WorldWideScience

Sample records for energy demand modelling

  1. Modelling energy demand of Croatian industry sector

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Medić, Zlatko Bačelić; Pukšec, Tomislav; Mathiesen, Brian Vad

    2014-01-01

    Industry represents one of the most interesting sectors when analysing Croatian final energy demand. Croatian industry represents 20% of nation's GDP and employs 25% of total labour force making it a significant subject for the economy. Today, with around 60 PJ of final energy demand...... it is the third most energy intensive sector in Croatia after transport and households. Implementing mechanisms that would lead to improvements in energy efficiency in this sector seems relevant. Through this paper, long-term energy demand projections for Croatian industry will be shown. The central point...... for development of the model will be parameters influencing the industry in Croatia. Energy demand predictions in this paper are based upon bottom-up approach model. IED model produces results which can be compared to Croatian National Energy Strategy. One of the conclusions shown in this paper is significant...

  2. Economic modelling of energy services: Rectifying misspecified energy demand functions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunt, Lester C.; Ryan, David L.

    2015-01-01

    Although it is well known that energy demand is derived, since energy is required not for its own sake but for the energy services it produces – such as heating, lighting, and motive power – energy demand models, both theoretical and empirical, often fail to take account of this feature. In this paper, we highlight the misspecification that results from ignoring this aspect, and its empirical implications – biased estimates of price elasticities and other measures – and provide a relatively simple and empirically practicable way to rectify it, which has a strong theoretical grounding. To do so, we develop an explicit model of consumer behaviour in which utility derives from consumption of energy services rather than from the energy sources that are used to produce them. As we discuss, this approach opens up the possibility of examining many aspects of energy demand in a theoretically sound way that have not previously been considered on a widespread basis, although some existing empirical work could be interpreted as being consistent with this type of specification. While this formulation yields demand equations for energy services rather than for energy or particular energy sources, these are shown to be readily converted, without added complexity, into the standard type of energy demand equation(s) that is (are) typically estimated. The additional terms that the resulting energy demand equations include, compared to those that are typically estimated, highlight the misspecification that is implicit when typical energy demand equations are estimated. A simple solution for dealing with an apparent drawback of this formulation for empirical purposes, namely that information is required on typically unobserved energy efficiency, indicates how energy efficiency can be captured in the model, such as by including exogenous trends and/or including its possible dependence on past energy prices. The approach is illustrated using an empirical example that involves

  3. Modelling UK energy demand to 2000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, S.D.

    1980-01-01

    A recent long-term demand forecast for the UK was made by Cheshire and Surrey. (SPRU Occasional Paper Series No.5, Science Policy Research Unit, Univ. Of Sussex, 1978.) Although they adopted a sectoral approach their study leaves some questions unanswered. Do they succeed in their aim of making all their assumptions fully explicit. How sensitive are their estimates to changes in assumptions and policies. Are important problems and 'turning points' fully identified in the period up to and immediately beyond their time horizon of 2000. The author addresses these questions by using a computer model based on the study by Cheshire and Surrey. This article is a shortened version of the report, S.D. Thomas, 'Modelling UK Energy Demand to 2000', Operational Research, Univ. of Sussex, Brighton, UK, 1979, in which full details of the author's model are given. Copies are available from the author. (author)

  4. Modelling UK energy demand to 2000

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomas, S D [Sussex Univ., Brighton (UK)

    1980-03-01

    A recent long-term demand forecast for the UK was made by Cheshire and Surrey. (SPRU Occasional Paper Series No.5, Science Policy Research Unit, Univ. Of Sussex, 1978.) Although they adopted a sectoral approach their study leaves some questions unanswered. Do they succeed in their aim of making all their assumptions fully explicit. How sensitive are their estimates to changes in assumptions and policies. Are important problems and 'turning points' fully identified in the period up to and immediately beyond their time horizon of 2000. The author addresses these questions by using a computer model based on the study by Cheshire and Surrey. This article is a shortened version of the report, S.D. Thomas, 'Modelling UK Energy Demand to 2000', Operational Research, Univ. of Sussex, Brighton, UK, 1979, in which full details of the author's model are given. Copies are available from the author.

  5. Dynamic energy-demand models. A comparison

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yi, Feng

    2000-01-01

    This paper compares two second-generation dynamic energy demand models, a translog (TL) and a general Leontief (GL), in the study of price elasticities and factor substitutions of nine Swedish manufacturing industries: food, textiles, wood, paper, printing, chemicals, non-metallic minerals, base metals and machinery. Several model specifications are tested with likelihood ratio test. There is a disagreement on short-run adjustments; the TL model accepts putty-putty production technology of immediate adjustments, implying equal short- and long-run price elasticities of factors, while the GL model rejects immediate adjustments, giving out short-run elasticities quite different from the long-run. The two models also disagree in substitutability in many cases. 21 refs

  6. Energy demand in Portuguese manufacturing: a two-stage model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borges, A.M.; Pereira, A.M.

    1992-01-01

    We use a two-stage model of factor demand to estimate the parameters determining energy demand in Portuguese manufacturing. In the first stage, a capital-labor-energy-materials framework is used to analyze the substitutability between energy as a whole and other factors of production. In the second stage, total energy demand is decomposed into oil, coal and electricity demands. The two stages are fully integrated since the energy composite used in the first stage and its price are obtained from the second stage energy sub-model. The estimates obtained indicate that energy demand in manufacturing responds significantly to price changes. In addition, estimation results suggest that there are important substitution possibilities among energy forms and between energy and other factors of production. The role of price changes in energy-demand forecasting, as well as in energy policy in general, is clearly established. (author)

  7. The CEDSS model of direct domestic energy demand

    OpenAIRE

    Gotts, Nicholas Mark

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes the design, implementation and testing of the CEDSS model of direct domestic energy demand, and the first results of its use to produce estimates of future demand under a range of scenarios. CEDSS simulates direct domestic energy demand at within communities of approximately 200 households. The scenarios explored differ in the economic conditions assumed, and policy measures adopted at national level.

  8. An energy supply and demand model for South Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silberberg, R.B.

    1981-08-01

    The topic of this thesis is the development of a model of energy supply and demand in South Africa to project energy flows up to the year 2005 and also to assess the implications of policy actions. In this thesis, a method of determining energy flows taking generally accepted economic and technological factors into account is developed. Also, various situations are tested, in order to determine the following: 1) Likely energy flows up to 2005, as well as possible upper and lower bounds. 2) Significant final demand sectors, in terms of energy requirements. 3) The effects of changes in supply and demand sector technology. 4) The implications of policy options such as enengy independence. Owing to the different characteristics of the energy supply and demand sectors, the following techniques were used: 1) Energy demand sectors. 2) Energy supply sectors. 3) Supply/demand equilibration 4) Output. Through successive runs of the model, the policy-maker is able to indentify likely values of energy flows, as well as upper and lower boundaries given the described set of assumptions. The following statements are made as conclusions: 1) The growth rate of domectic coal demand is likely to be 5,5 % per annum up to 2005. 2) The Iron and Steel industry and the Mining industry have the greatest potential effect on coal demand. 3) The coal growth rate stated above implies certain improvements in coal to liquid fuel and electricity conversion. 4) The coal demands of oil energy independence are listed, highlighting the fact that major coal exports and energy independence may be mutually exclusive. Other conclusions regarding capital requirements, oil imports and coking coal utilization are described. The model permits a consistent and inteqrated forecast of national energy flows to be made, providing the policymaker with projections that include the effects of uncertainty with regard to future technologies and economic output. This feature is crucial for policy formulation

  9. Analysis of a Residential Building Energy Consumption Demand Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meng Liu

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available In order to estimate the energy consumption demand of residential buildings, this paper first discusses the status and shortcomings of current domestic energy consumption models. Then it proposes and develops a residential building energy consumption demand model based on a back propagation (BP neural network model. After that, taking residential buildings in Chongqing (P.R. China as an example, 16 energy consumption indicators are introduced as characteristics of the residential buildings in Chongqing. The index system of the BP neutral network prediction model is established and the multi-factorial BP neural network prediction model of Chongqing residential building energy consumption is developed using the Cshap language, based on the SQL server 2005 platform. The results obtained by applying the model in Chongqing are in good agreement with actual ones. In addition, the model provides corresponding approximate data by taking into account the potential energy structure adjustments and relevant energy policy regulations.

  10. Use of artificial neural networks for transport energy demand modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murat, Yetis Sazi; Ceylan, Halim

    2006-01-01

    The paper illustrates an artificial neural network (ANN) approach based on supervised neural networks for the transport energy demand forecasting using socio-economic and transport related indicators. The ANN transport energy demand model is developed. The actual forecast is obtained using a feed forward neural network, trained with back propagation algorithm. In order to investigate the influence of socio-economic indicators on the transport energy demand, the ANN is analyzed based on gross national product (GNP), population and the total annual average veh-km along with historical energy data available from 1970 to 2001. Comparing model predictions with energy data in testing period performs the model validation. The projections are made with two scenarios. It is obtained that the ANN reflects the fluctuation in historical data for both dependent and independent variables. The results obtained bear out the suitability of the adopted methodology for the transport energy-forecasting problem

  11. Energy demand analytics using coupled technological and economic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Impacts of a range of policy scenarios on end-use energy demand are examined using a coupling of MARKAL, an energy system model with extensive supply and end-use technological detail, with Inforum LIFT, a large-scale model of the us. economy with inter-industry, government, and c...

  12. A supply and demand based volatility model for energy prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanamura, Takashi

    2009-01-01

    This paper proposes a new volatility model for energy prices using the supply-demand relationship, which we call a supply and demand based volatility model. We show that the supply curve shape in the model determines the characteristics of the volatility in energy prices. It is found that the inverse Box-Cox transformation supply curve reflecting energy markets causes the inverse leverage effect, i.e., positive correlation between energy prices and volatility. The model is also used to show that an existing (G)ARCH-M model has the foundations on the supply-demand relationship. Additionally, we conduct the empirical studies analyzing the volatility in the U.S. natural gas prices. (author)

  13. A supply and demand based volatility model for energy prices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kanamura, Takashi [J-POWER, 15-1, Ginza 6-Chome, Chuo-ku, Tokyo 104-8165 (Japan)

    2009-09-15

    This paper proposes a new volatility model for energy prices using the supply-demand relationship, which we call a supply and demand based volatility model. We show that the supply curve shape in the model determines the characteristics of the volatility in energy prices. It is found that the inverse Box-Cox transformation supply curve reflecting energy markets causes the inverse leverage effect, i.e., positive correlation between energy prices and volatility. The model is also used to show that an existing (G)ARCH-M model has the foundations on the supply-demand relationship. Additionally, we conduct the empirical studies analyzing the volatility in the U.S. natural gas prices. (author)

  14. Modelling transport energy demand: A socio-technical approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anable, Jillian; Brand, Christian; Tran, Martino; Eyre, Nick

    2012-01-01

    Despite an emerging consensus that societal energy consumption and related emissions are not only influenced by technical efficiency but also by lifestyles and socio-cultural factors, few attempts have been made to operationalise these insights in models of energy demand. This paper addresses that gap by presenting a scenario exercise using an integrated suite of sectoral and whole systems models to explore potential energy pathways in the UK transport sector. Techno-economic driven scenarios are contrasted with one in which social change is strongly influenced by concerns about energy use, the environment and well-being. The ‘what if’ Lifestyle scenario reveals a future in which distance travelled by car is reduced by 74% by 2050 and final energy demand from transport is halved compared to the reference case. Despite the more rapid uptake of electric vehicles and the larger share of electricity in final energy demand, it shows a future where electricity decarbonisation could be delayed. The paper illustrates the key trade-off between the more aggressive pursuit of purely technological fixes and demand reduction in the transport sector and concludes there are strong arguments for pursuing both demand and supply side solutions in the pursuit of emissions reduction and energy security.

  15. Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED-2). User's manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    The IAEA has been supporting its Member States in the area of energy planning for sustainable development. Development and dissemination of appropriate methodologies and their computer codes are important parts of this support. This manual has been produced to facilitate the use of the MAED model: Model for Analysis of Energy Demand. The methodology of the MAED model was originally developed by. B. Chateau and B. Lapillonne of the Institute Economique et Juridique de l'Energie (IEJE) of the University of Grenoble, France, and was presented as the MEDEE model. Since then the MEDEE model has been developed and adopted to be appropriate for modelling of various energy demand system. The IAEA adopted MEDEE-2 model and incorporated important modifications to make it more suitable for application in the developing countries, and it was named as the MAED model. The first version of the MAED model was designed for the DOS based system, which was later on converted for the Windows system. This manual presents the latest version of the MAED model. The most prominent feature of this version is its flexibility for representing structure of energy consumption. The model now allows country-specific representations of energy consumption patterns using the MAED methodology. The user can now disaggregate energy consumption according to the needs and/or data availability in her/his country. As such, MAED has now become a powerful tool for modelling widely diverse energy consumption patterns. This manual presents the model in details and provides guidelines for its application

  16. Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED-2)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    The IAEA has been supporting its Member States in the area of energy planning for sustainable development. Development and dissemination of appropriate methodologies and their computer codes are important parts of this support. This manual has been produced to facilitate the use of the MAED model: Model for Analysis of Energy Demand. The methodology of the MAED model was originally developed by. B. Chateau and B. Lapillonne of the Institute Economique et Juridique de l'Energie (IEJE) of the University of Grenoble, France, and was presented as the MEDEE model. Since then the MEDEE model has been developed and adopted to be appropriate for modelling of various energy demand system. The IAEA adopted MEDEE-2 model and incorporated important modifications to make it more suitable for application in the developing countries, and it was named as the MAED model. The first version of the MAED model was designed for the DOS based system, which was later on converted for the Windows system. This manual presents the latest version of the MAED model. The most prominent feature of this version is its flexibility for representing structure of energy consumption. The model now allows country-specific representations of energy consumption patterns using the MAED methodology. The user can now disaggregate energy consumption according to the needs and/or data availability in her/his country. As such, MAED has now become a powerful tool for modelling widely diverse energy consumption patterns. This manual presents the model in details and provides guidelines for its application

  17. Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED-2). User's manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    The IAEA has been supporting its Member States in the area of energy planning for sustainable development. Development and dissemination of appropriate methodologies and their computer codes are important parts of this support. This manual has been produced to facilitate the use of the MAED model: Model for Analysis of Energy Demand. The methodology of the MAED model was originally developed by. B. Chateau and B. Lapillonne of the Institute Economique et Juridique de l'Energie (IEJE) of the University of Grenoble, France, and was presented as the MEDEE model. Since then the MEDEE model has been developed and adopted to be appropriate for modelling of various energy demand system. The IAEA adopted MEDEE-2 model and incorporated important modifications to make it more suitable for application in the developing countries, and it was named as the MAED model. The first version of the MAED model was designed for the DOS based system, which was later on converted for the Windows system. This manual presents the latest version of the MAED model. The most prominent feature of this version is its flexibility for representing structure of energy consumption. The model now allows country-specific representations of energy consumption patterns using the MAED methodology. The user can now disaggregate energy consumption according to the needs and/or data availability in her/his country. As such, MAED has now become a powerful tool for modelling widely diverse energy consumption patterns. This manual presents the model in details and provides guidelines for its application

  18. Modelling energy demand in the Norwegian building stock

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sartori, Igor

    2008-07-15

    Energy demand in the building stock in Norway represents about 40% of the final energy consumption, of which 22% goes to the residential sector and 18% to the service sector. In Norway there is a strong dependency on electricity for heating purposes, with electricity covering about 80% of the energy demand in buildings. The building sector can play an important role in the achievement of a more sustainable energy system. The work performed in the articles presented in this thesis investigates various aspects related to the energy demand in the building sector, both in singular cases and in the stock as a whole. The work performed in the first part of this thesis on development and survey of case studies provided background knowledge that was then used in the second part, on modelling the entire stock. In the first part, a literature survey of case studies showed that, in a life cycle perspective, the energy used in the operating phase of buildings is the single most important factor. Design of low-energy buildings is then beneficial and should be pursued, even though it implies a somewhat higher embodied energy. A case study was performed on a school building. First, a methodology using a Monte Carlo method in the calibration process was explored. Then, the calibrated model of the school was used to investigate measures for the achievement of high energy efficiency standard through renovation work. In the second part, a model was developed to study the energy demand in a scenario analysis. The results showed the robustness of policies that included conservation measures against the conflicting effects of the other policies. Adopting conservation measures on a large scale showed the potential to reduce both electricity and total energy demand from present day levels while the building stock keeps growing. The results also highlighted the inertia to change of the building stock, due to low activity levels compared to the stock size. It also became clear that a deeper

  19. Modelling future private car energy demand in Ireland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daly, Hannah E.; Ó Gallachóir, Brian P.

    2011-01-01

    Targeted measures influencing vehicle technology are increasingly a tool of energy policy makers within the EU as a means of meeting energy efficiency, renewable energy, climate change and energy security goals. This paper develops the modelling capacity for analysing and evaluating such legislation, with a focus on private car energy demand. We populate a baseline car stock and car activity model for Ireland to 2025 using historical car stock data. The model takes account of the lifetime survival profile of different car types, the trends in vehicle activity over the fleet and the fuel price and income elasticities of new car sales and total fleet activity. The impacts of many policy alternatives may only be simulated by such a bottom-up approach, which can aid policy development and evaluation. The level of detail achieved provides specific insights into the technological drivers of energy consumption, thus aiding planning for meeting climate targets. This paper focuses on the methodology and baseline scenario. Baseline results for Ireland forecast a decline in private car energy demand growth (0.2%, compared with 4% in the period 2000–2008), caused by the relative growth in fleet efficiency compared with activity. - Highlights: ► Bottom-up private car energy forecasting model developed. ► The demographic and technological distribution of vehicle activity is a key veriable. ► Irish car energy demand growth predicted to slow steadily. ► Change in vehicle taxation forecast to save 10% energy.

  20. A multi-scale adaptive model of residential energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farzan, Farbod; Jafari, Mohsen A.; Gong, Jie; Farzan, Farnaz; Stryker, Andrew

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We extend an energy demand model to investigate changes in behavioral and usage patterns. • The model is capable of analyzing why demand behaves the way it does. • The model empowers decision makers to investigate DSM strategies and effectiveness. • The model provides means to measure the effect of energy prices on daily profile. • The model considers the coupling effects of adopting multiple new technologies. - Abstract: In this paper, we extend a previously developed bottom-up energy demand model such that the model can be used to determine changes in behavioral and energy usage patterns of a community when: (i) new load patterns from Plug-in Electrical Vehicles (PEV) or other devices are introduced; (ii) new technologies and smart devices are used within premises; and (iii) new Demand Side Management (DSM) strategies, such as price responsive demand are implemented. Unlike time series forecasting methods that solely rely on historical data, the model only uses a minimal amount of data at the atomic level for its basic constructs. These basic constructs can be integrated into a household unit or a community model using rules and connectors that are, in principle, flexible and can be altered according to the type of questions that need to be answered. Furthermore, the embedded dynamics of the model works on the basis of: (i) Markovian stochastic model for simulating human activities, (ii) Bayesian and logistic technology adoption models, and (iii) optimization, and rule-based models to respond to price signals without compromising users’ comfort. The proposed model is not intended to replace traditional forecasting models. Instead it provides an analytical framework that can be used at the design stage of new products and communities to evaluate design alternatives. The framework can also be used to answer questions such as why demand behaves the way it does by examining demands at different scales and by playing What-If games. These

  1. Modelling energy demand in the buildings sector within the EU

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O Broin, Eoin

    2012-11-01

    In the on-going effort within the EU to tackle greenhouse gas emissions and secure future energy supplies, the buildings sector is often referred to as offering a large potential for energy savings. The aim of this thesis is to produce scenarios that highlight the parameters that affect the energy demands and thus potentials for savings of the building sector. Top-down and bottom-up approaches to modelling energy demand in EU buildings are applied in this thesis. The top-down approach uses econometrics to establish the historical contribution of various parameters to energy demands for space and water heating in the residential sectors of four EU countries. The bottom-up approach models the explicit impact of trends in energy efficiency improvement on total energy demand in the EU buildings stock. The two approaches are implemented independently, i.e., the results from the top-down studies do not feed into those from the bottom-up studies or vice versa. The explanatory variables used in the top-down approach are: energy prices; heating degree days, as a proxy for outdoor climate; a linear time trend, as a proxy for technology development; and the lag of energy demand, as a proxy for inertia in the system. In this case, inertia refers to the time it takes to replace space and water heating systems in reaction to price changes. The analysis gives long-term price elasticities of demand as follows: for France, -0.17; for Italy, -0.35; for Sweden, -0.27; and for the UK, -0.35. These results reveal that the price elasticity of demand for space and water heating is inelastic in each of these cases. Nonetheless, scenarios created for the period up to 2050 using these elasticities and an annual price increase of 3 % show that demand can be reduced by more than 1 % per year in France and Sweden and by less than 1 % per year in Italy and the UK. In the bottom-up modelling, varying rates for conversion efficiencies, heating standards for new buildings, end-use efficiency, and

  2. Testing simulation and structural models with applications to energy demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolff, Hendrik

    2007-12-01

    This dissertation deals with energy demand and consists of two parts. Part one proposes a unified econometric framework for modeling energy demand and examples illustrate the benefits of the technique by estimating the elasticity of substitution between energy and capital. Part two assesses the energy conservation policy of Daylight Saving Time and empirically tests the performance of electricity simulation. In particular, the chapter "Imposing Monotonicity and Curvature on Flexible Functional Forms" proposes an estimator for inference using structural models derived from economic theory. This is motivated by the fact that in many areas of economic analysis theory restricts the shape as well as other characteristics of functions used to represent economic constructs. Specific contributions are (a) to increase the computational speed and tractability of imposing regularity conditions, (b) to provide regularity preserving point estimates, (c) to avoid biases existent in previous applications, and (d) to illustrate the benefits of our approach via numerical simulation results. The chapter "Can We Close the Gap between the Empirical Model and Economic Theory" discusses the more fundamental question of whether the imposition of a particular theory to a dataset is justified. I propose a hypothesis test to examine whether the estimated empirical model is consistent with the assumed economic theory. Although the proposed methodology could be applied to a wide set of economic models, this is particularly relevant for estimating policy parameters that affect energy markets. This is demonstrated by estimating the Slutsky matrix and the elasticity of substitution between energy and capital, which are crucial parameters used in computable general equilibrium models analyzing energy demand and the impacts of environmental regulations. Using the Berndt and Wood dataset, I find that capital and energy are complements and that the data are significantly consistent with duality

  3. Modelling lifestyle effects on energy demand and related emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weber, C.

    2000-01-01

    An approach to analyse and quantify the impact of lifestyle factors on current and future energy demand is developed. Thereby not only directly environmentally relevant consumer activities such as car use or heating have been analysed, but also expenditure patterns which induce environmental damage through the production of the consumed goods. The use of household survey data from the national statistical offices offers the possibility to cover this wide range of activities. For the available social-economic household characteristics a variety of different behavioural patterns have been observed. For evaluating the energy and emission consequences of the consumed goods enhanced input-output models are used. The additions implemented - a mixed monetary-energetic approach for inter-industry flows and a separate treatment of transport -related emissions - improve the reliability of the obtained results. The developed approach has been used for analysing current emissions profiles and distributions in West Germany, France and the Netherlands as well as scenarios for future energy demand and related emissions. It therefore provides a comprehensive methodology to analyse environmental effects in a consumer and citizen perspective and thus contributes to an increase transparency of complex economic and ecological interconnections. (author)

  4. Demand Response Resource Quantification with Detailed Building Energy Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hale, Elaine; Horsey, Henry; Merket, Noel; Stoll, Brady; Nag, Ambarish

    2017-04-03

    Demand response is a broad suite of technologies that enables changes in electrical load operations in support of power system reliability and efficiency. Although demand response is not a new concept, there is new appetite for comprehensively evaluating its technical potential in the context of renewable energy integration. The complexity of demand response makes this task difficult -- we present new methods for capturing the heterogeneity of potential responses from buildings, their time-varying nature, and metrics such as thermal comfort that help quantify likely acceptability of specific demand response actions. Computed with an automated software framework, the methods are scalable.

  5. Energy demand modelling: pointing out alternative energy sources. The example of industry in OECD countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Renou, P.

    1992-01-01

    This thesis studies energy demand and alternative energy sources in OECD countries. In the first part, the principle models usually used for energy demand modelling. In the second part, the author studies the flexible functional forms (translog, generalized Leontief, generalized quadratic, Fourier) to obtain an estimation of the production function. In the third part, several examples are given, chosen in seven countries (Usa, Japan, Federal Republic of Germany, France, United Kingdom, Italy, Canada). Energy systems analysis in these countries, can help to choose models and gives informations on alternative energies. 246 refs., 24 figs., 27 tabs

  6. Analysis of Final Energy Demand by Sector in Malaysia using MAED Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumar, M.; Muhammed Zulfakar Mohd Zolkaffly; Alawiah Musa

    2011-01-01

    Energy supply security is important in ensuring a long term supply to fulfill the growing energy demand. This paper presents the use of IAEA energy planning tool, Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED) to analyze, simulate and compare final energy demand by five different sectors in Malaysia under some assumptions, bounds and restrictions and the outcome can be used for planning of energy supply in future. (author)

  7. A multi-scale energy demand model suggests sharing market risks with intelligent energy cooperatives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G. Methenitis (Georgios); M. Kaisers (Michael); J.A. La Poutré (Han)

    2015-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper, we propose a multi-scale model of energy demand that is consistent with observations at a macro scale, in our use-case standard load profiles for (residential) electric loads. We employ the model to study incentives to assume the risk of volatile market prices for

  8. Modelling of Sudan’s Energy Supply, Transformation, and Demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali A. Rabah

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The study aimed to develop energy flow diagram (Sankey diagram of Sudan for the base year 2014. The developed Sankey diagram is the first of its kind in Sudan. The available energy balance for the base year 2012 is a simple line draw and did not count the energy supply by private and mixed sectors such as sugar and oil industries and marine and civil aviation. The private and mixed sectors account for about 7% of the national grid electric power. Four energy modules are developed: resources, transformation, demand, and export and import modules. The data are obtained from relevant Sudanese ministries and directorates and Sudan Central Bank. “e!Sankey 4 pro” software is used to develop the Sankey diagram. The main primary types of energy in Sudan are oil, hydro, biomass, and renewable energy. Sudan has a surplus of gasoline, petroleum coke, and biomass and deficit in electric power, gasoil, jet oil, and LPG. The surplus of gasoline is exported; however, the petroleum coke is kept as reserve. The deficit is covered by import. The overall useful energy is 76% and the loss is 24%. The useful energy is distributed among residential (38%, transportation (33%, industry (12%, services (16%, and agriculture (1% sectors.

  9. The role of nuclear energy for Korean long-term energy supply strategy : application of energy demand-supply model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chae, Kyu Nam

    1995-02-01

    An energy demand and supply analysis is carried out to establish the future nuclear energy system of Korea in the situation of environmental restriction and resource depletion. Based on the useful energy intensity concept, a long-term energy demand forecasting model FIN2USE is developed to integrate with a supply model. The energy supply optimization model MESSAGE is improved to evaluate the role of nuclear energy system in Korean long-term energy supply strategy. Long-term demand for useful energy used as an exogeneous input of the energy supply model is derived from the trend of useful energy intensity by sectors and energy carriers. Supply-side optimization is performed for the overall energy system linked with the reactor and nuclear fuel cycle strategy. The limitation of fossil fuel resources and the CO 2 emission constraints are reflected as determinants of the future energy system. As a result of optimization of energy system using linear programming with the objective of total discounted system cost, the optimal energy system is obtained with detailed results on the nuclear sector for various scenarios. It is shown that the relative importance of nuclear energy would increase especially in the cases of CO 2 emission constraint. It is concluded that nuclear reactor strategy and fuel cycle strategy should be incorporated with national energy strategy and be changed according to environmental restriction and energy demand scenarios. It is shown that this modelling approach is suitable for a decision support system of nuclear energy policy

  10. Energy Demand Modeling Methodology of Key State Transitions of Turning Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shun Jia

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Energy demand modeling of machining processes is the foundation of energy optimization. Energy demand of machining state transition is integral to the energy requirements of the machining process. However, research focus on energy modeling of state transition is scarce. To fill this gap, an energy demand modeling methodology of key state transitions of the turning process is proposed. The establishment of an energy demand model of state transition could improve the accuracy of the energy model of the machining process, which also provides an accurate model and reliable data for energy optimization of the machining process. Finally, case studies were conducted on a CK6153i CNC lathe, the results demonstrating that predictive accuracy with the proposed method is generally above 90% for the state transition cases.

  11. Simulating residential demand response: Improving socio-technical assumptions in activity-based models of energy demand

    OpenAIRE

    McKenna, E.; Higginson, S.; Grunewald, P.; Darby, S. J.

    2017-01-01

    Demand response is receiving increasing interest as a new form of flexibility within low-carbon power systems. Energy models are an important tool to assess the potential capability of demand side contributions. This paper critically reviews the assumptions in current models and introduces a new conceptual framework to better facilitate such an assessment. We propose three dimensions along which change could occur, namely technology, activities and service expectations. Using this framework, ...

  12. Model documentation report: Industrial sector demand module of the National Energy Modeling System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-01-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Industrial Demand Model. The report catalogues and describes model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code. This document serves three purposes. First, it is a reference document providing a detailed description of the NEMS Industrial Model for model analysts, users, and the public. Second, this report meets the legal requirement of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its models. Third, it facilitates continuity in model development by providing documentation from which energy analysts can undertake model enhancements, data updates, and parameter refinements as future projects. The NEMS Industrial Demand Model is a dynamic accounting model, bringing together the disparate industries and uses of energy in those industries, and putting them together in an understandable and cohesive framework. The Industrial Model generates mid-term (up to the year 2015) forecasts of industrial sector energy demand as a component of the NEMS integrated forecasting system. From the NEMS system, the Industrial Model receives fuel prices, employment data, and the value of industrial output. Based on the values of these variables, the Industrial Model passes back to the NEMS system estimates of consumption by fuel types

  13. An Integrated Modeling Approach for Forecasting Long-Term Energy Demand in Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Syed Aziz Ur Rehman

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Energy planning and policy development require an in-depth assessment of energy resources and long-term demand forecast estimates. Pakistan, unfortunately, lacks reliable data on its energy resources as well do not have dependable long-term energy demand forecasts. As a result, the policy makers could not come up with an effective energy policy in the history of the country. Energy demand forecast has attained greatest ever attention in the perspective of growing population and diminishing fossil fuel resources. In this study, Pakistan’s energy demand forecast for electricity, natural gas, oil, coal and LPG across all the sectors of the economy have been undertaken. Three different energy demand forecasting methodologies, i.e., Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA, Holt-Winter and Long-range Energy Alternate Planning (LEAP model were used. The demand forecast estimates of each of these methods were compared using annual energy demand data. The results of this study suggest that ARIMA is more appropriate for energy demand forecasting for Pakistan compared to Holt-Winter model and LEAP model. It is estimated that industrial sector’s demand shall be highest in the year 2035 followed by transport and domestic sectors. The results further suggest that energy fuel mix will change considerably, such that oil will be the most highly consumed energy form (38.16% followed by natural gas (36.57%, electricity (16.22%, coal (7.52% and LPG (1.52% in 2035. In view of higher demand forecast of fossil fuels consumption, this study recommends that government should take the initiative for harnessing renewable energy resources for meeting future energy demand to not only avert huge import bill but also achieving energy security and sustainability in the long run.

  14. Effects of atmospheric variability on energy utilization and conservation. [Space heating energy demand modeling; Program HEATLOAD

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reiter, E.R.; Johnson, G.R.; Somervell, W.L. Jr.; Sparling, E.W.; Dreiseitly, E.; Macdonald, B.C.; McGuirk, J.P.; Starr, A.M.

    1976-11-01

    Research conducted between 1 July 1975 and 31 October 1976 is reported. A ''physical-adaptive'' model of the space-conditioning demand for energy and its response to changes in weather regimes was developed. This model includes parameters pertaining to engineering factors of building construction, to weather-related factors, and to socio-economic factors. Preliminary testing of several components of the model on the city of Greeley, Colorado, yielded most encouraging results. Other components, especially those pertaining to socio-economic factors, are still under development. Expansion of model applications to different types of structures and larger regions is presently underway. A CRT-display model for energy demand within the conterminous United States also has passed preliminary tests. A major effort was expended to obtain disaggregated data on energy use from utility companies throughout the United States. The study of atmospheric variability revealed that the 22- to 26-day vacillation in the potential and kinetic energy modes of the Northern Hemisphere is related to the behavior of the planetary long-waves, and that the midwinter dip in zonal available potential energy is reflected in the development of blocking highs. Attempts to classify weather patterns over the eastern and central United States have proceeded satisfactorily to the point where testing of our method for longer time periods appears desirable.

  15. The long-term forecast of Taiwan's energy supply and demand: LEAP model application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Yophy; Bor, Yunchang Jeffrey; Peng, Chieh-Yu

    2011-01-01

    The long-term forecasting of energy supply and demand is an extremely important topic of fundamental research in Taiwan due to Taiwan's lack of natural resources, dependence on energy imports, and the nation's pursuit of sustainable development. In this article, we provide an overview of energy supply and demand in Taiwan, and a summary of the historical evolution and current status of its energy policies, as background to a description of the preparation and application of a Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model of Taiwan's energy sector. The Taiwan LEAP model is used to compare future energy demand and supply patterns, as well as greenhouse gas emissions, for several alternative scenarios of energy policy and energy sector evolution. Results of scenarios featuring 'business-as-usual' policies, aggressive energy-efficiency improvement policies, and on-schedule retirement of Taiwan's three existing nuclear plants are provided and compared, along with sensitivity cases exploring the impacts of lower economic growth assumptions. A concluding section provides an interpretation of the implications of model results for future energy and climate policies in Taiwan. - Research highlights: → The LEAP model is useful for international energy policy comparison. → Nuclear power plants have significant, positive impacts on CO 2 emission. → The most effective energy policy is to adopt demand-side management. → Reasonable energy pricing provides incentives for energy efficiency and conservation. → Financial crisis has less impact on energy demand than aggressive energy policy.

  16. Model documentation report: Commercial Sector Demand Module of the National Energy Modeling System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-01-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Commercial Sector Demand Module. The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated through the synthesis and scenario development based on these components. The NEMS Commercial Sector Demand Module is a simulation tool based upon economic and engineering relationships that models commercial sector energy demands at the nine Census Division level of detail for eleven distinct categories of commercial buildings. Commercial equipment selections are performed for the major fuels of electricity, natural gas, and distillate fuel, for the major services of space heating, space cooling, water heating, ventilation, cooking, refrigeration, and lighting. The algorithm also models demand for the minor fuels of residual oil, liquefied petroleum gas, steam coal, motor gasoline, and kerosene, the renewable fuel sources of wood and municipal solid waste, and the minor services of office equipment. Section 2 of this report discusses the purpose of the model, detailing its objectives, primary input and output quantities, and the relationship of the Commercial Module to the other modules of the NEMS system. Section 3 of the report describes the rationale behind the model design, providing insights into further assumptions utilized in the model development process to this point. Section 3 also reviews alternative commercial sector modeling methodologies drawn from existing literature, providing a comparison to the chosen approach. Section 4 details the model structure, using graphics and text to illustrate model flows and key computations.

  17. Dynamic temperature dependence patterns in future energy demand models in the context of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hekkenberg, M.; Moll, H.C.; Uiterkamp, A.J.M. Schoot

    2009-01-01

    Energy demand depends on outdoor temperature in a 'u' shaped fashion. Various studies have used this temperature dependence to investigate the effects of climate change on energy demand. Such studies contain implicit or explicit assumptions to describe expected socio-economic changes that may affect future energy demand. This paper critically analyzes these implicit or explicit assumptions and their possible effect on the studies' outcomes. First we analyze the interaction between the socio-economic structure and the temperature dependence pattern (TDP) of energy demand. We find that socio-economic changes may alter the TDP in various ways. Next we investigate how current studies manage these dynamics in socio-economic structure. We find that many studies systematically misrepresent the possible effect of socio-economic changes on the TDP of energy demand. Finally, we assess the consequences of these misrepresentations in an energy demand model based on temperature dependence and climate scenarios. Our model results indicate that expected socio-economic dynamics generally lead to an underestimation of future energy demand in models that misrepresent such dynamics. We conclude that future energy demand models should improve the incorporation of socio-economic dynamics. We propose dynamically modeling several key parameters and using direct meteorological data instead of degree days. (author)

  18. Modeling and analysis of long term energy demands in residential sector of pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rashid, T.; Sahir, M.H.

    2015-01-01

    Residential sector is the core among the energy demand sectors in Pakistan. Currently, various techniques are being used worldwide to assess future energy demands including integrated system modeling (ISM). Therefore, the current study is focused on implementation of ISM approach for future energy demand analysis of Pakistan's residential sector in terms of increase in population, rapid urbanization, household size and type, and increase/decrease in GDP. A detailed business-as-usual (BAU) model is formulated in TIMES energy modeling framework using different factors like growth in future energy services, end-use technology characterization, and restricted fuel supplies. Additionally, the developed model is capable to compare the projected energy demand under different scenarios e.g. strong economy, weak economy and energy efficiency. The implementation of ISM proved a viable approach to predict the future energy demands of Pakistan's residential sector. Furthermore, the analysis shows that the energy consumption in the residential sector would be 46.5 Mtoe (Million Ton of Oil Equivalent) in 2040 compared to 23 Mtoe of the base year (2007) along with 600% increase in electricity demands. The study further maps the potential residential energy policies to congregate the future demands. (author)

  19. Modelling energy demand of developing countries: Are the specific features adequately captured?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhattacharyya, Subhes C.; Timilsina, Govinda R.

    2010-01-01

    This paper critically reviews existing energy demand forecasting methodologies highlighting the methodological diversities and developments over the past four decades in order to investigate whether the existing energy demand models are appropriate for capturing the specific features of developing countries. The study finds that two types of approaches, econometric and end-use accounting, are commonly used in the existing energy demand models. Although energy demand models have greatly evolved since the early seventies, key issues such as the poor-rich and urban-rural divides, traditional energy resources and differentiation between commercial and non-commercial energy commodities are often poorly reflected in these models. While the end-use energy accounting models with detailed sectoral representations produce more realistic projections as compared to the econometric models, they still suffer from huge data deficiencies especially in developing countries. Development and maintenance of more detailed energy databases, further development of models to better reflect developing country context and institutionalizing the modelling capacity in developing countries are the key requirements for energy demand modelling to deliver richer and more reliable input to policy formulation in developing countries.

  20. Modelling energy demand of developing countries: Are the specific features adequately captured?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bhattacharyya, Subhes C. [CEPMLP, University of Dundee, Dundee DD1 4HN (United Kingdom); Timilsina, Govinda R. [Development Research Group, The World Bank, Washington DC (United States)

    2010-04-15

    This paper critically reviews existing energy demand forecasting methodologies highlighting the methodological diversities and developments over the past four decades in order to investigate whether the existing energy demand models are appropriate for capturing the specific features of developing countries. The study finds that two types of approaches, econometric and end-use accounting, are commonly used in the existing energy demand models. Although energy demand models have greatly evolved since the early seventies, key issues such as the poor-rich and urban-rural divides, traditional energy resources and differentiation between commercial and non-commercial energy commodities are often poorly reflected in these models. While the end-use energy accounting models with detailed sectoral representations produce more realistic projections as compared to the econometric models, they still suffer from huge data deficiencies especially in developing countries. Development and maintenance of more detailed energy databases, further development of models to better reflect developing country context and institutionalizing the modelling capacity in developing countries are the key requirements for energy demand modelling to deliver richer and more reliable input to policy formulation in developing countries. (author)

  1. On energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haefele, W.

    1977-01-01

    Since the energy crisis, a number of energy plans have been proposed, and almost all of these envisage some kind of energy demand adaptations or conservation measures, hoping thus to escape the anticipated problems of energy supply. However, there seems to be no clear explanation of the basis on which our foreseeable future energy problems could be eased. And in fact, a first attempt at a more exact definition of energy demand and its interaction with other objectives, such as economic ones, shows that it is a highly complex concept which we still hardly understand. The article explains in some detail why it is so difficult to understand energy demand

  2. Norwegian Residential Energy Demand: Coordinated use of a System Engineering and a Macroeconomic Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tor A Johnsen

    1996-07-01

    Full Text Available In Norway, the system engineering model MARKAL and the macroeconomic model MSG-EE are both used in studies of national CO2 controlling strategies. MARKAL is a linear programming model that calculates a composite set of technologies necessary to meet demand and environmental constraints at minimised total energy expenditure. MSG-EE is an applied general equilibrium model including the link between economic activity, energy demand and emissions to air. MSG-EE has a theory consistent description of the link between income, prices and energy demand, but the representation of technological improvements is simple. MARKAL has a sophisticated description of future energy technology options, but includes no feedback to the general economy. A project for studying the potential for a coordinated use of these two models was initiated and funded by the Norwegian Research Council (NFR. This paper gives a brief presentation of the two models. Results from independent model calculations show that MARKAL gives a signficant lower residential energy demand than MSG-EE does. This is explained by major differences in modelling approach. A first attempt of coordinating the residential energy demand in the models is reported. This attempt shows that implementing results from MARKAL, in MSG-EE for the residential sector alone gives little impact on the general economy. A further development of an iteration procedure between the models should include all energy using sectors.

  3. China’s primary energy demands in 2020: Predictions from an MPSO–RBF estimation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu Shiwei; Wei Yiming; Wang Ke

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► A Mix-encoding PSO and RBF network-based energy demand forecasting model is proposed. ► The proposed model has simpler structure and smaller estimated errors than other ANN models. ► China’s energy demand could reach 6.25 billion, 4.16 billion, and 5.29 billion tons tce. ► China’s energy efficiency in 2020 will increase by more than 30% compared with 2009. - Abstract: In the present study, a Mix-encoding Particle Swarm Optimization and Radial Basis Function (MPSO–RBF) network-based energy demand forecasting model is proposed and applied to forecast China’s energy consumption until 2020. The energy demand is analyzed for the period from 1980 to 2009 based on GDP, population, proportion of industry in GDP, urbanization rate, and share of coal energy. The results reveal that the proposed MPSO–RBF based model has fewer hidden nodes and smaller estimated errors compared with other ANN-based estimation models. The average annual growth of China’s energy demand will be 6.70%, 2.81%, and 5.08% for the period between 2010 and 2020 in three scenarios and could reach 6.25 billion, 4.16 billion, and 5.29 billion tons coal equivalent in 2020. Regardless of future scenarios, China’s energy efficiency in 2020 will increase by more than 30% compared with 2009.

  4. The Demand Side in Economic Models of Energy Markets: The Challenge of Representing Consumer Behavior

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krysiak, Frank C.; Weigt, Hannes

    2015-01-01

    Energy models play an increasing role in the ongoing energy transition processes either as tools for forecasting potential developments or for assessments of policy and market design options. In recent years, these models have increased in scope and scale and provide a reasonable representation of the energy supply side, technological aspects and general macroeconomic interactions. However, the representation of the demand side and consumer behavior has remained rather simplistic. The objective of this paper is twofold. First, we review existing large-scale energy model approaches, namely bottom-up and top-down models, with respect to their demand-side representation. Second, we identify gaps in existing approaches and draft potential pathways to account for a more detailed demand-side and behavior representation in energy modeling.

  5. The Demand Side in Economic Models of Energy Markets: The Challenge of Representing Consumer Behavior

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krysiak, Frank C., E-mail: frank.krysiak@unibas.ch; Weigt, Hannes [Department of Business and Economics, University of Basel, Basel (Switzerland)

    2015-05-19

    Energy models play an increasing role in the ongoing energy transition processes either as tools for forecasting potential developments or for assessments of policy and market design options. In recent years, these models have increased in scope and scale and provide a reasonable representation of the energy supply side, technological aspects and general macroeconomic interactions. However, the representation of the demand side and consumer behavior has remained rather simplistic. The objective of this paper is twofold. First, we review existing large-scale energy model approaches, namely bottom-up and top-down models, with respect to their demand-side representation. Second, we identify gaps in existing approaches and draft potential pathways to account for a more detailed demand-side and behavior representation in energy modeling.

  6. The Demand Side in Economic Models of Energy Markets: The Challenge of Representing Consumer Behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank eKrysiak

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Energy models play an increasing role in the ongoing energy transition processes either as tools for forecasting potential developments or for assessments of policy and market design options. In recent years these models have increased in scope and scale and provide a reasonable representation of the energy supply side, technological aspects and general macroeconomic interactions. However, the representation of the demand side and consumer behavior has remained rather simplistic. The objective of this paper is twofold. First, we review existing large scale energy model approaches, namely bottom-up and top-down models, with respect to their demand side representation. Second, we identify gaps in existing approaches and draft potential pathways to account for a more detailed demand side and behavior representation in energy modeling.

  7. The role of energy-service demand reduction in global climate change mitigation: Combining energy modelling and decomposition analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kesicki, Fabian; Anandarajah, Gabrial

    2011-01-01

    In order to reduce energy-related CO 2 emissions different options have been considered: energy efficiency improvements, structural changes to low carbon or zero carbon fuel/technologies, carbon sequestration, and reduction in energy-service demands (useful energy). While efficiency and technology options have been extensively studied within the context of climate change mitigation, this paper addresses the possible role of price-related energy-service demand reduction. For this analysis, the elastic demand version of the TIAM-UCL global energy system model is used in combination with decomposition analysis. The results of the CO 2 emission decomposition indicate that a reduction in energy-service demand can play a limited role, contributing around 5% to global emission reduction in the 21st century. A look at the sectoral level reveals that the demand reduction can play a greater role in selected sectors like transport contributing around 16% at a global level. The societal welfare loss is found to be high when the price elasticity of demand is low. - Highlights: → A reduction in global energy-service demand can contribute around 5% to global emission reduction in the 21st century. → The role of demand is a lot higher in transport than in the residential sector. → Contribution of demand reduction is higher in early periods of the 21st century. → Societal welfare loss is found to be high when the price elasticity of demand is low. → Regional shares in residual emissions vary under different elasticity scenarios.

  8. The role of energy-service demand reduction in global climate change mitigation: Combining energy modelling and decomposition analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kesicki, Fabian, E-mail: fabian.kesicki.09@ucl.ac.uk [UCL Energy Institute, University College London, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London, WC1H 0NN (United Kingdom); Anandarajah, Gabrial [UCL Energy Institute, University College London, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London, WC1H 0NN (United Kingdom)

    2011-11-15

    In order to reduce energy-related CO{sub 2} emissions different options have been considered: energy efficiency improvements, structural changes to low carbon or zero carbon fuel/technologies, carbon sequestration, and reduction in energy-service demands (useful energy). While efficiency and technology options have been extensively studied within the context of climate change mitigation, this paper addresses the possible role of price-related energy-service demand reduction. For this analysis, the elastic demand version of the TIAM-UCL global energy system model is used in combination with decomposition analysis. The results of the CO{sub 2} emission decomposition indicate that a reduction in energy-service demand can play a limited role, contributing around 5% to global emission reduction in the 21st century. A look at the sectoral level reveals that the demand reduction can play a greater role in selected sectors like transport contributing around 16% at a global level. The societal welfare loss is found to be high when the price elasticity of demand is low. - Highlights: > A reduction in global energy-service demand can contribute around 5% to global emission reduction in the 21st century. > The role of demand is a lot higher in transport than in the residential sector. > Contribution of demand reduction is higher in early periods of the 21st century. > Societal welfare loss is found to be high when the price elasticity of demand is low. > Regional shares in residual emissions vary under different elasticity scenarios.

  9. Energy demand modelling and GHG emission reduction: case study Croatia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pukšec, Tomislav; Mathiesen, Brian Vad; Novosel, Tomislav

    2013-01-01

    In the light of new European energy-climate package and its measures for increasing security of supply, decreasing the impact on environment and stimulating sustainable development with special emphasis on job creation and regional growth, Croatia as a future EU member state, needs to reconsider ...

  10. A PSO–GA optimal model to estimate primary energy demand of China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu Shiwei; Wei Yiming; Wang Ke

    2012-01-01

    To improve estimation efficiency for future projections, the present study has proposed a hybrid algorithm, Particle Swarm Optimization and Genetic Algorithm optimal Energy Demand Estimating (PSO–GA EDE) model, for China. The coefficients of the three forms of the model (linear, exponential, and quadratic) are optimized by PSO–GA using factors, such as GDP, population, economic structure, urbanization rate, and energy consumption structure, that affect demand. Based on 20-year historical data between 1990 and 2009, the simulation results of the proposed model have greater accuracy and reliability than other single optimization methods. Moreover, it can be used with optimal coefficients for the energy demand projections of China. The departure coefficient method is applied to get the weights of the three forms of the model to obtain a combinational prediction. The energy demand of China is going to be 4.79, 4.04, and 4.48 billion tce in 2015, and 6.91, 5.03, and 6.11 billion tce (“standard” tons coal equivalent) in 2020 under three different scenarios. Further, the projection results are compared with other estimating methods. - Highlights: ► A hybrid algorithm PSO–GA optimal energy demands estimating model for China. ► Energy demand of China is estimated by 2020 in three different scenarios. ► The projection results are compared with other estimating methods.

  11. Energy Systems Scenario Modelling and Long Term Forecasting of Hourly Electricity Demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alberg Østergaard, Poul; Møller Andersen, Frits; Kwon, Pil Seok

    2015-01-01

    . The results show that even with a limited short term electric car fleet, these will have a significant effect on the energy system; the energy system’s ability to integrate wind power and the demand for condensing power generation capacity in the system. Charging patterns and flexibility have significant...... or inflexible electric vehicles and individual heat pumps, and in the long term it is investigated what the effects of changes in the load profiles due to changing weights of demand sectors are. The analyses are based on energy systems simulations using EnergyPLAN and demand forecasting using the Helena model...... effects on this. Likewise, individual heat pumps may affect the system operation if they are equipped with heat storages. The analyses also show that the long term changes in electricity demand curve profiles have little impact on the energy system performance. The flexibility given by heat pumps...

  12. Energy demand projections based on an uncertain dynamic system modeling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dong, S.

    2000-01-01

    Today, China has become the world's second largest pollution source of CO 2 . Owing to coal-based energy consumption, it is estimated that 85--90% of the SO 2 and CO 2 emission of China results from coal use. With high economic growth and increasing environmental concerns, China's energy consumption in the next few decades has become an issue of active concern. Forecasting of energy demand over long periods, however, is getting more complex and uncertain. It is believed that the economic and energy systems are chaotic and nonlinear. Traditional linear system modeling, used mostly in energy demand forecasts, therefore, is not a useful approach. In view of uncertainty and imperfect information about future economic growth and energy development, an uncertain dynamic system model, which has the ability to incorporate and absorb the nature of an uncertain system with imperfect or incomplete information, is developed. Using the model, the forecasting of energy demand in the next 25 years is provided. The model predicts that China's energy demand in 2020 will be about 2,700--3,000 Mtce, coal demand 3,500 Mt, increasing by 128% and 154%, respectively, compared with that of 1995

  13. Demand response in energy markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skytte, K.; Birk Mortensen, J.

    2004-11-01

    Improving the ability of energy demand to respond to wholesale prices during critical periods of the spot market can reduce the total costs of reliably meeting demand, and the level and volatility of the prices. This fact has lead to a growing interest in the short-run demand response. There has especially been a growing interest in the electricity market where peak-load periods with high spot prices and occasional local blackouts have recently been seen. Market concentration at the supply side can result in even higher peak-load prices. Demand response by shifting demand from peak to base-load periods can counteract the market power in the peak-load. However, demand response has so far been modest since the current short-term price elasticity seems to be small. This is also the case for related markets, for example, green certificates where the demand is determined as a percentage of the power demand, or for heat and natural gas markets. This raises a number of interesting research issues: 1) Demand response in different energy markets, 2) Estimation of price elasticity and flexibility, 3) Stimulation of demand response, 4) Regulation, policy and modelling aspects, 5) Demand response and market power at the supply side, 6) Energy security of supply, 7) Demand response in forward, spot, ancillary service, balance and capacity markets, 8) Demand response in deviated markets, e.g., emission, futures, and green certificate markets, 9) Value of increased demand response, 10) Flexible households. (BA)

  14. Projection of energy demand for the period 2004-2035 in Argentina using the model 'MAED'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jensen Mariani, Santiago N.; Cañadas, Valeria

    2009-01-01

    The tool used in CNEA to study projection of energy demand in Argentina, is the Model for Energy Demand Analysis 'MAED', supplied by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), launched by the project 'Strengthening capacity to develop sustainable energy systems' RLA/0/029, organized by that agency and OLADE. This is resumed by the Prospective and Energy Planning Division, as a comprehensive analysis of the energy chain in the country, conducted over many years in the CNEA and that was reduced at just supply analysis in recent years. For the modeling of the national energy demand, there were found a series of assumptions about population growth, changes in the economy and other variables, in order to determine the final energy demand for the study period 2004 -2035; in a total of three scenarios will be detailed in the relevant sections. As shown, the results reveal the high dependence on fossil fuels, even in a scenario with efficient energy use, and as in this context, an increasing involvement of nuclear energy in the energy matrix could offset this dependence by diversifying and strengthening the supply of electricity. (author)

  15. Prediction of energy demands using neural network with model identification by global optimization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yokoyama, Ryohei; Wakui, Tetsuya; Satake, Ryoichi [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Osaka Prefecture University, 1-1 Gakuen-cho, Naka-ku, Sakai, Osaka 599-8531 (Japan)

    2009-02-15

    To operate energy supply plants properly from the viewpoints of stable energy supply, and energy and cost savings, it is important to predict energy demands accurately as basic conditions. Several methods of predicting energy demands have been proposed, and one of them is to use neural networks. Although local optimization methods such as gradient ones have conventionally been adopted in the back propagation procedure to identify the values of model parameters, they have the significant drawback that they can derive only local optimal solutions. In this paper, a global optimization method called ''Modal Trimming Method'' proposed for non-linear programming problems is adopted to identify the values of model parameters. In addition, the trend and periodic change are first removed from time series data on energy demand, and the converted data is used as the main input to a neural network. Furthermore, predicted values of air temperature and relative humidity are considered as additional inputs to the neural network, and their effect on the prediction of energy demand is investigated. This approach is applied to the prediction of the cooling demand in a building used for a bench mark test of a variety of prediction methods, and its validity and effectiveness are clarified. (author)

  16. Heating and cooling building energy demand evaluation; a simplified model and a modified degree days approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Rosa, Mattia; Bianco, Vincenzo; Scarpa, Federico; Tagliafico, Luca A.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A dynamic model to estimate the energy performance of buildings is presented. • The model is validated against leading software packages, TRNSYS and Energy Plus. • Modified degree days are introduced to account for solar irradiation effects. - Abstract: Degree days represent a versatile climatic indicator which is commonly used in building energy performance analysis. In this context, the present paper proposes a simple dynamic model to simulate heating/cooling energy consumption in buildings. The model consists of several transient energy balance equations for external walls and internal air according to a lumped-capacitance approach and it has been implemented utilizing the Matlab/Simulink® platform. Results are validated by comparison to the outcomes of leading software packages, TRNSYS and Energy Plus. By using the above mentioned model, energy consumption for heating/cooling is analyzed in different locations, showing that for low degree days the inertia effect assumes a paramount importance, affecting the common linear behavior of the building consumption against the standard degree days, especially for cooling energy demand. Cooling energy demand at low cooling degree days (CDDs) is deeply analyzed, highlighting that in this situation other factors, such as solar irradiation, have an important role. To take into account these effects, a correction to CDD is proposed, demonstrating that by considering all the contributions the linear relationship between energy consumption and degree days is maintained

  17. A revival of the autoregressive distributed lag model in estimating energy demand relationships

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bentzen, J.; Engsted, T.

    1999-07-01

    The findings in the recent energy economics literature that energy economic variables are non-stationary, have led to an implicit or explicit dismissal of the standard autoregressive distribution lag (ARDL) model in estimating energy demand relationships. However, Pesaran and Shin (1997) show that the ARDL model remains valid when the underlying variables are non-stationary, provided the variables are co-integrated. In this paper we use the ARDL approach to estimate a demand relationship for Danish residential energy consumption, and the ARDL estimates are compared to the estimates obtained using co-integration techniques and error-correction models (ECM's). It turns out that both quantitatively and qualitatively, the ARDL approach and the co-integration/ECM approach give very similar results. (au)

  18. A revival of the autoregressive distributed lag model in estimating energy demand relationships

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bentzen, J; Engsted, T

    1999-07-01

    The findings in the recent energy economics literature that energy economic variables are non-stationary, have led to an implicit or explicit dismissal of the standard autoregressive distribution lag (ARDL) model in estimating energy demand relationships. However, Pesaran and Shin (1997) show that the ARDL model remains valid when the underlying variables are non-stationary, provided the variables are co-integrated. In this paper we use the ARDL approach to estimate a demand relationship for Danish residential energy consumption, and the ARDL estimates are compared to the estimates obtained using co-integration techniques and error-correction models (ECM's). It turns out that both quantitatively and qualitatively, the ARDL approach and the co-integration/ECM approach give very similar results. (au)

  19. Renewable energy: GIS-based mapping and modelling of potentials and demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blaschke, Thomas; Biberacher, Markus; Schardinger, Ingrid.; Gadocha, Sabine; Zocher, Daniela

    2010-05-01

    Worldwide demand of energy is growing and will continue to do so for the next decades to come. IEA has estimated that global primary energy demand will increase by 40 - 50% from 2003 to 2030 (IEA, 2005) depending on the fact whether currently contemplated energy policies directed towards energy-saving and fuel-diversification will be effectuated. The demand for Renewable Energy (RE) is undenied but clear figures and spatially disaggregated potentials for the various energy carriers are very rare. Renewable Energies are expected to reduce pressures on the environment and CO2 production. In several studies in Germany (North-Rhine Westphalia and Lower Saxony) and Austria we studied the current and future pattern of energy production and consumption. In this paper we summarize and benchmark different RE carriers, namely wind, biomass (forest and non-forest, geothermal, solar and hydro power. We demonstrate that GIS-based scalable and flexible information delivery sheds new light on the prevailing metaphor of GIS as a processing engine serving needs of users more on demand rather than through ‘maps on stock'. We compare our finding with those of several energy related EU-FP7 projects in Europe where we have been involved - namely GEOBENE, REACCESS, ENERGEO - and demonstrate that more and more spatial data will become available together with tools that allow experts to do their own analyses and to communicate their results in ways which policy makers and the public can readily understand and use as a basis for their own actions. Geoportals in combination with standardised geoprocessing today supports the older vision of an automated presentation of data on maps, and - if user privileges are given - facilities to interactively manipulate these maps. We conclude that the most critical factor in modelling energy supply and demand remain the economic valuation of goods and services, especially the forecast of future end consumer energy costs.

  20. Modeling of Energy Demand in the Greenhouse Using PSO-GA Hybrid Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiaoliao Chen

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Modeling of energy demand in agricultural greenhouse is very important to maintain optimum inside environment for plant growth and energy consumption decreasing. This paper deals with the identification parameters for physical model of energy demand in the greenhouse using hybrid particle swarm optimization and genetic algorithms technique (HPSO-GA. HPSO-GA is developed to estimate the indistinct internal parameters of greenhouse energy model, which is built based on thermal balance. Experiments were conducted to measure environment and energy parameters in a cooling greenhouse with surface water source heat pump system, which is located in mid-east China. System identification experiments identify model parameters using HPSO-GA such as inertias and heat transfer constants. The performance of HPSO-GA on the parameter estimation is better than GA and PSO. This algorithm can improve the classification accuracy while speeding up the convergence process and can avoid premature convergence. System identification results prove that HPSO-GA is reliable in solving parameter estimation problems for modeling the energy demand in the greenhouse.

  1. Monitoring urban transport air pollution and energy demand in Rawalpindi and Islamabad using leap model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shabbir, Rabia; Ahmad, Sheikh Saeed [Department of Environmental Sciences, Fatima Jinnah Women University, Rawalpindi (Pakistan)

    2010-05-15

    A research associated with urban transportation was carried out in Rawalpindi and Islamabad to analyze the status of emission of air pollutants and energy demands. The study included a discussion of past trends and future scenarios in order to reduce the future emissions. A simple model of passenger transport has been developed using computer based software called Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP). The LEAP model was used to estimate total energy demand and the vehicular emissions for the base year 2000 and extrapolated till 2030 for the future predictions. Transport database in Rawalpindi and Islamabad, together with fuel consumption values for the vehicle types and emission factors of NO{sub x}, SO{sub 2} and PM{sub 10} corresponding to the actual vehicle types, formed the basis of the transport demand, energy consumption and total emission calculations. Apart from base scenario, the model was run under three alternative scenarios to study the impact of different urban transport policy initiatives that would reduce energy demand and emissions in transport sector of Rawalpindi and Islamabad. The prime objective was to arrive at an optimal transport policy, which limits the future growth of fuel consumption as well as air pollution. (author)

  2. Energy demand patterns

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoffmann, L; Schipper, L; Meyers, S; Sathaye, J; Hara, Y

    1984-05-01

    This report brings together three papers on energy demand presented at the Energy Research Priorities Seminar held in Ottawa on 8-10 August 1983. The first paper suggests a framework in which energy demand studies may be organized if they are to be useful in policy-making. Disaggregation and the analysis of the chain of energy transformations are possible paths toward more stable and reliable parameters. The second paper points to another factor that leads to instability in sectoral parameters, namely a changeover from one technology to another; insofar as technologies producing a product (or service) vary in their energy intensity, a technological shift will also change the energy intensity of the product. Rapid technological change is characteristic of some sectors in developing countries, and may well account for the high aggregate GDP-elasticities of energy consumption observed. The third paper begins with estimates of these elasticities, which were greater than one for all the member countries of the Asian Development Bank in 1961-78. The high elasticities, together with extreme oil dependence, made them vulnerable to the drastic rise in the oil price after 1973. The author distinguishes three diverging patterns of national experience. The oil-surplus countries naturally gained from the rise in the oil price. Among oil-deficit countries, the newly industrialized countries expanded their exports so rapidly that the oil crisis no longer worried them. For the rest, balance of payments adjustments became a prime concern of policy. Whether they dealt with the oil bill by borrowing, by import substitution, or by demand restraint, the impact of energy on their growth was unmistakable. The paper also shows why energy-demand studies, and energy studies in general, deserve to be taken seriously. 16 refs., 4 figs., 18 tabs.

  3. Comprehensive Forecast of Urban Water-Energy Demand Based on a Neural Network Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ziyi Yin

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Water-energy nexus has been a popular topic of rese arch in recent years. The relationships between the demand for water resources and energy are intense and closely connected in urban areas. The primary, secondary, and tertiary industry gross domestic product (GDP, the total population, the urban population, annual precipitation, agricultural and industrial water consumption, tap water supply, the total discharge of industrial wastewater, the daily sewage treatment capacity, total and domestic electricity consumption, and the consumption of coal in industrial enterprises above the designed size were chosen as input indicators. A feedforward artificial neural network model (ANN based on a back-propagation algorithm with two hidden layers was constructed to combine urban water resources with energy demand. This model used historical data from 1991 to 2016 from Wuxi City, eastern China. Furthermore, a multiple linear regression model (MLR was introduced for comparison with the ANN. The results show the following: (a The mean relative error values of the forecast and historical urban water-energy demands are 1.58 % and 2.71%, respectively; (b The predicted water-energy demand value for 2020 is 4.843 billion cubic meters and 47.561 million tons of standard coal equivalent; (c The predicted water-energy demand value in the year 2030 is 5.887 billion cubic meters and 60.355 million tons of standard coal equivalent; (d Compared with the MLR, the ANN performed better in fitting training data, which achieved a more satisfactory accuracy and may provide a reference for urban water-energy supply planning decisions.

  4. Energy systems scenario modelling and long term forecasting of hourly electricity demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Poul Alberg Østergaard

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The Danish energy system is undergoing a transition from a system based on storable fossil fuels to a system based on fluctuating renewable energy sources. At the same time, more of and more of the energy system is becoming electrified; transportation, heating and fuel usage in industry and elsewhere. This article investigates the development of the Danish energy system in a medium year 2030 situation as well as in a long-term year 2050 situation. The analyses are based on scenario development by the Danish Climate Commission. In the short term, it is investigated what the effects will be of having flexible or inflexible electric vehicles and individual heat pumps, and in the long term it is investigated what the effects of changes in the load profiles due to changing weights of demand sectors are. The analyses are based on energy systems simulations using EnergyPLAN and demand forecasting using the Helena model. The results show that even with a limited short-term electric car fleet, these will have a significant effect on the energy system; the energy system’s ability to integrated wind power and the demand for condensing power generation capacity in the system. Charging patterns and flexibility have significant effects on this. Likewise, individual heat pumps may affect the system operation if they are equipped with heat storages. The analyses also show that the long-term changes in electricity demand curve profiles have little impact on the energy system performance. The flexibility given by heat pumps and electric vehicles in the long-term future overshadows any effects of changes in hourly demand curve profiles.

  5. Modelling the potential consequences of future worldwide biomass energy demand for the french forests and timber

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buongiorno, Joseph; Raunikar, Ronald; Zhu, Shushuai

    2011-01-01

    This article describes an investigation conducted, using a world model for the forestry and forest-based industries, on the effects of the current unpredictable changes in worldwide demand for biomass energy on this sector in France. Two contrasting scenarios are tested. The results are commented and the potential conflict between various would uses - workable timber, industrial timber and dendro-energy - is underscored. (authors)

  6. Worldwide transportation/energy demand, 1975-2000. Revised Variflex model projections

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ayres, R.U.; Ayres, L.W.

    1980-03-01

    The salient features of the transportation-energy relationships that characterize the world of 1975 are reviewed, and worldwide (34 countries) long-range transportation demand by mode to the year 2000 is reviewed. A worldwide model is used to estimate future energy demand for transportation. Projections made by the forecasting model indicate that in the year 2000, every region will be more dependent on petroleum for the transportation sector than it was in 1975. This report is intended to highlight certain trends and to suggest areas for further investigation. Forecast methodology and model output are described in detail in the appendices. The report is one of a series addressing transportation energy consumption; it supplants and replaces an earlier version published in October 1978 (ORNL/Sub-78/13536/1).

  7. An Integrated Modeling Approach for Forecasting Long-Term Energy Demand in Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Syed Aziz Ur Rehman; Yanpeng Cai; Rizwan Fazal; Gordhan Das Walasai; Nayyar Hussain Mirjat

    2017-01-01

    Energy planning and policy development require an in-depth assessment of energy resources and long-term demand forecast estimates. Pakistan, unfortunately, lacks reliable data on its energy resources as well do not have dependable long-term energy demand forecasts. As a result, the policy makers could not come up with an effective energy policy in the history of the country. Energy demand forecast has attained greatest ever attention in the perspective of growing population and diminishing fo...

  8. Transport energy demand modeling of South Korea using artificial neural network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geem, Zong Woo

    2011-01-01

    Artificial neural network models were developed to forecast South Korea's transport energy demand. Various independent variables, such as GDP, population, oil price, number of vehicle registrations, and passenger transport amount, were considered and several good models (Model 1 with GDP, population, and passenger transport amount; Model 2 with GDP, number of vehicle registrations, and passenger transport amount; and Model 3 with oil price, number of vehicle registrations, and passenger transport amount) were selected by comparing with multiple linear regression models. Although certain regression models obtained better R-squared values than neural network models, this does not guarantee the fact that the former is better than the latter because root mean squared errors of the former were much inferior to those of the latter. Also, certain regression model had structural weakness based on P-value. Instead, neural network models produced more robust results. Forecasted results using the neural network models show that South Korea will consume around 37 MTOE of transport energy in 2025. - Highlights: → Transport energy demand of South Korea was forecasted using artificial neural network. → Various variables (GDP, population, oil price, number of registrations, etc.) were considered. → Results of artificial neural network were compared with those of multiple linear regression.

  9. Comparison of Demand Response Performance with an EnergyPlus Model in a Low Energy Campus Building

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dudley, Junqiao Han; Black, Doug; Apte, Mike; Piette, Mary Ann; Berkeley, Pam

    2010-05-14

    We have studied a low energy building on a campus of the University of California. It has efficient heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, consisting of a dual-fan/dual-duct variable air volume (VAV) system. As a major building on the campus, it was included in two demand response (DR) events in the summers of 2008 and 2009. With chilled water supplied by thermal energy storage in the central plant, cooling fans played a critical role during DR events. In this paper, an EnergyPlus model of the building was developed and calibrated. We compared both whole-building and HVAC fan energy consumption with model predictions to understand why demand savings in 2009 were much lower than in 2008. We also used model simulations of the study building to assess pre-cooling, a strategy that has been shown to improve demand saving and thermal comfort in many types of building. This study indicates a properly calibrated EnergyPlus model can reasonably predict demand savings from DR events and can be useful for designing or optimizing DR strategies.

  10. Technology versus demand regulation - strategic modelling of transport, land use and energy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pfaffenbichler, Paul C.; Shepherd, Simon

    2007-01-01

    Scarcity of oil supply is seen as one of the biggest future threats to our society. The recently finished EU-funded research project STEPs (Scenarios for the Transport System and Energy Supply and their Potential Effects) had the objective to develop, compare and assess possible scenarios for the transport system and the energy supply of the future taking into account the effects on the environment as well as economic and social viability. Two energy supply scenarios, one with and one without scarcity of oil supply, form the basis of STEPs. Furthermore two different policies are suggested to tackle the problem of scarcity of oil: a technology driven strategy and a demand regulation based strategy. This paper presents the application of these scenarios and strategies to the strategic Systems Dynamics model MARS (Metropolitan Activity Relocation Simulator) covering the metropolitan area of Edinburgh. Scenario indicators like car ownership, fleet composition and fuel resource costs were provided by the European model ASTRA and the world energy market model POLES. The first part of the paper summarises the scenarios and strategies in detail. The second part describes briefly some basics of Systems Dynamics as well as the main mechanisms underlying the model MARS. Finally the results of the scenario simulations are presented. The main outcome is that a demand regulation policy is more effective in reducing the consumption of non-renewable energy resources than a technology driven policy

  11. Design of demand side response model in energy internet demonstration park

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Q.; Liu, D. N.

    2017-08-01

    The implementation of demand side response can bring a lot of benefits to the power system, users and society, but there are still many problems in the actual operation. Firstly, this paper analyses the current situation and problems of demand side response. On this basis, this paper analyses the advantages of implementing demand side response in the energy Internet demonstration park. Finally, the paper designs three kinds of feasible demand side response modes in the energy Internet demonstration park.

  12. Modeling and forecasting energy consumption in China: Implications for Chinese energy demand and imports in 2020

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adams, F. Gerard; Shachmurove, Yochanan

    2008-01-01

    The Chinese economy is in a stage of energy transition: from low efficiency solid fuels to oil, gas, and electric power, from agriculture to urbanization and industrialization, from heavy industry to lighter and high tech industry, from low motorization to rapid growth of the motor vehicle population. Experts fear that continued rapid economic growth in China will translate into a massive need to expand imports of oil, coal, and gas. We build an econometric model of the Chinese energy economy based on the energy balance. We use that model to forecast Chinese energy consumption and imports to 2020. The study suggests that China will, indeed, require rapidly growing imports of oil, coal, and gas. This growth is not so sensitive to the rate of economic growth as to increases in motorization. It can be offset, but probably only in small part, by increasing domestic energy production or by improvements in the efficiency of use, particularly in the production of electric power. (author)

  13. Modelling energy demand for a fleet of hydrogen-electric vehicles interacting with a clean energy hub

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Syed, F.; Fowler, M.; Wan, D.; Maniyali, Y.

    2009-01-01

    This paper details the development of an energy demand model for a hydrogen-electric vehicle fleet and the modelling of the fleet interactions with a clean energy hub. The approach taken is to model the architecture and daily operation of every individual vehicle in the fleet. A generic architecture was developed based on understanding gained from existing detailed models used in vehicle powertrain design, with daily operation divided into two periods: charging and travelling. During the charging period, the vehicle charges its Electricity Storage System (ESS) and refills its Hydrogen Storage System (HSS), and during the travelling period, the vehicle depletes the ESS and HSS based on distance travelled. Daily travel distance is generated by a stochastic model and is considered an input to the fleet model. The modelling of a clean energy hub is also presented. The clean energy hub functions as an interface between electricity supply and the energy demand (i.e. hydrogen and electricity) of the vehicle fleet. Finally, a sample case is presented to demonstrate the use of the fleet model and its implications on clean energy hub sizing. (author)

  14. An Integrated Decentralized Energy Planning Model considering Demand-Side Management and Environmental Measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seyed Mahmood Kazemi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Decentralized energy planning (DEP is looked upon as an indisputable opportunity for energy planning of villages, isolated islands, and far spots. Nonetheless, at this decentralized planning level, the value of demand-side resources is not fairly examined, despite enjoying great advantages. Therefore, the core task of this study is to integrate demand-side resources, as a competing solution against supply-side alternatives, with decentralized energy planning decisions and demonstrate the rewarding role it plays. Moreover, sustainability indicators (SIs are incorporated into DEP attempts in order to attain sustainable development. It is emphasized that unless these indicators are considered at lower energy planning levels, they will be ignored at higher planning levels as well. Hence, to the best knowledge of the authors, this study for the first time takes into account greenhouse gas (GHG emissions produced by utilization of renewable energies in DEP optimization models. To address the issues mentioned previously, multiobjective linear programming model along with a min-max goal programming approach is employed. Finally, using data taken from the literature, the model is solved, and the obtained results are discussed. The results show that DSM policies have remarkably contributed to significant improvements especially in terms of environmental indicators.

  15. Energy demand futures by global models : Projections of a complex system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Edelenbosch, O.Y.

    2018-01-01

    The energy demand sectors industry, transport and buildings are together directly responsible for around 51 % of the global energy-related CO2 emissions and indirectly drive the emissions in the energy supply sectors. The demand sectors are characterized by many subsectors, technologies,

  16. Reliability constrained decision model for energy service provider incorporating demand response programs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahboubi-Moghaddam, Esmaeil; Nayeripour, Majid; Aghaei, Jamshid

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • The operation of Energy Service Providers (ESPs) in electricity markets is modeled. • Demand response as the cost-effective solution is used for energy service provider. • The market price uncertainty is modeled using the robust optimization technique. • The reliability of the distribution network is embedded into the framework. • The simulation results demonstrate the benefits of robust framework for ESPs. - Abstract: Demand response (DR) programs are becoming a critical concept for the efficiency of current electric power industries. Therefore, its various capabilities and barriers have to be investigated. In this paper, an effective decision model is presented for the strategic behavior of energy service providers (ESPs) to demonstrate how to participate in the day-ahead electricity market and how to allocate demand in the smart distribution network. Since market price affects DR and vice versa, a new two-step sequential framework is proposed, in which unit commitment problem (UC) is solved to forecast the expected locational marginal prices (LMPs), and successively DR program is applied to optimize the total cost of providing energy for the distribution network customers. This total cost includes the cost of purchased power from the market and distributed generation (DG) units, incentive cost paid to the customers, and compensation cost of power interruptions. To obtain compensation cost, the reliability evaluation of the distribution network is embedded into the framework using some innovative constraints. Furthermore, to consider the unexpected behaviors of the other market participants, the LMP prices are modeled as the uncertainty parameters using the robust optimization technique, which is more practical compared to the conventional stochastic approach. The simulation results demonstrate the significant benefits of the presented framework for the strategic performance of ESPs.

  17. Demand for electrical energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergougnoux, J.; Fouquet, D.

    1983-01-01

    The different utilizations of electric energy are reviewed in the residential and tertiary sectors, in the industry. The competitive position of electricity in regard to other fuels has been strengthned by the sudden rise in the price of oil in 1973-1974 and 1979-1980. The evolution of electricity prices depended on the steps taken to adjust the electricity generation system. The substitution of electricity applications for hydro-carbons is an essential point of energy policy. The adjustment at all times, at least cost and most reliability, of the supply of electricity to the demand for it is a major problem in the design and operation of electric systems. National demand for power at a given moment is extremely diversified. Electricity consumption presents daily and seasonal variations, and variations according to the different sectors. Forecasting power requirements is for any decision on operation or investment relating to an electrical system. Load management is desirable (prices according to the customers, optional tariffs for ''peak-day withdrawal''). To conclude, prospects for increased electricity consumption are discussed [fr

  18. Long term building energy demand for India: Disaggregating end use energy services in an integrated assessment modeling framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Eom, Jiyong; Clarke, Leon E.; Shukla, Priyadarshi R.

    2014-01-01

    With increasing population, income, and urbanization, meeting the energy service demands for the building sector will be a huge challenge for Indian energy policy. Although there is broad consensus that the Indian building sector will grow and evolve over the coming century, there is little understanding of the potential nature of this evolution over the longer term. The present study uses a technologically detailed, service based building energy model nested in the long term, global, integrated assessment framework, GCAM, to produce scenarios of the evolution of the Indian buildings sector up through the end of the century. The results support the idea that as India evolves toward developed country per-capita income levels, its building sector will largely evolve to resemble those of the currently developed countries (heavy reliance on electricity both for increasing cooling loads and a range of emerging appliance and other plug loads), albeit with unique characteristics based on its climate conditions (cooling dominating heating and even more so with climate change), on fuel preferences that may linger from the present (for example, a preference for gas for cooking), and vestiges of its development path (including remnants of rural poor that use substantial quantities of traditional biomass). - Highlights: ► Building sector final energy demand in India will grow to over five times by century end. ► Space cooling and appliance services will grow substantially in the future. ► Energy service demands will be met predominantly by electricity and gas. ► Urban centers will face huge demand for floor space and building energy services. ► Carbon tax policy will have little effect on reducing building energy demands

  19. Implementation of a demand elasticity model in the building energy management system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ożadowicz, A.; Grela, J.; Babar, M.

    2016-01-01

    Nowadays, crucial part of modern Building Automation and Control Systems (BACS) is electric energy management. An active demand side management is very important feature of a Building Energy Management Systems (BEMS) integrated within the BACS. Since demand value changes in time and depends on

  20. Interactive energy demand analysis: The MAED-BI model application in the Shanxi province, PRC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vallance, B.; Weigkricht, E.

    1990-12-01

    Within the framework of collaboration between IIASA's Advanced Computer Applications project (ACA) and the State Science and Technology Commission of the People's Republic of China (SSTCC), ACA has developed an integrated set of information and decision support systems for development planning in China. The system is implemented for a case study of Shanxi, a province in north central China, which is very rich in coal and several mineral resources, but is still at an early stage of development, lacking, for example, a well developed infrastructure, or sufficient water. The decision support system combines several data bases, simulation, and optimization models, and AI components, in an easy-to-use expert system framework. A graphical and largely symbolic user interface, relying exclusively on menu techniques and providing extensive help and explain functions, makes access to the system's functions easy for the planner and decision maker, who might have little or no computer experience. The system is designed to assist the five-year planning process in Shanxi province, which, in the Chinese philosophy of integrated development, includes investment distribution, i.e., primarily economic, but also technological, resource, environmental, and socio-political considerations. The scope of the system, consequently, ranges from the macroeconomic level down to sectoral and more engineering-oriented models. In the Shanxi software system, modeling the energy demand (and also related investment, labor, and water requirements) of planned production schemes, or more generally, the economic and social development, is done with the help of the MAED-BI (Model for Analysis of Energy Demand in Basic Industries). Connection to a relational data base management system for the definition of input scenarios, and an interactive, graphical user interface for the selective display of model results, are important features. The model was developed in collaboration with the International Atomic

  1. Estimating Household Travel Energy Consumption in Conjunction with a Travel Demand Forecasting Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garikapati, Venu M. [Systems Analysis and Integration Section, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 15013 Denver West Parkway, Golden, CO 80401; You, Daehyun [Maricopa Association of Governments, 302 North First Avenue, Suite 300, Phoenix, AZ 85003; Zhang, Wenwen [School of City and Regional Planning, Center for Geographic Information Systems, Georgia Institute of Technology, 760 Spring Street, Suite 230, Atlanta, GA 30308; Pendyala, Ram M. [School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment, Arizona State University, 660 South College Avenue, Tempe, AZ 85281; Guhathakurta, Subhrajit [School of City and Regional Planning, Center for Geographic Information Systems, Georgia Institute of Technology, 760 Spring Street, Suite 230, Atlanta, GA 30308; Brown, Marilyn A. [School of Public Policy, 685 Cherry Street, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30332; Dilkina, Bistra [School of Computational Science and Engineering, 266 Ferst Drive, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30332

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for the calculation of the consumption of household travel energy at the level of the traffic analysis zone (TAZ) in conjunction with information that is readily available from a standard four-step travel demand model system. This methodology embeds two algorithms. The first provides a means of allocating non-home-based trips to residential zones that are the source of such trips, whereas the second provides a mechanism for incorporating the effects of household vehicle fleet composition on fuel consumption. The methodology is applied to the greater Atlanta, Georgia, metropolitan region in the United States and is found to offer a robust mechanism for calculating the footprint of household travel energy at the level of the individual TAZ; this mechanism makes possible the study of variations in the energy footprint across space. The travel energy footprint is strongly correlated with the density of the built environment, although socioeconomic differences across TAZs also likely contribute to differences in travel energy footprints. The TAZ-level calculator of the footprint of household travel energy can be used to analyze alternative futures and relate differences in the energy footprint to differences in a number of contributing factors and thus enables the design of urban form, formulation of policy interventions, and implementation of awareness campaigns that may produce more-sustainable patterns of energy consumption.

  2. The General Evolving Model for Energy Supply-Demand Network with Local-World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Mei; Han, Dun; Li, Dandan; Fang, Cuicui

    2013-10-01

    In this paper, two general bipartite network evolving models for energy supply-demand network with local-world are proposed. The node weight distribution, the "shifting coefficient" and the scaling exponent of two different kinds of nodes are presented by the mean-field theory. The numerical results of the node weight distribution and the edge weight distribution are also investigated. The production's shifted power law (SPL) distribution of coal enterprises and the installed capacity's distribution of power plants in the US are obtained from the empirical analysis. Numerical simulations and empirical results are given to verify the theoretical results.

  3. Automation of energy demand forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siddique, Sanzad

    Automation of energy demand forecasting saves time and effort by searching automatically for an appropriate model in a candidate model space without manual intervention. This thesis introduces a search-based approach that improves the performance of the model searching process for econometrics models. Further improvements in the accuracy of the energy demand forecasting are achieved by integrating nonlinear transformations within the models. This thesis introduces machine learning techniques that are capable of modeling such nonlinearity. Algorithms for learning domain knowledge from time series data using the machine learning methods are also presented. The novel search based approach and the machine learning models are tested with synthetic data as well as with natural gas and electricity demand signals. Experimental results show that the model searching technique is capable of finding an appropriate forecasting model. Further experimental results demonstrate an improved forecasting accuracy achieved by using the novel machine learning techniques introduced in this thesis. This thesis presents an analysis of how the machine learning techniques learn domain knowledge. The learned domain knowledge is used to improve the forecast accuracy.

  4. Global energy demand outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hatcher, S.R.

    1999-01-01

    Perhaps the most compelling issue the world will face in the next century is the quality of life of the increasing populations of the poorer regions of the world. Energy is the key to generating wealth and protecting the environment. Today, most of the energy generated comes from fossil fuels and there should be enough for an increase in consumption over the next half century. However, this is likely to be impacted by the Kyoto Protocol on carbon dioxide emissions. Various authoritative studies lead to a global energy demand projection of between 850 to 1070 EJ per year in the mid-21 st century, which is nearly three times as much as the world uses today. The studies further indicate that, unless there is a major thrust by governments to create incentives and/or to levy heavy taxes, the use of fossil fuels will continue to increase and there will be a major increase in carbon dioxide emissions globally. Most of the increase will come from the newly industrializing countries which do not have the technology or financial resources to install non-carbon energy sources such as nuclear power, and the new renewable energy technologies. The real issue for the nuclear industry is investment cost. Developing countries, in particular will have difficulty in raising capital for energy projects with a high installed cost and will have difficulties in raising large blocks of capital. A reduction in investment costs of the order of 50% with a short construction schedule is in order if nuclear power is to compete and contribute significantly to energy supply and the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions. Current nuclear power plants and methods are simply not suited to the production of plants that will compete in this situation. Mass production designs are needed to get the benefits of cost reduction. Water cooled reactors are well demonstrated and positioned to achieve the cost reduction necessary but only via some radical thinking on the part of the designers. The reactors of

  5. Guidelines for forecasting energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sonino, T.

    1976-11-01

    Four methodologies for forecasting energy demand are reviewed here after considering the role of energy in the economy and the analysis of energy use in different economic sectors. The special case of Israel is considered throughout, and some forecasts for energy demands in the year 2000 are presented. An energy supply mix that may be considered feasible is proposed. (author)

  6. NEMO. Netherlands Energy demand MOdel. A top-down model based on bottom-up information

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koopmans, C.C.; Te Velde, D.W.; Groot, W.; Hendriks, J.H.A.

    1999-06-01

    The title model links energy use to other production factors, (physical) production, energy prices, technological trends and government policies. It uses a 'putty-semiputty' vintage production structure, in which new investments, adaptations to existing capital goods (retrofit) and 'good-housekeeping' are discerned. Price elasticities are relatively large in the long term and small in the short term. Most predictions of energy use are based on either econometric models or on 'bottom-up information', i.e. disaggregated lists of technical possibilities for and costs of saving energy. Typically, one predicts more energy-efficiency improvements using bottom-up information than using econometric ('top-down') models. We bridged this so-called 'energy-efficiency gap' by designing our macro/meso model NEMO in such a way that we can use bottom-up (micro) information to estimate most model parameters. In our view, reflected in NEMO, the energy-efficiency gap arises for two reasons. The first is that firms and households use a fairly high discount rate of 15% when evaluating the profitability of energy-efficiency improvements. The second is that our bottom-up information ('ICARUS') for most economic sectors does not (as NEMO does) take account of the fact that implementation of new, energy-efficient technology in capital stock takes place only gradually. Parameter estimates for 19 sectors point at a long-term technological energy efficiency improvement trend in Netherlands final energy use of 0.8% per year. The long-term price elasticity is estimated to be 0.29. These values are comparable to other studies based on time series data. Simulations of the effects of the oil price shocks in the seventies and the subsequent fall of oil prices show that the NEMO's price elasticities are consistent with historical data. However, the present pace at which new technologies become available (reflected in NEMO) appears to be lower than in the seventies and eighties. This suggests that it

  7. Aggregated Demand Modelling Including Distributed Generation, Storage and Demand Response

    OpenAIRE

    Marzooghi, Hesamoddin; Hill, David J.; Verbic, Gregor

    2014-01-01

    It is anticipated that penetration of renewable energy sources (RESs) in power systems will increase further in the next decades mainly due to environmental issues. In the long term of several decades, which we refer to in terms of the future grid (FG), balancing between supply and demand will become dependent on demand actions including demand response (DR) and energy storage. So far, FG feasibility studies have not considered these new demand-side developments for modelling future demand. I...

  8. Residential-energy-demand modeling and the NIECS data base: an evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cowing, T.G.; Dubin, J.A.; McFadden, D.

    1982-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to evaluate the 1978-1979 National Interim Energy Consumption Survey (NIECS) data base in terms of its usefulness for estimating residential energy demand models based on household appliance choice and utilization decisions. The NIECS contains detailed energy usage information at the household level for 4081 households during the April 1978 to March 1979 period. Among the data included are information on the structural and thermal characteristics of the housing unit, demographic characteristics of the household, fuel usage, appliance characteristics, and actual energy consumption. The survey covers the four primary residential fuels-electricity, natural gas, fuel oil, and liquefied petroleum gas - and includes detailed information on recent household conservation and retrofit activities. Section II contains brief descriptions of the major components of the NIECS data set. Discussions are included on the sample frame and the imputation procedures used in NIECS. There are also two extensive tables, giving detailed statistical and other information on most of the non-vehicle NIECS variables. Section III contains an assessment of the NIECS data, focusing on four areas: measurement error, sample design, imputation problems, and additional data needed to estimate appliance choice/use models. Section IV summarizes and concludes the report.

  9. The long-term forecast of Taiwan's energy supply and demand: LEAP model application

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huang, Yophy, E-mail: yohuanghaka@gmail.com [Deptartment of Public Finance and Tax Administration, National Taipei College of Business, Taipei Taiwan, 10051 (China); Bor, Yunchang Jeffrey [Deptartment of Economics, Chinese Culture University, Yang-Ming-Shan, Taipei, 11114, Taiwan (China); Peng, Chieh-Yu [Statistics Department, Taoyuan District Court, No. 1 Fazhi Road, Taoyuan City 33053, Taiwan (China)

    2011-11-15

    The long-term forecasting of energy supply and demand is an extremely important topic of fundamental research in Taiwan due to Taiwan's lack of natural resources, dependence on energy imports, and the nation's pursuit of sustainable development. In this article, we provide an overview of energy supply and demand in Taiwan, and a summary of the historical evolution and current status of its energy policies, as background to a description of the preparation and application of a Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model of Taiwan's energy sector. The Taiwan LEAP model is used to compare future energy demand and supply patterns, as well as greenhouse gas emissions, for several alternative scenarios of energy policy and energy sector evolution. Results of scenarios featuring 'business-as-usual' policies, aggressive energy-efficiency improvement policies, and on-schedule retirement of Taiwan's three existing nuclear plants are provided and compared, along with sensitivity cases exploring the impacts of lower economic growth assumptions. A concluding section provides an interpretation of the implications of model results for future energy and climate policies in Taiwan. - Research Highlights: > The LEAP model is useful for international energy policy comparison. > Nuclear power plants have significant, positive impacts on CO{sub 2} emission. > The most effective energy policy is to adopt demand-side management. > Reasonable energy pricing provides incentives for energy efficiency and conservation. > Financial crisis has less impact on energy demand than aggressive energy policy.

  10. Modelling the impact of urban form on household energy demand and related CO2 emissions in the Greater Dublin Region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Xiaochen; Sweeney, John

    2012-01-01

    This study aims to investigate the relationship between household space heating energy use and urban form (land use characteristics) for the Greater Dublin Region. The geographical distributions of household energy use are evaluated at the Enumeration Districts (ED) level based on the building thermal balance model. Moreover, it estimates the impact of possible factors on the household space heating consumption. Results illustrate that the distribution profile of dwellings is a significant factor related to overall heating energy demand and individual dwelling energy consumption for space heating. Residents living in compact dwellings with small floor areas consume less energy for space heating than residents living in dwellings with big floor areas. Moreover, domestic heating energy demand per household was also estimated for two extreme urban development scenarios: the compact city scenario and the dispersed scenario. The results illustrate that the compact city scenario is likely to decrease the domestic heating energy consumption per household by 16.2% compared with the dispersed city scenario. Correspondingly, the energy-related CO 2 emissions could be significantly decreased by compact city scenario compared with the dispersed city scenario. - Highlights: ► A method was developed to investigate urban form impacts on energy demand. ► This study estimates impacts of possible factors on the household energy consumption. ► Household heating energy demand is sensitive to dwelling distribution profile. ► The compact case could reduce domestic energy demand compared with the dispersed case.

  11. Development of an expert system in econometrics. Application to energy demand modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fauveau, A.

    1993-01-01

    The proper use of econometric softwares requires both statistical and economic skills. The main objective of this thesis is to provide the users of regression programs with assistance in the process of regression analysis by means of expert system technology. We first built an expert system providing general econometric strategy. The running principle of the program is based on a ''estimation - hypothesis check - specification improvement'' cycle. Its econometric expertise is a consistent set of statistical technics and analysis rules for estimating one equation. Then, we considered the inclusion of the economic knowledge required to produce a consistent analysis; we focused on energy demand modelling. The economic knowledge base is independent from the econometric rules, this allow us to update it easily. (author)

  12. Residential energy demand in Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arouca, M.; Gomes, F.M.; Rosa, L.P.

    1981-01-01

    The energy demand in Brazilian residential sector is studied, discussing the methodology for analyzing this demand from some ideas suggested, for developing an adequate method to brazilian characteristics. The residential energy consumption of several fuels in Brazil is also presented, including a comparative evaluation with the United States and France. (author)

  13. Comparing projections of industrial energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions in long-term energy models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Edelenbosch, O. Y.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/412493373; Kermeli, K.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/411260553; Crijns-Graus, W.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/308005015; Worrell, E.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/106856715; Bibas, R.; Fais, B.; Fujimori, S.; Kyle, P.; Sano, F.; van Vuuren, Detlef|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X

    2017-01-01

    The industry sector is a major energy consumer and GHG emitter. Effective climate change mitigation strategies will require a significant reduction of industrial emissions. To better understand the variations in the projected industrial pathways for both baseline and mitigation scenarios, we compare

  14. Energy demand modelling in transport for Ukrainian national energy strategy creation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kravchuk, V A; Dounaev, V [Victoria Software developers Group (Ukraine); Perchuk, V [Inst. of Energy Saving Problems (Ukraine)

    1996-12-01

    Among the main functions of the Ukrainian Government there are creation and implementation of economy and social development strategy for Ukraine, coordination of all economy sectors` activity, including the most important long-term solutions by means of which the Government aspires to satisfy the public interests. These tasks are complicated by the current state of economy, that is characterized by the ineffective structure serviced the former Soviet Union as a whole and by the intensive decline because of separation from the USSR, breaking of old economic ties, and attempts to proceed to market relations at all levels. Fuel and energy sectors are the most important components of the Ukrainian economy and key factors of industry`s and population`s vital activity providing. (EG)

  15. Structuring energy supply and demand networks in a general equilibrium model to simulate global warming control strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, S.; Veselka, T.D.; Cirillo, R.R.

    1991-01-01

    Global warming control strategies which mandate stringent caps on emissions of greenhouse forcing gases can substantially alter a country's demand, production, and imports of energy products. Although there is a large degree of uncertainty when attempting to estimate the potential impact of these strategies, insights into the problem can be acquired through computer model simulations. This paper presents one method of structuring a general equilibrium model, the ENergy and Power Evaluation Program/Global Climate Change (ENPEP/GCC), to simulate changes in a country's energy supply and demand balance in response to global warming control strategies. The equilibrium model presented in this study is based on the principle of decomposition, whereby a large complex problem is divided into a number of smaller submodules. Submodules simulate energy activities and conversion processes such as electricity production. These submodules are linked together to form an energy supply and demand network. Linkages identify energy and fuel flows among various activities. Since global warming control strategies can have wide reaching effects, a complex network was constructed. The network represents all energy production, conversion, transportation, distribution, and utilization activities. The structure of the network depicts interdependencies within and across economic sectors and was constructed such that energy prices and demand responses can be simulated. Global warming control alternatives represented in the network include: (1) conservation measures through increased efficiency; and (2) substitution of fuels that have high greenhouse gas emission rates with fuels that have lower emission rates. 6 refs., 4 figs., 4 tabs

  16. Energy demand: Facts and trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chateau, B; Lapillonne, B

    1982-01-01

    The relationship between economic development and energy demand is investigated in this book. It gives a detailed analysis of the energy demand dynamics in industrialized countries and compares the past evolution of the driving factors behind energy demand by sector and by end-uses for the main OECD countries: residential sector (space heating, water heating, cooking...), tertiary sector, passenger and goods transport by mode, and industry (with particular emphasis on the steel and cement industry). This analysis leads to a more precise understanding of the long-term trends of energy demand; highlighting the influence on these trends of energy prices, especially after the oil price shocks, and of the type of economic development pattern.

  17. Pseudo dynamic transitional modeling of building heating energy demand using artificial neural network

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paudel, S.; Elmtiri, M.; Kling, W.L.; Corre, le O.; Lacarriere, B.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents the building heating demand prediction model with occupancy profile and operational heating power level characteristics in short time horizon (a couple of days) using artificial neural network. In addition, novel pseudo dynamic transitional model is introduced, which consider

  18. Exploring energy consumption and demand in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fan, Ying; Xia, Yan

    2012-01-01

    China has been experiencing industrialization and urbanization since reform and opening of its economy in 1978. Energy consumption in the country has featured issues such as a coal-dominated energy mix, low energy efficiency and high emissions. Thus, it is of great importance to explore the factors driving the increase in energy consumption in the past two decades and estimate the potential for decreasing energy demands in the future. In this paper a hybrid energy input–output model is used to decompose driving factors to identify how these factors impact changes in energy intensity. A modified RAS approach is applied to project energy requirements in a BAU scenario and an alternative scenario. The results show that energy input mix, industry structure and technology improvements have major influences on energy demand. Energy demand in China will continue to increase at a rapid rate if the economy develops as in the past decades, and is projected to reach 4.7 billion tce in 2020. However, the huge potential for a decrease cannot be neglected, since growth could be better by adjusting the energy mix and industrial structure and enhancing technology improvements. The total energy demand could be less than 4.0 billion tce in 2020. -- Highlights: ► In this paper a hybrid energy input–output model is used to decompose driving factors to China’s energy intensity change. ► A modified RAS approach is applied to project energy requirements in China. ► The results show that energy input mix, industry structure and technology improvements have major influences on energy demand. ► Energy demand in China will reach 4.7 billion ton in 2020 if the economy develops as in the past decades. ► There is a huge potential for a decrease of energy demand by adjusting the energy mix and industrial structure and enhancing technology improvements.

  19. Input-output and energy demand models for Ireland: Data collection report. Part 1: EXPLOR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Henry, E W; Scott, S

    1981-01-01

    Data are presented in support of EXPLOR, an input-output economic model for Ireland. The data follow the listing of exogenous data-sets used by Batelle in document X11/515/77. Data are given for 1974, 1980, and 1985 and consist of household consumption, final demand-production, and commodity prices. (ACR)

  20. Temperature Effect on Energy Demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Young Duk [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

    1999-03-01

    We provide various estimates of temperature effect for accommodating seasonality in energy demand, particularly natural gas demand. We exploit temperature response and monthly temperature distribution to estimate the temperature effect on natural gas demand. Both local and global smoothed temperature responses are estimated from empirical relationship between hourly temperature and hourly energy consumption data during the sample period (1990 - 1996). Monthly temperature distribution estimates are obtained by kernel density estimation from temperature dispersion within a month. We integrate temperature response and monthly temperature density over all the temperatures in the sample period to estimate temperature effect on energy demand. Then, estimates of temperature effect are compared between global and local smoothing methods. (author). 15 refs., 14 figs., 2 tabs.

  1. Commercial demand for energy: a disaggregated approach. [Model validation for 1970-1975; forecasting to 2000

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jackson, J.R.; Cohn, S.; Cope, J.; Johnson, W.S.

    1978-04-01

    This report describes the structure and forecasting accuracy of a disaggregated model of commercial energy use recently developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The model forecasts annual commercial energy use by ten building types, five end uses, and four fuel types. Both economic (utilization rate, fuel choice, capital-energy substitution) and technological factors (equipment efficiency, thermal characteristics of buildings) are explicitly represented in the model. Model parameters are derived from engineering and econometric analysis. The model is then validated by simulating commercial energy use over the 1970--1975 time period. The model performs well both with respect to size of forecast error and ability to predict turning points. The model is then used to evaluate the energy-use implications of national commercial buildings standards based on the ASHRAE 90-75 recommendations. 10 figs., 12 tables, 14 refs.

  2. Demand Modelling in Telecommunications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Chvalina

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This article analyses the existing possibilities for using Standard Statistical Methods and Artificial Intelligence Methods for a short-term forecast and simulation of demand in the field of telecommunications. The most widespread methods are based on Time Series Analysis. Nowadays, approaches based on Artificial Intelligence Methods, including Neural Networks, are booming. Separate approaches will be used in the study of Demand Modelling in Telecommunications, and the results of these models will be compared with actual guaranteed values. Then we will examine the quality of Neural Network models

  3. Dynamic modelling of energy demand: A guided tour through the jungle of unit roots and co-integration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engsted, T; Bentzen, J

    1997-04-01

    This paper provides a detailed survey of the recent literature on unit roots and co-integration, and relates the concepts to the estimation of energy demand relationships. The special features and properties of non-stationary time-series are discussed, including the relevant asymptotic theory. The most often used tests for unit roots and co-integration - and various techniques for estimating co-integration relationships - are described, and the connection between co-integration and error-correction models is explored. Further, we revisit the autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) model, which is very often used in energy demand studies, and state under which conditions this model provides a valid framework for estimating income- and price- elasticities, when time-series are non-stationary. Throughout, tests and estimation techniques are illustrated using data on Danish energy consumption, prices, income, and temperature. (au) 71 refs.

  4. Energy demand and population change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, E L; Edmonds, J A

    1981-09-01

    During the post World War 2 years energy consumption has grown 136% while population grew about 51%; per capita consumption of energy expanded, therefore, about 60%. For a given population size, demographic changes mean an increase in energy needs; for instance the larger the group of retirement age people, the smaller their energy needs than are those for a younger group. Estimates indicate that by the year 2000 the energy impact will be toward higher per capita consumption with 60% of the population in the 19-61 age group of workers. Rising female labor force participation will increase the working group even more; it has also been found that income and energy grow at a proportional rate. The authors predict that gasoline consumption within the US will continue to rise with availability considering the larger number of female drivers and higher per capita incomes. The flow of illegal aliens (750,000/year) will have a major impact on income and will use greater amounts of energy than can be expected. A demographic change which will lower energy demands will be the slowdown of the rate of household formation caused by the falling number of young adults. The response of energy demand to price changes is small and slow but incomes play a larger role as does the number of personal automobiles and social changes affecting household formation. Households, commercial space, transportation, and industry are part of every demand analysis and population projections play a major role in determining these factors.

  5. Climate change and energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hengeveld, H.G.

    1991-01-01

    Climate and weather events affect energy demand in most economic sectors. Linear relationships exist between consumption and heating degree days, and peak electricity demand increases significantly during heat waves. The relative magnitudes of demand changes for a two times carbon dioxide concentration scenario are tabulated, illustrating heating degree days and cooling degree days for 5 Prairie locations. Irrigation, water management, crop seeding and harvesting and weed control are examples of climate-dependent agricultural activities involving significant energy use. The variability of summer season liquid fuel use in the agricultural sector in the Prairie provinces from 1984-1989 shows a relationship between agricultural energy use and regional climate fluctuations. 4 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab

  6. A demand response modeling for residential consumers in smart grid environment using game theory based energy scheduling algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Sofana Reka

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, demand response modeling scheme is proposed for residential consumers using game theory algorithm as Generalized Tit for Tat (GTFT Dominant Game based Energy Scheduler. The methodology is established as a work flow domain model between the utility and the user considering the smart grid framework. It exhibits an algorithm which schedules load usage by creating several possible tariffs for consumers such that demand is never raised. This can be done both individually and among multiple users of a community. The uniqueness behind the demand response proposed is that, the tariff is calculated for all hours and the load during the peak hours which can be rescheduled is shifted based on the Peak Average Ratio. To enable the vitality of the work simulation results of a general case of three domestic consumers are modeled extended to a comparative performance and evaluation with other algorithms and inference is analyzed.

  7. Controlling energy demand. What history?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beers, Marloes; Bonhomme, Noel; Bouvier, Yves; Pautard, Eric; Fevrier, Patrick; Lanthier, Pierre; Goyens, Valerie; Desama, Claude; Beltran, Alain

    2012-01-01

    this special dossier of the historical annals of electricity collection takes stock of the post 1970's history of energy demand control in industrialized countries: Abatement of energy dependence, the European Communities program of rational use of energy in the 1970's (Marloes Beers); The G7 and the energy cost: the limits of dialogue between industrialized countries - 1975-1985 (Noel Bonhomme); Saving more to consume more. The ambiguity of EDF's communication during the 'energy saving' era (Yves Bouvier); From rationing to energy saving certificates, 4 decades of electricity demand control in France and in the UK (eric Pautard); The French agency of environment and energy mastery (ADEME): between energy control and sustainable development (Patrick Fevrier); Hydro-Quebec and efficiency in household energy consumption, from 1990 to the present day (Pierre Lanthier); Control of energy consumption since the 1970's, the policy of rational use of energy in Walloon region - Belgium (Valerie Goyens); Electricity distribution in the new energy paradigm (Claude Desama); Conclusion (Alain Beltran)

  8. Matching energy sources to demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hendry, A.

    1979-01-01

    Diagrams show the current pattern of energy usage in Scotland; primary energy inputs; the various classes of user; the disposition of input energy in terms of useful and waste energy; an energy flow diagram showing the proportions of primary fuels taken by the various user groups and the proportions of useful energy derived by each. Within the S.S.E.B. area, installed capacity and maximum demand are shown for the present and projected future to the year 2000. A possible energy flow diagram for Scotland in 1996 is shown. The more efficient use of energy is discussed, with particular reference to the use of electricity. The primary energy inputs considered are oil, coal, nuclear, hydro and gas. (U.K.)

  9. Energy demand forecasting in Iranian metal industry using linear and nonlinear models based on evolutionary algorithms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piltan, Mehdi; Shiri, Hiva; Ghaderi, S.F.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Investigating different fitness functions for evolutionary algorithms in energy forecasting. ► Energy forecasting of Iranian metal industry by value added, energy prices, investment and employees. ► Using real-coded instead of binary-coded genetic algorithm decreases energy forecasting error. - Abstract: Developing energy-forecasting models is known as one of the most important steps in long-term planning. In order to achieve sustainable energy supply toward economic development and social welfare, it is required to apply precise forecasting model. Applying artificial intelligent models for estimation complex economic and social functions is growing up considerably in many researches recently. In this paper, energy consumption in industrial sector as one of the critical sectors in the consumption of energy has been investigated. Two linear and three nonlinear functions have been used in order to forecast and analyze energy in the Iranian metal industry, Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Genetic Algorithms (GAs) are applied to attain parameters of the models. The Real-Coded Genetic Algorithm (RCGA) has been developed based on real numbers, which is introduced as a new approach in the field of energy forecasting. In the proposed model, electricity consumption has been considered as a function of different variables such as electricity tariff, manufacturing value added, prevailing fuel prices, the number of employees, the investment in equipment and consumption in the previous years. Mean Square Error (MSE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) and Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) are the four functions which have been used as the fitness function in the evolutionary algorithms. The results show that the logarithmic nonlinear model using PSO algorithm with 1.91 error percentage has the best answer. Furthermore, the prediction of electricity consumption in industrial sector of Turkey and also Turkish industrial sector

  10. Reducing the operational energy demand in buildings using building information modeling tools and sustainability approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mojtaba Valinejad Shoubi

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available A sustainable building is constructed of materials that could decrease environmental impacts, such as energy usage, during the lifecycle of the building. Building Information Modeling (BIM has been identified as an effective tool for building performance analysis virtually in the design stage. The main aims of this study were to assess various combinations of materials using BIM and identify alternative, sustainable solutions to reduce operational energy consumption. The amount of energy consumed by a double story bungalow house in Johor, Malaysia, and assessments of alternative material configurations to determine the best energy performance were evaluated by using Revit Architecture 2012 and Autodesk Ecotect Analysis software to show which of the materials helped in reducing the operational energy use of the building to the greatest extent throughout its annual life cycle. At the end, some alternative, sustainable designs in terms of energy savings have been suggested.

  11. Strategic planning for minimizing CO2 emissions using LP model based on forecasted energy demand by PSO Algorithm and ANN

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yousefi, M.; Omid, M.; Rafiee, Sh. [Department of Agricultural Machinery Engineering, University of Tehran, Karaj (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Ghaderi, S. F. [Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2013-07-01

    Iran's primary energy consumption (PEC) was modeled as a linear function of five socioeconomic and meteorological explanatory variables using particle swarm optimization (PSO) and artificial neural networks (ANNs) techniques. Results revealed that ANN outperforms PSO model to predict test data. However, PSO technique is simple and provided us with a closed form expression to forecast PEC. Energy demand was forecasted by PSO and ANN using represented scenario. Finally, adapting about 10% renewable energy revealed that based on the developed linear programming (LP) model under minimum CO2 emissions, Iran will emit about 2520 million metric tons CO2 in 2025. The LP model indicated that maximum possible development of hydropower, geothermal and wind energy resources will satisfy the aim of minimization of CO2 emissions. Therefore, the main strategic policy in order to reduce CO2 emissions would be exploitation of these resources.

  12. Strategic planning for minimizing CO2 emissions using LP model based on forecasted energy demand by PSO Algorithm and ANN

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yousefi, M.; Omid, M.; Rafiee, Sh. [Department of Agricultural Machinery Engineering, University of Tehran, Karaj (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Ghaderi, S.F. [Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2013-07-01

    Iran's primary energy consumption (PEC) was modeled as a linear function of five socioeconomic and meteorological explanatory variables using particle swarm optimization (PSO) and artificial neural networks (ANNs) techniques. Results revealed that ANN outperforms PSO model to predict test data. However, PSO technique is simple and provided us with a closed form expression to forecast PEC. Energy demand was forecasted by PSO and ANN using represented scenario. Finally, adapting about 10% renewable energy revealed that based on the developed linear programming (LP) model under minimum CO2 emissions, Iran will emit about 2520 million metric tons CO2 in 2025. The LP model indicated that maximum possible development of hydropower, geothermal and wind energy resources will satisfy the aim of minimization of CO2 emissions. Therefore, the main strategic policy in order to reduce CO2 emissions would be exploitation of these resources.

  13. An Integrated Behavioural Model towards Evaluating and Influencing Energy Behaviour—The Role of Motivation in Behaviour Demand Response

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julia Blanke

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The change in the actual use of buildings by its occupants is receiving more and more attention. Over the lifecycle of a building the occupants and therefore the demands towards the buildings often change a lot. To match these altering conditions, particularly in the context of the demand for energy efficiency, purely technical approaches usually cannot solve the problem on their own or are not financially viable. It is therefore essential to take the behaviour of the end user into account and ask the fundamental question: “How is it possible to influence people’s behaviour towards a more pro-environmental outcome, and also in the long-term?” To approach this question we will present a model-driven approach for dynamically involving building occupants into the energy optimisation process. To do so we will further develop an integrated behavioural model based on established behavioural theories, having a closer look how motivational variables can be integrated into the process. This should lead to novel approaches for behaviour demand response, enabling additional demand shifting and shedding through targeted real-time engagement with energy prosumers.

  14. A supply-demand model of fetal energy sufficiency predicts lipid profiles in male but not female Filipino adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuzawa, C W; Adair, L S

    2004-03-01

    To test the hypothesis that the balance between fetal nutritional demand and maternal nutritional supply during pregnancy will predict lipid profiles in offspring measured in adolescence. A total of 296 male and 307 female Filipino offspring (aged 14-16 y) and mothers enrolled in a longitudinal birth cohort study (begun in 1983-84) had lipid profiles measured. Data on maternal height (as a proxy for offspring growth potential and thus fetal nutritional demand) and third trimester maternal arm fat area (as a proxy for maternal supply) were used to create four groups hypothesized to reflect a gradient of fetal energy sufficiency. As fetal energy sufficiency increased among males, there was a decrease in total cholesterol (TC) (Psupply-demand model did not predict any lipid outcome or clinical risk criteria. Our findings in males support the hypothesis that the balance between fetal nutritional demand and maternal nutritional supply has implications for future lipid profiles. The lack of significant associations in females adds to mounting evidence for sex differences in lipid metabolism programming, and may reflect sex differences in fetal nutritional demand. The National Science Foundation, the Mellon Foundation, the Nestle Foundation, and the Emory University Internationalization Program.

  15. A model of the evolution of larval feeding rate in Drosophila driven by conflicting energy demands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, Laurence D; Barter, Thomas T

    2015-02-01

    Energy allocation is believed to drive trade-offs in life history evolution. We develop a physiological and genetic model of energy allocation that drives evolution of feeding rate in a well-studied model system. In a variety of stressful environments Drosophila larvae adapt by altering their rate of feeding. Drosophila larvae adapted to high levels of ammonia, urea, and the presence of parasitoids evolve lower feeding rates. Larvae adapted to crowded conditions evolve higher feeding rates. Feeding rates should affect gross food intake, metabolic rates, and efficiency of food utilization. We develop a model of larval net energy intake as a function of feeding rates. We show that when there are toxic compounds in the larval food that require energy for detoxification, larvae can maximize their energy intake by slowing their feeding rates. While the reduction in feeding rates may increase development time and decrease competitive ability, we show that genotypes with lower feeding rates can be favored by natural selection if they have a sufficiently elevated viability in the toxic environment. This work shows how a simple phenotype, larval feeding rates, may be of central importance in adaptation to a wide variety of stressful environments via its role in energy allocation.

  16. Presenting a multi-objective generation scheduling model for pricing demand response rate in micro-grid energy management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aghajani, G.R.; Shayanfar, H.A.; Shayeghi, H.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Using DRPs to cover the uncertainties resulted from power generation by WT and PV. • Proposing the use of price-offer packages and amount of DR for implement DRPs. • Considering a multi-objective scheduling model and use of MOPSO algorithm. - Abstract: In this paper, a multi-objective energy management system is proposed in order to optimize micro-grid (MG) performance in a short-term in the presence of Renewable Energy Sources (RESs) for wind and solar energy generation with a randomized natural behavior. Considering the existence of different types of customers including residential, commercial, and industrial consumers can participate in demand response programs. As with declare their interruptible/curtailable demand rate or select from among different proposed prices so as to assist the central micro-grid control in terms of optimizing micro-grid operation and covering energy generation uncertainty from the renewable sources. In this paper, to implement Demand Response (DR) schedules, incentive-based payment in the form of offered packages of price and DR quantity collected by Demand Response Providers (DRPs) is used. In the typical micro-grid, different technologies including Wind Turbine (WT), PhotoVoltaic (PV) cell, Micro-Turbine (MT), Full Cell (FC), battery hybrid power source and responsive loads are used. The simulation results are considered in six different cases in order to optimize operation cost and emission with/without DR. Considering the complexity and non-linearity of the proposed problem, Multi-Objective Particle Swarm Optimization (MOPSO) is utilized. Also, fuzzy-based mechanism and non-linear sorting system are applied to determine the best compromise considering the set of solutions from Pareto-front space. The numerical results represented the effect of the proposed Demand Side Management (DSM) scheduling model on reducing the effect of uncertainty obtained from generation power and predicted by WT and PV in a MG.

  17. US residential energy demand and energy efficiency: A stochastic demand frontier approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Filippini, Massimo; Hunt, Lester C.

    2012-01-01

    This paper estimates a US frontier residential aggregate energy demand function using panel data for 48 ‘states’ over the period 1995 to 2007 using stochastic frontier analysis (SFA). Utilizing an econometric energy demand model, the (in)efficiency of each state is modeled and it is argued that this represents a measure of the inefficient use of residential energy in each state (i.e. ‘waste energy’). This underlying efficiency for the US is therefore observed for each state as well as the relative efficiency across the states. Moreover, the analysis suggests that energy intensity is not necessarily a good indicator of energy efficiency, whereas by controlling for a range of economic and other factors, the measure of energy efficiency obtained via this approach is. This is a novel approach to model residential energy demand and efficiency and it is arguably particularly relevant given current US energy policy discussions related to energy efficiency.

  18. Building energy demand aggregation and simulation tools

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gianniou, Panagiota; Heller, Alfred; Rode, Carsten

    2015-01-01

    to neighbourhoods and cities. Buildings occupy a key place in the development of smart cities as they represent an important potential to integrate smart energy solutions. Building energy consumption affects significantly the performance of the entire energy network. Therefore, a realistic estimation...... of the aggregated building energy use will not only ensure security of supply but also enhance the stabilization of national energy balances. In this study, the aggregation of building energy demand was investigated for a real case in Sønderborg, Denmark. Sixteen single-family houses -mainly built in the 1960s......- were examined, all connected to the regional district heating network. The aggregation of building energy demands was carried out according to typologies, being represented by archetype buildings. These houses were modelled with dynamic energy simulation software and with a simplified simulation tool...

  19. Metering systems and demand-side management models applied to hybrid renewable energy systems in micro-grid configuration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blasques, L.C.M.; Pinho, J.T.

    2012-01-01

    This paper proposes a demand-side management model integrated to a metering system for hybrid renewable energy systems in micro-grid configuration. The proposal is based on the management problems verified in most of this kind of renewable hybrid systems installed in Brazil. The main idea is the implementation of a pre-paid metering system with some control functions that directly act on the consumer demand, restricting the consumption proportionally to the monthly availability of renewable energy. The result is a better distribution of the electricity consumption by month and by consumer, preventing that only one user, with larger purchasing power, consumes all the renewable energy available at some time period. The proportionality between the consumption and the renewable energy's availability has the objective to prevent a lack of energy stored and a high use of the diesel generator-set on months of low renewable potential. This paper also aims to contribute to the Brazilian regulation of renewable energy systems supplying micro-grids. - Highlights: ► Review of the Brazilian electricity regulation for small-scale isolated systems. ► Renewable systems are the most feasible option in several isolated communities. ► One proposal is to guarantee government subsidies for renewable energy systems. ► Smart electronic meters to create electricity restrictions for the consumers.

  20. Analysis of Future Vehicle Energy Demand in China Based on a Gompertz Function Method and Computable General Equilibrium Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tian Wu

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a model for the projection of Chinese vehicle stocks and road vehicle energy demand through 2050 based on low-, medium-, and high-growth scenarios. To derive a gross-domestic product (GDP-dependent Gompertz function, Chinese GDP is estimated using a recursive dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE model. The Gompertz function is estimated using historical data on vehicle development trends in North America, Pacific Rim and Europe to overcome the problem of insufficient long-running data on Chinese vehicle ownership. Results indicate that the number of projected vehicle stocks for 2050 is 300, 455 and 463 million for low-, medium-, and high-growth scenarios respectively. Furthermore, the growth in China’s vehicle stock will increase beyond the inflection point of Gompertz curve by 2020, but will not reach saturation point during the period 2014–2050. Of major road vehicle categories, cars are the largest energy consumers, followed by trucks and buses. Growth in Chinese vehicle demand is primarily determined by per capita GDP. Vehicle saturation levels solely influence the shape of the Gompertz curve and population growth weakly affects vehicle demand. Projected total energy consumption of road vehicles in 2050 is 380, 575 and 586 million tonnes of oil equivalent for each scenario.

  1. Modeling plug-in electric vehicle charging demand with BEAM: the framework for behavior energy autonomy mobility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sheppard, Colin; Waraich, Rashid; Campbell, Andrew; Pozdnukov, Alexei; Gopal, Anand R.

    2017-05-01

    This report summarizes the BEAM modeling framework (Behavior, Energy, Mobility, and Autonomy) and its application to simulating plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) mobility, energy consumption, and spatiotemporal charging demand. BEAM is an agent-based model of PEV mobility and charging behavior designed as an extension to MATSim (the Multi-Agent Transportation Simulation model). We apply BEAM to the San Francisco Bay Area and conduct a preliminary calibration and validation of its prediction of charging load based on observed charging infrastructure utilization for the region in 2016. We then explore the impact of a variety of common modeling assumptions in the literature regarding charging infrastructure availability and driver behavior. We find that accurately reproducing observed charging patterns requires an explicit representation of spatially disaggregated charging infrastructure as well as a more nuanced model of the decision to charge that balances tradeoffs people make with regards to time, cost, convenience, and range anxiety.

  2. Energy supply and demand in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffith, E. D.

    1978-01-01

    The author expresses his views on future energy demand on the west coast of the United States and how that energy demand translates into demand for major fuels. He identifies the major uncertainties in determining what future demands may be. The major supply options that are available to meet projected demands and the policy implications that flow from these options are discussed.

  3. An Optimization Model for Large–Scale Wind Power Grid Connection Considering Demand Response and Energy Storage Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhongfu Tan

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available To reduce the influence of wind power output uncertainty on power system stability, demand response (DRPs and energy storage systems (ESSs are introduced while solving scheduling optimization problems. To simulate wind power scenarios, this paper uses Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS to generate the initial scenario set and constructs a scenario reduction strategy based on Kantorovich distance. Since DRPs and ESSs can influence the distribution of demand load, this paper constructs a joint scheduling optimization model for wind power, ESSs and DRPs under the objective of minimizing total coal cost, and constraints of power demand and supply balance, users’ demand elasticity, thermal units’ startup-shutdown, thermal units’ output power climbing and wind power backup service. To analyze the influences of ESSs and DRPs on system wind power consumption capacity, example simulation is made in a 10 thermal units system with a 1000 MW wind farm and 400 MW energy storage systems under four simulation scenarios. The simulation results show that the introduction of DRPs and ESSs could promote system wind power consumption capacity with significantly economic and environment benefits, which include less coal consumption and less pollutant emission; and the optimization effect reaches the optimum when DRPs and ESSs are both introduced.

  4. Maximizing Energy Savings Reliability in BC Hydro Industrial Demand-side Management Programs: An Assessment of Performance Incentive Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gosman, Nathaniel

    For energy utilities faced with expanded jurisdictional energy efficiency requirements and pursuing demand-side management (DSM) incentive programs in the large industrial sector, performance incentive programs can be an effective means to maximize the reliability of planned energy savings. Performance incentive programs balance the objectives of high participation rates with persistent energy savings by: (1) providing financial incentives and resources to minimize constraints to investment in energy efficiency, and (2) requiring that incentive payments be dependent on measured energy savings over time. As BC Hydro increases its DSM initiatives to meet the Clean Energy Act objective to reduce at least 66 per cent of new electricity demand with DSM by 2020, the utility is faced with a higher level of DSM risk, or uncertainties that impact the costeffective acquisition of planned energy savings. For industrial DSM incentive programs, DSM risk can be broken down into project development and project performance risks. Development risk represents the project ramp-up phase and is the risk that planned energy savings do not materialize due to low customer response to program incentives. Performance risk represents the operational phase and is the risk that planned energy savings do not persist over the effective measure life. DSM project development and performance risks are, in turn, a result of industrial economic, technological and organizational conditions, or DSM risk factors. In the BC large industrial sector, and characteristic of large industrial sectors in general, these DSM risk factors include: (1) capital constraints to investment in energy efficiency, (2) commodity price volatility, (3) limited internal staffing resources to deploy towards energy efficiency, (4) variable load, process-based energy saving potential, and (5) a lack of organizational awareness of an operation's energy efficiency over time (energy performance). This research assessed the capacity

  5. Growing energy demand - environmental impact

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rama Rao, G.A.

    2012-01-01

    Scientists can bring information, insights, and analytical skills to bear on matters of public concern. Often they can help the public and its representatives to understand the likely causes of events (such as natural and technological disasters) and to estimate the possible effects of projected policies. Often they can testify to what is not possible. Even so, scientists can seldom bring definitive answers to matters of public debate. Some issues are too complex to fit within the current scope of science, or there may be little reliable information available, or the values involved may lie outside of science. Scientists and technologists strive to find an answer to the growing energy demand

  6. Accounting for asymmetric price responses and underlying energy demand trends in OECD industrial energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adeyemi, Olutomi I.; Hunt, Lester C.

    2014-01-01

    This paper explores the way technical progress and improvements in energy efficiency are captured when modelling OECD industrial energy demand. The industrial sectors of the developed world involve a number of different practices and processes utilising a range of different technologies. Consequently, given the derived demand nature of energy, it is vital when modelling industrial energy demand that the impact of technical progress is appropriately captured. However, the energy economics literature does not give a clear guide on how this can be achieved; one strand suggests that technical progress is ‘endogenous’ via asymmetric price responses whereas another strand suggests that it is ‘exogenous’. More recently, it has been suggested that potentially there is a role for both ‘endogenous’ technical progress and ‘exogenous’ technical progress and consequently the general model should be specified accordingly. This paper therefore attempts to model OECD industrial energy demand using annual time series data over the period 1962–2010 for 15 OECD countries. Using the Structural Time Series Model framework, the general specifications allow for both asymmetric price responses (for technical progress to impact endogenously) and an underlying energy demand trend (for technical progress and other factors to impact exogenously, but in a non-linear way). The results show that almost all of the preferred models for OECD industrial energy demand incorporate both a stochastic underlying energy demand trend and asymmetric price responses. This gives estimated long-run income elasticities in the range of 0.34 to 0.96; estimated long-run price-maximum elasticities in the range of − 0.06 to − 1.22; estimated long-run price-recovery elasticities in the range of 0.00 to − 0.27; and estimated long-run price-cut elasticities in the range of 0.00 to − 0.18. Furthermore, the analysis suggests that when modelling industrial energy demand there is a place for

  7. Model for Analysis of the Energy Demand (MAED) users' manual for version MAED-1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1986-09-01

    This manual is organized in two major parts. The first part includes eight main sections describing how to use the MAED-1 computer program and the second one consists of five appendices giving some additional information about the program. Concerning the main sections of the manual, Section 1 gives a summary description and some background information about the MAED-1 model. Section 2 extends the description of the MAED-1 model in more detail. Section 3 introduces some concepts, mainly related to the computer requirements imposed by the program, that are used throughout this document. Sections 4 to 7 describe how to execute each of the various programs (or modules) of the MAED-1 package. The description for each module shows the user how to prepare the control and data cards needed to execute the module and how to interpret the printed output produced. Section 8 recapitulates about the use of MAED-1 for carrying out energy and electricity planning studies, describes the several phases normally involved in this type of study and provides the user with practical hints about the most important aspects that need to be verified at each phase while executing the various MAED modules

  8. The impact of ICT investment and energy price on industrial electricity demand: Dynamic growth model approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cho, Youngsang; Lee, Jongsu; Kim, Tai-Yoo [Technology Management, Economics and Policy Program, College of Engineering, Seoul National University, Shillim-Dong San56-1, Gwanak-Ku, Seoul 151-742 (Korea)

    2007-09-15

    The authors investigate the effects of information and communications technology (ICT) investment, electricity price, and oil price on the consumption of electricity in South Korea's industries using a logistic growth model. The concept electricity intensity is used to explain electricity consumption patterns. An empirical analysis implies that ICT investment in manufacturing industries that normally consume relatively large amounts of electricity promotes input factor substitution away from the labor intensive to the electricity intensive. Moreover, results also suggest that ICT investment in some specific manufacturing sectors is conducive to the reduction of electricity consumption, whereas ICT investment in the service sector and most manufacturing sectors increases electricity consumption. It is concluded that electricity prices critically affect electricity consumption in half of South Korea's industrial sectors, but not in the other half, a finding that differs somewhat from previous research results. Reasons are suggested to explain why the South Korean case is so different. Policymakers may find this study useful, as it answers the question of whether ICT investment can ultimately reduce energy consumption and may aid in planning the capacity of South Korea's national electric power. (author)

  9. The impact of ICT investment and energy price on industrial electricity demand: Dynamic growth model approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cho, Youngsang; Lee, Jongsu; Kim, Tai-Yoo

    2007-01-01

    The authors investigate the effects of information and communications technology (ICT) investment, electricity price, and oil price on the consumption of electricity in South Korea's industries using a logistic growth model. The concept electricity intensity is used to explain electricity consumption patterns. An empirical analysis implies that ICT investment in manufacturing industries that normally consume relatively large amounts of electricity promotes input factor substitution away from the labor intensive to the electricity intensive. Moreover, results also suggest that ICT investment in some specific manufacturing sectors is conducive to the reduction of electricity consumption, whereas ICT investment in the service sector and most manufacturing sectors increases electricity consumption. It is concluded that electricity prices critically affect electricity consumption in half of South Korea's industrial sectors, but not in the other half, a finding that differs somewhat from previous research results. Reasons are suggested to explain why the South Korean case is so different. Policymakers may find this study useful, as it answers the question of whether ICT investment can ultimately reduce energy consumption and may aid in planning the capacity of South Korea's national electric power. (author)

  10. Chinese energy demand falls back

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smil, V.

    1977-10-01

    China's growth in energy demand and production declined in 1976, partly because of difficulty of sustaining a rapid 5.4 percent growth and partly because of the disruptions caused by a major earthquake and the deaths of Mao Tse-Tung and Chou En-Lai. The earthquake, which damaged all mines, the power station, refineries, and transportation lines in the Tangshan area, has had serious economic consequences. The failure to back up a growing coal industry with adequate investments and mechanization was recognized in 1975 and prompted a 10-year modernization program. Progress has been made with new mine shafts, pulverizing equipment, and the use of small mines for local industries. Oil and gas production increased after the discovery of new fields and the use of new technology in the hydrocarbon industries. Ports and terminal facilities to handle large tankers will increase China's oil export traffic. Electricity generation increased with new power facilities, although China's dependence on human and animal power is still a major factor. Changes in energy consumption patterns are developing, but industry still represents 50 percent and transportation less than 10 percent. (DCK)

  11. An integrated stochastic multi-regional long-term energy planning model incorporating autonomous power systems and demand response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E.; Liu, Pei; Georgiadis, Michael C.

    2015-01-01

    The power sector faces a rapid transformation worldwide from a dominant fossil-fueled towards a low carbon electricity generation mix. Renewable energy technologies (RES) are steadily becoming a greater part of the global energy mix, in particular in regions that have put in place policies and measures to promote their utilization. This paper presents an optimization-based approach to address the generation expansion planning (GEP) problem of a large-scale, central power system in a highly uncertain and volatile electricity industry environment. A multi-regional, multi-period linear mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model is presented, combining optimization techniques with a Monte Carlo (MCA) method and demand response concepts. The optimization goal concerns the minimization of the total discounted cost by determining optimal power capacity additions per time interval and region, and the power generation mix per technology and time period. The model is evaluated on the Greek power system (GPS), taking also into consideration the scheduled interconnection of the mainland power system with those of selected autonomous islands (Cyclades and Crete), and aims at providing full insight into the composition of the long-term energy roadmap at a national level. - Highlights: • A spatial, multi-period, long-term generation expansion planning model is presented. • A Monte-Carlo method along with a demand response mechanism are incorporated. • Autonomous power systems interconnection is considered. • Electricity and CO 2 emission trade are taken into account. • Lignite, natural gas and wind power comprise the dominant power technologies

  12. Modeling global residential sector energy demand for heating and air conditioning in the context of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Isaac, Morna; Vuuren, Detlef P. van

    2009-01-01

    In this article, we assess the potential development of energy use for future residential heating and air conditioning in the context of climate change. In a reference scenario, global energy demand for heating is projected to increase until 2030 and then stabilize. In contrast, energy demand for air conditioning is projected to increase rapidly over the whole 2000-2100 period, mostly driven by income growth. The associated CO 2 emissions for both heating and cooling increase from 0.8 Gt C in 2000 to 2.2 Gt C in 2100, i.e. about 12% of total CO 2 emissions from energy use (the strongest increase occurs in Asia). The net effect of climate change on global energy use and emissions is relatively small as decreases in heating are compensated for by increases in cooling. However, impacts on heating and cooling individually are considerable in this scenario, with heating energy demand decreased by 34% worldwide by 2100 as a result of climate change, and air-conditioning energy demand increased by 72%. At the regional scale considerable impacts can be seen, particularly in South Asia, where energy demand for residential air conditioning could increase by around 50% due to climate change, compared with the situation without climate change

  13. The UFE Prospective scenarios for energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-01-01

    After an overview of the French energy consumption in 2011 (final energy consumption, distribution of CO 2 emissions related to energy consumption), this Power Point presentation proposes graphs and figures illustrating UFE's prospective scenarios for energy demand. The objective is to foresee energy demand in 2050, to study the impact of possible actions on energy demand, and to assess the impact on greenhouse gas emissions. Hypotheses relate to demographic evolution, economic growth, energy intensity evolution, energy efficiency, and use transfers. Factors of evolution of energy demand are discussed: relationship between demography and energy consumption, new uses of electricity (notably with TICs), relationship between energy intensity and economic growth. Actions on demand are discussed. The results of different scenarios of technical evolution are presented

  14. The impact of predicted demand on energy production

    Science.gov (United States)

    El kafazi, I.; Bannari, R.; Aboutafail, My. O.

    2018-05-01

    Energy is crucial for human life, a secure and accessible supply of power is essential for the sustainability of societies. Economic development and demographic progression increase energy demand, prompting countries to conduct research and studies on energy demand and production. Although, increasing in energy demand in the future requires a correct determination of the amount of energy supplied. Our article studies the impact of demand on energy production to find the relationship between the two latter and managing properly the production between the different energy sources. Historical data of demand and energy production since 2000 are used. The data are processed by the regression model to study the impact of demand on production. The obtained results indicate that demand has a positive and significant impact on production (high impact). Production is also increasing but at a slower pace. In this work, Morocco is considered as a case study.

  15. Sectoral energy demand data: Sources and Issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ounali, A.

    1991-01-01

    This chapter of the publication is dealing with Sectoral Energy Demand Data giving details about the Sources and Issues. Some comments are presented on rural energy surveys. Guidelines for the Definition and Desegregation of Sectoral Energy Consumption is given and Data Necessary for Sectoral Energy Demand Analysis is discussed

  16. Component-Based Modelling for Scalable Smart City Systems Interoperability: A Case Study on Integrating Energy Demand Response Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palomar, Esther; Chen, Xiaohong; Liu, Zhiming; Maharjan, Sabita; Bowen, Jonathan

    2016-10-28

    Smart city systems embrace major challenges associated with climate change, energy efficiency, mobility and future services by embedding the virtual space into a complex cyber-physical system. Those systems are constantly evolving and scaling up, involving a wide range of integration among users, devices, utilities, public services and also policies. Modelling such complex dynamic systems' architectures has always been essential for the development and application of techniques/tools to support design and deployment of integration of new components, as well as for the analysis, verification, simulation and testing to ensure trustworthiness. This article reports on the definition and implementation of a scalable component-based architecture that supports a cooperative energy demand response (DR) system coordinating energy usage between neighbouring households. The proposed architecture, called refinement of Cyber-Physical Component Systems (rCPCS), which extends the refinement calculus for component and object system (rCOS) modelling method, is implemented using Eclipse Extensible Coordination Tools (ECT), i.e., Reo coordination language. With rCPCS implementation in Reo, we specify the communication, synchronisation and co-operation amongst the heterogeneous components of the system assuring, by design scalability and the interoperability, correctness of component cooperation.

  17. Novel effects of demand side management data on accuracy of electrical energy consumption modeling and long-term forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ardakani, F.J.; Ardehali, M.M.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Novel effects of DSM data on electricity consumption forecasting is examined. • Optimal ANN models based on IPSO and SFL algorithms are developed. • Addition of DSM data to socio-economic indicators data reduces MAPE by 36%. - Abstract: Worldwide implementation of demand side management (DSM) programs has had positive impacts on electrical energy consumption (EEC) and the examination of their effects on long-term forecasting is warranted. The objective of this study is to investigate the effects of historical DSM data on accuracy of EEC modeling and long-term forecasting. To achieve the objective, optimal artificial neural network (ANN) models based on improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO) and shuffled frog-leaping (SFL) algorithms are developed for EEC forecasting. For long-term EEC modeling and forecasting for the U.S. for 2010–2030, two historical data types used in conjunction with developed models include (i) EEC and (ii) socio-economic indicators, namely, gross domestic product, energy imports, energy exports, and population for 1967–2009 period. Simulation results from IPSO-ANN and SFL-ANN models show that using socio-economic indicators as input data achieves lower mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for long-term EEC forecasting, as compared with EEC data. Based on IPSO-ANN, it is found that, for the U.S. EEC long-term forecasting, the addition of DSM data to socio-economic indicators data reduces MAPE by 36% and results in the estimated difference of 3592.8 MBOE (5849.9 TW h) in EEC for 2010–2030

  18. Intercity Travel Demand Analysis Model

    OpenAIRE

    Ming Lu; Hai Zhu; Xia Luo; Lei Lei

    2014-01-01

    It is well known that intercity travel is an important component of travel demand which belongs to short distance corridor travel. The conventional four-step method is no longer suitable for short distance corridor travel demand analysis for the time spent on urban traffic has a great impact on traveler's main mode choice. To solve this problem, the author studied the existing intercity travel demand analysis model, then improved it based on the study, and finally established a combined model...

  19. Sensitivity analysis of energy demands on performance of CCHP system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, C.Z.; Shi, Y.M.; Huang, X.H.

    2008-01-01

    Sensitivity analysis of energy demands is carried out in this paper to study their influence on performance of CCHP system. Energy demand is a very important and complex factor in the optimization model of CCHP system. Average, uncertainty and historical peaks are adopted to describe energy demands. The mix-integer nonlinear programming model (MINLP) which can reflect the three aspects of energy demands is established. Numerical studies are carried out based on energy demands of a hotel and a hospital. The influence of average, uncertainty and peaks of energy demands on optimal facility scheme and economic advantages of CCHP system are investigated. The optimization results show that the optimal GT's capacity and economy of CCHP system mainly lie on the average energy demands. Sum of capacities of GB and HE is equal to historical heating demand peaks, and sum of capacities of AR and ER are equal to historical cooling demand peaks. Maximum of PG is sensitive with historical peaks of energy demands and not influenced by uncertainty of energy demands, while the corresponding influence on DH is adverse

  20. Job demands-resources model

    OpenAIRE

    Bakker, Arnold; Demerouti, Eva

    2013-01-01

    markdownabstract* The question of what causes job stress and what motivates people has received a lot of research attention during the past five decades. In this paper, we discuss Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) theory, which represents an extension of the Job Demands-Resources model (Bakker & Demerouti, 2007; Demerouti, Bakker, Nachreiner, & Schaufeli, 2001) and is inspired by job design and job stress theories. JD-R theory explains how job demands and resources have unique and multiplicative e...

  1. Dynamics of final sectoral energy demand and aggregate energy intensity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lescaroux, Francois

    2011-01-01

    This paper proposes a regional and sectoral model of global final energy demand. For the main end-use sectors of consumption (industrial, commercial and public services, residential and road transportation), per-capita demand is expressed as an S-shaped function of per-capita income. Other variables intervene as well, like energy prices, temperatures and technological trends. This model is applied on a panel of 101 countries and 3 aggregates (covering the whole world) and it explains fairly well past variations in sectoral, final consumption since the beginning of the 2000s. Further, the model is used to analyze the dynamics of final energy demand, by sector and in total. The main conclusion concerns the pattern of change for aggregate energy intensity. The simulations performed show that there is no a priori reason for it to exhibit a bell-shape, as reported in the literature. Depending on initial conditions, the weight of basic needs in total consumption and the availability of modern commercial energy resources, various forms might emerge. - Research Highlights: → The residential sector accounts for most of final energy consumption at low income levels. → Its share drops at the benefit of the industrial, services and road transportation sectors in turn. → Sectoral shares' pattern is affected by changes in geographic, sociologic and economic factors. → Final energy intensity may show various shapes and does not exhibit necessarily a bell-shape.

  2. Calculating Impacts of Energy Standards on Energy Demand in U.S. Buildings under Uncertainty with an Integrated Assessment Model: Technical Background Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scott, Michael J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Daly, Don S. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hathaway, John E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Lansing, Carina S. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Liu, Ying [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); McJeon, Haewon C. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Moss, Richard H. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Patel, Pralit L. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Peterson, Marty J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rice, Jennie S. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhou, Yuyu [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2014-12-06

    This report presents data and assumptions employed in an application of PNNL’s Global Change Assessment Model with a newly-developed Monte Carlo analysis capability. The model is used to analyze the impacts of more aggressive U.S. residential and commercial building-energy codes and equipment standards on energy consumption and energy service costs at the state level, explicitly recognizing uncertainty in technology effectiveness and cost, socioeconomics, presence or absence of carbon prices, and climate impacts on energy demand. The report provides a summary of how residential and commercial buildings are modeled, together with assumptions made for the distributions of state–level population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per worker, efficiency and cost of residential and commercial energy equipment by end use, and efficiency and cost of residential and commercial building shells. The cost and performance of equipment and of building shells are reported separately for current building and equipment efficiency standards and for more aggressive standards. The report also details assumptions concerning future improvements brought about by projected trends in technology.

  3. Coordination of Energy Efficiency and Demand Response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goldman, Charles; Reid, Michael; Levy, Roger; Silverstein, Alison

    2010-01-29

    This paper reviews the relationship between energy efficiency and demand response and discusses approaches and barriers to coordinating energy efficiency and demand response. The paper is intended to support the 10 implementation goals of the National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency's Vision to achieve all cost-effective energy efficiency by 2025. Improving energy efficiency in our homes, businesses, schools, governments, and industries - which consume more than 70 percent of the nation's natural gas and electricity - is one of the most constructive, cost-effective ways to address the challenges of high energy prices, energy security and independence, air pollution, and global climate change. While energy efficiency is an increasingly prominent component of efforts to supply affordable, reliable, secure, and clean electric power, demand response is becoming a valuable tool in utility and regional resource plans. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) estimated the contribution from existing U.S. demand response resources at about 41,000 megawatts (MW), about 5.8 percent of 2008 summer peak demand (FERC, 2008). Moreover, FERC recently estimated nationwide achievable demand response potential at 138,000 MW (14 percent of peak demand) by 2019 (FERC, 2009).2 A recent Electric Power Research Institute study estimates that 'the combination of demand response and energy efficiency programs has the potential to reduce non-coincident summer peak demand by 157 GW' by 2030, or 14-20 percent below projected levels (EPRI, 2009a). This paper supports the Action Plan's effort to coordinate energy efficiency and demand response programs to maximize value to customers. For information on the full suite of policy and programmatic options for removing barriers to energy efficiency, see the Vision for 2025 and the various other Action Plan papers and guides available at www.epa.gov/eeactionplan.

  4. Job demands-resources model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.B. Bakker (Arnold); E. Demerouti (Eva)

    2013-01-01

    markdownabstract* The question of what causes job stress and what motivates people has received a lot of research attention during the past five decades. In this paper, we discuss Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) theory, which represents an extension of the Job Demands-Resources model (Bakker &

  5. Dynamic modeling, experimental evaluation, optimal design and control of integrated fuel cell system and hybrid energy systems for building demands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Gia Luong Huu

    obtained experimental data, the research studied the control of airflow to regulate the temperature of reactors within the fuel processor. The dynamic model provided a platform to test the dynamic response for different control gains. With sufficient sensing and appropriate control, a rapid response to maintain the temperature of the reactor despite an increase in power was possible. The third part of the research studied the use of a fuel cell in conjunction with photovoltaic panels, and energy storage to provide electricity for buildings. This research developed an optimization framework to determine the size of each device in the hybrid energy system to satisfy the electrical demands of buildings and yield the lowest cost. The advantage of having the fuel cell with photovoltaic and energy storage was the ability to operate the fuel cell at baseload at night, thus reducing the need for large battery systems to shift the solar power produced in the day to the night. In addition, the dispatchability of the fuel cell provided an extra degree of freedom necessary for unforeseen disturbances. An operation framework based on model predictive control showed that the method is suitable for optimizing the dispatch of the hybrid energy system.

  6. Energy demand of electricity generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drahny, M.

    1992-01-01

    The complex energy balance method was applied to selected electricity generation subsystems. The hydroelectric, brown coal based, and nuclear based subsystems are defined. The complex energy balance basically consists in identifying the mainstream and side-stream energy inputs and outputs for both the individual components and the entire electricity generation subsystem considered. Relationships for the complete energy balance calculation for the i-th component of the subsystem are given, and its side-stream energy inputs and outputs are defined. (J.B.). 4 figs., 4 refs

  7. Demand, Energy, and Power Factor

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-08-01

    POWER FACTOR DEFINITION I Basically , power factor (pf) is a measure of how effectively the plant uses the electricity it purchases from the utility. It...not be made available by the plant. U 24 This video is relatively short, less than fifteen-minutes, and covers the basics on demand, block extenders... ratemaking methodology and test period as used in determining the NC-RS rates. Pending final decision by the FERC, the Federal Government would pay a rate as

  8. Industrial Sector Technology Use Model (ISTUM): industrial energy use in the United States, 1974-2000. Volume 3. Appendix on service and fuel demands. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1979-10-01

    This book is the third volume of the ISTUM report. The first volume of the report describes the primary model logic and the model's data inputs. The second volume lists and evaluates the results of one model run. This and the fourth volume give supplementary information in two sets of model data - the energy consumption base and technology descriptions. Chapter III of Vol. I, Book 1 describes the ISTUM demand base and explains how that demand base was developed. This volume serves as a set of appendices to that chapter. The chapter on demands in Vol. I describes the assumptions and methodology used in constructing the ISTUM demand base; this volume simply lists tables of data from that demand base. This book divides the demand tables into two appendices. Appendix III-1 contains detailed tables on ISTUM fuel-consumption estimates, service-demand forecasts, and size and load-factor distributions. Appendix III-2 contains tables detailing ISTUM allocations of each industry's fuel consumption to service sectors. The tables show how the ECDB was used to develop the ISTUM demand base.

  9. Fundamental Travel Demand Model Example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanssen, Joel

    2010-01-01

    Instances of transportation models are abundant and detailed "how to" instruction is available in the form of transportation software help documentation. The purpose of this paper is to look at the fundamental inputs required to build a transportation model by developing an example passenger travel demand model. The example model reduces the scale to a manageable size for the purpose of illustrating the data collection and analysis required before the first step of the model begins. This aspect of the model development would not reasonably be discussed in software help documentation (it is assumed the model developer comes prepared). Recommendations are derived from the example passenger travel demand model to suggest future work regarding the data collection and analysis required for a freight travel demand model.

  10. The energy demand in the Narino Department

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Unidad de Planeacion Minero Energetica, UPME

    2000-01-01

    In the object of making a first approach of regional energy requirements analysis and the good way of satisfying them, the UPME undertook a global energy study for the Narino Department. In this study (UPME 1999) was carried out an analysis of the energy demand and of the socioeconomic factors that determine it; they were also studied the consumptions and the current energy offer and the alternatives of future evolution, with the purpose of having the basic tools of a departmental energy plan. The present article refers specifically to the analysis of the demand and it seeks to show the readers the complexity and the volume of necessary information to carry out the demand studies. They are multiple factors that determine the energy demand in the Narino Department. The size, growth populations, geographical distribution and cultural characteristic, the border condition, the faulty infrastructure of communications, the agricultural economic structure and the low entrance per capita

  11. Energy demand seen as an open perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scholz, L.

    1990-01-01

    In the course assessments of the potentials of conserving energy it has become clear that the major problems in such attempts do not come from the field of science or technology, but rather from the economy and the society. The chapter on prognostic assessment of energy demand therefore discusses the procedures in the Federal Republic of Germany and prognoses of energy demand and supply in their context, which is made up of ecological, economic, political and sociological factors. (DG) [de

  12. Household energy demand. Empirical studies concerning Sweden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dargay, J; Lundin, A

    1978-06-01

    This paper investigates the effects of energy policy on households in Sweden and provides the material necessary for evaluation of current and proposed energy-conservation measures. Emphasis is placed on the impact of enery taxation or price changes on household demand for electricity, heating oil, and gasoline and the consequences of such measures for income distribution. The results of the Swedish studies of household demand for heating oil and gasoline indicate that price changes can have a considerable long run impact on fuel utilization. In the short run, price responsiveness is notably reduced, but it is nevertheless of consequence for energy demand.

  13. The impact of future energy demand on renewable energy production – Case of Norway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosenberg, Eva; Lind, Arne; Espegren, Kari Aamodt

    2013-01-01

    Projections of energy demand are an important part of analyses of policies to promote conservation, efficiency, technology implementation and renewable energy production. The development of energy demand is a key driver of the future energy system. This paper presents long-term projections of the Norwegian energy demand as a two-step methodology of first using activities and intensities to calculate a demand of energy services, and secondly use this as input to the energy system model TIMES-Norway to optimize the Norwegian energy system. Long-term energy demand projections are uncertain and the purpose of this paper is to illustrate the impact of different projections on the energy system. The results of the analyses show that decreased energy demand results in a higher renewable fraction compared to an increased demand, and the renewable energy production increases with increased energy demand. The most profitable solution to cover increased demand is to increase the use of bio energy and to implement energy efficiency measures. To increase the wind power production, an increased renewable target or higher electricity export prices have to be fulfilled, in combination with more electricity export. - Highlights: • Projections to 2050 of Norwegian energy demand services, carriers and technologies. • Energy demand services calculated based on intensities and activities. • Energy carriers and technologies analysed by TIMES-Norway. • High renewable target results in more wind power production and electricity export. • Increased energy efficiency is important for a high renewable fraction

  14. Addressing Energy Demand through Demand Response. International Experiences and Practices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shen, Bo [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Ghatikar, Girish [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Ni, Chun Chun [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Dudley, Junqiao [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Martin, Phil [Enernoc, Inc., Boston, MA (United States); Wikler, Greg

    2012-06-01

    Demand response (DR) is a load management tool which provides a cost-effective alternative to traditional supply-side solutions to address the growing demand during times of peak electrical load. According to the US Department of Energy (DOE), demand response reflects “changes in electric usage by end-use customers from their normal consumption patterns in response to changes in the price of electricity over time, or to incentive payments designed to induce lower electricity use at times of high wholesale market prices or when system reliability is jeopardized.” 1 The California Energy Commission (CEC) defines DR as “a reduction in customers’ electricity consumption over a given time interval relative to what would otherwise occur in response to a price signal, other financial incentives, or a reliability signal.” 2 This latter definition is perhaps most reflective of how DR is understood and implemented today in countries such as the US, Canada, and Australia where DR is primarily a dispatchable resource responding to signals from utilities, grid operators, and/or load aggregators (or DR providers).

  15. Demand Response and Energy Storage Integration Study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ma, Ookie; Cheung, Kerry; Olsen, Daniel J.; Matson, Nance; Sohn, Michael D.; Rose, Cody M.; Dudley, Junqiao Han; Goli, Sasank; Kiliccote, Sila; Cappers, Peter; MacDonald, Jason; Denholm, Paul; Hummon, Marissa; Jorgenson, Jennie; Palchak, David; Starke, Michael; Alkadi, Nasr; Bhatnagar, Dhruv; Currier, Aileen; Hernandez, Jaci; Kirby, Brendan; O' Malley, Mark

    2016-03-01

    Demand response and energy storage resources present potentially important sources of bulk power system services that can aid in integrating variable renewable generation. While renewable integration studies have evaluated many of the challenges associated with deploying large amounts of variable wind and solar generation technologies, integration analyses have not yet fully incorporated demand response and energy storage resources. This report represents an initial effort in analyzing the potential integration value of demand response and energy storage, focusing on the western United States. It evaluates two major aspects of increased deployment of demand response and energy storage: (1) Their operational value in providing bulk power system services and (2) Market and regulatory issues, including potential barriers to deployment.

  16. Modeling of Electric Demand for Sustainable Energy and Management in India Using Spatio-Temporal DMSP-OLS Night-Time Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tripathy, Bismay Ranjan; Sajjad, Haroon; Elvidge, Christopher D.; Ting, Yu; Pandey, Prem Chandra; Rani, Meenu; Kumar, Pavan

    2018-04-01

    Changes in the pattern of electric power consumption in India have influenced energy utilization processes and socio-economic development to greater extent during the last few decades. Assessment of spatial distribution of electricity consumption is, thus, essential for projecting availability of energy resource and planning its infrastructure. This paper makes an attempt to model the future electricity demand for sustainable energy and its management in India. The nighttime light database provides a good approximation of availability of energy. We utilized defense meteorological satellite program-operational line-scan system (DMSP-OLS) nighttime satellite data, electricity consumption (1993-2013), gross domestic product (GDP) and population growth to construct the model. We also attempted to examine the sensitiveness of electricity consumption to GDP and population growth. The results revealed that the calibrated DMSP and model has provided realistic information on the electric demand with respect to GDP and population, with a better accuracy of r 2 = 0.91. The electric demand was found to be more sensitive to GDP ( r = 0.96) than population growth ( r = 0.76) as envisaged through correlation analysis. Hence, the model proved to be useful tool in predicting electric demand for its sustainable use and management.

  17. Modeling of Electric Demand for Sustainable Energy and Management in India Using Spatio-Temporal DMSP-OLS Night-Time Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tripathy, Bismay Ranjan; Sajjad, Haroon; Elvidge, Christopher D; Ting, Yu; Pandey, Prem Chandra; Rani, Meenu; Kumar, Pavan

    2018-04-01

    Changes in the pattern of electric power consumption in India have influenced energy utilization processes and socio-economic development to greater extent during the last few decades. Assessment of spatial distribution of electricity consumption is, thus, essential for projecting availability of energy resource and planning its infrastructure. This paper makes an attempt to model the future electricity demand for sustainable energy and its management in India. The nighttime light database provides a good approximation of availability of energy. We utilized defense meteorological satellite program-operational line-scan system (DMSP-OLS) nighttime satellite data, electricity consumption (1993-2013), gross domestic product (GDP) and population growth to construct the model. We also attempted to examine the sensitiveness of electricity consumption to GDP and population growth. The results revealed that the calibrated DMSP and model has provided realistic information on the electric demand with respect to GDP and population, with a better accuracy of r 2  = 0.91. The electric demand was found to be more sensitive to GDP (r = 0.96) than population growth (r = 0.76) as envisaged through correlation analysis. Hence, the model proved to be useful tool in predicting electric demand for its sustainable use and management.

  18. Grid Integration of Aggregated Demand Response, Part 2: Modeling Demand Response in a Production Cost Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hummon, Marissa [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Palchak, David [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Denholm, Paul [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Jorgenson, Jennie [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Olsen, Daniel J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Kiliccote, Sila [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Matson, Nance [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Sohn, Michael [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Rose, Cody [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Dudley, Junqiao [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Goli, Sasank [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Ma, Ookie [U.S. Dept. of Energy, Washington, DC (United States)

    2013-12-01

    This report is one of a series stemming from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Demand Response and Energy Storage Integration Study. This study is a multi-national-laboratory effort to assess the potential value of demand response (DR) and energy storage to electricity systems with different penetration levels of variable renewable resources and to improve our understanding of associatedmarkets and institutions. This report implements DR resources in the commercial production cost model PLEXOS.

  19. Intercity Travel Demand Analysis Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Lu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available It is well known that intercity travel is an important component of travel demand which belongs to short distance corridor travel. The conventional four-step method is no longer suitable for short distance corridor travel demand analysis for the time spent on urban traffic has a great impact on traveler's main mode choice. To solve this problem, the author studied the existing intercity travel demand analysis model, then improved it based on the study, and finally established a combined model of main mode choice and access mode choice. At last, an integrated multilevel nested logit model structure system was built. The model system includes trip generation, destination choice, and mode-route choice based on multinomial logit model, and it achieved linkage and feedback of each part through logsum variable. This model was applied in Shenzhen intercity railway passenger demand forecast in 2010 as a case study. As a result, the forecast results were consistent with the actuality. The model's correctness and feasibility were verified.

  20. The effect of expected energy prices on energy demand: implications for energy conservation and carbon taxes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaufmann, R.K.

    1994-01-01

    This paper describes an empirical method for estimating the effect of expected prices on energy demand. Data for expected oil prices are compiled from forecasts for real oil prices. The effect of expectations on energy demand is simulated with an expectation variable that proxies the return on investment for energy efficient capital. Econometric results indicate that expected prices have a significant effect on energy demand in the US between 1975 and 1989. A model built from the econometric results indicates that the way in which consumers anticipate changes in energy prices that are generated by a carbon tax affects the quantity of emissions abated by the tax. 14 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab

  1. Energy in China: Coping with increasing demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sandklef, Kristina

    2004-11-01

    Sustaining the increasing energy consumption is crucial to future economic growth in China. This report focuses on the current and future situation of energy production and consumption in China and how China is coping with its increasing domestic energy demand. Today, coal is the most important energy resource, followed by oil and hydropower. Most energy resources are located in the inland, whereas the main demand for energy is in the coastal areas, which makes transportation and transmission of energy vital. The industrial sector is the main driver of the energy consumption in China, but the transport sector and the residential sector will increase their share of consumption in China, but the transport sector and the residential sector will increase their share of consumption by 2020. China's energy intensity decreased during the 1990s, but it is still high in a global comparison. China is projected to increase its energy consumption at least two times between 2000 and 2025. The government has an equal focus on energy conservation and to develop the current energy resources. Coal will continue to be the most important fuel, but the demand for oil, hydropower, natural gas and nuclear power will also increase. The main future challenges are transportation of energy resources within China and securing oil supply, both domestic and imports

  2. Decomposing energy demand across BRIIC countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adetutu, Morakinyo O.; Glass, Anthony J.; Weyman-Jones, Thomas G.

    2016-01-01

    Energy plays an important role within the production technology of fast emerging economies, such that firms' reaction to changes in energy prices provides useful information on factor productivity and factor intensity, as well as the likely outcome of energy policy initiatives, among other things. Drawing on duality theory, this paper decomposes changes in energy demand into substitution and output effects using annual sector-level production data for Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia and China (BRIIC) for the period 1995–2009. Unlike previous studies, this study analyzed the economic properties of the underlying production technology. Results indicate that changes in energy demand are strongly dominated by substitution effects. More importantly, an intriguing finding that emerges from our analysis is the role of economies of scale and factor accumulation, as opposed to technical progress, in giving rise to the growth performance of sampled economies. - Highlights: • The analysis examines the structure and channels of changes in energy demand across productive sectors in BRIIC countries during 1995–2009. • We evaluate substitution and output effects as well as the nature of firm productivity across these countries. • Changes in energy demand arising from changes in (relative) price of energy is strongly dominated by substitution effects. • The main drivers of economic performance and energy use over the sample period are economies of scale and factor accumulation.

  3. Energy demand in seven OECD countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patry, M.

    1990-01-01

    The intensity of utilization of energy has been declining in all OECD countries since the first oil price shock of 1973. In 1988, the OECD countries were consuming 1.7 billion tonnes of crude oil, that is two hundred million tonnes less than fifteen years ago. From 1974 to 1988, OECD oil consumption decreased at an average annual rate of 1.3% while the GDP of these countries rose by an average of 2.6% per annum. The authors present here a model of sectoral energy demand and interfuel substitution for the G-7 countries: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States. The ultimate goal is to determine the relative importance of the contributing factors to the observed reversal in energy consumption per unit of production in these countries. The results they present should be viewed as preliminary. They point in the paper to a number of extensions that should improve the theoretical quality of the modeling effort and the statistical robustness of the results. They are presently expanding the data set to pinpoint more adequately the effects of structural change and conservation

  4. The SEEC United Kingdom energy demand forecast (1993-2000)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fouquet, R; Hawdon, D; Pearson, P; Robinson, C; Stevens, P

    1993-12-16

    The aims of this paper are to present the underlying determinants of fuel consumption, such as economic activity and prices, develop a series of simple yet reliable sectoral models of energy demand, which incorporate recent modelling developments; provide forecasts of energy demand and its environmental consequences; examine the effects of VAT on domestic fuel and increased competition in the electricity sector; and aid the present debate on energy markets. The paper analyses world oil prices, with a particular focus on Iraq's role, reviews energy policy in the UK and discusses SEEC's expectations about UK fuel prices in coming years and how they vary among sectors. It forecasts final user demand in the domestic, iron and steel, other industry, transport, agricultural, public administration and defence and miscellaneous sectors. The paper also examines the major changes that are underway in electricity generators' demand for fuel, and primary energy consumption and its environmental implications.

  5. An overview of the energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lavergne, R.

    2009-01-01

    According to IEA the world demand for energy is likely to grow by 45% from now to 2030 if today's tendency is extrapolated and coal would represent the third of this energy increase. The world CO 2 releases might have grown by 55% in 2030 compared to today's releases. Today at the world scale, the sector that generates most greenhouse effect gases is the energy production (26%) followed by industry (19%). France's strategy concerning climate change and energy policy is recalled and fits with European Union's action plan. This action plan in the energy sector follows 6 axes: -) the setting of an European market of energy, -) +20% in energy efficiency by 2020, -) 20% of renewable energies in the energy mix by 2020, -) the development of a European technology for a low carbon future, -) the development of nuclear energy, and -) The setting of a European foreign energy policy. (A.C.)

  6. A model approach for analysing trends in energy supply and demand at country level: case study of industrial development in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miranda-da-Cruz, S.M.

    2007-01-01

    Ideally, national energy supply and demand choices would be based on comprehensive models and predictions of the energy sources, energy transformations, energy carriers and energy end-uses expected to play major roles into the foreseeable future (20-40 years). However, in many cases, the necessary detailed, high quality, consistent and timely data is not available for such comprehensive models to be constructed, in particular in large and complex developing economies expected to be major energy users in the near future. In the developing countries that are the focus of UNIDO's work, attention has been concentrated on making progress simultaneously on two fronts: (a) a dramatic decrease in energy intensity, particularly in activities linked to industrial production and (b) a major increase in the contribution of local renewable energy to limit growth in fossil fuel use. National policies need to be oriented towards a strict and strategic monitoring of the respective energy matrices with a simultaneous focus on both fronts. Robust assessments of industrial development trends throughout the whole 20-40 year transition phase are needed to achieve both objectives. Until more comprehensive energy-related models can be built up, to overcome the limited availability of data at country level it is proposed that a simple energy supply and demand model analysis consisting of three phases be used for identifying the consistency of future scenarios and corresponding policy requirements. This model analysis, which is a dynamic exercise, consists, first, of an analysis at aggregate level of the current and future national energy matrices; secondly, an analysis of perspectives for decreasing the energy intensity of the most inefficient systems or industrial sectors; and thirdly, an analysis of perspectives for increasing the supply and cost-effectiveness of sustainable energy sources. As an illustration of this model approach, the case of China is analysed with emphasis on the

  7. Energy supply and demand in Canada and export demand for Canadian energy, 1966--1990

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1969-01-01

    This report presents the results of a National Energy Board staff study of energy supply and demand in Canada to 1990. The study covers all forms of energy in Canada, and probable sources of supply for serving both indigenous and export demand for Canadian energy. Energy demand by market sector (residential and commercial, industrial, and transportation) is discussed in Chapters III, IV and V, respectively. Chapters VI, VII, VIII, and IX deal with supply prospects for Canadian petroleum, natural gas, coal, and electricity serving indigenous and export markets. A summary of the report is contained in Chapter II. Appendix A reviews general assumptions including those relating to population and household growth. Appendix B summarizes the methodology used for estimating residential energy demand, automobile transportation energy demand, and electricity supply. Appendix C includes a number of tables which provide detailed information. A list of definitions and abbreviations follows the Table of Contents.

  8. Energy demand analysis in the industrial sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lapillone, B.

    1991-01-01

    This Chapter of the publication is dealing with Energy Demand Analysis in the Industrial Sector.Different estimates of energy consumption in Industry taking Thailand as an example is given. Major energy consuming industrial sectors in selected Asian countries are given. Suggestion for the analysis of the energy consumption trends in industry, whether at the overall level or at the sub-sector level (e.g. food) using the conventional approach , through energy/output ratio is given. 4 refs, 7 figs, 13 tabs

  9. Modelling Commodity Demands and Labour Supply with m-Demands

    OpenAIRE

    Browning, Martin

    1999-01-01

    In the empirical modelling of demands and labour supply we often lack data on a full set of goods. The usual response is to invoke separability assumptions. Here we present an alternative based on modelling demands as a function of prices and the quantity of a reference good rather than total expenditure. We term such demands m-demands. The advantage of this approach is that we make maximum use of the data to hand without invoking implausible separability assumptions. In the theory section qu...

  10. Aggregated Demand Response Modelling for Future Grid Scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Marzooghi, Hesamoddin; Verbic, Gregor; Hill, David J.

    2015-01-01

    With the increased penetration of intermittent renewable energy sources (RESs) in future grids (FGs), balancing between supply and demand will become more dependent on demand response (DR) and energy storage. Thus, FG feasibility studies will need to consider DR for modelling nett future demand. Against this backdrop, this paper proposes a demand model which integrates the aggregated effect of DR in a simplified representation of the effect of market/dispatch processes aiming at minimising th...

  11. Energy Demand Forecasting: Combining Cointegration Analysis and Artificial Intelligence Algorithm

    OpenAIRE

    Huang, Junbing; Tang, Yuee; Chen, Shuxing

    2018-01-01

    Energy is vital for the sustainable development of China. Accurate forecasts of annual energy demand are essential to schedule energy supply and provide valuable suggestions for developing related industries. In the existing literature on energy use prediction, the artificial intelligence-based (AI-based) model has received considerable attention. However, few econometric and statistical evidences exist that can prove the reliability of the current AI-based model, an area that still needs to ...

  12. On the Inclusion of Energy-Shifting Demand Response in Production Cost Models: Methodology and a Case Study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Connell, Niamh [Technical Univ. of Denmark, Lyngby (Denmark); Hale, Elaine [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Doebber, Ian [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Jorgenson, Jennie [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-07-20

    In the context of future power system requirements for additional flexibility, demand response (DR) is an attractive potential resource. Its proponents widely laud its prospective benefits, which include enabling higher penetrations of variable renewable generation at lower cost than alternative storage technologies, and improving economic efficiency. In practice, DR from the commercial and residential sectors is largely an emerging, not a mature, resource, and its actual costs and benefits need to be studied to determine promising combinations of physical DR resource, enabling controls and communications, power system characteristics, regulatory environments, market structures, and business models. The work described in this report focuses on the enablement of such analysis from the production cost modeling perspective. In particular, we contribute a bottom-up methodology for modeling load-shifting DR in production cost models. The resulting model is sufficiently detailed to reflect the physical characteristics and constraints of the underlying flexible load, and includes the possibility of capturing diurnal and seasonal variations in the resource. Nonetheless, the model is of low complexity and thus suitable for inclusion in conventional unit commitment and market clearing algorithms. The ability to simulate DR as an operational resource on a power system over a year facilitates an assessment of its time-varying value to the power system.

  13. Enabling technologies for industrial energy demand management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dyer, Caroline H.; Hammond, Geoffrey P.; Jones, Craig I.; McKenna, Russell C.

    2008-01-01

    This state-of-science review sets out to provide an indicative assessment of enabling technologies for reducing UK industrial energy demand and carbon emissions to 2050. In the short term, i.e. the period that will rely on current or existing technologies, the road map and priorities are clear. A variety of available technologies will lead to energy demand reduction in industrial processes, boiler operation, compressed air usage, electric motor efficiency, heating and lighting, and ancillary uses such as transport. The prospects for the commercial exploitation of innovative technologies by the middle of the 21st century are more speculative. Emphasis is therefore placed on the range of technology assessment methods that are likely to provide policy makers with a guide to progress in the development of high-temperature processes, improved materials, process integration and intensification, and improved industrial process control and monitoring. Key among the appraisal methods applicable to the energy sector is thermodynamic analysis, making use of energy, exergy and 'exergoeconomic' techniques. Technical and economic barriers will limit the improvement potential to perhaps a 30% cut in industrial energy use, which would make a significant contribution to reducing energy demand and carbon emissions in UK industry. Non-technological drivers for, and barriers to, the take-up of innovative, low-carbon energy technologies for industry are also outlined

  14. Energy Demand and Supply Analysis and Outlook - Energy Forecast for 2001 and Policy Issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Na, In Gang; Ryu, Ji Chul [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

    2000-12-01

    The energy consumption in Korea has grown at impressive rates during the last 3 decades, along with the economic growth. The global concern about the environment issue and the restructuring in Korea energy industry has an effect on the pattern and trend of energy demand in Korea. Under the situation, this research are focusing on the analysis of energy consumption and forecast of energy demand. First of all, we analyze the trends and major characteristics of energy consumption, beginning with 1970s and up to the third quarter of 2000. In the analysis of energy consumption by energy types, we also perform qualitative analysis on the trends and characteristics of each energy types, including institutional analysis. In model section, we start with the brief description of synopsis and outline the survey on empirical models for energy demand. The econometric model used in KEEI's short-term energy forecast is outlined, followed by the result of estimations. The 2001 energy demand forecast is predicted in detail by sectors and energy types. In the year 2001, weak demand is projected to continue through the First Half, and pick up its pace of growth only in the Second Half. Projected total demand is 201.3 million TOE or 4.4% growth. In the last section, the major policy issues are summarized in three sub-sections: the restructuring in energy industry, the security of energy demand and supply, international energy cooperation including south-north energy cooperation. (author). 86 refs., 43 figs., 73 tabs.

  15. An overview of world future energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jenkin, F.P.

    1995-01-01

    The World Energy Council Commission's report Energy for Tomorrow's World was published in September 1993. The Commission's three year study of world energy problems involved both bottom-up studies, undertaken by groups of experts in nine main regions of the world, and top-down studies of global aspects. The latter included the preparation of energy demand and supply projections up to the study horizon of 2020, together with a brief look at prospects up to 2100. This Paper is based on the Commission's work. (author)

  16. Reevaluation of Turkey's hydropower potential and electric energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yueksek, Omer

    2008-01-01

    This paper deals with Turkey's hydropower potential and its long-term electric energy demand predictions. In the paper, at first, Turkey's energy sources are briefly reviewed. Then, hydropower potential is analyzed and it has been concluded that Turkey's annual economically feasible hydropower potential is about 188 TWh, nearly 47% greater than the previous estimation figures of 128 TWh. A review on previous prediction models for Turkey's long-term electric energy demand is presented. In order to predict the future demand, new increment ratio scenarios, which depend on both observed data and future predictions of population, energy consumption per capita and total energy consumption, are developed. The results of 11 prediction models are compared and analyzed. It is concluded that Turkey's annual electric energy demand predictions in 2010, 2015 and 2020 vary between 222 and 242 (average 233) TWh; 302 and 356 (average 334) TWh; and 440 and 514 (average 476) TWh, respectively. A discussion on the role of hydropower in meeting long-term demand is also included in the paper and it has been predicted that hydropower can meet 25-35% of Turkey's electric energy demand in 2020

  17. Modeling and forecasting natural gas demand in Bangladesh

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wadud, Zia; Dey, Himadri S.; Kabir, Md. Ashfanoor; Khan, Shahidul I.

    2011-01-01

    Natural gas is the major indigenous source of energy in Bangladesh and accounts for almost one-half of all primary energy used in the country. Per capita and total energy use in Bangladesh is still very small, and it is important to understand how energy, and natural gas demand will evolve in the future. We develop a dynamic econometric model to understand the natural gas demand in Bangladesh, both in the national level, and also for a few sub-sectors. Our demand model shows large long run income elasticity - around 1.5 - for aggregate demand for natural gas. Forecasts into the future also show a larger demand in the future than predicted by various national and multilateral organizations. Even then, it is possible that our forecasts could still be at the lower end of the future energy demand. Price response was statistically not different from zero, indicating that prices are possibly too low and that there is a large suppressed demand for natural gas in the country. - Highlights: → Natural gas demand is modeled using dynamic econometric methods, first of its kind in Bangladesh. → Income elasticity for aggregate natural gas demand in Bangladesh is large-around 1.5. → Demand is price insensitive, indicating too low prices and/or presence of large suppressed demand. → Demand forecasts reveal large divergence from previous estimates, which is important for planning. → Attempts to model demand for end-use sectors were successful only for the industrial sector.

  18. Modeling and forecasting natural gas demand in Bangladesh

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wadud, Zia, E-mail: ziawadud@yahoo.com [Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (Bangladesh); Dey, Himadri S. [University of Notre Dame (United States); Kabir, Md. Ashfanoor; Khan, Shahidul I. [Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (Bangladesh)

    2011-11-15

    Natural gas is the major indigenous source of energy in Bangladesh and accounts for almost one-half of all primary energy used in the country. Per capita and total energy use in Bangladesh is still very small, and it is important to understand how energy, and natural gas demand will evolve in the future. We develop a dynamic econometric model to understand the natural gas demand in Bangladesh, both in the national level, and also for a few sub-sectors. Our demand model shows large long run income elasticity - around 1.5 - for aggregate demand for natural gas. Forecasts into the future also show a larger demand in the future than predicted by various national and multilateral organizations. Even then, it is possible that our forecasts could still be at the lower end of the future energy demand. Price response was statistically not different from zero, indicating that prices are possibly too low and that there is a large suppressed demand for natural gas in the country. - Highlights: > Natural gas demand is modeled using dynamic econometric methods, first of its kind in Bangladesh. > Income elasticity for aggregate natural gas demand in Bangladesh is large-around 1.5. > Demand is price insensitive, indicating too low prices and/or presence of large suppressed demand. > Demand forecasts reveal large divergence from previous estimates, which is important for planning. > Attempts to model demand for end-use sectors were successful only for the industrial sector.

  19. Indonesia’s Electricity Demand Dynamic Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulistio, J.; Wirabhuana, A.; Wiratama, M. G.

    2017-06-01

    Electricity Systems modelling is one of the emerging area in the Global Energy policy studies recently. System Dynamics approach and Computer Simulation has become one the common methods used in energy systems planning and evaluation in many conditions. On the other hand, Indonesia experiencing several major issues in Electricity system such as fossil fuel domination, demand - supply imbalances, distribution inefficiency, and bio-devastation. This paper aims to explain the development of System Dynamics modelling approaches and computer simulation techniques in representing and predicting electricity demand in Indonesia. In addition, this paper also described the typical characteristics and relationship of commercial business sector, industrial sector, and family / domestic sector as electricity subsystems in Indonesia. Moreover, it will be also present direct structure, behavioural, and statistical test as model validation approach and ended by conclusions.

  20. Modelling and forecasting Turkish residential electricity demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dilaver, Zafer; Hunt, Lester C

    2011-01-01

    This research investigates the relationship between Turkish residential electricity consumption, household total final consumption expenditure and residential electricity prices by applying the structural time series model to annual data over the period from 1960 to 2008. Household total final consumption expenditure, real energy prices and an underlying energy demand trend are found to be important drivers of Turkish residential electricity demand with the estimated short run and the long run total final consumption expenditure elasticities being 0.38 and 1.57, respectively, and the estimated short run and long run price elasticities being -0.09 and -0.38, respectively. Moreover, the estimated underlying energy demand trend, (which, as far as is known, has not been investigated before for the Turkish residential sector) should be of some benefit to Turkish decision makers in terms of energy planning. It provides information about the impact of past policies, the influence of technical progress, the impacts of changes in consumer behaviour and the effects of changes in economic structure. Furthermore, based on the estimated equation, and different forecast assumptions, it is predicted that Turkish residential electricity demand will be somewhere between 48 and 80 TWh by 2020 compared to 40 TWh in 2008. - Research highlights: → Estimated short run and long run expenditure elasticities of 0.38 and 1.57, respectively. → Estimated short run and long run price elasticities of -0.09 and -0.38, respectively. → Estimated UEDT has increasing (i.e. energy using) and decreasing (i.e. energy saving) periods. → Predicted Turkish residential electricity demand between 48 and 80 TWh in 2020.

  1. The ESRI Energy Model

    OpenAIRE

    Di Cosmo, Valeri; Hyland, Marie

    2012-01-01

    PUBLISHED In Ireland, the energy sector has undergone significant change in the last forty years. In this period, there has been a significant increase in the demand for energy. This increase has been driven by economic and demographic factors. Although the current deep recession has quelled the upward trend in the demand for energy, a future economic recovery will bring these issues back into focus. This paper documents a model of the Irish energy sector which relates energy demand to re...

  2. Scenarios of energy demand and efficiency potential for Bulgaria

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tzvetanov, P.; Ruicheva, M.; Denisiev, M.

    1996-12-31

    The paper presents aggregated results on macroeconomic and final energy demand scenarios developed within the Bulgarian Country Study on Greenhouse Gas Emissions Mitigation, supported by US Country Studies Program. The studies in this area cover 5 main stages: (1) {open_quotes}Baseline{close_quotes} and {open_quotes}Energy Efficiency{close_quotes} socioeconomic and energy policy philosophy; (2) Modeling of macroeconomic and sectoral development till 2020; (3) Expert assessments on the technological options for energy efficiency increase and GHG mitigation in the Production, Transport and Households and Services Sectors; (4) Bottom-up modeling of final energy demand; and (5) Sectoral and overall energy efficiency potential and policy. Within the Bulgarian Country Study, the presented results have served as a basis for the final integration stage {open_quotes}Assessment of the Mitigation Policy and Measures in the Energy System of Bulgaria{close_quotes}.

  3. Data model for Demand Side Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simona-Vasilica OPREA

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Demand Side Management (DSM is a portfolio of measures to improve the energy system mainly at the consumption level. In this paper we propose a data model for DSM stating from the optimization methods approach in SMARTRADE project from different perspectives of several entities that include: Transmission System Operator (TSO/Distribution System Operators (DSOs perspectives in case of security/reliability concerns: minimum amount of load (or generation shedding; aggregators perspective in case of demand or generation shedding request: Which demand (or generators should be shed?; consumers perspective: load shifting (time-of-use (ToU tariffs and optimum contract strategies with the aggregators (also known as balancing responsible parties- BRP for load shedding.

  4. A model of residential energy end-use in Canada: Using conditional demand analysis to suggest policy options for community energy planners

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Newsham, Guy R.; Donnelly, Cara L.

    2013-01-01

    We applied conditional demand analysis (CDA) to estimate the average annual energy use of various electrical and natural gas appliances, and derived energy reductions associated with certain appliance upgrades and behaviours. The raw data came from 9773 Canadian households, and comprised annual electricity and natural gas use, and responses to >600 questions on dwelling and occupant characteristics, appliances, heating and cooling equipment, and associated behaviours. Replacing an old (>10 years) refrigerator with a new one was estimated to save 100 kW h/year; replacing an incandescent lamp with a CFL/LED lamp was estimated to save 20 kW h/year; and upgrading an old central heating system with a new one was estimated to save 2000 kW h/year. This latter effect was similar to that of reducing the number of walls exposed to the outside. Reducing the winter thermostat setpoint during occupied, waking hours was estimated to lower annual energy use by 200 kW h/°C-reduction, and lowering the thermostat setting overnight in winter relative to the setting during waking hours (night-time setback) was estimated to have a similar effect. This information may be used by policy-makers to optimize incentive programs, information campaigns, or other energy use change instruments. - Highlights: ► Conditional demand analysis (CDA) applied to data from 9773 Canadian households. ► Energy savings associated with certain appliance upgrades estimated. ► Energy savings associated with thermostat behaviours estimated. ► Policy-makers can use findings to optimize incentives and information campaigns

  5. Evaluation of climate change impacts on energy demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Taseska, Verica; Markovska, Natasa; Callaway, John M.

    2012-01-01

    change and the energy demand in Macedonia. The analyses are conducted using the MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation)-Macedonia model, with a focus on energy demand in commercial and residential sectors (mainly for heating and cooling). Three different cases are developed: 1) Base Case, which gives the optimal...... electricity production mix, taking into account country’s development plans (without climate change); 2) Climate Change Damage Case, which introduces the climate changes by adjusting the heating and cooling degree days inputs, consistent with the existing national climate scenarios; and 3) Climate Change...... Adaptation Case, in which the optimal electricity generation mix is determined by allowing for endogenous capacity adjustments in the model. This modeling exercise will identify the changes in the energy demand and in electricity generation mix in the Adaptation Case, as well as climate change damages...

  6. The energy demand in the Netherlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stoffers, M.J.

    1992-01-01

    Based on three scenarios for the global and economic developments the CPB (Dutch Central Planning Bureau) made projections of the Dutch energy demand to the year 2015. Factors of interest are the development of the energy prices, sectoral analysis of the economic growth and the government policy. The scenarios are Balanced Growth, characterized by a strong economic growth, sustainable economic development, and a dynamic technological development, the Global Shift scenario, characterized by a very dynamic technological development, and the European Renaissance scenario with a less dynamic development. 2 ills., 5 tabs., 2 refs

  7. Forecasting long-term energy demand of Croatian transport sector

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pukšec, Tomislav; Krajačić, Goran; Lulić, Zoran

    2013-01-01

    predictions for the Croatian transport sector are presented. Special emphasis is given to different influencing mechanisms, both legal and financial. The energy demand predictions presented in this paper are based on an end-use simulation model developed and tested with Croatia as a case study. The model...

  8. Energy Policy and Long Term Energy Demand in Croatian Households Sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Puksec, T.; Duic, N.

    2011-01-01

    Households sector in Croatia represents one of the largest consumers of energy today with around 75,75PJ, which is almost 29% of Croatia's final energy demand. Considering this consumption, implementing different mechanisms that would lead to improvements in energy efficiency in this sector seems relevant. In order to plan future energy systems it is important to know future possibilities and needs regarding energy demand for different sectors. Through this paper long term energy demand projections for Croatian households sector will be shown with a special emphasis on different mechanisms, both financial, legal but also technological that will influence future energy demand scenarios. It is important to see how these mechanisms influence, positive or negative, on future energy demand and which mechanism would be most influential. Energy demand predictions in this paper are based upon bottom-up approach model which combines and process large number of input data. The Model will be compared to Croatian national Energy Strategy and certain difference will be presented. One of the major conclusions shown in this paper is significant possibilities for energy efficiency improvements and lower energy demand in the future, based on careful and rational energy planning. Different financial, legal and technological mechanisms can lead to significant savings in the households sector which also leads to lesser greenhouse gas emissions and lower Croatian dependence on foreign fossil fuels. (author)

  9. Predicting residential energy and water demand using publicly available data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoşgör, Enes; Fischbeck, Paul S.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We built regression models using publicly available data as independent variables. • These models were used to predict monthly utility usage. • Such models can empower demand-side management program design, implementation and evaluation. • As well as planning for changes in energy and water demand. - Abstract: The overarching objective behind this work is to merge publicly available data with utility consumption histories and extract statistically significant insight on utility usage for a group of houses (n = 7022) in Gainesville, USA. This study investigates the statistical descriptive power of publicly available information for modeling utility usage. We first examine the deviations that arise from monthly utility usage reading dates as reading dates tend to shift and reading periods tend to vary across different months. Then we run regression models for individual months which in turn we compare to a yearly regression model which accounts for months as a dummy variable to understand whether a monthly model or a yearly model has a larger statistical power. It is shown that publicly available data can be used to model residential utility usage in the absence of highly private utility data. The obtained results are helpful for utilities for two reasons: (1) using the models to predict the monthly changes in demand; and (2) predicting utility usage can be translated into energy-use intensity as a first-cut metric for energy efficiency targeting in their service territory to meet their state demand reduction targets

  10. Energy Demand Forecasting: Combining Cointegration Analysis and Artificial Intelligence Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junbing Huang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Energy is vital for the sustainable development of China. Accurate forecasts of annual energy demand are essential to schedule energy supply and provide valuable suggestions for developing related industries. In the existing literature on energy use prediction, the artificial intelligence-based (AI-based model has received considerable attention. However, few econometric and statistical evidences exist that can prove the reliability of the current AI-based model, an area that still needs to be addressed. In this study, a new energy demand forecasting framework is presented at first. On the basis of historical annual data of electricity usage over the period of 1985–2015, the coefficients of linear and quadratic forms of the AI-based model are optimized by combining an adaptive genetic algorithm and a cointegration analysis shown as an example. Prediction results of the proposed model indicate that the annual growth rate of electricity demand in China will slow down. However, China will continue to demand about 13 trillion kilowatt hours in 2030 because of population growth, economic growth, and urbanization. In addition, the model has greater accuracy and reliability compared with other single optimization methods.

  11. Projection of future transport energy demand of Thailand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Limanond, Thirayoot; Jomnonkwao, Sajjakaj; Srikaew, Artit

    2011-01-01

    The objective of this study is to project transport energy consumption in Thailand for the next 20 years. The study develops log-linear regression models and feed-forward neural network models, using the as independent variables national gross domestic product, population and the numbers of registered vehicles. The models are based on 20-year historical data between years 1989 and 2008, and are used to project the trends in future transport energy consumption for years 2010-2030. The final log-linear models include only gross domestic product, since all independent variables are highly correlated. It was found that the projection results of this study were in the range of 54.84-59.05 million tonnes of oil equivalent, 2.5 times the 2008 consumption. The projected demand is only 61-65% of that predicted in a previous study, which used the LEAP model. This major discrepancy in transport energy demand projections suggests that projects related to this key indicator should take into account alternative projections, because these numbers greatly affect plans, policies and budget allocation for national energy management. - Research highlights: → Thailand transport energy consumption would increase to 54.4-59.1 MTOE in Year 2030. → The log-linear models yield a slightly higher projection than the ANN models. → The elasticity of transport energy demand with respect to GDP is 0.995.

  12. Projection of future transport energy demand of Thailand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Limanond, Thirayoot, E-mail: tlimanond@yahoo.co [School of Transportation Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 (Thailand); Jomnonkwao, Sajjakaj [School of Transportation Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 (Thailand); Srikaew, Artit [School of Electrical Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 (Thailand)

    2011-05-15

    The objective of this study is to project transport energy consumption in Thailand for the next 20 years. The study develops log-linear regression models and feed-forward neural network models, using the as independent variables national gross domestic product, population and the numbers of registered vehicles. The models are based on 20-year historical data between years 1989 and 2008, and are used to project the trends in future transport energy consumption for years 2010-2030. The final log-linear models include only gross domestic product, since all independent variables are highly correlated. It was found that the projection results of this study were in the range of 54.84-59.05 million tonnes of oil equivalent, 2.5 times the 2008 consumption. The projected demand is only 61-65% of that predicted in a previous study, which used the LEAP model. This major discrepancy in transport energy demand projections suggests that projects related to this key indicator should take into account alternative projections, because these numbers greatly affect plans, policies and budget allocation for national energy management. - Research highlights: {yields} Thailand transport energy consumption would increase to 54.4-59.1 MTOE in Year 2030. {yields} The log-linear models yield a slightly higher projection than the ANN models. {yields} The elasticity of transport energy demand with respect to GDP is 0.995.

  13. Energy demand and life quality in America

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spitalnik, J.

    2004-01-01

    Being considered an intermediate growth among projections of technological development expressive or of development restricted by ecological considerations, in the next 50 years, the demand of primary energy in the countries of the American continent arrived to value sufficiently high to allow to consent at levels of quality of life but next to those enjoyed at the moment in developed countries. There will be an expansion substantial of electric power demand that rots to require the installation, in countries of Latin America and Caribbean, of power plants with total capacity of the order of 400 GW until half-filled of century. The resource to the nuclear source was accentuated starting from the decade of 2020 and an enormous challenge for the governments of the region it will be the one of driving the construction of about 2.300 MW/year nuclear power plants between 2020 and 2050. (Author)

  14. Energy Supply and Demand Planning Aspects in Slovenia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tomsic, M.; Urbancic, A.; Al Mansour, F.; Merse, S.

    1997-01-01

    Slovenia can be considered a sufficiently homogenous region, even though specific climatic conditions exist in some parts of the country. Urban regions with high energy consumptions density differ in logistic aspects and in the potential of renewable energy sources. The difference in household energy demand is not significant. The planning study is based on the ''Integrated Resource Planning'' approach. A novel energy planning tool, the MESAP-PlaNet energy system model, supplemented by auxiliary models of technology penetration, electricity demand analysis and optimal expansion planning (the WASP package) has been used. The following segments has been treated in detail: industry, households and both central and local supply systems. Three intensities of energy efficiency strategies are compared: Reference, Moderate and Intensive. The intensity of demand side management programs influence the level and dynamics of activation of conservation potentials. Energy tax is considered in the Moderate and Intensive strategies. On the supply side the issue of domestic coal use is discussed. Reduction in the use of coal is linked to energy efficiency strategies. It has been found that energy efficiency strategies consistently improve economic efficiency, security of supply and protection of health and environment. The only conflicting area is social acceptability, due to both the energy tax reform and the loss of mining jobs. (author)

  15. A theoretical analysis of price elasticity of energy demand in multistage energy conversion systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lowe, R.

    2003-01-01

    The objective of this paper is an analytical exploration of the problem of price elasticity of energy demand in multi-stage energy conversion systems. The paper describes in some detail an analytical model of energy demand in such systems. Under a clearly stated set of assumptions, the model makes it possible to explore both the impacts of the number of sub-systems, and of varying sub-system elasticities on overall system elasticity. The analysis suggests that overall price elasticity of energy demand for such systems will tend asymptotically to unity as the number of sub-systems increases. (author)

  16. A theoretical analysis of price elasticity of energy demand in multi-stage energy conversion systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lowe, Robert

    2003-01-01

    The objective of this paper is an analytical exploration of the problem of price elasticity of energy demand in multi-stage energy conversion systems. The paper describes in some detail an analytical model of energy demand in such systems. Under a clearly stated set of assumptions, the model makes it possible to explore both the impacts of the number of sub-systems, and of varying sub-system elasticities on overall system elasticity. The analysis suggests that overall price elasticity of energy demand for such systems will tend asymptotically to unity as the number of sub-systems increases

  17. Potentials for energy savings and long term energy demand of Croatian households sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pukšec, Tomislav; Vad Mathiesen, Brian; Duić, Neven

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► Long term energy demand of Croatian households sector has been modelled. ► Developed model can describe the whole households sector. ► Main modes include heating, cooling, electrical appliances, cooking and hot water. ► Different scenarios regarding future energy demand are presented and discussed. -- Abstract: Households represent one of the most interesting sectors, when analyzing Croatia’s energy balance. It makes up one of the largest energy consumers with around 75 PJ per year, which is almost 29% of Croatia’s final energy demand. Considering this consumption, implementing various mechanisms, which would lead to improvements in energy efficiency of this sector, seems relevant. In order to plan future energy systems, important would be to know future possibilities and needs regarding energy demand of different sectors. Through this paper, long term energy demand projections of Croatian households sector will be shown. Focus of the paper will be on various mechanisms influencing future energy demand scenarios. Important would be to quantify this influence, whether positive or negative, and see which mechanisms would be the most significant. Energy demand projections in this paper are based upon bottom-up approach model which combines and processes a large number of input data. The model will be compared to Croatian National Energy Strategy and certain differences and conclusions will be presented. One of the major conclusions shown in this paper is significant possibilities for energy efficiency improvements and lower energy demand in the future, based on careful and rational energy planning. Different financial, legal and technological mechanisms can lead to significant savings in the households sector which leads to lower GHG emissions and lower Croatian dependence on foreign fossil fuels.

  18. The timing and societal synchronisation of energy demand

    OpenAIRE

    Mattioli, G; Shove, E; Torriti, J

    2014-01-01

    It is increasingly important to know about when energy is used in the home, at work and on the move. Issues of time and timing have not featured strongly in energy policy analysis and in modelling, much of which has focused on estimating and reducing total average annual demand per capita. If smarter ways of balancing supply and demand are to take hold, and if we are to make better use of decarbonised forms of supply, it is essential to understand and intervene in patterns of societal synchro...

  19. Factors influencing energy demand in dairy farming | Kraatz | South ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The efficiency of energy utilization is one of the key indicators for developing more sustainable agricultural practices. Factors influencing the energy demand in dairy farming are the cumulative energy demand for feed-supply, milk yield as well as the replacement rate of cows. The energy demand of dairy farming is ...

  20. Stochastic optimization of energy hub operation with consideration of thermal energy market and demand response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vahid-Pakdel, M.J.; Nojavan, Sayyad; Mohammadi-ivatloo, B.; Zare, Kazem

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Studying heating market impact on energy hub operation considering price uncertainty. • Investigating impact of implementation of heat demand response on hub operation. • Presenting stochastic method to consider wind generation and prices uncertainties. - Abstract: Multi carrier energy systems or energy hubs has provided more flexibility for energy management systems. On the other hand, due to mutual impact of different energy carriers in energy hubs, energy management studies become more challengeable. The initial patterns of energy demands from grids point of view can be modified by optimal scheduling of energy hubs. In this work, optimal operation of multi carrier energy system has been studied in the presence of wind farm, electrical and thermal storage systems, electrical and thermal demand response programs, electricity market and thermal energy market. Stochastic programming is implemented for modeling the system uncertainties such as demands, market prices and wind speed. It is shown that adding new source of heat energy for providing demand of consumers with market mechanism changes the optimal operation point of multi carrier energy system. Presented mixed integer linear formulation for the problem has been solved by executing CPLEX solver of GAMS optimization software. Simulation results shows that hub’s operation cost reduces up to 4.8% by enabling the option of using thermal energy market for meeting heat demand.

  1. A bi-level stochastic scheduling optimization model for a virtual power plant connected to a wind–photovoltaic–energy storage system considering the uncertainty and demand response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ju, Liwei; Tan, Zhongfu; Yuan, Jinyun; Tan, Qingkun; Li, Huanhuan; Dong, Fugui

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Our research focuses on Virtual Power Plant (VPP). • Virtual Power Plant consists of WPP, PV, CGT, ESSs and DRPs. • Robust optimization theory is introduced to analyze uncertainties. • A bi-level stochastic scheduling optimization model is proposed for VPP. • Models are built to measure the impacts of ESSs and DERPs on VPP operation. - Abstract: To reduce the uncertain influence of wind power and solar photovoltaic power on virtual power plant (VPP) operation, robust optimization theory (ROT) is introduced to build a stochastic scheduling model for VPP considering the uncertainty, price-based demand response (PBDR) and incentive-based demand response (IBDR). First, the VPP components are described including the wind power plant (WPP), photovoltaic generators (PV), convention gas turbine (CGT), energy storage systems (ESSs) and demand resource providers (DRPs). Then, a scenario generation and reduction frame is proposed for analyzing and simulating output stochastics based on the interval method and the Kantorovich distance. Second, a bi-level robust scheduling model is proposed with a double robust coefficient for WPP and PV. In the upper layer model, the maximum VPP operation income is taken as the optimization objective for building the scheduling model with the day-ahead prediction output of WPP and PV. In the lower layer model, the day-ahead scheduling scheme is revised with the actual output of the WPP and PV under the objectives of the minimum system net load and the minimum system operation cost. Finally, the independent micro-grid in a coastal island in eastern China is used for the simulation analysis. The results illustrate that the model can overcome the influence of uncertainty on VPP operations and reduce the system power shortage cost by connecting the day-ahead scheduling with the real-time scheduling. ROT could provide a flexible decision tool for decision makers, effectively addressing system uncertainties. ESSs could

  2. Energy demand on dairy farms in Ireland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Upton, J; Humphreys, J; Groot Koerkamp, P W G; French, P; Dillon, P; De Boer, I J M

    2013-10-01

    Reducing electricity consumption in Irish milk production is a topical issue for 2 reasons. First, the introduction of a dynamic electricity pricing system, with peak and off-peak prices, will be a reality for 80% of electricity consumers by 2020. The proposed pricing schedule intends to discourage energy consumption during peak periods (i.e., when electricity demand on the national grid is high) and to incentivize energy consumption during off-peak periods. If farmers, for example, carry out their evening milking during the peak period, energy costs may increase, which would affect farm profitability. Second, electricity consumption is identified in contributing to about 25% of energy use along the life cycle of pasture-based milk. The objectives of this study, therefore, were to document electricity use per kilogram of milk sold and to identify strategies that reduce its overall use while maximizing its use in off-peak periods (currently from 0000 to 0900 h). We assessed, therefore, average daily and seasonal trends in electricity consumption on 22 Irish dairy farms, through detailed auditing of electricity-consuming processes. To determine the potential of identified strategies to save energy, we also assessed total energy use of Irish milk, which is the sum of the direct (i.e., energy use on farm) and indirect energy use (i.e., energy needed to produce farm inputs). On average, a total of 31.73 MJ was required to produce 1 kg of milk solids, of which 20% was direct and 80% was indirect energy use. Electricity accounted for 60% of the direct energy use, and mainly resulted from milk cooling (31%), water heating (23%), and milking (20%). Analysis of trends in electricity consumption revealed that 62% of daily electricity was used at peak periods. Electricity use on Irish dairy farms, therefore, is substantial and centered around milk harvesting. To improve the competitiveness of milk production in a dynamic electricity pricing environment, therefore, management

  3. Main tendencies meeting future energy demands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flach, G.; Riesner, W.; Ufer, D.

    1989-09-01

    The economic development in the German Democratic Republic within the preceding 10 years has proved that future stable economic growth of about 4 to 4.5% per annum is only achievable by ways including methods of saving resources. This requires due to the close interdependences between the social development and the level of the development in the energy sector long-term growth rates of the national income of 4 to 4.5% per annum at primary energy growth rates of less than 1% per annum. It comprises three main tendencies: 1. Organization of a system with scientific-technical, technological, economic structural-political and educational measures ensuring in the long term less increase of the energy demand while keeping the economic growth at a constant level. 2. The long-term moderate extension and modernization of the GDR's energy basis is characterized by continuing use of the indigenous brown coal resources for the existing power plant capacities and for district heating. 3. The use of modern and safe nuclear power technologies defines a new and in future more and more important element of the energy basis. Currently about 10% of electricity in the GDR are covered by nuclear energy, in 2000 it will be one third, after 2000 the growth process will continue. The experience shows: If conditions of deepened scientific consideration of all technological processes and the use of modern diagnosis and computer technologies as well as permanent improvement of the safety-technological components and equipment are guaranteed an increasing use of such systems for the production of electricity and heat is socially acceptable. Ensuring a high level of education and technical training of everyone employed in the nuclear energy industry, strict safety restrictions and independent governmental control of these restrictions are important preconditions for the further development in this field. 3 refs, 5 tabs

  4. Study on energy demand function of korea considering replacement among energy sources and the structural changes of demand behavior

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moon, C.K. [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea, Republic of)

    1997-08-01

    If the necessity of careful study on energy function is mentioned, it should be stressed that energy investment not only needs a long gestation period but also, acts as the bottleneck in the production capacity of an economy when investment is not enough. Thereby, the adverse effect of an energy supply shortage is very big. Especially, the replacement/supplemental relationship between energy and capital which corresponds to the movement on the iso-quanta curve is believed to have a direct relation with the answer as to whether long-term economic development would be possible under an energy crisis and its influence on technology selection. Furthermore, the advantages of technological advances which correspond to the movement on the iso-quanta curve has a direct relation with the question whether long-term economic development would be possible under an energy crisis depending on whether its direction is toward energy-saving or energy-consuming. This study tackles the main issues and outlines of the quantitative approach method based on the accounting approach method for modeling energy demand, quantitative economics approach method, and production model. In order to model energy demand of the Korean manufacturing industry, related data was established and a positive analytical model is completed and presented based on these. 122 refs., 10 tabs.

  5. Reduction of peak energy demand based on smart appliances energy consumption adjustment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powroźnik, P.; Szulim, R.

    2017-08-01

    In the paper the concept of elastic model of energy management for smart grid and micro smart grid is presented. For the proposed model a method for reducing peak demand in micro smart grid has been defined. The idea of peak demand reduction in elastic model of energy management is to introduce a balance between demand and supply of current power for the given Micro Smart Grid in the given moment. The results of the simulations studies were presented. They were carried out on real household data available on UCI Machine Learning Repository. The results may have practical application in the smart grid networks, where there is a need for smart appliances energy consumption adjustment. The article presents a proposal to implement the elastic model of energy management as the cloud computing solution. This approach of peak demand reduction might have application particularly in a large smart grid.

  6. Influence of Shading on Cooling Energy Demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabczak, Sławomir; Bukowska, Maria; Proszak-Miąsik, Danuta; Nowak, Krzysztof

    2017-10-01

    The article presents an analysis of the building cooling load taking into account the variability of the factors affecting the size of the heat gains. In order to minimize the demand for cooling, the effect of shading elements installed on the outside on the windows and its effect on size of the cooling capacity of air conditioning system for the building has been estimated. Multivariate building cooling load calculations to determine the size of the reduction in cooling demand has derived. Determination of heat gain from the sun is laborious, but gives a result which reflects the influence of the surface transparent partitions, devices used as sunscreen and its location on the building envelope in relation to the world, as well as to the internal heat gains has great attention in obtained calculation. In this study, included in the balance sheet of solar heat gains are defined in three different shading of windows. Calculating the total demand cooling is made for variants assuming 0% shading baffles transparent, 50% shading baffles transparent external shutters at an angle of 45 °, 100% shading baffles transparent hours 12 from the N and E and from 12 from the S and W of the outer slat blinds. The calculation of the average hourly cooling load was taken into account the option assuming the hypothetical possibility of default by up to 10% of the time assumed the cooling season temperatures in the rooms. To reduce the consumption of electricity energy in the cooling system of the smallest variant identified the need for the power supply for the operation of the cooling system. Also assessed the financial benefits of the temporary default of comfort.

  7. On the Inclusion of Energy-Shifting Demand Response in Production Cost Models: Methodology and a Case Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    O'Connell, Niamh; Hale, Elaine; Doebber, Ian

    and communications, power system characteristics, regulatory environments, market structures, and business models. The work described in this report focuses on the enablement of such analysis from the production cost modeling perspective. In particular, we contribute a bottom-up methodology for modeling load...

  8. Demand forecast model based on CRM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Yuancui; Chen, Lichao

    2006-11-01

    With interiorizing day by day management thought that regarding customer as the centre, forecasting customer demand becomes more and more important. In the demand forecast of customer relationship management, the traditional forecast methods have very great limitation because much uncertainty of the demand, these all require new modeling to meet the demands of development. In this paper, the notion is that forecasting the demand according to characteristics of the potential customer, then modeling by it. The model first depicts customer adopting uniform multiple indexes. Secondly, the model acquires characteristic customers on the basis of data warehouse and the technology of data mining. The last, there get the most similar characteristic customer by their comparing and forecast the demands of new customer by the most similar characteristic customer.

  9. Aplikasi Model Sistem Dinamik Untuk Perencanaan Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Air Dalam Rangka Memenuhi Kebutuhan Supply Dan Demand Energi Listrik Di Kepulauan (Studi Kasus: Pulau Madura

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Addin Aditya

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the energy problems in Indonesia is uneven electrification ratio. According to PT. PLN (Persero East Java Distribution, Madura Island has the lowest electrification ratio in East Java, which is 59.02%. At present, Madura gets their electricity supply from Java Island through 2 high voltage sea cable circuit 150.000 volts with 2x100 MW capacity. However, that’s not enough to fulfill the Madura electricity demand. This research aims to develop a dynamic model of the hydroelectric power system in order to increase Madura’s electrification ratio. In this research, we use a dynamic system model to analyze both technical and economical aspect of developing the hydroelectric power system. A dynamic system model approach is a part of the concept which means it articulate the problem as a comprehensive system and relation between each element of it. We hope this research can pull the trigger of energy independence which is correspond with local resource especially in the eastern island of Indonesia.

  10. Measuring the security of energy exports demand in OPEC economies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dike, Jude Chukwudi

    2013-01-01

    One of the objectives of OPEC is the security of demand for the crude oil exports of its members. Achieving this objective is imperative with the projected decline in OECD countries' crude oil demand among other crude oil demand shocks. This paper focuses on determining the external crude oil demand security risks of OPEC member states. In assessing these risks, this study introduces two indexes. The first index, Risky Energy Exports Demand (REED), indicates the level of energy export demand security risks for OPEC members. It combines measures of export dependence, economic dependence, monopsony risk and transportation risk. The second index, Contribution to OPEC Risk Exposure (CORE), indicates the individual contribution of the OPEC members to OPEC's risk exposure. This study utilises the disaggregated index approach in measuring energy demand security risks for crude oil and natural gas and involves a country level analysis. With the disaggregated approach, the study shows that OPEC's energy export demand security risks differ across countries and energy types. - Highlights: • REED and CORE indexes are suitable measures for energy exports demand security risk. • The indexes show that energy demand security risk is different for each OPEC country. • The countries contribution to OPEC's energy demand security risk is also different. • The outcome is necessary for OPEC's common energy and climate change policies. • The outcome makes a case for oil demand security as a topical issue in the literature

  11. Teaching Aggregate Demand and Supply Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wells, Graeme

    2010-01-01

    The author analyzes the inflation-targeting model that underlies recent textbook expositions of the aggregate demand-aggregate supply approach used in introductory courses in macroeconomics. He shows how numerical simulations of a model with inflation inertia can be used as a tool to help students understand adjustments in response to demand and…

  12. Regional Energy Demand Responses To Climate Change. Methodology And Application To The Commonwealth Of Massachusetts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amato, A.D.; Ruth, M.; Kirshen, P.; Horwitz, J.

    2005-01-01

    Climate is a major determinant of energy demand. Changes in climate may alter energy demand as well as energy demand patterns. This study investigates the implications of climate change for energy demand under the hypothesis that impacts are scale dependent due to region-specific climatic variables, infrastructure, socioeconomic, and energy use profiles. In this analysis we explore regional energy demand responses to climate change by assessing temperature-sensitive energy demand in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. The study employs a two-step estimation and modeling procedure. The first step evaluates the historic temperature sensitivity of residential and commercial demand for electricity and heating fuels, using a degree-day methodology. We find that when controlling for socioeconomic factors, degree-day variables have significant explanatory power in describing historic changes in residential and commercial energy demands. In the second step, we assess potential future energy demand responses to scenarios of climate change. Model results are based on alternative climate scenarios that were specifically derived for the region on the basis of local climatological data, coupled with regional information from available global climate models. We find notable changes with respect to overall energy consumption by, and energy mix of the residential and commercial sectors in the region. On the basis of our findings, we identify several methodological issues relevant to the development of climate change impact assessments of energy demand

  13. Regional Energy Demand Responses To Climate Change. Methodology And Application To The Commonwealth Of Massachusetts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Amato, A.D.; Ruth, M. [Environmental Policy Program, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland, 3139 Van Munching Hall, College Park, MD (United States); Kirshen, P. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Tufts University, Anderson Hall, Medford, MA (United States); Horwitz, J. [Climatological Database Consultant, Binary Systems Software, Newton, MA (United States)

    2005-07-01

    Climate is a major determinant of energy demand. Changes in climate may alter energy demand as well as energy demand patterns. This study investigates the implications of climate change for energy demand under the hypothesis that impacts are scale dependent due to region-specific climatic variables, infrastructure, socioeconomic, and energy use profiles. In this analysis we explore regional energy demand responses to climate change by assessing temperature-sensitive energy demand in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. The study employs a two-step estimation and modeling procedure. The first step evaluates the historic temperature sensitivity of residential and commercial demand for electricity and heating fuels, using a degree-day methodology. We find that when controlling for socioeconomic factors, degree-day variables have significant explanatory power in describing historic changes in residential and commercial energy demands. In the second step, we assess potential future energy demand responses to scenarios of climate change. Model results are based on alternative climate scenarios that were specifically derived for the region on the basis of local climatological data, coupled with regional information from available global climate models. We find notable changes with respect to overall energy consumption by, and energy mix of the residential and commercial sectors in the region. On the basis of our findings, we identify several methodological issues relevant to the development of climate change impact assessments of energy demand.

  14. Automated Demand Response for Energy Sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-05-01

    technology), particularly when coupled with an installation’s microgrid control systems, could provide much needed stabilization. By causing load to...include advanced energy control systems that provide load reduction services to non-critical loads. The microgrid system will use these controls to...signals from the grid operator. Thus, the technology creates a dual- use model for advanced microgrid controls . 14 2.0 TECHNOLOGY DESCRIPTION This

  15. The Demand for Oil and Energy in Developing Countries

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Wolf, Jr., Charles; Relles, Daniel A; Navarro, Jaime

    1980-01-01

    ...? How will world demand be affected by the economic growth of the NOLDCs? In this report, the authors try to develop some reasonable forecasts of the range of NOLDC energy demands in the next 10 years...

  16. Optimising building net energy demand with dynamic BIPV shading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jayathissa, P.; Luzzatto, M.; Schmidli, J.; Hofer, J.; Nagy, Z.; Schlueter, A.

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: •Coupled analysis of PV generation and building energy using adaptive BIPV shading. •20–80% net energy saving compared to an equivalent static system. •The system can in some cases compensate for the entire heating/cooling/lighting load. •High resolution radiation simulation including impacts of module self shading. -- Abstract: The utilisation of a dynamic photovoltaic system for adaptive shading can improve building energy performance by controlling solar heat gains and natural lighting, while simultaneously generating electricity on site. This paper firstly presents an integrated simulation framework to couple photovoltaic electricity generation to building energy savings through adaptive shading. A high-resolution radiance and photovoltaic model calculates the photovoltaic electricity yield while taking into account partial shading between modules. The remaining solar irradiation that penetrates the window is used in a resistance-capacitance building thermal model. A simulation of all possible dynamic configurations is conducted for each hourly time step, of which the most energy efficient configuration is chosen. We then utilise this framework to determine the optimal orientation of the photovoltaic panels to maximise the electricity generation while minimising the building’s heating, lighting and cooling demand. An existing adaptive photovoltaic facade was used as a case study for evaluation. Our results report a 20–80% net energy saving compared to an equivalent static photovoltaic shading system depending on the efficiency of the heating and cooling system. In some cases the Adaptive Solar Facade can almost compensate for the entire energy demand of the office space behind it. The control of photovoltaic production on the facade, simultaneously with the building energy demand, opens up new methods of building management as the facade can control both the production and consumption of electricity.

  17. Demand-Side Flexibility for Energy Transitions: Ensuring the Competitive Development of Demand Response Options

    OpenAIRE

    Nursimulu, Anjali; Florin, Marie-Valentine; Vuille, François

    2015-01-01

    This report provides an overview of the current debates about demand response development, focusing primarily on Europe, with some comparisons to the United States. ‘Demand response’ includes strategies that involve end-use customers adapting or altering their electricity demand in response to grid conditions or market prices. It is viewed as a multi-purpose power-system resource that enhances the energy system’s capacity to cope with increasing demand, rising costs of conventional transmissi...

  18. Modelling the Demand for Money in Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Qayyum, Abdul

    2005-01-01

    The study estimates the dynamic demand for money (M2) function in Pakistan by employing cointegration analysis and error correction mechanism. The parameters of preferred model are found to be super-exogenous for the relevant class of interventions. It is found that the rate of inflation is an important determinant of money demand in Pakistan. The analysis reveals that the rates of interest, market rate, and bond yield are important for the long-run money demand behaviour. Since the preferred...

  19. Modeling and forecasting of electrical power demands for capacity planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Shobaki, S.; Mohsen, M.

    2007-01-01

    Jordan imports oil from neighboring countries for use in power production. As such, the cost of electricity production is high compared to oil producing countries. It is anticipated that Jordan will face major challenges in trying to meet the growing energy and electricity demands while also developing the energy sector in a way that reduces any adverse impacts on the economy, the environment and social life. This paper described the development of forecasting models to predict future generation and sales loads of electrical power in Jordan. Two models that could be used for the prediction of electrical energy demand in Amman, Jordan were developed and validated. An analysis of the data was also presented. The first model was based on the levels of energy generated by the National Electric Power Company (NEPCO) and the other was based on the levels of energy sold by the company in the same area. The models were compared and the percent error was presented. Energy demand was also forecasted across the next 60 months for both models. Results were then compared with the output of the in-house forecast model used by NEPCO to predict the levels of generated energy needed across the 60 months time period. It was concluded that the NEPCO model predicted energy demand higher than the validated generated data model by an average of 5.25 per cent. 8 refs., 5 tabs., 15 figs

  20. Modeling and forecasting of electrical power demands for capacity planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Al-Shobaki, S. [Hashemite Univ., Zarka (Jordan). Dept. of Industrial Engineering; Mohsen, M. [Hashemite Univ., Zarka (Jordan). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering

    2007-07-01

    Jordan imports oil from neighboring countries for use in power production. As such, the cost of electricity production is high compared to oil producing countries. It is anticipated that Jordan will face major challenges in trying to meet the growing energy and electricity demands while also developing the energy sector in a way that reduces any adverse impacts on the economy, the environment and social life. This paper described the development of forecasting models to predict future generation and sales loads of electrical power in Jordan. Two models that could be used for the prediction of electrical energy demand in Amman, Jordan were developed and validated. An analysis of the data was also presented. The first model was based on the levels of energy generated by the National Electric Power Company (NEPCO) and the other was based on the levels of energy sold by the company in the same area. The models were compared and the percent error was presented. Energy demand was also forecasted across the next 60 months for both models. Results were then compared with the output of the in-house forecast model used by NEPCO to predict the levels of generated energy needed across the 60 months time period. It was concluded that the NEPCO model predicted energy demand higher than the validated generated data model by an average of 5.25 per cent. 8 refs., 5 tabs., 15 figs.

  1. MITI revises outlooks for energy and power demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1987-01-01

    The Ministry of International Trade and Industry has revised downward its long-term outlook on energy supply and demand, lowering the estimated primary energy demand for fiscal 2000 from 600 million tons in oil equivalent to 540 MTOE, and reducing total power demand for fiscal 2000 from 899.1 billion kWh to 838 billion. In this content, the outlook for installed nuclear capacity has been revised downward from 62,000 MW to 53,500 MW. This revision of the power supply-demand outlook was reported on Oct. 1 to the supply and demand committee (Chairman - Yoshihiko Morozumi, Adviser to Nippon Schlum-berger) of the Electric Utility Industry Council; the energy supply-demand outlook was decided on Oct. 14 by the MITI Supply and Demand Subcommittee of the Advisory Committee for Energy and reported on Oct. 16 to the conference of ministers concerned with energy. (author)

  2. Applications and Energy Consumption of Demand Controlled Ventilation Systems. Modelling, Simulation and Implementation of Modular Built Dynamical VAV Systems and Control Strategies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soerensen, Bjoern R.

    2002-07-01

    This thesis discusses many topics of heating and ventilation. This is because the ventilation system is an integrated part of its host building. The functionality and effectiveness of the ventilation system are very much dependent on the building's architectural design, its internal materials, its occupants, its air tightness characteristics and its placement in the terrain. Although this thesis emphasizes strongly on VAV (Variable Air Volume) systems and, in particular, modelling and simulation of such systems, it touches a range of important HVAC related issues. The scope is however, limited to the field of comfort ventilation. That is because ventilation in industrial environments often is subject to separate regulations, and requires other and specialized methods of design and evaluation of ventilation performance. The main objectives have been to: (1) Develop mathematical models for VAV components and systems. (2) Evaluate existing and develop new strategies for VAV demand controlled ventilation by system simulation. (3) Investigate the potential for saving energy and the impact on indoor climate. The development of mathematical models and simulation of VAV systems are given quite much attention compared to the other topics discussed.

  3. The development of sectoral final and basic energy demand in the Federal Republic of Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reents, H.

    1977-08-01

    The detailed knowledge of the demand structures and their determining factors is an important precondition for estimating the possible developments of future energy demand. In this report the past developments of the final and basic energy demand in the different demand categories private households, commercial sector, industry and transportation will be analyzed. The demonstrated relations are the basis for a final energy demand model. With the help of this model a scenario of the future development of the final energy demand in the different sectors will be built. It is the aim of this scenario to show, how alternative actions (insulation, gas-heat pump) influence the future development of the final energy demand. (orig.) [de

  4. Energy demand and supply, energy policies, and energy security in the Republic of Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Hoseok; Shin, Eui-soon; Chung, Woo-jin

    2011-01-01

    The Republic of Korea (ROK) has enjoyed rapid economic growth and development over the last 30 years. Rapid increases in energy use-especially petroleum, natural gas, and electricity, and especially in the industrial and transport sectors-have fueled the ROK's economic growth, but with limited fossil fuel resources of its own, the result has been that the ROK is almost entirely dependent on energy imports. The article that follows summarizes the recent trends in the ROK energy sector, including trends in energy demand and supply, and trends in economic, demographic, and other activities that underlie trends in energy use. The ROK has been experiencing drastic changes in its energy system, mainly induced by industrial, supply security, and environmental concerns, and energy policies in the ROK have evolved over the years to address such challenges through measures such as privatization of energy-sector activities, emphases on enhancing energy security through development of energy efficiency, nuclear power, and renewable energy, and a related focus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The assembly of a model for evaluating energy futures in the ROK (ROK2010 LEAP) is described, and results of several policy-based scenarios focused on different levels of nuclear energy utilization are described, and their impacts on of energy supply and demand in the ROK through the year 2030 are explored, along with their implications for national energy security and long-term policy plans. Nuclear power continues to hold a crucial position in the ROK's energy policy, but aggressive expansion of nuclear power alone, even if possible given post-Fukushima global concerns, will not be sufficient to attain the ROK's 'green economy' and greenhouse gas emissions reduction goals. - Research highlights: →Rapid industrialization caused ROK energy use to increase over 10-fold during 1970-2000, with dramatic structural changes. → Growth in energy use after 2000 slowed to under 5%/yr, and

  5. The use of physical indicators for industrial energy demand scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schenk, Niels J.; Moll, Henri C.

    2007-01-01

    Scientific information on the size and nature of the threat of climate change is needed by politicians in order to weight their decisions. Computerised models are extremely useful tools to quantify the long-term effects of current policies. This paper describes a new modelling approach that allows formulation of industrial energy demand projections consistent with the assumptions for scenario drivers such as GDP and population. In the model, a level of industrial production is used as a key variable, and we define it in physical units, rather than in monetary units. The aim of this research is to increase insights that come with long-term energy demand scenarios. This research clearly shows that physical indicators provide additional insights in scenario analysis. The use of physical indicators instead of monetary indicators seems to affect the energy scenarios significantly. The differences with monetary indicators are larger in developing regions than in OECD regions. We conclude that an integrated energy and materials approach reveals developments that are hardly visible using a monetary approach. Moreover, this research shows the potential and benefits of the use of physical indicators for scenario development. (author)

  6. Intelligent demand side management of residential building energy systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinha, Maruti N.

    Advent of modern sensing technologies, data processing capabilities and rising cost of energy are driving the implementation of intelligent systems in buildings and houses which constitute 41% of total energy consumption. The primary motivation has been to provide a framework for demand-side management and to improve overall reliability. The entire formulation is to be implemented on NILM (Non-Intrusive Load Monitoring System), a smart meter. This is going to play a vital role in the future of demand side management. Utilities have started deploying smart meters throughout the world which will essentially help to establish communication between utility and consumers. This research is focused on investigation of a suitable thermal model of residential house, building up control system and developing diagnostic and energy usage forecast tool. The present work has considered measurement based approach to pursue. Identification of building thermal parameters is the very first step towards developing performance measurement and controls. The proposed identification technique is PEM (Prediction Error Method) based, discrete state-space model. The two different models have been devised. First model is focused toward energy usage forecast and diagnostics. Here one of the novel idea has been investigated which takes integral of thermal capacity to identify thermal model of house. The purpose of second identification is to build up a model for control strategy. The controller should be able to take into account the weather forecast information, deal with the operating point constraints and at the same time minimize the energy consumption. To design an optimal controller, MPC (Model Predictive Control) scheme has been implemented instead of present thermostatic/hysteretic control. This is a receding horizon approach. Capability of the proposed schemes has also been investigated.

  7. Short- and long-run elasticities in energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bentzen, J.; Engsted, T.

    1993-01-01

    Short- and long-run energy demand elasticities are estimated on Danish annual data for 1948-90. Energy consumption, the real price of energy and real GDP appear to be non-stationary variables. Cointegration and error-correction methods are therefore applied. All estimated parameters have the expected signs and magnitudes and no evidence is found of a structural break in energy demand caused by the increases in real energy prices since 1973/74. (author)

  8. Energy Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Energy models characterize the energy system, its evolution, and its interactions with the broader economy. The energy system consists of primary resources, including both fossil fuels and renewables; power plants, refineries, and other technologies to process and convert these r...

  9. Modelling curves of manufacturing feasibilities and demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soloninko K.S.

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The authors research the issue of functional properties of curves of manufacturing feasibilities and demand. Settlement of the problem, and its connection with important scientific and practical tasks. According to its nature, the market economy is unstable and is in constant movement. Economy has an effective instrument for explanation of changes in economic environment; this tool is called the modelling of economic processes. The modelling of economic processes depends first and foremost on the building of economic model which is the base for the formalization of economic process, that is, the building of mathematical model. The effective means for formalization of economic process is the creation of the model of hypothetic or imaginary economy. The building of demand model is significant for the market of goods and services. The problem includes the receiving (as the result of modelling definite functional properties of curves of manufacturing feasibilities and demand according to which one can determine their mathematical model. Another problem lies in obtaining majorant properties of curves of joint demand on the market of goods and services. Analysis of the latest researches and publications. Many domestic and foreign scientists dedicated their studies to the researches and building of the models of curves of manufacturing feasibilities and demand. In spite of considerable work of the scientists, such problems as functional properties of the curves and their practical use in modelling. The purpose of the article is to describe functional properties of curves of manufacturing feasibilities and demand on the market of goods and services on the base of modelling of their building. Scientific novelty and practical value. The theoretical regulations (for functional properties of curves of manufacturing feasibilities and demand received as a result of the present research, that is convexity, give extra practical possibilities in a microeconomic

  10. Long-range prospects of world energy demands and future energy sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kozaki, Yasuji

    1998-01-01

    The long-range prospects for world energy demands are reviewed, and the major factors which are influential in relation to energy demands are discussed. The potential for various kinds of conventional and new energy sources such as fossil fuels, solar energies, nuclear fission, and fusion energies to need future energy demands is also discussed. (author)

  11. Long-range outlook of energy demands and supplies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-01-01

    An interim report on the long-range outlook of energy demands and supplies in Japan as prepared by an ad hoc committee, Advisory Committee for Energy was given for the period up to the year 2000. As the energy demands in terms of crude oil, the following figures are set: 460 million kl for 1990, 530 million kl for 1995, and 600 million kl for 2000. In Japan, without domestic energy resources, over 80% of the primary energy has been imported; the reliance on Middle East where political situation is unstable, for petroleum is very large. The following things are described. Background and policy; energy demands in industries, transports, and people's livelihood; energy supplies by coal, nuclear energy, petroleum, etc.; energy demand/supply outlook for 2000. (Mori, K.)

  12. Influence of India’s transformation on residential energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhattacharyya, Subhes C.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • The middle income group emerges as the dominant segment by 2030. • Commercial residential energy demand increases 3–4 folds compared to 2010. • Electricity and LPG demand grows above 6% per year in the reference scenario. • India faces the potential of displacing the domination of biomass by 2030. - Abstract: India’s recent macro-economic and structural changes are transforming the economy and bringing significant changes to energy demand behaviour. Life-style and consumption behaviour are evolving rapidly due to accelerated economic growth in recent times. The population structure is changing, thereby offering the country with the potential to reap the population dividend. The country is also urbanising rapidly, and the fast-growing middle class segment of the population is fuelling consumerism by mimicking international life-styles. These changes are likely to have significant implications for energy demand in the future, particularly in the residential sector. Using the end-use approach of demand analysis, this paper analyses how residential energy demand is likely to evolve as a consequence of India’s transformation and finds that by 2030, India’s commercial energy demand in the residential sector can quadruple in the high scenario compared to the demand in 2010. Demand for modern fuels like electricity and liquefied petroleum gas is likely to grow at a faster rate. However, there is a window of opportunity to better manage the evolution of residential demand in India through energy efficiency improvement

  13. Modelling of demand response and market power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kristoffersen, B.B.; Donslund, B.; Boerre Eriksen, P.

    2004-01-01

    Demand-side flexibility and demand response to high prices are prerequisites for the proper functioning of the Nordic power market. If the consumers are unwilling to respond to high prices, the market may fail the clearing, and this may result in unwanted forced demand disconnections. Being the TSO of Western Denmark, Eltra is responsible of both security of supply and the design of the power market within its area. On this basis, Eltra has developed a new mathematical model tool for analysing the Nordic wholesale market. The model is named MARS (MARket Simulation). The model is able to handle hydropower and thermal production, nuclear power and wind power. Production, demand and exchanges modelled on an hourly basis are new important features of the model. The model uses the same principles as Nord Pool (The Nordic Power Exchange), including the division of the Nordic countries into price areas. On the demand side, price elasticity is taken into account and described by a Cobb-Douglas function. Apart from simulating perfect competition markets, particular attention has been given to modelling imperfect market conditions, i.e. exercise of market power on the supply side. Market power is simulated by using game theory, including the Nash equilibrium concept. The paper gives a short description of the MARS model. Besides, focus is on the application of the model in order to illustrate the importance of demand response in the Nordic market. Simulations with different values of demand elasticity are compared. Calculations are carried out for perfect competition and for the situation in which market power is exercised by the large power producers in the Nordic countries (oligopoly). (au)

  14. Causality relationship between energy demand and economic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper attempts to examine the causal relationship between electricity demand and economic growth in Nigeria using data for 1970 – 2003. The study uses the Johansen cointegration VAR approach. The ADF and Phillips – Perron test statistics were used to test for stationarity of the data. It was found that the data were ...

  15. Essays on economic development, energy demand, and the environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medlock, Kenneth Barry, III

    2000-10-01

    The rapid expansion of industry at the outset of economic development and the subsequent growth of the transportation and residential and commercial sectors dictate both the rate at which energy demand increases and the composition of primary fuel sources used to meet secondary requirements. Each of these factors each has an impact on the pollution problems that nations may face. Growth in consumer wealth, however, appears to eventually lead to a shift in priorities. In particular, the importance of the environment begins to take precedent over the acquisition of goods. Accordingly, cleaner energy alternatives are sought out. The approach taken here is to determine the energy profile of an average nation, and apply those results to a model of economic growth. Dematerialization of production and saturation of consumer bundles results in declining rates of growth of energy demand in broadly defined end-use sectors. The effects of technological change in fossil fuel efficiency, fossil fuel recovery, and 'backstop' energy resources on economic growth and the emissions of carbon dioxide are then analyzed. A central planner is assumed to optimize the consumption of goods and services subject to capital and resource constraints. Slight perturbations in the parameters are used to determine their local elasticities with respect to different endogenous variables, and give an indication of the effects of changes in the various assumptions.

  16. Supply based on demand dynamical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levi, Asaf; Sabuco, Juan; Sanjuán, Miguel A. F.

    2018-04-01

    We propose and numerically analyze a simple dynamical model that describes the firm behaviors under uncertainty of demand. Iterating this simple model and varying some parameter values, we observe a wide variety of market dynamics such as equilibria, periodic, and chaotic behaviors. Interestingly, the model is also able to reproduce market collapses.

  17. Global energy demand and its constraints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drenckhahn, Wolfgang; Pyc, Ireneusz; Riedle, Klaus

    2009-01-01

    This paper will address how the energy needs are covered today and will also present scenarios for tomorrow. Better technologies can stretch the limited energy resources, reduce the ecological impact and improve the security of supply for many countries depending on energy imports. Many of these efficient technologies are available today but need time and often financial support to penetrate the market, when not cost competitive. The other important lever is increasing the share of renewable and nuclear energy. (orig.)

  18. MODELING THE DEMAND FOR E85 IN THE UNITED STATES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Changzheng [ORNL; Greene, David L [ORNL

    2013-10-01

    How demand for E85 might evolve in the future in response to changing economics and policies is an important subject to include in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). This report summarizes a study to develop an E85 choice model for NEMS. Using the most recent data from the states of Minnesota, North Dakota, and Iowa, this study estimates a logit model that represents E85 choice as a function of prices of E10 and E85, as well as fuel availability of E85 relative to gasoline. Using more recent data than previous studies allows a better estimation of non-fleet demand and indicates that the price elasticity of E85 choice appears to be higher than previously estimated. Based on the results of the econometric analysis, a model for projecting E85 demand at the regional level is specified. In testing, the model produced plausible predictions of US E85 demand to 2040.

  19. Energy demand : analysis, management and conservation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Munasinghe, Mohan

    1990-01-01

    The papers in this book are expected make useful contributions to energy research and policy whether they are driven with the objective of augmenting supplies to reduce oil dependence, to increase the economic benefit per unit of energy consumed, or to reduce the impact of energy use on the environment. Papers relevant to INIS subject scopes are indexed separately. (original)

  20. Willingness to pay and price elasticities of demand for energy-efficient appliances: Combining the hedonic approach and demand systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Galarraga, Ibon, E-mail: ibon.galarraga@bc3research.org; Gonzalez-Eguino, Mikel, E-mail: mikel.gonzalez@bc3research.org; Markandya, Anil, E-mail: anil.markandya@bc3research.org

    2011-12-15

    This article proposes a combined approach for estimating willingness to pay for the attributes represented by energy efficiency labels and providing reliable price elasticities of demand (own and cross) for close substitutes (e.g. those with low energy efficiency and those with higher energy efficiency). This is done by using the results of the hedonic approach together with the Quantity Based Demand System (QBDS) model. The elasticity results obtained with the latter are then compared with those simulated using the Linear Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/AIDS). The methodology is applied to the dishwasher market in Spain: it is found that 15.6% of the final price is actually paid for the energy efficiency attribute. This accounts for about Euro 80 of the average market price. The elasticity results confirm that energy efficient appliances are more price elastic than regular ones. - Highlights: > The article shows a combined approach for estimating willingness to pay for energy efficiency labels and price elasticities. > The results of the hedonic approach is used together with the Quantity Based Demand System (QBDS) model. > The elasticity results are compared with those simulated using the Linear Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/AIDS). > The methodology is applied to the dishwasher market in Spain.

  1. The Distributed Geothermal Market Demand Model (dGeo): Documentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McCabe, Kevin [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mooney, Meghan E [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sigrin, Benjamin O [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Gleason, Michael [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Liu, Xiaobing [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2017-11-06

    The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed the Distributed Geothermal Market Demand Model (dGeo) as a tool to explore the potential role of geothermal distributed energy resources (DERs) in meeting thermal energy demands in the United States. The dGeo model simulates the potential for deployment of geothermal DERs in the residential and commercial sectors of the continental United States for two specific technologies: ground-source heat pumps (GHP) and geothermal direct use (DU) for district heating. To quantify the opportunity space for these technologies, dGeo leverages a highly resolved geospatial database and robust bottom-up, agent-based modeling framework. This design is consistent with others in the family of Distributed Generation Market Demand models (dGen; Sigrin et al. 2016), including the Distributed Solar Market Demand (dSolar) and Distributed Wind Market Demand (dWind) models. dGeo is intended to serve as a long-term scenario-modeling tool. It has the capability to simulate the technical potential, economic potential, market potential, and technology deployment of GHP and DU through the year 2050 under a variety of user-defined input scenarios. Through these capabilities, dGeo can provide substantial analytical value to various stakeholders interested in exploring the effects of various techno-economic, macroeconomic, financial, and policy factors related to the opportunity for GHP and DU in the United States. This report documents the dGeo modeling design, methodology, assumptions, and capabilities.

  2. Three Essays Examining Household Energy Demand and Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Anthony G.

    This dissertation consists of three essays examining household energy decisions and behavior. The first essay examines the adoption of energy efficient Energy Star home appliances by U.S. households. Program effectiveness requires that consumers be aware of the labeling scheme and also change their purchase decisions based on label information. The first essay examines the factors associated with consumer awareness of the Energy Star label of recently purchased major appliances and the factors associated with the choice of Energy Star labeled appliances. The findings suggest that eliminating identified gaps in Energy Star appliance adoption would result in house electricity cost savings of $164 million per year and associated carbon emission reductions of about 1.1 million metric tons per year. The second essay evaluates household energy security and the effectiveness of the Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP), the single largest energy assistance program available to poor households within the United States. Energy security is conceptually akin to the well-known concept of food security. Rasch models and household responses to energy security questions in the 2005 Residential Energy Consumption Survey are used to generate an energy insecurity index that is consistent with those found in the food insecurity literature. Participating in LIHEAP is found to significantly reduce household energy insecurity score in the index. Further, simulations show that the elimination of the energy assistance safety net currently available to households increases the number of energy insecure house- holds by over 16 percent. The third essay develops a five equation demand system to estimate household own-price, cross-price and income elasticities between electricity, natural gas, food at home, food away from home, and non-durable commodity groups. Household cross-price elasticities between energy and food commodities are of particular importance. Energy price shocks

  3. Understanding errors in EIA projections of energy demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fischer, Carolyn; Herrnstadt, Evan; Morgenstern, Richard [Resources for the Future, 1616 P St. NW, Washington, DC 20036 (United States)

    2009-08-15

    This paper investigates the potential for systematic errors in the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) widely used Annual Energy Outlook, focusing on the near- to mid-term projections of energy demand. Based on analysis of the EIA's 22-year projection record, we find a fairly modest but persistent tendency to underestimate total energy demand by an average of 2 percent per year after controlling for projection errors in gross domestic product, oil prices, and heating/cooling degree days. For 14 individual fuels/consuming sectors routinely reported by the EIA, we observe a great deal of directional consistency in the errors over time, ranging up to 7 percent per year. Electric utility renewables, electric utility natural gas, transportation distillate, and residential electricity show significant biases on average. Projections for certain other sectors have significant unexplained errors for selected time horizons. Such independent evaluation can be useful for validating analytic efforts and for prioritizing future model revisions. (author)

  4. Heuristic Scheduling in Grid Environments: Reducing the Operational Energy Demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodenstein, Christian

    In a world where more and more businesses seem to trade in an online market, the supply of online services to the ever-growing demand could quickly reach its capacity limits. Online service providers may find themselves maxed out at peak operation levels during high-traffic timeslots but too little demand during low-traffic timeslots, although the latter is becoming less frequent. At this point deciding which user is allocated what level of service becomes essential. The concept of Grid computing could offer a meaningful alternative to conventional super-computing centres. Not only can Grids reach the same computing speeds as some of the fastest supercomputers, but distributed computing harbors a great energy-saving potential. When scheduling projects in such a Grid environment however, simply assigning one process to a system becomes so complex in calculation that schedules are often too late to execute, rendering their optimizations useless. Current schedulers attempt to maximize the utility, given some sort of constraint, often reverting to heuristics. This optimization often comes at the cost of environmental impact, in this case CO 2 emissions. This work proposes an alternate model of energy efficient scheduling while keeping a respectable amount of economic incentives untouched. Using this model, it is possible to reduce the total energy consumed by a Grid environment using 'just-in-time' flowtime management, paired with ranking nodes by efficiency.

  5. The structure of residential energy demand in Greece

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rapanos, Vassilis T.; Polemis, Michael L.

    2006-01-01

    This paper attempts to shed light on the determinants of residential energy demand in Greece, and to compare it with some other OECD countries. From the estimates of the short-run and long-run elasticities of energy demand for the period 1965-1999, we find that residential energy demand appears to be price inelastic. Also, we do not find evidence of a structural change probably because of the low efficiency of the energy sector. We find, however, that the magnitude of the income elasticity varies substantially between Greece and other OECD countries

  6. Stochastic–multiobjective market equilibrium analysis of a demand response program in energy market under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu, Ming-Che; Lu, Su-Ying; Chen, Yen-Haw

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Analyze the impact of a demand response program under uncertainty. • Stochastic Nash–Cournot competition model is formulated. • Case study of the Taiwanese electric power market is conducted. • Demand response decreases power price, generation, and emissions. • Demand uncertainty increases energy price and supply risk in the results. - Abstract: In the electricity market, demand response programs are designed to shift peak demand and enhance system reliability. A demand response program can reduce peak energy demand, power transmission congestion, or high energy-price conditions by changing consumption patterns. The purpose of this research is to analyze the impact of a demand response program in the energy market, under demand uncertainty. A stochastic–multiobjective Nash–Cournot competition model is formulated to simulate demand response in an uncertain energy market. Then, Karush–Kuhn–Tucker optimality conditions and a linear complementarity problem are derived for the stochastic Nash–Cournot model. Accordingly, the linear complementarity problem is solved and its stochastic market equilibrium solution is determined by using a general algebraic modeling system. Additionally, the case of the Taiwanese electric power market is taken up here, and the results show that a demand response program is capable of reducing peak energy consumption, energy price, and carbon dioxide emissions. The results show that demand response program decreases electricity price by 2–10%, total electricity generation by 0.5–2%, and carbon dioxide emissions by 0.5–2.5% in the Taiwanese power market. In the simulation, demand uncertainty leads to an 2–7% increase in energy price and supply risk in the market. Additionally, tradeoffs between cost and carbon dioxide emissions are presented.

  7. Sectoral energy demand studies: Application of the end-use approach to Asian countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-01-01

    Events since August 1990 have shown that the world is still dependent on oil despite efforts to decrease that dependency since the oil crisis of 1973 and 1979. Thirteen countries participated in the REDP (UNDP-funded Regional Energy Development Programme) energy planning activities called ''Sectoral energy demand studies'' in which country teams benefited from training in energy data analysis, sectoral accounting of energy demand, and forecasting with the use of MEDEE-S model. This publication documents the training materials on sectoral energy demand series. It includes eight chapters which were indexed separately. Refs, figs, tabs

  8. Meeting energy demands: chaos round the corner

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Petrick, A J

    1976-02-01

    In this interview with Coal Gold and Base Minerals, Dr. Petrick talks about several aspects of his recent report and indicates that it will only be in the next 20 or 30 years that the real energy crisis will appear. He goes on to warn of possible chaos if energy is continually squandered throughout the world.

  9. Demand for oil and energy in developing countries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wolf, C. Jr.; Relles, D.A.; Navarro, J.

    1980-05-01

    How much of the world's oil and energy supply will the non-OPEC less-developed countries (NOLDCs) demand in the next decade. Will their requirements be small and thus fairly insignificant compared with world demand, or large and relatively important. How will world demand be affected by the economic growth of the NOLDCs. In this report, we try to develop some reasonable forecasts of NOLDC energy demands in the next 10 years. Our focus is mainly on the demand for oil, but we also give some attention to the total commercial energy requirements of these countries. We have tried to be explicit about the uncertainties associated with our forecasts, and with the income and price elasticities on which they are based. Finally, we consider the forecasts in terms of their implications for US policies concerning the NOLDCs and suggest areas of future research on NOLDC energy issues.

  10. Long term energy demand projections for croatian transport sector

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Puksec, Tomislav; Mathiesen, Brian Vad; Duic, Neven

    2011-01-01

    Transport sector in Croatia represents one of the largest consumers of energy today with a share of almost one third of final energy demand. That is why improving energy efficiency and implementing different mechanisms that would lead to energy savings in this sector would be relevant. Through th...

  11. Optimal Energy Management of Combined Cooling, Heat and Power in Different Demand Type Buildings Considering Seasonal Demand Variations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akhtar Hussain

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, an optimal energy management strategy for a cooperative multi-microgrid system with combined cooling, heat and power (CCHP is proposed and has been verified for a test case of building microgrids (BMGs. Three different demand types of buildings are considered and the BMGs are assumed to be equipped with their own combined heat and power (CHP generators. In addition, the BMGs are also connected to an external energy network (EEN, which contains a large CHP, an adsorption chiller (ADC, a thermal storage tank, and an electric heat pump (EHP. By trading the excess electricity and heat energy with the utility grid and EEN, each BMG can fulfill its energy demands. Seasonal energy demand variations have been evaluated by selecting a representative day for the two extreme seasons (summer and winter of the year, among the real profiles of year-round data on electricity, heating, and cooling usage of all the three selected buildings. Especially, the thermal energy management aspect is emphasized where, bi-lateral heat trading between the energy supplier and the consumers, so-called energy prosumer concept, has been realized. An optimization model based on mixed integer linear programming has been developed for minimizing the daily operation cost of the EEN while fulfilling the energy demands of the BMGs. Simulation results have demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed strategy.

  12. Remarks on economic growth and energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller, W.

    1979-01-01

    An energy policy according to the principles of decoupling is impossible without an increase in reasonable and profitable power application. It is also impossible without increased nuclear energy. Energy policy according to the principles of decoupling connects the natural growth tendency of a liberally arranged industry with the natural limits of the production factor 'nature'. Energy policy is the very sphere where tomorrow's necessities must be planned today. If in long range, a constant level of energy production struturised different from today's can be assumed, then this is future-bound. For it takes into consideration today tomorrow's necessities. This is the only guarantee we have for our industry to be able to grow tomorrow. On the basis of historical experience, an economic system will believe in the goal of a constant energy supply just as it was believing in abounding in energy up to day. The structure of the growth might change in long term. But accepting the thoughts of decoupling, progress will come. (orig./HP) [de

  13. Energy demand in the world of tomorrow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oehme, W.

    1979-01-01

    The ability to make use of energy has been one of the main incentives of human development - a matter of course which was never thought about until the availability of energy became uncertain. This explains why people feel deeply concerned when hearing or reacting the words 'energy' and 'future'. Formerly, these words had been connected with the hope for a better future - nowadays people are afraid that their present standard of living may turn out to be nothing but a stage of transition. (orig.) [de

  14. Technological progress and long-term energy demand - a survey of recent approaches and a Danish case

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klinge Jacobsen, Henrik

    2001-01-01

    This paper discusses di!erent approaches to incorporating technological progress in energy-economy models and the e!ecton long-term energy demand projections. Approaches to modelling based on an exogenous annual change of energy e$ciencyto an endogenous explanation of innovation for energy...... technologies are covered. Technological progress is an important issue for modelling long-term energy demand and is often characterised as the main contributor to the di!erent energy demand forecasts from di!erent models. New economic theoretical developments in the "elds of endogenous growth and industrial...... description, two models of residential energy demand in Denmark are compared. A Danish macroeconometric model is compared to a technological vintage model that is covering electric appliances and residential heating demand. The energy demand projection of the two models diverges, and the underlying...

  15. The development of demand elasticity model for demand response in the retail market environment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Babar, M.; Nguyen, P.H.; Kamphuis, I.G.

    2015-01-01

    In the context of liberalized energy market, increase in distributed generation, storage and demand response has expanded the price elasticity of demand, thus causing the addition of uncertainty to the supply-demand chain of power system. In order to cope with the challenges of demand uncertainty

  16. Empirical Analysis of Renewable Energy Demand in Ghana with Autometrics

    OpenAIRE

    Ishmael Ackah; Mcomari Asomani

    2015-01-01

    Increased investment in renewable energy has been identified as a potential solution to the intermittent power supply in Ghana. Recently, a Renewable Energy Act has been passed which has a target of 10% of renewable energy component in Ghana’s energy mix by 2020. Whilst effort is been made to enhance supply through feed in tariffs, education and tax reduction on renewable energy related equipment, there is the need to understand the drivers of renewable energy demand. Due to dearth of studie...

  17. Spatial analysis of the electrical energy demand in Greece

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tyralis, Hristos; Mamassis, Nikos; Photis, Yorgos N.

    2017-01-01

    The Electrical Energy Demand (EED) of the agricultural, commercial and industrial sector in Greece, as well as its use for domestic activities, public and municipal authorities and street lighting are analysed spatially using Geographical Information System and spatial statistical methods. The analysis is performed on data which span from 2008 to 2012 and have annual temporal resolution and spatial resolution down to the NUTS (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics) level 3. The aim is to identify spatial patterns of the EED and its transformations such as the ratios of the EED to socioeconomic variables, i.e. the population, the total area, the population density and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Based on the analysis, Greece is divided in five regions, each one with a different development model, i.e. Attica and Thessaloniki which are two heavily populated major poles, Thessaly and Central Greece which form a connected geographical region with important agricultural and industrial sector, the islands and some coastal areas which are characterized by an important commercial sector and the rest Greek areas. The spatial patterns can provide additional information for policy decision about the electrical energy management and better representation of the regional socioeconomic conditions. - Highlights: • We visualize spatially the Electrical Energy Demand (EED) in Greece. • We apply spatial analysis methods to the EED data. • Spatial patterns of the EED are identified. • Greece is classified in five distinct groups, based on the analysis. • The results can be used for optimal planning of the electric system.

  18. The relationship between agricultural technology and energy demand in Pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zaman, Khalid; Khan, Muhammad Mushtaq; Ahmad, Mehboob; Rustam, Rabiah

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this study was two fold: (i) to investigate the casual relationship between energy consumption and agricultural technology factors, and (ii) electricity consumption and technological factors in the agricultural sector of Pakistan. The study further evaluates four alternative but equally plausible hypotheses, each with different policy implications. These are: (i) Agricultural technology factors cause energy demand (the conventional view), (ii) energy demand causes technological factors, (iii) There is a bi-directional causality between the two variables and (iv) Both variables are causality independent. By applying techniques of Cointegration and Granger causality tests on energy demand (i.e., total primary energy consumption and electricity consumption) and agricultural technology factors (such as, tractors, fertilizers, cereals production, agriculture irrigated land, high technology exports, livestock; agriculture value added; industry value added and subsides) over a period of 1975–2010. The results infer that tractor and energy demand has bi-directional relationship; while irrigated agricultural land; share of agriculture and industry value added and subsides have supported the conventional view i.e., agricultural technology cause energy consumption in Pakistan. On the other hand, neither fertilizer consumption and high technology exports nor energy demand affect each others. Government should form a policy of incentive-based supports which might be a good policy for increasing the use of energy level in agriculture. - Highlights: ► Find the direction between green technology factors and energy demand in Pakistan. ► The results indicate that there is a strong relationship between them. ► Agriculture machinery and energy demand has bi-directional relationship. ► Green technology causes energy consumption i.e., unidirectional relationship. ► Agriculture expansion is positive related to total primary energy consumption.

  19. Continental integration and energy demand in the United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Manning, D.J.

    2004-01-01

    This presentation highlighted some of the major issues regarding energy demand in the United States and continental integration. The energy markets in Canada and the United States are economically integrated with large cross-border investment. Therefore, the energy infrastructure can be significantly affected by inconsistencies between the two countries in policy, regulatory processes and fiscal regimes. The author discussed the inelasticity in the natural gas demand in the United States in the near-term, and how natural gas consumption, particularly for power generation, is greater than North America's supply capacity. New supplies such as liquefied natural gas and arctic gas are needed to meet growing demands. The role of renewable energy technologies and energy efficiency was also discussed. It was emphasized that imbalances in supply and demand inevitably lead to price volatility and that high prices are a major obstacle to economic growth. tabs., figs

  20. Mexico's long-term energy outlook : results of a detailed energy supply and demand simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conzelmann, G.; Quintanilla, J.; Conde, L.A.; Fernandez, J.; Mar, E.; Martin del Campo, C.; Serrato, G.; Ortega, R.

    2006-01-01

    This article discussed the results of a bottom-up analysis of Mexico's energy markets which was conducted using an energy and power evaluation program. The program was used to develop energy market forecasts to the year 2025. In the first phase of the study, dynamic optimization software was used to determine the optimal, least-cost generation system expansion path to meet growing demand for electricity. A separate model was used to determine the optimal generating strategy of mixed hydro-thermal electric power systems. In phase 2, a nonlinear market-based approach was used to determine the energy supply and demand balance for the entire energy system, as well as the response of various segments of the energy system to changes in energy price and demand levels. Basic input parameters included information on the energy system structure; base-year energy statistics; and, technical and policy constraints. A total of 14 scenarios were modelled to examine variations in load growth, sensitivities to changes in projected fuel prices, variations in assumed natural gas availability, system reliability targets, and the potential for additional nuclear capacity. Forecasts for the entire energy system were then developed for 4 scenarios: (1) reference case; (2) limited gas scenario; (3) renewable energy; and (4) additional nuclear power generation capacity. Results of the study showed that Mexico's crude oil production is projected to increase annually by 1 per cent to 2025. Imports of petroleum products resulting from the country's rapidly growing transportation sector will increase. Demand for natural gas is expected to outpace projected domestic production. The long-term market outlook for Mexico's electricity industry shows a heavy reliance on natural gas-based generating technologies. It was concluded that alternative results for a constrained-gas scenario showed a substantial shift to coal-based generation and associated effects on the natural gas market. 4 refs., 26

  1. Optimal supply and demand investments in municipal energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rolfsman, Bjoern

    2004-01-01

    In many municipalities, there are district heating networks, which are quite commonly supplied by combined heat and power plants (CHP). A district heating network contains buildings of different types. In this paper, one such municipal energy system is analysed. In order to provide space heating and domestic hot water, investments could be made on the supply side in power plants, or on the demand side in the buildings, for example in the form of extra wall insulation. The electricity from the CHP plants is supplied to the municipality but can also be sold to the electricity market, and electricity can, of course, also be bought from the market. The variation in price on the spot market over any given day is significant. The need for district heat in the building stock also varies, for example due to climatic conditions. The energy system in the case study is analysed with a mixed integer linear programming model. The model has 3 h time steps in order to reflect diurnal variations, and an entire year is analysed. A case study is presented for the city of Linkoeping in Sweden. On the demand side, the options are: extra wall insulation, extra attic insulation and better types of windows. The building stock is divided into nine categories

  2. Energy demand projection of China using a path-coefficient analysis and PSO–GA approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu Shiwei; Zhu Kejun; Zhang Xian

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► The effect mechanism of China’s energy demand is investigated detailedly. ► A hybrid algorithm PSO–GA optimal energy demands estimating model for China. ► China’s energy demand will reach 4.48 billion tce in 2015. ► The proposed method forecast shows its superiority compared with others. - Abstract: Energy demand projection is fundamental to rational energy planning formulation. The present study investigates the direct and indirect effects of five factors, namely GDP, population, proportion of industrial, proportion of urban population and coal percentage of total energy consumption on China’s energy demand, implementing a path-coefficient analysis. On this basis, a hybrid algorithm, Particle Swarm Optimization and Genetic Algorithm optimal Energy Demand Estimating (PSO–GA EDE) model, is proposed for China. The coefficients of the three forms of the model (linear, exponential and quadratic model) are optimized by proposed PSO–GA. To obtain a combinational prediction of three forms, a departure coefficient method is applied to get the combinational weights. The results show that the China’s energy demand will be 4.48 billion tce in 2015. Furthermore; the proposed method forecast shows its superiority compared with other single optimization method such as GA, PSO or ACO and multiple linear regressions.

  3. Report on the planning of Senegal's energy demand by MAED

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanouté, Mamadou

    2012-01-01

    This study was carried out to strengthen the capacities of the participants in the implementation of a global energy balance of a country using the MAED model. The training which saw the participation of two teams (Senegal and Mali) took place from 30 July to 17 August 2012. The aim of this study is to: 1. Develop future scenarios on the volution of energy consumption. 2. Propose concrete measures to enable the country to face Soaring prices of petroleum products. 3. Streamlining and distributing energy consumption in a safe and sustainable manner. 4. Better planning for energy demand. Also, this study showed that the household sector occupies the leading position in terms of energy consumption. The Agriculture sector does not consume much energy because of the lack of modernization that prevails in the agricultural process with the use of rudimentary tools when tractors are used in developed countries. However, given the objectives of the State of Senegal to revive the economy of Senegal, there are significant changes in all sectors. The share of agriculture in GDP tends to decline in the future as the share of services increases slightly. In the household sector, it should be stressed that the use of modern biomass tends to increase in the coming decades to the detriment of traditional fuels which follow a stagnant trend.

  4. Managing the growing energy demand - The case of Egypt

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    El-Kholy, Hosni; Faried, Ragy

    2010-09-15

    The electric energy consumption rate in Egypt has an average increase of 7% per year through the last three decades. In order to satisfy the ever increasing energy demand, several actions were, and have to be taken. These actions have to be carried out in parallel. The one having the greatest effect is the measures carried out for energy conservation and loss reduction. Diversifying the energy source such as utilization of Renewable Energy technologies can contribute to satisfying the demand and extending the hydro-carbon reserves life. Regional integration of electrical networks will save expenditures used to build additional power plants.

  5. Measuring and controlling unfairness in decentralized planning of energy demand

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pournaras, E.; Vasirani, M.; Kooij, R.E.; Aberer, K.

    2014-01-01

    Demand-side energy management improves robustness and efficiency in Smart Grids. Load-adjustment and load-shifting are performed to match demand to available supply. These operations come at a discomfort cost for consumers as their lifestyle is influenced when they adjust or shift in time their

  6. Projection of energy demand of the agricultural sector of Mato Grosso using the model of structural decomposition; Projecao da demanda energetica do setor agropecuario de Mato Grosso utilizando o modelo de decomposicao estrutural

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dorileo, Ivo Leandro [Universidade Federal do Mato Grosso (NIEPE/UFMT), Cuiaba, MT (Brazil). Nucleo Interdisciplinar de Estudos em Planejamento Energetico; Bajay, Sergio Valdir [Universidade Estadual de Campinas (NIPE/UNICAMP), SP (Brazil). Nucleo Interdisciplinar de Planejamento Energetico

    2006-07-01

    Agriculture in Mato Grosso is, currently, the main responsible for the high economic growth of the state's economy, sustaining population in rural areas and pushing industrialization. Around 30% of the state's GDP is provided by this sector. A retrospective analysis of the evolution of the economic and energy consumption related parameters involved in the structural decomposition forecasting model precedes, in this paper, a prospective analysis, up to the year 2012, using this model, of energy consumption in this sector in the State. The energy demand forecasts follow a structure of macro economic scenarios which correspond to several possibilities of the local GDP growth. (author)

  7. Modelling demand for crude oil products in Spain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pedregal, D.J.; Dejuan, O.; Gomez, N.; Tobarra, M.A.

    2009-01-01

    This paper develops an econometric model for the five most important crude oil products demand in Spain. The aim is the estimation of a range of elasticities of such demands that would serve as the basis for an applied general equilibrium model used for forecasting energy demand in a broader framework. The main distinctive features of the system with respect to previous literature are (1) it takes advantage of monthly information coming from very different information sources and (2) multivariate unobserved components (UC) models are implemented allowing for a separate analysis of long- and short-run relations. UC models decompose time series into a number of unobserved though economic meaningful components mainly trend, seasonal and irregular. A module is added to such structure to take into account the influence of exogenous variables necessary to compute price, cross and income elasticities. Since all models implemented are multivariate in nature, the demand components are allowed to interact among them through the system noises (similar to a seemingly unrelated equations model). The results show unambiguously that the main factor driving demand is real income with prices having little impact on energy consumption. (author)

  8. Modelling demand for crude oil products in Spain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pedregal, D.J. [Escuela Tecnica Superior de Ingenieros Industriales and Instituto de Matematica Aplicada a la Ciencia y la Ingenieria (IMACI), Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha (UCLM), Avenida Camilo Jose Cela s/n, 13071 Ciudad Real (Spain); Dejuan, O.; Gomez, N.; Tobarra, M.A. [Facultad de Ciencias Economicas y Empresariales, Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha (UCLM) (Spain)

    2009-11-15

    This paper develops an econometric model for the five most important crude oil products demand in Spain. The aim is the estimation of a range of elasticities of such demands that would serve as the basis for an applied general equilibrium model used for forecasting energy demand in a broader framework. The main distinctive features of the system with respect to previous literature are (1) it takes advantage of monthly information coming from very different information sources and (2) multivariate unobserved components (UC) models are implemented allowing for a separate analysis of long- and short-run relations. UC models decompose time series into a number of unobserved though economic meaningful components mainly trend, seasonal and irregular. A module is added to such structure to take into account the influence of exogenous variables necessary to compute price, cross and income elasticities. Since all models implemented are multivariate in nature, the demand components are allowed to interact among them through the system noises (similar to a seemingly unrelated equations model). The results show unambiguously that the main factor driving demand is real income with prices having little impact on energy consumption. (author)

  9. Energy Management in Smart Cities Based on Internet of Things: Peak Demand Reduction and Energy Savings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahapatra, Chinmaya; Moharana, Akshaya Kumar; Leung, Victor C M

    2017-12-05

    Around the globe, innovation with integrating information and communication technologies (ICT) with physical infrastructure is a top priority for governments in pursuing smart, green living to improve energy efficiency, protect the environment, improve the quality of life, and bolster economy competitiveness. Cities today faces multifarious challenges, among which energy efficiency of homes and residential dwellings is a key requirement. Achieving it successfully with the help of intelligent sensors and contextual systems would help build smart cities of the future. In a Smart home environment Home Energy Management plays a critical role in finding a suitable and reliable solution to curtail the peak demand and achieve energy conservation. In this paper, a new method named as Home Energy Management as a Service (HEMaaS) is proposed which is based on neural network based Q -learning algorithm. Although several attempts have been made in the past to address similar problems, the models developed do not cater to maximize the user convenience and robustness of the system. In this paper, authors have proposed an advanced Neural Fitted Q -learning method which is self-learning and adaptive. The proposed method provides an agile, flexible and energy efficient decision making system for home energy management. A typical Canadian residential dwelling model has been used in this paper to test the proposed method. Based on analysis, it was found that the proposed method offers a fast and viable solution to reduce the demand and conserve energy during peak period. It also helps reducing the carbon footprint of residential dwellings. Once adopted, city blocks with significant residential dwellings can significantly reduce the total energy consumption by reducing or shifting their energy demand during peak period. This would definitely help local power distribution companies to optimize their resources and keep the tariff low due to curtailment of peak demand.

  10. Energy Management in Smart Cities Based on Internet of Things: Peak Demand Reduction and Energy Savings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chinmaya Mahapatra

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Around the globe, innovation with integrating information and communication technologies (ICT with physical infrastructure is a top priority for governments in pursuing smart, green living to improve energy efficiency, protect the environment, improve the quality of life, and bolster economy competitiveness. Cities today faces multifarious challenges, among which energy efficiency of homes and residential dwellings is a key requirement. Achieving it successfully with the help of intelligent sensors and contextual systems would help build smart cities of the future. In a Smart home environment Home Energy Management plays a critical role in finding a suitable and reliable solution to curtail the peak demand and achieve energy conservation. In this paper, a new method named as Home Energy Management as a Service (HEMaaS is proposed which is based on neural network based Q-learning algorithm. Although several attempts have been made in the past to address similar problems, the models developed do not cater to maximize the user convenience and robustness of the system. In this paper, authors have proposed an advanced Neural Fitted Q-learning method which is self-learning and adaptive. The proposed method provides an agile, flexible and energy efficient decision making system for home energy management. A typical Canadian residential dwelling model has been used in this paper to test the proposed method. Based on analysis, it was found that the proposed method offers a fast and viable solution to reduce the demand and conserve energy during peak period. It also helps reducing the carbon footprint of residential dwellings. Once adopted, city blocks with significant residential dwellings can significantly reduce the total energy consumption by reducing or shifting their energy demand during peak period. This would definitely help local power distribution companies to optimize their resources and keep the tariff low due to curtailment of peak demand.

  11. Economic growth, regional disparities and energy demand in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sheng, Yu; Shi, Xunpeng; Zhang, Dandan

    2014-01-01

    Using the panel data of 27 provinces between 1978 and 2008, we employed a instrumental regression technique to examine the relationship between economic growth, energy demand/production and the related policies in China. The empirical results show that forming a cross-province integrated energy market will in general reduce the response of equilibrium user costs of energy products to their local demand and production, through cross-regional energy transfer (including both energy trade and cross-regional reallocation). In particular, reducing transportation costs and improving marketization level are identified as two important policy instruments to enhance the role of energy market integration. The findings support the argument for a more competitive cross-province energy transfer policies and calls for more developed energy connectivity and associate institutional arrangements within China. These policy implications may also be extended to the East Asia Summit region where energy market integration is being actively promoted. - Highlights: • Development driving energy demand has different impacts on energy prices than others. • EMI will reduce the response of equilibrium energy prices to local demand and production. • Reducing transportation costs and improving marketization level enhance the role of EMI. • More market competition and better physical and institutional connectivity are better. • Policy implications to China may be extended to the East Asia Summit region

  12. A semiparametric model of household gasoline demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wadud, Zia [Department of Civil Engineering, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka 1000 (Bangladesh); Noland, Robert B. [Alan M. Voorhees Transportation Center, Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 (United States); Graham, Daniel J. [Centre for Transport Studies, Dept of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom)

    2010-01-15

    Gasoline demand studies typically generate a single price and income elasticity for a country. It is however possible that these elasticities may differ among various socio-economic groups. At the same time, parametric gasoline demand models may not be flexible enough to capture the changes in price elasticities with different levels of income. This paper models US gasoline demand using more flexible semiparametric techniques, accommodating the possibility of differences in responses among households. The econometric model employs a non-parametric bivariate smoothing for price and income and a parametric representation of other explanatory variables. Possible heterogeneity in price and income elasticities is modelled through interacting price and income with demographic variables. Results show that price responses do vary with demographic variables such as income, multiple vehicle holding, presence of multiple wage earners or rural or urban residential locations. Households' responses to a price change decrease with higher income. Multiple vehicle and multiple earner households also show higher sensitivity to a price change. Households located in urban areas reduce consumption more than those in rural areas in response to an increase in price. Comparison of the flexible semiparametric model with a parametric translog model, however, reveals no significant differences between results, and the parametric models have the advantage of lower computational requirements and better interpretability. (author)

  13. Demand-Side Flexibility for Energy Transitions: Policy Recommendations for Developing Demand Response

    OpenAIRE

    Nursimulu, Anjali; Florin, Marie-Valentine; Vuille, François

    2016-01-01

    As a follow-up to IRGC's report on demand-side flexibility for energy transitions, this Policy Brief highlights that increasing flexibility in power systems is needed to accommodate higher shares of non-controllable and intermittent renewable generation, and that this requires changes to the market design and regulatory framework, to facilitate the development and deployment of appropriate technologies and market-based instruments (e.g. taxes and subsidies). The Policy Brief focuses on demand...

  14. Energy efficiency in the British housing stock: Energy demand and the Homes Energy Efficiency Database

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, Ian G.; Steadman, Philip J.; Bruhns, Harry; Summerfield, Alex J.; Lowe, Robert

    2013-01-01

    The UK Government has unveiled an ambitious retrofit programme that seeks significant improvement to the energy efficiency of the housing stock. High quality data on the energy efficiency of buildings and their related energy demand is critical to supporting and targeting investment in energy efficiency. Using existing home improvement programmes over the past 15 years, the UK Government has brought together data on energy efficiency retrofits in approximately 13 million homes into the Homes Energy Efficiency Database (HEED), along with annual metered gas and electricity use for the period of 2004–2007. This paper describes the HEED sample and assesses its representativeness in terms of dwelling characteristics, the energy demand of different energy performance levels using linked gas and electricity meter data, along with an analysis of the impact retrofit measures has on energy demand. Energy savings are shown to be associated with the installation of loft and cavity insulation, and glazing and boiler replacement. The analysis illustrates this source of ‘in-action’ data can be used to provide empirical estimates of impacts of energy efficiency retrofit on energy demand and provides a source of empirical data from which to support the development of national housing energy efficiency retrofit policies. - Highlights: • The energy efficiency level for 50% of the British housing stock is described. • Energy demand is influenced by size and age and energy performance. • Housing retrofits (e.g. cavity insulation, glazing and boiler replacements) save energy. • Historic differences in energy performance show persistent long-term energy savings

  15. Modeling and forecasting of electrical power demands for capacity planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Shobaki, Salman; Mohsen, Mousa

    2008-01-01

    This paper describes the development of forecasting models to predict future generation and electrical power consumption in Jordan. This is critical to production cost since power is generated by burning expensive imported oil. Currently, the National Electric Power Company (NEPCO) is using regression models that only accounts for trend dynamics in their planning of loads and demand levels. The models are simplistic and are based on generated energy historical levels. They produce results on yearly bases and do not account for monthly variability in demand levels. The paper presents two models, one based on the generated energy data and the other is based on the consumed energy data. The models account for trend, monthly seasonality, and cycle dynamics. Both models are compared to NEPCO's model and indicate that NEPCO is producing energy at levels higher than needed (5.25%) thus increasing the loss in generated energy. The developed models also show a 13% difference between the generated energy and the consumed energy that is lost due to transmission line and in-house consumption

  16. Modeling and forecasting of electrical power demands for capacity planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Al-Shobaki, Salman [Department of Industrial Engineering, Hashemite University, Zarka 13115 (Jordan); Mohsen, Mousa [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Hashemite University, Zarka 13115 (Jordan)

    2008-11-15

    This paper describes the development of forecasting models to predict future generation and electrical power consumption in Jordan. This is critical to production cost since power is generated by burning expensive imported oil. Currently, the National Electric Power Company (NEPCO) is using regression models that only accounts for trend dynamics in their planning of loads and demand levels. The models are simplistic and are based on generated energy historical levels. They produce results on yearly bases and do not account for monthly variability in demand levels. The paper presents two models, one based on the generated energy data and the other is based on the consumed energy data. The models account for trend, monthly seasonality, and cycle dynamics. Both models are compared to NEPCO's model and indicate that NEPCO is producing energy at levels higher than needed (5.25%) thus increasing the loss in generated energy. The developed models also show a 13% difference between the generated energy and the consumed energy that is lost due to transmission line and in-house consumption. (author)

  17. An electricity generation planning model incorporating demand response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Dong Gu; Thomas, Valerie M.

    2012-01-01

    Energy policies that aim to reduce carbon emissions and change the mix of electricity generation sources, such as carbon cap-and-trade systems and renewable electricity standards, can affect not only the source of electricity generation, but also the price of electricity and, consequently, demand. We develop an optimization model to determine the lowest cost investment and operation plan for the generating capacity of an electric power system. The model incorporates demand response to price change. In a case study for a U.S. state, we show the price, demand, and generation mix implications of a renewable electricity standard, and of a carbon cap-and-trade policy with and without initial free allocation of carbon allowances. This study shows that both the demand moderating effects and the generation mix changing effects of the policies can be the sources of carbon emissions reductions, and also shows that the share of the sources could differ with different policy designs. The case study provides different results when demand elasticity is excluded, underscoring the importance of incorporating demand response in the evaluation of electricity generation policies. - Highlights: ► We develop an electric power system optimization model including demand elasticity. ► Both renewable electricity and carbon cap-and-trade policies can moderate demand. ► Both policies affect the generation mix, price, and demand for electricity. ► Moderated demand can be a significant source of carbon emission reduction. ► For cap-and-trade policies, initial free allowances change outcomes significantly.

  18. Hierarchical Energy Management of Microgrids including Storage and Demand Response

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Songli Fan

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Battery energy storage (BES and demand response (DR are considered to be promising technologies to cope with the uncertainty of renewable energy sources (RES and the load in the microgrid (MG. Considering the distinct prediction accuracies of the RES and load at different timescales, it is essential to incorporate the multi-timescale characteristics of BES and DR in MG energy management. Under this background, a hierarchical energy management framework is put forward for an MG including multi-timescale BES and DR to optimize operation with the uncertainty of RES as well as load. This framework comprises three stages of scheduling: day-ahead scheduling (DAS, hour-ahead scheduling (HAS, and real-time scheduling (RTS. In DAS, a scenario-based stochastic optimization model is established to minimize the expected operating cost of MG, while ensuring its safe operation. The HAS is utilized to bridge DAS and RTS. In RTS, a control strategy is proposed to eliminate the imbalanced power owing to the fluctuations of RES and load. Then, a decomposition-based algorithm is adopted to settle the models in DAS and HAS. Simulation results on a seven-bus MG validate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

  19. Optimizing renewable energy, demand response and energy storage to replace conventional fuels in Ontario, Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richardson, David B.; Harvey, L.D. Danny

    2015-01-01

    Electricity systems with high penetrations of renewable energy require a mix of resources to balance supply with demand, and to maintain safe levels of system reliability. A load balancing methodology is developed to determine the optimal lowest-cost mix of renewable energy resources, demand response, and energy storage to replace conventional fuels in the Province of Ontario, Canada. Three successive cumulative scenarios are considered: the displacement of fossil fuel generation, the planned retirement of an existing nuclear reactor, and the electrification of the passenger vehicle fleet. The results show that each of these scenarios is achievable with energy generation costs that are not out of line with current and projected electricity generation costs. These transitions, especially that which proposes the electrification of the vehicle fleet, require significant investment in new generation, with installed capacities much higher than that of the current system. Transitions to mainly renewable energy systems require changes in our conceptualization of, and approach to, energy system planning. - Highlights: • Model three scenarios to replace conventional fuels with renewables, storage and DR (demand response). • Determine optimal low-cost mix of resources for each scenario. • Scenarios require much higher installed capacities than current system. • Energy transitions require changes in approach to energy system planning.

  20. Promotion COPERNIC Energy and Society the interrogations on the world demand evolution; Promotion COPERNIC Energie et Societe les interrogations sur l'evolution de la demande mondiale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2001-12-15

    In the framework of a prospective reflexion emergence on the energy demand, this document presents an analysis of the prospective approach and of recent studies: challenges, interests, limits, validity of the models and hypothesis and results relevance. With this analysis, the authors aim to identify the main interrogations bond to the world energy demand evolution. They then analyse these interrogations in the framework of a sectoral approach (agriculture, industry, transports, residential) in order to detail the demand and to forecast the evolution. Facing the consumption attitudes, they also suggest some new action avenues to favor a sustainable growth. (A.L.B.)

  1. Promotion COPERNIC Energy and Society the interrogations on the world demand evolution; Promotion COPERNIC Energie et Societe les interrogations sur l'evolution de la demande mondiale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2001-12-15

    In the framework of a prospective reflexion emergence on the energy demand, this document presents an analysis of the prospective approach and of recent studies: challenges, interests, limits, validity of the models and hypothesis and results relevance. With this analysis, the authors aim to identify the main interrogations bond to the world energy demand evolution. They then analyse these interrogations in the framework of a sectoral approach (agriculture, industry, transports, residential) in order to detail the demand and to forecast the evolution. Facing the consumption attitudes, they also suggest some new action avenues to favor a sustainable growth. (A.L.B.)

  2. DeMand: A tool for evaluating and comparing device-level demand and supply forecast models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Neupane, Bijay; Siksnys, Laurynas; Pedersen, Torben Bach

    2016-01-01

    Fine-grained device-level predictions of both shiftable and non-shiftable energy demand and supply is vital in order to take advantage of Demand Response (DR) for efficient utilization of Renewable Energy Sources. The selection of an effective device-level load forecast model is a challenging task......, mainly due to the diversity of the models and the lack of proper tools and datasets that can be used to validate them. In this paper, we introduce the DeMand system for fine-tuning, analyzing, and validating the device-level forecast models. The system offers several built-in device-level measurement...... datasets, forecast models, features, and errors measures, thus semi-automating most of the steps of the forecast model selection and validation process. This paper presents the architecture and data model of the DeMand system; and provides a use-case example on how one particular forecast model...

  3. Analysis of energy and utility service demands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1978-10-01

    The collection, analysis, and review of existing data on a community's service requirements are documented. The research focused on the analysis of energy-using activities including both micro activities such as space heating, cooking, lighting, and transportation; and macro activities such as providing shelter, health care, education, etc. The technical report describes the analytical framework developed for community description; describes an indexing system by which a catalog of services can be accessed; illustrates the application of the data to an existing community; and provides ancillary information on data availability. A catalog of data is presented which includes several sets of indices which facilitate access of data using various keys. Abstracts of 48 data sources are analyzed. Each abstract includes a description and evaluation of the data, a sampling of that data, an assessment as to how that data may be applied to other analyses, and a reference where the user can secure additional data. (MCW)

  4. The effectiveness of energy service demand reduction: A scenario analysis of global climate change mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fujimori, S.; Kainuma, M.; Masui, T.; Hasegawa, T.; Dai, H.

    2014-01-01

    A reduction of energy service demand is a climate mitigation option, but its effectiveness has never been quantified. We quantify the effectiveness of energy service demand reduction in the building, transport, and industry sectors using the Asia-Pacific Integrated Assessment/Computable General Equilibrium (AIM/CGE) model for the period 2015–2050 under various scenarios. There were two major findings. First, a 25% energy service demand reduction in the building, transport, and basic material industry sectors would reduce the GDP loss induced by climate mitigation from 4.0% to 3.0% and from 1.2% to 0.7% in 2050 under the 450 ppm and 550 ppm CO 2 equivalent concentration stabilization scenarios, respectively. Second, the effectiveness of a reduction in the building sector's energy service demand would be higher than those of the other sectors at the same rate of the energy service demand reduction. Furthermore, we also conducted a sensitivity analysis of different socioeconomic conditions, and the climate mitigation target was found to be a key determinant of the effectiveness of energy service demand reduction measures. Therefore, more certain climate mitigation targets would be useful for the decision makers who design energy service demand reduction measures. - Highlights: • The effectiveness of a reduction in energy service demand is quantified. • A 25% reduction in energy service demand would be equivalent to 1% of GDP in 2050. • Stringent mitigation increases the effectiveness of energy service demand reduction. • Effectiveness of a reduction in energy demand service is higher in the building sector

  5. Research on energy supply, demand and economy forecasting in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shiba, Tsuyoshi; Kamezaki, Hiroshi; Yuyama, Tomonori; Suzuki, Atsushi

    1999-10-01

    This project aims to do research on forecasts of energy demand structure and electricity generation cost in each power plant in Japan in the 21st century, considering constructing successful FBR scenario. During the process of doing research on forecasts of energy demand structure in Japan, documents published from organizations in inside and outside of Japan were collected. These documents include prospects of economic growth rate, forecasts of amount for energy supply and demand, the maximum amount of introducing new energy resources, CO2 regulation, and evaluation of energy best mixture. Organizations in Japan such as Economic Council and Japan Energy Economic Research Institute have provided long-term forecasts until the early 21st century. Meanwhile, organizations overseas have provided forecasts of economic structure, and demand and supply for energy in OECD and East Asia including Japan. In connection with forecasts of electricity generation cost in each power plant, views on the ultimate reserves and cost of resources are reviewed in this report. According to some views on oil reserves, making assumptions based on reserves/production ratio, the maximum length of the time that oil reserves will last is 150 years. In addition, this report provides summaries of cost and potential role of various resources, including solar energy and wind energy; and views on waste, safety, energy security-related externality cost, and the price of transferring CO2 emission right. (author)

  6. Energy demand in China: Comparison of characteristics between the US and China in rapid urbanization stage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, Boqiang; Ouyang, Xiaoling

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Energy demand characteristics of the US and China were compared. • Major factors affecting energy demand were examined based on the panel data and the cointegration models. • China’s energy demand would reach 5498.13 Mtce in 2020 and 6493.07 Mtce in 2030. • Urbanization can be an opportunity for low-carbon development in China. - Abstract: China’s energy demand has shown characteristics of rigid growth in the current urbanization stage. This paper applied the panel data model and the cointegration model to examine the determinants of energy demand in China, and then forecasts China’s energy demand based on the scenario analysis. Results demonstrate an inverted U-shaped relationship between energy demand and economic growth in the long term. In business as usual scenario, China’s energy consumption will reach 6493.07 million tons of coal equivalent in 2030. The conclusions can be drawn on the basis of the comparison of characteristics between the US and China. First, energy demand has rigid growth characteristics in the rapid urbanization stage. Second, coal-dominated energy structure of China will lead to the severe problems of CO 2 emissions. Third, rapid economic growth requires that energy prices should not rise substantially, so that energy conservation will be the major strategy for China’s low-carbon transition. Major policy implications are: first, urbanization can be used as an opportunity for low-carbon development; second, energy price reform is crucial for China’s energy sustainability

  7. Embedded generation for industrial demand response in renewable energy markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leanez, Frank J.; Drayton, Glenn

    2010-01-01

    Uncertainty in the electrical energy market is expected to increase with growth in the percentage of generation using renewable resources. Demand response can play a key role in giving stability to system operation. This paper discusses the embedded generation for industrial demand response in renewable energy markets. The methodology of the demand response is explained. It consists of long-term optimization and stochastic optimization. Wind energy, among all the renewable resources, is becoming increasingly popular. Volatility in the wind energy sector is high and this is explained using examples. Uncertainty in the wind market is shown using stochastic optimization. Alternative techniques for generation of wind energy were seen to be needed. Embedded generation techniques include co-generation (CHP) and pump storage among others. These techniques are analyzed and the results are presented. From these results, it is seen that investment in renewables is immediately required and that innovative generation technologies are also required over the long-term.

  8. Energy efficiency improvement potentials and a low energy demand scenario for the global industrial sector

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kermeli, Katerina; Graus, Wina H J; Worrell, Ernst

    2014-01-01

    The adoption of energy efficiency measures can significantly reduce industrial energy use. This study estimates the future industrial energy consumption under two energy demand scenarios: (1) a reference scenario that follows business as usual trends and (2) a low energy demand scenario that takes

  9. Report on energy supply and demand in Canada : 2002

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dion, M.; Lacroix, J.; Smalldridge, G.; Svab, J.; Cromey, N.

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of energy use in Canada. The year 1990 was used as a starting point because that is the base year for energy inventories for the Kyoto Protocol. Data was derived from monthly and quarterly surveys. The report describes data quality and methodology as well as energy conversion factors. It includes individual tables on primary and secondary energy for: coal, crude oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids, primary electricity, steam, coke, secondary electricity, refined petroleum products, non-energy refined petroleum products, solid wood waste, and spent liquor. The most recent data on energy demand and supply indicates that Canadians consumed energy for transportation twice as fast as the nation's industries did in the past 12 years. From 1990 to 2002, energy consumption in the transportation sector increased 22.7 per cent while demand in the industrial sector rose by 11.7 per cent. Canada's energy consumption increased 17.6 per cent from 1990 to 2002. In 2002, the transportation and industrial sectors each accounted for 30 per cent of total energy consumption. Consumption of natural gas, refined petroleum and coal increased 18.1 per cent, with the greatest increased being in natural gas. In 2002, electricity produced by water, nuclear power, wind and tidal action accounted for 25 per cent of energy consumption. Secondary electricity generation from fossil fuels increased steadily. The general increase in domestic demand for energy in 2002 was due to an increase in energy consumption by the industrial sector and by growing residential sales. In 2002, the rate of increase in energy consumption in Alberta was higher than in any other province due to a booming economy and rising population. Ontario consumed the most energy in 2002, accounting for 34 per cent of the country's energy demand

  10. Investigation of the process energy demand in polymer extrusion: A brief review and an experimental study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abeykoon, Chamil; Kelly, Adrian L.; Brown, Elaine C.; Vera-Sorroche, Javier; Coates, Phil D.; Harkin-Jones, Eileen; Howell, Ken B.; Deng, Jing; Li, Kang; Price, Mark

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Energy consumption and losses in polymer extrusion are discussed. • This compares energy consumption in polymer extrusion at different conditions. • The role of power factor on energy efficiency in polymer extrusion is explored. • Empirical models on extruder energy consumption are provided. • Computer modelling of energy consumption of polymer extrusion is performed. - Abstract: Extrusion is one of the fundamental production methods in the polymer processing industry and is used in the production of a large number of commodities in a diverse industrial sector. Being an energy intensive production method, process energy efficiency is one of the major concerns and the selection of the most energy efficient processing conditions is a key to reducing operating costs. Usually, extruders consume energy through the drive motor, barrel heaters, cooling fans, cooling water pumps, gear pumps, etc. Typically the drive motor is the largest energy consuming device in an extruder while barrel/die heaters are responsible for the second largest energy demand. This study is focused on investigating the total energy demand of an extrusion plant under various processing conditions while identifying ways to optimise the energy efficiency. Initially, a review was carried out on the monitoring and modelling of the energy consumption in polymer extrusion. Also, the power factor, energy demand and losses of a typical extrusion plant were discussed in detail. The mass throughput, total energy consumption and power factor of an extruder were experimentally observed over different processing conditions and the total extruder energy demand was modelled empirically and also using a commercially available extrusion simulation software. The experimental results show that extruder energy demand is heavily coupled between the machine, material and process parameters. The total power predicted by the simulation software exhibits a lagging offset compared with the

  11. Stochastic model of forecasting spare parts demand

    OpenAIRE

    Ivan S. Milojević; Rade V. Guberinić

    2012-01-01

    If demand is known for the whole planning period (complete information), then this type of demand or a supply system is deterministic. In the simplest cases, the demand per time unit is constant. If demand levels change over time following a precisely determined and pre-known principle, this type of demand is also classified as deterministic. This quality of demand is very rare. In most cases demand is the product of a process, for example TMS maintenance, whose progression cannot be predicte...

  12. Energy Demands and Efficiency Strategies in Data Center Buildings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shehabi, Arman [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2009-09-01

    for office or residential buildings. Estimates using a material-balance model match well with empirical results, indicating that the dominant particle sources and losses -- ventilation and filtration -- have been characterized. Measurements taken at a data center using economizers show nearly an order of magnitude increase in particle concentration during economizer activity. However, even with the increase, themeasured particle concentrations are still below concentration limits recommended in most industry standards. The research proceeds by exploring the feasibility of using economizers in data centers while simultaneously controlling particle concentrations with high-quality air filtration. Physical and chemical properties of indoor and outdoor particles were analyzed at a data center using economizers and varying levels of air filtration efficiency. Results show that when improved filtration is used in combination with an economizer, the indoor/outdoor concentration ratios for most measured particle types were similar to the measurements when using conventional filtration without economizers. An energy analysis of the data center reveals that, even during the summer months, chiller savings from economizer use greatly outweigh the increase in fan power associated with improved filtration. These findings indicate that economizer use combined with improved filtration couldsignificantly reduce data center energy demand while providing a level of protection from particles of outdoor origin similar to that observed with conventional design. The emphasis of the dissertation then shifts to evaluate the energy benefits of economizer use in data centers under different design strategies. Economizer use with high ventilation rates is compared against an alternative, water-side economizer design that does not affect indoor particle concentrations. Building energy models are employed to estimate energy savings of both economizer designs for data centers in

  13. Brazilian energy model

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-05-01

    A summary of the energy situation in Brazil is presented. Energy consumption rates, reserves of primary energy, and the basic needs and strategies for meeting energy self sufficiency are discussed. Conserving energy, increasing petroleum production, and utilizing other domestic energy products and petroleum by-products are discussed. Specific programs are described for the development and use of alcohol fuels, wood and charcoal, coal, schist, solar and geothermal energy, power from the sea, fresh biomass, special batteries, hydrogen, vegetable oil, and electric energy from water power, nuclear, and coal. Details of the energy model for 1985 are given. Attention is also given to the energy demands and the structure of global energy from 1975 to 1985.

  14. The world energy demand in 2007: How high oil prices impact the global energy demand? June 9, 2008

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    How high oil prices impact the global energy demand? The growth of energy demand continued to accelerate in 2007 despite soaring prices, to reach 2,8 % (+ 0,3 point compared to 2006). This evolution results from two diverging trends: a shrink in energy consumption in most of OECD countries, except North America, and a strong increase in emerging countries. Within the OECD, two contrasting trends can be reported, that compensate each other partially: the reduction of energy consumption in Japan (-0.8%) and in Europe (-1.2%), particularly significant in the EU-15 (-1.9%); the increase of energy consumption in North America (+2%). Globally, the OECD overall consumption continued to increase slightly (+0.5%), while electricity increased faster (2,1%) and fuels remained stable. Elsewhere, the strong energy demand growth remained very dynamic (+5% for the total demand, 8% for electricity only), driven by China (+7.3%). The world oil demand increased by 1% only, but the demand has focused even more on captive end usages, transports and petrochemistry. The world gasoline and diesel demand increased by around 5,7% in 2007, and represents 53% of the total oil products demand in 2007 (51% in 2006). If gasoline and diesel consumption remained quasi-stable within OECD countries, the growth has been extremely strong in the emerging countries, despite booming oil prices. There are mainly two factors explaining this evolution where both oil demand and oil prices increased: Weak elasticity-prices to the demand in transport and petrochemistry sectors Disconnection of domestic fuel prices in major emerging countries (China, India, Latin America) compared to world oil market prices Another striking point is that world crude oil and condensate production remained almost stable in 2007, hence the entire demand growth was supported by destocking. During the same period, the OPEC production decreased by 1%, mainly due to the production decrease in Saudi Arabia, that is probably more

  15. Energy demand analysis in the household, commercial and agriculture sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lapillonne, B.

    1991-01-01

    This chapter of the publication is dealing with Energy Demand Analysis in the Household, Commercial and Agricultural Sector. Per Capita total energy consumption in the residential and commercial sector is given and variation among countries are discussed. 12 figs, 1 tab

  16. Some ideas on the energy demand in the 21. century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frot, J.

    2007-01-01

    The author reviews different scenarios to quench the worldwide demand for energy. 4 scenarios have been studied for the 2000-2100 period. The scenarios differ on the importance given to concepts like: -) the behaviour towards future generations, -) the solidarity between rich and poor countries, -) the acknowledgement of the climate change, -) the risk of energy dearth, -) the improvement of energy efficiency, -) the necessity of gross national product growth, -) the public acceptance of nuclear power, and -) CO 2 sequestration. One of the scenarios is extremely courageous: politicians and population are aware of the great problems that are looming and take the right decisions quite early. This scenario leads to a demand of 18 Gtep/year in 2100. In the worst scenario people are reluctant to any change in their way to use energy, this scenario leads to a demand of 49 Gtep/year

  17. Adaptive heat pump and battery storage demand side energy management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobieczky, Florian; Lettner, Christian; Natschläger, Thomas; Traxler, Patrick

    2017-11-01

    An adaptive linear model predictive control strategy is introduced for the problem of demand side energy management, involving a photovoltaic device, a battery, and a heat pump. Moreover, the heating influence of solar radiation via the glass house effect is considered. Global sunlight radiation intensity and the outside temperature are updated by weather forecast data. The identification is carried out after adapting to a time frame witch sufficiently homogeneous weather. In this way, in spite of the linearity an increase in precision and cost reduction of up to 46% is achieved. It is validated for an open and closed loop version of the MPC problem using real data of the ambient temperature and the global radiation.

  18. Stochastic model of forecasting spare parts demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan S. Milojević

    2012-01-01

    hypothesis of the existence of phenomenon change trends, the next step in the methodology of forecasting is the determination of a specific growth curve that describes the regularity of the development in time. These curves of growth are obtained by the analytical representation (expression of dynamic lines. There are two basic stages in the process of expression and they are: - The choice of the type of curve the shape of which corresponds to the character of the dynamic order variation - the determination of the number of values (evaluation of the curve parameters. The most widespread method of forecasting is the trend extrapolation. The basis of the trend extrapolation is the continuing of past trends in the future. The simplicity of the trend extrapolation process, on the one hand, and the absence of other information on the other hand, are the main reasons why the trend extrapolation is used for forecasting. The trend extrapolation is founded on the following assumptions: - The phenomenon development can be presented as an evolutionary trajectory or trend, - General conditions that influenced the trend development in the past will not undergo substantial changes in the future. Spare parts demand forecasting is constantly being done in all warehouses, workshops, and at all levels. Without demand forecasting, neither planning nor decision making can be done. Demand forecasting is the input for determining the level of reserve, size of the order, ordering cycles, etc. The question that arises is the one of the reliability and accuracy of a forecast and its effects. Forecasting 'by feeling' is not to be dismissed if there is nothing better, but in this case, one must be prepared for forecasting failures that cause unnecessary accumulation of certain spare parts, and also a chronic shortage of other spare parts. All this significantly increases costs and does not provide a satisfactory supply of spare parts. The main problem of the application of this model is that each

  19. The aging US population and residential energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tonn, Bruce; Eisenberg, Joel

    2007-01-01

    This piece explores the relationships between a rapidly aging U.S. population and the demand for residential energy. Data indicate that elderly persons use more residential energy than younger persons. In this time of steeply rising energy costs, energy is an especially important financial issue for the elderly with low and/or fixed incomes. As the absolute number of elderly as well as their proportion of the total US population both continue to increase, energy and the elderly population looms as another energy policy challenge

  20. Motor fuel demand analysis - applied modelling in the European union

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chorazewiez, S.

    1998-01-01

    Motor fuel demand in Europe amounts to almost half of petroleum products consumption and to thirty percent of total final energy consumption. This study considers, Firstly, the energy policies of different European countries and the ways in which the consumption of motor gasoline and automotive gas oil has developed. Secondly it provides an abstract of demand models in the energy sector, illustrating their specific characteristics. Then it proposes an economic model of automotive fuel consumption, showing motor gasoline and automotive gas oil separately over a period of thirty years (1960-1993) for five main countries in the European Union. Finally, forecasts of consumption of gasoline and diesel up to the year 2020 are given for different scenarios. (author)

  1. Remote sensing inputs to water demand modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estes, J. E.; Jensen, J. R.; Tinney, L. R.; Rector, M.

    1975-01-01

    In an attempt to determine the ability of remote sensing techniques to economically generate data required by water demand models, the Geography Remote Sensing Unit, in conjunction with the Kern County Water Agency of California, developed an analysis model. As a result it was determined that agricultural cropland inventories utilizing both high altitude photography and LANDSAT imagery can be conducted cost effectively. In addition, by using average irrigation application rates in conjunction with cropland data, estimates of agricultural water demand can be generated. However, more accurate estimates are possible if crop type, acreage, and crop specific application rates are employed. An analysis of the effect of saline-alkali soils on water demand in the study area is also examined. Finally, reference is made to the detection and delineation of water tables that are perched near the surface by semi-permeable clay layers. Soil salinity prediction, automated crop identification on a by-field basis, and a potential input to the determination of zones of equal benefit taxation are briefly touched upon.

  2. Austria's Energy Perspectives - It's the Demand Side, Stupid

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lechner, H.

    2009-01-01

    During the last decade Austria made remarkable progress in developing renewable energy sources. But at the same time energy demand has steadily increased so that the share of renewables in the energy mix has remained more or less stable over the years. Rising energy demand and import dependence is also forecast in a business-as-usual scenario for the future. If Austria is to fulfill the EU obligatory target to increase the share of renewables up to 34% in 2020 (recently 25%) and to move on a sustainable, low-carbon track it will have to decrease energy consumption or at least stabilise it at the level of 2005. This requires considerable efforts to boost energy efficiency, especially in the building and transport sector.(author).

  3. Load Reduction, Demand Response and Energy Efficient Technologies and Strategies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boyd, Paul A.; Parker, Graham B.; Hatley, Darrel D.

    2008-11-19

    The Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) was tasked by the DOE Office of Electricity (OE) to recommend load reduction and grid integration strategies, and identify additional demand response (energy efficiency/conservation opportunities) and strategies at the Forest City Housing (FCH) redevelopment at Pearl Harbor and the Marine Corps Base Hawaii (MCBH) at Kaneohe Bay. The goal was to provide FCH staff a path forward to manage their electricity load and thus reduce costs at these FCH family housing developments. The initial focus of the work was at the MCBH given the MCBH has a demand-ratchet tariff, relatively high demand (~18 MW) and a commensurate high blended electricity rate (26 cents/kWh). The peak demand for MCBH occurs in July-August. And, on average, family housing at MCBH contributes ~36% to the MCBH total energy consumption. Thus, a significant load reduction in family housing can have a considerable impact on the overall site load. Based on a site visit to the MCBH and meetings with MCBH installation, FCH, and Hawaiian Electric Company (HECO) staff, recommended actions (including a "smart grid" recommendation) that can be undertaken by FCH to manage and reduce peak-demand in family housing are made. Recommendations are also made to reduce overall energy consumption, and thus reduce demand in FCH family housing.

  4. Saving money vs investing money: Do energy ratings influence consumer demand for energy efficient goods?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Panzone, Luca A.

    2013-01-01

    The article analyses economic barriers leading to the energy efficiency gap in the market for energy-using products by observing several million transactions in the UK over two years. The empirical exercise estimates AIDS models for refrigerators, washing machines, TVs, and light bulbs. Results indicate that market barriers are crucial in the demand for energy efficient options, and consumer response to changes in appliance prices, total expenditures, and energy prices depends on the possibility of behavioural adjustments in consumption. In contrast with the induced innovation hypothesis, current electricity prices can fail to induce innovation because of their short-term impact on disposable income, while consumers invest in energy efficiency when expecting electricity prices to rise in the future. - Highlights: • The article analyses economic barriers to energy efficiency in the UK. • Data refers to 2-year sales of refrigerators, washing machines, TV, and light bulbs. • Demand parameters by efficiency rating are estimated from four AIDS models. • Future (not present) electricity prices induce investments in energy efficiency. • Behavioural efficiency adjustments explain differences in market response

  5. Prediction Models for Dynamic Demand Response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aman, Saima; Frincu, Marc; Chelmis, Charalampos; Noor, Muhammad; Simmhan, Yogesh; Prasanna, Viktor K.

    2015-11-02

    As Smart Grids move closer to dynamic curtailment programs, Demand Response (DR) events will become necessary not only on fixed time intervals and weekdays predetermined by static policies, but also during changing decision periods and weekends to react to real-time demand signals. Unique challenges arise in this context vis-a-vis demand prediction and curtailment estimation and the transformation of such tasks into an automated, efficient dynamic demand response (D2R) process. While existing work has concentrated on increasing the accuracy of prediction models for DR, there is a lack of studies for prediction models for D2R, which we address in this paper. Our first contribution is the formal definition of D2R, and the description of its challenges and requirements. Our second contribution is a feasibility analysis of very-short-term prediction of electricity consumption for D2R over a diverse, large-scale dataset that includes both small residential customers and large buildings. Our third, and major contribution is a set of insights into the predictability of electricity consumption in the context of D2R. Specifically, we focus on prediction models that can operate at a very small data granularity (here 15-min intervals), for both weekdays and weekends - all conditions that characterize scenarios for D2R. We find that short-term time series and simple averaging models used by Independent Service Operators and utilities achieve superior prediction accuracy. We also observe that workdays are more predictable than weekends and holiday. Also, smaller customers have large variation in consumption and are less predictable than larger buildings. Key implications of our findings are that better models are required for small customers and for non-workdays, both of which are critical for D2R. Also, prediction models require just few days’ worth of data indicating that small amounts of

  6. A Framework for Understanding and Generating Integrated Solutions for Residential Peak Energy Demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buys, Laurie; Vine, Desley; Ledwich, Gerard; Bell, John; Mengersen, Kerrie; Morris, Peter; Lewis, Jim

    2015-01-01

    Supplying peak energy demand in a cost effective, reliable manner is a critical focus for utilities internationally. Successfully addressing peak energy concerns requires understanding of all the factors that affect electricity demand especially at peak times. This paper is based on past attempts of proposing models designed to aid our understanding of the influences on residential peak energy demand in a systematic and comprehensive way. Our model has been developed through a group model building process as a systems framework of the problem situation to model the complexity within and between systems and indicate how changes in one element might flow on to others. It is comprised of themes (social, technical and change management options) networked together in a way that captures their influence and association with each other and also their influence, association and impact on appliance usage and residential peak energy demand. The real value of the model is in creating awareness, understanding and insight into the complexity of residential peak energy demand and in working with this complexity to identify and integrate the social, technical and change management option themes and their impact on appliance usage and residential energy demand at peak times. PMID:25807384

  7. Demand-side management and demand response in the Ontario energy sectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    A directive from the former Minister of Energy was received by the Ontario Energy Board (OEB), directing the Board to consult with stakeholders on options for the delivery of demand-side management (DSM) and demand response (DR) activities within the electricity sector, including the role of local distribution companies in such activities. The implementation costs were to be balanced with the benefits to both consumers and the entire system. The scope of the review was expanded by the Board to include the role of gas distribution companies in DSM. A consultation process was implemented and stakeholders were invited to participate. A series of recommendations was made, including: (1) a hybrid framework utilizing market-based and public-policy approaches should deliver DSM and DR activities in Ontario's energy markets, (2) DSM and DR activities should come under the responsibility of a central agency, (3) DSM and DR activities should be coordinated through cooperation between the Ministry of Energy, the Independent Electricity Market Operator (IMO) and the Ontario Energy Board, (4) regulatory mechanisms to induce gas distributors, electricity transmitters and electricity distributors to reduce distribution system losses should be put in place, (5) all electricity consumers should fund electricity DSM and some retail DR initiatives through a transparent, non-bypassable consumption charge, and (6) the Board should design, develop and deliver information to consumers regarding energy conservation, energy efficiency, load management, and cleaner sources of energy. refs., 4 figs

  8. Demand for energy in rural and urban centres of Ethiopia; An econometric analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kidane, Asmerom (Addis Ababa Univ. (ET). Dept. of Statistics)

    1991-04-01

    The paper starts by briefly discussing the current energy situation in Ethiopia. The major source of energy in Ethiopia is traditional and the major consumer is the household. A simple model of household utility function where energy consumption is the major variable is developed and a reduced form is derived. To make the model operational a simultaneous equation system describing the demand for and supply of traditional and modern energy sources has been specified. The model is closed by equating the demand for energy with the supply. Data from the national energy survey were used to estimate the model. The major finding of the study is that price of traditional energy plays an important role in the consumption of fuelwood and other traditional energy sources. By manipulating the price variable the government may be able to control the high rate of depletion of forest resources. (author).

  9. Structural change of the economy, technological progress and long-term energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klinge Jacobsen, H.

    2000-01-01

    The material included in the report is a collection of papers dealing with different issues related to the topics included in the title. Some of these papers have already either been published or presented at various conferences. Together with a general introduction, they constitute the author's PhD dissertation. The dissertation includes six papers and two shorter notes on different aspects of structural change of the economy and energy demand. Three different issues related to long-term energy demand are discussed: (1) the importance of technological change and its representation in energy-economy modelling, (2) an integration of two different modelling approaches, and (3) the effect on energy demand of structural changes exemplified by changes in the energy supply sector and in Danish trade patterns. The report highlights a few aspects of the interaction between structural economic changes and energy demand, but it does not intend to cover a wide range of issues related to these topics. In the introductory chapter some discussions and thoughts about issues not covered by the articles are brought forward. The introductory chapter includes an overview of possible relations between longterm energy demand and the economy, technical progress demography, social conditions and politics. The first two papers discuss the importance for projections of long-term energy demand of the way in which technological progress is modelled. These papers focus on energy-economy modelling. A paper dealing with two different approaches to energy demand modelling and the possible integration of these approaches in the Danish case follows next. The integrated Danish model, is then used for analysing different revenue recycling principles in relation to a CO 2 tax. The effect of subsidising biomass use is compared with recycling through corporate tax rates. Then a paper follows describing the structural change of a specific sector, namely the energy supply sector, and the implications for

  10. Potentials for energy savings and long term energy demands for Croatian households sector

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pukšec, Tomislav; Mathiesen, Brian Vad; Duic, Neven

    2011-01-01

    demand in the future, based on careful and rational energy planning. Different financial, legal and technological mechanisms can lead to significant savings in the households sector which also leads to lesser greenhouse gas emissions and lower Croatian dependence on foreign fossil fuels....... relevant. In order to plan future energy systems it is important to know future possibilities and needs regarding energy demand for different sectors. Through this paper long term energy demand projections for Croatian households sector will be shown with a special emphasis on different mechanisms, both...... financial, legal but also technological that will influence future energy demand scenarios. It is important to see how these mechanisms influence, positive or negative, on future energy demand and which mechanism would be most influential. Energy demand predictions in this paper are based upon bottom...

  11. Potentials for energy savings and long term energy demands for Croatian households sector

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pukšec, Tomislav; Mathiesen, Brian Vad; Duic, Neven

    2013-01-01

    demand in the future, based on careful and rational energy planning. Different financial, legal and technological mechanisms can lead to significant savings in the households sector which also leads to lesser greenhouse gas emissions and lower Croatian dependence on foreign fossil fuels....... relevant. In order to plan future energy systems it is important to know future possibilities and needs regarding energy demand for different sectors. Through this paper long term energy demand projections for Croatian households sector will be shown with a special emphasis on different mechanisms, both...... financial, legal but also technological that will influence future energy demand scenarios. It is important to see how these mechanisms influence, positive or negative, on future energy demand and which mechanism would be most influential. Energy demand predictions in this paper are based upon bottom...

  12. Energy demand forecasting method based on international statistical data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glanc, Z.; Kerner, A.

    1997-01-01

    Poland is in a transition phase from a centrally planned to a market economy; data collected under former economic conditions do not reflect a market economy. Final energy demand forecasts are based on the assumption that the economic transformation in Poland will gradually lead the Polish economy, technologies and modes of energy use, to the same conditions as mature market economy countries. The starting point has a significant influence on the future energy demand and supply structure: final energy consumption per capita in 1992 was almost half the average of OECD countries; energy intensity, based on Purchasing Power Parities (PPP) and referred to GDP, is more than 3 times higher in Poland. A method of final energy demand forecasting based on regression analysis is described in this paper. The input data are: output of macroeconomic and population growth forecast; time series 1970-1992 of OECD countries concerning both macroeconomic characteristics and energy consumption; and energy balance of Poland for the base year of the forecast horizon. (author). 1 ref., 19 figs, 4 tabs

  13. Energy demand forecasting method based on international statistical data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Glanc, Z; Kerner, A [Energy Information Centre, Warsaw (Poland)

    1997-09-01

    Poland is in a transition phase from a centrally planned to a market economy; data collected under former economic conditions do not reflect a market economy. Final energy demand forecasts are based on the assumption that the economic transformation in Poland will gradually lead the Polish economy, technologies and modes of energy use, to the same conditions as mature market economy countries. The starting point has a significant influence on the future energy demand and supply structure: final energy consumption per capita in 1992 was almost half the average of OECD countries; energy intensity, based on Purchasing Power Parities (PPP) and referred to GDP, is more than 3 times higher in Poland. A method of final energy demand forecasting based on regression analysis is described in this paper. The input data are: output of macroeconomic and population growth forecast; time series 1970-1992 of OECD countries concerning both macroeconomic characteristics and energy consumption; and energy balance of Poland for the base year of the forecast horizon. (author). 1 ref., 19 figs, 4 tabs.

  14. Meeting India's growing energy demand with nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matzie, R.

    2009-01-01

    Full text: With world energy demand expected to nearly double by 2030, the need for safe, reliable and clean energy is imperative. In India, energy demand has outpaced the increase in energy production, with the country experiencing as much as a 12 percent gap between peak demand and availability. To meet demand, nuclear power is the ideal solution for providing baseload electricity, and as much as 40-60 GWe of nuclear capacity will need to be added throughout the county over the next 20 years. This presentation will describe the benefits of nuclear power compared to other energy sources, provide an overview of new nuclear power plant construction projects worldwide, and explain the benefits and advantages of the Westinghouse AP1000 nuclear power plant. The presentation will also outline the steps that Westinghouse is taking to help facilitate new nuclear construction in India, and how the company's 'Buy Where We Build' approach to supply chain management will positively impact the Indian economy through continued in-country supplier agreements, job creation, and the exporting of materials and components to support AP1000 projects outside of India. Finally, the presentation will show that the experience Westinghouse is gaining in constructing AP1000 plants in both China and the United States will help ensure the success of projects in India

  15. Estimating the net electricity energy generation and demand using the ant colony optimization approach. Case of Turkey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toksari, M. Duran

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents Turkey's net electricity energy generation and demand based on economic indicators. Forecasting model for electricity energy generation and demand is first proposed by the ant colony optimization (ACO) approach. It is multi-agent system in which the behavior of each ant is inspired by the foraging behavior of real ants to solve optimization problem. Ant colony optimization electricity energy estimation (ACOEEE) model is developed using population, gross domestic product (GDP), import and export. All equations proposed here are linear electricity energy generation and demand (linear A COEEGE and linear ACOEEDE) and quadratic energy generation and demand (quadratic A COEEGE and quadratic ACOEEDE). Quadratic models for both generation and demand provided better fit solution due to the fluctuations of the economic indicators. The ACOEEGE and ACOEEDE models indicate Turkey's net electricity energy generation and demand until 2025 according to three scenarios. (author)

  16. Transportation Energy Futures Series: Freight Transportation Demand: Energy-Efficient Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grenzeback, L. R. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Brown, A. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Fischer, M. J. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Hutson, N. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Lamm, C. R. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Pei, Y. L. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Vimmerstedt, L. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Vyas, A. D. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Winebrake, J. J. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States)

    2013-03-01

    Freight transportation demand is projected to grow to 27.5 billion tons in 2040, and by extrapolation, to nearly 30.2 billion tons in 2050, requiring ever-greater amounts of energy. This report describes the current and future demand for freight transportation in terms of tons and ton-miles of commodities moved by truck, rail, water, pipeline, and air freight carriers. It outlines the economic, logistics, transportation, and policy and regulatory factors that shape freight demand; the possible trends and 2050 outlook for these factors, and their anticipated effect on freight demand and related energy use. After describing federal policy actions that could influence freight demand, the report then summarizes the available analytical models for forecasting freight demand, and identifies possible areas for future action.

  17. Transportation Energy Futures Series: Freight Transportation Demand: Energy-Efficient Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grenzeback, L. R.; Brown, A.; Fischer, M. J.; Hutson, N.; Lamm, C. R.; Pei, Y. L.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Vyas, A. D.; Winebrake, J. J.

    2013-03-01

    Freight transportation demand is projected to grow to 27.5 billion tons in 2040, and to nearly 30.2 billion tons in 2050. This report describes the current and future demand for freight transportation in terms of tons and ton-miles of commodities moved by truck, rail, water, pipeline, and air freight carriers. It outlines the economic, logistics, transportation, and policy and regulatory factors that shape freight demand, the trends and 2050 outlook for these factors, and their anticipated effect on freight demand. After describing federal policy actions that could influence future freight demand, the report then summarizes the capabilities of available analytical models for forecasting freight demand. This is one in a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency effort to pinpoint underexplored strategies for reducing GHGs and petroleum dependence related to transportation.

  18. Demand-side management and demand response in the Ontario energy sectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    In June 2003, the Ontario Energy Board was asked by the Minister of Energy to identify and review options for the delivery of demand-side management (DSM) and demand response (DR) activities within the electricity sector, by consulting with stakeholders. The role of local distribution company (distributor) in such activities was also to be determined. The objective was to balance implementation costs with the benefits to consumers and the entire system. The preliminary research and ideas were presented in this discussion paper. Definitions of both DSM and DR were provided, followed by an overview of economic theory and competitive markets. The framework for discussion was presented, along with a list of issues and other considerations. A spectrum of potential approaches to a DSM and DR framework was included and jurisdictional examples provided. A brief overview of the concept of load aggregation was presented and the next steps for consultations were outlined. 30 refs., 7 tabs

  19. Creating hourly distributions at national level for various energy demands and renewable energy supplies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Connolly, David; Drysdale, Dave; Hansen, Kenneth

    2015-01-01

    being recorded over longer time horizons, for example over one day. In this paper, a methodology is presented for creating hourly distributions for energy systems analysis tools. On the demand side, hourly distributions are developed for electricity, heating, cooling, and transport while the supply side...... includes wind, solar (photovoltaic and thermal), and wave power. Distributions are not created for dispatchable plants, such as coal, gas, and nuclear thermal plants, since their output is usually determined by the energy modelling tool rather than by a dependent resource. The methodologies are purposely...

  20. Overview of energy demand and opportunities for conservation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Graham, P. J.

    1977-10-15

    The widespread practice of conservation could make a substantial reduction in the rate of growth of demand and hence in the rate at which resources need to be developed and consumed. An attempt is not made to show that conservation is an alternative to increasing energy supply. After reviewing the consumption of energy before the 1973 energy crisis, the main features of conservation which have brought it to the forefront of energy policy are examined. Some information on present consumption patterns in New Zealand is presented.

  1. A cost-emission model for fuel cell/PV/battery hybrid energy system in the presence of demand response program: ε-constraint method and fuzzy satisfying approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nojavan, Sayyad; Majidi, Majid; Najafi-Ghalelou, Afshin; Ghahramani, Mehrdad; Zare, Kazem

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Cost-emission performance of PV/battery/fuel cell hybrid energy system is studied. • Multi-objective optimization model for cost-emission performance is proposed. • ε-constraint method is proposed to produce Pareto solutions of multi-objective model. • Fuzzy satisfying approach selected the best optimal solution from Pareto solutions. • Demand response program is proposed to reduce both cost and emission. - Abstract: Optimal operation of hybrid energy systems is a big challenge in power systems. Nowadays, in addition to the optimum performance of energy systems, their pollution issue has been a hot topic between researchers. In this paper, a multi-objective model is proposed for economic and environmental operation of a battery/fuel cell/photovoltaic (PV) hybrid energy system in the presence of demand response program (DRP). In the proposed paper, the first objective function is minimization of total cost of hybrid energy system. The second objective function is minimization of total CO_2 emission which is in conflict with the first objective function. So, a multi-objective optimization model is presented to model the hybrid system’s optimal and environmental performance problem with considering DRP. The proposed multi-objective model is solved by ε-constraint method and then fuzzy satisfying technique is employed to select the best possible solution. Also, positive effects of DRP on the economic and environmental performance of hybrid system are analyzed. A mixed-integer linear program is used to simulate the proposed model and the obtained results are compared with weighted sum approach to show the effectiveness of proposed method.

  2. The role of nuclear power in meeting future energy demands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuchs, K.

    1977-01-01

    Future energy demands and possibilities of meeting them are outlined. The current status and future developments of nuclear energetics all over the world and in the CMEA member states are discussed considering reactor safety, fission product releases, and thermal pollution of the environment

  3. Uruguaian rural area: energy demand and sources supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reolon, R.

    1994-01-01

    The present work is about the energy demand in rural areas and its electrification like one of the factors of its residents maintenance, in the means that they are essential for the development but intensive of agrarian intensity, nevertheless we will try to determine their quantity and the character one of them

  4. Demand modelling for central heating systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heller, A.

    2000-07-01

    Most researchers in the field of heat demand estimation have focussed on explaning the load for a given plant based on rather few measurements. This approach is simply the only one adaptable with the very limited data material and limited computer power. This way of dealing with the subject is here called the top-down approach, due to the fact that one tries to explain the load from the overall data. The results of such efforts are discussed in the report, leading to inspiration for own work. Also the significance of the findings to the causes for given heat loads are discussed and summarised. Contrary to the top-down approach applied in literature, a here-called bottom-up approach is applied in this work, describing the causes of a given partial load in detail and combining them to explain the total load for the system. Three partial load 'components' are discussed: 1) Space heating. 2) Hot-Water Consumption. 3) Heat losses in pipe networks. The report is aimed at giving an introduction to these subjects, but at the same time at collecting the previous work done by the author. Space heating is shortly discussed and loads are generated by an advanced simulation model. A hot water consumption model is presented and heat loads, generated by this model, utilised in the overall work. Heat loads due to heat losses in district heating a given a high priority in the current work. Hence a detailed presentation and overview of the subject is given to solar heating experts normally not dealing with district heating. Based on the 'partial' loads generated by the above-mentioned method, an overall load model is built in the computer simulation environment TRNSYS. The final tool is then employed for the generation of time series for heat demand, representing a district heating area. The results are compared to alternative methods for the generation of heat demand profiles. Results form this comparison will be presented. Computerised modelling of systems

  5. Power without manpower: Forecasting labour demand for Estonian energy sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meriküll, Jaanika; Eamets, Raul; Humal, Katrin; Espenberg, Kerly

    2012-01-01

    As energy demand and prices continue to grow, oil shale might help mitigate the energy crisis—it can widely be found all over the world but so far has not been widely used. Estonia is unique in the world for producing a large majority of energy out of oil shale and has been set as an example in numerous papers covering oil shale deposits, technology etc. This paper is the first to analyse oil shale energy related workforce and provides scenario forecasts of the labour demand for the Estonian energy sector in 2010–2020. The contribution of the paper is twofold. First, the paper provides a valuable insight into oil shale energy related workforce, enabling to take into consideration the educational needs in countries where oil shale industry might be set up. Second, methodology-wise, the paper relates labour demand and supply to different scenarios of energy production capacities. The results illustrate problems related to aging of the workforce in energy production. If the existing trends continue in educational attainment in Estonia, there will be a serious shortage of high-skilled engineering and manufacturing specialists. Our method provides a simple yet reliable enough way to check for such problems early enough. - Highlights: ► This paper analyses oil shale energy related workforce and provides scenario forecasts. ► This is the first study to investigate the workforce related to oil shale energy production. ► The main workforce-related problem in the sector is ageing of the workforce. ► Workers immigrating to the sector during the Soviet times are at the retirement age. ► There will be a serious shortage of engineers for energy sector in the near future.

  6. Energy demand in Mexico, a vision to the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Esquivel E, J.; Xolocostli M, J. V.

    2017-09-01

    The energy planning allows to know the current and future energy needs of the country, with the objective of efficiently guaranteeing the supply of energy demand through the diversity of the sources used, promoting the use of clean energies such as nuclear energy. Mexico, by participating in the ARCAL project -Support for the preparation of national energy plans in order to meet energy needs in the countries of the region, making effective use of resources in the medium and long term- has developed the study of energy demand for the period 2015-2050, where, given the socio-economic and technological conditions of the country in 2012, four scenarios are proposed: Decrement al, with decreases in the GDP growth rate and in the production of the manufacturing sector; Incremental, which shows an increase in the GDP growth rate and in the manufacturing sector; Incremental Dual, scenario similar to the Incremental plus an incentive in the service sector and finally, the Tendencial scenario, which corresponds to a typical scenario-business as usual-. The study that concerns this work was developed with the MAED tool and the results that are presented correspond to the energy requirements in each scenario, for the agriculture, construction, mining, manufacturing and transport sectors. (Author)

  7. Impact of kiln thermal energy demand and false air on cement kiln flue gas CO2 capture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arachchige, Udara S.P.R.; Kawan, Dinesh; Tokheim, Lars-Andre [Telemark University College, Porsgrunn (Norway); Melaaen, Morten C. [Telemark University College, Porsgrunn (Norway); (Tel-Tek, Porsgrunn (Norway)

    2013-07-01

    The present study is focused on the effect of the specific thermal energy demand and the false air factor on carbon capture applied to cement kiln exhaust gases. The carbon capture process model was developed and implemented in Aspen Plus. The model was developed for flue gases from a typical cement clinker manufacturing plant. The specific thermal energy demand as well as the false air factor of the kiln system were varied in order to determine the effect on CO2 capture plant performance, such as the solvent regeneration energy demand. In general, an increase in the mentioned kiln system factors increases the regeneration energy demand. The reboiler energy demand is calculated as 3270, 3428 and 3589 kJ/kg clinker for a specific thermal energy of 3000, 3400 and 3800 kJ/kg clinker, respectively. Setting the false air factor to 25, 50 or 70% gives a reboiler energy demand of 3428, 3476, 3568 kJ/kg clinker, respectively.

  8. Analysis of Energy Demand for Low-Energy Multi-Dwelling Buildings of Different Configuration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giedrė Streckienė

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available To meet the goals established by Directive 2010/31/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council on the energy performance of buildings, the topics of energy efficiency in new and old buildings must be solved. Research and development of new energy solutions and technology are necessary for increasing energy performance of buildings. Three low-energy multi-dwelling buildings have been modelled and analyzed in the presented study. All multi-dwelling houses are made of similar single-family house cells. However, multi-dwelling buildings are of different geometry, flat number and height. DesignBuilder software was used for simulating and determining heating, cooling and electricity demand for buildings. Three different materials (silicate, ceramic and clay concrete blocks as bearing constructions of external walls have been analyzed. To decrease cooling demand for buildings, the possibility of mounting internal or external louvers has been considered. Primary energy savings for multi-dwelling buildings using passive solar measures have been determined.

  9. Improved model for the calculation of the energy demand for the energetic evaluation of non-residential buildings; Verbessertes Modell zur Berechnung des Energiebedarfs zur energetischen Bewertung von Nichtwohngebaeuden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kempf, Heike

    2011-06-29

    The German Industrial Norm DIN V 18599, which is related to the German Energieeinsparverordnung (EnEV), addresses the energetic evaluation of nonresidential buildings. With its more than 800 pages it is very voluminous and complex. Due to the complex subject of DIN V 18599, discrepancies causing considerable differences in the overall result are possible. A further weak point in the current procedure for energetic evaluation is the composition of individual zones within the considered buildings and the subsequent effort for acquisition and determination of values needed during computation. Before a non-residential building can be evaluated energetically, the building has to be divided into individual areas with identical boundary conditions (zoning). The process of zoning is an elementary step within the balancing according to DIN V 18599. It provides, beside the determination of geometrical data, the basis for further computations. Thus, the energetic evaluation of non-residential buildings is based on the so-called Multiple-Zone-Model as described in DIN V 18599. Zoning, especially the gathering of data connected to it, is a very time-consuming task, because the building areas and volumes have to be determined for each zone individually. Nevertheless, zoning is mandatory because of the often completely different net energies to be provided. In order to reduce this effort, a Single-Zone-Model was added to the Energieeinsparverordnung, which may be used under certain preconditions. However, in comparison to the Multi-Zone-Model, differences in the evaluation results are possible. The elimination of weak points, that is to say the difference in time and result, is reached by the computation of the annual primary energy demand on the basis of an Improved-Single-Zone-Model. The Improved-Single-Zone-Model works with improved use values and includes computations of the Single-Zone-Model as well as the Multiple-Zone-Model. The advantage of the Improved-Single-Zone-Model

  10. The relationship between house size and life cycle energy demand: Implications for energy efficiency regulations for buildings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stephan, André; Crawford, Robert H.

    2016-01-01

    House size has significantly increased over the recent decades in many countries. Larger houses often have a higher life cycle energy demand due to their increased use of materials and larger area to heat, cool and light. Yet, most energy efficiency regulations for buildings fail to adequately include requirements for addressing the energy demand associated with house size. This study quantifies the effect of house size on life cycle energy demand in order to inform future regulations. It uses a parametric model of a typical detached house in Melbourne, Australia and varies its floor area from 100 to 392 m"2 for four different household sizes. Both initial and recurrent embodied energy requirements are quantified using input-output-based hybrid analysis and operational energy is calculated in primary energy terms over 50 years. Results show that the life cycle energy demand increases at a slower rate compared to house size. Expressing energy efficiency per m"2 therefore favours large houses while these require more energy. Also, embodied energy represents 26–50% across all variations. Building energy efficiency regulations should incorporate embodied energy, correct energy intensity thresholds for house size and use multiple functional units to measure efficiency. These measures may help achieve greater net energy reductions. - Highlights: • The life cycle energy demand (LCE) is calculated for 90 house sizes and 4 household sizes. • The LCE is sublinearly correlated with house size. • Larger houses appear to be more energy efficient per m"2 while they use more energy overall. • Embodied energy (EE) represents up to 52% of the LCE over 50 years. • Building energy efficiency regulations need to consider house size and EE.

  11. Modeling of petroleum products demand in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chauvel, A.; Jamin, F.; Cholet, G.

    1995-01-01

    This project was carried out under the responsibility of the Strategy-Economics-Program Division of the ''Institut Francais du Petrole''. The goal was the short-term (12 months) forecasting of the demand with regard to the four leading petroleum products in France - gas oil (GO), automotive (CA), home heating oil (FOD) and heavy fuel oil (FL). It was decided to test an original method (1) and to compare it with the widely used Box and Jenkins method (2), which gives good results for the GO and CA series but which proves disappointing for the FOD and FL series. This study is in two parts: (1) the first part describes the original method by breaking it down into trends and seasonality, with the model being additive or multiplicative. We improved its performances by using the theory of the Weiner filter; (2) the second part concerns Box an Jenkins modeling. This model was used on the unprocessed series and then on the series corrected for the influence of working days with the help of the ''Census-X11'' deseasonalization program. For each method, the principal phases are described for the modeling of gas oil on the French domestic market. For the other products, only the principal results are given, i.e. structure of the model retained, matching with reality, reliability of forecasts. (authors). 5 refs., 5 figs., 9 tabs

  12. Planning nuclear energy centers under technological and demand uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meier, P.M.; Palmedo, P.F.

    1976-01-01

    The question considered is whether new nuclear power plants should be located in nuclear energy centers, or ''power parks'' with co-located fabrication and reprocessing facilities. That issue has been addressed in a recent study by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and remains under investigation at Brookhaven and elsewhere. So far, however, the advisability of this policy has been analyzed primarily within the framework of a single view of the future. Suggestions of the types of questions that should be asked regarding this policy if it is properly to be viewed as an example of decision making under uncertainty are made. It is concluded that ''A consideration of the various uncertainties involved in the question of dispersed vs. remote siting of energy facilities introduces a number of new elements into the analysis. On balance those considerations provide somewhat greater support for the clustered concept. The NEC approach seems to provide somewhat greater flexibility in accomodating possible future electricity generating technologies. Increased regulatory and construction efficiencies possible in an NEC reduces the impact of demand uncertainty as does the lower costs associated with construction acceleration or deceleration.'' It is also noted that, in the final analysis, ''it is the public's perception of the relative costs and benefits of a measure that determine the acceptability or unacceptability of a particular innovation,'' not the engineer's cost/benefit analysis. It is further noted that if the analysis can identify limits on analytical methods and models, it will not make the job of energy decision-making any easier, but it may make the process more responsive to its impact on society

  13. Joint energy demand and thermal comfort optimization in photovoltaic-equipped interconnected microgrids

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baldi, Simone; Karagevrekis, Athanasios; Michailidis, Iakovos T.; Kosmatopoulos, Elias B.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Energy efficient operation of photovoltaic-equipped interconnected microgrids. • Optimized energy demand for a block of heterogeneous buildings with different sizes. • Multiobjective optimization: matching demand and supply taking into account thermal comfort. • Intelligent control mechanism for heating, ventilating, and air conditioning units. • Optimization of energy consumption and thermal comfort at the aggregate microgrid level. - Abstract: Electrical smart microgrids equipped with small-scale renewable-energy generation systems are emerging progressively as an alternative or an enhancement to the central electrical grid: due to the intermittent nature of the renewable energy sources, appropriate algorithms are required to integrate these two typologies of grids and, in particular, to perform efficiently dynamic energy demand and distributed generation management, while guaranteeing satisfactory thermal comfort for the occupants. This paper presents a novel control algorithm for joint energy demand and thermal comfort optimization in photovoltaic-equipped interconnected microgrids. Energy demand shaping is achieved via an intelligent control mechanism for heating, ventilating, and air conditioning units. The intelligent control mechanism takes into account the available solar energy, the building dynamics and the thermal comfort of the buildings’ occupants. The control design is accomplished in a simulation-based fashion using an energy simulation model, developed in EnergyPlus, of an interconnected microgrid. Rather than focusing only on how each building behaves individually, the optimization algorithm employs a central controller that allows interaction among the buildings of the microgrid. The control objective is to optimize the aggregate microgrid performance. Simulation results demonstrate that the optimization algorithm efficiently integrates the microgrid with the photovoltaic system that provides free electric energy: in

  14. Promotion COPERNIC Energy and Society the interrogations on the world demand evolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-12-01

    In the framework of a prospective reflexion emergence on the energy demand, this document presents an analysis of the prospective approach and of recent studies: challenges, interests, limits, validity of the models and hypothesis and results relevance. With this analysis, the authors aim to identify the main interrogations bond to the world energy demand evolution. They then analyse these interrogations in the framework of a sectoral approach (agriculture, industry, transports, residential) in order to detail the demand and to forecast the evolution. Facing the consumption attitudes, they also suggest some new action avenues to favor a sustainable growth. (A.L.B.)

  15. Outlook of Japan's economy and energy demand for FY2017

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aoshima, Momoko; Yorita, Y.; Tsunoda, M.

    2017-01-01

    This paper disclosed the prospects of Japan's economy and energy demand as the standard scenario, with the following major preconditions in mind: (1) world economy grows moderately, (2) supply and demand of crude oil are gently balanced, (3) exchange rate is Yen110/$, (4) nuclear power generation gradually moves back to operation, and the number of cumulative reopening units until the end of FY2017 reaches 14, and (5) supply and demand of electric power can secure 3% supply reserve ratio necessary for stable supply of electricity nationwide. In addition, this paper carried out evaluation analyses on the following various influences: macro economy, production activity, primary energy domestic supply, final energy consumption, electricity sales volume and power source composition (electric power companies), city gas sales volume (gas companies), fuel oil and LPG sales volume and crude oil throughput, renewable energy power generation, impact of nuclear power plant restart base, income/expenditure for on renewable energy generation, and impact of realization of large scale coal thermal power plant plan. (A.O.)

  16. A Study on strengthening demand management of energy price

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seo, Jung Hwan [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

    1999-02-01

    Until 1980s, energy sector had been operated as a monopoly of public enterprises in most countries. Price regulation of government had an influence on energy supply and demand by not fully giving information on market situation (supply and demand). Recently, as energy related technology and information technology have developed, the developed countries including UK and some developing countries could raise efficiency of industry through competitive market by recognizing the limit of government regulation and opening up many sectors of energy industry to the private sector. Korea is also implementing a measure for introducing competition through the participation of private sector into electricity and natural gas industries step by step. If the private sector is participated and competition is introduced, energy price cannot be a policy instrument setting up by the government, so demand management through price regulation is meaningless. Under such circumstances, a policy function should be converted to the direction of promoting competition and increasing market efficiency. In this study, it examines how the government regulation and industry has been changed through the transition of natural gas and electricity industries in UK, USA, and France and then it tries to derive suggestions to Korea. (author). 49 refs., 58 figs., 32 tabs.

  17. The role of hydropower in meeting Turkey's electric energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuksek, Omer; Komurcu, Murat Ihsan; Yuksel, Ibrahim; Kaygusuz, Kamil

    2006-01-01

    The inherent technical, economic and environmental benefits of hydroelectric power, make it an important contributor to the future world energy mix, particularly in the developing countries. These countries, such as Turkey, have a great and ever-intensifying need for power and water supplies and they also have the greatest remaining hydro potential. From the viewpoint of energy sources such as petroleum and natural gas, Turkey is not a rich country; but it has an abundant hydropower potential to be used for generation of electricity and must increase hydropower production in the near future. This paper deals with policies to meet the increasing electricity demand for Turkey. Hydropower and especially small hydropower are emphasized as Turkey's renewable energy sources. The results of two case studies, whose results were not taken into consideration in calculating Turkey's hydro electric potential, are presented. Turkey's small hydro power potential is found to be an important energy source, especially in the Eastern Black Sea Region. The results of a study in which Turkey's long-term demand has been predicted are also presented. According to the results of this paper, Turkey's hydro electric potential can meet 33-46% of its electric energy demand in 2020 and this potential may easily and economically be developed

  18. Biomass energy consumption in Nigeria: integrating demand and supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Momoh, S.; Soaga, J.

    1999-01-01

    The study examined the present and future consumption of biomass energy in Nigeria. Direct consumption of fire wood for domestic purposes is the predominant form of biomass energy consumption. Charcoal plays minot roles in biomass energy supply. The current and expected demand for fuelwood is projected to increase by 399% whereas supply is expected to decrease by 17.2% between 1995 and year 2010. Resource adequacy in terms of planned supply is on the decline. Forest estates which is the only planned strategy for fuelwood and wood production is projected to decline from 6.37 million ha. in 1990 to 2.4 million ha, in year 2010. The possibilities of meeting the fuelwood demand in the future is precarious. Policy measures aimed at increasing forest estates. reduction of loss of forest lands to other uses and encouragement of private forestry are recommended

  19. The impacts of weather variations on energy demand and carbon emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Considine, T.J.

    2000-01-01

    This paper examines the impacts of climate fluctuations on carbon emissions using monthly models of US energy demand. The econometric analysis estimates price, income, and weather elasticities of short-run energy demand. Our model simulations suggest that warmer climate conditions in the US since 1982 slightly reduced carbon emissions in the US. Lower energy use associated with reduced heating requirements offsets higher fuel consumption to meet increased air-conditioning needs. The analysis also suggests that climate change policies should allow some variance in carbon emissions due to short-term weather variations

  20. Long term energy demand projection and potential for energy savings of Croatian tourism–catering trade sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Irsag, Bojan; Pukšec, Tomislav; Duić, Neven

    2012-01-01

    Today, tourism represents one of the backbones of Croatian economy and one of the main factors of its growth. Combined with catering trade sector, tourism represents a significant energy consumer that has the tendencies of future growth. Since services sector, which tourism–catering trade sector is a part of, is not yet well described regarding future energy balances it would be very interesting to see how could possible future growth in tourism influence energy consumption of the services sector in Croatia. Through this paper long term energy demand projections of tourism–catering trade sector were studied with special emphasis on future growth of tourism in Croatia as well as different mechanisms that might lead to certain energy savings. Bottom-up approach was chosen as the most suitable one since it allows better quantification of different measures, technological or legal, that would influence future energy demand. Downside of this approach is extensive input data that is required to analyse and model future energy demand which is roughly divided into heating/cooling section and all other consumption. Results show that additional energy savings in the tourism–catering trade sector are possible if careful and rational demand side planning is in place. -- Highlights: ► Future energy demand of Croatian touristm–catering trade sector has been modelled. ► Model is roughly divided into two basic modes (heating/cooling and all other consumption). ► Different factors influencing future energy demand were implemented into the model. ► Possibilities for energy efficiency improvements have been presented.

  1. Opportunities for peak shaving the energy demand of ship-to-shore quay cranes at container terminals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    H. Geerlings; Robert Heij; dr. J.H.R. van Duin

    2018-01-01

    This paper presents the results of both a qualitative and a quantitative study on the possibilities for peak shaving the energy demand of ship-to-shore (STS) cranes at container terminals. The objective is to present an energy consumption model that visualizes the energy demand of STS cranes and to

  2. Opportunities for peak shaving the energy demand of ship-to-shore quay cranes at container terminals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Geerlings, Harry; van Duin, Ron

    2018-01-01

    This paper presents the results of both a qualitative and a quantitative study on
    the possibilities for peak shaving the energy demand of ship-to-shore (STS) cranes at container terminals. The objective is to present an energy consumption model that visualizes the energy demand of STS cranes and

  3. Canadian energy supply and demand 1993 - 2010: Trends and issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-07-01

    The National Energy Board has since 1959 prepared and maintained projections of energy supply requirements and has from time to time published reports on them. The objectives of this report are to provide a comprehensive 'all energy' market analysis and outlook to service as a standard of reference for all parties interested in Canadian energy issues; to provide a framework for public discussion on emerging energy issues of national importance and to monitor the prospects for the supply, demand and price of natural gas in Canada pursuant to the Market-Based Procedure for regulating. The focus being on the broad outlines of prospective energy market developments under different underlying assumptions about key variables. 7 tabs., 60 figs

  4. Canadian energy supply and demand 1993 - 2010: Trends and issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1994-07-01

    The National Energy Board has since 1959 prepared and maintained projections of energy supply requirements and has from time to time published reports on them. The objectives of this report are to provide a comprehensive `all energy` market analysis and outlook to service as a standard of reference for all parties interested in Canadian energy issues; to provide a framework for public discussion on emerging energy issues of national importance and to monitor the prospects for the supply, demand and price of natural gas in Canada pursuant to the Market-Based Procedure for regulating. The focus being on the broad outlines of prospective energy market developments under different underlying assumptions about key variables. 7 tabs., 60 figs.

  5. An empirical analysis of energy demand in Namibia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Vita, G.; Hunt, L.C.

    2006-01-01

    Using a unique database of end-user local energy data and the recently developed Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration, we estimate the long-run elasticities of the Namibian energy demand function at both aggregated level and by type of energy (electricity, petrol and diesel) for the period 1980-2002. Our main results show that energy consumption responds positively to changes in GDP and negatively to changes in energy price and air temperature. The differences in price elasticities across fuels uncovered by this study have significant implications for energy taxation by Namibian policy makers. We do not find any significant cross-price elasticities between different fuel types. (author)

  6. Regional energy demand and adaptations to climate change: Methodology and application to the state of Maryland, USA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruth, Matthias [Environmental Policy Program, School of Public Policy, 3139 Van Munching Hall, College Park, MD 20782 (United States)]. E-mail: mruth1@umd.edu; Lin, A.-C. [Environmental Policy Program, School of Public Policy, 3139 Van Munching Hall, College Park, MD 20782 (United States)

    2006-11-15

    This paper explores potential impacts of climate change on natural gas, electricity and heating oil use by the residential and commercial sectors in the state of Maryland, USA. Time series analysis is used to quantify historical temperature-energy demand relationships. A dynamic computer model uses those relationships to simulate future energy demand under a range of energy prices, temperatures and other drivers. The results indicate that climate exerts a comparably small signal on future energy demand, but that the combined climate and non-climate-induced changes in energy demand may pose significant challenges to policy and investment decisions in the state.

  7. Regional energy demand and adaptations to climate change: Methodology and application to the state of Maryland, USA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruth, Matthias; Lin, A.-C.

    2006-01-01

    This paper explores potential impacts of climate change on natural gas, electricity and heating oil use by the residential and commercial sectors in the state of Maryland, USA. Time series analysis is used to quantify historical temperature-energy demand relationships. A dynamic computer model uses those relationships to simulate future energy demand under a range of energy prices, temperatures and other drivers. The results indicate that climate exerts a comparably small signal on future energy demand, but that the combined climate and non-climate-induced changes in energy demand may pose significant challenges to policy and investment decisions in the state

  8. Geo-economy of world energy supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gauthier, Jean-Michel

    2009-01-01

    For over 50 years now, the global primary energy demand structure has been based on fossil fuels for more than 80%. In 25 years, our energy needs will still be covered by an over 80% fossil energy mix according to the reference scenario of most energy agencies. Over this period of time, the economics of energy will be radically altered as a result of a long term sustained global demand of energy and a growing constraint on some hydrocarbon production, conventional oil in particular. The oil production profile on currently operated oil fields, essentially in the OECD, will further decline or require significantly increasing investments. Non conventional oil sources are already proving to be even more capital-intensive. In the face of dwindling reserves in the old OECD hydrocarbon basins, the only resource-rich region in the world with low extraction costs and available swing supply capacities is the Middle East. Tomorrow's oil industry and markets will therefore represent a risk concentrated around a single region in the world, whilst the global gas industry will face a risk concentrated around two regions in the world, including Russia and the Middle East. Massive investments in energy infrastructures will be necessary to bring gas from these two sources to the remote markets in Asia, Europe or the US. The era of cheap energy is definitely gone. Far from being an obsolete fuel, coal is and will remain the most abundant, competitive and favoured source of energy for power generation across the world. CO_2 emissions from coal use are coal's only handicap. The vision of our energy future is in front of us: the environment will be filthy, energy will be costly and geopolitical tensions between producers and consumers will be strong

  9. The impact of residential, commercial, and transport energy demand uncertainties in Asia on climate change mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koljonen, Tiina; Lehtilä, Antti

    2012-01-01

    Energy consumption in residential, commercial and transport sectors have been growing rapidly in the non-OECD Asian countries over the last decades, and the trend is expected to continue over the coming decades as well. However, the per capita projections for energy demand in these particular sectors often seem to be very low compared to the OECD average until 2050, and it is clear that the scenario assessments of final energy demands in these sectors include large uncertainties. In this paper, a sensitivity analysis have been carried out to study the impact of higher rates of energy demand growths in the non-OECD Asia on global mitigation costs. The long term energy and emission scenarios for China, India and South-East Asia have been contributed as a part of Asian Modeling Exercise (AME). The scenarios presented have been modeled by using a global TIMES-VTT energy system model, which is based on the IEA-ETSAP TIMES energy system modeling framework and the global ETSAP-TIAM model. Our scenario results indicate that the impacts of accelerated energy demand in the non-OECD Asia has a relatively small impact on the global marginal costs of greenhouse gas abatement. However, with the accelerated demand projections, the average per capita greenhouse gas emissions in the OECD were decreased while China, India, and South-East Asia increased their per capita greenhouse gas emissions. This indicates that the costs of the greenhouse gas abatement would especially increase in the OECD region, if developing Asian countries increase their final energy consumption more rapidly than expected. - Highlights: ► Scenarios of final energy demands in developing Asia include large uncertainties. ► Impact of accelerated Asian energy demand on global mitigation costs is quite low. ► Accelerated Asian energy consumption increases GHG abatement costs in the OECD. ► 3.7 W/m 3 target is feasible in costs even with accelerated Asian energy demands. ► 2.6 W/m 2 target is beyond

  10. Energy centre microgrid model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pasonen, R.

    2011-09-15

    A simulation model of Energy centre microgrid made with PSCAD simulation software version 4.2.1 has been built in SGEM Smart Grids and Energy Markets (SGEM) work package 6.6. Microgrid is an autonomous electric power system which can operate separate from common distribution system. The idea of energy centre microgrid concept was considered in Master of Science thesis 'Community Microgrid - A Building block of Finnish Smart Grid'. The name of energy centre microgrid comes from a fact that production and storage units are concentrated into a single location, an energy centre. This centre feeds the loads which can be households or industrial loads. Power direction flow on the demand side remains same compared to the current distribution system and allows to the use of standard fuse protection in the system. The model consists of photovoltaic solar array, battery unit, variable frequency boost converter, inverter, isolation transformer and demand side (load) model. The model is capable to automatically switch to islanded mode when there is a fault in outside grid and back to parallel operation mode when fault is removed. The modelled system responses well to load changes and total harmonic distortion related to 50Hz base frequency is kept under 1.5% while operating and feeding passive load. (orig.)

  11. Distributed Generation Market Demand Model (dGen): Documentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sigrin, Benjamin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Gleason, Michael [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Preus, Robert [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Baring-Gould, Ian [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Margolis, Robert [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2016-02-01

    The Distributed Generation Market Demand model (dGen) is a geospatially rich, bottom-up, market-penetration model that simulates the potential adoption of distributed energy resources (DERs) for residential, commercial, and industrial entities in the continental United States through 2050. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed dGen to analyze the key factors that will affect future market demand for distributed solar, wind, storage, and other DER technologies in the United States. The new model builds off, extends, and replaces NREL's SolarDS model (Denholm et al. 2009a), which simulates the market penetration of distributed PV only. Unlike the SolarDS model, dGen can model various DER technologies under one platform--it currently can simulate the adoption of distributed solar (the dSolar module) and distributed wind (the dWind module) and link with the ReEDS capacity expansion model (Appendix C). The underlying algorithms and datasets in dGen, which improve the representation of customer decision making as well as the spatial resolution of analyses (Figure ES-1), also are improvements over SolarDS.

  12. Canadian energy supply and demand 1993 - 2010: Technical report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1994-12-01

    The National Energy Board has since 1959 prepared and maintained projections of energy supply requirements and has from tine to time published reports on them. The objectives of this report are to provide a comprehensive `all energy` market analysis and outlook to service as a standard of reference for all parties interested in Canadian energy issues; to provide a framework for public discussion on emerging energy issues of national importance and to monitor the prospects for the supply, demand and price of natural gas in Canada pursuant to the Market-Based Procedure for regulating. The focus of the technical report provides detailed descriptions of the analytical methods used and the quantitative results. The quantitative analysis will be of value to users who wish to develop their own views of prospects or to have a detailed assessment of the impact of alternative assumptions. 106 tabs., 171 figs.

  13. Canadian energy supply and demand 1993 - 2010: Technical report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-12-01

    The National Energy Board has since 1959 prepared and maintained projections of energy supply requirements and has from tine to time published reports on them. The objectives of this report are to provide a comprehensive 'all energy' market analysis and outlook to service as a standard of reference for all parties interested in Canadian energy issues; to provide a framework for public discussion on emerging energy issues of national importance and to monitor the prospects for the supply, demand and price of natural gas in Canada pursuant to the Market-Based Procedure for regulating. The focus of the technical report provides detailed descriptions of the analytical methods used and the quantitative results. The quantitative analysis will be of value to users who wish to develop their own views of prospects or to have a detailed assessment of the impact of alternative assumptions. 106 tabs., 171 figs

  14. Evaluating the sustainability of an energy supply system using renewable energy sources: An energy demand assessment of South Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Cedric Fitzgerald

    Sustainable energy is defined as a dynamic harmony between the equitable availability of energy-intensive goods and services to all people and the preservation of the earth for future generations. Sustainable energy development continues to be a major focus within the government and regulatory governing bodies in the electric utility industry. This is as a result of continued demand for electricity and the impact of greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generating plants on the environment by way of the greenhouse effect. A culmination of increasing concerns about climate change, the nuclear incident in Fukushima four years ago, and discussions on energy security in a world with growing energy demand have led to a movement for increasing the share of power generation from renewable energy sources. This work studies demand for electricity from primarily residential, commercial, agricultural, and industrial customers in South Carolina (SC) and its effect on the environment from coal-fired electricity generating plants. Moreover, this work studies sustainable renewable energy source-options based on the renewable resources available in the state of SC, as viable options to supplement generation from coal-fired electricity generating plants. In addition, greenhouse gas emissions and other pollutants from primarily coal-fired plants will be defined and quantified. Fundamental renewable energy source options will be defined and quantified based on availability and sustainability of SC's natural resources. This work studies the environmental, economic, and technical aspects of each renewable energy source as a sustainable energy option to replace power generation from coal-fired plants. Additionally, social aspect implications will be incorporated into each of the three aspects listed above, as these aspects are explored during the research and analysis. Electricity demand data and alternative energy source-supply data in SC are carried out and are used to develop and

  15. Single-Family Houses That Meet The Future Energy Demands

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rose, Jørgen; Svendsen, Svend

    2002-01-01

    ). Before any further tightening of the regulations are introduced, however, it is necessary to illustrate the consequences of such actions with regard to finance, building technology, indoor climate and comfort. Therefore a series of investigations and experimental projects are being launched, in order...... to examine these consequences thoroughly. The department is presently contributing to this end by participating in quite a few investigative projects, where single-family houses are designed to meet the proposed future energy demands. This paper describes the results obtained from one such project where...... the department, in co-operation with a major building entrepreneur, has developed a single-family house that shows that there are no evident problems in meeting the future energy demands....

  16. Holidays in lights: Tracking cultural patterns in demand for energy services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Román, Miguel O.; Stokes, Eleanor C.

    2015-06-01

    Successful climate change mitigation will involve not only technological innovation, but also innovation in how we understand the societal and individual behaviors that shape the demand for energy services. Traditionally, individual energy behaviors have been described as a function of utility optimization and behavioral economics, with price restructuring as the dominant policy lever. Previous research at the macro-level has identified economic activity, power generation and technology, and economic role as significant factors that shape energy use. However, most demand models lack basic contextual information on how dominant social phenomenon, the changing demographics of cities, and the sociocultural setting within which people operate, affect energy decisions and use patterns. Here we use high-quality Suomi-NPP VIIRS nighttime environmental products to: (1) observe aggregate human behavior through variations in energy service demand patterns during the Christmas and New Year's season and the Holy Month of Ramadan and (2) demonstrate that patterns in energy behaviors closely track sociocultural boundaries at the country, city, and district level. These findings indicate that energy decision making and demand is a sociocultural process as well as an economic process, often involving a combination of individual price-based incentives and societal-level factors. While nighttime satellite imagery has been used to map regional energy infrastructure distribution, tracking daily dynamic lighting demand at three major scales of urbanization is novel. This methodology can enrich research on the relative importance of drivers of energy demand and conservation behaviors at fine scales. Our initial results demonstrate the importance of seating energy demand frameworks in a social context.

  17. Holiday in Lights: Tracking Cultural Patterns in Demand for Energy Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roman, Miguel O.; Stokes, Eleanor C.

    2015-01-01

    Successful climate change mitigation will involve not only technological innovation, but also innovation in how we understand the societal and individual behaviors that shape the demand for energy services. Traditionally, individual energy behaviors have been described as a function of utility optimization and behavioral economics, with price restructuring as the dominant policy lever. Previous research at the macro-level has identified economic activity, power generation and technology, and economic role as significant factors that shape energy use. However, most demand models lack basic contextual information on how dominant social phenomenon, the changing demographics of cities, and the sociocultural setting within which people operate, affect energy decisions and use patterns. Here we use high-quality Suomi-NPP VIIRS nighttime environmental products to: (1) observe aggregate human behavior through variations in energy service demand patterns during the Christmas and New Year's season and the Holy Month of Ramadan and (2) demonstrate that patterns in energy behaviors closely track sociocultural boundaries at the country, city, and district level. These findings indicate that energy decision making and demand is a sociocultural process as well as an economic process, often involving a combination of individual price-based incentives and societal-level factors. While nighttime satellite imagery has been used to map regional energy infrastructure distribution, tracking daily dynamic lighting demand at three major scales of urbanization is novel. This methodology can enrich research on the relative importance of drivers of energy demand and conservation behaviors at fine scales. Our initial results demonstrate the importance of seating energy demand frameworks in a social context.

  18. Energy and electricity demand forecasting for nuclear power planning in developing countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1988-07-01

    This Guidebook is designed to be a reference document to forecast energy and electricity demand. It presents concepts and methodologies that have been developed to make an analytical approach to energy/electricity demand forecasting as part of the planning process. The Guidebook is divided into 6 main chapters: (Energy demand and development, energy demand analysis, electric load curve analysis, energy and electricity demand forecasting, energy and electricity demand forecasting tools used in various organizations, IAEA methodologies for energy and electricity demand forecasting) and 3 appendices (experience with case studies carried out by the IAEA, reference technical data, reference economic data). A bibliography and a glossary complete the Guidebook. Refs, figs and tabs

  19. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPLICATIONS OF THE INCREASING DEMAND FOR ENERGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Perticas Diana

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available During human society’s development on large geographical areas, a series of cultural systems have appeared and have determined a certain approach concerning the environment and social relations. These systems of thought persist even today and they are strongly influenced by individuals’ thinking and approaches in that society, thing that requires a specific approach for the implementation of these relatively new concepts (e.g. sustainable development, pollution, ecological approaches on social life. Furthermore, the continuous growth of the demand for energy in the world is seen as an alarm. Between 1970 and 1997 world energy consumption has almost doubled and it is projected to grow by about 57% during 2004-2030 and the thing which should be mentioned is that with the increasing energy demand, pollution levels will increase too. But we must not forget that electric and thermal power represent one of the basic needs of mankind, and when the fulfilment of this need started to affect the climate and implicitly human health this problem turned into a hardly manageable one. We must not forget that the world’s population is growing rapidly and the level of pollution per capita increased we might even say in direct proportion. In many cases, increased pollution has its explanation in the growing number of individuals at global level and also the increasing needs, desires, aspirations, standard of living, of these. This paper intends to objectively analyse the interconnections that arise between the environment and the growth of the demand for energy, emphasizing the devastating effects of pollution created by burning fossil fuels in order to obtain electric and thermal power as well as the current and future possibilities for the replacement of these energy reserves with renewable energy reserves. The whole analysis will be accompanied by case studies and will follow strictly imposed goals by sustainable development.

  20. Modelling residential electricity demand in the GCC countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atalla, Tarek N.; Hunt, Lester C.

    2016-01-01

    This paper aims at understanding the drivers of residential electricity demand in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries by applying the structural time series model. In addition to the economic variables of GDP and real electricity prices, the model accounts for population, weather, and a stochastic underlying energy demand trend as a proxy for efficiency and human behaviour. The resulting income and price elasticities are informative for policy makers given the paucity of previous estimates for a region with particular political structures and economies subject to large shocks. In particular, the estimates allow for a sound assessment of the impact of energy-related policies suggesting that if policy makers in the region wish to curtail future residential electricity consumption they would need to improve the efficiency of appliances and increase energy using awareness of consumers, possibly by education and marketing campaigns. Moreover, even if prices were raised the impact on curbing residential electricity growth in the region is likely to be very small given the low estimated price elasticities—unless, that is, prices were raised so high that expenditure on electricity becomes such a large proportion of income that the price elasticities increase (in absolute terms). - Highlights: • Residential electricity demand for Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and Saudi Arabia • Estimated residential electricity demand relationships using STSM/UEDT approach • LR income and price elasticities from 0.43 to 0.71 and − 0.16 to zero respectively • Impact CDD elasticities from 0.2 to 0.7 • Estimated UEDTs suggest exogenous electricity using behaviour.

  1. Demands on thermal power plants in the liberalised energy market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hein, D.; Kwanka, K.; Fischer, T.

    2005-01-01

    In the liberalised energy market, a diversified set (''mix'') of power plants will be needed. By investigating present and anticipated future criteria in detail, available technologies and outlines of further development are identified and discussed. Among them, concepts for efficiency-optimised base load plants as well as units with an improved cycling operation capability are both attributed to a specific valued benefit. Following the demand for a significant reduction of the overall greenhouse gas emissions, centralised power plants fed by fossil fuels and modified for retention of CO 2 are needed to guarantee a supply of energy at moderate costs in the 21st century. (author)

  2. Energy demand for materials in an international context.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worrell, Ernst; Carreon, Jesus Rosales

    2017-06-13

    Materials are everywhere and have determined society. The rapid increase in consumption of materials has led to an increase in the use of energy and release of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Reducing emissions in material-producing industries is a key challenge. If all of industry switched to current best practices, the energy-efficiency improvement potential would be between 20% and 35% for most sectors. While these are considerable potentials, especially for sectors that have historically paid a lot of attention to energy-efficiency improvement, realization of these potentials under current 'business as usual' conditions is slow due to a large variety of barriers and limited efforts by industry and governments around the world. Importantly, the potentials are not sufficient to achieve the deep reductions in carbon emissions that will be necessary to stay within the climate boundaries as agreed in the 2015 Paris Conference of Parties. Other opportunities need to be included in the menu of options to mitigate GHG emissions. It is essential to develop integrated policies combining energy efficiency, renewable energy and material efficiency and material demand reduction, offering the most economically attractive way to realize deep reductions in carbon emissions.This article is part of the themed issue 'Material demand reduction'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  3. Energy demand, substitution and environmental taxation: An econometric analysis of eight subsectors of the Danish economy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Niels Framroze

    2017-01-01

    in a more environmental-friendly direction. For eight subsectors of the Danish economy, time series (1966–2011) are modeled by means of partial Cointegrated VARs. Long-run demand relations are identified for all subsectors and robust price elasticities are supported in five cases. The results are used......This research contains an econometric analysis of energy demand in trade and industry which allows for substitution between electricity and other energy carriers when relative prices change. The presence of substitution suggests that taxation can be a means of changing the energy input mix...

  4. 2009 reference case scenario : Canadian energy demand and supply to 2020 : an energy market assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    The National Energy Board regulates the construction and operation of interprovincial and international oil and gas pipelines and power lines as well as the tolls and tariffs for the pipelines under its jurisdictions. The import and export of natural gas is also regulated by the NEB. The NEB examined the possible energy futures that might unfold for Canadians up to the year 2020. The factors that affect the supply of crude oil, natural gas, liquefied natural gas, electricity and coal in the short term were examined to determine the outlook for deliverability through 2020. The growing demand for energy was reviewed along with the adequacy of future energy supplies, and related issues of emerging technologies, energy infrastructure and energy exports. This assessment provided separate production outlooks for hydrocarbons, electricity and coal and outlined the key uncertainties to the supply outlook. The likely impact of recent economic, energy and policy trends on energy demand and supply were considered. It was concluded that energy markets in Canada will continue to function well. Energy prices will provide appropriate market signals for the development of energy resources to meet Canadian and export demand. A significant portion of Canadian demand for energy will be met by fossil fuels. However, the demand to move towards greener energy fuels should result in fewer greenhouse gas emissions. 1 tab., 27 figs.

  5. Modeling Supermarket Refrigeration Systems for Demand-Side Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jakob Stoustrup

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Modeling of supermarket refrigeration systems for supervisory control in the smart grid is presented in this paper. A modular modeling approach is proposed in which each module is modeled and identified separately. The focus of the work is on estimating the power consumption of the system while estimating the cold reservoir temperatures as well. The models developed for each module as well as for the overall integrated system are validated by real data collected from a supermarket in Denmark. The results show that the model is able to estimate the actual electrical power consumption with a high fidelity. Moreover a simulation benchmark is introduced based on the produced model for demand-side management in smart grid. Finally, a potential application of the proposed benchmark in direct control of the power/energy consumption is presented by a simple simulation example.

  6. Economic, demographic and social factors of energy demand in Mexican households, 2008-2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez Pena, Rafael

    This research project focuses on estimating the effect of economic, demographic, and social factors in residential energy demand in Mexico from 2008 to 2014. Therefore, it estimates demand equations for electricity, natural gas, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), coal and natural gas using Mexican household data from 2008 to 2014. It also applies accessibility theory and it estimates energy access indicators using different specifications of demand for LPG in 2014. Sprawl measures, gravity model, and central place theory are the accessibility theory supporting the energy access indicators. Results suggest the greater the household income, the population size, the educational level of the householder, the energy access, and the lower the energy price and the household size, the greater the demand for energy in Mexico from 2008 to 2014. The greater the education, the lower the demand for firewood and coal. LPG and firewood have a monopolistically competitive market structure. Energy access indicators informed by accessibility theory are statistically significant and show the expected sign when applied to LPG in Mexican household in 2014.

  7. Price and income elasticities of residential energy demand in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schulte, Isabella; Heindl, Peter

    2017-01-01

    We apply a quadratic expenditure system to estimate price and expenditure elasticities of residential energy demand (electricity and heating) in Germany. Using official expenditure data from 1993 to 2008, we estimate an expenditure elasticity for electricity of 0.3988 and of 0.4055 for space heating. The own price elasticity for electricity is −0.4310 and −0.5008 in the case of space heating. Disaggregation of households by expenditure and socio-economic composition reveals that the behavioural response to energy price changes is weaker (stronger) for low-income (top-income) households. There are considerable economies of scale in residential energy use but scale effects are not well approximated by the new OECD equivalence scale. Real increases in energy prices show a regressive pattern of incidence, implying that the welfare consequences of direct energy taxation are larger for low income households. The application of zero-elasticities in assessments of welfare consequences of energy taxation strongly underestimates potential welfare effects. The increase in inequality is 22% smaller when compared to the application of disaggregated price and income elasticities as estimated in this paper. - Highlights: • We estimate price, income, and expenditure elasticities for residential energy demand in Germany. • We differentiate elasticities by income groups and household type. • Electricity and space heating are necessary goods since the expenditure elasticities are smaller than unity. • Low-income households show a weaker reaction to changing prices when compared to high-income households. • Direct energy taxation has regressive effects, meaning that larger burdens fall upon low-income households.

  8. Future demand in electrical power and meeting this demand, in particular with the aid of nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1976-07-01

    As a part of the research program in question, the study deals with meeting the electrical power demand in the FRG until the year 2000 in the best possible way with regard to costs, and evaluating the long-term technical, ecological, and economical effects resulting thereof. With the aid of a model, the construction of additional plants and the use of the FRG's power plant network, always applying economical criteria, are investigated while allowing for adequate assurance of supply. It becomes obvious that the power plants and fuels available influence a 25-year planning period. In the year 2000, nuclear energy will play a dominating role in meeting the demand, the conventional thermal power plants will be used more for coping with the above-average medium laods, while peak loads will be met, above all, by pump storage stations. (UA) [de

  9. The energy issue. Demand and potentials, utilization, risks, costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heinloth, K.

    1997-01-01

    Will the demand for energy be growing or decreasing in future? How are prosperity and energy consumption linked up? How can the CO 2 reduction target announced at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro be achieved? What is the price for ''''benign'''' energy as compared to ''''malignant'''' energy? What is the future contribution to energy supplies that can be expected from renewable energy sources? What are the good and the evil aspects of nuclear energy? These are questions that will sooner or later concern us all, and in any case when it comes to paying the bill for our present squandering. The author Klaus Heinloth, a renown expert in this field, presents with this book a scientifically well-founded and unbiased analysis and source of information that may serve politicians as a basis for objective debates about the future energy policy. Provided with a generous grant by the Heraeus foundation, the author was free to pursue his studies and inquiries independent of industry and relevant associations, and collect, evaluate and analyse the required information. (orig./CB) [de

  10. Global impacts of energy demand on the freshwater resources of nations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holland, Robert Alan; Scott, Kate A; Flörke, Martina; Brown, Gareth; Ewers, Robert M; Farmer, Elizabeth; Kapos, Valerie; Muggeridge, Ann; Scharlemann, Jörn P W; Taylor, Gail; Barrett, John; Eigenbrod, Felix

    2015-12-01

    The growing geographic disconnect between consumption of goods, the extraction and processing of resources, and the environmental impacts associated with production activities makes it crucial to factor global trade into sustainability assessments. Using an empirically validated environmentally extended global trade model, we examine the relationship between two key resources underpinning economies and human well--being-energy and freshwater. A comparison of three energy sectors (petroleum, gas, and electricity) reveals that freshwater consumption associated with gas and electricity production is largely confined within the territorial boundaries where demand originates. This finding contrasts with petroleum, which exhibits a varying ratio of territorial to international freshwater consumption, depending on the origin of demand. For example, although the United States and China have similar demand associated with the petroleum sector, international freshwater consumption is three times higher for the former than the latter. Based on mapping patterns of freshwater consumption associated with energy sectors at subnational scales, our analysis also reveals concordance between pressure on freshwater resources associated with energy production and freshwater scarcity in a number of river basins globally. These energy-driven pressures on freshwater resources in areas distant from the origin of energy demand complicate the design of policy to ensure security of fresh water and energy supply. Although much of the debate around energy is focused on greenhouse gas emissions, our findings highlight the need to consider the full range of consequences of energy production when designing policy.

  11. An energy service company's perspective on demand-side management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bullock, C.G.

    1993-01-01

    In 1985, Massachusetts Electric Company held a bid for demand reduction to be supplied by energy service companies (ESCOs). It was one of the first demand-side management (DSM) bidding programs held in the United States. Since then, several DSM auctions have been held. Many people expected DSM bidding to be a key component in integrated resource planning. Many observed similarities with supply side bidding, and expected DSM bidding to grow according. Today, more than $2 billion annually is being spent by utilities on DSM programs. Less than $100 million is spent with ESCOs. This chapter explores some of the reasons for the current situation and suggests some alternatives, which could benefit all of the players

  12. A comparative study of long-term energy demand and potential greenhouse gas emission control in Bangladesh

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khalaquazzaman, Mohammad

    2005-02-01

    This report presents a comparative study of long-term energy demand and potential greenhouse gas emissions projections from energy demand and supply sectors in Bangladesh covering the period 2000 to 2020. The study was conducted employing the IAEA's tool ENPEP- BALANCE model. This study presents a reliable energy system plan with minimal carbon emission for the country. Primary energy demands distributed by energy carriers and electricity demand have been projected based on macro-economic growth scenarios constructed for national energy policy of 1996. The conservation of indigenous energy resources was emphasized to build a long-term secured energy supply system. The potential energy supply options including nuclear energy and prospective greenhouse gas mitigation options were analyzed

  13. Energy demand, economic growth, and energy efficiency - the Bakun dam-induced sustainable energy policy revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keong, C.Y.

    2005-01-01

    In embarking on a dynamic course of economic development and industrial modernism, Malaysia sees the need to increase its electricity generation capacity through the development of a mega-dam project - the Bakun dam. Although hydroelectricity generation offers one of the benign options in accommodating the increasing energy consumption per capita in Malaysia, it is argued that the construction of Bakun's dam which involves a complete and irreversible destruction of 69,640 ha of old forest ecosystem remains a difficult and uncertain endeavour. It is further argued that apart from mega-dam technology, there are also other means to orchestrate a sustainable energy system in Malaysia. These include the implementation of demand and supply initiatives, such as the deployment of energy saving technology or influencing behavioral change towards a sustainable energy consumption pattern

  14. Energy demand and mix for global welfare and stable ecosystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jess, A.; Kern, C.; Kaiser, P.

    2012-07-01

    Social indicators show that an annual energy consumption of 2 tonnes of oil equivalent per capita (toe pc) should be enough to ensure a sufficient global average level of welfare and happiness. Hence, rich countries with currently up to 8 toe pc should reduce and poor should legitimately increase their energy demand until 2 toe pc are reached. At today's global energy mix with 80% fossil fuels, even this optimistic scenario will inevitably lead to a conflict between welfare and stable ecosystems. The population will be 9 billion by 2050 and the ecological footprint would rise from today 1.5 to 2 planet Earths. The only option to reach the desired footprint of one planet Earth is a complete shift from fossil fuels to renewables. (orig.)

  15. Energy demand and environmental taxes: the case of Greece

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rapanos, V.T.; Polemis, M.L.

    2005-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effects that energy taxes may have on reducing environmental pollution in Greece. We study the demand for residential energy for the period 1965-1998, and on the basis of these estimates we make forecasts for CO 2 emissions in the coming years. Furthermore we develop alternative scenarios for tax changes, and study their effects on CO 2 emissions. According to our findings the harmonization of the Greek energy taxes to the average European Union levels implies an increase of total CO 2 emissions by 6% annually. If taxes are raised, however, to the highest European Union levels, the CO 2 emissions are restricted significantly. These empirical findings may indicate that environmental taxation cannot be the unique instrument for combating pollution. (author)

  16. Energy demand and environmental taxes: the case of Greece

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rapanos, Vassilis T.; Polemis, Michael L.

    2005-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effects that energy taxes may have on reducing environmental pollution in Greece. We study the demand for residential energy for the period 1965-1998, and on the basis of these estimates we make forecasts for CO 2 emissions in the coming years. Furthermore we develop alternative scenarios for tax changes, and study their effects on CO 2 emissions. According to our findings the harmonization of the Greek energy taxes to the average European Union levels implies an increase of total CO 2 emissions by 6% annually. If taxes are raised, however, to the highest European Union levels, the CO 2 emissions are restricted significantly. These empirical findings may indicate that environmental taxation cannot be the unique instrument for combating pollution

  17. Optimal balance between energy demand and onsite energy generation for robust net zero energy buildings considering future scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kotireddy, R.R.; Hoes, P.; Hensen, J.L.M.

    2015-01-01

    Net-zero energy buildings have usually very low energy demand, and consequently heating ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems are designed and controlled to meet this low energy demand. However, a number of uncertainties in the building use, operation and external conditions such as

  18. Energy demand and supply prompts record results for Canadian companies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    2005-01-01

    The Canadian energy industry has shown consistent growth in recent years. This trend is expected to continue due high energy prices resulting from concerns regarding energy supply and increased demand for energy. The 2005 annual survey by Pricewaterhouse Coopers states that Canadian energy sectors have seen average revenues grow by 12.4 per cent from $934 million to $1.05 billion for conventional companies and by 30.5 per cent from $285 million to $372 million for income trusts. The survey provides a summary of Canada's energy industry, including crude oil, natural gas, oil and gas services, oil sands and electricity. The financial and operating information of the top 100 Canadian public oil and gas companies is also summarized, along with 31 oil and gas income trusts. The survey found that crude oil prices were influenced by price volatility and record highs in 2004. Price volatility was due to global political tensions, increased demand from China, India and the United States and lower crude supplies in the United States. Production of Canadian crude, including conventional, synthetic crude, heavy crude, natural gas and natural gas from liquids continued to increase in 2004. A strong pricing environment will likely continue, according to industry expectations, due to political instability in the Middle East and OPEC's tight crude supply strategy. Strong pricing is expected to enhance natural gas economics and promote increased capital investment and production. In 2004, the oil and gas service industry drilled a record 21,593 wells in Western Canada and a record 28,630 drilling permits will be issued. In 2004, there was also a strong demand for field services and improvements in many manufacturing firms. Production from Canadian oil sands in 2004 was over 1 million barrels per day. An estimated 174 billion barrels of oil lie within the oil sands, making Canada the second largest country in terms of global proven crude oil reserves. Several oil sands projects have

  19. Error Correction Model of the Demand for Money in Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Qayyum, Abdul

    1998-01-01

    The paper estimated dynamic demand for money (Currency) function for Pakistan. it is concluded that in the long run money demand depends on income, rate of inflation and bond rate. The rate of Inflation and rate of interst on deposits emerged as important determinant of money demand in the short run. Moreover dynamic model remans stable througtout the study period.

  20. A meta-analysis on the price elasticity of energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Labandeira, Xavier; Labeaga, José M.; López-Otero, Xiral

    2017-01-01

    Price elasticities of energy demand have become increasingly relevant in estimating the socio-economic and environmental effects of energy policies or other events that influence the price of energy goods. Since the 1970s, a large number of academic papers have provided both short and long-term price elasticity estimates for different countries using several models, data and estimation techniques. Yet the literature offers a rather wide range of estimates for the price elasticities of demand for energy. This paper quantitatively summarizes the recent, but sizeable, empirical evidence to facilitate a sounder economic assessment of (in some cases policy-related) energy price changes. It uses meta-analysis to identify the main factors affecting short and long term elasticity results for energy, in general, as well as for specific products, i.e., electricity, natural gas, gasoline, diesel and heating oil. - Highlights: • An updated and wider meta-analysis on price elasticities of energy demand. • Energy goods are shown to be price inelastic both in the short and long-term. • Results are relevant for a proper design and implementation of energy policies. • Our results refer to energy, as a whole, and specific energy goods.

  1. Innovations in managing demand and supply of energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Loughborough, K. [Enwave District Energy, Toronto, ON (Canada)

    2004-07-01

    Enwave District Energy Ltd. is one of North America's largest district energy system manufacturers which provides outsourced heating and cooling to more than 130 major buildings in downtown Toronto. This presentation described innovations in managing the supply and demand of energy, and provided several viewgraphs depicting service heating, district cooling, and the district energy distribution network in Toronto. One of Enwave's greatest innovations is the deep lake water cooling (DLWC) district cooling system. The $175 million capital joint infrastructure project which began in June 2002 will be on line in 2004. The district cooling system represents the largest renewable energy project in Canada with a total cooling capacity of 52,000 tons. The system relies on DLWC and conventional chillers. DLWC uses naturally cold water from Lake Ontario. The coldness from the water is used to provide air conditioning to the buildings in Toronto. The benefits include 75 per cent reduced energy use, the elimination of ozone depleting refrigerants, and the use of a renewable resource for providing a stable cooling supply. Emissions of carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides and oxides of sulphur are also reduced. The benefits to the city include a reduced strain on the electricity infrastructure, cleaner air and improved health. tabs., figs.

  2. New vision of demand side management strategy as the main tool in cooperation suppliers and consumers of electrical energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szkutnik, J.

    2012-01-01

    The paper presents the complex proposal for the implementation of the demand side management in the Polish energy sector. The issue of demand side management is well known in the world, European and domestic dimensions. The experience of western countries shows that at least to some extent, the demand side management strategy is already implemented there. However, Polish experience is far too insufficient. Demand side management consists in efficient management of energy demand as well as adoption of this demand i.e. changing the load. The decrease of energy consumption in the moment of its peak demand leads to the balance between the demand and supply in the system, which influences the market price of energy. If certain mechanisms are implemented that will cause that final receivers will be willing to adjust their demand for energy, we will create the Demand Response, which is an efficient tool in the demand side management strategy. It is assumed that electronic meters will bring a real quality change. The undertakings based on initiatives of the Polish Energy Regulatory Office that promote the concept of implementation of electronic metering in the Polish energy sector prove that Poland is determined to improve its energy efficiency. The report describes the concept of the electronic meters that enables the realisation of the demand side management strategy as well as other complementary solutions that make the strategy even more efficient. In this field, it is planned to establish a dedicated loyalty programmes for energy receivers. The concept includes also the combination of the model solutions with the campaign 'energy efficiency' organised by the Ministry of Economy, which aims at fulfilling the requirements of the directive 2006/32/EC on energy end-use efficiency and energy services. As complementary solution in this new vision to add the system of recycling of waste heat home appliance devices. (Author)

  3. From demand side management (DSM) to energy efficiency services: A Finnish case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Apajalahti, Eeva-Lotta; Lovio, Raimo; Heiskanen, Eva

    2015-01-01

    Energy conservation is expected to contribute significantly to climate change mitigation and energy security. Traditionally, energy companies have had strong role in providing Demand Side Management (DSM) measures. However, after energy market liberalization in Europe, energy companies' DSM activities declined. In response, the EU issued Directive (2006/32/EC) on energy end-use efficiency and energy services (ESD) to motivate energy companies to promote energy efficiency and conservation, closely followed by Directive (2012/27/EU) on energy efficiency (EED), requiring the setting up energy efficiency obligation schemes. Despite strong political and economic motivation, energy companies struggle to develop energy efficiency services in liberalised energy markets due to conflicting institutional demands, which arise from contradicting policy requirements and customer relations. The main challenges in developing new innovative energy efficiency services, evidenced by an in-depth case study, were (1) the unbundling of energy company operations, which makes it difficult to develop services when the contribution of several business units is required and (2) the distrust among energy end-users, which renders the business logic of energy saving contract models self-contradictory. On the basis of the research, avenues out of these dilemmas are suggested. -- Highlights: •Energy companies struggle to become energy service provides •We explore the development of new energy saving business solutions •Dispersed organisational structure leaves energy saving business as isolated function •Strong consumer scepticism towards energy companies as providers of energy saving •More emphasis on the changing company-customer relationship is needed

  4. Modeling workforce demand in North Dakota: a System Dynamics approach

    OpenAIRE

    Muminova, Adiba

    2015-01-01

    This study investigates the dynamics behind the workforce demand and attempts to predict the potential effects of future changes in oil prices on workforce demand in North Dakota. The study attempts to join System Dynamics and Input-Output models in order to overcome shortcomings in both of the approaches and gain a more complete understanding of the issue of workforce demand. A system dynamics simulation of workforce demand within different economic sector...

  5. Energy demand and supply in human skeletal muscle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barclay, C J

    2017-04-01

    The energy required for muscle contraction is provided by the breakdown of ATP but the amount of ATP in muscles cells is sufficient to power only a short duration of contraction. Buffering of ATP by phosphocreatine, a reaction catalysed by creatine kinase, extends the duration of activity possible but sustained activity depends on continual regeneration of PCr. This is achieved using ATP generated by oxidative processes and, during intense activity, by anaerobic glycolysis. The rate of ATP breakdown ranges from 70 to 140 mM min -1 during isometric contractions of various intensity to as much as 400 mM min -1 during intense, dynamic activity. The maximum rate of oxidative energy supply in untrained people is ~50 mM min -1 which, if the contraction duty cycle is 0.5 as is often the case in cyclic activity, is sufficient to match an ATP breakdown rate during contraction of 100 mM min -1 . During brief, intense activity the rate of ATP turnover can exceed the rates of PCr regeneration by combined oxidative and glycolytic energy supply, resulting in a net decrease in PCr concentration. Glycolysis has the capacity to produce between 30 and 50 mM of ATP so that, for example, anaerobic glycolysis could provide ATP at an average of 100 mM min -1 over 30 s of exhausting activity. The creatine kinase reaction plays an important role not only in buffering ATP but also in communicating energy demand from sites of ATP breakdown to the mitochondria. In that role, creatine kinases acts to slow and attenuate the response of mitochondria to changes in energy demand.

  6. Including Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Policies in Electricity Demand Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Find more information on how state and local air agencies can identify on-the-books EE/RE policies, develop a methodology for projecting a jurisdiction's energy demand, and estimate the change in power sector emissions.

  7. Growing an emerging energy workforce: forecasting labour demand and gaining access to emerging energy skills

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomsen, V.

    2006-01-01

    This paper discusses the needs of emerging energies sector in terms of growing an emerging energy workforce, forecasting labour demands and gaining access to emerging energy skills. It will require industrial renewal and innovation and not just selling our resources. It will also require educating ourselves to utilise our own finished products. Conservation is a key element in a sustainable energy future. finally, a market for renewable energy has been established in Canada

  8. Demand-side management and European environmental and energy goals: An optimal complementary approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergaentzlé, Claire; Clastres, Cédric; Khalfallah, Haikel

    2014-01-01

    Demand side management (DSM) in electricity markets could improve energy efficiency and achieve environmental targets through controlled consumption. For the past 10 years or so DSM programmes have registered significant results. However, detailed analysis of its real impact as observed by a large number of pilot studies suggests that such programmes need to be fine-tuned to suit clearly identified conditions. This study aims to provide recommendations for the instruments to be used to prompt demand response with a view to maximizing energy and environmental efficiencies of various countries. The present study suggests that different DSM models should be deployed depending on the specific generation mix in any given country. Beside the natural benefits from cross-borders infrastructures, DSM improves the flexibility and reliability of the energy system, absorbing some shock on generation mix. We show efficiency increases with demand response but at a decreasing rate. So, according to rebound and report effects, simple DSM tools could be preferred. - Highlights: • Demand side management could improve energy and environmental efficiency. • Several instruments should be used to achieve significant load-shedding. • DSM models should be deployed depending on generation mix. • Efficiency increases with demand response but at a decreasing rate. • Rebound and report effects reduce positive impacts

  9. Energy demand in the Norwegian building stock: Scenarios on potential reduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sartori, Igor; Wachenfeldt, Bjorn Jensen; Hestnes, Anne Grete

    2009-01-01

    A model has been developed for studying the effect of three hypothetical approaches in reducing electricity and energy demand in the Norwegian building stock: wide diffusion of thermal carriers, heat pumps and conservation measures, respectively. Combinations of these are also considered. The model has a demand side perspective, considers both residential and service sectors, and calculates energy flows from net to delivered energy. Energy demand is given by the product of activity and intensity matrices. The activity levels are defined for the stock and the new construction, renovation and demolition flows. The intensity properties are defined in archetypes, and are the result of different energy class and heating carriers share options. The scenarios are shaped by combining the activity flows with different archetypes. The results show that adopting conservation measures on a large scale does allow reducing both electricity and total energy demand from present day levels while the building stock keeps growing. The results also highlight the importance of making a clear distinction between the assumptions on intensity and activity levels.

  10. Energy demand in the Norwegian building stock. Scenarios on potential reduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sartori, Igor; Hestnes, Anne Grete [Department of Architectural Design, History and Technology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), 7491 Trondheim (Norway); Wachenfeldt, Bjoern Jensen [SINTEF Building and Infrastructure, 7465 Trondheim (Norway)

    2009-05-15

    A model has been developed for studying the effect of three hypothetical approaches in reducing electricity and energy demand in the Norwegian building stock: wide diffusion of thermal carriers, heat pumps and conservation measures, respectively. Combinations of these are also considered. The model has a demand side perspective, considers both residential and service sectors, and calculates energy flows from net to delivered energy. Energy demand is given by the product of activity and intensity matrices. The activity levels are defined for the stock and the new construction, renovation and demolition flows. The intensity properties are defined in archetypes, and are the result of different energy class and heating carriers share options. The scenarios are shaped by combining the activity flows with different archetypes. The results show that adopting conservation measures on a large scale does allow reducing both electricity and total energy demand from present day levels while the building stock keeps growing. The results also highlight the importance of making a clear distinction between the assumptions on intensity and activity levels. (author)

  11. Energy demand in the Norwegian building stock: Scenarios on potential reduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sartori, Igor [Department of Architectural Design, History and Technology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), 7491 Trondheim (Norway)], E-mail: igor.sartori@sintef.no; Wachenfeldt, Bjorn Jensen [SINTEF Building and Infrastructure, 7465 Trondheim (Norway); Hestnes, Anne Grete [Department of Architectural Design, History and Technology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), 7491 Trondheim (Norway)

    2009-05-15

    A model has been developed for studying the effect of three hypothetical approaches in reducing electricity and energy demand in the Norwegian building stock: wide diffusion of thermal carriers, heat pumps and conservation measures, respectively. Combinations of these are also considered. The model has a demand side perspective, considers both residential and service sectors, and calculates energy flows from net to delivered energy. Energy demand is given by the product of activity and intensity matrices. The activity levels are defined for the stock and the new construction, renovation and demolition flows. The intensity properties are defined in archetypes, and are the result of different energy class and heating carriers share options. The scenarios are shaped by combining the activity flows with different archetypes. The results show that adopting conservation measures on a large scale does allow reducing both electricity and total energy demand from present day levels while the building stock keeps growing. The results also highlight the importance of making a clear distinction between the assumptions on intensity and activity levels.

  12. Short- and long-run demand for energy in Mexico: a cointegration approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galindo, L.M.

    2005-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to estimate the demands for the different types of energy consumption for the Mexican economy over the period 1965-2001. These demands are modeled as a function of output and the own real price. The Johansen (J. Econ. Dynamics Control 12 (1988) 231) procedure and the likelihood ratio tests indicate the existence of long-run and stable relationships between each type of energy demand and income with the exception of the industrial sector where the cointegrating vector also includes the relative prices. The weak exogeneity tests indicate that energy consumption and income do not reject the null hypothesis of weak exogeneity when relative prices are weak exogenous. The final econometric models show that relative prices in the short run are relevant in all cases, with the exception of the residential sector. These results indicate that in Mexico the demand for energy is fundamentally driven by income and that the effect of the relative prices is basically concentrated on the short run with the exception of the industrial sector, which also shows a long-term price impact. The strong dependence of energy consumption with respect to income and the price inelastic response indicates that it is necessary to introduce strong measures to decouple energy consumption from output in order to obtain sustainable economic growth in Mexico

  13. Building stock dynamics and its impacts on materials and energy demand in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong, Lixuan; Zhou, Nan; Feng, Wei; Khanna, Nina; Fridley, David; Zhao, Yongqiang; Sandholt, Kaare

    2016-01-01

    China hosts a large amount of building stocks, which is nearly 50 billion square meters. Moreover, annual new construction is growing fast, representing half of the world's total. The trend is expected to continue through the year 2050. Impressive demand for new residential and commercial construction, relative shorter average building lifetime, and higher material intensities have driven massive domestic production of energy intensive building materials such as cement and steel. This paper developed a bottom-up building stock turnover model to project the growths, retrofits and retirements of China's residential and commercial building floor space from 2010 to 2050. It also applied typical material intensities and energy intensities to estimate building materials demand and energy consumed to produce these building materials. By conducting scenario analyses of building lifetime, it identified significant potentials of building materials and energy demand conservation. This study underscored the importance of addressing building material efficiency, improving building lifetime and quality, and promoting compact urban development to reduce energy and environment consequences in China. - Highlights: •Growths of China's building floorspace were projected from 2010 to 2050. •A building stock turnover model was built to reflect annual building stock dynamics. •Building related materials and energy demand were projected.

  14. Impacts of Climate Change on Energy Consumption and Peak Demand in Buildings: A Detailed Regional Approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dirks, James A.; Gorrissen, Willy J.; Hathaway, John E.; Skorski, Daniel C.; Scott, Michael J.; Pulsipher, Trenton C.; Huang, Maoyi; Liu, Ying; Rice, Jennie S.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents the results of numerous commercial and residential building simulations, with the purpose of examining the impact of climate change on peak and annual building energy consumption over the portion of the Eastern Interconnection (EIC) located in the United States. The climate change scenario considered (IPCC A2 scenario as downscaled from the CASCaDE data set) has changes in mean climate characteristics as well as changes in the frequency and duration of intense weather events. This investigation examines building energy demand for three annual periods representative of climate trends in the CASCaDE data set at the beginning, middle, and end of the century--2004, 2052, and 2089. Simulations were performed using the Building ENergy Demand (BEND) model which is a detailed simulation platform built around EnergyPlus. BEND was developed in collaboration with the Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA), a modeling framework designed to simulate the complex interactions among climate, energy, water, and land at decision-relevant spatial scales. Over 26,000 building configurations of different types, sizes, vintages, and, characteristics which represent the population of buildings within the EIC, are modeled across the 3 EIC time zones using the future climate from 100 locations within the target region, resulting in nearly 180,000 spatially relevant simulated demand profiles for each of the 3 years. In this study, the building stock characteristics are held constant based on the 2005 building stock in order to isolate and present results that highlight the impact of the climate signal on commercial and residential energy demand. Results of this analysis compare well with other analyses at their finest level of specificity. This approach, however, provides a heretofore unprecedented level of specificity across multiple spectrums including spatial, temporal, and building characteristics. This capability enables the ability to

  15. Modelling global container freight transport demand

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tavasszy, L.A.; Ivanova, O.; Halim, R.A.

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this chapter is to discuss methods and techniques for a quantitative and descriptive analysis of future container transport demand at a global level. Information on future container transport flows is useful for various purposes. It is instrumental for the assessment of returns of

  16. Electricity demand in France: what's at stake for the energy transition?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berghmans, Nicolas

    2017-02-01

    This study identifies five key issues linked to electricity consumption to be taken into consideration in the management of the French power system transition: articulating the building stock renovation strategy and electricity consumption; integrating demand for electricity stemming from the development of electric vehicles; addressing winter 'peak' demand with specific demand-side policies; establishing energy demand management economic models as a flexible solution for the power system; identifying the impact of the emergence of a power system that is decentralised, balanced locally and connected with other energy carriers on the nature of demand for power from the grid. In the context of weak economic and demographic growth, the recent stabilization of electricity demand in France can be attributed to 'structural' factors, i.e. the continued expansion of the tertiary sector in the economy and the acceleration in energy efficiency gains. This evolution was poorly anticipated by stakeholders in the sector, which contributed to an imbalance between electricity demand and supply in Europe. In the absence of a major disruption, planning for transition in the electrical system should be made assuming relatively stable demand. However, major transformations will change the nature of the requirements placed on the electricity system: the times at which energy is consumed, the ability to manage the demand side of the system, and the geographical location of electricity demand within the network. Five key challenges are identified to anticipate the development of electricity consumption patterns: the role of electricity in satisfying building sector heating requirements, the integration of electric vehicle charging, the evolution of the winter demand peak, the development of demand-side management, and the emergence of an electric system based on local-level balancing. Too often considered an exogenous factor, the development in electricity consumption is in fact central

  17. Fuel demand elasticities for energy and environmental policies: Indian sample survey evidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gundimeda, Haripriya; Koehlin, Gunnar

    2008-01-01

    India has been running large-scale interventions in the energy sector over the last decades. Still, there is a dearth of reliable and readily available price and income elasticities of demand to base these on, especially for domestic use of traditional fuels. This study uses the linear approximate Almost Ideal Demand System (LA-AIDS) using micro data of more than 100,000 households sampled across India. The LA-AIDS model is expanded by specifying the intercept as a linear function of household characteristics. Marshallian and Hicksian price and expenditure elasticities of demand for four main fuels are estimated for both urban and rural areas by different income groups. These can be used to evaluate recent and current energy policies. The results can also be used for energy projections and carbon dioxide simulations given different growth rates for different segments of the Indian population. (author)

  18. Demand-Side Management and European environmental and energy goals. An optimal complementary approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergaentzle, Claire; Clastres, Cedric; Khalfallah, Haikel

    2013-12-01

    Demand side management (DSM) in electricity markets could improve energy efficiency and achieve environmental targets through controlled consumption. For the past 10 years or so DSM programs have registered significant results. However, detailed analysis of its real impact as observed by a large number of pilot studies suggests that such programs need to be fine-tuned to suit clearly identified conditions. This study aims to provide recommendations for the instruments to be used to prompt demand response with a view to maximizing energy and environmental efficiencies of various countries. The present study suggests that different DSM models should be deployed depending on the specific generation mix in any given country. Beside the natural benefits from cross-borders infrastructures, DSM improves the flexibility and reliability of the energy system, absorbing some shock on generation mix. We show efficiency increases with demand response but at a decreasing rate. So, according to rebound and report effects, simple DSM tools could be preferred. (authors)

  19. Proceedings of the Chinese-American symposium on energy markets and the future of energy demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meyers, S. (ed.)

    1988-11-01

    The Symposium was organized by the Energy Research Institute of the State Economic Commission of China, and the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory and Johns Hopkins University from the United States. It was held at the Johns Hopkins University Nanjing Center in late June 1988. It was attended by about 15 Chinese and an equal number of US experts on various topics related to energy demand and supply. Each presenter is one of the best observers of the energy situation in their field. A Chinese and US speaker presented papers on each topic. In all, about 30 papers were presented over a period of two and one half days. Each paper was translated into English and Chinese. The Chinese papers provide an excellent overview of the emerging energy demand and supply situation in China and the obstacles the Chinese planners face in managing the expected increase in demand for energy. These are matched by papers that discuss the energy situation in the US and worldwide, and the implications of the changes in the world energy situation on both countries. The papers in Part 1 provide historical background and discuss future directions. The papers in Part 2 focus on the historical development of energy planning and policy in each country and the methodologies and tools used for projecting energy demand and supply. The papers in Part 3 examine the pattern of energy demand, the forces driving demand, and opportunities for energy conservation in each of the major sectors in China and the US. The papers in Part 4 deal with the outlook for global and Pacific region energy markets and the development of the oil and natural gas sector in China.

  20. The job demands-resources model : state of the art

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakker, A.B.; Demerouti, E.

    2007-01-01

    Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to give a state-of-the art overview of the Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) model Design/methodology/approach - The strengths and weaknesses of the demand-control model and the effort-reward imbalance model regarding their predictive value for employee well being

  1. Autonomous efficiency improvement or income elasticity of energy demand: Does it matter?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Webster, Mort; Paltsev, Sergey; Reilly, John

    2008-01-01

    Observations of historical energy consumption, energy prices, and income growth in industrial economies exhibit a trend in improving energy efficiency even when prices are constant or falling. Two alternative explanations of this phenomenon are: a productivity change that uses less energy and a structural change in the economy in response to rising income. It is not possible to distinguish among these from aggregate data, and economic energy models for forecasting emissions simulate one, as an exogenous time trend, or the other, as energy demand elasticity with respect to income, or both processes for projecting energy demand into the future. In this paper, we ask whether and how it matters which process one uses for projecting energy demand and carbon emissions. We compare two versions of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, one using a conventional efficiency time trend approach and the other using an income elasticity approach. We demonstrate that while these two versions yield equivalent projections in the near-term, that they diverge in two important ways: long-run projections and under uncertainty in future productivity growth. We suggest that an income dependent approach may be preferable to the exogenous approach

  2. China's building energy demand: Long-term implications from a detailed assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eom, Jiyong; Clarke, Leon; Kim, Son H.; Kyle, Page; Patel, Pralit

    2012-01-01

    Buildings are an important contributor to China's energy consumption and attendant CO 2 emissions. Measures to address energy consumption and associated emissions from the buildings sector will be an important part of strategy to reduce the country's CO 2 emissions. This study presents a detailed, service-based model of China's building energy demand, nested in the GCAM (Global Change Assessment Model) integrated assessment framework. Using the model, we explored long-term pathways of China's building energy demand and identified opportunities to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. A range of different scenarios was also developed to gain insights into how China's building sector might evolve and what the implications might be for improved building energy technology and carbon policies. The analysis suggests that China's building energy growth will not wane anytime soon, although technology improvement will put downward pressure on this growth: In the reference scenarios, the sector's final energy demand will increase by 110–150% by 2050 and 160–220% by 2095 from its 2005 level. Also, regardless of the scenarios represented, the growth will involve the continued, rapid electrification of the buildings sector throughout the century, and this transition will be accelerated by the implementation of carbon policy. -- Highlights: ► We developed a building energy model for China, nested in an integrated-assessment framework. ► We explore long-term pathways of China's building energy use by implementing a range of scenarios. ► China's building energy consumption will continue to grow and be electrified over the century. ► Improved building energy technology will slow down the growth in building energy consumption. ► Electrification will be accelerated by the implementation of carbon policy.

  3. The role of efficiency improvements vs. price effects for modeling passenger car transport demand and energy demand—Lessons from European countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ajanovic, Amela; Haas, Reinhard

    2012-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to analyze the impact of changes in fuel prices and fuel intensity (i.e. liters of fuel used per 100 kilometers) on overall fuel (gasoline and diesel) consumption and on the demand for vehicle km driven in car passenger transport. This is important for deriving effective policy portfolios consisting of fuel taxes and technical standards such as fuel intensity mandates or specific CO 2 emission limits. To extract these impacts, we apply cointegration analyses to six European countries and their aggregate over the period 1970–2007. We consider the impact of fuel prices, household income and fuel intensity on fuel consumption. Furthermore, we investigate how changes in fuel prices and fuel intensity interact, analyzing the rebound effect due to lower fuel intensity and due to the switch to diesel. Because we find a high rebound effect with 44% more km driven if fuel intensity is improved 100%, the major conclusion of our analysis for policy makers is that technical standards as the only policy instrument will have limited success. Rather we recommend increased fuel taxes along with fuel intensity standards so that the taxes compensate for the rebound due to the standards. - Highlights: ► We find a high rebound effect with 44% more km driven if fuel intensity is improved. ► Technical standards as the only policy instrument will have limited success. ► Fuel taxes accompanied to fuel intensity standards may compensate the rebound effect.

  4. Development of demand functions and their inclusion in linear programming forecasting models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chamberlin, J.H.

    1976-05-01

    The purpose of the paper is to present a method for including demand directly within a linear programming model, and to use this method to analyze the effect of the Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactor upon the nuclear energy system

  5. Long-term outlook of energy demand and supply in Japan. Estimation of energy demand and supply for 'Nuclear Energy Vision 2100' of JAEA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tatematsu, Kenji; Kawasaki, Hirotsugu; Nemoto, Masahiro; Murakami, Masakazu

    2009-06-01

    In this study, we showed an energy demand and supply scenario toward the year 2100 in Japan, which underlies JAEA's 'Nuclear Energy Vision 2100' published in October 2008. This energy demand and supply scenario aimed at the coexistence of the reduction of the carbon dioxide emission and the energy security through reduction of the fossil fuel usage, positive electrification and the nuclear energy usage. We reduced the ratio of the fossil fuel in the primary energy supply to about 1/3 and extend the share of renewable and nuclear energy to 70% from current 15%. As a result, the carbon dioxide emission was reduced to current 10%, and it developed that the half was the contribution of the nuclear energy. (author)

  6. A Theoretic Model of Transport Logistics Demand

    OpenAIRE

    Natalija Jolić; Nikolina Brnjac; Ivica Oreb

    2006-01-01

    Concerning transport logistics as relation between transportand integrated approaches to logistics, some transport and logisticsspecialists consider the tenn tautological. However,transport is one of the components of logistics, along with inventories,resources, warehousing, infonnation and goods handling.Transport logistics considers wider commercial and operationalframeworks within which the flow of goods is plannedand managed. The demand for transport logistics services canbe valorised as ...

  7. Optimum community energy storage system for demand load shifting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parra, David; Norman, Stuart A.; Walker, Gavin S.; Gillott, Mark

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • PbA-acid and lithium-ion batteries are optimised up to a 100-home community. • A 4-period real-time pricing and Economy 7 (2-period time-of-use) are compared. • Li-ion batteries perform worse with Economy 7 for small communities and vice versa. • The community approach reduced the levelised cost by 56% compared to a single home. • Heat pumps reduced the levelised cost and increased the profitability of batteries. - Abstract: Community energy storage (CES) is becoming an attractive technological option to facilitate the use of distributed renewable energy generation, manage demand loads and decarbonise the residential sector. There is strong interest in understanding the techno-economic benefits of using CES systems, which energy storage technology is more suitable and the optimum CES size. In this study, the performance including equivalent full cycles and round trip efficiency of lead-acid (PbA) and lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries performing demand load shifting are quantified as a function of the size of the community using simulation-based optimisation. Two different retail tariffs are compared: a time-of-use tariff (Economy 7) and a real-time-pricing tariff including four periods based on the electricity prices on the wholesale market. Additionally, the economic benefits are quantified when projected to two different years: 2020 and a hypothetical zero carbon year. The findings indicate that the optimum PbA capacity was approximately twice the optimum Li-ion capacity in the case of the real-time-pricing tariff and around 1.6 times for Economy 7 for any community size except a single home. The levelised cost followed a negative logarithmic trend while the internal rate of return followed a positive logarithmic trend as a function of the size of the community. PbA technology reduced the levelised cost down to 0.14 £/kW h when projected to the year 2020 for the retail tariff Economy 7. CES systems were sized according to the demand load and

  8. Survey of Models on Demand, Customer Base-Line and Demand Response and Their Relationships in the Power Market

    OpenAIRE

    Heshmati, Almas

    2012-01-01

    The increasing use of demand-side management as a tool to reliably meet electricity demand at peak time has stimulated interest among researchers, consumers and producer organizations, managers, regulators and policymakers, This research reviews the growing literature on models used to study demand, consumer baseline (CBL) and demand response in the electricity market. After characterizing the general demand models, it reviews consumer baseline based on which further study the demand response...

  9. Perspective of long term demand and supply of energy and general inspection of energy policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-01-01

    Since the oil crisis, Japanese energy policy was promoted to get rid of the excess dependence on petroleum and to attain energy security, but energy situation largely changed during the past ten years, and it has become necessary to make general inspection on the long term demand and supply of energy and the energy policy. After the second oil crisis, the worldwide demand of petroleum decreased drastically due to the rapid price rise, and the base price of crude oil was lowered for the first time. It is necessary to positively endeavor to reduce energy cost with new idea. The points of the general inspection are the correspondence of the energy policy to the large structural change of energy, the most desirable system for attaining the optimum structure of energy demand and supply and the utilization of market mechanism as far as possible. This report is the results of discussion held eight times since April, 1983. The change of energy situation in Japan and abroad and the perspective, the new problems in energy countermeasures and the trend of response, the preferential and effective promotion of general energy countermeasures and so on are reported. This report shows the fundamental direction of energy countermeasures hereafter, and the concrete and special examination must be made on many remaining problems. (Kako, I.)

  10. Free energy option and its relevance to improve domestic energy demands in southern Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moses Eterigho Emetere

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to seek an energy option that would benefit the growing energy demands. Domestic energy demands in southern Nigeria had increased greatly due to failing power programs and seasonal migrations. The fossil fuel option is gradually fading away due to environmental pollution and recent dynamic cost. The renewable energy option had been celebrated with little success in the coastal area of southern Nigeria. At the moment, the renewable energy option is very expensive with little guarantee on its efficiency with time. The data set used for this study was obtained from the Davis weather installation in Covenant University. The free energy option was considered. The cost and its environmental implication for domestic use were comparatively discussed alongside other energy options — using the Life cycle cost analysis. It was found out that free energy option is more affordable and efficient for domestic use.

  11. Industrial energy demand - a micro panel data analysis. Phase 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bue Bjoerner, T.; Togeby, M.; Christensen, J.

    1998-10-01

    The matching of several existing databases - covering seven different years, two different databases from Statistics Denmark and various information from DEA - has been a challenging task. Despite a relatively automatic procedure the result is promising. More than 2,700 companies can be followed for more than three years and this means that the majority (65-85%) of the energy consumption in Danish industry is included. The number of observations that can be used in the analysis is better than expected. The constructed database has a large number of variables. It includes, e.g. energy consumption of eight major energy sources (and several minor fuels), individual prices for electricity and district heating, information about production value, value added, investments, company size and industrial sector. To this we have added general energy prices for other fuels, information on taxes, subsidies given to individual companies and energy agreements between authorities and individual companies. The combination of micro level, the many variables, the panel structure and the number of observations make the database unique compared to previous data (Danish as well as international) used to analyse industrial energy consumption. The database can be used for a variety of analyses. In the next section we will present simple models that can be used in the analyses of the data. These are single equation models of the energy consumption. In the future more general models can be applied, e.g. with representation of energy, labour and capital. (au)

  12. Demand response power system optimization in presence of renewable energy sources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dumbrava Virgil

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper optimizes the price-based demand response of a large customer in a power system with stochastic production and classical fuel-supplied power plants. The implemented method of optimization, under uncertainty, is helpful to model both the utility functions for the consumers and their technical limitations. The consumers exposed to price-based demand can reduce their cost for electricity procurement by modifying their behavior, possibly shifting their consumption during the day to periods with low electricity prices. The demand is considered elastic to electricity price if the consumer is willing and capable to buy various amounts of energy at different price levels, the demand function being represented as purchasing bidding blocks. The demand response is seen also by the scientific literature as a possible source of the needed flexibility of modern power systems, while the flexibility of conventional generation technologies is restricted by technical constraints, such as ramp rates. This paper shows how wind power generation affects short term operation of the electricity system. Fluctuations in the amount of wind power fed into the grid require, without storage capacities, compensating changes in the output of flexible generators or in the consumers’ behavior. In the presented case study, we show the minimization of the overall costs in presence of stochastic wind power production. For highlighting the variability degree of production from renewable sources, four scenarios of production were formulated, with different probabilities of occurrence. The contribution brought by the paper is represented by the optimization model for demand-response of a large customer in a power system with fossil fueled generators and intermittent renewable energy sources. The consumer can reduce the power system costs by modifying his demand. The demand function is represented as purchasing bidding blocks for the possible price forecasted realizations

  13. Reduction potentials of energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yan Xiaoyu; Crookes, Roy J.

    2009-01-01

    Rapid growth of road vehicles, private vehicles in particular, has resulted in continuing growth in China's oil demand and imports, which has been widely accepted as a major factor effecting future oil availability and prices, and a major contributor to China's GHG emission increase. This paper is intended to analyze the future trends of energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector and to assess the effectiveness of possible reduction measures. A detailed model has been developed to derive a reliable historical trend of energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector between 2000 and 2005 and to project future trends. Two scenarios have been designed to describe the future strategies relating to the development of China's road transport sector. The 'Business as Usual' scenario is used as a baseline reference scenario, in which the government is assumed to do nothing to influence the long-term trends of road transport energy demand. The 'Best Case' scenario is considered to be the most optimized case where a series of available reduction measures such as private vehicle control, fuel economy regulation, promoting diesel and gas vehicles, fuel tax and biofuel promotion, are assumed to be implemented. Energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector up to 2030 are estimated in these two scenarios. The total reduction potentials in the 'Best Case' scenario and the relative reduction potentials of each measure have been estimated

  14. Preliminary energy demand studies for Ireland: base case and high case for 1980, 1985 and 1990

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Henry, E W

    1981-01-01

    The framework of the Base Case and the High Case for 1990 for Ireland, related to the demand modules of the medium-term European Communities (EC) Energy Model, is described. The modules are: Multi-national Macre-economic Module (EURECA); National Input-Output Model (EXPLOR); and National Energy Demand Model (EDM). The final results of the EXPLOR and EDM are described; one set related to the Base Case and the other related to the High Case. The forecast or projection is termed Base Case because oil prices are assumed to increase with general price inflation, at the same rate. The other forecast is termed High Case because oil prices are assumed to increase at 5% per year more rapidly than general price inflation. The EXPLOR-EDM methodology is described. The lack of data on energy price elasticities for Ireland is noted. A comparison of the Base Case with the High Case is made. (MCW)

  15. Co-optimization of Energy and Demand-Side Reserves in Day-Ahead Electricity Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surender Reddy, S.; Abhyankar, A. R.; Bijwe, P. R.

    2015-04-01

    This paper presents a new multi-objective day-ahead market clearing (DAMC) mechanism with demand-side reserves/demand response (DR) offers, considering realistic voltage-dependent load modeling. The paper proposes objectives such as social welfare maximization (SWM) including demand-side reserves, and load served error (LSE) minimization. In this paper, energy and demand-side reserves are cleared simultaneously through co-optimization process. The paper clearly brings out the unsuitability of conventional SWM for DAMC in the presence of voltage-dependent loads, due to reduction of load served (LS). Under such circumstances multi-objective DAMC with DR offers is essential. Multi-objective Strength Pareto Evolutionary Algorithm 2+ (SPEA 2+) has been used to solve the optimization problem. The effectiveness of the proposed scheme is confirmed with results obtained from IEEE 30 bus system.

  16. A Passenger Travel Demand Model for Copenhagen

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Overgård, Christian Hansen; Jovicic, Goran

    2003-01-01

    The passenger travel model for Copenhagen is a state-of-practice nested logit model in which the sub-models - i.e. generation, distribution and mode choice models - are connected via measure of accessibility. The model includes in its structure a large set of explanatory variables at all three...... aims to provide a detailed description of the model, which can be used as a guide to the future development of similar models. Also, an application of the model in a study of road pricing in denmark is described. This gives the reader an idea of how such a policy measure can be modelled as well...

  17. Integration of Methodologies for the Evaluation of Offer Curves in Energy and Capacity Markets through Energy Efficiency and Demand Response

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Gabaldón

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The objectives of improving the efficiency, and integration, of renewable sources by 2030–2050 are complex in practice and should be linked to an increase of demand-side flexibility. The main challenges to achieving this flexibility are the lack of incentives and an adequate framework. For instance, customers’ revenue is usually low, the volatility of prices is high and there is not any practical feedback to customers from smart meters. The possibility of increasing customer revenue could reduce the uncertainty with respect to economic concerns, improving investments in efficiency, enabling technology and thus, engaging more customers in these policies. This objective could be achieved by the participation of customers in several markets. Moreover, Demand Response and Energy Efficiency can share ICT technologies but this participation needs to perform an aggregation of demand. The idea of this paper is to present some methodologies for facilitating the definition and evaluation of energy versus cost curves; and subsequently to estimate potential revenues due to Demand Response. This can be accomplished by models that estimate: demand and energy aggregation; economic opportunities and benefits; impacts on customer convenience; customer feedback and price analysis. By doing so, we would have comprehensive information that can help customers and aggregators to define energy packages and their monetary value with the objective of fostering their market participation.

  18. Carbon tax simulations using a household demand model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Braennlund, Runar; Nordstroem, Jonas

    1999-01-01

    The main objective of this paper is to analyse consumer response due to changes in energy or environmental policy. To achieve the objective we formulate and estimate an econometric model for non-durable consumer demand in Sweden that utilises micro- as well as macro-data. The microeconomic model is conditional on male and female labour supply. A 100 percent increase of the Swedish CO 2 tax will, according to the simulations, result in an increased tax payment of SEK 630 or 0.7 percent of disposable income for the households with the lowest disposable incomes. The corresponding numbers for the richest households are SEK 990 and 0.3 percent 38 refs, 10 tabs

  19. Carbon tax simulations using a household demand model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Braennlund, Runar; Nordstroem, Jonas [Umeaa Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Economics

    1999-11-01

    The main objective of this paper is to analyse consumer response due to changes in energy or environmental policy. To achieve the objective we formulate and estimate an econometric model for non-durable consumer demand in Sweden that utilises micro- as well as macro-data. The microeconomic model is conditional on male and female labour supply. A 100 percent increase of the Swedish CO{sub 2} tax will, according to the simulations, result in an increased tax payment of SEK 630 or 0.7 percent of disposable income for the households with the lowest disposable incomes. The corresponding numbers for the richest households are SEK 990 and 0.3 percent 38 refs, 10 tabs

  20. Carbon tax simulations using a household demand model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Braennlund, Runar; Nordstroem, Jonas [Umeaa Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Economics

    1999-07-01

    The main objective of this paper is to analyse consumer response due to changes in energy or environmental policy. To achieve the objective we formulate and estimate an econometric model for non-durable consumer demand in Sweden that utilises micro- as well as macro-data. The microeconomic model is conditional on male and female labour supply. A 100 percent increase of the Swedish CO{sub 2} tax will, according to the simulations, result in an increased tax payment of SEK 630 or 0.7 percent of disposable income for the households with the lowest disposable incomes. The corresponding numbers for the richest households are SEK 990 and 0.3 percent 38 refs, 10 tabs.

  1. Energy efficiency models and optimization algoruthm to enhance on-demand resource delivery in a cloud computing environment / Thusoyaone Joseph Moemi

    OpenAIRE

    Moemi, Thusoyaone Joseph

    2013-01-01

    Online hosed services are what is referred to as Cloud Computing. Access to these services is via the internet. h shifts the traditional IT resource ownership model to renting. Thus, high cost of infrastructure cannot limit the less privileged from experiencing the benefits that this new paradigm brings. Therefore, c loud computing provides flexible services to cloud user in the form o f software, platform and infrastructure as services. The goal behind cloud computing is to provi...

  2. Energy Saving by Chopping off Peak Demand Using Day Light

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashok Kumar Maitra

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available An artificial intelligent technique has been implemented in this research using real time datas to calculate how much energy can be chopped from peak load demand. The results are based on real time data that are taken from power delivering centers. These datas do reflect the present condition of power and a solution to those critical conditions during the peak period. These are done in such a way such that helps in judicious scheduling of load. The time based load scheduling has been done so as to understand the basic criteria for solving power crisis during morning peak and early evening peak. The sunray availability and percentage of load that will use day light saving (DLS technique has been taken into account in this work. The results shows that about 0.5% to 1% of load can be shedded off from the peak load period which otherwise is reduction of power. Thus it otherwise also means that an equivalent amount of energy is saved which amounts to a large saving of national money. This result is obtained on monthly and even daily basis. Thus this paper justifies DLS gives a new renewable technique to save energy.

  3. Urban climate and energy demand interaction in Northern Eurasia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasilova, E. V.; Ginzburg, A. S.; Demchenko, P. F.

    2017-11-01

    The regional and urban climate change in Northern Eurasia is one of the main challenges for sustainable development of human habitats situated in boreal and temperate areas. The half of primary energy is spent for space heating even under quite a mild European climate. Implementation of the district heating in urban areas is currently seen as one of the key conditions of sustainable development. The clear understanding of main problems of the urban climateenergy demand interaction is crucial for both small towns and megacities. The specific features of the urban energy systems in Finland, Russia and China under the changing climate conditions were studied. Regional manifestations of the climate change were examined. The climate projections were established for urban regions of the Northern Eurasia. It was shown that the climate warming is likely to continue intensively there. History and actual development trends were discussed for the urban district heating systems in Russia, China and Finland. Common challenges linked with the climate change have been identified for the considered areas. Adaptation possibilities were discussed taking into account climate-energy interactions.

  4. Energy demand with the flexible double-logarithmic functional form

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nan, G.D.; Murry, D.A.

    1992-01-01

    A flexible double-logarithmic function form is developed to meet assumptions of consumer behavior. Then annual residential and commercial data (1970-87) are applied to this functional form to examine demand for petroleum products, electricity, and natural gas in California. The traditional double log-linear functional form has shortcomings of constant elasticities. The regression equations in this study, with varied estimated elasticities, overcome some of these shortcomings. All short-run own-price elasticities are inelastic and all income elasticities are close to unity in this study. According to the short-run time-trend elasticities, consumers' fuel preference in California is electricity. The long-run income elasticities also indicate that the residential consumers will consume more electricity and natural gas as their energy budgets increase in the long run. 14 refs., 5 tabs

  5. Future role of Gulf oil in world energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eltony, M.N.

    1998-01-01

    The view that there will be a growing dependence on oil from the Gulf countries is shared by a great number of oil market analysts. This view is based on the fact that Gulf countries dominate the global oil reserves. Energy analyst argue that as the world demand for oil continues to grow driven largely by the growth in developing countries' consumption coupled with constrained non-OPEC supply, the end result will be that the call on Gulf oil will grow substantially. In summary, this paper has challenged the view of growing dependence on oil from the Gulf using available information in conjunction with reasonable and fairly plausible arguments. The aim was to point out to the GCC member counties the danger of relying on these views in shaping their economic policies and in setting their oil market strategies. They may run the ultimate risk of being left with huge oil reserves that no one wants. (orig.)

  6. A new campaign on nuclear energy to meet a demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ronze, Helene

    1997-11-01

    This EDF press report presents the activities related to an advertising campaign initiated in November 1997 in favour of nuclear power development as response to a demand of French public. A TV clip, stressing the advantages of the nuclear power for the country, reminds that the electricity in France, where 75% is of nuclear origin, is present in every daily use of domestic facilities, be it the boiler, toaster, drip coffee appliance, refrigerator, etc., which all induce pleasure and life quality. For the first time an informative discourse is given reminding that the nuclear power ensures part of France's energy independence. It is a highly-valued type of energy on market, important both for households and for competing enterprises. Besides, the EDF has conceived five substantiated press announcements, addressed to the public opinion makers, answering significant questions raised by the public. In favour of nuclear power the following rationales are presented: 1. concerning the impact of the electricity generation upon the planet warming, the fact is reminded that the nuclear and hydroelectric power in France cover 90% of its electricity demands without any gas emission which induces the Greenhouse effect; 2. due to the competition the French nuclear power sector masters the cost of kWh in France; 3. the nuclear power constitutes an positive impetus on the commercial balance as currency saving and electricity exports; 4. the nuclear wastes in France have been reduced three times in the last ten years; 5. nuclear power ensures jobs for more than 100,000 direct employees in France and for almost an equal number of indirect employees

  7. Analysis and design of a Taguchi-Grey based electricity demand predictor for energy management systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yao, Albert W.L.; Chi, S.C.

    2004-01-01

    In order to use electricity efficiently, a demand control management system is one of the effective ways to reduce energy consumption and electric bills. An electricity demand control system is used as a means to monitor and manage the usage of electricity effectively. Moreover, it is a useful tool for avoiding penalties beyond the contracted demand value of electricity with the electric power company. In this project, we developed a Taguchi-Grey based predictor to forecast the demand value of electricity on line. In a Grey prediction, the parameter settings are highly relevant to the accuracy of forecasting. A Taguchi method was employed to optimize the parameter settings for the Grey based electricity demand value predictor. Our experimental results show that the optimal parameter settings of the Grey prediction are α=0.4, five point modeling and three minute sampling time of the data acquisition system. The improved Taguchi-Grey based electricity demand predictor in conjunction with the PC based electricity demand control system is a cost effective and efficient means to manage the usage of electricity

  8. Future energy demand in Laos. Scenario alternatives for development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luukkanen, J.; Kouphokham, K.; Panula-Ontto, J. [and others

    2012-07-01

    Energy production in Laos is still dominated by traditional fuels. Fuelwood in the main source of energy and most of the energy is consumed at households for cooking. Increase in the number of cars and motorbikes is rapidly increasing the use of imported petroleum products. Electrification is one of the central targets of the Lao government. The electrification rate has increased fast in Laos and in the year 2010 over 70 % households had electricity supply. The target is to have 90 % access to electricity by the year 2020. The World Bank regards the electrification of Lao PDR to be a success story. This paper deals with the present and future energy consumption in Laos. First the historical trends of energy use in different sectors are analysed. The future scenarios are constructed using LaoLinda model. Four different future alternative development paths are analysed using the model results. The energy use data source for the analysis is from the Ministry of Energy and Mines (MEM) of Lao PDR. Economic and other data is from the Department of Statistics of Lao PDR.

  9. Towards Energy Demand Reduction in Social Housing Buildings: Envelope System Optimization Strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paula M. Esquivias

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available This work evaluates the potential for the reduction of energy demand in residential buildings by acting on the exterior envelope, both in newly constructed buildings and in the retrofitting of existing stock. It focuses on analysing social housing buildings in Mediterranean areas and on quantifying the scope of that reduction in the application of different envelope design strategies, with the purpose of prioritizing their application based on their energy efficiency. The analyses and quantifications were made by means of the generation of energy models with the TRNSYS tool for simple or combined solutions, identifying possible potentials for reduction of the energy demand from 20% to 25%, basically by acting on the windows. The case study was a newly built social housing building of a closed block type located in Seville (Spain. Its constructive techniques and the insulation level of its envelope are standardized for current buildings widespread across Mediterranean Europe.

  10. An Optimal and Distributed Demand Response Strategy for Energy Internet Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qian Liu

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This study proposes a new model of demand response management for a future smart grid that consists of smart microgrids. The microgrids have energy storage units, responsive loads, controllable distributed generation units, and renewable energy resources. They can buy energy from the utility company when the power generation in themselves cannot satisfy the load demand, and sell extra power generation to the utility company. The goal is to optimize the operation schedule of microgrids to minimize the microgrids’ payments and the utility company’s operation cost. A parallel distributed optimization algorithm based on games theory is developed to solve the optimization problem, in which microgrids only need to send their aggregated purchasing/selling energy to the utility company, thus avoid infringing its privacy. Microgrids can update their operation schedule simultaneously. A case study is implemented, and the simulation results show that the proposed method is effective and efficient.

  11. The energy demand in the British and German industrial sectors. Heterogeneity and common factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agnolucci, Paolo

    2009-01-01

    This paper estimates energy demands for the German and British industrial sectors over the 1978-2004 and the 1991-2004 samples. From time series models we can conclude that there is a considerable variation in the value of the coefficients across sectors, even though energy demands with sensible parameters can rarely be estimated. When using a panel approach, the ability of some estimators to allow for diversity across subsectors was an important factor in explaining the estimates for price elasticity. On the other hand, correlation across panel members or common factors did not markedly influence our results. With regard to the estimated parameters, our preferred choice for elasticity of economic activity and price in the longer sample is 0.52 and - 0.64. Similar values are found in the case of the shorter samples. Bearing in mind the high price elasticity, energy taxes can be considered an effective strategy for reducing energy consumption. (author)

  12. Human behaviour and energy demand : How behavioural science can be used to reduceenergy demand in the residential sector

    OpenAIRE

    Kaczmarek, Haiko

    2015-01-01

    The threat of human induced climate change is imminent. The reason is an everyincreasing demand for energy and products, producing more and more greenhousegas emissions. Everybody needs to take responsibility now. The estimations are thatwith 2% annual energy savings from residential households 12TWh and 3.3 billionmetric tonnes of CO2 can be saved per year. Greenely, a startup from KIC InnoEnergy,wants to engage residential households to change their energy behaviour athome. They combine a s...

  13. Modelling Per Capita Water Demand Change to Support System Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, M. E.; Islam, S.

    2016-12-01

    Water utilities have a number of levers to influence customer water usage. These include levers to proactively slow demand growth over time such as building and landscape codes as well as levers to decrease demands quickly in response to water stress including price increases, education campaigns, water restrictions, and incentive programs. Even actions aimed at short term reductions can result in long term water usage declines when substantial changes are made in water efficiency, as in incentives for fixture replacement or turf removal, or usage patterns such as permanent lawn watering restrictions. Demand change is therefore linked to hydrological conditions and to the effects of past management decisions - both typically included in water supply planning models. Yet, demand is typically incorporated exogenously using scenarios or endogenously using only price, though utilities also use rules and incentives issued in response to water stress and codes specifying standards for new construction to influence water usage. Explicitly including these policy levers in planning models enables concurrent testing of infrastructure and policy strategies and illuminates interactions between the two. The City of Las Vegas is used as a case study to develop and demonstrate this modeling approach. First, a statistical analysis of system data was employed to rule out alternate hypotheses of per capita demand decrease such as changes in population density and economic structure. Next, four demand sub-models were developed including one baseline model in which demand is a function of only price. The sub-models were then calibrated and tested using monthly data from 1997 to 2012. Finally, the best performing sub-model was integrated with a full supply and demand model. The results highlight the importance of both modeling water demand dynamics endogenously and taking a broader view of the variables influencing demand change.

  14. Global Energy Trends - 2016 report. Towards a Peak in Energy Demand and CO2 Emissions?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2016-06-01

    Celebrating the 20. anniversary of this yearly publication, Enerdata has newly released its annual Global Energy Trends publication for 2016. The full report presents in-depth information on the energy markets as well as upcoming trends for all energies in the G20. With over 400 premium sources, Enerdata analysts highlight major developments in 2015 concerning global demand, supply and key indicators across the globe. The main trends outlined in the report are: - Economic slowdown: the lowest growth since 2002; - Almost no growth in energy consumption; - New decrease of energy intensity; - Stabilization of CO 2 -energy emissions; - INDC targets achievement requires a double breakthrough. The Global Energy Trends Analysis also provides additional graphs about trends by energy: - Coal: most consumed energy source in G20 countries; - Oil: fall in prices to around 40-50 US$/bbl; - Oil production: USA overtake Russia and catch up with Saudi Arabia; - Gas: Stabilisation of gas demand for the 2. consecutive year; - Electricity: Stagnation of electricity consumption; - Wind Power and Solar PV: Asia engine of development. Growth in energy consumption (%/year) for G20 countries: - Second consecutive year of decline: low growth and decrease in energy intensity; - India drives the energy consumption growth; - Near stagnation in China (after a first sharp slowdown in 2014); - Economic recession in Brazil and Russia; - USA: decrease primarily linked to the industrial sector (energy efficiency + less energy-intensive industry); - Rebound in Europe: economic growth + climate effect 2015/2014

  15. Energy modelling software

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Osburn, L

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The construction industry has turned to energy modelling in order to assist them in reducing the amount of energy consumed by buildings. However, while the energy loads of buildings can be accurately modelled, energy models often under...

  16. Update of energy supply and demand 1983-2005

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-01-01

    When a return to economic growth and prosperity occurs there is excellent potential for growth in electrical demand. This electrical growth will mainly come about through increases in total energy usage and through the substitution of electricity for oil, coal and, to a lesser extent, natural gas. The successful introduction of electricity use, either directly or indirectly, into the transportation sector would open up a very large market and make a major contribution to Canada's policy of energy self sufficiency. There are also significant growth areas in the residential and industrial sectors. The major challenge in the next decade will be to maintain a viable Canadian nuclear industry, so as to meet the probable upturn in electrical generating capacity required in the 1990's and beyond and to maintain and improve Canada's share of the nuclear export market. In order to achieve this active support should be given: 1) to building CANDU units in stations primarily devoted to exporting their electrical output to the U.S.A. 2) reactor exports. 3) inititatives to promote increased electrical home heating. 4) electricity substitution in the transportation and industrial fields. Canada has ample uranium resources to cover its own needs and potential exports in the foreseeable future. Because of the great development potential in the CANDU uranium/thorium fuel cycle nuclear energy should be considered as virtually a renewable resource with the best prospects for Canada's long-term energy self sufficiency. Increased productivity, through electric-based process inprovements, and the growth of electric-based high technology industries are both vital to Canada's future economic health. Nuclear produced electricity thus has a vital role to play far into the future

  17. High-resolution stochastic integrated thermal–electrical domestic demand model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McKenna, Eoghan; Thomson, Murray

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A major new version of CREST’s demand model is presented. • Simulates electrical and thermal domestic demands at high-resolution. • Integrated structure captures appropriate time-coincidence of variables. • Suitable for low-voltage network and urban energy analyses. • Open-source development in Excel VBA freely available for download. - Abstract: This paper describes the extension of CREST’s existing electrical domestic demand model into an integrated thermal–electrical demand model. The principle novelty of the model is its integrated structure such that the timing of thermal and electrical output variables are appropriately correlated. The model has been developed primarily for low-voltage network analysis and the model’s ability to account for demand diversity is of critical importance for this application. The model, however, can also serve as a basis for modelling domestic energy demands within the broader field of urban energy systems analysis. The new model includes the previously published components associated with electrical demand and generation (appliances, lighting, and photovoltaics) and integrates these with an updated occupancy model, a solar thermal collector model, and new thermal models including a low-order building thermal model, domestic hot water consumption, thermostat and timer controls and gas boilers. The paper reviews the state-of-the-art in high-resolution domestic demand modelling, describes the model, and compares its output with three independent validation datasets. The integrated model remains an open-source development in Excel VBA and is freely available to download for users to configure and extend, or to incorporate into other models.

  18. Development of world energy requirements and ways of meeting the demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valvoda, Z.

    1977-01-01

    The development is described of the past and future energy demand and the possibility is discussed of using fossil and non-fossil energy sources in meeting the needs of population. The use of alternative energy sources is recommended to reduce the fossil fuel demand, such as solar energy, water energy, geothermal energy, tidal energy, wind energy, sea wave energy, ocean temperature gradients, photosynthesis, glacier energy and nuclear fission energy. The comparison of the possible use of the respective types of energy sources shows that only geothermal energy, tidal energy and the nuclear energy produced by thermal reactors have undergone the whole developmental stage and are industrially applicable. (Oy)

  19. Analysis of energy demand, and evaluation of energy conservation measures in urban districts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakamura, H.; Yoshida, N.

    1994-01-01

    Mitsubishi Research Institute has analyzed the energy demand of a typical Japanese city, Yokohama, as well as the distribution of fossil-energy flow, and the final consumption by sectors. It has evaluated the effectiveness of various energy conservation measures, (e.g., cogeneration, electric cars, insulation,...) in countering the global warming trend. This study defines a viable methodology which may be utilized, in the future, in examining the effectiveness of environmental policies. (TEC). 1 tab., 4 figs

  20. Future World Energy Demand and Supply: China and India and the Potential Role of Fusion Energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sheffield, John

    2005-01-01

    Massive increases in energy demand are projected for countries such as China and India over this century e.g., many 100s of megawatts of electricity (MWe) of additional electrical capacity by 2050, with more additions later, are being considered for each of them. All energy sources will be required to meet such a demand. Fortunately, while world energy demand will be increasing, the world is well endowed with a variety of energy resources. However, their distribution does not match the areas of demand and there are many environmental issues.Such geopolitical issues affect China and India and make it important for them to be able to deploy improved technologies. In this regard, South Korea is an interesting example of a country that has developed the capability to do advanced technologies - such as nuclear power plants. International collaborations in developing these technologies, such as the International Thermonuclear Reactor (ITER), may be important in all energy areas. Fusion energy is viewed as an interesting potential option in these three countries

  1. Simulated thermal energy demand and actual energy consumption in refurbished and non-refurbished buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ilie, C. A.; Visa, I.; Duta, A.

    2016-08-01

    The EU legal frame imposes the Nearly Zero Energy Buildings (nZEB) status to any new public building starting with January 1st, 2019 and for any other new building starting with 2021. Basically, nZEB represents a Low Energy Building (LEB) that covers more than half of the energy demand by using renewable energy systems installed on or close to it. Thus, two steps have to be followed in developing nZEB: (1) reaching the LEB status through state- of-the art architectural and construction solutions (for the new buildings) or through refurbishing for the already existent buildings, followed by (2) implementing renewables; in Romania, over 65% of the energy demand in a building is directly linked to heating, domestic hot water (DHW), and - in certain areas - for cooling. Thus, effort should be directed to reduce the thermal energy demand to be further covered by using clean and affordable systems: solar- thermal systems, heat pumps, biomass, etc. or their hybrid combinations. Obviously this demand is influenced by the onsite climatic profile and by the building performance. An almost worst case scenario is approached in the paper, considering a community implemented in a mountain area, with cold and long winters and mild summers (Odorheiul Secuiesc city, Harghita county, Romania). Three representative types of buildings are analysed: multi-family households (in blocks of flats), single-family houses and administrative buildings. For the first two types, old and refurbished buildings were comparatively discussed.

  2. India Energy Outlook: End Use Demand in India to 2020

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    de la Rue du Can, Stephane; McNeil, Michael; Sathaye, Jayant

    2009-03-30

    Integrated economic models have been used to project both baseline and mitigation greenhouse gas emissions scenarios at the country and the global level. Results of these scenarios are typically presented at the sectoral level such as industry, transport, and buildings without further disaggregation. Recently, a keen interest has emerged on constructing bottom up scenarios where technical energy saving potentials can be displayed in detail (IEA, 2006b; IPCC, 2007; McKinsey, 2007). Analysts interested in particular technologies and policies, require detailed information to understand specific mitigation options in relation to business-as-usual trends. However, the limit of information available for developing countries often poses a problem. In this report, we have focus on analyzing energy use in India in greater detail. Results shown for the residential and transport sectors are taken from a previous report (de la Rue du Can, 2008). A complete picture of energy use with disaggregated levels is drawn to understand how energy is used in India and to offer the possibility to put in perspective the different sources of end use energy consumption. For each sector, drivers of energy and technology are indentified. Trends are then analyzed and used to project future growth. Results of this report provide valuable inputs to the elaboration of realistic energy efficiency scenarios.

  3. A review of 'long-term energy supply and demand outlook'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoshino, Yuko; Hamagata, Sumio; Nagata, Yutaka

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we reviewed the 'Long-term Energy Supply and Demand Outlook' based on our original Japan's Economy and Energy Outlook toward 2030. 'The Long-term Energy Supply and Demand Outlook' was based on the following three basic policies: (1) Energy self-sufficiency rate in 2030 should be around 25 percent. (2) Electricity Costs in 2030 should be lower than the current level in 2013. (3) Emissions target of GHGs in 2030 should not be lower than that of EU and the US. Moreover, there were many assumptions or constraints, such as assumed economic growth rate consistent to the government's macro-economic policy and the share of renewable energy more than 20 percent. In order to satisfy the above mentioned conditions, an extraordinary energy saving should be implemented in the scenario. The assumed intensity of energy saving is as much as that after the two oil crises. We estimated the cost of that magnitude of energy saving based on our model simulation, which revealed that in order to achieve the energy saving target, the electricity price should be 80% higher than the business as usual case. In addition, we reviewed the long-term energy supply and demand scenarios of major developed countries such as the UK, the US, Italy, Germany and Australia. We found that most of the scenarios depend on a large scale of energy saving in order to achieve the GHG emissions reductions targets. The reality of those energy saving targets should be carefully re-examined under the low oil price environment. (author)

  4. The job demands-resources model of burnout

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Demerouti, E.; Nachreiner, F.; Bakker, A.B.; Schaufeli, W.B.

    2001-01-01

    The job demands - resources (JD-R) model proposes that working conditions can be categorized into 2 broad categories, job demands and job resources, that are differentially related to specific outcomes. A series of LISREL analyses using self-reports as well as observer ratings of the working

  5. GRI baseline projection of U.S. energy supply and demand to 2010. 1992 edition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holtberg, P.D.; Woods, T.J.; Lihn, M.L.; Koklauner, A.B.

    1992-04-01

    The annual GRI baseline projection is the result of a complex modeling effort that seeks to achieve an internally consistent energy supply and demand outlook across all energy sources and end-use demand sectors. The year's projection includes the adoption of a new petroleum refinery methodology, the incorporation of a new approach to determining electric utility generating capacity heat rates, the extensive update of both the residential and commercial databases and methodologies, and the continued update of the GRI Hydrocarbon Model. The report presents a series of summary tables, sectoral breakdowns of energy demand, and the natural gas supply and price trends. The appendices include a discussion of the methodology and assumptions used to prepare the 1992 edition of the projection, an analysis of the potential for higher levels of gas demand, a description of industrial and commercial cogeneration, a description of the independent power producer projection, a comparison of the 1992 edition of the projection with previous GRI projections, and a discussion of additional data used in developing the projection

  6. The energy efficiency and demand side management programs as implemented by the energy efficiency division of the department of energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anunciacion, Jesus C.

    1997-01-01

    The thrust of the Philippine energy sector. specifically the government side, is to involve the active participation of not only all the government agencies involved in energy activities but the private sector as well. This participation shall mean technical and financial participation, directly and indirectly. The Department of Energy is on the process involving the continuing update and development of a Philippine Energy Plan (PEP) which has a 30-year time scope, which will help the country monitor and determine energy supply and demand vis-a-vis the growing demands of an industrializing country like the Philippines. Among the most vital component of the PEP is the thrust to pursue national programs for energy efficiency and demand-side management. Seven energy efficiency sub-programs have been identified for implementation, with a target savings of 623 million barrels of fuel oil equivalent (MMBFOE). A cumulative net savings of 237 billion pesos shall be generated against a total investment cost of 54.5 billion pesos. The Philippine energy sector will continue to develop and implement strategies to promote the efficient utilization of energy which will cover all aspects of the energy industry. The plan is focussed on the training and education of the various sectors on the aspects involved in the implementation of energy efficiency and demand-side management elements on a more aggressive note. The implementation of technical strategies by the department will continue on a higher and more extensive level, these are: energy utilization monitoring, consultancy and engineering services, energy efficiency testing and labelling program, and demand-side management programs for each sector. In summary, the PEP, as anchored in energy efficiency and demand-side management tools, among others, will ensure a continuous energy supply at affordable prices while incorporating environmental and social considerations. (author)

  7. Uruguay Energy Supply Options Study: a Detailed Multi-Sector Integrated Energy Supply and Demand Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conzelmann, G.; Veselka, T.

    1997-01-01

    Uruguay is in the middle of making critical decisions affecting the design of its future energy supply system.Momentum for change is expected to come from several directions including recent and foreseeable upgrades and modifications to energy conversion facilities, the importation of natural gas from Argentina, the possibility for a stronger interconnection of regional electricity systems, the country s membership in MERCOSUR, and the potential for energy sector reforms by the Government of Uruguay.The objective of this study is to analyze the effects of several fuel diversification strategies on Uruguay s energy supply system.The analysis pays special attention to fuel substitution trends due to potential imports of natural gas via a gas pipeline from Argentina and increasing electricity ties with neighboring countries.The Government of Uruguay contracted Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) to study several energy development scenario ns with the support of several Uruguayan Institutions.Specifically, ANL was asked to conduct a detailed energy supply and demand analysis, develop energy demand projections based on an analysis of past energy demand patterns with support from local institutions, evaluate the effects of potential natural gas imports and electricity exchanges, and determine the market penetration of natural gas under various scenarios

  8. Effects of Seismological and Soil Parameters on Earthquake Energy demand in Level Ground Sand Deposits

    Science.gov (United States)

    nabili, sara; shahbazi majd, nafiseh

    2013-04-01

    Liquefaction has been a source of major damages during severe earthquakes. To evaluate this phenomenon there are several stress, strain and energy based approaches. Use of the energy method has been more focused by researchers due to its advantages with respect to other approaches. The use of the energy concept to define the liquefaction potential is validated through laboratory element and centrifuge tests as well as field studies. This approach is based on the hypothesis that pore pressure buildup is directly related to the dissipated energy in sands which is the accumulated areas between the stress-strain loops. Numerous investigations were performed to find a relationship which correlates the dissipated energy to the soil parameters, but there are not sufficient studies to relate this dissipated energy, known as demand energy, concurrently, to the seismological and the soil parameters. The aim of this paper is to investigate the dependency of the demand energy in sands to seismological and the soil parameters. To perform this task, an effective stress analysis has been executed using FLAC finite difference program. Finn model, which is a built-in constitutive model implemented in FLAC program, was utilized. Since an important stage to predict the liquefaction is the prediction of excess pore water pressure at a given point, a simple numerical framework is presented to assess its generation during a cyclic loading in a given centrifuge test. According to the results, predicted excess pore water pressures did not closely match to the measured excess pore water pressure values in the centrifuge test but they can be used in the numerical assessment of excess pore water pressure with an acceptable degree of preciseness. Subsequently, the centrifuge model was reanalyzed using several real earthquake acceleration records with different seismological parameters such as earthquake magnitude and Hypocentral distance. The accumulated energies (demand energy) dissipated in

  9. Energy management in microgrid based on the multi objective stochastic programming incorporating portable renewable energy resource as demand response option

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tabar, Vahid Sohrabi; Jirdehi, Mehdi Ahmadi; Hemmati, Reza

    2017-01-01

    Renewable energy resources are often known as cost-effective and lucrative resources and have been widely developed due to environmental-economic issues. Renewable energy utilization even in small scale (e.g., microgrid networks) has attracted significant attention. Energy management in microgrid can be carried out based on the generating side management or demand side management. In this paper, portable renewable energy resource are modeled and included in microgrid energy management as a demand response option. Utilizing such resources could supply the load when microgrid cannot serve the demand. This paper addresses energy management and scheduling in microgrid including thermal and electrical loads, renewable energy sources (solar and wind), CHP, conventional energy sources (boiler and micro turbine), energy storage systems (thermal and electrical ones), and portable renewable energy resource (PRER). Operational cost of microgrid and air pollution are considered as objective functions. Uncertainties related to the parameters are incorporated to make a stochastic programming. The proposed problem is expressed as a constrained, multi-objective, linear, and mixed-integer programing. Augmented Epsilon-constraint method is used to solve the problem. Final results and calculations are achieved using GAMS24.1.3/CPLEX12.5.1. Simulation results demonstrate the viability and effectiveness of the proposed method in microgrid energy management. - Highlights: • Introducing portable renewable energy resource (PRER) and considering effect of them. • Considering reserve margin and sensitivity analysis for validate robustness. • Multi objective and stochastic management with considering various loads and sources. • Using augmented Epsilon-constraint method to solve multi objective program. • Highly decreasing total cost and pollution with PRER in stochastic state.

  10. Modeling water demand when households have multiple sources of water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coulibaly, Lassina; Jakus, Paul M.; Keith, John E.

    2014-07-01

    A significant portion of the world's population lives in areas where public water delivery systems are unreliable and/or deliver poor quality water. In response, people have developed important alternatives to publicly supplied water. To date, most water demand research has been based on single-equation models for a single source of water, with very few studies that have examined water demand from two sources of water (where all nonpublic system water sources have been aggregated into a single demand). This modeling approach leads to two outcomes. First, the demand models do not capture the full range of alternatives, so the true economic relationship among the alternatives is obscured. Second, and more seriously, economic theory predicts that demand for a good becomes more price-elastic as the number of close substitutes increases. If researchers artificially limit the number of alternatives studied to something less than the true number, the price elasticity estimate may be biased downward. This paper examines water demand in a region with near universal access to piped water, but where system reliability and quality is such that many alternative sources of water exist. In extending the demand analysis to four sources of water, we are able to (i) demonstrate why households choose the water sources they do, (ii) provide a richer description of the demand relationships among sources, and (iii) calculate own-price elasticity estimates that are more elastic than those generally found in the literature.

  11. Demand-Side Energy Management Based on Nonconvex Optimization in Smart Grid

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kai Ma

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Demand-side energy management is used for regulating the consumers’ energy usage in smart grid. With the guidance of the grid’s price policy, the consumers can change their energy consumption in response. The objective of this study is jointly optimizing the load status and electric supply, in order to make a tradeoff between the electric cost and the thermal comfort. The problem is formulated into a nonconvex optimization model. The multiplier method is used to solve the constrained optimization, and the objective function is transformed to the augmented Lagrangian function without constraints. Hence, the Powell direction acceleration method with advance and retreat is applied to solve the unconstrained optimization. Numerical results show that the proposed algorithm can achieve the balance between the electric supply and demand, and the optimization variables converge to the optimum.

  12. 75 FR 54063 - Demand Response Compensation in Organized Wholesale Energy Markets; Technical Conference

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-03

    ... FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION 18 CFR Part 35 [Docket No. RM10-17-000] Demand Response... for determining when to compensate demand response providers and the allocation of costs associated with demand response. DATES: The technical conference will be held at the Federal Energy Regulatory...

  13. Exchanging and Storing Energy. Reducing Energy Demand through Heat Exchange between Functions and Temporary Storage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sillem, E.

    2011-06-15

    As typical office buildings from the nineties have large heating and cooling installations to provide heat or cold wherever and whenever needed, more recent office buildings have almost no demand for heating due to high internal heat loads caused by people, lighting and office appliances and because of the great thermal qualities of the contemporary building envelope. However, these buildings still have vast cooling units to cool down servers and other energy consuming installations. At the same time other functions such as dwellings, swimming pools, sporting facilities, archives and museums still need to be heated most of the year. In the current building market there is an increasing demand for mixed-use buildings or so called hybrid buildings. The Science Business Centre is no different and houses a conference centre, offices, a museum, archives, an exhibition space and a restaurant. From the initial program brief it seemed that the building will simultaneously house functions that need cooling most of the year and functions that will need to be heated the majority of the year. Can this building be equipped with a 'micro heating and cooling network' and where necessary temporarily store energy? With this idea a research proposal was formulated. How can the demand for heating and cooling of the Science Business Centre be reduced by using energy exchange between different kinds of functions and by temporarily storing energy? In conclusion the research led to: four optimized installation concepts; short term energy storage in pavilion concept and museum; energy exchange between the restaurant and archives; energy exchange between the server space and the offices; the majority of heat and cold will be extracted from the soil (long term energy storage); the access heat will be generated by the energy roof; PV cells from the energy roof power all climate installations; a total energy plan for the Science Business Centre; a systematic approach for exchanging

  14. Evaluating demand side measures in simulation models for the power market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wolfgang, Ove; Doorman, Gerard

    2011-01-01

    Increased energy efficiency is one of the pillars for reducing CO 2 emissions. However, in models for the electricity market like unit commitment and dispatch models, increased efficiency of demand results in a paradoxical apparent reduction of the total economic surplus. The reason is that these are partial models for the electricity market, which do not take into account the effect of the changes in other markets. This paper shows how the calculation of the consumer surplus in the electricity market should be corrected to take into account the effect in other markets. In different cases we study shifts in the demand curve that are caused by increased energy efficiency, reduced cost for substitutes to electricity and real-time monitoring of demand, and we derive the necessary correction. The correction can easily be included in existing simulation models, and makes it possible to assess the effect of changes in demand on economic surplus. (author)

  15. Energy demands during a judo match and recovery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Degoutte, F; Jouanel, P; Filaire, E

    2003-06-01

    To assess energy demand during a judo match and the kinetics of recovery by measuring the metabolites of the oxypurine cascade, lipolytic activity, and glycolytic pathway. Venous blood samples were taken from 16 national judoists (mean (SEM) age 18.4 (1.6) years), before (T(1)) and three minutes (T(2)), one hour (T(3)), and 24 hours (T(4)) after a match. A seven day diet record was used to evaluate nutrient intake. Nutrient analysis indicated that these athletes followed a low carbohydrate diet. Plasma lactate concentration had increased to 12.3 (1.8) mmol/l at the end of the match. An increase in the levels of extracellular markers of muscle adenine nucleotide catabolism, urea, and creatinine was observed at T(2), while uric acid levels remained unchanged. High concentrations of urea persisted for 24 hours during the recovery period. Ammonia, hypoxanthine, xanthine, and creatinine returned to control levels within the 24 hour recovery period. Uric acid concentrations rose from T(3) and had not returned to baseline 24 hours after the match. The levels of triglycerides, glycerol, and free fatty acids had increased significantly (p<0.05) after the match (T(2)) but returned to baseline values within 24 hours. Concentrations of high density lipoprotein cholesterol and total cholesterol were significantly increased after the match. These results show that a judo match induces both protein and lipid metabolism. Carbohydrate availability, training adaptation, and metabolic stress may explain the requirement for these types of metabolism.

  16. An EPQ Model with Increasing Demand and Demand Dependent Production Rate under Trade Credit Financing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juanjuan QIN

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates an EPQ model with the increasing demand and demand dependent production rate involving the trade credit financing policy, which is seldom reported in the literatures. The model considers the manufacturer was offered by the supplier a delayed payment time. It is assumed that the demand is a linear increasing function of the time and the production rate is proportional to the demand. That is, the production rate is also a linear function of time. This study attempts to offer a best policy for the replenishment cycle and the order quantity for the manufacturer to maximum its profit per cycle. First, the inventory model is developed under the above situation. Second, some useful theoretical results have been derived to characterize the optimal solutions for the inventory system. The Algorithm is proposed to obtain the optimal solutions of the manufacturer. Finally, the numerical examples are carried out to illustrate the theorems, and the sensitivity analysis of the optimal solutions with respect to the parameters of the inventory system is performed. Some important management insights are obtained based on the analysis.

  17. Integrated design and evaluation of biomass energy system taking into consideration demand side characteristics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ren, Hongbo; Zhou, Weisheng; Nakagami, Ken'ichi; Gao, Weijun

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, a linear programming model has been developed for the design and evaluation of biomass energy system, while taking into consideration demand side characteristics. The objective function to be minimized is the total annual cost of the energy system for a given customer equipped with a biomass combined cooling, heating and power (CCHP) plant, as well as a backup boiler fueled by city gas. The results obtained from the implementation of the model demonstrate the optimal system capacities that customers could employ given their electrical and thermal demands. As an illustrative example, an investigation addresses the optimal biomass CCHP system for a residential area located in Kitakyushu Science and Research Park, Japan. In addition, sensitivity analyses have been elaborated in order to show how the optimal solutions would vary due to changes of some key parameters including electricity and city gas tariffs, biogas price, electricity buy-back price, as well as carbon tax rate. (author)

  18. Joint Real-Time Energy and Demand-Response Management using a Hybrid Coalitional-Noncooperative Game

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    He, Fulin; Gu, Yi; Hao, Jun; Zhang, Jun Jason; Wei, Jiaolong; Zhang, Yingchen

    2015-11-11

    In order to model the interactions among utility companies, building demands and renewable energy generators (REGs), a hybrid coalitional-noncooperative game framework has been proposed. We formulate a dynamic non-cooperative game to study the energy dispatch within multiple utility companies, while we take a coalitional perspective on REGs and buildings demands through a hedonic coalition formation game approach. In this case, building demands request different power supply from REGs, then the building demands can be organized into an ultimate coalition structure through a distributed hedonic shift algorithm. At the same time, utility companies can also obtain a stable power generation profile. In addition, the interactive progress among the utility companies and building demands which cannot be supplied by REGs is implemented by distributed game theoretic algorithms. Numerical results illustrate that the proposed hybrid coalitional-noncooperative game scheme reduces the cost of both building demands and utility companies compared with the initial scene.

  19. Robust total energy demand estimation with a hybrid Variable Neighborhood Search – Extreme Learning Machine algorithm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sánchez-Oro, J.; Duarte, A.; Salcedo-Sanz, S.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • The total energy demand in Spain is estimated with a Variable Neighborhood algorithm. • Socio-economic variables are used, and one year ahead prediction horizon is considered. • Improvement of the prediction with an Extreme Learning Machine network is considered. • Experiments are carried out in real data for the case of Spain. - Abstract: Energy demand prediction is an important problem whose solution is evaluated by policy makers in order to take key decisions affecting the economy of a country. A number of previous approaches to improve the quality of this estimation have been proposed in the last decade, the majority of them applying different machine learning techniques. In this paper, the performance of a robust hybrid approach, composed of a Variable Neighborhood Search algorithm and a new class of neural network called Extreme Learning Machine, is discussed. The Variable Neighborhood Search algorithm is focused on obtaining the most relevant features among the set of initial ones, by including an exponential prediction model. While previous approaches consider that the number of macroeconomic variables used for prediction is a parameter of the algorithm (i.e., it is fixed a priori), the proposed Variable Neighborhood Search method optimizes both: the number of variables and the best ones. After this first step of feature selection, an Extreme Learning Machine network is applied to obtain the final energy demand prediction. Experiments in a real case of energy demand estimation in Spain show the excellent performance of the proposed approach. In particular, the whole method obtains an estimation of the energy demand with an error lower than 2%, even when considering the crisis years, which are a real challenge.

  20. Flexibility and leadership advantages in a model with uncertain demand

    OpenAIRE

    Ferreira, Fernanda A.; Ferreira, Flávio; Pinto, Alberto A.

    2007-01-01

    We consider a differentiated Stackelberg model with demand uncertainty only for the first mover. We study the advantages of flexibility over leadership as the degree of the differentiation of the goods changes.

  1. Sectoral shift in industrial natural gas demand: A comparison with other energy types

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boyd, G.; Fisher, R.; Hanson, D.; Ross, M.

    1989-01-01

    It has been recognized in a variety of studies that energy demand by industry has been effected not only by the changing energy intensity of the various sectors of industry, but also by the composition of industrial sector. A previous study group of the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF-8) found that sectoral shift, i.e., the relative decline in the energy intensive sectors of industry, has contributed at least one third of the decline in aggregate manufacturing energy intensity since the early 1970s. The specific types of energy use may also be important, however. For example, the effect of shifts in production by electricity intensive sectors has been shown to be somewhat different than that for fossil fuel

  2. Top-down workforce demand extrapolation based on an EC energy road-map scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roelofs, F.; Von Estorff, U.

    2014-01-01

    The EHRO-N team of JRC-IET provides the EC with essential data related to supply and demand for nuclear experts based on bottom-up information from the nuclear industry. The current paper deals with an alternative approach to derive figures for the demand side information of the nuclear workforce. Complementary to the bottom-up approach, a top-down modelling approach extrapolation of an EC Energy road-map nuclear energy demand scenario is followed here in addition to the survey information. In this top-down modelling approach, the number of nuclear power plants that are in operation and under construction is derived as a function of time from 2010 up to 2050 assuming that the current reactor park will be replaced by generic third generation reactors of 1400 MWe or 1000 MWe. Depending on the size of new build reactors, the analysis shows the number of new reactors required to fulfil the demand for nuclear energy. Based on workforce models for operation and construction of nuclear power plants, the model allows an extrapolation of these respective work-forces. Using the nuclear skills pyramid, the total workforce employed at a plant is broken down in a nuclear (experts), nuclearized, and nuclear aware workforce. With retirement profiles for nuclear power plants derived from the bottom-up EHRO-N survey, the replacement of the current workforce is taken into account. The peak of the new workforce (partly replacing the retiring workforce and additionally keeping up with the growing total workforce demand) for nuclear experts and nuclearized employees is to be expected at the end of the considered period (2050). However, the peak workforce for nuclear aware employees is to be expected around 2020. When comparing to historical data for the nuclear capacity being installed at the same time in Europe, it is clear that the expected future capacity to be installed at the same time in Europe is significantly lower (factor of 2) than in the early 1980's. However, it should

  3. An interim report on the outlook of long-term energy supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1982-01-01

    An interim report was presented by the supply/demand committee in Over-all Energy Council concerning the energy demand and supply outlook for fiscal 1990 as compared with fiscal 1980. The background for deciding the outlook of energy supply and demand and basic ideas for energy policy, and the outlook for energy supply and demand are outlined. The outlook was prepared, assuming yearly economic growth of about 5 % in 1980s and the utmost efforts by people in energy situation. The energy situation both domestic and abroad is largely changing, including energy saving efforts and petroleum price. The aggregate energy demand for fiscal 1990 was put at about 590 million kl in terms of crude oil. Then, concerning nuclear power generation, the power supply by nuclear energy in fiscal 1990 was estimated at 46 million kw accounting for 11.3 % of the total power supply. (Mori, K.)

  4. Energy demand analysis via small scale hydroponic systems in suburban areas - An integrated energy-food nexus solution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xydis, George A; Liaros, Stelios; Botsis, Konstantinos

    2017-09-01

    The study is a qualitative approach and looks into new ways for the effective energy management of a wind farm (WF) operation in a suburban or near-urban environment in order the generated electricity to be utilised for hydroponic farming purposes as well. Since soilless hydroponic indoor systems gain more and more attention one basic goal, among others, is to take advantage of this not typical electricity demand and by managing it, offering to the grid a less fluctuating electricity generation signal. In this paper, a hybrid business model is presented where the Distributed Energy Resources (DER) producer is participating in the electricity markets under competitive processes (spot market, real-time markets etc.) and at the same time acts as a retailer offering - based on the demand - to the hydroponic units for their mass deployment in an area, putting forward an integrated energy-food nexus approach. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Analysis on Price Elasticity of Energy Demand in East Asia: Empirical Evidence and Policy Implications for ASEAN and East Asia

    OpenAIRE

    Han PHOUMIN; Shigeru KIMURA

    2014-01-01

    This study uses time series data of selected ASEAN and East Asia countries to investigate the patterns of price and income elasticity of energy demand. Applying a dynamic log-linear energy demand model, both short-run and long-run price and income elasticities were estimated by country. The study uses three types of dependent variable “energy demand” such as total primary energy consumption (TPES), total final energy consumption (TFEC) and total final oil consumption (TFOC) to regress on its ...

  6. Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting: A Review of Recent Research

    OpenAIRE

    Song, H; Li, G

    2008-01-01

    This paper reviews the published studies on tourism demand modelling and forecasting since 2000. One of the key findings of this review is that the methods used in analysing and forecasting the demand for tourism have been more diverse than those identified by other review articles. In addition to the most popular time-series and econometric models, a number of new techniques have emerged in the literature. However, as far as the forecasting accuracy is concerned, the study shows that there i...

  7. Supply and Demand Model for the Malaysian Cocoa Market

    OpenAIRE

    Abdel Hameed, Amna Awad; Hasanov, Akram; Idris, Nurjihan; Abdullah, Amin Mahir; Mohamed Arshad, Fatimah; Shamsudin, Mad Nasir

    2009-01-01

    This paper investigates a system of supply, demand, and price equations for Malaysian cocoa using annual data over the period 1975-2008. Theoretically, in supply and demand models, the price variable is treated as endogenous. However, Hausman specification test result indicates that there is no simultaneity problem in the model. Thus, we estimate the system of equations utilizing the Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) estimation technique which might be considered a more effi...