WorldWideScience

Sample records for energy penetration scenario

  1. Environmental impacts of high penetration renewable energy scenarios for Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berrill, Peter; Arvesen, Anders; Scholz, Yvonne; Gils, Hans Christian; Hertwich, Edgar G.

    2016-01-01

    The prospect of irreversible environmental alterations and an increasingly volatile climate pressurises societies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, thereby mitigating climate change impacts. As global electricity demand continues to grow, particularly if considering a future with increased electrification of heat and transport sectors, the imperative to decarbonise our electricity supply becomes more urgent. This letter implements outputs of a detailed power system optimisation model into a prospective life cycle analysis framework in order to present a life cycle analysis of 44 electricity scenarios for Europe in 2050, including analyses of systems based largely on low-carbon fossil energy options (natural gas, and coal with carbon capture and storage (CCS)) as well as systems with high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) (wind and solar). VRE curtailments and impacts caused by extra energy storage and transmission capabilities necessary in systems based on VRE are taken into account. The results show that systems based largely on VRE perform much better regarding climate change and other impact categories than the investigated systems based on fossil fuels. The climate change impacts from Europe for the year 2050 in a scenario using primarily natural gas are 1400 Tg CO2-eq while in a scenario using mostly coal with CCS the impacts are 480 Tg CO2-eq. Systems based on renewables with an even mix of wind and solar capacity generate impacts of 120-140 Tg CO2-eq. Impacts arising as a result of wind and solar variability do not significantly compromise the climate benefits of utilising these energy resources. VRE systems require more infrastructure leading to much larger mineral resource depletion impacts than fossil fuel systems, and greater land occupation impacts than systems based on natural gas. Emissions and resource requirements from wind power are smaller than from solar power.

  2. Environmental impacts of high penetration renewable energy scenarios for Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berrill, Peter; Arvesen, Anders; Hertwich, Edgar G; Scholz, Yvonne; Gils, Hans Christian

    2016-01-01

    The prospect of irreversible environmental alterations and an increasingly volatile climate pressurises societies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, thereby mitigating climate change impacts. As global electricity demand continues to grow, particularly if considering a future with increased electrification of heat and transport sectors, the imperative to decarbonise our electricity supply becomes more urgent. This letter implements outputs of a detailed power system optimisation model into a prospective life cycle analysis framework in order to present a life cycle analysis of 44 electricity scenarios for Europe in 2050, including analyses of systems based largely on low-carbon fossil energy options (natural gas, and coal with carbon capture and storage (CCS)) as well as systems with high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) (wind and solar). VRE curtailments and impacts caused by extra energy storage and transmission capabilities necessary in systems based on VRE are taken into account. The results show that systems based largely on VRE perform much better regarding climate change and other impact categories than the investigated systems based on fossil fuels. The climate change impacts from Europe for the year 2050 in a scenario using primarily natural gas are 1400 Tg CO 2 -eq while in a scenario using mostly coal with CCS the impacts are 480 Tg CO 2 -eq. Systems based on renewables with an even mix of wind and solar capacity generate impacts of 120–140 Tg CO 2 -eq. Impacts arising as a result of wind and solar variability do not significantly compromise the climate benefits of utilising these energy resources. VRE systems require more infrastructure leading to much larger mineral resource depletion impacts than fossil fuel systems, and greater land occupation impacts than systems based on natural gas. Emissions and resource requirements from wind power are smaller than from solar power. (letter)

  3. Grid of the Future: Quantification of Benefits from Flexible Energy Resources in Scenarios With Extra-High Penetration of Renewable Energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bebic, Jovan [General Electric International, Inc., Schenectady, NY (United States). Energy Consulting; Hinkle, Gene [General Electric International, Inc., Schenectady, NY (United States). Energy Consulting; Matic, Slobodan [General Electric International, Inc., Schenectady, NY (United States). Energy Consulting; Schmitt, William [General Electric International, Inc., Schenectady, NY (United States). Energy Consulting

    2015-01-15

    The main objective of this study is to quantify the entitlement for system benefits attainable by pervasive application of flexible energy resources in scenarios with extra-high penetration of renewable energy. The quantified benefits include savings in thermal energy and reduction of CO2 emissions. Both are primarily a result of displacement of conventional thermal generation by renewable energy production, but there are secondary improvements that arise from lowering operating reserves, removing transmission constraints, and by partially removing energy-delivery losses due to energy production by distributed solar. The flexible energy resources in the context of this study include energy storage and adjustable loads. The flexibility of both was constrained to a time horizon of one day. In case of energy storage this means that the state of charge is restored to the starting value at the end of each day, while for load this means that the daily energy consumed is maintained constant. The extra-high penetration of renewable energy in the context of this study means the level of penetration resulting in significant number of hours where instantaneous power output from renewable resources added to the power output from baseload nuclear fleet surpasses the instantaneous power consumption by the load.

  4. High Penetration of Renewable Energy in the Transportation Sector: Scenarios, Barriers, and Enablers; Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vimmerstedt, L.; Brown, A.; Heath, G.; Mai, T.; Ruth, M.; Melaina, M.; Simpkins, T.; Steward, D.; Warner, E.; Bertram, K.; Plotkin, S.; Patel, D.; Stephens, T.; Vyas, A.

    2012-06-01

    Transportation accounts for 71% of U.S. petroleum use and 33% of its greenhouse gases emissions. Pathways toward reduced greenhouse gas emissions and petroleum dependence in the transportation sector have been analyzed in considerable detail, but with some limitations. To add to this knowledge, the U.S. Department of Energy has launched a study focused on underexplored greenhouse-gas-abatement and oil-savings opportunities related to transportation. This Transportation Energy Futures study analyzes specific issues and associated key questions to strengthen the existing knowledge base and help cultivate partnerships among federal agencies, state and local governments, and industry.

  5. Renewable Energy and Efficiency Modeling Analysis Partnership: An Analysis of How Different Energy Models Addressed a Common High Renewable Energy Penetration Scenario in 2025

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blair, N.; Jenkin, T.; Milford, J.; Short, W.; Sullivan, P.; Evans, D.; Lieberman, E.; Goldstein, G.; Wright, E.; Jayaraman, K.; Venkatech, B.; Kleiman, G.; Namovicz, C.; Smith, B.; Palmer, K.; Wiser, R.; Wood, F.

    2009-09-30

    and/or different answers in response to a set of focused energy-related questions. The focus was on understanding reasons for model differences, not on policy implications, even though a policy of high renewable penetration was used for the analysis. A group process was used to identify the potential question (or questions) to be addressed through the project. In late 2006, increasing renewable energy penetration in the electricity sector was chosen from among several options as the general policy to model. From this framework, the analysts chose a renewable portfolio standard (RPS) as the way to implement the required renewable energy market penetration in the models. An RPS was chosen because it was (i) of interest and represented the group's consensus choice, and (ii) tractable and not too burdensome for the modelers. Because the modelers and analysts were largely using their own resources, it was important to consider the degree of effort required. In fact, several of the modelers who started this process had to discontinue participation because of other demands on their time. Federal and state RPS policy is an area of active political interest and debate. Recognizing this, participants used this exercise to gain insight into energy model structure and performance. The results are not intended to provide any particular insight into policy design or be used for policy advocacy, and participants are not expected to form a policy stance based on the outcomes of the modeling. The goals of this REMAP project - in terms of the main topic of renewable penetration - were to: (1) Compare models and understand why they may give different results to the same question, (2) Improve the rigor and consistency of assumptions used across models, and (3) Evaluate the ability of models to measure the impacts of high renewable-penetration scenarios.

  6. A Scenario-Based Approach for Energy Storage Capacity Determination in LV Grids with High PV Penetration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hashemi Toghroljerdi, Seyedmostafa; Østergaard, Jacob; Yang, Guangya

    2014-01-01

    In this paper a new method is proposed to determine the minimum energy storage required to be installed at different locations of a low voltage (LV) grid in order to prevent the overvoltage due to high residential photovoltaic (PV) penetration. The method is based on the voltage sensitivity...... with different occurrence probabilities without involving the time-series studies problems. The proposed method is capable of modeling output power of PV panels with different orientations as well as different electric vehicle (EV) charging patterns....

  7. Market penetration scenarios for fuel cell vehicles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomas, C.E.; James, B.D.; Lomax, F.D. Jr. [Directed Technologies, Inc., Arlington, VA (United States)

    1997-12-31

    Fuel cell vehicles may create the first mass market for hydrogen as an energy carrier. Directed Technologies, Inc., working with the US Department of Energy hydrogen systems analysis team, has developed a time-dependent computer market penetration model. This model estimates the number of fuel cell vehicles that would be purchased over time as a function of their cost and the cost of hydrogen relative to the costs of competing vehicles and fuels. The model then calculates the return on investment for fuel cell vehicle manufacturers and hydrogen fuel suppliers. The model also projects the benefit/cost ratio for government--the ratio of societal benefits such as reduced oil consumption, reduced urban air pollution and reduced greenhouse gas emissions to the government cost for assisting the development of hydrogen energy and fuel cell vehicle technologies. The purpose of this model is to assist industry and government in choosing the best investment strategies to achieve significant return on investment and to maximize benefit/cost ratios. The model can illustrate trends and highlight the sensitivity of market penetration to various parameters such as fuel cell efficiency, cost, weight, and hydrogen cost. It can also illustrate the potential benefits of successful R and D and early demonstration projects. Results will be shown comparing the market penetration and return on investment estimates for direct hydrogen fuel cell vehicles compared to fuel cell vehicles with onboard fuel processors including methanol steam reformers and gasoline partial oxidation systems. Other alternative fueled vehicles including natural gas hybrids, direct injection diesels and hydrogen-powered internal combustion hybrid vehicles will also be analyzed.

  8. Interpreting energy scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iyer, Gokul; Edmonds, James

    2018-05-01

    Quantitative scenarios from energy-economic models inform decision-making about uncertain futures. Now, research shows the different ways these scenarios are subsequently used by users not involved in their initial development. In the absence of clear guidance from modellers, users may place too much or too little confidence in scenario assumptions and results.

  9. Renewable Energy and Efficiency Modeling Analysis Partnership (REMAP): An Analysis of How Different Energy Models Addressed a Common High Renewable Energy Penetration Scenario in 2025

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blair, N.; Jenkin, T.; Milford, J.; Short, W.; Sullivan, P.; Evans, D.; Lieberman, E.; Goldstein, G.; Wright, E.; Jayaraman, K. R.; Venkatesh, B.; Kleiman, G.; Namovicz, C.; Smith, B.; Palmer, K.; Wiser, R.; Wood, F.

    2009-09-01

    Energy system modeling can be intentionally or unintentionally misused by decision-makers. This report describes how both can be minimized through careful use of models and thorough understanding of their underlying approaches and assumptions. The analysis summarized here assesses the impact that model and data choices have on forecasting energy systems by comparing seven different electric-sector models. This analysis was coordinated by the Renewable Energy and Efficiency Modeling Analysis Partnership (REMAP), a collaboration among governmental, academic, and nongovernmental participants.

  10. Assessing high wind energy penetration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tande, J.O.

    1995-01-01

    In order to convincingly promote installing wind power capacity as a substantial part of the energy supply system, a set of careful analyses must be undertaken. This paper applies a case study concentrated on assessing the cost/benefit of high wind energy penetration. The case study considers...... expanding the grid connected wind power capacity in Praia, the capital of Cape Verde. The currently installed 1 MW of wind power is estimated to supply close to 10% of the electric energy consumption in 1996. Increasing the wind energy penetration to a higher level is considered viable as the project...... with the existing wind power, supply over 30% of the electric consumption in 1996. Applying the recommended practices for estimating the cost of wind energy, the life-cycle cost of this 2.4 MW investment is estimated at a 7% discount rate and a 20 year lifetime to 0.26 DKK/kW h....

  11. Assessing high wind energy penetration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tande, J.O.

    1995-01-01

    In order to convincingly promote installing wind power capacity as a substantial part of the energy supply system, a set of careful analyses must be undertaken. This paper applies a case study concentrated on assessing the cost/benefit of high wind energy penetration. The case study considers expanding the grid connected wind power capacity in Praia, the capital of Cape Verde. The currently installed 1 MW of wind power is estimated to supply close to 10% of the electric energy consumption in 1996. Increasing the wind energy penetration to a higher level is considered viable as the project settings are close to ideal, including a very capable national utility company, Electra, a conventional power supply system based on imported heavy fuel and gas oil, and favourable wind conditions with an estimated annual average of 9.3 m/s at the hub height of the wind turbines. With the applied case study assumptions, simulations with WINSYS over the lifetime of the assessed wind power investment show that investments up to 4.2 MW are economically viable. The economic optimum is found at 2.4 MW reaching an internal rate of return of almost 8% p.a. This 2.4 MW of wind power would, together with the existing wind power, supply over 30% of the electric consumption in 1996. Applying the recommended practices for estimating the cost of wind energy, the life-cycle cost of this 2.4 MW investment is estimated at a 7% discount rate and a 20 year lifetime to 0.26 DKK/kW h. (Author)

  12. Global geothermal energy scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, S.K.; Singh, A.; Pandey, G.N.

    1993-01-01

    To resolve the energy crisis efforts have been made in exploring and utilizing nonconventional energy resources since last few decades. Geothermal energy is one such energy resource. Fossil fuels are the earth's energy capital like money deposited in bank years ago. The energy to build this energy came mainly from the sun. Steam geysers and hot water springs are other manifestations of geothermal energy. Most of the 17 countries that today harness geothermal energy have simply tapped such resources where they occur. (author). 8 refs., 4 tabs., 1 fig

  13. Italian energy scenarios comparative evaluations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Contaldi, Mario

    2005-01-01

    This paper reviews some representative scenarios of the evolution of the Italian primary energy consumption, updated recently. After an overview of the main macroeconomics assumptions the scenario results are cross checked at sectorial level, with a brief discussion of the underlining data and energy intensity trends. The emissions of CO 2 , SO 2 and NO x resulting from the considered scenarios are also reported and discussed [it

  14. Italian energy scenarios: Markal model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gracceva, Francesco

    2005-01-01

    Energy scenarios carried out through formal models comply with scientific criteria such as internal coherence and transparency. Besides, Markal methodology allows a good understanding of the complex nature of the energy system. The business-as-usual scenario carried out through the Markal-Italy model shows that structural changes occurring in end-use sectors will continue to drive up energy consumption, in spite of the slow economic growth and the quite high energy prices [it

  15. Energy scenarios for New Zealand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harris, G. S.; Ellis, M. J.; Scott, G. C.; Wood, J. R.

    1977-10-15

    Three energy scenarios have been formulated for New Zealand. They concentrate on those aspects of society which have a direct bearing on energy, emphasizing three important issues: major shifts in society's values in relation to material wealth, pollution, and resources. The scenarios make assumptions that certain overall social conditions would prevail so that all decisions of government, the private sector, and individuals would be governed by the requirement to conform to the scenario theme in a way not possible under existing social and political conditions. The 3 scenarios are known as Continuation, Low New Zealand Pollution, and Limited Growth.

  16. Future nuclear energy scenarios for Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roelofs, F.; Van Heek, A.

    2010-01-01

    Nuclear energy is back on the agenda worldwide. In order to prepare for the next decades and to set priorities in nuclear R and D and investment, market share scenarios are evaluated. This allows to identify the triggers which influence the market penetration of future nuclear reactor technologies. To this purpose, scenarios for a future nuclear reactor park in Europe have been analysed applying an integrated dynamic process modelling technique. Various market share scenarios for nuclear energy are derived including sub-variants with regard to the intra-nuclear options taken, e.g. introduction date of Gen-III (i.e. EPR) and Gen-IV (i.e. SCWR, HTR, FR) reactors, level of reprocessing, and so forth. The assessment was undertaken using the DANESS code which allows to provide a complete picture of mass-flow and economics of the various nuclear energy system scenarios. The analyses show that the future European nuclear park will exist of combinations of Gen-III and Gen-IV reactors. This mix will always consist of a set of reactor types each having its specific strengths. Furthermore, the analyses highlight the triggers influencing the choice between different nuclear energy deployment scenarios. In addition, a dynamic assessment is made with regard to manpower requirements for the construction of a future nuclear fleet in the different scenarios. (authors)

  17. Energy scenarios: a prospective outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salomon, Thierry; Claustre, Raphael; Charru, Madeleine; Sukov, Stephane; Marignac, Yves; Fink, Meike; Bibas, Ruben; Le Saux, Gildas

    2011-01-01

    A set of articles discusses the use of energy scenarios: how useful they can be to describe a possible future and even to gather the involved actors, how they have been used in France in the past (for planning or prediction purposes, with sometimes some over-assessed or contradictory results, without considering any decline of nuclear energy, or by setting an impossible equation in the case of the Grenelle de l'Environnement), how the scenario framework impacts its content (depending on the approach type: standard, optimization, bottom-up, top-down, or hybrid). It also discusses the issue of choice of hypotheses on growth-based and de-growth-based scenarios, outlines how energy saving is a key for a sustainable evolution. Two German scenarios regarding electricity production (centralisation or decentralisation) and French regional scenarios for Nord-Pas-de-Calais are then briefly discussed

  18. Global energy context: future scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beretta, Gian Paolo

    2006-01-01

    After a brief analysis of the history of global energy consumption, this paper discusses a plausible scenario of energy needs and related carbon emissions for the rest of the century. The global outlook and the probable evolution of several factors that impact on energy policy considerations - even on the local scale - demonstrate the great complexity and planetary dimension of the problems, as well as the almost certain sterility of out-of-context domestic energy-policy measures [it

  19. Scenarios of future energy intensities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    In this chapter, the authors present scenarios of potential change in energy intensities in the OECD countries and in the Soviet Union. These scenarios are meant to illustrate how intensities might evolve over the next 20 years given different conditions with respect to energy prices, energy-efficiency policies, and other key factors. Changes in intensity will also be affected by the rates of growth and stock turnover in each sector. They have not tried to forecast how activity levels and structure will evolve. However, the OECD scenarios assume a world in which GDP averages growth in the 2-3%/year range, with some differences among countries. For the Soviet Union, the degree and pace of intensity decline will be highly dependent on the success of the transition to a market economy; each scenario explicitly envisions a different degree of success. They have not constructed comparable scenarios for the developing countries. The scenarios presented in this chapter do not predict what will happen in the future. They believe, however, that they illustrate a plausible set of outcomes if energy prices, policies, programs, and other factors evolve as described in each case. With higher energy prices and vigorous policies and programs, intensities in the OECD countries in 2010 could be nearly 50% less on average than the level where trends seem to be point. In the former Soviet Union, a combination of rapid, successful economic reform and extra effort to improve energy efficiency might result in average intensity being nearly 40% less than in a slow reform case. And in the LDCs, a mixture of sound policies, programs, and energy pricing reform could also lead to intensities being far lower than they would be otherwise. 8 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab

  20. Market penetration rates of new energy technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lund, Peter

    2006-01-01

    The market penetration rates of 11 different new energy technologies were studied covering energy production and end-use technologies. The penetration rates were determined by fitting observed market data to an epidemical diffusion model. The analyses show that the exponential penetration rates of new energy technologies may vary from 4 up to over 40%/yr. The corresponding take-over times from a 1% to 50% share of the estimated market potential may vary from less than 10 to 70 years. The lower rate is often associated with larger energy impacts. Short take-over times less than 25 years seem to be mainly associated with end-use technologies. Public policies and subsides have an important effect on the penetration. Some technologies penetrate fast without major support explained by technology maturity and competitive prices, e.g. compact fluorescent lamps show a 24.2%/yr growth rate globally. The penetration rates determined exhibit some uncertainty as penetration has not always proceeded close to saturation. The study indicates a decreasing penetration rate with increasing time or market share. If the market history is short, a temporally decreasing functional form for the penetration rate coefficient could be used to anticipate the probable behavior

  1. Shell energy scenarios to 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    Shell developed two scenarios that describe alternative ways the energy future may develop. In the first scenario (Scramble) policymakers pay little attention to more efficient energy use until supplies are tight. Likewise, greenhouse gas emissions are not seriously addressed until there are major climate shocks. In the second scenario (Blueprints) growing local actions begin to address the challenges of economic development, energy security and environmental pollution. A price is applied to a critical mass of emissions giving a huge stimulus to the development of clean energy technologies, such as carbon dioxide capture and storage, and energy efficiency measures. The result is far lower carbon dioxide emissions. Both these scenarios can help Shell to test their strategy against a range of possible developments over the long-term. However, according to Shell, the Blueprints' outcomes offer the best hope for a sustainable future, whether or not they arise exactly in the way described. However, with the right combination of policy, technology and commitment from governments, industry and society globally, Shell believes it can be realized. But achieving the targets will not be easy, and time is short. Clear thinking, huge investment, and effective leadership are required

  2. Comparing long term energy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cumo, M.; Simbolotti, G.

    2001-01-01

    Major projection studies by international organizations and senior analysts have been compared with reference to individual key parameters (population, energy demand/supply, resources, technology, emissions and global warming) to understand trends and implications of the different scenarios. Then, looking at the long term (i.e., 2050 and beyond), parameters and trends have been compared together to understand and quantify whether and when possible crisis or market turbulence might occur due to shortage of resources or environmental problems [it

  3. Opportunities for high wind energy penetration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tande, J.O.; Hansen, J.C.

    1997-01-01

    Wind power is today a mature technology, which at windy locations, is economically competitive to conventional power generation technologies. This and growing global environmental concerns have led governments to encourage and plan for wind energy development, a typical aim being 10% of electricity...... consumption. The successful operation of the three major power systems of Cape Verde, with a total wind energy penetration of about 15% since December 1994, demonstrates that power systems can be operated with high penetration of wind energy by adding simple control and monitoring systems only. Thorough...... analyses conclude that expanding to even above 15% wind energy penetration in the Cape Verde power systems is economical. Worldwide, numerous locations with favorable wind conditions and power systems similar to the Capeverdean provide good opportunities for installing wind farms and achieving high wind...

  4. Energy scenarios for Colombia: process and content

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Ricardo A. [National Univ. of Colombia, Escuela de Geosciencias y Medio Ambiente, Medellin (Colombia); Vesga, Daniel R.A. [Unidad de Planeacion Minero Energetica, Bogota (Colombia); Cadena, Angela I. [Los Andes Univ., School of Engineering, Bogota (Colombia); Boman, Ulf [Kairos Future AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Larsen, Erik [Cass Business School, London (United Kingdom); Dyner, Isaac [Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Energy Inst., Medellin (Colombia)

    2005-02-01

    This paper presents the approach undertaken, and the four energy scenarios that have been developed, to support long term energy policy in Colombia. The scenarios were constructed with emphasis on maximum interaction between stakeholders in the Colombian energy sector. The process directly involved over 120 people. The scenarios were developed as strategic support tools for the Energy and Mining Planning Unit (UPME), which is the Colombian institution in charge of developing the country's energy strategies and National Energy Policy. The methodology employed is presented, followed by a detailed description of each of the four scenarios. (Author)

  5. Market penetration of new energy technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Packey, D.J.

    1993-02-01

    This report examines the characteristics, advantages, disadvantages, and, for some, the mathematical formulas of forecasting methods that can be used to forecast the market penetration of renewable energy technologies. Among the methods studied are subjective estimation, market surveys, historical analogy models, cost models, diffusion models, time-series models, and econometric models. Some of these forecasting methods are more effective than others at different developmental stages of new technologies.

  6. Comparison of future energy scenarios for Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kwon, Pil Seok; Østergaard, Poul Alberg

    2012-01-01

    Scenario-making is becoming an important tool in energy policy making and energy systems analyses. This article probes into the making of scenarios for Denmark by presenting a comparison of three future scenarios which narrate 100% renewable energy system for Denmark in 2050; IDA 2050, Climate...... Commission 2050, and CEESA (Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis). Generally, although with minor differences, the scenarios suggest the same technological solutions for the future such as expansion of biomass usage and wind power capacity, integration of transport sector into the other energy...

  7. The Greenpeace 2013 scenario for energy transition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cormier, Cyrille; Teske, Sven

    2013-01-01

    After a synthesis of the Greenpeace scenario for energy transition, this report presents the French current energy landscape: structure of the energy system, greenhouse gas emissions and nuclear risks, main social and economic challenges, and search for a political ambition (from the Grenelle de l'Environnement to the current debate on energy). Then, after having outlined that energy transition must be decided now, the report presents the scenario hypotheses: studies used to develop the scenario, macro-economic and technical-economic hypotheses. The scenario is then presented in terms of possible trajectory, of energy demand (global evolution per sector), of energy production (electricity, heat, mobility), and of CO 2 assessment and nuclear wastes. Scenarios are compared in social and economic terms, more particularly in terms of investments in electricity and heat production systems, of electricity production costs and electricity bill, of energy independence, and of jobs in the electricity and heat sectors

  8. Outlook and application analysis of energy storage in power system with high renewable energy penetration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Junshu; Zhang, Fuqiang

    2018-02-01

    To realize low-emission and low-carbon energy production and consumption, large-scale development and utilization of renewable energy has been put into practice in China. And it has been recognized that power system of future high renewable energy shares can operate more reliably with the participation of energy storage. Considering the significant role of storage playing in the future power system, this paper focuses on the application of energy storage with high renewable energy penetration. Firstly, two application modes are given, including demand side application mode and centralized renewable energy farm application mode. Afterwards, a high renewable energy penetration scenario of northwest region in China is designed, and its production simulation with application of energy storage in 2050 has been calculated and analysed. Finally, a development path and outlook of energy storage is given.

  9. Market penetration of energy supply technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Condap, R. J.

    1980-03-01

    Techniques to incorporate the concepts of profit-induced growth and risk aversion into policy-oriented optimization models of the domestic energy sector are examined. After reviewing the pertinent market penetration literature, simple mathematical programs in which the introduction of new energy technologies is constrained primarily by the reinvestment of profits are formulated. The main results involve the convergence behavior of technology production levels under various assumptions about the form of the energy demand function. Next, profitability growth constraints are embedded in a full-scale model of U.S. energy-economy interactions. A rapidly convergent algorithm is developed to utilize optimal shadow prices in the computation of profitability for individual technologies. Allowance is made for additional policy variables such as government funding and taxation. The result is an optimal deployment schedule for current and future energy technologies which is consistent with the sector's ability to finance capacity expansion.

  10. ANCRE scenarios for energy transition. Report 2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alazard-Toux, Nathalie; Des Courtils, Nicolas; Hache, Emmanuel; Liegeard, Alban; Lorne, Daphne; Duplan, Jean-Luc; Kalaydjian, Francois; Heintze, Eric; Tilagone, Richard; Henriot, Stephane; Forti, Laurent; Barthelemy, Pascal; Merlen, Elisabeth; Criqui, Patrick; Mathy, Sandrine; Menanteau, Philippe; Devezeaux De Lavergne, Jean-Guy; Avril, Sophie; Cavata, Christian; Le Duigou, Alain; Le Net, Elisabeth; Marcucci-Demeure, Jeanne; Safa, Henri; Topper, Benjamin; Touboul, Francoise; Carre, Franck; Joly, Jean-Pierre; Charbit, Francoise; Mermilliod, Nicole; Mermilliod, Nicole; Le Net, Elisabeth; Teissier, Olivier; Charrue, Herve; Colonna, Paul; Legrand, Jack; Vidal, Olivier; Goffe, Bruno; Mueller, Alex; Flamant, Gilles; Allard, Francis; Most, Jean-Michel; Matarasso, Pierre; Brault, Pascal; Lemoine, Lionel; Achard, Jean-Luc; Uster, Guillaume; Delsey, Jean; Lucchese, Paul; Tadrist, Lounes; Hadjsaid, Nouredine

    2014-01-01

    This report first gives an overview of the energy system by presenting the determining factors of energy demand and of CO 2 emissions per sector (housing and office building, transport, industry, agriculture, forestry and biomass), by analysing energy systems and CO 2 emissions (energy sources, energy vectors, networks and storage, energy and CO 2 assessment for France), and by describing the guidelines of the scenarios proposed by ANCRE. The three main scenarios are characterized by a stronger sobriety, an electricity-based de-carbonation (with a variant based on nuclear and renewable energies), and diversified vectors. They are notably compared to a trend-based reference scenario. Results are discussed in terms of energy consumption (primary and final energy, consumption by the different sectors), of energy production and CO 2 emissions. Scenarios are assessed in terms of economic, environmental and societal, political and strategic criteria. Some consequences for research topics and funding are identified

  11. The influence of distributed generation penetration levels on energy markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vahl, Fabrício Peter; Rüther, Ricardo; Casarotto Filho, Nelson

    2013-01-01

    Planning of national energy policies brings new dilemmas with the introduction of distributed generators (DG). Economic theory suggests that a perfectly competitive market would lead to efficient pricing. In the absence of competition, regulators play a fundamental role in attracting reasonably priced finance in order to maintain, refurbish and increase the infrastructure and provide services at a reasonable cost. Energy market price equilibrium is mainly dependent on suppliers, generators, energy sources and demand, represented by conventional utility grid users. Its behavior is similar to that of other commodities. As generation becomes less centralized with the increasing economic viability of renewable energy sources, new suppliers are being connected to the grid. Such evolution means the transition from a monopolistic market to a broader and more open environment, with an increasing number of competitors. We make use of variational inequalities to model a hypothetical DG market in different scenarios, from monopoly, to oligopoly, to open market. Such an approach enables different equilibrium outcomes due to different DG penetration levels. Based on these findings, we argue that energy policies for such markets must be developed according to each specific stage of the grid's lifecycle. We show how energy policies and market regulations may affect such a transition, which may be catastrophic if not managed properly, and which is dependent on the energy mix. -- Highlights: •DG affects energy markets depending on technologies, penetration and infrastructure. •Energy prices vary when the market moves from centralized to several suppliers. •Variational inequalities are presented to simulate a market under such transitions. •The increase of DG penetration level may present different energy prices variation. •If technical and political issues of smart grids are not improved, markets may crash

  12. Energy scenarios for Colombia - Environmental Aspects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, Ricardo A; Vesga A, Daniel R; Boman, Ulf

    2000-01-01

    The planning unit of the Colombian ministry of energy -UPME -has done an energy scenario project for Colombia with a 20-year horizon (vision year 2020) in this project the scenario methodology was used in a systemic way involving a great number of local and international energy experts. As a result four energy scenarios were designed and in all of them the possible evolution of all energy was analyzed. In this article a description of the used methodology is presented with the developed scenarios. Also a discussion of the long-range future environmental considerations in the energy sector, taking into account the developed scenarios, is presented. Finally some conclusions and recommendations are presented

  13. A medium energy neutron deep penetration experiment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amian, W.; Cloth, P.; Druecke, V.; Filges, D.; Paul, N.; Schaal, H.

    1986-11-01

    A deep penetration experiment conducted at the Los Alamos WNR facility's Spallation Neutron Target is compared with calculations using intra-nuclear-cascade and S N -transport codes installed at KFA-IRE. In the experiment medium energy reactions induced by neutrons between 15 MeV and about 150 MeV inside a quasi infinite slab of iron have been measured using copper foil monitors. Details of the experimental procedure and the theoretical methods are described. A comparison of absolute reaction rates for both experimentally and theoretically derived reactions is given. The present knowledge of the corresponding monitor reaction cross sections is discussed. (orig.)

  14. Energy scenarios for the 21. century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lauerman, V.

    2002-01-01

    The Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) has adopted a scenario approach in developing its energy outlook to 2025. These scenarios can be used in developing strategies to optimize opportunities and avoid the dangers that often accompany the more deterministic approach to forecasting. The scenarios are not predictions, but are instead feasible outcomes for the future. They encompass 5 major areas of uncertainty for the world energy market through 2025 that impact energy demand and fuel mix. These include the economy, technology, energy policy, resource availability, and market structure. The drivers for the energy scenarios are the environment, demography, economics, culture geopolitics and technology. The paper referred to the world energy market, the OECD energy markets, the non-OECD energy markets and the FSU energy markets under 3 energy scenarios including: (1) the material world in which the new economy drives the global economy, (2) a very dark Orwellian world in which there is a rise in terrorism and a breakdown in international cooperation, and (3) a utopia in which the major powers become increasingly serious about achieving sustainable development. 22 refs., 48 figs

  15. The UFE Prospective scenarios for energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-01-01

    After an overview of the French energy consumption in 2011 (final energy consumption, distribution of CO 2 emissions related to energy consumption), this Power Point presentation proposes graphs and figures illustrating UFE's prospective scenarios for energy demand. The objective is to foresee energy demand in 2050, to study the impact of possible actions on energy demand, and to assess the impact on greenhouse gas emissions. Hypotheses relate to demographic evolution, economic growth, energy intensity evolution, energy efficiency, and use transfers. Factors of evolution of energy demand are discussed: relationship between demography and energy consumption, new uses of electricity (notably with TICs), relationship between energy intensity and economic growth. Actions on demand are discussed. The results of different scenarios of technical evolution are presented

  16. Elaborating SRES scenarios for nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McDonald, Alan; Riahi, Keywan; Rogner, Hans-Holger

    2003-01-01

    The objective of this paper is identifying mid-century economic targets for nuclear energy. The first step is to describe what the mid-century energy market might look like: the major competitors for nuclear energy, what products are in demand, how much of each, where is growth greatest, and so forth. The mechanism for systematically describing the future market is scenario building. The starting point is the scenarios in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. SRES developed four narrative story lines, each representing a different coherent set of demographic, social, economic, technological, and environmental developments. For each story line several different scenarios were developed by six international modelling teams, resulting in 40 scenarios grouped in the 4 story lines. For three of the story lines this paper uses a single marker scenario representative of central tendencies within the scenario family. For the fourth story line the authors chose the scenario that assumes that advances in non-fossil technologies - renewable, nuclear, and high-efficiency conservation technologies - make them most cost-competitive. (BA)

  17. A Proposal for a Methodology to Develop a Cyber-Attack Penetration Test Scenario Including NPPs Safety

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, In Hyo [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Son, Han Seong [Joongbu Univ., Geumsan (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Si Won [Korea Institute of Nuclear Nonproliferation and Control, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kang, Hyun Gook [Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy (United States)

    2016-10-15

    Penetration test is a method to evaluate the cyber security of NPPs; so, this approach was performed in some studies. Because they focused on vulnerability finding or test bed construction, scenario based approach was not performed. However, to test the cyber security of NPPs, a proper test scenario should be needed. Ahn et al. developed cyber-attack scenarios but those scenarios couldn't be applied in penetration test because they developed the scenarios based on past incidents of NPPs induced by cyber-attack. That is, those scenarios only covered scenarios which were happened before; so, they couldn't cover other various scenarios and couldn't reflect them into a penetration test. In this study, a method to develop a cyber-attack penetration test scenario of NPPs especially focused on safety point of view is suggested. To evaluate the cyber security of NPPs, penetration test can be a possible way. In this study, a method to develop a penetration test scenario was explained. Especially, the goal of hacker was focused on nuclear fuel integrity deterioration. So, in the methodology, Level 1 PSA results were utilized to reflect plant safety into the security. From the PSA results, basic event was post processed and possible cyber-attacks were reviewed with vulnerabilities of digital control system.

  18. A Proposal for a Methodology to Develop a Cyber-Attack Penetration Test Scenario Including NPPs Safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, In Hyo; Son, Han Seong; Kim, Si Won; Kang, Hyun Gook

    2016-01-01

    Penetration test is a method to evaluate the cyber security of NPPs; so, this approach was performed in some studies. Because they focused on vulnerability finding or test bed construction, scenario based approach was not performed. However, to test the cyber security of NPPs, a proper test scenario should be needed. Ahn et al. developed cyber-attack scenarios but those scenarios couldn't be applied in penetration test because they developed the scenarios based on past incidents of NPPs induced by cyber-attack. That is, those scenarios only covered scenarios which were happened before; so, they couldn't cover other various scenarios and couldn't reflect them into a penetration test. In this study, a method to develop a cyber-attack penetration test scenario of NPPs especially focused on safety point of view is suggested. To evaluate the cyber security of NPPs, penetration test can be a possible way. In this study, a method to develop a penetration test scenario was explained. Especially, the goal of hacker was focused on nuclear fuel integrity deterioration. So, in the methodology, Level 1 PSA results were utilized to reflect plant safety into the security. From the PSA results, basic event was post processed and possible cyber-attacks were reviewed with vulnerabilities of digital control system

  19. Analysis of long-term energy scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lemming, J.; Morthorst, P.E.

    1998-09-01

    When addressing the role of fusion energy in the 21. century, the evaluation of possible future structures in the electricity market and the energy sector as a whole, can be a useful tool. Because fusion energy still needs demonstration, commercialized fusion energy is not likely to be a reality within the next few decades. Therefore long-term scenarios are needed describing the energy markets, which fusion energy eventually will be part of. This report performs an analysis of two of the most detailed existing long-term scenarios describing possible futures of the energy system. The aim is to clarify the frames in which the future development of the global energy demand, as well as the structure of the energy system can be expected to develop towards the year 2100. (au) 19 refs.

  20. Mediterranean energy transition: 2040 scenario. Executive summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ben Jannet Allal, Houda; Guarrera, Lisa; Karbuz, Sohbet; Menichetti, Emanuela; Lescoeur, Bruno; El Agrebi, Hassen; Harrouch, Hamdi; Campana, Dominique; Greaume, Francois; Bedes, Christelle; Bolinches, Christine; Meraud, Thierry; Tappero, Denis; Bosseboeuf, Didier; Lechevin, Bruno; Abaach, Hassan; Damasiotis, Markos; Darras, Marc; Hajjaji, Mourad; Keramane, Abdenour; Khalfallah, Ezzedine; Mourtada, Adel; Osman, Nejib

    2016-06-01

    The stakes of embarking upon a Mediterranean Energy Transition is essential for countries from both shores of the Mediterranean, especially taking into account the increasing demographics (+105 million by 2040) and the fast growing energy demand in an increasingly constrained context both in terms of energy availability and environmental impacts of conventional energy sources uses. There is a huge, but yet untapped, potential for energy efficiency and renewable energy sources, especially in the South Mediterranean region. By improving energy efficiency and deploying renewables on a large scale, the Mediterranean region would reduce tensions on energy security for importing countries, improve opportunities for exporting ones and reduce energy costs and environmental damages for the whole region. Embarking on an energy transition path will also help improve social welfare in the region and contribute to job creation, among other positive externalities. OME regularly conducts prospective works to 2040, assessing the impact of prolonging current energy trends. Under this Business-As-Usual or so-called 'Conservative' Scenario the situation would evolve critically on all counts over the next 25 years: doubling of energy demand and tripling of electricity consumption, soaring infrastructure and import bills (+443 GW to be installed and doubling of the fossil-fuel imports) and a critical rise in carbon emissions (+45%). Such a scenario, based essentially on fossil fuels, would put further strain on the environment and exacerbate geopolitical tensions in the region. A change of energy trajectory is therefore necessary for all Mediterranean countries to help change current trends and to increase efforts promoting energy efficiency and renewable energies. In this context, MEDENER and OME, based on the 2030-2050 visions of ADEME and the prospective tools of OME, have decided to jointly investigate a Mediterranean Energy Transition Scenario, an ambitious scenario that

  1. Efficient renewable energy scenarios study for Victoria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Armstrong, Graham

    1991-01-01

    This study examines the possible evolution of Victorian energy markets over the 1998-2030 period from technical, economic and environmental perspectives. The focus is on the technical and economic potential over the study period for renewable energy and energy efficiency to increase their share of energy markets, through their economic competitiveness with the non-renewables of oil, gas and fossil fulled electricity. The study identifies a range of energy options that have a lower impact on carbon dioxide emissions that current projections for the Victorian energy sector, together with the savings in energy, dollars and carbon dioxide emissions. In addition the macroeconomic implications of the energy paths are estimated. Specifically it examines a scenario (R-efficient renewable) where energy efficiency and renewable energy sources realise their estimated economic potential to displace non-renewable energy over the 1988-2030 period. In addition, a scenario (T-Toronto) is examined where energy markets are pushed somewhat harder, but again on an economic basis, so that what is called the Toronto target of reducing 1988 carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions by 20 per cent by 2005 is attained. It is concluded that over the next forty years there is substantial economic potential in Victoria for significant gains from energy efficiency in all sectors - residential, commercial, industrial and transport - and contributions from renewable energy both in those sectors and in electricity generations. 7 figs., 5 tabs

  2. Using energy scenarios to explore alternative energy pathways in California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghanadan, Rebecca; Koomey, J.G.

    2005-01-01

    This paper develops and analyzes four energy scenarios for California that are both exploratory and quantitative. The business-as-usual scenario represents a pathway guided by outcomes and expectations emerging from California's energy crisis. Three alternative scenarios represent contexts where clean energy plays a greater role in California's energy system: Split Public is driven by local and individual activities; Golden State gives importance to integrated state planning; Patriotic Energy represents a national drive to increase energy independence. Future energy consumption, composition of electricity generation, energy diversity, and greenhouse gas emissions are analyzed for each scenario through 2035. Energy savings, renewable energy, and transportation activities are identified as promising opportunities for achieving alternative energy pathways in California. A combined approach that brings together individual and community activities with state and national policies leads to the largest energy savings, increases in energy diversity, and reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Critical challenges in California's energy pathway over the next decades identified by the scenario analysis include dominance of the transportation sector, dependence on fossil fuels, emissions of greenhouse gases, accounting for electricity imports, and diversity of the electricity sector. The paper concludes with a set of policy lessons revealed from the California energy scenarios

  3. Energy scenarios for hydrogen production in Mexico

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ortega V, E.; Francois L, J. L.

    2009-10-01

    The hydrogen is a clean and very efficient fuel, its combustion does not produce gases of greenhouse effect, ozone precursors and residual acids. Also the hydrogen produced by friendly energy sources with the environment like nuclear energy could help to solve the global problems that it confronts the energy at present time. Presently work fuel cycles of hydrogen production technologies in Mexico are judged, by means of a structured methodology in the concept of sustainable development in its social, economic and environmental dimensions. The methodology is divided in three scenarios: base, Outlook 2030 and capture of CO 2 . The first scenario makes reference to cycles analysis in a current context for Mexico, the second taking in account the demand projections reported by the IAEA in its report Outlook and the third scenario, capture of CO 2 , the technologies are analyzed supposing a reduction in capture costs of 75%. Each scenario also has four cases (base, social, environmental and economic) by means of which the cycles are analyzed in the dimensions of sustainable development. For scenarios base and capture, results show that combination nuclear energy- reformed of gas it is the best alternative for cases base and economic. For social case, the evaluated better technology is the hydraulics, and for environmental case, the best option is represented by the regenerative thermochemistry cycles. The scenario Outlook 2030 show a favorable tendency of growth of renewable sources, being the aeolian energy the best technology evaluated in the cases base and environmental, the hydraulics technology in the social case and in the economic case the reformed of natural gas that uses nuclear heat. (Author)

  4. Geothermal energy in the world energy scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barbier, E.

    1989-01-01

    This paper reports on the world energy consumption between 1960 and 1984 from primary energy sources (coal, natural gas, oil, hydropower, nuclear energy) and the same in percentages from 1925. This highlights the diminishing role of coal and the increased consumption of gas and oil. The latter has stabilized around 42% of the total after the drop in demand resulting from the oil crisis of 1973. The world energy consumption has then been divided into industrialized and developing countries. It appears that the latter, with a population equal to 68% of the total world population, consumed 23% of the world energy in 1982. Furthermore, the consumption figures show that the demand for domestic energy is much smaller in developing countries, and it is well-known that domestic energy consumed is one of the parameters used to assess standard of living. The total installed electric capacity throughout the world is then reported, divided between developed and developing countries, showing that the latter consumed 11% of all the electricity generated in the world in 1981. The world installed electric power of geothermal origin at the end of 1985 is shown, along with estimates for 1990. Geothermal energy represents 0.2% of the world electric power. This is obviously a small figure and indicates that geothermal energy plays a minor role on the world energy scene. However, if we distinguish between industrialized and developing countries, we can observe that, with their currently limited electrical consumption but good geothermal prospects, the developing countries could achieve quite a significant contribution to their total electric energy from that of geothermal origin, increasing at the moment from 3 to 19%. Finally, a comparison is made between electricity generating costs of different sources, showing that geothermal energy is competitive. A table illustrates the world evolution in installed geothermal capacity from 1950 to 1985. The non-electric uses of geothermal energy

  5. Modelling the existing Irish energy-system to identify future energy costs and the maximum wind penetration feasible

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Connolly, D.; Lund, Henrik; Mathiesen, Brian Vad

    2010-01-01

    energy- system to future energy costs by considering future fuel prices, CO2 prices, and different interest rates. The final investigation identifies the maximum wind penetration feasible on the 2007 Irish energy- system from a technical and economic perspective, as wind is the most promising fluctuating...... for the existing Irish energy-system is approximately 30% from both a technical and economic perspective based on 2020 energy prices. Future studies will use the model developed in this study to show that higher wind penetrations can be achieved if the existing energy-system is modified correctly. Finally...... renewable resource available in Ireland. It is concluded that the reference model simulates the Irish energy-system accurately, the annual fuel costs for Ireland’s energy could increase by approximately 58% from 2007 to 2020 if a business-as-usual scenario is followed, and the optimum wind penetration...

  6. RESGen: Renewable Energy Scenario Generation Platform

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, Jan Emil Banning; Pinson, Pierre

    2016-01-01

    studies remains. Consequently, our aim here is to propose an open-source platform for space-time probabilistic forecasting of renewable energy generation (wind and solar power). This document covers both methodological and implementation aspects, to be seen as a companion document for the open......-source scenario generation platform. It can generate predictive densities, trajectories and space-time interdependencies for renewable energy generation. The underlying model works as a post-processing of point forecasts. For illustration, two setups are considered: the case of day-ahead forecasts to be issued......Space-time scenarios of renewable power generation are increasingly used as input to decision-making in operational problems. They may also be used in planning studies to account for the inherent uncertainty in operations. Similarly using scenarios to derive chance-constraints or robust...

  7. Sustainable energy-economic-environmental scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2002-03-31

    IIASA's Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies (ECS) Project has proposed a quantitative 'working definition' of sustainable development E3 (energy-economic-environmental) scenarios. ECS has proposed four criteria for sustainability: economic growth is sustained throughout the time horizon; socioeconomic inequity among world regions is reduced over the 21st century; reserves-to-production (R/P) ratio for exhaustible primary energy resources do not decline; and long-term environmental stress is mitigated. Using these criteria, 40 long-term E3 scenarios generated by ECS models were reviewed and analyzed. Amongst the conclusions drawn were: slow population growth or stabilization of global population appears to be prerequisite for sustainable development; economic growth alone does not guarantee a sustainable future; carbon intensities of total primary energy must decrease faster than the historical trend; strategies for fossil fuel consumption must aim at non-decreasing R/P ratios; and carbon emissions must be near or below today's levels at the end of this century. The analysis of sustainable development scenarios is an important step towards formulating long-term strategies aimed at climate stabilization. 6 figs., 1 tab.

  8. Technology penetration and capital stock turnover. Lessons from IEA scenario analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Philibert, C. [International Energy Agency IEA, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OECD, Paris (France)

    2007-05-15

    The aim of this paper is to reflect on the significant differences between the emissions reductions projections in mid-term and long-term scenarios, and to explore their policy implications. It draws mainly on two recent IEA publications: the 2006 World Energy Outlook (WEO), which contains energy and energy-related CO2 projections up to 2030, and the 2006-published Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP), which considers scenarios and strategies up to 2050. The analysis focuses on a comparison of the Alternative Policy Scenario of the 2006 WEO, and the various Accelerated Technology (ACT) Scenarios in the ETP. The next section provides the necessary background on these two publications and their energy-related CO2 emissions by 2030 and 2050, respectively. The third section investigates in some more depth the reasons for the large differences in the amount of emission reductions at these dates. Capital stock turnover and technology maturation lead times, in particular, are identified as primary reasons for the differences. The fourth section suggests several possible policy conclusions that can be drawn from this analysis. They include thought pieces with respect to the action required in the short-term; to the necessity of long-term signals; to the advantages and limitations of short-term targets; and to the opportunities and challenges the international community faces with respect to emission reductions in developing countries.

  9. Exploring past energy changes and their implications for the pace of penetration of new energy technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lund, P.D.

    2010-01-01

    Possible growth paths for new electricity generation technologies are investigated on the basis of an empirical analysis of past penetration rates. Finding and understanding high market penetration scenarios is relevant to formulating climate change mitigation strategies. The analysis shows that under favorable growth conditions, photovoltaics and wind could produce 15% and 25%, respectively, of world electricity by 2050. Under the same assumptions nuclear power could increase to 41% of world electricity. But it is unlikely that all three technology paths could be realized up to these values simultaneously and therefore the penetration rates presented here should be considered as indicative only. The results show that under positive conditions, an embryonic technology could move as a preferred option into a mainstream energy source within half a century. The introduction of growth constraints reflecting, e.g., severe economic, technical, or political limitations could reduce the above numbers by a factor of up to 2-3. The results indicate a decline in the relative year-to-year growth of new technologies when they have higher market shares. A comparison of the results with other short-term and long-term technology scenarios shows satisfactory agreement.

  10. Managing high penetration of renewable energy in MV grid by electric vehicle storage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kordheili, Reza Ahmadi; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte; Pillai, Jayakrishnan Radhakrishna

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes an intelligent algorithm for dealing with high penetration of renewable energy sources (RESs) in the medium voltage by intelligently managing electric vehicles (EVs), as one of the grid flexible loads. The MV grid used in this work is a CIGRE benchmark grid. Different...... residential and industrial loads are considered in this grid. The connection of medium voltage wind turbines to the grid is investigated. The solar panels in this study are residential panels. Also, EVs are located among the buses with residential demand. The study is done for different winter and summer...... scenarios, considering typical load profiles in Denmark. Different scenarios have been studied with different penetration level of RESs in the grid. The results show the capability of the proposed algorithm to reduce voltage deviations among the grid buses, as well as to increase the RES penetration...

  11. Modeling the Greek energy system: Scenarios of clean energy use and their implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roinioti, Argiro; Koroneos, Christopher; Wangensteen, Ivar

    2012-01-01

    The Greek energy system is one of the most carbon intensive energy systems in Europe. Hydrocarbons and solid fuels (lignite) cover over 80% of the final energy demand. The main objective of this work is to build energy scenarios for the future – with a focus on the electricity production system – and explore how these scenarios are reflected in economic, environmental terms and in terms of energy efficiency. The main tool which is used in the scenario analysis is LEAP (Long range Energy Alternatives Planning System). The scenarios are essentially the result of developing “storylines” driven by the uncertainties which cannot be controlled by the analysts or decision makers, and technical and non-technical options the analyst or decision maker may choose from. A set of uncertainties is considered as a possible future or storyline, and one or more options can be selected as a possible strategy. The combination of a storyline and a specific strategy gives a scenario. The main uncertainties for the Greek energy system are identified and various technical options are explored. Rather than using a model which leads to optimum strategies from a set of alternatives, the model in use will apply different strategies. - Highlights: ► A demand-driven approach was used to build energy scenarios for the Greek interconnected system. ► Each Scenario consists of a possible future and a strategy. ► High RES penetration will decrease CO 2 emissions but it will also increase capital cost. ► Carbon intensity is reduced in all the scenarios.

  12. Solar energy market penetration models - Science or number mysticism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, E. H., Jr.

    1980-01-01

    The forecast market potential of a solar technology is an important factor determining its R&D funding. Since solar energy market penetration models are the method used to forecast market potential, they have a pivotal role in a solar technology's development. This paper critiques the applicability of the most common solar energy market penetration models. It is argued that the assumptions underlying the foundations of rigorously developed models, or the absence of a reasonable foundation for the remaining models, restrict their applicability.

  13. World Energy Scenarios: Composing energy futures to 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frei, Christoph; Whitney, Rob; Schiffer, Hans-Wilhelm; Rose, Karl; Rieser, Dan A.; Al-Qahtani, Ayed; Thomas, Philip; Turton, Hal; Densing, Martin; Panos, Evangelos; Volkart, Kathrin

    2013-01-01

    The World Energy Scenarios: Composing energy futures to 2050 is the result of a three-year study conducted by over 60 experts from nearly 30 countries, with modelling provided by the Paul Scherrer Institute. The report assesses two contrasting policy scenarios, the more consumer driven Jazz scenario and the more voter-driven Symphony scenario with a key differentiator being the ability of countries to pass through the Doha Climate Gateway. The WEC scenarios use an explorative approach to assess what is actually happening in the world now, to help gauge what will happen in the future and the real impact of today's choices on tomorrow's energy landscape. Rather than telling policy-makers and senior energy leaders what to do in order to achieve a specific policy goal, the WEC's World Energy Scenarios allow them to test the key assumptions that decision-makers decide to better shape the energy of tomorrow This document includes the French and English versions of the executive summary and the English version of the full report

  14. The IIASA'83 scenario of energy development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogner, H.H.

    1984-01-01

    The prospects for natural gas as a major source of energy supply are good. Spurred by the energy crises of the 'seventies, recent exploration for gas resources as well as technological advances in deep drilling have enhanced the picture of gas as a plentiful fossil resource. Technological improvements in transporting gas over large distances, as piped gas and as a liquid, suggest the strong possibility of gas as an important commodity in energy trade. In addition, gas is a high quality and relatively clean fuel, which is especially attractive in today's world of environmental concern for pollution emissions from energy combustion. Such developments led to the design of the IIASA'83 Scenario of Energy Development, which explored the techno-economic feasibility of the expanded use of gas in energy systems. The work drew on the findings of the IIASA global energy analysis, documented in 'Energy in a Finite World'. All countries of the world were covered in the quantitative analysis, grouped regionally by similarity in energy resources and economic structure and not necessarily on the basis of geographic proximity. The period studied was necessarily the next half century, from 1980 to 2030, in view of the inertia in technological and economic systems and this constraint on the development of energy infrastructures. Global primary energy consumption increases some twofold from 10 TW.a/a to 21.9 TW.a/a over the next 50 years, while economic output globally grows some threefold. The breakdown of global primary energy consumption indicates an absolute increase in the use of all primary energy sources over the study period, with fossil fuels continuing to supply the lion's share of primary energy. The buildup of non-fossil energy sources to global supply levels by 2030 is likely to be constrained by the high capital investments required at a period of modest economic growth and by the sociopolitical controversy surrounding the use of some of these technologies. (author)

  15. Barriers to renewable energy penetration. A framework for analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Painuly, Jyoti P.

    2001-01-01

    Renewable energy has the potential to play an important role in providing energy with sustainability to the vast populations in developing countries who as yet have no access to clean energy. Although economically viable fur several applications, renewable energy has not been able to realise its...... potential due to several barriers to its penetration. A framework has been developed in this paper to identify the barriers to renewable energy penetration acid to suggest measures to overcome them. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved....

  16. Hydrogen energy network start-up scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weingartner, S.; Ellerbrock, H.

    1994-01-01

    Hydrogen is widely discussed as future fuel and energy storage medium either to replace conventional fuels for automobiles, aircrafts and ships or to avoid the necessity of bulky battery systems for electricity storage, especially in connection with solar power systems. These discussions however started more than 25 years ago and up to now hydrogen has failed to achieve a major break-through towards wider application as energy storage medium in civil markets. The main reason is that other fuels are cheaper and very well implemented in our daily life. A study has been performed at Deutsche Aerospace in order to evaluate the boundary conditions, either political or economical, which would give hydrogen the necessary push, i.e. advantage over conventional fuels. The main goal of this study was to identify critical influence factors and specific start-up scenarios which would allow an economical and practically realistic use of hydrogen as fuel and energy medium in certain niche markets outside the space industry. Method and major results of this study are presented in detail in the paper. Certain niche markets could be identified, where with little initial governmental support, either by funding, tax laws or legislation, hydrogen can compete with conventional fuels. This however requires a scenario where a lot of small actions have to be taken by a high variety of institutions and industries which today are not interconnected with each other, i.e. it requires a new cooperative and proactive network between e.g. energy utilities, car industries, those who have a sound experience with hydrogen (space industry, chemical industry) and last, but certainly not the least, the government. Based on the developed scenario precise recommendations are drawn as conclusions

  17. Nuclear energy education scenario around the world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barabas, Roberta de Carvalho; Sabundjian, Gaiane

    2013-01-01

    Nuclear energy has been used as a source of clean energy with many benefits. Nevertheless, it is still addressed with prejudice. The atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki during World War II (1945), the Three Mile Island accident (1979), Chernobyl accident (1986), the crash of the cesium-137 in Goiana, Brazil (1987), and the recent accident in Fukushima (2011) may have been responsible for the negative image of nuclear energy. Researches on education have been conducted with students concerning the conceptual and practical issues of nuclear energy. This work aims to review the literature about nuclear energy education around the world in both, elementary school and high school. Since most educational researches on nuclear energy were published after 1980, this literature review covered the researches that have been published since 1980. The data were presented in chronological order. The results from the literature review provided a clear visualization of the global nuclear energy educational scenario, showing that the theme is still addressed with prejudice due to an incorrect view of nuclear energy and a limited view of its benefits. Concerning the science textbooks, the literature reports that the theme should be better addressed, encouraging students to research more about it. The data from this literature review will serve as a reference for a future proposal for a teaching training program for Brazilian science/physics high school teachers using a new teaching approach. (author)

  18. Nuclear energy education scenario around the world

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barabas, Roberta de Carvalho; Sabundjian, Gaiane, E-mail: praroberta@uol.com.br, E-mail: gdjian@ipen.br [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2013-07-01

    Nuclear energy has been used as a source of clean energy with many benefits. Nevertheless, it is still addressed with prejudice. The atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki during World War II (1945), the Three Mile Island accident (1979), Chernobyl accident (1986), the crash of the cesium-137 in Goiana, Brazil (1987), and the recent accident in Fukushima (2011) may have been responsible for the negative image of nuclear energy. Researches on education have been conducted with students concerning the conceptual and practical issues of nuclear energy. This work aims to review the literature about nuclear energy education around the world in both, elementary school and high school. Since most educational researches on nuclear energy were published after 1980, this literature review covered the researches that have been published since 1980. The data were presented in chronological order. The results from the literature review provided a clear visualization of the global nuclear energy educational scenario, showing that the theme is still addressed with prejudice due to an incorrect view of nuclear energy and a limited view of its benefits. Concerning the science textbooks, the literature reports that the theme should be better addressed, encouraging students to research more about it. The data from this literature review will serve as a reference for a future proposal for a teaching training program for Brazilian science/physics high school teachers using a new teaching approach. (author)

  19. Impacts of Large Scale Wind Penetration on Energy Supply Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Kabouris

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Large penetration of Renewable Energy Sources (RES impacts Energy Supply Industry (ESI in many aspects leading to a fundamental change in electric power systems. It raises a number of technical challenges to the Transmission System Operators (TSOs, Distribution System Operators (DSOs and Wind Turbine Generators (WTG constructors. This paper aims to present in a thorough and coherent way the redrawn picture for Energy Systems under these conditions. Topics related to emergent technical challenges, technical solutions required and finally the impact on ESI due to large wind power penetration, are analyzed. Finally, general conclusions are extracted about the ESI current and future state and general directions are recommended.

  20. Scenario-based analyses of energy system development and its environmental implications in Thailand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shrestha, Ram M.; Malla, Sunil; Liyanage, Migara H.

    2007-01-01

    Thailand is one of the fastest growing energy-intensive economies in Southeast Asia. To formulate sound energy policies in the country, it is important to understand the impact of energy use on the environment over the long-period. This study examines energy system development and its associated greenhouse gas and local air pollutant emissions under four scenarios in Thailand through the year 2050. The four scenarios involve different growth paths for economy, population, energy efficiency and penetration of renewable energy technologies. The paper assesses the changes in primary energy supply mix, sector-wise final energy demand, energy import dependency and CO 2 , SO 2 and NO x emissions under four scenarios using end-use based Asia-Pacific Integrated Assessment Model (AIM/Enduse) of Thailand. (author)

  1. Energy-environment scenarios for Senegal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lazarus, M. [Stockholm Environment Inst. Boston, MA (United States); Diallo, S.; Sokona, Y. [Environment and Development in the Third World, Dakar (Senegal)

    1994-06-01

    This paper explores the energy and environmental dimensions of proposed energy strategies for Senegal. We do so using a quantitative analytical framework, and begin to explore how useful such numerical methods can be in an African context. Based on past studies and the environmental database system, we develop a set of emission factors for use in Senegal. Finally, we address ways to integrate the often unquantifiable environmental and economics cost and benefits for environmentally informed decision making. In summary, we find that polices intended to promote the substitution of liquid petroleum gas (LPG) for charcoal in households can actually reduce greenhouse gas emissions while contributing to the improvement of more important near-term environmental problems. At the same time, the impacts of LPG substitution on increasing the oil import bill is relatively small when compared to other petroleum product usage.Improving end-use energy efficiency also shows promise, suggesting that new demand-side initiatives are needed. Overall, the integrated energy-environment scenario approach can reveal combined policy impacts that might otherwise be missed in a single project or policy approach. 13 figs, 5 tabs

  2. Scenario-based roadmapping assessing nuclear technology development paths for future nuclear energy system scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Den Durpel, Luc; Roelofs, Ferry; Yacout, Abdellatif

    2009-01-01

    Nuclear energy may play a significant role in a future sustainable energy mix. The transition from today's nuclear energy system towards a future more sustainable nuclear energy system will be dictated by technology availability, energy market competitiveness and capability to achieve sustainability through the nuclear fuel cycle. Various scenarios have been investigated worldwide each with a diverse set of assumptions on the timing and characteristics of new nuclear energy systems. Scenario-based roadmapping combines the dynamic scenario-analysis of nuclear energy systems' futures with the technology roadmap information published and analysed in various technology assessment reports though integrated within the nuclear technology roadmap Nuclear-Roadmap.net. The advantages of this combination is to allow mutual improvement of scenario analysis and nuclear technology roadmapping providing a higher degree of confidence in the assessment of nuclear energy system futures. This paper provides a description of scenario-based roadmapping based on DANESS and Nuclear-Roadmap.net. (author)

  3. Impacts of reserve methodology on production cost in high-penetration renewable scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brinkman, G.; Lew, D.; Hummon, M.; Ibanez, E.; Ela, E.; Hodge, B.M. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2012-07-01

    Prior to wind and solar penetration, electric power systems were designed to handle variability in system load, uncertainty in load forecasts, and contingency events. Frequency regulations reserve typically handles high frequency (less than 5-minute time scale) variability. Contingency reserves supply energy in the case of the loss of a generator or transmission line. Wind and solar photovoltaic generation and variability to electric power system generation that must be balanced by the system operator. New ancillary service products may be necessary to minimize the cost of integrating these variable renewable generators. For example, California ISO is studying incorporating a flexible ramping product to ensure sufficient ramping capability. A flexibility reserve product could help ensure that sufficient capacity is online to handle unexpected variability in wind and solar generation. (orig.)

  4. Biomass Scenario Model | Energy Analysis | NREL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biomass Scenario Model Biomass Scenario Model The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique range of lignocellulosic biomass feedstocks into biofuels. Over the past 25 years, the corn ethanol plant matter (lignocellulosic biomass) to fermentable sugars for the production of fuel ethanol

  5. Modelling the existing Irish energy-system to identify future energy costs and the maximum wind penetration feasible

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Connolly, D.; Leahy, M.; Lund, H.; Mathiesen, B.V.

    2010-01-01

    In this study a model of the Irish energy-system was developed using EnergyPLAN based on the year 2007, which was then used for three investigations. The first compares the model results with actual values from 2007 to validate its accuracy. The second illustrates the exposure of the existing Irish energy-system to future energy costs by considering future fuel prices, CO 2 prices, and different interest rates. The final investigation identifies the maximum wind penetration feasible on the 2007 Irish energy-system from a technical and economic perspective, as wind is the most promising fluctuating renewable resource available in Ireland. It is concluded that the reference model simulates the Irish energy-system accurately, the annual fuel costs for Ireland's energy could increase by approximately 58% from 2007 to 2020 if a business-as-usual scenario is followed, and the optimum wind penetration for the existing Irish energy-system is approximately 30% from both a technical and economic perspective based on 2020 energy prices. Future studies will use the model developed in this study to show that higher wind penetrations can be achieved if the existing energy-system is modified correctly. Finally, these results are not only applicable to Ireland, but also represent the issues facing many other countries. (author)

  6. Global energy scenarios, climate change and sustainable development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

    2003-01-01

    Energy scenarios provide a framework for exploring future energy perspectives, including various combinations of technology options and their implications. Many scenarios in the literature illustrate how energy system developments may affect global change. Examples are the new emissions scenarios by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the energy scenarios by the World Energy Assessment (WEA). Some of these scenarios describe energy futures that are compatible with sustainable development goals; such as improved energy efficiencies and the adoption of advanced energy supply technologies. Sustainable development scenarios are also characterized by low environmental impacts (at local, regional and global scales) and equitable allocation of resources and wealth. They can help explore different transitions toward sustainable development paths and alternative energy perspectives in general. The considerable differences in expected total energy requirements among the scenarios reflect the varying approaches used to address the need for energy services in the future and demonstrate effects of different policy frameworks, changes in human behavior and investments in the future, as well as alternative unfolding of the main scenario driving forces such as demographic transitions, economic development and technological change. Increases in research, development and deployment efforts for new energy technologies are a prerequisite for achieving further social and economic development in the world. Significant technological advances will be required, as well as incremental improvements in conventional energy technologies. In general, significant policy and behavioral changes will be needed during the next few decades to achieve more sustainable development paths and mitigate climate change toward the end of the century. (au)

  7. Development of Optimal Stressor Scenarios for New Operational Energy Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-12-01

    OPTIMAL STRESSOR SCENARIOS FOR NEW OPERATIONAL ENERGY SYSTEMS by Geoffrey E. Fastabend December 2017 Thesis Advisor: Alejandro S... ENERGY SYSTEMS 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Geoffrey E. Fastabend 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Naval Postgraduate School...developed and tested simulation model for operational energy related systems in order to develop better stressor scenarios for acceptance testing

  8. An improved market penetration model for wind energy technology forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lund, P D [Helsinki Univ. of Technology, Espoo (Finland). Advanced Energy Systems

    1996-12-31

    An improved market penetration model with application to wind energy forecasting is presented. In the model, a technology diffusion model and manufacturing learning curve are combined. Based on a 85% progress ratio that was found for European wind manufactures and on wind market statistics, an additional wind power capacity of ca 4 GW is needed in Europe to reach a 30 % price reduction. A full breakthrough to low-cost utility bulk power markets could be achieved at a 24 GW level. (author)

  9. An improved market penetration model for wind energy technology forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lund, P.D.

    1995-01-01

    An improved market penetration model with application to wind energy forecasting is presented. In the model, a technology diffusion model and manufacturing learning curve are combined. Based on a 85% progress ratio that was found for European wind manufactures and on wind market statistics, an additional wind power capacity of ca 4 GW is needed in Europe to reach a 30 % price reduction. A full breakthrough to low-cost utility bulk power markets could be achieved at a 24 GW level. (author)

  10. An improved market penetration model for wind energy technology forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lund, P.D. [Helsinki Univ. of Technology, Espoo (Finland). Advanced Energy Systems

    1995-12-31

    An improved market penetration model with application to wind energy forecasting is presented. In the model, a technology diffusion model and manufacturing learning curve are combined. Based on a 85% progress ratio that was found for European wind manufactures and on wind market statistics, an additional wind power capacity of ca 4 GW is needed in Europe to reach a 30 % price reduction. A full breakthrough to low-cost utility bulk power markets could be achieved at a 24 GW level. (author)

  11. Day-Ahead Energy Planning with 100% Electric Vehicle Penetration in the Nordic Region by 2050

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhaoxi Liu

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the day-ahead energy planning of passenger cars with 100% electric vehicle (EV penetration in the Nordic region by 2050. EVs will play an important role in the future energy systems which can both reduce the greenhouse gas (GHG emissions from the transport sector and provide the demand side flexibility required by smart grids. On the other hand, the EVs will increase the electricity consumption. In order to quantify the electricity consumption increase due to the 100% EV penetration in the Nordic region to facilitate the power system planning studies, the day-ahead energy planning of EVs has been investigated with different EV charging scenarios. Five EV charging scenarios have been considered in the energy planning analysis which are: uncontrolled charging all day, uncontrolled charging at home, timed charging, spot price based charging all day and spot price based charging at home. The demand profiles of the five charging analysis show that timed charging is the least favorable charging option and the spot priced based EV charging might induce high peak demands. The EV charging demand will have a considerable share of the energy consumption in the future Nordic power system.

  12. Profit-based conventional resource scheduling with renewable energy penetration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, K. Srikanth; Panwar, Lokesh Kumar; Kumar, Rajesh; Panigrahi, B. K.

    2017-08-01

    Technological breakthroughs in renewable energy technologies (RETs) enabled them to attain grid parity thereby making them potential contenders for existing conventional resources. To examine the market participation of RETs, this paper formulates a scheduling problem accommodating energy market participation of wind- and solar-independent power producers (IPPs) treating both conventional and RETs as identical entities. Furthermore, constraints pertaining to penetration and curtailments of RETs are restructured. Additionally, an appropriate objective function for profit incurred by conventional resource IPPs through reserve market participation as a function of renewable energy curtailment is also proposed. The proposed concept is simulated with a test system comprising 10 conventional generation units in conjunction with solar photovoltaic (SPV) and wind energy generators (WEG). The simulation results indicate that renewable energy integration and its curtailment limits influence the market participation or scheduling strategies of conventional resources in both energy and reserve markets. Furthermore, load and reliability parameters are also affected.

  13. Analysis of Long-term Energy and Carbon Emission Scenarios for India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rajesh, N.; Kapshe, M.; Shukla, P.R.; Garg, A.; Rana, A.

    2003-01-01

    In the coming years India faces great challenges in energy and environment. The path of development chosen by India, upon which lies the future growth of energy and emission trajectories, would be greatly influenced by technological developments both within and outside the country, economic cooperation between countries, and global cooperation in limiting greenhouse gas emissions. This paper discusses the integrated modeling system used for developing and analyzing the long-term trajectories and presents results for the scenarios developed. In the context of ongoing market reforms two scenarios - accelerated and decelerated reforms - are developed depicting fast and slow progress in energy sector reforms compared to expectations in the baseline scenario. Accelerated market reforms would spur improvements in technological efficiencies. Reforms would lower investment risks in India, thereby stimulating increased levels of foreign direct investment. On the other hand in decelerated reform scenario economic growth is lower than that in the base case, there is low access to capital, and technological improvements lag behind those in the base case. In another scenario we assume specific policy interventions for penetration of renewable technologies over the baseline scenario, for promotion and accelerated deployment of renewable energy technologies over and above the baseline assumptions. A scenario with carbon (c) constraints has also been developed and the results discussed

  14. Analysis on Japan's long-term energy outlook considering massive deployment of variable renewable energy under nuclear energy scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Komiyama, Ryoichi; Fujii, Yasumasa

    2012-01-01

    This paper investigates Japan's long-term energy outlook to 2050 considering massive deployment of solar photovoltaic (PV) system and wind power generation under nuclear energy scenario. The extensive introduction of PV system and wind power system are expected to play an important role in enhancing electricity supply security after Fukushima Nuclear Power Accident which has increased the uncertainty of future additional construction of nuclear power plant in Japan. On these backgrounds, we develop integrated energy assessment model comprised of both econometric energy demand and supply model and optimal power generation mix model. The latter model is able to explicitly analyze the impact of output fluctuation in variable renewable in detailed time resolution at 10 minutes on consecutive 365 days, incorporating the role of stationary battery technology. Simulation results reveal that intermittent fluctuation derived from high penetration level of those renewables is controlled by quick load following operation by natural gas combined cycle power plant, pumped-storage hydro power, stationary battery technology and the output suppression of PV and wind power. The results show as well that massive penetration of the renewables does not necessarily require the comparable scale of stationary battery capacity. Additionally, on the scenario which assumes the decommissioning of nuclear power plants which lifetime are over 40 years, required PV capacity in 2050 amounts to more than double of PV installment potential in both building and abandoned farmland area. (author)

  15. The Potential for Energy Storage to Provide Peaking Capacity in California Under Increased Penetration of Solar Photovoltaics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denholm, Paul L [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Margolis, Robert M [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2018-03-14

    In this report, we examine the potential for replacing conventional peaking capacity in California with energy storage, including analysis of the changing technical potential with increased storage deployment and the effect of PV deployment. We examine nine years of historic load data, a range of storage durations (2-8 hours), and a range of PV penetration levels (0%-30%). We demonstrate how PV increases the ability of storage to reduce peak net demand. In the scenarios analyzed, the expected penetration of PV in California in 2020 could more than double the potential for 4-hour energy storage to provide capacity services.

  16. Energy efficiency improvement potentials and a low energy demand scenario for the global industrial sector

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kermeli, Katerina; Graus, Wina H J; Worrell, Ernst

    2014-01-01

    The adoption of energy efficiency measures can significantly reduce industrial energy use. This study estimates the future industrial energy consumption under two energy demand scenarios: (1) a reference scenario that follows business as usual trends and (2) a low energy demand scenario that takes

  17. Net load forecasting for high renewable energy penetration grids

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaur, Amanpreet; Nonnenmacher, Lukas; Coimbra, Carlos F.M.

    2016-01-01

    We discuss methods for net load forecasting and their significance for operation and management of power grids with high renewable energy penetration. Net load forecasting is an enabling technology for the integration of microgrid fleets with the macrogrid. Net load represents the load that is traded between the grids (microgrid and utility grid). It is important for resource allocation and electricity market participation at the point of common coupling between the interconnected grids. We compare two inherently different approaches: additive and integrated net load forecast models. The proposed methodologies are validated on a microgrid with 33% annual renewable energy (solar) penetration. A heuristics based solar forecasting technique is proposed, achieving skill of 24.20%. The integrated solar and load forecasting model outperforms the additive model by 10.69% and the uncertainty range for the additive model is larger than the integrated model by 2.2%. Thus, for grid applications an integrated forecast model is recommended. We find that the net load forecast errors and the solar forecasting errors are cointegrated with a common stochastic drift. This is useful for future planning and modeling because the solar energy time-series allows to infer important features of the net load time-series, such as expected variability and uncertainty. - Highlights: • Net load forecasting methods for grids with renewable energy generation are discussed. • Integrated solar and load forecasting outperforms the additive model by 10.69%. • Net load forecasting reduces the uncertainty between the interconnected grids.

  18. Energy transition: from national scenarios to European policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mathieu, Mathilde

    2013-01-01

    This thesis aims at seeing how an analysis of national scenarios of energy transition may contribute to the elaboration of European energy and climate policies. The author first identifies the characteristics of energy scenarios, and the relationship between a scenario considered as an object on the one hand, and a vision for the long term on the other hand. She proposes an analysis framework which enables a comparative analysis of scenarios in order to identify stakes and challenges for the future European policy. In the second part, the author presents three examples (Germany, United Kingdom and France) and discusses their political context and adopted scenarios. After an overview of existing European energy and climate policies, the results of the analysis are given for two specific sectors: transports and electricity

  19. The role of fusion power in energy scenarios. Proposed method and review of existing scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lako, P; Ybema, J.R.; Seebregts, A.J.

    1998-04-01

    The European Commission wishes more insight in the potential role of fusion energy in the second half of the 21st century. Therefore, several scenario studies are carried out in the so-called macro-task Long Term Scenarios to investigate the potential role of fusion power in the energy system. The main contribution of ECN to the macro-task is to perform a long term energy scenario study for Western Europe with special focus on the role of fusion power. This interim report gives some methodological considerations for such an analysis. A discussion is given on the problems related to the long time horizon of the scenario study such as the forecast of technological innovations, the selection of appropriate discount rates and the links with climate change. Key parameters which are expected to have large effects on the role and cost-effectiveness are discussed in general terms. The key parameters to be varied include level and structure of energy demand, availability and prices of fossil energy, CO2 reduction policy, discount rates, cost and potential of renewable energy sources, availability of fission power and CO2 capture and disposal and the cost and the maximum rate of market growth of fusion power. The scenario calculations are to be performed later in the project with the help of an existing cost minimisation model of the Western European energy system. This MARKAL model is briefly introduced. The results of the model calculations are expected to make clear under which combinations of scenario parameters fusion power is needed and how large the expected financial benefits will be. The present interim report also gives an evaluation of existing energy scenarios with respect to the role of fusion power. 18 refs

  20. Optimal wind energy penetration in power systems: An approach based on spatial distribution of wind speed

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zolfaghari, Saeed; Riahy, Gholam H.; Abedi, Mehrdad; Golshannavaz, Sajjad

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Chronological wind speeds at distinct locations of the wind farm are not the same. • Spatial distribution of wind speed affects wind farm’s output power expectation. • Neglecting wind speed’s spatial doubt leads to mistake in wind energy penetration. • Scenario-based method can be used for effective wind capacity penetration level. - Abstract: Contributing in power system expansions, the present study establishes an efficient scheme for optimal integration of wind energy resources. The proposed approach highly concerns the spatial distribution of wind speed at different points of a wind farm. In mathematical statements, a suitable probability distribution function (PDF) is well-designed for representing such uncertainties. In such conditions, it is likely to have dissimilar output powers for individual and identical wind turbines. Thus, the overall aggregated PDF of a wind farm remarkably influences the critical parameters including the expected power and energy, capacity factor, and the reliability metrics such as loss of load expectation (LOLE) and expected energy not supplied (EENS). Furthermore, the proposed approach is deployed for optimal allocation of wind energy in bulk power systems. Hence, two typical test systems are numerically analyzed to interrogate the performance of the proposed approach. The conducted survey discloses an over/underestimation of harvestable wind energy in the case of overlooking spatial distributions. Thus, inaccurate amounts of wind farm’s capacity factor, output power, energy and reliability indices might be estimated. Meanwhile, the number of wind turbines may be misjudged to be installed. However, the proposed approach yields in a fair judgment regarding the overall performance of the wind farm. Consequently, a reliable penetration level of wind energy to the power system is assured. Extra discussions are provided to deeply assess the promising merits of the founded approach.

  1. Deciding the Future: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-11-15

    This WEC study is bottom-up regional view of our energy future focusing on policies to ensure energy sustainability. Experts from five regions and all energy domains worked together to produce four different scenarios to predict how differing levels of cooperation and government involvement would affect the energy future of the world.

  2. Canada's energy future : reference case and scenarios to 2030

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    Energy is essential to the comfort and economic prosperity of Canadians. This report highlighted some of the issues that Canada faces with respect to its energy future. The report focused on emerging trends in energy supply and demand, and examined various energy futures that may be available to Canadians up to the year 2030. Three different scenarios were presented: (1) a continuing trends scenario; (2) a triple E scenario in which economic, environmental and energy objectives are balanced; and (3) a fortified islands scenario in which security concerns were coupled with international unrest and protectionist governments. The report determined that energy demand will remain a function of population and economic growth. Automobiles will continue to rely on fossil fuels. Energy efficiency will improve in relation to the effectiveness of government policies, and a move towards natural gas alternatives will occur. However, fossil fuels will remain a dominant source of energy supply. Oil sands production grew in all 3 of the evaluated scenarios. It is expected that total natural gas production will decline and imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) will increase. In all 3 scenarios greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions increased or only slightly declined. A full spectrum of GHG mitigation strategies will need to be implemented so that Canada can meet its target of a 20 per cent reduction in GHGs by 2020. It was concluded that effective policies are needed to optimize Canada's multiple objectives of economic growth, environment sustainability, and development of energy resources. 6 tabs., 118 figs

  3. World Energy Scenarios to 2050: the Europe Region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weeda, E.

    2006-01-01

    The topic of this paper is an overview of the Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050 study objectives, with emphasis on The Report for the Europe Region. The study is focused on achievement of the 3A's global energy goal (Accessibility, Availability, and Acceptability) by using various policy scenarios. The heart of the study will therefore be Policy Scenarios postulated within the context of two dimensions of government policy uncertainty. One with the dimension indicating whether the world is heading towards increased globalism and co-operation between governments and/or business and industry, or more towards bilateralism and nationalism outside global governance institutions. As outcomes, there is particularly described each of the four predicted scenarios: L'Europe des Patries, Fortress Europe, Confident Europe and Trailer Europe considering five main common indicators: political context, energy security, market forces/competition, environment/climate change, and energy mix/energy technology.(author)

  4. Deployment Effects of Marine Renewable Energy Technologies: Wave Energy Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mirko Previsic

    2010-06-17

    Given proper care in siting, design, deployment, operation and maintenance, wave energy conversion could become one of the more environmentally benign sources of electricity generation. In order to accelerate the adoption of these emerging hydrokinetic and marine energy technologies, navigational and environmental concerns must be identified and addressed. All developing hydrokinetic projects involve a wide variety of stakeholders. One of the key issues that site developers face as they engage with this range of stakeholders is that, due to a lack of technical certainty, many of the possible conflicts (e.g., shipping and fishing) and environmental issues are not well-understood,. In September 2008, re vision consulting, LLC was selected by the Department of Energy (DoE) to apply a scenario-based assessment to the emerging hydrokinetic technology sector in order to evaluate the potential impact of these technologies on the marine environment and navigation constraints. The project’s scope of work includes the establishment of baseline scenarios for wave and tidal power conversion at potential future deployment sites. The scenarios capture variations in technical approaches and deployment scales to properly identify and characterize environmental effects and navigational effects. The goal of the project is to provide all stakeholders with an improved understanding of the potential range of technical attributes and potential effects of these emerging technologies and focus all stakeholders on the critical issues that need to be addressed. By identifying and addressing navigational and environmental concerns in the early stages of the industry’s development, serious mistakes that could potentially derail industry-wide development can be avoided. This groundwork will also help in streamlining siting and associated permitting processes, which are considered key hurdles for the industry’s development in the U.S. today. Re vision is coordinating its efforts with two

  5. The Reality and Future Scenarios of Commercial Building Energy Consumption in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Nan; Lin, Jiang

    2007-08-01

    While China's 11th Five Year Plan called for a reduction of energy intensity by 2010, whether and how the energy consumption trend can be changed in a short time has been hotly debated. This research intends to evaluate the impact of a variety of scenarios of GDP growth, energy elasticity and energy efficiency improvement on energy consumption in commercial buildings in China using a detailed China End-use Energy Model. China's official energy statistics have limited information on energy demand by end use. This is a particularly pertinent issue for building energy consumption. The authors have applied reasoned judgments, based on experience of working on Chinese efficiency standards and energy related programs, to present a realistic interpretation of the current energy data. The bottom-up approach allows detailed consideration of end use intensity, equipment efficiency, etc., thus facilitating assessment of potential impacts of specific policy and technology changes on building energy use. The results suggest that: (1) commercial energy consumption in China's current statistics is underestimated by about 44%, and the fuel mix is misleading; (2) energy efficiency improvements will not be sufficient to offset the strong increase in end-use penetration and intensity in commercial buildings; (3) energy intensity (particularly electricity) in commercial buildings will increase; (4) different GDP growth and elasticity scenarios could lead to a wide range of floor area growth trajectories , and therefore, significantly impact energy consumption in commercial buildings.

  6. NSON-DK energy system scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koivisto, Matti Juhani; Traber, Thure

    with a strong recovering of coal and crude oil prices, and a pronounced increase of CO2 prices from 2020. For the countries around the North Sea that are considered, the evolution of electricity demand is projected to be strongly impacted by aggressive energy efficiency policies that lead in total to stagnating...... of the century and replacing these capacities essentially with natural gas power plants. In Belgium, and Germany nuclear power plants are expected to be phased-out by 2035, with Sweden following this policy by 2050. Moreover, the economic outlook for nuclear in the other countries is also weak mainly due...... to pronounced competition from fluctuating renewable energies. In regard to wind energy, for Denmark it is suggested that onshore installations are not increased significantly after 2030. By contrast, a major increase in offshore wind energy is assumed. Corresponding with these offshore and onshore wind power...

  7. Energy and environment scenarios for Senegal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lazarus, M.; Diallo, S.; Sokona, Y.

    1994-01-01

    In this paper, the energy and environmental dimensions of several proposed energy strategies for Senegal are explored. An analytical framework to compare the energy and measurable environmental impacts of a set of scenarious is developed, and the limitations of the quantitative approach are discussed. It is found that policies to promote substitution of liquid petroleum gas (LPG) for charcoal use in households may actually reduce greenhouse gas emission, while also improving more important near-term environmental problems. Substitution of LPG for charcoal would not necessarily lead to a significant increase in Senegal's oil import bill, since other petroleum product usage will continue to dominate. Despite past industrial sector initiatives, considerable potential for energy efficiency investment remains, and presents additional opportunities for minimizing environmental impacts. (author). 33 refs, 9 figs, 4 tabs

  8. DGEMP-OE (2008) Energy Baseline Scenario. Synthesis report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    A 'Business as usual' or 'Baseline' scenario of energy trends to 2020-2030 is produced by France every four years, as requested by the International Energy Agency in order to update the global scenarios published in its World Energy Outlook. Since the most recent scenario of this type was drawn up in 2003-2004, the time has come to renew the effort for the IEA's next in-depth review of French energy policy. Specifically, the DGEMP seeks to predict the future of France's energy situation assuming that no policies or new measures are taken affecting (i.e. improving or deteriorating) the situation other than those already in place or adopted as of 1 January 2008 (in other words, before measures such as those stemming from the Grenelle Environment Forum). On the other hand, it is assumed that change in the energy system is guided by 'conventional wisdom' according to which political options and behaviours by economic units are expected to be 'reasonable'. As a result, even should its projections prove inappropriate, this cannot be considered a 'worst-case' scenario. Indeed, beyond the IEA, this scenario can be used to establish an MEA (Multilateral Environment Agreement) scenario (based on existing measures) for national communications submitted under the U.N. Climate Convention. The scenarios by the 'Energy' Commission, part of the Centre d'Analyse Strategique (CAS), could have been used, particularly since the consultant who worked with the CAS to develop its scenarios was also commissioned by the DGEMP. However, several considerations argued in favour of proceeding separately: - The CAS scenarios drew on the DGEMP's 2004 baseline scenario, even though certain parameters were updated (in particular energy prices). - Moreover, the concept underpinning the DGEMP baseline scenario is that it should to every extent possible remain constant over time to secure continued consensus on this 'reference' at national level. - Finally, the MEDEE energy demand model applied in

  9. Phasing out nuclear in Germany: scenarios of energy policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knopf, Brigitte; Pahle, Michael; Kondziella, Hendrik; Goetz, Mario; Bruckner, Thomas; Edenhofer, Ottmar; Stark, Hans; Rittelmeyer, Yann-Sven; Wissmann, Nele; Vitasse, Thomas

    2012-02-01

    After the German decision taken in 2011 to phase out nuclear, the authors analyse different scenarios of energy transition, and study the consequences of this phasing out in terms of energy needs provided by fossil fuel plants, of electricity price for households and for industries, and of CO 2 emissions. Independently from the development of renewable energies, the different effects of gas and coal plants replacing nuclear energy have been calculated and compared, and other possible scenarios have been explored. The author also discuss requirements in terms of governance for grid development, for a coordinated European policy of energy and climate, and for transparency and scientific follow-up

  10. Policy Means for Sustainable Energy Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meyer, Niels I; Nørgaard, Jørgen

    2011-01-01

    part of the climate change is due to emission of CO2 from the use of fossil fuels. For simplicity, this paper focuses on CO2 emission from fossil fuels, but CO2 from deforestation as well as methane (CH4), laughing gas (N2O) and a number of industrial greenhouse gases should be included in a more......, 2009) lacked sufficient concrete commitments for reduction of greenhouse gases (GHGs) after 2012 when the Kyoto Protocol expires. Human activities in their present form are strongly dependent on the supply of energy. A dominant part of the global energy supply is based on fossil fuels and a dominant...

  11. Nuclear power for energy security - Indian scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sinha, R.K.

    2013-01-01

    India has been witnessing an impressive growth in GDP in the face of several challenges including the fact that India has a population of over 1.2 billion. In order to provide and maintain a comfortable standard of living to our large population, as well as to sustain the national economic growth, it is essential to have a matching growth in the availability of energy. One such indicator is per capita electricity consumption, and for India, it is about 700 kWh which is far below that of the OECD countries (∼8000 kWh). Furthermore, India's population is expected to rise to about 1.5 billion by 2050. A per capita use of about 5000 kWh energy in the form of electricity every year would be needed for achieving a state of reasonably high development. This will require an installed electricity generation capacity exceeding 1300 GWe, which is slightly more than six times the existing installed electricity generation capacity of 210 GWe in India. Despite the fact that at present India is the fifth largest electricity generating country, India has to increase total electricity generation to almost 10 times the present generation level (about 875 billion kWh). It is against this backdrop, that we cannot afford to ignore any source of energy production including the nuclear option, since no single source alone, or not even a combination of only a couple of sources, can ever meet the entire energy needs of our country in a reliable and sustainable manner. (author)

  12. Scenario Analysis With Economic-Energy Systems Models Coupled to Simple Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, D. A.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Foster, I. T.; Franklin, M.; Zhu, E.; Patel, D. M.

    2008-12-01

    Here, we compare two scenarios based on Stanford University's Energy Modeling Forum Study 22 on global cooperative and non-cooperative climate policies. In the former, efficient transition paths are implemented including technology Research and Development effort, energy conservation programs, and price signals for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the non-cooperative case, some countries try to relax their regulations and be free riders. Total emissions and costs are higher in the non-cooperative scenario. The simulations, including climate impacts, run to the year 2100. We use the Argonne AMIGA-MARS economic-energy systems model, the Texas AM University's Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (FASOM), and the University of Illinois's Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM), with offline coupling between the FASOM and AMIGA-MARS and an online coupling between AMIGA-MARS and ISAM. This set of models captures the interaction of terrestrial systems, land use, crops and forests, climate change, human activity, and energy systems. Our scenario simulations represent dynamic paths over which all the climate, terrestrial, economic, and energy technology equations are solved simultaneously Special attention is paid to biofuels and how they interact with conventional gasoline/diesel fuel markets. Possible low-carbon penetration paths are based on estimated costs for new technologies, including cellulosic biomass, coal-to-liquids, plug-in electric vehicles, solar and nuclear energy. We explicitly explore key uncertainties that affect mitigation and adaptation scenarios.

  13. Long-term sequential monitoring of controlled graves representing common burial scenarios with ground penetrating radar: Years 2 and 3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, John J.; Walter, Brittany S.; Healy, Carrie

    2016-09-01

    Geophysical techniques such as ground-penetrating radar (GPR) have been successfully used for forensic searches to locate clandestine graves and physical evidence. However, additional controlled research is needed to fully understand the applicability of this technology when searching for clandestine graves in various environments, soil types, and for longer periods of time post-burial. The purpose of this study was to determine the applicability of GPR for detecting controlled graves in a Spodosol representing multiple burial scenarios for Years 2 and 3 of a three-year monitoring period. Objectives included determining how different burial scenarios are factors in producing a distinctive anomalous response; determining how different GPR imagery options (2D reflection profiles and horizontal time slices) can provide increased visibility of the burials; and comparing GPR imagery between 500 MHz and 250 MHz dominant frequency antennae. The research site contained a grid with eight graves representing common forensic burial scenarios in a Spodosol, a common soil type of Florida, with six graves containing a pig carcass (Sus scrofa). Burial scenarios with grave items (a deep grave with a layer of rocks over the carcass and a carcass wrapped in a tarpaulin) produced a more distinctive response with clearer target reflections over the duration of the monitoring period compared to naked carcasses. Months with increased precipitation were also found to produce clearer target reflections than drier months, particularly during Year 3 when many grave scenarios that were not previously visible became visible after increased seasonal rainfall. Overall, the 250 MHz dominant frequency antenna imagery was more favorable than the 500 MHz. While detection of a simulated grave may be difficult to detect over time, long term detection of a grave in a Spodosol may be possible if the disturbed spodic horizon is detected. Furthermore, while grave visibility increased with the 2D

  14. Nuclear power in future energy scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Srinivasan, M.R.

    1981-01-01

    It is explained that even when the renewable energy sources like solar, biogas and biomass are developed to the maximum feasible extent, they will only be able to sustain a marginal level of economic activity. In India demand for coal is expected to rise at some 6% per annum and that for oil at about 4% per annum. It is doubtful whether the coal production can be raised to meet the demand of 2000 million tonnes of coal by the turn of century. Steadily increasing cost of oil will make it difficult to procure the necessary quota of oil. The only way, therefore, for large-scale increase in electricity generation is to use nuclear energy. At present, it accounts for only 3% of the electricity produced in the country. It is shown that with implementation of a proper nuclear programme, 10,000 MW of nuclear power representing 15% of electricity produced by the year 2000 can be produced. Safety aspect of nuclear power is discussed and it is mentioned that scare on these grounds is not justifiable. Need for a national consensus on this issue is emphasised. (M.G.B.)

  15. Low carbon and clean energy scenarios for India: Analysis of targets approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shukla, Priyadarshi R.; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav

    2012-01-01

    Low carbon energy technologies are of increasing importance to India for reducing emissions and diversifying its energy supply mix. Using GCAM, an integrated assessment model, this paper analyzes a targets approach for pushing solar, wind, and nuclear technologies in the Indian electricity generation sector from 2005 to 2095. Targets for these technologies have been constructed on the basis of Indian government documents, policy announcements, and expert opinions. Different targets have been set for the reference scenario and the carbon price scenario. In the reference scenario, wind and nuclear technologies exceed respective targets in the long run without any subsidy push, while solar energy requires subsidy push throughout the century in order to meet its high targets. In the short run, nuclear energy also requires significant subsidy, including a much higher initial subsidy relative to solar power, which is a result of its higher targets. Under a carbon price scenario, the carbon price drives the penetration of these technologies. Still, subsidy is required — especially in the short run when the carbon price is low. We also found that pushing solar, wind, and nuclear technologies leads to a decrease in share of CCS under the carbon price scenario and biomass under both the reference and carbon price scenarios. This is because low carbon technologies compete among themselves and substitute each other, thereby enhancing the need for subsidy or carbon price, highlighting that proposed targets are not set at efficient levels. In light of contemporary debate on external costs of nuclear energy, we also assess the sensitivity of the results to nuclear technology cost. We find that higher cost significantly decreases the share of nuclear power under both the reference and carbon price scenarios.

  16. Sustainable energy prices and growth. Comparing macroeconomic and backcasting scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahlroth, Sofia; Hoejer, Mattias

    2007-01-01

    How do results from the sustainability research world of backcasting relate to the macroeconomic scenarios used for policy evaluation and planning? The answer is that they do not, mostly - they come from different scientific traditions and are not used in the same contexts. Yet they often deal with the same issues. We believe that much can be gained by bringing the two systems of thinking together. This paper is a first attempt to do so, by making qualitative comparisons between different scenarios and highlighting benefits and limitations to each of them. Why are the pictures we get of the energy future so different if we use a macroeconomic model from when using a backcasting approach based on sustainable energy use? It is evident that the methods for producing those two kinds of scenarios differ a lot, but the main reason behind the different results are found in the starting points rather than in the methods. Baseline assumptions are quite different, as well as the interpretations and importance attached to signals about the future. In this paper, it is discussed how those two types of scenarios differ and how they approach issues such as energy prices and growth. The discussion is based on a comparison between Swedish economic and sustainability scenarios. The economic scenarios aim at being forecasts of the future and are used as decision support for long-term policies. But are the assumptions in the economic scenarios reasonable? The sustainability scenarios are explicitly normative backcasting scenarios. They do not take the issue of growth and consumption fully into account. Could they be developed in this respect? The comparison between the scenarios is also used to look closer at the issue of energy prices in a society with sustainable energy use. One of the questions raised is if a low energy society calls for high energy prices. Moreover, the effects of tradable permits versus energy taxes is analysed in the context of how energy use could be kept low

  17. Energy technology perspectives - scenarios and strategies to 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-11-03

    At their 2005 summit in Gleneagles, G8 leaders confronted questions of energy security and supply and lowering of CO{sub 2} emissions and decided to act with resolve and urgency. They called upon the International Energy Agency to provide advice on scenarios and strategies for a clean and secure energy future. Energy Technology Perspectives is a response to the G8 request. This work demonstrates how energy technologies can make a difference in a series of global scenarios to 2050. It reviews in detail the status and prospects of key energy technologies in electricity generation, buildings, industry and transport. It assesses ways the world can enhance energy security and contain growth in CO{sub 2} emissions by using a portfolio of current and emerging technologies. Major strategic elements of a successful portfolio are energy efficiency, CO{sub 2} capture and storage, renewables and nuclear power. 110 figs., 4 annexes.

  18. Energy technology perspectives: scenarios and strategies to 2050 [Russian version

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-07-01

    At their 2005 summit in Gleneagles, G8 leaders confronted questions of energy security and supply and lowering of CO{sub 2} emissions and decided to act with resolve and urgency. They called upon the International Energy Agency to provide advice on scenarios and strategies for a clean and secure energy future. Energy Technology Perspectives is a response to the G8 request. This work demonstrates how energy technologies can make a difference in a series of global scenarios to 2050. It reviews in detail the status and prospects of key energy technologies in electricity generation, buildings, industry and transport. It assesses ways the world can enhance energy security and contain growth in CO{sub 2} emissions by using a portfolio of current and emerging technologies. Major strategic elements of a successful portfolio are energy efficiency, CO{sub 2} capture and storage, renewables and nuclear power. 110 figs., 4 annexes.

  19. Development and sustainability issues - energy scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kakodkar, Anil

    2000-01-01

    The 20th century has seen an unprecedented rise in the rate of consumption of material and energy resources. These patterns of growth and consumption have caused enormous strains on the available natural resources and the environment. Further, the benefits of available natural resources have been shared in a highly inequitable manner with a small fraction of mankind using up a large fraction of resources to a level that environmental concerns have become a global matter and are threatening to jeopardize the development of the larger fraction of humanity on grounds of global sustainability. While it has been seen that major achievements in almost all areas of human endeavour in recent times, enabling improvements in quality of life and better control over environmental degradation, there is a new challenge now of sustainability of the development process for the majority of human population. The environment with its large inertia, flexibility and stabilising mechanisms has so far some how copped up at least on a global scale with the unprecedented consumption. However, the recent trends indicate that most of the environment related cycles may not be able to take the continued abuse without disastrous global consequences. Piloting and sustaining the legitimate development of societies particularly those which are left far behind in the march towards better quality of life has, therefore, become a matter which needs very urgent consideration and action. There is thus a strong need for charting of a well deliberated goal oriented action plan with a vision that ensures due attention to the interests of all sections of society on the basis of their justifiable needs

  20. Future energy and emissions policy scenarios in Ireland for private car transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daly, Hannah E.; Ó Gallachóir, Brian P.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we use a technological model of Ireland's future car stock to simulate the impact of a range of policy measures on the baseline trend in energy demand in the period to 2030. The policies and measures modelled comprise meeting deployment targets for electric vehicles and compressed natural gas vehicles, an EU regulation for the improvement of vehicle efficiency, implementation of a national biofuel obligation, as well as several behavioural measures (encouraging modal shifting and reduced travel demand). The impact of the different measures simulated is measured in terms of their contribution to meeting Ireland's ambitious targets for energy savings, for renewable energy penetration and for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions. The results point to a possible improvement of 32% in car stock efficiency, the achievement of 7.8% renewable energy share of road and rail transport and a 22% reduction in non-ETS private car CO 2 emissions relative to 2009 levels. A scenario analysis on meeting the EV penetration target shows a significant range of CO 2 emissions reductions depending on the cars (and mileage) displaced and on the electricity generation portfolio. - Highlights: ► Private car policy scenarios for Ireland modelled. ► Impact of vehicle efficiency, fuel switching and behavioural measures evaluated. ► Highlights distance to EU non-ETS emissions and renewable energy targets. ► Analysis of EV target shows that GHG mitigation potential is very sensitive.

  1. Energy perspectives 2035 - Volume 2, scenarios I to IV

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirchner, A.

    2007-01-01

    This comprehensive report published by the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) takes a look at the four scenarios concerning future developments in Swiss energy supply policy. The four complex scenarios include variants entitled 'business as usual', 'increased co-operation', 'new priorities' and 'on the way to a 2000-Watt society'. These scenarios deal with the development of energy demand and electricity offerings in Switzerland for the period 1990 to 2035. They are reviewed in the light of various sensitivity factors. These sensitivity factors include a high GDP, oil prices of 50 US-dollars per barrel and a warmer climate. The report presents the results of the model calculations made. First of all, the report takes a look at the motivation and aims behind the work and discusses the modelling methods, system limits and conventions used and the possibilities offered by the perspectives as well as the limits encountered. The four scenarios are then presented and discussed in detail. Implementation variants in the private, services, industrial and traffic sectors are discussed and various electricity supply variants are presented, as are the associated environmental issues involved. The scenarios are compared with each other and pricing and security of supply issues are discussed. Finally, a short synopsis of the scenarios is presented and decision criteria are discussed as are implementation instruments. Ethical dilemmas and the risks involved are noted

  2. Scenarios for a urban energy transition. Actors, regulations, technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Debizet, Gilles; Blanco, Sylvie; Buclet, Nicolas; Forest, Fabrice; Gauthier, Caroline; La Branche, Stephane; Menanteau, Philippe; Schneuwly, Patrice; Tabourdeau, Antoine

    2016-01-01

    Cities concentrate populations, consumptions, levers of actions, and are places of various experiments for energy transition. This book aims at giving an overview of possible scenarios of development of renewable energies in urban context. It is based on interviews of actors of the energy, building and urban planning sectors by researchers in town planning, management, technology, political and economic sciences. The authors examine what would occur if large companies would manage entire quarters, if local authorities would supervise production and supply, if the State would take control of all fields of action again, or if consumer cooperatives would exchange energy and pool productions. In its different chapters, the book presents four scenarios of energy coordination in urban context by 2040, discuss energy transition in urban spaces, discuss the perspectives of evolution towards more autonomous cities and quarters from an energetic point of view, and discuss business models and urban energetic innovations

  3. The market penetration of energy-efficiency programs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berry, L.

    1990-04-01

    The focus of this report is on one source of resource planning uncertainty: the expected market penetration of DSM (Demand Site Management) programs. Its purpose is to help refine planning assumptions and reduce uncertainty about the market penetration of utility DSM programs by: (1) investigating concepts and definitions of market penetration, (2) reviewing data that characterize patterns of variation (including ranges, averages and maximum levels) in program participation rates, (3) identifying the factors that affect participation, and (4) reviewing the structure and data requirements of models that forecast market penetration. 84 refs., 14 figs., 16 tabs.

  4. The use of physical indicators for industrial energy demand scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schenk, Niels J.; Moll, Henri C.

    2007-01-01

    Scientific information on the size and nature of the threat of climate change is needed by politicians in order to weight their decisions. Computerised models are extremely useful tools to quantify the long-term effects of current policies. This paper describes a new modelling approach that allows formulation of industrial energy demand projections consistent with the assumptions for scenario drivers such as GDP and population. In the model, a level of industrial production is used as a key variable, and we define it in physical units, rather than in monetary units. The aim of this research is to increase insights that come with long-term energy demand scenarios. This research clearly shows that physical indicators provide additional insights in scenario analysis. The use of physical indicators instead of monetary indicators seems to affect the energy scenarios significantly. The differences with monetary indicators are larger in developing regions than in OECD regions. We conclude that an integrated energy and materials approach reveals developments that are hardly visible using a monetary approach. Moreover, this research shows the potential and benefits of the use of physical indicators for scenario development. (author)

  5. Energy utilities and environment-related energy services in the year 2008. Scenario study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1999-05-01

    Insight is given into of the developments in the sector energy distribution companies and the consequences for the demand for energy services. Next, an overview is given of which energy services should be developed to meet the changed needs of the market. Three scenarios have been set up and are discussed in this brochure: (1) a Steady State scenario (unchanged policy of energy distribution companies); (2) Alliance scenario (strategic cooperation between energy distribution companies and retailers and installation businesses); and (3) Autonomous Development scenario (energy distribution companies develop and offer new services)

  6. Energy scenarios for the nordic region towards 2035

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fidje, Audun

    2008-07-01

    This report summarizes the assumptions, methodology and main results of the MARKAL analysis of options for a sustainable energy future in the Nordic region. The work is based on the Nordic MARKAL model, which has been modified such that it may be used to analyse a large number of scenarios, typically 500 to 5000. The scenarios are developed by analysis a set of strategies and uncertainties. All these strategies and uncertainties are combined such that we generate in total 1 152 scenarios. The main purpose of generating a large number of scenarios was to facilitate for multi-criteria trade-off analysis. Overall results from this analysis show that large reductions of CO{sub 2} emissions are possible at CO{sub 2} cost below 50 EUR/t CO{sub 2} (author)

  7. Security of energy supply: Comparing scenarios from a European perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costantini, V.; Markandya, A.; Vicini, G.

    2007-01-01

    This policy compares different results from a set of energy scenarios produced by international energy experts, in order to analyse projections on increasing European external energy dependence and vulnerability. Comparison among different scenarios constitutes the basis of a critical review of existing energy security policies, suggesting alternative or complementary future actions. According to the analysis, the main risks and negative impacts in the long term could be the increasing risk of collusion among exporters due to growing dependence of industrialized countries and insufficient diversification; and a risk of demand/supply imbalance, with consequent instability for exporting regions due to insufficient demand, and lack of infrastructures due to insufficient supply. Cooperation with exporting countries enhancing investments in production capacity, and with developing countries in order to reinforce negotiation capacity of energy-importing countries seem to be the most effective policies at international level. (author)

  8. Security of energy supply: Comparing scenarios from a European perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costantini, Valeria; Gracceva, Francesco; Markandya, Anil; Vicini, Giorgio

    2007-01-01

    This paper compares different results from a set of energy scenarios produced by international energy experts, in order to analyse projections on increasing European external energy dependence and vulnerability. Comparison among different scenarios constitutes the basis of a critical review of existing energy security policies, suggesting alternative or complementary future actions. According to the analysis, the main risks and negative impacts in the long term could be the increasing risk of collusion among exporters due to growing dependence of industrialized countries and insufficient diversification; and a risk of demand/supply imbalance, with consequent instability for exporting regions due to insufficient demand, and lack of infrastructures due to insufficient supply. Cooperation with exporting countries enhancing investments in production capacity, and with developing countries in order to reinforce negotiation capacity of energy-importing countries seem to be the most effective policies at international level

  9. Multi-region optimal deployment of renewable energy considering different interregional transmission scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Ge; Zhang, Qi; Mclellan, Benjamin C.; Li, Hailong

    2016-01-01

    Renewable energy is expected to play much more important role in future low-carbon energy system, however, renewable energy has problems with regard to load-following and regional imbalance. This study aims to plan the deployment of intermittent renewable energy in multiple regions considering the impacts of regional natural conditions and generation capacity mix as well as interregional transmission capacity using a multi-region dynamic optimization model. The model was developed to find optimized development paths toward future smart electricity systems with high level penetration of intermittent renewable energy considering regional differences and interregional transmission at national scale. As a case study, the model was applied to plan power generation in nine interconnected regions in Japan out to 2030. Four scenarios were proposed with different supporting policies for the interregional power transmission infrastructures and different nuclear power phase-out scenarios. The analysis results show that (i) the government's support for power transmission infrastructures is vital important to develop more intermittent renewable energy in appropriate regions and utilize renewable energy more efficiently; (ii) nuclear and renewable can complement rather than replace each other if enough interregional transmission capacity is provided. - Highlights: • Plan the optimal deployment of intermittent renewable energy in multiple regions. • A multi-region dynamic optimization model was developed. • The impacts of natural conditions and interregional transmission are studied. • The government's support for transmission is vital important for renewable energy. • Nuclear and renewable can complement rather than replace each other.

  10. Energy savings in drastic climate change policy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Isoard, Stephane; Wiesenthal, Tobias

    2005-01-01

    This paper reports a climate change policy scenario compatible with long-term sustainable objectives set at EU level (6th Environment Action Plan). By setting ambitious targets for GHG emissions reduction by 2030, this normative scenario relies on market-based instruments and flexible mechanisms. The integrated policy that is simulated (i.e. addressing energy, transport, agriculture and environmental impacts) constitutes a key outlook for the next 5-year report of the European Environment Agency (EEA). This scenario highlights what it would take to drastically curb EU GHG emissions and how much it might cost. The findings show that such a 'deep reduction' climate policy could work as a powerful catalyst for (1) substantial energy savings, and (2) promoting sustainable energy systems in the long term. The implications of this policy lever on the energy system are many-fold indeed, e.g. a substantial limitation of total energy demand or significant shifts towards energy and environment-friendly technologies on the supply side. Clear and transparent price signals, which are associated with market-based instruments, appear to be a key factor ensuring sufficient visibility for capital investment in energy efficient and environment-friendly options. Finally it is suggested that market-based policy options, which are prone to lead to win-win situations and are of particular interest from an integrated policy-making perspective, would also significantly benefit from an enhanced energy policy framework

  11. Energy scenario analysis Enova-IFE; Energiscenarioanalyser Enova-IFE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosenberg, Eva; Espegren, Kari Aamodt

    2009-11-15

    Institute for Energy Technology has made a projection of energy use in stationary sector of Norway up to 2050 and by the use of the Norwegian MARKAL model analyzed various scenarios. Total increase demand in stationary sectors by 6 TWh, or 4% to 2020 and by 29 TWh or 16% for 2050, which increase primarily comes in the buildings. Scenarios are analyzed to show the long-term potential given the various operating parameters. An important scenario that is analyzed, the fulfillment of renewable directive. In 2005, the renewable share in Norway about 61%. In the analysis it is assumed that the renewable share to be 75% as of 2020. Implementation of energy efficiency will have a crucial role to increase the renewable share, and efficiency contributes with 26 TWh in the base scenario. What percentage of energy efficiency measures are really implemented will have a great impact on how much renewable electricity to be produced, or how much more bio-energy that must be used, in order to achieve the goal of renewable directive. (AG)

  12. Energy Storage Requirements for Achieving 50% Solar Photovoltaic Energy Penetration in California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denholm, Paul; Margolis, Robert

    2016-08-01

    We estimate the storage required to enable PV penetration up to 50% in California (with renewable penetration over 66%), and we quantify the complex relationships among storage, PV penetration, grid flexibility, and PV costs due to increased curtailment. We find that the storage needed depends strongly on the amount of other flexibility resources deployed. With very low-cost PV (three cents per kilowatt-hour) and a highly flexible electric power system, about 19 gigawatts of energy storage could enable 50% PV penetration with a marginal net PV levelized cost of energy (LCOE) comparable to the variable costs of future combined-cycle gas generators under carbon constraints. This system requires extensive use of flexible generation, transmission, demand response, and electrifying one quarter of the vehicle fleet in California with largely optimized charging. A less flexible system, or more expensive PV would require significantly greater amounts of storage. The amount of storage needed to support very large amounts of PV might fit within a least-cost framework driven by declining storage costs and reduced storage-duration needs due to high PV penetration.

  13. Italian energy scenarios comparative evaluations; Scenari energetici italiani a confronto

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Contaldi, Mario [Agenzia per la Protezione dell' Ambiente e per i Servizi Tecnici-APAT, Roma (Italy)

    2005-09-15

    This paper reviews some representative scenarios of the evolution of the Italian primary energy consumption, updated recently. After an overview of the main macroeconomics assumptions the scenario results are cross checked at sectorial level, with a brief discussion of the underlining data and energy intensity trends. The emissions of CO{sub 2}, SO{sub 2} and NO{sub x} resulting from the considered scenarios are also reported and discussed. [Italian] Questo articolo riporta alcuni dei piu rappresentativi ed aggiornati scenari di evoluzione dei consumi energetici primari italiani. Dopo un esame delle principali variabili macroeconomiche i risultati degli scenari sono esaminati a livello di settore, con una breve discussione delle principali variabili utilizzate. Infine sono state anche esaminate le emissioni di CO{sub 2}, SO{sub 2} e NO{sub x} risultanti dai diversi scenari e le possibili conseguenze sul piano normativo.

  14. Pakistan energy consumption scenario and some alternate energy option

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maher, M.J.

    1997-01-01

    Pakistan with its energy-deficient resources is highly dependent on import-oriented energy affected the economy because of repeated energy price hike on international horizon. The energy consumption pattern in Pakistan comprises about two-third in commercial energy and one-third in non-commercial forms. Most of the country's energy requirements are met by oil, gas hydro power, coal, nuclear energy and thermal power. Pakistan meets it's commercial energy requirements indigenously up to 64%. The balance of deficit of 35-40% is met through import. The consumption of various agro-residues and wood as fuel also plays a vital role. The analysis shows that emphasis needs to be placed on new and renewable resources of energy besides adopting technologies for energy conservation. Renewable energy depends on energy income and constitutes the development process. The are several renewable energy options such as biogas technology, micro-hydro power generation, direct solar energy and biomass energy conservation etc. By improving the conservation techniques as designs of solar converters, pre treating the biomass fuel, increasing the effectiveness of carbonization and pyrolysis increases the energy production. (A.B.)

  15. Agriculture energy prospective by 2030: scenarios and action patterns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents and comments the main results of a work-group focused on the evolution of agriculture in France in relationship with the new energetic context. Four scenarios have been defined, corresponding to different energetic, but also social, political and economic contexts by 2030. The first one corresponds to a severe energy crisis with an emergence of regional governance. The second one corresponds to a high volatility of energy prices, an increased easing of restrictions on trade, and a decrease of public supports and subsidies for agriculture. The third one corresponds to a strong reduction of the use of phyto-sanitary products in agriculture, a continuous urban sprawl, and the prevalence of road transport. The fourth one corresponds to agriculture respectful of the environment and a good management of energy consumption. Direct and indirect energy consumptions are assessed for the four scenarios. Some general and operational objectives are thus identified

  16. Effects of stochastic energy prices on long-term energy-economic scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krey, Volker; Martinsen, Dag; Wagner, Hermann-Josef

    2007-01-01

    In view of the currently observed energy prices, recent price scenarios, which have been very moderate until 2004, also tend to favor high future energy prices. Having a large impact on energy-economic scenarios, we incorporate uncertain energy prices into an energy systems model by including a stochastic risk function. Energy systems models are frequently used to aid scenario analysis in energy-related studies. The impact of uncertain energy prices on the supply structures and the interaction with measures in the demand sectors is the focus of the present paper. For the illustration of the methodological approach, scenarios for four EU countries are presented. Including the stochastic risk function, elements of high energy price scenarios can be found in scenarios with a moderate future development of energy prices. In contrast to scenarios with stochastic investment costs for a limited number of technologies, the inclusion of stochastic energy prices directly affects all parts of the energy system. Robust elements of hedging strategies include increasing utilization of domestic energy carriers, the use of CHP and district heat and the application of additional energy-saving measures in the end-use sectors. Region-specific technology portfolios, i.e., different hedging options, can cause growing energy exchange between the regions in comparison with the deterministic case. (author)

  17. European Climate - Energy Security Nexus. A model based scenario analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Criqui, Patrick; Mima, Silvana

    2011-01-01

    In this research, we have provided an overview of the climate-security nexus in the European sector through a model based scenario analysis with POLES model. The analysis underline that under stringent climate policies, Europe take advantage of a double dividend in its capacity to develop a new cleaner energy model and in lower vulnerability to potential shocks on the international energy markets. (authors)

  18. Kyoto Protocol Objectives in Croatia Energy Planning: Nuclear Scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duic, N.; Bogdan, Z.; Juretic, F.; Zeljko, M.

    2002-01-01

    Croatia as an Annex I country of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and a country that has pledged in the Annex B of the Kyoto Protocol to reduce its greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions by 5% from the pre-transition level by the budget period 2008-12, will have to envisage a new energy strategy. Compared to the energy consumption collapse in some transitional countries like Russia and Ukraine, Croatia has passed through a relatively limited long term reduction of GHG emissions since 1990 because of higher efficiency of its pre-transition economy. It is expected that in case of business as usual scenario it will breach the Kyoto target in 2003 since the demand for energy will be high, especially as the income continues to rise, particularly in domestic use for heating, for transport and for electricity generation. Several scenarios of developing energy system are compared from the point of view of GHG emissions. The energy sector that will most probably be the most influenced by the UNFCCC objectives is electricity generation. Several scenarios are compared. The cost-effective scenario expects a mixture of coal and gas fired power plants to be built to satisfy the new demand and to replace the old power plants that are being decommissioned. More Kyoto friendly scenario envisages the construction of mostly nuclear power plants in the future, while decommissioning the old ones as planned, and is compared to the others from the GHG emissions point of view. The conclusion is that by measures tackling only electricity generation it will not be possible to keep GHG emission under the Kyoto target level, but that choosing the nuclear option might reduce significantly the cost of compliance. (author)

  19. Emissions reduction scenarios in the Argentinean Energy Sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Di Sbroiavacca, Nicolás; Nadal, Gustavo; Lallana, Francisco; Falzon, James; Calvin, Katherine

    2016-01-01

    In this paper the LEAP, TIAM-ECN, and GCAM models were applied to evaluate the impact of a variety of climate change control policies (including carbon pricing and emission constraints relative to a base year) on primary energy consumption, final energy consumption, electricity sector development, and CO_2 emission savings of the energy sector in Argentina over the 2010–2050 period. The LEAP model results indicate that if Argentina fully implements the most feasible mitigation measures currently under consideration by official bodies and key academic institutions on energy supply and demand, such as the ProBiomass program, a cumulative incremental economic cost of 22.8 billion US$(2005) to 2050 is expected, resulting in a 16% reduction in GHG emissions compared to a business-as-usual scenario. These measures also bring economic co-benefits, such as a reduction of energy imports improving the balance of trade. A Low CO_2 price scenario in LEAP results in the replacement of coal by nuclear and wind energy in electricity expansion. A High CO_2 price leverages additional investments in hydropower. By way of cross-model comparison with the TIAM-ECN and GCAM global integrated assessment models, significant variation in projected emissions reductions in the carbon price scenarios was observed, which illustrates the inherent uncertainties associated with such long-term projections. These models predict approximately 37% and 94% reductions under the High CO_2 price scenario, respectively. By comparison, the LEAP model, using an approach based on the assessment of a limited set of mitigation options, predicts an 11.3% reduction. The main reasons for this difference include varying assumptions about technology cost and availability, CO_2 storage capacity, and the ability to import bioenergy. An emission cap scenario (2050 emissions 20% lower than 2010 emissions) is feasible by including such measures as CCS and Bio CCS, but at a significant cost. In terms of technology

  20. A renewable energy and hydrogen scenario for northern Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Bent

    2008-01-01

    renewable energy supply system is demonstrated with the use of the seasonal reservoir-based hydrocomponents in the northern parts of the region. The outcome of the competition between biofuels and hydrogen in the transportation sector is dependent on the development of viable fuel cells and on efficient......A scenario based entirely on renewable energy with possible use of hydrogen as an energy carrier is constructed for a group of North European countries. Temporal simulation of the demand-supply matching is carried out for various system configurations. The role of hydrogen technologies for energy...... of energy trade between the countries, due to the different endowments of different countries with particular renewable energy sources, and to the particular benefit that intermittent energy sources, such as wind and solar, can derive from exchange of power. The establishment of a smoothly functioning...

  1. Scenarios of energy demand and efficiency potential for Bulgaria

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tzvetanov, P.; Ruicheva, M.; Denisiev, M.

    1996-12-31

    The paper presents aggregated results on macroeconomic and final energy demand scenarios developed within the Bulgarian Country Study on Greenhouse Gas Emissions Mitigation, supported by US Country Studies Program. The studies in this area cover 5 main stages: (1) {open_quotes}Baseline{close_quotes} and {open_quotes}Energy Efficiency{close_quotes} socioeconomic and energy policy philosophy; (2) Modeling of macroeconomic and sectoral development till 2020; (3) Expert assessments on the technological options for energy efficiency increase and GHG mitigation in the Production, Transport and Households and Services Sectors; (4) Bottom-up modeling of final energy demand; and (5) Sectoral and overall energy efficiency potential and policy. Within the Bulgarian Country Study, the presented results have served as a basis for the final integration stage {open_quotes}Assessment of the Mitigation Policy and Measures in the Energy System of Bulgaria{close_quotes}.

  2. Agriculture energy prospective by 2030: scenarios and action patterns; Prospective Agriculture Energie 2030: scenarios et pistes d'action

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-07-01

    This paper presents and comments the main results of a work-group focused on the evolution of agriculture in France in relationship with the new energetic context. Four scenarios have been defined, corresponding to different energetic, but also social, political and economic contexts by 2030. The first one corresponds to a severe energy crisis with an emergence of regional governance. The second one corresponds to a high volatility of energy prices, an increased easing of restrictions on trade, and a decrease of public supports and subsidies for agriculture. The third one corresponds to a strong reduction of the use of phyto-sanitary products in agriculture, a continuous urban sprawl, and the prevalence of road transport. The fourth one corresponds to agriculture respectful of the environment and a good management of energy consumption. Direct and indirect energy consumptions are assessed for the four scenarios. Some general and operational objectives are thus identified

  3. A quantitative analysis of aerosols inside an armored vehicle perforated by a kinetic energy penetrator containing tungsten, nickel, and cobalt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gold, Kenneth; Cheng, Yung Sung; Holmes, Thomas D

    2007-04-01

    These tests were conducted to develop a database that could be used to assess risks to soldiers from exposure to aerosolized metallic particulates when the crew compartment of an Abrams tank is perforated by a kinetic energy penetrator. Quantitative data are reported for aerosols produced by kinetic energy penetrators containing tungsten, nickel, and cobalt. The following are addressed: (1) concentrations and rates of particle settling inside the vehicle, (2) particle size distribution, (3) inhalable and respirable particulates, (4) distribution of aerosol particles by mass, and (5) particle shapes. The scenario described in this report simulates a rare occurrence. The lessons learned, however, highlight a requirement for developing protocols for analyses of metals in body fluids and urine as soon as practical, and also for implementing targeted postdeployment medical surveillance programs that monitor both body burden for respired metals and pulmonary function.

  4. Scenario simulation based assessment of subsurface energy storage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beyer, C.; Bauer, S.; Dahmke, A.

    2014-12-01

    Energy production from renewable sources such as solar or wind power is characterized by temporally varying power supply. The politically intended transition towards renewable energies in Germany („Energiewende") hence requires the installation of energy storage technologies to compensate for the fluctuating production. In this context, subsurface energy storage represents a viable option due to large potential storage capacities and the wide prevalence of suited geological formations. Technologies for subsurface energy storage comprise cavern or deep porous media storage of synthetic hydrogen or methane from electrolysis and methanization, or compressed air, as well as heat storage in shallow or moderately deep porous formations. Pressure build-up, fluid displacement or temperature changes induced by such operations may affect local and regional groundwater flow, geomechanical behavior, groundwater geochemistry and microbiology. Moreover, subsurface energy storage may interact and possibly be in conflict with other "uses" like drinking water abstraction or ecological goods and functions. An utilization of the subsurface for energy storage therefore requires an adequate system and process understanding for the evaluation and assessment of possible impacts of specific storage operations on other types of subsurface use, the affected environment and protected entities. This contribution presents the framework of the ANGUS+ project, in which tools and methods are developed for these types of assessments. Synthetic but still realistic scenarios of geological energy storage are derived and parameterized for representative North German storage sites by data acquisition and evaluation, and experimental work. Coupled numerical hydraulic, thermal, mechanical and reactive transport (THMC) simulation tools are developed and applied to simulate the energy storage and subsurface usage scenarios, which are analyzed for an assessment and generalization of the imposed THMC

  5. A scenario analysis of future energy systems based on an energy flow model represented as functionals of technology options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kikuchi, Yasunori; Kimura, Seiichiro; Okamoto, Yoshitaka; Koyama, Michihisa

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Energy flow model was represented as the functionals of technology options. • Relationships among available technologies can be visualized by developed model. • Technology roadmapping can be incorporated into the model as technical scenario. • Combination of technologies can increase their contribution to the environment. - Abstract: The design of energy systems has become an issue all over the world. A single optimal system cannot be suggested because the availability of infrastructure and resources and the acceptability of the system should be discussed locally, involving all related stakeholders in the energy system. In particular, researchers and engineers of technologies related to energy systems should be able to perform the forecasting and roadmapping of future energy systems and indicate quantitative results of scenario analyses. We report an energy flow model developed for analysing scenarios of future Japanese energy systems implementing a variety of feasible technology options. The model was modularized and represented as functionals of appropriate technology options, which enables the aggregation and disaggregation of energy systems by defining functionals for single technologies, packages integrating multi-technologies, and mini-systems such as regions implementing industrial symbiosis. Based on the model, the combinations of technologies on both energy supply and demand sides can be addressed considering not only the societal scenarios such as resource prices, economic growth and population change but also the technical scenarios including the development and penetration of energy-related technologies such as distributed solid oxide fuel cells in residential sectors and new-generation vehicles, and the replacement and shift of current technologies such as heat pumps for air conditioning and centralized power generation. The developed model consists of two main modules; namely, a power generation dispatching module for the

  6. Experience 2030. Four scenarios for the energy sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aarts, P.; Breunesse, L.; Duijm, K.; Van Empel, F.; Van Erp, J.; Van Huffelen, A.; Veenstra, J.; Visser, H.; Sicking, C.; Bloemendaal, R.

    2003-01-01

    In four days several experts in the field of energy participated in a brainstorm session to discuss the future and the consequences for our energy supply and demand, energy sources and technology. In this book four scenarios are presented: (1) Voluntary Simplicity, characterized by austerity and solidarity; (2) Hyper Individualism, characterized by competitive activities for as much prosperity as possible; (3) Haves and Have-nots, based on geopolitical instability and a strong technological development, resulting even beyond a wider gap between rich and poor; and (4) Tribal Society, dominated by fear, distrust and less prosperity [nl

  7. Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pérez-Soba, Marta; Maas, Rob

    2015-01-01

    We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

  8. Scenarios for energy forecasting: papers of the symposium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-01-01

    Energy planning is important for every developed country and therefore also for South Africa. However, during 1984 it was felt by interested parties that the work in this field should be coordinated through mutual discussion. With this in mind a 'Task Team for Energy Forecasting' was formed with the task to generate acceptable forecasts of the energy set-up in South Africa. Knowledge of the relationship between energy and variables such as the economy and the population is necessary to the Task Team. However, the Task Team also needs some insight into the future paths of such variables if it has to generate energy forecasts. It is the purpose of this symposium to improve this insight through having experts in all relevant fields to set out and develop their possible future scenarios independently of energy forecasting

  9. Technology learning for renewable energy: Implications for South Africa's long-term mitigation scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winkler, Harald; Hughes, Alison; Haw, Mary

    2009-01-01

    Technology learning can make a significant difference to renewable energy as a mitigation option in South Africa's electricity sector. This article considers scenarios implemented in a Markal energy model used for mitigation analysis. It outlines the empirical evidence that unit costs of renewable energy technologies decline, considers the theoretical background and how this can be implemented in modeling. Two scenarios are modelled, assuming 27% and 50% of renewable electricity by 2050, respectively. The results show a dramatic shift in the mitigation costs. In the less ambitious scenario, instead of imposing a cost of Rand 52/t CO 2 -eq (at 10% discount rate), reduced costs due to technology learning turn renewables into negative cost option. Our results show that technology learning flips the costs, saving R143. At higher penetration rate, the incremental costs added beyond the base case decline from R92 per ton to R3. Including assumptions about technology learning turns renewable from a higher-cost mitigation option to one close to zero. We conclude that a future world in which global investment in renewables drives down unit costs makes it a much more cost-effective and sustainable mitigation option in South Africa.

  10. Scenario sketches for Nordic H{sub 2} Energy introduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eriksson, E.A. [FOI Defence Analysis, Stockholm (Sweden)

    2003-12-01

    This report departs from a set of external scenarios setting the context for a Nordic H2 energy introduction, and a set of H2 related socio-technical visions, amended and assessed by an expert workshop (Stockholm, August 2003). Based on this it attempts to outline a Nordic policy strategy aiming at as internationally leading a position in H2 energy as reasonable under different external conditions. Then this putative policy commitment is set against the nine context scenarios (three alternative stage-setting developments in the 2003-15 time frame and for each of these three alternative, more specifically energy-relevant developments for 2015-30). The result is that the prospects for H2 energy introduction differ widely across future developments. However, a policy strategy that combines RTD centres of excellence and large-scale socio-technical experimentation (e.g., demos and pilots) with polices that stimulate entrepreneurs to exploit niche markets and technology foresight and the like, not least to achieve bottom-up coordination. While strong policy interventions for H2 energy are conceivable under certain sets of external conditions, more typically it will have to win out in some type of competition. Therefore it is important that energy innovation policies be reasonably unbiased with respect to different energy forms rather than trying to prematurely pick winners. (au)

  11. Climate and Water Vulnerability of the US Electricity Grid Under High Penetrations of Renewable Energy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macknick, J.; Miara, A.; O'Connell, M.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Newmark, R. L.

    2017-12-01

    The US power sector is highly dependent upon water resources for reliable operations, primarily for thermoelectric cooling and hydropower technologies. Changes in the availability and temperature of water resources can limit electricity generation and cause outages at power plants, which substantially affect grid-level operational decisions. While the effects of water variability and climate changes on individual power plants are well documented, prior studies have not identified the significance of these impacts at the regional systems-level at which the grid operates, including whether there are risks for large-scale blackouts, brownouts, or increases in production costs. Adequately assessing electric grid system-level impacts requires detailed power sector modeling tools that can incorporate electric transmission infrastructure, capacity reserves, and other grid characteristics. Here, we present for the first time, a study of how climate and water variability affect operations of the power sector, considering different electricity sector configurations (low vs. high renewable) and environmental regulations. We use a case study of the US Eastern Interconnection, building off the Eastern Renewable Generation Integration Study (ERGIS) that explored operational challenges of high penetrations of renewable energy on the grid. We evaluate climate-water constraints on individual power plants, using the Thermoelectric Power and Thermal Pollution (TP2M) model coupled with the PLEXOS electricity production cost model, in the context of broader electricity grid operations. Using a five minute time step for future years, we analyze scenarios of 10% to 30% renewable energy penetration along with considerations of river temperature regulations to compare the cost, performance, and reliability tradeoffs of water-dependent thermoelectric generation and variable renewable energy technologies under climate stresses. This work provides novel insights into the resilience and

  12. Capacity Payments in Restructured Markets under Low and High Penetration Levels of Renewable Energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jenkin, Thomas [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Beiter, Philipp [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Margolis, Robert [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2016-02-11

    There is considerable debate about the degree to which restructured markets perform successfully in their use of capacity markets. In providing appropriate incentives for new and existing generation to meet reliability requirements, a variety of capacity market designs have developed across RTOs and ISOs in the United States and internationally. Growing levels of variable renewable energy (VRE) resources arguably create new challenges for capacity market designs, because VREs suppress energy prices while providing relatively little capacity, with these effects increase with VRE penetration. The purpose of this report is threefold. First, we provide a brief outline of the purpose and design of various capacity markets under consideration using variable resource requirement (VRR) demand curves. Second, we discuss some of the main challenges raised in existing literature and a set of interviews that we conducted with market participants, regulators, and observers, including where there substantive differences in opinion. Third, we consider some of the challenges that may be specific to higher penetration levels of VRE. While the well known 'merit order' effect from VRE can be expected to suppress wholesale energy prices and revenue, this may be partly mitigated by increased capacity payments and the greater importance of AS payments for flexible capacity. The potential for greater reliance on capacity markets for generator revenues may amplify any inefficiency and costs associated with capacity price volatility and other suboptimal market design choices. Regulatory intervention to ensure adequate capacity payments and ancillary service revenue may become more prevalent under current market designs as the timescale for market signals shifts increasingly from near term (e.g., day-ahead in wholesale electricity markets) to longer term (annual intervals in capacity markets). Our review and discussion with market participants suggest substantive challenges may

  13. Increasing RES Penetration and Security of Energy Supply by Use of Energy Storages and Heat Pumps in Croatian Energy System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krajačić, Goran; Mathiesen, Brian Vad; Duić, Neven

    2010-01-01

    electricity, heat and transport demands, and including renewable energy, power plants, and combined heat and power production (CHP) for district heating. Using the 2007 energy system the wind power share is increased by two energy storage options: Pumped hydro and heat pumps in combination with heat storages....... The results show that such options can enable an increased penetration of wind power. Using pumped hydro storage (PHS) may increase wind power penetration from 0.5 TWh, for existing PHS installations and up to 6 TWh for very large installations. Using large heat pumps and heat storages in combination...... with specific regulation of power system could additionally increase wind penetration for 0.37 TWh. Hence, with the current technologies installed in the Croatian energy system the installed pumped hydro-plant may facilitate more than 10% wind power in the electricity system. Large-scale integration of wind...

  14. Energy and the Presidential elections: deciphering reports and scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marignac, Yves; Dessus, Benjamin; Laponche, Bernard; Ruedinger, Andreas; Marquet, Andre; Zerbib, Jean-Claude; Quetel, Ghislain; Guillemette, Andre

    2012-03-01

    After a comment of the Fukushima accident and its implications for nuclear energy, this issue proposes a critical review of various reports and scenarios on energy perspectives: a report by the ASN on 'Complementary safety assessments' (critical analysis of these assessments, weaknesses of the ASN analysis), a report by the French Court of Audit or 'Cour des Comptes' (past, current and future expenses, assets), the Commission Energies 2050 study (on the Europeans and world energy context, on the future on the French energy mix), a study by the French Union of Electricity (Electricity 2030: which choices for France?), a note by the CEA on the assessment of phasing out nuclear. Additional contributions propose a discussion of costs and conditions of phasing out nuclear, and a presentation of La Hague pools (their design, their management, their ability to withstand earthquakes, their other safety criteria)

  15. Energy scenario - environmental concerns and some options for the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Venkat Raj, V.; Saradhi, I.V.

    2002-01-01

    There is a strong link between energy consumption, particularly in the form of electricity, and economic well being. The substantial increase in energy consumption in the coming decades is expected to be driven principally by the developing world. However it is also well recognized that care should be taken to ensure that the increased energy consumption should not be at the cost of the environment. Of particular concern is the Green House Gas emissions. Reduction of GHGs will call for careful planning and appropriate choice of the energy mix. The expected Global/Indian energy scenario in the coming decades, the associated GHG emissions and some possible options to limit them are presented and discussed in the paper. (author)

  16. Transportation energy scenario analysis technical report No. 1: examination of four existing scenarios. [Projections for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernard, M. J.; LaBelle, S. J.; Millar, M.; Walbridge, E. W.

    1978-03-01

    This project aims to provide the DOE Division of Transportation Energy Conservation (TEC) with a long-range forecasting framework in which to evaluate potential changes to the U.S. Transportation system. This initial report examines four existing, but diverse, 50-year scenarios of the future. It describes the scenarios and summarizes the changes in the major transportation system variables that would occur through the year 2025 in each scenario. Projections of variables of interest to TEC are explored, including passenger or ton miles and energy consumption. Each is reported for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025 under four scenarios: success, moderate economic growth, energy crisis, and transformation. The philosophy of this project is that the transportation system must support future lifestyles; by examining potential future lifestyles the required transportation system changes can be deduced. The project: (a) develops a set of scenarios that span likely futures; (b) describes the lifestyles in each scenario in order; (c) determines the characteristics of the transportation system supporting those lifestyles; (d) indicates transportation technologies and policies necessary in that system; and (e) derives the energy characteristics of that system. The implications of the four existing scenarios are examined with emphasis on current TEC electric-vehicle development. This preliminary investigation will be followed by detailed-scenario building (modifying existing scenarios or developing new ones) and generation of lifestyles and transportation system demands under each of the scenarios. This work will be reported in October 1978.

  17. Renewable Energy Generation in India: Present Scenario and Future Prospects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Singh, Sri Niwas; Singh, Bharat; Østergaard, Jacob

    2009-01-01

    The development of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) is necessary for the sustainable development of any country due to depleting fossil fuel level, climbing fossil fuel prices across the world and more recently pressure for reduction emission level. In India, several schemes and policies are launched...... by the government to support the use of RES to achieve energy security and self-sufficiency. This paper discusses the present scenario and future prospects of RES in India. Various schemes such as financial assistance, tax holiday etc for promoting RESs development and utilization are also discussed. The present...

  18. Impacts of high energy prices on long-term energy-economic scenarios for Germany

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krey, V.; Markewitz, P. [Research Center Juelich, Inst. of Energy Res., Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation, Juelich (Germany); Horn, M. [DIW Berlin, Berlin (Germany); Matthes, C.; Graichen, V.; Harthan, R.O.; Repenning, J. [Oeko-Institut, Berlin (Germany)

    2007-05-15

    Prices of oil and other fossil fuels on global markets have reached a high level in recent years. These levels were not able to be reproduced on the basis of scenarios and prognoses that were published in the past. New scenarios, based on higher energy price trajectories, have appeared only recently. The future role of various energy carriers and technologies in energy-economic scenarios will greatly depend on the level of energy prices. Therefore, an analysis of the impact of high energy prices on long-term scenarios for Germany was undertaken. Based on a reference scenario with moderate prices, a series of consistent high price scenarios for primary and secondary energy carriers were developed. Two scenarios with (i) continuously rising price trajectories and (ii) a price shock with a price peak during the period 2010-15 and a subsequent decline to the reference level are analysed. Two types of models have been applied in the analysis. The IKARUS energy systems optimisation model covers the whole of the German energy system from primary energy supply down to the end-use sectors. Key results in both high price scenarios include a replacement of natural gas by hard coal and renewable energy sources in electricity and heat generation. Backstop technologies like coal liquefaction begin to play a role under such conditions. Up to 10% of final energy consumption is saved in the end-use sectors, with the residential and transport sector being the greatest contributors. Even without additional restrictions, CO{sub 2} emissions significantly drop in comparison to the reference scenario. The ELIAS electricity investment analysis model focuses on the power sector. In the reference scenario with current allocation rules in the emissions trading scheme, the CO{sub 2} emissions decrease relatively steadily. The development is characterised by the phaseout of nuclear energy which is counterweighted by the increase of renewable. In the high price scenario, the CO{sub 2

  19. Mechanism of long-range penetration of low-energy ions in botanic samples

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Feng; Wang Yugang; Xue Jianming; Wang Sixue; Du Guanghua; Yan Sha; Zhao Weijiang

    2002-01-01

    The authors present experimental evidence to reveal the mechanism of long-range penetration of low-energy ions in botanic samples. In the 100 keV Ar + ion transmission measurement, the result confirmed that low-energy ions could penetrate at least 60 μm thick kidney bean slices with the probability of about 1.0 x 10 -5 . The energy spectrum of 1 MeV He + ions penetrating botanic samples has shown that there is a peak of the count of ions with little energy loss. The probability of the low-energy ions penetrating the botanic sample is almost the same as that of the high-energy ions penetrating the same samples with little energy loss. The results indicate that there are some micro-regions with mass thickness less than the projectile range of low-energy ions in the botanic samples and they result in the long-range penetration of low-energy ions in botanic samples

  20. Real-time Energy Resource Scheduling considering a Real Portuguese Scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Silva, Marco; Sousa, Tiago; Morais, Hugo

    2014-01-01

    The development in power systems and the introduction of decentralized gen eration and Electric Vehicles (EVs), both connected to distribution networks, represents a major challenge in the planning and operation issues. This new paradigm requires a new energy resources management approach which...... scheduling in smart grids, considering day - ahead, hour - ahead and real - time scheduling. The case study considers a 33 - bus distribution network with high penetration of distributed energy resources . The wind generation profile is base d o n a rea l Portuguese wind farm . Four scenarios are presented...... taking into account 0, 1, 2 and 5 periods (hours or minutes) ahead of the scheduling period in the hour - ahead and real - time scheduling...

  1. Large scale scenario analysis of future low carbon energy options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olaleye, Olaitan; Baker, Erin

    2015-01-01

    In this study, we use a multi-model framework to examine a set of possible future energy scenarios resulting from R&D investments in Solar, Nuclear, Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), Bio-fuels, Bio-electricity, and Batteries for Electric Transportation. Based on a global scenario analysis, we examine the impact on the economy of advancement in energy technologies, considering both individual technologies and the interactions between pairs of technologies, with a focus on the role of uncertainty. Nuclear and CCS have the most impact on abatement costs, with CCS mostly important at high levels of abatement. We show that CCS and Bio-electricity are complements, while most of the other energy technology pairs are substitutes. We also examine for stochastic dominance between R&D portfolios: given the uncertainty in R&D outcomes, we examine which portfolios would be preferred by all decision-makers, regardless of their attitude toward risk. We observe that portfolios with CCS tend to stochastically dominate those without CCS; and portfolios lacking CCS and Nuclear tend to be stochastically dominated by others. We find that the dominance of CCS becomes even stronger as uncertainty in climate damages increases. Finally, we show that there is significant value in carefully choosing a portfolio, as relatively small portfolios can dominate large portfolios. - Highlights: • We examine future energy scenarios in the face of R&D and climate uncertainty. • We examine the impact of advancement in energy technologies and pairs of technologies. • CCS complements Bio-electricity while most technology pairs are substitutes. • R&D portfolios without CCS are stochastically dominated by portfolios with CCS. • Higher damage uncertainty favors R&D development of CCS and Bio-electricity

  2. Environmental Externalities of Geological Carbon Sequestration Effects on Energy Scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smekens, K.; Van der Zwaan, B.

    2004-03-01

    Geological carbon sequestration seems one of the promising options to address, in the near term, the global problem of climate change, since carbon sequestration technologies are in principle available today and their costs are expected to be affordable. Whereas extensive technological and economic feasibility studies rightly point out the large potential of this 'clean fossil fuel' option, relatively little attention has been paid so far to the detrimental environmental externalities that the sequestering of CO2 underground could entail. This paper assesses what the relevance might be of including these external effects in long-term energy planning and scenario analyses. Our main conclusion is that, while these effects are generally likely to be relatively small, carbon sequestration externalities do matter and influence the nature of future world energy supply and consumption. More importantly, since geological carbon storage (depending on the method employed) may in some cases have substantial external impacts, in terms of both environmental damage and health risks, it is recommended that extensive studies are performed to quantify these effects. This article addresses three main questions: (1) What may energy supply look like if one accounts for large-scale CO2 sequestration in the construction of long-term energy and climate change scenarios; (2) Suppose one hypothesizes a quantification of the external environmental costs of CO2 sequestration, how do then these supposed costs affect the evolution of the energy system during the 21st century; (3) Does it matter for these scenarios whether carbon sequestration damage costs are charged directly to consumers or, instead, to electricity producers?

  3. Scenarios for solar thermal energy applications in Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martins, F.R.; Abreu, S.L.; Pereira, E.B.

    2012-01-01

    The Solar and Wind Energy Resource Assessment (SWERA) database is used to prepare and discuss scenarios for solar thermal applications in Brazil. The paper discusses low temperature applications (small and large scale water heating) and solar power plants for electricity production (concentrated solar power plants and solar chimney plants) in Brazil. The results demonstrate the feasibility of large-scale application of solar energy for water heating and electricity generation in Brazil. Payback periods for water heating systems are typically below 4 years if they were used to replace residential electric showerheads in low-income families. Large-scale water heating systems also present high feasibility and many commercial companies are adopting this technology to reduce operational costs. The best sites to set up CSP plants are in the Brazilian semi-arid region where the annual energy achieves 2.2 MW h/m 2 and averages of daily solar irradiation are larger than 5.0 kW h/m 2 /day. The western area of Brazilian Northeastern region meets all technical requirements to exploit solar thermal energy for electricity generation based on solar chimney technology. Highlights: ► Scenarios for solar thermal applications are presented. ► Payback is typically below 4 years for small scale water heating systems. ► Large-scale water heating systems also present high feasibility. ► The Brazilian semi-arid region is the best sites for CSP and chimney tower plants.

  4. Energy scenarios for European passenger transport in the year 2030

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rienstra, S.A.; Nijkamp, P. [Systems and Control Group, Faculty of Mechanical and Marine Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Delft (Netherlands)] Smokers, R.T.M. [ECN Policy Studies, Petten (Netherlands)

    1995-11-01

    In this paper four energy scenarios for West-European passenger transport are developed. To start with, the present transport system as a baseline case is described and analysed. Next, for each scenario it is outlined how the passenger transport system may look like in terms of the use of various existing and future transport technologies and the corresponding modal split. Based on this information, expected energy consumption features of the various transport modes are described, data on the present fuel supply and electricity generation system are provided, and estimations of the future energy system are given. Then, the energy consumption and CO2 emissions associated with the future passenger transport systems are calculated and these impacts are compared with the current system. The conclusion is that a large-scale reduction of CO2 emissions is possible in several ways, but that each option will cause many problems because drastic policy measures will have to be introduced, which may affect economic growth and the lifestyles of individuals. 4 figs., 11 tabs., 22 refs.

  5. Renewable energy scenario in India: Opportunities and challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sen, Souvik; Ganguly, Sourav; Das, Ayanangshu; Sen, Joyjeet; Dey, Sourav

    2016-10-01

    Majority of the power generation in India is carried out by conventional energy sources, coal and fossil fuels being the primary ones, which contribute heavily to greenhouse gas emission and global warming. The Indian power sector is witnessing a revolution as excitement grips the nation about harnessing electricity from various renewable energy sources. Electricity generation from renewable sources is increasingly recognized to play an important role for the achievement of a variety of primary and secondary energy policy goals, such as improved diversity and security of energy supply, reduction of local pollutant and global greenhouse gas emissions, regional and rural development, and exploitation of opportunities for fostering social cohesion, value addition and employment generation at the local and regional level. This focuses the solution of the energy crisis on judicious utilization of abundant the renewable energy resources, such as biomass, solar, wind, geothermal and ocean tidal energy. This paper reviews the renewable energy scenario of India as well as extrapolates the future developments keeping in view the consumption, production and supply of power. Research, development, production and demonstration have been carried out enthusiastically in India to find a feasible solution to the perennial problem of power shortage for the past three decades. India has obtained application of a variety of renewable energy technologies for use in different sectors too. There are ample opportunities with favorable geology and geography with huge customer base and widening gap between demand and supply. Technological advancement, suitable regulatory policies, tax rebates, efficiency improvement in consequence to R&D efforts are the few pathways to energy and environment conservation and it will ensure that these large, clean resource bases are exploited as quickly and cost effectively as possible. This paper gives an overview of the potential renewable energy resources

  6. Wood energy x 2 - Scenario for the development of wood energy use in Switzerland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    This study for the Swiss Agency for the Environment, Forests and Landscapes (SAEFL) and the Swiss wood-energy association (Holzenergie Schweiz) presents the results of a scenario-study that examined if, and under what conditions, doubling the use of wood energy in Switzerland could help reach carbon dioxide reduction targets. Two scenarios are presented that are based on high and low rates of growth for the number of automatic wood-chipping or pellets-fired installations. For both scenarios, figures are presented on the amount of wood used and the heating energy generated. The political and financial prerequisites for the scenarios are discussed and other boundary conditions are defined. The report draws conclusions from the study of the two scenarios and summarises the political action deemed necessary

  7. The modelling of future energy scenarios for Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kwon, Pil Seok

    2014-01-01

    within a time frame of two hours and approx. 7% of the electricity demand can be moved within a time frame of 24 hours. The system benefit at the assessed amount of flexible demand is limited however. Results from the other analysis indicate that in order to have a significant impact on the energy system...... performance, more than a quarter of the classic electricity demand would need to be flexible within a month, which is highly unlikely to happen. For the investigation of the energy system model, EnergyPLAN, which is used for two scenario analyses, two questions are asked; “what is the value of future...... for the important but uncertain areas biomass and flexible demand are performed. Thirdly, modelling-related issues are investigated with a focus on the effect of future forecasting assumption and differences between a predefined priority order and order determined by given efficiencies and constraints...

  8. Future energy demand in Laos. Scenario alternatives for development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luukkanen, J.; Kouphokham, K.; Panula-Ontto, J. [and others

    2012-07-01

    Energy production in Laos is still dominated by traditional fuels. Fuelwood in the main source of energy and most of the energy is consumed at households for cooking. Increase in the number of cars and motorbikes is rapidly increasing the use of imported petroleum products. Electrification is one of the central targets of the Lao government. The electrification rate has increased fast in Laos and in the year 2010 over 70 % households had electricity supply. The target is to have 90 % access to electricity by the year 2020. The World Bank regards the electrification of Lao PDR to be a success story. This paper deals with the present and future energy consumption in Laos. First the historical trends of energy use in different sectors are analysed. The future scenarios are constructed using LaoLinda model. Four different future alternative development paths are analysed using the model results. The energy use data source for the analysis is from the Ministry of Energy and Mines (MEM) of Lao PDR. Economic and other data is from the Department of Statistics of Lao PDR.

  9. Global climate-oriented building energy use scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harvey, L.D. Danny

    2014-01-01

    This paper explores the extent to which global fuel use in buildings could be reduced, and the growth in global electricity use in buildings limited, by applying stringent (factor of 3–4) improvements to recent building codes for new buildings worldwide and large (factor of 2–3) reductions in the energy use of existing buildings through renovations. The analysis is carried out for 10 different socio-economic regions of the world, taking into account existing building stock and energy intensities in each region and projected changes in population and income, which in most parts of the world will drive large increases in building floor area. A stock turnover model is applied to project changes in heating, cooling, service hot water (SHW) and non-thermal electricity demand with various rates of improvement in standards for new and renovated buildings, and various rates of renovation and demolition of existing buildings. For a scenario in which population peaks at about 9 billion and global average per capita GDP increases to twice the 2010 value by 2100, the global fuel demand could be reduced by a factor of four while limiting maximum annual electricity demand to twice the 2010 value. - Highlights: • A detailed model for generating global scenarios of building energy use is presented. • Drivers of increasing energy use are population and per capita GDP in 10 regions. • Heating, cooling and ventilation energy uses are projected using a stock turnover model. • Global building fuel demand could decrease by 60–80% by 2100 relative to 2010. • Global building electricity demand could be limited to a 100–200% increase

  10. Evaluation of scenarios for energy systems. Potentials, limits and acceptance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schubert, Daniel Kurt Josef

    2016-01-01

    In contrast to previous approaches in connection with the energy transition, the dissertation leads to a change of perspective towards social consideration. Previous scenario studies focused on technical feasibility as well as individual cost and environmental aspects, as shown in the pre-analysis. Society plays a secondary role in this case. Instead of being taken into account in the prior decision-making process, time and effort are often invested in the downstream conviction of the population only after that. The approach pursued in the work consistently focuses on incorporating social preferences and barriers into the decision-making process in advance, so that decisions themselves have lasting validity. Representative telephone surveys are used to determine the preferences of the population on the one hand and the limits of acceptance in the form of willingness to pay on the other hand. Only then are scenario calculations carried out in order to be able to quantitatively evaluate energy policy options for action. In the subsequent comparison of social barriers and model results, however, the limits of this approach are also made clear: a desired action option from the perspective of the population (here the brown coal exit) can also fail because of political and legal barriers. [de

  11. Cost-optimal electricity systems with increasing renewable energy penetration for islands across the globe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Blok, K.; van Velzen, Leonore

    2018-01-01

    Cost-optimal electricity system configurations with increasing renewable energy penetration were determined in this article for six islands of different geographies, sizes and contexts, utilizing photovoltaic energy, wind energy, pumped hydro storage and battery storage. The results of the

  12. Long-term scenarios for sustainable energy use in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fischedick, M.; Nitsch, J.; Lechtenboehmer, S.; Hanke, T.; Barthel, C.; Jungbluth, C.; Assmann, D.; Brueggen, T. vor der; Trieb, F.; Nast, M.; Langniss, O.; Brischke, L.A.

    2002-01-01

    The study was able to show, and explain vividly through scenarios describing change processes, that a sustainable use of energy (aimed, among other things, at reducing CO 2 emissions by 80% by 2050 compared with 1990 levels) is technically feasible, economically viable, compatible with farther-reaching objectives of energy policy (e.g. supply security), and does not, in spite of the substantial need for change, present the players involved with any insurmountable problems but, rather, constitutes both a challenge and an opportunity. Such a development is possible only if the efforts launched to give momentum to the increased use of renewable energy sources are continued consistently, the impending need for replacement and renewal within the generation system is consistently utilised for increasing efficiency and a reorientation mainly towards combined heat and power production, and energy saving is made a new focal point of energy policy. Furthermore, with regard to long-term infrastructure requirements (decentralisation, new fuels), the necessary decisions must be prepared at an early stage and sufficiently robust lines of development must be identified and followed. (orig.) [de

  13. Challenges and prospects for wind energy to attain 20% grid penetration by 2020 in India

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Peter Hauge; Natarajan, Anand

    2011-01-01

    With wind energy being the most realistic large-scale renewable energy source in the near future, we examine the target for wind energy penetration in India for 2020. Achieving the target set by the Indian Wind Power Association of 20% wind power grid penetration by 2020 will act as a lighthouse......-scale integration of wind power. In the article, we discuss the trends in the development of wind energy and the factors which we consider decisive for the development of wind power in India. Experiences and policies from Europe and Denmark, where wind power already today contributes 20% to the total electricity...

  14. South Korean energy scenarios show how nuclear power can reduce future energy and environmental costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong, Sanghyun; Bradshaw, Corey J.A.; Brook, Barry W.

    2014-01-01

    South Korea is an important case study for understanding the future role of nuclear power in countries with on-going economic growth, and limited renewable energy resources. We compared quantitatively the sustainability of two ‘future-mapping’ exercises (the ‘Governmental’ scenario, which relies on fossil fuels, and the Greenpeace scenario, which emphasises renewable energy and excludes nuclear power). The comparison was based on a range of environmental and technological perspectives, and contrasted against two additional nuclear scenarios that instead envisage a dominant role for nuclear energy. Sustainability metrics included energy costs, external costs (greenhouse-gas emissions, air pollutants, land transformation, water consumption and discharge, and safety) and additional costs. The nuclear-centred scenarios yielded the lowest total cost per unit of final energy consumption by 2050 ($14.37 GJ −1 ), whereas the Greenpeace scenario has the highest ($25.36 GJ −1 ). We used probabilistic simulations based on multi-factor distributional sampling of impact and cost metrics to estimate the overlapping likelihoods among scenarios to understand the effect of parameter uncertainty on the integrated recommendations. Our simulation modelling implies that, despite inherent uncertainties, pursuing a large-scale expansion of nuclear-power capacity offers the most sustainable pathway for South Korea, and that adopting a nuclear-free pathway will be more costly and produce more greenhouse-gas emissions. - Highlights: • Nuclear power has a key role to play in mitigating greenhouse-gas emissions. • The Greenpeace scenario has higher total external cost than the nuclear scenarios. • The nuclear-centred scenarios offer the most sustainable option for South Korea. • The similar conclusions are likely to apply to other Asian countries

  15. Long-term scenarios for global energy demand and supply. Four global greenhouse mitigation scenarios. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soerensen, B.; Meibom, P.; Kuemmel, B.

    1999-01-01

    The scenario method is used to investigate energy demand and supply systems for the 21st century. A geographical information system (GIS) is employed to assess the spatial match between supply and demand, and the robustness of the scenario against changes in assumptions is discussed, for scenarios using fossil fuels without carbon dioxide emissions, nuclear fuels with reduced accident and proliferation risks, and renewable energy from local and from more centralised installations: The year 2050 demand scenario is based on a very high goal satisfaction in all regions of the world, for the middle UN population projection. All energy efficiency measures that are technically ready and economic today are assumed in effect by year 2050. An increased fraction of total activities are assumed to occur in non-material sectors. Technical, economic and implementation issues are discussed, including the resilience to changes in particularly demand assumptions and the type of framework that would allow energy policy to employ any of (or a mix of) the scenario options. Results are presented as average energy flows per unit of land area. This geographically based presentation method gives additional insights, particularly for the dispersed renewable energy systems, but in all cases it allows to identify the need for energy transmission and trade between regions, and to display it in a visually suggestive fashion. The scenarios are examples of greenhouse mitigation scenarios, all characterised by near-zero emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. All are more expensive than the present system, but only if the cost of the negative impacts from the current system is neglected. As options for global energy policy during the next decades, the clean fossil and the renewable energy options (possibly in combination) are the only realistic ones, because the safe nuclear option requires research and development that most likely will take longer time, if it can at all be carried

  16. Long-term scenarios for global energy demand and supply. Four global greenhouse mitigation scenarios. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soerensen, B; Meibom, P [Technical Univ. of Denmark, Lyngby (Denmark); Kuemmel, B [Royal Agricultural and Veterinary Univ., Tastrup (Denmark)

    1999-01-01

    The scenario method is used to investigate energy demand and supply systems for the 21st century. A geographical information system (GIS) is employed to assess the spatial match between supply and demand, and the robustness of the scenario against changes in assumptions is discussed, for scenarios using fossil fuels without carbon dioxide emissions, nuclear fuels with reduced accident and proliferation risks, and renewable energy from local and from more centralised installations: The year 2050 demand scenario is based on a very high goal satisfaction in all regions of the world, for the middle UN population projection. All energy efficiency measures that are technically ready and economic today are assumed in effect by year 2050. An increased fraction of total activities are assumed to occur in non-material sectors. Technical, economic and implementation issues are discussed, including the resilience to changes in particularly demand assumptions and the type of framework that would allow energy policy to employ any of (or a mix of) the scenario options. Results are presented as average energy flows per unit of land area. This geographically based presentation method gives additional insights, particularly for the dispersed renewable energy systems, but in all cases it allows to identify the need for energy transmission and trade between regions, and to display it in a visually suggestive fashion. The scenarios are examples of greenhouse mitigation scenarios, all characterised by near-zero emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. All are more expensive than the present system, but only if the cost of the negative impacts from the current system is neglected. As options for global energy policy during the next decades, the clean fossil and the renewable energy options (possibly in combination) are the only realistic ones, because the safe nuclear option requires research and development that most likely will take longer time, if it can at all be carried

  17. Rogeaulito: a world energy scenario modeling tool for transparent energy system thinking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Léo eBenichou

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Rogeaulito is a world energy model for scenario building developed by the European think tank The Shift Project. It’s a tool to explore world energy choices from a very long-term and systematic perspective. As a key feature and novelty it computes energy supply and demand independently from each other revealing potentially missing energy supply by 2100. It is further simple to use, didactic and open source. As such, it targets a broad user group and advocates for reproducibility and transparency in scenario modeling as well as model-based learning. Rogeaulito applies an engineering approach using disaggregated data in a spreadsheet model.

  18. Rogeaulito: A World Energy Scenario Modeling Tool for Transparent Energy System Thinking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benichou, Léo; Mayr, Sebastian

    2014-01-01

    Rogeaulito is a world energy model for scenario building developed by the European think tank The Shift Project. It’s a tool to explore world energy choices from a very long-term and systematic perspective. As a key feature and novelty it computes energy supply and demand independently from each other revealing potentially missing energy supply by 2100. It is further simple to use, didactic, and open source. As such, it targets a broad user group and advocates for reproducibility and transparency in scenario modeling as well as model-based learning. Rogeaulito applies an engineering approach using disaggregated data in a spreadsheet model.

  19. Rogeaulito: A World Energy Scenario Modeling Tool for Transparent Energy System Thinking

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benichou, Léo, E-mail: leo.benichou@theshiftproject.org [The Shift Project, Paris (France); Mayr, Sebastian, E-mail: communication@theshiftproject.org [Paris School of International Affairs, Sciences Po., Paris (France)

    2014-01-13

    Rogeaulito is a world energy model for scenario building developed by the European think tank The Shift Project. It’s a tool to explore world energy choices from a very long-term and systematic perspective. As a key feature and novelty it computes energy supply and demand independently from each other revealing potentially missing energy supply by 2100. It is further simple to use, didactic, and open source. As such, it targets a broad user group and advocates for reproducibility and transparency in scenario modeling as well as model-based learning. Rogeaulito applies an engineering approach using disaggregated data in a spreadsheet model.

  20. Introduction of Renewable Energy Certificate in the Indian scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goyal, Mohit; Jha, Rakesh

    2009-01-01

    Generation deficit in India is in the range of 9% and the scenario is expected to get grimmer in the context of high growth rate of the country. With peak power shortage as high as 15.2% (Source: Annual report FY08, MoP) the nation needs to harness all forms of generation including renewables, which currently has a meager share of 8% of the total generation in the country at present. Shooting price of crude oil reaching up to $135 (May 2008) per barrel along with increasing awareness and concerns about environment, the stage seems to be set for an increased mix of Renewable Energy (RE) into the overall energy requirement in the country. Keeping the concern for environment and energy security for the country in mind, government of India has been putting emphasis on promotion of renewable energy sources. Central and state government policies have always been instrumental in the propagation of capacity additions in renewable energy power. One of the main aims of these policies has been on increasing the private sector participation in this sector. In the pre-reform period, the state governments took policy decisions regarding financial incentives, buy-back tariff and other measures targeting investment in renewable energy. However, the State Electricity Regulatory Commissions (SERCs) are now responsible for many of these tasks. SERCs have come up with a host of initiatives, inline with their functions laid down in the Electricity Act 2003, to increase the share of renewable energy inside their respective States. Despite the efforts of SERCs, large potential of renewable energy generation remains untapped. There is lack of clarity on how to promote renewable energy generation inside states which are not having significant renewable energy generation potential. This paper explores the way in which SERCs can introduce measures to further promote renewable energy generation inside the country. We discuss in detail the framework to promote renewable energy through a

  1. Z-burst scenario for the highest energy cosmic rays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fodor, Z.

    2002-10-01

    The origin of highest energy cosmic rays is yet unknown. An appealing possibility is the so-called Z-burst scenario, in which a large fraction of these cosmic rays are decay products of Z bosons produced in the scattering of ultrahigh energy neutrinos on cosmological relic neutrinos. The comparison between the observed and predicted spectra constrains the mass of the heaviest neutrino. The required neutrino mass is fairly robust against variations of the presently unknown quantities, such as the amount of relic neutrino clustering, the universal photon radio background and the extragalactic magnetic field. Considering different possibilities for the ordinary cosmic rays the required neutrino masses are determined. In the most plausible case that the ordinary cosmic rays are of extragalactic origin and the universal radio background is strong enough to suppress high energy photons, the required neutrino mass is 0.08 eV ≤ m ν ≤ 0.40 eV. The required ultrahigh energy neutrino flux should be detected in the near future by experiments such as AMANDA, RICE or the Pierre Auger Observatory. (orig.)

  2. Integrating the views and perceptions of UK energy professionals in future energy scenarios to inform policymakers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parkes, Gareth; Spataru, Catalina

    2017-01-01

    The Energy Institute (EI) developed its first Energy Barometer survey in 2015 which aims to understand professionals’ views and opinions of energy priorities, policies and technologies. 543 UK energy professionals from across the energy sector were surveyed. Following the survey, 79% of UK energy professionals believe their sector is not effectively communicating with the public. This suggests there is an urgent need to better understand how to use surveys in a more methodological way. Developed in conjunction with the EI, this paper presents the Energy Barometer survey methodology and results to achieve a better understanding of UK energy professionals’ current perceptions and future priorities. The paper makes two contributions to enhance the UK's energy debate. First, it provides the first results in a longitudinal assessment of energy professionals’ views of energy policy issues and discusses the implications for future policymaking. Second, it identifies opportunities for Energy Barometer findings to feed into scenarios development. A comparison with other studies was undertaken. It has been shown that the views of professionals working across the sector are aligned with decentralised approaches to decarbonisation. In particular, professionals expect action from policymakers to coordinate, engage with and encourage investment in energy efficiency. - Highlights: • 543 UK energy professionals from across the energy sector were surveyed. • Aiming to better understand views and opinions of energy priorities, policies and technologies. • A comparison of the methodology and results with other studies was undertaken. • Considers contributions of results to energy system scenario development. • Identifies particular need for increased energy efficiency investment.

  3. Comparing long term energy scenarios; Scenari energetici di lungo termine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cumo, M.; Simbolotti, G. [Rome Univ. La Sapienza, Rome (Italy)

    2001-02-01

    Major projection studies by international organizations and senior analysts have been compared with reference to individual key parameters (population, energy demand/supply, resources, technology, emissions and global warming) to understand trends and implications of the different scenarios. Then, looking at the long term (i.e., 2050 and beyond), parameters and trends have been compared together to understand and quantify whether and when possible crisis or market turbulence might occur due to shortage of resources or environmental problems. [Italian] Viene presentato un confronto degli scenari energetici di lungo termine formulati dalle agenzie internazionali e dai maggiori analisti del settore con particolare riferimento alla evoluzione di specifici parametri quali sviluppo demografico, domanda e offerta di energia, risorse energetiche, sviluppo tecnologico, emissioni e relativi cambiamenti climatici. L'evoluzione e l'interdipendenza dei singoli aspetti vengono analizzate al fine di individuare la possibile evenienza di crisi o turbolenze dei mercati energetici indotte da carenza di risorse o da problemi ambientali.

  4. Day-Ahead Energy Planning with 100% Electric Vehicle Penetration in the Nordic Region by 2050

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Zhaoxi; Wu, Qiuwei; Nielsen, Arne Hejde

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents the day-ahead energy planning of passenger cars with 100% electric vehicle (EV) penetration in the Nordic region by 2050. EVs will play an important role in the future energy systems which can both reduce the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission from the transport sector and provide...... demand side flexibility required by the smart grids. On the other hand, the EVs will increase the electricity consumption. In order to quantify the electricity consumption increase due to the 100% EV penetration in the Nordic region to facilitate the power system planning studies, the day-ahead energy...

  5. Solar energy scenarios in Brazil. Part two: Photovoltaics applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martins, F.R.; Ruether, R.; Pereira, E.B.; Abreu, S.L.

    2008-01-01

    This paper discusses some energy scenarios for photovoltaic applications in Brazil engendered by using SWERA database in order to demonstrate its potential for feasibility analysis and application in the energy planning for electricity generation. It discusses two major different markets: hybrid PV-Diesel installations in mini-grids of the off-grid Brazilian electricity system in the Amazon region, and grid-connected PV in urban areas of the interconnected Brazilian electricity system. The potential for using PV is huge, and can be estimated in tens to hundreds of MWp in the Amazon region alone, even if only a fraction of the existing Diesel-fired plants with a total installed capacity of over 620 MVA would fit to run in an optimum Diesel/PV mix. Most of the major cities in Brazil present greater electricity demand in summertime with the demand peak happening in the daytime period. This energy profile match the actual solar resource assessment provided by SWERA Data Archive, enabling grid-connected PV systems to provide an important contribution to the utility's capacity

  6. Resolution of issues with renewable energy penetration in a long-range power system demand-supply planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ogimoto, Kazuhiko; Ikeda, Yuichi; Kataoka, Kazuto; Ikegami, Takashi; Nonaka, Shunsuke; Azuma, Hitoshi

    2012-01-01

    Under the anticipated high penetration of variable renewable energy generation such as photovoltaic, the issue of supply demand balance should be evaluated and fixed. Technologies such as demand activation, and energy storage are expected to solve the issue. Under the situation, a long-range power system supply demand analysis should have the capability for the evaluation in its analysis steps of demand preparation, maintenance scheduling, and economic dispatch analysis. This paper presents results of a parametric analysis of the reduction of PV and Wind generation curtailment reduction by deployment of batteries. Based on a set of scenarios of the prospects of Japan's 10 power system demand-supply condition in 2030, the demand-supply balance capability are analyzed assuming PV and wind generation variation, demand activation and dispatchable batteries. (author)

  7. Scenarios of socio-economic and energy development of the country up to 2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsvetanov, P.

    1990-01-01

    The scenarios description is given as the first stage of a procedure of an energy-economy interrelations dynamics study, the other two stages being the formulation and the analysis of the development variants. The scenarios reflect quantitatively the policies and the international conditions for the socio-economic, energy demand and energy supply developments of the country. Two economic development scenarios ('high' - official macroeconomic views and 'low' - economic restructuring and decrease of energy intensity) hierarchically preside over the two corresponding energy demand scenarios of different technological evolutions ('traditional' and 'energy efficiency' oriented one) in the industry, the transport and the domestic and services sectors. Four energy supply system scenarios follow, corresponding to different approaches in the development of the energy conversion technologies and energy carriers, thus constituting a scenario tree of the studies. 16 refs., 2 figs., 7 tab., 1 ann. (R.Ts.)

  8. World Energy Scenarios 2050: Impact of the Energy Governance Models to the Future of the European Energy Sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kisel, E.

    2014-01-01

    World Energy Council has explored the impact of two extreme governance models of energy sector to the global economic and climate developments. Scenario 'Jazz' describes the world, where investments in the energy markets are made by the companies on the purely economic basis. Scenario 'Symphony' describes the world, where decisions about the energy investments are made by the governments. It appears that in case of Scenario 'Jazz' we would reach lower energy prices, but it would also bring along higher and wider consumption of energy, and much higher environmental impact. In case of Scenario 'Symphony' energy prices would be somewhat higher, but environmental and energy efficiency would deliver better results, and there will be more energy-poor people around the world. It can also be observed, that resulting energy mixes of these two scenarios are very different. When Scenario 'Jazz' would leave the share of fossil fuels nearly to the current levels, then Scenario 'Symphony' supports strongly development of Solar and Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Sequestration Technologies. The modelling was also made separately for different regions of the world, the results for Europe can be observed from the report as well. This provides a fruit for thought about the role of the governments in the implementation of the EU 2030 Energy and Climate Strategy. The presentation would describe shortly the methodology of the study, clarifies the assumptions of the scenarios and highlights the main outcomes of the study in for the world and for European energy sector. (author).

  9. EnerFuture: Long Term Energy Scenarios 'Understanding our energy future'. Key graphs and analysis, Enerdata - Global Energy Forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    Enerdata analyses 4 future energy scenarios accounting for 2 economic growth assumptions combined with 2 alternative carbon emission mitigation policies. In this study, a series of analyses supported by graphs assess the energy consumption and intensity forecasts in emerging and developed markets. In particular, one analysis is dedicated to energies competition, including gas, coal and renewable energies. (authors)

  10. Likely market-penetrations of renewable-energy technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Probert, S.D.; Mackay, R.M.

    1998-01-01

    The learning-curve concept is considered to be an important tool for predicting the future costs of renewable-energy technology systems. This paper sets out the underlying rationale for learning-curve theory and the potential for its application to renewable technologies, such as photovoltaic-module and wind-power generator technologies. An indication of the data requirements for carrying out learning-curve projections is given together with an assessment of the requirements necessary for an analysis to be undertaken of the application of learning curves to other renewable-energy technologies. The paper includes a cost comparison and a figure-of-merit criterion applicable to photovoltaic-module and wind-power-turbine technologies. (Copyright (c) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam. All rights reserved.)

  11. An energy approach study of the penetration of concrete by rigid missiles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guirgis, Sameh; Guirguis, Ehab

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents an energy approach for investigating the penetration of concrete by rigid missiles and the associated phenomena. However, the principal assumptions made here must be validated experimentally before giving the proposed subject further considerations. In the following, a new measure for concrete resistance to penetration by hard missiles is presented. The suggested term for this measure is 'the Volumetric Crushing Energy Density' of concrete which can be described as the energy required for converting a unit volume of concrete to separate particles under compressive loading so that the particles of the crushed volume meet certain gradation criteria. Using this quantity, an explanation of the scale effect is postulated. Moreover, a dimensionless semi-analytical formula for the penetration depth of a rigid missile in a concrete target is proposed which includes a large number of the variables of the problem. The formula assumes that the penetration incident may include several successive phases where the set of variables that governs the impact is different during each phase, and the variables that characterize the impact during each phase correlate in a different manner as well. Furthermore, many of the penetration depth formulae available in the literature are rewritten according to the formula proposed here where the concrete penetration resistance of any incident is estimated by modifying the resistance of 'reference impact incidents.' The rewritten formulae show the wide variation of the values of concrete resistance which are implicitly included in the original formulae. Finally, the proposed formula is applied using data of penetration experiments presented by Forrestal et al. [Forrestal, M.J., Altman, B.S., Cargile, J.D., Hanchak, S.J., 1994. An empirical equation for penetration depth of ogive-nose projectiles into concrete targets. Int. J. Impact Eng. 15(4), 395-405; Forrestal, M.J., Frew, D.J., Hickerson, J.P., Rohwer, T.A., 2003

  12. Atmospheric and geological CO2 damage costs in energy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smekens, K.E.L.; Van der Zwaan, B.C.C.

    2006-05-01

    Geological carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) is currently seriously considered for addressing, in the near term, the problem of climate change. CCS technology is available today and is expected to become an increasingly affordable CO2 abatement alternative. Whereas the rapidly growing scientific literature on CCS as well as experimental and commercial practice demonstrate the technological and economic feasibility of implementing this clean fossil fuel option on a large scale, relatively little attention has been paid so far to the risks and environmental externalities of geological storage of CO2. This paper assesses the effects of including CCS damage costs in a long-term energy scenario analysis for Europe. An external cost sensitivity analysis is performed with a bottom-up energy technology model that accounts not only for CCS technologies but also for their external costs. Our main conclusion is that in a business-as-usual scenario (i.e. without climate change intervention or externality internalisation), CCS technologies are likely to be deployed at least to some extent, mainly in the power generation sector, given the economic benefits of opportunities such as enhanced coal bed methane, oil and gas recovery. Under a strict climate (CO2 emissions) constraint, CCS technologies are deployed massively. With the simultaneous introduction of both CO2 and CCS taxation in the power sector, designed to internalise the external atmospheric and geological effects of CO2 emissions and storage, respectively, we find that CCS will only be developed if the climate change damage costs are at least of the order of 100 euro/t CO2 or the CO2 storage damage costs not more than a few euro/t CO2. When the internalised climate change damage costs are as high as 67 euro/t CO2, the expensive application of CCS to biomass-fuelled power plants (with negative net CO2 emissions) proves the most effective CCS alternative to reduce CO2 emissions, rather than CCS applied to fossil

  13. Global transportation scenarios in the multi-regional EFDA-TIMES energy model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muehlich, P.; Hamacher, T.

    2009-01-01

    The aim of this study is to assess the potential impact of the transportation sector on the role of fusion power in the energy system of the 21st century. Key indicators in this context are global passenger and freight transportation activities, consumption levels of fuels used for transportation purposes, the electricity generation mix and greenhouse gas emissions. These quantities are calculated by means of the global multi-regional EFDA-TIMES energy system model. For the present study a new transportation module has been linked to the EFDA-TIMES framework in order to arrive at a consistent projection of future transportation demands. Results are discussed implying various global energy scenarios including assumed crossovers of road transportation activities towards hydrogen or electricity infrastructures and atmospheric CO 2 concentration stabilization levels at 550 ppm and 450 ppm. Our results show that the penetration of fusion power plants is only slightly sensitive to transportation fuel choices but depends strongly on assumed climate policies. In the most stringent case considered here the contribution of electricity produced by fusion power plants can become as large as about 50% at the end of the 21st century. This statement, however, is still of preliminary nature as the EFDA-TIMES project has not yet reached a final status.

  14. Electricity markets evolution with the changing generation mix: An empirical analysis based on China 2050 High Renewable Energy Penetration Roadmap

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zou, Peng; Chen, Qixin; Yu, Yang; Xia, Qing; Kang, Chongqing

    2017-01-01

    Penetration Scenario and Roadmap Study, empirical analysis is performed to identify the impacts of the changing generation mix on electricity markets and power industry. The energy storage systems are specifically analysed and compared to reveal their impacts on the profit structures of various generators.

  15. Scenarios for an energy policy concept of the German Government

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagl, Stephan; Fuersch, Michaela; Paulus, Moritz; Richter, Jan; Trueby, Johannes; Lindenberger, Dietmar

    2010-01-01

    In this article we demonstrate how challenging greenhouse gas reduction targets of up to 95% until 2050 can be achieved in the German electricity sector. In the analysis, we focus on the main requirements to reach such challenging targets. To account for interdependencies between the electricity market and the rest of the economy, different models were used to account for feedback loops with all other sectors. We include scenarios with different runtimes and retrofit costs for existing nuclear plants to determine the effects of a prolongation of nuclear power plants in Germany. Key findings for the electricity sector include the importance of a European-wide coordinated electricity grid extension and the exploitation of regional comparative cost effects for renewable sites. Due to political restrictions, nuclear energy will not be available in Germany in 2050. However, the nuclear life time extension has a positive impact on end consumer electricity prices as well as economic growth in the medium term, if retrofit costs do not exceed certain limits. (orig.)

  16. Capacity Payments in Restructured Markets under Low and High Penetration Levels of Renewable Energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomas Jenkin, Philipp Beiter, and Robert Margolis

    2016-02-01

    Growing levels of variable renewable energy resources arguably create new challenges for capacity market designs, because variable renewable energy suppresses wholesale energy prices while providing relatively little capacity. This effect becomes more pronounced the higher the variable renewable energy penetration in a market. The purpose of this report is threefold. First, we provide a brief outline of the purpose and design of various capacity markets using administratively determined capacity demand curves. Second, we discuss some of the main challenges raised in existing literature and a set of interviews that we conducted with market participants, regulators, and observers. Third, we consider some of the challenges to capacity markets that arise with higher variable renewable energy penetration.

  17. Off-stream Pumped Storage Hydropower plant to increase renewable energy penetration in Santiago Island, Cape Verde

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barreira, Inês; Gueifão, Carlos; Ferreira de Jesus, J.

    2017-04-01

    In order to reduce the high dependence on imported fuels and to meet the ongoing growth of electricity demand, Cape Verde government set the goal to increase renewable energy penetration in Santiago Island until 2020. To help maximize renewable energy penetration, an off-stream Pumped Storage Hydropower (PSH) plant will be installed in Santiago, in one of the following locations: Chã Gonçalves, Mato Sancho and Ribeira dos Picos. This paper summarizes the studies carried out to find the optimal location and connection point of the PSH plant in Santiago’s electricity network. This goal was achieved by assessing the impact of the PSH plant, in each location, on power system stability. The simulation tool PSS/E of Siemens was used to study the steady-state and dynamic behavior of the future (2020) Santiago MV grid. Different scenarios of demand and renewable resources were created. Each hydro unit of the PSH plant was modeled as an adjustable speed reversible turbine employing a DFIM. The results show that Santiago’s grid with the PSH plant in Chã Gonçalves is the one that has the best performance.

  18. DGEMP-OE (2008) Energy Baseline Scenario. Synthesis report; Scenario energetique de reference DGEMP-OE(2008). Rapport de synthese

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2008-07-01

    A 'Business as usual' or 'Baseline' scenario of energy trends to 2020-2030 is produced by France every four years, as requested by the International Energy Agency in order to update the global scenarios published in its World Energy Outlook. Since the most recent scenario of this type was drawn up in 2003-2004, the time has come to renew the effort for the IEA's next in-depth review of French energy policy. Specifically, the DGEMP seeks to predict the future of France's energy situation assuming that no policies or new measures are taken affecting (i.e. improving or deteriorating) the situation other than those already in place or adopted as of 1 January 2008 (in other words, before measures such as those stemming from the Grenelle Environment Forum). On the other hand, it is assumed that change in the energy system is guided by 'conventional wisdom' according to which political options and behaviours by economic units are expected to be 'reasonable'. As a result, even should its projections prove inappropriate, this cannot be considered a 'worst-case' scenario. Indeed, beyond the IEA, this scenario can be used to establish an MEA (Multilateral Environment Agreement) scenario (based on existing measures) for national communications submitted under the U.N. Climate Convention. The scenarios by the 'Energy' Commission, part of the Centre d'Analyse Strategique (CAS), could have been used, particularly since the consultant who worked with the CAS to develop its scenarios was also commissioned by the DGEMP. However, several considerations argued in favour of proceeding separately: - The CAS scenarios drew on the DGEMP's 2004 baseline scenario, even though certain parameters were updated (in particular energy prices). - Moreover, the concept underpinning the DGEMP baseline scenario is that it should to every extent possible remain constant over time to secure continued consensus on this &apos

  19. Future waste treatment and energy systems – examples of joint scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Münster, M.; Finnveden, G.; Wenzel, H.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Approach for use of scenarios dealing with both waste management and energy issues. • Overall scenarios for the common project and sub-scenarios in parts of the project. • Combining different types of scenarios to the tools of different disciplines. • Use of explorative external scenarios based on marginals for consequential LCA. - Abstract: Development and use of scenarios for large interdisciplinary projects is a complicated task. This article provides practical examples of how it has been carried out in two projects addressing waste management and energy issues respectively. Based on experiences from the two projects, recommendations are made for an approach concerning development of scenarios in projects dealing with both waste management and energy issues. Recommendations are given to develop and use overall scenarios for the project and leave room for sub-scenarios in parts of the project. Combining different types of scenarios is recommended, too, in order to adapt to the methods and tools of different disciplines, such as developing predictive scenarios with general equilibrium tools and analysing explorative scenarios with energy system analysis tools. Furthermore, as marginals identified in differing future background systems determine the outcomes of consequential life cycle assessments (LCAs), it is considered advisable to develop and use explorative external scenarios based on possible marginals as a framework for consequential LCAs. This approach is illustrated using an on-going Danish research project

  20. Energy Storage Options for Voltage Support in Low-Voltage Grids with High Penetration of Photovoltaic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marra, Francesco; Tarek Fawzy, Y.; Bülo, Thorsten

    2012-01-01

    to be established. In the long term, these solutions should also aim to allow further more PV installed capacity, while meeting the power quality requirements. In this paper, different concepts of energy storage are proposed to ensure the voltage quality requirements in a LV grid with high PV penetration...

  1. Evaluation methodology for tariff design under escalating penetrations of distributed energy resources

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Abdelmotteleb, I.I.A.; Gómez, Tomás; Reneses, Javier

    2017-01-01

    As the penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) escalates in distribution networks, new network tariffs are needed to cope with this new situation. These tariffs should allocate network costs to users, promoting an efficient use of the distribution network. This paper proposes a

  2. Use of Danish Heat Atlas and energy system models for exploring renewable energy scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petrovic, Stefan; Karlsson, Kenneth Bernard

    2013-01-01

    networks in relation with significant heat saving measures that are capital intensive infrastructure investments require highly detailed decision - support tools. The Heat Atlas for Denmark provides a highly detailed database and includes heat demand and possible heat savings for about 2.5 million...... buildings with associated costs included. Energy systems modelling tools that incorporate economic, environmental, energy and engineering analysis of future energy systems are considered crucial for quantitative assessment of transitional scenarios towards future milestones, such as (i) EU 2020 goals...... of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, increasing share of renewable energy and improving energy efficiency and (ii) Denmark’s 2050 goals of covering entire energy supply by renewable energy. Optimization and simulation energy system models are currently used in Denmark. The present paper tends to provide...

  3. Scenario analysis of the new energy policy for Taiwan's electricity sector until 2025

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Fung-Fei; Chou, Seng-Cho; Lu, Tai-Ken

    2013-01-01

    For this study, we constructed the following three case scenarios based on the Taiwanese government's energy policy: a normal scenario, the 2008 “Sustainable Energy Policy Convention” scenario, and the 2011 “New Energy Policy” scenario. We then employed a long-term Generation Expansion Planning (GEP) optimization model to compare the three case scenarios' energy mix for power generation for the next å15 years to further explore their possible impact on the electricity sector. The results provide a reference for forming future energy policies and developing strategic responses. - Highlights: • We constructed three case scenarios based on the Taiwan government's energy policy. • We employed a long-term Generation Expansion Planning optimization model. • A significant gap exists between the carbon reduction target and baseline. • The carbon reduction target requires a holistic resolution needed taking seriously

  4. A 'business-as-usual' energy scenario for France at the 2020 vista

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giraud, P.N.

    2000-01-01

    A 'business-as-usual' energy scenario is the most probable scenario where the energy demand follows the trends of the past and where no new energy policy is implemented. This work is a complement to the three contrasted energy scenarios built in 1998 by the 'Energy 2010-2020' prospective group of the French general commission of national development. The scenario built in this study is only a reference which allows the measure the efforts made to reach political goals. The main conclusion of this scenario is the increase of the CO 2 emissions under the double effect of the economic growth and of the cessation of the nuclear program which becomes non-competitive with respect to the gas prices and actualization rates retained in the scenario. The main constraint of the energy future is incontestably the necessary fight against the greenhouse effect. (J.S.)

  5. Proceedings of 15th Forum: Energy Day in Croatia: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Granic, G.; Jelavic, B.

    2006-01-01

    Energy perspectives are in the focus of the whole energy community. Facing te growing needs for energy, limits to reserves, terrorist of war threats, and climate changes is the main driver in searching for long-term solutions which would make energy development less uncertain and less risky. Technological development is one of the answers to energy problems, but it is not the only one. Enhancing energy efficiency is a social challenge that goes beyond technology problem. Equally, accepting locations for construction of energy facilities is also a social challenge, because, together with other social challenges, may give am answer how to develop stable energy industry. Energy security is synergy of various factors: energy market, infrastructure which facilitates good connectivity, diversification of resources, enhanced use of renewable energy sources and energy efficiency, and it is important to stress that the only secure energy systems are well-balanced ones. World Energy Council initiated the global study Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050 with the aim to overview the future energy at global and regional levels

  6. Proceedings of 15th Forum: Energy Day in Croatia: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Granic, G; Jelavic, B

    2006-07-01

    Energy perspectives are in the focus of the whole energy community. Facing te growing needs for energy, limits to reserves, terrorist of war threats, and climate changes is the main driver in searching for long-term solutions which would make energy development less uncertain and less risky. Technological development is one of the answers to energy problems, but it is not the only one. Enhancing energy efficiency is a social challenge that goes beyond technology problem. Equally, accepting locations for construction of energy facilities is also a social challenge, because, together with other social challenges, may give am answer how to develop stable energy industry. Energy security is synergy of various factors: energy market, infrastructure which facilitates good connectivity, diversification of resources, enhanced use of renewable energy sources and energy efficiency, and it is important to stress that the only secure energy systems are well-balanced ones. World Energy Council initiated the global study Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050 with the aim to overview the future energy at global and regional levels.

  7. Management of a Low-Energy Penetrating Brain Injury Caused by a Nail

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. R. Ferraz

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Low-energy penetrating nail injury to the brain is an extremely rare neurosurgical emergency. The most common cause of nail gun injury is work related accidents; other causes result from accidental firing of a nail gun, suicide attempts by firing nail guns into the brain, and bomb blasts containing pieces of nails. Neurosurgical treatment performed by craniotomy still seems to be the safest one; there are reports of complications such as subdural hematoma and intraparenchymal hemorrhages following the blind removal of foreign bodies leading to suggestions that all penetrating foreign bodies should be removed under direct vision. We report a rarely described neurosurgical approach for removal of a penetrating nail from the brain and skull without evidence of associated hematoma and other brain lesions.

  8. Feasibility study on the potential of development of renewable energies for the ZAC de l'Horloge in Romainville. Study of opportunities in renewable energies and definition of energy supply scenarios. Analysis and comparison of energy supply scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-12-01

    A first report proposes an overview of available renewable energy sources (geothermal, solar, and wind energy, green electricity, methanization, wood energy, waste water valorisation, connection to an existing heat network). For each of them, it presents a resource assessment, a discussion of constraints, or, should the occasion occur an overview of local providers (for wood), or an assessment of different options (small and large wind energy installations). It also presents demands made by existing sites on the studied area and at its neighbourhood. Energy supply scenarios are briefly defined. The second report proposes an analysis and a comparison of these scenarios. After a presentation of hypotheses and methodology, scenarios are presented in terms of energy needs, energy production and its relationship with the performance of positive energy buildings, adequacy with resource. Beside a reference scenario, these scenarios are named Dogger, Biomass, Wood, Clustered sectors. Comparison is performed in terms of energetic, economic and environmental assessments

  9. Hydrogen energy in changing environmental scenario: Indian context

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leo Hudson, M. Sterlin; Dubey, P.K.; Pukazhselvan, D.; Pandey, Sunil Kumar; Singh, Rajesh Kumar; Raghubanshi, Himanshu; Shahi, Rohit R.; Srivastava, O.N.

    2009-01-01

    This paper deals with how the Hydrogen Energy may play a crucial role in taking care of the environmental scenario/climate change. The R and D efforts, at the Hydrogen Energy Center, Banaras Hindu University have been described and discussed to elucidate that hydrogen is the best option for taking care of the environmental/climate changes. All three important ingredients for hydrogen economy, i.e., production, storage and application of hydrogen have been dealt with. As regards hydrogen production, solar routes consisting of photoelectrochemical electrolysis of water have been described and discussed. Nanostructured TiO 2 films used as photoanodes have been synthesized through hydrolysis of Ti[OCH(CH 3 ) 2 ] 4 . Modular designs of TiO 2 photoelectrode-based PEC cells have been fabricated to get high hydrogen production rate (∝10.35 lh -1 m -2 ). However, hydrogen storage is a key issue in the success and realization of hydrogen technology and economy. Metal hydrides are the promising candidates due to their safety advantage with high volume efficient storage capacity for on-board applications. As regards storage, we have discussed the storage of hydrogen in intermetallics as well as lightweight complex hydride systems. For intermetallic systems, we have dealt with material tailoring of LaNi 5 through Fe substitution. The La(Ni l-x Fe x ) 5 (x = 0.16) has been found to yield a high storage capacity of ∝2.40 wt%. We have also discussed how CNT admixing helps to improve the hydrogen desorption rate of NaAlH 4 . CNT (8 mol%) admixed NaAlH 4 is found to be optimum for faster desorption (∝3.3 wt% H 2 within 2 h). From an applications point of view, we have focused on the use of hydrogen (stored in intermetallic La-Ni-Fe system) as fuel for Internal Combustion (IC) engine-based vehicular transport, particularly two and three-wheelers. It is shown that hydrogen used as a fuel is the most effective alternative fuel for circumventing climate change. (author)

  10. Energy perspectives of the France by 2020-2050. Energy scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-09-01

    The aim of the working group was to realize quantitative approaches of the french energy system by 2020-2050 supporting the reflexions of the Energy Commission. The presented scenario are not prevision of the future. They just allow, in function of the hypothesis and the models used, to establish an approach of the consequences in term of the final energy demand. Two simulation tools were used and described in the chapter 3: Medpro-Poles and Markal-Times. The scenario are analyzed in the chapters 4 and 5. Results allow to see how the proposed measures are sufficient to reach in France the main objectives proposed by the european union. (A.L.B.)

  11. Scenarios of energy sobriety and societal transformations. When lifestyle and society changes mean energy savings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-09-01

    By using prospective energy scenarios, the objective of this study performed in the Nord-Pas-de-Calais region is to quantify energy savings induced by possible public policies or by lifestyle changes, and then to use the obtained results as tools of support to public decision, and means to make people aware of the end of an abundant and cheap oil, of the potential of solar energy, and of the benefits of energy sobriety. Four scenarios are thus defined. The first one concerns food habits, and corresponds to a more biological production, seasonal and less transformed foodstuffs, more vegetal plates, and reduced distances between producers and consumers. The second one concerns material goods: evolution towards more mutualization, re-use, and durability of products, and a reduced usage of equipment. The third one concerns buildings: the end of individual equipment and of always increasing surfaces, a modulated comfort depending on the room, and more collective organisations. The last scenario concerns displacements: less frequent displacements, shorter distances, use of soft modes, smaller vehicles, and energy saving in the use of vehicles

  12. Macro-economic and energy scenarios for Japan through the long-term

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mankin, Shuichi

    1986-03-01

    As one of studies and systems analyses on the role of VHTR and process heat utilization in future energy systems, long-term macro economic and energy scenarios of Japan until the year 2030 have been generated. This paper presents,; 1) the outline of the long-term macro econometric model and the energy system dynamics model by which these scenarios were generated, 2) back grounds and prospects on future societies of Japan and exogeneous assumptions for calculations, and 3) macro energy and economic scenarios generated. Reflecting the present economic prospects, these scenarios are seemed to be of extremely low-growth type, however, the role of VHTR and its energy systems could be prospected clealy to play a large and important role within these scenario regions. Basic philosophies of scenario generations are also mentioned in this paper. (author)

  13. Future waste treatment and energy systems – examples of joint scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Münster, Marie; Finnveden, G.; Wenzel, H.

    2013-01-01

    of scenarios is recommended, too, in order to adapt to the methods and tools of different disciplines, such as developing predictive scenarios with general equilibrium tools and analysing explorative scenarios with energy system analysis tools. Furthermore, as marginals identified in differing future......Development and use of scenarios for large interdisciplinary projects is a complicated task. This article provides practical examples of how it has been carried out in two projects addressing waste management and energy issues respectively. Based on experiences from the two projects......, recommendations are made for an approach concerning development of scenarios in projects dealing with both waste management and energy issues. Recommendations are given to develop and use overall scenarios for the project and leave room for sub-scenarios in parts of the project. Combining different types...

  14. Accelerating the market penetration of renewable energy technologies in South Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martens, J.W.; De Lange, T.J.; Cloin, J.; Szewczuk, S.; Morris, R.; Zak, J.

    2001-03-01

    There exists a large potential for renewable energy technologies in South Africa and despite the fact that rapid growth of the application of renewable energy takes place in many parts of the world, the current installed renewable capacity in South Africa is negligible. The objective of this study is to address this gap by analysing ways to accelerate the market penetration of renewable energy technologies in South Africa. The activities undertaken in this study comprise two major components: a thorough analysis of South Africa's specific constraints and barriers to renewable energy implementation, and a review of the lessons learnt from Member States of the European Union (EU) on the promotion of renewable energy development. The focus of the study was restricted to the analysis of electricity generating technologies, in particular solar energy, biomass, wind power and mini-hydro renewable energy technologies. Recommendations to stimulate the market penetration of renewable energy technologies in South Africa are formulated. They are structured in: actions to enhance the policy framework for renewable power generation, actions to enhance the policy framework for off-grid renewable energy, and recommendations to stimulate renewable energy project development. 44 refs

  15. Global Energy Scenarios to 2040. Understanding our energy future - 2016 Edition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2016-01-01

    The energy world is in rapid evolution, driven in particular by policy developments (like the INDCs agreed at COP-21) but also economic, geopolitical, technological as well as social considerations. Enerdata regularly produces scenario based energy outlooks to analyze and forecast the supply and demand of energy commodities, energy prices, as well as the impact of climate change and energy policies on energy markets and their consequences for the energy industry. After the COP-21 in Paris, Enerdata has again done such an exercise. The Ener-Blue scenario provides an outlook of energy systems up to 2040 based on the achievement of the 2030 targets defined in the INDCs as announced at the COP-21. Ener-Green explores the implications of more stringent energy and climate policies to limit the global temperature increase at around 1.5-2 deg. C by the end of the century. Finally, Ener-Brown describes a world with abundant fossil fuel resource and durably low energy prices, affecting the entire energy system over a long period. These different scenarios explore the consequences on energy supply and demand, energy mix, energy prices by fuel and region, as well as the implications on climate issues. In the Ener-Blue scenario, the future energy mix remains dominated by fossil fuels, but INDCs planned policies regarding climate mitigation, energy efficiency and renewable energy sources lead to a diversification towards other sources of energy. Among others, the EU successfully achieves its triple objective of its climate and energy package, while China and India expand their renewable capacities to achieve their renewable targets. Within this international context of climate coordinated policies, CO_2 emission growth slows down. However, the efforts defined in INDCs are not ambitious enough to limit the increase of the average global temperature to 2 deg. C in 2050, but these efforts are compatible with 3-4 deg. C objective. In the Ener-Green scenario, there is a clear

  16. Modeling and analysis of long-term energy scenarios for sustainable strategies of Ethiopia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Senshaw, Dereje Azemraw

    2014-04-15

    Despite robust economic growth, Ethiopia is one of the countries with poor energy accesses. Contributing factors are poor availability of energy, unreliable and insufficient quality of energy, and insufficient policy. Recognizing that energy access and security are indispensable to economic transformation, Ethiopia needs to cope with key challenges related to energy security, climate change mitigation and also diversification of energy supply. In order to achieve these targets and strive towards sustainable energy for all, Ethiopia's energy system requires a major transformation. The main achievement of this research has been the development of alternative energy options under different conditions for Ethiopia up to 2050. To identify an energy pathway that would meet Ethiopia's energy needs in a sustainable manner, three scenarios are considered: the business-as usual (BAU), moderate shift (Scenario1) and the advanced shift scenario (Scenario 2). The scenarios were developed, quantified and analyzed using a bottom-up model for Long Term Alternative Energy Planning (LEAP). These scenarios represent a range of energy policy measures that Ethiopia could adopt to achieve its sustainable development goals. The BAU scenario reflects a continuation of the current policy trend and considers on economic growth rate of 7%, while Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 represent moderate and advanced levels of commitment in economic growth, energy diversity and reduction of energy import dependency and CO{sub 2} emissions limits, respectively. The scenario analysis shows that the primary energy requirements for Ethiopia's socio-economic development will increase sharply over the period (2010-2050) in all three scenarios. BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 show an expected to growth at annual rates of 4.1, 4.9 and 5.7% respectively. If the current policy trends (as represented by BAU) continue, the total energy demand in Ethiopia is expected to reach 6,553 Petajoule (PJ) by 2050

  17. Modeling and analysis of long-term energy scenarios for sustainable strategies of Ethiopia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Senshaw, Dereje Azemraw

    2014-04-01

    Despite robust economic growth, Ethiopia is one of the countries with poor energy accesses. Contributing factors are poor availability of energy, unreliable and insufficient quality of energy, and insufficient policy. Recognizing that energy access and security are indispensable to economic transformation, Ethiopia needs to cope with key challenges related to energy security, climate change mitigation and also diversification of energy supply. In order to achieve these targets and strive towards sustainable energy for all, Ethiopia's energy system requires a major transformation. The main achievement of this research has been the development of alternative energy options under different conditions for Ethiopia up to 2050. To identify an energy pathway that would meet Ethiopia's energy needs in a sustainable manner, three scenarios are considered: the business-as usual (BAU), moderate shift (Scenario1) and the advanced shift scenario (Scenario 2). The scenarios were developed, quantified and analyzed using a bottom-up model for Long Term Alternative Energy Planning (LEAP). These scenarios represent a range of energy policy measures that Ethiopia could adopt to achieve its sustainable development goals. The BAU scenario reflects a continuation of the current policy trend and considers on economic growth rate of 7%, while Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 represent moderate and advanced levels of commitment in economic growth, energy diversity and reduction of energy import dependency and CO 2 emissions limits, respectively. The scenario analysis shows that the primary energy requirements for Ethiopia's socio-economic development will increase sharply over the period (2010-2050) in all three scenarios. BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 show an expected to growth at annual rates of 4.1, 4.9 and 5.7% respectively. If the current policy trends (as represented by BAU) continue, the total energy demand in Ethiopia is expected to reach 6,553 Petajoule (PJ) by 2050 from

  18. Economic Justification of Concentrating Solar Power in High Renewable Energy Penetrated Power Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hodge, Brian S [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Kroposki, Benjamin D [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Du, Ershun [Tsinghua University; Zhang, Ning [Tsinghua University; Kang, Chongqing [Tsinghua University; Xia, Qing [Tsinghua University

    2018-04-24

    Concentrating solar power (CSP) plants are able to provide both renewable energy and operational flexibility at the same time due to its thermal energy storage (TES). It is ideal generation to power systems lacking in flexibility to accommodate variable renewable energy (VRE) generation such as wind power and photovoltaics. However, its investment cost currently is too high to justify its benefit in terms of providing renewable energy only. In this paper we evaluate the economic benefit of CSP in high renewable energy penetrated power systems from two aspects: generating renewable energy and providing operational flexibility to help accommodating VRE. In order to keep the same renewable energy penetration level during evaluation, we compare the economic costs between the system with a high share of VRE and another in which some part of the VRE generation is replaced by CSP generation. The generation cost of a power system is analyzed through chronological operation simulation over a whole year. The benefit of CSP is quantified into two parts: (1) energy benefit - the saving investment of substituted VRE generation and (2) flexibility benefit - the reduction in operating cost due to substituting VRE with CSP. The break-even investment cost of CSP is further discussed. The methodology is tested on a modified IEEE RTS-79 system. The economic justifications of CSP are demonstrated in two practical provincial power systems with high penetration of renewable energy in northwestern China, Qinghai and Gansu, where the former province has massive inflexible thermal power plants but later one has high share of flexible hydro power. The results suggest that the CSP is more beneficial in Gansu system than in Qinghai. The levelized benefit of CSP, including both energy benefit and flexibility benefit, is about 0.177-0.191 $/kWh in Qinghai and about 0.238-0.300 $/kWh in Gansu, when replacing 5-20% VRE generation with CSP generation.

  19. Energy consumption in industry, 1990 - 2035 - Scenarios I to IV for various sensitivities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baumgartner, W.; Ebert, O.; Weber, F.

    2006-12-01

    This comprehensive, illustrated report for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) takes a look at the results of a study with respect to industrial energy consumption which provided scenarios for future Swiss energy consumption. Four scenarios were elaborated: Continuation of present policy, increased co-operation between state and industry, more ambitious energy policy priorities and a scenario with even more ambitious goals - the so-called '2000 Watt Society'. For each of these scenarios several variants and a selection of sub-variants were defined, including increased prices, higher gross domestic product GDP, warmer climate and various carbon levies. The specific energy consumption of 16 different industrial sectors is examined and the effects of the various scenarios on several factors are considered. Data and results are presented in tabular and graphical form. Various measures that could influence energy consumption are listed and discussed, as are the modelling methods employed and the plausibility of the results obtained

  20. Technology learning for renewable energy: Implications for South Africa's long-term mitigation scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Winkler, Harald, E-mail: Harald.Winkler@uct.ac.z [Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town, Private Bag, Rondebosch 7701 (South Africa); Hughes, Alison [Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town, Private Bag, Rondebosch 7701 (South Africa); Haw, Mary [PJ Carew Consulting, 103 Hout Street, Cape Town 8001 (South Africa)

    2009-11-15

    Technology learning can make a significant difference to renewable energy as a mitigation option in South Africa's electricity sector. This article considers scenarios implemented in a Markal energy model used for mitigation analysis. It outlines the empirical evidence that unit costs of renewable energy technologies decline, considers the theoretical background and how this can be implemented in modeling. Two scenarios are modelled, assuming 27% and 50% of renewable electricity by 2050, respectively. The results show a dramatic shift in the mitigation costs. In the less ambitious scenario, instead of imposing a cost of Rand 52/t CO{sub 2}-eq (at 10% discount rate), reduced costs due to technology learning turn renewables into negative cost option. Our results show that technology learning flips the costs, saving R143. At higher penetration rate, the incremental costs added beyond the base case decline from R92 per ton to R3. Including assumptions about technology learning turns renewable from a higher-cost mitigation option to one close to zero. We conclude that a future world in which global investment in renewables drives down unit costs makes it a much more cost-effective and sustainable mitigation option in South Africa.

  1. Technology learning for renewable energy. Implications for South Africa's long-term mitigation scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Winkler, Harald; Hughes, Alison [Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town, Private Bag, Rondebosch 7701 (South Africa); Haw, Mary [PJ Carew Consulting, 103 Hout Street, Cape Town 8001 (South Africa)

    2009-11-15

    Technology learning can make a significant difference to renewable energy as a mitigation option in South Africa's electricity sector. This article considers scenarios implemented in a Markal energy model used for mitigation analysis. It outlines the empirical evidence that unit costs of renewable energy technologies decline, considers the theoretical background and how this can be implemented in modeling. Two scenarios are modelled, assuming 27% and 50% of renewable electricity by 2050, respectively. The results show a dramatic shift in the mitigation costs. In the less ambitious scenario, instead of imposing a cost of Rand 52/t CO{sub 2}-eq (at 10% discount rate), reduced costs due to technology learning turn renewables into negative cost option. Our results show that technology learning flips the costs, saving R143. At higher penetration rate, the incremental costs added beyond the base case decline from R92 per ton to R3. Including assumptions about technology learning turns renewable from a higher-cost mitigation option to one close to zero. We conclude that a future world in which global investment in renewables drives down unit costs makes it a much more cost-effective and sustainable mitigation option in South Africa. (author)

  2. A comparison of the newest scenarios for energy supply in Switzerland and their results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schucan, T.H.

    1984-09-01

    The author defines an energy scenario and considers several such scenarios for Switzerland. A presentation of perspectives is given, followed by an analysis of the scenario. Remarks are made on the energy economy and on the environmental loading (specific emissions for heat pumps and block heat power stations, total emission for the year 2020 and radiation loading for people and plants in Switzerland). (A.N.K.)

  3. Microscopic Driving Parameters-Based Energy-Saving Effect Analysis under Different Electric Vehicle Penetration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enjian Yao

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Due to the rapid motorization over the recent years, China's transportation sector has been facing an increasing environmental pressure. Compared with gasoline vehicle (GV, electric vehicle (EV is expected to play an important role in the mitigation of CO2 and other pollution emissions, and urban air quality improvement, for its zero emission during use and higher energy efficiency. This paper aims to estimate the energy saving efficiency of EV, especially under different EV penetration and road traffic conditions. First, based on the emission and electricity consumption data collected by a light-duty EV and a light duty GV, a set of electricity consumption rate models and gasoline consumption rate models are established. Then, according to the conversion formula of coal equivalent, these models are transformed into coal equivalent consumption models, which make gasoline consumption and electricity consumption comparable. Finally, the relationship between the EV penetration and the reduction of energy consumption is explored based on the simulation undertaken on the North Second Ring Road in Beijing. The results show that the coal equivalent consumption will decrease by about 5% with the increases of EV penetration by 10% and the maximum energy-saving effect can be achieved when the traffic volume is about 4000 pcu/h.

  4. Energy: An endless story. The history of the energy issue and changing scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stuermer, M.

    1989-01-01

    Two oil crises and the reactor accident at Chernobyl have had a profound effect on the population in the USSR and its awareness of environmental issues and hazards. The contribution explains the energy policy and scenarios and the changes undergone in the USSR, the COMECON countries, in the Middle East and in the Persian Gulf, in the Pacific Ocean area, in the North Sea area, and in the USA, also pointing out consequences for the current situation. (DG) [de

  5. Quintessential inflation: A unified scenario of inflation and dark energy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hossain Wali

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Quintessential inflation unifies inflation and late time acceleration by a single scalar field. Such a scenario, with canonical and non-canonical scalar fields, has been discussed. The scalar field behaves as an inflaton field during inflation and as a quintessence field during late time. Also the predictions of the models has been compared with the recent Planck data.

  6. Nuclear energy: what scenarios for the future?; Nucleaire: quels scenarios pour le futur?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chatelier, Michel; Criqui, Patrick; Heuer, Daniel; Huet, Sylvestre

    2012-01-20

    Because of its energetic, environmental, economical, social, safety, political, and even ideological aspects, the nuclear energy is a major society stake. It is a technical and complex topic as well which merits a democratic, well argued and transparent debate. This book supplies to the reader all the necessary information for a thorough analysis of this much disputed energy source without any bias: why France is one of the most nuclearized country in the world? Can we get out of nuclear energy? How and at what price? Wastes and safety: what can we expect (or not) from the next generations of reactors? Should we have a referendum? In this book, two researchers of the nuclear domain, an economist and a journalist invite us to consider the problem from all angles. (J.S.)

  7. Forecasting energy consumption and energy related CO2 emissions in Greece. An evaluation of the consequences of the Community Support Framework II and natural gas penetration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Christodoulakis, N.M.; Kalyvitis, S.C.; Lalas, D.P.; Pesmajoglou, S.

    2000-01-01

    This study seeks to assess the future demand for energy and the trajectory of CO2 emissions level in Greece, taking into account the impact of the Community Support Framework (CSF) II on the development process and the penetration of natural gas, which is one of the major CSF II interventions, in the energy system. Demand equations for each sector of economic activity (traded, non-traded, public and agricultural sector) and for each type of energy (oil, electricity and solid fuels) are derived. The energy system is integrated into a fully developed macroeconometric model, so that all interactions between energy, prices and production factors are properly taken into account. Energy CO2 forecasts are then derived based on alternative scenarios for the prospects of the Greek economy. According to the main findings of the paper the growth pattern of forecast total energy consumption closely follows that of forecast output showing no signs of decoupling. As regards CO2 emissions, they are expected to increase with an annual average rate, which is higher than world forecasts. 17 refs

  8. Evaluation methodology for tariff design under escalating penetrations of distributed energy resources

    OpenAIRE

    Abdelmotteleb, I.I.A.; Gómez, Tomás; Reneses, Javier

    2017-01-01

    As the penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) escalates in distribution networks, new network tariffs are needed to cope with this new situation. These tariffs should allocate network costs to users, promoting an efficient use of the distribution network. This paper proposes a methodology to evaluate and compare network tariff designs. Four design attributes are proposed for this aim: (i) network cost recovery; (ii) deferral of network reinforcements; (iii) efficient consumer resp...

  9. Estimated radiation doses resulting if an exploratory borehole penetrates a pressurized brine reservoir assumed to exist below the WIPP repository horizon: a single hole scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bard, S.T.

    1982-03-01

    A radiation dose consequence analysis has been performed for a postulated scenario in which an exploratory gas or oil well-bore penetrates the repository and intercepts a brine reservoir in the Castile formation. The brine, corings and drilling mud are contained in a one acre holding pond on the surface. Upon the completion of drilling activities the dried holding pond area is reclaimed with a bulldozer to its original topographic conformation. The estimated radiation bone dose commitments to (1) a bulldozer operator, and (2) a member of a farm family 500 meters down wind are summarized for three penetration event times. The highest estimated 50 year bone dose commitment to an individual reclaiming the contaminated holding pond area was determined to be 590 mrem from the inhalation of CH-TRU wastes resuspended into the atmosphere at an event time of 100 years post-closure. A second dose model using a specific activity approach is developed in Appendix C for this same individual where an upper 50 year dose commitment of 450 mrem is calculated. Both of these derived estimates may be compared to the 5800 mrem to bone surfaces which may be expected from natural background radiation to an individual in the United States over a fifty year period

  10. Energy forecasts for France. A scenario having a particular tendency; Perspectives energetiques pour la France. Un scenario tendanciel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2000-03-01

    This document presents in a synthetic form a description of the energy tendency ( supplies and demands) for 2010-2020. This description has been requested by the Direction of the Energy and the raw materials (DGEMP), from may to december 1999. The proposed scenario is based on a simulation and hypothesis which don't take into account the future policy and regulations as for example the decisions of the fight program against the climatic change. Tables and graphs are provided. (A.L.B.)

  11. Energy Revolution. A Sustainable Pathway to a Clean Energy Future for Europe. A European Energy Scenario for EU-25

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teske, S.; Baker, C.

    2005-09-01

    Greenpeace and the Institute of Technical Thermodynamics, Department of Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment of the German Aerospace Center (DLR),have developed a blueprint for the EU energy supply that shows how Europe can lead the way to a sustainable pathway to a clean energy future. The Greenpeace energy revolution scenario demonstrates that phasing out nuclear power and massively reducing CO2-emissions is possible. The scenario comes close to a fossil fuels phase-out by aiming for a 80% CO2 emissions reduction by 2050.The pathway in this scenario achieves this phase-out in a relatively short time-frame without using technological options (such as 'clean coal') that are ultimately dead ends, deflecting resources from the real solutions offered by renewable energy. Whilst there are many technical options that will allow us to meet short-term EU Kyoto targets (-8% GHG by 2010), these may have limited long-term potential. The Greenpeace Energy Revolution Scenario shows that in the long run, renewable energy will be cheaper than conventional energy sources and reduce EU's dependence from world market prices from imported fossil and nuclear fuels.The rapid growth of renewable energy technologies will lead to a large investment in new technologies.This dynamic market growth will result in a shift of employment opportunities from conventional energy-related industries to new occupational fields in the renewable energy industry. Renewable energy is expected to provide about 700,000 jobs in the field of electricity generation from renewable energy sources by 2010

  12. A 'business-as-usual' energy scenario for France at the 2020 vista; Un scenario energetique tendanciel pour la France a l'horizon 2020

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Giraud, P.N

    2000-01-01

    A 'business-as-usual' energy scenario is the most probable scenario where the energy demand follows the trends of the past and where no new energy policy is implemented. This work is a complement to the three contrasted energy scenarios built in 1998 by the 'Energy 2010-2020' prospective group of the French general commission of national development. The scenario built in this study is only a reference which allows the measure the efforts made to reach political goals. The main conclusion of this scenario is the increase of the CO{sub 2} emissions under the double effect of the economic growth and of the cessation of the nuclear program which becomes non-competitive with respect to the gas prices and actualization rates retained in the scenario. The main constraint of the energy future is incontestably the necessary fight against the greenhouse effect. (J.S.)

  13. Scenarios for Benefits Analysis of Energy Research, Development,Demonstration and Deployment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gumerman, Etan; Marnay, Chris

    2005-09-07

    For at least the last decade, evaluation of the benefits of research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RD3) by the U.S. Department of Energy has been conducted using deterministic forecasts that unrealistically presume we can precisely foresee our future 10, 25,or even 50 years hence. This effort tries, in a modest way, to begin a process of recognition that the reality of our energy future is rather one rife with uncertainty. The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is used by the Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EE) and Fossil Energy (FE) for their RD3 benefits evaluation. In order to begin scoping out the uncertainty in these deterministic forecasts, EE and FE designed two futures that differ significantly from the basic NEMS forecast. A High Fuel Price Scenario and a Carbon Cap Scenario were envisioned to forecast alternative futures and the associated benefits. Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) implemented these scenarios into its version of NEMS,NEMS-LBNL, in late 2004, and the Energy Information Agency created six scenarios for FE in early 2005. The creation and implementation of the EE-FE scenarios are explained in this report. Both a Carbon Cap Scenario and a High Fuel Price Scenarios were implemented into the NEMS-LBNL. EIA subsequently modeled similar scenarios using NEMS. While the EIA and LBNL implementations were in some ways rather different, their forecasts do not significantly diverge. Compared to the Reference Scenario, the High Fuel Price Scenario reduces energy consumption by 4 percent in 2025, while in the EIA fuel price scenario (known as Scenario 4) reduction from its corresponding reference scenario (known as Scenario 0) in 2025 is marginal. Nonetheless, the 4 percent demand reduction does not lead to other cascading effects that would significantly differentiate the two scenarios. The LBNL and EIA carbon scenarios were mostly identical. The only major

  14. Energy penetration into arrays of aligned nanowires irradiated with relativistic intensities: Scaling to terabar pressures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bargsten, Clayton; Hollinger, Reed; Capeluto, Maria Gabriela; Kaymak, Vural; Pukhov, Alexander; Wang, Shoujun; Rockwood, Alex; Wang, Yong; Keiss, David; Tommasini, Riccardo; London, Richard; Park, Jaebum; Busquet, Michel; Klapisch, Marcel; Shlyaptsev, Vyacheslav N; Rocca, Jorge J

    2017-01-01

    Ultrahigh-energy density (UHED) matter, characterized by energy densities >1 × 10 8 J cm -3 and pressures greater than a gigabar, is encountered in the center of stars and inertial confinement fusion capsules driven by the world's largest lasers. Similar conditions can be obtained with compact, ultrahigh contrast, femtosecond lasers focused to relativistic intensities onto targets composed of aligned nanowire arrays. We report the measurement of the key physical process in determining the energy density deposited in high-aspect-ratio nanowire array plasmas: the energy penetration. By monitoring the x-ray emission from buried Co tracer segments in Ni nanowire arrays irradiated at an intensity of 4 × 10 19 W cm -2 , we demonstrate energy penetration depths of several micrometers, leading to UHED plasmas of that size. Relativistic three-dimensional particle-in-cell simulations, validated by these measurements, predict that irradiation of nanostructures at intensities of >1 × 10 22 W cm -2 will lead to a virtually unexplored extreme UHED plasma regime characterized by energy densities in excess of 8 × 10 10 J cm -3 , equivalent to a pressure of 0.35 Tbar.

  15. Energy Penetration into Arrays of Aligned Nanowires Irradiated with Relativistic Intensities: Scaling to Terabar Pressures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bargsten, Clayton [Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States); Hollinger, Reed [Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States); Capeluto, Maria Gabriela [Univ. of Buenos Aires (Argentina); Kaymak, Vural [Heinrich Heine Univ., Dusseldorf (Germany); Pukhov, Alexander [Heinrich Heine Univ., Dusseldorf (Germany); Wang, Shoujun [Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States); Rockwood, Alex [Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States); Wang, Yong [Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States); Keiss, David [Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States); Tommasini, Riccardo [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); London, Richard [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Park, Jaebum [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Busquet, Michel [ARTEP Inc., Ellicott City, MD (United States); Klapisch, M [ARTEP Inc., Ellicott City, MD (United States); Shlyaptsev, Vyacheslav N. [Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States); Rocca, Jorge J. [Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States)

    2016-11-11

    Ultra-high-energy-density (UHED) matter, characterized by energy densities > 1 x 108 J cm-3 and pressures greater than a gigabar, is encountered in the center of stars and in inertial confinement fusion capsules driven by the world’s largest lasers. Similar conditions can be obtained with compact, ultra-high contrast, femtosecond lasers focused to relativistic intensities onto targets composed of aligned nanowire arrays. Here we report the measurement of the key physical process in determining the energy density deposited in high aspect ratio nanowire array plasmas: the energy penetration. By monitoring the x-ray emission from buried Co tracer segments in Ni nanowire arrays irradiated at an intensity of 4 x 1019 W cm-2, we demonstrate energy penetration depths of several μm, leading to UHED plasmas of that size. Relativistic 3D particle-in-cell-simulations, validated by these measurements, predict that irradiation of nanostructures at intensities of > 1 x 1022 W cm-2 will lead to a virtually unexplored extreme UHED plasma regime characterized by energy densities in excess of 8 x 1010 J cm-3, equivalent to a pressure of 0.35 Tbar.

  16. Market penetration analysis of fuel cell vehicles in Japan by using the energy system model MARKAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Endo, Eiichi

    2007-01-01

    The objective of the present work is to validate the hydrogen energy roadmap of Japan by analyzing the market penetration of fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) and the effects of a carbon tax using an energy system model of Japan based on MARKAL. The results of the analysis show that a hydrogen FCV would not be cost competitive until 2050 without a more severe carbon tax than the government's planned 2400 JPY/t-C carbon tax. However, as the carbon tax rate increases, instead of conventional vehicles including the gasoline hybrid electric vehicle, hydrogen FCVs gain market penetration earlier and more. By assuming a more severe carbon tax rate, such as 10 000 JPY/t-C, the market share of hydrogen FCVs approaches the governmental goal. This suggests that cheaper vehicle cost and hydrogen cost than those targeted in the roadmap should be attained or subsidies to hydrogen FCV and hydrogen refueling station will be necessary for achieving the goal of earlier market penetration. (author)

  17. Perspectives of energy technologies: scenarios and strategies at the 2050 vista; Perspectives des technologies de l'energie: scenarios et strategies a l'horizon 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2008-07-01

    Every two years, the International Energy Agency (IEA) publishes the 'Energy Technology Perspectives' (ETP) report which analyses the foreseeable energy scenarios and strategies at the 2050 vista and stresses on the best available technologies. For the first time, the IEA describes in this study a scenario allowing to divide by two the CO{sub 2} emissions at the world scale, i.e. compatible with the 'factor 4' scenario of industrialized countries. The study estimates the R and D needs and the necessary additional investments to meet the different tendentious and voluntaristic scenarios proposed by the IEA. This 15. session of the cycle of energy-climate conferences aimed at presenting, from the ETP 2008 study, a thorough examination of the present day situation and perspectives of existing or future 'clean' energy technologies through the analysis of several scenarios. An examination of the interpretation of these scenarios at the France and European levels is made in order to define what should be the trends of public policies and international cooperation. This document gathers the transparencies of the two presentations given during this conference. The first presentation by Pieter Boot, Director of the Office of Sustainable Energy Policy and Technology of IEA, makes a synthesis of the ETP study and presents the recommendations of the agency. The second presentation by Olivier Appert, President of the French institute of petroleum (IFP), gives a counterpoint of the first presentation by considering the financing and acceptance aspects, in particular from the French point of view. Finally a debate with the audience completes the presentations. (J.S.)

  18. Energy scenario in India and strategy for sustainable future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumar, K.; Bhagat, S.K.; Thakur, T.

    1998-01-01

    Although India has a fairly large interconnected power system among the developing countries, it accounts for tremendously high losses occurring in the system, and hence resulting in an inefficient operation. With the ever increasing cost of inflation and several other financial constraints, it is of paramount importance to maximise/optimise the continuity and quality of electric power supply at minimum investment. Also, this calls upon planning for optimum generating capacity and maintaining adequate spinning reserves. This article discusses the Indian scenario and deals with some strategic issues keeping in mind the problems concerning the future growth of the power industry. (author)

  19. Evaluation of alternative future energy scenarios for Brazil using an energy mix model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coelho, Maysa Joppert

    The purpose of this study is to model and assess the performance and the emissions impacts of electric energy technologies in Brazil, based on selected economic scenarios, for a time frame of 40 years, taking the year of 1995 as a base year. A Base scenario has been developed, for each of three economic development projections, based upon a sectoral analysis. Data regarding the characteristics of over 300 end-use technologies and 400 energy conversion technologies have been collected. The stand-alone MARKAL technology-based energy-mix model, first developed at Brookhaven National Laboratory, was applied to a base case study and five alternative case studies, for each economic scenario. The alternative case studies are: (1) minimum increase in the thermoelectric contribution to the power production system of 20 percent after 2010; (2) extreme values for crude oil price; (3) minimum increase in the renewable technologies contribution to the power production system of 20 percent after 2010; (4) uncertainty on the cost of future renewable conversion technologies; and (5) model is forced to use the natural gas plants committed to be built in the country. Results such as the distribution of fuel used for power generation, electricity demand across economy sectors, total CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels for power generation, shadow price (marginal cost) of technologies, and others, are evaluated and compared to the Base scenarios previous established. Among some key findings regarding the Brazilian energy system it may be inferred that: (1) diesel technologies are estimated to be the most cost-effective thermal technology in the country; (2) wind technology is estimated to be the most cost-effective technology to be used when a minimum share of renewables is imposed to the system; and (3) hydroelectric technologies present the highest cost/benefit relation among all conversion technologies considered. These results are subject to the limitations of key input

  20. WAMS Based Intelligent Operation and Control of Modern Power System with large Scale Renewable Energy Penetration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rather, Zakir Hussain

    security limits. Under such scenario, progressive displacement of conventional generation by wind generation is expected to eventually lead a complex power system with least presence of central power plants. Consequently the support from conventional power plants is expected to reach its all-time low...... system voltage control responsibility from conventional power plants to wind turbines. With increased wind penetration and displaced conventional central power plants, dynamic voltage security has been identified as one of the challenging issue for large scale wind integration. To address the dynamic...... security issue, a WAMS based systematic voltage control scheme for large scale wind integrated power system has been proposed. Along with the optimal reactive power compensation, the proposed scheme considers voltage support from wind farms (equipped with voltage support functionality) and refurbished...

  1. Renewable energy: past trends and future growth in 2 degrees scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Crijns-Graus, Wina

    2016-01-01

    This study explores past growth rates of renewable energy sources (1971-2012) and required future ones in 2 degrees scenarios. Results show that in spite of comparatively high growth of renewable energy in the period 2000-2012, the share of renewable energy in total energy use stayed the same (13%).

  2. Variation of energy absorption buildup factors with incident photon energy and penetration depth for some commonly used solvents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, Parjit S.; Singh, Tejbir; Kaur, Paramjeet

    2008-01-01

    G.P. fitting method has been used to compute energy absorption buildup factor of some commonly used solvents such as acetonitrile (C 4 H 3 N), butanol (C 4 H 9 OH), chlorobenzene (C 6 H 5 Cl), diethyl ether (C 4 H 10 O), ethanol (C 2 H 5 OH), methanol (CH 3 OH), propanol (C 3 H 7 OH) and water (H 2 O) for the wide energy range (0.015-15.0 MeV) up to the penetration depth of 10 mean free path. The variation of energy absorption buildup factor with chemical composition as well as incident photon energy for the selected solvents has been studied. It has been observed that the maximum value of energy absorption buildup factors shifts to the slightly higher incident photon energy with the increase in equivalent atomic number of the solvent and the solvent with least equivalent atomic number possesses the maximum value of energy absorption buildup factor

  3. Rural energy survey and scenario analysis of village energy consumption: A case study in Lao People's Democratic Republic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mustonen, S.M.

    2010-01-01

    In developing countries, providing all citizens an access to modern forms of energy is among the central energy policy objectives, as the linkages between modern energy services and human development are widely recognized. This paper presents in a scenario analysis of rural energy consumption, how energy services in different sectors of a village economy contribute to the achievement of the UNDP Millennium Development Goals. In a rural village in Lao People's Democratic Republic, household energy demand and energy uses were surveyed immediately prior to the electrification of the village. Based on the situation preceding electrification of the village, the development of village electrification was studied by simulating the village energy system, accounting for all village energy uses but transportation. To study the potential development of electricity demand in the village, three scenarios were constructed using the LEAP model: 'residential demand', 'income generation' and 'public services'. Energy demand in each scenario was analyzed with reference to the Millennium Development Goals.

  4. Scenarios with an intensive contribution of the nuclear energy to the world energy supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nifenecker, H.; Heuer, D.; Huffer, E.; David, S.; Loiseaux, J.M.; Meplan, O.; Nuttin, A.; Martin, J.M.

    2002-01-01

    Temperature stabilization requires that CO 2 emissions be limited to less than 3 Gt Carbon equivalent, from the present level of more than 6 Gt. Despite an increase of primary energy demand by 250% in 2050 we find that a nuclear intensive scenario assuming the development of a 3000 GWe pool of PWR reactors by 2030 and of an additional 6000 GWe pool of U-Pu or Th-U reactors by 2050 would lead to temperature stabilization at a level 2 degrees above the pre-industrial level. (authors)

  5. Scenarios with an intensive contribution of nuclear energy to the world energy supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nifenecker, H.; Heuer, D.; Loiseaux, J.M.; Meplan, O.; Nuttin, A.; David, S.; Martin, J.M.

    2001-01-01

    Temperature stabilization requires that Co2 emissions be limited to less than 3 Gt Carbon equivalent, from the present level of more than 6 Gt. Despite an increase of primary energy demand by 250% in 2050 we find that a nuclear intensive scenario assuming the development of a 3000 GW pool of PWR reactors by 2030 and of an additional 6000 GW pool of U-Pu or Th-U reactors by 2050 would lead to temperature stabilization at a level 2 degrees above the pre-industrial level. (author)

  6. Energy subsidies reform in Jordan : welfare implications of different scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Atamanov,Aziz; Jellema,Jon Robbert; Serajuddin,Umar

    2015-01-01

    As the Arab Spring unfolded and political unrest spread across the Arab world, Jordan faced an adverse economy as well. Fundamental to the economic challenge was high and rising energy prices, already heavily subsidized for consumers. With the government intent on staving off emerging political unrest through a series of measures, buffering consumers from increased energy prices being a ke...

  7. Building application of solar energy. Study no. 2: Representative buildings for solar energy performance analysis and market penetration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirshberg, A. S.

    1975-01-01

    The following topics are discussed: (1) Assignment of population to microclimatic zones; (2) specifications of the mix of buildings in the SCE territory; (3) specification of four typical buildings for thermal analysis and market penetration studies; (4) identification of the materials and energy conserving characteristics of these typical buildings; (5) specifications of the HVAC functions used in each typical building, and determination of the HVAC systems used in each building; and (6) identification of the type of fuel used in each building.

  8. Some scenarios of CO2 emission from the energy system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liik, O.; Landsberg, M.

    1996-01-01

    After Estonia regained its independence, planning of energy policy became topical. Since 1989, several expert groups have worked on the urgent problems and developments of Estonia's power engineering. Comprehensive energy system planning by mathematical modeling was accomplished in 1994. Then Tallinn Technical University acquired the MARKAL model from the Swedish National Board for Industrial and Technical Development (NUTEK). The influence of air pollution constraints on energy system development was first investigated in 1995. At the end of 1995, under the U.S. Country Studies Program, a detailed analysis of future CO 2 emissions and their reduction options began. During 1990-1993, energy demand lowered due to economic decline and sharp rise in the fuel and energy prices as well as a decrease in electricity exports, has resulting in 50% reduction of CO 2 emissions. For the same reasons, Estonia has been able to meet the requirements set in the agreements on SO 2 and NO x emissions with no special measures or costs. To meet the rigid ing SO 2 restrictions and growing energy consumption in the future, Estonia must invest in abatement and in new clean and efficient oil-shale combustion technology. Along with the old oil-shale plants closing and electricity consumption growing, other fuels will be used. The increase in energy demand then should not be fast due to constantly rising prices and efficient energy use. Measures to reduce SO 2 , and NO x emissions will also reduce CO 2 . In MARKAL runs the 1990 level of CO 2 emissions will be exceeded only along with high demand growth and absence of emissions control. Restricted availability of imported fuels and nuclear power or enabling electricity import can change the results significantly. The results discussed here can also change because the data base is being improved (such as detailed description of energy networks, description of demand-side technologies, accounting of energy conservation measures, addition of

  9. The impact of high penetration of wind energy on the vulnerability of power systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    EL-Arroudi, K.; Joos, G.; McGillis, D. [McGill Univ., Montreal, PQ (Canada). Dept. of Electrical and Computer Engineering

    2006-07-01

    This paper examined the impact of higher penetrations of wind energy installations on the vulnerability of power systems. Vulnerability was defined in terms of migration of system states based on the contingencies that might occur. It was noted that both the penetration levels and physical locations of wind energy installations in power systems have a strong influence on system vulnerability. A methodology was proposed to analyze the impacts of wind energy on power system vulnerability through the construction of a decision-tree classification model at the point of common coupling (PCC) bus. The aim of the model was to determine planning criteria for wind power interconnection and to ensure that design concepts are adequate and secure. The model was built by simulating a pre-specified range of system contingencies to generate patterns at the PCC bus. Actual measurements were then compared against known patterns, from which the stress levels of disturbances were estimated. Stress levels were defined in terms of the performance level measures delineated by National Electricity Reliability Council (NERC) planning standards. The methodology is a non-parametric learning technique able to produce classifiers about given problems in order to deduce information from new, unobserved cases. A case study consisting of a 4-machine system with a total generation of 2295 MW was presented where wind-based generation accounted for 450 MW. The decision-tree classifier was constructed by simulating 120 events generated by combinations of contingencies; seasonal wind patterns and different wind production levels per season. Results showed that with a knowledge of the total penetration level and location of wind power installations, it is possible to estimate the effect of wind energy on the vulnerability of a power system. 12 refs., 6 figs.

  10. 2050 pathway to an active renewable energy scenario for Jiangsu province

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hong, Lixuan; Lund, Henrik; Mathiesen, Brian Vad

    2013-01-01

    emphasis on improving its energy efficiency and utilizing its renewable resources in the future. This paper presents the integrated energy pathway for Jiangsu during its social and economic transformation until 2050. EnergyPLAN is the chosen energy system analysis tool, since it accounts for all sectors...... of the energy system that needs to be considered when integrating large-scale renewable energy. A Current Policy Scenario (CPS) based on current energy policies and an Ambitious Policy Scenario (APS) based on large-scale integration of renewable energy and ambitious measures of energy efficiency improvement......In 2009, Jiangsu province of China supplied 99.6 percent of its total energy consumption with fossil fuels, of which 82 percent was imported from other provinces and countries. With rising energy demand, frequent energy shortages, and increasing pollution, it is essential for Jiangsu to put more...

  11. Shell energy scenarios to 2050. Signals and Signposts. An era of volatile transitions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    For 40 years, Shell has drawn on its scenarios to enhance business decisions and its ability to respond to change. Our most recent scenarios also contributed positively to the global public debate on energy and the environment. But the financial crash, the deepest economic slump in 70 years, and a patchy and fragile recovery have changed the world dramatically. We must consider how these events may or may not have altered our energy outlooks. Signals and Signposts offers our best understanding about the changes brought by the global financial and economic crisis. Internally, we have been using Recession and Recovery scenarios since September 2008. The two outlooks (Severe-yet-Sharp and Deeper-and-Longer) have, so far, bracketed actual developments. We have also drawn on a supplementary but unlikely scenario, Depression 2.0. These scenarios continue to provide useful insights and we draw on them in this booklet. Despite the economic turbulence, the fundamental drivers and uncertainties explored in our Shell Energy Scenarios to 2050 remain fully relevant. Signals and Signposts highlights significant additional factors and should be read as a companion to our Scramble and Blueprints energy scenarios, which can be downloaded from www.shell.com/scenarios. An overview is in the Appendix.

  12. The role of hydrogen in high wind energy penetration electricity systems: the Irish case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez, A.; McKeogh, E.; Gallachoir, B.O.

    2004-01-01

    The deployment of wind energy is constrained by wind uncontrollability, which poses operational problems on the electricity supply system at high penetration levels, lessening the value of wind-generated electricity to a significant extent. This paper studies the viability of hydrogen production via electrolysis using wind power that cannot be easily accommodated on the system. The potential benefits of hydrogen and its role in enabling a large penetration of wind energy are assessed, within the context of the enormous wind energy resource in Ireland. The exploitation of this wind resource may in the future give rise to significant amounts of surplus wind electricity, which could be used to produce hydrogen, the zero-emissions fuel that many experts believe will eventually replace fossil fuels in the transport sector. In this paper the operation of a wind powered hydrogen production system is simulated and optimised. The results reveal that, even allowing for significant cost-reductions in electrolyser and associated balance-of-plant equipment, low average surplus wind electricity cost and a high hydrogen market price are also necessary to achieve the economic viability of the technology. These conditions would facilitate the installation of electrolysis units of sufficient capacity to allow an appreciable increase in installed wind power in Ireland. The simulation model was also used to determine the CO 2 abatement potential associated with the wind energy/hydrogen production. (author)

  13. Hydrogen production through nuclear energy, a sustainable scenario in Mexico

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ortega V, E.; Francois L, J.L.

    2007-01-01

    The energy is a key point in the social and economic development of a country, for such motive to assure the energy supply in Mexico it is of vital importance. The hydrogen it is without a doubt some one of the alternating promising fuels before the visible one necessity to decentralize the energy production based on hydrocarbons. The versatility of their applications, it high heating power and having with the more clean fuel cycle of the energy basket with which count at the moment, they are only some examples of their development potential. However the more abundant element of the universe it is not in their elementary form in our planet, it forms molecules like in the hydrocarbons or water and it stops their use it should be extracted. At the present time different methods are known for the extraction of hydrogen, there is thermal, electric, chemical, photovoltaic among others. The election of the extraction method and the primary energy source to carry out it are decisive to judge the sustainability of the hydrogen production. The sustainable development is defined as development that covers the present necessities without committing the necessity to cover the necessities of the future generations, and in the mark of this definition four indicators of the sustainable development of the different cycles of fuel were evaluated in the hydrogen production in Mexico. These indicators take in consideration the emissions of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (environment), the readiness of the energy resources (technology), the impacts in the floor use (social) and the production costs of the cycles (economy). In this work the processes were studied at the moment available for the generation of hydrogen, those that use coal, natural gas, hydraulic, eolic energy, biomass and nuclear, as primary energy sources. These processes were evaluated with energy references of Mexico to obtain the best alternative for hydrogen production. (Author)

  14. The role of bioenergy in the UK's energy future formulation and modelling of long-term UK bioenergy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jablonski, Sophie; Bauen, Ausilio; Strachan, Neil; Brand, Christian

    2010-01-01

    This paper explores the prospects and policy implications for bioenergy to contribute to a long-term sustainable UK energy system. The UK MARKAL technology-focused energy systems dynamic cost optimisation model - which has been used to quantify the costs and benefits of alternative energy strategies in UK policy making - is enhanced with detailed representation of bio-energy chains and end-uses. This provides an important advance in linking bioenergy expert-knowledge with a whole system modelling approach, in order to better understand the potential role of bioenergy in an evolving energy system. The new BIOSYS-MARKAL model is used to run four scenarios constructed along the pillars of UK energy policy objectives (low carbon and energy security). The results are analysed in terms of bioenergy resources use and bioenergy pathways penetration in different end use sectors. The main findings suggest that the complexity of different bioenergy pathways may have been overlooked in previous modelling exercises. A range of bioenergy pathways - notably bio-heat and biofuels for transport - may have a much wider potential role to play. The extent to which this potential is fulfilled will be further determined by resources availability, and market segment constraints, as well as policy measures to improve deployment. (author)

  15. Environmental impact tool to assess national energy scenarios

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Taviv, R

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available ) in terms of environmental impacts. The system quantifies the national energy demand for the domestic, commercial, transport, industry and agriculture sectors, the supply of electricity and liquid fuels, and the resulting emissions. The South African...

  16. Investigating 100% renewable energy supply at regional level using scenario analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annicka Waenn

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Energy modelling work in Ireland to date has mainly taken place at a national level. A regional modelling approach is necessary however, for Ireland to reach the ambitious targets for renewable energy and emissions reduction. This paper explores the usefulness of the energy modelling tool EnergyPLAN in investigating the energy system of the South West Region of Ireland. This paper estimates a 10.5% current renewable energy share of energy use, with 40% renewable electricity. We build and assess a reference scenario and three renewable energy scenarios from a technological and resources perspective. The results show that sufficient resources are available for the South West Region energy system to become 100% renewable and quantifies the land-use implications. Moreover, EnergyPLAN can be a useful tool in exploring different technical solutions. However, thorough investigations of as many alternatives as possible, is necessary before major investments are made in a future energy system.

  17. Technology versus demand regulation - strategic modelling of transport, land use and energy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pfaffenbichler, Paul C.; Shepherd, Simon

    2007-01-01

    Scarcity of oil supply is seen as one of the biggest future threats to our society. The recently finished EU-funded research project STEPs (Scenarios for the Transport System and Energy Supply and their Potential Effects) had the objective to develop, compare and assess possible scenarios for the transport system and the energy supply of the future taking into account the effects on the environment as well as economic and social viability. Two energy supply scenarios, one with and one without scarcity of oil supply, form the basis of STEPs. Furthermore two different policies are suggested to tackle the problem of scarcity of oil: a technology driven strategy and a demand regulation based strategy. This paper presents the application of these scenarios and strategies to the strategic Systems Dynamics model MARS (Metropolitan Activity Relocation Simulator) covering the metropolitan area of Edinburgh. Scenario indicators like car ownership, fleet composition and fuel resource costs were provided by the European model ASTRA and the world energy market model POLES. The first part of the paper summarises the scenarios and strategies in detail. The second part describes briefly some basics of Systems Dynamics as well as the main mechanisms underlying the model MARS. Finally the results of the scenario simulations are presented. The main outcome is that a demand regulation policy is more effective in reducing the consumption of non-renewable energy resources than a technology driven policy

  18. Design of incentive programs for accelerating penetration of energy-efficient appliances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rue du Can de la, Stephane; Leventis, Greg; Phadke, Amol; Gopal, Anand

    2014-01-01

    Incentives are policy tools that sway purchase, retail stocking, and production decisions toward energy-efficient products. Incentives complement mandatory standards and labeling policies by accelerating market penetration of products that are more energy efficient than required by existing standards and by preparing the market for more stringent future mandatory requirements. Incentives can be directed at different points in the appliance's supply chain; one point may be more effective than another depending on the technology's maturity and market penetration. This paper seeks to inform future policy and program design by categorizing the main elements of incentive programs from around the world. We identify advantages and disadvantages of program designs through a qualitative overview of incentive programs worldwide. We find that financial incentive programs have greater impact when they target highly efficient technologies with a small market share, and that program designs depend on the market barriers addressed, the target equipment, and the local market context. No program design is inherently superior to another. The key to successful program design and implementation is a thorough understanding of the market and identification of the most important local obstacles to the penetration of energy-efficient technologies. - Highlights: • We researched incentive programs design and implementation worldwide. • This paper seeks to inform future policy and program design. • We identify design and identify advantages and disadvantages. • We find that incentive programs have greater impact when they target highly efficient products. • Program designs depend on the market barriers addressed and the local market context

  19. The energy consumption of traffic 1990 - 2035 - Results of scenarios I - IV

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keller, M.

    2007-01-01

    This comprehensive report for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) presents four scenarios concerning the development of energy consumption in the traffic sector for the period 1990 - 2035. The four scenarios - status quo, increased co-operation between the state and the economy with various energy levies, global reduction of energy consumption and, finally, scenario IV 'on the way to a 2000-Watt Society' - are briefly described. The areas examined include road, rail and air traffic as well as 'off-road' traffic. Infrastructure developments are commented on. The four scenarios are examined for various sensitivities including high gross domestic product GDP, high prices and warmer climate. Alternative fuels are looked at, as are further factors such as fuel tourism, pollutant emissions and costs. The results of the sensitivity analyses are compared and discussed and the necessary instruments are examined. This comprehensive report is completed with a comprehensive appendix

  20. Panorama 2014 - The energy scenarios put forward by the Ancre

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hache, Emmanuel

    2014-01-01

    The Alliance nationale de coordination de la recherche pour l'energie (Ancre), France's National Alliance for Energy Research Coordination which is made up of all of the country's public bodies involved in energy, wanted to contribute to the discussions that began within the framework of the debate initiated in autumn 2012 and as part of preparations for the law on energy transition. It wanted to do this by shedding some light (sharing its own expertise in research, technological development and innovation) on the various barriers (mainly of a technological nature) that will need to be overcome in order to reach the ambitious targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. One of the aims was to assess the conditions required and the impacts of the various possible pathways for reaching this target. This approach sets out to shed light on options on the basis of efficiency criteria, both in terms of the energy policy and in terms of France's current economic and industrial situation. (author)

  1. Comparison of future energy scenarios for Denmark: IDA 2050, CEESA (Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis), and Climate Commission 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kwon, Pil Seok; Østergaard, Poul Alberg

    2012-01-01

    Scenario-making is becoming an important tool in energy policy making and energy systems analyses. This article probes into the making of scenarios for Denmark by presenting a comparison of three future scenarios which narrate 100% renewable energy system for Denmark in 2050; IDA 2050, Climate Commission 2050, and CEESA (Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis). Generally, although with minor differences, the scenarios suggest the same technological solutions for the future such as expansion of biomass usage and wind power capacity, integration of transport sector into the other energy sectors. The methodologies used in two academic scenarios, IDA 2050 and CEESA, are compared. The main differences in the methodologies of IDA 2050 and CEESA are found in the estimation of future biomass potential, transport demand assessment, and a trial to examine future power grid in an electrical engineering perspective. The above-mentioned methodologies are compared in an evolutionary perspective to determine if the methodologies reflect the complex reality well. The results of the scenarios are also assessed within the framework of “radical technological change” in order to show which future scenario assumes more radical change within five dimensions of technology; technique, knowledge, organization, product, and profit. -- Highlights: ► Three future scenarios for Danish future in 2050 are compared. ► All of these scenarios suggest the same solutions for the future with minor differences. ► There are differences in methodologies for IDA 2050 and CEESA such as biomass, transport, and power grid. ► The contents of scenarios are assessed which scenario assume more radical technological change in the future.

  2. Experiments and modeling of ballistic penetration using an energy failure criterion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dolinski M.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the most intricate problems in terminal ballistics is the physics underlying penetration and perforation. Several penetration modes are well identified, such as petalling, plugging, spall failure and fragmentation (Sedgwick, 1968. In most cases, the final target failure will combine those modes. Some of the failure modes can be due to brittle material behavior, but penetration of ductile targets by blunt projectiles, involving plugging in particular, is caused by excessive localized plasticity, with emphasis on adiabatic shear banding (ASB. Among the theories regarding the onset of ASB, new evidence was recently brought by Rittel et al. (2006, according to whom shear bands initiate as a result of dynamic recrystallization (DRX, a local softening mechanism driven by the stored energy of cold work. As such, ASB formation results from microstructural transformations, rather than from thermal softening. In our previous work (Dolinski et al., 2010, a failure criterion based on plastic strain energy density was presented and applied to model four different classical examples of dynamic failure involving ASB formation. According to this criterion, a material point starts to fail when the total plastic strain energy density reaches a critical value. Thereafter, the strength of the element decreases gradually to zero to mimic the actual material mechanical behavior. The goal of this paper is to present a new combined experimental-numerical study of ballistic penetration and perforation, using the above-mentioned failure criterion. Careful experiments are carried out using a single combination of AISI 4340 FSP projectiles and 25[mm] thick RHA steel plates, while the impact velocity, and hence the imparted damage, are systematically varied. We show that our failure model, which includes only one adjustable parameter in this present work, can faithfully reproduce each of the experiments without any further adjustment. Moreover, it is shown that the

  3. 2050 pathway to an active renewable energy scenario for Jiangsu province

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong, Lixuan; Lund, Henrik; Mathiesen, Brian Vad; Möller, Bernd

    2013-01-01

    In 2009, Jiangsu province of China supplied 99.6 percent of its total energy consumption with fossil fuels, of which 82 percent was imported from other provinces and countries. With rising energy demand, frequent energy shortages, and increasing pollution, it is essential for Jiangsu to put more emphasis on improving its energy efficiency and utilizing its renewable resources in the future. This paper presents the integrated energy pathway for Jiangsu during its social and economic transformation until 2050. EnergyPLAN is the chosen energy system analysis tool, since it accounts for all sectors of the energy system that needs to be considered when integrating large-scale renewable energy. A current policy scenario (CPS) based on current energy policies and an ambitious policy scenario (APS) based on large-scale integration of renewable energy and ambitious measures of energy efficiency improvement are proposed. The two energy pathways are modeled and compared in terms of technology combination, non-fossil fuel shares of primary energy supply, socioeconomic costs, and CO 2 emissions. The insights from these pathways can provide valuable input for Jiangsu's future energy policies. - Highlights: ► An integrated energy pathway is designed for Jiangsu province by 2050. ► A current policy scenario and an ambitious policy scenario are modeled and assessed. ► The ambitious policy scenario can help stabilize CO 2 emissions and achieve better economy. ► The next 5–10 years would be a key period for Jiangsu's energy system transition. ► Several policy suggestions have been proposed.

  4. Energy absorption buildup factors of human organs and tissues at energies and penetration depths relevant for radiotherapy and diagnostics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manohara, S. R.; Hanagodimath, S. M.; Gerward, Leif

    2011-01-01

    Energy absorption geometric progression (GP) fitting parameters and the corresponding buildup factors have been computed for human organs and tissues, such as adipose tissue, blood (whole), cortical bone, brain (grey/white matter), breast tissue, eye lens, lung tissue, skeletal muscle, ovary......, testis, soft tissue, and soft tissue (4-component), for the photon energy range 0.015-15 MeV and for penetration depths up to 40 mfp (mean free path). The chemical composition of human organs and tissues is seen to influence the energy absorption buildup factors. It is also found that the buildup factor...... of human organs and tissues changes significantly with the change of incident photon energy and effective atomic number, Zeff. These changes are due to the dominance of different photon interaction processes in different energy regions and different chemical compositions of human organs and tissues...

  5. Cost allocation model for distribution networks considering high penetration of distributed energy resources

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soares, Tiago; Pereira, Fábio; Morais, Hugo

    2015-01-01

    The high penetration of distributed energy resources (DER) in distribution networks and the competitive environment of electricity markets impose the use of new approaches in several domains. The network cost allocation, traditionally used in transmission networks, should be adapted and used...... in the distribution networks considering the specifications of the connected resources. The main goal is to develop a fairer methodology trying to distribute the distribution network use costs to all players which are using the network in each period. In this paper, a model considering different type of costs (fixed......, losses, and congestion costs) is proposed comprising the use of a large set of DER, namely distributed generation (DG), demand response (DR) of direct load control type, energy storage systems (ESS), and electric vehicles with capability of discharging energy to the network, which is known as vehicle...

  6. Influence factors and corrections of low-energy γ-ray penetration in ash analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheng Bo; Tuo Xianguo; Zhou Jianbin; Tong Yunfu

    2002-01-01

    The author introduces the system of the coal ash analyzer. This system is based on the low-energy γ-ray source 241 Am emitted two kinds of energy peaks 26.4 keV and 59.6 keV to analyze the ash in coal with the penetration way. The author also offers the factors to influence the accuracy of ash analysis, such as the size of coal, the environmental temperature, the important elements in coal, and water in coal too. At the same time, depending on the cause of the factors, it offer some methods of correction such as the way of the auto-hold energy peak, the way of the auto-compensation way, and so on. The author also mentions the other influence factors of the measurement accuracy to be noticed during the experiment. All these aim at clearing off the influence factors of measurement accuracy through the experiments

  7. Wind energy in China. Current scenario and future perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Changliang, Xia; Zhanfeng, Song

    2009-01-01

    Wind power in China registered a record level of expansion recently, and has doubled its total capacity every year since 2004. Many experts believe that China will be central to the future of the global wind energy market. Consequently, the growth pattern of wind power in China may be crucial to the further development of the global wind market. This paper firstly presented an overview of wind energy potential in China and reviewed the national wind power development course in detail. Based on the installed wind capacity in China over the past 18 years and the technical potential of wind energy resources, the growth pattern was modeled in this study for the purpose of prospect analysis, in order to obtain projections concerning the development potential. The future perspectives of wind energy development in China are predicted and analyzed. This study provides a comprehensive overview of the current status of wind power in China and some insights into the prospects of China's wind power market, which is emerging as a new superpower in the global wind industry. (author)

  8. vNet Zero Energy for Radio Base Stations- Balearic Scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sabater, Pere; Mihovska, Albena Dimitrova; Pol, Andreu Moia

    2016-01-01

    The Balearic Islands have one of the best telecommunications infrastructures in Spain, with more than 1500 Radio Base Stations (RBS) covering a total surface of 4.991,66 km². This archipelago has high energy consumption, with high CO2 emissions, due to an electrical energy production system mainly...... based on coal and fossil fuels which is not an environmentally sustainable scenario. The aim of this study is to identify the processes that would reduce the energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, designing a target scenario featuring "zero CO2 emissions" and "100% renewable energies" in RBS....... The energy costs, CO2 emissions and data traffic data used for the study are generated by a sample of RBS from the Balearic Islands. The results are shown in terms of energy performance for a normal and net zero emissions scenarios....

  9. Priority order in using biomass resources - Energy systems analyses of future scenarios for Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kwon, Pil Seok; Østergaard, Poul Alberg

    2013-01-01

    . This article compares the value of using biomass as a heat source and for electricity generation in a 100% renewable energy system context. The comparison is done by assuming an incremental decrease in the biomass available for the electricity and heat sector, respectively. The assumed scenarios......According to some future Danish energy scenarios, biomass will become one of the two main pillars of the future energy system accompanied by wind power. The biomass can be used for generating heat and electricity, and as a transportation fuel in a future energy system according to the scenarios...... for the decrease of biomass are made by use of an hourly energy system analysis model, EnergyPLAN. The results are shown in terms of system configuration, biomass fuel efficiency, system cost, and impacts on the export of electricity. It is concluded that the reduction of biomass in the heat sector is better than...

  10. Using scenarios of North Slope energy and resource development to assess research and monitoring needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payne, J. F.

    2016-12-01

    Significant Arctic environmental and socio-economic change has been observed on the North Slope of Alaska, presenting challenges for resident communities and management agencies that need to adapt to future changes that are difficult to model or predict. Continued climate change coupled with new or modified energy development could substantially alter the landscape and ecosystem in the future. The North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) recognized the value of using a participatory scenarios process to consider plausible future energy and resource development scenarios through the year 2040 to help identify and prioritize research and monitoring needs on the North Slope. The scenarios process engaged diverse stakeholders, including subject matter experts and local knowledge holders. Through identification and ranking of key drivers and uncertainties relevant to the focus of the study, a series of spatially explicit scenarios was developed, analyzed in terms of low, medium and high development activities. Climate change and economic factors were key drivers affecting plausible energy development scenarios. The implications from each of the scenarios were then used to identify important research and monitoring activities and their relevant spatial scales. The scenarios project identified over 40 research and monitoring needs. The top five research needs addressed data gaps and key concerns related to how the scenarios could affect: hunting and trapping on land, health and community well-being, permafrost and hydrology, marine mammal subsistence and potential marine oil spills. The use of a participatory scenarios process was essential for identifying a range of plausible energy and resource development scenarios using a framework that involved a systematic assessment of complex interacting drivers of change, consideration of key uncertainties, and transparency throughout the project.

  11. Gravity resonance spectroscopy constrains dark energy and dark matter scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenke, T; Cronenberg, G; Burgdörfer, J; Chizhova, L A; Geltenbort, P; Ivanov, A N; Lauer, T; Lins, T; Rotter, S; Saul, H; Schmidt, U; Abele, H

    2014-04-18

    We report on precision resonance spectroscopy measurements of quantum states of ultracold neutrons confined above the surface of a horizontal mirror by the gravity potential of Earth. Resonant transitions between several of the lowest quantum states are observed for the first time. These measurements demonstrate that Newton's inverse square law of gravity is understood at micron distances on an energy scale of 10-14  eV. At this level of precision, we are able to provide constraints on any possible gravitylike interaction. In particular, a dark energy chameleon field is excluded for values of the coupling constant β>5.8×108 at 95% confidence level (C.L.), and an attractive (repulsive) dark matter axionlike spin-mass coupling is excluded for the coupling strength gsgp>3.7×10-16 (5.3×10-16) at a Yukawa length of λ=20  μm (95% C.L.).

  12. Exploring nuclear energy scenarios - implications of technology and fuel cycle choices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rayment, Fiona; Mathers, Dan; Gregg, Robert

    2014-01-01

    Nuclear Energy is recognised globally as a mature, reliable low carbon technology with a secure and abundant fuel source. Within the UK, Nuclear Energy is an essential contributor to the energy mix and as such a decision has been made to refresh the current nuclear energy plants to at least replacement of the existing nuclear fleet. This will mean the building of new nuclear power plant to ensure energy production of 16 GWe per annum. However it is also recognised that this may not be enough and as such expansion scenarios ranging from replacement of the existing fleet to 75 GWe nuclear energy capacity are being considered (see appendix). Within these energy scenarios, a variety of options are being evaluated including electricity generation only, electricity generation plus heat, open versus closed fuel cycles, Generation III versus Generation IV systems and combinations of the above. What is clear is that the deciding factor on the type and mix of any energy programme will not be on technology choice alone. Instead a complex mix of Government policy, relative cost of nuclear power, market decisions and public opinion will influence the rate and direction of growth of any future energy programme. The UK National Nuclear Laboratory has supported this work through the use and development of a variety of assessment and modelling techniques. When assessing nuclear energy scenarios, the technology chosen will impact on a number of parameters within each scenario which includes but is not limited to: - Economics, - Nuclear energy demand, - Fuel Supply, - Spent fuel storage / recycle, - Geological repository volumetric and radiological capacity, - Sustainability - effective resource utilisation, - Technology viability and readiness level. A number of assessment and modelling techniques have been developed and are described further. In particular, they examine fuel cycle options for a number of nuclear energy scenarios, whilst exploring key implications for a particular

  13. Multicriteria Spatial Decision Support Systems for Future Urban Energy Retrofitting Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrizia Lombardi

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, there is an increasing concern about sustainable urban energy development taking into account national priorities of each city. Many cities have started to define future strategies and plans to reduce energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Urban energy scenarios involve the consideration of a wide range of conflicting criteria, both socio-economic and environmental ones. Moreover, decision-makers (DMs require proper tools that can support their choices in a context of multiple stakeholders and a long-term perspective. In this context, Multicriteria Spatial Decision Support Systems (MC-SDSS are often used in order to define and analyze urban scenarios since they support the comparison of different solutions, based on a combination of multiple factors. The main problem, in relation to urban energy retrofitting scenarios, is the lack of appropriate knowledge and evaluation criteria. The latter are crucial for delivering and assessing urban energy scenarios through a MC-SDSS tool. The main goal of this paper is to analyze and test two different methods for the definition and ranking of the evaluation criteria. More specifically, the paper presents an on-going research study related to the development of a MC-SDSS tool able to identify and evaluate alternative energy urban scenarios in a long-term period perspective. This study refers to two Smart City and Communities research projects, namely: DIMMER (District Information Modeling and Management for Energy Reduction and EEB (Zero Energy Buildings in Smart Urban Districts.

  14. An Energy and Application Scenario Aware Active RFID Protocol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nilsson Björn

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The communication protocol used is a key issue in order to make the most of the advantages of active RFID technologies. In this paper we introduce a carrier sense medium access data communication protocol that dynamically adjusts its back-off algorithm to best suit the actual application at hand. Based on a simulation study of the effect on tag energy cost, read-out delay, and message throughput incurred by some typical back-off algorithms in a CSMA/CA (Carrier Sense Multiple Access/Collision Avoidance active RFID protocol, we conclude that by dynamic tuning of the initial contention window size and back-off interval coefficient, tag energy consumption and read-out delay can be significantly lowered. We show that it is possible to decrease the energy consumption per tag payload delivery with more than 10 times, resulting in a 50% increase in tag battery lifetime. We also discuss the advantage of being able to predict the number of tags present at the RFID-reader as well as ways of doing it.

  15. Energy perspectives of the France by 2020-2050. Energy scenario; Perspectives energetiques de la France a l'horizon 2020-2050. Scenarios energetiques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-09-15

    The aim of the working group was to realize quantitative approaches of the french energy system by 2020-2050 supporting the reflexions of the Energy Commission. The presented scenario are not prevision of the future. They just allow, in function of the hypothesis and the models used, to establish an approach of the consequences in term of the final energy demand. Two simulation tools were used and described in the chapter 3: Medpro-Poles and Markal-Times. The scenario are analyzed in the chapters 4 and 5. Results allow to see how the proposed measures are sufficient to reach in France the main objectives proposed by the european union. (A.L.B.)

  16. The energy consumption of private households 1990 - 2035 - Results of scenarios I - IV

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hofer, P.

    2007-01-01

    This comprehensive report for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) presents four scenarios concerning the development of energy consumption in Swiss private households for the period 1990 - 2035. The four scenarios - status quo, increased co-operation between the state and the economy with various levies, global reduction of energy consumption and, finally, scenario IV 'on the way to a 2000-Watt Society' - are briefly described. In particular, the scenarios are examined for various sensitivities: high gross domestic product GDP, high prices and warmer climate. The results of the sensitivity analyses are compared and discussed and the necessary instruments are examined. This comprehensive report contains a large number of data-tables and graphical representations

  17. The energy consumption of the services and farming sectors 1990 - 2035 - Results of scenarios I - IV

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aebischer, B.; Catenazzi, G.

    2007-01-01

    This comprehensive report for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) presents four scenarios concerning the development of energy consumption in the services sector and for farming for the period 1990 - 2035. The four scenarios - status quo, increased co-operation between the state and the economy with various levies, global reduction of energy consumption and, finally, scenario IV 'on the way to a 2000-Watt Society' - are briefly described. In particular, the scenarios are examined for various sensitivities: high gross domestic product GDP, CO 2 levy, high prices and warmer climate. The models and methods used are examined and examples of their use are quoted. The results of the sensitivity analyses are compared and discussed and the necessary instruments are examined. This comprehensive report contains a large number of data-tables and graphical representations

  18. Multi-criteria ranking of energy generation scenarios with Monte Carlo simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baležentis, Tomas; Streimikiene, Dalia

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Two advanced optimization models were applied for EU energy policy scenarios development. • Several advanced MCDA were applied for energy policy scenarios ranking: WASPAS, ARAS, TOPSIS. • A Monte Carlo simulation was applied for sensitivity analysis of scenarios ranking. • New policy insights in terms of energy scenarios forecasting were provided based on research conducted. - Abstract: Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are omnipresent in energy policy analysis. Even though IAMs can successfully handle uncertainty pertinent to energy planning problems, they render multiple variables as outputs of the modelling. Therefore, policy makers are faced with multiple energy development scenarios and goals. Specifically, technical, environmental, and economic aspects are represented by multiple criteria, which, in turn, are related to conflicting objectives. Preferences of decision makers need to be taken into account in order to facilitate effective energy planning. Multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) tools are relevant in aggregating diverse information and thus comparing alternative energy planning options. The paper aims at ranking European Union (EU) energy development scenarios based on several IAMs with respect to multiple criteria. By doing so, we account for uncertainty surrounding policy priorities outside the IAM. In order to follow a sustainable approach, the ranking of policy options is based on EU energy policy priorities: energy efficiency improvements, increased use of renewables, reduction in and low mitigations costs of GHG emission. The ranking of scenarios is based on the estimates rendered by the two advanced IAMs relying on different approaches, namely TIAM and WITCH. The data are fed into the three MCDM techniques: the method of weighted aggregated sum/product assessment (WASPAS), the Additive Ratio Assessment (ARAS) method, and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS). As MCDM techniques allow

  19. Scenarios of application of energy certification procedure for residential buildings in Lebanon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cantin, R.; Mourtada, A.; Guarracino, G.; Adra, N.; Nasser, M.; Maamari, F.

    2007-01-01

    This paper describes the results of a French-Lebanese scientific cooperation, between 2001 and 2005, about 'Rational use of energy in the residential buildings in Lebanon and adaptation of an energy certification procedure'. The aim of this project is to promote the energy efficiency in the existing residential buildings in Lebanon, using an energy certification procedure, and to evaluate the energy certification foresight with prospective methods. The paper first describes an energy investigation in Lebanese residential buildings, and the energy certification procedure. It presents the foresight methodology implemented to identify the key variables and the actors. Finally, the paper exposes the morphological method which allows to elaborate three scenarios of energy performance certification. These scenarios are presented in order to provide a decision making for the actors of the Lebanese energy policy

  20. CEESA 100% Renewable Energy Transport Scenarios towards 2050

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mathiesen, Brian Vad; Connolly, David; Lund, Henrik

    the availability of sustainable resources. The results indicate that electricity should be prioritised as much as is economically possible in the transport sector, which is primarily for cars and rail. Other modes, such as trucks, ships, and aeroplanes will require fuels with a high energy density. Replacing oil...... in these modes with existing biofuels is likely to result in an over-consumption of biomass, thus resulting in an unsustainable solution. In this study, new electrofuel pathways are created outlining how electricity can be combined with biomass to create new fuels for these modes. The amount of electrofuel...

  1. Uranium resources, scenarios, nuclear and energy dynamics - 5200

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bidaud, A.; Mima, S.; Criqui, P.; Gabriel, S.; Monnet, A.; Mathonniere, G.; Cuney, M.; Bruneton, P.

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we present a new model of the impact of uranium scarcity on the development of nuclear reactors. A dynamic simulation of coupled supply and demand of energy, resources and nuclear reactors is done with the global model Prospective Outlook for Long Term Energy Supply (POLES) over this century. In this model, both electricity demand and uranium supply are not independent of the cost of all base load electricity suppliers. Only two nuclear reactor types are modeled in POLES. Globally one has the characteristics of a Thermal Neutron Reactor (TR) and the other one has the ones of Fast Breeder Reactors (FBR). The results show that If both generations of nuclear reactors can be competitive with other sources, we see that in many countries their development would probably be limited by the availability of natural and recycled materials. Depending on the locally available alternative (hydro, coal) and local regulatory framework (safety and waste management for nuclear reactors but also environmental constraints such as CO 2 targets), both nuclear technologies could be developed. The advantage of the new model is that it avoids the difficult question of defining 'ultimate resources'. The drawback is that it needs a description of the volume of uranium resources but also of the link between the cost and the potential production capacities of these resources

  2. The 2 oC scenario-A sustainable world energy perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krewitt, Wolfram; Simon, Sonja; Graus, Wina; Teske, Sven; Zervos, Arthouros; Schaefer, Oliver

    2007-01-01

    A target-oriented scenario of future energy demand and supply is developed in a backcasting process. The main target is to reduce global CO 2 emissions to around 10 Gt/a in 2050, thus limiting global average temperature increase to 2 o C and preventing dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. A 10-region energy system model is used for simulating global energy supply strategies. A review of sector and region-specific energy efficiency measures resulted in the specification of a global energy demand scenario incorporating strong energy efficiency measures. The corresponding supply scenario has been developed in an iterative process in close cooperation with stakeholders and regional counterparts from academia, NGOs and the renewable energy industry. The 2 o C scenario shows that renewable energy could provide as much as half of the world's energy needs by 2050. Developing countries can virtually stabilise their CO 2 emissions, while at the same time increasing energy consumption through economic growth. OECD countries will be able to reduce their emissions by up to 80%

  3. Transport energy demand in Andorra. Assessing private car futures through sensitivity and scenario analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travesset-Baro, Oriol; Gallachóir, Brian P.Ó.; Jover, Eric; Rosas-Casals, Marti

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a model which estimates current car fleet energy consumption in Andorra and forecasts such consumption as a reference scenario. The base-year model is built through a bottom-up methodology using vehicle registration and technical inspection data. The model forecasts energy consumption up to 2050, taking into account the fleet structure, the car survival profile, trends in activity of the various car categories, and the fuel price and income elasticities that affect car stock and total fleet activity. It provides an initial estimate of private car energy demand in Andorra and charts a baseline scenario that describes a hypothetical future based on historical trends. A local sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine the most sensitive input parameters and study the effect of its variability. In addition, the scenario analysis explores the most uncertain future aspects which can cause important variability in the results with respect to the Reference scenario and provides a broad estimate of potential energy savings related to different policy strategies. - Highlights: •A private car energy model is built using aggregated available data. •Andorra's current car fleet energy consumption is estimated and forecasted to 2050. •Potential energy savings have been estimated using sensitivity and scenario analysis.

  4. CMB lensing constraints on dark energy and modified gravity scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calabrese, Erminia; Cooray, Asantha; Martinelli, Matteo; Melchiorri, Alessandro; Pagano, Luca; Slosar, Anze; Smoot, George F.

    2009-01-01

    Weak gravitational lensing leaves a characteristic imprint on the cosmic microwave background temperature and polarization angular power spectra. Here, we investigate the possible constraints on the integrated lensing potential from future cosmic microwave background angular spectra measurements expected from Planck and EPIC. We find that Planck and EPIC will constrain the amplitude of the integrated projected potential responsible for lensing at 6% and 1% level, respectively, with very little sensitivity to the shape of the lensing potential. We discuss the implications of such a measurement in constraining dark energy and modified gravity scalar-tensor theories. We then discuss the impact of a wrong assumption on the weak lensing potential amplitude on cosmological parameter inference.

  5. Adapting for uncertainty : a scenario analysis of U.S. technology energy futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laitner, J.A.; Hanson, D.A.; Mintzner, I.; Leonard, J.A.

    2006-01-01

    The pattern of future evolution for United States (US) energy markets is highly uncertain at this time. This article provided details of a study using a scenario analysis technique to investigate key energy issues affecting decision-making processes in the United States. Four scenarios were used to examine the driving forces and critical uncertainties that may shape United States energy markets and the economy for the next 50 years: (1) a reference scenario benchmarked to the 2002 annual energy outlook forecast, (2) abundant and inexpensive supplies of oil and gas, (3) a chaotic future beset with international conflict, faltering new technologies, environmental policy difficulties and slowed economic growth, and (4) a technology-driven market in which a variety of forces converge to reshape the energy sector. Each of the scenarios was quantified using a computable general equilibrium model known as the All Modular Industry Growth Assessment (AMIGA) model. Results suggested that the range of different outcomes for the US is broad. However, energy use is expected to increase in all 4 scenarios. It was observed that the introduction of policies to encourage capital stock turnover and accelerate the commercialization of high efficiency, low-emissions technologies may reduce future primary energy demand. The analysis also showed that lower energy prices may lead to higher economic growth. Policies introduced to improve energy efficiency and accelerate the introduction of new technologies did not appreciably reduce the prospects for economic growth. Results also suggested that lower fossil fuel prices discourage investments in energy efficiency or new technologies and may mask the task of responding to future surprises. It was concluded that an investment path that emphasizes both energy efficiency improvements and advanced energy supply technologies will provide economic growth conditions similar to the implementation of lower energy prices. 11 refs., 1 tab., 2 figs

  6. New ways for the integrated appraisal of national energy scenarios: The case of renewable energy use in Austria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Madlener, Reinhard; Kowalski, Katharina; Stagl, Sigrid

    2007-01-01

    Increasing the contribution of renewable energy sources in heat and electricity production is a nationally and internationally acknowledged aim for sustainable development. In this context, the participatory development and appraisal of energy scenarios can be useful for enabling stakeholders to explore future energy options and for supporting the national policy discourse. The five renewable energy scenarios considered refer to Austria in the year 2020. The innovative methodology applied, which was developed as part of the ARTEMIS project, examines possible energy futures paths by combining (1) scenario development; (2) multi-criteria evaluation; and (3) a participatory process with stakeholders and energy experts on the national level. Economic, social, environmental and technological impacts as well as revealed social preferences are used for the ranking of the scenarios. Due to the paramount importance of bioenergy in Austria, special emphasis in the scenario development is put on the contribution of biomass. Two main bioenergy issues and their consideration in the ARTEMIS project are explicitly addressed in this paper: the cascadic utilisation of biomass resources and the demand for land area and land area conflicts. Overall, we demonstrate how the methodology can be applied in practice and what insights policy-makers can gain from it. We also explore the methodology's limitations, especially regarding the effort required for participatory scenario building and the availability of stakeholders

  7. A nonparametric approach for evaluating long-term energy policy scenarios: An application to the Greek energy system

    OpenAIRE

    Halkos, George; Tzeremes, Nickolaos; Tzeremes, Panagiotis

    2014-01-01

    This paper by using Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) constructs four different renewable energy scenarios for the Greek transport, energy, and industry sectors. By projecting the demand for renewable energy and the associated resulting carbon dioxide emissions up to the years 2020 and 2030, the paper applies in a second stage data envelopment analysis (DEA) evaluating the Greek renewable energy policy. As a result, it provides a quantitative measure for future renewable e...

  8. A novel method for energy harvesting simulation based on scenario generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhe; Li, Taoshen; Xiao, Nan; Ye, Jin; Wu, Min

    2018-06-01

    Energy harvesting network (EHN) is a new form of computer networks. It converts ambient energy into usable electric energy and supply the electrical energy as a primary or secondary power source to the communication devices. However, most of the EHN uses the analytical probability distribution function to describe the energy harvesting process, which cannot accurately identify the actual situation for the lack of authenticity. We propose an EHN simulation method based on scenario generation in this paper. Firstly, instead of setting a probability distribution in advance, it uses optimal scenario reduction technology to generate representative scenarios in single period based on the historical data of the harvested energy. Secondly, it uses homogeneous simulated annealing algorithm to generate optimal daily energy harvesting scenario sequences to get a more accurate simulation of the random characteristics of the energy harvesting network. Then taking the actual wind power data as an example, the accuracy and stability of the method are verified by comparing with the real data. Finally, we cite an instance to optimize the network throughput, which indicate the feasibility and effectiveness of the method we proposed from the optimal solution and data analysis in energy harvesting simulation.

  9. Multi-Criteria Analysis of Electricity Generation Scenarios for Sustainable Energy Planning in Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nayyar Hussain Mirjat

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The now over a decade-long electricity crisis in Pakistan has adversely affected the socio-economic development of the country. This situation is mainly due to a lack of sustainable energy planning and policy formulation. In this context, energy models can be of great help but only a handful of such efforts have been undertaken in Pakistan. Two key shortcomings pertaining to energy models lead to their low utilization in developing countries. First, the models do not effectively make decisions, but rather provide a set of alternatives based on modeling parameters; and secondly, the complexity of these models is often poorly understood by the decision makers. As such, in this study, the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP methodology of Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM has been used for the sustainability assessment of energy modeling results for long-term electricity planning. The four scenario alternatives developed in the energy modeling effort, Reference (REF, Renewable Energy Technologies (RET, Clean Coal Maximum (CCM and Energy Efficiency and Conservation (EEC, have been ranked using the Expert Choice® tool based on the AHP methodology. The AHP decision support framework of this study revealed the EEC scenario as the most favorable electricity generation scenario followed by the REF, RET and CCM scenarios. Besides that, this study proposes policy recommendations to undertake integrated energy modeling and decision analysis for sustainable energy planning in Pakistan.

  10. The implications of future building scenarios for long-term building energy research and development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flynn, W.T.

    1986-12-01

    This report presents a discussion of alternative future scenarios of the building environment to the year 2010 and assesses the implications these scenarios present for long-term building energy R and D. The scenarios and energy R and D implications derived from them are intended to serve as the basis from which a strategic plan can be developed for the management of R and D programs conducted by the Office of Buildings and Community Systems, US Department of Energy. The scenarios and analysis presented here have relevance not only for government R and D programs; on the contrary, it is hoped that the results of this effort will be of interest and useful to researchers in both private and public sector organizations that deal with building energy R and D. Making R and D decisions today based on an analysis that attempts to delineate the nexus of events 25 years in the future are clearly decisions made in the face of uncertainty. Yet, the effective management of R and D programs requires a future-directed understanding of markets, technological developments, and environmental factors, as well as their interactions. The analysis presented in this report is designed to serve that need. Although the probability of any particular scenario actually occurring is uncertain, the scenarios to be presented are sufficiently robust to set bounds within which to examine the interaction of forces that will shape the future building environment.

  11. Scenario for Precision Beam Energy Calibration in FCC-ee

    CERN Document Server

    Koop, I A

    2015-01-01

    The resonance depolarization method was very successfully used in the experiments at LEP, where the mass of the Z-boson was determined with the relative uncertainty [1, 2]. In the future FCC-ee circular electron-positron collider the luminosity at Z-peak (beam energy 45.5 GeV) is expected be 4-5 orders of magnitude higher and one goal is to perform the same experiments as at LEP, but with much greater accuracy, approaching the level of [3]. Obviously this can be done only by measuring the spin precession frequency. But there are many problems which still need to be solved on the way towards a complete design. The first one: the self-polarization takes too long a time. The Sokolov-Ternov polarization time is about 250 hours at Z-peak. One approach is to install the special field-asymmetric polarizing wigglers to make the self-polarization time much shorter [4, 5] and to utilize only few percent of the polarization degree to measure the resonance spin precession frequency. But these very strong wigglers substan...

  12. On the Use of Energy Storage Technologies for Regulation Services in Electric Power Systems with Significant Penetration of Wind Energy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yang, Bo; Makarov, Yuri; Desteese, John

    2008-01-01

    Energy produced by intermittent renewable resources is sharply increasing in the United States. At high penetration levels, volatility of wind power production could cause additional problems for the power system balancing functions such as regulation. This paper reports some partial results...... and frequently changing regulation signal. Several energy storage options have been analyzed based on thirteen selection criteria. The evaluation process resulted in the selection of flywheels, pumped hydro electric power (or conventional hydro electric power) plant and sodium sulfur or nickel cadmium batteries...... of a project work, recently conducted by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for Bonneville Power Administration (BPA). The project proposes to mitigate additional intermittency with the help of Wide Area Energy Management System (WAEMS) that would provide a two-way simultaneous regulation service...

  13. Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future: Interlaboratory Working Group on Energy-Efficient and Clean-Energy Technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None, None

    2000-12-18

    This study estimates the potential for public policies and R and D programs to foster clean energy technology solutions to the energy and environmental challenges facing the nation. These challenges include global climate change, air pollution, oil dependence, and inefficiencies in the production and use of energy. The study uses a scenario-based approach to examine alternative portfolios of public policies and technologies. Although the report makes no policy recommendations, it does present policies that could lead to impressive advances in the development and deployment of clean energy technologies without significant net economic impacts. Appendices are available electronically at: www.nrel.gov/docs/fy01osti/29379appendices.pdf (6.4 MB).

  14. Renewable energy technology portfolio planning with scenario analysis: A case study for Taiwan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, T.-Y.; Yu, Oliver S.; Hsu, George Jyh-yih; Hsu, Fang-Ming; Sung, W.-N.

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents the results of a case study of applying a systematic and proven process of technology portfolio planning with the use of scenario analysis to renewable energy developments in Taiwan. The planning process starts with decision values of technology development based on a survey of society leaders. It then generates, based on expert opinions and literature search, a set of major technology alternatives, which in this study include: wind energy, photovoltaic, bio-energy, solar thermal power, ocean energy, and geothermal energy. Through a committee of technical experts with diversified professional backgrounds, the process in this study next constructs three scenarios ('Season in the Sun', 'More Desire than Energy', and 'Castle in the Air') to encompass future uncertainties in the relationships between the technology alternatives and the decision values. Finally, through a second committee of professionals, the process assesses the importance and risks of these alternative technologies and develops a general strategic plan for the renewable energy technology portfolio that is responsive and robust for the future scenarios. The most important contributions of this paper are the clear description of the systematic process of technology portfolio planning and scenario analysis, the detailed demonstration of their application through a case study on the renewable energy development in Taiwan, and the valuable results and insights gained from the application.

  15. Fuel consumption from vehicles of China until 2030 in energy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Qingyu; Tian Weili; Zheng Yingyue; Zhang Lili

    2010-01-01

    Estimation of fuel (gasoline and diesel) consumption for vehicles in China under different long-term energy policy scenarios is presented here. The fuel economy of different vehicle types is subject to variation of government regulations; hence the fuel consumption of passenger cars (PCs), light trucks (Lts), heavy trucks (Hts), buses and motor cycles (MCs) are calculated with respect to (i) the number of vehicles, (ii) distance traveled, and (iii) fuel economy. On the other hand, the consumption rate of alternative energy sources (i.e. ethanol, methanol, biomass-diesel and CNG) is not evaluated here. The number of vehicles is evaluated using the economic elastic coefficient method, relating to per capita gross domestic product (GDP) from 1997 to 2007. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) system software is employed to develop a simple model to project fuel consumption in China until 2030 under these scenarios. Three energy consumption decrease scenarios are designed to estimate the reduction of fuel consumption: (i) 'business as usual' (BAU); (ii) 'advanced fuel economy' (AFE); and (iii) 'alternative energy replacement' (AER). It is shown that fuel consumption is predicted to reach 992.28 Mtoe (million tons oil equivalent) with the BAU scenario by 2030. In the AFE and AER scenarios, fuel consumption is predicted to be 734.68 and 600.36 Mtoe, respectively, by 2030. In the AER scenario, fuel consumption in 2030 will be reduced by 391.92 (39.50%) and 134.29 (18.28%) Mtoe in comparison to the BAU and AFE scenarios, respectively. In conclusion, our models indicate that the energy conservation policies introduced by governmental institutions are potentially viable, as long as they are effectively implemented.

  16. Exploring drivers of energy demand in Cyprus – Scenarios and policy options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zachariadis, Theodoros; Taibi, Emanuele

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes a new set of energy demand forecasts for the Republic of Cyprus up to the year 2040, which have been developed in support of the renewable energy roadmap that was prepared for national authorities by the International Renewable Energy Agency. The analysis takes into account national end-use data from the residential and tertiary sector that had not been exploited up to now. Four final energy demand scenarios with diverging assumptions were defined in this study, offering a wide range of possible outcomes up to 2040; in addition, four alternative scenarios were applied for sensitivity analysis. Two of these scenarios can be regarded as those continuing the trends of the recent past in Cyprus (prior to the economic and financial downturn of years 2011–2014). However, a more rigorous implementation of energy efficiency measures in buildings and transport, as defined in the fourth scenario of this study, is also realistic; despite its potential costs, it might allow Cyprus both to decrease its carbon emissions in line with the long-term EU decarbonisation targets, and to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels, thereby promoting energy efficiency as an important climate change adaptation measure. - Highlights: • Energy demand forecasts for the Republic of Cyprus up to the year 2040 are presented. • Study in the frame of renewable energy roadmap for Cyprus supported by IRENA. • Four scenarios considered, some allowing for breaks with past trends of energy use. • Rigorous implementation of energy efficiency measures is realistic. • Strong energy savings required in line with EU decarbonisation targets.

  17. Scenario analysis of energy-based low-carbon development in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Yun; Hao, Fanghua; Meng, Wei; Fu, Jiafeng

    2014-08-01

    China's increasing energy consumption and coal-dominant energy structure have contributed not only to severe environmental pollution, but also to global climate change. This article begins with a brief review of China's primary energy use and associated environmental problems and health risks. To analyze the potential of China's transition to low-carbon development, three scenarios are constructed to simulate energy demand and CO₂ emission trends in China up to 2050 by using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model. Simulation results show that with the assumption of an average annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of 6.45%, total primary energy demand is expected to increase by 63.4%, 48.8% and 12.2% under the Business as Usual (BaU), Carbon Reduction (CR) and Integrated Low Carbon Economy (ILCE) scenarios in 2050 from the 2009 levels. Total energy-related CO₂ emissions will increase from 6.7 billiontons in 2009 to 9.5, 11, 11.6 and 11.2 billiontons; 8.2, 9.2, 9.6 and 9 billiontons; 7.1, 7.4, 7.2 and 6.4 billiontons in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 under the BaU, CR and ILCE scenarios, respectively. Total CO₂ emission will drop by 19.6% and 42.9% under the CR and ILCE scenarios in 2050, compared with the BaU scenario. To realize a substantial cut in energy consumption and carbon emissions, China needs to make a long-term low-carbon development strategy targeting further improvement of energy efficiency, optimization of energy structure, deployment of clean coal technology and use of market-based economic instruments like energy/carbon taxation. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  18. LMP-based Pricing for Energy Storage in Local Market to Facilitate PV Penetration

    OpenAIRE

    Yan, Xiaohe; Gu, Chenghong; Li, Furong; Wang, Zhaoyu

    2018-01-01

    Increasing Photovoltaic (PV) penetration and low-carbon demand can potentially lead to two different flow peaks, generation and load, within distribution networks. This will not only constrain PV penetration but also pose serious threats to network reliability.

  19. Comparative analysis of hourly and dynamic power balancing models for validating future energy scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pillai, Jayakrishnan R.; Heussen, Kai; Østergaard, Poul Alberg

    2011-01-01

    Energy system analyses on the basis of fast and simple tools have proven particularly useful for interdisciplinary planning projects with frequent iterations and re-evaluation of alternative scenarios. As such, the tool “EnergyPLAN” is used for hourly balanced and spatially aggregate annual......, the model is verified on the basis of the existing energy mix on Bornholm as an islanded energy system. Future energy scenarios for the year 2030 are analysed to study a feasible technology mix for a higher share of wind power. Finally, the results of the hourly simulations are compared to dynamic frequency...... simulations incorporating the Vehicle-to-grid technology. The results indicate how the EnergyPLAN model may be improved in terms of intra-hour variability, stability and ancillary services to achieve a better reflection of energy and power capacity requirements....

  20. Particle Reduction Strategies - PAREST. Energy scenarios for PAREST. Sub-report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joerss, Wolfram; Degel, Melanie

    2013-01-01

    In the research project PAREST emission scenarios to 2020 for particulate matter (PM 10 und PM 2,5 ), and aerosol precursors SO 2 , NO x , NH 3 and NMVOC were prepared for Germany and Europe, mitigation measures evaluated and the results used to model the PM pollution load for Germany. In this part of the report to PAREST energy scenarios used for PAREST are presented. [de

  1. Africa energy future: Alternative scenarios and their implications for sustainable development strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ouedraogo, Nadia S.

    2017-01-01

    The long-term forecasting of energy supply and demand is of prime importance in Africa due to the steady increase in energy requirements, the non-availability of sufficient resources, the high dependence on fossil-fuels to meet these requirements, and the global concerns over the energy-induced environmental issues. This paper is concerned with modelling possible future paths for Africa's energy future and the related emissions. Future energy demand is forecasted based on socio-economic variables such as gross domestic product, income per capita, population, and urbanisation. The Long-range Energy Alternative Planning System (LEAP) modelling framework is employed to analyse and project energy demand and the related emissions under alternative strategies for the period of 2010–2040. Results of scenarios including business-as-usual (BAU) policies, moderate energy access and accelerate energy access policies, renewable energies promotion and energy efficiency policies and their environmental implications are provided. The study provides some policy insights and identifies synergies and trade-offs relating to the potential for energy policies to promote universal energy access, enable a transition to renewable energy, and mitigate climate change for a sustainable development. - Highlights: • Possible future paths for Africa's energy future and the related emissions are modelled. • Scenarios using an adaptation of Schwartz's scenario approach, under LEAP are developed. • Under the current energy policies, the universal access to modern energy will not be met by 2030. • Policies to accelerate the changes in energy structure are required for sustainable development. • Investing in Energy efficient strategies has emerged as one of the best solution.

  2. Energy Efficiency Road Mapping in Three Future Scenarios for Lao PDR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hajime Sasaki

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Climate change, pollution, and energy insecurity are among the greatest problems of our time. These problems are no longer issues in particular countries but international issues. Several framework conventions on these issues are now in place throughout the world, and developing countries are no exception. Energy efficiency is one of the important issues for developing countries. Lao PDR is one such country. This paper proposes a technology roadmap and policy recommendations for Lao PDR with consideration given to a wide range of economic and social impacts of prospective technologies. For the implementation of technology assessment in the formulation of an energy efficiency roadmap, we first elaborate the social and economic conditions of Lao PDR through preliminary research and field research, and then design three scenarios for a future Lao PDR. These three scenarios are as follows: 1. The "Poverty Reduction" scenario is for electrification rate improvement; 2. The "Industrial Creation" scenario is for stable domestic energy supply; and 3. The "GMS Integration" scenario is for the acquisition of foreign exchange by energy export.

  3. Greenhouse gas emissions from high demand, natural gas-intensive energy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Victor, D.G.

    1990-01-01

    Since coal and oil emit 70% and 30% more CO 2 per unit of energy than natural gas (methane), fuel switching to natural gas is an obvious pathway to lower CO 2 emissions and reduced theorized greenhouse warming. However, methane is, itself, a strong greenhouse gas so the CO 2 advantages of natural gas may be offset by leaks in the natural gas recovery and supply system. Simple models of atmospheric CO 2 and methane are used to test this hypothesis for several natural gas-intensive energy scenarios, including the work of Ausubel et al (1988). It is found that the methane leaks are significant and may increase the total 'greenhouse effect' from natural gas-intensive energy scenarios by 10%. Furthermore, because methane is short-lived in the atmosphere, leaking methane from natural gas-intensive, high energy growth scenarios effectively recharges the concentration of atmospheric methane continuously. For such scenarios, the problem of methane leaks is even more serious. A second objective is to explore some high demand scenarios that describe the role of methane leaks in the greenhouse tradeoff between gas and coal as energy sources. It is found that the uncertainty in the methane leaks from the natural gas system are large enough to consume the CO 2 advantages from using natural gas instead of coal for 20% of the market share. (author)

  4. Scenarios for a sustainable energy system in the Åland Islands in 2030

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Child, Michael; Nordling, Alexander; Breyer, Christian

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • A fully sustainable energy system for the Åland Islands is possible by 2030. • 100% RE-based domestic production can be achieved with or without reliance on imported energy. • A highly electrified transport sector results in lower annualised energy system costs. • Highly electrified transport may promote employment and international partnerships. • Energy system scenarios were simulated for the Åland Islands with the EnergyPLAN modelling tool. - Abstract: A fully sustainable energy system for the Åland islands is possible by 2030 based on the assumptions in this study. Several scenarios were constructed for the future energy system based on various combinations of domestic production of wind and solar photovoltaic power, expanded domestic energy storage solutions, electrified transport, and strategic energy carrier trade. Hourly analysis of scenarios using the EnergyPLAN tool shows that annualised costs of operating a future sustainable energy system for the year 2030 range between 225 and 247 M€/a compared to 229 M€/a for the business as usual case. However, this result is highly dependent on how vehicle and battery costs are accounted. A scenario featuring a highly electrified transport sector, including a wide range of terrestrial and aquatic forms of mobility, was among the most cost competitive solutions due to high levels of flexibility and electric storage harnessed in the energy system. In this scenario cost reductions were achieved as high capacities of electric vehicle battery storage resulted in less need for seasonal storage and synthetic fuel production in the form of Power-to-Gas technologies and offshore wind power capacity. Results also indicate that 100% renewable energy-based domestic energy production can be achieved in Åland, with or without reliance on imported energy carriers, such as sustainable biofuels or electricity. A demonstration of a highly electrified transport sector may also offer Åland society

  5. Promoting Decentralized Sustainable Energy Systems in Different Supply Scenarios: The Role of Autarky Aspiration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ecker, Franz; Hahnel, Ulf J. J.; Spada, Hans

    2017-01-01

    The development of decentralized renewable energy systems is of crucial importance for the decarbonization of energy generation worldwide. Purchase decisions regarding innovative energy systems depend to some extent on consumers’ perception of the systems’ degree of autarky. We assumed that, in addition to the energetic perspective, consumers associate other non-energetic facets such as independence, autonomy, self-sufficiency, or control with the concept of autarky. These psychological facets of autarky were expected to contribute to purchase decisions. In Study 1, participants (N = 168) evaluated three future energy supply scenarios. The scenarios varied regarding their range of autarky (household/neighborhood/small town), but the individually realized degree of energetic autarky did not vary. Participants reported a higher willingness to pay in connection with a higher perceived psychological autarky for the Household Scenario. Study 1’s findings were confirmed by Study 2, in which qualitative interviews (N = 13) also revealed that participants favored the Household Scenario on several points. These evaluations were driven by the anticipated psychological facets of autarky that is the subjective perception of being independent, autonomous, self-sufficient, energy secure, and of control. To promote an adoption of renewable energy systems, these psychological autarky facets need to be addressed. Enabling the people to self-determine, control, and secure their energy provision even in complex organizational settings in such a manner is likely to increase their acceptance and therefore foster the required social transition as a whole.

  6. Promoting Decentralized Sustainable Energy Systems in Different Supply Scenarios: The Role of Autarky Aspiration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franz Ecker

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The development of decentralized renewable energy systems is of crucial importance for the decarbonization of energy generation worldwide. Purchase decisions regarding innovative energy systems depend to some extent on consumers’ perception of the systems’ degree of autarky. We assumed that, in addition to the energetic perspective, consumers associate other non-energetic facets such as independence, autonomy, self-sufficiency, or control with the concept of autarky. These psychological facets of autarky were expected to contribute to purchase decisions. In Study 1, participants (N = 168 evaluated three future energy supply scenarios. The scenarios varied regarding their range of autarky (household/neighborhood/small town, but the individually realized degree of energetic autarky did not vary. Participants reported a higher willingness to pay in connection with a higher perceived psychological autarky for the Household Scenario. Study 1’s findings were confirmed by Study 2, in which qualitative interviews (N = 13 also revealed that participants favored the Household Scenario on several points. These evaluations were driven by the anticipated psychological facets of autarky that is the subjective perception of being independent, autonomous, self-sufficient, energy secure, and of control. To promote an adoption of renewable energy systems, these psychological autarky facets need to be addressed. Enabling the people to self-determine, control, and secure their energy provision even in complex organizational settings in such a manner is likely to increase their acceptance and therefore foster the required social transition as a whole.

  7. Promoting Decentralized Sustainable Energy Systems in Different Supply Scenarios: The Role of Autarky Aspiration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ecker, Franz, E-mail: franz.ecker@psychologie.uni-freiburg.de [Cognition, Action and Sustainability Unit, Department of Psychology, Albert-Ludwigs University of Freiburg, Freiburg (Germany); Hahnel, Ulf J. J. [Consumer Decision and Sustainable Behavior Lab, Department of Psychology, University of Geneva, Geneva (Switzerland); Spada, Hans [Cognition, Action and Sustainability Unit, Department of Psychology, Albert-Ludwigs University of Freiburg, Freiburg (Germany)

    2017-07-10

    The development of decentralized renewable energy systems is of crucial importance for the decarbonization of energy generation worldwide. Purchase decisions regarding innovative energy systems depend to some extent on consumers’ perception of the systems’ degree of autarky. We assumed that, in addition to the energetic perspective, consumers associate other non-energetic facets such as independence, autonomy, self-sufficiency, or control with the concept of autarky. These psychological facets of autarky were expected to contribute to purchase decisions. In Study 1, participants (N = 168) evaluated three future energy supply scenarios. The scenarios varied regarding their range of autarky (household/neighborhood/small town), but the individually realized degree of energetic autarky did not vary. Participants reported a higher willingness to pay in connection with a higher perceived psychological autarky for the Household Scenario. Study 1’s findings were confirmed by Study 2, in which qualitative interviews (N = 13) also revealed that participants favored the Household Scenario on several points. These evaluations were driven by the anticipated psychological facets of autarky that is the subjective perception of being independent, autonomous, self-sufficient, energy secure, and of control. To promote an adoption of renewable energy systems, these psychological autarky facets need to be addressed. Enabling the people to self-determine, control, and secure their energy provision even in complex organizational settings in such a manner is likely to increase their acceptance and therefore foster the required social transition as a whole.

  8. Variation of energy absorption buildup factors with incident photon energy and penetration depth for some commonly used solvents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Singh, Parjit S. [Department of Physics, Punjabi University, Patiala 147 002 (India)], E-mail: dr_parjit@hotmail.com; Singh, Tejbir [Department of Physics, Lovely Professional University, Phagwara 144 402 (India); Kaur, Paramjeet [IAS and Allied Services Training Centre, Punjabi University, Patiala 147 002 (India)

    2008-06-15

    G.P. fitting method has been used to compute energy absorption buildup factor of some commonly used solvents such as acetonitrile (C{sub 4}H{sub 3}N), butanol (C{sub 4}H{sub 9}OH), chlorobenzene (C{sub 6}H{sub 5}Cl), diethyl ether (C{sub 4}H{sub 10}O), ethanol (C{sub 2}H{sub 5}OH), methanol (CH{sub 3}OH), propanol (C{sub 3}H{sub 7}OH) and water (H{sub 2}O) for the wide energy range (0.015-15.0 MeV) up to the penetration depth of 10 mean free path. The variation of energy absorption buildup factor with chemical composition as well as incident photon energy for the selected solvents has been studied. It has been observed that the maximum value of energy absorption buildup factors shifts to the slightly higher incident photon energy with the increase in equivalent atomic number of the solvent and the solvent with least equivalent atomic number possesses the maximum value of energy absorption buildup factor.

  9. Perspectives of energy technologies: scenarios and strategies at the 2050 vista

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    Every two years, the International Energy Agency (IEA) publishes the 'Energy Technology Perspectives' (ETP) report which analyses the foreseeable energy scenarios and strategies at the 2050 vista and stresses on the best available technologies. For the first time, the IEA describes in this study a scenario allowing to divide by two the CO 2 emissions at the world scale, i.e. compatible with the 'factor 4' scenario of industrialized countries. The study estimates the R and D needs and the necessary additional investments to meet the different tendentious and voluntaristic scenarios proposed by the IEA. This 15. session of the cycle of energy-climate conferences aimed at presenting, from the ETP 2008 study, a thorough examination of the present day situation and perspectives of existing or future 'clean' energy technologies through the analysis of several scenarios. An examination of the interpretation of these scenarios at the France and European levels is made in order to define what should be the trends of public policies and international cooperation. This document gathers the transparencies of the two presentations given during this conference. The first presentation by Pieter Boot, Director of the Office of Sustainable Energy Policy and Technology of IEA, makes a synthesis of the ETP study and presents the recommendations of the agency. The second presentation by Olivier Appert, President of the French institute of petroleum (IFP), gives a counterpoint of the first presentation by considering the financing and acceptance aspects, in particular from the French point of view. Finally a debate with the audience completes the presentations. (J.S.)

  10. Report of the panel on the use of depleted uranium alloys for large caliber long rod kinetic energy penetrators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sandstrom, D.J.; Jessen, N.; Loewenstein, P.; Weirick, L.

    1980-01-01

    In early 1977 the National Materials Advisory Board, an operating unit in the Commission on Sociotechnical Systems of the National Research Council, NAS/NAE, formed a study committee on High Density Materials for Kinetic Energy Penetrators. The Specific objectives of the Committee were defined as follows. Assess the potential of two materials for use in kinetic energy penetrators, including such factors as: (a) properties (as applied to this application: strength, toughness, and dynamic behavior); (b) uniformity, reliability and reproducibility; (c) deterioration in storage; (d) production capability; (e) ecological impact; (f) quality assurance; (g) availability, and (h) cost. The Committee was divided into two Panels; one panel devoted to the study of tungsten alloys and the other devoted to the study of depleted uranium alloys for use in Kinetic energy penetrators. This report represents the findings and recommendation of the Panel on Uranium

  11. Energy use and overheating risk of Swedish multi-storey residential buildings under different climate scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dodoo, Ambrose; Gustavsson, Leif

    2016-01-01

    In this study, the extent to which different climate scenarios influence overheating risk, energy use and peak loads for space conditioning of district heated multi-storey buildings in Sweden are explored. Furthermore, the effectiveness of different overheating control measures and the implications of different electricity supply options for space cooling and ventilation are investigated. The analysis is based on buildings with different architectural and energy efficiency configurations including a prefab concrete-frame, a massive timber-frame and a light timber-frame building. Thermal performance of the buildings under low and high Representative Concentration Pathway climate scenarios for 2050–2059 and 2090–2099 are analysed and compared to that under historical climate of 1961–1990 and recent climate of 1996–2005. The study is based on a bottom-up methodology and includes detailed hour-by-hour energy balance and systems analyses. The results show significant changes in the buildings’ thermal performance under the future climate scenarios, relative to the historical and recent climates. Heating demand decreased significantly while cooling demand and overheating risk increased considerably with the future climate scenarios, for all buildings. In contrast to the cooling demand, the relative changes in heating demand of the buildings under the future climate scenarios are somewhat similar. The changes in the space conditioning demands and overheating risk vary for the buildings. Overheating risk was found to be slightly higher for the massive-frame building and slightly lower for the light-frame building. - Highlights: • We analysed thermal performance of buildings under different climate scenarios. • Our analysis is based on historical, recent and projected future climate datasets. • The buildings' thermal performance changed notably under future climate scenarios. • The extent of the changes is influenced by the buildings' energy efficiency

  12. Heterogeneous world model and collaborative scenarios of transition to globally sustainable nuclear energy systems - 15483

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuznetsov, V.; Fesenko, G.

    2015-01-01

    The International Atomic Energy Agency's International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO) is to help ensure that nuclear energy is available to contribute to meeting global energy needs of the 21. century in a sustainable manner. The INPRO task titled 'Global scenarios' is to develop global and regional nuclear energy scenarios that lead to a global vision of sustainable nuclear energy in the 21. century. Results of multiple studies show that the criteria for developing sustainable nuclear energy cannot be met without innovations in reactor and nuclear fuel cycle technologies. Combining different reactor types and associated fuel chains creates a multiplicity of nuclear energy system arrangements potentially contributing to global sustainability of nuclear energy. In this, cooperation among countries having different policy regarding fuel cycle back end would be essential to bring sustainability benefits from innovations in technology to all interested users. INPRO has developed heterogeneous global model to capture countries' different policies regarding the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle in regional and global scenarios of nuclear energy evolution and applied in a number of studies performed by participants of the project. This paper will highlight the model and major conclusions obtained in the studies. (authors)

  13. The penetration, diffusion and energy deposition of high-energy photon in layered media

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhengming, Luo; Chengjun, Gou; Laub, Wolfram

    2002-01-01

    This paper presents a new theory for calculating the transport of high-energy photons and their secondary charged particles. We call this new algorithm characteristic line method, which is completely analytic. Using this new method we can not only accurately calculate the transport behavior of energetic photons, but also precisely describes the transport behavior and energy deposition of secondary electrons, photoelectrons, Compton recoil electrons and positron-electron pairs. Its calculation efficiency is much higher than the Monte Carlo method's. The theory can be directly applied to layered media situation and obtain a pencil-beam-modeled solution. Therefore, it may be applied to clinical applications for radiation therapy

  14. Energy scenarios for hydrogen production in Mexico; Escenarios energeticos para la produccion de hidrogeno en Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ortega V, E.; Francois L, J. L. [UNAM, Facultad de Ingenieria, Departamento de Sistemas Energeticos, Ciudad Universitaria, 04510 Mexico D. F. (Mexico)], e-mail: iqoren@gmail.com

    2009-10-15

    The hydrogen is a clean and very efficient fuel, its combustion does not produce gases of greenhouse effect, ozone precursors and residual acids. Also the hydrogen produced by friendly energy sources with the environment like nuclear energy could help to solve the global problems that it confronts the energy at present time. Presently work fuel cycles of hydrogen production technologies in Mexico are judged, by means of a structured methodology in the concept of sustainable development in its social, economic and environmental dimensions. The methodology is divided in three scenarios: base, Outlook 2030 and capture of CO{sub 2}. The first scenario makes reference to cycles analysis in a current context for Mexico, the second taking in account the demand projections reported by the IAEA in its report Outlook and the third scenario, capture of CO{sub 2}, the technologies are analyzed supposing a reduction in capture costs of 75%. Each scenario also has four cases (base, social, environmental and economic) by means of which the cycles are analyzed in the dimensions of sustainable development. For scenarios base and capture, results show that combination nuclear energy- reformed of gas it is the best alternative for cases base and economic. For social case, the evaluated better technology is the hydraulics, and for environmental case, the best option is represented by the regenerative thermochemistry cycles. The scenario Outlook 2030 show a favorable tendency of growth of renewable sources, being the aeolian energy the best technology evaluated in the cases base and environmental, the hydraulics technology in the social case and in the economic case the reformed of natural gas that uses nuclear heat. (Author)

  15. Scenario and multiple criteria decision analysis for energy and environmental security of military and industrial installations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karvetski, Christopher W; Lambert, James H; Linkov, Igor

    2011-04-01

    Military and industrial facilities need secure and reliable power generation. Grid outages can result in cascading infrastructure failures as well as security breaches and should be avoided. Adding redundancy and increasing reliability can require additional environmental, financial, logistical, and other considerations and resources. Uncertain scenarios consisting of emergent environmental conditions, regulatory changes, growth of regional energy demands, and other concerns result in further complications. Decisions on selecting energy alternatives are made on an ad hoc basis. The present work integrates scenario analysis and multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to identify combinations of impactful emergent conditions and to perform a preliminary benefits analysis of energy and environmental security investments for industrial and military installations. Application of a traditional MCDA approach would require significant stakeholder elicitations under multiple uncertain scenarios. The approach proposed in this study develops and iteratively adjusts a scoring function for investment alternatives to find the scenarios with the most significant impacts on installation security. A robust prioritization of investment alternatives can be achieved by integrating stakeholder preferences and focusing modeling and decision-analytical tools on a few key emergent conditions and scenarios. The approach is described and demonstrated for a campus of several dozen interconnected industrial buildings within a major installation. Copyright © 2010 SETAC.

  16. Scenarios of Future Socio-Economics, Energy, Land Use, and Radiative Forcing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eom, Jiyong; Moss, Richard H.; Edmonds, James A.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Dooley, James J.; Kim, Son H.; Kopp, Roberrt; Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick W.; Patel, Pralit L.; Thomson, Allison M.; Wise, Marshall A.; Zhou, Yuyu

    2013-04-13

    This chapter explores uncertainty in future scenarios of energy, land use, emissions and radiative forcing that span the range in the literature for radiative forcing, but also consider uncertainty in two other dimensions, challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. We develop a set of six scenarios that we explore in detail including the underlying the context in which they are set, assumptions that drive the scenarios, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), used to produce quantified implications for those assumptions, and results for the global energy and land-use systems as well as emissions, concentrations and radiative forcing. We also describe the history of scenario development and the present state of development of this branch of climate change research. We discuss the implications of alternative social, economic, demographic, and technology development possibilities, as well as potential stabilization regimes for the supply of and demand for energy, the choice of energy technologies, and prices of energy and agricultural commodities. Land use and land cover will also be discussed with the emphasis on the interaction between the demand for bioenergy and crops, crop yields, crop prices, and policy settings to limit greenhouse gas emissions.

  17. Defining climate change scenario characteristics with a phase space of cumulative primary energy and carbon intensity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ritchie, Justin; Dowlatabadi, Hadi

    2018-02-01

    Climate change modeling relies on projections of future greenhouse gas emissions and other phenomena leading to changes in planetary radiative forcing. Scenarios of socio-technical development consistent with end-of-century forcing levels are commonly produced by integrated assessment models. However, outlooks for forcing from fossil energy combustion can also be presented and defined in terms of two essential components: total energy use this century and the carbon intensity of that energy. This formulation allows a phase space diagram to succinctly describe a broad range of possible outcomes for carbon emissions from the future energy system. In the following paper, we demonstrate this phase space method with the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) as used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The resulting RCP phase space is applied to map IPCC Working Group III (WGIII) reference case ‘no policy’ scenarios. Once these scenarios are described as coordinates in the phase space, data mining techniques can readily distill their core features. Accordingly, we conduct a k-means cluster analysis to distinguish the shared outlooks of these scenarios for oil, gas and coal resource use. As a whole, the AR5 database depicts a transition toward re-carbonization, where a world without climate policy inevitably leads to an energy supply with increasing carbon intensity. This orientation runs counter to the experienced ‘dynamics as usual’ of gradual decarbonization, suggesting climate change targets outlined in the Paris Accord are more readily achievable than projected to date.

  18. External costs from electricity generation of China up to 2030 in energy and abatement scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Qingyu; Weili, Tian; Yumei, Wei; Yingxu, Chen

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents estimated external costs of electricity generation in China under different scenarios of long-term energy and environmental policies. Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) software is used to develop a simple model of electricity demand and to estimate gross electricity generation in China up to 2030 under these scenarios. Because external costs for unit of electricity from fossil fuel will vary in different government regulation periods, airborne pollutant external costs of SO 2 , NO x , PM 10 , and CO 2 from fired power plants are then estimated based on emission inventories and environmental cost for unit of pollutants, while external costs of non-fossil power generation are evaluated with external cost for unit of electricity. The developed model is run to study the impact of different energy efficiency and environmental abatement policy initiatives that would reduce total energy requirement and also reduce external costs of electricity generation. It is shown that external costs of electricity generation may reduce 24-55% with three energy policies scenarios and may further reduce by 20.9-26.7% with two environmental policies scenarios. The total reduction of external costs may reach 58.2%. (author)

  19. Carbon tax scenarios and their effects on the Irish energy sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Di Cosmo, Valeria; Hyland, Marie

    2013-01-01

    In this paper we use annual time series data from 1960 to 2008 to estimate the long run price and income elasticities underlying energy demand in Ireland. The Irish economy is divided into five sectors: residential, industrial, commercial, agricultural and transport, and separate energy demand equations are estimated for all sectors. Energy demand is broken down by fuel type, and price and income elasticities are estimated for the primary fuels in the Irish fuel mix. Using the estimated price and income elasticities we forecast Irish sectoral energy demand out to 2025. The share of electricity in the Irish fuel mix is predicted to grow over time, as the share of carbon intensive fuels such as coal, oil and peat, falls. The share of electricity in total energy demand grows most in the industrial and commercial sectors, while oil remains an important fuel in the residential and transport sectors. Having estimated the baseline forecasts, two different carbon tax scenarios are imposed and the impact of these scenarios on energy demand, carbon dioxide emissions, and government revenue is assessed. If it is assumed that the level of the carbon tax will track the futures price of carbon under the EU-ETS, the carbon tax will rise from €21.50 per tonne CO 2 in 2012 (the first year forecasted) to €41 in 2025. Results show that under this scenario total emissions would be reduced by approximately 861,000 tonnes of CO 2 in 2025 relative to a zero carbon tax scenario, and that such a tax would generate €1.1 billion in revenue in the same year. We also examine a high tax scenario under which emissions reductions and revenue generated will be greater. Finally, in order to assess the macroeconomic effects of a carbon tax, the carbon tax scenarios were run in HERMES, the ESRI's medium-term macroeconomic model. The results from HERMES show that, a carbon tax of €41 per tonne CO 2 would lead to a 0.21% contraction in GDP, and a 0.08% reduction in employment. A higher carbon

  20. Key factors affecting the deployment of electricity generation technologies in energy technology scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruoss, F.; Turton, H.; Hirschberg, S.

    2009-12-01

    This report presents the findings of a survey of key factors affecting the deployment of electricity generation technologies in selected energy scenarios. The assumptions and results of scenarios, and the different models used in their construction, are compared. Particular attention is given to technology assumptions, such as investment cost or capacity factors, and their impact on technology deployment. We conclude that the deployment of available technologies, i.e. their market shares, can only be explained from a holistic perspective, and that there are strong interactions between driving forces and competing technology options within a certain scenario. Already the design of a scenario analysis has important impacts on the deployment of technologies: the choice of the set of available technologies, the modeling approach and the definition of the storylines determine the outcome. Furthermore, the quantification of these storylines into input parameters and cost assumptions drives technology deployment, even though differences across the scenarios in cost assumptions are not observed to account for many of the observed differences in electricity technology deployment. The deployment can only be understood after a consideration of the interplay of technology options and the scale of technology deployment, which is determined by economic growth, end-use efficiency, and electrification. Some input parameters are of particular importance for certain technologies: CO 2 prices, fuel prices and the availability of carbon capture and storage appear to be crucial for the deployment of fossil-fueled power plants; maximum construction rates and safety concerns determine the market share of nuclear power; the availability of suitable sites represents the most important factor for electricity generation from hydro and wind power plants; and technology breakthroughs are needed for solar photovoltaics to become cost-competitive. Finally, this analysis concludes with a review

  1. Key factors affecting the deployment of electricity generation technologies in energy technology scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruoss, F.; Turton, H.; Hirschberg, S.

    2009-12-15

    This report presents the findings of a survey of key factors affecting the deployment of electricity generation technologies in selected energy scenarios. The assumptions and results of scenarios, and the different models used in their construction, are compared. Particular attention is given to technology assumptions, such as investment cost or capacity factors, and their impact on technology deployment. We conclude that the deployment of available technologies, i.e. their market shares, can only be explained from a holistic perspective, and that there are strong interactions between driving forces and competing technology options within a certain scenario. Already the design of a scenario analysis has important impacts on the deployment of technologies: the choice of the set of available technologies, the modeling approach and the definition of the storylines determine the outcome. Furthermore, the quantification of these storylines into input parameters and cost assumptions drives technology deployment, even though differences across the scenarios in cost assumptions are not observed to account for many of the observed differences in electricity technology deployment. The deployment can only be understood after a consideration of the interplay of technology options and the scale of technology deployment, which is determined by economic growth, end-use efficiency, and electrification. Some input parameters are of particular importance for certain technologies: CO{sub 2} prices, fuel prices and the availability of carbon capture and storage appear to be crucial for the deployment of fossil-fueled power plants; maximum construction rates and safety concerns determine the market share of nuclear power; the availability of suitable sites represents the most important factor for electricity generation from hydro and wind power plants; and technology breakthroughs are needed for solar photovoltaics to become cost-competitive. Finally, this analysis concludes with a

  2. Dynamic Control of Facts Devices to Enable Large Scale Penetration of Renewable Energy Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chavan, Govind Sahadeo

    This thesis focuses on some of the problems caused by large scale penetration of Renewable Energy Resources within EHV transmission networks, and investigates some approaches in resolving these problems. In chapter 4, a reduced-order model of the 500 kV WECC transmission system is developed by estimating its key parameters from phasor measurement unit (PMU) data. The model was then implemented in RTDS and was investigated for its accuracy with respect to the PMU data. Finally it was tested for observing the effects of various contingencies like transmission line loss, generation loss and large scale penetration of wind farms on EHV transmission systems. Chapter 5 introduces Static Series Synchronous Compensators (SSSC) which are seriesconnected converters that can control real power flow along a transmission line. A new application of SSSCs in mitigating Ferranti effect on unloaded transmission lines was demonstrated on PSCAD. A new control scheme for SSSCs based on the Cascaded H-bridge (CHB) converter configuration was proposed and was demonstrated using PSCAD and RTDS. A new centralized controller was developed for the distributed SSSCs based on some of the concepts used in the CHB-based SSSC. The controller's efficacy was demonstrated using RTDS. Finally chapter 6 introduces the problem of power oscillations induced by renewable sources in a transmission network. A power oscillation damping (POD) controller is designed using distributed SSSCs in NYPA's 345 kV three-bus AC system and its efficacy is demonstrated in PSCAD. A similar POD controller is then designed for the CHB-based SSSC in the IEEE 14 bus system in PSCAD. Both controllers were noted to have significantly damped power oscillations in the transmission networks.

  3. The blessings of energy efficiency in an enhanced EU sustainability scenario. Volume 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lechtenboehmer, Stefan

    2007-01-01

    Although the anticipated 'end of cheap oil' has boosted the interest in energy efficiency as a cornerstone of energy and climate strategies, it is usually taken into account on the basis of rather narrowly defined cost-benefit considerations. As a consequence, substantial ancillary benefits are usually barely considered.In a recent study for the European Parliament (EP), the authors assessed two enhanced climate strategies compared to a more conventional strategy. One enhanced climate policy scenario relies, in particular, on raising the annual pace of energy efficiency improvement. The other aims at a radical boost of the market share of renewable energy forms, which, however, presupposes an equally radical improvement of energy efficiency.The present article presents the scenario results and places them in the context of risk characterisation of the considered climate policy scenarios. Risks of international turmoil and energy price hikes could be reduced if dependency rates for fossil fuel imports went down. A more ambitious climate policy can also strengthen the EU position in post-Kyoto global climate agreements and a moderated need for emission trading can, for example, reduce conflicting pressures on clean technology transfer. On the other hand, the implementation of the efficiency strategy will entail increased domestic risks because it will involve a re-prioritisation of resource allocation and will thus affect the current distribution of wealth in both the energy sector and some other closely related sectors.The article outlines the main drivers behind the ambitious energy efficiency scenario and it attaches tentative price tags to the ancillary effects, with special emphasis on the above sketched swapping of risks. It will, therefore, strongly argue for a more holistic view, which underscores the need for political action and the benefits of such proactive policies in favour of energy efficiency

  4. How Can China Lighten Up? Urbanization, Industrialization and Energy Demand Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aden, Nathaniel T.; Zheng, Nina; Fridley, David G.

    2009-07-01

    Urbanization has re-shaped China's economy, society, and energy system. Between 1990 and 2007 China added 290 million new urban residents, bringing the total urbanization rate to 45%. This population adjustment spurred energy demand for construction of new buildings and infrastructure, as well as additional residential use as rural biomass was replaced with urban commercial energy services. Primary energy demand grew at an average annual rate of 10% between 2000 and 2007. Urbanization's effect on energy demand was compounded by the boom in domestic infrastructure investment, and in the export trade following World Trade Organization (WTO) accession in 2001. Industry energy consumption was most directly affected by this acceleration. Whereas industry comprised 32% of 2007 U.S. energy use, it accounted for 75% of China's 2007 energy consumption. Five sub-sectors accounted for 78% of China's industry energy use in 2007: iron and steel, energy extraction and processing, chemicals, cement, and non-ferrous metals. Ferrous metals alone accounted for 25% of industry and 18% of total primary energy use. The rapid growth of heavy industry has led China to become by far the world's largest producer of steel, cement, aluminum, and other energy-intensive commodities. However, the energy efficiency of heavy industrial production continues to lag world best practice levels. This study uses scenario analysis to quantify the impact of urbanization and trade on industrial and residential energy consumption from 2000 to 2025. The BAU scenario assumed 67% urbanization, frozen export amounts of heavy industrial products, and achievement of world best practices by 2025. The China Lightens Up (CLU) scenario assumed 55% urbanization, zero net exports of heavy industrial products, and more aggressive efficiency improvements by 2025. The five dominant industry sub-sectors were modeled in both scenarios using a LEAP energy end-use accounting model. The results of

  5. Evaluating Uncertainty in GHG Emission Scenarios: Mapping IAM Outlooks With an Energy System Phase Space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ritchie, W. J.; Dowlatabadi, H.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change modeling relies on projections of future greenhouse gas emissions and other phenomena leading to changes in planetary radiative forcing (RF). Pathways for long-run fossil energy use that map to total forcing outcomes are commonly depicted with integrated assessment models (IAMs). IAMs structure outlooks for 21st-century emissions with various theories for developments in demographics, economics, land-use, energy markets and energy service demands. These concepts are applied to understand global changes in two key factors relevant for scenarios of carbon emissions: total energy use (E) this century and the carbon intensity of that energy (F/E). A simple analytical and graphical approach can also illustrate the full range of outcomes for these variables to determine if IAMs provide sufficient coverage of the uncertainty space for future energy use. In this talk, we present a method for understanding uncertainties relevant to RF scenario components in a phase space. The phase space of a dynamic system represents significant factors as axes to capture the full range of physically possible states. A two-dimensional phase space of E and F/E presents the possible system states that can lead to various levels of total 21st-century carbon emissions. Once defined in this way, a phase space of these energy system coordinates allows for rapid characterization of large IAM scenario sets with machine learning techniques. This phase space method is applied to the levels of RF described by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The resulting RCP phase space identifies characteristics of the baseline energy system outlooks provided by IAMs for IPCC Working Group III. We conduct a k-means cluster analysis to distinguish the major features of IAM scenarios for each RCP range. Cluster analysis finds the IAM scenarios in AR5 illustrate RCPs with consistent combinations of energy resources. This suggests IAM scenarios understate uncertainty ranges for future

  6. Future waste treatment and energy production – an example of development of joint scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Münster, Marie; Finnveden, G.; Wenzel, H.

    2012-01-01

    Development and use of scenarios for large interdisciplinary projects is a complicated task. The article gives practical examples of how this has been done in two projects addressing waste management and energy issues respectively. Based on experiences from the two projects, recommendations are m...

  7. Energy systems and climate policy - Long-term scenarios for an uncertain future

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vuuren, D.P. van

    2007-01-01

    In this thesis various forms of scenario analysis are discussed both to explore 1) how energy system and associated greenhouse gas emissions may develop in the absence of climate policy and 2) how strategies aimed at drastically reducing greenhouse gas emissions may turn out. As uncertainties

  8. Energy in Western Europe until 2020: Proper interpretation of the scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alba, P.; Hartmann, J.

    1993-01-01

    The authors explain the political, methodological and economic underpinnings of the Report for Western Europe written for the World Energy Council's Energy for the World of Tomorrow in the perspective of the year 2020. The constraints and considerations analyzed constitute a natural and unavoidable framework for all possible changes in energy uses, and for evaluating the various possible strategies. Then addressing the strategic variables, the authors show that, when these variables are compared with the general framework, certain scenarios become incompatible with the expressed goals, and others exhibit their own internal inconsistencies. But this also reveals a certain degree of freedom. This leads to an energy scenario that satisfies environmental desiderata as well as supply reliability, without relying too heavily on a given technological solution. 3 tabs

  9. ADEME energy transition scenarios. Summary including a macro-economic evaluation 2030 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2014-05-01

    ADEME, the French Environment and Energy Management Agency, is a public agency reporting to the Ministry of Ecology, Sustainable Development and Energy and the Ministry of Higher Education and Research. In 2012 the agency drew up a long-term scenario entitled 'ADEME Energy Transition Scenarios 2030-2050'. This document presents a summary of the report. The full version can be viewed online on the ADEME web site. With this work ADEME offers a proactive energy vision for all stakeholders - experts, the general public, decision-makers, etc. - focusing on two main areas of expertise: managing energy conservation and developing renewable energy production using proven or demonstration-phase technologies. These scenarios identify a possible pathway for the energy transition in France. They are based on two time horizons and two separate methodologies. One projection, applicable from the present day, seeks to maximise potential energy savings and renewable energy production in an ambitious but realistic manner, up to 2030. The second exercise is a normative scenario that targets a fourfold reduction in greenhouse gas emissions generated in France by 2050, compared to 1990 levels. The analysis presented in this document is primarily based on an exploration of different scenarios that allow for the achievement of ambitious energy and environmental targets under technically, economically and socially feasible conditions. This analysis is supplemented by a macro-economic analysis. These projections, particularly for 2030, do not rely on radical changes in lifestyle, lower comfort levels or hypothetical major technological breakthroughs. They show that by using technologies and organisational changes that are currently within our reach, we have the means to achieve these long-term goals. The scenarios are based on assumptions of significant growth, both economic (1.8% per year) and demographic (0.4% a year). The 2050 scenario shows that with sustained growth, a

  10. Optimal Operation and Management for Smart Grid Subsumed High Penetration of Renewable Energy, Electric Vehicle, and Battery Energy Storage System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shigenobu, Ryuto; Noorzad, Ahmad Samim; Muarapaz, Cirio; Yona, Atsushi; Senjyu, Tomonobu

    2016-04-01

    Distributed generators (DG) and renewable energy sources have been attracting special attention in distribution systems in all over the world. Renewable energies, such as photovoltaic (PV) and wind turbine generators are considered as green energy. However, a large amount of DG penetration causes voltage deviation beyond the statutory range and reverse power flow at interconnection points in the distribution system. If excessive voltage deviation occurs, consumer's electric devices might break and reverse power flow will also has a negative impact on the transmission system. Thus, mass interconnections of DGs has an adverse effect on both of the utility and the customer. Therefore, reactive power control method is proposed previous research by using inverters attached DGs for prevent voltage deviations. Moreover, battery energy storage system (BESS) is also proposed for resolve reverse power flow. In addition, it is possible to supply high quality power for managing DGs and BESSs. Therefore, this paper proposes a method to maintain voltage, active power, and reactive power flow at interconnection points by using cooperative controlled of PVs, house BESSs, EVs, large BESSs, and existing voltage control devices. This paper not only protect distribution system, but also attain distribution loss reduction and effectivity management of control devices. Therefore mentioned control objectives are formulated as an optimization problem that is solved by using the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm. Modified scheduling method is proposed in order to improve convergence probability of scheduling scheme. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by case studies results and by using numerical simulations in MATLAB®.

  11. A long-term, integrated impact assessment of alternative building energy code scenarios in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, Sha; Eom, Jiyong; Evans, Meredydd; Clarke, Leon

    2014-01-01

    China is the second largest building energy user in the world, ranking first and third in residential and commercial energy consumption. Beginning in the early 1980s, the Chinese government has developed a variety of building energy codes to improve building energy efficiency and reduce total energy demand. This paper studies the impact of building energy codes on energy use and CO 2 emissions by using a detailed building energy model that represents four distinct climate zones each with three building types, nested in a long-term integrated assessment framework GCAM. An advanced building stock module, coupled with the building energy model, is developed to reflect the characteristics of future building stock and its interaction with the development of building energy codes in China. This paper also evaluates the impacts of building codes on building energy demand in the presence of economy-wide carbon policy. We find that building energy codes would reduce Chinese building energy use by 13–22% depending on building code scenarios, with a similar effect preserved even under the carbon policy. The impact of building energy codes shows regional and sectoral variation due to regionally differentiated responses of heating and cooling services to shell efficiency improvement. - Highlights: • We assessed long-term impacts of building codes and climate policy using GCAM. • Building energy codes would reduce Chinese building energy use by 13–22%. • The impacts of codes on building energy use vary by climate region and sub-sector

  12. Evaluating options for sustainable energy mixes in South Korea using scenario analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong, Sanghyun; Bradshaw, Corey J.A.; Brook, Barry W.

    2013-01-01

    To mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, coal-fired electricity infrastructure needs to be replaced by low-carbon electricity generation options. Here we examine a range of possible alternative scenarios for sustainable electricity generation in South Korea, considering both physical and economic limits of current technologies. The results show that South Korea cannot achieve a 100% renewable energy mix and requires at least 55 GW of backup capacity. Given that constraint, we modelled seven scenarios: (i) the present condition, (ii) the First National Electricity Plan configuration, (iii) renewable energy (including 5 GW photovoltaic) with fuel cells or (iv) natural gas backup, (v) maximum renewable energy (including 75 GW photovoltaic) with natural gas, (vi) maximum nuclear power, and (vii) nuclear power with natural gas. We then quantify levelised cost of electricity, energy security, greenhouse gas emissions, fresh water consumption, heated water discharge, land transformation, air pollutant emissions, radioactive waste disposal, solid waste disposal and safety issues for each modelled mix. Our analysis shows that the maximum nuclear power scenario yields the fewest overall negative impacts, and the maximum renewable energy scenario with fuel cells would have the highest negative impacts. - Highlights: ► Due to physical limits of renewable sources, renewable energy cannot provide total electricity consumption in South Korea. ► A massive expansion of solar power will act to save only a small amount of backup fuel at greatly increased costs. ► A huge supply of natural gas capacity is essential, due to the absence of feasible large-scale energy storage. ► A pathway to maximize renewable energy causes more environmental and economic disadvantages than the status quo. ► Maximizing nuclear power is the most sustainable option for South Korea

  13. Long-term scenarios and strategies for the deployment of renewable energies in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pregger, Thomas; Nitsch, Joachim; Naegler, Tobias

    2013-01-01

    The transformation of the energy supply in Germany (the “Energiewende”) as described in the German Federal government’s ‘Energy Concept’ (Energiekonzept, 2010) is based on a political consensus about long-term targets for energy efficiency and renewable energies. The aim of this article is to present a consistent scenario for this transformation process reflecting the long-term implementation of renewable energies and the possible future structure of the German energy system as a whole. Structural and economic effects of this development are derived and discussed. It summarizes results of scenario analyses done by the department of Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment of the German Aerospace Center as part of a three-year research project for the German Federal Ministry for the Environment. The underlying study provides a detailed data base reflecting a long-term roadmap for the energy system transformation in Germany. The scenarios show that the policy targets are consistent and can be achieved, if appropriate policy measures are to be implemented. The economic analysis shows the amount of investments and the strong market dynamics required for new generation technologies but also the huge economic benefits that can result from this development path in terms of fuel cost savings and lower fuel imports. - Highlights: • Long-term scenario for the German energy system according to the political targets. • Comparison of three variants with differing developments of the fleets of vehicles. • Analysis of economic effects: investments, generation and differential costs. • Importance of strategies in the sectors electricity, heat, and transportation. • Recommended measures for the successful implementation of the CO 2 reductions

  14. Global Energy-Economy-Environment (E3) Scenarios to 2050 and Beyond

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schrattenholzer, L.

    2005-01-01

    The Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies (ECS) Program at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) develops policy-relevant global and world-regional energy perspectives. The basic premise of the ECS's research program is a global trend of d ecarbonization . Firstly, decarbonization includes a trend toward ever-greater efficiency, or ever less waste, in society's use of energy resources. Secondly, it includes a trend towards less carbon-intensive fossil fuels (e.g., from coal toward natural gas) and, further, to non-fossil fuels, especially renewable energy carriers. Technological change is generally regarded as one of the key drivers of sustained economic growth. Long-term energy scenarios developed at IIASA and elsewhere show that, depending on key assumptions on drivers such as population, economic growth and technological development, global energy development can be environmentally unsustainable. First, energy development might not lead to stabilizing greenhouse concentrations and might thus have significant negative impacts on the global climate. In addition, some, especially coal-intensive, scenarios might lead to levels of acid deposition at which significant damage to sensitive ecosystems is expected to occur in Europe and, even more so, in Asia. A continuation of the observed historical long-term trends of decarbonization, dematerialization, and energy efficiency improvements might therefore not be sufficient to achieve sustainable growth. Targeted technological development aiming at accelerating decarbonization, dematerialization, and/or efficiency improvement may be one of the most effective means for reconciling economic growth with global environmental objectives. This might require a step-up in investments in R and D and in the demonstration of technologies so as to stimulate both learning-by-searching and learning-by-doing. In this presentation, global E3 scenarios will be summarized in the following three groups: Non

  15. LTE UE Energy Saving by Applying Carrier Aggregation in a HetNet Scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauridsen, Mads; Wang, Hua; Mogensen, Preben

    2013-01-01

    In this work it is examined if downlink Carrier Aggregation (CA) can be used to save UE energy. A dual-receiver LTE release 10 UE is compared with a single-receiver LTE release 8 UE. The models are based on scaling of an existing LTE release 8 UE power model. The energy consumption of the UEs...... is examined in a Heterogeneous Network scenario consisting of macro and small cells. The unexpected conclusion is that CA UEs can save energy, compared to LTE release 8 UEs, if they, depending on cell load, experience a throughput gain of 20%. However if the UE throughput is unaltered the energy consumption...

  16. Evaluating the use of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage in low emission scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaughan, Naomi E.; Gough, Clair; Mander, Sarah; Littleton, Emma W.; Welfle, Andrew; Gernaat, David E. H. J.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    2018-04-01

    Biomass Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is heavily relied upon in scenarios of future emissions that are consistent with limiting global mean temperature increase to 1.5 °C or 2 °C above pre-industrial. These temperature limits are defined in the Paris Agreement in order to reduce the risks and impacts of climate change. Here, we explore the use of BECCS technologies in a reference scenario and three low emission scenarios generated by an integrated assessment model (IMAGE). Using these scenarios we investigate the feasibility of key implicit and explicit assumptions about these BECCS technologies, including biomass resource, land use, CO2 storage capacity and carbon capture and storage (CCS) deployment rate. In these scenarios, we find that half of all global CO2 storage required by 2100 occurs in USA, Western Europe, China and India, which is compatible with current estimates of regional CO2 storage capacity. CCS deployment rates in the scenarios are very challenging compared to historical rates of fossil, renewable or nuclear technologies and are entirely dependent on stringent policy action to incentivise CCS. In the scenarios, half of the biomass resource is derived from agricultural and forestry residues and half from dedicated bioenergy crops grown on abandoned agricultural land and expansion into grasslands (i.e. land for forests and food production is protected). Poor governance of the sustainability of bioenergy crop production can significantly limit the amount of CO2 removed by BECCS, through soil carbon loss from direct and indirect land use change. Only one-third of the bioenergy crops are grown in regions associated with more developed governance frameworks. Overall, the scenarios in IMAGE are ambitious but consistent with current relevant literature with respect to assumed biomass resource, land use and CO2 storage capacity.

  17. Innovative method of RES integration into the regional energy development scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klevas, Valentinas; Biekša, Kestutis; Murauskaitė, Lina

    2014-01-01

    Scarcity or abundance of energy resources usually depends on physical and geographical conditions in the region. However, the energy flow in the region also depends on the efficient use of energy resources, the consumption rate of energy and the possibility to use local renewable and non-renewable energy resources. Production, distribution and the use of energy resources in the region are the challenges for central and local government, business and social service, customers and other stakeholders. Development of regional energy economy should be optimized according to the available energy flow in the region using a network system analysis method, which provides solutions for developing sustainable energy economy models. The network system analysis method enables to optimize the use of local and renewable resources at the regional level and reveals available local energy resources. An efficient use of available regional resources and the use of renewable energy sources (RES) should be the main goals for the development of regional energy system. RES can compete with traditional fossil fuel with the condition that all hidden aspects are revealed. The network system analysis method enables to indicate energy flows in the region as well as indicate pros and cons of using renewable energy technologies. - Highlights: • RES integration into the regional energy development scenarios is done. • Innovative process network system (PNS) analysis method is used. • PNS method is used to optimize the use of local and renewable resources. • Analysis of energy flow in region using PNS method is done

  18. An analysis of long-term scenarios for the transition to renewable energy in the Korean electricity sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Nyun-Bae; Yun, Sun-Jin; Jeon, Eui-Chan

    2013-01-01

    This paper analyzes the energy, environmental and economic influences of three electricity scenarios in Korea by 2050 using the “Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system” (LEAP) model. The reference year was 2008. Scenarios include the baseline (BL), new governmental policy (GP) and sustainable society (SS) scenarios. The growth rate of electricity demand in the GP scenario was higher than that of the BL scenario while the growth rate in the SS scenario was lower than that of the BL scenario. Greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation in 2050 in the BL and GP scenarios were similar with current emissions. However, emissions in 2050 in the SS scenario were about 80% lower than emissions in 2008, because of the expansion of renewable electricity in spite of the phase-out of nuclear energy. While nuclear and coal-fired power plants accounted for most of the electricity generated in the BL and GP scenarios in 2050, the SS scenario projected that renewable energy would generate the most electricity in 2050. It was found that the discounted cumulative costs from 2009 to 2050 in the SS scenario would be 20 and 10% higher than that of the BL and GP scenarios, respectively. - Highlights: ► This paper analyzed three kinds of electricity scenarios in Korea by 2050 using LEAP model. Baseline and governmental policy scenarios focus on the electricity supply through nuclear expansion. ► Sustainable Society scenario focuses on demand management and renewable electricity. ► The latter improves energy security and reduces more GHG with the affordable cost.

  19. The energy policy turnaround and the respective models. The prognostic ability of energy scenarios; Die Energiewende und ihre Modelle. Was uns Energieszenarien sagen koennen - und was nicht

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dieckhoff, Christian; Leuschner, Anna (eds.)

    2016-07-01

    The booklet on energy scenarios in the frame of the energy policy turnaround includes the following contributions: How many scenarios do we need? The justification of relevant possibilities using idealized models; the underestimation of the climatic change; the burden of the possible achievable; wrong conclusions in the argumentation with scenarios; epistemic meta-analysis.

  20. Heterogeneous world model and collaborative scenarios of transition to globally sustainable nuclear energy systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuznetsov Vladimir

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The International Atomic Energy Agency's International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO is to help ensure that nuclear energy is available to contribute to meeting global energy needs of the 21st century in a sustainable manner. The INPRO task titled “Global scenarios” is to develop global and regional nuclear energy scenarios that lead to a global vision of sustainable nuclear energy in the 21st century. Results of multiple studies show that the criteria for developing sustainable nuclear energy cannot be met without innovations in reactor and nuclear fuel cycle technologies. Combining different reactor types and associated fuel chains creates a multiplicity of nuclear energy system arrangements potentially contributing to global sustainability of nuclear energy. In this, cooperation among countries having different policy regarding fuel cycle back end would be essential to bring sustainability benefits from innovations in technology to all interested users. INPRO has developed heterogeneous global model to capture countries’ different policies regarding the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle in regional and global scenarios of nuclear energy evolution and applied in a number of studies performed by participants of the project. This paper will highlight the model and major conclusions obtained in the studies.

  1. System behaviour of compressed-air energy-storage in Denmark with a high penetration of renewable energy sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salgi, Georges; Lund, Henrik

    2008-01-01

    In 2005, wind power supplied 19% of the 36 TWh annual electricity demand in Denmark, while 50% was produced at combined heat-and-power plants (CHP). The installed wind-turbine capacity in Western Denmark exceeds the local demand at certain points in time. So far, excess production has been exported to neighbouring countries. However, plans to expand wind power both in Denmark and in its neighbouring countries could restrain the export option and create transmission congestion challenges. This results in a need to increase the flexibility of the local electricity-system. Compressed-Air Energy-Storage (CAES) has been proposed as a potential solution for levelling fluctuating wind-power production and maintaining a system balance. This paper analyses the energy-balance effects of adding CAES to the Western Danish energy-system. Results show that even with an unlimited CAES plant capacity, excess power production is not eliminated because of the high percentage of CHP production. The optimal wind-power penetration for maximum CAES operation is found to be around 55%. The minimum storage size for CAES to fully eliminate condensing power plants operation in the optimized system is over 500 GWh, which corresponds to a cavern volume of around 234 Mm 3 at an average pressure of 60 bar. Such a storage size would be technically and economically unfeasible. The analysis, however, did not include the potential role of a CAES plant in regulating the power services. (author)

  2. REAL OPTIONS ANALYSIS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT SCENARIOS IN THE PHILIPPINES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Casper Agaton

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract - With the continuously rising energy demand and much dependence on imported fossil fuels, the Philippines is developing more sustainable sources of energy. Renewable energy seems to be a better alternative solution to meet the country’s energy supply and security concerns. Despite its huge potential, investment in renewable energy sources is challenged with competitive prices of fossil fuels, high start-up cost and lower feed-in tariff rates for renewables. To address these problems, this study aims to analyze energy investment scenarios in the Philippines using real options approach. This compares the attractiveness of investing in renewable energy over continuing to use coal for electricity generation under uncertainties in coal prices, investments cost, electricity prices, growth of investment in renewables, and imposing carbon tax for using fossil fuels.

  3. Energy conservation: policy issues and end-use scenarios of savings potential

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1978-09-01

    The enclosed work is based on previous research during this fiscal year, contained in Construction of Energy Conservation Scenarios: Interim Report of Work in Progress, June 1978. Five subjects were investigated and summaries were published for each subject in separate publications. This publication summarizes policy issues on the five subjects: tradeoffs of municipal solid-waste-processing alternatives (economics of garbage collection; mechanical versus home separation of recyclables); policy barriers and investment decisions in industry (methodology for identification of potential barriers to industrial energy conservation; process of industrial investment decision making); energy-efficient recreational travel (information system to promote energy-efficient recreational travel; recreational travel; national importance and individual decision making); energy-efficient buildings (causes of litigation against energy-conservation building codes; description of the building process); and end-use energy-conservation data base and scenaerios (residential; commercial; transportation; and industrial).

  4. A lifestyle-based scenario for US buildings: implications for energy use

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diamond, Rick

    2003-01-01

    Can lifestyle-based scenarios provide insight into the nature of energy use in our future buildings? Participants in a design charrette brainstormed ideas about the future of US homes and workplaces. The teams started from several descriptions of daily lifestyles, and developed specific building characteristics as the place settings for these narratives. In addition to characterizing the physical environment, the teams also identified the forces that would be influential in making these changes. Further reflection was made on the possible unintended consequences of these changes. The energy implications of these changes were characterized with respect to magnitude and direction. While acknowledging the speculative nature of the exercise, the rationale was to broaden the discussion on future energy use by looking at future scenarios in the context of everyday life

  5. A 100% Renewable Energy Scenario for the Java-Bali Grid

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthias Guenther

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Currently, many countries try to satisfy their energy needs with an increasing usage of renewable resources. The general motivations, with varying weighting in the different countries, are ecological reasons, concerns about energy security, and economical considerations. A for now rather theoretical question, although interesting for opening a long-term perspective, is how an energy supply from exclusively renewable energy resources could look like. This question has to be answered individually for any specific energy supply system. The present paper has the objective to present and evaluate a scenario for an electricity supply only from renewable energy resources for the Java-Bali grid. After designing a load time series for the year 2050 for the Java-Bali grid, a scenario is developed how to cover the load with electricity from renewable energy resources alone. Assumptions about the usable energy sources are made as well as assumptions about the available power plant capacity or energy potential. A specific challenge is the fact that solar energy must be the main source in such a renewable-energy based system, which comes with the need for a large storage capacity to match the power supply at any time with the load. Several possibilities are presented how to bring down the storage capacity: the increment of the installed PV capacity, the usage of bioenergy for seasonal balancing, and the complementation of the proposed short-term storage with an additional long-term storage. The study shows some of the specific challenges that a gradual transformation of the current electricity supply system on Java and Bali into a renewable-energy-based one would face and gives some hints about how to cope with these challenges. Scenarios like the one designed in this study are an important tool for decision-makers who face the task to scrutinize the consequences of choosing between different development paths.   Article History: Received: August 15th 2017

  6. N-losses and energy use in a scenario for conversion to organic farming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dalgaard, Tommy; Kjeldsen, Chris; Hutchings, Nick

    2002-01-01

    is not straightforward, and different scenarios for conversion to organic farming might lead to reduced or increased N-losses and E-use. This paper presents a scenario tool that uses a Geographical Information System in association with models for crop rotations, fertilisation practices, N-losses, and E...... reduction at the 95% level. We therefore recommend further research in how conversion to organic farming or other changes in the agricultural practice might help to reduce N-surpluses and E-uses. In that context, the presented scenario tool would be useful......The aims of organic farming include the recycling of nutrients and organic matter and the minimisation of the environmental impact of agriculture. Reduced nitrogen (N)-losses and energy (E)-use are therefore fundamental objectives of conversion to organic farming. However, the case...

  7. Sodium lauryl sulfate enhances nickel penetration through guinea-pig skin. Studies with energy dispersive X-ray microanalysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindberg, M.; Sagstroem, S.R.; Roomans, G.M.; Forslind, B.

    1989-01-01

    The effect of sodium lauryl sulphate (SLS), a common ingredient of detergents, on the penetration of nickel through the stratum corneum in the guinea-pig skin model was studied with energy dispersive X-ray microanalysis (EDX) to evaluate the barrier-damaging properties of this common detergent. The EDX technique allows a simultaneous determination of physiologically important elements, e.g., Na, Mg, P, Cl, K, Ca and S in addition to Ni at each point of measurement in epidermal cell strata. Our results show that SLS reduces the barrier function to Ni-ion penetration of the stratum corneum. In addition we have shown that EDX allows analysis of the influence of different factors involved in nickel penetration through the skin by giving data on the physiological effects on the epidermal cells caused by the applied substances

  8. Scenarios of the long term evolution of the energy sector. Energy needs, choices and possibilities: Shell's scenarios for 2050. The long-term evolution of the energy sector. A vision of the 2020-2050 energy mix. Phase dynamics analysis of energy demand scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chevallier, B.; Appert, O; Bauquis, P.R.; Alba, P.

    2002-01-01

    This dossier comprises 4 articles dealing with energy scenarios. The first article presents the prospective studies carried out by the Shell group which lead to the construction of two scenarios entitled: 'dynamics as usual' and 'the spirit of the coming age'. Both scenarios foresee an explosion of the primary energy demand for the coming next 50 years (multiplied by a factor of 2 to 2.8 with respect to 2000) with a decline of hydrocarbons for the benefit of gas and renewable energies (including bio-fuels), while nuclear and coal will still represent a quarter of our needs. However, the main uncertainty remains the demographic expansion during the next 50 years. The second article presents the energy models and projections of the IEA for the long-term evolution of the energy sector (petroleum, gas, coal, renewable energy and uranium resources) and the main uncertainties of these projections (economic growth, environmental policies, technological evolutions). The third article presents the agreements and divergences of the author's forecasts for 2050 with Shell's scenarios, while the last article makes a comparison between the IEA, IIASA-CME and Shell scenarios using a phase dynamics analysis. (J.S.)

  9. Securing energy efficiency as a high priority. Scenarios for common appliance electricity consumption in Thailand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Foran, T. [Unit for Social and Environmental Research USER, Faculty of Social Sciences, Chiang Mai University, P.O. Box 144, Chiang Mai, 50200 (Thailand); Du Pont, P.T. [International Resources Group and Joint Graduate School of Energy and Environment, Bangkok (Thailand); Parinya, P. [The Joint Graduate School of Energy and Environment, King Mongkut' s University of Technology Thonburi, Bangkok (Thailand); Phumaraphand, N. [Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand, Nonthaburi (Thailand)

    2010-11-15

    Between 1995 and 2008, Thailand's energy efficiency programs produced an estimated total of 8,369 GWh/year energy savings and 1,471 MW avoided peak power. Despite these impressive saving figures, relatively little future scenario analysis is available to policy makers. Before the 2008 global financial crisis, electricity planners forecasted 5-6% long-term increases in demand. We explored options for efficiency improvements in Thailand's residential sector, which consumes more than 20% of Thailand's total electricity consumption of 150 TWh/year. We constructed baseline and efficient scenarios for the period 2006-2026, for air conditioners, refrigerators, fans, rice cookers, and compact fluorescent light bulbs. We drew on an appliance database maintained by Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand's voluntary labeling program. For the five appliances modeled, the efficiency scenario results in total savings of 12% of baseline consumption after 10 years and 29% of baseline after 20 years. Approximately 80% of savings come from more stringent standards for air conditioners, including phasing out unregulated air conditioner sales within 6 years. Shifting appliance efficiency standards to current best-in-market levels within 6 years produces additional savings. We discuss institutional aspects of energy planning in Thailand that thus far have limited the consideration of energy efficiency as a high-priority resource.

  10. Experimental Energy Consumption of Frame Slotted ALOHA and Distributed Queuing for Data Collection Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pere Tuset-Peiro

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Data collection is a key scenario for the Internet of Things because it enables gathering sensor data from distributed nodes that use low-power and long-range wireless technologies to communicate in a single-hop approach. In this kind of scenario, the network is composed of one coordinator that covers a particular area and a large number of nodes, typically hundreds or thousands, that transmit data to the coordinator upon request. Considering this scenario, in this paper we experimentally validate the energy consumption of two Medium Access Control (MAC protocols, Frame Slotted ALOHA (FSA and Distributed Queuing (DQ. We model both protocols as a state machine and conduct experiments to measure the average energy consumption in each state and the average number of times that a node has to be in each state in order to transmit a data packet to the coordinator. The results show that FSA is more energy efficient than DQ if the number of nodes is known a priori because the number of slots per frame can be adjusted accordingly. However, in such scenarios the number of nodes cannot be easily anticipated, leading to additional packet collisions and a higher energy consumption due to retransmissions. Contrarily, DQ does not require to know the number of nodes in advance because it is able to efficiently construct an ad hoc network schedule for each collection round. This kind of a schedule ensures that there are no packet collisions during data transmission, thus leading to an energy consumption reduction above 10% compared to FSA.

  11. Experimental energy consumption of Frame Slotted ALOHA and Distributed Queuing for data collection scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuset-Peiro, Pere; Vazquez-Gallego, Francisco; Alonso-Zarate, Jesus; Alonso, Luis; Vilajosana, Xavier

    2014-07-24

    Data collection is a key scenario for the Internet of Things because it enables gathering sensor data from distributed nodes that use low-power and long-range wireless technologies to communicate in a single-hop approach. In this kind of scenario, the network is composed of one coordinator that covers a particular area and a large number of nodes, typically hundreds or thousands, that transmit data to the coordinator upon request. Considering this scenario, in this paper we experimentally validate the energy consumption of two Medium Access Control (MAC) protocols, Frame Slotted ALOHA (FSA) and Distributed Queuing (DQ). We model both protocols as a state machine and conduct experiments to measure the average energy consumption in each state and the average number of times that a node has to be in each state in order to transmit a data packet to the coordinator. The results show that FSA is more energy efficient than DQ if the number of nodes is known a priori because the number of slots per frame can be adjusted accordingly. However, in such scenarios the number of nodes cannot be easily anticipated, leading to additional packet collisions and a higher energy consumption due to retransmissions. Contrarily, DQ does not require to know the number of nodes in advance because it is able to efficiently construct an ad hoc network schedule for each collection round. This kind of a schedule ensures that there are no packet collisions during data transmission, thus leading to an energy consumption reduction above 10% compared to FSA.

  12. Synthetic wind speed scenarios generation for probabilistic analysis of hybrid energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Jun; Rabiti, Cristian

    2017-01-01

    Hybrid energy systems consisting of multiple energy inputs and multiple energy outputs have been proposed to be an effective element to enable ever increasing penetration of clean energy. In order to better understand the dynamic and probabilistic behavior of hybrid energy systems, this paper proposes a model combining Fourier series and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) to characterize historical weather measurements and to generate synthetic weather (e.g., wind speed) data. In particular, Fourier series is used to characterize the seasonal trend in historical data, while ARMA is applied to capture the autocorrelation in residue time series (e.g., measurements with seasonal trends subtracted). The generated synthetic wind speed data is then utilized to perform probabilistic analysis of a particular hybrid energy system configuration, which consists of nuclear power plant, wind farm, battery storage, natural gas boiler, and chemical plant. Requirements on component ramping rate, economic and environmental impacts of hybrid energy systems, and the effects of deploying different sizes of batteries in smoothing renewable variability, are all investigated. - Highlights: • Computational model to synthesize artificial wind speed data with consistent characteristics with database. • Fourier series to capture seasonal trends in the database. • Monte Carlo simulation and probabilistic analysis of hybrid energy systems. • Investigation of the effect of battery in smoothing variability of wind power generation.

  13. Energy-Climate Scenarios: An Adjustment after the Economic Crisis, Fukushima, Durban and... Shale Gases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Criqui, Patrick; Mima, Silvana; Peytral, Pierre-Olivier; Simon, Jean-Christophe

    2012-01-01

    In an article published in these pages in 2011 (no. 373), Patrick Criqui presented a series of scenarios on possible energy and climate trends, taking note of the agreement on climate change signed in late 2009 at the Copenhagen Conference. He pointed out that a paradigm shift was on the cards, which would mean less use of the top-down approach - with national objectives set as a function of international objectives formulated at major conferences - and greater implementation of a bottom-up logic based on national policies put in place in the energy field and as part of the battle against global warming. On the basis of this latter logic, the authors were able to elaborate scenarios at a world level. A few days before the publication of that article, the Fukushima accident occurred in japan, lending fresh impetus to the energy debate in most of the countries using nuclear power. Does that event, combined with the persistence of the debt crisis, the increased extraction of unconventional hydrocarbons (shale oil and gas ) and the fact that international negotiations on climate change (Durban) have merely marked time, modify the projected scenarios -and, if so, to what extent ? Patrick Criqui, Silvana Mima, Pierre-Olivier Peytral and jean-Christophe Simon consider this question in detail here. They begin by examining the impact of these recent events and developments on the current energy and climate situation. Then, after reminding us of the four world energy scenarios (to a time-horizon of 2030-2050) that were developed in 2009 (together with two 'discontinuity scenarios'), they propose an updating that takes account of the perceived consequences of the change of context, stressing two crucial scenarios in particular: the probable (leading to warming in the order of 4 deg. C) and the desirable (limiting warming to 2 deg. C). Lastly, they propose various levers aimed at 'making the desirable trajectory possible' (technological agreements, economic instruments

  14. Closing the gap between short- and long-term scenarios for nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toth, F. L.; Rogner, H.-H.

    2005-01-01

    Many scenarios published in recent years explore the driving forces and assess plausible ranges of global energy use and the resources they draw on. Some scenarios (e.g., OECD IEA, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development International Energy Agency, 2004) focus on the next decade or two and project the evolution of world energy demand, supply as well as the resources, technologies, and prices to match them. Other scenarios (e.g., the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, SRES, prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, 2000) explore the long term with a view to resource availability and depletion, technological transformations, and environmental concerns, predominantly climate change. A persistent gap (see Figure 1) can be observed in the projections for nuclear energy: near-term scenarios typically project a flat or slightly declining contribution of nuclear energy to the world energy supply whereas medium- and long-term scenarios anticipate significant increases. The magnitude of the gap between the OECD IEA (2002) projections and the median of the 40 IPCC SRES scenarios for the year 2020 amounts to almost 300 GWe installed capacity. Reasons for the gap originate in the differences between the analytical frameworks (including projection techniques) adopted by the short- and long-term studies. Another, closely related reason is the difference in the underlying assumptions, particularly their relations to recent trends and the current situation. In addition, near-term projections are heavily influenced by the social context (perceived unpopularity or outright rejection of nuclear power after Chernobyl), political factors (government pronouncements and policies at the national level, diplomacy and balancing of national positions at international organizations), economic aspects (energy market deregulation and liberalization unveiling excess capacities; financial risks), technology matters (the role of learning, definition of

  15. Energy assessment of second generation (2G) ethanol production from wheat straw in Indian scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Archana; Kumar, Akash; Ghosh, Sanjoy

    2018-03-01

    Impact of second-generation ethanol (2G) use in transportation sector mainly depends upon energy efficiency of entire production process. The objective of present study was to determine energy efficiency of a potential lignocellulosic feedstock; wheat straw and its conversion into cellulosic ethanol in Indian scenario. Energy efficiency was determined by calculating Net energy ratio (NER), i.e. ratio of output energy obtained by ethanol and input energy used in ethanol production. Energy consumption and generation at each step is calculated briefly (11,837.35 MJ/ha during Indian dwarf irrigated variety of wheat crop production and 7.1148 MJ/kg straw during ethanol production stage). Total energy consumption is calculated as 8.2988 MJ/kg straw whereas energy generation from ethanol is 15.082 MJ/kg straw; resulting into NER > 1. Major portion of agricultural energy input is contributed by diesel and fertilisers whereas refining process of wheat straw feedstock to ethanol and by-products require mainly in the form of steam and electricity. On an average, 1671.8 kg water free ethanol, 930 kg lignin rich biomass (for combustion), and 561 kg C5-molasses (for fodder) per hectare are produced. Findings of this study, net energy ratio (1.81) and figure of merit (14.8028 MJ/nil kg carbon) proves wheat straw as highest energy efficient lignocellulosic feedstock for the country.

  16. Nuclear energy development in the 21st century: Global scenarios and regional trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-01-01

    The International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO) was launched in 2000, on the basis of a resolution of the IAEA General Conference (GC(44)/RES/21). INPRO helps ensure that sustainable nuclear energy is available in the twenty-first century and seeks to bring together all interested Member States - both technology holders and technology users - to consider joint actions to achieve desired innovations. As of July 2010, 30 countries and the European Commission are members of INPRO. Programme Area B of INPRO, Global Vision - Scenarios and Pathways to Sustainable Nuclear Power Development, is aimed at providing a better understanding of the role of nuclear energy in the context of long term sustainable development. Its objective is to develop global and regional nuclear energy scenarios on the basis of a scientific-technical pathway analysis that lead to a global vision on sustainable nuclear energy development in the twenty-first century, and to support Member States in working towards that vision. This report presents the results of a study undertaken under Programme Area B in INPRO on Nuclear Energy Development in the Twenty-first Century: Global Scenarios and Regional Trends Studies on Nuclear Capacity Growth and Material Flow between Regions. The report does not develop a global vision for nuclear deployment per se, but presents a limited set of technical scenarios of nuclear deployment and considers their implications. It considers a global energy supply system composed of several reactor and fuel cycle types available today and of fast reactors that may be developed in the future to illustrate a possible modelling approach to identify the potential role of interregional transfer of nuclear fuel resources in supporting the global growth of nuclear energy. The study was performed with the participation of sixteen experts from nine INPRO Member States and included a dynamic simulation of material flows in nuclear energy systems using

  17. Introduction condition of a tokamak fusion power plant as an advanced technology in world energy scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hiwatari, R.; Tokimatsu, K.; Asaoka, Y.; Okano, K.; Konishi, S.; Ogawa, Y.

    2005-01-01

    The present study reveals the following two introduction conditions of a tokamak fusion power plant in a long term world energy scenario. The first condition is the electric breakeven condition, which is required for the fusion energy to be recognized as a suitable candidate of an alternative energy source in the long term world energy scenario. As for the plasma performance (normalized beta value β N , confinement improvement factor for H-mode HH, the ratio of plasma density to Greenwald density limit fn GW ), the electric breakeven condition requires the simultaneous achievement of 1.2 N GW tmax =16 T, thermal efficiency η e =30%, and current drive power P NBI N ∼1.8, HH∼1.0, and fn GW ∼0.9, which correspond to the ITER reference operation parameters, have a strong potential to achieve the electric breakeven condition. The second condition is the economic breakeven condition, which is required to be selected as an alternative energy source. By using a long term world energy and environment model, the potential of the fusion energy in the long term world energy scenario is being investigated. Under the constraint of 550 ppm CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere, a breakeven price for introduction of the fusion energy in the year 2050 is estimated from 65mill/kWh to 135mill/kWh, which is considered as the economic breakeven condition in the present study. Under the conditions of B tmax =16T, η e =40%, plant availability 60%, and a radial build with/without CS coil, the economic breakeven condition requires β N ∼2.5 for 135mill/kWh of higher breakeven price case and β N ∼6.0 for 65mill/kWh of lower breakeven price case. Finally, the demonstration of steady state operation with β N ∼3.0 in the ITER project leads to the prospect to achieve the upper region of breakeven price in the world energy scenario. (author)

  18. A Quantitative Analysis of the Impact of Wind Energy Penetration on Electricity Prices in Ireland

    OpenAIRE

    O'Flaherty, Micheál; Riordan, Niall; O'Neill, Noel; Ahern, Ciara

    2014-01-01

    The maturity of wind technology combined with availability of suitable sites means Ireland is on course to generate 40% of its electricity from the wind by 2020.This work sets out to quantify, to what degree, if any, increased wind penetration translates into reduced wholesale and retail prices for electricity. The consensus from the literature is that increasing wind penetration reduces wholesale electricity prices, but views vary as to what degree this translates into reduced retail prices ...

  19. The effectiveness of energy service demand reduction: A scenario analysis of global climate change mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fujimori, S.; Kainuma, M.; Masui, T.; Hasegawa, T.; Dai, H.

    2014-01-01

    A reduction of energy service demand is a climate mitigation option, but its effectiveness has never been quantified. We quantify the effectiveness of energy service demand reduction in the building, transport, and industry sectors using the Asia-Pacific Integrated Assessment/Computable General Equilibrium (AIM/CGE) model for the period 2015–2050 under various scenarios. There were two major findings. First, a 25% energy service demand reduction in the building, transport, and basic material industry sectors would reduce the GDP loss induced by climate mitigation from 4.0% to 3.0% and from 1.2% to 0.7% in 2050 under the 450 ppm and 550 ppm CO 2 equivalent concentration stabilization scenarios, respectively. Second, the effectiveness of a reduction in the building sector's energy service demand would be higher than those of the other sectors at the same rate of the energy service demand reduction. Furthermore, we also conducted a sensitivity analysis of different socioeconomic conditions, and the climate mitigation target was found to be a key determinant of the effectiveness of energy service demand reduction measures. Therefore, more certain climate mitigation targets would be useful for the decision makers who design energy service demand reduction measures. - Highlights: • The effectiveness of a reduction in energy service demand is quantified. • A 25% reduction in energy service demand would be equivalent to 1% of GDP in 2050. • Stringent mitigation increases the effectiveness of energy service demand reduction. • Effectiveness of a reduction in energy demand service is higher in the building sector

  20. Feigenbaum scenario for turbulence and Cantorian E-infinity theory of high energy particle physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El Naschie, M.S.

    2007-01-01

    The work draws some fundamental connections between Feigenbaum's golden mean renormalization group and scenario for turbulence on the one side and high energy particle physics on the other side. The analysis which is based on the natural and obvious connections between the Fibonacci-like geometrical growth rate of ε (∞) spacetime and Feigenbaum's renormalization gives vital information to basic questions not only of quantum geometry, but also of quantum field theory

  1. Comparative energy and exergy performance assessments of a microcogenerator unit in different electricity mix scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonçalves, Pedro; Angrisani, Giovanni; Roselli, Carlo; Gaspar, Adélio R.; Gameiro da Silva, Manuel

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Experimental and energy–exergy modelling of a 6 kW micro-combined heat and power unit. • Evaluation of energy and exergy efficiencies for performance assessment. • Use of exergy and energy indicators for comparison with a reference system. • Use of different renewables supply options into the electric and heat reference system. • The electric grid mix of Portugal and Italy is used and discussed. - Abstract: The Directive 2004/8/EC on the promotion of cogeneration proposes a comparative indicator based on primary energy savings, neglecting some important thermodynamic aspects, such as exergy. This study aims to compare and discuss the usefulness of a set of complementary indicators for performance assessments of cogeneration systems, concerning thermodynamic principles based on first and second law (the exergy approach). As case study, a 6 kW electric output micro-combined heat and power unit was experimentally tested and a model of the unit was developed in TRNSYS. Considering as reference a set of different heat and electricity scenarios, including the actual electric mixes of Portugal and Italy, the indicators case incon (PES) and Primary and Total Irreversibilities Savings (PIS and TIS), as well as energy and exergy renewability ratios were assessed and discussed. The results show that the use of MCHP has higher advantages for the Italian electric grid, than an equivalent scenario considering the Portuguese electric network as reference. As result, for a particular scenario analysed, PES and PIS have 3% and 6% for Portugal, and 10% and 18% for Italy, respectively. Furthermore, for one particular scenario evaluated, the indicators energetic and exergetic renewability ratios have 23% and 14%, respectively for the Portuguese electric grid, and 19% and 10% for the Italian electric system

  2. Characterization and inventories of nuclear materials and wastes for possible future energy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arthur, E.D.

    1997-10-01

    Awareness of the total materials inventory and materials balance associated with differing methods for energy generation is part of present day concerns associated with disparate areas that include atmospheric emissions, resource utilization, health effects, and both current and long term hazards and risks. Nuclear energy, for a number of decades, has been the recipient of significant scrutiny concerning the materials and wastes it generates, particularly in the context of long term solutions to such issues. This paper examines the nuclear materials and waste generation for nuclear energy scenarios spanning the coming century. The paper also briefly addresses wastes (in the form of emissions) from other energy sources and examines requirements associated with backend energy system materials management. Possible future requirements pertaining to CO 2 management are found to place conditions upon waste management generally similar to those for nuclear waste. One example of material flows for the case of coal generation of electricity coupled with carbon sequestration is also given

  3. Cosmological Analysis of Dynamical Chern-Simons Modified Gravity via Dark Energy Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdul Jawad

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to study the cosmological evolution of the universe in the framework of dynamical Chern-Simons modified gravity. We take pilgrim dark energy model with Hubble and event horizons in interacting scenario with cold dark matter. For this scenario, we discuss cosmological parameters such as Hubble and equation of state and cosmological plane like ωϑ-ωϑ′ and squared speed of sound. It is found that Hubble parameter approaches the ranges 75-0.5+0.5 (for u=2 and (74, 74.30 (for u=1,-1,-2 for Hubble horizon pilgrim dark energy. It implies the ranges 74.80-0.005+0.005 (for u=2 and (73.4, 74 (for u=-2 for event horizon pilgrim dark energy. The equation of state parameter provides consistent ranges with different observational schemes. Also, ωϑ-ωϑ′ planes lie in the range (ωϑ=-1.13-0.25+0.24,ωϑ′<1.32. The squared speed of sound shows stability for all present models in the present scenario. We would like to mention here that our results of various cosmological parameters show consistency with different observational data like Planck, WP, BAO, H0, SNLS, and WMAP.

  4. Global scenarios of urban density and its impacts on building energy use through 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Güneralp, Burak; Zhou, Yuyu; Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana; Gupta, Mukesh; Yu, Sha; Patel, Pralit L.; Fragkias, Michail; Li, Xiaoma; Seto, Karen C.

    2017-01-09

    Urban areas play a significant role in planetary sustainability. While the scale of impending urbanization is well acknowledged, we have a limited understanding on how urban forms will change and what their impact will be on building energy use. Using both top-down and bottom-up approaches and scenarios, we examine building energy use, specifically, for heating and cooling. We also assess associated cobenefits and trade-offs with human well-being. Globally, the energy use for heating and cooling by midcentury will reach anywhere from about 45 EJ/yr to 59 EJ/yr (respectively, increases of 5% to 40% over the 2010 estimate). Most of this variability is due to the uncertainty in future urban forms of rapidly growing cities in Asia and, particularly, in China. Compact urban development overall leads to less energy use in urban environments. Delaying the retrofit of the existing built environment leads to more savings in building energy use. Potential for savings in the energy use is greatest in China when coupled with efficiency gains. Advanced efficiency makes the least difference compared to the business-as-usual scenario in energy use for heating and cooling in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa but significantly contribute to energy savings in North America and Europe. A systemic effort that focuses on both urban form and energy-efficient technologies, but also accounts for potential co-benefits and trade-offs, can contribute to both local and global sustainability. Particularly in mega-urban regions, such efforts can improve local environments for billions of urban residents and contribute to mitigating climate change by reducing energy use in urban areas and associated greenhouse gas emissions.

  5. Scenarios for energy transition by ANCRE, the National Alliance for Coordination of Energy Research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    2014-01-01

    Public research institutes - brought together in ANCRE - present their scenarios in order to provide a backdrop for this fundamental transformation about to take place in France. How to reduce to 50% the share of nuclear power by 2025 and to divide by 4 greenhouse gas emissions by 2050? These tools enable ANCRE to calculate the heavy investments that will be necessary to develop new technologies and to build distribution networks. (authors)

  6. Developing Renewable Energy: Comparative Scenarios and Public Policy Perspectives from some Latin American Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Cecilia Lardizabal

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The energy matrix of Latin American and the Caribbean countries has one of the largest renewable energy components when compared to other regions of the world. Nonetheless, by 2009 nearly three-quarters of its structure corresponded to fossil fuels, with most of the countries being net importers of these fuels. This situation marks the region´s dependence on the effects of changes in energy commodities. Therefore, the opportunity lies in higher use of renewable energy sources that contribute to the country´s energy security and represent significant environmental benefits. The purpose of this paper is to provide a comparative analysis of current energy scenarios of six Latin American countries (Mexico, Honduras, Nicaragua, Brazil, Ecuador and Chile in order to evaluate the policies, programs and strategies implemented in the search for greater participation of renewable energy. Considering the importance of the water-energy nexus that could serve to promote renewables under conditions of water scarcity, a qualitative data comparison was accomplished, considering energy consumption, CO2 emissions, GDP and water withdrawals per country. The authors conclude that, despite technological and financial constraints, all the involved countries are moving towards the substitution of a fossil fuel based matrix to a renewable one. This process could be seen as a result of clear policies and strategies that have been set, which include (but are not limited to price regulations setting, preferential prices to electricity generated through renewable energy technologies and incentives formulated to encourage the production of biofuels.

  7. Three solar urban futures: characterization of a future community under three energy-supply scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Milne, M; Adelson, M; Corwin, R

    1979-10-01

    This study examines a hypothetical city of 100,000 people in the year 2025 based on three initially given energy-supply scenarios: Future 1 specifying approximately 6% of the city's demand being met by solar technologies; Future 2 specifying about 25%; and Future 3 seeking maximum use of solar technologies. These three versions of the hypothetical city are to be identical in terms of population, goods and services produced, and energy demand. Their differences are compared in terms of physical layout, environmental quality, socio-economics, and quality of life. It is concluded that in Future 1 and Future 2, the city's residential, commercial, and industrial sectors can easily meet the on-site energy-collection requirements of the given supply scenarios. In Future 3, the Solar City, the residential sector can be totally energy self-sufficient (collecting all needed energy on-site), and the commercial sector can collect 59.7% of its energy requirement. Passive design of buildings plays a large part in these results. The industrial sector can collect on-site only 18.2% of its energy needs. In what is called Future 3A, all three sectors of the hypothetical city can be 100% energy self-sufficient if the land area available for various types of solar collectors is increased 34.5%; the commercial sector needs 650 additional acres, while the industrial sector needs 2800 acres, provided that moderate temperature energy (250/sup 0/F to 600/sup 0/F) is adequate to meet industrial process needs.

  8. Global scenarios of urban density and its impacts on building energy use through 2050.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Güneralp, Burak; Zhou, Yuyu; Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana; Gupta, Mukesh; Yu, Sha; Patel, Pralit L; Fragkias, Michail; Li, Xiaoma; Seto, Karen C

    2017-08-22

    Although the scale of impending urbanization is well-acknowledged, we have a limited understanding of how urban forms will change and what their impact will be on building energy use. Using both top-down and bottom-up approaches and scenarios, we examine building energy use for heating and cooling. Globally, the energy use for heating and cooling by the middle of the century will be between 45 and 59 exajoules per year (corresponding to an increase of 7-40% since 2010). Most of this variability is due to the uncertainty in future urban densities of rapidly growing cities in Asia and particularly China. Dense urban development leads to less urban energy use overall. Waiting to retrofit the existing built environment until markets are ready in about 5 years to widely deploy the most advanced renovation technologies leads to more savings in building energy use. Potential for savings in energy use is greatest in China when coupled with efficiency gains. Advanced efficiency makes the least difference compared with the business-as-usual scenario in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa but significantly contributes to energy savings in North America and Europe. Systemic efforts that focus on both urban form, of which urban density is an indicator, and energy-efficient technologies, but that also account for potential co-benefits and trade-offs with human well-being can contribute to both local and global sustainability. Particularly in growing cities in the developing world, such efforts can improve the well-being of billions of urban residents and contribute to mitigating climate change by reducing energy use in urban areas.

  9. 2009 reference case scenario : Canadian energy demand and supply to 2020 : an energy market assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    The National Energy Board regulates the construction and operation of interprovincial and international oil and gas pipelines and power lines as well as the tolls and tariffs for the pipelines under its jurisdictions. The import and export of natural gas is also regulated by the NEB. The NEB examined the possible energy futures that might unfold for Canadians up to the year 2020. The factors that affect the supply of crude oil, natural gas, liquefied natural gas, electricity and coal in the short term were examined to determine the outlook for deliverability through 2020. The growing demand for energy was reviewed along with the adequacy of future energy supplies, and related issues of emerging technologies, energy infrastructure and energy exports. This assessment provided separate production outlooks for hydrocarbons, electricity and coal and outlined the key uncertainties to the supply outlook. The likely impact of recent economic, energy and policy trends on energy demand and supply were considered. It was concluded that energy markets in Canada will continue to function well. Energy prices will provide appropriate market signals for the development of energy resources to meet Canadian and export demand. A significant portion of Canadian demand for energy will be met by fossil fuels. However, the demand to move towards greener energy fuels should result in fewer greenhouse gas emissions. 1 tab., 27 figs.

  10. Intermediate steps towards the 2000-Watt society in Switzerland: an energy-economic scenario analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schulz, T. F.

    2007-01-01

    In this dissertation by Thorsten Frank Schulz the intermediate steps necessary to realise the 2000-Watt Society in Switzerland are examined. An analysis of an energy-economic scenario shows that the 2000-Watt Society should be seen as a long-term goal. According to the author, the major changes required to allow the implementation of this project concern energy-transformation and energy-demand technologies. Electricity will, according to the author, play an important role in a service-oriented society in the future. In such a transformation even intermediate steps are associated with considerable expense. The aims of the 2000-Watt Society project are listed. Energy and CO 2 balances for the domestic and transport sectors are presented and discussed. Complementary analyses are presented concerning fuel cells and wood-based fuel technologies. Finally, the implications of the 2000-Watt society and the effects of technological change are summarised and an outlook is presented

  11. Climate change and energy scenarios in Asia-Pacific developing countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siddiqi, T.A.; Foell, W.K.; Hills, P.; Nagao, Taiji

    1991-01-01

    Worldwide increases in energy use are the largest source of rising emissions of CO 2 . In the past, Europe and North America were the regions with the largest emissions. The rapid rate of industrialization, combined with population growth, has led to substantial increases in energy use in the developing countries of Asia and the Pacific. If present trends continue, the region will become the largest emitter of CO 2 from the use of fossil fuels within the next two or three decades. In this paper, we examine some alternate energy scenarios for the individual countries of the region and the potential for reducing CO 2 emissions from energy use to the year 2010. (author)

  12. Development of Techniques for Investigating Energy Contributions to Target Deformation and Penetration During Reactive Projectile Hypervelocity Impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-07-01

    inertial system, one can use the Bernoulli equation to describe the process [Wil03]. Estimating an stationary adiabatic process with an incompressible...cally the model is based on the conservation of momentum and energy, supplemented by a correctional term. 9It can be seen, that a smaller liner...system vjet minus the penetration velocity22: vjet,theoretical = vjet − u (9) The whole process can now be described by a simplified Bernoulli formula

  13. Optimal combination of energy crops under different policy scenarios; The case of Northern Greece

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zafeiriou, Eleni; Petridis, Konstantinos; Karelakis, Christos; Arabatzis, Garyfallos

    2016-01-01

    Energy crops production is considered as environmentally benign and socially acceptable, offering ecological benefits over fossil fuels through their contribution to the reduction of greenhouse gases and acidifying emissions. Energy crops are subjected to persistent policy support by the EU, despite their limited or even marginally negative impact on the greenhouse effect. The present study endeavors to optimize the agricultural income generated by energy crops in a remote and disadvantageous region, with the assistance of linear programming. The optimization concerns the income created from soybean, sunflower (proxy for energy crop), and corn. Different policy scenarios imposed restrictions on the value of the subsidies as a proxy for EU policy tools, the value of inputs (costs of capital and labor) and different irrigation conditions. The results indicate that the area and the imports per energy crop remain unchanged, independently of the policy scenario enacted. Furthermore, corn cultivation contributes the most to iFncome maximization, whereas the implemented CAP policy plays an incremental role in uptaking an energy crop. A key implication is that alternative forms of motivation should be provided to the farmers beyond the financial ones in order the extensive use of energy crops to be achieved. - Highlights: •A stochastic and a deterministic LP model is formulated. •The role of CAP is vital in generated income. •Imports and cultivated areas are subsidy neutral. •The regime of free market results in lower income acquired from the potential crop mix. •Non – financial motivation is a key determinant of the farmers’ attitude towards energy crops.

  14. Emissions reduction and economic implications of renewable energy market penetration of power generation for residential consumption in the MENA region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El Fadel, M.; Rachid, G.; El-Samra, R.; Bou Boutros, G.; Hashisho, J.

    2013-01-01

    This paper examines the implications of renewable energy (RE) deployment in power generation for residential consumption in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region under various RE penetration targets. A comparative assessment revealed a great heterogeneity among countries with Turkey dominating as the highest emitter. At the sub-regional level, the Middle East sub-region contributes more than double the GHG emissions estimated for the Gulf and North Africa sub-regions with all sub-regions achieving reductions in the range of 6–38% depending on the RE target penetration and promising up to 54% savings on investment excluding positive externalities associated with the offset of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions savings. - Highlights: ► Heterogeneity in GHG emissions in MENA region with Turkey contributing the most. ► Average regional GHG tCO 2 e/capita of 0.42 decreases to 0.17 with RE penetration. ► GHG emissions regional reduction reaches 8–36% depending on RE target penetration. ► Return on investment in RE promises up to 54% savings excluding positive externalities. ► Carbon credits offer economic incentives rendering RE investment more attractive.

  15. Hawaii Energy Strategy Project 2: Fossil Energy Review. Task IV. Scenario development and analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yamaguchi, N.D.; Breazeale, K. [ed.

    1993-12-01

    The Hawaii Energy Strategy (HES) Program is a seven-project effort led by the State of Hawaii Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism (DBEDT) to investigate a wide spectrum of Hawaii energy issues. The East-West Center`s Program on Resources: Energy and Minerals, has been assigned HES Project 2, Fossil Energy Review, which focuses on fossil energy use in Hawaii and the greater regional and global markets. HES Project 2 has four parts: Task I (World and Regional Fossil Energy Dynamics) covers petroleum, natural gas, and coal in global and regional contexts, along with a discussion of energy and the environment. Task II (Fossil Energy in Hawaii) focuses more closely on fossil energy use in Hawaii: current utilization and trends, the structure of imports, possible future sources of supply, fuel substitutability, and energy security. Task III`s emphasis is Greenfield Options; that is, fossil energy sources not yet used in Hawaii. This task is divided into two sections: first, an in-depth {open_quotes}Assessment of Coal Technology Options and Implications for the State of Hawaii,{close_quotes} along with a spreadsheet analysis model, which was subcontracted to the Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Division of Argonne National Laboratory; and second, a chapter on liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the Asia-Pacific market and the issues surrounding possible introduction of LNG into the Hawaii market.

  16. A low energy dynamical SUSY breaking scenario motivated from superstring derived unification

    CERN Document Server

    Faraggi, Alon E.

    1996-01-01

    Recently there has been a resurgence of interest in gauge mediated dynamical supersymmetry breaking scenarios. I investigate how low energy dynamical SUSY breaking may arise from superstring models. In a three generation string derived model I propose that the unbroken hidden non--Abelian gauge group at the string scale is SU(3)_H with matter multiplets. Due to the small gauge content of the hidden gauge group the supersymmetry breaking scale may be consistent with the dynamical SUSY breaking scenarios. The messenger states are obtained in the superstring model from sectors which arise due to the ``Wilson--line'' breaking of the unifying non--Abelian gauge symmetry. An important property of the string motivated messenger states is the absence of superpotential terms with the Standard Model states. The stringy symmetries therefore forbid the flavor changing processes which may arise due to couplings between the messenger sector states and the Standard Model states. Motivated from the problem of string gauge co...

  17. Politics design of cleaner production in the electric sector for the energy scenarios of Colombia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Figueroa P, Woody; Smith Q, Ricardo

    2001-01-01

    Cleaner production (PML) in Colombia has been implemented as an agreement of wills between the companies of different productive sectors and the Colombian environment ministry. In the electric sector, the agreement of PML has been implemented with successes and difficulties. A concern that exists today among the companies of the electric sector involved in the agreement is about its long-term viability. Supported in the planning tool of scenarios, an analysis of the possible futures of PML in the Colombian electric sector, using the energy scenarios for Colombia (UPME, 2000), is made. PML policies are designed that will allow to analyze its long-term implementation. This work seeks to contribute in the long-term analysis about the evolution and tendencies of PML in the Colombian electric sector, according with the markets dynamics, trends and competitiveness that are gaining space in the international community

  18. Strengthening of the hydrological cycle in future scenarios: atmospheric energy and water balance perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Alessandri

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Future climate scenarios experiencing global warming are expected to strengthen the hydrological cycle during the 21st century (21C. We analyze the strengthening of the global-scale increase in precipitation from the perspective of changes in whole atmospheric water and energy balances. By combining energy and water equations for the whole atmosphere, we obtain constraints for the changes in surface fluxes and partitioning at the surface between sensible and latent components. We investigate the differences in the strengthening of the hydrological cycle in two centennial simulations performed with an Earth system model forced with specified atmospheric concentration pathways. Alongside the Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES A1B, which is a medium-high non-mitigation scenario, we consider a new aggressive-mitigation scenario (E1 with reduced fossil fuel use for energy production aimed at stabilizing global warming below 2 K.

    Our results show that the mitigation scenario effectively constrains the global warming with a stabilization below 2 K with respect to the 1950–2000 historical period. On the other hand, the E1 precipitation does not follow the temperature field toward a stabilization path but continues to increase over the mitigation period. Quite unexpectedly, the mitigation scenario is shown to strengthen the hydrological cycle even more than SRES A1B till around 2070. We show that this is mostly a consequence of the larger increase in the negative radiative imbalance of atmosphere in E1 compared to A1B. This appears to be primarily related to decreased sulfate aerosol concentration in E1, which considerably reduces atmospheric absorption of solar radiation compared to A1B.

    The last decades of the 21C show a marked increase in global precipitation in A1B compared to E1, despite the fact that the two scenarios display almost the same overall increase of radiative imbalance with respect to the 20th century. Our

  19. A world of differences, the normative EOS-scenarios. Final report of a study to found the normative scenarios of the project Energy research scenarios of the Energy Study Centre (ECN, Petten, Netherlands). Een wereld van verschil, de normatieve EOS-scenario's. Eindrapport van een studie ter onderbouwing van de normatieve scenario's van het project Energie Onderzoek Scenario's van het Energie Studie Centrum (ECN, Petten)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dinkelman, G.

    1987-11-01

    Three competing political and economical 'concepts of control' which underlie three normative energy-scenarios are described. The aim of the literature-research carried out for this report was to make the original scenarios more recognizable, and to find out which groups could be expected to support them. The concepts of control bear the names 'Dynamic and growth', 'Dirigation and blockbuilding' and 'Shared development'. They can be seen, so is argued, as competing perspectives on a so-called 'post-Fordist' world. The three concepts of control differ on what they see as common interests and the way they should be looked after. Topics in the description are: the desired rate of European political and economical integration, the borders of Europe, Europe's position in the world, the acceptance of new technologies, the goals they should be used for, and perceived relationships between energy, environment and economy. The scenarios show what happens if these three concepts of control become hegemonic without being forced to compromises. For all three scenarios a short sketch is given of the corresponding dominating energy- and environmental policy and of future relationships within OECD and between OECD on the one hand and NIC's/LDC's on the other. The conclusion of the report is that the ideological differences between the neoliberalism of 'Dynamic and growth' and the green, direct-democracy-politics of 'Shared development' are not as big as they were in the seventies. Especially on the new policy-areas like technology, energy and environment they get closer. But this does not mean that the concept of 'Dirigation and blockbuilding' can be put completely aside. Its goal of economic equality and its emphasis on government dirigation may become more attractive again if it comes out that market regulation leads to a dual society and that it was state-intervention (by

  20. Human health impacts for renewable energy scenarios from the EnerGEO Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lefevre, Mireille; Gschwind, Benoit; Blanc, Isabelle; Ranchin, Thierry; Cofala, Janusz; Fuss, Sabine

    2013-01-01

    This article reports impact results from running the EnerGEO Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA) related to human health for different scenarios in Europe. The scenarios were prepared within the EnerGEO project. The idea of this European project is to determine how low carbon scenarios, and in particular scenarios with a high share of renewable energy, affect concentrations of air pollutants and as a consequence affect human health. PM 2.5 concentrations were estimated with the IIASA Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model on a time horizon up to the year 2050 for different scenarios. We analyse here the estimation of the Loss of Life Expectancy due to PM 2.5 concentrations for the Baseline scenario taken as a reference and the Maximum renewable power scenario. (orig.)

  1. Energy in debate. Civil nuclear and proliferation. Energy scenarios and freedom latitudes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    This publication first gives a presentation of a European colloquium on energy strategies between the nuclear risk and the greenhouse effect. Then dealing with the relationship between nuclear energy and nuclear proliferation, a contribution comments the relationship between the civil use of nuclear energy (notably for electricity production) and the use of nuclear materials for nuclear weapons (posture of the five nuclear States, development of the counter-proliferation policy, proliferating countries and actors, evolution of the political context after the fall of the USSR). The next article discusses the rooms to manoeuvre when defining energy strategies, notably with respect to nuclear energy. It also outlines the challenge of energy efficiency improvement in France, particularly for electricity uses, and by limiting the road traffic dramatic increase. A last article is an answer to critics by the author of a book on the greenhouse effect

  2. The environment and its impact on gas penetration in the energy market east

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mabro, R.E.; Stoppard, M.

    1995-01-01

    The thesis of this paper is that gas, although free from pollution problems is nevertheless more benign generally appreciated. The obstacles to gas penetration are flawed environmental legislation, political factors and,in some areas, a cost disadvantage relative to other fuels which turn out to be higher than the environmental premium which society is prepared to pay. (Author)

  3. Energy and emissions benefits of renewable energy derived from municipal solid waste: Analysis of a low carbon scenario in Malaysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tan, Sie Ting; Hashim, Haslenda; Lim, Jeng Shiun; Ho, Wai Shin; Lee, Chew Tin; Yan, Jinyue

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Feasibility study on the energy and GHG emission reduction for WtE strategies for municipal solid waste (MSW) in Malaysia. • Greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions from WtE strategies analysed using IPCC guideline. • Scenario analysis by comparison of different WtE strategies. • Impact of moisture content of MSW towards energy potential and GHG emission reduction. - Abstract: Ineffective waste management that involves dumping of waste in landfills may degrade valuable land resources and emit methane gas (CH 4 ), a more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). The incineration of waste also emits polluted chemicals such as dioxin and particle. Therefore, from a solid waste management perspective, both landfilling and incineration practices pose challenges to the development of a green and sustainable future. Waste-to-energy (WtE) has become a promising strategy catering to these issues because the utilisation of waste reduces the amount of landfilled waste (overcoming land resource issues) while increasing renewable energy production. The goal of this paper is to evaluate the energy and carbon reduction potential in Malaysia for various WtE strategies for municipal solid waste (MSW). The material properties of the MSW, its energy conversion potential and subsequent greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions are analysed based on the chemical compositions and biogenic carbon fractions of the waste. The GHG emission reduction potential is also calculated by considering fossil fuel displacement and CH 4 avoidance from landfilling. In this paper, five different scenarios are analysed with results indicating a integration of landfill gas (LFG) recovery systems and waste incinerator as the major and minor WtE strategies shows the highest economical benefit with optimal GHG mitigation and energy potential. Sensitivity analysis on the effect of moisture content of MSW towards energy potential and GHG emissions are performed. These evaluations of Wt

  4. Variation of energy absorption and exposure buildup factors with incident photon energy and penetration depth for boro-tellurite (B2O3-TeO2) glasses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayyed, M. I.; Elhouichet, H.

    2017-01-01

    The gamma ray energy absorption (EABF) and exposure buildup factors (EBF) of (100-x)TeO2-xB2O3 glass systems (where x=5, 10, 15, 20, 22.5 and 25 mol%) have been calculated in the energy region 0.015-15 MeV up to a penetration depth of 40 mfp (mean free path). The five parameters (G-P) fitting method has been used to estimate both EABF and EBF values. Variations of EABF and EBF with incident photon energy and penetration depth have been studied. It was found that EABF and EBF values were higher in the intermediate energy region, for all the glass systems. Furthermore, boro-tellurite glass with 5 mol% B2O3, was found to present the lowest EABF and EBF values, hence it is superior gamma-ray shielding material. The results indicate that the boro-tellurite glasses can be used as radiation shielding materials.

  5. The digital society: A scenario for the energy transition by 2072

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maizi, Nadia; Assoumou, Edi; Le Gallic, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    This forward-looking exercise focuses on the energy transition and the compatibility of a society where digital technology has been deployed with France's goal of 'carbon neutrality' by 2072. If we are not careful, climate programs might be compromised owing to the energy needed for information and communications technology. On the supply side, what digital techniques and objects are being designed to address climate problems? On the demand side, what lifestyle trends will this technology trigger in a 'digital society', and what impact will they have on energy consumption? Beyond the results of the scenario imagined herein, it is worthwhile examining a range of decision-making tools for laying out the pathways we would like to take

  6. Renewable energy and CCS in German and European power sector decarbonization scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ludig, Sylvie

    2013-11-06

    In order to avoid unmanageable impacts of anthropogenic climate change, it is necessary to achieve substantial CO{sub 2} emission reductions in all energy sectors. Due to salient decarbonization options such as renewable energy technologies and carbon capture and storage (CCS), the power sector plays a major role in climate change mitigation strategies. However, these options come with a set of challenges: the output of wind and solar energy varies in time and space and CCS faces technical challenges and public acceptance problems. This thesis develops power sector decarbonization scenarios for the EU and Germany while taking into account both the interplay of renewable energy technologies and CCS as mitigation options as well as the technical challenges of renewable energy integration. More specifically, a series of model based studies address the respective roles of CCS and renewable energy technologies in emission reduction strategies while evaluating technical integration options such as transmission, storage and balancing technologies. Results show that large-scale expansion of renewable energies will play the main role in power sector decarbonization scenarios, but the availability of CCS could lead to lower total costs and easier reaching of emission reduction targets through compensation of emissions generated by balancing technologies. Long-distance transmission enables better siting of renewable energy and thus higher achievable renewable shares in power generation and higher capacity factors. These indirect effects of delayed expansions induce additional power system costs, which are high relative to investment costs for new transmission lines. Results also reveal a preference for flexible technologies in combination with high shares of renewables for balancing purposes rather than inflexible baseload plants. A case study for the EU shows that a near-complete decarbonization is possible both with and without transmission expansions, but total power

  7. Energy system analysis of CAES technologies in the Danish energy system with high penetration of fluctuating renewable energy sources

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salgi, Georges Garabeth; Lund, Henrik

    2006-01-01

    countries. However, plans to expand wind power locally and in the neighbouring countries could restrain the export option and create transmission congestion challenges. This results in a need to increase the flexibility of the local electricity system. Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES) has been proposed...... effect on reducing excess electricity production, the storage capacity of CAES has to be increased significantly compared to current technology. It is thus concluded that, seen from a local energy system balance perspective, CAES has little potential for reducing excess electricity production...

  8. Simulation models developed for voltage control in a distribution network using energy storage systems for PV penetration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mihet-Popa, Lucian; Bindner, Henrik W.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents the development of simulation models for DER components in a distribution network, with focus on voltage controllers using energy storage systems for PV penetration. The Vanadium Redox Battery (VRB) system model, used as an energy storage system, was implemented in MATLAB....../Simulink and DIgSILENT PowerFactory, based on the efficiency of different components-such as: cell stacks, electrolytes, pumps and power converters, whilst power losses were also taken into account. The simulation results have been validated against measurements using experimental facility of a distributed power...

  9. Scenario-based energy efficiency and productivity in China: A non-radial directional distance function analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, H.; Zhou, P.; Zhou, D.Q.

    2013-01-01

    Improving energy efficiency and productivity is one of the most cost-effective ways for achieving the sustainable development target in China. This paper employs non-radial directional distance function approach to empirically investigate energy efficiency and energy productivity by including CO 2 emissions as an undesirable output. Three production scenarios, namely energy conservation (EC), energy conservation and emission reduction (ECER), and energy conservation, emission reduction and economic growth (ECEREG), are specified to assess China's energy efficiency and productivity growth during the period of Eleventh Five-Year Plan. Our empirical results show that there exist substantial differences in China's total-factor energy efficiency and productivity under different scenarios. Under the ECEREG scenario, the national average total-factor energy efficiency score was 0.6306 in 2005–2010, while the national average total-factor energy productivity increased by 0.27% annually during the period. The main driving force for energy productivity growth in China was energy technological change rather than energy efficiency change. - Highlights: • China's regional energy efficiency and productivity in 2005–2010 are evaluated. • Three production scenarios are considered. • Non-radial directional distance function with CO 2 emissions is employed. • Technological change is the main driver for China's energy productivity growth

  10. Scenario Testing of the Energy and Environmental Performance of “The Glasgow House”

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tim Sharpe

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the results from a 12-month study of two prototype low energy dwellings built for Glasgow Housing Association (GHA. The houses are intended for mainstream and social tenure within Glasgow and contain a range of energy reducing features including one house with a thermally heavy clay block wall and one house using a conventional timber frame and both houses have sunspaces, Mechanical Ventilation with Heat Recovery (MVHR, solar thermal system and low energy lighting. The dwellings have been subject to an innovative monitoring strategy by MEARU, whereby test occupants (students recruited from the School of Architecture have been asked to inhabit the buildings for six two-week periods using occupancy ‘scripts’ that determine their internal behaviour. The scenarios thus simulate varying patterns of occupancy in both houses simultaneously and the performance of the houses can then been compared. Indications are that although the clay block house had a poorer thermal performance, it did have other qualitative advantages, and consumption differences could be eliminated by exploiting the thermal mass. The performance of the active systems, including the MVHR system, was found to be problematic, and specific scenarios were undertaken to explore the implications of this.

  11. Realisable scenarios for a future electricity supply based 100% on renewable energies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Czisch, G.; Giebel, G.

    2007-01-01

    In view of the resource and climate problems, it seems obvious that we must transform our energy system into one using only renewable energies. But questions arise how such a system should be structured, which techniques should be used and, of course, how costly it might be. These questions were the focus of a study which investigated the cost optimum of a future renewable electricity supply for Europe and its closer Asian and African neighbourhood. The resulting scenarios are based on a broad data basis of the electricity consumption and for renewable energies. A linear optimisation determines the best system configuration and temporal dispatch of all components. The outcome of the scenarios can be considered as being a scientific breakthrough since it proves that a totally renewable electricity supply is possible even with current technology and at the same time is affordable for our national economies. In the conservative base case scenario, wind power would dominate the production spread over the better wind areas within the whole supply area, connected with the demand centres via HVDC transmission. The transmission system, furthermore, powerfully integrates the existing storage hydropower to provide for backup co-equally assisted by biomass power and supported by solar thermal electricity. The main results of the different scenarios can be summarized as follows: 1) A totally renewable electricity supply for Europe and its neighbourhood is possible and affordable. 2) Electricity import from non-European neighbour countries can be a very valuable and substantial component of a future supply. 3) Smoothing effects by the use of sources at locations in different climate zones improve the security of the supply and reduce the costs. 4) A large-scale co-operation of many different countries opens up for the possibility to combine the goals of development policy and climate politics in a multilateral win-win strategy. To aid implementation, an international extension

  12. High Kinetic Energy Penetrator Shielding and High Wear Resistance Materials Fabricated with Boron Nitride Nanotubes (BNNTS) and BNNT Polymer Composites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Jin Ho (Inventor); Sauti, Godfrey (Inventor); Smith, Michael W. (Inventor); Jordan, Kevin C. (Inventor); Park, Cheol (Inventor); Bryant, Robert George (Inventor); Lowther, Sharon E. (Inventor)

    2015-01-01

    Boron nitride nanotubes (BNNTs), boron nitride nanoparticles (BNNPs), carbon nanotubes (CNTs), graphites, or combinations, are incorporated into matrices of polymer, ceramic or metals. Fibers, yarns, and woven or nonwoven mats of BNNTs are used as toughening layers in penetration resistant materials to maximize energy absorption and/or high hardness layers to rebound or deform penetrators. They can be also used as reinforcing inclusions combining with other polymer matrices to create composite layers like typical reinforcing fibers such as Kevlar.RTM., Spectra.RTM., ceramics and metals. Enhanced wear resistance and usage time are achieved by adding boron nitride nanomaterials, increasing hardness and toughness. Such materials can be used in high temperature environments since the oxidation temperature of BNNTs exceeds 800.degree. C. in air. Boron nitride based composites are useful as strong structural materials for anti-micrometeorite layers for spacecraft and space suits, ultra strong tethers, protective gear, vehicles, helmets, shields and safety suits/helmets for industry.

  13. Making Energy-Water Nexus Scenarios more Fit-for-Purpose through Better Characterization of Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yetman, G.; Levy, M. A.; Chen, R. S.; Schnarr, E.

    2017-12-01

    Often quantitative scenarios of future trends exhibit less variability than the historic data upon which the models that generate them are based. The problem of dampened variability, which typically also entails dampened extremes, manifests both temporally and spatially. As a result, risk assessments that rely on such scenarios are in danger of producing misleading results. This danger is pronounced in nexus issues, because of the multiple dimensions of change that are relevant. We illustrate the above problem by developing alternative joint distributions of the probability of drought and of human population totals, across U.S. counties over the period 2010-2030. For the dampened-extremes case we use drought frequencies derived from climate models used in the U.S. National Climate Assessment and the Environmental Protection Agency's population and land use projections contained in its Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS). For the elevated extremes case we use an alternative spatial drought frequency estimate based on tree-ring data, covering a 555-year period (Ho et al 2017); and we introduce greater temporal and spatial extremes in the ICLUS socioeconomic projections so that they conform to observed extremes in the historical U.S. spatial census data 1790-present (National Historical Geographic Information System). We use spatial and temporal coincidence of high population and extreme drought as a proxy for energy-water nexus risk. We compare the representation of risk in the dampened-extreme and elevated-extreme scenario analysis. We identify areas of the country where using more realistic portrayals of extremes makes the biggest difference in estimate risk and suggest implications for future risk assessments. References: Michelle Ho, Upmanu Lall, Xun Sun, Edward R. Cook. 2017. Multiscale temporal variability and regional patterns in 555 years of conterminous U.S. streamflow. Water Resources Research. . doi: 10.1002/2016WR019632

  14. Energy demand in the Norwegian building stock: Scenarios on potential reduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sartori, Igor; Wachenfeldt, Bjorn Jensen; Hestnes, Anne Grete

    2009-01-01

    A model has been developed for studying the effect of three hypothetical approaches in reducing electricity and energy demand in the Norwegian building stock: wide diffusion of thermal carriers, heat pumps and conservation measures, respectively. Combinations of these are also considered. The model has a demand side perspective, considers both residential and service sectors, and calculates energy flows from net to delivered energy. Energy demand is given by the product of activity and intensity matrices. The activity levels are defined for the stock and the new construction, renovation and demolition flows. The intensity properties are defined in archetypes, and are the result of different energy class and heating carriers share options. The scenarios are shaped by combining the activity flows with different archetypes. The results show that adopting conservation measures on a large scale does allow reducing both electricity and total energy demand from present day levels while the building stock keeps growing. The results also highlight the importance of making a clear distinction between the assumptions on intensity and activity levels.

  15. Energy demand in the Norwegian building stock. Scenarios on potential reduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sartori, Igor; Hestnes, Anne Grete [Department of Architectural Design, History and Technology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), 7491 Trondheim (Norway); Wachenfeldt, Bjoern Jensen [SINTEF Building and Infrastructure, 7465 Trondheim (Norway)

    2009-05-15

    A model has been developed for studying the effect of three hypothetical approaches in reducing electricity and energy demand in the Norwegian building stock: wide diffusion of thermal carriers, heat pumps and conservation measures, respectively. Combinations of these are also considered. The model has a demand side perspective, considers both residential and service sectors, and calculates energy flows from net to delivered energy. Energy demand is given by the product of activity and intensity matrices. The activity levels are defined for the stock and the new construction, renovation and demolition flows. The intensity properties are defined in archetypes, and are the result of different energy class and heating carriers share options. The scenarios are shaped by combining the activity flows with different archetypes. The results show that adopting conservation measures on a large scale does allow reducing both electricity and total energy demand from present day levels while the building stock keeps growing. The results also highlight the importance of making a clear distinction between the assumptions on intensity and activity levels. (author)

  16. Energy demand in the Norwegian building stock: Scenarios on potential reduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sartori, Igor [Department of Architectural Design, History and Technology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), 7491 Trondheim (Norway)], E-mail: igor.sartori@sintef.no; Wachenfeldt, Bjorn Jensen [SINTEF Building and Infrastructure, 7465 Trondheim (Norway); Hestnes, Anne Grete [Department of Architectural Design, History and Technology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), 7491 Trondheim (Norway)

    2009-05-15

    A model has been developed for studying the effect of three hypothetical approaches in reducing electricity and energy demand in the Norwegian building stock: wide diffusion of thermal carriers, heat pumps and conservation measures, respectively. Combinations of these are also considered. The model has a demand side perspective, considers both residential and service sectors, and calculates energy flows from net to delivered energy. Energy demand is given by the product of activity and intensity matrices. The activity levels are defined for the stock and the new construction, renovation and demolition flows. The intensity properties are defined in archetypes, and are the result of different energy class and heating carriers share options. The scenarios are shaped by combining the activity flows with different archetypes. The results show that adopting conservation measures on a large scale does allow reducing both electricity and total energy demand from present day levels while the building stock keeps growing. The results also highlight the importance of making a clear distinction between the assumptions on intensity and activity levels.

  17. Energy Savings through Site Renewal in an HSPA/LTE Network Evolution Scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Micallef, Gilbert; Mogensen, Preben

    Mobile network operators are committing themselves to reduce the energy consumption of their networks. However, the expected growth in traffic and the upgrades required to sustain this growth pose a serious question on whether these targets are achievable. Through a case study, this paper looks a...... to just 12%. In some cases, when a less aggressive traffic growth is assumed, the energy savings are enough to balance any increase in energy. In a best case scenario, where all sites are replaced when new equipment is available, energy savings close to 40% are achievable....... at how the energy consumption of a mobile network is likely to develop over a period of nine years, considering the evolution of an existing HSPA layer into a multi-layered (HSPA+LTE) network. Besides, this study also considers four different equipment versions released throughout the years, which...... are introduced in the network based on a replacement strategy. In addition, the two most modern sites are assumed to be configured with remote radio head. In comparison to the reference case which leads to an increase in energy consumption of almost 200%, considering these site upgrades can limit the increase...

  18. Regional allocation of biomass to U.S. energy demands under a portfolio of policy scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mullins, Kimberley A; Venkatesh, Aranya; Nagengast, Amy L; Kocoloski, Matt

    2014-01-01

    The potential for widespread use of domestically available energy resources, in conjunction with climate change concerns, suggest that biomass may be an essential component of U.S. energy systems in the near future. Cellulosic biomass in particular is anticipated to be used in increasing quantities because of policy efforts, such as federal renewable fuel standards and state renewable portfolio standards. Unfortunately, these independently designed biomass policies do not account for the fact that cellulosic biomass can equally be used for different, competing energy demands. An integrated assessment of multiple feedstocks, energy demands, and system costs is critical for making optimal decisions about a unified biomass energy strategy. This study develops a spatially explicit, best-use framework to optimally allocate cellulosic biomass feedstocks to energy demands in transportation, electricity, and residential heating sectors, while minimizing total system costs and tracking greenhouse gas emissions. Comparing biomass usage across three climate policy scenarios suggests that biomass used for space heating is a low cost emissions reduction option, while biomass for liquid fuel or for electricity becomes attractive only as emissions reduction targets or carbon prices increase. Regardless of the policy approach, study results make a strong case for national and regional coordination in policy design and compliance pathways.

  19. Dividing by four CO2 releases due to energy: the Negatep scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Acket, C.; Bacher, P.

    2011-01-01

    The Negatep scenario aims at dividing CO 2 releases by 4, which means, more or less, dividing the consumption of fossil energies by the same factor, in order to comply with the French 2005 energy act. After a description of the situation in 2006, of trends, and a recall of the objectives defined by the 'Grenelle de l'Environnement' regarding energy savings and renewable energies, the authors show that reaching such a reduction requires to: decrease to nearly zero oil and gas in the residential and tertiary sectors, reduce significantly the use of oil in the transport sector, reduce significantly the use of fossil fuels in industry, increase massively the share of electricity in the energy mix, maintain the share of nuclear in the electricity generation and, as long as the storage of electricity is not developed, limit the share of intermittent energies to a level compatible with that of gas turbines. The study shows that the proposed measures can fulfill the objectives for 2020 proposed by the 'Grenelle de l'Environnement'

  20. What scenario studies tell about security of energy supply in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lako, P.; Jansen, J.C.

    2001-06-01

    A technical fact-finding study on security of energy supply has been performed from the European point of view and from the point of view of the Netherlands. A brief assessment is presented of fossil fuel resources. Based on data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and other literature, the reserves/production ratio of conventional and unconventional oil is estimated at approximately 200 years. Based on the same USGS data, the reserves/production ratio of conventional natural gas is estimated at 190 years. The unconventional gas resources are extremely large. However, environmental damage has to be prevented. The amount of recoverable resources will remain a question mark for the time being. The world's proved recoverable coal reserves amount to a reserves/production ratio of 230 years. All in all, oil remains a strategic fossil fuel, whereas the supply of natural gas seems to be more well-balanced and the supply of coal is more secure than both of oil and gas. The so-called Shared analysis project, performed by a number of research institutes in the EU, gives useful points of departure for energy policy formulation. However, the results of notably the reference scenario and to a lesser extent its variants in terms of primary energy use, CO2 emissions, and the EU's import dependence for fossil fuels have to be regarded carefully. A similar picture arises from IEA's World Energy Outlook 2000. The 'Out-look' gives due attention to OECD Europe's dependence on imported oil and gas. The share of oil imports is due to rise from 32% in 1990 to 80% in 2020. Due to a projected steady growth of gas consumption, import dependence with respect to natural gas is due to rise from 34% in 1997 to about 65% in 2020. In the scenarios developed by CPB, in collaboration with AVV, ECN, and RIVM, in 1997, the share of natural gas in total primary energy demand is projected to increase to 50-55% in all of the scenarios. In the most energy intensive scenarios, natural gas is

  1. Review of Congestion Management Methods for Distribution Networks with High Penetration of Distributed Energy Resources

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Huang, Shaojun; Wu, Qiuwei; Liu, Zhaoxi

    2014-01-01

    This paper reviews the existing congestion management methods for distribution networks with high penetration of DERs documented in the recent research literatures. The congestion management methods for distribution networks reviewed can be grouped into two categories – market methods and direct...... control methods. The market methods consist of dynamic tariff, distribution capacity market, shadow price and flexible service market. The direct control methods are comprised of network reconfiguration, reactive power control and active power control. Based on the review of the existing methods...

  2. Potential recovery of industrial wood and energy wood raw material in different cutting and climate scenarios for Finland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaerkkaeinen, Leena; Nuutinen, Tuula; Matala, Juho; Kellomaeki, Seppo; Haerkoenen, Kari

    2008-01-01

    The aim of this study was to estimate the simultaneous recovery of industrial wood and raw material for energy wood from cuttings in Finland during the next 50 years. Two cutting scenarios (maximum and sustainable cuttings) and two climate scenarios (current and changing climate) were analysed to determine their impacts on harvesting potential. The analysis was carried out using sample plot and tree data from the ninth National Forest Inventory and a management-oriented large-scale forestry model (MELA) into which the transfer functions based on physiological modelling were incorporated to describe the impacts of climate change. Depending on the climate scenario, the volume of potential recovery of industrial wood in the maximum cutting scenario during the period 2003-2013 varied from 103 to 105 million m 3 a -1 , while the amount of potential energy wood raw material was 35 Tg a -1 . During the period 2043-2053, in the current climate scenario, the potential recovery of industrial wood was 64 million m 3 a -1 and energy wood raw material 22 Tg a -1 , and in the changing climate scenario, 85 million m 3 a -1 and 29 Tg a -1 , respectively. In the sustainable cutting scenario, depending on the climate scenario used, the potential recovery of industrial wood during the period 2003-2013 varied from 74 to 76 million m 3 a -1 , while the amount of potential energy wood was 25 Tg a -1 . During the period 2043-2053, in the current climate scenario, the potential recovery of industrial wood was 80 million m 3 a -1 and energy wood raw material 26 Tg a -1 , and in the changing climate scenario, 88 million m 3 a -1 and 29 Tg a -1 , respectively. (author)

  3. Energy systems scenario modelling and long term forecasting of hourly electricity demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Poul Alberg Østergaard

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The Danish energy system is undergoing a transition from a system based on storable fossil fuels to a system based on fluctuating renewable energy sources. At the same time, more of and more of the energy system is becoming electrified; transportation, heating and fuel usage in industry and elsewhere. This article investigates the development of the Danish energy system in a medium year 2030 situation as well as in a long-term year 2050 situation. The analyses are based on scenario development by the Danish Climate Commission. In the short term, it is investigated what the effects will be of having flexible or inflexible electric vehicles and individual heat pumps, and in the long term it is investigated what the effects of changes in the load profiles due to changing weights of demand sectors are. The analyses are based on energy systems simulations using EnergyPLAN and demand forecasting using the Helena model. The results show that even with a limited short-term electric car fleet, these will have a significant effect on the energy system; the energy system’s ability to integrated wind power and the demand for condensing power generation capacity in the system. Charging patterns and flexibility have significant effects on this. Likewise, individual heat pumps may affect the system operation if they are equipped with heat storages. The analyses also show that the long-term changes in electricity demand curve profiles have little impact on the energy system performance. The flexibility given by heat pumps and electric vehicles in the long-term future overshadows any effects of changes in hourly demand curve profiles.

  4. Improved calculations of the electronic and nuclear energy losses for light ions penetrating H and He targets at intermediate velocities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grande, P.L. [Rio Grande do Sul Univ., Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil). Inst. de Fisica; Schiwietz, G. [Hahn-Meitner-Institut Berlin GmbH (Germany). Dept. FD

    1994-06-01

    A review is given on the use of the coupled-channel method to calculate the electronic and nuclear energy loss of ions penetrating the matter. This first principle calculation based on an expansion of the time dependent electronic wavefunction in terms of atomic orbitals has been applied to evaluate the impact parameter dependence of the electronic energy loss, the stopping cross-section and the fluctuation is energy loss of ions colliding with H and He atoms at energies of 10 keV/amu to 500 keV/amu. The results have been compared to experimental data as well as to others existing models, local density approximation in an electron gas target, harmonic oscillator target treatment and first order plane-wave-Born approximation. (author). 63 refs, 11 figs.

  5. Greenhouse gas energy scenarios for Mexico in year 2020, and mitigation potential of renewable technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sheinbaum, Claudia; Robles, Guillermo; Rodriguez V, Luis [Instituto de Ingenieria de la UNAM, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico); Massera, Omar [UNAM, Michoacan (Mexico)

    2000-07-01

    This paper presents the structure of the Mexican Energy-Emission Scenario Model (MEESM). In explains the importance of developing a bottom-up model for GHG mitigation assessment in Mexico. Also, the paper presents results of CO{sub 2} mitigation scenarios for year 2020 for five renewable energy technologies: solar water heaters, geothermal, biomass, mini/micro hydro and wind power generation. The paper concludes by discussing the importance of simulation accounting bottom-up models as tools for GHG mitigation policies. [Spanish] Este articulo presenta la estructura del Modelo de Escenario de Emision de Energia Mexicano (MEESM). En el se explica la importancia de desarrollar un modelo organizacional de abajo hacia arriba para la evaluacion de la mitigacion del efecto invernadero en Mexico. El articulo presenta tambien los resultados de los escenarios de mitigacion de CO{sub 2} para el ano 2020 utilizando cinco tecnologias de energia renovable: calentadores solares de agua, geotermia, biomasa, y mini/micro generacion de energia por agua y viento. El articulo concluye con el analisis de la importancia de la simulacion tomando en cuenta modelos organizacionales de abajo hacia arriba como herramientas para las politicas de mitigacion del efecto invernadero.

  6. Estimating bounds on the macroeconomic effects of the Clean Energy Future policy scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanstad, A. H.; DeCanio, S. J.; Boyd, G. A.

    2000-04-04

    The Clean Energy Future (CEF) is a partial equilibrium study in that it focuses specifically on markets for energy services. It is also important, however, to consider potential effects of the CEF policies on overall economic performance. The purpose of this paper is: (1) to provide a framework for interpreting the macroeconomic (or second-order) effects that might occur under the types of scenarios analyzed in the CEF, and (2) to obtain a range of estimates of these effects associated with the Moderate and Advanced scenarios as described in the CEF study. In this paper the authors consider results from both types of model in the context of the CEF study. The primary framework and calculations focus on the second meaning given above of the term macroeconomic and the associated CGE models, because these are appropriate for analysis on the time scales of the CEF, through 2010 or 2020. Because the Keynesian-style macroeconomic models are designed and suited for short-term forecasting, they also discuss the application of one such model to the analysis of the shorter-horizon effects of certain policies to reduce carbon emissions.

  7. Integrated environmental assessment of future energy scenarios based on economic equilibrium models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Igos, E.; Rugani, B.; Rege, S.; Benetto, E.; Drouet, L.; Zachary, D.; Haas, T.

    2014-01-01

    The future evolution of energy supply technologies strongly depends on (and affects) the economic and environmental systems, due to the high dependency of this sector on the availability and cost of fossil fuels, especially on the small regional scale. This paper aims at presenting the modeling system and preliminary results of a research project conducted on the scale of Luxembourg to assess the environmental impact of future energy scenarios for the country, integrating outputs from partial and computable general equilibrium models within hybrid Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) frameworks. The general equilibrium model for Luxembourg, LUXGEM, is used to evaluate the economic impacts of policy decisions and other economic shocks over the time horizon 2006-2030. A techno-economic (partial equilibrium) model for Luxembourg, ETEM, is used instead to compute operation levels of various technologies to meet the demand for energy services at the least cost along the same timeline. The future energy demand and supply are made consistent by coupling ETEM with LUXGEM so as to have the same macro-economic variables and energy shares driving both models. The coupling results are then implemented within a set of Environmentally-Extended Input-Output (EE-IO) models in historical time series to test the feasibility of the integrated framework and then to assess the environmental impacts of the country. Accordingly, a dis-aggregated energy sector was built with the different ETEM technologies in the EE-IO to allow hybridization with Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) and enrich the process detail. The results show that the environmental impact slightly decreased overall from 2006 to 2009. Most of the impacts come from some imported commodities (natural gas, used to produce electricity, and metalliferous ores and metal scrap). The main energy production technology is the combined-cycle gas turbine plant 'Twinerg', representing almost 80% of the domestic electricity production in Luxembourg

  8. Biomass Energy for Transport and Electricity: Large scale utilization under low CO2 concentration scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luckow, Patrick; Wise, Marshall A.; Dooley, James J.; Kim, Son H.

    2010-01-25

    This paper examines the potential role of large scale, dedicated commercial biomass energy systems under global climate policies designed to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of CO2 at 400ppm and 450ppm. We use an integrated assessment model of energy and agriculture systems to show that, given a climate policy in which terrestrial carbon is appropriately valued equally with carbon emitted from the energy system, biomass energy has the potential to be a major component of achieving these low concentration targets. The costs of processing and transporting biomass energy at much larger scales than current experience are also incorporated into the modeling. From the scenario results, 120-160 EJ/year of biomass energy is produced by midcentury and 200-250 EJ/year by the end of this century. In the first half of the century, much of this biomass is from agricultural and forest residues, but after 2050 dedicated cellulosic biomass crops become the dominant source. A key finding of this paper is the role that carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technologies coupled with commercial biomass energy can play in meeting stringent emissions targets. Despite the higher technology costs of CCS, the resulting negative emissions used in combination with biomass are a very important tool in controlling the cost of meeting a target, offsetting the venting of CO2 from sectors of the energy system that may be more expensive to mitigate, such as oil use in transportation. The paper also discusses the role of cellulosic ethanol and Fischer-Tropsch biomass derived transportation fuels and shows that both technologies are important contributors to liquid fuels production, with unique costs and emissions characteristics. Through application of the GCAM integrated assessment model, it becomes clear that, given CCS availability, bioenergy will be used both in electricity and transportation.

  9. Integrated modelling of economic-energy-environment scenarios - The impact of China and India's economic growth on energy use and CO2 emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roques, F.; Sassi, O.; Guivarch, C.; Waisman, H.; Crassous, R.; Hourcade, J.Ch.

    2009-03-01

    A hybrid framework coupling the bottom-up energy sector WEM model with the top-down general equilibrium model IMACLIM-R is implemented to capture the macro-economic feedbacks of Chinese and Indian economic growth on energy and emissions scenarios. The iterative coupling procedure captures the detailed representation of energy use and supply while ensuring the micro-economic and macro-economic consistency of the different scenarios studied. The dual representation of the hybrid model facilitates the incorporation of energy sector expertise in internally consistent scenarios. The paper describes how the hybrid model was used to assess the effect of uncertainty on economic growth in China and India in the energy and emissions scenarios of the International Energy Agency. (authors)

  10. Energy selecting action of limiters on particle fluxes penetrating into the SOL-plasma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hildebrandt, D.

    1986-01-01

    A single model of the penetration of particle effluxes from the core plasma into the SOL-plasma of tokamaks is proposed. The assumptions made are free streaming of particles parallel to the magnetic field and anomalous particle transport perpendicular to the toroidal field with a constant radial velocity. The model has been proved for measured particle fluxes of Li which was injected into the core plasma of the tokamak T-10. The dependence of the Li-particle flux on the minor radius as well as toroidal asymmetries in the SOL-plasma can be explained by the results of the calculations. (author)

  11. On global energy scenario, dye-sensitized solar cells and the promise of nanotechnology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, K Govardhan; Deepak, T G; Anjusree, G S; Thomas, Sara; Vadukumpully, Sajini; Subramanian, K R V; Nair, Shantikumar V; Nair, A Sreekumaran

    2014-04-21

    One of the major problems that humanity has to face in the next 50 years is the energy crisis. The rising population, rapidly changing life styles of people, heavy industrialization and changing landscape of cities have increased energy demands, enormously. The present annual worldwide electricity consumption is 12 TW and is expected to become 24 TW by 2050, leaving a challenging deficit of 12 TW. The present energy scenario of using fossil fuels to meet the energy demand is unable to meet the increase in demand effectively, as these fossil fuel resources are non-renewable and limited. Also, they cause significant environmental hazards, like global warming and the associated climatic issues. Hence, there is an urgent necessity to adopt renewable sources of energy, which are eco-friendly and not extinguishable. Of the various renewable sources available, such as wind, tidal, geothermal, biomass, solar, etc., solar serves as the most dependable option. Solar energy is freely and abundantly available. Once installed, the maintenance cost is very low. It is eco-friendly, safely fitting into our society without any disturbance. Producing electricity from the Sun requires the installation of solar panels, which incurs a huge initial cost and requires large areas of lands for installation. This is where nanotechnology comes into the picture and serves the purpose of increasing the efficiency to higher levels, thus bringing down the overall cost for energy production. Also, emerging low-cost solar cell technologies, e.g. thin film technologies and dye-sensitized solar cells (DSCs) help to replace the use of silicon, which is expensive. Again, nanotechnological implications can be applied in these solar cells, to achieve higher efficiencies. This paper vividly deals with the various available solar cells, choosing DSCs as the most appropriate ones. The nanotechnological implications which help to improve their performance are dealt with, in detail. Additionally, the

  12. Long-term scenarios of energy use and carbon emissions: Summary of results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sathaye, J.

    1991-01-01

    Energy use in developing countries has risen more quickly than in the industrialized world, with a consequent increase in the developing world's share in global modern energy use from 16% in 1970 to 24% in 1987. As a result, while the developing countries' share of carbon dioxide emissions is small today, it is growing rapidly. The following is a brief summary of the aggregate results derived from the work on long-term energy and carbon emissions scenarios for China, India, Indonesia, Korea, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Venezuela, Nigeria, Ghana, Sierra Leone and the sic members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). The countries experience varying rates of population growth between 1985 and 2025. The fastest growth rates occur in Africa - particularly in Nigeria and Ghana - and in the GCC. In Korea and China, where the governments have implemented policies to control the expansion of the population, the growth rates remain significantly lower. The economic growth rates correspond with national projections and/or expert judgment. GDP shows a wide variance across the study countries; and in each country distinct factors account for the differences in rates of growth. Argentina, for example, experiences a relatively slow increase in GDP as the foundation of its economy moves away from manufacturing and towards agriculture-based industry. In contrast, Korea's development of its less energy-intensive industries continues to fuel high rates of economic growth between 1985 and 2025

  13. EnerFuture Energy Scenarios to 2035 'Understanding our Energy Future'. Key graphs and analysis, Enerdata - Global Energy Forecasting - February 2014

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2014-01-01

    The EnerFuture service provides projections to 2035 of energy supply and demand across the world, powered by the POLES model, to help you with what to expect in the energy industry in the mid-term. Our energy forecasting team have developed three key energy scenarios (Balance, Emergence and Renaissance) to illustrate possible futures. Balance scenario: Balance provides an outlook of the energy system up to 2035 based on current policies and trends. Sustained growth of China and other emerging countries is a powerful driver of global energy demand, but confirmed energy policy commitments in several regions play a key role in controlling the pace of growth. However, non-coordinated policies result in soaring CO_2 emissions across the world and energy prices rise. Emergence scenario: This scenario explores the implications of more stringent climate policies, with more ambitious efforts on energy efficiency, initiatives to phase out fossil fuel subsidies and a real emergence of renewable technologies. Europe goes beyond its -20% targets by 2020, and the OECD and emerging countries meet their Copenhagen objectives. Following this, a new green deal is launched to reduce world emissions by a factor of 2 by 2050. Renaissance scenario: With strong efforts in the exploitation and production of unconventional oil and gas resources, the world encounters a fossil fuels renaissance with the appearance of new key actors and ultimately new geopolitical configurations changing the energy independence of several countries. For climate efforts, this new paradigm leads to progressively weaker policies. Further analysis and key findings are available here: - Increasing economic activity and wealth drives energy consumption, in a balance between energy prices and innovation; - As Non-OECD exceeds OECD oil demand, massive financial flows underlie the shifts in global oil trade; - Optimistic resource assumptions and moderate production costs would lead to an oil production Renaissance

  14. The net employment impact of energy transition in France: An input-output analysis of the 'negaWatt' scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quirion, Philippe

    2013-04-01

    We study the impact on employment in France of the implementation of the energy transition scenario built by negaWatt (2011), which provides a massive development of energy savings (through measures of sufficiency and energy efficiency) and renewable energy between 2012 and 2050. Compared to 2010, this scenario results in a halving of CO 2 emissions from energy sources in France in 2030 and a division by 16 in 2050, without capture and storage of CO 2 , without implementation of new nuclear power plant and closing existing plants after 40 years of operation at maximum. We calculate the effect on employment of the implementation of this scenario compared to a baseline scenario that extends recent developments and considers the policies already decided. The method used to calculate the effect on employment of each scenario is to calculate the cost of the main technical and organizational options used, to allocate these costs among the 118 branches of the French economy and multiply these costs by the employment content of each branch. The latter is estimated by input-output analysis, which enables the recording of jobs generated by the production of all inputs. One of two scenarios being more expensive than the other, one must take into account the negative effect on employment of funding such costs. For this, it is assumed that this additional cost is borne by households and that they decrease their consumption accordingly by the same amount. This avoids biasing the results in favour of the most expensive scenario. The implementation of negaWatt scenario leads to a positive effect on employment, on the order of 240 000 full-time equivalent jobs in 2020 and 630,000 in 2030. We study the sensitivity of results to assumptions on prices of imported energy, the evolution of labour productivity, the distribution of costs between households and governments, and finally the consumption-savings decision. The effect on employment is largely positive in all cases. (author)

  15. Development of a tungsten heavy alloy, W-Ni-Mn, used as kinetic energy penetrator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zahraee, S. M.; Salehi, M. T.; Arabi, H.; Tamizifar, M.

    2007-01-01

    The objective of this research was to develop a tungsten heavy alloy having a microstructure and properties good enough to penetrate hard rolled steels as deep as possible. In addition this alloy should not have environmental problems as depleted uranium materials, For this purpose a wide spread literature survey was performed and on the base of information obtained in this survey, three compositions of tungsten heavy alloy were chosen for investigation in this research. The alloys namely 90 W-7 Ni-3 Fe, 90 W-9 Ni-Mn and 90 W-8 Ni-2 Mn were selected and after producing these alloys through powder metallurgy technique, their thermal conductivity, compression flow properties and microstructure, were studied. The results of these investigations indicated that W-Ni-Mn alloys had better flow properties and lower thermal conductivities relative to W-Ni-Fe alloy. In addition Mn helped to obtain a finer microstructure in tungsten heavy alloy. Worth mentioning that a finer microstructure as well as lower thermal conductivity in this type of alloys increased the penetration depth due to formation of adiabatic shear bands during impact

  16. A scenario approach to the energy-mix in the Netherlands. An outlook for the year 2025

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fraanje, I.M.M.

    1996-08-01

    The research in this thesis gives an answer to the question: What are the options for the energy mix for the Netherlands in 2025. The energy mix, however, depends on the total energy demand. A scenario approach is used to determine the total demand. The scenarios have been developed by identifying the most important and uncertain driving forces: Dutch economic development, Dutch government policy and the international political situation. Assigning different values to these driving forces have resulted in three scenarios: Market-forces-drive-on, Europe-rules, and Crusade-against-destruction. To quantify the energy demand for each of these scenarios, growth rates of the energy demand have been used of the European Union scenarios that match with our scenarios. Once the energy demand is known, the determination of the energy mix has been performed by answering three questions. First, what is the relative contribution of the different energy carriers (electricity, heat, fuel) in the demand of the end-user. Next, what kind of conversion technologies will be required. Finally, what type of energy sources can be the input for those conversion technologies. The scenarios developed in this study are instrumental in answering these questions. The sources construct the energy mix. The different options for the energy mix in 2025 show the following principal characteristics: The share of renewable energy sources in the energy mix stays limited (Market-forces-drive-on 7%, Europe-rules 13%, Crusade-against-destruction 4%); The share of fossil fuels remains large in all scenarios. Especially the dependence on natural gas stays large: Market-forces-drive-on 63%, Europe-rules 63%, Crusade-against-destruction 68%; The CO2-emissions will stabilize and amount with respect to 1994 (156 Mton) to: Market-forces-drive-on: + 11 Mton Europe-rules: 18 Mton Crusade-against-destruction: + 4 Mton. Finally, some comments are given on the current energy policy of the Dutch government. It is

  17. Sustain ability, energy and climate change, future scenarios; Sostenibilidad, energia y cambio climatico, escenarios con futuro

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jimenez Beltran, D.

    2009-07-01

    The permanent social and environmental crisis and the nowadays economic and financial ones add only to the reasons for a change in the development models at all levels. The article reviews the preconditions for change at global level, the EU Agenda for Change to be reinforced and above all implemented at EU level, so that the EU can show the way and lead the Change. Also analyses the scenarios with a future for Spain, so that Spain can participate in both changes and act as a showcase , participating and even leading this third industrial revolution and obtaining the competitive advantages of the pioneers, considering in particular the potentials in renewable energy sources and the need, in any case, of a radical change in Spain's ongoing development model. (Author)

  18. Molecular dynamics simulations of ballistic He penetration into W fuzz

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klaver, T. P. C.; Nordlund, K.; Morgan, T. W.; Westerhof, E.; Thijsse, B. J.; van de Sanden, M. C. M.

    2016-01-01

    Results are presented of large-scale Molecular Dynamics simulations of low-energy He bombardment of W nanorods, or so-called ‘fuzz’ structures. The goal of these simulations is to see if ballistic He penetration through W fuzz offers a more realistic scenario for how He moves through fuzz layers

  19. Co-exploring the Water-Energy-Food Nexus: Facilitating Dialogue through Participatory Scenario Building

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oliver W. Johnson

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The “water-energy-food nexus” has become an increasingly popular way to frame the challenges associated with reconciling human development objectives with responsible management of natural resources and ecosystems. Yet the nexus is complex, requiring effective engagement between expert and Non-expert stakeholders in order to understand biophysical inter-linkages between resources and resource flows and social interactions between different actors in the socio-ecological system and landscape. This can be a substantial challenge due to varying levels of knowledge and understanding amongst actors with divergent, and often entrenched, interests. This paper presents insights on how participatory scenario-building processes can create space for dialogue amongst stakeholders with differing knowledge, experience, priorities, and political perspectives. Drawing on completed and on-going research applying a “nexus toolkit” in Ethiopia and Rwanda respectively, we contribute to a generalized conceptual framework for addressing, communicating, and assessing the water-energy-food nexus, with a particular focus on how to utilize the nexus concept in practice. This framework has significant potential to help better understand interactions at landscape level, for example, between charcoal production, food production, and environmental systems. We find that participatory scenario-building processes that facilitate engagement beyond technical aspects to include social, economic and political concerns provide a valuable space for discussing and negotiating development pathways that are sustainable both biophysically and socio-economically. In addition, the involvement of stakeholders throughout the project process greatly enhances the quality and legitimacy of results. Furthermore, we suggest that by building capacity amongst stakeholders to maintain a quantitative “nexus toolkit,” it has a better chance of informing decision-making and for supporting

  20. Energy saving and CO2 mitigation through restructuring Jordan's transportation sector: The diesel passenger cars scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Hinti, I.; Al-Ghandoor, A.; Akash, B.; Abu-Nada, E.

    2007-01-01

    The transportation sector is responsible for 37% of the total final energy consumption in Jordan, with passenger cars taking a share of 57% in this sector. Improvement of the energy efficiency of the transportation sector can help in alleviating socio-economic pressures resulting from the inflating fuel bill and in lowering the relatively high CO 2 emission intensity. Current legislations mandate that all passenger cars operating in Jordan are to be powered with spark ignition engines using gasoline fuel. This paper examines potential benefits that can be achieved through the introduction of diesel cars to the passenger cars market in Jordan. Three scenarios are suggested for implementation and investigated with a forecasting model on the basis of local and global trends over the period 2007-2027. It is demonstrated that introducing diesel passenger cars can slow down the growth of energy consumption in the transportation sector resulting in significant savings in the national fuel bill. It is also shown that this is an effective and feasible option for cutting down CO 2 emissions

  1. Analysis of a Spanish energy scenario with Generation IV nuclear reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ochoa, Raquel; Jimenez, Gonzalo; Perez-Martin, Sara

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Spanish energy scenario for the hypothetical deployment of Gen-IV SFR reactors. • Availability of national resources is assessed, considering SFR’s breeding. • An assessment of the impact of transmuting MA on the final repository. • SERPENT code with own pre- and post-processing tools were employed. • The employed SFR core design is based on the specifications of the CP-ESFR. - Abstract: The advantages of fast-spectrum reactors consist not only of an efficient use of fuel through the breeding of fissile material and the use of natural or depleted uranium, but also of the potential reduction of the amount of actinides such as americium and neptunium contained in the irradiated fuel. The first aspect means a guaranteed future nuclear fuel supply. The second fact is key for high-level radioactive waste management, because these elements are the main responsible for the radioactivity of the irradiated fuel in the long term. The present study aims to analyze the hypothetical deployment of a Gen-IV Sodium Fast Reactor (SFR) fleet in Spain. A nuclear fleet of fast reactors would enable a fuel cycle strategy different than the open cycle, currently adopted by most of the countries with nuclear power. A transition from the current Gen-II to Gen-IV fleet is envisaged through an intermediate deployment of Gen-III reactors. Fuel reprocessing from the Gen-II and Gen-III Light Water Reactors (LWR) has been considered. In the so-called advanced fuel cycle, the reprocessed fuel used to produce energy will breed new fissile fuel and transmute minor actinides at the same time. A reference case scenario has been postulated and further sensitivity studies have been performed to analyze the impact of the different parameters on the required reactor fleet. The potential capability of Spain to supply the required fleet for the reference scenario using national resources has been verified. Finally, some consequences on irradiated final fuel inventory are assessed

  2. Supporting energy initiatives in small communities by linking visions with energy scenarios and multi-criteria assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trutnevyte, Evelina; Stauffacher, Michael; Scholz, Roland W.

    2011-01-01

    Many decisions about future energy systems in small communities are based on the visions of several key actors about the ideal-type system. Although meaningful, such visions may not inclusively represent the objectives of all relevant actors. Moreover, the visions are mostly intuitively judged by these actors and reflect their experiences and concerns. Yet, analytical expertise provides essential information about the required decisions and their consequences. We argue that coming up with a number of alternative visions about a future energy system and addressing these visions from both intuitive and analytical perspectives leads to better-quality decisions. This paper presents a case study in the small Swiss community of Urnäsch, where actors from practice and academia collaborated in a transdisciplinary process to address the future energy system. Visions of these actors about the ideal-type energy system were linked both with energy scenarios that analytically specified options to implement these visions and with stakeholder-based multi-criteria assessment of the consequences. As a result, most of the involved actors adjusted their initial vision preferences. Thus, we believe this approach could lead to capacity building and formation of stable, informed preferences, which are necessary to support a transition in the coming decades. - Highlights: ► Linking energy visions with realistic options and their consequences. ► Novel methodology developed to support this. ► Applied in a case study whereby stakeholders revised visions in light of results. ► Energy initiatives in small communities are facilitated and supported analytically.

  3. Swiss pumped hydro storage potential for Germany's electricity system under high penetration of intermittent renewable energy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Meerwijk, Aagje J. H.; Benders, Reinerus; Davila-Martinez, Alejandro; Laugs, Gideon A. H.

    2016-01-01

    In order to cut greenhouse-gas emissions and increase energy security, the European Commission stimulates the deployment of intermittent renewable energy sources (IRES) towards 2050. In an electricity system with high shares of IRES implemented in the network, energy balancing like storage is needed

  4. Analysis of the sector petroleum refineries in energy scenarios for The Netherlands. Analyse van de sector raffinaderijen voor de Nationale Energie Verkenningen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Oostvoorn, F

    1926-07-01

    The calculations with regard to the oil sector in general and the petroleum refineries in particular of the energy scenarios for The Netherlands are described. Calculations have been made with the help of the energy models SELPE and SERUM, developed for the total energy scene of The Netherlands and the petroleum refineries respectively. The results of the calculations with respect to the petroleum refineries are compared. This resulted in adjustment of the parameters for the oil sector in the SELPE energy model and the consequences of these adjustments for the energy scenarios for The Netherlands. 3 figs., 15 tabs., 10 refs.

  5. Scenarios for cutting down energy-related climate gas emissions in Germany; Szenarien zur Minderung energiebedingten Klimagasemissionen in Deutschland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hake, J.F.; Kuckshinrichs, W. [Forschungszentrum Juelich (Germany). Programmgruppe Systemforschung und Technologische Entwicklung (STE)

    1998-12-31

    Developing successful strategies for cutting down climate gas emissions is an extremely complex task. This goal can be aimed at by a combination of measures. But the results of individual scenarios are no immediate clue to their practicability. The results of scenarios must always be discussed within the context of the assumptions made and, where applicable, the targets set. Consequently, their informative value is limited. The contribution of scenarios to the answering of energy-political issues is that they define possible scope for action. (orig.)

  6. Optimal balance between energy demand and onsite energy generation for robust net zero energy buildings considering future scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kotireddy, R.R.; Hoes, P.; Hensen, J.L.M.

    2015-01-01

    Net-zero energy buildings have usually very low energy demand, and consequently heating ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems are designed and controlled to meet this low energy demand. However, a number of uncertainties in the building use, operation and external conditions such as

  7. Comparative analysis of greenhouse gas emissions between scenarios - Contribution of the Experts Group - National Debate on Energy Transition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salomon, Thierry

    2013-01-01

    Within the frame of the French national debate on energy transition, this document briefly presents and comments calculations of greenhouse gas emissions according to 11 scenarios associated with 4 pathways: electrification and de-carbonation (NegaTEP), steady demand and diversification (Ancre DIV), efficiency and diversification (Ademe), and energy saving and phasing out nuclear (Negawatt). These pathways and scenarios are analysed in terms of greenhouse gas emissions and with respect to the objective of a factor-4 reduction by 2050. Emission data for 1990 and 2011 are recalled, as well as France commitments. The author outlines that only four scenarios reach this factor-4 objective as far as CO 2 combustion is concerned, that a factor 2 seems to be possible for some specific sectors (agriculture and wastes). He notices significant decreases in industrial processes since 1990, that only 2 scenarios and 2 pathways reach the factor-4 as far as all greenhouse gases are concerned. When taking energy demand into account, no scenario is able to reach the factor-4 without any strong policy of energy saving. Two conditions are therefore identified to reach this factor: a significant decrease of energy demand, and an action on all emission sources

  8. Analysis of potential for market penetration of renewable energy technologies in peripheral islands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monteiro Alves, L.M.; Lopes Costa, A.; Graca Carvalho, M.

    2000-01-01

    Cape Verde Islands have important energy and water problems that limit their social and economic development. A field study will be performed focused on Cape Verde Islands to describe the present and future regional power market and to give a clear indication of the best strategies for the optimization of the power energy supply mix in Cape Verde Islands. The study will take into consideration renewable energy technologies and the concerned social, economic and environmental aspects of a given set of possible strategies. One case study will be considered in detail: the situation of the Santo Antao Island. Different energy technologies will be considered: solar, wind, geothermal and biomass. The present structure of the energy sector (capacity, distribution); energy demand, supply and trend; generating plants and infrastructures of Santo Antao will be described. (author)

  9. Intermediate steps towards the 2000 W society in Switzerland: An energy-economic scenario analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schulz, Thorsten F.; Kypreos, Socrates; Barreto, Leonardo; Wokaun, Alexander

    2008-01-01

    In the future, sustainable development under the umbrella of the 2000 W society could be of major interest. Could the target of the 2000 W society, i.e. a primary energy per capita (PEC) consumption of 2000 W, be realized until 2050? Various combinations of PEC and CO 2 targets are tested, and the additional costs to be paid by the society are estimated. The assessment is carried out with the Swiss MARKAL model, a bottom-up energy-system model projecting future technology investments for Switzerland. The analysis reveals that the 2000 W society should be seen as a long-term goal. For all contemplated scenarios, a PEC consumption of 3500 W per capita (w/cap) is feasible in the year 2050. However, strong PEC consumption targets can reduce CO 2 emissions to an equivalent of 5% per decade at maximum. For stronger CO 2 emission reduction goals, corresponding targets must be formulated explicitly. At an oil price of 75 US$ 2000 /bbl in 2050, the additional (cumulative, discounted) costs to reach a 10% CO 2 reduction per decade combined with a 3500 W per capita target amount to about 40 billion US$ 2000 . On the contrary, to reach pure CO 2 reduction targets is drastically cheaper, challenging the vision of the 2000 W society

  10. Core to surge-line energy transport in a severe accident scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marzo, M. di; Almenas, K.; Gopalnarayanan, S.

    1994-01-01

    The analysis of loss of coolant accidents in a nuclear power plant, which progress to the stage where the core is uncovered, poses important safety related questions. One of these concerns the rate of energy transport to metal components of the primary system. An experimental program has been conducted at the Univ. of Maryland test facility which quantifies the rate of energy transfer from an uncovered core in a B ampersand W (once-through type steam generators) plant. SF 6 is used to simulate the natural circulation driving force of the high pressure steam expected at prototypical conditions. A time-dependent scaling methodology is developed to transpose experimental data to prototypical conditions. To achieve this transformation, a nominal fluid temperature increase rate of 1.0 degrees C/s is inferred from available TMI-2 event data. To bracket the range of potential prototypical transient scenarios, temperature ramps of 0.8 degrees C/s and 1.2 degrees C/s are also considered. Repeated tests, covering a range of test facility conditions, lead to estimated failure times at the surge line nozzle of 1.5 to 2 hours after initiation of the natural circulation phase of the transient

  11. Optimizing Aggregation Scenarios for Integrating Renewable Energy into the U.S. Electric Grid

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corcoran, B. A.; Jacobson, M. Z.

    2010-12-01

    This study is an analysis of 2006 and 2007 electric load data, wind speed and solar irradiance data, and existing hydroelectric, geothermal, and other power plant data to quantify benefits of aggregating clean electric power from various Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) regions in the contiguous United States. First, various time series, statistics, and probability methods are applied to the electric load data to determine if there are any desirable demand-side results—specifically reducing variability and/or coincidence of peak events, which could reduce the amount of required carbon-based generators—in combining the electricity demands from geographically and temporally diverse areas. Second, an optimization algorithm is applied to determine the least-cost portfolio of energy resources to meet the electric load for a range of renewable portfolio standards (RPS’s) for each FERC region and for various aggregation scenarios. Finally, the installed capacities, ramp rates, standard deviation, and corresponding generator requirements from these optimization test runs are compared against the transmission requirements to determine the most economical organizational structure of the contiguous U.S. electric grid. Ideally, results from this study will help to justify and identify a possible structure of a federal RPS and offer insight into how to best organize regions for transmission planning.

  12. Scenario comparisons of gasification technology using energy life cycle assessment for bioenergy recovery from rice straw in Taiwan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shie, J.L.; Lee, C.H.; Chen, C.S.; Lin, K.L.; Chang, C.Y.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • The energy balances of potential gasification technology and limitation boundary are evaluated. • The transportation and pre-treatment are the greatest parts of energy use. • Every technology process has positive energy benefits at all on-site pre-treatment cases. • The optimal ranges of transportation distance and treatment capacity are suggested. • The optimal technology from the tendency model is addressed. - Abstract: This study uses different scenarios to evaluate, by means of energy life-cycle assessments (ELCAs), the energy balance of potential gasification technology and limitation boundaries in Taiwan. Rice straw is chosen as the target material in this study because it is the most significant agriculture waste in Taiwan. Energy products include syngas (CO + H 2 ), methane, carbon dioxide and carbon black residue. The scenarios simulate capacities of 50,000–200,000 tons/year. The distances of collection and transportation are calculated by a circular area 50–100 km in diameter. Also, the on-site and off-site pretreatments of rice straw are evaluated. For this optimum scenario case, the average of the total input energy for the assessed systems is about 15.9% of the average output energy; the value of the net energy balance (NEB) is 0.841. Every technological process has positive energy benefits at all on-site scenario cases. As the capacity is increased, the energy consumption required for transportation increases and the values of the energy indicators decrease. According to the limitation boundaries from the tendency model at on-site cases, the suggested transportation distance and treatment capacity are below 114.72 km and 251,533 tons/year, respectively, while the energy return on investment (EROI) value is greater than 1

  13. Model for calculating regional energy use, industrial production and greenhouse gas emissions for evaluating global climate scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vries, H.J.M. de; Olivier, J.G.J.; Wijngaart, R.A. van den; Kreileman, G.J.J.; Toet, A.M.C.

    1994-01-01

    In the integrated IMAGE 2.0 model the 'Energy-Industry System' is implemented as a set of models to develop global scenarios for energy use and industrial processes and for the related emissions of greenhouse gases on a region specific basis. The Energy-Economy model computes total energy use, with a focus on final energy consumption in end-use sectors, based on economic activity levels and the energy conservation potential (end-use approach). The Industrial Production and Consumption model computes the future levels of activities other than energy use, which lead to greenhouse gas emissions, based on relations with activities defined in the Energy-Economy model. These two models are complemented by two emissions models, to compute the associated emissions by using emission factors per compound and per activity defined. For investigating energy conservation and emissions control strategy scenarios various techno-economic coefficients in the model can be modified. In this paper the methodology and implementation of the 'Energy-Industry System' models is described as well as results from their testing against data for the period 1970-1990. In addition, the application of the models is presented for a specific scenario calculation. Future extensions of the models are in preparation. 59 refs., 17 figs., 21 tabs

  14. A review of Danish integrated multi-energy system flexibility options for high wind power penetration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Jiawei; Zong, Yi; You, Shi

    2017-01-01

    The current status of wind power and the energy infrastructure in Denmark is reviewed in this paper. The reasons for why Denmark is a world leader in wind power are outlined. The Danish government is aiming to achieve 100% renewable energy generation by 2050. A major challenge is balancing load...

  15. Is there a water–energy nexus in electricity generation? Long-term scenarios for the western United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ackerman, Frank; Fisher, Jeremy

    2013-01-01

    Water is required for energy supply, and energy is required for water supply, creating problems as demand for both resources grows. We analyze this “water–energy nexus” as it affects long-run electricity planning in the western United States. We develop four scenarios assuming: no new constraints; limits on carbon emissions; limits on water use; and combined carbon and water limits. We evaluate these scenarios through 2100 under a range of carbon and water prices. The carbon-reducing scenarios become cost-effective at carbon prices of about $50–$70 per ton of CO 2 , moderately high but plausible within the century. In contrast, the water-conserving scenarios are not cost-effective until water prices reach thousands of dollars per acre-foot, well beyond foreseeable levels. This is due in part to the modest available water savings: our most and least water-intensive scenarios differ by less than 1% of the region's water consumption. Under our assumptions, Western electricity generation could be reshaped by the cost of carbon emissions, but not by the cost of water, over the course of this century. Both climate change and water scarcity are of critical importance, but only in the former is electricity generation central to the problem and its solutions. - Highlights: • We model long-run electricity supply and demand for the western United States. • We evaluate the costs of carbon-reducing and water-conserving scenarios. • Carbon-reducing scenarios become cost-effective at carbon prices of $50–70 per ton CO 2 . • Water-conserving scenarios are only cost-effective above $4000/acre-foot of water. • Electricity planning is central to climate policy, but much less so to water planning

  16. Electricity and heat system development scenarios integrated in the energy system sustainable development in Romania in the period 2005 - 2025

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marin, Otilia; Leca, Aureliu

    2004-01-01

    After 50 years of centralized economy, since 1989, Romania faces many challenges related to the internal conditions and to the new trends in energy markets over the world as: the existing low efficiency and availability, fast structural changes; the decentralization and privatization of the energy sector with new structures and entities; integration in EU and NATO structures. At present, with transition from the national vertical integrated monopolies to an open market, the determination of the global optimum development scenario of the power and heat sector becomes more important in order to find the policy which can lead the own strategies of different companies involved on market to a sustainable development of the society. The paper presents four long term development scenarios of the electricity and heat sector quantified from different points of view: technical, economical, environmental, social criteria, security of supply, risk diminishing etc and it continues by determining the long term global optimum development scenario integrated in the sustainable energy system. (authors)

  17. Sustainable Systems Analysis of Production and Transportation Scenarios for Conventional and Bio-based Energy Commodities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doran, E. M.; Golden, J. S.; Nowacek, D. P.

    2013-12-01

    International commerce places unique pressures on the sustainability of water resources and marine environments. System impacts include noise, emissions, and chemical and biological pollutants like introduction of invasive species into key ecosystems. At the same time, maritime trade also enables the sustainability ambition of intragenerational equity in the economy through the global circulation of commodities and manufactured goods, including agricultural, energy and mining resources (UN Trade and Development Board 2013). This paper presents a framework to guide the analysis of the multiple dimensions of the sustainable commerce-ocean nexus. As a demonstration case, we explore the social, economic and environmental aspects of the nexus framework using scenarios for the production and transportation of conventional and bio-based energy commodities. Using coupled LCA and GIS methodologies, we are able to orient the findings spatially for additional insight. Previous work on the sustainable use of marine resources has focused on distinct aspects of the maritime environment. The framework presented here, integrates the anthropogenic use, governance and impacts on the marine and coastal environments with the natural components of the system. A similar framework has been highly effective in progressing the study of land-change science (Turner et al 2007), however modification is required for the unique context of the marine environment. This framework will enable better research integration and planning for sustainability objectives including mitigation and adaptation to climate change, sea level rise, reduced dependence on fossil fuels, protection of critical marine habitat and species, and better management of the ocean as an emerging resource base for the production and transport of commodities and energy across the globe. The framework can also be adapted for vulnerability analysis, resilience studies and to evaluate the trends in production, consumption and

  18. Present Scenario of Renewable Energy in Bangladesh and a Proposed Hybrid System to Minimize Power Crisis in Remote Areas

    OpenAIRE

    Chowdhury, Nahid -UR-Rahman; Reza, Syed Enam; Nitol, Tofaeel Ahamed; Mahabub, Abd-Al-Fattah IBNE

    2016-01-01

    Abstract- Bangladesh is a densely populated country located at the South-East corner of Asia. Only 48.5% of people here have access to the grid electricity. This paper provides a comprehensive study of the contemporary renewable energy scenario in Bangladesh in terms of distribution, research and infrastructural development in the country. Renewable energy is the smartest solution of increasing energy crisis caused by using fossil fuels. But sometimes it faces question of reliability which ca...

  19. Scenario analysis on future electricity supply and demand in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Qi; Ishihara, Keiichi N.; Mclellan, Benjamin C.; Tezuka, Tetsuo

    2012-01-01

    Under continuing policies of CO 2 emissions reduction, it is crucial to consider scenarios for Japan to realize a safe and clean future electricity system. The development plans for nuclear power and renewable energy - particularly solar and wind power - are being reconsidered in light of the Fukushima nuclear accident. To contribute to this, in the present study, three electricity supply scenarios for 2030 are proposed according to different future nuclear power development policies, and the maximum penetration of renewable energy generation is pursued. On the other side of the equation, three electricity demand scenarios are also proposed considering potential energy saving measures. The purpose of the study is to demonstrate quantitatively the technological, economic and environmental impacts of different supply policy selections and demand assumptions on future electricity systems. The scenario analysis is conducted using an input–output hour-by-hour simulation model subject to constraints from technological, economic and environmental perspectives. The obtained installed capacity mix, power generation mix, CO 2 emissions, and generation cost of the scenarios were inter-compared and analyzed. The penetration of renewable energy generation in a future electricity system in Japan, as well as its relationship with nuclear power share was uncovered. -- Highlights: ► Scenario analysis is conducted on future electricity systems under different supply policies and demand assumptions. ► Scenario analysis is conducted using a input–output hour-by-hour simulation model for real-time demand-supply balance. ► The technological, economic and environmental impacts of supply policies and demand assumptions on future electricity systems are studied. ► The maximum penetration of renewable energy generation is pursued in the scenario analysis using the hour-by-hour simulation. ► The relationship between the penetration levels of renewable energy and nuclear power

  20. [Synergistic emission reduction of chief air pollutants and greenhouse gases-based on scenario simulations of energy consumptions in Beijing].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Yuan-bo; Li, Wei

    2013-05-01

    It is one of the common targets and important tasks for energy management and environmental control of Beijing to improve urban air quality while reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). Here, based on the interim and long term developmental planning and energy structure of the city, three energy consumption scenarios in low, moderate and high restrictions were designed by taking the potential energy saving policies and environmental targets into account. The long-range energy alternatives planning (LEAP) model was employed to predict and evaluate reduction effects of the chief air pollutants and GHG during 2010 to 2020 under the three given scenarios. The results showed that if urban energy consumption system was optimized or adjusted by exercising energy saving and emission reduction and pollution control measures, the predicted energy uses will be reduced by 10 to 30 million tons of coal equivalents by 2020. Under the two energy scenarios with moderate and high restrictions, the anticipated emissions of SO2, NOx, PM10, PM2.5, VOC and GHG will be respectively reduced to 71 to 100.2, 159.2 to 218.7, 89.8 to 133.8, 51.4 to 96.0, 56.4 to 74.8 and 148 200 to 164 700 thousand tons. Correspondingly, when compared with the low-restriction scenario, the reducing rate will be 53% to 67% , 50% to 64% , 33% to 55% , 25% to 60% , 41% to 55% and 26% to 34% respectively. Furthermore, based on a study of synergistic emission reduction of the air pollutants and GHG, it was proposed that the adjustment and control of energy consumptions shall be intensively developed in the three sectors of industry, transportation and services. In this way the synergistic reduction of the emissions of chief air pollutants and GHG will be achieved; meanwhile the pressures of energy demands may be deliberately relieved.

  1. Energy policy on shaky ground? A study of CCS-scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Bryngelsson, Mårten; Hansson, Anders

    2009-01-01

    Scenarios play an important role for the societal acceptance of CCS. This paper looks into influential reports containing CCS scenarios and analyses results, key assumptions and drivers for CCS' deployment. Significant uncertainties regarding CCS' development were in several cases excluded or marginalized. Despite these shortcomings, scenarios support a massive deployment of CCS and reflect an undivided optimism. If CCS would fail to meet the high expectations a backlash could follow. Indicat...

  2. Three-Phase Short-Circuit Current Calculation of Power Systems with High Penetration of VSC-Based Renewable Energy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Niancheng Zhou

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Short-circuit current level of power grid will be increased with high penetration of VSC-based renewable energy, and a strong coupling between transient fault process and control strategy will change the fault features. The full current expression of VSC-based renewable energy was obtained according to transient characteristics of short-circuit current. Furtherly, by analyzing the closed-loop transfer function model of controller and current source characteristics presented in steady state during a fault, equivalent circuits of VSC-based renewable energy of fault transient state and steady state were proposed, respectively. Then the correctness of the theory was verified by experimental tests. In addition, for power grid with VSC-based renewable energy, superposition theorem was used to calculate AC component and DC component of short-circuit current, respectively, then the peak value of short-circuit current was evaluated effectively. The calculated results could be used for grid planning and design, short-circuit current management as well as adjustment of relay protection. Based on comparing calculation and simulation results of 6-node 500 kV Huainan power grid and 35-node 220 kV Huaisu power grid, the effectiveness of the proposed method was verified.

  3. Implementation and Assessment of a Decentralized Load Frequency Control: Application to Power Systems with High Wind Energy Penetration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irene Muñoz-Benavente

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes and assesses a decentralized solution based on a wireless sensor-actuator network to provide primary frequency control from demand response in power systems with high wind energy penetration and, subsequently, with relevant frequency excursions. The proposed system is able to modify the electrical power demand of a variety of thermostatically-controlled loads, maintaining minimum comfort levels and minimizing both infrastructure requirements and primary reserves from the supply side. This low-cost hardware solution avoids any additional wiring, extending the wireless sensor-actuator network technology towards small customers, which account for over a 30% share of the current power demand. Frequency excursions are collected by each individual load controller, considering not only the magnitude of the frequency deviation, but also their evolution over time. Based on these time-frequency excursion characteristics, controllers are capable of modifying the power consumption of thermostatically-controlled loads by switching them off and on, thus contributing to primary frequency control in power systems with higher generation unit oscillations as a consequence of relevant wind power integration. Field tests have been carried out in a laboratory environment to assess the load controller performance, as well as to evaluate the electrical and thermal response of individual loads under frequency deviations. These frequency deviations are estimated from power systems with a high penetration of wind energy, which are more sensitive to frequency oscillations and where demand response can significantly contribute to mitigate these frequency excursions. The results, also included in the paper, evaluate the suitability of the proposed load controllers and their suitability to decrease frequency excursions from the demand side in a decentralized manner.

  4. Cost and CO2 aspects of future vehicle options in Europe under new energy policy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thiel, Christian; Perujo, Adolfo; Mercier, Arnaud

    2010-01-01

    New electrified vehicle concepts are about to enter the market in Europe. The expected gains in environmental performance for these new vehicle types are associated with higher technology costs. In parallel, the fuel efficiency of internal combustion engine vehicles and hybrids is continuously improved, which in turn advances their environmental performance but also leads to additional technology costs versus today's vehicles. The present study compares the well-to-wheel CO 2 emissions, costs and CO 2 abatement costs of generic European cars, including a gasoline vehicle, diesel vehicle, gasoline hybrid, diesel hybrid, plug in hybrid and battery electric vehicle. The predictive comparison is done for the snapshots 2010, 2020 and 2030 under a new energy policy scenario for Europe. The results of the study show clearly that the electrification of vehicles offer significant possibilities to reduce specific CO 2 emissions in road transport, when supported by adequate policies to decarbonise the electricity generation. Additional technology costs for electrified vehicle types are an issue in the beginning, but can go down to enable payback periods of less than 5 years and very competitive CO 2 abatement costs, provided that market barriers can be overcome through targeted policy support that mainly addresses their initial cost penalty. (author)

  5. Development of climate change scenarios to evaluate the impacts of temperature change on the energy demand in south of Quebec

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chamount, D.

    2008-01-01

    'Full text': In year 2000, Hydro-Quebec Distribution began to integrate temperature change in the planning of Quebec energy demand. With the evolution of knowledge in climate change science and the availability of larger ensemble of climate projections from GCMs (Global Climate Model), the methodology has progressively improved and uncertainties are now more efficiently taken into account. Inclusion of temperature evolution in the estimation of energy demand covers two issues : 1) the adjustment of climate normals as reference values and 2) integration of the climate change scenario in long term planning (horizon 2040). Recently, the analysis of an ensemble of climate simulations produced from 17 different GCMs forced by 3 emissions scenarios for a total of 39 projections, enabled these two aspects to be effectively addressed. Following the analysis the use of linear temperature increase on a monthly basis is recommended for the needs of addressing climate change impacts on energy demand. Higher slope values are obtained during winter while lower ones are present in summer. Heating and cooling degree days have then been calculated for an optimistic, median and pessimistic climate change scenario to evaluate economic impacts of temperature change on three energy sources: hydro-power, natural gas and heating oil. The evaluation was carried out taking into account not only the temperature change scenario but demographical and economical scenarios as well. Obviously, temperature increase will cause opposite effects for the winter and summer seasons (reducing energy demand for heating purpose during winter while increasing cooling demand during summer). However, comparing energy sources, combustibles might see a more important decrease than hydro-power. Overall, the net effect of temperature change on energy demand is quite small: a reduction of 2 to 3% is projected. (author)

  6. International and domestic uses of solid biofuels under different renewable energy support scenarios in the European Union

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoefnagels, Ric; Resch, Gustav; Junginger, Martin; Faaij, André

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A GIS based intermodal biomass transport model was developed for the European Union. • It was linked to the renewable energy model Green-X updated with biomass trade. • Scenarios of renewable energy deployment in the EU27 to 2020 were assessed. • Domestic biomass resources will remain the largest source of bioenergy (over 90%). • But increasing amounts of solid biomass will be traded (up to 506 PJ in 2020). - Abstract: This article describes the development of a geographic information systems (GIS) based biomass transport analysis tool BIT-UU used in combination with the European renewable energy model Green-X. BIT-UU calculates cost and GHG emissions from lowest cost routes, using intermodal transport (by road, rail, inland waterways and sea) between origins of supply and demand destinations. With the developed biomass trade module in Green-X, the role of bioenergy can be evaluated in the larger context of renewable energy deployment. The modeling framework takes into account the current and future energy policies at EU and country levels, competition with alternative sources of renewable energy (e.g. photovoltaic, wind) and sectors (electricity, heat, transport fuels) as well as competition between EU member states for the same biomass resources. Scenario projections to 2020 are used to demonstrate the developed modeling framework. According to these scenarios, biomass from domestic supply remains the most important source of bioenergy (91–93% in 2020). However, the role of traded solid biomass will become increasingly important. With a business as usual scenario, assuming continuation of current renewable energy policies to 2020, the binding renewable energy targets will not be achieved, but trade of solid biomass will still increase up to 451 PJ in 2020. In the scenario that meets the conditions to achieve the 20% renewable energy target in 2020, traded solid biomass is projected to increase to 440 PJ if sustainability criteria are

  7. Top-down workforce demand extrapolation based on an EC energy road-map scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roelofs, F.; Von Estorff, U.

    2014-01-01

    The EHRO-N team of JRC-IET provides the EC with essential data related to supply and demand for nuclear experts based on bottom-up information from the nuclear industry. The current paper deals with an alternative approach to derive figures for the demand side information of the nuclear workforce. Complementary to the bottom-up approach, a top-down modelling approach extrapolation of an EC Energy road-map nuclear energy demand scenario is followed here in addition to the survey information. In this top-down modelling approach, the number of nuclear power plants that are in operation and under construction is derived as a function of time from 2010 up to 2050 assuming that the current reactor park will be replaced by generic third generation reactors of 1400 MWe or 1000 MWe. Depending on the size of new build reactors, the analysis shows the number of new reactors required to fulfil the demand for nuclear energy. Based on workforce models for operation and construction of nuclear power plants, the model allows an extrapolation of these respective work-forces. Using the nuclear skills pyramid, the total workforce employed at a plant is broken down in a nuclear (experts), nuclearized, and nuclear aware workforce. With retirement profiles for nuclear power plants derived from the bottom-up EHRO-N survey, the replacement of the current workforce is taken into account. The peak of the new workforce (partly replacing the retiring workforce and additionally keeping up with the growing total workforce demand) for nuclear experts and nuclearized employees is to be expected at the end of the considered period (2050). However, the peak workforce for nuclear aware employees is to be expected around 2020. When comparing to historical data for the nuclear capacity being installed at the same time in Europe, it is clear that the expected future capacity to be installed at the same time in Europe is significantly lower (factor of 2) than in the early 1980's. However, it should

  8. Analysis of market penetration of renewable energy alternatives under uncertain and carbon constrained world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Future energy prices and supply, availability and costs can have a significant impact on how fast and cost effectively we could abate carbon emissions. Two-staged decision making methods embedded in U.S. EPA's MARKAL modeling system will be utilized to find the most robust mitig...

  9. Overview of the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST); NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Melaina, Marc; Bush, Brian; Penev, Michael

    2015-05-12

    This presentation provides an introduction to the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST) and includes an overview of each of the three versions of H2FAST: the Web tool, the Excel spreadsheet version, and the beta version of the H2FAST Business Case Scenario tool.

  10. Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST); NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Melaina, Marc

    2015-04-21

    This presentation describes the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool, H2FAST, and provides an overview of each of the three H2FAST formats: the H2FAST web tool, the H2FAST Excel spreadsheet, and the H2FAST Business Case Scenario (BCS) tool. Examples are presented to illustrate the types of questions that H2FAST can help answer.

  11. Short-term impacts of air pollutants in Switzerland: Preliminary scenario calculations for selected Swiss energy systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andreani-Aksoyoglu, S; Keller, J [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

    1999-08-01

    In the frame of the comprehensive assessment of Swiss energy systems, air quality simulations were performed by using a 3-dimensional photo-chemical dispersion model. The objective is to investigate the impacts of pollutants in Switzerland for future options of Swiss energy systems. Four scenarios were investigated: Base Case: simulations with the projected emissions for the year 2030, Scenario 1) all nuclear power plants were replaced by oil-driven combined cycle plants (CCP), Scenarios 2 to 4) traffic emissions were reduced in whole Switzerland as well as in the cities and on the highways separately. Changes in the pollutant concentrations and depositions, and the possible short-term impacts are discussed on the basis of exceedences of critical levels for plants and limits given to protect the public health. (author) 2 figs., 7 refs.

  12. Nuclear energy and fuel mix. Impacts of new nuclear power plants after 2020 in the nuclear energy scenarios of the Energy Report 2008

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seebregts, A.J.; Snoep, H.J.M.; Van Deurzen, J.; Lako, P.; Poley, A.D.

    2010-03-01

    This report presents facts and figures on new nuclear energy in the Netherlands, in the period after 2020. The information is meant to support a stakeholder discussion process on the role of new nuclear power in the transition to a sustainable energy supply for the Netherlands. The report covers a number of issues relevant to the subject. Facts and figures on the following issues are presented: Nuclear power and the power market (including impact of nuclear power on electricity market prices); Economic aspects (including costs of nuclear power and external costs and benefits, impact on end user electricity prices); The role of nuclear power with respect to security of supply; Sustainability aspects, including environmental aspects; The impact of nuclear power in three 'nuclear energy scenarios' for the Netherlands, within the context of a Northwest European energy market. The scenarios are: (1a) No new nuclear power in the Netherlands ('Base case'); (1b) After closure of the existing Borssele nuclear power plant by the end of 2033, the construction of new nuclear power plant that will operate in 2040. That plant is assumed to be designed not to have a serious core melt down accident (e.g. PBMR) (200 to 500 MWe); (2) New nuclear power shortly after closure the Borssele nuclear power plant in 2033 (1000 to 1600 MWe, 3rd Generation); (3) New nuclear power plants shortly after 2020 (2000 to 5000 MWe, 3rd Generation). Two electricity demand scenario background scenario variants have been constructed based on an average GDP growth of about 2% per year up to 2040. The first variant is based on a steadily growing electricity demand and on currently established NL and EU policies and instruments. It is expected to be largely consistent with a new and forthcoming reference projection 'Energy and Emissions 2010-2020' for the Netherlands (published by ECN and PBL in 2010). A lower demand variant is based on additional energy savings and on higher shares of renewable

  13. Energy-Efficient Transmissions for Remote Wireless Sensor Networks: An Integrated HAP/Satellite Architecture for Emergency Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Feihong; Li, Hongjun; Gong, Xiangwu; Liu, Quan; Wang, Jingchao

    2015-01-01

    A typical application scenario of remote wireless sensor networks (WSNs) is identified as an emergency scenario. One of the greatest design challenges for communications in emergency scenarios is energy-efficient transmission, due to scarce electrical energy in large-scale natural and man-made disasters. Integrated high altitude platform (HAP)/satellite networks are expected to optimally meet emergency communication requirements. In this paper, a novel integrated HAP/satellite (IHS) architecture is proposed, and three segments of the architecture are investigated in detail. The concept of link-state advertisement (LSA) is designed in a slow flat Rician fading channel. The LSA is received and processed by the terminal to estimate the link state information, which can significantly reduce the energy consumption at the terminal end. Furthermore, the transmission power requirements of the HAPs and terminals are derived using the gradient descent and differential equation methods. The energy consumption is modeled at both the source and system level. An innovative and adaptive algorithm is given for the energy-efficient path selection. The simulation results validate the effectiveness of the proposed adaptive algorithm. It is shown that the proposed adaptive algorithm can significantly improve energy efficiency when combined with the LSA and the energy consumption estimation. PMID:26404292

  14. Energy-Efficient Transmissions for Remote Wireless Sensor Networks: An Integrated HAP/Satellite Architecture for Emergency Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feihong Dong

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available A typical application scenario of remote wireless sensor networks (WSNs is identified as an emergency scenario. One of the greatest design challenges for communications in emergency scenarios is energy-efficient transmission, due to scarce electrical energy in large-scale natural and man-made disasters. Integrated high altitude platform (HAP/satellite networks are expected to optimally meet emergency communication requirements. In this paper, a novel integrated HAP/satellite (IHS architecture is proposed, and three segments of the architecture are investigated in detail. The concept of link-state advertisement (LSA is designed in a slow flat Rician fading channel. The LSA is received and processed by the terminal to estimate the link state information, which can significantly reduce the energy consumption at the terminal end. Furthermore, the transmission power requirements of the HAPs and terminals are derived using the gradient descent and differential equation methods. The energy consumption is modeled at both the source and system level. An innovative and adaptive algorithm is given for the energy-efficient path selection. The simulation results validate the effectiveness of the proposed adaptive algorithm. It is shown that the proposed adaptive algorithm can significantly improve energy efficiency when combined with the LSA and the energy consumption estimation.

  15. Energy-Efficient Transmissions for Remote Wireless Sensor Networks: An Integrated HAP/Satellite Architecture for Emergency Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Feihong; Li, Hongjun; Gong, Xiangwu; Liu, Quan; Wang, Jingchao

    2015-09-03

    A typical application scenario of remote wireless sensor networks (WSNs) is identified as an emergency scenario. One of the greatest design challenges for communications in emergency scenarios is energy-efficient transmission, due to scarce electrical energy in large-scale natural and man-made disasters. Integrated high altitude platform (HAP)/satellite networks are expected to optimally meet emergency communication requirements. In this paper, a novel integrated HAP/satellite (IHS) architecture is proposed, and three segments of the architecture are investigated in detail. The concept of link-state advertisement (LSA) is designed in a slow flat Rician fading channel. The LSA is received and processed by the terminal to estimate the link state information, which can significantly reduce the energy consumption at the terminal end. Furthermore, the transmission power requirements of the HAPs and terminals are derived using the gradient descent and differential equation methods. The energy consumption is modeled at both the source and system level. An innovative and adaptive algorithm is given for the energy-efficient path selection. The simulation results validate the effectiveness of the proposed adaptive algorithm. It is shown that the proposed adaptive algorithm can significantly improve energy efficiency when combined with the LSA and the energy consumption estimation.

  16. Synthetic fuels development in Kentucky: Four scenarios for an energy future as constructed from lessons of the past

    Science.gov (United States)

    Musulin, Mike, II

    The continued failure of synthetic fuels development in the United States to achieve commercialization has been documented through the sporadic periods of mounting corporate and government enthusiasm and high levels of research and development efforts. Four periods of enthusiasm at the national level were followed by waning intervals of shrinking financial support and sagging R&D work. The continuing cycle of mobilization and stagnation has had a corresponding history in Kentucky. To better understand the potential and the pitfalls of this type of technological development the history of synthetic fuels development in the United States is presented as background, with a more detailed analysis of synfuels development in Kentucky. The first two periods of interest in synthetic fuels immediately after the Second World War and in the 1950s did not result in any proposed plants for Kentucky, but the third and fourth periods of interest created a great deal of activity. A theoretically grounded case study is utilized in this research project to create four different scenarios for the future of synthetic fuels development. The Kentucky experience is utilized in this case study because a fifth incarnation of synthetic fuels development has been proposed for the state in the form of an integrated gasification combined cycle power plant (IGCC) to utilize coal and refuse derived fuel (RDF). The project has been awarded a grant from the U.S. Department of Energy Clean Coal Technology program. From an examination and analysis of these periods of interest and the subsequent dwindling of interest and participation, four alternative scenarios are constructed. A synfuels breakthrough scenario is described whereby IGCC becomes a viable part of the country's energy future. A multiplex scenario describes how IGCC becomes a particular niche in energy production. The status quo scenario describes how the old patterns of project failure repeat themselves. The fourth scenario describes

  17. Penetration of the Earth by Ultrahigh Energy Neutrinos Predicted by Low x QCD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kwiecinski, J.; Stasto, A.; Martin, A.D.

    1999-01-01

    Full text: We calculate the cross sections for neutrino interactions with (isoscalar) nuclear targets in the energy domain all the way up to 10 12 GeV. Small x QCD effects are included by using a unified BFKL/DGLAP formalism which embodies non-leading ln(1/x) contributions. The few free parameters which specify the input parton distributions are determined by fitting to HERA deep inelastic data. The attenuation of neutrinos transversing the Earth at different nadir angles is calculated for a variety of energy spectra for neutrinos originating from different sources (from Active Galactic Nuclei, Gamma ray bursts, top-down models), as well as for atmospheric neutrinos. For this purpose we solve the transport equation which includes regeneration due to neutral current neutrino interactions besides attenuation. (author)

  18. Transactive control: a framework for operating power systems characterized by high penetration of distributed energy resources

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hu, Junjie; Yang, Guangya; Kok, Koen

    2016-01-01

    The increasing number of distributed energy resources connected to power systems raises operational challenges for the network operator, such as introducing grid congestion and voltage deviations in the distribution network level, as well as increasing balancing needs at the whole system level......, followed by a literature review and demonstration projects that apply to transactive control. Cases are then presented to illustrate the transactive control framework. At the end, discussions and research directions are presented, for applying transactive control to operating power systems, characterized...

  19. Perspectives of energy efficient technologies penetration in the Greek domestic sector, through the analysis of Energy Performance Certificates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gelegenis, J.; Diakoulaki, D.; Lampropoulou, H.; Giannakidis, G.; Samarakou, M.; Plytas, N.

    2014-01-01

    The building sector in Greece presents a huge energy saving potential, the largest part of which is remaining unexploited. The recently enacted legislation for the energy performance of buildings, in combination with the financial support provided by funding programmes to low income families is expected to significantly boost the deployment of energy efficient technologies in the Greek domestic sector. The exploitation of these legal and financial instruments follows a formalised process of energy audits, resulting in buildings classification and in the submission of Energy Performance Certificates (EPCs) including suggestions to improve the dwellings' energy performance. The paper aims at an ex-ante evaluation of the market trends revealed by EPCs in Greece, in order to identify the perspectives of individual technologies and to assess the degree to which the certification procedure helps in improving the energy performance of buildings. The results indicate a strong trend towards less cost-effective technologies, revealing a sub-optimal allocation of financial resources and putting into risk the path towards the achievement of EU targets for 2020. - Highlights: • Energy Performance Certificates reveal market trends of energy efficient technologies. • SWH, replacement of windows and walls/roof insulation are most often recommended. • Other measures are controls, switch to NG; low cost measures are rarely recommended. • Cost-effectiveness is not the main factor explaining technology recommendations. • Amendment of EPC document and inspection process may enhance its effectiveness

  20. Hydroelectric power generation in an Alpine basin: future water-energy scenarios in a run-of-the-river plant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bongio, Marco; Avanzi, Francesco; De Michele, Carlo

    2016-08-01

    We investigate scenarios of hydroelectric power generation for an Alpine run-of-the-river plant in 2050. To this end, we include a conversion from streamflow to energy in a hydrological model of the basin, and we introduce a set of benchmark climate scenarios to evaluate expected future production. These are a "future-like-present" scenario assuming future precipitation and temperature inputs to be statistically equivalent to those observed during the recent past at the same location, a "warmer-future" scenario, which considers an additional increase in temperature, and a "liquid-only" scenario where only liquid precipitation is admitted. In addition, two IPCC-like climatic scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) are considered. Uncertainty in glaciers' volume is accounted by initializing the hydrological model with two different inventories of glaciers. Ensemble results reveal that 1) an average decrease between -40% and -19% of hydroelectric power generation in 2050 is predicted at the plant considered (with respect to present condition); 2) an average decrease between -20% and -38% of cumulative incoming streamflow volume at the plant is also predicted, again with respect to present condition; 3) these effects are associated with a strong average decrease of the volume of glaciers (between -76% and -96%, depending on the initial value considered). However, Monte Carlo simulations show that results are also prone to high uncertainties. Implications of these results for run-of-the-river plants are discussed.

  1. Optimized Hybrid Renewable Energy System of Isolated Islands in Smart-Grid Scenario - A Case Study in Indian Context

    OpenAIRE

    Aurobi Das; V. Balakrishnan

    2012-01-01

    This paper focuses on the integration of hybrid renewable energy resources available in remote isolated islands of Sundarban-24 Parganas-South of Eastern part of India to National Grid of conventional power supply to give a Smart-Grid scenario. Before grid-integration, feasibility of optimization of hybrid renewable energy system is monitored through an Intelligent Controller proposed to be installed at Moushuni Island of Sundarban. The objective is to ensure the reliability and efficiency of...

  2. Energy and emission scenarios for China in the 21st century - exploration of baseline development and mitigation options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vuuren, Detlef van; Zhou Fengqi; Vries, Bert de; Jiang Kejun; Graveland, Cor; Li Yun

    2003-01-01

    In this paper, we have used the simulation model IMAGE/TIMER to develop a set of energy and emission scenarios for China between 1995 and 2100, based on the global baseline scenarios published by IPCC. The purpose of the study was to explore possible baseline developments and available options to mitigate emissions. The two main baseline scenarios of the study differ, among others, in the openness of the Chinese economy and in economic growth, but both indicate a rapid growth in carbon emissions (2.0% and 2.6% per year in the 2000-2050 period). The baseline scenario analysis also shows that an orientation on environmental sustainability can not only reduce other environmental pressures but also lower carbon emissions. In the mitigation analysis, a large number of options has been evaluated in terms of impacts on investments, user costs, fuel imports costs and emissions. It is found that a large potential exists to mitigate carbon emissions in China, among others in the form of energy efficiency improvement (with large co-benefits) and measures in the electricity sector. Combining all options considered, it appears to be possible to reduce emissions compared to the baseline scenarios by 50%

  3. Use of scenarios in the planning of the energy sector; Uso de escenarios en la planeacion del sector energetico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sacristan Roy, Antonio [Asociacion Mexicana para la Economia Energetica (AMEE), (Mexico)

    2004-06-15

    A scenario is a logical and congruent narration on the future, which describes the future in terms of the consequences on the surroundings of tendency forces (descriptive scenario) or as a result of caused changes (normative scenario). Unlike an econometric projection, that fundamentally considers economic forces, a scenario takes into consideration the impact of political, technological, social and legal forces, in addition to the economic ones, and the uncertainty of the future can be covered using several different scenarios. The construction of scenarios constitutes an extremely useful tool for long term planning of and the design of governmental policies for the energy sector. In this work an investment to twenty-five years in the national energy sector, with a long term planning of using scenarios, the design of a policy of the possible savings and bases for the future technological development and investigation effort is estimated. [Spanish] Un escenario es una narracion logica y congruente sobre el futuro, la cual describe el futuro en terminos de las consecuencias sobre el entorno de fuerzas tendenciales (escenario descriptivo) o como resultado de cambios provocados (escenario normativo). A diferencia de una proyeccion econometrica, que fundamentalmente considera fuerzas economicos, un escenario toma en consideracion el impacto de fuerzas politicas, tecnologicas, sociales y juridicas, ademas de las economicas, la incertidumbre del futuro se puede cubrir utilizando varios escenarios distintos. La construccion de escenarios constituye una herramienta sumamente util para la planeacion de largo plazo y el diseno de politicas gubernamentales para el sector energetico. En este trabajo se estima una inversion a veinticinco anos en el sector energetico nacional, con una planeacion de largo plazo utilizando escenarios, el diseno de una politica los posibles ahorros y la base para el futuro desarrollo tecnologico y esfuerzo de investigacion.

  4. Technology interactions among low-carbon energy technologies: What can we learn from a large number of scenarios?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McJeon, Haewon C.; Clarke, Leon; Kyle, Page; Wise, Marshall; Hackbarth, Andrew; Bryant, Benjamin P.; Lempert, Robert J.

    2011-01-01

    Advanced low-carbon energy technologies can substantially reduce the cost of stabilizing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Understanding the interactions between these technologies and their impact on the costs of stabilization can help inform energy policy decisions. Many previous studies have addressed this challenge by exploring a small number of representative scenarios that represent particular combinations of future technology developments. This paper uses a combinatorial approach in which scenarios are created for all combinations of the technology development assumptions that underlie a smaller, representative set of scenarios. We estimate stabilization costs for 768 runs of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), based on 384 different combinations of assumptions about the future performance of technologies and two stabilization goals. Graphical depiction of the distribution of stabilization costs provides first-order insights about the full data set and individual technologies. We apply a formal scenario discovery method to obtain more nuanced insights about the combinations of technology assumptions most strongly associated with high-cost outcomes. Many of the fundamental insights from traditional representative scenario analysis still hold under this comprehensive combinatorial analysis. For example, the importance of carbon capture and storage (CCS) and the substitution effect among supply technologies are consistently demonstrated. The results also provide more clarity regarding insights not easily demonstrated through representative scenario analysis. For example, they show more clearly how certain supply technologies can provide a hedge against high stabilization costs, and that aggregate end-use efficiency improvements deliver relatively consistent stabilization cost reductions. Furthermore, the results indicate that a lack of CCS options combined with lower technological advances in the buildings sector or the transportation sector is

  5. Linear active disturbance rejection-based load frequency control concerning high penetration of wind energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang, Yanmei; Bai, Yan; Huang, Congzhi; Du, Bin

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A disturbance rejection solution to the load frequency control issue is proposed. • Several power systems with wind energy conversation system have been tested. • A tuning algorithm of the controller parameters was proposed. • The performance of the proposed approach is better than traditional controllers. - Abstract: A new grid load frequency control approach is proposed for the doubly fed induction generator based wind power plants. The load frequency control issue in a power system is undergoing fundamental changes due to the rapidly growing amount of wind energy conversation system, and concentrating on maintaining generation-load balance and disturbance rejection. The prominent feature of the linear active disturbance rejection control approach is that the total disturbance can be estimated and then eliminated in real time. And thus, it is a feasible solution to deal with the load frequency control issue. In this paper, the application of the linear active disturbance rejection control approach in the load frequency control issue for a complex power system with wind energy conversation system based on doubly fed induction generator is investigated. The load frequency control issue is formulated as a decentralized multi-objective optimization control problem, the solution to which is solved by the hybrid particle swarm optimization technique. To show the effectiveness of the proposed control scheme, the robust performance testing based on Monte-Carlo approach is carried out. The performance superiority of the system with the proposed linear active disturbance rejection control approach over that with the traditional proportional integral and fuzzy-proportional integral-based controllers is validated by the simulation results

  6. Recent trends and future opportunities in UK bioenergy: Maximising biomass penetration in a centralised energy system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perry, Miles; Rosillo-Calle, Frank

    2008-01-01

    In the past decade or so, the British government policy support for renewable energy (RE) has been at the core of the rapid growth of bioenergy in the UK rather than genuine market forces. Policy support has been through various instruments which are discussed in this paper, with particular attention given to co-firing and transport fuels. The UK energy sector remains dominated by large fossil fuels power plants and this does not facilitate the introduction of RE. One exception is co-firing which in 2005 generated 2.5 TWh. Another area of considerable potential and interest is the use of biofuels (biodiesel and bioethanol) for transport, although current contribution remains still very small (0.18% of total fuel sales in 2005). In 2005, the UK used 1.4 million tonnes of biomass in co-firing, mostly imported, while considerable potential exists for further expansion should policy incentives continue. It is also generally accepted that the UK will have to rely largely on imports if it is to fulfil its 5% minimum biofuel blends agreed for 2010 and 10% in 2015. Both sectors present excellent opportunities for international bioenergy trade, despite the domestic production potential, as demonstrated in this paper. In addition, the forthcoming introduction of carbon and sustainability reporting should incentivise greater reporting along the supply chain, encouraging trade in the most sustainable biofuels. (author)

  7. Assessments of long-term effects of CO2 and 14C: Various energy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matthies, M.; Paretzke, H.G.

    1982-01-01

    A non-linear model for the global carbon cycle has been developed and applied for prognostic assessment of concentrations of CO 2 from the combustion of fossil fuel and of radiocarbon released from facilities of the nuclear fuel cycle. The model is built up from two boxes for the atmosphere (stratosphere, troposphere), three boxes for the ocean (mixed surface layer, deep sea and sediments), and two boxes for the biosphere (short-and long-lived biota) with non-linear troposphere-biota and troposphere-ocean surface layer exchange rates and linear fluxes between the other reservoirs. Two different models are used for the man-made reduction of the biomass: (a) no deforestation function, and (b) slightly growing deforestation function. The three scenarios considered are: (I) annual energy growth rates of 2% and 4%, no nuclear power; (II) an upper, lower and medium estimate of replacement of fossil fuels by nuclear power. In addition, two assumptions concerning the decontamination of 14 C in the nuclear power plant effluents were made: one in which 14 C is released completely, and one with a decontamination factor of 4. Assuming logistic source functions for the increase of fossil-fuel combustion and an exponential growth of nuclear power until the year 2020, by around 2100 the CO 2 concentration of the troposphere will reach concentrations twice to five times as high as the pre-industrial level. Various environmental effects of this increasing CO 2 level are briefly discussed. The specific 14 C activity of the atmosphere is decreased. Up to the year 2200, the specific activity will be lower than the pre-industrial level. The individual lifetime dose commitments (70 years) are found between 0.85 and 0.45 mSv (pre-industrial value: 0.73 mSv)

  8. Electricity planning in Japan by 2030 through scenario analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishihara, Keiichi N.; Qi, Zhang; Mclellan, Benjamin C.; Tezuka, Tetsuo

    2013-01-01

    Under continuing policies of the mitigation of GHG (Green House Gases) emission, it is crucial to consider scenarios for Japan to realize a safe and clean future electricity system after the Fukushima nuclear accident. The development plans of nuclear power and renewable energy - mainly PV and wind power - need to be reconsidered. Therefore, in the present study, three electricity supply scenarios in 2030 are proposed according to different future nuclear power development strategies: (1) negative nuclear power; (2) conservative nuclear power; and (3) active pursuit of nuclear power. On the other side, three electricity demand scenarios are also proposed considering energy saving. The purpose of the study is to propose electricity supply systems with maximum renewable energy penetration under different nuclear power development strategies and demand situations through scenario analysis. The scenario analysis is conducted using an input-output hour-by-hour simulation model subject to constraints from technological, economic and environmental perspectives. The obtained installed capacity mix, power generation mix and CO 2 emissions of the scenarios were compared and analyzed with each other and with historical data. The results show that (1) penetration level of renewable energy is subject to the share of nuclear power as base load; (2) it is very difficult to remove nuclear power absolutely from the electricity system even when a high level of penetration of renewable energy is realized; (3) high level penetration of renewable energy can reduce the dependence on nuclear and thermal power, but there is a need for more flexible power sources to absorb fluctuations; (4) CO 2 emissions reduction compared to 1990 levels can be readily achieved with the help of renewable energy, nuclear power and energy saving in 2030. This is a revised version of the paper that was published in [1]. (author)

  9. Electric Vehicle Market Penetration and Impacts on Energy Consumption and CO2 Emission in the Future: Beijing Case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qian Zhang

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This study focuses on the development of electric vehicles (EV in the private passenger vehicle fleet in Beijing (China, analyzes how EVs will penetrate in the market, and estimates the resulting impacts on energy consumption and CO2 emissions up to 2030. A discrete choice model is adopted with consideration of variables including vehicle technical characteristics, fuel prices, charging conditions and support policies. Results show that by 2030, without technological breakthrough and support policies, the market share of EV will be less than 7%, with gasoline dominating the energy structure. With fast technological progress, charging facility establishment, subsidies and tax breaks, EVs will account for 70% of annual new vehicle sales and nearly half of the vehicle stock by 2030, resulting in the substitution of nearly 1 million tons of gasoline with 3.2 billion kWh electricity in 2030 and the reduction of 0.6 million tons of CO2 emission in 2030. Technological progress, charging conditions and fuel prices are the top three drivers. Subsidies play an important role in the early stage, while tax and supply-side policies can be good options as long-term incentives.

  10. A renewable energy scenario for Aalborg Municipality based on low-temperature geothermal heat, wind power and biomass

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østergaard, Poul Alberg; Mathiesen, Brian Vad; Möller, Bernd

    2010-01-01

    Aalborg Municipality, Denmark, wishes to investigate the possibilities of becoming independent of fossil fuels. This article describes a scenario for supplying Aalborg Municipality’s energy needs through a combination of low-temperature geothermal heat, wind power and biomass. Of particular focus...... in the scenario is how low-temperature geothermal heat may be utilised in district heating (DH) systems. The analyses show that it is possible to cover Aalborg Municipality’s energy needs through the use of locally available sources in combination with significant electricity savings, heat savings, reductions...... in industrial fuel use and savings and fuel-substitutions in the transport sector. With biomass resources being finite, the two marginal energy resources in Aalborg are geothermal heat and wind power. If geothermal heat is utilised more, wind power may be limited and vice versa. The system still relies...

  11. Electricity demand and supply scenarios for Maharashtra (India) for 2030: An application of long range energy alternatives planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kale, Rajesh V.; Pohekar, Sanjay D.

    2014-01-01

    Forecasting of electricity demand has assumed a lot of importance to provide sustainable solutions to the electricity problems. LEAP has been used to forecast electricity demand for the target year 2030, for the state of Maharashtra (India). Holt’s exponential smoothing method has been used to arrive at suitable growth rates. Probable projections have been generated using uniform gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate and different values of elasticity of demands. Three scenarios have been generated which include Business as Usual (BAU), Energy Conservation (EC) and Renewable Energy (REN). Subsequent analysis on the basis of energy, environmental influence and cost has been done. In the target year 2030, the projected electricity demand for BAU and REN has increased by 107.3 per cent over the base year 2012 and EC electricity demand has grown by 54.3 per cent. The estimated values of green house gas (GHG) for BAU and EC, in the year 2030, are 245.2 per cent and 152.4 per cent more than the base year and for REN it is 46.2 per cent less. Sensitivity analysis has been performed to study the effect on the total cost of scenarios. Policy implications in view of the results obtained are also discussed. - Highlights: • Forecasted electricity scenarios by Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP). • Critically analyzed the demand and supply prior to 2012 for a period of six years. • Used Holt’s exponential smoothing method ARIMA (0,1,1) for finding growth rates. • Devised suitable LEAP model for the generated scenarios. • Discussed policy implications for the generated scenarios

  12. Experience 2030. Four scenarios for the energy sector; Beleef 2030. 4 toekomstscenario's voor de energiewereld

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aarts, P.; Breunesse, L.; Duijm, K.; Van Empel, F.; Van Erp, J.; Van Huffelen, A.; Veenstra, J.; Visser, H.; Sicking, C.; Bloemendaal, R. (eds.)

    2003-07-01

    In four days several experts in the field of energy participated in a brainstorm session to discuss the future and the consequences for our energy supply and demand, energy sources and technology. In this book four scenarios are presented: (1) Voluntary Simplicity, characterized by austerity and solidarity; (2) Hyper Individualism, characterized by competitive activities for as much prosperity as possible; (3) Haves and Have-nots, based on geopolitical instability and a strong technological development, resulting even beyond a wider gap between rich and poor; and (4) Tribal Society, dominated by fear, distrust and less prosperity. [Dutch] In 4 dagen is hebben energie-experts deelgenomen aan een 'brainstorm' sessie om te discussieren over de toekomst en de gevolgen daarvan voor de energievoorziening, vraag naar energie, energiebronnen en energietechnologieen. In dit boek worden 4 scenario's gepresenteerd: (1) Vrijwillige Eenvoud, gekarakteriseerd door geopolitieke stabiliteit en een geremde technologische ontwikkeling waarin mensen kiezen voor soberheid en solidariteit; (2) Hyper Individualisme, waarin individuen met eigen bedrijfjes en veel technische mogelijkheden wedijveren om een zo groot mogelijk deel van de welvaart; (3) Haves en Have-nots, waarin geopolitieke instabiliteit en een sterke technologische ontwikkeling leiden tot een tweedeling in de samenleving die verder gaat dan alleen maar een kloof tussen arm en rijk; and (4) Tribal Society, een grimmig scenario, dat wordt gedomineerd door angst, wantrouwen en een slinkende welvaart, als gevolg van een lage technologische ontwikkeling en geopolitieke instabiliteit.

  13. The environmental and public health benefits of achieving high penetrations of solar energy in the United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wiser, Ryan; Millstein, Dev; Mai, Trieu; Macknick, Jordan; Carpenter, Alberta; Cohen, Stuart; Cole, Wesley; Frew, Bethany; Heath, Garvin

    2016-01-01

    We estimate the environmental and public health benefits that may be realized if solar energy cost reductions continue until solar power is competitive across the U.S. without subsidies. Specifically, we model, from 2015 to 2050, solar power–induced reductions to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, air pollutant emissions, and water usage. To find the incremental benefits of new solar deployment, we compare the difference between two scenarios, one where solar costs have fallen such that solar supplies 14% of the nation's electricity by 2030 and 27% by 2050, and a baseline scenario in which no solar is added after 2014. We monetize benefits, where credible methods exist to do so. We find that under these scenarios, solar power reduces GHG and air pollutants by ∼10%, from 2015 to 2050, providing a discounted present value of $56–$789 billion (central value of ∼$250 billion, equivalent to ∼2 ¢/kWh-solar) in climate benefits and $77–$298 billion (central value of $167 billion, or ∼1.4 ¢/kWh-solar) in air quality and public health benefits. The ranges reflect uncertainty within the literature about the marginal impact of emissions of GHG and air pollutants. Solar power is also found to reduce water withdrawals and consumption by 4% and 9%, respectively, including in many drought-prone states. - Highlights: • With feasible cost reductions, solar power can provide major environmental benefits. • U.S. electric-sector modeling indicates climate benefits worth ∼2 ¢/kWh-solar. • Further modeling indicates air quality public health benefits worth 1.4 ¢/kWh-solar. • Solar could reduce power-sector water withdrawals and consumption by 4% and 9%.

  14. Energy efficient cultivation planning for pot plants. A calculation platform for energy efficient scenarios in the Poinsettia cultivation; Energiezuinige Teeltplanning voor Potplanten. Een rekenplatform voor energie-efficiente scenario's in de Poinsettiateelt

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buwalda, F.; Van Noort, F. [Wageningen UR Glastuinbouw, Wageningen (Netherlands); Houter, B. [GreenQ, Bleiswijk (Netherlands); Benninga, J. [Landbouw-Economisch Instituut LEI, Wageningen (Netherlands); De Rooij, E. [DLV Plant, Wageningen (Netherlands)

    2012-06-15

    The project Energy Efficient Scheduling of Pot Plant Production was aimed at developing and testing a decision support system for pot plant nurseries. The system allowed growers and consultants to compare the effects of changes in production schedules and climate settings on crop performance and energy requirement. The model-based scenario tool incorporated dynamic crop models for Euphorbia pulcherrima, Ficus benjamina and Hydrangea macrophylla, and the KASPRO model for greenhouse climate and energy balance. The system automatically acquired data from a local weather forecast service, real-time, web-based nursery-specific data acquisition systems and crop registration modules. Web-based data sharing also supported benchmarking between nurseries. The system was tested in field trials, involving four nurseries for each pot plant species. Improvements in energy efficiency of the production process resulted from optimized pot spacing schedules and from temperature strategies incorporating more prominent influences of the season, weather conditions and crop developmental phase [Dutch] In het kader van het project Energiezuinige Teeltplanning voor Potplanten is gewerkt aan een adviessysteem dat potplantentelers in staat stelt om zelfstandig de energie-efficientie van teeltscenario's te evalueren op basis van actuele, bedrijfsspecifieke gegevens. Daarnaast maakt het systeem het mogelijk om via internet teeltscenario's te delen met teeltadviseurs en binnen bedrijfsvergelijkingsgroepen. Het systeem is gebaseerd op dynamische gewasmodellen voor Hortensia, Poinsettia en Ficus, en maakt voor het berekenen van kasklimaat en energiestromen gebruik van het rekenmodel KASPRO. Dit rapport beschrijft de werking van het systeem, de resultaten op 4 bedrijven per gewas, de reacties van de betrokken telers, en een evaluatie van het project. De belangrijkste mogelijkheden om de energie-efficientie van een teelt te verbeteren werden gevonden in verbeterde wijderzetschema

  15. Energy efficient cultivation planning for pot plants. A calculation platform for energy efficient scenarios in the Hortensia cultivation; Energiezuinige Teeltplanning voor Potplanten. Een rekenplatform voor energie-efficiente scenario's in de Hortensia-teelt

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buwalda, F.; Van Noort, F. [Wageningen UR Glastuinbouw, Wageningen (Netherlands); Houter, B. [GreenQ, Bleiswijk (Netherlands); Benninga, J. [Landbouw-Economisch Instituut LEI, Wageningen (Netherlands); Dijkstra, T.; De Rooij, E. [DLV Plant, Wageningen (Netherlands)

    2012-05-15

    The project Energy Efficient Scheduling of Pot Plant Production was aimed at developing and testing a decision support system for pot plant nurseries. The system allowed growers and consultants to compare the effects of changes in production schedules and climate settings on crop performance and energy requirement. The model-based scenario tool incorporated dynamic crop models for Euphorbia pulcherrima, Ficus benjamina and Hydrangea macrophylla, and the KASPRO model for greenhouse climate and energy balance. The system automatically acquired data from a local weather forecast service, real-time, web-based nursery-specific data acquisition systems and crop registration modules. Web-based data sharing also supported benchmarking between nurseries. The system was tested in field trials, involving four nurseries for each pot plant species. Improvements in energy efficiency of the production process resulted from optimized pot spacing schedules and from temperature strategies incorporating more prominent influences of the season, weather conditions and crop developmental phase [Dutch] In het kader van het project Energiezuinige Teeltplanning voor Potplanten is gewerkt aan een adviessysteem dat potplantentelers in staat stelt om zelfstandig de energie-efficientie van teeltscenario's te evalueren op basis van actuele, bedrijfsspecifieke gegevens. Daarnaast maakt het systeem het mogelijk om via internet teeltscenario's te delen met teeltadviseurs en binnen bedrijfsvergelijkingsgroepen. Het systeem is gebaseerd op dynamische gewasmodellen voor Hortensia, Poinsettia en Ficus, en maakt voor het berekenen van kasklimaat en energiestromen gebruik van het rekenmodel KASPRO. Dit rapport beschrijft de werking van het systeem, de resultaten op 4 bedrijven per gewas, de reacties van de betrokken telers, en een evaluatie van het project. De belangrijkste mogelijkheden om de energie-efficientie van een teelt te verbeteren werden gevonden in verbeterde wijderzetschema

  16. Energy efficient cultivation planning for pot plants. A calculation platform for energy efficient scenarios in the Ficus cultivation; Energiezuinige Teeltplanning voor Potplanten. Een rekenplatform voor energie-efficiente scenario's in de Ficus-teelt

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buwalda, F.; Van Noort, F. [Wageningen UR Glastuinbouw, Wageningen (Netherlands); De Jong, B.

    2012-06-15

    The project Energy Efficient Scheduling of Pot Plant Production was aimed at developing and testing a decision support system for pot plant nurseries. The system allowed growers and consultants to compare the effects of changes in production schedules and climate settings on crop performance and energy requirement. The model-based scenario tool incorporated dynamic crop models for Euphorbia pulcherrima, Ficus benjamina and Hydrangea macrophylla, and the KASPRO model for greenhouse climate and energy balance. The system automatically acquired data from a local weather forecast service, real-time, web-