Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2007

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2007-07-01

How much oil will the world consume in 2012? What role will OPEC play in global oil production? Will biofuels become an important part of the oil market? How will the refinery sector cope? The International Energy Agency (IEA) Medium-Term Oil Market Report tackles these questions, adopting a perspective that goes beyond the traditional short-term market analysis provided in the IEA Oil Market Report. Drawing on current futures curves and the investment threshold for upstream projects, the Medium-Term Oil Market Report analyses how global demand and supply balances may develop. By assessing all firmly planned upstream and downstream projects worldwide, this report forecasts supply and demand potential for crude and petroleum products over the next five years. The results provide an invaluable insight into vital issues such as surplus production capacity and product supply. An essential report for all policymakers, market analysts, energy experts and anyone interested in understanding and following oil market trends, the Medium-Term Oil Market Report is a further element of the strong commitment of the IEA to improving and expanding the quality, timeliness and accuracy of energy data and analysis.

The functioning of the oil market during an oil crisis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hughes, G.; Siner, M.; Tijdhof, B.

2003-01-01

The title study regarding the functioning of the oil market during an oil crisis is carried out with particular reference to the strategic behaviour of oil companies. Section 2 identifies major oil supply disruptions since 1951 and describes some important changes in the market that have occurred in recent decades; Section 3 reviews the economic literature of the functioning of oil markets during disruptions and models of oil supply disruptions; Section 4 examines the response of oil markets to recent supply disruptions; Section 5 examines the incentives and scope for strategic behaviour; Section 6 considers the implications of our analysis for the design of policy responses to oil supply disruptions; Appendix A describes the background to the four recent oil supply disruptions; Appendix B discusses the relationship between spot and futures prices for a storable commodity; and Appendix C is the bibliography

Reference data on world oil markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-01-01

This paper makes a status of the 2004 activity of worldwide oil markets: oil demand, oil supplies (OPEC and non-OPEC countries, unused production capacities), formation of oil prices (role of stockpiles, role of terminal markets, impact of dollar rate), economic data: OPEC objectives, market vision, volatility of prices, supply and demand. (J.S.)

The oil market towards 2030 - can OPEC combine high oil price with high market share

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aune, Finn Roar; Glomsroed, Solveig; Lindholt, Lars; Rosendahl, Knut Einar

2005-01-01

In this paper we examine within a partial equilibrium model for the oil market whether OPEC can combine high oil prices with a high market share. The oil market model explicitly accounts for reserves, development and production in 4 field categories across 13 regions. Oil companies may invest in new field development or alternatively on improved oil recovery in the decline phase of fields in production. Non-OPEC production is profit-driven, whereas OPEC meets the residual call for OPEC oil at a pre-specified oil price, while maintaining a surplus capacity. The model is run over a range of exogenous oil prices from 15 to 60 $ per barrel. Sustained high oil prices stimulate Non-OPEC production, but its remaining reserves gradually diminish despite new discoveries. Oil demand is only slightly affected by higher prices. Thus, OPEC is able to keep and eventually increase its current market share beyond 2010 even with oil prices around $30 per barrel. In fact, the model simulations indicate that an oil price around $40 is profitable for OPEC, even in the long term. Sensitivity analyses show that the most profitable price level for OPEC is generally above $35 per barrel. Even with several factors working jointly in OPEC's disfavour, the oil price seems to stick to the 30 $ level. Thus, for OPEC there is a trade-off between high prices and high market share in the short to medium term, but not in the long term. For OECD countries, on the other hand, there is a clear trade-off between low oil prices and low import dependence. (Author)

Challenge of the oil market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jaidah, A M

1981-11-01

The oil market is experiencing a different environment in 1981 as demand for OPEC oil fades while customers run down their inventories. The oil-producing countries face a new challenge, but the need of consuming countries for secure oil supplies and the need of producing countries to broaden their economies and reduce dependence on a depleting resource continue. Two episodes 1973 to 1975 and late 1978 to the present, illustrate the current market situation. The impact of these episodes is the basis for recommended long-run goals that go beyond market management to the real challenge of converting oil resources into the real assets of economic development. (DCK)

False security: the effects of long-term oil supply disruptions in a slack oil market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kah, M; Kruvant, W J

1984-01-01

The authors contention that the US should continue to be concerned about energy emergency preparedness, in the event of a long-term disruption of oil supplies, despite current slack economic conditions on the international market is outlined. One quarter of the world's total supply still comes from politically volatile areas of North Africa and the Middle East, and although oil imports have fallen off, the US is still vulnerable.

Oil price stability and free markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamani, A.Z.

1992-01-01

The oil industry, like any capital-intensive industry with long supply lead times, is prone to price instability. Free markets in oil reflect this inherent instability, for prices are efficient signallers of imbalances between supply and demand. Free markets are desirable in principle, but entirely free oil markets are unstable. Volatile oil prices are undesirable. This article advocates trading some market freedom for more price stability, since such a trade off will be beneficial to the world as a whole. (author)

Review and Outlook of China's Oil Market

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Gong Jinshuang

2006-01-01

@@ Major features of China's oil market in 2005 China's oil market is changing under the influence of domestic economy and the international oil market, witnessing different characteristics from time to time.

Global Trends and Development Prospects for Oil and the Oil Products Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria Dorozhkina

2006-03-01

Full Text Available This article discusses the important issue of the development of the global market of oil and oil products. It offers an overview of how this market was formed and its current status, classification, location and potential of countries in the oil and oil processing business. It analyzes the Ukrainian oil products market. The article discusses the shortcomings and strategic areas for the development of Ukraine’s oil transport system. It presents an optimum method for creating integration groups in order to develop the oil processing business in Ukraine for the future. The article considers the main trends and outlines development prospects for the global oil and oil products market.

Charting the new world order: proceedings of the 15. CERI international oil and gas markets conference

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1996-10-01

The 15th International Oil and Gas Markets Conference, organized by the Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) and held in Calgary, AB, provided a wide variety of opportunities for discussion of the global oil and gas market outlook, international oil and gas market strategies and corporate planning in the new world order, competition for investments, the re-emergence of the geopolitics of energy, energy in the Americas, international gas market strategies, and the financing of Canadian international operations. More than 100 delegates from around the world attended the conference to hear some 20 presentations. refs., tabs., figs

Linkages between the markets for crude oil and the markets for refined products

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Didziulis, V.S.

1990-01-01

To understand the crude oil price determination process it is necessary to extend the analysis beyond the markets for petroleum. Crude oil prices are determined in two closely related markets: the markets for crude oil and the markets for refined products. An econometric-linear programming model was developed to capture the linkages between the markets for crude oil and refined products. In the LP refiners maximize profits given crude oil supplies, refining capacities, and prices of refined products. The objective function is profit maximization net of crude oil prices. The shadow price on crude oil gives the netback price. Refined product prices are obtained from the econometric models. The model covers the free world divided in five regions. The model is used to analyze the impacts on the markets of policies that affect crude oil supplies, the demands for refined products, and the refining industry. For each scenario analyzed the demand for crude oil is derived from the equilibrium conditions in the markets for products. The demand curve is confronted with a supply curve which maximizes revenues providing an equilibrium solution for both crude oil and product markets. The model also captures crude oil price differentials by quality. The results show that the demands for crude oil are different across regions due to the structure of the refining industries and the characteristics of the demands for refined products. Changes in the demands for products have a larger impact on the markets than changes in the refining industry. Since markets for refined products and crude oil are interrelated they can't be analyzed individually if an accurate and complete assessment of a policy is to be made. Changes in only one product market in one region affect the other product markets and the prices of crude oil

Growing markets to sustain oil sands development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wise, T.H.

2003-01-01

The utilization of Alberta bitumen for the clean fuels market depends on upgrading, transportation, and refining processes. Forecasts show that oil sands production, which includes synthetic crude oil (SCO), will surpass declining conventional production in Western Canada. Several issues pose a challenge to the oil sands processing industry. The producers' market is affected by crude oil prices, market expansion options, diluent availability/cost, supply cost competitiveness, and regional processing. The common market issues include light/heavy crude prices, oil sands crude qualities, prices of oil sands crudes, pipeline infrastructure, and competitive supplies. The issues facing the refiners are: refining margins, security of crude supply, refined product quality, and competitive product supply. A brief review of markets for Canadian crude oil, including synthetic crude, was provided. The share of the Midwest market by Alberta must be retained and increased. The market expansion options were reviewed for both downstream (refining) and upstream (upgrading) operations. To reach more distant markets such as Southern Midwest, Washington, and California, new pipeline capacity would be required. The market is nearly saturated for Canada's heavy oil supply. More upgrading will be required as bitumen production increases. Market growth is still possible for Canada's SCO but according to forecasts, the market could also become saturated. To increase demand and allow supplies to grow, SCO prices may fall below light crude prices. It was noted that a balance must be achieved in order for producers to increase production and for refiner/upgraders to expand their conversion capacity. tabs., figs

Market potential for Canadian crude oil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heath, M.; Fisher, L.; Golosinski, D.; Luthin, A.; Gill, L.; Raggett, C.

1997-01-01

Future key markets for Canadian crude were evaluated, and probable flow volumes and prices were identified. Key concerns of market participants such as pricing, alternative crude sources, pipeline tariffs and crude quality, were examined. An overview of the competition faced by Canadian crude supply in global markets was presented. World crude oil supply and demand was discussed. US and Canadian crude oil supply (2000 to 2010), refinery demand for light and heavy crudes, existing future crude oil and refined product pipeline infrastructure, and pricing implications of changing crude oil flows were analyzed. The general conclusion was that the US market will continue to provide growing markets for Canadian crude oil, and that the Canadian supply to fulfill increased export requirements will be available due to the combined effects of increasing heavy crude supply, growing production from the east coast offshore, and recent and ongoing pipeline expansions and additions. 20 refs., 64 tabs., 42 figs

Alberta oil sands crudes : upgrading and marketing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ashar, M.

2008-01-01

Open pit mining and in situ techniques, such as steam stimulation, are used to recover Alberta's bitumen and heavy oil resources, which have higher viscosities than conventional hydrocarbons. The bitumen is typically upgraded to synthetic crude oil (SCO). In the simplest processing scheme, the bitumen is blended with diluent for ease in pipeline transport and then processed at refineries with upgrading facilities. The bitumen is also upgraded to light SCO at world-scale upgraders in Alberta. The SCO is then processed at refineries in downstream markets. The 2 categories of upgrading, notably primary and secondary upgrading, were described in this article along with technology options for both categories. Slurry hydrocracking is regarded as the most interesting emerging residual fuel upgrading technology. It combines special catalyst mixes with the latest slurry reactor designs as well as innovative catalyst capture and recycle schemes to produce very high conversions and potentially superior upgrading economics. The increase in volume and rate of SCO from Alberta provides refiners in the oil sands marketing sector an unprecedented choice of opportunities to improve profitability. Key trends indicate that production will increase substantially from 2008 to 2030. 5 figs

Alberta oil sands crudes : upgrading and marketing

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ashar, M. [Suncor Energy, Fort McMurray, AB (Canada)

2008-05-15

Open pit mining and in situ techniques, such as steam stimulation, are used to recover Alberta's bitumen and heavy oil resources, which have higher viscosities than conventional hydrocarbons. The bitumen is typically upgraded to synthetic crude oil (SCO). In the simplest processing scheme, the bitumen is blended with diluent for ease in pipeline transport and then processed at refineries with upgrading facilities. The bitumen is also upgraded to light SCO at world-scale upgraders in Alberta. The SCO is then processed at refineries in downstream markets. The 2 categories of upgrading, notably primary and secondary upgrading, were described in this article along with technology options for both categories. Slurry hydrocracking is regarded as the most interesting emerging residual fuel upgrading technology. It combines special catalyst mixes with the latest slurry reactor designs as well as innovative catalyst capture and recycle schemes to produce very high conversions and potentially superior upgrading economics. The increase in volume and rate of SCO from Alberta provides refiners in the oil sands marketing sector an unprecedented choice of opportunities to improve profitability. Key trends indicate that production will increase substantially from 2008 to 2030. 5 figs.

Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) 2008

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2008-07-15

Why have oil prices hit US$140 per barrel? How strong will oil demand be in the upcoming years? Will supply of crude oil, natural gas liquids and biofuels be sufficient to meet this future demand? And, no less crucially, what investments in refining capacity and technology can we expect and will these help ease some of the imbalance in strained oil product markets? The Medium-Term Oil Market Report (now in its third year) published by the International Energy Agency (IEA) has become a new benchmark, complementing the short-term market analysis provided in the IEA Oil Market Report. This year's edition reappraises all upstream and downstream projects worldwide, setting them against a revised demand forecast and expanding the time horizon to 2013. Special features this year include in-depth analyses of price formation, transport trends, non-OECD economies, non-OPEC production decline, project slippage, key crude export pipeline developments and a stronger emphasis on product supply bottlenecks. An essential report for all policy makers, market analysts, energy experts and anyone interested in understanding and following oil market trends, the Medium-Term Oil Market Report is a further element of the strong commitment of the IEA to improving and expanding the quality, timeliness and accuracy of energy data and analysis.

Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) 2008

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2008-07-15

Why have oil prices hit US$140 per barrel? How strong will oil demand be in the upcoming years? Will supply of crude oil, natural gas liquids and biofuels be sufficient to meet this future demand? And, no less crucially, what investments in refining capacity and technology can we expect and will these help ease some of the imbalance in strained oil product markets? The Medium-Term Oil Market Report (now in its third year) published by the International Energy Agency (IEA) has become a new benchmark, complementing the short-term market analysis provided in the IEA Oil Market Report. This year's edition reappraises all upstream and downstream projects worldwide, setting them against a revised demand forecast and expanding the time horizon to 2013. Special features this year include in-depth analyses of price formation, transport trends, non-OECD economies, non-OPEC production decline, project slippage, key crude export pipeline developments and a stronger emphasis on product supply bottlenecks. An essential report for all policy makers, market analysts, energy experts and anyone interested in understanding and following oil market trends, the Medium-Term Oil Market Report is a further element of the strong commitment of the IEA to improving and expanding the quality, timeliness and accuracy of energy data and analysis.

Canada's oil sands, opportunities and challenges to 2015 : an energy market assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-05-01

The National Energy Board monitors the supply of all energy commodities in Canada along with the demand for Canadian energy commodities in domestic and export markets. This report provides an assessment of the current state of the oil sands industry and the potential for growth. It also identifies the major issues and challenges associated with the development of Canada's oil sands, one of the world's largest hydrocarbon resources. Initial production of Canada's oil sands began in 1967. The resource has become more economic to develop in recent years due to higher energy prices and new technologies. The economic potential of Canada's oil sands has been recognized internationally. Canadian oil sands production in 2004 will surpass 160,000 cubic metres per day. By 2015, production is expected to more than double to meet market demands. The challenges facing the industry include higher natural gas prices, capital cost overruns and environmental impacts. The major factors that affect the rate of oil sands development include natural gas supply, energy demand, oil and gas pricing, markets and pipelines, environmental considerations, emerging technologies, geopolitical issues, and labour. This report includes key findings for the following four key components: economic potential and development of the resource base; markets and pipelines; environmental and socio-economic impacts; and, potential spin-off developments in the electricity and petrochemical industries. 26 tabs., 53 figs

OIL MARKET, NUCLEAR ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM EMERGING ECONOMIES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hanan Naser

2014-04-01

Full Text Available This paper empirically examines the relationship between oil consumption, nuclear energy consumption, oil price and economic growth in four emerging economies (Russia, China, South Korea, and India over the period from 1965 to 2010. Applying a modified version of the granger causality test developed by Toda and Yamamoto, we find that the level of world crude oil prices (WTI plays a crucial role in determining the economic growth in the investigated countries. The results suggest that there is a unidirectional causality running from real GDP to oil consumption in China and South Korea, while bidirectional relationship between oil consumption and real GDP growth appears in India. Furthermore, the results propose that while nuclear energy stimulates economic growth in both South Korea and India, the rapid increase in China economic growth requires additional usage of nuclear energy.

Preference for olive oil consumption in the Spanish local market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bernabéu, R.; Díaz, M.

2016-07-01

It is becoming ever more important for the olive oil industry in Spain to adopt a business strategy based on client orientation. In this sense, the objective of this paper is to identify the preferences of olive oil consumers and propose a series of business strategies for the producing sector. The methodology consisted in a survey of 404 olive oil consumers during the months of January and February 2013, whose preferences were determined through several multivariate techniques (conjoint analysis, consumer segmentation and a simulation of market share). The preferred olive oil is low priced, extra virgin and organic. The type of bottle does not appear to be relevant in the buying decision process, although it might be a factor in increasing market share. The current economic crisis has resulted in the emergence of two consumer segments; 67.1% of consumers selected the olive oil they buy on the basis of price and 32.9% were guided by the product’s specific attributes, which include, for example, organic production, which can be another differentiating element for producing companies.

Preference for olive oil consumption in the Spanish local market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bernabéu, R.; Díaz, M.

2016-01-01

It is becoming ever more important for the olive oil industry in Spain to adopt a business strategy based on client orientation. In this sense, the objective of this paper is to identify the preferences of olive oil consumers and propose a series of business strategies for the producing sector. The methodology consisted in a survey of 404 olive oil consumers during the months of January and February 2013, whose preferences were determined through several multivariate techniques (conjoint analysis, consumer segmentation and a simulation of market share). The preferred olive oil is low priced, extra virgin and organic. The type of bottle does not appear to be relevant in the buying decision process, although it might be a factor in increasing market share. The current economic crisis has resulted in the emergence of two consumer segments; 67.1% of consumers selected the olive oil they buy on the basis of price and 32.9% were guided by the product’s specific attributes, which include, for example, organic production, which can be another differentiating element for producing companies.

Preference for olive oil consumption in the Spanish local market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rodolfo Bernabéu

2016-12-01

Full Text Available It is becoming ever more important for the olive oil industry in Spain to adopt a business strategy based on client orientation. In this sense, the objective of this paper is to identify the preferences of olive oil consumers and propose a series of business strategies for the producing sector. The methodology consisted in a survey of 404 olive oil consumers during the months of January and February 2013, whose preferences were determined through several multivariate techniques (conjoint analysis, consumer segmentation and a simulation of market share. The preferred olive oil is low priced, extra virgin and organic. The type of bottle does not appear to be relevant in the buying decision process, although it might be a factor in increasing market share. The current economic crisis has resulted in the emergence of two consumer segments; 67.1% of consumers selected the olive oil they buy on the basis of price and 32.9% were guided by the product’s specific attributes, which include, for example, organic production, which can be another differentiating element for producing companies.

Emerging Market Firms’ Acquisitions in Advanced Markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stucchi, Tamara

2012-01-01

markets. These antecedents can influence emerging market firms’ capacities to absorb or exploit technological and/or marketing advantages in advanced markets. In order to be successful, emerging market firms have to undertake those upmarket acquisitions that best “fit” their antecedents. Four mutually......This study draws upon the resource-based view and the institution-based view of the firm to provide a comprehensive overview of how different resource-, institution- and industry-based antecedents affect the motivations guiding the acquisitions that emerging market firms undertake in advanced...... exclusive acquisition strategies are derived, which are then illustrated using examples of Indian firms’ acquisitions in advanced markets....

The new great game : international oil markets; Middle East domination or regionalisation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Odell, P.R.

1998-01-01

The dynamics of international supply and demand for oil and its effect on world oil prices are discussed. The impact of stagnant prices over the past 15 years on the Middle East, Russia, China and OPEC members was described, together with an attempt to explain the reasons for: (1) Middle East domination or regionalisation, (2) the emergence of a regionalized oil industry, (3) the Middle East as the residual supplier, and (4) the future of Middle East oil and of traded markets. 3 tabs., 5 figs

Marketing in the Emerging Markets of Islamic Countries

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Marinov, Marin Alexandrov

Among the limited publications on marketing in emerging markets this book focuses on regional specifics of Islamic Countries and the appropriate approaches for reaching their markets with effective and efficient marketing strategies. Marketing in the Emerging Markets of Islamic Countries...

Market opportunities and challenges for oil sands

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wise, T.H.

2004-01-01

The use of Alberta bitumen as a clean fuel depends on upgrading, transportation, and refining processes. Forecasts show that oil sands production, which includes synthetic crude oil (SCO), will surpass declining conventional production from the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin. The challenges facing the oils sands processing industry include: crude oil prices which affect the producer's market; market expansion options; diluent availability/cost; supply cost competitiveness; and, regional processing. The common market issues include light/heavy crude prices, oil sands crude qualities, prices of oil sands crudes, pipeline infrastructure, and competitive supplies. The issues facing the refiners are: refining margins, security of crude supply, refined product quality, and competitive product supply. It was noted that Alberta must retain or increase its share of the Midwest market. The market expansion options were reviewed for both downstream (refining) and upstream (upgrading) operations. New pipeline capacity is needed to reach more distant markets such as Southern Midwest, Washington, and California. The market is nearly saturated for Canada's heavy oil supply. More upgrading will be required as bitumen production increases. Market growth is still possible for Canada's SCO but according to forecasts, the market could also become saturated. To increase demand and allow supplies to grow, SCO prices may fall below light crude prices. It was noted that a balance must be achieved in order for producers to increase production and for refiner/upgraders to expand their conversion capacity. 13 figs

Focus on Energy Security. Costs, Benefits and Financing of Holding Emergency Oil Stocks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stelter, Jan; Nishida, Yuichiro

2013-07-01

Oil is traded in a market where uncertainty, price volatility, and sudden supply disruptions are common characteristics. Natural disasters, political disagreements and wars can seriously disrupt oil supply and demand with consequent detrimental impacts on economic activity. One particularly powerful policy tool that IEA member countries have to respond to such disruptions is the release of emergency oil stocks. In its 40 year history, the IEA released stocks on three occasions to reduce the supply disruptions and the associated economic damage. This paper provides a general guide to the existing emergency stockholding system for those countries who are considering the introduction of new stockholding systems or changes to their existing emergency stocks. It draws together analysis of the costs and benefits of emergency stocks, in addition to exploring options for financing the establishment of stocks.

Update on Spain's oil market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Whitaker, D.; Gutierrez, I.

1994-01-01

Since Spain's entry into the European Community a liberalisation of the oil industry has occurred culminating in two oil sector reform laws passed in 1992. While competition has increased, a return to the free-market policies which held sway before 1927 has not happened. Rather, three large companies dominate the Spanish oil market, with continuing input from government towards liberalization, if somewhat slowly. This paper describes recent changes and examines factors which limit liberalization policies. (UK)

International oil market: instability and restructuring

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ayoub, A

1988-12-01

The three phenomena which today dominate the international oil market are: 1. the downward price trend since 1981 and the uncertainty about medium and long term price evolution; 2. chronic price instability in the short term; 3. the trend toward new forms of vertical integration and concentration which are now stabilizing a market confronted by a weakening OPEC and free markets which are volatile. The new market restructuring the present period for the international oil sector as a transition period, with the following characteristics: 1. an evident convergence in the motivations of the major oil companies and of a number of OPEC countries, to see a certain stability restored in the oil market based on vertical integration and concentration; 2. markets cannot be stabilized by political agreements between the states, but only by reciprocal financial implications and participations between companies according to the rules of the business world; 3. the market as a whole will still continue for a certain time to be governed by the OPEC-free market pair, with alternating domination by one or the other according to the economic situation. Nevertheless, the longer the market continues to be unstable, the more the trend toward concentration and integration will intensify.

World oil market simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baldwin, N.

1992-01-01

This paper presents a recursive simulation model of the world oil market - the World Oil Market Simulation Model (WOMS). The objective was to construct a computationally simple model which provides a transparent view of the workings of the oil market. In the event WOMS has a number of features which distinguish it from other published models: the effect of exchange rate movements is incorporated in the supply and demand functions; both demand and supply functions are dynamic; the non-OPEC supply functions account for the geological as well as the economic aspects of supply; oil prices can be determined either by OPEC setting prices (as normally included in this type of model) or by OPEC setting volumes and market forces determining the price; and consistency checks on consumers' and producers' behaviour are incorporated to confirm the plausibility of model projections. The paper commences with an outline of the model structure followed by an examination of the choice of the appropriate data. The main sections of the paper discuss the estimation of the demand and non-OPEC supply functions. Finally the modelling of OPEC's behaviour is addressed. Comparisons are made throughout with other published work. As the model was estimated using data covering 1960 to 1985, brief comments are also made comparing the events of 1986 with model determined values. (author)

Do structural oil-market shocks affect stock prices?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Apergis, Nicholas; Miller, Stephen M.

2009-01-01

This paper investigates how explicit structural shocks that characterize the endogenous character of oil price changes affect stock-market returns in a sample of eight countries - Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. For each country, the analysis proceeds in two steps. First, modifying the procedure of Kilian [Not All Oil Price Shocks are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market. American Economic Review.], we employ a vector error-correction or vector autoregressive model to decompose oil-price changes into three components: oil-supply shocks, global aggregate-demand shocks, and global oil-demand shocks. The last component relates to specific idiosyncratic features of the oil market, such as changes in the precautionary demand concerning the uncertainty about the availability of future oil supplies. Second, recovering the oil-supply shocks, global aggregate-demand shocks, and global oil-demand shocks from the first analysis, we then employ a vector autoregressive model to determine the effects of these structural shocks on the stock market returns in our sample of eight countries. We find that international stock market returns do not respond in a large way to oil market shocks. That is, the significant effects that exist prove small in magnitude. (author)

Catching the Brass Ring: Oil Market Diversification Potential for Canada

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michal C. Moore

2011-12-01

Full Text Available This paper examines the nature and structure of the Canadian oil export market in the context of world prices for heavy crude oil and the potential price differential available to Canadian producers gaining access to new overseas markets. Success in this arena will allow Canada to reap incredible economic benefits. For example, the near term benefits for increased access to Gulf Coast markets after mid-continent bottlenecks are removed, are significant, representing nearly 10$ US per barrel for Canadian producers. On the Pacific Coast, the world market is represented by growing capacity for heavy crude products in emerging Asian markets including Japan, Korea and China and existing heavy crude facilities in California and the west coast. Here, in the reference scenario for California and Asia the benefits are assumed to begin in 2020. The differential value range in California in 2020 is estimated at $7.20US per barrel and escalates to $8.77US by 2030. In Asia, the benefit range is estimated to grow from $11.15US per barrel in 2020 to $13.60US in 2030. Those higher prices for Canadian heavy oil would translate into significant increases in profits, jobs and government revenues. With better access and new pipeline capacity, oil producers will see more efficient access to international markets which can add up to $131 billion to Canada’s GDP between 2016 and 2030 in the reference scenario. This amounts to over $27 billion in federal, provincial and municipal tax receipts, along with an estimated 649,000 person-years of employment. Alberta will be the principal but not sole beneficiary from increased access to world market pricing. Most provinces and territories will realize fiscal and economic gains from the distribution and sale of products reflecting reduced costs and increased access to refineries for heavy oil. The key to this change is the elimination of current bottlenecks in transport and the expansion of a network of pipelines that can

Investigating price clustering in the oil futures market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Narayan, Paresh Kumar [School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Deakin University (Australia); Narayan, Seema [School of Economics, Finance and Marketing, Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology, Melbourne (Australia); Popp, Stephan [Department of Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen (Germany)

2011-01-15

Price clustering can be a source of market inefficiency. It follows that searching for price clustering in markets have gone beyond share prices into real estate, interest rate, and exchange rate markets. In this paper, we extend this line of research to oil futures markets. In particular, we consider five different forms of oil futures contracts and test for evidence of price clustering. Our results reveal strong presence of price clustering in the oil futures market. This finding implies that price clustering can potentially be a source of oil market inefficiency, which can influence trading strategies. (author)

Investigating price clustering in the oil futures market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Narayan, Paresh Kumar; Narayan, Seema; Popp, Stephan

2011-01-01

Price clustering can be a source of market inefficiency. It follows that searching for price clustering in markets have gone beyond share prices into real estate, interest rate, and exchange rate markets. In this paper, we extend this line of research to oil futures markets. In particular, we consider five different forms of oil futures contracts and test for evidence of price clustering. Our results reveal strong presence of price clustering in the oil futures market. This finding implies that price clustering can potentially be a source of oil market inefficiency, which can influence trading strategies. (author)

Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2012: Market Trends and Projections to 2017

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2012-07-01

Supply shortfalls – from the Libyan civil war in 2011 and international sanctions on Iran in 2012 to a swathe of unplanned non-OPEC output stoppages – have buffeted the oil market, sending prices near 2008 highs and rekindling debate on the role of speculation in fuelling volatility. There have also been success stories. Growth in North American light, tight oil and non-conventional supply has reached game-changing levels. Iraqi production has scaled new heights, the Libyan production recovery in 2012 defied expectations and Saudi output surged to 30-year highs. On the demand front, the economic recovery has lost momentum. Market share continues to shift from mature to newly industrialised economies, but amid persistent concerns about the health of the former; China, the leading engine of oil demand growth of the last 15 years, is giving signs of slowdown. Those developments have challenged earlier assumptions and significantly changed the oil market outlook for the next five years. The IEA Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) – companion to the monthly OMR – draws their implications for the future. It provides detailed projections for oil supply at field level, crude quality trends, demand by product, refined product output and oil investments through 2017. It examines oil price formation, regulatory changes, OPEC dynamics and the future of spare capacity – while also reviewing the contribution of new supplies from deepwater, light tight oil, biofuel and natural gas liquids. It explores how market changes are reshaping the refining industry – and what that means for trade flows. At a time of heightened economic and geopolitical risk, MTOMR is essential reading for anyone interested in oil market dynamics and in understanding the oil market context in which these risks are playing out.

Derivatives in emerging markets

OpenAIRE

Dubravko Mihaljek; Frank Packer

2010-01-01

Turnover of derivatives has grown more rapidly in emerging markets than in developed countries. Foreign exchange derivatives are the most commonly traded of all risk categories, with increasingly frequent turnover in emerging market currencies and a growing share of cross-border transactions. As the global reach of the financial centres in emerging Asia has expanded, the offshore trading of many emerging market currency derivatives has risen as well. Growth in derivatives turnover is positive...

The Effects of Oil Price Shocks on IIP and CPI in Emerging Countries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yukino Sakashita

2016-09-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we investigate the effects of oil price shocks on the production and price level in five emerging countries through comparison with the United States, using a two-block structural VAR model of the global crude oil market proposed by Kilian and Park (see International Economic, vol. 50, 2009, pp. 1267–1287. Our main finding is that the effect of oil price shocks on the index of the industrial production (IIP and consumer price index (CPI in emerging countries also depends on where the changes fundamentally come from (this is also the case for the United States. We also found that some emerging countries showed unique impulse response patterns, the shapes of which are different from those of the United States and there are differences in impulse response patterns among emerging countries.

Changes in the world market in oil and oil refinements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ristik, Julija

1996-01-01

Since 1980's the world market for crude oil and oil products has faced significant changes that are going to have a grate influence on the supply and consumption of crude oil derivatives in Macedonia. The knowledge of these changes would have a grate contribution in planning the future development of this part of the energetic system of Macedonia. The purpose of this paper (which is a short version of the introductory report for the ZEMAK session with a theme 'Energetic policy and development of energetics in Macedonia') is to present the actual situation on the market for crude oil products, as well as to give the main factors that would have influence on this market in the future. (author). 4 refs., 3 ills

Russian oil goes to market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kandelaki, T.L.; Tankayev, R.U.

1997-01-01

In 1996, Russia retained its place as the world's third largest producer of oil and gas condensate after Saudi Arabia and the USA. Data are provided on Russia's oil sales to its domestic market, to the former Soviet Union and to the rest of the world. These are accompanied by a commentary on Russia's world-wide market, refining in Russia, transportation costs of crude from the generally remote areas where it is produced and price ranges in the various market segments. (7 tables) (UK)

The impact of the Arab Spring on the hydrocarbon industry and on oil markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perrin, Francis

2011-01-01

The author discusses direct and indirect, actual and potential, short term and medium term consequences on oil industries, sector and markets of tensions, disorders and conflicts which occurred in Arab countries during the so-called Arab Spring. He first addresses the impact on oil price in relationship with the situation of production is some of the concerned countries. If oil prices have then been increasing with a peak in April, they decreased thereafter because of perspectives of a world economic downturn. He evokes the possible consequences of the return of Libyan crude oils on international markets, and discusses the implications of a higher political risk in Northern African and Middle-Eastern countries. He finally questions the possible emergence of new oil and gas policies elaborated by authorities in these countries

Special report: EC oil market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1992-01-01

A European Commission report on the EC's oil market has conceded that the Community will not meet its official objective of reducing oil's share of energy consumption to 40% by 1995. The paper, a 'Communication' to the European Council entitled ''The Oil Market and the Refining Industry in the Community: Recent Developments and Prospects'' says oil will ''continue to account for a major share - of the order of 45% -of the Community's energy consumption'' up to the year 2000. Nonetheless, the report's authors insist the Commission has proposed ''a number of measures'' which could reduce the potential consumption of fossil fuels and help limit CO2 emissions. The report confirms that though lower in 1990 than 1980 at 530mt, oil demand picked up in the second half of the 1980s, reflecting world trends. Little impression has been made on the proportion of the Community's crude supply that is imported. However, one area where the report did find energy objectives successes was that of diversifying sources of crude oil supply. A major source of concern for the Commission at one stage in the second half of the 1980s was the possibility of massive imports of finished oil products from refineries in the oil producing countries. However, the fact that this threat did not materialise is taken as a vindication of the Commission's assessment in previous analyses that ''an open Community market should be maintained''. (author)

Dynamics of world oil crops market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Knežević Marija

2012-01-01

Full Text Available According to the harvested area, oil crops are the second most important crops after cereals. Soybean is the most important oil crop in terms of production and trade of oilseeds and meals, and second most important in terms of production and trade of vegetable oils after palm oil. Dynamics of prices of derived oil crop products in the international market is conditioned by the relationship between supply and demand in the overall market of oil crops. The substitution of animal fats with vegetable oils in human nutrition, the expansion of biodiesel industry and intensification of livestock production have led to increased demand for oil crops. The objective of this paper was to identify trends in production, consumption and trade of soybeans, rapeseed and sunflower and their derived products.

Crude oil spot market pricing: Pearsonian analysis of crude oil spot market prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Akinnusi, Ayo

1994-01-01

This paper presents a brief overview of crude oil pricing before describing a study of sets of 1991 spot market prices, and examining Pearson's model. Empirical distribution characteristics for 14 crude oils are tabulated, and skewness-kurtosis relationship and implication are considered. (UK)

The Chinese Olive Oil Market Today Import Prices,Market Segments, Opportunities and Challenges%The Chinese Olive Oil Market Today Import Prioes,Market Segments, Opportunities and Challenges

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Mateo Radnic

2011-01-01

@@ Ⅰ .EDIBLE OIL CONSUMPTION IN CHINA According to the data of Edible Oil Consumption in China,this market has constantly growth over the last years, doublingits size in only 8 years.For the past year 2010, the market sizereaches over 29 thousand tons.

Oil price and financial markets: Multivariate dynamic frequency analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Creti, Anna; Ftiti, Zied; Guesmi, Khaled

2014-01-01

The aim of this paper is to study the degree of interdependence between oil price and stock market index into two groups of countries: oil-importers and oil-exporters. To this end, we propose a new empirical methodology allowing a time-varying dynamic correlation measure between the stock market index and the oil price series. We use the frequency approach proposed by Priestley and Tong (1973), that is the evolutionary co-spectral analysis. This method allows us to distinguish between short-run and medium-run dependence. In order to complete our study by analysing long-run dependence, we use the cointegration procedure developed by Engle and Granger (1987). We find that interdependence between the oil price and the stock market is stronger in exporters' markets than in the importers' ones. - Highlights: • A new time-varying measure for the stock markets and oil price relationship in different horizons. • We propose a new empirical methodology: multivariate frequency approach. • We propose a comparison between oil importing and exporting countries. • We show that oil is not always countercyclical with respect to stock markets. • When high oil prices originate from supply shocks, oil is countercyclical with stock markets

European gas oil markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Long, D.

1991-04-01

The developments over the past five years of the bulk markets for gas oil in Europe are examined using advanced econometric techniques to study the related issues of pricing efficiency and hedge efficiency. The study attempts to preserve the fluctuations of the actual data as these provide insights into the process of price discovery. The markets studied include the spot, forward and futures markets and looks for evidence of differentiated markets. (UK)

Oil markets to 2010: the impact of non-Opec oil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Enav, Peter

1998-09-01

This report provides an in-depth assessment of oil development scenarios in every non-Opec oil producing country from 1998 to 2010, in addition to evaluating the extent and direction of future oil trade for Opec and non-Opec countries alike. It re-assesses world oil consumption patterns in light of the Asian financial crisis, providing a concise yet comprehensive coverage of an often-neglected oil production group. The oil market development scenario is analysed in each country, with detailed consideration of the major players providing historical production, consumption, import and export data; current oil balance - production, imports and exports; an assessment of oil development policy; analysis of potential development obstacles considering regulatory, financial, political and environmental issues; oil production and consumption projections to 2010, by type; and import and export projections to 2010, by destination and source. More than 80 tables supplying essential statistics on the world's non-Opec markets accompany the report, with maps and schematic diagrams showing existing and potential infrastructure and fields. (Author)

The oil markets: A vision

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miras Salamanca, P.

2007-01-01

Although oil markets show high levels of volatility, governments and institutions are much more concern with the problem of security of supply. Fundamental drivers of these markets vary from global questions (such as the balance between world supply and demand or the geopolitical situation), to national and local issues (regulation, industry structure and the cost chain in a given market). Global factors account for the lions share of the final price. Therefore, price variations of oil products tend to be similar in different environment. However, regulators and competition watchdogs should put special attention to supervise smaller areas, where specific problems could occur. (Author)

Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) 2009

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2009-06-29

This fourth edition of the IEA Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) confronts an economic landscape unrecognisable from that seen at the time of the release of the summer 2008 edition. Crude prices are now 55% lower as financial and economic meltdown have slashed demand, with worldwide contraction in oil use at levels not seen since the early 1980s. But how long will the downturn last, and what is the likely profile of global and regional demand recovery when economic rebound eventually takes root? Has almost a decade of rising prices and costs changed the demand-side blueprint and forced the world onto a lower oil intensity path for the period through 2014? Equally importantly, the report identifies the impact that weaker demand, low prices and a credit squeeze are having on supply-side investment - in upstream OPEC/non-OPEC supply, biofuels capacity and refining infrastructure alike. The 2009 edition of the MTOMR also delves into the issues of diversifying FSU crude exports, evolving crude and product qualities, the importance of petrochemical markets and perceptions on oil price formation in the down-cycle. Two demand scenarios are presented based on differing economic growth assumptions, with a lower non-OPEC supply scenario also accompanying the lower GDP case. Summary oil balances highlight how OPEC spare capacity could develop during 2008-2014. This year, the MTOMR also consolidates analysis of future crude availability and trade flows, refining capacity and oil products supply implications under one cover. The MTOMR remains required reading for policy makers, market analysts, industry participants and anyone with an interest in oil market trends. It contains detailed statistical appendices and a wealth of insightful graphics. Alongside its monthly sister publication, the Oil Market Report, the MTOMR is a cornerstone of the IEA commitment to enhancing oil market transparency.

Utility residual fuel oil market conditions: An update

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mueller, H.A. Jr.

1992-01-01

Planning for residual fuel oil usage and management remains an important part of the generation fuel planning and management function for many utilities. EPRI's Utility Planning Methods Center has maintained its analytical overview of the fuel oil markets as part of its overall fuel planning and management research program. This overview provides an update of recent fuel oil market directions. Several key events of the past year have had important implications for residual fuel oil markets. The key events have been the changes brought about by the Persian Gulf War and its aftermath, as well as continuing environmental policy developments. The Persian Gulf conflict has created renewed interest in reducing fuel oil use by utilities as part of an overall reduction in oil imports. The policy analysis performed to date has generally failed to properly evaluate utility industry capability. The Persian Gulf conflict has also resulted in an important change in the structure of international oil markets. The result of this policy-based change is likely to be a shift in oil pricing strategy. Finally, continued change in environmental requirements is continuing to shift utility residual oil requirements, but is also changing the nature of the US resid market itself

Gold-Stock Market Relationship: Emerging Markets versus Developed Markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jalal Seifoddini

2017-09-01

Full Text Available We perform a comparative study on the gold-stock market relationship in U.S. stock market as a developed market and in Iran stock market as an emerging market. By considering appropriate variables for emerging markets and by providing a more proper methodology, we improve earlier studies. According to our findings, the relationship between stock market returns and gold price returns does not follow any specific regimes and that this relationship changes in short and long term returns. It is necessary to mention that in the present research, we did not consider this relationship in major structural changes in the economies and instead considered usual economic circumstances that investors are regularly faced with in their investment decisions.

Joint ventures and concentrations in oil market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tabarelli, D.

1996-01-01

Many are the joint ventures taken during last year by the oil companies as a move towards the ever existing rules of the oil market: integration, economies of scale and reduction of competitive market uncertainty. This article discusses some of the most interesting points of the recent events and the initiatives in the Italian market

Market brief : the oil and gas market in Bolivia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2004-03-01

This report presents a market overview of the oil and gas sector in Bolivia and describes the potential for Canadian suppliers to enter into joint ventures to establish local production facilities and transfer technology expertise. Bolivia has an estimated 54.9 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves and 440.5 million barrels of proven oil reserves. The main hope for future economic growth in Bolivia hinges on increasing natural gas exports. Opportunities for Canadian companies exist in exploration, production and pipeline construction. There is also a demand for drilling machinery equipment, pipeline components and services for the expansion of the proposed Bolivia-Brazil pipeline. The largest energy company in Bolivia is Repsol YPF which operates through its subsidiary Empress Petrolera Andina. The largest end-users of oil and gas equipment and services include domestic upstream operators and international oil majors and international exploration and production companies. This report describes the key factors shaping market growth along with the competitive environment, local capabilities, international competition and the Canadian position. Considerations for market-entry in Bolivia were also outlined.

Collaborative Approaches in Emerging Markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Søberg, Peder Veng; Han, Yang

2011-01-01

, in order to increase innovation performance. The theoretical framework is based on theories on trust, as well as institutional theory. The findings suggest that cognition-based trust as well as affect-based trust is needed for successful innovative collaboration, however, in emerging markets affect......The paper investigates innovative collaboration undertaken by newly established foreign invested R&D units in emerging markets. In particular, the paper investigates how foreign invested newly established R&D centers in emerging markets can leverage local knowledge networks, such as universities......-based trust is more important than Westerners are used to. This is due to the different institutional backgrounds, in emerging markets and developed markets respectively....

How does market concern derived from the Internet affect oil prices?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guo, Jian-Feng; Ji, Qiang

2013-01-01

Highlights: • The impact of market concern derived from the Web on oil volatility is analysed. • It has an equilibrium relationship between oil prices and long-run market concern. • The short-run market concerns have an asymmetric influence on oil price volatility. • The Internet can exaggerate the impact of information shocks on oil price. - Abstract: With the acceleration of oil marketisation and the rapid development of electronic information carriers, external information shocks can be easily and quickly transmitted to the oil market through the Internet. This paper analyses the impact of short- and long-run market concerns, derived from search query volumes in Google for different domains around the oil market on oil volatility using co-integration and the modified EGARCH model. Empirical results suggest there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between oil prices and long-run market concern for oil prices and oil demand. The short-run market concerns for the 2008 financial crisis and the Libyan war convulsion have a significant and asymmetric influence on oil price volatility. This indicates that market concern transmitted through the Internet can strengthen the linkage between oil price changes and external events by influencing the expectation of market traders, and to some extent it can exaggerate the impact of nonfundamental information shocks

The interdependence among oil markets: Any discernible patterns?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Osayimwese, I.

1992-01-01

A study is presented which tests a hypothesis about co-movement of oil prices in all regions, implying that markets are interdependent. The hypothesis is tested against the background of the structural changes that occurred in the oil industry during the last 20 years, using the concept of cointegration. These changes occurred mainly in response to the oil price hikes in the 1970s and the price collapse in 1986. Refinery upgrading and increased flexibility in buying and selling crude oil and products, as well as the continuing articulation of oil markets with a variety of specific instruments, are key elements of the transformation during the past 15-20 years. A framework for modelling market interdependence via three approaches is outlined, focusing on the approach that consists of exploring the univariate time-series characteristics of two or more random variables with a view to verifying that the variables tend to move together in the long term. To examine the empirical evidence for market interdependence, monthly observations on crude and product prices from three major spot markets are used. Cointegration tests show that spot and futures market prices for gas, oil and crudes move closely together in the long run. In particular, the key role played by price differences rather than absolute price levels as a market barometer is confirmed. A test of the law of one price between two markets for the same crude or product generally confirms the co-movement of prices. It is concluded that, globally, oil markets are integrated and indeed constitute one great pool. 29 refs., 4 figs., 4 tabs

The oil market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Durousset, M.

1999-01-01

This document presents todays economical and strategic realities of the oil market. According to the author, petroleum will remain a vital energy source essentially supplied by the Middle-East with strong increasing and decreasing demand changes. (J.S.)

The effect of global oil price shocks on China's metal markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Chuanguo; Tu, Xiaohua

2016-01-01

This paper investigated the impacts of global oil price shocks on the whole metal market and two typical metal markets: copper and aluminum. We applied the autoregressive conditional jump intensity (ARJI) model, combining with the generalized conditional heteroscedasticity (GRACH) method, to describe the volatility process and jump behavior in the global oil market. We separated the oil price shocks into positive and negative parts, to analyze whether oil price volatility had symmetric impacts on China’s metal markets. We further used the likelihood ratio test to examine the symmetric effect of oil price shocks. In addition, we considered the jump behavior in oil prices as an input factor to investigate how China’s metal markets are affected when jumps occur in the global oil market, in contrast to the existing research paying little attention to this issue. Our results indicate that crude oil price shocks have significant impacts on China's metal markets and the impacts are symmetric. When compared with aluminum, copper is more easily affected by oil price shocks. - Highlights: • We investigated the effect of oil price shocks on China’s metal markets. • The oil price shocks had significant impacts on China's metal markets • The oil price shocks on China's metal markets were symmetric. • Copper is more easily affected by oil price shocks than aluminum.

Expanding U.S. markets for Canadian crude oil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heath, M.; Angevine, G.; Chan, K.; Renne, G.; Stariha, J.; MacKay, E.

1993-01-01

The quantities and types of Canadian, U.S. and competing foreign crudes flowing into U.S. market regions and the potential to retain and/or expand Canadian crude oil sales in each of those markets, was studied. The various pipeline system expansion/construction proposals were reviewed. Findings of the study with respect to prospects for crude oil sales into each of the U.S. market regions were presented. Opportunities and constraints with regard to the potential for incremental crude oil sales into each of the U.S. market regions were detailed. The study concluded that there was a substantial market in the U.S. for incremental sales of Canadian crudes. Most of the refineries in the U.S. market regions were more flexible in terms of their crude diet than they were before the rationalization and restructuring of the industry began. The market for crude oil in the U.S. was shown to be one of the most competitive in the world and the most volatile. The study also revealed that there were risks associated with large additions to the capacity to ship crude oil by pipeline from Western Canada, given the uncertainties surrounding future supply. 4 refs., figs., tabs

Multifractal detrended cross-correlations between crude oil market and Chinese ten sector stock markets

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Liansheng; Zhu, Yingming; Wang, Yudong; Wang, Yiqi

2016-11-01

Based on the daily price data of spot prices of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and ten CSI300 sector indices in China, we apply multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA) method to investigate the cross-correlations between crude oil and Chinese sector stock markets. We find that the strength of multifractality between WTI crude oil and energy sector stock market is the highest, followed by the strength of multifractality between WTI crude oil and financial sector market, which reflects a close connection between energy and financial market. Then we do vector autoregression (VAR) analysis to capture the interdependencies among the multiple time series. By comparing the strength of multifractality for original data and residual errors of VAR model, we get a conclusion that vector auto-regression (VAR) model could not be used to describe the dynamics of the cross-correlations between WTI crude oil and the ten sector stock markets.

EMERGING MARKETS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

GHEORGHE CARALICEA-MĂRCULESCU

2012-03-01

Full Text Available The emerging markets are winning the currency war, because at this very moment its the battle of global financial institutions , as to who is more vulnerable and more exposed to the debt crisis and have their hands in more risky assets. US and Euro with their intertwining the financial stuff of the nation, the banks and the corporations are in a deep mess. One goes down, takes the other ones too. Right now , they all are struggling and getting beaten up , while the emerging markets are quiet and not really expressing their stands on the current situation except are reacting by all only putting their own houses in order.

Oil shock transmission to stock market returns: Wavelet-multivariate Markov switching GARCH approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jammazi, Rania

2012-01-01

Since oil prices are typically governed by nonlinear and chaotic behavior, it’s become rather difficult to capture the dominant properties of their fluctuations. In recent years, unprecedented interest emerged on the decomposition methods in order to capture drifts or spikes relatively to this data. Together, our understanding of the nature of crude oil price shocks and their effects on the stock market returns has evolved noticeably. We accommodate these findings to investigate two issues that have been at the center of recent debates on the effect of crude oil shocks on the stock market returns of five developed countries (USA, UK, Japan, Germany and Canada). First, we analyze whether shocks and or volatility emanating from two major crude oil markets are transmitted to the equity markets. We do this by applying, the Haar A Trous Wavelet decomposition to monthly real crude oil series in a first step, and the trivariate BEKK Markov Switching GARCH model to analyze the effect of the smooth part on the degree of the stock market instability in a second step. The motivation behind the use of the former method is that noises and erratic behavior often appeared at the edge of the signal, can affect the quality of the shock and thus increase erroneous results of the shock transmission to the stock market. The proposed model is able to circumvent the path dependency problem that can influence the prediction’s robustness and can provide useful information for investors and government agencies that have largely based their views on the notion that crude oil markets affect negatively stock market returns. Second, under the hypothesis of common increased volatility, we investigate whether these states happen around the identified international crises. Indeed, the results show that the A Haar Trous Wavelet decomposition method appears to be an important step toward improving accuracy of the smooth signal in detecting key real crude oil volatility features. Additionally

Market efficiency in the emerging securitized real estate markets

OpenAIRE

Schindler, Felix

2010-01-01

This paper tests the random walk hypothesis and market efficiency for twelve emerging as well as for four developed securitized real estate markets from 1992 to 2009. Random walk properties of equity prices influence return dynamics, and market efficiency is often considered an essential criterion in the assessment of the functionality of markets and the asset pricing process, which is of significant relevance for emerging markets in particular. The analysis is based on autocorrelation tests ...

The future world oil market: state of nature or social contract?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Noel, P.

1999-10-01

Mary Ann Tetreault develops a very interesting interpretation of the emerging new relationship between international oil companies and Middle East producing countries. The original intellectual tools she handles-concepts drawn from the European political philosophy tradition-allow her to argue as follows: (1) the oil market left to itself- whether participants are states or firms-behaves like a Hobbesian ''state of nature'' often resulting in a situation damaging to each participant; (2) to deal with it, the international oil community has historically relied on different types of organisations, but these social contracts or ''republics'' were inherently unstable since they rested on too narrowly defined interests; (3) the rationale behind the possible return of oil companies to the richest Middle East countries is the search for new ''international oil republics'' able to ''offer greater security and higher profits for all the good republicans among them''. (author)

Oil Market and Prices Prospects for 2014

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mariana Papatulica

2013-10-01

Full Text Available The international crude oil prices started the year 2014 within parameters comparable to those of the precedent year: WTI (USA recorded 92 $/barrel, on the American spot market, considered a minimum value for the last 5 weeks, while Brent (Great Britain had a more stable evolution, on the spot Rotterdam market, staying around a value of 107,50 $/barrel. Despite analysts’ forecasts, which during the last 3 years staked on a lower oil price, as a consequence of the spectacular increase in non-OPEC oil production, namely of shale oil, the international oil price, namely that of Brent, closed each of the last 3 years around the same level, of 108 $/barrel. As for 2014, the great majority of oil analysts estimates again a decline of oil prices, as a result of a significant rise of oil offer globally, which will greatly surpass the demand rise.

Oil seed marketing prospects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ceroni, G.

1992-01-01

With its 100 million tonnes annual production, the American continent is by far the world's biggest producer of oil seed, followed by Asia - 52 million, and Europe - 27 million tonnes. The Italian and European Communities have the farming capacity to double their production, but international agreements currently prohibit such initiatives. After first providing a panorama of the world oil seed market, this paper discusses new reforms in European Communities internal agricultural policies which currently limit production. These reforms, intended to encourage the production of oil seed for use as an ecological automotive fuel alternative, call for an obligatory set-aside of 15% of producing farm-land in exchange for the compensatory removal of oil seed production limits

Economic crisis and oil market balances

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duquesnoy, S.; Rozenberg, J.; Hourcade, J.Ch.

2011-01-01

One might intuitively think that an economic crisis would at least relieve the pressure on oil supply since it slows energy demand. From the model of the oil market DYSMO, we show that an economic crisis may on the contrary increase tension, as it postpones investment in oil supply. (authors)

OIL PRICES AND THE KUWAITI AND THE SAUDI STOCK MARKETS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Samih Antoine Azar

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to test the impact of oil price shocks on the stock markets of the two biggest and most liquid GCC equity markets, those of Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. It is expected that the two stock markets react similarly to oil price shocks. Actually the results show heterogeneity in responses. While there is prima facie evidence that both stock markets are influenced positively and linearly by oil price shocks, this evidence disappears when additional variables are added to the regressions. With the larger specification oil price shocks do not impact, neither linearly or non-linearly, Kuwaiti stock markets. By contrast Saudi markets react non-linearly to both oil price shocks and shocks in the US S&P 500. The only common feature for both equity markets is the positive relation with the shocks in the US S&P 500.

Asian-Pacific markets : a new strategy for Alberta oil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laureshen, C.J.; Du Plessis, D.; Xu, C.M.; Chung, K.H.

2004-01-01

Alberta's oil sands contain an estimated crude bitumen-in-place of nearly 2.5 trillion barrels. Production has increased to the point where it has overtaken non-conventional sources, and is expected to reach more than 2 million barrels per day by 2012, and over 5 million barrels per day by 2030. Although it is assumed that most of this production will be marketed in the United States, the industry is facing many constraints that could affect potential crude oil production and existing market share. The Asian-Pacific region is an obvious new market for Canadian heavy oil and bitumen due to an increasing demand for petroleum products in that region and the potential for reaching the California market with the same pipeline. This paper examined the following three criteria that will determine the success of any initiative to move Canadian crude oil to Asian-Pacific markets: (1) a sustainable supply of crude from Alberta; a pipeline to transport the crude to a deepwater port on the west coast; and, a guaranteed market at the other end. The feasibility of marketing Alberta heavy oil and bitumen to Asia was also discussed. 12 refs., 1 tab., 8 figs

Crude oil market report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1985-01-01

Falling demand for refined products and an excess of production capacity are driving world oil prices down further. Competitive price cutting, notably by Mexico, Britain, and the Soviet Union, has left Saudi Arabia the only guardian of a costly pricing discipline in terms of crude oil sales. The current crisis is limited to the producers of crude oil. Refineries are now deciding what, where, and how to buy crude in order to meet the requirements of a slack market place. Saudi Arabia could precipitate a price collapse below $20 per barrel by increasing production volume, but that seems unlikely. 1 figure, 2 tables.

Cross-correlations between crude oil and exchange markets for selected oil rich economies

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Jianfeng; Lu, Xinsheng; Zhou, Ying

2016-07-01

Using multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA), this paper studies the cross-correlation behavior between crude oil market and five selected exchange rate markets. The dataset covers the period of January 1,1996-December 31,2014, and contains 4,633 observations for each of the series, including daily closing prices of crude oil, Australian Dollars, Canadian Dollars, Mexican Pesos, Russian Rubles, and South African Rand. Our empirical results obtained from cross-correlation statistic and cross-correlation coefficient have confirmed the existence of cross-correlations, and the MF-DCCA results have demonstrated a strong multifractality between cross-correlated crude oil market and exchange rate markets in both short term and long term. Using rolling window analysis, we have also found the persistent cross-correlations between the exchange rates and crude oil returns, and the cross-correlation scaling exponents exhibit volatility during some time periods due to its sensitivity to sudden events.

A unified innovation approach to emerging markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Agarwal, Nivedita; Brem, Alexander; Grottke, Michael

2014-01-01

for emerging markets (2) and establish relative importance of key factors for product managers while conceptualizing a new product for emerging markets. In the first part, the study assembles the list of characteristics from the selected innovation theories revolving around emerging markets. Subsequently...... the overarching innovation approach for emerging markets and provides a common definition for a product considered relevant for emerging market. The results show high prioritization given to cost effective, easy to use and problem centric as compared to the sustainability, no-frills, resourceful, breakthrough...... and fast-to-market factors by product managers. However, the paper acknowledges that the prioritization results are subject to change given different motivation behind the various theories. Finally the paper proposes that, the eight key factors required factors to “play in” emerging markets would...

Market Potential Estimation for Tourism in Emerging Markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Baimai, Chaiwat

2009-10-01

Full Text Available The objective of this paper was to develop a useful framework for estimating demand for tourism in emerging markets. Tourism has become one of the most crucial sectors in a large number of emerging countries. Moreover, the tourism industry in such markets is forecasted to keep increasing in the next decade. Hence, understanding and accurately forecast demand in the industry is essential in order to manage this sector effectively. Using stepwise regression analysis, we found a number of important variables in estimating demand for tourism in emerging markets. Our regression model can benefit travel agencies and policy makers dealing with the tourism industry.

Volatility spillovers in China’s crude oil, corn and fuel ethanol markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haixia, Wu; Shiping, Li

2013-01-01

Price volatility spillovers among China’s crude oil, corn and fuel ethanol markets are analyzed based on weekly price data from September 5, 2003 to August 31, 2012, employing the univariate EGARCH model and the BEKK-MVGARCH model, respectively. The empirical results indicate a higher interaction among crude oil, corn and fuel ethanol markets after September, 2008. In the overall sample period, the results simultaneously provide strong evidence that there exist unidirectional spillover effects from the crude oil market to the corn and fuel ethanol markets, and double-directional spillovers between the corn market and the fuel ethanol market. However, the spillover effects from the corn and fuel ethanol markets to the crude oil market are not significant. -- Highlights: •Employing univariate EGARCH model and BEKK-MVGARCH model, respectively. Unidirectional spillover effects from crude oil market to corn and fuel ethanol markets. •Double-directional spillovers between corn market and fuel ethanol market. •The spillover effects from corn and fuel ethanol markets to crude oil market are not significant. •The empirical results indicate a higher interaction among crude oil, corn and fuel ethanol markets after September, 2008

Competitiveness in Emerging Markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

This book presents a collection of interrelated research advances in the field of technological entrepreneurship from the perspective of competition in emerging markets. Featuring contributions by scholars from different fields of interest, it provides a mix of theoretical developments, insights...... and research methods used to uncover the unexplored aspects of competitiveness in emerging markets in an age characterized by disruptive technologies....

Is the world oil market 'one great pool'? A test

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rodriguez, A.E.; Williams, M.D.

1993-01-01

In a recent paper (Weiner, 1991) it was argued that crude oil markets are regionalized, thus challenging the assertion that the world oil market is homogeneous. This argument bears on the effectiveness of various energy policies. It is argued that these policies should be analyzed using constructs such as antitrust markets, rather than in relation to an ad-hoc definition of regionalization like that used by Weiner. Regionalization and geographic antitrust markets, empirics, and policy implications of regional markets are discussed. By drawing clear parallels between the concept of regionalization and antitrust markets, it is shown that: due to Wiener's flawed methodological and empirical approach, it is not clear that crude oil markets are, in fact, regional; and policies that appear at first glance to require regional markets to be effective, may be explained even in a unified world market. Strong evidence is found in support of a unified world oil market. Some policy implications in the area of import taxes are discussed. 35 refs., 1 tab

Volatility persistence in crude oil markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Charles, Amélie; Darné, Olivier

2014-01-01

Financial market participants and policy-makers can benefit from a better understanding of how shocks can affect volatility over time. This study assesses the impact of structural changes and outliers on volatility persistence of three crude oil markets – Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) – between January 2, 1985 and June 17, 2011. We identify outliers using a new semi-parametric test based on conditional heteroscedasticity models. These large shocks can be associated with particular event patterns, such as the invasion of Kuwait by Iraq, the Operation Desert Storm, the Operation Desert Fox, and the Global Financial Crisis as well as OPEC announcements on production reduction or US announcements on crude inventories. We show that outliers can bias (i) the estimates of the parameters of the equation governing volatility dynamics; (ii) the regularity and non-negativity conditions of GARCH-type models (GARCH, IGARCH, FIGARCH and HYGARCH); and (iii) the detection of structural breaks in volatility, and thus the estimation of the persistence of the volatility. Therefore, taking into account the outliers on the volatility modelling process may improve the understanding of volatility in crude oil markets. - Highlights: • We study the impact of outliers on volatility persistence of crude oil markets. • We identify outliers and patches of outliers due to specific events. • We show that outliers can bias (i) the estimates of the parameters of GARCH models, (ii) the regularity and non-negativity conditions of GARCH-type models, (iii) the detection of structural breaks in volatility of crude oil markets

The future world oil market: state of nature or social contract?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Noel, P

1999-10-01

Mary Ann Tetreault develops a very interesting interpretation of the emerging new relationship between international oil companies and Middle East producing countries. The original intellectual tools she handles-concepts drawn from the European political philosophy tradition-allow her to argue as follows: (1) the oil market left to itself- whether participants are states or firms-behaves like a Hobbesian ''state of nature'' often resulting in a situation damaging to each participant; (2) to deal with it, the international oil community has historically relied on different types of organisations, but these social contracts or ''republics'' were inherently unstable since they rested on too narrowly defined interests; (3) the rationale behind the possible return of oil companies to the richest Middle East countries is the search for new ''international oil republics'' able to ''offer greater security and higher profits for all the good republicans among them''. (author)

Latin American oil markets and refining

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamaguchi, N.D.; Obadia, C.

1999-01-01

This paper provides an overview of the oil markets and refining in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela, and examines the production of crude oil in these countries. Details are given of Latin American refiners highlighting trends in crude distillation unit capacity, cracking to distillation ratios, and refining in the different countries. Latin American oil trade is discussed, and charts are presented illustrating crude production, oil consumption, crude refining capacity, cracking to distillation ratios, and oil imports and exports

Emerging Art Markets

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kraussl, R.G.W.; Logher, R.

2010-01-01

This paper analyzes the performance and risk-return characteristics of three major emerging art markets: Russia, China, and India. According to three national art market indices, built by hedonic regressions based on auction sales prices, the geometric annual returns are 10.00%, 5.70%, and 42.20%

Placing Brazil's heavy acid oils on international markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Szklo, Alexandre Salem; Machado, Giovani; Schaeffer, Roberto; Felipe Simoes, Andre; Barboza Mariano, Jacqueline

2006-01-01

This paper identifies the international market niches of Brazil's heavy acid oils. It analyzes the perspectives for making wider use of heavy acid oils, assessing their importance for certain oil-producing regions such as Brazil, Venezuela, West Africa, the North Sea and China. Within this context, the oil produced in the Marlim Field offshore Brazil is of specific interest, spurred by the development of its commercial brand name for placement on international markets and backed by ample production volumes. This analysis indicates keener international competition among acid oils produced in Brazil, the North Sea and the West Coast of Africa, through to 2010. However, over the long term, refinery conversion capacity is the key factor for channeling larger volumes of heavy acid oils to the international market. In this case, the future of acid oil producers will depend on investments in refineries close to oil product consumption centers. For Brazil, this means investments in modifying its refineries and setting up partnerships in the downstream segment for consumer centers absorbing all products of high added value, such as the USA and even Southeast Asia and Western Europe

The integration of China into the world crude oil market since 1998

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Raymond; Leung, Guy C.K.

2011-01-01

The integration of China into the world oil market is an important issue for at least two reasons. First, the influence of the country on the world oil market is dependent on the level of the integration. Second, integration into the world oil market means that China is opening itself up to potential disturbances in the world market and this leads to significant energy security concerns for the country. The aim of this paper is to investigate whether or not China is an integral part of the world oil market. By reviewing the relevant trade and pricing policies of the Chinese government as well as the behavior of the Chinese national oil companies, we find that China is actively engaging itself in the world oil market. Our time-series results show that the Chinese oil price is cointegrated with the major oil prices in the world and a high degree of co-movement between the prices is found. Causality between the price pairs is found to be bi-directional in most cases. The empirical results suggest that China is now an integral part of the world oil market. - Highlights: → Review of the oil trade and pricing policies of the Chinese government. → Review of the behavior of the Chinese national oil companies. → China is actively engaging itself in the world oil market. → Shipment data show that China can no longer be regarded as a separate market. → Strong co-movement between the Chinese oil price and the international oil prices.

Crude oil options market found to be efficient

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1992-01-01

This paper reports that the U.S. crude oil options market operates efficiently and does not overreact. The authors, with the JFK School of Government, studied the crude oil options market under a Department of Energy grant. The current market was created in November 1986 when the New York Mercantile Exchange introduced an options contract for delivery of West Texas intermediate crude futures. it has grown greatly since then

Modelling the world oil market: Assessment of a quarterly econometric model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dees, Stephane; Karadeloglou, Pavlos; Kaufmann, Robert K.; Sanchez, Marcelo

2007-01-01

This paper describes a structural econometric model of the world oil market that can be used to analyse oil market developments and risks. Oil demand depends on domestic economic activity and the real price of oil. Oil supply for non-OPEC producers, based on competitive behaviours, is constrained by geological and institutional conditions. Oil prices are determined by a 'price rule' that includes market conditions and OPEC behaviour. Policy simulations indicate that oil demand and non-OPEC supply are rather inelastic to changes in price, while OPEC decisions about quota and capacity utilisation have a significant, immediate impact on oil prices

Dynamic linkages among the gold market, US dollar and crude oil market

Science.gov (United States)

Mo, Bin; Nie, He; Jiang, Yonghong

2018-02-01

This paper aims to examine the dynamic linkages among the gold market, US dollar and crude oil market. The analysis also delves more deeply into the effect of the global financial crisis on the short-term relationship. We use fractional cointegration to analyze the long-term memory feature of these volatility processes to investigate whether they are tied through a common long-term equilibrium. The DCC-MGARCH model is employed to investigate the time-varying long-term linkages among these markets. The Krystou-Labys non-linear asymmetric Granger causality method is used to examine the effect of the financial crisis. We find that (i) there is clearly a long-term dependence among these markets; (ii) the dynamic gold-oil relationship is always positive and the oil-dollar relationship is always negative; and (iii) after the crisis, we can observe evidence of a positive non-linear causal relationship from gold to US dollar and US dollar to crude oil, and a negative non-linear causal relationship from US dollar to gold. Investors who want to construct their optimal portfolios and policymakers who aim to make effective macroeconomic policies should take these findings into account.

Oil and stock market volatility: A multivariate stochastic volatility perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vo, Minh

2011-01-01

This paper models the volatility of stock and oil futures markets using the multivariate stochastic volatility structure in an attempt to extract information intertwined in both markets for risk prediction. It offers four major findings. First, the stock and oil futures prices are inter-related. Their correlation follows a time-varying dynamic process and tends to increase when the markets are more volatile. Second, conditioned on the past information, the volatility in each market is very persistent, i.e., it varies in a predictable manner. Third, there is inter-market dependence in volatility. Innovations that hit either market can affect the volatility in the other market. In other words, conditioned on the persistence and the past volatility in their respective markets, the past volatility of the stock (oil futures) market also has predictive power over the future volatility of the oil futures (stock) market. Finally, the model produces more accurate Value-at-Risk estimates than other benchmarks commonly used in the financial industry. - Research Highlights: → This paper models the volatility of stock and oil futures markets using the multivariate stochastic volatility model. → The correlation between the two markets follows a time-varying dynamic process which tends to increase when the markets are more volatile. → The volatility in each market is very persistent. → Innovations that hit either market can affect the volatility in the other market. → The model produces more accurate Value-at-Risk estimates than other benchmarks commonly used in the financial industry.

Pharmaceutical market access in emerging markets: concepts, components, and future.

Science.gov (United States)

Kumar, Anuj; Juluru, Karthaveerya; Thimmaraju, Phani Kishore; Reddy, Jayachandra; Patil, Anand

2014-01-01

This article intends to consolidate the concepts of pharmaceutical market access and highlight its growing importance in emerging markets. Market access has gained considerable attention worldwide as countries try to contain their escalating healthcare expenditures amidst the global economic slowdown. This has resulted in governments adopting stricter measures for new product approval. Thus, pharmaceutical companies are finding it increasingly difficult to successfully address the specific challenges posed by various government and regulatory agencies and stakeholders. There is an increasing need to establish market access functions, especially in emerging markets, where the complex, dynamic healthcare landscape confounds product approval and uptake. Moreover, emerging markets are the engines of growth today, and, thus, performing in these markets is critical for the majority of pharmaceutical companies. To address the challenges posed by regulatory agencies and diverse stakeholders, a customized market access strategy is the need of the hour. A market access framework with specific tools and tactics will help companies to plan, implement, and monitor stakeholder engagement activities.

Environmental emergency in the oil production and oil products transport

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jozef Čopan

2006-10-01

Full Text Available The paper refers to the experience of the environmental emergency response in the case of accidental leakages of oil or oil products into the environment. The gained experience is demonstrated on four different sites where the remediation of contaminated soil / groundwater and emergency response were carried out by the Czech environmental company DEKONTA a.s.

Efficiency of crude oil markets: Evidences from informational entropy analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ortiz-Cruz, Alejandro; Rodriguez, Eduardo; Ibarra-Valdez, Carlos; Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose

2012-01-01

The role of crude oil as the main energy source for the global economic activity has motivated the discussion about the dynamics and causes of crude oil price changes. An accurate understanding of the issue should provide important guidelines for the design of optimal policies and government budget planning. Using daily data for WTI over the period January 1986–March 2011, we analyze the evolution of the informational complexity and efficiency for the crude oil market through multiscale entropy analysis. The results indicated that the crude oil market is informationally efficient over the scrutinized period except for two periods that correspond to the early 1990s and late 2000s US recessions. Overall, the results showed that deregulation has improved the operation of the market in the sense of making returns less predictable. On the other hand, there is some evidence that the probability of having a severe US economic recession increases as the informational efficiency decreases, which indicates that returns from crude oil markets are less uncertain during economic downturns. - Highlights: ► Entropy concepts are used to characterize crude oil prices. ► An index of market efficiency is introduced. ► Except for periods of economic recession, the crude oil market is informationally efficient.

Credit derivatives in emerging markets

OpenAIRE

Romain Rancière

2002-01-01

Credit Derivatives are securities that offer protection against credit or default risk of bonds or loans. The credit derivatives emerging market has grown rapidly and credit derivatives are widely used. This paper describes the emerging credit derivatives market structure. The current market activity is analyzed through elementary pricing dynamics and the study of the term structure of default risk. Focusing on the performance of credit derivatives in stress situation, including legal and mar...

The impact of energy derivatives on the crude oil market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fleming, J.; Ostdiek, B. [Jones Graduate School of Management, Rice University, MS 531, P.O. Box 1892 Houston, TX (United States)

1999-04-01

We examine the effects of energy derivatives trading on the crude oil market. There is a common public and regulatory perception that derivative securities increase volatility and can have a destabilizing effect on the underlying market. Consistent with this view, we find an abnormal increase in volatility for three consecutive weeks following the introduction of NYMEX crude oil futures. While there is also evidence of a longer-term volatility increase, this is likely due to exogenous factors, such as the continuing deregulation of the energy markets. Subsequent introductions of crude oil options and derivatives on other energy commodities have no effect on crude oil volatility. We also examine the effects of derivatives trading on the depth and liquidity of the crude oil market. This analysis reveals a strong inverse relation between the open interest in crude oil futures and spot market volatility. Specifically, when open interest is greater, the volatility shock associated with a given unexpected increase in volume is much smaller. (Copyright (c) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam. All rights reserved.)

The impact of energy derivatives on the crude oil market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fleming, J.; Ostdiek, B.

1999-01-01

We examine the effects of energy derivatives trading on the crude oil market. There is a common public and regulatory perception that derivative securities increase volatility and can have a destabilizing effect on the underlying market. Consistent with this view, we find an abnormal increase in volatility for three consecutive weeks following the introduction of NYMEX crude oil futures. While there is also evidence of a longer-term volatility increase, this is likely due to exogenous factors, such as the continuing deregulation of the energy markets. Subsequent introductions of crude oil options and derivatives on other energy commodities have no effect on crude oil volatility. We also examine the effects of derivatives trading on the depth and liquidity of the crude oil market. This analysis reveals a strong inverse relation between the open interest in crude oil futures and spot market volatility. Specifically, when open interest is greater, the volatility shock associated with a given unexpected increase in volume is much smaller. (Copyright (c) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam. All rights reserved.)

China's oil market and refining sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamaguchi, N.D.; Fridley, D.G.

2000-01-01

The article assesses the future for China's oil industry as the country makes the transition from a command economy to an international market. China has one of the world's biggest oil industries and recent years have seen much growth in exploration and development, refining capacity and trade. China is more and more dependent on oil imports and is now a major international player; it has attracted much outside investment. Diagrams show (i) how coal dominates other sources of energy in China; (ii) crude production 1977-1998; (iii) how Middle East crudes now dominate Chinese crude imports; (iv) the growth of petroleum demand in China; (v) the Chinese demand for petroleum products; (vi) the growth in transport fuels; (vii) Chinese product imports: import ban targeted diesel; (viii) crude imports favoured over product imports and (ix) refinery capacity and throughput. The changes are expected to result in further integration into international markets, increased transparency and a healthier oil business

Crude oil prices: Are our oil markets too tight?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simmons, M.R.

1997-01-01

The answer to the question posed in the title is that tightness in the market will surely prevail through 1997. And as discussed herein, with worldwide demand expected to continue to grow, there will be a strong call on extra oil supply. Meeting those demands, however, will not be straightforward--as many observers wrongly believe--considering the industry's practice of maintaining crude stocks at ''Just in time'' inventory levels. Further, impact will be felt from the growing rig shortage, particularly for deepwater units, and down-stream capacity limits. While these factors indicate 1997 should be another good year for the service industry, it is difficult to get any kind of consensus view from the oil price market. With most observers' information dominated by the rarely optimistic futures price of crude, as reflected by the NYMEX, the important fact is that oil prices have remained stable for three years and increased steadily through 1996

Market analysis of shale oil co-products. Appendices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1980-12-01

Data are presented in these appendices on the marketing and economic potential for soda ash, aluminia, and nahcolite as by-products of shale oil production. Appendices 1 and 2 contain data on the estimated capital and operating cost of an oil shales/mineral co-products recovery facility. Appendix 3 contains the marketing research data.

The World Oil Market: The Search for Balance in the New “Oil” Reality

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tatjiana A. Malova

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The article provides an analysis of change of the world oil market in the face of new "oil" reality. Factors of formation of new "oil" reality in the global world defined. Scientific background and current state of research of the problem are described. It is shownthat in the Russian and foreign literature the considerable attention is paid to the analysis of dynamics of the quantitative variables characterizing fluctuations and shocks in the oil market. At the same time the search for balance in the new "oil" reality are not considerably investigated yet. The proposed approach allows toreveal the substance of the transformation of the world oil market, to assess the changes in the oil market with the development of rhenium in terms of efficiency and functioning of the mechanism, the prospects of price volatility in the oil market. The main directions of transformation of the oil market are follows. Development of a subject basis of the oil market due to changes of a role of the main market players whose structure includes the USA, Saudi Arabia, Russia now. The impact of regulatory factors complex in the oil market towards equilibrium, which include activity of OPEC, supply of shale oil, future market,activity of the uniform regulator and national regulators. Transformation of the oil market in the direction of perfection of the competitive relations, achievement of optimum market balance as a result of coordination and interaction of interests of participants of the global oil market.

Stability factors for OPEC and the oil market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yousfi, Y.

1991-01-01

The nationalizations of the 1970s, as well as the 1973 and 1979 sharp price increases which heightened OPEC's notoriety, considerably exaggerated the organization's image of strength, power, and dominance. In contrast, the 1980s-which witnesses the murderous war between two OPEC founding members, the shrinkage of the energy market, the emergence of new oil exporters, the dramatic price collapse in early 1986, and acute economic crises in a great number of member countries-have framed OPEC as a weak and powerless organization, incapable of enforcing any discipline or establishing any dialogue with its competitors. This paper reports that in this period of market depression, the end of a cartel-or at best its breaking apart-became common talk as too much emphasis was placed on the deep antagonisms between the rich, less populated member countries and those with dense population and relatively low income

China Oil and Gas Market Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qiu, Yu

2004-08-01

China, with one-fifth of the world's population and one of the fastest rates of economic growth, is experiencing a boom in its energy requirements. China has been identified as a high priority market for the oil and gas sector. This priority has resulted in the high level of investment and many large-scale projects related to the oil and gas industry. Oil production from existing fields is expected to increase, new oil and gas fields will be developed, and the country's oil and gas transmission infrastructure will be extended to meet domestic demands. In addition, total domestic investment needs for the next three decades till 2030 are estimated at around $119 billion, and upstream exploration and development will account for about $69 billion. China's oil and gas exploitation business has been the biggest beneficiary of the bearish crude oil prices, national oil stockpile and the need of infrastructure. In the first six-month period of 2005, this industry has gained a profit of USD16.5 billion, up 73.4 per cent year-on-year. The country is becoming increasingly open to international oil companies, contractors and equipment suppliers, who can bring advanced technology, equipment, and management experience. In this context, considerable opportunities in the supply and service sectors are open to Dutch companies. This report analyses the present situation and market prospect of China upstream oil and gas industry, including: Current status of Chinese oil and gas industry analysis and future development forecast; Potential customers analysis, such as three stated-owned oil companies and their foreign partners;Domestic and foreign competitors analysis; Potential opportunities and challenges analysis; Providing contacts and information on main ongoing oil exploration and development projects, and business practices

How market environment may constrain global franchising in emerging markets

OpenAIRE

Baena Graciá, Verónica

2011-01-01

Although emerging markets are some of the fastest growing economies in the world and represent countries that are experiencing a substantial economic transformation, little is known about the factors influencing country selection for expansion in those markets. In an attempt to enhance the knowledge that managers and scholars have on franchising expansion, the present study examines how market conditions may constrain international diffusion of franchising in emerging markets. They are: i) ge...

OPEC oil production and market fundamentals: a causality relationship

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dahmani, A.; Al-Osaimy, M.H.

2001-01-01

This paper first establishes a statistical measurement for OPEC Member Countries' compliance levels with their respective quotas and then examines the correlations and the casual relationships between compliance levels and oil market fundamentals. The compliance level is measured by the deviation of the production level from the respective quota for OPEC Member Countries, and this is based on the Euclidean distance formula, while oil market fundamentals are represented by OECD oil demand and stock levels, and the OPEC Basket price and oil supply. Monthly data from January 1996 to June 2000 was used and two sub-periods considered, where the first sub-period was characterized by a low level of compliance and the second by a high level. The analytical results of correlations and causality showed different directions of relationships between compliance levels and oil market fundamentals. (author)

Shale oil specialty markets: Screening survey for United States applications

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1987-12-01

EG and G requested J. E. Sinor Consultants Inc. to carry out an initial screening study on the possibilities for producing specialty chemicals from oil shale. Raw shale oil is not an acceptable feedstock to refineries and there are not enough user of heavy fuel oil in the western oil shale region to provide a dependable market. The only alternatives are to hydrotreat the oil, or else ship it long distances to a larger market area. Either of these alternatives results in a cost penalty of several dollars per barrel. Instead of attempting to enter the large-volume petroleum products market, it was hypothesized that a small shale oil facility might be able to produce specialty chemicals with a high enough average value to absorb the high costs of shipping small quantities to distant markets and still provide a higher netback to the plant site than sales to the conventional petroleum products market. This approach, rather than attempting to refine shale oil or to modify its characteristics to satisfy the specifications for petroleum feedstocks or products, focuses instead on those particular characteristics which distinguish shale oil from petroleum, and attempts to identify applications which would justify a premium value for those distinctive characteristics. Because byproducts or specialty chemicals production has been a prominent feature of oil shale industries which have flourished for periods of time in various countries, a brief review of those industries provides a starting point for this study. 9 figs., 32 tabs.

Time-Varying Market Integration and Expected Returns in Emerging Markets

OpenAIRE

de Jong, Frank; de Roon, Frans

2001-01-01

We use a simple model in which the expected returns in emerging markets depend on their systematic risk as measured by their beta relative to the world portfolio as well as on the level of integration in that market. The level of integration is a time-varying variable that depends on the market value of the assets that can be held by domestic investors only versus the market value of the assets that can be traded freely. Our empirical analysis for 30 emerging markets shows that there are stro...

Time Varying Market Integration and Expected Rteurns in Emerging Markets

OpenAIRE

Jong, F.C.J.M. de; Roon, F.A. de

2001-01-01

We use a simple model in which the expected returns in emerging markets depend on their systematic risk as measured by their beta relative to the world portfolio as well as on the level of integration in that market.The level of integration is a time-varying variable that depends on the market value of the assets that can be held by domestic investors only versus the market value of the assets that can be traded freely.Our empirical analysis for 30 emerging markets shows that there are strong...

The fluctuations in oil prices in the OPEC countries and the impact on the world oil market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Buryanova N.V.

2017-08-01

Full Text Available the article examines the issues of influence of OPEC countries on the international oil market. Also, the author analyzes the state of the oil market and fluctuations in oil prices at the macroeconomic level for 2011–2016.

The Asia-Pacific oil market : prospects for Canadian oil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fesharaki, F.

2004-01-01

The Asia-Pacific region is among the fastest growing oil markets for which analysts predict healthy growth rates due to high energy demands from developing countries such as China. Increased oil demand will mean new refining capacity needs and increased supplies of crude oil. The indigenous crude supply in the Asia-Pacific region is limited and unable to meet the region's needs. Imports are therefore expected to rise continuously. Although the Middle East will continue to be the dominant player in meeting these growing oil needs, Canada has an opportunity to diversify the supply source and play a significant role in meeting the energy needs of the Asia-Pacific region. tabs., figs

Taxing the difference: World oil market projections 1994-2009

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reinsch, A.E.; Considine, J.I.; MacKay, E.J.

1994-01-01

The likely impacts of key uncertainties affecting the oil market were assessed, and reference price path to aid industry and governments in their investment and policy decisions, was provided. The reference market outlook corresponded to an annual growth of around 1.5% and a price of $ 18.00 per barrel. The greatest weakness of the market projections were found to be the expected performance of petroleum product demand growth. There was strong evidence that governments of major oil consuming countries had taken action to weaken the response of petroleum product demand to declines in the crude price, by driving an ever increasing fiscal wedge between the crude price and the corresponding product prices.The outcome is an asymmetry in demand response to crude price movements. Incorporation of this asymmetry into the world oil market model could have some disturbing results: under the reference case market assumptions, continuation of this tax and pricing policy would not only eliminate the price gains projected, but move the oil price below current levels on a sustained basis. The study concluded that OPEC members and the governments of the major industrialized oil consuming countries should strive to reach an agreement to avoid catastrophic price instability. refs., tabs., figs

OIL AND GAS FUTURES AND OPTIONS MARKET

OpenAIRE

Ante Nosić; Daria Karasalihović Sedlar; Lucija Jukić

2017-01-01

Energy mineral resources markets are represented by complex supply and demand ratios which are depending on different factors such as technical (transport) and geopolitical. The main specific of energy markets is represented by an uneven geographic distribution of hydrocarbon reserves and exploration on one hand and energy consumption on the other. World oil markets, although geographically localized, because of specific market trade, represent unique global market with decreasing price diffe...

Dynamic correlation between stock market and oil prices: The case of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries

OpenAIRE

Filis, George; Degiannakis, S.; Floros, C.

2011-01-01

The paper investigates the time-varying correlation between stock market prices and oil prices for oil-importing and oil-exporting countries. A DCC-GARCH-GJR approach is employed to test the above hypothesis based on data from six countries; Oil-exporting: Canada, Mexico, Brazil and Oil-importing: USA, Germany, Netherlands. The contemporaneous correlation results show that i) although time-varying correlation does not differ for oil-importing and oil-exporting economies, ii) the correlation i...

FOMC communication and emerging equity markets

OpenAIRE

Hayo, Bernd; Kutan, Ali M.; Neuenkirch, Matthias

2009-01-01

Using a GARCH model, we study the effects of Federal Funds target rate changes and FOMC communication on emerging equity market returns and volatility over the period 1998–2006. First, both types of news have a significant impact on market returns. Second, target rate changes are more important than informal communication. Third, the occurrence of monetary policy reports lowers price volatility. Finally, American emerging markets react more to U.S. news than non-American markets.

Testing the evolution of crude oil market efficiency: Data have the conn

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Bing; Li, Xiao-Ming; He, Fei

2014-01-01

Utilising a time-varying GAR (1)-TGARCH (1,1) model with different frequency data, we investigate the weak-form efficiency of major global crude oil spot markets in Europe, the US, the UAE and China for the period from December 2001 to August 2013. Our empirical results with weekly data indicate that all four markets have reached efficiency with few brief inefficient periods during the past decade, whereas the daily crude oil returns series suggest intermittent and inconsistent efficiency. We argue that the weekly Friday series fit the data better than the average series in autocorrelation tests. The evidence suggests that all four markets exhibit asymmetries in return-volatility reactions to different information shocks and that they react more strongly to bad news than to good news. The 2008 financial crisis has significantly affected the efficiency of oil markets. Furthermore, a comovement phenomenon and volatility spillover effects exist among the oil markets. Policy recommendations consistent with our empirical results are proposed, which address three issues: implementing prudential regulations, establishing an Asian pricing centre and improving transparency in crude oil spot markets. - Highlights: • We adopt a time-varying model to test the weak-form efficiency of crude oil markets. • Weekly oil returns series have been extremely efficient during the past decade. • Daily oil returns series have presented intermittent and inconsistent efficiency. • Oil markets react asymmetrically to different information shocks. • Policy recommendations are proposed according to the degree of efficiency

Financial market pressure, tacit collusion and oil price formation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aune, Finn Roar; Rosendahl, Knut Einar; Mohn, Klaus; Osmundsen, Petter

2010-01-01

We explore a hypothesis that a change in investment behaviour among international oil companies (IOC) towards the end of the 1990s had long-lived effects on OPEC strategies, and on oil price formation. Coordinated investment constraints were imposed on the IOCs through financial market pressures for improved short-term profitability in the wake of the Asian economic crisis. A partial equilibrium model for the global oil market is applied to compare the effects of these tacitly collusive capital constraints on oil supply with an alternative characterised by industrial stability. Our results suggest that even temporary economic and financial shocks may have a long-term impact on oil price formation. (author)

Oil market in the 1990s: implications for ESCWA countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gault, J.; Karbassioun, B.

1992-01-01

This paper, prepared for the ESCWA Expert Group Meeting in Amman, Jordan, 20-23 November 1989, concerns the outlook for oil markets in the coming decade and the implications of certain market trends for the ESCWA countries, including both the energy exporting and energy importing members of ESCWA. It is argued that increasing oil consumption may well bring world oil production close to physical capacity before the end of the 1990s, thereby provoking an increase in real oil prices. It is further argued that the uncertainty surrounding this scenario is asymmetric; it is more likely that real oil prices will rise than that they will remain stable or fall. Other major trends, including enhanced worldwide concern for the environment and the bilateralization of world trade, also will affect ESCWA countries. The authors conclude that member countries should expand petroleum exploration activities, improve the operating efficiency of their national oil companies, bring domestic energy prices into line with world markets, expand natural gas development and marketing efforts, participate in multilateral trade negotiations, and expand co-ordination in all energy matters. (Author)

The tenth CERI [Canadian Energy Research Institute] international oil and gas markets conference

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-01-01

At a conference on oil and gas markets, papers were presented on oil market instability and its impact on economic development, international energy policy, oil supply and demand, natural gas liquids sales, world gas trade, gas markets in Europe and Asia, petroleum industry activities and their relation to government, oil refining and product market developments, and the North American natural gas market. Separate abstracts have been prepared for 25 papers from this conference

Mideast crisis and pricing in the oil futures market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamed, A.H.

1992-01-01

Futures prices and the corresponding expected future cash price on crude oil markets differ. The difference is hypothesized to be due to a time varying risk premium where risk is due to either cash price volatility, oil output volatility, or unanticipated oil price movement. And this risk is measured by the conditional variance of the forementioned sources of risk. Using the ARCH (Autoregressive Conditional Heterosckdasticity) model and its extensions this study addresses the determination of the time varying risk premium. Political unrest in the Mideast oil exporting countries is hypothesized to be a determinant of the time varying risk premium in the oil futures market. The empirical tests allow informative inferences to be drawn on the role of political unrest in pricing oil

The European Gas and Oil Market: The Role of Norway

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harbo, F.

2008-01-01

The research question of this paper is related to the role of Norway in the European gas and oil market. This study aims to give a presentation of the energy policy in Norway and Norwegian participation at the European level. The first chapter will introduce Norwegian relations with Europe. For the purpose of my research, I will focus mainly on Norwegian energy policy in the second chapter, presenting Norway's oil industry in chapter 2.1.; Norwegian gas production in chapter 2.2.; and the Norwegian electrical power system in chapter 2.3. The sub-chapter 2.4. will analyse in detail the activity of the largest Norwegian oil and gas company, StatoilHydro. The third chapter will be dedicated to Norway's green energy policy (wind, sun and water), etc. The fourth chapter looks at the European perspective and will examine the European strategic gas and oil market in a globalized world. The fifth chapter will present Norway's participation in the European gas and oil market. Such strategic research must also include a look at the European Union's (EU) energy market development between Russia and Norway, which will be presented in chapter six. And finally, Norway's contribution to the development of an EU energy policy in fighting climate change will be emphasised in chapter seven. This research will analyse the following central issues: - Norwegian oil industry, - Norwegian gas production, - Norwegian electrical power system, - Norwegian challenges in the European gas and oil market. (author)

Asia-Pacific lube oil markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamaguchi, N.

2001-01-01

An overview of the Asia-Pacific (AP) lubricating oils market, its special characteristics, and its role in the global economy are presented. In the 'boom and bust' years of 1997-1999, the Asia-Pacific market was even bigger then the US market. For the short-term, the scenario is surplus capacity and poor margins, but in the long term there is enormous potential for growth. How fuel demand and quality is related to engine type is discussed. The three basic grades of baseoils are described, and the Asia-Pacific lube demand and the Asia-Pacific lube oil supply are discussed. There are 15 diagrams giving data on: (i) finished lubes in world markets as a percentage of total; (ii) how lube demand follows GDP per capita in Asia; (iii) AP baseoil capacity relationships; (iv) AP baseoil disposition by end use; (v) AP changing shares of baseoil demand; (vi) AP finished lube demand by subregion; (vii) AP finished lube demand growth, indexed; (viii) AP baseoil capacity by region; Singapore baseoil vs. Dubai crude prices, 1992-99; (ix) Singapore baseoil vs. crude prices, 1992-99; (x) AP baseoil deficit moved to surplus; (xi) AP baseoil production; (xii) East Asia net percentage change in lube sales, 1997-1999. (xiii) Southeast Asia net percentage change in lube sales, 1997-1999; (xiv) South East Asia and Australia net percentage change in lube sales, 1997-1999 and (xv) Asia-Pacific major lube marketers

Perspectives for pyrolysis oil production and market in Scandinavia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sipilae, K.; Oasmaa, A.; Solantausta, Y.; Arpiainen, V.; Nyroenen, T.

1999-01-01

Commercial power production from biomass is mainly based on various combustion technologies, new gasification technologies being on pilot and demonstration scale in Europe. From the market viewpoint, there will be an attractive and large market volume for small and medium-scale combined heat and power production (CHP) and for liquid bioenergy products in order to meet the Kyoto challenges in Europe by the year 2010. Biomass pyrolysis technology offers a novel method of converting solid biomass to a liquid product which can easily be transported, stored and utilised for electricity production by diesel engines and gas turbines. The overall efficiency in pyrolysis oil production can be increased from 65 to 90 % (LHV) by integrating the big-oil production to a conventional boiler plant, the-system identified by VTT. A modern diesel power plant has an efficiency of 40 - 44 % with a high power-to-heat ratio. Parallel to diesel power plants, the big-oil can be used in existing heating oil boilers with minor burner modifications. The paper comprises an overview of market assessments in Scandinavia and a summary of pyrolysis oil production, stability and properties tests. The challenge of today is to understand and improve the properties of pyrolysis oils in order to reach a 12-month storage time without any changes in the homogeneity of pyrolysis oils. Reliable operation of oil-fired boilers and diesel power plants has to be demonstrated. As soon as these problems have been solved, biomass pyrolysis technologies will offer new attractive bioenergy market opportunities where a huge potential can be reached by conversing existing petroleum-fired boilers, 0.1 - 10 MW to big-oils and followed by combined heat and power production with high-efficiency diesel power plants in 0.1 - 10 MW scale. Pyrolysis technology is clearly the most attractive method for producing liquid biofuels, compared to bioalcohols and biodiesel. With the present price structure, pyrolysis oil can be

Pecking Order Behavior in Emerging Markets

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Seifert, Bruce; Gonenc, Halit

2010-01-01

This paper examines the validity of the pecking order hypothesis in 23 emerging market countries. Emerging market countries would appear to be an ideal setting for the pecking order hypothesis to hold because of the presence of strong asymmetric information issues and agency costs. We observe,

Markets during world oil supply crises: an analysis of industry, consumer, and governmental response

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Erfle, Stephen; Pound, John; Kalt, Joseph

1981-04-01

An analysis of the response of American markets to supply crises in world oil markets is presented. It addresses four main issues: the efficiency of the operation of American oil markets during oil supply crises; the problems of both economic efficiency and social equity which arise during the American adaptation process; the propriety of the Federal government's past policy responses to these problems; and the relationship between perceptions of the problems caused by world oil crises and the real economic natures of these problems. Specifically, Chapter 1 presents a theoretical discussion of the effects of a world supply disruption on the price level and supply availability of the world market oil to any consuming country including the US Chapter 2 provides a theoretical and empirical analysis of the efficiency of the adaptations of US oil product markets to higher world oil prices. Chapter 3 examines the responses of various groups of US oil firms to the alterations observed in world markets, while Chapter 4 presents a theoretical explanation for the price-lagging behavior exhibited by firms in the US oil industry. Chapter 5 addresses the nature of both real and imagined oil market problems in the US during periods of world oil market transition. (MCW)

Europe and the Peak Oil, an emergency situation; Le Pic Petrolier et l'Europe, une situation d'urgence

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Durand, B.

2011-07-01

The author shows why, in the coming years, severe oil supply difficulties will emerge in countries like France and the majority of European countries which do not possess significant oil resources on their land. He also highlights the risks for the European Union if no action is undertaken in front of this perspective. He discusses the British example as the United Kingdom has been the first country to use fossil fuels in an industrial way, and also possessed important quantities of oil and natural gas in the Northern Sea. He discusses the various data concerning the Peak Oil, and outlines the rapid decrease of available oil quantities on the international market. He highlights the difficult situation which will soon face Europe, and that measures must me implemented in emergency

The outlook for the world and Australian oil markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Donaldson, K.; Fok, G.

1996-01-01

Global demand for oil is projected to continue its upward trend to 2000-1, with growth in the transport sector expected to underpin future increases in oil consumption. World oil consumption is projected to be matched by global production, keeping the average annual oil price relatively stable. In many countries, the diversion of oil revenue to other projects is threatening to constrain increases in production capacity, particularly in the OPEC countries. The encouragement of foreign investment in state oil industries is a likely method of easing the constraint. Australian exploration activity is rising steadily with the prospect of stable oil prices, expanding gas markets and the incentives provided by a number of recent discoveries. While the geographical pattern of Australian production has now changed, with Western Australian production exceeding Victoria production, Australia is expected to maintain its position in the world oil market as a significant producer, importer and exporter. (author). 6 figs., 23 refs

How equity markets view heavy oil

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Janisch, M. L. [Nesbitt Burns Research, Toronto, ON (Canada)

1996-12-31

Factors that influence the equity market in investment decisions vis-a-vis the oil sands/heavy oil industry were reviewed. The importance of financing methods (debt, royalty trusts, common equity), liquidity of investments, absolute vs. relative performance, comparative economics vis-a-vis conventional oil producers, oil prices, operating cost drivers (technology, natural gas costs, cost/availability of diluent), transportation and refining capacity, were summarized. In the final analysis, consistent economic success on a large scale, combined with an assessment of available alternatives, were considered to be the most likely motivators for portfolio managers. As a cautionary note, it was noted that traditionally, oil and gas investors have not been known to be in the forefront to invest in research and development.

How equity markets view heavy oil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Janisch, M. L.

1996-01-01

Factors that influence the equity market in investment decisions vis-a-vis the oil sands/heavy oil industry were reviewed. The importance of financing methods (debt, royalty trusts, common equity), liquidity of investments, absolute vs. relative performance, comparative economics vis-a-vis conventional oil producers, oil prices, operating cost drivers (technology, natural gas costs, cost/availability of diluent), transportation and refining capacity, were summarized. In the final analysis, consistent economic success on a large scale, combined with an assessment of available alternatives, were considered to be the most likely motivators for portfolio managers. As a cautionary note, it was noted that traditionally, oil and gas investors have not been known to be in the forefront to invest in research and development

Future markets and the two dimensions of instability in commodity markets: The oil experience

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Calabre, S.

1991-01-01

Public opinion and the media often suggest that futures markets have made the price of oil more unstable than it otherwise should be. It is argued that short-term price instability, associated with the functioning commodity futures markets, must be distinguished from medium-term instability, associated with the processes that adjust supply and consumption. Futures markets appear to be price destabilizing at times, although they also facilitate the management of trade in oil. In the medium term, however, stability and instability are determined by the mechanisms that adjust production and consumption. 39 refs., 4 figs

A unified world oil market: Regions in physical, economic, geographic, and political space

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaufmann, Robert K.; Banerjee, Shayan

2014-01-01

Although there is a general consensus that the market is unified, here we quantify the factors that create regions by analyzing the price relation between 33 crude oils. ADF statistics indicate that 447 of the 528 crude oil pairings cointegrate; 81 do not. The presence/absence of cointegration is analyzed using a logit model. The likelihood that the prices for two crude oils cointegrate depends on their physical characteristics (density and sulfur content), economic factors (country risk for the nation of origin), their geographic location (distance between supply ports), and political factors (OPEC membership). Over the sample period, the technology to refine heavy crude oils penetrates the market, and this reduces the price difference between heavy and light crude oils. The effect of country risk implies that crude oils from high risk nations are not perfect substitutes for crude oils of similar quality from low risk nations. Finally, crude oils from widely separated suppliers are more likely to cointegrate than crude oils from near-by nations, which suggests consumers diversify supply across transportation chokepoints. For this sample, these sources of regionalization add $0.20 per barrel to the $2.86 average price difference between crude oils in the same market. Together, these factors have important implications for the efficacy of policy aimed at reducing dependence on unreliable suppliers and the spill-over effects of holding inventories. - Highlights: • The world oil market is not completely unified. • Regions are defined by differences in API gravity and sulfur content. • Country risk regionalizes the world oil market. • Shipping chokepoints regionalize the world oil market. • Regionalization adds $0.20 to $2.86 price difference between oils in same market

13th CERI [Canadian Energy Research Inst.] international oil and gas markets conference

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-01-01

At an oil and gas industry conference, papers were presented on world oil supply and demand, energy geopolitics, world oil prices, the status of the Chinese oil/gas industry and prospects for exploration and development, Latin American oil/gas markets and development opportunities, the oil and gas industries in non-OPEC Middle East countries (Oman, Yemen, Turkey), oil and gas markets in North America, and financial and regulatory aspects of domestic gas markets in Canada and the USA. Separate abstracts have been prepared for 17 papers from this conference

Asset Pricing in Emerging Markets

OpenAIRE

Ajrapetova, Tamara

2017-01-01

General content: Current methods of estimation of cost of capital in the emerging markets are often neglecting various contradictions with the essentials of the model structure and assumptions. As the result of such imprecisions, the cost of equity is often understated (overstated). This thesis will attempt to assess current level of emerging market integration, liquidity and concentration. This will be followed by evaluation of traditional and alternative models for estimation of cost of equ...

IEA Response System for Oil Supply Emergencies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2008-12-15

Emergency response to oil supply disruptions has remained a core mission of the International Energy Agency since its founding in 1974. This information pamphlet explains the decisionmaking process leading to an IEA collective action, the measures available -- focusing on stockdraw -- and finally, the historical background of major oil supply disruptions and the IEA response to them. It also demonstrates the continuing need for emergency preparedness, including the growing importance of engaging key transition and emerging economies in dialogue about energy security.

IEA Response System for Oil Supply Emergencies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2010-07-15

Emergency response to oil supply disruptions has remained a core mission of the International Energy Agency since its founding in 1974. This information pamphlet explains the decisionmaking process leading to an IEA collective action, the measures available -- focusing on stockdraw -- and finally, the historical background of major oil supply disruptions and the IEA response to them. It also demonstrates the continuing need for emergency preparedness, including the growing importance of engaging key transition and emerging economies in dialogue about energy security.

Comment: Reluctance to trade a risky position in oil market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thomas, M.

1995-01-01

The oil industry is re-engineering, restructuring, down-sizing, etc. as part of a draconian effort to reduce costs and enhance profit margins. Benchmarking of corporate results against the competition is in vogue, with a view to challenging performance at every level of management. The bold can do attitude behind today's oil industry revolution in management grinds to a halt when the subject is oil trading. Mention speculation, oil pricing mechanisms, market risk-taking, or derivative instruments, and many in senior management and the corporate boardroom lapse into worried silence. When an oil company finishes restructuring and reconcentrating business direction, setting new investment and performance criteria, it is still left with the huge variable of price. Any corporate management that fails to act aggressively in the trading sector by pursuing the best possible oil price as a buyer or seller isn't living up to its responsibilities to shareholders. This article discusses market retreat, market imperfections, winners and losers, the decision to trade, developing a program and issues currently attracting oil industry attention

Market analysis of shale oil co-products. Summary report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1980-12-01

This study examines the potential for separating, upgrading and marketing sodium mineral co-products together with shale oil production. The co-products investigated are soda ash and alumina which are derived from the minerals nahcolite and dawsonite. Five cases were selected to reflect the variance in mineral and shale oil content in the identified resource. In the five cases examined, oil content of the shale was varied from 20 to 30 gallons per ton. Two sizes of facilities were analyzed for each resource case to determine economies of scale between a 15,000 barrel per day demonstration unit and a 50,000 barrel per day full sized plant. Three separate pieces of analysis were conducted in this study: analysis of manufacturing costs for shale oil and co-products; projection of potential world markets for alumina, soda ash, and nahcolite; and determination of economic viability and market potential for shale co-products.

Oil and Gas Emergency Policy: France 2012 update

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2012-07-01

In 2007, the IEA published ''Oil Supply Security: Emergency Response of IEA Countries''. This publication provides an overview of the IEA oil emergency response system and a detailed look at the specific systems in each IEA country for responding to an oil supply crisis. This publication represented the findings of a five year review cycle of the emergency response mechanisms in IEA member countries. Since the 2007 publication, the IEA has started a new cycle of reviews which now includes reviewing gas emergency policies. Rather than waiting for the completion of the current review cycle to renew this publication, the IEA will make available updates to the country chapters as these become available following the country's review.

Global market trade policy analysis for petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bagheri, F.

2012-01-01

Full Text Available This article is based on surveying the custom tariffs imposed on the world export market of Petroleum Oils and Oils Obtained from Bituminous Minerals, Crude. We obtained the data according to the most updated available data provided online by UNCTAD and World Bank. The results indicate that none of the 142 countries in the world market of this product have imposed non-tariff trade barriers on the import of Petroleum Oils and Oils Obtained from Bituminous Minerals, Crude. The developed countries and the countries with transition economies are the main world import partners. European Union, United States, China, Japan, South Korea, Canada, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, South Africa, Australia, Turkey, Brazil, Sweden and Belarus are the examples and have imposed low custom tariffs on Petroleum Oils and Oils Obtained from Bituminous Minerals, Crude.

Oil and Gas Emergency Policy: Canada 2010 update

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2011-07-01

This publication provides a detailed look at the specific systems in Canada for responding to an oil supply crisis. In 2007, the IEA published ''Oil Supply Security: Emergency Response of IEA Countries''. Rather than waiting for the completion of the current review cycle to renew this full publication, the IEA will provide updates to the country chapters as these become available following the specific country's review. The aim of series of publications is to provide an overview of the IEA oil emergency response system and a detailed look at the specific systems in each IEA country for responding to an oil supply crisis. The 2007 publication represented the findings of a five year review cycle of the emergency response mechanisms in IEA member countries. Since the 2007 publication, the IEA has started a new cycle of reviews which now includes reviewing gas emergency policies.

Oil and Gas Emergency Policy: Italy 2010 update

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2011-07-01

This publication provides a detailed look at the specific systems in Italy for responding to an oil supply crisis. In 2007, the IEA published ''Oil Supply Security: Emergency Response of IEA Countries''. Rather than waiting for the completion of the current review cycle to renew this full publication, the IEA will provide updates to the country chapters as these become available following the specific country's review. The aim of series of publications is to provide an overview of the IEA oil emergency response system and a detailed look at the specific systems in each IEA country for responding to an oil supply crisis. The 2007 publication represented the findings of a five year review cycle of the emergency response mechanisms in IEA member countries. Since the 2007 publication, the IEA has started a new cycle of reviews which now includes reviewing gas emergency policies.

Oil and Gas Emergency Policy: Greece 2010 update

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2011-07-01

This publication provides a detailed look at the specific systems in Greece for responding to an oil supply crisis. In 2007, the IEA published ''Oil Supply Security: Emergency Response of IEA Countries''. Rather than waiting for the completion of the current review cycle to renew this full publication, the IEA will provide updates to the country chapters as these become available following the specific country's review. The aim of series of publications is to provide an overview of the IEA oil emergency response system and a detailed look at the specific systems in each IEA country for responding to an oil supply crisis. The 2007 publication represented the findings of a five year review cycle of the emergency response mechanisms in IEA member countries. Since the 2007 publication, the IEA has started a new cycle of reviews which now includes reviewing gas emergency policies.

Oil and Gas Emergency Policy: Hungary 2012 update

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2012-09-06

This publication provides a detailed look at the specific systems in Hungary for responding to an oil supply crisis. In 2007, the IEA published ''Oil Supply Security: Emergency Response of IEA Countries''. Rather than waiting for the completion of the current review cycle to renew this full publication, the IEA will provide updates to the country chapters as these become available following the specific country's review. The aim of series of publications is to provide an overview of the IEA oil emergency response system and a detailed look at the specific systems in each IEA country for responding to an oil supply crisis. The 2007 publication represented the findings of a five year review cycle of the emergency response mechanisms in IEA member countries. Since the 2007 publication, the IEA has started a new cycle of reviews which now includes reviewing gas emergency policies.

Oil and Gas Emergency Policy: Luxembourg 2010 update

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2011-07-01

This publication provides a detailed look at the specific systems in Luxembourg for responding to an oil supply crisis. In 2007, the IEA published ''Oil Supply Security: Emergency Response of IEA Countries''. Rather than waiting for the completion of the current review cycle to renew this full publication, the IEA will provide updates to the country chapters as these become available following the specific country's review. The aim of series of publications is to provide an overview of the IEA oil emergency response system and a detailed look at the specific systems in each IEA country for responding to an oil supply crisis. The 2007 publication represented the findings of a five year review cycle of the emergency response mechanisms in IEA member countries. Since the 2007 publication, the IEA has started a new cycle of reviews which now includes reviewing gas emergency policies.

Entry Mode Choice in Emerging Markets

OpenAIRE

Gundersen, Anne Kathrine Navestad

2012-01-01

As the mature markets of developed economies have become increasingly saturated, firms are turning their attention towards emerging markets for further enterprise growth. However, these countries often present significant challenges for foreign entrants, forcing firms to adapt their strategies to the new context. While MNEs? entry mode choice is an extensively studied field, there is a deficit in the entry mode research on SMEs, and even more so when it comes to entry into emerging markets in...

Development of the German mineral oil market in 1995. Pt. 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mohnfeld, J.; Heinze, W.

1996-01-01

Following a brief glance at the boundary conditions for the German market (world oil market, inland energy consumption), the development of inland sales is described. One after one, the mineral oil products Otto engine fuel, diesel fuel, light fuel oil and heavy fuel oil are considered. Further sections deal with crude oil supply, the supply of mineral oil produce, refinery production, the development in the sales sector, the profit situation of the mineral oil industry, the development of prices (according to products) and expenditure in foreign exchange for mineral oil. The article contains numerous tables and graphs; comparisons with the years previously illustrate development trends. (UA) [de

Exploring oil market dynamics: a system dynamics model and microworld of the oil producers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Morecroft, J.D.W. [London Business School (United Kingdom); Marsh, B. [St Andrews Management Institute, Fife (United Kingdom)

1997-11-01

This chapter focuses on the development of a simulation model of global oil markets by Royal Dutch/Shell Planners in order to explore the implications of different scenarios. The model development process, mapping the decision making logic of the oil producers, the swing producer making enough to defend the intended price, the independents, quota setting, the opportunists, and market oil price and demand are examined. Use of the model to generate scenarios development of the model as a gaming simulator for training, design of the user interface, and the value of the model are considered in detail. (UK)

Explaining the so-called 'price premium' in oil markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Merino, A.; Ortiz, A.

2005-01-01

This paper explores the information content of several variables on the so-called ''oil price premium over fundamentals''. We define this premium as the difference between the market oil price and the estimated price consistent with the OECD's relative industry stock level. By using Granger causality tests and extended regressions we test the systematic ability of a broad set of variables to explain the premium. We find that speculation in the oil market - measured by non-commercial long positions - can improve the traditional model, reducing the premium significantly during some parts of the sample. (author)

An Examination of Market Entry Perspectives in Emerging Markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marvin O. Bates

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Purpose – The purpose of this article is to describe the marketing-oriented market entry approaches that businesses are currently using across the three levels of the world economic pyramid (i.e., WEP. These levels are the Top-tier, the Middle-tier, and the Base of the Pyramid-tier (i.e., BoP-tier. Methodology – The literature of the BoP was reviewed, and market entry approaches were itemized across the three WEP levels. Secondly, BoP strategic theorists including Prahalad identified the need for a BoP marketing focus replacing the traditional 4Ps marketing approach (i.e., Product, Price, Place and Promotion with the BoP-specific 4As marketing approach (i.e., Awareness, Affordability, Access and Availability. This 4As marketing approach is discussed. Findings – New marketing-oriented market-entry approaches are proposed for each of the three WEP levels. These approaches are based on where in the WEP the firm currently exists, and where in the WEP the firm desires to refocus market-entry activities; identified approaches include: inter-country expansion, intra-country entry, adjacent market entry, and extended market entry. Secondly, the absence of a clearly articulated marketing strategy for middle-tier markets was observed. Practical implications – This article has two specific applications. First, it summarizes the evolving market entry perspectives to provide a context for future market research in both emerging markets and the pre-emerging BoP markets. Second, the future requirement for an articulated marketing strategy for middle-tier markets is suggested. Originality – This article examined existing market entry approaches across all three levels of the WEP, inclusive of the BoP economic level. The language used to clarify market entry movements was extended, providing a specificity of description not previously found in either the existing market entry or BoP literature.

Prospect for the oil market as a consequence of the financial crisis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koppelaar, R.

2008-11-01

The Peak Oil Netherlands Foundation shines its light on the consequences of the financial crisis for the global oil market and the relation between oil prices and the credit crisis; short term supply and demand on the oil market; supply and demand of petroleum up to 2015; the volatility of the oil price and the meaning of volatility for the energy transition [mk] [nl

Oil and Gas Emergency Policy: Korea 2011 update

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2011-07-01

This publication provides a detailed look at the specific systems in the Republic of Korea for responding to an oil supply crisis. In 2007, the IEA published ''Oil Supply Security: Emergency Response of IEA Countries''. Rather than waiting for the completion of the current review cycle to renew this full publication, the IEA will provide updates to the country chapters as these become available following the specific country's review. The aim of series of publications is to provide an overview of the IEA oil emergency response system and a detailed look at the specific systems in each IEA country for responding to an oil supply crisis. The 2007 publication represented the findings of a five year review cycle of the emergency response mechanisms in IEA member countries. Since the 2007 publication, the IEA has started a new cycle of reviews which now includes reviewing gas emergency policies.

Oil and Gas Emergency Policy: Finland 2012 update

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2012-07-01

In 2007, the IEA published ''Oil Supply Security: Emergency Response of IEA Countries''. This publication provides an overview of the IEA oil emergency response system and a detailed look at the specific systems in each IEA country for responding to an oil supply crisis. This publication represented the findings of a five year review cycle of the emergency response mechanisms in IEA member countries. Since the 2007 publication, the IEA has started a new cycle of reviews which now includes reviewing gas emergency policies. Rather than waiting for the completion of the current review cycle to renew this publication, the IEA will make available updates to the country chapters as these become available following the country's review.

Oil and Gas Emergency Policy: Poland 2011 update

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2011-07-01

In 2007, the IEA published ''Oil Supply Security: Emergency Response of IEA Countries''. This publication provides an overview of the IEA oil emergency response system and a detailed look at the specific systems in each IEA country for responding to an oil supply crisis. This publication represented the findings of a five year review cycle of the emergency response mechanisms in IEA member countries. Since the 2007 publication, the IEA has started a new cycle of reviews which now includes reviewing gas emergency policies. Rather than waiting for the completion of the current review cycle to renew this publication, the IEA will make available updates to the country chapters as these become available following the country's review.

Oil and Gas Emergency Policy: Spain 2011 update

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2011-07-01

In 2007, the IEA published ''Oil Supply Security: Emergency Response of IEA Countries''. This publication provides an overview of the IEA oil emergency response system and a detailed look at the specific systems in each IEA country for responding to an oil supply crisis. This publication represented the findings of a five year review cycle of the emergency response mechanisms in IEA member countries. Since the 2007 publication, the IEA has started a new cycle of reviews which now includes reviewing gas emergency policies. Rather than waiting for the completion of the current review cycle to renew this publication, the IEA will make available updates to the country chapters as these become available following the country's review.

Oil and Gas Emergency Policy: Norway 2011 update

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2011-07-01

In 2007, the IEA published ''Oil Supply Security: Emergency Response of IEA Countries''. This publication provides an overview of the IEA oil emergency response system and a detailed look at the specific systems in each IEA country for responding to an oil supply crisis. This publication represented the findings of a five year review cycle of the emergency response mechanisms in IEA member countries. Since the 2007 publication, the IEA has started a new cycle of reviews which now includes reviewing gas emergency policies. Rather than waiting for the completion of the current review cycle to renew this publication, the IEA will make available updates to the country chapters as these become available following the country's review.

Oil and Gas Emergency Policy: Ireland 2011 update

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2011-07-01

In 2007, the IEA published ''Oil Supply Security: Emergency Response of IEA Countries''. This publication provides an overview of the IEA oil emergency response system and a detailed look at the specific systems in each IEA country for responding to an oil supply crisis. This publication represented the findings of a five year review cycle of the emergency response mechanisms in IEA member countries. Since the 2007 publication, the IEA has started a new cycle of reviews which now includes reviewing gas emergency policies. Rather than waiting for the completion of the current review cycle to renew this publication, the IEA will make available updates to the country chapters as these become available following the country's review.

Oil and Gas Emergency Policy: Belgium 2010 update

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2011-07-01

In 2007, the IEA published ''Oil Supply Security: Emergency Response of IEA Countries''. This publication provides an overview of the IEA oil emergency response system and a detailed look at the specific systems in each IEA country for responding to an oil supply crisis. This publication represented the findings of a five year review cycle of the emergency response mechanisms in IEA member countries. Since the 2007 publication, the IEA has started a new cycle of reviews which now includes reviewing gas emergency policies. Rather than waiting for the completion of the current review cycle to renew this publication, the IEA will make available updates to the country chapters as these become available following the country's review.

Oil and Gas Emergency Policy: Portugal 2011 update

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2011-07-01

In 2007, the IEA published ''Oil Supply Security: Emergency Response of IEA Countries''. This publication provides an overview of the IEA oil emergency response system and a detailed look at the specific systems in each IEA country for responding to an oil supply crisis. This publication represented the findings of a five year review cycle of the emergency response mechanisms in IEA member countries. Since the 2007 publication, the IEA has started a new cycle of reviews which now includes reviewing gas emergency policies. Rather than waiting for the completion of the current review cycle to renew this publication, the IEA will make available updates to the country chapters as these become available following the country's review.

Oil and Gas Emergency Policy: Denmark 2011 update

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2011-07-01

In 2007, the IEA published ''Oil Supply Security: Emergency Response of IEA Countries''. This publication provides an overview of the IEA oil emergency response system and a detailed look at the specific systems in each IEA country for responding to an oil supply crisis. This publication represented the findings of a five year review cycle of the emergency response mechanisms in IEA member countries. Since the 2007 publication, the IEA has started a new cycle of reviews which now includes reviewing gas emergency policies. Rather than waiting for the completion of the current review cycle to renew this publication, the IEA will make available updates to the country chapters as these become available following the country's review.

Oil and Gas Emergency Policy: Australia 2011 update

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2011-07-01

In 2007, the IEA published ''Oil Supply Security: Emergency Response of IEA Countries''. This publication provides an overview of the IEA oil emergency response system and a detailed look at the specific systems in each IEA country for responding to an oil supply crisis. This publication represented the findings of a five year review cycle of the emergency response mechanisms in IEA member countries. Since the 2007 publication, the IEA has started a new cycle of reviews which now includes reviewing gas emergency policies. Rather than waiting for the completion of the current review cycle to renew this publication, the IEA will make available updates to the country chapters as these become available following the country's review.

Oil and Gas Emergency Policy: France 2012 update

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2012-07-01

In 2007, the IEA published ''Oil Supply Security: Emergency Response of IEA Countries''. This publication provides an overview of the IEA oil emergency response system and a detailed look at the specific systems in each IEA country for responding to an oil supply crisis. This publication represented the findings of a five year review cycle of the emergency response mechanisms in IEA member countries. Since the 2007 publication, the IEA has started a new cycle of reviews which now includes reviewing gas emergency policies. Rather than waiting for the completion of the current review cycle to renew this publication, the IEA will make available updates to the country chapters as these become available following the country's review.

Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Countries

OpenAIRE

Frederic S. Mishkin

2000-01-01

This paper outlines what inflation targeting involves for emerging market/transition countries and discusses the advantages and disadvantages of this monetary policy strategy. The discussion suggests that although inflation targeting is not a panacea and may not be appropriate for many emerging market countries, it can be a highly useful monetary policy strategy in a number of them.

Energy swaps as profit motive instruments in oil markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arshi, A.A.

1992-01-01

In this paper, I introduce oil swaps as financial instruments available to oil producers and to buyers of crude oil and products, and the positive effects they can provide for marketing profitability. In addition, I seek to underline the complementarity of oil swaps, emphasizing the benefits which can result from efficiently monitored use of such tools. I review the various criteria to be considered when implementing swap arrangements and I examine standard and non-standard examples which I believe to be of interest. Due to the unfortunate fact that exchange market liquidity is limited, I am of the opinion that producers, if they think fit, should start with only a limited amount of their availability covered by such swap arrangements. Nevertheless, I wish to draw the attention of producers and buyers of crude oil and oil products to the benefits of swap arrangements, as described in this paper. (author)

The efficiency of the crude oil markets: Evidence from variance ratio tests

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Charles, Amelie, E-mail: acharles@audencia.co [Audencia Nantes, School of Management, 8 route de la Joneliere, 44312 Nantes (France); Darne, Olivier, E-mail: olivier.darne@univ-nantes.f [LEMNA, University of Nantes, IEMN-IAE, Chemin de la Censive du Tertre, 44322 Nantes (France)

2009-11-15

This study examines the random walk hypothesis for the crude oil markets, using daily data over the period 1982-2008. The weak-form efficient market hypothesis for two crude oil markets (UK Brent and US West Texas Intermediate) is tested with non-parametric variance ratio tests developed by [Wright J.H., 2000. Alternative variance-ratio tests using ranks and signs. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 18, 1-9] and [Belaire-Franch J. and Contreras D., 2004. Ranks and signs-based multiple variance ratio tests. Working paper, Department of Economic Analysis, University of Valencia] as well as the wild-bootstrap variance ratio tests suggested by [Kim, J.H., 2006. Wild bootstrapping variance ratio tests. Economics Letters, 92, 38-43]. We find that the Brent crude oil market is weak-form efficiency while the WTI crude oil market seems to be inefficiency on the 1994-2008 sub-period, suggesting that the deregulation have not improved the efficiency on the WTI crude oil market in the sense of making returns less predictable.

The efficiency of the crude oil markets. Evidence from variance ratio tests

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Charles, Amelie; Darne, Olivier

2009-01-01

This study examines the random walk hypothesis for the crude oil markets, using daily data over the period 1982-2008. The weak-form efficient market hypothesis for two crude oil markets (UK Brent and US West Texas Intermediate) is tested with non-parametric variance ratio tests developed by [Wright J.H., 2000. Alternative variance-ratio tests using ranks and signs. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 18, 1-9] and [Belaire-Franch J. and Contreras D., 2004. Ranks and signs-based multiple variance ratio tests. Working paper, Department of Economic Analysis, University of Valencia] as well as the wild-bootstrap variance ratio tests suggested by [Kim, J.H., 2006. Wild bootstrapping variance ratio tests. Economics Letters, 92, 38-43]. We find that the Brent crude oil market is weak-form efficiency while the WTI crude oil market seems to be inefficiency on the 1994-2008 sub-period, suggesting that the deregulation have not improved the efficiency on the WTI crude oil market in the sense of making returns less predictable. (author)

The efficiency of the crude oil markets. Evidence from variance ratio tests

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Charles, Amelie [Audencia Nantes, School of Management, 8 route de la Joneliere, 44312 Nantes (France); Darne, Olivier [LEMNA, University of Nantes, IEMN-IAE, Chemin de la Censive du Tertre, 44322 Nantes (France)

2009-11-15

This study examines the random walk hypothesis for the crude oil markets, using daily data over the period 1982-2008. The weak-form efficient market hypothesis for two crude oil markets (UK Brent and US West Texas Intermediate) is tested with non-parametric variance ratio tests developed by [Wright J.H., 2000. Alternative variance-ratio tests using ranks and signs. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 18, 1-9] and [Belaire-Franch J. and Contreras D., 2004. Ranks and signs-based multiple variance ratio tests. Working paper, Department of Economic Analysis, University of Valencia] as well as the wild-bootstrap variance ratio tests suggested by [Kim, J.H., 2006. Wild bootstrapping variance ratio tests. Economics Letters, 92, 38-43]. We find that the Brent crude oil market is weak-form efficiency while the WTI crude oil market seems to be inefficiency on the 1994-2008 sub-period, suggesting that the deregulation have not improved the efficiency on the WTI crude oil market in the sense of making returns less predictable. (author)

Marketing in the Emerging Markets of Latin America

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Marinov, Marin Alexandrov

. Addressing a broad variety of historical, political, economic, social, cultural and legal issues, the book offers unique insights into the enormous opportunities and challenges the region presents for implementing effective marketing strategies. Macro marketing issues such as regional integration, foreign......Marketing in the Emerging Markets of Latin America provides a much needed analysis of business and marketing in Latin America. The book highlights the diverse characteristics of the Latin American business and marketing environment as well as the dynamic nature of regional and country markets...... trade and direct investment are considered within the context of specific countries, as are the micro aspects of a company's marketing activities. The book is an extremely valuable resource for academics, practitioners and anyone interested in doing business in or with Latin America....

How equity markets view heavy oil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Janisch, M.L.

2001-01-01

A review of heavy oil economics was presented in this power point presentation with particular focus on investor motivation, the importance of heavy oil, and an outlook on commodity price for oil and natural gas. Heavy oil from oil sands is playing a major role on the Canadian domestic production front as well as globally. Almost all senior Canadian producers have a major heavy oil project in the works. Oil prices are forecasted to remain strong, but a more bullish outlook is expected for natural gas prices for both the short and long term. Natural gas drilling has increased, but the number of natural gas wells as a percentage of total wells has decreased. Recent Canadian drilling activity has placed more emphasis on crude oil production which has contributed to the lower overall natural gas drilling success rate. It was shown that infrastructure issues regarding tankers, refining capacity (at or near capacity) will be the major factor affecting the availability of crude products to market. It was also shown that heavy oil differentials have increased substantially, which could be a potential issue if oil prices begin to weaken. 1 tab., 12 figs

OIL AND GAS FUTURES AND OPTIONS MARKET

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ante Nosić

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Energy mineral resources markets are represented by complex supply and demand ratios which are depending on different factors such as technical (transport and geopolitical. The main specific of energy markets is represented by an uneven geographic distribution of hydrocarbon reserves and exploration on one hand and energy consumption on the other. World oil markets, although geographically localized, because of specific market trade, represent unique global market with decreasing price difference. Price differences are result of development of a transport possibilities of oil supply. Development of transport routes of natural gas and increasing number of liquefied natural gas terminals in the world give pressure to natural gas market and its integration into global gas market. Integration of regional gas markets into a common European gas market is main energy policy of EU concerning natural gas. On the other hand, there are still significant price differences on some markets (e.g. United States of America - South East Asia. Development of global energy markets is enabled by development of a futures and options contracts of an energy trade which have replaced bilateral contract deals between producers and consumers. Futures contracts are standardized contracts traded on exchanges. Buyer agrees to buy certain quantity of stock for an agreed upon price and with some future delivery date. Option is a contract which gives a buyer the option of the right to buy (or sell, depending on the option an asset at predetermined price and at a later date. Stocks price risk can be managed with the purchase and selling futures and options contracts. This paper deals with futures and options energy markets and their market strategies.

Testing market efficiency of crude palm oil futures to European participants

OpenAIRE

Liu, Xing

2009-01-01

Palm oil is the most consumed and traded vegetable oils in the EU and the world. Increasing non-food uses for vegetable oils in especially feedstock of biofuels in recent years have caused the price volatility to rise in both EU and global market. The most efficient pricing of crude palm oil (CPO) is to found on Bursa Malaysia (BMD), and it provides by far the world’s most liquid palm oil contract. The goal of this study is to investigate CPO futures market efficiency of BMD for the European ...

The economy of palm oil production and marketing in Igala land ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The economy of palm oil production and marketing in Igala land. ... Palm oil processing and marketing constituted one of the major occupations of the people as men, women and even the young ones ... EMAIL FULL TEXT EMAIL FULL TEXT

Local contexts as activation mechanisms of market development: contemporary art in emerging markets

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Komarova, N.; Velthuis, O.

2018-01-01

The paper studies how local contexts contribute to the emergence of markets. In particular, it explains how potential entrepreneurs are motivated to become active in establishing new markets. Empirically, the focus is on contemporary art markets in two emerging countries: India and Russia. The paper

The Dilemma of the Oil Market in the Current Geopolitical Context

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cristina Teodora Balaceanu

2017-06-01

Full Text Available In an increasingly globalized world, where the effects of technology have an overwhelming impact on people's lives, meaning an increase in appetite for consumption of luxury goods, of lifestyle, it seems that conventional resources are becoming fewer and their use in industrial processes lead to environmental harm, at least from pollution. Essentially, oil prices influence governments, companies, and markets of raw materials markets of finite economic goods, markets of conventional and unconventional energy and an assumed oil crisis would lead to stronger inflections on the market, with repercussions on the overall level of prices, the oil price being generally regarded as decisive for the other prices in the economy.

Crude oil and stock markets. Stability, instability, and bubbles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miller, J. Isaac; Ratti, Ronald A.

2009-01-01

We analyze the long-run relationship between the world price of crude oil and international stock markets over 1971:1-2008:3 using a cointegrated vector error correction model with additional regressors. Allowing for endogenously identified breaks in the cointegrating and error correction matrices, we find evidence for breaks after 1980:5, 1988:1, and 1999:9. There is a clear long-run relationship between these series for six OECD countries for 1971:1-1980.5 and 1988:2-1999.9, suggesting that stock market indices respond negatively to increases in the oil price in the long run. During 1980.6-1988.1, we find relationships that are not statistically significantly different from either zero or from the relationships of the previous period. The expected negative long-run relationship appears to disintegrate after 1999.9. This finding supports a conjecture of change in the relationship between real oil price and real stock prices in the last decade compared to earlier years, which may suggest the presence of several stock market bubbles and/or oil price bubbles since the turn of the century. (author)

Market risks and oilfield ownership - Refining oil and gas disclosures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kretzschmar, Gavin L.; Hatherly, David; Misund, Bard

2007-01-01

Market risk exposures of balance sheet asset values are becoming an increasingly important accounting issue. In oil and gas, oilfield exposures to oil prices are specific and contractual, presenting a contingency problem for investors, financial analysts, standard setting bodies and government agencies. Our paper uses an extensive sample of 292 oilfields to provide evidence that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) supplementary disclosures do not capture the price sensitivities of oil and gas disclosures implicit in the two main forms of oilfield ownership, concession and production sharing contracts (PSCs). Current asset disclosures neither distinguish between global variations in oilfield ownership terms, nor on market risk implications for the value of oilfield assets. Importantly, we show that unlike concessions, reserve and production disclosures vary in response to oil price movements for PSC regimes. Our results highlight the need to differentiate PSC disclosures from concession fields, and to fully reflect price risks implicit in oilfield ownership contracts. We extend findings by Rajgopal [1999. Early evidence on the informativeness of the SEC's market risk disclosures: the case of commodity price risk exposure of oil and gas producers. The Accounting Review 74, 251-280] and propose refinements to capture market risk in financial reporting. (author)

Investor herds and oil prices evidence in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC equity markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Talat Ulussever

2017-09-01

Full Text Available This paper scrutinizes the effect of crude oil prices on herd behavior among investors in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC stock markets. Using firm level data from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain, Dubai and Abu Dhabi stock exchanges, we examine equity return dispersions within industry portfolios and test whether investor herds exist in these markets. We then assess whether crude oil price movements have any effect on the investment behavior of traders in the aforementioned markets. Our findings reveal significant evidence supporting herd behavior in all GCC equity markets with the exception of Oman and Qatar, more consistently during periods of market losses. Furthermore, we find significant oil price effects on herd behavior in these markets, particularly during periods of extreme positive changes in the price of oil. Our findings suggest that investors’ tendency to act as a herd in the said markets is significantly affected by the developments in the oil market.

The peak of oil production-Timings and market recognition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Almeida, Pedro de; Silva, Pedro D.

2009-01-01

Energy is essential for present societies. In particular, transportation systems depend on petroleum-based fuels. That world oil production is set to pass a peak is now a reasonably accepted concept, although its date is far from consensual. In this work, we analyze the true expectations of the oil market participants about the future availability of this fundamental energy source. We study the evolution through time of the curves of crude oil futures prices, and we conclude that the market participants, among them the crude oil producers, already expect a near-term peak of oil production. This agrees with many technical predictions for the date of peak production, including our own, that point to peak dates around the end of the present decade. If this scenario is confirmed, it can cause serious social and economical problems because societies will have little time to perform the necessary adjustments

An Empirical Analysis of the Price Discovery Function of Shanghai Fuel Oil Futures Market

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Wang Zhen; Liu Zhenhai; Chen Chao

2007-01-01

This paper analyzes the role of price discovery of Shanghai fuel oil futures market by using methods, such as unit root test, co-integration test, error correction model, Granger causality test, impulse-response function and variance decomposition. The results showed that there exists a strong relationship between the spot price of Huangpu fuel oil spot market and the futures price of Shanghai fuel oil futures market. In addition, the Shanghai fuel oil futures market exhibits a highly effective price discovery function.

Dynamics of the Asia-Pacific oil market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamaguchi, N.D.

1996-01-01

The Asia-Pacific could become the world's largest oil market with an estimated 10 million b/d new demand by 2010. At the same time less Asian crude will be available for the world market. Refinery expansion is likely to be insufficient and imports of refined products will rise. The Asia-Pacific market could be the world's largest middle distillate importer and a major centre of trade for essentially every other petroleum product and form of commercial energy. (Author)

Islamic versus conventional stock market and its co-movement with crude oil: a wavelet analysis

OpenAIRE

Kamarudin, Eka Azrin; Masih, Mansur

2015-01-01

Crude oil market plays an important role in economic development and its price changes give huge impact to the financial markets. In this paper, the relationships between crude oil and stock markets are examined. This study has selected Malaysian Islamic and conventional stock markets as a case study. Financialisation of crude oil and its frequent inclusion into investment portfolios warrant an analysis of the relationship between crude oil and stock market indices at various time scales or i...

SUSTAINABILITY OF SUSTAINABLE PALM OIL: A MARKET INTEGRATION ANALYSIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Diana Chalil

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Crude Palm Oil (CPO is the biggest consumed vegetable oil in the world. The increase in CPO production raises concern on the environmental impact even outside the producing countries. As a response to this matter, the EU has made a requirement to only import certified CPO (CSPO. India and China, the two biggest importers in the world, are less restrictive to the environmental issues, and their demands are more influenced by CPO price levels. These countries are the main export markets for Indonesia and Malaysia, the two biggest CPO exporters in the world. This research using monthly price data from the Netherlands, Germany, Italy, EU28, India, China, Indonesia and Malaysia. Market integrations are tested with Cointegration Test, Vector Error Correction Model and Seemingly Unrelated Regression. The results show that these markets are integrated, but European countries are unlikely to lead the price movement. Therefore, the concern on sustainable certification from the European countries still slowly spreads to other main importers, resulting in low absorption of CSPO. Keywords: market integration; sustainable palm oil; seemingly unrelated regression; vector Error correction model

The impacts of oil price shocks on stock market volatility: Evidence from the G7 countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bastianin, Andrea; Conti, Francesca; Manera, Matteo

2016-01-01

We study the effects of crude oil price shocks on the stock market volatility of the G7 countries. We identify the causes underlying oil price shocks and gauge the impacts that oil supply and oil demand innovations have on financial volatility. We show that stock market volatility does not respond to oil supply shocks. On the contrary, demand shocks impact significantly on the volatility of the G7 stock markets. Our results suggest that economic policies and financial regulation activities designed to mitigate the adverse effects of unexpected oil price movements should be designed by looking at the source of the oil price shocks. - Highlights: • Effects of oil price shocks on the stock market volatility of the G7 countries. • Econometric identification of the different causes of oil shocks. • Stock market volatility does not respond to oil supply shocks. • Demand shocks impact significantly on stock market volatility. • Policy measures should be designed by considering the source of oil shocks.

Oil sands market and transportation solutions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sandahl, R.

2004-01-01

This presentation outlined the immense potential of the western Canadian oil sands reserves. Recoverable reserves have been estimated at 180 billion barrels, with production forecasts estimated at 5 million barrels per day by 2030. Resource development is occurring at a time when the world's largest oil importer is increasing supplies through concern for security of supply. The second and third largest oil importers in the world are experiencing economic and energy demand growth. These factors underscore the motivation for rapid growth of the Western Canadian Oil Sands reserves. One of the challenges that must be addressed is to ensure that incremental markets for the increased production are accessed. Another challenge is to ensure adequate infrastructure in terms of pipeline capacity to ensure deliverability of the product. tabs., figs

Price dependence in the principal EU olive oil markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Emmanouilides, C.; Fousekis, P.; Grigoriadis, V.

2014-06-01

The objective of this paper is to assess the degree and the structure of price dependence in the principal EU olive oil markets (Spain, Italy and Greece). To this end, it utilizes monthly olive oil price data and the statistical tool of copulas. The empirical results suggest that prices are likely to boom together but not to crash together; this is especially true for the prices of the two most important players, Italy (importer) and Spain (exporter). The finding of asymmetric price co-movements implies that the three principal spatial olive oil markets in the EU cannot be thought of as one great pool. (Author)

THE FINANCIAL CRISIS AND THE EMERGING MARKETS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

LORENA POPESCU DUDUIALĂ

2014-06-01

Full Text Available The emerging markets emerge and develop in the larger context of the international financial market development "is a consequence of the needs expressed by investors and those who wish to place their financial capital." Thus, to achieve a certain level of saturation economic zones and the lack of attractiveness of gains obtainable in certain markets determine the migration of capital to areas that are or may become interesting in terms of the gains that are achieved by investing in these areas in conjunction minimizing market risk assumed.

NEB view of development potential and markets for heavy crude oil. [Canada

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Scotland, W A; Gutek, A M.H.

1977-01-01

The phased reduction in total crude oil and equivalent exports, from 911 Mpbd in 1974 to 465 Mbpd in 1976, has no doubt had a disruptive effect on the rate of development of heavy crude oil reserves. The effect could have become more series as total exports continued to drop. However, the separate licensing of heavy crude oil for export will allow heavy crude oil to enter available markets until the early 1980s. The construction of one or several upgrading facilities by the early 1980s, combined with growing domestic requirements for heavy crude oil feedstock, could make the disposition of heavy oil largely independent of the purchasing patterns of export markets. The prospect of increased market stability combined with increasing cash flows should provide an appropriate environment to optimize the role that heavy oil resources can play in Canada's future energy balance. (12 refs.)

Long-term prospects for oil market stability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Subroto, Dr [OPEC, Vienna (AT)

1989-10-01

OPEC recognize that energy consumption has its social costs and benefits, and that some energy sources impose fewer costs on society. We must consider the environmental implications of oil extraction. Our policies today should enable future generations to secure their energy needs, and OPEC is well-positioned to supply them. An inward-looking OPEC, distracted by internal wranglings and inconsistencies, cannot expect to be a stabilizing force in the oil markets. We have sought, therefore, to put our own house in order. Aside from the debate on depletion policy, a major strain on OPEC stability is the growing tendency towards regionalization in the world oil market. And the absence of universally acceptable quota allocation criteria means that OPEC may have to live with instability for some time to come, but this will be manageable in the short run. In the medium term, however, the call on OPEC oil in the 1990s is predicted to rise to a level commensurate with the sustainable capacities of member states. Producers and consumers have a common interest and should share a similar perspective on the inter-dependence between energy, the environment and economic development. (author).

Extreme Value Theory and Value at Risk. Application to oil market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marimoutou, Velayoudoum; Raggad, Bechir; Trabelsi, Abdelwahed

2009-01-01

Recent increases in energy prices, especially oil prices, have become a principal concern for consumers, corporations, and governments. Most analysts believe that oil price fluctuations have considerable consequences on economic activity. Oil markets have become relatively free, resulting in a high degree of oil-price volatility and generating radical changes to world energy and oil industries. Consequently, oil markets are naturally vulnerable to significant high price shifts. An example of such a case is the oil embargo crisis of 1973. In this newly created climate, protection against market risk has become a necessity. Value at Risk (VaR) measures risk exposure at a given probability level and is very important for risk management. Appealing aspects of Extreme Value Theory (EVT) have made convincing arguments for its use in managing energy price risks. In this paper, we model VaR for long and short trading positions in oil market by applying both unconditional and conditional EVT models to forecast Value at Risk. These models are compared to the performances of other well-known modelling techniques, such as GARCH, Historical Simulation and Filtered Historical Simulation. Both conditional EVT and Filtered Historical Simulation procedures offer a major improvement over the conventional methods. Furthermore, GARCH(1, 1)-t model may provide equally good results which are comparable to two combined procedures. Finally, our results confirm the importance of filtering process for the success of standard approaches. (author)

Extreme Value Theory and Value at Risk. Application to oil market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Marimoutou, Velayoudoum [GREQAM, Universite de la Mediterranee, Institut Francais de Pondichery (France); Raggad, Bechir; Trabelsi, Abdelwahed [BESTMOD, Institut Superieur de Gestion de Tunis (Tunisia)

2009-07-15

Recent increases in energy prices, especially oil prices, have become a principal concern for consumers, corporations, and governments. Most analysts believe that oil price fluctuations have considerable consequences on economic activity. Oil markets have become relatively free, resulting in a high degree of oil-price volatility and generating radical changes to world energy and oil industries. Consequently, oil markets are naturally vulnerable to significant high price shifts. An example of such a case is the oil embargo crisis of 1973. In this newly created climate, protection against market risk has become a necessity. Value at Risk (VaR) measures risk exposure at a given probability level and is very important for risk management. Appealing aspects of Extreme Value Theory (EVT) have made convincing arguments for its use in managing energy price risks. In this paper, we model VaR for long and short trading positions in oil market by applying both unconditional and conditional EVT models to forecast Value at Risk. These models are compared to the performances of other well-known modelling techniques, such as GARCH, Historical Simulation and Filtered Historical Simulation. Both conditional EVT and Filtered Historical Simulation procedures offer a major improvement over the conventional methods. Furthermore, GARCH(1, 1)-t model may provide equally good results which are comparable to two combined procedures. Finally, our results confirm the importance of filtering process for the success of standard approaches. (author)

Futures market efficiency diagnostics via temporal two-point correlations. Russian market case study

OpenAIRE

Kopytin, Mikhail; Kazantsev, Evgeniy

2013-01-01

Using a two-point correlation technique, we study emergence of market efficiency in the emergent Russian futures market by focusing on lagged correlations. The correlation strength of leader-follower effects in the lagged inter-market correlations on the hourly time frame is seen to be significant initially (2009-2011) but gradually goes down, as the erstwhile leader instruments -- crude oil, the USD/RUB exchange rate, and the Russian stock market index -- seem to lose the leader status. An i...

MARKET INFORMATIONAL EFFICIENCY TESTS AND ITS CRITICS: THE CASE OF EMERGENT CAPITAL MARKETS

OpenAIRE

OPREAN Camelia; BRATIAN Vasile

2012-01-01

Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) has attracted a considerable number of studies in empirical finance, particularly in determining the market efficiency of an emerging financial market. Conflicting and inconclusive outcomes have been generated by various existing studies in EMH. In addition, efficiency tests in the emerging financial markets are rarely definitive in reaching a conclusion about the issue. The paper proposes a critical analysis regarding the testing methods of the informational...

Oil and Gas Emergency Policy: New Zealand 2010 update

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2011-07-01

This publication provides a detailed look at the specific systems in New Zealand for responding to an oil supply crisis. In 2007, the IEA published ''Oil Supply Security: Emergency Response of IEA Countries''. Rather than waiting for the completion of the current review cycle to renew this full publication, the IEA will provide updates to the country chapters as these become available following the specific country's review. The aim of series of publications is to provide an overview of the IEA oil emergency response system and a detailed look at the specific systems in each IEA country for responding to an oil supply crisis. The 2007 publication represented the findings of a five year review cycle of the emergency response mechanisms in IEA member countries. Since the 2007 publication, the IEA has started a new cycle of reviews which now includes reviewing gas emergency policies.

The oil market in the 1980s -- a decade of decline

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shojai, S.; Katz, B.S.

1992-01-01

Part 1 of this volume presents a profile of the economic dislocations and hardships that resulted from the breakup of OPEC and non-OPEC nation oil exporters. The economies and economic plans of these nations were buffeted by the oil price decline. Slowed foreign exchange receipts, declining terms of trade, and fluctuating exchange rates all mitigated against oil suppliers. Part 2 investigates a range of oil importer responses to the economic ramifications of rising (1970s) and declining (1980s) oil prices. While the oil-importing Western nations adjusted to and benefited from the declining oil prices and oil suppliers bore the cost, there were also disparate economic effects on the developing world. Part 3 investigates the oil price decline fallout. The experiences of the 1980s permit an extended analysis of market conditions resulting from changes in the price of oil. Part 4 attempts to come to grips with the impact of price changes and future developments in the international world oil market

Oil Price and Equity Markets: Modeling Co-Movement and Conditional Value at Risk

OpenAIRE

Solvang, Jørn; Aarø, Thomas

2017-01-01

Master's thesis in Finance This paper studies the co-movement between oil prices and stock markets during the period 2006 – 2017 utilizing quantile regression. The studied stock indices are AEX, BOVESPA, CAC40, DAX30, EUROSTOXX50, FTSE100, SMI, S&P500 and TSX60, and the United States Oil Fund ETF represents the oil price. We investigate the co-movement and find a positive and significant co-movement between oil returns and stock market returns across quantiles for the stock market return d...

Relationships between oil price shocks and stock market: An empirical analysis from China

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cong, Ronggang; Wei, Yi-Ming; Jiao, Jian-Ling

2008-01-01

This paper investigates the interactive relationships between oil price shocks and Chinese stock market using multivariate vector auto-regression. Oil price shocks do not show statistically significant impact on the real stock returns of most Chinese stock market indices, except for manufacturing...... index and some oil companies. Some “important” oil price shocks depress oil company stock prices. Increase in oil volatility may increase the speculations in mining index and petrochemicals index, which raise their stock returns. Both the world oil price shocks and China oil price shocks can explain...

Site Selection and Resource Allocation of Oil Spill Emergency Base for Offshore Oil Facilities

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Yunbin; Liu, Jingxian; Wei, Lei; Wu, Weihuang

2018-02-01

Based on the analysis of the historical data about oil spill accidents in the Bohai Sea, this paper discretizes oil spilled source into a limited number of spill points. According to the probability of oil spill risk, the demand for salvage forces at each oil spill point is evaluated. Aiming at the specific location of the rescue base around the Bohai Sea, a cost-benefit analysis is conducted to determine the total cost of disasters for each rescue base. Based on the relationship between the oil spill point and the rescue site, a multi-objective optimization location model for the oil spill rescue base in the Bohai Sea region is established. And the genetic algorithm is used to solve the optimization problem, and determine the emergency rescue base optimization program and emergency resources allocation ratio.

Near-term world oil markets : economics, politics and prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dwarkin, J.

2002-01-01

This paper discusses the three main factors that will determine how OPEC oil production will impact on energy markets. OPEC reassured the market in September 2001, following the terrorist attack in New York that it would not cut oil production, but by December 2001, OPEC was threatening that it would cut production unless many key non-OPEC producers collaborated to shore up prices. On January 1, 2002, OPEC members went ahead with a quota reduction, based on pledges of cuts from the non-OPEC oil exporting countries. World economies, oil demand, and the path which the U.S. economy will take during 2002 is critical in determining what happens next in terms of oil production from OPEC. Another important factor is knowing whether non-OPEC producers will actually cut output to a significant extent. The most critical factor will be the response by OPEC members if non-OPEC exporting countries do not keep their promise

Extreme value theory in emerging markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anđelić Goran

2010-01-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates the performance of extreme value theory (EVT with the daily stock index returns of four different emerging markets. The research covers the sample representing the Serbian (BELEXline, Croatian (CROBEX, Slovenian (SBI20, and Hungarian (BUX stock indexes using the data from January 2006 - September 2009. In the paper a performance test was carried out for the success of application of the extreme value theory in estimating and forecasting of the tails of daily return distribution of the analyzed stock indexes. Therefore the main goal is to determine whether EVT adequately estimates and forecasts the tails (2.5% and 5% at the tail of daily stock index return distribution in the emerging markets of Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia, and Hungary. The applied methodology during the research includes analysis, synthesis and statistical/mathematical methods. Research results according to estimated Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD parameters indicate the necessity of applying market risk estimation methods, i.e. extreme value theory (EVT in the framework of a broader analysis of investment processes in emerging markets.

Market Efficiency of Oil Spot and Futures: A Stochastic Dominance Approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

H.H. Lean (Hooi Hooi); M.J. McAleer (Michael); W.-K. Wong (Wing-Keung)

2010-01-01

textabstractThis paper examines the market efficiency of oil spot and futures prices by using a stochastic dominance (SD) approach. As there is no evidence of an SD relationship between oil spot and futures, we conclude that there is no arbitrage opportunity between these two markets, and that both

Time Varying Market Integration and Expected Rteurns in Emerging Markets

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Jong, F.C.J.M.; de Roon, F.A.

2001-01-01

We use a simple model in which the expected returns in emerging markets depend on their systematic risk as measured by their beta relative to the world portfolio as well as on the level of integration in that market.The level of integration is a time-varying variable that depends on the market value

Forecasting volatility of crude oil markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, Sang Hoon; Kang, Sang-Mok; Yoon, Seong-Min

2009-01-01

This article investigates the efficacy of a volatility model for three crude oil markets - Brent, Dubai, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - with regard to its ability to forecast and identify volatility stylized facts, in particular volatility persistence or long memory. In this context, we assess persistence in the volatility of the three crude oil prices using conditional volatility models. The CGARCH and FIGARCH models are better equipped to capture persistence than are the GARCH and IGARCH models. The CGARCH and FIGARCH models also provide superior performance in out-of-sample volatility forecasts. We conclude that the CGARCH and FIGARCH models are useful for modeling and forecasting persistence in the volatility of crude oil prices. (author)

Forecasting volatility of crude oil markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kang, Sang Hoon [Department of Business Administration, Gyeongsang National University, Jinju, 660-701 (Korea); Kang, Sang-Mok; Yoon, Seong-Min [Department of Economics, Pusan National University, Busan, 609-735 (Korea)

2009-01-15

This article investigates the efficacy of a volatility model for three crude oil markets - Brent, Dubai, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - with regard to its ability to forecast and identify volatility stylized facts, in particular volatility persistence or long memory. In this context, we assess persistence in the volatility of the three crude oil prices using conditional volatility models. The CGARCH and FIGARCH models are better equipped to capture persistence than are the GARCH and IGARCH models. The CGARCH and FIGARCH models also provide superior performance in out-of-sample volatility forecasts. We conclude that the CGARCH and FIGARCH models are useful for modeling and forecasting persistence in the volatility of crude oil prices. (author)

Multivariate FIGARCH and long memory process: evidence of oil price markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nadhem Selmi

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Oil price markets can benefit from a better considerate of how shocks can affect volatility through time. This study assesses the impact of structural changes and outliers on volatility persistence of two crude oil markets WTI and Brent oil price between January 1, 1996 and March 17, 2014. First, we identify the FIGARCH process proposed by Baillie et al. (1996 [Baillie, R.T., Bollerslev, T., & Mikkelsen, H.O., (1996, Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 74, 3-30.] and investigate some of its statistical proprieties and then incorporate this information into the volatility modelling. We also show that outliers can bias the estimation of the persistence of the volatility. Taking into account outliers on the volatility modelling process improve the understanding of volatility in crude oil markets.

Economics of palm oil marketing in Owerri, Imo State, Nigeria ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Economics of palm oil marketing in Owerri, Imo State, Nigeria. ... Data on trades socio economic factors, marketing cost and marketing margin were collected from 80 traders randomly selected from the ... EMAIL FULL TEXT EMAIL FULL TEXT

Bond Portfolio Allocations in South Africa Emerging Markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jinghua Wang

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Over the past fifty years, economic growth in emerging markets has been supported by investments in capital and technology from the developed world. The benefit of this development for the emerging markets, as measured by growth in income, employment, and wealth, is immediately apparent. There have also been significant advantages for the developed world through opportunities for higher risk adjusted returns from investments in emerging markets. This study explores the benefits of the diversification of global government bond portfolio, and provides complete performance evaluations of DMs with or without South Africa emerging market (SAEM bonds. The study examines the benefits of inclusion of SAEM bonds in DMs, the degrees of financial integration among the research markets, the relative bond returns of dynamic factor models with time-varying coefficients and the robust tests of bond portfolio performance between DMs with SAEM and bond index. The results of this study provide important implications for global investors by identifying diversification gains in SAEM.  Keywords: African Bond Market, Portfolio Diversification

Oil and Gas Emergency Policy: Czech Republic 2010 update

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2011-07-01

This publication provides a detailed look at the specific systems in the Czech Republic for responding to an oil supply crisis. In 2007, the IEA published ''Oil Supply Security: Emergency Response of IEA Countries''. Rather than waiting for the completion of the current review cycle to renew this full publication, the IEA will provide updates to the country chapters as these become available following the specific country's review. The aim of series of publications is to provide an overview of the IEA oil emergency response system and a detailed look at the specific systems in each IEA country for responding to an oil supply crisis. The 2007 publication represented the findings of a five year review cycle of the emergency response mechanisms in IEA member countries. Since the 2007 publication, the IEA has started a new cycle of reviews which now includes reviewing gas emergency policies.

Oil and Gas Emergency Policy: United Kingdom 2010 update

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2011-07-01

This publication provides a detailed look at the specific systems in the United Kingdom for responding to an oil supply crisis. In 2007, the IEA published ''Oil Supply Security: Emergency Response of IEA Countries''. Rather than waiting for the completion of the current review cycle to renew this full publication, the IEA will provide updates to the country chapters as these become available following the specific country's review. The aim of series of publications is to provide an overview of the IEA oil emergency response system and a detailed look at the specific systems in each IEA country for responding to an oil supply crisis. The 2007 publication represented the findings of a five year review cycle of the emergency response mechanisms in IEA member countries. Since the 2007 publication, the IEA has started a new cycle of reviews which now includes reviewing gas emergency policies.

Market for oil and gas assets defined in survey

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taggart, L.; Murry, D.A.

1991-01-01

This paper reports that hundreds of companies are currently active in the oil and gas acquisition and disposition marketplace, but unfortunately, the entire sale process within the industry continues to operate inefficiently. The mechanism for selling oil and gas properties in this secondary market - as used here, a term that excludes initial investments in oil and gas assets and sales of drilling program shares - is sort of catch-as-catch- can. Identifying who is seeking what type of property at any time is difficult, bordering on guesswork. A recent survey of 186 company representatives and individuals, who declared themselves as in the market, disclosed some of this information at a point in time

Oil and Gas Emergency Policy: Slovak Republic 2011 update

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2011-07-01

In 2007, the IEA published ''Oil Supply Security: Emergency Response of IEA Countries''. This publication provides an overview of the IEA oil emergency response system and a detailed look at the specific systems in each IEA country for responding to an oil supply crisis. This publication represented the findings of a five year review cycle of the emergency response mechanisms in IEA member countries. Since the 2007 publication, the IEA has started a new cycle of reviews which now includes reviewing gas emergency policies. Rather than waiting for the completion of the current review cycle to renew this publication, the IEA will make available updates to the country chapters as these become available following the country's review.

Analyzing and forecasting volatility spillovers, asymmetries and hedging in major oil markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang, Chia-Lin; McAleer, Michael; Tansuchat, Roengchai

2010-01-01

Crude oil price volatility has been analyzed extensively for organized spot, forward and futures markets for well over a decade, and is crucial for forecasting volatility and Value-at-Risk (VaR). There are four major benchmarks in the international oil market, namely West Texas Intermediate (USA), Brent (North Sea), Dubai/Oman (Middle East), and Tapis (Asia-Pacific), which are likely to be highly correlated. This paper analyses the volatility spillover and asymmetric effects across and within the four markets, using three multivariate GARCH models, namely the constant conditional correlation (CCC), vector ARMA-GARCH (VARMA-GARCH) and vector ARMA-asymmetric GARCH (VARMA-AGARCH) models. A rolling window approach is used to forecast the 1-day ahead conditional correlations. The paper presents evidence of volatility spillovers and asymmetric effects on the conditional variances for most pairs of series. In addition, the forecast conditional correlations between pairs of crude oil returns have both positive and negative trends. Moreover, the optimal hedge ratios and optimal portfolio weights of crude oil across different assets and market portfolios are evaluated in order to provide important policy implications for risk management in crude oil markets. (author)

Analyzing and forecasting volatility spillovers, asymmetries and hedging in major oil markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chang, Chia-Lin [Department of Applied Economics National Chung Hsing University Taichung, 250 Kuo Kuang Road, National Chung Hsing University Taichung 402 (China); McAleer, Michael [Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam (Netherlands); Tinbergen Institute (Netherlands); Tansuchat, Roengchai [Faculty of Economics, Maejo University (Thailand)

2010-11-15

Crude oil price volatility has been analyzed extensively for organized spot, forward and futures markets for well over a decade, and is crucial for forecasting volatility and Value-at-Risk (VaR). There are four major benchmarks in the international oil market, namely West Texas Intermediate (USA), Brent (North Sea), Dubai/Oman (Middle East), and Tapis (Asia-Pacific), which are likely to be highly correlated. This paper analyses the volatility spillover and asymmetric effects across and within the four markets, using three multivariate GARCH models, namely the constant conditional correlation (CCC), vector ARMA-GARCH (VARMA-GARCH) and vector ARMA-asymmetric GARCH (VARMA-AGARCH) models. A rolling window approach is used to forecast the 1-day ahead conditional correlations. The paper presents evidence of volatility spillovers and asymmetric effects on the conditional variances for most pairs of series. In addition, the forecast conditional correlations between pairs of crude oil returns have both positive and negative trends. Moreover, the optimal hedge ratios and optimal portfolio weights of crude oil across different assets and market portfolios are evaluated in order to provide important policy implications for risk management in crude oil markets. (author)

Developing new markets for oil sands products

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crandall, G.

2004-01-01

This paper presents a review by Purvin and Gertz of western Canadian crude oil supply. This energy consulting firm provides advise to the energy sector. It suggests that oil sands production will surpass declining conventional production. Oil sands supply includes bitumen, synthetic crude oil (SCO), and diluent. It is forecasted that oil sands will increase from 42 per cent of western supply in 2002 to 78 per cent in 2015. The potential of Alberta's oil sands was discussed along with a recent study of refined products and petrochemicals from bitumen. Upgrading, refining and petrochemical case studies were presented. The author examined if a Canadian oil sands upgrading project with high capital costs can be competitive with competing projects in the United States and internationally. In addition to supply and demand issues, the presentation examined infrastructure capability and market potential in the United States. The economic potential and risks of preferred business cases compared to upgrading to SCO were also evaluated. 15 figs

Building Innovation Subsidiaries in Emerging Markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pogrebnyakov, Nicolai; Kristensen, Jonas D.

2011-01-01

Innovation subsidiaries increasingly follow manufacturing subsidiaries into emerging markets. Compared to well-established Western economies, emerging markets present unique challenges for the development of innovation management capabilities at subsidiaries. This paper distinguishes between...... multinational pharmaceutical company, Novo Nordisk. Lessons learned include assigning the subsidiary responsibility for a self-contained piece of work while maintaining a central R&D function, balancing local and in-company management, using local innovation talent, and educating new hires into the company...

Relationships between oil price shocks and stock market: An empirical analysis from China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cong Ronggang; Wei Yiming; Jiao Jianlin; Fan Ying

2008-01-01

This paper investigates the interactive relationships between oil price shocks and Chinese stock market using multivariate vector auto-regression. Oil price shocks do not show statistically significant impact on the real stock returns of most Chinese stock market indices, except for manufacturing index and some oil companies. Some 'important' oil price shocks depress oil company stock prices. Increase in oil volatility may increase the speculations in mining index and petrochemicals index, which raise their stock returns. Both the world oil price shocks and China oil price shocks can explain much more than interest rates for manufacturing index

The influence of global benchmark oil prices on the regional oil spot market in multi-period evolution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jiang, Meihui; An, Haizhong; Jia, Xiaoliang; Sun, Xiaoqi

2017-01-01

Crude benchmark oil prices play a crucial role in energy policy and investment management. Previous research confined itself to studying the static, uncertain, short- or long-term relationship between global benchmark oil prices, ignoring the time-varying, quantitative, dynamic nature of the relationship during various stages of oil price volatility. This paper proposes a novel approach combining grey relation analysis, optimization wavelet analysis, and Bayesian network modeling to explore the multi-period evolution of the dynamic relationship between global benchmark oil prices and regional oil spot price. We analyze the evolution of the most significant decision-making risk periods, as well as the combined strategy-making reference oil prices and the corresponding periods during various stages of volatility. Furthermore, we determine that the network evolution of the quantitative lead/lag relationship between different influences of global benchmark oil prices shows a multi-period evolution phenomenon. For policy makers and market investors, our combined model can provide decision-making periods with the lowest expected risk and decision-making target reference oil prices and corresponding weights for strategy adjustment and market arbitrage. This study provides further information regarding period weights of target reference oil prices, facilitating efforts to perform multi-agent energy policy and intertemporal market arbitrage. - Highlights: • Multi-period evolution of the influence of different oil prices is discovered. • We combined grey relation analysis, optimization wavelet and Bayesian network. • The intensity of volatility, synchronization, and lead/lag effects are analyzed. • The target reference oil prices and corresponding period weights are determined.

Elasticity and competitiveness of Indonesia’s palm oil export in India market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Awan Setya Dewanta

2016-10-01

Full Text Available This study examines the elasticity and competitiveness of Indonsia’s palm oil export in the India market, 1990 -2014. The methods used are Error Correction Model (ECM and Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA approach. The results shows that the price is inelastic in short-term but it is elastic in long-term. The income and exchange rate are elastic in the long-term. There is also a decline in competitiveness in the market India. These findings also demonstrate that palm oil is normal goods and can be easily substituted with the same products of other countries or other vegetable oils. It threatens the Indonesian palm oil competitiveness in the Indian market.

Technical and economic framework for market enhancement of shale oil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bunger, J.W.; Devineni, A.V.

1992-01-01

By now it is apparent that production of syncrude from shale oil will not be economically viable as long as there is a stable and reasonably-priced supply of petroleum. The costs and financial risks of producing syncrude from oil shale, in the face of price constraints imposed by petroleum markets, are too high to warrant private investment. A possible solution is to develop commodity and specialty products from shale oil which command a high market value. In this fashion, the economics are partially uncoupled from petroleum and an opportunity for a greater price/cost differential is provided

Humps in the volatility structure of the crude oil futures market: New evidence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chiarella, Carl; Kang, Boda; Nikitopoulos, Christina Sklibosios; Tô, Thuy-Duong

2013-01-01

This paper analyses the volatility structure of commodity derivatives markets. The model encompasses hump-shaped, unspanned stochastic volatility, which entails a finite-dimensional affine model for the commodity futures curve and quasi-analytical prices for options on commodity futures. Using an extensive database of crude oil futures and futures options spanning 21 years, we find the presence of hump-shaped, partially spanned stochastic volatility in the crude oil market. The hump shaped feature is more pronounced when the market is more volatile, and delivers better pricing as well as hedging performance under various dynamic factor hedging schemes. - Highlights: • This paper analyses the volatility structure of commodity derivatives markets. • 21-years of data on crude oil futures and futures options is used. • The crude oil futures market has hump-shaped, unspanned stochastic volatility. • The hump shaped feature is more pronounced when the market is more volatile. • Hump shape delivers better pricing and hedging compared to exponential decay

Turmoil on the International Oil Markets. Getting Used to Production Capacity Constraints

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ten Kate, W.; Van Geuns, L.

2009-01-01

In 2008 the world experienced a prelude to the new realities of the international oil market. These new realities include a tight balance between supply and demand, the rapidly increased cost of the marginal barrel and the extreme price volatility. This price volatility has driven prices up $50 a barrel in the space of 5 months, only to drop $50 in 2 months after the July 14 peak of $147 a barrel when consumers began to seriously drop out of the market and inventories were drawn down. After the extreme downward correction, the crisis on the international capital markets led to dim expectations about economic growth for the rest of the year and 2009, and this also played a role. However, prices are expected to rebound again, reflecting the fundamental upward shift of oil prices from an average of about $70-80 a barrel to about $110-120 a barrel. This fundamental upward shift is due to a combination of so-called 'underground' and 'above ground' conditions. The 'underground' problems include the size, depth and geological complexities of new oil fields that are driving up the cost per barrel. These complex oil fields need to be taken into production, since 'above ground' problems limit International Oil Companies' (IOCs) ability to access the lower-cost oil in producing countries. The 'above ground' problems slow the pace of development of medium-cost oil in the largest producing countries in the Middle East and Russia. Despite the expectation of a continued demand for oil, oil exporting countries are concerned about the security of demand, and adapt their development plans accordingly. Moreover, with the increased prices of the last few years and the resulting increase in oil revenues, the management of the monetarised oil wealth has become a concern as well. The value of the dollar has been slipping and oil exporting countries tried to match this depreciation by increasing oil prices. China's rise as an important manufacturer in the world, with the accompanying

Russian oil prices: courting the world market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khartukov, E.M.

1995-01-01

The export and oil pricing of Russian crude was discussed. Russian crude and oil product exports are not yet wholly competitive with world oil markets. It was suggested that to do so, would be neither desirable nor actually possible at present. The reason for this is related to Russia's export duties regime and Russia's trade with its neighbouring countries which include the former Soviet republics. In the first half of 1995, the average border price of crude destined for those countries was US$75.04/tonne as opposed to US$114.77/tonne for crude exported to 'far-abroad', hard-currency markets. A breakdown of Russia's export duties for liquid fuels and a typical breakdown of export and domestic prices for Russian oil was provided. Russian crude is considerably under-priced mainly because of the poor state of the national refining industry which is in need of radical modernization. It was suggested that instead of globalization, it would be more appropriate to redirect the priorities of Russian energy policy towards defining optimal use of Russia's available energy potential, and rationalizing its domestic price structure first, which is the root cause of the national price problem. 5 refs., 5 tabs., 2 figs

Golden age: marketers extract the most from oil and natural gas trade

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lorenz, A.

2000-04-01

The complexity of the oil and natural gas markets, the complex factors which interact to produce the price of oil or natural gas on any given day, and the role of marketers in this high stakes game are discussed. While oil and natural gas prices are very good today compared to the low prices through much of the 1990s, marketers are now concerned about the ability of Canadian fields to produce enough to fill the expanded pipelines and meet the rising demand. As the oil and natural gas industry in Canada is moving from a pipeline-constrained environment to a resource-constrained environment, the question of declining reserves in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin and the resulting surplus in pipeline capacity is one of the most serious issues facing industry in the immediate future. This is especially true of natural gas where the cost of transportation, which can be as high as 30 per cent, is one of major importance to gas marketers. Locking in prices or allowing prices to float can make the difference between huge losses or gains depending on the interplay of the various factor that influence price fluctuations. Examples of how decisions about oil and gas prices are made, and the various outcomes that may result from marketer decisions are described to illustrate the vagaries of the natural gas market.

Golden age: marketers extract the most from oil and natural gas trade

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lorenz, A.

2000-01-01

The complexity of the oil and natural gas markets, the complex factors which interact to produce the price of oil or natural gas on any given day, and the role of marketers in this high stakes game are discussed. While oil and natural gas prices are very good today compared to the low prices through much of the 1990s, marketers are now concerned about the ability of Canadian fields to produce enough to fill the expanded pipelines and meet the rising demand. As the oil and natural gas industry in Canada is moving from a pipeline-constrained environment to a resource-constrained environment, the question of declining reserves in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin and the resulting surplus in pipeline capacity is one of the most serious issues facing industry in the immediate future. This is especially true of natural gas where the cost of transportation, which can be as high as 30 per cent, is one of major importance to gas marketers. Locking in prices or allowing prices to float can make the difference between huge losses or gains depending on the interplay of the various factor that influence price fluctuations. Examples of how decisions about oil and gas prices are made, and the various outcomes that may result from marketer decisions are described to illustrate the vagaries of the natural gas market

China Likely to Resume Oil Futures Soon

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Chang Tianle

2002-01-01

@@ China is likely to resume operation of its oil futures this year, according to reports from the media about a futures conference organized by the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) in late May. "As China has become an important oil producer and consumer,the demand for our own oil futures market emerges,which will help China oil-related enterprises hedge risks," said Li Ruisheng, vice president of PetroChina's refining and marketing company.

Testing the weak-form efficiency of the WTI crude oil futures market

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Xie, Wen-Jie; Zhou, Wei-Xing

2014-07-01

The weak-form efficiency of energy futures markets has long been studied and empirical evidence suggests controversial conclusions. In this work, nonparametric methods are adopted to estimate the Hurst indexes of the WTI crude oil futures prices (1983-2012) and a strict statistical test in the spirit of bootstrapping is put forward to verify the weak-form market efficiency hypothesis. The results show that the crude oil futures market is efficient when the whole period is considered. When the whole series is divided into three sub-series separated by the outbreaks of the Gulf War and the Iraq War, it is found that the Gulf War reduced the efficiency of the market. If the sample is split into two sub-series based on the signing date of the North American Free Trade Agreement, the market is found to be inefficient in the sub-periods during which the Gulf War broke out. The same analysis on short-time series in moving windows shows that the market is inefficient only when some turbulent events occur, such as the oil price crash in 1985, the Gulf war, and the oil price crash in 2008.

Business continuity management in emerging markets: the case of Jordan.

Science.gov (United States)

Sawalha, Ihab H; Anchor, John R

2012-01-01

Despite their considerable growth in last few decades, emerging markets (EM) face numerous risks that have the potential to slow down or obstruct their development. Three main issues are discussed in this paper: first, the risks facing organisations operating in emerging markets and Jordan in particular; secondly, the role of business continuity management (BCM) in emerging markets; and thirdly, potential factors that underpin the role of BCM in emerging markets. These issues are significant, as they represent the role of BCM in highly dynamic and fast changing business environments. The paper provides a discussion of the significance of BCM in reducing or preventing risks facing organisations operating in emerging markets, especially those in Jordan.

Technological trends and market perspectives for production of microbial oils rich in omega-3.

Science.gov (United States)

Finco, Ana Maria de Oliveira; Mamani, Luis Daniel Goyzueta; Carvalho, Júlio Cesar de; de Melo Pereira, Gilberto Vinícius; Thomaz-Soccol, Vanete; Soccol, Carlos Ricardo

2017-08-01

In recent years, foods that contain omega-3 lipids have emerged as important promoters of human health. These lipids are essential for the functional development of the brain and retina, and reduction of the risk of cardiovascular and Alzheimer's diseases. The global market for omega-3 production, particularly docosahexaenoic acid (DHA), saw a large expansion in the last decade due to the increasing use of this lipid as an important component of infant food formulae and supplements. The production of omega-3 lipids from fish and vegetable oil sources has some drawbacks, such as complex purification procedures, unwanted contamination by marine pollutants, reduction or even extinction of several species of fish, and aspects related to sustainability. A promising alternative system for the production of omega-3 lipids is from microbial metabolism of yeast, fungi, or microalgae. The aim of this review is to discuss the various omega-3 sources in the context of the global demand and market potential for these bioactive compounds. To summarize, it is clear that fish and vegetable oil sources will not be sufficient to meet the future needs of the world population. The biotechnological production of single-cell oil comes as a sustainable alternative capable of supplementing the global demand for omega-3, causing less environmental impact.

Eleventh CERI [Canadian Energy Research Inst.] international oil and gas markets conference

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-01-01

At a conference on international oil and gas markets, papers were presented on world oil and gas markets; energy policies; regulatory policies; supply and demand scenarios; environmental issues; the markets and industries in individual countries such as the former Soviet Union, USA, Canada, and the United Kingdom; business strategies; geopolitics of energy; and coalbed methane supplies. Separate abstracts have been prepared for 22 papers from this conference

Marketing opportunities and challenges for Canada's oil sands industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-01-01

This report demonstrated that effective marketing of Canadian oil sands products has been vital to the success of the industry in the past. Future success was expected to depend on having efficient transportation systems for the industry's products, unrestricted access to markets, and a range of products can competitively meet the needs of specific markets and customs. 9 ills

Are Foreign Institutional Investors Good for Emerging Markets?

OpenAIRE

Frenkel, Michael; Menkhoff, Lukas

2003-01-01

Portfolio flows channeled via institutional investors were the most dynamic capital flows to emerging markets in the 1990s. We use an asymmetric information framework to derive five propositions, to integrate empirical evidence and to suggest policy implications. Opaque information in emerging markets hinders foreign market entrants. Moreover, following financial opening, institutional investors can worsen the position of local investors due to unintentionally creating unbalanced diversificat...

Marketing BTUs: Gas, electricity lead oil in innovation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krapels, E.N.

1996-01-01

The transformation in relations between energy providers and users--powered by reform of electric utilities and by continuation of natural gas deregulation--is challenging several fundamental precepts of how oil companies managed their deregulation. In the wake of the price decontrol completed by the Reagan administration in 1981, oil companies (1) retreated from national business structures, (2) focused on limited range core businesses, and (3) provided minimal oil price risk management services for their customers. By contrast, the electric and natural gas industry is consolidating for the purpose of playing a role in ever-larger markets, diversifying its products and services, and providing innovative hedging instruments to itself as well as its customers. From Enron, one can purchase physical and paper energy, delivered in whatever form desired, nationwide and internationally, with or without mechanisms to manage price risk. What will impede the newly integrated energy companies--which are composite electric plus natural gas firms--from also delivering products and services now rendered by the oil companies? Could utilities organize gasoline consumers better than oil companies? If the Price Club can sell gasoline at 10 cents below market, why can't the new energy companies do so? The paper discusses what consumers want, procurement and costs, and innovations and lessons

Workshop Papers: Directions and Marketing of Synthetic Crude Oil and Heavy Oil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-01-01

This workshop was organized by the National Centre for Upgrading Technology in an effort to bring together experts from the various sectors of the petroleum industry to outline their views of the directions that the synthetic crude oil market will pursue over the next decade and into the 21. century. The motivation for the Workshop came from the many announcements during 1996 and 1997 by several Canadian oil companies about plans to initiate or expand their heavy oil and synthetic crude production. During the same period, at least one US refiner also announced plans to revamp an existing refinery to allow it to process Canadian heavy oil and synthetic crude. The workshop was organized to review these plans and to discuss such questions as (1) Would the selected technologies be the familiar carbon rejection or hydrogen addition methods, or would there be radical advanced technologies? (2) Would the products be fully or partially upgraded? (3) How would they be processed in the refinery? (4) Would there be a market? This collection of papers or viewgraphs comprise all the formal presentations given at the workshop. The final section also contains the edited notes recorded during the question and answer periods. refs., tabs., figs

Agricultural and oil commodities: price transmission and market integration between US and Italy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Franco Rosa

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Purpose of this article it to get some evidences of market interaction between United States and Italy using the time series analysis of spot prices spanning from January 1999 to May 2012 for crude oil and three ag-commodities: wheat, corn and soybean. These crops have been selected for their relevance in ag-commodity exchanges between US and Italy markets. The integration between US and Italy agricultural markets is hypothesized for the consistent volume of crop traded between these two countries while the price transmission is related to the leading price signals of the CBT (Chicago Board of Trade. The integration between oil and ag-commodity markets is suggested both by the large use of energy intensive inputs, (fertilizer, seed, machinery in production of these ag-commodities, and their use in biofuel production. The results suggest: a for US market the evidence of market integration between crude oil and US ag-commodities; b for Italy the integration with US ag-commodity markets and less evidence of integration with the oil market. These results are valuable information both for the agents and policy makers contributing to improve the information accuracy to predict the price movements used by marketing operators for their strategies and policy makers to set up policies to re-establish conditions of market efficiency and allocate these ag-commodities in alternative market channels.

Identifying and Managing Engineering Design Requirements for Emerging Markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Li, Xuemeng

, especially for those companies originally from developed markets, to acquire an in-depth understanding of particular design requirements in emerging markets in order to adapt both company products and approaches in such contexts. Prior studies on the identification and management of design requirements have...... predominantly been conducted in the context of developed countries and relatively affluent markets. Emerging markets are distinct from developed markets in terms of numerous contextual factors, e.g., regulatory environments and competitive landscapes. These factors influence the requirement identification...... attention. There is a need for an overview of different perspectives in requirement identification for manufacturing companies and their corresponding assessments in the context of emerging markets. Therefore, this research project is motivated to 1) investigate the process of identifying and managing...

Forecasting volatility and spillovers in crude oil spot, forward and future markets

NARCIS (Netherlands)

C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael); R. Tansuchat (Roengchai)

2009-01-01

textabstractCrude oil price volatility has been analyzed extensively for organized spot, forward and futures markets for well over a decade, and is crucial for forecasting volatility and Value-at-Risk (VaR). There are four major benchmarks in the international oil market, namely West Texas

Panorama 2013 - The oil market in 2012 and forward trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maisonnier, Guy

2012-11-01

As predicted at the beginning of 2012, the past year has proved fairly similar to 2011, focused more on geopolitical risk than the economic downturn, leading to a high oil price, close to the 2011 price ($110 for Brent). For the future, caution is called for: past performance is no guarantee of future developments... the old saying certainly applies to the oil market. While tension and even runaway oil prices remain a credible scenario for geopolitical reasons, a marked decline in the coming years is also a possibility. Faced with these extreme trends, the market reached an unstable balance at $110 for Brent (WTI around $95). (author)

Oil and Gas Emergency Policy: Chile 2012 update

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2012-09-06

Chile has experienced several serious energy supply incidents over the last decade, including major droughts, a sustained gas supply cut from Argentina (since 2004), and a major earthquake in early 2010 which affected electricity networks and refineries, and caused several black-outs. Due to Chile's unique and sinuous geography - it runs 4 300 kilometres from North to South and only 175 kms from East to West- the country's energy markets are regionally disjointed, particularly as the regional gas and electricity grids are not connected. In the arid North, energy demand is dominated by the mining industry, and operates based on a separate thermal-based Sistema Interconectado Norte Grande (SING) electricity grid. The more densely-populated central region (including Santiago) operates on the more hydro-dependent Sistema Interconectado Central (SIC) electricity grid. The southernmost, hydro-rich regions of the country are not connected to the rest of Chile in terms of electricity and gas. The following report is based on an IEA Emergency Response Assessment carried out in 2010 and 2011 which looked specifically at Chile's capacity to respond to short-term emergencies in oil, gas and electricity.

Oil and Gas Emergency Policy: Chile 2012 update

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2012-09-06

Chile has experienced several serious energy supply incidents over the last decade, including major droughts, a sustained gas supply cut from Argentina (since 2004), and a major earthquake in early 2010 which affected electricity networks and refineries, and caused several black-outs. Due to Chile's unique and sinuous geography - it runs 4 300 kilometres from North to South and only 175 kms from East to West- the country's energy markets are regionally disjointed, particularly as the regional gas and electricity grids are not connected. In the arid North, energy demand is dominated by the mining industry, and operates based on a separate thermal-based Sistema Interconectado Norte Grande (SING) electricity grid. The more densely-populated central region (including Santiago) operates on the more hydro-dependent Sistema Interconectado Central (SIC) electricity grid. The southernmost, hydro-rich regions of the country are not connected to the rest of Chile in terms of electricity and gas. The following report is based on an IEA Emergency Response Assessment carried out in 2010 and 2011 which looked specifically at Chile's capacity to respond to short-term emergencies in oil, gas and electricity.

The Influence of Emerging Markets on the Pharmaceutical Industry.

Science.gov (United States)

Tannoury, Maya; Attieh, Zouhair

2017-01-01

Emerging markets represent an exceptional opportunity for the pharmaceutical industry. Although a precise definition is not yet available, economists define emerging markets as developing prosperous countries in which investment is expected to result in higher income despite high risks. Qualifying a market as emerging is not merely based on the economic status of the country, but also on several criteria that render the definition applicable to each country. Jim O'Neil, retired chairman of asset management at Goldman Sachs, identified leading economies of emerging markets: Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC) and later Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) and then Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, and Turkey (MIST), which followed years later as the second tier of nations. Sales of the pharmaceutical markets in BRICS and MIST countries doubled in 5 years, reaching a market share of approximately 20%. The shift toward these new markets has been attributed to the large populations, growing prosperity, and increasing life expectancy in BRICS and MIST countries. In addition, companies are experiencing flattened growth of developed markets, expiration of patents leading to the up-selling of less expensive generic drugs, and tight regulations enforced in mature markets. Particular attention must therefore be given to these emerging markets. The strategies adopted by pharmaceutical companies that want to expand in these markets must be tailored to the pace of development of each country. These countries need drugs against infectious diseases and communicable diseases such as sexually transmitted diseases. They are readily exploitable territories for the innovative products of pharmaceuticals. Nevertheless, with the increase in wealth and longevity, a change of lifestyle is occurring. These changes accompany a shift in disease patterns. A disproportionally fast rise in the incidence of noncommunicable diseases such as cardiovascular illnesses, diabetes

Crude oil pricing report, issue 89, December 1992

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-01-01

This report is prepared by the Canadian Oil Markets and Emergency Planning Division (COMEP), Energy, Mines and Resources Canada. It provides a reference for domestic and imported crude oil prices in Canadian markets and illustrates the competitive position of Canadian crude in the U.S. market. The information in this report is in part based on the Crude Oil Pricing Survey (COPS), conducted by COMEP, of Canadian refiners' domestic crude oil purchases, refinery receipts, imports and data from trade publications as well as industry pricing bulletins. 8 tabs

An examination of consumer profiles across brands in emerging markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Truong, Oanh; Faulkner, Margaret; Mueller Loose, Simone

2012-01-01

There is generalised evidence that consumer profiles seldom differ between brands across many product categories in developed markets. However, market segmentation based on consumer characteristics continues to be a common marketing tactic, especially in international marketing context. This study...... markets. Deviations are found across whisky brands, which are related to brand distribution and affordability. These potentially constitute boundary conditions for the discovered empirical generalisations. The key implication for marketing practitioners is that market segmentation using consumer...... examines consumer profiles in emerging markets to see if any difference exists. We examined 190 brands in nine different emerging markets across two product categories: hair care and whisky. In general, our findings are in-line with earlier empirical results – consumer profiles seldom differ in emerging...

The modes of influence of oil on gas markets - The economy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maisonnier, Guy

2016-01-01

This article first indicates how the oil price has influence on some gas markets in the USA, in the UK and in the Asia-Pacific region. The author then focuses on this last region, notably Japan where the LNG market was strongly impacted by the oil price. Many Asian actors now want to reform the gas market in order to avoid such a strong influence. The author discusses the consequences of the development of shale gas exploitation in the USA, not only on the US domestic market, but also on Europe and Asia. In Europe, two types of prices are still coexisting: indexed and spot prices. Indexed prices might be reached in periods of tension on the market (during a cold winter), but the trend is globally oriented downwards. It seems that spot prices tend to converge toward indexed prices, at least in winter. Thus, despite the existence of indexed contracts, the influence of oil price is slowly decreasing. Finally, the author outlines upheavals experienced by the gas market since 2009 due to economic growth, development of shale gas, change of contract models, level of LNG supply, CO 2 price, increasing share of renewable energies

IEA Response System for Oil Supply Emergencies (2012 update)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2012-09-05

Emergency response to oil supply disruptions has remained a core mission of the International Energy Agency since its founding in 1974. This information pamphlet explains the decisionmaking process leading to an IEA collective action, the measures available -- focusing on stockdraw -- and finally, the historical background of major oil supply disruptions and the IEA response to them. It also demonstrates the continuing need for emergency preparedness, including the growing importance of engaging key transition and emerging economies in dialogue about energy security.

An analysis of price and volatility transmission in butter, palm oil and crude oil markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dennis Bergmann

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Recent changes to the common agricultural policy (CAP saw a shift to greater market orientation for the EU dairy industry. Given this reorientation, the volatility of EU dairy commodity prices has sharply increased, creating the need to develop proper risk management tools to protect farmers’ income and to ensure stable prices for processors and consumers. In addition, there is a perceived threat that these commodities may be replaced by cheaper substitutes, such as palm oil, as dairy commodity prices become more volatile. Global production of palm oil almost doubled over the last decade while butter production remained relatively flat. Palm oil also serves as a feedstock for biodiesel production, thus establishing a new link between agricultural commodities and crude oil. Price and volatility transmission effects between EU and World butter prices, as well as between butter, palm oil and crude oil prices, before and after the Luxembourg agreement, are analysed. Vector autoregression (VAR models are applied to capture price transmission effects between these markets. These are combined with a multivariate GARCH model to account for potential volatility transmission. Results indicate strong price and volatility transmission effects between EU and World butter prices. EU butter shocks further spillover to palm oil volatility. In addition, there is evidence that oil prices spillover to World butter prices and World butter volatility.

Oil and Gas Emergency Policy: Germany 2012 update

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2012-07-01

Germany has very little domestic oil and natural gas production and relies heavily on imports. It has well diversified and flexible oil and natural gas supply infrastructure, which consists of crude, product and gas pipelines and crude and oil product import terminals. Natural gas is imported into Germany exclusively by cross-border pipeline. The country has no LNG infrastructure, although some German companies have booked capacities in overseas LNG terminals. Oil continues to be the main source of energy in Germany although it has declined markedly since the early 1970s. It now represents approximately 32% of Germany’s total primary energy supply (TPES). Natural gas consumption in Germany has declined 10% since 2006. Demand was 90 bcm in 2010, down from 100 bcm in 2005. According to government commissioned analysis, the total consumption of natural gas in Germany is expected to continue to decline over the long term. The share of natural gas in Germany’s TPES is currently around 22%. German oil stock levels are generally well above the required 90-days. Total oil stock levels in Germany were equivalent to 140 days net imports in April 2012. Since 1998, the German oil stockholding agency (EBV) has been solely responsible for meeting Germany's 90-day stockholding obligation. The Oil Stockholding Act stipulates that the EBV shall constantly maintain stocks of oil and petroleum products at a level equivalent to or above 90 days of net imports. There is no minimum stockholding obligation on industry, so industry held commercial stocks are held in addition to the EBV stocks. There are several legal tools available to German authorities for natural gas emergency response. These include Ordinances that can be used to restrict the sale, purchase or use of goods, both in terms of quantity and time, or permit them only for certain priority purposes, to ensure that vital energy needs are met. There are no compulsory natural gas storage requirements in Germany, and no

Empirical Studies on Financial Markets: Private Equity, Corporate Bonds and Emerging Markets

NARCIS (Netherlands)

G.J. de Zwart (Gerben)

2008-01-01

textabstractThis dissertation consists of five empirical studies on financial markets. Each study can be read independently and covers a specific market, either private equity, corporate bonds or emerging markets. The first study documents that risk factors cannot account for the significant excess

Measuring efficiency of international crude oil markets: A multifractality approach

Science.gov (United States)

Niere, H. M.

2015-01-01

The three major international crude oil markets are treated as complex systems and their multifractal properties are explored. The study covers daily prices of Brent crude, OPEC reference basket and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude from January 2, 2003 to January 2, 2014. A multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA) is employed to extract the generalized Hurst exponents in each of the time series. The generalized Hurst exponent is used to measure the degree of multifractality which in turn is used to quantify the efficiency of the three international crude oil markets. To identify whether the source of multifractality is long-range correlations or broad fat-tail distributions, shuffled data and surrogated data corresponding to each of the time series are generated. Shuffled data are obtained by randomizing the order of the price returns data. This will destroy any long-range correlation of the time series. Surrogated data is produced using the Fourier-Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (F-DFA). This is done by randomizing the phases of the price returns data in Fourier space. This will normalize the distribution of the time series. The study found that for the three crude oil markets, there is a strong dependence of the generalized Hurst exponents with respect to the order of fluctuations. This shows that the daily price time series of the markets under study have signs of multifractality. Using the degree of multifractality as a measure of efficiency, the results show that WTI is the most efficient while OPEC is the least efficient market. This implies that OPEC has the highest likelihood to be manipulated among the three markets. This reflects the fact that Brent and WTI is a very competitive market hence, it has a higher level of complexity compared against OPEC, which has a large monopoly power. Comparing with shuffled data and surrogated data, the findings suggest that for all the three crude oil markets, the multifractality is mainly due to long

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN STOCK MARKET RETURNS AND EXCHANGERATES IN EMERGING STOCK MARKETS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M.N. Arshad

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract-This paper aims to study the relationship between stock market returns and exchange rates in emerging stock markets including Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia and Philippines. The data is taken from January 2003 to December 2012 using weekly closing indices and separated in two periods; before (2003-2007 and second, after (2008-2012 the financial crisis of 2008. Johansen-Juselius (JJ. Granger causality tests show that unidirectional causality exists between the stock market returns and exchange rates for Thailand before the financial crisis, whilst, for Indonesia and Singapore, the unidirectional causality between the two variables is detected in the period after the financial crisis. Error Correction Model (ECM indicates the existence of long run causality between the two variables for Philippines. This study also finds that most of the emerging stock markets are informationally inefficient.

The impact of global oil price shocks on China’s bulk commodity markets and fundamental industries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Chuanguo; Chen, Xiaoqing

2014-01-01

This paper investigated the reaction of aggregate commodity market to oil price shocks and also explored the effects of oil price shocks on China's fundamental industries: metals, petrochemicals, grains and oilfats. We separated the volatilities of oil price into expected, unexpected and negatively expected categories to identify how oil prices influence bulk commodity markets. We contrasted the results between different periods and among classified indices, in order to discover the significant changes in recent years and the differences at an industry level. Our results indicate that the aggregate commodity market was affected by both expected and unexpected oil price volatilities in China. The impact of unexpected oil price volatilities became more complex after 2007. The metals and grains indices did not significantly respond to the expected volatility in oil prices, in contrast to the petrochemicals and oilfats indices. These results not only contribute to advancing the existing literature, but also merit particular attention from policy makers and market investors in China. - Highlights: • We investigated the impact of global oil price shocks on China’s bulk commodity markets and fundamental industries. • The aggregate commodity market was affected by both expected and unexpected oil price volatilities. • The impact of unexpected oil price volatilities became more complex after 2007. • The metals and grains indices did not significantly respond to the expected volatility in oil prices

Oil and Gas Emergency Policy: Turkey 2013 update

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2013-06-01

Oil has been one of the main energy sources in Turkey, accounting for some 28% of the country’s total primary energy supply (TPES) in 2011. Turkey’s oil demand slightly increased from 637 kb/d in 2003 to 670 kb/d in 2012, although it dropped down from 678 kb/d in 2009 to 650 kb/d in 2010. The transport sector accounted for half of total oil consumption in 2010. Domestic oil production is in decline in Turkey, amounting to 45 kb/d or about 6.7% of total consumption in 2012. In 2012, Turkey imported 712 kb/d, consisting of about 392 kb/d of crude oil and some 320 kb/d refined products. Around 39% of total crude oil imports came from Iran. Crude oil and petroleum products are mainly undertaken by tankers and two major international pipelines running through the country with a total annual handling capacity of 2.8 mb/d. In the country, there are four operational refineries with a total crude distillation capacity of around 610 kb/d. Turkey meets its 90-day stockholding obligation to the IEA by placing a minimum stockholding obligation on industry. Under the relevant acts, refineries and fuel distribution companies are obliged to hold at least 20 days of product stocks based on the average daily sales of previous year, while eligible consumers that use more than 20,000 tonnes annually are required to hold 15 days’ consumption of each type of liquid fuel. Turkey held some 61 million barrels of oil stocks at the end of January 2013, equating to 99 days of 2011 net-imports. Around 55% of total oil stocks are held in the form of crude oil. The use of emergency oil stocks is central to Turkey’s emergency response policy, which can be complemented by demand restraint measures. The share of natural gas in the country’s TPES significantly increased at 32% in 2011. Turkey’s gas demand significantly increased from 0.7 billion cubic meters (2 mcm/d) in 1987 to 45.3 bcm (124 mcm/d) in 2012, while indigenous natural gas production totalled some 0.63 bcm in the same year

A new approach to measure speculation in the oil futures market and some policy implications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chan, Leo H.; Nguyen, Chi M.; Chan, Kam C.

2015-01-01

We propose using a new relative measure, the speculative ratio, defined as trading volume divided by open interest, to gauge speculative activity in the oil futures market. We apply the speculative ratio to examine the relation between basis and speculative activity in the oil futures market before and after the financialization of the oil market in 2003. Our finding suggests that the oil futures market is dominated by uninformed speculators in the post-financialization period. Our finding carries several practical policy implications, as follows: (1) both the commodity exchange and the regulator should design regulations and trading policies that improve basis risk; (2) on the commodity exchange side, new policies on margin requirements and position limits for speculators should be implemented; (3) margin requirements should be based on the level of basis risk; (4) regulators should speed up implementation of the position limit rule in the Dodd–Frank Act; and (5) stronger and more meaningful enforcement actions by regulators are required to punish and deter market manipulators. - Highlights: • Use a new speculative ratio to gauge speculative activities in oil futures market. • Examine the relation between basis and speculative activities. • The new speculative ratio also works well in the post-2008 oil bubble period. • Oil futures market is dominated by uninformed speculators in post-financialization in 2003.

Dynamic Correlation between Stock Market Returns and Crude Oil Prices: Evidence from a Developing Economy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emenike O. Kalu

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE Modeling the correlation of assets returns volatilities across different markets or segments of a market has practical value for portfolio selection and diversification, market regulation, and risk management. This paper therefore evaluates the nature of time-varying correlation between volatilities of stock market and crude oil returns in Nigeria using Dynamic Conditional Correlation-Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (DCC-GARCH model. Results from DCC-GARCH (1,1 model show evidence of volatility clustering and persistence in Nigeria stock market and crude oil returns. The results also show that there is no dynamic conditional correlation in ARCH effects between stock market returns and crude oil prices in Nigeria. The results further show that there is strong evidence of time-varying volatility correlation between stock market and crude oil returns volatility. The findings will help shape policy-making in risk management and market regulation in Nigeria.

Impact of changing conditions in the oil market on energy policies in the ESCWA region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1992-01-01

The present study has been prepared in the implementation of the ESCWA work programme and priorities for 1988/1989. It is aimed at examining energy issues of major concern to the region particularly the changes in the oil market, fluctuations of oil prices and their impact on energy plans and policies. The study is also intended to serve as a background document to the Meeting organized to discuss salient energy issues arising from recent developments in the oil market. It has therefore been designed to deal with downstream and upstream activities, adjustments to contractual terms, and market and national energy policies following the violent fluctuations of oil prices. Some futuristic views on the oil market are also presented and the study includes an examination of national and regional entities involved in energy issues and development of oil resources in the ESCWA region. (Author)

33 CFR 157.410 - Emergency lightering requirements for oil tankers.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) POLLUTION RULES FOR THE PROTECTION OF THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT RELATING TO TANK... Petroleum Oils § 157.410 Emergency lightering requirements for oil tankers. Each oil tanker, to which this...

OPEC charts course for future oil market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Subroto, H.E.

1992-01-01

The author says OPEC is an economic organization with a simple mission: to provide a stable and reliable supply of oil to its customers and assure a fair return to its producers. When OPEC was formed in 1960, he recalls multinational oil companies dominated the oil market. Their operations were highly integrated from well to pump, and they kept oil prices low to fuel economic growth in prosperous industrialized countries. Host nations were rarely consulted in operations, and they reaped only minimal return for their black gold. OPEC changed all that. Today, OPEC's 13 member countries control their own oil industries, and some even own sizeable investments in the downstream sectors of consuming countries. To meet its commitment for supplying the petroleum needs of industrialized nations by the turn of the century, the author estimates OPEC will need to increase production capacity by about 40% at a cost well above what member countries can afford alone

Oil Price Forecasting Using Crack Spread Futures and Oil Exchange Traded Funds

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hankyeung Choi

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Given the emerging consensus from previous studies that crude oil and refined product (as well as crack spread prices are cointegrated, this study examines the link between the crude oil spot and crack spread derivatives markets. Specifically, the usefulness of the two crack spread derivatives products (namely, crack spread futures and the ETF crack spread for modeling and forecasting daily OPEC crude oil spot prices is evaluated. Based on the results of a structural break test, the sample is divided into pre-crisis, crisis, and post-crisis periods. We find a unidirectional relationship from the two crack spread derivatives markets to the crude oil spot market during the post-crisis period. In terms of forecasting performance, the forecasting models based on crack spread futures and the ETF crack spread outperform the Random Walk Model (RWM, both in-sample and out-of-sample. In addition, on average, the results suggest that information from the ETF crack spread market contributes more to the forecasting models than information from the crack spread futures market.

State of the art in oil market in the world

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Banks, F. E.

2007-01-01

Things move fast in the world of oil and unfortunately many events do not always receive an appropriate interpretation. The present update reviews the on-going oil peak debate, providing evidence against unjustified optimistic propositions, discussing the predictable shortage of energy materials and its influence on prices. Moreover, the return of OPEC to the oil market drivers seat and the irruption of state oil companies from exporting countries are also commented. (Author)

Oil market strengthening in the second half of 1992

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beck, R.J.

1992-01-01

This paper reports that the economy and events in the Middle East continue to drive the oil market. Saudi Arabia's decision in March to reduce crude oil output boosted prices by about $3/bbl and may have signaled a significant change in the kingdom's price strategy. With Kuwaiti production capacity still less then its levels before the Iraqi invasion of 1990, with Iraqi exports still crimped by an international embargo, and with Saudi Arabia producing less than before, the market looks tight for the rest of the year. Last year's war to liberate Kuwait temporarily eliminated much of the surplus production capacity with which the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries had grappled for several years. This year, oil supply and demand have stayed in rough balance, even with Kuwaiti crude returning to the market. Two prospects have made traders nervous: resumption of Iraqi exports at significant levels and deliberate Saudi overproduction aimed at suppressing prices. The Saudi production cut put one of those fears to temporary rest. And negotiations between Baghdad and the United Nations over the Iraqi embargo seem unlikely to produce results for at least a while. Demand growth, meanwhile, will depend on economic performances of key oil consuming countries. In the US, modest economic recovery has increased industrial activity and stimulated demand for petroleum products. Crude oil and product prices began rising in April. Refiner additions to crude stocks have further added to the call on shrinking crude supplies, helping to lift prices. In turn, product prices have risen. With continued economic growth, prices will climb modestly throughout the year

The world oil market after the Iraq-Kuwait crisis: Economic and politicoeconomic considerations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wirl, F.

1994-01-01

The recent crisis in the Gulf (Iraq's temporary annexation of Kuwait) will presumably inflict enormous damage on future oil markets on both sides, consumers and producers. Consumers will be aware of the potential insecurity of the oil supply from the Arab-Persian Gulf, ironically, at a time when OPEC members (others than Iraq and Kuwait) stood up to their commitment. The reason for this lack of confidence is that political objectives may dominate conventional economic goals so that the future oil market becomes unpredictable and potentially insecure. As a consequence, consumers may conserve even in period of low oil prices so that billions and billions of (opportunity) dollars might be wasted. Vertical integration may be a way to mitigate this insecurity and to increase the credibility of a reliable supply. Presumably the easiest way to regain some of the consumers' confidence seems to be to again offer the international oil companies larger responsibility for the oil market

VOLATILITY SPILLOVER EFFECTS IN THE EXTRA VIRGIN OLIVE OIL MARKETS OF THE MEDITERRANEAN

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dimitrios Panagiotou

2015-07-01

Full Text Available The objective of this study is to assess the existence and magnitude of volatility spillovers between the extra virgin olive oil markets of Italy, Spain and Greece. These three Mediterranean countries are responsible for 95% of olive oil production within the European Union and they account for more than 50% of olive oil exports worldwide. In order to measure the degree of volatility transmission between these countries we estimate a vector error correction model along with the BEKK parameterization of a Multivariate Generalized Conditional Autoregressive Heteroskedasticity (M-GARCH model. The empirical results reveal the presence of ARCH and GARCH effects suggesting this way the existence of volatility spillovers between the extra virgin olive oil markets of Italy, Greece and Spain. ARCH effects are the biggest in magnitude for the market between Spain and Italy. GARCH effects are the biggest in magnitude for the market between Greece and Italy.

Unraveling hidden order in the dynamics of developed and emerging markets.

Science.gov (United States)

Berman, Yonatan; Shapira, Yoash; Ben-Jacob, Eshel

2014-01-01

The characterization of asset price returns is an important subject in modern finance. Traditionally, the dynamics of stock returns are assumed to lack any temporal order. Here we present an analysis of the autocovariance of stock market indices and unravel temporal order in several major stock markets. We also demonstrate a fundamental difference between developed and emerging markets in the past decade - emerging markets are marked by positive order in contrast to developed markets whose dynamics are marked by weakly negative order. In addition, the reaction to financial crises was found to be reversed among developed and emerging markets, presenting large positive/negative autocovariance spikes following the onset of these crises. Notably, the Chinese market shows neutral or no order while being regarded as an emerging market. These findings show that despite the coupling between international markets and global trading, major differences exist between different markets, and demonstrate that the autocovariance of markets is correlated with their stability, as well as with their state of development.

Is oil supply choked by financial market pressures?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Osmundsen, P.; Mohn, K.; Misund, B.; Asche, F.

2007-01-01

Since the late 1990s, financial analysts have focused strongly on short-term profitability for benchmarking and valuation of international oil and gas companies. The increasing pressure for strict capital discipline among oil and gas companies may have reduced their willingness to invest for future reserves and production growth. The current high oil price is partly due to low exploration activity in the oil industry the last decade. We present and discuss the background for this development - based on previous academic research, industry trends and current valuation practices. An estimated econometric model of stock market valuation among oil and gas companies suggests that analysts and companies have put exaggerate weight on short-term earnings and accounting profitability. We therefore expect that the attention will shift back to long-term reserve and production growth. (author)

Is oil supply choked by financial market pressures?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Osmundsen, Petter; Mohn, Klaus; Misund, Bard; Asche, Frank

2007-01-01

Since the late 1990s, financial analysts have focused strongly on short-term profitability for benchmarking and valuation of international oil and gas companies. The increasing pressure for strict capital discipline among oil and gas companies may have reduced their willingness to invest for future reserves and production growth. The current high oil price is partly due to low exploration activity in the oil industry the last decade. We present and discuss the background for this development-based on previous academic research, industry trends and current valuation practices. An estimated econometric model of stock market valuation among oil and gas companies suggests that analysts and companies have put exaggerate weight on short-term earnings and accounting profitability. We therefore expect that the attention will shift back to long-term reserve and production growth

Database marketing practices and opportunities in a newly emerging African market

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Paas, L.J.

2009-01-01

In this paper, qualitative research is conducted to gain insight into the current application and potential of database marketing in a newly emerging African economy, Tanzania. It is found that database marketing applications in Tanzania are currently limited, but that there is potential. The most

Regime-switching stochastic volatility. Evidence from the crude oil market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vo, Minh T.

2009-01-01

This paper incorporates regime-switching into the stochastic volatility (SV) framework in an attempt to explain the behavior of crude oil prices in order to forecast their volatility. More specifically, it models the volatility of oil return as a stochastic volatility process whose mean is subject to shifts in regime. The shift is governed by a two-state first-order Markov process. The Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is used to estimate the models. The main findings are: first, there is clear evidence of regime-switching in the oil market. Ignoring it will lead to a false impression that the volatility is highly persistent and therefore highly predictable. Second, incorporating regime-switching into the SV framework significantly enhances the forecasting power of the SV model. Third, the regime-switching stochastic volatility model does a good job in capturing major events affecting the oil market. (author)

Strategies that fit emerging markets.

Science.gov (United States)

Khanna, Tarun; Palepu, Krishna G; Sinha, Jayant

2005-06-01

It's no easy task to identify strategies for entering new international markets or to decide which countries to do business with. Many firms simply go with what they know-and fall far short of their goals. Part of the problem is that emerging markets have "institutional voids": They lack specialized intermediaries, regulatory systems, and contract-enforcing methods. These gaps have made it difficult for multinationals to succeed in developing nations; thus, many companies have resisted investing there. That may be a mistake. If Western companies don't come up with good strategies for engaging with emerging markets, they are unlikely to remain competitive. Many firms choose their markets and strategies for the wrong reasons, relying on everything from senior managers' gut feelings to the behaviors of rivals. Corporations also depend on composite indexes for help making decisions. But these analyses can be misleading; they don't account for vital information about the soft infrastructures in developing nations. A better approach is to understand institutional variations between countries. The best way to do this, the authors have found, is by using the five contexts framework. The five contexts are a country's political and social systems, its degree of openness, its product markets, its labor markets, and its capital markets. By asking a series of questions that pertain to each ofthe five areas, executives can map the institutional contexts of any nation. When companies match their strategies to each country's contexts, they can take advantage of a location's unique strengths. But first firms should weigh the benefits against the costs. If they find that the risks of adaptation are too great, they should try to change the contexts in which they operate or simply stay away.

Macro economy, stock market and oil prices. Do meaningful relationships exist among their cyclical fluctuations?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Filis, George

2010-01-01

This paper examines the relationship among consumer price index, industrial production, stock market and oil prices in Greece. Initially we use a unified statistical framework (cointegration and VECM) to study the data in levels. We then employ a multivariate VAR model to examine the relationship among the cyclical components of our series. The period of the study is from 1996:1 to 2008:6. Findings suggest that oil prices and the stock market exercise a positive effect on the Greek CPI, in the long run. Cyclical components analysis suggests that oil prices exercise significant negative influence to the stock market. In addition, oil prices are negatively influencing CPI, at a significant level. However, we find no effect of oil prices on industrial production and CPI. Finally, no relationship can be documented between the industrial production and stock market for the Greek market. The findings of this study are of particular interest and importance to policy makers, financial managers, financial analysts and investors dealing with the Greek economy and the Greek stock market. (author)

Oil: Economics and politics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ayoub, A.

1994-01-01

A review is presented of the evolution of the international petroleum sector since 1973 with a special emphasis on the interdependence between the economic and political factors that influence it. Two issues are focused on: the effects of the nationalization of oil companies on the sharing of oil rents and on changes in the structure of the oil market; and the determination of oil prices. Definitions are presented of oil rents, and the reasons for OPEC nationalization of oil companies are explored. The effects of nationalization on market structures, expansion of free markets, and vertical integration are discussed. The existence of an oil price floor and the reasons for such a floor are examined. It is shown that nationalization induced an internalization of rents by the producing countries, leading to the emergence of a differential rent supported by the politics of the industrialized countries. Nationalization led to the breakup of systems of vertical and horizontal integration, with replacement by a new dual structure with OPEC controlling the upstream activities of the oil sector and oil companies controlling the downstream ones. Prices move between a floor price set by the costs of substitute deposits in the U.S., while the determination of ceiling levels by OPEC rests on successive fragile compromises. Overall oil is still a strategic product, despite the existence of spot markets, forward trading options, etc. 29 refs

Crude oil growth impact on pipelines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Devries, O.

2005-01-01

This paper provided an outline of crude oil production and supply in Canada. Details of oil sands projects in Athabasca, Cold Lake and Peace River were presented. A chart of oil sands growth by major project was provided. A list of new emerging oil sands crude types was also presented along with details of a synthetic bitumen blending synergy. Maps of Western Canadian crude oil markets were provided, along with details of refinery and market demand by crude type. Various pipeline alternatives to new markets were examined, with reference to Enbridge Pipeline's supply and capacity. Details of the Hardisty to U.S Gulf Coast Pipeline and the Edmonton to Prince Rupert Pipeline and its terminal and dock facilities were presented. It was concluded that pipeline capacity and seasonal factors will influence market demand, while linefill, crude types and the quality of the product will influence operational strategies. tabs., figs

Signals from the oil market. The right strategy at the right moment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Correlje, A.; Van Geuns, L.

2006-04-01

The authors discuss the perceptions of the international oil market which are formed in the light of the current high oil prices, tight supplies, rapid demand growth, geopolitical turbulence and diminishing reserves. The authors argue that the world is not running out of oil in the near and medium term, albeit that substantial investments and continuing technological innovations are required to increase the world oil production capacity. The problem signalled is that observers and policy makers are tempted to mix up their interpretation of short term events and possible longer term developments. Market developments should be evaluated in the context of the time scale at which they occur. An accumulation of ad hoc policies, unrelated to the nature of the problem and timing, may have disastrous consequences for the oil market and energy supply. Over the longer term it is hard to make predictions about the interaction of specific technological, economic and political developments. Given these uncertainties, policy makers should strive for a type of energy policy making that is consistent with mid-term objectives. [nl

Heavy crude oil and synthetic crude market outlook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crandall, G.R.

1997-01-01

This presentation included an outline of the international heavy crude supply and demand versus Canadian heavy crude supply and disposition, and pricing outlook for synthetic crudes. Differences among crude oils such as light sweet, light sour, heavy and bitumen were described and illustrated with respect to their gravity, API, percentage of sulphur, metals and nitrogen. Internationally, heavy and sour crude supplies are forecast to increase significantly over the next four years. Discoveries of light sour crude in offshore Gulf of Mexico will provide a major new source of sour crude to U.S. Gulf Coast refineries. Venezuela's supplies of heavy and sour crude are also expected to increase over the next few years. Mexico and Canada have plans to increase their heavy crude production. All of the crudes will be aimed at the U.S. Gulf Coast and Midwest markets. Pentanes and condensates are also expected to increase based on the growing Canadian natural gas production. Diluent demand will also grow to match Canadian heavy crude/bitumen production. U.S. midwest refiners are proposing expansions to allow them to process more Canadian heavy crude oil. At present, only a few refineries are equipped to process significant amounts of synthetic crude. It was suggested that to absorb available heavy and synthetic production, increased penetration into both Canadian and U.S. markets will be required. Some refineries may have to be modified to process heavy and synthetic oil supplies. Heavy oil and synthetic producers may need to develop relationships with refiners such as joint ventures and term supply agreements to secure markets. 2 tabs., 12 figs

The Value of Institutions for Financial Markets; Evidence From Emerging Markets

OpenAIRE

Thomas Stratmann; Bernardin Akitoby

2009-01-01

This paper investigates the value of political institutions for financial markets, using panel data from emerging market countries. We test the hypothesis that changes in political institutions, such as improvements in democratic rights and increased government accountability, have a direct effect on sovereign interest rate spreads. We find that financial markets value institutions over and above the economic and fiscal outcomes these institutions shape. Democracy and accountability generally...

Financial resources for development. Capital markets in developing countries: a study on borrowing by developing countries in the emerging capital markets of the Middle East

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nashashibi, H S

1980-10-01

Private transfers of capital from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to developing countries are intended to complement private transfers from the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) by tapping the emerging capital markets in the Middle East. Developing countries will be able to diversify their borrowing and gain additional financing. The long-term investment of oil-producing countries will benefit and the pressures on the banking institutions to recycle funds will lessen. Middle East capital markets include international loans and international bonds. The history of the Kuwaiti dinar (KD) bond market, with its advantages for both investors and borrowers, illustrates the successful development of a capital market. Financial intermediation needs to be improved, however, if the Middle East is to become efficient enough to compete with the Euromarkets. Efficiency will require different measures and should reflect strengthening relationships among Middle East nations. (DCK)

Emerging Market Attractiveness Index for hydro IPPs

OpenAIRE

Weaver, Tyson John

2013-01-01

This article addresses two primary commercial themes that affect the future development of the industry. 1. What are the most attractive future emerging markets for hydropower? 2. What parameters are utilized by international hydro IPPs to determine market attractiveness?

Impact of Oil Price Shocks and Exchange Rate Volatility on Stock Market Behavior in Nigeria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adedoyin I. Lawal

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The impact of exchange rate and oil prices fluctuation on the stock market has been a subject of hot debate among researchers. This study examined the impact of both the exchange rate volatility and oil price volatility on stock market volatility in Nigeria, so as to guide policy formulation based on the fact that the nation’s economy was foreign induced and mono-cultured with heavy dependence on oil. EGARCH estimation techniques were employed to examine if either the volatility in exchange rate, oil price volatility or both experts on stock market volatility in Nigeria. The result shows that share price volatility is induced by both the exchange rate volatility and oil price volatility. Thus, it is recommended that policymakers should pursue policies that tend to stabilize the exchange rate regime on the one hand, and guarantee the net oil exporting position for the economy, that market practitioners should formulate portfolio strategies in such a way that volatility in both exchange rates and oil price will be factored in time when investment decisions are being made.

The role of reserves and production in the market capitalization of oil and gas companies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ewing, Bradley T.; Thompson, Mark A.

2016-01-01

We examine the role proved reserves and production play in the market capitalization of publicly traded oil and gas companies engaged in the exploration and production of hydrocarbons. The paper provides two important contributions to the literature. First, we extend the existing research by utilizing the method of Robust Least Squares to estimate a multivariate market capitalization model that controls for firm type. Second, we document the impacts that oil and gas reserves to production ratios have on market capitalization. This is a key finding in the context of discounted net cash flow models and the findings suggest there is an optimal tradeoff between current and future production, given current volumes of reserves, the latter of which is valued positively by the market. Moreover, this optimal tradeoff or the optimal profit-maximizing intertemporal production choice is unique to the type of hydrocarbon being considered. Additionally, our findings highlight the importance of capital structure in the heavily capital intensive oil and gas industry. The results from this research should benefit both oil and gas companies and investors. Specifically, the results provide new and robust information as to the empirical relationships between key determinants of oil and gas company market valuations. - Highlights: • We utilized Robust Least Squares to estimate a multivariate market capitalization model. • There is a differential impact that oil and gas reserves to production ratios have on market capitalization. • The optimal profit-maximizing intertemporal production choice is unique to the type of hydrocarbon being considered. • Results provide new information as to the relationships between key determinants of oil and gas company market valuations.

The Effects of Crude Oil on Stock Markets with use of Markov Switching Models

OpenAIRE

Wiese, Thor August Mediaas

2016-01-01

In this thesis, a two regime Markov switching (MS) model is implemented to examine the relationship between crude oil, both brent oil and WTI, and stock markets. In particular, the model is applied to stock markets in both oil importing and exporting countries which include Canada, China, Japan, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, the United Kingdom and the United States. This paper first evaluates the significance of oil parameters in the detected regimes, where the two regimes respond to low mean...

Oil and gas markets, companies, and technology in the 1990`s and beyond

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kennedy, J.L.

1995-08-01

During the late 1990`s and beyond, oil prices will be stagnant while costs increase, competition for markets and capital will be fierce, funds available for exploration and development will be limited, and environmental extremists will keep prospective areas off-limits. Higher taxes will limit growth in oil and gas demand and reapportion energy market shares. And a campaign to brand oil use as an ``addiction`` that must be cured will gather steam. But opportunities abound, too, even in the US High-quality properties are available throughout the US, independents can find and develop reserves cheaper than the majors, and new tools are available to reduce risks both in the field and in the market. Gas prices are firming and natural gas is often labeled the ``fuel of the future.`` To succeed in the petroleum industry of the 1990`s, all companies must accept change, be creative, and take initiative. To prosper, oil and gas producers and refiners and those who supply and serve the industry must face the new realities of the market. They cannot mark time until the return of 4,000 active rigs and $40/bbl oil. those days are never coming back. Never.

Market structure, excess capacity and price movement: implications for the world oil market in the 1990s

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iwayemi, A.

1992-01-01

World Oil Market developments, since the second half of the 1980s, have demonstrated again the conventional wisdom in economics that competitive production and pricing strategies have among producers, when the industry is characterized by significant excess capacity, in exerting strong downward pressure on the price. The magnitude and speed of the price falls depends not only on the size and utilization of the available excess capacity, but also on the perception of the markets as regards the degree of the imbalance between demand and supply. The impact of output competition on oil revenues in the short run depends on the magnitude of the price elasticity of demand. The most vivid illustration of this phenomenon is captured by the experience of 1986, when competition for market share among oil producers, despite the existence of about 20 per cent excess capacity, culminated in a sharp drop in price, with only a marginal improvement in demand. (author)

Crude oil market efficiency and modeling. Insights from the multiscaling autocorrelation pattern

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose; Alvarez, Jesus; Solis, Ricardo

2010-01-01

Empirical research on market inefficiencies focuses on the detection of autocorrelations in price time series. In the case of crude oil markets, statistical support is claimed for weak efficiency over a wide range of time-scales. However, the results are still controversial since theoretical arguments point to deviations from efficiency as prices tend to revert towards an equilibrium path. This paper studies the efficiency of crude oil markets by using lagged detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) to detect delay effects in price autocorrelations quantified in terms of a multiscaling Hurst exponent (i.e., autocorrelations are dependent of the time scale). Results based on spot price data for the period 1986-2009 indicate important deviations from efficiency associated to lagged autocorrelations, so imposing the random walk for crude oil prices has pronounced costs for forecasting. Evidences in favor of price reversion to a continuously evolving mean underscores the importance of adequately incorporating delay effects and multiscaling behavior in the modeling of crude oil price dynamics. (author)

Crude oil market efficiency and modeling. Insights from the multiscaling autocorrelation pattern

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose [Departamento de Ingenieria de Procesos e Hidraulica, Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana-Iztapalapa, Apartado Postal 55-534, Mexico D.F., 09340 (Mexico); Departamento de Economia, Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana-Iztapalapa, Apartado Postal 55-534, Mexico D.F., 09340 (Mexico); Alvarez, Jesus [Departamento de Ingenieria de Procesos e Hidraulica, Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana-Iztapalapa, Apartado Postal 55-534, Mexico D.F., 09340 (Mexico); Solis, Ricardo [Departamento de Economia, Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana-Iztapalapa, Apartado Postal 55-534, Mexico D.F., 09340 (Mexico)

2010-09-15

Empirical research on market inefficiencies focuses on the detection of autocorrelations in price time series. In the case of crude oil markets, statistical support is claimed for weak efficiency over a wide range of time-scales. However, the results are still controversial since theoretical arguments point to deviations from efficiency as prices tend to revert towards an equilibrium path. This paper studies the efficiency of crude oil markets by using lagged detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) to detect delay effects in price autocorrelations quantified in terms of a multiscaling Hurst exponent (i.e., autocorrelations are dependent of the time scale). Results based on spot price data for the period 1986-2009 indicate important deviations from efficiency associated to lagged autocorrelations, so imposing the random walk for crude oil prices has pronounced costs for forecasting. Evidences in favor of price reversion to a continuously evolving mean underscores the importance of adequately incorporating delay effects and multiscaling behavior in the modeling of crude oil price dynamics. (author)

Marketing strategy for the BC oil and gas service sector

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2004-10-29

The British Columbia (BC) oil and gas service sector is collaborating with the BC Ministry of Energy and Mines (MEM) to enhance the competitiveness of oil and gas service providers in Northeast BC. The MEM agreed to provide one-time funding to develop this marketing strategy for the oil and gas sector, particularly for small to medium-sized companies with limited resources. This document is also a resource tool for suppliers in the sector that have developed and are implementing their own marketing plans and wish to enhance elements of their own plans. The strategy also outlines the potential role of associations in Northeast BC that represent the service sector. It links their marketing activities with the activities of individual service providers. Local service providers (LSP) include companies in a wide range of businesses such as drilling support, transportation, health and safety services, and construction. Six issues that directly impact the competitiveness of LSPs were also presented along with recommendations for participants in the service sector, associations and individual companies. tabs., figs., 11 appendices.

Marketing strategy for the BC oil and gas service sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-01-01

The British Columbia (BC) oil and gas service sector is collaborating with the BC Ministry of Energy and Mines (MEM) to enhance the competitiveness of oil and gas service providers in Northeast BC. The MEM agreed to provide one-time funding to develop this marketing strategy for the oil and gas sector, particularly for small to medium-sized companies with limited resources. This document is also a resource tool for suppliers in the sector that have developed and are implementing their own marketing plans and wish to enhance elements of their own plans. The strategy also outlines the potential role of associations in Northeast BC that represent the service sector. It links their marketing activities with the activities of individual service providers. Local service providers (LSP) include companies in a wide range of businesses such as drilling support, transportation, health and safety services, and construction. Six issues that directly impact the competitiveness of LSPs were also presented along with recommendations for participants in the service sector, associations and individual companies. tabs., figs., 11 appendices

Emerging market business cycles: the cycle is the trend

OpenAIRE

Mark Aguiar; Gita Gopinath

2004-01-01

Business cycles in emerging markets are characterized by strongly counter-cyclical current accounts, consumption volatility that exceeds income volatility, and dramatic “sudden stops” in capital inflows. These features contrast with those of developed, small open economies and highlight the uniqueness of emerging markets. Nevertheless, we show that both qualitatively and quantitatively a standard dynamic stochastic, small open economy model can account for the behavior of both types of market...

Market efficiency of oil spot and futures: A mean-variance and stochastic dominance approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lean, Hooi Hooi [Economics Program, School of Social Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia (Malaysia); McAleer, Michael [Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam, and, Tinbergen Institute (Netherlands); Wong, Wing-Keung, E-mail: awong@hkbu.edu.h [Department of Economics, Hong Kong Baptist University (Hong Kong)

2010-09-15

This paper examines the market efficiency of oil spot and futures prices by using both mean-variance (MV) and stochastic dominance (SD) approaches. Based on the West Texas Intermediate crude oil data for the sample period 1989-2008, we find no evidence of any MV and SD relationships between oil spot and futures indices. This infers that there is no arbitrage opportunity between these two markets, spot and futures do not dominate one another, investors are indifferent to investing spot or futures, and the spot and futures oil markets are efficient and rational. The empirical findings are robust to each sub-period before and after the crises for different crises, and also to portfolio diversification.

Market efficiency of oil spot and futures. A mean-variance and stochastic dominance approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lean, Hooi Hooi [Economics Program, School of Social Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia (Malaysia); McAleer, Michael [Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam (Netherlands); Wong, Wing-Keung [Department of Economics, Hong Kong Baptist University (China); Tinbergen Institute (Netherlands)

2010-09-15

This paper examines the market efficiency of oil spot and futures prices by using both mean-variance (MV) and stochastic dominance (SD) approaches. Based on the West Texas Intermediate crude oil data for the sample period 1989-2008, we find no evidence of any MV and SD relationships between oil spot and futures indices. This infers that there is no arbitrage opportunity between these two markets, spot and futures do not dominate one another, investors are indifferent to investing spot or futures, and the spot and futures oil markets are efficient and rational. The empirical findings are robust to each sub-period before and after the crises for different crises, and also to portfolio diversification. (author)

Market efficiency of oil spot and futures: A mean-variance and stochastic dominance approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lean, Hooi Hooi; McAleer, Michael; Wong, Wing-Keung

2010-01-01

This paper examines the market efficiency of oil spot and futures prices by using both mean-variance (MV) and stochastic dominance (SD) approaches. Based on the West Texas Intermediate crude oil data for the sample period 1989-2008, we find no evidence of any MV and SD relationships between oil spot and futures indices. This infers that there is no arbitrage opportunity between these two markets, spot and futures do not dominate one another, investors are indifferent to investing spot or futures, and the spot and futures oil markets are efficient and rational. The empirical findings are robust to each sub-period before and after the crises for different crises, and also to portfolio diversification.

The oil barrel price

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blondy, J.; Papon, P.

2009-01-01

This paper proposes an overview and a prospective glance on the oil barrel price. It indicates the relevant indicators: Brent quotation, euro/dollar parity, economic activity indicators, world oil consumption distribution, crude oil production, refining capacity. It briefly presents the involved stake holders: crude oil producers, oil refiners, refined product dealers, and the OPEC. It discusses the major retrospective trends: evolution in relationship with geopolitical events and energy policies, strong correlation between oil demand and economic growth, prevalence of OPEC, growing importance of national oil companies. An emerging trend is noticed: growing role of emerging countries on the crude market. Some prospective issues are discussed: duration and intensity of economic recession, separation between economic growth and energy consumption, pace and ambition level of policies of struggle against climate change, exploitable resources, and geopolitical hazards. Four evolution hypotheses are discussed

Testing efficiency and unbiasedness in the oil market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moosa, I.A.; Al-Loughani, N.

1994-03-01

This paper presents some empirical evidence on speculative efficiency or unbiasedness in the crude oil futures market and some related issues. On the basis of monthly observations on spot and futures prices of the WTI crude oil, several tests are carried out on the relevant hypotheses. The evidence suggests that futures prices are neither unbiased nor efficient forecasters of spot prices. Furthermore, a GARCH-M(1,1) model reveals the existence of a time-varying risk premium. (author)

TESTING INFORMATIONAL EFFICIENCY: THE CASE OF U.E. AND BRIC EMERGENT MARKETS

OpenAIRE

OPREAN Camelia

2012-01-01

Empirical finance has brought together a considerable number of studies in determining the market efficiency in terms of information in the case of an emerging financial market. Conflicting results have been generated by these researches in efficient market hypothesis (EMH), so efficiency tests in the emerging financial markets are rarely definitive in reaching a conclusion about the existence of informational efficiency. This paper tests weak-form market efficiency of eight emerging markets:...

Stocks for the long run? : Evidence from emerging markets

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Spierdijk, Laura; Umar, Zaghum

2014-01-01

We estimate the myopic (single-period) and intertemporal hedging (long-run) demand for stocks in 20 growth-leading emerging market economies during the 1999-2012 period. We consider two types of investors: a domestic investor who invests in emerging-market assets only (with returns in local

Speculation and volatility spillover in the crude oil and agricultural commodity markets: A Bayesian analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Du Xiaodong; Yu, Cindy L.; Hayes, Dermot J.

2011-01-01

This paper assesses factors that potentially influence the volatility of crude oil prices and the possible linkage between this volatility and agricultural commodity markets. Stochastic volatility models are applied to weekly crude oil, corn, and wheat futures prices from November 1998 to January 2009. Model parameters are estimated using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Speculation, scalping, and petroleum inventories are found to be important in explaining the volatility of crude oil prices. Several properties of crude oil price dynamics are established, including mean-reversion, an asymmetry between returns and volatility, volatility clustering, and infrequent compound jumps. We find evidence of volatility spillover among crude oil, corn, and wheat markets after the fall of 2006. This can be largely explained by tightened interdependence between crude oil and these commodity markets induced by ethanol production.

A study on the future of unconventional oil development under different oil price scenarios: A system dynamics approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hosseini, Seyed Hossein; Shakouri, Hamed G.

2016-01-01

Fluctuations in the oil global market has been a critical topic for the world economy so that analyzing and forecasting the conventional oil production rate has been examined by many researchers thoroughly. However, the dynamics of the market has not been studied systematically with regard to the new emerging competitors, namely unconventional oil. In this paper, the future trend of conventional and unconventional oil production and capacity expansion rates are analyzed using system dynamics approach. To do so, a supply-side modeling approach is utilized while main effective loops are modeled mathematically as follows: technological learning and progress, long and short-term profitability of oil capacity expansion and production, and oil proved reserve limitations. The proposed model is used to analyze conventional and unconventional oil production shares, up to 2025, under different oil price scenarios. The results show that conventional oil production rate ranges from 79.995 to 87.044 MB/day, which is 75–80 percent of total oil production rate, while unconventional oil production rate ranges from 19.615 to 28.584 MB/day. Simulation results reveal that unconventional oil can gain a considerable market share in the short run, although conventional oil will remain as the major source for the market in the long run. - Highlights: • Variables and loops affecting oil production are formulated mathematically. • Shares of conventional and unconventional oil in the global oil market is analyzed. • Oil production rate under different oil price scenarios up to 2025 is simulated. • Unconventional oil would obtain a considerable share in market in the short-term. • A late peak for the conventional oil resources would occur.

FX and derivatives markets in emerging economies and the internationalisation of their currencies

OpenAIRE

Torsten Ehlers; Frank Packer

2013-01-01

Derivatives markets in emerging economies have continued to grow since 2010, driven mostly by very strong growth in the OTC market. Emerging market currencies have become more international as offshore markets are a major contributor to FX turnover. The Chinese renminbi is actively traded within emerging Asia. Trading of emerging market currencies is positively related to the size of cross-border financial flows.

Emerging Market Multinationals

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gammeltoft, Peter; Hobdari, Bersant

2017-01-01

International knowledge flows and innovation are becoming ever more important to the competitiveness of multinational corporations. Emerging market multinationals (EMNCs) in specific are deploying increasingly activist measures to harness foreign sources of knowledge and innovation as a strategy...... in which this disagreement can be reconciled through recognition of other EMNC advantages, particularly abilities to leverage country-specific assets, and possession and development of dynamic capabilities. Finally, we identify a set of core themes in the recent literature on strategic asset...

Oil price assumptions in macroeconomic forecasts: should we follow future market expectations?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coimbra, C.; Esteves, P.S.

2004-01-01

In macroeconomic forecasting, in spite of its important role in price and activity developments, oil prices are usually taken as an exogenous variable, for which assumptions have to be made. This paper evaluates the forecasting performance of futures market prices against the other popular technical procedure, the carry-over assumption. The results suggest that there is almost no difference between opting for futures market prices or using the carry-over assumption for short-term forecasting horizons (up to 12 months), while, for longer-term horizons, they favour the use of futures market prices. However, as futures market prices reflect market expectations for world economic activity, futures oil prices should be adjusted whenever market expectations for world economic growth are different to the values underlying the macroeconomic scenarios, in order to fully ensure the internal consistency of those scenarios. (Author)

Efficient market hypothesis in emerging markets: Panel data evidence with multiple breaks and cross sectional dependence

OpenAIRE

Abd Halim Ahmad; Siti Nurazira Mohd Daud; W.N.W. Azman-Saini

2010-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to re-examine whether mean reversion property hold for 15 emerging stock markets for the period 1985 to 2006. Utilizing a panel stationarity test that is able to account for multiple structural breaks and cross sectional dependence, we find that the emerging stock markets follow a random walk process. However, further analysis on individual series show that the majority of stock prices in emerging markets are governed by a mean reverting process. This result, whic...

Financial Services and Emerging Markets

NARCIS (Netherlands)

B. Karreman (Bas)

2011-01-01

textabstractThis study addresses the organization and strategy of firms in emerging markets with an explicit application to financial services. Given the relevance of a well-functioning financial system for economic growth, understanding the organization and strategy of firms contributing to the

Plasticizer contamination in edible vegetable oil in a U.S. retail market.

Science.gov (United States)

Bi, Xiaolong; Pan, Xiaojun; Yuan, Shoujun; Wang, Qiquan

2013-10-02

With the wide application of plastics, the contamination of plasticizers migrating from plastic materials in the environment is becoming ubiquitous. The presence of phthalates, the major group of plasticizers, in edible items has gained increasingly more concern due to their endocrine disrupting property. In this study, 15 plasticizers in 21 edible vegetable oils purchased from a U.S. retail market were analyzed using gas chromatograph-mass spectrometry. Di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) and diisobutyl phthalate (DiBP) were detected in all oil samples. Benzylbutyl phthalate (BzBP), dibutyl phthalate (DBP), and diethyl phthalate (DEP) were detected at a rate of 95.2, 90.5, and 90.5%, respectively. The detection rates for all other plasticizers ranged from 0 to 57.1%. The content of total plasticizers in oil samples was determined to be 210-7558 μg/kg, which was comparable to the content range in oil marketed in Italy. Although no significant difference (p = 0.05) in the total content of plasticizer was observed among oil species (soybean, canola, corn, and olive), the wider range and higher average of total content of plasticizers in olive oil than other oil species indicated the inconsistence of plasticizer contamination in olive oil and a possible priority for quality monitoring. No significant difference (p = 0.05) in the total content of plasticizers was found among glass-bottle (n = 4), plastic-bottle (n = 14), and metal-can (n = 3) packaging, implying that oil packaging is not the major cause of plasticizer contamination. The daily intake amount of plasticizers contained in edible oil on this U.S. retail market constituted only a minimum percentage of reference dose established by US EPA, thus no obvious toxicological effect might be caused. However, the fact that DEHP content in two olive oils exceeded relevant special migration limits (SMLs) of Europe and China might need attention.

THE ORGANIZATIONAL-ECONOMIC MECHANISM OF RESTRUCTURING OF THE MARKET OF MINERAL OIL IN REGION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V.I. Efimenkov

2007-12-01

Full Text Available Restructuring, in opinion of the experts, one of the basic ways of steady development of managing subjects in modern conditions. In clause strategy of organizational-economic restructuring of the regional market of mineral oil is considered. Concrete actions of complex restructuring of the market of mineral oil in region and the mechanism of management are resulted by reorganization of the given market.

Understanding the Environments of Emerging Markets: The Social Costs of Institutional Voids

NARCIS (Netherlands)

S.B. Rodrigues (Suzana)

2013-01-01

textabstractDuring the past decade, emerging markets have had extraordinarily high growth rates compared to developed countries. Many agree that a distinctive characteristic of emerging markets is their rhythm of growth. Over the past thirty years, emerging markets have been encouraged to shape

THE IMPLICATIONS OF LIQUIDITY CRISES IN THE CONTEXT OF EMERGING CAPITAL MARKET

OpenAIRE

Felicia Ramona Birău

2012-01-01

This article aims to highlight the implications of liquidity crises in the context of emerging capital market. Capital markets, and especially emerging capital market appear to behave notably differently during periods of liquidity crises in comparison with periods of stability. The concept of emerging capital market itself is in obvious antithesis to the idea of financial equilibrium. This particular category of capital markets is characterized in a certain measure by profound institutional,...

Price dynamics of crude oil and the regional ethylene markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Masih, Mansur; Algahtani, Ibrahim; De Mello, Lurion

2010-01-01

This paper is the first attempt to investigate: (1) is the crude oil (WTI) price significantly related to the regional ethylene prices in the Naphtha intensive ethylene markets of the Far East, North West Europe, and the Mediterranean? (2) What drives the regional ethylene prices? The paper is motivated by the recent and growing debate on the lead-lag relationship between crude oil and ethylene prices. Our findings, based on the long-run structural modelling approach of Pesaran and Shin, and subject to the limitations of the study, tend to suggest: (1) crude oil (WTI) price is cointegrated with the regional ethylene prices (2) our within-sample error-correction model results tend to indicate that although the ethylene prices in North West Europe and the Mediterranean were weakly endogenous, the Far East ethylene price was weakly exogenous both in the short and long term. These results are consistent, during most of the period under review (2000.1-2006.4) with the surge in demand for ethylene throughout the Far East, particularly in China and South Korea. However, during the post-sample forecast period as evidenced in our variance decompositions analysis, the emergence of WTI as a leading player as well, is consistent with the recent surge in WTI price (fuelled mainly, among others, by the strong hedging activities in the WTI futures/options and refining tightness) reflecting the growing importance of input cost in determining the dynamic interactions of input and product prices. (author)

A rigged market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thomas, M.

2000-01-01

The mobile rig market remains a unique sector of the global upstream oil and gas industry. Big oil is continuing to emerge blinking from the darkness of its recent cash-starved existence to bask in the glory of a resurgent oil price. But the rig sector is once again lagging behind the pace being set by operators as they open up their wallets for new or delayed exploration and production projects. This paper gives statistics on worldwide count and contracts

Market opportunities in the oil and gas industry in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shih, T.

2004-01-01

China is an emerging marketplace, with a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ranked fourth, after the United States, the European Union and Japan. Imports to China have risen from 21 per cent in 2002 to 40 per cent in 2003, with over 54 billion dollars in direct foreign investment in 2003 alone. Private car ownership is also increasing. This paper provides a market overview of China, with specific reference to increases in energy demand fuelled by the rise of energy intensive industries such as steel, aluminum, chemicals and construction. It was noted that resource-based inputs are in need, as well as high tech goods and services. Canada has committed to doubling its trade with China by 2010. Current Canadian exports to China were overviewed. The current situation in the oil and gas sector in China were outlined, as well as a forecast of expected trends. It was suggested that a rise in domestic energy demand and instability in the Middle East was causing China to seek alternative, more secure sources of oil. Major players in the oil and gas industry in China were profiled, with an overview of domestic business, as well as potential future competitors in the sector. It was concluded that opportunities for onshore and offshore exploration and pre-drilling services were a viable option for Canadian investors. Technology and consulting services were also considered to be possible areas for trade development. A list of future projects in the Chinese oil and gas sector was provided, as well as details of necessary steps for entry into the industry and advice concerning intellectual property and legal protection. tabs., figs

An economic study of palm oil marketing in Akwa Ibom state ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

However, the fluctuating trends in the production and marketing of palm oil in the State, calls for adequate economic investigation in order to enhance the potentials of the enterprise. The study covered the major markets in Akwa Ibom State, namely Uyo, Eket, Etinan, and Ikot Abasi main markets. In all, both the producers, ...

Oil and Gas Emergency Policy: Japan 2013 update

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2013-06-01

Oil remains the most significant energy source in Japan, accounting for some 45% of the country’s total primary energy supply (TPES) in 2011. Japan’s oil demand steadily decreased from 5.71 mb/d in 1997 to 4.47 mb/d in 2010. However, its oil demand increased to 4.48 mb/d in 2011 and 4.73 mb/d in 2012 due to the Great East Japan Earthquake in March 2011 and its subsequent impacts. The transport sector represented around 38% of total consumption in 2010, while the industry sector accounted for 30%. A significant proportion of the industry sector’s oil demand comes from the chemical industry. Of the 4.8 mb/d of oil imported by Japan in 2012, 3.5 mb/d consisted of crude oil, 209 kb/d of NGLs and feedstocks, and some 1.2 mb/d of refined products. About 83% of Japan’s crude oil imports in 2012 came from the Middle East. The country has 27 operational refineries with a total crude distillation capacity of around 4.5 mb/d. Japan meets its 90-day stockholding obligation to the IEA by holding government emergency stocks and by placing a minimum stockholding obligation on industry. JOGMEC’s primary role is to manage public stocks under the Oil Stockpiling Act, while industry (refineries, specified distributors and importers) is obliged to hold the equivalent of 70 days of their daily imports, sales or refinery production, based on the average of the previous 12 months. The public stocks mostly consist of crude oil, but the Administration has expanded its emergency inventory to include four categories of refined products - gasoline, kerosene, fuel oil and diesel oil. Japan held some 591 million barrels (mb) of oil stocks at the end of January 2013, equating to 166 days of 2011 net-imports (92 days of government stocks and 74 days of industry stocks). Around 72% of total stocks were held in the form of crude oil. Japan has consistently met its minimum IEA stockholding obligation. The share of natural gas in the country’s TPES increased significantly from 17% in 2010

Do oil shocks predict economic policy uncertainty?

Science.gov (United States)

Rehman, Mobeen Ur

2018-05-01

Oil price fluctuations have influential role in global economic policies for developed as well as emerging countries. I investigate the role of international oil prices disintegrated into structural (i) oil supply shock, (ii) aggregate demand shock and (iii) oil market specific demand shocks, based on the work of Kilian (2009) using structural VAR framework on economic policies uncertainty of sampled markets. Economic policy uncertainty, due to its non-linear behavior is modeled in a regime switching framework with disintegrated structural oil shocks. Our results highlight that Indian, Spain and Japanese economic policy uncertainty responds to the global oil price shocks, however aggregate demand shocks fail to induce any change. Oil specific demand shocks are significant only for China and India in high volatility state.

Crude oil price shocks and stock returns. Evidence from Turkish stock market under global liquidity conditions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Berk, Istemi [Koeln Univ. (Germany). Energiewirtschaftliches Inst.; Aydogan, Berna [Izmir Univ. of Economics (Turkey). Dept. of International Trade and Finance

2012-09-15

The purpose of this study is to investigate the impacts of crude oil price variations on the Turkish stock market returns. We have employed vector autoregression (V AR) model using daily observations of Brent crude oil prices and Istanbul Stock Exchange National Index (ISE- 1 00) returns for the period between January 2, 1990 and November 1, 2011. We have also tested the relationship between oil prices and stock market returns under global liquidity conditions by incorporating a liquidity proxy variable, Chicago Board of Exchange's (CBOE) S and P 500 market volatility index (VIX), into the model. Variance decomposition test results suggest little empirical evidence that crude oil price shocks have been rationally evaluated in the Turkish stock market. Rather, it was global liquidity conditions that were found to account for the greatest amount of variation in stock market returns.

Market analysis of palm oil%棕榈油市场分析

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

沙克

2009-01-01

分析了2008年度的棕榈油市场发展状况,对2009年度的棕榈油市场进行了展望和预测.同时,对全球棕榈油库存及库存使用比以及在全球贸易中所占比例进行了分析.%Palm oil market in 2008 was introduced, and the prospect on the market of palm oil in 2009 was also made in this paper. At the same time, global palm oil inventory situation and it global trade stares were also analyzed.

Time-varying predictability in crude-oil markets: the case of GCC countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

El Hedi Arouri, Mohamed; Thanh Huong Dinh; Duc Khuong Nguyen

2010-01-01

This paper uses a time-varying parameter model with generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity effects to examine the dynamic behavior of crude-oil prices for the period February 7, 1997-January 8, 2010. Using data from four countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council, we find evidence of short-term predictability in oil-price changes over time, except for several short sub-periods. However, the hypothesis of convergence towards weak-form informational efficiency is rejected for all markets. In addition, we explore the possibility of structural breaks in the time-paths of the estimated predictability indices and detect only one breakpoint, for the oil markets in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Our empirical results therefore call for new empirical research to further gauge the predictability characteristics and the determinants of oil-price changes.

Structural problems of the heating oil economy pose a challenge to natural gas marketing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zeller, U.

1995-01-01

The Swiss heating market is characterised by hard crowding-out competition. New energy carriers are entering the market while at the same time the demand declines. Natural gas is conquering one field of application after another and since years has steadily been increasing its share of the market. The corresponding loss of territory on the part of heating oil dealers has until now not been so tangible because it was compensated by a phase of growing demand during the past few years. If the current trend continues, then overcapacities in heat distribution and energy supply are to be expected for the future. The market will become especially difficult for heating oil dealers, as their decreasing overall share in the market will no longer be compensated by a growth in market volume, their former crutch for keeping up scales. The fight for market shares is therefore expected to become a great deal harder and have a direct impact on the natural gas economy. Commissioned by the Swiss gas industry, the Research Institute for Trade and Sales of St. Gallen University has made a study of the Swiss heating oil market. (orig.) [de

Models of the oil market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cremer, J.; Salehi-Isfahani, D.

1991-01-01

Economists have proposed a large variety of models of the oil market which differ in their methodology and in the questions they answer. This book integrates them and emphasizes the relationships between the choice of economic tools and the practical consequences of the analysis. After history of the events of the last twenty years, the authors survey the informal descriptions written by policy oriented analysts. Chapters on quantitative models follow, one stressing simulations and the other the work of theorists. Finally, a discussion of econometric work precedes a survey of open questions

Outlook for international oil markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zanoyan, V; French, M

1984-01-01

Despite increased hostilities in the Persian Gulf, there has been a slack in both petroleum product and crude markets and concern over the possibility of a wave of refinery bankruptcies. The short-term outlook recognizes that OPEC problems are not permanent. Demand is not expected to return to pre-1979 levels, and demand growth will not have an equal distribution among OPEC members. Mid-term projections are for real oil prices to be about 12% below 1982 levels, with the decline continuing through 1986. The only significant demand expansion will occur in the industrial sectors of the developing countries due to conservation efforts and fuel substitution that will continue to reduce petroleum's share of total energy consumed by developed countries. Consumption in the transport sector will probably remain at current levels. Oil production in Western countries should peak and then decline during the 1980s, with non-OPEC developing countries filling some of the demand gap and OPEC prices going up instead of production. 6 tables.

High freight rates hinder oil markets' return to equilibrium

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon

2005-01-01

Hurricane damage to refineries in the US has created shortages of refined products there, boosting imports and sending freight rates across the Atlantic to record levels. The situation was made worse for a time by a strike at France's main oil terminals in the Mediterranean, which prevented some oil tankers from being rapidly redeployed to routes across the Atlantic. Worldscale (WS) rates for routes from the UK and Europe to the US Atlantic and Gulf Coasts rose well above WS500 for clean tonnage during October. High rates were nevertheless not simply confined to product tankers crossing the Atlantic. Rates for crude tankers to the US have also risen, and tightness has begun to appear in some other markets as well. The net result has been to slow down the movement of oil from regions of surplus to those of scarcity, depressing prices in the former and keeping them at high levels in the latter. Atlantic tanker markets look like remaining tight for the rest of the year and perhaps beyond. (author)

"Forecasting Volatility and Spillovers in Crude Oil Spot, Forward and Futures Markets"

OpenAIRE

Chia-Lin Chang; Michael McAleer; Roengchai Tansuchat

2009-01-01

Crude oil price volatility has been analyzed extensively for organized spot, forward and futures markets for well over a decade, and is crucial for forecasting volatility and Value-at- Risk (VaR). There are four major benchmarks in the international oil market, namely West Texas Intermediate (USA), Brent (North Sea), Dubai/Oman (Middle East), and Tapis (Asia- Pacific), which are likely to be highly correlated. This paper analyses the volatility spillover effects across and within the four mar...

Globalization and innovation in emerging markets

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Gorodnichenko, Y.; Švejnar, Jan; Terrell, K.

-, č. 14481 (2008), s. 1-48 ISSN N Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : globalization * innovation * emerging markets Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.nber.org/papers/w14481.pdf

Derivative markets, speculation and oil prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Babusiaux, D.; Lasserre, F.; Pierru, A.

2010-01-01

Recent movements in oil prices have been ascribed by a number of analysts and political leaders not to market fundamentals but to the speculative positions taken by financial investors in derivatives markets. Various economists including Nobel Prize Paul Krugman believe however that the constitution of stocks is a necessary element for speculation, a feature that was not very evident during the sudden price increase in 2008; but these points of view are not entirely incompatible. Various explanations can be put forward, among which the most important is demand inertia. On the very short run, demand price elasticity is significantly lower than that usually calculated for the short term, which can significantly reduce the impact - on stocks - of a temporary price increase provoked by financial investors' behavior. (authors)

Pipeline capacity and heavy oil markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scott, G.R.

1993-01-01

Aspects of transporting heavy crude to markets from Canadian sources are discussed, with reference to pipeline expansion, western Canadian crude supply, and exports to various Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADDs) in the USA. Pipeline expansions have been proposed by Interprovincial Pipeline, Trans Mountain Pipeline, Rangeland, and Wascana, and some of these proposals are in the review stage. Western Canadian crude supply is expected to peak at 1.9 million bbl/d in 1996. An increase in heavy crude supply is expected but this increase will not be sufficient to offset a decline in light crude supply. Adequate pipeline capacity should exist with the Interprovincial expansion volume of 170,000 bbl/d and the Trans Mountain expansion of 38,000 bbl/d forecast to be in place by 1995. Canadian crude exports to the USA have steadily increased since 1989, and heavy crude exports have grown an average of 20,000 bbl/d each year. In PADD Region IV, oil production is declining and ca 20,000 bbl/d of heavy crude will be needed by the year 2000; additional pipeline capacity will be required. In PADD Region II, Canadian heavy crude imports are ca 390,000 bbl/d and further market opportunities exist, after the Interprovincial expansion is complete. When the various combinations of possible pipeline expansions or reversals are considered, a range of heavy crude near-term growth potentials is obtained in which Canadian heavy oil would displace offshore heavy oil supplied to USA refineries. This potential is seen to range from 35,000 bbl/d to 200,000 bbl/d. 7 refs., 20 figs., 3 tabs

World oil prices, precious metal prices and macroeconomy in Turkey

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soytas, Ugur; Sari, Ramazan; Hammoudeh, Shawkat; Hacihasanoglu, Erk

2009-01-01

We examine the long- and short-run transmissions of information between the world oil price, Turkish interest rate, Turkish lira-US dollar exchange rate, and domestic spot gold and silver price. We find that the world oil price has no predictive power of the precious metal prices, the interest rate or the exchange rate market in Turkey. The results also show that the Turkish spot precious metals, exchange rate and bond markets do not also provide information that would help improve the forecasts of world oil prices in the long run. The findings suggest that domestic gold is also considered a safe haven in Turkey during devaluation of the Turkish lira, as it is globally. It is interesting to note that there does not seem to be any significant influence of developments in the world oil markets on Turkish markets in the short run either. However, transitory positive initial impacts of innovations in oil prices on gold and silver markets are observed. The short-run price transmissions between the world oil market and the Turkish precious metal markets have implications for policy makers in emerging markets and both local and global investors in the precious metals market and the oil market.

Market study on the oil and petroleum industry in Mexico

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-01-01

The historical background of the Mexican petroleum industry is outlined and an overview is presented of the state of the Mexican economic environment. The Mexican market for oil and gas field equipment is estimated, with a focus on the oil monopoly PEMEX. The total imports of oil and gas field equipment are estimated to increase to US$280.4 million in 1992, and the most important foreign suppliers are led by the USA, which has a 72% share. Canadian exports of oil and gas field equipment have remained fairly stable during the last few years at $2.4-2.7 million. In general, prospects for Canadian suppliers to the Mexican market are best in the area of technologically sophisticated equipment. An end-user profile of PEMEX is presented, noting that it is the largest enterprise in Latin America and had $14.2 billion in sales in 1989. Equipment imported by PEMEX includes seamless steel pipe, drilling tools, gate and control valves, electric motors, processing and control equipment, steam and gas turbines, and telecommunications equipment. PEMEX activities in 1989 are reviewed, including those in the petrochemical sector, and projected activities are described. Major efforts planned by PEMEX include expansion of petrochemical production. Access to the Mexican market is discussed in terms of PEMEX purchasing policy, payment system, import requirements, the need for using a supplier agent, and use of the metric system and other standards. 6 figs., 2 tabs

Market Brief : Turkey oil and gas pipelines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-08-01

This report presented some quick facts about oil and gas pipelines in Turkey and presented opportunities for trade. The key players and customers in the oil and gas sector were described along with an export check list. Turkey is looking into becoming an energy bridge between oil and gas producing countries in the Middle East, Central Asia and Europe. The oil and gas sectors are dominated by the Turkish Petroleum Corporation, a public enterprise dealing with exploration and production, and the State Pipeline Corporation which deals with energy transmission. They are also the key buyers of oil and gas equipment in Turkey. There are several pipelines connecting countries bordering the Caspian Sea. Opportunities exist in the areas of engineering consulting as well as contracting services for oil and gas pipeline transmission and distribution. Other opportunities lie in the area of pipeline construction, rehabilitation, materials, equipment, installation, and supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems. Currently, the major players are suppliers from Italy, Germany, France, United States and Japan. Turkey has no trade barriers and imported equipment and materials are not subjected to any restriction. The oil and gas market in Turkey expected in increase by an average annual growth rate of 15 per cent from 2001 to 2003. A brief description of pipeline projects in Turkey was presented in this report along with a list of key contacts and support services. 25 refs., 1 append

Efficient Market Hypothesis: Some Evidences from Emerging European Forex Markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anoop S Kumar

2014-06-01

Full Text Available This study attempts to analyze the presence of weak form efficiency in the forex markets of a set of select European emerging markets namely Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia and Slovenia using the monthly NEER data ranging from jan-1994 to Dec-2013. We employ a two step comprehensive methodology where in the first place we test for weak form efficiency using a family of individual and joint variance ratio tests. The results show that while the markets of Croatia, Czech Republic and Bulgaria may be weak form efficient at a shorter lag, the other six markets are not informationally efficient. In the next stage, we estimate a measure of relative efficiency to show the extent to which a market is weak-form inefficient. From the results, it is found that the forex markets of Croatia, Czech Republic and Bulgaria are least weak form inefficient compared to others. The findings of the study are of relevance as it shows that even after roughly two decades of free market economic policies, majority of the forex markets in the area remains informationally inefficient.

Dynamics of heating oil market prices in Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Indjehagopian, J.P.; Lantz, F.; Simon, V.

2000-01-01

This paper concerns the German and French heating oil market and attempts to establish long- and short-term relationships between German and French monthly heating oil prices in dollars, the Rotterdam spot price for the same product and the DM/US$ and FF/US$ exchange rates during the period from January 1987 to December 1997. To model the market over the period under consideration, incorporating the Gulf War, we have used conventional unit root tests and sequential tests allowing structural changes. Long-term relationships, with shifts in regime detected by cointegration tests taking structural breaks into consideration, are estimated. The short-term dynamics defined by a vector error correction (VEC) mechanism is derived in a classic manner when in presence of a cointegrated VAR system. The econometric results obtained are commented on from an economic point of view. Weak exogeneity tests are performed and the conditional VEC model is deduced, enabling measurement of the instantaneous impact of variations in weakly exogenous exchange rates on variations in heating oil prices in Germany and France. Lastly, a study is made of the asymmetric reaction of domestic prices to positive and negative variations in exchange rates and the Rotterdam spot quotation. 25 refs

The Impact of United States Monetary Policy in the Crude Oil futures market

Science.gov (United States)

Padilla-Padilla, Fernando M.

This research examines the empirical impact the United States monetary policy, through the federal fund interest rate, has on the volatility in the crude oil price in the futures market. Prior research has shown how macroeconomic events and variables have impacted different financial markets within short and long--term movements. After testing and decomposing the variables, the two stationary time series were analyzed using a Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR). The empirical evidence shows, with statistical significance, a direct relationship when explaining crude oil prices as function of fed fund rates (t-1) and an indirect relationship when explained as a function of fed fund rates (t-2). These results partially address the literature review lacunas within the topic of the existing implication monetary policy has within the crude oil futures market.

The world oil market is not one great pool: A reply to Rodriguez and Williams

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weiner, R.J.

1993-01-01

In a paper by Rodriguez and Williams (Energy Studies Review, 1993), the case for a single-pool world oil market is put forward. Criticisms of the assumptions and conclusions are offered. To counter the paper's assumption that antitrust is the relevant metric for measuring the extent of geographic markets, it is argued that for energy security policy decisions, it is the economic market which matters. The paper does show that the world oil market is indeed unified in the long run, but this is not relevant to the short term, the relevant time-frame for energy security decisions. The paper's choice of spot market data for its cointegration analysis is also criticized by using several examples of pricing decisions that would not make sense in a unified world market but which do make sense in a regionalized market. It is also unclear how representative spot prices are of the oil market. Finally, the conclusions of the paper that favor policies focusing on secure vs insecure import sources and supplier diversification are seen as unsupported by the paper's statistical findings. 15 refs

Produced water: Market and global trends - oil production - water production - choice of technology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Robertson, Steve

2006-01-01

The presentation discusses various aspects of the world oil production, the energy demand, the future oil supply, the oil prices and the production growth. Some problems with produced water are also discussed as well as aspects of the market for produced water technology (tk)

Emerging Market Multinational Companies and Internationalization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Bo Bernhard; Estrin, Saul; Nielsen, Sabina

2014-01-01

This paper furthers our understanding of the role of contextual conditions influencing internationalization of emerging market multinational companies (EMNCs). We use resource-based, industrial organization, and economic development theories to develop a multilevel theoretical framework...

Jump dynamics and volatility: Oil and the stock markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chiou, Jer-Shiou; Lee, Yen-Hsien

2009-01-01

Our study distinguishes itself from the prior studies within the oil and financial literature by not only examining the asymmetric effects of oil prices on stock returns, but also exploring the importance of structure changes in this dependency relationship. We retrieve daily data on S and P 500 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil transactions covering the period from 1 January 1992 to 7 November 2006, and then transform the available data into daily returns. In contrast to the extant literature, in this study, consideration of expected, unexpected and negative unexpected oil price fluctuations is incorporated into the model of stock returns; we also focus on the ways in which oil price volatility, as opposed to general macroeconomic variables, can influence the stock market. We go on to implement the ARJI (Autoregressive Conditional Jump Intensity) model with structure changes, from which we conclude that high fluctuations in oil prices have asymmetric unexpected impacts on S and P 500 returns. (author)

Panorama 2012 - The oil market in 2011 and forward trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maisonnier, Guy

2012-02-01

Geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties were the two forces that drove oil market trends in 2011. Revolutions in North Africa pushed the price of Brent crude to a record high of $111 bbl on average, despite a slowdown in the rate of global economic growth. 2012 could be fairly similar, with further economic decline and high oil prices ($100+) if the geopolitical context remains under strain. Going forward, an oil price that remains consistently above $100 bbl presents itself as an increasingly credible scenario. (author)

Short-term predictability of crude oil markets: A detrended fluctuation analysis approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose; Alvarez, Jesus; Rodriguez, Eduardo

2008-01-01

This paper analyzes the auto-correlations of international crude oil prices on the basis of the estimation of the Hurst exponent dynamics for returns over the period from 1987 to 2007. In doing so, a model-free statistical approach - detrended fluctuation analysis - that reduces the effects of non-stationary market trends and focuses on the intrinsic auto-correlation structure of market fluctuations over different time horizons, is used. Tests for time variations of the Hurst exponent indicate that over long horizons the crude oil market is consistent with the efficient market hypothesis. However, meaningful auto-correlations cannot be excluded for time horizons smaller than one month where the Hurst exponent manifests cyclic, non-periodic dynamics. This means that the market exhibits a time-varying short-term inefficient behavior that becomes efficient in the long term. The proposed methodology and its findings are put in perspective with previous studies and results. (author)

The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Price Shocks on the Chinese Stock Market: Evidence from a Quantile Impulse Response Perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Huiming Zhu

2016-08-01

Full Text Available This paper uses a quantile impulse response approach to investigate the impact of oil price shocks on Chinese stock returns. This process allows us to uncover asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on stock market returns by taking into account the different quantiles of oil price shocks. Our results show that the responses of Chinese stock market returns to oil price shocks differ greatly, depending on whether the oil and stock market is in a bust or boom state and whether the shock is driven by demand or supply. The impacts of oil price shocks on Chinese stock returns present asymmetric features. In particular during a bust phase, oil supply and demand shocks significantly depress stock market returns, while during a boom period, the aggregate demand shock enhances stock market returns. These results suggest some important implications for investors and decision makers.

Unbiasedness and time varying risk premia in the crude oil futures market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moosa, I.A.; Al-Loughani, N.E.

1994-01-01

This paper presents some empirical evidence on market efficiency and unbiasedness in the crude oil futures market and some related issues. On the basis of monthly observations on spot and futures prices of the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, several tests are carried out on the relevant hypotheses. The evidence suggests that futures prices are neither unbiased nor efficient forecasters of spot prices. Furthermore, a GARCH-M(1,1) model reveals the existence of a time varying risk premium. (author)

Efficient Market Hypothesis: Some Evidences from Emerging European Forex Markets

OpenAIRE

Anoop S Kumar; Bandi Kamaiah

2014-01-01

This study attempts to analyze the presence of weak form efficiency in the forex markets of a set of select European emerging markets namely Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia and Slovenia using the monthly NEER data ranging from jan-1994 to Dec-2013. We employ a two step comprehensive methodology where in the first place we test for weak form efficiency using a family of individual and joint variance ratio tests. The results show that while the marke...

New paradigm for drug developments--from emerging market statistical perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Quan, Hui; Chen, Xun; Zhang, Ji; Zhao, Peng-Liang

2013-11-01

Paradigm for new drug development has changed dramatically over the last decade. Even though new technology increases efficiency in many aspects, partially due to much more stringent regulatory requirements, it actually now takes longer and costs more to develop a new drug. To deal with challenge, some initiatives are taken by the pharmaceutical industry. These initiatives include exploring emerging markets, conducting global trials and building research and development centers in emerging markets to curb spending. It is particularly the current trend that major pharmaceutical companies offshore a part of their biostatistical support to China. In this paper, we first discuss the skill set for trial statisticians in the new era. We then elaborate on some of the approaches for acquiring statistical talent and capacity in general, particularly in emerging markets. We also make some recommendations on the use of the PDUFA strategy and collaborations among industry, health authority and academia from emerging market statistical perspective. © 2013.

The Canadian oil market: Annual review for 1993

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-07-01

An overview is provided of the salient features of the Canadian oil market for 1993. This is the first annual version of the review; previous reviews (1986 to March 1993) were published quarterly. Statistics and discussion are given for refined petroleum product demand, drilling and exploration activity, crude oil supply and disposition, major oil pipelines, refinery activity, crude oil and petroleum product stocks, crude oil prices, and refined petroleum product prices. In 1993, demand for refined products continued to slowly recover against a background of generally stable prices. Drilling activity nearly doubled from 1992, due to such factors as royalty relief, rising demand, improved prices, and lower interest rates. Crude oil production rose nearly 10% over the last two years, with most of the rise occurring in 1993, and imports in 1993 reached their highest level in 15 years. Deliveries of crude to Canadian refineries rose in almost all regions. Half of Canadian crude production was exported, and the 1993 oil trade surplus reached a record $3.4 billion. Monthly Interprovincial PipeLines apportionment levels reached record highs in 1993. Refinery rationalization continued and capacity fell 6%, raising average refinery utilization to 84%. The price of Canadian sweet crude declined 7% to a five-year low. 45 figs., 9 tabs

The role of market fundamentals and speculation in recent price changes for crude oil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaufmann, Robert K.

2011-01-01

I hypothesize that the price spike and collapse of 2007-2008 are driven by both changes in both market fundamentals and speculative pressures. Contrary to arguments for a demand shock, I hypothesize that prices rise sharply in 2007-2008 because ongoing growth in Chinese oil demand runs into a sudden and unexpected halt to a decade long increase in non-OPEC production. This caused a loss of OPEC spare capacity because increased demand for OPEC production runs ahead of increases in OPEC capacity. These changes are reinforced by speculative expectations. Although difficult to measure directly, I argue for the role of speculation based on the following: (1) a significant increase in private US crude oil inventories since 2004; (2) repeated and extended break-downs (starting in 2004) in the cointegrating relationship between spot and far month future prices that are inconsistent with the law of one price and arbitrage opportunities; and (3) statistical and predictive failures by an econometric model of oil prices that is based on market fundamentals. These changes are related to the behavior and impact of noise traders on asset prices to sketch mechanisms by which speculative expectations can affect crude oil prices. - Research Highlights: → The 2007-2009 spike and collapse in oil prices is caused by a combination of market fundamentals and speculative expectations. → The rise is caused by an unexpected hiatus in non-OPEC oil production, not a sudden increase in demand. → The role of speculation is suggested by an increase in oil inventories, which reverses a twenty year period of declines, a decoupling between spot and futures prices, which violates the law of one price, and a breakdown of empirical models of oil prices based solely on market fundamentals. → Speculative expectations affect oil prices via noise traders, who create a risk that deters rational arbitrageurs from betting against them.

Integration of Manufacturing and Development in Emerging Markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Søberg, Peder Veng; Wæhrens, Brian Vejrum

2011-01-01

The paper investigates the problems related to functional integration between manufacturing activities and R&D activities in emerging markets within multinational companies. A framework to this end is developed and illustrated in relation to four cases from multinational companies, which have...... established R&D and manufacturing in China or India. The findings point to the importance of contingencies such as industrial clock speed, technological complexity, as well as the extent to which local adaptation is needed. Keywords: Co-location, Emerging markets, Functional integration, Manufacturing, R&D....

Essays on predictability of emerging markets growth and financial performance

OpenAIRE

Banegas, Maria Ayelen

2011-01-01

This dissertation seeks to better understand the underlying factors driving financial performance and economic activity in international markets. The first chapter "Predictability of Growth in Emerging Markets: Information in Financial Aggregates" tests for predictability of output growth in a panel of twenty-two emerging market economies. I use pooled panel data methods that control for endogeneity and persistence in the predictor variables to test the predictive power of a large set of fina...

Emerging Market Multinational Companies and Internationalization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Estrin, Saul; Nielsen, Bo B.; Nielsen, Sabina

2017-01-01

We develop a multilevel theoretical framework for investigating the role of home country urbanization for emerging market multinational companies' (EMNCs) international expansion. We propose that more urbanized home environments directly increase EMNC's proclivity to internationalize and moderate...

Globalisation and private infrastructure investments in emerging markets

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Chege, L

2004-11-01

Full Text Available benefit, it is argued that globalisation has brought a mixed basket of hope and disillusionment to emerging markets. On the one hand, there is the euphoria that comes with increased private capital inflows and market access, and on the other...

The Spanish gasoline market: From ceiling regulation to open market pricing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Contin, I.; Correlje, A.; Huerta, E.

1999-01-01

This paper examines the evolution of the Spanish gasoline market from the abolition of the state oil monopoly (January 1993) to complete liberalization (October 1998). With the restructuring of the Spanish oil sector during the 1980s and early 1990s, a highly concentrated oligopoly emerged in the automotive fuels market. A system of price ceilings replaced the state administered prices in July 1990. Since then, new domestic and foreign operators have entered the market, particularly along the coast, near import terminals. Prices went up and then declined. These developments can be explained by an interplay of factors such as: the gradual decline in co-operation among the Spanish firms; the loss of market share of the largest of these, Repsol; the entry of independent operators and supermarkets; and the impact of the ceiling price system. By mid-1998 this system was abolished as the government considered it an impediment to further market liberalization. However, some crucial barriers to the entry of new suppliers remain

Vicissitudes in the Hong Kong oil market, 1980-97

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chow, L.-H.

2000-01-01

Hong Kong, devoid of natural resources, has to import all the energy it consumes. Up to 1981, oil accounted for almost 100 per cent of the total primary energy requirement, of which about 59 per cent was used to generate electricity. Starting in 1982, the electricity sector switched to coal generation, leading to plummeting oil consumption. The conversion process was essentially completed by 1988. Local sales of oil products declined from 5.790 million kilolitres in 1981 to 3.470m kl in 1987, but climbed back to 5.157m kl in 1997; oil consumption stagnated between 1981 and 1997. This paper analyses the fluctuations in oil consumption during the period, covering use by the utility and non-utility sectors. Next, it deals with consumption of, and the factors involved in, the six major oil products, i.e. fuel oil, diesel, gasoline, liquefied petroleum gas, kerosene and jet fuel. Interestingly, bunker sales, including air and sea transport, rose noticeably during these years, partly offsetting the effect of slumping oil sales to the power plants and helping boost total oil demand in the 1990s. Lastly, a glimpse into the future of the Hong Kong oil market is taken. (author)

The oil and gas equipment and services market in Nigeria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2003-01-01

The oil and gas market in Nigeria is being expanded by the Nigerian government over the 2003-2010 period through increased exploration and production (E and P) in new areas. Other measures being implemented are the improvements of structural flaws that hamper industry growth, the modernization of the weak downstream sector, and attempts to attract foreign investment and technologies required for petroleum development. In 2001, it was estimated that the market for oil and gas equipment in Nigeria was approximately 1.03 billion dollars, and is expected to reach 1.15 billion dollars in 2002. In deep-sea areas, major offshore E and P projects are being planned by large oil multinationals. The implementation of several gas-related E and P operations and major liquefied natural gas (LNG) and gas-to-liquid (GTL) projects are being supported by the government of Nigeria to develop the natural gas sector. Onshore and offshore exploration, surveying and geophysical prospecting, drilling equipment, facilities maintenance, deepwater E and P, equipment for LNG/GTL facilities, enhanced recovery equipment and services, gas re-injection technology, pipelines, and the refinery sector are all areas where Canadian equipment and service suppliers could benefit from opportunities in Nigeria. One of the most prominent foreign player in the Nigerian market is Royal Dutch Shell. As far as the offshore deepwater E and P sub-sector, the three major players are Shell, ChevronTexaco, and ExxonMobil. The Nigerian government advocate in upstream and downstream oil industries in the country is Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC). The primary domestic end-users of oil and gas equipment and services are member companies of the Nigerian Association of Indigenous Petroleum Exploration Companies (NAIPEC). Canadian companies are encouraged to form joint venture partnerships in oil and gas projects, as foreign majors operating in Nigeria tend to rely on the skills and expertise of foreign

Financial development and poverty reduction in emerging market economies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bayar Yılmaz

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Poverty reduction is one of the key challenges in the globalized world. This study investigates the relationship between financial development and poverty reduction in emerging market economies during the period 1993- 2012. The Carrión-i-Silvestre, del Barrio-Castro, and López-Bazo (2005 panel unit root test and the Basher and Westerlund (2009 cointegration test was applied considering the cross-sectional dependence and multiple structural breaks in the study period. The findings indicated that financial development, including banking sector development and stock market development, had a significant positive impact on poverty reduction in emerging market economies.

Modelling and testing volatility spillovers in oil and financial markets for USA, UK and China

OpenAIRE

Chang, Chia-Lin; McAleer, Michael; Tian, Jiarong

2016-01-01

textabstractThe primary purpose of the paper is to analyze the conditional correlations, conditional covariances, and co-volatility spillovers between international crude oil and associated financial markets. The paper investigates co-volatility spillovers (namely, the delayed effect of a returns shock in one physical or financial asset on the subsequent volatility or co-volatility in another physical or financial asset) between the oil and financial markets. The oil industry has four major r...

An analysis of factors affecting price volatility of the US oil market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, C.W.; Hwang, M.J.; Huang, B.N.

2002-01-01

This paper studies the price volatility of the crude oil market by examining the market structure of OPEC, the stable and unstable demand structure, and related elasticity of demand. In particular, the impacts of prosperity and recession of the world economy and the resulting demand shift on crude oil price are investigated. The error correction model is used to estimate the demand relations and related elasticity. The income effect on demand functions is evaluated to shed light on future prices. A simulation of potential oil prices under different scenarios on a cut of one million barrels per day by OPEC is evaluated. From our simulation, given the 4% cut in OPEC production, the oil price is expected to increase unless the recession is severe. The magnitude and scope of a price hike would be diminished if non-OPEC or domestic production were greatly expanded

Price volatility, hedging and variable risk premium in the crude oil market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahmad Jalali-Naini; Maryam Kazemi Manesh

2006-01-01

The crude oil price exhibits a high degree of volatility which varies significantly over time. Such characteristics imply that the oil market is a promising area for testing volatility models. Testing and predicting volatility using ARCH and GARCH models have grown in the literature. A useful application of the volatility models is in the formulation of hedging strategies. In this paper we compare the optimal hedge ratio for the crude oil using the classical minimum risk approach and use ARCH to incorporate the effect of heteroskedasticity in the residuals on the hedge ratio. In addition, we test for the existence of a variable risk premium in the crude oil market. We find that, assuming rational expectations, there is a non-zero risk premium. We test for the variability of the risk premia and find evidence in its support when we employed a multivariate GARCH model. (author)

World oil and gas markets in 2005

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-01-01

In front of insufficient production capacities, the petroleum and gas spot prices have won historical records in 2005. This paper analyzes this situation using the highlights of this exceptional year and concerning the producing countries (political situation), the oil and gas markets (exchange rates, demand, production capacity), the European quotations of petroleum products (automotive and domestic fuels), and the prices of petroleum products in France. (J.S.)

The evolution of oil markets: trading instruments and their role in price formation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roeber, J.

1993-01-01

The workings of the modern oil market are recondite, understood - if at all - mainly by specialists. By comparison with explanations of the currency markets and other financial mechanisms the literature is sparse. There are plenty of studies that analyse the economics of the oil business, but few that explain its inner workings. This study will help to fill the gap. It is of value for three main reasons. First, it offers an explanation by an acknowledged expert of a complex subject in terms which non-experts will be able to understand. Second, it provides practitioners in the trade with some valuable insights into deficiencies in the present market mechanisms which could with advantage be rectified. The market is bound to continue to evolve. Third, it points to some important policy conclusions, particularly about what is, and is not, possible in times of crisis. This study reinforces the view that the modern oil business is far too complex, fragmented and international to be subjected to old-style crisis management. (author)

Early warning model based on correlated networks in global crude oil markets

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Jia-Wei; Xie, Wen-Jie; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang

2018-01-01

Applying network tools on predicting and warning the systemic risks provides a novel avenue to manage risks in financial markets. Here, we construct a series of global crude oil correlated networks based on the historical 57 oil prices covering a period from 1993 to 2012. Two systemic risk indicators are constructed based on the density and modularity of correlated networks. The local maximums of the risk indicators are found to have the ability to predict the trends of oil prices. In our sample periods, the indicator based on the network density sends five signals and the indicator based on the modularity index sends four signals. The four signals sent by both indicators are able to warn the drop of future oil prices and the signal only sent by the network density is followed by a huge rise of oil prices. Our results deepen the application of network measures on building early warning models of systemic risks and can be applied to predict the trends of future prices in financial markets.

The shift in US oil demand and its impact on OPEC's market share

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jabir, I.

2001-01-01

Tremendous political pressure is being exerted on the US government by different political parties to diversify its sources of foreign oil supplies by switching from the reliance on OPEC's oil to that originating from non-OPEC nations. Without a doubt, such a shift would adversely impact the market share of some OPEC members, particularly Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Nigeria. These countries should therefore consider seriously the negative impact of this scenario and consequently formulate individual or joint production policies aiming at protecting their oil market share. To help OPEC achieve this objective, there is a need to estimate the demand function of US oil imports. This paper proffers an estimate of such a function, taking into account, among other variables, the impact of US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)

Globalization and innovation in emerging markets

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Gorodnichenko, Y.; Švejnar, Jan; Terrell, K.

-, č. 76 (2008), s. 1-39 ISSN N Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : globalization * innovation * emerging markets Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/61188/1/IPC-working-paper-076-GorodnichenkoSvejnarTerrell.pdf

The dynamic linkages between crude oil and natural gas markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Batten, Jonathan A.; Ciner, Cetin; Lucey, Brian M.

2017-01-01