified energy densities. Although the presence of this term in the action can be important in explaining the early inflationary scenario, Capozziello et al. recently showed that f(R ~ R 3 / 2 leads to an accelerated expansion, that is, a negative value for the deceleration parameter q which fits well with SNeIa and WMAP data.

On the uncertainty principle. V

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Halpern, O.

1976-01-01

The treatment of ideal experiments connected with the uncertainty principle is continued. The author analyzes successively measurements of momentum and position, and discusses the common reason why the results in all cases differ from the conventional ones. A similar difference exists for the measurement of field strengths. The interpretation given by Weizsaecker, who tried to interpret Bohr's complementarity principle by introducing a multi-valued logic is analyzed. The treatment of the uncertainty principle ΔE Δt is deferred to a later paper as is the interpretation of the method of variation of constants. Every ideal experiment discussed shows various lower limits for the value of the uncertainty product which limits depend on the experimental arrangement and are always (considerably) larger than h. (Auth.)

Generalized uncertainty principle as a consequence of the effective field theory

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Faizal, Mir, E-mail: mirfaizalmir@gmail.com [Irving K. Barber School of Arts and Sciences, University of British Columbia – Okanagan, Kelowna, British Columbia V1V 1V7 (Canada); Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Lethbridge, Lethbridge, Alberta T1K 3M4 (Canada); Ali, Ahmed Farag, E-mail: ahmed.ali@fsc.bu.edu.eg [Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Benha University, Benha, 13518 (Egypt); Netherlands Institute for Advanced Study, Korte Spinhuissteeg 3, 1012 CG Amsterdam (Netherlands); Nassar, Ali, E-mail: anassar@zewailcity.edu.eg [Department of Physics, Zewail City of Science and Technology, 12588, Giza (Egypt)

2017-02-10

We will demonstrate that the generalized uncertainty principle exists because of the derivative expansion in the effective field theories. This is because in the framework of the effective field theories, the minimum measurable length scale has to be integrated away to obtain the low energy effective action. We will analyze the deformation of a massive free scalar field theory by the generalized uncertainty principle, and demonstrate that the minimum measurable length scale corresponds to a second more massive scale in the theory, which has been integrated away. We will also analyze CFT operators dual to this deformed scalar field theory, and observe that scaling of the new CFT operators indicates that they are dual to this more massive scale in the theory. We will use holographic renormalization to explicitly calculate the renormalized boundary action with counter terms for this scalar field theory deformed by generalized uncertainty principle, and show that the generalized uncertainty principle contributes to the matter conformal anomaly.

Generalized uncertainty principle as a consequence of the effective field theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mir Faizal

2017-02-01

Full Text Available We will demonstrate that the generalized uncertainty principle exists because of the derivative expansion in the effective field theories. This is because in the framework of the effective field theories, the minimum measurable length scale has to be integrated away to obtain the low energy effective action. We will analyze the deformation of a massive free scalar field theory by the generalized uncertainty principle, and demonstrate that the minimum measurable length scale corresponds to a second more massive scale in the theory, which has been integrated away. We will also analyze CFT operators dual to this deformed scalar field theory, and observe that scaling of the new CFT operators indicates that they are dual to this more massive scale in the theory. We will use holographic renormalization to explicitly calculate the renormalized boundary action with counter terms for this scalar field theory deformed by generalized uncertainty principle, and show that the generalized uncertainty principle contributes to the matter conformal anomaly.

The Bertlmann-Martin Inequalities and the Uncertainty Principle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ighezou, F.Z.; Kerris, A.T.; Lombard, R.J.

2008-01-01

A lower bound to (r) 1s is established from the Thomas-Reiche-Kuhn sum rule applied to the reduced equation for the s-states. It is linked to the average value of (r 2 ) 1s We discuss, on few examples, how the use of approximate value for (r 2 ) 1s , derived from the generalized Bertlmann and Martin inequalities, preserves the lower bound character of (r) 1s . Finally, by using the uncertainty principle and the uncertainty in the radial position, we derive a low bound to the ground state kinetic energy

Quantum Action Principle with Generalized Uncertainty Principle

OpenAIRE

Gu, Jie

2013-01-01

One of the common features in all promising candidates of quantum gravity is the existence of a minimal length scale, which naturally emerges with a generalized uncertainty principle, or equivalently a modified commutation relation. Schwinger's quantum action principle was modified to incorporate this modification, and was applied to the calculation of the kernel of a free particle, partly recovering the result previously studied using path integral.

Limited entropic uncertainty as new principle of quantum physics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ion, D.B.; Ion, M.L.

2001-01-01

The Uncertainty Principle (UP) of quantum mechanics discovered by Heisenberg, which constitute the corner-stone of quantum physics, asserts that: there is an irreducible lower bound on the uncertainty in the result of a simultaneous measurement of non-commuting observables. In order to avoid this state-dependence many authors proposed to use the information entropy as a measure of the uncertainty instead of above standard quantitative formulation of the Heisenberg uncertainty principle. In this paper the Principle of Limited Entropic Uncertainty (LEU-Principle), as a new principle in quantum physics, is proved. Then, consistent experimental tests of the LEU-principle, obtained by using the available 49 sets of the pion-nucleus phase shifts, are presented for both, extensive (q=1) and nonextensive (q=0.5 and q=2.0) cases. Some results obtained by the application of LEU-Principle to the diffraction phenomena are also discussed. The main results and conclusions of our paper can be summarized as follows: (i) We introduced a new principle in quantum physics namely the Principle of Limited Entropic Uncertainty (LEU-Principle). This new principle includes in a more general and exact form not only the old Heisenberg uncertainty principle but also introduce an upper limit on the magnitude of the uncertainty in the quantum physics. The LEU-Principle asserts that: 'there is an irreducible lower bound as well as an upper bound on the uncertainty in the result of a simultaneous measurement of non-commuting observables for any extensive and nonextensive (q ≥ 0) quantum systems'; (ii) Two important concrete realizations of the LEU-Principle are explicitly obtained in this paper, namely: (a) the LEU-inequalities for the quantum scattering of spinless particles and (b) the LEU-inequalities for the diffraction on single slit of width 2a. In particular from our general results, in the limit y → +1 we recover in an exact form all the results previously reported. In our paper an

What is the uncertainty principle of non-relativistic quantum mechanics?

Science.gov (United States)

Riggs, Peter J.

2018-05-01

After more than ninety years of discussions over the uncertainty principle, there is still no universal agreement on what the principle states. The Robertson uncertainty relation (incorporating standard deviations) is given as the mathematical expression of the principle in most quantum mechanics textbooks. However, the uncertainty principle is not merely a statement of what any of the several uncertainty relations affirm. It is suggested that a better approach would be to present the uncertainty principle as a statement about the probability distributions of incompatible variables and the resulting restrictions on quantum states.

Human perception and the uncertainty principle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harney, R.C.

1976-01-01

The concept of the uncertainty principle that position and momentum cannot be simultaneously specified to arbitrary accuracy is somewhat difficult to reconcile with experience. This note describes order-of-magnitude calculations which quantify the inadequacy of human perception with regards to direct observation of the breakdown of the trajectory concept implied by the uncertainty principle. Even with the best optical microscope, human vision is inadequate by three orders of magnitude. 1 figure

Uncertainty principles for inverse source problems for electromagnetic and elastic waves

Science.gov (United States)

Griesmaier, Roland; Sylvester, John

2018-06-01

In isotropic homogeneous media, far fields of time-harmonic electromagnetic waves radiated by compactly supported volume currents, and elastic waves radiated by compactly supported body force densities can be modelled in very similar fashions. Both are projected restricted Fourier transforms of vector-valued source terms. In this work we generalize two types of uncertainty principles recently developed for far fields of scalar-valued time-harmonic waves in Griesmaier and Sylvester (2017 SIAM J. Appl. Math. 77 154–80) to this vector-valued setting. These uncertainty principles yield stability criteria and algorithms for splitting far fields radiated by collections of well-separated sources into the far fields radiated by individual source components, and for the restoration of missing data segments. We discuss proper regularization strategies for these inverse problems, provide stability estimates based on the new uncertainty principles, and comment on reconstruction schemes. A numerical example illustrates our theoretical findings.

Covariant energy–momentum and an uncertainty principle for general relativity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cooperstock, F.I., E-mail: cooperst@uvic.ca [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Victoria, P.O. Box 3055, Victoria, B.C. V8W 3P6 (Canada); Dupre, M.J., E-mail: mdupre@tulane.edu [Department of Mathematics, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA 70118 (United States)

2013-12-15

We introduce a naturally-defined totally invariant spacetime energy expression for general relativity incorporating the contribution from gravity. The extension links seamlessly to the action integral for the gravitational field. The demand that the general expression for arbitrary systems reduces to the Tolman integral in the case of stationary bounded distributions, leads to the matter-localized Ricci integral for energy–momentum in support of the energy localization hypothesis. The role of the observer is addressed and as an extension of the special relativistic case, the field of observers comoving with the matter is seen to compute the intrinsic global energy of a system. The new localized energy supports the Bonnor claim that the Szekeres collapsing dust solutions are energy-conserving. It is suggested that in the extreme of strong gravity, the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle be generalized in terms of spacetime energy–momentum. -- Highlights: •We present a totally invariant spacetime energy expression for general relativity incorporating the contribution from gravity. •Demand for the general expression to reduce to the Tolman integral for stationary systems supports the Ricci integral as energy–momentum. •Localized energy via the Ricci integral is consistent with the energy localization hypothesis. •New localized energy supports the Bonnor claim that the Szekeres collapsing dust solutions are energy-conserving. •Suggest the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle be generalized in terms of spacetime energy–momentum in strong gravity extreme.

A revision of the generalized uncertainty principle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bambi, Cosimo

2008-01-01

The generalized uncertainty principle arises from the Heisenberg uncertainty principle when gravity is taken into account, so the leading order correction to the standard formula is expected to be proportional to the gravitational constant G N = L 2 Pl . On the other hand, the emerging picture suggests a set of departures from the standard theory which demand a revision of all the arguments used to deduce heuristically the new rule. In particular, one can now argue that the leading order correction to the Heisenberg uncertainty principle is proportional to the first power of the Planck length L Pl . If so, the departures from ordinary quantum mechanics would be much less suppressed than what is commonly thought

Economic uncertainty principle?

OpenAIRE

Alexander Harin

2006-01-01

The economic principle of (hidden) uncertainty is presented. New probability formulas are offered. Examples of solutions of three types of fundamental problems are reviewed.; Principe d'incertitude économique? Le principe économique d'incertitude (cachée) est présenté. De nouvelles formules de chances sont offertes. Les exemples de solutions des trois types de problèmes fondamentaux sont reconsidérés.

The Uncertainty Principle in the Presence of Quantum Memory

Science.gov (United States)

Renes, Joseph M.; Berta, Mario; Christandl, Matthias; Colbeck, Roger; Renner, Renato

2010-03-01

One consequence of Heisenberg's uncertainty principle is that no observer can predict the outcomes of two incompatible measurements performed on a system to arbitrary precision. However, this implication is invalid if the the observer possesses a quantum memory, a distinct possibility in light of recent technological advances. Entanglement between the system and the memory is responsible for the breakdown of the uncertainty principle, as illustrated by the EPR paradox. In this work we present an improved uncertainty principle which takes this entanglement into account. By quantifying uncertainty using entropy, we show that the sum of the entropies associated with incompatible measurements must exceed a quantity which depends on the degree of incompatibility and the amount of entanglement between system and memory. Apart from its foundational significance, the uncertainty principle motivated the first proposals for quantum cryptography, though the possibility of an eavesdropper having a quantum memory rules out using the original version to argue that these proposals are secure. The uncertainty relation introduced here alleviates this problem and paves the way for its widespread use in quantum cryptography.

Generalized uncertainty principle and quantum gravity phenomenology

Science.gov (United States)

Bosso, Pasquale

The fundamental physical description of Nature is based on two mutually incompatible theories: Quantum Mechanics and General Relativity. Their unification in a theory of Quantum Gravity (QG) remains one of the main challenges of theoretical physics. Quantum Gravity Phenomenology (QGP) studies QG effects in low-energy systems. The basis of one such phenomenological model is the Generalized Uncertainty Principle (GUP), which is a modified Heisenberg uncertainty relation and predicts a deformed canonical commutator. In this thesis, we compute Planck-scale corrections to angular momentum eigenvalues, the hydrogen atom spectrum, the Stern-Gerlach experiment, and the Clebsch-Gordan coefficients. We then rigorously analyze the GUP-perturbed harmonic oscillator and study new coherent and squeezed states. Furthermore, we introduce a scheme for increasing the sensitivity of optomechanical experiments for testing QG effects. Finally, we suggest future projects that may potentially test QG effects in the laboratory.

The uncertainty principle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martens, Hans.

1991-01-01

The subject of this thesis is the uncertainty principle (UP). The UP is one of the most characteristic points of differences between quantum and classical mechanics. The starting point of this thesis is the work of Niels Bohr. Besides the discussion the work is also analyzed. For the discussion of the different aspects of the UP the formalism of Davies and Ludwig is used instead of the more commonly used formalism of Neumann and Dirac. (author). 214 refs.; 23 figs

Science 101: What, Exactly, Is the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle?

Science.gov (United States)

Robertson, Bill

2016-01-01

Bill Robertson is the author of the NSTA Press book series, "Stop Faking It! Finally Understanding Science So You Can Teach It." In this month's issue, Robertson describes and explains the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle. The Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle was discussed on "The Big Bang Theory," the lead character in…

Wave Energy Converter Annual Energy Production Uncertainty Using Simulations

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Clayton E. Hiles

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Critical to evaluating the economic viability of a wave energy project is: (1 a robust estimate of the electricity production throughout the project lifetime and (2 an understanding of the uncertainty associated with said estimate. Standardization efforts have established mean annual energy production (MAEP as the metric for quantification of wave energy converter (WEC electricity production and the performance matrix approach as the appropriate method for calculation. General acceptance of a method for calculating the MAEP uncertainty has not yet been achieved. Several authors have proposed methods based on the standard engineering approach to error propagation, however, a lack of available WEC deployment data has restricted testing of these methods. In this work the magnitude and sensitivity of MAEP uncertainty is investigated. The analysis is driven by data from simulated deployments of 2 WECs of different operating principle at 4 different locations. A Monte Carlo simulation approach is proposed for calculating the variability of MAEP estimates and is used to explore the sensitivity of the calculation. The uncertainty of MAEP ranged from 2%–20% of the mean value. Of the contributing uncertainties studied, the variability in the wave climate was found responsible for most of the uncertainty in MAEP. Uncertainty in MAEP differs considerably between WEC types and between deployment locations and is sensitive to the length of the input data-sets. This implies that if a certain maximum level of uncertainty in MAEP is targeted, the minimum required lengths of the input data-sets will be different for every WEC-location combination.

The action uncertainty principle and quantum gravity

Science.gov (United States)

Mensky, Michael B.

1992-02-01

Results of the path-integral approach to the quantum theory of continuous measurements have been formulated in a preceding paper in the form of an inequality of the type of the uncertainty principle. The new inequality was called the action uncertainty principle, AUP. It was shown that the AUP allows one to find in a simple what outputs of the continuous measurements will occur with high probability. Here a more simple form of the AUP will be formulated, δ S≳ħ. When applied to quantum gravity, it leads in a very simple way to the Rosenfeld inequality for measurability of the average curvature.

Uncertainty principle in loop quantum cosmology by Moyal formalism

Science.gov (United States)

Perlov, Leonid

2018-03-01

In this paper, we derive the uncertainty principle for the loop quantum cosmology homogeneous and isotropic Friedmann-Lemaiter-Robertson-Walker model with the holonomy-flux algebra. The uncertainty principle is between the variables c, with the meaning of connection and μ having the meaning of the physical cell volume to the power 2/3, i.e., v2 /3 or a plaquette area. Since both μ and c are not operators, but rather the random variables, the Robertson uncertainty principle derivation that works for hermitian operators cannot be used. Instead we use the Wigner-Moyal-Groenewold phase space formalism. The Wigner-Moyal-Groenewold formalism was originally applied to the Heisenberg algebra of the quantum mechanics. One can derive it from both the canonical and path integral quantum mechanics as well as the uncertainty principle. In this paper, we apply it to the holonomy-flux algebra in the case of the homogeneous and isotropic space. Another result is the expression for the Wigner function on the space of the cylindrical wave functions defined on Rb in c variables rather than in dual space μ variables.

The Quark-Gluon Plasma Equation of State and the Generalized Uncertainty Principle

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. I. Abou-Salem

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The quark-gluon plasma (QGP equation of state within a minimal length scenario or Generalized Uncertainty Principle (GUP is studied. The Generalized Uncertainty Principle is implemented on deriving the thermodynamics of ideal QGP at a vanishing chemical potential. We find a significant effect for the GUP term. The main features of QCD lattice results were quantitatively achieved in case of nf=0, nf=2, and nf=2+1 flavors for the energy density, the pressure, and the interaction measure. The exciting point is the large value of bag pressure especially in case of nf=2+1 flavor which reflects the strong correlation between quarks in this bag which is already expected. One can notice that the asymptotic behavior which is characterized by Stephan-Boltzmann limit would be satisfied.

Optimal Time to Invest Energy Storage System under Uncertainty Conditions

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Yongma Moon

2014-04-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a model to determine the optimal investment time for energy storage systems (ESSs in a price arbitrage trade application under conditions of uncertainty over future profits. The adoption of ESSs can generate profits from price arbitrage trade, which are uncertain because the future marginal prices of electricity will change depending on supply and demand. In addition, since the investment is optional, an investor can delay adopting an ESS until it becomes profitable, and can decide the optimal time. Thus, when we evaluate this investment, we need to incorporate the investor’s option which is not captured by traditional evaluation methods. In order to incorporate these aspects, we applied real option theory to our proposed model, which provides an optimal investment threshold. Our results concerning the optimal time to invest show that if future profits that are expected to be obtained from arbitrage trade become more uncertain, an investor needs to wait longer to invest. Also, improvement in efficiency of ESSs can reduce the uncertainty of arbitrage profit and, consequently, the reduced uncertainty enables earlier ESS investment, even for the same power capacity. Besides, when a higher rate of profits is expected and ESS costs are higher, an investor needs to wait longer. Also, by comparing a widely used net present value model to our real option model, we show that the net present value method underestimates the value for ESS investment and misleads the investor to make an investment earlier.

Generalized uncertainty principles, effective Newton constant and regular black holes

OpenAIRE

Li, Xiang; Ling, Yi; Shen, You-Gen; Liu, Cheng-Zhou; He, Hong-Sheng; Xu, Lan-Fang

2016-01-01

In this paper, we explore the quantum spacetimes that are potentially connected with the generalized uncertainty principles. By analyzing the gravity-induced quantum interference pattern and the Gedanken for weighting photon, we find that the generalized uncertainty principles inspire the effective Newton constant as same as our previous proposal. A characteristic momentum associated with the tidal effect is suggested, which incorporates the quantum effect with the geometric nature of gravity...

A review of the generalized uncertainty principle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tawfik, Abdel Nasser; Diab, Abdel Magied

2015-01-01

Based on string theory, black hole physics, doubly special relativity and some ‘thought’ experiments, minimal distance and/or maximum momentum are proposed. As alternatives to the generalized uncertainty principle (GUP), the modified dispersion relation, the space noncommutativity, the Lorentz invariance violation, and the quantum-gravity-induced birefringence effects are summarized. The origin of minimal measurable quantities and the different GUP approaches are reviewed and the corresponding observations are analysed. Bounds on the GUP parameter are discussed and implemented in the understanding of recent PLANCK observations of cosmic inflation. The higher-order GUP approaches predict minimal length uncertainty with and without maximum momenta. Possible arguments against the GUP are discussed; for instance, the concern about its compatibility with the equivalence principles, the universality of gravitational redshift and the free fall and law of reciprocal action are addressed. (review)

Towards Thermodynamics with Generalized Uncertainty Principle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moussa, Mohamed; Farag Ali, Ahmed

2014-01-01

Various frameworks of quantum gravity predict a modification in the Heisenberg uncertainty principle to a so-called generalized uncertainty principle (GUP). Introducing quantum gravity effect makes a considerable change in the density of states inside the volume of the phase space which changes the statistical and thermodynamical properties of any physical system. In this paper we investigate the modification in thermodynamic properties of ideal gases and photon gas. The partition function is calculated and using it we calculated a considerable growth in the thermodynamical functions for these considered systems. The growth may happen due to an additional repulsive force between constitutes of gases which may be due to the existence of GUP, hence predicting a considerable increase in the entropy of the system. Besides, by applying GUP on an ideal gas in a trapped potential, it is found that GUP assumes a minimum measurable value of thermal wavelength of particles which agrees with discrete nature of the space that has been derived in previous studies from the GUP

Impacts of generalized uncertainty principle on black hole thermodynamics and Salecker-Wigner inequalities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tawfik, A.

2013-01-01

We investigate the impacts of Generalized Uncertainty Principle (GUP) proposed by some approaches to quantum gravity such as String Theory and Doubly Special Relativity on black hole thermodynamics and Salecker-Wigner inequalities. Utilizing Heisenberg uncertainty principle, the Hawking temperature, Bekenstein entropy, specific heat, emission rate and decay time are calculated. As the evaporation entirely eats up the black hole mass, the specific heat vanishes and the temperature approaches infinity with an infinite radiation rate. It is found that the GUP approach prevents the black hole from the entire evaporation. It implies the existence of remnants at which the specific heat vanishes. The same role is played by the Heisenberg uncertainty principle in constructing the hydrogen atom. We discuss how the linear GUP approach solves the entire-evaporation-problem. Furthermore, the black hole lifetime can be estimated using another approach; the Salecker-Wigner inequalities. Assuming that the quantum position uncertainty is limited to the minimum wavelength of measuring signal, Wigner second inequality can be obtained. If the spread of quantum clock is limited to some minimum value, then the modified black hole lifetime can be deduced. Based on linear GUP approach, the resulting lifetime difference depends on black hole relative mass and the difference between black hole mass with and without GUP is not negligible

Supersymmetry Breaking as a new source for the Generalized Uncertainty Principle

OpenAIRE

Faizal, Mir

2016-01-01

In this letter, we will demonstrate that the breaking of supersymmetry by a non-anticommutative deformation can be used to generate the generalized uncertainty principle. We will analyze the physical reasons for this observation, in the framework of string theory. We also discuss the relation between the generalized uncertainty principle and the Lee–Wick field theories.

Supersymmetry breaking as a new source for the generalized uncertainty principle

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Faizal, Mir, E-mail: mirfaizalmir@gmail.com

2016-06-10

In this letter, we will demonstrate that the breaking of supersymmetry by a non-anticommutative deformation can be used to generate the generalized uncertainty principle. We will analyze the physical reasons for this observation, in the framework of string theory. We also discuss the relation between the generalized uncertainty principle and the Lee–Wick field theories.

Quantification of uncertainty in first-principles predicted mechanical properties of solids: Application to solid ion conductors

Science.gov (United States)

Ahmad, Zeeshan; Viswanathan, Venkatasubramanian

2016-08-01

Computationally-guided material discovery is being increasingly employed using a descriptor-based screening through the calculation of a few properties of interest. A precise understanding of the uncertainty associated with first-principles density functional theory calculated property values is important for the success of descriptor-based screening. The Bayesian error estimation approach has been built in to several recently developed exchange-correlation functionals, which allows an estimate of the uncertainty associated with properties related to the ground state energy, for example, adsorption energies. Here, we propose a robust and computationally efficient method for quantifying uncertainty in mechanical properties, which depend on the derivatives of the energy. The procedure involves calculating energies around the equilibrium cell volume with different strains and fitting the obtained energies to the corresponding energy-strain relationship. At each strain, we use instead of a single energy, an ensemble of energies, giving us an ensemble of fits and thereby, an ensemble of mechanical properties associated with each fit, whose spread can be used to quantify its uncertainty. The generation of ensemble of energies is only a post-processing step involving a perturbation of parameters of the exchange-correlation functional and solving for the energy non-self-consistently. The proposed method is computationally efficient and provides a more robust uncertainty estimate compared to the approach of self-consistent calculations employing several different exchange-correlation functionals. We demonstrate the method by calculating the uncertainty bounds for several materials belonging to different classes and having different structures using the developed method. We show that the calculated uncertainty bounds the property values obtained using three different GGA functionals: PBE, PBEsol, and RPBE. Finally, we apply the approach to calculate the uncertainty

The most general form of deformation of the Heisenberg algebra from the generalized uncertainty principle

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Masood, Syed [Department of Physics, International Islamic University, H-10 Sector, Islamabad (Pakistan); Faizal, Mir, E-mail: mirfaizalmir@gmail.com [Irving K. Barber School of Arts and Sciences, University of British Columbia – Okanagan, Kelowna, BC V1V 1V7 (Canada); Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Lethbridge, Lethbridge, AB T1K 3M4 (Canada); Zaz, Zaid [Department of Electronics and Communication Engineering, University of Kashmir, Srinagar, Kashmir, 190006 (India); Ali, Ahmed Farag [Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Benha University, Benha, 13518 (Egypt); Raza, Jamil [Department of Physics, International Islamic University, H-10 Sector, Islamabad (Pakistan); Shah, Mushtaq B. [Department of Physics, National Institute of Technology, Srinagar, Kashmir, 190006 (India)

2016-12-10

In this paper, we will propose the most general form of the deformation of Heisenberg algebra motivated by the generalized uncertainty principle. This deformation of the Heisenberg algebra will deform all quantum mechanical systems. The form of the generalized uncertainty principle used to motivate these results will be motivated by the space fractional quantum mechanics, and non-locality in quantum mechanical systems. We also analyse a specific limit of this generalized deformation for one dimensional system, and in that limit, a nonlocal deformation of the momentum operator generates a local deformation of all one dimensional quantum mechanical systems. We analyse the low energy effects of this deformation on a harmonic oscillator, Landau levels, Lamb shift, and potential barrier. We also demonstrate that this deformation leads to a discretization of space.

The most general form of deformation of the Heisenberg algebra from the generalized uncertainty principle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Masood, Syed; Faizal, Mir; Zaz, Zaid; Ali, Ahmed Farag; Raza, Jamil; Shah, Mushtaq B.

2016-01-01

In this paper, we will propose the most general form of the deformation of Heisenberg algebra motivated by the generalized uncertainty principle. This deformation of the Heisenberg algebra will deform all quantum mechanical systems. The form of the generalized uncertainty principle used to motivate these results will be motivated by the space fractional quantum mechanics, and non-locality in quantum mechanical systems. We also analyse a specific limit of this generalized deformation for one dimensional system, and in that limit, a nonlocal deformation of the momentum operator generates a local deformation of all one dimensional quantum mechanical systems. We analyse the low energy effects of this deformation on a harmonic oscillator, Landau levels, Lamb shift, and potential barrier. We also demonstrate that this deformation leads to a discretization of space.

Uncertainty Principles on Two Step Nilpotent Lie Groups

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Abstract. We extend an uncertainty principle due to Cowling and Price to two step nilpotent Lie groups, which generalizes a classical theorem of Hardy. We also prove an analogue of Heisenberg inequality on two step nilpotent Lie groups.

Gauge theories under incorporation of a generalized uncertainty principle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kober, Martin

2010-01-01

There is considered an extension of gauge theories according to the assumption of a generalized uncertainty principle which implies a minimal length scale. A modification of the usual uncertainty principle implies an extended shape of matter field equations like the Dirac equation. If there is postulated invariance of such a generalized field equation under local gauge transformations, the usual covariant derivative containing the gauge potential has to be replaced by a generalized covariant derivative. This leads to a generalized interaction between the matter field and the gauge field as well as to an additional self-interaction of the gauge field. Since the existence of a minimal length scale seems to be a necessary assumption of any consistent quantum theory of gravity, the gauge principle is a constitutive ingredient of the standard model, and even gravity can be described as gauge theory of local translations or Lorentz transformations, the presented extension of gauge theories appears as a very important consideration.

The 'Herbivory Uncertainty Principle': application in a cerrado site

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CA Gadotti

Full Text Available Researchers may alter the ecology of their studied organisms, even carrying out apparently beneficial activities, as in herbivory studies, when they may alter herbivory damage. We tested whether visit frequency altered herbivory damage, as predicted by the 'Herbivory Uncertainty Principle'. In a cerrado site, we established 80 quadrats, in which we sampled all woody individuals. We used four visit frequencies (high, medium, low, and control, quantifying, at the end of three months, herbivory damage for each species in each treatment. We did not corroborate the 'Herbivory Uncertainty Principle', since visiting frequency did not alter herbivory damage, at least when the whole plant community was taken into account. However, when we analysed each species separately, four out of 11 species presented significant differences in herbivory damage, suggesting that the researcher is not independent of its measurements. The principle could be tested in other ecological studies in which it may occur, such as those on animal behaviour, human ecology, population dynamics, and conservation.

On the Momentum Transported by the Radiation Field of a Long Transient Dipole and Time Energy Uncertainty Principle

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vernon Cooray

2016-11-01

Full Text Available The paper describes the net momentum transported by the transient electromagnetic radiation field of a long transient dipole in free space. In the dipole a current is initiated at one end and propagates towards the other end where it is absorbed. The results show that the net momentum transported by the radiation is directed along the axis of the dipole where the currents are propagating. In general, the net momentum P transported by the electromagnetic radiation of the dipole is less than the quantity U / c , where U is the total energy radiated by the dipole and c is the speed of light in free space. In the case of a Hertzian dipole, the net momentum transported by the radiation field is zero because of the spatial symmetry of the radiation field. As the effective wavelength of the current decreases with respect to the length of the dipole (or the duration of the current decreases with respect to the travel time of the current along the dipole, the net momentum transported by the radiation field becomes closer and closer to U / c , and for effective wavelengths which are much shorter than the length of the dipole, P ≈ U / c . The results show that when the condition P ≈ U / c is satisfied, the radiated fields satisfy the condition Δ t Δ U ≥ h / 4 π where Δ t is the duration of the radiation, Δ U is the uncertainty in the dissipated energy and h is the Plank constant.

Quantum speed limits: from Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle to optimal quantum control

Science.gov (United States)

Deffner, Sebastian; Campbell, Steve

2017-11-01

One of the most widely known building blocks of modern physics is Heisenberg’s indeterminacy principle. Among the different statements of this fundamental property of the full quantum mechanical nature of physical reality, the uncertainty relation for energy and time has a special place. Its interpretation and its consequences have inspired continued research efforts for almost a century. In its modern formulation, the uncertainty relation is understood as setting a fundamental bound on how fast any quantum system can evolve. In this topical review we describe important milestones, such as the Mandelstam-Tamm and the Margolus-Levitin bounds on the quantum speed limit, and summarise recent applications in a variety of current research fields—including quantum information theory, quantum computing, and quantum thermodynamics amongst several others. To bring order and to provide an access point into the many different notions and concepts, we have grouped the various approaches into the minimal time approach and the geometric approach, where the former relies on quantum control theory, and the latter arises from measuring the distinguishability of quantum states. Due to the volume of the literature, this topical review can only present a snapshot of the current state-of-the-art and can never be fully comprehensive. Therefore, we highlight but a few works hoping that our selection can serve as a representative starting point for the interested reader.

Quantum speed limits: from Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle to optimal quantum control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Deffner, Sebastian; Campbell, Steve

2017-01-01

One of the most widely known building blocks of modern physics is Heisenberg’s indeterminacy principle. Among the different statements of this fundamental property of the full quantum mechanical nature of physical reality, the uncertainty relation for energy and time has a special place. Its interpretation and its consequences have inspired continued research efforts for almost a century. In its modern formulation, the uncertainty relation is understood as setting a fundamental bound on how fast any quantum system can evolve. In this topical review we describe important milestones, such as the Mandelstam–Tamm and the Margolus–Levitin bounds on the quantum speed limit , and summarise recent applications in a variety of current research fields—including quantum information theory, quantum computing, and quantum thermodynamics amongst several others. To bring order and to provide an access point into the many different notions and concepts, we have grouped the various approaches into the minimal time approach and the geometric approach , where the former relies on quantum control theory, and the latter arises from measuring the distinguishability of quantum states. Due to the volume of the literature, this topical review can only present a snapshot of the current state-of-the-art and can never be fully comprehensive. Therefore, we highlight but a few works hoping that our selection can serve as a representative starting point for the interested reader. (topical review)

Universal uncertainty principle in the measurement operator formalism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ozawa, Masanao

2005-01-01

Heisenberg's uncertainty principle has been understood to set a limitation on measurements; however, the long-standing mathematical formulation established by Heisenberg, Kennard, and Robertson does not allow such an interpretation. Recently, a new relation was found to give a universally valid relation between noise and disturbance in general quantum measurements, and it has become clear that the new relation plays a role of the first principle to derive various quantum limits on measurement and information processing in a unified treatment. This paper examines the above development on the noise-disturbance uncertainty principle in the model-independent approach based on the measurement operator formalism, which is widely accepted to describe a class of generalized measurements in the field of quantum information. We obtain explicit formulae for the noise and disturbance of measurements given by measurement operators, and show that projective measurements do not satisfy the Heisenberg-type noise-disturbance relation that is typical in the gamma-ray microscope thought experiments. We also show that the disturbance on a Pauli operator of a projective measurement of another Pauli operator constantly equals √2, and examine how this measurement violates the Heisenberg-type relation but satisfies the new noise-disturbance relation

Precautionary principle, economic and energy systems and social equity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carvalho, Joaquim Francisco de; Mercedes, Sonia Seger P.; Sauer, Ildo L.

2010-01-01

In this paper the precautionary principle is reviewed alongside the process of international implementation. Adoption of the precautionary principle is advocated to deal with energy choices as a mechanism to account for potential climate change impacts, notwithstanding the debate on scientific uncertainty on the links between solar activity, greenhouse gas concentration and climate. However, it is also recognized that the widespread application of the precautionary principle to energy choices does not seem to be taking place in the real world. Relevant concrete barriers are identified stemming from the intrinsic logic governing the hegemonic economic system, driving the energy choices by economic surplus and rent generation potential, the existence of social asymmetries inside and among societies as well as by the absence of democratic global governance mechanisms, capable of dealing with climate change issues. Such perception seems to have been reinforced by the outcome of the United Nations Climate Change Conference, held in Copenhagen in December 2009.

Uncertainty in relative energy resolution measurements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Volkovitsky, P.; Yen, J.; Cumberland, L.

2007-01-01

We suggest a new method for the determination of the detector relative energy resolution and its uncertainty based on spline approximation of experimental spectra and a statistical bootstrapping procedure. The proposed method is applied to the spectra obtained with NaI(Tl) scintillating detectors and 137 Cs sources. The spectrum histogram with background subtracted channel-by-channel is modeled by cubic spline approximation. The relative energy resolution (which is also known as pulse height resolution and energy resolution), defined as the full-width at half-maximum (FWHM) divided by the value of peak centroid, is calculated using the intercepts of the spline curve with the line of the half peak height. The value of the peak height is determined as the point where the value of the derivative goes to zero. The residuals, which are normalized over the square root of counts in a given bin (y-coordinate), obey the standard Gaussian distribution. The values of these residuals are randomly re-assigned to a different set of y-coordinates where a new 'pseudo-experimental' data set is obtained after 'de-normalization' of the old values. For this new data set a new spline approximation is found and the whole procedure is repeated several hundred times, until the standard deviation of relative energy resolution becomes stabilized. The standard deviation of relative energy resolutions calculated for each 'pseudo-experimental' data set (bootstrap uncertainty) is considered to be an estimate for relative energy resolution uncertainty. It is also shown that the relative bootstrap uncertainty is proportional to, and generally only two to three times bigger than, 1/√(N tot ), which is the relative statistical count uncertainty (N tot is the total number of counts under the peak). The newly suggested method is also applicable to other radiation and particle detectors, not only for relative energy resolution, but also for any of the other parameters in a measured spectrum, like

Measurement and uncertainties of energy loss in silicon over a wide Z sub 1 range using time of flight detector telescopes

CERN Document Server

Whitlow, H J; Elliman, R G; Weijers, T D M; Zhang Yan Wen; O'connor, D J

2002-01-01

The energy loss of projectiles with Z sub 1 in the range 3-26 has been experimentally measured in the 0.1-0.7 MeV per nucleon energy range in the same Si stopping foil of 105.5 mu g cm sup - sup 2 thickness using a time of flight-energy (ToF-E) elastic recoil detection analysis (ERDA) setup. A detailed study of the experimental uncertainties for ToF-E and ToF-ToF-E configuration has been made. For ERDA configurations where the energy calibration is taken against the edge positions small uncertainties in the angle at which recoils are detected can introduce significant absolute uncertainty. The relative uncertainty contribution is dominated by the energy calibration of the Si E detector for the ToF-E configuration and the position of the second ToF detector in ToF-ToF-E measurements. The much smaller calibration uncertainty for ToF-ToF-E configuration implies this technique is superior to ToF-E measurements with Si E detectors. At low energies the effect of charge changing in the time detector foils can become...

Generalized uncertainty principle and entropy of three-dimensional rotating acoustic black hole

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhao, HuiHua; Li, GuangLiang; Zhang, LiChun

2012-01-01

Using the new equation of state density from the generalized uncertainty principle, we investigate statistics entropy of a 3-dimensional rotating acoustic black hole. When λ introduced in the generalized uncertainty principle takes a specific value, we obtain an area entropy and a correction term associated with the acoustic black hole. In this method, there does not exist any divergence and one needs not the small mass approximation in the original brick-wall model. -- Highlights: ► Statistics entropy of a 3-dimensional rotating acoustic black hole is studied. ► We obtain an area entropy and a correction term associated with it. ► We make λ introduced in the generalized uncertainty principle take a specific value. ► There does not exist any divergence in this method.

A connection between the Uncertainty Principles on the real line and on the circle

OpenAIRE

Andersen, Nils Byrial

2013-01-01

The purpose of this short note is to exhibit a new connection between the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle on the line and the Breitenberger Uncertainty Principle on the circle, by considering the commutator of the multiplication and difference operators on Bernstein functions

Piezoelectric energy harvesting with parametric uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ali, S F; Friswell, M I; Adhikari, S

2010-01-01

The design and analysis of energy harvesting devices is becoming increasing important in recent years. Most of the literature has focused on the deterministic analysis of these systems and the problem of uncertain parameters has received less attention. Energy harvesting devices exhibit parametric uncertainty due to errors in measurement, errors in modelling and variability in the parameters during manufacture. This paper investigates the effect of parametric uncertainty in the mechanical system on the harvested power, and derives approximate explicit formulae for the optimal electrical parameters that maximize the mean harvested power. The maximum of the mean harvested power decreases with increasing uncertainty, and the optimal frequency at which the maximum mean power occurs shifts. The effect of the parameter variance on the optimal electrical time constant and optimal coupling coefficient are reported. Monte Carlo based simulation results are used to further analyse the system under parametric uncertainty

Continuous quantum measurements and the action uncertainty principle

Science.gov (United States)

Mensky, Michael B.

1992-09-01

The path-integral approach to quantum theory of continuous measurements has been developed in preceding works of the author. According to this approach the measurement amplitude determining probabilities of different outputs of the measurement can be evaluated in the form of a restricted path integral (a path integral “in finite limits”). With the help of the measurement amplitude, maximum deviation of measurement outputs from the classical one can be easily determined. The aim of the present paper is to express this variance in a simpler and transparent form of a specific uncertainty principle (called the action uncertainty principle, AUP). The most simple (but weak) form of AUP is δ S≳ℏ, where S is the action functional. It can be applied for simple derivation of the Bohr-Rosenfeld inequality for measurability of gravitational field. A stronger (and having wider application) form of AUP (for ideal measurements performed in the quantum regime) is |∫{/' t″ }(δ S[ q]/δ q( t))Δ q( t) dt|≃ℏ, where the paths [ q] and [Δ q] stand correspondingly for the measurement output and for the measurement error. It can also be presented in symbolic form as Δ(Equation) Δ(Path) ≃ ℏ. This means that deviation of the observed (measured) motion from that obeying the classical equation of motion is reciprocally proportional to the uncertainty in a path (the latter uncertainty resulting from the measurement error). The consequence of AUP is that improving the measurement precision beyond the threshold of the quantum regime leads to decreasing information resulting from the measurement.

Theoretical formulation of finite-dimensional discrete phase spaces: I. Algebraic structures and uncertainty principles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marchiolli, M.A.; Ruzzi, M.

2012-01-01

We propose a self-consistent theoretical framework for a wide class of physical systems characterized by a finite space of states which allows us, within several mathematical virtues, to construct a discrete version of the Weyl–Wigner–Moyal (WWM) formalism for finite-dimensional discrete phase spaces with toroidal topology. As a first and important application from this ab initio approach, we initially investigate the Robertson–Schrödinger (RS) uncertainty principle related to the discrete coordinate and momentum operators, as well as its implications for physical systems with periodic boundary conditions. The second interesting application is associated with a particular uncertainty principle inherent to the unitary operators, which is based on the Wiener–Khinchin theorem for signal processing. Furthermore, we also establish a modified discrete version for the well-known Heisenberg–Kennard–Robertson (HKR) uncertainty principle, which exhibits additional terms (or corrections) that resemble the generalized uncertainty principle (GUP) into the context of quantum gravity. The results obtained from this new algebraic approach touch on some fundamental questions inherent to quantum mechanics and certainly represent an object of future investigations in physics. - Highlights: ► We construct a discrete version of the Weyl–Wigner–Moyal formalism. ► Coherent states for finite-dimensional discrete phase spaces are established. ► Discrete coordinate and momentum operators are properly defined. ► Uncertainty principles depend on the topology of finite physical systems. ► Corrections for the discrete Heisenberg uncertainty relation are also obtained.

Proceedings of a workshop on dealing with uncertainties in the hydroelectric energy business. CD-ROM ed.

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-01-01

This workshop was attended by experts in Canadian and international hydroelectric utilities to exchange information on current practices and opportunities for improvement or future cooperation. The discussions focused on reducing the uncertainties associated with hydroelectric power production. Although significant improvements have been made in the efficiency, reliability and safety of hydroelectric power production, the sector is still challenged by the uncertainty of water supply which depends greatly on weather conditions. Energy markets pose another challenge to power producers in terms of energy supply, energy demand and energy prices. The workshop focused on 3 themes: (1) weather and hydrologic uncertainty, (2) market uncertainty, and (3) decision making models using uncertainty principles surrounding water resource planning and operation. The workshop featured 22 presentations of which 11 have been indexed separately for inclusion in this database. refs., tabs., figs

Reducing Uncertainty: Implementation of Heisenberg Principle to Measure Company Performance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anna Svirina

2015-08-01

Full Text Available The paper addresses the problem of uncertainty reduction in estimation of future company performance, which is a result of wide range of enterprise's intangible assets probable efficiency. To reduce this problem, the paper suggests to use quantum economy principles, i.e. implementation of Heisenberg principle to measure efficiency and potential of intangible assets of the company. It is proposed that for intangibles it is not possible to estimate both potential and efficiency at a certain time point. To provide a proof for these thesis, the data on resources potential and efficiency from mid-Russian companies was evaluated within deterministic approach, which did not allow to evaluate probability of achieving certain resource efficiency, and quantum approach, which allowed to estimate the central point around which the probable efficiency of resources in concentrated. Visualization of these approaches was performed by means of LabView software. It was proven that for tangible assets performance estimation a deterministic approach should be used; while for intangible assets the quantum approach allows better quality of future performance prediction. On the basis of these findings we proposed the holistic approach towards estimation of company resource efficiency in order to reduce uncertainty in modeling company performance.

Elastic scattering dynamics of cavity polaritons: Evidence for time-energy uncertainty and polariton localization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Langbein, Wolfgang Werner; Hvam, Jørn Märcher

2002-01-01

The directional dynamics of the resonant Rayleigh scattering from a semiconductor microcavity is investigated. When optically exciting the lower polariton branch, the strong dispersion results in a directional emission on a ring. The coherent emission ring shows a reduction of its angular width...... for increasing time after excitation, giving direct evidence for the time-energy uncertainty in the dynamics of the scattering by disorder. The ring width converges with time to a finite value, a direct measure of an intrinsic momentum broadening of the polariton states localized by multiple disorder scattering....

Energy price uncertainty, energy intensity and firm investment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoon, Kyung Hwan; Ratti, Ronald A.

2011-01-01

This paper examines the effect of energy price uncertainty on firm-level investment. An error correction model of capital stock adjustment is estimated with data on U.S. manufacturing firms. Higher energy price uncertainty is found to make firms more cautious by reducing the responsiveness of investment to sales growth. The result is robust to consideration of energy intensity by industry. The effect is greater for high growth firms. It must be emphasized that the direct effect of uncertainty is not estimated. Conditional variance of energy price is obtained from a GARCH model. Findings suggest that stability in energy prices would be conducive to greater stability in firm-level investment. (author)

Lacunary Fourier Series and a Qualitative Uncertainty Principle for ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

We define lacunary Fourier series on a compact connected semisimple Lie group . If f ∈ L 1 ( G ) has lacunary Fourier series and vanishes on a non empty open subset of , then we prove that vanishes identically. This result can be viewed as a qualitative uncertainty principle.

Another two dark energy models motivated from Karolyhazy uncertainty relation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sun, Cheng-Yi; Yang, Wen-Li; Song, Yu. [Northwest University, Institute of Modern Physics, Xian (China); Yue, Rui-Hong [Ningbo University, Faculty of Science, Ningbo (China)

2012-03-15

The Karolyhazy uncertainty relation indicates that there exists a minimal detectable cell {delta}t{sup 3} over the region t{sup 3} in Minkowski space-time. Due to the energy-time uncertainty relation, the energy of the cell {delta}t {sup 3} cannot be less {delta}t{sup -1}. Then we get a new energy density of metric fluctuations of Minkowski spacetime as {delta}t{sup -4}. Motivated by the energy density, we propose two new dark-energy models. One model is characterized by the age of the universe and the other is characterized by the conformal age of the universe. We find that in the two models, the dark energy mimics a cosmological constant in the late time. (orig.)

Blockchain to Rule the Waves - Nascent Design Principles for Reducing Risk and Uncertainty in Decentralized Environments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nærland, Kristoffer; Müller-Bloch, Christoph; Beck, Roman

2017-01-01

Many decentralized, inter-organizational environments such as supply chains are characterized by high transactional uncertainty and risk. At the same time, blockchain technology promises to mitigate these issues by introducing certainty into economic transactions. This paper discusses the findings...... of a Design Science Research project involving the construction and evaluation of an information technology artifact in collaboration with Maersk, a leading international shipping company, where central documents in shipping, such as the Bill of Lading, are turned into a smart contract on blockchain. Based...... on our insights from the project, we provide first evidence for preliminary design principles for applications that aim to mitigate the transactional risk and uncertainty in decentralized environments using blockchain. Both the artifact and the first evidence for emerging design principles are novel...

Quantum time uncertainty in a gravity's rainbow formalism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Galan, Pablo; Marugan, Guillermo A. Mena

2004-01-01

The existence of a minimum time uncertainty is usually argued to be a consequence of the combination of quantum mechanics and general relativity. Most of the studies that point to this result are nonetheless based on perturbative quantization approaches, in which the effect of matter on the geometry is regarded as a correction to a classical background. In this paper, we consider rainbow spacetimes constructed from doubly special relativity by using a modification of the proposals of Magueijo and Smolin. In these models, gravitational effects are incorporated (at least to a certain extent) in the definition of the energy-momentum of particles without adhering to a perturbative treatment of the backreaction. In this context, we derive and compare the expressions of the time uncertainty in quantizations that use as evolution parameter either the background or the rainbow time coordinates. These two possibilities can be regarded as corresponding to perturbative and nonperturbative quantization schemes, respectively. We show that, while a nonvanishing time uncertainty is generically unavoidable in a perturbative framework, an infinite time resolution can in fact be achieved in a nonperturbative quantization for the whole family of doubly special relativity theories with unbounded physical energy

Generalized Uncertainty Principle and Black Hole Entropy of Higher-Dimensional de Sitter Spacetime

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhao Haixia; Hu Shuangqi; Zhao Ren; Li Huaifan

2007-01-01

Recently, there has been much attention devoted to resolving the quantum corrections to the Bekenstein-Hawking black hole entropy. In particular, many researchers have expressed a vested interest in the coefficient of the logarithmic term of the black hole entropy correction term. In this paper, we calculate the correction value of the black hole entropy by utilizing the generalized uncertainty principle and obtain the correction term caused by the generalized uncertainty principle. Because in our calculation we think that the Bekenstein-Hawking area theorem is still valid after considering the generalized uncertainty principle, we derive that the coefficient of the logarithmic term of the black hole entropy correction term is positive. This result is different from the known result at present. Our method is valid not only for four-dimensional spacetimes but also for higher-dimensional spacetimes. In the whole process, the physics idea is clear and calculation is simple. It offers a new way for studying the entropy correction of the complicated spacetime.

Conditional uncertainty principle

Science.gov (United States)

Gour, Gilad; Grudka, Andrzej; Horodecki, Michał; Kłobus, Waldemar; Łodyga, Justyna; Narasimhachar, Varun

2018-04-01

We develop a general operational framework that formalizes the concept of conditional uncertainty in a measure-independent fashion. Our formalism is built upon a mathematical relation which we call conditional majorization. We define conditional majorization and, for the case of classical memory, we provide its thorough characterization in terms of monotones, i.e., functions that preserve the partial order under conditional majorization. We demonstrate the application of this framework by deriving two types of memory-assisted uncertainty relations, (1) a monotone-based conditional uncertainty relation and (2) a universal measure-independent conditional uncertainty relation, both of which set a lower bound on the minimal uncertainty that Bob has about Alice's pair of incompatible measurements, conditioned on arbitrary measurement that Bob makes on his own system. We next compare the obtained relations with their existing entropic counterparts and find that they are at least independent.

Verification of the uncertainty principle by using diffraction of light waves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nikolic, D; Nesic, Lj

2011-01-01

We described a simple idea for experimental verification of the uncertainty principle for light waves. We used a single-slit diffraction of a laser beam for measuring the angular width of zero-order diffraction maximum and obtained the corresponding wave number uncertainty. We will assume that the uncertainty in position is the slit width. For the acquisition of the experimental data and their further analysis, we used a computer. Because of its simplicity this experiment is very suitable for demonstration, as well as for a quantitative exercise at universities and final year of high school studies.

Uncertainty analysis of energy consumption in dwellings

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pettersen, Trine Dyrstad

1997-12-31

This thesis presents a comprehensive study of an energy estimation model that can be used to examine the uncertainty of predicted energy consumption in a dwelling. The variation and uncertainty of input parameters due to the outdoor climate, the building construction and the inhabitants are studied as a basis for further energy evaluations. The occurring variations of energy consumption in nominal similar dwellings are also investigated due to verification of the simulated energy consumption. The main topics are (1) a study of expected variations and uncertainties in both input parameters used in energy consumption calculations and the energy consumption in the dwelling, (2) the development and evaluation of a simplified energy calculation model that considers uncertainties due to the input parameters, (3) an evaluation of the influence of the uncertain parameters on the total variation so that the most important parameters can be identified, and (4) the recommendation of a simplified procedure for treating uncertainties or possible deviations from average conditions. 90 refs., 182 figs., 73 tabs.

Effect of Generalized Uncertainty Principle on Main-Sequence Stars and White Dwarfs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohamed Moussa

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This paper addresses the effect of generalized uncertainty principle, emerged from different approaches of quantum gravity within Planck scale, on thermodynamic properties of photon, nonrelativistic ideal gases, and degenerate fermions. A modification in pressure, particle number, and energy density are calculated. Astrophysical objects such as main-sequence stars and white dwarfs are examined and discussed as an application. A modification in Lane-Emden equation due to a change in a polytropic relation caused by the presence of quantum gravity is investigated. The applicable range of quantum gravity parameters is estimated. The bounds in the perturbed parameters are relatively large but they may be considered reasonable values in the astrophysical regime.

Uncertainty Quantification in Alchemical Free Energy Methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Bhati, Agastya P; Wan, Shunzhou; Hu, Yuan; Sherborne, Brad; Coveney, Peter V

2018-05-02

Alchemical free energy methods have gained much importance recently from several reports of improved ligand-protein binding affinity predictions based on their implementation using molecular dynamics simulations. A large number of variants of such methods implementing different accelerated sampling techniques and free energy estimators are available, each claimed to be better than the others in its own way. However, the key features of reproducibility and quantification of associated uncertainties in such methods have barely been discussed. Here, we apply a systematic protocol for uncertainty quantification to a number of popular alchemical free energy methods, covering both absolute and relative free energy predictions. We show that a reliable measure of error estimation is provided by ensemble simulation-an ensemble of independent MD simulations-which applies irrespective of the free energy method. The need to use ensemble methods is fundamental and holds regardless of the duration of time of the molecular dynamics simulations performed.

Space-time uncertainty and approaches to D-brane field theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoneya, Tamiaki

2008-01-01

In connection with the space-time uncertainty principle which gives a simple qualitative characterization of non-local or non-commutative nature of short-distance space-time structure in string theory, the author's recent approaches toward field theories for D-branes are briefly outlined, putting emphasis on some key ideas lying in the background. The final section of the present report is devoted partially to a tribute to Yukawa on the occasion of the centennial of his birth. (author)

On the principled assignment of probabilities for uncertainty analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Unwin, S.D.; Cook, I.

1986-01-01

The authors sympathize with those who raise the questions of inscrutability and over-precision in connection with probabilistic techniques as currently implemented in nuclear PRA. This inscrutability also renders the probabilistic approach, as practiced, open to abuse. They believe that the appropriate remedy is not the discarding of the probabilistic representation of uncertainty in favour of a more simply structured, but logically inconsistent approach such as that of bounding analysis. This would be like forbidding the use of arithmetic in order to prevent the issuing of fraudulent company prospectuses. The remedy, in this analogy, is the enforcement of accounting standards for the valuation of inventory, rates of depreciation etc. They require an analogue of such standards in the PRA domain. What is needed is not the interdiction of probabilistic judgment, but the interdiction of private, inscrutable judgment. Some principles may be conventional in character, as are certain accounting principles. They expound a set of controlling principles which they suggest should govern the formulation of probabilities in nuclear risk analysis. A fuller derivation and consideration of these principles can be found

The action uncertainty principle for continuous measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Mensky, Michael B.

1996-02-01

The action uncertainty principle (AUP) for the specification of the most probable readouts of continuous quantum measurements is proved, formulated in different forms and analyzed (for nonlinear as well as linear systems). Continuous monitoring of an observable A(p,q,t) with resolution Δa( t) is considered. The influence of the measurement process on the evolution of the measured system (quantum measurement noise) is presented by an additional term δ F(t)A(p,q,t) in the Hamiltonian where the function δ F (generalized fictitious force) is restricted by the AUP ∫|δ F(t)| Δa( t) d t ≲ and arbitrary otherwise. Quantum-nondemolition (QND) measurements are analyzed with the help of the AUP. A simple uncertainty relation for continuous quantum measurements is derived. It states that the area of a certain band in the phase space should be of the order of. The width of the band depends on the measurement resolution while its length is determined by the deviation of the system, due to the measurement, from classical behavior.

The action uncertainty principle for continuous measurements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mensky, M.B.

1996-01-01

The action uncertainty principle (AUP) for the specification of the most probable readouts of continuous quantum measurements is proved, formulated in different forms and analyzed (for nonlinear as well as linear systems). Continuous monitoring of an observable A(p,q,t) with resolution Δa(t) is considered. The influence of the measurement process on the evolution of the measured system (quantum measurement noise) is presented by an additional term δF(t) A(p,q,t) in the Hamiltonian where the function δF (generalized fictitious force) is restricted by the AUP ∫ vertical stroke δF(t) vertical stroke Δa(t)d t< or∼ℎ and arbitrary otherwise. Quantum-nondemolition (QND) measurements are analyzed with the help of the AUP. A simple uncertainty relation for continuous quantum measurements is derived. It states that the area of a certain band in the phase space should be of the order of ℎ. The width of the band depends on the measurement resolution while its length is determined by the deviation of the system, due to the measurement, from classical behavior. (orig.)

Jet Energy Scale Uncertainties in ATLAS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barillari, Teresa

2012-01-01

The first proton-proton collisions at a centre of mass energy of √s = 7TeV have been used by the ATLAS experiment to achieve an accuracy of the jet energy measurement between 2% and 4% for jets transverse momenta between 20 GeV and 2TeV and in the absolute pseudorapidity range up to 4.5. The jet energy scale uncertainty is derived from measurements in situ of the calorimeter single response to hadrons together with systematic variations in the Monte Carlo simulation. The transverse momentum balance between a central and a forward jet in events with two high transverse momenta jets is used to set the jet energy uncertainty in the forward region. The obtained uncertainty is confirmed by in-situ measurements. Jets in the TeV energy range have been tested using a system of well calibrated jets at low transverse momenta against high transverse momenta jets. A further reduction of the jet energy scale uncertainty between 1% and 2% for jets transverse momenta above 30 GeV has been achieved using data from the 2011 run based on an integrated luminosity of 5 fb −1 .

The Precautionary Principle and statistical approaches to uncertainty

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Keiding, Niels; Budtz-Jørgensen, Esben

2004-01-01

is unhelpful, because lack of significance can be due either to uninformative data or to genuine lack of effect (the Type II error problem). Its inversion, bioequivalence testing, might sometimes be a model for the Precautionary Principle in its ability to "prove the null hypothesis". Current procedures...... for setting safe exposure levels are essentially derived from these classical statistical ideas, and we outline how uncertainties in the exposure and response measurements affect the no observed adverse effect level, the Benchmark approach and the "Hockey Stick" model. A particular problem concerns model...

Principles of the Energy Conservation Bill

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zeman, J.

1995-01-01

The paper describes 21 principles of the draft Energy Conservation Bill. The principles lay down fundamental responsibilities of the government, the municipalities, business entities, citizens and power plants in the field of economical energy management. Included are principles to minimize energy consumption and to stimulate a reasonable energy management, the role of the energy distribution network, responsibilities of the central load dispatching center, and power plant output regulation schemes. (J.B.)

Time-Varying Uncertainty in Shock and Vibration Applications Using the Impulse Response

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J.B. Weathers

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Design of mechanical systems often necessitates the use of dynamic simulations to calculate the displacements (and their derivatives of the bodies in a system as a function of time in response to dynamic inputs. These types of simulations are especially prevalent in the shock and vibration community where simulations associated with models having complex inputs are routine. If the forcing functions as well as the parameters used in these simulations are subject to uncertainties, then these uncertainties will propagate through the models resulting in uncertainties in the outputs of interest. The uncertainty analysis procedure for these kinds of time-varying problems can be challenging, and in many instances, explicit data reduction equations (DRE's, i.e., analytical formulas, are not available because the outputs of interest are obtained from complex simulation software, e.g. FEA programs. Moreover, uncertainty propagation in systems modeled using nonlinear differential equations can prove to be difficult to analyze. However, if (1 the uncertainties propagate through the models in a linear manner, obeying the principle of superposition, then the complexity of the problem can be significantly simplified. If in addition, (2 the uncertainty in the model parameters do not change during the simulation and the manner in which the outputs of interest respond to small perturbations in the external input forces is not dependent on when the perturbations are applied, then the number of calculations required can be greatly reduced. Conditions (1 and (2 characterize a Linear Time Invariant (LTI uncertainty model. This paper seeks to explain one possible approach to obtain the uncertainty results based on these assumptions.

Uncertainty and stress: Why it causes diseases and how it is mastered by the brain.

Science.gov (United States)

Peters, Achim; McEwen, Bruce S; Friston, Karl

2017-09-01

The term 'stress' - coined in 1936 - has many definitions, but until now has lacked a theoretical foundation. Here we present an information-theoretic approach - based on the 'free energy principle' - defining the essence of stress; namely, uncertainty. We address three questions: What is uncertainty? What does it do to us? What are our resources to master it? Mathematically speaking, uncertainty is entropy or 'expected surprise'. The 'free energy principle' rests upon the fact that self-organizing biological agents resist a tendency to disorder and must therefore minimize the entropy of their sensory states. Applied to our everyday life, this means that we feel uncertain, when we anticipate that outcomes will turn out to be something other than expected - and that we are unable to avoid surprise. As all cognitive systems strive to reduce their uncertainty about future outcomes, they face a critical constraint: Reducing uncertainty requires cerebral energy. The characteristic of the vertebrate brain to prioritize its own high energy is captured by the notion of the 'selfish brain'. Accordingly, in times of uncertainty, the selfish brain demands extra energy from the body. If, despite all this, the brain cannot reduce uncertainty, a persistent cerebral energy crisis may develop, burdening the individual by 'allostatic load' that contributes to systemic and brain malfunction (impaired memory, atherogenesis, diabetes and subsequent cardio- and cerebrovascular events). Based on the basic tenet that stress originates from uncertainty, we discuss the strategies our brain uses to avoid surprise and thereby resolve uncertainty. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Uncertainty analysis for secondary energy distributions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gerstl, S.A.W.

1978-01-01

In many transport calculations the integral design parameter of interest (response) is determined mainly by secondary particles such as gamma rays from (n,γ) reactions or secondary neutrons from inelastic scattering events or (n,2n) reactions. Standard sensitivity analysis usually allows to calculate the sensitivities to the production cross sections of such secondaries, but an extended formalism is needed to also obtain the sensitivities to the energy distribution of the generated secondary particles. For a 30-group standard cross-section set 84% of all non-zero table positions pertain to the description of secondary energy distributions (SED's) and only 16% to the actual reaction cross sections. Therefore, any sensitivity/uncertainty analysis which does not consider the effects of SED's is incomplete and neglects most of the input data. This paper describes the methods of how sensitivity profiles for SED's are obtained and used to estimate the uncertainty of an integral response due to uncertainties in these SED's. The detailed theory is documented elsewhere and implemented in the LASL sensitivity code SENSIT. SED sensitivity profiles have proven particularly valuable in cross-section uncertainty analyses for fusion reactors. Even when the production cross sections for secondary neutrons were assumed to be without error, the uncertainties in the energy distribution of these secondaries produced appreciable uncertainties in the calculated tritium breeding rate. However, complete error files for SED's are presently nonexistent. Therefore, methods will be described that allow rough error estimates due to estimated SED uncertainties based on integral SED sensitivities

Jet Energy Scale Uncertainties in ATLAS

CERN Document Server

Barillari, T; The ATLAS collaboration

2012-01-01

About one year after the first proton-proton collisions at a centre of mass energy of $sqrt(s) = 7,TeV$, the ATLAS experiment has achieved an accuracy of the jet energy measurement between $2-4%$ for jet transverse momenta from $20,GeV$ to $2,TeV$ in the pseudorapidity range up to $4.5$. The jet energy scale uncertainty is derived from in-situ single hadron response measurement along with systematic variations in the Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, the transverse momentum balance between a central and a forward jet in events with only two jets at high transverse momentum is used to set the jet energy uncertainty in the forward region. The obtained uncertainty is confirmed by in-situ measurements exploiting the transverse momentum balance between a jet and a well measured reference object like the photon transverse momentum in photon-jet events. Jets in the TeV-energy regime were tested using a system of well calibrated jets at low transverse momenta against a high-pt jet. Preliminary results from the 201...

Cosmic rays and tests of fundamental principles

Science.gov (United States)

Gonzalez-Mestres, Luis

2011-03-01

It is now widely acknowledged that cosmic rays experiments can test possible new physics directly generated at the Planck scale or at some other fundamental scale. By studying particle properties at energies far beyond the reach of any man-made accelerator, they can yield unique checks of basic principles. A well-known example is provided by possible tests of special relativity at the highest cosmic-ray energies. But other essential ingredients of standard theories can in principle be tested: quantum mechanics, uncertainty principle, energy and momentum conservation, effective space-time dimensions, hamiltonian and lagrangian formalisms, postulates of cosmology, vacuum dynamics and particle propagation, quark and gluon confinement, elementariness of particles…Standard particle physics or string-like patterns may have a composite origin able to manifest itself through specific cosmic-ray signatures. Ultra-high energy cosmic rays, but also cosmic rays at lower energies, are probes of both "conventional" and new Physics. Status, prospects, new ideas, and open questions in the field are discussed.

Cosmic rays and tests of fundamental principles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gonzalez-Mestres, Luis

2011-01-01

It is now widely acknowledged that cosmic rays experiments can test possible new physics directly generated at the Planck scale or at some other fundamental scale. By studying particle properties at energies far beyond the reach of any man-made accelerator, they can yield unique checks of basic principles. A well-known example is provided by possible tests of special relativity at the highest cosmic-ray energies. But other essential ingredients of standard theories can in principle be tested: quantum mechanics, uncertainty principle, energy and momentum conservation, effective space-time dimensions, hamiltonian and lagrangian formalisms, postulates of cosmology, vacuum dynamics and particle propagation, quark and gluon confinement, elementariness of particles... Standard particle physics or string-like patterns may have a composite origin able to manifest itself through specific cosmic-ray signatures. Ultra-high energy cosmic rays, but also cosmic rays at lower energies, are probes of both 'conventional' and new Physics. Status, prospects, new ideas, and open questions in the field are discussed.

Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for functionals of the time-dependent nuclide density field

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Williams, M.L.; Weisbin, C.R.

1978-04-01

An approach to extend the present ORNL sensitivity program to include functionals of the time-dependent nuclide density field is developed. An adjoint equation for the nuclide field was derived previously by using generalized perturbation theory; the present derivation makes use of a variational principle and results in the same equation. The physical significance of this equation is discussed and compared to that of the time-dependent neutron adjoint equation. Computational requirements for determining sensitivity profiles and uncertainties for functionals of the time-dependent nuclide density vector are developed within the framework of the existing FORSS system; in this way the current capability is significantly extended. The development, testing, and use of an adjoint version of the ORIGEN isotope generation and depletion code are documented. Finally, a sample calculation is given which estimates the uncertainty in the plutonium inventory at shutdown of a PWR due to assumed uncertainties in uranium and plutonium cross sections. 8 figures, 4 tables

Generalized uncertainty principle, quantum gravity and Horava-Lifshitz gravity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Myung, Yun Soo

2009-01-01

We investigate a close connection between generalized uncertainty principle (GUP) and deformed Horava-Lifshitz (HL) gravity. The GUP commutation relations correspond to the UV-quantum theory, while the canonical commutation relations represent the IR-quantum theory. Inspired by this UV/IR quantum mechanics, we obtain the GUP-corrected graviton propagator by introducing UV-momentum p i =p 0i (1+βp 0 2 ) and compare this with tensor propagators in the HL gravity. Two are the same up to p 0 4 -order.

Guiding principles for energy policy in Schleswig-Holstein

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1982-01-01

The principles of energy policy in Schleswig-Holstein set forward in this brochure are neither an energy programme nor a descriptive report on the policy of the day. Rather, they are intended to mark the energy-political frame of action within which the government of the Land will more. At the same time their purpose is to provide a medium-term orientation for politics and the power economy, consumers and producers. They are thus consciously made to contrast with political trends conceiving energy policy first of all as a plan-dependent activity. With these guiding principles the government of the Land consistantly continues an energy policy it has exposed in detail in its answer to the Question submitted by the CDU parliamentary party on December 8, 1980. (orig./UA) [de

Unconditional security of quantum key distribution and the uncertainty principle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koashi, Masato

2006-01-01

An approach to the unconditional security of quantum key distribution protocols is presented, which is based on the uncertainty principle. The approach applies to every case that has been treated via the argument by Shor and Preskill, but it is not necessary to find quantum error correcting codes. It can also treat the cases with uncharacterized apparatuses. The proof can be applied to cases where the secret key rate is larger than the distillable entanglement

The validity of the extended energy principle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chance, M.S.; Johnson, J.L.; Kulsrud, R.M.

1994-04-01

A recent analysis of plasma stability based on modifications of the extended energy principle for magnetohydrodynamic stability led to conclusions that are too optimistic. The original interpretation of this principle is indeed applicable. The present analysis demonstrates explicitly the fallacy of using the wrong functional for δW in the extended energy principle. It then shows that the original energy principle functional δW B is also obtained for a model in which a surface mass is incorporated to provide pressure balance. This work therefore indicates, but does not prove, that the eigenfunctions that are obtained from a minimization of the extended energy principle with the proper kinetic energy norm provide a good representation of what would be achieved with an exact treatment

Uncertainty in the learning rates of energy technologies. An experiment in a global multi-regional energy system model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rout, Ullash K.; Blesl, Markus; Fahl, Ulrich; Remme, Uwe; Voss, Alfred

2009-01-01

The diffusion of promising energy technologies in the market depends on their future energy production-cost development. When analyzing these technologies in an integrated assessment model using endogenous technological learning, the uncertainty in the assumed learning rates (LRs) plays a crucial role in the production-cost development and model outcomes. This study examines the uncertainty in LRs of some energy technologies under endogenous global learning implementation and presents a floor-cost modeling procedure to systematically regulate the uncertainty in LRs of energy technologies. The article narrates the difficulties of data assimilation, as compatible with mixed integer programming segmentations, and comprehensively presents the causes of uncertainty in LRs. This work is executed using a multi-regional and long-horizon energy system model based on 'TIMES' framework. All regions receive an economic advantage to learn in a common domain, and resource-ample regions obtain a marginal advantage for better exploitation of the learning technologies, due to a lower supply-side fuel-cost development. The lowest learning investment associated with the maximum LR mobilizes more deployment of the learning technologies. The uncertainty in LRs has an impact on the diffusion of energy technologies tested, and therefore this study scrutinizes the role of policy support for some of the technologies investigated. (author)

Uncertainties in constraining low-energy constants from {sup 3}H β decay

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Klos, P.; Carbone, A.; Hebeler, K. [Technische Universitaet Darmstadt, Institut fuer Kernphysik, Darmstadt (Germany); GSI Helmholtzzentrum fuer Schwerionenforschung GmbH, ExtreMe Matter Institute EMMI, Darmstadt (Germany); Menendez, J. [University of Tokyo, Department of Physics, Tokyo (Japan); Schwenk, A. [Technische Universitaet Darmstadt, Institut fuer Kernphysik, Darmstadt (Germany); GSI Helmholtzzentrum fuer Schwerionenforschung GmbH, ExtreMe Matter Institute EMMI, Darmstadt (Germany); Max-Planck-Institut fuer Kernphysik, Heidelberg (Germany)

2017-08-15

We discuss the uncertainties in constraining low-energy constants of chiral effective field theory from {sup 3}H β decay. The half-life is very precisely known, so that the Gamow-Teller matrix element has been used to fit the coupling c{sub D} of the axial-vector current to a short-range two-nucleon pair. Because the same coupling also describes the leading one-pion-exchange three-nucleon force, this in principle provides a very constraining fit, uncorrelated with the {sup 3}H binding energy fit used to constrain another low-energy coupling in three-nucleon forces. However, so far such {sup 3}H half-life fits have only been performed at a fixed cutoff value. We show that the cutoff dependence due to the regulators in the axial-vector two-body current can significantly affect the Gamow-Teller matrix elements and consequently also the extracted values for the c{sub D} coupling constant. The degree of the cutoff dependence is correlated with the softness of the employed NN interaction. As a result, present three-nucleon forces based on a fit to {sup 3}H β decay underestimate the uncertainty in c{sub D}. We explore a range of c{sub D} values that is compatible within cutoff variation with the experimental {sup 3}H half-life and estimate the resulting uncertainties for many-body systems by performing calculations of symmetric nuclear matter. (orig.)

A Simplified Proof of Uncertainty Principle for Quaternion Linear Canonical Transform

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mawardi Bahri

2016-01-01

Full Text Available We provide a short and simple proof of an uncertainty principle associated with the quaternion linear canonical transform (QLCT by considering the fundamental relationship between the QLCT and the quaternion Fourier transform (QFT. We show how this relation allows us to derive the inverse transform and Parseval and Plancherel formulas associated with the QLCT. Some other properties of the QLCT are also studied.

Cosmological implications of Heisenberg's principle

CERN Document Server

Gonzalo, Julio A

2015-01-01

The aim of this book is to analyze the all important implications of Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle for a finite universe with very large mass-energy content such as ours. The earlier and main contributors to the formulation of Quantum Mechanics are briefly reviewed regarding the formulation of Heisenberg's Principle. After discussing “indeterminacy” versus ”uncertainty”, the universal constants of physics are reviewed and Planck's units are given. Next, a novel set of units, Heisenberg–Lemaitre units, are defined in terms of the large finite mass of the universe. With the help of Heisenberg's principle, the time evolution of the finite zero-point energy for the universe is investigated quantitatively. Next, taking advantage of the rigorous solutions of Einstein's cosmological equation for a flat, open and mixed universe of finite mass, the most recent and accurate data on the “age” (to) and the expansion rate (Ho) of the universe and their implications are reconsidered.

Vacuum thermalization of high intensity laser beams and the uncertainty principle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gupta, R.P.; Bhakar, B.S.; Panarella, E.

1983-01-01

This chapter phenomenologically calculates the cross section for photon-photon scattering in high intensity laser beams. The consequence of the Heisenberg uncertainty principle must be taken account in any photon-photon scattering calculation when many photons are present within the uncertainty volume. An exact determination of the number of scattering centers present in the scattering region is precluded when high intensity laser beams are involved in the scattering. Predictions are presented which suggest an upper limit to which the coherent photon densities can be increased either during amplification or focusing before scattering becomes predominant. The results of multiphoton ionization of gases, and laser induced CTR plasmas of the future, may be significantly affected due to the enhancement of the photon scattering investigated

Principles and applications of measurement and uncertainty analysis in research and calibration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wells, C.V.

1992-11-01

Interest in Measurement Uncertainty Analysis has grown in the past several years as it has spread to new fields of application, and research and development of uncertainty methodologies have continued. This paper discusses the subject from the perspectives of both research and calibration environments. It presents a history of the development and an overview of the principles of uncertainty analysis embodied in the United States National Standard, ANSI/ASME PTC 19.1-1985, Measurement Uncertainty. Examples are presented in which uncertainty analysis was utilized or is needed to gain further knowledge of a particular measurement process and to characterize final results. Measurement uncertainty analysis provides a quantitative estimate of the interval about a measured value or an experiment result within which the true value of that quantity is expected to lie. Years ago, Harry Ku of the United States National Bureau of Standards stated that ``The informational content of the statement of uncertainty determines, to a large extent, the worth of the calibrated value.`` Today, that statement is just as true about calibration or research results as it was in 1968. Why is that true? What kind of information should we include in a statement of uncertainty accompanying a calibrated value? How and where do we get the information to include in an uncertainty statement? How should we interpret and use measurement uncertainty information? This discussion will provide answers to these and other questions about uncertainty in research and in calibration. The methodology to be described has been developed by national and international groups over the past nearly thirty years, and individuals were publishing information even earlier. Yet the work is largely unknown in many science and engineering arenas. I will illustrate various aspects of uncertainty analysis with some examples drawn from the radiometry measurement and calibration discipline from research activities.

Principles and applications of measurement and uncertainty analysis in research and calibration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wells, C.V.

1992-11-01

Interest in Measurement Uncertainty Analysis has grown in the past several years as it has spread to new fields of application, and research and development of uncertainty methodologies have continued. This paper discusses the subject from the perspectives of both research and calibration environments. It presents a history of the development and an overview of the principles of uncertainty analysis embodied in the United States National Standard, ANSI/ASME PTC 19.1-1985, Measurement Uncertainty. Examples are presented in which uncertainty analysis was utilized or is needed to gain further knowledge of a particular measurement process and to characterize final results. Measurement uncertainty analysis provides a quantitative estimate of the interval about a measured value or an experiment result within which the true value of that quantity is expected to lie. Years ago, Harry Ku of the United States National Bureau of Standards stated that The informational content of the statement of uncertainty determines, to a large extent, the worth of the calibrated value.'' Today, that statement is just as true about calibration or research results as it was in 1968. Why is that true What kind of information should we include in a statement of uncertainty accompanying a calibrated value How and where do we get the information to include in an uncertainty statement How should we interpret and use measurement uncertainty information This discussion will provide answers to these and other questions about uncertainty in research and in calibration. The methodology to be described has been developed by national and international groups over the past nearly thirty years, and individuals were publishing information even earlier. Yet the work is largely unknown in many science and engineering arenas. I will illustrate various aspects of uncertainty analysis with some examples drawn from the radiometry measurement and calibration discipline from research activities.

Quantifying uncertainties in wind energy assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Patlakas, Platon; Galanis, George; Kallos, George

2015-04-01

The constant rise of wind energy production and the subsequent penetration in global energy markets during the last decades resulted in new sites selection with various types of problems. Such problems arise due to the variability and the uncertainty of wind speed. The study of the wind speed distribution lower and upper tail may support the quantification of these uncertainties. Such approaches focused on extreme wind conditions or periods below the energy production threshold are necessary for a better management of operations. Towards this direction, different methodologies are presented for the credible evaluation of potential non-frequent/extreme values for these environmental conditions. The approaches used, take into consideration the structural design of the wind turbines according to their lifespan, the turbine failures, the time needed for repairing as well as the energy production distribution. In this work, a multi-parametric approach for studying extreme wind speed values will be discussed based on tools of Extreme Value Theory. In particular, the study is focused on extreme wind speed return periods and the persistence of no energy production based on a weather modeling system/hind cast/10-year dataset. More specifically, two methods (Annual Maxima and Peaks Over Threshold) were used for the estimation of extreme wind speeds and their recurrence intervals. Additionally, two different methodologies (intensity given duration and duration given intensity, both based on Annual Maxima method) were implied to calculate the extreme events duration, combined with their intensity as well as the event frequency. The obtained results prove that the proposed approaches converge, at least on the main findings, for each case. It is also remarkable that, despite the moderate wind speed climate of the area, several consequent days of no energy production are observed.

Energy principles for linear dissipative systems with application to resistive MHD stability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pletzer, A.

1997-04-01

A formalism for the construction of energy principles for dissipative systems is presented. It is shown that dissipative systems satisfy a conservation law for the bilinear Hamiltonian provided the Lagrangian is time invariant. The energy on the other hand, differs from the Hamiltonian by being quadratic and by having a negative definite time derivative (positive power dissipation). The energy is a Lyapunov functional whose definiteness yields necessary and sufficient stability criteria. The stability problem of resistive magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) is addressed: the energy principle for ideal MHD is generalized and the stability criterion by Tasso is shown to be necessary in addition to sufficient for real growth rates. An energy principle is found for the inner layer equations that yields the resistive stability criterion D R <0 in the incompressible limit, whereas the tearing mode criterion Δ'<0 is shown to result from the conservation law of the bilinear concomitant in the resistive layer. (author) 1 fig., 25 refs

Generalized uncertainty principle and the maximum mass of ideal white dwarfs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rashidi, Reza, E-mail: reza.rashidi@srttu.edu

2016-11-15

The effects of a generalized uncertainty principle on the structure of an ideal white dwarf star is investigated. The equation describing the equilibrium configuration of the star is a generalized form of the Lane–Emden equation. It is proved that the star always has a finite size. It is then argued that the maximum mass of such an ideal white dwarf tends to infinity, as opposed to the conventional case where it has a finite value.

Uncertainties in scaling factors for ab initio vibrational zero-point energies

Science.gov (United States)

Irikura, Karl K.; Johnson, Russell D.; Kacker, Raghu N.; Kessel, Rüdiger

2009-03-01

Vibrational zero-point energies (ZPEs) determined from ab initio calculations are often scaled by empirical factors. An empirical scaling factor partially compensates for the effects arising from vibrational anharmonicity and incomplete treatment of electron correlation. These effects are not random but are systematic. We report scaling factors for 32 combinations of theory and basis set, intended for predicting ZPEs from computed harmonic frequencies. An empirical scaling factor carries uncertainty. We quantify and report, for the first time, the uncertainties associated with scaling factors for ZPE. The uncertainties are larger than generally acknowledged; the scaling factors have only two significant digits. For example, the scaling factor for B3LYP/6-31G(d) is 0.9757±0.0224 (standard uncertainty). The uncertainties in the scaling factors lead to corresponding uncertainties in predicted ZPEs. The proposed method for quantifying the uncertainties associated with scaling factors is based upon the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement, published by the International Organization for Standardization. We also present a new reference set of 60 diatomic and 15 polyatomic "experimental" ZPEs that includes estimated uncertainties.

Lorentz violation and generalized uncertainty principle

Science.gov (United States)

Lambiase, Gaetano; Scardigli, Fabio

2018-04-01

Investigations on possible violation of Lorentz invariance have been widely pursued in the last decades, both from theoretical and experimental sides. A comprehensive framework to formulate the problem is the standard model extension (SME) proposed by A. Kostelecky, where violation of Lorentz invariance is encoded into specific coefficients. Here we present a procedure to link the deformation parameter β of the generalized uncertainty principle to the SME coefficients of the gravity sector. The idea is to compute the Hawking temperature of a black hole in two different ways. The first way involves the deformation parameter β , and therefore we get a deformed Hawking temperature containing the parameter β . The second way involves a deformed Schwarzschild metric containing the Lorentz violating terms s¯μ ν of the gravity sector of the SME. The comparison between the two different techniques yields a relation between β and s¯μ ν. In this way bounds on β transferred from s¯μ ν are improved by many orders of magnitude when compared with those derived in other gravitational frameworks. Also the opposite possibility of bounds transferred from β to s¯μ ν is briefly discussed.

Risk analysis under uncertainty, the precautionary principle, and the new EU chemicals strategy.

Science.gov (United States)

Rogers, Michael D

2003-06-01

Three categories of uncertainty in relation to risk assessment are defined; uncertainty in effect, uncertainty in cause, and uncertainty in the relationship between a hypothesised cause and effect. The Precautionary Principle (PP) relates to the third type of uncertainty. Three broad descriptions of the PP are set out, uncertainty justifies action, uncertainty requires action, and uncertainty requires a reversal of the burden of proof for risk assessments. The application of the PP is controversial but what matters in practise is the precautionary action (PA) that follows. The criteria by which the PAs should be judged are detailed. This framework for risk assessment and management under uncertainty is then applied to the envisaged European system for the regulation of chemicals. A new EU regulatory system has been proposed which shifts the burden of proof concerning risk assessments from the regulator to the producer, and embodies the PP in all three of its main regulatory stages. The proposals are critically discussed in relation to three chemicals, namely, atrazine (an endocrine disrupter), cadmium (toxic and possibly carcinogenic), and hydrogen fluoride (a toxic, high-production-volume chemical). Reversing the burden of proof will speed up the regulatory process but the examples demonstrate that applying the PP appropriately, and balancing the countervailing risks and the socio-economic benefits, will continue to be a difficult task for the regulator. The paper concludes with a discussion of the role of precaution in the management of change and of the importance of trust in the effective regulation of uncertain risks.

Completeness, special functions and uncertainty principles over q-linear grids

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abreu, LuIs Daniel

2006-01-01

We derive completeness criteria for sequences of functions of the form f(xλ n ), where λ n is the nth zero of a suitably chosen entire function. Using these criteria, we construct complete nonorthogonal systems of Fourier-Bessel functions and their q-analogues, as well as other complete sets of q-special functions. We discuss connections with uncertainty principles over q-linear grids and the completeness of certain sets of q-Bessel functions is used to prove that, if a function f and its q-Hankel transform both vanish at the points {q -n } ∞ n=1 , 0 n } ∞ n=-∞

On the connection between complementarity and uncertainty principles in the Mach–Zehnder interferometric setting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bosyk, G M; Portesi, M; Holik, F; Plastino, A

2013-01-01

We revisit the connection between the complementarity and uncertainty principles of quantum mechanics within the framework of Mach–Zehnder interferometry. We focus our attention on the trade-off relation between complementary path information and fringe visibility. This relation is equivalent to the uncertainty relation of Schrödinger and Robertson for a suitably chosen pair of observables. We show that it is equivalent as well to the uncertainty inequality provided by Landau and Pollak. We also study the relationship of this trade-off relation with a family of entropic uncertainty relations based on Rényi entropies. There is no equivalence in this case, but the different values of the entropic parameter do define regimes that provides us with a tool to discriminate between non-trivial states of minimum uncertainty. The existence of such regimes agrees with previous results of Luis (2011 Phys. Rev. A 84 034101), although their meaning was not sufficiently clear. We discuss the origin of these regimes with the intention of gaining a deeper understanding of entropic measures. (paper)

Evaluation of risk impact of changes to Completion Times addressing model and parameter uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martorell, S.; Martón, I.; Villamizar, M.; Sánchez, A.I.; Carlos, S.

2014-01-01

This paper presents an approach and an example of application for the evaluation of risk impact of changes to Completion Times within the License Basis of a Nuclear Power Plant based on the use of the Probabilistic Risk Assessment addressing identification, treatment and analysis of uncertainties in an integrated manner. It allows full development of a three tired approach (Tier 1–3) following the principles of the risk-informed decision-making accounting for uncertainties as proposed by many regulators. Completion Time is the maximum outage time a safety related equipment is allowed to be down, e.g. for corrective maintenance, which is established within the Limiting Conditions for Operation included into Technical Specifications for operation of a Nuclear Power Plant. The case study focuses on a Completion Time change of the Accumulators System of a Nuclear Power Plant using a level 1 PRA. It focuses on several sources of model and parameter uncertainties. The results obtained show the risk impact of the proposed CT change including both types of epistemic uncertainties is small as compared with current safety goals of concern to Tier 1. However, what concerns to Tier 2 and 3, the results obtained show how the use of some traditional and uncertainty importance measures helps in identifying high risky configurations that should be avoided in NPP technical specifications no matter the duration of CT (Tier 2), and other configurations that could take part of a configuration risk management program (Tier 3). - Highlights: • New approach for evaluation of risk impact of changes to Completion Times. • Integrated treatment and analysis of model and parameter uncertainties. • PSA based application to support risk-informed decision-making. • Measures of importance for identification of risky configurations. • Management of important safety issues to accomplish safety goals

Energy Literacy : Essential Principles and Fundamental Concepts for Energy Education

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None

2017-03-01

Energy Literacy: Essential Principles and Fundamental Concepts for Energy Education presents energy concepts that, if understood and applied, will help individuals and communities make informed energy decisions.

Energy Literacy : Essential Principles and Fundamental Concepts for Energy Education

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None

2015-08-01

Energy Literacy: Essential Principles and Fundamental Concepts for Energy Education presents energy concepts that, if understood and applied, will help individuals and communities make informed energy decisions.

Energy principle with included boundary conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lehnert, B.

1994-01-01

Earlier comments by the author on the limitations of the classical form of the extended energy principle are supported by a complementary analysis on the potential energy change arising from free-boundary displacements of a magnetically confined plasma. In the final formulation of the extended principle, restricted displacements, satisfying pressure continuity by means of plasma volume currents in a thin boundary layer, are replaced by unrestricted (arbitrary) displacements which can give rise to induced surface currents. It is found that these currents contribute to the change in potential energy, and that their contribution is not taken into account by such a formulation. A general expression is further given for surface currents induced by arbitrary displacements. The expression is used to reformulate the energy principle for the class of displacements which satisfy all necessary boundary conditions, including that of the pressure balance. This makes a minimization procedure of the potential energy possible, for the class of all physically relevant test functions which include the constraints imposed by the boundary conditions. Such a procedure is also consistent with a corresponding variational calculus. (Author)

Energy management under policy and technology uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tylock, Steven M.; Seager, Thomas P.; Snell, Jeff; Bennett, Erin R.; Sweet, Don

2012-01-01

Energy managers in public agencies are subject to multiple and sometimes conflicting policy objectives regarding cost, environmental, and security concerns associated with alternative energy technologies. Making infrastructure investment decisions requires balancing different distributions of risks and benefits that are far from clear. For example, managers at permanent Army installations must incorporate Congressional legislative objectives, executive orders, Department of Defense directives, state laws and regulations, local restrictions, and multiple stakeholder concerns when undertaking new energy initiatives. Moreover, uncertainty with regard to alternative energy technologies is typically much greater than that associated with traditional technologies, both because the technologies themselves are continuously evolving and because the intermittent nature of many renewable technologies makes a certain level of uncertainty irreducible. This paper describes a novel stochastic multi-attribute analytic approach that allows users to explore different priorities or weighting schemes in combination with uncertainties related to technology performance. To illustrate the utility of this approach for understanding conflicting policy or stakeholder perspectives, prioritizing the need for more information, and making investment decisions, we apply this approach to an energy technology decision problem representative of a permanent military base. Highlights: ► Incorporate disparate criteria with uncertain performance. ► Analyze decisions with contrasting stakeholder positions. ► Interactively compare alternatives based on uncertain weighting. ► User friendly multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) tool.

Uncertainties for pressure-time efficiency measurements

OpenAIRE

Ramdal, Jørgen; Jonsson, Pontus; Dahlhaug, Ole Gunnar; Nielsen, Torbjørn; Cervantes, Michel

2010-01-01

 In connection with the pressure-time project at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology and Luleå University of Technology, a number of tests with the pressure-time method have been performed at the Waterpower Laboratory in Trondheim, Norway. The aim is to lower the uncertainty and improve usability of the method. Also a field test at the Anundsjoe power plant in Sweden has been performed. The pressure-time measurement is affected by random uncertainty. To minimize the effect of t...

Quantification of Uncertainty in Predicting Building Energy Consumption

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brohus, Henrik; Frier, Christian; Heiselberg, Per

2012-01-01

Traditional building energy consumption calculation methods are characterised by rough approaches providing approximate figures with high and unknown levels of uncertainty. Lack of reliable energy resources and increasing concerns about climate change call for improved predictive tools. A new...... approach for the prediction of building energy consumption is presented. The approach quantifies the uncertainty of building energy consumption by means of stochastic differential equations. The approach is applied to a general heat balance for an arbitrary number of loads and zones in a building...... for the dynamic thermal behaviour of buildings. However, for air flow and energy consumption it is found to be much more significant due to less “damping”. Probabilistic methods establish a new approach to the prediction of building energy consumption, enabling designers to include stochastic parameters like...

Energy conversion and management principles and applications

CERN Document Server

Petrecca, Giovanni

2014-01-01

This book provides an overall view of energy conversion and management in industry and in buildings by following the streams of energy from the site boundaries to the end users. Written for an audience of both practitioners and faculty/students, Energy Conversion and Management: Principles and Applications presents general principles of energy conversion and energy sources, both traditional and renewable, in a broad range of facilities such as electrical substations, boiler plants, heat and power plants, electrical networks, thermal fluid distributions lines and insulations, pumps and fans, ai

An Inconvenient Deliberation. The Precautionary Principle's Contribution to the Uncertainties Surrounding Climate Change Liability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haritz, M.M.

2011-01-01

There is increasing evidence to suggest that adaptation to the inevitable is as relevant to climate change policymaking as mitigation efforts. Both mitigation and adaptation, as well as the unavoidable damage occurring both now and that is predicted to occur, all involve costs at the expense of diverse climate change victims. The allocation of responsibilities - implicit in terms of the burden-sharing mechanisms that currently exist in public and private governance - demands recourse under liability law, especially as it has become clear that most companies will only start reducing emissions if verifiable costs of the economic consequences of climate change, including the likelihood of liability, outweigh the costs of taking precautionary measures. This vitally important book asks: Can the precautionary principle make uncertainty judiciable in the context of liability for the consequences of climate change, and, if so, to what extent? Drawing on the full range of pertinent existing literature and case law, the author examines the precautionary principle both in terms of its content and application and in the context of liability law. She analyses the indirect means offered by existing legislation being used by environmental groups and affected individuals before the courts to challenge both companies and regulators as responsible agents of climate change damage. In the process of responding to its fundamental question, the analysis explores such further questions as the following: (a) What is the role of the precautionary principle in resolving uncertainty in scientific risk assessment when faced with inconclusive evidence, and how does it affect decision-making, particularly in the regulatory choices concerning climate change? To this end, what is the concrete content of the precautionary principle?; (b) How does liability law generally handle scientific uncertainty? What different types of liability exist, and how are they equipped to handle a climate change

Variational energy principle for compressible, baroclinic flow. 2: Free-energy form of Hamilton's principle

Science.gov (United States)

Schmid, L. A.

1977-01-01

The first and second variations are calculated for the irreducible form of Hamilton's Principle that involves the minimum number of dependent variables necessary to describe the kinetmatics and thermodynamics of inviscid, compressible, baroclinic flow in a specified gravitational field. The form of the second variation shows that, in the neighborhood of a stationary point that corresponds to physically stable flow, the action integral is a complex saddle surface in parameter space. There exists a form of Hamilton's Principle for which a direct solution of a flow problem is possible. This second form is related to the first by a Friedrichs transformation of the thermodynamic variables. This introduces an extra dependent variable, but the first and second variations are shown to have direct physical significance, namely they are equal to the free energy of fluctuations about the equilibrium flow that satisfies the equations of motion. If this equilibrium flow is physically stable, and if a very weak second order integral constraint on the correlation between the fluctuations of otherwise independent variables is satisfied, then the second variation of the action integral for this free energy form of Hamilton's Principle is positive-definite, so the action integral is a minimum, and can serve as the basis for a direct trail and error solution. The second order integral constraint states that the unavailable energy must be maximum at equilibrium, i.e. the fluctuations must be so correlated as to produce a second order decrease in the total unavailable energy.

Optimal control, investment and utilization schemes for energy storage under uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Mirhosseini, Niloufar Sadat

Energy storage has the potential to offer new means for added flexibility on the electricity systems. This flexibility can be used in a number of ways, including adding value towards asset management, power quality and reliability, integration of renewable resources and energy bill savings for the end users. However, uncertainty about system states and volatility in system dynamics can complicate the question of when to invest in energy storage and how best to manage and utilize it. This work proposes models to address different problems associated with energy storage within a microgrid, including optimal control, investment, and utilization. Electric load, renewable resources output, storage technology cost and electricity day-ahead and spot prices are the factors that bring uncertainty to the problem. A number of analytical methodologies have been adopted to develop the aforementioned models. Model Predictive Control and discretized dynamic programming, along with a new decomposition algorithm are used to develop optimal control schemes for energy storage for two different levels of renewable penetration. Real option theory and Monte Carlo simulation, coupled with an optimal control approach, are used to obtain optimal incremental investment decisions, considering multiple sources of uncertainty. Two stage stochastic programming is used to develop a novel and holistic methodology, including utilization of energy storage within a microgrid, in order to optimally interact with energy market. Energy storage can contribute in terms of value generation and risk reduction for the microgrid. The integration of the models developed here are the basis for a framework which extends from long term investments in storage capacity to short term operational control (charge/discharge) of storage within a microgrid. In particular, the following practical goals are achieved: (i) optimal investment on storage capacity over time to maximize savings during normal and emergency

Uncertainty of Energy Consumption Assessment of Domestic Buildings

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brohus, Henrik; Heiselberg, Per; Simonsen, A.

2009-01-01

In order to assess the influence of energy reduction initiatives, to determine the expected annual cost, to calculate life cycle cost, emission impact, etc. it is crucial to be able to assess the energy consumption reasonably accurate. The present work undertakes a theoretical and empirical study...... of the uncertainty of energy consumption assessment of domestic buildings. The calculated energy consumption of a number of almost identical domestic buildings in Denmark is compared with the measured energy consumption. Furthermore, the uncertainty is determined by means of stochastic modelling based on input...... to correspond reasonably well; however, it is also found that significant differences may occur between calculated and measured energy consumption due to the spread and due to the fact that the result can only be determined with a certain probability. It is found that occupants' behaviour is the major...

Mapping and uncertainty analysis of energy and pitch angle phase space in the DIII-D fast ion loss detector

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pace, D. C., E-mail: pacedc@fusion.gat.com; Fisher, R. K.; Van Zeeland, M. A. [General Atomics, PO Box 85608, San Diego, California 92186-5608 (United States); Pipes, R. [Department of Physics, University of Hawaii, Hilo, Hawaii 96720-4091 (United States)

2014-11-15

New phase space mapping and uncertainty analysis of energetic ion loss data in the DIII-D tokamak provides experimental results that serve as valuable constraints in first-principles simulations of energetic ion transport. Beam ion losses are measured by the fast ion loss detector (FILD) diagnostic system consisting of two magnetic spectrometers placed independently along the outer wall. Monte Carlo simulations of mono-energetic and single-pitch ions reaching the FILDs are used to determine the expected uncertainty in the measurements. Modeling shows that the variation in gyrophase of 80 keV beam ions at the FILD aperture can produce an apparent measured energy signature spanning across 50-140 keV. These calculations compare favorably with experiments in which neutral beam prompt loss provides a well known energy and pitch distribution.

Mapping and uncertainty analysis of energy and pitch angle phase space in the DIII-D fast ion loss detector.

Science.gov (United States)

Pace, D C; Pipes, R; Fisher, R K; Van Zeeland, M A

2014-11-01

New phase space mapping and uncertainty analysis of energetic ion loss data in the DIII-D tokamak provides experimental results that serve as valuable constraints in first-principles simulations of energetic ion transport. Beam ion losses are measured by the fast ion loss detector (FILD) diagnostic system consisting of two magnetic spectrometers placed independently along the outer wall. Monte Carlo simulations of mono-energetic and single-pitch ions reaching the FILDs are used to determine the expected uncertainty in the measurements. Modeling shows that the variation in gyrophase of 80 keV beam ions at the FILD aperture can produce an apparent measured energy signature spanning across 50-140 keV. These calculations compare favorably with experiments in which neutral beam prompt loss provides a well known energy and pitch distribution.

Simple Activity Demonstrates Wind Energy Principles

Science.gov (United States)

Roman, Harry T.

2012-01-01

Wind energy is an exciting and clean energy option often described as the fastest-growing energy system on the planet. With some simple materials, teachers can easily demonstrate its key principles in their classroom. (Contains 1 figure and 2 tables.)

Measurement Issues for Energy Efficient Commercial Buildings: Productivity and Performance Uncertainties

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jones, D.W.

2002-05-16

buildings. Commercially available data bases exist that, if supplemented with engineering survey for equipment and materials use, could be analyzed statistically with a hedonic price model for the valuation of both the energy-saving and productivity effects of building technologies. Uncertainties about technology performance can cause investors to delay deploying new technologies. This behavior is explained by the ''investment under uncertainty'' literature. This literature suggests that under conditions of irrecoverable (''sunk'') costs, uncertain outcomes, and the ability to defer deployment, decision makers focus on potential losses and demand risk premiums and a few support the notion of focusing on losses, the so-called ''bad news principle.'' We describe a series of approaches to isolating buyer perceptions of uncertainty and means for reducing uncertainty.

Integrating uncertainty into public energy research and development decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Anadón, Laura Díaz; Baker, Erin; Bosetti, Valentina

2017-05-01

Public energy research and development (R&D) is recognized as a key policy tool for transforming the world's energy system in a cost-effective way. However, managing the uncertainty surrounding technological change is a critical challenge for designing robust and cost-effective energy policies. The design of such policies is particularly important if countries are going to both meet the ambitious greenhouse-gas emissions reductions goals set by the Paris Agreement and achieve the required harmonization with the broader set of objectives dictated by the Sustainable Development Goals. The complexity of informing energy technology policy requires, and is producing, a growing collaboration between different academic disciplines and practitioners. Three analytical components have emerged to support the integration of technological uncertainty into energy policy: expert elicitations, integrated assessment models, and decision frameworks. Here we review efforts to incorporate all three approaches to facilitate public energy R&D decision-making under uncertainty. We highlight emerging insights that are robust across elicitations, models, and frameworks, relating to the allocation of public R&D investments, and identify gaps and challenges that remain.

Uncertainty analysis of geothermal energy economics

Science.gov (United States)

Sener, Adil Caner

This dissertation research endeavors to explore geothermal energy economics by assessing and quantifying the uncertainties associated with the nature of geothermal energy and energy investments overall. The study introduces a stochastic geothermal cost model and a valuation approach for different geothermal power plant development scenarios. The Monte Carlo simulation technique is employed to obtain probability distributions of geothermal energy development costs and project net present values. In the study a stochastic cost model with incorporated dependence structure is defined and compared with the model where random variables are modeled as independent inputs. One of the goals of the study is to attempt to shed light on the long-standing modeling problem of dependence modeling between random input variables. The dependence between random input variables will be modeled by employing the method of copulas. The study focuses on four main types of geothermal power generation technologies and introduces a stochastic levelized cost model for each technology. Moreover, we also compare the levelized costs of natural gas combined cycle and coal-fired power plants with geothermal power plants. The input data used in the model relies on the cost data recently reported by government agencies and non-profit organizations, such as the Department of Energy, National Laboratories, California Energy Commission and Geothermal Energy Association. The second part of the study introduces the stochastic discounted cash flow valuation model for the geothermal technologies analyzed in the first phase. In this phase of the study, the Integrated Planning Model (IPM) software was used to forecast the revenue streams of geothermal assets under different price and regulation scenarios. These results are then combined to create a stochastic revenue forecast of the power plants. The uncertainties in gas prices and environmental regulations will be modeled and their potential impacts will be

Energy, Metaphysics, and Space: Ernst Mach's Interpretation of Energy Conservation as the Principle of Causality

Science.gov (United States)

Guzzardi, Luca

2014-06-01

This paper discusses Ernst Mach's interpretation of the principle of energy conservation (EC) in the context of the development of energy concepts and ideas about causality in nineteenth-century physics and theory of science. In doing this, it focuses on the close relationship between causality, energy conservation and space in Mach's antireductionist view of science. Mach expounds his thesis about EC in his first historical-epistemological essay, Die Geschichte und die Wurzel des Satzes von der Erhaltung der Arbeit (1872): far from being a new principle, it is used from the early beginnings of mechanics independently from other principles; in fact, EC is a pre-mechanical principle which is generally applied in investigating nature: it is, indeed, nothing but a form of the principle of causality. The paper focuses on the scientific-historical premises and philosophical underpinnings of Mach's thesis, beginning with the classic debate on the validity and limits of the notion of cause by Hume, Kant, and Helmholtz. Such reference also implies a discussion of the relationship between causality on the one hand and space and time on the other. This connection plays a major role for Mach, and in the final paragraphs its importance is argued in order to understand his antireductionist perspective, i.e. the rejection of any attempt to give an ultimate explanation of the world via reduction of nature to one fundamental set of phenomena.

Seven principle of highly effective Nuclear Energy Programs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferguson, Ch.D.; Reed, Ph.D.

2010-01-01

This paper presents seven principles that demand consideration for any country using a nuclear power program or wanting to acquire such a program. These principles are assessing the overall energy system, determining effective use of financial resources for energy development, ensuring high safety standards, implementing best security practices, preventing the spread of nuclear weapons, managing radioactive waste in a safe and secure manner, and enacting a legal framework that encompasses the other principle areas. The paper applies management methods that underscore development of strong independent national capabilities integrated within an interdependent international system. The paper discusses the individual responsibilities of states in all seven principles and offers recommendations for how states can benefit from greater international cooperation in nuclear energy development

Uncertainty, loss aversion, and markets for energy efficiency

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Greene, David L.

2011-01-01

Increasing energy efficiency is critical to mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from fossil-fuel combustion, reducing oil dependence, and achieving a sustainable global energy system. The tendency of markets to neglect apparently cost-effective energy efficiency options has been called the 'efficiency gap' or 'energy paradox.' The market for energy efficiency in new, energy-using durable goods, however, appears to have a bias that leads to undervaluation of future energy savings relative to their expected value. This paper argues that the bias is chiefly produced by the combination of substantial uncertainty about the net value of future fuel savings and the loss aversion of typical consumers. This framework relies on the theory of context-dependent preferences. The uncertainty-loss aversion bias against energy efficiency is quantifiable, making it potentially correctible by policy measures. The welfare economics of such policies remains unresolved. Data on the costs of increased fuel economy of new passenger cars, taken from a National Research Council study, illustrate how an apparently cost-effective increase in energy efficiency would be uninteresting to loss-averse consumers.

When the uncertainty principle goes up to 11 or how to explain quantum physics with heavy metal

CERN Document Server

Moriarty, Philip

2018-01-01

There are deep and fascinating links between heavy metal and quantum physics. No, there are. Really. While teaching at the University of Nottingham, physicist Philip Moriarty noticed something odd--a surprising number of his students were heavily into metal music. Colleagues, too: a Venn diagram of physicists and metal fans would show a shocking amount of overlap. What's more, it turns out that heavy metal music is uniquely well-suited to explaining quantum principles. In When the Uncertainty Principle Goes Up to Eleven, Moriarty explains the mysteries of the universe's inner workings via drum beats and feedback: You'll discover how the Heisenberg uncertainty principle comes into play with every chugging guitar riff, what wave interference has to do with Iron Maiden, and why metalheads in mosh pits behave just like molecules in a gas. If you're a metal fan trying to grasp the complexities of quantum physics, a quantum physicist baffled by heavy metal, or just someone who'd like to know how the fundamental sci...

Sampling-based nuclear data uncertainty quantification for continuous energy Monte-Carlo codes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhu, T.

2015-01-01

nuclear data uncertainty format. The first stage of NUSS development focuses on applying simple random sampling (SRS) algorithm for uncertainty quantification. The effect of combining multigroup and ACE format on the propagated nuclear data uncertainties is assessed. It is found that the number of energy groups has minor impact on the precision of κ_e_f_f uncertainty as long as the group structure reflects the neutron flux spectrum. Successful verification of the NUSS tool for propagating nuclear data uncertainties through MCNPX and quantifying MCNPX output parameter uncertainties is obtained. The second stage of NUSS development is motivated by the need for an efficient sensitivity analysis methodology based on global sampling and coupled with MCNPX. For complex systems, the computing time for obtaining a breakdown of total uncertainty contributions by individual inputs becomes prohibitive when many MCNPX runs are required. The capability of determining simultaneously the total uncertainty and individual nuclear data uncertainty contributions is thus researched and implemented into the NUSS-RF tool. It is based on the Random Balance Design algorithm and is validated by three mathematical test cases for both linear and nonlinear models and correlated inputs. NUSS-RF is then applied to demonstrate the efficient decomposition of total uncertainty by individual nuclear data. However an attempt to decompose total uncertainty into individual contributions using the conventional S/U method shows different decomposition results when the inputs are correlated. The investigation and findings of this PhD work are valuable because of the introduction of global sensitivity analysis into the existing repertoire of nuclear data uncertainty quantification methods. The NUSS tool is expected to be useful for expanding the types of MCNPX-related applications, such as an upgrade to the current PSI criticality safety assessment methodology for Swiss application, for which nuclear data

Sampling-based nuclear data uncertainty quantification for continuous energy Monte-Carlo codes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhu, T.

2015-07-01

nuclear data uncertainty format. The first stage of NUSS development focuses on applying simple random sampling (SRS) algorithm for uncertainty quantification. The effect of combining multigroup and ACE format on the propagated nuclear data uncertainties is assessed. It is found that the number of energy groups has minor impact on the precision of κ{sub eff} uncertainty as long as the group structure reflects the neutron flux spectrum. Successful verification of the NUSS tool for propagating nuclear data uncertainties through MCNPX and quantifying MCNPX output parameter uncertainties is obtained. The second stage of NUSS development is motivated by the need for an efficient sensitivity analysis methodology based on global sampling and coupled with MCNPX. For complex systems, the computing time for obtaining a breakdown of total uncertainty contributions by individual inputs becomes prohibitive when many MCNPX runs are required. The capability of determining simultaneously the total uncertainty and individual nuclear data uncertainty contributions is thus researched and implemented into the NUSS-RF tool. It is based on the Random Balance Design algorithm and is validated by three mathematical test cases for both linear and nonlinear models and correlated inputs. NUSS-RF is then applied to demonstrate the efficient decomposition of total uncertainty by individual nuclear data. However an attempt to decompose total uncertainty into individual contributions using the conventional S/U method shows different decomposition results when the inputs are correlated. The investigation and findings of this PhD work are valuable because of the introduction of global sensitivity analysis into the existing repertoire of nuclear data uncertainty quantification methods. The NUSS tool is expected to be useful for expanding the types of MCNPX-related applications, such as an upgrade to the current PSI criticality safety assessment methodology for Swiss application, for which nuclear data

Uncertainty in perception and the Hierarchical Gaussian Filter

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christoph Daniel Mathys

2014-11-01

Full Text Available In its full sense, perception rests on an agent’s model of how its sensory input comes about and the inferences it draws based on this model. These inferences are necessarily uncertain. Here, we illustrate how the hierarchical Gaussian filter (HGF offers a principled and generic way to deal with the several forms that uncertainty in perception takes. The HGF is a recent derivation of one-step update equations from Bayesian principles that rests on a hierarchical generative model of the environment and its (instability. It is computationally highly efficient, allows for online estimates of hidden states, and has found numerous applications to experimental data from human subjects. In this paper, we generalize previous descriptions of the HGF and its account of perceptual uncertainty. First, we explicitly formulate the extension of the HGF’s hierarchy to any number of levels; second, we discuss how various forms of uncertainty are accommodated by the minimization of variational free energy as encoded in the update equations; third, we combine the HGF with decision models and demonstrate the inversion of this combination; finally, we report a simulation study that compared four optimization methods for inverting the HGF/decision model combination at different noise levels. These four methods (Nelder-Mead simplex algorithm, Gaussian process-based global optimization, variational Bayes and Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling all performed well even under considerable noise, with variational Bayes offering the best combination of efficiency and informativeness of inference. Our results demonstrate that the HGF provides a principled, flexible, and efficient - but at the same time intuitive - framework for the resolution of perceptual uncertainty in behaving agents.

On investment, uncertainty, and strategic interaction with applications in energy markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murto, P.

2003-01-01

The thesis presents dynamic models on investment under uncertainty with the focus on strategic interaction and energy market applications. The uncertainty is modelled using stochastic processes as state variables. The specific questions analyzed include the effect of technological and revenue related uncertainties on the optimal timing of investment, the irreversibility in the choice between alternative investment projects with different degrees of uncertainty, and the effect of strategic interaction on the initiating of discrete investment projects, on the abandonment of a project, and on incremental capacity investments. The main methodological feature is the incorporation of game theoretic concepts in the theory of investment. It is argued that such an approach is often desirable in terms of real applications, because many industries are characterized by both uncertainty and strategic interaction between the firms. Besides extending the theory of investment, this line of work may be seen as an extension of the theory of industrial organization towards the direction that views market stability as one of the factors explaining rational behaviour of the firms. (orig.)

Planning Under Uncertainty for Aggregated Electric Vehicle Charging with Renewable Energy Supply

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Walraven, E.M.P.; Spaan, M.T.J.; Kaminka, Gal A.; Fox, Maria; Bouquet, Paolo; Hüllermeier, Eyke; Dignum, Virginia; Dignum, Frank; van Harmelen, Frank

2016-01-01

Renewable energy sources introduce uncertainty regarding generated power in smart grids. For instance, power that is generated by wind turbines is time-varying and dependent on the weather. Electric vehicles will become increasingly important in the development of smart grids with a high penetration

Quantum Gravity corrections and entropy at the Planck time

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Basilakos, Spyros; Vagenas, Elias C.; Das, Saurya

2010-01-01

We investigate the effects of Quantum Gravity on the Planck era of the universe. In particular, using different versions of the Generalized Uncertainty Principle and under specific conditions we find that the main Planck quantities such as the Planck time, length, mass and energy become larger by a factor of order 10−10 4 compared to those quantities which result from the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle. However, we prove that the dimensionless entropy enclosed in the cosmological horizon at the Planck time remains unchanged. These results, though preliminary, indicate that we should anticipate modifications in the set-up of cosmology since changes in the Planck era will be inherited even to the late universe through the framework of Quantum Gravity (or Quantum Field Theory) which utilizes the Planck scale as a fundamental one. More importantly, these corrections will not affect the entropic content of the universe at the Planck time which is a crucial element for one of the basic principles of Quantum Gravity named Holographic Principle

Image restoration, uncertainty, and information.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, F T

1969-01-01

Some of the physical interpretations about image restoration are discussed. From the theory of information the unrealizability of an inverse filter can be explained by degradation of information, which is due to distortion on the recorded image. The image restoration is a time and space problem, which can be recognized from the theory of relativity (the problem of image restoration is related to Heisenberg's uncertainty principle in quantum mechanics). A detailed discussion of the relationship between information and energy is given. Two general results may be stated: (1) the restoration of the image from the distorted signal is possible only if it satisfies the detectability condition. However, the restored image, at the best, can only approach to the maximum allowable time criterion. (2) The restoration of an image by superimposing the distorted signal (due to smearing) is a physically unrealizable method. However, this restoration procedure may be achieved by the expenditure of an infinite amount of energy.

Wind energy: Overcoming inadequate wind and modeling uncertainties

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kane, Vivek

2010-09-15

'Green Energy' is the call of the day, and significance of Wind Energy can never be overemphasized. But the key question here is - What if the wind resources are inadequate? Studies reveal that the probability of finding favorable wind at a given place on land is only 15%. Moreover, there are inherent uncertainties associated with wind business. Can we overcome inadequate wind resources? Can we scientifically quantify uncertainty and model it to make business sense? This paper proposes a solution, by way of break-through Wind Technologies, combined with advanced tools for Financial Modeling, enabling vital business decisions.

Energy Management Optimization for Cellular Networks under Renewable Energy Generation Uncertainty

KAUST Repository

Rached, Nadhir B.

2017-03-28

The integration of renewable energy (RE) as an alternative power source for cellular networks has been deeply investigated in literature. However, RE generation is often assumed to be deterministic; an impractical assumption for realistic scenarios. In this paper, an efficient energy procurement strategy for cellular networks powered simultaneously by the smart grid (SG) and locally deployed RE sources characterized by uncertain processes is proposed. For a one-day operation cycle, the mobile operator aims to reduce its total energy cost by optimizing the amounts of energy to be procured from the local RE sources and SG at each time period. Additionally, it aims to determine the amount of extra generated RE to be sold back to SG. A chance constrained optimization is first proposed to deal with the RE generation uncertainty. Then, two convex approximation approaches: Chernoff and Chebyshev methods, characterized by different levels of knowledge about the RE generation, are developed to determine the energy procurement strategy for different risk levels. In addition, their performances are analyzed for various daily scenarios through selected simulation results. It is shown that the higher complex Chernoff method outperforms the Chebyshev one for different risk levels set by the operator.

Energy Management Optimization for Cellular Networks under Renewable Energy Generation Uncertainty

KAUST Repository

Rached, Nadhir B.; Ghazzai, Hakim; Kadri, Abdullah; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim

2017-01-01

The integration of renewable energy (RE) as an alternative power source for cellular networks has been deeply investigated in literature. However, RE generation is often assumed to be deterministic; an impractical assumption for realistic scenarios. In this paper, an efficient energy procurement strategy for cellular networks powered simultaneously by the smart grid (SG) and locally deployed RE sources characterized by uncertain processes is proposed. For a one-day operation cycle, the mobile operator aims to reduce its total energy cost by optimizing the amounts of energy to be procured from the local RE sources and SG at each time period. Additionally, it aims to determine the amount of extra generated RE to be sold back to SG. A chance constrained optimization is first proposed to deal with the RE generation uncertainty. Then, two convex approximation approaches: Chernoff and Chebyshev methods, characterized by different levels of knowledge about the RE generation, are developed to determine the energy procurement strategy for different risk levels. In addition, their performances are analyzed for various daily scenarios through selected simulation results. It is shown that the higher complex Chernoff method outperforms the Chebyshev one for different risk levels set by the operator.

Determination of uncertainties in energy and exergy analysis of a power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ege, Ahmet; Şahin, Hacı Mehmet

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Energy and exergy efficiency uncertainties in a large thermal power plant examined. • Sensitivity analysis shows importance of basic measurements on efficiency analysis. • A quick and practical approach is provided for determining efficiency uncertainties. • Extreme case analysis characterizes maximum possible boundaries of uncertainties. • Uncertainty determination in a plant is a dynamic process with real data. - Abstract: In this study, energy and exergy efficiency uncertainties of a large scale lignite fired power plant cycle and various measurement parameter sensitivities were investigated for five different design power outputs (100%, 85%, 80%, 60% and 40%) and with real data of the plant. For that purpose a black box method was employed considering coal flow with Lower Heating Value (LHV) as a single input and electricity produced as a single output of the plant. The uncertainty of energy and exergy efficiency of the plant was evaluated with this method by applying sensitivity analysis depending on the effect of measurement parameters such as LHV, coal mass flow rate, cell generator output voltage/current. In addition, an extreme case analysis was investigated to determine the maximum range of the uncertainties. Results of the black box method showed that uncertainties varied between 1.82–1.98% for energy efficiency and 1.32–1.43% for exergy efficiency of the plant at an operating power level of 40–100% of full power. It was concluded that LHV determination was the most important uncertainty source of energy and exergy efficiency of the plant. The uncertainties of the extreme case analysis were determined between 2.30% and 2.36% for energy efficiency while 1.66% and 1.70% for exergy efficiency for 40–100% power output respectively. Proposed method was shown to be an approach for understanding major uncertainties as well as effects of some measurement parameters in a large scale thermal power plant

A global model for residential energy use: Uncertainty in calibration to regional data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

van Ruijven, Bas; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; de Vries, Bert; van der Sluijs, Jeroen P.

2010-01-01

Uncertainties in energy demand modelling allow for the development of different models, but also leave room for different calibrations of a single model. We apply an automated model calibration procedure to analyse calibration uncertainty of residential sector energy use modelling in the TIMER 2.0 global energy model. This model simulates energy use on the basis of changes in useful energy intensity, technology development (AEEI) and price responses (PIEEI). We find that different implementations of these factors yield behavioural model results. Model calibration uncertainty is identified as influential source for variation in future projections: amounting 30% to 100% around the best estimate. Energy modellers should systematically account for this and communicate calibration uncertainty ranges. (author)

Horizon Wavefunction of Generalized Uncertainty Principle Black Holes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luciano Manfredi

2016-01-01

Full Text Available We study the Horizon Wavefunction (HWF description of a Generalized Uncertainty Principle inspired metric that admits sub-Planckian black holes, where the black hole mass m is replaced by M=m1+β/2MPl2/m2. Considering the case of a wave-packet shaped by a Gaussian distribution, we compute the HWF and the probability PBH that the source is a (quantum black hole, that is, that it lies within its horizon radius. The case β0, where a minimum in PBH is encountered, thus meaning that every particle has some probability of decaying to a black hole. Furthermore, for sufficiently large β we find that every particle is a quantum black hole, in agreement with the intuitive effect of increasing β, which creates larger M and RH terms. This is likely due to a “dimensional reduction” feature of the model, where the black hole characteristics for sub-Planckian black holes mimic those in (1+1 dimensions and the horizon size grows as RH~M-1.

The equivalence principle in a quantum world

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bjerrum-Bohr, N. Emil J.; Donoghue, John F.; El-Menoufi, Basem Kamal

2015-01-01

the energy is small, we now have the tools to address this conflict explicitly. Despite the violation of some classical concepts, the EP continues to provide the core of the quantum gravity framework through the symmetry - general coordinate invariance - that is used to organize the effective field theory......We show how modern methods can be applied to quantum gravity at low energy. We test how quantum corrections challenge the classical framework behind the equivalence principle (EP), for instance through introduction of nonlocality from quantum physics, embodied in the uncertainty principle. When...

Uncertainty and Complementarity in Axiomatic Quantum Mechanics

Science.gov (United States)

Lahti, Pekka J.

1980-11-01

In this work an investigation of the uncertainty principle and the complementarity principle is carried through. A study of the physical content of these principles and their representation in the conventional Hilbert space formulation of quantum mechanics forms a natural starting point for this analysis. Thereafter is presented more general axiomatic framework for quantum mechanics, namely, a probability function formulation of the theory. In this general framework two extra axioms are stated, reflecting the ideas of the uncertainty principle and the complementarity principle, respectively. The quantal features of these axioms are explicated. The sufficiency of the state system guarantees that the observables satisfying the uncertainty principle are unbounded and noncompatible. The complementarity principle implies a non-Boolean proposition structure for the theory. Moreover, nonconstant complementary observables are always noncompatible. The uncertainty principle and the complementarity principle, as formulated in this work, are mutually independent. Some order is thus brought into the confused discussion about the interrelations of these two important principles. A comparison of the present formulations of the uncertainty principle and the complementarity principle with the Jauch formulation of the superposition principle is also given. The mutual independence of the three fundamental principles of the quantum theory is hereby revealed.

Effect of Streamflow Forecast Uncertainty on Real-Time Reservoir Operation

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, T.; Cai, X.; Yang, D.

2010-12-01

Various hydrological forecast products have been applied to real-time reservoir operation, including deterministic streamflow forecast (DSF), DSF-based probabilistic streamflow forecast (DPSF), and ensemble streamflow forecast (ESF), which represent forecast uncertainty in the form of deterministic forecast error, deterministic forecast error-based uncertainty distribution, and ensemble forecast errors, respectively. Compared to previous studies that treat these forecast products as ad hoc inputs for reservoir operation models, this paper attempts to model the uncertainties involved in the various forecast products and explores their effect on real-time reservoir operation decisions. In hydrology, there are various indices reflecting the magnitude of streamflow forecast uncertainty; meanwhile, few models illustrate the forecast uncertainty evolution process. This research introduces Martingale Model of Forecast Evolution (MMFE) from supply chain management and justifies its assumptions for quantifying the evolution of uncertainty in streamflow forecast as time progresses. Based on MMFE, this research simulates the evolution of forecast uncertainty in DSF, DPSF, and ESF, and applies the reservoir operation models (dynamic programming, DP; stochastic dynamic programming, SDP; and standard operation policy, SOP) to assess the effect of different forms of forecast uncertainty on real-time reservoir operation. Through a hypothetical single-objective real-time reservoir operation model, the results illustrate that forecast uncertainty exerts significant effects. Reservoir operation efficiency, as measured by a utility function, decreases as the forecast uncertainty increases. Meanwhile, these effects also depend on the type of forecast product being used. In general, the utility of reservoir operation with ESF is nearly as high as the utility obtained with a perfect forecast; the utilities of DSF and DPSF are similar to each other but not as efficient as ESF. Moreover

An energy principle for two-dimensional collisionless relativistic plasmas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Otto, A.; Schindler, K.

1984-01-01

Using relativistic Vlasov theory an energy principle for two-dimensional plasmas is derived, which provides a sufficient and necessary criterion for the stability of relativistic plasma equilibria. This energy principle includes charge separating effects since the exact Poisson equation was taken into consideration. Applying the variational principle to the case of the relativistic plane plasma sheet, the same marginal wave length is found as in the non-relativistic case. (author)

Characterization of the energy-dependent uncertainty and correlation in silicon neutron displacement damage metrics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Griffin Patrick

2017-01-01

Full Text Available A rigorous treatment of the uncertainty in the underlying nuclear data on silicon displacement damage metrics is presented. The uncertainty in the cross sections and recoil atom spectra are propagated into the energy-dependent uncertainty contribution in the silicon displacement kerma and damage energy using a Total Monte Carlo treatment. An energy-dependent covariance matrix is used to characterize the resulting uncertainty. A strong correlation between different reaction channels is observed in the high energy neutron contributions to the displacement damage metrics which supports the necessity of using a Monte Carlo based method to address the nonlinear nature of the uncertainty propagation.

Principles of sustainable energy systems

CERN Document Server

Kreith, Frank

2013-01-01

… ""This is an ideal book for seniors and graduate students interested in learning about the sustainable energy field and its penetration. The authors provide very strong discussion on cost-benefit analysis and ROI calculations for various alternate energy systems in current use. This is a descriptive book with detailed case-based analyses of various systems and engineering applications. The text book provides real-world case studies and related problems pertaining to sustainable energy systems.""--Dr. Kuruvilla John, University of North Texas""The new edition of ""Principles of Sustainable En

Methodologies of Uncertainty Propagation Calculation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chojnacki, Eric

2002-01-01

After recalling the theoretical principle and the practical difficulties of the methodologies of uncertainty propagation calculation, the author discussed how to propagate input uncertainties. He said there were two kinds of input uncertainty: - variability: uncertainty due to heterogeneity, - lack of knowledge: uncertainty due to ignorance. It was therefore necessary to use two different propagation methods. He demonstrated this in a simple example which he generalised, treating the variability uncertainty by the probability theory and the lack of knowledge uncertainty by the fuzzy theory. He cautioned, however, against the systematic use of probability theory which may lead to unjustifiable and illegitimate precise answers. Mr Chojnacki's conclusions were that the importance of distinguishing variability and lack of knowledge increased as the problem was getting more and more complex in terms of number of parameters or time steps, and that it was necessary to develop uncertainty propagation methodologies combining probability theory and fuzzy theory

Costs of travel time uncertainty and benefits of travel time information: Conceptual model and numerical examples

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ettema, D.F.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

2006-01-01

A negative effect of congestion that tends to be overlooked is travel time uncertainty. Travel time uncertainty causes scheduling costs due to early or late arrival. The negative effects of travel time uncertainty can be reduced by providing travellers with travel time information, which improves

Twelve Principles for Green Energy Storage in Grid Applications.

Science.gov (United States)

Arbabzadeh, Maryam; Johnson, Jeremiah X; Keoleian, Gregory A; Rasmussen, Paul G; Thompson, Levi T

2016-01-19

The introduction of energy storage technologies to the grid could enable greater integration of renewables, improve system resilience and reliability, and offer cost effective alternatives to transmission and distribution upgrades. The integration of energy storage systems into the electrical grid can lead to different environmental outcomes based on the grid application, the existing generation mix, and the demand. Given this complexity, a framework is needed to systematically inform design and technology selection about the environmental impacts that emerge when considering energy storage options to improve sustainability performance of the grid. To achieve this, 12 fundamental principles specific to the design and grid application of energy storage systems are developed to inform policy makers, designers, and operators. The principles are grouped into three categories: (1) system integration for grid applications, (2) the maintenance and operation of energy storage, and (3) the design of energy storage systems. We illustrate the application of each principle through examples published in the academic literature, illustrative calculations, and a case study with an off-grid application of vanadium redox flow batteries (VRFBs). In addition, trade-offs that can emerge between principles are highlighted.

Adoption of residential solar power under uncertainty: Implications for renewable energy incentives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bauner, Christoph; Crago, Christine L.

2015-01-01

Many incentives at the state and federal level exist for household adoption of renewable energy like solar photovoltaic (PV) panels. Despite generous financial incentives the adoption rate is low. We use the option value framework, which takes into account the benefit of delaying investment in response to uncertainty, to examine the decision by households to invest in solar PV. Using a simulation model, we determine optimal adoption times, critical values of discounted benefits, and adoption rates over time for solar PV investments using data from Massachusetts. We find that the option value multiplier is 1.6, which implies that the discounted value of benefits from solar PV needs to exceed installation cost by 60% for investment to occur. Without any policies, median adoption time is eight years longer under the option value decision rule compared to the net present value decision rule where households equate discounted benefits to installation cost. Rebates and other financial incentives decrease adoption time, but their effect is attenuated if households apply the option value decision rule to solar PV investments. Results suggest that policies that reduce the uncertainty in returns from solar PV investments would be most effective at incentivizing adoption. - Highlights: • We examine household adoption of solar PV using the option value framework. • Uncertainty in benefits and costs leads to delay in investment timing. • Discounted benefits from solar PV have to exceed investment cost by 60% to trigger investment. • Policy incentives that reduce uncertainty in returns from solar PV are most effective.

Time-advance algorithms based on Hamilton's principle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lewis, H.R.; Kostelec, P.J.

1993-01-01

Time-advance algorithms based on Hamilton's variational principle are being developed for application to problems in plasma physics and other areas. Hamilton's principle was applied previously to derive a system of ordinary differential equations in time whose solution provides an approximation to the evolution of a plasma described by the Vlasov-Maxwell equations. However, the variational principle was not used to obtain an algorithm for solving the ordinary differential equations numerically. The present research addresses the numerical solution of systems of ordinary differential equations via Hamilton's principle. The basic idea is first to choose a class of functions for approximating the solution of the ordinary differential equations over a specific time interval. Then the parameters in the approximating function are determined by applying Hamilton's principle exactly within the class of approximating functions. For example, if an approximate solution is desired between time t and time t + Δ t, the class of approximating functions could be polynomials in time up to some degree. The issue of how to choose time-advance algorithms is very important for achieving efficient, physically meaningful computer simulations. The objective is to reliably simulate those characteristics of an evolving system that are scientifically most relevant. Preliminary numerical results are presented, including comparisons with other computational methods

The influence of perceived uncertainty on entrepreneurial action in emerging renewable energy technology; biomass gasification projects in the Netherlands

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meijer, Ineke S.M.; Hekkert, Marko P.; Koppenjan, Joop F.M.

2007-01-01

Emerging renewable energy technologies cannot break through without the involvement of entrepreneurs who dare to take action amidst uncertainty. The uncertainties that the entrepreneurs involved perceive will greatly affect their innovation decisions and can prevent them from engaging in innovation projects aimed at developing and implementing emerging renewable energy technologies. This article analyzes how perceived uncertainties and motivation influence an entrepreneur's decision to act, using empirical data on biomass gasification projects in the Netherlands. Our empirical results show that technological, political and resource uncertainty are the most dominant sources of perceived uncertainty influencing entrepreneurial decision-making. By performing a dynamic analysis, we furthermore demonstrate that perceived uncertainties and motivation are not stable, but evolve over time. We identify critical factors in the project's internal and external environment which influence these changes in perceived uncertainties and motivation, and describe how various interactions between the different variables in the conceptual model (internal and external factors, perceived uncertainty, motivation and previous actions of the entrepreneurs) positively or negatively influence the decision of entrepreneurs to continue entrepreneurial action. We discuss how policymakers can use these insights for stimulating the development and diffusion of emerging renewable energy technologies

On Fermat's principle for causal curves in time oriented Finsler spacetimes

Science.gov (United States)

Gallego Torromé, Ricardo; Piccione, Paolo; Vitório, Henrique

2012-12-01

In this work, a version of Fermat's principle for causal curves with the same energy in time orientable Finsler spacetimes is proved. We calculate the second variation of the time arrival functional along a geodesic in terms of the index form associated with the Finsler spacetime Lagrangian. Then the character of the critical points of the time arrival functional is investigated and a Morse index theorem in the context of Finsler spacetime is presented.

Uncertainty in temperature-based determination of time of death

Science.gov (United States)

Weiser, Martin; Erdmann, Bodo; Schenkl, Sebastian; Muggenthaler, Holger; Hubig, Michael; Mall, Gita; Zachow, Stefan

2018-03-01

Temperature-based estimation of time of death (ToD) can be performed either with the help of simple phenomenological models of corpse cooling or with detailed mechanistic (thermodynamic) heat transfer models. The latter are much more complex, but allow a higher accuracy of ToD estimation as in principle all relevant cooling mechanisms can be taken into account. The potentially higher accuracy depends on the accuracy of tissue and environmental parameters as well as on the geometric resolution. We investigate the impact of parameter variations and geometry representation on the estimated ToD. For this, numerical simulation of analytic heat transport models is performed on a highly detailed 3D corpse model, that has been segmented and geometrically reconstructed from a computed tomography (CT) data set, differentiating various organs and tissue types. From that and prior information available on thermal parameters and their variability, we identify the most crucial parameters to measure or estimate, and obtain an a priori uncertainty quantification for the ToD.

HESS Opinions: "Climate, hydrology, energy, water: recognizing uncertainty and seeking sustainability"

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Karavokiros

2009-02-01

Full Text Available Since 1990 extensive funds have been spent on research in climate change. Although Earth Sciences, including climatology and hydrology, have benefited significantly, progress has proved incommensurate with the effort and funds, perhaps because these disciplines were perceived as "tools" subservient to the needs of the climate change enterprise rather than autonomous sciences. At the same time, research was misleadingly focused more on the "symptom", i.e. the emission of greenhouse gases, than on the "illness", i.e. the unsustainability of fossil fuel-based energy production. Unless energy saving and use of renewable resources become the norm, there is a real risk of severe socioeconomic crisis in the not-too-distant future. A framework for drastic paradigm change is needed, in which water plays a central role, due to its unique link to all forms of renewable energy, from production (hydro and wave power to storage (for time-varying wind and solar sources, to biofuel production (irrigation. The extended role of water should be considered in parallel to its other uses, domestic, agricultural and industrial. Hydrology, the science of water on Earth, must move towards this new paradigm by radically rethinking its fundamentals, which are unjustifiably trapped in the 19th-century myths of deterministic theories and the zeal to eliminate uncertainty. Guidance is offered by modern statistical and quantum physics, which reveal the intrinsic character of uncertainty/entropy in nature, thus advancing towards a new understanding and modelling of physical processes, which is central to the effective use of renewable energy and water resources.

Emotional valence and the free-energy principle.

Science.gov (United States)

Joffily, Mateus; Coricelli, Giorgio

2013-01-01

The free-energy principle has recently been proposed as a unified Bayesian account of perception, learning and action. Despite the inextricable link between emotion and cognition, emotion has not yet been formulated under this framework. A core concept that permeates many perspectives on emotion is valence, which broadly refers to the positive and negative character of emotion or some of its aspects. In the present paper, we propose a definition of emotional valence in terms of the negative rate of change of free-energy over time. If the second time-derivative of free-energy is taken into account, the dynamics of basic forms of emotion such as happiness, unhappiness, hope, fear, disappointment and relief can be explained. In this formulation, an important function of emotional valence turns out to regulate the learning rate of the causes of sensory inputs. When sensations increasingly violate the agent's expectations, valence is negative and increases the learning rate. Conversely, when sensations increasingly fulfil the agent's expectations, valence is positive and decreases the learning rate. This dynamic interaction between emotional valence and learning rate highlights the crucial role played by emotions in biological agents' adaptation to unexpected changes in their world.

Emotional valence and the free-energy principle.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mateus Joffily

Full Text Available The free-energy principle has recently been proposed as a unified Bayesian account of perception, learning and action. Despite the inextricable link between emotion and cognition, emotion has not yet been formulated under this framework. A core concept that permeates many perspectives on emotion is valence, which broadly refers to the positive and negative character of emotion or some of its aspects. In the present paper, we propose a definition of emotional valence in terms of the negative rate of change of free-energy over time. If the second time-derivative of free-energy is taken into account, the dynamics of basic forms of emotion such as happiness, unhappiness, hope, fear, disappointment and relief can be explained. In this formulation, an important function of emotional valence turns out to regulate the learning rate of the causes of sensory inputs. When sensations increasingly violate the agent's expectations, valence is negative and increases the learning rate. Conversely, when sensations increasingly fulfil the agent's expectations, valence is positive and decreases the learning rate. This dynamic interaction between emotional valence and learning rate highlights the crucial role played by emotions in biological agents' adaptation to unexpected changes in their world.

Imperfect pitch: Gabor's uncertainty principle and the pitch of extremely brief sounds.

Science.gov (United States)

Hsieh, I-Hui; Saberi, Kourosh

2016-02-01

How brief must a sound be before its pitch is no longer perceived? The uncertainty tradeoff between temporal and spectral resolution (Gabor's principle) limits the minimum duration required for accurate pitch identification or discrimination. Prior studies have reported that pitch can be extracted from sinusoidal pulses as brief as half a cycle. This finding has been used in a number of classic papers to develop models of pitch encoding. We have found that phase randomization, which eliminates timbre confounds, degrades this ability to chance, raising serious concerns over the foundation on which classic pitch models have been built. The current study investigated whether subthreshold pitch cues may still exist in partial-cycle pulses revealed through statistical integration in a time series containing multiple pulses. To this end, we measured frequency-discrimination thresholds in a two-interval forced-choice task for trains of partial-cycle random-phase tone pulses. We found that residual pitch cues exist in these pulses but discriminating them requires an order of magnitude (ten times) larger frequency difference than that reported previously, necessitating a re-evaluation of pitch models built on earlier findings. We also found that as pulse duration is decreased to less than two cycles its pitch becomes biased toward higher frequencies, consistent with predictions of an auto-correlation model of pitch extraction.

Optimization under uncertainty of a biomass-integrated renewable energy microgrid with energy storage

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zheng, Yingying; Jenkins, Bryan M.; Kornbluth, Kurt

2018-01-01

Deterministic constrained optimization and stochastic optimization approaches were used to evaluate uncertainties in biomass-integrated microgrids supplying both electricity and heat. An economic linear programming model with a sliding time window was developed to assess design and scheduling...... of biomass combined heat and power (BCHP) based microgrid systems. Other available technologies considered within the microgrid were small-scale wind turbines, photovoltaic modules (PV), producer gas storage, battery storage, thermal energy storage and heat-only boilers. As an illustrative example, a case...... study was examined for a conceptual utility grid-connected microgrid application in Davis, California. The results show that for the assumptions used, a BCHP/PV with battery storage combination is the most cost effective design based on the assumed energy load profile, local climate data, utility tariff...

The free-energy principle: a unified brain theory?

Science.gov (United States)

Friston, Karl

2010-02-01

A free-energy principle has been proposed recently that accounts for action, perception and learning. This Review looks at some key brain theories in the biological (for example, neural Darwinism) and physical (for example, information theory and optimal control theory) sciences from the free-energy perspective. Crucially, one key theme runs through each of these theories - optimization. Furthermore, if we look closely at what is optimized, the same quantity keeps emerging, namely value (expected reward, expected utility) or its complement, surprise (prediction error, expected cost). This is the quantity that is optimized under the free-energy principle, which suggests that several global brain theories might be unified within a free-energy framework.

Kinetic energy principle and neoclassical toroidal torque in tokamaks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Jong-Kyu

2011-01-01

It is shown that when tokamaks are perturbed, the kinetic energy principle is closely related to the neoclassical toroidal torque by the action invariance of particles. Especially when tokamaks are perturbed from scalar pressure equilibria, the imaginary part of the potential energy in the kinetic energy principle is equivalent to the toroidal torque by the neoclassical toroidal viscosity. A unified description therefore should be made for both physics. It is also shown in this case that the potential energy operator can be self-adjoint and thus the stability calculation can be simplified by minimizing the potential energy.

Optimal Sizing of Energy Storage Systems for the Energy Procurement Problem in Multi-Period Markets under Uncertainties

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ryusuke Konishi

2018-01-01

Full Text Available In deregulated electricity markets, minimizing the procurement costs of electricity is a critical problem for procurement agencies (PAs. However, uncertainty is inevitable for PAs and includes multiple factors such as market prices, photovoltaic system (PV output and demand. This study focuses on settlements in multi-period markets (a day-ahead market and a real-time market and the installation of energy storage systems (ESSs. ESSs can be utilized for time arbitrage in the day-ahead market and to reduce the purchasing/selling of electricity in the real-time market. However, the high costs of an ESS mean the size of the system needs to be minimized. In addition, when determining the size of an ESS, it is important to identify the size appropriate for each role. Therefore, we employ the concept of a “slow” and a “fast” ESS to quantify the size of a system’s role, based on the values associated with the various uncertainties. Because the problem includes nonlinearity and non-convexity, we solve it within a realistic computational burden by reformulating the problem using reasonable assumptions. Therefore, this study identifies the optimal sizes of ESSs and procurement, taking into account the uncertainties of prices in multi-period markets, PV output and demand.

Before and beyond the precautionary principle: Epistemology of uncertainty in science and law

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tallacchini, Mariachiara

2005-01-01

The precautionary principle has become, in European regulation of science and technology, a general principle for the protection of the health of human beings, animals, plants, and the environment. It requires that '[w]here there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation'. By focusing on situations of scientific uncertainty where data are lacking, insufficient, or inconclusive, the principle introduced a shift from a neutral legal attitude towards science to a bias in favor of safety, and a shift from the paradigm of science certain and objective to the awareness that the legal regulation of science involves decisions about values and interests. Implementation of the precautionary principle is highly variable. A crucial question still needs to be answered regarding the assumption that scientific certainty is a 'normal' characteristic of scientific knowledge. The relationship between technoscience and society has moved into a situation where uncertain knowledge is the rule. From this perspective, a more general framework for a democratic governance of science is needed. In democratic society, science may still have a special authoritative voice, but it cannot be the ultimate word on decisions that only the broader society may make. Therefore, the precautionary model of scientific regulation needs to be informed by an 'extended participatory model' of the relationship between science and society

Mach's principle and space-time structure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raine, D.J.

1981-01-01

Mach's principle, that inertial forces should be generated by the motion of a body relative to the bulk of matter in the universe, is shown to be related to the structure imposed on space-time by dynamical theories. General relativity theory and Mach's principle are both shown to be well supported by observations. Since Mach's principle is not contained in general relativity this leads to a discussion of attempts to derive Machian theories. The most promising of these appears to be a selection rule for solutions of the general relativistic field equations, in which the space-time metric structure is generated by the matter content of the universe only in a well-defined way. (author)

The time course of attention modulation elicited by spatial uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Dan; Liang, Huilou; Xue, Linyan; Wang, Meijian; Hu, Qiyi; Chen, Yao

2017-09-01

Uncertainty regarding the target location is an influential factor for spatial attention. Modulation in spatial uncertainty can lead to adjustments in attention scope and variations in attention effects. Hence, investigating spatial uncertainty modulation is important for understanding the underlying mechanism of spatial attention. However, the temporal dynamics of this modulation remains unclear. To evaluate the time course of spatial uncertainty modulation, we adopted a Posner-like attention orienting paradigm with central or peripheral cues. Different numbers of cues were used to indicate the potential locations of the target and thereby manipulate the spatial uncertainty level. The time interval between the onsets of the cue and the target (stimulus onset asynchrony, SOA) varied from 50 to 2000ms. We found that under central cueing, the effect of spatial uncertainty modulation could be detected from 200 to 2000ms after the presence of the cues. Under peripheral cueing, the effect of spatial uncertainty modulation was observed from 50 to 2000ms after cueing. Our results demonstrate that spatial uncertainty modulation produces robust and sustained effects on target detection speed. The time course of this modulation is influenced by the cueing method, which suggests that discrepant processing procedures are involved under different cueing conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Uncertainty in Analyzed Water and Energy Budgets at Continental Scales

Science.gov (United States)

Bosilovich, Michael G.; Robertson, F. R.; Mocko, D.; Chen, J.

2011-01-01

Operational analyses and retrospective-analyses provide all the physical terms of mater and energy budgets, guided by the assimilation of atmospheric observations. However, there is significant reliance on the numerical models, and so, uncertainty in the budget terms is always present. Here, we use a recently developed data set consisting of a mix of 10 analyses (both operational and retrospective) to quantify the uncertainty of analyzed water and energy budget terms for GEWEX continental-scale regions, following the evaluation of Dr. John Roads using individual reanalyses data sets.

Renewable energy sources project appraisal under uncertainty: the case of wind energy exploitation within a changing energy market environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Venetsanos, K.; Angelopoulou, P.; Tsoutsos, T.

2002-01-01

There are four elements, which contribute to the oncoming increase of electricity demand: climate changes, the expected growth rates of EU Member State economies, changes in the consumption patterns and the introduction of new technologies. The new deregulated Electricity Market is expected to respond to this challenge and the energy supply will be adequate and cost effective within this new environment which offers promising opportunities for power producers both existing and newcomers. In this paper a framework for the appraisal of power projects under uncertainty within a competitive market environment is identified, focusing on the electricity from Renewable Energy Sources. To this end the wind energy-to-electricity, production in Greece will serve as a case study. The subject matter is centred on the following areas: the uncertainties within the new deregulated energy market; the evaluation methods including an analysis of the introduced uncertainties after deregulation and a new approach to project evaluation using the real options, as well as comparison of the valuation methodologies within the new environment drawing from the case for Greece. (author)

Thermodynamic properties of ideal Fermi gases in a harmonic potential in an n-dimensional space under the generalized uncertainty principle

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Heling; Ren, Jinxiu; Wang, Wenwei; Yang, Bin; Shen, Hongjun

2018-02-01

Using the semi-classical (Thomas-Fermi) approximation, the thermodynamic properties of ideal Fermi gases in a harmonic potential in an n-dimensional space are studied under the generalized uncertainty principle (GUP). The mean particle number, internal energy, heat capacity and other thermodynamic variables of the Fermi system are calculated analytically. Then, analytical expressions of the mean particle number, internal energy, heat capacity, chemical potential, Fermi energy, ground state energy and amendments of the GUP are obtained at low temperatures. The influence of both the GUP and the harmonic potential on the thermodynamic properties of a copper-electron gas and other systems with higher electron densities are studied numerically at low temperatures. We find: (1) When the GUP is considered, the influence of the harmonic potential is very much larger, and the amendments produced by the GUP increase by eight to nine orders of magnitude compared to when no external potential is applied to the electron gas. (2) The larger the particle density, or the smaller the particle masses, the bigger the influence of the GUP. (3) The effect of the GUP increases with the increase in the spatial dimensions. (4) The amendments of the chemical potential, Fermi energy and ground state energy increase with an increase in temperature, while the heat capacity decreases. T F0 is the Fermi temperature of the ideal Fermi system in a harmonic potential. When the temperature is lower than a certain value (0.22 times T F0 for the copper-electron gas, and this value decreases with increasing electron density), the amendment to the internal energy is positive, however, the amendment decreases with increasing temperature. When the temperature increases to the value, the amendment is zero, and when the temperature is higher than the value, the amendment to the internal energy is negative and the absolute value of the amendment increases with increasing temperature. (5) When electron

Stakeholder-driven multi-attribute analysis for energy project selection under uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Read, Laura; Madani, Kaveh; Mokhtari, Soroush; Hanks, Catherine

2017-01-01

In practice, selecting an energy project for development requires balancing criteria and competing stakeholder priorities to identify the best alternative. Energy source selection can be modeled as multi-criteria decision-maker problems to provide quantitative support to reconcile technical, economic, environmental, social, and political factors with respect to the stakeholders' interests. Decision making among these complex interactions should also account for the uncertainty present in the input data. In response, this work develops a stochastic decision analysis framework to evaluate alternatives by involving stakeholders to identify both quantitative and qualitative selection criteria and performance metrics which carry uncertainties. The developed framework is illustrated using a case study from Fairbanks, Alaska, where decision makers and residents must decide on a new source of energy for heating and electricity. We approach this problem in a five step methodology: (1) engaging experts (role players) to develop criteria of project performance; (2) collecting a range of quantitative and qualitative input information to determine the performance of each proposed solution according to the selected criteria; (3) performing a Monte-Carlo analysis to capture uncertainties given in the inputs; (4) applying multi-criteria decision-making, social choice (voting), and fallback bargaining methods to account for three different levels of cooperation among the stakeholders; and (5) computing an aggregate performance index (API) score for each alternative based on its performance across criteria and cooperation levels. API scores communicate relative performance between alternatives. In this way, our methodology maps uncertainty from the input data to reflect risk in the decision and incorporates varying degrees of cooperation into the analysis to identify an optimal and practical alternative. - Highlights: • We develop an applicable stakeholder-driven framework for

Basic environmental principles for the promotion of clean and efficient energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hanmer, R.; Connor-Lajambe, H.

1994-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to reiterate what might be considered basic principles for promoting clean and efficient energy. These principles have very important implications for the design of energy supply and transportation facilities, but they go far beyond that to unify such design with the design, use and maintenance of many other types of facilities and goods. These principles also affect the way we consider energy security in the context of sustainable development. In annex, this paper presents the recommendation of the Council, with a list of environmentally favourable energy options. (TEC). 2 refs., Annex

Mapping of uncertainty relations between continuous and discrete time.

Science.gov (United States)

Chiuchiù, Davide; Pigolotti, Simone

2018-03-01

Lower bounds on fluctuations of thermodynamic currents depend on the nature of time, discrete or continuous. To understand the physical reason, we compare current fluctuations in discrete-time Markov chains and continuous-time master equations. We prove that current fluctuations in the master equations are always more likely, due to random timings of transitions. This comparison leads to a mapping of the moments of a current between discrete and continuous time. We exploit this mapping to obtain uncertainty bounds. Our results reduce the quests for uncertainty bounds in discrete and continuous time to a single problem.

Inclusion of time uncertainty in calibration of ionizing radiations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jordao, B.O.; Quaresma, D.S.; Carvalho, R.J.; Peixoto, J.G.P.

2014-01-01

In terms of metrology, two key factors for reliability employed in the calibration process are what we call Traceability and Uncertainty. Traceability will provide confidence in measurements. Already uncertainty will provide security and quality of what this being measured. Based on the above, this article suggests the implementation time of uncertainty in the calibration of radiological instruments thus increasing the reliability and traceability of the system. (author)

Role of information theoretic uncertainty relations in quantum theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jizba, Petr; Dunningham, Jacob A.; Joo, Jaewoo

2015-01-01

Uncertainty relations based on information theory for both discrete and continuous distribution functions are briefly reviewed. We extend these results to account for (differential) Rényi entropy and its related entropy power. This allows us to find a new class of information-theoretic uncertainty relations (ITURs). The potency of such uncertainty relations in quantum mechanics is illustrated with a simple two-energy-level model where they outperform both the usual Robertson–Schrödinger uncertainty relation and Shannon entropy based uncertainty relation. In the continuous case the ensuing entropy power uncertainty relations are discussed in the context of heavy tailed wave functions and Schrödinger cat states. Again, improvement over both the Robertson–Schrödinger uncertainty principle and Shannon ITUR is demonstrated in these cases. Further salient issues such as the proof of a generalized entropy power inequality and a geometric picture of information-theoretic uncertainty relations are also discussed

Role of information theoretic uncertainty relations in quantum theory

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jizba, Petr, E-mail: p.jizba@fjfi.cvut.cz [FNSPE, Czech Technical University in Prague, Břehová 7, 115 19 Praha 1 (Czech Republic); ITP, Freie Universität Berlin, Arnimallee 14, D-14195 Berlin (Germany); Dunningham, Jacob A., E-mail: J.Dunningham@sussex.ac.uk [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Sussex, Falmer, Brighton, BN1 9QH (United Kingdom); Joo, Jaewoo, E-mail: j.joo@surrey.ac.uk [Advanced Technology Institute and Department of Physics, University of Surrey, Guildford, GU2 7XH (United Kingdom)

2015-04-15

Uncertainty relations based on information theory for both discrete and continuous distribution functions are briefly reviewed. We extend these results to account for (differential) Rényi entropy and its related entropy power. This allows us to find a new class of information-theoretic uncertainty relations (ITURs). The potency of such uncertainty relations in quantum mechanics is illustrated with a simple two-energy-level model where they outperform both the usual Robertson–Schrödinger uncertainty relation and Shannon entropy based uncertainty relation. In the continuous case the ensuing entropy power uncertainty relations are discussed in the context of heavy tailed wave functions and Schrödinger cat states. Again, improvement over both the Robertson–Schrödinger uncertainty principle and Shannon ITUR is demonstrated in these cases. Further salient issues such as the proof of a generalized entropy power inequality and a geometric picture of information-theoretic uncertainty relations are also discussed.

Maximally Localized States and Quantum Corrections of Black Hole Thermodynamics in the Framework of a New Generalized Uncertainty Principle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Shao-Jun; Miao, Yan-Gang; Zhao, Ying-Jie

2015-01-01

As a generalized uncertainty principle (GUP) leads to the effects of the minimal length of the order of the Planck scale and UV/IR mixing, some significant physical concepts and quantities are modified or corrected correspondingly. On the one hand, we derive the maximally localized states—the physical states displaying the minimal length uncertainty associated with a new GUP proposed in our previous work. On the other hand, in the framework of this new GUP we calculate quantum corrections to the thermodynamic quantities of the Schwardzschild black hole, such as the Hawking temperature, the entropy, and the heat capacity, and give a remnant mass of the black hole at the end of the evaporation process. Moreover, we compare our results with that obtained in the frameworks of several other GUPs. In particular, we observe a significant difference between the situations with and without the consideration of the UV/IR mixing effect in the quantum corrections to the evaporation rate and the decay time. That is, the decay time can greatly be prolonged in the former case, which implies that the quantum correction from the UV/IR mixing effect may give rise to a radical rather than a tiny influence to the Hawking radiation.

Uncertainty in wave energy resource assessment. Part 2: Variability and predictability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mackay, Edward B.L.; Bahaj, AbuBakr S.; Challenor, Peter G.

2010-01-01

The uncertainty in estimates of the energy yield from a wave energy converter (WEC) is considered. The study is presented in two articles. The first article considered the accuracy of the historic data and the second article, presented here, considers the uncertainty which arises from variability in the wave climate. Mean wave conditions exhibit high levels of interannual variability. Moreover, many previous studies have demonstrated longer-term decadal changes in wave climate. The effect of interannual and climatic changes in wave climate on the predictability of long-term mean WEC power is examined for an area off the north coast of Scotland. In this location anomalies in mean WEC power are strongly correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. This link enables the results of many previous studies on the variability of the NAO and its sensitivity to climate change to be applied to WEC power levels. It is shown that the variability in 5, 10 and 20 year mean power levels is greater than if annual power anomalies were uncorrelated noise. It is also shown that the change in wave climate from anthropogenic climate change over the life time of a wave farm is likely to be small in comparison to the natural level of variability. Finally, it is shown that despite the uncertainty related to variability in the wave climate, improvements in the accuracy of historic data will improve the accuracy of predictions of future WEC yield. (author)

Uncertainty relations, zero point energy and the linear canonical group

Science.gov (United States)

Sudarshan, E. C. G.

1993-01-01

The close relationship between the zero point energy, the uncertainty relations, coherent states, squeezed states, and correlated states for one mode is investigated. This group-theoretic perspective enables the parametrization and identification of their multimode generalization. In particular the generalized Schroedinger-Robertson uncertainty relations are analyzed. An elementary method of determining the canonical structure of the generalized correlated states is presented.

Optimization of Korean energy planning for sustainability considering uncertainties in learning rates and external factors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Seunghyok; Koo, Jamin; Lee, Chang Jun; Yoon, En Sup

2012-01-01

During the last few decades, energy planning has focused on meeting domestic demand at lower total costs. However, global warming and the shared recognition of it have transformed the problem of energy planning into a more complex task with a greater number of issues to be considered. Since the key issue is to reduce greenhouse effects, governments around the world have begun to make investments in renewable energy systems (e.g., hydro, wind, solar, and/or biomass power). The relatively high costs of renewable energy systems and the uncertain outlook of their rate of diffusion in the market make it difficult to heavily rely on them. The uncertain variations in production cost over time are especially challenging. To handle uncertainties, the concept of the learning rate was adopted in this study so as to compute the costs of energy systems in the future and Monte Carlo simulation was performed. The aim of this study was to optimize plans of conventional and prospective renewable energy systems with respect to production cost. The production cost included capital, fixed, variable, and external costs. For the case study, the energy situation in South Korea was used. The results of the case study where the proposed methodology was applied could provide useful insights economically and strategies of sustainable energy management for ambiguous environments. -- Highlights: ► We propose energy planning method for sustainability. ► We consider uncertainties such as learning rate, fuel prices, and CO 2 prices. ► We consider the possibility of CO 2 trading. ► The proposed method is applied to South Korea case. ► The added capacities of energy systems depend on uncertainties.

Assessment of Uncertainty in the Determination of Activation Energy for Polymeric Materials

Science.gov (United States)

Darby, Stephania P.; Landrum, D. Brian; Coleman, Hugh W.

1998-01-01

An assessment of the experimental uncertainty in obtaining the kinetic activation energy from thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) data is presented. A neat phenolic resin, Borden SC1O08, was heated at three heating rates to obtain weight loss vs temperature data. Activation energy was calculated by two methods: the traditional Flynn and Wall method based on the slope of log(q) versus 1/T, and a modification of this method where the ordinate and abscissa are reversed in the linear regression. The modified method produced a more accurate curve fit of the data, was more sensitive to data nonlinearity, and gave a value of activation energy 75 percent greater than the original method. An uncertainty analysis using the modified method yielded a 60 percent uncertainty in the average activation energy. Based on this result, the activation energy for a carbon-phenolic material was doubled and used to calculate the ablation rate In a typical solid rocket environment. Doubling the activation energy increased surface recession by 3 percent. Current TGA data reduction techniques that use the traditional Flynn and Wall approach to calculate activation energy should be changed to the modified method.

First-principles and classical molecular dynamics study of threshold displacement energy in beryllium

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vladimirov, P.V. [Institute for Applied Materials – Applied Materials Physics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, P.O. Box 3640, 76021 Karlsruhe (Germany); Borodin, V.A., E-mail: Borodin_VA@nrcki.ru [National Research Center “Kurchatov Institute”, 123182 Moscow (Russian Federation); NRNU MEPhI, 115409 Moscow (Russian Federation)

2017-02-15

Highlights: • Beryllium is a functional material of future fusion reactors. • The threshold displacement energy by fast particles is studied. • Classical and first principles simulations are used. - Abstract: Beryllium selected as a neutron multiplier material for the tritium breeding blanket of fusion reactor should withstand high doses of fast neutron irradiation. The damage produced by irradiation is usually evaluated assuming that the number of atomic displacements to the threshold displacement energy, E{sub d}, which is considered as an intrinsic material parameter. In this work the value of E{sub d} for hcp beryllium is estimated simultaneously from classical and first-principles molecular dynamics simulations. Quite similar quantitative pictures of defect production are observed in both simulation types, though the predicted displacement threshold values seem to be approximately two times higher in the first-principles approach. We expect that, after more detailed first-principles investigations, this approach can be used for scaling the damage prediction predictions by classical molecular dynamics, opening a way for more consistent calculations of displacement damage in materials.

The Precautionary Principle and statistical approaches to uncertainty

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Keiding, Niels; Budtz-Jørgensen, Esben

2003-01-01

Bayesian model averaging; Benchmark approach to safety standards in toxicology; dose-response relationship; environmental standards; exposure measurement uncertainty; Popper falsification......Bayesian model averaging; Benchmark approach to safety standards in toxicology; dose-response relationship; environmental standards; exposure measurement uncertainty; Popper falsification...

The Precautionary Principle and Statistical Approaches to Uncertainty

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Keiding, Niels; Budtz-Jørgensen, Esben

2005-01-01

Bayesian model averaging; Benchmark approach to safety standars in toxicology; dose-response relationships; environmental standards; exposure measurement uncertainty; Popper falsification......Bayesian model averaging; Benchmark approach to safety standars in toxicology; dose-response relationships; environmental standards; exposure measurement uncertainty; Popper falsification...

Uncertainty and complementarity in axiomatic quantum mechanics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lahti, P.J.

1980-01-01

An investigation of the uncertainty principle and the complementarity principle is carried through. The physical content of these principles and their representation in the conventional Hilbert space formulation of quantum mechanics forms a natural starting point. Thereafter is presented more general axiomatic framework for quantum mechanics, namely, a probability function formulation of the theory. Two extra axioms are stated, reflecting the ideas of the uncertainty principle and the complementarity principle, respectively. The quantal features of these axioms are explicated. (author)

Energy principle with global invariants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bhattacharjee, A.; Dewar, R.L.

1981-04-01

A variational principle is proposed for constructing equilibria with minimum energy in a toroidal plasma. The total energy is minimized subject to global invariants which act as constraints during relaxation of the plasma. These global integrals of motion are preserved exactly for all idea motions and approximately for a wide class of resistive motions. We assume, specifically, that relaxation of the plasma is dominated by a tearing mode of single helicity. Equilibria with realistic current density and pressure profiles may be constructed in this theory, which is also used here to study current penetration in tokamaks. The second variation of the free energy functional is computed. It is shown that if the second variation of any equilibrium constructed in this theory is positive, the equilibrium satisfies the necessary and sufficient conditions for ideal stability

Thermodynamics of a class of regular black holes with a generalized uncertainty principle

Science.gov (United States)

Maluf, R. V.; Neves, Juliano C. S.

2018-05-01

In this article, we present a study on thermodynamics of a class of regular black holes. Such a class includes Bardeen and Hayward regular black holes. We obtained thermodynamic quantities like the Hawking temperature, entropy, and heat capacity for the entire class. As part of an effort to indicate some physical observable to distinguish regular black holes from singular black holes, we suggest that regular black holes are colder than singular black holes. Besides, contrary to the Schwarzschild black hole, that class of regular black holes may be thermodynamically stable. From a generalized uncertainty principle, we also obtained the quantum-corrected thermodynamics for the studied class. Such quantum corrections provide a logarithmic term for the quantum-corrected entropy.

Massive vector particles tunneling from black holes influenced by the generalized uncertainty principle

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiang-Qian Li

2016-12-01

Full Text Available This study considers the generalized uncertainty principle, which incorporates the central idea of large extra dimensions, to investigate the processes involved when massive spin-1 particles tunnel from Reissner–Nordstrom and Kerr black holes under the effects of quantum gravity. For the black hole, the quantum gravity correction decelerates the increase in temperature. Up to O(1Mf2, the corrected temperatures are affected by the mass and angular momentum of the emitted vector bosons. In addition, the temperature of the Kerr black hole becomes uneven due to rotation. When the mass of the black hole approaches the order of the higher dimensional Planck mass Mf, it stops radiating and yields a black hole remnant.

Achieving Energy Efficiency in Accordance with Bioclimatic Architecture Principles

Science.gov (United States)

Bajcinovci, Bujar; Jerliu, Florina

2016-12-01

By using our natural resources, and through inefficient use of energy, we produce much waste that can be recycled as a useful resource, which further contributes to climate change. This study aims to address energy effective bioclimatic architecture principles, by which we can achieve a potential energy savings, estimated at thirty-three per cent, mainly through environmentally affordable reconstruction, resulting in low negative impact on the environment. The study presented in this paper investigated the Ulpiana neighbourhood of Prishtina City, focusing on urban design challenges, energy efficiency and air pollution issues. The research methods consist of empirical observations through the urban spatial area using a comparative method, in order to receive clearer data and information research is conducted within Ulpiana's urban blocks, shapes of architectural structures, with the objective focusing on bioclimatic features in terms of the morphology and microclimate of Ulpiana. Energy supply plays a key role in the economic development of any country, hence, bioclimatic design principles for sustainable architecture and energy efficiency, present an evolutive integrated strategy for achieving efficiency and healthier conditions for Kosovar communities. Conceptual findings indicate that with the integrated design strategy: energy efficiency, and passive bioclimatic principles will result in a bond of complex interrelation between nature, architecture, and community. The aim of this study is to promote structured organized actions to be taken in Prishtina, and Kosovo, which will result in improved energy efficiency in all sectors, and particularly in the residential housing sector.

Achieving Energy Efficiency in Accordance with Bioclimatic Architecture Principles

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bajcinovci Bujar

2016-12-01

Full Text Available By using our natural resources, and through inefficient use of energy, we produce much waste that can be recycled as a useful resource, which further contributes to climate change. This study aims to address energy effective bioclimatic architecture principles, by which we can achieve a potential energy savings, estimated at thirty-three per cent, mainly through environmentally affordable reconstruction, resulting in low negative impact on the environment. The study presented in this paper investigated the Ulpiana neighbourhood of Prishtina City, focusing on urban design challenges, energy efficiency and air pollution issues. The research methods consist of empirical observations through the urban spatial area using a comparative method, in order to receive clearer data and information research is conducted within Ulpiana’s urban blocks, shapes of architectural structures, with the objective focusing on bioclimatic features in terms of the morphology and microclimate of Ulpiana. Energy supply plays a key role in the economic development of any country, hence, bioclimatic design principles for sustainable architecture and energy efficiency, present an evolutive integrated strategy for achieving efficiency and healthier conditions for Kosovar communities. Conceptual findings indicate that with the integrated design strategy: energy efficiency, and passive bioclimatic principles will result in a bond of complex interrelation between nature, architecture, and community. The aim of this study is to promote structured organized actions to be taken in Prishtina, and Kosovo, which will result in improved energy efficiency in all sectors, and particularly in the residential housing sector.

Life cycle assessment of thermal Waste-to-Energy technologies: Review and recommendations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Astrup, Thomas Fruergaard; Tonini, Davide; Turconi, Roberto

2015-01-01

composition, technology, gas cleaning, energy recovery, residue management, and inventory data), and (iii) modeling principles (e.g. energy/mass calculation principles, energy substitution, inclusion of capital goods and uncertainty evaluation). Very few of the published studies provided full and transparent...

High-pT Jet Energy Scale Uncertainty from single hadron response with the ATLAS detector

CERN Document Server

AUTHOR|(INSPIRE)INSPIRE-00534683; The ATLAS collaboration

2016-01-01

The jet energy scale (JES) uncertainty is estimated using different methods at different p$_\\text{T}$ ranges. In-situ techniques exploiting the p$_\\text{T}$ balance between a jet and a reference object (e.g. Z or gamma) are used at lower p$_\\text{T}$, but at very high p$_\\text{T}$ (> 2.5 TeV) there is not enough statistics for such in-situ techniques. A low JES uncertainty at high-p$_\\text{T}$ is important in several searches for new phenomena, e.g. the dijet resonance and angular searches. In the highest p$_\\text{T}$ range, the JES uncertainty is estimated using the calorimeter response to single hadrons. In this method, jets are treated as a superposition of energy depositions of single particles. An uncertainty is applied to each energy deposition belonging to the particles within the jet, and propagated to the final jet energy scale. This poster presents the JES uncertainty found with this method at sqrt(s) = 8 TeV and its developments.

Uncertainties in container failure time predictions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Williford, R.E.

1990-01-01

Stochastic variations in the local chemical environment of a geologic waste repository can cause corresponding variations in container corrosion rates and failure times, and thus in radionuclide release rates. This paper addresses how well the future variations in repository chemistries must be known in order to predict container failure times that are bounded by a finite time period within the repository lifetime. Preliminary results indicate that a 5000 year scatter in predicted container failure times requires that repository chemistries be known to within ±10% over the repository lifetime. These are small uncertainties compared to current estimates. 9 refs., 3 figs

Direct Characterization of Ultrafast Energy-Time Entangled Photon Pairs.

Science.gov (United States)

MacLean, Jean-Philippe W; Donohue, John M; Resch, Kevin J

2018-02-02

Energy-time entangled photons are critical in many quantum optical phenomena and have emerged as important elements in quantum information protocols. Entanglement in this degree of freedom often manifests itself on ultrafast time scales, making it very difficult to detect, whether one employs direct or interferometric techniques, as photon-counting detectors have insufficient time resolution. Here, we implement ultrafast photon counters based on nonlinear interactions and strong femtosecond laser pulses to probe energy-time entanglement in this important regime. Using this technique and single-photon spectrometers, we characterize all the spectral and temporal correlations of two entangled photons with femtosecond resolution. This enables the witnessing of energy-time entanglement using uncertainty relations and the direct observation of nonlocal dispersion cancellation on ultrafast time scales. These techniques are essential to understand and control the energy-time degree of freedom of light for ultrafast quantum optics.

Routine internal- and external-quality control data in clinical laboratories for estimating measurement and diagnostic uncertainty using GUM principles.

Science.gov (United States)

Magnusson, Bertil; Ossowicki, Haakan; Rienitz, Olaf; Theodorsson, Elvar

2012-05-01

Healthcare laboratories are increasingly joining into larger laboratory organizations encompassing several physical laboratories. This caters for important new opportunities for re-defining the concept of a 'laboratory' to encompass all laboratories and measurement methods measuring the same measurand for a population of patients. In order to make measurement results, comparable bias should be minimized or eliminated and measurement uncertainty properly evaluated for all methods used for a particular patient population. The measurement as well as diagnostic uncertainty can be evaluated from internal and external quality control results using GUM principles. In this paper the uncertainty evaluations are described in detail using only two main components, within-laboratory reproducibility and uncertainty of the bias component according to a Nordtest guideline. The evaluation is exemplified for the determination of creatinine in serum for a conglomerate of laboratories both expressed in absolute units (μmol/L) and relative (%). An expanded measurement uncertainty of 12 μmol/L associated with concentrations of creatinine below 120 μmol/L and of 10% associated with concentrations above 120 μmol/L was estimated. The diagnostic uncertainty encompasses both measurement uncertainty and biological variation, and can be estimated for a single value and for a difference. This diagnostic uncertainty for the difference for two samples from the same patient was determined to be 14 μmol/L associated with concentrations of creatinine below 100 μmol/L and 14 % associated with concentrations above 100 μmol/L.

Trans-Planckian Effects in Inflationary Cosmology and the Modified Uncertainty Principle

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

F. Hassan, S.; Sloth, Martin Snoager

2002-01-01

There are good indications that fundamental physics gives rise to a modified space-momentum uncertainty relation that implies the existence of a minimum length scale. We implement this idea in the scalar field theory that describes density perturbations in flat Robertson-Walker space-time. This l...

Strategic design of cost savings guarantee in energy performance contracting under uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Deng, Qianli; Jiang, Xianglin; Cui, Qingbin; Zhang, Limao

2015-01-01

Highlights: • A methodology is proposed to assist Energy Service Companies to maintain competitiveness in winning bids. • Uncertainties within the energy cost savings are modeled stochastically using the Monte-Carlo simulation. • A strategic energy savings guarantee design curve is derived, where all points return as appropriate guarantees. • A campus case is presented to demonstrate the applicability for finding appropriate guaranteed savings value. - Abstract: Among the key barriers to profit in Energy Performance Contracting (EPC) are uncertainties about attaining the realized energy cost savings and potential disputes over the guaranteed cost savings. In this paper, a methodology has been proposed to assist the Energy Service Company (ESCO): (1) to evaluate the risk threshold if the guarantee has already been made, and (2) to determine the guarantee design, if the guarantee has not been made yet, that not only promises the ESCO’s profitability from EPC but also maintains its competitiveness to win the bid. Uncertainties within the energy cost savings are modeled stochastically using Monte-Carlo simulation, taking both the energy price fluctuation and the facility performance variability into account. Based on that, a strategic energy savings guarantee design curve is derived, that all the points on it would return as appropriate guarantees. Finally, a campus case is presented to demonstrate the applicability for finding the appropriate guaranteed savings value. This method is also worth popularizing in similar performance-based projects

Identification of optimal strategies for energy management systems planning under multiple uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cai, Y.P.; Huang, G.H.; Yang, Z.F.; Tan, Q.

2009-01-01

Management of energy resources is crucial for many regions throughout the world. Many economic, environmental and political factors are having significant effects on energy management practices, leading to a variety of uncertainties in relevant decision making. The objective of this research is to identify optimal strategies in the planning of energy management systems under multiple uncertainties through the development of a fuzzy-random interval programming (FRIP) model. The method is based on an integration of the existing interval linear programming (ILP), superiority-inferiority-based fuzzy-stochastic programming (SI-FSP) and mixed integer linear programming (MILP). Such a FRIP model allows multiple uncertainties presented as interval values, possibilistic and probabilistic distributions, as well as their combinations within a general optimization framework. It can also be used for facilitating capacity-expansion planning of energy-production facilities within a multi-period and multi-option context. Complexities in energy management systems can be systematically reflected, thus applicability of the modeling process can be highly enhanced. The developed method has then been applied to a case of long-term energy management planning for a region with three cities. Useful solutions for the planning of energy management systems were generated. Interval solutions associated with different risk levels of constraint violation were obtained. They could be used for generating decision alternatives and thus help decision makers identify desired policies under various economic and system-reliability constraints. The solutions can also provide desired energy resource/service allocation and capacity-expansion plans with a minimized system cost, a maximized system reliability and a maximized energy security. Tradeoffs between system costs and constraint-violation risks could be successfully tackled, i.e., higher costs will increase system stability, while a desire for lower

Uncertainty Propagation Analysis for the Monte Carlo Time-Dependent Simulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shaukata, Nadeem; Shim, Hyung Jin

2015-01-01

In this paper, a conventional method to control the neutron population for super-critical systems is implemented. Instead of considering the cycles, the simulation is divided in time intervals. At the end of each time interval, neutron population control is applied on the banked neutrons. Randomly selected neutrons are discarded, until the size of neutron population matches the initial neutron histories at the beginning of time simulation. A time-dependent simulation mode has also been implemented in the development version of SERPENT 2 Monte Carlo code. In this mode, sequential population control mechanism has been proposed for modeling of prompt super-critical systems. A Monte Carlo method has been properly used in TART code for dynamic criticality calculations. For super-critical systems, the neutron population is allowed to grow over a period of time. The neutron population is uniformly combed to return it to the neutron population started with at the beginning of time boundary. In this study, conventional time-dependent Monte Carlo (TDMC) algorithm is implemented. There is an exponential growth of neutron population in estimation of neutron density tally for super-critical systems and the number of neutrons being tracked exceed the memory of the computer. In order to control this exponential growth at the end of each time boundary, a conventional time cut-off controlling population strategy is included in TDMC. A scale factor is introduced to tally the desired neutron density at the end of each time boundary. The main purpose of this paper is the quantification of uncertainty propagation in neutron densities at the end of each time boundary for super-critical systems. This uncertainty is caused by the uncertainty resulting from the introduction of scale factor. The effectiveness of TDMC is examined for one-group infinite homogeneous problem (the rod model) and two-group infinite homogeneous problem. The desired neutron density is tallied by the introduction of

Uncertainty Propagation Analysis for the Monte Carlo Time-Dependent Simulations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shaukata, Nadeem; Shim, Hyung Jin [Seoul National University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2015-10-15

In this paper, a conventional method to control the neutron population for super-critical systems is implemented. Instead of considering the cycles, the simulation is divided in time intervals. At the end of each time interval, neutron population control is applied on the banked neutrons. Randomly selected neutrons are discarded, until the size of neutron population matches the initial neutron histories at the beginning of time simulation. A time-dependent simulation mode has also been implemented in the development version of SERPENT 2 Monte Carlo code. In this mode, sequential population control mechanism has been proposed for modeling of prompt super-critical systems. A Monte Carlo method has been properly used in TART code for dynamic criticality calculations. For super-critical systems, the neutron population is allowed to grow over a period of time. The neutron population is uniformly combed to return it to the neutron population started with at the beginning of time boundary. In this study, conventional time-dependent Monte Carlo (TDMC) algorithm is implemented. There is an exponential growth of neutron population in estimation of neutron density tally for super-critical systems and the number of neutrons being tracked exceed the memory of the computer. In order to control this exponential growth at the end of each time boundary, a conventional time cut-off controlling population strategy is included in TDMC. A scale factor is introduced to tally the desired neutron density at the end of each time boundary. The main purpose of this paper is the quantification of uncertainty propagation in neutron densities at the end of each time boundary for super-critical systems. This uncertainty is caused by the uncertainty resulting from the introduction of scale factor. The effectiveness of TDMC is examined for one-group infinite homogeneous problem (the rod model) and two-group infinite homogeneous problem. The desired neutron density is tallied by the introduction of

Collaboration patterns, external shocks and uncertainty: Swiss nuclear energy politics before and after Fukushima

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fischer, Manuel

2015-01-01

Energy shocks like the Fukushima accident can have important political consequences. This article examines their impact on collaboration patterns between collective actors in policy processes. It argues that external shocks create both behavioral uncertainty, meaning that actors do not know about other actors’ preferences, and policy uncertainty on the choice and consequences of policy instruments. The context of uncertainty interacts with classical drivers of actor collaboration in policy processes. The analysis is based on a dataset comprising interview and survey data on political actors in two subsequent policy processes in Switzerland and Exponential Random Graph Models for network data. Results first show that under uncertainty, collaboration of actors in policy processes is less based on similar preferences than in stable contexts, but trust and knowledge of other actors are more important. Second, under uncertainty, scientific actors are not preferred collaboration partners. - Highlights: • Energy shocks create uncertainty in policy processes. • Behavioral and policy uncertainty have influence actors’ collaboration patterns. • Under uncertainty, collaboration is based on trust rather than on similar preferences. • Under uncertainty, scientific actors are not preferred collaboration partners, but are active themselves.

Few group collapsing of covariance matrix data based on a conservation principle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hiruta, H.; Palmiotti, G.; Salvatores, M.; Arcilla, R. Jr.; Oblozinsky, P.; McKnight, R.D.

2008-01-01

A new algorithm for a rigorous collapsing of covariance data is proposed, derived, implemented, and tested. The method is based on a conservation principle that allows preserving at a broad energy group structure the uncertainty calculated in a fine group energy structure for a specific integral parameter, using as weights the associated sensitivity coefficients

Uncertainty Quantification of the Reverse Taylor Impact Test and Localized Asynchronous Space-Time Algorithm

Science.gov (United States)

Subber, Waad; Salvadori, Alberto; Lee, Sangmin; Matous, Karel

2017-06-01

The reverse Taylor impact is a common experiment to investigate the dynamical response of materials at high strain rates. To better understand the physical phenomena and to provide a platform for code validation and Uncertainty Quantification (UQ), a co-designed simulation and experimental paradigm is investigated. For validation under uncertainty, quantities of interest (QOIs) within subregions of the computational domain are introduced. For such simulations where regions of interest can be identified, the computational cost for UQ can be reduced by confining the random variability within these regions of interest. This observation inspired us to develop an asynchronous space and time computational algorithm with localized UQ. In the region of interest, the high resolution space and time discretization schemes are used for a stochastic model. Apart from the region of interest, low spatial and temporal resolutions are allowed for a stochastic model with low dimensional representation of uncertainty. The model is exercised on the linear elastodynamics and shows a potential in reducing the UQ computational cost. Although, we consider wave prorogation in solid, the proposed framework is general and can be used for fluid flow problems as well. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration (PSAAP-II).

Comprehensive neutron cross-section and secondary energy distribution uncertainty analysis for a fusion reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gerstl, S.A.W.; LaBauve, R.J.; Young, P.G.

1980-05-01

On the example of General Atomic's well-documented Power Generating Fusion Reactor (PGFR) design, this report exercises a comprehensive neutron cross-section and secondary energy distribution (SED) uncertainty analysis. The LASL sensitivity and uncertainty analysis code SENSIT is used to calculate reaction cross-section sensitivity profiles and integral SED sensitivity coefficients. These are then folded with covariance matrices and integral SED uncertainties to obtain the resulting uncertainties of three calculated neutronics design parameters: two critical radiation damage rates and a nuclear heating rate. The report documents the first sensitivity-based data uncertainty analysis, which incorporates a quantitative treatment of the effects of SED uncertainties. The results demonstrate quantitatively that the ENDF/B-V cross-section data files for C, H, and O, including their SED data, are fully adequate for this design application, while the data for Fe and Ni are at best marginally adequate because they give rise to response uncertainties up to 25%. Much higher response uncertainties are caused by cross-section and SED data uncertainties in Cu (26 to 45%), tungsten (24 to 54%), and Cr (up to 98%). Specific recommendations are given for re-evaluations of certain reaction cross-sections, secondary energy distributions, and uncertainty estimates

Determining the minimal length scale of the generalized uncertainty principle from the entropy-area relationship

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Wontae; Oh, John J.

2008-01-01

We derive the formula of the black hole entropy with a minimal length of the Planck size by counting quantum modes of scalar fields in the vicinity of the black hole horizon, taking into account the generalized uncertainty principle (GUP). This formula is applied to some intriguing examples of black holes - the Schwarzschild black hole, the Reissner-Nordstrom black hole, and the magnetically charged dilatonic black hole. As a result, it is shown that the GUP parameter can be determined by imposing the black hole entropy-area relationship, which has a Planck length scale and a universal form within the near-horizon expansion

Quantum Uncertainty and Fundamental Interactions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tosto S.

2013-04-01

Full Text Available The paper proposes a simplified theoretical approach to infer some essential concepts on the fundamental interactions between charged particles and their relative strengths at comparable energies by exploiting the quantum uncertainty only. The worth of the present approach relies on the way of obtaining the results, rather than on the results themselves: concepts today acknowledged as fingerprints of the electroweak and strong interactions appear indeed rooted in the same theoretical frame including also the basic principles of special and general relativity along with the gravity force.

Application of the MHD energy principle to magnetostatic atmospheres

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zweibel, E.G.

1984-11-01

We apply the MHD energy principle to the stability of a magnetized atmosphere which is bounded below by much denser fluid, as is the solar corona. We treat the two fluids as ideal; the approximation which is consistent with the energy principle, and use the dynamical conditions that must hold at a fluid-fluid interface to show that if vertical displacements of the lower boundary are permitted, then the lower atmosphere must be perturbed as well. However, displacements which do not perturb the coronal boundary can be properly treated as isolated perturbations of the corona alone

The Impact of Economic Parameter Uncertainty Growth on Regional Energy Demand Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Olga Vasilyevna Mazurova

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The article deals with the forecasting studies based on the energy demand and prices in the region in terms of the complex interconnections between economy (and energy and the growth of uncertainty of the future development of the country and territories. The authors propose a methodological approach, which combines the assessment of the price elasticity of energy demand with the optimization of energy and fuel regional supply. In this case, the price elasticity of demand is determined taking into account the comparison of cost-effectiveness of using different types of fuel and energy by different consumers. The originality of the proposed approach consists in simulating the behaviour of suppliers’ (energy companies and large customers’ (power plants, boiler rooms, industry, transport, population depending on energy price changes, the existing and new technologies, energy-saving activities and restrictions on fuel supplies. To take into account the uncertainty of future economic and energy conditions, some parameters such as prospective technical and economic parameters, price, technological parameters are set as the intervals of possible values with different probability levels. This approach allows making multivariate studies with different combinations of the expected conditions and receiving as a result the range of the projected values of studied indicators. The multivariate calculations show that the fuel demand has a nonlinear dependence on the consumer characteristics, pricing, projection horizon, and the nature of the future conditions uncertainty. The authors have shown that this effect can be significant and should be considered in the forecasts of the development of fuel and energy sector. The methodological approach and quantitative evaluation can be used to improve the economic and energy development strategies of the country and regions

Uncertainties in modeling and scaling in the prediction of fuel stored energy and thermal response

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wulff, W.

1987-01-01

The steady-state temperature distribution and the stored energy in nuclear fuel elements are computed by analytical methods and used to rank, in the order of importance, the effects on stored energy from statistical uncertainties in modeling parameters, in boundary and in operating conditions. An integral technique is used to calculate the transient fuel temperature and to estimate the uncertainties in predicting the fuel thermal response and the peak clad temperature during a large-break loss of coolant accident. The uncertainty analysis presented here is an important part of evaluating the applicability, the uncertainties and the scaling capabilities of computer codes for nuclear reactor safety analyses. The methods employed in this analysis merit general attention because of their simplicity. It is shown that the blowdown peak is dominated by fuel stored energy alone or, equivalently, by linear heating rate. Gap conductance, peaking factors and fuel thermal conductivity are the three most important fuel modeling parameters affecting peak clad temperature uncertainty. 26 refs., 10 figs., 6 tabs

The certainty principle (review)

OpenAIRE

Arbatsky, D. A.

2006-01-01

The certainty principle (2005) allowed to conceptualize from the more fundamental grounds both the Heisenberg uncertainty principle (1927) and the Mandelshtam-Tamm relation (1945). In this review I give detailed explanation and discussion of the certainty principle, oriented to all physicists, both theorists and experimenters.

Fisher information, kinetic energy and uncertainty relation inequalities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luo Shunlong

2002-01-01

By interpolating between Fisher information and mechanical kinetic energy, we introduce a general notion of kinetic energy with respect to a parameter of Schroedinger wavefunctions from a statistical inference perspective. Kinetic energy is the sum of Fisher information and an integral of a parametrized analogue of quantum mechanical current density related to phase. A family of integral inequalities concerning kinetic energy and moments are established, among which the Cramer-Rao inequality and the Weyl-Heisenberg inequality, are special cases. In particular, the integral inequalities involving the negative order moments are relevant to the study of electron systems. Moreover, by specifying the parameter to a scale, we obtain a family of inequalities of uncertainty relation type which incorporate the position and momentum observables symmetrically in a single quantity. (author)

Energy supply planning in Iran by using fuzzy linear programming approach (regarding uncertainties of investment costs)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sadeghi, Mehdi; Mirshojaeian Hosseini, Hossein

2006-01-01

For many years, energy models have been used in developed or developing countries to satisfy different needs in energy planning. One of major problems against energy planning and consequently energy models is uncertainty, spread in different economic, political and legal dimensions of energy planning. Confronting uncertainty, energy planners have often used two well-known strategies. The first strategy is stochastic programming, in which energy system planners define different scenarios and apply an explicit probability of occurrence to each scenario. The second strategy is Minimax Regret strategy that minimizes regrets of different decisions made in energy planning. Although these strategies have been used extensively, they could not flexibly and effectively deal with the uncertainties caused by fuzziness. 'Fuzzy Linear Programming (FLP)' is a strategy that can take fuzziness into account. This paper tries to demonstrate the method of application of FLP for optimization of supply energy system in Iran, as a case study. The used FLP model comprises fuzzy coefficients for investment costs. Following the mentioned purpose, it is realized that FLP is an easy and flexible approach that can be a serious competitor for other confronting uncertainties approaches, i.e. stochastic and Minimax Regret strategies. (author)

Output gap uncertainty and real-time monetary policy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Francesco Grigoli

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Output gap estimates are subject to a wide range of uncertainty owing principally to the difficulty in distinguishing between cycle and trend in real time. We show that country desks tend to overestimate economic slack, especially during recessions, and that uncertainty in initial output gap estimates persists several years. Only a small share of output gap revisions is predictable based on output dynamics, data quality, and policy frameworks. We also show that for a group of Latin American inflation targeters the prescriptions from monetary policy rules are subject to large changes due to revised output gap estimates. These explain a sizable proportion of the deviation of inflation from target, suggesting this information is not accounted for in real-time policy decisions.

A time of flight detector for high energy heavy particles

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fang, Z.; O`Connor, D.J. [Newcastle Univ., NSW (Australia). Dept. of Physics

1993-12-31

As a commonly used method to measure the energy of a particle with known mass, the flight time of the particle travelling over a certain distance is measured. A detector based on this principle is called a time-of-flight (TOF) detector which has attracted interests constantly during the last 15 years. For high energy heavy particle energy detection, TOF detector is an appropriated choice and such a system, developed recently, is described in this paper. 8 refs., 3 figs.

A time of flight detector for high energy heavy particles

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fang, Z; O` Connor, D J [Newcastle Univ., NSW (Australia). Dept. of Physics

1994-12-31

As a commonly used method to measure the energy of a particle with known mass, the flight time of the particle travelling over a certain distance is measured. A detector based on this principle is called a time-of-flight (TOF) detector which has attracted interests constantly during the last 15 years. For high energy heavy particle energy detection, TOF detector is an appropriated choice and such a system, developed recently, is described in this paper. 8 refs., 3 figs.

Uncertainty and sensitivity results for pre-waste-emplacement groundwater travel time

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaplan, P.G.

1992-01-01

In this paper uncertainty and sensitivity analyses for pre-waste-emplacement groundwater travel time conducted. Although preliminary, a numbed of interesting results were obtained. Uncertainty in the ground water travel time statistics, as measured by the coefficient of variation, increases and then decrease as the modeled system transitions from matrix-dominated to fracture-dominated flow. The uncertainty analysis also suggests that the median, as opposed to the mean, may be a better indicator of performance with respect to the regulatory criterion. The sensitivity analysis shows a strong correlation between an effective fracture property, fracture porosity, and failure to meet the regulatory pre-waste-emplacement groundwater travel time criterion of 1,000 years

Planning nuclear energy centers under technological and demand uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meier, P.M.; Palmedo, P.F.

1976-01-01

The question considered is whether new nuclear power plants should be located in nuclear energy centers, or ''power parks'' with co-located fabrication and reprocessing facilities. That issue has been addressed in a recent study by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and remains under investigation at Brookhaven and elsewhere. So far, however, the advisability of this policy has been analyzed primarily within the framework of a single view of the future. Suggestions of the types of questions that should be asked regarding this policy if it is properly to be viewed as an example of decision making under uncertainty are made. It is concluded that ''A consideration of the various uncertainties involved in the question of dispersed vs. remote siting of energy facilities introduces a number of new elements into the analysis. On balance those considerations provide somewhat greater support for the clustered concept. The NEC approach seems to provide somewhat greater flexibility in accomodating possible future electricity generating technologies. Increased regulatory and construction efficiencies possible in an NEC reduces the impact of demand uncertainty as does the lower costs associated with construction acceleration or deceleration.'' It is also noted that, in the final analysis, ''it is the public's perception of the relative costs and benefits of a measure that determine the acceptability or unacceptability of a particular innovation,'' not the engineer's cost/benefit analysis. It is further noted that if the analysis can identify limits on analytical methods and models, it will not make the job of energy decision-making any easier, but it may make the process more responsive to its impact on society

Energy levels of one-dimensional systems satisfying the minimal length uncertainty relation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bernardo, Reginald Christian S., E-mail: rcbernardo@nip.upd.edu.ph; Esguerra, Jose Perico H., E-mail: jesguerra@nip.upd.edu.ph

2016-10-15

The standard approach to calculating the energy levels for quantum systems satisfying the minimal length uncertainty relation is to solve an eigenvalue problem involving a fourth- or higher-order differential equation in quasiposition space. It is shown that the problem can be reformulated so that the energy levels of these systems can be obtained by solving only a second-order quasiposition eigenvalue equation. Through this formulation the energy levels are calculated for the following potentials: particle in a box, harmonic oscillator, Pöschl–Teller well, Gaussian well, and double-Gaussian well. For the particle in a box, the second-order quasiposition eigenvalue equation is a second-order differential equation with constant coefficients. For the harmonic oscillator, Pöschl–Teller well, Gaussian well, and double-Gaussian well, a method that involves using Wronskians has been used to solve the second-order quasiposition eigenvalue equation. It is observed for all of these quantum systems that the introduction of a nonzero minimal length uncertainty induces a positive shift in the energy levels. It is shown that the calculation of energy levels in systems satisfying the minimal length uncertainty relation is not limited to a small number of problems like particle in a box and the harmonic oscillator but can be extended to a wider class of problems involving potentials such as the Pöschl–Teller and Gaussian wells.

Bayesian uncertainty analyses of probabilistic risk models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pulkkinen, U.

1989-01-01

Applications of Bayesian principles to the uncertainty analyses are discussed in the paper. A short review of the most important uncertainties and their causes is provided. An application of the principle of maximum entropy to the determination of Bayesian prior distributions is described. An approach based on so called probabilistic structures is presented in order to develop a method of quantitative evaluation of modelling uncertainties. The method is applied to a small example case. Ideas for application areas for the proposed method are discussed

First-Principles Definition and Measurement of Planetary Electromagnetic-Energy Budget

Science.gov (United States)

Mishchenko, Michael I.; Lock, James A.; Lacis, Andrew A.; Travis, Larry D.; Cairns, Brian

2016-01-01

The imperative to quantify the Earths electromagnetic-energy budget with an extremely high accuracy has been widely recognized but has never been formulated in the framework of fundamental physics. In this paper we give a first-principles definition of the planetary electromagnetic-energy budget using the Poynting- vector formalism and discuss how it can, in principle, be measured. Our derivation is based on an absolute minimum of theoretical assumptions, is free of outdated notions of phenomenological radiometry, and naturally leads to the conceptual formulation of an instrument called the double hemispherical cavity radiometer (DHCR). The practical measurement of the planetary energy budget would require flying a constellation of several dozen planet-orbiting satellites hosting identical well-calibrated DHCRs.

A risk-averse optimization model for trading wind energy in a market environment under uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pousinho, H.M.I.; Mendes, V.M.F.; Catalao, J.P.S.

2011-01-01

In this paper, a stochastic programming approach is proposed for trading wind energy in a market environment under uncertainty. Uncertainty in the energy market prices is the main cause of high volatility of profits achieved by power producers. The volatile and intermittent nature of wind energy represents another source of uncertainty. Hence, each uncertain parameter is modeled by scenarios, where each scenario represents a plausible realization of the uncertain parameters with an associated occurrence probability. Also, an appropriate risk measurement is considered. The proposed approach is applied on a realistic case study, based on a wind farm in Portugal. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn. -- Highlights: → We model uncertainties on energy market prices and wind power production. → A hybrid intelligent approach generates price-wind power scenarios. → Risk aversion is also incorporated in the proposed stochastic programming approach. → A realistic case study, based on a wind farm in Portugal, is provided. → Our approach allows selecting the best solution according to the desired risk exposure level.

Uncertainty in the classroom—teaching quantum physics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johansson, K E; Milstead, D

2008-01-01

The teaching of the Heisenberg uncertainty principle provides one of those rare moments when science appears to contradict everyday life experiences, sparking the curiosity of the interested student. Written at a level appropriate for an able high school student, this article provides ideas for introducing the uncertainty principle and showing how it can be used to elucidate many topics in modern physics

Estimation of high-pT Jet Energy Scale Uncertainty from single hadron response with the ATLAS detector

CERN Document Server

AUTHOR|(INSPIRE)INSPIRE-00534683; The ATLAS collaboration

2016-01-01

The jet energy scale (JES) uncertainty is estimated using different methods at different pT ranges. In situ techniques exploiting the pT balance between a jet and a reference object (e.g. Z or gamma) are used at lower pT, but at very high pT (> 2.5 TeV) there is not enough statistics for in-situ techniques. The JES uncertainty at high-pT is important in several searches for new phenomena, e.g. the dijet resonance and angular searches. In the highest pT range, the JES uncertainty is estimated using the calorimeter response to single hadrons. In this method, jets are treated as a superposition of energy depositions of single particles. An uncertainty is applied to each energy depositions belonging to the particles within the jet, and propagated to the final jet energy scale. This poster presents the JES uncertainty found with this method at sqrt(s) = 8 TeV and its developments.

Wind Energy Management System EMS Integration Project: Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

2010-01-01

The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind and solar power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation), and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind/solar forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. To improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators’ forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter

Nuclear Energy Principles, Practices, and Prospects

CERN Document Server

Bodansky, David

2008-01-01

The world faces serious difficulties in obtaining the energy that will be needed in coming decades for a growing population, especially given the problem of climate change caused by fossil fuel use. This book presents a view of nuclear energy as an important carbon-free energy option. It discusses the nuclear fuel cycle, the types of reactors used today and proposed for the future, nuclear waste disposal, reactor accidents and reactor safety, nuclear weapon proliferation, and the cost of electric power. To provide background for these discussions, the book begins with chapters on the history of the development and use of nuclear energy, the health effects of ionizing radiation, and the basic physics principles of reactor operation. The text has been rewritten and substantially expanded for this edition, to reflect changes that have taken place in the eight years since the publication of the first edition and to provide greater coverage of key topics. These include the Yucca Mountain repository plans, designs ...

Quantum principles and particles

CERN Document Server

Wilcox, Walter

2012-01-01

QUANTUM PRINCIPLESPerspective and PrinciplesPrelude to Quantum MechanicsStern-Gerlach Experiment Idealized Stern-Gerlach ResultsClassical Model AttemptsWave Functions for Two Physical-Outcome CaseProcess Diagrams, Operators, and Completeness Further Properties of Operators/ModulationOperator ReformulationOperator RotationBra-Ket Notation/Basis StatesTransition AmplitudesThree-Magnet Setup Example-CoherenceHermitian ConjugationUnitary OperatorsA Very Special OperatorMatrix RepresentationsMatrix Wave Function RecoveryExpectation ValuesWrap Up ProblemsFree Particles in One DimensionPhotoelectric EffectCompton EffectUncertainty Relation for PhotonsStability of Ground StatesBohr ModelFourier Transform and Uncertainty RelationsSchrödinger EquationSchrödinger Equation ExampleDirac Delta FunctionsWave Functions and ProbabilityProbability CurrentTime Separable SolutionsCompleteness for Particle StatesParticle Operator PropertiesOperator RulesTime Evolution and Expectation ValuesWrap-UpProblemsSome One-Dimensional So...

Medium-term energy hub management subject to electricity price and wind uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Najafi, Arsalan; Falaghi, Hamid; Contreras, Javier; Ramezani, Maryam

2016-01-01

Highlights: • A new model for medium-term energy hub management is proposed. • Risk aversion is considered in medium-term energy hub management. • Stochastic programing is used to solve the medium-term energy hub management problem. • Electricity price and wind uncertainty are considered. - Abstract: Energy hubs play an important role in implementing multi-carrier energy systems. More studies are required in both their modeling and operating aspects. In this regard, this paper attempts to develop medium-term management of an energy hub in restructured power systems. A model is presented to manage an energy hub which has electrical energy and natural gas as inputs and electrical and heat energy as outputs. Electricity is procured in various ways, either purchasing it from a pool-based market and bilateral contracts, or producing it from a Combined Heat and Power (CHP) unit, a diesel generator unit and Wind Turbine Generators (WTGs). Pool prices and wind turbine production are subject to uncertainty, which makes energy management a complex puzzle. Heat demand is also procured by a furnace and a CHP unit. Energy hub managers should make decisions whether to purchase electricity from the electricity market and gas from the gas network or to produce electricity using a set of generators to meet the electrical and heat demands in the presence of uncertainties. The energy management objective is to minimize the total cost subject to several technical constraints using stochastic programming. Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR), a well-known risk measure, is used to reduce the unfavorable risk of costs. In doing so, the proposed model is illustrated using a sample test case with actual prices, load and wind speed data. The results show that the minimum cost is obtained by the best decisions involving the electricity market and purchasing natural gas for gas facilities. Considering risk also increases the total expected cost and decreases the CVaR.

(Un)certainty in climate change impacts on global energy consumption

Science.gov (United States)

van Ruijven, B. J.; De Cian, E.; Sue Wing, I.

2017-12-01

Climate change is expected to have an influence on the energy sector, especially on energy demand. For many locations, this change in energy demand is a balance between increase of demand for space cooling and a decrease of space heating demand. We perform a large-scale uncertainty analysis to characterize climate change risk on energy consumption as driven by climate and socioeconomic uncertainty. We combine a dynamic econometric model1 with multiple realizations of temperature projections from all 21 CMIP5 models (from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections2) under moderate (RCP4.5) and vigorous (RCP8.5) warming. Global spatial population projections for five SSPs are combined with GDP projections to construct scenarios for future energy demand driven by socioeconomic change. Between the climate models, we find a median global increase in climate-related energy demand of around 24% by 2050 under RCP8.5 with an interquartile range of 18-38%. Most climate models agree on increases in energy demand of more than 25% or 50% in tropical regions, the Southern USA and Southern China (see Figure). With respect to socioeconomic scenarios, we find wide variations between the SSPs for the number of people in low-income countries who are exposed to increases in energy demand. Figure attached: Number of models that agree on total climate-related energy consumption to increase or decrease by more than 0, 10, 25 or 50% by 2050 under RCP8.5 and SSP5 as result of the CMIP5 ensemble of temperature projections. References1. De Cian, E. & Sue Wing, I. Global Energy Demand in a Warming Climate. (FEEM, 2016). 2. Thrasher, B., Maurer, E. P., McKellar, C. & Duffy, P. B. Technical Note: Bias correcting climate model simulated daily temperature extremes with quantile mapping. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 16, 3309-3314 (2012).

Single hadron response measurement and calorimeter jet energy scale uncertainty with the ATLAS detector at the LHC

CERN Document Server

Aad, Georges; Abdallah, Jalal; Abdelalim, Ahmed Ali; Abdesselam, Abdelouahab; Abdinov, Ovsat; Abi, Babak; Abolins, Maris; AbouZeid, Ossama; Abramowicz, Halina; Abreu, Henso; Acerbi, Emilio; Acharya, Bobby Samir; Adamczyk, Leszek; Adams, David; Addy, Tetteh; Adelman, Jahred; Aderholz, Michael; Adomeit, Stefanie; Adragna, Paolo; Adye, Tim; Aefsky, Scott; Aguilar-Saavedra, Juan Antonio; Aharrouche, Mohamed; Ahlen, Steven; Ahles, Florian; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Ahsan, Mahsana; Aielli, Giulio; Akdogan, Taylan; Åkesson, Torsten Paul Ake; Akimoto, Ginga; Akimov, Andrei; Akiyama, Kunihiro; Alam, Mohammad; Alam, Muhammad Aftab; Albert, Justin; Albrand, Solveig; Aleksa, Martin; Aleksandrov, Igor; Alessandria, Franco; Alexa, Calin; Alexander, Gideon; Alexandre, Gauthier; Alexopoulos, Theodoros; Alhroob, Muhammad; Aliev, Malik; Alimonti, Gianluca; Alison, John; Aliyev, Magsud; Allbrooke, Benedict; Allport, Phillip; Allwood-Spiers, Sarah; Almond, John; Aloisio, Alberto; Alon, Raz; Alonso, Alejandro; Alvarez Gonzalez, Barbara; Alviggi, Mariagrazia; Amako, Katsuya; Amaral, Pedro; Amelung, Christoph; Ammosov, Vladimir; Amorim, Antonio; Amorós, Gabriel; Amram, Nir; Anastopoulos, Christos; Ancu, Lucian Stefan; Andari, Nansi; Andeen, Timothy; Anders, Christoph Falk; Anders, Gabriel; Anderson, Kelby; Andreazza, Attilio; Andrei, George Victor; Andrieux, Marie-Laure; Anduaga, Xabier; Angerami, Aaron; Anghinolfi, Francis; Anisenkov, Alexey; Anjos, Nuno; Annovi, Alberto; Antonaki, Ariadni; Antonelli, Mario; Antonov, Alexey; Antos, Jaroslav; Anulli, Fabio; Aoun, Sahar; Aperio Bella, Ludovica; Apolle, Rudi; Arabidze, Giorgi; Aracena, Ignacio; Arai, Yasuo; Arce, Ayana; Arfaoui, Samir; Arguin, Jean-Francois; Arik, Engin; Arik, Metin; Armbruster, Aaron James; Arnaez, Olivier; Arnault, Christian; Artamonov, Andrei; Artoni, Giacomo; Arutinov, David; Asai, Shoji; Asfandiyarov, Ruslan; Ask, Stefan; Åsman, Barbro; Asquith, Lily; Assamagan, Ketevi; Astbury, Alan; Astvatsatourov, Anatoli; Aubert, Bernard; Auge, Etienne; Augsten, Kamil; Aurousseau, Mathieu; Avolio, Giuseppe; Avramidou, Rachel Maria; Axen, David; Ay, Cano; Azuelos, Georges; Azuma, Yuya; Baak, Max; Baccaglioni, Giuseppe; Bacci, Cesare; Bach, Andre; Bachacou, Henri; Bachas, Konstantinos; Backes, Moritz; Backhaus, Malte; Badescu, Elisabeta; Bagnaia, Paolo; Bahinipati, Seema; Bai, Yu; Bailey, David; Bain, Travis; Baines, John; Baker, Oliver Keith; Baker, Mark; Baker, Sarah; Banas, Elzbieta; Banerjee, Piyali; Banerjee, Swagato; Banfi, Danilo; Bangert, Andrea Michelle; Bansal, Vikas; Bansil, Hardeep Singh; Barak, Liron; Baranov, Sergei; Barashkou, Andrei; Barbaro Galtieri, Angela; Barber, Tom; Barberio, Elisabetta Luigia; Barberis, Dario; Barbero, Marlon; Bardin, Dmitri; Barillari, Teresa; Barisonzi, Marcello; Barklow, Timothy; Barlow, Nick; Barnett, Bruce; Barnett, Michael; Baroncelli, Antonio; Barone, Gaetano; Barr, Alan; Barreiro, Fernando; Barreiro Guimarães da Costa, João; Barrillon, Pierre; Bartoldus, Rainer; Barton, Adam Edward; Bartsch, Valeria; Bates, Richard; Batkova, Lucia; Batley, Richard; Battaglia, Andreas; Battistin, Michele; Bauer, Florian; Bawa, Harinder Singh; Beale, Steven; Beau, Tristan; Beauchemin, Pierre-Hugues; Beccherle, Roberto; Bechtle, Philip; Beck, Hans Peter; Becker, Sebastian; Beckingham, Matthew; Becks, Karl-Heinz; Beddall, Andrew; Beddall, Ayda; Bedikian, Sourpouhi; Bednyakov, Vadim; Bee, Christopher; Begel, Michael; Behar Harpaz, Silvia; Behera, Prafulla; Beimforde, Michael; Belanger-Champagne, Camille; Bell, Paul; Bell, William; Bella, Gideon; Bellagamba, Lorenzo; Bellina, Francesco; Bellomo, Massimiliano; Belloni, Alberto; Beloborodova, Olga; Belotskiy, Konstantin; Beltramello, Olga; Ben Ami, Sagi; Benary, Odette; Benchekroun, Driss; Benchouk, Chafik; Bendel, Markus; Benekos, Nektarios; Benhammou, Yan; Benhar Noccioli, Eleonora; Benitez Garcia, Jorge-Armando; Benjamin, Douglas; Benoit, Mathieu; Bensinger, James; Benslama, Kamal; Bentvelsen, Stan; Berge, David; Bergeaas Kuutmann, Elin; Berger, Nicolas; Berghaus, Frank; Berglund, Elina; Beringer, Jürg; Bernat, Pauline; Bernhard, Ralf; Bernius, Catrin; Berry, Tracey; Bertella, Claudia; Bertin, Antonio; Bertinelli, Francesco; Bertolucci, Federico; Besana, Maria Ilaria; Besson, Nathalie; Bethke, Siegfried; Bhimji, Wahid; Bianchi, Riccardo-Maria; Bianco, Michele; Biebel, Otmar; Bieniek, Stephen Paul; Bierwagen, Katharina; Biesiada, Jed; Biglietti, Michela; Bilokon, Halina; Bindi, Marcello; Binet, Sebastien; Bingul, Ahmet; Bini, Cesare; Biscarat, Catherine; Bitenc, Urban; Black, Kevin; Blair, Robert; Blanchard, Jean-Baptiste; Blanchot, Georges; Blazek, Tomas; Blocker, Craig; Blocki, Jacek; Blondel, Alain; Blum, Walter; Blumenschein, Ulrike; Bobbink, Gerjan; Bobrovnikov, Victor; Bocchetta, Simona Serena; Bocci, Andrea; Boddy, Christopher Richard; Boehler, Michael; Boek, Jennifer; Boelaert, Nele; Bogaerts, Joannes Andreas; Bogdanchikov, Alexander; Bogouch, Andrei; Bohm, Christian; Boisvert, Veronique; Bold, Tomasz; Boldea, Venera; Bolnet, Nayanka Myriam; Bona, Marcella; Bondarenko, Valery; Bondioli, Mario; Boonekamp, Maarten; Booth, Chris; Bordoni, Stefania; Borer, Claudia; Borisov, Anatoly; Borissov, Guennadi; Borjanovic, Iris; Borri, Marcello; Borroni, Sara; Bortolotto, Valerio; Bos, Kors; Boscherini, Davide; Bosman, Martine; Boterenbrood, Hendrik; Botterill, David; Bouchami, Jihene; Boudreau, Joseph; Bouhova-Thacker, Evelina Vassileva; Boumediene, Djamel Eddine; Bourdarios, Claire; Bousson, Nicolas; Boveia, Antonio; Boyd, James; Boyko, Igor; Bozhko, Nikolay; Bozovic-Jelisavcic, Ivanka; Bracinik, Juraj; Braem, André; Branchini, Paolo; Brandenburg, George; Brandt, Andrew; Brandt, Gerhard; Brandt, Oleg; Bratzler, Uwe; Brau, Benjamin; Brau, James; Braun, Helmut; Brelier, Bertrand; Bremer, Johan; Brenner, Richard; Bressler, Shikma; Britton, Dave; Brochu, Frederic; Brock, Ian; Brock, Raymond; Brodbeck, Timothy; Brodet, Eyal; Broggi, Francesco; Bromberg, Carl; Bronner, Johanna; Brooijmans, Gustaaf; Brooks, William; Brown, Gareth; Brown, Heather; Bruckman de Renstrom, Pawel; Bruncko, Dusan; Bruneliere, Renaud; Brunet, Sylvie; Bruni, Alessia; Bruni, Graziano; Bruschi, Marco; Buanes, Trygve; Buat, Quentin; Bucci, Francesca; Buchanan, James; Buchanan, Norman; Buchholz, Peter; Buckingham, Ryan; Buckley, Andrew; Buda, Stelian Ioan; Budagov, Ioulian; Budick, Burton; Büscher, Volker; Bugge, Lars; Bulekov, Oleg; Bunse, Moritz; Buran, Torleiv; Burckhart, Helfried; Burdin, Sergey; Burgard, Carsten Daniel; Burgess, Thomas; Burke, Stephen; Busato, Emmanuel; Bussey, Peter; Buszello, Claus-Peter; Butin, François; Butler, Bart; Butler, John; Buttar, Craig; Butterworth, Jonathan; Buttinger, William; Cabrera Urbán, Susana; Caforio, Davide; Cakir, Orhan; Calafiura, Paolo; Calderini, Giovanni; Calfayan, Philippe; Calkins, Robert; Caloba, Luiz; Caloi, Rita; Calvet, David; Calvet, Samuel; Camacho Toro, Reina; Camarri, Paolo; Cambiaghi, Mario; Cameron, David; Caminada, Lea Michaela; Campana, Simone; Campanelli, Mario; Canale, Vincenzo; Canelli, Florencia; Canepa, Anadi; Cantero, Josu; Capasso, Luciano; Capeans Garrido, Maria Del Mar; Caprini, Irinel; Caprini, Mihai; Capriotti, Daniele; Capua, Marcella; Caputo, Regina; Caramarcu, Costin; Cardarelli, Roberto; Carli, Tancredi; Carlino, Gianpaolo; Carminati, Leonardo; Caron, Bryan; Caron, Sascha; Carrillo Montoya, German D; Carter, Antony; Carter, Janet; Carvalho, João; Casadei, Diego; Casado, Maria Pilar; Cascella, Michele; Caso, Carlo; Castaneda Hernandez, Alfredo Martin; Castaneda-Miranda, Elizabeth; Castillo Gimenez, Victoria; Castro, Nuno Filipe; Cataldi, Gabriella; Cataneo, Fernando; Catinaccio, Andrea; Catmore, James; Cattai, Ariella; Cattani, Giordano; Caughron, Seth; Cauz, Diego; Cavalleri, Pietro; Cavalli, Donatella; Cavalli-Sforza, Matteo; Cavasinni, Vincenzo; Ceradini, Filippo; Santiago Cerqueira, Augusto; Cerri, Alessandro; Cerrito, Lucio; Cerutti, Fabio; Cetin, Serkant Ali; Cevenini, Francesco; Chafaq, Aziz; Chakraborty, Dhiman; Chan, Kevin; Chapleau, Bertrand; Chapman, John Derek; Chapman, John Wehrley; Chareyre, Eve; Charlton, Dave; Chavda, Vikash; Chavez Barajas, Carlos Alberto; Cheatham, Susan; Chekanov, Sergei; Chekulaev, Sergey; Chelkov, Gueorgui; Chelstowska, Magda Anna; Chen, Chunhui; Chen, Hucheng; Chen, Shenjian; Chen, Tingyang; Chen, Xin; Cheng, Shaochen; Cheplakov, Alexander; Chepurnov, Vladimir; Cherkaoui El Moursli, Rajaa; Chernyatin, Valeriy; Cheu, Elliott; Cheung, Sing-Leung; Chevalier, Laurent; Chiefari, Giovanni; Chikovani, Leila; Childers, John Taylor; Chilingarov, Alexandre; Chiodini, Gabriele; Chisholm, Andrew; Chizhov, Mihail; Choudalakis, Georgios; Chouridou, Sofia; Christidi, Illectra-Athanasia; Christov, Asen; Chromek-Burckhart, Doris; Chu, Ming-Lee; Chudoba, Jiri; Ciapetti, Guido; Ciba, Krzysztof; Ciftci, Abbas Kenan; Ciftci, Rena; Cinca, Diane; Cindro, Vladimir; Ciobotaru, Matei Dan; Ciocca, Claudia; Ciocio, Alessandra; Cirilli, Manuela; Citterio, Mauro; Ciubancan, Mihai; Clark, Allan G; Clark, Philip James; Cleland, Bill; Clemens, Jean-Claude; Clement, Benoit; Clement, Christophe; Clifft, Roger; Coadou, Yann; Cobal, Marina; Coccaro, Andrea; Cochran, James H; Coe, Paul; Cogan, Joshua Godfrey; Coggeshall, James; Cogneras, Eric; Colas, Jacques; Colijn, Auke-Pieter; Collard, Caroline; Collins, Neil; Collins-Tooth, Christopher; Collot, Johann; Colon, German; Conde Muiño, Patricia; Coniavitis, Elias; Conidi, Maria Chiara; Consonni, Michele; Consorti, Valerio; Constantinescu, Serban; Conta, Claudio; Conventi, Francesco; Cook, James; Cooke, Mark; Cooper, Ben; Cooper-Sarkar, Amanda; Copic, Katherine; Cornelissen, Thijs; Corradi, Massimo; Corriveau, Francois; Cortes-Gonzalez, Arely; Cortiana, Giorgio; Costa, Giuseppe; Costa, María José; Costanzo, Davide; Costin, Tudor; Côté, David; Coura Torres, Rodrigo; Courneyea, Lorraine; Cowan, Glen; Cowden, Christopher; Cox, Brian; Cranmer, Kyle; Crescioli, Francesco; Cristinziani, Markus; Crosetti, Giovanni; Crupi, Roberto; Crépé-Renaudin, Sabine; Cuciuc, Constantin-Mihai; Cuenca Almenar, Cristóbal; Cuhadar Donszelmann, Tulay; Curatolo, Maria; Curtis, Chris; Cuthbert, Cameron; Cwetanski, Peter; Czirr, Hendrik; Czodrowski, Patrick; Czyczula, Zofia; D'Auria, Saverio; D'Onofrio, Monica; D'Orazio, Alessia; Da Silva, Paulo Vitor; Da Via, Cinzia; Dabrowski, Wladyslaw; Dai, Tiesheng; Dallapiccola, Carlo; Dam, Mogens; Dameri, Mauro; Damiani, Daniel; Danielsson, Hans Olof; Dannheim, Dominik; Dao, Valerio; Darbo, Giovanni; Darlea, Georgiana Lavinia; Davey, Will; Davidek, Tomas; Davidson, Nadia; Davidson, Ruth; Davies, Eleanor; Davies, Merlin; Davison, Adam; Davygora, Yuriy; Dawe, Edmund; Dawson, Ian; Dawson, John; Daya, Rozmin; De, Kaushik; de Asmundis, Riccardo; De Castro, Stefano; De Castro Faria Salgado, Pedro; De Cecco, Sandro; de Graat, Julien; De Groot, Nicolo; de Jong, Paul; De La Taille, Christophe; De la Torre, Hector; De Lotto, Barbara; de Mora, Lee; De Nooij, Lucie; De Pedis, Daniele; De Salvo, Alessandro; De Sanctis, Umberto; De Santo, Antonella; De Vivie De Regie, Jean-Baptiste; Dean, Simon; Dearnaley, William James; Debbe, Ramiro; Debenedetti, Chiara; Dedovich, Dmitri; Degenhardt, James; Dehchar, Mohamed; Del Papa, Carlo; Del Peso, Jose; Del Prete, Tarcisio; Delemontex, Thomas; Deliyergiyev, Maksym; Dell'Acqua, Andrea; Dell'Asta, Lidia; Della Pietra, Massimo; della Volpe, Domenico; Delmastro, Marco; Delruelle, Nicolas; Delsart, Pierre-Antoine; Deluca, Carolina; Demers, Sarah; Demichev, Mikhail; Demirkoz, Bilge; Deng, Jianrong; Denisov, Sergey; Derendarz, Dominik; Derkaoui, Jamal Eddine; Derue, Frederic; Dervan, Paul; Desch, Klaus Kurt; Devetak, Erik; Deviveiros, Pier-Olivier; Dewhurst, Alastair; DeWilde, Burton; Dhaliwal, Saminder; Dhullipudi, Ramasudhakar; Di Ciaccio, Anna; Di Ciaccio, Lucia; Di Girolamo, Alessandro; Di Girolamo, Beniamino; Di Luise, Silvestro; Di Mattia, Alessandro; Di Micco, Biagio; Di Nardo, Roberto; Di Simone, Andrea; Di Sipio, Riccardo; Diaz, Marco Aurelio; Diblen, Faruk; Diehl, Edward; Dietrich, Janet; Dietzsch, Thorsten; Diglio, Sara; Dindar Yagci, Kamile; Dingfelder, Jochen; Dionisi, Carlo; Dita, Petre; Dita, Sanda; Dittus, Fridolin; Djama, Fares; Djobava, Tamar; Barros do Vale, Maria Aline; Do Valle Wemans, André; Doan, Thi Kieu Oanh; Dobbs, Matt; Dobinson, Robert; Dobos, Daniel; Dobson, Ellie; Dobson, Marc; Dodd, Jeremy; Doglioni, Caterina; Doherty, Tom; Doi, Yoshikuni; Dolejsi, Jiri; Dolenc, Irena; Dolezal, Zdenek; Dolgoshein, Boris; Dohmae, Takeshi; Donadelli, Marisilvia; Donega, Mauro; Donini, Julien; Dopke, Jens; Doria, Alessandra; Dos Anjos, Andre; Dosil, Mireia; Dotti, Andrea; Dova, Maria-Teresa; Dowell, John; Doxiadis, Alexander; Doyle, Tony; Drasal, Zbynek; Drees, Jürgen; Dressnandt, Nandor; Drevermann, Hans; Driouichi, Chafik; Dris, Manolis; Dubbert, Jörg; Dube, Sourabh; Duchovni, Ehud; Duckeck, Guenter; Dudarev, Alexey; Dudziak, Fanny; Dührssen, Michael; Duerdoth, Ian; Duflot, Laurent; Dufour, Marc-Andre; Dunford, Monica; Duran Yildiz, Hatice; Duxfield, Robert; Dwuznik, Michal; Dydak, Friedrich; Düren, Michael; Ebenstein, William; Ebke, Johannes; Eckweiler, Sebastian; Edmonds, Keith; Edwards, Clive; Edwards, Nicholas Charles; Ehrenfeld, Wolfgang; Ehrich, Thies; Eifert, Till; Eigen, Gerald; Einsweiler, Kevin; Eisenhandler, Eric; Ekelof, Tord; El Kacimi, Mohamed; Ellert, Mattias; Elles, Sabine; Ellinghaus, Frank; Ellis, Katherine; Ellis, Nicolas; Elmsheuser, Johannes; Elsing, Markus; Emeliyanov, Dmitry; Engelmann, Roderich; Engl, Albert; Epp, Brigitte; Eppig, Andrew; Erdmann, Johannes; Ereditato, Antonio; Eriksson, Daniel; Ernst, Jesse; Ernst, Michael; Ernwein, Jean; Errede, Deborah; Errede, Steven; Ertel, Eugen; Escalier, Marc; Escobar, Carlos; Espinal Curull, Xavier; Esposito, Bellisario; Etienne, Francois; Etienvre, Anne-Isabelle; Etzion, Erez; Evangelakou, Despoina; Evans, Hal; Fabbri, Laura; Fabre, Caroline; Fakhrutdinov, Rinat; Falciano, Speranza; Fang, Yaquan; Fanti, Marcello; Farbin, Amir; Farilla, Addolorata; Farley, Jason; Farooque, Trisha; Farrington, Sinead; Farthouat, Philippe; Fassnacht, Patrick; Fassouliotis, Dimitrios; Fatholahzadeh, Baharak; Favareto, Andrea; Fayard, Louis; Fazio, Salvatore; Febbraro, Renato; Federic, Pavol; Fedin, Oleg; Fedorko, Woiciech; Fehling-Kaschek, Mirjam; Feligioni, Lorenzo; Fellmann, Denis; Feng, Cunfeng; Feng, Eric; Fenyuk, Alexander; Ferencei, Jozef; Ferland, Jonathan; Fernando, Waruna; Ferrag, Samir; Ferrando, James; Ferrara, Valentina; Ferrari, Arnaud; Ferrari, Pamela; Ferrari, Roberto; Ferreira de Lima, Danilo Enoque; Ferrer, Antonio; Ferrer, Maria Lorenza; Ferrere, Didier; Ferretti, Claudio; Ferretto Parodi, Andrea; Fiascaris, Maria; Fiedler, Frank; Filipčič, Andrej; Filippas, Anastasios; Filthaut, Frank; Fincke-Keeler, Margret; Fiolhais, Miguel; Fiorini, Luca; Firan, Ana; Fischer, Gordon; Fischer, Peter; Fisher, Matthew; Flechl, Martin; Fleck, Ivor; Fleckner, Johanna; Fleischmann, Philipp; Fleischmann, Sebastian; Flick, Tobias; Floderus, Anders; Flores Castillo, Luis; Flowerdew, Michael; Fokitis, Manolis; Fonseca Martin, Teresa; Forbush, David Alan; Formica, Andrea; Forti, Alessandra; Fortin, Dominique; Foster, Joe; Fournier, Daniel; Foussat, Arnaud; Fowler, Andrew; Fowler, Ken; Fox, Harald; Francavilla, Paolo; Franchino, Silvia; Francis, David; Frank, Tal; Franklin, Melissa; Franz, Sebastien; Fraternali, Marco; Fratina, Sasa; French, Sky; Friedrich, Felix; Froeschl, Robert; Froidevaux, Daniel; Frost, James; Fukunaga, Chikara; Fullana Torregrosa, Esteban; Fuster, Juan; Gabaldon, Carolina; Gabizon, Ofir; Gadfort, Thomas; Gadomski, Szymon; Gagliardi, Guido; Gagnon, Pauline; Galea, Cristina; Gallas, Elizabeth; Gallo, Valentina Santina; Gallop, Bruce; Gallus, Petr; Gan, KK; Gao, Yongsheng; Gapienko, Vladimir; Gaponenko, Andrei; Garberson, Ford; Garcia-Sciveres, Maurice; García, Carmen; García Navarro, José Enrique; Gardner, Robert; Garelli, Nicoletta; Garitaonandia, Hegoi; Garonne, Vincent; Garvey, John; Gatti, Claudio; Gaudio, Gabriella; Gaur, Bakul; Gauthier, Lea; Gavrilenko, Igor; Gay, Colin; Gaycken, Goetz; Gayde, Jean-Christophe; Gazis, Evangelos; Ge, Peng; Gee, Norman; Geerts, Daniël Alphonsus Adrianus; Geich-Gimbel, Christoph; Gellerstedt, Karl; Gemme, Claudia; Gemmell, Alistair; Genest, Marie-Hélène; Gentile, Simonetta; George, Matthias; George, Simon; Gerlach, Peter; Gershon, Avi; Geweniger, Christoph; Ghazlane, Hamid; Ghodbane, Nabil; Giacobbe, Benedetto; Giagu, Stefano; Giakoumopoulou, Victoria; Giangiobbe, Vincent; Gianotti, Fabiola; Gibbard, Bruce; Gibson, Adam; Gibson, Stephen; Gilbert, Laura; Gilewsky, Valentin; Gillberg, Dag; Gillman, Tony; Gingrich, Douglas; Ginzburg, Jonatan; Giokaris, Nikos; Giordani, MarioPaolo; Giordano, Raffaele; Giorgi, Francesco Michelangelo; Giovannini, Paola; Giraud, Pierre-Francois; Giugni, Danilo; Giunta, Michele; Giusti, Paolo; Gjelsten, Børge Kile; Gladilin, Leonid; Glasman, Claudia; Glatzer, Julian; Glazov, Alexandre; Glitza, Karl-Walter; Glonti, George; Goddard, Jack Robert; Godfrey, Jennifer; Godlewski, Jan; Goebel, Martin; Göpfert, Thomas; Goeringer, Christian; Gössling, Claus; Göttfert, Tobias; Goldfarb, Steven; Golling, Tobias; Gomes, Agostinho; Gomez Fajardo, Luz Stella; Gonçalo, Ricardo; Goncalves Pinto Firmino Da Costa, Joao; Gonella, Laura; Gonidec, Allain; Gonzalez, Saul; González de la Hoz, Santiago; Gonzalez Parra, Garoe; Gonzalez Silva, Laura; Gonzalez-Sevilla, Sergio; Goodson, Jeremiah Jet; Goossens, Luc; Gorbounov, Petr Andreevich; Gordon, Howard; Gorelov, Igor; Gorfine, Grant; Gorini, Benedetto; Gorini, Edoardo; Gorišek, Andrej; Gornicki, Edward; Gorokhov, Serguei; Goryachev, Vladimir; Gosdzik, Bjoern; Gosselink, Martijn; Gostkin, Mikhail Ivanovitch; Gough Eschrich, Ivo; Gouighri, Mohamed; Goujdami, Driss; Goulette, Marc Phillippe; Goussiou, Anna; Goy, Corinne; Gozpinar, Serdar; Grabowska-Bold, Iwona; Grafström, Per; Grahn, Karl-Johan; Grancagnolo, Francesco; Grancagnolo, Sergio; Grassi, Valerio; Gratchev, Vadim; Grau, Nathan; Gray, Heather; Gray, Julia Ann; Graziani, Enrico; Grebenyuk, Oleg; Greenshaw, Timothy; Greenwood, Zeno Dixon; Gregersen, Kristian; Gregor, Ingrid-Maria; Grenier, Philippe; Griffiths, Justin; Grigalashvili, Nugzar; Grillo, Alexander; Grinstein, Sebastian; Grishkevich, Yaroslav; Grivaz, Jean-Francois; Groh, Manfred; Gross, Eilam; Grosse-Knetter, Joern; Groth-Jensen, Jacob; Grybel, Kai; Guarino, Victor; Guest, Daniel; Guicheney, Christophe; Guida, Angelo; Guindon, Stefan; Guler, Hulya; Gunther, Jaroslav; Guo, Bin; Guo, Jun; Gupta, Ambreesh; Gusakov, Yury; Gushchin, Vladimir; Gutierrez, Phillip; Guttman, Nir; Gutzwiller, Olivier; Guyot, Claude; Gwenlan, Claire; Gwilliam, Carl; Haas, Andy; Haas, Stefan; Haber, Carl; Hackenburg, Robert; Hadavand, Haleh Khani; Hadley, David; Haefner, Petra; Hahn, Ferdinand; Haider, Stefan; Hajduk, Zbigniew; Hakobyan, Hrachya; Hall, David; Haller, Johannes; Hamacher, Klaus; Hamal, Petr; Hamer, Matthias; Hamilton, Andrew; Hamilton, Samuel; Han, Hongguang; Han, Liang; Hanagaki, Kazunori; Hanawa, Keita; Hance, Michael; Handel, Carsten; Hanke, Paul; Hansen, John Renner; Hansen, Jørgen Beck; Hansen, Jorn Dines; Hansen, Peter Henrik; Hansson, Per; Hara, Kazuhiko; Hare, Gabriel; Harenberg, Torsten; Harkusha, Siarhei; Harper, Devin; Harrington, Robert; Harris, Orin; Harrison, Karl; Hartert, Jochen; Hartjes, Fred; Haruyama, Tomiyoshi; Harvey, Alex; Hasegawa, Satoshi; Hasegawa, Yoji; Hassani, Samira; Hatch, Mark; Hauff, Dieter; Haug, Sigve; Hauschild, Michael; Hauser, Reiner; Havranek, Miroslav; Hawes, Brian; Hawkes, Christopher; Hawkings, Richard John; Hawkins, Anthony David; Hawkins, Donovan; Hayakawa, Takashi; Hayashi, Takayasu; Hayden, Daniel; Hayward, Helen; Haywood, Stephen; Hazen, Eric; He, Mao; Head, Simon; Hedberg, Vincent; Heelan, Louise; Heim, Sarah; Heinemann, Beate; Heisterkamp, Simon; Helary, Louis; Heller, Claudio; Heller, Matthieu; Hellman, Sten; Hellmich, Dennis; Helsens, Clement; Henderson, Robert; Henke, Michael; Henrichs, Anna; Henriques Correia, Ana Maria; Henrot-Versille, Sophie; Henry-Couannier, Frédéric; Hensel, Carsten; Henß, Tobias; Medina Hernandez, Carlos; Hernández Jiménez, Yesenia; Herrberg, Ruth; Hershenhorn, Alon David; Herten, Gregor; Hertenberger, Ralf; Hervas, Luis; Hesketh, Gavin Grant; Hessey, Nigel; Higón-Rodriguez, Emilio; Hill, Daniel; Hill, John; Hill, Norman; Hiller, Karl Heinz; Hillert, Sonja; Hillier, Stephen; Hinchliffe, Ian; Hines, Elizabeth; Hirose, Minoru; Hirsch, Florian; Hirschbuehl, Dominic; Hobbs, John; Hod, Noam; Hodgkinson, Mark; Hodgson, Paul; Hoecker, Andreas; Hoeferkamp, Martin; Hoffman, Julia; Hoffmann, Dirk; Hohlfeld, Marc; Holder, Martin; Holmgren, Sven-Olof; Holy, Tomas; Holzbauer, Jenny; Homma, Yasuhiro; Hong, Tae Min; Hooft van Huysduynen, Loek; Horazdovsky, Tomas; Horn, Claus; Horner, Stephan; Hostachy, Jean-Yves; Hou, Suen; Houlden, Michael; Hoummada, Abdeslam; Howarth, James; Howell, David; Hristova, Ivana; Hrivnac, Julius; Hruska, Ivan; Hryn'ova, Tetiana; Hsu, Pai-hsien Jennifer; Hsu, Shih-Chieh; Huang, Guang Shun; Hubacek, Zdenek; Hubaut, Fabrice; Huegging, Fabian; Huettmann, Antje; Huffman, Todd Brian; Hughes, Emlyn; Hughes, Gareth; Hughes-Jones, Richard; Huhtinen, Mika; Hurst, Peter; Hurwitz, Martina; Husemann, Ulrich; Huseynov, Nazim; Huston, Joey; Huth, John; Iacobucci, Giuseppe; Iakovidis, Georgios; Ibbotson, Michael; Ibragimov, Iskander; Ichimiya, Ryo; Iconomidou-Fayard, Lydia; Idarraga, John; Iengo, Paolo; Igonkina, Olga; Ikegami, Yoichi; Ikeno, Masahiro; Ilchenko, Yuri; Iliadis, Dimitrios; Ilic, Nikolina; Imori, Masatoshi; Ince, Tayfun; Inigo-Golfin, Joaquin; Ioannou, Pavlos; Iodice, Mauro; Ippolito, Valerio; Irles Quiles, Adrian; Isaksson, Charlie; Ishikawa, Akimasa; Ishino, Masaya; Ishmukhametov, Renat; Issever, Cigdem; Istin, Serhat; Ivashin, Anton; Iwanski, Wieslaw; Iwasaki, Hiroyuki; Izen, Joseph; Izzo, Vincenzo; Jackson, Brett; Jackson, John; Jackson, Paul; Jaekel, Martin; Jain, Vivek; Jakobs, Karl; Jakobsen, Sune; Jakubek, Jan; Jana, Dilip; Jankowski, Ernest; Jansen, Eric; Jansen, Hendrik; Jantsch, Andreas; Janus, Michel; Jarlskog, Göran; Jeanty, Laura; Jelen, Kazimierz; Jen-La Plante, Imai; Jenni, Peter; Jeremie, Andrea; Jež, Pavel; Jézéquel, Stéphane; Jha, Manoj Kumar; Ji, Haoshuang; Ji, Weina; Jia, Jiangyong; Jiang, Yi; Jimenez Belenguer, Marcos; Jin, Ge; Jin, Shan; Jinnouchi, Osamu; Joergensen, Morten Dam; Joffe, David; Johansen, Lars; Johansen, Marianne; Johansson, Erik; Johansson, Per; Johnert, Sebastian; Johns, Kenneth; Jon-And, Kerstin; Jones, Graham; Jones, Roger; Jones, Tegid; Jones, Tim; Jonsson, Ove; Joram, Christian; Jorge, Pedro; Joseph, John; Jovicevic, Jelena; Jovin, Tatjana; Ju, Xiangyang; Jung, Christian; Jungst, Ralph Markus; Juranek, Vojtech; Jussel, Patrick; Juste Rozas, Aurelio; Kabachenko, Vasily; Kabana, Sonja; Kaci, Mohammed; Kaczmarska, Anna; Kadlecik, Peter; Kado, Marumi; Kagan, Harris; Kagan, Michael; Kaiser, Steffen; Kajomovitz, Enrique; Kalinin, Sergey; Kalinovskaya, Lidia; Kama, Sami; Kanaya, Naoko; Kaneda, Michiru; Kaneti, Steven; Kanno, Takayuki; Kantserov, Vadim; Kanzaki, Junichi; Kaplan, Benjamin; Kapliy, Anton; Kaplon, Jan; Kar, Deepak; Karagoz, Muge; Karnevskiy, Mikhail; Karr, Kristo; Kartvelishvili, Vakhtang; Karyukhin, Andrey; Kashif, Lashkar; Kasieczka, Gregor; Kasmi, Azzedine; Kass, Richard; Kastanas, Alex; Kataoka, Mayuko; Kataoka, Yousuke; Katsoufis, Elias; Katzy, Judith; Kaushik, Venkatesh; Kawagoe, Kiyotomo; Kawamoto, Tatsuo; Kawamura, Gen; Kayl, Manuel; Kazanin, Vassili; Kazarinov, Makhail; Keeler, Richard; Kehoe, Robert; Keil, Markus; Kekelidze, George; Kennedy, John; Kenney, Christopher John; Kenyon, Mike; Kepka, Oldrich; Kerschen, Nicolas; Kerševan, Borut Paul; Kersten, Susanne; Kessoku, Kohei; Keung, Justin; Khakzad, Mohsen; Khalil-zada, Farkhad; Khandanyan, Hovhannes; Khanov, Alexander; Kharchenko, Dmitri; Khodinov, Alexander; Kholodenko, Anatoli; Khomich, Andrei; Khoo, Teng Jian; Khoriauli, Gia; Khoroshilov, Andrey; Khovanskiy, Nikolai; Khovanskiy, Valery; Khramov, Evgeniy; Khubua, Jemal; Kim, Hyeon Jin; Kim, Min Suk; Kim, Shinhong; Kimura, Naoki; Kind, Oliver; King, Barry; King, Matthew; King, Robert Steven Beaufoy; Kirk, Julie; Kirsch, Lawrence; Kiryunin, Andrey; Kishimoto, Tomoe; Kisielewska, Danuta; Kittelmann, Thomas; Kiver, Andrey; Kladiva, Eduard; Klaiber-Lodewigs, Jonas; Klein, Max; Klein, Uta; Kleinknecht, Konrad; Klemetti, Miika; Klier, Amit; Klimek, Pawel; Klimentov, Alexei; Klingenberg, Reiner; Klinger, Joel Alexander; Klinkby, Esben; Klioutchnikova, Tatiana; Klok, Peter; Klous, Sander; Kluge, Eike-Erik; Kluge, Thomas; Kluit, Peter; Kluth, Stefan; Knecht, Neil; Kneringer, Emmerich; Knobloch, Juergen; Knoops, Edith; Knue, Andrea; Ko, Byeong Rok; Kobayashi, Tomio; Kobel, Michael; Kocian, Martin; Kodys, Peter; Köneke, Karsten; König, Adriaan; Koenig, Sebastian; Köpke, Lutz; Koetsveld, Folkert; Koevesarki, Peter; Koffas, Thomas; Koffeman, Els; Kogan, Lucy Anne; Kohn, Fabian; Kohout, Zdenek; Kohriki, Takashi; Koi, Tatsumi; Kokott, Thomas; Kolachev, Guennady; Kolanoski, Hermann; Kolesnikov, Vladimir; Koletsou, Iro; Koll, James; Kollefrath, Michael; Kolya, Scott; Komar, Aston; Komori, Yuto; Kondo, Takahiko; Kono, Takanori; Kononov, Anatoly; Konoplich, Rostislav; Konstantinidis, Nikolaos; Kootz, Andreas; Koperny, Stefan; Korcyl, Krzysztof; Kordas, Kostantinos; Koreshev, Victor; Korn, Andreas; Korol, Aleksandr; Korolkov, Ilya; Korolkova, Elena; Korotkov, Vladislav; Kortner, Oliver; Kortner, Sandra; Kostyukhin, Vadim; Kotamäki, Miikka Juhani; Kotov, Sergey; Kotov, Vladislav; Kotwal, Ashutosh; Kourkoumelis, Christine; Kouskoura, Vasiliki; Koutsman, Alex; Kowalewski, Robert Victor; Kowalski, Tadeusz; Kozanecki, Witold; Kozhin, Anatoly; Kral, Vlastimil; Kramarenko, Viktor; Kramberger, Gregor; Krasny, Mieczyslaw Witold; Krasznahorkay, Attila; Kraus, James; Kraus, Jana; Kreisel, Arik; Krejci, Frantisek; Kretzschmar, Jan; Krieger, Nina; Krieger, Peter; Kroeninger, Kevin; Kroha, Hubert; Kroll, Joe; Kroseberg, Juergen; Krstic, Jelena; Kruchonak, Uladzimir; Krüger, Hans; Kruker, Tobias; Krumnack, Nils; Krumshteyn, Zinovii; Kruth, Andre; Kubota, Takashi; Kuday, Sinan; Kuehn, Susanne; Kugel, Andreas; Kuhl, Thorsten; Kuhn, Dietmar; Kukhtin, Victor; Kulchitsky, Yuri; Kuleshov, Sergey; Kummer, Christian; Kuna, Marine; Kundu, Nikhil; Kunkle, Joshua; Kupco, Alexander; Kurashige, Hisaya; Kurata, Masakazu; Kurochkin, Yurii; Kus, Vlastimil; Kuwertz, Emma Sian; Kuze, Masahiro; Kvita, Jiri; Kwee, Regina; La Rosa, Alessandro; La Rotonda, Laura; Labarga, Luis; Labbe, Julien; Lablak, Said; Lacasta, Carlos; Lacava, Francesco; Lacker, Heiko; Lacour, Didier; Lacuesta, Vicente Ramón; Ladygin, Evgueni; Lafaye, Remi; Laforge, Bertrand; Lagouri, Theodota; Lai, Stanley; Laisne, Emmanuel; Lamanna, Massimo; Lampen, Caleb; Lampl, Walter; Lancon, Eric; Landgraf, Ulrich; Landon, Murrough; Lane, Jenna; Lange, Clemens; Lankford, Andrew; Lanni, Francesco; Lantzsch, Kerstin; Laplace, Sandrine; Lapoire, Cecile; Laporte, Jean-Francois; Lari, Tommaso; Larionov, Anatoly; Larner, Aimee; Lasseur, Christian; Lassnig, Mario; Laurelli, Paolo; Lavorini, Vincenzo; Lavrijsen, Wim; Laycock, Paul; Lazarev, Alexandre; Le Dortz, Olivier; Le Guirriec, Emmanuel; Le Maner, Christophe; Le Menedeu, Eve; Lebel, Céline; LeCompte, Thomas; Ledroit-Guillon, Fabienne Agnes Marie; Lee, Hurng-Chun; Lee, Jason; Lee, Shih-Chang; Lee, Lawrence; Lefebvre, Michel; Legendre, Marie; Leger, Annie; LeGeyt, Benjamin; Legger, Federica; Leggett, Charles; Lehmacher, Marc; Lehmann Miotto, Giovanna; Lei, Xiaowen; Leite, Marco Aurelio Lisboa; Leitner, Rupert; Lellouch, Daniel; Leltchouk, Mikhail; Lemmer, Boris; Lendermann, Victor; Leney, Katharine; Lenz, Tatiana; Lenzen, Georg; Lenzi, Bruno; Leonhardt, Kathrin; Leontsinis, Stefanos; Leroy, Claude; Lessard, Jean-Raphael; Lesser, Jonas; Lester, Christopher; Leung Fook Cheong, Annabelle; Levêque, Jessica; Levin, Daniel; Levinson, Lorne; Levitski, Mikhail; Lewis, Adrian; Lewis, George; Leyko, Agnieszka; Leyton, Michael; Li, Bo; Li, Haifeng; Li, Shu; Li, Xuefei; Liang, Zhijun; Liao, Hongbo; Liberti, Barbara; Lichard, Peter; Lichtnecker, Markus; Lie, Ki; Liebig, Wolfgang; Lifshitz, Ronen; Lilley, Joseph; Limbach, Christian; Limosani, Antonio; Limper, Maaike; Lin, Simon; Linde, Frank; Linnemann, James; Lipeles, Elliot; Lipinsky, Lukas; Lipniacka, Anna; Liss, Tony; Lissauer, David; Lister, Alison; Litke, Alan; Liu, Chuanlei; Liu, Dong; Liu, Hao; Liu, Jianbei; Liu, Minghui; Liu, Yanwen; Livan, Michele; Livermore, Sarah; Lleres, Annick; Llorente Merino, Javier; Lloyd, Stephen; Lobodzinska, Ewelina; Loch, Peter; Lockman, William; Loddenkoetter, Thomas; Loebinger, Fred; Loginov, Andrey; Loh, Chang Wei; Lohse, Thomas; Lohwasser, Kristin; Lokajicek, Milos; Loken, James; Lombardo, Vincenzo Paolo; Long, Robin Eamonn; Lopes, Lourenco; Lopez Mateos, David; Lorenz, Jeanette; Lorenzo Martinez, Narei; Losada, Marta; Loscutoff, Peter; Lo Sterzo, Francesco; Losty, Michael; Lou, Xinchou; Lounis, Abdenour; Loureiro, Karina; Love, Jeremy; Love, Peter; Lowe, Andrew; Lu, Feng; Lubatti, Henry; Luci, Claudio; Lucotte, Arnaud; Ludwig, Andreas; Ludwig, Dörthe; Ludwig, Inga; Ludwig, Jens; Luehring, Frederick; Luijckx, Guy; Lumb, Debra; Luminari, Lamberto; Lund, Esben; Lund-Jensen, Bengt; Lundberg, Björn; Lundberg, Johan; Lundquist, Johan; Lungwitz, Matthias; Lutz, Gerhard; Lynn, David; Lys, Jeremy; Lytken, Else; Ma, Hong; Ma, Lian Liang; Macana Goia, Jorge Andres; Maccarrone, Giovanni; Macchiolo, Anna; Maček, Boštjan; Machado Miguens, Joana; Mackeprang, Rasmus; Madaras, Ronald; Mader, Wolfgang; Maenner, Reinhard; Maeno, Tadashi; Mättig, Peter; Mättig, Stefan; Magnoni, Luca; Magradze, Erekle; Mahalalel, Yair; Mahboubi, Kambiz; Mahout, Gilles; Maiani, Camilla; Maidantchik, Carmen; Maio, Amélia; Majewski, Stephanie; Makida, Yasuhiro; Makovec, Nikola; Mal, Prolay; Malaescu, Bogdan; Malecki, Pawel; Malecki, Piotr; Maleev, Victor; Malek, Fairouz; Mallik, Usha; Malon, David; Malone, Caitlin; Maltezos, Stavros; Malyshev, Vladimir; Malyukov, Sergei; Mameghani, Raphael; Mamuzic, Judita; Manabe, Atsushi; Mandelli, Luciano; Mandić, Igor; Mandrysch, Rocco; Maneira, José; Mangeard, Pierre-Simon; Manhaes de Andrade Filho, Luciano; Manjavidze, Ioseb; Mann, Alexander; Manning, Peter; Manousakis-Katsikakis, Arkadios; Mansoulie, Bruno; Manz, Andreas; Mapelli, Alessandro; Mapelli, Livio; March, Luis; Marchand, Jean-Francois; Marchese, Fabrizio; Marchiori, Giovanni; Marcisovsky, Michal; Marin, Alexandru; Marino, Christopher; Marroquim, Fernando; Marshall, Robin; Marshall, Zach; Martens, Kalen; Marti-Garcia, Salvador; Martin, Andrew; Martin, Brian; Martin, Brian Thomas; Martin, Franck Francois; Martin, Jean-Pierre; Martin, Philippe; Martin, Tim; Martin, Victoria Jane; Martin dit Latour, Bertrand; Martin-Haugh, Stewart; Martinez, Mario; Martinez Outschoorn, Verena; Martyniuk, Alex; Marx, Marilyn; Marzano, Francesco; Marzin, Antoine; Masetti, Lucia; Mashimo, Tetsuro; Mashinistov, Ruslan; Masik, Jiri; Maslennikov, Alexey; Massa, Ignazio; Massaro, Graziano; Massol, Nicolas; Mastrandrea, Paolo; Mastroberardino, Anna; Masubuchi, Tatsuya; Mathes, Markus; Matricon, Pierre; Matsumoto, Hiroshi; Matsunaga, Hiroyuki; Matsushita, Takashi; Mattravers, Carly; Maugain, Jean-Marie; Maurer, Julien; Maxfield, Stephen; Maximov, Dmitriy; May, Edward; Mayne, Anna; Mazini, Rachid; Mazur, Michael; Mazzanti, Marcello; Mazzoni, Enrico; Mc Kee, Shawn Patrick; McCarn, Allison; McCarthy, Robert; McCarthy, Tom; McCubbin, Norman; McFarlane, Kenneth; Mcfayden, Josh; McGlone, Helen; Mchedlidze, Gvantsa; McLaren, Robert Andrew; Mclaughlan, Tom; McMahon, Steve; McPherson, Robert; Meade, Andrew; Mechnich, Joerg; Mechtel, Markus; Medinnis, Mike; Meera-Lebbai, Razzak; Meguro, Tatsuma; Mehdiyev, Rashid; Mehlhase, Sascha; Mehta, Andrew; Meier, Karlheinz; Meirose, Bernhard; Melachrinos, Constantinos; Mellado Garcia, Bruce Rafael; Mendoza Navas, Luis; Meng, Zhaoxia; Mengarelli, Alberto; Menke, Sven; Menot, Claude; Meoni, Evelin; Mercurio, Kevin Michael; Mermod, Philippe; Merola, Leonardo; Meroni, Chiara; Merritt, Frank; Merritt, Hayes; Messina, Andrea; Metcalfe, Jessica; Mete, Alaettin Serhan; Meyer, Carsten; Meyer, Christopher; Meyer, Jean-Pierre; Meyer, Jochen; Meyer, Joerg; Meyer, Thomas Christian; Meyer, W Thomas; Miao, Jiayuan; Michal, Sebastien; Micu, Liliana; Middleton, Robin; Migas, Sylwia; Mijović, Liza; Mikenberg, Giora; Mikestikova, Marcela; Mikuž, Marko; Miller, David; Miller, Robert; Mills, Bill; Mills, Corrinne; Milov, Alexander; Milstead, David; Milstein, Dmitry; Minaenko, Andrey; Miñano Moya, Mercedes; Minashvili, Irakli; Mincer, Allen; Mindur, Bartosz; Mineev, Mikhail; Ming, Yao; Mir, Lluisa-Maria; Mirabelli, Giovanni; Miralles Verge, Lluis; Misiejuk, Andrzej; Mitrevski, Jovan; Mitrofanov, Gennady; Mitsou, Vasiliki A; Mitsui, Shingo; Miyagawa, Paul; Miyazaki, Kazuki; Mjörnmark, Jan-Ulf; Moa, Torbjoern; Mockett, Paul; Moed, Shulamit; Moeller, Victoria; Mönig, Klaus; Möser, Nicolas; Mohapatra, Soumya; Mohr, Wolfgang; Mohrdieck-Möck, Susanne; Moisseev, Artemy; Moles-Valls, Regina; Molina-Perez, Jorge; Monk, James; Monnier, Emmanuel; Montesano, Simone; Monticelli, Fernando; Monzani, Simone; Moore, Roger; Moorhead, Gareth; Mora Herrera, Clemencia; Moraes, Arthur; Morange, Nicolas; Morel, Julien; Morello, Gianfranco; Moreno, Deywis; Moreno Llácer, María; Morettini, Paolo; Morgenstern, Marcus; Morii, Masahiro; Morin, Jerome; Morley, Anthony Keith; Mornacchi, Giuseppe; Morozov, Sergey; Morris, John; Morvaj, Ljiljana; Moser, Hans-Guenther; Mosidze, Maia; Moss, Josh; Mount, Richard; Mountricha, Eleni; Mouraviev, Sergei; Moyse, Edward; Mudrinic, Mihajlo; Mueller, Felix; Mueller, James; Mueller, Klemens; Müller, Thomas; Mueller, Timo; Muenstermann, Daniel; Muir, Alex; Munwes, Yonathan; Murray, Bill; Mussche, Ido; Musto, Elisa; Myagkov, Alexey; Nadal, Jordi; Nagai, Koichi; Nagano, Kunihiro; Nagarkar, Advait; Nagasaka, Yasushi; Nagel, Martin; Nairz, Armin Michael; Nakahama, Yu; Nakamura, Koji; Nakamura, Tomoaki; Nakano, Itsuo; Nanava, Gizo; Napier, Austin; Narayan, Rohin; Nash, Michael; Nation, Nigel; Nattermann, Till; Naumann, Thomas; Navarro, Gabriela; Neal, Homer; Nebot, Eduardo; Nechaeva, Polina; Neep, Thomas James; Negri, Andrea; Negri, Guido; Nektarijevic, Snezana; Nelson, Andrew; Nelson, Silke; Nelson, Timothy Knight; Nemecek, Stanislav; Nemethy, Peter; Nepomuceno, Andre Asevedo; Nessi, Marzio; Neubauer, Mark; Neusiedl, Andrea; Neves, Ricardo; Nevski, Pavel; Newman, Paul; Nguyen Thi Hong, Van; Nickerson, Richard; Nicolaidou, Rosy; Nicolas, Ludovic; Nicquevert, Bertrand; Niedercorn, Francois; Nielsen, Jason; Niinikoski, Tapio; Nikiforou, Nikiforos; Nikiforov, Andriy; Nikolaenko, Vladimir; Nikolaev, Kirill; Nikolic-Audit, Irena; Nikolics, Katalin; Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos; Nilsen, Henrik; Nilsson, Paul; Ninomiya, Yoichi; Nisati, Aleandro; Nishiyama, Tomonori; Nisius, Richard; Nodulman, Lawrence; Nomachi, Masaharu; Nomidis, Ioannis; Nordberg, Markus; Nordkvist, Bjoern; Norton, Peter; Novakova, Jana; Nozaki, Mitsuaki; Nozka, Libor; Nugent, Ian Michael; Nuncio-Quiroz, Adriana-Elizabeth; Nunes Hanninger, Guilherme; Nunnemann, Thomas; Nurse, Emily; O'Brien, Brendan Joseph; O'Neale, Steve; O'Neil, Dugan; O'Shea, Val; Oakes, Louise Beth; Oakham, Gerald; Oberlack, Horst; Ocariz, Jose; Ochi, Atsuhiko; Oda, Susumu; Odaka, Shigeru; Odier, Jerome; Ogren, Harold; Oh, Alexander; Oh, Seog; Ohm, Christian; Ohshima, Takayoshi; Ohshita, Hidetoshi; Ohsugi, Takashi; Okada, Shogo; Okawa, Hideki; Okumura, Yasuyuki; Okuyama, Toyonobu; Olariu, Albert; Olcese, Marco; Olchevski, Alexander; Olivares Pino, Sebastian Andres; Oliveira, Miguel Alfonso; Oliveira Damazio, Denis; Oliver Garcia, Elena; Olivito, Dominick; Olszewski, Andrzej; Olszowska, Jolanta; Omachi, Chihiro; Onofre, António; Onyisi, Peter; Oram, Christopher; Oreglia, Mark; Oren, Yona; Orestano, Domizia; Orlov, Iliya; Oropeza Barrera, Cristina; Orr, Robert; Osculati, Bianca; Ospanov, Rustem; Osuna, Carlos; Otero y Garzon, Gustavo; Ottersbach, John; Ouchrif, Mohamed; Ouellette, Eric; Ould-Saada, Farid; Ouraou, Ahmimed; Ouyang, Qun; Ovcharova, Ana; Owen, Mark; Owen, Simon; Ozcan, Veysi Erkcan; Ozturk, Nurcan; Pacheco Pages, Andres; Padilla Aranda, Cristobal; Pagan Griso, Simone; Paganis, Efstathios; Paige, Frank; Pais, Preema; Pajchel, Katarina; Palacino, Gabriel; Paleari, Chiara; Palestini, Sandro; Pallin, Dominique; Palma, Alberto; Palmer, Jody; Pan, Yibin; Panagiotopoulou, Evgenia; Panes, Boris; Panikashvili, Natalia; Panitkin, Sergey; Pantea, Dan; Panuskova, Monika; Paolone, Vittorio; Papadelis, Aras; Papadopoulou, Theodora; Paramonov, Alexander; Park, Woochun; Parker, Andy; Parodi, Fabrizio; Parsons, John; Parzefall, Ulrich; Pasqualucci, Enrico; Passaggio, Stefano; Passeri, Antonio; Pastore, Fernanda; Pastore, Francesca; Pásztor, Gabriella; Pataraia, Sophio; Patel, Nikhul; Pater, Joleen; Patricelli, Sergio; Pauly, Thilo; Pecsy, Martin; Pedraza Morales, Maria Isabel; Peleganchuk, Sergey; Peng, Haiping; Pengo, Ruggero; Penning, Bjoern; Penson, Alexander; Penwell, John; Perantoni, Marcelo; Perez, Kerstin; Perez Cavalcanti, Tiago; Perez Codina, Estel; Pérez García-Estañ, María Teresa; Perez Reale, Valeria; Perini, Laura; Pernegger, Heinz; Perrino, Roberto; Perrodo, Pascal; Persembe, Seda; Perus, Antoine; Peshekhonov, Vladimir; Peters, Krisztian; Petersen, Brian; Petersen, Jorgen; Petersen, Troels; Petit, Elisabeth; Petridis, Andreas; Petridou, Chariclia; Petrolo, Emilio; Petrucci, Fabrizio; Petschull, Dennis; Petteni, Michele; Pezoa, Raquel; Phan, Anna; Phillips, Peter William; Piacquadio, Giacinto; Piccaro, Elisa; Piccinini, Maurizio; Piec, Sebastian Marcin; Piegaia, Ricardo; Pignotti, David; Pilcher, James; Pilkington, Andrew; Pina, João Antonio; Pinamonti, Michele; Pinder, Alex; Pinfold, James; Ping, Jialun; Pinto, Belmiro; Pirotte, Olivier; Pizio, Caterina; Placakyte, Ringaile; Plamondon, Mathieu; Pleier, Marc-Andre; Pleskach, Anatoly; Poblaguev, Andrei; Poddar, Sahill; Podlyski, Fabrice; Poggioli, Luc; Poghosyan, Tatevik; Pohl, Martin; Polci, Francesco; Polesello, Giacomo; Policicchio, Antonio; Polini, Alessandro; Poll, James; Polychronakos, Venetios; Pomarede, Daniel Marc; Pomeroy, Daniel; Pommès, Kathy; Pontecorvo, Ludovico; Pope, Bernard; Popeneciu, Gabriel Alexandru; Popovic, Dragan; Poppleton, Alan; Portell Bueso, Xavier; Posch, Christoph; Pospelov, Guennady; Pospisil, Stanislav; Potrap, Igor; Potter, Christina; Potter, Christopher; Poulard, Gilbert; Poveda, Joaquin; Pozdnyakov, Valery; Prabhu, Robindra; Pralavorio, Pascal; Pranko, Aliaksandr; Prasad, Srivas; Pravahan, Rishiraj; Prell, Soeren; Pretzl, Klaus Peter; Pribyl, Lukas; Price, Darren; Price, Joe; Price, Lawrence; Price, Michael John; Prieur, Damien; Primavera, Margherita; Prokofiev, Kirill; Prokoshin, Fedor; Protopopescu, Serban; Proudfoot, James; Prudent, Xavier; Przybycien, Mariusz; Przysiezniak, Helenka; Psoroulas, Serena; Ptacek, Elizabeth; Pueschel, Elisa; Purdham, John; Purohit, Milind; Puzo, Patrick; Pylypchenko, Yuriy; Qian, Jianming; Qian, Zuxuan; Qin, Zhonghua; Quadt, Arnulf; Quarrie, David; Quayle, William; Quinonez, Fernando; Raas, Marcel; Radescu, Voica; Radics, Balint; Radloff, Peter; Rador, Tonguc; Ragusa, Francesco; Rahal, Ghita; Rahimi, Amir; Rahm, David; Rajagopalan, Srinivasan; Rammensee, Michael; Rammes, Marcus; Randle-Conde, Aidan Sean; Randrianarivony, Koloina; Ratoff, Peter; Rauscher, Felix; Rave, Tobias Christian; Raymond, Michel; Read, Alexander Lincoln; Rebuzzi, Daniela; Redelbach, Andreas; Redlinger, George; Reece, Ryan; Reeves, Kendall; Reichold, Armin; Reinherz-Aronis, Erez; Reinsch, Andreas; Reisinger, Ingo; Rembser, Christoph; Ren, Zhongliang; Renaud, Adrien; Renkel, Peter; Rescigno, Marco; Resconi, Silvia; Resende, Bernardo; Reznicek, Pavel; Rezvani, Reyhaneh; Richards, Alexander; Richter, Robert; Richter-Was, Elzbieta; Ridel, Melissa; Rijpstra, Manouk; Rijssenbeek, Michael; Rimoldi, Adele; Rinaldi, Lorenzo; Rios, Ryan Randy; Riu, Imma; Rivoltella, Giancesare; Rizatdinova, Flera; Rizvi, Eram; Robertson, Steven; Robichaud-Veronneau, Andree; Robinson, Dave; Robinson, James; Robinson, Mary; Robson, Aidan; Rocha de Lima, Jose Guilherme; Roda, Chiara; Roda Dos Santos, Denis; Rodriguez, Diego; Roe, Adam; Roe, Shaun; Røhne, Ole; Rojo, Victoria; Rolli, Simona; Romaniouk, Anatoli; Romano, Marino; Romanov, Victor; Romeo, Gaston; Romero Adam, Elena; Roos, Lydia; Ros, Eduardo; Rosati, Stefano; Rosbach, Kilian; Rose, Anthony; Rose, Matthew; Rosenbaum, Gabriel; Rosenberg, Eli; Rosendahl, Peter Lundgaard; Rosenthal, Oliver; Rosselet, Laurent; Rossetti, Valerio; Rossi, Elvira; Rossi, Leonardo Paolo; Rotaru, Marina; Roth, Itamar; Rothberg, Joseph; Rousseau, David; Royon, Christophe; Rozanov, Alexander; Rozen, Yoram; Ruan, Xifeng; Rubinskiy, Igor; Ruckert, Benjamin; Ruckstuhl, Nicole; Rud, Viacheslav; Rudolph, Christian; Rudolph, Gerald; Rühr, Frederik; Ruggieri, Federico; Ruiz-Martinez, Aranzazu; Rumiantsev, Viktor; Rumyantsev, Leonid; Runge, Kay; Rurikova, Zuzana; Rusakovich, Nikolai; Rust, Dave; Rutherfoord, John; Ruwiedel, Christoph; Ruzicka, Pavel; Ryabov, Yury; Ryadovikov, Vasily; Ryan, Patrick; Rybar, Martin; Rybkin, Grigori; Ryder, Nick; Rzaeva, Sevda; Saavedra, Aldo; Sadeh, Iftach; Sadrozinski, Hartmut; Sadykov, Renat; Safai Tehrani, Francesco; Sakamoto, Hiroshi; Salamanna, Giuseppe; Salamon, Andrea; Saleem, Muhammad; Salihagic, Denis; Salnikov, Andrei; Salt, José; Salvachua Ferrando, Belén; Salvatore, Daniela; Salvatore, Pasquale Fabrizio; Salvucci, Antonio; Salzburger, Andreas; Sampsonidis, Dimitrios; Samset, Björn Hallvard; Sanchez, Arturo; Sanchez Martinez, Victoria; Sandaker, Heidi; Sander, Heinz Georg; Sanders, Michiel; Sandhoff, Marisa; Sandoval, Tanya; Sandoval, Carlos; Sandstroem, Rikard; Sandvoss, Stephan; Sankey, Dave; Sansoni, Andrea; Santamarina Rios, Cibran; Santoni, Claudio; Santonico, Rinaldo; Santos, Helena; Saraiva, João; Sarangi, Tapas; Sarkisyan-Grinbaum, Edward; Sarri, Francesca; Sartisohn, Georg; Sasaki, Osamu; Sasaki, Takashi; Sasao, Noboru; Satsounkevitch, Igor; Sauvage, Gilles; Sauvan, Emmanuel; Sauvan, Jean-Baptiste; Savard, Pierre; Savinov, Vladimir; Savu, Dan Octavian; Sawyer, Lee; Saxon, David; Says, Louis-Pierre; Sbarra, Carla; Sbrizzi, Antonio; Scallon, Olivia; Scannicchio, Diana; Scarcella, Mark; Schaarschmidt, Jana; Schacht, Peter; Schäfer, Uli; Schaepe, Steffen; Schaetzel, Sebastian; Schaffer, Arthur; Schaile, Dorothee; Schamberger, R. Dean; Schamov, Andrey; Scharf, Veit; Schegelsky, Valery; Scheirich, Daniel; Schernau, Michael; Scherzer, Max; Schiavi, Carlo; Schieck, Jochen; Schioppa, Marco; Schlenker, Stefan; Schlereth, James; Schmidt, Evelyn; Schmieden, Kristof; Schmitt, Christian; Schmitt, Sebastian; Schmitz, Martin; Schöning, André; Schott, Matthias; Schouten, Doug; Schovancova, Jaroslava; Schram, Malachi; Schroeder, Christian; Schroer, Nicolai; Schuh, Silvia; Schuler, Georges; Schultens, Martin Johannes; Schultes, Joachim; Schultz-Coulon, Hans-Christian; Schulz, Holger; Schumacher, Jan; Schumacher, Markus; Schumm, Bruce; Schune, Philippe; Schwanenberger, Christian; Schwartzman, Ariel; Schwemling, Philippe; Schwienhorst, Reinhard; Schwierz, Rainer; Schwindling, Jerome; Schwindt, Thomas; Schwoerer, Maud; Scott, Bill; Searcy, Jacob; Sedov, George; Sedykh, Evgeny; Segura, Ester; Seidel, Sally; Seiden, Abraham; Seifert, Frank; Seixas, José; Sekhniaidze, Givi; Selbach, Karoline Elfriede; Seliverstov, Dmitry; Sellden, Bjoern; Sellers, Graham; Seman, Michal; Semprini-Cesari, Nicola; Serfon, Cedric; Serin, Laurent; Serkin, Leonid; Seuster, Rolf; Severini, Horst; Sevior, Martin; Sfyrla, Anna; Shabalina, Elizaveta; Shamim, Mansoora; Shan, Lianyou; Shank, James; Shao, Qi Tao; Shapiro, Marjorie; Shatalov, Pavel; Shaver, Leif; Shaw, Kate; Sherman, Daniel; Sherwood, Peter; Shibata, Akira; Shichi, Hideharu; Shimizu, Shima; Shimojima, Makoto; Shin, Taeksu; Shiyakova, Maria; Shmeleva, Alevtina; Shochet, Mel; Short, Daniel; Shrestha, Suyog; Shulga, Evgeny; Shupe, Michael; Sicho, Petr; Sidoti, Antonio; Siegert, Frank; Sijacki, Djordje; Silbert, Ohad; Silva, José; Silver, Yiftah; Silverstein, Daniel; Silverstein, Samuel; Simak, Vladislav; Simard, Olivier; Simic, Ljiljana; Simion, Stefan; Simmons, Brinick; Simonyan, Margar; Sinervo, Pekka; Sinev, Nikolai; Sipica, Valentin; Siragusa, Giovanni; Sircar, Anirvan; Sisakyan, Alexei; Sivoklokov, Serguei; Sjölin, Jörgen; Sjursen, Therese; Skinnari, Louise Anastasia; Skottowe, Hugh Philip; Skovpen, Kirill; Skubic, Patrick; Skvorodnev, Nikolai; Slater, Mark; Slavicek, Tomas; Sliwa, Krzysztof; Sloper, John erik; Smakhtin, Vladimir; Smart, Ben; Smirnov, Sergei; Smirnov, Yury; Smirnova, Lidia; Smirnova, Oxana; Smith, Ben Campbell; Smith, Douglas; Smith, Kenway; Smizanska, Maria; Smolek, Karel; Snesarev, Andrei; Snow, Steve; Snow, Joel; Snuverink, Jochem; Snyder, Scott; Soares, Mara; Sobie, Randall; Sodomka, Jaromir; Soffer, Abner; Solans, Carlos; Solar, Michael; Solc, Jaroslav; Soldatov, Evgeny; Soldevila, Urmila; Solfaroli Camillocci, Elena; Solodkov, Alexander; Solovyanov, Oleg; Soni, Nitesh; Sopko, Vit; Sopko, Bruno; Sosebee, Mark; Soualah, Rachik; Soukharev, Andrey; Spagnolo, Stefania; Spanò, Francesco; Spighi, Roberto; Spigo, Giancarlo; Spila, Federico; Spiwoks, Ralf; Spousta, Martin; Spreitzer, Teresa; Spurlock, Barry; St Denis, Richard Dante; Stahlman, Jonathan; Stamen, Rainer; Stanecka, Ewa; Stanek, Robert; Stanescu, Cristian; Stapnes, Steinar; Starchenko, Evgeny; Stark, Jan; Staroba, Pavel; Starovoitov, Pavel; Staude, Arnold; Stavina, Pavel; Stavropoulos, Georgios; Steele, Genevieve; Steinbach, Peter; Steinberg, Peter; Stekl, Ivan; Stelzer, Bernd; Stelzer, Harald Joerg; Stelzer-Chilton, Oliver; Stenzel, Hasko; Stern, Sebastian; Stevenson, Kyle; Stewart, Graeme; Stillings, Jan Andre; Stockton, Mark; Stoerig, Kathrin; Stoicea, Gabriel; Stonjek, Stefan; Strachota, Pavel; Stradling, Alden; Straessner, Arno; Strandberg, Jonas; Strandberg, Sara; Strandlie, Are; Strang, Michael; Strauss, Emanuel; Strauss, Michael; Strizenec, Pavol; Ströhmer, Raimund; Strom, David; Strong, John; Stroynowski, Ryszard; Strube, Jan; Stugu, Bjarne; Stumer, Iuliu; Stupak, John; Sturm, Philipp; Styles, Nicholas Adam; Soh, Dart-yin; Su, Dong; Subramania, Halasya Siva; Succurro, Antonella; Sugaya, Yorihito; Sugimoto, Takuya; Suhr, Chad; Suita, Koichi; Suk, Michal; Sulin, Vladimir; Sultansoy, Saleh; Sumida, Toshi; Sun, Xiaohu; Sundermann, Jan Erik; Suruliz, Kerim; Sushkov, Serge; Susinno, Giancarlo; Sutton, Mark; Suzuki, Yu; Suzuki, Yuta; Svatos, Michal; Sviridov, Yuri; Swedish, Stephen; Sykora, Ivan; Sykora, Tomas; Szeless, Balazs; Sánchez, Javier; Ta, Duc; Tackmann, Kerstin; Taffard, Anyes; Tafirout, Reda; Taiblum, Nimrod; Takahashi, Yuta; Takai, Helio; Takashima, Ryuichi; Takeda, Hiroshi; Takeshita, Tohru; Takubo, Yosuke; Talby, Mossadek; Talyshev, Alexey; Tamsett, Matthew; Tanaka, Junichi; Tanaka, Reisaburo; Tanaka, Satoshi; Tanaka, Shuji; Tanaka, Yoshito; Tanasijczuk, Andres Jorge; Tani, Kazutoshi; Tannoury, Nancy; Tappern, Geoffrey; Tapprogge, Stefan; Tardif, Dominique; Tarem, Shlomit; Tarrade, Fabien; Tartarelli, Giuseppe Francesco; Tas, Petr; Tasevsky, Marek; Tassi, Enrico; Tatarkhanov, Mous; Tayalati, Yahya; Taylor, Christopher; Taylor, Frank; Taylor, Geoffrey; Taylor, Wendy; Teinturier, Marthe; Teixeira Dias Castanheira, Matilde; Teixeira-Dias, Pedro; Temming, Kim Katrin; Ten Kate, Herman; Teng, Ping-Kun; Terada, Susumu; Terashi, Koji; Terron, Juan; Testa, Marianna; Teuscher, Richard; Thadome, Jocelyn; Therhaag, Jan; Theveneaux-Pelzer, Timothée; Thioye, Moustapha; Thoma, Sascha; Thomas, Juergen; Thompson, Emily; Thompson, Paul; Thompson, Peter; Thompson, Stan; Thomsen, Lotte Ansgaard; Thomson, Evelyn; Thomson, Mark; Thun, Rudolf; Tian, Feng; Tibbetts, Mark James; Tic, Tomáš; Tikhomirov, Vladimir; Tikhonov, Yury; Timoshenko, Sergey; Tipton, Paul; Tique Aires Viegas, Florbela De Jes; Tisserant, Sylvain; Tobias, Jürgen; Toczek, Barbara; Todorov, Theodore; Todorova-Nova, Sharka; Toggerson, Brokk; Tojo, Junji; Tokár, Stanislav; Tokunaga, Kaoru; Tokushuku, Katsuo; Tollefson, Kirsten; Tomoto, Makoto; Tompkins, Lauren; Toms, Konstantin; Tong, Guoliang; Tonoyan, Arshak; Topfel, Cyril; Topilin, Nikolai; Torchiani, Ingo; Torrence, Eric; Torres, Heberth; Torró Pastor, Emma; Toth, Jozsef; Touchard, Francois; Tovey, Daniel; Trefzger, Thomas; Tremblet, Louis; Tricoli, Alesandro; Trigger, Isabel Marian; Trincaz-Duvoid, Sophie; Trinh, Thi Nguyet; Tripiana, Martin; Trischuk, William; Trivedi, Arjun; Trocmé, Benjamin; Troncon, Clara; Trottier-McDonald, Michel; Trzebinski, Maciej; Trzupek, Adam; Tsarouchas, Charilaos; Tseng, Jeffrey; Tsiakiris, Menelaos; Tsiareshka, Pavel; Tsionou, Dimitra; Tsipolitis, Georgios; Tsiskaridze, Vakhtang; Tskhadadze, Edisher; Tsukerman, Ilya; Tsulaia, Vakhtang; Tsung, Jieh-Wen; Tsuno, Soshi; Tsybychev, Dmitri; Tua, Alan; Tudorache, Alexandra; Tudorache, Valentina; Tuggle, Joseph; Turala, Michal; Turecek, Daniel; Turk Cakir, Ilkay; Turlay, Emmanuel; Turra, Ruggero; Tuts, Michael; Tykhonov, Andrii; Tylmad, Maja; Tyndel, Mike; Tzanakos, George; Uchida, Kirika; Ueda, Ikuo; Ueno, Ryuichi; Ugland, Maren; Uhlenbrock, Mathias; Uhrmacher, Michael; Ukegawa, Fumihiko; Unal, Guillaume; Underwood, David; Undrus, Alexander; Unel, Gokhan; Unno, Yoshinobu; Urbaniec, Dustin; Usai, Giulio; Uslenghi, Massimiliano; Vacavant, Laurent; Vacek, Vaclav; Vachon, Brigitte; Vahsen, Sven; Valenta, Jan; Valente, Paolo; Valentinetti, Sara; Valkar, Stefan; Valladolid Gallego, Eva; Vallecorsa, Sofia; Valls Ferrer, Juan Antonio; van der Graaf, Harry; van der Kraaij, Erik; Van Der Leeuw, Robin; van der Poel, Egge; van der Ster, Daniel; van Eldik, Niels; van Gemmeren, Peter; van Kesteren, Zdenko; van Vulpen, Ivo; Vanadia, Marco; Vandelli, Wainer; Vandoni, Giovanna; Vaniachine, Alexandre; Vankov, Peter; Vannucci, Francois; Varela Rodriguez, Fernando; Vari, Riccardo; Varnes, Erich; Varouchas, Dimitris; Vartapetian, Armen; Varvell, Kevin; Vassilakopoulos, Vassilios; Vazeille, Francois; Vegni, Guido; Veillet, Jean-Jacques; Vellidis, Constantine; Veloso, Filipe; Veness, Raymond; Veneziano, Stefano; Ventura, Andrea; Ventura, Daniel; Venturi, Manuela; Venturi, Nicola; Vercesi, Valerio; Verducci, Monica; Verkerke, Wouter; Vermeulen, Jos; Vest, Anja; Vetterli, Michel; Vichou, Irene; Vickey, Trevor; Vickey Boeriu, Oana Elena; Viehhauser, Georg; Viel, Simon; Villa, Mauro; Villaplana Perez, Miguel; Vilucchi, Elisabetta; Vincter, Manuella; Vinek, Elisabeth; Vinogradov, Vladimir; Virchaux, Marc; Virzi, Joseph; Vitells, Ofer; Viti, Michele; Vivarelli, Iacopo; Vives Vaque, Francesc; Vlachos, Sotirios; Vladoiu, Dan; Vlasak, Michal; Vlasov, Nikolai; Vogel, Adrian; Vokac, Petr; Volpi, Guido; Volpi, Matteo; Volpini, Giovanni; von der Schmitt, Hans; von Loeben, Joerg; von Radziewski, Holger; von Toerne, Eckhard; Vorobel, Vit; Vorobiev, Alexander; Vorwerk, Volker; Vos, Marcel; Voss, Rudiger; Voss, Thorsten Tobias; Vossebeld, Joost; Vranjes, Nenad; Vranjes Milosavljevic, Marija; Vrba, Vaclav; Vreeswijk, Marcel; Vu Anh, Tuan; Vuillermet, Raphael; Vukotic, Ilija; Wagner, Wolfgang; Wagner, Peter; Wahlen, Helmut; Wakabayashi, Jun; Walbersloh, Jorg; Walch, Shannon; Walder, James; Walker, Rodney; Walkowiak, Wolfgang; Wall, Richard; Waller, Peter; Wang, Chiho; Wang, Haichen; Wang, Hulin; Wang, Jike; Wang, Jin; Wang, Joshua C; Wang, Rui; Wang, Song-Ming; Warburton, Andreas; Ward, Patricia; Warsinsky, Markus; Watkins, Peter; Watson, Alan; Watson, Ian; Watson, Miriam; Watts, Gordon; Watts, Stephen; Waugh, Anthony; Waugh, Ben; Weber, Marc; Weber, Michele; Weber, Pavel; Weidberg, Anthony; Weigell, Philipp; Weingarten, Jens; Weiser, Christian; Wellenstein, Hermann; Wells, Phillippa; Wen, Mei; Wenaus, Torre; Wendland, Dennis; Wendler, Shanti; Weng, Zhili; Wengler, Thorsten; Wenig, Siegfried; Wermes, Norbert; Werner, Matthias; Werner, Per; Werth, Michael; Wessels, Martin; Weydert, Carole; Whalen, Kathleen; Wheeler-Ellis, Sarah Jane; Whitaker, Scott; White, Andrew; White, Martin; Whitehead, Samuel Robert; Whiteson, Daniel; Whittington, Denver; Wicek, Francois; Wicke, Daniel; Wickens, Fred; Wiedenmann, Werner; Wielers, Monika; Wienemann, Peter; Wiglesworth, Craig; Wiik, Liv Antje Mari; Wijeratne, Peter Alexander; Wildauer, Andreas; Wildt, Martin Andre; Wilhelm, Ivan; Wilkens, Henric George; Will, Jonas Zacharias; Williams, Eric; Williams, Hugh; Willis, William; Willocq, Stephane; Wilson, John; Wilson, Michael Galante; Wilson, Alan; Wingerter-Seez, Isabelle; Winkelmann, Stefan; Winklmeier, Frank; Wittgen, Matthias; Wolter, Marcin Wladyslaw; Wolters, Helmut; Wong, Wei-Cheng; Wooden, Gemma; Wosiek, Barbara; Wotschack, Jorg; Woudstra, Martin; Wozniak, Krzysztof; Wraight, Kenneth; Wright, Catherine; Wright, Michael; Wrona, Bozydar; Wu, Sau Lan; Wu, Xin; Wu, Yusheng; Wulf, Evan; Wunstorf, Renate; Wynne, Benjamin; Xella, Stefania; Xiao, Meng; Xie, Song; Xie, Yigang; Xu, Chao; Xu, Da; Xu, Guofa; Yabsley, Bruce; Yacoob, Sahal; Yamada, Miho; Yamaguchi, Hiroshi; Yamamoto, Akira; Yamamoto, Kyoko; Yamamoto, Shimpei; Yamamura, Taiki; Yamanaka, Takashi; Yamaoka, Jared; Yamazaki, Takayuki; Yamazaki, Yuji; Yan, Zhen; Yang, Haijun; Yang, Un-Ki; Yang, Yi; Yang, Yi; Yang, Zhaoyu; Yanush, Serguei; Yao, Yushu; Yasu, Yoshiji; Ybeles Smit, Gabriel Valentijn; Ye, Jingbo; Ye, Shuwei; Yilmaz, Metin; Yoosoofmiya, Reza; Yorita, Kohei; Yoshida, Riktura; Young, Charles; Youssef, Saul; Yu, Dantong; Yu, Jaehoon; Yu, Jie; Yuan, Li; Yurkewicz, Adam; Zabinski, Bartlomiej; Zaets, Vassilli; Zaidan, Remi; Zaitsev, Alexander; Zajacova, Zuzana; Zanello, Lucia; Zarzhitsky, Pavel; Zaytsev, Alexander; Zeitnitz, Christian; Zeller, Michael; Zeman, Martin; Zemla, Andrzej; Zendler, Carolin; Zenin, Oleg; Ženiš, Tibor; Zenonos, Zenonas; Zenz, Seth; Zerwas, Dirk; Zevi della Porta, Giovanni; Zhan, Zhichao; Zhang, Dongliang; Zhang, Huaqiao; Zhang, Jinlong; Zhang, Xueyao; Zhang, Zhiqing; Zhao, Long; Zhao, Tianchi; Zhao, Zhengguo; Zhemchugov, Alexey; Zheng, Shuchen; Zhong, Jiahang; Zhou, Bing; Zhou, Ning; Zhou, Yue; Zhu, Cheng Guang; Zhu, Hongbo; Zhu, Junjie; Zhu, Yingchun; Zhuang, Xuai; Zhuravlov, Vadym; Zieminska, Daria; Zimmermann, Robert; Zimmermann, Simone; Zimmermann, Stephanie; Ziolkowski, Michael; Zitoun, Robert; Živković, Lidija; Zmouchko, Viatcheslav; Zobernig, Georg; Zoccoli, Antonio; Zolnierowski, Yves; Zsenei, Andras; zur Nedden, Martin; Zutshi, Vishnu; Zwalinski, Lukasz

2013-03-02

The uncertainty on the calorimeter energy response to jets of particles is derived for the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). First, the calorimeter response to single isolated charged hadrons is measured and compared to the Monte Carlo simulation using proton-proton collisions at centre-of-mass energies of $\\sqrt{s}$ = 900 GeV and 7 TeV collected during 2009 and 2010. Then, using the decay of K_s and Lambda particles, the calorimeter response to specific types of particles (positively and negatively charged pions, protons, and anti-protons) is measured and compared to the Monte Carlo predictions. Finally, the jet energy scale uncertainty is determined by propagating the response uncertainty for single charged and neutral particles to jets. The response uncertainty is 2-5% for central isolated hadrons and 1-3% for the final calorimeter jet energy scale.

The impact of residential, commercial, and transport energy demand uncertainties in Asia on climate change mitigation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koljonen, Tiina; Lehtilä, Antti

2012-01-01

Energy consumption in residential, commercial and transport sectors have been growing rapidly in the non-OECD Asian countries over the last decades, and the trend is expected to continue over the coming decades as well. However, the per capita projections for energy demand in these particular sectors often seem to be very low compared to the OECD average until 2050, and it is clear that the scenario assessments of final energy demands in these sectors include large uncertainties. In this paper, a sensitivity analysis have been carried out to study the impact of higher rates of energy demand growths in the non-OECD Asia on global mitigation costs. The long term energy and emission scenarios for China, India and South-East Asia have been contributed as a part of Asian Modeling Exercise (AME). The scenarios presented have been modeled by using a global TIMES-VTT energy system model, which is based on the IEA-ETSAP TIMES energy system modeling framework and the global ETSAP-TIAM model. Our scenario results indicate that the impacts of accelerated energy demand in the non-OECD Asia has a relatively small impact on the global marginal costs of greenhouse gas abatement. However, with the accelerated demand projections, the average per capita greenhouse gas emissions in the OECD were decreased while China, India, and South-East Asia increased their per capita greenhouse gas emissions. This indicates that the costs of the greenhouse gas abatement would especially increase in the OECD region, if developing Asian countries increase their final energy consumption more rapidly than expected. - Highlights: ► Scenarios of final energy demands in developing Asia include large uncertainties. ► Impact of accelerated Asian energy demand on global mitigation costs is quite low. ► Accelerated Asian energy consumption increases GHG abatement costs in the OECD. ► 3.7 W/m 3 target is feasible in costs even with accelerated Asian energy demands. ► 2.6 W/m 2 target is beyond

Minimal Self-Models and the Free Energy Principle

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jakub eLimanowski

2013-09-01

Full Text Available The term "minimal phenomenal selfhood" describes the basic, pre-reflective experience of being a self (Blanke & Metzinger, 2009. Theoretical accounts of the minimal self have long recognized the importance and the ambivalence of the body as both part of the physical world, and the enabling condition for being in this world (Gallagher, 2005; Grafton, 2009. A recent account of minimal phenomenal selfhood (MPS, Metzinger, 2004a centers on the consideration that minimal selfhood emerges as the result of basic self-modeling mechanisms, thereby being founded on pre-reflective bodily processes. The free energy principle (FEP, Friston, 2010 is a novel unified theory of cortical function that builds upon the imperative that self-organizing systems entail hierarchical generative models of the causes of their sensory input, which are optimized by minimizing free energy as an approximation of the log-likelihood of the model. The implementation of the FEP via predictive coding mechanisms and in particular the active inference principle emphasizes the role of embodiment for predictive self-modeling, which has been appreciated in recent publications. In this review, we provide an overview of these conceptions and illustrate thereby the potential power of the FEP in explaining the mechanisms underlying minimal selfhood and its key constituents, multisensory integration, interoception, agency, perspective, and the experience of mineness. We conclude that the conceptualization of MPS can be well mapped onto a hierarchical generative model furnished by the free energy principle and may constitute the basis for higher-level, cognitive forms of self-referral, as well as the understanding of other minds.

Energy conservation and the principle of equivalence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haugan, M.P.

1979-01-01

If the equivalence principle is violated, then observers performing local experiments can detect effects due to their position in an external gravitational environment (preferred-location effects) or can detect effects due to their velocity through some preferred frame (preferred frame effects). We show that the principle of energy conservation implies a quantitative connection between such effects and structure-dependence of the gravitational acceleration of test bodies (violation of the Weak Equivalence Principle). We analyze this connection within a general theoretical framework that encompasses both non-gravitational local experiments and test bodies as well as gravitational experiments and test bodies, and we use it to discuss specific experimental tests of the equivalence principle, including non-gravitational tests such as gravitational redshift experiments, Eoetvoes experiments, the Hughes-Drever experiment, and the Turner-Hill experiment, and gravitational tests such as the lunar-laser-ranging ''Eoetvoes'' experiment, and measurements of anisotropies and variations in the gravitational constant. This framework is illustrated by analyses within two theoretical formalisms for studying gravitational theories: the PPN formalism, which deals with the motion of gravitating bodies within metric theories of gravity, and the THepsilonμ formalism that deals with the motion of charged particles within all metric theories and a broad class of non-metric theories of gravity

Modelling transient energy release from molten fuel coolant interaction debris

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fletcher, D.F.

1984-05-01

A simple model of transient energy release in a Molten Fuel Coolant Interaction is presented. A distributed heat transfer model is used to examine the effect of heat transfer coefficient, time available for rapid energy heat transfer and particle size on transient energy release. The debris is assumed to have an Upper Limit Lognormal distribution. Model predictions are compared with results from the SUW series of experiments which used thermite-generated uranium dioxide molybdenum melts released below the surface of a pool of water. Uncertainties in the physical principles involved in the calculation of energy transfer rates are discussed. (author)

Uncertainty analysis of accident notification time and emergency medical service response time in work zone traffic accidents.

Science.gov (United States)

Meng, Qiang; Weng, Jinxian

2013-01-01

Taking into account the uncertainty caused by exogenous factors, the accident notification time (ANT) and emergency medical service (EMS) response time were modeled as 2 random variables following the lognormal distribution. Their mean values and standard deviations were respectively formulated as the functions of environmental variables including crash time, road type, weekend, holiday, light condition, weather, and work zone type. Work zone traffic accident data from the Fatality Analysis Report System between 2002 and 2009 were utilized to determine the distributions of the ANT and the EMS arrival time in the United States. A mixed logistic regression model, taking into account the uncertainty associated with the ANT and the EMS response time, was developed to estimate the risk of death. The results showed that the uncertainty of the ANT was primarily influenced by crash time and road type, whereas the uncertainty of EMS response time is greatly affected by road type, weather, and light conditions. In addition, work zone accidents occurring during a holiday and in poor light conditions were found to be statistically associated with a longer mean ANT and longer EMS response time. The results also show that shortening the ANT was a more effective approach in reducing the risk of death than the EMS response time in work zones. To shorten the ANT and the EMS response time, work zone activities are suggested to be undertaken during non-holidays, during the daytime, and in good weather and light conditions.

Energy, time and consciousness. The world like a river of no return

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tributsch, Helmut

2008-01-01

I have come to the remarkable conclusion, that the energy concept in classical physics and in quantum physics are not identical. The energy of a quantum system does not loose working ability when diluted, as little as ''quantum correlated'' particles loose information when being separated in space. The main message of this book is that by extending our concept of energy, by giving it a dynamic, time-space-oriented property, we can get rid of the counter-intuitive aspects of quantum physics and the theory of relativity and get access to the enigma of time. The 'time-orienting' role of energy readily explains why the physical, biological, psychological and cosmological time arrows are all the same. Time-oriented energy is linked with a time arrow via a vectorial Heisenberg-type relation which expresses time generation as a succession of time-intervals between cause and effect during energy dissipation. Macroscopically this relation becomes the (vectorial) principle of least action which is also suggested to dominate evolution of the universe. Einstein's clock-time corresponds to a ''sleeping'' energy and thus only applies to ''non-dissipation'' cases, which explains verification of the theory of relativity with quantum processes. When dynamic energy is not a hidden variable, such as in most macroscopic processes and life phenomena, time cannot be separated from energy during relativistic transformations. It only transforms as action (energy x time), which is invariant for all relativistic frames and causes real ''action'' time to follow dynamic action along a path of minimum action. Relativistic time travel paradoxes thus disappear for living energy dissipating systems. As a consequence of application of the principle of minimum action to cosmology, the cosmological red shift is derived to simply express a slower time flow the further we look into space and thus into the past. Also, the discovered nature of quantum phenomena, as states of enforced reversibility

Energy assessment of peri-urban horticulture and its uncertainty: Case study for Bogota, Colombia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bojaca, C.R. [Centro de Investigaciones y Asesorias Agroindustriales, Facultad de Ciencias Naturales, Universidad de Bogota Jorge Tadeo Lozano, P.O. Box: 140196, Chia (Colombia); Schrevens, E. [Department of Biosystems, Faculty of Applied Bioscience Engineering, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Geo-Institute, Celestijnenlaan 200 E, 3001 Heverlee (Belgium)

2010-05-15

Scarce information is available about the energy use pattern of horticultural commodities in general and more specifically for peri-urban horticulture. Peri-urban horticulture in the outskirts of Bogota is an important source of vegetables for Colombia's capital city. Based on detailed follow-ups and periodic field measurements an output-input energy balance was performed with the main objective to study the energy use efficiency of those systems. An uncertainty analysis on the input factors and on the energy equivalents was then applied. Over a measurement period of 18-month, the energy use for coriander, lettuce, radish and spinach was investigated, respectively 12.1, 18.8, 6.6 and 10.7 GJ ha{sup -1} were consumed in these cropping systems. Negative balances were observed for all species exception made for spinach where an output:input ratio of 1.16 was found. The two-way uncertainty analysis showed the highest uncertainty for N-based fertilization while no significant effect was observed for seeds in direct sowing crops. Sustainability of peri-urban horticulture around Bogota is compromised not only because of the city expansion but also due to its inefficient energy use. Technical improvements are required to ensure the environmental subsistence of this important sector for the metropolitan area of the city. (author)

A Bayesian foundation for individual learning under uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christoph eMathys

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Computational learning models are critical for understanding mechanisms of adaptive behavior. However, the two major current frameworks, reinforcement learning (RL and Bayesian learning, both have certain limitations. For example, many Bayesian models are agnostic of inter-individual variability and involve complicated integrals, making online learning difficult. Here, we introduce a generic hierarchical Bayesian framework for individual learning under multiple forms of uncertainty (e.g., environmental volatility and perceptual uncertainty. The model assumes Gaussian random walks of states at all but the first level, with the step size determined by the next higher level. The coupling between levels is controlled by parameters that shape the influence of uncertainty on learning in a subject-specific fashion. Using variational Bayes under a mean field approximation and a novel approximation to the posterior energy function, we derive trial-by-trial update equations which (i are analytical and extremely efficient, enabling real-time learning, (ii have a natural interpretation in terms of RL, and (iii contain parameters representing processes which play a key role in current theories of learning, e.g., precision-weighting of prediction error. These parameters allow for the expression of individual differences in learning and may relate to specific neuromodulatory mechanisms in the brain. Our model is very general: it can deal with both discrete and continuous states and equally accounts for deterministic and probabilistic relations between environmental events and perceptual states (i.e., situations with and without perceptual uncertainty. These properties are illustrated by simulations and analyses of empirical time series. Overall, our framework provides a novel foundation for understanding normal and pathological learning that contextualizes RL within a generic Bayesian scheme and thus connects it to principles of optimality from probability

A bayesian foundation for individual learning under uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Mathys, Christoph; Daunizeau, Jean; Friston, Karl J; Stephan, Klaas E

2011-01-01

Computational learning models are critical for understanding mechanisms of adaptive behavior. However, the two major current frameworks, reinforcement learning (RL) and Bayesian learning, both have certain limitations. For example, many Bayesian models are agnostic of inter-individual variability and involve complicated integrals, making online learning difficult. Here, we introduce a generic hierarchical Bayesian framework for individual learning under multiple forms of uncertainty (e.g., environmental volatility and perceptual uncertainty). The model assumes Gaussian random walks of states at all but the first level, with the step size determined by the next highest level. The coupling between levels is controlled by parameters that shape the influence of uncertainty on learning in a subject-specific fashion. Using variational Bayes under a mean-field approximation and a novel approximation to the posterior energy function, we derive trial-by-trial update equations which (i) are analytical and extremely efficient, enabling real-time learning, (ii) have a natural interpretation in terms of RL, and (iii) contain parameters representing processes which play a key role in current theories of learning, e.g., precision-weighting of prediction error. These parameters allow for the expression of individual differences in learning and may relate to specific neuromodulatory mechanisms in the brain. Our model is very general: it can deal with both discrete and continuous states and equally accounts for deterministic and probabilistic relations between environmental events and perceptual states (i.e., situations with and without perceptual uncertainty). These properties are illustrated by simulations and analyses of empirical time series. Overall, our framework provides a novel foundation for understanding normal and pathological learning that contextualizes RL within a generic Bayesian scheme and thus connects it to principles of optimality from probability theory.

Modeling Uncertainty and the Economics of Climate Change. Recommendations for Robust Energy Policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haurie, A.; Tavoni, M.; Van der Zwaan, B.C.C.

2011-01-01

This special issue is meant to gather front-edge research and innovative analysis in the modeling of uncertainty related to the economics of climate change. The focus is notably on advancements in probabilistic integrated assessment modeling and stochastic analysis of climate futures. The possibility to use non-probabilistic economic methods to treat uncertainty in global or regional dynamic climate change models is explored as well. Given the intimate link between climate change and the nature of mankind's energy production and consumption system, this special issue also proffers direct practical recommendations for energy decision making at the global, regional, and national levels. The special issue originated from a series of research tasks carried out under the PLANETS project, funded by the European Commission under its 7th Framework Programme and co-coordinated by the Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) and the Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN). This project, accomplished in 2010, had, as main focus, how to incorporate uncertainty when carrying out numerical analysis of climate and energy policies. A special PLANETS session was organized during the 2010 edition of the International Energy Workshop (IEW 2010, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm), which generated broad expert discussion on both methodology and policy-related issues. The recognition of the importance of these topics and the diversity of approaches undertaken, plus a concern over them becoming fragmented in the literature, constituted the motivation to edit this special issue gathering the generated material in one orchestrated publication. Several contributions, in the form of 12 papers, have been brought together with the aim of providing a comprehensive overview of some of the main recent developments in the modeling of uncertainty in the economics of climate change. We categorize these 12 articles in five distinct domains in hybrid integrated assessment EEE (Energy

Modeling Uncertainty and the Economics of Climate Change. Recommendations for Robust Energy Policy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Haurie, A. [ORDECSYS, Geneva (Switzerland); Tavoni, M. [Princeton University, Princeton, NJ (United States); Van der Zwaan, B.C.C. [Policy Studies Department, Energy research Centre of the Netherlands ECN, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

2011-07-15

This special issue is meant to gather front-edge research and innovative analysis in the modeling of uncertainty related to the economics of climate change. The focus is notably on advancements in probabilistic integrated assessment modeling and stochastic analysis of climate futures. The possibility to use non-probabilistic economic methods to treat uncertainty in global or regional dynamic climate change models is explored as well. Given the intimate link between climate change and the nature of mankind's energy production and consumption system, this special issue also proffers direct practical recommendations for energy decision making at the global, regional, and national levels. The special issue originated from a series of research tasks carried out under the PLANETS project, funded by the European Commission under its 7th Framework Programme and co-coordinated by the Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) and the Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN). This project, accomplished in 2010, had, as main focus, how to incorporate uncertainty when carrying out numerical analysis of climate and energy policies. A special PLANETS session was organized during the 2010 edition of the International Energy Workshop (IEW 2010, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm), which generated broad expert discussion on both methodology and policy-related issues. The recognition of the importance of these topics and the diversity of approaches undertaken, plus a concern over them becoming fragmented in the literature, constituted the motivation to edit this special issue gathering the generated material in one orchestrated publication. Several contributions, in the form of 12 papers, have been brought together with the aim of providing a comprehensive overview of some of the main recent developments in the modeling of uncertainty in the economics of climate change. We categorize these 12 articles in five distinct domains in hybrid integrated assessment EEE (Energy

Ultra-high energy physics and standard basic principles

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gonzalez-Mestres Luis

2014-04-01

Full Text Available It has not yet been elucidated whether the observed flux suppression for ultra-high energy cosmic rays (UHECR at energies above ≃ 4 x 1019 eV is a signature of the Greisen-Zatsepin-Kuzmin (GZK cutoff or a consequence of other phenomena. In both cases, violations of the standard fundamental principles of Physics can be present and play a significant role. They can in particular modify cosmic-ray interactions, propagation or acceleration at very high energy. Thus, in a long-term program, UHECR data can hopefully be used to test relativity, quantum mechanics, energy and momentum conservation, vacuum properties... as well as the elementariness of standard particles. Data on cosmic rays at energies ≃ 1020 eV may also be sensitive to new physics generated well beyond Planck scale. A typical example is provided by the search for possible signatures of a Lorentz symmetry violation (LSV associated to a privileged local reference frame (the "vacuum rest frame", VRF. If a VRF exists, the internal structure of standard particles at ultra-high energy can undergo substantial modifications. Similarly, the conventional particle symmetries may cease to be valid at such energies instead of heading to a grand unification and the structure of vacuum may no longer be governed by standard quantum field theory. Then, the question whether the notion of Planck scale still makes sense clearly becomes relevant and the very grounds of Cosmology can undergo essential modifications. UHECR studies naturally interact with the interpretation of WMAP and Planck observations. Recent Planck data analyses tend to confirm the possible existence of a privileged space direction. If the observed phenomenon turns out to be a signature of the spinorial space-time (SST we suggested in 1996-97, then conventional Particle Physics may correspond to the local properties of standard matter at low enough energy and large enough distances. This would clearly strengthen the cosmological

High energy cosmic neutrinos and the equivalence principle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Minakata, H.

1996-01-01

Observation of ultra-high energy neutrinos, in particular detection of ν τ , from cosmologically distant sources like active galactic nuclei (AGN) opens new possibilities to search for neutrino flavor conversion. We consider the effects of violation of the equivalence principle (VEP) on propagation of these cosmic neutrinos. In particular, we discuss two effects: (1) the oscillations of neutrinos due to VEP in the gravitational field of our Galaxy and in the intergalactic space; (2) resonance flavor conversion driven by the gravitational potential of AGN. We show that ultra-high energies of the neutrinos as well as cosmological distances to AGN, or strong AGN gravitational potential allow to improve the accuracy of testing of the equivalence principle by 25 orders of magnitude for massless neutrinos (Δf ∼ 10 -41 ) and by 11 orders of magnitude for massive neutrinos (Δf ∼ 10 -28 x (Δm 2 /1eV 2 )). The experimental signatures of the transitions induced by VEP are discussed. (author). 17 refs

New Inequalities and Uncertainty Relations on Linear Canonical Transform Revisit

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xu Guanlei

2009-01-01

Full Text Available The uncertainty principle plays an important role in mathematics, physics, signal processing, and so on. Firstly, based on definition of the linear canonical transform (LCT and the traditional Pitt's inequality, one novel Pitt's inequality in the LCT domains is obtained, which is connected with the LCT parameters a and b. Then one novel logarithmic uncertainty principle is derived from this novel Pitt's inequality in the LCT domains, which is associated with parameters of the two LCTs. Secondly, from the relation between the original function and LCT, one entropic uncertainty principle and one Heisenberg's uncertainty principle in the LCT domains are derived, which are associated with the LCT parameters a and b. The reason why the three lower bounds are only associated with LCT parameters a and b and independent of c and d is presented. The results show it is possible that the bounds tend to zeros.

Change and uncertainty in quantum systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Franson, J.D.

1996-01-01

A simple inequality shows that any change in the expectation value of an observable quantity must be associated with some degree of uncertainty. This inequality is often more restrictive than the Heisenberg uncertainty principle. copyright 1996 The American Physical Society

Equilibration and analysis of first-principles molecular dynamics simulations of water

Science.gov (United States)

Dawson, William; Gygi, François

2018-03-01

First-principles molecular dynamics (FPMD) simulations based on density functional theory are becoming increasingly popular for the description of liquids. In view of the high computational cost of these simulations, the choice of an appropriate equilibration protocol is critical. We assess two methods of estimation of equilibration times using a large dataset of first-principles molecular dynamics simulations of water. The Gelman-Rubin potential scale reduction factor [A. Gelman and D. B. Rubin, Stat. Sci. 7, 457 (1992)] and the marginal standard error rule heuristic proposed by White [Simulation 69, 323 (1997)] are evaluated on a set of 32 independent 64-molecule simulations of 58 ps each, amounting to a combined cumulative time of 1.85 ns. The availability of multiple independent simulations also allows for an estimation of the variance of averaged quantities, both within MD runs and between runs. We analyze atomic trajectories, focusing on correlations of the Kohn-Sham energy, pair correlation functions, number of hydrogen bonds, and diffusion coefficient. The observed variability across samples provides a measure of the uncertainty associated with these quantities, thus facilitating meaningful comparisons of different approximations used in the simulations. We find that the computed diffusion coefficient and average number of hydrogen bonds are affected by a significant uncertainty in spite of the large size of the dataset used. A comparison with classical simulations using the TIP4P/2005 model confirms that the variability of the diffusivity is also observed after long equilibration times. Complete atomic trajectories and simulation output files are available online for further analysis.

Uncertainty analysis of power monitoring transit time ultrasonic flow meters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Orosz, A.; Miller, D. W.; Christensen, R. N.; Arndt, S.

2006-01-01

A general uncertainty analysis is applied to chordal, transit time ultrasonic flow meters that are used in nuclear power plant feedwater loops. This investigation focuses on relationships between the major parameters of the flow measurement. For this study, mass flow rate is divided into three components, profile factor, density, and a form of volumetric flow rate. All system parameters are used to calculate values for these three components. Uncertainty is analyzed using a perturbation method. Sensitivity coefficients for major system parameters are shown, and these coefficients are applicable to a range of ultrasonic flow meters used in similar applications. Also shown is the uncertainty to be expected for density along with its relationship to other system uncertainties. One other conclusion is that pipe diameter sensitivity coefficients may be a function of the calibration technique used. (authors)

Stochastic–multiobjective market equilibrium analysis of a demand response program in energy market under uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hu, Ming-Che; Lu, Su-Ying; Chen, Yen-Haw

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Analyze the impact of a demand response program under uncertainty. • Stochastic Nash–Cournot competition model is formulated. • Case study of the Taiwanese electric power market is conducted. • Demand response decreases power price, generation, and emissions. • Demand uncertainty increases energy price and supply risk in the results. - Abstract: In the electricity market, demand response programs are designed to shift peak demand and enhance system reliability. A demand response program can reduce peak energy demand, power transmission congestion, or high energy-price conditions by changing consumption patterns. The purpose of this research is to analyze the impact of a demand response program in the energy market, under demand uncertainty. A stochastic–multiobjective Nash–Cournot competition model is formulated to simulate demand response in an uncertain energy market. Then, Karush–Kuhn–Tucker optimality conditions and a linear complementarity problem are derived for the stochastic Nash–Cournot model. Accordingly, the linear complementarity problem is solved and its stochastic market equilibrium solution is determined by using a general algebraic modeling system. Additionally, the case of the Taiwanese electric power market is taken up here, and the results show that a demand response program is capable of reducing peak energy consumption, energy price, and carbon dioxide emissions. The results show that demand response program decreases electricity price by 2–10%, total electricity generation by 0.5–2%, and carbon dioxide emissions by 0.5–2.5% in the Taiwanese power market. In the simulation, demand uncertainty leads to an 2–7% increase in energy price and supply risk in the market. Additionally, tradeoffs between cost and carbon dioxide emissions are presented.

Classical field theory in the space of reference frames. [Space-time manifold, action principle

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Toller, M [Dipartimento di Matematica e Fisica, Libera Universita, Trento (Italy)

1978-03-11

The formalism of classical field theory is generalized by replacing the space-time manifold M by the ten-dimensional manifold S of all the local reference frames. The geometry of the manifold S is determined by ten vector fields corresponding to ten operationally defined infinitesimal transformations of the reference frames. The action principle is written in terms of a differential 4-form in the space S (the Lagrangian form). Densities and currents are represented by differential 3-forms in S. The field equations and the connection between symmetries and conservation laws (Noether's theorem) are derived from the action principle. Einstein's theory of gravitation and Maxwell's theory of electromagnetism are reformulated in this language. The general formalism can also be used to formulate theories in which charge, energy and momentum cannot be localized in space-time and even theories in which a space-time manifold cannot be defined exactly in any useful way.

Tightness Entropic Uncertainty Relation in Quantum Markovian-Davies Environment

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Jun; Liu, Liang; Han, Yan

2018-05-01

In this paper, we investigate the tightness of entropic uncertainty relation in the absence (presence) of the quantum memory which the memory particle being weakly coupled to a decohering Davies-type Markovian environment. The results show that the tightness of the quantum uncertainty relation can be controlled by the energy relaxation time F, the dephasing time G and the rescaled temperature p, the perfect tightness can be arrived by dephasing and energy relaxation satisfying F = 2G and p = 1/2. In addition, the tightness of the memory-assisted entropic uncertainty relation and the entropic uncertainty relation can be influenced mainly by the purity. While in memory-assisted model, the purity and quantum correlation can also influence the tightness actively while the quantum entanglement can influence the tightness slightly.

New product development projects evaluation under time uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thiago Augusto de Oliveira Silva

2009-12-01

Full Text Available The development time is one of the key factors that contribute to the new product development success. In spite of that, the impact of the time uncertainty on the development has been not fully exploited, as far as decision supporting models to evaluate this kind of projects is concerned. In this context, the objective of the present paper is to evaluate the development process of new technologies under time uncertainty. We introduce a model which captures this source of uncertainty and develop an algorithm to evaluate projects that incorporates Monte Carlo Simulation and Dynamic Programming. The novelty in our approach is to thoroughly blend the stochastic time with a formal approach to the problem, which preserves the Markov property. We base our model on the distinction between the decision epoch and the stochastic time. We discuss and illustrate the applicability of our model through an empirical example.O tempo de desenvolvimento é um dos fatores-chave que contribuem para o sucesso do desenvolvimento de novos produtos. Apesar disso, o impacto da incerteza de tempo no desenvolvimento tem sido pouco considerado em modelos de avaliação e valoração deste tipo de projetos. Neste contexto, este trabalho tem como objetivo avaliar projetos de desenvolvimento de novas tecnologias mediante o tempo incerto. Introduzimos um modelo capaz de captar esta fonte de incerteza e desenvolvemos um algoritmo para a valoração do projeto que integra Simulação de Monte Carlo e Programação Dinâmica. A novidade neste trabalho é conseguir integrar meticulosamente o tempo estocástico a uma estrutura formal para tomada de decisão que preserva a propriedade de Markov. O principal ponto para viabilizar este fato é distinção entre o momento de revisão e o tempo estocástico. Ilustramos e discutimos a aplicabilidade deste modelo por meio de um exemplo empírico.

Balancing Exploration, Uncertainty Representation and Computational Time in Many-Objective Reservoir Policy Optimization

Science.gov (United States)

Zatarain-Salazar, J.; Reed, P. M.; Quinn, J.; Giuliani, M.; Castelletti, A.

2016-12-01

As we confront the challenges of managing river basin systems with a large number of reservoirs and increasingly uncertain tradeoffs impacting their operations (due to, e.g. climate change, changing energy markets, population pressures, ecosystem services, etc.), evolutionary many-objective direct policy search (EMODPS) solution strategies will need to address the computational demands associated with simulating more uncertainties and therefore optimizing over increasingly noisy objective evaluations. Diagnostic assessments of state-of-the-art many-objective evolutionary algorithms (MOEAs) to support EMODPS have highlighted that search time (or number of function evaluations) and auto-adaptive search are key features for successful optimization. Furthermore, auto-adaptive MOEA search operators are themselves sensitive to having a sufficient number of function evaluations to learn successful strategies for exploring complex spaces and for escaping from local optima when stagnation is detected. Fortunately, recent parallel developments allow coordinated runs that enhance auto-adaptive algorithmic learning and can handle scalable and reliable search with limited wall-clock time, but at the expense of the total number of function evaluations. In this study, we analyze this tradeoff between parallel coordination and depth of search using different parallelization schemes of the Multi-Master Borg on a many-objective stochastic control problem. We also consider the tradeoff between better representing uncertainty in the stochastic optimization, and simplifying this representation to shorten the function evaluation time and allow for greater search. Our analysis focuses on the Lower Susquehanna River Basin (LSRB) system where multiple competing objectives for hydropower production, urban water supply, recreation and environmental flows need to be balanced. Our results provide guidance for balancing exploration, uncertainty, and computational demands when using the EMODPS

A maximum principle for time dependent transport in systems with voids

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schofield, S.L.; Ackroyd, R.T.

1996-01-01

A maximum principle is developed for the first-order time dependent Boltzmann equation. The maximum principle is a generalization of Schofield's κ(θ) principle for the first-order steady state Boltzmann equation, and provides a treatment of time dependent transport in systems with void regions. The formulation comprises a direct least-squares minimization allied with a suitable choice of bilinear functional, and gives rise to a maximum principle whose functional is free of terms that have previously led to difficulties in treating void regions. (Author)

Uncertainty analyses of unsaturated zone travel time at Yucca Mountain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nichols, W.E.; Freshley, M.D.

1993-01-01

Uncertainty analysis method can be applied to numerical models of ground-water flow to estimate the relative importance of physical and hydrologic input variables with respect to ground-water travel time. Monte Carlo numerical simulations of unsaturated flow in the Calico Hills nonwelded zeolitic (CHnz) layer at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, indicate that variability in recharge, and to a lesser extent in matrix porosity, explains most of the variability in predictions of water travel time through the unsaturated zone. Variations in saturated hydraulic conductivity and unsaturated curve-fitting parameters were not statistically significant in explaining variability in water travel time through the unsaturated CHnz unit. The results of this study suggest that the large uncertainty associated with recharge rate estimates for the Yucca Mountain site is of concern because the performance of the potential repository would be more sensitive to uncertainty in recharge than to any other parameter evaluated. These results are not exhaustive because of the limited site characterization data available and because of the preliminary nature of this study, which is limited to a single stratigraphic unit, one dimension, and does not account for fracture flow or other potential fast pathways at Yucca Mountain

Principle design of an energy efficient transfemoral prosthesis.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Veltink, P.H.; Ünal, Ramazan; Eberle, W.; Hekman, Edsko E.G.; Carloni, Raffaella; Koopman, Hubertus F.J.M.; Stramigioli, Stefano

2009-01-01

In the pursuit of realizing an energy efficient transfemoral prosthetic, in this paper we present a preliminary study on a principle design. In particular, the design is based on the idea that the efficiency of the system can be realized by energetically coupling the knee and the ankle joints. In

Uncertainty analysis of time-dependent nonlinear systems: theory and application to transient thermal hydraulics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barhen, J.; Bjerke, M.A.; Cacuci, D.G.; Mullins, C.B.; Wagschal, G.G.

1982-01-01

An advanced methodology for performing systematic uncertainty analysis of time-dependent nonlinear systems is presented. This methodology includes a capability for reducing uncertainties in system parameters and responses by using Bayesian inference techniques to consistently combine prior knowledge with additional experimental information. The determination of best estimates for the system parameters, for the responses, and for their respective covariances is treated as a time-dependent constrained minimization problem. Three alternative formalisms for solving this problem are developed. The two ''off-line'' formalisms, with and without ''foresight'' characteristics, require the generation of a complete sensitivity data base prior to performing the uncertainty analysis. The ''online'' formalism, in which uncertainty analysis is performed interactively with the system analysis code, is best suited for treatment of large-scale highly nonlinear time-dependent problems. This methodology is applied to the uncertainty analysis of a transient upflow of a high pressure water heat transfer experiment. For comparison, an uncertainty analysis using sensitivities computed by standard response surface techniques is also performed. The results of the analysis indicate the following. Major reduction of the discrepancies in the calculation/experiment ratios is achieved by using the new methodology. Incorporation of in-bundle measurements in the uncertainty analysis significantly reduces system uncertainties. Accuracy of sensitivities generated by response-surface techniques should be carefully assessed prior to using them as a basis for uncertainty analyses of transient reactor safety problems

Machine Learning methods in fitting first-principles total energies for substitutionally disordered solid

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Qin; Yao, Sanxi; Widom, Michael

2015-03-01

Density functional theory (DFT) provides an accurate and first-principles description of solid structures and total energies. However, it is highly time-consuming to calculate structures with hundreds of atoms in the unit cell and almost not possible to calculate thousands of atoms. We apply and adapt machine learning algorithms, including compressive sensing, support vector regression and artificial neural networks to fit the DFT total energies of substitutionally disordered boron carbide. The nonparametric kernel method is also included in our models. Our fitted total energy model reproduces the DFT energies with prediction error of around 1 meV/atom. The assumptions of these machine learning models and applications of the fitted total energies will also be discussed. Financial support from McWilliams Fellowship and the ONR-MURI under the Grant No. N00014-11-1-0678 is gratefully acknowledged.

High-energy cosmic rays and tests of basic principles of Physics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gonzalez-Mestres L.

2014-04-01

Full Text Available With the present understanding of data, the observed flux suppression for ultra-high energy cosmic rays (UHECR at energies above 4.1019 eV can be a signature of the Greisen-Zatsepin-Kuzmin (GZK cutoff or be related to a similar mechanism. But it may also correspond, for instance, to the maximum energies available at the relevant sources. In both cases, violations of special relativity modifying cosmic-ray propagation or acceleration at very high energy can potentially play a role. Other violations of fundamental principles of standard particle physics (quantum mechanics, energy and momentum conservation, vacuum homogeneity and “static” properties, effective space dimensions, quark confinement… can also be relevant at these energies. In particular, UHECR data would in principle allow to set bounds on Lorentz symmetry violation (LSV in patterns incorporating a privileged local reference frame (the “vacuum rest frame”, VRF. But the precise analysis is far from trivial, and other effects can also be present. The effective parameters can be related to Planckscale physics, or even to physics beyond Planck scale, as well as to the dynamics and effective symmetries of LSV for nucleons, quarks, leptons and the photon. LSV can also be at the origin of GZK-like effects. In the presence of a VRF, and contrary to a “grand unification” view, LSV and other violations of standard principles can modify the internal structure of particles at very high energy and conventional symmetries may cease to be valid at energies close to the Planck scale. We present an updated discussion of these topics, including experimental prospects, new potentialities for high-energy cosmic ray phenomenology and the possible link with unconventional pre-Big Bang scenarios, superbradyon (superluminal preon patterns… The subject of a possible superluminal propagation of neutrinos at accelerator energies is also dealt with.

The Uncertainty of Measurement Results

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ambrus, A. [Hungarian Food Safety Office, Budapest (Hungary)

2009-07-15

Factors affecting the uncertainty of measurement are explained, basic statistical formulae given, and the theoretical concept explained in the context of pesticide formulation analysis. Practical guidance is provided on how to determine individual uncertainty components within an analytical procedure. An extended and comprehensive table containing the relevant mathematical/statistical expressions elucidates the relevant underlying principles. Appendix I provides a practical elaborated example on measurement uncertainty estimation, above all utilizing experimental repeatability and reproducibility laboratory data. (author)

A Novel Demand Response Method for Smart Microgrids Related to the Uncertainties of Renewable Energy Resources and Energy Price

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Roofegari Nejad

2016-06-01

Full Text Available This paper presents novel methods for Demand Response (DR programs by considering welfare state of consumers, to deal with the operational uncertainties, such as wind energy and energy price, within the framework of a smart microgrid. In this regard, total loads of microgrid are classified into two groups and each one is represented by a typical load. First group is energy storage capability represents by heater loads and second is curtailment capability loads represents by lighting loads. Next by the proposed DR methods, consumed energy of the all loads is coupled to the wind energy rate and energy price. Finally these methods are applied in the operation of a smart microgrid, consists of dispatchable supplier (microturbine, nondispatchable supplier (wind turbine, energy storage system and loads with the capability of energy exchanging with upstream distribution network. In order to consider uncertainties, Monte Carlo simulation method is used, which various scenarios are generated and applied in the operation of microgrid. In the end, the simulation results on a typical microgrid show that implementing proposed DR methods contributes to increasing total operational profit of smart microgrid and also decreasing the risk of low profit too.

A stochastic multi-agent optimization model for energy infrastructure planning under uncertainty and competition.

Science.gov (United States)

2017-07-04

This paper presents a stochastic multi-agent optimization model that supports energy infrastruc- : ture planning under uncertainty. The interdependence between dierent decision entities in the : system is captured in an energy supply chain network, w...

Uncertainty analysis of an integrated energy system based on information theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fu, Xueqian; Sun, Hongbin; Guo, Qinglai; Pan, Zhaoguang; Xiong, Wen; Wang, Li

2017-01-01

Currently, a custom-designed configuration of different renewable technologies named the integrated energy system (IES) has become popular due to its high efficiency, benefiting from complementary multi-energy technologies. This paper proposes an information entropy approach to quantify uncertainty in an integrated energy system based on a stochastic model that drives a power system model derived from an actual network on Barry Island. Due to the complexity of co-behaviours between generators, a copula-based approach is utilized to articulate the dependency structure of the generator outputs with regard to such factors as weather conditions. Correlation coefficients and mutual information, which are effective for assessing the dependence relationships, are applied to judge whether the stochastic IES model is correct. The calculated information values can be used to analyse the impacts of the coupling of power and heat on power flows and heat flows, and this approach will be helpful for improving the operation of IES. - Highlights: • The paper explores uncertainty of an integrated energy system. • The dependent weather model is verified from the perspective of correlativity. • The IES model considers the dependence between power and heat. • The information theory helps analyse the complexity of IES operation. • The application of the model is studied using an operational system on Barry Island.

Impact of public policy uncertainty on renewable energy investment: Wind power and the production tax credit

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barradale, Merrill Jones

2010-01-01

It is generally understood that the pattern of repeated expiration and short-term renewal of the federal production tax credit (PTC) causes a boom-bust cycle in wind power plant investment in the US. This on-off pattern is detrimental to the wind industry, since ramp-up and ramp-down costs are high, and players are deterred from making long-term investments. It is often assumed that the severe downturn in investment during 'off' years implies that wind power is unviable without the PTC. This assumption turns out to be unsubstantiated: this paper demonstrates that it is not the absence of the PTC that causes the investment downturn during 'off' years, but rather the uncertainty over its return. Specifically, it is the dynamic of power purchase agreement (PPA) negotiations in the face of PTC renewal uncertainty that drives investment volatility. With contract negotiations prevalent in the renewable energy industry, this finding suggests that reducing uncertainty is a crucial component of effective renewable energy policy. The PTC as currently structured is not the only means, existing or potential, for encouraging wind power investment. Using data from a survey of energy professionals, various policy instruments are compared in terms of their perceived stability for supporting long-term investment. - Research highlights: →The case of wind energy investment in the face of PTC uncertainty provides an important study in how industry structure, and in particular the process of contract negotiations, can amplify the impact of public policy uncertainty on corporate investment. →The finding that contract negotiations in the face of uncertainty are sufficient in themselves to hinder investment implies that the assumption that investment downturns reflect unfavorable economics is unfounded. This assumption falsely discourages interest and investment in wind energy. →Policy stability should be added to the list of criteria explicitly considered in designing policy

The holographic principle, the equipartition of energy and Newton’s gravity

Science.gov (United States)

Sadiq, M.

2017-12-01

Assuming the equipartition of energy to hold on a holographic sphere, Erik Verlinde demonstrated that Newton’s gravity follows as an entropic force. Some comments are in place about Verlinde’s assumptions in his derivation. It is pointed out that the holographic principle allows for freedom up to a free scale factor in the choice of Planck scale area while leading to classical gravity. Similarity of this free parameter with the Immirzi parameter of loop quantum gravity is discussed. We point out that the equipartition of energy is inbuilt into the holographic principle and, therefore, need not be assumed from the outset.

Quantum scattering in one-dimensional systems satisfying the minimal length uncertainty relation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bernardo, Reginald Christian S., E-mail: rcbernardo@nip.upd.edu.ph; Esguerra, Jose Perico H., E-mail: jesguerra@nip.upd.edu.ph

2016-12-15

In quantum gravity theories, when the scattering energy is comparable to the Planck energy the Heisenberg uncertainty principle breaks down and is replaced by the minimal length uncertainty relation. In this paper, the consequences of the minimal length uncertainty relation on one-dimensional quantum scattering are studied using an approach involving a recently proposed second-order differential equation. An exact analytical expression for the tunneling probability through a locally-periodic rectangular potential barrier system is obtained. Results show that the existence of a non-zero minimal length uncertainty tends to shift the resonant tunneling energies to the positive direction. Scattering through a locally-periodic potential composed of double-rectangular potential barriers shows that the first band of resonant tunneling energies widens for minimal length cases when the double-rectangular potential barrier is symmetric but narrows down when the double-rectangular potential barrier is asymmetric. A numerical solution which exploits the use of Wronskians is used to calculate the transmission probabilities through the Pöschl–Teller well, Gaussian barrier, and double-Gaussian barrier. Results show that the probability of passage through the Pöschl–Teller well and Gaussian barrier is smaller in the minimal length cases compared to the non-minimal length case. For the double-Gaussian barrier, the probability of passage for energies that are more positive than the resonant tunneling energy is larger in the minimal length cases compared to the non-minimal length case. The approach is exact and applicable to many types of scattering potential.

When Schroedinger's cat mews. the principle of time

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raye, Enid

2005-01-01

The greatest question of mankind newly defined as basic physical principle: What is time? Since 3,000 years philosophy and physics deal with this question. 100 years ago it inspired Albert Einstein to his epoch-making relativity theory. Just so epoch-making seems the answer, which has Enid raye found in the year 2005. Her understanding of the principle of time opens a fundamentally new physical conception of the world - one, in which the relativity works just so as results of quantum physics. Non only that: Our conception of past, present, and future gets a completely new description; our conception of space as well

Practical application of the ALARA principle in management of the nuclear legacy: optimization under uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, Graham; Sneve, Malgorzata K.

2008-01-01

Full text: Radiological protection has a long and distinguished history in taking a balanced approach to optimization. Both utilitarian and individual interests and perspectives are addressed through a process of constrained optimisation, with optimisation intended to lead to the most benefit to the most people, and constraints being operative to limit the degree of inequity among the individuals exposed. At least, expressed simplistically, that is what the recommendations on protection are intended to achieve. This paper examines the difficulties in achieving that objective, based on consideration of the active role of optimisation in regulatory supervision of the historic nuclear legacy. This example is chosen because the application of the ALARA principle has important implications for some very major projects whose objective is remediation of existing legacy facilities. But it is also relevant because timely, effective and cost efficient completion of those projects has implications for confidence in the future development of nuclear power and other uses of radioactive materials. It is also an interesting example because legacy management includes mitigation of some major short and long term hazards, but those mitigating measures themselves involve operations with their own risk, cost and benefit profiles. Like any other complex activity, a legacy management project has to be broken down into logistically feasible parts. However, from a regulatory perspective, simultaneous application of ALARA to worker protection, major accident risk mitigation and long-term environmental and human health protection presents its own challenges. Major uncertainties which exacerbate the problem arise from ill-characterised source terms, estimation of the likelihood of unlikely failures in operational processes, and prospective assessment of radiological impacts over many hundreds of years and longer. The projects themselves are set to run over decades, during which time the

Derivation of an adiabatic time-dependent Hartree-Fock formalism from a variational principle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brink, D.M.; Giannoni, M.J.; Veneroni, M.

1975-10-01

A derivation of the adiabatic time-dependent Hartree-Fock formalism is given, which is based on a variational principle analogous to Hamilton's principle in classical mechanics. The method leads to a Hamiltonian for collective motion which separates into a potential and a kinetic energy and gives mass and potential parameters in terms of the nucleon-nucleon interaction. The adiabatic approximation assumes slow motion but not small amplitudes and can therefore describe anharmonic effects. The RPA is a limiting case where both amplitudes and velocities are small. The variational approach provides a consistent way of extracting coordinated and momenta from the density matrix and of obtaining equations of motion when particular trial forms for this density matrix are chosen. One such choice leads to Thouless-Valatin formula. An other choice leads to irrotational hydrodynamics [fr

Optimization under uncertainty of parallel nonlinear energy sinks

Science.gov (United States)

Boroson, Ethan; Missoum, Samy; Mattei, Pierre-Olivier; Vergez, Christophe

2017-04-01

Nonlinear Energy Sinks (NESs) are a promising technique for passively reducing the amplitude of vibrations. Through nonlinear stiffness properties, a NES is able to passively and irreversibly absorb energy. Unlike the traditional Tuned Mass Damper (TMD), NESs do not require a specific tuning and absorb energy over a wider range of frequencies. Nevertheless, they are still only efficient over a limited range of excitations. In order to mitigate this limitation and maximize the efficiency range, this work investigates the optimization of multiple NESs configured in parallel. It is well known that the efficiency of a NES is extremely sensitive to small perturbations in loading conditions or design parameters. In fact, the efficiency of a NES has been shown to be nearly discontinuous in the neighborhood of its activation threshold. For this reason, uncertainties must be taken into account in the design optimization of NESs. In addition, the discontinuities require a specific treatment during the optimization process. In this work, the objective of the optimization is to maximize the expected value of the efficiency of NESs in parallel. The optimization algorithm is able to tackle design variables with uncertainty (e.g., nonlinear stiffness coefficients) as well as aleatory variables such as the initial velocity of the main system. The optimal design of several parallel NES configurations for maximum mean efficiency is investigated. Specifically, NES nonlinear stiffness properties, considered random design variables, are optimized for cases with 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 10 NESs in parallel. The distributions of efficiency for the optimal parallel configurations are compared to distributions of efficiencies of non-optimized NESs. It is observed that the optimization enables a sharp increase in the mean value of efficiency while reducing the corresponding variance, thus leading to more robust NES designs.

Geostatistical evaluation of travel time uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Devary, J.L.

1983-08-01

Data on potentiometric head and hydraulic conductivity, gathered from the Wolfcamp Formation of the Permian System, have exhibited tremendous spatial variability as a result of heterogeneities in the media and the presence of petroleum and natural gas deposits. Geostatistical data analysis and error propagation techniques (kriging and conditional simulation) were applied to determine the effect of potentiometric head uncertainties on radionuclide travel paths and travel times through the Wolfcamp Formation. Blok-average kriging was utilized to remove measurement error from potentiometric head data. The travel time calculations have been enhanced by the use of an inverse technique to determine the relative hydraulic conductivity along travel paths. In this way, the spatial variability of the hydraulic conductivity corresponding to streamline convergence and divergence may be included in the analysis. 22 references, 11 figures, 1 table

Impact of wind power uncertainty forecasting on the market integration of wind energy in Spain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

González-Aparicio, I.; Zucker, A.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Reduction wind power forecasting uncertainty for day ahead and intraday markets. • Statistical relationship between total load and wind power generation. • Accurately forecast expected revenues from wind producer’s perspective. - Abstract: The growing share of electricity production from variable renewable energy sources increases the stochastic nature of the power system. This has repercussions on the markets for electricity. Deviations from forecasted production schedules require balancing of a generator’s position within a day. Short term products that are traded on power and/or reserve markets have been developed for this purpose, providing opportunities to actors who can offer flexibility in the short term. The value of flexibility is typically modelled using stochastic scenario extensions of dispatch models which requires, as a first step, understanding the nature of forecast uncertainties. This study provides a new approach for determining the forecast errors of wind power generation in the time period between the closure of the day ahead and the opening of the first intraday session using Spain as an example. The methodology has been developed using time series analysis for the years 2010–2013 to find the explanatory variables of the wind error variability by applying clustering techniques to reduce the range of uncertainty, and regressive techniques to forecast the probability density functions of the intra-day price. This methodology has been tested considering different system actions showing its suitability for developing intra-day bidding strategies and also for the generation of electricity generated from Renewable Energy Sources scenarios. This methodology could help a wind power producer to optimally bid into the intraday market based on more accurate scenarios, increasing their revenues and the system value of wind.

Decommissioning funding: ethics, implementation, uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-01-01

This status report on Decommissioning Funding: Ethics, Implementation, Uncertainties also draws on the experience of the NEA Working Party on Decommissioning and Dismantling (WPDD). The report offers, in a concise form, an overview of relevant considerations on decommissioning funding mechanisms with regard to ethics, implementation and uncertainties. Underlying ethical principles found in international agreements are identified, and factors influencing the accumulation and management of funds for decommissioning nuclear facilities are discussed together with the main sources of uncertainties of funding systems. (authors)

Field Synergy Principle for Energy Conservation Analysis and Application

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qun Chen

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Optimization of mass and energy transfer process is critical to improve energy efficiency. In this contribution we introduce the field synergy principle as a unified principle for analyzing and improving the performance of the transfer process. Three field synergy numbers are introduced for heat, mass, and momentum transfer, respectively, and three cases are demonstrated for validation. The results indicate that the field synergy numbers will increase when reducing the angle between the velocity vector and the temperature gradient or the species concentration gradient fields in the convective heat or mass transfer, and the overall heat or mass transfer capability is therefore enhanced. In fluid flows, it will reduce the fluid flow drag to decrease the synergy number between the velocity and the velocity gradient fields over the entire domain and to decrease the product between the fluid viscosity and the velocity gradient at the boundary simultaneously.

Nuclear energy policy analysis under uncertainties : applications of new utility theoretic approaches

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ra, Ki Yong

1992-02-01

For the purpose of analyzing the nuclear energy policy under uncertainties, new utility theoretic approaches were applied. The main discoveries of new utility theories are that, firstly, the consequences can affect the perceived probabilities, secondly, the utilities are not fixed but can change, and finally, utilities and probabilities thus should be combined dependently to determine the overall worth of risky option. These conclusions were applied to develop the modified expected utility model and to establish the probabilistic nuclear safety criterion. The modified expected utility model was developed in order to resolve the inconsistencies between the expected utility model and the actual decision behaviors. Based on information theory and Bayesian inference, the modified probabilities were obtained as the stated probabilities times substitutional factors. The model theoretically predicts that the extreme value outcomes are perceived as to be more likely to occur than medium value outcomes. This prediction is consistent with the first finding of new utility theories that the consequences can after the perceived probabilities. And further with this theoretical prediction, the decision behavior of buying lottery ticket, of paying for insurance and of nuclear catastrophic risk aversion can well be explained. Through the numerical application, it is shown that the developed model can well explain the common consequence effect, common ratio effect and reflection effect. The probabilistic nuclear safety criterion for core melt frequency was established: Firstly, the distribution of the public's safety goal (DPSG) was proposed for representing the public's group preference under risk. Secondly, a new probabilistic safety criterion (PSC) was established, in which the DPSG was used as a benchmark for evaluating the results of probabilistic safety assessment. Thirdly, a log-normal distribution was proposed as the appropriate DPSG for core melt frequency using the

''Nature is unknowable''. The idea of uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crozon, M.

2000-01-01

This paper deals with one of the great idea of the twentieth century, the uncertainty principle of Heisenberg. With a philosophical approach the author explains this principle and presents its cultural impacts on mind. (A.L.B.)

Maximum hardness and minimum polarizability principles through lattice energies of ionic compounds

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaya, Savaş; Kaya, Cemal; Islam, Nazmul

2016-01-01

The maximum hardness (MHP) and minimum polarizability (MPP) principles have been analyzed using the relationship among the lattice energies of ionic compounds with their electronegativities, chemical hardnesses and electrophilicities. Lattice energy, electronegativity, chemical hardness and electrophilicity values of ionic compounds considered in the present study have been calculated using new equations derived by some of the authors in recent years. For 4 simple reactions, the changes of the hardness (Δη), polarizability (Δα) and electrophilicity index (Δω) were calculated. It is shown that the maximum hardness principle is obeyed by all chemical reactions but minimum polarizability principles and minimum electrophilicity principle are not valid for all reactions. We also proposed simple methods to compute the percentage of ionic characters and inter nuclear distances of ionic compounds. Comparative studies with experimental sets of data reveal that the proposed methods of computation of the percentage of ionic characters and inter nuclear distances of ionic compounds are valid.

Maximum hardness and minimum polarizability principles through lattice energies of ionic compounds

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kaya, Savaş, E-mail: savaskaya@cumhuriyet.edu.tr [Department of Chemistry, Faculty of Science, Cumhuriyet University, Sivas 58140 (Turkey); Kaya, Cemal, E-mail: kaya@cumhuriyet.edu.tr [Department of Chemistry, Faculty of Science, Cumhuriyet University, Sivas 58140 (Turkey); Islam, Nazmul, E-mail: nazmul.islam786@gmail.com [Theoretical and Computational Chemistry Research Laboratory, Department of Basic Science and Humanities/Chemistry Techno Global-Balurghat, Balurghat, D. Dinajpur 733103 (India)

2016-03-15

The maximum hardness (MHP) and minimum polarizability (MPP) principles have been analyzed using the relationship among the lattice energies of ionic compounds with their electronegativities, chemical hardnesses and electrophilicities. Lattice energy, electronegativity, chemical hardness and electrophilicity values of ionic compounds considered in the present study have been calculated using new equations derived by some of the authors in recent years. For 4 simple reactions, the changes of the hardness (Δη), polarizability (Δα) and electrophilicity index (Δω) were calculated. It is shown that the maximum hardness principle is obeyed by all chemical reactions but minimum polarizability principles and minimum electrophilicity principle are not valid for all reactions. We also proposed simple methods to compute the percentage of ionic characters and inter nuclear distances of ionic compounds. Comparative studies with experimental sets of data reveal that the proposed methods of computation of the percentage of ionic characters and inter nuclear distances of ionic compounds are valid.

Nuclear Data Uncertainties in 2004: A Perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, Donald L.

2005-01-01

Interest in nuclear data uncertainties is growing robustly after having languished for several years. Renewed attention to this topic is being motivated by the practical need for assuring that nuclear systems will be safe, reliable, and cost effective, according to the individual requirements of each specific nuclear technology. Furthermore, applications are emerging in certain areas of basic nuclear science, e.g., in astrophysics, where, until recently, attention has focused mainly on understanding basic concepts and physics principles rather than on dealing with detailed quantitative information. The availability of fast computers and the concurrent development of sophisticated software enable nuclear data uncertainty information to be used more effectively than ever before. For example, data uncertainties and associated methodologies play useful roles in advanced data measurement, analysis, and evaluation procedures. Unfortunately, the current inventory of requisite uncertainty information is rather limited when measured against these evolving demands. Consequently, there is a real need to generate more comprehensive and reasonable nuclear data uncertainty information, and to make this available relatively soon in suitable form for use in the computer codes employed for nuclear analyses and the development of advanced nuclear energy systems. This conference contribution discusses several conceptual and technical issues that need to be addressed in meeting this demand during the next few years. The role of data uncertainties in several areas of nuclear science will also be mentioned briefly. Finally, the opportunities that ultimately will be afforded by the availability of more extensive and reasonable uncertainty information, and some technical challenges to master, will also be explored in this paper

Epistemic uncertainty propagation in energy flows between structural vibrating systems

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Menghui; Du, Xiaoping; Qiu, Zhiping; Wang, Chong

2016-03-01

A dimension-wise method for predicting fuzzy energy flows between structural vibrating systems coupled by joints with epistemic uncertainties is established. Based on its Legendre polynomial approximation at α=0, both the minimum and maximum point vectors of the energy flow of interest are calculated dimension by dimension within the space spanned by the interval parameters determined by fuzzy those at α=0 and the resulted interval bounds are used to assemble the concerned fuzzy energy flows. Besides the proposed method, vertex method as well as two current methods is also applied. Comparisons among results by different methods are accomplished by two numerical examples and the accuracy of all methods is simultaneously verified by Monte Carlo simulation.

Critical mid-term uncertainties in long-term decarbonisation pathways

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Usher, Will; Strachan, Neil

2012-01-01

Over the next decade, large energy investments are required in the UK to meet growing energy service demands and legally binding emission targets under a pioneering policy agenda. These are necessary despite deep mid-term (2025–2030) uncertainties over which national policy makers have little control. We investigate the effect of two critical mid-term uncertainties on optimal near-term investment decisions using a two-stage stochastic energy system model. The results show that where future fossil fuel prices are uncertain: (i) the near term hedging strategy to 2030 differs from any one deterministic fuel price scenario and is structurally dissimilar to a simple ‘average’ of the deterministic scenarios, and (ii) multiple recourse strategies from 2030 are perturbed by path dependencies caused by hedging investments. Evaluating the uncertainty under a decarbonisation agenda shows that fossil fuel price uncertainty is very expensive at around £20 billion. The addition of novel mitigation options reduces the value of fossil fuel price uncertainty to £11 billion. Uncertain biomass import availability shows a much lower value of uncertainty at £300 million. This paper reveals the complex relationship between the flexibility of the energy system and mitigating the costs of uncertainty due to the path-dependencies caused by the long-life times of both infrastructures and generation technologies. - Highlights: ► Critical mid-term uncertainties affect near-term investments in UK energy system. ► Deterministic scenarios give conflicting near-term actions. ► Stochastic scenarios give one near-term hedging strategy. ► Technologies exhibit path dependency or flexibility. ► Fossil fuel price uncertainty is very expensive, biomass availability uncertainty is not.

Real time uncertainty in fiscal planning and debt accumulation in the euro area

OpenAIRE

Paloviita, Maritta

2012-01-01

This study explores real time uncertainty in euro area fiscal policies since the late 1990s. Using real time data from the OECD Economic Outlook publications we investigate the impact of real time uncertainty on fiscal planning and debt accumulation separately for two country groups in the euro area: countries in geographical periphery (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain) and other euro area countries (Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany and the Netherlands). The results indica...

Making optimal investment decisions for energy service companies under uncertainty: A case study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Deng, Qianli; Jiang, Xianglin; Zhang, Limao; Cui, Qingbin

2015-01-01

Varied initial energy efficiency investments would result in different annual energy savings achievements. In order to balance the savings revenue and the potential capital loss through EPC (Energy Performance Contracting), a cost-effective investment decision is needed when selecting energy efficiency technologies. In this research, an approach is developed for the ESCO (Energy Service Company) to evaluate the potential energy savings profit, and thus make the optimal investment decisions. The energy savings revenue under uncertainties, which are derived from energy efficiency performance variation and energy price fluctuation, are first modeled as stochastic processes. Then, the derived energy savings profit is shared by the owner and the ESCO according to the contract specification. A simulation-based model is thus built to maximize the owner's profit, and at the same time, satisfy the ESCO's expected rate of return. In order to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed approach, the University of Maryland campus case is also presented. The proposed method could not only help the ESCO determine the optimal energy efficiency investments, but also assist the owner's decision in the bidding selection. - Highlights: • An optimization model is built for determining energy efficiency investment for ESCO. • Evolution of the energy savings revenue is modeled as a stochastic process. • Simulation is adopted to calculate investment balancing the owner and the ESCO's profit. • A campus case is presented to demonstrate applicability of the proposed approach

Comments on the extended energy principle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lehnert, B.

1993-01-01

The present analysis concerns a plasma confined in a magnetic field, which consists of one part due to the plasma current density and one part due to steady currents in fixed external conductors. Unrestricted free-boundary displacements are studied that lead to an unbalanced pressure force at the plasma boundary and to a corresponding change in potential energy. Thus the total change in energy is due to two factors: (i) the work done against the plasma volume forces, and (ii) the work done against the unbalanced pressure forces at the plasma boundary. These two contributions can be of comparable magnitude. As a consequence, the conventional extended energy principle has to be reconsidered. This reconsideration applies in particular to its final formulation, where unrestricted displacements are made to replace restricted ones in an expression for the potential energy change deduced from the work of the plasma volume force only. The final formulation therefore leads to an incomplete and incorrect result, as caused by a logical jump in the argument when making such a replacement. The conventional MHD analysis on perturbed plasmas thus has to be revised, by taking induced surface currents properly into account. This applies to all plasmas in inhomogeneous externally applied magnetic fields. (Author)

Numerical solution of continuous-time DSGE models under Poisson uncertainty

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Posch, Olaf; Trimborn, Timo

We propose a simple and powerful method for determining the transition process in continuous-time DSGE models under Poisson uncertainty numerically. The idea is to transform the system of stochastic differential equations into a system of functional differential equations of the retarded type. We...... classes of models. We illustrate the algorithm simulating both the stochastic neoclassical growth model and the Lucas model under Poisson uncertainty which is motivated by the Barro-Rietz rare disaster hypothesis. We find that, even for non-linear policy functions, the maximum (absolute) error is very...

Principle of accelerator mass spectrometry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matsuzaki, Hiroyuki

2007-01-01

The principle of accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) is described mainly on technical aspects: hardware construction of AMS, measurement of isotope ratio, sensitivity of measurement (measuring limit), measuring accuracy, and application of data. The content may be summarized as follows: rare isotope (often long-lived radioactive isotope) can be detected by various use of the ion energy obtained by the acceleration of ions, a measurable isotope ratio is one of rare isotope to abundant isotopes, and a measured value of isotope ratio is uncertainty to true one. Such a fact must be kept in mind on the use of AMS data to application research. (M.H.)

Nuclear fuel, mass balances, conversion ratio, doubling time, and uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vondy, D.R.

1976-11-01

Information on the performance aspects of nuclear power plants is presented concerning conversion ratio, criticality, primitive economic analysis, stable breeder-converter industry, doubling time, breeder industry economic benefit, defining nuclear fuel, recommendations, and uncertainty

Climate Justice: A Constitutional Approach to Unify the Lex Specialis Principles of International Climate Law

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Teresa Thorp

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Legal principles legitimise ubiquitous social values. They make certain social norms lawful and legitimate. Legal principles may act as governing vectors. They may give effect to a unified and legitimate constitutional framework insofar as a constitution unifies the fundamental principles on which a state or competent authority is governed.Concerning international climate law, however, there is a certain shortcoming. The failure to comprehend a unified constitutional framework of lex specialis principles could debilitate intra and inter-regime governance and lead to uncertainties. At one time, uncertainties incite the law-making process. At another time, they constrain it. Such a shortcoming may lead to inconsistencies in interpreting consequential climate norms. It may thwart dispute resolution and it may impede climate negotiations. To traverse this abyss, the inquiry uses instruments of legal philosophy (the philosophy of language, legal systematics (the study of legal systems, and legal hermeneutics (the legal practice of interpretation to delineate, distinguish and unify lex specialis principles that could form the foundations of a universal constitutional framework of international climate law. In doing so, it shows that climate justice is a function of the quality of the legal system.

Spillovers between energy and FX markets: The importance of asymmetry, uncertainty and business cycle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khalifa, Ahmed; Caporin, Massimiliano; Hammoudeh, Shawkat

2015-01-01

This study constructs a theoretical volatility transmission model for petroleum and FX markets, taking into account major stylized facts and uncertainty measures and the interactions between them under stages of the business cycle. It examines the impacts of those different specifications and economic factors on the spillovers between those considered markets. The results show that the impacts of the “own” shocks (petroleum on petroleum and currency on currency) are statistically significant and positive in almost all cases as expected for the models of natural gas and WTI oil, irrespectively of the currency considered. The asymmetry effect is stronger in the oil than in the natural gas markets. There is stronger and significant evidence that uncertainty affects volatility much more the mean. For the WTI oil, almost all policy and other uncertainty measures lead to an increase in the conditional variance. For currencies, coefficients are commonly significant independent of the presence of petroleum commodities in the bivariate model. The striking result for natural gas is the limited statistical relevance of the economic policy and other uncertainty measures due to the long contracts that characterize this market. Finally, common macroeconomic forces associated with the business cycle can drive these petroleum and currency markets and may cause jumps and co-jumps in the volatility of these markets. The conclusion provides policy implications of the paper’s results. - Highlights: • Examine the impacts of uncertainty measures on energy and currency interaction. • Examine the impacts of asymmetry on energy and currency interactions. • There is stronger asymmetry in oil compared to natural gas. • Uncertainty measures have an impact on volatility dynamics for oil and currencies. • Uncertainty measures do not have an impact on natural gas.

GARUSO - Version 1.0. Uncertainty model for multipath ultrasonic transit time gas flow meters

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lunde, Per; Froeysa, Kjell-Eivind; Vestrheim, Magne

1997-09-01

This report describes an uncertainty model for ultrasonic transit time gas flow meters configured with parallel chords, and a PC program, GARUSO Version 1.0, implemented for calculation of the meter`s relative expanded uncertainty. The program, which is based on the theoretical uncertainty model, is used to carry out a simplified and limited uncertainty analysis for a 12`` 4-path meter, where examples of input and output uncertainties are given. The model predicts a relative expanded uncertainty for the meter at a level which further justifies today`s increasing tendency to use this type of instruments for fiscal metering of natural gas. 52 refs., 15 figs., 11 tabs.

Uncertainty in Odyssee indicators and energy savings. Development of a methodology and first results

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boonekamp, P.G.M.; Gerdes, J. [ECN Policy Studies, Petten (Netherlands); Faberi, S. [Institute of Studies for the Integration of Systems ISIS, Rome (Italy)

2013-12-15

The ODYSSEE database on energy efficiency indicators (www.odyssee-indicators.org) has been set up to enable the monitoring and evaluation of realised energy efficiency improvements and related energy savings. The database covers the 27 EU countries as well as Norway and Croatia. Energy indicators that relate energy consumption to a physical output (ton of steel), a performance (person-km driven per car) or the number of energy using devices (refrigerators) can show the increase in energy efficiency realised, and the amount of energy saved. By aggregating indicators, Odyssee calculates energy efficiency indices by sector and for the whole economy (so-called ODEX), in order to evaluate overall energy efficiency progress. This work contributes to the growing need for quantitative monitoring and evaluation of the impacts of energy policies and measures, both at the EU and national level, e.g. due to the Energy Service Directive. Because of the central role of Odyssee indicators in policy evaluations it becomes more important to know how reliable the Odyssee figures are, or in other words, what is the uncertainty margin for the indicator values and the related savings. This report presents a first analysis of uncertainty margins in the indicators and savings figures. The work builds on earlier work in the preceding Odyssee project with regard to the quality of input data used in Odyssee.

Energy saving in WWTP: Daily benchmarking under uncertainty and data availability limitations.

Science.gov (United States)

Torregrossa, D; Schutz, G; Cornelissen, A; Hernández-Sancho, F; Hansen, J

2016-07-01

Efficient management of Waste Water Treatment Plants (WWTPs) can produce significant environmental and economic benefits. Energy benchmarking can be used to compare WWTPs, identify targets and use these to improve their performance. Different authors have performed benchmark analysis on monthly or yearly basis but their approaches suffer from a time lag between an event, its detection, interpretation and potential actions. The availability of on-line measurement data on many WWTPs should theoretically enable the decrease of the management response time by daily benchmarking. Unfortunately this approach is often impossible because of limited data availability. This paper proposes a methodology to perform a daily benchmark analysis under database limitations. The methodology has been applied to the Energy Online System (EOS) developed in the framework of the project "INNERS" (INNovative Energy Recovery Strategies in the urban water cycle). EOS calculates a set of Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) for the evaluation of energy and process performances. In EOS, the energy KPIs take in consideration the pollutant load in order to enable the comparison between different plants. For example, EOS does not analyse the energy consumption but the energy consumption on pollutant load. This approach enables the comparison of performances for plants with different loads or for a single plant under different load conditions. The energy consumption is measured by on-line sensors, while the pollutant load is measured in the laboratory approximately every 14 days. Consequently, the unavailability of the water quality parameters is the limiting factor in calculating energy KPIs. In this paper, in order to overcome this limitation, the authors have developed a methodology to estimate the required parameters and manage the uncertainty in the estimation. By coupling the parameter estimation with an interval based benchmark approach, the authors propose an effective, fast and reproducible

Absolute Hydration Free Energy of Proton from First Principles Electronic Structure Calculations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhan, Chang-Guo; Dixon, David A.

2001-01-01

The absolute hydration free energy of the proton, DGhyd298(H+), is one of the fundamental quantities for the thermodynamics of aqueous systems. Its exact value remains unknown despite extensive experimental and computational efforts. We report a first-principles determination of DGhyd298(H+) by using the latest developments in electronic structure theory and massively parallel computers. DGhyd298(H+) is accurately predicted to be -262.4 kcal/mol based on high-level, first-principles solvation-included electronic structure calculations. The absolute hydration free energies of other cations can be obtained by using appropriate available thermodynamic data in combination with this value. The high accuracy of the predicted absolute hydration free energy of proton is confirmed by applying the same protocol to predict DGhyd298(Li+)

Dealing with rainfall forecast uncertainties in real-time flood control along the Demer river

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vermuyten Evert

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Real-time Model Predictive Control (MPC of hydraulic structures strongly reduces flood consequences under ideal circumstances. The performance of such flood control may, however, be significantly affected by uncertainties. This research quantifies the influence of rainfall forecast uncertainties and related uncertainties in the catchment rainfall-runoff discharges on the control performance for the Herk river case study in Belgium. To limit the model computational times, a fast conceptual model is applied. It is calibrated to a full hydrodynamic river model. A Reduced Genetic Algorithm is used as optimization method. Next to the analysis of the impact of the rainfall forecast uncertainties on the control performance, a Multiple Model Predictive Control (MMPC approach is tested to reduce this impact. Results show that the deterministic MPC-RGA outperforms the MMPC and that it is inherently robust against rainfall forecast uncertainties due to its receding horizon strategy.

Coping with the long term : an empirical analysis of time perspectives, time orientations, and temporal uncertainty in forestry

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hoogstra, M.A.

2008-01-01

Uncertainty is an unavoidable fact of every decision. In forestry, the problem of uncertainty is, however, exacerbated by the long time horizons involved. Rotation periods for oak and beech, for example, are up to 150-200 years. And even spruce, which is considered to be a fast-growing tree species,

An optimization methodology for identifying robust process integration investments under uncertainty

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Svensson, Elin; Berntsson, Thore [Department of Energy and Environment, Division of Heat and Power Technology, Chalmers University of Technology, SE-412 96 Goeteborg (Sweden); Stroemberg, Ann-Brith [Fraunhofer-Chalmers Research Centre for Industrial Mathematics, Chalmers Science Park, SE-412 88 Gothenburg (Sweden); Patriksson, Michael [Department of Mathematical Sciences, Chalmers University of Technology and Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Gothenburg, SE-412 96 Goeteborg (Sweden)

2009-02-15

Uncertainties in future energy prices and policies strongly affect decisions on investments in process integration measures in industry. In this paper, we present a five-step methodology for the identification of robust investment alternatives incorporating explicitly such uncertainties in the optimization model. Methods for optimization under uncertainty (or, stochastic programming) are thus combined with a deep understanding of process integration and process technology in order to achieve a framework for decision-making concerning the investment planning of process integration measures under uncertainty. The proposed methodology enables the optimization of investments in energy efficiency with respect to their net present value or an environmental objective. In particular, as a result of the optimization approach, complex investment alternatives, allowing for combinations of energy efficiency measures, can be analyzed. Uncertainties as well as time-dependent parameters, such as energy prices and policies, are modelled using a scenario-based approach, enabling the identification of robust investment solutions. The methodology is primarily an aid for decision-makers in industry, but it will also provide insight for policy-makers into how uncertainties regarding future price levels and policy instruments affect the decisions on investments in energy efficiency measures. (author)

An optimization methodology for identifying robust process integration investments under uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Svensson, Elin; Berntsson, Thore; Stroemberg, Ann-Brith; Patriksson, Michael

2009-01-01

Uncertainties in future energy prices and policies strongly affect decisions on investments in process integration measures in industry. In this paper, we present a five-step methodology for the identification of robust investment alternatives incorporating explicitly such uncertainties in the optimization model. Methods for optimization under uncertainty (or, stochastic programming) are thus combined with a deep understanding of process integration and process technology in order to achieve a framework for decision-making concerning the investment planning of process integration measures under uncertainty. The proposed methodology enables the optimization of investments in energy efficiency with respect to their net present value or an environmental objective. In particular, as a result of the optimization approach, complex investment alternatives, allowing for combinations of energy efficiency measures, can be analyzed. Uncertainties as well as time-dependent parameters, such as energy prices and policies, are modelled using a scenario-based approach, enabling the identification of robust investment solutions. The methodology is primarily an aid for decision-makers in industry, but it will also provide insight for policy-makers into how uncertainties regarding future price levels and policy instruments affect the decisions on investments in energy efficiency measures. (author)

Towards a quantitative, measurement-based estimate of the uncertainty in photon mass attenuation coefficients at radiation therapy energies

Science.gov (United States)

Ali, E. S. M.; Spencer, B.; McEwen, M. R.; Rogers, D. W. O.

2015-02-01

In this study, a quantitative estimate is derived for the uncertainty in the XCOM photon mass attenuation coefficients in the energy range of interest to external beam radiation therapy—i.e. 100 keV (orthovoltage) to 25 MeV—using direct comparisons of experimental data against Monte Carlo models and theoretical XCOM data. Two independent datasets are used. The first dataset is from our recent transmission measurements and the corresponding EGSnrc calculations (Ali et al 2012 Med. Phys. 39 5990-6003) for 10-30 MV photon beams from the research linac at the National Research Council Canada. The attenuators are graphite and lead, with a total of 140 data points and an experimental uncertainty of ˜0.5% (k = 1). An optimum energy-independent cross section scaling factor that minimizes the discrepancies between measurements and calculations is used to deduce cross section uncertainty. The second dataset is from the aggregate of cross section measurements in the literature for graphite and lead (49 experiments, 288 data points). The dataset is compared to the sum of the XCOM data plus the IAEA photonuclear data. Again, an optimum energy-independent cross section scaling factor is used to deduce the cross section uncertainty. Using the average result from the two datasets, the energy-independent cross section uncertainty estimate is 0.5% (68% confidence) and 0.7% (95% confidence). The potential for energy-dependent errors is discussed. Photon cross section uncertainty is shown to be smaller than the current qualitative ‘envelope of uncertainty’ of the order of 1-2%, as given by Hubbell (1999 Phys. Med. Biol 44 R1-22).

All-optical time-resolved measurement of laser energy modulation in a relativistic electron beam

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Xiang

2011-11-01

Full Text Available We propose and demonstrate an all-optical method to measure laser energy modulation in a relativistic electron beam. In this scheme the time-dependent energy modulation generated from the electron-laser interaction in an undulator is converted into time-dependent density modulation with a chicane, which is measured to infer the laser energy modulation. The method, in principle, is capable of simultaneously providing information on femtosecond time scale and 10^{-5} energy scale not accessible with conventional methods. We anticipate that this method may have wide applications in many laser-based advanced beam manipulation techniques.

Measurement uncertainty and probability

CERN Document Server

Willink, Robin

2013-01-01

A measurement result is incomplete without a statement of its 'uncertainty' or 'margin of error'. But what does this statement actually tell us? By examining the practical meaning of probability, this book discusses what is meant by a '95 percent interval of measurement uncertainty', and how such an interval can be calculated. The book argues that the concept of an unknown 'target value' is essential if probability is to be used as a tool for evaluating measurement uncertainty. It uses statistical concepts, such as a conditional confidence interval, to present 'extended' classical methods for evaluating measurement uncertainty. The use of the Monte Carlo principle for the simulation of experiments is described. Useful for researchers and graduate students, the book also discusses other philosophies relating to the evaluation of measurement uncertainty. It employs clear notation and language to avoid the confusion that exists in this controversial field of science.

Adapting for uncertainty : a scenario analysis of U.S. technology energy futures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laitner, J.A.; Hanson, D.A.; Mintzner, I.; Leonard, J.A.

2006-01-01

The pattern of future evolution for United States (US) energy markets is highly uncertain at this time. This article provided details of a study using a scenario analysis technique to investigate key energy issues affecting decision-making processes in the United States. Four scenarios were used to examine the driving forces and critical uncertainties that may shape United States energy markets and the economy for the next 50 years: (1) a reference scenario benchmarked to the 2002 annual energy outlook forecast, (2) abundant and inexpensive supplies of oil and gas, (3) a chaotic future beset with international conflict, faltering new technologies, environmental policy difficulties and slowed economic growth, and (4) a technology-driven market in which a variety of forces converge to reshape the energy sector. Each of the scenarios was quantified using a computable general equilibrium model known as the All Modular Industry Growth Assessment (AMIGA) model. Results suggested that the range of different outcomes for the US is broad. However, energy use is expected to increase in all 4 scenarios. It was observed that the introduction of policies to encourage capital stock turnover and accelerate the commercialization of high efficiency, low-emissions technologies may reduce future primary energy demand. The analysis also showed that lower energy prices may lead to higher economic growth. Policies introduced to improve energy efficiency and accelerate the introduction of new technologies did not appreciably reduce the prospects for economic growth. Results also suggested that lower fossil fuel prices discourage investments in energy efficiency or new technologies and may mask the task of responding to future surprises. It was concluded that an investment path that emphasizes both energy efficiency improvements and advanced energy supply technologies will provide economic growth conditions similar to the implementation of lower energy prices. 11 refs., 1 tab., 2 figs

Jet energy scale uncertainty correlations between ATLAS and CMS at 8 TeV

CERN Document Server

CMS and ATLAS Collaborations

2015-01-01

An evaluation of the correlations between ATLAS and CMS jet energy scale uncertainties is presented for $\\sqrt{s}=8$ TeV $pp$ collisions recorded in 2012. Uncertainties within each experiment are grouped based on the general type of systematic effect they are intended to cover and the means by which they are derived. Inter-experimental correlation value ranges are established for each corresponding group of uncertainty components. This correlation range is intended to cover the possible correlation values when performing combinations between the two experiments, where the most conservative value obtained from scanning over the correlation range should be used for the final combined measurement. The procedure described here is primarily aimed at single-observable analyses, and has limitations when applied to multi-observable measurements.

Prediction uncertainty and data worth assessment for groundwater transport times in an agricultural catchment

Science.gov (United States)

Zell, Wesley O.; Culver, Teresa B.; Sanford, Ward E.

2018-06-01

Uncertainties about the age of base-flow discharge can have serious implications for the management of degraded environmental systems where subsurface pathways, and the ongoing release of pollutants that accumulated in the subsurface during past decades, dominate the water quality signal. Numerical groundwater models may be used to estimate groundwater return times and base-flow ages and thus predict the time required for stakeholders to see the results of improved agricultural management practices. However, the uncertainty inherent in the relationship between (i) the observations of atmospherically-derived tracers that are required to calibrate such models and (ii) the predictions of system age that the observations inform have not been investigated. For example, few if any studies have assessed the uncertainty of numerically-simulated system ages or evaluated the uncertainty reductions that may result from the expense of collecting additional subsurface tracer data. In this study we combine numerical flow and transport modeling of atmospherically-derived tracers with prediction uncertainty methods to accomplish four objectives. First, we show the relative importance of head, discharge, and tracer information for characterizing response times in a uniquely data rich catchment that includes 266 age-tracer measurements (SF6, CFCs, and 3H) in addition to long term monitoring of water levels and stream discharge. Second, we calculate uncertainty intervals for model-simulated base-flow ages using both linear and non-linear methods, and find that the prediction sensitivity vector used by linear first-order second-moment methods results in much larger uncertainties than non-linear Monte Carlo methods operating on the same parameter uncertainty. Third, by combining prediction uncertainty analysis with multiple models of the system, we show that data-worth calculations and monitoring network design are sensitive to variations in the amount of water leaving the system via

Economic analysis of energy system considering the uncertainties of crude oil, natural gas and nuclear utilization employing stochastic dynamic programming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hasegawa, Keita; Komiyama, Ryoichi; Fujii, Yasumasa

2016-01-01

The paper presents an economic rationality analysis of power generation mix by stochastic dynamic programming considering fuel price uncertainties and supply disruption risks such as import disruption and nuclear power plant shutdown risk. The situation revolving around Japan's energy security adopted the past statistics, it cannot be applied to a quantitative analysis of future uncertainties. Further objective and quantitative evaluation methods are required in order to analyze Japan's energy system and make it more resilient in sight of long time scale. In this paper, the authors firstly develop the cost minimization model considering oil and natural gas price respectively by stochastic dynamic programming. Then, the authors show several premises of model and an example of result with related to crude oil stockpile, liquefied natural gas stockpile and nuclear power plant capacity. (author)

Energy efficiency improvements in ammonia production--perspectives and uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rafiqul, Islam; Weber, Christoph; Lehmann, Bianca; Voss, Alfred

2005-01-01

The paper discusses the energy consumption and energy saving potential for a major energy-intensive product in the chemical industry-ammonia, based on technologies currently in use and possible process improvements. The paper consists of four parts. In the first part, mainly references to various ammonia production technologies are given. Energy consumption, emissions and saving potentials are discussed in the second part. Thereby, the situation in Europe, the US and India is highlighted and various data sources are compared. In the third part of the paper, a novel approach for modeling energy efficiency improvements is described that accounts for uncertainties and unobserved heterogeneity in the production processes. Besides new investments, revamping investments are also included in the modeling and the development of the production stock is accounted for. Finally, in the fourth part, this approach is applied to the modeling of energy efficiency improvements and CO 2 emission reductions in ammonia production. Thereby, considerable improvements in specific energy use and CO 2 emissions are found in the reference scenario, yet under the assumption of high oil and gas prices, a partial switch to coal based technologies is expected which lowers notably the CO 2 efficiency. Introduction of a CO 2 penalty under a certificate trading or other regime is on contrary found to foster energy efficiency and the use of low carbon technologies

Quantifying the uncertainty of wave energy conversion device cost for policy appraisal: An Irish case study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Farrell, Niall; Donoghue, Cathal O’; Morrissey, Karyn

2015-01-01

Wave Energy Conversion (WEC) devices are at a pre-commercial stage of development with feasibility studies sensitive to uncertainties surrounding assumed input costs. This may affect decision making. This paper analyses the impact these uncertainties may have on investor, developer and policymaker decisions using an Irish case study. Calibrated to data present in the literature, a probabilistic methodology is shown to be an effective means to carry this out. Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) metrics are used to quantify the certainty of achieving a given cost or return on investment. We analyse the certainty of financial return provided by the proposed Irish Feed-in Tariff (FiT) policy. The influence of cost reduction through bulk discount is also discussed, with cost reduction targets for developers identified. Uncertainty is found to have a greater impact on the profitability of smaller installations and those subject to lower rates of cost reduction. This paper emphasises that a premium is required to account for cost uncertainty when setting FiT rates. By quantifying uncertainty, a means to specify an efficient premium is presented. - Highlights: • Probabilistic model quantifies uncertainty for wave energy feasibility analyses. • Methodology presented and applied to an Irish case study. • A feed-in tariff premium of 3–4 c/kWh required to account for cost uncertainty. • Sensitivity of uncertainty and cost to rates of technological change analysed. • Use of probabilistic model for investors and developers also demonstrated

The Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen paradox for observables energy-time

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klyshko, D.N.

1989-01-01

A new variant of the Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen-type experiment is discussed, in which the complementarity principle for the energy and birth-time is demonstrated for correlated photon pairs, born by a metastable atomic state decay or by a parametric scattering. It is shown that one cannot a priori ascribe a definite time structure to such photons. A simple interpretation of the effect is possible by means of an advanced wave emitted by one of the detectors at the moment of the photon registration

Photovoltaic Calibrations at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and Uncertainty Analysis Following the ISO 17025 Guidelines

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Emery, Keith [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2016-09-01

The measurement of photovoltaic (PV) performance with respect to reference conditions requires measuring current versus voltage for a given tabular reference spectrum, junction temperature, and total irradiance. This report presents the procedures implemented by the PV Cell and Module Performance Characterization Group at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to achieve the lowest practical uncertainty. A rigorous uncertainty analysis of these procedures is presented, which follows the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement. This uncertainty analysis is required for the team’s laboratory accreditation under ISO standard 17025, “General Requirements for the Competence of Testing and Calibration Laboratories.” The report also discusses additional areas where the uncertainty can be reduced.

Learning Bounds of ERM Principle for Sequences of Time-Dependent Samples

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mingchen Yao

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Many generalization results in learning theory are established under the assumption that samples are independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.. However, numerous learning tasks in practical applications involve the time-dependent data. In this paper, we propose a theoretical framework to analyze the generalization performance of the empirical risk minimization (ERM principle for sequences of time-dependent samples (TDS. In particular, we first present the generalization bound of ERM principle for TDS. By introducing some auxiliary quantities, we also give a further analysis of the generalization properties and the asymptotical behaviors of ERM principle for TDS.

Robust stabilisation of time-varying delay systems with probabilistic uncertainties

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Ning; Xiong, Junlin; Lam, James

2016-09-01

For robust stabilisation of time-varying delay systems, only sufficient conditions are available to date. A natural question is as follows: if the existing sufficient conditions are not satisfied, and hence no controllers can be found, what can one do to improve the stability performance of time-varying delay systems? This question is addressed in this paper when there is a probabilistic structure on the parameter uncertainty set. A randomised algorithm is proposed to design a state-feedback controller, which stabilises the system over the uncertainty domain in a probabilistic sense. The capability of the designed controller is quantified by the probability of stability of the resulting closed-loop system. The accuracy of the solution obtained from the randomised algorithm is also analysed. Finally, numerical examples are used to illustrate the effectiveness and advantages of the developed controller design approach.

Quantum corrections to the thermodynamics of Schwarzschild-Tangherlini black hole and the generalized uncertainty principle

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Feng, Z.W.; Zu, X.T. [University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, School of Physical Electronics, Chengdu (China); Li, H.L. [University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, School of Physical Electronics, Chengdu (China); Shenyang Normal University, College of Physics Science and Technology, Shenyang (China); Yang, S.Z. [China West Normal University, Physics and Space Science College, Nanchong (China)

2016-04-15

We investigate the thermodynamics of Schwarzschild-Tangherlini black hole in the context of the generalized uncertainty principle (GUP). The corrections to the Hawking temperature, entropy and the heat capacity are obtained via the modified Hamilton-Jacobi equation. These modifications show that the GUP changes the evolution of the Schwarzschild-Tangherlini black hole. Specially, the GUP effect becomes susceptible when the radius or mass of the black hole approaches the order of Planck scale, it stops radiating and leads to a black hole remnant. Meanwhile, the Planck scale remnant can be confirmed through the analysis of the heat capacity. Those phenomena imply that the GUP may give a way to solve the information paradox. Besides, we also investigate the possibilities to observe the black hole at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), and the results demonstrate that the black hole cannot be produced in the recent LHC. (orig.)

A framework for assessing the uncertainty in wave energy delivery to targeted subsurface formations

Science.gov (United States)

Karve, Pranav M.; Kallivokas, Loukas F.; Manuel, Lance

2016-02-01

Stress wave stimulation of geological formations has potential applications in petroleum engineering, hydro-geology, and environmental engineering. The stimulation can be applied using wave sources whose spatio-temporal characteristics are designed to focus the emitted wave energy into the target region. Typically, the design process involves numerical simulations of the underlying wave physics, and assumes a perfect knowledge of the material properties and the overall geometry of the geostructure. In practice, however, precise knowledge of the properties of the geological formations is elusive, and quantification of the reliability of a deterministic approach is crucial for evaluating the technical and economical feasibility of the design. In this article, we discuss a methodology that could be used to quantify the uncertainty in the wave energy delivery. We formulate the wave propagation problem for a two-dimensional, layered, isotropic, elastic solid truncated using hybrid perfectly-matched-layers (PMLs), and containing a target elastic or poroelastic inclusion. We define a wave motion metric to quantify the amount of the delivered wave energy. We, then, treat the material properties of the layers as random variables, and perform a first-order uncertainty analysis of the formation to compute the probabilities of failure to achieve threshold values of the motion metric. We illustrate the uncertainty quantification procedure using synthetic data.

Kalman filter approach for uncertainty quantification in time-resolved laser-induced incandescence.

Science.gov (United States)

Hadwin, Paul J; Sipkens, Timothy A; Thomson, Kevin A; Liu, Fengshan; Daun, Kyle J

2018-03-01

Time-resolved laser-induced incandescence (TiRe-LII) data can be used to infer spatially and temporally resolved volume fractions and primary particle size distributions of soot-laden aerosols, but these estimates are corrupted by measurement noise as well as uncertainties in the spectroscopic and heat transfer submodels used to interpret the data. Estimates of the temperature, concentration, and size distribution of soot primary particles within a sample aerosol are typically made by nonlinear regression of modeled spectral incandescence decay, or effective temperature decay, to experimental data. In this work, we employ nonstationary Bayesian estimation techniques to infer aerosol properties from simulated and experimental LII signals, specifically the extended Kalman filter and Schmidt-Kalman filter. These techniques exploit the time-varying nature of both the measurements and the models, and they reveal how uncertainty in the estimates computed from TiRe-LII data evolves over time. Both techniques perform better when compared with standard deterministic estimates; however, we demonstrate that the Schmidt-Kalman filter produces more realistic uncertainty estimates.

Thermodynamic modeling, energy equipartition, and nonconservation of entropy for discrete-time dynamical systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chellaboina Vijaysekhar

2005-01-01

Full Text Available We develop thermodynamic models for discrete-time large-scale dynamical systems. Specifically, using compartmental dynamical system theory, we develop energy flow models possessing energy conservation, energy equipartition, temperature equipartition, and entropy nonconservation principles for discrete-time, large-scale dynamical systems. Furthermore, we introduce a new and dual notion to entropy; namely, ectropy, as a measure of the tendency of a dynamical system to do useful work and grow more organized, and show that conservation of energy in an isolated thermodynamic system necessarily leads to nonconservation of ectropy and entropy. In addition, using the system ectropy as a Lyapunov function candidate, we show that our discrete-time, large-scale thermodynamic energy flow model has convergent trajectories to Lyapunov stable equilibria determined by the system initial subsystem energies.

Fundamental principles of quantum theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bugajski, S.

1980-01-01

After introducing general versions of three fundamental quantum postulates - the superposition principle, the uncertainty principle and the complementarity principle - the question of whether the three principles are sufficiently strong to restrict the general Mackey description of quantum systems to the standard Hilbert-space quantum theory is discussed. An example which shows that the answer must be negative is constructed. An abstract version of the projection postulate is introduced and it is demonstrated that it could serve as the missing physical link between the general Mackey description and the standard quantum theory. (author)

The quantum moment how Planck, Bohr, Einstein, and Eisenberg taught us to love uncertainty

CERN Document Server

Crease, Robert P

2014-01-01

The discovery of the quantum—the idea, born in the early 1900s in a remote corner of physics, that energy comes in finite packets instead of infinitely divisible quantities—planted a rich set of metaphors in the popular imagination. Quantum imagery and language now bombard us like an endless stream of photons. Phrases such as multiverses, quantum leaps, alternate universes, the uncertainty principle, and Schrödinger's cat get reinvented continually in cartoons and movies, coffee mugs and T-shirts, and fiction and philosophy, reinterpreted by each new generation of artists and writers. Is a "quantum leap" big or small? How uncertain is the uncertainty principle? Is this barrage of quantum vocabulary pretentious and wacky, or a fundamental shift in the way we think? All the above, say Robert P. Crease and Alfred Scharff Goldhaber in this pathbreaking book. The authors—one a philosopher, the other a physicist—draw on their training and six years of co-teaching to dramatize the quantum’s rocky path f...

The general use of the time-temperature-pressure superposition principle

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Henrik Koblitz

This note is a supplement to Dynamic of Polymeric Liquids (DPL) section 3.6(a). DPL do only concern material functions and only the effect of the temperature on these. This is a short introduction to the general use of the time-temperature-pressure superposition principle.......This note is a supplement to Dynamic of Polymeric Liquids (DPL) section 3.6(a). DPL do only concern material functions and only the effect of the temperature on these. This is a short introduction to the general use of the time-temperature-pressure superposition principle....

SU-G-BRA-09: Estimation of Motion Tracking Uncertainty for Real-Time Adaptive Imaging

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yan, H [Capital Medical University, Beijing, Beijing (China); Chen, Z [Yale New Haven Hospital, New Haven, CT (United States); Nath, R; Liu, W [Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT (United States)

2016-06-15

Purpose: kV fluoroscopic imaging combined with MV treatment beam imaging has been investigated for intrafractional motion monitoring and correction. It is, however, subject to additional kV imaging dose to normal tissue. To balance tracking accuracy and imaging dose, we previously proposed an adaptive imaging strategy to dynamically decide future imaging type and moments based on motion tracking uncertainty. kV imaging may be used continuously for maximal accuracy or only when the position uncertainty (probability of out of threshold) is high if a preset imaging dose limit is considered. In this work, we propose more accurate methods to estimate tracking uncertainty through analyzing acquired data in real-time. Methods: We simulated motion tracking process based on a previously developed imaging framework (MV + initial seconds of kV imaging) using real-time breathing data from 42 patients. Motion tracking errors for each time point were collected together with the time point’s corresponding features, such as tumor motion speed and 2D tracking error of previous time points, etc. We tested three methods for error uncertainty estimation based on the features: conditional probability distribution, logistic regression modeling, and support vector machine (SVM) classification to detect errors exceeding a threshold. Results: For conditional probability distribution, polynomial regressions on three features (previous tracking error, prediction quality, and cosine of the angle between the trajectory and the treatment beam) showed strong correlation with the variation (uncertainty) of the mean 3D tracking error and its standard deviation: R-square = 0.94 and 0.90, respectively. The logistic regression and SVM classification successfully identified about 95% of tracking errors exceeding 2.5mm threshold. Conclusion: The proposed methods can reliably estimate the motion tracking uncertainty in real-time, which can be used to guide adaptive additional imaging to confirm the

SU-G-BRA-09: Estimation of Motion Tracking Uncertainty for Real-Time Adaptive Imaging

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yan, H; Chen, Z; Nath, R; Liu, W

2016-01-01

Purpose: kV fluoroscopic imaging combined with MV treatment beam imaging has been investigated for intrafractional motion monitoring and correction. It is, however, subject to additional kV imaging dose to normal tissue. To balance tracking accuracy and imaging dose, we previously proposed an adaptive imaging strategy to dynamically decide future imaging type and moments based on motion tracking uncertainty. kV imaging may be used continuously for maximal accuracy or only when the position uncertainty (probability of out of threshold) is high if a preset imaging dose limit is considered. In this work, we propose more accurate methods to estimate tracking uncertainty through analyzing acquired data in real-time. Methods: We simulated motion tracking process based on a previously developed imaging framework (MV + initial seconds of kV imaging) using real-time breathing data from 42 patients. Motion tracking errors for each time point were collected together with the time point’s corresponding features, such as tumor motion speed and 2D tracking error of previous time points, etc. We tested three methods for error uncertainty estimation based on the features: conditional probability distribution, logistic regression modeling, and support vector machine (SVM) classification to detect errors exceeding a threshold. Results: For conditional probability distribution, polynomial regressions on three features (previous tracking error, prediction quality, and cosine of the angle between the trajectory and the treatment beam) showed strong correlation with the variation (uncertainty) of the mean 3D tracking error and its standard deviation: R-square = 0.94 and 0.90, respectively. The logistic regression and SVM classification successfully identified about 95% of tracking errors exceeding 2.5mm threshold. Conclusion: The proposed methods can reliably estimate the motion tracking uncertainty in real-time, which can be used to guide adaptive additional imaging to confirm the

First-principles X-ray absorption dose calculation for time-dependent mass and optical density.

Science.gov (United States)

Berejnov, Viatcheslav; Rubinstein, Boris; Melo, Lis G A; Hitchcock, Adam P

2018-05-01

A dose integral of time-dependent X-ray absorption under conditions of variable photon energy and changing sample mass is derived from first principles starting with the Beer-Lambert (BL) absorption model. For a given photon energy the BL dose integral D(e, t) reduces to the product of an effective time integral T(t) and a dose rate R(e). Two approximations of the time-dependent optical density, i.e. exponential A(t) = c + aexp(-bt) for first-order kinetics and hyperbolic A(t) = c + a/(b + t) for second-order kinetics, were considered for BL dose evaluation. For both models three methods of evaluating the effective time integral are considered: analytical integration, approximation by a function, and calculation of the asymptotic behaviour at large times. Data for poly(methyl methacrylate) and perfluorosulfonic acid polymers measured by scanning transmission soft X-ray microscopy were used to test the BL dose calculation. It was found that a previous method to calculate time-dependent dose underestimates the dose in mass loss situations, depending on the applied exposure time. All these methods here show that the BL dose is proportional to the exposure time D(e, t) ≃ K(e)t.

A framework for assessing the uncertainty in wave energy delivery to targeted subsurface formations

KAUST Repository

Karve, Pranav M.

2016-02-01

© 2015 Elsevier B.V. Stress wave stimulation of geological formations has potential applications in petroleum engineering, hydro-geology, and environmental engineering. The stimulation can be applied using wave sources whose spatio-temporal characteristics are designed to focus the emitted wave energy into the target region. Typically, the design process involves numerical simulations of the underlying wave physics, and assumes a perfect knowledge of the material properties and the overall geometry of the geostructure. In practice, however, precise knowledge of the properties of the geological formations is elusive, and quantification of the reliability of a deterministic approach is crucial for evaluating the technical and economical feasibility of the design. In this article, we discuss a methodology that could be used to quantify the uncertainty in the wave energy delivery. We formulate the wave propagation problem for a two-dimensional, layered, isotropic, elastic solid truncated using hybrid perfectly-matched-layers (PMLs), and containing a target elastic or poroelastic inclusion. We define a wave motion metric to quantify the amount of the delivered wave energy. We, then, treat the material properties of the layers as random variables, and perform a first-order uncertainty analysis of the formation to compute the probabilities of failure to achieve threshold values of the motion metric. We illustrate the uncertainty quantification procedure using synthetic data.

Wind Energy Management System Integration Project Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

2010-09-01

The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation) and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. In order to improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively, by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators’ forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique

Investment, regulation, and uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Smyth, Stuart J; McDonald, Jillian; Falck-Zepeda, Jose

2014-01-01

As with any technological innovation, time refines the technology, improving upon the original version of the innovative product. The initial GM crops had single traits for either herbicide tolerance or insect resistance. Current varieties have both of these traits stacked together and in many cases other abiotic and biotic traits have also been stacked. This innovation requires investment. While this is relatively straight forward, certain conditions need to exist such that investments can be facilitated. The principle requirement for investment is that regulatory frameworks render consistent and timely decisions. If the certainty of regulatory outcomes weakens, the potential for changes in investment patterns increases.   This article provides a summary background to the leading plant breeding technologies that are either currently being used to develop new crop varieties or are in the pipeline to be applied to plant breeding within the next few years. Challenges for existing regulatory systems are highlighted. Utilizing an option value approach from investment literature, an assessment of uncertainty regarding the regulatory approval for these varying techniques is undertaken. This research highlights which technology development options have the greatest degree of uncertainty and hence, which ones might be expected to see an investment decline. PMID:24499745

Uncertainties propagation and global sensitivity analysis of the frequency response function of piezoelectric energy harvesters

Science.gov (United States)

Ruiz, Rafael O.; Meruane, Viviana

2017-06-01

The goal of this work is to describe a framework to propagate uncertainties in piezoelectric energy harvesters (PEHs). These uncertainties are related to the incomplete knowledge of the model parameters. The framework presented could be employed to conduct prior robust stochastic predictions. The prior analysis assumes a known probability density function for the uncertain variables and propagates the uncertainties to the output voltage. The framework is particularized to evaluate the behavior of the frequency response functions (FRFs) in PEHs, while its implementation is illustrated by the use of different unimorph and bimorph PEHs subjected to different scenarios: free of uncertainties, common uncertainties, and uncertainties as a product of imperfect clamping. The common variability associated with the PEH parameters are tabulated and reported. A global sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify the Sobol indices. Results indicate that the elastic modulus, density, and thickness of the piezoelectric layer are the most relevant parameters of the output variability. The importance of including the model parameter uncertainties in the estimation of the FRFs is revealed. In this sense, the present framework constitutes a powerful tool in the robust design and prediction of PEH performance.

Resilience Thinking as an Interdisciplinary Guiding Principle for Energy System Transitions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wiese, Frauke

2016-01-01

system research and is especially suitable due to its wide application across disciplines. The seven principles of resilience thinking (maintain redundancy and diversity, manage connectivity, manage slow variables and feedback, foster complex adaptive systems thinking, encourage learning, broaden...... thinking principles are used to assess the resilience of the target energy system, the pathway resilience and the design of the scenario process with respect to the probability of a resilient outcome. The described procedure consisting of questions and parameters can be applied as a first attempt...

Zero Energy Buildings – Design Principles and Built Examples

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bejder, Anne Kirkegaard; Knudstrup, Mary-Ann; Jensen, Rasmus Lund

Designing a zero energy building is a complicated task, and in order to achieve good results it is necessary to include knowledge from a range of sources. Therefore, cooperation is required between different professions and between generalists and specialists from the very beginning of the process...... for the development of zero energy houses. These strategies and technologies are illustrated through simple design principles and built examples • identify technical and architectural potentials and challenges related to design strategies of crucial importance to the development of zero energy houses • identify...... technical and architectural potentials and challenges related to the application of new technologies • make visible engineering and architectural issues and create greater transparency, providing a point of departure for cross-disciplinary cooperation....

Developing first time-series of land surface temperature from AATSR with uncertainty estimates

Science.gov (United States)

Ghent, Darren; Remedios, John

2013-04-01

Land surface temperature (LST) is the radiative skin temperature of the land, and is one of the key parameters in the physics of land-surface processes on regional and global scales. Earth Observation satellites provide the opportunity to obtain global coverage of LST approximately every 3 days or less. One such source of satellite retrieved LST has been the Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR); with LST retrieval being implemented in the AATSR Instrument Processing Facility in March 2004. Here we present first regional and global time-series of LST data from AATSR with estimates of uncertainty. Mean changes in temperature over the last decade will be discussed along with regional patterns. Although time-series across all three ATSR missions have previously been constructed (Kogler et al., 2012), the use of low resolution auxiliary data in the retrieval algorithm and non-optimal cloud masking resulted in time-series artefacts. As such, considerable ESA supported development has been carried out on the AATSR data to address these concerns. This includes the integration of high resolution auxiliary data into the retrieval algorithm and subsequent generation of coefficients and tuning parameters, plus the development of an improved cloud mask based on the simulation of clear sky conditions from radiance transfer modelling (Ghent et al., in prep.). Any inference on this LST record is though of limited value without the accompaniment of an uncertainty estimate; wherein the Joint Committee for Guides in Metrology quote an uncertainty as "a parameter associated with the result of a measurement that characterizes the dispersion of the values that could reasonably be attributed to the measurand that is the value of the particular quantity to be measured". Furthermore, pixel level uncertainty fields are a mandatory requirement in the on-going preparation of the LST product for the upcoming Sea and Land Surface Temperature (SLSTR) instrument on-board Sentinel-3

Investment Timing and Capacity Choice under Uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiumei Lv

2014-01-01

leader under greater uncertainty. Furthermore, both firms will provide more outputs in the face of increasing uncertainty and the growth rate of the follower’s capacity will exceed that of the leader’s. In addition, this paper finds that the follower will end up with a larger capacity than the leader.

Evaluating Uncertainty in GHG Emission Scenarios: Mapping IAM Outlooks With an Energy System Phase Space

Science.gov (United States)

Ritchie, W. J.; Dowlatabadi, H.

2017-12-01

Climate change modeling relies on projections of future greenhouse gas emissions and other phenomena leading to changes in planetary radiative forcing (RF). Pathways for long-run fossil energy use that map to total forcing outcomes are commonly depicted with integrated assessment models (IAMs). IAMs structure outlooks for 21st-century emissions with various theories for developments in demographics, economics, land-use, energy markets and energy service demands. These concepts are applied to understand global changes in two key factors relevant for scenarios of carbon emissions: total energy use (E) this century and the carbon intensity of that energy (F/E). A simple analytical and graphical approach can also illustrate the full range of outcomes for these variables to determine if IAMs provide sufficient coverage of the uncertainty space for future energy use. In this talk, we present a method for understanding uncertainties relevant to RF scenario components in a phase space. The phase space of a dynamic system represents significant factors as axes to capture the full range of physically possible states. A two-dimensional phase space of E and F/E presents the possible system states that can lead to various levels of total 21st-century carbon emissions. Once defined in this way, a phase space of these energy system coordinates allows for rapid characterization of large IAM scenario sets with machine learning techniques. This phase space method is applied to the levels of RF described by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The resulting RCP phase space identifies characteristics of the baseline energy system outlooks provided by IAMs for IPCC Working Group III. We conduct a k-means cluster analysis to distinguish the major features of IAM scenarios for each RCP range. Cluster analysis finds the IAM scenarios in AR5 illustrate RCPs with consistent combinations of energy resources. This suggests IAM scenarios understate uncertainty ranges for future

A real-time uncertainty-knowledge and training database

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Joergensen, H.E.; Santabarbara, J.M.; Mikkelsen, T.

1993-01-01

The paper describes an experimentally obtained database for training of uncertainties and data interpretation in connection with local scale accidental atmospheric dispersion scenarios. Based on remote measurement techniques using lidars, sequential 'snapshots', or movies, of the fluctuating concentration, profiles during several full scale diffusion experiments have been obtained. The aim has been to establish data sets suitable for comparison and training with the real-time atmospheric dispersion models in decision support systems, such as the RODOS system under development within the CEC. (author)

A real-time uncertainty-knowledge and training database

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ejsing Jørgensen, Hans; Santabarbara, J.M.; Mikkelsen, T.

1993-01-01

The paper describes an experimentally obtained database for training of uncertainties and data interpretation in connection with local scale accidental atmospheric dispersion scenarios. Based on remote measurement techniques using lidars, sequential 'snapshots', or movies. of the fluctuating...... concentration profiles during several full scale diffusion experiments has been obtained. The aim has been to establish data sets suitable tor comparison and training with the real-time atmospheric dispersion models in decision support systems, such as the RODOS system under development within the CEC....

A real-time assessment of measurement uncertainty in the experimental characterization of sprays

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Panão, M R O; Moreira, A L N

2008-01-01

This work addresses the estimation of the measurement uncertainty of discrete probability distributions used in the characterization of sprays. A real-time assessment of this measurement uncertainty is further investigated, particularly concerning the informative quality of the measured distribution and the influence of acquiring additional information on the knowledge retrieved from statistical analysis. The informative quality is associated with the entropy concept as understood in information theory (Shannon entropy), normalized by the entropy of the most informative experiment. A new empirical correlation is derived between the error accuracy of a discrete cumulative probability distribution and the normalized Shannon entropy. The results include case studies using: (i) spray impingement measurements to study the applicability of the real-time assessment of measurement uncertainty, and (ii) the simulation of discrete probability distributions of unknown shape or function to test the applicability of the new correlation

Energy Management strategies for Smart Home Regarding Uncertainties: State of the art, Trends, and Challenges

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Yousefi, Mojtaba; Hajizadeh, Amin; N. Soltani, Mohsen

2018-01-01

The advent of Smart grid and high-energy demand for electricity has provided new opportunities for energy management systems (EMSs) in a smart home (SH). Energy management strategies play a key role in performance and economy of smart homes integrating renewable energy resources, Heat Pumps (HP......), and Plug-in Electrical Vehicle (PEV) energy storages. This paper presents a critical review and analysis of different energy management strategies for SH to handle the uncertainties involved in renewable energy resources, home load demands, PEV charging requirements, and household comfort. In addition...

Constraints on negative-energy fluxes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ford, L.H.

1991-01-01

Locally negative energy due to quantum coherence effects in quantum field theory is discussed. In a previous work, it was argued that a beam carrying negative energy must satisfy an uncertainty-principle-type inequality of the form |ΔE|Δt≤1, where |ΔE| is the magnitude of the negative energy that may be transmitted in a time Δt. This conclusion applied only to two-dimensional spacetime, and was based on an examination of particular classes of quantum states. In the present work, we give more precise formulations of this type of inequality for a free massless scalar field in both two- and four-dimensional flat spacetime. These inequalities are proven to hold for all quantum states. The physical interpretation of these inequalities is also discussed, and it is argued that they are likely to prevent negative energy from producing such large-scale effects as violations of the second law of thermodynamics or of cosmic censorship

Resilience Thinking as an Interdisciplinary Guiding Principle for Energy System Transitions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Frauke Wiese

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Resource usage and environmental consequences of most current energy systems exceed planetary boundaries. The transition to sustainable energy systems is accompanied by a multitude of research methods, as energy systems are complex structures of technical, economical, social and ecological interactions. The description of different discipline’s perspectives in this paper show that a more mutual understanding between disciplines of their respective focus is necessary as they partly create internally competitive views arising from differing emphasis of connected matters. The purpose of this paper is to present a framework for interdisciplinary proceeding in a complex energy system transition process. Resilience thinking is chosen as a core concept for a more holistic view on sustainable energy system development. It is shown that it is already widely used in different disciplines connected to energy system research and is especially suitable due to its wide application across disciplines. The seven principles of resilience thinking (maintain redundancy and diversity, manage connectivity, manage slow variables and feedback, foster complex adaptive systems thinking, encourage learning, broaden participation, and promote polycentric governance systems are chosen as the basis for a procedure that can be utilized to increase the interdisciplinary perspectives of energy system transitions. For energy transition processes based on scenario development, backcasting and pathway definition, resilience thinking principles are used to assess the resilience of the target energy system, the pathway resilience and the design of the scenario process with respect to the probability of a resilient outcome. The described procedure consisting of questions and parameters can be applied as a first attempt for a resilience assessment of energy transition processes. The perspective of resilience in sustainable energy systems strengthens the importance of diversity

Uncertainty evaluation of a regional real-time system for rain-induced landslides

Science.gov (United States)

Kirschbaum, Dalia; Stanley, Thomas; Yatheendradas, Soni

2015-04-01

A new prototype regional model and evaluation framework has been developed over Central America and the Caribbean region using satellite-based information including precipitation estimates, modeled soil moisture, topography, soils, as well as regionally available datasets such as road networks and distance to fault zones. The algorithm framework incorporates three static variables: a susceptibility map; a 24-hr rainfall triggering threshold; and an antecedent soil moisture variable threshold, which have been calibrated using historic landslide events. The thresholds are regionally heterogeneous and are based on the percentile distribution of the rainfall or antecedent moisture time series. A simple decision tree algorithm framework integrates all three variables with the rainfall and soil moisture time series and generates a landslide nowcast in real-time based on the previous 24 hours over this region. This system has been evaluated using several available landslide inventories over the Central America and Caribbean region. Spatiotemporal uncertainty and evaluation metrics of the model are presented here based on available landslides reports. This work also presents a probabilistic representation of potential landslide activity over the region which can be used to further refine and improve the real-time landslide hazard assessment system as well as better identify and characterize the uncertainties inherent in this type of regional approach. The landslide algorithm provides a flexible framework to improve hazard estimation and reduce uncertainty at any spatial and temporal scale.

Uncertainties in global radiation time series forecasting using machine learning: The multilayer perceptron case

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Voyant, Cyril; Notton, Gilles; Darras, Christophe; Fouilloy, Alexis; Motte, Fabrice

2017-01-01

As global solar radiation forecasting is a very important challenge, several methods are devoted to this goal with different levels of accuracy and confidence. In this study we propose to better understand how the uncertainty is propagated in the context of global radiation time series forecasting using machine learning. Indeed we propose to decompose the error considering four kinds of uncertainties: the error due to the measurement, the variability of time series, the machine learning uncertainty and the error related to the horizon. All these components of the error allow to determinate a global uncertainty generating prediction bands related to the prediction efficiency. We also have defined a reliability index which could be very interesting for the grid manager in order to estimate the validity of predictions. We have experimented this method on a multilayer perceptron which is a popular machine learning technique. We have shown that the global error and its components are essential to quantify in order to estimate the reliability of the model outputs. The described method has been successfully applied to four meteorological stations in Mediterranean area. - Highlights: • Solar irradiation predictions require confidence bands. • There are a lot of kinds of uncertainties to take into account in order to propose prediction bands. • the ranking of different kinds of uncertainties is essential to propose an operational tool for the grid managers.

Zero Energy Buildings – Design Principles and Built Examples

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Designing a zero energy building is a complicated task, and in order to achieve good results it is necessary to include knowledge from a range of sources. Therefore, cooperation is required between different professions and between generalists and specialists from the very beginning of the process...... knowledge must be acquired, depending on the project in question. Through a cross-disciplinary approach to architecture and building design, and based on an integrated design process, this publication will: • introduce a number of design strategies and technologies which are particularly important...... for the development of zero energy houses. These strategies and technologies are illustrated through simple design principles and built examples • identify technical and architectural potentials and challenges related to design strategies of crucial importance to the development of zero energy houses • identify...

Logarithmic corrections to the uncertainty principle and infinitude of the number of bound states of n-particle systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perez, J.F.; Coutinho, F.A.B.; Malta, C.P.

1985-01-01

It is shown that critical long distance behaviour for a two-body potential, defining the finiteness or infinitude of the number of negative eigenvalues of Schrodinger operators in ν-dimensions, are given by v sub(k) (r) = - [ν-2/2r] 2 - 1/(2rlnr) 2 + ... - 1/(2rlnr.lnlnr...ln sub(k)r) 2 where k=0,1... for ν not=2 and k=1,2... if ν=2. This result is a consequence of logarithmic corrections to an inequality known as Uncertainty Principle. If the continuum threshold in the N-body problem is defined by a two-cluster break up our results generate corrections to the existing sufficient conditions for the existence of infinitely many bound states. (Author) [pt

Uncertainty Relations and Possible Experience

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gregg Jaeger

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The uncertainty principle can be understood as a condition of joint indeterminacy of classes of properties in quantum theory. The mathematical expressions most closely associated with this principle have been the uncertainty relations, various inequalities exemplified by the well known expression regarding position and momentum introduced by Heisenberg. Here, recent work involving a new sort of “logical” indeterminacy principle and associated relations introduced by Pitowsky, expressable directly in terms of probabilities of outcomes of measurements of sharp quantum observables, is reviewed and its quantum nature is discussed. These novel relations are derivable from Boolean “conditions of possible experience” of the quantum realm and have been considered both as fundamentally logical and as fundamentally geometrical. This work focuses on the relationship of indeterminacy to the propositions regarding the values of discrete, sharp observables of quantum systems. Here, reasons for favoring each of these two positions are considered. Finally, with an eye toward future research related to indeterminacy relations, further novel approaches grounded in category theory and intended to capture and reconceptualize the complementarity characteristics of quantum propositions are discussed in relation to the former.

Exascale for Energy: The Role of Exascale Computing in Energy Security

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-01-01

How will the United States satisfy energy demand in a tightening global energy marketplace while, at the same time, reducing greenhouse gas emissions? Exascale computing - expected to be available within the next eight to ten years - may play a crucial role in answering that question by enabling a paradigm shift from test-based to science-based design and engineering. Computational modeling of complete power generation systems and engines, based on scientific first principles, will accelerate the improvement of existing energy technologies and the development of new transformational technologies by pre-selecting the designs most likely to be successful for experimental validation, rather than relying on trial and error. The predictive understanding of complex engineered systems made possible by computational modeling will also reduce the construction and operations costs, optimize performance, and improve safety. Exascale computing will make possible fundamentally new approaches to quantifying the uncertainty of safety and performance engineering. This report discusses potential contributions of exa-scale modeling in four areas of energy production and distribution: nuclear power, combustion, the electrical grid, and renewable sources of energy, which include hydrogen fuel, bioenergy conversion, photovoltaic solar energy, and wind turbines.

Large-uncertainty intelligent states for angular momentum and angle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goette, Joerg B; Zambrini, Roberta; Franke-Arnold, Sonja; Barnett, Stephen M

2005-01-01

The equality in the uncertainty principle for linear momentum and position is obtained for states which also minimize the uncertainty product. However, in the uncertainty relation for angular momentum and angular position both sides of the inequality are state dependent and therefore the intelligent states, which satisfy the equality, do not necessarily give a minimum for the uncertainty product. In this paper, we highlight the difference between intelligent states and minimum uncertainty states by investigating a class of intelligent states which obey the equality in the angular uncertainty relation while having an arbitrarily large uncertainty product. To develop an understanding for the uncertainties of angle and angular momentum for the large-uncertainty intelligent states we compare exact solutions with analytical approximations in two limiting cases

First-Principles Vibrational Electron Energy Loss Spectroscopy of β -Guanine

Science.gov (United States)

Radtke, G.; Taverna, D.; Lazzeri, M.; Balan, E.

2017-07-01

A general approach to model vibrational electron energy loss spectra obtained using an electron beam positioned away from the specimen is presented. The energy-loss probability of the fast electron is evaluated using first-principles quantum mechanical calculations (density functional theory) of the dielectric response of the specimen. The validity of the method is assessed using recently measured anhydrous β -guanine, an important molecular solid used by animals to produce structural colors. The good agreement between theory and experiments lays the basis for a quantitative interpretation of this spectroscopy in complex systems.

Feynman’s clock, a new variational principle, and parallel-in-time quantum dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

McClean, Jarrod R.; Parkhill, John A.; Aspuru-Guzik, Alán

2013-01-01

We introduce a discrete-time variational principle inspired by the quantum clock originally proposed by Feynman and use it to write down quantum evolution as a ground-state eigenvalue problem. The construction allows one to apply ground-state quantum many-body theory to quantum dynamics, extending the reach of many highly developed tools from this fertile research area. Moreover, this formalism naturally leads to an algorithm to parallelize quantum simulation over time. We draw an explicit connection between previously known time-dependent variational principles and the time-embedded variational principle presented. Sample calculations are presented, applying the idea to a hydrogen molecule and the spin degrees of freedom of a model inorganic compound, demonstrating the parallel speedup of our method as well as its flexibility in applying ground-state methodologies. Finally, we take advantage of the unique perspective of this variational principle to examine the error of basis approximations in quantum dynamics. PMID:24062428

Asymmetric Uncertainty Expression for High Gradient Aerodynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Pinier, Jeremy T

2012-01-01

When the physics of the flow around an aircraft changes very abruptly either in time or space (e.g., flow separation/reattachment, boundary layer transition, unsteadiness, shocks, etc), the measurements that are performed in a simulated environment like a wind tunnel test or a computational simulation will most likely incorrectly predict the exact location of where (or when) the change in physics happens. There are many reasons for this, includ- ing the error introduced by simulating a real system at a smaller scale and at non-ideal conditions, or the error due to turbulence models in a computational simulation. The un- certainty analysis principles that have been developed and are being implemented today do not fully account for uncertainty in the knowledge of the location of abrupt physics changes or sharp gradients, leading to a potentially underestimated uncertainty in those areas. To address this problem, a new asymmetric aerodynamic uncertainty expression containing an extra term to account for a phase-uncertainty, the magnitude of which is emphasized in the high-gradient aerodynamic regions is proposed in this paper. Additionally, based on previous work, a method for dispersing aerodynamic data within asymmetric uncer- tainty bounds in a more realistic way has been developed for use within Monte Carlo-type analyses.

Moving Beyond 2% Uncertainty: A New Framework for Quantifying Lidar Uncertainty

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Newman, Jennifer F.; Clifton, Andrew

2017-03-08

Remote sensing of wind using lidar is revolutionizing wind energy. However, current generations of wind lidar are ascribed a climatic value of uncertainty, which is based on a poor description of lidar sensitivity to external conditions. In this presentation, we show how it is important to consider the complete lidar measurement process to define the measurement uncertainty, which in turn offers the ability to define a much more granular and dynamic measurement uncertainty. This approach is a progression from the 'white box' lidar uncertainty method.

Uncertainty in prediction and in inference

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hilgevoord, J.; Uffink, J.

1991-01-01

The concepts of uncertainty in prediction and inference are introduced and illustrated using the diffraction of light as an example. The close relationship between the concepts of uncertainty in inference and resolving power is noted. A general quantitative measure of uncertainty in inference can be obtained by means of the so-called statistical distance between probability distributions. When applied to quantum mechanics, this distance leads to a measure of the distinguishability of quantum states, which essentially is the absolute value of the matrix element between the states. The importance of this result to the quantum mechanical uncertainty principle is noted. The second part of the paper provides a derivation of the statistical distance on the basis of the so-called method of support

Time-Resolved Particle Image Velocimetry Measurements with Wall Shear Stress and Uncertainty Quantification for the FDA Nozzle Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Raben, Jaime S; Hariharan, Prasanna; Robinson, Ronald; Malinauskas, Richard; Vlachos, Pavlos P

2016-03-01

We present advanced particle image velocimetry (PIV) processing, post-processing, and uncertainty estimation techniques to support the validation of computational fluid dynamics analyses of medical devices. This work is an extension of a previous FDA-sponsored multi-laboratory study, which used a medical device mimicking geometry referred to as the FDA benchmark nozzle model. Experimental measurements were performed using time-resolved PIV at five overlapping regions of the model for Reynolds numbers in the nozzle throat of 500, 2000, 5000, and 8000. Images included a twofold increase in spatial resolution in comparison to the previous study. Data was processed using ensemble correlation, dynamic range enhancement, and phase correlations to increase signal-to-noise ratios and measurement accuracy, and to resolve flow regions with large velocity ranges and gradients, which is typical of many blood-contacting medical devices. Parameters relevant to device safety, including shear stress at the wall and in bulk flow, were computed using radial basis functions. In addition, in-field spatially resolved pressure distributions, Reynolds stresses, and energy dissipation rates were computed from PIV measurements. Velocity measurement uncertainty was estimated directly from the PIV correlation plane, and uncertainty analysis for wall shear stress at each measurement location was performed using a Monte Carlo model. Local velocity uncertainty varied greatly and depended largely on local conditions such as particle seeding, velocity gradients, and particle displacements. Uncertainty in low velocity regions in the sudden expansion section of the nozzle was greatly reduced by over an order of magnitude when dynamic range enhancement was applied. Wall shear stress uncertainty was dominated by uncertainty contributions from velocity estimations, which were shown to account for 90-99% of the total uncertainty. This study provides advancements in the PIV processing methodologies over

An information-theoretic basis for uncertainty analysis: application to the QUASAR severe accident study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Unwin, S.D.; Cazzoli, E.G.; Davis, R.E.; Khatib-Rahbar, M.; Lee, M.; Nourbakhsh, H.; Park, C.K.; Schmidt, E.

1989-01-01

The probabilistic characterization of uncertainty can be problematic in circumstances where there is a paucity of supporting data and limited experience on which to base engineering judgement. Information theory provides a framework in which to address this issue through reliance upon entropy-related principles of uncertainty maximization. We describe an application of such principles in the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission-sponsored program QUASAR (Quantification and Uncertainty Analysis of Source Terms for Severe Accidents in Light Water Reactors). (author)

The principle of finiteness – a guideline for physical laws

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sternlieb, Abraham

2013-01-01

I propose a new principle in physics-the principle of finiteness (FP). It stems from the definition of physics as a science that deals with measurable dimensional physical quantities. Since measurement results including their errors, are always finite, FP postulates that the mathematical formulation of legitimate laws in physics should prevent exactly zero or infinite solutions. I propose finiteness as a postulate, as opposed to a statement whose validity has to be corroborated by, or derived theoretically or experimentally from other facts, theories or principles. Some consequences of FP are discussed, first in general, and then more specifically in the fields of special relativity, quantum mechanics, and quantum gravity. The corrected Lorentz transformations include an additional translation term depending on the minimum length epsilon. The relativistic gamma is replaced by a corrected gamma, that is finite for v=c. To comply with FP, physical laws should include the relevant extremum finite values in their mathematical formulation. An important prediction of FP is that there is a maximum attainable relativistic mass/energy which is the same for all subatomic particles, meaning that there is a maximum theoretical value for cosmic rays energy. The Generalized Uncertainty Principle required by Quantum Gravity is actually a necessary consequence of FP at Planck's scale. Therefore, FP may possibly contribute to the axiomatic foundation of Quantum Gravity.

Entropic formulation of the uncertainty principle for the number and annihilation operators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rastegin, Alexey E

2011-01-01

An entropic approach to formulating uncertainty relations for the number-annihilation pair is considered. We construct some normal operator that traces the annihilation operator as well as commuting quadratures with a complete system of common eigenfunctions. Expanding the measured wave function with respect to them, one obtains a relevant probability distribution. Another distribution is naturally generated by measuring the number operator. Due to the Riesz-Thorin theorem, there exists a nontrivial inequality between corresponding functionals of the above distributions. We find the bound in this inequality and further derive uncertainty relations in terms of both the Rényi and Tsallis entropies. Entropic uncertainty relations for a continuous distribution as well as relations for a discretized one are presented. (comment)

Energy network dispatch optimization under emergency of local energy shortage

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cai, Tianxing; Zhao, Chuanyu; Xu, Qiang

2012-01-01

The consequence of short-time energy shortage under extreme conditions, such as earthquake, tsunami, and hurricane, may cause local areas to suffer from delayed rescues, widespread power outages, tremendous economic losses, and even public safety threats. In such urgent events of local energy shortage, agile energy dispatching through an effective energy transportation network, targeting the minimum energy recovery time, should be a top priority. In this paper, a novel methodology is developed for energy network dispatch optimization under emergency of local energy shortage, which includes four stages of work. First, emergency-area-centered energy network needs to be characterized, where the capacity, quantity, and availability of various energy sources are determined. Second, the energy initial situation under emergency conditions needs to be identified. Then, the energy dispatch optimization is conducted based on a developed MILP (mixed-integer linear programming) model in the third stage. Finally, the sensitivity of the minimum dispatch time with respect to uncertainty parameters is characterized by partitioning the entire space of uncertainty parameters into multiple subspaces. The efficacy of the developed methodology is demonstrated via a case study with in-depth discussions. -- Highlights: ► Address the energy network dispatch problem under emergency of local energy shortage. ► Minimize the energy restoration time for the entire energy network under emergency events. ► Develop a new MILP model and a sensitivity analysis method with respect to uncertainties.

Evolution of China's power dispatch principle and the new energy saving power dispatch policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ciwei, Gao; Yang, Li

2010-01-01

With social economic reform in the past decades, the power industry of China is gradually evolving from a highly integrated one toward an electricity market, which can be characterized based on the transition of the power dispatch principle. To attract investment in the power generating industry, China introduced non-state-owned power plants to the original system of a highly vertically integrated power industry with annual power generation quota guarantees, which makes the traditional economic dispatch principle not applicable. The newly debuted energy saving power dispatch (ESPD) is an attempt to fully exploit the maximum energy savings and was implemented by an administrative code. Starting in August 2007, the pilot operation of the ESPD was implemented in five provinces, but after two years, it is still not widely applied all over the country. This paper details the transition of China's power dispatch principle with particular attention to its origin and content. Moreover, the factors that influence the ESPD's actual energy saving effect are discussed, as well as the sustainability of the policy. (author)

Uncertainty modeling process for semantic technology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rommel N. Carvalho

2016-08-01

Full Text Available The ubiquity of uncertainty across application domains generates a need for principled support for uncertainty management in semantically aware systems. A probabilistic ontology provides constructs for representing uncertainty in domain ontologies. While the literature has been growing on formalisms for representing uncertainty in ontologies, there remains little guidance in the knowledge engineering literature for how to design probabilistic ontologies. To address the gap, this paper presents the Uncertainty Modeling Process for Semantic Technology (UMP-ST, a new methodology for modeling probabilistic ontologies. To explain how the methodology works and to verify that it can be applied to different scenarios, this paper describes step-by-step the construction of a proof-of-concept probabilistic ontology. The resulting domain model can be used to support identification of fraud in public procurements in Brazil. While the case study illustrates the development of a probabilistic ontology in the PR-OWL probabilistic ontology language, the methodology is applicable to any ontology formalism that properly integrates uncertainty with domain semantics.

China's energy system transformation towards the 2 °C goal: Implications of different effort-sharing principles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xunzhang, Pan; Wenying, Chen; Clarke, Leon E.; Lining, Wang; Guannan, Liu

2017-01-01

In coping with climate change, China's CO_2 mitigation targets should keep in step with the achievement of the long-term goal of holding temperature increase to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels by the end of this century (this is referred to as the 2 °C goal). Many previous papers have highlighted the implications of different effort-sharing principles and schemes in determining national contributions to global mitigations. In this paper, China's energy transformation towards the 2 °C goal until 2100 is examined in an integrated-assessment model in light of different effort-sharing principles to understand how the application of such schemes may alter China's energy system transformation on a pathway to this long-term goal. Across scenarios, China's non-fossil energy will account for 50–70% and 85% of primary energy consumption in 2050 and 2100, respectively in the scenarios in this study. Fossil energy with carbon capture and storage technologies and non-fossil energy will dominate power generation in China over the long run. Coal will be phased out in end-use sectors and electricity use will expand regardless of the effort-sharing principles. The sensitivity analysis of long-term steady-state levels implies that the ultimate level that emissions could reach will have great influences on the energy system transformation in China. - Highlights: • China's energy transformation towards the 2 °C goal until 2100 are examined in a bottom-up model. • The implications of effort-sharing principles on China's mitigations beyond 2030 are analyzed. • The achievement of China's INDC is incorporated in the discussion. • The sensitivity analysis of long-term emissions levels is discussed. • Non-fossil energy would account for 50–70% and 85% of primary energy consumption in 2050 and 2100.

Uncertainty Quantification of the Real-Time Reserves for Offshore Wind Power Plants

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Göçmen, Tuhfe; Giebel, Gregor; Réthoré, Pierre-Elouan

In order to retain the system stability, the wind power plants are required to provide ancillary services. One of those services is reserve power. Here in this study, we focus on the real-time reserves which can be traded in the balancing markets and are currently used for compensation under...... mandatory downregulation stated by the transmission system operators (TSOs). The PossPOW project (Possible Power of down-regulated Offshore Wind power plants) developed a real-time power curve of available power for offshore wind farms for use during down-regulation. The follow-up Concert project......(control and uncertainties in real-time power curves of offshore wind power plants) aims to quantify and finally reduce the uncertainty in reserve power, bringing the PossPOW algorithm and the state of the art forecasting methods together. The experiments designed to test the available power estimated by the Poss...

Some applications of the most general form of the higher-order GUP with minimal length uncertainty and maximal momentum

Science.gov (United States)

Shababi, Homa; Chung, Won Sang

2018-04-01

In this paper, using the new type of D-dimensional nonperturbative Generalized Uncertainty Principle (GUP) which has predicted both a minimal length uncertainty and a maximal observable momentum,1 first, we obtain the maximally localized states and express their connections to [P. Pedram, Phys. Lett. B 714, 317 (2012)]. Then, in the context of our proposed GUP and using the generalized Schrödinger equation, we solve some important problems including particle in a box and one-dimensional hydrogen atom. Next, implying modified Bohr-Sommerfeld quantization, we obtain energy spectra of quantum harmonic oscillator and quantum bouncer. Finally, as an example, we investigate some statistical properties of a free particle, including partition function and internal energy, in the presence of the mentioned GUP.

Extending Newton's law from nonlocal-in-time kinetic energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Suykens, J.A.K.

2009-01-01

We study a new equation of motion derived from a context of classical Newtonian mechanics by replacing the kinetic energy with a form of nonlocal-in-time kinetic energy. It leads to a hypothetical extension of Newton's second law of motion. In a first stage the obtainable solution form is studied by considering an unknown value for the nonlocality time extent. This is done in relation to higher-order Euler-Lagrange equations and a Hamiltonian framework. In a second stage the free particle case and harmonic oscillator case are studied and compared with quantum mechanical results. For a free particle it is shown that the solution form is a superposition of the classical straight line motion and a Fourier series. We discuss the link with quanta interpretations made in Pais-Uhlenbeck oscillators. The discrete nature emerges from the continuous time setting through application of the least action principle. The harmonic oscillator case leads to energy levels that approximately correspond to the quantum harmonic oscillator levels. The solution to the extended Newton equation also admits a quantization of the nonlocality time extent, which is determined by the classical oscillator frequency. The extended equation suggests a new possible way for understanding the relationship between classical and quantum mechanics

Uncertainties in modeling low-energy neutrino-induced reactions on iron-group nuclei

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paar, N.; Vretenar, D.; Suzuki, T.; Honma, M.; Marketin, T.

2011-01-01

Charged-current neutrino-nucleus cross sections for 54,56 Fe and 58,60 Ni are calculated and compared using frameworks based on relativistic and Skyrme energy-density functionals and on the shell model. The current theoretical uncertainties in modeling neutrino-nucleus cross sections are assessed in relation to the predicted Gamow-Teller transition strength and available data, to multipole decomposition of the cross sections, and to cross sections averaged over the Michel flux and Fermi-Dirac distribution. By employing different microscopic approaches and models, the decay-at-rest (DAR) neutrino- 56 Fe cross section and its theoretical uncertainty are estimated to be th =(258±57)x10 -42 cm 2 , in very good agreement with the experimental value exp =(256±108±43)x10 -42 cm 2 .

Top-down instead of bottom-up estimates of uncertainty in INAA results?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bode, P.; De Nadai Fernandes, E.A.

2005-01-01

The initial publication of the ISO Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) and many related documents has resulted in a worldwide awareness of the importance of a realistic estimate of the value reported after the +/- sign. The evaluation of uncertainty in measurement, as introduced by the GUM, is derived from the principles applied in physical measurements. Many testing laboratories have already experienced large problems in applying these principles in e.g. (bio)chemical measurements, resulting in time-consuming evaluations and costly additional experiments. Other, more pragmatic and less costly approaches have been proposed to obtain a realistic estimate of the range in which the true value of the measurement may be found with a certain degree of probability. One of these approaches, the 'top-down method', is based on the standard deviation in the results of intercomparison data. This approach is much easier for tests for which it is either difficult to establish a full measurement equation, or if e.g. matrix-matching reference materials are absent. It has been demonstrated that the GUM 'bottom-up' approach of evaluating uncertainty in measurement can easily be applied in instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA) as all significant sources of uncertainty can be evaluated. INAA is therefore a valuable technique to test the validity of the top-down approach. In this contribution, examples of the top-down evaluation of uncertainty in INAA derived from participation in intercomparison rounds and proficiency testing schemes will be presented. The results will be compared with the bottom-up evaluation of uncertainty, and ease of applicability, validity and usefullness of both approaches will be discussed.

Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for fission product decay heat calculations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rebah, J.; Lee, Y.K.; Nimal, J.C.; Nimal, B.; Luneville, L.; Duchemin, B.

1994-01-01

The calculated uncertainty in decay heat due to the uncertainty in basic nuclear data given in the CEA86 Library, is presented. Uncertainties in summation calculation arise from several sources: fission product yields, half-lives and average decay energies. The correlation between basic data is taken into account. The uncertainty analysis were obtained for thermal-neutron-induced fission of U235 and Pu239 in the case of burst fission and irradiation time. The calculated decay heat in this study is compared with experimental results and with new calculation using the JEF2 Library. (from authors) 6 figs., 19 refs

Role of nuclear fusion in future energy systems and the environment under future uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tokimatsu, Koji; Fujino, Jun'ichi; Konishi, Satoshi; Ogawa, Yuichi; Yamaji, Kenji

2003-01-01

Debates about whether or not to invest heavily in nuclear fusion as a future innovative energy option have been made within the context of energy technology development strategies. This is because the prospects for nuclear fusion are quite uncertain and the investments therefore carry the risk of quite large regrets, even though investment is needed in order to develop the technology. The timeframe by which nuclear fusion could become competitive in the energy market has not been adequately studied, nor has roles of the nuclear fusion in energy systems and the environment. The present study has two objectives. One is to reveal the conditions under which nuclear fusion could be introduced economically (hereafter, we refer to such introductory conditions as breakeven prices) in future energy systems. The other objective is to evaluate the future roles of nuclear fusion in energy systems and in the environment. Here we identify three roles that nuclear fusion will take on when breakeven prices are achieved: (i) a portion of the electricity market in 2100, (ii) reduction of annual global total energy systems cost, and (iii) mitigation of carbon tax (shadow price of carbon) under CO 2 constraints. Future uncertainties are key issues in evaluating nuclear fusion. Here we treated the following uncertainties: energy demand scenarios, introduction timeframe for nuclear fusion, capacity projections of nuclear fusion, CO 2 target in 2100, capacity utilization ratio of options in energy/environment technologies, and utility discount rates. From our investigations, we conclude that the presently designed nuclear fusion reactors may be ready for economical introduction into energy systems beginning around 2050-2060, and we can confirm that the favorable introduction of the reactors would reduce both the annual energy systems cost and the carbon tax (the shadow price of carbon) under a CO 2 concentration constraint

Combined Two-Stage Stochastic Programming and Receding Horizon Control Strategy for Microgrid Energy Management Considering Uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhongwen Li

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Microgrids (MGs are presented as a cornerstone of smart grids. With the potential to integrate intermittent renewable energy sources (RES in a flexible and environmental way, the MG concept has gained even more attention. Due to the randomness of RES, load, and electricity price in MG, the forecast errors of MGs will affect the performance of the power scheduling and the operating cost of an MG. In this paper, a combined stochastic programming and receding horizon control (SPRHC strategy is proposed for microgrid energy management under uncertainty, which combines the advantages of two-stage stochastic programming (SP and receding horizon control (RHC strategy. With an SP strategy, a scheduling plan can be derived that minimizes the risk of uncertainty by involving the uncertainty of MG in the optimization model. With an RHC strategy, the uncertainty within the MG can be further compensated through a feedback mechanism with the lately updated forecast information. In our approach, a proper strategy is also proposed to maintain the SP model as a mixed integer linear constrained quadratic programming (MILCQP problem, which is solvable without resorting to any heuristics algorithms. The results of numerical experiments explicitly demonstrate the superiority of the proposed strategy for both island and grid-connected operating modes of an MG.

Realistic Approach of the Relations of Uncertainty of Heisenberg

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paul E. Sterian

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Due to the requirements of the principle of causality in the theory of relativity, one cannot make a device for the simultaneous measuring of the canonical conjugate variables in the conjugate Fourier spaces. Instead of admitting that a particle’s position and its conjugate momentum cannot be accurately measured at the same time, we consider the only probabilities which can be determined when working at subatomic level to be valid. On the other hand, based on Schwinger's action principle and using the quadridimensional form of the unitary transformation generator function of the quantum operators in the paper, the general form of the evolution equation for these operators is established. In the nonrelativistic case one obtains the Heisenberg's type evolution equations which can be particularized to derive Heisenberg's uncertainty relations. The analysis of the uncertainty relations as implicit evolution equations allows us to put into evidence the intrinsic nature of the correlation expressed by these equations in straight relations with the measuring process. The independence of the quantisation postulate from the causal evolution postulate of quantum mechanics is also put into discussion.

Jet energy scale uncertainty correlations between ATLAS and CMS at $\\sqrt{s}=8$ TeV

CERN Document Server

The ATLAS collaboration

2015-01-01

An evaluation of the correlations between ATLAS and CMS jet energy scale uncertainties is presented for $\\sqrt{s}=8\\,\\mathrm{TeV}$ $pp$ collisions recorded in 2012. Uncertainties within each experiment are grouped based on the general type of systematic effect they are intended to cover and the means by which they are derived. Inter-experimental correlation value ranges are established for each corresponding group of uncertainty components. This correlation range is intended to cover the possible correlation values when performing combinations between the two experiments, where the most conservative value obtained from scanning over the correlation range should be used for the final combined measurement. The procedure described here is primarily aimed at single-observable analyses, and has limitations when applied to multi-observable measurements.

An integrated bi-level optimization model for air quality management of Beijing's energy system under uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Jin, S W; Li, Y P; Nie, S

2018-05-15

In this study, an interval chance-constrained bi-level programming (ICBP) method is developed for air quality management of municipal energy system under uncertainty. ICBP can deal with uncertainties presented as interval values and probability distributions as well as examine the risk of violating constraints. Besides, a leader-follower decision strategy is incorporated into the optimization process where two decision makers with different goals and preferences are involved. To solve the proposed model, a bi-level interactive algorithm based on satisfactory degree is introduced into the decision-making processes. Then, an ICBP based energy and environmental systems (ICBP-EES) model is formulated for Beijing, in which air quality index (AQI) is used for evaluating the integrated air quality of multiple pollutants. Result analysis can help different stakeholders adjust their tolerances to achieve the overall satisfaction of EES planning for the study city. Results reveal that natural gas is the main source for electricity-generation and heating that could lead to a potentially increment of imported energy for Beijing in future. Results also disclose that PM 10 is the major contributor to AQI. These findings can help decision makers to identify desired alternatives for EES planning and provide useful information for regional air quality management under uncertainty. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Scenario uncertainties in estimating direct land-use change emissions in biomass-to-energy life cycle assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Curtright, Aimee E.; Johnson, David R.; Willis, Henry H.; Skone, Timothy

2012-01-01

The use of biomass for energy production has increasingly been encouraged in the United States, in part motivated by the potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions relative to fossil fuels. However, the GHG-intensity of biomass-derived energy is highly dependent on how the biomass is obtained and used. We explore scenario uncertainty in GHG estimates in the Calculating Uncertainty in Biomass Emissions (CUBE) model and find that direct land-use change emissions that result during the biomass production often dominate the total “farm-to-hopper” GHGs. CUBE represents each land-use change decision as a conversion of land from one of four specified baseline ecosystem to produce one of seven feedstock crops, both distinct by geographic region, and then determines the implied changes in soil organic carbon, root carbon, and above-ground biomass. CUBE therefore synthesizes and organizes the existing literature to represent direct land-use change emissions in a way that can be more readily incorporated into life cycle assessment. Our approach to representing direct land-use change literature has been applied to a specific set of data and offers immediate implications for decisionmakers, but it can also be generalized and replicated in the future, making use of improved scientific data on the magnitude and rates of direct land-use change emissions as it becomes available. -- Highlights: ► The GHG-intensity of bioenergy depends on how the biomass is obtained and used. ► Total GHG emissions may be dominated by direct land-use change emissions. ► There is significant scenario uncertainty in emissions based on the location of production. ► Emissions vary based on time elapsed since land-use change conversions. ► Our approach can be generalized to use improved scientific data in the future.

Decommissioning Funding: Ethics, Implementation, Uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-01-01

This status report on decommissioning funding: ethics, implementation, uncertainties is based on a review of recent literature and materials presented at NEA meetings in 2003 and 2004, and particularly at a topical session organised in November 2004 on funding issues associated with the decommissioning of nuclear power facilities. The report also draws on the experience of the NEA Working Party on Decommissioning and Dismantling (WPDD). This report offers, in a concise form, an overview of relevant considerations on decommissioning funding mechanisms with regard to ethics, implementation and uncertainties. Underlying ethical principles found in international agreements are identified, and factors influencing the accumulation and management of funds for decommissioning nuclear facilities are discussed together with the main sources of uncertainties of funding systems

Basic principles of Swiss energy policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kiener, E.

1979-01-01

The author shows that Swiss energy problems, and the measures to be adopted for their solution, are similar to those in other industrial countries. For Switzerland water power is still the most important indigenous energy source. In energy policy it is necessary to make economies. It is important that those responsible for energy policy tackle the problems today, and not leave it to a time when it is too late. The author is convinced that science and engineering will make much more progress in the energy field. (orig.) [de

Correction of harmonic motion and Kepler orbit based on the minimal momentum uncertainty

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chung, Won Sang, E-mail: mimip4444@hanmail.net [Department of Physics and Research Institute of Natural Science, College of Natural Science, Gyeongsang National University, Jinju 660-701 (Korea, Republic of); Hassanabadi, Hassan, E-mail: h.hasanabadi@shahroodut.ac.ir [Physics Department, Shahrood University of Technology, Shahrood (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

2017-03-18

In this paper we consider the deformed Heisenberg uncertainty principle with the minimal uncertainty in momentum which is called a minimal momentum uncertainty principle (MMUP). We consider MMUP in D-dimension and its classical analogue. Using these we investigate the MMUP effect for the harmonic motion and Kepler orbit. - Highlights: • We discussed minimal momentum uncertainty relation. • We considered MMUR in D-dimension and used the deformed Poisson bracket to find the classical mechanics based on the MMUR. • Using these we investigate the MMUR effect for the harmonic motion and Kepler orbit. • Especially, we computed the corrected precession angle for each case. • We found that the corrected precession angle is always positive.

Planning regional energy system in association with greenhouse gas mitigation under uncertainty

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Li, Y.P.; Huang, G.H. [Research Academy of Energy and Environmental Studies, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206 (China); Chen, X. [Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology and Desert Environment, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830011 (China)

2011-03-15

Greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations are expected to continue to rise due to the ever-increasing use of fossil fuels and ever-boosting demand for energy. This leads to inevitable conflict between satisfying increasing energy demand and reducing GHG emissions. In this study, an integrated fuzzy-stochastic optimization model (IFOM) is developed for planning energy systems in association with GHG mitigation. Multiple uncertainties presented as probability distributions, fuzzy-intervals and their combinations are allowed to be incorporated within the framework of IFOM. The developed method is then applied to a case study of long-term planning of a regional energy system, where integer programming (IP) technique is introduced into the IFOM to facilitate dynamic analysis for capacity-expansion planning of energy-production facilities within a multistage context to satisfy increasing energy demand. Solutions related fuzzy and probability information are obtained and can be used for generating decision alternatives. The results can not only provide optimal energy resource/service allocation and capacity-expansion plans, but also help decision-makers identify desired policies for GHG mitigation with a cost-effective manner. (author)

Development of an integrated optimization method for analyzing effect of energy conversion efficiency under uncertainty – A case study of Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture, China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jin, S.W.; Li, Y.P.; Huang, G.H.; Hao, Q.; Nie, S.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Superiority–inferiority full-infinite mixed-integer method is developed. • The method can tackle uncertainties of fuzzy sets, crisp and functional intervals. • The method is applied to a real case of planning energy system. • Effects of energy-conversion efficiency on energy systems are analyzed. • Results can support policy enactment of conversion efficiency improvement. - Abstract: In this study, a superiority–inferiority full-infinite mixed-integer programming (SFMP) method is developed for analyzing the effect of energy conversion efficiency under uncertainty. SFMP can effectively tackle uncertainties expressed as fuzzy sets, crisp intervals and functional intervals, it also can directly reflect relationships among multiple fuzzy sets through varying superiority and inferiority degrees with a high computational efficiency. Then the developed SFMP is applied to a real case of planning energy system for Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture, where multiple scenarios related to different energy-conversion efficiency are concerned. Results for energy processing, energy conversion, capacity expansion, pollutant emission and system cost have been generated. It is proved that SFMP is an effective approach to deal with the uncertainties in energy systems with interactive and uncertain characteristics. A variety of uncertainties existed in energy conversion processes and impact factors could affect the modeling result. Results show that improvement of energy-conversion efficiency can effectively facilitate reducing energy resources consumption, optimizing energy generation pattern, decreasing capacity expansion, as well as mitigating pollutant emissions. Results also reveal that, for the study area, electric power has a highest energy saving potential among heating, oil processing, coal washing and refining. Results can help decision makers to generate desired alternatives that can facilitate policy enactment of conversion efficiency

On entropic uncertainty relations in the presence of a minimal length

Science.gov (United States)

Rastegin, Alexey E.

2017-07-01

Entropic uncertainty relations for the position and momentum within the generalized uncertainty principle are examined. Studies of this principle are motivated by the existence of a minimal observable length. Then the position and momentum operators satisfy the modified commutation relation, for which more than one algebraic representation is known. One of them is described by auxiliary momentum so that the momentum and coordinate wave functions are connected by the Fourier transform. However, the probability density functions of the physically true and auxiliary momenta are different. As the corresponding entropies differ, known entropic uncertainty relations are changed. Using differential Shannon entropies, we give a state-dependent formulation with correction term. State-independent uncertainty relations are obtained in terms of the Rényi entropies and the Tsallis entropies with binning. Such relations allow one to take into account a finiteness of measurement resolution.

Rigorous Statistical Bounds in Uncertainty Quantification for One-Layer Turbulent Geophysical Flows

Science.gov (United States)

Qi, Di; Majda, Andrew J.

2018-04-01

Statistical bounds controlling the total fluctuations in mean and variance about a basic steady-state solution are developed for the truncated barotropic flow over topography. Statistical ensemble prediction is an important topic in weather and climate research. Here, the evolution of an ensemble of trajectories is considered using statistical instability analysis and is compared and contrasted with the classical deterministic instability for the growth of perturbations in one pointwise trajectory. The maximum growth of the total statistics in fluctuations is derived relying on the statistical conservation principle of the pseudo-energy. The saturation bound of the statistical mean fluctuation and variance in the unstable regimes with non-positive-definite pseudo-energy is achieved by linking with a class of stable reference states and minimizing the stable statistical energy. Two cases with dependence on initial statistical uncertainty and on external forcing and dissipation are compared and unified under a consistent statistical stability framework. The flow structures and statistical stability bounds are illustrated and verified by numerical simulations among a wide range of dynamical regimes, where subtle transient statistical instability exists in general with positive short-time exponential growth in the covariance even when the pseudo-energy is positive-definite. Among the various scenarios in this paper, there exist strong forward and backward energy exchanges between different scales which are estimated by the rigorous statistical bounds.

Uncertainty analysis and validation of environmental models. The empirically based uncertainty analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Monte, Luigi; Hakanson, Lars; Bergstroem, Ulla; Brittain, John; Heling, Rudie

1996-01-01

The principles of Empirically Based Uncertainty Analysis (EBUA) are described. EBUA is based on the evaluation of 'performance indices' that express the level of agreement between the model and sets of empirical independent data collected in different experimental circumstances. Some of these indices may be used to evaluate the confidence limits of the model output. The method is based on the statistical analysis of the distribution of the index values and on the quantitative relationship of these values with the ratio 'experimental data/model output'. Some performance indices are described in the present paper. Among these, the so-called 'functional distance' (d) between the logarithm of model output and the logarithm of the experimental data, defined as d 2 =Σ n 1 ( ln M i - ln O i ) 2 /n where M i is the i-th experimental value, O i the corresponding model evaluation and n the number of the couplets 'experimental value, predicted value', is an important tool for the EBUA method. From the statistical distribution of this performance index, it is possible to infer the characteristics of the distribution of the ratio 'experimental data/model output' and, consequently to evaluate the confidence limits for the model predictions. This method was applied to calculate the uncertainty level of a model developed to predict the migration of radiocaesium in lacustrine systems. Unfortunately, performance indices are affected by the uncertainty of the experimental data used in validation. Indeed, measurement results of environmental levels of contamination are generally associated with large uncertainty due to the measurement and sampling techniques and to the large variability in space and time of the measured quantities. It is demonstrated that this non-desired effect, in some circumstances, may be corrected by means of simple formulae

Factors and uncertainties in the profitability of using nuclear energy in desalination of water

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thiriet, L.; Lievre, P.

1969-01-01

One of the economic advantages of nuclear energy consists of the small proportional element in its cost structure. Economies of scale favour the nuclear station as compared with the conventional thermal one, and when the demand for electricity and heat, in particular for desalination, are sufficient, nuclear energy may, subject to certain conditions, prove advantageous. The object of this paper is to discuss the validity of the conclusions reached according to the hypotheses adopted. In the first part, the different kind of uncertainties connected with technical, economic and financial data (the various transmission coefficients, the life of equipment according to the choice of materials, changes in prices, the form of price functions and interest rates), and with the various constraints, are examined and discussed. In the second part the uncertainties connected with the method of optimisation used and the criterion of selection adopted are examined and discussed. It is shown thereby that it is usually extremely difficult to assume absolutely the competitiveness, or conversely the non-competitiveness, of using nuclear energy in the desalination of water, and that a large number of aspects have to be carefully examined. (author) [fr

An interval fixed-mix stochastic programming method for greenhouse gas mitigation in energy systems under uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xie, Y.L.; Li, Y.P.; Huang, G.H.; Li, Y.F.

2010-01-01

In this study, an interval fixed-mix stochastic programming (IFSP) model is developed for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction management under uncertainties. In the IFSP model, methods of interval-parameter programming (IPP) and fixed-mix stochastic programming (FSP) are introduced into an integer programming framework, such that the developed model can tackle uncertainties described in terms of interval values and probability distributions over a multi-stage context. Moreover, it can reflect dynamic decisions for facility-capacity expansion during the planning horizon. The developed model is applied to a case of planning GHG-emission mitigation, demonstrating that IFSP is applicable to reflecting complexities of multi-uncertainty, dynamic and interactive energy management systems, and capable of addressing the problem of GHG-emission reduction. A number of scenarios corresponding to different GHG-emission mitigation levels are examined; the results suggest that reasonable solutions have been generated. They can be used for generating plans for energy resource/electricity allocation and capacity expansion and help decision makers identify desired GHG mitigation policies under various economic costs and environmental requirements.

Performance improvement of a battery/PV/fuel cell/grid hybrid energy system considering load uncertainty modeling using IGDT

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nojavan, Sayyad; Majidi, Majid; Zare, Kazem

2017-01-01

Highlights: • Optimum performance of PV/battery/fuel cell/grid hybrid system under load uncertainty. • Employing information gap decision theory (IGDT) to model the load uncertainty. • Robustness and opportunity functions of IGDT are modeled for risk-averse and risk-taker. • Robust strategy of hybrid system's operation obtained from robustness function. • Opportunistic strategy of hybrid system's operation obtained from opportunity function. - Abstract: Nowadays with the speed that electrical loads are growing, system operators are challenged to manage the sources they use to supply loads which means that that besides upstream grid as the main sources of electric power, they can utilize renewable and non-renewable energy sources to meet the energy demand. In the proposed paper, a photovoltaic (PV)/fuel cell/battery hybrid system along with upstream grid has been utilized to supply two different types of loads: electrical load and thermal load. Operators should have to consider load uncertainty to manage the strategies they employ to supply load. In other words, operators have to evaluate how load variation would affect their energy procurement strategies. Therefore, information gap decision theory (IGDT) technique has been proposed to model the uncertainty of electrical load. Utilizing IGDT approach, robustness and opportunity functions are achieved which can be used by system operator to take the appropriate strategy. The uncertainty modeling of load enables operator to make appropriate decisions to optimize the system’s operation against possible changes in load. A case study has been simulated to validate the effects of proposed technique.

Uncertainty in spatial planning proceedings

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aleš Mlakar

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Uncertainty is distinctive of spatial planning as it arises from the necessity to co-ordinate the various interests within the area, from the urgency of adopting spatial planning decisions, the complexity of the environment, physical space and society, addressing the uncertainty of the future and from the uncertainty of actually making the right decision. Response to uncertainty is a series of measures that mitigate the effects of uncertainty itself. These measures are based on two fundamental principles – standardization and optimization. The measures are related to knowledge enhancement and spatial planning comprehension, in the legal regulation of changes, in the existence of spatial planning as a means of different interests co-ordination, in the active planning and the constructive resolution of current spatial problems, in the integration of spatial planning and the environmental protection process, in the implementation of the analysis as the foundation of spatial planners activities, in the methods of thinking outside the parameters, in forming clear spatial concepts and in creating a transparent management spatial system and also in the enforcement the participatory processes.

Real-time Executive for a basic principle simulator

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buerger, L.; Szegi, Zs.; Vegh, E.

1987-09-01

A basic principle simulator for WWER-440 type nuclear power plants is under development in the Central Research Institute for Physics, Budapest. So far the technological models of both to primary and secondary circuits are ready and this paper presents the Real-time Executive and the on-line operating environment which controls the simulator. This executive system contains eight programs and the detailed structure of the data base is presented. The control of the execution of the model programs, their timing and the error recoveries are also discussed. (author) 5 refs

Design optimization under uncertainty and speed variability for a piezoelectric energy harvester powering a tire pressure monitoring sensor

Science.gov (United States)

Toghi Eshghi, Amin; Lee, Soobum; Kazem Sadoughi, Mohammad; Hu, Chao; Kim, Young-Cheol; Seo, Jong-Ho

2017-10-01

Energy harvesting (EH) technologies to power small sized electronic devices are attracting great attention. Wasted energy in a vehicle’s rotating tire has a great potential to enable self-powered tire pressure monitoring sensors (TPMS). Piezoelectric type energy harvesters can be used to collect vibrational energy and power such systems. Due to the presence of harsh acceleration in a rotating tire, a design tradeoff needs to be studied to prolong the harvester’s fatigue life as well as to ensure sufficient power generation. However, the design by traditional deterministic design optimization (DDO) does not show reliable performance due to the lack of consideration of various uncertainty factors (e.g., manufacturing tolerances, material properties, and loading conditions). In this study, we address a new EH design formulation that considers the uncertainty in car speed, dimensional tolerances and material properties, and solve this design problem using reliability-based design optimization (RBDO). The RBDO problem is formulated to maximize compactness and minimize weight of a TPMS harvester while satisfying power and durability requirements. A transient analysis has been done to measure the time varying response of EH such as power generation, dynamic strain, and stress. A conservative design formulation is proposed to consider the expected power from varied speed and stress at higher speed. When compared to the DDO, the RBDO results show that the reliability of EH is increased significantly by scarifying the objective function. Finally, experimental test has been conducted to demonstrate the merits of RBDO design over DDO.

Cultured Cortical Neurons Can Perform Blind Source Separation According to the Free-Energy Principle

Science.gov (United States)

Isomura, Takuya; Kotani, Kiyoshi; Jimbo, Yasuhiko

2015-01-01

Blind source separation is the computation underlying the cocktail party effect––a partygoer can distinguish a particular talker’s voice from the ambient noise. Early studies indicated that the brain might use blind source separation as a signal processing strategy for sensory perception and numerous mathematical models have been proposed; however, it remains unclear how the neural networks extract particular sources from a complex mixture of inputs. We discovered that neurons in cultures of dissociated rat cortical cells could learn to represent particular sources while filtering out other signals. Specifically, the distinct classes of neurons in the culture learned to respond to the distinct sources after repeating training stimulation. Moreover, the neural network structures changed to reduce free energy, as predicted by the free-energy principle, a candidate unified theory of learning and memory, and by Jaynes’ principle of maximum entropy. This implicit learning can only be explained by some form of Hebbian plasticity. These results are the first in vitro (as opposed to in silico) demonstration of neural networks performing blind source separation, and the first formal demonstration of neuronal self-organization under the free energy principle. PMID:26690814

Cultured Cortical Neurons Can Perform Blind Source Separation According to the Free-Energy Principle.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Takuya Isomura

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Blind source separation is the computation underlying the cocktail party effect--a partygoer can distinguish a particular talker's voice from the ambient noise. Early studies indicated that the brain might use blind source separation as a signal processing strategy for sensory perception and numerous mathematical models have been proposed; however, it remains unclear how the neural networks extract particular sources from a complex mixture of inputs. We discovered that neurons in cultures of dissociated rat cortical cells could learn to represent particular sources while filtering out other signals. Specifically, the distinct classes of neurons in the culture learned to respond to the distinct sources after repeating training stimulation. Moreover, the neural network structures changed to reduce free energy, as predicted by the free-energy principle, a candidate unified theory of learning and memory, and by Jaynes' principle of maximum entropy. This implicit learning can only be explained by some form of Hebbian plasticity. These results are the first in vitro (as opposed to in silico demonstration of neural networks performing blind source separation, and the first formal demonstration of neuronal self-organization under the free energy principle.

Expert energy management of a micro-grid considering wind energy uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Motevasel, Mehdi; Seifi, Ali Reza

2014-01-01

Highlights: • In this paper an expert energy management system (EEMS) is presented. • A power forecasting module for wind generation capacity is presented. • The objective functions that must be minimized are operating cost and net emission. • A smart energy storage system (EES) for electrochemical batteries is presented. • A new modified Bacterial Foraging Optimization (MBFO) algorithm is presented. - Abstract: Recently, the use of wind generation has rapidly increased in micro-grids. Due to the fluctuation of wind power, it is difficult to schedule wind turbines (WTs) with other distributed energy resources (DERs). In this paper, we propose an expert energy management system (EEMS) for optimal operation of WTs and other DERs in an interconnected micro-grid. The main purpose of the proposed EEMS is to find the optimal set points of DERs and storage devices, in such a way that the total operation cost and the net emission are simultaneously minimized. The EEMS consists of wind power forecasting module, smart energy storage system (ESS) module and optimization module. For optimal scheduling of WTs, the power forecasting module determines the possible available capacity of wind generation in the micro-grid. To do this, first, an artificial neural network (ANN) is used to forecast wind speed. Then, the obtaining results are used considering forecasting uncertainty by the probabilistic concept of confidence interval. To reduce the fluctuations of wind power generation and improve the micro-grid performances, a smart energy storage system (ESS) module is used. For optimal management of the ESS, the comprehensive mathematical model with practical constraints is extracted. Finally, an efficient modified Bacterial Foraging Optimization (MBFO) module is proposed to solve the multi-objective problem. An interactive fuzzy satisfying method is also used to simulate the trade-off between the conflicting objectives (cost and emission). To evaluate the proposed

Using cooperative control to manage uncertainties for Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (ATES)

Science.gov (United States)

Jaxa-Rozen, Marc; Rostampour, Vahab; Kwakkel, Jan; Bloemendal, Martin

2017-04-01

Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (ATES) technology can lead to major reductions in energy demand for heating and cooling in buildings. ATES systems rely on shallow aquifers to seasonally store thermal energy and have become popular in the Netherlands, where a combination of easily accessible aquifers and strict energy regulations makes the technology especially relevant. However, this rapid adoption has made their management in dense urban areas more challenging. For instance, thermal interferences between neighboring systems can degrade storage efficiency. Policies for the permitting and spatial layout of ATES thus tend to be conservative to ensure the performance of individual systems, but this limits the space available for new systems - leading to a trade-off between individual system performance, and the overall energy savings obtained from ATES in a given area. Furthermore, recent studies show that operational uncertainties contribute to poor outcomes under current planning practices; systems in the Netherlands typically use less than half of their permitted water volume. This further reduces energy savings compared to expectations and also leads to an over-allocation of subsurface space. In this context, this work investigates the potential of a more flexible approach for ATES planning and operation, under which neighboring systems coordinate their operation. This is illustrated with a three-building idealized case, using a model predictive control approach for two control schemes: a decoupled formulation, and a centralized scheme that aims to avoid interferences between neighboring systems (assuming perfect information exchange). These control schemes are compared across a range of scenarios for spatial layout, building energy demand, and climate, using a coupled agent-based/geohydrological simulation. The simulation indicates that centralized operation could significantly improve the spatial layout efficiency of ATES systems, by allowing systems to be placed

Sustainable energy conversion for electricity and coproducts principles, technologies, and equipment

CERN Document Server

Rao, Ashok

2015-01-01

Provides an introduction to energy systems going on to describe various forms of energy sources Provides a comprehensive and a fundamental approach to the study of sustainable fuel conversion for the generation of electricity and for coproducing synthetic fuels and chemicals Covers the underlying principles of physics and their application to engineering including thermodynamics of combustion and power cycles, fluid flow, heat transfer, and mass transfer Details the coproduction of fuels and chemicals including key equipment used in synthesis and specific examples of coproduction in integrated

Uncertainty propagation in life cycle assessment of biodiesel versus diesel: global warming and non-renewable energy.

Science.gov (United States)

Hong, Jinglan

2012-06-01

Uncertainty information is essential for the proper use of life cycle assessment and environmental assessments in decision making. To investigate the uncertainties of biodiesel and determine the level of confidence in the assertion that biodiesel is more environmentally friendly than diesel, an explicit analytical approach based on the Taylor series expansion for lognormal distribution was applied in the present study. A biodiesel case study demonstrates the probability that biodiesel has a lower global warming and non-renewable energy score than diesel, that is 92.3% and 93.1%, respectively. The results indicate the level of confidence in the assertion that biodiesel is more environmentally friendly than diesel based on the global warming and non-renewable energy scores. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses of unsaturated flow travel time in the CHnz unit of Yucca Mountain, Nevada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nichols, W.E.; Freshley, M.D.

1991-10-01

This report documents the results of sensitivity and uncertainty analyses conducted to improve understanding of unsaturated zone ground-water travel time distribution at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The US Department of Energy (DOE) is currently performing detailed studies at Yucca Mountain to determine its suitability as a host for a geologic repository for the containment of high-level nuclear wastes. As part of these studies, DOE is conducting a series of Performance Assessment Calculational Exercises, referred to as the PACE problems. The work documented in this report represents a part of the PACE-90 problems that addresses the effects of natural barriers of the site that will stop or impede the long-term movement of radionuclides from the potential repository to the accessible environment. In particular, analyses described in this report were designed to investigate the sensitivity of the ground-water travel time distribution to different input parameters and the impact of uncertainty associated with those input parameters. Five input parameters were investigated in this study: recharge rate, saturated hydraulic conductivity, matrix porosity, and two curve-fitting parameters used for the van Genuchten relations to quantify the unsaturated moisture-retention and hydraulic characteristics of the matrix. 23 refs., 20 figs., 10 tabs

Uncertainty enabled Sensor Observation Services

Science.gov (United States)

Cornford, Dan; Williams, Matthew; Bastin, Lucy

2010-05-01

Almost all observations of reality are contaminated with errors, which introduce uncertainties into the actual observation result. Such uncertainty is often held to be a data quality issue, and quantification of this uncertainty is essential for the principled exploitation of the observations. Many existing systems treat data quality in a relatively ad-hoc manner, however if the observation uncertainty is a reliable estimate of the error on the observation with respect to reality then knowledge of this uncertainty enables optimal exploitation of the observations in further processes, or decision making. We would argue that the most natural formalism for expressing uncertainty is Bayesian probability theory. In this work we show how the Open Geospatial Consortium Sensor Observation Service can be implemented to enable the support of explicit uncertainty about observations. We show how the UncertML candidate standard is used to provide a rich and flexible representation of uncertainty in this context. We illustrate this on a data set of user contributed weather data where the INTAMAP interpolation Web Processing Service is used to help estimate the uncertainty on the observations of unknown quality, using observations with known uncertainty properties. We then go on to discuss the implications of uncertainty for a range of existing Open Geospatial Consortium standards including SWE common and Observations and Measurements. We discuss the difficult decisions in the design of the UncertML schema and its relation and usage within existing standards and show various options. We conclude with some indications of the likely future directions for UncertML in the context of Open Geospatial Consortium services.

Life Cycle Energy and CO2 Emission Optimization for Biofuel Supply Chain Planning under Uncertainties

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ren, Jingzheng; An, Da; Liang, Hanwei

2016-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to develop a model for the decision-makers/stakeholders to design biofuel supply chain under uncertainties. Life cycle energy and CO2 emission of biofuel supply chain are employed as the objective functions, multiple feedstocks, multiple transportation modes, multiple...... sites for building biofuel plants, multiple technologies for biofuel production, and multiple markets for biofuel distribution are considered, and the amount of feedstocks in agricultural system, transportation capacities, yields of crops, and market demands are considered as uncertainty variables...... in this study. A bi-objective interval mix integer programming model has been developed for biofuel supply chain design under uncertainties, and the bio-objective interval programming method has been developed to solve this model. An illustrative case of a multiple-feedstock-bioethanol system has been studied...